PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 5, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Colorado	Stanford	5.3
Fairfield	Iona	-6.9
Manhattan	Rider	-4.0
Marist	Canisius	0.5
Michigan	Ohio St.	-0.1
Nebraska	Penn St.	-2.8
Quinnipiac	Mount St. Mary’s	11.0
Richmond	Fordham	3.0
Saint Joseph’s	La Salle	5.8
Seton Hall	DePaul	11.5
Siena	Niagara	7.4
Southern Illinois	Missouri St.	3.8
Temple	Houston	-12.4
Tulsa	Wichita St.	-5.0
Utah	California	16.5
Wisconsin	Northwestern	2.2

PiRate Picks For September 16-17, 2022

That broken clock finally failed to show the correct time on the PiRate Ship. Last week, our five picks came in at 1-4, dropping our profit for the season to $1,211.77 ($1,311.77 left in the imaginary account).

We’re back to where we normally are in September. Usually, when we have a bad week, our saving grace in the past has been Money Line Parlays playing at +140 or higher odds. We had a tough time finding one really good parlay this week. While we like odds in the range of +140 to +180, we couldn’t find the right number of games to make this range work out. We also don’t like to play more than three games in a parlay, so it came down to going with 3 at more than +200 or go to five bigger favorites to get to +155 and change.

We also tend to like to play an odd number of games to eliminate the .500 record that results in a small loss. Of course, when one of those selections is a parlay that pays different than the straight 11-10 odds, a .500 record could be a winning week if one of those wins is the parlay.

Our selections this week are all about the numbers more than the actual teams playing. Without further adieu, here are our selections for the week. Remember: We never wager real money on our picks, and we highly suggest that you follow our lead.

Selection 1: Wyoming +14 1/2 vs. Air Force

This is a nice rivalry game, and the last time the margin of this game exceeded 14 points was 2013. Wyoming’s schedule has been considerably stronger than Air Force’s, as Illinois and Tulsa are both stronger than Colorado. Craig Bohl teams tend to be stronger against the run than the pass, so this looks like a good play to be on the side where the top four margins by frequency come with it (3, 7, 10, and 14 points represent the final margin in 1/4 of all college football games).

Selection #2: Wyoming & Air Force Under 46 1/2

For the same reasons above, this game appeals to us for the total. We think this game is more like a 20-17 game, which falls well under 46 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Maryland -2 1/2 vs. SMU

The PiRates really prefer to go with underdogs that we believe should be favorites, but there were no short ‘dogs this week that really jumped off the page. We believe that Maryland is better than a touchdown stronger than SMU. Game outcomes of 1 and 2 points occur just 5.9% of the time, and that includes 5.9% of the time that the favorite and the underdog win by 1 or 2.

Selection #4: Northern Illinois -2 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

Ditto the game above. Except, Vanderbilt exposed itself by showing its real weakness last week against Wake Forest. The Huskies were somewhat shocked by Tulsa in week one, but they should rebound in week two.

Selection #5: Nebraska and Oklahoma Under 66 1/2

What do you get when you combine a defensive genius head coach coaching in his third ever game against a big rival with a coach making his debut when a few days ago, he was an assistant coach? Usually, you get a hard-fought game that tends to be a little more defense-oriented. The Cornhuskers should play their best game of the season for interim coach Mickey Joseph, while the Sooners may play it a bit more conservatively. An OU win similar to last year’s game, which ended with 39 total points scored.

Selection #6: California and Notre Dame Over 40 1/2

Notre Dame last started a season 0-3 in 2007. Before Irish fans jump out of buildings, they were 0-2 in 2011 with a loss to a weak South Florida team and proceeded to win eight of their next nine games. Cal isn’t the best defensive team in the land, even though the Bears are only giving up 13.5 points per game so far. UC-Davis and UNLV are not offensive juggernauts.

If this game ends 21-20, it beats the total by a half-point. Notre Dame and Marshall combined for 47 points, and Cal’s offense is better than Marshall’s.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay at +204.42

Penn State over Auburn

Texas A&M over Miami (Fla.)

North Carolina St. over Texas Tech

Auburn barely beat a mediocre San Jose State team last week. A weaker Penn State team than this year’s squad defeated a stronger Auburn team than this year’s squad last year.

If Texas A&M loses again this week, Jimbo Fisher might be sharing a beer with Scott Frost the following Saturday somewhere outside of a football stadium.

Texas Tech’s win over Houston is getting a lot more accolades than it probably should have gotten. N.C. State’s narrow escape over East Carolina probably got too much as well. This is still a Wolf Pack team capable of winning the ACC Title.

PiRate Ratings College Football for August 27, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	4.9	5.8	5.9
Hawaii	Vanderbilt	-9.1	-8.8	-6.4
Illinois	Wyoming	22.0	20.0	19.1
Nebraska (n)	Northwestern	10.4	9.3	11.3
New Mexico St.	Nevada	-9.7	-9.5	-10.3
Utah St.	Connecticut	20.9	19.8	25.1
UTEP	North Texas	0.8	1.2	-0.3

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Western Kentucky	Austin Peay	24.6
UNLV	Idaho St.	18.5
Florida St.	Duquesne	34.2
North Carolina	Florida A&M	29.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	130.5
2	Alabama	129.1
3	Ohio St.	128.3
4	Michigan	123.0
5	Clemson	120.0
6	Oklahoma	119.1
7	NC State	118.1
8	Michigan St.	117.7
9	Wisconsin	117.6
10	Oklahoma St.	117.5
11	Notre Dame	116.8
12	Utah	116.6
13	Purdue	115.9
14	Arkansas	115.3
15	Tennessee	115.1
16	Pittsburgh	115.0
17	Iowa	114.7
18	Miami (Fla.)	114.7
19	Penn St.	114.6
20	Texas A&M	114.3
21	Mississippi St.	113.9
22	Minnesota	113.6
23	Baylor	113.5
24	Kentucky	112.7
25	L S U	112.5
26	Ole Miss	112.2
27	BYU	111.5
28	Cincinnati	111.5
29	Oregon	111.3
30	Florida St.	111.3
31	Auburn	111.2
32	Louisville	111.0
33	Kansas St.	110.3
34	Texas	110.2
35	Maryland	110.0
36	Nebraska	109.8
37	U C L A	109.1
38	South Carolina	109.1
39	Iowa St.	108.7
40	North Carolina	108.0
41	T C U	107.8
42	Oregon St.	107.2
43	Texas Tech	106.7
44	Florida	106.7
45	Boise St.	106.0
46	U S C	105.9
47	Houston	105.5
48	Wake Forest	105.4
49	Washington	104.9
50	Syracuse	104.8
51	Arizona St.	104.5
52	UCF	104.4
53	Missouri	103.7
54	Virginia	103.6
55	Fresno St.	103.5
56	West Virginia	103.3
57	Illinois	102.6
58	Stanford	102.2
59	SMU	102.0
60	Washington St.	101.5
61	Air Force	101.4
62	Boston College	101.2
63	Indiana	100.9
64	Georgia St.	100.1
65	Rutgers	100.1
66	East Carolina	99.8
67	Virginia Tech	99.7
68	Northwestern	99.5
69	Army	99.0
70	California	98.3
71	N. Illinois	98.2
72	Tulane	98.2
73	U A B	98.1
74	Appal. St.	97.8
75	San Diego St.	97.7
76	Colorado	97.6
77	Kansas	97.3
78	W. Kentucky	97.2
79	Memphis	97.2
80	Liberty	97.0
81	Louisiana	96.9
82	U T S A	96.5
83	Utah St.	96.0
84	Tulsa	95.5
85	USF	95.4
86	Georgia Tech	95.0
87	Central Mich.	95.0
88	Toledo	94.5
89	Arizona	94.1
90	Coastal Car.	94.0
91	Miami (Ohio)	93.5
92	Western Mich.	93.1
93	Navy	92.2
94	Marshall	92.1
95	Troy	91.2
96	Vanderbilt	90.9
97	J. Madison	89.5
98	Old Dominion	89.4
99	Colorado St.	89.2
100	North Texas	88.9
101	Eastern Mich.	88.5
102	Kent St.	88.4
103	Nevada	87.7
104	U N L V	87.6
105	San Jose St.	87.4
106	Bowling Green	87.1
107	U T E P	86.9
108	Ga. Southern	86.6
109	Middle Tennessee	86.5
110	Florida Atlantic	86.1
111	Ohio	85.9
112	South Alabama	85.8
113	Southern Miss.	85.3
114	Wyoming	85.3
115	Ball St.	85.1
116	Buffalo	84.5
117	Duke	84.1
118	Charlotte	83.1
119	UL-Monroe	82.1
120	Temple	81.1
121	Texas St.	81.0
122	Arkansas St.	80.8
123	Rice	80.7
124	Louisiana Tech	80.4
125	New Mexico	80.2
126	Hawaii	79.3
127	Akron	78.5
128	Connecticut	77.1
129	New Mexico St.	75.4
130	Massachusetts	74.7
131	Florida Int’l.	67.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.3	110.4	112.9	111.5
Houston	105.1	104.8	106.6	105.5
UCF	103.9	104.6	104.7	104.4
SMU	102.3	101.4	102.4	102.0
East Carolina	99.6	99.2	100.5	99.8
Tulane	98.7	97.8	98.0	98.2
Memphis	97.1	97.6	97.0	97.2
Tulsa	95.9	94.9	95.8	95.5
USF	96.3	94.8	95.2	95.4
Navy	93.0	92.2	91.4	92.2
Temple	81.0	83.5	78.7	81.1
AAC	98.6	98.3	98.5	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.8	119.6	120.6	120.0
NC State	118.4	117.4	118.6	118.1
Florida St.	111.8	111.1	111.0	111.3
Louisville	111.8	110.6	110.8	111.0
Wake Forest	105.9	105.2	105.2	105.4
Syracuse	105.9	104.3	104.2	104.8
Boston College	100.6	102.6	100.3	101.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	116.0	114.7	114.3	115.0
Miami (Fla.)	115.2	113.8	115.0	114.7
North Carolina	108.1	108.3	107.6	108.0
Virginia	104.1	104.3	102.4	103.6
Virginia Tech	100.4	100.8	97.9	99.7
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.6	93.7	95.0
Duke	84.3	86.8	81.2	84.1
ACC	107.0	106.8	105.9	106.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.4	118.2	119.8	119.1
Oklahoma St.	118.3	116.4	117.7	117.5
Baylor	114.2	112.9	113.4	113.5
Kansas St.	111.2	109.8	110.0	110.3
Texas	111.2	110.0	109.5	110.2
Iowa St.	108.7	108.6	108.9	108.7
T C U	108.9	107.3	107.3	107.8
Texas Tech	107.1	105.6	107.5	106.7
West Virginia	103.8	103.6	102.5	103.3
Kansas	99.2	96.9	95.8	97.3
Big 12	110.2	108.9	109.2	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.7	126.7	129.6	128.3
Michigan	123.7	121.9	123.5	123.0
Michigan St.	119.0	117.4	116.8	117.7
Penn St.	115.1	114.6	114.1	114.6
Maryland	110.3	110.1	109.8	110.0
Indiana	102.1	101.5	99.1	100.9
Rutgers	101.4	100.5	98.3	100.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.1	117.4	117.1	117.6
Purdue	116.8	115.7	115.0	115.9
Iowa	115.9	114.4	113.9	114.7
Minnesota	113.7	113.1	114.1	113.6
Nebraska	110.2	110.2	109.1	109.8
Illinois	103.1	103.7	101.2	102.6
Northwestern	99.8	100.9	97.8	99.5
Big Ten	112.7	112.0	111.4	112.0
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	97.4	97.6	99.2	98.1
W. Kentucky	96.5	96.1	99.1	97.2
U T S A	97.2	95.4	96.7	96.5
North Texas	88.7	87.9	90.0	88.9
U T E P	87.0	86.5	87.2	86.9
Middle Tennessee	85.7	86.8	86.9	86.5
Florida Atlantic	85.4	87.3	85.7	86.1
Charlotte	83.0	84.0	82.4	83.1
Rice	81.3	80.7	80.2	80.7
Louisiana Tech	80.3	82.0	78.8	80.4
Florida Int’l.	67.1	70.2	65.4	67.6
CUSA	86.3	86.8	86.5	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	117.5	115.5	117.4	116.8
BYU	112.2	110.2	112.2	111.5
Army	98.6	99.3	99.2	99.0
Liberty	95.4	97.5	98.0	97.0
Connecticut	77.6	79.1	74.6	77.1
New Mexico St.	74.9	77.2	74.1	75.4
Massachusetts	75.3	76.0	72.7	74.7
Independents	93.1	93.5	92.6	93.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.6	94.6	94.4	93.5
Kent St.	87.4	90.2	87.7	88.4
Bowling Green	87.8	86.5	86.9	87.1
Ohio	84.3	87.0	86.5	85.9
Buffalo	83.1	85.8	84.8	84.5
Akron	78.3	79.3	77.9	78.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.9	98.3	98.4	98.2
Central Mich.	93.1	95.4	96.4	95.0
Toledo	93.5	94.7	95.4	94.5
Western Mich.	92.2	93.5	93.6	93.1
Eastern Mich.	88.4	89.0	88.1	88.5
Ball St.	84.7	86.0	84.8	85.1
MAC	88.5	90.0	89.6	89.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	105.0	107.0	106.0
Air Force	101.0	100.9	102.4	101.4
Utah St.	95.5	95.9	96.7	96.0
Colorado St.	88.6	89.9	89.1	89.2
Wyoming	84.0	86.7	85.1	85.3
New Mexico	80.4	81.1	79.1	80.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.3	102.6	104.6	103.5
San Diego St.	97.5	97.5	97.9	97.7
Nevada	87.1	89.2	86.9	87.7
U N L V	88.5	86.0	88.1	87.6
San Jose St.	86.9	87.3	88.0	87.4
Hawaii	78.6	80.1	79.4	79.3
MWC	91.5	91.8	92.0	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.5	115.0	118.4	116.6
Oregon	111.7	111.4	110.9	111.3
U C L A	108.6	108.5	110.2	109.1
Oregon St.	107.2	106.6	107.8	107.2
U S C	105.4	106.2	106.2	105.9
Washington	104.2	105.0	105.5	104.9
Arizona St.	104.1	104.1	105.4	104.5
Stanford	103.8	101.0	101.8	102.2
Washington St.	101.0	101.6	101.8	101.5
California	97.7	98.1	99.1	98.3
Colorado	98.5	96.7	97.7	97.6
Arizona	94.1	94.1	94.0	94.1
Pac-12	104.4	104.0	104.9	104.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	130.6	128.7	132.2	130.5
Tennessee	115.2	114.9	115.3	115.1
Kentucky	112.1	112.8	113.3	112.7
South Carolina	109.5	108.8	108.9	109.1
Florida	105.9	108.0	106.3	106.7
Missouri	104.0	104.1	103.0	103.7
Vanderbilt	91.1	92.3	89.3	90.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.0	127.7	130.6	129.1
Arkansas	115.9	113.9	116.1	115.3
Texas A&M	113.4	114.8	114.8	114.3
Mississippi St.	115.2	113.1	113.5	113.9
L S U	113.0	112.2	112.2	112.5
Ole Miss	113.4	111.4	111.8	112.2
Auburn	112.1	110.6	110.9	111.2
SEC	112.9	112.4	112.7	112.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia St.	99.3	98.5	102.6	100.1
Appal. St.	96.2	98.1	99.0	97.8
Coastal Car.	92.8	94.2	95.0	94.0
Marshall	91.4	92.8	92.1	92.1
J. Madison	87.2	89.1	92.1	89.5
Old Dominion	89.4	89.4	89.5	89.4
Ga. Southern	86.6	86.0	87.1	86.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	95.9	96.3	98.5	96.9
Troy	90.7	90.9	92.0	91.2
South Alabama	85.3	85.6	86.5	85.8
Southern Miss.	85.1	85.6	85.2	85.3
UL-Monroe	82.2	82.7	81.5	82.1
Texas St.	80.4	81.3	81.4	81.0
Arkansas St.	80.1	81.7	80.6	80.8
Sun Belt	88.8	89.4	90.2	89.5

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.7
2	Big Ten	112.0
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Atlantic Coast	106.6
5	Pac-12	104.4
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	93.1
8	Mountain West	91.8
9	Sun Belt	89.5
10	Mid-American	89.4
11	Conference USA	86.5

Big Ten Conference Preview

Will the Big Ten Conference become the Big Billion? Rumors from multiple sources indicate that this league is on the precipice of signing a TV and media rights package that will be north of a billion dollars. This deal does not include Notre Dame. Should the Irish end up in this league, the Big Ten will dwarf even the SEC in money paid out per school.

USC and UCLA are set to join the league in two years. Whether other teams join as well is anybody’s guess.

Both divisions this year figure to have competitive races. Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to win the East and the league overall, but there are multiple teams capable of upsetting the Buckeyes. Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are strong once again, and it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that at least one of these contenders upsets the Buckeyes.

Maryland has an easy out of conference schedule and has a good chance to gain bowl eligibility. Rutgers and Indiana will bring up the rear.

In the West, five different teams could contend for the division title. Purdue has the benefit of avoiding Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State from the East. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are all about equal in talent this year, while Nebraska could finally return to the plus side of .500. Illinois and Northwestern are one or more excellent recruiting classes away from being contenders.

Big Ten Preseason PiRate Ratings

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.6	126.6	129.5	128.2
Michigan	123.6	121.8	123.4	122.9
Michigan St.	118.9	117.3	116.7	117.6
Penn St.	115.0	114.5	114.0	114.5
Maryland	110.2	110.0	109.7	109.9
Indiana	102.0	101.4	99.0	100.8
Rutgers	101.3	100.4	98.2	100.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.0	117.3	117.0	117.5
Iowa	117.4	115.9	115.4	116.2
Purdue	116.7	115.6	114.9	115.8
Minnesota	113.6	113.0	114.0	113.5
Nebraska	110.1	110.1	109.0	109.7
Illinois	103.0	103.6	101.1	102.5
Northwestern	99.7	100.8	97.7	99.4
Big Ten	112.7	112.0	111.4	112.0

Preseason Official Big Ten Media Poll

		Votes
#	East	1st Place	Overall
1	Ohio St.	36	252
2	Michigan	0	203
3	Penn St.	0	169
4	Michigan St.	0	162
5	Maryland	0	104
6	Rutgers	0	60
7	Indiana	0	58
#	West	1st Place	Overall
1	Wisconsin	31	246
2	Iowa	3	198
3	Minnesota	2	162
4	Purdue	0	153
5	Nebraska	0	123
6	Illinois	0	65
7	Northwestern	0	61
	Championship	Overall
	Ohio St.	36

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

East	Conf.	Overall
Ohio St.	9-0	13-0
Michigan	8-1	11-1
Penn St.	6-3	8-4
Michigan St.	6-3	9-3
Maryland	3-6	6-6
Rutgers	1-8	3-9
Indiana	1-8	3-9
West	Conf.	Overall
Purdue	7-2	10-3
Wisconsin	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	6-3	9-3
Iowa	5-4	8-4
Nebraska	4-5	6-6
Northwestern	1-8	4-8
Illinois	0-9	3-9

PiRate Picks–October 9-10, 2021

Last week, time constraints limited this weekly feature to the bare minimum. We have plenty of time this week, so rather than just list the games we have chosen, there’s time to go a little more in-depth with our selections.

First, we made a minimal profit of imaginary revenue last week, as we hit on the long odds 4-game parlay at +372.50 with Texas beating TCU, Wake Forest beating Louisville, South Carolina beating Troy, and Oklahoma State holding on to edge Baylor.

This week presented us with numerous opportunities where certain factors triggered plays. We ended up trimming it to eight parlays, and all but one game coming on Saturday. We had one key Sunday game but could not find an NFL partner for the game, so it attached to other college games to give us the biggest odds of the week. Without further adieu, here are our picks for this week. Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, and we highly encourage you not to wager real money on these selections, unless you have other research that the information herein merely endorses.

Odds:	+153.06
Must Win	Opponent
Wake Forest	Syracuse
Baylor	West Virginia

This first parlay is cut and dry. We believe that the public is not all that high on the two favorites. Wake Forest is supposed to be weak most years, but Dave Clawson has the Demon Deacons creeping up on Clemson for best in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. Baylor came oh so close to knocking off Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week. Had they pulled that win off, the Bears might be approaching the Top 10. West Virginia has played a tough schedule in a short time, and we feel they might show some fatigue in this game.

Odds:	+155
Must Win	Opponent
UTSA	Western Kentucky

Obviously, this is not a parlay. It is one of four games where we are picking an underdog to win straight up. Western Kentucky is due to bounce after getting up and playing a close game at Michigan State, while UTSA has quietly started 5-0 with a Power 5 win.

Odds:	+160
Must Win	Opponent
Texas	Oklahoma

It hasn’t been often in the last 15 years that we went into the second weekend in October believing that Texas would beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma has been narrowly escaping with wins over mediocre competition. After getting pasted at Arkansas, Texas has begun to look like a team ready to compete for the Big 12 Championship Game. We consider this a tossup game, so we go with the better odds and the underdog.

Odds:	+160
Must Win	Opponent
Nebraska	Michigan

This is more of a system play. Nebraska won by more than 38 points in a conference game and now plays a conference home game the next week. In a high percentage of cases like this, the home team continues to play at the same top level it played the previous week. Additionally, Michigan is on the road for the second consecutive week in a key conference game. This has the look of a traditional upset.

Odds:	+161.90
Must Win	Opponent
San Jose St.	Colorado St.
Bowling Green	Akron

The key game here is the San Jose State-Colorado State game. We feel like the wrong team is favored. However, playing SJSU in a single game does not supply us with the odds we look for when playing Money Lines. So, we added the Bowling Green game to it to make a parlay that has fat payout odds. The betting public may not see how much the Falcons have improved this year, while Akron remains one of the five worst teams in the FBS.

Odds:	+188.93
Must Win	Opponent
Iowa	Penn St.
Tennessee	South Carolina
Arizona St.	Stanford

This is the first of three big-odds payouts we are playing this week. In the first game in this parlay, our ratings show Iowa at the present time to be good enough to run the table and make the Playoffs. Penn State looks like a 10-2 team destined to play on New Year’s Day in Florida. Kirk Ferentz may have his best team in Iowa City.

In the second leg of this parlay, Tennessee fits the same criteria that Nebraska faces. They won by 38 points against a conference opponent and play at home this week against another conference opponent. While South Carolina’s defense is considerably better than Missouri’s, their offense is not as sharp, and we believe Josh Heupel’s Vols are sitting on another great performance.

The third part of this parlay is simply a case where we believe Arizona State is clearly superior to Stanford on both sides of the ball and should win by double digits.

Odds:	+195.50
Must Win	Opponent
South Alabama	Texas St.
Kent St.	Buffalo
Wisconsin	Illinois

South Alabama looks to be 10-14 points better than Texas State, and when we saw the Money Line odds on this game, it was the first one that went into our play pool. Kent State has a score to settle with Buffalo. In the weird Covid year of 2020, The Golden Flashes only managed to get four games in the books. Buffalo was the last, and Kent State went into this game 3-0 and averaging 53 points per game. Buffalo was also 3-0. The Bulls hung 70 points on the Flashes. Kent State gets their revenge this week.

Wisconsin is the best 1-3 team in America. It is odd how many times unforced errors have hurt the Badgers in their three losses. The Badgers don’t particularly like their rival to the south, and we expect UW to win this game by a large margin.

Odds:	+241.12
Must Win	Opponent
Central Michigan	Ohio U
BYU	Boise St.
Carolina	Philadelphia

Finally, we come to our biggest odds play of the week. We only found one NFL game we wanted to play based on the Money Line odds, so we had to parlay the Carolina Panthers with a couple of college games.

While 2021 looks like a so-so year for Central Michigan, Ohio is in a state of flux after former coach Frank Solich retired during the Summer. The Bobcats are almost sleep-walking through games this year, which can be attributed to growing pains.

Boise State is a mere shell of its former self under Bryan Harsin. New coach Andy Avalos inherited 16 returning starters, but the Broncos never played up to their potential last year and appear to be repeating it this year. Maybe, they were just a bit overrated?

BYU has shown the world that they were more than just Zach Wilson last year. The Cougars’ defense is top notch, while the offense is a bit more deliberate this year, but it helps the defense perform even better. Other than the fact that the Cougars may be looking ahead a tad to next week’s game at Baylor, everything here looks like a BYU win.

Carolina should be a heavier favorite over Philadelphia. The loss to Dallas has been factored a bit too heavily. We like the Panthers solely because their Money Line odds are so favorable this week.

PiRate Ratings College Football September 12, 2021

Note: We want to thank all our fans that were part of the opening weekend introduction of the PiRate Ratings Pro Football Simulation Tabletop Game. We were overwhelmed by the number of orders you made for the salute to the American Football League.

If you are interested in knowing more about the game, click on the link below.

PiRate Football Game Info

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana	Ohio U	23.3	19.2	22.3
Louisville	Central Florida	0.3	1.1	-0.8
Illinois	Marylalnd	-14.3	-12.2	-11.2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	10.3	9.4	11.3
Michigan	Northern Illinois	20.3	23.5	24.3
Army	Connecticut	35.7	34.5	38.9
Massachusetts	Eastern Michigan	-15.9	-14.8	-16.5
Temple	Boston College	-22.4	-21.3	-22.0
West Virginia	Virginia Tech	9.7	9.1	8.3
Buffalo	Coastal Carolina	-8.7	-7.0	-9.9
Pittsburgh	Western Michigan	15.8	16.5	17.5
Oklahoma	Nebraska	25.6	22.5	24.0
Indiana	Cincinnati	-3.9	-3.1	-4.3
Texas A&M	New Mexico	35.3	35.9	36.9
Colorado	Minnesota	4.9	3.3	1.4
Wyoming	Ball St.	3.4	4.3	7.7
Kansas St.	Nevada	8.9	7.3	7.4
Notre Dame	Purdue	0.5	2.3	0.8
Clemson	Georgia Tech	26.7	27.1	29.6
Washington St.	USC	-12.8	-11.7	-14.6
Florida	Alabama	-13.3	-10.1	-13.9
Wake Forest	Florida St.	8.7	7.1	8.4
Iowa	Kent St.	26.4	23.9	29.4
Louisiana Tech	SMU	-4.5	-4.9	-7.0
Ohio St.	Tulsa	23.4	23.4	25.6
Kansas	Baylor	-15.1	-17.4	-19.6
Toledo	Colorado St.	16.5	16.3	15.3
Duke	Northwestern	-11.6	-10.3	-12.5
Arkansas	Georgia Southern	30.0	29.2	29.1
Memphis	Mississippi St.	-13.7	-13.3	-11.4
Washington	Arkansas St.	17.5	17.8	20.1
UTSA	Middle Tennessee	14.1	14.9	12.3
Liberty	Old Dominion	35.6	36.3	37.6
Marshall	East Carolina	5.0	6.0	4.4
Southern Miss.	Troy	-10.5	-9.1	-10.2
Texas Tech	Florida Int’l.	26.2	26.2	23.4
Georgia St.	Charlotte	14.2	12.3	12.0
San Diego St.	Utah	-6.1	-6.7	-6.5
Georgia	South Carolina	29.0	29.2	31.7
Penn St.	Auburn	-0.9	1.4	1.7
Air Force	Utah St.	10.3	9.0	11.1
North Carolina	Virginia	14.8	12.8	17.8
LSU	Central Michigan	12.5	14.9	14.8
North Texas	UAB	-8.8	-8.7	-8.9
Vanderbilt	Stanford	-14.2	-16.1	-14.9
Texas	Rice	33.2	31.3	32.0
Ole Miss	Tulane	14.3	15.6	12.6
Boise St.	Oklahoma St.	-2.7	-2.8	-0.9
BYU	Arizona St.	2.1	0.6	2.1
UNLV	Iowa St.	-32.7	-32.2	-33.9
UCLA	Fresno St.	18.1	16.2	15.8
Hawaii	San Jose St.	-3.5	-4.3	-2.2

This week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Kentucky	Chattanooga	30.2
Missouri	SE Missouri	29.4
Tennessee	Tennessee Tech	30.7
Syracuse	Albany	21.5
Rutgers	Delaware	23.5
Miami (O)	Long Island	25.5
Akron	Bryant	9.2
Appalachian St.	Elon	27.7
Oregon St.	Idaho	21.2
California	Sacramento St.	22.3
Bowling Green	Murray St.	5.2
Florida Atlantic	Fordham	27.4
Houston	Grambling	28.8
South Florida	Florida A&M	15.5
Texas St.	Incarnate Word	13.5
Oregon	Stony Brook	32.4
North Carolina St.	Furman	27.1
Louisiana-Monroe	Jackson St.	11.6
South Alabama	Alcorn St.	23.3
New Mexico St.	South Carolina St.	1.5
Arizona	Northern Arizona	16.3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	132.3
2	Georgia	128.5
3	Oklahoma	126.4
4	Clemson	121.7
5	Iowa St.	120.6
6	Ohio St.	119.5
7	Cincinnati	119.2
8	Auburn	118.2
9	Texas A&M	117.8
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Iowa	117.6
12	Florida	116.8
13	Penn St.	116.0
14	U S C	115.7
15	Wisconsin	114.7
16	T C U	114.4
17	Ole Miss	114.0
18	Texas	114.0
19	Oregon	113.5
20	Miami (Fla.)	113.4
21	U C L A	113.0
22	West Virginia	112.9
23	Indiana	112.4
24	Arkansas	112.3
25	Arizona St.	111.7
26	L S U	111.4
27	Utah	110.5
28	BYU	110.3
29	Maryland	109.6
30	Oklahoma St.	109.5
31	Coastal Carolina	109.1
32	Michigan	108.6
33	Purdue	108.6
34	Notre Dame	108.3
35	NC State	108.1
36	Kentucky	108.0
37	Mississippi St.	108.0
38	Louisiana	106.9
39	Virginia Tech	106.9
40	Wake Forest	106.8
41	Liberty	106.8
42	Oregon St.	106.3
43	Missouri	106.2
44	Colorado	106.2
45	Michigan St.	106.1
46	Minnesota	106.0
47	Washington	105.6
48	Virginia	105.6
49	Kansas St.	105.4
50	Nebraska	105.3
51	Stanford	105.1
52	Baylor	104.9
53	Boston College	104.8
54	Boise St.	104.3
55	UCF	104.0
56	Pittsburgh	103.3
57	Texas Tech	102.9
58	Tulane	102.9
59	Appalachian St.	102.8
60	Northwestern	102.5
61	Tennessee	102.4
62	Army	102.1
63	Louisville	101.7
64	South Carolina	101.5
65	Florida St.	101.3
66	Houston	101.2
67	San Diego St.	101.1
68	Nevada	100.6
69	Rutgers	100.4
70	San Jose St.	100.4
71	Central Michigan	100.4
72	Washington St.	99.6
73	California	99.6
74	Fresno St.	99.3
75	Tulsa	98.4
76	Toledo	98.3
77	Miami (Ohio)	97.9
78	Buffalo	97.6
79	Wyoming	97.4
80	SMU	97.2
81	Air Force	97.0
82	U T S A	96.9
83	Georgia Tech	96.8
84	Marshall	96.7
85	Troy	95.4
86	Ball St.	95.3
87	Syracuse	94.9
88	East Carolina	94.6
89	Illinois	94.5
90	U A B	94.2
91	Kent St.	94.0
92	Memphis	93.7
93	Hawaii	93.1
94	Florida Atlantic	92.5
95	Arizona	92.2
96	Georgia St.	91.7
97	South Alabama	91.4
98	Eastern Michigan	91.0
99	Arkansas St.	90.1
100	Utah St.	89.8
101	Western Michigan	89.7
102	Northern Illinois	88.9
103	Louisiana Tech	88.7
104	Duke	88.5
105	Ohio	88.3
106	USF	88.2
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Vanderbilt	87.0
109	Western Kentucky	86.2
110	Middle Tennessee	86.1
111	Georgia Southern	85.9
112	Colorado St.	85.3
113	Rice	84.8
114	New Mexico	84.8
115	U N L V	84.7
116	Navy	84.6
117	Kansas	84.5
118	Southern Miss.	83.4
119	North Texas	82.4
120	Charlotte	80.9
121	Florida Int’l.	80.6
122	Temple	80.4
123	U T E P	76.6
124	UL-Monroe	75.6
125	Akron	75.2
126	UMass	72.8
127	Bowling Green	72.4
128	Old Dominion	72.3
129	New Mexico St.	69.4
130	Connecticut	67.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.0	118.0	120.6	119.2
UCF	103.6	102.5	105.9	104.0
Tulane	102.7	101.4	104.5	102.9
Houston	101.6	100.2	101.9	101.2
Tulsa	98.4	98.6	98.1	98.4
SMU	96.5	97.5	97.6	97.2
East Carolina	94.6	93.7	95.4	94.6
Memphis	92.9	93.5	94.7	93.7
USF	88.6	87.7	88.3	88.2
Navy	85.1	84.3	84.5	84.6
Temple	79.6	81.1	80.4	80.4
AAC Averages	96.6	96.2	97.4	96.8

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.6	121.0	123.3	121.7
NC State	108.6	107.8	108.0	108.1
Wake Forest	107.2	106.0	107.3	106.8
Boston College	104.5	104.9	104.9	104.8
Louisville	101.4	101.0	102.6	101.7
Florida St.	101.0	101.4	101.4	101.3
Syracuse	95.4	95.2	94.2	94.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.7	116.8	119.7	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	113.8	112.5	114.1	113.4
Virginia Tech	107.8	106.4	106.4	106.9
Virginia	104.9	106.9	104.9	105.6
Pittsburgh	102.9	103.9	103.3	103.3
Georgia Tech	96.9	96.9	96.7	96.8
Duke	88.5	89.8	87.3	88.5
ACC Averages	105.0	105.0	105.3	105.1

Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	127.6	125.0	126.5	126.4
Iowa St.	121.1	119.3	121.4	120.6
T C U	114.9	113.6	114.6	114.4
Texas	115.0	113.0	113.9	114.0
West Virginia	114.5	112.6	111.6	112.9
Oklahoma St.	110.0	109.6	108.8	109.5
Kansas St.	105.8	105.8	104.7	105.4
Baylor	105.5	105.1	104.1	104.9
Texas Tech	102.9	103.7	102.1	102.9
Kansas	87.3	84.7	81.6	84.5
Big 12 Averages	110.5	109.2	108.9	109.5

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	118.8	119.0	120.8	119.5
Penn St.	114.7	115.8	117.4	116.0
Indiana	112.0	111.9	113.3	112.4
Maryland	111.0	109.3	108.3	109.6
Michigan	107.8	108.9	109.2	108.6
Michigan St.	106.5	106.1	105.8	106.1
Rutgers	99.4	101.6	100.2	100.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	117.0	116.5	119.4	117.6
Wisconsin	114.1	114.0	116.0	114.7
Purdue	108.4	107.8	109.6	108.6
Minnesota	104.9	106.0	107.3	106.0
Nebraska	105.0	105.5	105.5	105.3
Northwestern	102.6	102.5	102.3	102.5
Illinois	94.2	94.6	94.7	94.5
Big Ten Averages	108.3	108.6	109.3	108.7

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	96.7	96.7	96.9	96.7
Florida Atlantic	91.4	93.3	92.7	92.5
Western Kentucky	85.2	87.0	86.4	86.2
Middle Tennessee	85.7	85.5	87.1	86.1
Charlotte	80.1	81.1	81.5	80.9
Florida Int’l.	79.7	80.5	81.7	80.6
Old Dominion	72.0	72.6	72.2	72.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	96.8	97.4	96.5	96.9
U A B	94.5	94.2	93.9	94.2
Louisiana Tech	89.0	89.6	87.6	88.7
Rice	84.8	84.7	84.9	84.8
Southern Miss.	82.6	84.2	83.4	83.4
North Texas	82.7	82.4	82.0	82.4
U T E P	77.0	77.7	75.1	76.6
CUSA Averages	85.6	86.2	85.9	85.9

FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
BYU	110.2	109.5	111.1	110.3
Notre Dame	107.4	108.6	108.9	108.3
Liberty	105.6	106.9	107.8	106.8
Army	102.0	102.0	102.3	102.1
UMass	74.2	73.6	70.6	72.8
New Mexico St.	69.8	70.6	67.8	69.4
Connecticut	68.3	69.5	65.4	67.7
Indep. Averages	91.1	91.5	90.6	91.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.7	97.4	96.6	97.9
Buffalo	98.2	97.2	97.4	97.6
Kent St.	93.6	95.5	93.0	94.0
Ohio	87.2	89.1	88.5	88.3
Akron	77.0	75.0	73.6	75.2
Bowling Green	73.0	73.4	70.9	72.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	101.1	99.8	100.2	100.4
Toledo	98.8	98.4	97.7	98.3
Ball St.	96.2	96.1	93.6	95.3
Eastern Michigan	92.7	90.9	89.5	91.0
Western Michigan	90.0	90.3	88.8	89.7
Northern Illinois	90.4	88.5	87.9	88.9
MAC Averages	91.5	91.0	89.8	90.8

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	103.8	104.8	104.3
Wyoming	96.7	97.3	98.3	97.4
Air Force	96.8	96.7	97.4	97.0
Utah St.	89.5	90.6	89.3	89.8
Colorado St.	85.3	85.1	85.4	85.3
New Mexico	85.0	85.3	84.0	84.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	101.5	100.9	100.9	101.1
Nevada	99.9	101.5	100.3	100.6
San Jose St.	100.9	101.0	99.4	100.4
Fresno St.	97.6	99.7	100.6	99.3
Hawaii	93.4	92.7	93.1	93.1
U N L V	85.5	84.2	84.6	84.7
MWC Averages	94.7	94.9	94.8	94.8

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	112.1	113.4	115.0	113.5
Oregon St.	106.2	106.1	106.5	106.3
Washington	104.6	105.9	106.3	105.6
Stanford	104.8	105.9	104.6	105.1
Washington St.	99.5	100.3	99.1	99.6
California	97.2	101.5	100.1	99.6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	115.2	115.0	116.7	115.7
U C L A	112.7	112.9	113.3	113.0
Arizona St.	111.1	112.0	112.0	111.7
Utah	110.6	110.6	110.4	110.5
Colorado	106.7	106.3	105.6	106.2
Arizona	92.8	92.0	91.8	92.2
Pac-12 Averages	106.1	106.8	106.8	106.6

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	127.9	127.9	129.9	128.5
Florida	116.0	117.9	116.6	116.8
Kentucky	107.4	109.2	107.5	108.0
Missouri	106.1	106.8	105.8	106.2
Tennessee	102.6	101.9	102.6	102.4
South Carolina	101.9	101.6	101.2	101.5
Vanderbilt	87.6	86.8	86.7	87.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	132.4	131.0	133.5	132.3
Auburn	118.6	117.4	118.7	118.2
Texas A&M	117.3	118.2	117.9	117.8
Ole Miss	113.9	114.0	114.1	114.0
Arkansas	112.8	112.5	111.5	112.3
L S U	110.5	111.7	112.0	111.4
Mississippi St.	108.1	108.3	107.5	108.0
SEC Averages	111.7	111.8	111.8	111.8

Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.8	107.1	110.3	109.1
Appalachian St.	102.2	101.9	104.4	102.8
Troy	95.1	95.4	95.7	95.4
Georgia St.	92.3	91.4	91.5	91.7
Georgia Southern	85.9	86.4	85.4	85.9
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	107.6	105.3	107.9	106.9
South Alabama	91.7	91.8	90.7	91.4
Arkansas St.	90.1	91.1	89.2	90.1
Texas St.	89.1	86.9	87.4	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.2	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.0	93.4	93.6	93.7

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.8
2	Big 12	109.5
3	Big Ten	108.7
4	Pac-12	106.6
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Mountain West	94.8
8	Sun Belt	93.7
9	Independents	91.1
10	Mid-American	90.8
11	Conference USA	85.9

Saturday’s TV Games of Interest

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 Noon

Indiana vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats could pick up some much needed schedule strength with a road win against the Hoosiers, although Indiana’s big loss to Iowa may not make a CU win all that influential to the Selection Committee down the road. As of this publication, it has not been decided if this will be the ABC or ESPN game.

Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina: Why do we call this important? Coastal Carolina has a chance to run the table for a second consecutive regular season, and this figures to possibly be their second toughest game on their schedule. If the Chanticleers win this one on the road, then possible a road game against Appalachian State on October 20 will be all that stands in CCU’s way of going 12-0 and competing for a NY6 Bowl. This game will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska: We don’t expect an exciting game in this one, but it marks a very important 50th anniversary. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, the number one Cornhuskers visited Norman to face the number two Sooners in the “Game of the Century.” We believe it was the game of the second half of the century, as the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game at Yankee Stadium was just as big.

On that great day 50 years ago, the lead changed hands three times with Nebraska tailback Jeff Kinney diving into the end zone late in the fourth quarter to give the ‘Huskers the 35-31 win. Oklahoma went on to the Sugar Bowl and destroyed a 9-1 Auburn team that had Heisman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan at quarterback. The final score was 40-22, but it was 40-6 before Coach Chuck Fairbanks emptied his bench.

Nebraska met undefeated Alabama in the Orange Bowl for the national title. The game was a blowout by halftime, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 win. Nebraska finished first in the polls, and Oklahoma finished #2. Colorado, which only lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma edged Alabama for #3, while the Tide fell to #4. This was the only time in history that the #1 team beat the #’s 2, 3, and 4 teams in a season.

As for this year’s game, Oklahoma should win by a lopsided score, but maybe Nebraska will play its best game under Coach Scott Frost and make it interesting. Catch this game on Fox.

West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies look strong enough defensively to compete with all their ACC brethren, while West Virginia is a work in progress under second year coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers are a different team at Mountaineer Field than they are on the road. This should be a stern test for Justin Fuente’s squad. This one airs on FS1.

3:30 PM

Florida vs. Alabama: Florida might have a bit of a quarterback controversy between starter Emory Jones and exciting backup Anthony Richardson. Jones tossed two interceptions against South Florida’s defense. Richardson ran for 115 yards and a touchdown on just four carries, and he was three for three for 152 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Alabama has no controversies. The Tide look unstoppable with what should be a rebuilding year. Can they manhandle the Gators in Gainesville? A 20+ – point win looks highly possible. This game is CBS’s first SEC game of the season.

7:30 PM

Penn St. vs. Auburn: This is Bryan Harsin’s first test as Auburn’s head coach. Penn State is not all the way back as a power, but playing them at Happy Valley is quite difficult. Expect a potentially lower scoring game, but it should be highly competitive and worth watching. It’s the ABC prime time game.

10:15 PM

BYU vs. Arizona St.: After dominating Utah Saturday night, this BYU team looks just as tough or even tougher in 2021 than it looked in 2020 with an All-American quarterback now starting for the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Arizona State has quietly started 2-0 with two creampuffs.

The Sun Devils have withstood some major accusations with potential illegal recruiting, so bad, that an insider has claimed that an incredible tell-all book about the transgressions would be a bestseller.

This figures to be ASU’s last chance for multiple seasons to make hay before their sun sets with numerous punishments, that is if the NCAA has any investigators remaining. This game airs on ESPN.

10:45 PM

UCLA vs. Fresno St.: After Saturday’s Oregon win at Ohio State, Fresno State’s close loss to the Ducks on September 4 looked a lot more impressive. The Bulldogs won’t be intimidated by the 2-0 Bruins, coming off a big win over LSU plus a week off.

UCLA didn’t need the week off after beating LSU at the Rose Bowl, but the Bruins won’t be hurt by the bye week. This should be an action-packed and exciting game, and Fresno State could still be there in the fourth quarter with a chance to win. Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

Wide Variety In Styles This Year

The up-tempo offenses of the recent decade have some new company with teams going the other way. The hurry-up no huddle teams are still to be found in great numbers. However, some coaches are killing the clock trying to play ball-control and taking all the time off the play clock between plays.

Here’s an exceptional case in point to show the extremes from yesterday. Central Michigan played ball-control yesterday against FCS opponent Robert Morris. They gave RMU just 38 scrimmage plays (30 runs and 8 passes). The total of 119 plays looked like a game from the 1950s. In Madison, WI, Eastern Michigan was also held to 38 plays and 92 total yards against the Badgers in a game that had just 113 total plays. Several additional games were limited to less than 130 scrimmage plays, something that has been a rarity in recent seasons. Troy and Liberty combined for just 114 scrimmage plays.

At the other extreme, Marshall did something rarely done in college football history. They ran 100 plays in their win over UNC Central. They gained 700 yards. Arkansas State just missed 100 with 99 plays; they scored 50 points against Memphis, and they lost! North Texas had 96 plays against SMU and scored just 12 points.

PiRate Picks For August 28, 2021

Welcome to all the newcomers to the PiRate Ratings site for the 2021-2022 football season. Saturday, we have the fortune of having a dress rehearsal for the college football season. Nine FBS teams will be in action, as one FBS team plays an FCS opponent.

The PiRate Ratings enjoy issuing picks against the spread or money line on Thursdays each week until January. Because we are most concerned with Money Line Parlays, there are only five options to combine games this week, and many of the books do not issue a line for FBS vs. FCS games. So, in a quest to obtain the best odds, there really are just four games.

This presents multiple issues that basically make it close to impossible to issue a real wager, because the options don’t fit our paradigm. Let’s take a look.

First, before we get started, you must know and understand one thing. We offer these selections purely for the fun of it. It is math and not gambling to us. We NEVER bet on sports. We play with a pretend bankroll that never runs out. We wager the same amount of fake currency on every selection–$100. It could just as easily be $5, $10, $1000, $5000, whatever, but $100 is an easy number and typical of many wagers in real life.

Second, we urge you with everything we can say about it to NOT use this weekly feature as betting advice, unless you have legitimate advice or are a professional, and then this becomes a secondary reference.

Third, we hunt around for the best possible odds on our pretend wagers. You may or may not be able to find the same odds we do, because you would have to search at the exact same time we do. Because, we are not limited to just the legal books available to us in our state of Tennessee, where betting is legal, we might pick a parlay based on a sports book that is only for people in Nevada, or New Jersey, or even off shore.

Okay, now that you know the ground rules, here is our specialty–Money Line Parlays. The money line is different from the spread of a game, but the number is the equivalent of a spread. If a team is favored by 7 points, their money line is going to be roughly -330, and if a team is a 7-point underdog, their money line is going to be roughly +250.

How does a Money Line work? If the line is a negative number, if you wager the amount of the negative number and win, you will receive $100 plus the amount you wagered. So, if you wager on a team at -300, and you bet $300, if the bet wins, you will get back $400 (your investment money plus $100). If you lose, you are out the $300. On the other hand, if the line is a positive number, you can win that amount of money with a $100 wager. So, if the line on a team is +300, you can wager $100, and if the team wins, you receive $400 (your investment money plus $300).

In Money Line wagers, all that matters is that the team you picked wins the game, be it by 1 point or 63 points. Obviously, if Alabama is playing Mercer, the odds are going to be such that to win $100, you will have to put up maybe $100,000. So, if you bet $100 on Alabama at -100000, when Alabama wins, you receive $100.01. Would you risk $100,000 to win one penny?

When you wager on more than one money line to win as one bet, this is called a parlay. Let’s say that you like Mississippi State to beat Arkansas and Oklahoma State to beat Texas Tech. Mississippi State’s money line number is -275. Oklahoma State’s money line number is -250. By combining these two wagers into one bet, with $100 riding on the outcome, instead of attempting to win a little more than $36 on MSU and $40 on OSU, by combining the two games into a parlay, you stand to win almost $91 if both teams win. If you bet them individually, you would only win $76, so by combining the two, you win $15 more. Of course, if one team wins and the other loses, your losses would be less by playing the games separately.

The question you most likely wanted to ask while reading the above paragraph is, “Why risk playing two separate games that both teams you selected must win and still not get even money?” Did you ask it? The answer to that question is, “You are correct; why wager $100 to just win $91 and then have to be right twice to cash it?” You can bet a regular game against the spread and get 11-10 odds, just a fraction better than the odds of the parlay above.

The ultimate answer is that we are only looking for parlays that pay better than even money. We really don’t want to play any parlays at less than +120 odds, where we would win $6 for every $5 wagered.

The next question you might have is, “Isn’t finding two teams to win and pay off at +120 going to require me to bet an underdog to win outright?”

Our answer to you is, “Yes, but we don’t look for many two-team money line parlays. Let’s take a look at another example with three teams.

Let’s say that we believe that Washington will beat Oregon State, and the money line is -260.

We also believe that Army will beat Temple, and the money line is -240.

And, we believe that Wisconsin will beat Purdue, and the money line is -250.

If you wager $100 on these three teams to win, and all three teams win, your payout is just under $175 plus the $100 you wagered for almost $275 ($274.62 to be exact.)

Let’s take a look at 5 wagers, where we win two and lose three at these odds

We bet $500 at $100 for 5 wagers.

On the two winning wagers, we receive $275 * 2 or $550.

Invest $500 and win $550 by being right 40% of the time. In one week, we have made a 10% return on an investment. What investment on the Stock Market makes a 10% gain in one week after you have paid the commissions on the trip?

Ah, but here’s the rub: how often can you wager on 5 money line parlays that average +175 and win 40% of the parlays? Most people fall into this trap and only win about one of five of these parlays. At 20% success, you lose $225 a week for a 45% loss. Now, where can you loses 45% in the stock market in one week? We put our real money in high-cap value stocks with durable competitive advantages, long histories of consistent increases in earnings, and long histories of consistent dividend payouts. The pretend money is just fine for football wagering.

By now, you want to know who we are picking in Week 0 of the college football season. Maybe, you have figured it out already. We don’t have any official picks this week, because there are not enough games to come up with a parlay better than +120.

Here is a practice parlay that is not an official pick, but shown here to show you what we mean.

The three games involved are: Nebraska versus Illinois, UCLA versus Hawaii, and UTEP versus New Mexico St.

Let’s say that we think Illinois will upset the Cornhuskers, UCLA will take care of Hawaii, and UTEP will win the big rivalry game.

Here are the three Money Lines for these three games.

Illinois +215 vs. Nebraska

UCLA -875 vs. Hawaii

UTEP -390 vs. New Mexico St.

This parlay calculates to +341. If we wager $100 on this game, and Illinois, UCLA, and UTEP all win, we receive $441 in our account (The $100 we wagered plus the $341 on the win).

Why isn’t this an official pick? We believe that Illinois might have been an excellent pick against the spread when the Illinois-Nebraska game spread opened at -9 1/2. But, it has come down to -6 1/2 as of this writing. Sharp money was wagers on Illinois +9 1/2, and also on Nebraska -6 1/2. A three-point middling is too good to be true. Playing both sides, the Sharps only need to have the game win both sides one out of every 19 times (5.26%) to make a profit. The spreads of 7, 8, and 9 account for 10.8% of all FBS college football games. That’s double the amount needed to make a profit. The key is the Sharps can find these spreads when they open. Also, playing the opening lines is the most effective way to win for a Sharp.

The UTEP-New Mexico State game is the biggest issue in this parlay. One axiom that older Sharps believe in is not to rely on a losing program to have to win for you to win. The Miners are probably a 3-9 team, which is almost a good year for this program. The Aggies are really weak and should be an underdog in every game, but this is their big rival, maybe bigger than playing New Mexico. The I-10 rivalry frequently is a tossup game.

Two out of three of these games are iffy. The chances that Illinois pulls off the upset of Nebraska are not good enough to have faith in this parlay winning. Scott Frost is in deep cow poo if the Cornhuskers don’t win at least six games and earn a bowl bid, and losing to the weakest Big Ten team will turn the heater on in his heated seat. This will be Bret Bielema’s first game as Illinois head coach, and he brought in an offensive coordinator that runs a system totally different from what the Illini ran under Lovie Smith. Expect growing pains.

We hope this gets you pumped for next week, when there will be more than enough games to play some parlays.

PiRate Ratings College Football For August 28

Monday, August 23, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Date:	August 28, 2021
Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Illinois	Nebraska	-3.8	-4.0	-3.4
UCLA	Hawaii	19.7	20.4	19.9
New Mexico St.	UTEP	-4.5	-4.7	-5.3
Fresno St.	Connecticut	20.2	21.1	26.5

FBS vs. FCS

FBS	FCS	PiRate
San Jose St.	Southern Utah	23.8

It’s called Week 0. Four FBS college football games will kick off the 2021 season. Included in the quartet of games is a Big Ten conference game with an old Big Ten coach returning to a new Big Ten school to face another coach that is sitting on a very hot seat.

On the West Coast, Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins host Hawaii, and a good showing with no injuries could set the Bruins up for a potential upset of LSU next week.

If you have followed our site so far this year, you have now seen the preseason ratings and predictions for all 130 FBS teams. Here are those ratings in full.

The PiRate Ratings for August 23

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	130.2
2	Oklahoma	128.1
3	Georgia	125.2
4	Iowa St.	124.8
5	Clemson	122.2
6	Ohio St.	121.9
7	U S C	119.4
8	Florida	118.2
9	Texas A&M	118.1
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Miami (Fla.)	116.9
12	Cincinnati	116.5
13	Auburn	116.1
14	T C U	116.0
15	Wisconsin	115.9
16	Texas	115.6
17	Indiana	115.5
18	Ole Miss	113.3
19	Arizona St.	113.1
20	Oklahoma St.	113.1
21	Penn St.	113.1
22	Iowa	112.8
23	Oregon	112.5
24	West Virginia	112.3
25	L S U	112.1
26	Washington	112.1
27	Utah	111.9
28	U C L A	110.5
29	Notre Dame	110.2
30	Mississippi St.	110.1
31	Arkansas	109.5
32	BYU	109.2
33	Louisiana	109.2
34	Coastal Carolina	108.4
35	Wake Forest	107.7
36	Kentucky	107.4
37	Maryland	107.2
38	Oregon St.	106.9
39	Missouri	106.4
40	Minnesota	106.1
41	NC State	106.1
42	Northwestern	105.8
43	Colorado	105.7
44	Liberty	105.5
45	Virginia Tech	105.3
46	Boston College	105.2
47	Michigan	104.9
48	Baylor	104.5
49	Kansas St.	104.4
50	Tennessee	104.0
51	Boise St.	103.9
52	Purdue	103.7
53	Florida St.	103.5
54	Nebraska	103.2
55	Michigan St.	103.0
56	Stanford	103.0
57	UCF	102.8
58	Virginia	102.7
59	Washington St.	102.5
60	Louisville	102.1
61	Texas Tech	101.9
62	Appalachian St.	101.0
63	South Carolina	100.8
64	Houston	100.7
65	San Jose St.	100.3
66	Pittsburgh	100.2
67	San Diego St.	100.2
68	Tulsa	100.1
69	Army	100.0
70	Miami (Ohio)	99.7
71	Central Michigan	99.7
72	Tulane	99.0
73	Nevada	98.8
74	Wyoming	98.5
75	California	98.4
76	Georgia Tech	98.2
77	Buffalo	98.0
78	Ball St.	97.4
79	Toledo	96.7
80	Air Force	96.5
81	Georgia St.	96.5
82	Illinois	96.4
83	Fresno St.	95.3
84	East Carolina	95.3
85	U A B	95.2
86	SMU	95.0
87	Rutgers	95.0
88	Arizona	94.6
89	Hawaii	94.6
90	U T S A	93.9
91	Ohio	93.5
92	Marshall	93.4
93	Troy	93.4
94	Memphis	93.2
95	Syracuse	92.9
96	Kent St.	91.7
97	Georgia Southern	91.6
98	Eastern Michigan	91.4
99	South Alabama	91.2
100	Western Michigan	91.0
101	USF	90.4
102	Navy	90.3
103	Vanderbilt	90.1
104	Arkansas St.	89.9
105	Duke	89.8
106	Colorado St.	89.0
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Florida Atlantic	87.7
109	Northern Illinois	87.5
110	Rice	87.1
111	Louisiana Tech	86.5
112	Utah St.	85.8
113	New Mexico	85.7
114	Kansas	85.4
115	U N L V	84.9
116	Southern Miss.	84.4
117	Middle Tennessee	83.7
118	Western Kentucky	82.7
119	North Texas	81.7
120	Temple	81.6
121	Akron	79.8
122	Charlotte	79.5
123	Florida Int’l.	79.0
124	Connecticut	76.7
125	U T E P	76.0
126	UL-Monroe	75.6
127	UMass	73.1
128	Old Dominion	71.4
129	Bowling Green	70.8
130	New Mexico St.	69.7

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	116.3	115.3	118.0	116.5
UCF	102.5	101.2	104.8	102.8
Houston	101.1	99.5	101.6	100.7
Tulsa	100.2	100.3	99.7	100.1
Tulane	98.8	97.5	100.6	99.0
East Carolina	95.3	94.3	96.2	95.3
SMU	94.3	95.4	95.4	95.0
Memphis	92.4	92.8	94.3	93.2
USF	91.0	89.7	90.6	90.4
Navy	90.8	90.0	90.3	90.3
Temple	80.6	82.4	81.9	81.6
AAC Averages	96.7	96.2	97.6	96.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.9	121.5	124.0	122.2
Wake Forest	108.0	106.7	108.3	107.7
NC State	106.5	105.8	105.9	106.1
Boston College	104.7	105.3	105.7	105.2
Florida St.	103.4	103.6	103.5	103.5
Louisville	101.7	101.4	103.2	102.1
Syracuse	93.7	93.1	92.1	92.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.4	116.7	119.9	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	117.1	116.1	117.7	116.9
Virginia Tech	106.4	104.9	104.7	105.3
Virginia	102.1	104.1	101.8	102.7
Pittsburgh	99.8	100.9	100.1	100.2
Georgia Tech	98.0	98.3	98.3	98.2
Duke	89.7	91.2	88.5	89.8
ACC Averages	104.9	105.0	105.3	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	129.3	126.7	128.2	128.1
Iowa St.	125.3	123.5	125.6	124.8
T C U	116.6	115.1	116.3	116.0
Texas	116.7	114.5	115.6	115.6
Oklahoma St.	113.5	113.2	112.5	113.1
West Virginia	113.8	112.0	111.1	112.3
Baylor	104.9	104.8	103.8	104.5
Kansas St.	104.9	104.7	103.5	104.4
Texas Tech	102.0	102.8	100.8	101.9
Kansas	88.1	85.6	82.5	85.4
Big 12 Averages	111.5	110.3	110.0	110.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Indiana	114.9	115.0	116.4	115.5
Penn St.	111.7	112.8	114.6	113.1
Maryland	108.7	106.9	105.8	107.2
Michigan	104.3	105.1	105.3	104.9
Michigan St.	103.5	103.0	102.5	103.0
Rutgers	94.1	96.3	94.5	95.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.2	115.2	117.3	115.9
Iowa	112.3	111.6	114.5	112.8
Minnesota	104.6	106.1	107.6	106.1
Northwestern	105.8	105.8	105.8	105.8
Purdue	103.6	102.9	104.5	103.7
Nebraska	102.8	103.4	103.3	103.2
Illinois	96.0	96.4	96.9	96.4
Big Ten Averages	107.0	107.3	108.0	107.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.8	110.6	111.2	110.2
BYU	109.2	108.2	110.3	109.2
Liberty	104.3	105.6	106.5	105.5
Army	100.0	99.8	100.2	100.0
Connecticut	77.4	78.6	74.2	76.7
UMass	74.8	74.0	70.5	73.1
New Mexico St.	70.3	71.1	67.6	69.7
Indep. Averages	92.1	92.6	91.5	92.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	101.9	99.2	98.1	99.7
Buffalo	98.5	97.5	97.9	98.0
Ohio	92.2	94.4	94.0	93.5
Kent St.	91.3	93.4	90.5	91.7
Akron	81.8	79.6	78.1	79.8
Bowling Green	71.6	72.1	68.8	70.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.5	99.1	99.5	99.7
Ball St.	98.4	98.3	95.5	97.4
Toledo	97.5	96.7	95.8	96.7
Eastern Michigan	93.1	91.2	89.8	91.4
Western Michigan	91.2	91.6	90.1	91.0
Northern Illinois	89.3	87.0	86.1	87.5
MAC Averages	92.3	91.7	90.4	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.9	103.3	104.3	103.9
Wyoming	97.7	98.4	99.5	98.5
Air Force	96.4	96.3	96.9	96.5
Colorado St.	88.8	88.8	89.3	89.0
Utah St.	85.6	86.6	85.2	85.8
New Mexico	85.8	86.2	85.2	85.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	100.8	101.1	99.0	100.3
San Diego St.	100.6	99.9	100.2	100.2
Nevada	98.4	99.7	98.4	98.8
Fresno St.	93.7	95.7	96.7	95.3
Hawaii	94.8	94.1	94.7	94.6
U N L V	85.8	84.3	84.6	84.9
MWC Averages	94.4	94.5	94.5	94.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.0	112.4	114.1	112.5
Washington	110.9	112.4	112.9	112.1
Oregon St.	106.7	106.7	107.3	106.9
Stanford	102.6	103.9	102.4	103.0
Washington St.	102.3	103.2	102.1	102.5
California	95.7	100.5	99.0	98.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	118.8	118.4	120.9	119.4
Arizona St.	112.4	113.5	113.6	113.1
Utah	111.8	112.1	111.8	111.9
U C L A	110.5	110.5	110.6	110.5
Colorado	106.4	105.8	104.9	105.7
Arizona	95.2	94.5	94.0	94.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.0	107.8	107.8	107.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	124.8	124.5	126.3	125.2
Florida	117.0	119.4	118.1	118.2
Kentucky	106.7	108.8	106.8	107.4
Missouri	106.2	106.9	106.2	106.4
Tennessee	104.1	103.1	104.6	104.0
South Carolina	101.1	101.0	100.4	100.8
Vanderbilt	90.9	89.9	89.6	90.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.4	128.8	131.3	130.2
Texas A&M	117.4	118.3	118.6	118.1
Auburn	116.4	115.2	116.6	116.1
Ole Miss	113.3	113.3	113.2	113.3
L S U	111.0	112.4	112.8	112.1
Mississippi St.	110.2	110.4	109.7	110.1
Arkansas	110.1	109.9	108.5	109.5
SEC Averages	111.4	111.6	111.6	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.2	106.4	109.6	108.4
Appalachian St.	100.5	100.0	102.5	101.0
Georgia St.	97.0	96.2	96.3	96.5
Troy	93.1	93.4	93.7	93.4
Georgia Southern	91.7	92.1	91.2	91.6
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.8	107.6	110.4	109.2
South Alabama	91.6	91.5	90.6	91.2
Arkansas St.	89.8	91.0	88.8	89.9
Texas St.	89.4	86.7	87.2	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.4	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.8	94.1	94.4	94.5

Conference Ratings
1	Southeastern	111.5
2	Big 12	110.6
3	Pac-12	107.5
4	Big Ten	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Sun Belt	94.5
8	Mountain West	94.5
9	Independents	92.1
10	Mid-American	91.4
11	Conference USA	84.4

The Big Ten Reverses Course

The Big Ten Conference has decided to resume football in 2020, reversing its decision to wait until the Winter/Spring of 2021. The league hopes to begin playing in late October and most likely play an 8-game schedule, concluding on December 19 with the Conference Championship Game.

This will pose big problems with the PiRate Ratings for two reasons, which I am sure the folks at Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Iowa, and Northwestern didn’t consider when considering whether or not to return.

The PiRate Ratings will have to recalculate to a 90-team environment from a 76-team environment. Our ratings use sample size in the algorithm and maintain a mean rating of 100.0 (or 100.0 is par value). By the time the Big Ten commences playing, other teams will have played as many as seven game, and their updating criteria will be quite different from the teams just starting play. Even though the Big Ten will be self-contained and play only inside its own environment, for ranking and rating purposes, these teams must be compared on the same par value, which means in order to re-install the Big Ten’s original preseason ratings, the other 76 teams will have to be recalculated, and to be quite honest, not only have we yet to cross that bridge, we cannot find it on a map!

In addition to the recalculation, we will have to create new formats on our spreadsheets and input the new algorithmic formulae for 90 teams (or 76 + however many Big Ten teams play).

Note to Pac-12, MWC, and MAC officials: if you plan on reconsidering your league paradigm this year, please make those decisions known by Noon Saturday!

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 10-14, 2019

Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!  That’s a saying that goes back to the 1960’s, when a certain PiRate Captain was in school trying to impress this really cute blonde-haired, blue-eyed tomboy classmate.  It so happened that she and he were outside on the playground, and he was trying to teach her how to hit foul shots on the basketball goal.  She kept barely missing on those foul shots, when he made this little ditty up as it came to mind.  And, voila!  The pretty girl made three shots in a row.  The rest is history.  In the 1970’s, This girl would go on to become the star of her high school basketball team, setting the all-time single-season and career scoring marks.  She then enjoyed a four-year career as a starting guard for a Division 1 college team, playing in the NCAA Tournament.

 

The Captain figured it wouldn’t hurt to repeat that mantra in hopes that it would turn around the recent misfortunes of the PiRate Ratings.  The ratings in recent weeks have been just barely missing.

How much do you pay for these selections?  Remember, you usually get what you pay for, and that’s what these selections have been worth this season.  So, let’s hope we get more luck this week.

Without further adieu, here are the selections you should avoid like the plague.

 

PiRate Rating Selections

 

10-point Teasers, 3-game parlays

 

#1

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Syracuse	NC St.	+14.5
Virginia	Miami	+12.5
New Mexico	Colorado St.	+13.5

 

 

#2

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Indiana	Rutgers	+38
Navy	Tulsa	+11
Texas	Oklahoma	+21.5

 

 

#3

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Temple	Memphis	+16
Nebraska	Minnesota	+17.5
Boise St.	Hawaii	-1.5

 

 

#4

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Eastern Michigan	Ball St.	+9
Central Michigan	New Mexico St.	Pk
Arizona St.	Washington St.	+11

 

 

#5

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Oregon St.	Utah	+23.5
Ole Miss	Missouri	+22
Ohio	Northern Illinois	+3.5

 

 

#6

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Baylor	Texas Tech	-1
Vanderbilt	UNLV	-4.5
Wisconsin	Michigan St.	-0.5

 

 

#7

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Florida	LSU	+23.5
Nevada	San Jose St.	+8
Alabama	Texas A&M	-6.5

 

 

#8

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tenn.	-0.5
UAB	UTSA	-2
Notre Dame	USC	-1

 

 

#9

Pick	Opponent	Spread
New England	N.Y. Jets	-6.5
Baltimore	Cincinnati	-1
Cleveland	Seattle	+12

 

 

#10

Pick	Opponent	Spread
New Orleans	Jacksonville	+11.5
Miami	Washington	+13.5
Arizona	Atlanta	+12.5

 

 

#11

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Denver	Tennessee	+7.5
Detroit	Green Bay	+14.5
Carolina	Tampa Bay	+8

 

 

Davey19  Selections

 

Pick	Opponent	Spread
UL-Monroe	Texas St.	-3
Virginia	Miami (Fla.)	+2.5
Colorado	Oregon	+21.5
Illinois	Michigan	+22.5
Nebraska	Minnesota	+8
Arkansas	Kentucky	+7
Air Force	Fresno St.	-3

Coming Friday–We will issue three money line selections, one an outright upset winner currently listed at +200, and two parlays.