PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Monday, February 15, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Florida St.	Virginia	0.7
Longwood	Hampton	7.0
Presbyterian	USC Upstate	1.5
SIU Edwardsville	Murray St.	-8.1
Tennessee Tech	Eastern Kentucky	-9.4
Washington St.	Washington	6.3
Chattanooga	East Tennessee	-1.4
New Orleans	Stephen F. Austin	-8.1
Jackson St.	Texas Southern	-0.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk	Team	Rating
1	Gonzaga	128.1
2	Baylor	124.0
3	Iowa	120.1
4	Michigan	119.9
5	Alabama	119.5
6	Illinois	119.0
7	Ohio St.	118.1
8	Houston	117.8
9	Loyola Chicago	116.5
10	USC	115.9
11	Virginia	115.6
12	Villanova	115.6
13	Creighton	115.5
14	Wisconsin	115.1
15	Colorado	114.9
16	West Virginia	114.9
17	Florida St.	114.8
18	Texas	114.7
19	Arkansas	114.6
20	Tennessee	114.6
21	Texas Tech	114.2
22	Kansas	114.0
23	Oklahoma	113.9
24	LSU	113.6
25	Purdue	113.5
26	Rutgers	113.5
27	San Diego St.	113.5
28	Florida	113.3
29	Indiana	112.3
30	BYU	112.3
31	Duke	112.3
32	Oregon	112.1
33	Seton Hall	112.1
34	Penn St.	112.1
35	Minnesota	111.9
36	Saint Louis	111.9
37	Virginia Tech	111.9
38	Louisville	111.8
39	Maryland	111.7
40	North Carolina	111.7
41	Arizona	111.6
42	Oklahoma St.	111.6
43	Missouri	111.4
44	Memphis	111.3
45	Connecticut	111.3
46	VCU	111.2
47	Utah St.	111.1
48	Wright St.	110.8
49	Auburn	110.7
50	Xavier	110.6
51	Syracuse	110.6
52	Richmond	110.6
53	SMU	110.6
54	Clemson	110.5
55	St. Bonaventure	110.4
56	Stanford	110.4
57	Mississippi	110.4
58	UCLA	110.4
59	Notre Dame	110.3
60	Georgia Tech	110.3
61	Drake	110.1
62	Kentucky	109.7
63	Boise St.	109.6
64	St. John’s	109.4
65	Toledo	109.1
66	Marshall	109.0
67	Colorado St.	108.9
68	Michigan St.	108.7
69	Utah	108.6
70	Davidson	108.3
71	Belmont	108.3
72	Northwestern	108.2
73	Providence	107.9
74	Rhode Island	107.9
75	Pittsburgh	107.9
76	South Carolina	107.5
77	North Texas	107.3
78	Western Kentucky	107.2
79	Buffalo	107.1
80	N.C. State	107.1
81	Wichita St.	107.1
82	Mississippi St.	107.0
83	Saint Mary’s	107.0
84	UC Santa Barbara	107.0
85	Arizona St.	106.7
86	Louisiana Tech	106.5
87	Georgia	106.3
88	Dayton	106.3
89	Marquette	106.2
90	Kent St.	106.2
91	San Francisco	106.2
92	Akron	106.1
93	Abilene Christian	106.1
94	Colgate	106.1
95	Cincinnati	105.9
96	Furman	105.9
97	Nevada	105.9
98	Georgetown	105.9
99	UAB	105.8
100	Missouri St.	105.8
101	Winthrop	105.3
102	Massachusetts	105.1
103	Washington St.	104.9
104	UCF	104.8
105	Ohio	104.7
106	Pepperdine	104.6
107	Duquesne	104.6
108	Liberty	104.6
109	Wake Forest	104.5
110	TCU	104.5
111	Tulsa	104.4
112	Vanderbilt	104.4
113	UNC Greensboro	104.3
114	Nebraska	104.3
115	Butler	104.1
116	UC Irvine	104.1
117	South Dakota St.	104.0
118	Vermont	104.0
119	Boston College	103.9
120	Eastern Washington	103.9
121	UC Riverside	103.8
122	Loyola Marymount	103.7
123	Oregon St.	103.6
124	Pacific	103.6
125	South Florida	103.6
126	DePaul	103.4
127	Indiana St.	103.4
128	East Tennessee St.	103.2
129	Grand Canyon	103.2
130	Miami FL	103.1
131	Texas A&M	103.0
132	Bowling Green	102.5
133	Bradley	102.4
134	California	102.3
135	East Carolina	102.3
136	Temple	102.0
137	Cal St. Bakersfield	102.0
138	Murray St.	102.0
139	Morehead St.	101.8
140	George Mason	101.8
141	Wofford	101.6
142	Tulane	101.5
143	Santa Clara	101.5
144	Siena	101.4
145	UNLV	101.1
146	Iowa St.	101.1
147	Georgia St.	101.1
148	Ball St.	100.9
149	Old Dominion	100.9
150	Cleveland St.	100.7
151	New Mexico St.	100.7
152	North Dakota St.	100.6
153	Mercer	100.6
154	Weber St.	100.5
155	UTEP	100.5
156	Texas St.	100.5
157	Detroit	100.4
158	Drexel	100.4
159	Chattanooga	100.3
160	Northeastern	100.2
161	Navy	100.2
162	Stephen F. Austin	100.2
163	Bellarmine	100.2
164	James Madison	100.1
165	Washington	100.1
166	Hofstra	100.0
167	UMBC	100.0
168	Sam Houston St.	99.9
169	Eastern Kentucky	99.8
170	VMI	99.7
171	Miami OH	99.7
172	Coastal Carolina	99.6
173	South Dakota	99.6
174	Northern Iowa	99.6
175	Monmouth	99.6
176	Oral Roberts	99.5
177	UTSA	99.5
178	Jacksonville St.	99.4
179	Rice	99.4
180	Saint Peter’s	99.4
181	La Salle	99.3
182	Army	99.2
183	Montana	99.0
184	Radford	98.6
185	Austin Peay	98.4
186	Hawaii	98.3
187	Kansas St.	98.1
188	Louisiana	98.1
189	San Diego	97.9
190	Wyoming	97.9
191	Fresno St.	97.8
192	Southern Utah	97.8
193	Appalachian St.	97.7
194	Nicholls St.	97.6
195	Florida Atlantic	97.6
196	South Alabama	97.5
197	Northern Kentucky	97.5
198	Charlotte	97.5
199	Bryant	97.4
200	Gardner Webb	97.4
201	Valparaiso	97.3
202	Illinois St.	97.2
203	Little Rock	97.2
204	George Washington	97.1
205	Evansville	97.0
206	Montana St.	96.9
207	UMKC	96.9
208	UNC Wilmington	96.9
209	Southern Illinois	96.8
210	UNC Asheville	96.8
211	Delaware	96.8
212	Mount St. Mary’s	96.7
213	Iona	96.7
214	Lipscomb	96.6
215	Canisius	96.5
216	Saint Joseph’s	96.5
217	Oakland	96.5
218	UC Davis	96.4
219	UT Rio Grande Valley	96.4
220	Charleston	96.2
221	Albany	96.1
222	Hartford	96.0
223	Northern Colorado	95.8
224	UC San Diego	95.8
225	Milwaukee	95.8
226	Niagara	95.7
227	Prairie View A&M	95.7
228	UMass Lowell	95.7
229	Loyola MD	95.6
230	Longwood	95.5
231	Sacramento St.	95.5
232	Norfolk St.	95.5
233	Youngstown St.	95.5
234	Texas Southern	95.4
235	Arkansas St.	95.3
236	UT Arlington	95.3
237	Stetson	95.2
238	Lafayette	95.2
239	Stony Brook	95.2
240	NJIT	95.1
241	American	95.1
242	Western Carolina	94.9
243	The Citadel	94.8
244	Green Bay	94.8
245	Bucknell	94.8
246	Wagner	94.7
247	Southern Miss	94.7
248	Morgan St.	94.7
249	Utah Valley	94.5
250	Cal Baptist	94.5
251	Seattle	94.4
252	Eastern Michigan	94.4
253	Campbell	94.3
254	Merrimack	94.2
255	Central Michigan	94.2
256	Western Michigan	94.2
257	Florida Gulf Coast	94.2
258	IUPUI	94.2
259	Georgia Southern	94.1
260	Illinois Chicago	94.0
261	William & Mary	93.9
262	Marist	93.9
263	Towson	93.8
264	Florida A&M	93.8
265	Middle Tennessee	93.8
266	Boston University	93.7
267	New Hampshire	93.7
268	New Mexico	93.7
269	Samford	93.7
270	Elon	93.6
271	Idaho St.	93.6
272	Portland St.	93.6
273	High Point	93.5
274	Long Beach St.	93.3
275	Cal St. Fullerton	93.3
276	FIU	93.2
277	Robert Morris	93.1
278	Jackson St.	93.1
279	Fordham	93.0
280	LIU	92.9
281	Troy	92.8
282	Fairleigh Dickinson	92.6
283	North Carolina Central	92.5
284	SIU Edwardsville	92.4
285	Quinnipiac	92.4
286	North Florida	92.3
287	St. Francis PA	92.2
288	Southern	92.2
289	Purdue Fort Wayne	92.1
290	Manhattan	92.1
291	Southeast Missouri St.	92.0
292	Cal St. Northridge	91.9
293	North Dakota	91.9
294	North Carolina A&T	91.8
295	Rider	91.7
296	North Alabama	91.6
297	Jacksonville	91.5
298	Howard (opted out)	91.5
299	Louisiana Monroe	91.3
300	Northern Illinois	91.3
301	Western Illinois	91.3
302	Sacred Heart	91.1
303	Tarleton St.	91.0
304	Northern Arizona	90.9
305	Air Force	90.8
306	Northwestern St.	90.8
307	Nebraska Omaha	90.7
308	New Orleans	90.6
309	Grambling St.	90.6
310	Incarnate Word	90.5
311	Eastern Illinois	90.5
312	USC Upstate	90.4
313	Presbyterian	90.4
314	St. Francis NY	90.3
315	Coppin St.	90.2
316	Hampton	90.0
317	Tennessee Tech	89.9
318	San Jose St.	89.9
319	Lehigh	89.8
320	Southeastern Louisiana	89.7
321	Fairfield	89.6
322	Tennessee St.	89.4
323	Houston Baptist	89.1
324	Holy Cross	89.0
325	Portland	89.0
326	Central Arkansas	88.9
327	Lamar	88.6
328	Binghamton	88.2
329	Charleston Southern	88.2
330	Maine (opted out)	88.2
331	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	88.0
332	Dixie St.	87.9
333	Central Connecticut	87.7
334	McNeese St.	87.7
335	Alabama A&M	87.4
336	Denver	87.0
337	Alcorn St.	86.9
338	Cal Poly	86.9
339	Kennesaw St.	86.2
340	Tennessee Martin	86.1
341	Idaho	84.0
342	Delaware St.	83.3
343	Arkansas Pine Bluff	83.3
344	Alabama St.	83.1
345	South Carolina St.	81.3
346	Chicago St.	80.6
347	Mississippi Valley St.	70.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic 10
Team	Rating
Saint Louis	111.9
VCU	111.2
Richmond	110.6
St. Bonaventure	110.4
Davidson	108.3
Rhode Island	107.9
Dayton	106.3
Massachusetts	105.1
Duquesne	104.6
George Mason	101.8
La Salle	99.3
George Washington	97.1
Saint Joseph’s	96.5
Fordham	93.0
American
Team	Rating
Houston	117.8
Memphis	111.3
SMU	110.6
Wichita St.	107.1
Cincinnati	105.9
UCF	104.8
Tulsa	104.4
South Florida	103.6
East Carolina	102.3
Temple	102.0
Tulane	101.5
Atlantic Coast
Team	Rating
Virginia	115.6
Florida St.	114.8
Duke	112.3
Virginia Tech	111.9
Louisville	111.8
North Carolina	111.7
Syracuse	110.6
Clemson	110.5
Notre Dame	110.3
Georgia Tech	110.3
Pittsburgh	107.9
N.C. State	107.1
Wake Forest	104.5
Boston College	103.9
Miami FL	103.1
America East
Team	Rating
Vermont	104.0
UMBC	100.0
Albany	96.1
Hartford	96.0
UMass Lowell	95.7
Stony Brook	95.2
NJIT	95.1
New Hampshire	93.7
Binghamton	88.2
Maine (opted out)	88.2
Atlantic Sun
Team	Rating
Liberty	104.6
Bellarmine	100.2
Lipscomb	96.6
Stetson	95.2
Florida Gulf Coast	94.2
North Florida	92.3
North Alabama	91.6
Jacksonville	91.5
Kennesaw St.	86.2
Big 12
Team	Rating
Baylor	124.0
West Virginia	114.9
Texas	114.7
Texas Tech	114.2
Kansas	114.0
Oklahoma	113.9
Oklahoma St.	111.6
TCU	104.5
Iowa St.	101.1
Kansas St.	98.1
Big East
Team	Rating
Villanova	115.6
Creighton	115.5
Seton Hall	112.1
Connecticut	111.3
Xavier	110.6
St. John’s	109.4
Providence	107.9
Marquette	106.2
Georgetown	105.9
Butler	104.1
DePaul	103.4
Big Sky
Team	Rating
Eastern Washington	103.9
Weber St.	100.5
Montana	99.0
Southern Utah	97.8
Montana St.	96.9
Northern Colorado	95.8
Sacramento St.	95.5
Idaho St.	93.6
Portland St.	93.6
Northern Arizona	90.9
Idaho	84.0
Big South
Team	Rating
Winthrop	105.3
Radford	98.6
Gardner Webb	97.4
UNC Asheville	96.8
Longwood	95.5
Campbell	94.3
High Point	93.5
USC Upstate	90.4
Presbyterian	90.4
Hampton	90.0
Charleston Southern	88.2
Big Ten
Team	Rating
Iowa	120.1
Michigan	119.9
Illinois	119.0
Ohio St.	118.1
Wisconsin	115.1
Purdue	113.5
Rutgers	113.5
Indiana	112.3
Penn St.	112.1
Minnesota	111.9
Maryland	111.7
Michigan St.	108.7
Northwestern	108.2
Nebraska	104.3
Big West
Team	Rating
UC Santa Barbara	107.0
UC Irvine	104.1
UC Riverside	103.8
Cal St. Bakersfield	102.0
Hawaii	98.3
UC Davis	96.4
UC San Diego	95.8
Long Beach St.	93.3
Cal St. Fullerton	93.3
Cal St. Northridge	91.9
Cal Poly	86.9
Colonial
Team	Rating
Drexel	100.4
Northeastern	100.2
James Madison	100.1
Hofstra	100.0
UNC Wilmington	96.9
Delaware	96.8
Charleston	96.2
William & Mary	93.9
Towson	93.8
Elon	93.6
Conference USA
Team	Rating
Marshall	109.0
North Texas	107.3
Western Kentucky	107.2
Louisiana Tech	106.5
UAB	105.8
Old Dominion	100.9
UTEP	100.5
UTSA	99.5
Rice	99.4
Florida Atlantic	97.6
Charlotte	97.5
Southern Miss	94.7
Middle Tennessee	93.8
FIU	93.2
Horizon
Team	Rating
Wright St.	110.8
Cleveland St.	100.7
Detroit	100.4
Northern Kentucky	97.5
Oakland	96.5
Milwaukee	95.8
Youngstown St.	95.5
Green Bay	94.8
IUPUI	94.2
Illinois Chicago	94.0
Robert Morris	93.1
Purdue Fort Wayne	92.1
Metro Atlantic
Team	Rating
Siena	101.4
Monmouth	99.6
Saint Peter’s	99.4
Iona	96.7
Canisius	96.5
Niagara	95.7
Marist	93.9
Quinnipiac	92.4
Manhattan	92.1
Rider	91.7
Fairfield	89.6
Mid-American
Team	Rating
Toledo	109.1
Buffalo	107.1
Kent St.	106.2
Akron	106.1
Ohio	104.7
Bowling Green	102.5
Ball St.	100.9
Miami OH	99.7
Eastern Michigan	94.4
Central Michigan	94.2
Western Michigan	94.2
Northern Illinois	91.3
Mideastern Athletic
Team	Rating
Norfolk St.	95.5
Morgan St.	94.7
Florida A&M	93.8
North Carolina Central	92.5
North Carolina A&T	91.8
Howard (opted out)	91.5
Coppin St.	90.2
Delaware St.	83.3
South Carolina St.	81.3
Missouri Valley
Team	Rating
Loyola Chicago	116.5
Drake	110.1
Missouri St.	105.8
Indiana St.	103.4
Bradley	102.4
Northern Iowa	99.6
Valparaiso	97.3
Illinois St.	97.2
Evansville	97.0
Southern Illinois	96.8
Mountain West
Team	Rating
San Diego St.	113.5
Utah St.	111.1
Boise St.	109.6
Colorado St.	108.9
Nevada	105.9
UNLV	101.1
Wyoming	97.9
Fresno St.	97.8
New Mexico	93.7
Air Force	90.8
San Jose St.	89.9
Northeast
Team	Rating
Bryant	97.4
Mount St. Mary’s	96.7
Wagner	94.7
Merrimack	94.2
LIU	92.9
Fairleigh Dickinson	92.6
St. Francis PA	92.2
Sacred Heart	91.1
St. Francis NY	90.3
Central Connecticut	87.7
Ohio Valley
Team	Rating
Belmont	108.3
Murray St.	102.0
Morehead St.	101.8
Eastern Kentucky	99.8
Jacksonville St.	99.4
Austin Peay	98.4
SIU Edwardsville	92.4
Southeast Missouri St.	92.0
Eastern Illinois	90.5
Tennessee Tech	89.9
Tennessee St.	89.4
Tennessee Martin	86.1
Pac-12
Team	Rating
USC	115.9
Colorado	114.9
Oregon	112.1
Arizona	111.6
Stanford	110.4
UCLA	110.4
Utah	108.6
Arizona St.	106.7
Washington St.	104.9
Oregon St.	103.6
California	102.3
Washington	100.1
Patriot
Team	Rating
Colgate	106.1
Navy	100.2
Army	99.2
Loyola MD	95.6
Lafayette	95.2
American	95.1
Bucknell	94.8
Boston University	93.7
Lehigh	89.8
Holy Cross	89.0
Southeastern
Team	Rating
Alabama	119.5
Arkansas	114.6
Tennessee	114.6
LSU	113.6
Florida	113.3
Missouri	111.4
Auburn	110.7
Mississippi	110.4
Kentucky	109.7
South Carolina	107.5
Mississippi St.	107.0
Georgia	106.3
Vanderbilt	104.4
Texas A&M	103.0
Southern
Team	Rating
Furman	105.9
UNC Greensboro	104.3
East Tennessee St.	103.2
Wofford	101.6
Mercer	100.6
Chattanooga	100.3
VMI	99.7
Western Carolina	94.9
The Citadel	94.8
Samford	93.7
Southland
Team	Rating
Abilene Christian	106.1
Stephen F. Austin	100.2
Sam Houston St.	99.9
Nicholls St.	97.6
Northwestern St.	90.8
New Orleans	90.6
Incarnate Word	90.5
Southeastern Louisiana	89.7
Houston Baptist	89.1
Central Arkansas	88.9
Lamar	88.6
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	88.0
McNeese St.	87.7
Summit
Team	Rating
South Dakota St.	104.0
North Dakota St.	100.6
South Dakota	99.6
Oral Roberts	99.5
UMKC	96.9
North Dakota	91.9
Western Illinois	91.3
Nebraska Omaha	90.7
Denver	87.0
Southwestern Athletic
Team	Rating
Prairie View A&M	95.7
Texas Southern	95.4
Jackson St.	93.1
Southern	92.2
Grambling St.	90.6
Alabama A&M	87.4
Alcorn St.	86.9
Arkansas Pine Bluff	83.3
Alabama St.	83.1
Mississippi Valley St.	70.7
Sun Belt
Team	Rating
Georgia St.	101.1
Texas St.	100.5
Coastal Carolina	99.6
Louisiana	98.1
Appalachian St.	97.7
South Alabama	97.5
Little Rock	97.2
Arkansas St.	95.3
UT Arlington	95.3
Georgia Southern	94.1
Troy	92.8
Louisiana Monroe	91.3
Western Athletic
Team	Rating
Grand Canyon	103.2
New Mexico St.	100.7
UT Rio Grande Valley	96.4
Utah Valley	94.5
Cal Baptist	94.5
Seattle	94.4
Tarleton St.	91.0
Dixie St.	87.9
Chicago St.	80.6
West Coast
Team	Rating
Gonzaga	128.1
BYU	112.3
Saint Mary’s	107.0
San Francisco	106.2
Pepperdine	104.6
Loyola Marymount	103.7
Pacific	103.6
Santa Clara	101.5
San Diego	97.9
Portland	89.0

Alphabetically

Rk	Team	Rating
93	Abilene Christian	106.1
305	Air Force	90.8
92	Akron	106.1
5	Alabama	119.5
335	Alabama A&M	87.4
344	Alabama St.	83.1
221	Albany	96.1
337	Alcorn St.	86.9
241	American	95.1
193	Appalachian St.	97.7
41	Arizona	111.6
85	Arizona St.	106.7
19	Arkansas	114.6
343	Arkansas Pine Bluff	83.3
235	Arkansas St.	95.3
182	Army	99.2
49	Auburn	110.7
185	Austin Peay	98.4
148	Ball St.	100.9
2	Baylor	124.0
163	Bellarmine	100.2
71	Belmont	108.3
328	Binghamton	88.2
63	Boise St.	109.6
119	Boston College	103.9
266	Boston University	93.7
132	Bowling Green	102.5
133	Bradley	102.4
199	Bryant	97.4
245	Bucknell	94.8
79	Buffalo	107.1
115	Butler	104.1
30	BYU	112.3
250	Cal Baptist	94.5
338	Cal Poly	86.9
137	Cal St. Bakersfield	102.0
275	Cal St. Fullerton	93.3
292	Cal St. Northridge	91.9
134	California	102.3
253	Campbell	94.3
215	Canisius	96.5
326	Central Arkansas	88.9
333	Central Connecticut	87.7
255	Central Michigan	94.2
220	Charleston	96.2
329	Charleston Southern	88.2
198	Charlotte	97.5
159	Chattanooga	100.3
346	Chicago St.	80.6
95	Cincinnati	105.9
54	Clemson	110.5
150	Cleveland St.	100.7
172	Coastal Carolina	99.6
94	Colgate	106.1
15	Colorado	114.9
67	Colorado St.	108.9
45	Connecticut	111.3
315	Coppin St.	90.2
13	Creighton	115.5
70	Davidson	108.3
88	Dayton	106.3
211	Delaware	96.8
342	Delaware St.	83.3
336	Denver	87.0
126	DePaul	103.4
157	Detroit	100.4
332	Dixie St.	87.9
61	Drake	110.1
158	Drexel	100.4
31	Duke	112.3
107	Duquesne	104.6
135	East Carolina	102.3
128	East Tennessee St.	103.2
311	Eastern Illinois	90.5
169	Eastern Kentucky	99.8
252	Eastern Michigan	94.4
120	Eastern Washington	103.9
270	Elon	93.6
205	Evansville	97.0
321	Fairfield	89.6
282	Fairleigh Dickinson	92.6
276	FIU	93.2
28	Florida	113.3
264	Florida A&M	93.8
195	Florida Atlantic	97.6
257	Florida Gulf Coast	94.2
17	Florida St.	114.8
279	Fordham	93.0
191	Fresno St.	97.8
96	Furman	105.9
200	Gardner Webb	97.4
140	George Mason	101.8
204	George Washington	97.1
98	Georgetown	105.9
87	Georgia	106.3
259	Georgia Southern	94.1
147	Georgia St.	101.1
60	Georgia Tech	110.3
1	Gonzaga	128.1
309	Grambling St.	90.6
129	Grand Canyon	103.2
244	Green Bay	94.8
316	Hampton	90.0
222	Hartford	96.0
186	Hawaii	98.3
273	High Point	93.5
166	Hofstra	100.0
324	Holy Cross	89.0
8	Houston	117.8
323	Houston Baptist	89.1
298	Howard (opted out)	91.5
341	Idaho	84.0
271	Idaho St.	93.6
6	Illinois	119.0
260	Illinois Chicago	94.0
202	Illinois St.	97.2
310	Incarnate Word	90.5
29	Indiana	112.3
127	Indiana St.	103.4
213	Iona	96.7
3	Iowa	120.1
146	Iowa St.	101.1
258	IUPUI	94.2
278	Jackson St.	93.1
297	Jacksonville	91.5
178	Jacksonville St.	99.4
164	James Madison	100.1
22	Kansas	114.0
187	Kansas St.	98.1
339	Kennesaw St.	86.2
90	Kent St.	106.2
62	Kentucky	109.7
181	La Salle	99.3
238	Lafayette	95.2
327	Lamar	88.6
319	Lehigh	89.8
108	Liberty	104.6
214	Lipscomb	96.6
203	Little Rock	97.2
280	LIU	92.9
274	Long Beach St.	93.3
230	Longwood	95.5
188	Louisiana	98.1
299	Louisiana Monroe	91.3
86	Louisiana Tech	106.5
38	Louisville	111.8
9	Loyola Chicago	116.5
122	Loyola Marymount	103.7
229	Loyola MD	95.6
24	LSU	113.6
330	Maine (opted out)	88.2
290	Manhattan	92.1
262	Marist	93.9
89	Marquette	106.2
66	Marshall	109.0
39	Maryland	111.7
102	Massachusetts	105.1
334	McNeese St.	87.7
44	Memphis	111.3
153	Mercer	100.6
254	Merrimack	94.2
130	Miami FL	103.1
171	Miami OH	99.7
4	Michigan	119.9
68	Michigan St.	108.7
265	Middle Tennessee	93.8
225	Milwaukee	95.8
35	Minnesota	111.9
57	Mississippi	110.4
82	Mississippi St.	107.0
347	Mississippi Valley St.	70.7
43	Missouri	111.4
100	Missouri St.	105.8
175	Monmouth	99.6
183	Montana	99.0
206	Montana St.	96.9
139	Morehead St.	101.8
248	Morgan St.	94.7
212	Mount St. Mary’s	96.7
138	Murray St.	102.0
80	N.C. State	107.1
161	Navy	100.2
114	Nebraska	104.3
307	Nebraska Omaha	90.7
97	Nevada	105.9
267	New Hampshire	93.7
268	New Mexico	93.7
151	New Mexico St.	100.7
308	New Orleans	90.6
226	Niagara	95.7
194	Nicholls St.	97.6
240	NJIT	95.1
232	Norfolk St.	95.5
296	North Alabama	91.6
40	North Carolina	111.7
294	North Carolina A&T	91.8
283	North Carolina Central	92.5
293	North Dakota	91.9
152	North Dakota St.	100.6
286	North Florida	92.3
77	North Texas	107.3
160	Northeastern	100.2
304	Northern Arizona	90.9
223	Northern Colorado	95.8
300	Northern Illinois	91.3
174	Northern Iowa	99.6
197	Northern Kentucky	97.5
72	Northwestern	108.2
306	Northwestern St.	90.8
59	Notre Dame	110.3
217	Oakland	96.5
105	Ohio	104.7
7	Ohio St.	118.1
23	Oklahoma	113.9
42	Oklahoma St.	111.6
149	Old Dominion	100.9
176	Oral Roberts	99.5
32	Oregon	112.1
123	Oregon St.	103.6
124	Pacific	103.6
34	Penn St.	112.1
106	Pepperdine	104.6
75	Pittsburgh	107.9
325	Portland	89.0
272	Portland St.	93.6
227	Prairie View A&M	95.7
313	Presbyterian	90.4
73	Providence	107.9
25	Purdue	113.5
289	Purdue Fort Wayne	92.1
285	Quinnipiac	92.4
184	Radford	98.6
74	Rhode Island	107.9
179	Rice	99.4
52	Richmond	110.6
295	Rider	91.7
277	Robert Morris	93.1
26	Rutgers	113.5
231	Sacramento St.	95.5
302	Sacred Heart	91.1
216	Saint Joseph’s	96.5
36	Saint Louis	111.9
83	Saint Mary’s	107.0
180	Saint Peter’s	99.4
168	Sam Houston St.	99.9
269	Samford	93.7
189	San Diego	97.9
27	San Diego St.	113.5
91	San Francisco	106.2
318	San Jose St.	89.9
143	Santa Clara	101.5
251	Seattle	94.4
33	Seton Hall	112.1
144	Siena	101.4
284	SIU Edwardsville	92.4
53	SMU	110.6
196	South Alabama	97.5
76	South Carolina	107.5
345	South Carolina St.	81.3
173	South Dakota	99.6
117	South Dakota St.	104.0
125	South Florida	103.6
291	Southeast Missouri St.	92.0
320	Southeastern Louisiana	89.7
288	Southern	92.2
209	Southern Illinois	96.8
247	Southern Miss	94.7
192	Southern Utah	97.8
55	St. Bonaventure	110.4
314	St. Francis NY	90.3
287	St. Francis PA	92.2
64	St. John’s	109.4
56	Stanford	110.4
162	Stephen F. Austin	100.2
237	Stetson	95.2
239	Stony Brook	95.2
51	Syracuse	110.6
303	Tarleton St.	91.0
110	TCU	104.5
136	Temple	102.0
20	Tennessee	114.6
340	Tennessee Martin	86.1
322	Tennessee St.	89.4
317	Tennessee Tech	89.9
18	Texas	114.7
131	Texas A&M	103.0
331	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	88.0
234	Texas Southern	95.4
156	Texas St.	100.5
21	Texas Tech	114.2
243	The Citadel	94.8
65	Toledo	109.1
263	Towson	93.8
281	Troy	92.8
142	Tulane	101.5
111	Tulsa	104.4
99	UAB	105.8
218	UC Davis	96.4
116	UC Irvine	104.1
121	UC Riverside	103.8
224	UC San Diego	95.8
84	UC Santa Barbara	107.0
104	UCF	104.8
58	UCLA	110.4
228	UMass Lowell	95.7
167	UMBC	100.0
207	UMKC	96.9
210	UNC Asheville	96.8
113	UNC Greensboro	104.3
208	UNC Wilmington	96.9
145	UNLV	101.1
10	USC	115.9
312	USC Upstate	90.4
236	UT Arlington	95.3
219	UT Rio Grande Valley	96.4
69	Utah	108.6
47	Utah St.	111.1
249	Utah Valley	94.5
155	UTEP	100.5
177	UTSA	99.5
201	Valparaiso	97.3
112	Vanderbilt	104.4
46	VCU	111.2
118	Vermont	104.0
12	Villanova	115.6
11	Virginia	115.6
37	Virginia Tech	111.9
170	VMI	99.7
246	Wagner	94.7
109	Wake Forest	104.5
165	Washington	100.1
103	Washington St.	104.9
154	Weber St.	100.5
16	West Virginia	114.9
242	Western Carolina	94.9
301	Western Illinois	91.3
78	Western Kentucky	107.2
256	Western Michigan	94.2
81	Wichita St.	107.1
261	William & Mary	93.9
101	Winthrop	105.3
14	Wisconsin	115.1
141	Wofford	101.6
48	Wright St.	110.8
190	Wyoming	97.9
50	Xavier	110.6
233	Youngstown St.	95.5

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 5, 2021

Date	2/5/2021
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Michigan	Villanova
2	Houston	Ohio St.	Texas	Iowa
3	Alabama	Illinois	Virginia	Missouri
4	Oklahoma	Texas Tech	Virginia Tech	Wisconsin
5	Tennessee	Creighton	Florida St.	West Virginia
6	Florida	UCLA	Purdue	Oklahoma St.
7	Louisville	Minnesota	Kansas	USC
8	Xavier	Colorado	Rutgers	Oregon
9	Drake	Clemson	BYU	Boise St.
10	Connecticut	St. Bonaventure	North Carolina	San Diego St.
11	Colorado St.	LSU	Indiana	Arkansas
12	Winthrop	Toledo	Loyola (Chi.)	Richmond	Stanford	Utah St.
13	Belmont	UNCG	UAB	Louisiana
14	Stephen F. Austin	South Dakota	Liberty	UC-Irvine
15	Siena	Grand Canyon	Cleveland St.	Vermont
16	Navy	Northeastern	Bryant	Montana St.	N. C. A&T	Prairie View

Bubble

Maryland

Syracuse

Saint Louis

VCU

SMU

Duke

Seton Hall

Western Ky.

PiRate Ratings for 2/5/2021

Rk	Team	Conf.	Rating
1	Gonzaga	WCC	126.0
2	Baylor	B12	124.4
3	Michigan	BTen	119.1
4	Alabama	SEC	118.8
5	Iowa	BTen	118.4
6	Illinois	BTen	118.3
7	Houston	AAC	117.1
8	Ohio St.	BTen	116.7
9	Villanova	BE	116.0
10	Texas	B12	115.8
11	Wisconsin	BTen	115.4
12	Texas Tech	B12	115.1
13	Florida St.	ACC	115.0
14	Loyola Chicago	MVC	114.9
15	Virginia	ACC	114.8
16	Tennessee	SEC	114.6
17	Creighton	BE	114.5
18	USC	P12	114.4
19	Colorado	P12	114.1
20	West Virginia	B12	114.0
21	Oklahoma	B12	114.0
22	Arkansas	SEC	113.9
23	Kansas	B12	113.7
24	Rutgers	BTen	113.3
25	Purdue	BTen	113.3
26	Florida	SEC	113.2
27	San Diego St.	MWC	113.1
28	Duke	ACC	112.6
29	Indiana	BTen	112.5
30	Missouri	SEC	112.5
31	Penn St.	BTen	112.3
32	Oklahoma St.	B12	112.2
33	Connecticut	BE	111.9
34	LSU	SEC	111.8
35	Louisville	ACC	111.8
36	Minnesota	BTen	111.7
37	Virginia Tech	ACC	111.7
38	Oregon	P12	111.7
39	North Carolina	ACC	111.7
40	BYU	WCC	111.7
41	Arizona	P12	111.7
42	UCLA	P12	111.6
43	Seton Hall	BE	111.6
44	Memphis	AAC	111.4
45	Stanford	P12	111.3
46	Xavier	BE	111.1
47	Syracuse	ACC	111.1
48	Utah St.	MWC	111.1
49	Maryland	BTen	111.0
50	St. Bonaventure	A10	110.6
51	Saint Louis	A10	110.5
52	Auburn	SEC	110.5
53	Richmond	A10	110.5
54	Drake	MVC	110.4
55	VCU	A10	110.4
56	Toledo	MAC	110.2
57	Kentucky	SEC	110.1
58	Boise St.	MWC	109.9
59	SMU	AAC	109.8
60	Clemson	ACC	109.7
61	Georgia Tech	ACC	109.7
62	Michigan St.	BTen	109.6
63	Wright St.	Hor	109.2
64	St. John’s	BE	109.1
65	Notre Dame	ACC	109.1
66	Rhode Island	A10	108.8
67	Utah	P12	108.7
68	Colorado St.	MWC	108.7
69	Mississippi	SEC	108.7
70	Davidson	A10	108.5
71	South Carolina	SEC	108.3
72	Mississippi St.	SEC	108.0
73	N.C. State	ACC	108.0
74	Northwestern	BTen	108.0
75	Marshall	CUSA	107.9
76	Providence	BE	107.8
77	Arizona St.	P12	107.6
78	Pittsburgh	ACC	107.5
79	Marquette	BE	107.5
80	Wichita St.	AAC	107.2
81	San Francisco	WCC	107.2
82	Saint Mary’s	WCC	107.0
83	Dayton	A10	106.8
84	Cincinnati	AAC	106.7
85	Western Kentucky	CUSA	106.7
86	Georgia	SEC	106.4
87	UC Santa Barbara	BW	106.2
88	Belmont	OVC	106.1
89	North Texas	CUSA	106.1
90	Tulsa	AAC	106.0
91	Furman	Sou	105.9
92	UAB	CUSA	105.6
93	Kent St.	MAC	105.4
94	Georgetown	BE	105.3
95	TCU	B12	105.3
96	Boston College	ACC	105.2
97	Buffalo	MAC	105.1
98	Duquesne	A10	105.0
99	Colgate	Pat	104.9
100	South Dakota St.	Sum	104.9
101	Nevada	MWC	104.8
102	Butler	BE	104.7
103	Abilene Christian	Sthlnd	104.7
104	Vermont	AE	104.7
105	Akron	MAC	104.6
106	DePaul	BE	104.5
107	South Florida	AAC	104.5
108	UNC Greensboro	Sou	104.5
109	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	104.4
110	Massachusetts	A10	104.2
111	Liberty	ASun	104.2
112	Ohio	MAC	104.1
113	UCF	AAC	104.1
114	Washington St.	P12	103.8
115	Winthrop	BSou	103.7
116	UC Irvine	BW	103.7
117	Oregon St.	P12	103.5
118	Miami FL	ACC	103.5
119	Wake Forest	ACC	103.5
120	Loyola Marymount	WCC	103.4
121	Grand Canyon	WAC	103.3
122	Nebraska	BTen	103.3
123	Texas A&M	SEC	102.9
124	Bradley	MVC	102.9
125	Pepperdine	WCC	102.8
126	Pacific	WCC	102.8
127	East Tennessee St.	Sou	102.7
128	Iowa St.	B12	102.5
129	Missouri St.	MVC	102.5
130	Vanderbilt	SEC	102.4
131	Indiana St.	MVC	102.4
132	UC Riverside	BW	102.4
133	Georgia St.	SB	102.4
134	East Carolina	AAC	102.3
135	Wofford	Sou	102.3
136	New Mexico St.	WAC	102.1
137	Eastern Washington	BSky	102.1
138	Siena	MAAC	101.5
139	UNLV	MWC	101.4
140	Santa Clara	WCC	101.2
141	Northern Iowa	MVC	101.2
142	Bowling Green	MAC	101.1
143	Temple	AAC	101.0
144	Old Dominion	CUSA	101.0
145	George Mason	A10	101.0
146	Cal St. Bakersfield	BW	100.9
147	California	P12	100.8
148	Morehead St.	OVC	100.8
149	Northeastern	CAA	100.7
150	North Dakota St.	Sum	100.6
151	Murray St.	OVC	100.5
152	Coastal Carolina	SB	100.4
153	Drexel	CAA	100.3
154	Hofstra	CAA	100.3
155	Texas St.	SB	100.3
156	Mercer	Sou	100.2
157	Stephen F. Austin	Sthlnd	100.2
158	Washington	P12	100.1
159	South Dakota	Sum	100.1
160	Miami OH	MAC	99.9
161	La Salle	A10	99.9
162	Navy	Pat	99.9
163	Saint Peter’s	MAAC	99.9
164	Monmouth	MAAC	99.8
165	Little Rock	SB	99.7
166	Charlotte	CUSA	99.6
167	Louisiana	SB	99.6
168	Weber St.	BSky	99.6
169	Cleveland St.	Hor	99.6
170	UTEP	CUSA	99.6
171	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	99.4
172	Montana	BSky	99.3
173	Ball St.	MAC	99.1
174	Army	Pat	99.1
175	James Madison	CAA	98.9
176	Tulane	AAC	98.9
177	UMBC	AE	98.7
178	Detroit	Hor	98.6
179	Oral Roberts	Sum	98.5
180	Chattanooga	Sou	98.5
181	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	98.5
182	VMI	Sou	98.4
183	Austin Peay	OVC	98.0
184	Montana St.	BSky	97.9
185	Fresno St.	MWC	97.9
186	Appalachian St.	SB	97.9
187	Wyoming	MWC	97.9
188	San Diego	WCC	97.8
189	Kansas St.	B12	97.7
190	Sam Houston St.	Sthlnd	97.7
191	Bryant	NEC	97.7
192	Jacksonville St.	OVC	97.5
193	Southern Utah	BSky	97.5
194	Nicholls St.	Sthlnd	97.4
195	Southern Illinois	MVC	97.4
196	Bellarmine	ASun	97.4
197	Radford	BSou	97.4
198	Hawaii	BW	97.4
199	Rice	CUSA	97.3
200	George Washington	A10	97.1
201	Gardner Webb	BSou	97.0
202	UT Arlington	SB	96.8
203	Iona	MAAC	96.8
204	Delaware	CAA	96.8
205	Oakland	Hor	96.8
206	UNC Wilmington	CAA	96.7
207	Lafayette	Pat	96.6
208	Charleston	CAA	96.6
209	UTSA	CUSA	96.6
210	Lipscomb	ASun	96.5
211	UC Davis	BW	96.5
212	South Alabama	SB	96.4
213	Saint Joseph’s	A10	96.4
214	UMKC	Sum	96.3
215	UNC Asheville	BSou	96.1
216	FIU	CUSA	96.1
217	UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	96.1
218	Milwaukee	Hor	96.0
219	UC San Diego	BW	95.9
220	Stetson	ASun	95.9
221	Hartford	AE	95.9
222	Valparaiso	MVC	95.9
223	Albany	AE	95.9
224	Niagara	MAAC	95.8
225	UMass Lowell	AE	95.8
226	Sacramento St.	BSky	95.8
227	Mount St. Mary’s	NEC	95.8
228	Northern Kentucky	Hor	95.8
229	Northern Colorado	BSky	95.7
230	Evansville	MVC	95.7
231	Prairie View A&M	SWAC	95.7
232	Illinois Chicago	Hor	95.6
233	Stony Brook	AE	95.4
234	Canisius	MAAC	95.3
235	Illinois St.	MVC	95.3
236	Texas Southern	SWAC	95.3
237	Norfolk St.	MEAC	95.2
238	Western Carolina	Sou	95.1
239	Southern Miss	CUSA	95.0
240	NJIT	AE	95.0
241	Green Bay	Hor	95.0
242	Bucknell	Pat	94.8
243	American	Pat	94.8
244	Youngstown St.	Hor	94.7
245	Morgan St.	MEAC	94.6
246	Utah Valley	WAC	94.5
247	Boston University	Pat	94.3
248	Fordham	A10	94.3
249	North Alabama	ASun	94.3
250	LIU	NEC	94.3
251	Central Michigan	MAC	94.2
252	Wagner	NEC	94.2
253	Eastern Michigan	MAC	94.2
254	Longwood	BSou	94.2
255	Western Michigan	MAC	94.0
256	Loyola MD	Pat	94.0
257	Samford	Sou	94.0
258	Elon	CAA	93.9
259	William & Mary	CAA	93.8
260	Purdue Fort Wayne	Hor	93.8
261	Robert Morris	Hor	93.8
262	Georgia Southern	SB	93.8
263	Towson	CAA	93.8
264	Marist	MAAC	93.7
265	Troy	SB	93.7
266	New Mexico	MWC	93.6
267	North Carolina Central	MEAC	93.5
268	New Hampshire	AE	93.4
269	Campbell	BSou	93.4
270	Arkansas St.	SB	93.4
271	Quinnipiac	MAAC	93.4
272	High Point	BSou	93.4
273	Cal Baptist	WAC	93.3
274	Middle Tennessee	CUSA	93.3
275	Southern	SWAC	93.1
276	Idaho St.	BSky	93.1
277	North Florida	ASun	93.0
278	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	92.8
279	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	92.8
280	Portland St.	BSky	92.8
281	Long Beach St.	BW	92.7
282	Seattle	WAC	92.5
283	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	92.5
284	Nebraska Omaha	Sum	92.4
285	Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	92.3
286	St. Francis PA	NEC	92.3
287	Merrimack	NEC	92.2
288	Jackson St.	SWAC	92.2
289	Florida A&M	MEAC	92.2
290	The Citadel	Sou	92.0
291	IUPUI	Hor	91.9
292	Jacksonville	ASun	91.9
293	Cal St. Northridge	BW	91.8
294	Manhattan	MAAC	91.7
295	Rider	MAAC	91.7
296	SIU Edwardsville	OVC	91.6
297	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	91.4
298	St. Francis NY	NEC	91.3
299	Northern Illinois	MAC	91.3
300	Louisiana Monroe	SB	91.3
301	USC Upstate	BSou	91.2
302	Central Arkansas	Sthlnd	91.1
303	Howard	MEAC	91.0
304	Sacred Heart	NEC	91.0
305	Air Force	MWC	90.9
306	North Dakota	Sum	90.9
307	Northern Arizona	BSky	90.8
308	Northwestern St.	Sthlnd	90.8
309	Tarleton St.	WAC	90.7
310	Hampton	BSou	90.6
311	New Orleans	Sthlnd	90.6
312	Eastern Illinois	OVC	90.5
313	Tennessee St.	OVC	90.3
314	San Jose St.	MWC	90.2
315	Tennessee Tech	OVC	89.9
316	Fairfield	MAAC	89.9
317	Incarnate Word	Sthlnd	89.8
318	Western Illinois	Sum	89.8
319	Lehigh	Pat	89.8
320	Portland	WCC	89.7
321	Grambling St.	SWAC	89.7
322	Presbyterian	BSou	89.5
323	Southeastern Louisiana	Sthlnd	89.4
324	Central Connecticut	NEC	89.4
325	Coppin St.	MEAC	89.1
326	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Sthlnd	88.6
327	Lamar	Sthlnd	88.6
328	Houston Baptist	Sthlnd	88.4
329	Dixie St.	WAC	88.3
330	Maine	AE	88.1
331	Alabama A&M	SWAC	88.1
332	Binghamton	AE	88.0
333	Holy Cross	Pat	87.9
334	Charleston Southern	BSou	87.5
335	Denver	Sum	87.4
336	Cal Poly	BW	87.2
337	Alcorn St.	SWAC	87.1
338	McNeese St.	Sthlnd	86.7
339	Kennesaw St.	ASun	85.7
340	Tennessee Martin	OVC	85.6
341	Idaho	BSky	84.6
342	Alabama St.	SWAC	83.1
343	Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	83.1
344	Delaware St.	MEAC	82.4
345	South Carolina St.	MEAC	81.3
346	Chicago St.	WAC	80.3
347	Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	70.7

Note–Full ratings and predictions on some games commence next week.

PiRate Ratings NFL for Week 2

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Cleveland	Cincinnati	3.2	2.7	3.1	44
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	7.3	6.4	8.3	41.5
Dallas	Atlanta	2.6	3.9	2.8	49
Green Bay	Detroit	9.2	8.9	9.4	47.5
Tennessee	Jacksonville	5.6	6.2	6.2	41
Indianapolis	Minnesota	0.4	0.3	-0.1	45
Miami	Buffalo	-5.8	-5.5	-6.5	41
N.Y. Jets	San Francisco	-7.9	-6.2	-8.3	44
Philadelphia	LA Rams	0.0	0.1	-1.6	48
Pittsburgh	Denver	5.1	5.8	5.0	32.5
Tampa Bay	Carolina	7.1	7.7	7.5	59.5
Arizona	Washington	8.0	6.9	8.0	49.5
LA Chargers	Kansas City	-7.8	-8.6	-7.5	44.5
Houston	Baltimore	-7.4	-8.1	-7.9	49
Seattle	New England	6.0	6.8	6.0	45.5
Las Vegas	New Orleans	-7.6	-6.8	-7.9	48

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	101.3	102.3	101.4	101.7	15.5	1-0
New England	101.1	100.7	101.1	101.0	18.5	1-0
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.8	94.1	94.9	19	0-1
Miami	93.5	94.8	92.9	93.7	25.5	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	110.2	110.1	110.7	110.3	25.5	1-0
Pittsburgh	102.0	102.6	101.9	102.2	17	1-0
Cleveland	97.0	96.8	96.9	96.9	22	0-1
Cincinnati	94.8	95.1	94.8	94.9	22	0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	101.3	100.5	101.3	101.0	23.5	0-1
Tennessee	100.0	100.3	100.7	100.3	21.5	1-0
Indianapolis	99.7	99.4	99.3	99.4	21.5	0-1
Jacksonville	95.9	95.6	96.0	95.8	19.5	1-0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.4	108.2	107.8	107.8	24.5	1-0
Denver	98.9	98.8	98.9	98.9	15.5	0-1
LA Chargers	98.1	98.1	98.8	98.3	20	1-0
Las Vegas	97.8	98.1	97.6	97.8	22.5	1-0
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	100.8	101.0	100.9	100.9	23.5	0-1
Philadelphia	98.5	98.4	97.9	98.2	23.0	0-1
Washington	95.6	95.9	95.6	95.7	21	1-0
N.Y. Giants	94.4	94.8	93.7	94.3	25.0	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	103.0	102.9	103.1	103.0	22.5	1-0
Minnesota	100.8	100.6	100.9	100.7	23.5	0-1
Chicago	100.2	99.7	100.5	100.1	16.5	1-0
Detroit	95.3	95.5	95.2	95.3	25	0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.9	107.4	108.0	107.8	25.5	1-0
Tampa Bay	102.0	101.8	101.9	101.9	32	0-1
Atlanta	100.2	99.1	100.1	99.8	25.5	0-1
Carolina	96.4	95.6	95.9	96.0	27.5	0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	105.1	104.5	104.9	104.9	25	0-1
Seattle	104.6	105.0	104.6	104.8	27	1-0
Arizona	101.1	100.3	101.1	100.8	28.5	1-0
LA Rams	100.5	100.3	101.5	100.8	25	1-0

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sep 3-7

This Week’s Games

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Southern Miss.	South Alabama	7.3	6.5	9.3
Army	Middle Tenn.	5.2	6.9	4.5
Texas St.	SMU	-22.6	-21.1	-24.1
Memphis	Arkansas St.	18.0	13.9	17.7
Navy	BYU	4.9	4.5	3.3

FBS vs. FCS (PiRate Only)

FBS	FCS	PiRate
UAB	Cent. Arkansas	8.6
Marshall	E. Kentucky	21.5
North Texas	Hou. Baptist	26.9
UTEP	S F Austin	7.8

Note: Game Spreads Have Been Adjusted From Ratings Due To Covid-19 Opt-outs.

This Week’s Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.
1	Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3
2	L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
3	Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
4	Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
5	Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
6	Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
7	Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2
8	Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0
9	Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
10	Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7
11	Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
12	N. Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8
13	Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
14	Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6
15	Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1
16	Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
17	UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
18	Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
19	Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
20	Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
21	S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
22	Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
23	Ole Miss	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
24	Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0
25	Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0
26	Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
27	T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
28	Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
29	Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6
30	Miss. St.	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
31	Appal. St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2
32	Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0
33	Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2
34	SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7
35	BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3
36	Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2
37	W. Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7
38	Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2
39	Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
40	Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
41	Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4
42	Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7
43	Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0
44	W. Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7
45	Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
46	Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
47	Georgia Sou.	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0
48	Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
49	Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4
50	Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3
51	Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6
52	Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
53	USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2
54	NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
55	U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4
56	Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
57	Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6
58	E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
59	Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3
60	Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8
61	Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5
62	Coastal Car.	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6
63	Middle Tenn.	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8
64	Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
65	Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
66	La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
67	Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
68	Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4
69	Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
70	UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3
71	S. Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6
72	Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
73	North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
74	Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6
75	U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3
76	U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8	0-0	0-0
Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1	0-0	0-0
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1	0-0	0-0
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7	0-0	0-0
Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0	0-0	0-0
SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7	0-0	0-0
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2	0-0	0-0
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1	0-0	0-0
Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6	0-0	0-0
USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2	0-0	0-0
E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9	0-0	0-0
AAC Averages	101.5	100.7	100.4	100.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3	0-0	0-0
Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2	0-0	0-0
N. Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8	0-0	0-0
Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1	0-0	0-0
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9	0-0	0-0
Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0	0-0	0-0
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4	0-0	0-0
Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6	0-0	0-0
Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2	0-0	0-0
Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2	0-0	0-0
Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5	0-0	0-0
Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7	0-0	0-0
Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0	0-0	0-0
Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-0
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6	0-0	0-0
ACC Averages	104.9	105.4	105.3	105.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0	0-0	0-0
Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7	0-0	0-0
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3	0-0	0-0
Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6	0-0	0-0
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1	0-0	0-0
Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0	0-0	0-0
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3	0-0	0-0
W. Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7	0-0	0-0
Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4	0-0	0-0
Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5	0-0	0-0
Big 12 Averages	106.7	106.0	106.7	106.5
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
W. Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7	0-0	0-0
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5	0-0	0-0
Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3	0-0	0-0
U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4	0-0	0-0
Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3	0-0	0-0
Middle Tenn.	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8	0-0	0-0
La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4	0-0	0-0
Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4	0-0	0-0
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3	0-0	0-0
Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9	0-0	0-0
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7	0-0	0-0
U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3	0-0	0-0
U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9	0-0	0-0
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.0	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3	x	0-0
Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8	x	0-0
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4	x	0-0
Ind. Averages	92.7	94.0	92.7	93.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8	0-0	0-0
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9	0-0	0-0
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8	0-0	0-0
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2	0-0	0-0
S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3	0-0	0-0
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5	0-0	0-0
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8	0-0	0-0
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3	0-0	0-0
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5	0-0	0-0
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8	0-0	0-0
Miss. St.	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1	0-0	0-0
Ole Miss	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4	0-0	0-0
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3	0-0	0-0
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Appal. St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2	0-0	0-0
Georgia Sou.	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0	0-0	0-0
Coastal Car.	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6	0-0	0-0
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8	0-0	0-0
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2	0-0	0-0
Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6	0-0	0-0
UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3	0-0	0-0
S. Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6	0-0	0-0
Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6	0-0	0-0
SBC Averages	90.1	90.7	89.9	90.2

This Week’s Free College Pick–And You Get What You Pay For!

We are toning down the selections against the spread this year due to the lack of games each week and the uncertainty of available personnel.  We will issue a minimum of selections and highly urge you to not use this non-advice.  All wagers will be done at the pretend amount of $100 units.

 

1. Money Line Parlay (+103)

        Southern Miss over South Alabama

        Navy over BYU

The PiRates Are Hard At Work For Football Season

Hello Mates.

This is the head PiRate telling you that we have set sail and are on our way out to the green sea, otherwise known as the Football Field.

We have already begun to update our college football ratings for the 2018 season.  We have a unique way of updating our ratings from the end of the previous season to the beginning of the new season.  We have point values assigned to every starting and backup position on offense and defense plus an overall rating for the components of special teams.

For instance, as it should be obvious, the Quarterback is the most important position in college football.  So, we take special care in determining how many points better or worse each of the 130 teams is in week one compared to their final game of the year before by adding or subtracting points based on the QB.  We look at certain analytics data, just like baseball teams look at advanced statistics.  We actually have our own version of WAR for college football.  Instead of Batting, Fielding, and Pitching WAR, we have offense, defense, and special teams WAR, only instead of putting the final numbers into wins above average, we use points per game above average.  In the PiRate Ratings, a rating of 100.0 is average.  If a quarterback is worth 6.3 points better than an average QB, then before we look at the reserves, a team that is totally average at every other position would begin the season at 106.3 for this particular piece of the ratings’ puzzle.  If a quarterback has been determined to be 3.8 points below average, it would reduce the average team from 100.0 to 96.2.

On offense, the receiving corps is the next most important part of the equation, while the offensive line and running back corps are equal in importance as the last two parts.

Defensively, we look at all three units as they play against the run and the pass.  Stopping the pass is more important these days than stopping the run.  Interceptions, Passes Broken Up, Sacks, and Hurries are all parts of the Pass defense stats we look at.  We also have special ratings for nose guards that have the responsibility of taking up space and keeping blockers away from the linebackers, as these heroes of the trenches rarely show up in box scores, until one of the behemoths gets injured, and his replacement prevents the star will linebacker from making his usual 14 tackles with 2 for loss.

We have an intangible part of this equation as well.  Say a team has a change in coaches.  The old coach was a spread option or flexbone disciple, while the new coach is an air raid disciple.  It’s going to take 2-4 years to fully implement the changes, as that five foot nine inch triple option QB is not going to work as a dropback passer.

Another example in an intangible is the team that had 9 key injuries the year before, and 8 of the 9 return at 100% after missing parts or all of the year before.

In 2018, there will be a case where a potential all-star junior quarterback will transfer from one Power 5 school to another and be immediately eligible.  This will have major effects on his new team, much more than if he were the top incoming freshman in the nation.  This QB has already proven himself in a power conference, while the top incoming freshman only proved himself in Georgia high school action.  There is a difference as deep as the Grand Canyon in comparing the two, even though the incoming freshman might eventually become the next John Elway.  The seasoned starter showed what he could do when he passed for close to 350 yards against Auburn, while the freshman threw for 220 yards against Troup County High School.

This is just one piece of a 5-prong process.  We rate each team against every other team using 5 different processes.  Once we are done, we use three different algorithms to come up with a PiRate, Mean, and Bias rating for each of the 130 teams.  The PiRate and Bias differ by very little, so they will frequently be highly correlated, while the Mean rating is somewhat different than the other two, because it takes the equally-weighted average of the five ratings, while the other two apply heavier weights to some of the five components.  Because they share the exact same weighting of the prong we showed you above, these two tend to stay correlated.

We know we have a lot of advanced mathematicians reading our blog, and we are grateful for your patronage.  We try to make this more analytically dominated than you might get from other sports rating sites and even break down the fourth wall from time to time to show you what we do.

If you are not a math fan and just love football, then fear not.  We still hope to have computer ratings that are as accurate as possible, and we still will make fools of ourselves weekly to issue free picks that you can then take and gift to Las Vegas if you are foolish enough to not realize that these picks are worth exactly what you pay for them.

We have 10 weeks to go.  With a lot of late night work, we hope to have the ratings ready for you in 9 weeks max.

Thanks,

The Captain

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: September 28-October 2, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Green Bay	Chicago	10.8	11.4	10.6	46
Miami (London)	New Orleans	-3.0	-1.8	-3.6	52
New England	Carolina	9.5	10.8	9.1	49
Dallas	LA Rams	15.7	14.6	15.8	44
Minnesota	Detroit	1.1	0.4	1.4	43
Houston	Tennessee	-0.1	0.1	-0.1	41
N. Y. Jets	Jacksonville	-2.5	-3.2	-2.5	43
Cleveland	Cincinnati	-1.2	-1.3	-1.0	37
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	-1.5	-1.7	-0.8	41
Atlanta	Buffalo	10.3	9.5	10.4	53
Tampa Bay	N. Y. Giants	3.7	2.8	4.5	38
LA Chargers	Philadelphia	1.8	2.5	0.9	48
Arizona	San Francisco	10.1	10.6	10.0	49
Denver	Oakland	2.2	1.1	2.7	46
Seattle	Indianapolis	9.1	8.9	8.7	44
Kansas City	Washington	8.1	8.5	8.2	47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
New England	105.7	106.4	105.5	105.8	24
Buffalo	98.6	99.0	99.0	98.9	22
Miami	97.6	97.7	97.1	97.5	21
N. Y. Jets	92.9	92.5	92.9	92.8	19
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Pittsburgh	104.6	105.0	104.3	104.7	22
Baltimore	101.2	101.3	101.5	101.3	19
Cincinnati	97.6	98.0	97.6	97.8	16
Cleveland	94.4	94.8	94.7	94.6	21
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Tennessee	101.2	101.3	100.7	101.1	25
Houston	98.1	98.4	97.7	98.1	16
Jacksonville	98.0	98.2	97.9	98.0	24
Indianapolis	95.4	95.7	95.1	95.4	25
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Kansas City	105.5	105.6	106.0	105.7	21
Oakland	104.3	104.8	104.0	104.4	26
Denver	103.5	102.8	103.8	103.4	20
LA Chargers	99.5	99.1	99.4	99.3	25
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Dallas	104.2	103.3	104.3	104.0	24
Philadelphia	101.2	100.1	102.0	101.1	23
Washington	100.4	100.1	100.8	100.4	26
N.Y. Giants	99.4	99.6	99.1	99.4	15
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Detroit	102.4	103.2	102.4	102.7	24
Green Bay	102.6	103.3	102.1	102.7	26
Minnesota	100.5	100.6	100.8	100.6	19
Chicago	94.2	94.5	94.0	94.2	20
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Atlanta	105.9	105.5	106.4	105.9	31
New Orleans	100.6	99.5	100.8	100.3	31
Tampa Bay	100.2	99.4	100.6	100.1	23
Carolina	99.2	98.5	99.3	99.0	25
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Seattle	101.0	101.1	100.3	100.8	19
Arizona	99.4	99.6	99.1	99.4	24
San Francisco	92.2	92.1	92.1	92.1	25
LA Rams	91.5	91.7	91.5	91.6	20

Our Official Statement on the Current Situation in the NFL

Neither side is right and neither side is wrong.  There is too much black and white in this world, and this is no different.  Life should not be an either or situation on everything that exists, but the human race has not evolved enough to get past this fact.

The problem is that neither side understands tactfulness, maturity, diplomacy, and statesmanship.  Maybe, consultants have advised the two factions to reduce the problem to childlike fighting, and that is sad if the populace can only understand issues when reduced to a childlike mentality.

Nevertheless, the problem is that an entertaining three-hour escape from the stress of the real world has now been altered into just another stressful afternoon.  The 6 members of the PiRate Ratings have decided that the situation has eliminated the needed escape that  NFL Football provided us–up to 56 years for our oldest contributor.  Thus, on Sunday, none of us attended or viewed a game.  Tickets went unused at Lambeau Field, LP Field, and U.S. Bank Stadium.  A fouth stadium, Firstenergy in Cleveland, will join this list this week.  As best as we can estimate, this is the first time since sometime in 1963 that at least once of us has failed to watch an NFL game.

We have received more emails than we can respond to this week, and we will refrain from giving out the email address for now, because it will take a couple weeks to reply to all of them.  But, it is obvious that you our reader are more than likely to stop watching and attending than to watch or attend.  Actually, we have yet to receive an email in support of the players, and we can only surmise that some of you that did not send us a message are still watching.

Feel free to comment in the comment section of this entry.  If you refrain from profanity and comment in a civil and intelligent manner, your comment will be accepted.  We will censor any profanity or below-the-belt comments.  We are a scientific/mathematic website more interested in the numbers than the individuals on either side of this issue.

For those that have not seen this unaltered, here are the exact words of the 1st Amendment of the Bill of Rights.

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Why The Ratings Drop Does Matter

We have heard  many apologists proclaim that the drastic TV ratings drop had little or nothing to do with the current situation between the two opposing sides.  We have seen excuses such as “The Emmy Awards aired opposite SNF,” and “It was Oprah’s Debut on 60 Minutes.”

There is one telltale sign that tends to make us believe these apologies are off the mark.  While the ratings for the football games have dropped off the table, the ratings for the pre-game shows are actually up.  People are tuning in to the pre-game in greater numbers and then switching channels or turning the TV off before the kickoff.  This is a definite sign that the league has alienated a large number of fans, or maybe we should say former fans.  Turning the channel or turning off the TV in the middle of a time slot is considered a bigger deal than doing so at the top or bottom of the hour when programs change.  As a former journalist in radio and television, our founder understands the implications in local news when the ratings change during the weather segment or sports segment.

 

2017 Mountain West Conference Preview

In past years, the Mountain West Conference preview has come several days later.  We preview the conferences in reverse order of their overall power rating, and the MWC starts the 2017 season at its lowest rank in many years.  Part of that reason is that the one power program, Boise State, is not so powerful these days.  The Broncos are still very much a contender to win the Mountain Division and play in the league championship game, but they are not a prohibitive favorite, nor are they the regular favorite.

Last year, five teams competed for the Mountain Division title, while San Diego State cruised to the West Division title with no competition.  It should be more of the same formula this year, as the MWC Championship Game is starting to look like the Aztec Invitational Tournament.

Here is how the MWC Media picked the races in the preseason.

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total
1	Boise St.	21	161
2	Colorado St.	6	135
3	Wyoming	1	114
4	Air Force	0	82
5	New Mexico	0	68
6	Utah St.	0	28
West Divsion
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total
1	San Diego St.	28	168
2	Hawaii	0	135
3	UNLV	0	105
4	Nevada	0	79
5	San Jose St.	0	54
6	Fresno St.	0	47

The Preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings agree with SDSU being the clear cut favorite in the West, but they do not agree with the Mountain Division pick.  It looks like a three-team race in this division.

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colo. State	101.3	100.5	101.2	101.0
Wyoming	99.0	96.4	97.8	97.7
Boise St.	98.4	96.6	97.6	97.5
New Mexico	92.8	93.3	93.7	93.3
Air Force	91.5	92.2	91.8	91.8
Utah St.	87.7	86.7	86.9	87.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	99.7	100.7	101.3	100.6
Hawaii	88.8	90.8	88.6	89.4
U N L V	85.3	88.5	85.7	86.5
San Jose St.	86.2	85.5	85.5	85.7
Fresno St.	85.6	84.2	85.7	85.2
Nevada	83.0	86.9	85.3	85.0
MWC Averages	91.6	91.9	91.8	91.7

This is our not-so-scientific look at the projected standings and bowl projections.

Mountain West Conference Projected Standings
Mountain Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Wyoming	7-1	9-4	Idaho Potato
Colorado St.	7-1	9-3	Hawaii
Boise St.	6-2	8-4	Arizona
New Mexico	4-4	6-6	New Mexico
Air Force	3-5	5-7
Utah St.	1-7	2-10
West Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
San Diego St.	6-2	9-4	Las Vegas
Hawaii	3-5	5-7
UNLV	3-5	4-8
Nevada	2-6	3-9
Fresno St.	2-6	3-9
San Jose St.	2-6	3-10
San Diego St. to Win MWC Championship Game

Coming tomorrow: The Sun Belt Conference had always been the lowest rated league each preseason since its inception, but we thought that had changed this year.  Not only did we believe that the SBC moved out of the basement, they climbed up to second best Group of 5 conference.  At first, we believed it was due to a trio of exceptionally strong teams, but then we realized what happened.  It was our mistake.  We forgot to divide the total rating by 12 and divided by 11.  Coastal Carolina joined the league as a full member, and our people did not change the formula until it was too late to change the order of the previews.  We apologize for the error.

 

To make up for this, here is a fun, two-part trivia question for you.  The answers will come in the following previews.

A. Name the four pairs of FBS football schools that play their home games in stadiums less than 10 miles apart.

B. Name the three pairs of FBS football schools  that play their home games in stadiums less than 15 miles apart and are also conference rivals.

Remember, these are FBS schools only.  One hint–there will be one fewer pair that qualify after this season.

2017 Mid-American Conference Preview

Today, the PiRate Ratings kicks off its annual college football conference previews with the Mid-American Conference.  Last year, the MAC was a sneaky little league.  Very few so-called experts picked this league to produce the automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl participant, but when Western Michigan ran the table in the regular season, and then the Broncos beat Ohio in the MAC title game, it was WMU that ventured down to Jerry World to play in the Cotton Bowl.

There is a slight chance that this league could produce the special Group of 5 team again this season, but we won’t expect it this time around.  Not only is there no overpowering team in this league. the schedule for the best team just won’t allow for an undefeated season and most likely not a one-loss season.

2017 looks to be the year where college football begins to look more and more like the NFL, and the teams with experienced and talented quarterbacks, quick receivers, quick defensive backs, and above-average linemen in that order will dominate the land.  It is certainly true in this league, where the top two QBs belong to the two teams we are picking to win the divisional races–Logan Woodside at Toledo and Gus Ragland at Miami of Ohio.

Because the Poinsettia Bowl went bust, there is one less bowl game this season.  The MAC figures to be the league that suffers the most from this cancellation.  We believe there will be two bowl eligible teams in the league that do not receive bowl bids.  At least, we do not foresee a 5-7 team having to fill in as an at-large, at least until another bowl replaces the defunct Poinsettia.  There could be one set for Wrigley Field in Chicago in the future, and that most assuredly would be good news for this league.

Here is how the MAC Media picked the teams to finish the season.

MAC East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Ohio U	11	131	0
2	Miami (O)	12	129	1
3	Bowling Green	1	88	1
4	Akron	0	79	0
5	Buffalo	0	41	0
6	Kent St.	0	36	0
MAC West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Toledo	22	142	21
2	Western Michigan	1	107	1
3	Northern Illinois	1	89	0
4	Eastern Michigan	0	74	0
5	Central Michigan	0	62	0
6	Ball St.	0	30	0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings differ slightly, but not all that much.  Remember that the PiRate Ratings are really only predictive for the next week’s schedule, and they cannot be used to look forward past that week.  Because, we set certain factors into each teams’ future to account for depth or lack thereof, these ratings can change even if a team wins by the exact amount predicted.

Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings for the pre-season

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (O)	94.3	96.6	96.8	95.9
Ohio U	90.3	92.0	91.2	91.2
Akron	84.3	88.5	84.5	85.8
Kent St.	83.7	85.3	84.9	84.6
Bowling Green	82.4	82.6	83.7	82.9
Buffalo	79.7	83.7	81.6	81.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	102.1	98.4	103.8	101.4
Toledo	99.3	99.1	100.9	99.8
Eastern Michigan	93.5	93.1	93.6	93.4
Central Michigan	90.4	90.6	90.8	90.6
Northern Illinois	85.7	85.8	85.9	85.8
Ball St.	78.2	80.5	79.7	79.5
MAC Averages	88.7	89.7	89.8	89.4

This is our not so scientific attempt to predict the won-loss records and bowl projections.  As we stated above, our ratings do not look past the next week’s schedule.

Mid-American Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
Miami (O)	6-2	9-4	Camellia
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	Idaho Potato
Akron	4-4	5-7
Kent St.	2-6	3-9
Bowling Green	2-6	3-9
Buffalo	2-6	3-9
West Division
Toledo	8-0	11-2	Bahamas
Western Michigan	6-2	8-4	Dollar General
Eastern Michigan	5-3	6-6	eligible
Central Michigan	5-3	6-6	eligible
Northern Illinois	2-6	4-8
Ball St.	1-7	3-9
Toledo to win MAC Title Game

Coming tomorrow–Conference USA

 

 

 

 

 

2017 College Football Season Previews Premiere Tuesday, August 15

Ahoy, Mateys!  Come aboard the PiRate Ship for the 2017-18 College Football Season.  The PiRates have set sail for the season, and we hope we sail on smooth waters all year.

Beginning, Tuesday, August 15, 2017, in the afternoon in the Eastern Daylight Time Zone (after 18 Hours GMT), we will commence with the first of our conference previews for the season, previewing one new conference per day.  As usual, we will begin with the lowest rated conference and continue until we conclude the previews with the top-rated conference.  You may or may not be surprised this year, but there are some changes in the lower end and the upper end of the conference ratings.  For the first time since its inception, the Sun Belt Conference does not tally the lowest overall score.  This year, that dubious distinction befalls Conference USA, and it is CUSA that will be our first preview. EDIT: Our Apologies to CUSA.  It is the Mid-American Conference that came up with the lowest league average, so look for the MAC Preview on Tuesday.

Here is a proposed schedule for our website for the 2017-18 sports season 

Tuesdays: Updated Retrodictive and Predictive Ratings & Spreads for the upcoming College Week

Wednesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the upcoming NFL Week.

Thursdays: Our infamous Money Line Parlay Selections (JUST FOR FUN).

Fridays: Tentatively, we are hoping to bring back our historic Pro Football Simulations this season.  We are looking at simulating an NFL Season using the best teams for 14 franchises between 1950 and 1975.  The 14 NFL teams in existence in 1965 will be used, and we will use the rules from that season, culminating with the NFL Championship Game (and maybe the Playoff Bowl).

Check back Tuesday afternoon (EDT) for the first preview of the PiRate Season.

As usual, our ratings will be part of the Prediction Tracker and the Massey Football Ranking Composite

http://thepredictiontracker.com/

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

The PiRate Ratings Are Hard At Work

Welcome back gridiron fans.  The PiRates are back at sea working hard on getting their treasure for the 2017-18 season.

There will be a few tweaks to the formulas this season as we refine our ratings to make them as accurate as possible, and we are excited about it.

Tweak #1: Our first tweak involves increasing the alteration of each college football teams’ rate of adjustment as it applies to depth concerns.  If a team is stacked two-deep with talent, they should be able to endure a long, hard season.  But, if the team is only good in their starting lineup, and they lack the depth, they will weaken as the season goes on.  Consider two teams, State and Tech.  State and Tech are about equal in talent in their starting lineups, and on August 25, they are exactly the same in power rating.  For the sake of argument, let’s say they both look like 9-3 teams in a power 5 conference and have identical ratings of 118.0.

In the month of September, State and Tech both go 4-0 over similar competition, and their statistics show that they are still basically the same in talent and results.  Both teams ratings go up, but State’s go up a tad more than Tech’s, due to the depth issue.  Through four games, it won’t be all that much, and now on the First Monday in October, State is now 122.5, and Tech is 121.8.

In October, State and Tech both go 3-1 to sit at 7-1 with four games to go.  Both teams have lost some key players by now, but State has plugged in able second-teamers to fill the spots, while Tech has been forced to go with talent not up to Power 5 conference standards.  State’s wins have been a little easier, and their loss was much closer than Tech’s wins and loss.  Now, State has a rating of 123.1, while Tech has fallen a bit to 119.5.

In November, State finishes strong, going 3-1 to finish the regular season at 10-2.  Tech falters going 1-3 to finish 8-4.

We see this every year.  We believe we can factor in this depth issue into our ratings before the season begins, and we can adjust the rate of adjustment during the season as a team sees key players leave the lineup.  It also works in reverse; a team may have a blessing of several new underclassmen beginning to contribute.

Look at Georgia in 1980.  Hershel Walker was a true freshman.  In the second half of the season opener against Tennessee, Coach Vince Dooley inserted Walker into the game with the Bulldogs trailing by double-digits, and Walker turned the game around in his first 10 carries.  Georgia won the game, and Walker led the Bulldogs to an undefeated National Championship.  Had this new twist of our ratings been in effect then, The Bulldogs might have improved by an unprecedented 10 points between game one and game two.  As it was then, it took several weeks until Georgia’s rating really reflected their power, all because of one freshman.

This can just as easily happen to an average team that loses a couple of key players.  There have been instances when a team has lost a dozen key players by the end of October.  If it is Alabama, the Crimson Tide might be five points weaker than they would have been with the dozen players still healthy.  But, if it is Iowa State, the Cyclones might be 15 points weaker with the loss of these dozen players.

Going back to the unexpected bonanza, what if a team has five or six redshirt freshmen that have displaced upperclassmen in the starting lineup?  Obviously, this team must now be better talent-wise if starters have been replaced  (unless the coach has thrown in the towel on the season and is looking to the future).  What started as a so-so season may continue as a better season because the surprising advancement of the freshmen has made this team a touchdown better than it was earlier in the season.

The PiRate Ratings will adjust for this during the season by increasing or decreasing the adjustment rate of the teams after each Saturday.  Because the PiRate Ratings always show a total average of 100.0, that means teams might lose ground in the ratings after a good game, because other teams now earn more bonus for their play on the field.  It will be a work in progress, but in the end, we believe it will lead to more accurate ratings.

 

Tweak #2: Our basketball ratings have always been Four Factors-based.  We have three different algorithms using the Four Factors Data.  Football also has its factors.  In fact, in football, there are five factors.  They are, in order of importance: Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers.   You can find excellent content online about these factors–some explain in detail like a thesis, while others give you a quick outline.

For our purposes, we have changed how we use the box scores of the games in our updating formula.  We will look more at Explosiveness and Efficiency when we update the teams’ ratings every week.  Additionally, we will keep an unpublished running score on how consistent teams are in being able to move the ball and stop the movement of the other team.  Which leads us to our big breakthrough for 2017-18.

Big Breakthrough

Have you ever noticed that over the course of an era, a team may celebrate a national championship or conference championship when they appear to not be as good as prior teams or soon see future teams that look better but do not win the championship?  You have probably seen that a really good team goes 10-2 or 11-1 and demolishes most of their opponents but suffered a terrible upset.  Then, that team runs the table but wins most of their games by nice amounts but by no means blowouts.

Think of a team that wins 55-17 and 38-10 or something similar for most of the season and then falls 31-27 to a mediocre team.  This team leads the nation in total offense or scoring defense, but they always fall a game short of the accomplishment.  But, then along comes a season where this school wins 31-20, 27-14 or something similar and runs the table.  They finish well down in total offense and near the top in scoring defense, but they go undefeated.

We have seen this happen multiple times in the last 30 years.  The dominating team is not as consistent as the team that went undefeated, and in three out of 10 games, the less consistent power may be two touchdowns better than the undefeated champion.  However, 70% of the time, the undefeated champion will be better than the dominating team.

The PiRates have tried to assign value or lack of value to the consistency of a team, but this is something that takes a good sampling of games.  This adjustment will be used in November after all teams have played 2/3 of their regular season schedule.  By then, we should have a grasp of what teams are staying consistent, and what teams are all over the map.  We will not adjust their ratings, because you never know if your inconsistent team will deviate 14 points above their rating or 14 points below.  What we will do is search for consistency when we select our Money Line plays.  We might be crazy, because we are coming off two consecutive profitable Money Line seasons (just for fun and not real wagering), so we might be cutting off our noses to spite our faces.

Enjoy your summer.  Football season will be here before you know it.  The PiRates are actually ahead of schedule this year with their college football updates, and we should have enough time to expand our preseason coverage this year.