FBS Independents Preview

In 1971, there were 34 major college independents playing football. In 2022, there are seven independents, and the ranks are going to shrink soon. Liberty and New Mexico State will join Conference USA next year. BYU is headed to the Big 12. The question remains what will Notre Dame do?

Can the Irish afford to remain an independent? By the time the season starts, we may know the answer. With NBC rumored to be ready to pay big bucks to get a weekly Big Ten game in prime time, there may be little need to offer Notre Dame the vault the Irish desire. The Big Ten may be on the precipice of paying out 9-figures to its teams. If the Irish are only offered 30 to 40 million dollars, they may be willing to become Big Ten team number 17.

Of the seven indies this year, four figure to be good, and three will struggle to win three ball games apiece.

FBS Independents PiRate Ratings

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	119.0	117.0	118.9	118.3
BYU	112.1	110.1	112.1	111.4
Army	98.5	99.2	99.1	98.9
Liberty	95.3	97.4	97.9	96.9
Connecticut	77.5	79.0	74.5	77.0
New Mexico St.	74.8	77.1	74.0	75.3
Massachusetts	75.2	75.9	72.6	74.6
Independents	93.2	93.7	92.7	93.2

There are no official Independent Media Polls like there are for conferences, but I have included the consensus of seven of my friends that produce computer ratings like the PiRate Ratings.

Computer Power Rating Poll

#	West	1st Place	Overall
1	Notre Dame	6	48
2	BYU	0	40
3	Army	1	38
4	Liberty	0	28
5	N. Mexico St.	0	18
6	Connecticut	0	15
7	U Mass	0	9

The PiRate Rating are designed to be used for the next week of football games and not meant to be used to predict won-loss records. Nevertheless, here are the projected won-loss records.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

Team	W-L
Notre Dame	11-1
Army	9-3
BYU	9-3
Liberty	8-4
New Mexico St.	3-9
Connecticut	3-9
Massachusetts	2-10

PiRate Ratings College Football–Selection Sunday

This Week’s College Football Game

December 11		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Navy	11.2	11.4	10.4

Final Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Added Bowl Game*	Ball St.	Nevada
Bahamas	Middle Tennessee	Toledo
Cure	SMU	Appalachian St.
Boca	Kent St.	Liberty
New Mexico	UTEP	San Diego St.
Independence	BYU	UTSA
Lending Tree	Central Michigan	Marshall
L. A.	Utah St.	Oregon St.
New Orleans	UAB	Coastal Carolina
Myrtle Beach	Old Dominion	Georgia St.
Famous Idaho Potato	Western Michigan	Boise St.
Frisco	North Texas	Air Force
Armed Forces	Tulsa	Army
Gasparilla	Louisville	Florida
Hawaii	Memphis	Hawaii
Camellia	Northern Illinois	Louisiana
Quick Lane	Eastern Michigan	Wyoming
Military	Virginia	East Carolina
Birmingham	Houston	South Carolina
First Responder	Western Kentucky	Missouri
Liberty	West Virginia	Mississippi St.
Holiday	North Carolina St.	UCLA
Guaranteed Rate	Maryland	Texas Tech
Fenway	Central Florida	Boston College
Pinstripe	Virginia Tech	Penn St.
Cheez-It	Clemson	Iowa St.
Alamo	Oklahoma	Oregon
Duke’s Mayo	Wake Forest	Tennessee
Music City	Purdue	Auburn
Las Vegas	Wisconsin	Washington St.
Tax Slayer Gator	Miami (Fla.)	Arkansas
Tony The Tiger Sun	North Carolina	Arizona St.
Arizona	Miami (O)	Fresno St.
Citrus	Iowa	Kentucky
Outback	Minnesota	Texas A&M
Texas	Kansas St.	LSU
Peach	Pitt/Wake	Notre Dame
Fiesta	Michigan St.	Oklahoma St.
Rose	Ohio St.	Utah
Sugar	Baylor	Ole Miss
Cotton	Michigan	Georgia
Orange	Alabama	Cincinnati
Championship	Alabama	Georgia

• An extra bowl game was added by the NCAA to ensure all 6-win teams could earn bowl invitations. This extra bowl will be played in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and will include two group of 5 teams.
• Teams in bold have officially accepted the bowl bid.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	133.8
2	Alabama	132.9
3	Ohio St.	130.4
4	Michigan	127.5
5	Notre Dame	121.9
6	Oklahoma St.	121.5
7	Utah	121.2
8	Oklahoma	120.4
9	Iowa St.	120.1
10	Cincinnati	119.6
11	Texas A&M	118.6
12	Clemson	117.2
13	Wisconsin	116.5
14	Ole Miss	116.2
15	Baylor	116.1
16	U C L A	115.0
17	Penn St.	114.8
18	Arkansas	114.7
19	Auburn	114.1
20	Pittsburgh	113.9
21	Kentucky	113.1
22	NC State	112.7
23	Mississippi St.	112.0
24	Tennessee	111.9
25	L S U	111.5
26	Purdue	111.4
27	Minnesota	111.1
28	Arizona St.	110.3
29	Oregon St.	110.3
30	North Carolina	110.2
31	Miami (Fla.)	110.1
32	BYU	109.8
33	Louisiana	109.7
34	Florida	109.6
35	West Virginia	109.4
36	Wake Forest	109.3
37	Kansas St.	109.3
38	Nebraska	109.3
39	Iowa	109.3
40	Appalachian St.	109.2
41	Washington St.	109.2
42	Oregon	109.0
43	Michigan St.	108.2
44	Texas	107.5
45	Boise St.	106.4
46	Houston	106.0
47	Nevada	105.4
48	Louisville	105.3
49	Florida St.	105.3
50	Coastal Carolina	104.7
51	California	104.6
52	Texas Tech	104.2
53	Fresno St.	104.1
54	Air Force	103.9
55	U S C	103.6
56	Virginia	103.4
57	Washington	103.1
58	Virginia Tech	102.6
59	Army	102.5
60	Central Michigan	102.1
61	T C U	101.8
62	SMU	101.8
63	Illinois	101.6
64	Western Kentucky	101.4
65	South Carolina	100.6
66	Missouri	100.3
67	East Carolina	100.0
68	Maryland	99.9
69	Utah St.	99.5
70	Toledo	99.4
71	Boston College	99.3
72	UCF	98.8
73	Tulsa	98.7
74	Georgia St.	98.7
75	Liberty	98.6
76	Colorado	98.6
77	Miami (Ohio)	98.4
78	San Diego St.	98.4
79	U A B	98.2
80	Syracuse	97.9
81	U T S A	97.7
82	Tulane	95.2
83	Georgia Tech	95.1
84	Memphis	94.6
85	Western Michigan	94.5
86	Stanford	94.3
87	Marshall	94.3
88	Rutgers	93.8
89	Ball St.	93.8
90	Indiana	93.3
91	Hawaii	92.9
92	Wyoming	92.4
93	Arizona	92.3
94	Eastern Michigan	92.1
95	Northwestern	91.9
96	Northern Illinois	91.7
97	Navy	91.5
98	Kent St.	90.4
99	North Texas	90.3
100	Middle Tennessee	90.2
101	South Alabama	89.8
102	Colorado St.	88.9
103	San Jose St.	88.6
104	Buffalo	88.3
105	Troy	88.0
106	USF	87.4
107	Georgia Southern	87.0
108	Florida Atlantic	86.3
109	Ohio	86.1
110	Kansas	85.7
111	Old Dominion	85.7
112	U N L V	85.2
113	U T E P	84.5
114	Vanderbilt	84.0
115	UL-Monroe	83.2
116	Texas St.	83.0
117	Arkansas St.	82.8
118	Duke	80.2
119	Rice	80.0
120	Louisiana Tech	79.7
121	New Mexico	78.0
122	Southern Miss.	77.6
123	Bowling Green	77.1
124	Charlotte	77.0
125	Akron	72.5
126	Temple	72.4
127	New Mexico St.	71.8
128	Connecticut	68.6
129	Florida Int’l.	65.9
130	UMass	64.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.3	118.9	120.7	119.6
Houston	105.9	105.4	106.6	106.0
SMU	101.7	101.5	102.1	101.8
East Carolina	99.8	99.5	100.8	100.0
UCF	99.0	97.7	99.8	98.8
Tulsa	98.5	98.5	99.1	98.7
Tulane	95.2	94.2	96.1	95.2
Memphis	94.1	94.3	95.3	94.6
Navy	91.3	91.1	92.1	91.5
USF	87.4	86.9	88.0	87.4
Temple	72.3	73.0	71.8	72.4
AAC Averages	96.8	96.5	97.5	96.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	116.7	116.8	118.0	117.2
NC State	112.5	112.3	113.2	112.7
Wake Forest	109.3	109.1	109.6	109.3
Louisville	104.9	105.0	105.9	105.3
Florida St.	104.9	105.2	105.7	105.3
Boston College	99.4	99.2	99.3	99.3
Syracuse	98.0	98.0	97.8	97.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	113.4	114.3	114.2	113.9
North Carolina	109.7	109.7	111.1	110.2
Miami (Fla.)	110.4	109.8	110.2	110.1
Virginia	103.3	103.8	103.0	103.4
Virginia Tech	103.0	102.5	102.4	102.6
Georgia Tech	95.1	95.1	95.0	95.1
Duke	80.6	80.7	79.3	80.2
ACC Averages	104.4	104.4	104.6	104.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma St.	121.8	121.5	121.3	121.5
Oklahoma	121.2	119.6	120.3	120.4
Iowa St.	120.8	119.4	120.1	120.1
Baylor	116.5	115.9	115.8	116.1
West Virginia	110.7	109.1	108.4	109.4
Kansas St.	110.1	109.3	108.5	109.3
Texas	108.5	106.8	107.2	107.5
Texas Tech	104.5	104.5	103.7	104.2
T C U	102.9	101.4	101.2	101.8
Kansas	87.4	85.7	83.9	85.7
Big 12 Averages	110.4	109.3	109.0	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	130.0	130.0	131.3	130.4
Michigan	126.6	127.5	128.4	127.5
Penn St.	114.0	114.6	115.8	114.8
Michigan St.	108.0	108.1	108.6	108.2
Maryland	100.6	99.7	99.4	99.9
Rutgers	93.2	94.7	93.5	93.8
Indiana	93.3	93.0	93.4	93.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	116.1	115.9	117.3	116.5
Purdue	110.8	110.8	112.6	111.4
Minnesota	110.3	111.0	112.2	111.1
Nebraska	109.0	109.1	109.8	109.3
Iowa	109.1	108.9	109.9	109.3
Illinois	101.1	101.6	102.2	101.6
Northwestern	92.0	92.0	91.8	91.9
Big Ten Averages	108.2	108.4	109.0	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	100.3	101.7	102.2	101.4
Marshall	94.0	94.3	94.7	94.3
Middle Tennessee	89.7	90.2	90.7	90.2
Florida Atlantic	86.0	86.7	86.2	86.3
Old Dominion	84.8	85.9	86.3	85.7
Charlotte	76.6	77.2	77.2	77.0
Florida Int’l.	65.9	65.9	65.8	65.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.0	98.4	98.3	98.2
U T S A	97.2	98.0	98.0	97.7
North Texas	89.9	90.5	90.6	90.3
U T E P	84.2	85.2	84.0	84.5
Rice	80.1	80.1	79.8	80.0
Louisiana Tech	80.0	80.2	78.8	79.7
Southern Miss.	77.4	78.0	77.4	77.6
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.4	86.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	121.1	121.9	122.7	121.9
BYU	109.8	109.5	110.0	109.8
Army	102.5	102.5	102.5	102.5
Liberty	98.5	98.6	98.6	98.6
New Mexico St.	72.1	72.7	70.7	71.8
Connecticut	69.0	69.5	67.2	68.6
UMass	65.2	64.6	62.4	64.1
Indep. Averages	91.2	91.3	90.6	91.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.6	98.3	97.3	98.4
Kent St.	90.4	91.1	89.7	90.4
Buffalo	89.2	88.1	87.5	88.3
Ohio	86.0	86.5	85.9	86.1
Bowling Green	77.6	77.8	75.8	77.1
Akron	73.6	72.6	71.4	72.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	102.9	101.8	101.5	102.1
Toledo	99.8	99.4	98.9	99.4
Western Michigan	94.8	94.8	93.7	94.5
Ball St.	94.8	94.2	92.5	93.8
Eastern Michigan	93.4	92.1	90.8	92.1
Northern Illinois	92.5	91.7	90.9	91.7
MAC Averages	91.2	90.7	89.7	90.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	106.3	106.7	106.4
Air Force	103.5	103.8	104.5	103.9
Utah St.	99.1	99.9	99.6	99.5
Wyoming	92.0	92.4	92.8	92.4
Colorado St.	89.1	88.9	88.8	88.9
New Mexico	78.5	78.3	77.1	78.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Nevada	105.0	106.0	105.3	105.4
Fresno St.	103.2	104.3	104.9	104.1
San Diego St.	98.6	98.4	98.1	98.4
Hawaii	93.0	92.9	92.8	92.9
San Jose St.	88.9	89.0	87.8	88.6
U N L V	85.3	85.0	85.4	85.2
MWC Averages	95.2	95.4	95.3	95.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon St.	109.9	110.5	110.6	110.3
Washington St.	108.6	109.6	109.4	109.2
Oregon	108.2	109.1	109.7	109.0
California	103.0	105.6	105.3	104.6
Washington	102.7	103.4	103.1	103.1
Stanford	94.2	94.8	94.0	94.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	120.9	121.3	121.3	121.2
U C L A	114.5	115.1	115.4	115.0
Arizona St.	109.8	110.5	110.8	110.3
U S C	103.7	103.4	103.6	103.6
Colorado	98.6	98.7	98.4	98.6
Arizona	92.2	92.3	92.3	92.3
Pac-12 Averages	105.5	106.2	106.2	106.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.4	133.6	134.4	133.8
Kentucky	112.6	113.6	113.1	113.1
Tennessee	111.8	111.7	112.0	111.9
Florida	109.2	110.1	109.4	109.6
South Carolina	101.1	100.7	100.2	100.6
Missouri	100.4	100.7	99.9	100.3
Vanderbilt	84.1	84.0	83.9	84.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	133.0	132.4	133.3	132.9
Texas A&M	118.4	118.8	118.5	118.6
Ole Miss	116.0	116.1	116.3	116.2
Arkansas	114.7	114.7	114.7	114.7
Auburn	114.3	113.7	114.4	114.1
Mississippi St.	111.8	112.1	112.0	112.0
L S U	111.1	111.8	111.7	111.5
SEC Averages	112.3	112.4	112.4	112.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	108.9	108.7	110.1	109.2
Coastal Carolina	105.5	103.8	104.6	104.7
Georgia St.	98.8	98.3	98.9	98.7
Troy	88.1	87.9	88.1	88.0
Georgia Southern	86.9	87.1	87.0	87.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
South Alabama	90.1	89.8	89.4	89.8
UL-Monroe	83.5	83.4	82.7	83.2
Texas St.	83.8	82.4	82.8	83.0
Arkansas St.	83.1	83.0	82.3	82.8
Sun Averages	93.9	93.4	93.6	93.6

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.4
2	Big 12	109.6
3	Big Ten	108.5
4	Pac-12	106.0
5	Atlantic Coast	104.5
6	American Athletic	96.9
7	Mountain West	95.3
8	Sun Belt	93.6
9	Independents	91.0
10	Mid-American	90.5
11	Conference USA	86.3

PiRate Picks–September 30-October 4, 2021

This edition will be short this week due to time constraints, but it is chock full of college money line parlays, as we perceive some excellent value on the college side and not on the NFL side. We even include a rare, 4-team parlay at +372.50. Remember, we never wager real money on our selections and recommend you do the same. Use this feature only for entertainment purposes or supplemental research.

Date:	September 30-October 4
1. Odds:	+173.19
Must Win	Opponent
Notre Dame	Cincinnati
Michigan St.	Western Kentucky
2. Odds:	+219.78
Must Win	Opponent
Purdue	Minnesota
Oregon	Stanford
Army	Ball St.
3. Odds:	+220.45
Must Win	Opponent
Missouri	Tennessee
USC	Colorado
West Virginia	Texas Tech
4. Odds:	+372.50
Must Win	Opponent
Texas	TCU
Wake Forest	Louisville
South Carolina	Troy
Oklahoma St.	Baylor

PiRate Picks For September 23-27, 2021

A Weekend of Despair

We hope you have read numerous times on this site that we do not wager real money on the selections you see here in this weekly feature. We always encourage you to do the same. It is for this reason that we were able to sleep peacefully this week after the incredibly unlucky fortunes that destroyed what could have been a second incredibly successful weekend.

The weekend started out with a nice parlay win as Kansas State beat Nevada and Troy beat Southern Miss. to return a nice $282 on our imaginary $100 wager. The combo parlay with one college game and one pro game was next. Mississippi State had to beat Memphis, and they should have done so. The officials in the game admitted to making a major mistake in the game, and there was a blatant oversight on the same play. Memphis scored the decisive touchdown returning a punt that had already been signaled as dead by the back judge. At the same time, the punt returner wore number four. Nothing wrong with that, but he was not the only number four in the game for the Tigers. Had the mistake not been made, Mississippi State wins the game, and when Denver won the next day, that parlay would have been a winner of $226.42 on the imaginary $100 wagered to guarantee a winning weekend.

On Sunday, Seattle led Tennessee by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and Kansas City led Baltimore by 11 in the fourth quarter. The other parts of the final two parlays had already won. Tennessee scored twice to tie the Seahawks where they went on to win in overtime to kill one parlay, and Baltimore pulled off a minor miracle to beat Kansas City by a point to kill the other one.

Even with the three heartbreakers losing, we are out nothing. No stress means we can return to picking games this week with the same imaginary bank account that never runs out of $100 investment opportunities.

When the opening lines came out, we immediately spotted a huge mistake in one college game. It was the spread in the Georgia-Vanderbilt game, as it opened at 30 1/2 or 31 depending on the books in question. The bookmakers made a big mistake, and within five minutes, that spread had moved to 35. The mistake they made was assuming that Vanderbilt would get about three points for home field advantage. SEC fans and bettors know that Georgia fans will make Vanderbilt Stadium a sea of red. Somewhere either side of 90% will be rooting for the Bulldogs, making this a home game on their opponent’s field. Vanderbilt’s quarterbacks will have to use hand signals on their home field. Georgia is really the home team, and poof, the line may still be low at 35. We don’t issue straight wagers against the line these days. But, we came oh so close to issuing a special bulletin Sunday night when we saw that incredibly low number.

We spent a couple hours looking over the money lines this week looking for certain in-house data to come up with the games we wanted to play. This was a difficult week, because we didn’t particularly like the schedule in either college or pro football. In the end, in order to get our parlays up above +120, we had to go with multiple very long shot combinations at very large odds.

We are going with five selections this week, one of which is not a parlay, but just one single upset pick. Three of our parlays include three games each; we prefer to play two-game parlays, especially when using NFL teams, where it is hard to pick the winners of three games all that often. So, when you look at these picks below, realize they are long shots. Please don’t wager real money on these games unless you have other research data that our selections merely verify.

This Week’s Parlays

Date:	Sept 23-27
Odds:	+205
Must Win	Opponent
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.
Odds:	+259.50
Must Win	Opponent
Eastern Michigan	Texas St.
Michigan St.	Nebraska
Memphis	UTSA
Odds:	+217.69
Must Win	Opponent
Michigan St.	Nebraska
Boston College	Missouri
Odds:	+157.86
Must Win	Opponent
Carolina	Houston
Kansas City	LA Chargers
Las Vegas	Miami
Odds:	+208.86
Must Win	Opponent
Arizona	Jacksonville
Buffalo	Washington
Seattle	Minnesota

FBS Independents Preview

While 2020 was one strange logistical nightmare for college football conferences, it was a walk in the park compared to what the FBS Independents endured.

First, Notre Dame decided to join the Atlantic Coast Conference as a full-fledged member for one season.  Then, the Irish ran the table, upsetting Clemson to win the ACC regular season title.  That NBC TV contract must mean a lot to the Irish, because full-time membership in the ACC might have allowed the once top program in football to increase its recruiting base and return to the glory of their earlier times.  Alas, the NBC money meant more than membership in one of the top four leagues.

BYU, Army, and Liberty had to move mountains to play a full schedule, sometimes scheduling a Saturday three or four days before.  It was almost a 21st Century barnstorming tour for the three schools, but it seemed to work as the Cougars went 11-1, the Black Knights went 9-3, and the Flames finished 10-1.  BYU’s lone loss came at the hands of Coastal Carolina in one of those last-minute scheduled games.  Trying to prepare for CCU’s highly unorthodox offense with no advance notice may have been something the Baltimore Ravens might have struggled pulling off.  

Army finished first in the nation in total defense, allowing just 275 yards per game, and they finished runner-up in scoring defense, allowing 14.8 points per game.  Liberty lost by one point at North Carolina State, which is all that kept the Flames from running the table.  Liberty knocked off previously undefeated Coastal Carolina in overtime in the Cure Bowl.

Connecticut, New Mexico State, and UMass didn’t fare so well in the year of Covid.  UConn cancelled their season and never played a game.  This comes off a 2019 season where the Huskies went just 2-10 with one FBS win over UMass.

UMass didn’t play until Mid-October and then the Minutemen played just 240 minutes, going 0-4 and scoring just one touchdown, one field goal, and one safety.  The Minutemen were outgained by more than 400 yards in their season-ending loss to Liberty 45-0.  In the nine years since UMass has been a full FBS member, they have a 19-81 record, with nothing better than a couple of 4-8 seasons.

Then, there is New Mexico State.  The Aggies were one of three FBS schools to cancel their entire 2020 season.  NMSU is just barely hanging on as an FBS football program, and losing the entire season was a big financial tragedy.  However, there was an even bigger tragedy in Las Cruces this Spring.

The Aggies decided to play a couple of FCS opponents that were playing Spring schedules.  On February 21, NMSU welcomed Tarleton State to Aggie Memorial Stadium for a Sunday afternoon contest.  Tarleton State had just lost to McNeese State and would lose again the week after the NMSU game to upstart football program Dixie State.  This should have been a game where the last player on the Aggie bench saw at least a quarter of action when the game was a 35-point blowout.

Sure enough, the game was a blowout, and NMSU got to empty their bench in the final quarter.  Unfortunately, Tarleton State scored two touchdowns in the first four and a half minutes.  Three plays into the third quarter, the Texans led the Aggies 40-7.  They won 43-17 after emptying the bench.

How does a hopeful normal season look for the Independents?  There is no official Independent Media poll.  Instead of showing you how the media voted, here is a composite look at how 20 other computer power ratings see the Independents finishing this year.

1. Notre Dame
2. Liberty
3. Army
4. BYU
5. Connecticut
6. UMass
7. New Mexico St.

How do the three PiRate Ratings see the 2021 season for this septet?

Notre Dame returns to full Independent status this year.  The Irish face a major rebuild on the offensive side of the ball.  If Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan can find some of the spark that made him shine two years ago, Notre Dame may not suffer greatly from the loss of Ian Book.  However, the offensive line will be inexperienced, and the receiving corps needs a go-to big play receiver.

The Irish return half of their defensive regulars from 2020, but they lose their defensive coordinator, Clark Lea.  Lea’s defense was tops in the ACC, and the 19.7 points per game allowed is incredible when you consider that they played Clemson twice, Alabama, and North Carolina. 

Notre Dame faces a weaker schedule this year, but there are still potential tough games against Florida State, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC, North Carolina, Virginia, and Stanford.  Don’t expect another undefeated regular season in South Bend, and don’t expect a return to the Playoffs.  The schedule is full of trap games.  Toledo, Purdue, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC, North Carolina, and Stanford will be tough contests, and it is possible that the Irish do no better than 3-4 in these seven games and at best 5-2.

Liberty should be more talented and will be a much more experienced team this year.  The Flames were 10-1 last year, but 2021 presents LU with a considerably tougher schedule.  Coach Hugh Freeze takes the Flames to Oxford, Mississippi, in November, where LU will take on his former team, Ole Miss.  It should be one of the most exciting games of the season, and the final score might look more like a basketball game.  Games against Louisiana and Army follow the Ole Miss game.  If Liberty wins two of their last three, they could win 10 games again.

Army’s offense didn’t click on all cylinders last year, but the Black Knights’ defense surrendered less than 115 rushing and 160 passing yards per game to lead the nation in total defense.  That great defense returns an intact defensive line and an experienced secondary, so it might be even tougher to move the ball on the Black Knights this year.  Unfortunately, a new quarterback and inexperienced offensive line probably means the Cadets will regress a bit this year.

BYU finished third nationally in scoring and fourth nationally in scoring defense.  Key players on both sides of the ball must be replaced, foremost being quarterback Zach Wilson, who now wears a New York Jets’ uniform.  At least, the Cougars should know who they are going to play the following Saturday when they wake up Monday mornings this year.

Connecticut last won a game on October 26, 2019, when they topped a 1-win UMass team.  The Huskies have not defeated a legitimate FBS program since they beat Tulsa in October of 2017.  Expect UConn to show an improved passing game and better all around defense this year, but the Huskies have a long way to go before they will be competing for winning records as a new Independent.

As for UMass and New Mexico State, these two teams may be the weakest among the 130 FBS teams.  They both are definitely in the bottom five.  The two teams close out the 2021 season facing off in Las Cruces.  Unless these schools can find a conference during the upcoming round of realignment, they both face the possibility of joining former FBS Independent Idaho at the FCS level.

Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the Independents.

FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.8	110.6	111.2	110.2
BYU	109.2	108.2	110.3	109.2
Liberty	104.3	105.6	106.5	105.5
Army	100.0	99.8	100.2	100.0
Connecticut	77.4	78.6	74.2	76.7
UMass	74.8	74.0	70.5	73.1
New Mexico St.	70.3	71.1	67.6	69.7
Indep. Averages	92.1	92.6	91.5	92.1

While the PiRate Ratings are designed only to compare teams’ power ratings in their next scheduled game, we can still have a little fun trying to predict won-loss records.  

Independents	Overall
Liberty	11-1
Notre Dame	8-4
BYU	8-4
Army	7-5
UMass	3-9
Connecticut	2-10
New Mexico St.	2-10

PiRate Picks for December 11-14, 2020

Picking Games That Will Actually Be Played Harder Than Picking Winners

We moved this feature from Thursday to Friday beginning last week, in hopes that we would stop issuing selections only to have them be cancelled later in the day when games in our parlays and teasers were virus victims. So, what happened last week? Literally five minutes after we posted our selections, our number one selection as far as our confidence in thinking it would be a winner, was cancelled.

We cannot possibly send this out an hour before the Noon Eastern kickoffs, so Friday morning is about as late as we can release this weekly feature. Maybe, we should try to predict who will cancel in the final 24 hours before kickoff?

We were quite hesitant to use Tennessee and Vanderbilt in our selections this week, because the Commodores’ roster looks like a retail store about five weeks after they have begun to liquidate with a “going out of business” sale. They have 44 players remaining on the team, but they have just one defensive end left on the roster, and two real linebackers. They have been forced to use small defensive backs at linebacker and offensive linemen in the defensive line. One of the healthy defensive backs, a true freshman and one of the very few 4-star recruits suffered the tragic loss of his mother and has been left with three siblings that he will now become their legal guardian. He’s all of 18 years old.

If you want to contribute something to this family facing a tragic loss of having both father and mother pass away, the four teenage kids could use a little Holiday Season support. For what it’s worth, the Vanderbilt freshman, DeRickey Wright, is not only on athletic scholarship at Vanderbilt, he is on academic scholarship. His three sisters are aged 16, 14, and 10. A Go Fund Me account has been set up to help the family. Rather than ask you not to use our selections here as real betting advice, we ask you to consider donating a little to help this family in their worst time of grief.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/j3m97-wright-family

This Week’s Selections

1. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Arizona St.	Arizona	-0.5
Georgia	Missouri	-3
Nebraska	Minnesota	-0.5
2. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Ball St.	Western Mich.	+8
Toledo	Central Mich.	-1
Troy	Coastal Carolina	+23.5
3. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	+13
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	-5.5
Boise St.	Wyoming	-1
4. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Florida	LSU	-13
Auburn	Mississippi St.	+3.5
USC	UCLA	+7.5
5. Money Line Parlay @+131.55
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Army	Navy
Virginia Tech	Virginia	+131.55
6. Money Line Parlay @ +160
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Utah	Colorado
Northwestern	Illinois	+160
7. NFL 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Chicago	Houston	+11.5
N.Y. Giants	Arizona	+12.5
Detroit	Green Bay	+17.5

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sep 3-7

This Week’s Games

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Southern Miss.	South Alabama	7.3	6.5	9.3
Army	Middle Tenn.	5.2	6.9	4.5
Texas St.	SMU	-22.6	-21.1	-24.1
Memphis	Arkansas St.	18.0	13.9	17.7
Navy	BYU	4.9	4.5	3.3

FBS vs. FCS (PiRate Only)

FBS	FCS	PiRate
UAB	Cent. Arkansas	8.6
Marshall	E. Kentucky	21.5
North Texas	Hou. Baptist	26.9
UTEP	S F Austin	7.8

Note: Game Spreads Have Been Adjusted From Ratings Due To Covid-19 Opt-outs.

This Week’s Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.
1	Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3
2	L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
3	Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
4	Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
5	Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
6	Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
7	Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2
8	Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0
9	Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
10	Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7
11	Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
12	N. Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8
13	Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
14	Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6
15	Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1
16	Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
17	UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
18	Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
19	Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
20	Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
21	S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
22	Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
23	Ole Miss	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
24	Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0
25	Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0
26	Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
27	T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
28	Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
29	Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6
30	Miss. St.	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
31	Appal. St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2
32	Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0
33	Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2
34	SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7
35	BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3
36	Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2
37	W. Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7
38	Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2
39	Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
40	Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
41	Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4
42	Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7
43	Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0
44	W. Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7
45	Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
46	Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
47	Georgia Sou.	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0
48	Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
49	Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4
50	Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3
51	Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6
52	Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
53	USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2
54	NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
55	U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4
56	Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
57	Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6
58	E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
59	Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3
60	Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8
61	Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5
62	Coastal Car.	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6
63	Middle Tenn.	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8
64	Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
65	Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
66	La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
67	Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
68	Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4
69	Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
70	UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3
71	S. Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6
72	Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
73	North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
74	Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6
75	U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3
76	U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8	0-0	0-0
Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1	0-0	0-0
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1	0-0	0-0
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7	0-0	0-0
Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0	0-0	0-0
SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7	0-0	0-0
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2	0-0	0-0
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1	0-0	0-0
Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6	0-0	0-0
USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2	0-0	0-0
E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9	0-0	0-0
AAC Averages	101.5	100.7	100.4	100.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3	0-0	0-0
Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2	0-0	0-0
N. Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8	0-0	0-0
Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1	0-0	0-0
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9	0-0	0-0
Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0	0-0	0-0
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4	0-0	0-0
Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6	0-0	0-0
Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2	0-0	0-0
Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2	0-0	0-0
Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5	0-0	0-0
Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7	0-0	0-0
Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0	0-0	0-0
Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-0
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6	0-0	0-0
ACC Averages	104.9	105.4	105.3	105.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0	0-0	0-0
Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7	0-0	0-0
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3	0-0	0-0
Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6	0-0	0-0
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1	0-0	0-0
Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0	0-0	0-0
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3	0-0	0-0
W. Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7	0-0	0-0
Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4	0-0	0-0
Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5	0-0	0-0
Big 12 Averages	106.7	106.0	106.7	106.5
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
W. Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7	0-0	0-0
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5	0-0	0-0
Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3	0-0	0-0
U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4	0-0	0-0
Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3	0-0	0-0
Middle Tenn.	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8	0-0	0-0
La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4	0-0	0-0
Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4	0-0	0-0
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3	0-0	0-0
Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9	0-0	0-0
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7	0-0	0-0
U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3	0-0	0-0
U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9	0-0	0-0
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.0	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3	x	0-0
Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8	x	0-0
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4	x	0-0
Ind. Averages	92.7	94.0	92.7	93.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8	0-0	0-0
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9	0-0	0-0
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8	0-0	0-0
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2	0-0	0-0
S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3	0-0	0-0
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5	0-0	0-0
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8	0-0	0-0
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3	0-0	0-0
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5	0-0	0-0
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8	0-0	0-0
Miss. St.	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1	0-0	0-0
Ole Miss	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4	0-0	0-0
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3	0-0	0-0
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Appal. St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2	0-0	0-0
Georgia Sou.	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0	0-0	0-0
Coastal Car.	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6	0-0	0-0
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8	0-0	0-0
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2	0-0	0-0
Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6	0-0	0-0
UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3	0-0	0-0
S. Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6	0-0	0-0
Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6	0-0	0-0
SBC Averages	90.1	90.7	89.9	90.2

This Week’s Free College Pick–And You Get What You Pay For!

We are toning down the selections against the spread this year due to the lack of games each week and the uncertainty of available personnel.  We will issue a minimum of selections and highly urge you to not use this non-advice.  All wagers will be done at the pretend amount of $100 units.

 

1. Money Line Parlay (+103)

        Southern Miss over South Alabama

        Navy over BYU

2019 FBS Independents Preview

Note: There isn’t much to preview about the 2019 FBS Independents, so today you get a little incite about how these ratings began and how the Independents of football began to see the light about the weaknesses of not having conference affiliation.

This is the 150th year anniversary for college football.  Yours truly vividly remembers the 100th year anniversary in 1969.  That’s the year these ratings were born.  At the time, I was sort of enamored with Ohio State University and Coach Woody Hayes.  He was dedicated to perfecting what he thought was the way to win football.  Having watched the Buckeyes defeat O.J. Simpson and the USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl the season before, I expected Ohio State to challenge the 1944 and 1945 Army teams for best in the history of the game.

On October 11, 1969, Ohio State faced a ranked Michigan State team that had just lost a close game to Notre Dame.  The Buckeyes had begun the season with slaughters over TCU and Washington.  This was the fateful Saturday that led to the creation of the PiRate Ratings.

On that Saturday, Ohio State took care of business by running the Spartans into the ground and winning by more than 30 points.  Then, something incredible happened that night.  My hometown team, the school where multiple family members attended, Vanderbilt hosted Alabama at Dudley Field.  Vanderbilt was 0-3, and ‘Bama was 3-0.  Led by sophomore phenom and future head coach Watson Brown, Vanderbilt beat Alabama 14-10 in the greatest upset of the season.

The following Monday, I went to school and a teacher asked me what I thought about the weekend’s games.  On the playground, when we played touch football, we chose teams.  We called my team “Ohio State,” while the other team called themselves “Penn State,” because Alabama was no longer worthy of being good enough.

There was an argument that day.  Which team was better–Ohio State or Penn State?  Both teams won every game the year before.  Both teams had won every game so far this year, and both teams had just easily defeated ranked teams on that Saturday.

I went home the following day to read the old Nashville Banner newspaper, an afternoon publication.  The AP and UPI top 20 rankings were in the sports pages of that day’s paper.  The entire top 10 featured undefeated teams.  Among the teams besides Ohio State and Penn State were Texas and Arkansas from the Southwest Conference, UCLA and USC from the Pac-8 Conference, and Tennessee, LSU, and Florida from the SEC.  The other team was Missouri, a team that had just creamed Michigan and Nebraska.

I looked at the rankings and then glanced over at the “Litratings.”  The Litratings were a ratings system compiled by Dr. Edward Litkenhous, a famed Vanderbilt engineering professor.  In the days before computers, there were three alternatives to the AP and UPI rankings.  They were Dunkel, Carr, and Litkenhous.  The Nashville Banner carried the Litratings, as Dr. Litkenhous personally delivered his ratings to the paper every week.

I began comparing scores and opponents of the top 10 teams.  It was crude, but I basically started this to show my friends why Ohio State was the best team in college football, and that Penn State was not even as good as any of those undefeated conference teams.

The rest of the season, I happily compiled new top 10 rankings based on my crude mathematical knowledge, and each week through the middle of November, Ohio State was still the best team.  There were just four teams remaining that were unbeaten and untied–Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, and Arkansas.  On that next Saturday, Michigan gave Ohio State a spanking in Ann Arbor.  Seeking revenge for a 50-14 defeat in Columbus the year before, the Wolverines’ defense was superb, and the Buckeyes’  season ended at 8-1 and no chance for a national championship.

Meanwhile, Texas and Penn State slaughtered and shut out their opponents, while Arkansas beat a better quality opponent in SMU.  So, who was the top team in the nation?  My personal ratings said that Penn State was a tad better than Texas and Arkansas.  Once tied USC and once beaten LSU were just a tad behind.

Penn State closed out the regular season with two convincing road victories over mediocre teams, one over rival Pittsburgh and one over North Carolina St.  Arkansas and Texas both easily handled mediocre Southwest Conference teams.

Penn State accepted the Orange Bowl bid for the second year in a row.  They could have accepted a bid to the Cotton Bowl to play the Arkansas-Texas winner, but at the time they had to vote, Ohio State was still undefeated and a win over Michigan would clinch the national title.  The Buckeyes could not play in the Rose Bowl that year, because the Big Ten still did not allow teams to play in Rose Bowls in consecutive seasons.  They would be 9-0 and undisputed national champions with a win over Michigan.

Additionally, this was just six years after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, and a lot of people from outside the South and Southwest thought of Dallas as an outlaw town where the 1960s were not that much different than the 1860s.  Some of the African-American players on the Penn State team did not want to go to Dallas, so the team voted to return to Miami on New Year’s Day.  Their opponent would be 9-1 Missouri, the team that slaughtered Michigan earlier that season.

Did Penn State have a legitimate claim to the national title?  I thought they did.  Their offense was solid but not spectacular, even though they had three running backs that would play in the NFL, including future all-pros Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell.  It was the Nittany Lions defense and special teams that made this team so special.  The defense gave up fewer points than the defense and special teams scored or set up.

It wasn’t the Associated Press, United Press International, Dunkel, Carr, or Litkenhous that made the decision on which team would win the national championship.  President Richard Nixon proclaimed that the winner of the December game between Arkansas and Texas in Fayetteville, Arkansas, would be the national champion.  He even planned to be there in person to present the trophy to the winner.

Until the early 1970’s, it was the norm for the national championship to be awarded before the bowl games.  The bowl games were considered rewards for great seasons and not like postseason play.  So, it wasn’t out of the ordinary for the national champion to be crowned after the conclusion of the regular season.

That first Saturday in December of 1969, the home team Razorbacks quickly scored two touchdowns to lead 14-0.  It looked like Arkansas was going to win its third national title of the 1960s, as they won a piece of the 1964 and 1965 titles in split decisions.  This would be their first consensus championship, and Coach Frank Broyles would probably take over the title of greatest current college coach.

Texas was on the verge of being defeated.  The Longhorns had an 18-game winning streak on the line as well as the national championship.  The fourth quarter started with Arkansas still ahead 14-0, and the Razorback defense had solved the triple option that no other opponents could stop.  Texas quarterback James Street was not your typical wishbone quarterback.  He was a decent passer, and Royal decided that the Longhorns would have to start passing the ball, something the wishbone offense was not meant to do other than the occasional surprise play-action pass.

Street dropped back to pass, while the Arkansas pass rush forced him to scramble to avoid a 10-yard sack.  Somehow, a small pocket opened, and Street took off down the right sideline for a touchdown.  Royal decided to go for two, and a counter option run was successful to make the score 14-8.

With less than five minutes left in the game, and the score still 14-8 in favor of the Razorbacks, Texas was in deep trouble.  Facing a fourth down and three on their side of the 50 yard line, Coach Darrel Royal decided to gamble and go for the first down.  They came out in their wishbone offense, and Arkansas bunched up with nine defenders near the line of scrimmage.  Not only was Royal ready to gamble, he figured that even if the Longhorns powered for the three yards and a first down, they could not keep the ball on  the ground and score the winning touchdown with so little time left.

Royal called for the play-action long bomb off the option fake.  Street faked to his fullback running into the line and continued to option the Arkansas defensive end–for two steps.  Then, he quickly dropped back three steps and fired the ball long and high into the air.  At the other end of the play, receiver Randy Peschel had maybe a half-step on two Arkansas defenders.  The ball came out of the sky into Peschel’s arms inside the Razorback 15 yard line.  Arkansas was stunned.  They were in place to stop all three phases of the triple option and then run the clock out to play LSU in the Cotton Bowl, the team that had upset them in the Cotton Bowl just four years before.  Alas, neither team would spend New Year’s in Dallas.

Texas ran two plays and scored a touchdown on a counter dive.  The extra point put the Longhorns up 15-14 with just over three minutes to play.

The game wasn’t over.  Unlike Texas, Arkansas ran a pro-style offense, and Quarterback Bill Montgomery had a dangerous receiver in Chuck Dicus.  The Razorbacks quickly drove into Longhorn territory.  They needed one more first down to get into legitimate field goal range with a chance to win the game in the final seconds.  Montgomery rolled out to throw toward Dicus, but the toss was a little off target, and Texas intercepted the pass to clinch the game.

The Longhorns were given the trophy by President Nixon.  It appeared that they would now play 9-1 LSU in the Cotton Bowl, and my ratings would actually make LSU a small favorite.

Except it didn’t happen.  After decades of not permitting the football team to play in bowl games, the elders at Notre Dame decided that it was now okay.  LSU was in essence uninvited to the Cotton Bowl, and a weaker Notre Dame team was invited in their place.  Meanwhile, LSU was now shut out of a bowl, as Ole Miss had already accepted the Sugar Bowl bid when it appeared that LSU was Dallas-bound.

In the bowl games, Texas struggled to beat Notre Dame in what was basically a Longhorn home game.  Irish quarterback Joe Theismann shredded the Texas secondary for well over 200 passing yards, and Texas had to come from behind to win.

At the same time, Ole Miss, led by Archie Manning, beat Arkansas in a mild upset in the Sugar Bowl.  The Rebels had ended the season on a hot streak, having also giving Tennessee and LSU their only regular season losses.  Still, the Southwest Conference teams did not look to be as strong as the poll-voters believed.

That evening, Penn State played a Missouri team that averaged over 40 points per game and held the Tigers to one field goal.  They won only 10-3, but the defense intercepted Missouri quarterback Terry McMillan seven times (he threw just six interceptions in the 10 regular season games).

So, who was the best team in 1969?  Was it Penn State or Texas or maybe even another team?  My ratings said that Penn State was the best team, but I also had LSU number two and USC and Texas tied at number three.

Penn State would enjoy undefeated seasons in 1968, 1969, and 1973 and not win the national championship in any of those years.  The 1973 team finished at the top of my ratings.  The poll voters favored conference teams, and except for Notre Dame, an Independent had to win every game convincingly to win a national title.  Syracuse in 1959 dominated all 11 opponents to win only a split decision, as once-beaten Ole Miss from the SEC received more #1 honors that year.

In 1969, the centennial year for college football, 27 major college teams played as independents.  West Virginia finished 10-1 losing only to Penn State, the Mountaineers just barely made the final top 20.  Houston finished 8-2 in the regular season and also just barely made the top 20 prior to bowl season.  The Cougars then totally thrashed Auburn in the Bluebonnet Bowl to earn some respect.

50 years later, there are just six independent football schools left.  Notre Dame can remain an independent and thrive.  The Irish have their exclusive NBC TV contract.  They can steal a bowl bid from the ACC in a sweetheart arrangement, where they can finish leap over any ACC team that has one more win than they have.

BYU left the Mountain West Conference with aspirations of joining the Pac-12 or Big 12, but they were left at the altar.  The Cougar football program has contracted in recent years.  It won’t be a surprise if they try to return to the Mountain West in three or four years.

Army does not need to join a football conference.  Although their two military rivals belong to conferences, the Black Knights can remain independent and survive by doing what they have been doing for the last few years.  Navy actually has regressed since joining the American Athletic Conference.

As for Massachusetts, Liberty, and New Mexico State, they have to wait until the next round of cannibalism from the Power 5 conferences.  If the AAC loses a team or two, UMass and Liberty could be in line to replace them.  If the Mountain West loses a team to Pac-12 or Big 12 expansion, maybe NMSU could get in as a replacement, or maybe if BYU returns to the MWC, the Aggies can be the 14th members.

There is no such entity as a media poll for the FBS Independents.  Therefore, we will show you how 10 of the most reputable computer forecasters believe.  We are not vain enough to include ourselves in these 10 ratings, plus you will see our ratings below as well.

 

10 Computer Gurus Poll of FBS Independents
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Notre Dame	9	59
2	Army	1	51
3	BYU	0	38
4	Liberty	0	32
5	New Mexico St.	0	17
6	Massachusetts	0	13

 

Here are the preseason  PiRate Ratings for the FBS Independents.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	121.4	119.1	121.9	120.8
Army	102.6	102.7	102.4	102.6
BYU	101.8	101.7	102.0	101.8
Liberty	87.9	89.6	88.4	88.6
New Mexico St.	77.8	81.2	77.6	78.8
Massachusetts	73.5	76.8	73.1	74.5
Indep. Averages	94.2	95.2	94.2	94.5

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
Pos	Team	Won-Loss
1	Army	11-2
2	Notre Dame	10-2
3	BYU	8-4
4	Liberty	7-5
5	New Mexico St.	2-10
6	Massachusetts	2-10

 

 

Bowl Predictions

Hawaii	BYU
Orange	Notre Dame
Cotton	Army (top G5 team)
Also Bowl Eligible
Liberty

 

 

Coaches That Could Move to Power 5 Conferences

Jeff Monken, Army

Hugh Freeze, Liberty

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Kelani Sitake, BYU

Doug Martin, New Mexico St.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Ian Book, Notre Dame

Zach Wilson, BYU

Kelvin Hopkins, Army

 

Best Offense

Army

Notre Dame

Liberty

 

Best Defense

Notre Dame

Army

BYU

Coming Tomorrow: The American Athletic Conference–still the #1 Group of 5 conference

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 6-10, 2018

The Land Sharps are taking a week off this week, since they play only college games, and there is just one game.  They will return for the bowls and playoffs.

In the meantime, the PiRate Ratings will go it alone and select our teaser choices for you to look at but not touch.  In other words, please do not wager real currency on what we issue here, as this is for entertainment purposes only.  While, our NFL picks have been on fire now for about a month, this does not mean they won’t stink it up so bad that they need to be sprayed with poopouri.

COLLEGE
13-Point Teaser	4-Game Parlays	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Army	Navy	20	Navy
Navy	Army	6	Army
Army	Navy	27	OVER
Army	Navy	53	UNDER

 

N F L

10-Point Teasers	3-Game Parlays	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Jacksonville	15.5	Jacksonville
Baltimore	Kansas City	3.5	Kansas City
Indianapolis	Houston	5	Houston
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Green Bay	Atlanta	15	Atlanta
New England	Miami	17.5	Miami
Cleveland	Carolina	9	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	Pittsburgh	Pk	Pittsburgh
Chicago	L.A. Rams	7	L.A. Rams
Minnesota	Seattle	7	Seattle
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Kansas City	Baltimore	41	OVER
Houston	Indianapolis	59.5	UNDER
N.Y. Giants	Washington	31	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	45.5	OVER
Carolina	Cleveland	37	OVER
Arizona	Detroit	30.5	OVER
13-Point Teaser	4 Game parlay	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Washington	N.Y. Giants	9.5	N.Y. Giants
San Francisco	Denver	9.5	Denver
L.A. Chargers	Cincinnati	1	L.A. Chargers
Detroit	Arizona	16	Arizona

 

 

 

Final Bowl Projections +Army-Navy

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Tulane	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St. *	California
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	UAB	Appalachian St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Middle Tennessee
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[San Diego St.]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	Southern Miss.
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo *	Florida Int’l. *
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Virginia Tech]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech *	Hawaii *
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[BYU]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Georgia Tech	[Western Michigan]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Auburn
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Pittsburgh	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington St.
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Wake Forest
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Stanford
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Utah
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Texas A&M
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	LSU	Michigan
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington *
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Oklahoma
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
* Team has already accepted this bid

 

Saturday	December 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Navy	14.6	13.3	14.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0
2	Clemson	138.9	136.8	139.7	138.5
3	Georgia	128.9	126.7	130.3	128.6
4	Ohio St.	127.1	125.4	127.4	126.6
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.7	120.8	123.3	122.3
9	Oklahoma	121.8	120.6	121.8	121.4
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.4	114.9	116.6	116.0
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Central Florida	114.2	114.7	114.9	114.6
21	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
22	Stanford	114.7	112.6	114.9	114.1
23	Texas	114.0	112.4	113.2	113.2
24	N. Carolina St.	113.2	112.4	112.6	112.7
25	S. Carolina	113.1	111.9	113.0	112.7
26	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	Fresno St.	112.0	111.6	112.2	111.9
30	Iowa State	112.5	110.8	111.9	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.3	111.1	111.6	111.3
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.4	108.8	109.9	109.7
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
40	Pittsburgh	109.4	108.4	108.8	108.9
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.1	106.0	107.9	107.3
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.5	105.7	105.3	105.2
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Virginia Tech	104.6	103.9	104.2	104.2
54	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
55	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
68	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
69	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
70	Buffalo	99.0	100.8	100.0	99.9
71	Appalachian St.	98.3	100.1	99.7	99.4
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Northern Illinois	96.8	97.9	97.3	97.3
76	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
77	U A B	96.2	98.6	97.1	97.3
78	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
79	Middle Tennessee	95.9	97.8	96.9	96.9
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
85	Marshall	93.9	96.2	94.6	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.8	86.7	85.5	86.0
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.7	86.0	85.4	85.0
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
111	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
112	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
113	East Carolina	81.9	81.9	81.3	81.7
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	Liberty	80.9	80.4	80.9	80.7
118	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
119	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.2	114.7	114.9	114.6	8-0	12-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	81.9	81.9	81.3	81.7	1-7	3-9
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.5	105.7	105.3	105.2	5-3	8-5
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.7	95.3	94.7	94.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.9	136.8	139.7	138.5	8-0	13-0
N. Carolina St.	113.2	112.4	112.6	112.7	5-3	9-3
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.4	108.4	108.8	108.9	6-2	7-6
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.6	103.9	104.2	104.2	4-4	6-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.3	108.1	108.7	108.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.8	120.6	121.8	121.4	8-1	12-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.0	112.4	113.2	113.2	7-2	9-4
Iowa State	112.5	110.8	111.9	111.7	6-3	8-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.1	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	127.1	125.4	127.4	126.6	8-1	12-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.4	108.8	109.9	109.7	8-1	8-5
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	95.9	97.8	96.9	96.9	7-1	8-5
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Marshall	93.9	96.2	94.6	94.9	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	96.2	98.6	97.1	97.3	7-1	10-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.9	80.4	80.9	80.7	x	6-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.1	94.3	94.2	94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.0	100.8	100.0	99.9	7-1	10-3
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.8	86.7	85.5	86.0	2-6	4-8
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.8	97.9	97.3	97.3	6-2	8-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.8	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.3	111.1	111.6	111.3	7-1	10-3
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.0	111.6	112.2	111.9	7-1	11-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.7	120.8	123.3	122.3	7-2	10-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.7	112.6	114.9	114.1	6-3	8-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.1	106.0	107.9	107.3	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.4	114.9	116.6	116.0	6-3	9-4
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.5	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.7	130.3	128.6	7-1	11-2
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	113.1	111.9	113.0	112.7	4-4	7-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0	8-0	13-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.3	100.1	99.7	99.4	7-1	10-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.7	86.0	85.4	85.0	5-3	7-6
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.7
2	B12	109.6	108.1	108.9	108.9
3	ACC	109.3	108.1	108.7	108.7
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.5	107.1
6	AAC	94.7	95.3	94.7	94.9
7	IND	94.1	94.3	94.2	94.2
8	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.8	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8