The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 17, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:58 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

Ohio

-19.2

-18.6

-19.6

Northern Illinois

Eastern Michigan

7.8

7.0

7.7

 

 

Wednesday

November 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo

Toledo

7.2

7.6

7.9

Miami (O)

Akron

28.6

27.9

30.7

 

 

Thursday

November 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

North Carolina St.

-1.4

-2.0

-0.8

 

 

Friday

November 22

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wyoming

Colorado St.

13.6

12.2

13.5

 

 

Saturday

November 23

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Texas St.

32.6

31.4

33.0

Arizona

Utah

-26.6

-25.9

-27.9

Arizona St.

Oregon

-12.5

-13.4

-13.7

Arkansas St.

Georgia Southern

-3.2

-3.0

-3.3

Baylor

Texas

4.9

4.7

4.3

Charlotte

Marshall

-5.1

-4.4

-5.6

Cincinnati

Temple

10.3

10.4

9.5

Colorado

Washington

-14.7

-14.5

-15.9

Connecticut

East Carolina

-10.7

-9.3

-12.1

Florida Int’l.

Miami (Fla.)

-21.9

-21.8

-23.4

Fresno St.

Nevada

9.6

8.9

10.1

Georgia

Texas A&M

12.9

12.8

14.3

Georgia St.

South Alabama

18.7

17.2

18.5

Hawaii

San Diego St.

1.8

1.5

1.0

Indiana

Michigan

-11.4

-10.9

-11.7

Iowa

Illinois

17.8

15.2

18.0

Iowa St.

Kansas

22.7

22.2

23.3

Kent St.

Ball St.

0.0

0.4

0.5

Louisiana

Troy

9.2

8.9

9.8

Louisville

Syracuse

0.9

1.5

1.6

LSU

Arkansas

47.1

45.0

48.0

Maryland

Nebraska

-2.8

-4.4

-3.4

Massachusetts

BYU

-43.3

-42.0

-44.6

Middle Tennessee

Old Dominion

17.3

16.1

16.8

Missouri

Tennessee

3.4

1.0

3.2

Navy

SMU

-4.8

-2.2

-4.6

New Mexico

Air Force

-22.0

-21.4

-24.2

New Mexico St.

UTEP

8.7

6.8

8.1

Northwestern

Minnesota

-14.6

-15.4

-16.0

Notre Dame

Boston College

19.4

18.6

19.2

Ohio St.

Penn St.

19.8

20.0

21.3

Oklahoma

TCU

18.4

15.3

17.6

Rice

North Texas

-4.9

-3.6

-5.7

Rutgers

Michigan St.

-21.5

-20.8

-21.9

South Florida

Memphis

-13.6

-12.8

-14.3

Southern Miss.

Western Kentucky

6.8

4.8

5.6

Stanford

California

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

Texas Tech

Kansas St.

-1.6

-1.1

-2.3

Tulane

Central Florida

-9.5

-8.1

-9.6

Tulsa

Houston

0.6

0.7

0.1

UAB

Louisiana Tech

-4.4

-2.6

-4.1

UL-Monroe

Coastal Carolina

1.4

0.5

0.9

UNLV

San Jose St.

-2.5

-3.0

-3.3

USC

UCLA

12.2

12.9

13.2

Utah St.

Boise St.

-3.6

-4.3

-2.9

UTSA

Florida Atlantic

-19.8

-18.1

-21.3

Virginia

Liberty

18.6

17.4

18.3

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

5.0

5.3

5.6

Wake Forest

Duke

6.2

6.2

6.5

Washington St.

Oregon St.

15.1

13.3

15.7

West Virginia

Oklahoma St.

-5.8

-6.7

-6.0

Wisconsin

Purdue

19.5

19.4

20.0

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Alabama

Western Carolina

56

Auburn

Samford

49

Kentucky

UT-Martin

29

Mississippi St.

Abilene Christian

35

North Carolina

Mercer

38

Vanderbilt

East Tennessee

21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

2

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

3

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

4

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

5

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

8

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

9

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

10

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

11

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

12

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

13

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

14

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

15

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

16

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

17

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

18

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

19

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

20

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

21

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

22

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

23

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

24

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

25

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

27

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

28

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

29

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

30

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

31

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

33

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

34

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

35

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

36

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

37

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

38

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

39

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

40

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

41

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

42

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

43

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

45

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

46

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

47

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

48

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

49

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

50

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

51

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

52

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

53

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

54

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

55

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

56

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

57

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

58

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

59

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

60

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

61

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

62

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

63

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

64

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

65

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

67

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

68

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

69

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

70

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

71

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

72

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

74

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

75

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

79

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

80

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

82

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

83

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

84

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

85

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

86

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

87

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

88

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

89

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

90

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

91

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

92

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

93

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

94

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

95

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

98

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

99

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

101

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

102

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

103

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

104

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

105

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

106

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

107

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

108

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

109

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

111

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

112

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

114

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

115

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

116

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

118

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

119

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

122

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

124

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

125

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

126

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

128

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

129

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

130

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

6-0

9-1

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

4-2

7-3

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

2-4

4-6

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

5-1

9-1

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

5-1

9-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

3-3

6-4

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

5-1

7-2

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

1-5

3-7

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

97.0

97.7

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

8-0

11-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

4-4

6-5

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

3-3

7-3

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

3-4

5-5

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

1-5

4-6

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

4-3

6-4

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

1-5

4-6

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

4-3

6-4

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

5-2

7-3

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

5-2

7-3

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

3-4

4-6

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

4-2

7-3

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

2-5

4-6

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

1-6

2-8

ACC Averages

105.0

104.4

105.3

104.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

6-1

9-1

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

4-3

6-4

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

6-1

9-1

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

4-3

6-4

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

4-3

7-3

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

3-4

6-4

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

3-4

5-5

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

2-5

4-6

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

2-5

4-6

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

1-6

3-7

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

7-0

10-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

5-2

8-2

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

6-1

9-1

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

4-3

7-3

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

2-5

4-6

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

0-7

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

5-2

8-2

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

6-1

9-1

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

4-3

7-3

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

4-3

6-4

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

2-5

4-6

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

0-7

2-8

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

5-1

7-3

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

4-2

6-4

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

2-4

3-7

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

5-1

7-3

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

5-1

8-2

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

4-2

7-3

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

3-3

4-6

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

1-5

1-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

3-3

4-6

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

0-7

1-9

CUSA Averages

86.5

87.1

86.9

86.8

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

x

8-2

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

x

6-4

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

x

5-6

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

x

1-9

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

x

1-10

Indep. Averages

89.9

90.5

89.6

90.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

3-3

5-5

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

3-3

4-6

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

5-1

6-4

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

3-3

4-6

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

2-4

3-7

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

0-6

0-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

5-2

7-4

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-3

4-6

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

3-3

4-6

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

5-2

7-4

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

3-3

6-4

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

2-4

5-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.9

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

6-0

9-1

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

5-1

8-2

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

5-1

6-4

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

3-3

6-4

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

3-3

4-6

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

5-2

8-2

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

4-3

7-4

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

2-4

4-6

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

1-5

4-6

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

3-3

6-4

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

1-6

2-8

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.5

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

7-0

9-1

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

2-5

5-5

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

2-5

5-5

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

3-5

4-6

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

4-3

5-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

6-1

9-1

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

6-2

7-4

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

2-5

5-5

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

4-3

4-6

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-5

4-6

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6-1

9-1

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

7-2

9-2

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

3-3

5-5

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

2-4

5-5

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

3-5

5-5

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

3-5

4-7

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

6-0

10-0

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

6-1

9-1

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

4-3

7-3

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

4-2

7-3

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

2-5

4-6

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

2-5

4-7

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

113.7

111.9

113.5

113.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

5-1

9-1

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

4-2

6-4

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

3-3

5-5

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

3-3

6-4

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

1-5

4-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

5-1

8-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

4-2

6-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

3-3

4-6

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

2-4

3-7

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

0-6

1-9

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.0

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.9

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.0

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.8

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

SMU

5

Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgia could be headed to the playoffs if they both win out, and then Georgia pulls off a mild upset in the SEC Championship Game. There is also a small chance that Alabama could sneak back into the picture if LSU beats Georgia, and then Alabama thrashes Auburn on The Plains to show the Committee that losing Tua Tagovailoa didn’t weaken the Tide enough to knock them out of the Playoff picture. Either way, there is a decent chance that the SEC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially if Oklahoma loses another game and Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12.

Alabama and Florida are almost assured of receiving New Year’s Six Bowl Bids, and if Alabama sneaks into the Playoffs, then Georgia will replace the Tide in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Citrus bowl would then take Auburn. Texas A&M is almost a cinch to go to the Texas Bowl this year, where some backroom deals are being made to place Texas in there as a dream match-up. Tennessee is one win away from a possible destination in Jacksonville in the Gator Bowl, while Kentucky needs only to beat UT-Martin this week to earn a trip to a possible Outback Bowl game against a possible neighboring rival.

At this point, there are no more happy guarantees for the great SEC. Mississippi State is going to beat Abilene Christian this weekend to get to 5-6, but then they must turn around and face Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day, while the Rebels get this week off to prepare an extra few days. The way the two teams are playing presently, Ole Miss looks like the superior team, so we will count out Mississippi State at 5-7.

Missouri is 5-5, and the Tigers still have to play Arkansas, so even though they have lost four consecutive games, Mizzou is going to be 6-6. The Tigers are still in limbo with the NCAA. While Missouri is on probation and has a bowl ban, their legal team has filed an appeal, and the NCAA has yet to rule on it and might not rule on it until after bowl bids have been issued. It looks like the NCAA is going to turn the other cheek to help the SEC out, and then rule after the bowl season on the matter, or they could rule that Missouri has done enough in-house corrections to get a reprieve. Then, again, there is a lot of dissension going on in Columbia, and the school may choose to close up shop after the Arkansas game and self-impose on taking a meaningless bowl game at 6-6.

The SEC has agreements with 11 bowls not including the Playoffs. If two SEC teams make the Playoffs, then the SEC will have the need for 13 bowl eligible teams and will most likely have eight or nine bowl eligible teams. If Maalox wants to create a nice promotion, they will send free cases of their product to the members of the Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls, and possibly the Belk Bowl.

With the possibility of some really weak bowl match-ups, you can expect this season to produce at least one if not two or three “backroom” deals to place better at-large teams in the bowls where the opponent is a Power Five team. A 9-3 Power Conference team playing a 6-6 Group of 5 team just cannot be allowed.

What you see in our Bowl Projections are the raw projections strictly following the bowl rules. As information leaks about potential back-room deals, we will try to stay on top of all the news and rumors.

Here is a conference by conference look at the bowl eligible teams and those that can still become bowl eligible.

American Athletic

Bowl Eligible: 7
Memphis, SMU, Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Temple

Still Alive: South Florida

If either Memphis or Cincinnati win out to capture the AAC Title, that team will head to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 best champion. SMU could also earn this bid if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, while the Mustangs win out, including beating Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Navy has a remote chance at getting to the Cotton Bowl. Memphis and SMU would both have to lose in the regular season, while Navy wins out and beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game, and Boise State would have to lose in the Mountain West.
South Florida merely has to beat Memphis and Central Florida to earn a bowl, so it isn’t going to be a Bulls Market this year.

Atlantic Coast (+ Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh

Still Alive: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, N. Carolina St., and Syracuse

Clemson has the best chance of any team of going 13-0 before the Playoffs, but we are starting to see just a little extra possibility that if Virginia Tech takes care of Pittsburgh and Virginia, the Hokies will be a little more formidable than the experts are given them credit for being. Va. Tech was dismissed for dead earlier in the season, but Justin Fuente has done an incredible job re-shaping the Hokie team to where they look like the second best team in the league. If Tech beats Pitt and Virginia, they will most likely be the Orange Bowl representative even if Clemson pounds them in the ACC Championship Game.

At this point, our forecast calls for North Carolina to top Mercer and NC State to finish 6-6 and grab the last bowl spot that goes to the ACC. We don’t see a path to 6-6 for the other teams still alive.

Big 12

Bowl Eligible: 6
Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St.

Still Alive: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The PiRate Ratings do not forecast Oklahoma to win out and sneak into the Playoffs, but don’t assume we are picking Baylor to get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have to go to Stillwater to face the much-improved Cowboys, and we believe Oklahoma St. has a very decent chance to pull off the upset and ruin the league’s chances to get into the Playoffs.

Of the teams still fighting for bowl eligibility, we believe TCU can beat West Virginia in Fort Worth to get their sixth win, but Tech and the Mountaineers might both be staring at 5-7 seasons.

Big Ten

Bowl Eligible: 7

Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Still Alive: Michigan St., Nebraska, Purdue

This is the most interesting race for the Playoffs and Bowl seeding. First, Ohio State must now close with wins against Penn State, Michigan, and the Western Division Champion in the Conference Championship Game to guarantee a Playoff spot. Only the Penn State game is in the Giant Horseshoe. We remember 50 years ago quite well, when an 8-0 Ohio State team that many were calling the greatest college football team since Army in 1945, went to the Big House to play a two-loss Michigan team that remembered being thrashed in Columbus the previous year. That Ohio State team was a double-digit favorite and got thrashed by a Michigan defense that played well over its potential that day.

Assuming Ohio State handles Penn State this weekend, could history repeat itself 50 years later? Of course, James Franklin has a history of getting underdog teams psyched up to win big road games, so the Nittany Lions could still be in the Big Ten Championship picture.

On the other side, Minnesota still controls its own destiny, but then so does Wisconsin. The Gophers did everything but beat Iowa in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes frequently win games at home with final stats that on paper look like they lost by a couple of touchdowns. The Gophers get Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

There is even a bizarre scenario where Illinois could win the West Division flag. This requires Minnesota to lose to Northwestern and Wisconsin; for Wisconsin to lose to Purdue, while the Illini beat Iowa and Northwestern. The chances for this to happen are about the same as Lovie Smith taking over Alabama for Nick Saban in 2020.

Michigan State is now 4-6, and the Spartans look like an offense from the days of one platoon football. Their defense has fallen apart with all the extra snaps it has had to face, but now Sparty catches a break. MSU closes with Rutgers and Maryland, so the Green and White have about a 95% chance of improving to 6-6 and getting a bottom tier bowl bid.

Nebraska is 4-6 with games remaining against Maryland and Iowa. We have a suspicion that Scott Frost will have his team prepared to face the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium and will pull off the upset to close at 6-6 and get the final bowl bid in this league.

Purdue must beat both Wisconsin and Indiana to get to 6-6, and by the time they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, their long snapper might be the backup quarterback. Better luck next year Boilermakers.

Because the Big Ten has the most strict bowl tie-ins, certain teams cannot go to certain bowls if they have been to them in the last five years. What this means is:

The Citrus Bowl will not invite Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State

The Outback Bowl will not invite Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Holiday Bowl will not invite Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Gator Bowl will not invite Iowa or Penn St.

The Pinstripe Bowl will not invite Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin

The Redbox Bowl will not invite Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, or Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl will not invite Minnesota

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss., UAB

Still Alive: Charlotte, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UTSA

Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, so it the Thundering Herd beat Charlotte and FIU, they will be East Division champs. In the West, Louisiana Tech controls their destiny, but if the Bulldogs lose to UAB, then Southern Miss can win out and take the division flag.

Of the teams still alive, Charlotte and North Texas have the best chances to get to six wins, while FIU and UTSA have close to zero chances to do so. Because this league could have eight bowl eligible teams, and they have just five primary tie-ins, two or three teams will get at-large invitations, and deals could be made to send better teams to at-large spots.

Independents (not Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 2
BYU, Liberty

Still Alive: Army

BYU has earned its guaranteed Hawaii Bowl bid with its sixth win. Liberty doesn’t have a primary bowl bid, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl. Since the AAC is likely to send its champion to the Cotton Bowl, the Cure Bowl bid could be there for Liberty.

Army must beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Navy to get to 7-6. We don’t see it happening this year.

Mid-American

Bowl Eligible: 4
Miami (O), Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive: Buffalo, Kent St., Ohio, Ball St., Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois

Not having a dominating team and having to play games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays have led to MACtion being one big season-long toss-up with a lot of parity. Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division title, as the Red Hawks hold all potential tiebreakers over Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St. The West is a different story as four teams are still technically alive. Western Michigan will win the division if the Broncos beat both Ohio and Northern Illinois, but both games are on the road, and we don’t believe WMU will go 2-0.

Central Michigan must win at Ball State and then beat Toledo at home and then hope that WMU loses to Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois and Toledo are still mathematically alive in the race but need multiple things to happen to sneak into the top spot in the West.

There are still six teams trying to become eligible, and by the time the regular season concludes, we believe the MAC will have eight bowl eligible teams with five teams at 6-6. Not all these 6-6 teams will have bowl spots available to them, but the MAC should receive at least one extra bowl invitation and possibly two.

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Utah St., Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St.

Still Alive: Colorado St., Fresno St., San Jose St.

Boise State must win out and hope for the AAC to implode and produce a two-loss league champion in order for the Broncos to ascend to the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. could be 12-1 and relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl. If that happens, and the Pac-12 has a 6-6 team available, there is a chance that a deal could be made to send the Pac-12 team east and bring a 10 or 11-win team like Appalachian State or SMU to Vegas. Or, Boise State could be sent east to play in a Liberty, Music City, or Belk Bowl where no SEC team is available.

Air Force is looking at 10-2 and another potential bad bowl match-up, and because the Falcons can basically bring the entire Academy, they can fill up a bowl stadium even if it’s 1,500 miles from Colorado Springs.

In the West, the winner of the San Diego State-Hawaii game this week gets to face Boise State with a chance for the big upset. Technically, Air Force and Utah State are still alive in the Mountain, but Boise State has to lose twice for that to happen.
Of the three teams still with a chance to become bowl eligible, Colorado State has to beat both Wyoming and Boise State, so the Rams are staying home for the holidays. Fresno State and San Jose State are looking at a season finale where they will face off in San Jose with probably 5-6 records. The Spartans look like the stronger team in November, so we’ll give SJSU the final bid.

Pac-12

Bowl Eligible: 4
Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah

Still Alive: California, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St. Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, UCLA

The entire conference is still alive for a bowl! That’s a blessing and a curse. There is so much parity that when USC beat Utah, they severely damaged this league’s chance to sneak a team into the Playoffs. Even if either Utah or Oregon wins out to finish 12-1, they are almost assuredly relegated to Pasadena and not to the Playoffs. Oregon dominated Auburn until the final few minutes to start the season, and that game is just as important as the Utah loss to the Trojans.

Of the eight remaining teams not yet bowl eligible, we believe that three will get to six wins. Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA don’t look like they have enough talent to win the games they must win to get to 6-6. Any 6-6 team in this league will be in a bowl.

Southeastern

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M

Still Alive: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi St.

See above for the explanation for the SEC. We believe nine teams will be bowl eligible, or eight if Missouri either self-imposes a bowl ban, or the NCAA denies their appeal before December.

Sunbelt

Bowl Eligible: 5
Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St.. Arkansas St., Louisiana

Still Alive: Coastal Carolina, Troy, UL-Monroe

It will take a monumental chain of events for Appy State and Lousiana not to meet in the SBC Championship Game. Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Troy all still hold miniscule division title hopes in the East, while Arkansas St. and UL-Monroe are still mathematically alive in the West.

This is the only conference where we don’t see an additional team still alive becoming bowl eligible.

This Week’s Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Nevada]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Central Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Ball St.

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

California

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Western Kentucky

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Central Florida

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Charlotte]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Wake Forest

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Marshall

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Eastern Michigan]

Virginia

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[North Texas]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Hawaii

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Alabama

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[UAB]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 10, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 10, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 12

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio

Western Mich.

-2.6

-2.6

-2.0

Akron

Eastern Mich.

-14.9

-15.1

-16.4

 

 

Wednesday

November 13

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O)

Bowling Green

17.8

16.7

18.3

Toledo

Northern Illinois

1.1

2.3

1.8

 

 

Thursday

November 14

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Kent St.

Buffalo

-3.2

-4.0

-4.4

Pittsburgh

North Carolina

3.3

3.2

2.9

 

 

Friday

November 15

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

-3.0

-3.9

-2.8

San Diego St.

Fresno St.

4.7

5.3

3.9

 

 

Saturday

November 16

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rutgers

Ohio St.

-53.2

-52.7

-55.8

Auburn

Georgia

-1.2

-1.2

-1.7

Utah

UCLA

24.9

24.0

26.0

Nebraska

Wisconsin

-14.0

-13.1

-14.7

Michigan

Michigan St.

14.5

14.1

15.5

Iowa

Minnesota

2.9

1.1

2.9

Oklahoma St.

Kansas

17.6

17.1

17.3

California

USC

-0.6

-1.3

-0.5

Washington St.

Stanford

10.3

10.2

11.1

Oregon St.

Arizona St.

-3.9

-2.1

-4.5

Northwestern

Massachusetts

48.4

45.6

48.4

Mississippi St.

Alabama

-20.2

-20.3

-16.8

Penn St.

Indiana

15.8

15.7

16.1

Missouri

Florida

-11.4

-11.2

-11.7

Texas Tech

TCU

1.3

-1.0

0.3

Temple

Tulane

1.7

0.3

2.0

UAB

UTEP

22.0

19.9

21.8

Notre Dame

Navy

23.0

19.0

21.8

Arkansas St.

Coastal Carolina

7.2

6.2

7.4

Georgia Southern

UL-Monroe

14.1

13.4

14.0

Texas St.

Troy

-7.2

-7.3

-7.0

Clemson

Wake Forest

34.5

33.0

35.4

Kansas St.

West Virginia

15.1

15.4

15.9

Houston

Memphis

-5.9

-5.1

-4.6

Ball St.

Central Mich.

4.8

3.7

4.1

Iowa St.

Texas

8.3

8.5

8.8

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

-6.3

-7.8

-6.6

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

-12.3

-12.4

-12.4

Duke

Syracuse

7.7

7.8

8.1

UNLV

Hawaii

-7.5

-7.2

-6.8

Utah St.

Wyoming

2.8

-0.1

2.8

Middle Tennessee

Rice

12.8

11.1

13.6

South Alabama

Louisiana

-24.3

-22.1

-25.2

UTSA

Southern Miss.

-18.5

-15.2

-19.0

Ole Miss

LSU

-21.7

-20.1

-21.7

South Florida

Cincinnati

-13.2

-11.8

-13.4

Colorado St.

Air Force

-15.1

-12.8

-15.3

Baylor

Oklahoma

-6.3

-5.4

-6.4

Texas A&M

South Carolina

8.9

9.0

8.6

North Carolina St.

Louisville

0.5

0.1

0.4

Georgia St.

Appalachian St.

-11.6

-9.3

-11.3

Boise St.

New Mexico

28.6

26.2

29.9

Oregon

Arizona

27.5

27.9

29.2

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Florida St.

Alabama St.

39

Army

VMI

31

BYU

Idaho St.

31

New Mexico St.

Incarnate Word

10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.6

139.8

141.9

140.8

2

Clemson

135.9

133.8

137.0

135.6

3

Alabama

134.3

131.1

134.8

133.4

4

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

5

Georgia

127.1

125.3

127.3

126.6

6

Florida

125.3

122.6

124.9

124.2

7

Utah

124.0

122.9

124.8

123.9

8

Penn St.

123.6

122.7

123.7

123.4

9

Michigan

123.3

121.9

123.6

122.9

10

Auburn

122.8

121.1

122.6

122.2

11

Oklahoma

122.4

121.6

121.9

122.0

12

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Minnesota

118.9

118.8

118.8

118.8

15

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

16

Notre Dame

118.3

116.8

118.1

117.7

17

Iowa St.

115.6

116.2

116.0

115.9

18

Texas A&M

116.5

114.9

115.4

115.6

19

Washington

113.8

113.5

114.8

114.0

20

Baylor

113.2

113.2

112.5

113.0

21

Kansas St.

112.2

112.1

112.2

112.2

22

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

112.0

111.4

23

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.8

115.0

111.3

24

Indiana

110.9

109.9

110.6

110.5

25

Oklahoma St.

110.3

111.0

110.0

110.4

26

Texas

110.3

110.6

110.3

110.4

27

Washington St.

110.6

109.7

110.9

110.4

28

Missouri

110.9

108.4

110.2

109.8

29

Michigan St.

110.3

109.4

109.6

109.8

30

South Carolina

110.6

108.9

109.8

109.8

31

Tennessee

109.9

109.7

109.2

109.6

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.3

108.0

109.5

108.6

33

U S C

108.2

108.7

108.7

108.6

34

T C U

107.4

109.9

107.7

108.3

35

Kentucky

108.3

106.9

107.0

107.4

36

Cincinnati

107.3

106.8

107.7

107.3

37

Virginia

107.1

107.0

107.1

107.1

38

Ole Miss

106.8

106.1

106.9

106.6

39

Arizona St.

106.6

105.9

106.9

106.5

40

Memphis

106.2

106.2

107.0

106.5

41

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

42

Texas Tech

106.2

106.4

105.5

106.0

43

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

106.3

106.0

44

North Carolina

105.7

105.5

106.4

105.9

45

Boise St.

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

46

SMU

105.2

104.9

105.9

105.3

47

California

104.6

104.3

105.3

104.7

48

Air Force

104.0

105.3

104.8

104.7

49

Virginia Tech

104.4

104.5

105.1

104.7

50

Florida St.

104.4

104.4

104.6

104.5

51

Wake Forest

104.4

103.8

104.7

104.3

52

Illinois

103.8

104.7

103.6

104.1

53

Purdue

103.7

103.5

103.1

103.4

54

Nebraska

103.4

103.9

102.6

103.3

55

Duke

103.5

102.7

103.2

103.1

56

Stanford

103.3

102.5

102.8

102.9

57

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.6

102.7

58

Boston College

102.1

101.7

102.3

102.0

59

U C L A

102.0

101.9

101.8

101.9

60

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

61

Northwestern

102.1

101.0

100.7

101.3

62

Tulane

100.0

100.8

100.5

100.4

63

Wyoming

99.3

101.4

100.0

100.2

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

West Virginia

100.1

99.7

99.3

99.7

66

Navy

98.2

100.8

99.2

99.4

67

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

68

Temple

98.6

98.1

99.6

98.8

69

Louisville

98.8

98.5

98.6

98.6

70

Syracuse

98.8

98.0

98.1

98.3

71

Florida Atlantic

97.8

97.8

99.2

98.3

72

Houston

97.3

98.2

99.4

98.3

73

Western Michigan

98.4

97.4

98.1

98.0

74

Louisiana Tech

97.1

97.5

97.6

97.4

75

San Diego St.

96.6

98.2

96.2

97.0

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.3

97.1

96.4

79

Maryland

97.2

96.0

95.6

96.3

80

Kansas

95.8

96.8

95.7

96.1

81

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

82

North Carolina St.

96.2

95.6

96.0

95.9

83

Fresno St.

94.9

95.9

95.3

95.4

84

Hawaii

94.9

96.2

93.8

95.0

85

Army

94.9

95.1

94.4

94.8

86

Georgia Tech

95.1

93.7

95.5

94.8

87

Tulsa

93.3

94.2

94.6

94.0

88

Buffalo

93.1

93.8

94.6

93.8

89

Vanderbilt

94.5

93.0

93.1

93.5

90

Western Kentucky

92.7

93.6

94.3

93.5

91

Ohio

93.3

92.3

93.6

93.1

92

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

93

South Florida

91.1

92.0

91.3

91.5

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

91.0

90.6

91.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.1

91.2

90.4

90.5

98

Ball St.

90.6

90.2

90.8

90.5

99

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.9

90.7

89.9

100

Middle Tennessee

90.0

89.2

90.1

89.8

101

Northern Illinois

89.7

88.9

89.8

89.5

102

Central Michigan

88.4

89.0

89.3

88.9

103

Colorado St.

87.4

91.0

88.0

88.8

104

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

105

San Jose St.

88.0

89.9

88.2

88.7

106

U A B

87.7

89.5

88.1

88.5

107

Nevada

87.8

89.4

87.3

88.2

108

North Texas

87.8

87.4

88.1

87.8

109

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

110

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

111

Arkansas

87.1

87.0

86.3

86.8

112

Charlotte

85.8

86.2

86.2

86.1

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

114

Florida Int’l.

85.5

85.2

85.2

85.3

115

Eastern Michigan

84.4

84.5

84.7

84.6

116

East Carolina

83.6

85.0

84.0

84.2

117

Rutgers

84.4

84.1

83.2

83.9

118

U N L V

83.4

85.0

83.0

83.8

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

80.1

82.5

78.8

80.5

121

Rice

79.7

80.6

78.9

79.8

122

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.7

75.6

76.3

123

New Mexico St.

75.7

77.5

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.3

74.1

74.3

74.3

126

Old Dominion

73.7

74.0

73.8

73.8

127

Connecticut

70.9

73.7

69.9

71.5

128

U T E P

68.8

72.7

69.4

70.3

129

Akron

67.1

66.9

65.8

66.6

130

Massachusetts

56.3

57.9

54.8

56.3

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.4

2

BTen

111.2

3

B12

109.4

4

P12

107.3

5

ACC

105.0

6

AAC

97.4

7

MWC

93.9

8

SUN

91.0

9

Ind

89.7

10

MAC

87.1

11

CUSA

86.7

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Alabama

5

Georgia

6

Oregon

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

Navy

5

SMU

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

112.0

111.4

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

107.3

106.8

107.7

107.3

5-0

8-1

Temple

98.6

98.1

99.6

98.8

3-2

6-3

South Florida

91.1

92.0

91.3

91.5

2-3

4-5

East Carolina

83.6

85.0

84.0

84.2

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

70.9

73.7

69.9

71.5

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

106.2

106.2

107.0

106.5

4-1

8-1

SMU

105.2

104.9

105.9

105.3

5-1

9-1

Tulane

100.0

100.8

100.5

100.4

3-2

6-3

Navy

98.2

100.8

99.2

99.4

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.3

98.2

99.4

98.3

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

93.3

94.2

94.6

94.0

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.9

133.8

137.0

135.6

7-0

10-0

Florida St.

104.4

104.4

104.6

104.5

4-4

5-5

Wake Forest

104.4

103.8

104.7

104.3

3-2

7-2

Boston College

102.1

101.7

102.3

102.0

3-4

5-5

Louisville

98.8

98.5

98.6

98.6

3-3

5-4

Syracuse

98.8

98.0

98.1

98.3

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.2

95.6

96.0

95.9

1-4

4-5

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.3

108.0

109.5

108.6

4-3

6-4

Virginia

107.1

107.0

107.1

107.1

5-2

7-3

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

106.3

106.0

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.7

105.5

106.4

105.9

3-3

4-5

Virginia Tech

104.4

104.5

105.1

104.7

4-2

6-3

Duke

103.5

102.7

103.2

103.1

2-4

4-5

Georgia Tech

95.1

93.7

95.5

94.8

1-5

2-7

ACC Averages

105.1

104.5

105.3

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.4

121.6

121.9

122.0

5-1

8-1

Iowa St.

115.6

116.2

116.0

115.9

3-3

5-4

Baylor

113.2

113.2

112.5

113.0

6-0

9-0

Kansas St.

112.2

112.1

112.2

112.2

3-3

6-3

Oklahoma St.

110.3

111.0

110.0

110.4

3-3

6-3

Texas

110.3

110.6

110.3

110.4

4-2

6-3

T C U

107.4

109.9

107.7

108.3

2-4

4-5

Texas Tech

106.2

106.4

105.5

106.0

2-4

4-5

West Virginia

100.1

99.7

99.3

99.7

1-5

3-6

Kansas

95.8

96.8

95.7

96.1

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.6

139.8

141.9

140.8

6-0

9-0

Penn St.

123.6

122.7

123.7

123.4

5-1

8-1

Michigan

123.3

121.9

123.6

122.9

4-2

7-2

Indiana

110.9

109.9

110.6

110.5

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

110.3

109.4

109.6

109.8

2-4

4-5

Maryland

97.2

96.0

95.6

96.3

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.4

84.1

83.2

83.9

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

4-2

7-2

Minnesota

118.9

118.8

118.8

118.8

6-0

9-0

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

3-3

6-3

Illinois

103.8

104.7

103.6

104.1

4-3

6-4

Purdue

103.7

103.5

103.1

103.4

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.4

103.9

102.6

103.3

2-4

4-5

Northwestern

102.1

101.0

100.7

101.3

0-7

1-8

Big Ten Averages

111.5

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

97.8

97.8

99.2

98.3

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.7

93.6

94.3

93.5

4-2

6-4

Marshall

91.0

90.6

91.8

91.1

4-1

6-3

Middle Tennessee

90.0

89.2

90.1

89.8

2-3

3-6

Charlotte

85.8

86.2

86.2

86.1

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.5

85.2

85.2

85.3

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.7

74.0

73.8

73.8

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

97.1

97.5

97.6

97.4

5-0

8-1

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.3

97.1

96.4

4-1

6-3

U A B

87.7

89.5

88.1

88.5

3-2

6-3

North Texas

87.8

87.4

88.1

87.8

3-3

4-6

Rice

79.7

80.6

78.9

79.8

0-5

0-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.7

75.6

76.3

3-2

4-5

U T E P

68.8

72.7

69.4

70.3

0-6

1-8

CUSA Averages

86.4

87.0

86.8

86.7

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.3

116.8

118.1

117.7

x

7-2

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.6

102.7

x

5-4

Army

94.9

95.1

94.4

94.8

x

4-6

Liberty

90.1

91.2

90.4

90.5

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.7

77.5

75.5

76.2

x

0-9

Massachusetts

56.3

57.9

54.8

56.3

x

1-9

Indep. Averages

89.6

90.2

89.3

89.7

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

93.1

93.8

94.6

93.8

3-2

5-4

Ohio

93.3

92.3

93.6

93.1

3-2

4-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.9

90.7

89.9

4-1

5-4

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

2-3

3-6

Bowling Green

74.3

74.1

74.3

74.3

2-3

3-6

Akron

67.1

66.9

65.8

66.6

0-5

0-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.4

97.4

98.1

98.0

4-2

6-4

Ball St.

90.6

90.2

90.8

90.5

3-2

4-5

Northern Illinois

89.7

88.9

89.8

89.5

2-3

3-6

Central Michigan

88.4

89.0

89.3

88.9

4-2

6-4

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

3-2

6-3

Eastern Michigan

84.4

84.5

84.7

84.6

1-4

4-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

5-0

8-1

Air Force

104.0

105.3

104.8

104.7

4-1

7-2

Wyoming

99.3

101.4

100.0

100.2

3-2

6-3

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

4-1

5-4

Colorado St.

87.4

91.0

88.0

88.8

3-2

4-5

New Mexico

80.1

82.5

78.8

80.5

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

96.6

98.2

96.2

97.0

4-2

7-2

Fresno St.

94.9

95.9

95.3

95.4

2-3

4-5

Hawaii

94.9

96.2

93.8

95.0

3-3

6-4

San Jose St.

88.0

89.9

88.2

88.7

1-5

4-6

Nevada

87.8

89.4

87.3

88.2

3-3

6-4

U N L V

83.4

85.0

83.0

83.8

1-5

2-7

MWC Averages

93.4

94.9

93.4

93.9

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

6-0

8-1

Washington

113.8

113.5

114.8

114.0

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

110.6

109.7

110.9

110.4

1-5

4-5

California

104.6

104.3

105.3

104.7

2-4

5-4

Stanford

103.3

102.5

102.8

102.9

3-4

4-5

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

3-3

4-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

124.0

122.9

124.8

123.9

5-1

8-1

U S C

108.2

108.7

108.7

108.6

5-2

6-4

Arizona St.

106.6

105.9

106.9

106.5

2-4

5-4

U C L A

102.0

101.9

101.8

101.9

4-2

4-5

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-4

4-5

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.1

125.3

127.3

126.6

5-1

8-1

Florida

125.3

122.6

124.9

124.2

6-2

8-2

Missouri

110.9

108.4

110.2

109.8

2-3

5-4

South Carolina

110.6

108.9

109.8

109.8

3-4

4-6

Tennessee

109.9

109.7

109.2

109.6

3-3

5-5

Kentucky

108.3

106.9

107.0

107.4

2-5

4-5

Vanderbilt

94.5

93.0

93.1

93.5

1-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

134.3

131.1

134.8

133.4

5-1

8-1

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

5-0

9-0

Auburn

122.8

121.1

122.6

122.2

4-2

7-2

Texas A&M

116.5

114.9

115.4

115.6

3-2

6-3

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.8

115.0

111.3

2-4

4-5

Ole Miss

106.8

106.1

106.9

106.6

2-4

4-6

Arkansas

87.1

87.0

86.3

86.8

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

114.1

112.3

113.9

113.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

4-1

8-1

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

3-2

5-4

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

3-2

6-3

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

2-3

4-5

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

1-4

4-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

4-1

7-2

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

3-2

5-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

3-2

4-5

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

2-3

3-6

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

0-5

1-8

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.0

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Air Force]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Memphis

Georgia Southern

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Wyoming

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Western Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Buffalo

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

[Toledo]

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Western Kentucky

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Central Florida

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[UAB]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Virginia

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

[San Jose St.]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Baylor

Boise St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Marshall

[Eastern Michigan]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Liberty]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Georgia

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Missouri *

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Kentucky

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Appalachian St.

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Alabama

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Charlotte]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Ball St.

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

[Nevada]

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Arkansas St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

LSU

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oregon

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Clemson

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

* Missouri is on probation and technically not eligible for a bowl, but the Tigers have filed an appeal that has yet to be judged by the NCAA Infractions Committee.  If they do not issue a decision before December, then Missouri can accept a bowl bid even though they have a bowl ban in place.

 

Questions and Answers

 

Every year, we receive numerous questions from you the reader.  When we get enough, we try to answer them in one post.  The number one question we receive from people that know us is: “How do you ask a question on your site?”

So we can reduce Spam and not give a link, this is how you do it.  Go to our sister site that you can see to the side on our Blogroll under “The PiRate Ratings, ” which is the 6th one down the page.  This will take you to our sister website.  Once at this other website, click on the Contact Us link, and you can ask your question after you fill out your information.

Here are the questions we have received since the start of football season.  Some of these have been asked every year for the last five or six seasons.

 

Q1. What does PiRate, Mean, and Bias mean in your ratings?

A1. We have one basic power rating that we compile based on game statistics and strength of schedule.  We have three ways of calculating this data.  The PiRate Rating is our old formula that we have used for many years with little change in calculation.  We can also estimate FCS team power ratings with this formula.  The Mean formula takes all the data and weighs each item identically.  There are seven basic grade scores that are then divided by seven to get this rating.  The Bias formula does apply weighted grades to the parts of the game that we believe are more important than others, thus the grading is biased in favor of four of the seven grading scores.

Q2. What is your home field advantage for football?

A2. The PiRate Ratings use differing home field advantages for every game.  If Miami of Florida is hosting Florida International, the home field advantage is going to be much different than if they were to host Hawaii, Buffalo, or Washington.  Some of the time, a road team might actually receive some advantage over the home team.  Let’s say a 2-7 team with little fan support is hosting a team from an adjacent state in a conference game, when the other team is trying to get bowl eligible, and there are fans of this other team just 45 minutes away from the visiting team’s stadium.  Let’s say that about 75% of the fans at the game will be fans of the visiting team, and the home team will have to use visual signals to snap the ball.  It happens.

Q3. How come you have a 5-2 team rated ahead of a 7-0 team in the same conference, and the 5-2 team lost to the 7-0 team in September?

A3. The PiRate Ratings aren’t about what happened three, four, five, or six weeks ago.  The goal of these ratings is to try to predict the outcomes of this week’s games.  For instance, you might notice that Alabama is still rated ahead of LSU in our ratings.  We believe if the two teams were to play again this week on a neutral field, Alabama would win the game.  It might be a lot easier to see this like baseball.  The Padres might beat the Dodgers on Thursday and Friday, but the Dodgers will still be favored to beat them on Saturday and Sunday.  These ratings are meant to be used to predict the future and not rate the past. 

Q4. Why do you like Ohio State so much and always move them up to number one every year?

A4. These are mechanical power ratings.  We could teach somebody else how to calculate the ratings with maybe 3 to 4 hours of teaching.  There is no real human factor where we can say that Ohio State is our favorite team, so let’s make them number one.  Ohio State is number one because the statistical numbers make them number one.  We like Ohio State no more or less than Illinois or Michigan or Rice or San Jose St.  What we love is to be accurate.  Thus, the real thing we root to be number one is our ratings.

Q5. What does your power rating number mean for each team?

A5. Our ratings are calculated so that the average FBS team is rated 100.00.  If a team has a power rating of 106.8, this means they are 6.8 points better than the average FBS team.  If they have a rating of 87.4, this means they are 12.6 points weaker than the average team.

Q6.  Why do you only issue one spread for FBS vs. FCS games?

A6. The Mean and Bias ratings require more statistical analysis using a lot more data than the regular PiRate Rating.  We cannot calculate these ratings for FCS teams.  The regular PiRate Rating consists of data calculation that takes about 3 minutes per FCS team.  And, the PiRate Rating for FCS teams is only an approximation rating.  We do not use the same adjustment to  the ratings of FBS teams that play FCS teams. 

Q7. I noticed that Nebraska did not play this weekend, yet your rating for Nebraska went up a little.  Why is this?

A7. There are two factors at play here.  Nebraska’s opponents played to date did play this past weekend, and their ratings adjusted, which adjusted Nebraska’s rating.  Also, the week off usually helps teams.  Thus, Nebraska’s three ratings rose by about 0.6 points each.

Q8. How do you calculate your Bowl and Playoff Projections?  It does not look like you use the “if the season ended today” method.

A8. We do not use the “if the season ended today” method.  We estimate each team’s final won-loss record and then try to do the bowl committees’ work by extending invitations to the bowl teams based on the criteria set in advance.  When all of our competitors agreed 100% that Penn State was their choice for the Rose Bowl, we had Minnesota projected there.  Expect a bunch more sites to now place Minnesota in the Rose Bowl in their projections.

For what it’s worth, in this week’s projections, we only had 79 bowl eligible teams, which means just one bowl eligible team would be excluded in our mind.  Because Missouri could easily lose their appeal before December, then team #79 could become #78.  That team this week is Ohio.

Q9. What do you think about the 4-team Playoff?

A9. While we believe that in most years only four teams might be championship quality, we don’t believe that Power 5 conference champions should be left out.  At the minimum, the NCAA Playoffs should be a 6-team tournament with all Power 5 conference champions making the playoffs along with the top remaining team.  We support the 8-team or even 12-team playoff.  In a perfect world, we would support a 12- team playoff with the reduction of bowls to 30.  The opening round from 12 to 8 with the top 4 getting byes would be played on the better seeded teams’ home field.  The Quarterfinal Round would then be held at four existing bowls, one in each region.  For instance, the Pinstripe, Music City, Alamo, and Holiday Bowls could host this round.

Q10. Who is the best team of all time?

A10. We can only offer our choice from teams that we have seen in our lifetime, and then only offer up who we believe was the most dominant team in the year they played.  Our answer is the 1971 Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They beat teams that finished second, third, and fourth by a combined 105-44, including destroying 11-0 Alabama in the Orange Bowl 38-6.  They also beat 8-win Utah State and Iowa State and 7-win Hawaii by a combined 124-9.  This team had 8 All-Americans and 19 players that made the All Big 8 teams.  22 players on this team were taken in an NFL Draft after their senior years, including multiple reserves.

Q11. If computers are so incredible, why can’t any beat the spread more than 60% of the time?

A11. That is probably the best question we receive.  Computers may or may not be able to beat the spread 60% of the time, but when they do, none of us ever discover this, because it is never made available to the public.

At the Prediction Tracker, where the PiRate Ratings have finished number one against the spread and in picking winners multiple times, in a typical year, the top computer program beats the spread about 56% of the time.  The top geniuses in Las Vegas, the ones that are severely restricted in how much they can wager at each book (and frequently hire others to pretend to be innocent bettors with a system to place their bets for them), beat the spread 60-65% of the time.  

Before you say that the computers aren’t up to snuff when compared to the Vegas brains, you must understand something.  These brainy geniuses don’t pick every game on the board.  At the Prediction Tracker, we pick every game against the spread.  Some of the multi-millionaires winning in Vegas cannot pick every game and beat 56%.  On a typical week, the top bettors might pick as few as three games and seldom more than nine.  They tend to go with an odd number of games to avoid a .500 outcome which guarantees a loss.  Picking three games and going 2-1 or picking 9 games and going 6-3 on a semi-consistent basis will cause the books to restrict or prohibit these smarts from wagering.

Q12. Why do you withhold basketball ratings until after New Year’s Day?

A12. This isn’t a football question, but six of you have asked this of us.  Our college basketball ratings are based on weighted four factors statistics and strength of schedule.  Until teams have played about 10 games, the statistics don’t mean enough to be viable.  The variance in these stats is much too wide until every team has had 10 games to reduce it.  For instance, if we issued ratings today, Utah would be 10 points ahead of Kentucky as the best team.  When you win by 94 points over a team rated in the bottom 5, it is like beating Michigan State by 10.  Therefore, the ratings need a lot more games to be played before they are worth anything.  Starting in January is the perfect fit, since we have minimal football games remaining.

 

 

 

November 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 7-11, 2019

Welcome to Thursday Comedy Relief.  It’s official now: this is the worst season in the 21st Century for PiRate Picks.  As we always tell you, these picks are free and maybe not worth what you pay for them.  In past years, we have had better access to information that has been unavailable to us, and so these picks are not going to be as reliable as when we were actually winning consistently.

We know that some of you reading this have discovered the little “secret” system in our regular weekly ratings that through super computer programming, you can come up with a half-dozen or so picks that are rewarding you with better than 62% wins.  It’s so secret, that we do not know the real particulars, and we unwisely recommended that you not tell us how you are doing it, because it might be too tempting to try it ourselves and then lose our mortgage payments (figuratively, since we burned our mortgage some time ago).

This is the absolute best week for college football to date.  This week’s games between Alabama and LSU, preceded by Minnesota and Penn State, and including Baylor-TCU, Iowa State-Oklahoma, and even including the best FCS game of the year and the celebration of the 150th anniversary of college football–undefeated Princeton versus undefeated Dartmouth at Yankee Stadium, we know that a lot of you love to add a little excitement when watching these top games.

Please, please, please, disregard our selections when considering whether or not you will wager on these games.  We are hitting 48% in our selections this year.  That’s total crappy status.  You cannot win at 48%, because even if you wager the exact opposite, at 52% you still lose.  None of your reading this feature are one of those folks with the supercomputer winning on 63+% of the wagers that our ratings somehow pop up 6-10 games per week, and our selections below are not part of that system.

 

This Week’s PiRate Picks

College Games

10-point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida St.

Boston College

11

Boston College

Ohio St.

Maryland

32

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Illinois

24.5

Illinois

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Vanderbilt

16.5

Florida

Ole Miss

N. Mexico St.

38.5

N. Mexico St.

Kentucky

Tennessee

11

Tennessee

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Georgia

Ole Miss

6.5

Georgia

Virginia

Georgia Tech

26

Georgia Tech

BYU

Liberty

27

Liberty

 

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas Tech

West Virginia

15.5

West Virginia

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

19.5

Louisville

Wake Forest

Virginia Tech

15.5

Virginia Tech

Penn St.

Minnesota

20

Minnesota

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Northwestern

Purdue

15.5

Purdue

Charlotte

UTEP

Pk

Charlotte

Baylor

TCU

10.5

TCU

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

1.5

Oklahoma

 

College Money Line Parlay –4 games at +268

 

Winner

Loser

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

Fresno St.

Utah St.

Notre Dame

Duke

Washington

Oregon St.

 

NFL Games

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Oakland

14.5

Oakland

New Orleans

Atlanta

Pk

New Orleans

Cincinnati

Baltimore

3

Baltimore

Carolina

Green Bay

8

Green Bay

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Chicago

Detroit

15.5

Detroit

Miami

Indianapolis

2.5

Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

10.5

N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay

Arizona

17.5

Arizona

 

Money Line Parlay –2 Games at +149

 

Winner

Loser

N.Y. Giants

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Carolina

 

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Coastal Carolina

14.5

Coastal Carolina

Michigan St.

Illinois

15

Illinois

Boise St.

Wyoming

13.5

Wyoming

Alabama

LSU

5.5

Alabama

Troy

Georgia Southern

3

Georgia Southern

Kentucky

Tennessee

1

Tennessee

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

5

Louisiana Tech

 

 

November 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:46 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

Kent St.

2.8

3.2

3.2

Western Michigan

Ball St.

10.9

10.5

10.8

 

 

Wednesday

November 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio U

Miami (O)

7.4

7.8

7.5

 

 

Thursday

November 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Coastal Carolina

Louisiana

-11.7

-10.7

-12.1

South Florida

Temple

-3.9

-1.8

-4.3

 

 

Friday

November 8

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon St.

Washington

-11.6

-10.2

-12.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

-18.6

-17.1

-18.3

 

 

Saturday

November 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

LSU

9.2

8.4

9.9

Arizona St.

USC

2.9

1.8

3.1

Arkansas

Western Kentucky

5.8

5.1

3.9

Army

Massachusetts

38.5

36.9

39.1

Boise St.

Wyoming

9.9

7.7

9.6

Boston College

Florida St.

2.6

2.4

3.0

BYU

Liberty

17.2

15.9

17.4

California

Washington St.

-7.1

-6.7

-7.3

Cincinnati

Connecticut

38.8

34.5

40.2

Colorado

Stanford

-5.5

-5.1

-5.6

Duke

Notre Dame

-7.7

-6.5

-7.3

Florida

Vanderbilt

28.5

26.9

29.3

Florida Atlantic

Florida Int’l.

9.4

9.5

10.9

Fresno St.

Utah St.

-1.0

0.9

-1.2

Georgia

Missouri

18.1

18.6

18.6

Hawaii

San Jose St.

12.0

11.5

11.1

Kentucky

Tennessee

2.2

1.0

2.0

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

6.4

7.1

6.2

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

10.7

10.4

11.8

Michigan St.

Illinois

14.0

12.1

13.9

Minnesota

Penn St.

-3.9

-3.1

-4.5

New Mexico

Air Force

-21.4

-20.3

-23.4

North Carolina St.

Clemson

-35.7

-33.8

-36.9

Northwestern

Purdue

1.5

0.5

0.7

Ohio St.

Maryland

42.4

42.6

44.9

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

11.8

10.3

11.2

Old Dominion

UTSA

0.7

-1.1

0.9

Ole Miss

New Mexico St.

33.0

30.0

32.9

San Diego St.

Nevada

14.7

14.9

15.2

SMU

East Carolina

26.3

24.6

27.0

South Carolina

Appalachian St.

8.1

7.4

8.1

Southern Miss.

UAB

7.0

4.0

6.5

TCU

Baylor

-4.1

-1.7

-3.2

Texas

Kansas St.

0.7

1.0

0.6

Texas St.

South Alabama

9.8

7.8

9.8

Troy

Georgia Southern

-2.9

-2.1

-3.5

UL-Monroe

Georgia St.

-4.1

-5.0

-4.3

UTEP

Charlotte

-15.1

-11.5

-14.9

Virginia

Georgia Tech

15.8

17.6

15.9

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

-1.5

-1.0

-1.5

West Virginia

Texas Tech

1.2

0.7

1.6

Wisconsin

Iowa

4.3

5.7

4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

2

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

3

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

5

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

6

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

9

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

10

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

11

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

12

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

15

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

16

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

17

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

18

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

21

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

22

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

23

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

24

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

25

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

26

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

27

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

28

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

29

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

32

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

33

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

34

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

35

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

36

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

37

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

38

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

39

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

40

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

41

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

42

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

43

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

44

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

45

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

46

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

47

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

48

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

49

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

50

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

51

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

52

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

53

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

54

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

55

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

56

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

57

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

58

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

59

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

60

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

61

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

62

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

63

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

66

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

67

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

68

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

69

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

70

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

71

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

72

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

73

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

74

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

75

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

76

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

77

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

80

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

81

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

82

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

83

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

85

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

86

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

87

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

88

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

89

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

90

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

91

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

92

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

93

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

97

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

98

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

99

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

101

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

102

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

103

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

104

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

105

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

106

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

107

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

108

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

109

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

110

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

111

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

112

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

113

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

114

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

115

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

116

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

117

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

118

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

121

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

122

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

126

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

128

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

129

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

130

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

4-1

7-2

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

4-0

7-1

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

0-5

3-6

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

4-1

8-1

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

4-1

8-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

3-2

6-3

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

0-5

2-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

6-0

9-0

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

3-1

7-1

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

3-4

4-5

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

3-3

5-4

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

3-2

5-3

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

1-3

4-4

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

4-2

6-3

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

3-3

5-4

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

3-3

4-5

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

3-2

5-3

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

1-4

2-6

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

3-2

5-3

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

5-0

8-0

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

3-2

6-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

3-3

6-3

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

2-3

4-4

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

1-4

3-5

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

5-0

8-0

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

2-3

4-4

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

4-2

7-2

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

1-5

3-6

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

3-2

6-2

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

5-0

8-0

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

2-4

3-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

2-4

4-5

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

3-3

5-4

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

0-6

1-7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.3

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

4-1

6-3

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

4-1

6-3

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

4-2

5-4

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

2-3

3-6

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

3-3

5-4

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

2-3

4-5

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

0-5

1-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

3-1

6-2

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

3-2

4-5

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

0-5

0-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

2-2

3-5

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

0-5

1-7

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

x

6-2

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

x

4-4

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

x

3-6

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

x

6-3

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

x

0-8

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

x

1-8

Indep. Averages

89.7

90.3

89.3

89.8

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

3-2

5-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

2-3

3-6

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

0-5

0-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

3-2

5-4

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-1

4-4

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

2-3

3-6

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

2-2

5-3

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

4-2

6-4

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

1-4

4-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

4-0

7-1

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

4-1

7-2

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

3-1

6-2

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

3-1

4-4

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

3-2

4-5

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

4-1

7-1

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

2-2

4-4

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

2-3

5-4

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

1-4

4-5

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

2-3

5-4

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

1-5

2-7

MWC Averages

93.3

94.8

93.3

93.8

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

6-0

8-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-4

5-4

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

1-4

4-4

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

3-3

4-4

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

3-2

4-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

5-1

8-1

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

4-2

5-4

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

4-2

4-5

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

2-4

4-5

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

1-5

3-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.0

107.5

107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

4-1

7-1

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

5-2

7-2

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

3-4

4-5

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

2-3

4-5

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

4-0

8-0

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

4-2

7-2

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

3-2

6-3

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

2-4

4-5

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

2-4

3-6

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

0-6

2-7

SEC Averages

114.4

112.6

114.2

113.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

4-1

7-1

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

3-1

5-3

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

3-1

6-2

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

1-3

3-5

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

1-3

4-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

3-1

6-2

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

3-2

5-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

2-2

3-5

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

1-3

2-6

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.7

2

Big Ten

111.3

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.3

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

93.8

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.8

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Alabama

4

Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Navy

5

SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Boise St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Hawaii

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Tulane

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

San Diego St.

Oregon St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

[Southern Miss.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Boston College

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Virginia

Michigan

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Kentucky

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Ball St.]

Pittsburgh

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Wake Forest

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Mississippi St.

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Washington St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[Stanford]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Appalachian St.

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Central Florida

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Wyoming

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

October 27, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:25 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

October 31

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Georgia Southern

16.9

16.3

17.3

Baylor

West Virginia

14.9

15.7

15.4

 

 

Friday

November 1

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Connecticut

Navy

-20.7

-19.8

-22.6

 

 

Saturday

November 2

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wake Forest

North Carolina St.

6.2

5.9

6.4

Massachusetts

Liberty

-24.7

-23.9

-26.1

Florida Int’l.

Old Dominion

17.4

16.9

17.3

Coastal Carolina

Troy

-2.6

-2.1

-2.3

Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh

-7.6

-9.1

-7.4

Purdue

Nebraska

3.5

2.6

3.7

Central Florida

Houston

19.9

18.3

18.7

Maryland

Michigan

-17.1

-16.4

-18.7

Indiana

Northwestern

7.1

7.1

8.0

Bowling Green

Akron

5.9

5.7

7.0

Illinois

Rutgers

19.3

20.6

19.8

East Carolina

Cincinnati

-24.6

-21.8

-25.2

Syracuse

Boston College

6.6

6.3

5.7

Eastern Michigan

Buffalo

-0.6

-1.1

-1.5

North Carolina

Virginia

1.8

1.6

2.8

Utah St.

BYU

4.4

3.6

5.2

Notre Dame

Virginia Tech

19.2

17.4

18.5

USC

Oregon

-5.7

-5.2

-6.6

UCLA

Colorado

7.9

7.8

7.6

Kansas

Kansas St.

-12.0

-10.9

-11.7

Louisiana

Texas St.

22.1

21.5

22.6

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

17.4

16.9

18.1

Central Michigan

Northern Illinois

-7.2

-5.5

-6.5

Rice

Marshall

-8.4

-6.7

-10.0

Colorado St.

UNLV

4.3

6.5

5.1

Memphis

SMU

2.0

2.1

1.3

Texas A&M

UTSA

44.8

40.6

43.9

Air Force

Army

13.5

14.9

15.5

Arizona

Oregon St.

4.3

3.1

4.6

Tennessee

UAB

22.4

20.0

20.2

Auburn

Ole Miss

21.3

20.4

21.5

Florida (n)

Georgia

-3.5

-4.5

-3.8

Oklahoma St.

TCU

5.7

3.5

4.7

North Texas

UTEP

24.4

19.5

23.9

Tulane

Tulsa

10.9

10.8

10.1

Arkansas

Mississippi St.

-11.2

-7.3

-15.8

Charlotte

Middle Tennessee

-5.2

-4.0

-5.2

Western Kentucky

Florida Atlantic

-1.5

-0.3

-0.8

UL-Monroe

Arkansas St.

-2.6

-2.1

-2.4

Florida St.

Miami (Fla.)

2.1

2.9

1.5

Nevada

New Mexico

8.7

7.4

8.8

Washington

Utah

-6.3

-5.7

-6.2

San Jose St.

Boise St.

-16.1

-13.8

-16.7

Hawaii

Fresno St.

5.4

6.0

4.3

 

 

FBS vs.

FCS

Clemson

Wofford

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

2

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

3

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

4

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

5

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

6

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

9

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

10

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

11

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

12

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

13

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

14

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

15

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

16

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

17

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

18

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

21

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

22

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

23

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

24

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

25

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

26

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

27

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

28

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

29

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

30

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

32

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

33

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

34

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

35

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

36

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

37

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

38

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

39

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

40

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

41

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

42

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

43

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

44

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

45

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

46

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

47

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

48

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

49

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

50

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

51

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

52

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

53

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

54

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

55

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

56

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

57

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

58

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

59

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

60

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

61

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

62

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

63

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

64

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

65

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

66

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

67

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

68

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

69

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

70

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

71

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

72

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

73

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

74

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

75

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

76

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

77

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

81

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

82

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

83

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

84

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

85

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

86

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

87

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

88

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

89

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

90

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

91

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

92

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

93

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

94

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

95

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

96

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

97

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

98

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

99

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

100

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

101

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

102

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

103

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

104

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

105

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

106

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

107

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

108

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

109

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

110

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

111

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

112

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

114

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

115

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

116

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

118

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

119

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

120

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

121

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

122

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

123

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

124

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

125

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

126

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

127

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

128

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

129

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

130

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

3-1

6-2

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

3-0

6-1

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

0-4

3-5

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

4-0

8-0

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

3-1

7-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

2-2

5-3

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

1-3

3-5

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

4-1

6-1

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

0-4

2-6

AAC Averages

96.8

97.5

97.5

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

6-0

8-0

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

3-3

4-4

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

2-1

6-1

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

0-4

3-5

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

2-3

4-4

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

1-2

4-3

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

3-2

5-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

3-2

5-3

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

3-2

4-4

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

2-3

4-4

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

2-2

5-3

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

3-2

5-3

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

4-0

7-0

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

2-2

5-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

2-3

5-3

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

2-2

4-3

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

1-3

3-4

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

1-4

3-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

5-0

8-0

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

3-2

6-2

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

2-3

4-4

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

3-2

6-2

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

1-4

3-5

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

0-5

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

3-2

6-2

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

5-0

8-0

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

0-5

1-6

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

1-4

2-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

2-3

4-4

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

2-3

4-4

Big Ten Averages

111.5

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

3-1

5-3

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

2-2

3-5

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

4-1

5-3

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

3-1

5-3

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

2-3

4-4

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

1-3

3-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

0-4

1-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

3-1

6-1

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

2-2

3-5

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

0-4

0-8

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

0-4

1-6

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

x

5-2

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

x

3-4

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

x

3-5

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

x

5-3

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

x

0-8

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

x

1-7

Indep. Averages

89.3

89.8

88.9

89.3

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

1-3

2-6

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

0-4

0-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

3-2

5-4

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

2-2

3-5

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

3-1

4-4

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

2-2

5-3

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

1-3

4-4

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

3-2

5-4

MAC Averages

87.2

87.0

87.5

87.2

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

3-0

6-1

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

4-1

6-2

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

3-1

4-3

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

3-1

6-2

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

2-2

3-5

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

4-1

7-1

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

2-2

5-3

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

1-2

3-4

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

1-3

4-4

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

1-3

4-4

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

1-4

2-6

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

5-0

7-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

1-4

4-4

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

3-3

4-4

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

4-1

7-1

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

4-1

5-3

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

3-2

3-5

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

2-3

4-4

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

1-4

3-5

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.9

107.4

107.1

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

3-1

6-1

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

5-1

7-1

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

2-4

3-5

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

2-3

3-5

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

4-0

8-0

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

3-2

6-2

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

3-2

5-3

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

1-4

3-5

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

0-5

2-6

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

4-0

7-0

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

2-1

4-3

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

3-1

6-2

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

1-2

3-4

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

1-2

2-5

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.5

91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.1

5

Atlantic Coast

105.1

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

94.2

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.3

10

Mid-American

87.2

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Western Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Miami (O)]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Eastern Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Louisiana

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Illiois

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Stanford

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia Tech

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Cincinnati

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

UAB

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Air Force]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Georgia

Penn St.

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Buffalo]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Duke]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

San Jose St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Notre Dame

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Indiana

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Florida

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Wisconsin

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Hawaii

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

LSU

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

October 20, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:43 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Thursday

October 24

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Houston

SMU

-8.1

-7.1

-7.5

Friday

October 25

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Colorado

USC

-11.1

-12.2

-12.3

Saturday

October 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Massachusetts

Connecticut

-7.6

-9.3

-7.6

Purdue

Illinois

11.4

10.5

11.8

Army

San Jose St.

13.6

11.4

13.3

Georgia St.

Troy

-2.2

-1.3

-1.6

Clemson

Boston College

33.5

30.9

33.7

Tulsa

Memphis

-12.8

-12.0

-12.5

Toledo

Eastern Michigan

3.5

3.7

3.8

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

9.6

11.6

3.9

Temple

Central Florida

-7.0

-7.0

-6.7

Western Michigan

Bowling Green

25.8

24.9

25.5

Nebraska

Indiana

-2.1

0.0

-2.1

Buffalo

Central Michigan

5.9

5.6

6.0

Northwestern

Iowa

-9.7

-8.8

-10.7

East Carolina

South Florida

-2.0

-1.2

-2.0

Florida St.

Syracuse

3.0

3.9

3.4

Rutgers

Liberty

-2.4

-4.2

-3.9

Rice

Southern Miss.

-11.8

-8.8

-12.5

Utah

California

20.2

19.4

20.2

Wyoming

Nevada

12.9

13.5

13.7

Air Force

Utah St.

0.0

2.5

-0.1

New Mexico

Hawaii

-12.2

-10.6

-12.4

Marshall

Western Kentucky

2.8

1.2

2.1

Stanford

Arizona

7.6

6.7

7.1

Oregon

Washington St.

10.1

11.2

11.2

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

19.2

16.3

19.4

Kentucky

Missouri

-5.0

-4.0

-6.2

North Carolina

Duke

1.7

2.2

3.0

Michigan St.

Penn St.

-5.4

-5.3

-5.8

Kent St.

Miami (O)

2.2

3.7

2.5

South Alabama

Appalachian St.

-32.1

-28.5

-32.7

Georgia Southern

New Mexico St.

18.2

15.2

16.8

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.3

10.6

11.2

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

0.2

-0.8

0.1

Old Dominion

Florida Atlantic

-13.0

-12.1

-13.9

Ball St.

Ohio U

1.1

1.7

0.8

Alabama

Arkansas

43.1

39.2

44.5

Tennessee

South Carolina

-3.3

-2.0

-4.7

Kansas St.

Oklahoma

-14.6

-14.0

-14.8

Minnesota

Maryland

12.7

13.2

13.3

Navy

Tulane

-1.3

0.6

-1.2

TCU

Texas

-4.5

-2.0

-4.4

Pittsburgh

Miami (Fla.)

4.8

5.4

4.4

Louisville

Virginia

-8.1

-8.7

-8.5

Northern Illinois

Akron

22.3

21.0

23.4

Kansas

Texas Tech

-7.7

-6.7

-6.8

Charlotte

North Texas

-5.1

-4.1

-5.6

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

18.7

18.0

19.8

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

8.8

8.0

8.7

LSU

Auburn

9.0

8.4

9.4

UTEP

Louisiana Tech

-23.1

-18.4

-22.6

Michigan

Notre Dame

1.5

1.4

1.6

UCLA

Arizona St.

-6.2

-5.7

-7.7

UNLV

San Diego St.

-11.6

-12.1

-12.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

137.4

136.4

138.4

137.4

2

Alabama

135.3

132.0

136.0

134.4

3

Clemson

132.6

130.0

133.4

132.0

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.5

128.7

5

Oklahoma

125.8

125.1

125.7

125.5

6

Georgia

126.2

124.3

126.1

125.5

7

Auburn

123.4

121.7

123.2

122.8

8

Penn St.

122.7

121.8

122.8

122.5

9

Wisconsin

121.7

121.4

121.7

121.6

10

Florida

122.7

119.8

122.3

121.6

11

Utah

121.6

120.4

122.2

121.4

12

Notre Dame

120.5

118.8

120.4

119.9

13

Oregon

119.1

119.2

120.5

119.6

14

Michigan

118.9

117.2

119.0

118.4

15

Iowa

117.7

115.8

117.5

117.0

16

Iowa St.

115.9

116.6

116.2

116.2

17

Texas A&M

116.7

115.0

115.3

115.7

18

Washington

114.0

113.7

115.0

114.2

19

Minnesota

114.2

113.9

113.7

113.9

20

Baylor

114.0

114.2

113.6

113.9

21

Michigan St.

114.3

113.5

114.0

113.9

22

Missouri

114.2

111.8

114.0

113.3

23

South Carolina

113.6

111.9

113.4

113.0

24

Texas

111.7

111.9

111.9

111.8

25

Washington St.

112.0

111.1

112.3

111.8

26

U S C

109.9

110.7

110.6

110.4

27

Central Florida

110.4

109.6

111.0

110.3

28

Mississippi St.

110.1

106.4

114.5

110.3

29

Virginia

108.8

109.0

108.9

108.9

30

Oklahoma St.

108.6

109.0

108.0

108.5

31

Arizona St.

108.4

107.7

109.2

108.5

32

Appalachian St.

108.8

107.8

108.6

108.4

33

Cincinnati

108.3

107.1

108.9

108.1

34

Kansas St.

108.3

108.1

107.9

108.1

35

Indiana

108.5

107.2

107.9

107.9

36

SMU

107.2

107.0

108.5

107.6

37

Memphis

106.8

106.8

107.5

107.0

38

Pittsburgh

106.6

106.4

106.9

106.6

39

Tennessee

107.3

106.9

105.7

106.6

40

Purdue

106.8

106.6

106.3

106.6

41

T C U

105.2

108.0

105.5

106.2

42

Boise St.

106.1

105.8

106.4

106.1

43

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

44

Texas Tech

105.8

106.0

105.0

105.6

45

Duke

105.6

104.9

105.3

105.3

46

Kentucky

106.2

104.8

104.8

105.3

47

Utah St.

104.9

104.0

105.9

104.9

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.8

104.1

105.5

104.8

49

Ole Miss

105.2

104.2

104.9

104.8

50

Northwestern

105.4

104.5

104.3

104.7

51

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

52

California

104.3

104.0

105.0

104.4

53

Syracuse

104.5

103.8

104.1

104.1

54

Maryland

104.5

103.7

103.3

103.8

55

Nebraska

103.4

104.2

102.8

103.5

56

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

57

Stanford

103.6

102.7

103.1

103.1

58

Air Force

101.9

103.4

102.8

102.7

59

Boston College

102.2

102.1

102.7

102.3

60

West Virginia

102.1

101.5

101.2

101.6

61

Virginia Tech

101.0

101.1

101.4

101.2

62

Temple

100.8

100.1

101.8

100.9

63

Louisiana

100.9

101.0

100.8

100.9

64

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.4

100.2

65

Fresno St.

99.0

99.8

99.5

99.4

66

BYU

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

67

North Carolina St.

99.3

99.0

99.4

99.2

68

Arizona

99.0

99.0

98.9

99.0

69

U C L A

99.2

99.0

98.5

98.9

70

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

71

Illinois

98.3

99.1

97.5

98.3

72

Wyoming

97.3

99.4

97.6

98.1

73

Houston

96.6

97.5

98.5

97.5

74

Oregon St.

97.3

98.3

96.8

97.5

75

Louisville

97.7

97.3

97.4

97.4

76

Western Michigan

97.5

96.4

97.2

97.0

77

Navy

95.5

98.1

96.2

96.6

78

Vanderbilt

97.0

95.7

95.7

96.1

79

Hawaii

95.7

97.0

94.9

95.9

80

Army

96.0

95.9

95.2

95.7

81

Colorado

95.9

95.5

95.4

95.6

82

Kansas

95.2

96.2

95.2

95.5

83

Arkansas

95.2

95.7

94.5

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.6

92.9

95.0

94.2

85

Troy

94.3

94.8

93.4

94.2

86

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.0

94.3

94.1

87

Southern Miss.

94.2

92.6

94.3

93.7

88

Georgia Southern

93.3

92.7

92.2

92.8

89

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

90

Florida Atlantic

91.9

91.4

92.8

92.0

91

Northern Illinois

92.2

91.1

92.3

91.9

92

Tulsa

91.0

91.8

92.0

91.6

93

Western Kentucky

90.6

91.8

92.4

91.6

94

Florida Int’l.

91.4

91.4

91.6

91.5

95

Ball St.

91.5

91.1

91.6

91.4

96

North Texas

91.2

90.5

91.7

91.1

97

U A B

89.9

91.8

90.8

90.9

98

Marshall

90.4

90.0

91.5

90.6

99

Georgia St.

89.6

91.0

89.3

90.0

100

Buffalo

89.3

89.8

90.4

89.8

101

Arkansas St.

89.7

89.8

89.2

89.6

102

Liberty

89.0

90.3

89.3

89.5

103

Middle Tennessee

89.1

88.1

89.2

88.8

104

South Florida

88.3

89.3

88.5

88.7

105

Toledo

88.3

88.6

89.0

88.6

106

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

107

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

87.0

88.7

88.1

108

Nevada

87.5

88.9

86.9

87.8

109

Eastern Michigan

87.2

87.4

87.7

87.5

110

Coastal Carolina

86.8

87.9

86.2

87.0

111

Central Michigan

85.9

86.7

86.9

86.5

112

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.5

85.6

86.0

113

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

114

U N L V

84.2

85.6

83.7

84.5

115

East Carolina

83.8

85.6

84.0

84.5

116

Colorado St.

82.8

86.6

83.1

84.2

117

Charlotte

83.6

83.9

83.6

83.7

118

Texas St.

83.4

84.2

83.0

83.5

119

Rutgers

84.1

83.6

82.9

83.5

120

New Mexico

80.0

82.8

79.0

80.6

121

Rice

79.9

81.3

79.2

80.2

122

New Mexico St.

78.2

80.6

78.5

79.1

123

Old Dominion

76.4

76.8

76.4

76.5

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.8

74.3

75.2

125

South Alabama

74.2

76.8

73.3

74.8

126

Bowling Green

74.1

74.0

74.2

74.1

127

Connecticut

71.9

75.4

70.8

72.7

128

Akron

72.5

72.6

71.4

72.1

129

U T E P

68.4

73.1

69.2

70.2

130

Massachusetts

62.3

64.1

61.2

62.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

110.4

109.6

111.0

110.3

2-1

5-2

Cincinnati

108.3

107.1

108.9

108.1

3-0

6-1

Temple

100.8

100.1

101.8

100.9

2-1

5-2

South Florida

88.3

89.3

88.5

88.7

1-2

3-4

East Carolina

83.8

85.6

84.0

84.5

0-3

3-4

Connecticut

71.9

75.4

70.8

72.7

0-4

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

107.2

107.0

108.5

107.6

3-0

7-0

Memphis

106.8

106.8

107.5

107.0

2-1

6-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.4

100.2

2-1

5-2

Houston

96.6

97.5

98.5

97.5

1-2

3-4

Navy

95.5

98.1

96.2

96.6

3-1

5-1

Tulsa

91.0

91.8

92.0

91.6

0-3

2-5

AAC Averages

96.7

97.4

97.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.6

130.0

133.4

132.0

5-0

7-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

2-3

3-4

Syracuse

104.5

103.8

104.1

104.1

0-3

3-4

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

2-1

6-1

Boston College

102.2

102.1

102.7

102.3

2-2

4-3

North Carolina St.

99.3

99.0

99.4

99.2

1-2

4-3

Louisville

97.7

97.3

97.4

97.4

2-2

4-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

108.8

109.0

108.9

108.9

3-1

5-2

Pittsburgh

106.6

106.4

106.9

106.6

2-1

5-2

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

2-2

3-4

Duke

105.6

104.9

105.3

105.3

2-2

4-3

Miami (Fla.)

104.8

104.1

105.5

104.8

1-3

3-4

Virginia Tech

101.0

101.1

101.4

101.2

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.6

92.9

95.0

94.2

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

125.8

125.1

125.7

125.5

4-0

7-0

Iowa St.

115.9

116.6

116.2

116.2

3-1

5-2

Baylor

114.0

114.2

113.6

113.9

4-0

7-0

Texas

111.7

111.9

111.9

111.8

3-1

5-2

Oklahoma St.

108.6

109.0

108.0

108.5

1-3

4-3

Kansas St.

108.3

108.1

107.9

108.1

1-2

4-2

T C U

105.2

108.0

105.5

106.2

1-2

3-3

Texas Tech

105.8

106.0

105.0

105.6

1-3

3-4

West Virginia

102.1

101.5

101.2

101.6

1-3

3-4

Kansas

95.2

96.2

95.2

95.5

0-4

2-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

137.4

136.4

138.4

137.4

4-0

7-0

Penn St.

122.7

121.8

122.8

122.5

4-0

7-0

Michigan

118.9

117.2

119.0

118.4

3-2

5-2

Michigan St.

114.3

113.5

114.0

113.9

2-2

4-3

Indiana

108.5

107.2

107.9

107.9

2-2

5-2

Maryland

104.5

103.7

103.3

103.8

1-3

3-4

Rutgers

84.1

83.6

82.9

83.5

0-5

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

121.7

121.4

121.7

121.6

3-1

6-1

Iowa

117.7

115.8

117.5

117.0

2-2

5-2

Minnesota

114.2

113.9

113.7

113.9

4-0

7-0

Purdue

106.8

106.6

106.3

106.6

1-3

2-5

Northwestern

105.4

104.5

104.3

104.7

0-4

1-5

Nebraska

103.4

104.2

102.8

103.5

2-2

4-3

Illinois

98.3

99.1

97.5

98.3

1-3

3-4

Big Ten Averages

111.3

110.6

110.9

110.9

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

91.9

91.4

92.8

92.0

2-1

4-3

Western Kentucky

90.6

91.8

92.4

91.6

4-0

5-2

Florida Int’l.

91.4

91.4

91.6

91.5

2-2

4-3

Marshall

90.4

90.0

91.5

90.6

2-1

4-3

Middle Tennessee

89.1

88.1

89.2

88.8

1-2

2-5

Charlotte

83.6

83.9

83.6

83.7

0-3

2-5

Old Dominion

76.4

76.8

76.4

76.5

0-3

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.0

94.3

94.1

3-0

6-1

Southern Miss.

94.2

92.6

94.3

93.7

2-1

4-3

North Texas

91.2

90.5

91.7

91.1

2-1

3-4

U A B

89.9

91.8

90.8

90.9

3-1

6-1

Rice

79.9

81.3

79.2

80.2

0-3

0-7

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.8

74.3

75.2

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.4

73.1

69.2

70.2

0-3

1-5

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.5

118.8

120.4

119.9

x

5-1

BYU

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

x

3-4

Army

96.0

95.9

95.2

95.7

x

3-4

Liberty

89.0

90.3

89.3

89.5

x

5-2

New Mexico St.

78.2

80.6

78.5

79.1

x

0-7

Massachusetts

62.3

64.1

61.2

62.5

x

1-6

Indep. Averages

90.9

91.5

90.6

91.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

2-1

3-4

Buffalo

89.3

89.8

90.4

89.8

1-2

3-4

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

2-1

3-4

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

87.0

88.7

88.1

2-1

3-4

Bowling Green

74.1

74.0

74.2

74.1

1-2

2-5

Akron

72.5

72.6

71.4

72.1

0-3

0-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.5

96.4

97.2

97.0

2-2

4-4

Northern Illinois

92.2

91.1

92.3

91.9

1-2

2-5

Ball St.

91.5

91.1

91.6

91.4

3-0

4-3

Toledo

88.3

88.6

89.0

88.6

1-2

4-3

Eastern Michigan

87.2

87.4

87.7

87.5

1-2

4-3

Central Michigan

85.9

86.7

86.9

86.5

3-1

5-3

MAC Averages

87.3

87.1

87.6

87.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.1

105.8

106.4

106.1

3-0

6-1

Utah St.

104.9

104.0

105.9

104.9

3-0

4-2

Air Force

101.9

103.4

102.8

102.7

3-1

5-2

Wyoming

97.3

99.4

97.6

98.1

2-1

5-2

Colorado St.

82.8

86.6

83.1

84.2

1-2

2-5

New Mexico

80.0

82.8

79.0

80.6

0-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.0

99.8

99.5

99.4

1-1

3-3

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

3-1

6-1

Hawaii

95.7

97.0

94.9

95.9

1-2

4-3

Nevada

87.5

88.9

86.9

87.8

1-2

4-3

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

1-3

3-4

U N L V

84.2

85.6

83.7

84.5

1-3

2-5

MWC Averages

93.6

95.1

93.6

94.1

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

119.1

119.2

120.5

119.6

4-0

6-1

Washington

114.0

113.7

115.0

114.2

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.0

111.1

112.3

111.8

1-3

4-3

California

104.3

104.0

105.0

104.4

1-3

4-3

Stanford

103.6

102.7

103.1

103.1

2-3

3-4

Oregon St.

97.3

98.3

96.8

97.5

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.6

120.4

122.2

121.4

3-1

6-1

U S C

109.9

110.7

110.6

110.4

3-1

4-3

Arizona St.

108.4

107.7

109.2

108.5

2-2

5-2

Arizona

99.0

99.0

98.9

99.0

2-2

4-3

U C L A

99.2

99.0

98.5

98.9

2-2

2-5

Colorado

95.9

95.5

95.4

95.6

1-3

3-4

Pac-12 Averages

107.0

106.8

107.3

107.0

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.2

124.3

126.1

125.5

3-1

6-1

Florida

122.7

119.8

122.3

121.6

5-1

7-1

Missouri

114.2

111.8

114.0

113.3

2-1

5-2

South Carolina

113.6

111.9

113.4

113.0

2-3

3-4

Tennessee

107.3

106.9

105.7

106.6

1-3

2-5

Kentucky

106.2

104.8

104.8

105.3

1-4

3-4

Vanderbilt

97.0

95.7

95.7

96.1

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.0

136.0

134.4

4-0

7-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.5

128.7

3-0

7-0

Auburn

123.4

121.7

123.2

122.8

3-1

6-1

Texas A&M

116.7

115.0

115.3

115.7

2-2

4-3

Mississippi St.

110.1

106.4

114.5

110.3

1-3

3-4

Ole Miss

105.2

104.2

104.9

104.8

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

95.2

95.7

94.5

95.2

0-4

2-5

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.8

107.8

108.6

108.4

3-0

6-0

Troy

94.3

94.8

93.4

94.2

1-1

3-3

Georgia Southern

93.3

92.7

92.2

92.8

2-1

3-3

Georgia St.

89.6

91.0

89.3

90.0

2-1

5-2

Coastal Carolina

86.8

87.9

86.2

87.0

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.9

101.0

100.8

100.9

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

89.7

89.8

89.2

89.6

1-2

3-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.5

85.6

86.0

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

83.4

84.2

83.0

83.5

1-1

2-4

South Alabama

74.2

76.8

73.3

74.8

0-3

1-6

SBC Averages

90.7

91.3

90.2

90.7

 

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

110.9

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.0

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.1

7

Mountain West

94.1

8

Independents

91.0

9

Sun Belt

90.7

10

Mid-American

87.3

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).

AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up.  SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl.  Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.

ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so.  There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids.  Boston College, Louisville,  and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now.  The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.

Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries?  If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs.  If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs.  If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs.  Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now.  Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.

Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier.  The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound.  Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division.  Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect.  If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962.  With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.

Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture.  Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag.  The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand.  UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.

Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here.  The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention.  If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid.  Keep an eye on Liberty.  If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season.  Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins.  Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.

MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest.  Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division.  The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions.  The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition.  Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion.  In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown.  Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.

Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl.  The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them.  Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team.  With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title.  This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in.  Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.

Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely.  The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm.  Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs.  The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.

SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden.  If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn.  Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title.  With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids.  USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility.  Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6.  In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss.  Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8.  The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.

Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion?  Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Central Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Toledo]

Cure

AAC

SBC

East Carolina

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Ball St.

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[UAB]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Duke

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Purdue

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

Arizona

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Pittsburgh

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Penn St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Hawaii]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Wyoming]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

USC

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Georgia

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Michigan St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

LSU

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Troy]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Nebraska

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Western Ky.]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

 

 

 

October 13, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Wednesday

October 16

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Troy

South Alabama

22.4

19.7

21.9

Thursday

October 17

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas St.

Louisiana

-6.5

-6.3

-6.5

Stanford

UCLA

12.6

12.2

13.5

Friday

October 18

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida Atlantic

Marshall

6.7

6.8

6.9

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

2.8

2.4

2.5

Northwestern

Ohio St.

-24.8

-24.4

-26.8

Fresno St.

UNLV

15.2

14.2

15.8

Saturday

October 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Virginia

Duke

2.0

2.7

2.0

Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Tech

15.9

16.8

16.4

Louisville

Clemson

-31.4

-28.6

-32.2

Georgia St.

Army

-6.7

-5.2

-6.6

Akron

Buffalo

-13.5

-13.7

-15.5

Maryland

Indiana

-0.6

0.3

-0.8

Connecticut

Houston

-24.5

-21.6

-28.3

Wake Forest

Florida St.

1.5

0.8

1.7

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

10.7

8.9

10.5

Bowling Green

Central Michigan

-7.3

-8.2

-8.0

Central Florida

East Carolina

31.5

28.7

32.5

Cincinnati

Tulsa

21.7

19.8

21.7

Boston College

North Carolina St.

2.1

2.2

2.2

Iowa

Purdue

14.5

12.8

15.1

Ohio

Kent St.

7.2

6.2

7.1

Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan

-10.3

-9.1

-10.0

Texas

Kansas

22.5

21.6

23.0

Illinois

Wisconsin

-25.1

-23.9

-26.2

Utah St.

Nevada

19.8

16.8

21.4

BYU

Boise St.

-6.1

-6.0

-7.0

Wyoming

New Mexico

21.2

20.4

22.7

Utah

Arizona St.

16.0

15.3

15.6

Ball St.

Toledo

0.2

-0.5

-0.3

Miami (O)

Northern Illinois

-1.8

-2.6

-2.1

California

Oregon St.

13.6

12.2

15.3

Washington

Oregon

-1.4

-2.0

-1.7

USC

Arizona

10.3

10.9

10.7

Washington St.

Colorado

16.1

15.4

16.5

South Carolina

Florida

-5.4

-4.1

-4.9

Georgia

Kentucky

23.6

23.4

25.6

Kansas St.

TCU

5.8

2.5

5.2

Mississippi St.

LSU

-14.3

-15.7

-9.1

Alabama

Tennessee

32.0

29.1

34.3

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

-0.9

0.6

-1.1

UAB

Old Dominion

12.9

14.3

13.5

Oklahoma

West Virginia

24.3

23.9

24.6

Oklahoma St.

Baylor

0.9

1.3

1.1

Arkansas

Auburn

-20.7

-18.1

-20.7

Ole Miss

Texas A&M

-8.8

-7.7

-7.4

Memphis

Tulane

5.3

4.2

5.0

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

-2.3

-2.2

-3.1

Rutgers

Minnesota

-25.0

-25.1

-25.3

Texas Tech

Iowa St.

-6.7

-7.0

-7.7

Navy

South Florida

5.2

6.8

5.3

Appalachian St.

Louisiana-Monroe

20.2

18.1

19.8

Vanderbilt

Missouri

-18.8

-17.6

-20.5

San Jose St.

San Diego St.

-10.4

-10.1

-10.8

Western Kentucky

Charlotte

8.0

8.5

9.5

North Texas

Middle Tennessee

4.8

5.3

5.7

UTSA

Rice

-3.9

-2.9

-3.5

SMU

Temple

5.6

6.3

5.6

Florida Int’l.

UTEP

27.8

22.9

27.5

Penn St.

Michigan

6.4

7.2

6.5

Hawaii

Air Force

4.0

4.0

2.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note:  We receive a lot of emails at our sister site asking us how X can be rated ahead of Y when Y beat X in September.  These are not rankings; they are ratings.  They are predictive in nature and not mean to rank the teams based on what they have done earlier in the season.  These ratings try to forecast the next week of games only.  

 

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

135.3

134.2

136.2

135.2

2

Alabama

135.8

132.5

136.5

134.9

3

Clemson

132.2

129.3

132.9

131.5

4

L S U

128.4

126.1

128.0

127.5

5

Georgia

126.7

124.9

126.9

126.2

6

Wisconsin

124.2

123.9

124.4

124.2

7

Oklahoma

124.4

123.6

124.1

124.0

8

Penn St.

122.5

121.6

122.6

122.3

9

Utah

121.5

120.2

122.0

121.2

10

Florida

122.4

119.4

121.8

121.2

11

Auburn

121.5

119.6

121.1

120.7

12

Notre Dame

120.2

118.5

120.1

119.6

13

Oregon

118.7

118.8

120.0

119.2

14

Michigan

119.1

117.4

119.2

118.6

15

Iowa

118.0

116.1

118.0

117.3

16

Iowa St.

115.7

116.3

115.9

116.0

17

Texas A&M

116.8

115.0

115.3

115.7

18

Missouri

116.4

114.0

116.5

115.6

19

Washington

114.2

113.9

115.3

114.5

20

Michigan St.

114.0

113.2

113.7

113.6

21

Texas

113.3

113.5

113.7

113.5

22

South Carolina

113.9

112.3

113.9

113.4

23

Minnesota

112.4

112.0

111.7

112.0

24

Baylor

112.1

112.2

111.5

111.9

25

Central Florida

111.5

110.6

112.4

111.5

26

Mississipppi St.

111.1

107.4

116.0

111.5

27

Washington St.

110.5

109.5

110.6

110.2

28

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.6

110.0

29

Cincinnati

109.0

107.8

109.8

108.9

30

Arizona St.

108.5

107.9

109.4

108.6

31

U S C

108.1

108.8

108.6

108.5

32

Kansas St.

108.2

107.8

107.8

107.9

33

Boise St.

107.5

107.3

108.1

107.6

34

Indiana

108.3

106.8

107.5

107.5

35

Duke

107.7

107.1

107.6

107.5

36

Northwestern

107.5

106.7

106.5

106.9

37

Virginia

106.7

106.8

106.6

106.7

38

Miami (Fla.)

106.4

105.7

107.2

106.4

39

California

106.2

105.9

107.2

106.4

40

T C U

105.3

108.3

105.6

106.4

41

North Carolina

106.0

106.0

107.2

106.4

42

Purdue

106.5

106.3

105.8

106.2

43

Tennessee

106.8

106.4

105.2

106.1

44

Stanford

106.4

105.6

106.2

106.1

45

Texas Tech

106.0

106.3

105.3

105.9

46

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.5

105.9

105.7

47

SMU

105.1

104.9

106.2

105.4

48

Appalachian St.

105.9

104.7

105.5

105.4

49

Syracuse

105.6

105.0

105.4

105.3

50

Kentucky

106.0

104.5

104.3

104.9

51

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.9

104.7

52

Memphis

104.6

104.4

105.1

104.7

53

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

54

Utah St.

104.6

103.4

105.6

104.5

55

Maryland

104.7