The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 25, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 25, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

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Auburn

Ole Miss

9.3

Ball St.

Western Michigan

11.0

Baylor

Kansas St.

16.0

Bowling Green

Akron

-3.3

Central Michigan

Toledo

0.6

Davidson

La Salle

10.8

Eastern Michigan

Northern Illinois

2.6

George Mason

Dayton

-12.9

Georgia Tech

Clemson

3.0

Iowa St.

TCU

4.5

Kent St.

Miami (O)

10.2

Loyola (Chi.)

Drake

7.9

Michigan St.

Iowa

7.2

Mississippi St.

Alabama

2.0

North Carolina

North Carolina St.

-0.6

Ohio

Buffalo

-0.6

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

-1.2

San Diego St.

Colorado St.

14.6

SMU

Memphis

0.5

Texas A&M

Kentucky

-7.4

Tulsa

Tulane

10.7

Utah St.

San Jose St.

21.8

Valparaiso

Missouri St.

1.8

Wake Forest

Duke

-12.6

Wyoming

Nevada

-10.8

Xavier

DePaul

7.3

 

Key TV Games On Tuesday 

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN

Texas A&M

Kentucky

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Michigan St.

Iowa

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Bowling Green

Akron

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

9:00 PM

CBSSN

SMU

Memphis

9:00 PM

SECN

Mississippi St.

Alabama

 

 

 

February 11, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 11, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

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Spread

Akron

Bowling Green

9.0

Ball St.

Northern Illinois

6.8

Boise St.

Air Force

11.4

Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan

5.4

Colorado St.

Utah St.

-2.0

Davidson

Fordham

14.5

Dayton

Rhode Island

9.6

Illinois

Michigan St.

-1.7

Kansas St.

Oklahoma St.

2.3

LSU

Missouri

10.7

Maryland

Nebraska

17.3

Ohio

Western Michigan

5.7

Ole Miss

Mississippi St.

-1.8

Purdue

Penn St.

3.0

Saint Joseph’s

St. Bonaventure

-6.9

San Diego St.

New Mexico

16.7

Syracuse

North Carolina St.

3.1

Tennessee

Arkansas

-0.3

Toledo

Miami (O)

10.2

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

-9.8

Virginia

Notre Dame

3.3

Wake Forest

North Carolina

0.3

 

The Captain’s Table

 

Top Games on TV Tuesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

BTN

Purdue

Penn St.

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Akron

Bowling Green

7:00 PM

SECN

Tennessee

Arkansas

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Syracuse

North Carolina St.

7:30 PM

CBSSN

Dayton

Rhode Island

9:00 PM

ESPN

Illinois

Michigan St.

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Virginia

Notre Dame

9:30 PM

CBSSN

Colorado St.

Utah St.

 

Captain’s Musings

 

Where the NCAA Selection Committee Gets It Wrong

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee has issued its first preliminary seeding of top 16 teams, and we at the PiRate Ratings are happy to say we predicted all 16 teams on the correct seed line.  Predicting seed lines and teams accepted to the Big Dance isn’t all that difficult, because the NCAA clearly shows its cards.  With the exception of Team 68 and occasionally Team 67, determining in advance which 68 teams receive Dance Invitations is almost as exact as multiplication and division.

Usually, when our Bracketology, or our friends on the Internet that supply their own Bracketology, are finalized on Selection Sunday, the only differences in the brackets come on the lower seed lines.  Many times, predictions for a seed line were accurate, but the Committee had to move a team up or down one seed in order to obey the NCAA’s rules about facing an opponent from the same conference in the opening rounds.

Basically, the process is done correctly every time, and when Team number 69 is left out, no matter who that team is, the folks at CBS and ESPN immediately cross-examine the Committee Chairman as if a major slight has taken place.  That is done strictly to get the public to keep watching their Selection Sunday special show, because face it, the public could just as easily wait 30 minutes and quickly see the entire field in the bracket on their computer or phone.

We have no issues with the Selection Committee every year.  They do a great job, and it isn’t easy to get a dozen highly opinionated people to agree on whether Teams 67, 68, 69, and 70 deserve to be in or left out.  The consensus usually is right.

Our problem hangs entirely on the process itself, and we have one major complaint that we believe needs to move high up on the priority line.  That statistic is where a team finishes in its own conference.

Why continue to even have conference play if a team that finishes in third place sweeps the 7th place team and then watches the 7th place team get an NCAA bid, while they have to go to the NIT.  Do you think this doesn’t happen?  Unfortunately, this, or something similar, happens almost every year.

Take a look at South Carolina last year.  The Gamecocks handily beat Florida in Gainesville, and they wiped Ole Miss off the floor.  They split with Mississippi St.  All told, USC finished a game ahead of the two Magnolia State teams and two games ahead of Florida.  Yet, they were the team left out of the NCAA Tournament, while the three teams below them in the standings all went to the Big Dance.

What good is having a conference race at all, if it means absolutely nothing, other than that the regular season champion is guaranteed a spot in the NIT if it fails to make the NCAA Tournament?

If we were named the Commissioner of College Basketball, there would be changes made.  First, we would flip the rules on automatic NCAA Tournament bids.  We’d award an automatic NCAA Tournament bid to the regular season champion of each conference and then guarantee an NIT bid to all Conference Tournament winners that did not receive an NCAA Tournament bid.

Let’s look at a possibility that would make this rule show how much better the tournament might be flipping the automatic bids.  Look at this year’s Southland Conference.  Stephen F. Austin is talented enough and well-coached enough to challenge for a Sweet 16 appearance if not more.  The Lumberjacks won at Duke in one of those games where the zebras tried their hardest to give the big team the win.  SFA players were whistled for fouls just for occupying the same city block in Durham, while Duke players had to commit felonious assault before they were whistled for fouls.  Still, SFA won the game, and had this game been played with totally unbiased officials, the Lumberjacks would have actually blown Duke off the Cameron Indoor Stadium floor.

SFA (12-1/21-3) is three games ahead of its nearest conference foe.  They are likely to enter the Southland Conference Tournament at 28-3 and no worse than 27-4.  And, for this incredible run, the Lumberjacks will be guaranteed only an NIT bid.  They will have to win the SLC Tournament to get into the Field of 68.  What if a team like Nicholls State catches SFA on a cold shooting day and upsets the Lumberjacks?  Nicholls will go bye bye in the opening game, while SFA will probably be forced to play a road NIT game and receive the same type of home-cooking officiating that they faced in Durham.

Under our system, The Lumberjacks would still go to the NCAA Tournament, while Nicholls State would be guaranteed that NIT bid or be allowed to accept the CIT bid if they preferred.  The Colonels might finish four games in back of SFA, and after a 20-game conference schedule, when one team finishes 19-1 in the league and the second best team goes 15-5, it is quite clear which team is better and more deserving of the NCAA bid.

The same holds true in the Power Conferences.  Let’s look at the crazy Big Ten race this year.  Currently, three teams, Ohio State, Indiana, and Michigan, are tied for 12th place at 5-7 in the conference.  Minnesota is a half-game ahead of the trio at 6-7.  However, if you look at the criteria used by the NCAA Selection Committee, Minnesota is barely on the bad side of the Bubble and looking at the NIT, while the other three teams are in the Field.  The Big Ten plays a 20-game conference schedule, so if any number of these four teams get in the Field, the preference should be to take the team(s) that finish higher in the standings.  20 games are enough to determine which teams are better than which teams.  Using advanced metrics is great, and we are devoted Sabermetric devotees, but we realize that actual results trump theoretical results.

 

The 2020 R+T Rating Revision

Recently, we were asked to explain how our power ratings are computed, and we gave a detailed explanation of how we rely on the “Four Factors” of basketball and then apply weightings to each of the four offensive and four defensive factors and then adjust the data based on strength of schedule and a constant (that changes a little every year).  What we basically end up with is something similar to baseball’s weighted on-base average and WAR, where instead of estimating how many wins the players on a baseball team are worth, we estimate how many points better or worse than average each team is worth.

In that explanation, we relied heavily on something that has been obvious in Major League Baseball through the “Moneyball” years.  As Oakland Athletics’ General Manager Billy Beane has so succinctly said in the past, “My stuff doesn’t work in the playoffs.”  He didn’t use the word “stuff” but the PiRates refrain from using foul language.

What Beane said was proven to be correct over and over again.  The analytics that show a team how to win 90+ games don’t apply to winning in the playoffs, and there is a reason for this.  Let’s use last year’s Tampa Bay Rays as an example.

The Rays finished 96-66 and made the playoffs.  Tampa Bay played Baltimore and Toronto 19 times each.  They played Kansas City and the LA Angels seven times and Detroit and Seattle six times.   Even against good teams like the Yankees, Twins, Indians, Astros, and Athletics, they faced those teams’ number four and number five starting pitchers between one third and 40% of the time.

In the playoffs, the Yankees are not going to use their number four and number five pitchers, except in mop up duty.  In a seven game series, they might send their number one ace out there to start games 1, 4, and 7, if he can pitch on three days rest.

Moneyball statistics and all the evolved improved statistics are meant to be used over the course of an entire season’s worth of games.  After 100 games played, the strategies of going for big innings and limiting strategies like sacrifice bunting, hit and run, stolen bases, and hitting to the right side of the infield prove to be less efficient and successful in scoring runs on the whole and even winning games.  Small ball doesn’t work when almost every team now plays in a “band box” ballpark.

However, in the playoffs, when a team is facing the opposing ace or number two pitcher, and when they face the top relievers earlier in the games at the highest leverage, attempting to draw walks and hit three-run homers isn’t going to pop those cheap champagne bottles in the clubhouse.  When Justin Verlander takes the bump in October, you beat him by scratching out a couple runs here and there and hoping your pitching staff can hold the Astros in check for a 3-2 or 2-1 victory.  If you expect to put a crooked number on the scoreboard in the 6 or 7 innings he’s on the hill, you stand a big chance of putting up a run of goose eggs.

The same theory holds true in college basketball.  Over the course of a season, shooting the ball and preventing the other team from shooting the ball is going to determine the winner more times than not.  A team that can get to the foul line and hit 75% of their foul shots to win might go 13-5 in their conference and 24-7 overall.  They might get a fat #4 seed and then promptly lose to the #13 seed from a Mid-Major conference.  And, when you look at that Mid-Major team, they weren’t great shooters, but they could clean the glass better than Windex.

At tournament time, unless your team is playing a 20-loss patsy that got hot and won their post-season tournament, or your team has a number one seed and faces a 16-seed that is far outclassed, your team better be able to rebound the ball and avoid turnovers.

Thus, through the years of the 64 to 68-team NCAA Tournaments, basketball’s “Moneyball” system of trying to win the shooting wars for six or seven games just doesn’t work like it does in the regular season, when a team might win four out of every five games all year to record a 28-7 record.  The only record that matters after the Ides of March is 6-0 or 7-0.

How does a team go 6-0 or 7-0 in the NCAA Tournament?  In almost every case, said team is incredibly proficient in getting extra scoring opportunities.  How does a team get extra scoring opportunities?  They grab more rebounds on the offensive end and prevent the other team from doing the same. They force more turnovers on the opponent than they commit, and they capitalize on steals for easier scoring opportunities.  A steal is much more valuable than any other turnover, because more points per possession are scored following a steal than any other situation.

Thus, for many years, we tried to simulate how many potential extra points a team might experience through superior rebounding and protecting the ball.  We created our R+T Rating and used this formula with great success to predict which teams might advance to the later rounds of the tournament, the Final Four, and the Championship.

In many of the seasons, if the top R+T Rating belonged to a Power Conference team, we made them our favorite to win all the marbles, and we were rewarded multiple times.  We even picked a couple of upset dark horses along the way like Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler to make it to the Final Four.  We even isolated on Connecticut to make a run in the year where they broke all the criteria and won the Championship from way back in the pack.

In this time of advanced statistics, we have been trying to improve upon our R+T Rating with a new calculation, one that relies of rate stats over counting stats.  Rebound and turnover margin and steals per game have done well for us for two decades, but we realize there is a difference between rebounding margins.  If a team wins the rebounding battle 33-28, they have done much better than a team that wins the rebounding battle 43-37.  The R+T shows that the 43-37 result is better than the 33-28 result, but that is incorrect.  The 33-28 team retrieved better than 54% of the missed shots, while the 43-37 team only retrieved 53.8%.  Additionally, because offensive rebounding is so much more difficult than defensive rebounding, we really cannot tell which team did a better job.  What if the team that had 37 rebounds from among the four listed above happened to shoot a very low percentage in their game against the team that had 43 rebounds?  What if from the 80 rebounding opportunities in their game, 48 were at their offensive end of the floor and just 32 were at their defensive end of the floor?  What if this team had 14 offensive rebounds on the 48 rebounding opportunities at their offensive end and 23 rebounds from the 32.  By using the Rebounding Rate of the Four Factors, the team that lost the rebounding battle 43-37 actually performed a little better than the team that got the 43 rebounds by the count of 29.2% to 28.1%.

Thus, we are working on a new R+T Rate.  We have been trying to work out a linear regression line with six variables and a constant, and our friends, that is really hard to do, since it involves changing weights and constants over and over until the results are tighter and tighter to the line.  After a couple months, the line is getting there.  We have settled on the handicapping of each component of the stat and only have to deal with a constant that gives us the best back-tested accuracy.  We hope to debut the new R+T Rate just before the NCAA Tournament commences in Dayton.

February 7, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 7, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:39 am

Friday’s Games

 

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Brown

Dartmouth

3.1

Buffalo

Central Michigan

4.3

Columbia

Pennsylvania

-4.6

Cornell

Princeton

-3.2

Illinois

Maryland

0.4

Manhattan

Niagara

6.2

Marist

Saint Peter’s

-3.7

Northern Illinois

Kent St.

-1.0

Quinnipiac

Iona

6.6

Rider

Canisius

6.7

Siena

Fairfield

7.2

Troy

South Alabama

-3.2

VCU

Davidson

7.8

Yale

Harvard

7.4

 

Friday’s Top TV Games

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

5:00 PM

ESPNU

Yale

Harvard

7:00 PM

CBSSN

Northern Illinois

Kent St.

7:00 PM

ESPN2

VCU

Davidson

8:00 PM

FS1

Illinois

Maryland

9:00 PM

ESPNU

Buffalo

Central Michigan

 

Friday’s PiRate Ratings

 

#

Team

PiRate

Conference

1

Duke

121.1

Atlantic Coast

2

Kansas

121.0

Big 12

3

Gonzaga

119.5

West Coast

4

Michigan St.

118.0

Big Ten

5

Baylor

117.8

Big 12

6

West Virginia

117.4

Big 12

7

Dayton

116.9

Atlantic 10

8

Louisville

116.8

Atlantic Coast

9

Arizona

116.7

Pac-12

10

San Diego St.

116.2

Mountain West

11

Maryland

115.9

Big Ten

12

Ohio St.

115.6

Big Ten

13

Seton Hall

114.7

Big East

14

Penn St.

114.6

Big Ten

15

Florida St.

114.1

Atlantic Coast

16

BYU

113.8

West Coast

17

Butler

113.5

Big East

18

Texas Tech

113.5

Big 12

19

Purdue

113.5

Big Ten

20

Oregon

113.4

Pac-12

21

Iowa

113.4

Big Ten

22

Colorado

113.3

Pac-12

23

Villanova

113.3

Big East

24

Auburn

113.0

Southeastern

25

Kentucky

112.9

Southeastern

26

Marquette

112.9

Big East

27

Michigan

112.8

Big Ten

28

Illinois

112.8

Big Ten

29

Creighton

112.5

Big East

30

Houston

112.4

American Athletic

31

Arkansas

112.4

Southeastern

32

Rutgers

112.4

Big Ten

33

LSU

112.1

Southeastern

34

Minnesota

111.9

Big Ten

35

Florida

111.5

Southeastern

36

Indiana

111.3

Big Ten

37

Wisconsin

111.3

Big Ten

38

Mississippi St.

111.2

Southeastern

39

Saint Mary’s

111.1

West Coast

40

Cincinnati

111.0

American Athletic

41

Wichita St.

110.9

American Athletic

42

VCU

110.7

Atlantic 10

43

Alabama

110.7

Southeastern

44

Utah St.

110.6

Mountain West

45

Memphis

110.1

American Athletic

46

Stanford

110.0

Pac-12

47

Oklahoma

110.0

Big 12

48

Xavier

110.0

Big East

49

Northern Iowa

109.7

Missouri Valley

50

Washington

109.7

Pac-12

51

Rhode Island

109.5

Atlantic 10

52

Georgetown

109.5

Big East

53

Notre Dame

109.3

Atlantic Coast

54

Virginia

109.3

Atlantic Coast

55

Syracuse

109.2

Atlantic Coast

56

Yale

109.0

Ivy

57

Providence

109.0

Big East

58

North Carolina St.

109.0

Atlantic Coast

59

Arizona St.

109.0

Pac-12

60

Tennessee

108.7

Southeastern

61

East Tennessee St.

108.7

Southern

62

USC

108.6

Pac-12

63

Texas

108.1

Big 12

64

Iowa St.

108.1

Big 12

65

Connecticut

108.0

American Athletic

66

Richmond

107.9

Atlantic 10

67

Georgia Tech

107.7

Atlantic Coast

68

Oklahoma St.

107.5

Big 12

69

Vermont

107.5

America East

70

North Carolina

107.4

Atlantic Coast

71

St. John’s

107.4

Big East

72

UNC Greensboro

107.3

Southern

73

Akron

107.3

Mid-American

74

Louisiana Tech

107.3

Conference USA

75

TCU

107.2

Big 12

76

SMU

107.0

American Athletic

77

DePaul

107.0

Big East

78

Furman

106.9

Southern

79

South Carolina

106.9

Southeastern

80

Pittsburgh

106.8

Atlantic Coast

81

Nevada

106.8

Mountain West

82

Kansas St.

106.8

Big 12

83

Liberty

106.7

Atlantic Sun

84

Boise St.

106.6

Mountain West

85

Georgia

106.5

Southeastern

86

Davidson

106.4

Atlantic 10

87

Virginia Tech

106.4

Atlantic Coast

88

Clemson

106.4

Atlantic Coast

89

Oregon St.

106.4

Pac-12

90

Tulsa

106.1

American Athletic

91

Duquesne

106.0

Atlantic 10

92

North Texas

105.9

Conference USA

93

San Francisco

105.7

West Coast

94

Belmont

105.7

Ohio Valley

95

Colorado St.

105.7

Mountain West

96

Loyola (Chi.)

105.0

Missouri Valley

97

Temple

105.0

American Athletic

98

Wake Forest

105.0

Atlantic Coast

99

Mississippi

104.9

Southeastern

100

New Mexico St.

104.9

Western Athletic

101

Northern Colorado

104.8

Big Sky

102

Missouri

104.8

Southeastern

103

Saint Louis

104.6

Atlantic 10

104

Harvard

104.6

Ivy

105

Western Kentucky

104.6

Conference USA

106

Ball St.

104.5

Mid-American

107

Indiana St.

104.4

Missouri Valley

108

Utah

104.4

Pac-12

109

Texas St.

104.1

Sun Belt

110

Kent St.

104.0

Mid-American

111

Georgia St.

103.9

Sun Belt

112

UCLA

103.9

Pac-12

113

UC Irvine

103.9

Big West

114

Miami (Fla.)

103.9

Atlantic Coast

115

Bradley

103.9

Missouri Valley

116

Wright St.

103.7

Horizon

117

Winthrop

103.7

Big South

118

Stephen F. Austin

103.7

Southland

119

St. Bonaventure

103.6

Atlantic 10

120

Northwestern

103.6

Big Ten

121

South Florida

103.4

American Athletic

122

Central Florida

103.4

American Athletic

123

UT Arlington

103.2

Sun Belt

124

Colgate

103.0

Patriot

125

South Dakota St.

102.9

Summit

126

Hofstra

102.9

Colonial Athletic

127

Nebraska

102.9

Big Ten

128

Charleston

102.7

Colonial Athletic

129

Washington St.

102.7

Pac-12

130

North Dakota St.

102.6

Summit

131

UNLV

102.4

Mountain West

132

Murray St.

102.4

Ohio Valley

133

Little Rock

102.4

Sun Belt

134

Northern Kentucky

102.3

Horizon

135

Wofford

102.2

Southern

136

New Mexico

102.1

Mountain West

137

Stony Brook

102.0

America East

138

Toledo

102.0

Mid-American

139

Texas A&M

101.9

Southeastern

140

Santa Clara

101.9

West Coast

141

Pacific

101.8

West Coast

142

Northeastern

101.7

Colonial Athletic

143

Penn

101.6

Ivy

144

Drake

101.3

Missouri Valley

145

Pepperdine

101.3

West Coast

146

Boston College

101.3

Atlantic Coast

147

Fresno St.

101.2

Mountain West

148

Buffalo

101.2

Mid-American

149

Oral Roberts

101.2

Summit

150

Eastern Washington

101.1

Big Sky

151

Georgia Southern

101.0

Sun Belt

152

Southern Utah

101.0

Big Sky

153

Austin Peay

100.9

Ohio Valley

154

Boston U

100.8

Patriot

155

Bowling Green

100.7

Mid-American

156

Marshall

100.7

Conference USA

157

Western Carolina

100.6

Southern

158

Southern Illinois

100.6

Missouri Valley

159

Charlotte

100.5

Conference USA

160

California

100.4

Pac-12

161

Vanderbilt

100.4

Southeastern

162

Missouri St.

100.3

Missouri Valley

163

Appalachian St.

100.1

Sun Belt

164

UC Santa Barbara

100.1

Big West

165

George Mason

100.0

Atlantic 10

166

Northern Illinois

100.0

Mid-American

167

Towson

100.0

Colonial Athletic

168

Montana

100.0

Big Sky

169

Florida Int’l.

99.9

Conference USA

170

Central Michigan

99.9

Mid-American

171

Valparaiso

99.9

Missouri Valley

172

South Alabama

99.9

Sun Belt

173

North Florida

99.8

Atlantic Sun

174

Old Dominion

99.8

Conference USA

175

South Dakota

99.8

Summit

176

Chattanooga

99.7

Southern

177

La Salle

99.6

Atlantic 10

178

Radford

99.5

Big South

179

California Baptist

99.5

Western Athletic

180

Sam Houston St.

99.5

Southland

181

Princeton

99.4

Ivy

182

UTEP

99.4

Conference USA

183

Tulane

99.1

American Athletic

184

Hawaii

99.0

Big West

185

Delaware

99.0

Colonial Athletic

186

William & Mary

98.8

Colonial Athletic

187

Lafayette

98.8

Patriot

188

Siena

98.7

Metro Atlantic

189

UAB

98.7

Conference USA

190

Rider

98.5

Metro Atlantic

191

Nicholls St.

98.4

Southland

192

Florida Atlantic

98.1

Conference USA

193

UTSA

98.1

Conference USA

194

Air Force

98.1

Mountain West

195

Massachusetts

98.0

Atlantic 10

196

Portland St.

97.9

Big Sky

197

Coastal Carolina

97.8

Sun Belt

198

St. Francis (PA)

97.8

Northeast

199

Sacred Heart

97.7

Northeast

200

Northern Arizona

97.6

Big Sky

201

Prairie View A&M

97.5

Southwestern Athl.

202

Ohio

97.5

Mid-American

203

Montana St.

97.4

Big Sky

204

Abilene Christian

97.4

Southland

205

Loyola Marymount

97.3

West Coast

206

Monmouth

97.2

Metro Atlantic

207

Arkansas St.

97.1

Sun Belt

208

George Washington

97.1

Atlantic 10

209

Omaha

97.1

Summit

210

Brown

97.0

Ivy

211

Eastern Michigan

96.9

Mid-American

212

Seattle

96.9

Western Athletic

213

Dartmouth

96.9

Ivy

214

UC Riverside

96.9

Big West

215

Rice

96.8

Conference USA

216

Sacramento St.

96.7

Big Sky

217

San Diego

96.6

West Coast

218

Saint Peter’s

96.6

Metro Atlantic

219

American

96.6

Patriot

220

Mercer

96.4

Southern

221

North Dakota

96.3

Summit

222

Green Bay

96.3

Horizon

223

Drexel

96.3

Colonial Athletic

224

Illinois St.

96.1

Missouri Valley

225

Robert Morris

96.1

Northeast

226

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.1

Western Athletic

227

East Carolina

96.0

American Athletic

228

Eastern Illinois

96.0

Ohio Valley

229

Oakland

96.0

Horizon

230

Miami (O)

95.9

Mid-American

231

Bryant

95.9

Northeast

232

Louisiana

95.9

Sun Belt

233

Merrimack

95.8

Northeast

234

Albany

95.8

America East

235

UC Davis

95.8

Big West

236

Tennessee St.

95.7

Ohio Valley

237

Missouri-KC

95.6

Western Athletic

238

Navy

95.6

Patriot

239

McNeese St.

95.6

Southland

240

Western Michigan

95.5

Mid-American

241

Quinnipiac

95.4

Metro Atlantic

242

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

Western Athletic

243

Youngstown St.

95.3

Horizon

244

Grand Canyon

95.2

Western Athletic

245

Manhattan

95.1

Metro Atlantic

246

Milwaukee

95.1

Horizon

247

Bucknell

95.1

Patriot

248

Illinois Chicago

95.0

Horizon

249

Cal St. Northridge

94.9

Big West

250

Jacksonville

94.9

Atlantic Sun

251

Long Island

94.9

Northeast

252

Canisius

94.8

Metro Atlantic

253

Fordham

94.6

Atlantic 10

254

Weber St.

94.5

Big Sky

255

Fairfield

94.5

Metro Atlantic

256

Norfolk St.

94.4

Mideastern Athletic

257

Lamar

94.4

Southland

258

Saint Joseph’s

94.4

Atlantic 10

259

Cal St. Fullerton

94.3

Big West

260

Jacksonville St.

94.3

Ohio Valley

261

Gardner-Webb

94.3

Big South

262

Mount St. Mary’s

94.2

Northeast

263

Southern Miss.

94.2

Conference USA

264

Columbia

94.0

Ivy

265

Lipscomb

94.0

Atlantic Sun

266

Texas Southern

94.0

Southwestern Athl.

267

Utah Valley

93.9

Western Athletic

268

Troy

93.7

Sun Belt

269

Hartford

93.7

America East

270

New Hampshire

93.7

America East

271

VMI

93.6

Southern

272

Middle Tennessee

93.5

Conference USA

273

Purdue Fort Wayne

93.5

Summit

274

Army

93.5

Patriot

275

North Alabama

93.3

Atlantic Sun

276

Louisiana Monroe

93.2

Sun Belt

277

Cornell

93.2

Ivy

278

Loyola (MD)

93.2

Patriot

279

UMass Lowell

93.2

America East

280

Wyoming

93.2

Mountain West

281

Evansville

93.2

Missouri Valley

282

North Carolina Central

93.1

Mideastern Athletic

283

Portland

93.1

West Coast

284

NJIT

93.0

Atlantic Sun

285

Detroit

92.9

Horizon

286

James Madison

92.6

Colonial Athletic

287

Campbell

92.6

Big South

288

Texas A&M CC

92.5

Southland

289

UNC Asheville

92.5

Big South

290

Idaho St.

92.4

Big Sky

291

North Carolina A&T

92.4

Mideastern Athletic

292

UM Baltimore Co.

92.3

America East

293

Bethune Cookman

92.2

Mideastern Athletic

294

Samford

92.1

Southern

295

Stetson

92.0

Atlantic Sun

296

Morehead St.

92.0

Ohio Valley

297

Charleston Southern

91.9

Big South

298

Central Arkansas

91.9

Southland

299

Eastern Kentucky

91.9

Ohio Valley

300

Niagara

91.9

Metro Atlantic

301

San Jose St.

91.8

Mountain West

302

Iona

91.8

Metro Atlantic

303

Alcorn St.

91.7

Southwestern Athl.

304

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.4

Northeast

305

St. Francis (NY)

91.4

Northeast

306

Elon

91.4

Colonial Athletic

307

Southern

91.3

Southwestern Athl.

308

Idaho

91.2

Big Sky

309

Cleveland St.

91.0

Horizon

310

Denver

90.9

Summit

311

Grambling

90.7

Southwestern Athl.

312

Long Beach St.

90.7

Big West

313

Florida Gulf Coast

90.6

Atlantic Sun

314

Cal Poly

90.6

Big West

315

Lehigh

90.6

Patriot

316

UT-Martin

90.5

Ohio Valley

317

Citadel

90.5

Southern

318

USC Upstate

90.5

Big South

319

UNC Wilmington

90.4

Colonial Athletic

320

New Orleans

90.4

Southland

321

Florida A&M

90.4

Mideastern Athletic

322

Longwood

90.3

Big South

323

Morgan St.

90.3

Mideastern Athletic

324

Northwestern St.

90.1

Southland

325

Jackson St.

89.9

Southwestern Athl.

326

Hampton

89.9

Big South

327

Marist

89.9

Metro Atlantic

328

Western Illinois

89.1

Summit

329

Wagner

88.9

Northeast

330

IUPUI

88.8

Horizon

331

Maine

88.5

America East

332

Coppin St.

88.4

Mideastern Athletic

333

Alabama St.

88.4

Southwestern Athl.

334

Presbyterian

88.4

Big South

335

South Carolina St.

88.1

Mideastern Athletic

336

SE Missouri

88.1

Ohio Valley

337

Binghamton

88.1

America East

338

Tennessee Tech

87.4

Ohio Valley

339

SE Louisiana

86.9

Southland

340

SIU Edwardsville

86.8

Ohio Valley

341

Holy Cross

86.4

Patriot

342

High Point

86.2

Big South

343

Alabama A&M

86.2

Southwestern Athl.

344

Houston Baptist

85.3

Southland

345

Incarnate Word

83.7

Southland

346

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.5

Southwestern Athl.

347

Central Connecticut

81.6

Northeast

348

Howard

81.6

Mideastern Athletic

349

MD Eastern Shore

81.0

Mideastern Athletic

350

Kennesaw St.

80.8

Atlantic Sun

351

Delaware St.

80.6

Mideastern Athletic

352

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Southwestern Athl.

353

Chicago St.

76.7

Western Athletic

 

Alphabetical

 

Team

PiRate

Conf.

Abilene Christian

97.4

Southland

Air Force

98.1

Mountain West

Akron

107.3

Mid-American

Alabama

110.7

Southeastern

Alabama A&M

86.2

Southwestern Athl.

Alabama St.

88.4

Southwestern Athl.

Albany

95.8

America East

Alcorn St.

91.7

Southwestern Athl.

American

96.6

Patriot

Appalachian St.

100.1

Sun Belt

Arizona

116.7

Pac-12

Arizona St.

109.0

Pac-12

Arkansas

112.4

Southeastern

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.5

Southwestern Athl.

Arkansas St.

97.1

Sun Belt

Army

93.5

Patriot

Auburn

113.0

Southeastern

Austin Peay

100.9

Ohio Valley

Ball St.

104.5

Mid-American

Baylor

117.8

Big 12

Belmont

105.7

Ohio Valley

Bethune Cookman

92.2

Mideastern Athletic

Binghamton

88.1

America East

Boise St.

106.6

Mountain West

Boston College

101.3

Atlantic Coast

Boston U

100.8

Patriot

Bowling Green

100.7

Mid-American

Bradley

103.9

Missouri Valley

Brown

97.0

Ivy

Bryant

95.9

Northeast

Bucknell

95.1

Patriot

Buffalo

101.2

Mid-American

Butler

113.5

Big East

BYU

113.8

West Coast

Cal Poly

90.6

Big West

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.1

Western Athletic

Cal St. Fullerton

94.3

Big West

Cal St. Northridge

94.9

Big West

California

100.4

Pac-12

California Baptist

99.5

Western Athletic

Campbell

92.6

Big South

Canisius

94.8

Metro Atlantic

Central Arkansas

91.9

Southland

Central Connecticut

81.6

Northeast

Central Florida

103.4

American Athletic

Central Michigan

99.9

Mid-American

Charleston

102.7

Colonial Athletic

Charleston Southern

91.9

Big South

Charlotte

100.5

Conference USA

Chattanooga

99.7

Southern

Chicago St.

76.7

Western Athletic

Cincinnati

111.0

American Athletic

Citadel

90.5

Southern

Clemson

106.4

Atlantic Coast

Cleveland St.

91.0

Horizon

Coastal Carolina

97.8

Sun Belt

Colgate

103.0

Patriot

Colorado

113.3

Pac-12

Colorado St.

105.7

Mountain West

Columbia

94.0

Ivy

Connecticut

108.0

American Athletic

Coppin St.

88.4

Mideastern Athletic

Cornell

93.2

Ivy

Creighton

112.5

Big East

Dartmouth

96.9

Ivy

Davidson

106.4

Atlantic 10

Dayton

116.9

Atlantic 10

Delaware

99.0

Colonial Athletic

Delaware St.

80.6

Mideastern Athletic

Denver

90.9

Summit

DePaul

107.0

Big East

Detroit

92.9

Horizon

Drake

101.3

Missouri Valley

Drexel

96.3

Colonial Athletic

Duke

121.1

Atlantic Coast

Duquesne

106.0

Atlantic 10

East Carolina

96.0

American Athletic

East Tennessee St.

108.7

Southern

Eastern Illinois

96.0

Ohio Valley

Eastern Kentucky

91.9

Ohio Valley

Eastern Michigan

96.9

Mid-American

Eastern Washington

101.1

Big Sky

Elon

91.4

Colonial Athletic

Evansville

93.2

Missouri Valley

Fairfield

94.5

Metro Atlantic

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.4

Northeast

Florida

111.5

Southeastern

Florida A&M

90.4

Mideastern Athletic

Florida Atlantic

98.1

Conference USA

Florida Gulf Coast

90.6

Atlantic Sun

Florida Int’l.

99.9

Conference USA

Florida St.

114.1

Atlantic Coast

Fordham

94.6

Atlantic 10

Fresno St.

101.2

Mountain West

Furman

106.9

Southern

Gardner-Webb

94.3

Big South

George Mason

100.0

Atlantic 10

George Washington

97.1

Atlantic 10

Georgetown

109.5

Big East

Georgia

106.5

Southeastern

Georgia Southern

101.0

Sun Belt

Georgia St.

103.9

Sun Belt

Georgia Tech

107.7

Atlantic Coast

Gonzaga

119.5

West Coast

Grambling

90.7

Southwestern Athl.

Grand Canyon

95.2

Western Athletic

Green Bay

96.3

Horizon

Hampton

89.9

Big South

Hartford

93.7

America East

Harvard

104.6

Ivy

Hawaii

99.0

Big West

High Point

86.2

Big South

Hofstra

102.9

Colonial Athletic

Holy Cross

86.4

Patriot

Houston

112.4

American Athletic

Houston Baptist

85.3

Southland

Howard

81.6

Mideastern Athletic

Idaho

91.2

Big Sky

Idaho St.

92.4

Big Sky

Illinois

112.8

Big Ten

Illinois Chicago

95.0

Horizon

Illinois St.

96.1

Missouri Valley

Incarnate Word

83.7

Southland

Indiana

111.3

Big Ten

Indiana St.

104.4

Missouri Valley

Iona

91.8

Metro Atlantic

Iowa

113.4

Big Ten

Iowa St.

108.1

Big 12

IUPUI

88.8

Horizon

Jackson St.

89.9

Southwestern Athl.

Jacksonville

94.9

Atlantic Sun

Jacksonville St.

94.3

Ohio Valley

James Madison

92.6

Colonial Athletic

Kansas

121.0

Big 12

Kansas St.

106.8

Big 12

Kennesaw St.

80.8

Atlantic Sun

Kent St.

104.0

Mid-American

Kentucky

112.9

Southeastern

La Salle

99.6

Atlantic 10

Lafayette

98.8

Patriot

Lamar

94.4

Southland

Lehigh

90.6

Patriot

Liberty

106.7

Atlantic Sun

Lipscomb

94.0

Atlantic Sun

Little Rock

102.4

Sun Belt

Long Beach St.

90.7

Big West

Long Island

94.9

Northeast

Longwood

90.3

Big South

Louisiana

95.9

Sun Belt

Louisiana Monroe

93.2

Sun Belt

Louisiana Tech

107.3

Conference USA

Louisville

116.8

Atlantic Coast

Loyola (Chi.)

105.0

Missouri Valley

Loyola Marymount

97.3

West Coast

Loyola (MD)

93.2

Patriot

LSU

112.1

Southeastern

Maine

88.5

America East

Manhattan

95.1

Metro Atlantic

Marist

89.9

Metro Atlantic

Marquette

112.9

Big East

Marshall

100.7

Conference USA

Maryland

115.9

Big Ten

Massachusetts

98.0

Atlantic 10

McNeese St.

95.6

Southland

MD Eastern Shore

81.0

Mideastern Athletic

Memphis

110.1

American Athletic

Mercer

96.4

Southern

Merrimack

95.8

Northeast

Miami (Fla.)

103.9

Atlantic Coast

Miami (O)

95.9

Mid-American

Michigan

112.8

Big Ten

Michigan St.

118.0

Big Ten

Middle Tennessee

93.5

Conference USA

Milwaukee

95.1

Horizon

Minnesota

111.9

Big Ten

Mississippi

104.9

Southeastern

Mississippi St.

111.2

Southeastern

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Southwestern Athl.

Missouri

104.8

Southeastern

Missouri-KC

95.6

Western Athletic

Missouri St.

100.3

Missouri Valley

Monmouth

97.2

Metro Atlantic

Montana

100.0

Big Sky

Montana St.

97.4

Big Sky

Morehead St.

92.0

Ohio Valley

Morgan St.

90.3

Mideastern Athletic

Mount St. Mary’s

94.2

Northeast

Murray St.

102.4

Ohio Valley

Navy

95.6

Patriot

Nebraska

102.9

Big Ten

Nevada

106.8

Mountain West

New Hampshire

93.7

America East

New Mexico

102.1

Mountain West

New Mexico St.

104.9

Western Athletic

New Orleans

90.4

Southland

Niagara

91.9

Metro Atlantic

Nicholls St.

98.4

Southland

NJIT

93.0

Atlantic Sun

Norfolk St.

94.4

Mideastern Athletic

North Alabama

93.3

Atlantic Sun

North Carolina

107.4

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina A&T

92.4

Mideastern Athletic

North Carolina Central

93.1

Mideastern Athletic

North Carolina St.

109.0

Atlantic Coast

North Dakota

96.3

Summit

North Dakota St.

102.6

Summit

North Florida

99.8

Atlantic Sun

North Texas

105.9

Conference USA

Northeastern

101.7

Colonial Athletic

Northern Arizona

97.6

Big Sky

Northern Colorado

104.8

Big Sky

Northern Illinois

100.0

Mid-American

Northern Iowa

109.7

Missouri Valley

Northern Kentucky

102.3

Horizon

Northwestern

103.6

Big Ten

Northwestern St.

90.1

Southland

Notre Dame

109.3

Atlantic Coast

Oakland

96.0

Horizon

Ohio

97.5

Mid-American

Ohio St.

115.6

Big Ten

Oklahoma

110.0

Big 12

Oklahoma St.

107.5

Big 12

Old Dominion

99.8

Conference USA

Omaha

97.1

Summit

Oral Roberts

101.2

Summit

Oregon

113.4

Pac-12

Oregon St.

106.4

Pac-12

Pacific

101.8

West Coast

Penn

101.6

Ivy

Penn St.

114.6

Big Ten

Pepperdine

101.3

West Coast

Pittsburgh

106.8

Atlantic Coast

Portland

93.1

West Coast

Portland St.

97.9

Big Sky

Prairie View A&M

97.5

Southwestern Athl.

Presbyterian

88.4

Big South

Princeton

99.4

Ivy

Providence

109.0

Big East

Purdue

113.5

Big Ten

Purdue Fort Wayne

93.5

Summit

Quinnipiac

95.4

Metro Atlantic

Radford

99.5

Big South

Rhode Island

109.5

Atlantic 10

Rice

96.8

Conference USA

Richmond

107.9

Atlantic 10

Rider

98.5

Metro Atlantic

Robert Morris

96.1

Northeast

Rutgers

112.4

Big Ten

Sacramento St.

96.7

Big Sky

Sacred Heart

97.7

Northeast

Saint Joseph’s

94.4

Atlantic 10

Saint Louis

104.6

Atlantic 10

Saint Mary’s

111.1

West Coast

Saint Peter’s

96.6

Metro Atlantic

Sam Houston St.

99.5

Southland

Samford

92.1

Southern

San Diego

96.6

West Coast

San Diego St.

116.2

Mountain West

San Francisco

105.7

West Coast

San Jose St.

91.8

Mountain West

Santa Clara

101.9

West Coast

SE Louisiana

86.9

Southland

SE Missouri

88.1

Ohio Valley

Seattle

96.9

Western Athletic

Seton Hall

114.7

Big East

Siena

98.7

Metro Atlantic

SIU Edwardsville

86.8

Ohio Valley

SMU

107.0

American Athletic

South Alabama

99.9

Sun Belt

South Carolina

106.9

Southeastern

South Carolina St.

88.1

Mideastern Athletic

South Dakota

99.8

Summit

South Dakota St.

102.9

Summit

South Florida

103.4

American Athletic

Southern

91.3

Southwestern Athl.

Southern Illinois

100.6

Missouri Valley

Southern Miss.

94.2

Conference USA

Southern Utah

101.0

Big Sky

St. Bonaventure

103.6

Atlantic 10

St. Francis (NY)

91.4

Northeast

St. Francis (PA)

97.8

Northeast

St. John’s

107.4

Big East

Stanford

110.0

Pac-12

Stephen F. Austin

103.7

Southland

Stetson

92.0

Atlantic Sun

Stony Brook

102.0

America East

Syracuse

109.2

Atlantic Coast

TCU

107.2

Big 12

Temple

105.0

American Athletic

Tennessee

108.7

Southeastern

Tennessee St.

95.7

Ohio Valley

Tennessee Tech

87.4

Ohio Valley

Texas

108.1

Big 12

Texas A&M

101.9

Southeastern

Texas A&M CC

92.5

Southland

Texas Southern

94.0

Southwestern Athl.

Texas St.

104.1

Sun Belt

Texas Tech

113.5

Big 12

Toledo

102.0

Mid-American

Towson

100.0

Colonial Athletic

Troy

93.7

Sun Belt

Tulane

99.1

American Athletic

Tulsa

106.1

American Athletic

UAB

98.7

Conference USA

UC Davis

95.8

Big West

UC Irvine

103.9

Big West

UC Riverside

96.9

Big West

UC Santa Barbara

100.1

Big West

UCLA

103.9

Pac-12

UM Baltimore Co.

92.3

America East

UMass Lowell

93.2

America East

UNC Asheville

92.5

Big South

UNC Greensboro

107.3

Southern

UNC Wilmington

90.4

Colonial Athletic

UNLV

102.4

Mountain West

USC

108.6

Pac-12

USC Upstate

90.5

Big South

UT Arlington

103.2

Sun Belt

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

Western Athletic

UT-Martin

90.5

Ohio Valley

Utah

104.4

Pac-12

Utah St.

110.6

Mountain West

Utah Valley

93.9

Western Athletic

UTEP

99.4

Conference USA

UTSA

98.1

Conference USA

Valparaiso

99.9

Missouri Valley

Vanderbilt

100.4

Southeastern

VCU

110.7

Atlantic 10

Vermont

107.5

America East

Villanova

113.3

Big East

Virginia

109.3

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Tech

106.4

Atlantic Coast

VMI

93.6

Southern

Wagner

88.9

Northeast

Wake Forest

105.0

Atlantic Coast

Washington

109.7

Pac-12

Washington St.

102.7

Pac-12

Weber St.

94.5

Big Sky

West Virginia

117.4

Big 12

Western Carolina

100.6

Southern

Western Illinois

89.1

Summit

Western Kentucky

104.6

Conference USA

Western Michigan

95.5

Mid-American

Wichita St.

110.9

American Athletic

William & Mary

98.8

Colonial Athletic

Winthrop

103.7

Big South

Wisconsin

111.3

Big Ten

Wofford

102.2

Southern

Wright St.

103.7

Horizon

Wyoming

93.2

Mountain West

Xavier

110.0

Big East

Yale

109.0

Ivy

Youngstown St.

95.3

Horizon

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

#

America East

PiRate

1

Vermont

107.5

2

Stony Brook

102.0

3

Albany

95.8

4

Hartford

93.7

5

New Hampshire

93.7

6

UMass Lowell

93.2

7

UM Baltimore Co.

92.3

8

Maine

88.5

9

Binghamton

88.1

Avg

America East

95.0

 

 

#

American Athletic

PiRate

1

Houston

112.4

2

Cincinnati

111.0

3

Wichita St.

110.9

4

Memphis

110.1

5

Connecticut

108.0

6

SMU

107.0

7

Tulsa

106.1

8

Temple

105.0

9

South Florida

103.4

10

Central Florida

103.4

11

Tulane

99.1

12

East Carolina

96.0

Avg

American Athletic

106.1

 

 

#

Atlantic 10

PiRate

1

Dayton

116.9

2

VCU

110.7

3

Rhode Island

109.5

4

Richmond

107.9

5

Davidson

106.4

6

Duquesne

106.0

7

Saint Louis

104.6

8

St. Bonaventure

103.6

9

George Mason

100.0

10

La Salle

99.6

11

Massachusetts

98.0

12

George Washington

97.1

13

Fordham

94.6

14

Saint Joseph’s

94.4

Avg.

Atlantic 10

103.5

 

 

#

Atlantic Coast

PiRate

1

Duke

121.1

2

Louisville

116.8

3

Florida St.

114.1

4

Notre Dame

109.3

5

Virginia

109.3

6

Syracuse

109.2

7

North Carolina St.

109.0

8

Georgia Tech

107.7

9

North Carolina

107.4

10

Pittsburgh

106.8

11

Virginia Tech

106.4

12

Clemson

106.4

13

Wake Forest

105.0

14

Miami (Fla.)

103.9

15

Boston College

101.3

Avg

Atlantic Coast

108.9

 

 

#

Atlantic Sun

PiRate

1

Liberty

106.7

2

North Florida

99.8

3

Jacksonville

94.9

4

Lipscomb

94.0

5

North Alabama

93.3

6

NJIT

93.0

7

Stetson

92.0

8

Florida Gulf Coast

90.6

9

Kennesaw St.

80.8

Avg

Atlantic Sun

93.9

 

 

#

Big 12

PiRate

1

Kansas

121.0

2

Baylor

117.8

3

West Virginia

117.4

4

Texas Tech

113.5

5

Oklahoma

110.0

6

Texas

108.1

7

Iowa St.

108.1

8

Oklahoma St.

107.5

9

TCU

107.2

10

Kansas St.

106.8

Avg

Big 12

111.7

 

 

#

Big East

PiRate

1

Seton Hall

114.7

2

Butler

113.5

3

Villanova

113.3

4

Marquette

112.9

5

Creighton

112.5

6

Xavier

110.0

7

Georgetown

109.5

8

Providence

109.0

9

St. John’s

107.4

10

DePaul

107.0

Avg

Big East

111.0

 

 

#

Big Sky

PiRate

1

Northern Colorado

104.8

2

Eastern Washington

101.1

3

Southern Utah

101.0

4

Montana

100.0

5

Portland St.

97.9

6

Northern Arizona

97.6

7

Montana St.

97.4

8

Sacramento St.

96.7

9

Weber St.

94.5

10

Idaho St.

92.4

11

Idaho

91.2

#

Big Sky

97.7

 

 

#

Big South

PiRate

1

Winthrop

103.7

2

Radford

99.5

3

Gardner-Webb

94.3

4

Campbell

92.6

5

UNC Asheville

92.5

6

Charleston Southern

91.9

7

USC Upstate

90.5

8

Longwood

90.3

9

Hampton

89.9

10

Presbyterian

88.4

11

High Point

86.2

Avg

Big South

92.7

 

 

#

Big Ten

PiRate

1

Michigan St.

118.0

2

Maryland

115.9

3

Ohio St.

115.6

4

Penn St.

114.6

5

Purdue

113.5

6

Iowa

113.4

7

Michigan

112.8

8

Illinois

112.8

9

Rutgers

112.4

10

Minnesota

111.9

11

Indiana

111.3

12

Wisconsin

111.3

13

Northwestern

103.6

14

Nebraska

102.9

Avg

Big Ten

112.1

 

 

#

Big West

PiRate

1

UC Irvine

103.9

2

UC Santa Barbara

100.1

3

Hawaii

99.0

4

UC Riverside

96.9

5

UC Davis

95.8

6

Cal St. Northridge

94.9

7

Cal St. Fullerton

94.3

8

Long Beach St.

90.7

9

Cal Poly

90.6

Avg

Big West

96.2

 

 

#

Colonial Athletic

PiRate

1

Hofstra

102.9

2

Charleston

102.7

3

Northeastern

101.7

4

Towson

100.0

5

Delaware

99.0

6

William & Mary

98.8

7

Drexel

96.3

8

James Madison

92.6

9

Elon

91.4

10

UNC Wilmington

90.4

Avg

Colonial Athletic

97.6

 

 

#

Conference USA

PiRate

1

Louisiana Tech

107.3

2

North Texas

105.9

3

Western Kentucky

104.6

4

Marshall

100.7

5

Charlotte

100.5

6

Florida Int’l.

99.9

7

Old Dominion

99.8

8

UTEP

99.4

9

UAB

98.7

10

Florida Atlantic

98.1

11

UTSA

98.1

12

Rice

96.8

13

Southern Miss.

94.2

14

Middle Tennessee

93.5

Avg

Conference USA

99.8

 

 

#

Horizon

PiRate

1

Wright St.

103.7

2

Northern Kentucky

102.3

3

Green Bay

96.3

4

Oakland

96.0

5

Youngstown St.

95.3

6

Milwaukee

95.1

7

Illinois Chicago

95.0

8

Detroit

92.9

9

Cleveland St.

91.0

10

IUPUI

88.8

Avg

Horizon

95.6

 

 

#

Ivy

PiRate

1

Yale

109.0

2

Harvard

104.6

3

Penn

101.6

4

Princeton

99.4

5

Brown

97.0

6

Dartmouth

96.9

7

Columbia

94.0

8

Cornell

93.2

Avg

Ivy

99.5

 

 

#

Metro Atlantic

PiRate

1

Siena

98.7

2

Rider

98.5

3

Monmouth

97.2

4

Saint Peter’s

96.6

5

Quinnipiac

95.4

6

Manhattan

95.1

7

Canisius

94.8

8

Fairfield

94.5

9

Niagara

91.9

10

Iona

91.8

11

Marist

89.9

Avg

Metro Atlantic

94.9

 

 

#

Mid-American

PiRate

1

Akron

107.3

2

Ball St.

104.5

3

Kent St.

104.0

4

Toledo

102.0

5

Buffalo

101.2

6

Bowling Green

100.7

7

Northern Illinois

100.0

8

Central Michigan

99.9

9

Ohio

97.5

10

Eastern Michigan

96.9

11

Miami (O)

95.9

12

Western Michigan

95.5

Avg

Mid-American

100.5

 

 

#

Mideastern Athletic

PiRate

1

Norfolk St.

94.4

2

North Carolina Central

93.1

3

North Carolina A&T

92.4

4

Bethune Cookman

92.2

5

Florida A&M

90.4

6

Morgan St.

90.3

7

Coppin St.

88.4

8

South Carolina St.

88.1

9

Howard

81.6

10

MD Eastern Shore

81.0

11

Delaware St.

80.6

Avg

Mideastern Athletic

88.4

 

 

#

Missouri Valley

PiRate

1

Northern Iowa

109.7

2

Loyola (Chi.)

105.0

3

Indiana St.

104.4

4

Bradley

103.9

5

Drake

101.3

6

Southern Illinois

100.6

7

Missouri St.

100.3

8

Valparaiso

99.9

9

Illinois St.

96.1

10

Evansville

93.2

Avg

Missouri Valley

101.4

 

 

#

Mountain West

PiRate

1

San Diego St.

116.2

2

Utah St.

110.6

3

Nevada

106.8

4

Boise St.

106.6

5

Colorado St.

105.7

6

UNLV

102.4

7

New Mexico

102.1

8

Fresno St.

101.2

9

Air Force

98.1

10

Wyoming

93.2

11

San Jose St.

91.8

Avg

Mountain West

103.1

 

 

#

Northeast

PiRate

1

St. Francis (PA)

97.8

2

Sacred Heart

97.7

3

Robert Morris

96.1

4

Bryant

95.9

5

Merrimack

95.8

6

Long Island

94.9

7

Mount St. Mary’s

94.2

8

Fairleigh Dickinson

91.4

9

St. Francis (NY)

91.4

10

Wagner

88.9

11

Central Connecticut

81.6

Avg

Northeast

93.3

 

 

#

Ohio Valley

PiRate

1

Belmont

105.7

2

Murray St.

102.4

3

Austin Peay

100.9

4

Eastern Illinois

96.0

5

Tennessee St.

95.7

6

Jacksonville St.

94.3

7

Morehead St.

92.0

8

Eastern Kentucky

91.9

9

UT-Martin

90.5

10

SE Missouri

88.1

11

Tennessee Tech

87.4

12

SIU Edwardsville

86.8

Avg

Ohio Valley

94.3

 

 

#

Pac-12

PiRate

1

Arizona

116.7

2

Oregon

113.4

3

Colorado

113.3

4

Stanford

110.0

5

Washington

109.7

6

Arizona St.

109.0

7

USC

108.6

8

Oregon St.

106.4

9

Utah

104.4

10

UCLA

103.9

11

Washington St.

102.7

12

California

100.4

Avg

Pac-12

108.2

 

 

#

Patriot

PiRate

1

Colgate

103.0

2

Boston U

100.8

3

Lafayette

98.8

4

American

96.6

5

Navy

95.6

6

Bucknell

95.1

7

Army

93.5

8

Loyola (MD)

93.2

9

Lehigh

90.6

10

Holy Cross

86.4

Avg

Patriot

95.3

 

 

#

Southeastern

PiRate

1

Auburn

113.0

2

Kentucky

112.9

3

Arkansas

112.4

4

LSU

112.1

5

Florida

111.5

6

Mississippi St.

111.2

7

Alabama

110.7

8

Tennessee

108.7

9

South Carolina

106.9

10

Georgia

106.5

11

Mississippi

104.9

12

Missouri

104.8

13

Texas A&M

101.9

14

Vanderbilt

100.4

Avg

Southeastern

108.4

 

 

#

Southern

PiRate

1

East Tennessee St.

108.7

2

UNC Greensboro

107.3

3

Furman

106.9

4

Wofford

102.2

5

Western Carolina

100.6

6

Chattanooga

99.7

7

Mercer

96.4

8

VMI

93.6

9

Samford

92.1

10

Citadel

90.5

Avg

Southern

99.8

 

 

#

Southland

PiRate

1

Stephen F. Austin

103.7

2

Sam Houston St.

99.5

3

Nicholls St.

98.4

4

Abilene Christian

97.4

5

McNeese St.

95.6

6

Lamar

94.4

7

Texas A&M CC

92.5

8

Central Arkansas

91.9

9

New Orleans

90.4

10

Northwestern St.

90.1

11

SE Louisiana

86.9

12

Houston Baptist

85.3

13

Incarnate Word

83.7

Avg

Southland

93.1

 

 

#

Southwestern Athletic

PiRate

1

Prairie View A&M

97.5

2

Texas Southern

94.0

3

Alcorn St.

91.7

4

Southern

91.3

5

Grambling

90.7

6

Jackson St.

89.9

7

Alabama St.

88.4

8

Alabama A&M

86.2

9

Arkansas Pine Bluff

83.5

10

Mississippi Valley St.

77.0

Avg

Southwestern Athletic

89.0

 

 

#

Summit

PiRate

1

South Dakota St.

102.9

2

North Dakota St.

102.6

3

Oral Roberts

101.2

4

South Dakota

99.8

5

Omaha

97.1

6

North Dakota

96.3

7

Purdue Fort Wayne

93.5

8

Denver

90.9

9

Western Illinois

89.1

Avg

Summit

97.0

 

 

#

Sun Belt

PiRate

1

Texas St.

104.1

2

Georgia St.

103.9

3

UT Arlington

103.2

4

Little Rock

102.4

5

Georgia Southern

101.0

6

Appalachian St.

100.1

7

South Alabama

99.9

8

Coastal Carolina

97.8

9

Arkansas St.

97.1

10

Louisiana

95.9

11

Troy

93.7

12

Louisiana Monroe

93.2

Avg

Sun Belt

99.4

 

 

#

West Coast

PiRate

1

Gonzaga

119.5

2

BYU

113.8

3

Saint Mary’s

111.1

4

San Francisco

105.7

5

Santa Clara

101.9

6

Pacific

101.8

7

Pepperdine

101.3

8

Loyola Marymount

97.3

9

San Diego

96.6

10

Portland

93.1

Avg

West Coast

104.2

 

 

#

Western Athletic

PiRate

1

New Mexico St.

104.9

2

California Baptist

99.5

3

Seattle

96.9

4

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.1

5

Missouri-KC

95.6

6

UT Rio Grande Valley

95.3

7

Grand Canyon

95.2

8

Utah Valley

93.9

9

Chicago St.

76.7

Avg

Western Athletic

94.9

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

Conference

PiRate

1

Big Ten

112.1

2

Big 12

111.7

3

Big East

111.0

4

Atlantic Coast

108.9

5

Southeastern

108.4

6

Pac-12

108.2

7

American Athletic

106.1

8

West Coast

104.2

9

Atlantic 10

103.5

10

Mountain West

103.1

11

Missouri Valley

101.4

12

Mid-American

100.5

13

Conference USA

99.8

14

Southern

99.8

15

Ivy

99.5

16

Sun Belt

99.4

17

Big Sky

97.7

18

Colonial Athletic

97.6

19

Summit

97.0

20

Big West

96.2

21

Horizon

95.6

22

Patriot

95.3

23

America East

95.0

24

Metro Atlantic

94.9

25

Western Athletic

94.9

26

Ohio Valley

94.3

27

Atlantic Sun

93.9

28

Northeast

93.3

29

Southland

93.1

30

Big South

92.7

31

Southwestern Athletic

89.0

32

Mideastern Athletic

88.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 27, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 27, 2020

 

Date

1/27/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

San Diego St.

Kansas

2

Florida St.

Duke

Seton Hall

Louisville

3

West Virginia

Oregon

Michigan St.

Dayton

4

Villanova

Butler

Maryland

Kentucky

5

Iowa

Colorado

Creighton

Penn St.

6

LSU

Illinois

Auburn

Wisconsin

7

Rutgers

Arizona

Marquette

Houston

8

Wichita St.

USC

Indiana

Ohio St.

9

Arkansas

Oklahoma

Stanford

Saint Mary’s

10

Michigan

Florida

BYU

Texas Tech

11

N. Carolina St.

Purdue

East Tennessee St.

VCU

Virginia Tech

12

Northern Iowa

Akron

Stephen F. Austin

Memphis

Minnesota

13

Liberty

New Mexico St.

Harvard

Vermont

14

North Texas

Wright St.

Colgate

Little Rock

15

William & Mary

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

South Dakota St.

16

Winthrop

Montana

Monmouth

Norfolk St.

Prairie View A&M

Robert Morris

First Four Out

DePaul

Arizona St.

Syracuse

Alabama

Next Four Out

Rhode Island

Virginia

Richmond

Tennessee

 

Tonight’s Best TV Games

Time

Network

Home

Visitor

6:00 PM

6:00 PM

ESPNU

ESPN

Norfolk St.

North Carolina St.

Florida A&M

North Carolina

7:30 PM

BigTen

Iowa

Wisconsin

8:00 PM

ESPN2

Oklahoma St.

Kansas

 

January 8, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 8, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:19 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Wednesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Alabama

Mississippi St.

3.4

Auburn

Vanderbilt

16.4

Boise St.

UNLV

6.0

Cincinnati

Tulsa

8.0

Connecticut

Tulane

11.0

Georgetown

St. John’s

5.0

Georgia Tech

Duke

-13.1

Indiana

Northwestern

11.1

Iowa St.

Kansas

-7.2

LSU

Arkansas

4.5

North Carolina

Pittsburgh

6.5

North Carolina St.

Notre Dame

5.5

San Jose St.

Nevada

-11.9

SMU

Central Florida

6.1

Texas

Oklahoma

1.4

Wake Forest

Florida St.

-6.4

Wisconsin

Illinois

3.8

Wyoming

San Diego St.

-18.6

Xavier

Seton Hall

0.7

 

March 29, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 29, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Michigan St.

121.0

0.0

LSU

114.5

6.5

North Carolina

121.4

0.0

Auburn

115.9

5.5

Duke

122.4

0.0

Virginia Tech

115.4

7.0

Kentucky

118.3

0.0

Houston

116.0

2.3

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team

Team

TIME (EDT)

TV

LOCATION

LSU

Michigan St.

7:09 PM

CBS

Washington, D.C.

Auburn

N. Carolina

7:29 PM

TBS

Kansas City

Va. Tech

Duke

9:39 PM

CBS

Washington, D.C.

Houston

Kentucky

9:59 PM

TBS

Kansas City

March 27, 2019

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Sweet 16

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:32 am

What a Sweet 16 we have!  My experience in watching the NCAA Tournament goes back to the 1964 season as UCLA went 30-0 using a small lineup with no starter over 6 foot 5.  The 16-0 run in 2 1/2 minutes made me a Bruin fan on the spot, especially because one of the catalysts was small,left-handed guard Gail Goodrich; I was also a small, left-handed guard.

On the whole, my memory now includes 56 different NCAA Tournaments.  I had a difficult time finding a Sweet 16 as strong as this one.  I had to go back to the 1970 season to find the equivalent in power teams still in the Dance.  Of course, in 1970,  there were just 25 teams invited to the Tournament, so 18 teams competed in the opening round, while another seven received express bids to the Sweet 16.

Among that talented group of 1970 teams, there were:

  1. UCLA was not supposed to win the 1970 tournament, as Kareem Abdul Jabbar and his fantastic class of 1969 graduated.  Sidney Wicks, Curtis Rowe, and Henry Bibby gave John Wooden an incredibly talented trio to build around as he went back to his high post offense.

  2. Jacksonville had Artis Gilmore and Rex Morgan as an incredible inside-outside attack.  The Dolphins averaged close to 100 points per game and had a second starter in their lineup, Pembroke Burrows, who was over 7 feet tall.

  3. St. Bonaventure had the best player in college basketball not named Maravich in Bob Lanier.  Lanier led the Bonnies to the top of the Eastern Elite, and SBU made it to the Final Four.  However, Lanier was injured in the East Regional Final and SBU had no chance in the Final Four against Jacksonville.

  4. New Mexico State was in the top 5 all year long with future NBA stars Charlie Criss and Sam Lacey as well as hot shooting Jimmy Collins.  The Aggies were picked by many as capable of beating UCLA in the national semifinals.  Wicks and Rowe put NMSU out of their misery early in the second half.

  5. Kentucky might have had the best team in the nation in 1970 had star guard Mike Casey not have suffered season-ending injuries in a car wreck the summer before.  With Dan Issel, Mike Pratt, Tom Parker, and Larry Steele, the Wildcats might have gone 30-0 had Casey not hurt his leg.

  6. Niagara had the incomparable 5 foot 9 inch Calvin Murphy who was the total package on the hardwoods.  Murphy averaged well over 30 ppg for his career with the Purple Eagles and enjoyed a lengthy pro career.  He once scored 68 points against Syracuse.  He was a lot more than a scorer.  His defensive pressure broke down opposing teams.  He could drive quickly through defenses and pass to open teammates under the basket, and he was the best baton twirler in the college ranks.

  7. Villanova had two future NBA All-Stars in Howard Porter and Chris Ford, as well as Fran O’Hanlon, who played in the ABA.  It was Ford that tripped Lanier in the Eastern Regional Championship Game that doomed St. Bonaventure.

  8. Notre Dame had the best offensive player in the tournament in Austin Carr.  Carr was unstoppable on offense with the way officials called fouls in 1970.  He averaged over 38 points per game, but he made history in this tournament by scoring 61 points in the opening round win over Ohio U.  He hit for more than 50 in the Sweet 16 against Kentucky.

  9. Iowa set the Big Ten record for points per game in 1970, almost averaging 100 points per night.  Among their stars was Downtown Freddie Brown, who would become one of the best 6th men in NBA history.  Before he became known as “Instant Offense” off the Seattle Supersonics’ bench, he was a dynamic starter for the Hawkeyes along with John Johnson, who averaged close to 30 ppg.

14 of the 16 teams in that tournament were what I consider strong teams according to today’s statistical standards, and 14 of this year’s 16 remaining teams fit that same description.

It’s no coincidence that of the 16 teams left, the Bracketnomics correctly picked 14 of the 16.

NOTE: The data that follows may be a little different than the original Bracketnomics’ posting at the beginning of the tournament.  Stats have been altered, especially the Strengths of Schedule (SOS) for some of the teams.

If you get to re-select your brackets at this point, ignore the original predictions and use these updated stats.  The originals predictions are still our “official bracket-picks,” but in this round, there is new and improved analytics.

NOTE 2: Do not confuse the Bracketnomics’ selections with the PiRate Ratings, which may contradict these picks in a couple of games.  The PiRate Ratings are strictly mechanical with no objective reasoning applied.  Bracketnomics are more subjective based on back-tested data usable only in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Gonzaga

56.14

17.6

31.1

73.2

12.8

16.5

15.1

Florida St.

59.85

3.7

33.0

73.5

16.2

18.0

9.1

After two rounds in this tournament, Gonzaga still owns the best criteria in the field, and nothing has changed in our beliefs that they have the best chance to run the table.  The Bulldogs only potential weakness is schedule strength, but at 56%+, it is more than adequate for a national champion.  The True Shooting % Margin combined with the R+T make The Zags the much better team here.  Florida State relies on offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers, but Gonzaga is not the team that the Seminoles can exploit enough times to come up with the win.  Gonzaga gets revenge for last year’s Sweet 16.

Prediction:  Gonzaga by 10-15 points

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Tennessee

59.50

5.3

31.1

70.5

13.9

15.8

5.5

Purdue

60.82

3.5

34.3

74.0

13.6

16.9

11.6

Purdue hasn’t been in the Elite 8 since 2000, and they have not made it to the Final Four since 1980.  The Boilermakers have historically been unable to get scoring spurts in the Gene Keady-Matt Painter years.  They played excellent half-court offense and defense defense, but their style did not allow them to be overpowering on the boards or to gamble for steals on defense.  Like Money Ball does not work in the Major League Playoffs, possession basketball doesn’t work well in the Big Dance.  Teams need to have that spurtability, which is what the R+T rating shows, and Purdue has rarely had a great R+T rating.  That was the past; this Boilermaker squad has a very good R+T rating, and it comes from both an excellent rebounding strength combined with an adequate ability to force turnovers and not cough the ball up enough times to matter.

Tennessee is more like the old Purdue teams.  The Volunteers have excellent half-court presence on both sides of the ball, but they cannot dominate on the glass, and they do not force enough turnovers.  In this game, I look for Purdue to get numerous second chance scoring opportunities, and eventually, the Boilermakers will go for the kill shot with a scoring run that gives them the victory.

Prediction: Purdue by 6 to 11 points

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Michigan

59.87

8.8

24.0

75.6

12.1

15.9

4.0

Texas Tech

58.42

10.1

28.1

71.7

16.1

20.0

4.4

 

This has the chance to be a classic game that will generate headlines for a long time.  This is the closest thing to a 50-50 tossup there can be.  If you had to choose one game to go to triple overtime, this is the one I’d pick (I just gave it the kiss of death and it will be a blowout now).

With Michigan’s 1 1/2 point SOS advantage, it basically makes all the criteria dead even.  Two teams with excellent defensive efficiency should lead to the game being decided on rebounding and turnovers.  The Red Raiders are better on the offensive glass, but the Wolverines are better on the defensive glass.  Texas Tech is considerably better forcing turnovers, but Michigan is considerably better holding onto the ball.  The R+T is dead even.  The only tiny little stat where there is a difference is TS% Margin, where even with the better SOS, Michigan comes up just a tad short, but not enough to matter more than one point on the scoreboard.

I have to go to extracurricular statistics here to select a winner in this game.  Texas Tech has been more consistent with their production, while Michigan’s standard deviation of statistics has been greater.  The Wolverines have been up for five consecutive games, while Texas Tech has been on an even keel since January.  Michigan has experience from making it to the Championship Game last year, while Texas Tech made it to the Elite 8 last year, so once again this washes.  Michigan is 7-3 against ranked teams this year.  TTU is 3-2.  Maybe, this is the only stat I can use to pick a winner, and it is still a total guess.  I’ll have my eyes glued to this game.

Prediction: Michigan by 1 to 5 points, possibly in overtime

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Virginia

59.95

12.9

29.9

74.8

13.0

15.7

10.4

Oregon

55.83

4.5

29.4

71.7

15.4

18.3

4.3

Oregon coach Dana Altman deserves a ton of credit.  If you don’t think losing a 5-star McDonald’s All-American freshman phenom when you have another one on the roster  hurts, look at what happened to Bryce Drew at Vanderbilt.  Drew lost Darius Garland early in the year but still had another 5-star freshman phenom in Simi Shittu.  Vanderbilt lost their final 20 games in a row, and Drew was dismissed.  Altman lost superstar Bol Bol early in the year, and the Ducks were counted out.  Altman rallied Oregon and won the Pac-12 Tournament.  Then, they knocked out mid-major darling UC-Irvine to make it back to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years.

Virginia survived a scare against Gardner-Webb, but the Cavaliers righted the ship and stormed back to win by 15, and then the Cavs ousted Oklahoma much more easily in the Round of 32.  On the surface, some may believe that UVA is strictly a half-court possession wonder, the type that usually disappoints in the Big Dance.  This is not so.  The Cavaliers have a double-digit R+T rating, which makes them capable of benefiting from scoring spurts, like they did in 2016, when they made it to the Elite 8 and watched a second half double-digit lead against Syracuse turn into a loss when the Orangemen went on a huge scoring run.

This game looks like the most lopsided in this round.  Virginia has the advantage across the board, and Oregon has not beaten a team this good all year.  The Ducks only played one ranked team in the regular season.  Think of Bol Bol as twice the player Tacko Fall is for Central Florida.  That’s why  Oregon should be happy they made the Sweet 16.

Prediction: Virginia by 12-17 points

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Michigan St.

61.11

14.0

33.8

74.1

16.4

12.7

12.3

LSU

58.71

3.4

36.5

69.8

15.2

17.6

9.4

The fact that four SEC teams made the Sweet 16, and LSU won the conference championship shows that the Tigers are good enough to keep playing into April, even with acting coach Tony Benford taking over for Will Wade.

On the other side, Michigan State is almost perfect when you look at the resume of a Final Four team.  The Spartans do not force turnovers like most Final Four teams in the past, and they are vulnerable to a team that can pressure them into turnovers.

LSU has the personnel to force MSU out of their normal offense and negate any potential rebounding advantage Sparty has.  This game still looks favorable to Michigan State due to a great difference in True Shooting Percentage Margin.  LSU might not get enough open looks and second chance points to match the inside scoring of Nick Ward and Xavier Tillman combined with the three-point shooting of Cassius Winston.

Prediction: Michigan State by 4 to 9 points

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

North Carolina

62.05

5.4

34.8

77.7

14.6

16.5

18.9

Auburn

59.91

1.9

32.2

67.8

14.6

21.8

2.7

 

This game should be played at a tempo of 75 possessions per team.  Auburn was the best up-tempo team in the SEC this year, but North Carolina was the best up-tempo team in the ACC.

Can Auburn force North Carolina, namely point guard Coby White to make enough mistakes to keep this game close?  White has been prone to force the issue a bit at times, but in the games against the best pressure man-to-man teams, he did not make enough mistakes to cost Carolina the win, and in several games, his deft handling of the ball was the reason the Tar Heels won.

North Carolina remains the second best team in the tournament according to Bracketnomics, and this game has the potential to get out of hand.  The Tar Heels have a huge advantage on the offensive glass, and this should be the deciding factor.  UNC will score on several consecutive possessions at some point in this game and take a commanding lead that forces Auburn to panic on offense and commit some mistakes of their own.

Prediction: North Carolina by 10-15 points

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Duke

62.61

9.8

35.5

71.0

14.7

17.0

12.1

Virginia Tech

58.20

8.5

29.0

72.9

15.3

19.1

6.1

 

Virginia Tech’s home court advantage in a game with Duke was three points and change, but let’s round it back to 3.  They beat Duke in Blacksburg by five points.  Duke didn’t have Zion Williamson.  Is Zion worth three points more for Duke than his backup?  Of course, he is; he’s worth a lot more than three extra points in Duke’s overall production.

Duke has an exploitable liability, and Central Florida exposed it.  Buzz Williams will do everything to try to force the Blue Devils to beat his squad by not being weak in their perimeter shooting.  UCF had two big guys inside that could force Duke to shoot from the perimeter.  Virginia Tech has one big guy, Kerry Blackshear, who probably cannot stop the Duke inside game.

In my opinion, there are a couple teams that can force Duke to have a better than average perimeter shooting night to beat them, but Virginia Tech is not one of them.

Prediction: Duke by 8 to 13 points

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Kentucky

60.44

9.8

36.6

74.7

15.8

16.0

16.2

Houston

55.45

8.3

34.2

74.8

14.0

15.8

14.6

This game could be very interesting in a different way than the Michigan and Texas Tech game.  You get contrasting styles in this contest, and there are many variables, some of which favor the underdog Cougars in this cat fight.

There is a giant variable here, one that is enough to take this game from a relatively safe victory for Kentucky to a toss-up.  Star forward P.J. Washington might play in this game, and he might not be healthy enough.  Even if he plays, he cannot possibly be all that effective.  What bothers me is that he went from a protective boot to a cast, which means the injury was worse than first thought.  He’s going to one of the top foot specialists in the nation, and I think the goal here is to make sure Washington is ready for the NBA Draft.

If Washington does not play in this game, it becomes one where Houston has a 40-45% chance of winning.  If Washington plays sparingly, Kentucky’s chances increase by another 5-10%.  If miraculously Washington can play near full strength for 25 minutes, then the Big Blue win this game going away.

I will select this game based on the assumption that Washington will play but at much less than full strength.  Reid Travis is ready to have a big game for Kentucky now that he is basically 100% at full strength following his injury, and I look for John Calipari to direct his team to play intelligently and take advantage of their muscle advantage.

Prediction: Kentucky but 5-10 points

 

 

 

 

 

March 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Tennessee

117.9

0.0

Iowa

111.4

6.5

North Carolina

121.3

0.0

Washington

109.7

11.6

Duke

122.9

0.0

Central Florida

110.0

12.9

Texas Tech

118.0

0.0

Buffalo

115.2

2.8

Virginia Tech

115.5

0.0

Liberty

107.3

8.2

Virginia

120.8

0.0

Oklahoma

111.4

9.4

Houston

115.3

0.0

Ohio St.

110.2

5.1

Oregon

110.8

0.0

UC Irvine

106.6

4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time

Game

Network

Site

12:10 PM

Tennessee vs. Iowa

CBS

Columbus

2:40 PM

North Carolina vs. Washington

CBS

Columbus

5:15 PM

Duke vs. Central Florida

CBS

Columbia

6:10 PM

Texas Tech vs. Buffalo

TNT

Tulsa

7:10 PM

Virginia Tech vs. Liberty

TBS

San Jose

7:45 PM

Virginia vs. Oklahoma

TruTV

Columbia

8:40 PM

Houston vs. Ohio St.

TNT

Tulsa

9:40 PM

Oregon vs. UC-Irvine

TBS

San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 22, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 22, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Cincinnati

110.8

1.5

Iowa

111.1

1.2

Ole Miss

110.3

0.0

Oklahoma

110.7

-0.4

Texas Tech

117.8

0.0

Northern Kentucky

104.5

13.3

Kansas St.

112.7

0.0

UC-Irvine

106.2

6.5

Tennessee

118.3

0.0

Colgate

102.8

15.5

Gardner-Webb

99.5

1.0

Virginia

121.1

-20.6

Buffalo

115.0

0.0

Arizona St.

107.9

7.1

Wisconsin

115.1

0.0

Oregon

109.7

5.4

Utah St.

111.3

0.0

Washington

108.8

2.5

Duke

123.1

0.0

North Dakota St.

97.9

25.2

Houston

114.8

0.0

Georgia St.

103.9

10.9

Mississippi St.

113.9

0.0

Liberty

106.7

7.2

North Carolina

121.7

0.0

Iona

97.8

23.9

Virginia Commonwealth

110.7

0.0

Central Florida

109.4

1.3

Iowa St.

114.8

0.0

Ohio St.

109.9

4.9

Virginia Tech

115.5

0.0

Saint Louis

104.1

11.4

 

Today’s Schedule

All Times EDT

TIME

MATCHUP

NETWORK

SITE

12:15 PM

(10) Iowa vs. (7) Cincinnati

CBS

Columbus 

12:40 PM

(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Ole Miss

truTV

Columbia 

1:30 PM

(14) Northern Kentucky vs. (3) Texas Tech

TNT

Tulsa 

2 PM

(13) UC Irvine vs. (4) Kansas State

TBS

San Jose 

Approx. 3 PM

(15) Colgate vs. (2) Tennessee

CBS

Columbus 

Approx. 3:25 PM

(16) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) Virginia

truTV

Columbia 

Approx. 4:15 PM

(11) St. John’s / Arizona State vs. (6) Buffalo

TNT

Tulsa 

Approx. 4:45 PM

(12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin

TBS

San Jose 

6:50 PM

(9) Washington vs. (8) Utah State

TNT

Columbus 

7:10 PM

(16) NC Central / North Dakota St. vs. (1) Duke

CBS

Columbia 

7:20 PM

(14) Georgia State vs. (3) Houston

TBS

Tulsa 

7:27 PM

(12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State

truTV

San Jose 

Approx. 9:35 PM

(16) Iona vs. (1) North Carolina

TNT

Columbus 

Approx. 9:55 PM

(9) UCF vs. (8) VCU

CBS

Columbia 

Approx. 10:05 PM

(11) Ohio State vs. (6) Iowa State

TBS

Tulsa

Approx. 10:12 PM

(13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech

truTV

San Jose 

 

 

 

March 17, 2019

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology For 2019

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Duke

Virginia

Gonzaga

North Carolina

2

Michigan St.

Tennessee

Michigan

Kentucky

3

Houston

Florida St.

Texas Tech

LSU

4

Purdue

Kansas St.

Wisconsin

Kansas

5

Auburn

Villanova

Virginia Tech

Iowa St.

6

Buffalo

Mississippi St.

Cincinnati

Marquette

7

Wofford

Maryland

Louisville

Nevada

8

Iowa

Seton Hall

Minnesota

Central Florida

9

Ole Miss

Syracuse

Baylor

Washington

10

Virginia Commonwealth

Utah St.

Florida

Oklahoma

11

Oregon

Ohio St.

Temple/Arizona St.

St. John’s/TCU

12

Saint Mary’s

Murray St.

New Mexico St.

Vermont

13

Liberty

UC-Irvine

Old Dominion

Montana

14

Saint Louis

Northeastern

Northern Kentucky

Georgia St.

15

Yale

Bradley

Colgate

Abilene Christian

16

Gardner-Webb

Prairie View A&M

Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson

N. Dakota St./UNC Central

 

Last Four Byes

Virginia Commonwealth

Florida

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

 

Last Four In

Temple

St. John’s

TCU

Arizona St.

 

First Four Out

North Carolina St.

Belmont

UNC Greensboro

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Indiana

Alabama

Clemson

Texas

 

Bids By Conference

Conference

Bids

Big Ten

8

ACC

7

SEC

7

Big 12

7

Big East

4

AAC

4

Pac-12

3

MWC

2

West Coast

2

Atlantic 10

2

One-Bid Leagues

22

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