The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 15, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:00 am

Monday, February 15, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
Florida St.Virginia0.7
LongwoodHampton7.0
PresbyterianUSC Upstate1.5
SIU EdwardsvilleMurray St.-8.1
Tennessee TechEastern Kentucky-9.4
Washington St.Washington6.3
ChattanoogaEast Tennessee-1.4
New OrleansStephen F. Austin-8.1
Jackson St.Texas Southern-0.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RkTeamRating
1Gonzaga128.1
2Baylor124.0
3Iowa120.1
4Michigan119.9
5Alabama119.5
6Illinois119.0
7Ohio St.118.1
8Houston117.8
9Loyola Chicago116.5
10USC115.9
11Virginia115.6
12Villanova115.6
13Creighton115.5
14Wisconsin115.1
15Colorado114.9
16West Virginia114.9
17Florida St.114.8
18Texas114.7
19Arkansas114.6
20Tennessee114.6
21Texas Tech114.2
22Kansas114.0
23Oklahoma113.9
24LSU113.6
25Purdue113.5
26Rutgers113.5
27San Diego St.113.5
28Florida113.3
29Indiana112.3
30BYU112.3
31Duke112.3
32Oregon112.1
33Seton Hall112.1
34Penn St.112.1
35Minnesota111.9
36Saint Louis111.9
37Virginia Tech111.9
38Louisville111.8
39Maryland111.7
40North Carolina111.7
41Arizona111.6
42Oklahoma St.111.6
43Missouri111.4
44Memphis111.3
45Connecticut111.3
46VCU111.2
47Utah St.111.1
48Wright St.110.8
49Auburn110.7
50Xavier110.6
51Syracuse110.6
52Richmond110.6
53SMU110.6
54Clemson110.5
55St. Bonaventure110.4
56Stanford110.4
57Mississippi110.4
58UCLA110.4
59Notre Dame110.3
60Georgia Tech110.3
61Drake110.1
62Kentucky109.7
63Boise St.109.6
64St. John’s109.4
65Toledo109.1
66Marshall109.0
67Colorado St.108.9
68Michigan St.108.7
69Utah108.6
70Davidson108.3
71Belmont108.3
72Northwestern108.2
73Providence107.9
74Rhode Island107.9
75Pittsburgh107.9
76South Carolina107.5
77North Texas107.3
78Western Kentucky107.2
79Buffalo107.1
80N.C. State107.1
81Wichita St.107.1
82Mississippi St.107.0
83Saint Mary’s107.0
84UC Santa Barbara107.0
85Arizona St.106.7
86Louisiana Tech106.5
87Georgia106.3
88Dayton106.3
89Marquette106.2
90Kent St.106.2
91San Francisco106.2
92Akron106.1
93Abilene Christian106.1
94Colgate106.1
95Cincinnati105.9
96Furman105.9
97Nevada105.9
98Georgetown105.9
99UAB105.8
100Missouri St.105.8
101Winthrop105.3
102Massachusetts105.1
103Washington St.104.9
104UCF104.8
105Ohio104.7
106Pepperdine104.6
107Duquesne104.6
108Liberty104.6
109Wake Forest104.5
110TCU104.5
111Tulsa104.4
112Vanderbilt104.4
113UNC Greensboro104.3
114Nebraska104.3
115Butler104.1
116UC Irvine104.1
117South Dakota St.104.0
118Vermont104.0
119Boston College103.9
120Eastern Washington103.9
121UC Riverside103.8
122Loyola Marymount103.7
123Oregon St.103.6
124Pacific103.6
125South Florida103.6
126DePaul103.4
127Indiana St.103.4
128East Tennessee St.103.2
129Grand Canyon103.2
130Miami FL103.1
131Texas A&M103.0
132Bowling Green102.5
133Bradley102.4
134California102.3
135East Carolina102.3
136Temple102.0
137Cal St. Bakersfield102.0
138Murray St.102.0
139Morehead St.101.8
140George Mason101.8
141Wofford101.6
142Tulane101.5
143Santa Clara101.5
144Siena101.4
145UNLV101.1
146Iowa St.101.1
147Georgia St.101.1
148Ball St.100.9
149Old Dominion100.9
150Cleveland St.100.7
151New Mexico St.100.7
152North Dakota St.100.6
153Mercer100.6
154Weber St.100.5
155UTEP100.5
156Texas St.100.5
157Detroit100.4
158Drexel100.4
159Chattanooga100.3
160Northeastern100.2
161Navy100.2
162Stephen F. Austin100.2
163Bellarmine100.2
164James Madison100.1
165Washington100.1
166Hofstra100.0
167UMBC100.0
168Sam Houston St.99.9
169Eastern Kentucky99.8
170VMI99.7
171Miami OH99.7
172Coastal Carolina99.6
173South Dakota99.6
174Northern Iowa99.6
175Monmouth99.6
176Oral Roberts99.5
177UTSA99.5
178Jacksonville St.99.4
179Rice99.4
180Saint Peter’s99.4
181La Salle99.3
182Army99.2
183Montana99.0
184Radford98.6
185Austin Peay98.4
186Hawaii98.3
187Kansas St.98.1
188Louisiana98.1
189San Diego97.9
190Wyoming97.9
191Fresno St.97.8
192Southern Utah97.8
193Appalachian St.97.7
194Nicholls St.97.6
195Florida Atlantic97.6
196South Alabama97.5
197Northern Kentucky97.5
198Charlotte97.5
199Bryant97.4
200Gardner Webb97.4
201Valparaiso97.3
202Illinois St.97.2
203Little Rock97.2
204George Washington97.1
205Evansville97.0
206Montana St.96.9
207UMKC96.9
208UNC Wilmington96.9
209Southern Illinois96.8
210UNC Asheville96.8
211Delaware96.8
212Mount St. Mary’s96.7
213Iona96.7
214Lipscomb96.6
215Canisius96.5
216Saint Joseph’s96.5
217Oakland96.5
218UC Davis96.4
219UT Rio Grande Valley96.4
220Charleston96.2
221Albany96.1
222Hartford96.0
223Northern Colorado95.8
224UC San Diego95.8
225Milwaukee95.8
226Niagara95.7
227Prairie View A&M95.7
228UMass Lowell95.7
229Loyola MD95.6
230Longwood95.5
231Sacramento St.95.5
232Norfolk St.95.5
233Youngstown St.95.5
234Texas Southern95.4
235Arkansas St.95.3
236UT Arlington95.3
237Stetson95.2
238Lafayette95.2
239Stony Brook95.2
240NJIT95.1
241American95.1
242Western Carolina94.9
243The Citadel94.8
244Green Bay94.8
245Bucknell94.8
246Wagner94.7
247Southern Miss94.7
248Morgan St.94.7
249Utah Valley94.5
250Cal Baptist94.5
251Seattle94.4
252Eastern Michigan94.4
253Campbell94.3
254Merrimack94.2
255Central Michigan94.2
256Western Michigan94.2
257Florida Gulf Coast94.2
258IUPUI94.2
259Georgia Southern94.1
260Illinois Chicago94.0
261William & Mary93.9
262Marist93.9
263Towson93.8
264Florida A&M93.8
265Middle Tennessee93.8
266Boston University93.7
267New Hampshire93.7
268New Mexico93.7
269Samford93.7
270Elon93.6
271Idaho St.93.6
272Portland St.93.6
273High Point93.5
274Long Beach St.93.3
275Cal St. Fullerton93.3
276FIU93.2
277Robert Morris93.1
278Jackson St.93.1
279Fordham93.0
280LIU92.9
281Troy92.8
282Fairleigh Dickinson92.6
283North Carolina Central92.5
284SIU Edwardsville92.4
285Quinnipiac92.4
286North Florida92.3
287St. Francis PA92.2
288Southern92.2
289Purdue Fort Wayne92.1
290Manhattan92.1
291Southeast Missouri St.92.0
292Cal St. Northridge91.9
293North Dakota91.9
294North Carolina A&T91.8
295Rider91.7
296North Alabama91.6
297Jacksonville91.5
298Howard (opted out)91.5
299Louisiana Monroe91.3
300Northern Illinois91.3
301Western Illinois91.3
302Sacred Heart91.1
303Tarleton St.91.0
304Northern Arizona90.9
305Air Force90.8
306Northwestern St.90.8
307Nebraska Omaha90.7
308New Orleans90.6
309Grambling St.90.6
310Incarnate Word90.5
311Eastern Illinois90.5
312USC Upstate90.4
313Presbyterian90.4
314St. Francis NY90.3
315Coppin St.90.2
316Hampton90.0
317Tennessee Tech89.9
318San Jose St.89.9
319Lehigh89.8
320Southeastern Louisiana89.7
321Fairfield89.6
322Tennessee St.89.4
323Houston Baptist89.1
324Holy Cross89.0
325Portland89.0
326Central Arkansas88.9
327Lamar88.6
328Binghamton88.2
329Charleston Southern88.2
330Maine (opted out)88.2
331Texas A&M Corpus Chris88.0
332Dixie St.87.9
333Central Connecticut87.7
334McNeese St.87.7
335Alabama A&M87.4
336Denver87.0
337Alcorn St.86.9
338Cal Poly86.9
339Kennesaw St.86.2
340Tennessee Martin86.1
341Idaho84.0
342Delaware St.83.3
343Arkansas Pine Bluff83.3
344Alabama St.83.1
345South Carolina St.81.3
346Chicago St.80.6
347Mississippi Valley St.70.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic 10
TeamRating
Saint Louis111.9
VCU111.2
Richmond110.6
St. Bonaventure110.4
Davidson108.3
Rhode Island107.9
Dayton106.3
Massachusetts105.1
Duquesne104.6
George Mason101.8
La Salle99.3
George Washington97.1
Saint Joseph’s96.5
Fordham93.0
American
TeamRating
Houston117.8
Memphis111.3
SMU110.6
Wichita St.107.1
Cincinnati105.9
UCF104.8
Tulsa104.4
South Florida103.6
East Carolina102.3
Temple102.0
Tulane101.5
Atlantic Coast
TeamRating
Virginia115.6
Florida St.114.8
Duke112.3
Virginia Tech111.9
Louisville111.8
North Carolina111.7
Syracuse110.6
Clemson110.5
Notre Dame110.3
Georgia Tech110.3
Pittsburgh107.9
N.C. State107.1
Wake Forest104.5
Boston College103.9
Miami FL103.1
America East
TeamRating
Vermont104.0
UMBC100.0
Albany96.1
Hartford96.0
UMass Lowell95.7
Stony Brook95.2
NJIT95.1
New Hampshire93.7
Binghamton88.2
Maine (opted out)88.2
Atlantic Sun
TeamRating
Liberty104.6
Bellarmine100.2
Lipscomb96.6
Stetson95.2
Florida Gulf Coast94.2
North Florida92.3
North Alabama91.6
Jacksonville91.5
Kennesaw St.86.2
Big 12
TeamRating
Baylor124.0
West Virginia114.9
Texas114.7
Texas Tech114.2
Kansas114.0
Oklahoma113.9
Oklahoma St.111.6
TCU104.5
Iowa St.101.1
Kansas St.98.1
Big East
TeamRating
Villanova115.6
Creighton115.5
Seton Hall112.1
Connecticut111.3
Xavier110.6
St. John’s109.4
Providence107.9
Marquette106.2
Georgetown105.9
Butler104.1
DePaul103.4
Big Sky
TeamRating
Eastern Washington103.9
Weber St.100.5
Montana99.0
Southern Utah97.8
Montana St.96.9
Northern Colorado95.8
Sacramento St.95.5
Idaho St.93.6
Portland St.93.6
Northern Arizona90.9
Idaho84.0
Big South
TeamRating
Winthrop105.3
Radford98.6
Gardner Webb97.4
UNC Asheville96.8
Longwood95.5
Campbell94.3
High Point93.5
USC Upstate90.4
Presbyterian90.4
Hampton90.0
Charleston Southern88.2
Big Ten
TeamRating
Iowa120.1
Michigan119.9
Illinois119.0
Ohio St.118.1
Wisconsin115.1
Purdue113.5
Rutgers113.5
Indiana112.3
Penn St.112.1
Minnesota111.9
Maryland111.7
Michigan St.108.7
Northwestern108.2
Nebraska104.3
Big West
TeamRating
UC Santa Barbara107.0
UC Irvine104.1
UC Riverside103.8
Cal St. Bakersfield102.0
Hawaii98.3
UC Davis96.4
UC San Diego95.8
Long Beach St.93.3
Cal St. Fullerton93.3
Cal St. Northridge91.9
Cal Poly86.9
Colonial
TeamRating
Drexel100.4
Northeastern100.2
James Madison100.1
Hofstra100.0
UNC Wilmington96.9
Delaware96.8
Charleston96.2
William & Mary93.9
Towson93.8
Elon93.6
Conference USA
TeamRating
Marshall109.0
North Texas107.3
Western Kentucky107.2
Louisiana Tech106.5
UAB105.8
Old Dominion100.9
UTEP100.5
UTSA99.5
Rice99.4
Florida Atlantic97.6
Charlotte97.5
Southern Miss94.7
Middle Tennessee93.8
FIU93.2
Horizon
TeamRating
Wright St.110.8
Cleveland St.100.7
Detroit100.4
Northern Kentucky97.5
Oakland96.5
Milwaukee95.8
Youngstown St.95.5
Green Bay94.8
IUPUI94.2
Illinois Chicago94.0
Robert Morris93.1
Purdue Fort Wayne92.1
Metro Atlantic
TeamRating
Siena101.4
Monmouth99.6
Saint Peter’s99.4
Iona96.7
Canisius96.5
Niagara95.7
Marist93.9
Quinnipiac92.4
Manhattan92.1
Rider91.7
Fairfield89.6
Mid-American
TeamRating
Toledo109.1
Buffalo107.1
Kent St.106.2
Akron106.1
Ohio104.7
Bowling Green102.5
Ball St.100.9
Miami OH99.7
Eastern Michigan94.4
Central Michigan94.2
Western Michigan94.2
Northern Illinois91.3
Mideastern Athletic
TeamRating
Norfolk St.95.5
Morgan St.94.7
Florida A&M93.8
North Carolina Central92.5
North Carolina A&T91.8
Howard (opted out)91.5
Coppin St.90.2
Delaware St.83.3
South Carolina St.81.3
Missouri Valley
TeamRating
Loyola Chicago116.5
Drake110.1
Missouri St.105.8
Indiana St.103.4
Bradley102.4
Northern Iowa99.6
Valparaiso97.3
Illinois St.97.2
Evansville97.0
Southern Illinois96.8
Mountain West
TeamRating
San Diego St.113.5
Utah St.111.1
Boise St.109.6
Colorado St.108.9
Nevada105.9
UNLV101.1
Wyoming97.9
Fresno St.97.8
New Mexico93.7
Air Force90.8
San Jose St.89.9
Northeast
TeamRating
Bryant97.4
Mount St. Mary’s96.7
Wagner94.7
Merrimack94.2
LIU92.9
Fairleigh Dickinson92.6
St. Francis PA92.2
Sacred Heart91.1
St. Francis NY90.3
Central Connecticut87.7
Ohio Valley
TeamRating
Belmont108.3
Murray St.102.0
Morehead St.101.8
Eastern Kentucky99.8
Jacksonville St.99.4
Austin Peay98.4
SIU Edwardsville92.4
Southeast Missouri St.92.0
Eastern Illinois90.5
Tennessee Tech89.9
Tennessee St.89.4
Tennessee Martin86.1
Pac-12
TeamRating
USC115.9
Colorado114.9
Oregon112.1
Arizona111.6
Stanford110.4
UCLA110.4
Utah108.6
Arizona St.106.7
Washington St.104.9
Oregon St.103.6
California102.3
Washington100.1
Patriot
TeamRating
Colgate106.1
Navy100.2
Army99.2
Loyola MD95.6
Lafayette95.2
American95.1
Bucknell94.8
Boston University93.7
Lehigh89.8
Holy Cross89.0
Southeastern
TeamRating
Alabama119.5
Arkansas114.6
Tennessee114.6
LSU113.6
Florida113.3
Missouri111.4
Auburn110.7
Mississippi110.4
Kentucky109.7
South Carolina107.5
Mississippi St.107.0
Georgia106.3
Vanderbilt104.4
Texas A&M103.0
Southern
TeamRating
Furman105.9
UNC Greensboro104.3
East Tennessee St.103.2
Wofford101.6
Mercer100.6
Chattanooga100.3
VMI99.7
Western Carolina94.9
The Citadel94.8
Samford93.7
Southland
TeamRating
Abilene Christian106.1
Stephen F. Austin100.2
Sam Houston St.99.9
Nicholls St.97.6
Northwestern St.90.8
New Orleans90.6
Incarnate Word90.5
Southeastern Louisiana89.7
Houston Baptist89.1
Central Arkansas88.9
Lamar88.6
Texas A&M Corpus Chris88.0
McNeese St.87.7
Summit
TeamRating
South Dakota St.104.0
North Dakota St.100.6
South Dakota99.6
Oral Roberts99.5
UMKC96.9
North Dakota91.9
Western Illinois91.3
Nebraska Omaha90.7
Denver87.0
Southwestern Athletic
TeamRating
Prairie View A&M95.7
Texas Southern95.4
Jackson St.93.1
Southern92.2
Grambling St.90.6
Alabama A&M87.4
Alcorn St.86.9
Arkansas Pine Bluff83.3
Alabama St.83.1
Mississippi Valley St.70.7
Sun Belt
TeamRating
Georgia St.101.1
Texas St.100.5
Coastal Carolina99.6
Louisiana98.1
Appalachian St.97.7
South Alabama97.5
Little Rock97.2
Arkansas St.95.3
UT Arlington95.3
Georgia Southern94.1
Troy92.8
Louisiana Monroe91.3
Western Athletic
TeamRating
Grand Canyon103.2
New Mexico St.100.7
UT Rio Grande Valley96.4
Utah Valley94.5
Cal Baptist94.5
Seattle94.4
Tarleton St.91.0
Dixie St.87.9
Chicago St.80.6
West Coast
TeamRating
Gonzaga128.1
BYU112.3
Saint Mary’s107.0
San Francisco106.2
Pepperdine104.6
Loyola Marymount103.7
Pacific103.6
Santa Clara101.5
San Diego97.9
Portland89.0

Alphabetically

RkTeamRating
93Abilene Christian106.1
305Air Force90.8
92Akron106.1
5Alabama119.5
335Alabama A&M87.4
344Alabama St.83.1
221Albany96.1
337Alcorn St.86.9
241American95.1
193Appalachian St.97.7
41Arizona111.6
85Arizona St.106.7
19Arkansas114.6
343Arkansas Pine Bluff83.3
235Arkansas St.95.3
182Army99.2
49Auburn110.7
185Austin Peay98.4
148Ball St.100.9
2Baylor124.0
163Bellarmine100.2
71Belmont108.3
328Binghamton88.2
63Boise St.109.6
119Boston College103.9
266Boston University93.7
132Bowling Green102.5
133Bradley102.4
199Bryant97.4
245Bucknell94.8
79Buffalo107.1
115Butler104.1
30BYU112.3
250Cal Baptist94.5
338Cal Poly86.9
137Cal St. Bakersfield102.0
275Cal St. Fullerton93.3
292Cal St. Northridge91.9
134California102.3
253Campbell94.3
215Canisius96.5
326Central Arkansas88.9
333Central Connecticut87.7
255Central Michigan94.2
220Charleston96.2
329Charleston Southern88.2
198Charlotte97.5
159Chattanooga100.3
346Chicago St.80.6
95Cincinnati105.9
54Clemson110.5
150Cleveland St.100.7
172Coastal Carolina99.6
94Colgate106.1
15Colorado114.9
67Colorado St.108.9
45Connecticut111.3
315Coppin St.90.2
13Creighton115.5
70Davidson108.3
88Dayton106.3
211Delaware96.8
342Delaware St.83.3
336Denver87.0
126DePaul103.4
157Detroit100.4
332Dixie St.87.9
61Drake110.1
158Drexel100.4
31Duke112.3
107Duquesne104.6
135East Carolina102.3
128East Tennessee St.103.2
311Eastern Illinois90.5
169Eastern Kentucky99.8
252Eastern Michigan94.4
120Eastern Washington103.9
270Elon93.6
205Evansville97.0
321Fairfield89.6
282Fairleigh Dickinson92.6
276FIU93.2
28Florida113.3
264Florida A&M93.8
195Florida Atlantic97.6
257Florida Gulf Coast94.2
17Florida St.114.8
279Fordham93.0
191Fresno St.97.8
96Furman105.9
200Gardner Webb97.4
140George Mason101.8
204George Washington97.1
98Georgetown105.9
87Georgia106.3
259Georgia Southern94.1
147Georgia St.101.1
60Georgia Tech110.3
1Gonzaga128.1
309Grambling St.90.6
129Grand Canyon103.2
244Green Bay94.8
316Hampton90.0
222Hartford96.0
186Hawaii98.3
273High Point93.5
166Hofstra100.0
324Holy Cross89.0
8Houston117.8
323Houston Baptist89.1
298Howard (opted out)91.5
341Idaho84.0
271Idaho St.93.6
6Illinois119.0
260Illinois Chicago94.0
202Illinois St.97.2
310Incarnate Word90.5
29Indiana112.3
127Indiana St.103.4
213Iona96.7
3Iowa120.1
146Iowa St.101.1
258IUPUI94.2
278Jackson St.93.1
297Jacksonville91.5
178Jacksonville St.99.4
164James Madison100.1
22Kansas114.0
187Kansas St.98.1
339Kennesaw St.86.2
90Kent St.106.2
62Kentucky109.7
181La Salle99.3
238Lafayette95.2
327Lamar88.6
319Lehigh89.8
108Liberty104.6
214Lipscomb96.6
203Little Rock97.2
280LIU92.9
274Long Beach St.93.3
230Longwood95.5
188Louisiana98.1
299Louisiana Monroe91.3
86Louisiana Tech106.5
38Louisville111.8
9Loyola Chicago116.5
122Loyola Marymount103.7
229Loyola MD95.6
24LSU113.6
330Maine (opted out)88.2
290Manhattan92.1
262Marist93.9
89Marquette106.2
66Marshall109.0
39Maryland111.7
102Massachusetts105.1
334McNeese St.87.7
44Memphis111.3
153Mercer100.6
254Merrimack94.2
130Miami FL103.1
171Miami OH99.7
4Michigan119.9
68Michigan St.108.7
265Middle Tennessee93.8
225Milwaukee95.8
35Minnesota111.9
57Mississippi110.4
82Mississippi St.107.0
347Mississippi Valley St.70.7
43Missouri111.4
100Missouri St.105.8
175Monmouth99.6
183Montana99.0
206Montana St.96.9
139Morehead St.101.8
248Morgan St.94.7
212Mount St. Mary’s96.7
138Murray St.102.0
80N.C. State107.1
161Navy100.2
114Nebraska104.3
307Nebraska Omaha90.7
97Nevada105.9
267New Hampshire93.7
268New Mexico93.7
151New Mexico St.100.7
308New Orleans90.6
226Niagara95.7
194Nicholls St.97.6
240NJIT95.1
232Norfolk St.95.5
296North Alabama91.6
40North Carolina111.7
294North Carolina A&T91.8
283North Carolina Central92.5
293North Dakota91.9
152North Dakota St.100.6
286North Florida92.3
77North Texas107.3
160Northeastern100.2
304Northern Arizona90.9
223Northern Colorado95.8
300Northern Illinois91.3
174Northern Iowa99.6
197Northern Kentucky97.5
72Northwestern108.2
306Northwestern St.90.8
59Notre Dame110.3
217Oakland96.5
105Ohio104.7
7Ohio St.118.1
23Oklahoma113.9
42Oklahoma St.111.6
149Old Dominion100.9
176Oral Roberts99.5
32Oregon112.1
123Oregon St.103.6
124Pacific103.6
34Penn St.112.1
106Pepperdine104.6
75Pittsburgh107.9
325Portland89.0
272Portland St.93.6
227Prairie View A&M95.7
313Presbyterian90.4
73Providence107.9
25Purdue113.5
289Purdue Fort Wayne92.1
285Quinnipiac92.4
184Radford98.6
74Rhode Island107.9
179Rice99.4
52Richmond110.6
295Rider91.7
277Robert Morris93.1
26Rutgers113.5
231Sacramento St.95.5
302Sacred Heart91.1
216Saint Joseph’s96.5
36Saint Louis111.9
83Saint Mary’s107.0
180Saint Peter’s99.4
168Sam Houston St.99.9
269Samford93.7
189San Diego97.9
27San Diego St.113.5
91San Francisco106.2
318San Jose St.89.9
143Santa Clara101.5
251Seattle94.4
33Seton Hall112.1
144Siena101.4
284SIU Edwardsville92.4
53SMU110.6
196South Alabama97.5
76South Carolina107.5
345South Carolina St.81.3
173South Dakota99.6
117South Dakota St.104.0
125South Florida103.6
291Southeast Missouri St.92.0
320Southeastern Louisiana89.7
288Southern92.2
209Southern Illinois96.8
247Southern Miss94.7
192Southern Utah97.8
55St. Bonaventure110.4
314St. Francis NY90.3
287St. Francis PA92.2
64St. John’s109.4
56Stanford110.4
162Stephen F. Austin100.2
237Stetson95.2
239Stony Brook95.2
51Syracuse110.6
303Tarleton St.91.0
110TCU104.5
136Temple102.0
20Tennessee114.6
340Tennessee Martin86.1
322Tennessee St.89.4
317Tennessee Tech89.9
18Texas114.7
131Texas A&M103.0
331Texas A&M Corpus Chris88.0
234Texas Southern95.4
156Texas St.100.5
21Texas Tech114.2
243The Citadel94.8
65Toledo109.1
263Towson93.8
281Troy92.8
142Tulane101.5
111Tulsa104.4
99UAB105.8
218UC Davis96.4
116UC Irvine104.1
121UC Riverside103.8
224UC San Diego95.8
84UC Santa Barbara107.0
104UCF104.8
58UCLA110.4
228UMass Lowell95.7
167UMBC100.0
207UMKC96.9
210UNC Asheville96.8
113UNC Greensboro104.3
208UNC Wilmington96.9
145UNLV101.1
10USC115.9
312USC Upstate90.4
236UT Arlington95.3
219UT Rio Grande Valley96.4
69Utah108.6
47Utah St.111.1
249Utah Valley94.5
155UTEP100.5
177UTSA99.5
201Valparaiso97.3
112Vanderbilt104.4
46VCU111.2
118Vermont104.0
12Villanova115.6
11Virginia115.6
37Virginia Tech111.9
170VMI99.7
246Wagner94.7
109Wake Forest104.5
165Washington100.1
103Washington St.104.9
154Weber St.100.5
16West Virginia114.9
242Western Carolina94.9
301Western Illinois91.3
78Western Kentucky107.2
256Western Michigan94.2
81Wichita St.107.1
261William & Mary93.9
101Winthrop105.3
14Wisconsin115.1
141Wofford101.6
48Wright St.110.8
190Wyoming97.9
50Xavier110.6
233Youngstown St.95.5

February 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 5, 2021

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:07 pm
Date2/5/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1BaylorGonzagaMichiganVillanova
2HoustonOhio St.TexasIowa
3AlabamaIllinoisVirginiaMissouri
4OklahomaTexas TechVirginia TechWisconsin
5TennesseeCreightonFlorida St.West Virginia
6FloridaUCLAPurdueOklahoma St.
7LouisvilleMinnesotaKansasUSC
8XavierColoradoRutgersOregon
9DrakeClemsonBYUBoise St.
10ConnecticutSt. BonaventureNorth CarolinaSan Diego St.
11Colorado St.LSUIndianaArkansas
12WinthropToledoLoyola (Chi.)RichmondStanfordUtah St.
13BelmontUNCGUABLouisiana
14Stephen F. AustinSouth DakotaLibertyUC-Irvine
15SienaGrand CanyonCleveland St.Vermont
16NavyNortheasternBryantMontana St.N. C. A&TPrairie View

Bubble
Maryland
Syracuse
Saint Louis
VCU
SMU
Duke
Seton Hall
Western Ky.

PiRate Ratings for 2/5/2021

RkTeamConf.Rating
1GonzagaWCC126.0
2BaylorB12124.4
3MichiganBTen119.1
4AlabamaSEC118.8
5IowaBTen118.4
6IllinoisBTen118.3
7HoustonAAC117.1
8Ohio St.BTen116.7
9VillanovaBE116.0
10TexasB12115.8
11WisconsinBTen115.4
12Texas TechB12115.1
13Florida St.ACC115.0
14Loyola ChicagoMVC114.9
15VirginiaACC114.8
16TennesseeSEC114.6
17CreightonBE114.5
18USCP12114.4
19ColoradoP12114.1
20West VirginiaB12114.0
21OklahomaB12114.0
22ArkansasSEC113.9
23KansasB12113.7
24RutgersBTen113.3
25PurdueBTen113.3
26FloridaSEC113.2
27San Diego St.MWC113.1
28DukeACC112.6
29IndianaBTen112.5
30MissouriSEC112.5
31Penn St.BTen112.3
32Oklahoma St.B12112.2
33ConnecticutBE111.9
34LSUSEC111.8
35LouisvilleACC111.8
36MinnesotaBTen111.7
37Virginia TechACC111.7
38OregonP12111.7
39North CarolinaACC111.7
40BYUWCC111.7
41ArizonaP12111.7
42UCLAP12111.6
43Seton HallBE111.6
44MemphisAAC111.4
45StanfordP12111.3
46XavierBE111.1
47SyracuseACC111.1
48Utah St.MWC111.1
49MarylandBTen111.0
50St. BonaventureA10110.6
51Saint LouisA10110.5
52AuburnSEC110.5
53RichmondA10110.5
54DrakeMVC110.4
55VCUA10110.4
56ToledoMAC110.2
57KentuckySEC110.1
58Boise St.MWC109.9
59SMUAAC109.8
60ClemsonACC109.7
61Georgia TechACC109.7
62Michigan St.BTen109.6
63Wright St.Hor109.2
64St. John’sBE109.1
65Notre DameACC109.1
66Rhode IslandA10108.8
67UtahP12108.7
68Colorado St.MWC108.7
69MississippiSEC108.7
70DavidsonA10108.5
71South CarolinaSEC108.3
72Mississippi St.SEC108.0
73N.C. StateACC108.0
74NorthwesternBTen108.0
75MarshallCUSA107.9
76ProvidenceBE107.8
77Arizona St.P12107.6
78PittsburghACC107.5
79MarquetteBE107.5
80Wichita St.AAC107.2
81San FranciscoWCC107.2
82Saint Mary’sWCC107.0
83DaytonA10106.8
84CincinnatiAAC106.7
85Western KentuckyCUSA106.7
86GeorgiaSEC106.4
87UC Santa BarbaraBW106.2
88BelmontOVC106.1
89North TexasCUSA106.1
90TulsaAAC106.0
91FurmanSou105.9
92UABCUSA105.6
93Kent St.MAC105.4
94GeorgetownBE105.3
95TCUB12105.3
96Boston CollegeACC105.2
97BuffaloMAC105.1
98DuquesneA10105.0
99ColgatePat104.9
100South Dakota St.Sum104.9
101NevadaMWC104.8
102ButlerBE104.7
103Abilene ChristianSthlnd104.7
104VermontAE104.7
105AkronMAC104.6
106DePaulBE104.5
107South FloridaAAC104.5
108UNC GreensboroSou104.5
109Louisiana TechCUSA104.4
110MassachusettsA10104.2
111LibertyASun104.2
112OhioMAC104.1
113UCFAAC104.1
114Washington St.P12103.8
115WinthropBSou103.7
116UC IrvineBW103.7
117Oregon St.P12103.5
118Miami FLACC103.5
119Wake ForestACC103.5
120Loyola MarymountWCC103.4
121Grand CanyonWAC103.3
122NebraskaBTen103.3
123Texas A&MSEC102.9
124BradleyMVC102.9
125PepperdineWCC102.8
126PacificWCC102.8
127East Tennessee St.Sou102.7
128Iowa St.B12102.5
129Missouri St.MVC102.5
130VanderbiltSEC102.4
131Indiana St.MVC102.4
132UC RiversideBW102.4
133Georgia St.SB102.4
134East CarolinaAAC102.3
135WoffordSou102.3
136New Mexico St.WAC102.1
137Eastern WashingtonBSky102.1
138SienaMAAC101.5
139UNLVMWC101.4
140Santa ClaraWCC101.2
141Northern IowaMVC101.2
142Bowling GreenMAC101.1
143TempleAAC101.0
144Old DominionCUSA101.0
145George MasonA10101.0
146Cal St. BakersfieldBW100.9
147CaliforniaP12100.8
148Morehead St.OVC100.8
149NortheasternCAA100.7
150North Dakota St.Sum100.6
151Murray St.OVC100.5
152Coastal CarolinaSB100.4
153DrexelCAA100.3
154HofstraCAA100.3
155Texas St.SB100.3
156MercerSou100.2
157Stephen F. AustinSthlnd100.2
158WashingtonP12100.1
159South DakotaSum100.1
160Miami OHMAC99.9
161La SalleA1099.9
162NavyPat99.9
163Saint Peter’sMAAC99.9
164MonmouthMAAC99.8
165Little RockSB99.7
166CharlotteCUSA99.6
167LouisianaSB99.6
168Weber St.BSky99.6
169Cleveland St.Hor99.6
170UTEPCUSA99.6
171Eastern KentuckyOVC99.4
172MontanaBSky99.3
173Ball St.MAC99.1
174ArmyPat99.1
175James MadisonCAA98.9
176TulaneAAC98.9
177UMBCAE98.7
178DetroitHor98.6
179Oral RobertsSum98.5
180ChattanoogaSou98.5
181Florida AtlanticCUSA98.5
182VMISou98.4
183Austin PeayOVC98.0
184Montana St.BSky97.9
185Fresno St.MWC97.9
186Appalachian St.SB97.9
187WyomingMWC97.9
188San DiegoWCC97.8
189Kansas St.B1297.7
190Sam Houston St.Sthlnd97.7
191BryantNEC97.7
192Jacksonville St.OVC97.5
193Southern UtahBSky97.5
194Nicholls St.Sthlnd97.4
195Southern IllinoisMVC97.4
196BellarmineASun97.4
197RadfordBSou97.4
198HawaiiBW97.4
199RiceCUSA97.3
200George WashingtonA1097.1
201Gardner WebbBSou97.0
202UT ArlingtonSB96.8
203IonaMAAC96.8
204DelawareCAA96.8
205OaklandHor96.8
206UNC WilmingtonCAA96.7
207LafayettePat96.6
208CharlestonCAA96.6
209UTSACUSA96.6
210LipscombASun96.5
211UC DavisBW96.5
212South AlabamaSB96.4
213Saint Joseph’sA1096.4
214UMKCSum96.3
215UNC AshevilleBSou96.1
216FIUCUSA96.1
217UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC96.1
218MilwaukeeHor96.0
219UC San DiegoBW95.9
220StetsonASun95.9
221HartfordAE95.9
222ValparaisoMVC95.9
223AlbanyAE95.9
224NiagaraMAAC95.8
225UMass LowellAE95.8
226Sacramento St.BSky95.8
227Mount St. Mary’sNEC95.8
228Northern KentuckyHor95.8
229Northern ColoradoBSky95.7
230EvansvilleMVC95.7
231Prairie View A&MSWAC95.7
232Illinois ChicagoHor95.6
233Stony BrookAE95.4
234CanisiusMAAC95.3
235Illinois St.MVC95.3
236Texas SouthernSWAC95.3
237Norfolk St.MEAC95.2
238Western CarolinaSou95.1
239Southern MissCUSA95.0
240NJITAE95.0
241Green BayHor95.0
242BucknellPat94.8
243AmericanPat94.8
244Youngstown St.Hor94.7
245Morgan St.MEAC94.6
246Utah ValleyWAC94.5
247Boston UniversityPat94.3
248FordhamA1094.3
249North AlabamaASun94.3
250LIUNEC94.3
251Central MichiganMAC94.2
252WagnerNEC94.2
253Eastern MichiganMAC94.2
254LongwoodBSou94.2
255Western MichiganMAC94.0
256Loyola MDPat94.0
257SamfordSou94.0
258ElonCAA93.9
259William & MaryCAA93.8
260Purdue Fort WayneHor93.8
261Robert MorrisHor93.8
262Georgia SouthernSB93.8
263TowsonCAA93.8
264MaristMAAC93.7
265TroySB93.7
266New MexicoMWC93.6
267North Carolina CentralMEAC93.5
268New HampshireAE93.4
269CampbellBSou93.4
270Arkansas St.SB93.4
271QuinnipiacMAAC93.4
272High PointBSou93.4
273Cal BaptistWAC93.3
274Middle TennesseeCUSA93.3
275SouthernSWAC93.1
276Idaho St.BSky93.1
277North FloridaASun93.0
278Cal St. FullertonBW92.8
279Florida Gulf CoastASun92.8
280Portland St.BSky92.8
281Long Beach St.BW92.7
282SeattleWAC92.5
283Fairleigh DickinsonNEC92.5
284Nebraska OmahaSum92.4
285Southeast Missouri St.OVC92.3
286St. Francis PANEC92.3
287MerrimackNEC92.2
288Jackson St.SWAC92.2
289Florida A&MMEAC92.2
290The CitadelSou92.0
291IUPUIHor91.9
292JacksonvilleASun91.9
293Cal St. NorthridgeBW91.8
294ManhattanMAAC91.7
295RiderMAAC91.7
296SIU EdwardsvilleOVC91.6
297North Carolina A&TMEAC91.4
298St. Francis NYNEC91.3
299Northern IllinoisMAC91.3
300Louisiana MonroeSB91.3
301USC UpstateBSou91.2
302Central ArkansasSthlnd91.1
303HowardMEAC91.0
304Sacred HeartNEC91.0
305Air ForceMWC90.9
306North DakotaSum90.9
307Northern ArizonaBSky90.8
308Northwestern St.Sthlnd90.8
309Tarleton St.WAC90.7
310HamptonBSou90.6
311New OrleansSthlnd90.6
312Eastern IllinoisOVC90.5
313Tennessee St.OVC90.3
314San Jose St.MWC90.2
315Tennessee TechOVC89.9
316FairfieldMAAC89.9
317Incarnate WordSthlnd89.8
318Western IllinoisSum89.8
319LehighPat89.8
320PortlandWCC89.7
321Grambling St.SWAC89.7
322PresbyterianBSou89.5
323Southeastern LouisianaSthlnd89.4
324Central ConnecticutNEC89.4
325Coppin St.MEAC89.1
326Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSthlnd88.6
327LamarSthlnd88.6
328Houston BaptistSthlnd88.4
329Dixie St.WAC88.3
330MaineAE88.1
331Alabama A&MSWAC88.1
332BinghamtonAE88.0
333Holy CrossPat87.9
334Charleston SouthernBSou87.5
335DenverSum87.4
336Cal PolyBW87.2
337Alcorn St.SWAC87.1
338McNeese St.Sthlnd86.7
339Kennesaw St.ASun85.7
340Tennessee MartinOVC85.6
341IdahoBSky84.6
342Alabama St.SWAC83.1
343Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC83.1
344Delaware St.MEAC82.4
345South Carolina St.MEAC81.3
346Chicago St.WAC80.3
347Mississippi Valley St.SWAC70.7

Note–Full ratings and predictions on some games commence next week.

September 15, 2020

PiRate Ratings NFL for Week 2

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:34 am

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBiasTotal
ClevelandCincinnati3.22.73.144
ChicagoN.Y. Giants7.36.48.341.5
DallasAtlanta2.63.92.849
Green BayDetroit9.28.99.447.5
TennesseeJacksonville5.66.26.241
IndianapolisMinnesota0.40.3-0.145
MiamiBuffalo-5.8-5.5-6.541
N.Y. JetsSan Francisco-7.9-6.2-8.344
PhiladelphiaLA Rams0.00.1-1.648
PittsburghDenver5.15.85.032.5
Tampa BayCarolina7.17.77.559.5
ArizonaWashington8.06.98.049.5
LA ChargersKansas City-7.8-8.6-7.544.5
HoustonBaltimore-7.4-8.1-7.949
SeattleNew England6.06.86.045.5
Las VegasNew Orleans-7.6-6.8-7.948

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo101.3102.3101.4101.715.51-0
New England101.1100.7101.1101.018.51-0
N. Y. Jets94.795.894.194.9190-1
Miami93.594.892.993.725.50-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore110.2110.1110.7110.325.51-0
Pittsburgh102.0102.6101.9102.2171-0
Cleveland97.096.896.996.9220-1
Cincinnati94.895.194.894.9220-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Houston101.3100.5101.3101.023.50-1
Tennessee100.0100.3100.7100.321.51-0
Indianapolis99.799.499.399.421.50-1
Jacksonville95.995.696.095.819.51-0

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.4108.2107.8107.824.51-0
Denver98.998.898.998.915.50-1
LA Chargers98.198.198.898.3201-0
Las Vegas97.898.197.697.822.51-0


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas100.8101.0100.9100.923.50-1
Philadelphia98.598.497.998.223.00-1
Washington95.695.995.695.7211-0
N.Y. Giants94.494.893.794.325.00-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.0102.9103.1103.022.51-0
Minnesota100.8100.6100.9100.723.50-1
Chicago100.299.7100.5100.116.51-0
Detroit95.395.595.295.3250-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.9107.4108.0107.825.51-0
Tampa Bay102.0101.8101.9101.9320-1
Atlanta100.299.1100.199.825.50-1
Carolina96.495.695.996.027.50-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco105.1104.5104.9104.9250-1
Seattle104.6105.0104.6104.8271-0
Arizona101.1100.3101.1100.828.51-0
LA Rams100.5100.3101.5100.8251-0

August 31, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sep 3-7

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:11 am

This Week’s Games

Favorite

Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Southern Miss.

South Alabama

7.3

6.5

9.3

Army

Middle Tenn.

5.2

6.9

4.5

Texas St.

SMU

-22.6

-21.1

-24.1

Memphis

Arkansas St.

18.0

13.9

17.7

Navy

BYU

4.9

4.5

3.3

FBS vs. FCS (PiRate Only)

FBS

FCS

PiRate

UAB

Cent. Arkansas

8.6

Marshall

E. Kentucky

21.5

North Texas

Hou. Baptist

26.9

UTEP

S F Austin

7.8

Note: Game Spreads Have Been Adjusted From Ratings Due To Covid-19 Opt-outs.

This Week’s Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg.

1

Clemson

123.6

124.5

127.8

125.3

2

L S U

123.2

122.5

125.8

123.8

3

Alabama

121.4

122.3

123.3

122.3

4

Georgia

121.1

119.4

121.9

120.8

5

Florida

119.7

119.3

120.8

119.9

6

Auburn

118.0

116.6

117.9

117.5

7

Notre Dame

117.5

116.5

117.7

117.2

8

Oklahoma

116.9

116.9

117.1

117.0

9

Texas A&M

115.7

115.8

115.9

115.8

10

Texas

115.2

113.6

115.3

114.7

11

Oklahoma St.

113.4

112.8

113.6

113.3

12

N. Carolina

111.3

111.5

112.5

111.8

13

Kentucky

110.3

110.5

111.5

110.8

14

Iowa St.

110.9

110.2

110.7

110.6

15

Louisville

110.3

110.9

109.1

110.1

16

Virginia Tech

109.2

109.2

111.3

109.9

17

UCF

109.2

109.6

110.5

109.8

18

Tennessee

109.1

109.0

109.6

109.2

19

Memphis

110.0

108.0

109.3

109.1

20

Cincinnati

109.5

108.3

109.4

109.1

21

S. Carolina

109.3

107.0

108.7

108.3

22

Baylor

108.0

108.1

108.2

108.1

23

Ole Miss

106.7

106.1

108.4

107.1

24

Kansas St.

107.4

106.0

107.5

107.0

25

Florida St.

107.4

105.8

107.7

107.0

26

Virginia

106.6

106.1

106.3

106.4

27

T C U

105.0

102.8

105.1

104.3

28

Houston

104.7

103.2

103.2

103.7

29

Pittsburgh

102.9

104.7

103.1

103.6

30

Miss. St.

104.1

102.5

103.8

103.4

31

Appal. St.

103.0

102.1

104.4

103.2

32

Navy

104.4

102.4

102.3

103.0

33

Louisiana

102.5

101.9

102.3

102.2

34

SMU

102.1

101.5

101.5

101.7

35

BYU

101.9

100.4

101.5

101.3

36

Miami (Fla.)

100.3

103.0

100.3

101.2

37

W. Virginia

100.6

100.7

100.7

100.7

38

Duke

100.3

101.0

99.5

100.2

39

Missouri

99.1

99.2

100.3

99.5

40

Boston Coll.

99.6

99.3

99.6

99.5

41

Texas Tech

99.7

98.5

99.9

99.4

42

Wake Forest

98.4

99.6

98.1

98.7

43

Georgia Tech

98.7

98.0

97.3

98.0

44

W. Kentucky

96.0

97.1

97.0

96.7

45

Temple

96.4

97.0

95.3

96.2

46

Tulsa

97.6

95.7

95.1

96.1

47

Georgia Sou.

95.2

96.2

96.5

96.0

48

Florida Int’l.

95.4

95.2

95.8

95.5

49

Syracuse

94.3

96.6

95.1

95.4

50

Marshall

95.9

95.5

94.6

95.3

51

Tulane

94.8

95.0

94.1

94.6

52

Arkansas

94.7

95.8

92.4

94.3

53

USF

95.3

94.0

93.4

94.2

54

NC State

93.5

93.7

93.6

93.6

55

U A B

93.3

94.0

93.0

93.4

56

Vanderbilt

93.3

92.7

91.8

92.6

57

Arkansas St.

92.0

94.1

91.6

92.6

58

E. Carolina

92.1

92.6

90.9

91.9

59

Southern Miss.

91.1

91.6

91.2

91.3

60

Army

90.1

92.5

89.8

90.8

61

Kansas

89.8

90.0

88.5

89.5

62

Coastal Car.

88.3

88.9

88.7

88.6

63

Middle Tenn.

87.5

88.1

87.8

87.8

64

Troy

87.0

89.0

87.3

87.8

65

Georgia St.

87.8

87.5

87.7

87.7

66

La. Tech

86.5

88.0

87.7

87.4

67

Liberty

86.2

89.1

86.8

87.4

68

Charlotte

86.2

86.5

86.3

86.4

69

Rice

86.2

84.2

85.6

85.3

70

UL-Monroe

84.7

84.9

83.2

84.3

71

S. Alabama

82.8

84.1

80.9

82.6

72

Fla. Atlantic

81.3

83.0

81.4

81.9

73

North Texas

78.1

79.3

78.5

78.7

74

Texas St.

78.0

78.9

76.0

77.6

75

U T S A

76.6

76.3

75.9

76.3

76

U T E P

64.0

67.0

63.6

64.9

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

AAC

Overall

UCF

109.2

109.6

110.5

109.8

0-0

0-0

Memphis

110.0

108.0

109.3

109.1

0-0

0-0

Cincinnati

109.5

108.3

109.4

109.1

0-0

0-0

Houston

104.7

103.2

103.2

103.7

0-0

0-0

Navy

104.4

102.4

102.3

103.0

0-0

0-0

SMU

102.1

101.5

101.5

101.7

0-0

0-0

Temple

96.4

97.0

95.3

96.2

0-0

0-0

Tulsa

97.6

95.7

95.1

96.1

0-0

0-0

Tulane

94.8

95.0

94.1

94.6

0-0

0-0

USF

95.3

94.0

93.4

94.2

0-0

0-0

E. Carolina

92.1

92.6

90.9

91.9

0-0

0-0

AAC Averages

101.5

100.7

100.4

100.9

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

ACC

Overall

Clemson

123.6

124.5

127.8

125.3

0-0

0-0

Notre Dame

117.5

116.5

117.7

117.2

0-0

0-0

N. Carolina

111.3

111.5

112.5

111.8

0-0

0-0

Louisville

110.3

110.9

109.1

110.1

0-0

0-0

Virginia Tech

109.2

109.2

111.3

109.9

0-0

0-0

Florida St.

107.4

105.8

107.7

107.0

0-0

0-0

Virginia

106.6

106.1

106.3

106.4

0-0

0-0

Pittsburgh

102.9

104.7

103.1

103.6

0-0

0-0

Miami (Fla.)

100.3

103.0

100.3

101.2

0-0

0-0

Duke

100.3

101.0

99.5

100.2

0-0

0-0

Boston Coll.

99.6

99.3

99.6

99.5

0-0

0-0

Wake Forest

98.4

99.6

98.1

98.7

0-0

0-0

Georgia Tech

98.7

98.0

97.3

98.0

0-0

0-0

Syracuse

94.3

96.6

95.1

95.4

0-0

0-0

NC State

93.5

93.7

93.6

93.6

0-0

0-0

ACC Averages

104.9

105.4

105.3

105.2

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

116.9

116.9

117.1

117.0

0-0

0-0

Texas

115.2

113.6

115.3

114.7

0-0

0-0

Oklahoma St.

113.4

112.8

113.6

113.3

0-0

0-0

Iowa St.

110.9

110.2

110.7

110.6

0-0

0-0

Baylor

108.0

108.1

108.2

108.1

0-0

0-0

Kansas St.

107.4

106.0

107.5

107.0

0-0

0-0

T C U

105.0

102.8

105.1

104.3

0-0

0-0

W. Virginia

100.6

100.7

100.7

100.7

0-0

0-0

Texas Tech

99.7

98.5

99.9

99.4

0-0

0-0

Kansas

89.8

90.0

88.5

89.5

0-0

0-0

Big 12 Averages

106.7

106.0

106.7

106.5

 

 

Conference USA

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

CUSA

Overall

W. Kentucky

96.0

97.1

97.0

96.7

0-0

0-0

Florida Int’l.

95.4

95.2

95.8

95.5

0-0

0-0

Marshall

95.9

95.5

94.6

95.3

0-0

0-0

U A B

93.3

94.0

93.0

93.4

0-0

0-0

Southern Miss.

91.1

91.6

91.2

91.3

0-0

0-0

Middle Tenn.

87.5

88.1

87.8

87.8

0-0

0-0

La. Tech

86.5

88.0

87.7

87.4

0-0

0-0

Charlotte

86.2

86.5

86.3

86.4

0-0

0-0

Rice

86.2

84.2

85.6

85.3

0-0

0-0

Fla. Atlantic

81.3

83.0

81.4

81.9

0-0

0-0

North Texas

78.1

79.3

78.5

78.7

0-0

0-0

U T S A

76.6

76.3

75.9

76.3

0-0

0-0

U T E P

64.0

67.0

63.6

64.9

0-0

0-0

CUSA Averages

86.0

86.6

86.0

86.2

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Conf.

Overall

BYU

101.9

100.4

101.5

101.3

x

0-0

Army

90.1

92.5

89.8

90.8

x

0-0

Liberty

86.2

89.1

86.8

87.4

x

0-0

Ind. Averages

92.7

94.0

92.7

93.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

SEC

Overall

Georgia

121.1

119.4

121.9

120.8

0-0

0-0

Florida

119.7

119.3

120.8

119.9

0-0

0-0

Kentucky

110.3

110.5

111.5

110.8

0-0

0-0

Tennessee

109.1

109.0

109.6

109.2

0-0

0-0

S. Carolina

109.3

107.0

108.7

108.3

0-0

0-0

Missouri

99.1

99.2

100.3

99.5

0-0

0-0

Vanderbilt

93.3

92.7

91.8

92.6

0-0

0-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

SEC

Overall

L S U

123.2

122.5

125.8

123.8

0-0

0-0

Alabama

121.4

122.3

123.3

122.3

0-0

0-0

Auburn

118.0

116.6

117.9

117.5

0-0

0-0

Texas A&M

115.7

115.8

115.9

115.8

0-0

0-0

Miss. St.

106.7

106.1

108.4

107.1

0-0

0-0

Ole Miss

104.1

102.5

103.8

103.4

0-0

0-0

Arkansas

94.7

95.8

92.4

94.3

0-0

0-0

SEC Averages

110.4

109.9

110.9

110.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

SBC

Overall

Appal. St.

103.0

102.1

104.4

103.2

0-0

0-0

Georgia Sou.

95.2

96.2

96.5

96.0

0-0

0-0

Coastal Car.

88.3

88.9

88.7

88.6

0-0

0-0

Troy

87.0

89.0

87.3

87.8

0-0

0-0

Georgia St.

87.8

87.5

87.7

87.7

0-0

0-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

102.5

101.9

102.3

102.2

0-0

0-0

Arkansas St.

92.0

94.1

91.6

92.6

0-0

0-0

UL-Monroe

84.7

84.9

83.2

84.3

0-0

0-0

S. Alabama

82.8

84.1

80.9

82.6

0-0

0-0

Texas St.

78.0

78.9

76.0

77.6

0-0

0-0

SBC Averages

90.1

90.7

89.9

90.2

This Week’s Free College Pick–And You Get What You Pay For!

We are toning down the selections against the spread this year due to the lack of games each week and the uncertainty of available personnel.  We will issue a minimum of selections and highly urge you to not use this non-advice.  All wagers will be done at the pretend amount of $100 units.

 

1. Money Line Parlay (+103)

        Southern Miss over South Alabama

        Navy over BYU

June 10, 2018

The PiRates Are Hard At Work For Football Season

Hello Mates.

This is the head PiRate telling you that we have set sail and are on our way out to the green sea, otherwise known as the Football Field.

We have already begun to update our college football ratings for the 2018 season.  We have a unique way of updating our ratings from the end of the previous season to the beginning of the new season.  We have point values assigned to every starting and backup position on offense and defense plus an overall rating for the components of special teams.

For instance, as it should be obvious, the Quarterback is the most important position in college football.  So, we take special care in determining how many points better or worse each of the 130 teams is in week one compared to their final game of the year before by adding or subtracting points based on the QB.  We look at certain analytics data, just like baseball teams look at advanced statistics.  We actually have our own version of WAR for college football.  Instead of Batting, Fielding, and Pitching WAR, we have offense, defense, and special teams WAR, only instead of putting the final numbers into wins above average, we use points per game above average.  In the PiRate Ratings, a rating of 100.0 is average.  If a quarterback is worth 6.3 points better than an average QB, then before we look at the reserves, a team that is totally average at every other position would begin the season at 106.3 for this particular piece of the ratings’ puzzle.  If a quarterback has been determined to be 3.8 points below average, it would reduce the average team from 100.0 to 96.2.

On offense, the receiving corps is the next most important part of the equation, while the offensive line and running back corps are equal in importance as the last two parts.

Defensively, we look at all three units as they play against the run and the pass.  Stopping the pass is more important these days than stopping the run.  Interceptions, Passes Broken Up, Sacks, and Hurries are all parts of the Pass defense stats we look at.  We also have special ratings for nose guards that have the responsibility of taking up space and keeping blockers away from the linebackers, as these heroes of the trenches rarely show up in box scores, until one of the behemoths gets injured, and his replacement prevents the star will linebacker from making his usual 14 tackles with 2 for loss.

We have an intangible part of this equation as well.  Say a team has a change in coaches.  The old coach was a spread option or flexbone disciple, while the new coach is an air raid disciple.  It’s going to take 2-4 years to fully implement the changes, as that five foot nine inch triple option QB is not going to work as a dropback passer.

Another example in an intangible is the team that had 9 key injuries the year before, and 8 of the 9 return at 100% after missing parts or all of the year before.

In 2018, there will be a case where a potential all-star junior quarterback will transfer from one Power 5 school to another and be immediately eligible.  This will have major effects on his new team, much more than if he were the top incoming freshman in the nation.  This QB has already proven himself in a power conference, while the top incoming freshman only proved himself in Georgia high school action.  There is a difference as deep as the Grand Canyon in comparing the two, even though the incoming freshman might eventually become the next John Elway.  The seasoned starter showed what he could do when he passed for close to 350 yards against Auburn, while the freshman threw for 220 yards against Troup County High School.

This is just one piece of a 5-prong process.  We rate each team against every other team using 5 different processes.  Once we are done, we use three different algorithms to come up with a PiRate, Mean, and Bias rating for each of the 130 teams.  The PiRate and Bias differ by very little, so they will frequently be highly correlated, while the Mean rating is somewhat different than the other two, because it takes the equally-weighted average of the five ratings, while the other two apply heavier weights to some of the five components.  Because they share the exact same weighting of the prong we showed you above, these two tend to stay correlated.

We know we have a lot of advanced mathematicians reading our blog, and we are grateful for your patronage.  We try to make this more analytically dominated than you might get from other sports rating sites and even break down the fourth wall from time to time to show you what we do.

If you are not a math fan and just love football, then fear not.  We still hope to have computer ratings that are as accurate as possible, and we still will make fools of ourselves weekly to issue free picks that you can then take and gift to Las Vegas if you are foolish enough to not realize that these picks are worth exactly what you pay for them.

We have 10 weeks to go.  With a lot of late night work, we hope to have the ratings ready for you in 9 weeks max.

Thanks,

The Captain

September 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: September 28-October 2, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:20 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Green Bay Chicago 10.8 11.4 10.6 46
Miami (London) New Orleans -3.0 -1.8 -3.6 52
New England Carolina 9.5 10.8 9.1 49
Dallas LA Rams 15.7 14.6 15.8 44
Minnesota Detroit 1.1 0.4 1.4 43
Houston Tennessee -0.1 0.1 -0.1 41
N. Y. Jets Jacksonville -2.5 -3.2 -2.5 43
Cleveland Cincinnati -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 37
Baltimore Pittsburgh -1.5 -1.7 -0.8 41
Atlanta Buffalo 10.3 9.5 10.4 53
Tampa Bay N. Y. Giants 3.7 2.8 4.5 38
LA Chargers Philadelphia 1.8 2.5 0.9 48
Arizona San Francisco 10.1 10.6 10.0 49
Denver Oakland 2.2 1.1 2.7 46
Seattle Indianapolis 9.1 8.9 8.7 44
Kansas City Washington 8.1 8.5 8.2 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 105.7 106.4 105.5 105.8 24
Buffalo 98.6 99.0 99.0 98.9 22
Miami 97.6 97.7 97.1 97.5 21
N. Y. Jets 92.9 92.5 92.9 92.8 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 104.6 105.0 104.3 104.7 22
Baltimore 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.3 19
Cincinnati 97.6 98.0 97.6 97.8 16
Cleveland 94.4 94.8 94.7 94.6 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 101.2 101.3 100.7 101.1 25
Houston 98.1 98.4 97.7 98.1 16
Jacksonville 98.0 98.2 97.9 98.0 24
Indianapolis 95.4 95.7 95.1 95.4 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.5 105.6 106.0 105.7 21
Oakland 104.3 104.8 104.0 104.4 26
Denver 103.5 102.8 103.8 103.4 20
LA Chargers 99.5 99.1 99.4 99.3 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 104.2 103.3 104.3 104.0 24
Philadelphia 101.2 100.1 102.0 101.1 23
Washington 100.4 100.1 100.8 100.4 26
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Detroit 102.4 103.2 102.4 102.7 24
Green Bay 102.6 103.3 102.1 102.7 26
Minnesota 100.5 100.6 100.8 100.6 19
Chicago 94.2 94.5 94.0 94.2 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.9 105.5 106.4 105.9 31
New Orleans 100.6 99.5 100.8 100.3 31
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.4 100.6 100.1 23
Carolina 99.2 98.5 99.3 99.0 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 101.0 101.1 100.3 100.8 19
Arizona 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 24
San Francisco 92.2 92.1 92.1 92.1 25
LA Rams 91.5 91.7 91.5 91.6 20

Our Official Statement on the Current Situation in the NFL

Neither side is right and neither side is wrong.  There is too much black and white in this world, and this is no different.  Life should not be an either or situation on everything that exists, but the human race has not evolved enough to get past this fact.

The problem is that neither side understands tactfulness, maturity, diplomacy, and statesmanship.  Maybe, consultants have advised the two factions to reduce the problem to childlike fighting, and that is sad if the populace can only understand issues when reduced to a childlike mentality.

Nevertheless, the problem is that an entertaining three-hour escape from the stress of the real world has now been altered into just another stressful afternoon.  The 6 members of the PiRate Ratings have decided that the situation has eliminated the needed escape that  NFL Football provided us–up to 56 years for our oldest contributor.  Thus, on Sunday, none of us attended or viewed a game.  Tickets went unused at Lambeau Field, LP Field, and U.S. Bank Stadium.  A fouth stadium, Firstenergy in Cleveland, will join this list this week.  As best as we can estimate, this is the first time since sometime in 1963 that at least once of us has failed to watch an NFL game.

We have received more emails than we can respond to this week, and we will refrain from giving out the email address for now, because it will take a couple weeks to reply to all of them.  But, it is obvious that you our reader are more than likely to stop watching and attending than to watch or attend.  Actually, we have yet to receive an email in support of the players, and we can only surmise that some of you that did not send us a message are still watching.

Feel free to comment in the comment section of this entry.  If you refrain from profanity and comment in a civil and intelligent manner, your comment will be accepted.  We will censor any profanity or below-the-belt comments.  We are a scientific/mathematic website more interested in the numbers than the individuals on either side of this issue.

For those that have not seen this unaltered, here are the exact words of the 1st Amendment of the Bill of Rights.

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Why The Ratings Drop Does Matter

We have heard  many apologists proclaim that the drastic TV ratings drop had little or nothing to do with the current situation between the two opposing sides.  We have seen excuses such as “The Emmy Awards aired opposite SNF,” and “It was Oprah’s Debut on 60 Minutes.”

There is one telltale sign that tends to make us believe these apologies are off the mark.  While the ratings for the football games have dropped off the table, the ratings for the pre-game shows are actually up.  People are tuning in to the pre-game in greater numbers and then switching channels or turning the TV off before the kickoff.  This is a definite sign that the league has alienated a large number of fans, or maybe we should say former fans.  Turning the channel or turning off the TV in the middle of a time slot is considered a bigger deal than doing so at the top or bottom of the hour when programs change.  As a former journalist in radio and television, our founder understands the implications in local news when the ratings change during the weather segment or sports segment.

 

August 17, 2017

2017 Mountain West Conference Preview

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:37 am

In past years, the Mountain West Conference preview has come several days later.  We preview the conferences in reverse order of their overall power rating, and the MWC starts the 2017 season at its lowest rank in many years.  Part of that reason is that the one power program, Boise State, is not so powerful these days.  The Broncos are still very much a contender to win the Mountain Division and play in the league championship game, but they are not a prohibitive favorite, nor are they the regular favorite.

Last year, five teams competed for the Mountain Division title, while San Diego State cruised to the West Division title with no competition.  It should be more of the same formula this year, as the MWC Championship Game is starting to look like the Aztec Invitational Tournament.

Here is how the MWC Media picked the races in the preseason.

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total
1 Boise St. 21 161
2 Colorado St. 6 135
3 Wyoming 1 114
4 Air Force 0 82
5 New Mexico 0 68
6 Utah St. 0 28
       
West Divsion
# Team 1st Pl. Total
1 San Diego St. 28 168
2 Hawaii 0 135
3 UNLV 0 105
4 Nevada 0 79
5 San Jose St. 0 54
6 Fresno St. 0 47

The Preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings agree with SDSU being the clear cut favorite in the West, but they do not agree with the Mountain Division pick.  It looks like a three-team race in this division.

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
         
MWC Averages 91.6 91.9 91.8 91.7

This is our not-so-scientific look at the projected standings and bowl projections.

Mountain West Conference Projected Standings
       
Mountain Division Conference Overall Bowl
Wyoming 7-1 9-4 Idaho Potato
Colorado St. 7-1 9-3 Hawaii
Boise St. 6-2 8-4 Arizona
New Mexico 4-4 6-6 New Mexico
Air Force 3-5 5-7  
Utah St. 1-7 2-10  
       
West Division Conference Overall Bowl
San Diego St. 6-2 9-4 Las Vegas
Hawaii 3-5 5-7  
UNLV 3-5 4-8  
Nevada 2-6 3-9  
Fresno St. 2-6 3-9  
San Jose St. 2-6 3-10  
       
San Diego St. to Win MWC Championship Game

Coming tomorrow: The Sun Belt Conference had always been the lowest rated league each preseason since its inception, but we thought that had changed this year.  Not only did we believe that the SBC moved out of the basement, they climbed up to second best Group of 5 conference.  At first, we believed it was due to a trio of exceptionally strong teams, but then we realized what happened.  It was our mistake.  We forgot to divide the total rating by 12 and divided by 11.  Coastal Carolina joined the league as a full member, and our people did not change the formula until it was too late to change the order of the previews.  We apologize for the error.

 

To make up for this, here is a fun, two-part trivia question for you.  The answers will come in the following previews.

A. Name the four pairs of FBS football schools that play their home games in stadiums less than 10 miles apart.

B. Name the three pairs of FBS football schools  that play their home games in stadiums less than 15 miles apart and are also conference rivals.

Remember, these are FBS schools only.  One hint–there will be one fewer pair that qualify after this season.

August 15, 2017

2017 Mid-American Conference Preview

Today, the PiRate Ratings kicks off its annual college football conference previews with the Mid-American Conference.  Last year, the MAC was a sneaky little league.  Very few so-called experts picked this league to produce the automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl participant, but when Western Michigan ran the table in the regular season, and then the Broncos beat Ohio in the MAC title game, it was WMU that ventured down to Jerry World to play in the Cotton Bowl.

There is a slight chance that this league could produce the special Group of 5 team again this season, but we won’t expect it this time around.  Not only is there no overpowering team in this league. the schedule for the best team just won’t allow for an undefeated season and most likely not a one-loss season.

2017 looks to be the year where college football begins to look more and more like the NFL, and the teams with experienced and talented quarterbacks, quick receivers, quick defensive backs, and above-average linemen in that order will dominate the land.  It is certainly true in this league, where the top two QBs belong to the two teams we are picking to win the divisional races–Logan Woodside at Toledo and Gus Ragland at Miami of Ohio.

Because the Poinsettia Bowl went bust, there is one less bowl game this season.  The MAC figures to be the league that suffers the most from this cancellation.  We believe there will be two bowl eligible teams in the league that do not receive bowl bids.  At least, we do not foresee a 5-7 team having to fill in as an at-large, at least until another bowl replaces the defunct Poinsettia.  There could be one set for Wrigley Field in Chicago in the future, and that most assuredly would be good news for this league.

Here is how the MAC Media picked the teams to finish the season.

MAC East Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Ohio U 11 131 0
2 Miami (O) 12 129 1
3 Bowling Green 1 88 1
4 Akron 0 79 0
5 Buffalo 0 41 0
6 Kent St. 0 36 0
         
MAC West Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Toledo 22 142 21
2 Western Michigan 1 107 1
3 Northern Illinois 1 89 0
4 Eastern Michigan 0 74 0
5 Central Michigan 0 62 0
6 Ball St. 0 30 0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings differ slightly, but not all that much.  Remember that the PiRate Ratings are really only predictive for the next week’s schedule, and they cannot be used to look forward past that week.  Because, we set certain factors into each teams’ future to account for depth or lack thereof, these ratings can change even if a team wins by the exact amount predicted.

Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings for the pre-season

Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
         
MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4

This is our not so scientific attempt to predict the won-loss records and bowl projections.  As we stated above, our ratings do not look past the next week’s schedule.

Mid-American Conference Projected Standings
Team Conference Overall Bowl
East Division      
Miami (O) 6-2 9-4 Camellia
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 Idaho Potato
Akron 4-4 5-7  
Kent St. 2-6 3-9  
Bowling Green 2-6 3-9  
Buffalo 2-6 3-9  
       
West Division      
Toledo 8-0 11-2 Bahamas
Western Michigan 6-2 8-4 Dollar General
Eastern Michigan 5-3 6-6 eligible
Central Michigan 5-3 6-6 eligible
Northern Illinois 2-6 4-8  
Ball St. 1-7 3-9  
       
Toledo to win MAC Title Game

Coming tomorrow–Conference USA

 

 

 

 

 

August 14, 2017

2017 College Football Season Previews Premiere Tuesday, August 15

Ahoy, Mateys!  Come aboard the PiRate Ship for the 2017-18 College Football Season.  The PiRates have set sail for the season, and we hope we sail on smooth waters all year.

Beginning, Tuesday, August 15, 2017, in the afternoon in the Eastern Daylight Time Zone (after 18 Hours GMT), we will commence with the first of our conference previews for the season, previewing one new conference per day.  As usual, we will begin with the lowest rated conference and continue until we conclude the previews with the top-rated conference.  You may or may not be surprised this year, but there are some changes in the lower end and the upper end of the conference ratings.  For the first time since its inception, the Sun Belt Conference does not tally the lowest overall score.  This year, that dubious distinction befalls Conference USA, and it is CUSA that will be our first preview. EDIT: Our Apologies to CUSA.  It is the Mid-American Conference that came up with the lowest league average, so look for the MAC Preview on Tuesday.

Here is a proposed schedule for our website for the 2017-18 sports season 

Tuesdays: Updated Retrodictive and Predictive Ratings & Spreads for the upcoming College Week

Wednesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the upcoming NFL Week.

Thursdays: Our infamous Money Line Parlay Selections (JUST FOR FUN).

Fridays: Tentatively, we are hoping to bring back our historic Pro Football Simulations this season.  We are looking at simulating an NFL Season using the best teams for 14 franchises between 1950 and 1975.  The 14 NFL teams in existence in 1965 will be used, and we will use the rules from that season, culminating with the NFL Championship Game (and maybe the Playoff Bowl).

Check back Tuesday afternoon (EDT) for the first preview of the PiRate Season.

As usual, our ratings will be part of the Prediction Tracker and the Massey Football Ranking Composite

http://thepredictiontracker.com/

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

June 20, 2017

The PiRate Ratings Are Hard At Work

Welcome back gridiron fans.  The PiRates are back at sea working hard on getting their treasure for the 2017-18 season.

There will be a few tweaks to the formulas this season as we refine our ratings to make them as accurate as possible, and we are excited about it.

Tweak #1: Our first tweak involves increasing the alteration of each college football teams’ rate of adjustment as it applies to depth concerns.  If a team is stacked two-deep with talent, they should be able to endure a long, hard season.  But, if the team is only good in their starting lineup, and they lack the depth, they will weaken as the season goes on.  Consider two teams, State and Tech.  State and Tech are about equal in talent in their starting lineups, and on August 25, they are exactly the same in power rating.  For the sake of argument, let’s say they both look like 9-3 teams in a power 5 conference and have identical ratings of 118.0.

In the month of September, State and Tech both go 4-0 over similar competition, and their statistics show that they are still basically the same in talent and results.  Both teams ratings go up, but State’s go up a tad more than Tech’s, due to the depth issue.  Through four games, it won’t be all that much, and now on the First Monday in October, State is now 122.5, and Tech is 121.8.

In October, State and Tech both go 3-1 to sit at 7-1 with four games to go.  Both teams have lost some key players by now, but State has plugged in able second-teamers to fill the spots, while Tech has been forced to go with talent not up to Power 5 conference standards.  State’s wins have been a little easier, and their loss was much closer than Tech’s wins and loss.  Now, State has a rating of 123.1, while Tech has fallen a bit to 119.5.

In November, State finishes strong, going 3-1 to finish the regular season at 10-2.  Tech falters going 1-3 to finish 8-4.

We see this every year.  We believe we can factor in this depth issue into our ratings before the season begins, and we can adjust the rate of adjustment during the season as a team sees key players leave the lineup.  It also works in reverse; a team may have a blessing of several new underclassmen beginning to contribute.

Look at Georgia in 1980.  Hershel Walker was a true freshman.  In the second half of the season opener against Tennessee, Coach Vince Dooley inserted Walker into the game with the Bulldogs trailing by double-digits, and Walker turned the game around in his first 10 carries.  Georgia won the game, and Walker led the Bulldogs to an undefeated National Championship.  Had this new twist of our ratings been in effect then, The Bulldogs might have improved by an unprecedented 10 points between game one and game two.  As it was then, it took several weeks until Georgia’s rating really reflected their power, all because of one freshman.

This can just as easily happen to an average team that loses a couple of key players.  There have been instances when a team has lost a dozen key players by the end of October.  If it is Alabama, the Crimson Tide might be five points weaker than they would have been with the dozen players still healthy.  But, if it is Iowa State, the Cyclones might be 15 points weaker with the loss of these dozen players.

Going back to the unexpected bonanza, what if a team has five or six redshirt freshmen that have displaced upperclassmen in the starting lineup?  Obviously, this team must now be better talent-wise if starters have been replaced  (unless the coach has thrown in the towel on the season and is looking to the future).  What started as a so-so season may continue as a better season because the surprising advancement of the freshmen has made this team a touchdown better than it was earlier in the season.

The PiRate Ratings will adjust for this during the season by increasing or decreasing the adjustment rate of the teams after each Saturday.  Because the PiRate Ratings always show a total average of 100.0, that means teams might lose ground in the ratings after a good game, because other teams now earn more bonus for their play on the field.  It will be a work in progress, but in the end, we believe it will lead to more accurate ratings.

 

Tweak #2: Our basketball ratings have always been Four Factors-based.  We have three different algorithms using the Four Factors Data.  Football also has its factors.  In fact, in football, there are five factors.  They are, in order of importance: Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers.   You can find excellent content online about these factors–some explain in detail like a thesis, while others give you a quick outline.

For our purposes, we have changed how we use the box scores of the games in our updating formula.  We will look more at Explosiveness and Efficiency when we update the teams’ ratings every week.  Additionally, we will keep an unpublished running score on how consistent teams are in being able to move the ball and stop the movement of the other team.  Which leads us to our big breakthrough for 2017-18.

Big Breakthrough

Have you ever noticed that over the course of an era, a team may celebrate a national championship or conference championship when they appear to not be as good as prior teams or soon see future teams that look better but do not win the championship?  You have probably seen that a really good team goes 10-2 or 11-1 and demolishes most of their opponents but suffered a terrible upset.  Then, that team runs the table but wins most of their games by nice amounts but by no means blowouts.

Think of a team that wins 55-17 and 38-10 or something similar for most of the season and then falls 31-27 to a mediocre team.  This team leads the nation in total offense or scoring defense, but they always fall a game short of the accomplishment.  But, then along comes a season where this school wins 31-20, 27-14 or something similar and runs the table.  They finish well down in total offense and near the top in scoring defense, but they go undefeated.

We have seen this happen multiple times in the last 30 years.  The dominating team is not as consistent as the team that went undefeated, and in three out of 10 games, the less consistent power may be two touchdowns better than the undefeated champion.  However, 70% of the time, the undefeated champion will be better than the dominating team.

The PiRates have tried to assign value or lack of value to the consistency of a team, but this is something that takes a good sampling of games.  This adjustment will be used in November after all teams have played 2/3 of their regular season schedule.  By then, we should have a grasp of what teams are staying consistent, and what teams are all over the map.  We will not adjust their ratings, because you never know if your inconsistent team will deviate 14 points above their rating or 14 points below.  What we will do is search for consistency when we select our Money Line plays.  We might be crazy, because we are coming off two consecutive profitable Money Line seasons (just for fun and not real wagering), so we might be cutting off our noses to spite our faces.

Enjoy your summer.  Football season will be here before you know it.  The PiRates are actually ahead of schedule this year with their college football updates, and we should have enough time to expand our preseason coverage this year.

Older Posts »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.