PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 25, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Auburn	Ole Miss	9.3
Ball St.	Western Michigan	11.0
Baylor	Kansas St.	16.0
Bowling Green	Akron	-3.3
Central Michigan	Toledo	0.6
Davidson	La Salle	10.8
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	2.6
George Mason	Dayton	-12.9
Georgia Tech	Clemson	3.0
Iowa St.	TCU	4.5
Kent St.	Miami (O)	10.2
Loyola (Chi.)	Drake	7.9
Michigan St.	Iowa	7.2
Mississippi St.	Alabama	2.0
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	-0.6
Ohio	Buffalo	-0.6
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	-1.2
San Diego St.	Colorado St.	14.6
SMU	Memphis	0.5
Texas A&M	Kentucky	-7.4
Tulsa	Tulane	10.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	21.8
Valparaiso	Missouri St.	1.8
Wake Forest	Duke	-12.6
Wyoming	Nevada	-10.8
Xavier	DePaul	7.3

 

Key TV Games On Tuesday 

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Texas A&M	Kentucky
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Michigan St.	Iowa
7:00 PM	ESPN+	Bowling Green	Akron
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Oklahoma	Texas Tech
9:00 PM	CBSSN	SMU	Memphis
9:00 PM	SECN	Mississippi St.	Alabama

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 11, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Akron	Bowling Green	9.0
Ball St.	Northern Illinois	6.8
Boise St.	Air Force	11.4
Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	5.4
Colorado St.	Utah St.	-2.0
Davidson	Fordham	14.5
Dayton	Rhode Island	9.6
Illinois	Michigan St.	-1.7
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.	2.3
LSU	Missouri	10.7
Maryland	Nebraska	17.3
Ohio	Western Michigan	5.7
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	-1.8
Purdue	Penn St.	3.0
Saint Joseph’s	St. Bonaventure	-6.9
San Diego St.	New Mexico	16.7
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	3.1
Tennessee	Arkansas	-0.3
Toledo	Miami (O)	10.2
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-9.8
Virginia	Notre Dame	3.3
Wake Forest	North Carolina	0.3

 

The Captain’s Table

 

Top Games on TV Tuesday

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
6:30 PM	BTN	Purdue	Penn St.
7:00 PM	ESPN+	Akron	Bowling Green
7:00 PM	SECN	Tennessee	Arkansas
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Syracuse	North Carolina St.
7:30 PM	CBSSN	Dayton	Rhode Island
9:00 PM	ESPN	Illinois	Michigan St.
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Virginia	Notre Dame
9:30 PM	CBSSN	Colorado St.	Utah St.

 

Captain’s Musings

 

Where the NCAA Selection Committee Gets It Wrong

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee has issued its first preliminary seeding of top 16 teams, and we at the PiRate Ratings are happy to say we predicted all 16 teams on the correct seed line.  Predicting seed lines and teams accepted to the Big Dance isn’t all that difficult, because the NCAA clearly shows its cards.  With the exception of Team 68 and occasionally Team 67, determining in advance which 68 teams receive Dance Invitations is almost as exact as multiplication and division.

Usually, when our Bracketology, or our friends on the Internet that supply their own Bracketology, are finalized on Selection Sunday, the only differences in the brackets come on the lower seed lines.  Many times, predictions for a seed line were accurate, but the Committee had to move a team up or down one seed in order to obey the NCAA’s rules about facing an opponent from the same conference in the opening rounds.

Basically, the process is done correctly every time, and when Team number 69 is left out, no matter who that team is, the folks at CBS and ESPN immediately cross-examine the Committee Chairman as if a major slight has taken place.  That is done strictly to get the public to keep watching their Selection Sunday special show, because face it, the public could just as easily wait 30 minutes and quickly see the entire field in the bracket on their computer or phone.

We have no issues with the Selection Committee every year.  They do a great job, and it isn’t easy to get a dozen highly opinionated people to agree on whether Teams 67, 68, 69, and 70 deserve to be in or left out.  The consensus usually is right.

Our problem hangs entirely on the process itself, and we have one major complaint that we believe needs to move high up on the priority line.  That statistic is where a team finishes in its own conference.

Why continue to even have conference play if a team that finishes in third place sweeps the 7th place team and then watches the 7th place team get an NCAA bid, while they have to go to the NIT.  Do you think this doesn’t happen?  Unfortunately, this, or something similar, happens almost every year.

Take a look at South Carolina last year.  The Gamecocks handily beat Florida in Gainesville, and they wiped Ole Miss off the floor.  They split with Mississippi St.  All told, USC finished a game ahead of the two Magnolia State teams and two games ahead of Florida.  Yet, they were the team left out of the NCAA Tournament, while the three teams below them in the standings all went to the Big Dance.

What good is having a conference race at all, if it means absolutely nothing, other than that the regular season champion is guaranteed a spot in the NIT if it fails to make the NCAA Tournament?

If we were named the Commissioner of College Basketball, there would be changes made.  First, we would flip the rules on automatic NCAA Tournament bids.  We’d award an automatic NCAA Tournament bid to the regular season champion of each conference and then guarantee an NIT bid to all Conference Tournament winners that did not receive an NCAA Tournament bid.

Let’s look at a possibility that would make this rule show how much better the tournament might be flipping the automatic bids.  Look at this year’s Southland Conference.  Stephen F. Austin is talented enough and well-coached enough to challenge for a Sweet 16 appearance if not more.  The Lumberjacks won at Duke in one of those games where the zebras tried their hardest to give the big team the win.  SFA players were whistled for fouls just for occupying the same city block in Durham, while Duke players had to commit felonious assault before they were whistled for fouls.  Still, SFA won the game, and had this game been played with totally unbiased officials, the Lumberjacks would have actually blown Duke off the Cameron Indoor Stadium floor.

SFA (12-1/21-3) is three games ahead of its nearest conference foe.  They are likely to enter the Southland Conference Tournament at 28-3 and no worse than 27-4.  And, for this incredible run, the Lumberjacks will be guaranteed only an NIT bid.  They will have to win the SLC Tournament to get into the Field of 68.  What if a team like Nicholls State catches SFA on a cold shooting day and upsets the Lumberjacks?  Nicholls will go bye bye in the opening game, while SFA will probably be forced to play a road NIT game and receive the same type of home-cooking officiating that they faced in Durham.

Under our system, The Lumberjacks would still go to the NCAA Tournament, while Nicholls State would be guaranteed that NIT bid or be allowed to accept the CIT bid if they preferred.  The Colonels might finish four games in back of SFA, and after a 20-game conference schedule, when one team finishes 19-1 in the league and the second best team goes 15-5, it is quite clear which team is better and more deserving of the NCAA bid.

The same holds true in the Power Conferences.  Let’s look at the crazy Big Ten race this year.  Currently, three teams, Ohio State, Indiana, and Michigan, are tied for 12th place at 5-7 in the conference.  Minnesota is a half-game ahead of the trio at 6-7.  However, if you look at the criteria used by the NCAA Selection Committee, Minnesota is barely on the bad side of the Bubble and looking at the NIT, while the other three teams are in the Field.  The Big Ten plays a 20-game conference schedule, so if any number of these four teams get in the Field, the preference should be to take the team(s) that finish higher in the standings.  20 games are enough to determine which teams are better than which teams.  Using advanced metrics is great, and we are devoted Sabermetric devotees, but we realize that actual results trump theoretical results.

 

The 2020 R+T Rating Revision

Recently, we were asked to explain how our power ratings are computed, and we gave a detailed explanation of how we rely on the “Four Factors” of basketball and then apply weightings to each of the four offensive and four defensive factors and then adjust the data based on strength of schedule and a constant (that changes a little every year).  What we basically end up with is something similar to baseball’s weighted on-base average and WAR, where instead of estimating how many wins the players on a baseball team are worth, we estimate how many points better or worse than average each team is worth.

In that explanation, we relied heavily on something that has been obvious in Major League Baseball through the “Moneyball” years.  As Oakland Athletics’ General Manager Billy Beane has so succinctly said in the past, “My stuff doesn’t work in the playoffs.”  He didn’t use the word “stuff” but the PiRates refrain from using foul language.

What Beane said was proven to be correct over and over again.  The analytics that show a team how to win 90+ games don’t apply to winning in the playoffs, and there is a reason for this.  Let’s use last year’s Tampa Bay Rays as an example.

The Rays finished 96-66 and made the playoffs.  Tampa Bay played Baltimore and Toronto 19 times each.  They played Kansas City and the LA Angels seven times and Detroit and Seattle six times.   Even against good teams like the Yankees, Twins, Indians, Astros, and Athletics, they faced those teams’ number four and number five starting pitchers between one third and 40% of the time.

In the playoffs, the Yankees are not going to use their number four and number five pitchers, except in mop up duty.  In a seven game series, they might send their number one ace out there to start games 1, 4, and 7, if he can pitch on three days rest.

Moneyball statistics and all the evolved improved statistics are meant to be used over the course of an entire season’s worth of games.  After 100 games played, the strategies of going for big innings and limiting strategies like sacrifice bunting, hit and run, stolen bases, and hitting to the right side of the infield prove to be less efficient and successful in scoring runs on the whole and even winning games.  Small ball doesn’t work when almost every team now plays in a “band box” ballpark.

However, in the playoffs, when a team is facing the opposing ace or number two pitcher, and when they face the top relievers earlier in the games at the highest leverage, attempting to draw walks and hit three-run homers isn’t going to pop those cheap champagne bottles in the clubhouse.  When Justin Verlander takes the bump in October, you beat him by scratching out a couple runs here and there and hoping your pitching staff can hold the Astros in check for a 3-2 or 2-1 victory.  If you expect to put a crooked number on the scoreboard in the 6 or 7 innings he’s on the hill, you stand a big chance of putting up a run of goose eggs.

The same theory holds true in college basketball.  Over the course of a season, shooting the ball and preventing the other team from shooting the ball is going to determine the winner more times than not.  A team that can get to the foul line and hit 75% of their foul shots to win might go 13-5 in their conference and 24-7 overall.  They might get a fat #4 seed and then promptly lose to the #13 seed from a Mid-Major conference.  And, when you look at that Mid-Major team, they weren’t great shooters, but they could clean the glass better than Windex.

At tournament time, unless your team is playing a 20-loss patsy that got hot and won their post-season tournament, or your team has a number one seed and faces a 16-seed that is far outclassed, your team better be able to rebound the ball and avoid turnovers.

Thus, through the years of the 64 to 68-team NCAA Tournaments, basketball’s “Moneyball” system of trying to win the shooting wars for six or seven games just doesn’t work like it does in the regular season, when a team might win four out of every five games all year to record a 28-7 record.  The only record that matters after the Ides of March is 6-0 or 7-0.

How does a team go 6-0 or 7-0 in the NCAA Tournament?  In almost every case, said team is incredibly proficient in getting extra scoring opportunities.  How does a team get extra scoring opportunities?  They grab more rebounds on the offensive end and prevent the other team from doing the same. They force more turnovers on the opponent than they commit, and they capitalize on steals for easier scoring opportunities.  A steal is much more valuable than any other turnover, because more points per possession are scored following a steal than any other situation.

Thus, for many years, we tried to simulate how many potential extra points a team might experience through superior rebounding and protecting the ball.  We created our R+T Rating and used this formula with great success to predict which teams might advance to the later rounds of the tournament, the Final Four, and the Championship.

In many of the seasons, if the top R+T Rating belonged to a Power Conference team, we made them our favorite to win all the marbles, and we were rewarded multiple times.  We even picked a couple of upset dark horses along the way like Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler to make it to the Final Four.  We even isolated on Connecticut to make a run in the year where they broke all the criteria and won the Championship from way back in the pack.

In this time of advanced statistics, we have been trying to improve upon our R+T Rating with a new calculation, one that relies of rate stats over counting stats.  Rebound and turnover margin and steals per game have done well for us for two decades, but we realize there is a difference between rebounding margins.  If a team wins the rebounding battle 33-28, they have done much better than a team that wins the rebounding battle 43-37.  The R+T shows that the 43-37 result is better than the 33-28 result, but that is incorrect.  The 33-28 team retrieved better than 54% of the missed shots, while the 43-37 team only retrieved 53.8%.  Additionally, because offensive rebounding is so much more difficult than defensive rebounding, we really cannot tell which team did a better job.  What if the team that had 37 rebounds from among the four listed above happened to shoot a very low percentage in their game against the team that had 43 rebounds?  What if from the 80 rebounding opportunities in their game, 48 were at their offensive end of the floor and just 32 were at their defensive end of the floor?  What if this team had 14 offensive rebounds on the 48 rebounding opportunities at their offensive end and 23 rebounds from the 32.  By using the Rebounding Rate of the Four Factors, the team that lost the rebounding battle 43-37 actually performed a little better than the team that got the 43 rebounds by the count of 29.2% to 28.1%.

Thus, we are working on a new R+T Rate.  We have been trying to work out a linear regression line with six variables and a constant, and our friends, that is really hard to do, since it involves changing weights and constants over and over until the results are tighter and tighter to the line.  After a couple months, the line is getting there.  We have settled on the handicapping of each component of the stat and only have to deal with a constant that gives us the best back-tested accuracy.  We hope to debut the new R+T Rate just before the NCAA Tournament commences in Dayton.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 7, 2020

Friday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Brown	Dartmouth	3.1
Buffalo	Central Michigan	4.3
Columbia	Pennsylvania	-4.6
Cornell	Princeton	-3.2
Illinois	Maryland	0.4
Manhattan	Niagara	6.2
Marist	Saint Peter’s	-3.7
Northern Illinois	Kent St.	-1.0
Quinnipiac	Iona	6.6
Rider	Canisius	6.7
Siena	Fairfield	7.2
Troy	South Alabama	-3.2
VCU	Davidson	7.8
Yale	Harvard	7.4

 

Friday’s Top TV Games

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
5:00 PM	ESPNU	Yale	Harvard
7:00 PM	CBSSN	Northern Illinois	Kent St.
7:00 PM	ESPN2	VCU	Davidson
8:00 PM	FS1	Illinois	Maryland
9:00 PM	ESPNU	Buffalo	Central Michigan

 

Friday’s PiRate Ratings

 

#	Team	PiRate	Conference
1	Duke	121.1	Atlantic Coast
2	Kansas	121.0	Big 12
3	Gonzaga	119.5	West Coast
4	Michigan St.	118.0	Big Ten
5	Baylor	117.8	Big 12
6	West Virginia	117.4	Big 12
7	Dayton	116.9	Atlantic 10
8	Louisville	116.8	Atlantic Coast
9	Arizona	116.7	Pac-12
10	San Diego St.	116.2	Mountain West
11	Maryland	115.9	Big Ten
12	Ohio St.	115.6	Big Ten
13	Seton Hall	114.7	Big East
14	Penn St.	114.6	Big Ten
15	Florida St.	114.1	Atlantic Coast
16	BYU	113.8	West Coast
17	Butler	113.5	Big East
18	Texas Tech	113.5	Big 12
19	Purdue	113.5	Big Ten
20	Oregon	113.4	Pac-12
21	Iowa	113.4	Big Ten
22	Colorado	113.3	Pac-12
23	Villanova	113.3	Big East
24	Auburn	113.0	Southeastern
25	Kentucky	112.9	Southeastern
26	Marquette	112.9	Big East
27	Michigan	112.8	Big Ten
28	Illinois	112.8	Big Ten
29	Creighton	112.5	Big East
30	Houston	112.4	American Athletic
31	Arkansas	112.4	Southeastern
32	Rutgers	112.4	Big Ten
33	LSU	112.1	Southeastern
34	Minnesota	111.9	Big Ten
35	Florida	111.5	Southeastern
36	Indiana	111.3	Big Ten
37	Wisconsin	111.3	Big Ten
38	Mississippi St.	111.2	Southeastern
39	Saint Mary’s	111.1	West Coast
40	Cincinnati	111.0	American Athletic
41	Wichita St.	110.9	American Athletic
42	VCU	110.7	Atlantic 10
43	Alabama	110.7	Southeastern
44	Utah St.	110.6	Mountain West
45	Memphis	110.1	American Athletic
46	Stanford	110.0	Pac-12
47	Oklahoma	110.0	Big 12
48	Xavier	110.0	Big East
49	Northern Iowa	109.7	Missouri Valley
50	Washington	109.7	Pac-12
51	Rhode Island	109.5	Atlantic 10
52	Georgetown	109.5	Big East
53	Notre Dame	109.3	Atlantic Coast
54	Virginia	109.3	Atlantic Coast
55	Syracuse	109.2	Atlantic Coast
56	Yale	109.0	Ivy
57	Providence	109.0	Big East
58	North Carolina St.	109.0	Atlantic Coast
59	Arizona St.	109.0	Pac-12
60	Tennessee	108.7	Southeastern
61	East Tennessee St.	108.7	Southern
62	USC	108.6	Pac-12
63	Texas	108.1	Big 12
64	Iowa St.	108.1	Big 12
65	Connecticut	108.0	American Athletic
66	Richmond	107.9	Atlantic 10
67	Georgia Tech	107.7	Atlantic Coast
68	Oklahoma St.	107.5	Big 12
69	Vermont	107.5	America East
70	North Carolina	107.4	Atlantic Coast
71	St. John’s	107.4	Big East
72	UNC Greensboro	107.3	Southern
73	Akron	107.3	Mid-American
74	Louisiana Tech	107.3	Conference USA
75	TCU	107.2	Big 12
76	SMU	107.0	American Athletic
77	DePaul	107.0	Big East
78	Furman	106.9	Southern
79	South Carolina	106.9	Southeastern
80	Pittsburgh	106.8	Atlantic Coast
81	Nevada	106.8	Mountain West
82	Kansas St.	106.8	Big 12
83	Liberty	106.7	Atlantic Sun
84	Boise St.	106.6	Mountain West
85	Georgia	106.5	Southeastern
86	Davidson	106.4	Atlantic 10
87	Virginia Tech	106.4	Atlantic Coast
88	Clemson	106.4	Atlantic Coast
89	Oregon St.	106.4	Pac-12
90	Tulsa	106.1	American Athletic
91	Duquesne	106.0	Atlantic 10
92	North Texas	105.9	Conference USA
93	San Francisco	105.7	West Coast
94	Belmont	105.7	Ohio Valley
95	Colorado St.	105.7	Mountain West
96	Loyola (Chi.)	105.0	Missouri Valley
97	Temple	105.0	American Athletic
98	Wake Forest	105.0	Atlantic Coast
99	Mississippi	104.9	Southeastern
100	New Mexico St.	104.9	Western Athletic
101	Northern Colorado	104.8	Big Sky
102	Missouri	104.8	Southeastern
103	Saint Louis	104.6	Atlantic 10
104	Harvard	104.6	Ivy
105	Western Kentucky	104.6	Conference USA
106	Ball St.	104.5	Mid-American
107	Indiana St.	104.4	Missouri Valley
108	Utah	104.4	Pac-12
109	Texas St.	104.1	Sun Belt
110	Kent St.	104.0	Mid-American
111	Georgia St.	103.9	Sun Belt
112	UCLA	103.9	Pac-12
113	UC Irvine	103.9	Big West
114	Miami (Fla.)	103.9	Atlantic Coast
115	Bradley	103.9	Missouri Valley
116	Wright St.	103.7	Horizon
117	Winthrop	103.7	Big South
118	Stephen F. Austin	103.7	Southland
119	St. Bonaventure	103.6	Atlantic 10
120	Northwestern	103.6	Big Ten
121	South Florida	103.4	American Athletic
122	Central Florida	103.4	American Athletic
123	UT Arlington	103.2	Sun Belt
124	Colgate	103.0	Patriot
125	South Dakota St.	102.9	Summit
126	Hofstra	102.9	Colonial Athletic
127	Nebraska	102.9	Big Ten
128	Charleston	102.7	Colonial Athletic
129	Washington St.	102.7	Pac-12
130	North Dakota St.	102.6	Summit
131	UNLV	102.4	Mountain West
132	Murray St.	102.4	Ohio Valley
133	Little Rock	102.4	Sun Belt
134	Northern Kentucky	102.3	Horizon
135	Wofford	102.2	Southern
136	New Mexico	102.1	Mountain West
137	Stony Brook	102.0	America East
138	Toledo	102.0	Mid-American
139	Texas A&M	101.9	Southeastern
140	Santa Clara	101.9	West Coast
141	Pacific	101.8	West Coast
142	Northeastern	101.7	Colonial Athletic
143	Penn	101.6	Ivy
144	Drake	101.3	Missouri Valley
145	Pepperdine	101.3	West Coast
146	Boston College	101.3	Atlantic Coast
147	Fresno St.	101.2	Mountain West
148	Buffalo	101.2	Mid-American
149	Oral Roberts	101.2	Summit
150	Eastern Washington	101.1	Big Sky
151	Georgia Southern	101.0	Sun Belt
152	Southern Utah	101.0	Big Sky
153	Austin Peay	100.9	Ohio Valley
154	Boston U	100.8	Patriot
155	Bowling Green	100.7	Mid-American
156	Marshall	100.7	Conference USA
157	Western Carolina	100.6	Southern
158	Southern Illinois	100.6	Missouri Valley
159	Charlotte	100.5	Conference USA
160	California	100.4	Pac-12
161	Vanderbilt	100.4	Southeastern
162	Missouri St.	100.3	Missouri Valley
163	Appalachian St.	100.1	Sun Belt
164	UC Santa Barbara	100.1	Big West
165	George Mason	100.0	Atlantic 10
166	Northern Illinois	100.0	Mid-American
167	Towson	100.0	Colonial Athletic
168	Montana	100.0	Big Sky
169	Florida Int’l.	99.9	Conference USA
170	Central Michigan	99.9	Mid-American
171	Valparaiso	99.9	Missouri Valley
172	South Alabama	99.9	Sun Belt
173	North Florida	99.8	Atlantic Sun
174	Old Dominion	99.8	Conference USA
175	South Dakota	99.8	Summit
176	Chattanooga	99.7	Southern
177	La Salle	99.6	Atlantic 10
178	Radford	99.5	Big South
179	California Baptist	99.5	Western Athletic
180	Sam Houston St.	99.5	Southland
181	Princeton	99.4	Ivy
182	UTEP	99.4	Conference USA
183	Tulane	99.1	American Athletic
184	Hawaii	99.0	Big West
185	Delaware	99.0	Colonial Athletic
186	William & Mary	98.8	Colonial Athletic
187	Lafayette	98.8	Patriot
188	Siena	98.7	Metro Atlantic
189	UAB	98.7	Conference USA
190	Rider	98.5	Metro Atlantic
191	Nicholls St.	98.4	Southland
192	Florida Atlantic	98.1	Conference USA
193	UTSA	98.1	Conference USA
194	Air Force	98.1	Mountain West
195	Massachusetts	98.0	Atlantic 10
196	Portland St.	97.9	Big Sky
197	Coastal Carolina	97.8	Sun Belt
198	St. Francis (PA)	97.8	Northeast
199	Sacred Heart	97.7	Northeast
200	Northern Arizona	97.6	Big Sky
201	Prairie View A&M	97.5	Southwestern Athl.
202	Ohio	97.5	Mid-American
203	Montana St.	97.4	Big Sky
204	Abilene Christian	97.4	Southland
205	Loyola Marymount	97.3	West Coast
206	Monmouth	97.2	Metro Atlantic
207	Arkansas St.	97.1	Sun Belt
208	George Washington	97.1	Atlantic 10
209	Omaha	97.1	Summit
210	Brown	97.0	Ivy
211	Eastern Michigan	96.9	Mid-American
212	Seattle	96.9	Western Athletic
213	Dartmouth	96.9	Ivy
214	UC Riverside	96.9	Big West
215	Rice	96.8	Conference USA
216	Sacramento St.	96.7	Big Sky
217	San Diego	96.6	West Coast
218	Saint Peter’s	96.6	Metro Atlantic
219	American	96.6	Patriot
220	Mercer	96.4	Southern
221	North Dakota	96.3	Summit
222	Green Bay	96.3	Horizon
223	Drexel	96.3	Colonial Athletic
224	Illinois St.	96.1	Missouri Valley
225	Robert Morris	96.1	Northeast
226	Cal St. Bakersfield	96.1	Western Athletic
227	East Carolina	96.0	American Athletic
228	Eastern Illinois	96.0	Ohio Valley
229	Oakland	96.0	Horizon
230	Miami (O)	95.9	Mid-American
231	Bryant	95.9	Northeast
232	Louisiana	95.9	Sun Belt
233	Merrimack	95.8	Northeast
234	Albany	95.8	America East
235	UC Davis	95.8	Big West
236	Tennessee St.	95.7	Ohio Valley
237	Missouri-KC	95.6	Western Athletic
238	Navy	95.6	Patriot
239	McNeese St.	95.6	Southland
240	Western Michigan	95.5	Mid-American
241	Quinnipiac	95.4	Metro Atlantic
242	UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3	Western Athletic
243	Youngstown St.	95.3	Horizon
244	Grand Canyon	95.2	Western Athletic
245	Manhattan	95.1	Metro Atlantic
246	Milwaukee	95.1	Horizon
247	Bucknell	95.1	Patriot
248	Illinois Chicago	95.0	Horizon
249	Cal St. Northridge	94.9	Big West
250	Jacksonville	94.9	Atlantic Sun
251	Long Island	94.9	Northeast
252	Canisius	94.8	Metro Atlantic
253	Fordham	94.6	Atlantic 10
254	Weber St.	94.5	Big Sky
255	Fairfield	94.5	Metro Atlantic
256	Norfolk St.	94.4	Mideastern Athletic
257	Lamar	94.4	Southland
258	Saint Joseph’s	94.4	Atlantic 10
259	Cal St. Fullerton	94.3	Big West
260	Jacksonville St.	94.3	Ohio Valley
261	Gardner-Webb	94.3	Big South
262	Mount St. Mary’s	94.2	Northeast
263	Southern Miss.	94.2	Conference USA
264	Columbia	94.0	Ivy
265	Lipscomb	94.0	Atlantic Sun
266	Texas Southern	94.0	Southwestern Athl.
267	Utah Valley	93.9	Western Athletic
268	Troy	93.7	Sun Belt
269	Hartford	93.7	America East
270	New Hampshire	93.7	America East
271	VMI	93.6	Southern
272	Middle Tennessee	93.5	Conference USA
273	Purdue Fort Wayne	93.5	Summit
274	Army	93.5	Patriot
275	North Alabama	93.3	Atlantic Sun
276	Louisiana Monroe	93.2	Sun Belt
277	Cornell	93.2	Ivy
278	Loyola (MD)	93.2	Patriot
279	UMass Lowell	93.2	America East
280	Wyoming	93.2	Mountain West
281	Evansville	93.2	Missouri Valley
282	North Carolina Central	93.1	Mideastern Athletic
283	Portland	93.1	West Coast
284	NJIT	93.0	Atlantic Sun
285	Detroit	92.9	Horizon
286	James Madison	92.6	Colonial Athletic
287	Campbell	92.6	Big South
288	Texas A&M CC	92.5	Southland
289	UNC Asheville	92.5	Big South
290	Idaho St.	92.4	Big Sky
291	North Carolina A&T	92.4	Mideastern Athletic
292	UM Baltimore Co.	92.3	America East
293	Bethune Cookman	92.2	Mideastern Athletic
294	Samford	92.1	Southern
295	Stetson	92.0	Atlantic Sun
296	Morehead St.	92.0	Ohio Valley
297	Charleston Southern	91.9	Big South
298	Central Arkansas	91.9	Southland
299	Eastern Kentucky	91.9	Ohio Valley
300	Niagara	91.9	Metro Atlantic
301	San Jose St.	91.8	Mountain West
302	Iona	91.8	Metro Atlantic
303	Alcorn St.	91.7	Southwestern Athl.
304	Fairleigh Dickinson	91.4	Northeast
305	St. Francis (NY)	91.4	Northeast
306	Elon	91.4	Colonial Athletic
307	Southern	91.3	Southwestern Athl.
308	Idaho	91.2	Big Sky
309	Cleveland St.	91.0	Horizon
310	Denver	90.9	Summit
311	Grambling	90.7	Southwestern Athl.
312	Long Beach St.	90.7	Big West
313	Florida Gulf Coast	90.6	Atlantic Sun
314	Cal Poly	90.6	Big West
315	Lehigh	90.6	Patriot
316	UT-Martin	90.5	Ohio Valley
317	Citadel	90.5	Southern
318	USC Upstate	90.5	Big South
319	UNC Wilmington	90.4	Colonial Athletic
320	New Orleans	90.4	Southland
321	Florida A&M	90.4	Mideastern Athletic
322	Longwood	90.3	Big South
323	Morgan St.	90.3	Mideastern Athletic
324	Northwestern St.	90.1	Southland
325	Jackson St.	89.9	Southwestern Athl.
326	Hampton	89.9	Big South
327	Marist	89.9	Metro Atlantic
328	Western Illinois	89.1	Summit
329	Wagner	88.9	Northeast
330	IUPUI	88.8	Horizon
331	Maine	88.5	America East
332	Coppin St.	88.4	Mideastern Athletic
333	Alabama St.	88.4	Southwestern Athl.
334	Presbyterian	88.4	Big South
335	South Carolina St.	88.1	Mideastern Athletic
336	SE Missouri	88.1	Ohio Valley
337	Binghamton	88.1	America East
338	Tennessee Tech	87.4	Ohio Valley
339	SE Louisiana	86.9	Southland
340	SIU Edwardsville	86.8	Ohio Valley
341	Holy Cross	86.4	Patriot
342	High Point	86.2	Big South
343	Alabama A&M	86.2	Southwestern Athl.
344	Houston Baptist	85.3	Southland
345	Incarnate Word	83.7	Southland
346	Arkansas Pine Bluff	83.5	Southwestern Athl.
347	Central Connecticut	81.6	Northeast
348	Howard	81.6	Mideastern Athletic
349	MD Eastern Shore	81.0	Mideastern Athletic
350	Kennesaw St.	80.8	Atlantic Sun
351	Delaware St.	80.6	Mideastern Athletic
352	Mississippi Valley St.	77.0	Southwestern Athl.
353	Chicago St.	76.7	Western Athletic

 

Alphabetical

 

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Abilene Christian	97.4	Southland
Air Force	98.1	Mountain West
Akron	107.3	Mid-American
Alabama	110.7	Southeastern
Alabama A&M	86.2	Southwestern Athl.
Alabama St.	88.4	Southwestern Athl.
Albany	95.8	America East
Alcorn St.	91.7	Southwestern Athl.
American	96.6	Patriot
Appalachian St.	100.1	Sun Belt
Arizona	116.7	Pac-12
Arizona St.	109.0	Pac-12
Arkansas	112.4	Southeastern
Arkansas Pine Bluff	83.5	Southwestern Athl.
Arkansas St.	97.1	Sun Belt
Army	93.5	Patriot
Auburn	113.0	Southeastern
Austin Peay	100.9	Ohio Valley
Ball St.	104.5	Mid-American
Baylor	117.8	Big 12
Belmont	105.7	Ohio Valley
Bethune Cookman	92.2	Mideastern Athletic
Binghamton	88.1	America East
Boise St.	106.6	Mountain West
Boston College	101.3	Atlantic Coast
Boston U	100.8	Patriot
Bowling Green	100.7	Mid-American
Bradley	103.9	Missouri Valley
Brown	97.0	Ivy
Bryant	95.9	Northeast
Bucknell	95.1	Patriot
Buffalo	101.2	Mid-American
Butler	113.5	Big East
BYU	113.8	West Coast
Cal Poly	90.6	Big West
Cal St. Bakersfield	96.1	Western Athletic
Cal St. Fullerton	94.3	Big West
Cal St. Northridge	94.9	Big West
California	100.4	Pac-12
California Baptist	99.5	Western Athletic
Campbell	92.6	Big South
Canisius	94.8	Metro Atlantic
Central Arkansas	91.9	Southland
Central Connecticut	81.6	Northeast
Central Florida	103.4	American Athletic
Central Michigan	99.9	Mid-American
Charleston	102.7	Colonial Athletic
Charleston Southern	91.9	Big South
Charlotte	100.5	Conference USA
Chattanooga	99.7	Southern
Chicago St.	76.7	Western Athletic
Cincinnati	111.0	American Athletic
Citadel	90.5	Southern
Clemson	106.4	Atlantic Coast
Cleveland St.	91.0	Horizon
Coastal Carolina	97.8	Sun Belt
Colgate	103.0	Patriot
Colorado	113.3	Pac-12
Colorado St.	105.7	Mountain West
Columbia	94.0	Ivy
Connecticut	108.0	American Athletic
Coppin St.	88.4	Mideastern Athletic
Cornell	93.2	Ivy
Creighton	112.5	Big East
Dartmouth	96.9	Ivy
Davidson	106.4	Atlantic 10
Dayton	116.9	Atlantic 10
Delaware	99.0	Colonial Athletic
Delaware St.	80.6	Mideastern Athletic
Denver	90.9	Summit
DePaul	107.0	Big East
Detroit	92.9	Horizon
Drake	101.3	Missouri Valley
Drexel	96.3	Colonial Athletic
Duke	121.1	Atlantic Coast
Duquesne	106.0	Atlantic 10
East Carolina	96.0	American Athletic
East Tennessee St.	108.7	Southern
Eastern Illinois	96.0	Ohio Valley
Eastern Kentucky	91.9	Ohio Valley
Eastern Michigan	96.9	Mid-American
Eastern Washington	101.1	Big Sky
Elon	91.4	Colonial Athletic
Evansville	93.2	Missouri Valley
Fairfield	94.5	Metro Atlantic
Fairleigh Dickinson	91.4	Northeast
Florida	111.5	Southeastern
Florida A&M	90.4	Mideastern Athletic
Florida Atlantic	98.1	Conference USA
Florida Gulf Coast	90.6	Atlantic Sun
Florida Int’l.	99.9	Conference USA
Florida St.	114.1	Atlantic Coast
Fordham	94.6	Atlantic 10
Fresno St.	101.2	Mountain West
Furman	106.9	Southern
Gardner-Webb	94.3	Big South
George Mason	100.0	Atlantic 10
George Washington	97.1	Atlantic 10
Georgetown	109.5	Big East
Georgia	106.5	Southeastern
Georgia Southern	101.0	Sun Belt
Georgia St.	103.9	Sun Belt
Georgia Tech	107.7	Atlantic Coast
Gonzaga	119.5	West Coast
Grambling	90.7	Southwestern Athl.
Grand Canyon	95.2	Western Athletic
Green Bay	96.3	Horizon
Hampton	89.9	Big South
Hartford	93.7	America East
Harvard	104.6	Ivy
Hawaii	99.0	Big West
High Point	86.2	Big South
Hofstra	102.9	Colonial Athletic
Holy Cross	86.4	Patriot
Houston	112.4	American Athletic
Houston Baptist	85.3	Southland
Howard	81.6	Mideastern Athletic
Idaho	91.2	Big Sky
Idaho St.	92.4	Big Sky
Illinois	112.8	Big Ten
Illinois Chicago	95.0	Horizon
Illinois St.	96.1	Missouri Valley
Incarnate Word	83.7	Southland
Indiana	111.3	Big Ten
Indiana St.	104.4	Missouri Valley
Iona	91.8	Metro Atlantic
Iowa	113.4	Big Ten
Iowa St.	108.1	Big 12
IUPUI	88.8	Horizon
Jackson St.	89.9	Southwestern Athl.
Jacksonville	94.9	Atlantic Sun
Jacksonville St.	94.3	Ohio Valley
James Madison	92.6	Colonial Athletic
Kansas	121.0	Big 12
Kansas St.	106.8	Big 12
Kennesaw St.	80.8	Atlantic Sun
Kent St.	104.0	Mid-American
Kentucky	112.9	Southeastern
La Salle	99.6	Atlantic 10
Lafayette	98.8	Patriot
Lamar	94.4	Southland
Lehigh	90.6	Patriot
Liberty	106.7	Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb	94.0	Atlantic Sun
Little Rock	102.4	Sun Belt
Long Beach St.	90.7	Big West
Long Island	94.9	Northeast
Longwood	90.3	Big South
Louisiana	95.9	Sun Belt
Louisiana Monroe	93.2	Sun Belt
Louisiana Tech	107.3	Conference USA
Louisville	116.8	Atlantic Coast
Loyola (Chi.)	105.0	Missouri Valley
Loyola Marymount	97.3	West Coast
Loyola (MD)	93.2	Patriot
LSU	112.1	Southeastern
Maine	88.5	America East
Manhattan	95.1	Metro Atlantic
Marist	89.9	Metro Atlantic
Marquette	112.9	Big East
Marshall	100.7	Conference USA
Maryland	115.9	Big Ten
Massachusetts	98.0	Atlantic 10
McNeese St.	95.6	Southland
MD Eastern Shore	81.0	Mideastern Athletic
Memphis	110.1	American Athletic
Mercer	96.4	Southern
Merrimack	95.8	Northeast
Miami (Fla.)	103.9	Atlantic Coast
Miami (O)	95.9	Mid-American
Michigan	112.8	Big Ten
Michigan St.	118.0	Big Ten
Middle Tennessee	93.5	Conference USA
Milwaukee	95.1	Horizon
Minnesota	111.9	Big Ten
Mississippi	104.9	Southeastern
Mississippi St.	111.2	Southeastern
Mississippi Valley St.	77.0	Southwestern Athl.
Missouri	104.8	Southeastern
Missouri-KC	95.6	Western Athletic
Missouri St.	100.3	Missouri Valley
Monmouth	97.2	Metro Atlantic
Montana	100.0	Big Sky
Montana St.	97.4	Big Sky
Morehead St.	92.0	Ohio Valley
Morgan St.	90.3	Mideastern Athletic
Mount St. Mary’s	94.2	Northeast
Murray St.	102.4	Ohio Valley
Navy	95.6	Patriot
Nebraska	102.9	Big Ten
Nevada	106.8	Mountain West
New Hampshire	93.7	America East
New Mexico	102.1	Mountain West
New Mexico St.	104.9	Western Athletic
New Orleans	90.4	Southland
Niagara	91.9	Metro Atlantic
Nicholls St.	98.4	Southland
NJIT	93.0	Atlantic Sun
Norfolk St.	94.4	Mideastern Athletic
North Alabama	93.3	Atlantic Sun
North Carolina	107.4	Atlantic Coast
North Carolina A&T	92.4	Mideastern Athletic
North Carolina Central	93.1	Mideastern Athletic
North Carolina St.	109.0	Atlantic Coast
North Dakota	96.3	Summit
North Dakota St.	102.6	Summit
North Florida	99.8	Atlantic Sun
North Texas	105.9	Conference USA
Northeastern	101.7	Colonial Athletic
Northern Arizona	97.6	Big Sky
Northern Colorado	104.8	Big Sky
Northern Illinois	100.0	Mid-American
Northern Iowa	109.7	Missouri Valley
Northern Kentucky	102.3	Horizon
Northwestern	103.6	Big Ten
Northwestern St.	90.1	Southland
Notre Dame	109.3	Atlantic Coast
Oakland	96.0	Horizon
Ohio	97.5	Mid-American
Ohio St.	115.6	Big Ten
Oklahoma	110.0	Big 12
Oklahoma St.	107.5	Big 12
Old Dominion	99.8	Conference USA
Omaha	97.1	Summit
Oral Roberts	101.2	Summit
Oregon	113.4	Pac-12
Oregon St.	106.4	Pac-12
Pacific	101.8	West Coast
Penn	101.6	Ivy
Penn St.	114.6	Big Ten
Pepperdine	101.3	West Coast
Pittsburgh	106.8	Atlantic Coast
Portland	93.1	West Coast
Portland St.	97.9	Big Sky
Prairie View A&M	97.5	Southwestern Athl.
Presbyterian	88.4	Big South
Princeton	99.4	Ivy
Providence	109.0	Big East
Purdue	113.5	Big Ten
Purdue Fort Wayne	93.5	Summit
Quinnipiac	95.4	Metro Atlantic
Radford	99.5	Big South
Rhode Island	109.5	Atlantic 10
Rice	96.8	Conference USA
Richmond	107.9	Atlantic 10
Rider	98.5	Metro Atlantic
Robert Morris	96.1	Northeast
Rutgers	112.4	Big Ten
Sacramento St.	96.7	Big Sky
Sacred Heart	97.7	Northeast
Saint Joseph’s	94.4	Atlantic 10
Saint Louis	104.6	Atlantic 10
Saint Mary’s	111.1	West Coast
Saint Peter’s	96.6	Metro Atlantic
Sam Houston St.	99.5	Southland
Samford	92.1	Southern
San Diego	96.6	West Coast
San Diego St.	116.2	Mountain West
San Francisco	105.7	West Coast
San Jose St.	91.8	Mountain West
Santa Clara	101.9	West Coast
SE Louisiana	86.9	Southland
SE Missouri	88.1	Ohio Valley
Seattle	96.9	Western Athletic
Seton Hall	114.7	Big East
Siena	98.7	Metro Atlantic
SIU Edwardsville	86.8	Ohio Valley
SMU	107.0	American Athletic
South Alabama	99.9	Sun Belt
South Carolina	106.9	Southeastern
South Carolina St.	88.1	Mideastern Athletic
South Dakota	99.8	Summit
South Dakota St.	102.9	Summit
South Florida	103.4	American Athletic
Southern	91.3	Southwestern Athl.
Southern Illinois	100.6	Missouri Valley
Southern Miss.	94.2	Conference USA
Southern Utah	101.0	Big Sky
St. Bonaventure	103.6	Atlantic 10
St. Francis (NY)	91.4	Northeast
St. Francis (PA)	97.8	Northeast
St. John’s	107.4	Big East
Stanford	110.0	Pac-12
Stephen F. Austin	103.7	Southland
Stetson	92.0	Atlantic Sun
Stony Brook	102.0	America East
Syracuse	109.2	Atlantic Coast
TCU	107.2	Big 12
Temple	105.0	American Athletic
Tennessee	108.7	Southeastern
Tennessee St.	95.7	Ohio Valley
Tennessee Tech	87.4	Ohio Valley
Texas	108.1	Big 12
Texas A&M	101.9	Southeastern
Texas A&M CC	92.5	Southland
Texas Southern	94.0	Southwestern Athl.
Texas St.	104.1	Sun Belt
Texas Tech	113.5	Big 12
Toledo	102.0	Mid-American
Towson	100.0	Colonial Athletic
Troy	93.7	Sun Belt
Tulane	99.1	American Athletic
Tulsa	106.1	American Athletic
UAB	98.7	Conference USA
UC Davis	95.8	Big West
UC Irvine	103.9	Big West
UC Riverside	96.9	Big West
UC Santa Barbara	100.1	Big West
UCLA	103.9	Pac-12
UM Baltimore Co.	92.3	America East
UMass Lowell	93.2	America East
UNC Asheville	92.5	Big South
UNC Greensboro	107.3	Southern
UNC Wilmington	90.4	Colonial Athletic
UNLV	102.4	Mountain West
USC	108.6	Pac-12
USC Upstate	90.5	Big South
UT Arlington	103.2	Sun Belt
UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3	Western Athletic
UT-Martin	90.5	Ohio Valley
Utah	104.4	Pac-12
Utah St.	110.6	Mountain West
Utah Valley	93.9	Western Athletic
UTEP	99.4	Conference USA
UTSA	98.1	Conference USA
Valparaiso	99.9	Missouri Valley
Vanderbilt	100.4	Southeastern
VCU	110.7	Atlantic 10
Vermont	107.5	America East
Villanova	113.3	Big East
Virginia	109.3	Atlantic Coast
Virginia Tech	106.4	Atlantic Coast
VMI	93.6	Southern
Wagner	88.9	Northeast
Wake Forest	105.0	Atlantic Coast
Washington	109.7	Pac-12
Washington St.	102.7	Pac-12
Weber St.	94.5	Big Sky
West Virginia	117.4	Big 12
Western Carolina	100.6	Southern
Western Illinois	89.1	Summit
Western Kentucky	104.6	Conference USA
Western Michigan	95.5	Mid-American
Wichita St.	110.9	American Athletic
William & Mary	98.8	Colonial Athletic
Winthrop	103.7	Big South
Wisconsin	111.3	Big Ten
Wofford	102.2	Southern
Wright St.	103.7	Horizon
Wyoming	93.2	Mountain West
Xavier	110.0	Big East
Yale	109.0	Ivy
Youngstown St.	95.3	Horizon

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

#	America East	PiRate
1	Vermont	107.5
2	Stony Brook	102.0
3	Albany	95.8
4	Hartford	93.7
5	New Hampshire	93.7
6	UMass Lowell	93.2
7	UM Baltimore Co.	92.3
8	Maine	88.5
9	Binghamton	88.1
Avg	America East	95.0
#	American Athletic	PiRate
1	Houston	112.4
2	Cincinnati	111.0
3	Wichita St.	110.9
4	Memphis	110.1
5	Connecticut	108.0
6	SMU	107.0
7	Tulsa	106.1
8	Temple	105.0
9	South Florida	103.4
10	Central Florida	103.4
11	Tulane	99.1
12	East Carolina	96.0
Avg	American Athletic	106.1
#	Atlantic 10	PiRate
1	Dayton	116.9
2	VCU	110.7
3	Rhode Island	109.5
4	Richmond	107.9
5	Davidson	106.4
6	Duquesne	106.0
7	Saint Louis	104.6
8	St. Bonaventure	103.6
9	George Mason	100.0
10	La Salle	99.6
11	Massachusetts	98.0
12	George Washington	97.1
13	Fordham	94.6
14	Saint Joseph’s	94.4
Avg.	Atlantic 10	103.5
#	Atlantic Coast	PiRate
1	Duke	121.1
2	Louisville	116.8
3	Florida St.	114.1
4	Notre Dame	109.3
5	Virginia	109.3
6	Syracuse	109.2
7	North Carolina St.	109.0
8	Georgia Tech	107.7
9	North Carolina	107.4
10	Pittsburgh	106.8
11	Virginia Tech	106.4
12	Clemson	106.4
13	Wake Forest	105.0
14	Miami (Fla.)	103.9
15	Boston College	101.3
Avg	Atlantic Coast	108.9
#	Atlantic Sun	PiRate
1	Liberty	106.7
2	North Florida	99.8
3	Jacksonville	94.9
4	Lipscomb	94.0
5	North Alabama	93.3
6	NJIT	93.0
7	Stetson	92.0
8	Florida Gulf Coast	90.6
9	Kennesaw St.	80.8
Avg	Atlantic Sun	93.9
#	Big 12	PiRate
1	Kansas	121.0
2	Baylor	117.8
3	West Virginia	117.4
4	Texas Tech	113.5
5	Oklahoma	110.0
6	Texas	108.1
7	Iowa St.	108.1
8	Oklahoma St.	107.5
9	TCU	107.2
10	Kansas St.	106.8
Avg	Big 12	111.7
#	Big East	PiRate
1	Seton Hall	114.7
2	Butler	113.5
3	Villanova	113.3
4	Marquette	112.9
5	Creighton	112.5
6	Xavier	110.0
7	Georgetown	109.5
8	Providence	109.0
9	St. John’s	107.4
10	DePaul	107.0
Avg	Big East	111.0
#	Big Sky	PiRate
1	Northern Colorado	104.8
2	Eastern Washington	101.1
3	Southern Utah	101.0
4	Montana	100.0
5	Portland St.	97.9
6	Northern Arizona	97.6
7	Montana St.	97.4
8	Sacramento St.	96.7
9	Weber St.	94.5
10	Idaho St.	92.4
11	Idaho	91.2
#	Big Sky	97.7
#	Big South	PiRate
1	Winthrop	103.7
2	Radford	99.5
3	Gardner-Webb	94.3
4	Campbell	92.6
5	UNC Asheville	92.5
6	Charleston Southern	91.9
7	USC Upstate	90.5
8	Longwood	90.3
9	Hampton	89.9
10	Presbyterian	88.4
11	High Point	86.2
Avg	Big South	92.7
#	Big Ten	PiRate
1	Michigan St.	118.0
2	Maryland	115.9
3	Ohio St.	115.6
4	Penn St.	114.6
5	Purdue	113.5
6	Iowa	113.4
7	Michigan	112.8
8	Illinois	112.8
9	Rutgers	112.4
10	Minnesota	111.9
11	Indiana	111.3
12	Wisconsin	111.3
13	Northwestern	103.6
14	Nebraska	102.9
Avg	Big Ten	112.1
#	Big West	PiRate
1	UC Irvine	103.9
2	UC Santa Barbara	100.1
3	Hawaii	99.0
4	UC Riverside	96.9
5	UC Davis	95.8
6	Cal St. Northridge	94.9
7	Cal St. Fullerton	94.3
8	Long Beach St.	90.7
9	Cal Poly	90.6
Avg	Big West	96.2
#	Colonial Athletic	PiRate
1	Hofstra	102.9
2	Charleston	102.7
3	Northeastern	101.7
4	Towson	100.0
5	Delaware	99.0
6	William & Mary	98.8
7	Drexel	96.3
8	James Madison	92.6
9	Elon	91.4
10	UNC Wilmington	90.4
Avg	Colonial Athletic	97.6
#	Conference USA	PiRate
1	Louisiana Tech	107.3
2	North Texas	105.9
3	Western Kentucky	104.6
4	Marshall	100.7
5	Charlotte	100.5
6	Florida Int’l.	99.9
7	Old Dominion	99.8
8	UTEP	99.4
9	UAB	98.7
10	Florida Atlantic	98.1
11	UTSA	98.1
12	Rice	96.8
13	Southern Miss.	94.2
14	Middle Tennessee	93.5
Avg	Conference USA	99.8
#	Horizon	PiRate
1	Wright St.	103.7
2	Northern Kentucky	102.3
3	Green Bay	96.3
4	Oakland	96.0
5	Youngstown St.	95.3
6	Milwaukee	95.1
7	Illinois Chicago	95.0
8	Detroit	92.9
9	Cleveland St.	91.0
10	IUPUI	88.8
Avg	Horizon	95.6
#	Ivy	PiRate
1	Yale	109.0
2	Harvard	104.6
3	Penn	101.6
4	Princeton	99.4
5	Brown	97.0
6	Dartmouth	96.9
7	Columbia	94.0
8	Cornell	93.2
Avg	Ivy	99.5
#	Metro Atlantic	PiRate
1	Siena	98.7
2	Rider	98.5
3	Monmouth	97.2
4	Saint Peter’s	96.6
5	Quinnipiac	95.4
6	Manhattan	95.1
7	Canisius	94.8
8	Fairfield	94.5
9	Niagara	91.9
10	Iona	91.8
11	Marist	89.9
Avg	Metro Atlantic	94.9
#	Mid-American	PiRate
1	Akron	107.3
2	Ball St.	104.5
3	Kent St.	104.0
4	Toledo	102.0
5	Buffalo	101.2
6	Bowling Green	100.7
7	Northern Illinois	100.0
8	Central Michigan	99.9
9	Ohio	97.5
10	Eastern Michigan	96.9
11	Miami (O)	95.9
12	Western Michigan	95.5
Avg	Mid-American	100.5
#	Mideastern Athletic	PiRate
1	Norfolk St.	94.4
2	North Carolina Central	93.1
3	North Carolina A&T	92.4
4	Bethune Cookman	92.2
5	Florida A&M	90.4
6	Morgan St.	90.3
7	Coppin St.	88.4
8	South Carolina St.	88.1
9	Howard	81.6
10	MD Eastern Shore	81.0
11	Delaware St.	80.6
Avg	Mideastern Athletic	88.4
#	Missouri Valley	PiRate
1	Northern Iowa	109.7
2	Loyola (Chi.)	105.0
3	Indiana St.	104.4
4	Bradley	103.9
5	Drake	101.3
6	Southern Illinois	100.6
7	Missouri St.	100.3
8	Valparaiso	99.9
9	Illinois St.	96.1
10	Evansville	93.2
Avg	Missouri Valley	101.4
#	Mountain West	PiRate
1	San Diego St.	116.2
2	Utah St.	110.6
3	Nevada	106.8
4	Boise St.	106.6
5	Colorado St.	105.7
6	UNLV	102.4
7	New Mexico	102.1
8	Fresno St.	101.2
9	Air Force	98.1
10	Wyoming	93.2
11	San Jose St.	91.8
Avg	Mountain West	103.1
#	Northeast	PiRate
1	St. Francis (PA)	97.8
2	Sacred Heart	97.7
3	Robert Morris	96.1
4	Bryant	95.9
5	Merrimack	95.8
6	Long Island	94.9
7	Mount St. Mary’s	94.2
8	Fairleigh Dickinson	91.4
9	St. Francis (NY)	91.4
10	Wagner	88.9
11	Central Connecticut	81.6
Avg	Northeast	93.3
#	Ohio Valley	PiRate
1	Belmont	105.7
2	Murray St.	102.4
3	Austin Peay	100.9
4	Eastern Illinois	96.0
5	Tennessee St.	95.7
6	Jacksonville St.	94.3
7	Morehead St.	92.0
8	Eastern Kentucky	91.9
9	UT-Martin	90.5
10	SE Missouri	88.1
11	Tennessee Tech	87.4
12	SIU Edwardsville	86.8
Avg	Ohio Valley	94.3
#	Pac-12	PiRate
1	Arizona	116.7
2	Oregon	113.4
3	Colorado	113.3
4	Stanford	110.0
5	Washington	109.7
6	Arizona St.	109.0
7	USC	108.6
8	Oregon St.	106.4
9	Utah	104.4
10	UCLA	103.9
11	Washington St.	102.7
12	California	100.4
Avg	Pac-12	108.2
#	Patriot	PiRate
1	Colgate	103.0
2	Boston U	100.8
3	Lafayette	98.8
4	American	96.6
5	Navy	95.6
6	Bucknell	95.1
7	Army	93.5
8	Loyola (MD)	93.2
9	Lehigh	90.6
10	Holy Cross	86.4
Avg	Patriot	95.3
#	Southeastern	PiRate
1	Auburn	113.0
2	Kentucky	112.9
3	Arkansas	112.4
4	LSU	112.1
5	Florida	111.5
6	Mississippi St.	111.2
7	Alabama	110.7
8	Tennessee	108.7
9	South Carolina	106.9
10	Georgia	106.5
11	Mississippi	104.9
12	Missouri	104.8
13	Texas A&M	101.9
14	Vanderbilt	100.4
Avg	Southeastern	108.4
#	Southern	PiRate
1	East Tennessee St.	108.7
2	UNC Greensboro	107.3
3	Furman	106.9
4	Wofford	102.2
5	Western Carolina	100.6
6	Chattanooga	99.7
7	Mercer	96.4
8	VMI	93.6
9	Samford	92.1
10	Citadel	90.5
Avg	Southern	99.8
#	Southland	PiRate
1	Stephen F. Austin	103.7
2	Sam Houston St.	99.5
3	Nicholls St.	98.4
4	Abilene Christian	97.4
5	McNeese St.	95.6
6	Lamar	94.4
7	Texas A&M CC	92.5
8	Central Arkansas	91.9
9	New Orleans	90.4
10	Northwestern St.	90.1
11	SE Louisiana	86.9
12	Houston Baptist	85.3
13	Incarnate Word	83.7
Avg	Southland	93.1
#	Southwestern Athletic	PiRate
1	Prairie View A&M	97.5
2	Texas Southern	94.0
3	Alcorn St.	91.7
4	Southern	91.3
5	Grambling	90.7
6	Jackson St.	89.9
7	Alabama St.	88.4
8	Alabama A&M	86.2
9	Arkansas Pine Bluff	83.5
10	Mississippi Valley St.	77.0
Avg	Southwestern Athletic	89.0
#	Summit	PiRate
1	South Dakota St.	102.9
2	North Dakota St.	102.6
3	Oral Roberts	101.2
4	South Dakota	99.8
5	Omaha	97.1
6	North Dakota	96.3
7	Purdue Fort Wayne	93.5
8	Denver	90.9
9	Western Illinois	89.1
Avg	Summit	97.0
#	Sun Belt	PiRate
1	Texas St.	104.1
2	Georgia St.	103.9
3	UT Arlington	103.2
4	Little Rock	102.4
5	Georgia Southern	101.0
6	Appalachian St.	100.1
7	South Alabama	99.9
8	Coastal Carolina	97.8
9	Arkansas St.	97.1
10	Louisiana	95.9
11	Troy	93.7
12	Louisiana Monroe	93.2
Avg	Sun Belt	99.4
#	West Coast	PiRate
1	Gonzaga	119.5
2	BYU	113.8
3	Saint Mary’s	111.1
4	San Francisco	105.7
5	Santa Clara	101.9
6	Pacific	101.8
7	Pepperdine	101.3
8	Loyola Marymount	97.3
9	San Diego	96.6
10	Portland	93.1
Avg	West Coast	104.2
#	Western Athletic	PiRate
1	New Mexico St.	104.9
2	California Baptist	99.5
3	Seattle	96.9
4	Cal St. Bakersfield	96.1
5	Missouri-KC	95.6
6	UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3
7	Grand Canyon	95.2
8	Utah Valley	93.9
9	Chicago St.	76.7
Avg	Western Athletic	94.9

 

Conference Ratings

 

#	Conference	PiRate
1	Big Ten	112.1
2	Big 12	111.7
3	Big East	111.0
4	Atlantic Coast	108.9
5	Southeastern	108.4
6	Pac-12	108.2
7	American Athletic	106.1
8	West Coast	104.2
9	Atlantic 10	103.5
10	Mountain West	103.1
11	Missouri Valley	101.4
12	Mid-American	100.5
13	Conference USA	99.8
14	Southern	99.8
15	Ivy	99.5
16	Sun Belt	99.4
17	Big Sky	97.7
18	Colonial Athletic	97.6
19	Summit	97.0
20	Big West	96.2
21	Horizon	95.6
22	Patriot	95.3
23	America East	95.0
24	Metro Atlantic	94.9
25	Western Athletic	94.9
26	Ohio Valley	94.3
27	Atlantic Sun	93.9
28	Northeast	93.3
29	Southland	93.1
30	Big South	92.7
31	Southwestern Athletic	89.0
32	Mideastern Athletic	88.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 27, 2020

 

Date	1/27/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.	Kansas
2	Florida St.	Duke	Seton Hall	Louisville
3	West Virginia	Oregon	Michigan St.	Dayton
4	Villanova	Butler	Maryland	Kentucky
5	Iowa	Colorado	Creighton	Penn St.
6	LSU	Illinois	Auburn	Wisconsin
7	Rutgers	Arizona	Marquette	Houston
8	Wichita St.	USC	Indiana	Ohio St.
9	Arkansas	Oklahoma	Stanford	Saint Mary’s
10	Michigan	Florida	BYU	Texas Tech
11	N. Carolina St.	Purdue	East Tennessee St.	VCU	Virginia Tech
12	Northern Iowa	Akron	Stephen F. Austin	Memphis	Minnesota
13	Liberty	New Mexico St.	Harvard	Vermont
14	North Texas	Wright St.	Colgate	Little Rock
15	William & Mary	Murray St.	UC-Irvine	South Dakota St.
16	Winthrop	Montana	Monmouth	Norfolk St.	Prairie View A&M	Robert Morris

First Four Out
DePaul	Arizona St.	Syracuse	Alabama
Next Four Out
Rhode Island	Virginia	Richmond	Tennessee

 

Tonight’s Best TV Games

Time	Network	Home	Visitor
6:00 PM 6:00 PM	ESPNU ESPN	Norfolk St. North Carolina St.	Florida A&M North Carolina
7:30 PM	BigTen	Iowa	Wisconsin
8:00 PM	ESPN2	Oklahoma St.	Kansas

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 8, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Wednesday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	Mississippi St.	3.4
Auburn	Vanderbilt	16.4
Boise St.	UNLV	6.0
Cincinnati	Tulsa	8.0
Connecticut	Tulane	11.0
Georgetown	St. John’s	5.0
Georgia Tech	Duke	-13.1
Indiana	Northwestern	11.1
Iowa St.	Kansas	-7.2
LSU	Arkansas	4.5
North Carolina	Pittsburgh	6.5
North Carolina St.	Notre Dame	5.5
San Jose St.	Nevada	-11.9
SMU	Central Florida	6.1
Texas	Oklahoma	1.4
Wake Forest	Florida St.	-6.4
Wisconsin	Illinois	3.8
Wyoming	San Diego St.	-18.6
Xavier	Seton Hall	0.7

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 29, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Michigan St.	121.0	0.0	LSU	114.5	6.5
North Carolina	121.4	0.0	Auburn	115.9	5.5
Duke	122.4	0.0	Virginia Tech	115.4	7.0
Kentucky	118.3	0.0	Houston	116.0	2.3

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team	Team	TIME (EDT)	TV	LOCATION
LSU	Michigan St.	7:09 PM	CBS	Washington, D.C.
Auburn	N. Carolina	7:29 PM	TBS	Kansas City
Va. Tech	Duke	9:39 PM	CBS	Washington, D.C.
Houston	Kentucky	9:59 PM	TBS	Kansas City

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Sweet 16

What a Sweet 16 we have!  My experience in watching the NCAA Tournament goes back to the 1964 season as UCLA went 30-0 using a small lineup with no starter over 6 foot 5.  The 16-0 run in 2 1/2 minutes made me a Bruin fan on the spot, especially because one of the catalysts was small,left-handed guard Gail Goodrich; I was also a small, left-handed guard.

On the whole, my memory now includes 56 different NCAA Tournaments.  I had a difficult time finding a Sweet 16 as strong as this one.  I had to go back to the 1970 season to find the equivalent in power teams still in the Dance.  Of course, in 1970,  there were just 25 teams invited to the Tournament, so 18 teams competed in the opening round, while another seven received express bids to the Sweet 16.

Among that talented group of 1970 teams, there were:

1. UCLA was not supposed to win the 1970 tournament, as Kareem Abdul Jabbar and his fantastic class of 1969 graduated.  Sidney Wicks, Curtis Rowe, and Henry Bibby gave John Wooden an incredibly talented trio to build around as he went back to his high post offense.

2. Jacksonville had Artis Gilmore and Rex Morgan as an incredible inside-outside attack.  The Dolphins averaged close to 100 points per game and had a second starter in their lineup, Pembroke Burrows, who was over 7 feet tall.

3. St. Bonaventure had the best player in college basketball not named Maravich in Bob Lanier.  Lanier led the Bonnies to the top of the Eastern Elite, and SBU made it to the Final Four.  However, Lanier was injured in the East Regional Final and SBU had no chance in the Final Four against Jacksonville.

4. New Mexico State was in the top 5 all year long with future NBA stars Charlie Criss and Sam Lacey as well as hot shooting Jimmy Collins.  The Aggies were picked by many as capable of beating UCLA in the national semifinals.  Wicks and Rowe put NMSU out of their misery early in the second half.

5. Kentucky might have had the best team in the nation in 1970 had star guard Mike Casey not have suffered season-ending injuries in a car wreck the summer before.  With Dan Issel, Mike Pratt, Tom Parker, and Larry Steele, the Wildcats might have gone 30-0 had Casey not hurt his leg.

6. Niagara had the incomparable 5 foot 9 inch Calvin Murphy who was the total package on the hardwoods.  Murphy averaged well over 30 ppg for his career with the Purple Eagles and enjoyed a lengthy pro career.  He once scored 68 points against Syracuse.  He was a lot more than a scorer.  His defensive pressure broke down opposing teams.  He could drive quickly through defenses and pass to open teammates under the basket, and he was the best baton twirler in the college ranks.

7. Villanova had two future NBA All-Stars in Howard Porter and Chris Ford, as well as Fran O’Hanlon, who played in the ABA.  It was Ford that tripped Lanier in the Eastern Regional Championship Game that doomed St. Bonaventure.

8. Notre Dame had the best offensive player in the tournament in Austin Carr.  Carr was unstoppable on offense with the way officials called fouls in 1970.  He averaged over 38 points per game, but he made history in this tournament by scoring 61 points in the opening round win over Ohio U.  He hit for more than 50 in the Sweet 16 against Kentucky.

9. Iowa set the Big Ten record for points per game in 1970, almost averaging 100 points per night.  Among their stars was Downtown Freddie Brown, who would become one of the best 6th men in NBA history.  Before he became known as “Instant Offense” off the Seattle Supersonics’ bench, he was a dynamic starter for the Hawkeyes along with John Johnson, who averaged close to 30 ppg.

14 of the 16 teams in that tournament were what I consider strong teams according to today’s statistical standards, and 14 of this year’s 16 remaining teams fit that same description.

It’s no coincidence that of the 16 teams left, the Bracketnomics correctly picked 14 of the 16.

NOTE: The data that follows may be a little different than the original Bracketnomics’ posting at the beginning of the tournament.  Stats have been altered, especially the Strengths of Schedule (SOS) for some of the teams.

If you get to re-select your brackets at this point, ignore the original predictions and use these updated stats.  The originals predictions are still our “official bracket-picks,” but in this round, there is new and improved analytics.

NOTE 2: Do not confuse the Bracketnomics’ selections with the PiRate Ratings, which may contradict these picks in a couple of games.  The PiRate Ratings are strictly mechanical with no objective reasoning applied.  Bracketnomics are more subjective based on back-tested data usable only in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Gonzaga	56.14	17.6	31.1	73.2	12.8	16.5	15.1
Florida St.	59.85	3.7	33.0	73.5	16.2	18.0	9.1

After two rounds in this tournament, Gonzaga still owns the best criteria in the field, and nothing has changed in our beliefs that they have the best chance to run the table.  The Bulldogs only potential weakness is schedule strength, but at 56%+, it is more than adequate for a national champion.  The True Shooting % Margin combined with the R+T make The Zags the much better team here.  Florida State relies on offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers, but Gonzaga is not the team that the Seminoles can exploit enough times to come up with the win.  Gonzaga gets revenge for last year’s Sweet 16.

Prediction:  Gonzaga by 10-15 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Tennessee	59.50	5.3	31.1	70.5	13.9	15.8	5.5
Purdue	60.82	3.5	34.3	74.0	13.6	16.9	11.6

Purdue hasn’t been in the Elite 8 since 2000, and they have not made it to the Final Four since 1980.  The Boilermakers have historically been unable to get scoring spurts in the Gene Keady-Matt Painter years.  They played excellent half-court offense and defense defense, but their style did not allow them to be overpowering on the boards or to gamble for steals on defense.  Like Money Ball does not work in the Major League Playoffs, possession basketball doesn’t work well in the Big Dance.  Teams need to have that spurtability, which is what the R+T rating shows, and Purdue has rarely had a great R+T rating.  That was the past; this Boilermaker squad has a very good R+T rating, and it comes from both an excellent rebounding strength combined with an adequate ability to force turnovers and not cough the ball up enough times to matter.

Tennessee is more like the old Purdue teams.  The Volunteers have excellent half-court presence on both sides of the ball, but they cannot dominate on the glass, and they do not force enough turnovers.  In this game, I look for Purdue to get numerous second chance scoring opportunities, and eventually, the Boilermakers will go for the kill shot with a scoring run that gives them the victory.

Prediction: Purdue by 6 to 11 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan	59.87	8.8	24.0	75.6	12.1	15.9	4.0
Texas Tech	58.42	10.1	28.1	71.7	16.1	20.0	4.4

 

This has the chance to be a classic game that will generate headlines for a long time.  This is the closest thing to a 50-50 tossup there can be.  If you had to choose one game to go to triple overtime, this is the one I’d pick (I just gave it the kiss of death and it will be a blowout now).

With Michigan’s 1 1/2 point SOS advantage, it basically makes all the criteria dead even.  Two teams with excellent defensive efficiency should lead to the game being decided on rebounding and turnovers.  The Red Raiders are better on the offensive glass, but the Wolverines are better on the defensive glass.  Texas Tech is considerably better forcing turnovers, but Michigan is considerably better holding onto the ball.  The R+T is dead even.  The only tiny little stat where there is a difference is TS% Margin, where even with the better SOS, Michigan comes up just a tad short, but not enough to matter more than one point on the scoreboard.

I have to go to extracurricular statistics here to select a winner in this game.  Texas Tech has been more consistent with their production, while Michigan’s standard deviation of statistics has been greater.  The Wolverines have been up for five consecutive games, while Texas Tech has been on an even keel since January.  Michigan has experience from making it to the Championship Game last year, while Texas Tech made it to the Elite 8 last year, so once again this washes.  Michigan is 7-3 against ranked teams this year.  TTU is 3-2.  Maybe, this is the only stat I can use to pick a winner, and it is still a total guess.  I’ll have my eyes glued to this game.

Prediction: Michigan by 1 to 5 points, possibly in overtime

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Virginia	59.95	12.9	29.9	74.8	13.0	15.7	10.4
Oregon	55.83	4.5	29.4	71.7	15.4	18.3	4.3

Oregon coach Dana Altman deserves a ton of credit.  If you don’t think losing a 5-star McDonald’s All-American freshman phenom when you have another one on the roster  hurts, look at what happened to Bryce Drew at Vanderbilt.  Drew lost Darius Garland early in the year but still had another 5-star freshman phenom in Simi Shittu.  Vanderbilt lost their final 20 games in a row, and Drew was dismissed.  Altman lost superstar Bol Bol early in the year, and the Ducks were counted out.  Altman rallied Oregon and won the Pac-12 Tournament.  Then, they knocked out mid-major darling UC-Irvine to make it back to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years.

Virginia survived a scare against Gardner-Webb, but the Cavaliers righted the ship and stormed back to win by 15, and then the Cavs ousted Oklahoma much more easily in the Round of 32.  On the surface, some may believe that UVA is strictly a half-court possession wonder, the type that usually disappoints in the Big Dance.  This is not so.  The Cavaliers have a double-digit R+T rating, which makes them capable of benefiting from scoring spurts, like they did in 2016, when they made it to the Elite 8 and watched a second half double-digit lead against Syracuse turn into a loss when the Orangemen went on a huge scoring run.

This game looks like the most lopsided in this round.  Virginia has the advantage across the board, and Oregon has not beaten a team this good all year.  The Ducks only played one ranked team in the regular season.  Think of Bol Bol as twice the player Tacko Fall is for Central Florida.  That’s why  Oregon should be happy they made the Sweet 16.

Prediction: Virginia by 12-17 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan St.	61.11	14.0	33.8	74.1	16.4	12.7	12.3
LSU	58.71	3.4	36.5	69.8	15.2	17.6	9.4

The fact that four SEC teams made the Sweet 16, and LSU won the conference championship shows that the Tigers are good enough to keep playing into April, even with acting coach Tony Benford taking over for Will Wade.

On the other side, Michigan State is almost perfect when you look at the resume of a Final Four team.  The Spartans do not force turnovers like most Final Four teams in the past, and they are vulnerable to a team that can pressure them into turnovers.

LSU has the personnel to force MSU out of their normal offense and negate any potential rebounding advantage Sparty has.  This game still looks favorable to Michigan State due to a great difference in True Shooting Percentage Margin.  LSU might not get enough open looks and second chance points to match the inside scoring of Nick Ward and Xavier Tillman combined with the three-point shooting of Cassius Winston.

Prediction: Michigan State by 4 to 9 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
North Carolina	62.05	5.4	34.8	77.7	14.6	16.5	18.9
Auburn	59.91	1.9	32.2	67.8	14.6	21.8	2.7

 

This game should be played at a tempo of 75 possessions per team.  Auburn was the best up-tempo team in the SEC this year, but North Carolina was the best up-tempo team in the ACC.

Can Auburn force North Carolina, namely point guard Coby White to make enough mistakes to keep this game close?  White has been prone to force the issue a bit at times, but in the games against the best pressure man-to-man teams, he did not make enough mistakes to cost Carolina the win, and in several games, his deft handling of the ball was the reason the Tar Heels won.

North Carolina remains the second best team in the tournament according to Bracketnomics, and this game has the potential to get out of hand.  The Tar Heels have a huge advantage on the offensive glass, and this should be the deciding factor.  UNC will score on several consecutive possessions at some point in this game and take a commanding lead that forces Auburn to panic on offense and commit some mistakes of their own.

Prediction: North Carolina by 10-15 points

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Duke	62.61	9.8	35.5	71.0	14.7	17.0	12.1
Virginia Tech	58.20	8.5	29.0	72.9	15.3	19.1	6.1

 

Virginia Tech’s home court advantage in a game with Duke was three points and change, but let’s round it back to 3.  They beat Duke in Blacksburg by five points.  Duke didn’t have Zion Williamson.  Is Zion worth three points more for Duke than his backup?  Of course, he is; he’s worth a lot more than three extra points in Duke’s overall production.

Duke has an exploitable liability, and Central Florida exposed it.  Buzz Williams will do everything to try to force the Blue Devils to beat his squad by not being weak in their perimeter shooting.  UCF had two big guys inside that could force Duke to shoot from the perimeter.  Virginia Tech has one big guy, Kerry Blackshear, who probably cannot stop the Duke inside game.

In my opinion, there are a couple teams that can force Duke to have a better than average perimeter shooting night to beat them, but Virginia Tech is not one of them.

Prediction: Duke by 8 to 13 points

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kentucky	60.44	9.8	36.6	74.7	15.8	16.0	16.2
Houston	55.45	8.3	34.2	74.8	14.0	15.8	14.6

This game could be very interesting in a different way than the Michigan and Texas Tech game.  You get contrasting styles in this contest, and there are many variables, some of which favor the underdog Cougars in this cat fight.

There is a giant variable here, one that is enough to take this game from a relatively safe victory for Kentucky to a toss-up.  Star forward P.J. Washington might play in this game, and he might not be healthy enough.  Even if he plays, he cannot possibly be all that effective.  What bothers me is that he went from a protective boot to a cast, which means the injury was worse than first thought.  He’s going to one of the top foot specialists in the nation, and I think the goal here is to make sure Washington is ready for the NBA Draft.

If Washington does not play in this game, it becomes one where Houston has a 40-45% chance of winning.  If Washington plays sparingly, Kentucky’s chances increase by another 5-10%.  If miraculously Washington can play near full strength for 25 minutes, then the Big Blue win this game going away.

I will select this game based on the assumption that Washington will play but at much less than full strength.  Reid Travis is ready to have a big game for Kentucky now that he is basically 100% at full strength following his injury, and I look for John Calipari to direct his team to play intelligently and take advantage of their muscle advantage.

Prediction: Kentucky but 5-10 points

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Tennessee	117.9	0.0	Iowa	111.4	6.5
North Carolina	121.3	0.0	Washington	109.7	11.6
Duke	122.9	0.0	Central Florida	110.0	12.9
Texas Tech	118.0	0.0	Buffalo	115.2	2.8
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Liberty	107.3	8.2
Virginia	120.8	0.0	Oklahoma	111.4	9.4
Houston	115.3	0.0	Ohio St.	110.2	5.1
Oregon	110.8	0.0	UC Irvine	106.6	4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time	Game	Network	Site
12:10 PM	Tennessee vs. Iowa	CBS	Columbus
2:40 PM	North Carolina vs. Washington	CBS	Columbus
5:15 PM	Duke vs. Central Florida	CBS	Columbia
6:10 PM	Texas Tech vs. Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
7:10 PM	Virginia Tech vs. Liberty	TBS	San Jose
7:45 PM	Virginia vs. Oklahoma	TruTV	Columbia
8:40 PM	Houston vs. Ohio St.	TNT	Tulsa
9:40 PM	Oregon vs. UC-Irvine	TBS	San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 22, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Cincinnati	110.8	1.5	Iowa	111.1	1.2
Ole Miss	110.3	0.0	Oklahoma	110.7	-0.4
Texas Tech	117.8	0.0	Northern Kentucky	104.5	13.3
Kansas St.	112.7	0.0	UC-Irvine	106.2	6.5
Tennessee	118.3	0.0	Colgate	102.8	15.5
Gardner-Webb	99.5	1.0	Virginia	121.1	-20.6
Buffalo	115.0	0.0	Arizona St.	107.9	7.1
Wisconsin	115.1	0.0	Oregon	109.7	5.4
Utah St.	111.3	0.0	Washington	108.8	2.5
Duke	123.1	0.0	North Dakota St.	97.9	25.2
Houston	114.8	0.0	Georgia St.	103.9	10.9
Mississippi St.	113.9	0.0	Liberty	106.7	7.2
North Carolina	121.7	0.0	Iona	97.8	23.9
Virginia Commonwealth	110.7	0.0	Central Florida	109.4	1.3
Iowa St.	114.8	0.0	Ohio St.	109.9	4.9
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Saint Louis	104.1	11.4

 

Today’s Schedule

All Times EDT

TIME	MATCHUP	NETWORK	SITE
12:15 PM	(10) Iowa vs. (7) Cincinnati	CBS	Columbus
12:40 PM	(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Ole Miss	truTV	Columbia
1:30 PM	(14) Northern Kentucky vs. (3) Texas Tech	TNT	Tulsa
2 PM	(13) UC Irvine vs. (4) Kansas State	TBS	San Jose
Approx. 3 PM	(15) Colgate vs. (2) Tennessee	CBS	Columbus
Approx. 3:25 PM	(16) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) Virginia	truTV	Columbia
Approx. 4:15 PM	(11) St. John’s / Arizona State vs. (6) Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
Approx. 4:45 PM	(12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin	TBS	San Jose
6:50 PM	(9) Washington vs. (8) Utah State	TNT	Columbus
7:10 PM	(16) NC Central / North Dakota St. vs. (1) Duke	CBS	Columbia
7:20 PM	(14) Georgia State vs. (3) Houston	TBS	Tulsa
7:27 PM	(12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State	truTV	San Jose
Approx. 9:35 PM	(16) Iona vs. (1) North Carolina	TNT	Columbus
Approx. 9:55 PM	(9) UCF vs. (8) VCU	CBS	Columbia
Approx. 10:05 PM	(11) Ohio State vs. (6) Iowa State	TBS	Tulsa
Approx. 10:12 PM	(13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech	truTV	San Jose

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology For 2019

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Duke	Virginia	Gonzaga	North Carolina
2	Michigan St.	Tennessee	Michigan	Kentucky
3	Houston	Florida St.	Texas Tech	LSU
4	Purdue	Kansas St.	Wisconsin	Kansas
5	Auburn	Villanova	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
6	Buffalo	Mississippi St.	Cincinnati	Marquette
7	Wofford	Maryland	Louisville	Nevada
8	Iowa	Seton Hall	Minnesota	Central Florida
9	Ole Miss	Syracuse	Baylor	Washington
10	Virginia Commonwealth	Utah St.	Florida	Oklahoma
11	Oregon	Ohio St.	Temple/Arizona St.	St. John’s/TCU
12	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.	Vermont
13	Liberty	UC-Irvine	Old Dominion	Montana
14	Saint Louis	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Colgate	Abilene Christian
16	Gardner-Webb	Prairie View A&M	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	N. Dakota St./UNC Central

 

Last Four Byes

Virginia Commonwealth

Florida

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

 

Last Four In

Temple

St. John’s

TCU

Arizona St.

 

First Four Out

North Carolina St.

Belmont

UNC Greensboro

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Indiana

Alabama

Clemson

Texas

 

Bids By Conference

Conference	Bids
Big Ten	8
ACC	7
SEC	7
Big 12	7
Big East	4
AAC	4
Pac-12	3
MWC	2
West Coast	2
Atlantic 10	2
One-Bid Leagues	22