PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 25, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Auburn	Ole Miss	9.3
Ball St.	Western Michigan	11.0
Baylor	Kansas St.	16.0
Bowling Green	Akron	-3.3
Central Michigan	Toledo	0.6
Davidson	La Salle	10.8
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	2.6
George Mason	Dayton	-12.9
Georgia Tech	Clemson	3.0
Iowa St.	TCU	4.5
Kent St.	Miami (O)	10.2
Loyola (Chi.)	Drake	7.9
Michigan St.	Iowa	7.2
Mississippi St.	Alabama	2.0
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	-0.6
Ohio	Buffalo	-0.6
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	-1.2
San Diego St.	Colorado St.	14.6
SMU	Memphis	0.5
Texas A&M	Kentucky	-7.4
Tulsa	Tulane	10.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	21.8
Valparaiso	Missouri St.	1.8
Wake Forest	Duke	-12.6
Wyoming	Nevada	-10.8
Xavier	DePaul	7.3

 

Key TV Games On Tuesday 

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Texas A&M	Kentucky
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Michigan St.	Iowa
7:00 PM	ESPN+	Bowling Green	Akron
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Oklahoma	Texas Tech
9:00 PM	CBSSN	SMU	Memphis
9:00 PM	SECN	Mississippi St.	Alabama

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 24, 2020

Date	2/21/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Dayton	Duke	Maryland	Florida St.
3	Creighton	Seton Hall	Louisville	Villanova
4	Kentucky	Oregon	Penn St.	West Virginia
5	Colorado	Auburn	Michigan St.	Butler
6	Iowa	Ohio St.	Michigan	Arizona
7	BYU	Marquette	Wisconsin	LSU
8	Houston	Illinois	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
9	Saint Mary’s	Florida	Virginia	Indiana
10	Rutgers	Xavier	Rhode Island	USC
11	Wichita St.	Utah St.	East Tennessee St.	Northern Iowa
12	Yale	Liberty	North Carolina St.	Oklahoma	Cincinnati	Providence
13	Stephen F. Austin	Vermont	North Texas	Akron
14	New Mexico St.	Colgate	Wright St.	Hofstra
15	Belmont	UC-Irvine	Little Rock	South Dakota St.
16	Radford	Montana	Saint Peter’s	Prairie View	St. Francis (PA)	N. C. A&T

Bubble Teams Outside The Field (in order)

 

69	Richmond
70	Stanford
71	Georgetown
72	Arkansas
73	Alabama
74	Purdue
75	Memphis
76	UCLA
77	Mississippi St.
78	Minnesota
79	UNC Greensboro
80	Furman

 

Teams on the Rise

Akron

Arizona St.

Belmont

BYU

Creighton

Dayton

East Tennessee St.

Hofstra

Kansas

Kentucky

Michigan

Montana

New Mexico St.

Prairie View

Radford

St. Francis (PA)

Saint Peter’s

South Dakota St.

Stephen F. Austin

UCLA

UNC Greensboro

Utah St.

Villanova

Virginia

Wisconsin

 

Teams on the Decline

Butler

Marquette

Oklahoma

Penn St.

Purdue

Rider

Rutgers

South Carolina

USC

West Virginia

Winthrop

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 19, 2020

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	Texas A&M	13.1
American	Navy	4.9
Arkansas St.	UL Monroe	7.0
Bradley	Missouri St.	4.9
Cincinnati	Central Florida	11.2
Citadel	Chattanooga	-8.4
Colgate	Lehigh	15.3
DePaul	Villanova	-3.4
Drake	Valparaiso	2.4
Duquesne	George Washington	11.4
East Tennessee St.	Furman	4.6
Fresno St.	Air Force	6.2
Georgetown	Providence	4.8
Georgia	Auburn	-3.4
Houston	Tulsa	10.0
Houston Baptist	Abilene Christian	-10.7
Incarnate Word	McNeese	-7.3
La Salle	Fordham	7.6
Lafayette	Boston U	-0.3
Louisville	Syracuse	10.0
Loyola (Chi.)	Illinois St.	11.4
Loyola (MD)	Army	2.6
Memphis	East Carolina	15.8
Mercer	Samford	7.5
Minnesota	Indiana	4.9
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	5.5
North Carolina St.	Duke	-8.4
North Dakota	South Dakota St.	-4.1
Northwestern St.	Nicholls St.	-4.3
Richmond	George Mason	11.8
Rutgers	Michigan	1.2
Sam Houston St.	Lamar	8.8
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-11.5
Seton Hall	Butler	5.7
Siena	Iona	7.0
South Dakota	North Dakota St.	0.3
Stephen F. Austin	Central Arkansas	14.0
Texas	TCU	4.1
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	12.0
Tulane	SMU	-6.1
UC Irvine	Long Beach St.	15.7
UMKC	California Baptist	-0.2
UNC Greensboro	Wofford	10.1
Utah St.	Wyoming	21.1
Virginia	Boston College	11.6
Virginia Tech	Miami	4.9
Wake Forest	Georgia Tech	1.3
Washington St.	California	6.6
Western Carolina	VMI	9.5

 

Wednesday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
6:30 PM	FS1	Seton Hall	Butler
7:00 PM	ESPN	Louisville	Syracuse
7:00 PM	BTN	Rutgers	Michigan
7:00 PM	ESPN+	East Tennessee St.	Furman
8:00 PM	ESPN3	South Dakota	North Dakota St.
8:30 PM	FS1	Georgetown	Providence
9:00 PM	ESPN	North Carolina St.	Duke
9:00 PM	ESPNU	Houston	Tulsa
9:00 PM	BTN	Minnesota	Indiana
9:00 PM	SECN	Mississippi St.	South Carolina

In Order To Perform A More Perfect Metric

 

If you follow this website on a semi-regular basis, you know that our R+T Rating has been the one unique metric used by us when predicting NCAA Tournament favorites.

For those of you that are new to this site, our R+T Rating was created two decades ago to estimate the extra scoring opportunities (by points) each team might be better than average in the NCAA Tournament.  We realized long ago that just like the “Money Ball” type of baseball strategies did not work well in the Major League Playoffs, the NCAA Tournament presented its own unique differences and required more than the Four Factors to determine winners when only the good to great teams remain.

The current formula for R+T consists of counting stats, but we have realized for some time that rate stats are much more accurate.  Using baseball as an example, a counting stat would be Johnny Horsehide hitting 43 home runs and driving in 118 runs.  These two stats might lead the Majors, but these stats may not reveal what we want them to reveal.  Gary Goodeye might hit just 34 home runs and drive in 95 runs, but Good Ole Gary might be a better home run hitter than Johnny.  How many times did Horsehide come to the plate?  What if Horsehide walked 34 times in 702 plate appearances while playing for a team that had three all-stars hitting in front of him, all of whom have on-base percentages of .400 or better?

What if Goodeye had 650 plate appearances playing on a team that was quite weak offensively?  Let’s say his teammates that batted in front of him had one-base percentages between .320 and .335.  Let’s say that Goodeye didn’t always get good pitches when he appeared in the batter’s box, and he walked 125 times.

Now, if we look at the number of home runs hit per at bat or plate appearances that did not end in a walk (or hit by pitch or sacrifice), we will see that Goodeye actually hit home runs at a slightly better rate than Horsehide.  As for runs batted in, that statistic is close to meaningless, because in order to drive runs in, runners must be on base.  So, the RBI stat is more reliant on the other players on the team.  It could be that Goodeye drove in runners better than Horsehide, because when we look at how many runners were on base and what base they were on, Goodeye might have had a better percentage at driving those runners in.

Back to basketball.  A team with a rebounding advantage of 43-37 has a +6 margin.  A team with a rebounding advantage of 35-30 has a +5 margin.  Using counting stats, the 43-37 team is one better than the 35-30 team.  But, the 35-30 team rebounded 53.85% of the missed shots, while the 43-37 team only rebounded 53.75% of the shots.  So, the 35-30 team is a little better than the 43-37 team on the surface.

However, it is harder to get offensive rebounds than it is to get defensive rebounds.  In fact, data throughout the calculated history of college basketball shows that an offensive rebound is worth better than 2 1/2 defensive rebounds.  The Four Factors breaks rebounding rate down into offensive and defensive rates.  

Let’s say that in a game,  Team A shot 25 of 60 for 41.7% while shooting 16-22 at the foul line for 72.7%.  Team B shot 28 of 58 for 48.3% while shooting 10-17 at the foul line for 58.8%.  Team A hit one more three point basket than Team B and one by a point.  

Now, let’s look at the rebounding for this game.  First, there were five dead ball rebounds, which we do not count as actual rebounds.  The statistical rules in basketball is that for every missed shot, there must be a rebound.  When a player is at the foul line for two shots, and he misses the first shot, there is not a real rebound.  The foul shooting team gets credited with a dead ball rebound.

To the contrary, team rebounds do count, because these are rebounds in which possession is determined.  When a missed shot ends up out of bounds before possession can be guaranteed, the team that gets possession out of bounds receives an offensive rebound.

In this game after removing the five dead ball rebounds, there were 73 rebounds to be had.  When Team A shot, there were 39 potential rebounds following misses, while when Team B shot, there were 34 potential rebounds following misses.

Looking at the stats, Team A finished with 13 offensive rebounds and 23 defensive rebounds for 36 total rebounds.  Team B finished with 11 offensive rebounds and 26 defensive rebounds for 37 total rebounds.

Team B had a counting rebounding margin of +1, while Team A had a margin of -1.  However, let’s now look at the percentage of offensive rebounds each team enjoyed.  Team A had 13 offensive rebounds out of 39 missed shots, which is 33.3% of the missed shots at their offensive end.  Team B had 11 offensive rebounds out of 34 missed shots for 32.4% of the missed shots at their offensive end. 

Looking at the rate stats, Team A may have retrieved fewer total rebounds than Team B, but they were actually the better rebounding team in this game by almost 1%.

The rate data is obviously more telling than counting data, but how can we determine a point value to substitute rate data for counting data in our R+T Rating, which in the past has picked a lot of surprise NCAA Tournament winners?

We’ve been back-testing values daily for two months.  We had to include a constant in our formulas to smooth out the results to make the numbers mean something.  Without the constant, the results were too far apart to mean something.  Tiny differences led to major spreads, and that did not tell us what we wanted.  

After about 150 to 175 different attempts, we believe (HOPE) that we have finally had a breakthrough.  The following formula will be explained after we reveal it:

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

This formula now refers to Rate Stats.  The “R” in the formula now stands for Rebounding Rate.  This is a combination of both offensive and defensive rebounding rate and it is a deviation from the norm and not just a percentage.  The norm in our experiment is 28.1%.  If a team has an offensive rebounding rate above this number, it is above average, and if it is below this number, it is below average.  Thus, the norm for defensive rebounding rate is the opposite of the above number, or 71.9%.  We then calculate our R part of the formula by taking each team’s offensive rate minus 28.1 plus their defensive rate minus 71.9 and then add the two results and divide by 2.

Example: Today, Houston has an offensive rebounding rate of 38.5%, which is 10.4% higher than average (we experimented with using the actual percentage better which would have been 37% better than average, but we never arrived at a usable final number doing so.)  Houston’s defensive rebounding rate is 74.5%, which is 2.6% better than average. 

We then take both numbers (+10.4 & +2.6), sum the numbers, and divide by 2 to get +6.5.  That would be the R number for Houston in the new formula.

Let’s now update our formula:

((6.5*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

The rest of this formula uses the same system as above.  The norm for steals (S) is 9.2% for both offense and defense.

Houston has a 7.4% steal rate, which is 1.8% below average.  Houston’s opponents have a 7.5% steal rate against them, which is 1.7% above average for Houston.  Once again, we update the formula.

 

((6.5*8)+(-1.8*2+((5- [-1.7])*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

Now, we need Turnover rates, both offensive and defensive.  The norm for turnover rate is 16.9%.  Obviously, the lower the offensive turnover rate is, the better, and the higher the defensive turnover rate is, the better.  Houston’s offensive turnover rate is 14.9%, which is 2.0% better than average.  The Cougars’ defensive turnover rate is 15.8%, which is 1.1% below average.  We sum the two numbers and divide by 2:  2.0 + (-1.1) = 0.9 and divided by 2 = 0.45.  The 0.45 is now our T in the equation and we are ready to solve the equation.  The 2.75 by the way is our constant that when used brings the results into what we hope is a usable formula.

 

((6.5*8)+(-1.8*2+((5- [-1.7])*2)+(.45*4)))/2.75

 

We will simplify the formula in case you have math anxiety like one of our PiRate lasses.

 

((52)+(-3.6+(6.7*2)+(1.8)))/2.75

 

(52+9.8+1.8)/2.75

 

63.6/2.75 = 23.13

 

We will have some growing pains with this new formula, and there’s a good chance that the numbers will be tweaked in the future, but this is the Rate Version of the R+T Rating that we will use in the NCAA Tournament.  Because it is an experiment, we will also use the original R+T formula when we issue our Bracketnomics 2020 edition.

 

Here are the two formulas together for you to compare.

 

Original R+T using actual counting margins and averages

 

(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T

R = Rebounding Margin
S = Average Steals Per Game
T = Turnover Margin

 

New Experimental R+T using rate the percentage number difference from the norm

 

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

The 2020 Norms

Offensive Rebounding:        28.1%

Defensive Rebounding:       71.9%

Steals (O&D):                         9.2%

Turnovers (O&D)                16.9%

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 4, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Rhode Island	Massachusetts	15.7
Boston College	Duke	-17.2
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	3.2
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	7.0
DePaul	Xavier	0.8
Maryland	Rutgers	7.4
Michigan	Ohio St.	1.1
Michigan St.	Penn St.	7.9
Fairfield	Monmouth	0.1
Kent St.	Ball St.	3.5
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	-1.7
Miami (O)	Western Michigan	4.3
Toledo	Northern Illinois	6.0
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	1.5
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	-0.8
Wyoming	Boise St.	-10.7
Nevada	Air Force	10.4
Arkansas	Auburn	3.4
Alabama	Tennessee	6.1
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	4.7
Texas A&M	Missouri	-0.9

 

Tuesday’s Best TV Games

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	FS1	Maryland	Rutgers
7:00 PM	SECN	Arkansas	Auburn
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Michigan	Ohio St.
7:00 PM	ESPNU	Alabama	Tennessee
8:00 PM	BTN	Michigan St.	Penn St.
9:00 PM	ESPN	Kentucky	Mississippi St.
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Texas Tech	Oklahoma

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 24 , 2020

Date	1/24/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.	Kansas
2	Florida St.	Duke	Michigan St.	Seton Hall
3	West Virginia	Louisville	Oregon	Dayton
4	Villanova	Butler	Maryland	Iowa
5	Kentucky	Arizona	Auburn	Colorado
6	Creighton	Penn St.	Wisconsin	Marquette
7	LSU	Rutgers	Illinois	Wichita St.
8	Ohio St.	Stanford	Indiana	Arkansas
9	Houston	Michigan	USC	Florida
10	Memphis	Texas Tech	BYU	Saint Mary’s
11	Oklahoma	North Carolina St.	East Tennessee St.	Virginia Tech	VCU
12	Liberty	Akron	North Texas	Minnesota	DePaul
13	Stephen F. Austin	New Mexico St.	Vermont	Harvard
14	Loyola (Chi.)	Colgate	William & Mary	Wright St.
15	Little Rock	UC-Irvine	Murray St.	South Dakota St.
16	Montana	Winthrop	Monmouth	Norfolk St.	Long Island	Prairie View

 

First Four Out
Georgetown	Richmond	Purdue	Xavier

 

Next Four Out
Tennessee	Alabama	Rhode Island	Northern Iowa

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 22, 2020

Spreads For Games Being Played Wednesday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Xavier	Georgetown	2.6
Auburn	South Carolina	10.9
Louisville	Georgia Tech	13.6
Dayton	St. Bonaventure	16.9
Michigan	Penn St.	4.0
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	1.4
Richmond	La Salle	11.7
Rhode Island	Duquesne	4.3
Fordham	George Washington	0.3
Stony Brook	Binghamton	17.9
Hartford	UMBC	4.6
Albany	UMass Lowell	4.7
Notre Dame	Syracuse	3.2
Temple	Cincinnati	0.1
Marist	Manhattan	-4.2
Loyola (MD)	American	0.4
Lafayette	Army	9.7
Boston U	Navy	5.8
Evansville	Drake	-6.1
Chattanooga	Citadel	10.2
Mercer	Western Carolina	-2.0
Furman	Samford	16.3
Maine	Vermont	-15.9
Davidson	Saint Louis	3.3
George Mason	Massachusetts	5.9
Marshall	Western Kentucky	-0.2
Wofford	VMI	11.8
Holy Cross	Lehigh	-3.5
Northwestern St.	Stephen F. Austin	-10.5
Little Rock	Troy	10.0
Incarnate Word	Lamar	-7.1
Nicholls St.	Houston Baptist	16.4
Loyola (Chi)	Indiana St.	5.1
Texas A&M-CC	New Orleans	4.6
SMU	East Carolina	15.3
Bradley	Illinois St.	11.2
SE Louisiana	McNeese St.	-3.5
South Dakota St.	North Dakota St.	3.6
Virginia Tech	North Carolina	5.4
Seton Hall	Providence	11.4
Sam Houston St.	Abilene Christian	5.3
Tulsa	Memphis	-4.5
DePaul	Creighton	0.5
Pittsburgh	Boston College	10.9
Iowa	Rutgers	5.6
Vanderbilt	Alabama	-8.3
Southern Illinois	Northern Iowa	-6.6
Colorado St.	Fresno St.	4.4
California Baptist	Chicago St.	25.3
UC Davis	Cal St. Fullerton	5.1
Long Beach St.	UC Irvine	-9.6
UCSB	Cal St. Northridge	9.9
Nevada	UNLV	5.1

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: Final For 2019-2020 Season

Final PiRate Ratings for 2019-2020

January 14, 2020

 

Congratulations to the LSU Tigers–2019-2020 NCAA FBS National Champions

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	L S U	142.1	140.5	142.9	141.8
2	Ohio St.	141.3	140.2	142.0	141.2
3	Clemson	139.0	137.5	140.2	138.9
4	Alabama	130.2	127.4	130.7	129.4
5	Georgia	126.5	124.9	126.7	126.0
6	Florida	125.1	122.8	124.9	124.2
7	Michigan	124.2	122.6	124.3	123.7
8	Wisconsin	122.6	122.5	123.0	122.7
9	Oregon	122.1	122.0	122.9	122.3
10	Notre Dame	122.1	121.4	122.5	122.0
11	Utah	121.8	120.9	122.4	121.7
12	Penn St.	121.5	120.8	121.8	121.4
13	Auburn	121.7	119.9	121.2	120.9
14	Oklahoma	121.1	120.5	120.8	120.8
15	Iowa	120.1	118.8	119.9	119.6
16	Minnesota	118.4	118.0	118.0	118.1
17	Baylor	117.3	117.1	116.4	116.9
18	Washington	115.5	115.2	116.4	115.7
19	Texas	113.6	113.9	113.5	113.7
20	Texas A&M	115.0	112.5	113.2	113.6
21	Kentucky	112.5	111.6	112.0	112.0
22	Central Florida	111.7	111.2	112.2	111.7
23	Iowa St.	111.6	111.7	111.2	111.5
24	Kansas St.	111.1	111.1	110.9	111.0
25	Virginia Tech	110.4	110.2	110.8	110.5
26	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
27	North Carolina	110.2	110.1	110.9	110.4
28	Oklahoma St.	110.4	110.8	109.8	110.3
29	Memphis	110.0	110.1	110.7	110.3
30	U S C	109.3	109.7	109.9	109.7
31	Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4
32	Appalachian St.	109.1	108.7	108.3	108.7
33	Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6
34	Washington St.	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
35	T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4
36	Cincinnati	108.3	107.9	108.5	108.2
37	Virginia	108.1	107.9	108.5	108.2
38	South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0
39	Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.4	108.0
40	Mississippi St.	108.0	104.9	111.0	108.0
41	Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6
42	Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.8	107.1
43	Air Force	105.8	107.5	106.9	106.7
44	Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1
45	Boise St.	105.7	106.1	106.0	105.9
46	California	104.7	104.7	105.3	104.9
47	Florida St.	104.7	104.4	104.6	104.6
48	Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4
49	Florida Atlantic	103.7	103.9	105.0	104.2
50	Navy	102.9	105.1	104.4	104.1
51	Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9
52	Louisiana	103.0	103.1	102.6	102.9
53	Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.2	102.9
54	Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7
55	SMU	102.4	102.3	103.0	102.6
56	West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5
57	Miami (Fla.)	102.3	101.8	102.6	102.2
58	Louisville	102.0	101.5	102.2	101.9
59	Pittsburgh	102.1	101.5	101.9	101.8
60	BYU	101.9	102.1	101.2	101.7
61	Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6
62	Illinois	101.2	101.6	100.7	101.2
63	Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0
64	Tulane	100.6	100.8	101.2	100.9
65	San Diego St.	100.1	101.7	100.1	100.6
66	Wyoming	99.7	101.4	100.1	100.4
67	Boston College	99.5	99.0	99.6	99.4
68	Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2
69	Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0
70	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
71	U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4
72	Ohio	98.4	97.8	98.9	98.4
73	Georgia Southern	97.9	98.0	97.5	97.8
74	Hawaii	97.0	98.3	96.4	97.2
75	Temple	96.9	96.8	98.0	97.2
76	Western Michigan	97.4	96.5	96.9	96.9
77	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9
78	Buffalo	95.7	96.4	97.2	96.4
79	Louisiana Tech	96.1	96.3	96.2	96.2
80	Western Kentucky	95.5	96.0	96.7	96.1
81	Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6
82	Utah St.	95.6	95.2	95.7	95.5
83	Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9
84	Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1
85	Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7
86	Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7
87	Army	92.8	93.0	92.0	92.6
88	Southern Miss.	92.7	92.0	92.7	92.5
89	Marshall	91.9	91.6	92.4	92.0
90	North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8
91	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
92	Liberty	90.6	91.9	91.0	91.1
93	Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0
94	Arkansas St.	90.5	91.0	90.4	90.6
95	Miami (Ohio)	90.6	89.9	91.0	90.5
96	Central Michigan	89.6	90.2	90.6	90.1
97	Nevada	89.8	91.1	89.1	90.0
98	Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8
99	Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3
100	Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3
101	Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2
102	South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0
103	Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9
104	San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6
105	Florida Int’l.	88.6	88.4	88.6	88.5
106	Eastern Michigan	88.1	88.3	88.6	88.4
107	Georgia St.	88.2	89.0	87.2	88.1
108	Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7
109	Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4
110	U A B	86.6	88.2	87.2	87.3
111	Charlotte	87.0	87.3	87.6	87.3
112	Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9
114	North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2
115	Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4
116	U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2
117	Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0
118	Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8
119	East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8
120	New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0
121	Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3
122	South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8
123	Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8
124	New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0
125	Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4
126	Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0
127	U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6
128	Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8
129	Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.7	111.2	112.2	111.7	6-2	10-3
Cincinnati	108.3	107.9	108.5	108.2	7-1	11-3
Temple	96.9	96.8	98.0	97.2	5-3	8-5
South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0	2-6	4-8
East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8	1-7	4-8
Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	110.0	110.1	110.7	110.3	7-1	12-2
Navy	102.9	105.1	104.4	104.1	7-1	11-2
SMU	102.4	102.3	103.0	102.6	6-2	10-3
Tulane	100.6	100.8	101.2	100.9	3-5	7-6
Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6	2-6	4-8
Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9	2-6	4-8
AAC Averages	97.0	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.0	137.5	140.2	138.9	8-0	14-1
Florida St.	104.7	104.4	104.6	104.6	4-4	6-7
Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.2	102.9	4-4	8-5
Louisville	102.0	101.5	102.2	101.9	5-3	8-5
Boston College	99.5	99.0	99.6	99.4	4-4	7-6
Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2	2-6	5-7
North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8	1-7	4-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia Tech	110.4	110.2	110.8	110.5	5-3	8-5
North Carolina	110.2	110.1	110.9	110.4	4-4	7-6
Virginia	108.1	107.9	108.5	108.2	6-2	9-5
Miami (Fla.)	102.3	101.8	102.6	102.2	4-4	6-7
Pittsburgh	102.1	101.5	101.9	101.8	4-4	8-5
Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8	2-6	3-9
ACC Averages	104.5	103.9	104.6	104.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.1	120.5	120.8	120.8	8-1	12-2
Baylor	117.3	117.1	116.4	116.9	8-1	11-3
Texas	113.6	113.9	113.5	113.7	5-4	8-5
Iowa St.	111.6	111.7	111.2	111.5	5-4	7-6
Kansas St.	111.1	111.1	110.9	111.0	5-4	8-5
Oklahoma St.	110.4	110.8	109.8	110.3	5-4	8-5
T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4	3-6	5-7
Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5	3-6	5-7
Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.7	109.0	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	141.3	140.2	142.0	141.2	9-0	13-1
Michigan	124.2	122.6	124.3	123.7	6-3	9-4
Penn St.	121.5	120.8	121.8	121.4	7-2	11-2
Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4	5-4	8-5
Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.8	107.1	4-5	7-6
Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7	1-8	3-9
Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4	0-9	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	122.6	122.5	123.0	122.7	7-2	10-4
Iowa	120.1	118.8	119.9	119.6	6-3	10-3
Minnesota	118.4	118.0	118.0	118.1	7-2	11-2
Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1	3-6	5-7
Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9	3-6	4-8
Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7	1-8	3-9
Illinois	101.2	101.6	100.7	101.2	4-5	6-7
Big Ten Averages	111.4	110.7	110.9	111.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	103.7	103.9	105.0	104.2	7-1	11-3
Western Kentucky	95.5	96.0	96.7	96.1	6-2	8-5
Marshall	91.9	91.6	92.4	92.0	6-2	8-5
Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9	3-5	4-8
Florida Int’l.	88.6	88.4	88.6	88.5	4-4	6-7
Charlotte	87.0	87.3	87.6	87.3	5-3	7-6
Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	96.1	96.3	96.2	96.2	6-2	10-3
Southern Miss.	92.7	92.0	92.7	92.5	5-3	7-6
U A B	86.6	88.2	87.2	87.3	6-2	9-5
North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2	3-5	4-8
Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8	3-5	3-9
Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8	3-5	4-8
U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6	0-8	1-11
CUSA Averages	87.0	87.5	87.3	87.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	122.1	121.4	122.5	122.0	x	11-2
BYU	101.9	102.1	101.2	101.7	x	7-6
Army	92.8	93.0	92.0	92.6	x	5-8
Liberty	90.6	91.9	91.0	91.1	x	8-5
New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0	x	2-10
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9	x	1-11
Indep. Averages	89.9	90.6	89.6	90.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	98.4	97.8	98.9	98.4	5-3	7-6
Buffalo	95.7	96.4	97.2	96.4	5-3	8-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.6	89.9	91.0	90.5	6-2	8-6
Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3	5-3	6-6
Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8	2-6	3-9
Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3	0-8	0-12
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.4	96.5	96.9	96.9	5-3	7-6
Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0	4-4	5-7
Central Michigan	89.6	90.2	90.6	90.1	6-2	8-6
Eastern Michigan	88.1	88.3	88.6	88.4	3-5	6-7
Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4	4-4	5-7
Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0	3-5	6-6
MAC Averages	86.9	86.6	87.1	86.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Air Force	105.8	107.5	106.9	106.7	7-1	11-2
Boise St.	105.7	106.1	106.0	105.9	8-0	12-2
Wyoming	99.7	101.4	100.1	100.4	4-4	8-5
Utah St.	95.6	95.2	95.7	95.5	6-2	7-6
Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	100.1	101.7	100.1	100.6	5-3	10-3
Hawaii	97.0	98.3	96.4	97.2	5-3	10-5
Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7	2-6	4-8
Nevada	89.8	91.1	89.1	90.0	4-4	7-6
San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6	2-6	5-7
U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2	2-6	4-8
MWC Averages	93.8	95.2	93.8	94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	122.1	122.0	122.9	122.3	8-1	12-2
Washington	115.5	115.2	116.4	115.7	4-5	8-5
Washington St.	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5	3-6	6-7
California	104.7	104.7	105.3	104.9	4-5	8-5
Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6	4-5	5-7
Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0	3-6	4-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	121.8	120.9	122.4	121.7	8-1	11-3
U S C	109.3	109.7	109.9	109.7	7-2	8-5
Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.4	108.0	4-5	8-5
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6	3-6	5-7
U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4	4-5	4-8
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9	2-7	4-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.0	107.5	107.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.5	124.9	126.7	126.0	7-1	12-2
Florida	125.1	122.8	124.9	124.2	6-2	11-2
Kentucky	112.5	111.6	112.0	112.0	3-5	8-5
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4	5-3	8-5
Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6	3-5	6-6
South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0	3-5	4-8
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	142.1	140.5	142.9	141.8	8-0	15-0
Alabama	130.2	127.4	130.7	129.4	6-2	11-2
Auburn	121.7	119.9	121.2	120.9	5-3	9-4
Texas A&M	115.0	112.5	113.2	113.6	4-4	8-5
Mississippi St.	108.0	104.9	111.0	108.0	3-5	6-7
Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6	2-6	4-8
Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.1	112.4	113.9	113.5
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	109.1	108.7	108.3	108.7	7-1	13-1
Georgia Southern	97.9	98.0	97.5	97.8	5-3	7-6
Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2	3-5	5-7
Georgia St.	88.2	89.0	87.2	88.1	4-4	7-6
Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	103.0	103.1	102.6	102.9	7-1	11-3
Arkansas St.	90.5	91.0	90.4	90.6	5-3	8-5
Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9	4-4	5-7
Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3	2-6	3-9
South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8	1-7	2-10
SBC Averages	90.8	91.4	90.3	90.8

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.5
2	Big Ten	111.0
3	Big 12	109.4
4	Pac-12	107.3
5	Atlantic Coast	104.3
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.3
8	Sun Belt	90.8
9	Independents	90.1
10	Conference USA	87.3
11	Mid-American	86.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl & Playoff Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Marshall]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Wyoming
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Navy	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Tulane	Southern Miss.
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	[Eastern Michigan]
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	[Air Force]	Washington St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Texas
Cotton	At-large	At-large	[Penn St.]	Memphis
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Florida Atlantic	[Liberty]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	California	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	Tennessee	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Texas A&M
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Washington
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Florida Int’l.]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Alabama	Michigan
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Florida St.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	Nevada
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Kent St.]	Utah St.
Lending Tree	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Louisiana
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Oklahoma
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	LSU
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Spread

Saturday	December 14
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army	6.2	8.3	8.2

Game played in Philadelphia

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	141.7	140.8	142.5	141.7
2	Clemson	140.1	138.5	141.5	140.0
3	L S U	137.6	135.7	138.0	137.1
4	Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9
5	Georgia	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
6	Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3
7	Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0
8	Utah	124.3	123.4	124.9	124.2
9	Oklahoma	123.1	122.7	122.9	122.9
10	Wisconsin	122.7	122.6	123.1	122.8
11	Oregon	122.0	121.9	122.8	122.2
12	Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2
13	Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1
14	Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6
15	Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8
16	Baylor	117.5	117.5	116.7	117.2
17	Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8
18	Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7
19	Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3
20	Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9
21	Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3
22	Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8
23	Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6
24	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
25	Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2
26	Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7
27	Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.1	110.5
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3
30	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9
31	Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
32	Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4
33	Appalachian St.	109.4	108.9	108.6	109.0
34	Virginia	107.3	107.2	107.6	107.4
35	Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6
36	T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4
37	Boise St.	108.1	108.5	108.4	108.3
38	South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0
39	North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9
40	Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8
41	Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6
42	Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1
43	Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1
44	Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.1	105.8
45	Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5
46	SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0
47	Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5
49	Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4
50	Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9
51	California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8
52	Louisiana	103.1	103.4	102.8	103.1
53	Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9
54	Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7
55	West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5
56	Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3
57	Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2
58	BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0
59	Florida Atlantic	101.3	101.5	102.6	101.8
60	Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8
61	Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6
62	Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5
63	Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0
64	Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0
65	Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9
66	Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7
67	Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3
68	Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2
69	Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0
70	Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0
71	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
72	U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4
73	Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3
74	San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1
75	Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1
76	Hawaii	96.8	98.1	96.0	97.0
77	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9
78	Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8
79	Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9
80	Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6
81	Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4
82	Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9
83	Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1
84	Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0
85	Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9
86	Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4
87	Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7
88	Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7
89	Central Michigan	92.1	92.7	93.1	92.6
90	Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1
91	North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
93	Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	90.5	89.6	90.8	90.3
95	Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1
96	Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0
97	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0
98	Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8
99	Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3
100	Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3
101	Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3
102	Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2
103	Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1
104	South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0
105	Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9
106	San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6
107	Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3
108	Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0
109	Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7
110	Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4
111	U A B	86.3	88.0	86.9	87.1
112	Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9
114	North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2
115	Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4
116	U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2
117	Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0
118	Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8
119	East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8
120	New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0
121	Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3
122	South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8
123	Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8
124	New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0
125	Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4
126	Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0
127	U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6
128	Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8
129	Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9
Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Pac-12	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.1
10	Conf. USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.1
PiRate Guess at Top 6
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Oklahoma
5	Georgia
6	Utah
Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Boise St.
3	Appalachian St.
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Miami (O)

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6	6-2	9-3
Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.1	105.8	7-1	10-3
Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7	5-3	8-4
South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0	2-6	4-8
East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8	1-7	4-8
Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.1	110.5	7-1	12-1
SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0	6-2	10-2
Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5	7-1	9-2
Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9	3-5	6-6
Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6	2-6	4-8
Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9	2-6	4-8
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	140.1	138.5	141.5	140.0	8-0	13-0
Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8	4-4	6-6
Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9	4-4	8-4
Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8	4-4	6-6
Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0	5-3	7-5
Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2	2-6	5-7
North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8	1-7	4-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7	5-3	8-4
North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9	4-4	6-6
Virginia	107.3	107.2	107.6	107.4	6-2	9-4
Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5	4-4	6-6
Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2	4-4	7-5
Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8	2-6	3-9
ACC Averages	104.6	104.0	104.7	104.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.1	122.7	122.9	122.9	8-1	12-1
Baylor	117.5	117.5	116.7	117.2	8-1	11-2
Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9	5-4	7-5
Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3	5-4	8-4
Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2	5-4	7-5
Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3	5-4	8-4
T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4	3-6	5-7
Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5	3-6	5-7
Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	110.0	109.3	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	141.7	140.8	142.5	141.7	9-0	13-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3	6-3	9-3
Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1	7-2	10-2
Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4	5-4	8-4
Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1	4-5	6-6
Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7	1-8	3-9
Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4	0-9	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	122.7	122.6	123.1	122.8	7-2	10-3
Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8	7-2	10-2
Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1	3-6	5-7
Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9	3-6	4-8
Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7	1-8	3-9
Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3	4-5	6-6
Big Ten Averages	111.4	110.8	110.9	111.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	101.3	101.5	102.6	101.8	7-1	10-3
Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9	6-2	8-4
Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1	4-4	6-6
Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3	5-3	7-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9	6-2	9-3
Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4	5-3	7-5
U A B	86.3	88.0	86.9	87.1	6-2	9-4
North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2	3-5	4-8
Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8	3-5	3-9
Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8	3-5	4-8
U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6	0-8	1-11
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6	x	10-2
BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0	x	7-5
Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0	x	5-7
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0	x	7-5
New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0	x	2-10
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9	x	1-11
Indep. Averages	89.8	90.5	89.4	89.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4	5-3	7-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.5	89.6	90.8	90.3	6-2	8-5
Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3	5-3	6-6
Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8	2-6	3-9
Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3	0-8	0-12
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1	5-3	7-5
Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9	6-2	8-5
Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0	4-4	5-7
Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0	3-5	6-6
Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4	4-4	5-7
Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0	3-5	6-6
MAC Averages	87.0	86.7	87.2	87.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	108.1	108.5	108.4	108.3	8-0	12-1
Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3	4-4	7-5
Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8	6-2	7-5
Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1	5-3	9-3
Hawaii	96.8	98.1	96.0	97.0	5-3	9-5
Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7	2-6	4-8
Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1	4-4	7-5
San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6	2-6	5-7
U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2	2-6	4-8
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.6	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	122.0	121.9	122.8	122.2	8-1	11-2
Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3	4-5	7-5
Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7	3-6	6-6
California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6	4-5	5-7
Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0	3-6	4-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	124.3	123.4	124.9	124.2	8-1	11-2
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5	7-2	8-4
Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8	4-5	7-5
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6	3-6	5-7
U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4	4-5	4-8
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9	2-7	4-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	107.2	107.7	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	7-1	11-2
Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0	6-2	10-2
Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8	3-5	7-5
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4	5-3	7-5
Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6	3-5	6-6
South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0	3-5	4-8
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	137.6	135.7	138.0	137.1	8-0	13-0
Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9	6-2	10-2
Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2	5-3	9-3
Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7	4-4	7-5
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9	3-5	6-6
Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6	2-6	4-8
Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.1	112.2	113.8	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	109.4	108.9	108.6	109.0	7-1	12-1
Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0	5-3	7-5
Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3	4-4	7-5
Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2	3-5	5-7
Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	103.1	103.4	102.8	103.1	7-1	10-3
Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0	5-3	7-5
Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9	4-4	5-7
Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3	2-6	3-9
South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8	1-7	2-10
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Ohio	-27.7	-27.1	-29.3
Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	-9.4	-9.2	-9.0
Thursday	November 28
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	3.7	1.2	7.5
Friday	November 29
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas	Missouri	-20.0	-17.5	-19.7
Ball St.	Miami (O)	1.4	2.0	1.1
Buffalo	Bowling Green	27.4	28.6	29.1
Central Florida	South Florida	24.1	22.7	24.1
Central Michigan	Toledo	5.0	5.7	5.7
Colorado St.	Boise St.	-18.1	-15.0	-18.0
Eastern Michigan	Kent St.	3.3	3.6	3.3
Memphis	Cincinnati	7.2	7.9	8.2
Nebraska	Iowa	-9.5	-7.8	-10.2
South Alabama	Arkansas St.	-13.9	-11.7	-14.0
TCU	West Virginia	10.3	12.6	11.2
Texas	Texas Tech	6.6	6.5	7.0
Troy	Appalachian St.	-13.8	-12.7	-14.5
Virginia	Virginia Tech	-1.7	-1.8	-2.5
Washington	Washington St.	2.2	2.4	2.6
Saturday	November 30
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Wyoming	7.8	7.7	8.3
Arizona St.	Arizona	12.6	12.5	13.6
Auburn	Alabama	-5.0	-3.7	-5.9
Coastal Carolina	Texas St.	10.9	11.6	11.3
Duke	Miami (Fla.)	-4.6	-5.0	-6.1
East Carolina	Tulsa	-6.6	-5.9	-7.9
Florida	Florida St.	22.5	20.0	22.1
Florida Atlantic	Southern Miss.	6.6	7.7	7.3
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	7.3	6.2	7.5
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-34.6	-34.0	-34.5
Hawaii	Army	4.6	5.7	4.3
Houston	Navy	0.9	-0.5	1.8
Illinois	Northwestern	4.6	6.4	6.1
Kansas	Baylor	-14.0	-13.1	-13.3
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	-0.4	-1.2	-0.7
Kentucky	Louisville	9.2	8.1	8.1
Liberty	New Mexico St.	16.5	15.7	16.8
Louisiana	UL-Monroe	19.5	19.3	19.7
Louisiana Tech	Texas-San Antonio	20.7	19.1	20.5
LSU	Texas A&M	16.0	15.2	16.6
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	6.3	6.3	7.2
Michigan	Ohio St.	-9.6	-9.9	-10.1
Michigan St.	Maryland	18.6	18.8	19.7
Minnesota	Wisconsin	1.3	1.3	0.9
Nevada	UNLV	8.8	8.8	8.7
New Mexico	Utah St.	-14.8	-12.0	-16.7
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-10.4	-11.2	-11.6
North Texas	UAB	0.3	-2.1	-0.4
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	-10.2	-8.8	-10.0
Old Dominion	Charlotte	-12.0	-12.2	-12.6
Oregon	Oregon St.	20.2	19.2	21.2
Penn St.	Rutgers	42.0	41.6	43.5
Pittsburgh	Boston College	5.9	6.0	6.1
Purdue	Indiana	-4.7	-3.9	-5.1
San Diego St.	BYU	-2.5	-1.0	-2.4
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	-3.4	-2.6	-3.4
SMU	Tulane	6.7	5.9	6.5
South Carolina	Clemson	-27.0	-26.9	-29.2
Stanford	Notre Dame	-15.5	-15.4	-16.3
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-0.6	-0.7	-1.8
Temple	Connecticut	30.4	27.2	32.2
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	19.4	20.7	20.4
UCLA	California	-1.9	-1.9	-2.7
Utah	Colorado	31.2	30.4	31.8
UTEP	Rice	-12.2	-9.6	-11.5
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	8.1	9.5	9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	139.8	138.9	140.7	139.8
2	Clemson	138.0	136.1	139.2	137.8
3	L S U	131.3	129.1	131.3	130.6
4	Alabama	129.1	126.0	129.6	128.2
5	Michigan	127.2	126.0	127.7	127.0
6	Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
7	Georgia	127.2	125.4	127.3	126.6
8	Florida	125.9	123.3	125.7	124.9
9	Penn St.	123.5	122.6	123.5	123.2
10	Oklahoma	122.3	121.6	121.7	121.9
11	Auburn	122.6	120.8	122.2	121.9
12	Wisconsin	120.7	120.4	120.6	120.6
13	Oregon	119.7	119.6	120.7	120.0
14	Notre Dame	120.3	119.3	120.4	120.0
15	Minnesota	119.0	118.7	118.5	118.7
16	Iowa	118.6	117.1	118.4	118.0
17	Texas A&M	118.3	116.9	117.7	117.7
18	Iowa St.	114.2	114.7	114.2	114.3
19	Baylor	113.7	113.8	113.1	113.5
20	Washington	112.0	111.6	112.7	112.1
21	Virginia Tech	111.3	111.4	112.3	111.7
22	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
23	Central Florida	111.5	110.8	111.8	111.4
24	Washington St.	111.4	110.7	111.6	111.2
25	Oklahoma St.	110.6	111.3	110.2	110.7
26	Kansas St.	110.8	110.5	110.5	110.6
27	Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.2	110.6
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Mississippi St.	109.9	106.6	113.7	110.1
30	Texas	109.9	110.1	109.6	109.9
31	Indiana	110.1	109.1	109.9	109.7
32	T C U	108.8	111.0	109.2	109.7
33	Kentucky	110.0	108.7	108.9	109.2
34	Missouri	110.2	107.7	109.0	109.0
35	Boise St.	108.5	108.7	108.8	108.7
36	South Carolina	109.5	107.7	108.5	108.6
37	Michigan St.	108.9	108.1	108.2	108.4
38	Virginia	108.1	108.1	108.3	108.2
39	Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.5	108.0
40	Ole Miss	107.7	106.9	107.7	107.4
41	Appalachian St.	107.5	106.8	106.8	107.0
42	North Carolina	106.1	106.0	106.7	106.3
43	Miami (Fla.)	106.0	105.6	106.9	106.2
44	Nebraska	106.1	106.3	105.2	105.9
45	Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.0	105.8
46	Texas Tech	105.8	106.2	105.1	105.7
47	Air Force	104.1	105.8	105.0	105.0
48	Florida St.	104.8	104.8	105.0	104.9
49	Illinois	104.6	105.4	104.5	104.8
50	SMU	104.3	104.1	104.7	104.4
51	Louisiana	103.8	104.2	103.5	103.8
52	Purdue	103.9	103.7	103.3	103.6
53	Pittsburgh	103.6	103.1	103.7	103.5
54	California	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
55	Wake Forest	103.2	102.5	103.5	103.1
56	BYU	102.6	102.8	102.3	102.6
57	Louisville	102.3	102.1	102.3	102.2
58	West Virginia	101.6	101.4	101.0	101.3
59	Oregon St.	101.0	101.9	101.0	101.3
60	Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.1	101.3
61	Northwestern	101.5	100.5	99.9	100.7
62	Tulane	100.1	100.8	100.7	100.5
63	Boston College	100.7	100.1	100.6	100.5
64	Navy	98.6	100.9	99.6	99.7
65	Temple	99.3	99.0	100.5	99.6
66	Wyoming	98.8	100.6	99.2	99.5
67	Syracuse	99.6	98.8	98.7	99.0
68	U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8
69	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
70	Florida Atlantic	97.9	97.9	98.9	98.2
71	Western Michigan	98.5	97.6	98.2	98.1
72	Duke	98.4	97.5	97.8	97.9
73	San Diego St.	97.1	98.7	96.9	97.6
74	Houston	96.5	97.4	98.4	97.4
75	Kansas	96.7	97.7	96.8	97.1
76	Utah St.	96.9	96.4	97.5	96.9
77	Arizona	96.9	96.6	96.4	96.6
78	Georgia Southern	96.7	96.6	96.2	96.5
79	Western Kentucky	95.4	96.2	96.9	96.2
80	Ohio	95.9	95.1	96.4	95.8
81	Hawaii	95.6	97.0	94.8	95.8
82	Army	95.5	95.7	95.0	95.4
83	Buffalo	93.7	94.3	95.1	94.3
84	Louisiana Tech	94.1	94.3	94.1	94.1
85	Southern Miss.	94.3	93.2	94.6	94.0
86	North Carolina St.	94.2	93.3	93.6	93.7
87	Tulsa	92.8	93.6	94.0	93.5
88	Fresno St.	92.6	93.6	92.6	92.9
89	Marshall	92.2	92.0	93.0	92.4
90	Maryland	93.3	92.3	91.5	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.7	92.1	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.8	91.2	91.2	91.7
93	Georgia St.	90.9	91.9	90.2	91.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	91.2	90.2	91.5	91.0
95	Troy	91.2	91.6	89.8	90.9
96	Georgia Tech	91.1	89.9	91.3	90.8
97	Nevada	90.4	92.0	89.9	90.8
98	Ball St.	90.1	89.7	90.1	90.0
99	Central Michigan	89.2	89.9	90.2	89.7
100	U A B	88.8	90.8	89.5	89.7
101	Liberty	89.3	90.4	89.4	89.7
102	South Florida	88.9	89.6	89.2	89.2
103	Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.1	89.4	89.1
104	Florida Int’l.	88.9	88.7	88.8	88.8
105	Colorado St.	87.4	90.7	87.9	88.7
106	Middle Tennessee	88.8	88.2	88.8	88.6
107	San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
108	Kent St.	88.0	88.0	88.6	88.2
109	Charlotte	87.7	88.0	88.2	88.0
110	Coastal Carolina	87.3	88.4	87.0	87.6
111	Arkansas	87.7	87.6	86.8	87.4
112	Toledo	86.7	86.7	87.0	86.8
113	North Texas	86.6	86.2	86.6	86.5
114	Northern Illinois	86.6	85.9	86.7	86.4
115	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.3	85.9
116	East Carolina	83.7	85.1	83.7	84.2
117	Rutgers	84.5	84.0	83.0	83.8
118	U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
119	Rice	82.3	83.3	82.0	82.5
120	New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
121	Texas St.	78.8	79.3	78.2	78.8
122	Texas-San Antonio	75.9	77.7	76.1	76.5
123	New Mexico St.	75.8	77.7	75.6	76.3
124	South Alabama	75.3	77.8	75.1	76.1
125	Old Dominion	73.7	73.8	73.6	73.7
126	Connecticut	71.4	74.2	70.8	72.1
127	U T E P	68.6	72.2	69.0	69.9
128	Bowling Green	69.2	68.6	68.9	68.9
129	Akron	66.8	66.5	65.7	66.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	111.5	110.8	111.8	111.4
Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.0	105.8
Temple	99.3	99.0	100.5	99.6
South Florida	88.9	89.6	89.2	89.2
East Carolina	83.7	85.1	83.7	84.2
Connecticut	71.4	74.2	70.8	72.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.2	110.6
SMU	104.3	104.1	104.7	104.4
Tulane	100.1	100.8	100.7	100.5
Navy	98.6	100.9	99.6	99.7
Houston	96.5	97.4	98.4	97.4
Tulsa	92.8	93.6	94.0	93.5
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	138.0	136.1	139.2	137.8
Florida St.	104.8	104.8	105.0	104.9
Wake Forest	103.2	102.5	103.5	103.1
Louisville	102.3	102.1	102.3	102.2
Boston College	100.7	100.1	100.6	100.5
Syracuse	99.6	98.8	98.7	99.0
North Carolina St.	94.2	93.3	93.6	93.7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	111.3	111.4	112.3	111.7
Virginia	108.1	108.1	108.3	108.2
North Carolina	106.1	106.0	106.7	106.3
Miami (Fla.)	106.0	105.6	106.9	106.2
Pittsburgh	103.6	103.1	103.7	103.5
Duke	98.4	97.5	97.8	97.9
Georgia Tech	91.1	89.9	91.3	90.8
ACC Averages	104.8	104.2	105.0	104.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	122.3	121.6	121.7	121.9
Iowa St.	114.2	114.7	114.2	114.3
Baylor	113.7	113.8	113.1	113.5
Oklahoma St.	110.6	111.3	110.2	110.7
Kansas St.	110.8	110.5	110.5	110.6
Texas	109.9	110.1	109.6	109.9
T C U	108.8	111.0	109.2	109.7
Texas Tech	105.8	106.2	105.1	105.7
West Virginia	101.6	101.4	101.0	101.3
Kansas	96.7	97.7	96.8	97.1
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	139.8	138.9	140.7	139.8
Michigan	127.2	126.0	127.7	127.0
Penn St.	123.5	122.6	123.5	123.2
Indiana	110.1	109.1	109.9	109.7
Michigan St.	108.9	108.1	108.2	108.4
Maryland	93.3	92.3	91.5	92.4
Rutgers	84.5	84.0	83.0	83.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	120.7	120.4	120.6	120.6
Minnesota	119.0	118.7	118.5	118.7
Iowa	118.6	117.1	118.4	118.0
Nebraska	106.1	106.3	105.2	105.9
Illinois	104.6	105.4	104.5	104.8
Purdue	103.9	103.7	103.3	103.6
Northwestern	101.5	100.5	99.9	100.7
Big Ten Averages	111.6	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	97.9	97.9	98.9	98.2
Western Kentucky	95.4	96.2	96.9	96.2
Marshall	92.2	92.0	93.0	92.4
Florida Int’l.	88.9	88.7	88.8	88.8
Middle Tennessee	88.8	88.2	88.8	88.6
Charlotte	87.7	88.0	88.2	88.0
Old Dominion	73.7	73.8	73.6	73.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	94.1	94.3	94.1	94.1
Southern Miss.	94.3	93.2	94.6	94.0
U A B	88.8	90.8	89.5	89.7
North Texas	86.6	86.2	86.6	86.5
Rice	82.3	83.3	82.0	82.5
Texas-San Antonio	75.9	77.7	76.1	76.5
U T E P	68.6	72.2	69.0	69.9
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	120.3	119.3	120.4	120.0
BYU	102.6	102.8	102.3	102.6
Army	95.5	95.7	95.0	95.4
Liberty	89.3	90.4	89.4	89.7
New Mexico St.	75.8	77.7	75.6	76.3
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9
Indep. Averages	90.0	90.7	89.7	90.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	95.9	95.1	96.4	95.8
Buffalo	93.7	94.3	95.1	94.3
Miami (Ohio)	91.2	90.2	91.5	91.0
Kent St.	88.0	88.0	88.6	88.2
Bowling Green	69.2	68.6	68.9	68.9
Akron	66.8	66.5	65.7	66.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	98.5	97.6	98.2	98.1
Ball St.	90.1	89.7	90.1	90.0
Central Michigan	89.2	89.9	90.2	89.7
Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.1	89.4	89.1
Toledo	86.7	86.7	87.0	86.8
Northern Illinois	86.6	85.9	86.7	86.4
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.3	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	108.5	108.7	108.8	108.7
Air Force	104.1	105.8	105.0	105.0
Wyoming	98.8	100.6	99.2	99.5
Utah St.	96.9	96.4	97.5	96.9
Colorado St.	87.4	90.7	87.9	88.7
New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	97.1	98.7	96.9	97.6
Hawaii	95.6	97.0	94.8	95.8
Fresno St.	92.6	93.6	92.6	92.9
Nevada	90.4	92.0	89.9	90.8
San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.4	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	119.7	119.6	120.7	120.0
Washington	112.0	111.6	112.7	112.1
Washington St.	111.4	110.7	111.6	111.2
California	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
Oregon St.	101.0	101.9	101.0	101.3
Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.1	101.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.5	108.0
U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
Arizona	96.9	96.6	96.4	96.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	107.2	107.7	107.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	127.2	125.4	127.3	126.6
Florida	125.9	123.3	125.7	124.9
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
Kentucky	110.0	108.7	108.9	109.2
Missouri	110.2	107.7	109.0	109.0
South Carolina	109.5	107.7	108.5	108.6
Vanderbilt	92.8	91.2	91.2	91.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
L S U	131.3	129.1	131.3	130.6
Alabama	129.1	126.0	129.6	128.2
Auburn	122.6	120.8	122.2	121.9
Texas A&M	118.3	116.9	117.7	117.7
Mississippi St.	109.9	106.6	113.7	110.1
Ole Miss	107.7	106.9	107.7	107.4
Arkansas	87.7	87.6	86.8	87.4
SEC Averages	113.8	112.0	113.5	113.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	107.5	106.8	106.8	107.0
Georgia Southern	96.7	96.6	96.2	96.5
Georgia St.	90.9	91.9	90.2	91.0
Troy	91.2	91.6	89.8	90.9
Coastal Carolina	87.3	88.4	87.0	87.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	103.8	104.2	103.5	103.8
Arkansas St.	91.7	92.1	91.6	91.8
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.3	85.9
Texas St.	78.8	79.3	78.2	78.8
South Alabama	75.3	77.8	75.1	76.1
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.4	90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Pac-12	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.1
10	Conf. USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Appalachian St.
5	Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

————————————–

The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[UAB]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Miami (O)
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Marshall]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	[Nevada]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Utah
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Western Ky.	TCU
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Central Michigan]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Missouri
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Liberty]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	Air Force
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Florida Int’l.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Utah St.
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Georgia	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Georgia	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	Ohio	-19.2	-18.6	-19.6
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	7.8	7.0	7.7
Wednesday	November 20
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Toledo	7.2	7.6	7.9
Miami (O)	Akron	28.6	27.9	30.7
Thursday	November 21
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Tech	North Carolina St.	-1.4	-2.0	-0.8
Friday	November 22
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wyoming	Colorado St.	13.6	12.2	13.5
Saturday	November 23
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Texas St.	32.6	31.4	33.0
Arizona	Utah	-26.6	-25.9	-27.9
Arizona St.	Oregon	-12.5	-13.4	-13.7
Arkansas St.	Georgia Southern	-3.2	-3.0	-3.3
Baylor	Texas	4.9	4.7	4.3
Charlotte	Marshall	-5.1	-4.4	-5.6
Cincinnati	Temple	10.3	10.4	9.5
Colorado	Washington	-14.7	-14.5	-15.9
Connecticut	East Carolina	-10.7	-9.3	-12.1
Florida Int’l.	Miami (Fla.)	-21.9	-21.8	-23.4
Fresno St.	Nevada	9.6	8.9	10.1
Georgia	Texas A&M	12.9	12.8	14.3
Georgia St.	South Alabama	18.7	17.2	18.5
Hawaii	San Diego St.	1.8	1.5	1.0
Indiana	Michigan	-11.4	-10.9	-11.7
Iowa	Illinois	17.8	15.2	18.0
Iowa St.	Kansas	22.7	22.2	23.3
Kent St.	Ball St.	0.0	0.4	0.5
Louisiana	Troy	9.2	8.9	9.8
Louisville	Syracuse	0.9	1.5	1.6
LSU	Arkansas	47.1	45.0	48.0
Maryland	Nebraska	-2.8	-4.4	-3.4
Massachusetts	BYU	-43.3	-42.0	-44.6
Middle Tennessee	Old Dominion	17.3	16.1	16.8
Missouri	Tennessee	3.4	1.0	3.2
Navy	SMU	-4.8	-2.2	-4.6
New Mexico	Air Force	-22.0	-21.4	-24.2
New Mexico St.	UTEP	8.7	6.8	8.1
Northwestern	Minnesota	-14.6	-15.4	-16.0
Notre Dame	Boston College	19.4	18.6	19.2
Ohio St.	Penn St.	19.8	20.0	21.3
Oklahoma	TCU	18.4	15.3	17.6
Rice	North Texas	-4.9	-3.6	-5.7
Rutgers	Michigan St.	-21.5	-20.8	-21.9
South Florida	Memphis	-13.6	-12.8	-14.3
Southern Miss.	Western Kentucky	6.8	4.8	5.6
Stanford	California	0.0	-0.6	-1.0
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	-1.6	-1.1	-2.3
Tulane	Central Florida	-9.5	-8.1	-9.6
Tulsa	Houston	0.6	0.7	0.1
UAB	Louisiana Tech	-4.4	-2.6	-4.1
UL-Monroe	Coastal Carolina	1.4	0.5	0.9
UNLV	San Jose St.	-2.5	-3.0	-3.3
USC	UCLA	12.2	12.9	13.2
Utah St.	Boise St.	-3.6	-4.3	-2.9
UTSA	Florida Atlantic	-19.8	-18.1	-21.3
Virginia	Liberty	18.6	17.4	18.3
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	5.0	5.3	5.6
Wake Forest	Duke	6.2	6.2	6.5
Washington St.	Oregon St.	15.1	13.3	15.7
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	-5.8	-6.7	-6.0
Wisconsin	Purdue	19.5	19.4	20.0

 

FBS vs.	FCS	PiRate
Alabama	Western Carolina	56
Auburn	Samford	49
Kentucky	UT-Martin	29
Mississippi St.	Abilene Christian	35
North Carolina	Mercer	38
Vanderbilt	East Tennessee	21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	140.0	139.2	141.3	140.2
2	Clemson	137.6	135.7	138.9	137.4
3	L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8
4	Alabama	128.9	125.7	129.4	128.0
5	Georgia	127.9	126.2	128.3	127.5
6	Utah	126.6	125.6	127.5	126.6
7	Michigan	125.6	124.3	126.0	125.3
8	Florida	125.6	123.0	125.4	124.6
9	Penn St.	123.2	122.2	123.0	122.8
10	Oklahoma	123.1	122.3	122.6	122.7
11	Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0
12	Auburn	122.5	120.7	122.1	121.8
13	Wisconsin	120.5	120.2	120.5	120.4
14	Minnesota	118.8	118.5	118.5	118.6
15	Iowa	118.9	117.3	119.0	118.4
16	Notre Dame	118.8	117.6	118.8	118.4
17	Texas A&M	117.9	116.4	117.0	117.1
18	Iowa St.	115.4	116.0	115.8	115.7
19	Washington	114.1	113.8	115.1	114.3
20	Baylor	113.0	113.0	112.3	112.8
21	Washington St.	112.1	111.3	112.5	112.0
22	Central Florida	111.8	111.1	112.3	111.7
23	U S C	110.6	111.1	111.3	111.0
24	Indiana	111.3	110.4	111.3	111.0
25	Texas	110.5	110.8	110.5	110.6
26	Oklahoma St.	110.4	111.1	110.1	110.5
27	Kansas St.	110.6	110.4	110.4	110.5
28	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.5	113.7	110.0
29	Tennessee	110.2	110.0	109.5	109.9
30	Missouri	110.6	108.0	109.7	109.4
31	Kentucky	109.8	108.5	108.7	109.0
32	Miami (Fla.)	108.6	108.3	109.8	108.9
33	Virginia Tech	108.4	108.4	109.3	108.7
34	T C U	107.7	110.0	108.0	108.6
35	South Carolina	109.2	107.4	108.2	108.3
36	Michigan St.	108.7	107.7	107.9	108.1
37	Memphis	107.5	107.6	108.6	107.9
38	Appalachian St.	107.9	107.2	107.5	107.5
39	Virginia	107.4	107.3	107.4	107.4
40	Ole Miss	107.3	106.6	107.4	107.1
41	Cincinnati	106.7	106.2	106.9	106.6
42	Boise St.	106.2	106.4	106.3	106.3
43	North Carolina	105.8	105.6	106.5	106.0
44	Pittsburgh	105.9	105.5	106.2	105.9
45	Texas Tech	105.9	106.3	105.2	105.8
46	Arizona St.	105.9	105.2	106.1	105.8
47	SMU	105.5	105.2	106.2	105.6
48	Air Force	104.1	105.7	105.0	104.9
49	Florida St.	104.5	104.5	104.7	104.6
50	Illinois	104.1	105.0	103.9	104.4
51	Purdue	104.0	103.8	103.4	103.7
52	Nebraska	103.3	103.7	102.4	103.1
53	BYU	102.8	103.0	102.8	102.9
54	California	102.7	102.4	103.2	102.8
55	Wake Forest	102.9	102.1	103.0	102.7
56	Boston College	102.4	102.0	102.6	102.3
57	Syracuse	102.1	101.3	101.4	101.6
58	West Virginia	101.7	101.4	101.1	101.4
59	Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.2	101.3
60	Northwestern	101.6	100.6	100.0	100.7
61	Louisiana	100.5	100.8	100.1	100.5
62	Oregon St.	100.0	101.0	99.8	100.3
63	Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.2	100.2
64	Louisville	100.0	99.8	100.0	99.9
65	Utah St.	99.6	99.1	100.5	99.7
66	Wyoming	98.9	100.7	99.3	99.6
67	U C L A	99.4	99.2	99.1	99.3
68	Temple	98.8	98.4	99.9	99.0
69	Navy	97.7	100.0	98.5	98.8
70	Florida Atlantic	98.0	98.0	99.4	98.5
71	Duke	98.7	97.9	98.4	98.3
72	Western Michigan	98.3	97.3	98.0	97.9
73	San Diego St.	97.2	98.8	97.1	97.7
74	Georgia Southern	97.3	97.3	97.0	97.2
75	Houston	96.0	96.8	97.8	96.8
76	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8
77	Maryland	97.5	96.3	95.9	96.6
78	Southern Miss.	96.7	95.5	97.1	96.4
79	Colorado	96.5	96.3	96.3	96.3
80	Kansas	95.7	96.7	95.6	96.0
81	Hawaii	95.5	96.9	94.6	95.7
82	Army	95.3	95.5	94.8	95.2
83	Louisiana Tech	94.9	95.1	95.2	95.0
84	Fresno St.	94.6	95.6	94.7	95.0
85	North Carolina St.	94.7	94.0	94.3	94.3
86	Tulsa	93.6	94.5	94.9	94.3
87	Troy	94.4	94.9	93.3	94.2
88	Marshall	93.5	93.3	94.5	93.8
89	Western Kentucky	92.9	93.8	94.5	93.7
90	Buffalo	92.7	93.2	93.9	93.2
91	Ohio	93.4	92.4	93.7	93.2
92	Miami (Ohio)	92.5	91.5	93.2	92.4
93	South Florida	91.4	92.3	91.8	91.8
94	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
95	Georgia St.	91.2	92.2	90.7	91.4
96	Arkansas St.	91.1	91.4	90.8	91.1
97	Liberty	90.3	91.4	90.6	90.7
98	Georgia Tech	90.8	89.5	91.0	90.4
99	Ball St.	90.3	89.9	90.4	90.2
100	Northern Illinois	90.1	89.5	90.4	90.0
101	Central Michigan	89.0	89.6	90.0	89.5
102	San Jose St.	88.3	90.2	88.5	89.0
103	U A B	87.9	89.9	88.5	88.8
104	Colorado St.	87.3	90.6	87.8	88.6
105	Nevada	88.1	89.7	87.6	88.5
106	Middle Tennessee	88.6	87.8	88.4	88.3
107	Toledo	88.0	88.1	88.5	88.2
108	Kent St.	87.8	87.8	88.4	88.0
109	North Texas	88.0	87.6	88.3	88.0
110	Coastal Carolina	87.4	88.6	87.2	87.7
111	Arkansas	87.4	87.3	86.6	87.1
112	Charlotte	86.0	86.4	86.4	86.3
113	Louisiana-Monroe	85.7	86.1	85.1	85.6
114	Eastern Michigan	85.3	85.5	85.7	85.5
115	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.4	85.4	85.5
116	East Carolina	83.9	85.3	84.3	84.5
117	Rutgers	84.7	84.4	83.5	84.2
118	U N L V	82.8	84.3	82.2	83.1
119	Rice	81.1	82.0	80.6	81.3
120	New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
121	Texas St.	78.3	78.8	77.5	78.2
122	New Mexico St.	75.8	77.6	75.6	76.3
123	Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.5	75.6	76.2
124	South Alabama	75.0	77.5	74.7	75.8
125	Old Dominion	73.9	74.2	74.0	74.0
126	Bowling Green	72.2	71.8	72.1	72.1
127	Connecticut	71.2	74.0	70.2	71.8
128	U T E P	68.6	72.3	69.0	69.9
129	Akron	65.9	65.6	64.5	65.3
130	Massachusetts	56.5	58.0	55.2	56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.8	111.1	112.3	111.7	4-2	7-3
Cincinnati	106.7	106.2	106.9	106.6	6-0	9-1
Temple	98.8	98.4	99.9	99.0	4-2	7-3
South Florida	91.4	92.3	91.8	91.8	2-4	4-6
East Carolina	83.9	85.3	84.3	84.5	0-6	3-7
Connecticut	71.2	74.0	70.2	71.8	0-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	107.5	107.6	108.6	107.9	5-1	9-1
SMU	105.5	105.2	106.2	105.6	5-1	9-1
Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.2	100.2	3-3	6-4
Navy	97.7	100.0	98.5	98.8	5-1	7-2
Houston	96.0	96.8	97.8	96.8	1-5	3-7
Tulsa	93.6	94.5	94.9	94.3	1-5	3-7
AAC Averages	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	137.6	135.7	138.9	137.4	8-0	11-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.5	104.7	104.6	4-4	6-5
Wake Forest	102.9	102.1	103.0	102.7	3-3	7-3
Boston College	102.4	102.0	102.6	102.3	3-4	5-5
Syracuse	102.1	101.3	101.4	101.6	1-5	4-6
Louisville	100.0	99.8	100.0	99.9	4-3	6-4
North Carolina St.	94.7	94.0	94.3	94.3	1-5	4-6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	108.6	108.3	109.8	108.9	4-3	6-4
Virginia Tech	108.4	108.4	109.3	108.7	5-2	7-3
Virginia	107.4	107.3	107.4	107.4	5-2	7-3
North Carolina	105.8	105.6	106.5	106.0	3-4	4-6
Pittsburgh	105.9	105.5	106.2	105.9	4-2	7-3
Duke	98.7	97.9	98.4	98.3	2-5	4-6
Georgia Tech	90.8	89.5	91.0	90.4	1-6	2-8
ACC Averages	105.0	104.4	105.3	104.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.1	122.3	122.6	122.7	6-1	9-1
Iowa St.	115.4	116.0	115.8	115.7	4-3	6-4
Baylor	113.0	113.0	112.3	112.8	6-1	9-1
Texas	110.5	110.8	110.5	110.6	4-3	6-4
Oklahoma St.	110.4	111.1	110.1	110.5	4-3	7-3
Kansas St.	110.6	110.4	110.4	110.5	3-4	6-4
T C U	107.7	110.0	108.0	108.6	3-4	5-5
Texas Tech	105.9	106.3	105.2	105.8	2-5	4-6
West Virginia	101.7	101.4	101.1	101.4	2-5	4-6
Kansas	95.7	96.7	95.6	96.0	1-6	3-7
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	140.0	139.2	141.3	140.2	7-0	10-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	126.0	125.3	5-2	8-2
Penn St.	123.2	122.2	123.0	122.8	6-1	9-1
Indiana	111.3	110.4	111.3	111.0	4-3	7-3
Michigan St.	108.7	107.7	107.9	108.1	2-5	4-6
Maryland	97.5	96.3	95.9	96.6	1-6	3-7
Rutgers	84.7	84.4	83.5	84.2	0-7	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.5	120.2	120.5	120.4	5-2	8-2
Minnesota	118.8	118.5	118.5	118.6	6-1	9-1
Iowa	118.9	117.3	119.0	118.4	4-3	7-3
Illinois	104.1	105.0	103.9	104.4	4-3	6-4
Purdue	104.0	103.8	103.4	103.7	3-4	4-6
Nebraska	103.3	103.7	102.4	103.1	2-5	4-6
Northwestern	101.6	100.6	100.0	100.7	0-7	2-8
Big Ten Averages	111.6	111.0	111.2	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.0	98.0	99.4	98.5	5-1	7-3
Marshall	93.5	93.3	94.5	93.8	5-1	7-3
Western Kentucky	92.9	93.8	94.5	93.7	4-2	6-4
Middle Tennessee	88.6	87.8	88.4	88.3	2-4	3-7
Charlotte	86.0	86.4	86.4	86.3	3-3	5-5
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.4	85.4	85.5	3-4	5-5
Old Dominion	73.9	74.2	74.0	74.0	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	96.7	95.5	97.1	96.4	5-1	7-3
Louisiana Tech	94.9	95.1	95.2	95.0	5-1	8-2
U A B	87.9	89.9	88.5	88.8	4-2	7-3
North Texas	88.0	87.6	88.3	88.0	3-3	4-6
Rice	81.1	82.0	80.6	81.3	1-5	1-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.5	75.6	76.2	3-3	4-6
U T E P	68.6	72.3	69.0	69.9	0-7	1-9
CUSA Averages	86.5	87.1	86.9	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	118.8	117.6	118.8	118.4	x	8-2
BYU	102.8	103.0	102.8	102.9	x	6-4
Army	95.3	95.5	94.8	95.2	x	5-6
Liberty	90.3	91.4	90.6	90.7	x	6-4
New Mexico St.	75.8	77.6	75.6	76.3	x	1-9
Massachusetts	56.5	58.0	55.2	56.6	x	1-10
Indep. Averages	89.9	90.5	89.6	90.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	92.7	93.2	93.9	93.2	3-3	5-5
Ohio	93.4	92.4	93.7	93.2	3-3	4-6
Miami (Ohio)	92.5	91.5	93.2	92.4	5-1	6-4
Kent St.	87.8	87.8	88.4	88.0	3-3	4-6
Bowling Green	72.2	71.8	72.1	72.1	2-4	3-7
Akron	65.9	65.6	64.5	65.3	0-6	0-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.3	97.3	98.0	97.9	5-2	7-4
Ball St.	90.3	89.9	90.4	90.2	3-3	4-6
Northern Illinois	90.1	89.5	90.4	90.0	3-3	4-6
Central Michigan	89.0	89.6	90.0	89.5	5-2	7-4
Toledo	88.0	88.1	88.5	88.2	3-3	6-4
Eastern Michigan	85.3	85.5	85.7	85.5	2-4	5-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.9	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.2	106.4	106.3	106.3	6-0	9-1
Air Force	104.1	105.7	105.0	104.9	5-1	8-2
Utah St.	99.6	99.1	100.5	99.7	5-1	6-4
Wyoming	98.9	100.7	99.3	99.6	3-3	6-4
Colorado St.	87.3	90.6	87.8	88.6	3-3	4-6
New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9	0-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.2	98.8	97.1	97.7	5-2	8-2
Hawaii	95.5	96.9	94.6	95.7	4-3	7-4
Fresno St.	94.6	95.6	94.7	95.0	2-4	4-6
San Jose St.	88.3	90.2	88.5	89.0	1-5	4-6
Nevada	88.1	89.7	87.6	88.5	3-3	6-4
U N L V	82.8	84.3	82.2	83.1	1-6	2-8
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.5	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0	7-0	9-1
Washington	114.1	113.8	115.1	114.3	3-4	6-4
Washington St.	112.1	111.3	112.5	112.0	2-5	5-5
California	102.7	102.4	103.2	102.8	2-5	5-5
Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.2	101.3	3-5	4-6
Oregon St.	100.0	101.0	99.8	100.3	4-3	5-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	126.6	125.6	127.5	126.6	6-1	9-1
U S C	110.6	111.1	111.3	111.0	6-2	7-4
Arizona St.	105.9	105.2	106.1	105.8	2-5	5-5
U C L A	99.4	99.2	99.1	99.3	4-3	4-6
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8	2-5	4-6
Colorado	96.5	96.3	96.3	96.3	2-5	4-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.1	107.6	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.9	126.2	128.3	127.5	6-1	9-1
Florida	125.6	123.0	125.4	124.6	7-2	9-2
Tennessee	110.2	110.0	109.5	109.9	3-3	5-5
Missouri	110.6	108.0	109.7	109.4	2-4	5-5
Kentucky	109.8	108.5	108.7	109.0	3-5	5-5
South Carolina	109.2	107.4	108.2	108.3	3-5	4-7
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8	6-0	10-0
Alabama	128.9	125.7	129.4	128.0	6-1	9-1
Auburn	122.5	120.7	122.1	121.8	4-3	7-3
Texas A&M	117.9	116.4	117.0	117.1	4-2	7-3
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.5	113.7	110.0	2-5	4-6
Ole Miss	107.3	106.6	107.4	107.1	2-5	4-7
Arkansas	87.4	87.3	86.6	87.1	0-6	2-8
SEC Averages	113.7	111.9	113.5	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	107.9	107.2	107.5	107.5	5-1	9-1
Georgia Southern	97.3	97.3	97.0	97.2	4-2	6-4
Troy	94.4	94.9	93.3	94.2	3-3	5-5
Georgia St.	91.2	92.2	90.7	91.4	3-3	6-4
Coastal Carolina	87.4	88.6	87.2	87.7	1-5	4-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.5	100.8	100.1	100.5	5-1	8-2
Arkansas St.	91.1	91.4	90.8	91.1	4-2	6-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.7	86.1	85.1	85.6	3-3	4-6
Texas St.	78.3	78.8	77.5	78.2	2-4	3-7
South Alabama	75.0	77.5	74.7	75.8	0-6	1-9
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.4	90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.4
4	Pac-12	107.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.9
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.0
10	Mid-American	87.1
11	Conference USA	86.8
Our Guess at Top 6
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Alabama
Top 5 Group of 5
1	Cincinnati
2	Memphis
3	Boise St.
4	SMU
5	Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgia could be headed to the playoffs if they both win out, and then Georgia pulls off a mild upset in the SEC Championship Game. There is also a small chance that Alabama could sneak back into the picture if LSU beats Georgia, and then Alabama thrashes Auburn on The Plains to show the Committee that losing Tua Tagovailoa didn’t weaken the Tide enough to knock them out of the Playoff picture. Either way, there is a decent chance that the SEC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially if Oklahoma loses another game and Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12.

Alabama and Florida are almost assured of receiving New Year’s Six Bowl Bids, and if Alabama sneaks into the Playoffs, then Georgia will replace the Tide in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Citrus bowl would then take Auburn. Texas A&M is almost a cinch to go to the Texas Bowl this year, where some backroom deals are being made to place Texas in there as a dream match-up. Tennessee is one win away from a possible destination in Jacksonville in the Gator Bowl, while Kentucky needs only to beat UT-Martin this week to earn a trip to a possible Outback Bowl game against a possible neighboring rival.

At this point, there are no more happy guarantees for the great SEC. Mississippi State is going to beat Abilene Christian this weekend to get to 5-6, but then they must turn around and face Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day, while the Rebels get this week off to prepare an extra few days. The way the two teams are playing presently, Ole Miss looks like the superior team, so we will count out Mississippi State at 5-7.

Missouri is 5-5, and the Tigers still have to play Arkansas, so even though they have lost four consecutive games, Mizzou is going to be 6-6. The Tigers are still in limbo with the NCAA. While Missouri is on probation and has a bowl ban, their legal team has filed an appeal, and the NCAA has yet to rule on it and might not rule on it until after bowl bids have been issued. It looks like the NCAA is going to turn the other cheek to help the SEC out, and then rule after the bowl season on the matter, or they could rule that Missouri has done enough in-house corrections to get a reprieve. Then, again, there is a lot of dissension going on in Columbia, and the school may choose to close up shop after the Arkansas game and self-impose on taking a meaningless bowl game at 6-6.

The SEC has agreements with 11 bowls not including the Playoffs. If two SEC teams make the Playoffs, then the SEC will have the need for 13 bowl eligible teams and will most likely have eight or nine bowl eligible teams. If Maalox wants to create a nice promotion, they will send free cases of their product to the members of the Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls, and possibly the Belk Bowl.

With the possibility of some really weak bowl match-ups, you can expect this season to produce at least one if not two or three “backroom” deals to place better at-large teams in the bowls where the opponent is a Power Five team. A 9-3 Power Conference team playing a 6-6 Group of 5 team just cannot be allowed.

What you see in our Bowl Projections are the raw projections strictly following the bowl rules. As information leaks about potential back-room deals, we will try to stay on top of all the news and rumors.

Here is a conference by conference look at the bowl eligible teams and those that can still become bowl eligible.

American Athletic

Bowl Eligible: 7
Memphis, SMU, Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Temple

Still Alive: South Florida

If either Memphis or Cincinnati win out to capture the AAC Title, that team will head to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 best champion. SMU could also earn this bid if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, while the Mustangs win out, including beating Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Navy has a remote chance at getting to the Cotton Bowl. Memphis and SMU would both have to lose in the regular season, while Navy wins out and beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game, and Boise State would have to lose in the Mountain West.
South Florida merely has to beat Memphis and Central Florida to earn a bowl, so it isn’t going to be a Bulls Market this year.

Atlantic Coast (+ Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh

Still Alive: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, N. Carolina St., and Syracuse

Clemson has the best chance of any team of going 13-0 before the Playoffs, but we are starting to see just a little extra possibility that if Virginia Tech takes care of Pittsburgh and Virginia, the Hokies will be a little more formidable than the experts are given them credit for being. Va. Tech was dismissed for dead earlier in the season, but Justin Fuente has done an incredible job re-shaping the Hokie team to where they look like the second best team in the league. If Tech beats Pitt and Virginia, they will most likely be the Orange Bowl representative even if Clemson pounds them in the ACC Championship Game.

At this point, our forecast calls for North Carolina to top Mercer and NC State to finish 6-6 and grab the last bowl spot that goes to the ACC. We don’t see a path to 6-6 for the other teams still alive.

Big 12

Bowl Eligible: 6
Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St.

Still Alive: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The PiRate Ratings do not forecast Oklahoma to win out and sneak into the Playoffs, but don’t assume we are picking Baylor to get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have to go to Stillwater to face the much-improved Cowboys, and we believe Oklahoma St. has a very decent chance to pull off the upset and ruin the league’s chances to get into the Playoffs.

Of the teams still fighting for bowl eligibility, we believe TCU can beat West Virginia in Fort Worth to get their sixth win, but Tech and the Mountaineers might both be staring at 5-7 seasons.

Big Ten

Bowl Eligible: 7

Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Still Alive: Michigan St., Nebraska, Purdue

This is the most interesting race for the Playoffs and Bowl seeding. First, Ohio State must now close with wins against Penn State, Michigan, and the Western Division Champion in the Conference Championship Game to guarantee a Playoff spot. Only the Penn State game is in the Giant Horseshoe. We remember 50 years ago quite well, when an 8-0 Ohio State team that many were calling the greatest college football team since Army in 1945, went to the Big House to play a two-loss Michigan team that remembered being thrashed in Columbus the previous year. That Ohio State team was a double-digit favorite and got thrashed by a Michigan defense that played well over its potential that day.

Assuming Ohio State handles Penn State this weekend, could history repeat itself 50 years later? Of course, James Franklin has a history of getting underdog teams psyched up to win big road games, so the Nittany Lions could still be in the Big Ten Championship picture.

On the other side, Minnesota still controls its own destiny, but then so does Wisconsin. The Gophers did everything but beat Iowa in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes frequently win games at home with final stats that on paper look like they lost by a couple of touchdowns. The Gophers get Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

There is even a bizarre scenario where Illinois could win the West Division flag. This requires Minnesota to lose to Northwestern and Wisconsin; for Wisconsin to lose to Purdue, while the Illini beat Iowa and Northwestern. The chances for this to happen are about the same as Lovie Smith taking over Alabama for Nick Saban in 2020.

Michigan State is now 4-6, and the Spartans look like an offense from the days of one platoon football. Their defense has fallen apart with all the extra snaps it has had to face, but now Sparty catches a break. MSU closes with Rutgers and Maryland, so the Green and White have about a 95% chance of improving to 6-6 and getting a bottom tier bowl bid.

Nebraska is 4-6 with games remaining against Maryland and Iowa. We have a suspicion that Scott Frost will have his team prepared to face the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium and will pull off the upset to close at 6-6 and get the final bowl bid in this league.

Purdue must beat both Wisconsin and Indiana to get to 6-6, and by the time they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, their long snapper might be the backup quarterback. Better luck next year Boilermakers.

Because the Big Ten has the most strict bowl tie-ins, certain teams cannot go to certain bowls if they have been to them in the last five years. What this means is:

The Citrus Bowl will not invite Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State

The Outback Bowl will not invite Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Holiday Bowl will not invite Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Gator Bowl will not invite Iowa or Penn St.

The Pinstripe Bowl will not invite Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin

The Redbox Bowl will not invite Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, or Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl will not invite Minnesota

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss., UAB

Still Alive: Charlotte, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UTSA

Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, so it the Thundering Herd beat Charlotte and FIU, they will be East Division champs. In the West, Louisiana Tech controls their destiny, but if the Bulldogs lose to UAB, then Southern Miss can win out and take the division flag.

Of the teams still alive, Charlotte and North Texas have the best chances to get to six wins, while FIU and UTSA have close to zero chances to do so. Because this league could have eight bowl eligible teams, and they have just five primary tie-ins, two or three teams will get at-large invitations, and deals could be made to send better teams to at-large spots.

Independents (not Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 2
BYU, Liberty

Still Alive: Army

BYU has earned its guaranteed Hawaii Bowl bid with its sixth win. Liberty doesn’t have a primary bowl bid, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl. Since the AAC is likely to send its champion to the Cotton Bowl, the Cure Bowl bid could be there for Liberty.

Army must beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Navy to get to 7-6. We don’t see it happening this year.

Mid-American

Bowl Eligible: 4
Miami (O), Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive: Buffalo, Kent St., Ohio, Ball St., Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois

Not having a dominating team and having to play games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays have led to MACtion being one big season-long toss-up with a lot of parity. Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division title, as the Red Hawks hold all potential tiebreakers over Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St. The West is a different story as four teams are still technically alive. Western Michigan will win the division if the Broncos beat both Ohio and Northern Illinois, but both games are on the road, and we don’t believe WMU will go 2-0.

Central Michigan must win at Ball State and then beat Toledo at home and then hope that WMU loses to Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois and Toledo are still mathematically alive in the race but need multiple things to happen to sneak into the top spot in the West.

There are still six teams trying to become eligible, and by the time the regular season concludes, we believe the MAC will have eight bowl eligible teams with five teams at 6-6. Not all these 6-6 teams will have bowl spots available to them, but the MAC should receive at least one extra bowl invitation and possibly two.

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Utah St., Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St.

Still Alive: Colorado St., Fresno St., San Jose St.

Boise State must win out and hope for the AAC to implode and produce a two-loss league champion in order for the Broncos to ascend to the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. could be 12-1 and relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl. If that happens, and the Pac-12 has a 6-6 team available, there is a chance that a deal could be made to send the Pac-12 team east and bring a 10 or 11-win team like Appalachian State or SMU to Vegas. Or, Boise State could be sent east to play in a Liberty, Music City, or Belk Bowl where no SEC team is available.

Air Force is looking at 10-2 and another potential bad bowl match-up, and because the Falcons can basically bring the entire Academy, they can fill up a bowl stadium even if it’s 1,500 miles from Colorado Springs.

In the West, the winner of the San Diego State-Hawaii game this week gets to face Boise State with a chance for the big upset. Technically, Air Force and Utah State are still alive in the Mountain, but Boise State has to lose twice for that to happen.
Of the three teams still with a chance to become bowl eligible, Colorado State has to beat both Wyoming and Boise State, so the Rams are staying home for the holidays. Fresno State and San Jose State are looking at a season finale where they will face off in San Jose with probably 5-6 records. The Spartans look like the stronger team in November, so we’ll give SJSU the final bid.

Pac-12

Bowl Eligible: 4
Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah

Still Alive: California, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St. Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, UCLA

The entire conference is still alive for a bowl! That’s a blessing and a curse. There is so much parity that when USC beat Utah, they severely damaged this league’s chance to sneak a team into the Playoffs. Even if either Utah or Oregon wins out to finish 12-1, they are almost assuredly relegated to Pasadena and not to the Playoffs. Oregon dominated Auburn until the final few minutes to start the season, and that game is just as important as the Utah loss to the Trojans.

Of the eight remaining teams not yet bowl eligible, we believe that three will get to six wins. Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA don’t look like they have enough talent to win the games they must win to get to 6-6. Any 6-6 team in this league will be in a bowl.

Southeastern

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M

Still Alive: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi St.

See above for the explanation for the SEC. We believe nine teams will be bowl eligible, or eight if Missouri either self-imposes a bowl ban, or the NCAA denies their appeal before December.

Sunbelt

Bowl Eligible: 5
Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St.. Arkansas St., Louisiana

Still Alive: Coastal Carolina, Troy, UL-Monroe

It will take a monumental chain of events for Appy State and Lousiana not to meet in the SBC Championship Game. Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Troy all still hold miniscule division title hopes in the East, while Arkansas St. and UL-Monroe are still mathematically alive in the West.

This is the only conference where we don’t see an additional team still alive becoming bowl eligible.

This Week’s Projections

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Nevada]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Cincinnati	Central Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ball St.	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	California
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Navy	Western Kentucky
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Central Florida
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Charlotte]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Wake Forest	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Washington St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	[Utah St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Eastern Michigan]	Virginia
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Louisville	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	[North Texas]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	Hawaii
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Alabama
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[UAB]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Air Force
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Georgia	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Georgia	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections