The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Saturday, March 23, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:57 am

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

LSU

114.6

0.0

Maryland

113.0

1.6

Kentucky

118.5

0.0

Wofford

113.9

4.6

Michigan

119.0

0.0

Florida

111.9

7.1

Florida St.

115.2

0.0

Murray St.

110.4

4.8

Gonzaga

123.1

0.0

Baylor

110.5

12.6

Michigan St.

120.9

0.0

Minnesota

110.2

10.7

Purdue

117.1

0.0

Villanova

111.8

5.3

Kansas

115.3

0.0

Auburn

115.7

-0.4

Saturday’s Schedule

TIME (ET)

GAME

TV

SITE

12:10 p.m.

(6) Maryland vs. (3) LSU

CBS

Jacksonville

Approx. 2:55 p.m.

(7) Wofford vs. (2) Kentucky

CBS

Jacksonville

5:15 p.m.

(10) Florida vs. (2) Michigan

CBS

Des Moines

6:10 p.m.

(12) Murray St. vs. (4) Florida St.

TNT

Hartford

7:10 p.m.

(9) Baylor vs. (1) Gonzaga

TBS

Salt Lake City

Approx. 8:00 p.m.

(10) Minnesota vs. (2) Michigan St.

CBS

Des Moines

Approx 8:55 p.m.

(6) Villanova vs. (3) Pudue

TNT

Hartford

Approx 9:55 p.m.

(5) Auburn vs. (4) Kansas

TBS

Salt Lake City

 

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March 13, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Thursday, March 14, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:08 pm

Thursday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Akron

103.5

1.0

Buffalo

113.6

-9.1

Arizona St.

108.4

0.0

UCLA

104.9

3.5

Auburn

115.7

0.0

Missouri

106.1

9.6

Baylor

110.6

0.0

Iowa St.

114.1

-3.5

Bowling Green

103.0

0.0

Ball St.

102.8

0.2

Cal St. Fullerton

98.9

0.0

UC Davis

95.6

3.3

Duke

123.2

1.0

Syracuse

111.3

12.9

Duquesne

100.1

0.0

Saint Joseph’s

99.4

0.7

Eastern Washington

95.5

0.0

Montana St.

95.2

0.3

Florida

111.7

0.0

Arkansas

108.7

3.0

Florida St.

114.7

0.0

Virginia Tech

116.5

-1.8

Fresno St.

107.5

0.0

Air Force

94.8

12.7

George Mason

101.4

0.0

George Washington

93.3

8.1

Grand Canyon

104.7

0.0

Seattle

98.6

6.1

Howard

91.4

0.0

Bethune-Cookman

92.5

-1.1

Illinois

106.2

1.5

Iowa

110.9

-3.2

Kansas

114.9

1.5

Texas

112.0

4.4

Kansas St.

113.2

1.0

TCU

110.0

4.2

Kent St.

101.5

0.0

Central Michigan

101.9

-0.4

Long Beach St.

96.9

2.0

Hawaii

98.4

0.5

Louisiana

99.7

1.0

South Alabama

97.4

3.3

Louisiana Monroe

101.3

1.0

Coastal Carolina

100.7

1.6

Maryland

113.4

0.0

Nebraska

110.5

2.9

Memphis

106.8

3.0

Tulane

92.9

16.9

Minnesota

109.3

0.0

Penn St.

110.2

-0.9

Mississippi St.

113.4

0.0

Texas A&M

105.4

8.0

Montana

102.8

0.0

Sacramento St.

94.2

8.6

Nevada

115.0

1.0

Boise St.

102.6

13.4

New Mexico St.

107.7

0.0

Chicago St.

79.3

28.4

New Orleans

94

0.0

Lamar

98.0

-4.0

North Carolina

121.0

1.0

Louisville

114.0

8.0

North Carolina Central

92.8

0.0

Delaware St.

79.5

13.3

North Texas

100.9

1.5

Western Kentucky

103.1

-0.7

Northern Colorado

100.4

0.0

Southern Utah

93.0

7.4

Ohio St.

110.3

0.0

Indiana

110.6

-0.3

Old Dominion

103.8

0.0

Louisiana Tech

101.8

2.0

Ole Miss

110.1

0.0

Alabama

108.0

2.1

Oregon St.

106.2

0.0

Colorado

107.0

-0.8

Rhode Island

102.4

0.0

La Salle

97.2

5.2

Saint Louis

103.3

0.0

Richmond

99.0

4.3

Seton Hall

108.4

0.0

Georgetown

106.3

2.1

South Florida

103.2

0.0

Connecticut

105.2

-2.0

Southeastern Louisiana

94.7

0.0

Central Arkansas

91.6

3.1

Southern Miss.

103.4

0.0

Marshall

99.7

3.7

St. John’s

107.8

1.5

Marquette

112.6

-3.3

Texas Tech

118.3

0.0

West Virginia

104.9

13.4

Toledo

107.9

0.0

Northern Illinois

101.1

6.8

Tulsa

103.2

0.0

SMU

104.2

-1.0

UC Irvine

105.5

0.0

UC Riverside

91.6

13.9

UC Santa Barbara

101.0

0.0

Cal St. Northridge

93.7

7.3

UNLV

101.1

2.5

San Diego St.

103.8

-0.2

UT Rio Grande Valley

97.6

0.0

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.7

0.9

Utah

104.2

0.0

Oregon

109.3

-5.1

Utah St.

110.0

0.0

New Mexico

99.3

10.7

Utah Valley

104.0

0.0

Missouri Kansas City

95.0

9.0

UTSA

99.8

0.0

UAB

100.1

-0.3

Villanova

113.3

0.0

Providence

106.7

6.6

Virginia

123.3

0.0

North Carolina St.

112.9

10.4

Washington

105.5

0.0

USC

105.7

-0.2

Weber St.

98.5

0.0

Portland St.

94.7

3.8

Wichita St.

104.8

0.0

East Carolina

93.7

11.1

Xavier

107.2

0.0

Creighton

110.0

-2.8

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

First Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

South Florida (19-12)

9

Connecticut (15-16)

5

Memphis (19-12)

12

Tulane (4-26)

7

Tulsa (18-13)

10

SMU (14-16)

6

Wichita St. (17-13)

11

East Carolina (10-20)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

George Washington

68

Massachusetts

64 ot

Richmond

52

Fordham

50

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Rhode Island (16-14)

9

La Salle (10-20)

5

George Mason (17-14)

12

George Washington (9-23)

7

Duquesne (19-12)

10

Saint Joseph’s (13-18)

6

Saint Louis (19-12)

11

Richmond (13-19)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Second Round–Wednesday, March 13

North Carolina St.

59

Clemson

58

Virginia Tech

71

Miami (Fla)

56

Louisville

75

Notre Dame

53

Syracuse

73

Pittsburgh

59

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia (28-2)

8

North Carolina St. (22-10)

4

Florida St. (25-6)

5

Virginia Tech (24-7)

2

North Carolina (26-5)

7

Louisville (20-12)

3

Duke (26-5)

6

Syracuse (20-12)

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

TCU

73

Oklahoma St.

70

West Virginia

72

Oklahoma

71

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Kansas St. (24-7)

8

TCU (20-12)

4

Baylor (19-12)

5

Iowa St. (20-11)

2

Texas Tech (26-5)

10

West Virginia (13-19)

3

Kansas (23-8)

6

Texas (16-15)

 

 

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Providence

80

Butler

57

St. John’s

82

DePaul

74

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (22-9)

8

Providence (18-14)

4

Xavier (16-14)

5

Creighton (18-13)

2

Marquette (23-8)

7

St. John’s (21-11)

3

Seton Hall (18-12)

6

Georgetown (19-12)

 

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Sacramento St.

72

Northern Arizona

60

Southern Utah

94

Idaho St.

80

Montana St.

75

Idaho

71

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (23-8)

9

Sacramento St. (15-15)

4

Weber St. (17-14)

5

Portland St. (16-15)

2

Northern Colorado (21-10)

7

Southern Utah (15-15)

3

Eastern Washington (14-17)

6

Montana St. (15-16)

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Nebraska

68

Rutgers

61

Illinois

74

Northwestern

69 ot

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Ohio St. (18-13)

9

Indiana (17-14)

5

Maryland (22-9)

13

Nebraska (17-15)

7

Minnesota (19-12)

10

Penn St. (14-17)

6

Iowa (21-10)

11

Illinois (12-20)

 

 

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (27-5)

8

Cal St. Riverside (10-22)

4

Hawaii (18-12)

5

Long Beach St. (14-18)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (14-16)

6

UC Davis (11-19)

2

UC Santa Barbara (21-9)

7

Cal St. Northridge (13-19)

 

 

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Louisiana Tech

57

Florida Atlantic

56

UAB

70

Middle Tennessee

61

North Texas

71

Florida Int’l.

57

Marshall

82

Rice

65

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (23-8)

8

Louisiana Tech (20-12)

4

UTSA (17-14)

5

UAB (19-13)

2

Western Kentucky (18-13)

10

North Texas (21-11)

3

Southern Miss. (19-11)

6

Marshall (19-13)

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (28-3)

8/9

Akron/Miami (O)

4

Kent St. (22-9)

5

Central Michigan (22-10)

2

Toledo (25-6)

7

Northern Illinois (16-16)

3

Bowling Green (20-11)

11

Ball St. (16-16)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 13

North Carolina A&T

82

Coppin St.

79 ot

Norfolk St.

78

South Carolina St.

73

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

North Carolina Central (15-15)

11

Delaware St. (6-24)

Howard (16-15)

5

Bethune-Cookman (14-16)

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Boise St.

66

Colorado St.

57

New Mexico

78

Wyoming

68

Air Force

87

San Jose St.

56

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Nevada (28-3)

9

Boise St. (13-19)

4

San Diego St. (19-11)

5

UNLV (17-13)

2

Utah St. (25-6)

7

New Mexico (14-17)

3

Fresno St. (21-8)

6

Air Force (14-17)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

USC

78

Arizona

65

Colorado

56

California

51

UCLA

79

Stanford

72

Oregon

84

Washington St.

51

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (24-7)

8

USC (16-16)

4

Oregon St. (18-12)

5

Colorado (20-11)

2

Arizona St. (21-9)

7

UCLA (17-15)

3

Utah (17-13)

6

Oregon (20-12)

 

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13

Colgate

94

Bucknell

80

Champion: Colgate (24-10)

 

 

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Lamar

81

Houston Baptist

79

Central Arkansas

73

Texas A&M CC

53

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

New Orleans (17-12)

5

Lamar (20-12)

3

Southeastern Louisiana (16-15)

7

Central Arkansas (14-18)

 

 

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Missouri

71

Georgia

61

Texas A&M

69

Vanderbilt

52

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Florida (17-14)

9

Arkansas (17-14)

5

Auburn (22-9)

12

Missouri (15-16)

7

Ole Miss (20-11)

10

Alabama (17-14)

6

Mississippi St. (22-9)

11

Texas A&M (14-17)

 

Sun Belt Conference

Site:  Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

6

Coastal Carolina (15-15)

7

Louisiana Monroe (17-14)

5

Louisiana (19-12)

8

South Alabama (16-16)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (27-4)

8

Chicago St. (3-28)

4

UT Rio Grande Valley (18-15)

5

Cal St. Bakersfield (16-14)

3

Grand Canyon (18-12)

6

Seattle (18-13)

2

Utah Valley (23-8)

7

Missouri Kansas City (11-20)

 

 

Automatic Bids To The NCAA Tournament

Team

Conf

W-L

Liberty

Atlantic Sun

28-6

Gardner-Webb

Big South

23-11

Murray St.

Ohio Valley

27-4

Bradley

Missouri Valley

20-14

Wofford

Southern

29-4

Iona

Metro Atlantic

17-15

Fairleigh-Dickinson

Northeast

20-13

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

26-8

Northeastern

Colonial

23-10

Saint Mary’s

West Coast

22-11

North Dakota St.

Summit

18-15

Colgate

Patriot

24-10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 3, 2019

Games Scheduled for:

Sunday

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Charlotte

91.7

2.5

UTEP

93.3

0.9

Connecticut

105.5

3.0

South Florida

103.4

5.1

DePaul

103.9

2.5

St. John’s

108.6

-2.2

Florida Int’l.

96.9

2.5

Louisiana Tech

101.7

-2.3

Georgia Tech

103.9

3.0

Boston College

104.8

2.1

Illinois

106.9

2.0

Northwestern

106.7

2.2

Louisiana

100.0

2.5

Appalachian St.

97.7

4.8

Louisville

113.5

3.0

Notre Dame

105.9

10.6

Marist

95.5

2.5

Rider

98.6

-0.6

Marquette

113.5

3.0

Creighton

109.5

7.0

Maryland

113.4

3.0

Michgan

117.8

-1.4

Niagara

92.2

2.5

Siena

95.3

-0.6

North Texas

101.6

3.0

Marshall

98.7

5.9

Oregon St.

106.2

3.0

Arizona St.

108.0

1.2

Quinnipiac

96.9

2.5

Manhattan

90.5

8.9

Rice

94.4

2.5

Middle Tennessee

94.9

2.0

Saint Peter’s

92.1

2.0

Fairfield

93.4

0.7

SMU

104.3

3.0

Wichita St.

104.3

3.0

Stanford

104.5

2.5

Washington

110.2

-3.2

Temple

106.8

3.0

Tulane

92.3

17.5

Tulsa

103.0

3.0

East Carolina

93.6

12.4

UTSA

100.1

2.5

UAB

99.7

2.9

Western Kentucky

103.3

3.0

Southern Miss.

102.2

4.1

 

Updated Conference Tournament Brackets

The Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament commences Monday night with four quarterfinal games.  In all, 11 conference brackets are now set and will begin play in the next week.  Here in order by the date these tournaments begin, are the 11 brackets.

Atlantic Sun Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Monday, March 4

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Lipscomb (23-6)

8

Kennesaw St. (6-25)

2

Liberty (25-6)

7

Jacksonville (12-19)

3

North Florida (15-16)

6

North Alabama (10-21)

4

Florida Gulf Coast (14-17)

5

NJIT (20-11)

Semifinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8

Higher Seed

4/5

Lower Seed

2/7

Higher Seed

3/6

Lower Seed

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8/4/5

Higher Seed

2/3/6/7

Lower Seed

 

Big South Conference

Site: Home and #1 Seed

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

Presbyterian (17-14)

10

UNC-Asheville (4-26)

6

Charleston Southern (15-14)

11

USC Upstate (6-25)

8

Hampton (14-15)

9

Longwood (15-16)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7 (at Campbell)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Radford (20-10)

7/10

Presbyterian/UNC-Asheville

3

Winthrop (18-11)

6/11

Chas Sou./USC Upstate

1

Campbell (19-11)

8/9

Hampton/Longwood

4

Gardner-Webb (20-11)

5

High Point (16-14)

Semifinals–Thursday, March 8 (at Campbell)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

2/7/10

3/6/11

1/8/9

4/5

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Higher Seeded Team)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Site: Higher Seed and Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 & Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1

Wright St. (19-12)

8

IUPUI (16-15)

4

Green Bay (16-15)

5

Illinois-Chicago (16-15)

3

Oakland (15-16)

6

Youngstown St. (12-19)

2

Northern Kentucky (23-8)

7

Detroit (11-19)

Semifinals–Friday, March 15 (Detroit for last two rounds)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8

Wright St./IUPUI

4/5

Green Bay/Illinois-Chi.

2/7

N Kentucky/Detroit

3/6

Oakland/Youngstown St.

Championship Game–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

First Round–Tuesday, March 5

Seed

Home

Visitors

8

Boston U (14-17)

9

Loyola (MD) (11-20)

7

Lafayette (10-19)

10

Holy Cross (15-16)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Colgate (21-10)

8/9

Boston/Loyola (MD)

2

Bucknell (19-10)

7/10

Lafayette/Holy Cross

3

Lehigh (19-10)

6

Army (13-18)

4

American (15-14)

5

Navy (11-18)

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8/9

Higher Seed

4/5

Lower Seed

2/7/10

Higher Seed

3/6

Lower Seed

Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Higher Semifinal Winner

Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

St. Francis (PA) (16-13)

8

Bryant (10-19)

2

Fairleigh-Dickinson (17-13)

7

Wagner (13-16)

3

Sacred Heart (15-16)

6

Long Island (15-15)

4

Robert Morris (16-15)

5

St. Francis (Bklyn) (17-14)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Highest Remaining Seed

Lowest Remaining Seed

2nd Highest Remaining Seed

3rd Highest Remaining Seed

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Higher Semifinal Winner

Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

First Round–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Morehead St. (12-19)

8

SIU Edwardsville (10-20)

6

Eastern Illinois (14-17)

7

UT-Martin (11-18)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

Austin Peay (21-10)

5/8

Morehead/SIU-Edwardsville

3

Jacksonville St. (23-8)

6/7

E. Illinois/UT-Martin

Semifinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Belmont (25-4)

4/5/8

APSU/Mhead/SIUE

2

Murray St. (25-4)

3/6/7

JvilleSt/EIU/UTM

Championship Game–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)

Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Indiana St. (15-15)

9

Valparaiso (14-17)

7

Illinois St. (16-15)

10

Evansville (11-20)

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Loyola (Chi) (19-12)

8/9

Ind St./Valpo

4

Missouri St. (16-15)

5

Bradley (17-14)

2

Drake (23-8)

7/10

Ill St./Evansville

3

Southern Illinois (17-14)

6

Northern Iowa (14-17)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Loyola/Ind St./Valpo

4/5

MSU/Bradley

2/7/10

Drake/Ill St/Evans

3/6

SIU/UNI

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

West Coast Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

San Diego (18-13)

10

Portland (7-24)

8

Pepperdine (13-17)

9

Pacific (14-17)

Second Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

6

Santa Clara (16-14)

7/10

USD/Portland

5

Loyola Marymount (20-10)

8/9

Pepper/Pacific

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

BYU (19-12)

6/7/10

SCU/USD/Portland

4

San Francisco (21-9)

5/8/9

LMU/Pepper/Pacific

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Saint Mary’s (20-11)

3/6/7/10

BYU/SCU/USD/Portland

1

Gonzaga (29-2)

4/5/8/9

USF/LMU/Pepper/Pacific

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Southern Conference

Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC

First Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

VMI (10-20)

9

Western Carolina (7-24)

7

Samford (16-15)

10

The Citadel (12-17)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Wofford (26-4)

8/9

VMI/Western Carolina

4

East Tennessee St. (23-8)

5

Chattanooga (12-19)

2

UNC Greensboro (26-5)

7/10

Samford/Citadel

3

Furman (24-6)

6

Mercer (11-19)

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Woff/VMI/WCU

4/5

ETSU/Chatt

2/7/10

UNCG/Sam/Cit

3/6

Furman/Mercer

Championship Game–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC

First Round–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

James Madison (13-18)

9

Towson (10-21)

7

Elon (11-20)

10

UNC Wilmington (9-22)

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Hofstra (25-6)

8/9

JMU/Towson

4

William & Mary (14-16)

5

Delaware (16-15)

2

Northeastern (20-10)

7/10

Elon/UNCW

3

Charleston (23-8)

6

Drexel (13-18)

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Hofstra/JMU/Towson

4/5

Wm&Mary/Delaware

2/7/10

NEastern/Elon/UNCW

3/6

Charleston/Drexel

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Summit League

Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9 & Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1 (sat)

South Dakota St. (24-7)

8

Western Illinois (9-20)

4 (sun)

Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)

5

South Dakota (13-16)

3 (sun)

North Dakota St. (15-15)

6

Oral Roberts (11-20)

2 (sat)

Omaha (19-10)

7

North Dakota (12-17)

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8

SDSU/WIU

4/5

PFW/USD

2/7

Omaha/UND

3/6

NDSUORU

Championship Game–Tuesday, March12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 1, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 1, 2018

Conference Tournament Action From Last Night

Big Ten Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Iowa 96 Illinois 87
Rutgers 65 Minnesota 54

Updated Big Ten Bracket

Second Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 Maryland #9 Wisconsin Big Ten
2:15 PM #5 Michigan Iowa Big Ten
6:30 PM #7 Penn St. #10 Northwestern Big Ten
8:45 PM #6 Indiana Rutgers Big Ten
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Michigan St. Mary or Wisc Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 Nebraska Michigan or Iowa Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 Ohio St. PSU or N’Western Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 Purdue Indiana or Rutgers Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM MSU/Mary/Wisc Neb/Mich/Iowa CBS
4:30 PM OSU/Purd/NW Purd/Ind/Rutg CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Wagner 73 Central Connecticut 61
Robert Morris 60 Mount St. Mary’s 56
Fairleigh-Dickinson 84 St. Francis (Pa) 75
Long Island 73 St. Francis (Bkn) 50

Updated Northeast Conference Bracket

Semifinals–March 3
Time Home Team Visitors TV
12:00 PM #1 Wagner #7 Robert Morris ESPN3
2:00 PM #4 Long Island #6 Fairleigh-Dickinson ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN2

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Tennessee Tech 60 SIU-Edwardsville 51
Eastern Illinois 73 Tennessee St. 71

Updated Ohio Valley Conference Bracket

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 Jacksonville St. Tennessee Tech OVC
9:00 PM #3 Austin Peay Eastern Illinois OVC
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Murray St. Jax. St. or Tenn Tech ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Belmont APSU or E. Illinois ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #3 Jacksonville ESPN3

 

Big South Conference Tournament
Championship Game at Higher Seed
Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed UNC-Asheville
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #2 Radford #10 Longwood ESPN3
3:30 PM #3 Winthrop #6 Gardner-Webb ESPN3
7:00 PM #1 UNC-Asheville #8 Charleston Southern ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Campbell #5 Liberty ESPN3

 

Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Bucknell #8 Loyola (MD) Stadium
7:00 PM #4 Lehigh #5 Boston U Stadium
7:00 PM #2 Colgate #7 Lafayette Stadium
7:00 PM #3 Navy #6 Holy Cross Stadium

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 Monmouth #9 St. Peter’s ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 Quinnipiac #10 Siena ESPN3
10:00 PM #6 Fairfield #11 Marist ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Rider Monmouth or St. Peter’s ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 Canisius Quinn. or Siena ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #3 Niagara Fair. or Marist ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Iona #5 Manhattan ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Rider/Monm/St. P Iona or Manhattan ESPN3
9:30 PM Can/Quinn/Siena Niag/Fair/Marist ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

While Rider and Canisius tied for the regular season conference championship, there are two other teams to watch closely in this tournament.  Iona has the best offense in the league, and in a tournament, sometimes the team that plays loose and can fill it up from outside will get a large lead against the other team that begins tight and cannot hit their perimeter shots.  Iona is the two-time defending tournament champion, and until the Gaels lose, they are our favorite to win it again, even as the four-seed.

The other team to watch from back of the pack is Fairfield, the hottest team in the league entering the tournament.  The Stags match up quite well with Niagara, who they would face in the quarterfinal round if they win tonight.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 Evansville #9 Northern Iowa ESPN3
8:30 PM #7 Missouri St. #10 Valparaiso ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Loyola (Chi.) Evansville or UNI ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Drake #5 Bradley ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 Southern Illinois MSU or Valpo ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Illinois St. #6 Indiana St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM Loyola/Evans/UNI Drake or Bradley CBSSN
5:00 PM SIU/MSU/Valpo Ill St. or Ind St. CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

Without Wichita State playing bully on the rest of the league, it was thought that the Valley would be a wide open race this year with a host of teams competing for the regular season and tournament championships.  However, Loyola (Chi.), with five players averaging double figure scoring, has been nearly unstoppable in conference play this year.  The Ramblers have only been to a single NCAA Tournament since their heydays of the 1960’s,   Loyola enters Arch Madness on a 14 for 15 winning streak.

If any other team wins this tournament, it will be a major upset and will produce a 15-seed or worse.  Loyola could be a 13-seed as the Tournament Champions.

There is one team from way back in the pack that has the potential to sneak into the semifinals.  Northern Iowa is the number 9 seed.  If they beat Evansville tonight, they might be the team that can match up best with Loyola, who they would face tomorrow.  If they were to eliminate the Goliath, then there isn’t another team in the field any better than the Panthers.

 

February 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for February 23-25, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:36 am

Note: In case you haven’t heard, Yahoo Sports has released information concerning the FBI’s probe of college basketball, naming names and teams.  Go to Yahoo Sports to read the article.

The article casts a shadow over the impending March Madness and whether players and even teams may be declared ineligible or run the risk of having the entire Final Four vacated if four implicated teams make the semifinals.

Until there is definite news on who will and will not be allowed to participate in the NCAA Tournament, the PiRate Ratings will continue to rate the teams as if nothing has affected the tournament.  Our Bracket Gurus report that runs on Monday afternoons will continue to include all teams that are eligible of this moment.  Our ratings will remain the same until players are removed from rosters.

 

In the PiRate Rating’s world, we have made a bit of a change this week.  The Mountain West Conference has reverted back to a one bid league for now as Boise State has fallen back in the Bubble race.  At the same time, St. Bonaventure has now moved into the projected field, giving the Atlantic 10 Conference multiple projected bids.  Thus, we have added the A-10 to our ratings list of power conferences and removed the MWC and returned it to mid-major.

We have retained Nevada and Boise State in the ratings of top mid-majors.

Also note that the first postseason conference tournament bracket has been decided.  The Atlantic Sun Conference begins tournament action Monday night, and you can see the bracket for this game at the conclusion of the spreads and ratings.

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads for Power Conferences and top Mid-Majors

Friday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Rhode Island Dayton 13.8
Indiana Ohio St. 3.0
Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
South Florida Tulane -6.5
SMU Wichita St. -3.7
VCU St. Bonaventure -2.6
Duquesne Davidson -7.1
Fordham LaSalle -3.8
George Mason Massachusetts 2.0
Richmond St. Joseph’s -0.3
St. Louis George Washington 6.8
Virginia Tech Louisville 3.8
Miami (Fla.) Boston College 8.8
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.2
Wake Forest Notre Dame -2.8
Pittsburgh Virginia -21.1
Duke Syracuse 15.8
TCU Baylor 4.8
Texas Oklahoma St. 6.3
Texas Tech Kansas 2.1
West Virginia Iowa St. 14.9
Oklahoma Kansas St. 4.9
DePaul Marquette -3.2
Georgetown Providence 1.2
St. John’s Seton Hall -1.4
Creighton Villanova -6.0
Maryland Michigan 1.7
Utah USC 1.9
California Washington -5.2
Stanford Washington St. 10.6
Oregon St. Arizona St. -4.2
Oregon Arizona -1.5
Ole Miss Tennessee -5.8
Georgia LSU 2.2
Mississippi St. South Carolina 6.4
Vanderbilt Texas A&M -1.9
Alabama Arkansas 2.4
Kentucky Missouri 5.3
Florida Auburn 0.1
Loyola Marymount Pacific -1.4
Saint Mary’s Santa Clara 21.6
BYU Gonzaga -5.0
Pepperdine Portland 1.1
San Francisco San Diego 2.3
Austin Peay Murray St. -6.0
Buffalo Ohio 11.3
East Tennessee St. Wofford 9.3
Loyola (Chi.) Illinois St. 11.7
Middle Tennessee UAB 9.6
New Mexico St. UMKC 17.0
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette -9.6
Stony Brook Vermont -9.5
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Cincinnati Tulsa 19.1
Temple Central Florida 4.7
Houston East Carolina 23.8
Connecticut Memphis 2.0
North Carolina St. Florida St. 0.5
Wisconsin Michigan St. -9.5
Rutgers Illinois -0.1
Purdue Minnesota 18.5
Nebraska Penn St. -0.2
Iowa Northwestern 1.6
Nevada Colorado St. 20.6
Colorado UCLA -3.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Villanova 121.7 BIGE
2 Duke 120.5 ACC
3 Purdue 119.6 BTEN
4 Virginia 119.4 ACC
5 Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
6 Cincinnati 118.0 AAC
7 North Carolina 116.7 ACC
8 Kansas 116.7 B12
9 West Virginia 115.8 B12
10 Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
11 Texas Tech 115.3 B12
12 Xavier 115.1 BIGE
13 Auburn 115.1 SEC
14 Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
15 Tennessee 113.6 SEC
16 Ohio St. 113.5 BTEN
17 TCU 112.9 B12
18 Clemson 112.9 ACC
19 Butler 112.8 BIGE
20 Arizona 112.8 PAC12
21 Michigan 112.7 BTEN
22 Creighton 112.2 BIGE
23 Kentucky 112.2 SEC
24 Nevada 112.1 MWC
25 Florida St. 112.0 ACC

PiRate Ratings By Power Conference

Team PiRate Conf.
Rhode Island 111.1 A10
Davidson 108.6 A10
St. Bonaventure 107.4 A10
VCU 101.3 A10
St. Louis 100.8 A10
Dayton 100.8 A10
St. Joseph’s 100.5 A10
LaSalle 99.8 A10
Duquesne 98.0 A10
George Washington 97.5 A10
Massachusetts 97.3 A10
Richmond 97.2 A10
George Mason 96.3 A10
Fordham 93.0 A10
Cincinnati 118.0 AAC
Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
Houston 111.8 AAC
SMU 107.5 AAC
Temple 105.4 AAC
UCF 104.2 AAC
Tulsa 102.4 AAC
Memphis 100.3 AAC
Tulane 99.5 AAC
Connecticut 99.3 AAC
East Carolina 91.5 AAC
South Florida 90.0 AAC
Duke 120.5 ACC
Virginia 119.4 ACC
North Carolina 116.7 ACC
Clemson 112.9 ACC
Florida St. 112.0 ACC
Virginia Tech 111.4 ACC
Notre Dame 111.1 ACC
Louisville 111.1 ACC
Miami FL 110.8 ACC
North Carolina St. 109.0 ACC
Syracuse 108.7 ACC
Boston College 105.5 ACC
Wake Forest 105.3 ACC
Georgia Tech 102.2 ACC
Pittsburgh 95.3 ACC
Kansas 116.7 B12
West Virginia 115.8 B12
Texas Tech 115.3 B12
TCU 112.9 B12
Baylor 111.1 B12
Oklahoma 111.0 B12
Texas 110.3 B12
Kansas St. 109.6 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.5 B12
Iowa St. 104.9 B12
Villanova 121.7 BIGE
Xavier 115.1 BIGE
Butler 112.8 BIGE
Creighton 112.2 BIGE
Seton Hall 111.3 BIGE
Marquette 109.6 BIGE
Providence 106.9 BIGE
St. John’s 106.9 BIGE
Georgetown 104.6 BIGE
DePaul 103.4 BIGE
Purdue 119.6 BTEN
Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
Ohio St. 113.5 BTEN
Michigan 112.7 BTEN
Penn St. 111.5 BTEN
Maryland 110.9 BTEN
Nebraska 107.8 BTEN
Indiana 107.0 BTEN
Wisconsin 106.4 BTEN
Northwestern 106.4 BTEN
Iowa 105.0 BTEN
Minnesota 104.6 BTEN
Illinois 104.4 BTEN
Rutgers 101.3 BTEN
Arizona 112.8 PAC12
Arizona St. 110.7 PAC12
USC 109.4 PAC12
UCLA 108.7 PAC12
Oregon 107.8 PAC12
Utah 107.8 PAC12
Stanford 104.4 PAC12
Washington 103.5 PAC12
Oregon St. 103.0 PAC12
Colorado 102.0 PAC12
Washington St. 97.3 PAC12
California 94.8 PAC12
Auburn 115.1 SEC
Tennessee 113.6 SEC
Kentucky 112.2 SEC
Florida 111.7 SEC
Texas A&M 111.2 SEC
Arkansas 111.0 SEC
Missouri 110.4 SEC
Alabama 109.9 SEC
Mississippi St. 108.8 SEC
LSU 107.8 SEC
Georgia 106.5 SEC
South Carolina 105.9 SEC
Vanderbilt 105.8 SEC
Mississippi 104.8 SEC
Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
Saint Mary’s 111.5 WCC
BYU 106.4 WCC
San Diego 101.0 WCC
San Francisco 100.3 WCC
Pacific 98.6 WCC
Loyola Marymount 94.2 WCC
Santa Clara 92.9 WCC
Portland 92.9 WCC
Pepperdine 91.0 WCC

PiRate Ratings For Key Mid-Majors

Nevada 112.1 MWC
Boise St. 108.8 MWC
Middle Tennessee 108.6 CUSA
Louisiana Lafayette 108.5 SBC
Loyola (Chi.) 108.3 MVC
Western Kentucky 107.3 CUSA
New Mexico St. 107.2 WAC
Murray St. 106.4 OVC

Conference Tournament Bracket

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 26
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #8 USC Upstate ESPN3
7:30 PM #4 NJIT #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #7 Stetson ESPN3
7:00 PM #3 Jacksonville #6 Kennesaw St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA FGCU/USCU NJIT/N.Fla. ESPN3
TBA Lipsc./Stetson Jville/Kenn ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
3:00 PM Higher Remaining Seed Lower Remaining Seed ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 27, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 27-31, 2016

The Hook
We talked about this in a previous posting, but we now have real data to show you why you should not wager real money on our picks. Last week, we hit a small bonanza, and we came within a few seconds of a major, albeit imaginary, windfall profit.

We issued four long shot money line parlays, each returning better than 2 to 1 odds. We won on two of the four and came within seconds of winning the third one. As it is, our profit from last week was 61% return on the investment. Had that third game that we lost in the last seconds been a winner as well, our profit would have exceeded 100% on the investment.

It’s the “last-second”, “one play,” “fluke play” stuff that hooks the investor to make him or her return the next week to wager more. We have no problem with this. We can wager “$500,000,” and it is the same as if we wagered “$1.” It’s just a fun exercise for a half dozen math geeks, four of whom are members of the fairer sex by the way.

What we have noticed so far this season is that our college picks are winning, while the NFL picks are not doing well at all. The 2016 NFL season has been too tipsy-turvy to hit on parlays. Sure, you can pick New England to win at -300, but that won’t help you much, because at -300, the Patriots basically have to win out to keep you from losing money. If they go 12-4, and you bet on them to win every week at a -300 average, you will invest $300 every week and win $100 12 times, while losing $300 four times. This would allow you to break even in theory, but New England doesn’t go off at -300 each week. They might lose at -450. They might win at -600 over a lousy team. Your invested amount won’t get you the profit to buy that new pearl necklace for that special lady in your life, or that new cell phone with the 16 megapixel camera to replace that camera that is best used to start a campfire.

Until otherwise determined to be safe, we are going to limit our money line parlays to college games only. The upset tendencies this time of year tend to be more conservative than the NFL.

For the season, our “just for fun only” picks have wagered on 31 money line parlay games, all at better than even money odds. We have won 10 of the 31 at an average of $283.25 (on $100 wagered) and lost the other 21 ($-100). This brings us a return of $-130 for the season, which is still a negative 4% return on investment. For what it’s worth, the college selections are responsible for 80% of the winnings, and those picks alone have a positive return on investment, which is why we are going only with college picks this week.

We are going to issue just three selections this week. All three are very long shots such that winning just any one of these three games will make our week an imaginary profitable one. One of the parlays combines two underdogs that we believe can win outright and return an incredible 6+ times what we are pretending to invest.

Look carefully at all three parlays. There is a reason they call them “long shots.” Chances are high that all three will lose, so be forewarned all you reading this with a URL from Las Vegas as well as all you that have figured out which two online books you can find to plug the numbers into a calculator and discover which book we used for each parlay. Remember this: just since we started this feature 15 minutes ago, three of the games that make up the parlays have changed the money line odds.

This Week’s Games

October 27-31,2016
1. College Parlay @ +295
Temple over Cincinnati
Indiana over Maryland
Memphis over Tulsa
Central Michigan over Kent St.
N. C. St. over Boston College
 
2. College Parlay @ +324
Toledo over Ohio
Wake Forest over Army
Southern Miss. over Marshall
Florida over Georgia
Tennessee over South Carolina
Penn St. over Purdue
Washington St. over Oregon St.
 
3. College Parlay @ +607
North Texas over UTSA
Kentucky over Missouri

 

 

March 19, 2016

NCAA 3rd Round Picks–Sunday, March 20, 2016

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:04 pm
Higher Seed Lower Seed Red White Blue
Villanova Iowa 5 4 8
Notre Dame Stephen F. Austin -1 4 -3
Oklahoma VCU 6 4 -1
Syracuse Middle Tennessee 6 10 5
Maryland Hawaii 3 6 7
Texas A&M Northern Iowa 7 9 10
Xavier Wisconsin 6 4 8
Oregon St. Joseph’s 5 4 8

 

Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Higher Seed Lower Seed
12:10 PM CBS Villanova Iowa
2:40 PM CBS Notre Dame Stephen F. Austin
5:10 PM CBS Oklahoma VCU
6:10 PM TNT Syracuse Middle Tennessee
6:45 PM TBS Maryland Hawaii
7:45 PM TruTV Texas A&M Northern Iowa
8:40 PM TNT Xavier Wisconsin
9:40 PM TBS Oregon St. Joseph’s

 

 

January 9, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks for January 9, 2016

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings College Basketball picks with our experimental ratings, 2.0.

The Red Rating uses an algorithm based on the Four Factors of basketball.

The White Rating incorporates a “least squares” principle to the Four Factors.

The Blue Rating is a separate statistics and strength of schedule approach similar to our PiRate Bias Ratings in football.

 

Games Schedule for: Saturday, Jan. 9, 2016      
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Duke Virginia Tech 18 16 19
Georgia Tech Virginia -5 -3 -6
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 5 2 3
Miami Florida St. 11 12 9
Syracuse North Carolina -7 -5 -7
West Virginia Oklahoma St. 16 16 15
Iowa St. Baylor 8 10 4
Oklahoma Kansas St. 16 11 12
TCU Texas -3 -6 -7
Texas Tech Kansas -7 -1 -8
Wisconsin Maryland -3 -2 -5
Minnesota Northwestern -2 -5 1
Rutgers Nebraska -3 -6 -2
Washington St. Washington 2 -1 1
UCLA Arizona St. 5 4 6
USC Arizona 3 5 -1
Oregon St. California 1 1 -2
Tennessee Texas A&M -1 -1 1
Florida LSU 7 10 6
South Carolina Vanderbilt 6 5 8
Arkansas Mississippi St. 7 8 8
Alabama Kentucky -4 -5 -3
Ole Miss Georgia 3 -1 1
Missouri Auburn 2 1 -2

 

December 31, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks for January 2, 2016

Welcome to year two of the experimental PiRate College Basketball Ratings.  In year one, our three ratings performed remarkably well with the Red and White ratings hitting around 77% accuracy and the Blue rating coming in at 72%.

 

Because of time constraints, we will be issuing picks of games played on Saturdays from the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and Southeastern conferences, plus some additional key games involving other teams highly-ranked.  For instance, this week, we will include the Butler-Xavier game, which just might be the game of the week.

 

Our college basketball ratings are not fluid like our football ratings.  We have to recalculate them every game as if it is a brand new rating, so to calculate every game in Division 1, we would have to recalculate upwards of 350 teams a day, and that my friends is just not possible for the small staff we have here.

 

Here is a brief explanation of how we calculate these ratings.

RED: Our Red Rating uses an algorithm based solely on basketball’s “Four Factors,” popularized by basketball metric genius Dean Oliver.  The Four Factors are: effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, rebounding percentage, and free throw rates.  Oliver stated that the outcomes of games are decided by the offensive and defensive rates of these four factors with shooting counting for 40%, turnovers 25%, rebounding 20%, and free throw rates 15%.  We have tweaked his formulas just a tad, especially the philosophy of how to count free throw rates, and we have also separated turnovers into two sub-categories: steals and all others.  We then used the great back-testing tool to find an algorithm that made a “best fit” for the data into actual point spreads.

 

WHITE: Our White Rating uses all the data from the Red Rating and then adds a “least squares” approach to fit the teams into an order of best to worst.  Because we do not plan on rating all 351 D1 teams, we only perform this for the five conferences previously mentioned plus any other teams in our weekly report.   For instance, this week, we rated the 65 teams in the ACC, B12, B10, P12, and SEC plus the 3 extra teams that we have included in this report, ranking them from #1 Kansas to #68 Boston College  We then take the Red Rating and adjust it up or down by a formula based on how much higher or lower each team is in our least squares rating.

 

BLUE: This is another statistics’- based formula relying a lot more on scoring margins and strength of schedule.  The Four Factors do not come into play in this rating.  Who you beat or lost to, and by how much is the base for this rating, but we break it down into a unique manner.  Some teams will win games by large margins when they are superior but may not be as superior overall as other teams that win more consistently buy by smaller margins.  For instance, let’s take three conference teams in a good league: Team A, Team B, and Team C.  A is the best of the three and will eventually win the conference title, while C is a rebuilding team that will finish last in the league.  B will finish in 4th place in this mythical 12-team league.  A is good enough to sweep both B and C, while B will sweep C.  You would normally expect A to beat C by more points than B beats C, but B may be that sort of team that runs the score up on teams like C, while A wins by fewer points.  If A beats C by 12 points, while B beats C by 24 points, you might get the impression that B is better than A.  This Blue rating does not automatically believe that to be the case.

 

One drawback with these formulas is that it cannot account for injuries or other personnel changes.  That is why it is still experimental.  We will not remove the experimental tag until we have a way to account for injuries.  For instance, earlier today, Xavier lost its star point guard Edmund Sumner to an injury that required his removal from the arena by a stretcher.  It is undetermined when he can return to action, and in his absence, XU goes from a Final Four contender to possibly an NIT participant if he is lost for the season.  However, in the Butler game for Saturday, his absence will not be factored into the ratings.

 

Okay, now that we have either confused you or put you to sleep, here are our opening ratings for Saturday, January 2, 2016.  Yes, get used to “2016.”  If it’s 2016, there will be a little national election, and we will supply our metric analysis to this pennant race as well.

 

Games Schedule for: Saturday, January 2, 2016      
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Clemson Florida St. -3 -4 -7
North Carolina Georgia Tech 16 12 16
Virginia Tech North Carolina St. -1 1 -2
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 12 13 11
Boston College Duke -14 -16 -15
Virginia Notre Dame 10 10 9
Kansas St. West Virginia -4 -1 -1
Texas Tech Texas 4 7 3
Oklahoma St. TCU 6 8 7
Kansas Baylor 13 11 10
Oklahoma Iowa St. 10 7 8
Michigan Penn St. 12 10 14
Minnesota Michigan St. -11 -12 -16
Nebraska Indiana -7 -5 -3
Purdue Iowa 7 7 4
Northwestern Maryland -1 -1 -3
Auburn Tennessee 1 -1 4
Texas A&M Arkansas 10 9 12
Kentucky Ole Miss 12 14 9
Florida Georgia 9 8 4
Vanderbilt LSU 11 13 10
South Carolina Memphis 9 8 4
Xavier Butler 5 4 2

August 24, 2011

2011 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

2011 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

 

Last year, Virginia Tech and Florida State met in the ACC Championship Game for the second time in the history of the game.  The Hokies won to advance to the Orange Bowl, where they ran into the new “greatest quarterback ever” in Andrew Luck and Stanford.

 

This year, it looks like a strong possibility that the two powers will once again meet in the ACC Championship Game.  Both teams are national title contenders as well.  Florida State appears to be the stronger team as the season starts, but Virginia Tech doesn’t have a Boise State or Alabama at the start of the schedule this year.  Two teams, North Carolina and Miami, were hit with summer news that could greatly affect their showing this season.  Butch Davis was fired at North Carolina, while Miami may be looking at a possible death penalty.  This could be the season where some of the former bottom feeders move up at the expense of programs in trouble.

 

ATLANTIC DIVISION

 

Florida State

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

E. J. Manuel takes over as starter for Christian Ponder.  He started twice last year and completed 70% of his passes and passed for an excellent 9.3 yards per attempt.  Manuel is also a much better runner than Ponder, so this position will actually be as strong or even stronger this year—as long as Manuel stays healthy.

 

Receivers

Had Taiwan Easterling not decided to become a future Chicago Cub, this might have been one of the 10 best in the nation.  It will still be one of the two best in the ACC.  Bert Reed is an excellent possession receiver; he led the Seminoles with 58 receptions.  Willie Haulstead is more of a deep threat; he led the ‘Noles with 15.4 yards per reception and six touchdowns.  Tight end Beau Reliford caught just 19 passes, but he should contribute more this season.

 

Running Backs

The situation is in limbo here.  Starter Chris Thompson has a bad back, and he is not getting many reps in practice and has missed multiple practices.  Last year, he led FSU with 845 yards while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.  Backups Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas are both capable.  Jones has been a number one back in the past. 

 

Offensive Line

This is Coach Jimbo Fisher’s only concern on this side of the ball, and it really isn’t much of a concern.  Tackle Zebrie Sanders is recovering from a groin injury, and center David Spurlock has missed time and only recently began practicing in full pads.  Tackle Andrew Datko is the star of this unit.

 

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Simply, this is the best front four in the ACC and one of the top five nationally.  End Brandon Jenkins finished second in the league with 13 ½ sacks and 21 ½ tackles for loss.  If he goes pro, he could be the first defensive lineman taken in the 2012 NFL Draft.  Tackles Jaccobi McDaniel and Everett Dawkins make it difficult for enemy backs to run between the tackles.  As a unit, FSU led the nation with 48 sacks.

 

Linebackers

Nigel Bradham is the only returning starter to this unit.  Bradham led the Seminoles with 98 tackles and recorded five sacks and five passes defended.  Christian Jones has the potential to be an all-conference player in his sophomore season.

 

Secondary

All four starters return, but not all are guaranteed a starting spot this year.  The two-deep is hands down the best in the league.  Cornerbacks Greg Reid and Xavier Rhodes teamed for 33 passes defended.  Lamarcus Joiner will start at one of the safety spots, meaning either Terrance Parks or Nick Moody will drop to second team.

 

OTHER

Punter Shawn Powell and place kicker Dustin Hopkins are the best in the ACC at their positions.  Hopkins has enough leg to connect from 60 yards.  Reid is one of the best punt returners in the nation.

 

SUMMARY

We believe FSU will score 35-40 points and gain 400-425 yards per game, while yielding about 17 points and 325-350 yards per game.  Their schedule has one big obstacle in it—a rematch with number one Oklahoma at Doak Campbell Stadium.  In league play, the Seminoles must visit Clemson and Boston College.  The finale with Florida may not be the tough game it has been in the past.

 

It is a big if to expect FSU to beat Oklahoma, but it is possible.  If they win that one, then their destination could easily be New Orleans, and we are not talking the Sugar Bowl.  11-1 headed into the ACC Championship is very possible.

 

Clemson

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Coach Dabo Swinney’s best recruiting effort may have taken place after the season.  Chad Morris comes in from Tulsa to take over at Offensive Coordinator.  So, expect a move to a no-huddle, hurry-up offense.  Can new starter Tajh Boyd impersonate G. J. Kinne?  Behind him are two true freshmen.  Boyd played in seven games and completed just 52% of his passes as a freshman.

 

Receivers

Wideout DeAndre Hopkins and Tight end Dwayne Allen give Boyd a couple of quality targets, but after that, the book is out on the rest of this group.  Hopkins led CU with 52 receptions, 637 yards, and four touchdowns.  Allen could compete for a final spot on the Mackie Award list.  True freshman Sammy Watkins could be the difference in making this a great unit or a better than average unit.

 

Running Backs

The Tigers lose Jamie Harper, who is now a Tennessee Titan.  Andre Ellington returns after starting six games and rushing for 686 yards and 10 touchdowns.  If he stays healthy, he could double that amount this year.

 

Offensive Line

The biggest concern here is the learning curve.  Four starters return from last year, but all the blocking schemes will be radically different.  Center Dalton Freeman has the talent to receive votes for the Rimington Award.  Guard Antoine McClain and tackle Landon Walker could appear on one of the postseason all-conference teams.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

This is going to be a liability and the reason why CU will not compete with Florida State for the ACC Atlantic Division title.  Da’Quan Bowers and his 26 tackles for loss is now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.  Jarvis Jenkins is now a Washington Redskin.  The new replacements are not in their league.  The two returning starters are good ones, but neither will record 26 tackles for loss, and they probably will not combine for that many.  Andre Branch is good enough to become a star end in the ACC.  Brandon Thompson is a quality tackle, but this unit will take a big step backward.

 

Linebackers

Middle linebacker Corico Hawkins is the only returning starter to this unit.  He came up with 10 stops for loss last year, but he did not help much versus the pass.  A couple of true freshmen could see considerable playing time this year.  For now, sophomore Quandon Christian and Jonathan Willard will flank Hawkins.

 

Secondary

Xavier Brewer is the star of this unit.  The cornerback defended 10 passes last year.  Coty Sensabaugh was a late signee four years ago, and now the senior will finish his career as a starter.  Rashard Hall returns at one safety, while Jonathan Meeks will be the new starter at the other safety position.  Overall, this is an above average secondary but not a great one.

 

OTHER

Clemson’s schedule gives the Tigers an excellent chance to start 3-0 prior to hosting Florida State on September 24.  Home games with Troy, Wofford, and Auburn give CU a great chance to go 3-0.  Then, the Tigers host FSU and play at Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks.

 

SUMMARY

Clemson averaged just 24 points per game and 335 yards per game last year.  With the new offense, CU should score 30-35 points per game and gain around 400 yards.  However, the new offense will make things harder for the green defense.  CU gave up just 19 points per game last year, but we see the Tigers giving up about a touchdown more in 2011.  Clemson should win eight or nine games and go bowling once again.

 

Boston College

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Chase Rettig is the clear number one this season, as the three quarterbacks that saw action last year all return.  Rettig passed for 1,238 yards and six touchdowns, but he threw nine interceptions and completed just 51% of his passes last year as a freshman.

 

Receivers

Boston College has been known for its tight ends, and Chris Pantale is the current star.  He caught 31 passes last year and could top that number this season.  Alex Amidon and Bobby Swigert return after combining for 55 receptions and six touchdowns.  There is a lot of experienced depth here, but it is not the most talented.

 

Running Backs

Montel Harris rushed for 1,243 yards and eight touchdowns last year, but he is going to miss some time at the start of the season due to a knee injury.  Backup Andre Williams is also a little banged up, so the Eagles are thin at this position as they start the season.  Rolandan Finch will get first crack at filling this spot until Williams and Harris are ready to go.  BC has averaged less than four yards per rush every year since Derrick Knight graduated as the all-time rushing leader in 2003.

 

Offensive Line

The Eagles have been known for developing excellent lines, but this year’s OL will be a liability for 3rd year coach Frank Spaziani.  Only two starters return, and one of those two will miss the start of the season.  Guard Nathan Richman has a back injury and will not be ready for the start of the season.  Tackle Emmett Cleary is a titan at 6-07 and 300 pounds.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

The Eagles must start over almost from scratch in the trenches.  Three of the four starters from 2010 have left the building; BC gave up just a little over 80 rushing yards per game last year, and that number was not inflated by a lot of sacks.  Only tackle Kaleb Ramsey returns.  Ramsey made 7 ½ stops behind the line and finished with 39 tackles.  Max Holloway was a part-time starter last year.  He will start full-time at one end spot after leading the team with 14 tackles for loss and four sacks.

 

Linebackers

This is where the defense shines, and the reason the Eagles have a chance to repeat as the number two defense in the league.  It starts with return of consensus All-American Luke Kuechly, who led the nation with 183 tackles.  He also intercepted three passes and batted away three others.  Nick Clancy has been impressive in August drills, and he could become the new starter at the Sam position, while Kevin Pierre-Louis returns to the Will position.  Pierre-Louis was a Freshman All-American last year after recording 93 tackles.  If Clancy can repeat in games what he has done in scrimmages, this could become a top three unit.

 

Secondary

As optimistic as things are at linebacker, the secondary is almost as much pessimistic.  The dismissal of expected starting safety Okechukwu Okoroha and the back injury to cornerback Donnie Fletcher has left BC thin in the backfield.  Fletcher will miss the opening of the season.  The new safety figures to be Spenser Rositano, a true freshman.  Jim Noel started eight games last year and picked off four passes.  He will start at the other safety spot.  Cornerback Al Louis-Jean, a true freshman, will replace Fletcher until he is ready to return, while redshirt freshman Dominique Williams figures to start at the other corner spot.

 

OTHER

Boston College has yielded less than 20 points per game six of the last seven years and his not given up more than 333 yards in any of those seasons.  They have surrendered just 92 rushing yards per game in the last six seasons.

 

SUMMARY

This is a tricky season to predict Boston College’s outcome.  The Eagles could be as much as a touchdown weaker than normal to start the season due to key injuries, and their opener comes against Northwestern, a team that can beat them.  In week two, they have a trap game at Central Florida, before opening conference play in Chestnut Hill against an improved Duke team.  BC could be 3-0, 2-1, or 1-2 by this time, and that will give an excellent barometer for what will happen at the back end of the schedule.  Games four and five are as close to sure wins as they will have (hosting UMass and Wake Forest). The Eagles end the season on the road against Notre Dame and Miami.  Road games against Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Maryland will make for a tough October stretch.  If BC is to go bowling for the 13th consecutive season, they need to start 4-1 at the least.

 

North Carolina State

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

There will be a drop-off from what they had to what they will get this year out of this position.  Russell Wilson left Raleigh with the thoughts of playing professional baseball.  He ended up playing college football in Madison, Wisconsin.  Mike Glennon takes over after completing nine passes for 78 yards last year.  Glennon saw action in three games last year, but he did play in seven as a freshman.  He won’t replicate Wilson’s numbers, but he will have some good games—and some bad games.  His mobility is a question at this point; he is not a dual threat like Wilson.

 

Receivers

The Wolfpack must replace their top two receivers from 2010.  Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams teamed for 112 receptions and 1600+ yards.  T. J. Graham should become the go-to guy this year.  He caught 25 passes and scored four touchdowns.  Coach Tom O’Brien is concerned with this position, because the talent level drops off quite a bit after Graham.  Tight end George Bryan will be called on to be a primary receiver after catching 35 passes last year.  Look for more dropped passes and fewer yards per reception.

 

Running Backs

Mustafa Greene led NCSU with 597 rushing yards last year, but a foot injury will keep him from playing until October.  O’Brien will choose from among four contenders to replace Greene for the first month.  James Washington, Brandon Barnes, Curtis Underwood, and Anthony Creecy could all see action.  Washington and Underwood have the most experience, but Creecy has the best moves.

 

Offensive Line

What was already a concern became something a bit more concerning after the ‘Pack saw one guard leave the program and two others suffer knee injuries that will keep them out for at least the first month of the season.  Nobody on the roster will earn an all-conference award this year.  Center Camden Wentz, guard Zach Allen, and tackle R. J. Mattes at least have experience on their side.  NCSU only averaged 3.5 yards per rush last year, and the OL gave up 39 sacks with a mobile quarterback under center.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

There’s more bad news on this side of the ball.  The one star in the trenches, J. R. Sweezy, is out six weeks with a foot injury.  That leaves end Jeff Rieskamp as the only player with real experience.  Rieskamp only picked up two QB sacks, but he did force 17 QB hurries. 

Linebackers

This trio is second in the conference in talent only to the group at Boston College.  Audie Cole recorded five sacks and picked up 10 ½ tackles for loss last year.  Terrell Manning added five sacks and 11 tackles for loss.  Rickey Dowdy figures to be the new starter after moving from defensive end.  The Wolfpack will miss Nate Irving, who led the team with 97 tackles and 20 ½ tackles for loss.

 

Secondary

All four starters return from 2010, but this unit is not a major plus.  Cornerback C. J. Wilson led the team with 10 passes defended, but his counterpart, David Amerson, only had one.  Safety Earl Wolff finished third on the team with 91 tackles and proved to be an effective safety blitzer.  Brandon Bishop led the team with four interceptions.

 

OTHER

O’Brien’s four years in Raleigh have seen his teams post 5-7 seasons in the odd years and advance to bowls in the even years.  The ease of the schedule could give him a chance to break that string.  After scoring almost 32 points per game and gaining more than 400, we do not see the Wolfpack matching those numbers this year.  Call it 22-26 points and 350-375 yards.  The defense could come close to matching last year’s record of 21 points and 340 yards. 

 

SUMMARY

Home games with Liberty, South Alabama, Central Michigan, and North Carolina plus a road games with Wake Forest and Virginia give NCSU a great shot for six wins.  A game at Cincinnati on Thursday, September 22, could be the best shot at a seventh win.  Do not expect another nine-win season.

 

Maryland

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

New head coach Randy Edsall brought in former BYU head coach and LSU offensive coordinator Gary Crowton to run the Terp offense.  Crowton has an excellent quarterback to work with and an up and coming backup.  Danny O’Brien completed 57% of his passes last year for 2,438 yards and 22 touchdowns.  C. J. Brown shows promise, and if O’Brien falters or is injured, he is more than capable of playing for extended time.

 

Receivers

The Terps lost their top two receivers from a year ago, including Torrey Smith.  Smith caught 67 passes for 1,055 yards and 12 touchdowns.  The new group of receivers should improve as the season progresses, but the road could be bumpy early.

 

Quintin McCree, Ronnie Tyler, and Kevin Dorsey combined for just 44 receptions and 524 yards.  There is some depth here with true freshman Marcus Leak a highly-prized recruit.  Tony Logan could challenge for a starting nod, and Kenny Boykins should contribute.

 

Tight end Matt Furstenburg added a dozen receptions but led the team with 17.2 yards per catch.

 

Running Backs

Davin Meggett takes over full-time here after splitting time with Da’Rel Scott last year.  Meggett rushed for 720 yards, seldom losing yardage.  He should go over 1,000 this year.

 

Offensive Line

Three starters return, but there are no stars on this unit.  The dismissal of guard Justin Lewis and the double broken legs of tackle Pete DeSouza from a motorcycle accident makes this a thin unit. Center Bennett Fulper, guard Andrew Gonnella and tackle R. J. Dill are the experienced veterans.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

All four starters from 2010 return this year, but end Justin Anderson has an injured foot.  He had lost his starting spot to Isaiah Ross.  The strength of this unit is at tackle.  A. J. Francis and Joe Vellano teamed for 107 tackles and 17 ½ stops for loss.  True freshman Keith Bowers could see the field early.

 

Linebackers

There is no depth at linebacker, so the three starters better stay healthy and be able to play for long stretches.  Kenny Tate moves to linebacker from safety after he made 100 tackles with 8 ½ for loss.  He intercepted three passes and broke up four others.  Demetrius Hartsfield finished third on the team with 88 tackles.

 

With no real depth here, Edsall moved Avery Graham from cornerback to a backup linebacker spot.  Graham is 5-10 and weighs just 195 pounds.

 

Secondary

Cornerbacks Cameron Chism and Trenton Hughes return after recording 18 passes defended, but only one interception.  Matt Robinson and Eric Franklin will not be able to match the efforts by last year’s safeties.

 

OTHER

Logan is an excellent punt returner.  In 2010, he took two punts to the house while averaging 18.1 yards per return.

 

SUMMARY

Edsall has a chance to send the Terps to a bowl this year, but the team will not match last year’s results.  The schedule offers them no favors.  Out of the league, the Terps host West Virginia, Temple, and Towson.  They face Notre Dame at Fedex Field (Washington Redskins home), which is basically a home game.  It looks like Maryland will go 2-2 in those games.  Maryland will have to break even in the league just to get to 6-6.

 

Wake Forest

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Tanner Price edged out Ted Stachitas in the spring.  As a freshman, Price led the Demon Deacons with 1,349 passing yards and seven touchdowns.  He completed 56.8%, but he only averaged 5.6 yards per attempt.  True freshman Kevin Sousa is the top incoming recruit, but he may not see the field this year.

 

Receivers

This unit is not all that strong, but it has to be an improvement over last year, when WF averaged just 144 passing yards per game.  Chris Givens returns after leading the Deacs with 35 receptions and four touchdowns.  However, Givens has a hamstring injury, and his status for the start of the season is unclear.  Danny Dembry (8 receptions) may start in his place.  Michael Campanero should more than double his number of catches in 2011, but he only caught 10 last year.  Tight end Andrew Parker is more of a run-blocker, while Cameron Ford is the better route runner.

 

Running Backs

The Demon Deacons averaged more than four yards per carry last year for the first time in five years.  Josh Harris returns after gaining 720 yards and scoring seven times.  He averaged 5.7 yards per rush.  Two quality backs will back him up.  Brandon Pendergrass and Nick Knott should both see action this season.

 

Offensive Line

Four starters return to the line, so this unit should fare better this year.  However, they are prone to giving up sacks.  Four of the five are seniors, so this unit will keep mistakes to a minimum.  Guard Joe Looney is the one candidate likely to appear on an all-conference ballot. 

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe switched the team from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in the middle of last year’s season.  It made Nikita Whitlock a nose guard instead of a defensive tackle.  Semantics aside, Whitlock recorded 10 ½ tackles for loss.  He got better as the season progressed.  Zach Thompson and Tristan Dorty will be the two new starters at end.  Dorty was a linebacker last year and made 7 ½ tackles for losses.

 

Linebackers

Kyle Wilber figures to be the star of this unit.  He comes off a season in which he led the team with 14 ½ stops behind the line and six sacks.  He also got his paws in on four balls to send them harmlessly to the ground.  Scott Betros, Justin Jackson, and Joey Ehrmann figure to make up the rest of the quartet.  Wilber has been nursing a sore hamstring, and in his absence, Zachary Allen has been subbing for him.  While not overpowering, this unit should improve this year if Wilber can get healthy.

 

Secondary

Three starters return, led by safety Cyhl Quarles, who recorded 71 stops last year.  Kenny Okoro and Merrill Noel will start at the corners, while Joe Bush starts at the other safety spot.  This unit has room for improvement after giving up 238 passing yards per game in 2010.

 

OTHER

Kicker Jimmy Newman was almost perfect last year.  He connected on all of his PAT attempts and was 12 of 13 in field goal attempted.

 

SUMMARY

The non-conference part of the schedule is Jekyll and Hyde.  Wake Forest plays at Syracuse and hosts Notre Dame, two games the Deacons figure to lose.  They host Gardner-Webb, the only sure thing on the schedule this year.  They host Vanderbilt in the season finale, and that game should be a close one.  Wake Forest will go 2-2 or 1-3 in those four games.  In the ACC, the Deacs host North Carolina State and Maryland, the two teams that figure to be just above them in the preseason polls.  Road games with North Carolina and Duke could be winnable based on how WF has performed leading up to those games.

 

There are not enough winnable games on the schedule to see any way Wake Forest could get to six wins.  Four wins seem about right.

 

COASTAL DIVISION

 

Virginia Tech

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Replacing all-time leading passer Tyrod Taylor will be tough.  Taylor passed for 2,743 yards with a 24/5 TD/int ratio, while rushing for more than 900 yards (sacks removed).

 

Logan Thomas is big and mobile.  At 6-6 and almost 250 pounds, he is built like a tight end and was recruited to Tech as an H-Back.  Thomas saw limited action as a freshman, completing 12 of 26 passes for just 107 yards, while rushing for 29 yards on five carries. 

 

Receivers

Coach Frank Beamer has three receivers capable of challenging for all-conference honors.  Jarrett Boykin leads the way after grabbing a team-high 53 receptions in 2010.  He averaged 16 yards per catch.  Danny Coale averaged nearly 19 yards on his 39 receptions, while former QB Marcus Davis added 19 receptions.  Chris Drager has moved from tight end to defensive end and back to tight end. Eric Martin shows promise and could be used in a double tight end formation.

 

Running Backs

David Wilson has 1,000-yard potential, and the Hokies will not miss much of a beat after losing two key backs, one of whom signed with the Arizona Cardinals.  Three players are competing for the backup position.  Josh Oglesby is the leader, followed by Tony Gregory and Michael Holmes.

 

Offensive Line

This shaped up to be one of the best in the country until injuries hit two starters.  Guard Greg Kosal suffered a shoulder injury, and tackle Blake DeChristopher went down with a pectoral injury.  Both players are well-ahead of schedule in their return, but neither may be ready for the season-opener.  David Wang is working as Kosal’s replacement, and Nick Becton, Michael Via, or Vinston Painter will fill in at tackle.

 

Center Andrew Miller takes over the starting role after seeing extensive playing time as a freshman.  He is a former high school state wrestling champion and the strongest player on the line.  Guard James Brooks made the 2nd team all-conference squad last year.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Defensive coordinator Bud Foster has been at VT for a quarter century.  Last year, a young defensive line led to the Hokies giving up more than 20 points per game and 300 yards per game for the first time since 2003.  This year’s defensive line is a concern once again with three new starters.

 

The one holdover is tackle Antoine Hopkins.  His brother Derrick will start opposite him.  The new ends are James Gayle and J. R. Collins, with redshirt freshman Zack McCray and true freshman Luther Maddy backing them up.  The potential is there for this unit to be tougher to run on than last year and with an equal pass rush.

 

Linebackers

The Hokies have both quality and quantity here, as they can go two-deep with little drop-off in talent.  Bruce Taylor is a probably 1st team All-ACC middle linebacker.  He led VT with 91 tackles and 15 ½ for loss last year with six sacks and 12 QB hurries.  He also showed his worth as a pass defender, separating the receiver from the ball four times.  Telvion Clark and Tariq Edwards are competing for one outside spot, while Jeron Gouveia-Winslow is competing with Nick Dew for the other spot.

 

Secondary

The Hokies have excellent talent, but they are not as deep here as Beamer would like to be.  Cornerback Jayron Hosley is the best in the league at his position.  He led the ACC with nine interceptions and finished tied for first with 17 passes defended.  Kyle Fuller replaces all-star Rashad Campbell; Fuller had six passes defended as a reserve last year.

 

Safeties Antoine Exum and Eddie Watley switched positions this summer, with Exum moving to free safety and Whitley moving to rover.  

 

OTHER

This is a much easier schedule for VT than the last two.  Appalachian State replaces Boise State and Alabama as the season opener.  Road trips to East Carolina and Marshall book-end a home game with Arkansas State.  The Hokies get Clemson, Miami, and Boston College at home and avoid Florida State.  They could easily run the table in the regular season.  One loss will eliminate them from any national championship talk.  They have to go 13-0 and hope two other big name teams do not do so as well.

 

SUMMARY

We believe Thomas will emerge as an excellent quarterback, but he will not be as consistent as his predecessor.  His percentage will be lower, but his yards per reception could be higher.  Look for VT to average 28-30 points per game and 375-400 yards per game.  On defense, the Hokies will recover from last year’s aberration and give up less than 20 points and 300 yards again.  A 12-0 regular season is a strong possibility, but remember this team has lost some early games to teams they should have beaten handily.  Remember James Madison last year and East Carolina in 2008?

 

Miami

Note: The PiRate Ratings have not been able to adjust for the recent news that emerged from Miami.  School President Donna Shalala revealed that 15 current players are being investigated for receiving illegal benefits from Miami booster and convicted felon Nevin Shapiro.  Those names were not release, but Shapiro implicated 12 players.  Since we do not know at this point just how involved things are, we cannot begin to deduct points from their rating.  We can try to put a number on the intangible destruction of the program as a whole, but for now, their PiRate Rating shows them as the second best team in the Coastal Division.

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Miami quarterbacks were a bit too generous with the ball last year, throwing 26 interceptions (2/game, almost 6% of all passes).  New head coach Al Golden faces an additional headache because the projected starter is one of the 12 current Hurricanes implicated by Shapiro.  Jacory Harris may or may not get to suit up this year for his senior season.  Harris has quite an arm, but he has not been accurate.

 

Sophomore Stephen Morris will inherit the position if Harris is declared ineligible.  Morris started the four times last year and posted stats similar to Harris—54% completions 6% interceptions.  He did average better than 15 yards per completion. 

 

Receivers

Again, it is unsure if this position will be decimated with ineligibility.  Travis Benjamin and Aldarius Johnson combined for 58 receptions and 900 yards last year; both were accused by Shapiro.  That would leave LaRon Byrd as the only experienced receiver.  He caught 41 passes, but Byrd does not have the elusiveness of the other two.  True freshman Phillip Dorsett could be thrust into action immediately.

 

The top two tight ends, USC transfer Blake Ayles and Chase Ford, have both missed practices with injuries.  Ayles was a 5-star recruit when he entered Trojanland four years ago.

 

Running Backs

Lamar Miller is a speedster, who can break open a long gain with the slightest of daylight.  He averaged six yards per carry and scored six times.  Mike James will back him up.

 

Offensive Line

This unit has a lot of depth, even with the loss of tackle Seantrel Henderson, who underwent back surgery and should miss the season.

 

Guard Brandon Washington made the 1st Team All-ACC squad, while center Tyler Horn earned 3rd Team honors.  Harland Gunn will start at guard.  Joel Figueora is a sixth year senior who can play either guard or tackle.  Redshirt Malcolm Bunche could start at tackle, while Jermaine Johnson and Jon Feliciano will provide depth.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

This area is going to take a major hit if its five implicated players are declared ineligible.  Projected starting tackle Marcus Forston, starting ends Marcus Robinson and Olivier Vernon, and key backups Adewale Ojomo and Dyron Dye are the heart and soul of the line.  Forston, Vernon, and Ojomo represent 114 tackles, 14 sacks, 30 tackles for loss.

 

Tackle Micanor Regis was not implicated by Shapiro.  He made 42 tackles with eight for loss.  True freshman Anthony Chickillo could join seldom used Andrew Smith at end.

 

Linebackers

One player was accused from this unit, but he is the best defender on the team.  Sean Spence finished second on the team last year with 111 tackles, 17 for loss.  Spence also knocked away six passes.  If he becomes ineligible, outside linebacker Ramon Buchanan will become the leader of this unit.  The vacant middle linebacker spot will go to Jordan Futch, with true freshman Gionni Paul providing backup.

 

Secondary

75% of the expected starting defensive backfield is on Shapiro’s List.  Cornerback JoJo Nicolas and Safeties Ray Ray Armstrong and Vaughn Telemaque combined for 173 tackles and 15 passes defended.  This unit will become a major liability if these players are declared ineligible, and Miami will give up at least 100 extra yards through the air than they would have with the three starters in the lineup.

 

OTHER

Shapiro accused 12 players, but the university is investigating 15.  Aside from the possible loss of eligibility, the total repercussions are greater than just the loss of 12 or 15 players.  Others will “quit” on the team, and the situation will steamroller into a catastrophe.  The Hurricanes were in line to achieve 10 to 12 wins this year if the quarterbacks could cut down on interceptions.  It could get ugly in Coral Gables, and “The U” could be looking at a losing season.

 

SUMMARY

The schedule offers few breathers.  Miami begins the season playing at Maryland on Labor Day.  Then, the ‘Canes host Ohio State in what will receive some sarcastic billing as convicts vs. convicts.  A home game with Kansas State now becomes a losable game.  Bethune-Cookman is the only sure win if all the players are lost.

 

With all the players available, Miami could go 10-2.  Without them, the Hurricanes could finish with four or five wins.  They are somewhere between 17 and 25 points weaker per game if the players are declared ineligible.  Golden inherits a mess, and we would not be surprised if he leaves after just one season.

 

North Carolina

Here is another situation, but it pales in comparison to the one in Miami.  Butch Davis was fired as head coach late in the off-season, and defensive coordinator Everett Withers was appointed as interim head coach.

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Bryn Renner gets first crack at replacing T. J. Yates.  Yates completed 67% of his passes for 3,418 yards and 19 touchdowns last year, topping the eight-yard per attempt mark.  Renner threw two passes, completing one for 14 yards.  The Tar Heels passed for 264 yards per game in 2010, and it would be a stretch to think Renner can match that number.  Look for a considerable decline here.

 

Receivers

Renner has the top two receivers returning from 2010.  Dwight Jones led the club with 62 receptions and 946 yards.  Erik Highsmith finished second with 348 yards.  Jheranie Boyd is the wildcard here.  He took a pass from Yates and ran 97 yards for a score against LSU in last year’s opener, en route to a 221-yard night.  He was only 8 for 89 after that.  He also was used to run the wide reverse and gained 62 yards on 10 attempts.  This unit is loaded.

 

Running Backs

This unit loses its top three players from last year.  It welcomes back Ryan Houston, who missed last year with an injury.  Houston is not fast, but he requires two or more defenders to bring him down.  Houston will remind some fans of Jerome Bettis.  However, he has not participated in contact drills due to his shoulder surgery earlier this year.  The roster is thin after Houston with redshirt and true freshmen backing him up.

 

Offensive Line

This is where the Carolina offense needs to improve the most.  The Tar Heels’ line gave up 37 sacks last year.  Three starters return this year—center Cam Holland, guard Jonathan Cooper, and tackle James Hurst.  Cooper was a 2nd Team All-ACC player, while Hurst earned Freshman All-American accolades.  Travis Bond started against Tennessee in the Music City Bowl, and he will man the vacant guard position, while Brennan Williams will take over at tackle.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

What could have been the top DL in the nation last year turned into an average line due to the ineligibility of two top players.  End Quinton Coples took advantage of his chance to start and bankrolled it into a spot on the All-ACC first team.  He finished third in the league with 10 sacks and was credited with 12 QB Hurries.  Donte Paige-Moss starts at the other end spot.  Moss recorded 13 ½ stops behind the line.  Withers can count on three players to rotate at the tackle positions.  Tydreke Powell, Sylvester Williams, and Jordan Nix are all listed as 1st string players.  While not as talented as what 2010 could have been, this is one of the best lines in the league.

 

Linebackers

Two starters return from last year; Kevin Reddick and Zach Brown finished one-two in tackles with 74 and 72 respectively.  Reddick has all-conference potential.  Darius Lipford will be the new starter.  This unit is about average for the ACC.

 

Secondary

A hand injury to expected starting cornerback Jabari Price will keep him out for at least all of September.  Charles Brown will miss the opener after having to sit out a game, so two new cornerbacks will start at the beginning of the season.  Safety Tre Boston might start at cornerback until Brown and Price are back.  Matt Merletti will start at one safety position.  Wide receiver Todd Harrelson moves to cornerback to fill in, and true freshman Tim Scott might start the opening game.

 

Brown is the star of this unit, but UNC will sorely miss Da’Norris Searcy and Deunta Williams.  Opponents will find holes in the Carolina secondary.

 

OTHER

There is only one cupcake on the schedule, and James Madison must be taken seriously; just ask Virginia Tech!  The remainder of non-league games include home games with Rutgers and Louisville and a trip to East Carolina.  UNC will be fortunate to go 3-1 in those four games.  UNC draws Virginia, Clemson, and North Carolina State from the Atlantic and avoids Florida State.  It looks like a 4-4 conference mark will be their limit this year; interim coaches are hit or miss.

 

SUMMARY

The Tar Heels will try to rely on more lengthy drives rather than trying to make quick touchdowns.  They averaged just 25 points per game but gained close to 400 yards per game.  The yardage definitely will drop, but the scoring could be about the same and not much less if any.

 

Defensively, the ‘Heels will go as far as their front four will take them.  The back seven is a little suspect, especially in the secondary.  Opponents will complete 60% of their passes and gain more than 200 yards through the air.  We believe UNC will surrender about as many points as they score.  It looks like another so-so season in Chapel Hill, but cheer up Carolina Fans—basketball season is not that far away.

 

Duke

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

If Harris is ineligible at Miami, Duke’s Sean Renfree will be the only returning quarterback in the Coastal Division.  Renfree is on the cusp of breaking out into Coach David Cutcliffe’s next star passer.  He tutored a couple of guys with the last name of Manning, so he knows how to develop passers.

 

Renfree threw for more than 3,100 yards and completed better than 61% of his passes last year.  14 of those passes went for touchdowns, but 17 went into the wrong pair of hands.  If he can reduce his mistakes this year, we could be looking at an All-ACC performer.

 

Receivers

Renfree has some quality players to pass to.  Conner Vernon and Donovan Varner could both finish in the top five in the league in receptions and yardage after combining for 133 catches for 1,709 yards last year.  Brandon Braxton will at least double his amount of receptions this year after grabbing 14 passes in 2010.  Tight end Cooper Helfet added 34 receptions, so this group has talent. Keep an eye on true freshman Jamison Crowder.

 

Running Backs

At Duke, 110 yards per game is an exemplary amount of rushing yards.  It was the most in five seasons in Durham.  Desmond Scott, Josh Snead, and Juwan Thompson all return after sharing the load last year, and the Duke running game should top 100 yards again this season.  The quartet will also top four yards per carry, making this unit abnormally strong in 2011—at least for Duke.

 

Offensive Line

This is the major question mark on this side of the ball.  The Blue Devils’ offensive line has been rather offensive in recent years.  The loss of starting center Brian Moore for an indefinite amount of time (fractured forearm) clouds the issue even more.

 

Cutcliffe has recruited well the last couple of years, and we have a sneaky suspicion that the offensive line will improve to mediocrity this season.  At Duke, mediocre is a milestone.

 

Dave Harding was an outstanding freshman last year in a part-time starter role.  He will move in from guard and take over at center.  Perry Simmons and Kyle Hill will protect the flanks and open up holes at their tackle positions.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

The biggest addition to the defensive line will not suit up once this season.  He is new defensive line coach Rick Petri.  Petri has over 30 years of successful experience.

 

Petri will mold a defensive line that improves on the 200+ yards allowed rushing and only 12 sacks.  Duke switches to a 4-2-5 defense this year.  Sydney Sarmiento and Charlie Hatcher return to the inside.  Sarmiento shows promise and could emerge as a star in the next couple of years, while Hatcher is a two-gap plugger.  He finished second on the team last year with 7 ½ tackles for loss.  End Kenny Anunike is nursing a bad ankle and could miss the opener, but redshirt freshman Dezmond Johnson could step in and produce for the Blue Devils.

 

Linebackers

This is the biggest liability on the team.  Mike linebacker Kelby Brown is smaller than some safeties, and he is coming back from a knee injury.  Austin Gamble will team up to form a rather weak two-man tandem. Brown hustles and makes a lot of plays, but frequently backs get an extra yard or two.

 

Secondary

Three starters return to a unit that is not that far from respectability.  Safety Matt Daniels is the star of this unit.  He played admirably against both the run and pass last year, coming up with six stops behind the line and batting away seven passes with an interception.  Lee Butler returns at a safety position after posting nine passes defended.  August Campbell will take on the new hybrid safety/linebacker position.

 

Ross Cockrell led the Blue Devils with three interceptions.  He returns at one cornerback spot, while Zach Greene figures to start at the other spot.

 

OTHER

Duke missed a seven-win season by a thin margin last year.  Close losses to Wake Forest, Maryland, Boston College, and North Carolina left Duke at 3-9 instead.  If the offense improves by four to five points, and the defense does the same, Duke could be looking at its first six-win season since 1994.

 

SUMMARY

We admit here at the PiRate Ratings that we have the highest esteem for Coach Cutcliffe and believe he will guide Duke back to a bowl game—if not this year, then next.  Duke can win six games this year.

 

The schedule has become somewhat easier since the start of summer.  Duke’s opening game against Richmond got a lot easier when the Spiders had to replace their coach following his DUI arrest less than two weeks before the game.  The Blue Devils also face Miami and North Carolina, two more teams facing dilemmas.

 

Add Tulane and Florida International as well as home games with Georgia Tech and Wake Forest and a road game with Virginia, and you can make a case for six wins.

 

Virginia

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Uh-oh!  Virginia is in a bit of a mess here.  It’s nice to have four options at quarterback, but Coach Mike London is having to choose from a weakness and not a strength.  The loss of Marc Verica will cause UVA to drop drastically in the passing game. 

 

Sophomore Michael Rocco appears to hold a slight edge at this point after throwing 25 passes last year.  True freshman David Watford could eventually be the man under center, while Michael Strauss and Ross Metheny are in the mix.  Whoever ends up playing, expect a possibility of 100 less passing yards this season.

 

Receivers

The Cavs must replace their top play-maker from 2010.  Dontrelle Inman averaged 18 yards on his 51 receptions, and there is nobody on the roster capable of matching those numbers.

 

Kris Burd actually led in receptions with 58, but he is the only receiver capable of becoming a breakaway threat.  True freshman Darius Jennings could emerge as a key player in his first season.

 

Running Backs

Perry Jones was a co-primary option last year and rushed for 646 yards and a touchdown.  The absence of Keith Payne and his ability to convert on third and short and at the goal line will cost more than his 750 rushing yards.

 

Offensive Line

The only reason for optimism on offense this year is a rather decent and experienced offensive line.  Four starters return, including tackle Morgan Moses, who stood out as a freshman last year.  Center Anthony Mihota, guard Austin Pasztor, and tackle Oday Aboushi are the other three returning starters.  This unit is the only real plus on the 2011 offense.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Virginia could not stop enemy backs last year and was torched for more than 200 rushing yards per game and better than five yards per rush allowed.  The pass rush only produced 19 sacks, so there is a lot of room for improvement.

 

London will play three tackles in a rotation.  Matt Conrath, Nick Jenkins, and Will Hill will split time inside.  At end, Jake Snyder and Cam Johnson will start.  Johnson is the stud of this unit; he led the Cavs with 6 ½ sacks and 14 ½ tackles for loss.  Expect some improvement in the trenches.

 

Linebackers

This is the major liability on this side of the ball, even though all three starters return from 2010.  Middle linebacker Steve Greer, Will linebacker LaRoy Reynolds, and Sam Linebacker Aaron Taliaferro are competent but not spectacular.  The trio made 161 stops last year but only 1 ½ sacks on blitzes.

 

Secondary

The back line is quite talented, and with the addition of some quality recruits, it will have depth this year as well.  Cornerback Chase Minnifield led the Cavs with 10 passes defended including six interceptions. Safety Rodney McLeod provided excellent run support, but he needs to improve in the passing game.  True freshman Tra Nicholson takes over at the other cornerback spot.  Three other true freshmen, cornerback Brandon Phelps and safeties Anthony Harris and Darius Lee will see playing time.

 

OTHER

Virginia’s schedule will give them a chance to top last year’s four wins.  The Cavaliers should be favored in three of their four non-ACC games.  They host William & Mary in the opener, but UVA lost to W&M two years ago.  The Tribe will be tough to beat.  Virginia travels to Indiana and hosts Southern Miss and Idaho.  It is a tricky non-league slate; the Cavs could win all or lose all, but we believe they should go 3-1 or 2-2.  In ACC play, Virginia must play at Miami and North Carolina, the two schools with predicaments. If those games had been at Scott Stadium, then UVA might be figured to win both. 

 

SUMMARY

The Cavaliers return 17 starters, but three of the four missing were the top three players on offense.  We believe the new offense will have a tough time exceeding last year’s offense.  The defense will definitely be better, but the question remains: how many more plays will the stop side have to defend if the offense does not gel?

 

We believe Virginia is looking a repeat of last year.

 

Georgia Tech

 

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Joshua Nesbitt was known only for his running skills, but he ran the option like a magician.  He was on pace for a 1,000-yard rushing season before he went out for the season against Virginia Tech in game nine.  Tevin Washington started the last three regular season games plus the bowl game, and he put up similar numbers to Nesbitt.  Look for Washington to lead the team in rushing, but his passing may be no better than Nesbitt.  Tech completed just 38.1% of their passes in 2010, numbers that sound like the 1940’s and 1950’s.

 

Receivers

The top four receivers return to the fold.  Okay, the top four receivers caught a grand total of 40 passes, so this position is more about downfield blocking and getting open deep when the defense thinks you will decoy or block yet again.  Stephen Hill got open and led the team with 15 receptions; he averaged close to 20 yards per catch.

 

Running Backs

The Yellow Jackets will miss Anthony Allen, who led the ACC with 1,316 yards.  The new B-Back (fullback) is former quarterback David Sims.  He has won the job after being fourth on the depth chart in spring.  Don’t expect 1,300 yards from this position, but Sims will get the job done and force an extra defender into the box to prevent him from gaining three, four, and five yards with consistency.

 

Both starting A-backs (slot backs) return this year.  Orwin Smith and Roddy Jones combined for 869 yards, averaging 8.3 yards per carry, mostly on pitches from Nesbitt. 

 

Tech must cut down on the high number of fumbles this year.  They were -6 in turnover margin because of the numerous fumbles in the option plays.

 

Offensive Line

Even though option offenses can cover up liabilities in the blocking corps, this is still a big concern.  Two players expected to start will not be available at the beginning of the season.  Will Jackson and Phil Smith are out with injuries.  Jackson was selected as a Freshman All-American last year.  Backup guard Ryan Bailey is also out with an injury, so GT has some issues here. 

 

True freshman Trey Braun will start at one of the guard spots.  Omoregie Uzzi, the top blocker, will start at the other guard spot.

 

In the option offense, the line must make a lot of calls prior to the snap, and it requires a lot of thinking prior to reacting.  With the line in despair, this could be a problem early in the season.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

This is the only area on this side of the ball that does not have a lot of holes to fill.  As it is, the defensive line is average at best.

 

All three starters return.  Nose tackle Logan Walls can adequately plug the middle.  He only made 23 tackles, but he kept blockers away from the inside linebackers.  Ends Izaan Cross and Jason Peters combined for 11 ½ tackles for loss, and Cross knocked away four passes.  This group is not the best pass rushing trio, and they allowed enemy runners to average 4.5 yards per carry.

 

Linebackers

Two starters return, but it is new starter Jeremiah Attaochu that should become the star of this mediocre quartet.  As a freshman in a reserve role, the outside linebacker registered 23 tackles with three sacks.  Steven Sylvester will man the other outside linebacker spot, while Julian Burnett and Daniel Drummond will start on the inside.  Sylvester led the Techsters with 10 ½ tackles for loss.

 

Secondary

This unit is in shambles, and it is the reason the PiRate Ratings list them as the last place team in the Coastal Division to start the season.

 

Not having much depth to start with, GT lost two players that were expected to contribute.  Fred Holton tore his Achilles tendon and is done for the season, while Ryan Ayers transferred to Liberty.

 

Louis Young will start at one cornerback.  In limited action in 2010, he made 10 tackles.  Rod Sweeting takes over at the opposite corner after recording eight passes defended.  Safeties Rashaad Reid and Isaiah Johnson have some experience, but neither will be able to replace Dominique Reese, who was tough against both the run and pass.  Look for GT to give up more than 225 yards per game through the air.

 

OTHER

Tech’s special teams were not that special last year.  They had trouble covering punts, and there was virtually no help with punt returns.  Expected kick returner B. J. Bostic begins the season in street clothes and may be a medical redshirt.

 

SUMMARY

Georgia Tech led the nation in rushing with an averaged of 323 yards per game, and they could lead the nation again this season.  However, teams will put eight and nine in the box and force Tech to pass.  An option team needs to be able to average over eight yards per pass attempt to scare defenses into staying honest; Tech averaged just 6.5 yards and will more than likely do no better this year.  It adds up to some stagnation on offense, so we do not see the Yellow Jackets equaling their offensive production of 2010 (26 points and 407 yards).

 

Defense is going to be a sore spot, and second year coordinator Al Groh has a short fuse that could cause some dissension if early problems develop.  We do not like the prospects for this program in 2011.

 

Only an easy September schedule could save the season.  GT hosts Western Carolina to start the season and then visits Middle Tennessee.  They return to host Kansas and North Carolina to close out the month.  The Jackets need to be 4-0 if they plan on going to a bowl game, because the schedule is tough once October arrives.  If GT starts 2-2, then they will finish with four or five wins.

 

2011 Atlantic Coast Conference Media Poll

Team

1st Place Votes

Points

Atlantic Division

 

 

Florida State

65

420

Clemson

4

286

N. C. State

 

270

Boston College

2

224

Maryland

 

211

Wake Forest

 

80

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

Virginia Tech

66

421

Miami

4

328

North Carolina

 

287

Georgia Tech

1

226

Virginia

 

132

Duke

 

96

 

 

 

ACC Championship

 

Florida State

 

50

Virginia Tech

 

18

Clemson

 

2

Boston College

 

1

 

 

2011 Big East Conference PiRate Ratings

Team

PiRate #

Prediction

Atlantic Division

 

 

Florida St.

123.3

8-0/13-0 *

Clemson

110.3

5-3/8-4

Boston Coll.

109.7

3-5/6-6

N.C. State

109.1

4-4/7-5

Maryland

106.5

4-4/6-6

Wake Forest

98.5

1-7/3-9

   

 

Coastal Division  

 

Va. Tech

116.1

8-0/12-1

Miami

115.2

3-5/5-7 ^

N. Carolina

106.8

4-4/7-5

Duke

99.8

3-5/6-6

Virginia

97.9

2-6/4-8

Georgia Tech

97.5

3-5/6-6

   

 

* Florida State picked to beat Va. Tech
in the ACC Championship Game

 

 

 

 

^ This prediction based on possibility of 12
to 15 players being declared ineligible.
If they play, Miami is picked to win 9 games.

 

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