PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 26, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
San Diego St.	Creighton	-1.7
Texas	Miami (Fla)	5.3

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For Bracketnomics Comparisons, check out yesterday’s publication: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2023/03/25/pirate-ratings-college-basketball-saturday-march-25-2023/

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Saturday, March 25, 2023



Home	Visitor	Spread
Kansas St.	Florida Atlantic	0.8
Connecticut	Gonzaga	1.2

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Bracketnomics Comparisons

Stat	SDSU	Creighton
O-RTG	70	22
D-RTG	4	14
SOS	57.9	59.3
3-Pt	34.9	35.8
O-Reb	32.0	25.2
2PT%D	49.3	45.9
FTR	33.3	28.6
R+T Rate	9.0	0.1
Old R+T	13.7	8.6
Marg	8.8	8.3
Win Strk	7 & 6	8 & 6
Pre25	YES	YES
Champ	YES	No
Coach Exp	3: 0-3	10: 1S16
3 Upper	YES	NO
F/C 20-12	NO	YES
DBLFIG	1	5
OReb	32.0	25.2
OStl	10.4	7.2
OTurn	15.1	14.9
DReb	25.7	23.2
DStl	9.3	8.6
DTurn	17.2	12.4
Reb Marg	4.6	3.9
Stl/G	7.0	5.1
D Stl	6.3	6.0
TO Marg	1.3	-1.8

Creighton is the slight favorite in this criteria, but it isn’t by much. If not for overall strength of schedule, the Aztecs would have the advantage due to better steal rate and turnover rate, the two criteria that are showing up to be more important this year than an average year. SDSU beat Alabama, because they jumped the passing lanes and won the R+T battle with ease.

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Stat	FAU	Kansas St.
O-RTG	26	35
D-RTG	29	27
SOS	50.5	58.5
3-Pt	36.5	34.0
O-Reb	31.4	30.4
2PT%D	44.7	49.1
FTR	28.9	36.2
R+T Rate	8.7	1.6
Old R+T	16.0	6.4
Marg	13.2	6.6
Win Strk	20 & 10	9 & 6
Pre25	NO	NO
Champ	YES	No
Coach Exp	0	0
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	NO	YES
DBLFIG	3	3
OReb	31.4	30.4
OStl	9.5	11.0
OTurn	14.5	17.0
DReb	25.1	29.9
DStl	8.2	10.2
DTurn	15.9	18.0
Reb Marg	5.7	1.4
Stl/G	6.5	7.9
D Stl	5.6	7.3
TO Marg	0.9	0.9

Florida Atlantic overcame Tennessee’s inside advantage in the Sweet 16, but we have seen the Vols’ inconsistent play all year and don’t think it was entirely the Owls’ defense that eliminated Tennessee’s biggest advantage. Kansas State also has the inside advantage, by even more than that enjoyed by UT. This looks like the end of a great mid-major run for FAU, as Kansas State has enough advantage here to make their first Final Four since Tex Winter and his triple post offense guided the Wildcats to the 1964 Final Four.

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Stat	Miami	Texas
O-RTG	6	15
D-RTG	104	10
SOS	56.1	60.0
3-Pt	37.0	34.5
O-Reb	31.9	28.2
2PT%D	51.5	47.3
FTR	30.2	30.7
R+T Rate	6.1	3.7
Old R+T	11.0	8.0
Marg	7.7	10.6
Win Strk	9 & 7	7 & 6
Pre25	NO	YES
Champ	Co	YES
Coach Exp	10 & 1FF	0
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	NO	NO
DBLFIG	4	4
OReb	31.9	28.2
OStl	10.4	11.2
OTurn	14.0	14.3
DReb	28.4	29.1
DStl	8.5	8.1
DTurn	15.7	19.5
Reb Marg	3.0	-0.3
Stl/G	7.2	7.9
D Stl	5.9	5.7
TO Marg	1.3	4.3

On paper, this is an exciting tossup that could go down to the last minute. However, there is a huge question mark in this game. Texas may not have the services of 6 foot 9 inch forward Dylan Disu, who has been the Longhorns’ best player down the stretch. They dismissed Xavier with Disu playing less than a minute before further injuring his leg.

If Disu cannot play, Miami can ramp up the tempo in this game and wear Texas down. Without Disu, Texas has a major liability on the glass, and they will have to force a lot of turnovers to make up for Miami’s potential extra shot attempts.

Jim Larranaga has taken a team to the Final Four once before, and he did so with a low major team beating the overall number one seed to get there. Miami made it this far last year. It looks favorable for Hurricane Warnings to go up in Houston next week.

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Stat	Connecticut	Gonzaga
O-RTG	3	1
D-RTG	13	73
SOS	58.5	57.5
3-Pt	36.4	38.6
O-Reb	38.9	31.8
2PT%D	45.0	50.3
FTR	30.9	33.6
R+T Rate	15.0	11.4
Old R+T	21.2	18.8
Marg	14.0	13.9
Win Strk	14 & 6	12 & 11
Pre25	NO	YES
Champ	No	YES
Coach Exp	4: 0-4	22 & 2FF
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	YES	YES
DBLFIG	3	4
OReb	38.9	31.8
OStl	9.3	10.2
OTurn	15.9	13.1
DReb	25.9	25.0
DStl	9.8	7.3
DTurn	16.6	16.5
Reb Marg	9.4	5.9
Stl/G	6.4	7.4
D Stl	6.7	5.3
TO Marg	-0.1	2.6

As far as the Bracketnomics are concerned, this may be the real National Championship Game. The two best offenses left in the field and two of the three best overall face off. But, UConn also has a top 20 defense, which is how most National Champions look–top 10 offense and top 20 defense.

Still, this game is not a slam dunk easy win for UConn. Gonzaga has a coach with a lot more tournament experience with two recent Final Fours and with players that have played in the National Championship on this roster. Gonzaga was a pre-season top 25 team, while the Huskies were not, and almost every past national champion was ranked in the pre-season.

The one stat that really concerns us is the turnover margin. As we told you above, turnover margin and steals have been considerably more important this year than an average year. UConn has a negative turnover margin and has a propensity to be a little too gracious throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys. If Gonzaga can get 8 or more steals and force 14 or more turnovers in this game, they will likely win. If the Huskies can limit Bulldog steals to 6 or less, and they commit 12 or fewer turnovers, they will win. If it’s somewhere in between, this game could come down to a last second shot or even overtime.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Friday, March 24, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	San Diego St.	7.6
Houston	Miami (Fla)	7.7
Creighton	Princeton	10.6
Texas	Xavier	3.2

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Thursday, March 23, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Kansas St.	Michigan St.	0.7
Connecticut	Arkansas	4.3
Tennessee	Florida Atlantic	5.8
UCLA	Gonzaga	1.3

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics — Sweet 16 Edition

The opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament was not so wonderful for the PiRate Ratings Bracketnomic System, as two of the projected Final Four fell out. Of the 16 teams we projected, 9 are still alive, including Connecticut, who we selected as an alternative pick for the title if you were afraid to go with a Big Ten team.

We didn’t listen to our own advice. The numbers showed Purdue to be the top team according to the Bracketnomics, but we spent multiple paragraphs telling you why Purdue’s style of play, as well as any team out of the past that was coached by a Gene Keady disciple, was not the way to win the NCAA Tournament. We thought it was time for that trend to end, but in the end, Purdue couldn’t handle the pressure defense of #16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson, and the Boilermakers became the second #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed.

There are still multiple teams remaining in the Sweet 16 that we stated had most of the resume of a national champion. Maybe you took our stats and made your own picks, like many have in the past. We know that many of you are better at interpreting this data than we are.

Many bracket pools allow people to redo their brackets each weekend, so here are the sweet 16 matchups with the bracketnomics data. If you don’t know what each item is, refer back to the Bracketnomics Primer of Monday, March, 13.

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 2023

Stat	Alabama	S. D. St
O-RTG	18	70
D-RTG	3	5
SOS	61.70	57.60
3-Pt	34.1	34.9
O-Reb	34.0	31.9
2PT%D	40.9	49.4
FTR	36.9	33.4
R+T Rate	5.0	9.5
Old R+T	14.4	14.2
Marg	14.1	8.8
Win Strk	9 & 5	6 & 6
Pre25	YES	YES
Champ	YES	YES
Coach Exp	5:4-4/1S16	3: 0-3
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	YES	NO
DBLFIG	3	1
OReb	34.0	31.9
OStl	8.2	10.3
OTurn	15.9	15.1
DReb	27.7	25.1
DStl	9.7	9.4
DTurn	13.6	17.3
Reb Marg	7.3	4.9
Stl/G	6.1	6.9
D Stl	7.2	6.3
TO Marg	-2.1	1.2

Everything points Alabama’s way in this game, as the Aztecs will have difficulty matching the Tide point-for-point if the first half possessions for both teams tops 35. SDSU’s only chance in this game is to force Alabama into making double digit turnovers in the first 25-28 minutes of the game.

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Stat	Creighton	Princeton
O-RTG	23	100
D-RTG	13	96
SOS	59.40	49.80
3-Pt	35.8	33.9
O-Reb	25.4	29.6
2PT%D	45.8	47.0
FTR	28.6	30.7
R+T Rate	0.1	6.3
Old R+T	8.2	13.5
Marg	8.2	7.6
Win Strk	8 & 6	8 & 6
Pre25	YES	NO
Champ	No	YES
Coach Exp	10: 1S16	1: 0-1
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	YES	YES
DBLFIG	5	3
OReb	25.4	29.6
OStl	7.4	7.1
OTurn	14.8	15.3
DReb	23.5	22.2
DStl	8.7	9.0
DTurn	12.5	13.4
Reb Marg	3.7	6.6
Stl/G	5.1	4.9
D Stl	6.1	6.3
TO Marg	-1.7	-1.9

Princeton has a small chance to win this game. They can dominate the glass and the inside game. If they can hold Creighton’s 3-point shooting under its normal rate and get 8 or more second chance points, they can make this game close. Creighton has about an 80-85% chance of winning, not a sure thing, but almost.

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Stat	FAU	Tennessee
O-RTG	29	60
D-RTG	34	1
SOS	50.30	59.40
3-Pt	36.7	33.0
O-Reb	31.2	36.4
2PT%D	44.9	44.8
FTR	28.8	31.0
R+T Rate	9.4	14.9
Old R+T	16.4	19.9
Marg	13.3	13.4
Win Strk	20 & 9	8 & 5
Pre25	NO	YES
Champ	YES	No
Coach Exp	0	26:1FF28
3 Upper	NO	YES
F/C 20-12	NO	NO
DBLFIG	3	3
OReb	31.2	36.4
OStl	9.7	12.5
OTurn	14.4	15.4
DReb	24.6	26.6
DStl	8.1	10.1
DTurn	16.1	19.4
Reb Marg	5.8	6.9
Stl/G	6.7	8.3
D Stl	5.6	6.7
TO Marg	1.0	2.6

This game is all over the map. FAU has the superior offense, but Tennessee has the #1 defense. Tennessee’s schedule is considerably stronger, so the Vols make it through the most important factors as the favorite.

Tennessee is still missing one of their top players in Zakai Zeigler, and the Vols are a hot and cold team. When they are hot, they can beat anybody in the nation, like they did against Alabama. When, they are cold, they lose by double digits to Colorado.

FAU is a consistently good team, but the Owls face an uphill battle in this game. The Vols should advance to the Elite 8.

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Stat	Kan. St.	Mich. St.
O-RTG	47	37
D-RTG	17	31
SOS	58.30	60.50
3-Pt	33.6	38.7
O-Reb	30.5	27.3
2PT%D	49.2	48.2
FTR	36.6	26.9
R+T Rate	1.5	1.0
Old R+T	6.5	7.8
Marg	6.6	3.2
Win Strk	9 & 6	7
Pre25	NO	NO
Champ	No	No
Coach Exp	0	24: 8 FFNC
3 Upper	YES	YES
F/C 20-12	YES	NO
DBLFIG	3	3
OReb	30.5	27.3
OStl	10.9	7.2
OTurn	17.3	14.4
DReb	29.8	25.2
DStl	10.4	8.4
DTurn	18.1	13.2
Reb Marg	1.6	2.9
Stl/G	7.8	4.8
D Stl	7.4	5.5
TO Marg	0.8	-0.9

This is an interesting match up. Neither team has a definite advantage. In a typical year, Michigan State would have a sizable rebounding advantage, but this year has been quite different. Kansas State has the inside advantage in this one.

Michigan State won’t force turnovers on the Wildcats, and when KSU has lost this year, the other team usually forces more turnovers on the Wildcats than they normally commit. We’re going with Kansas State in a close one.

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Stat	Houston	Miami
O-RTG	9	11
D-RTG	4	108
SOS	56.40	55.90
3-Pt	34.2	36.8
O-Reb	37.4	32.3
2PT%D	42.9	51.6
FTR	28.8	30.2
R+T Rate	16.4	6.5
Old R+T	23.5	11.1
Marg	18.3	7.5
Win Strk	13 & 9	9 & 7
Pre25	YES	NO
Champ	YES	Co
Coach Exp	18 & 2FF	10 & 1FF
3 Upper	YES	NO
F/C 20-12	YES	NO
DBLFIG	4	4
OReb	37.4	32.3
OStl	12.5	10.6
OTurn	13.0	14.2
DReb	27.9	28.4
DStl	8.4	8.7
DTurn	18.6	15.8
Reb Marg	7.5	3.1
Stl/G	8.1	7.3
D Stl	5.4	6.0
TO Marg	3.8	1.2

IF? If Marcus Sasser is healthy enough to play near 100% effectively for 32 minutes, Houston is the clear choice to make it to the Elite 8. A groin injury is a tricky thing, because one wrong move can put the injured player out of commission for a long time. A healthy Sasser makes this game a double-digit win possibility for the Cougars, who would then be one win away from getting a chance to play in the Final Four at home.

If Sasser is unable to play, Miami has the advantage. If Sasser plays at less than full strength, then this game becomes a tossup.

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Stat	Xavier	Texas
O-RTG	7	15
D-RTG	64	10
SOS	59.00	60.00
3-Pt	38.9	34.1
O-Reb	30.8	28.5
2PT%D	48.5	47.4
FTR	31.8	30.7
R+T Rate	5.7	3.9
Old R+T	12.8	7.9
Marg	7.4	10.6
Win Strk	11 & 5	6 & 6
Pre25	NO	YES
Champ	No	YES
Coach Exp	11:48|416	1: 0-1
3 Upper	YES	YES
F/C 20-12	YES	NO
DBLFIG	4	4
OReb	30.8	28.5
OStl	9.0	11.2
OTurn	15.1	14.3
DReb	25.2	29.2
DStl	9.6	8.2
DTurn	14.5	19.6
Reb Marg	5.5	-0.3
Stl/G	6.5	7.9
D Stl	6.9	5.8
TO Marg	-0.6	4.3

This is another interesting game. Xavier’s offense is national title-worthy, while their defense is right on the edge of eliminating them. Texas’s offense is just barely outside what most national champions have been rated on the attack side, but their defense is good enough.

The most glaring remaining stat is in coaching experience. Sean Miller has taken 11 past teams to the NCAA Tournament with 4 Elite 8’s and 4 (now 5) Sweet 16’s. Rodney Terry took Fresno St. to one NCAA Tournament and lost in the first game.

We’ve changed our opinion on this game twice. At the time of this writing, we’re going with Texas, but only because Xavier cannot exploit the Longhorns’ liability of handling the ball.

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Stat	Arkansas	UConn
O-RTG	51	3
D-RTG	15	14
SOS	59.20	58.30
3-Pt	31.3	36.4
O-Reb	30.6	39.0
2PT%D	47.0	45.4
FTR	39.2	30.9
R+T Rate	5.9	15.6
Old R+T	10.6	21.3
Marg	6.9	13.8
Win Strk	7	14 & 6
Pre25	YES	NO
Champ	NO	No
Coach Exp	5:2E8|1S16	4: 0-4
3 Upper	YES	NO
F/C 20-12	NO	YES
DBLFIG	4	3
OReb	30.6	39.0
OStl	11.9	9.2
OTurn	15.9	15.8
DReb	27.6	25.6
DStl	9.5	9.7
DTurn	17.9	16.8
Reb Marg	2.8	9.3
Stl/G	8.4	6.3
D Stl	6.7	6.6
TO Marg	1.5	0.1

UConn still has the best resume for a potential national champion, but we’re leery of this game. Throwing out all the criteria you see above, there is one big obvious criterion that cannot be overlooked, even if it isn’t part of this system.

Arkansas Coach Eric Musselman is the best college basketball coach in Division I and second best overall in college (Ben McCollum at Northwest Missouri State is the John Wooden of the 21st Century). Muss has taken two consecutive Razorback teams to the Elite 8, even though neither team had Elite 8 talent. This team is missing a key player and played for much of the season missing two key players. But, the more important piece, Nick Smith, is back.

The criteria favors Connecticut by a sizable margin, but give Arkansas a little bonus for Muss on the bench. It means UConn is favored by a little rather than a lot.

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Stat	Gonzaga	UCLA
O-RTG	1	21
D-RTG	75	2
SOS	57.20	58.80
3-Pt	38.7	34.3
O-Reb	31.4	33.6
2PT%D	50.6	46.6
FTR	33.8	27.5
R+T Rate	11.0	14.3
Old R+T	18.4	17.5
Marg	14.2	13.9
Win Strk	11 & 11	14 & 12
Pre25	YES	YES
Champ	YES	YES
Coach Exp	22 & 2FF	13: 1FF
3 Upper	YES	YES
F/C 20-12	YES	NO
DBLFIG	4	3
OReb	31.4	33.6
OStl	10.5	12.5
OTurn	12.9	12.9
DReb	25.3	27.7
DStl	7.2	7.0
DTurn	16.7	20.6
Reb Marg	5.4	3.7
Stl/G	7.5	8.4
D Stl	5.2	4.7
TO Marg	3.0	4.6

This is the best of the Sweet 16 games. You have the top offense in the nation going against the #2 defense in the nation. The schedule strengths are close to even, not really enough to tip the scale much.

Gonzaga has the edge in outside shooting, but UCLA has an equal edge on the inside, but not by dominating with a post player, but by having tall guards like Jaime Jacquez and Amari Bailey. Of note, UCLA is quite banged up coming into this game. In addition to not having the services of star swing man Jaylen Clark, big man Adem Bona and sharpshooting guard David Singleton are nursing injuries. A team like UCLA can beat Northwestern with a depleted roster, but asking it to beat Gonzaga is too much. We believe that Bona and Singleton will play and not be 100% effective. All it takes is for Drew Timme to have his typical output, and Gonzaga is in the Elite 8.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Charlotte	Eastern Kentucky	3.3
Vanderbilt	UAB	1.2
Utah Valley	Cincinnati	-0.2

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Charlotte	Radford	3.7
Oklahoma St.	North Texas	5.3
Oregon	Wisconsin	5.0
Southern Utah	Eastern Kentucky	4.1

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Monday, March 20, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Indiana St.	Eastern Kentucky	5.7
Southern Utah	Rice	6.3
San Jose St.	Radford	4.3
Charlotte	Milwaukee	6.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 19, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Baylor	Creighton	-0.3
Colorado	Utah Valley	4.7
Connecticut	Saint Mary’s	4.2
Duquesne	Rice	5.5
Eastern Kentucky	Cleveland St.	0.8
Florida Atlantic	Fairleigh Dickinson	18.7
Gonzaga	TCU	4.4
Indiana	Miami (Fla)	1.8
Kansas St.	Kentucky	-0.2
Marquette	Michigan St.	3.2
North Texas	Sam Houston St.	3.4
Oklahoma St.	Eastern Washington	11.5
Oregon	Central Florida	4.6
Stetson	Milwaukee	2.7
Tarleton St.	Radford	1.1
UAB	Morehead St.	16.0
Wisconsin	Liberty	2.9
Xavier	Pittsburgh	5.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Saturday, March 18, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	Maryland	7.7
Charlotte	Western Carolina	6.4
Hofstra	Cincinnati	-1.1
Houston	Auburn	6.3
Indiana St.	USC Upstate	10.7
Kansas	Arkansas	2.7
Missouri	Princeton	0.0
San Diego St.	Furman	6.5
San Jose St.	Southern Indiana	9.4
Southern Utah	North Alabama	8.9
Tennessee	Duke	3.8
Texas	Penn St.	6.8
UCLA	Northwestern	26.7
Vanderbilt	Michigan	0.1