The Pi-Rate Ratings

April 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings 2019 Final Four Preview

PiRate Ratings

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Virginia

120.3

0.0

Auburn

116.8

3.5

Michigan St.

121.2

0.0

Texas Tech

119.7

1.5

 

 

Schedule

All Times Eastern Daylight

Team

Team

TIME (EDT)

TV

LOCATION

Auburn

Virginia

6:09 PM

CBS

Minneapolis

Texas Tech

Michigan St.

8:49 PM

CBS

Minneapolis

 

Bracketnomics

Note–These comparisons are totally unrelated to the PiRate Ratings above.  This system is only used for the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia vs. Auburn

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Virginia

60.22

11.7

30.2

75.0

12.7

15.7

10.6

Auburn

60.67

2.2

31.9

67.8

14.4

21.5

2.3

Strength of schedule is even, so the remaining stats can be weighted equally without handicap.  Virginia has a large advantage in both true shooting % margin and R+T Rating.  The rebounding rates in this game should allow Virginia to overcome the extra turnovers they will commit against Auburn’s defense.  Virginia faced teams with similar defenses this year, committed more turnovers than their norm while not forcing many, and yet still won.  Their losses to Duke came about because the Blue Devils could neutralize their inside muscle.  Auburn cannot do this, especially one big man down.

Prediction: Virginia 66  Auburn 58

 

Michigan St. vs. Texas Tech

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Michigan St.

61.76

13.2

33.6

73.9

16.0

12.9

11.8

Texas Tech

59.64

10.1

27.0

72.3

16.0

20.0

3.6

Michigan State has a slightly stronger strength of schedule, but not so much that the Red Raiders cannot overcome it.  The Spartans’ true shooting % margin is also slightly better, but their R+T rating is considerably better.  Texas Tech would not be given much chance to win this game if it wasn’t for the fact that their biggest strength is Michigan State’s biggest weakness.

All year, the PiRate Ratings have been telling you that Michigan State’s biggest weakness was their ability to hold onto the ball.  Texas Tech made it this far by playing an aggressive defense that has forced turnovers almost as frequently as Auburn.  This gives TTU a chance to win this game.  However, Michigan State has a commanding advantage on the glass in this game.  While this wasn’t Sparty’s best rebounding team, in fact one of its worst under Tom Izzo, but it is still much better than Chris Beard’s club.  Rebounding, especially on the offensive glass was mediocre.

This will be an interesting game, and the team that can force their asset on the other’s liability will win.  While it may be close to a 50-50 tossup, due to these two extremes in the rebounding and turnovers, the winner might win by double digits.  The reason this edition has not been released until Thursday is that it has taken the PiRates a couple of days to determine which way the Bracketnomics point to in this game.  

Prediction:  Michigan State 71  Texas Tech 65

 

 

 

 

 

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