The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 7, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 9-13, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Seattle -4.3 -4.5 -4.1 42
Washington Minnesota 1.7 1.6 1.6 44
Chicago Green Bay -0.7 -1.4 0.0 41
Indianapolis Pittsburgh -9.8 -9.7 -10.3 42
Jacksonville LA Chargers 3.4 3.6 3.4 44
Tampa Bay N. Y. Jets 4.4 4.9 3.8 43
Tennessee Cincinnati 3.8 2.9 3.7 40
Buffalo New Orleans -2.2 -1.1 -2.7 52
Detroit Cleveland 14.3 13.9 14.4 42
LA Rams Houston 6.2 5.7 7.0 48
Atlanta Dallas -0.7 0.1 -0.9 54
San Francisco N. Y. Giants -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 41
Denver New England -4.1 -4.8 -3.9 43
Carolina Miami 9.8 9.2 10.6 43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 105.7 105.1 105.3 22 6-2
Buffalo 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.0 22 5-3
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.9 95.5 20 4-5
Miami 94.4 94.4 94.0 94.3 20 4-4
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.7 105.9 105.9 105.9 19 6-2
Baltimore 102.3 102.9 102.1 102.4 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-5
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 18 0-8
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 22 5-3
Houston 99.2 99.3 98.9 99.1 24 3-5
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 5-3
Indianapolis 93.5 93.7 93.0 93.4 23 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.2 104.6 104.5 104.4 23 6-3
LA Chargers 101.9 101.6 101.9 101.8 22 3-5
Oakland 99.0 99.4 98.4 98.9 23 4-5
Denver 98.2 97.8 98.2 98.1 21 3-5
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.3 105.9 108.5 107.2 25 8-1
Dallas 105.9 105.2 106.0 105.7 26 5-3
Washington 99.7 99.6 99.9 99.7 26 4-4
N.Y. Giants 95.9 96.0 95.6 95.9 17 1-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.8 103.0 102.8 102.9 24 4-4
Minnesota 101.0 101.0 101.3 101.1 18 6-2
Green Bay 99.3 99.8 98.7 99.3 22 4-4
Chicago 96.0 96.0 96.2 96.1 19 3-5
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 105.1 104.2 105.8 105.0 30 6-2
Atlanta 102.2 102.3 102.2 102.2 28 4-4
Carolina 101.2 100.6 101.6 101.1 23 6-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.9 23 2-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 103.0 103.2 102.6 102.9 20 5-3
LA Rams 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 24 6-2
Arizona 95.7 95.7 95.5 95.6 22 4-4
San Francisco 90.4 90.5 90.1 90.3 24 0-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Buffalo
6 Tennessee
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Seattle
6 Dallas
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Tennessee
Jacksonville over Buffalo
New Orleans over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Seattle
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

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November 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Akron 3.4 2.9 4.0
Buffalo Bowling Green 6.0 7.5 7.6
Western Michigan Kent St. 26.9 24.5 27.6
Ohio U Toledo -6.2 -5.0 -6.7
Central Michigan Eastern Michigan -1.4 -0.4 -1.4
Northern Illinois Ball St. 29.3 27.1 29.4
Appalachian St. Georgia Southern 21.7 19.1 22.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina 8.3 9.0 9.1
Cincinnati Temple -3.0 -1.6 -1.7
Stanford Washington -7.5 -6.1 -8.7
UNLV BYU 1.1 3.0 1.8
Maryland Michigan -11.6 -10.3 -11.2
South Carolina Florida 5.6 5.2 5.6
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech -2.9 -4.7 -4.6
East Carolina Tulane -8.2 -7.2 -8.6
Boston College North Carolina St. -4.0 -3.5 -4.1
Central Florida Connecticut 31.9 31.3 32.9
Syracuse Wake Forest 6.1 5.9 5.5
Penn St. Rutgers 33.0 31.3 34.0
Army Duke -3.3 -2.6 -1.4
Ohio St. Michigan St. 27.2 23.8 25.9
Illinois Indiana -11.6 -10.6 -13.1
Coastal Carolina Troy -22.2 -21.2 -20.8
Charlotte Middle Tennessee -11.2 -10.1 -11.6
Air Force Wyoming -2.0 -0.3 -0.7
Nevada San Jose St. 16.2 17.7 18.4
Baylor Texas Tech -2.2 -0.8 -1.1
Kansas St. West Virginia 3.1 2.6 2.6
Oklahoma TCU 6.6 7.2 6.7
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. -7.4 -6.6 -7.0
Louisville Virginia 13.1 13.0 12.7
Miami (Fla.) Notre Dame 3.1 2.6 1.6
Navy SMU 4.9 5.4 4.6
Utah Washington St. -7.0 -3.8 -6.8
Northwestern Purdue 10.4 9.3 10.2
Ole Miss Louisiana-Lafayette 25.1 22.2 23.6
Minnesota Nebraska 4.0 4.2 4.0
Mississippi St. Alabama -22.3 -17.9 -20.8
Louisiana Tech Florida Atlantic -5.0 -5.3 -5.9
Rice Southern Miss. -9.8 -9.5 -10.0
Colorado USC -9.7 -10.5 -11.7
Wisconsin Iowa 10.0 6.9 8.8
Auburn Georgia 1.0 -1.2 0.8
Missouri Tennessee 5.4 5.1 6.5
Texas A&M New Mexico 22.7 20.9 21.3
UCLA Arizona St. -1.0 -0.5 -1.5
Vanderbilt Kentucky -1.7 -1.5 -1.8
South Alabama Arkansas St. -8.4 -7.0 -10.0
Texas St. Georgia St. -8.3 -6.0 -9.0
North Texas UTEP 15.8 14.6 16.5
Texas Kansas 37.7 34.6 39.5
Marshall Western Kentucky 3.7 5.0 4.7
Florida Int’l. Old Dominion 8.9 6.6 9.9
UTSA UAB 15.0 14.0 14.0
Clemson Florida St. 14.4 12.8 15.3
LSU Arkansas 21.2 19.9 22.5
Arizona Oregon St. 16.3 15.0 16.8
Colorado St. Boise St. -2.2 -1.7 -2.6
Hawaii Fresno St. -6.3 -4.5 -7.0

The PiRate Ratings

Retro Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 Wisconsin
6 Miami (Fla)
7 Oklahoma
8 Penn St.
9 Central Florida
10 Ohio St.
11 Washington
12 TCU
13 USC
14 Auburn
15 Oklahoma St.
16 Michigan St.
17 Virginia Tech
18 Michigan
19 Iowa
20 Mississippi St.
21 Memphis
22 Washington St.
23 Iowa St.
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 Stanford
27 LSU
28 Toledo
29 Northwestern
30 South Florida
31 Boston College
32 Arizona
33 South Carolina
34 Wake Forest
35 West Virginia
36 San Diego St.
37 Arizona St.
38 Georgia Tech
39 Houston
40 Texas
41 Texas A&M
42 SMU
43 Oregon
44 Navy
45 Louisville
46 Florida St.
47 Syracuse
48 Florida Atlantic
49 Utah
50 Virginia
51 Northern Illinois
52 Texas Tech
53 Kentucky
54 Army
55 Troy
56 California
57 Fresno St.
58 Purdue
59 Kansas St.
60 Pittsburgh
61 Nebraska
62 UCLA
63 Marshall
64 Maryland
65 Wyoming
66 Ohio
67 Arkansas St.
68 Florida
69 Colorado
70 Missouri
71 Duke
72 Minnesota
73 Indiana
74 Tennessee
75 Colorado St.
76 Ole Miss
77 Florida Int’l.
78 North Texas
79 Western Michigan
80 Akron
81 Rutgers
82 Arkansas
83 Vanderbilt
84 Utah St.
85 Temple
86 Central Michigan
87 UAB
88 Air Force
89 Eastern Michigan
90 Tulane
91 UTSA
92 Southern Miss.
93 Cincinnati
94 Appalachian St.
95 Georgia St.
96 Louisiana Tech
97 UNLV
98 Middle Tennessee
99 North Carolina
100 Western Kentucky
101 Buffalo
102 Tulsa
103 Miami (O)
104 New Mexico St.
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 New Mexico
109 UL-Monroe
110 East Carolina
111 Oregon St.
112 South Alabama
113 UL-Lafayette
114 Bowling Green
115 BYU
116 Idaho
117 Nevada
118 Old Dominion
119 Massachusetts
120 Kent St.
121 Hawaii
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 San Jose St.
129 UTEP
130 Georgia Southern

PiRate Predictive Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.2 134.2 136.9 136.4
2 Ohio St. 130.9 128.5 131.0 130.1
3 Georgia 128.4 128.5 128.7 128.5
4 Washington 128.9 126.1 129.3 128.1
5 Clemson 127.8 125.3 127.3 126.8
6 Penn St. 127.1 125.3 127.8 126.7
7 Auburn 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
8 Oklahoma 123.5 122.3 124.1 123.3
9 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
10 Notre Dame 122.2 120.8 122.9 121.9
11 Miami 122.3 120.4 121.5 121.4
12 Virginia Tech 120.6 119.9 120.8 120.4
13 Wisconsin 121.6 118.8 120.1 120.2
14 T C U 119.9 118.1 120.4 119.4
15 U S C 119.2 118.4 119.1 118.9
16 Stanford 118.4 117.0 117.6 117.7
17 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
18 L S U 117.0 114.9 117.6 116.5
19 Florida St. 116.4 115.5 114.9 115.6
20 Texas 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9
21 Iowa 114.6 114.9 114.3 114.6
22 Michigan 114.3 114.3 113.4 114.0
23 Washington St. 114.8 112.5 114.4 113.9
24 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.0 113.8
25 Georgia Tech 114.7 112.2 113.2 113.4
26 Mississippi St. 112.9 113.3 113.1 113.1
27 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
28 Louisville 112.1 111.2 111.9 111.7
29 Syracuse 112.2 110.5 111.6 111.4
30 West Virginia 110.3 110.8 110.7 110.6
31 Kansas St. 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
32 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 South Florida 109.8 108.7 110.4 109.6
35 Wake Forest 109.2 107.5 109.1 108.6
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Memphis 108.5 107.8 109.1 108.4
38 Arizona 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
39 Michigan St. 106.7 107.7 108.1 107.5
40 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
41 Pittsburgh 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4
42 Texas A&M 107.1 105.1 106.3 106.2
43 Arizona St. 106.6 105.6 106.3 106.2
44 Florida 106.5 105.9 105.7 106.0
45 Kentucky 106.7 105.7 105.6 106.0
46 Duke 106.6 105.9 105.3 105.9
47 Oregon 106.5 104.7 105.6 105.6
48 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.4 105.3
49 Missouri 106.0 104.1 105.3 105.1
50 Utah 104.8 105.7 104.6 105.0
51 Toledo 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
52 Ole Miss 105.0 103.5 103.6 104.0
53 Texas Tech 103.9 103.8 103.1 103.6
54 California 104.5 102.4 102.6 103.2
55 Indiana 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.2
56 Houston 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.0
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 Tennessee 103.6 102.0 101.8 102.5
59 Minnesota 102.4 103.3 101.6 102.4
60 U C L A 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.2
61 San Diego St. 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.3 101.8
63 Virginia 102.0 101.2 102.1 101.8
64 Colo. State 101.8 100.8 101.6 101.4
65 Nebraska 101.3 102.1 100.6 101.3
66 Navy 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.7
67 N. Carolina 101.2 100.3 100.1 100.5
68 Army 100.3 100.3 100.9 100.5
69 Maryland 99.7 101.0 99.2 99.9
70 Baylor 98.7 100.1 99.0 99.3
71 SMU 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.7
72 Wyoming 99.3 98.0 98.3 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.0 98.0 98.3
74 Western Michigan 97.7 96.7 98.6 97.7
75 Eastern Michigan 97.2 96.9 97.8 97.3
76 Rutgers 97.1 97.0 96.8 97.0
77 Florida Atlantic 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
78 Arkansas St. 95.8 96.7 97.3 96.6
79 Ohio U 95.5 96.6 96.6 96.2
80 Troy 95.1 95.3 94.5 95.0
81 Oregon St. 95.5 95.2 94.1 94.9
82 Fresno St. 94.7 93.9 95.2 94.6
83 Air Force 94.2 94.7 94.6 94.5
84 Tulsa 94.6 94.4 94.1 94.4
85 Northern Illinois 94.1 94.0 95.0 94.3
86 Temple 94.0 94.4 94.1 94.2
87 Central Michigan 93.3 94.0 93.9 93.7
88 Tulane 92.9 93.3 93.1 93.1
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
91 U T S A 91.0 93.1 92.0 92.0
92 Utah St. 92.3 91.5 91.9 91.9
93 W. Kentucky 90.9 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Massachusetts 90.2 89.4 90.5 90.0
95 Cincinnati 88.5 90.2 89.9 89.5
96 Miami (O) 88.1 90.2 89.3 89.2
97 BYU 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.9
98 Illinois 88.9 90.0 87.8 88.9
99 Louisiana Tech 87.6 89.4 88.2 88.4
100 Akron 87.3 89.7 87.8 88.3
101 Florida Int’l. 87.7 87.9 88.8 88.2
102 U N L V 87.3 88.9 87.5 87.9
103 Nevada 86.2 88.0 87.5 87.2
104 New Mexico 86.9 86.7 87.5 87.0
105 N. Mexico St. 87.4 85.8 87.7 87.0
106 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.4 86.8
107 Middle Tennessee 86.1 87.3 86.9 86.8
108 Hawaii 84.9 85.9 84.7 85.2
109 S. Alabama 84.4 86.7 84.3 85.1
110 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
111 Connecticut 84.0 86.0 84.1 84.7
112 N. Texas 83.9 85.5 84.6 84.7
113 Georgia St. 84.1 83.9 84.1 84.1
114 UL-Lafayette 82.4 83.8 82.5 82.9
115 Old Dominion 81.8 84.4 81.9 82.7
116 East Carolina 82.2 83.7 82.0 82.6
117 Bowling Green 81.9 82.8 82.3 82.3
118 UL-Monroe 82.3 83.1 81.5 82.3
119 Idaho 80.9 82.0 81.7 81.5
120 UAB 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.7
121 Kansas 79.9 83.3 78.6 80.6
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.3 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.3 75.4 72.6 73.8
125 Charlotte 72.4 74.7 72.7 73.3
126 San Jose St. 73.0 73.3 72.1 72.8
127 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
128 U T E P 71.0 73.9 71.1 72.0
129 Coastal Carolina 70.8 72.2 71.7 71.6
130 Ball St. 67.8 69.8 68.6 68.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 5-0 8-0 112.9 114.3 114.0 113.8
South Florida 5-1 8-1 109.8 108.7 110.4 109.6
Temple 2-3 4-5 94.0 94.4 94.1 94.2
Cincinnati 1-4 3-6 88.5 90.2 89.9 89.5
Connecticut 2-4 3-6 84.0 86.0 84.1 84.7
East Carolina 1-4 2-7 82.2 83.7 82.0 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.5 107.8 109.1 108.4
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.0
Navy 3-3 5-3 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.7
SMU 3-2 6-3 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.6 94.4 94.1 94.4
Tulane 1-4 3-6 92.9 93.3 93.1 93.1
             
AAC Averages     97.4 97.9 97.8 97.7
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 6-1 8-1 127.8 125.3 127.3 126.8
N. Carolina St. 4-1 6-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-4 3-5 116.4 115.5 114.9 115.6
Louisville 2-4 5-4 112.1 111.2 111.9 111.7
Syracuse 2-3 4-5 112.2 110.5 111.6 111.4
Boston College 3-3 5-4 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Wake Forest 2-3 5-4 109.2 107.5 109.1 108.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 8-0 122.3 120.4 121.5 121.4
Virginia Tech 3-2 7-2 120.6 119.9 120.8 120.4
Georgia Tech 3-3 4-4 114.7 112.2 113.2 113.4
Pittsburgh 2-3 4-5 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4
Duke 1-5 4-5 106.6 105.9 105.3 105.9
Virginia 3-2 6-3 102.0 101.2 102.1 101.8
N. Carolina 0-6 1-8 101.2 100.3 100.1 100.5
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 5-1 8-1 123.5 122.3 124.1 123.3
Oklahoma St. 4-2 7-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-1 8-1 119.9 118.1 120.4 119.4
Texas 3-3 4-5 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9
Iowa State 4-2 5-4 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
West Virginia 4-2 6-3 110.3 110.8 110.7 110.6
Kansas St. 3-3 5-4 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
Texas Tech 1-5 4-5 103.9 103.8 103.1 103.6
Baylor 1-5 1-8 98.7 100.1 99.0 99.3
Kansas 0-6 1-8 79.9 83.3 78.6 80.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-1 7-2 130.9 128.5 131.0 130.1
Penn St. 4-2 7-2 127.1 125.3 127.8 126.7
Michigan 4-2 7-2 114.3 114.3 113.4 114.0
Michigan St. 5-1 7-2 106.7 107.7 108.1 107.5
Indiana 0-6 3-6 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.2
Maryland 2-4 4-5 99.7 101.0 99.2 99.9
Rutgers 3-3 4-5 97.1 97.0 96.8 97.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 6-0 9-0 121.6 118.8 120.1 120.2
Iowa 3-3 6-3 114.6 114.9 114.3 114.6
Northwestern 4-2 6-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Purdue 2-4 4-5 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Minnesota 1-5 4-5 102.4 103.3 101.6 102.4
Nebraska 3-3 4-5 101.3 102.1 100.6 101.3
Illinois 0-6 2-7 88.9 90.0 87.8 88.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 5-0 6-3 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
Marshall 3-2 6-3 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
W. Kentucky 3-2 5-4 90.9 90.9 91.7 91.2
Florida Int’l. 4-1 6-2 87.7 87.9 88.8 88.2
Middle Tennessee 2-3 4-5 86.1 87.3 86.9 86.8
Old Dominion 1-4 3-6 81.8 84.4 81.9 82.7
Charlotte 1-4 1-8 72.4 74.7 72.7 73.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-3 5-3 91.0 93.1 92.0 92.0
Louisiana Tech 2-3 4-5 87.6 89.4 88.2 88.4
Southern Miss. 3-2 5-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
N. Texas 5-1 6-3 83.9 85.5 84.6 84.7
UAB 4-2 6-3 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.7
Rice 1-4 1-8 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-5 0-9 71.0 73.9 71.1 72.0
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-1 122.2 120.8 122.9 121.9
Army   7-2 100.3 100.3 100.9 100.5
Massachusetts   2-7 90.2 89.4 90.5 90.0
BYU   2-8 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.9
             
Indep. Averages     100.5 99.9 100.7 100.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 4-1 7-2 95.5 96.6 96.6 96.2
Miami (O) 2-3 3-6 88.1 90.2 89.3 89.2
Akron 4-1 5-4 87.3 89.7 87.8 88.3
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 85.4 87.7 87.4 86.8
Bowling Green 2-3 2-7 81.9 82.8 82.3 82.3
Kent St. 1-4 2-7 73.7 75.3 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-0 8-1 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
Western Michigan 3-2 5-4 97.7 96.7 98.6 97.7
Eastern Michigan 1-4 3-6 97.2 96.9 97.8 97.3
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 94.1 94.0 95.0 94.3
Central Michigan 3-2 5-4 93.3 94.0 93.9 93.7
Ball St. 0-5 2-7 67.8 69.8 68.6 68.7
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 5-0 7-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-2 6-4 101.8 100.8 101.6 101.4
Wyoming 4-1 6-3 99.3 98.0 98.3 98.5
Air Force 3-2 4-5 94.2 94.7 94.6 94.5
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.3 91.5 91.9 91.9
New Mexico 1-5 3-6 86.9 86.7 87.5 87.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.0
Fresno St. 4-1 6-3 94.7 93.9 95.2 94.6
U N L V 3-3 4-5 87.3 88.9 87.5 87.9
Nevada 1-4 1-8 86.2 88.0 87.5 87.2
Hawaii 1-5 3-6 84.9 85.9 84.7 85.2
San Jose St. 0-5 1-9 73.0 73.3 72.1 72.8
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.4 92.6 92.5
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-1 8-1 128.9 126.1 129.3 128.1
Stanford 5-2 6-3 118.4 117.0 117.6 117.7
Washington St. 4-2 7-2 114.8 112.5 114.4 113.9
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.5 104.7 105.6 105.6
California 2-5 5-5 104.5 102.4 102.6 103.2
Oregon St. 0-6 1-8 95.5 95.2 94.1 94.9
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 6-1 8-2 119.2 118.4 119.1 118.9
Arizona 4-2 6-3 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
Arizona St. 4-2 5-4 106.6 105.6 106.3 106.2
Colorado 2-5 5-5 106.5 105.0 104.4 105.3
Utah 2-4 5-4 104.8 105.7 104.6 105.0
U C L A 2-4 4-5 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-0 9-0 128.4 128.5 128.7 128.5
S. Carolina 4-3 6-3 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
Florida 3-4 3-5 106.5 105.9 105.7 106.0
Kentucky 3-3 6-3 106.7 105.7 105.6 106.0
Missouri 1-4 4-5 106.0 104.1 105.3 105.1
Tennessee 0-5 4-5 103.6 102.0 101.8 102.5
Vanderbilt 0-5 4-5 102.5 101.7 101.3 101.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 6-0 9-0 138.2 134.2 136.9 136.4
Auburn 5-1 7-2 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
L S U 3-2 6-3 117.0 114.9 117.6 116.5
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 112.9 113.3 113.1 113.1
Texas A&M 3-3 5-4 107.1 105.1 106.3 106.2
Ole Miss 2-4 4-5 105.0 103.5 103.6 104.0
Arkansas 1-4 4-5 98.8 98.0 98.0 98.3
             
SEC Averages     112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-2 95.8 96.7 97.3 96.6
Troy 4-1 7-2 95.1 95.3 94.5 95.0
Appalachian St. 4-1 5-4 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
N. Mexico St. 2-3 4-5 87.4 85.8 87.7 87.0
S. Alabama 2-3 3-6 84.4 86.7 84.3 85.1
Georgia St. 4-1 5-3 84.1 83.9 84.1 84.1
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-4 82.4 83.8 82.5 82.9
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-5 82.3 83.1 81.5 82.3
Idaho 2-3 3-6 80.9 82.0 81.7 81.5
Georgia Southern 0-4 0-8 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
Texas St. 1-4 2-7 73.3 75.4 72.6 73.8
Coastal Carolina 0-5 1-8 70.8 72.2 71.7 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.7 84.4 83.7 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.4 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 100.5 99.9 100.7 100.4
7 AAC 97.4 97.9 97.8 97.7
8 MWC 92.4 92.4 92.6 92.5
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.7 84.4 83.7 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Int’l. UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 San Diego St. Utah
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Wyoming
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Fla. Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Georgia St.] Southern Miss.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Cincinnati [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [California]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Boise St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UNLV] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Western Ky.] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Stanford
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Fresno St.] Washington St.
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy [Miami (O)]
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Arizona St.
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 NC State Auburn
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Colorado St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville LSU
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC TCU
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Ohio St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Clemson Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Georgia Notre Dame
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

A Great Weekend Ahead

After looking at the schedule for this week, the folks at the sports networks could call this one, “moving week.” There are numerous games where teams in contention for a playoff spot are facing tough, sometimes trap games. There are a host of games where the winner will stay in bowl contention, while fans of the loser can start thinking about basketball season, which begins this Friday.

Then, there is another interesting phenomenon. There are a host of teams that have six losses and must win out to get to 6-6 and get into a bowl. Most will lose again to fall out of the bowl picture, but until they get to seven losses, these teams will bring their A-games to the field. What that means is that a 3-6 team that is a 15-point underdog to a 6-3 team that is already bowl eligible but has no chance to win a division or conference might be ready to play its best game of the year and maybe pull off the upset. Even if they lose to go to 3-7, they might make it a close game and lose by single digits.

Here’s a look at the interesting games.
Game Involving Playoff Contenders Against Each Other
Notre Dame at Miami (Fla.)
The winner of this game takes a major step forward toward earning one of the magic four spots in the playoffs. The Irish have a home game with Notre Dame and a road game against Stanford remaining, while the Hurricanes have a home game with Virginia, and a road game against Pittsburgh (as well as needing to win the ACC Championship Game).

Games Important In Deciding Conference or Division Winner
Akron at Miami (O) & Toledo at Ohio U

Akron and Ohio are currently tied for the MAC East lead at 4-1. Miami (O) has 6 losses and must win out to become bowl eligible, while Toledo is still in contention for a New Year’s 6 Bowl if the Rockets win out and get help from other teams beating UCF, USF, and Memphis.

Washington at Stanford

Washington currently leads Stanford by a half game and Washington St. by a full game in the Pac-12 North.

Michigan St. at Ohio St.

Both teams are 5-1 in the Big Ten East and most likely out of playoff contention. The winner hasn’t wrapped up the division yet, as Michigan and Penn State are both one game back at 4-2.

TCU at Oklahoma
Both teams are 5-1 and tied for first in the Big 12. The winner almost assuredly makes the Big 12 Championship Game, while the loser will have to fight it out with Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. for the second spot.

Iowa St. at Oklahoma St.
Both teams are 4-2, and the winner stays in contention for second place, which in this league gets you into the Championship Game (WVU is also 4-2).

Potential Trap Games For Playoff Contenders
Alabama at Mississippi St.
Georgia at Auburn
The nation’s top two teams have trap games this week. Alabama had a tough home game with LSU and lost several key defensive players to injury. Plus, in the past five years, the teams that have upset the Crimson Tide have had top notch dual threat quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat quarterback.

Georgia beat South Carolina, and the Bulldogs were in control of the game with not much doubt of losing, but Coach Kirby Smart did not get the opportunity to empty his bench and rest his regulars. Now, the Bulldogs play at Auburn, where the Tigers are still in contention in the SEC West, but only if they beat Georgia.

Must Win Out To Stay In Bowl Contention
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan has six losses and must win out to become bowl eligible. The Eagles have winnable games with Miami (O) and Bowling Green remaining on their schedule, a CMU (5-4) loss could put the Chippewas in Jeopardy of getting to six wins.

Michigan at Maryland
Maryland is now 4-5 after losing to Rutgers, and this looks like loss number six. With remaining games against Michigan State in East Lansing and Penn State at home, the Terrapins have little chance of going 2-1 and getting to 6-6, but they aren’t eliminated yet. Michigan can still win the East Division, but they Wolverines must win out, including games against Wisconsin and Ohio St.

Florida at South Carolina
Florida has just five losses, but the Gators only play 11 games due to the hurricane earlier this year. Interim coach Randy Shannon fared little better than Jim McElwain, losing big to Missouri, so the chances of Florida winning out against South Carolina, UAB, and Florida St. are close to nil. Even the UAB game might be tough to win.

Indiana at Illinois
Indiana had a lot of near misses this year. The Hoosiers have some talented players, but their depth is not up to par with the teams ahead in the Big Ten East. Indiana sits at 3-6 and must win out against Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue. It’s possible, but the way the Boilermakers are playing, we believe Purdue will get revenge for their near miss last year.

Arkansas St. at South Alabama
South Alabama is 3-6 needs a big upset over 4-0/5-2 Arkansas St. and then must win on the road against winless Georgia Southern and a New Mexico St. team that most likely would also be playing for bowl contention. Coach Joey Jones has taken the Jaguars to multiple bowls in the past, but this year is looking bleak.

Florida St. at Clemson
Florida St. is in the same boat as rival Florida. The Seminoles have had their season turned upside down, losing a game to the hurricane as well as a quarterback very early in the season. The Seminoles must pull the playoff-destroying upset of Clemson to have a chance to make the season-ender with Florida meaningful. We will give FSU the win over Delaware St. on November 18.
Late Note–FSU may be able to reschedule their cancelled game with Louisiana-Monroe at the end of the regular season, so the Seminoles could still possibly get to 6-6 with wins over Delaware St., Florida, and UL-Monroe.

Probable Bowl Eliminator Games
Temple at Cincinnati
Temple is 4-5, while Cincinnati is 3-6. Obviously, the Bearcats must win out (East Carolina and UConn after TU). Temple was not really in contention for a bowl until the Owls thumped Navy. With Central Florida to follow this game, if TU loses to fall to 4-6, you can almost completely toss the Owls out of the bowl picture. But if TU wins this game to square their record at 5-5, then the Owls would have a chance to finish 6-6 by defeating Tulsa.

Wake Forest at Syracuse
Wake Forest is 5-4 and Syracuse is 4-5. The loser of this game technically can still make a bowl, but scheduling will make it very difficult. If the Demon Deacons win this game, they are bowl eligible, while a Syracuse win would mean the Orangemen would still have to beat either Louisville or Boston College.

Nebraska at Minnesota
Truth be told, we do not believe the winner of this game will win another game this year, so the 5-5 victor will most likely fall to 5-7. Nebraska must still play Penn St. and Iowa, while Minnesota has Northwestern and Wisconsin remaining.

Tennessee at Missouri
These two 4-5 teams are going in opposite directions. Missouri was expected to go 0-8 in the conference, while Tennessee was expected to compete for a division flag this year. Instead, the Tigers are two wins away from sneaking into a bowl with three winnable games left on their schedule. We feel Mizzou will win at least two if not all three and earn a bowl trip, while Tennessee will have a hard time getting their fifth win.

Can Get Into Bowl Contention With Win
BYU at UNLV
UNLV was not in the bowl picture until just two weeks ago, but now the Rebels have won consecutive games to improve to 4-5. The Rebels absolutely must win this game to get to 5-5 before finishing with road games against New Mexico and Nevada. At 5-5, they should be able to pick up one more win.

In Jeopardy of Missing Bowl With Loss
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is another team relegated to playing 11 games due to the hurricane. At 4-4, the Yellow Jackets need to finish 2-1 and will play at Duke before hosting Georgia. It’s not likely to happen for Paul Johnson this year.

Texas Tech at Baylor
Texas Tech has fallen to 4-5 and must finish 2-1 with closing games with TCU and Texas. Baylor finally won a game last week against lowly Kansas, but sometimes when a team opens the year with many losses before winning their first game, the next game turns out to be the best one they play. TTU needs to be prepared for an ambush in Waco this week. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s seat is simmering hot, and a loss in this game most likely sends him into unemployment. Even a win in this one might just delay the firing by a few weeks.

USC at Colorado
Colorado is 5-5 with a road game at Utah to follow this one. The Buffalos may have a better chance of upsetting the Trojans in Boulder than winning in SLC.

Arizona St. at UCLA
UCLA is 4-5 and has the combination of key injuries and team dissension. Coach Jim Mora, Jr. is more than likely not going to return as coach, especially with Chip Kelly available and with a supposed desire to coach on the West Coast. The Bruins have remaining games with USC and Cal, and it doesn’t look promising that the sons of Westwood will win two of these three.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 4-5 and must win two of three with games against Missouri and Tennessee following this one. The Missouri game now appears to be quite difficult, while Kentucky is playing for one of the top second tier bowls like the Outback and Taxslayer. Vanderbilt’s defense may have a hard time holding the Wildcats under 30 points and the Tigers under 40, so it could be 5-7 or 4-8 for the Commodores, unless they pull off the upset in this one.

Arkansas at LSU
Arkansas is in the same boat with Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri (all 4-5). The Razorbacks narrowly defeated one of the nation’s weakest FBS team in Coastal Carolina, so expecting Arky to win two of their final three (Mississippi St. & Missouri) is quite a stretch. The chance that Coach Bret Bielema will return in Fayetteville is a much larger stretch.

 

 

October 9, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 11-14, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:14 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Troy South Alabama 15.8 13.1 15.4
Louisiana-Lafayette Texas St. 17.0 15.8 18.4
Syracuse Clemson -19.2 -18.2 -19.4
California Washington St. -16.5 -16.4 -17.8
Army Eastern Michigan 5.6 6.2 6.2
Temple Connecticut 14.9 12.3 15.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina St. -9.6 -8.6 -10.5
West Virginia Texas Tech 5.3 6.2 6.1
Tennessee South Carolina 0.0 -0.8 -0.9
Kansas St. TCU -2.2 0.0 -2.5
Illinois Rutgers -2.2 -0.8 -2.7
Iowa St. Kansas 25.1 22.6 26.9
Mississippi St. BYU 17.1 18.5 17.3
Indiana Michigan -6.7 -6.6 -5.7
Louisville Boston College 18.4 17.2 18.6
Air Force UNLV 8.9 7.0 9.1
Marshall Old Dominion 7.0 5.6 8.4
Oklahoma St. Baylor 24.4 21.1 25.2
Maryland Northwestern -4.9 -1.1 -4.9
Kent St. Miami (O) -8.4 -8.9 -9.2
Bowling Green Ohio U -6.3 -6.9 -6.2
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 0.6 0.0 -0.2
Wisconsin Purdue 23.0 17.8 20.8
North Carolina Virginia 4.2 3.7 1.3
Central Michigan Toledo -7.5 -6.7 -8.2
Buffalo Northern Illinois -2.7 -0.1 -1.2
Oklahoma (N) Texas 8.6 6.5 8.7
Western Michigan Akron 19.8 15.3 20.8
Miami (Fla.) Georgia Tech 9.3 9.3 10.7
Duke Florida St. -12.5 -12.3 -12.6
Florida Texas A&M 10.1 11.3 10.4
Alabama Arkansas 39.1 34.8 38.6
LSU Auburn -11.4 -10.7 -10.9
Memphis Navy 6.5 5.0 6.8
Tulsa Houston -8.1 -7.3 -8.7
Oregon St. Colorado -13.6 -12.1 -12.8
Utah St. Wyoming 0.0 0.2 0.7
Western Kentucky Charlotte 22.6 19.6 22.9
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia St. 0.1 1.4 -0.9
Idaho Appalachian St. -12.9 -8.4 -12.5
Georgia Southern New Mexico St. -7.4 -4.0 -7.9
UAB Middle Tennessee -17.5 -14.3 -16.0
Southern Miss. UTEP 17.5 15.5 17.3
North Texas UTSA -8.4 -8.4 -9.7
Central Florida East Carolina 34.1 34.0 35.7
Florida Int’l. Tulane -15.9 -15.5 -16.1
Arkansas St. Coastal Carolina 21.6 21.9 21.3
Georgia Missouri 31.4 34.1 32.9
Nebraska Ohio St. -29.5 -25.6 -30.1
South Florida Cincinnati 28.4 24.6 28.2
Minnesota Michigan St. 5.9 4.4 4.9
USC Utah 15.4 13.1 15.0
Arizona UCLA -3.6 -3.9 -4.3
Fresno St. New Mexico -1.7 -2.7 -2.0
Colorado St. Nevada 25.9 22.1 24.8
San Diego St. Boise St. 6.6 8.6 8.0
Arizona St. Washington -25.4 -22.8 -26.7
Stanford Oregon 9 10.2 9.1
Hawaii San Jose St. 13 14.0 13.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Penn St.
5 Georgia
6 Washington St.
7 TCU
8 Ohio St.
9 Wisconsin
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Notre Dame
12 USC
13 Central Florida
14 San Diego St.
15 Auburn
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Oklahoma
18 Michigan
19 Virginia Tech
20 North Carolina St.
21 South Florida
22 Stanford
23 Texas Tech
24 Navy
25 Michigan St.
26 Iowa
27 Mississippi St.
28 Wake Forest
29 Florida
30 Houston
31 Louisville
32 Kentucky
33 Utah
34 Oregon
35 Georgia Tech
36 Florida St.
37 Texas A&M
38 South Carolina
39 Texas
40 LSU
41 Memphis
42 Iowa St.
43 Maryland
44 Purdue
45 Toledo
46 Tennessee
47 Virginia
48 Duke
49 West Virginia
50 Minnesota
51 UCLA
52 Western Michigan
53 Boise St.
54 Colorado St.
55 Kansas St.
56 Troy
57 Arizona St.
58 Indiana
59 Vanderbilt
60 Colorado
61 Arizona
62 Northwestern
63 California
64 SMU
65 Marshall
66 Army
67 Appalachian St.
68 Nebraska
69 Northern Illinois
70 Tulane
71 Fresno St.
72 Boston College
73 Syracuse
74 Louisiana Tech
75 Southern Miss.
76 Arkansas
77 Florida Atlantic
78 Temple
79 North Texas
80 UTSA
81 Wyoming
82 Pittsburgh
83 Arkansas St.
84 Western Kentucky
85 Ole Miss
86 New Mexico
87 Utah St.
88 Ohio
89 North Carolina
90 Buffalo
91 Akron
92 Air Force
93 Middle Tennessee
94 Cincinnati
95 UL-Monroe
96 Eastern Michigan
97 Illinois
98 UNLV
99 Tulsa
100 New Mexico St.
101 Central Michigan
102 Miami (O)
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Baylor
105 Missouri
106 Oregon St.
107 Rutgers
108 UL-Lafayette
109 UAB
110 Georgia St.
111 Nevada
112 BYU
113 Old Dominion
114 Idaho
115 Hawaii
116 East Carolina
117 Bowling Green
118 Ball St.
119 Kent St.
120 Connecticut
121 South Alabama
122 Kansas
123 Georgia Southern
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Massachusetts
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Texas St.
130 Charlotte

Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 134.4 137.8 137.1
2 Ohio St. 134.3 131.6 134.0 133.3
3 Washington 130.5 127.4 131.2 129.7
4 Clemson 130.0 127.4 129.5 129.0
5 Penn St. 128.2 126.1 129.1 127.8
6 Auburn 126.9 124.7 127.0 126.2
7 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
8 Florida St. 123.3 121.9 122.1 122.5
9 Oklahoma St. 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
10 Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.6 121.8
11 Miami 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.4
12 Wisconsin 122.9 119.1 121.4 121.2
13 Washington St. 120.8 118.3 120.4 119.8
14 U S C 119.6 118.9 119.4 119.3
15 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 119.0 118.6
16 T C U 119.2 116.8 119.5 118.5
17 Notre Dame 117.4 116.0 118.1 117.1
18 N. Carolina St. 117.2 116.5 117.3 117.0
19 Stanford 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
20 Florida 115.2 114.2 114.6 114.7
21 Georgia Tech 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
22 Louisville 114.9 113.9 114.8 114.5
23 Michigan 114.4 114.4 113.8 114.2
24 Texas 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
25 Kansas St. 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
26 Central Florida 111.8 113.4 113.1 112.8
27 L S U 112.6 111.0 113.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
29 Kentucky 110.9 109.7 110.2 110.3
30 Oregon 111.4 108.8 110.5 110.2
31 West Virginia 109.7 110.3 109.9 110.0
32 Iowa 109.8 110.0 109.6 109.8
33 Northwestern 110.1 108.2 110.0 109.4
34 U C L A 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
35 Utah 107.2 108.8 107.4 107.8
36 Colorado 109.1 107.4 106.9 107.8
37 Mississippi St. 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
38 Texas Tech 107.4 107.0 106.8 107.1
39 Texas A&M 108.1 105.9 107.2 107.1
40 S. Carolina 107.7 106.8 106.7 107.1
41 Syracuse 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
42 Duke 107.8 106.7 106.6 107.0
43 Colo. State 107.4 105.9 107.7 107.0
44 Wake Forest 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
45 Iowa State 106.1 106.7 107.0 106.6
46 Minnesota 105.5 106.0 105.0 105.5
47 Houston 105.2 104.4 105.3 105.0
48 San Diego St. 104.5 104.7 105.6 104.9
49 Indiana 104.7 104.8 105.1 104.9
50 Pittsburgh 104.6 104.9 103.9 104.5
51 Vanderbilt 105.1 104.2 104.0 104.4
52 Memphis 104.5 103.8 104.8 104.3
53 N. Carolina 105.1 104.1 103.3 104.2
54 Virginia 103.9 103.4 105.0 104.1
55 Purdue 102.9 104.3 103.6 103.6
56 Tennessee 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
57 Michigan St. 102.5 104.6 103.1 103.4
58 Maryland 102.2 104.1 102.2 102.8
59 Arkansas 102.9 102.5 102.2 102.6
60 Western Michigan 102.1 100.5 103.5 102.0
61 Nebraska 101.8 103.0 100.9 101.9
62 Baylor 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
63 Arizona St. 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
64 Ole Miss 102.7 101.2 100.8 101.6
65 Navy 101.0 101.8 101.0 101.2
66 Arizona 101.9 100.9 100.6 101.1
67 Boise St. 100.9 99.1 100.6 100.2
68 California 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
69 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
70 Boston College 99.5 99.7 99.2 99.5
71 Tulane 98.6 98.6 99.3 98.8
72 Army 98.3 98.4 99.1 98.6
73 SMU 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.5
74 Appalachian St. 98.7 96.4 99.0 98.0
75 Troy 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Missouri 97.1 94.8 96.0 96.0
77 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
78 U T S A 94.3 96.1 96.1 95.5
79 New Mexico 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
80 Temple 94.5 94.8 94.6 94.6
81 Wyoming 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
82 Tulsa 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5
83 Rutgers 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
84 BYU 93.1 92.5 92.9 92.8
85 Air Force 92.3 92.8 92.6 92.6
86 Florida Atlantic 91.2 93.9 92.5 92.5
87 W. Kentucky 92.1 91.5 93.0 92.2
88 Oregon St. 92.5 92.3 91.0 91.9
89 Utah St. 92.4 91.4 91.9 91.9
90 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
91 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
92 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
93 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.1 90.9 90.5
94 Middle Tennessee 89.7 90.3 90.3 90.1
95 Fresno St. 90.3 89.0 90.8 90.1
96 Marshall 88.8 90.1 90.4 89.8
97 Louisiana Tech 88.5 90.1 89.4 89.4
98 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
99 Illinois 89.2 90.7 87.9 89.3
100 Cincinnati 86.8 89.1 88.1 88.0
101 N. Mexico St. 88.2 86.3 88.4 87.6
102 U N L V 86.4 88.7 86.5 87.2
103 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.9 86.9 87.1
104 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
105 Akron 85.3 88.2 85.7 86.4
106 Hawaii 85.9 86.9 85.7 86.2
107 Old Dominion 84.8 87.6 85.0 85.8
108 Nevada 84.5 86.8 85.9 85.7
109 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.2 85.0 85.4
110 Massachusetts 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
111 Kansas 84.0 87.1 83.1 84.8
112 N. Texas 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
113 Georgia St. 84.7 84.1 84.7 84.5
114 S. Alabama 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
115 Idaho 82.9 85.0 83.5 83.8
116 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
117 Connecticut 82.1 85.0 82.0 83.0
118 UL-Monroe 81.8 82.5 80.8 81.7
119 East Carolina 80.7 82.4 80.4 81.2
120 Florida Int’l. 80.1 80.6 80.7 80.5
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.8 79.3 77.5 78.2
123 San Jose St. 76.8 76.9 76.1 76.6
124 Rice 74.9 76.0 75.0 75.3
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 Charlotte 72.6 74.9 73.0 73.5
127 U T E P 72.2 75.3 72.6 73.4
128 Coastal Carolina 71.0 72.2 72.5 71.9
129 UAB 69.7 73.5 71.8 71.7
130 Texas St. 70.4 72.9 69.1 70.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 2-0 4-0 111.8 113.4 113.1 112.8
South Florida 2-0 5-0 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
Temple 1-2 3-3 94.5 94.8 94.6 94.6
Cincinnati 0-2 2-4 86.8 89.1 88.1 88.0
Connecticut 0-3 1-4 82.1 85.0 82.0 83.0
East Carolina 1-2 1-5 80.7 82.4 80.4 81.2
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 2-0 4-1 105.2 104.4 105.3 105.0
Memphis 1-1 4-1 104.5 103.8 104.8 104.3
Navy 3-0 5-0 101.0 101.8 101.0 101.2
Tulane 1-1 3-2 98.6 98.6 99.3 98.8
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.5
Tulsa 0-2 1-5 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-0 6-0 130.0 127.4 129.5 129.0
Florida St. 1-2 1-3 123.3 121.9 122.1 122.5
N. Carolina St. 3-0 5-1 117.2 116.5 117.3 117.0
Louisville 1-2 4-2 114.9 113.9 114.8 114.5
Syracuse 1-1 3-3 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
Boston College 0-3 2-4 99.5 99.7 99.2 99.5
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 2-0 4-0 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.4
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.7 118.1 119.0 118.6
Georgia Tech 2-0 3-1 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
Duke 1-2 4-2 107.8 106.7 106.6 107.0
Pittsburgh 0-2 2-4 104.6 104.9 103.9 104.5
N. Carolina 0-3 1-5 105.1 104.1 103.3 104.2
Virginia 1-0 4-1 103.9 103.4 105.0 104.1
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 1-1 4-1 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
Oklahoma 1-1 4-1 122.1 120.8 122.6 121.8
T C U 2-0 5-0 119.2 116.8 119.5 118.5
Kansas St. 1-1 3-2 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
Texas 2-0 3-2 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
West Virginia 1-1 3-2 109.7 110.3 109.9 110.0
Iowa State 1-1 3-2 106.1 106.7 107.0 106.6
Texas Tech 1-1 4-1 107.4 107.0 106.8 107.1
Baylor 0-2 0-5 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
Kansas 0-2 1-4 84.0 87.1 83.1 84.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.1 110.1 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 3-0 5-1 134.3 131.6 134.0 133.3
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.2 126.1 129.1 127.8
Michigan 1-1 4-1 114.4 114.4 113.8 114.2
Indiana 0-2 3-2 104.7 104.8 105.1 104.9
Michigan St. 2-0 4-1 102.5 104.6 103.1 103.4
Maryland 1-1 3-2 102.2 104.1 102.2 102.8
Rutgers 0-2 1-4 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 2-0 5-0 122.9 119.1 121.4 121.2
Iowa 1-2 4-2 109.8 110.0 109.6 109.8
Northwestern 0-2 2-3 110.1 108.2 110.0 109.4
Minnesota 0-2 3-2 105.5 106.0 105.0 105.5
Purdue 1-1 3-2 102.9 104.3 103.6 103.6
Nebraska 2-1 3-3 101.8 103.0 100.9 101.9
Illinois 0-2 2-3 89.2 90.7 87.9 89.3
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.2 93.9 92.5 92.5
W. Kentucky 1-1 3-2 92.1 91.5 93.0 92.2
Middle Tennessee 1-1 3-3 89.7 90.3 90.3 90.1
Marshall 1-0 4-1 88.8 90.1 90.4 89.8
Old Dominion 0-1 2-3 84.8 87.6 85.0 85.8
Florida Int’l. 2-1 3-2 80.1 80.6 80.7 80.5
Charlotte 0-2 0-6 72.6 74.9 73.0 73.5
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-1 3-1 94.3 96.1 96.1 95.5
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.5 90.1 89.4 89.4
Southern Miss. 1-1 3-2 86.7 87.9 86.9 87.1
N. Texas 2-0 3-2 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
Rice 1-1 1-5 74.9 76.0 75.0 75.3
U T E P 0-2 0-6 72.2 75.3 72.6 73.4
UAB 1-1 3-2 69.7 73.5 71.8 71.7
             
CUSA Averages     83.5 85.3 84.4 84.4
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.4 116.0 118.1 117.1
Army   4-2 98.3 98.4 99.1 98.6
BYU   1-5 93.1 92.5 92.9 92.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
             
Independents Averages     98.5 97.9 98.8 98.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 1-1 4-2 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
Miami (O) 1-1 2-4 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
Buffalo 1-1 3-3 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Akron 2-0 3-3 85.3 88.2 85.7 86.4
Bowling Green 1-1 1-5 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
Kent St. 0-2 1-5 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 2-0 4-2 102.1 100.5 103.5 102.0
Toledo 0-0 4-1 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-3 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
Northern Illinois 1-0 3-2 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
Central Michigan 1-1 3-3 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 2-0 4-2 107.4 105.9 107.7 107.0
Boise St. 1-0 3-2 100.9 99.1 100.6 100.2
New Mexico 1-1 3-2 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
Wyoming 1-0 3-2 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
Air Force 0-2 1-4 92.3 92.8 92.6 92.6
Utah St. 1-1 3-3 92.4 91.4 91.9 91.9
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-0 6-0 104.5 104.7 105.6 104.9
Fresno St. 2-0 3-2 90.3 89.0 90.8 90.1
U N L V 1-1 2-3 86.4 88.7 86.5 87.2
Hawaii 0-3 2-4 85.9 86.9 85.7 86.2
Nevada 1-1 1-5 84.5 86.8 85.9 85.7
San Jose St. 0-3 1-6 76.8 76.9 76.1 76.6
             
MWC Averages     92.6 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-0 6-0 130.5 127.4 131.2 129.7
Washington St. 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.3 120.4 119.8
Stanford 3-1 4-2 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
Oregon 1-2 4-2 111.4 108.8 110.5 110.2
California 0-3 3-3 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
Oregon St. 0-3 1-5 92.5 92.3 91.0 91.9
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 3-1 5-1 119.6 118.9 119.4 119.3
U C L A 1-1 3-2 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
Utah 1-1 4-1 107.2 108.8 107.4 107.8
Colorado 0-3 3-3 109.1 107.4 106.9 107.8
Arizona St. 1-1 2-3 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
Arizona 1-1 3-2 101.9 100.9 100.6 101.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.2 108.9 109.4 109.5
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 3-0 6-0 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
Florida 3-1 3-2 115.2 114.2 114.6 114.7
Kentucky 2-1 5-1 110.9 109.7 110.2 110.3
S. Carolina 2-2 4-2 107.7 106.8 106.7 107.1
Vanderbilt 0-3 3-3 105.1 104.2 104.0 104.4
Tennessee 0-2 3-2 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
Missouri 0-3 1-4 97.1 94.8 96.0 96.0
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 3-0 6-0 139.0 134.4 137.8 137.1
Auburn 3-0 5-1 126.9 124.7 127.0 126.2
L S U 1-1 4-2 112.6 111.0 113.1 112.2
Mississippi St. 1-2 3-2 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
Texas A&M 2-1 4-2 108.1 105.9 107.2 107.1
Arkansas 0-2 2-3 102.9 102.5 102.2 102.6
Ole Miss 0-2 2-3 102.7 101.2 100.8 101.6
             
SEC Averages     111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 2-0 3-2 98.7 96.4 99.0 98.0
Troy 1-0 4-1 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
Arkansas St. 1-0 2-2 89.6 91.1 90.9 90.5
N. Mexico St. 0-2 2-4 88.2 86.3 88.4 87.6
UL-Lafayette 1-1 2-3 84.9 86.2 85.0 85.4
Georgia St. 1-0 2-2 84.7 84.1 84.7 84.5
S. Alabama 0-1 1-4 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
Idaho 1-1 2-3 82.9 85.0 83.5 83.8
UL-Monroe 3-0 3-2 81.8 82.5 80.8 81.7
Georgia Southern 0-1 0-4 77.8 79.3 77.5 78.2
Coastal Carolina 0-2 1-4 71.0 72.2 72.5 71.9
Texas St. 0-2 1-5 70.4 72.9 69.1 70.8
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.1 110.1 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.2 108.9 109.4 109.5
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.5 97.9 98.8 98.4
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.6 92.6 92.8 92.7
9 MAC 88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
10 Sun Belt 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4
11 CUSA 83.5 85.3 84.4 84.4

PiRate Ratings Bowl Projections

Note–At this point of the season, it appears that up to six additional teams could be bowl eligible that do not receive bowl invitations.  The MAC and CUSA could be the victims in this scenario.  Don’t count on any teams getting in with losing records this season.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC Temple Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. UCLA
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida UAB
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Miami (O) Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Utah St.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Georgia St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Boise St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Kansas St. UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Arizona
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke Arkansas
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Virginia Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Northwestern Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Georgia Tech
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Oklahoma
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Purdue Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 North Carolina St. LSU
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Florida St. Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville South Carolina
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [North Texas]
Cotton At-large At-large Penn St. Washington St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Maryland Florida
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Tennessee
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Notre Dame
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Georgia
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Kentucky
Peach At-large At-large Wisconsin Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Alabama Ohio St.
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Clemson Washington
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Princes That Could Be Kings
A popular feature of many sports websites is the coaches hot seat. Coach So and So makes 5 million a year, and in his 5 years at Big-time U, he has a record of 32-30. Obviously, it’s time for So and So to go, go, go.

We here at the PiRate Ratings like to accentuate the positive. We would never feature a hot seat. Instead, we like to locate those up and coming young geniuses that will one day become the new So and So at Big-time U.

We classify three types of princes in this field–head coaches at Group of 5 Schools, head coaches at FCS schools, and coordinators at FBS Power 5 Conference schools.

Here is our first edition of Princes That Could Be Kings. These guys are head coaches at schools in the Group of 5 conferences. To make the list as a “prince,” they must be under the age of 45 (under 44 since if they were hired for next season, they would then be 45), as we are looking for up and comers and not coaches that have won 100 games without making it to the top tier. If a coach has won a lot of games at a Group of 5 school, he is already a king, but he is ruling a smaller nation.

Here is our current list in alphabetical order.

Major Applewhite, Houston, age 39
Applewhite quarterbacked Texas in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. He began his coaching career at his alma mater under Mack Brown, and he has experience as a coordinator under Nick Saban and Tom Herman. He is in his first year as head coach at Houston, but he’s already considered a big-time name in the coaching business, and his stay with the Cougars could lead to bigger and better things sooner rather than later.

Mike Bobo, Colorado St., age 43
Bobo was the starting quarterback at Georgia in the 1990’s and a long-time offensive assistant at his alma mater. He tutored Matthew Stafford, Aaron Murray, and David Greene during his time between the hedges. At Colorado State, Bobo has an 18-14 record in his third year in Fort Collins, and his Rams look like the top team in the Mountain Division of the MWC.

Neal Brown, Troy, age 37
Brown couldn’t be any hotter than he is now. Troy recently won at LSU to raise their record on the season to 4-1. This comes on the heels of a 10-3 season last year, as the Trojans will contend with Appalachian State, Arkansas State, and UL-Monroe for the Sun Belt Conference title this year.

Jason Candle, Toledo, age 37
Candle’s coaching career began in the Division III ranks, and he has limited FBS experience, all at Toledo, where he worked for current Iowa State coach Matt Campbell when Campbell held the Rockets’ head coaching position. In his second year in the Glass Bowl, his won-loss record is 14-5.

Scott Frost, Central Florida, age 37
The national championship-winning quarterback of the 1997 Nebraska Cornhuskers, Frost played under legendary coach Tom Osborne. In his final game at Nebraska, he led the Cornhuskers to a blowout win over a Peyton Manning-led Tennessee team.

Frost was not an NFL-caliber passer, but he was athletic enough to play for pay. He became a valuable special teams player during a brief NFL career that saw him play for Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells.

As an assistant at Oregon, Frost experienced the Chip Kelly. In his second year as a head coach, Frost has UCF in contention for the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid allocated to the best Group of 5 team. The Golden Knights average more than 200 yards rushing and 300 yards passing this season. They average 47.5 points per game, but this team is not one dimensional, yielding less than 16 points per game. They have succeeded while having to cancel games, reschedule games, and in one case, not knowing for sure who they were about to play.

Seth Littrell, North Texas, age 39
Littrell played at Oklahoma as a running back on the 2000 national champion team under Bob Stoops. He was an assistant under Mike Leach at Texas Tech and under Larry Fedora at North Carolina. His offense is a perfect combination of his three former mentors, as UNT is currently averaging 215 yard per game on the ground and 295 yards through the air. He took the Mean Green to a bowl in year one and has UNT at 3-2 and in position to make it back to another bowl this year.

Frank Wilson, UTSA, age 43
Wilson has a somewhat different resume from the others on this list, but he definitely deserves to be part of this group. His assistant coaching history includes working for renegades like Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron, and Les Miles. He led UTSA to their first ever bowl game in his first year in San Antonio, and he has the Roadrunners in contention to win the CUSA West Division this year. His teams are balanced–equally strong running and passing the ball and defending the run and pass, and he is one of the best recruiters in the land.

October 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: October 4-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:48 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tampa Bay New England -1.1 -2.5 -0.3 47
N. Y. Giants LA Chargers 3.6 4.1 3.3 40
Cincinnati Buffalo 2.5 2.7 1.9 37
Cleveland N. Y. Jets 1.7 2.4 1.8 40
Pittsburgh Jacksonville 11.6 11.5 11.7 45
Miami Tennessee 1.1 1.0 1.1 44
Indianapolis San Francisco 4.4 5.0 3.9 51
Philadelphia Arizona 6.5 5.1 7.7 46
Detroit Carolina 5.0 6.3 4.9 50
LA Rams Seattle -7.2 -7.5 -6.7 42
Oakland Baltimore 6.8 7.0 6.4 41
Dallas Green Bay 1.8 0.7 2.0 51
Houston Kansas City -1.7 -1.3 -2.5 42
Chicago Minnesota -3.9 -3.8 -4.4 37

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 104.5 105.2 104.1 104.6 24
Buffalo 100.4 100.5 101.0 100.6 21
Miami 96.3 96.3 95.7 96.1 19
N. Y. Jets 93.2 92.8 93.3 93.1 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 21
Cincinnati 99.8 100.2 99.8 100.0 16
Baltimore 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 18
Cleveland 91.9 92.3 92.2 92.1 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 101.1 101.4 100.7 101.1 21
Tennessee 98.2 98.3 97.7 98.1 25
Jacksonville 97.7 97.9 97.5 97.7 24
Indianapolis 93.7 94.0 93.1 93.6 26
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.7 105.8 106.2 105.9 21
Denver 103.8 103.1 104.2 103.7 19
Oakland 103.5 104.0 103.1 103.5 23
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.1 99.0 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.4 101.8 102.3 102.2 25
Philadelphia 101.9 100.8 102.7 101.8 23
Washington 100.3 100.0 100.7 100.3 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.9 99.2 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.6 104.1 103.3 103.7 26
Detroit 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 24
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.8 99.8 17
Chicago 93.3 93.8 92.9 93.3 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.5 104.3 31
New Orleans 101.6 100.6 101.9 101.4 30
Carolina 100.9 100.2 101.2 100.8 26
Tampa Bay 100.4 99.6 100.8 100.3 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 20
Arizona 98.9 99.2 98.5 98.9 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.7 92.5 92.7 92.6 25

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs

AFC

  1. Kansas City
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. New England
  4. Houston
  5. Denver
  6. Buffalo

NFC

  1. Atlanta
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Green Bay
  4. Seattle
  5. Carolina
  6. Los Angeles

Wildcard Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Denver

Green Bay over Los Angeles

Carolina over Seattle

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Houston

Pittsburgh over New England

Carolina over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Green Bay

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Philadelphia

October 2, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 4-7, 2017

PiRate Rating Spreads For This Week

October 4-7        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -6.5 -6.9 -8.7
North Carolina St. Louisville 2.5 3.0 2.3
Connecticut Memphis -13.7 -9.8 -13.8
BYU Boise St. -0.5 0.7 0.0
East Carolina Temple -7.2 -6.0 -7.2
Oklahoma Iowa St. 26.2 23.2 26.3
Clemson Wake Forest 27.0 25.1 26.8
Toledo Eastern Michigan 6.7 6.8 8.0
Kansas Texas Tech -14.6 -10.7 -14.5
Iowa Illinois 22.9 21.6 23.8
Vanderbilt Georgia -14.5 -16.4 -15.8
Auburn Ole Miss 27.0 26.3 29.0
Northwestern Penn St. -14.2 -14.0 -14.9
Virginia Duke -2.3 -1.1 0.5
Syracuse Pittsburgh 5.9 4.0 5.9
Ohio U Central Michigan 4.8 5.5 5.7
Miami (O) Bowling Green 15.8 16.8 16.7
Texas St. Louisiana-Monroe -7.5 -5.5 -7.4
Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l. 10.6 11.2 10.3
Appalachian St. New Mexico St. 13.3 12.9 13.4
Purdue Minnesota -3.1 -1.7 -2.2
North Carolina Notre Dame -5.9 -5.9 -8.6
Northern Illinois Kent St. 13.6 11.9 13.5
Navy Air Force 12.4 12.6 12.4
Florida LSU 7.3 7.5 6.3
Buffalo Western Michigan -15.1 -11.0 -14.5
TCU West Virginia 13.0 9.7 13.4
Akron Ball St. 10.7 11.8 9.3
Florida St. Miami (Fla.) 4.6 5.3 4.2
Oregon Washington St. -1.9 -2.6 -2.3
Tulane Tulsa -1.5 -1.0 -0.9
Ohio St. Maryland 31.8 27.1 31.0
USC Oregon St. 29.9 29.5 31.1
UAB Louisiana Tech -22.5 -19.2 -21.4
South Carolina Arkansas 1.7 1.6 1.0
Utah St. Colorado St. -11.6 -11.3 -12.4
Idaho Louisiana-Lafayette 3.0 3.8 4.1
Old Dominion Florida Atlantic 4.3 3.6 3.4
Charlotte Marshall -13.5 -12.6 -14.7
Coastal Carolina Georgia St. -11.6 -9.7 -10.1
Rice Army -14.8 -13.8 -15.3
UTSA Southern Miss. 13.4 13.6 15.6
Texas Kansas St. 2.6 3.6 2.9
Houston SMU 8.0 7.3 7.3
Texas A&M Alabama -32.6 -29.8 -32.7
Boston College Virginia Tech -17.0 -16.0 -18.0
Kentucky Missouri 17.8 19.0 18.6
San Jose St. Fresno St. -10.2 -8.8 -11.4
Michigan Michigan St. 18.4 15.4 17.0
UTEP Western Kentucky -19.4 -15.3 -20.3
Nebraska Wisconsin -17.4 -12.1 -16.4
Cincinnati Central Florida -20.6 -19.9 -20.3
Colorado Arizona 14.7 13.4 13.9
Utah Stanford -7.5 -4.3 -6.5
Nevada Hawaii -0.8 0.9 0.8
Washington California 31.7 31.0 34.1
UNLV San Diego St. -11 -8.4 -11.3
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
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This Week’s PiRate Retrodictive Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings are like rankings, rating teams based on what they have done so far this season without trying to predict the outcome of future games

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.4
2 Clemson 130.8
3 Washington 129.6
4 Oklahoma 129.2
5 Penn St. 127.7
6 Georgia 127.5
7 Michigan 123.8
8 Ohio St. 123.6
9 Wisconsin 123.5
10 Miami (Fla) 123.0
11 TCU 122.9
12 Washington St. 122.2
13 USC 120.7
14 Louisville 120.4
15 San Diego St. 117.9
16 Florida 117.6
17 Virginia Tech 116.5
18 Oklahoma St. 116.1
19 Central Florida 115.8
20 South Florida 115.6
21 Auburn 115.5
22 Notre Dame 115.5
23 Utah 115.2
24 Stanford 115.1
25 North Carolina St. 115.0
26 Texas Tech 114.9
27 Navy 114.9
28 Wake Forest 114.8
29 Mississippi St. 114.7
30 Kansas St. 114.7
31 Minnesota 114.2
32 Oregon 114.0
33 Duke 113.9
34 Iowa 113.5
35 Kentucky 113.4
36 Georgia Tech 113.2
37 Maryland 112.9
38 Florida St. 112.5
39 Houston 112.0
40 Texas A&M 111.8
41 West Virginia 111.4
42 Michigan St. 111.1
43 LSU 110.6
44 Colorado 110.2
45 Tennessee 109.7
46 Toledo 109.3
47 Vanderbilt 108.5
48 South Carolina 108.2
49 Texas 107.7
50 California 107.6
51 Memphis 107.2
52 UCLA 106.9
53 Western Michigan 106.6
54 Nebraska 106.0
55 Boise St. 105.6
56 Northwestern 105.0
57 Indiana 104.7
58 Purdue 104.4
59 Arizona St. 103.9
60 Colorado St. 103.7
61 Virginia 103.4
62 Troy 102.9
63 UTSA 102.0
64 SMU 101.8
65 Arkansas 101.7
66 Appalachian St. 101.5
67 Ole Miss 100.9
68 Northern Illinois 100.7
69 Marshall 100.0
70 Pittsburgh 99.6
71 Ohio 98.9
72 Louisiana Tech 98.4
73 Tulane 98.2
74 Boston College 98.0
75 Arizona 97.8
76 Iowa St. 97.0
77 Utah St. 96.6
78 Air Force 96.2
79 Army 95.9
80 Wyoming 95.3
81 North Carolina 94.5
82 Western Kentucky 94.1
83 Arkansas St. 93.7
84 Southern Miss. 93.3
85 Temple 92.9
86 New Mexico 92.8
87 Fresno St. 92.2
88 Syracuse 91.5
89 North Texas 91.1
90 Tulsa 90.6
91 Florida Int’l. 90.4
92 Eastern Michigan 89.9
93 Buffalo 89.4
94 Illinois 89.3
95 Cincinnati 88.7
96 Miami (O) 88.1
97 Florida Atlantic 88.0
98 Idaho 87.2
99 BYU 86.9
100 Middle Tennessee 86.5
101 Old Dominion 86.1
102 Baylor 85.8
103 New Mexico St. 85.0
104 UNLV 84.9
105 Akron 84.7
106 Missouri 84.7
107 Oregon St. 84.1
108 UL-Monroe 83.6
109 Rutgers 82.9
110 Hawaii 82.5
111 Central Michigan 82.2
112 UL-Lafayette 82.0
113 Ball St. 81.8
114 East Carolina 81.3
115 South Alabama 80.8
116 Connecticut 79.6
117 UAB 79.1
118 Georgia St. 78.3
119 Coastal Carolina 77.9
120 Georgia Southern 77.8
121 Kansas 77.8
122 Kent St. 75.1
123 Rice 75.0
124 Nevada 74.4
125 Massachusetts 73.8
126 Bowling Green 73.3
127 San Jose St. 73.2
128 UTEP 73.1
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 72.2

PiRate Predictive Ratings

Predictive Ratings only look forward to the next week’s games played.  They do not rate teams based on what they have done so far, and in many cases, a higher-rated team may have lost to a lower-rated team (like Ohio State being rated higher than Oklahoma).

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.1 136.3 140.1 139.2
2 Ohio St. 132.6 129.9 132.1 131.5
3 Clemson 130.7 127.8 130.3 129.6
4 Washington 130.0 126.9 130.7 129.2
5 Penn St. 127.7 125.7 128.5 127.3
6 Auburn 126.8 124.6 126.9 126.1
7 Oklahoma 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
8 Georgia 123.6 124.3 123.9 123.9
9 Florida St. 124.1 122.6 123.1 123.3
10 Oklahoma St. 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
11 Miami 121.5 119.3 121.0 120.6
12 Wisconsin 122.4 118.4 120.7 120.5
13 U S C 119.5 118.8 119.3 119.2
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.2 119.4 118.8
15 T C U 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
16 Washington St. 118.3 116.1 117.8 117.4
17 Stanford 117.5 116.1 116.7 116.8
18 Michigan 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
19 Louisville 116.3 115.2 116.4 116.0
20 N. Carolina St. 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
21 Notre Dame 115.7 114.5 116.5 115.5
22 Florida 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.5
23 Georgia Tech 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
24 Texas 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
25 Kansas St. 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
26 Oregon 113.4 110.5 112.6 112.2
27 South Florida 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
28 Central Florida 110.7 112.3 111.8 111.6
29 L S U 111.8 110.3 112.2 111.4
30 Kentucky 111.4 110.2 110.9 110.8
31 Colorado 111.5 109.5 109.4 110.1
32 Northwestern 110.6 108.6 110.6 109.9
33 West Virginia 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
34 Iowa 109.6 109.8 109.3 109.6
35 U C L A 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
36 Utah 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
37 Mississippi St. 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
38 Duke 108.4 107.0 107.0 107.5
39 Minnesota 107.3 107.5 106.9 107.2
40 Syracuse 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
41 Colo. State 107.2 105.8 107.5 106.8
42 Wake Forest 106.8 105.7 106.5 106.3
43 Vanderbilt 106.6 105.4 105.6 105.9
44 Arkansas 106.2 105.6 105.7 105.9
45 N. Carolina 106.8 105.6 104.9 105.8
46 Indiana 104.6 104.7 105.0 104.8
47 Pittsburgh 104.9 105.2 104.2 104.8
48 Maryland 103.9 105.8 104.1 104.6
49 Texas A&M 105.5 103.5 104.4 104.5
50 S. Carolina 104.9 104.2 103.7 104.3
51 Houston 104.5 103.8 104.4 104.2
52 Texas Tech 104.5 103.9 103.7 104.0
53 Tennessee 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
54 Virginia 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
55 Iowa State 102.6 103.8 103.3 103.3
56 Western Michigan 102.7 101.0 104.2 102.6
57 Nebraska 102.0 103.4 101.3 102.2
58 San Diego St. 101.9 102.0 102.8 102.2
59 Purdue 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
60 Baylor 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
61 Arizona St. 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
62 Ole Miss 102.8 101.3 100.9 101.7
63 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.5 101.6
64 Memphis 101.7 100.8 101.8 101.4
65 Michigan St. 100.0 102.5 100.7 101.1
66 Toledo 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
67 California 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
68 Boston College 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3
69 SMU 99.0 99.1 99.6 99.2
70 Arizona 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
71 Tulsa 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.7
72 Boise St. 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
73 Appalachian St. 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
74 U T S A 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
75 Troy 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Army 95.5 95.6 96.2 95.8
77 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
78 Eastern Michigan 95.5 95.1 95.5 95.4
79 BYU 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3
80 New Mexico 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
81 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
82 Wyoming 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
83 Miami (O) 92.7 94.7 94.2 93.9
84 W. Kentucky 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
85 Rutgers 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
86 Temple 92.7 93.1 92.6 92.8
87 Air Force 91.9 92.5 92.1 92.2
88 Louisiana Tech 91.4 92.5 92.4 92.1
89 Utah St. 92.6 91.5 92.1 92.1
90 Oregon St. 92.6 92.4 91.1 92.0
91 Ohio U 91.1 92.5 92.1 91.9
92 Northern Illinois 90.2 90.0 90.7 90.3
93 Illinois 89.7 91.2 88.5 89.8
94 Marshall 88.7 90.0 90.3 89.7
95 U N L V 88.7 91.1 89.0 89.6
96 Fresno St. 89.8 88.5 90.3 89.6
97 Old Dominion 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
98 Middle Tennessee 89.0 89.8 89.4 89.4
99 Arkansas St. 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
100 Central Michigan 88.7 89.5 88.9 89.0
101 Cincinnati 87.6 89.9 89.1 88.9
102 Kansas 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
103 Florida Atlantic 86.9 89.9 88.1 88.3
104 Hawaii 87.6 88.4 87.4 87.8
105 N. Mexico St. 88.3 86.4 88.5 87.7
106 Buffalo 85.1 87.5 87.2 86.6
107 Connecticut 84.9 88.0 85.0 86.0
108 Southern Miss. 85.3 86.7 85.2 85.7
109 Massachusetts 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
110 Akron 83.9 87.0 84.0 85.0
111 Georgia St. 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
112 N. Texas 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
113 Idaho 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
114 UL-Lafayette 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
115 S. Alabama 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
116 Nevada 82.8 85.3 84.2 84.1
117 East Carolina 82.5 84.1 82.4 83.0
118 Florida Int’l. 80.8 81.1 81.6 81.2
119 UL-Monroe 81.1 81.7 79.9 80.9
120 Kent St. 79.6 81.1 80.2 80.3
121 Bowling Green 79.5 80.4 79.9 79.9
122 Georgia Southern 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
123 Rice 77.7 78.8 77.9 78.1
124 San Jose St. 77.1 77.2 76.4 76.9
125 Ball St. 75.7 77.7 77.2 76.9
126 Charlotte 72.7 75.0 73.1 73.6
127 U T E P 71.7 75.0 71.9 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 70.8 72.1 72.3 71.8
129 Texas St. 71.1 73.7 70.0 71.6
130 UAB 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 2-0 5-0 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
Central Florida 1-0 3-0 110.7 112.3 111.8 111.6
Temple 0-2 2-3 92.7 93.1 92.6 92.8
Cincinnati 0-1 2-3 87.6 89.9 89.1 88.9
Connecticut 0-2 1-3 84.9 88.0 85.0 86.0
East Carolina 1-1 1-4 82.5 84.1 82.4 83.0
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 1-0 3-1 104.5 103.8 104.4 104.2
Navy 3-0 4-0 101.4 102.1 101.5 101.6
Memphis 0-1 3-1 101.7 100.8 101.8 101.4
SMU 1-0 4-1 99.0 99.1 99.6 99.2
Tulsa 0-1 1-4 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.7
Tulane 0-1 2-2 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 3-0 5-0 130.7 127.8 130.3 129.6
Florida St. 1-1 1-2 124.1 122.6 123.1 123.3
Louisville 1-1 4-1 116.3 115.2 116.4 116.0
N. Carolina St. 2-0 4-1 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
Syracuse 0-1 2-3 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
Wake Forest 1-1 4-1 106.8 105.7 106.5 106.3
Boston College 0-2 2-3 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 1-0 3-0 121.5 119.3 121.0 120.6
Virginia Tech 0-1 4-1 118.9 118.2 119.4 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-0 3-1 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
Duke 1-1 4-1 108.4 107.0 107.0 107.5
N. Carolina 0-3 1-4 106.8 105.6 104.9 105.8
Pittsburgh 0-1 2-3 104.9 105.2 104.2 104.8
Virginia 0-0 3-1 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
             
ACC Averages     112.9 111.7 112.4 112.3
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
Oklahoma St. 1-1 4-1 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
T C U 1-0 4-0 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
Texas 1-0 2-2 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
Kansas St. 1-0 3-1 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
West Virginia 1-0 3-1 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
Texas Tech 0-1 3-1 104.5 103.9 103.7 104.0
Iowa State 0-1 2-2 102.6 103.8 103.3 103.3
Baylor 0-2 0-5 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
Kansas 0-1 1-3 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.2 110.2 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 2-0 4-1 132.6 129.9 132.1 131.5
Penn St. 2-0 5-0 127.7 125.7 128.5 127.3
Michigan 1-0 4-0 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
Indiana 0-2 2-2 104.6 104.7 105.0 104.8
Maryland 1-0 3-1 103.9 105.8 104.1 104.6
Michigan St. 1-0 3-1 100.0 102.5 100.7 101.1
Rutgers 0-2 1-4 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 1-0 4-0 122.4 118.4 120.7 120.5
Northwestern 0-1 2-2 110.6 108.6 110.6 109.9
Iowa 0-2 3-2 109.6 109.8 109.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-1 3-1 107.3 107.5 106.9 107.2
Nebraska 2-0 3-2 102.0 103.4 101.3 102.2
Purdue 0-1 2-2 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
Illinois 0-1 2-2 89.7 91.2 88.5 89.8
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 2-2 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
Marshall 0-0 3-1 88.7 90.0 90.3 89.7
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
Middle Tennessee 0-1 2-3 89.0 89.8 89.4 89.4
Florida Atlantic 1-0 2-3 86.9 89.9 88.1 88.3
Florida Int’l. 2-0 3-1 80.8 81.1 81.6 81.2
Charlotte 0-1 0-5 72.7 75.0 73.1 73.6
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 3-0 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
Louisiana Tech 1-0 3-2 91.4 92.5 92.4 92.1
Southern Miss. 0-1 2-2 85.3 86.7 85.2 85.7
N. Texas 2-0 3-2 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
Rice 1-1 1-4 77.7 78.8 77.9 78.1
U T E P 0-1 0-5 71.7 75.0 71.9 72.9
UAB 0-1 2-2 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.8 85.5 84.6 84.6
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   4-1 115.7 114.5 116.5 115.5
Army   3-2 95.5 95.6 96.2 95.8
BYU   1-4 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3
Massachusetts   0-6 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
             
Indep. Averages     98.0 97.4 98.4 97.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 1-0 2-3 92.7 94.7 94.2 93.9
Ohio U 1-0 4-1 91.1 92.5 92.1 91.9
Buffalo 1-0 3-2 85.1 87.5 87.2 86.6
Akron 1-0 2-3 83.9 87.0 84.0 85.0
Kent St. 0-1 1-4 79.6 81.1 80.2 80.3
Bowling Green 0-1 0-5 79.5 80.4 79.9 79.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 1-0 3-2 102.7 101.0 104.2 102.6
Toledo 0-0 3-1 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
Eastern Michigan 0-1 2-2 95.5 95.1 95.5 95.4
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-2 90.2 90.0 90.7 90.3
Central Michigan 0-1 2-3 88.7 89.5 88.9 89.0
Ball St. 0-1 2-3 75.7 77.7 77.2 76.9
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 1-0 3-2 107.2 105.8 107.5 106.8
Boise St. 1-0 2-2 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
New Mexico 1-1 3-2 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
Wyoming 1-0 3-2 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
Air Force 0-2 1-3 91.9 92.5 92.1 92.2
Utah St. 1-0 3-2 92.6 91.5 92.1 92.1
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 5-0 101.9 102.0 102.8 102.2
U N L V 1-0 2-2 88.7 91.1 89.0 89.6
Fresno St. 1-0 2-2 89.8 88.5 90.3 89.6
Hawaii 0-2 2-3 87.6 88.4 87.4 87.8
Nevada 0-1 0-5 82.8 85.3 84.2 84.1
San Jose St. 0-2 1-5 77.1 77.2 76.4 76.9
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.4 92.5 92.4
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 2-0 5-0 130.0 126.9 130.7 129.2
Washington St. 2-0 5-0 118.3 116.1 117.8 117.4
Stanford 2-1 3-2 117.5 116.1 116.7 116.8
Oregon 1-1 4-1 113.4 110.5 112.6 112.2
California 0-2 3-2 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
Oregon St. 0-2 1-4 92.6 92.4 91.1 92.0
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 2-1 4-1 119.5 118.8 119.3 119.2
Colorado 0-2 3-2 111.5 109.5 109.4 110.1
U C L A 1-1 3-2 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
Utah 1-0 4-0 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
Arizona St. 1-1 2-3 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
Arizona 0-1 2-2 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.9 109.4 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 5-0 123.6 124.3 123.9 123.9
Florida 3-0 3-1 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.5
Kentucky 1-1 4-1 111.4 110.2 110.9 110.8
Vanderbilt 0-2 3-2 106.6 105.4 105.6 105.9
S. Carolina 1-2 3-2 104.9 104.2 103.7 104.3
Tennessee 0-2 3-2 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
Missouri 0-2 1-3 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 2-0 5-0 141.1 136.3 140.1 139.2
Auburn 2-0 4-1 126.8 124.6 126.9 126.1
L S U 0-1 3-2 111.8 110.3 112.2 111.4
Mississippi St. 1-2 3-2 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
Arkansas 0-1 2-2 106.2 105.6 105.7 105.9
Texas A&M 2-0 4-1 105.5 103.5 104.4 104.5
Ole Miss 0-1 2-2 102.8 101.3 100.9 101.7
             
SEC Averages     111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-2 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
Troy 1-0 4-1 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
N. Mexico St. 0-1 2-3 88.3 86.4 88.5 87.7
Georgia St. 0-0 1-2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
Idaho 1-0 2-2 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
UL-Lafayette 0-1 1-3 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
S. Alabama 0-1 1-4 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
UL-Monroe 2-0 2-2 81.1 81.7 79.9 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-3 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
Coastal Carolina 0-1 1-3 70.8 72.1 72.3 71.8
Texas St. 0-1 1-4 71.1 73.7 70.0 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.1 84.9 84.2 84.4

Ratings By Conference

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.9 111.7 112.4 112.3
2 SEC 111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.2 110.2 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.9 109.4 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.0 97.4 98.4 97.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.4 92.4 92.5 92.4
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.8 85.5 84.6 84.6
11 Sun Belt 84.1 84.9 84.2 84.4

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N. Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC [W. Kentucky] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Boise St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U New Mexico St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Buffalo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Fresno St.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Western Mich.
Potato MAC MWC Miami (O) Wyoming
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 Memphis Tennessee
Arm. Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army Nebraska
$ General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Hawaii
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Kansas St. UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Toledo] Michigan St.
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Colorado
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 [Old Dominion] [UNLV]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Virginia Maryland
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Arkansas
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy [Middle Tenn.]
Camp.Wrld ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern UCLA
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Duke Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Mississippi St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [Iowa]
Cotton At-large At-large Penn St. Georgia
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Minnesota South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Washington St. Wisconsin
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Louisville Ohio St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Texas A&M
Peach At-large At-large Notre Dame Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Miami (Fla.) Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Clemson Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Washington
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Bowl Contention/Elimination Season
Welcome to real Autumn. As the calendar page flips to October, college football season is in full bloom. Many schools will reach the halfway point of their schedule this weekend. Another sign that Autumn is here in earnest–college football picks up another day, as the Wednesday night scheduling begins this week.

If it’s October, then it is time to start looking at bowl eligibility. Obviously, there are dynasties like Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and others that are going to a bowl with 100% certainty, and there are teams like Charlotte, Kansas, and Oregon State that are definitely not going to a bowl.

There are about 80 teams in position to become bowl eligible, and maybe 55 to 60 of these schools will earn it, while the other 20 to 25 will fall short. We call this time of year, Bowl Contention/Elimination Season (BCES). Each week, there will be games where the winner will stay in contention for a bowl, while the loser will either be severely damaged or outright eliminated from bowl contention. Let’s take a look at some of the early BCES games in October.

Illinois (2-2) at Iowa (3-2). The loser of this game cannot find a path to 6-6. Illinois must win this game and then defeat Rutgers, and then two from Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, and Northwestern. If the Illini cannot beat Iowa, they cannot win four others. Iowa’s offense is struggling with new a new quarterback, receivers, and running backs. They will have to squeak by three more opponents and have a tough closing schedule.

Duke (4-1) at Virginia (3-1). This is not a bowl elimination game. The winner of this one is in very good shape to become bowl eligible, in fact close to 100% likely with just one loss.

Pittsburgh (2-3) at Syracuse (2-3). This is a true bowl eliminator. The winner moves to 3-3 and stays in contention for a bowl at probably 6-6, while the loser is not going to win four more games.

Florida International (3-1) at Middle Tennessee (2-3). This was not how it was supposed to be this year in CUSA. Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and Middle Tennessee are struggling, while FIU is in contention for the East Division title. For Middle, they have serious injury issues on offense, namely their quarterback and top two receivers. FIU has improved each week under Butch Davis, and a win this week probably gives the Panthers anywhere from 85-90% chance of getting to six wins.

Minnesota (3-1) at Purdue (2-2). This is a trap game for Minnesota. After losing a tough home game to Maryland, the Gophers travel to West Lafayette to take on a much-improved, confident Boilermaker team that will be coming off a bye week and will be playing in the memory of former great PU coach Joe Tiller, who recently passed away. Jeff Brohm will have Purdue fired up to win this game, and at 3-2, Purdue will be more than Spoilermakers; they will be serious bowl contenders.

Tulsa (1-4) at Tulane (2-2). The winner still has a chance to make a bowl this year. The loser has no chance. Green Wave second year coach Willie Fritz will start getting noticed by the big schools if he guides Tulane to a bowl in his second year in New Orleans. Fritz worked wonders at Georgia Southern, and before that, he turned programs around at Sam Houston State and Central Missouri. Fritz’s offense is unique in college football. It may look a lot like Army, Navy, and Georgia Tech’s triple option offense, but it is nothing like those three. It is more similar to the old Nebraska offense with zone blocking rules and regular (double) options with power running and quick passing. His style of play might work in the Big 12 or even the SEC. He might get a chance to interview at an SEC school in December if TU can make a run to a bowl.

Arkansas (2-2) at South Carolina (3-2). If Arkansas loses this game, the Razorbacks are in serious jeopardy of not getting to six wins this year, and it could be one of three or four SEC schools looking to replace a coach. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is okay to stay if he goes 5-7, but Brett Bielema may have a tough time keeping the job in Fayetteville if he doesn’t get the Razorbacks to eight wins.

UL-Lafayette (1-3) at Idaho (2-2). It is hard to beat Idaho in the Kibbie Dome in Moscow. There will be very little chance that ULL will recover to 6-6 if they lose to the Vandals this week. On the other side of the field, Idaho must get to seven wins to have a legitimate chance at a bowl. The Sun Belt will not go to bat for the Vandals unless they force the issue, because Idaho is dropping to FCS at the end of this year and will no longer be a SBC member. Only if the SBC has no other options, will Idaho get a fair shake.

Florida Atlantic (2-3) at Old Dominion (2-2). The winner of this one moves into decent contention for a bowl. It is our opinion that CUSA will end up with more bowl eligible teams than bowl contracts, but there are always other leagues that cannot fill their allotment of bowl bids. Due to geography, this league has an advantage in placing at-large teams in bowls.

Arizona (2-2) at Colorado (3-2). Rich Rodriguez is in serious trouble in Tucson, and anything short of a bowl invitation should be the end of his tenure in the desert. The Wildcats would need three more wins if they beat the Buffaloes at Folsom Field this week, but finding three more wins is still a tough task. Colorado would need just two more wins if they hold off the Wildcats in Boulder, and Mike MacIntyre has job security in the Rockies.

The Playoff Race, or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love A Threepeat
At this point in the season, it might be insane to think that any team other than Alabama or Clemson has a chance to make it to the College Football National Championship Game. Sure, there are a lot of really good teams, some that might run the table and enter the playoffs at 13-0. But, at this point of the season, the two powers look to be in a league of their own, headed to a rubber match in Atlanta, which would be the perfect neutral site.
How rare is it for the same two teams to play for the Championship of a sport three years in a row? In one word–Very! College football has only had a playoff for a couple years, and before that a BCS Championship, so the chances have not been there for it to happen. It could be argued that from 1944 to 1946, Army and Notre Dame played in essence the National Championship Game when they faced off at Yankee Stadium, but those games were in-season, and there was no guarantee that the winner would be the champion.
In the NFL, no two Super Bowl teams have every played each other three years in a row. Prior to the Super Bowl era, The Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns played for the NFL title in 1952, 1953, and 1954.

The New York Giants and New York Yankees squared off in three consecutive World Series in 1921, 1922, and 1923. In the NBA, the Warriors and Cavaliers have played each other for the title the last three years, and in the NHL, even though for many years there were not even 10 total teams (just 6 for many of those years), it has still been rare. Detroit and Montreal met for the Stanley Cup in 1954, 1955, and 1956.

 

September 25, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 28-30, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:08 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

September 28-30        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Texas -7.3 -6.9 -6.6
Duke Miami (Fla.) -5.4 -4.4 -6.1
Illinois Nebraska -6.7 -7.0 -6.8
Utah St. BYU -7.2 -7.3 -8.7
Washington St. USC 0.3 -1.6 -0.2
Georgia Tech North Carolina 7.3 5.8 6.9
Temple Houston -8.4 -6.7 -8.4
Minnesota Maryland 10.8 8.3 10.6
Florida Vanderbilt 11.4 12.1 11.5
Pittsburgh Rice 28.8 28.0 27.9
Arkansas New Mexico St. 21.4 23.0 21.3
Wisconsin Northwestern 15.7 13.2 13.7
East Carolina South Florida -24.4 -20.8 -25.4
North Carolina St. Syracuse 11.5 12.5 12.2
Boston College Central Michigan 12.0 11.7 11.0
Army UTEP 28.3 24.2 29.1
Tulsa Navy 6.7 5.0 6.8
Penn St. Indiana 24.5 22.4 24.5
Wake Forest Florida St. -15.7 -14.8 -15.2
Massachusetts Ohio U -3.1 -5.6 -4.0
Tennessee Georgia -7.7 -10.5 -9.9
Kansas St. Baylor 16.2 13.8 16.5
Kent St. Buffalo 0.6 -1.0 -0.7
SMU Connecticut 14.4 11.5 14.4
Kentucky Eastern Michigan 21.4 20.2 21.3
Stanford Arizona St. 19.3 17.9 19.4
Michigan St. Iowa -10.4 -7.1 -9.4
Wyoming Texas St. 25.7 21.2 25.2
Notre Dame Miami (O) 23.1 19.5 21.8
Bowling Green Akron -0.6 -3.7 0.4
Auburn Mississippi St. 17.5 14.2 17.0
Louisiana Tech South Alabama 9.2 7.3 10.0
Southern Miss. North Texas 9.2 8.4 8.8
Western Michigan Ball St. 23.4 19.5 23.0
Florida Int’l. Charlotte 12.8 10.3 13.5
Louisiana-Monroe Coastal Carolina 13.4 12.5 10.3
LSU Troy 25.1 23.0 26.6
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee -4.9 -2.1 -4.3
Cincinnati Marshall 7.3 8.5 7.8
New Mexico Air Force 2.3 2.0 2.5
Central Florida Memphis 0.4 3.6 1.1
Rutgers Ohio St. -30.5 -27.7 -30.3
Texas A&M South Carolina 2.6 1.1 2.3
Virginia Tech Clemson -7.9 -5.5 -6.4
Texas Tech Oklahoma St. -16.3 -14.8 -18.5
Oregon St. Washington -34.4 -31.1 -36.6
Alabama Ole Miss 34.6 31.3 35.3
Fresno St. Nevada 7.6 3.2 6.2
UCLA Colorado -0.6 0.9 1.1
UNLV San Jose St. 10.7 14.0 11.9
Oregon California 14.3 14.0 14.9
San Diego St. Northern Illinois 17.0 17.3 17.7
Hawaii Colorado St. -11.2 -8.6 -11.3
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Louisville Murray St. 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings (What They Have Done To Date)
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Oklahoma
5 USC
6 Penn St.
7 Georgia
8 Michigan
9 Ohio St.
10 Wisconsin
11 Miami (Fla)
12 TCU
13 Virginia Tech
14 Louisville
15 LSU
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Washington St.
18 Florida
19 South Florida
20 Stanford
21 Utah
22 San Diego St.
23 Minnesota
24 Auburn
25 Iowa
26 Mississippi St.
27 Duke
28 Central Florida
29 Kansas St.
30 Wake Forest
31 Texas Tech
32 North Carolina St.
33 Tennessee
34 Colorado
35 Georgia Tech
36 Notre Dame
37 Houston
38 West Virginia
39 Texas A&M
40 Oregon
41 Florida St.
42 Kentucky
43 South Carolina
44 Navy
45 Toledo
46 Vanderbilt
47 California
48 Memphis
49 Michigan St.
50 Northwestern
51 UCLA
52 Texas
53 Western Michigan
54 Maryland
55 Nebraska
56 Boise St.
57 Ole Miss
58 Arizona St.
59 Purdue
60 Indiana
61 UTSA
62 Virginia
63 SMU
64 Iowa St.
65 Colorado St.
66 Appalachian St.
67 Arkansas
68 Tulsa
69 Air Force
70 Pittsburgh
71 North Carolina
72 Troy
73 Northern Illinois
74 Arizona
75 Western Kentucky
76 Temple
77 Louisiana Tech
78 Tulane
79 BYU
80 Arkansas St.
81 Army
82 Southern Miss.
83 Eastern Michigan
84 Syracuse
85 Boston College
86 New Mexico
87 Illinois
88 Ohio
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Wyoming
91 Cincinnati
92 Old Dominion
93 Baylor
94 Miami (O)
95 Marshall
96 Idaho
97 Oregon St.
98 Central Michigan
99 Utah St.
100 Rutgers
101 Missouri
102 New Mexico St.
103 Hawaii
104 North Texas
105 Ball St.
106 Buffalo
107 Fresno St.
108 UL-Lafayette
109 Akron
110 South Alabama
111 Coastal Carolina
112 UL-Monroe
113 Nevada
114 Connecticut
115 East Carolina
116 Florida Int’l.
117 UNLV
118 Georgia St.
119 UAB
120 Kansas
121 Georgia Southern
122 Massachusetts
123 Rice
124 Kent St.
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Bowling Green
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Texas St.
130 Charlotte

The Predictive Ratings–These concentrate on the future and do not always reflect what the teams have done in the past.  Thus, a team can be rated higher than another team that beat them earlier this season.

PiRate Rating–Our oldest rating is based on analysis of statistical data against the strength of schedule to date.  It is more concerned with yards per point and predicting how many yards each team will gain and surrender rather than prior points scored and surrendered.

Mean Rating–This is a more conservative statistical rating, using the mean (average) of five separate statistical and scoring data points.  Updating this rating takes up most of our time on Sundays.  Of the three ratings we submit, this one is the most independent of the other two.

Bias Rating–This rating differs from the PiRate Rating only in how the algorithm is calculated.  We give a bias to certain factors, giving these more weight than others.  It is the most liberal rating in that our updating for this one allows teams to rise and fall by more points each week than in our other two ratings.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 132.7 136.4 135.5
2 Washington 130.0 126.7 130.7 129.1
3 Clemson 130.1 127.1 129.4 128.9
4 Ohio St. 130.0 127.3 129.3 128.9
5 Penn St. 126.9 124.9 127.5 126.4
6 Oklahoma 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
7 Florida St. 124.5 122.8 123.6 123.7
8 Auburn 124.2 121.9 124.1 123.4
9 Oklahoma St. 123.0 121.3 124.1 122.8
10 Wisconsin 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
11 Georgia 119.5 120.4 119.8 119.9
12 U S C 120.0 119.5 119.9 119.8
13 Virginia Tech 119.2 118.6 120.0 119.2
14 T C U 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
15 Miami 118.9 116.6 118.3 117.9
16 Stanford 117.9 116.3 117.3 117.2
17 Michigan 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
18 Washington St. 117.3 114.9 116.7 116.3
19 Louisville 116.1 115.0 116.2 115.8
20 N. Carolina St. 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
21 L S U 115.4 113.6 116.1 115.0
22 Florida 115.5 114.7 114.8 115.0
23 Kansas St. 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
24 Notre Dame 114.1 112.7 114.6 113.8
25 Texas 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
26 Kentucky 112.9 111.5 112.6 112.3
27 Georgia Tech 113.7 111.2 111.7 112.2
28 Oregon 113.0 110.2 112.1 111.8
29 South Florida 111.7 110.0 112.7 111.5
30 Iowa 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
31 Colorado 111.8 109.7 109.6 110.3
32 Mississippi St. 109.8 110.7 110.0 110.2
33 Duke 111.0 109.7 109.7 110.1
34 West Virginia 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
35 Northwestern 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
36 Minnesota 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
37 N. Carolina 109.4 108.4 107.8 108.5
38 Central Florida 107.0 108.9 108.0 108.0
39 U C L A 108.2 107.6 107.7 107.8
40 Utah 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
41 Tennessee 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.5
42 Syracuse 107.3 105.7 106.6 106.5
43 Vanderbilt 107.1 105.6 106.3 106.3
44 Arkansas 106.5 106.0 106.2 106.3
45 Wake Forest 106.4 105.5 106.0 105.9
46 Indiana 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6
47 S. Carolina 105.4 104.8 104.4 104.9
48 Ole Miss 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
49 Memphis 105.1 103.9 105.3 104.7
50 Pittsburgh 104.7 105.0 104.0 104.6
51 Colo. State 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
52 Houston 104.7 103.7 104.6 104.3
53 Texas A&M 105.0 102.9 103.7 103.9
54 Iowa State 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
55 Virginia 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
56 San Diego St. 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.3
57 Texas Tech 103.7 103.4 102.6 103.2
58 Maryland 101.7 104.0 101.7 102.4
59 Purdue 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
60 Baylor 100.9 103.0 100.9 101.6
61 Arizona St. 101.7 101.3 100.9 101.3
62 Nebraska 100.8 102.4 99.9 101.0
63 Tulsa 100.7 100.3 100.7 100.6
64 California 101.7 99.2 100.1 100.3
65 Toledo 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
66 Michigan St. 98.1 101.1 98.8 99.3
67 Navy 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
68 Western Michigan 99.4 97.6 100.7 99.2
69 Arizona 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
70 BYU 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
71 Boston College 98.8 99.2 98.2 98.7
72 SMU 98.2 98.3 98.6 98.4
73 Boise St. 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
75 U T S A 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
76 Army 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4
77 Rutgers 96.5 96.6 95.9 96.3
78 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
79 Miami (O) 94.0 96.2 95.8 95.3
80 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
81 Air Force 93.8 94.1 94.2 94.0
82 Eastern Michigan 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.9
83 W. Kentucky 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
84 Wyoming 94.6 93.1 93.2 93.6
85 New Mexico 93.1 93.1 93.7 93.3
86 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.5 93.1
87 Temple 92.5 93.2 92.4 92.7
88 Middle Tennessee 91.9 92.4 92.4 92.2
89 Cincinnati 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
90 Oregon St. 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
91 Illinois 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.8 92.4 91.7 91.6
93 Louisiana Tech 90.4 91.4 91.3 91.1
94 Hawaii 89.8 90.8 89.8 90.1
95 Central Michigan 89.3 90.0 89.6 89.6
96 Utah St. 90.2 89.3 89.2 89.6
97 Old Dominion 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
98 Northern Illinois 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
99 Arkansas St. 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
100 Kansas 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
101 Fresno St. 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
102 U N L V 87.0 89.9 87.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
104 N. Mexico St. 88.0 86.0 88.0 87.3
105 Connecticut 85.7 88.8 86.0 86.8
106 Marshall 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
107 Nevada 84.0 86.8 85.7 85.5
108 Florida Atlantic 84.0 87.3 85.1 85.5
109 Massachusetts 85.7 84.8 85.7 85.4
110 S. Alabama 84.2 87.1 84.4 85.2
111 Buffalo 83.3 86.0 85.3 84.9
112 Georgia St. 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
113 Idaho 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
114 UL-Lafayette 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
115 Akron 83.0 86.5 82.8 84.1
116 East Carolina 83.0 84.9 83.0 83.6
117 N. Texas 81.6 83.4 81.8 82.3
118 Kent St. 81.4 82.6 82.1 82.0
119 Florida Int’l. 81.6 81.7 82.6 82.0
120 UL-Monroe 81.4 81.9 80.0 81.1
121 Bowling Green 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
122 Ball St. 79.0 81.1 80.7 80.3
123 Georgia Southern 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
124 Rice 78.4 79.5 78.6 78.8
125 San Jose St. 78.8 78.4 78.0 78.4
126 Charlotte 71.9 74.4 72.1 72.8
127 Texas St. 71.9 74.8 71.0 72.6
128 U T E P 70.9 74.7 71.0 72.2
129 Coastal Carolina 70.5 71.9 72.2 71.6
130 UAB 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 1-0 4-0 111.7 110.0 112.7 111.5
Central Florida 0-0 2-0 107.0 108.9 108.0 108.0
Temple 0-1 2-2 92.5 93.2 92.4 92.7
Cincinnati 0-1 2-2 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
Connecticut 0-1 1-2 85.7 88.8 86.0 86.8
East Carolina 1-0 1-3 83.0 84.9 83.0 83.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 3-0 105.1 103.9 105.3 104.7
Houston 0-0 2-1 104.7 103.7 104.6 104.3
Tulsa 0-0 1-3 100.7 100.3 100.7 100.6
Navy 2-0 3-0 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
SMU 0-0 3-1 98.2 98.3 98.6 98.4
Tulane 0-1 2-2 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
             
AAC Averages     97.7 98.3 98.1 98.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 2-0 4-0 130.1 127.1 129.4 128.9
Florida St. 0-1 0-2 124.5 122.8 123.6 123.7
Louisville 1-1 3-2 116.1 115.0 116.2 115.8
N. Carolina St. 1-0 3-1 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
Syracuse 0-0 2-2 107.3 105.7 106.6 106.5
Wake Forest 1-0 4-0 106.4 105.5 106.0 105.9
Boston College 0-2 1-3 98.8 99.2 98.2 98.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 0-0 4-0 119.2 118.6 120.0 119.2
Miami 0-0 2-0 118.9 116.6 118.3 117.9
Georgia Tech 1-0 2-1 113.7 111.2 111.7 112.2
Duke 1-0 4-0 111.0 109.7 109.7 110.1
N. Carolina 0-2 1-3 109.4 108.4 107.8 108.5
Pittsburgh 0-1 1-3 104.7 105.0 104.0 104.6
Virginia 0-0 3-1 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
Oklahoma St. 0-1 3-1 123.0 121.3 124.1 122.8
T C U 1-0 4-0 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
Kansas St. 0-0 2-1 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
Texas 0-0 1-2 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
West Virginia 1-0 3-1 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
Iowa State 0-0 2-1 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
Texas Tech 0-0 3-0 103.7 103.4 102.6 103.2
Baylor 0-1 0-4 100.9 103.0 100.9 101.6
Kansas 0-1 1-3 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.1 110.2 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 3-1 130.0 127.3 129.3 128.9
Penn St. 1-0 4-0 126.9 124.9 127.5 126.4
Michigan 1-0 4-0 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
Indiana 0-1 2-1 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6
Maryland 0-0 2-1 101.7 104.0 101.7 102.4
Michigan St. 0-0 2-1 98.1 101.1 98.8 99.3
Rutgers 0-1 1-3 96.5 96.6 95.9 96.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 3-0 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
Iowa 0-1 3-1 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
Northwestern 0-0 2-1 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-0 3-0 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
Purdue 0-1 2-2 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
Nebraska 1-0 2-2 100.8 102.4 99.9 101.0
Illinois 0-0 2-1 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.7 108.5 108.7
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 2-2 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
Middle Tennessee 0-0 2-2 91.9 92.4 92.4 92.2
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
Marshall 0-0 2-1 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-3 84.0 87.3 85.1 85.5
Florida Int’l. 1-0 2-1 81.6 81.7 82.6 82.0
Charlotte 0-0 0-4 71.9 74.4 72.1 72.8
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 3-0 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
Louisiana Tech 1-0 2-2 90.4 91.4 91.3 91.1
Southern Miss. 0-0 2-1 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
N. Texas 1-0 2-2 81.6 83.4 81.8 82.3
Rice 1-1 1-3 78.4 79.5 78.6 78.8
U T E P 0-1 0-4 70.9 74.7 71.0 72.2
UAB 0-1 2-2 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.5 85.2 84.3 84.3
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   3-1 114.1 112.7 114.6 113.8
BYU   1-3 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
Army   2-2 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4
Massachusetts   0-5 85.7 84.8 85.7 85.4
             
Indep. Averages     98.7 97.9 99.2 98.6
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 1-0 2-2 94.0 96.2 95.8 95.3
Ohio U 1-0 3-1 90.8 92.4 91.7 91.6
Buffalo 0-0 2-2 83.3 86.0 85.3 84.9
Akron 0-0 1-3 83.0 86.5 82.8 84.1
Kent St. 0-0 1-3 81.4 82.6 82.1 82.0
Bowling Green 0-0 0-4 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 3-1 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
Western Michigan 0-0 2-2 99.4 97.6 100.7 99.2
Eastern Michigan 0-1 2-1 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.9
Central Michigan 0-1 2-2 89.3 90.0 89.6 89.6
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
Ball St. 0-0 2-2 79.0 81.1 80.7 80.3
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.7 89.5 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 2-2 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
Boise St. 1-0 2-2 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
Air Force 0-1 1-2 93.8 94.1 94.2 94.0
Wyoming 1-0 2-2 94.6 93.1 93.2 93.6
New Mexico 0-1 2-2 93.1 93.1 93.7 93.3
Utah St. 1-0 2-2 90.2 89.3 89.2 89.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 4-0 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.3
Hawaii 0-1 2-2 89.8 90.8 89.8 90.1
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
U N L V 0-0 1-2 87.0 89.9 87.4 88.1
Nevada 0-0 0-4 84.0 86.8 85.7 85.5
San Jose St. 0-1 1-4 78.8 78.4 78.0 78.4
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 1-0 4-0 130.0 126.7 130.7 129.1
Stanford 1-1 2-2 117.9 116.3 117.3 117.2
Washington St. 1-0 4-0 117.3 114.9 116.7 116.3
Oregon 0-1 3-1 113.0 110.2 112.1 111.8
California 0-1 3-1 101.7 99.2 100.1 100.3
Oregon St. 0-1 1-3 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 2-0 4-0 120.0 119.5 119.9 119.8
Colorado 0-1 3-1 111.8 109.7 109.6 110.3
U C L A 0-1 2-2 108.2 107.6 107.7 107.8
Utah 1-0 4-0 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
Arizona St. 1-0 2-2 101.7 101.3 100.9 101.3
Arizona 0-1 2-2 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 1-0 4-0 119.5 120.4 119.8 119.9
Florida 2-0 2-1 115.5 114.7 114.8 115.0
Kentucky 1-1 3-1 112.9 111.5 112.6 112.3
Tennessee 0-1 3-1 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.5
Vanderbilt 0-1 3-1 107.1 105.6 106.3 106.3
S. Carolina 1-1 3-1 105.4 104.8 104.4 104.9
Missouri 0-2 1-3 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 1-0 4-0 137.5 132.7 136.4 135.5
Auburn 1-0 3-1 124.2 121.9 124.1 123.4
L S U 0-1 3-1 115.4 113.6 116.1 115.0
Mississippi St. 1-1 3-1 109.8 110.7 110.0 110.2
Arkansas 0-1 1-2 106.5 106.0 106.2 106.3
Ole Miss 0-0 2-1 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
Texas A&M 1-0 3-1 105.0 102.9 103.7 103.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.5 111.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-2 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
Troy 1-0 3-1 93.3 93.6 92.5 93.1
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
N. Mexico St. 0-1 2-2 88.0 86.0 88.0 87.3
S. Alabama 0-1 1-3 84.2 87.1 84.4 85.2
Georgia St. 0-0 1-2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
Idaho 1-0 2-2 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
UL-Lafayette 0-1 1-3 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
UL-Monroe 1-0 1-2 81.4 81.9 80.0 81.1
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-3 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
Texas St. 0-1 1-3 71.9 74.8 71.0 72.6
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-2 70.5 71.9 72.2 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.0 84.8 84.0 84.3

How The Conferences Rate

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.5 111.5
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.7 108.5 108.7
6 INDEP. 98.7 97.9 99.2 98.6
7 AAC 97.7 98.3 98.1 98.0
8 MWC 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.6 89.7 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.5 85.2 84.3 84.3
11 Sun Belt 84.0 84.8 84.0 84.3

Alabama Takes Commanding Lead
Alabama’s most recent victory, a 59-0 pasting of Vanderbilt, propelled the top-ranked Tide into a rather lofty status this week. With the win, accompanied by unimpressive wins by Clemson and Oklahoma, Alabama has now opened a better than six-point cushion in the PiRate Ratings over the number two team. It is not often in PiRate Ratings’ history that a number one team has been rated more than six points ahead of the number two team. It puts ‘Bama in esteemed company. Since our ratings started in 1969, only two other number one teams held a greater than six-point edge over the number two team at the end of a season. Unfortunately, we do not have in-season information on our ratings prior to 1989.

If you were wondering, the other two teams that held a better than six-point edge on the field were Miami (Fla.) in 2001 and Nebraska in 1995. This does not mean that Alabama is one of the three best teams in our history; it just means they are in line to become one of three of the most dominant in a single season when compared to others from that particular year.  Alabama’s current rating is still historically lower than many others, namely Nebraska and Oklahoma of 1971, USC of 1972, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma of 1973, Oklahoma of 1974, Miami (Fla.) of 1987, USC of 2004, and Texas of 2005.
New Number Two
Speaking of number two, there is a new team in that position yet again. To date, the number two team has changed each week. This week, that distinguished honor goes to Washington (although Clemson stayed number two in our retrodictive ratings).

Best Group of 5
South Florida and San Diego State opened a little room over most of the rest of the Group of 5 field in the quest to receive the lone automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid awarded to this group.  However, one new team moved into contention to make this an interesting three-team race at this point. Central Florida not only won at Maryland, they destroyed the Terps. UCF Head Coach Scott Frost just established himself as a potential front-runner to return to his alma mater the moment Nebraska makes its next coaching change.

The Three Best Games This Week
The ACC passed the SEC in PiRate Rating superiority last week and slightly widened that lead this past weekend. Now, it showcases two of the top three games of this week.

Clemson may have been looking ahead to this week and thus failed to thrive for more than a half against Boston College. The Tigers face what is probably their stiffest test of the regular season with a trip to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech in the Saturday night prime-time game on ABC. Virginia Tech’s defense may be strong enough to keep the Hokies in the game and give Tech a legitimate chance at the upset.

Miami visits Durham to take on Duke in a game that will go far in deciding who will contend with Virginia Tech in the Coastal Division.

The other key game this week takes place Friday Night in the Palouse, where USC invades Pullman to take on Washington State. It promises to be a game with a lot of passing yards and total points scored, and it might be one of those four-hour marathons. It just could be the most exciting game of September.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 21-23, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:15 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
South Florida Temple 18.3 15.9 19.4
Boise St. Virginia 5.1 3.0 3.2
Arizona Utah -3.6 -6.7 -5.6
Appalachian St. Wake Forest -6.1 -7.6 -5.5
North Carolina Duke 2.7 2.8 2.6
Purdue Michigan -11.7 -9.6 -10.2
Georgia Tech Pittsburgh 10.8 8.0 9.5
Iowa Penn St. -14.3 -12.2 -15.6
Clemson Boston College 36.5 31.9 36.8
Florida St. North Carolina St. 16.5 14.8 16.1
Georgia Mississippi St. 7.7 8.2 7.3
South Carolina Louisiana Tech 22.1 20.1 20.2
Tennessee Massachusetts 31.5 30.3 29.8
Kansas West Virginia -18.4 -15.9 -19.0
Kentucky Florida 0.5 -0.1 1.0
Maryland Central Florida 5.9 6.0 5.1
Louisville Kent St. 37.5 34.8 36.7
Eastern Michigan Ohio U 6.9 4.7 6.0
Central Michigan Miami (O) 1.3 -0.8 -0.4
Virginia Tech Old Dominion 31.1 27.6 31.1
Charlotte Georgia St. -6.7 -3.4 -6.1
Indiana Georgia Southern 28.1 26.8 28.9
Buffalo Florida Atlantic 2.1 1.5 3.0
Nebraska Rutgers 6.9 8.6 6.4
Miami (Fla.) Toledo 22.0 19.7 19.5
Colorado Washington -12.3 -10.9 -15.2
New Mexico St. UTEP 18.0 11.4 16.8
Navy Cincinnati 11.2 9.9 9.4
Ohio St. UNLV 44.7 39.0 43.5
Michigan St. Notre Dame -11.7 -6.4 -11.1
Wyoming Hawaii 11.2 7.5 9.8
Tulsa New Mexico 14.0 13.2 13.6
LSU Syracuse 11.2 11.2 12.7
Troy Akron 14.1 10.5 13.6
Middle Tennessee Bowling Green 14.3 14.4 14.0
Missouri Auburn -21.3 -21.8 -22.2
Houston Texas Tech 4.6 3.7 5.6
SMU Arkansas St. 10.8 9.4 9.4
Vanderbilt Alabama -18.3 -15.4 -17.8
Tulane Army 0.7 1.5 0.1
Oklahoma St. TCU 14.2 15.1 15.7
Western Kentucky Ball St. 17.8 14.3 17.4
North Texas UAB 20.3 17.0 18.3
Texas St. UTSA -19.2 -18.0 -22.4
Air Force San Diego St. -6.3 -6.0 -7.2
Texas A&M Arkansas 1.1 -0.5 -0.1
Rice Florida Int’l. 0.1 0.9 -0.7
South Alabama Idaho 4.9 5.6 4.1
UL-Lafayette UL-Monroe 5.4 6.3 6.7
Baylor Oklahoma -25.9 -21.3 -27.2
California USC -16.4 -18.4 -18.2
Washington St. Nevada 36.0 30.2 33.2
Arizona St. Oregon -11.0 -7.1 -11.2
Stanford UCLA 9.8 9.2 9.3
San Jose St. Utah St. 0.3 0.8 0.5
Connecticut East Carolina 6.6 7.9 7.5
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Coastal Carolina Western Illinois 5
Western Michigan Wagner 40
Memphis Southern Illinois 26

Same Two Again?
With Clemson’s dominating win at Louisville, our ratings now show the top two teams from last year resuming the top two spots again this season. For now, Alabama stays ahead of Clemson in our ratings, but internally, our Retrodictive Ratings show that Clemson is less than .2 point behind the Tide and just .5 point behind ‘Bama in the Predictive Ratings.

Who at this point looks like the best contenders for the other two Playoff spots? Oklahoma figures in as a high contender, but then so does Oklahoma State. If either runs the table, they are in. Out west, Washington and USC hold the top two spots, but Washington State, Utah, and Colorado are still in contention, as is a Dark Horse Cal Bears team.

In the Big Ten, Penn State has the look of a team that can go into the Horseshoe and do the same thing to Ohio State that Oklahoma did. Michigan is chugging along but looks to be missing something and probably cannot run the table. Ohio State is still in the Big Ten race, but to make the Playoffs now, the Buckeyes must start winning consistently and take out all Big Ten foes. In the West, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota are in contention but any of these teams will have to run the table to make it to the Final Four.

Aside from the Crimson Tide, Georgia and Mississippi State have chances to earn a playoff spot. The two Bulldogs face off in what has become a very important contest on Saturday.

Top Group of 5 Teams
Two teams appear to be at the top of the list for the Group of 5 Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid, but there are plenty of contenders, and it is much too early to call any one team convincingly ahead of the rest.

South Florida has had a little difficulty early in their games, but once the Bulls get on track, they play competently enough to run the table and earn that NY6 Bowl. San Diego State actually has a bigger win, having just knocked off Stanford, but the Aztecs still have a difficult couple of games to take the bid. Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Toledo, and Navy are the top contenders for now.

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

(like a poll based on what they have done to date)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Oklahoma
5 USC
6 Penn St.
7 LSU
8 Ohio St.
9 Oklahoma St.
10 Wisconsin
11 Michigan
12 Miami (Fla)
13 Georgia
14 Louisville
15 Florida St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Mississippi St.
18 TCU
19 Auburn
20 Stanford
21 Utah
22 Washington St.
23 Iowa
24 Florida
25 Colorado
26 Kansas St.
27 Tennessee
28 Minnesota
29 Houston
30 San Diego St.
31 South Florida
32 Georgia Tech
33 Wake Forest
34 Oregon
35 Notre Dame
36 Vanderbilt
37 West Virginia
38 Boise St.
39 Toledo
40 Duke
41 Kentucky
42 Michigan St.
43 South Carolina
44 UCLA
45 Maryland
46 California
47 Texas A&M
48 North Carolina St.
49 Memphis
50 Northwestern
51 Navy
52 Texas
53 Western Michigan
54 Texas Tech
55 Tulsa
56 Arkansas
57 North Carolina
58 Air Force
59 Ole Miss
60 Pittsburgh
61 Nebraska
62 Colorado St.
63 Appalachian St.
64 Central Florida
65 Temple
66 Purdue
67 UTSA
68 Iowa St.
69 Indiana
70 Arizona
71 Northern Illinois
72 Army
73 Troy
74 Louisiana Tech
75 Arkansas St.
76 Western Kentucky
77 SMU
78 BYU
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Syracuse
81 Southern Miss.
82 Boston College
83 Old Dominion
84 Illinois
85 Tulane
86 Cincinnati
87 Virginia
88 Ohio
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Arizona St.
91 Wyoming
92 New Mexico
93 Baylor
94 Central Michigan
95 Marshall
96 Missouri
97 Oregon St.
98 Rutgers
99 Miami (O)
100 Hawaii
101 Ball St.
102 Idaho
103 UL-Lafayette
104 Coastal Carolina
105 Utah St.
106 New Mexico St.
107 Akron
108 South Alabama
109 North Texas
110 Fresno St.
111 Buffalo
112 Connecticut
113 Nevada
114 UAB
115 Georgia Southern
116 UL-Monroe
117 San Jose St.
118 Kansas
119 Rice
120 UNLV
121 East Carolina
122 Kent St.
123 Florida Atlantic
124 Florida Int’l.
125 Bowling Green
126 Georgia St.
127 UTEP
128 Texas St.
129 Massachusetts
130 Charlotte

PiRate Predictive Ratings

(tries to predict the outcome of the next game on each team’s schedule)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 132.2 127.6 131.0 130.3
2 Clemson 131.2 127.6 130.7 129.8
3 Ohio St. 129.2 126.5 128.5 128.1
4 Oklahoma 128.1 125.9 129.1 127.7
5 Washington 128.4 125.0 129.1 127.5
6 Penn St. 127.7 125.5 128.5 127.2
7 Oklahoma St. 126.1 124.4 127.6 126.0
8 Florida St. 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
9 Auburn 122.7 120.6 122.5 121.9
10 Wisconsin 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
11 U S C 120.8 120.3 120.9 120.7
12 Virginia Tech 118.3 117.5 118.9 118.2
13 Miami 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
14 Georgia 116.7 117.9 116.8 117.1
15 Stanford 116.6 115.2 115.8 115.9
16 Washington St. 117.0 114.3 116.1 115.8
17 Michigan 116.2 115.8 115.4 115.8
18 Louisville 116.0 114.7 116.0 115.6
19 L S U 115.5 113.7 116.2 115.1
20 Florida 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
21 Kansas St. 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
22 T C U 114.9 112.3 114.9 114.0
23 Texas 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
24 N. Carolina St. 113.4 113.1 113.1 113.2
25 Oregon 114.3 110.8 113.6 112.9
26 Notre Dame 113.3 111.5 113.6 112.8
27 Mississippi St. 112.1 112.7 112.5 112.4
28 Kentucky 113.0 111.5 112.7 112.4
29 Colorado 113.1 111.1 110.9 111.7
30 Georgia Tech 113.1 110.6 111.1 111.6
31 Tennessee 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
32 Iowa 110.4 110.3 109.9 110.2
33 Vanderbilt 110.9 109.2 110.2 110.1
34 N. Carolina 110.8 109.7 109.3 109.9
35 South Florida 109.9 108.2 110.9 109.7
36 Northwestern 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
37 U C L A 109.8 109.0 109.5 109.4
38 West Virginia 109.1 109.9 109.1 109.4
39 Minnesota 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
40 Duke 109.6 108.4 108.2 108.7
41 Utah 106.6 108.7 107.0 107.4
42 S. Carolina 107.6 106.8 106.6 107.0
43 Arkansas 106.7 106.2 106.5 106.5
44 Syracuse 107.2 105.6 106.5 106.4
45 Maryland 105.6 107.7 105.7 106.3
46 Wake Forest 106.7 105.8 106.3 106.2
47 Indiana 105.0 105.1 105.4 105.2
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 105.6 104.6 105.2
49