The Pi-Rate Ratings

June 10, 2018

The PiRates Are Hard At Work For Football Season

Hello Mates.

This is the head PiRate telling you that we have set sail and are on our way out to the green sea, otherwise known as the Football Field.

We have already begun to update our college football ratings for the 2018 season.  We have a unique way of updating our ratings from the end of the previous season to the beginning of the new season.  We have point values assigned to every starting and backup position on offense and defense plus an overall rating for the components of special teams.

For instance, as it should be obvious, the Quarterback is the most important position in college football.  So, we take special care in determining how many points better or worse each of the 130 teams is in week one compared to their final game of the year before by adding or subtracting points based on the QB.  We look at certain analytics data, just like baseball teams look at advanced statistics.  We actually have our own version of WAR for college football.  Instead of Batting, Fielding, and Pitching WAR, we have offense, defense, and special teams WAR, only instead of putting the final numbers into wins above average, we use points per game above average.  In the PiRate Ratings, a rating of 100.0 is average.  If a quarterback is worth 6.3 points better than an average QB, then before we look at the reserves, a team that is totally average at every other position would begin the season at 106.3 for this particular piece of the ratings’ puzzle.  If a quarterback has been determined to be 3.8 points below average, it would reduce the average team from 100.0 to 96.2.

On offense, the receiving corps is the next most important part of the equation, while the offensive line and running back corps are equal in importance as the last two parts.

Defensively, we look at all three units as they play against the run and the pass.  Stopping the pass is more important these days than stopping the run.  Interceptions, Passes Broken Up, Sacks, and Hurries are all parts of the Pass defense stats we look at.  We also have special ratings for nose guards that have the responsibility of taking up space and keeping blockers away from the linebackers, as these heroes of the trenches rarely show up in box scores, until one of the behemoths gets injured, and his replacement prevents the star will linebacker from making his usual 14 tackles with 2 for loss.

We have an intangible part of this equation as well.  Say a team has a change in coaches.  The old coach was a spread option or flexbone disciple, while the new coach is an air raid disciple.  It’s going to take 2-4 years to fully implement the changes, as that five foot nine inch triple option QB is not going to work as a dropback passer.

Another example in an intangible is the team that had 9 key injuries the year before, and 8 of the 9 return at 100% after missing parts or all of the year before.

In 2018, there will be a case where a potential all-star junior quarterback will transfer from one Power 5 school to another and be immediately eligible.  This will have major effects on his new team, much more than if he were the top incoming freshman in the nation.  This QB has already proven himself in a power conference, while the top incoming freshman only proved himself in Georgia high school action.  There is a difference as deep as the Grand Canyon in comparing the two, even though the incoming freshman might eventually become the next John Elway.  The seasoned starter showed what he could do when he passed for close to 350 yards against Auburn, while the freshman threw for 220 yards against Troup County High School.

This is just one piece of a 5-prong process.  We rate each team against every other team using 5 different processes.  Once we are done, we use three different algorithms to come up with a PiRate, Mean, and Bias rating for each of the 130 teams.  The PiRate and Bias differ by very little, so they will frequently be highly correlated, while the Mean rating is somewhat different than the other two, because it takes the equally-weighted average of the five ratings, while the other two apply heavier weights to some of the five components.  Because they share the exact same weighting of the prong we showed you above, these two tend to stay correlated.

We know we have a lot of advanced mathematicians reading our blog, and we are grateful for your patronage.  We try to make this more analytically dominated than you might get from other sports rating sites and even break down the fourth wall from time to time to show you what we do.

If you are not a math fan and just love football, then fear not.  We still hope to have computer ratings that are as accurate as possible, and we still will make fools of ourselves weekly to issue free picks that you can then take and gift to Las Vegas if you are foolish enough to not realize that these picks are worth exactly what you pay for them.

We have 10 weeks to go.  With a lot of late night work, we hope to have the ratings ready for you in 9 weeks max.

Thanks,

The Captain

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March 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 10 , 2018

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads For Conference Tournament Games

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Vermont UMBC 12.4
Cincinnati Memphis 17.5
Wichita St. Houston 0.1
Rhode Island St. Joseph’s 6.7
St. Bonaventure Davidson -0.9
Virginia North Carolina 1.0
Kansas West Virginia 0.1
Villanova Providence 13.7
Montana Eastern Washington 4.2
UC-Irvine Cal. St. Fullerton 2.0
Western Kentucky Marshall 5.1
Harvard Cornell 6.6
Penn Yale 6.9
Buffalo Toledo 3.9
Hampton UNC-Central 3.8
New Mexico San Diego St. -4.9
Arizona USC 1.9
Kentucky Alabama 3.0
Tennessee Arkansas 3.0
SE Louisiana Stephen F. Austin -5.6
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Texas Southern -5.2
UL-Lafayette Texas-Arlington 5.8
Georgia St. Georgia Southern 3.1
New Mexico St. Grand Canyon 4.9

Games in Blue are Semifinal Contests

Games in Red are Championship Games

Today’s Schedules With Approximate Tip Times and TV

All Times are Eastern Standard (Remember Daylight Savings Time Begins Sunday at 2 AM)

America East Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Home Visitors TV
11:00 AM #1 Vermont #2 UMBC ESPN2

Vermont is the home team in this tournament played on campus sites.  Because the rounds are spaced out, both teams had ample time to prepare for this game.  The Catamounts won handily in the two regularly-scheduled games.

UMBC’s only hope is to try to contain Vermont’s dominating power forward Payton Henson and be able to hit a lot of contested shots.  In the two previous games, Vermont held the Retrievers to well under 40% from the field.

Henson, the former Tulane bench warmer who became a star when he transferred to Vermont, controlled the boards in both games and led Vermont in scoring both times.

 

American Athletic Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #1 Cincinnati #5 Memphis CBS
3:30 PM #2 Wichita St. #3 Houston CBS
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
3:00 PM Cinti or Memphis Wichita or Houston CBS

Tubby Smith lives to see another day as head coach of Memphis.  Two nail-biting wins into the tournament, Memphis finds itself taking on the top seed for a chance to play for an automatic bid and steal a bid for the AAC.

Memphis failed to tally 50 points in either meeting with the Bearcats, and neither game was close.  If Cincinnati does not come out flat, and it is hard to imagine a team that hustles like the Bearcats coming out flat, there is little chance the Tigers will pull the upset.

The other semifinal game should be very interesting, and there is a possibility that this game could come down to the 40th, or maybe the 45th minute before a winner is assured.  Houston’s defense has been improving all year long, while Wichita State’s defense is still somewhat of a work in progress.  The Cougars have not been this good in 25 years, and they look poised to make another step forward, maybe even to the Sweet 16.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #1 Rhode Island #4 St. Joseph’s CBSSN
3:30 PM #2 St. Bonaventure #3 Davidson CBSSN
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM Rhode Island or St. Joe’s St. Bona. or Davidson CBS

The two lower seeded teams move into serious bid-stealer territory.  Of the two, we believe Davidson has a rather good chance of pulling off back-to-back upsets of the top two seeds and steal a bid from a Louisville, Oklahoma, or Arizona St.

When Davidson ventured up to Olean, NY, to face St.  Bonaventure less than two weeks ago, it produced one of the most exciting games of the NCAA season.  The Bonnies eventually won in triple overtime 117-113, and the stat sheet was a masterpiece.  Three St. Bonaventure players topped 30 points, combining for 14 made three-pointers, while Davidson’s Peyton Aldridge had 45 points, and Kellian Grady had 39.  Today’s game may be decided by the three-point shot.  Both teams are strong defensively inside the paint.

Rhode Island is the class of this league, but the Rams are beatable, and St. Joe’s knows how to beat them.  How about a 30-point pasting by the Hawks over the Rams in Kingstown?  If they could win at URI, then St. Joe’s should surely be able to win on a neutral court in the nation’s capital.  Something tells us that Rhode Island will play with multiple chips on multiple shoulders today and get revenge.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:30 PM #1 Virginia #6 North Carolina ESPN

There seldom is need to give a lot of PR to the ACC Tournament.  The ACC Tournament is like football’s Rose Bowl.  It is the grandaddy of conference tournaments (aplogies to the Southern Conference Tournament, but the ACC is a bit more prestigious).

This should be a fantastic game tonight.  North Carolina didn’t fare all that well against the top-seeded and nationally top-ranked team this year.  The Tar Heels thought they had the Cavaliers Pack-line defense figured out in the first half, and it looked like this game would go down to the buzzer.  Then, a couple of fine-tuning adjustments totally stopped North Carolina for about 10 minutes, while Virginia’s offense slowly extended the lead out to double-digits.  The Tar Heels missed all of their shots in the second half of the second half.  UVa won by a dozen points, holding UNC under 50.

The mandatory statement that North Carolina is a much better team since that loss is required to be inserted here.  However, equal time forces us to state additionally that Virginia’s offense has improved almost as much in that time frame.

In other words, this game has the potential to be rivoting entertainment for you.  We expect the score to be around 60-60 with three minutes to play.  Then, who knows what might happen.  Past ACC Tournament history could help us predict something well worth watching.  We are excited about this game just writing these words!

 

Big 12 Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Kansas #3 West Virginia ESPN

Do we even need to hype this game?  In our opinion, the rivalry between KU and WVU is approaching that of the Yankees and Red Sox.  The contrast in styles between two A-1 coaches, and the talent level on the floor tonight will make this a game full of movement and spurts.  Kansas handled the Mountaineers press rather easily in both games, and WVU did not get many transition points.  In a half-court game, the Jayhawks are about 10 points better than the Mountaineers, so the question is, can Coach Bob Huggins find a new wrinkle that will force Kansas to commit an extra five turnovers tonight?  If so, then this game is a toss-up.  If not, then the Jayhawks cut down the nets yet again.

 

Big East Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #2 Villanova #5 Providence Fox

Usually, there is a tendency for the average generic sports fan to develop a temporary rooting interest for one generic team against another generic team–a game in which he or she has no ties to either team.  When a fan in Florida watches Oregon play USC, he or she might temporarily become a fan of one of the schools.  For instance, a typical guy in Orlando might cheer for USC solely because Trojan coach Andy Enfield married a former supermodel.

If you are one of the generic superfans, like all of us here on the PiRate ship, you are in a quandary tonight with these two teams.  Why is that?  It is because Villanova coach Jay Wright and Providence coach Ed Cooley are two of the best gentlemen in the game.  They are more than coaches to their players; they are second fathers, the type that dote over their children.

As for the game tonight, Villanova better not feel any overconfidence, because Providence has put all of its pieces together and has seen the finished puzzle of success.  The Friars are possibly still sitting on their best game of the season, and for that reason, we believe that at the least, Providence will cover in this game, and quite possibly win outright.  However, and this is a big however, the Friars have had to go to overtime the last two nights to get to this point.  Their legs may be a tad fatigued in the second half, while Villanova has won by comfortable margins and has rested their starters.  So, for that reason, the rest of the PiRates say the Wildcats are going to come out and be a bit too much for the underdog Friars.

What does this tell you?  Lay off this game if you like to invest in college basketball and just watch it for fun.

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:00 PM #1 Montana #3 Eastern Washington ESPNU

This is one of those tricky games.  Montana would appear to be the favorite, but in our opinion, the Grizzlies will have to play at the top of their talent level tonight to have a chance to win this game.  EWU lost a game at Idaho in early February that they should have won.  Since then, they have played like the king of the league, reeling off eight victories in a row by an average margin of more than 10 points per game.  The Eagles roster is a United Nations of basketball with players from Australia, Serbia, Lithuania, The Ukraine, and the Dominican Republic on the roster.

Montana has the best guard duo in the league, and in tournament play, strong guards lead to championships as long as there is adequate support in the front-court players, just enough to force defenses to stay honest.  Montana’s hopes for the NCAA Tournament rest on the shoulders of Ahmaad Rorie and Michael Oguine.  They were a combined 8 of 21 in the regular season loss to EWU.  Expect a 70-75 possession game tonight, and we believe Eastern Washington will send Montana to an automatic NIT berth.

 

Big West Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
11:59 PM #3 UC-Irvine #4 Cal St. Fullerton ESPN2

What did we tell you about this league?  The top four seeds were basically dead even in talent, and we believed that any of the four could advance and win the dancing invitation.  So, what happened late last night?  The two lower seeds advanced to the championship game.

If you live on the East Coast, you better get the coffee pot brewing after supper tonight if you want to see the last automatic bid of the day be handed out.  Tonight’s game is a great contrast in playing styles.  UC-Irvine wins by playing tough defense and controlling the boards, while Fullerton has a great passing offense that leads to taking open shots and not rushing the offense.

The two teams split the season series with both winning on the other team’s home floor.  This looks like a game where one team will jump for joy in the final few seconds of a closely contested game.  You may have to stay awake until after 2 AM on the East Coast if you want to know who got the bid.

 

Conference USA Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:30 PM #3 Western Kentucky #4 Marshall CBSSN

If you don’t have a dog left in the fight today, and you just want to watch a potentially incredible game in the evening, you might want to tune into this one.  All we have to say about Marshall is mention the coach’s name.  He is Dan D’Antoni, the brother of Houston Rocket coach Mike D’Antoni.  Houston is 51-14 in the NBA using the same type of playing style that Marshall uses.  The D’Antoni brothers are the Billy Beane’s of basketball.  They are high on analytics, and they believe that the offense has the best chance of scoring quickly before the defense can force a bad shot as the clock winds down.  It’s all about three-pointers and high percentage two-point shots, and the belief is that if your guards get the ball up the floor quickly, an open opportunity will develop in one of those two locations.

Of course, this works a lot better when one of your guards is James Harden.  Marshall has two guards that play at the collegiate level like Harden does in the NBA.  Jon Elmore and C.J. Burks can fill it up, and they both average in excess of 20 points per game.  Keeping defenses honest, the Thundering Herd have Ajdin Penava inside, but the offense itself creates close open shots for a host of average players, and any average player at this level can hit from three feet away.

What about Western Kentucky?  The Hilltoppers are notorious for playing their best ball in March.  This goes back for decades and decades through a who’ who of great coaches and players.  WKU is much like their big brother up in Lexington.  They go into tournament championship games with the prestige of the New York Yankees.  They expect to win, but they do not consider it a foregone conclusion, and the red uniform makes them put out an effort like every player is Enos Slaughter.  Both the good news and the not-so-good news about WKU is that they are a very balanced team with any of the five starters capable of scoring 20-25 points in a game.  However, sometimes, none of the five will take over and will the team to a victory.

Western swept the season series with Marshall, but we do not particularly love the Hilltoppers chance to get a three-peat in today’s championship game.  Marshall will come out loose and ready to play 75-possession basketball.  Western better be ready and not only come expecting to play 65-possession basketball.

 

Ivy League Tournament
Philadelphia (Ivy Madness)
Top 4 Teams Qualify
Semifinals EST Championship Game EDT
       
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:30 PM #1 Harvard #4 Cornell ESPNU
3:00 PM #2 Penn #3 Yale ESPN2
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM  Harvard or Cornell Penn or Yale  ESPN2

The final conference tournament begins play today.  The Ivy League only sends its top four to the Palestra, so in theory the winner should usually be able to avoid a trip to Dayton.  If Penn or Harvard win Ivy Madness, they should be 16-seeds but avoid Dayton.  If Cornell wins, they are almost assuredly headed to Dayton, and if Yale wins, it would be a 50-50 guess.

Penn has the advantage of playing on their home floor, and the Quakers went 7-0 at home in Ivy League play.  Their two conference losses came at Harvard and at Yale, so the championship game should provide a bit of excitement.  Of course, Penn has to get past a Cornell team that gave the Quakers two close games in the regular season.

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Buffalo #2 Toledo ESPN2

The top two seeds found their way to the championship game, and we are returning to becoming confident in the Bulls.  Buffalo has the talent that if they can play with confidence and not become deer in the headlights, they could sneak past an opening round favorite in the NCAA Tournament.  We do not believe Toledo can do the same, but in the conference tournament, the Rockets could easily blast their way to victory.

These two teams played only once in the regular season, and it seems like it was a year ago.  Buffalo won on their home floor in an offensive shootout 104-94.  The difference in the game was the Buffalo ball-hawking defense.  The Bulls gave up a few easy baskets when their gambling defense did not force a turnover, but they forced Toledo into numerous turnovers that led to easy Buffalo scores.

This won’ be an 81-possession game like the first time, and if Toledo can take care of the basketball, they have the backcourt advantage with a couple of tall, sharp-shooting perimeter players in Tre’Shaun Fletcher and Jaelen Sanford.

If Buffalo is to hold serve and claim both the regular season and conference tournament titles, we believe that forward Nick Perkins needs to have a 20-point, 8-rebound game, and the Bulls need to force the tempo and not let Toledo slow the game down.

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #1 Hampton #6 UNC-Central ESPN2

Two teams with recent success in the MEAC will face off for the automatic bid.  Hampton has won the tournament title three of the last seven seasons under Coach Edward Joyner, while UNC-Central has claimed two of the last four under Coach LeVelle Moton.

Once again, this game presents an excellent study in different styles of play.  Hampton is more of a finesse team with better shooters, while UNC-Central has the superior power game and can control the action inside.  Finesse won out in the lone regular season game between the two teams, as Hampton shot lights out in a blowout win.

 

Mountain West Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #3 New Mexico #5 San Diego St. CBS

The two defensive behemoths easily advanced to the championship game, giving the Mountain West a second bid that came at the expense of a Louisville, Notre Dame, or Arizona St.

Either of these two teams will become a fierce, pesty opponent to a favored team in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexico faced a major transition this year.  They raided in-state rival New Mexico State to hire Coach Paul Weir away from las Cruces.  Weir brought his tenacious, full-court press defense to Albuquerque, and the Lobos had growing pains for the first half of the season.

Since a rough start at 8-11, the Lobos improved by going 11-3 since mid-January.  The press began to pay dividends as the players obtained the needed live experience to see it work.  A much-improved up-tempo offense took off about the same time, as the Lobos gained confidence and went from a passive to a very aggressive team.

San Diego State basketball is all about outstanding pressure man-to-man defense and an inside power offense.  It’s much like the same offense that Aztec coach Steve Fisher used with the Fabulous Five at Michigan in the 1990’s.  Like New Mexico, SDSU had a slow start to the season, but they closed in a rush with eight consecutive wins by an average score of 78-64.  What they did to regular season champ Nevada last night should put a scare into any potential four or five seed team from a power conference.  The Aztecs looked like the UCLA team of 1970 in the semifinal trouncing of Nevada.  They controlled the boards like they had Sydney Wicks, Steve Patterson, and Curtis Rowe pounding the glass, as the former top team in the league trailed by 30 points in the first half!

Don’t expect New Mexico to be intimidated.  This game is going to be rough and tumble for 40 minutes, and if we had to pick one game where the referees may have to step in and separate the combatants in this war, this would be the game.

 

Pacific 12 Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
10:00 PM #1 Arizona #2 USC FS1

Usually, the Pac-12 Tournament Championship Game is the key college basketball game on the West Coast, but it won’t even be the best game in the host city.  It won’t even be the second best game in that city.  Las Vegas hosts both the Mountain West and Western Athletic championships tonight, and unfortunately for the “League of Champions,” this will be the third best game in sin city tonight.

The outcome of the game will matter very little, as both teams have now secured spots in the field of 68, and neither will move much by winning or losing.  We do not particularly feel like either the Wildcats or Trojans will make much of a dent in the NCAA Tournament, as the Pac-12 needs a transfusion, with an infusion of better talent.  Sorry Pac-12 fans, but your league is suffering somewhat of a malaise.

 

Southeastern Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #4 Kentucky #9 Alabama ESPN
3:30 PM #2 Tennessee #6 Arkansas ESPN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM Kentucky or Alabama Tennessee or Arkansas ESPN

Once Missouri fell, we called this tournament the Kentucky Invitational, as that is what we knew it would look like once the Blue Mist fans bought up all the Mizzou fans tickets.

Arkansas bested Florida, and that made Kentucky’s path to the title all that easier.  Today the Wildcats basically need to put an extra half-body on Colin Sexton and then control the boards like they should to advance to the title game tomorrow for the umpteenth time in their history.

The other game should be much more interesting, as Arkansas and Tennessee match up evenly well.  Arkansas won the regular season game in Fayetteville 95-93 in overtime in a game before New Year’s Day.  The Razorbacks then went 9-8 the rest of the regular season, while the Vols went on to share the conference title with Auburn.

This tournament is screaming for a game between bitter rivals in blue and orange.  Tennessee has always been the principle rival for Kentucky in all sports, while Tennessee considers Kentucky its chief basketball rival.

 

Southland Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
10:00 PM #1 SE Louisiana #3 Stephen F. Austin ESPN2

We hope you read our preview of this conference tournament the last two days.  If not, we referred to #3 Stephen F. Austin as the champion thoroughbred horse that stumbled and lost the 2017 race but still figured to be the great champion of the past, while Southeast Louisiana and Nicholls State were the two currently sexy horses vying for the finish line.

The crowd at the race track watches the two new hot contenders sharing a four furlong lead over the champion horse, and all in attendance feverishly focus their eyes on the champion waiting for him to make that patented closing move to win the race from three-wide.

Last night, Stephen F. Austin began to move, and when they did, they looked like Whirlaway at the Kentucky Derby.  The Lumberjacks just ran past Nicholls State, putting the game away handily in the first half.  Now, they have Southeast Louisiana in their sights, and the Lions better be ready to roar in the Championship Game, because SFA doesn’t look to be losing any speed at the finish line.

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM #1 Arkansas-Pine Bluff #3 Texas Southern ESPN2

Our heart says Texas Southern tonight, because our leader has a past friendly relationship with TSU coach Mike Davis, but our brain says that Arkansas-Pine Bluff will become the first team ever to begin a season 0-14 and make the NCAA Tournament.

These two teams could play 100 times, and we would pick UAPB to win about 55-60 of those games.  The Golden Lions won two very close games over the Tigers in the regular season, and they seem to have their number.

The winner of this game is already put in the First Four in Dayton in permanent marker.  There is no need to pencil the winner this year.  Either a 19-loss or 20-loss team will earn an automatic bid.

 

Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:30 PM #1 UL-Lafayette #4 UT-Arlington ESPN3
3:00 PM #2 Georgia St. #3 Georgia Southern ESPN3
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM ULL or UTA Ga St. or Ga. Sou. ESPN2

Louisiana-Lafayette may be the overwhelming favorite to win the tournament with a coach (Bob Marlin) that has taken the Ragin’ Cajuns and formerly Sam Houston to the NCAA Tournament, but Georgia State also has the tournament experience coach on their sideline, as Ron Hunter has taken GSU and IUPUI to the Dance in the past.

What does this mean for UT-Arlington and Georgia Southern?    Ten years ago, Scott Cross guided UTA to a conference tournament title, while Georgia Southern coach Mark Byington has been slowly upgrading the program at Hanner Fieldhouse.

Don’t expect the two favorite to easily coast to the finals tomorrow, but the chances are better than 50-50 that both teams win tonight.

 

Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
10:00 PM #1 New Mexico St. #3 Grand Canyon ESPNU

There’s nothing more to say about this tournament than what we previously stated.  This just might be the best Championship Game of the entire lot this weekend.  New Mexico State has been tournament savvy since November, when the Aggies beat Davidson and Miami (Fla.) in Hawaii and almost knocked off USC for the championship.  After NMSU completed the regular season sweep of GCU, their record stood at 22-3, and the Aggies were on the verge of cracking the top 25.  But, playing an overly physical team like GCU can take its toll, and NMSU suffered by losing consecutive road games against the other top two teams of the four in this league.  The team recovered and since then has won five games in a row by an average of 16.8 points per game.

Grand Canyon has made great strides moving into Division 1.  The only for-profit university playing Division 1 basketball, the Antelopes have a student base from all over the country, as they have both a real campus and an online presence.  Of course, John Doe, a GCU online-only student in Augusta, Maine, is not eligible to play on the team, but his tuition might help the school fund the athletic program a little bit.  This could be the start of something big if the Antelopes make the Dance.  Imagine the University of Phoenix or Devry University trying this out.   And, what happens when Penn State or Alabama discover that they must begin to have an online university in addition to a real campus?  The NCAA might have to eventually establish some ground rules, when Dunkin’ Bill Duncan and Henry Hoopshot decide to attend classes at home but play on the basketball team, because they both live just 10 miles away.  Who will really be doing the homework???

 

 

 

January 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Final Polls

Congratulations go to Coach Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the National Championship in a thrilling overtime victory over the Georgia Bulldogs.  Alabama wins the top spot in all three ratings, plus the retro rankings.  Here’s how the final numbers crunched.

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Ohio St.
4 Wisconsin
5 Central Florida
6 Penn St.
7 Clemson
8 Oklahoma
9 Notre Dame
10 Auburn
11 TCU
12 Michigan St.
13 Miami (Fla)
14 USC
15 Washington
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Northwestern
18 North Carolina St.
19 Iowa
20 Stanford
21 Virginia Tech
22 Mississippi St.
23 LSU
24 Memphis
25 Boise St.
26 Michigan
27 Iowa St.
28 Wake Forest
29 South Florida
30 Louisville
31 South Carolina
32 Washington St.
33 Toledo
34 Florida Atlantic
35 Boston College
36 Florida St.
37 Texas
38 Purdue
39 Kansas St.
40 San Diego St.
41 Fresno St.
42 Troy
43 Army
44 Navy
45 Texas A&M
46 Duke
47 Georgia Tech
48 Oregon
49 Utah
50 West Virginia
51 Missouri
52 Arizona St.
53 Houston
54 Texas Tech
55 Kentucky
56 Arizona
57 UCLA
58 Appalachian St.
59 Ohio
60 Indiana
61 Ole Miss
62 Pittsburgh
63 California
64 Northern Illinois
65 Temple
66 SMU
67 Minnesota
68 Marshall
69 North Texas
70 Virginia
71 Wyoming
72 Florida
73 Syracuse
74 Maryland
75 Central Michigan
76 Colorado
77 Colorado St.
78 Nebraska
79 Western Michigan
80 Louisiana Tech
81 Tulane
82 Vanderbilt
83 Arkansas St.
84 Southern Miss.
85 Florida Int’l.
86 Arkansas
87 Akron
88 Buffalo
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 Tennessee
92 North Carolina
93 UAB
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Rutgers
96 Air Force
97 New Mexico St.
98 UTSA
99 Miami (O)
100 Cincinnati
101 Tulsa
102 UNLV
103 Western Kentucky
104 Baylor
105 BYU
106 East Carolina
107 Nevada
108 Georgia St.
109 Massachusetts
110 Connecticut
111 Illinois
112 Old Dominion
113 UL-Monroe
114 Bowling Green
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 South Alabama
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Coastal Carolina
122 Georgia Southern
123 Kansas
124 Kent St.
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 136.9 133.5 135.8 135.4
2 Ohio St. 132.3 130.2 132.6 131.7
3 Georgia 130.8 130.0 131.4 130.7
4 Clemson 131.3 128.6 130.9 130.3
5 Penn St. 129.4 128.1 129.8 129.1
6 Oklahoma 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
7 Auburn 127.0 125.2 127.2 126.5
8 Washington 126.2 124.2 126.1 125.5
9 Wisconsin 126.4 123.9 125.5 125.3
10 Oklahoma St. 121.2 120.4 121.6 121.1
11 Stanford 120.6 119.0 119.9 119.8
12 U S C 120.1 119.2 119.8 119.7
13 L S U 118.5 116.3 118.8 117.9
14 Virginia Tech 118.1 117.6 117.9 117.8
15 Miami 118.6 117.4 117.5 117.8
16 T C U 118.0 116.5 118.2 117.6
17 N. Carolina St. 117.1 116.2 117.0 116.8
18 Central Florida 116.0 116.9 117.2 116.7
19 Louisville 116.8 116.0 116.5 116.4
20 Notre Dame 116.6 115.4 116.8 116.2
21 Florida St. 116.9 116.0 115.7 116.2
22 Northwestern 115.4 114.2 115.5 115.0
23 Iowa 114.3 114.5 113.6 114.2
24 Michigan 114.2 114.0 113.4 113.9
25 Mississippi St. 113.5 113.3 113.3 113.4
26 Memphis 113.2 112.5 114.0 113.2
27 Iowa State 112.8 112.8 113.9 113.2
28 Texas 112.9 112.9 113.5 113.1
29 Kansas St. 112.9 112.7 113.0 112.9
30 Boston College 112.6 112.3 112.6 112.5
31 Michigan St. 111.0 111.6 112.1 111.6
32 Wake Forest 112.1 110.4 112.2 111.6
33 Duke 111.1 110.0 110.4 110.5
34 Utah 109.9 109.9 110.1 110.0
35 Oregon 110.5 108.6 109.9 109.7
36 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
37 Washington St. 109.8 107.7 109.3 108.9
38 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
39 S. Carolina 109.1 108.3 108.2 108.5
40 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
41 Missouri 108.5 107.1 107.8 107.8
42 Boise St. 107.5 106.1 107.6 107.1
43 Texas A&M 107.9 106.0 107.0 107.0
44 West Virginia 106.7 107.4 106.7 106.9
45 Arizona St. 106.4 105.3 106.0 105.9
46 Kentucky 106.4 105.7 105.0 105.7
47 Purdue 105.6 105.4 106.1 105.7
48 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
49 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
50 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
51 Arizona 106.0 104.9 104.9 105.3
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Florida Atlantic 103.4 104.9 105.3 104.5
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 Navy 103.5 104.1 103.7 103.8
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 U C L A 103.0 102.4 102.3 102.6
58 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
59 San Diego St. 101.5 101.5 102.5 101.8
60 Houston 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Army 100.9 100.8 101.3 101.0
63 Appalachian St. 101.2 100.0 101.4 100.9
64 Toledo 100.1 100.1 102.1 100.8
65 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Troy 99.7 99.8 99.9 99.8
68 Fresno St. 99.9 98.6 100.8 99.8
69 Colo. State 99.8 99.1 99.7 99.5
70 Virginia 99.6 98.6 99.9 99.4
71 Ohio U 98.3 99.6 99.3 99.1
72 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
73 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
74 Temple 98.2 98.5 98.8 98.5
75 Wyoming 97.8 96.9 97.2 97.3
76 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
77 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.0 95.8 95.2
79 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
80 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
81 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
82 Arkansas St. 93.8 95.0 94.7 94.5
83 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
84 SMU 94.0 94.5 94.3 94.3
85 Utah St. 94.0 93.3 93.7 93.7
86 Marshall 92.4 93.5 93.8 93.3
87 Central Michigan 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.1
88 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
89 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
90 Louisiana Tech 90.8 92.4 91.6 91.6
91 Middle Tennessee 90.4 91.4 91.6 91.1
92 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 Massachusetts 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
98 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
99 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
100 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.0 88.4 88.0
101 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
102 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.4 87.8 87.9
103 N. Texas 86.4 87.8 86.9 87.0
104 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
105 N. Mexico St. 86.8 85.7 86.9 86.5
106 W. Kentucky 85.7 86.2 86.1 86.0
107 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
108 Akron 84.2 86.1 84.9 85.1
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 82.7 82.7 82.5 82.7
113 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
114 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
115 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
116 UL-Monroe 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
117 S. Alabama 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
118 Idaho 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
119 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
120 UAB 79.6 79.9 81.3 80.3
121 UL-Lafayette 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
122 Georgia Southern 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
123 Coastal Carolina 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
124 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
           
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.7 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 B12 109.8 109.9 110.0 109.9
4 P-12 109.4 108.1 108.6 108.7
5 BTEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 IND 99.1 98.6 99.2 99.0
7 AAC 97.9 98.3 98.2 98.1
8 MWC 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.2 89.1 89.0 88.8
10 CUSA 84.4 85.8 85.2 85.1
11 SBC 84.3 85.0 84.3 84.5

 

 

 

January 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football National Championship Game Preview

2017-18 College Football National Championship Game

#3 Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) vs. #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

Date: Monday, January 8, 2018

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: ESPN

Announcers: Chris Fowler–Play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit–Color commentary, Maria Taylor–Sideline, Tom Rinaldi–Sideline

Radio: ESPN

Announcers: Sean McDonough–Play-by-play, Todd Blackledge–Color commentary, Holly Rowe–Sideline, Ian Fitzsimmons–Sideline

Officiating: Big Ten Staff

Las Vegas Line (as of Tuesday, January 2, 2018, 4:00 PM EST

Spread: Alabama by 4 1/2

Money line: Alabama -200,  Georgia +170

Total: 45 1/2

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 6.5

Mean: Alabama by 3.7

Bias: Alabama by 4.8

Reasonable Expected Score: Alabama 31  Georgia 26

100 Computer Simulations

Wins: Alabama 68  Georgia 32

Average Score: Alabama 33  Georgia 27

Outlier ALA: Alabama 38  Georgia 9

Outlier GA: Georgia 27  Alabama 16 

 

 

December 11, 2017

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Bowls & Playoffs Preview

2017-18 Bowls & Playoffs Schedule

All times are EST

Saturday, December 16

New Orleans Bowl: 1:00 PM on ESPN

North Texas (9-4) vs. Troy (10-2)

 

Cure Bowl: 2:30 PM on CBSSN

Western Kentucky (6-6) vs. Georgia St. (6-5)

 

Las Vegas Bowl: 3:30 PM on ABC

Boise St. (10-3) vs. Oregon (7-5)

 

New Mexico Bowl: 4:30 PM on ESPN

Marshall (7-5) vs. Colorado St. (7-5)

 

Camellia Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Middle Tennessee (6-6) vs. Arkansas St. (7-4)

 

Tuesday, December 19

Boca Raton Bowl: 7:00 PM on ESPN

Akron (7-6) vs. Florida Atlantic (10-3)

 

Wednesday, December 20

Frisco Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

SMU (7-5) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-6)

 

Thursday, December 21

Gasparilla Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Temple (6-6) vs. Florida Int’l. (8-4)

 

Friday, December 22

Bahamas Bowl: 12:30 PM on ESPN

UAB (8-4) vs. Ohio U. (8-4)

 

Idaho Potato Bowl: 4:00 PM on ESPN

Central Michigan (8-4) vs. Wyoming (7-5)

 

Saturday, December 23

Birmingham Bowl: 12:00 PM on ESPN

South Florida (9-2) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)

 

Armed Forces Bowl: 3:30 PM on ESPN

Army (9-3) vs. San Diego St. (10-2)

 

Dollar General Bowl: 7:00 PM on ESPN

Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian St. (8-4)

 

Sunday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl: 8:30 PM on ESPN

Houston (7-4) vs. Fresno St. (9-4)

 

Tuesday, December 26

Heart of Dallas Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

West Virginia (7-5) vs. Utah (6-6)

 

Quick Lane Bowl: 5:00 PM on ESPN

Duke (6-6) vs. Northern Illinois (8-4)

 

Cactus Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. UCLA (6-6)

 

Wednesday, December 27

Independence Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

Florida St. (6-6) vs. Southern Miss. (8-4)

 

Pinstripe Bowl: 5:15 PM on ESPN

Boston College (7-5) vs. Iowa (7-5)

 

Foster Farms: 8:30 PM on Fox

Purdue (6-6) vs. Arizona (7-5)

 

Texas Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

Texas (6-6) vs. Missouri (7-5)

 

Thursday, December 28

Military Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

Navy (6-6) vs. Virginia (6-6)

 

Camping World Bowl: 5:15 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma St. (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (9-3)

 

Holiday Bowl: 9:00 PM on FS1

Michigan St. (9-3) vs. Washington St. (9-3)

 

Alamo Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

TCU (10-3) vs. Stanford (9-4)

 

Friday, December 29

Belk Bowl: 1:00 PM on ESPN

Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)

 

Sun Bowl: 3:00 PM on CBS

North Carolina St. (8-4) vs. Arizona St. (7-5)

 

Music City Bowl: 4:30 PM on ESPN

Kentucky (7-5) vs. Northwestern (9-3)

 

Arizona Bowl: 5:30 PM on CBSSN

Utah St. (6-6) vs. New Mexico St. (6-6)

 

Cotton Bowl: 8:30 PM on ESPN

Ohio St. (11-2) vs. USC (11-2)

 

Saturday, December 30

Taxslayer Bowl: 12:00 PM on ESPN

Louisville (8-4) vs. Mississippi St. (8-4)

 

Liberty Bowl: 12:30 PM on ABC

Iowa St. (7-5) vs. Memphis (10-2)

 

Fiesta Bowl: 4:00 PM on ESPN

Penn St. (10-2) vs. Washington (10-2)

 

Orange Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Wisconsin (12-1) vs. Miami (Fla.) (10-2)

 

Monday, January 1

Outback Bowl: 12:00 OM on ESPN2

Michigan (8-4) vs. South Carolina (8-4)

 

Peach Bowl: 12:30 PM on ESPN

Auburn (10-3) vs. Central Florida (12-0)

 

Citrus Bowl: 1:00 PM on ABC

Notre Dame (9-3) vs. LSU (9-3)

 

New Year’s Day Playoffs

Rose Bowl: 5:00 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Georgia (12-1)

 

Sugar Bowl: 8:45 PM on ESPN

Clemson (12-1) vs. Alabama (11-1)

 

Monday, January 8

National Championship Game: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner

 

PiRate Rating Spreads for Bowls/Playoffs

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
North Texas Troy -12.5 -11.2 -11.8
Georgia St. Western Kentucky -6.6 -6.9 -7.3
Boise St. Oregon -6.6 -5.7 -5.9
Marshall Colorado St. -10.4 -8.0 -8.7
Middle Tennessee Arkansas St. -5.9 -5.7 -5.7
Florida Atlantic Akron 15.2 14.8 16.4
SMU Louisiana Tech 11.7 10.5 11.1
Florida Int’l. Temple -5.8 -6.1 -5.2
UAB Ohio U -14.7 -16.3 -13.6
Wyoming Central Michigan 0.4 -0.8 -1.4
South Florida Texas Tech 3.8 3.2 4.5
San Diego St. Army 2.4 2.3 3.2
Appalachian St. Toledo -5.9 -7.1 -7.7
Fresno St. Houston -3.5 -4.5 -2.7
West Virginia Utah 0.2 0.7 0.2
Northern Illinois Duke -14.7 -13.8 -12.8
UCLA Kansas St. -7.7 -8.5 -8.4
Southern Miss. Florida St. -29.4 -27.4 -27.3
Boston College Iowa -0.3 -1.0 0.5
Arizona Purdue 0.8 -0.3 -0.8
Texas Missouri 4.2 6.3 5.5
Navy Virginia -1.1 0.5 -1.2
Oklahoma St. Virginia Tech 1.9 1.8 2.6
TCU Stanford -1.3 -1.2 -0.6
Washington St. Michigan St. 5.8 3.1 4.2
Wake Forest Texas A&M 6.4 6.6 7.4
Arizona St. North Carolina St. -8.3 -8.7 -8.4
Kentucky Northwestern -8.4 -7.9 -9.9
New Mexico St. Utah St. -9.1 -9.6 -8.8
Ohio St. USC 11.6 10.4 12.2
Mississippi St. Louisville -5.6 -4.5 -5.8
Memphis Iowa St. 4.0 3.1 3.9
Washington Penn St. -2.4 -3.5 -2.7
Miami (Fla.) Wisconsin -3.4 -2.1 -3.6
South Carolina Michigan -8.3 -8.6 -8.6
Auburn Central Florida 15.8 12.5 14.8
Notre Dame LSU -3.1 -1.8 -3.6
Oklahoma Georgia -2.4 -3.2 -1.8
Alabama Clemson 2.8 2.4 1.7

 

 

December 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Final Regular Season Polls

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:08 am

The PiRate Poll has been updated after the Conference Championship Games, and our ratings show something different from what the Playoff Committee will decide later today.

Our Retrodictive Ratings are our closest approximation to merit based rewards.  It only factors who you beat, where you beat them, when you beat them, and in minimal fashion how you beat them.  Here are our final Retro Ratings prior to the bowls and playoffs.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Clemson
2 Georgia
3 Oklahoma
4 Alabama
5 Ohio St.
6 Wisconsin
7 Central Florida
8 Penn St.
9 Auburn
10 Washington
11 Miami (Fla)
12 USC
13 Notre Dame
14 TCU
15 Virginia Tech
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Stanford
18 Michigan St.
19 Michigan
20 Washington St.
21 Northwestern
22 Memphis
23 LSU
24 North Carolina St.
25 Iowa
26 Louisville
27 Mississippi St.
28 Boston College
29 South Florida
30 Iowa St.
31 Boise St.
32 Toledo
33 Wake Forest
34 South Carolina
35 San Diego St.
36 Oregon
37 Florida Atlantic
38 Florida St.
39 Arizona St.
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 West Virginia
43 Purdue
44 Georgia Tech
45 Kansas St.
46 Missouri
47 Arizona
48 Fresno St.
49 UCLA
50 Navy
51 Troy
52 Houston
53 Texas Tech
54 Utah
55 Army
56 Kentucky
57 Duke
58 SMU
59 Northern Illinois
60 Indiana
61 Virginia
62 North Texas
63 California
64 Ole Miss
65 Ohio
66 Pittsburgh
67 Central Michigan
68 Minnesota
69 Florida
70 Syracuse
71 Maryland
72 Wyoming
73 Marshall
74 Appalachian St.
75 Colorado
76 Colorado St.
77 Temple
78 Nebraska
79 Western Michigan
80 Tulane
81 Arkansas St.
82 Florida Int’l.
83 Akron
84 Southern Miss.
85 Vanderbilt
86 Buffalo
87 Arkansas
88 UAB
89 Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 North Carolina
92 Eastern Michigan
93 Rutgers
94 Air Force
95 Louisiana Tech
96 Middle Tennessee
97 UTSA
98 Miami (O)
99 Cincinnati
100 Western Kentucky
101 Tulsa
102 UNLV
103 Baylor
104 New Mexico St.
105 BYU
106 East Carolina
107 Nevada
108 Georgia St.
109 Massachusetts
110 Connecticut
111 Illinois
112 Old Dominion
113 UL-Monroe
114 Bowling Green
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 South Alabama
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Coastal Carolina
122 Georgia Southern
123 Kansas
124 Kent St.
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

While our ratings show that Alabama should be chosen ahead of Ohio State, we believe there will be too much pressure to take two SEC teams and leave out the Big Ten and Pac-12, especially when the Rose Bowl is one of the semifinal games.

Our ratings reflect a 34-point loss by Ohio State at a mediocre Iowa team combined with a home loss to Oklahoma, which slightly offsets their wins over Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Alabama’s best wins were not as impressive as the Buckeyes, but as a whole, they did beat more decent teams, and the SEC is several points better than the Big Ten.  Plus, their one loss was at Auburn, a team that had just blown Georgia off the Jordan-Hare Field.  Truth be told, if the Committee deferred to the smart guys in Nevada, Alabama would be the number one seed in the playoffs.

Our Predictive ratings back us up on this point.  However, the predictive ratings show that Ohio State is one of the four best teams at this point of the season.  We are scratching our heads on why Oklahoma is so low in the predictive ratings, because they have been improving week by week.  Unfortunately, they may have fallen between the cracks in how we update.  We have a mechanical update based on statistics and the point in which an easy win was already guaranteed, and maybe OU kept missing out on extra points due to a few yards here or there.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
2 Clemson 132.8 129.9 132.6 131.8
3 Ohio St. 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
4 Georgia 130.6 129.9 131.2 130.6
5 Auburn 129.4 127.3 129.6 128.8
6 Penn St. 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
7 Oklahoma 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
8 Washington 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
9 Wisconsin 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
10 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
11 U S C 120.4 119.5 120.1 120.0
12 Stanford 120.7 119.1 120.1 120.0
13 Miami 119.3 118.1 118.2 118.5
14 L S U 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
15 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
16 Louisville 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
17 T C U 117.9 116.4 118.0 117.4
18 Florida St. 116.9 115.9 115.4 116.1
19 Notre Dame 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
20 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
21 Michigan 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
22 Northwestern 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
23 Central Florida 113.6 114.8 114.8 114.4
24 Iowa 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
25 Memphis 113.5 112.7 114.4 113.5
26 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
27 Boston College 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
28 Washington St. 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
29 Mississippi St. 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
30 Texas 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
31 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
32 Wake Forest 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
33 Oregon 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
34 Duke 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
35 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Missouri 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
38 West Virginia 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
39 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
40 Utah 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
41 Michigan St. 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
42 Arizona St. 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
43 S. Carolina 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
44 Texas A&M 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
45 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
46 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
47 Purdue 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
48 Kentucky 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
49 Arizona 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
50 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
51 Boise St. 105.7 104.5 105.8 105.3
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Toledo 103.6 103.6 105.6 104.3
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 U C L A 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 Virginia 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
58 San Diego St. 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
59 Houston 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Florida Atlantic 99.9 101.4 101.8 101.0
63 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
64 Navy 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
65 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Army 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
68 Troy 99.3 99.4 99.3 99.3
69 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
70 Fresno St. 98.9 97.6 99.8 98.8
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 SMU 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 96.5 97.9 97.4
74 Ohio U 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
75 Temple 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
76 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
77 Northern Illinois 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
79 Arkansas St. 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
80 Central Michigan 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
81 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
82 Wyoming 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
83 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
84 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
85 Utah St. 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
86 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
87 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
88 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
89 Marshall 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
90 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
91 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
92 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
93 Florida Int’l. 89.5 89.7 90.5 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 Massachusetts 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
98 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
99 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
100 Akron 87.7 89.6 88.4 88.6
101 Louisiana Tech 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
103 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
104 W. Kentucky 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
105 N. Texas 86.8 88.2 87.5 87.5
106 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
107 N. Mexico St. 85.8 84.7 85.9 85.5
108 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
113 UAB 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
114 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
115 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
116 UL-Monroe 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
117 S. Alabama 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
118 Idaho 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
119 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
120 Georgia St. 80.9 81.0 80.6 80.9
121 UL-Lafayette 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
122 Georgia Southern 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
123 Coastal Carolina 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
124 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 8-0 12-0 113.6 114.8 114.8 114.4
South Florida 6-2 9-2 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 4-4 6-6 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
Connecticut 2-6 3-9 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
Cincinnati 2-6 4-8 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
East Carolina 2-6 3-9 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 7-1 10-2 113.5 112.7 114.4 113.5
Houston 5-3 7-4 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
Navy 4-4 6-5 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
SMU 4-4 7-5 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
Tulane 3-5 5-7 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
Tulsa 1-7 2-10 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 12-1 132.8 129.9 132.6 131.8
Louisville 4-4 8-4 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
Florida St. 3-5 6-6 116.9 115.9 115.4 116.1
N. Carolina St. 6-2 8-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Boston College 4-4 7-5 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
Wake Forest 4-4 7-5 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-1 10-2 119.3 118.1 118.2 118.5
Virginia Tech 5-3 9-3 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
Duke 3-5 6-6 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-6 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
Virginia 3-5 6-6 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
N. Carolina 1-7 3-9 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.1 112.0 112.6 112.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 12-1 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
Oklahoma St. 6-3 9-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 7-2 10-3 117.9 116.4 118.0 117.4
Iowa State 5-4 7-5 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Texas 5-4 6-6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
Kansas St. 5-4 7-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-4 7-5 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
Baylor 1-8 1-11 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-9 1-11 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 8-1 11-2 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
Penn St. 7-2 10-2 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
Michigan 5-4 8-4 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
Michigan St. 7-2 9-3 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
Indiana 2-7 5-7 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
Maryland 2-7 4-8 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
Rutgers 3-6 4-8 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 9-0 12-1 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
Northwestern 7-2 9-3 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
Iowa 4-5 7-5 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
Purdue 4-5 6-6 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
Minnesota 2-7 5-7 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
Nebraska 3-6 4-8 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
Illinois 0-9 2-10 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 8-0 10-3 99.9 101.4 101.8 101.0
Marshall 4-4 7-5 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
Middle Tennessee 4-4 6-6 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
Florida Int’l. 5-3 8-4 89.5 89.7 90.5 89.9
W. Kentucky 4-4 6-6 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
Charlotte 1-7 1-11 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-5 6-5 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
Southern Miss. 6-2 8-4 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
N. Texas 7-1 9-4 86.8 88.2 87.5 87.5
UAB 6-2 8-4 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
Rice 1-7 1-11 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
U T E P 0-8 0-12 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
             
CUSA Averages     84.2 85.6 85.0 84.9
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-3 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
Army   8-3 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
Massachusetts   4-8 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
BYU   4-9 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     98.7 98.3 98.7 98.6
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
Miami (O) 4-4 5-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Buffalo 4-4 6-6 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
Akron 6-2 7-6 87.7 89.6 88.4 88.6
Bowling Green 2-6 2-10 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
Kent St. 1-7 2-10 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 7-1 11-2 103.6 103.6 105.6 104.3
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
Western Michigan 4-4 6-6 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
Central Michigan 6-2 8-4 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
Eastern Michigan 3-5 5-7 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
Ball St. 0-8 2-10 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-1 10-3 105.7 104.5 105.8 105.3
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-3 7-5 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
Utah St. 4-4 6-6 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
Air Force 4-4 5-7 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
New Mexico 1-7 3-9 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-2 10-2 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
Fresno St. 7-1 9-4 98.9 97.6 99.8 98.8
Nevada 3-5 3-9 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
U N L V 4-4 5-7 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
Hawaii 1-8 3-9 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
San Jose St. 1-7 2-11 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
             
MWC Averages     92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 7-2 10-2 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
Stanford 7-2 9-4 120.7 119.1 120.1 120.0
Washington St. 6-3 9-3 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
Oregon 4-5 7-5 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
California 2-7 5-7 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 11-2 120.4 119.5 120.1 120.0
Utah 3-6 6-6 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
Arizona St. 6-3 7-5 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
Arizona 5-4 7-5 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
U C L A 4-5 6-6 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
Colorado 2-7 5-7 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 12-1 130.6 129.9 131.2 130.6
Missouri 4-4 7-5 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
S. Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
Kentucky 4-4 7-5 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
Florida 3-5 4-7 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
Vanderbilt 1-7 5-7 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
Tennessee 0-8 4-8 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
Auburn 7-1 10-3 129.4 127.3 129.6 128.8
L S U 6-2 9-3 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
Arkansas 1-7 4-8 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
             
SEC Averages     112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 7-1 10-2 99.3 99.4 99.3 99.3
Appalachian St. 7-1 8-4 97.7 96.5 97.9 97.4
Arkansas St. 6-2 7-4 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
N. Mexico St. 4-4 6-6 85.8 84.7 85.9 85.5
UL-Monroe 4-4 4-8 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
S. Alabama 3-5 4-8 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
Idaho 3-5 4-8 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
Georgia St. 5-3 6-5 80.9 81.0 80.6 80.9
UL-Lafayette 4-4 5-7 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
Georgia Southern 2-6 2-10 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
Coastal Carolina 2-6 3-9 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
Texas St. 1-7 2-10 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.8 84.5 83.8 84.1

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.1 112.0 112.6 112.6
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
5 BIG TEN 108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 98.7 98.3 98.7 98.6
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.2 85.6 85.0 84.9
11 Sun Belt 83.8 84.5 83.8 84.1

Look for our bowl and playoff spreads following next week’s Army – Navy game.

If you didn’t see our Army-Navy spread last week, it is:

Philadelphia PA PiRate Mean Bias
Army (n) Navy -0.4 -1.0 -0.3

Why the unique color purple?

This is what we call Love Purple.  You can replicate it with the RGB of 69-0-169 and the Hex Code of 4500A9.

Love purple is the official logo color of our mom and pop company in Nashville.  We are highly appreciative of all our supporters here, and we wish you a loving and joyous holiday season.

 

 

 

November 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
USC (n) Stanford -0.7 0.2 -0.6
Central Florida Memphis 3.5 5.5 4.0
Florida St. UL-Monroe 38.0 36.1 37.4
Toledo (n) Akron 16.0 13.5 17.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 14.3 14.8 15.0
Oklahoma (n) TCU 6.5 6.9 7.2
Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern -6.2 -5.9 -5.0
Georgia St. Idaho 7.5 6.3 6.5
Appy St. UL-Lafayette 15.7 13.2 15.6
Arkansas St. Troy -0.8 0.0 0.5
Georgia (n) Auburn -3.1 -1.1 -3.1
New Mexico St. South Alabama 7.9 4.7 7.8
Boise St. Fresno St. 10.6 10.5 10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n) Clemson -7.9 -6.4 -8.6
Wisconsin (n) Ohio St. -6.3 -6.7 -7.5
         
Army (n) Navy -0.4 -1.0 -0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Clemson
2 Wisconsin
3 Alabama
4 Oklahoma
5 Georgia
6 Auburn
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Penn St.
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Washington
12 USC
13 Notre Dame
14 TCU
15 Virginia Tech
16 Stanford
17 Oklahoma St.
18 Michigan St.
19 Memphis
20 Michigan
21 Washington St.
22 Northwestern
23 LSU
24 North Carolina St.
25 Iowa
26 Louisville
27 Mississippi St.
28 Boston College
29 South Florida
30 Iowa St.
31 Boise St.
32 Wake Forest
33 Toledo
34 South Carolina
35 San Diego St.
36 Oregon
37 Florida Atlantic
38 Florida St.
39 Arizona St.
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 West Virginia
43 Purdue
44 Georgia Tech
45 Kansas St.
46 Missouri
47 Arizona
48 Fresno St.
49 UCLA
50 Navy
51 Troy
52 Houston
53 Texas Tech
54 Utah
55 Army
56 Kentucky
57 Duke
58 SMU
59 Northern Illinois
60 Indiana
61 Virginia
62 North Texas
63 California
64 Ole Miss
65 Ohio
66 Pittsburgh
67 Central Michigan
68 Minnesota
69 Florida
70 Syracuse
71 Maryland
72 Wyoming
73 Marshall
74 Colorado
75 Colorado St.
76 Temple
77 Nebraska
78 Western Michigan
79 Tulane
80 Arkansas St.
81 Akron
82 Appalachian St.
83 Southern Miss.
84 Florida Int’l.
85 Vanderbilt
86 Buffalo
87 Arkansas
88 UAB
89 Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 North Carolina
92 Eastern Michigan
93 Rutgers
94 Air Force
95 Louisiana Tech
96 Middle Tennessee
97 UTSA
98 Miami (O)
99 Georgia St.
100 Cincinnati
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 Baylor
105 Massachusetts
106 East Carolina
107 New Mexico St.
108 BYU
109 Nevada
110 Connecticut
111 UL-Monroe
112 Illinois
113 Old Dominion
114 UL-Lafayette
115 Bowling Green
116 South Alabama
117 New Mexico
118 Idaho
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Georgia Southern
122 Kansas
123 Kent St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
2 Ohio St. 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
3 Auburn 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
4 Clemson 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
5 Penn St. 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
6 Georgia 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
7 Oklahoma 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
8 Washington 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
9 Wisconsin 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
10 Miami 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 Stanford 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
13 U S C 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
14 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
15 L S U 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
16 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
17 Louisville 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
18 Florida St. 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
19 Notre Dame 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
20 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
21 Michigan 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
22 Northwestern 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
23 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
24 Iowa 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
25 Memphis 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
26 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
27 Boston College 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
28 Washington St. 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
29 Mississippi St. 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
30 Texas 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
31 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
32 Wake Forest 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
33 Oregon 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
34 Duke 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
35 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Missouri 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
38 West Virginia 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
39 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
40 Utah 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
41 Michigan St. 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
42 Arizona St. 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
43 S. Carolina 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
44 Texas A&M 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
45 Boise St. 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
46 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
47 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
48 Purdue 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
49 Kentucky 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
50 Arizona 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
51 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Toledo 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 U C L A 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 Virginia 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
58 San Diego St. 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
59 Houston 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
63 Navy 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
64 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Army 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
68 Troy 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
69 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
70 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
71 Fresno St. 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
72 SMU 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
73 Ohio U 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
74 Temple 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
75 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
76 Northern Illinois 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
77 Arkansas St. 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
79 Central Michigan 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
80 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
81 Wyoming 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
82 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
83 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
84 Utah St. 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
85 Appalachian St. 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
86 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
87 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
88 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
89 Marshall 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
90 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
91 Massachusetts 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
92 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
98 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
99 Akron 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
100 N. Texas 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
101 Louisiana Tech 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
102 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
104 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
105 W. Kentucky 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
106 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
113 UL-Lafayette 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
114 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
115 UAB 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
116 UL-Monroe 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
117 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
118 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
120 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
121 Georgia Southern 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
122 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
123 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
124 Coastal Carolina 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 8-0 11-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-2 9-2 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 4-4 6-6 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
Connecticut 2-6 3-9 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
Cincinnati 2-6 4-8 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
East Carolina 2-6 3-9 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 7-1 10-1 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
Houston 5-3 7-4 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
Navy 4-4 6-5 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
SMU 4-4 7-5 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
Tulane 3-5 5-7 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
Tulsa 1-7 2-10 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 11-1 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
Louisville 4-4 8-4 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
Florida St. 3-5 5-6 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
N. Carolina St. 6-2 8-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Boston College 4-4 7-5 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
Wake Forest 4-4 7-5 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-1 10-1 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
Virginia Tech 5-3 9-3 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
Duke 3-5 6-6 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-6 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
Virginia 3-5 6-6 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
N. Carolina 1-7 3-9 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-1 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
Oklahoma St. 6-3 9-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 7-2 10-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Iowa State 5-4 7-5 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Texas 5-4 6-6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
Kansas St. 5-4 7-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-4 7-5 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
Baylor 1-8 1-11 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-9 1-11 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 8-1 10-2 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
Penn St. 7-2 10-2 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
Michigan 5-4 8-4 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
Michigan St. 7-2 9-3 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
Indiana 2-7 5-7 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
Maryland 2-7 4-8 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
Rutgers 3-6 4-8 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 9-0 12-0 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
Northwestern 7-2 9-3 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
Iowa 4-5 7-5 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
Purdue 4-5 6-6 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
Minnesota 2-7 5-7 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
Nebraska 3-6 4-8 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
Illinois 0-9 2-10 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 8-0 9-3 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
Marshall 4-4 7-5 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
Middle Tennessee 4-4 6-6 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
Florida Int’l. 5-3 7-4 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
W. Kentucky 4-4 6-6 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
Charlotte 1-7 1-11 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-5 6-5 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
N. Texas 7-1 9-3 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
Southern Miss. 6-2 8-4 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
UAB 6-2 8-4 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
Rice 1-7 1-11 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
U T E P 0-8 0-12 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-3 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
Army   8-3 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
Massachusetts   4-7 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
BYU   4-9 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
Miami (O) 4-4 5-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 6-2 7-5 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
Buffalo 4-4 6-6 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
Bowling Green 2-6 2-10 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
Kent St. 1-7 2-10 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 7-1 10-2 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
Western Michigan 4-4 6-6 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
Central Michigan 6-2 8-4 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
Eastern Michigan 3-5 5-7 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
Ball St. 0-8 2-10 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-1 9-3 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-3 7-5 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
Utah St. 4-4 6-6 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
Air Force 4-4 5-7 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
New Mexico 1-7 3-9 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-2 10-2 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
Fresno St. 7-1 9-3 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
Nevada 3-5 3-9 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
U N L V 4-4 5-7 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
Hawaii 1-8 3-9 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
San Jose St. 1-7 2-11 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
             
MWC Averages     92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 7-2 10-2 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
Stanford 7-2 9-3 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
Washington St. 6-3 9-3 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
Oregon 4-5 7-5 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
California 2-7 5-7 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
Utah 3-6 6-6 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
Arizona St. 6-3 7-5 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
Arizona 5-4 7-5 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
U C L A 4-5 6-6 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
Colorado 2-7 5-7 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 11-1 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
Missouri 4-4 7-5 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
S. Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
Kentucky 4-4 7-5 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
Florida 3-5 4-7 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
Vanderbilt 1-7 5-7 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
Tennessee 0-8 4-8 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
Auburn 7-1 10-2 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
L S U 6-2 9-3 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
Arkansas 1-7 4-8 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 6-1 9-2 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
Arkansas St. 6-1 7-3 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
Appalachian St. 6-1 7-4 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
N. Mexico St. 3-4 5-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
Georgia St. 5-2 6-4 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
UL-Lafayette 4-3 5-6 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
UL-Monroe 4-4 4-7 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
Georgia Southern 2-5 2-9 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
Idaho 2-5 3-8 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
Texas St. 1-7 2-10 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
2 SEC 111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
5 BIG TEN 108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Northern Illinois
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Temple Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC UAB Ohio U
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [Duke] [Iowa St.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Marshall]
Dollar General MAC SBC Toledo Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Texas Tech Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Boston College [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 North Carolina St. Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Utah St.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Arizona
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Iowa [UCLA]
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Washington Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Va. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC Penn St.
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Alabama
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan LSU
Peach At-large At-large Auburn Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Wisconsin Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Clemson Georgia
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Oklahoma Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

November 21, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 21-25, 2017

Ugh!  After a nice streak of winning weeks to get us into the black, albeit by a sliver, our picks wore the collar last week.  Now, we are 9% in the red with just a couple weeks left to go to try to make it three consecutive winning seasons.  Boycotting the NFL picks has really hurt us this year, but that had to be done.

Maybe with 5 picks this week, we can hit on something that we have not been able to do well in the last few years–hit big on rivalry week.  In past years, we have played it safe and issued only one or two parlays on this week.  When a 2-9 team plays its 9-2 rival, the outcome isn’t as cut and dry as the week before when 2-8 played 8-2 in a non-rivalry game.

We only went with five games to throw a lot of darts on the board and hope we can somehow come out with a high enough score to win.  We need to win any three of these parlays to put us back in the black for the year, but winning three of five during rivalry week is crazy.  So, if we do, it is more pure dumb luck than our strategy.

As always, this is just an exercise for fun among one PiRate Captain and his 5 lasses.

Date
Nov 21-25
#1 @ +147  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Kent St.
Florida Int’l. Western Ky.
   
#2 @ +137  
Must Win Must Lose
Texas Texas Tech
Tennessee Vanderbilt
   
#3 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
La.-Lafayette Georgia Southern
Florida St. Florida
Clemson South Carolina
   
#4 @ +154  
Must Win Must Lose
North Texas Rice
Middle Tenn. Old Dominion
Alabama Auburn
Wisconsin Minnesota
   
#5 @ +156  
Must Win Must Lose
Eastern Mich. Bowling Green
Georgia Georgia Tech
Northwestern Illinois
Virginia Tech Virginia
San Diego St. New Mexico

 

November 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 21-25, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Kent St. 16.2 16.9 16.6
Eastern Michigan Bowling Green 17.7 16.8 17.7
Ball St. Miami (O) -20.5 -20.5 -21.0
Mississippi St. Ole Miss 11.6 12.9 12.7
TCU Baylor 24.2 21.2 24.4
Toledo Western Michigan 7.5 8.1 8.3
Virginia Virginia Tech -13.7 -14.2 -13.2
Central Michigan Northern Illinois 1.1 1.8 0.8
Buffalo Ohio U -9.4 -8.6 -8.4
Arkansas Missouri -7.9 -6.6 -7.6
San Diego St. New Mexico 20.5 20.7 21.2
Houston Navy 4.2 3.6 3.9
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) -16.3 -14.9 -15.8
Nebraska Iowa -9.3 -9.1 -9.0
Troy Texas St. 24.9 23.0 25.2
Central Florida South Florida 6.8 8.8 7.8
Florida Int’l. Western Kentucky -2.7 -2.2 -2.7
Texas Texas Tech 12.5 12.7 13.8
UCLA California 1.6 3.1 2.6
Cincinnati Connecticut 2.6 2.6 3.2
Syracuse Boston College -1.6 -3.0 -2.2
Rutgers Michigan St. -8.2 -9.5 -9.5
Purdue Indiana -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
Michigan Ohio St. -13.6 -11.4 -14.8
North Carolina St. North Carolina 14.0 14.1 14.7
Wake Forest Duke 5.9 4.8 7.1
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -6.8 -5.8 -6.5
Tennessee Vanderbilt 4.4 3.6 3.9
Kansas St. Iowa St. 2.3 2.1 1.3
Kentucky Louisville -6.0 -5.9 -7.1
Georgia Tech Georgia -13.3 -15.3 -15.0
Maryland Penn St. -24.0 -21.5 -24.8
Illinois Northwestern -21.9 -20.0 -23.1
Rice North Texas -12.7 -12.6 -13.2
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -27.1 -26.5 -28.5
Air Force Utah St. -0.3 0.9 -0.3
Marshall Southern Miss. 8.0 8.3 9.2
Nevada UNLV 3.8 4.0 4.7
Washington Washington St. 11.8 11.8 12.1
San Jose St. Wyoming -26.8 -25.4 -27.0
Utah Colorado 2.7 4.6 4.7
Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas St. -8.3 -8.7 -10.3
Middle Tennessee Old Dominion 6.9 5.8 7.7
Minnesota Wisconsin -19.4 -16.0 -19.2
Stanford Notre Dame 5.3 4.8 4.3
South Carolina Clemson -18.2 -16.7 -18.4
LSU Texas A&M 11.2 11.1 12.2
Fresno St. Boise St. -8.2 -7.7 -8.0
SMU Tulane 6.9 7.1 6.8
Oklahoma St. Kansas 41.7 37.8 43.5
Arizona St. Arizona 0.6 1.2 1.3
Oklahoma West Virginia 18.4 16.8 19.0
Oregon Oregon St. 16.6 14.9 17.3
New Mexico St. Idaho 9.9 7.5 9.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Georgia Southern 8.3 7.9 9.0
Tulsa Temple 5.1 3.9 4.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA -0.2 -0.5 -0.5
Memphis East Carolina 27.0 24.9 27.7
UAB UTEP 16.1 13.1 17.8
Auburn Alabama -7.3 -5.9 -6.0
Florida Florida St. -8.9 -8.4 -7.9
Hawaii BYU -3.4 -2.2 -3.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Retro Rankings

Based on what the teams have done for the entire season and not forward looking

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 TCU
14 Washington
15 Mississippi St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Washington St.
18 Michigan
19 Oklahoma St.
20 Memphis
21 Michigan St.
22 Stanford
23 Northwestern
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Wake Forest
28 Iowa St.
29 Iowa
30 South Florida
31 South Carolina
32 Boston College
33 Texas A&M
34 Louisville
35 Toledo
36 San Diego St.
37 Texas
38 Florida Atlantic
39 Oregon
40 Georgia Tech
41 West Virginia
42 Arizona
43 Navy
44 Florida St.
45 Arizona St.
46 Purdue
47 Kentucky
48 Northern Illinois
49 Missouri
50 Fresno St.
51 Kansas St.
52 Indiana
53 UCLA
54 Troy
55 Houston
56 Army
57 Ohio
58 Texas Tech
59 Virginia
60 SMU
61 Utah
62 California
63 North Texas
64 Duke
65 Florida
66 Wyoming
67 Syracuse
68 Maryland
69 Minnesota
70 Marshall
71 Ole Miss
72 Colorado
73 Western Michigan
74 Nebraska
75 Colorado St.
76 Central Michigan
77 Tulane
78 Pittsburgh
79 Utah St.
80 Arkansas St.
81 Temple
82 Tennessee
83 Akron
84 Arkansas
85 Southern Miss.
86 Florida Int’l.
87 Appalachian St.
88 North Carolina
89 Rutgers
90 UAB
91 Vanderbilt
92 UTSA
93 Georgia St.
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Buffalo
96 Air Force
97 Western Kentucky
98 Louisiana Tech
99 Middle Tennessee
100 Miami (O)
101 UNLV
102 Tulsa
103 Cincinnati
104 Connecticut
105 East Carolina
106 Massachusetts
107 Old Dominion
108 UL-Monroe
109 UL-Lafayette
110 New Mexico St.
111 Baylor
112 South Alabama
113 Illinois
114 BYU
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico
117 Idaho
118 Oregon St.
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Coastal Carolina
124 Georgia Southern
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

PiRate Ratings For This Week

Forward Looking Predictive Ratings totally unrelated to rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
2 Ohio St. 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
3 Auburn 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
4 Clemson 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
5 Georgia 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
6 Oklahoma 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
7 Penn St. 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
8 Miami 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
9 Washington 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
10 Wisconsin 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
13 U S C 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
14 Stanford 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
15 Virginia Tech 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
16 L S U 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
17 Notre Dame 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
18 Florida St. 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
19 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
20 Louisville 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
21 Michigan 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
22 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
23 Washington St. 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
24 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
25 Texas 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
26 Northwestern 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
27 Wake Forest 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
28 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
29 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
30 Iowa 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
31 Georgia Tech 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
32 Memphis 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
33 West Virginia 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
34 Boston College 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
35 Missouri 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Texas A&M 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
38 Duke 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
39 S. Carolina 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
40 Oregon 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
41 Kentucky 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
43 Arizona 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
44 Indiana 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
45 Utah 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
46 Arizona St. 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
47 Florida 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
48 Pittsburgh 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
49 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
50 Colorado 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
51 Purdue 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
52 Syracuse 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
53 California 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
54 Ole Miss 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
55 U C L A 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Texas Tech 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
57 Virginia 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
58 San Diego St. 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
59 Toledo 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Houston 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
62 Minnesota 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
63 Navy 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
64 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
65 Florida Atlantic 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
66 Army 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
67 Tennessee 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
68 Ohio U 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
69 Wyoming 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
70 Nebraska 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
74 SMU 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
75 Vanderbilt 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
76 Western Michigan 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
77 Fresno St. 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
79 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
80 Tulsa 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
81 Troy 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
84 Utah St. 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
85 Tulane 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
86 Temple 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
87 Oregon St. 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
88 Rutgers 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
89 Appalachian St. 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
90 Marshall 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
91 Air Force 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
92 W. Kentucky 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
93 Massachusetts 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
94 U T S A 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Nevada 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
97 Illinois 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
98 BYU 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
99 Akron 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
100 N. Texas 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
101 Middle Tennessee 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
102 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
103 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
104 U N L V 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
105 Louisiana Tech 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
106 East Carolina 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Florida Int’l. 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
109 Connecticut 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
110 Cincinnati 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
111 New Mexico 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
112 UL-Lafayette 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
113 Georgia St. 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
114 Old Dominion 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
115 UL-Monroe 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
116 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
117 Hawaii 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
118 UAB 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
120 Bowling Green 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
121 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
122 Georgia Southern 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
125 Rice 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
126 Coastal Carolina 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
127 Charlotte 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
128 San Jose St. 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
129 U T E P 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 7-0 10-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-1 9-1 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 3-4 5-6 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
East Carolina 2-5 3-8 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
Connecticut 2-5 3-8 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
Cincinnati 1-6 3-8 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 6-1 9-1 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
Houston 4-3 6-4 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
Navy 4-3 6-4 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
SMU 3-4 6-5 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
Tulsa 1-6 2-9 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
Tulane 3-4 5-6 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 10-1 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
Florida St. 3-5 4-6 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
N. Carolina St. 5-2 7-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Louisville 4-4 7-4 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
Wake Forest 4-3 7-4 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
Boston College 3-4 6-5 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
Syracuse 2-5 4-7 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-0 10-0 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
Virginia Tech 4-3 8-3 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-5 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
Duke 2-5 5-6 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
Pittsburgh 2-5 4-7 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
Virginia 3-4 6-5 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
N. Carolina 1-6 3-8 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 7-1 10-1 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
Oklahoma St. 5-3 8-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 6-2 9-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Texas 5-3 6-5 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
Iowa State 5-3 7-4 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Kansas St. 4-4 6-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-3 7-4 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
Texas Tech 2-6 5-6 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
Baylor 1-7 1-10 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-8 1-10 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 9-2 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
Penn St. 6-2 9-2 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
Michigan 5-3 8-3 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
Indiana 2-6 5-6 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
Michigan St. 6-2 8-3 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
Maryland 2-6 4-7 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
Rutgers 3-5 4-7 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 8-0 11-0 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
Northwestern 6-2 8-3 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
Iowa 3-5 6-5 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
Purdue 3-5 5-6 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
Minnesota 2-6 5-6 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
Nebraska 3-5 4-7 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
Illinois 0-8 2-9 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 7-0 8-3 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
Marshall 4-3 7-4 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
W. Kentucky 4-3 6-5 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
Middle Tennessee 3-4 5-6 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
Florida Int’l. 4-3 6-4 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
Old Dominion 3-4 5-6 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
Charlotte 1-6 1-10 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-4 6-4 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
N. Texas 6-1 8-3 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
Southern Miss. 5-2 7-4 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
Louisiana Tech 3-4 5-6 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
UAB 5-2 7-4 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
Rice 1-6 1-10 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
U T E P 0-7 0-11 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-2 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
Army   8-3 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
Massachusetts   4-7 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
BYU   3-9 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
             
Indep. Averages     99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-2 8-3 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
Miami (O) 3-4 4-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 5-2 6-5 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
Buffalo 3-4 5-6 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
Bowling Green 2-5 2-9 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
Kent St. 1-6 2-9 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-1 9-2 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
Western Michigan 4-3 6-5 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
Northern Illinois 6-1 8-3 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
Eastern Michigan 2-5 4-7 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
Central Michigan 5-2 7-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-7 2-9 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-0 9-2 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-2 7-4 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
Utah St. 4-3 6-5 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
Air Force 3-4 4-7 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
New Mexico 1-6 3-8 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-2 9-2 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
Fresno St. 6-1 8-3 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
Nevada 2-5 2-9 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
U N L V 4-3 5-6 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
Hawaii 1-7 3-8 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
San Jose St. 0-7 1-11 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 6-2 9-2 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
Stanford 7-2 8-3 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
Oregon 3-5 6-5 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
California 2-6 5-6 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-8 1-10 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
Arizona 5-3 7-4 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
Utah 2-6 5-6 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
Arizona St. 5-3 6-5 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
U C L A 3-5 5-6 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 10-1 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
Missouri 3-4 6-5 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
S. Carolina 5-3 8-3 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
Kentucky 4-4 7-4 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
Florida 3-5 4-6 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
Tennessee 0-7 4-7 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
Vanderbilt 0-7 4-7 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 11-0 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
Auburn 6-1 9-2 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
L S U 5-2 8-3 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
Mississippi St. 4-3 8-3 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
Texas A&M 4-3 7-4 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
Ole Miss 2-5 5-6 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
Arkansas 1-6 4-7 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
Arkansas St. 5-1 6-3 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
N. Mexico St. 2-4 4-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
UL-Lafayette 4-2 5-5 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-6 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
Idaho 2-4 3-7 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Georgia Southern 1-5 1-9 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
Texas St. 1-6 2-9 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC La. Tech UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Houston Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Utah St.] Marshall
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Int’l. Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [UAB] [UNLV]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UCLA] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Utah] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Arizona
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Southern Miss.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Washington
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Wake Forest South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Arizona St.
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Indiana Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 NC St. Miss. St.
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Penn St. USC
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Notre Dame
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Memphis TCU
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Northwestern Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Miami (Fla.) Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Championship Games and Bowl Eligibles By Conference

If you are a fan of a team that will finish 5-6 or 5-7, you can forget your team playing in a bowl with a losing record this season.  In fact, we project two bowl eligible teams to miss out on all the fun this year, as we project 80 teams to be bowl eligible this season.

American Athletic

The UCF-USF winner this week will face Memphis for the conference championship.  It looks like UCF and Memphis will meet in Orlando in a rematch game.  UCF won the first one convincingly, but Memphis is several points better now than then.  The winner of this game almost assuredly plays in the New Year’s Six Bowl as the Group of 5 Representative, and it will more than likely be at the Peach Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy, Houston, SMU)

5-Wins: Temple and Tulane

Temple must win at Tulsa, which is doable but less than 50-50.

Tulane must win at SMU, which is also doable but less than 50-50 and less then Temple’s chances.

Atlantic Coast 

Clemson will play Miami (Fla.) in Charlotte.  The winner has about a 92% chance of gaining a Playoff spot, while the loser will most likely get an Orange Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville, NC St., Boston College, Miami, Va. Tech, Virginia

5-Wins: Georgia Tech and Duke

Georgia Tech would have to pull off the monumental upset of Georgia, which they may have about a 3-5% chance of doing.

Duke must win at Wake Forest, and the Demon Deacons are playing like a top 20 team.  The Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech, so they could be peaking at the right time.

4-Wins: Florida St.

The Seminoles were able to reschedule their cancelled hurricane game with UL-Monroe, and now they can become bowl eligible by beating Florida and ULM.  We believe their chances to get to 6-6 are about 70-75% in their favor.

Big 12

Oklahoma has clinched the top seed in the renewal of the Big 12 Championship Game.  TCU needs to beat Baylor this week to get the number two seed.  If the Horn Frogs croak against the Bears, then Oklahoma St. will get the bid with a win over hapless Kansas.  There is a very remote chance that Iowa St. could still get in, but it would require too many things to take place.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (Oklahoma, TCU, Okla. St., Iowa St., Texas, West Virginia, Kansas St.)

5-Wins: Texas Tech

Texas Tech closes the season at Texas, and we believe the Longhorns will handle the Red Raiders and most likely end the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock.

Big Ten

Wisconsin and Ohio State have clinched their divisions and will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Badgers’ defense may be up to the task to handle an inconsistent Buckeye offense.  If so, UW is Playoff-bound.  A Buckeye win opens the door for a one-loss Miami or one-loss Alabama team to get this bid, or if Miami and Alabama are unbeaten, there will be a big controversy over the #4 seed between a 2-loss Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Notre Dame, and maybe even an undefeated UCF if they win their last two games.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 8) (Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa)

5-Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota.

Indiana and Purdue play for the Old Oaken Bucket and a bowl bid, as the winner will be 6-6.

Minnesota must beat undefeated Wisconsin to finish 6-6.  With the Gophers’ offense struggling, and the Badgers defense peaking, UW could win this won in an ugly fashion in the neighborhood of 20-6.

Conference USA

This conference is going to strike it rich this bowl season with a possible 10 teams playing in December.

First, Florida Atlantic and North Texas will square off in one of the potentially best championship games in this league’s history.  Win or lose, we are hearing from sources that the Boca Raton Bowl would love to invite hometown team FAU.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (guaranteed to have 9) (Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l., Marshall, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA)

5-Wins: Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion play each other in Murfreesboro this week, so the winner will become bowl eligible.

Louisiana Tech hosts UTSA with a slumping offense, and we give the Bulldogs a 70% chance of winning this game and becoming the 10th bowl eligible CUSA team.  There will be slots available possibly for all 10 teams, and it is possible that two CUSA could face off in a bowl.

Independents

Army is 8-3 with the Navy game remaining.  The Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl bound.

Notre Dame actually counts with the ACC teams, so they are part of the ACC package, and we believe the Irish will  be enjoying Oranges this year, but only if they get by Stanford this week,.

Mid-American

Akron beat Ohio to win the Eastern Division title.  The Zips will play Toledo or Northern Illinois.  TU can clinch the Western Division title with a win at home against Western Michigan or a Northern Illinois loss at Central Michigan.  NIU can win if they beat CMU and WMU beats Toledo.

This league will receive an extra bid and possibly two extra bids.  See Below

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Akron, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan)

5-Wins: Buffalo

Buffalo hosts Ohio U this week, and a Bulls win will give them a 6-6 record.  There is a catch.  Buffalo most likely needs Louisiana Tech or Florida State to lose this week to guarantee a decent shot at a bowl.  We have the Bulls as team #79 in a 78-team bowl field.  There is another little possibility that could help Buffalo get over the top ahead of another bowl eligible team.  The MAC has two secondary bowl agreements, with the Quick Lane and the Foster Farms bowls.

Toledo at 10-2 might be attractive enough for the Foster Farms Bowl to invite the Rockets west to face Oregon, Stanford, Washington, or California.  The Quick Lane is most likely going to need a MAC team as well, so Buffalo could sneak in to a bowl through this back door ahead of a 10th CUSA team.

Mountain West

Here is where a conference championship game will not be as exciting as it should be, unless something really interesting takes place this week.  Boise State and Fresno State have clinched berths in the MWC Championship Game, but the two teams close out the regular season facing each other, so it will be an immediate rematch.  The Las Vegas Bowl bid goes to the winner of the second game.  Even if the Conference Champion loses by 50 points this week and wins by 1 next week, that team gets the Las Vegas Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Boise St., Colorado St., Wyoming, Utah St., Fresno St., San Diego St.)

5-Wins: UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels must win their rivalry game against Nevada, and they must do it in Reno.  UNLV has about a 50-50 shot at pulling it off, giving the MWC 7 bowl teams for 5 bowls.  Two at-large slots will be waiting for the 6th and 7th teams.

Pac-12

USC has clinched the South Division, and the Trojans hold a very minute chance of sneaking into the Playoffs.  More than likely, they are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game for a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

The North Division is still up for grabs between Washington State and Stanford.  If Washington State wins the Apple Cup, then the Pirate Mike Leach will have his team in the Championship Game.  If Washington wins, then Stanford takes the treasure away from the Pirate.

The bigger news in the Pac-12 is the firing of UCLA coach Jim Mora, Jr.  The Bruins still have a game to go at home against California, and the winner will be bowl eligible.  UCLA is actually hoping it can win the Chip Kelly Bowl.  Kelly is rumored to be headed to Westwood, but it is not confirmed.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 9) (Washington St., Stanford, Washington, Oregon, USC, Arizona St., Arizona)

5-Win Teams: California, UCLA, Utah, Colorado

Cal plays at UCLA, and the Bears hope they can swim with the Fisch’s.  Jedd Fisch will be UCLA coach for one or two games.

Colorado visits Utah, so the winner of that game will also be bowl eligible.

Look for the Pac-12 to place 2 at-large teams in bowls back east, most likely the two winners this week.

Southeastern

Normally a league with double digit bowl participants, the SEC is only going to have 9 teams playing in the postseason.

Georgia is waiting for the winner of the Iron Bowl to face off in the SEC Championship Game.  Auburn has become the sexy choice to knock off the number one Crimson Tide, but us old Buccaneers believe this just won’t happen.  We have Alabama set to be the top seed in the Playoffs, hosting team number four in the Sugar Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 9 (Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M)

5-Wins: None

Sun Belt

They have 12 teams in this league, but there is no championship game in the SBC.  The Sun Belt is most likely to have extra teams, including team number 80, or the second bowl eligible team left out of all the fun.

There are two weeks left in the SBC regular season, so there are some 4-6 teams still alive in the bowl hunt.

Bowl Eligible: 4 (Troy, Georgia St., Arkansas St., Appalachian St.)

5-Wins: UL-Lafayette

The Ragin’ Cajuns have two games left and need to win just one to most likely get their New Orleans Bowl bid that they always seem to get whenever they are bowl eligible.  ULL hosts 1-9 Georgia Southern this week and should secure their sixth win.  They finish at Appy State, where they are most likely to lose.

4-Wins: UL-Monroe and New Mexico St.

UL-Monroe has less than 0.5% chance of beating Arkansas St. at home this week and then winning at Florida St. the week after.  So, the Warhawks are basically out of the picture.

New Mexico St. has at least a 50-50 chance of finishing the season with wins over Idaho and South Alabama, both games in Las Cruces.  However, the Aggies do not have a great shot at getting into their first bowl since the 1960 Sun Bowl.  NMSU is leaving the Sun Belt and will become an independent next year.  The SBC has a history of being a tad bush league by shunning teams leaving their conference.  The Aggies have already told the league they can only accept bids to bowls close to home, and we believe they will get to spend the holidays very close to home, because they will not be invited to a bowl if they finish 6-6.  Of course, if two from Louisiana Tech, Buffalo, and Florida State lose, and if Duke loses to Wake Forest and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, then the Aggies will get an invitation at 6-6.  Whether or not they accept it, we cannot predict.

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have a festive Thanksgiving holiday.  Don’t let your tummy be the biggest loser this week.  Pace yourself and try to get some exercise.

Our schedule will be a little different this week.  We are putting out our Monday edition today on Sunday.  We will have both the NFL ratings and Money Line picks on Tuesday, and then we will return next Sunday night or Monday morning.

Thank You to all our followers.  You have made 2017 a record year for PiRate Rating readership.  A lot of you came on board back during March Madness, because we were very lucky to successfully pick all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Our basketball coverage will return just after New Year’s, as our ratings need all the teams to play 8 games before they make any sense.

 

November 13, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Ohio -10.3 -9.0 -10.9
Kent St. Central Michigan -18.5 -17.4 -19.0
Bowling Green Toledo -17.1 -16.1 -18.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan -4.6 -2.7 -3.9
Northern Illinois Western Michigan 1.2 1.9 1.4
Ball St. Buffalo -16.9 -17.1 -18.3
South Florida Tulsa 18.3 17.4 19.4
Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 7.0 5.8 6.8
New Mexico UNLV 1.8 0.1 2.4
Indiana Rutgers 8.3 9.0 8.7
Georgia Kentucky 19.6 20.5 20.7
East Carolina Cincinnati -3.0 -3.2 -4.3
Duke Georgia Tech -7.3 -5.2 -7.3
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 17.3 16.8 17.6
Temple Central Florida -15.1 -16.0 -15.9
Wake Forest North Carolina St. -2.4 -3.5 -2.5
Louisville Syracuse 6.2 6.8 6.7
Northwestern Minnesota 7.8 5.8 8.5
Michigan St. Maryland 9.6 9.2 11.4
West Virginia Texas 2.3 2.3 2.3
Kansas Oklahoma -40.0 -35.4 -42.2
Wyoming Fresno St. 8.6 8.2 7.4
Boise St. Air Force 17.1 15.2 17.3
Utah St. Hawaii 12.0 10.2 11.9
Old Dominion Rice 14.6 15.6 14.7
Southern Miss. Charlotte 15.0 13.8 15.2
BYU Massachusetts 3.3 4.0 2.7
UTEP Louisiana Tech -14.5 -13.4 -15.0
Georgia Southern South Alabama -9.1 -9.7 -9.9
Texas Tech TCU -11.5 -9.8 -12.3
Iowa Purdue 13.0 12.9 12.2
Oregon Arizona 0.6 0.5 0.4
Ohio St. Illinois 46.7 43.4 48.1
Florida UAB 27.3 23.8 24.4
Oregon St. Arizona St. -7.9 -7.5 -9.1
Memphis SMU 13.2 12.2 13.4
Miami (Fla.) Virginia 27.4 26.4 26.8
Baylor Iowa St. -11.6 -10.3 -12.7
Arkansas Mississippi St. -12.9 -13.5 -13.5
Vanderbilt Missouri -6.6 -5.4 -7.2
Washington Utah 25.1 21.7 25.4
Auburn UL-Monroe 49.5 46.6 50.5
Oklahoma St. Kansas St. 16.5 15.4 17.3
Colorado St. San Jose St. 35.2 33.9 35.9
Penn St. Nebraska 32.1 29.9 33.3
Tennessee LSU -14.4 -13.8 -16.5
Notre Dame Navy 20.9 18.7 21.3
Tulane Houston -7.7 -6.9 -7.7
UL-Lafayatte New Mexico St. -2.4 0.6 -2.7
Idaho Coastal Carolina 13.8 13.6 13.9
North Texas Army -12.1 -10.2 -11.8
Arkansas St. Texas St. 24.2 23.1 26.0
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 13.4 15.1 14.2
Boston College (n) Connecticut 26.7 24.4 26.5
UTSA Marshall 0.3 1.3 -0.5
Ole Miss Texas A&M -1.0 -0.4 -1.3
Wisconsin Michigan 11.1 8.6 10.6
USC UCLA 17.8 17.5 18.3
Stanford California 16.9 17.3 18.3
San Diego St. Nevada 16.1 14.2 15.8

FBS vs. FCS Games

Home Visitor PiRate
Clemson Citadel 50.0
Alabama Mercer 49.0
Florida St. Delaware St. 50.0
North Carolina Western Carolina 24.0
South Carolina Wofford 27.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Michigan
15 TCU
16 Washington
17 Washington St.
18 Mississippi St.
19 North Carolina St.
20 Memphis
21 Virginia Tech
22 Michigan St.
23 Stanford
24 Iowa
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Northwestern
28 Wake Forest
29 Iowa St.
30 South Florida
31 Arizona
32 South Carolina
33 West Virginia
34 Georgia Tech
35 Boston College
36 San Diego St.
37 Toledo
38 Houston
39 Louisville
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 Navy
43 Florida Atlantic
44 Kentucky
45 Army
46 Arizona St.
47 Ohio
48 Oregon
49 Florida St.
50 Northern Illinois
51 SMU
52 UCLA
53 Texas Tech
54 Troy
55 Missouri
56 Utah
57 California
58 Syracuse
59 Fresno St.
60 Wyoming
61 Marshall
62 Purdue
63 Virginia
64 Minnesota
65 Ole Miss
66 Kansas St.
67 Indiana
68 North Texas
69 Maryland
70 Western Michigan
71 Florida
72 Colorado
73 Nebraska
74 Colorado St.
75 Duke
76 Central Michigan
77 Pittsburgh
78 Temple
79 Tennessee
80 Arkansas St.
81 Rutgers
82 Utah St.
83 Arkansas
84 Florida Int’l.
85 UAB
86 Vanderbilt
87 Tulane
88 Akron
89 Southern Miss.
90 Appalachian St.
91 North Carolina
92 Georgia St.
93 Air Force
94 Middle Tennessee
95 Eastern Michigan
96 Buffalo
97 Miami (O)
98 UTSA
99 Cincinnati
100 Louisiana Tech
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 New Mexico St.
105 South Alabama
106 Connecticut
107 Old Dominion
108 BYU
109 UL-Monroe
110 Baylor
111 Massachusetts
112 Illinois
113 Nevada
114 UL-Lafayette
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 Oregon St.
118 East Carolina
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 Georgia Southern
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

 

 

PiRate Predictive Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
2 Ohio St. 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
3 Auburn 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
4 Clemson 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
5 Penn St. 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
6 Washington 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
7 Georgia 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
8 Miami 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
9 Oklahoma 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
10 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
11 Wisconsin 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
12 Stanford 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
13 U S C 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
14 Virginia Tech 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
15 T C U 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
16 Notre Dame 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
17 L S U 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
18 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
19 Michigan 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
20 Florida St. 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
22 Georgia Tech 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
23 Washington St. 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
24 Central Florida 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
25 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
26 Iowa 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
27 Texas 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
28 Louisville 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
29 Wake Forest 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
30 West Virginia 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
31 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
32 South Florida 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 Kansas St. 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
35 Memphis 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Arizona 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
38 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
39 Kentucky 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
40 Texas A&M 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
41 Missouri 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
43 Oregon 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
44 Florida 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
45 Minnesota 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
46 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
47 Arizona St. 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
48 Duke 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
49 Pittsburgh 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
50 Colorado 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
51 Utah 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
52 Texas Tech 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
53 Ole Miss 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
54 California 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
55 Houston 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
56 Indiana 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 U C L A 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
59 San Diego St. 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
60 Virginia 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
61 N. Carolina 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
62 Toledo 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
63 Colo. State 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
64 Army 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
65 Navy 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
66 Wyoming 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
67 Ohio U 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
68 Vanderbilt 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
69 Florida Atlantic 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
70 Tennessee 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
71 SMU 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
73 Baylor 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
74 Arkansas 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
75 Western Michigan 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
76 Nebraska 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
77 Rutgers 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
78 Northern Illinois 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
79 Eastern Michigan 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
80 Arkansas St. 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
81 Troy 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Fresno St. 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
84 Temple 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
85 Tulsa 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
86 Oregon St. 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
87 Air Force 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
88 Tulane 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
91 Utah St. 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
92 W. Kentucky 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
93 U T S A 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
94 Massachusetts 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
95 BYU 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
96 Nevada 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
97 Miami (O) 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
98 Illinois 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
99 Cincinnati 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
100 Akron 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
101 N. Mexico St. 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
102 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
103 Middle Tennessee 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
104 U N L V 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
105 N. Texas 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
106 S. Alabama 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
107 Louisiana Tech 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
108 Florida Int’l. 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
109 New Mexico 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
110 Connecticut 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
111 Hawaii 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
113 Old Dominion 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
114 Georgia St. 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
115 UAB 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
116 East Carolina 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
117 UL-Lafayette 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
118 Kansas 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
119 UL-Monroe 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
120 Bowling Green 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
121 Idaho 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
125 Charlotte 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
126 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
127 Coastal Carolina 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
128 U T E P 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
129 San Jose St. 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 6-0 9-0 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
South Florida 5-1 8-1 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
Temple 3-3 5-5 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
Cincinnati 1-5 3-7 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
Connecticut 2-5 3-7 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
East Carolina 1-5 2-8 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
Navy 4-3 6-3 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
SMU 3-3 6-4 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
Tulane 2-4 4-6 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 9-1 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
N. Carolina St. 5-1 7-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-5 3-6 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
Louisville 3-4 6-4 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
Wake Forest 3-3 6-4 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
Boston College 3-4 5-5 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Syracuse 2-4 4-6 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 9-0 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
Virginia Tech 3-3 7-3 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
Georgia Tech 4-3 5-4 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
Duke 1-5 4-6 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
Pittsburgh 2-4 4-6 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
Virginia 3-3 6-4 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
N. Carolina 1-6 2-8 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 6-1 9-1 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
Oklahoma St. 5-2 8-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-2 8-2 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
Iowa State 4-3 5-5 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
Texas 4-3 5-5 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
West Virginia 5-2 7-3 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
Kansas St. 3-4 5-5 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
Texas Tech 2-5 5-5 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
Baylor 1-6 1-9 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
Kansas 0-7 1-9 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-1 8-2 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
Penn St. 5-2 8-2 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
Michigan 5-2 8-2 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
Michigan St. 5-2 7-3 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
Indiana 1-6 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
Maryland 2-5 4-6 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
Rutgers 3-4 4-6 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 7-0 10-0 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
Iowa 3-4 6-4 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
Northwestern 5-2 7-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Minnesota 2-5 5-5 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
Purdue 2-5 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Nebraska 3-4 4-6 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
Illinois 0-7 2-8 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 6-0 7-3 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
Marshall 4-2 7-3 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
W. Kentucky 3-3 5-5 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
Middle Tennessee 3-3 5-5 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
Florida Int’l. 4-2 6-3 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
Old Dominion 2-4 4-6 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
Charlotte 1-5 1-9 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-4 5-4 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
N. Texas 6-1 7-3 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
Louisiana Tech 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
Southern Miss. 4-2 6-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
UAB 5-2 7-3 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
Rice 1-5 1-9 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-6 0-10 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-2 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
Army   8-2 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
Massachusetts   3-7 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
BYU   3-8 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-1 8-2 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
Miami (O) 3-3 4-6 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
Akron 4-2 5-5 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
Buffalo 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
Bowling Green 2-4 2-8 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
Kent St. 1-5 2-8 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-1 8-2 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
Western Michigan 4-2 6-4 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
Eastern Michigan 1-5 3-7 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
Central Michigan 4-2 6-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-6 2-8 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 6-0 8-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-3 6-5 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
Wyoming 5-1 7-3 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
Air Force 3-3 4-6 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
New Mexico 1-5 3-7 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
Fresno St. 5-1 7-3 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
Nevada 2-4 2-8 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
U N L V 3-3 4-6 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
Hawaii 1-6 3-7 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
San Jose St. 0-6 1-10 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
             
MWC Averages     92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-2 8-2 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
Stanford 6-2 7-3 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
California 2-5 5-5 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
Oregon St. 0-7 1-9 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 7-1 9-2 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
Arizona 5-2 7-3 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
Arizona St. 4-3 5-5 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
Utah 2-5 5-5 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
U C L A 3-4 5-5 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-1 9-1 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
S. Carolina 5-3 7-3 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
Kentucky 4-3 7-3 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
Missouri 2-4 5-5 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
Florida 3-5 3-6 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
Vanderbilt 0-6 4-6 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
Tennessee 0-6 4-6 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 10-0 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
Auburn 6-1 8-2 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
L S U 4-2 7-3 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
Mississippi St. 3-3 7-3 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
Texas A&M 3-3 6-4 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
Ole Miss 2-4 5-5 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
Arkansas 1-5 4-6 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-1 5-3 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
N. Mexico St. 2-3 4-5 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
S. Alabama 3-3 4-6 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-5 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-5 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
Idaho 2-3 3-6 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
Georgia Southern 0-5 0-9 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
Texas St. 1-5 2-8 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
Coastal Carolina 0-6 1-9 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.7 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.5
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
7 AAC 97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.7 84.5 83.8 84.0

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Navy Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Boston College] Southern Miss.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Temple [Florida Int’l.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Western Ky.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Miami (O) Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Colorado] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Virginia [Central Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 [Fresno St.] Oregon
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Wake Forest [Middle Tenn.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Georgia Tech Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Northern Illinois] Arizona
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas LSU
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 South Florida Florida St.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan St. Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 West Virginia Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville UCLA
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 North Carolina St. Missouri
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Kansas St. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC TCU
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Ohio St. Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Oklahoma Miami (Fla.)
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Who Should Be National Coach of the Year
If Alabama wins the National Championship this year with a perfect 15-0 record, Nick Saban would be the odds-on favorite to win the National Coach of the Year Award. Playing in a very tough SEC Western Division and adding a win over Georgia, plus two in the Playoffs, it would be hard to argue with anybody that voted Saban number one on their ballots.

However, we here at the PiRate Ratings not only do not think Saban should be the National Coach of the Year, he shouldn’t be the State of Alabama Coach of the Year!
This is not a knock against Saban. In our opinion, Saban’s coaching job this year would be the same as Swen Nater as the second best center in the nation in 1972 and 1973 when he was at UCLA (unfortunately, number one was Bill Walton).

If you are over the age of 50 like so many of our readers, you remember SMU receiving the death penalty, not being allowed to play for two years. When the Mustangs returned to college football, they suffered through years and years of very weak football seasons. It was a new century before the Mustangs finally returned to a bowl.

What would you have thought of any coach that not only could have quickly taken SMU to a bowl in its first year back in football? That SMU coach that helped bring SMU back to football was none other than the greatest offensive tackle in NFL history–Forrest Gregg.  The job was too hard, and SMU won just four games in its first three years back in business.

A similar instance has presented the college football nation with another team not playing football for two seasons before returning this year. UAB dropped football for financial reasons after finishing 6-6 in 2014. The Blazers were expected to struggle mightily in their first season back in FBS football, being lucky to win a game this year. Except, nobody told Coach Bill Clark that his team was not supposed to come within one game of the CUSA West Division title and become bowl eligible, but that is exactly where UAB sits through 10 games of the season. The Blazers are 7-3, and Clark deserves serious consideration for NCOY; nobody has done a better job than Clark.
The Conference Races & Bowl Eligibility
Around the first of February every year, college basketball fans start looking in earnest at which teams appear to be in the NCAA Tournament, which are on “the bubble,” and which appear to be headed to a lesser tournament or none at all. In the Playoff era of FBS football, somebody should start something similar. So, here is a list for each conference.

Group of 5 Conferences
American Athletic Conference
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Central Florida, South Florida, Memphis, Houston, Navy, SMU
5-Win Teams: 1 — Temple
4-Win Teams: 1 — Tulane
Bowl Tie-ins: 7
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 (but the champion is likely to receive the NY6 Bowl bid, leaving this league one team short in its needs to fill its bowl tie-ins.

Central Florida leads the race for the one New Year’s Six Bowl slot that goes to a Group of 5 team, but Memphis has just one loss (to UCF). Should the Tigers beat UCF in a rematch at the AAC