It wasn’t the most accurate of seasons for the PiRate Bracketnomics’ system, but it did pick the national champion again. We’re not sure of the exact count, but someone else says this is our 15th correct pick of the national champion in 23 years of putting out a mathematical prediction.
In the end, Connecticut won by getting several more cheap baskets than Purdue. The Boilermakers could not force turnovers on UConn, and the Huskies applied enough defensive pressure on Purdue’s guards to force the Boilermakers to become one dimensional.
The PiRates now prepare to go to sea for the next 17 weeks, as we expect to encounter some swift currents and crashing waves, preparing for an evolution of college football not seen in more than 100 years. We have to recalculate and reprogram all the conferences that will have massive realignment. Hopefully, we will have the college football ratings ready to debut the second or third week of August.
PER: Player Efficiency Rating is a per-minute rating that sums up all a player’s positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player’s performance.”
TS%: True Shooting Percentage is the player’s shooting efficiency, calculated by: (pts * 0.5)/(FGA + (.475 * FTA))
FTr: Free Throw Rate is the number of FT attempts compared to FG attempts
ORB%: Offensive Rebound Percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds while the player was on the floor
DRB%: Defensive Rebound Percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds while the player was on the floor
Ast%: Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on the floor
STL%: Steal percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while he was on the floor
BLK%: Block percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent two-point FG attempts blocked by the player while he was on the floor
TO%: Turnover percentage is the number of turnovers per 100 plays
O+/- & D+/- : Offensive and Defensive Plus/Minus is an estimate of the offensive/defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league average player translated to an average team
Team
UConn
Purdue
Stat
Klingan
Edey
PER
35.4
39.2
TS%
63.7
66.0
FTr
48.8
82.9
ORB%
14.2
18.2
DRB%
23.8
25.6
Ast%
13.8
14.8
Stl%
1.4
0.5
Blk%
11.8
7.0
TO%
7.4
10.8
O+/-
9.0
12.9
D+/-
6.2
3.7
Team
UConn
Purdue
Stat
Karaban
Kaufman-Renn
PER
20.4
17.1
TS%
62.7
54.3
FTr
16.1
47.8
ORB%
5.6
11.5
DRB%
12.5
15.7
Ast%
7.7
10.2
Stl%
1.7
0.9
Blk%
2.7
2.1
TO%
7.5
11.0
O+/-
6.1
2.6
D+/-
2.9
2.1
Team
UConn
Purdue
Stat
Castle
Loyer
PER
19.1
13.8
TS%
55.3
58.1
FTr
38.3
33.9
ORB%
7.8
1.1
DRB%
12.1
7.3
Ast%
18.5
12.1
Stl%
1.8
1.6
Blk%
2.1
0.1
TO%
12.8
11.3
O+/-
3.4
2.9
D+/-
3.0
2.6
Team
UConn
Purdue
Stat
Spencer
Jones
PER
22.9
14.5
TS%
64.5
54.6
FTr
22.9
24.9
ORB%
3.9
2.1
DRB%
12.3
8.5
Ast%
19.0
12.1
Stl%
2.7
2.7
Blk%
0.7
0.8
TO%
8.2
12.1
O+/-
7.3
2.5
D+/-
4.4
3.3
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Basketball–National Championship Game
After a fantastic first weekend of Bracketnomics success, the second weekend was a bummer. We at least have our national champion pick still alive, as Connecticut has looked like a UCLA team during the Jabbar/Walton days, not facing any opposition to get to the Final Four.
Unfortunately, the only other thing we picked correctly, and we hate that it came true, was our three-month long worry that Houston’s style of intensive play leads to a high incidence of injuries, and just one injury to a key player could kill their chances of getting to the Final Four. It did, and they didn’t. This makes three key injuries in three years for Kelvin Sampson’s club, and it is definitely not coincidental.
We sort of mentioned that the NCAA Selection Committee had given Purdue its best chance to make the Final Four, and it was probably now or never for Matt Painter to take the Boilermakers to the promised land, because no teams in its regional had the necessary skills to attack Purdue’s one Achilles’ heel. To beat Purdue, a team must be able to pressure their backcourt and force the Boilermakers to make turnovers, especially steals that lead to fast break baskets, where Zach Edey cannot recover in time to get into defensive positioning. Is there a team remaining that can exploit this weakness, or is this year the year the Keady Curse is broken, like 2004 for the Boston Red Sox?
Let’s take a look at both Semifinal games as the Bracketnomics’ data shows. Actual PiRate Spreads for these games will publish later today.
Semifinal Game 1: 6:00 PM EDT on TBS
North Carolina State (26-14) vs. Purdue (33-4)
Stat
Purdue
NC State
O-RTG
126.4
115.1
D-RTG
95.3
99.0
SOS
63.6
59.7
3-Pt
40.6
34.7
O-Reb
38.0
28.4
2PT%D
47.5
49.2
FTR
42.2
32.6
R+T Rate
13.4
2.3
Old R+T
23.5
5.9
Marg
14.1
4.3
Win Strk
9/7/7
9
Pre25
Y
N
Champ
Y
Y
Coach Exp
15
4
3 Upper
N
Y
F/C 20-12
Y
N
DBLFIG
4
4
OReb
38.0
28.4
OStl
8.0
10.4
OTurn
13.8
12.0
DReb
24.0
29.0
DStl
9.8
7.4
DTurn
12.0
15.2
Reb Marg
11.7
-0.6
Stl/G
5.5
7.2
D Stl
6.8
5.1
TO Marg
-1.9
2.6
Verdict: The only chance North Carolina State has of pulling off a monumental upset is to capitalize to the maximum on their ability to force turnovers and pick up steals and then get extra points off these extra scoring opportunities. It will take at least 8 steals and 15 forced turnovers to give the Wolf Pack any chance of winning this game, and a more likely winning scenario would need 10 or more steals and 17 or more turnovers forced. Without these parameters being met, Purdue will win the half-court battle at both ends enough times to secure a comfortable win. The officials have not called three-seconds once on Edey the entire tournament, and he’s been in the lane long enough to get a parking ticket. And, while he’s been fouled on almost every possession in the tournament, he’s done a good deal of fouling right back. Who knows if this will change in the Final Four, but if Edey were forced to the bench with foul trouble, the game becomes more evenly matched.
One other thing to look at in this game is whether Purdue’s outside shooters remain hot from the field. If they hit over 40% from behind the arc, Edey can be held to 18 points and Purdue will still win.
One minor thing to consider is that NC State coach Kevin Keatts comes from the Rick Pitino coaching tree, and this tree has been quite successful in the Final Four with Billy Donovan and Tubby Smith owning championship rings. Keatts must know that he’s going to have to put exceptional pressure on the PU back-court, but Painter is no fool; he knows exactly what the Wolf Pack must do to win, and he’s definitely prepared his perimeter players this week for the expected strategy to be employed.
Semifinal Game 2: 8:30 PM EDT on TBS
Alabama (25-11) vs. Connecticut (35-3)
Stat
UConn
Alabama
O-RTG
126.7
125.8
D-RTG
91.5
102.6
SOS
61.8
63.2
3-Pt
35.8
37.1
O-Reb
36.6
35.2
2PT%D
43.0
50.7
FTR
32.4
35.7
R+T Rate
12.3
3.9
Old R+T
22.2
9.9
Marg
18.1
9.5
Win Strk
14/11/7
6
Pre25
Y
Y
Champ
Y
N
Coach Exp
5 (NC)
6
3 Upper
N
Y
F/C 20-12
Y
N
DBLFIG
5.0
4
OReb
36.6
35.2
OStl
9.5
9.4
OTurn
12.5
13.6
DReb
26.7
30.8
DStl
8.3
10.0
DTurn
14.0
13.2
Reb Marg
8.8
4.1
Stl/G
6.3
7.1
D Stl
5.5
7.5
TO Marg
0.9
-0.4
Verdict: This has the makings of another blowout win for the defending national champions. Alabama’s defense is not up to the task of slowing down Connecticut, and the only way the Crimson Tide can stay in this game is if they hit about 15 three-pointers and force the pace to go north of 73 possessions. Otherwise, UConn will grab the lead in the first half and have this game out of reach by halftime, or if Alabama is still within reach, the Huskies will go on one of their patented second half runs to cause many viewers to turn off the game and go about their normal Saturday night activities.
Note: North Carolina State playing in its 41st game in the Semifinals becomes just the third Division 1 team ever to play 41 games in a season, or half an NBA season. If the Wolf Pack upset Purdue to make it to the final game, they will be the first team ever to play 42 games in a season. The other two teams that played 41 games were Connecticut in 2011 and Michigan in 2018. The 2011 UConn team did it the same way that NC State has done it so far this year–win 5 games in 5 days in their conference tournament to even qualify for the Big Dance and then win six more NCAA Tournament games to win the Championship. NC State has won four more games to get to game 41.
Teams meeting all three: Arizona, Connecticut, Duke, Purdue
Important Rates
35%+
30.0+
<48.5
>28.5
Team
3-Pt
O-Reb
2PT%D
FTR
Alabama
36.7
34.9
50.8
35.9
Arizona
37.3
35.6
47.4
36.3
Clemson
35.3
27.4
46.9
31.1
Connecticut
36.1
36.2
43.5
32.8
Creighton
36.6
26.2
45.7
24.7
Duke
38.1
32.1
49.0
34.3
Gonzaga
36.2
34.0
44.2
31.1
Houston
34.9
36.9
43.1
30.7
Illinois
35.3
36.2
46.5
37.1
Iowa St.
35.6
31.4
47.2
35.3
Marquette
36.0
25.8
49.3
25.2
North Carolina
35.8
32.6
45.8
36.7
North Carolina St.
34.7
28.7
49.5
32.7
Purdue
40.9
37.9
47.5
42.4
San Diego St.
31.8
33.4
46.9
36.7
Tennessee
33.9
32.8
44.0
34.4
Teams Meeting All Four: Arizona, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Illinois, Iowa St., North Carolina, Purdue
Teams Meeting All Seven Above: Arizona, Connecticut, Purdue
Essentials
Team
R+T Rate
Old R+T
Marg
Win Strk
Alabama
4.4
10.3
9.8
6
Arizona
15.8
24.7
15.7
8 & 6
Clemson
-6.2
7.3
6.6
9
Connecticut
11.9
21.3
17.7
14, 9, 7
Creighton
-2.9
8.4
11.1
N
Duke
9.3
16.3
13.3
8
Gonzaga
9.1
22.1
16.2
9
Houston
15.9
19.9
16.4
14 & 11
Illinois
8.5
17.3
11.2
6*
Iowa St.
10.7
13.8
14.2
6
Marquette
-1.0
3.3
8.7
8
North Carolina
10.9
18.7
11.8
10 & 8
North Carolina St.
2.6
5.8
3.9
7*
Purdue
13.1
23.2
14.4
9, 7, 7
San Diego St.
8.7
14.7
8.4
7 & 6
Tennessee
8.1
14.8
12.1
7 & 7
* Illinois and North Carolina State’s winning streaks only qualify at 6 or more games due to winning their two NCAA Tournament games.
Teams Meeting All Four: Arizona, Connecticut, Iowa St., North Carolina, Purdue
Teams Meeting All 11 Above: Arizona, Connecticut, Purdue
Additional Criteria (minor)
YES
YES
EXP.
YES
YES
3+
Team
Pre25
Champ
Coach Exp
3 Upper
F/C 20-12
DBLFIG
Alabama
Y
N
6
Y
N
4
Arizona
Y
Y
2
Y
Y
4
Clemson
N
N
6
Y
Y
3
Connecticut
Y
Y
5 NC
N
Y
5
Creighton
Y
N
11
Y
N
4
Duke
Y
N
1
N
Y
5
Gonzaga
Y
N
23 2FF
Y
Y
4
Houston
Y
Y
19 2FF
Y
N
3
Illinois
Y
Y
7
Y
N
4
Iowa St.
N
Y
4
Y
N
4
Marquette
Y
N
10 1FF
Y
N
4
North Carolina
Y
Y
1 1FF
Y
Y
4
North Carolina St.
N
Y
4
Y
N
4
Purdue
Y
Y
15
N
Y
4
San Diego St.
Y
N
4 1FF
Y
Y
2
Tennessee
Y
Y
27 1FF
Y
N
3
Note: Only Arizona meets all 11 criteria above plus all the additional minor criteria, as both Connecticut and Purdue do not have at least three upperclassmen in their top seven players.
The Hustle Ratios
Team
OReb
OStl
OTurn
DReb
DStl
DTurn
Alabama
34.9
9.7
13.7
30.3
10.0
13.5
Arizona
35.6
11.2
13.7
23.4
9.4
16.1
Clemson
27.4
6.7
13.1
25.7
8.9
2.1
Connecticut
36.2
9.4
12.5
26.6
8.3
14.1
Creighton
26.2
5.6
13.7
24.7
8.7
9.8
Duke
32.1
9.9
12.3
25.8
8.0
15.1
Gonzaga
34.0
9.6
12.2
27.3
7.8
13.9
Houston
36.9
15.3
11.3
31.0
7.8
20.9
Illinois
36.2
6.1
12.7
26.4
7.9
10.8
Iowa St.
31.4
15.2
13.3
29.3
8.8
22.5
Marquette
25.8
12.4
12.8
31.0
8.2
18.3
North Carolina
32.6
8.0
12.2
23.2
7.7
13.2
North Carolina St.
28.7
10.6
11.9
29.3
7.3
15.4
Purdue
37.9
8.0
13.9
24.2
9.8
12.2
San Diego St.
33.4
10.9
13.9
27.3
8.8
15.9
Tennessee
32.8
11.1
12.7
28.0
9.2
16.3
These hustle stats are what make up the R+T Ratings, but when opposing teams have nearly identical R+T Ratings, looking at each component might give a clue as to where one team can exploit the other team’s weakness.
Rate R+T Raw Scores
Team
REB x
STL x
TO X
Alabama
16.4
-0.15
-0.10
Arizona
46.8
0.90
1.20
Clemson
4.8
-1.10
-5.50
Connecticut
36.4
0.55
0.80
Creighton
4.0
-1.55
-1.95
Duke
23.2
0.95
1.40
Gonzaga
24.8
0.90
0.85
Houston
21.6
3.75
4.80
Illinois
37.2
-0.90
-0.95
Iowa St.
6.4
3.20
4.60
Marquette
-22.8
2.10
2.75
North Carolina
35.6
0.15
0.50
North Carolina St.
-4.4
1.65
1.75
Purdue
52.8
-0.90
-0.85
San Diego St.
22.4
1.05
1.00
Tennessee
17.2
0.95
1.80
These are the raw scores for rebounding rate margins, steal rate margins, and turnover rate margins compared to the average Division 1 team. It not only allows you to see where a team is strong or weak, but you can better see the difference (or shades of greatness/weakness) of each component. For example, Purdue can dominate any other team in the field on the glass, but they are vulnerable against a team that can force turnovers, especially steals, because the Boilermakers cannot do that themselves. It shows that Clemson is the outlier team in the Sweet 16, because they don’t expect to succeed on the glass or the steal/turnover battles.
An example of a great contrast between two teams is tonight’s Illinois-Iowa State game. The Illini will get many second chance opportunities on the offensive glass, but the Cyclones are going to pick up extra, easier scoring opportunities due to extra steals and extra regular scoring opportunities due to turnover margin. When you combine a contrast in offensive and defensive efficiency, and similar schedule strengths, along with a stand-off in R+T ratings, it appears as if this could be the most exciting game of the round and close to a toss-up game.
Might Purdue Do It?
If you have followed our site and read our past statements on Purdue and their style of play, we have talked at length about why the Boilermakers keep coming up short in the NCAA Tournament. And, this year, they are stronger than ever in the things they do great, but they still come up a tad short in the crucial area that has been their Achilles’ Heel since Gene Keady became head coach over 40 years ago. Purdue has excelled in half court offense and defense. If the opponent plays the same style of game, the Boilermakers are prohibitive favorites, because Keady and Matt Painter have proven over and over to be excellent bench coaches that can tweak their half court offenses and defenses and snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat.
However, when the opponent can apply pressure to Purdue’s guards and can turn turnovers into points with fast break opportunities, Purdue’s half court dominance is overcome by the transition game of the opponent. Purdue’s guards can be exploited by quicker ball-hawking guards that can convert steals into baskets, can force them into turnovers, and very importantly not be able to spot Zach Edey open in the low post.
The Boilermakers were given a peach of a bracket, because their first two opponents didn’t have the needed assets to exploit Purdue’s liability. Against Utah State in the round of 32, the Aggies did not apply pressure to the Purdue guards, and they ended up with five steals and nine turnovers forced. Not only did Purdue dominate inside as expected, but they actually showed signs of a dominating fast break, looking more like the Purdue team of the Rick Mount era. If this continues, it’s major trouble for everyone else.
Gonzaga really doesn’t have this ability either, so it will take a monumental half court return volley for the Bulldogs to topple the Boilermakers. If Creighton meets Purdue in the Elite 8, it will be a much better match-up for the Boilermakers than if they were to face Tennessee, but the Volunteers don’t really have a great ability to exploit PU’s weakness. If Purdue doesn’t make the Final Four this year, they may never make it under Painter, unless he totally changes his philosophy and deviates from the Keady system.
How’s Your Bracket
If you copied our bracket for your contests, you should be in very good shape if not near or in the lead. All eight of our teams predicted to make the Elite 8 are still alive, and 12 of the predicted Sweet 16 teams remain. Additionally, there are no Cinderellas remaining. Who knows what might have happened with Samford had the referees not hosed them twice in the final minute of their game with Kansas, as in addition to the horrible foul called on a clean block, they totally missed a blatant elbow/forearm thrown by Hunter Dickinson in the back court of the prior possession, when Samford had cut the lead to two. It should have been an F1 flagrant foul, and Samford should have had two foul shots and the ball. Bucky McMillan might have been offered a Power Conference job if the officiating had not been so biased in favor of the major power, so Samford’s loss might be Samford’s gain, as Bucky Ball has signed a lengthy extension to remain in Birmingham.
If you have the second chance opportunity to fill out new brackets from the Sweet 16 to the Final Four, there isn’t much you need to do to alter your original bracket if you followed along. You should have the same choices in the Sweet 16 round as originally selected, so that the original Elite 8 picks, all still alive, will win tonight or tomorrow night.
Connecticut over San Diego St.
Iowa State over Illinois
North Carolina over Alabama
Arizona over Clemson
Houston over Duke
Marquette over North Carolina St.
Purdue over Gonzaga
Creighton over Tennessee
At the Elite 8, the only potential change I might consider is having Purdue beat Creighton, and then Houston beating Purdue in the Final Four to set up Connecticut and Houston in the championship, which we have previously selected UConn to repeat as champion.
The Bracket Matrix
The PiRate Ratings (Pi) are included in the best college basketball bracketology site on the Internet. Check out the Bracket Project Blog at: https://bracketproject.blogspot.com/
The Pi-Rate Ratings 