The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 14, 2022

PiRate Picks For September 16-17, 2022

That broken clock finally failed to show the correct time on the PiRate Ship. Last week, our five picks came in at 1-4, dropping our profit for the season to $1,211.77 ($1,311.77 left in the imaginary account).

We’re back to where we normally are in September. Usually, when we have a bad week, our saving grace in the past has been Money Line Parlays playing at +140 or higher odds. We had a tough time finding one really good parlay this week. While we like odds in the range of +140 to +180, we couldn’t find the right number of games to make this range work out. We also don’t like to play more than three games in a parlay, so it came down to going with 3 at more than +200 or go to five bigger favorites to get to +155 and change.

We also tend to like to play an odd number of games to eliminate the .500 record that results in a small loss. Of course, when one of those selections is a parlay that pays different than the straight 11-10 odds, a .500 record could be a winning week if one of those wins is the parlay.

Our selections this week are all about the numbers more than the actual teams playing. Without further adieu, here are our selections for the week. Remember: We never wager real money on our picks, and we highly suggest that you follow our lead.

Selection 1: Wyoming +14 1/2 vs. Air Force

This is a nice rivalry game, and the last time the margin of this game exceeded 14 points was 2013. Wyoming’s schedule has been considerably stronger than Air Force’s, as Illinois and Tulsa are both stronger than Colorado. Craig Bohl teams tend to be stronger against the run than the pass, so this looks like a good play to be on the side where the top four margins by frequency come with it (3, 7, 10, and 14 points represent the final margin in 1/4 of all college football games).

Selection #2: Wyoming & Air Force Under 46 1/2

For the same reasons above, this game appeals to us for the total. We think this game is more like a 20-17 game, which falls well under 46 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Maryland -2 1/2 vs. SMU

The PiRates really prefer to go with underdogs that we believe should be favorites, but there were no short ‘dogs this week that really jumped off the page. We believe that Maryland is better than a touchdown stronger than SMU. Game outcomes of 1 and 2 points occur just 5.9% of the time, and that includes 5.9% of the time that the favorite and the underdog win by 1 or 2.

Selection #4: Northern Illinois -2 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

Ditto the game above. Except, Vanderbilt exposed itself by showing its real weakness last week against Wake Forest. The Huskies were somewhat shocked by Tulsa in week one, but they should rebound in week two.

Selection #5: Nebraska and Oklahoma Under 66 1/2

What do you get when you combine a defensive genius head coach coaching in his third ever game against a big rival with a coach making his debut when a few days ago, he was an assistant coach? Usually, you get a hard-fought game that tends to be a little more defense-oriented. The Cornhuskers should play their best game of the season for interim coach Mickey Joseph, while the Sooners may play it a bit more conservatively. An OU win similar to last year’s game, which ended with 39 total points scored.

Selection #6: California and Notre Dame Over 40 1/2

Notre Dame last started a season 0-3 in 2007. Before Irish fans jump out of buildings, they were 0-2 in 2011 with a loss to a weak South Florida team and proceeded to win eight of their next nine games. Cal isn’t the best defensive team in the land, even though the Bears are only giving up 13.5 points per game so far. UC-Davis and UNLV are not offensive juggernauts.

If this game ends 21-20, it beats the total by a half-point. Notre Dame and Marshall combined for 47 points, and Cal’s offense is better than Marshall’s.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay at +204.42

Penn State over Auburn

Texas A&M over Miami (Fla.)

North Carolina St. over Texas Tech

Auburn barely beat a mediocre San Jose State team last week. A weaker Penn State team than this year’s squad defeated a stronger Auburn team than this year’s squad last year.

If Texas A&M loses again this week, Jimbo Fisher might be sharing a beer with Scott Frost the following Saturday somewhere outside of a football stadium.

Texas Tech’s win over Houston is getting a lot more accolades than it probably should have gotten. N.C. State’s narrow escape over East Carolina probably got too much as well. This is still a Wolf Pack team capable of winning the ACC Title.

August 18, 2022

Big Ten Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am

Will the Big Ten Conference become the Big Billion? Rumors from multiple sources indicate that this league is on the precipice of signing a TV and media rights package that will be north of a billion dollars. This deal does not include Notre Dame. Should the Irish end up in this league, the Big Ten will dwarf even the SEC in money paid out per school.

USC and UCLA are set to join the league in two years. Whether other teams join as well is anybody’s guess.

Both divisions this year figure to have competitive races. Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to win the East and the league overall, but there are multiple teams capable of upsetting the Buckeyes. Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are strong once again, and it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that at least one of these contenders upsets the Buckeyes.

Maryland has an easy out of conference schedule and has a good chance to gain bowl eligibility. Rutgers and Indiana will bring up the rear.

In the West, five different teams could contend for the division title. Purdue has the benefit of avoiding Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State from the East. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are all about equal in talent this year, while Nebraska could finally return to the plus side of .500. Illinois and Northwestern are one or more excellent recruiting classes away from being contenders.

Big Ten Preseason PiRate Ratings

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.128.6126.6129.5128.2
Michigan123.6121.8123.4122.9
Michigan St.118.9117.3116.7117.6
Penn St.115.0114.5114.0114.5
Maryland110.2110.0109.7109.9
Indiana102.0101.499.0100.8
Rutgers101.3100.498.2100.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin118.0117.3117.0117.5
Iowa117.4115.9115.4116.2
Purdue116.7115.6114.9115.8
Minnesota113.6113.0114.0113.5
Nebraska110.1110.1109.0109.7
Illinois103.0103.6101.1102.5
Northwestern99.7100.897.799.4

Big Ten112.7112.0111.4112.0

Preseason Official Big Ten Media Poll

Votes
#East1st PlaceOverall
1Ohio St.36252
2Michigan0203
3Penn St.0169
4Michigan St.0162
5Maryland0104
6Rutgers060
7Indiana058

#West1st PlaceOverall
1Wisconsin31246
2Iowa3198
3Minnesota2162
4Purdue0153
5Nebraska0123
6Illinois065
7Northwestern061

ChampionshipOverall
Ohio St.36

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

EastConf.Overall
Ohio St.9-013-0
Michigan8-111-1
Penn St.6-38-4
Michigan St.6-39-3
Maryland3-66-6
Rutgers1-83-9
Indiana1-83-9

WestConf.Overall
Purdue7-210-3
Wisconsin6-39-3
Minnesota6-39-3
Iowa5-48-4
Nebraska4-56-6
Northwestern1-84-8
Illinois0-93-9

February 13, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 13, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
St. John’sConnecticut-3.7
Youngstown St.Robert Morris7.4
Wright St.Northern Kentucky5.2
PurdueMaryland14.8
MaineStony Brook-8.0
OaklandDetroit6.4
IonaMonmouth7.5
RiderSiena2.3
IllinoisNorthwestern9.8
Old DominionUAB-10.4
MilwaukeeGreen Bay3.7
QuinnipiacManhattan4.8
IowaNebraska16.9
UTEPMarshall6.8
Middle TennesseeCharlotte5.9
UNC GreensboroMercer5.1
Boise St.Colorado St.3.8
Loyola (Chi.)Northern Iowa8.2

Coming Tomorrow: Updated ratings in the morning and updated Bracketology in the afternoon.

January 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:30 am

Thursday, January 6, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
Loyola (Chi.)San Francisco5.1
IndianaOhio St.0.6
IllinoisMaryland10.9
WisconsinIowa0.8
CincinnatiSMU1.0
ColoradoWashington St.-0.7
BYUPacific19.4
UtahWashington9.1
CaliforniaUSC-7.1

October 20, 2021

PiRate Picks–October 21-23, 2021

What a minor difference a week made! After just missing on three big-payout parlays two weeks ago, we played the same strategy last week and made a minor splash thanks to the help of one long shot parlay that won and returned better than 3 to 1 odds. With another win at +187, we made a small profit last week, but large enough to turn our minor net loss for the season into a net gain of 2.3%.

Of course, as we say every week, our financial loss or gain is merely imaginary, as we are playing with imaginary funds that never run out but never accrue. This feature is presented just for fun, and we strongly urge you not to wager real money on what you read here, unless it merely validates your research.

This week presents the fewest number of games that met our criteria this year in any week. We could only go with four parlays of two teams apiece. None are major long shots, but they all top +120, which is the minimum odds we will play. Enjoy!

Date:

October 21-25

Odds:+187
Must WinOpponent
Central FloridaMemphis
Notre DameUSC

Odds:+147.40
Must WinOpponent
Eastern MichiganBowling Green
Kent St.Ohio U


Odds:+138.99
Must WinOpponent
San Jose St.UNLV
Ball St.Miami (O)


Odds:+131.08
Must WinOpponent
MinnesotaMaryland
TCUWest Virginia

March 22, 2021

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:59 am

Monday, March 22, 2021

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
GonzagaOklahoma16.0
CreightonOhio6.2
USCKansas2.2
IowaOregon6.5
MichiganLSU5.5
ColoradoFlorida St.1.1
UCLAAbilene Christian4.3
AlabamaMaryland6.0

March 3, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 am

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
La SalleSaint Joseph’s0.6
George WashingtonFordham4.3
TulaneWichita St.-4.5
SyracuseClemson0.8
Notre DameNC St.2.4
Florida St.Boston College14.9
Seton HallConnecticut0.2
St. John’sProvidence2.6
VillanovaCreighton1.6
Eastern WashingtonIdaho St.13.7
Penn St.Minnesota3.1
NorthwesternMaryland-2.6
North Carolina A&TSouth Carolina St.12.0
North Carolina CentralFlorida A&M0.4
Colorado St.New Mexico18.8
UNLVSan Diego St.-12.3
WagnerMerrimack6.1
BelmontSIU Edwardsville16.4
Morehead St.Southeast Missouri St.8.7
UtahOregon St.3.8
OregonUCLA2.4
USCStanford7.7
Boston ULehigh7.2
FloridaMissouri4.9
Texas A&MMississippi St.-3.7
Sam Houston St.Texas A&M-CC14.7
New OrleansNorthwestern St.3.0
Houston BaptistIncarnate Word0.4
Central ArkansasSoutheast Louisiana1.5
Stephen F. AustinAbilene Christian-3.1

February 28, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:58 am

Sunday, February 28, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
CincinnatiMemphis-4.1
HoustonSouth Florida18.8
NC StatePittsburgh3.3
New HampshireUMass Lowell0.8
HartfordAlbany2.8
ButlerVillanova-10.7
IdahoMontana St.-13.0
MarylandMichigan St.4.4
Ohio St.Iowa0.1
UTEPCharlotte5.0
Western KentuckyFlorida Intl.16.3
MaristQuinnipiac2.4
Delaware St.Coppin St.-5.8
South Carolina St.Florida A&M-10.4
Utah St.Nevada6.8
ArmyBoston University7.0
NavyLoyola (MD)6.4
AmericanBucknell1.2
LehighLafayette-4.2
Oral RobertsWestern Illinois10.3
South DakotaNorth Dakota St.0.9

Coming Monday–Updated ratings and Bracketology plus a first look at early conference tournament action, including some preliminary “Bracketnomics” data.

February 16, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

February 16, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
Rhode IslandDayton3.1
Saint LouisLa Salle14.1
TulsaTemple3.9
Oklahoma St.Iowa St.12.0
ConnecticutProvidence4.4
St. John’sXavier0.3
MarylandNebraska8.9
PurdueMichigan St.6.3
IllinoisNorthwestern11.8
GeorgiaMissouri-3.6
ArkansasFlorida2.8
Santa ClaraLoyola Marymount-0.7

February 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 14, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
CincinnatiCentral Florida3.5
South FloridaTulane5.1
SMUWichita St.4.9
Georgia TechPittsburgh3.5
Notre DameMiami (Fla.)8.0
Seton HallMarquette7.3
WisconsinMichigan-2.5
Penn St.Nebraska10.9
MarylandMinnesota0.1
Arizona St.Oregon St.5.1
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