PiRate Ratings 2019 National Championship Preview

PiRate Ratings

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Virginia	120.1	0.0	Texas Tech	120.2	-0.1

TV Information

Tip Time: 9:20 PM Eastern Daylight

Network: CBS

Announce Team:

Play by Play: Jim Nantz 

Analysts: Bill Raftery and Grant Hill

Sideline Reporter: Tracy Wolfson

 

Bracketnomics Breakdown

Championship Game	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Virginia	60.55	11.6	29.7	75.2	12.7	15.5	10.0
Texas Tech	60.20	10.0	26.5	72.5	15.9	19.9	3.3

Strength of Schedule: This is basically even, so all other stats need not be adjusted.

True Shooting Percentage Margin: Virginia enjoys a tiny advantage, but not anything that can be convincing.  Both teams excel in forcing opponents to take bad shots or hurry them as the shot clock expires.  With both teams playing the Pack-Line Defense, it appears that the number of possessions per team will be quite low, as low as 60 per side, and with both teams stronger on the defensive end than on the offensive end, it would not be shocking if both teams scored less than a point per possession.

R+T Rating: This is where Virginia has the edge, thanks to better overall rebounding, avoiding mistakes, and picking up an occasional big steal.  Texas Tech’s 3.3 R+T is one of the lowest ever to make the Final Four, much less the Championship Game.

Rebounding Margin: Virginia is a better offensive rebounding team, but Texas Tech enjoys an equal advantage on the defensive glass, so this should be an even match.

Turnover Margin: Texas Tech forces turnovers on one out of every five possessions, while Virginia commits turnovers on one out of every eight possessions.  The Cavaliers usually commit more than their norm against teams that harass and sometimes overplay on defense, but they still manage to win these games.

Prediction: Experts and pundits never believed a team that runs the Pack-Line defense could win a national title, but since both championship game participants use this defense, it is guaranteed to win a national championship this year.

The raw numbers would have us suspect that 55 points might be enough to win this game, but something tells us that since these teams practice against a similar defense all the time, and Tony Bennett and Chris Beard know where their offenses can exploit each other’s defenses, that these teams could both top 60 points in this game.

There have been seven National Championship Games that have gone to overtime since the tournament began in 1939.  All of our ratings lead us to believe that this game could stay close the entire night.

Both teams have short benches, as Virginia played just seven players against Auburn, and Texas Tech used just eight players in their win over Michigan St.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Virginia 64  Texas Tech 60

PiRate Ratings 2019 Final Four Preview

PiRate Ratings

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Virginia	120.3	0.0	Auburn	116.8	3.5
Michigan St.	121.2	0.0	Texas Tech	119.7	1.5

 

 

Schedule

All Times Eastern Daylight

Team	Team	TIME (EDT)	TV	LOCATION
Auburn	Virginia	6:09 PM	CBS	Minneapolis
Texas Tech	Michigan St.	8:49 PM	CBS	Minneapolis

 

Bracketnomics

Note–These comparisons are totally unrelated to the PiRate Ratings above.  This system is only used for the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia vs. Auburn

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Virginia	60.22	11.7	30.2	75.0	12.7	15.7	10.6
Auburn	60.67	2.2	31.9	67.8	14.4	21.5	2.3

Strength of schedule is even, so the remaining stats can be weighted equally without handicap.  Virginia has a large advantage in both true shooting % margin and R+T Rating.  The rebounding rates in this game should allow Virginia to overcome the extra turnovers they will commit against Auburn’s defense.  Virginia faced teams with similar defenses this year, committed more turnovers than their norm while not forcing many, and yet still won.  Their losses to Duke came about because the Blue Devils could neutralize their inside muscle.  Auburn cannot do this, especially one big man down.

Prediction: Virginia 66  Auburn 58

 

Michigan St. vs. Texas Tech

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan St.	61.76	13.2	33.6	73.9	16.0	12.9	11.8
Texas Tech	59.64	10.1	27.0	72.3	16.0	20.0	3.6

Michigan State has a slightly stronger strength of schedule, but not so much that the Red Raiders cannot overcome it.  The Spartans’ true shooting % margin is also slightly better, but their R+T rating is considerably better.  Texas Tech would not be given much chance to win this game if it wasn’t for the fact that their biggest strength is Michigan State’s biggest weakness.

All year, the PiRate Ratings have been telling you that Michigan State’s biggest weakness was their ability to hold onto the ball.  Texas Tech made it this far by playing an aggressive defense that has forced turnovers almost as frequently as Auburn.  This gives TTU a chance to win this game.  However, Michigan State has a commanding advantage on the glass in this game.  While this wasn’t Sparty’s best rebounding team, in fact one of its worst under Tom Izzo, but it is still much better than Chris Beard’s club.  Rebounding, especially on the offensive glass was mediocre.

This will be an interesting game, and the team that can force their asset on the other’s liability will win.  While it may be close to a 50-50 tossup, due to these two extremes in the rebounding and turnovers, the winner might win by double digits.  The reason this edition has not been released until Thursday is that it has taken the PiRates a couple of days to determine which way the Bracketnomics point to in this game.  

Prediction:  Michigan State 71  Texas Tech 65

 

 

 

 

 

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Elite 8

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Gonzaga	56.36	17.3	30.7	73.6	12.9	16.5	15.0
Texas Tech	59.03	10.2	27.6	72.0	16.0	20.0	4.2

Texas Tech enjoys a slight SOS edge, but Gonzaga’s exceptional R+T Rating is a major factor in this game.  Gonzaga will enjoy a modest rebounding advantage at both ends of the court, while the Bulldogs will be able to withstand the Red Raiders’ ball-hawking ability.  Thus, turnover margin should be close to even.  Gonzaga’s TS% Margin is somewhat better here, and the SOS advantage by TTU is mostly negated.

Prediction: Gonzaga by 6 to 11 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Virginia	59.89	12.3	29.7	75.0	12.9	15.8	10.2
Purdue	61.14	3.6	34.0	74.0	13.5	16.6	11.5

Purdue’s SOS and R+T Rating are marginally better, while Virginia holds a commanding TS% Margin advantage.  Purdue should grab a few additional offensive rebounds in this game, while turnovers should be relatively close.  This has the makings of an exciting close game, just like so many others in this year’s tournament.  In this game, the Bracketnomics cannot pick a conclusive winner, so other factors must be included.  Virginia has been a little more consistent in matching their statistical data, while Purdue has been a little more varied.  I will go with the more consistent team.

Prediction: Virginia by 2 to 7 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kentucky	60.76	9.8	36.6	74.7	15.8	16.0	16.2
Auburn	60.34	1.9	32.2	67.8	14.6	21.8	2.7

The effect of the Chuma Okeke injury can only be estimated for Auburn, while Kentucky’s P.J. Washington appears to be close to 100% for this game after playing well against Houston.

You would expect conference rivals at this point of the season to have similar SOS’s, and these two teams do.  Kentucky’s R+T Rating is so superior in this game, and their TS% Margin is considerably better, so this makes it a potential blowout game.  Auburn will force the Wildcats into a few extra turnovers, but the rebounding edge could be scary in this game, as the Big Blue might be able to win the boards by more than a 60-40% advantage.  

During the regular season, Kentucky beat Auburn both times.  It was a close game in Auburn, but the Wildcats breezed to an easy win in Lexington.

Prediction: Kentucky by 10 to 15 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Duke	62.63	9.8	35.5	71.0	14.7	17.0	12.1
Michigan St.	61.29	14.0	33.8	74.1	16.4	12.7	12.3

This game has the makings of another classic.  The data predicts a close contest.  Duke’s SOS advantage is minimal, and the R+T Ratings basically wash.  Michigan State’s TS% Margin mostly comes from a better 3-point shooting ability, and only slightly better defense.  Duke’s big advantage comes in turnover margin.  The Blue Devils have the ability to exploit the Spartans’ real liability, as Sparty is prone to turning the ball over, while Duke is a competent team when it comes to forcing turnovers.  Michigan State’s normal rebounding strength will be somewhat negated if not totally negated in this game.

It isn’t a slam dunk win for Coach K over Coach Izzo, but the Blue Devils have more going for themselves in the data for this one.

Prediction: Duke by 5 to 10 points

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 28, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Gonzaga	123.1	0.0	Florida St.	115.7	7.4
Tennessee	117.8	0.0	Purdue	117.6	0.2
Michigan	119.1	0.0	Texas Tech	118.4	0.7
Virginia	120.6	0.0	Oregon	111.2	9.4

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team	Team	TIME (EDT)	TV	LOCATION
Florida St.	Gonzaga	7:09 PM	CBS	Anaheim
Purdue	Tennessee	7:29 PM	TBS	Louisville
Texas Tech	Michigan	9:39 PM	CBS	Anaheim
Oregon	Virginia	9:59 PM	TBS	Louisville

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Games of Sat-Sun, March 24-25

Elite 8 Round

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Kansas St.	Loyola-IL	-0.1
Michigan	Florida St.	3.0
Villanova	Texas Tech	6.9
Kansas	Duke	-4.1

Elite 8 TV Schedule

Saturday, Mar 24, 2018
Time (EDT)	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
6:09 PM	9 Kansas St.	11 Loyola (Chi.)	Atlanta	TBS
8:49 PM	3 Michigan	9 Florida St.	Los Angeles	TBS
Sunday, Mar 25, 2018
Time (EDT)	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
2:20 PM	1 Villanova	3 Texas Tech	Boston	CBS
5:05 PM	1 Kansas	2 Duke	Omaha	CBS

Elite 8 Criteria Preview

Cinderella still remains in this tournament, even when there are just eight teams remaining.  Actually, there are two Cinderellas remaining, and one of them is now guaranteed to make the Final Four, as the two face off in Atlanta this evening.

The ninth-seeded Kansas State Wildcats keep defying the odds of 50+ years of past NCAA Tournament results.  Teams with terrible rebounding margins (Kansas State’s is -3.17 and with an R+T Rating [(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T,  where R is rebounding margin, S is steals per game, and T is turnover margin] just barely above zero just don’t dance this far into the marathon.

Loyola is bucking the trend only minimally.  While they participate in one of the top 12 conferences, thus a Power Conference, the Ramblers’ overall strength of schedule is below the par of Final Four teams.  Even past Final Four Cinderellas like Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, and George Mason had higher strengths of schedule, and former Missouri Valley Conference Final Four member Wichita State had a considerably higher strength of schedule when the Shockers made the national semifinals.

Florida State has tried on that slipper, but it is a tight fit.  The Seminoles are also a ninth seed, but it looks like the ACC teams were seeded a spot or two low this year.  The Seminoles have a brief history in the Final Four, getting to the title game, where they gave one of the best teams ever a real shock in the final, before losing to UCLA by five.  That was a Bruin team that outscored its opponents by a record 30+ points per game.

The Sunday schedule looks sane compared to the Saturday schedule.  Of the four teams playing on Sunday, the PiRate Rating Criteria correctly predicted three of the four to make it this far, and who knows what might have happened had Purdue’s Isaac Haas been able to play–it could have been a perfect four for four.

Nevertheless, Texas Tech is no slouch.  The Red Raiders play a difficult style of ball that is tough to match up against.  Coach Chris Beard takes from his past mentors, having been an assistant to Coach Bob Knight and Coach Tom Penders.  The Red Raiders play intelligently, and while they don’t run up and down the floor, they find ways to get open shots and to keep the opponent from getting too many on their side of the floor.

Villanova looks to be just as strong as the 2016 team that won the tournament.  The Wildcats have defeated teams playing different styles of ball, and they appear to be the most prepared to face whatever comes their way.  Looking at the criteria stats, there are three teams that we consider “complete teams,” in that they enjoy positive rebounding margins, turnover margins, average scoring margins, and they average more than 6 steals per game while giving up less than 6 steals per game.  Villanova is one of those three teams, and the Wildcats look to be the most complete of the three.

The Duke-Kansas match is the only one that the seed line got correct.  It is the only Elite 8 game that the PiRate Criteria also got correct.  The winner of this game will be crowned as the favorite to win it all, but if Villanova is there, it will set up a fantastic semifinal match, where the other side of the bracket will be overlooked.

Here are the Criteria Stats for the eight teams

Team	Power	W-L	Scr	TS% Diff	R+T	SOS
Duke	Y	29-7	84-69	9.72	21.2	60.69
Florida St.	Y	23-11	81-73	4.42	10.3	59.07
Kansas	Y	30-7	81-71	8.26	5.3	61.50
Kansas St.	Y	25-11	71-67	3.54	0.7	59.38
Loyola (Chi.)	Y	31-5	72-62	9.80	6.8	51.89
Michigan	Y	31-7	75-63	5.93	9.8	59.74
Texas Tech	Y	27-9	75-65	5.13	14.5	60.35
Villanova	Y	33-4	87-71	10.44	12.3	60.56

 

Here are the Detailed Criteria Matchups for the teams

Kansas St.  vs.  Loyola of Chicago

Team	Power	W-L	Scr	TS% Diff	R+T	SOS
Kansas St.	Y	25-11	71-67	3.54	0.7	59.38
Loyola (Chi.)	Y	31-5	72-62	9.80	6.8	51.89
Team	Reb	Stl	Opp Stl	TO	TS%	Def TS%
Kansas St.	-3.17	7.94	5.75	2.78	56.4	52.9
Loyola (Chi.)	1.67	6.50	6.53	0.75	60.2	50.4

This is an interesting game, because history shows Kansas St. with criteria like this should come around as often as Halley’s Comet, while Loyola has a criteria that looks more like a Sweet 16 at best team.

Looking at the head-to-head stats, Loyola is superior in more of the key stats, but Kansas State has the big schedule strength advantage.  The outcome of this game will come down to whether the Wildcats can force the Ramblers into turnovers that they have not been committing so far in the Dance.  Loyola is playing confidently, and they have not been affected by the bright lights.  Assistant Coach Sister Jean may be the reason for that.

We don’t want to sound like a broken record, but our criteria will not allow us to pick a team with an R+T Rating barely above 0.  Kansas State cannot continue to get out-rebounded by large amounts (double digits against Kentucky) and rely on steals and three-point shots to win.  It might work two or three times, but asking to make the Final Four without being able to rebound or really shoot well is asking way too much.   They have a puncher’s chance to win this game and become the weakest rebounding team in Final Four history, but we are going to favor the team that is closer to complete.

PiRate Pick: LOYOLA of CHICAGO

 

Michigan vs.  Florida St.

Team	Power	W-L	Scr	TS% Diff	R+T	SOS
Michigan	Y	31-7	75-63	5.93	9.8	59.74
Florida St.	Y	23-11	81-73	4.42	10.3	59.07
Team	Reb	Stl	Opp Stl	TO	TS%	Def TS%
Michigan	0.58	6.29	4.11	3.63	57.0	51.0
Florida St.	2.71	6.91	5.82	1.26	56.4	52.0

This looks like a complete toss-up game according to the statistics.  Both teams have favorable scoring margins, although Michigan’s is a bit better.  Both teams have decent true shooting percentage margins, R+T ratings, and Strengths of Schedule.  Florida State has the rebounding edge, but Michigan gets the turnover margin edge.

There is one secondary edge that the Wolverines have that the Seminoles lack.  The Maize and Blue have won 12 games in a row, and in that time, their rebounding has made a major leap forward.

PiRate Pick: MICHIGAN

 

Villanova vs. Texas Tech

Team	Power	W-L	Scr	TS% Diff	R+T	SOS
Villanova	Y	33-4	87-71	10.44	12.3	60.56
Texas Tech	Y	27-9	75-65	5.13	14.5	60.35
Team	Reb	Stl	Opp Stl	TO	TS%	Def TS%
Villanova	2.70	6.62	4.81	2.38	62.5	52.1
Texas Tech	4.11	7.19	5.94	2.67	55.8	50.7

Texas Tech has done an admirable job to get this far, and they will not go down without a fight, but their opponent has the criteria look of a Final Four team.  In fact, of the eight remaining teams, Villanova’s criteria best fits that of a Final Four team.

The Wildcats may eventually meet a team that is too strong on the boards for them to dominate on the scoreboard, but Texas Tech is most likely not that team.  The Red Raiders might win the rebounding numbers by a little, but we don’t think they can clean the glass, which is what it is going to take to stop VU.

PiRate Pick: VILLANOVA

 

Kansas  vs.  Duke

Team	Power	W-L	Scr	TS% Diff	R+T	SOS
Kansas	Y	30-7	81-71	8.26	5.3	61.50
Duke	Y	29-7	84-69	9.72	21.2	60.69
Team	Reb	Stl	Opp Stl	TO	TS%	Def TS%
Kansas	0.05	6.59	5.51	1.38	59.7	51.4
Duke	8.80	7.39	5.69	-0.39	58.8	49.1

What looks like the game of the Elite 8 Round may be exactly what has been advertised.  This should be an interesting game, because both teams have small Achilles’ Heels that a genius coaching staff and highly-skilled players can exploit.  Both teams have genius coaching staffs and highly-skilled players.

The glaring difference in this game is that Kansas’s liability is Duke’s biggest asset, whereas Duke’s liability is only a minor asset for KU.

PiRate Pick: DUKE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Games of Friday, March 23

Sweet 16–Friday, March 23

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Kansas	Clemson	1.7
Villanova	West Virginia	6.4
Duke	Syracuse	5.1
Purdue	Texas Tech	3.3

Friday Night’s Schedule

Friday, Mar 23, 2018
TIME (EDT)	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	City	TV
7:07 PM	1 Kansas	5 Clemson	Omaha	CBS
7:27 PM	1 Villanova	5 West Virginia	Boston	TBS
9:37 PM	2 Duke	11 Syracuse	Omaha	CBS
9:57 PM	2 Purdue	3 Texas Tech	Boston	TBS

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Two

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game. 

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl

Detroit, MI

8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Toledo (8-4)  vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)

Vegas: Toledo by 1

Totals: 57

PiRate: Toledo by 3.3

Mean: Toledo by 2.8

Bias: Toledo by 16.8

100 Sims: Toledo 67  Florida International 33

Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6  Florida International 25.7

Outlier A: Toledo 49  Florida International 19

Outlier B: Florida International 37  Toledo 24

 

Monday, December 27

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

Air Force (8-4)  vs.  Georgia Tech (6-6)

Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½  

Totals: 56

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7

Mean: Air Force by 5.2

Bias: Air Force by 5.9

100 Sims: Air Force 55  Georgia Tech 45

Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2  Georgia Tech 26.9

Outlier A: Air Force 41  Georgia Tech 23

Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34  A Force 23

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

6:30 PM EST on ESPN

West Virginia (9-3)  vs. North Carolina State (8-4)

Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½

Totals: 49

PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8

Mean: West Virginia by 2.3

Bias: West Virginia by 3.0

100 Sims: West Virginia 53  North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)

Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8  North Carolina State 25.2

Outlier A: West Virginia 27  North Carolina State 10

Outlier B: North Carolina State 28  West Virginia 12

 

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM EST

Missouri (10-2)  vs.  Iowa (7-5)

Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½

Totals: 46 ½

PiRate: Even

Mean: Missouri by 4.1

Bias: Missouri by 12.6

100 Sims: Missouri 58  Iowa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6  Iowa 22.3

Outlier A: Missouri 31  Iowa 13

Outlier B: Iowa 21  Missouri 7

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl

Washington, D.C.

2:30 PM on EST

Maryland (8-4)  vs. East Carolina (6-6)

Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½

Totals: 68 ½

PiRate: Maryland by 18.4

Mean: Maryland by 11.2

Bias: Maryland by 13.8

100 Sims: East Carolina 51  Maryland 49

Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4  East Carolina 34.1

Outlier A: East Carolina 47  Maryland 31

Outlier B: Maryland 42  East Carolina 20

 

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

6:00 PM EST on ESPN

Baylor (7-5)  vs. Illinois (6-6)

Vegas: Baylor by 1

Totals: 62 ½

PiRate: Baylor by 2.4

Mean: Illinois by 1.6

Bias: Baylor by 6.9

100 Sims: Illinois 54  Baylor 46

Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1  Baylor 28.6

Outlier A: Illinois 34  Baylor 17

Outlier B: Baylor 28  Illinois 18

 

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM EST on ESPN

Oklahoma State (10-2)  vs. Arizona (7-5)

Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½

Totals: 66

PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1

Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1

Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6

100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61  Arizona 39

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0  Arizona 29.1

Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51  Arizona 27

Outlier B: Arizona 34  Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)

 

Thursday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U (7-6)  vs. Army (6-6)

Vegas: S M U by 7

Totals: 52

PiRate: S M U by 7.7

Mean: S M U by 3.2

Bias: S M U by 10.6

100 Sims: S M U 64  Army 36

Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2  Army 20.6

Outlier A: S M U 34  Army 10

Outlier B: Army 24  S M U 16

 

Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

3:20 PM EST

Syracuse (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 47 ½

PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5

Mean: Kansas State by 4.6

Bias: Syracuse by 2.3

100 Sims: Syracuse 53  Kansas State 47

Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1  Kansas State 18.6

Outlier A: Syracuse 24  Kansas State 7

Outlier B: Kansas State 17  Syracuse 3

 

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

6:30 PM EST

Tennessee (6-6)  vs. North Carolina (7-5)

Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½  

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8

Mean: North Carolina by 1.5

Bias: Tennessee by 6.6

100 Sims: Tennessee 50  North Carolina 50

Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5  North Carolina 23.9

Outlier A: Tennessee 30  North Carolina 14

Outlier B: North Carolina 27  Tennessee 12

 

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

10:00 PM EST

Nebraska (10-3)  vs. Washington (6-6)

Vegas: Nebraska by 14

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8

Mean: Nebraska by 11.5

Bias: Nebraska by 5.3

100 Sims: Nebraska 57  Washington 43

Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1  Washington 19.3

Outlier A: Nebraska 27  Washington 6

Outlier B: Washington 23  Nebraska 14

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

12:00 Noon EST

South Florida (7-5)  vs. Clemson (6-6)

Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½

Totals: 40 ½

PiRate: Clemson by 5.1

Mean: Clemson by 3.7

Bias: South Florida by 6.1

100 Sims: South Florida 58  Clemson 42

Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1  Clemson 19.2

Outlier A: South Florida 31  Clemson 12

Outlier B: Clemson 28  South Florida 16

 

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

2:00 PM EST on CBS

Notre Dame (7-5)  vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)

Vegas: Miami by 3

Totals: 47

PiRate: Miami by 6.3

Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2

Bias: Miami by 6.0

100 Sims: Notre Dame 52  Miami 48

Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4  Miami 23.2

Outlier A: Notre Dame 30  Miami 14

Outlier B: Miami 35  Notre Dame 14

 

Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST on ESPN

Central Florida (10-3)  vs. Georgia (6-6)

Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½

Totals: 55 ½

PiRate: Georgia by 12.8

Mean: Georgia by 5.3

Bias: Georgia by 11.3

100 Sims: Georgia 72  Central Florida 28

Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6  Central Florida 17.3

Outlier A: Georgia 38  Central Florida 10

Outlier B: Central Florida 24  Georgia 19

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM EST on ESPN

South Carolina (9-4)  vs. Florida State (9-4)

Vegas: South Carolina by 3

Totals: 55

PiRate: Florida State by 0.4

Mean: South Carolina by 0.5

Bias: Florida State by 1.6

100 Sims: Florida State 52  South Carolina 48

Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7  Florida State 26.6

Outlier A: Florida State 30  South Carolina 16

Outlier B: South Carolina 44  Florida State 17

 

Saturday, January 1

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U

Texas Tech (7-5)  vs. Northwestern (7-5)

Vegas: Texas Tech by 10

Totals: 60

PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5

Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3

Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6

100 Sims: Texas Tech 86  Northwestern 14

Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6  Northwestern 21.2

Outlier A: Texas Tech 45  Northwestern 17

Outlier B: Northwestern 30  Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)

 

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

1:00 PM EST on ABC

Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)

Vegas: Florida by 7 ½  

Totals: 48

PiRate: Florida by 13.2

Mean: Florida by 5.1

Bias: Florida by 5.5

100 Sims: Florida 54  Penn State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6  Penn State 19.8

Outlier A: Florida 28  Penn State 13

Outlier B: Penn State 21  Florida 10

 

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL

1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Michigan State (11-1) vs.  Alabama (9-3)

Vegas: Alabama by 10

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Alabama by 15.5

Mean: Alabama by 10.4

Bias: Alabama by 3.2

100 Sims: Alabama 59  Michigan State 41

Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6  Michigan State 24.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan State 12

Outlier B: Michigan State 35  Alabama 25

 

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM EST on ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4)  vs.  Michigan (7-5)

Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½

Totals: 61

PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3

Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3

Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8

100 Sims: Mississippi State 52  Michigan 48

Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7  Michigan 30.1

Outlier A: Mississippi State 38  Michigan 20

Outlier B: Michigan 36  Mississippi State 27

 

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

T C U (12-0)  vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

Vegas: T C U by 3

Totals: 58 ½

PiRate: T C U by 7.9

Mean: T C U by 5.8

Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6

100 Sims: Wisconsin 54  T C U 46

Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4  T C U 28.8

Outlier A: Wisconsin 40  T C U 24

Outlier B: T C U 34  Wisconsin 24

 

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma (11-2)  vs. Connecticut (8-4)

Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2

Totals: 55

PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7

Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2

Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7

100 Sims: Oklahoma 91  Connecticut 9

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3  Connecticut 14.8

Outlier A: Oklahoma 49  Connecticut 7

Outlier B: Connecticut 27  Oklahoma 23

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	132.5	12	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Auburn	131.0	13	0
5	Boise State	128.8	11	1
6	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
7	Oklahoma	127.7	11	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	124.2	11	2
12	Florida State	119.8	9	4
13	South Carolina	119.4	9	4
14	Nebraska	118.9	10	3
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	117.0	9	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Nevada	115.7	12	1
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Florida	115.3	7	5
23	Missouri	115.2	10	2
24t	Arizona	115.2	7	5
24t	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-4	119.8
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	11-2	124.2
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	117.0
Pittsburgh	5-2	7-5	110.7
Connecticut	5-2	8-4	108.0
South Florida	3-4	7-5	106.9
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-5	4-8	100.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-6	4-8	89.5

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Illinois	4-4	6-6	104.4
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-3	118.9
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	11-2	127.7
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	10-3	102.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-6	92.7
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Miami (O)	7-1	9-4	90.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-3	104.1
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-11	80.4
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	9-0	12-0	132.5
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-5	7-5	115.2
Southern Cal	5-4	8-5	112.0
Arizona St.	4-5	6-6	111.0
Oregon St.	4-5	5-7	109.6
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	5-4	6-6	107.1
U C L A	2-7	4-8	101.8
Washington State	1-8	2-10	94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-4	119.4
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	13-0	131.0
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-2	6-6	87.0
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	6-2	7-5	85.8
Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	82.8
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1
Florida Atlantic	3-5	4-8	73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-1	11-1	128.8
Nevada	7-1	12-1	115.9
Hawaii	7-1	10-3	108.9
Fresno State	5-3	8-4	98.2
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7	93.0
Idaho	3-5	6-7	88.1
Utah State	2-6	4-8	88.0
San Jose State	0-8	1-12	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Navy	Army (Philadelphia)	14.4	31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army  (Philadelphia)	31-23	27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	131.9	11	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Boise State	130.6	10	1
5	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
6	Auburn	127.5	12	0
7	Oklahoma	127.1	10	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	123.1	10	2
12	South Carolina	122.9	9	3
13	Florida State	120.9	9	3
14	Nebraska	119.5	10	2
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	116.8	8	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Arizona	116.3	7	4
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Nevada	115.3	11	1
23	Florida	115.3	7	5
24	Missouri	115.2	10	2
25	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-3	120.9
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	10-2	123.1
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	4-2	8-3	116.8
Pittsburgh	4-2	6-5	108.6
Connecticut	4-2	7-4	107.6
South Florida	3-3	7-4	107.3
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-4	4-7	102.8
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-5	4-7	89.7

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-2	119.5
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	10-2	127.1
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	9-3	103.2
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-5	92.4
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Miami (O)	7-1	8-4	87.8
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-2	106.9
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-10	82.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	8-0	11-0	131.9
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-4	7-4	116.3
Southern Cal	4-4	7-5	111.0
Oregon St.	4-4	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	3-5	5-6	109.9
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	4-4	5-6	106.9
U C L A	2-6	4-7	102.8
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-3	122.9
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	12-0	127.5
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-1	6-5	88.4
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	5-2	6-5	82.8
Middle Tennessee	4-3	5-6	81.4
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Florida Atlantic	3-4	4-7	76.7
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-1	10-1	130.6
Nevada	6-1	11-1	115.3
Hawaii	7-1	9-3	106.8
Fresno State	5-3	7-4	97.5
Louisiana Tech	4-3	5-6	93.6
Idaho	2-5	5-7	89.3
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-7	1-11	77.3
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	8.9	31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	4.1	31-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)   (Detroit)	19.1	42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Southern Cal	U C L A	6.2	34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	2.7	20-17
Oregon	OREGON STATE	18.7	45-26
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	10.0	31-21
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	30.1	42-12
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	2.8	24-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	10.0	34-24
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	3.1	30-27
BOISE STATE	Utah State	47.4	61-14
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	18.2	35-17
IDAHO	San Jose State	14.5	38-23
HAWAII	U n l v	28.3	49-21
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	4.6	35-30
Virginia Tech	Florida State (Charlotte)	2.2	25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	13.8	35-21
Oklahoma	Nebraska (Dallas)	7.6	21-13

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	31-21	27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	34-31	34-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)  (Detroit)	35-24	41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Southern Cal	U C L A	31-21	30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	27-24	27-23
Oregon	OREGON STATE	49-26	51-19
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	35-27	35-20
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	34-14	34-14
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	34-22	28-26
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	31-24	34-28
BOISE STATE	Utah State	56-20	59-17
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	37-17	35-31
IDAHO	San Jose State	42-24	45-28
HAWAII	U n l v	49-20	48-14
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	38-24	34-24
Virginia Tech	Florida State  (Charlotte)	26-25	27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	34-26	35-30
Oklahoma	Nebraska  (Dallas)	21-16	22-20

Bowl Projections Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	B Y U 6-6	WAC (#3?)	Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Miami (O) 8-5	WAC #(1) or 2	Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	Connecticut 7-5	C-USA #4-6	Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO	MWC #1	Utah 10-2	Pac 10 #5	[Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	S. D. State 8-4	Navy or WAC	NAVY 9-3
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	HAWAII 10-3	C-USA #2-6	Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Louisville 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	Notre Dame 7-5	ACC #3	N. C. State 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 7-5
Military	ACC #8	Boston Coll. 7-5	C-USA #6	E C U 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Penn State 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Oklahoma St. 10-2	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	S M U 7-6	MWC #3-5/Army	Army 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 7-5	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Maryland 8-4
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	N. Carolina 8-4	Big East #3-4	S. Florida 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	Miami (FL) 7-5	Pac 10 #4	[Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6	C-USA #1	Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	Miss. State 8-4	ACC #2	Florida State 9-4
Ticket City	Big 10 #6-7	Northwestern 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 7-5
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan St. 11-1	SEC #2	L S U 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Illinois 7-5	SEC #6	Florida 7-5
Rose	BCS Pac10	T C U 12-0	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 11-2	BCS At-Large	Stanford 11-1
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	West Va. 9-3
Sugar	BCS SEC	Ohio State 11-1	BCS At-Large	Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 7-5	MAC #1 or 2	Toledo 8-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska 10-3	SEC #3-6 W	Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass	Big East #5	Pittsburgh 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Temple 8-4]	WAC #1	Nevada 11-1
Championship Game	*** BCS #1 ***	Oregon 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 23-27, 2010

The Winning Streak Comes To An End

It had to happen.  We knew we could not go through the entire season with one winning week after another.  Our luck ran dry this weekend.  Our picks went 2-2-1 against the spread, which in our terms, is a losing week, since you lay 10-11 odds when picking straight sides.

 

Perhaps we should not have deviated from our sweetheart teaser picks, but we liked the five games we selected.  Let’s quickly reveal our picks so we can move on and talk college football

 

1. Tennessee -9 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

Okay, if you are one of our regular subscribers to our handicapping service, maybe you did enjoy a winning week.  For, we told you that we felt that the Vols had a 99% chance of covering at -9.  If you decided to make this your only pick, then you went 1-0.

 

Vanderbilt has run out of gas, while Tennessee is on their annual November roll.  The final score was only 24-10, and we had to sweat out a late Vandy run with backup quarterback Jared Funk.

 

2. Ohio State -3 vs. Iowa

Push

This game surprised us a bit.  We felt as if the Buckeyes were ready to pull off a two touchdown win, and when the offense struggled early, we were concerned.  Ohio State is not as strong as they were supposed to be, and they should not have gained ground on Wisconsin in the BCS standings. 

 

3. Texas A&M + 2 ½ vs. Nebraska

WON

Please don’t let Bo Pelini hear this.  We told our subscribers that we had a sneaky suspicion that Nebraska would see a lot of questionable officiating calls go against them in this game, just like it happened against Texas.  The national media has to put on a good face, but we could care less about stepping on toes of the Big 12 Conference.  We warned our fans on Thursday that we suspected this would happen.  The game was considered a tossup, so we felt A&M would win by a touchdown.  It was only by a field goal, but we won any way.

 

4. Cleveland Browns + 1 ½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lost

The Browns’ short flirtation with respectability has gone back into hibernation.  We blew this one royally, thinking the boys from Lake Erie would win by 7-10 points.

 

5. San Francisco 49ers + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Lost

Tampa Bay has proven they are playoff worthy.  San Francisco’s offensive woes continue, and yet they are still in contention in the worst division in the history of NFL football.

 

A Look At The FBS Conference Races and Bowls

There are 35 bowls this year.  Thus, 70 teams need to be bowl eligible.  With two weeks to go in the season, only 64 teams are bowl eligible.  It is a sure thing that at least one or two others will gain bowl eligibility due to the schedule.  What happens if the magic number falls short of 70?  Will the NCAA allow 5-7 teams into the bowls?  Who would want to see a 5-7 and 6-6 team face off in a loser bowl?

 

A 12-team playoff, using the top 11 bowls would leave 24 bowls for the rest of the NCAA.  This would not be a problem.  The bowl that might end up with a 5-7 team would end up with a 7-5 or 8-4 team under a 12-team playoff.

 

The PiRate Ratings have conducted simulated NCAA football playoffs the past two seasons, and we will do so again after the end of the regular season.

 

Let’s look at each conference as it stands today.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech has sewn up the Coastal Division Championship.  They will face either North Carolina State or Florida State.  If N.C. State beats Maryland, they win the division title.  If Maryland wins, Florida State goes to the ACC title game.

 

Nine teams are already bowl eligible, and the conference has eight bowl tie-ins.  Expect all nine teams to land in bowls.

 

 

Big East

No team in this league belongs in a BCS bowl game.  TCU and Boise State are 21 points better than the best team in the Big East.  The cold hard fact is that the winner of this conference will be the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl picks—the Fiesta Bowl. 

 

Pittsburgh has a one game lead over West Virginia and Connecticut.  They would lose a three-way tiebreaker if the three finished 5-2.

 

Connecticut, South Florida, and Syracuse are bowl eligible.  Louisville is one win away, while Cincinnati and Rutgers are still in contention at 4-6.  We think UL will get that sixth win this week against Rutgers, while Cincinnati falls short.  Throw in Notre Dame, which will finish no worse than 6-6, and there will be enough teams to satisfy the league’s allotment.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Three teams are in contention for the Rose Bowl with one week to go.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tied at 6-1.  If they all win this week, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings will get the Rose Bowl bid.  Wisconsin holds a marginal lead over Ohio State.  The Badgers face Northwestern, while the Buckeyes host Michigan.  It will be a close vote if both win.  Michigan State wins a tiebreaker with Wisconsin, while Wisconsin wins a tiebreaker with Ohio State.  If Ohio State and Michigan State finish tied at 7-1, the Buckeyes will be the higher ranked team in the BCS and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

Eight teams are bowl eligible, and there is a decent chance that a second team will get a BCS at-large bid.  That would make nine bowl openings for eight teams, and the need for an at-large representative for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

 

 

 

Big 12

The Big 12 is out of the national championship picture this year.  Nebraska will win the North Division with a win over Colorado or a Missouri loss to Kansas.  Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma to wrap up the South Division, but the Sooners could easily win this game.  If Texas A&M beats Texas, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, it will take five steps into the conference’s tiebreaker rules to determine the representative for the Big 12 Championship Game.  Oklahoma would hold the leg up over the other two.

 

Colorado and Texas need wins to gain bowl eligibility, but it is our opinion that both will lose their finales and miss out.  That will leave eight bowl eligible teams for eight bowls.

 

 

 

Conference USA

In the East, Central Florida is as close to in the league title game as a team can be and not already have it clinched.  UCF only needs to beat hapless Memphis to secure the division flag.  It is a certainty.

 

In the West, SMU controls its own destiny.  However, the Mustangs play at East Carolina this week.  We believe the Pirates will win.  That means Tulsa would capture the flag with a win over Southern Miss.  We will give the Golden Hurricane the edge.

 

Houston needs a win at Texas Tech to gain bowl eligibility, but the Cougars are wounded without their top two quarterbacks.  No bowl for Houston this year.

 

 

 

Independents

Navy is bowl eligible, and the Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  Army is also bowl eligible, and they will get an at-large selection somewhere.  Notre Dame is bowl eligible, and they will either receive one of the Big East bowl bids or an at-large bid.

 

 

Mid-American

As usual, there are always more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids for the MAC.  Ohio, Temple, and Miami (O) from the East and Northern Illinois and Toledo from the West are bowl eligible.  Western Michigan will become bowl eligible with a win at Bowling Green.  That will leave six teams available for three bids.  Expect five of the six to go bowling.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

TCU’s blowout win over New Mexico this week will give the Horned Frogs their second consecutive undefeated regular season finish and at-large selection to a BCS Bowl.  There is a small chance that they could play for the National Championship.  Their BCS ranking will drop by playing the 1-10 Lobos, while Boise State finished on the road against a ranked team.

 

Five teams are bowl eligible, and all five will go to bowls.  That will leave one bowl spot open for an at-large invitee—the New Mexico Bowl.

 

 

 

Pac-10

This is the messy conference.  To start out, Southern Cal is ineligible for a bowl.  Throw in the chance that Stanford will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  Now, top it off with the fact that Arizona is the only other bowl eligible team at this point.  California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, but we believe only one of these five will do it.  That means this league could fall three bids short.

 

 

 

Southeastern

“As the Cam Turns” is the top-rated soap opera in the South during November sweeps.  It just may turn south on Auburn this week.  We think Alabama is going to end the Tigers’ championship hopes this week.  We cannot see any scenario where Auburn would jump Boise State and TCU after losing this late in the season.  It is no gimme that the Tigers can beat South Carolina twice in one season.

 

LSU can grab an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl with a win at Arkansas, but we believe the Razorbacks will put an end to those aspirations.

 

Georgia and Tennessee need victories this week to gain bowl eligibility.  We think both will be victorious.  That will leave 10 bowl eligible teams for nine bowls and an at-large bid.

 

 

 

 

Sunbelt

Somebody has to win this league.  With two weeks left in the season, one for UL-Monroe, no team has earned bowl eligibility.  The schedule guarantees that at least one team will become bowl eligible, and we think at least two will pick up a sixth win.  For a change, Troy may not win the conference championship.

 

 

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has a tough finale at Nevada this week, but we do not believe the boys from Reno have a strong enough defense to slow down the Broncos.  Boise State is our top-rated team, and we feel like they would be a field goal choice over Oregon in a national title game.  A win at Nevada should allow the Broncos to jump over TCU in the BCS standings, and if Auburn loses to Alabama, it should put BSU into the number two slot.

 

Louisiana Tech and Idaho still have remote chances at bowl eligibility, but we think both will fall one game short.  With BSU getting a BCS Bowl bid, the WAC will fall one team short in its bowl obligations. 

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 22, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Boise State	134.6	10	0
2	T C U	132.9	11	0
3	Oregon	132.1	10	0
4	Stanford	129.7	10	1
5	Alabama	127.5	9	2
6	Ohio State	127.1	10	1
7	Oklahoma	127.0	9	2
8	Auburn	126.2	11	0
9	Arkansas	124.4	9	2
10	Virginia Tech	122.8	9	2
11	Wisconsin	122.7	10	1
12	South Carolina	121.1	8	3
13	Texas A&M	118.8	8	3
14	Nebraska	118.8	9	2
15	Florida State	118.2	8	3
16	L S U	118.0	10	1
17t	Florida	118.0	7	4
17t	Miami (Fla)	118.0	7	4
19	Iowa	117.3	7	4
20	Oklahoma State	116.4	10	1
21	Arizona	116.1	7	3
22	North Carolina	115.6	6	5
23	Georgia	115.5	5	6
24	Missouri	114.9	9	2
25	Mississippi State	114.8	7	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	8-3	118.2
Clemson	4-4	6-5	112.8
North Carolina State	5-2	8-3	111.4
Maryland	4-3	7-4	104.7
Boston College	4-4	6-5	103.9
Wake Forest	1-7	2-9	89.9
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	7-0	9-2	122.8
Miami-FL	5-3	7-4	118.0
North Carolina	3-4	6-5	115.6
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-5	108.7
Virginia	1-6	4-7	95.3
Duke	1-6	3-8	95.1

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	114.6
Pittsburgh	4-1	6-4	110.8
Connecticut	3-2	6-4	106.4
South Florida	3-3	6-4	104.5
Cincinnati	2-3	4-6	104.0
Louisville	2-4	5-6	102.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-4	101.1
Rutgers	1-4	4-6	91.1

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	10-1	127.1
Wisconsin	6-1	10-1	122.7
Iowa	4-3	7-4	117.3
Michigan State	6-1	10-1	110.2
Michigan	3-4	7-4	106.5
Penn State	4-3	7-4	105.1
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Northwestern	3-4	7-4	95.4
Minnesota	1-6	2-9	94.0
Purdue	2-5	4-7	92.5
Indiana	0-7	4-7	88.7

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-2	9-2	118.8
Missouri	5-2	9-2	114.9
Kansas State	3-5	6-5	100.7
Colorado	2-5	5-6	100.3
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-6	3-8	88.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	5-2	9-2	127.0
Texas A&M	5-2	8-3	118.8
Oklahoma State	6-1	10-1	116.4
Texas	2-5	5-6	106.0
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	6-5	104.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	6-1	8-3	104.8
Southern Mississippi	5-2	8-3	98.6
East Carolina	5-2	6-5	90.2
U A B	3-4	4-7	86.8
Marshall	3-4	4-7	83.6
Memphis	0-7	1-10	69.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	5-2	8-3	98.1
Houston	4-4	5-6	96.5
S M U	5-2	6-5	92.2
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	2-5	3-8	84.0
Tulane	2-5	4-7	74.8

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-5	107.0
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-2	8-3	95.2
Ohio U	6-1	8-3	91.7
Miami (O)	6-1	7-4	85.2
Kent St.	3-4	4-7	80.6
Bowling Green	1-6	2-9	77.1
Buffalo	1-6	2-9	71.5
Akron	0-7	0-11	66.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	7-0	9-2	103.9
Toledo	6-1	7-4	88.5
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	86.7
Central Michigan	2-5	3-8	84.5
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-5	2-9	69.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	132.9
Utah	6-1	9-2	111.7
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-2	6-5	104.2
S. D. State	4-3	7-4	102.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-5	2-9	84.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-6	1-10	75.4

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-0	10-0	132.1
Stanford	7-1	10-1	129.7
Arizona	4-3	7-3	116.1
Southern Cal	4-4	7-4	112.9
Oregon St.	4-3	5-5	112.3
California	3-5	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	109.2
Washington	3-4	4-6	105.1
U C L A	2-5	4-6	103.5
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	8-3	121.1
Florida	4-4	7-4	118.0
Georgia	3-5	5-6	115.5
Kentucky	2-5	6-5	106.9
Tennessee	2-5	5-6	105.0
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-9	88.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-2	9-2	127.5
Auburn	7-0	11-0	126.2
Arkansas	5-2	9-2	124.4
L S U	6-1	10-1	118.0
Mississippi State	3-4	7-4	114.8
Ole Miss	1-6	4-7	100.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	5-1	5-5	88.1
Arkansas State	4-3	4-7	84.2
Troy	4-2	5-5	82.2
Middle Tennessee	3-3	4-6	79.9
North Texas	3-5	3-8	79.0
Louisiana-Monroe	4-3	5-6	78.9
Florida Atlantic	3-3	4-6	78.2
U. of Louisiana	2-5	2-9	76.8
Western Kentucky	2-5	2-9	75.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-0	10-0	134.6
Nevada	5-1	10-1	111.3
Hawaii	6-1	8-3	106.2
Fresno State	4-3	6-4	97.7
Louisiana Tech	3-3	4-6	94.0
Idaho	2-4	5-6	89.1
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-6	1-10	76.9
New Mexico State	1-6	2-9	72.5

 

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Temple	MIAMI (O)	7.0	28-21
Thursday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Texas A&M	TEXAS	10.3	24-14
Friday, November 26
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Louisville	RUTGERS	8.6	28-19
Western Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	6.6	27-20
West Virginia	PITTSBURGH	1.3	21-20
ALABAMA	Auburn	3.8	31-27
Buffalo	AKRON	2.6	24-21
TOLEDO	Central Michigan	7.0	38-31
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	31.5	45-13
EAST CAROLINA	S m u	1.0	35-34
Ohio U	KENT STATE	8.6	30-21
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	8.7	26-17
NEBRASKA	Colorado	21.5	28-6
TULSA	Southern Miss.	2.5	38-35
OREGON	Arizona	19.5	44-24
Boise State	NEVADA	26.3	46-20
Saturday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARKANSAS	L s u	9.4	35-26
STANFORD	Oregon State	20.4	37-17
CONNECTICUT	Cincinnati	5.4	26-21
FLORIDA STATE	Florida	2.7	27-24
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	9.3	33-24
North Carolina St.	MARYLAND	3.7	24-20
Iowa	MINNESOTA	20.3	37-17
Mississippi State	OLE MISS	11.4	28-17
North Carolina	DUKE	18.5	45-26
SYRACUSE	Boston College	0.2	17-17 to ot
OHIO STATE	Michigan	23.6	44-20
Oklahoma	OKLAHOMA STATE	8.1	34-26
Michigan State	PENN STATE	2.1	30-28
South Carolina	CLEMSON	5.8	34-28
VANDERBILT	Wake Forest	2.0	26-24
RICE	U a b	0.2	34-34 to ot
Kansas State	NORTH TEXAS	18.7	44-25
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	30.0	37-7
WISCONSIN	Northwestern	30.3	51-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Arkansas State	6.4	34-28
MIAMI (FL)	South Florida	16.5	38-21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Atlantic	4.2	31-27
UL-MONROE	UL-Lafayette	4.6	26-21
PURDUE	Indiana	6.8	38-31
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	1.1	35-34
TEXAS TECH	Houston	10.7	45-34
TROY	Western Kentucky	9.5	38-28
Central Florida	MEMPHIS	33.2	40-7
MARSHALL	Tulane	11.8	35-23
Missouri	Kansas (Kansas City)	26.4	40-14
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO STATE	30.7	45-14
UTAH	B y u	10.0	34-24
T c u	NEW MEXICO	55.0	55-0
SAN DIEGO STATE	U n l v	20.9	42-21
Louisiana Tech	SAN JOSE STATE	14.1	31-17
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	8.9	33-24
FRESNO STATE	Idaho	11.6	38-26

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Temple	MIAMI (O)	27-20	27-16
Thursday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Texas A&M	TEXAS	23-13	20-14
Friday, November 26
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Louisville	RUTGERS	24-21	28-17
Western Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	35-28	38-16
PITTSBURGH	West Virginia	17-14	17-14
ALABAMA	Auburn	31-27	31-28
Buffalo	AKRON	23-20	23-20
TOLEDO	Central Michigan	38-30	41-21
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	45-19	49-17
EAST CAROLINA	S m u	36-34	34-38
Ohio U	KENT STATE	35-23	33-14
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	31-20	27-20
NEBRASKA	Colorado	28-9	23-17
TULSA	Southern Miss.	41-37	44-34
OREGON	Arizona	42-23	41-23
Boise State	NEVADA	42-30	60-31
Saturday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARKANSAS	L s u	31-27	31-20
STANFORD	Oregon State	37-20	38-19
CONNECTICUT	Cincinnati	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA STATE	Florida	30-27	30-27
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	31-20	28-24
North Carolina St.	MARYLAND	24-20	27-17
Iowa	MINNESOTA	30-13	34-10
Mississippi State	OLE MISS	33-25	34-24
North Carolina	DUKE	35-24	35-24
SYRACUSE	Boston College	16-14	19-17
OHIO STATE	Michigan	37-17	38-24
OKLAHOMA STATE	Oklahoma	30-27	27-31
Michigan State	PENN STATE	30-27	20-23
South Carolina	CLEMSON	35-30	36-20
VANDERBILT	Wake Forest	23-17	20-23
RICE	U a b	35-35 to ot	38-36
Kansas State	NORTH TEXAS	41-21	45-24
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	35-9	31-14
WISCONSIN	Northwestern	45-24	45-24
FLORIDA INT’L	Arkansas State	34-27	34-27
MIAMI (FL)	South Florida	30-17	30-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Atlantic	27-26	24-23
UL-MONROE	UL-Lafayette	35-27	35-21
PURDUE	Indiana	38-31	37-28
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	34-31	35-30
TEXAS TECH	Houston	41-32	41-28
TROY	Western Kentucky	40-28	35-31
Central Florida	MEMPHIS	42-14	47-10
MARSHALL	Tulane	35-28	32-31
Missouri	Kansas (Kansas City)	41-17	31-13
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO STATE	45-17	44-17
UTAH	B y u	37-24	28-24
T c u	NEW MEXICO	50-7	56-0
SAN DIEGO STATE	U n l v	44-24	44-20
Louisiana Tech	SAN JOSE STATE	27-16	28-16
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	34-27	28-25
FRESNO STATE	Idaho	38-30	38-26

 

 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	[Temple 9-3]	WAC (#3?)	[Army 6-6]
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Toledo 9-3	WAC #(1) or 2	Fresno St. 7-5
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	S M U 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	Connecticut 7-5	C-USA #4-6	East Carolina 7-5
MAACO	MWC #1	Utah 10-2	Pac 10 #5	[Kentucky 6-6]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	San Diego St. 8-4	Navy or WAC	NAVY 9-3
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	HAWAII 10-3	C-USA #2-6	Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Boston Coll. 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports	Big East #2	West Va. 8-4	ACC #3	Miami 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 7-5
Military	ACC #8	Georgia Tech 6-6	C-USA #6	U T E P 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Northwestern 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Nebraska 10-3	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	Southern Miss 8-4	MWC #3-5/Army	Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 8-4	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Maryland 7-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	California 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	N. Carolina 7-5	Big East #3-4	S. Florida 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	N.C. State 9-4	Pac 10 #4	[Notre Dame 6-6]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Florida 7-5	C-USA #1	Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	L S U 10-2	ACC #2	Florida St. 9-3
Ticket City	Big 10 #6-7	Illinois 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 8-4
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Mich. St. 11-1	SEC #2	Alabama 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Penn State 7-5	SEC #6	Miss. State 8-4
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford 11-1	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 11-2	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh 8-4
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	T C U 12-0
Sugar	BCS SEC	Auburn 12-1	BCS At-Large	Ohio State 11-1
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 6-6	MAC #1 or 2	Ohio U 9-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Okla. St. 10-2	SEC #3-6 W	Arkansas 10-2
BBVA Compass	Big East #5	Louisville 6-6	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Miami (O) 7-5]	WAC #1	Nevada 11-2
Nat’l Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Oregon 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Boise State 12-0

 

All CAPS and Italics—Team has already accepted bid to this bowl

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large entries.