The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 25, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 25, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Auburn

Ole Miss

9.3

Ball St.

Western Michigan

11.0

Baylor

Kansas St.

16.0

Bowling Green

Akron

-3.3

Central Michigan

Toledo

0.6

Davidson

La Salle

10.8

Eastern Michigan

Northern Illinois

2.6

George Mason

Dayton

-12.9

Georgia Tech

Clemson

3.0

Iowa St.

TCU

4.5

Kent St.

Miami (O)

10.2

Loyola (Chi.)

Drake

7.9

Michigan St.

Iowa

7.2

Mississippi St.

Alabama

2.0

North Carolina

North Carolina St.

-0.6

Ohio

Buffalo

-0.6

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

-1.2

San Diego St.

Colorado St.

14.6

SMU

Memphis

0.5

Texas A&M

Kentucky

-7.4

Tulsa

Tulane

10.7

Utah St.

San Jose St.

21.8

Valparaiso

Missouri St.

1.8

Wake Forest

Duke

-12.6

Wyoming

Nevada

-10.8

Xavier

DePaul

7.3

 

Key TV Games On Tuesday 

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN

Texas A&M

Kentucky

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Michigan St.

Iowa

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Bowling Green

Akron

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

9:00 PM

CBSSN

SMU

Memphis

9:00 PM

SECN

Mississippi St.

Alabama

 

 

 

February 24, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 24, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:35 am

Date

2/21/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Baylor

Gonzaga

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Duke

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Creighton

Seton Hall

Louisville

Villanova

4

Kentucky

Oregon

Penn St.

West Virginia

5

Colorado

Auburn

Michigan St.

Butler

6

Iowa

Ohio St.

Michigan

Arizona

7

BYU

Marquette

Wisconsin

LSU

8

Houston

Illinois

Texas Tech

Arizona St.

9

Saint Mary’s

Florida

Virginia

Indiana

10

Rutgers

Xavier

Rhode Island

USC

11

Wichita St.

Utah St.

East Tennessee St.

Northern Iowa

12

Yale

Liberty

North Carolina St.

Oklahoma

Cincinnati

Providence

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

Belmont

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

South Dakota St.

16

Radford

Montana

Saint Peter’s

Prairie View

St. Francis (PA)

N. C. A&T

Bubble Teams Outside The Field (in order)

 

69

Richmond

70

Stanford

71

Georgetown

72

Arkansas

73

Alabama

74

Purdue

75

Memphis

76

UCLA

77

Mississippi St.

78

Minnesota

79

UNC Greensboro

80

Furman

 

Teams on the Rise

Akron

Arizona St.

Belmont

BYU

Creighton

Dayton

East Tennessee St.

Hofstra

Kansas

Kentucky

Michigan

Montana

New Mexico St.

Prairie View

Radford

St. Francis (PA)

Saint Peter’s

South Dakota St.

Stephen F. Austin

UCLA

UNC Greensboro

Utah St.

Villanova

Virginia

Wisconsin

 

Teams on the Decline

Butler

Marquette

Oklahoma

Penn St.

Purdue

Rider

Rutgers

South Carolina

USC

West Virginia

Winthrop

 

 

 

 

 

February 19, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 19, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:08 am

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Alabama

Texas A&M

13.1

American

Navy

4.9

Arkansas St.

UL Monroe

7.0

Bradley

Missouri St.

4.9

Cincinnati

Central Florida

11.2

Citadel

Chattanooga

-8.4

Colgate

Lehigh

15.3

DePaul

Villanova

-3.4

Drake

Valparaiso

2.4

Duquesne

George Washington

11.4

East Tennessee St.

Furman

4.6

Fresno St.

Air Force

6.2

Georgetown

Providence

4.8

Georgia

Auburn

-3.4

Houston

Tulsa

10.0

Houston Baptist

Abilene Christian

-10.7

Incarnate Word

McNeese

-7.3

La Salle

Fordham

7.6

Lafayette

Boston U

-0.3

Louisville

Syracuse

10.0

Loyola (Chi.)

Illinois St.

11.4

Loyola (MD)

Army

2.6

Memphis

East Carolina

15.8

Mercer

Samford

7.5

Minnesota

Indiana

4.9

Mississippi St.

South Carolina

5.5

North Carolina St.

Duke

-8.4

North Dakota

South Dakota St.

-4.1

Northwestern St.

Nicholls St.

-4.3

Richmond

George Mason

11.8

Rutgers

Michigan

1.2

Sam Houston St.

Lamar

8.8

San Jose St.

Boise St.

-11.5

Seton Hall

Butler

5.7

Siena

Iona

7.0

South Dakota

North Dakota St.

0.3

Stephen F. Austin

Central Arkansas

14.0

Texas

TCU

4.1

Texas Tech

Kansas St.

12.0

Tulane

SMU

-6.1

UC Irvine

Long Beach St.

15.7

UMKC

California Baptist

-0.2

UNC Greensboro

Wofford

10.1

Utah St.

Wyoming

21.1

Virginia

Boston College

11.6

Virginia Tech

Miami

4.9

Wake Forest

Georgia Tech

1.3

Washington St.

California

6.6

Western Carolina

VMI

9.5

 

Wednesday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

FS1

Seton Hall

Butler

7:00 PM

ESPN

Louisville

Syracuse

7:00 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Michigan

7:00 PM

ESPN+

East Tennessee St.

Furman

8:00 PM

ESPN3

South Dakota

North Dakota St.

8:30 PM

FS1

Georgetown

Providence

9:00 PM

ESPN

North Carolina St.

Duke

9:00 PM

ESPNU

Houston

Tulsa

9:00 PM

BTN

Minnesota

Indiana

9:00 PM

SECN

Mississippi St.

South Carolina

In Order To Perform A More Perfect Metric

 

If you follow this website on a semi-regular basis, you know that our R+T Rating has been the one unique metric used by us when predicting NCAA Tournament favorites.

For those of you that are new to this site, our R+T Rating was created two decades ago to estimate the extra scoring opportunities (by points) each team might be better than average in the NCAA Tournament.  We realized long ago that just like the “Money Ball” type of baseball strategies did not work well in the Major League Playoffs, the NCAA Tournament presented its own unique differences and required more than the Four Factors to determine winners when only the good to great teams remain.

The current formula for R+T consists of counting stats, but we have realized for some time that rate stats are much more accurate.  Using baseball as an example, a counting stat would be Johnny Horsehide hitting 43 home runs and driving in 118 runs.  These two stats might lead the Majors, but these stats may not reveal what we want them to reveal.  Gary Goodeye might hit just 34 home runs and drive in 95 runs, but Good Ole Gary might be a better home run hitter than Johnny.  How many times did Horsehide come to the plate?  What if Horsehide walked 34 times in 702 plate appearances while playing for a team that had three all-stars hitting in front of him, all of whom have on-base percentages of .400 or better?

What if Goodeye had 650 plate appearances playing on a team that was quite weak offensively?  Let’s say his teammates that batted in front of him had one-base percentages between .320 and .335.  Let’s say that Goodeye didn’t always get good pitches when he appeared in the batter’s box, and he walked 125 times.

Now, if we look at the number of home runs hit per at bat or plate appearances that did not end in a walk (or hit by pitch or sacrifice), we will see that Goodeye actually hit home runs at a slightly better rate than Horsehide.  As for runs batted in, that statistic is close to meaningless, because in order to drive runs in, runners must be on base.  So, the RBI stat is more reliant on the other players on the team.  It could be that Goodeye drove in runners better than Horsehide, because when we look at how many runners were on base and what base they were on, Goodeye might have had a better percentage at driving those runners in.

Back to basketball.  A team with a rebounding advantage of 43-37 has a +6 margin.  A team with a rebounding advantage of 35-30 has a +5 margin.  Using counting stats, the 43-37 team is one better than the 35-30 team.  But, the 35-30 team rebounded 53.85% of the missed shots, while the 43-37 team only rebounded 53.75% of the shots.  So, the 35-30 team is a little better than the 43-37 team on the surface.

However, it is harder to get offensive rebounds than it is to get defensive rebounds.  In fact, data throughout the calculated history of college basketball shows that an offensive rebound is worth better than 2 1/2 defensive rebounds.  The Four Factors breaks rebounding rate down into offensive and defensive rates.  

Let’s say that in a game,  Team A shot 25 of 60 for 41.7% while shooting 16-22 at the foul line for 72.7%.  Team B shot 28 of 58 for 48.3% while shooting 10-17 at the foul line for 58.8%.  Team A hit one more three point basket than Team B and one by a point.  

Now, let’s look at the rebounding for this game.  First, there were five dead ball rebounds, which we do not count as actual rebounds.  The statistical rules in basketball is that for every missed shot, there must be a rebound.  When a player is at the foul line for two shots, and he misses the first shot, there is not a real rebound.  The foul shooting team gets credited with a dead ball rebound.

To the contrary, team rebounds do count, because these are rebounds in which possession is determined.  When a missed shot ends up out of bounds before possession can be guaranteed, the team that gets possession out of bounds receives an offensive rebound.

In this game after removing the five dead ball rebounds, there were 73 rebounds to be had.  When Team A shot, there were 39 potential rebounds following misses, while when Team B shot, there were 34 potential rebounds following misses.

Looking at the stats, Team A finished with 13 offensive rebounds and 23 defensive rebounds for 36 total rebounds.  Team B finished with 11 offensive rebounds and 26 defensive rebounds for 37 total rebounds.

Team B had a counting rebounding margin of +1, while Team A had a margin of -1.  However, let’s now look at the percentage of offensive rebounds each team enjoyed.  Team A had 13 offensive rebounds out of 39 missed shots, which is 33.3% of the missed shots at their offensive end.  Team B had 11 offensive rebounds out of 34 missed shots for 32.4% of the missed shots at their offensive end. 

Looking at the rate stats, Team A may have retrieved fewer total rebounds than Team B, but they were actually the better rebounding team in this game by almost 1%.

The rate data is obviously more telling than counting data, but how can we determine a point value to substitute rate data for counting data in our R+T Rating, which in the past has picked a lot of surprise NCAA Tournament winners?

We’ve been back-testing values daily for two months.  We had to include a constant in our formulas to smooth out the results to make the numbers mean something.  Without the constant, the results were too far apart to mean something.  Tiny differences led to major spreads, and that did not tell us what we wanted.  

After about 150 to 175 different attempts, we believe (HOPE) that we have finally had a breakthrough.  The following formula will be explained after we reveal it:

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

This formula now refers to Rate Stats.  The “R” in the formula now stands for Rebounding Rate.  This is a combination of both offensive and defensive rebounding rate and it is a deviation from the norm and not just a percentage.  The norm in our experiment is 28.1%.  If a team has an offensive rebounding rate above this number, it is above average, and if it is below this number, it is below average.  Thus, the norm for defensive rebounding rate is the opposite of the above number, or 71.9%.  We then calculate our R part of the formula by taking each team’s offensive rate minus 28.1 plus their defensive rate minus 71.9 and then add the two results and divide by 2.

Example: Today, Houston has an offensive rebounding rate of 38.5%, which is 10.4% higher than average (we experimented with using the actual percentage better which would have been 37% better than average, but we never arrived at a usable final number doing so.)  Houston’s defensive rebounding rate is 74.5%, which is 2.6% better than average. 

We then take both numbers (+10.4 & +2.6), sum the numbers, and divide by 2 to get +6.5.  That would be the R number for Houston in the new formula.

Let’s now update our formula:

((6.5*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

The rest of this formula uses the same system as above.  The norm for steals (S) is 9.2% for both offense and defense.

Houston has a 7.4% steal rate, which is 1.8% below average.  Houston’s opponents have a 7.5% steal rate against them, which is 1.7% above average for Houston.  Once again, we update the formula.

 

((6.5*8)+(-1.8*2+((5- [-1.7])*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

Now, we need Turnover rates, both offensive and defensive.  The norm for turnover rate is 16.9%.  Obviously, the lower the offensive turnover rate is, the better, and the higher the defensive turnover rate is, the better.  Houston’s offensive turnover rate is 14.9%, which is 2.0% better than average.  The Cougars’ defensive turnover rate is 15.8%, which is 1.1% below average.  We sum the two numbers and divide by 2:  2.0 + (-1.1) = 0.9 and divided by 2 = 0.45.  The 0.45 is now our T in the equation and we are ready to solve the equation.  The 2.75 by the way is our constant that when used brings the results into what we hope is a usable formula.

 

((6.5*8)+(-1.8*2+((5- [-1.7])*2)+(.45*4)))/2.75

 

We will simplify the formula in case you have math anxiety like one of our PiRate lasses.

 

((52)+(-3.6+(6.7*2)+(1.8)))/2.75

 

(52+9.8+1.8)/2.75

 

63.6/2.75 = 23.13

 

We will have some growing pains with this new formula, and there’s a good chance that the numbers will be tweaked in the future, but this is the Rate Version of the R+T Rating that we will use in the NCAA Tournament.  Because it is an experiment, we will also use the original R+T formula when we issue our Bracketnomics 2020 edition.

 

Here are the two formulas together for you to compare.

 

Original R+T using actual counting margins and averages

 

(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T

R = Rebounding Margin
S = Average Steals Per Game
T = Turnover Margin

 

New Experimental R+T using rate the percentage number difference from the norm

 

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

The 2020 Norms

Offensive Rebounding:        28.1%

Defensive Rebounding:       71.9%

Steals (O&D):                         9.2%

Turnovers (O&D)                16.9%

 

 

 

 

 

February 3, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 4, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:33 pm

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

15.7

Boston College

Duke

-17.2

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

3.2

Texas Tech

Oklahoma

7.0

DePaul

Xavier

0.8

Maryland

Rutgers

7.4

Michigan

Ohio St.

1.1

Michigan St.

Penn St.

7.9

Fairfield

Monmouth

0.1

Kent St.

Ball St.

3.5

Eastern Michigan

Buffalo

-1.7

Miami (O)

Western Michigan

4.3

Toledo

Northern Illinois

6.0

Central Michigan

Bowling Green

1.5

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

-0.8

Wyoming

Boise St.

-10.7

Nevada

Air Force

10.4

Arkansas

Auburn

3.4

Alabama

Tennessee

6.1

Kentucky

Mississippi St.

4.7

Texas A&M

Missouri

-0.9

 

Tuesday’s Best TV Games

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

FS1

Maryland

Rutgers

7:00 PM

SECN

Arkansas

Auburn

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Michigan

Ohio St.

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Alabama

Tennessee

8:00 PM

BTN

Michigan St.

Penn St.

9:00 PM

ESPN

Kentucky

Mississippi St.

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Texas Tech

Oklahoma

 

 

January 24, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 24 , 2020

Date

1/24/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

San Diego St.

Kansas

2

Florida St.

Duke

Michigan St.

Seton Hall

3

West Virginia

Louisville

Oregon

Dayton

4

Villanova

Butler

Maryland

Iowa

5

Kentucky

Arizona

Auburn

Colorado

6

Creighton

Penn St.

Wisconsin

Marquette

7

LSU

Rutgers

Illinois

Wichita St.

8

Ohio St.

Stanford

Indiana

Arkansas

9

Houston

Michigan

USC

Florida

10

Memphis

Texas Tech

BYU

Saint Mary’s

11

Oklahoma

North Carolina St.

East Tennessee St.

Virginia Tech

VCU

12

Liberty

Akron

North Texas

Minnesota

DePaul

13

Stephen F. Austin

New Mexico St.

Vermont

Harvard

14

Loyola (Chi.)

Colgate

William & Mary

Wright St.

15

Little Rock

UC-Irvine

Murray St.

South Dakota St.

16

Montana

Winthrop

Monmouth

Norfolk St.

Long Island

Prairie View

 

First Four Out

Georgetown

Richmond

Purdue

Xavier

 

Next Four Out

Tennessee

Alabama

Rhode Island

Northern Iowa

 

 

 

 

 

January 22, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 22, 2020

Spreads For Games Being Played Wednesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Xavier

Georgetown

2.6

Auburn

South Carolina

10.9

Louisville

Georgia Tech

13.6

Dayton

St. Bonaventure

16.9

Michigan

Penn St.

4.0

Mississippi St.

Arkansas

1.4

Richmond

La Salle

11.7

Rhode Island

Duquesne

4.3

Fordham

George Washington

0.3

Stony Brook

Binghamton

17.9

Hartford

UMBC

4.6

Albany

UMass Lowell

4.7

Notre Dame

Syracuse

3.2

Temple

Cincinnati

0.1

Marist

Manhattan

-4.2

Loyola (MD)

American

0.4

Lafayette

Army

9.7

Boston U

Navy

5.8

Evansville

Drake

-6.1

Chattanooga

Citadel

10.2

Mercer

Western Carolina

-2.0

Furman

Samford

16.3

Maine

Vermont

-15.9

Davidson

Saint Louis

3.3

George Mason

Massachusetts

5.9

Marshall

Western Kentucky

-0.2

Wofford

VMI

11.8

Holy Cross

Lehigh

-3.5

Northwestern St.

Stephen F. Austin

-10.5

Little Rock

Troy

10.0

Incarnate Word

Lamar

-7.1

Nicholls St.

Houston Baptist

16.4

Loyola (Chi)

Indiana St.

5.1

Texas A&M-CC

New Orleans

4.6

SMU

East Carolina

15.3

Bradley

Illinois St.

11.2

SE Louisiana

McNeese St.

-3.5

South Dakota St.

North Dakota St.

3.6

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

5.4

Seton Hall

Providence

11.4

Sam Houston St.

Abilene Christian

5.3

Tulsa

Memphis

-4.5

DePaul

Creighton

0.5

Pittsburgh

Boston College

10.9

Iowa

Rutgers

5.6

Vanderbilt

Alabama

-8.3

Southern Illinois

Northern Iowa

-6.6

Colorado St.

Fresno St.

4.4

California Baptist

Chicago St.

25.3

UC Davis

Cal St. Fullerton

5.1

Long Beach St.

UC Irvine

-9.6

UCSB

Cal St. Northridge

9.9

Nevada

UNLV

5.1

 

 

 

 

 

January 13, 2020

PiRate College Football Ratings: Final For 2019-2020 Season

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:15 pm

Final PiRate Ratings for 2019-2020

January 14, 2020

 

Congratulations to the LSU Tigers–2019-2020 NCAA FBS National Champions

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

L S U

142.1

140.5

142.9

141.8

2

Ohio St.

141.3

140.2

142.0

141.2

3

Clemson

139.0

137.5

140.2

138.9

4

Alabama

130.2

127.4

130.7

129.4

5

Georgia

126.5

124.9

126.7

126.0

6

Florida

125.1

122.8

124.9

124.2

7

Michigan

124.2

122.6

124.3

123.7

8

Wisconsin

122.6

122.5

123.0

122.7

9

Oregon

122.1

122.0

122.9

122.3

10

Notre Dame

122.1

121.4

122.5

122.0

11

Utah

121.8

120.9

122.4

121.7

12

Penn St.

121.5

120.8

121.8

121.4

13

Auburn

121.7

119.9

121.2

120.9

14

Oklahoma

121.1

120.5

120.8

120.8

15

Iowa

120.1

118.8

119.9

119.6

16

Minnesota

118.4

118.0

118.0

118.1

17

Baylor

117.3

117.1

116.4

116.9

18

Washington

115.5

115.2

116.4

115.7

19

Texas

113.6

113.9

113.5

113.7

20

Texas A&M

115.0

112.5

113.2

113.6

21

Kentucky

112.5

111.6

112.0

112.0

22

Central Florida

111.7

111.2

112.2

111.7

23

Iowa St.

111.6

111.7

111.2

111.5

24

Kansas St.

111.1

111.1

110.9

111.0

25

Virginia Tech

110.4

110.2

110.8

110.5

26

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

27

North Carolina

110.2

110.1

110.9

110.4

28

Oklahoma St.

110.4

110.8

109.8

110.3

29

Memphis

110.0

110.1

110.7

110.3

30

U S C

109.3

109.7

109.9

109.7

31

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

32

Appalachian St.

109.1

108.7

108.3

108.7

33

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

34

Washington St.

108.8

108.1

108.7

108.5

35

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

36

Cincinnati

108.3

107.9

108.5

108.2

37

Virginia

108.1

107.9

108.5

108.2

38

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

39

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.4

108.0

40

Mississippi St.

108.0

104.9

111.0

108.0

41

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

42

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.8

107.1

43

Air Force

105.8

107.5

106.9

106.7

44

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

45

Boise St.

105.7

106.1

106.0

105.9

46

California

104.7

104.7

105.3

104.9

47

Florida St.

104.7

104.4

104.6

104.6

48

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

49

Florida Atlantic

103.7

103.9

105.0

104.2

50

Navy

102.9

105.1

104.4

104.1

51

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

52

Louisiana

103.0

103.1

102.6

102.9

53

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.2

102.9

54

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

55

SMU

102.4

102.3

103.0

102.6

56

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

57

Miami (Fla.)

102.3

101.8

102.6

102.2

58

Louisville

102.0

101.5

102.2

101.9

59

Pittsburgh

102.1

101.5

101.9

101.8

60

BYU

101.9

102.1

101.2

101.7

61

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

62

Illinois

101.2

101.6

100.7

101.2

63

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

64

Tulane

100.6

100.8

101.2

100.9

65

San Diego St.

100.1

101.7

100.1

100.6

66

Wyoming

99.7

101.4

100.1

100.4

67

Boston College

99.5

99.0

99.6

99.4

68

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

69

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

70

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

71

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

72

Ohio

98.4

97.8

98.9

98.4

73

Georgia Southern

97.9

98.0

97.5

97.8

74

Hawaii

97.0

98.3

96.4

97.2

75

Temple

96.9

96.8

98.0

97.2

76

Western Michigan

97.4

96.5

96.9

96.9

77

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

78

Buffalo

95.7

96.4

97.2

96.4

79

Louisiana Tech

96.1

96.3

96.2

96.2

80

Western Kentucky

95.5

96.0

96.7

96.1

81

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

82

Utah St.

95.6

95.2

95.7

95.5

83

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

84

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

85

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

86

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

87

Army

92.8

93.0

92.0

92.6

88

Southern Miss.

92.7

92.0

92.7

92.5

89

Marshall

91.9

91.6

92.4

92.0

90

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

91

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

92

Liberty

90.6

91.9

91.0

91.1

93

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

94

Arkansas St.

90.5

91.0

90.4

90.6

95

Miami (Ohio)

90.6

89.9

91.0

90.5

96

Central Michigan

89.6

90.2

90.6

90.1

97

Nevada

89.8

91.1

89.1

90.0

98

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

99

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

100

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

101

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

102

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

103

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

104

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

105

Florida Int’l.

88.6

88.4

88.6

88.5

106

Eastern Michigan

88.1

88.3

88.6

88.4

107

Georgia St.

88.2

89.0

87.2

88.1

108

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

109

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

110

U A B

86.6

88.2

87.2

87.3

111

Charlotte

87.0

87.3

87.6

87.3

112

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

114

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

115

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

116

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

117

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

118

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

119

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

120

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

121

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

122

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

123

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

124

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

125

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

126

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

127

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

128

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

129

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.7

111.2

112.2

111.7

6-2

10-3

Cincinnati

108.3

107.9

108.5

108.2

7-1

11-3

Temple

96.9

96.8

98.0

97.2

5-3

8-5

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

2-6

4-8

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

1-7

4-8

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

0-8

2-10

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

110.0

110.1

110.7

110.3

7-1

12-2

Navy

102.9

105.1

104.4

104.1

7-1

11-2

SMU

102.4

102.3

103.0

102.6

6-2

10-3

Tulane

100.6

100.8

101.2

100.9

3-5

7-6

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

2-6

4-8

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

2-6

4-8

AAC Averages

97.0

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

139.0

137.5

140.2

138.9

8-0

14-1

Florida St.

104.7

104.4

104.6

104.6

4-4

6-7

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.2

102.9

4-4

8-5

Louisville

102.0

101.5

102.2

101.9

5-3

8-5

Boston College

99.5

99.0

99.6

99.4

4-4

7-6

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

2-6

5-7

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

1-7

4-8

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia Tech

110.4

110.2

110.8

110.5

5-3

8-5

North Carolina

110.2

110.1

110.9

110.4

4-4

7-6

Virginia

108.1

107.9

108.5

108.2

6-2

9-5

Miami (Fla.)

102.3

101.8

102.6

102.2

4-4

6-7

Pittsburgh

102.1

101.5

101.9

101.8

4-4

8-5

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

3-5

5-7

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

2-6

3-9

ACC Averages

104.5

103.9

104.6

104.3

 

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

121.1

120.5

120.8

120.8

8-1

12-2

Baylor

117.3

117.1

116.4

116.9

8-1

11-3

Texas

113.6

113.9

113.5

113.7

5-4

8-5

Iowa St.

111.6

111.7

111.2

111.5

5-4

7-6

Kansas St.

111.1

111.1

110.9

111.0

5-4

8-5

Oklahoma St.

110.4

110.8

109.8

110.3

5-4

8-5

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

3-6

5-7

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

2-7

4-8

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

3-6

5-7

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

1-8

3-9

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.7

109.0

109.4

 

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

141.3

140.2

142.0

141.2

9-0

13-1

Michigan

124.2

122.6

124.3

123.7

6-3

9-4

Penn St.

121.5

120.8

121.8

121.4

7-2

11-2

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

5-4

8-5

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.8

107.1

4-5

7-6

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

1-8

3-9

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

0-9

2-10

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

122.6

122.5

123.0

122.7

7-2

10-4

Iowa

120.1

118.8

119.9

119.6

6-3

10-3

Minnesota

118.4

118.0

118.0

118.1

7-2

11-2

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

3-6

5-7

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

3-6

4-8

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

1-8

3-9

Illinois

101.2

101.6

100.7

101.2

4-5

6-7

Big Ten Averages

111.4

110.7

110.9

111.0

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

103.7

103.9

105.0

104.2

7-1

11-3

Western Kentucky

95.5

96.0

96.7

96.1

6-2

8-5

Marshall

91.9

91.6

92.4

92.0

6-2

8-5

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

3-5

4-8

Florida Int’l.

88.6

88.4

88.6

88.5

4-4

6-7

Charlotte

87.0

87.3

87.6

87.3

5-3

7-6

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

0-8

1-11

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

96.1

96.3

96.2

96.2

6-2

10-3

Southern Miss.

92.7

92.0

92.7

92.5

5-3

7-6

U A B

86.6

88.2

87.2

87.3

6-2

9-5

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

3-5

4-8

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

3-5

3-9

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

3-5

4-8

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

0-8

1-11

CUSA Averages

87.0

87.5

87.3

87.3

 

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

122.1

121.4

122.5

122.0

x

11-2

BYU

101.9

102.1

101.2

101.7

x

7-6

Army

92.8

93.0

92.0

92.6

x

5-8

Liberty

90.6

91.9

91.0

91.1

x

8-5

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

x

2-10

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

x

1-11

Indep. Averages

89.9

90.6

89.6

90.1

 

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

98.4

97.8

98.9

98.4

5-3

7-6

Buffalo

95.7

96.4

97.2

96.4

5-3

8-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.6

89.9

91.0

90.5

6-2

8-6

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

5-3

6-6

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

2-6

3-9

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

0-8

0-12

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.4

96.5

96.9

96.9

5-3

7-6

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

4-4

5-7

Central Michigan

89.6

90.2

90.6

90.1

6-2

8-6

Eastern Michigan

88.1

88.3

88.6

88.4

3-5

6-7

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

4-4

5-7

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

3-5

6-6

MAC Averages

86.9

86.6

87.1

86.9

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Air Force

105.8

107.5

106.9

106.7

7-1

11-2

Boise St.

105.7

106.1

106.0

105.9

8-0

12-2

Wyoming

99.7

101.4

100.1

100.4

4-4

8-5

Utah St.

95.6

95.2

95.7

95.5

6-2

7-6

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

3-5

4-8

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

0-8

2-10

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

100.1

101.7

100.1

100.6

5-3

10-3

Hawaii

97.0

98.3

96.4

97.2

5-3

10-5

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

2-6

4-8

Nevada

89.8

91.1

89.1

90.0

4-4

7-6

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

2-6

5-7

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

2-6

4-8

MWC Averages

93.8

95.2

93.8

94.3

 

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

122.1

122.0

122.9

122.3

8-1

12-2

Washington

115.5

115.2

116.4

115.7

4-5

8-5

Washington St.

108.8

108.1

108.7

108.5

3-6

6-7

California

104.7

104.7

105.3

104.9

4-5

8-5

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

4-5

5-7

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

3-6

4-8

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.8

120.9

122.4

121.7

8-1

11-3

U S C

109.3

109.7

109.9

109.7

7-2

8-5

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.4

108.0

4-5

8-5

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

3-6

5-7

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

4-5

4-8

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

2-7

4-8

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.0

107.5

107.3

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.5

124.9

126.7

126.0

7-1

12-2

Florida

125.1

122.8

124.9

124.2

6-2

11-2

Kentucky

112.5

111.6

112.0

112.0

3-5

8-5

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

5-3

8-5

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

3-5

6-6

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

3-5

4-8

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-7

3-9

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

142.1

140.5

142.9

141.8

8-0

15-0

Alabama

130.2

127.4

130.7

129.4

6-2

11-2

Auburn

121.7

119.9

121.2

120.9

5-3

9-4

Texas A&M

115.0

112.5

113.2

113.6

4-4

8-5

Mississippi St.

108.0

104.9

111.0

108.0

3-5

6-7

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

2-6

4-8

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

0-8

2-10

SEC Averages

114.1

112.4

113.9

113.5

 

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

109.1

108.7

108.3

108.7

7-1

13-1

Georgia Southern

97.9

98.0

97.5

97.8

5-3

7-6

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

3-5

5-7

Georgia St.

88.2

89.0

87.2

88.1

4-4

7-6

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

2-6

5-7

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

103.0

103.1

102.6

102.9

7-1

11-3

Arkansas St.

90.5

91.0

90.4

90.6

5-3

8-5

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

4-4

5-7

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

2-6

3-9

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

1-7

2-10

SBC Averages

90.8

91.4

90.3

90.8

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.5

2

Big Ten

111.0

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.3

5

Atlantic Coast

104.3

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.3

8

Sun Belt

90.8

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conference USA

87.3

11

Mid-American

86.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 7, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 8, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:40 pm

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl & Playoff Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Marshall]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Central Florida

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Wyoming

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Navy

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Arizona St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Tulane

Southern Miss.

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Boston College

[Eastern Michigan]

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

[Air Force]

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Texas

Cotton

At-large

At-large

[Penn St.]

Memphis

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Florida Atlantic

[Liberty]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

California

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

Tennessee

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Texas A&M

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

Washington

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Florida Int’l.]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Alabama

Michigan

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Florida St.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Miami (O)

Nevada

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Kent St.]

Utah St.

Lending Tree

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Louisiana

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

LSU

Oklahoma

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Clemson

LSU

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Spread

Saturday

December 14

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Navy

Army

6.2

8.3

8.2

Game played in Philadelphia

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

141.7

140.8

142.5

141.7

2

Clemson

140.1

138.5

141.5

140.0

3

L S U

137.6

135.7

138.0

137.1

4

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

5

Georgia

126.3

124.5

126.4

125.7

6

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

7

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

8

Utah

124.3

123.4

124.9

124.2

9

Oklahoma

123.1

122.7

122.9

122.9

10

Wisconsin

122.7

122.6

123.1

122.8

11

Oregon

122.0

121.9

122.8

122.2

12

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

13

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

14

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

15

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

16

Baylor

117.5

117.5

116.7

117.2

17

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

18

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

19

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

20

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

21

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

22

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

23

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

24

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

25

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

26

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

27

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.1

110.5

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

30

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

31

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

32

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

33

Appalachian St.

109.4

108.9

108.6

109.0

34

Virginia

107.3

107.2

107.6

107.4

35

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

36

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

37

Boise St.

108.1

108.5

108.4

108.3

38

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

39

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

40

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

41

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

42

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

43

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

44

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.1

105.8

45

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

46

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

47

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

49

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

50

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

51

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

52

Louisiana

103.1

103.4

102.8

103.1

53

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

54

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

55

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

56

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

57

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

58

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

59

Florida Atlantic

101.3

101.5

102.6

101.8

60

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

61

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

62

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

63

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

64

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

65

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

66

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

67

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

68

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

69

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

70

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

71

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

72

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

73

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

74

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

75

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

76

Hawaii

96.8

98.1

96.0

97.0

77

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

78

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

79

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

80

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

81

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

82

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

83

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

84

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

85

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

86

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

87

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

88

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

89

Central Michigan

92.1

92.7

93.1

92.6

90

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

91

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

93

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

94

Miami (Ohio)

90.5

89.6

90.8

90.3

95

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

96

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

97

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

98

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

99

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

100

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

101

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

102

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

103

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

104

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

105

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

106

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

107

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

108

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

109

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

110

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

111

U A B

86.3

88.0

86.9

87.1

112

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

114

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

115

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

116

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

117

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

118

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

119

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

120

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

121

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

122

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

123

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

124

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

125

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

126

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

127

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

128

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

129

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.1

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.5

4

Pac-12

107.5

5

Atlantic Coast

104.7

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conf. USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.1

PiRate Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Oklahoma

5

Georgia

6

Utah

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Boise St.

3

Appalachian St.

4

Florida Atlantic

5

Miami (O)

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

6-2

9-3

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.1

105.8

7-1

10-3

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

5-3

8-4

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

2-6

4-8

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

1-7

4-8

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.1

110.5

7-1

12-1

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

6-2

10-2

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

7-1

9-2

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

3-5

6-6

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

2-6

4-8

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

2-6

4-8

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

140.1

138.5

141.5

140.0

8-0

13-0

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

4-4

6-6

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

4-4

8-4

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

4-4

6-6

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

5-3

7-5

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

2-6

5-7

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

1-7

4-8

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

5-3

8-4

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

4-4

6-6

Virginia

107.3

107.2

107.6

107.4

6-2

9-4

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

4-4

6-6

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

4-4

7-5

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

3-5

5-7

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

2-6

3-9

ACC Averages

104.6

104.0

104.7

104.4

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.1

122.7

122.9

122.9

8-1

12-1

Baylor

117.5

117.5

116.7

117.2

8-1

11-2

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

5-4

7-5

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

5-4

8-4

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

5-4

7-5

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

5-4

8-4

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

3-6

5-7

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

2-7

4-8

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

3-6

5-7

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

1-8

3-9

Big 12 Averages

109.6

110.0

109.3

109.6

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

141.7

140.8

142.5

141.7

9-0

13-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

6-3

9-3

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

7-2

10-2

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

5-4

8-4

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

4-5

6-6

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

1-8

3-9

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

0-9

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

122.7

122.6

123.1

122.8

7-2

10-3

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

6-3

9-3

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

7-2

10-2

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

3-6

5-7

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

3-6

4-8

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

1-8

3-9

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

4-5

6-6

Big Ten Averages

111.4

110.8

110.9

111.0

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

101.3

101.5

102.6

101.8

7-1

10-3

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

6-2

8-4

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

6-2

8-4

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

4-4

6-6

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

3-5

4-8

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

5-3

7-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

0-8

1-11

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

6-2

9-3

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

5-3

7-5

U A B

86.3

88.0

86.9

87.1

6-2

9-4

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

3-5

4-8

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

3-5

3-9

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

3-5

4-8

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

0-8

1-11

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

x

10-2

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

x

7-5

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

x

5-7

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

x

7-5

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

x

2-10

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

x

1-11

Indep. Averages

89.8

90.5

89.4

89.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

5-3

6-6

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

5-3

7-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.5

89.6

90.8

90.3

6-2

8-5

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

5-3

6-6

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

2-6

3-9

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

0-8

0-12

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

5-3

7-5

Central Michigan

92.3

93.1

93.5

92.9

6-2

8-5

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

4-4

5-7

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

3-5

6-6

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

4-4

5-7

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

3-5

6-6

MAC Averages

87.0

86.7

87.2

87.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

108.1

108.5

108.4

108.3

8-0

12-1

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

7-1

10-2

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

4-4

7-5

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

6-2

7-5

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

3-5

4-8

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

5-3

9-3

Hawaii

96.8

98.1

96.0

97.0

5-3

9-5

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

2-6

4-8

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

4-4

7-5

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

2-6

5-7

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

2-6

4-8

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.6

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

122.0

121.9

122.8

122.2

8-1

11-2

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

4-5

7-5

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

3-6

6-6

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

4-5

7-5

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

4-5

5-7

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

3-6

4-8

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

124.3

123.4

124.9

124.2

8-1

11-2

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

7-2

8-4

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

4-5

7-5

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

3-6

5-7

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

4-5

4-8

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

2-7

4-8

Pac-12 Averages

107.4

107.2

107.7

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.3

124.5

126.4

125.7

7-1

11-2

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

6-2

10-2

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

3-5

7-5

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

5-3

7-5

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

3-5

6-6

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

3-5

4-8

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-7

3-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

137.6

135.7

138.0

137.1

8-0

13-0

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

6-2

10-2

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

5-3

9-3

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

4-4

7-5

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

3-5

6-6

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

2-6

4-8

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

0-8

2-10

SEC Averages

114.1

112.2

113.8

113.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

109.4

108.9

108.6

109.0

7-1

12-1

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

5-3

7-5

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

4-4

7-5

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

3-5

5-7

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

2-6

5-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

103.1

103.4

102.8

103.1

7-1

10-3

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

5-3

7-5

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

4-4

5-7

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

2-6

3-9

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

1-7

2-10

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 24, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:48 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Akron

Ohio

-27.7

-27.1

-29.3

Northern Illinois

Western Michigan

-9.4

-9.2

-9.0

 

 

Thursday

November 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Mississippi St.

Ole Miss

3.7

1.2

7.5

 

 

Friday

November 29

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas

Missouri

-20.0

-17.5

-19.7

Ball St.

Miami (O)

1.4

2.0

1.1

Buffalo

Bowling Green

27.4

28.6

29.1

Central Florida

South Florida

24.1

22.7

24.1

Central Michigan

Toledo

5.0

5.7

5.7

Colorado St.

Boise St.

-18.1

-15.0

-18.0

Eastern Michigan

Kent St.

3.3

3.6

3.3

Memphis

Cincinnati

7.2

7.9

8.2

Nebraska

Iowa

-9.5

-7.8

-10.2

South Alabama

Arkansas St.

-13.9

-11.7

-14.0

TCU

West Virginia

10.3

12.6

11.2

Texas

Texas Tech

6.6

6.5

7.0

Troy

Appalachian St.

-13.8

-12.7

-14.5

Virginia

Virginia Tech

-1.7

-1.8

-2.5

Washington

Washington St.

2.2

2.4

2.6

 

 

Saturday

November 30

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Air Force

Wyoming

7.8

7.7

8.3

Arizona St.

Arizona

12.6

12.5

13.6

Auburn

Alabama

-5.0

-3.7

-5.9

Coastal Carolina

Texas St.

10.9

11.6

11.3

Duke

Miami (Fla.)

-4.6

-5.0

-6.1

East Carolina

Tulsa

-6.6

-5.9

-7.9

Florida

Florida St.

22.5

20.0

22.1

Florida Atlantic

Southern Miss.

6.6

7.7

7.3

Georgia Southern

Georgia St.

7.3

6.2

7.5

Georgia Tech

Georgia

-34.6

-34.0

-34.5

Hawaii

Army

4.6

5.7

4.3

Houston

Navy

0.9

-0.5

1.8

Illinois

Northwestern

4.6

6.4

6.1

Kansas

Baylor

-14.0

-13.1

-13.3

Kansas St.

Iowa St.

-0.4

-1.2

-0.7

Kentucky

Louisville

9.2

8.1

8.1

Liberty

New Mexico St.

16.5

15.7

16.8

Louisiana

UL-Monroe

19.5

19.3

19.7

Louisiana Tech

Texas-San Antonio

20.7

19.1

20.5

LSU

Texas A&M

16.0

15.2

16.6

Marshall

Florida Int’l.

6.3

6.3

7.2

Michigan

Ohio St.

-9.6

-9.9

-10.1

Michigan St.

Maryland

18.6

18.8

19.7

Minnesota

Wisconsin

1.3

1.3

0.9

Nevada

UNLV

8.8

8.8

8.7

New Mexico

Utah St.

-14.8

-12.0

-16.7

North Carolina St.

North Carolina

-10.4

-11.2

-11.6

North Texas

UAB

0.3

-2.1

-0.4

Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma

-10.2

-8.8

-10.0

Old Dominion

Charlotte

-12.0

-12.2

-12.6

Oregon

Oregon St.

20.2

19.2

21.2

Penn St.

Rutgers

42.0

41.6

43.5

Pittsburgh

Boston College

5.9

6.0

6.1

Purdue

Indiana

-4.7

-3.9

-5.1

San Diego St.

BYU

-2.5

-1.0

-2.4

San Jose St.

Fresno St.

-3.4

-2.6

-3.4

SMU

Tulane

6.7

5.9

6.5

South Carolina

Clemson

-27.0

-26.9

-29.2

Stanford

Notre Dame

-15.5

-15.4

-16.3

Syracuse

Wake Forest

-0.6

-0.7

-1.8

Temple

Connecticut

30.4

27.2

32.2

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

19.4

20.7

20.4

UCLA

California

-1.9

-1.9

-2.7

Utah

Colorado

31.2

30.4

31.8

UTEP

Rice

-12.2

-9.6

-11.5

Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee

8.1

9.5

9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

2

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

3

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

4

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

5

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

6

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

7

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

8

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

9

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

10

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

11

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

12

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

13

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

14

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

15

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

16

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

17

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

18

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

19

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

20

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

21

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

22

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

23

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

24

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

25

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

26

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

27

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

31

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

32

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

33

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

34

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

35

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

36

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

37

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

38

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

39

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

40

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

41

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

42

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

43

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

44

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

45

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

46

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

47

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

48

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

49

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

50

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

51

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

52

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

53

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

54

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

55

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

56

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

57

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

58

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

59

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

60

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

61

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

62

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

63

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

64

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

65

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

66

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

67

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

68

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

69

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

70

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

71

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

72

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

74

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

75

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

76

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

77

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

78

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

79

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

80

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

81

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

82

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

83

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

84

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

85

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

86

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

87

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

88

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

89

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

90

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

91

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

93

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

94

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

95

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

96

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

97

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

98

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

99

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

100

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

101

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

102

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

103

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

104

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

105

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

106

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

107

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

108

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

109

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

111

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

112

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

113

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

114

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

115

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

116

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

117

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

118

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

119

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

122

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

123

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

124

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

125

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

126

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

127

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

128

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

129

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

ACC Averages

104.8

104.2

105.0

104.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.5

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

Indep. Averages

90.0

90.7

89.7

90.1

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.3

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.4

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

Pac-12 Averages

107.5

107.2

107.7

107.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

SEC Averages

113.8

112.0

113.5

113.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.1

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.5

4

Pac-12

107.5

5

Atlantic Coast

104.7

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conf. USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6

1

Ohio St.

2

LSU

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Appalachian St.

5

Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

————————————–

The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Miami (O)

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Marshall]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

[Nevada]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Utah

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Ky.

TCU

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Central Michigan]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

California

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Florida Int’l.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Utah St.

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Eastern Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 17, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:58 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

Ohio

-19.2

-18.6

-19.6

Northern Illinois

Eastern Michigan

7.8

7.0

7.7

 

 

Wednesday

November 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo

Toledo

7.2

7.6

7.9

Miami (O)

Akron

28.6

27.9

30.7

 

 

Thursday

November 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

North Carolina St.

-1.4

-2.0

-0.8

 

 

Friday

November 22

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wyoming

Colorado St.

13.6

12.2

13.5

 

 

Saturday

November 23

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Texas St.

32.6

31.4

33.0

Arizona

Utah

-26.6

-25.9

-27.9

Arizona St.

Oregon

-12.5

-13.4

-13.7

Arkansas St.

Georgia Southern

-3.2

-3.0

-3.3

Baylor

Texas

4.9

4.7

4.3

Charlotte

Marshall

-5.1

-4.4

-5.6

Cincinnati

Temple

10.3

10.4

9.5

Colorado

Washington

-14.7

-14.5

-15.9

Connecticut

East Carolina

-10.7

-9.3

-12.1

Florida Int’l.

Miami (Fla.)

-21.9

-21.8

-23.4

Fresno St.

Nevada

9.6

8.9

10.1

Georgia

Texas A&M

12.9

12.8

14.3

Georgia St.

South Alabama

18.7

17.2

18.5

Hawaii

San Diego St.

1.8

1.5

1.0

Indiana

Michigan

-11.4

-10.9

-11.7

Iowa

Illinois

17.8

15.2

18.0

Iowa St.

Kansas

22.7

22.2

23.3

Kent St.

Ball St.

0.0

0.4

0.5

Louisiana

Troy

9.2

8.9

9.8

Louisville

Syracuse

0.9

1.5

1.6

LSU

Arkansas

47.1

45.0

48.0

Maryland

Nebraska

-2.8

-4.4

-3.4

Massachusetts

BYU

-43.3

-42.0

-44.6

Middle Tennessee

Old Dominion

17.3

16.1

16.8

Missouri

Tennessee

3.4

1.0

3.2

Navy

SMU

-4.8

-2.2

-4.6

New Mexico

Air Force

-22.0

-21.4

-24.2

New Mexico St.

UTEP

8.7

6.8

8.1

Northwestern

Minnesota

-14.6

-15.4

-16.0

Notre Dame

Boston College

19.4

18.6

19.2

Ohio St.

Penn St.

19.8

20.0

21.3

Oklahoma

TCU

18.4

15.3

17.6

Rice

North Texas

-4.9

-3.6

-5.7

Rutgers

Michigan St.

-21.5

-20.8

-21.9

South Florida

Memphis

-13.6

-12.8

-14.3

Southern Miss.

Western Kentucky

6.8

4.8

5.6

Stanford

California

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

Texas Tech

Kansas St.

-1.6

-1.1

-2.3

Tulane

Central Florida

-9.5

-8.1

-9.6

Tulsa

Houston

0.6

0.7

0.1

UAB

Louisiana Tech

-4.4

-2.6

-4.1

UL-Monroe

Coastal Carolina

1.4

0.5

0.9

UNLV

San Jose St.

-2.5

-3.0

-3.3

USC

UCLA

12.2

12.9

13.2

Utah St.

Boise St.

-3.6

-4.3

-2.9

UTSA

Florida Atlantic

-19.8

-18.1

-21.3

Virginia

Liberty

18.6

17.4

18.3

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

5.0

5.3

5.6

Wake Forest

Duke

6.2

6.2

6.5

Washington St.

Oregon St.

15.1

13.3

15.7

West Virginia

Oklahoma St.

-5.8

-6.7

-6.0

Wisconsin

Purdue

19.5

19.4

20.0

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Alabama

Western Carolina

56

Auburn

Samford

49

Kentucky

UT-Martin

29

Mississippi St.

Abilene Christian

35

North Carolina

Mercer

38

Vanderbilt

East Tennessee

21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

2

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

3

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

4

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

5

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

8

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

9

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

10

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

11

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

12

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

13

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

14

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

15

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

16

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

17

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

18

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

19

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

20

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

21

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

22

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

23

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

24

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

25

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

27

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

28

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

29

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

30

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

31

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

33

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

34

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

35

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

36

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

37

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

38

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

39

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

40

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

41

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

42

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

43

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

45

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

46

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

47

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

48

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

49

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

50

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

51

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

52

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

53

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

54

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

55

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

56

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

57

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

58

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

59

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

60

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

61

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

62

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

63

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

64

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

65

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

67

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

68

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

69

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

70

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

71

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

72

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

74

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

75

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

79

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

80

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

82

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

83

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

84

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

85

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

86

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

87

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

88

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

89

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

90

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

91

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

92

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

93

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

94

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

95

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

98

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

99

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

101

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

102

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

103

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

104

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

105

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

106

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

107

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

108

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

109

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

111

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

112

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

114

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

115

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

116

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

118

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

119

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

122

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

124

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

125

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

126

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

128

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

129

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

130

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

6-0

9-1

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

4-2

7-3

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

2-4

4-6

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

5-1

9-1

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

5-1

9-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

3-3

6-4

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

5-1

7-2

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

1-5

3-7

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

97.0

97.7

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

8-0

11-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

4-4

6-5

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

3-3

7-3

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

3-4

5-5

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

1-5

4-6

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

4-3

6-4

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

1-5

4-6

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

4-3

6-4

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

5-2

7-3

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

5-2

7-3

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

3-4

4-6

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

4-2

7-3

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

2-5

4-6

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

1-6

2-8

ACC Averages

105.0

104.4

105.3

104.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

6-1

9-1

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

4-3

6-4

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

6-1

9-1

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

4-3

6-4

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

4-3

7-3

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

3-4

6-4

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

3-4

5-5

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

2-5

4-6

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

2-5

4-6

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

1-6

3-7

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

7-0

10-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

5-2

8-2

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

6-1

9-1

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

4-3

7-3

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

2-5

4-6

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

0-7

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

5-2

8-2

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

6-1

9-1

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

4-3

7-3

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

4-3

6-4

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

2-5

4-6

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

0-7

2-8

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

5-1

7-3

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

4-2

6-4

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

2-4

3-7

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

5-1

7-3

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

5-1

8-2

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

4-2

7-3

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

3-3

4-6

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

1-5

1-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

3-3

4-6

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

0-7

1-9

CUSA Averages

86.5

87.1

86.9

86.8

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

x

8-2

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

x

6-4

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

x

5-6

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

x

1-9

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

x

1-10

Indep. Averages

89.9

90.5

89.6

90.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

3-3

5-5

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

3-3

4-6

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

5-1

6-4

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

3-3

4-6

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

2-4

3-7

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

0-6

0-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

5-2

7-4

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-3

4-6

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

3-3

4-6

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

5-2

7-4

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

3-3

6-4

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

2-4

5-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.9

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

6-0

9-1

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

5-1

8-2

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

5-1

6-4

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

3-3

6-4

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

3-3

4-6

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

5-2

8-2

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

4-3

7-4

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

2-4

4-6

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

1-5

4-6

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

3-3

6-4

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

1-6

2-8

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.5

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

7-0

9-1

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

2-5

5-5

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

2-5

5-5

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

3-5

4-6

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

4-3

5-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

6-1

9-1

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

6-2

7-4

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

2-5

5-5

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

4-3

4-6

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-5

4-6

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6-1

9-1

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

7-2

9-2

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

3-3

5-5

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

2-4

5-5

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

3-5

5-5

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

3-5

4-7

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

6-0

10-0

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

6-1

9-1

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

4-3

7-3

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

4-2

7-3

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

2-5

4-6

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

2-5

4-7

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

113.7

111.9

113.5

113.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

5-1

9-1

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

4-2

6-4

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

3-3

5-5

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

3-3

6-4

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

1-5

4-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

5-1

8-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

4-2

6-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

3-3

4-6

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

2-4

3-7

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

0-6

1-9

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.0

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.9

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.0

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.8

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

SMU

5

Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgia could be headed to the playoffs if they both win out, and then Georgia pulls off a mild upset in the SEC Championship Game. There is also a small chance that Alabama could sneak back into the picture if LSU beats Georgia, and then Alabama thrashes Auburn on The Plains to show the Committee that losing Tua Tagovailoa didn’t weaken the Tide enough to knock them out of the Playoff picture. Either way, there is a decent chance that the SEC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially if Oklahoma loses another game and Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12.

Alabama and Florida are almost assured of receiving New Year’s Six Bowl Bids, and if Alabama sneaks into the Playoffs, then Georgia will replace the Tide in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Citrus bowl would then take Auburn. Texas A&M is almost a cinch to go to the Texas Bowl this year, where some backroom deals are being made to place Texas in there as a dream match-up. Tennessee is one win away from a possible destination in Jacksonville in the Gator Bowl, while Kentucky needs only to beat UT-Martin this week to earn a trip to a possible Outback Bowl game against a possible neighboring rival.

At this point, there are no more happy guarantees for the great SEC. Mississippi State is going to beat Abilene Christian this weekend to get to 5-6, but then they must turn around and face Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day, while the Rebels get this week off to prepare an extra few days. The way the two teams are playing presently, Ole Miss looks like the superior team, so we will count out Mississippi State at 5-7.

Missouri is 5-5, and the Tigers still have to play Arkansas, so even though they have lost four consecutive games, Mizzou is going to be 6-6. The Tigers are still in limbo with the NCAA. While Missouri is on probation and has a bowl ban, their legal team has filed an appeal, and the NCAA has yet to rule on it and might not rule on it until after bowl bids have been issued. It looks like the NCAA is going to turn the other cheek to help the SEC out, and then rule after the bowl season on the matter, or they could rule that Missouri has done enough in-house corrections to get a reprieve. Then, again, there is a lot of dissension going on in Columbia, and the school may choose to close up shop after the Arkansas game and self-impose on taking a meaningless bowl game at 6-6.

The SEC has agreements with 11 bowls not including the Playoffs. If two SEC teams make the Playoffs, then the SEC will have the need for 13 bowl eligible teams and will most likely have eight or nine bowl eligible teams. If Maalox wants to create a nice promotion, they will send free cases of their product to the members of the Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls, and possibly the Belk Bowl.

With the possibility of some really weak bowl match-ups, you can expect this season to produce at least one if not two or three “backroom” deals to place better at-large teams in the bowls where the opponent is a Power Five team. A 9-3 Power Conference team playing a 6-6 Group of 5 team just cannot be allowed.

What you see in our Bowl Projections are the raw projections strictly following the bowl rules. As information leaks about potential back-room deals, we will try to stay on top of all the news and rumors.

Here is a conference by conference look at the bowl eligible teams and those that can still become bowl eligible.

American Athletic

Bowl Eligible: 7
Memphis, SMU, Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Temple

Still Alive: South Florida

If either Memphis or Cincinnati win out to capture the AAC Title, that team will head to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 best champion. SMU could also earn this bid if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, while the Mustangs win out, including beating Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Navy has a remote chance at getting to the Cotton Bowl. Memphis and SMU would both have to lose in the regular season, while Navy wins out and beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game, and Boise State would have to lose in the Mountain West.
South Florida merely has to beat Memphis and Central Florida to earn a bowl, so it isn’t going to be a Bulls Market this year.

Atlantic Coast (+ Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh

Still Alive: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, N. Carolina St., and Syracuse

Clemson has the best chance of any team of going 13-0 before the Playoffs, but we are starting to see just a little extra possibility that if Virginia Tech takes care of Pittsburgh and Virginia, the Hokies will be a little more formidable than the experts are given them credit for being. Va. Tech was dismissed for dead earlier in the season, but Justin Fuente has done an incredible job re-shaping the Hokie team to where they look like the second best team in the league. If Tech beats Pitt and Virginia, they will most likely be the Orange Bowl representative even if Clemson pounds them in the ACC Championship Game.

At this point, our forecast calls for North Carolina to top Mercer and NC State to finish 6-6 and grab the last bowl spot that goes to the ACC. We don’t see a path to 6-6 for the other teams still alive.

Big 12

Bowl Eligible: 6
Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St.

Still Alive: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The PiRate Ratings do not forecast Oklahoma to win out and sneak into the Playoffs, but don’t assume we are picking Baylor to get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have to go to Stillwater to face the much-improved Cowboys, and we believe Oklahoma St. has a very decent chance to pull off the upset and ruin the league’s chances to get into the Playoffs.

Of the teams still fighting for bowl eligibility, we believe TCU can beat West Virginia in Fort Worth to get their sixth win, but Tech and the Mountaineers might both be staring at 5-7 seasons.

Big Ten

Bowl Eligible: 7

Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Still Alive: Michigan St., Nebraska, Purdue

This is the most interesting race for the Playoffs and Bowl seeding. First, Ohio State must now close with wins against Penn State, Michigan, and the Western Division Champion in the Conference Championship Game to guarantee a Playoff spot. Only the Penn State game is in the Giant Horseshoe. We remember 50 years ago quite well, when an 8-0 Ohio State team that many were calling the greatest college football team since Army in 1945, went to the Big House to play a two-loss Michigan team that remembered being thrashed in Columbus the previous year. That Ohio State team was a double-digit favorite and got thrashed by a Michigan defense that played well over its potential that day.

Assuming Ohio State handles Penn State this weekend, could history repeat itself 50 years later? Of course, James Franklin has a history of getting underdog teams psyched up to win big road games, so the Nittany Lions could still be in the Big Ten Championship picture.

On the other side, Minnesota still controls its own destiny, but then so does Wisconsin. The Gophers did everything but beat Iowa in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes frequently win games at home with final stats that on paper look like they lost by a couple of touchdowns. The Gophers get Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

There is even a bizarre scenario where Illinois could win the West Division flag. This requires Minnesota to lose to Northwestern and Wisconsin; for Wisconsin to lose to Purdue, while the Illini beat Iowa and Northwestern. The chances for this to happen are about the same as Lovie Smith taking over Alabama for Nick Saban in 2020.

Michigan State is now 4-6, and the Spartans look like an offense from the days of one platoon football. Their defense has fallen apart with all the extra snaps it has had to face, but now Sparty catches a break. MSU closes with Rutgers and Maryland, so the Green and White have about a 95% chance of improving to 6-6 and getting a bottom tier bowl bid.

Nebraska is 4-6 with games remaining against Maryland and Iowa. We have a suspicion that Scott Frost will have his team prepared to face the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium and will pull off the upset to close at 6-6 and get the final bowl bid in this league.

Purdue must beat both Wisconsin and Indiana to get to 6-6, and by the time they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, their long snapper might be the backup quarterback. Better luck next year Boilermakers.

Because the Big Ten has the most strict bowl tie-ins, certain teams cannot go to certain bowls if they have been to them in the last five years. What this means is:

The Citrus Bowl will not invite Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State

The Outback Bowl will not invite Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Holiday Bowl will not invite Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Gator Bowl will not invite Iowa or Penn St.

The Pinstripe Bowl will not invite Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin

The Redbox Bowl will not invite Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, or Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl will not invite Minnesota

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss., UAB

Still Alive: Charlotte, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UTSA

Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, so it the Thundering Herd beat Charlotte and FIU, they will be East Division champs. In the West, Louisiana Tech controls their destiny, but if the Bulldogs lose to UAB, then Southern Miss can win out and take the division flag.

Of the teams still alive, Charlotte and North Texas have the best chances to get to six wins, while FIU and UTSA have close to zero chances to do so. Because this league could have eight bowl eligible teams, and they have just five primary tie-ins, two or three teams will get at-large invitations, and deals could be made to send better teams to at-large spots.

Independents (not Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 2
BYU, Liberty

Still Alive: Army

BYU has earned its guaranteed Hawaii Bowl bid with its sixth win. Liberty doesn’t have a primary bowl bid, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl. Since the AAC is likely to send its champion to the Cotton Bowl, the Cure Bowl bid could be there for Liberty.

Army must beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Navy to get to 7-6. We don’t see it happening this year.

Mid-American

Bowl Eligible: 4
Miami (O), Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive: Buffalo, Kent St., Ohio, Ball St., Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois

Not having a dominating team and having to play games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays have led to MACtion being one big season-long toss-up with a lot of parity. Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division title, as the Red Hawks hold all potential tiebreakers over Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St. The West is a different story as four teams are still technically alive. Western Michigan will win the division if the Broncos beat both Ohio and Northern Illinois, but both games are on the road, and we don’t believe WMU will go 2-0.

Central Michigan must win at Ball State and then beat Toledo at home and then hope that WMU loses to Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois and Toledo are still mathematically alive in the race but need multiple things to happen to sneak into the top spot in the West.

There are still six teams trying to become eligible, and by the time the regular season concludes, we believe the MAC will have eight bowl eligible teams with five teams at 6-6. Not all these 6-6 teams will have bowl spots available to them, but the MAC should receive at least one extra bowl invitation and possibly two.

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Utah St., Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St.

Still Alive: Colorado St., Fresno St., San Jose St.

Boise State must win out and hope for the AAC to implode and produce a two-loss league champion in order for the Broncos to ascend to the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. could be 12-1 and relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl. If that happens, and the Pac-12 has a 6-6 team available, there is a chance that a deal could be made to send the Pac-12 team east and bring a 10 or 11-win team like Appalachian State or SMU to Vegas. Or, Boise State could be sent east to play in a Liberty, Music City, or Belk Bowl where no SEC team is available.

Air Force is looking at 10-2 and another potential bad bowl match-up, and because the Falcons can basically bring the entire Academy, they can fill up a bowl stadium even if it’s 1,500 miles from Colorado Springs.

In the West, the winner of the San Diego State-Hawaii game this week gets to face Boise State with a chance for the big upset. Technically, Air Force and Utah State are still alive in the Mountain, but Boise State has to lose twice for that to happen.
Of the three teams still with a chance to become bowl eligible, Colorado State has to beat both Wyoming and Boise State, so the Rams are staying home for the holidays. Fresno State and San Jose State are looking at a season finale where they will face off in San Jose with probably 5-6 records. The Spartans look like the stronger team in November, so we’ll give SJSU the final bid.

Pac-12

Bowl Eligible: 4
Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah

Still Alive: California, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St. Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, UCLA

The entire conference is still alive for a bowl! That’s a blessing and a curse. There is so much parity that when USC beat Utah, they severely damaged this league’s chance to sneak a team into the Playoffs. Even if either Utah or Oregon wins out to finish 12-1, they are almost assuredly relegated to Pasadena and not to the Playoffs. Oregon dominated Auburn until the final few minutes to start the season, and that game is just as important as the Utah loss to the Trojans.

Of the eight remaining teams not yet bowl eligible, we believe that three will get to six wins. Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA don’t look like they have enough talent to win the games they must win to get to 6-6. Any 6-6 team in this league will be in a bowl.

Southeastern

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M

Still Alive: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi St.

See above for the explanation for the SEC. We believe nine teams will be bowl eligible, or eight if Missouri either self-imposes a bowl ban, or the NCAA denies their appeal before December.

Sunbelt

Bowl Eligible: 5
Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St.. Arkansas St., Louisiana

Still Alive: Coastal Carolina, Troy, UL-Monroe

It will take a monumental chain of events for Appy State and Lousiana not to meet in the SBC Championship Game. Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Troy all still hold miniscule division title hopes in the East, while Arkansas St. and UL-Monroe are still mathematically alive in the West.

This is the only conference where we don’t see an additional team still alive becoming bowl eligible.

This Week’s Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Nevada]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Central Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Ball St.

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

California

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Western Kentucky

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Central Florida

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Charlotte]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Wake Forest

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Marshall

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Eastern Michigan]

Virginia

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[North Texas]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Hawaii

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Alabama

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[UAB]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Older Posts »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.