The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 26, 2010

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Two

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game. 

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl

Detroit, MI

8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Toledo (8-4)  vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)

Vegas: Toledo by 1

Totals: 57

PiRate: Toledo by 3.3

Mean: Toledo by 2.8

Bias: Toledo by 16.8

100 Sims: Toledo 67  Florida International 33

Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6  Florida International 25.7

Outlier A: Toledo 49  Florida International 19

Outlier B: Florida International 37  Toledo 24

 

Monday, December 27

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

Air Force (8-4)  vs.  Georgia Tech (6-6)

Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½  

Totals: 56

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7

Mean: Air Force by 5.2

Bias: Air Force by 5.9

100 Sims: Air Force 55  Georgia Tech 45

Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2  Georgia Tech 26.9

Outlier A: Air Force 41  Georgia Tech 23

Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34  A Force 23

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

6:30 PM EST on ESPN

West Virginia (9-3)  vs. North Carolina State (8-4)

Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½

Totals: 49

PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8

Mean: West Virginia by 2.3

Bias: West Virginia by 3.0

100 Sims: West Virginia 53  North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)

Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8  North Carolina State 25.2

Outlier A: West Virginia 27  North Carolina State 10

Outlier B: North Carolina State 28  West Virginia 12

 

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM EST

Missouri (10-2)  vs.  Iowa (7-5)

Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½

Totals: 46 ½

PiRate: Even

Mean: Missouri by 4.1

Bias: Missouri by 12.6

100 Sims: Missouri 58  Iowa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6  Iowa 22.3

Outlier A: Missouri 31  Iowa 13

Outlier B: Iowa 21  Missouri 7

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl

Washington, D.C.

2:30 PM on EST

Maryland (8-4)  vs. East Carolina (6-6)

Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½

Totals: 68 ½

PiRate: Maryland by 18.4

Mean: Maryland by 11.2

Bias: Maryland by 13.8

100 Sims: East Carolina 51  Maryland 49

Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4  East Carolina 34.1

Outlier A: East Carolina 47  Maryland 31

Outlier B: Maryland 42  East Carolina 20

 

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

6:00 PM EST on ESPN

Baylor (7-5)  vs. Illinois (6-6)

Vegas: Baylor by 1

Totals: 62 ½

PiRate: Baylor by 2.4

Mean: Illinois by 1.6

Bias: Baylor by 6.9

100 Sims: Illinois 54  Baylor 46

Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1  Baylor 28.6

Outlier A: Illinois 34  Baylor 17

Outlier B: Baylor 28  Illinois 18

 

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM EST on ESPN

Oklahoma State (10-2)  vs. Arizona (7-5)

Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½

Totals: 66

PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1

Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1

Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6

100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61  Arizona 39

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0  Arizona 29.1

Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51  Arizona 27

Outlier B: Arizona 34  Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)

 

Thursday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U (7-6)  vs. Army (6-6)

Vegas: S M U by 7

Totals: 52

PiRate: S M U by 7.7

Mean: S M U by 3.2

Bias: S M U by 10.6

100 Sims: S M U 64  Army 36

Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2  Army 20.6

Outlier A: S M U 34  Army 10

Outlier B: Army 24  S M U 16

 

Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

3:20 PM EST

Syracuse (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 47 ½

PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5

Mean: Kansas State by 4.6

Bias: Syracuse by 2.3

100 Sims: Syracuse 53  Kansas State 47

Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1  Kansas State 18.6

Outlier A: Syracuse 24  Kansas State 7

Outlier B: Kansas State 17  Syracuse 3

 

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

6:30 PM EST

Tennessee (6-6)  vs. North Carolina (7-5)

Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½  

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8

Mean: North Carolina by 1.5

Bias: Tennessee by 6.6

100 Sims: Tennessee 50  North Carolina 50

Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5  North Carolina 23.9

Outlier A: Tennessee 30  North Carolina 14

Outlier B: North Carolina 27  Tennessee 12

 

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

10:00 PM EST

Nebraska (10-3)  vs. Washington (6-6)

Vegas: Nebraska by 14

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8

Mean: Nebraska by 11.5

Bias: Nebraska by 5.3

100 Sims: Nebraska 57  Washington 43

Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1  Washington 19.3

Outlier A: Nebraska 27  Washington 6

Outlier B: Washington 23  Nebraska 14

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

12:00 Noon EST

South Florida (7-5)  vs. Clemson (6-6)

Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½

Totals: 40 ½

PiRate: Clemson by 5.1

Mean: Clemson by 3.7

Bias: South Florida by 6.1

100 Sims: South Florida 58  Clemson 42

Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1  Clemson 19.2

Outlier A: South Florida 31  Clemson 12

Outlier B: Clemson 28  South Florida 16

 

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

2:00 PM EST on CBS

Notre Dame (7-5)  vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)

Vegas: Miami by 3

Totals: 47

PiRate: Miami by 6.3

Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2

Bias: Miami by 6.0

100 Sims: Notre Dame 52  Miami 48

Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4  Miami 23.2

Outlier A: Notre Dame 30  Miami 14

Outlier B: Miami 35  Notre Dame 14

 

Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST on ESPN

Central Florida (10-3)  vs. Georgia (6-6)

Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½

Totals: 55 ½

PiRate: Georgia by 12.8

Mean: Georgia by 5.3

Bias: Georgia by 11.3

100 Sims: Georgia 72  Central Florida 28

Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6  Central Florida 17.3

Outlier A: Georgia 38  Central Florida 10

Outlier B: Central Florida 24  Georgia 19

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM EST on ESPN

South Carolina (9-4)  vs. Florida State (9-4)

Vegas: South Carolina by 3

Totals: 55

PiRate: Florida State by 0.4

Mean: South Carolina by 0.5

Bias: Florida State by 1.6

100 Sims: Florida State 52  South Carolina 48

Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7  Florida State 26.6

Outlier A: Florida State 30  South Carolina 16

Outlier B: South Carolina 44  Florida State 17

 

Saturday, January 1

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U

Texas Tech (7-5)  vs. Northwestern (7-5)

Vegas: Texas Tech by 10

Totals: 60

PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5

Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3

Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6

100 Sims: Texas Tech 86  Northwestern 14

Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6  Northwestern 21.2

Outlier A: Texas Tech 45  Northwestern 17

Outlier B: Northwestern 30  Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)

 

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

1:00 PM EST on ABC

Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)

Vegas: Florida by 7 ½  

Totals: 48

PiRate: Florida by 13.2

Mean: Florida by 5.1

Bias: Florida by 5.5

100 Sims: Florida 54  Penn State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6  Penn State 19.8

Outlier A: Florida 28  Penn State 13

Outlier B: Penn State 21  Florida 10

 

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL

1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Michigan State (11-1) vs.  Alabama (9-3)

Vegas: Alabama by 10

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Alabama by 15.5

Mean: Alabama by 10.4

Bias: Alabama by 3.2

100 Sims: Alabama 59  Michigan State 41

Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6  Michigan State 24.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan State 12

Outlier B: Michigan State 35  Alabama 25

 

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM EST on ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4)  vs.  Michigan (7-5)

Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½

Totals: 61

PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3

Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3

Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8

100 Sims: Mississippi State 52  Michigan 48

Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7  Michigan 30.1

Outlier A: Mississippi State 38  Michigan 20

Outlier B: Michigan 36  Mississippi State 27

 

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

T C U (12-0)  vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

Vegas: T C U by 3

Totals: 58 ½

PiRate: T C U by 7.9

Mean: T C U by 5.8

Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6

100 Sims: Wisconsin 54  T C U 46

Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4  T C U 28.8

Outlier A: Wisconsin 40  T C U 24

Outlier B: T C U 34  Wisconsin 24

 

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma (11-2)  vs. Connecticut (8-4)

Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2

Totals: 55

PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7

Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2

Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7

100 Sims: Oklahoma 91  Connecticut 9

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3  Connecticut 14.8

Outlier A: Oklahoma 49  Connecticut 7

Outlier B: Connecticut 27  Oklahoma 23

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August 17, 2010

2010 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

 

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos Atlantic ACC W-L
1 Florida State 6-2 8-5
2 Boston College 5-3 8-4
3 Clemson 5-3 8-4
4 Maryland 3-5 6-6
5 Wake Forest 2-6 4-8
6 North Carolina State 1-7 4-8
       
Pos Coastal ACC W-L
1 Miami (Fla) 6-2 10-3
2 North Carolina 6-2 10-2
3 Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3
4 Georgia Tech 5-3 8-4
5 Duke 3-5 5-7
6 Virginia 0-8 3-9

 

ACC Championship Game: Miami over Florida State

 

BCS Bowl (Orange): Miami

Chick-fil-A Bowl: North Carolina

Champs Sports Bowl: Clemson

Sun Bowl: Florida State

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Virginia Tech

Music City Bowl: Georgia Tech

Independence Bowl: Maryland

Eagle Bank Bowl: Boston College

 

 

Team By Team Breakdown

 

Atlantic Division

 

Team Boston College Eagles
               
Head Coach Frank Spaziani
               
Colors Maroon and Gold
               
City Chestnut Hill, MA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 109.1
               
National Rating 40
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: Coach Frank Spaziani won eight games in his debut in Chestnut Hill last season.  He did it with a lackluster offense that averaged just 63 scrimmage plays and 324 yards, relying on a defense to win four close games.  His 2010 offense will look similar; the Eagles will score just enough to win more close games.

There’s a greybeard operating at quarterback with 26-year old sophomore Dave Shinskie taking over for a full season.  In 10 starts, the 6-year Minor League baseball veteran tossed for 2,049 yards and 15 touchdowns, but he has to cut down on his 14 interceptions (4.9%).

Shinskie’s stats may not look all that much better this year, because somebody has to catch his strikes.  Last year’s primary receiver, Rich Gunnell, caught 60 passes, which was 31 more than anybody else.  Wide out Colin Larmond caught just 29 passes, but he averaged better than 20 yards per catch.  BC always has good tight ends, and Chris Pantale should catch as many as 40 passes this year.  He will prove invaluable in the 3rd and medium situations, where his 6-6 frame will be a great target at the first down marker.

The running game has a dominant player but little quality depth.  Montel Harris finished second in the league with 1,457 yards rushing, finding paydirt 14 times.  He will have to carry the load and carry the pigskin 20-30 times per game this year, or BC may struggle on this side of the ball.

Chances are good that Harris will continue to churn out consistent gains thanks to the return of four starters to the offensive line.  Tackle Anthony Castonzo was a 1st Team All-ACC pick last year, and we believe he is the best OL Prospect for the next NFL Draft.

The Eagles won’t generate highlights for ESPN on this side of the ball, but they will rush for 175-200 yards and pass for 150, putting up about 25 points a game for the third year in a row.

Defense: For five years in a row, BC has been very tough against the run, giving up 91, 108, 76, 91, and 103 yards per game.  These stats have not been inflated (or deflated depending on how you look at it) due to a high number of sacks.  BC has consistently great run-stoppers, and that should continue again this season.

Three experienced starters return to the front four.  End Alex Albright met and dumped enemy ball carriers on their side of the line seven times last year.  Throw in a sack and ¼ of all his tackles went for lost yardage.

It would have been one of the best stories of the season if linebacker Mark Herzlich could have played and contributed after missing all of last year with cancer.  He was ready to play, but he suffered a stress fracture in his foot.  He might be able to return later in the season.  The Eagles still have talent at linebacker with Luke Kuechly, the tackling monster.  Kuechly led the ACC with 158 tackles, including 13 for losses.  He broke up four passes and picked off one other.

Because the run defense was so effective, opponents took to the air against BC.  The Eagles gave up 224 passing yards at a 62% completion rate, but the secondary did intercept 15 passes (29 broken up).  Two starters return including free safety Wes Davis, but the two new starters saw considerable action last year.

This year’s defense will be much like last year’s defense.  Expect 18-22 points and 300-325 yards allowed.  Boring is okay when it is successful.

Schedule: Boston College gets their off-week at the best possible time.  After opening with “gimme” games against Weber State and Kent State, the Eagles get two weeks to prepare for a home game with Virginia Tech.  They follow it up with a fourth consecutive home tilt, hosting rival Notre Dame.  We expect the Eagles will be 3-1 or possibly 2-2 at this point.  They play at Syracuse to end the season, and there is a chance that the ‘Cuse could be 5-6 playing for bowl eligibility. 

The Eagles lack that extra oomph to get them to the next level.  They need a Doug Flutie or Matt Ryan for that.  Call it another 5-3/8-4 regular season.

Team Clemson Tigers
               
Head Coach Dabo Swinney
               
Colors Orange and Purple
               
City Clemson, SC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 6-2
Overall 9-5
               
PiRate Rating 113.7
               
National Rating 25
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: The Tigers won the division title last year with a powerful, multi-dimensional offense that made the most of the yardage it gained.  CU averaged 362 yards a game.  One player was responsible for 123 of those yards and 16 touchdowns.  He also scored five return touchdowns.  C J Spiller is now a Buffalo Bill.

Many people will think Clemson’s offense will fall off quite a bit this year due to the loss of their superstar.  They are wrong.  CU might even gain more total yards this year.  Quarterback Kyle Parker is a two-sport star.  He is a home run hitter with an offer on the table from the Colorado Rockies.  He could be the next Todd Helton.  Coach Dabo Swinney does not have another Peyton Manning on his roster, so he hopes Parker continues to play football.  Expect better numbers from the sophomore after he passed for 2,526 yards and 20 touchdowns as a freshman.

Replacing Spiller’s 1,200+ rushing yards may not be impossible.  CU will use a two-man tandem, and both are solid players.  Andre Ellington will start; he has good speed, and he has good hands to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Jamie Harper has more power and can gain the tough yards.

The offensive line returns four experienced starters; this unit takes a back seat to no other OL in the conference.  Tackle Chris Hairston and guard Antoine McClain will compete for 1st Team All-ACC accolades.

The Tigers have a lot of depth but untested talent at wide receiver.  Swinney will take advantage of this depth with Xavier Dye, Marquan Jones, Javon Brown, and Bryce McNeal all scheduled to see playing time.  McNeal is a burner who can get open deep in a hurry.  He may catch only 25-30 passes, but he should average 20+ yards per reception.  Dye and Jones can burn defenses as well, so we expect the Tigers’ yards per catch to be among the highest in the nation.

Clemson will gain more yards this year, but their points per game average will drop due to the elimination of all the special teams’ touchdowns.  Call it 375-400 yards and 24-28 points per game

Defense: CU lost five starters, including star linebacker Kavell Conner, but they have even more talent on this side of the ball than on the other.  Three starters return up front where the Tigers had a league best 36 sacks (tied with Virginia Tech).  All four of this year’s projected starters have all-conference potential.  Tackle Jarvis Jenkins made 10 tackles for loss and one sack.  No ACC rival can rival this line.

The Tigers have some holes to fill at linebacker.  Only one starter returns.  Brandon Maye recorded 103 tackles with three sacks and four others for loss.  True freshman Justin Parker has cornerback speed, and he should start from game one. 

As good as the front four are, the back four could be better!  Strong safety DeAndre McDaniel intercepted a league-best eight passes last year.  Cornerback Marcus Gilchrist registered 107 tackles.

If Clemson can get adequate play from their linebackers, they will be tough on this side of the ball.  Expect opponents to use a lot of play-action and misdirection, trying to exploit the inexperience in the middle unit.  We look for Clemson to give up 18-22 points and 300-325 yards per game.

Schedule: The Tigers play two easy marks and two tough SEC teams outside of ACC play.  CU hosts North Texas and Presbyterian to start the season, before visiting the Loveliest Village on the Plains and Auburn.  They close at home with in-state rival South Carolina where they will be looking for revenge. 

In ACC play, CU draws both North Carolina and Miami from the other division.  They have the talent to repeat as Atlantic Division champions, but we think they will come up one game short; they must play on the road against Boston College and Florida State.

Team Florida State Seminoles
               
Head Coach Jimbo Fisher
               
Colors Garnet and Gold
               
City Tallahassee, FL
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 7-6
               
PiRate Rating 119.0
               
National Rating 17
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: When was the last time Bobby Bowden was not patrolling the sidelines at Florida State?  Do you remember the year the Cincinnati Reds beat the Boston Red Sox in the World Series, the one where Carlton Fisk willed his long fly ball to stay fair as it sailed over the Green Monster at Fenway Park?  Yes, it was 1975 when the Seminoles were coached to a 3-8 season by Darrell Mudra.

Enter Jimbo Fisher.  He has been the coach in waiting the last couple of years.  He inherits the controls of a dangerous offense capable of reminding Seminole fans of past great FSU teams.

Start at quarterback, where Christian Ponder has to be considered a Heisman Trophy candidate.  Ponder completed 69% of his passes for 2,717 yards and 14 touchdowns a year ago (8.2 yards/attempt), despite missing four games last year to injury.  E.J. Manuel could start for many teams, but he will see mop-up duty for FSU. 

Ponder will miss the services of two great receivers.  Rod Owens graduated, and Jarmon Fortson was dismissed from the team.  Two quality holdovers return in Bert Reed and Taiwan Easterling.  Look for these two to combine for 120-140 receptions this year, because there is very little experience on the bench. 

Florida State’s running game began to re-emerge as a power last year, as the Seminoles improved to 150 rushing yards per game.  Jermaine Thomas moved into the starting lineup at the end of September and rushed for 832 yards and nine scores.  He could become the first 1,000 yard rusher since Warrick Dunn’s senior season.  If Thomas fails to rush for 1,000 yards, it will be because he had to share the position with several other quality runners.

The offensive line returns intact, and it is on par with the offensive line at Clemson.  Guard Rodney Hudson has 1st Round draft potential.

FSU topped 30 points and 420 yards per game in 2009, and we believe they will improve a bit more this year.  Look for 32-36 points and 425-450 yards.

Defense: The once proud defense in Tallahassee fell apart last year, as FSU gave up 30 points per game for the first time since 1973, when the ‘Noles went 0-11.  Three of the top five tacklers graduated, but there is hope for considerable improvement.  Mark Stoops, younger brother of Bob and Mike, takes over at defensive coordinator.

Stoops must work his magic up front, where FSU gave up 205 rushing yards (5.4 avg.) per game last year, including 401 to Georgia Tech.  Sophomore tackle Jacobbi McDaniel started two games last year after coming here as the number one d-line recruit.  He joins three holdovers in the trenches, but none of the other three will challenge for all-conference honors.  End Markus White is a plus though.

2009’s top tacklers Nigel Bradham and Kendall Smith combined for 178 tackles; they return at linebacker and should team with outstanding true freshman recruit Jeff Luc.

The secondary gave up 230 passing yards, and considering that teams could run the ball with ease against them, this is a large amount of yards.  The ‘Noles should be okay at cornerback with Ochuko Jenjie and Greg Reid starting and Dionte Allen seeing a lot of time.

There is only one way to go with the amount of talent Stoops has on defense.  Expect FSU to improve to 22-26 points and 375-400 yards allowed.

Schedule: Fisher will get off to a good start at Doak Campbell Stadium.  The ‘Noles host Samford.  The following week, they venture to Oklahoma and then host BYU a week after that.  If they are 3-0, then we’re looking at a team that could be on its way to the BCS Championship Game.  We believe they will be 2-1 and on their way to the ACC Championship Game.  The season finale at home with Florida is a tossup before the season begins.

In conference action, FSU avoids Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech from the Coastal Division and hosts North Carolina.  They must play at Miami.  We believe they will get a chance to revenge the loss Miami will give them in a rematch on December 4.

Team Maryland Terrapins
               
Head Coach Ralph Friedgen
               
Colors Red, White, Black, and Gold
               
City College Park, MD
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 2-10
               
PiRate Rating 95.7
               
National Rating 70
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Offense: Sizzle, sizzle, sizzle.  That sound is Coach Ralph Friedgen starting to simmer on a very hot seat.  It is now or never for Fridge in College Park.  Following a 2-10 season which was his fourth losing season in six year, the Terps must win in 2010, or a new coach will be coming in.

The biggest criticism with Friedgen has been the difficulty of his offense.  New quarterbacks tend to struggle learning it all.  Junior signal caller Jamarr Robinson returns after seeing some action under center last year, so he has just enough experience to move the Maryland offense. 

Robinson has a nice group of receivers, led by the top four pass catchers from last year.  Torrey Smith was a 1st Team All-ACC pick last year after making 61 catches for 824 yards.  Adrian Cannon, Ronnie Tyler, and running backs Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett combined for 98 receptions, so there is a lot of experience here.

UM’s running game was weak last year.  Scott and Meggett were more valuable as receivers than runners.  Scott was injured most of the year, and when he was healthy in 2008, he topped 1,000 yards.  Look for something closer to 2008 than 2009.

The offensive line was a weak spot last year, and there must be improvement here for the offense to turn it around.  Three starters return, but nobody in this unit will make honorable mention All-ACC.

We don’t know if the Terps can improve enough to please the fans and administration, but UM will post better numbers on this side of the ball.  Look for 24 points and 350-375 yards.

Defense: Maryland was one of three ACC teams to give up more than 30 points per game last year, and the Terps lost six starters from that group.  This will be Friedgen’s downfall if UM fails to win enough games.

Problems start up front where three new starters must be found.  Tackle A.J. Francis is the lone returnee.  He had just one sack. 

The second line of defense is much better than the front four, but they will have to shed a lot more blocks this year in order to replicate that 2009 effort.  Middle linebacker Alex Wujciak was a 1st Team All-ACC performer after leading the Terps with 131 tackles and 8 ½ for losses.

Three starters must be replaced in the secondary.  Lone holdover Cameron Chism could make all-conference at cornerback.  His counterpart could be a freshman.  Safeties Kenny Tate and Antwine Perez combined for 92 tackles as reserves last year, so they should perform adequately this year.

This defense will not be confused with Jerry Claiborne’s old defenses from the Randy White days in College Park, but it will be better than last year.  Look for 24-28 points and 360-380 yards allowed.

Schedule: We believe the opening game could decide Friedgen’s fate.  Maryland plays Navy in Baltimore, on Labor Day.  Their other three non-conference games are against Morgan State and Florida International at home and West Virginia on the road.  They must win three of those four to go bowling this year. 

In ACC play, they draw both Duke and Virginia from the other division, and they host North Carolina State and Wake Forest.  They couldn’t ask for a better schedule, and they should win six games. Whether or not that is enough to save Fridge, we don’t know.

Team North Carolina State Wolfpack
               
Head Coach Tom O’Brien
               
Colors Red and White
               
City Raleigh, NC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 2-6
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 97.9
               
National Rating 64
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 0-8
Overall 2-10

 

Offense: Coach Tom O’Brien hasn’t been able to work his magic in Raleigh like he did at Boston College.  Except for a four-game stretch in November of 2008, when the Wolfpack climbed from 2-6 to 6-6 by defeating Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Miami, the ‘Pack has gone 12-21 in the rest of their games.

The offense will be the bright spot for this team this season.  Coming off a year in which they topped 30 points and gained close to 400 yards per game, they return their starting quarterback and most of his favorite targets from a year ago.

Quarterback Russell Wilson has been a little rusty in practice so far.  He spent the spring and early summer playing minor league baseball (he hit a low .230), so it may take a few weeks before he is back in a groove.  Wilson tossed for better than 3,000 yards and 31 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.  Backup Mike Glennon was one of the top QB prospects three years ago, and he saw some action last year as a redshirt freshman.

There is abundant talent at receiver where the top four return from 2009.  Tight end George Bryan nabbed 40 passes and scored six times.  Wideouts Owen Spencer, Jarvis Williams, and Darrell Davis combined for 100 catches and 18 touchdowns.  Spencer is a deep threat every time he touches the ball.  He averaged 25.5 points a catch to lead the nation in that department a year after he averaged 21.2 per catch.   There is experienced depth behind this group.

The running game has not been a strong point for several years,  and we don’t see it getting much better this year.  Curtis Underwood and James Washington will split most of the carries. 

The offensive line took a major hit to graduation losses.  Three starters, including an NFL draft, have used up their eligibility.  This will keep the Wolfpack from moving north of .500 this year.

We believe that State will take a small move backward this year with less pass protection and another so-so running game.  Call it 23-27 points and 350-375 yards per game.

Defense:  O’Brien has not been able to put together solid defenses in his three years in Raleigh.  NCSU gave up 31.2 points per game last year, and they lost six starters from that squad. 

The entire defensive line must be replaced (including NFL draftee Willie Young), and in a league with really good offensive lines, this is major trouble.  Senior end Michael Lemon is the best of this lot, but he won’t be confused for Robert Quinn or Alan Bailey.

Too bad, State cannot play a 1-7 defense, because they have talent and depth at linebacker.  Terrell Manning, Nate Irving, and Audie Cole make a great trio, and former starter Dwayne Maddox leads an excellent second group.

As weak as the front four is, the back four could be weaker.  One full-time starter and one part-time starter returns from last year, but neither intercepted a pass.  Safeties Brandon Bishop and Earl Wolff were better as run-stoppers than pass defenders.

The Wolfpack could repeat last year’s dismal performance.  We will call for them to yield 28-32 points and 350-375 yards per game.

Schedule: There is a chance for a 4-0 non-league mark, but we will call for one team to nip them.  State hosts Western Carolina and Cincinnati and plays at Central Florida and East Carolina. 

In league play, the ‘Pack faces Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech from the Coastal Division.  That’s three losses before you factor in their own tough divisional opponents.  It looks like a last place finish for the third time in four years, but this time they will own it by themselves (tied for last the other two times).

Team Wake Forest Demon Deacons
               
Head Coach Jim Grobe
               
Colors Black and Old Gold
               
City Winston-Salem, NC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 103.6
               
National Rating 49
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 2-6
Overall 5-7

 

Offense: The Demon Deacons lose their all-time leading passer and three starting offensive linemen, so 2010 is going to be a work in progress.

Coach Jim Grobe enters his 10th season here, and he has proven to be quite adaptable, changing his offensive game plan to match the talent he has.   This year, look for Wake Forest to revert back to a run first philosophy after using a 50-50 run-pass approach with Riley Skinner at quarterback.

The Deacs may go to a two-quarterback rotation this year.  Junior Skylar Jones is more of a running quarterback, while sophomore Ted Stachitas is more of a pure passer.  Redshirt freshman Brendan Cross and true freshman Tanner Price are getting a lot of reps in practice, so apparently Grobe is not 100% decided on which player will start the first game.

Running back Josh Adams won’t appear among the ACC rushing leaders, but he is a dual threat back.  He rushed for 541 yards and four touchdowns and caught 28 passes for 307 yards.  Backup Brandon Pettigrew added 399 yards on the ground.

Three talented receivers return, but their catches are sure to drop some if Jones plays more than Stachitas.  Chris Givens, Devon Brown, and Marshall Williams teamed for 166 receptions and 20 touchdowns.  All three can get yards after the catch.

The offensive line is the problem this year.  Both tackles and one guard must be replaced, and with an inexperienced quarterback, the team’s interception and sack percentages are sure to rise.  Grobe may counter this by going back to more of the zone blocking schemes he used earlier in his tenure at Wake and at Ohio U.

There is no way Wake Forest can match last year’s offensive output.  Look for the averages to fall to 21-24 points and 360-390 yards.

Defense: The Demon Deacons are undersized and inexperienced up front, and that could lead to teams running the ball at that all day.  Wake gave up 164 rushing yards per game last year; that number could top 200 this season.

Ends Kyle Wilber and Tristan Dorty do not have the size to take on a one-on-one drive block from an offensive tackle.  They are better pass rushers.  The tackles will have the beef, but they lack experience.

Three linebackers with playing experience return to the second line of defense, but they will not get much help up front.  Expect more blitzing by this group, and that will leave holes open in pass coverage.

The secondary has experience and talent.  Cornerback Kenny Okoro excelled in his freshman year with three interceptions and 11 passes knocked down.  Wake won’t give up 219 passing yards per game last year, and we expect that number to drop—partly because the secondary is good and partly because opponents will run the ball more.

We believe opposing teams will control the ball for more plays this year.  Last year, the Deacons enjoyed a scrimmage play difference of +4; that number could be reversed this year.  Look for the Deacs to give up 28-32 points and 375-400 yards.

Schedule: The Deacons play four private schools out of league play, and they could win three of those games; they could also lose three of them.  They host Presbyterian and Navy, and they play at Stanford and Vanderbilt.

In the league, they get Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech from the other division.  They face North Carolina State and Maryland on the road, so those games are not sure wins.  Wake will have to pull off two or three upsets to become bowl eligible, and we don’t see it happening.

Coastal Division

Team Duke Blue Devils
               
Head Coach David Cutcliffe
               
Colors Royal Blue and White
               
City Durham, NC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 95.0
               
National Rating 75
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 2-6
Overall 4-8

 

Offense: Coach David Cutcliffe is known as an offensive genius who has helped develop talented quarterbacks into Super Bowl ring-holders.  Two brothers named Manning can thank him for making them better than they were.  Thaddeus Lewis enjoyed playing two seasons for him here, and he departs as Duke’s all-time leading passer.

Welcome Sean Renfree.  He becomes the next star pupil for Professor Cutcliffe.  Renfree suffered an ACL injury last year, so his mobility will be a question.  Don’t expect Lewis-like numbers, but he should have some success in his first year as a regular.

Almost every receiver from last year returns, so Renfree will benefit from this experience.  Donovan Varner led the ACC with 65 catches for 1,047 yards and eight touchdowns.  Conner Vernon and Austin Kelly both caught more than 50 balls and proved to be able to break off a long gain.

Duke ran the ball only about 25 times a game last year and averaged just 64 yards per game (only 80 with sacks removed).  True freshman Josh Snead and Juwan Thompson are expected to contribute immediately this year and challenge projected starter Jay Hollingsworth and Desmond Scott for playing time.  Expect some improvement here.

The offensive line welcomes the return of four starters from last year, and they will give Renfree ample time to locate his receivers.  Tackle Kyle Hill will protect Renfree’s blind side.

We believe the Blue Devils will rush for 100 yards this year, which may not sound like much at first.  Duke has only topped 100 yards rushing once in the four years.  Add about 225 to 250 passing yards, and the Blue Devils should score 21-25 points per game.

Defense: Duke will add some 3-4 fronts to their regular 4-3 defense this year.  A lack of talent up front will force Cutcliffe to rely more on a three-man line.  Nose guard Charlie Hatcher has the size to occupy multiple blockers.

Two starters return at linebacker, but there isn’t a star player in this group.  Middle linebacker Damian Thornton could be the leading tackler this year.

If Thornton isn’t the leading tackler, strong safety Matt Daniels will be.  He made 83 stops and broke up five passes last year.  Cornerback Chris Rwabukamba batted away seven passes.  Former receiver Johnny Williams moves over to the secondary, and he should see a lot of playing time at cornerback.

The defense will keep Duke from gaining bowl eligibility.  Look for the Blue Devils to give up 28-32 points and 375-400 yards per game.

Schedule: Duke should win two non-conference games.  They begin the season with Elon and play host to Army.  They host Alabama on September 18, and I give Duke a lot of credit for keeping this game at Wallace Wade Stadium rather than take a huge payout to move it to a neutral site (Wade coached at both schools).  The Devils play at Navy at the end of October.

Duke draws Boston College, Wake Forest, and Maryland and doesn’t have to face Florida State or Clemson.  They could win three ACC games, but they will probably need a 4-4 league mark to get that elusive sixth win.

Team Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
               
Head Coach Paul Johnson
               
Colors Old Gold and White
               
City Atlanta, GA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 7-1
Overall 11-3
               
PiRate Rating 119.9
               
National Rating 14
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Offense:  Coach Paul Johnson and his magic spread option offense continues to fool defenses wherever he takes it.  Football pundits were skeptical that the option could win a BCS conference championship, but Tech proved them wrong last year.  Of course, Iowa stopped them cold in the Orange Bowl.  Expect every team on the Yellow Jackets’ schedule to closely examine the tape of that game.

The spread option requires a few important things to work.  The fullback (B Back as Johnson calls the position) must be strong enough to create his own hole and not go down on first contact.  The quarterback must be smart enough to read the defense and react appropriately without losing ground as he runs laterally.  Surprisingly, for this offense to work, there has to be one receiver who can get open deep and command the respect from the secondary.  If he requires double coverage, then there are not enough defenders left to stop the option.

Notice that outstanding blocking was not mentioned.  Sure, blocking is important, but most of the plays provide for double-team blocking near the first point of attack. 

Let’s cover each of these points.  At fullback (B back), beefy Anthony Allen should satisfy the requirement and be tough to bring down on first contact.  He rushed for 618 yards and six touchdowns last year playing in the slot (A back), but he should get 200-225 carries this year and should top 1,000 yards on the ground.  Slotbacks Roddy Jones and Embry Peeples will be the recipient of option pitches and should combine for about six to seven yards per carry.  Sure, Tech will miss Jonathan Dwyer and his nearly 1,400 yards rushing, but the Jackets will rush for about the same amount of yards this year.

Quarterback Josh Nesbitt was the 1st Team All-ACC quarterback last year.  He ran for 1,037 yards and 18 touchdowns and passed for 1,701 yards and 10 more touchdowns.  Even though his passing percentage was just 46.3%, he averaged 10.5 yards per attempt.

Tech loses star receiver Demaryius Thomas (46 catches, 25.1 avg., 8 TD).  Thomas caught almost 60% of the passes last year.  The slotbacks (A-backs) have the quickness to get open and in the clear, so Nesbitt should once again top 10 yards per attempt.

The offensive line returns just two starters, but we are not overly concerned for the reasons we discussed previously.  Yes, there will be a little drop in blocking ability because both graduated guards were all-conference performers.  However, the new linemen will learn and become effective much sooner than pass blocking linemen could learn.

Georgia Tech will throw in a few new wrinkles to counter the defensive maneuvers they faced in the Orange Bowl.  Expect the Techsters to top 30 points and 400 yards once again this year.

Defense: Georgia Tech gave up almost 25 points per game last year.  They return eight starters from last year, but those three players were stars.

Johnson hired Al Groh as defensive coordinator.  Groh knows the rest of the league well, having been the head coach at Virginia.  He brings the 3-4 defense to Atlanta.

The defensive line lost Derrick Morgan to the NFL.  Morgan recorded 12 ½ sacks (50% of the team’s total) and six other tackles for loss.  This year’s starting trio up front averages about 285 pounds, so they will force opposing offenses to use double team blocks at the line.  That will give the linebackers room to roam and pursue.

The linebackers will be charged with two three tasks.  They will have to make most of the tackles, most of the QB sacks, and play pass defense as well.  Brad Jefferson is the star of this unit.  He led Tech with 95 tackles and got into the offensive backfield eight times for stops.  Anthony Egbuniwe will be the lead rush linebacker, and his ability to get to the quarterback will determine how successful the new defense becomes.

The secondary loses a 3rd Round NFL Draft choice, and it is not as strong as last year.  The returning starters are much better at run support than pass defense.  Cornerbacks Mario Butler and Dominique Reese combined for just three interceptions and five passes broken up.

Tech’s defense may take a turn south in their first year in the new system.  They will be fine against the run, but a weak pass rush and mediocre secondary will give up too many yards through the air.  As quick as the offense scores points, the defense will give them up.  Look for about 26-30 points and 375-400 yards allowed.

Schedule: Tech should win three of their non-conference games.  They begin the season hosting South Carolina State.  The following week they play at a rebuilding Kansas team.  They host Middle Tennessee, and they conclude the regular season facing Georgia between the hedges.

In the ACC, they get Clemson, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest from the other division.  Clemson will be out for revenge after falling twice to the Jackets last year in games they could have won.  Road games with North Carolina and Virginia Tech will be trouble, and a home game with Miami won’t be easy.  Call it a 5-3 league mark this year.  If they can win one more, it just may be enough to get a piece of the division flag.

Team Miami Hurricanes
               
Head Coach Randy Shannon
               
Colors Royal Purple and Gold
               
City Coral Gables, FL
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 9-4
               
PiRate Rating 120.9
               
National Rating 12
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 9-3

 

Offense: The Hurricanes are close to returning back to the dominating team they were when they earned five national titles and just missed on three or four others.  Coach Randy Shannon has a couple of holes to fill, but this team is loaded with talent and ready to ascend to the top of the ACC.

Quarterback Jacory Harris has a live arm.  He can throw a 50-yard bomb with what looks like little effort.  He played much of last year with a thumb injury, and that led to several bad throws.  He still managed to gain 3,352 yards and 24 touchdowns, but he tossed 17 interceptions too.  If he stays 100% healthy, look for Harris to top 3,500 yards and maybe approach 4,000.  If his TD/Int. ratio is something like 30/10, the “U” is going to compete for their next national championship.

Harris will get a chance to have a Heisman Trophy type of season because he has a loaded group of receivers on hand.  The Hurricanes return their top five pass catchers, including three guys who can get open deep.  Leonard Hankerson is the best of the group.  He caught 45 passes for 801 yards (17.8 avg./c) and six touchdowns.  Travis Benjamin and Aldarius Johnson also topped 17 yards per reception.

The running back position is a question mark as the season begins.  The question is not about talent; it is about determining how many backs will contribute.  Shannon has five talented backs competing for time.  Expect a running back by committee approach.  Damien Berry appears to be the starter, but Graig Cooper and Mike James should get a lot of attempts.  Lamar Miller is a burner with sprinter’s speed, and true freshman Storm Johnson could work his way into the mix.

The one real concern on this side of the ball is the offensive line.  Three starters, including an NFL Draft pick, are gone.  The Hurricanes’ starting tackles, Joel Figueroa and Orlando Franklin, will be the stars of this unit, and how the other three inside players perform may determine just how far this team can go.  Southern Cal true freshman transfer Seantrel Henderson will be eligible to play this year, and he could contribute immediately; he was the top offensive lineman recruit in the nation.

We will call for Miami to score 31-35 points and gain 415-430 yards per game.  They should explode against the weaker teams on their schedule, but there are three or four teams with defenses strong enough to hold them to 24 points or less.

Defense: Some Miami fans believe this year’s defense has the potential to be as good as the 2001 team.  We are a bit skeptical.  This will be a better defense than last year, but we don’t see them holding teams to 250 yards and less than 10 points per game.

The ‘Canes may have the best defensive line in the conference.  We say “may” because we don’t know for sure what will happen with North Carolina.  At worst, this is the second best DL in the ACC.  Shannon has a lot of talent here and can play two units.  That will help when Miami has to play a home game in hot and humid weather.  Three of the four down linemen could earn 1st or 2nd Team All-ACC accolades this year.  End Allen Bailey dumped enemy quarterbacks seven times last year and made four other stops behind the line. 

The linebackers are not as talented as the front line, but they are still one of the four best in the league.  Colin McCarthy and Sean Spence return as starters and will man the outside spots.  Kylan Robinson gets first crack in the middle.  McCarthy was a star last year with 10 ½ stops for loss.

The secondary is as talented as the linebackers.  Cornerback Brandon Harris practically shut down his side of the field last year.  He intercepted just two passes, but he batted away 15 others to lead the league in passes defensed. 

Miami gave up 22 points per game last year.  Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina scored 36 points per game against them, while the other 10 teams averaged just 18 points per game.  Look for the ‘Canes to lower their defensive numbers to 18 points and 300-325 yards allowed.

Schedule:  We believe the schedule is just hard enough to keep Miami from challenging for a spot in the National Championship Game.  We do believe they are the favorite to play in the Orange Bowl.  Outside of the ACC, the Hurricanes have two tough road games, and we don’t think they can beat both Ohio State and Pittsburgh on enemy turf.  Home games with Florida A&M and South Florida will be different.

In league play, the Coastal Division has four tough teams, and they will beat up on each other.  We think 6-2 will earn part of a piece of the title, and we give Miami the nod to win the division in a tiebreaker.

Team North Carolina Tar Heels
               
Head Coach Butch Davis
               
Colors Carolina Blue and White
               
City Chapel Hill, NC
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 121.1
               
National Rating 11
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 10-2

 

Offense: Imagine if Florida had to enter fall drills any of the last three years wondering if Tim Tebow was going to play.  Imagine if the Miami Heat had to wonder if Lebron James and Dwayne Wade may or may not be able to play.  That’s what North Carolina faces, and it greatly interferes with our ability to make our picks here.

The best offensive player to play in Chapel Hill since Amos Lawrence will probably be declared ineligible to play.  Wide receiver/running back Greg Little attended a Memorial Day weekend party in South Beach, Florida, hosted by a professional agent, and he apparently did not pay for the trip.  That is a violation of NCAA rules and can lead to his being declared ineligible (see the defense for more bad news).  Little was going to be used all over the field this year, running, catching, and maybe even throwing the ball.  Without him, North Carolina’s offense goes from dominating to just better than average.

Our ratings above do not factor his (and the defensive player to be mentioned below) being ineligible, so we will have to lower that rating when and if the time comes.

Let’s continue with what we do know.  Quarterbacks T.J. Yates and Bryn Renner find themselves in a media-inspired controversy over which player should start.  Whether Coach Butch Davis considers it a controversy, we don’t know.  Yates was the starter last year and completed 60% of his passes for 2,136 yards and 14 touchdowns.  However, he threw 15 interceptions.  Renner redshirted as a true freshman.   

Without Little, the receiving corps goes from a strength to a concern.  Wideouts Erik Highsmith and Jheranie Boyd will be asked to shoulder the load.  They shared in receiving 49 passes last year, but they were never doubled with Little in the lineup.  Tight end Zack Pianalto caught 33 passes, and he may become a key alternative now.  He could top 50 receptions this year.

Three players should see action at tailback.  Shaun Draughn missed a third of the season with a shoulder injury, and he managed just 567 yards.  Ryan Houston led the Tar Heels with 713 yards and nine touchdowns (three more than Little).  Senior Johnny White could work his way into the rotation.  A.J. Blue saw some action in the Wildcat formation.

With four starters back, the offensive line will be one of the two best in the division.  Guard Alan Pelc could hear his name called in next year’s NFL Draft.

Without Little, we will call for the offense to score about 21-24 points and gain 320-340 yards per game.  If he survives the scandal and actually gets to play, add about four points and 30-40 yards to that amount.

Defense:  Little was not the only Tar Heel at that party.  Not only was the best offensive player on the team there, the best defensive player on the time attended as well.  Tackle Marvin Austin is the one of the best inside defensive linemen in college football and a sure 1st Round pick in the next NFL Draft.  He made four sacks and two other tackles for loss last season.  He got a hand on three passes as well.  He would have anchored the best defensive line in the league and one of the five best in the nation.  Without him, UNC still has an exceptional unit, but it drops below Miami in talent.  End Robert Quinn finished second in the league with 11 sacks and first in total tackles for loss (19).

All three 2009 starters return at linebacker including two all-conference performers.  Quan Sturdivant led the ‘Heels with 79 tackles, 12 for loss.  Bruce Carter added 7 ½ stops for loss.

The secondary may actually be the best unit on this side, but some of their great results must be attributed to a great pass rush.  Cornerback Kendric Burney picked off five passes a year ago, earning 1st Team All-ACC honors.  Safety Deunta Williams one-upped Burney, picking off six passes and knocking away eight others to earn a spot on the all-conference first team as well.

Even without Austin, this is one of the best defenses in the country.  Look for the Tar Heels to give up about 17-21 points and 275-300 yards.  If Austin can play, shave off three points and 25 yards. 

North Carolina has another weapon.  Kicker Casey Barth connected on 21 of 25 field goal attempts, including 4-5 from 40 yards or more.

Schedule: The opening game in Atlanta against LSU will reveal a lot.  We expect something like a 14-10 game either way.  We tend to favor the Tar Heels for the moment, but that could change before game night.  If UNC can get by the Tigers, they should go 4-0 outside of the league.  They travel to a weaker Rutgers team and host East Carolina and William and Mary.

UNC gets both Florida State and Clemson from the other division.  They host Virginia Tech and play at Miami.  We think they will lose twice in league play, but one of those will be to the Hurricanes.  That’s why we pick Miami in a tiebreaker.

Team Virginia Cavaliers
               
Head Coach Mike London
               
Colors Blue and Orange
               
City Charlottesville, VA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 2-6
Overall 3-9
               
PiRate Rating 95.3
               
National Rating 73
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 0-8
Overall 3-9

 

Offense: Virginia suffered through losing seasons three of the last four years, and it cost Coach Al Groh his job.  Enter former UVa defensive coordinator Mike London as new coach.  London won an FCS National Championship at Richmond in 2008.

Bill Lazor takes over as the new offensive coordinator.  The veteran NFL assistant has scuttled the former shotgun spread formation for the under-center pro offense.

The Cavaliers might have been better running the single wing, because they are thin on talent at quarterback.  Senior Mark Verica started nine times two years ago, but he was very ineffective throwing 16 interceptions to just eight touchdowns.  True freshman Michael Rocco could eventually take over the reins of the offense.  It will be a long year in Charlottesville, as the Cavs struggle to pick up yards through the air.

To make matters worse, Virginia lost three of their top four receivers from a year ago.  Leading receiver Kris Burd returns after catching 31 passes for 413 yards and just one score.  Tight end Joe Torchia didn’t get many opportunities in the old offense, but he could actually become the leading receiver this year.

With the passing game bound to have some growing pains, it would be great if the running game was really good.  That isn’t going to happen.  Virginia rushed for less than 100 yards per game last year, and their leading returnee had just 73 yards!  Keith Payne started one game in 2008.  He quit before the 2009 season began.  He may become the starter by default.

Also by default, the offensive line becomes the best part of the offense.  There are no all-conference performers in this unit, but at least there is some experience.  Three starters return, and one of the new starters is a highly recruited freshman.

You have to learn how to crawl before you can learn how to walk.  Virginia will crawl a lot this year on this side of the ball and struggle to score points.  Look for just 14-17 points and 250-275 yards per game.

Defense: There will be more growing pains on this side of the ball.  London scrapped Groh’s 3-4 defense and installed a 4-3 in the Spring.  Former outside linebacker Cam Johnson was moved to end, where he is much better suited to play.  The tackles should hold their own and keep blockers away from the middle linebacker.

That middle linebacker is Steve Greer, who earned Freshman All-American honors last year.  Greer posted a team-leading 92 tackles with 6 ½ for loss.  He may make as many as 130 tackles this season, but many will be for good gains by the opponent.  There isn’t much experience or talent on the outside.

Considering it got very little help from the pass rush, the secondary performed quite well last year.  Two starters from that unit return, including Ras-I Dowling.  Dowling earned 2nd Team All-ACC honors after intercepting three passes and batting away eight.  He should be used on the corner blitz more this year as well.

Virginia gave up 26 points per game last year but just 353 total yards.  Look for the Cavaliers to give up a little more this year due to the change in schemes and the offense not being able to control the clock.  We’ll call it 28-31 points and 370-390 total yards.

Schedule: How ironic!  UVa opens the season with Richmond.  London will have a great scouting report, and the Cavs will open the season 1-0 with a hard-fought victory.  The following week, they serve as the home-opening opponent for Lane Kiffin and his Southern Cal Trojans.  After a week off, they host VMI and should move to 2-1.  A home game with lowly Eastern Michigan should give them a third win.

Don’t expect the Cavs to win an ACC game, and if they do, London should get some votes for ACC Coach of the Year.  It will be a tough transition for the Cavs in year one.

Team Virginia Tech Hokies
               
Head Coach Frank Beamer
               
Colors Maroon, Orange, and White
               
City Blacksburg, VA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 6-2
Overall 10-3
               
PiRate Rating 121.8
               
National Rating 7
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 9-3

 

Offense: Virginia Tech has won 10 or more games nine times in the last 11 seasons.  Coach Frank Beamer has won with great offenses, great defenses, and great special teams.  He’s won with mobile quarterbacks and with drop back passers.

He’s got a great mobile quarterback in Tyrod Taylor.  At 6-1, he might be a little too short for the NFL, but he is certainly talented enough to contend for top honors in the ACC.  Taylor threw for 2,311 yards and 13 touchdowns last year with just five interceptions.  His 56% completion rate didn’t look great on paper, but he’s more of a vertical passer.  His completions averaged 17 yards, and he averaged 9.5 yards per attempt.

Taylor has three great targets returning at wideout, each of whom can go deep.  Jarrett Boykin, Danny Coale, and Dyrell Roberts teamed for 92 receptions and 1,839 yards (20 yds./catch).

The Hokies have two running backs capable of rushing for 1,000 yards, as both have done it before.  Ryan Williams raced for a league-leading 1,655 yards and 21 touchdowns last year.  Darren Evans rushed for 1,265 yards in 2008 before missing all of last year with an ACL injury.  He’s fully healthy now.

Tech lost two all-conference offensive linemen from the left side of the line.  That is the only concern on this side of the ball, but it is a big one, as that is Taylor’s blind side.

Virginia Tech should come close to matching last year’s offensive numbers.  If they drop a little, it will be because the Hokies rely a little more on their excellent running game.  Look for 26-30 points and 375-400 yards.

Defense: The reason we don’t have the Hokies penciled in as ACC Coastal Division Champions and legitimate contenders to advance to the National Championship Game is because they lost too much on this side of the ball.  Nine of the top 13 tacklers are gone.  We aren’t about to predict that defensive coordinator Bud Foster will not be able to mold a fine defense with the holdovers, but the Hokies have just enough holes for a couple of teams on their schedule to exploit.

The defensive line returns just one starter.  Tackle John Graves made just 15 tackles last year.  The Hokies sacked enemy quarterbacks 36 times in 2009, and that number will fall by as much as 10 this year.

The Hokies have limited experience returning at linebacker, and they lost an All-American in Cody Grimm.  Barquell Rivers is equally good against the run and the pass, but he will have new partners on either side of him.

Two starters return to a better than average secondary.  Cornerback Rashad Carmichael intercepted six passes and knocked down six more.

It may take a couple of games for the defense to gel, but by October, the Hokies should be challenging for the top stop troops in the conference.  Look for Tech to give up 17-21 points and 300-325 yards per game.

Schedule: Virginia Tech opens the season with what could be the Game of the Year.  They face Boise State at the Washington Redskins Stadium on Labor Day Monday.  So many pundits are calling for Tech to not only beat the Broncos, but do it in convincing manner, all because Boise State lost big to Georgia five years ago.  Five years ago, Barack Obama was unknown to 99% of the country.  Tech’s other three non-league games include home games with James Madison, East Carolina, and Central Michigan.

In the ACC, the Hokies draw Boston College, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest.  They miss Florida State and Clemson.  Their league fate will be decided in back-to-back games in November at North Carolina and Miami.  We felt that they would lose both of these games, and show that in the predictions above.  However, the UNC loss of their top two stars was not figured into that equation.  Tech’s game with Miami should decide the Coastal Division title.

Coming Tomorrow: The Pac-10 Conference prepares to expand to 12 teams next year.  With Southern Cal ineligible for the Rose Bowl, will it be just Ducky again in 2010?

September 22, 2009

The Best Week Of The Season For College Football

Every year, there is one week of the college football season where the schedule presents more than a dozen games that are not just interesting, they are foretelling.  While the season’s final two weeks usually mean everything, usually a mid-season week turns out to be the week where teams either put up or shut up.  We here at the PiRate Ratings believe this is that week.  Let’s look at the 25 games where we see a major interest in watching or listening to this week. 

 

Thursday Night

7:30 PM: Ole Miss at South Carolina—The Rebels play their first important game of the year after clobbering two patsies.  The Gamecocks aren’t a Top 25 team, but in Columbia, they are tough to beat.  It won’t hurt that USC had already played a Thursday night game.  This should be a high scoring game, weather permitting (chance of thunderstorms), and it could be another one of those recent SEC “Arena Football League Games.”

The PiRate computer says Ole Miss should win by 13.3, while the old Mean rating picks the Rebels by 5.  Vegas has Ole Miss by 3 as of midday Monday.  PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

Saturday Games (all times EDT)

12 Noon: Indiana at Michigan—This Hoosier team is 3-0, but make no comparison between it and the cardiac kids of 1967, or even the Bill Mallory teams of 1987 and 1988.  We’ll soon find out if it is another version of the 2007 team.  Indiana struggled to beat Eastern Kentucky and Western Michigan.  Michigan could be on the verge of challenging Penn State, Iowa, and Ohio State for conference supremacy.  They proved themselves valid with a win over Notre Dame, and now they get a chance to move upward.  The PiRate computer picks Michigan by 20.3, and the Mean picks the Wolverines by 14.  PiRate Viewer Rating: B

 

12 Noon: Michigan State at Wisconsin—In August, it looked like this game could be a battle of unbeaten teams, but the Spartans have slipped up with a 1-2 start.  This game becomes a must-win game for MSU, because they face Michigan next week.  Coach Mark Dantonio’s team could be looking at 1-5 or even 1-6 if they slip up this week.  As for the Badgers, this is their sixth consecutive year starting 3-0.  Except for 2006, the season hasn’t finished up like it started.  This could be the pivotal game in the UW coaching career for Bret Bielema.  A win here sets them up for a huge rivalry match at Minnesota next week where a win would send the Badgers to Ohio State with a chance to move into Rose Bowl contention.  Wisconsin avoids Penn State and gets Iowa and Michigan at home this year.  A loss could start the ball rolling toward 7-5 or even 6-6. PiRate Rating: Wisconsin by 0.6/Mean: Wisconsin by 4/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

12 Noon: South Florida at Florida State—We’ve been looking at this matchup for quite some time.  This should be a hard-fought thriller.  USF has wanted a shot at any of the three big teams in the Sunshine State, and the economy has made this one possible.  Florida State’s opening game loss to Miami could be explained.  The letdown against Jacksonville State wasn’t totally surprising.  The 26-point win at BYU was a shock.  That makes Miami look all the more talented.  USF has yet to play quality opposition, and this game will give us a good gauge of the ACC against the Big East.  If the Bulls can win this one, then they should be 5-0 when they host Cincinnati on Thursday, October 15.  PiRate Rating: FSU by 14.3/Mean Rating: FSU by 9/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

12 Noon: Fresno State at Cincinnati—Fresno State has played well in losses to Wisconsin and Boise State, but now they face the hardest game on their schedule.  We don’t think the Bulldogs have much chance of adding another big upset to their 21st Century resume, but we do see this as a gauge game.  Cincinnati has looked like a Top 10 team and maybe contender for the National Championship Game through three games.  If Cinti can do to Fresno State what they did to Rutgers, they will move into the Top 12.  If they cannot win by more than three touchdowns, then it makes Boise State look all the more better.  PiRate Rating: Cinti by 21.7/Mean Rating: Cinti by 20/PiRate Viewer Rating: A

 

12 Noon: Southern Mississippi at Kansas—The Golden Eagles aren’t ranked, but Coach Larry Fedora has a strong team in Hattiesburg.  Southern Miss is 3-0 after their great comeback win over Virginia.  Tough road games remain against Houston, Marshall, and East Carolina, so they probably have little or no chance of running the table and sneaking into the BCS Bowl picture.  Kansas will vie with Missouri and Nebraska for the Big 12 North title this year.  They just missed the last two years, and a big win in this game could set the table for finally breaking through.  An impressive win here, followed by wins over Iowa State and Colorado would have the Jayhawks at 6-0 when Oklahoma invades Lawrence on October 24.  KU QB Todd Reesing may be the best passer without much chance of getting drafted.  At 5-11, he’s considered too small for the NFL.  PiRate Rating: Kansas by 17.1/Mean Rating: 14/PiRate Viewer Rating: A

 

12 Noon: North Carolina at Georgia Tech—This game is interesting because the Tar Heels catch Georgia Tech coming off a disastrous road loss to Miami.  If Coach Butch Davis has UNC ready to challenge on the national scene, then the Heels need to do something close to what Miami did to the Yellow Jackets.  They will stack the box to take away the option and force Josh Nesbitt to beat them through the air.  It can be done, but it won’t be easy.  A Tech win means the winner of the Virginia Tech-Miami game will be in the driver’s seat in the Coastal Division.  PiRate Rating: Tech by 1.9/Mean Rating: Tech by 2/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

12:20 PM: L S U at Mississippi State—The AP and USA Today polls have LSU at number 7, but the Tigers are only the fourth highest-ranked SEC team.  The win at Washington looks much more impressive now, but the lackluster win over Vanderbilt becomes a great comparison here.  New Mississippi State Coach Dan Mullen saw his Bullies stop Vanderbilt in Nashville more impressively than LSU’s win over the Commodores in Tiger Stadium.  This game hasn’t been close since Jackie Sherrill was coaching in Starkville.  We think it might be this year, and with some lucky bounces, MSU could actually be there at the end.  PiRate Rating: LSU by 15.9/Mean Rating: LSU by 12/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

1:00 PM: Marshall at Memphis—Here’s a game that should determine a bowl spot for the winner and doom the loser to the wrong side of .500 for the season.  We think Marshall is primed to break out and save Coach Mark Snyder’s job this year.  It’s been six years since the Thundering Herd last enjoyed a winning season, and we see at least seven wins in their near future.  This is the C-USA opener for both teams.  The schedule sets up well for Marshall if they can win this road game.  They get East Carolina and Southern Miss. at home, and it wouldn’t be a big surprise to us if they could sneak into contention in the East.  PiRate Rating: Marshall by 3.5/Mean Rating: Marshall by 2/PiRate Viewer Rating: B+

 

3:00 PM: UNLV at Wyoming—The Rebels have never been a Division 1-A (FBS) heavyweight.  The 2000 season is the only good year they’ve had since moving up in classification 30 years ago.  UNLV has a chance to get back to a bowl game this year, as long as quarterback Omar Clayton can remain healthy.  On a gimpy knee, he guided the Rebels to a comeback victory over Hawaii.  This becomes a must win game, and Wyoming is beatable.  However, in Laramie, the Cowboys play tough.  Tell Mack Brown that the Cowboys are an easy pushover.  One slip up by UNLV this week makes their bowl hunt much more difficult.  PiRate Rating: UNLV by 3.4/Mean Rating: UNLV by 5/PiRate Viewer Rating: B

 

3:30 PM: Arkansas at Alabama—Arkansas’s passing game will show everybody whether Alabama’s pass defense is national championship caliber.  We don’t expect the Hogs to threaten an upset here, but this game should tell us whether Alabama is good enough to run the table and get to the SEC Championship Game for a second consecutive season.  To this point in the season, Alabama has actually looked like the top team in the conference if not the nation.  If the Tide is going to rise and become the South’s elite, they need to win this one by 20 or more points.  PiRate Rating: Bama by 20.8/Mean Rating: Bama by 20/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

3:30 PM: California at Oregon—The Bears didn’t look like a championship caliber team in their win at Minnesota last week, while Oregon handled Utah.  Cal has a home date with Southern Cal next week, but the players better concentrate on this game.  Autzen Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play as a visitor, and Oregon isn’t Washington State.  If Cal doesn’t come out ready for bear, the game with Southern Cal could be for 5th place in the standings.  Jahvid Best needs to put two good halves together to move up on the Heisman Trophy list.  PiRate Rating: Cal by 15.5/Mean Rating: Cal by 3/PiRate Viewer Rating: A+

 

3:30 PM: TCU at Clemson—With BYU and Utah losing to BCS conference teams this past weekend, the Horned Frogs may be the last legitimate shot for a Mountain West team to make it to a BCS Bowl Game.  A win at Clemson could move TCU up into the top 12.  We don’t think this Horned Frog team has the same tough defense as the recent teams in Ft. Worth.  Clemson could easily be 3-0 today, but several questionable miscues cost them against Georgia Tech.  After watching Miami destroy Tech, could the Yellow Jackets be overrated, and thus could Clemson not be as tough as they were supposed to be?  This game may not supply the answers, but at least the winner will move up on the early bowl bubble.  PiRate Rating: Clemson by 4.5/Mean Rating: Tossup/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

3:30 PM: Pittsburgh at North Carolina State—We here at the PiRate Ratings must remain impartial, as the only thing we truly root for is to be correct when we pick games.  However, a couple of us would be happy if Dave Wannstedt had a BCS Bowl team.  This may be Pittsburgh’s best team since 1982.  Then, again, this could be another year like 2000.  We should have a lot more evidence to make that call after this game.  The Panthers have a one-two punch in quarterback Bill Stull and blazing fast running back Dion Lewis.  North Carolina State is a little better than average but not the juggernaut they were seven years ago.  It Pittsburgh can win in Raleigh, a double-digit win season is possible.  PiRate Rating: Pitt by 2.0/Mean Rating: 6/PiRate Viewer Rating: B+

 

3:30 PM: Miami (Fla.) at Virginia Tech—This game is the one of the top three of the day.  Two games into the season, this edition of Hurricanes is more like Camille than a tropical depression.  Quarterback Jacory Harris may be the top passer in the ACC, and he may soon move high up on the list of NFL prospects in the next couple of years.  He has a live and accurate arm, and his ability to pass on the run makes it difficult to sack him.  Virginia Tech beat Nebraska last week in a close game, and the Hokies have won 38 of the last 43 games at Lane Stadium.  If Miami can win this game, it will set up an even more interesting battle against Oklahoma next week.  PiRate Rating: Virginia Tech by 6.7/Mean Rating: Virginia Tech by 4/PiRate Viewer Rating: A+

 

4:30 PM: Troy at Arkansas State—There are two key games in the Sunbelt Conference this week.  Troy has been the Southern Cal of the SBC as of late, but the Trojans may not be quite as strong this year.  Arkansas State had an extra week to prepare for this game and gets the Trojans in Jonesboro.  These teams have split the last four games in this series, and the Red Wolves have what it takes to pull off the mild upset.  An ASU win throws this race wide open.  PiRate Rating: Troy by 2.4/Mean Rating: Troy by 1/PiRate Viewer Rating: B

 

6:00 PM: Florida at Kentucky—Two years ago, Kentucky upset number one LSU in Lexington.  No, we don’t expect a repeat Saturday.  The Wildcats start a grueling stretch of games that call for the Cats to play Alabama, at South Carolina, and at Auburn after this game, so UK could easily be 2-4 when Louisiana Monroe comes to town on October 24.  Florida needs something to show the pollsters and computers that they deserve their lofty ranking.  What should be an unbelievable year like Nebraska in 1995 could fail to materialize over the lack of all-conference receivers.  Can Tim Tebow do it all on the offensive side?  Think Larry Csonka with Bob Griese’s arm.  You bet he can lead the Gators to Pasadena in January.  PiRate Rating: Florida by 32.7/Mean Rating: Florida by 20/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

6:00 PM: Colorado State at BYU—Had the Cougars won last week in a grueling game, we were prepared to check this game as a possible letdown game and go with the Rams and the points.  The Cougars exited Lavell Edwards Stadium thoroughly bewitched, bothered, and bewildered after losing to Florida State 54-28.  Colorado State is 3-0 for the first time since 1994.  That team went 10-1 in the regular season including a 28-21 win at BYU.  We don’t expect a repeat in 2009, but a good showing could be the next step on the long climb back to the top in the MWC.  The Rams should win eight games this year, but this won’t be one of them.  PiRate Rating: BYU by 16.9/Mean Rating: BYU by 16/PiRate Viewer Rating: B+

 

7:00 PM: Arizona State at Georgia—Arizona State has never played in an SEC stadium (unless you count the 1951 visit to then Southwest Conference member Arkansas).  In their only two games against SEC teams, the Sun Devils lost at home to Georgia last year and at home to LSU in 2005.  ASU Coach Dennis Erickson knows a little about winning in the Deep South, having claimed a national title at Miami.  He may have an average squad or some degree better, but wins against Idaho State and Louisiana Monroe has yet to prove anything.  Georgia has already played three tough games, winning two SEC battles already.  The Bulldog defense has yet to shut anybody down, but the offense has looked impressive in wins over South Carolina and Arkansas.  This game will tell us a lot more about these two conferences as the season progresses, but it should be exciting itself.  The weather could be a major factor as well.  PiRate Rating: Georgia by 15.6/Mean Rating: Georgia by 7/PiRate Viewer Rating: A

 

7:00 PM: Army at Iowa State—Say What?  This game is an important one?  You betcha!  It looks like the “trade” of Gene Chizik to Auburn for Paul Rhoads could prove to be a win-win decision.  Iowa State could be looking at a possibility of sneaking into the eighth or ninth Big 12 bowl slot if they can win this game.  Kansas State, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Baylor present winnable games if the Cyclones can stop the option game of the Cadets.  On the other side of the equation, Army needs only to become bowl eligible to earn a guaranteed bowl bid.  The Cadets are 2-1 and have winnable games left against Tulane, Vanderbilt, Temple, VMI, North Texas, and of course Navy.  If Army wins this game, then we are confident in saying they will earn their first bowl trip since 1996.  This game becomes, in essence, a bowl qualifier.  That’s why it makes our list of the key 25 games this week.  PiRate Rating: ISU by 12.4/Mean Rating: ISU by 10/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

 

7:00 PM: Middle Tennessee at North Texas—This is the second key Sunbelt Conference game this week.  Middle Tennessee is the only SBC team to own four wins on the road against teams from BCS conferences, and the Blue Raiders made it number four last week by winning at Maryland (the second consecutive win over the Terps).  North Texas showed signs of life this year in winning at Ball State and giving Ohio U a great battle, but quarterback Riley Dodge went down with an injury in the third quarter of that game.  He missed last week’s blowout loss at Alabama, but he will return this week.  He gives the Mean Green a chance in this game.  PiRate Rating: Middle Tenn by 8.7/Mean Rating: Middle Tenn by 8/PiRate Viewer Rating: B

 

7:30 PM: Arizona at Oregon State—Both teams lost to undefeated, out-of-conference opponents last week, but the winner of this game could challenge in the Pac-10.  We don’t think either can go on the road and beat both Cal and USC (both play these two powers on the road), but the winner of this game should stay in contention for one of the Pac-10’s top four bowls.  PiRate Rating: Oregon State by 3.9/Mean Rating: Oregon State by 2/PiRate Viewer Rating: B

 

8:00 PM: Iowa at Penn State—Could this game be for the Big 10 Championship?  It’s possible.  Iowa stumbled out of the gate with Northern Iowa, but impressive wins over Iowa State and Arizona have the Hawkeyes 3-0 for the third time in four years.  This is more than just any big game for Penn State; the Nittany Lions came into this game last year ranked number three at 9-0 and lost 24-23 in Iowa City.  Penn State is undefeated again and ranked number five this time, but Joe Pa’s team has played three patsies.  The winner of this game will be the leader in the clubhouse in the Big 10, but with Michigan, Ohio State, and even Wisconsin still around, they won’t have it wrapped up.  PiRate Rating: Penn State by 5.6/Mean Rating: Penn State by 4/PiRate Viewer Rating: A+

 

9:00 PM: Washington at Stanford—Can you believe this game?  Washington is the second ever team to crack the AP poll rankings in September after being winless the year before (Florida in 1980).  Stanford is close to being 3-0, and the Cardinal have not been this good since 2001.  Simply put, the winner of this contest is going to a bowl game this year.  You’ll see two great quarterbacks in this one.  Stanford’s Andrew Luck is just a freshman, but he’s averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt and completing 62.3% of his passes.  Washington’s Jake Locker is leading the Pac-10 in total offense.  PiRate Rating: Stanford by 9.5/Mean Rating: Stanford by 8/PiRate Viewer Rating: A

 

9:15 PM: Texas Tech at Houston—These teams haven’t played each other since the Southwest Conference days, and it should be one of the most exciting games of the season.  You have two teams that average better than 400 passing yards per game.  Houston’s Case Keenum has a shot at an NFL career in a couple of years, while Texas Tech’s Taylor Potts may be the best quarterback Coach Mike Leach has placed in his offense.  PiRate Rating: Texas Tech by 6.2/Mean Rating: Texas Tech by 3/PiRate Viewer Rating: A-

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