PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, January 11, 2019

Friday, January 11, 2019

Seed List

Seed	Team	League
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Duke	ACC
1	Michigan	Big Ten
1	Texas Tech	Big 12
2	Tennessee	SEC
2	Gonzaga	WCC
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	North Carolina	ACC
3	Houston	AAC
3	Virginia Tech	ACC
3	Kansas	Big 12
3	Kentucky	SEC
4	Buffalo	MAC
4	Nebraska	Big Ten
4	Oklahoma	Big 12
4	Wisconsin	Big Ten
5	NC State	ACC
5	Indiana	Big Ten
5	Iowa St.	Big 12
5	Marquette	Big East
6	Florida St.	ACC
6	Auburn	SEC
6	LSU	SEC
6	Maryland	Big Ten
7	Purdue	Big Ten
7	St. John’s (NY)	Big East
7	Nevada	MWC
7	Ole Miss	SEC
8	Villanova	Big East
8	Mississippi St.	SEC
8	UCF	AAC
8	Louisville	ACC
9	Wofford	SoCon
9	TCU	Big 12
9	Iowa	Big Ten
9	Ohio St.	Big Ten
10	Cincinnati	AAC
10	San Francisco	WCC
10	Florida	SEC
10	North Texas	C-USA
11	Liberty	ASUN
11	Washington	Pac-12
11	Seton Hall	Big East
12	Syracuse	ACC
12	Utah St.	MWC
12	Butler	Big East
12	Texas	Big 12
12	VCU	Atlantic 10
12	Creighton	Big East
12	Kansas St.	Big 12
13	Murray St.	OVC
13	Hofstra	CAA
13	Yale	Ivy League
13	Vermont	America East
14	Texas St.	Sun Belt
14	Radford	Big South
14	New Mexico St.	WAC
14	Loyola Chicago	MVC
15	Northern Ky.	Horizon
15	UC Irvine	Big West
15	South Dakota St.	Summit
15	Lehigh	Patriot
16	Montana	Big Sky
16	Abilene Christian	Southland
16	Rider	MAAC
16	Texas Southern	SWAC
16	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC
16	N.C. A&T	MEAC

 

Last Four In

Butler

Texas

Creighton

Kansas St.

 

Last 4 Byes

Florida

Temple

Seton Hall

Syracuse

 

First 4 Out

Alabama

Minnesota

Arizona

Clemson

 

Next 4 Out

Northwestern

Fresno St.

Saint Louis

Arizona St.

 

Games in Dayton

Butler vs. Kansas St.

Texas vs. Creighton

Rider vs. North Carolina A&T

Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

Changes to PiRate Ratings Bracketology

The former Bracket Gurus have been inconsistent in submitting their bracketology to us, and most of them say they are too busy to send us their reports every week.  Thus, beginning today, what you see is the PiRate Ratings’ own bracketology based on the information we have that says exactly what the NCAA Selection Committee must use as its resources in determining the teams and seeds.  Thus, this is how the PiRate Ratings would vote if the tournament started today.

Now that the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology is in-house, we will be able to update these seeds more than once per week.

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PiRate Ratings–College Football Final 2018-19

Congratulations go to the Clemson Tigers for their outstanding performance last night in their four touchdown victory over Alabama.  With a quarterback that will be back for at least two more seasons, the Tigers must be considered the early favorite to repeat as champions next year and maybe the year after as well.  In the previous decade, the Indianapolis Colts arranged to have their worst ever season at the right time.  The phrase, “Let’s suck for Luck,” was in vogue in the Sycamore State, as the Colts won the rights to the first pick in the NFL Draft.  The new phrase for 2021 might be, “Be Clever and suck for Trevor,” because Trevor Lawrence looks like he could be another all-time NFL great.

Alabama fans know that their team will be back.  When your coach continually recruits the top class or one of the top five year after year, and he employs more coaches by calling them advisers, Alabama, Inc. will continue to return heavy profits.  Of course, Nick Saban will be offered the chance to return to the NFL, but personally we cannot see Saban leaving Alabama off a game like this.  He wants a 15-0 season with 15 double digit wins, and then we can retire and run his Mercedes-Benz Dealership hands-on by recruiting car buyers.

Many of you reading this today might not realize that this was not Alabama’s worst ever showing in a bowl game being played for the National Championship.  There was a worse outcome, and I watched it 47 years ago in the Orange Bowl.

#1 Nebraska, certainly one of the five best college teams ever, thoroughly destroyed #2 Alabama that year 38-6, and the score could have been much worse.  The Cornhuskers scored a touchdown early in the first quarter on a sustained drive, mixing up power runs, option runs, and play-action passes from their wing-I offense and took a quick 7-0 lead.  Alabama’s potent wishbone offense was greatly slowed by Nebraska’s 5-2 defense that closely resembled the All Big 8 Team.

In the last minute of the first quarter, the game was basically decided.  Alabama punted and chose to punt the ball to All-American Johnny Rodgers.  The future Heisman Trophy winner had broken the hearts of Oklahoma with a long punt return that led the Cornhuskers to victory over the Sooners on Thanksgiving Day in the “Game of the Century.”  On this night, Rodgers fielded the punt on the second bounce at his own 23 yard line.  He quickly scampered to his right to avoid two Alabama defenders, and then he faked two more almost out of their shoes before picking up a wall of blockers down the right sideline.  A few seconds later, Nebraska had a two touchdown lead as the first quarter expired.  Two more second quarter touchdowns made it 28-0 at the half, and it was apparent that the number two and number three teams were Big Eight foes Oklahoma and Colorado.  Coach Bob Devaney played his reserves for most of the second half, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 pasting of the 11-0 Crimson Tide.  Coach Bear Bryant called this Nebraska team the greatest of all time, and he admitted that the Cornhuskers basically toyed with his team.

Here are the Final PiRate Ratings for the 2018-19 season

#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Alabama
3	Ohio St.
4	Notre Dame
5	Georgia
6	Oklahoma
7	LSU
8	Michigan
9	Florida
10	Texas A&M
11	Washington
12	Auburn
13	Iowa
14	Washington St.
15	Kentucky
16	Texas
17	Mississippi St.
18	Syracuse
19	Penn St.
20	Stanford
21	Fresno St.
22	Missouri
23	Utah St.
24	West Virginia
25	Utah
26	Central Florida
27	Army
28	Boise St.
29	Northwestern
30	N. Carolina St.
31	Miami
32	S. Carolina
33	Wisconsin
34	Oregon
35	Oklahoma St.
36	Cincinnati
37	Duke
38	Michigan St.
39	Iowa State
40	Virginia
41	Boston College
42	Georgia Tech
43	Pittsburgh
44	T C U
45	Arizona St.
46	Ohio U
47	Appalachian St.
48	Minnesota
49	U A B
50	Wake Forest
51	Purdue
52	California
53	Baylor
54	Texas Tech
55	U S C
56	Vanderbilt
57	Troy
58	BYU
59	Temple
60	Nebraska
61	Kansas St.
62	Florida St.
63	Marshall
64	Ole Miss
65	Indiana
66	Maryland
67	Memphis
68	Virginia Tech
69	Tennessee
70	Buffalo
71	Arizona
72	Georgia Southern
73	Houston
74	Toledo
75	Northern Illinois
76	Nevada
77	Florida Int’l.
78	Tulane
79	Wyoming
80	U C L A
81	N. Texas
82	Colorado
83	Middle Tennessee
84	Miami (O)
85	San Diego St.
86	Eastern Michigan
87	Louisiana Tech
88	Arkansas St.
89	Air Force
90	Florida Atlantic
91	South Florida
92	SMU
93	Western Michigan
94	N. Carolina
95	Kansas
96	Arkansas
97	Navy
98	Southern Miss.
99	Rutgers
100	Illinois
101	UL-Monroe
102	Akron
103	Tulsa
104	Hawaii
105	W. Kentucky
106	Louisiana
107	Colorado St.
108	U N L V
109	Oregon St.
110	Louisville
111	Charlotte
112	New Mexico
113	East Carolina
114	Massachusetts
115	Bowling Green
116	Old Dominion
117	Liberty
118	San Jose St.
119	Ball St.
120	Central Michigan
121	Kent St.
122	Coastal Carolina
123	Georgia St.
124	U T S A
125	South Alabama
126	Texas State
127	N. Mexico St.
128	Rice
129	Connecticut
130	UTEP

Coming Later Today–The PiRate Ratings for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.  

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 29-December 3, 2018

Our Land Sharps have become the 1970’s Boston Red Sox.  Most years during this decade, the Red Sox had a division lead well into multiple seasons only to suffer a disappointing finish and close with a mediocre record or just short of winning the division.  In one year, they lost by a half-game that is obviously the shortest losing margin ever.  In one year, they lost in a one-game playoff.  In another year, they led the division into September only to finish in a second place tie 1 1/2 games out.  Yes, there was 1975, the year Baltimore’s great teams of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s began to fall apart, and a year before the Yankees began their fantastic run.  It was like 1967 all over again, as the rest of the pack fell apart in September.

Our five Land Sharps were in the equivalent of first place in the football season equivalent of the first 120 games.  All five sported winning records with fat returns on investment.  We wrote about how incredible this feat was–that five people at random would contribute to this site and all beat the spread by healthy margins through October.

Ah, but the Autumn winds were definitely Raiders to our Land Sharps’ bank accounts.  As we lampoon the month as “No Fave November, the underdogs began to have their days. Teams that were winning easily and covering deflated spreads began to feel the effects of the long grind.  Teams with nothing to lose began to play their future prospects, especially those that could still play multiple games and take a red shirt under the new rules.  Certain players began to feel the pressure of playing for a division title or stay in contention for the NCAA Playoffs.  Weather began to affect games and lower scores.  All in all, once November football began, the underdogs began covering the spread a tiny bit more than in previous weeks.  Some of this could also have been attributed to the public falling in love with teams that won big in September and October.

Well, it affected our Land Sharps.  Two of the five have performed like the 1977 Chicago Cubs.  If you don’t remember the 1977 Cubs, they were more than 20 games over .500 in the first half of the season and running away with the division, just like the 1969 Cubs.  However, the 1977 squad completely reversed in the second half, losing so many games that they ended the season 81-81, a full 21 games out of first place.

The other three Land Sharps have done a little better, but all five have given away some investment to the mighty Books in November.

We now come to Championship Week.  Except in a couple of cases where teams are playing last-minute replacement games to make up for the September hurricane, the teams playing this week are all top-rated squads.  There is no decisive underdog that can over-perform, and the players will be fighting tooth and nail to their last ounce of energy to win this week.  It is almost like September again, except there are more injuries and players playing while injured to some extent.  We think, or at least we hope the Land Sharps will close with a rush to reclaim their prior financial fame.

Ironically, as our Land Sharps have struggled in November, the PiRate Ratings have been on fire with back-to-back winning weeks.  We will probably jinx ourselves by revealing this, but we have been on a big hot streak with our NFL 10-point Teasers.  In fact, in the last two weeks, we are 7-0, and in the last five weeks, it is 20-7.  Our college picks belong in the sewer, but since we are here for entertainment purposes only, and we know about 65% of you reading this come here for college football, we will continue to issue both college and pro football selections.  Just please take our advice: NEVER wager real currency (or the stuff they pass off as real) on the selections you see made here.  You have some presents to buy for your relatives, so don’t end up having to give them that 10-year old fruitcake (can you really tell the difference between fresh and 10-years old?), because you cannot afford the Isotoner gloves after you lost all the money betting on one of our goofy parlays.

Because this week’s schedule featured a limited schedule, we allowed the Sharps to pick as few as one game up to a maximum of five games.  None chose the easy way out and selected just one or two games.  Our Sharps chose three, four, or five games.

1. Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 38-29-0  56.7%

Return on Investment: +9.1%

California +3 vs. Stanford

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

2. Buckeye Michelle

Season: 32-26-1  55.2%

Return on Investment: +5.8%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Ohio St. -14 vs. Northwestern

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

3. Stewed Meat

Season: 36-31-3  53.7%

Return on Investment: +2.7%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

4. Dean615

Season: 29-27-2  51.8%

Return on Investment: -1.2%

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Georgia +13 1/2 vs. Alabama

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

 

5. Friday Dog 13

Season: 34-33-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.4%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Middle Tennessee -1 1/2 vs. UAB

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE

Moneyline Parlay	2 @ +183
Must Win	Must Lose
Central Florida	Memphis
Boise St.	Fresno St.

 

Moneyline Parlay	3 @ +191
Must Win	Must Lose
Buffalo	Northern Illinois
Virginia Tech	Marshall
Appalachian St.	Louisiana

 

NFL

10-Point Teaser	3-Game Parlay	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Dallas	New Orleans	3	New Orleans
Green Bay	Arizona	4	Green Bay
Baltimore	Atlanta	11	Atlanta
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Cincinnati	15	Cincinnati
L.A. Rams	Detroit	Pk	L.A. Rams
Kansas City	Oakland	4.5	Kansas City
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	N.Y. Jets	19	N.Y. Jets
New England	Minnesota	5.5	New England
Seattle	San Francisco	Pk	Seattle
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Washington	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia
Kansas City	Oakland	24.5	Oakland
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	14.5	N.Y. Giants

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 14

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Friday	November 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mid-American Conference Championship Game @ Buffalo
Buffalo	Northern Illinois	5.9	6.9	7.0
Pac-12 Conference Championship Game @ Santa Clara, CA
Washington	Utah	5.4	4.5	5.4

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX
Oklahoma	Texas	7.2	7.4	7.6
Sun Belt Conference Championship Game @ Appy St.
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	17.8	17.6	18.0
Conference USA Championship Game @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee	UAB	2.3	2.0	2.8
American Athletic Conference Championship Game @ Central FL
Central Florida	Memphis	11.3	10.4	10.8
Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta
Alabama	Georgia	12.8	13.4	13.3
Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ Boise St.
Boise St.	Fresno St.	2.7	3.0	3.2
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC
Clemson	Pittsburgh	30.3	28.7	31.4
Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN
Ohio St.	Northwestern	15.5	15.4	16.0

Other Saturday Games

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Marshall	12.6	8.6	10.7
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	30.9	29.9	30.5
South Carolina	Akron	30.2	28.2	30.4
California	Stanford	-5.2	-5.0	-5.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Iowa St.	Drake	42.7
Liberty	Norfolk St.	26.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4
2	Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3
3	Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2
4	Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4
9	Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
21	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3
22	Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8
23	Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6
24	Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7
25	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
26	S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9
30	Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1
40	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
54	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
55	Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7
68	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
69	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
70	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
71	Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
76	Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3
77	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
78	U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9
79	Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5
85	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0
111	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
112	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
113	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
118	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
119	Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3	8-0	11-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0	1-7	3-8
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5	5-3	8-4
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3	8-0	12-0
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9	5-3	8-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1	6-2	7-5
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6	4-4	5-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0	8-1	11-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6	7-2	9-3
Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7	6-3	7-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	8-1	11-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1	8-1	8-4
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3	7-1	8-4
Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5	6-2	8-3
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9	7-1	9-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3	x	5-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7	7-1	10-2
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8	2-6	4-7
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6	6-2	7-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6	7-1	10-2
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7	7-1	10-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4	7-2	9-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8	5-3	7-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6	4-4	7-4
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3	6-3	9-3
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2	7-1	11-1
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4	4-4	6-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4	8-0	12-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8	7-1	9-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5	5-3	7-5
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
2	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
3	ACC	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top Group of 5

Central Florida will get the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid with a win over Memphis this week in the CUSA Championship Game.  If Memphis pulls off the upset, then UCF could still sneak in depending on how the loss looks.

Should UCF fall by a considerable margin because Mackenzie Milton is out for the season, then Boise State could move above the Golden Knights should the Broncos defeat Fresno State for the second time.

Should Fresno State beat Boise State, and Memphis beat Central Florida, then there could be some issues with the awarding of Bowl Bids.  Because Army doesn’t play Navy until December 8, and the announcement of the bowl bids is December 3, then Army could be excluded even if they blowout Navy by 50 points.  In this instance, Central Florida would probably still get the bid at 11-1.  Had Army defeated Duke at the beginning of the season, then at 11-1 with a loss only to Oklahoma (a game they came close to winning), then the Bowl Committee would have been in a heap of trouble, having to make alternate announcements pending what Army did versus Navy.

At 10-2, Army may still get a chance to play a Power 5 opponent in a bowl game.  Coach Jeff Monken would be a cinch to be offered a Power 5 job if he was not in the Paul Johnson mode.  Monken’s triple option offense is stronger than Georgia Tech’s this year, and his defense is considerably better.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

This week, you will see many of the bowl projection sites beginning to come to agreement on the top bowl games.  No doubt, almost every projection will have Alabama in the Cotton Bowl against either Oklahoma or Ohio State, while Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the Orange Bowl.

We thought about this for a long time Saturday night as Clemson and Alabama continued to dominate.  It looked so much like the Playoffs could be narrowed to two teams.  However, we thought about something.  Georgia is not going to lay over and die for the Crimson Tide to roll over.  The Bulldogs have a bad taste in their mouth from last year, where they could smell the National Championship Trophy in the second half of the title game, before some freshman named Tua came off the bench in the second half and looked like a combination of Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

We have noticed the teams that have given Alabama the most trouble through the Nick Saban years.  These teams have physical defenses and offenses with dual-threat quarterbacks that can act as another running back while still passing like stars.  Think about Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, or DeShaun Watson.  Even Chad Kelly had legs and could take off and run.  These are the teams that gave the Crimson Tide the most trouble in the last decade.

In the last few weeks, Alabama’s defense has been exposed by this read and react style of offense.  The Citadel’s triple option basically embarrassed Alabama in the first half.  Auburn’s spread option offense did some damage, but Jarrett Stidham does not have the legs to motor on the keeper like the QBs that have outscored Alabama to victory.

Here’s the thing.  Just like Alabama last year, Georgia has their not-so-secret weapon sitting on the bench waiting to be this year’s Tua Tagovailoa.  Freshman sensation Justin Fields possesses the same skills as Newton, Manziel, and Watson.  He has the potential to lead Georgia to an upset victory and totally throw the FBS Playoffs into disarray.

What if Georgia beat Alabama?  Assuming Clemson easily dismisses Pittsburgh, then Clemson would be number one, Georgia and Notre Dame would be number two and three in either order, and Alabama would fall to number four.  Ohio State and Oklahoma would be left out.  Forget Central Florida.  Even if Bama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State, and Texas beats Oklahoma, a Georgia team at 11-2 would get into the playoffs before UCF.

If Georgia were to upset Alabama, then four SEC teams would most likely make the NY6 bowls.  The Bulldogs and Tide would make the playoffs.  Florida would most likely make the Peach Bowl, and LSU would probably edge out Penn State and others for the Sugar Bowl.

There are 81 bowl eligible teams as of today.  Virginia Tech is a win over Marshall this weekend from becoming bowl eligible and making it  82.  Liberty can get to 6-6 with a win over Norfolk State, but they have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility as a transition team to FBS once 78 teams became bowl eligible.

If you are a fan of a Mountain West, Mid-American, or Sun Belt Conference team that is 6-6 today, you better cheer hard for Marshall to knock off Virginia Tech.  There are already three teams too many for the bowls, and if the Hokies win, they will jump over any of the Group of 5 teams hoping to land in a bowl.  Teams like Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Wyoming, and Louisiana-Monroe are holding out for a miracle.  At most one of these teams will make it to a bowl, and if Virginia Tech wins this weekend, all four are likely to have empty envelopes.  Eastern Michigan could still top Western Michigan, but the Broncos have a larger fan base than the Eagles.

What you see below is our look at the bowls should Georgia beat Alabama.  You can look at all the others on the Internet to see what it would look like if the status quo remains, but we believe you will want to read this alternative look.

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Memphis	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Tulane	[Army]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Wake Forest]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	TCU
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Western Michigan]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	[San Diego St.]
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Georgia Tech	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Washington St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Notre Dame	Georgia
Orange			Clemson	Alabama
Championship Game			Georgia	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 13

There are a bevy of interesting games with something on the line this week. Playoff games are on the line, bowl eligibility is on the line, and a few coaching jobs are on the line as Rivalry Week returns.
If you are a fan of a 5-6 team this week, you better hope that they win, because there is 0.01% chance or 1 in 10,000 that a bowl will have to take a team that is worse than 6-6. As of today, 71 teams are now bowl eligible. Three games this week will pit teams with identical 5-6 records, so three more are guaranteed to become bowl eligible, bringing the total to 74. There needs to be four more teams that will need one more win, and there are an additional 16 teams that have a chance to do so. The chances that 13 of these 16 teams lose their final game are less than the chances of the San Diego Padres facing the Chicago White Sox in the 2019 World Series.
Below, we take another look at each conference so you can determine which games you want to watch this week, or if you’d rather go shopping on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. You really should spend a few bucks with a locally owned small business this Saturday. We recommend our favorite jewelry artist, Marjorie Miller of Marjorie Miller Designs right here in the Music City at Beautiful Gifts for Her

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	-6.5	-6.0	-6.2
Miami (O)	Ball St.	17.9	17.6	20.4

 

Thursday	November 22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Colorado St.	14.7	14.6	15.4
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	-17.4	-16.1	-18.1

 

Friday	November 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Akron	19.3	19.6	20.6
Cincinnati	East Carolina	17.8	19.3	18.3
Kent St.	Eastern Michigan	-14.7	-15.2	-15.4
Bowling Green	Buffalo	-13.3	-14.5	-14.3
Iowa	Nebraska	17.0	16.3	17.2
Kansas	Texas	-13.8	-13.8	-14.7
Missouri	Arkansas	24.8	25.6	26.8
South Alabama	Coastal Carolina	-0.3	-1.0	-0.6
Toledo	Central Michigan	19.6	18.8	19.5
South Florida	Central Florida	-21.0	-20.0	-21.5
Oregon St.	Oregon	-20.9	-22.8	-22.4
Memphis	Houston	3.1	3.9	3.7
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-0.6	-2.1	-1.0
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-1.0	-0.7	-1.4
Washington St.	Washington	-1.6	-0.4	-2.1

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	6.0	5.0	5.5
Connecticut	Temple	-30.1	-29.9	-31.6
Louisville	Kentucky	-21.4	-20.6	-22.4
Clemson	South Carolina	28.8	27.6	30.1
Michigan St.	Rutgers	29.0	28.0	29.5
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-12.2	-12.3	-12.7
Florida Int’l.	Marshall	-2.1	-1.1	-2.5
Boston College	Syracuse	7.6	6.8	8.0
Ohio St.	Michigan	-3.5	-4.2	-4.3
Northwestern	Illinois	24.9	23.8	26.2
Georgia	Georgia Tech	15.5	14.1	17.1
Duke	Wake Forest	11.7	11.5	12.8
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.3	13.3	14.3
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	-11.6	-11.6	-11.2
Louisiana Tech	Western Kentucky	12.4	11.6	12.4
Rice	Old Dominion	-13.1	-13.6	-14.0
UTEP	Southern Miss.	-13.3	-13.4	-14.0
Liberty	New Mexico St.	11.0	8.6	11.4
Boise St.	Utah St.	3.9	2.2	3.1
Utah	BYU	17.8	15.8	17.6
Appalachian St.	Troy	9.5	10.1	9.6
New Mexico	Wyoming	-8.5	-7.9	-9.0
Middle Tennessee	UAB	-2.1	-2.6	-1.8
California	Colorado	12.9	10.6	12.8
UCLA	Stanford	-11.9	-10.1	-13.9
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	4.3	3.6	4.8
TCU	Oklahoma St.	-2.2	-2.1	-3.7
Florida St.	Florida	-4.9	-4.5	-6.4
Penn St.	Maryland	16.1	14.9	16.3
Baylor	Texas Tech	-7.0	-7.3	-6.2
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	36.9	35.3	37.9
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	11.8	11.5	12.3
Texas A&M	LSU	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7
Indiana	Purdue	-6.6	-6.0	-6.4
Tulane	Navy	6.9	5.5	6.9
UL-Monroe	Louisiana	5.3	3.7	4.6
Tulsa	SMU	-2.9	-2.9	-2.3
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	20.3	19.1	19.9
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	-13.8	-12.8	-15.0
UTSA	North Texas	-22.5	-20.9	-22.5
USC	Notre Dame	-17.3	-16.7	-17.8
Alabama	Auburn	25.4	24.8	25.5
UNLV	Nevada	-13.3	-12.5	-13.4
San Diego St.	Hawaii	20.3	18.8	21.5
Arizona	Arizona St.	-7.2	-7.3	-6.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9
4	Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3
5	Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9
6	Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3
7	Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9
8	Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8
9	Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9
10	Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6
11	L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9
12	Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2
13	Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2
14	West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8
15	Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7
16	Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6
17	Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4
18	Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3
19	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2
20	Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1
21	Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0
22	Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8
23	Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7
24	Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6
25	Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3
26	Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2
27	Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1
28	N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8
29	Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4
30	S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4
31	Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3
32	Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3
33	Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1
34	Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9
35	Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8
36	Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6
37	Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0
38	Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9
39	Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8
40	Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5
41	Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3
42	Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2
43	Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9
44	California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6
45	Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1
46	U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6
47	Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1
48	T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6
49	Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2
50	Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8
51	Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7
52	Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6
53	Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6
54	Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6
55	Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5
56	Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4
57	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
58	Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4
59	Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9
60	Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5
61	Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4
62	Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3
63	BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1
64	Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1
65	Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0
66	Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8
67	N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9
68	Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8
69	U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6
70	Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6
71	U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3
72	Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1
73	Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5
74	Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1
75	Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0
76	N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7
77	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
78	Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2
79	San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0
80	Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9
81	Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8
82	Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4
83	Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2
84	Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1
85	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
86	Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4
87	Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6
88	SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4
89	Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4
90	Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5
91	Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3
92	South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0
94	Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9
95	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7
96	Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3
97	Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2
98	Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0
99	Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9
100	Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9
101	Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2
102	Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0
103	UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0
104	Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9
105	East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5
106	Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2
107	New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5
108	Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0
109	Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9
110	Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3
111	W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7
112	Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5
113	U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3
116	Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8
117	Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7
118	Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5
119	Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0
121	San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0
122	Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0
123	Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8
124	Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1
125	South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9
126	U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8
127	N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6
128	Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6
129	U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6
130	Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2	7-0	10-0
Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2	6-1	7-4
Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5	5-2	9-2
South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9	3-4	7-4
East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5	1-6	3-7
Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6	0-7	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5	4-3	7-4
Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9	5-2	8-3
SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4	4-3	5-6
Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4	4-3	5-6
Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2	1-6	2-9
Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0	2-5	3-8
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	8-0	11-0
Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0	4-3	7-4
N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8	4-3	7-3
Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5	5-2	8-3
Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1	3-5	5-6
Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3	2-5	5-6
Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0	0-8	2-9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6	3-4	6-5
Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3	5-3	7-4
Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3	3-4	7-4
Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6	6-1	7-4
Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1	4-3	7-4
Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4	3-4	4-6
N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9	1-6	2-8
ACC Averages	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8	7-1	10-1
West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8	6-2	8-2
Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3	6-2	8-3
Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1	5-3	6-4
Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8	3-5	6-5
Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9	3-5	5-6
T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6	3-5	5-6
Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8	3-5	5-6
Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1	3-5	5-6
Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2	1-7	3-8
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9	8-0	10-1
Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9	7-1	10-1
Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4	5-3	8-3
Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7	4-4	6-5
Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6	3-5	5-6
Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0	2-6	5-6
Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9	0-8	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2	4-4	7-4
Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3	7-1	7-4
Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1	5-3	7-4
Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3	4-4	5-6
Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4	3-5	4-7
Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6	2-6	5-6
Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9	2-6	4-7
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	3-4	5-6
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	5-2	7-3
Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6	6-1	7-4
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0	6-1	8-3
Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0	2-5	4-7
W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7	1-6	2-9
Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3	3-4	4-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3	7-0	9-2
N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7	4-3	8-3
Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3	5-2	7-4
Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2	3-4	5-5
U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8	2-5	3-8
U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6	1-6	1-10
Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4	0-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9	x	11-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1	x	6-5
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-8
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7	5-2	7-4
Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1	6-1	9-2
Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8	5-2	5-6
Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9	2-5	4-6
Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5	2-5	3-8
Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1	4-3	6-5
Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0	6-1	7-4
Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1	4-3	6-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3	4-3	6-5
Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3	0-7	1-10
Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7	3-4	4-7
MAC Averages	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9	6-1	9-2
Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8	7-0	10-1
Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2	2-5	4-7
Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4	3-4	5-6
New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5	1-6	3-8
Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3	2-5	3-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2	6-1	9-2
San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0	4-3	7-4
Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4	5-2	7-4
U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9	1-6	3-8
Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8	4-3	7-5
San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0	1-6	1-10
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9	6-2	8-3
Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6	7-1	10-1
Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1	4-3	6-4
Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2	4-4	7-4
California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6	3-4	6-4
Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2	1-7	2-9
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7	6-3	8-3
Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9	4-4	6-5
U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6	4-5	5-6
Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4	4-4	5-6
U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6	3-5	3-8
Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5	2-6	5-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3	7-1	10-1
Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6	3-4	7-4
Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4	5-3	8-3
S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4	4-4	6-4
Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0	5-3	8-3
Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6	2-5	5-6
Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8	2-5	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0	7-0	11-0
Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3	3-4	7-4
L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9	5-2	9-2
Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2	3-4	7-4
Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8	4-3	7-4
Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6	1-6	5-6
Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9	0-7	2-9
SEC Averages	114.4	113.2	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8	6-1	8-2
Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5	7-0	9-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7	5-2	8-3
Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0	2-5	5-6
Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9	4-3	7-4
UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0	4-3	6-5
Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9	4-3	6-5
Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1	1-6	3-8
South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9	1-6	2-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.2	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
5	PAC12	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	IND	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
8	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
9	MAC	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

Group of 5 Teams Still in Running for NY6 Bowl

1. Central Florida
2. Utah St.
3. Boise St.
4. Fresno St.
5. Army

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	San Diego St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Arizona]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	[Eastern Michigan]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Syracuse	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Texas Tech
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Miami (Fla.)
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Central Florida
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Standard

American Athletic
UCF vs. USF: Central Florida easily disposed of Cincinnati, and now they must end the regular season with a swooning South Florida team that looks all out of kilter. USF was 7-0 and has now lost four consecutive games. The Bulls play one good half and one bad half in nearly every game, and if this repeats itself, UCF should win by more than 20 points. However, we suspect USF will play its best game of the year, so this game could be closer than expected, especially if USF’s better half is the first half.

Time: Friday, 4:00 PM
TV: ESPN

Memphis vs. Houston: The West Division race is still up for grabs, and it will go to the winner of the Houston-Memphis game at the Liberty Bowl. Houston may have a little bit of dissension after some issues on the sidelines against Tulane last week. Memphis is playing its best ball of the season, and the Tigers enjoy a modicum of home field advantage. This game could have some head coaching implications. Major Applewhite is not a huge favorite in Houston, and a loss plus a bowl loss could put his job in jeopardy. On the other side, Memphis coach Mike Norvell could be on the short list of multiple Power 5 Conference jobs.
Time: Friday, 12:00 PM
TV: ABC

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Tulane vs. Navy, 12 Noon on ESPNU
SMU vs. Tulsa, 3:30 PM on CBSSN

Atlantic Coast
Clemson will play Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game, but there are other reasons to watch the Tigers this week. CU plays rival South Carolina, and this should give us all a chance to see Trevor Lawrence face a tough SEC defense. Somewhere down the road, Clemson might play for a National Championship against an even better SEC defense. In limited action earlier this year Lawrence was 5 of 9 for 99 yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M. South Carolina became bowl eligible against Chattanooga last night, and the Gamecocks added a late replacement game for their hurricane cancellation. They now play Akron next week, so there is a chance to get to 8-4 if they can pull off the big upset in this game. At 8-4, they could move up over Missouri and Auburn in the bowl pecking order.  Clemson vs. South Carolina

Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: ESPN

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida State vs. Florida, 12 PM on ABC
Wake Forest vs. Duke, 12:30 PM on ACCn

Big 12
This conference has multiple games of importance in both the Playoff and bowl picture. Let’s start by explaining how the Conference Championship Game looks.

Oklahoma leads Texas and West Virginia by one game in the standings, but the Sooners have not clinched a spot in the Championship Game. Oklahoma plays at West Virginia this week. Texas visits Kansas.

If Oklahoma wins, they are the #1 seed, and West Virginia falls to 6-3 in the league. If Texas then beats Kansas, it will be a rematch of the Red River Rivalry in Arlington, Texas, as the Longhorns will be 7-2.

If West Virginia beats Oklahoma, and Texas beats Kansas, then the Sooners are eliminated, while West Virginia and Texas play in the title game.

If Texas loses to Kansas in a monumental upset, then no matter what happens in the OU-WVU game, the two will play again the next week for the Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma needs to beat West Virginia and Texas and hope for Northwestern to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game to have any chance at making the Playoffs. There is a minor chance that they could get in if Notre Dame lays an egg at the Coliseum against USC this week, but the way the Trojans are playing, don’t bet on it.

There are three more important games in the Big 12 this week.  Texas Tech plays Baylor at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The winner earns a bowl bid, while the loser plays again next September. If the loser is Texas Tech, there’s a good chance that somebody other than Kliff KIngsbury will be coaching the Red Raiders in 2019. His job is not totally secure unless TTU wins this game and the bowl game.
Oklahoma State is bowl eligible thanks to the upset over West Virginia. The Cowboys close the season against TCU, and the 5-6 Horned Frogs need a win to become bowl eligible. TCU had several near misses, but their defense looked strong in stopping Baylor Saturday.
Kansas State might be playing its final game under the direction of legendary coach Bill Snyder. At 79, there’s a chance that Snyder will retire for good after this season. Kansas State is 5-6 and faces a tough finishing game against Iowa State in Ames. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell might also be leading his Cyclones on the field for the last time. He could easily be gobbled up by a bigger school looking to hire a new coach. Should Urban Meyer step down at Ohio State, a lot of insiders believe that Campbell would be on a very short list in Columbus.

Big 12 Key Game Schedule
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Time: Friday, 8 PM
TV; ESPN

Texas vs. Kansas
Time: Friday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Time: Saturday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.
Time: Saturday, 8 PM
TV: Fox

Kansas St. vs. Iowa St.
Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: FS1

 

Big Ten
Michigan vs. Ohio State: It’s all about the big rivalry game at the Giant Horseshoe. Michigan and Ohio State will meet for the annual grudge match, and the winner wins the East and stays in contention for the Playoffs. The loser most likely would get the consolation prize of a Rose Bowl game. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, which means they are zero for their last eight. In that span, they lose their most important game prior to this one, when they fell by a field goal in 2006. Expect a hard-fought effort on both sides, and the winner just may come out of this game at somewhat less than 100%, giving Northwestern a bit more chance to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Fox

Indiana and Purdue face off in Bloomington in a bowl qualification/elimination game. These may be the two best 5-6 teams in the nation, and the winner will be a tough 6-6 bowl team. Purdue may be playing with some distractions, as it appears as if Coach Jeff Brohm is halfway out the door and headed south to his Alma Mater in Louisville.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe must fall in the favor of Minnesota against Wisconsin if the Golden Gophers are to nab the Big Ten’s ninth bowl bid. UM is 5-6 and extremely inconsistent, sometimes in the same half of games. Wisconsin is coming in for a landing with a stalled engine, so this game should be close and relatively low scoring.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

Maryland has not won a game since D.J. Durkin was officially re-instated and then fired. The Terrapins were 5-3 and looking like a bowl team before the news hit. They have dropped three games in a row and must win at Penn State to become bowl eligible. Penn State is winning on fumes in November. The Nittany Lions’ offense has disappeared. Still, PSU looks like a prohibitive favorite in this game, and they actually still hold a remote chance of earning the final New Year’s Six Bowl bid. A win would almost guarantee them no worse than the Citrus or Outback Bowl games on New Year’s Day. Maryland vs. Penn St.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

Conference USA
CUSA lost any chance of sending a team to the Peach Bowl when UAB coughed up the ball too many times and lost at Texas A&M after coming out even in total yardage. The Blazers have clinched a berth in the CUSA Championship Game, and their contest at Middle Tennessee this week will still be important, because the East Division race is still to be decided. If Middle beats UAB, and Marshall beats Florida International, then Middle and UAB would play again next week in the CUSA Championship Game. If FIU beats Marshall and UAB beats Middle Tennessee, then FIU wins the East Division race.

Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
Time: 3PM, Saturday
TV: Online only at ESPN3

Florida International vs. Marshall
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Stadium and Facebook

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte
Time: Saturday, 6PM
TV: Stadium

Southern Mississippi vs. UTEP
Time: 3 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Independents
Notre Dame can become the first team to secure a spot in the Playoffs by topping USC in Los Angeles. USC will be playing for bowl eligibility as well as Coach Clay Helton’s job security. There might be a couple of NFL head coaches, including former coach Pete Carroll interested in taking the job if it becomes available, but we tend to believe Dino Babers might be the answer if this job opens up. As for the Irish, they are peaking at the right time. A double-digit win should leave Notre Dame in the 3-slot with a trip to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson the most likely scenario.  Notre Dame vs. USC

Time: 8 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

 

Mid-American
The MAC Championship Game will pit Buffalo and Northern Illinois unless the unthinkable happens, and the Bulls lose to a weak Bowling Green team. Should Buffalo lose, then Miami of Ohio has a chance to do the unthinkable for the second time in three years if they beat Ball St. Miami began 2016 at 0-6 and then won six games in a row to come from last to first and make a bowl game. This year the Red Hawks were 1-4 and then 3-6 before winning back-to-back games over favored Ohio and Northern Illinois teams. Ohio can only win the division if Buffalo and Miami both lose.
In the West, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan all have six wins and are bowl eligible, but there is little chance that all three will be invited to bowls. At least one of these three will miss out, so, it is important to get that seventh win this week.

Key MAC Games Schedule

Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPNU

Miami (O) vs. Ball St.
Time: 7PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPN+

Ohio U vs. Akron
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: CBSSN
Note: Akron is technically still in the running for bowl eligibility at 4-6, but the Zips must beat Ohio and then South Carolina, so we have eliminated them from the bowl team possibles.

Eastern Michigan vs. Kent St.
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online

Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Time: 7 PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPNU

Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online
Mountain West
Fresno State clinched a spot in the conference championship game and will face the winner of the Boise State-Utah State game. Utah State is playing for more than just a spot in the MWC Championship Game. They are the team on-deck should Central Florida fall to USF or in the AAC Championship Game. The Aggies could sneak into the Fiesta Bowl with wins over Boise State and Fresno State and a loss by UCF.

Boise State-Utah St.
Time: 10:15 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN

Wyoming is 5-6 and needs a win over New Mexico to become bowl eligible. Even at 6-6, the Cowboys have only a slim chance to earn a bowl bid.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: MWCn
Pac-12
Both division races will be decided this week. In the North Division race, it comes down to the Apple Cup game between Washington and Washington St. Washington State has not won the Apple Cup since Mike Leach’s first year in the Palouse. UW has won the last five years by better than three touchdowns per game. An impressive win over Washington combined with a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game could bring the Playoffs into view for WSU if Northwestern won the Big Ten Championship Game and Oklahoma did not win the Big 12 Championship.  Washington State vs. Washington

Time: 8:30 PM, Friday
TV: Fox

The South Division comes down to Utah or Arizona State. Utah has already finished their conference slate, and their game against BYU is strictly for bragging rights in the Beehive State. The Arizona State-Arizona game is the important one. If the Sun Devils win, then Coach Herm Edwards will force all those pundits to eat crow when they called his hiring a farce. ASU would win the South with a win over their rival. Arizona has a lot to play for as well. The Wildcats are 5-6 and must win to become bowl eligible, where they most likely would be shipped east as an at-large team for a bowl needing to fill a spot.

Arizona-Arizona State
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: FS1

Colorado was 5-0, and now the Buffaloes are 5-6. Coach Mike MacIntyre is on a hot seat in snowy Boulder, and CU must venture to smoky Berkeley to face a hot Cal team that got an unexpected week off last week. CU better hope that Cal is looking forward to the Stanford makeup game the following week and overlooks the Buffs, because CU hasn’t got much left in the tank at this point.  Colorado vs. California

Time: 7PM, Saturday
TV: Pac-12
Southeastern
Alabama and Georgia will meet in the next chapter of greatness in the SEC Championship Game next week, but both teams must not overlook their arch-rivals this week, both of whom come into this game in peak performance.

Alabama should have little problem with Auburn, but the Tide showed some vulnerabilities that Auburn, and then Georgia, and possibly Clemson can attack. By saying “vulnerabilities,” we refer to something similar to the 1927 New York Yankees being a little weak at third base with Jumping Joe Dugan. Auburn last beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 2010, but that team has Cam Newton at quarterback and still only won by a point.

Alabama vs. Auburn
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: CBS

Georgia cannot afford a loss to Georgia Tech, as the Bulldogs might not make the playoffs even if they subsequently beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Tech has made a big turnaround since starting the season 1-3. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall has a chance to reach 1,000 rushing yards with a good game here and another in the bowl game.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: SECn

Vanderbilt and Tennessee face off in Nashville with a bowl game going to the winner and the end of the line coming for the loser. Tennessee needs quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to return from a head and neck injury suffered Saturday against Missouri. Guarantano is worth more than a touchdown to the Vols compared to backup Keller Chryst. The Vols also have concerns at wideout where Marquez Callaway also was injured against Missouri. Vanderbilt has some injury concerns at quarterback as well, but it is their number two guy that will probably miss this game. Should anything happen to Kyle Shurmur, then the Commodores would be forced to put a true freshman with zero game experience into the most important game of their season. Vandy coach Derek Mason could receive some feelers from other job openings if he can guide the Commodores to their second bowl in three years. He was courted by California last year, and a possible opening or two in the Pac-12 could attract him.  Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Time: 4 PM, Saturday
TV: SECn

Sun Belt
Half of the league still holds SBC Championship Game aspirations. In the East, Troy plays Appalachian State, and the winner takes the division title and hosts the inaugural SBC Championship Game. The Mountaineers host this game and have not lost a conference game at home in more than three years. These two teams did not play each other last year when they tied for first, and the last two times they played, the games came down to the final minute.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

The West Division is currently log-jammed with three teams tied for first at 4-3. Louisiana holds the trump card in this three-way race. If the Ragin’ Cajuns defeat rival UL-Monroe, they will win the division title and play in the league title game. If UL-Monroe beats Louisiana, then Arkansas State would get in if the Red Wolves beat Texas State. If UL-Monroe wins and Arkansas State loses, then the Warhawks would win the division title outright.
Louisiana vs. UL-Monroe
Time: 3 PM ,Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Time: 4PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN3

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Syracuse	Louisville	10.5	Syracuse
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	1.5	Texas A&M
Kansas St.	Kansas	22	Kansas

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
West Virginia	TCU	1.5	WVU
Eastern Michigan	Akron	3	EMU
Duke	North Carolina	Pk	Duke

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arizona St.	UCLA	2.5	Arizona St.
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	9.5	Oklahoma
Purdue	Minnesota	2.5	Purdue

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulane	East Carolina	3.5	Tulane
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	10	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Auburn	24.5	Auburn

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cinciannati	East Carolina	2.5	Cincinnati
Texas Tech	Texas	8.5	Texas
UAB	Southern Miss.	2.5	UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	4	NC St.
Florida	South Carolina	20	S. Car.
BYU	Massachusetts	27	UMass
Troy	Georgia Southern	14.5	Ga. Southern

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Kentucky	7	Kentucky
Colorado	Washington St.	7	Washington St.
Louisiana	Georgia St.	1	Louisiana
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	7.5	UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win	Must Lose
Ohio U	Miami (O)
Northern Illinois	Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win	Must Lose
South Carolina	Florida
Kansas	Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Chicago	6.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Arizona	3.5	Kansas City
Tennessee	New England	6.5	New England
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10	Indianapolis

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	L.A. Chargers	3	L.A. Chargers
Miami	Green Bay	3	Green Bay
Seattle	L.A. Rams	3	L.A. Rams
Dallas	Philadelphia	6.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	31.5	Over
Cincinnati	New Orleans	41	Over
Cleveland	Atlanta	37.5	Over
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	24	Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 9

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Alabama	Troy	-11.2	-10.6	-11.9

 

Thursday	October 25
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Toledo	1.0	1.6	2.2
Ohio U	Ball St.	14.0	13.0	14.9
Georgia Southern	Appalachian St.	-8.3	-8.3	-9.2
Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech	3.9	4.1	4.0
West Virginia	Baylor	12.4	13.2	11.7

 

Friday	October 26
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Miami (Fla.)	1.5	0.3	1.4
Minnesota	Indiana	3.6	3.6	3.3
UCLA	Utah	-13.9	-12.4	-17.0
Colorado St.	Wyoming	-8.0	-7.1	-7.6
Florida Atlantic	Louisiana Tech	5.3	3.7	4.6

 

Saturday	October 27
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Old Dominion	Middle Tennessee	-6.5	-4.5	-7.7
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	-0.5	-1.6	-1.3
Virginia	North Carolina	10.4	11.6	10.3
Akron	Central Michigan	9.6	8.5	9.7
Pittsburgh	Duke	-8.1	-6.9	-8.2
Maryland	Illinois	16.4	15.5	16.5
Louisville	Wake Forest	-3.8	-1.6	-2.4
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-4.3	-3.6	-4.2
Eastern Michigan	Army	-6.0	-5.2	-5.6
Charlotte	Southern Miss.	-4.4	-5.3	-4.5
Kansas	TCU	-10.2	-10.4	-10.7
Connecticut	Massachusetts	-3.1	-4.6	-4.9
Georgia St.	Coastal Carolina	3.0	2.5	3.1
Utah St.	New Mexico	23.4	23.3	24.6
Colorado	Oregon St.	23.7	27.2	26.6
UTEP	UAB	-20.5	-19.9	-21.7
BYU	Northern Illinois	8.2	7.9	9.0
Nevada	San Diego St.	-3.7	-3.7	-4.2
Stanford	Washington St.	7.5	5.9	8.1
USC	Arizona St.	4.8	5.0	4.9
California	Washington	-13.4	-13.9	-15.0
Florida (n)	Georgia	-13.2	-11.7	-13.1
San Jose St.	UNLV	-3.9	-4.5	-5.8
Tulsa	Tulane	-0.4	-1.3	0.6
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	6.9	6.0	7.3
Missouri	Kentucky	5.0	4.5	6.4
South Carolina	Tennessee	16.3	14.7	16.4
Oklahoma St.	Texas	-1.1	-1.6	-0.9
North Texas	Rice	34.8	34.6	37.3
Houston	South Florida	10.0	9.0	10.7
Penn St.	Iowa	7.0	6.2	7.2
Michigan St.	Purdue	5.9	5.0	5.1
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	-6.4	-7.3	-6.2
SMU	Cincinnati	-2.6	-4.6	-3.8
Arkansas	Vanderbilt	2.9	0.2	1.8
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	19.6	19.7	20.8
Louisiana	Arkansas St.	-2.4	-1.6	-2.8
Texas St.	New Mexico St.	1.2	2.2	1.0
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	4.8	4.4	5.6
Air Force	Boise St.	-11.6	-10.4	-11.6
Florida St.	Clemson	-23.9	-22.0	-24.9
Notre Dame	Navy	36.6	31.7	36.0
Arizona	Oregon	-8.6	-10.2	-9.1
Fresno St.	Hawaii	35.5	33.0	37.0

 

FBS vs.	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Nebraska	Bethune-Cookman	36.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

The PiRate Ratings are predictive and not meant to rank teams on what they have done to date.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.6	140.0
2	Clemson	135.5	132.8	136.1	134.8
3	Georgia	128.1	125.0	128.9	127.3
4	Michigan	126.6	125.4	127.2	126.4
5	Notre Dame	124.8	122.0	123.8	123.5
6	Ohio St.	123.2	121.2	123.3	122.6
7	Washington	122.8	120.9	123.9	122.5
8	Oklahoma	121.2	119.9	121.5	120.9
9	Penn St.	121.0	118.4	121.0	120.1
10	L S U	119.8	119.4	121.1	120.1
11	Mississippi St.	118.4	116.1	119.0	117.9
12	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
13	Missouri	116.4	114.9	117.6	116.3
14	Utah	116.3	114.6	117.1	116.0
15	Michigan St.	116.9	114.7	116.2	116.0
16	Miami	116.2	114.8	115.7	115.6
17	Auburn	115.2	114.0	116.8	115.3
18	Wisconsin	115.9	113.4	115.4	114.9
19	Stanford	115.6	113.1	115.8	114.8
20	Florida	114.9	113.3	115.8	114.6
21	Central Florida	114.2	114.4	114.5	114.4
22	Texas A&M	114.5	113.2	114.7	114.1
23	Kentucky	114.4	113.4	114.2	114.0
24	Boston College	114.7	112.1	114.1	113.7
25	Purdue	114.1	112.7	114.1	113.6
26	Texas	113.8	112.4	113.3	113.1
27	Iowa State	113.1	111.5	112.9	112.5
28	N. Carolina St.	112.6	112.1	112.4	112.4
29	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
30	Oregon	112.2	112.0	112.8	112.3
31	Duke	112.9	110.9	112.3	112.1
32	Virginia Tech	112.5	111.5	112.1	112.0
33	West Virginia	112.7	111.7	111.8	112.0
34	S. Carolina	112.5	111.3	112.1	112.0
35	Georgia Tech	111.5	110.4	111.1	111.0
36	Washington St.	111.1	110.2	110.7	110.7
37	Texas Tech	111.3	110.1	110.4	110.6
38	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.8	109.5
39	T C U	110.3	109.1	108.9	109.4
40	Oklahoma St.	109.7	107.8	109.4	108.9
41	U S C	109.5	108.1	109.1	108.9
42	Northwestern	109.1	107.4	108.7	108.4
43	Utah St.	107.6	108.8	108.8	108.4
44	Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.1	108.3
45	Florida St.	108.6	107.8	108.2	108.2
46	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
47	Arizona St.	107.7	106.2	107.1	107.0
48	California	106.4	104.0	105.9	105.4
49	Colorado	104.3	105.3	105.4	105.0
50	Army	103.9	104.6	104.1	104.2
51	Kansas St.	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8
52	Maryland	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8
53	Houston	103.2	104.0	103.7	103.6
54	Ole Miss	103.3	102.8	103.6	103.2
55	Baylor	103.3	101.5	103.0	102.6
56	Temple	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4
57	Memphis	100.8	102.3	101.6	101.6
58	Appalachian St.	100.4	102.2	102.0	101.5
59	Pittsburgh	101.7	101.0	101.1	101.3
60	Vanderbilt	101.0	101.2	101.1	101.1
61	Wake Forest	102.3	100.1	100.1	100.8
62	BYU	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.7
63	San Diego St.	100.0	100.1	100.6	100.2
64	N. Texas	99.1	101.5	99.9	100.1
65	Arizona	100.6	98.9	100.7	100.0
66	Buffalo	99.0	101.0	100.1	100.0
67	Minnesota	100.5	99.4	100.0	100.0
68	N. Carolina	100.2	99.3	99.8	99.8
69	Arkansas	101.0	98.4	99.9	99.8
70	Nebraska	100.6	99.3	99.2	99.7
71	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
72	Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.7	99.2
73	Cincinnati	98.4	100.0	98.8	99.0
74	U C L A	99.5	99.2	97.1	98.6
75	U A B	95.7	98.3	96.6	96.9
76	South Florida	96.2	98.0	96.0	96.7
77	Marshall	95.1	97.7	96.2	96.4
78	Kansas	97.1	95.6	95.2	96.0
79	Toledo	95.5	96.7	95.3	95.8
80	Eastern Michigan	94.9	96.4	95.5	95.6
81	Florida Atlantic	95.2	96.0	95.6	95.6
82	Northern Illinois	95.2	95.9	95.0	95.4
83	Air Force	95.1	95.7	95.2	95.3
84	Louisville	95.5	95.5	94.7	95.2
85	Miami (O)	93.8	95.5	96.1	95.1
86	Ohio U	94.1	95.3	94.8	94.7
87	Western Michigan	93.5	95.2	94.5	94.4
88	Wyoming	94.5	94.5	94.1	94.3
89	Louisiana Tech	92.9	95.3	94.0	94.0
90	Nevada	93.3	93.3	93.4	93.3
91	Tulane	93.1	93.4	92.7	93.1
92	SMU	92.8	92.3	92.0	92.4
93	Middle Tennessee	91.3	92.7	92.2	92.1
94	Navy	91.2	93.3	90.7	91.8
95	Troy	90.8	92.1	92.1	91.7
96	Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.2	89.8	90.8
97	Illinois	91.3	90.7	90.2	90.7
98	Akron	90.1	91.3	90.3	90.6
99	Tulsa	90.3	89.6	90.8	90.2
100	Georgia Southern	89.1	90.9	89.8	89.9
101	Arkansas St.	87.0	88.4	88.5	88.0
102	New Mexico	87.2	88.5	87.1	87.6
103	Southern Miss.	84.4	87.6	85.0	85.7
104	Rutgers	85.9	84.8	84.2	85.0
105	Colorado St.	84.5	85.3	84.4	84.7
106	U N L V	83.4	84.8	83.7	84.0
107	Central Michigan	83.0	85.3	83.2	83.8
108	Ball St.	83.1	85.3	82.9	83.8
109	Old Dominion	82.3	85.7	82.0	83.4
110	Louisiana	82.1	84.3	83.3	83.2
111	East Carolina	83.2	82.9	82.6	82.9
112	UL-Monroe	82.0	82.3	82.4	82.3
113	Oregon St.	83.6	81.1	81.7	82.1
114	W. Kentucky	80.4	83.4	81.1	81.6
115	Liberty	81.4	80.6	81.6	81.2
116	Hawaii	81.0	82.7	79.9	81.2
117	Massachusetts	80.3	82.2	81.0	81.2
118	Georgia St.	78.9	80.8	79.5	79.7
119	Coastal Carolina	78.3	80.8	78.9	79.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.9	78.6	79.1
121	Bowling Green	78.7	79.0	78.7	78.8
122	U T S A	77.2	81.2	77.8	78.8
123	Charlotte	77.5	79.9	78.0	78.5
124	South Alabama	76.6	78.5	77.2	77.4
125	San Jose St.	77.0	77.8	75.4	76.7
126	Connecticut	75.2	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.7	75.9	72.5	73.7
128	N. Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5
129	Texas State	71.6	74.4	71.5	72.5
130	Rice	66.2	68.8	64.6	66.6

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.2	114.4	114.5	114.4	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.4	100.0	98.8	99.0	2-1	6-1
South Florida	96.2	98.0	96.0	96.7	3-0	7-0
East Carolina	83.2	82.9	82.6	82.9	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.2	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	103.2	104.0	103.7	103.6	3-0	6-1
Memphis	100.8	102.3	101.6	101.6	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.1	93.4	92.7	93.1	1-2	2-5
SMU	92.8	92.3	92.0	92.4	2-1	3-4
Navy	91.2	93.3	90.7	91.8	1-3	2-5
Tulsa	90.3	89.6	90.8	90.2	0-3	1-6
AAC Averages	95.1	95.7	95.0	95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.5	132.8	136.1	134.8	4-0	7-0
Boston College	114.7	112.1	114.1	113.7	2-1	5-2
N. Carolina St.	112.6	112.1	112.4	112.4	1-1	5-1
Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.1	108.3	2-2	5-2
Florida St.	108.6	107.8	108.2	108.2	2-3	4-3
Wake Forest	102.3	100.1	100.1	100.8	0-3	3-4
Louisville	95.5	95.5	94.7	95.2	0-4	2-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	116.2	114.8	115.7	115.6	2-1	5-2
Duke	112.9	110.9	112.3	112.1	1-2	5-2
Virginia Tech	112.5	111.5	112.1	112.0	3-0	4-2
Georgia Tech	111.5	110.4	111.1	111.0	1-3	3-4
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	3-1	5-2
Pittsburgh	101.7	101.0	101.1	101.3	2-1	3-4
N. Carolina	100.2	99.3	99.8	99.8	1-3	1-5
ACC Averages	110.1	108.9	109.5	109.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.2	119.9	121.5	120.9	3-1	6-1
Texas	113.8	112.4	113.3	113.1	4-0	6-1
Iowa State	113.1	111.5	112.9	112.5	2-2	3-3
West Virginia	112.7	111.7	111.8	112.0	3-1	5-1
Texas Tech	111.3	110.1	110.4	110.6	3-1	5-2
T C U	110.3	109.1	108.9	109.4	1-3	3-4
Oklahoma St.	109.7	107.8	109.4	108.9	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8	1-3	3-4
Baylor	103.3	101.5	103.0	102.6	2-2	4-3
Kansas	97.1	95.6	95.2	96.0	0-4	2-5
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.6	125.4	127.2	126.4	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.2	121.2	123.3	122.6	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	121.0	118.4	121.0	120.1	2-2	5-2
Michigan St.	116.9	114.7	116.2	116.0	3-2	4-3
Maryland	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8	2-2	4-3
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-4	4-4
Rutgers	85.9	84.8	84.2	85.0	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-1	6-1
Wisconsin	115.9	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	5-2
Purdue	114.1	112.7	114.1	113.6	3-1	4-3
Northwestern	109.1	107.4	108.7	108.4	4-1	4-3
Minnesota	100.5	99.4	100.0	100.0	0-4	3-4
Nebraska	100.6	99.3	99.2	99.7	1-4	1-6
Illinois	91.3	90.7	90.2	90.7	1-3	3-4
Big Ten Averages	109.0	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.1	97.7	96.2	96.4	3-1	5-2
Florida Atlantic	95.2	96.0	95.6	95.6	1-2	3-4
Middle Tennessee	91.3	92.7	92.2	92.1	3-1	4-3
Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.2	89.8	90.8	3-0	5-2
Old Dominion	82.3	85.7	82.0	83.4	1-4	2-6
W. Kentucky	80.4	83.4	81.1	81.6	0-3	1-6
Charlotte	77.5	79.9	78.0	78.5	2-2	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.1	101.5	99.9	100.1	2-2	6-2
U A B	95.7	98.3	96.6	96.9	4-0	6-1
Louisiana Tech	92.9	95.3	94.0	94.0	3-1	5-2
Southern Miss.	84.4	87.6	85.0	85.7	2-1	3-3
U T S A	77.2	81.2	77.8	78.8	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.7	75.9	72.5	73.7	0-3	0-7
Rice	66.2	68.8	64.6	66.6	0-4	1-7
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.8	122.0	123.8	123.5	x	7-0
Army	103.9	104.6	104.1	104.2	x	5-2
BYU	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.7	x	4-3
Liberty	81.4	80.6	81.6	81.2	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.3	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	2-6
N. Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5	x	2-6
Indep. Averages	93.9	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.0	101.0	100.1	100.0	4-0	7-1
Miami (O)	93.8	95.5	96.1	95.1	3-1	3-5
Ohio U	94.1	95.3	94.8	94.7	2-1	4-3
Akron	90.1	91.3	90.3	90.6	1-2	3-3
Kent St.	78.7	79.9	78.6	79.1	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	78.7	79.0	78.7	78.8	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	95.5	96.7	95.3	95.8	1-2	3-4
Eastern Michigan	94.9	96.4	95.5	95.6	2-3	4-4
Northern Illinois	95.2	95.9	95.0	95.4	4-0	4-3
Western Michigan	93.5	95.2	94.5	94.4	4-0	6-2
Central Michigan	83.0	85.3	83.2	83.8	0-4	1-7
Ball St.	83.1	85.3	82.9	83.8	2-2	3-5
MAC Averages	90.0	91.4	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.8	109.5	3-1	5-2
Utah St.	107.6	108.8	108.8	108.4	3-0	6-1
Air Force	95.1	95.7	95.2	95.3	1-3	3-4
Wyoming	94.5	94.5	94.1	94.3	0-4	2-6
New Mexico	87.2	88.5	87.1	87.6	1-2	3-4
Colorado St.	84.5	85.3	84.4	84.7	2-2	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	3-0	6-1
San Diego St.	100.0	100.1	100.6	100.2	3-0	6-1
Nevada	93.3	93.3	93.4	93.3	2-2	4-4
U N L V	83.4	84.8	83.7	84.0	0-3	2-5
Hawaii	81.0	82.7	79.9	81.2	3-1	6-3
San Jose St.	77.0	77.8	75.4	76.7	0-3	0-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.8	120.9	123.9	122.5	4-1	6-2
Stanford	115.6	113.1	115.8	114.8	3-1	5-2
Oregon	112.2	112.0	112.8	112.3	2-2	5-2
Washington St.	111.1	110.2	110.7	110.7	3-1	6-1
California	106.4	104.0	105.9	105.4	1-3	4-3
Oregon St.	83.6	81.1	81.7	82.1	0-4	1-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.3	114.6	117.1	116.0	3-2	5-2
U S C	109.5	108.1	109.1	108.9	3-2	4-3
Arizona St.	107.7	106.2	107.1	107.0	1-3	3-4
Colorado	104.3	105.3	105.4	105.0	2-2	5-2
Arizona	100.6	98.9	100.7	100.0	2-3	3-5
U C L A	99.5	99.2	97.1	98.6	2-2	2-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.1	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.1	125.0	128.9	127.3	4-1	6-1
Missouri	116.4	114.9	117.6	116.3	0-3	4-3
Florida	114.9	113.3	115.8	114.6	4-1	6-1
Kentucky	114.4	113.4	114.2	114.0	4-1	6-1
S. Carolina	112.5	111.3	112.1	112.0	2-3	3-3
Vanderbilt	101.0	101.2	101.1	101.1	0-4	3-5
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.7	99.2	1-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.6	140.0	5-0	8-0
L S U	119.8	119.4	121.1	120.1	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	118.4	116.1	119.0	117.9	1-3	4-3
Auburn	115.2	114.0	116.8	115.3	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	114.5	113.2	114.7	114.1	3-1	5-2
Ole Miss	103.3	102.8	103.6	103.2	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	101.0	98.4	99.9	99.8	0-4	2-6
SEC Averages	114.2	112.9	114.6	113.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	100.4	102.2	102.0	101.5	3-0	5-1
Troy	90.8	92.1	92.1	91.7	3-0	5-2
Georgia Southern	89.1	90.9	89.8	89.9	3-0	6-1
Georgia St.	78.9	80.8	79.5	79.7	1-2	2-5
Coastal Carolina	78.3	80.8	78.9	79.3	1-2	4-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.0	88.4	88.5	88.0	1-2	4-3
Louisiana	82.1	84.3	83.3	83.2	1-2	3-4
UL-Monroe	82.0	82.3	82.4	82.3	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.6	78.5	77.2	77.4	1-2	2-5
Texas State	71.6	74.4	71.5	72.5	0-4	1-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.7	85.5	84.5	84.6

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.2	112.9	114.6	113.9
2	ACC	110.1	108.9	109.5	109.5
3	B12	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.0	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.5	106.1	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	95.1	95.7	95.0	95.3
7	IND	93.9	94.2	94.1	94.1
8	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
9	MAC	90.0	91.4	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.7	85.5	84.5	84.6

Top 5 Group of 5

1	Central Florida
2	South Florida
3	Fresno St.
4	San Diego St.
5	Houston

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Utah St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	UL-Monroe
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	[Middle Tennessee]	[Coastal Carolina]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Colorado]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	North Texas	[BYU]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Toledo]	Indiana
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Duke	[Troy]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Utah
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Purdue	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Iowa	Fresno St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Texas
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Key Games This Week

There may not be as many marquee games this week as there were last week, but because the season is now past the halfway mark, regular games begin to have more meaning as teams with no championship hopes look to secure bowl bids.

There are a number of games where the winner might greatly improve bowl chances and that could be bowl elimination games for the loser.  Let’s take a quick look at some excellent games on this week’s schedule.

First, on Thursday night, you get five different games, and there is no World Series game, as the teams will travel across the land that day.

Thursday

Western Michigan vs. Toledo: The Broncos are now the favorite to win the West Division and maybe run the table the rest of the way, while Toledo is looking like it could be team #78 out of 78 bowl teams.  The MAC looks like it will have six bowl eligible teams, but five will only get bowl bids.  Toledo and Ohio may be competing for that fifth spot.

Ohio U vs. Ball St.: This is the other half of the MAC equation.  If the Bobcats falter in this game, then they are looking at 5-7.  It’s a must-win game for Ball St., but the schedule does not give them enough winnable games in November to recover from 3-5 to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian St.: The Sun Belt East Division title may be decided Thursday night.  After trying the more conventional style of play with total failure, GSU has gone back to what worked for them for many years–the spread triple option, and it is working.  Appy State enters this game looking like a team that still holds out hope for a Peach Bowl bid if UCF, USF, Houston, and Fresno State lose games down the stretch and they run the table.  This may be the best game of the night and one you will want to watch.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is running out of time to get to six wins with a closing stretch of games against Miami, Virginia, and Georgia.  If Paul Johnson’s team is to finish 3-2, it almost has to include an upset win here.  Virginia Tech finishes with four home games in their final five, and the Hokies have the inside track to the Coastal Division flag.

West Virginia vs. Baylor: West Virginia’s playoff chances probably ended with the loss to Iowa St., but if the Mountaineers run the table, a Sugar Bowl bid is likely their reward.  Baylor needs two wins in their final five games to return to a bowl after a brief absence, and to pull off the trick, the Bears are going to have to upset two teams, because they will be underdogs in all five games.

Friday

Boston College vs. Miami (Fla.): Both teams are still alive for the Camping World bid, but most likely, these two are competing for one of the #3 priority bowls.

Minnesota vs. Indiana: This is a pure bowl elimination game.  The winner stays alive, and the loser is done.

UCLA vs. Utah: The Bruins have won back-to-back games after starting 0-5.  It’s been done before, where a team loses multiple games to start the season and comes back to earn a bowl bid.  A couple years ago, Miami of Ohio started 0-6 and finished 6-6.  Can Chip Kelly work his magic?  If UCLA beats Utah, the Bruins would move into a first place tie in the Pac-12 South.  Of course, if Utah wins, the Utes make a big move forward toward winning the South.  Stay up late and watch this game.

Saturday

Syracuse vs. North Carolina St: After the Wolf Pack’s drubbing at the hands of Clemson, they have no room for error left in the remaining part of their schedule if they want to contend for a New Year’s Six Bowl game.  Not having the West Virginia game on their schedule, they must run the table and finish 11-1.  Syracuse is one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.  This game should be interesting.

Pittsburgh vs. Duke: Pitt has to win this game, or it’s no bowl game for the Panthers in 2018.  Duke is out of the ACC Coastal Division title race, but they need just one more win to become bowl eligible.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin: Four of the seven teams in the Big Ten West Division have one conference loss, and these are two of them.  Neither team is playing as well as predicted this year, as they tend to win ugly.  Northwestern has been forced to come from behind two weeks in a row, including their most previous game against Rutgers.  This was the closest game for the Badgers last year when they ran the table to the Big Ten Championship Game, and it should be close and low-scoring this year.

Eastern Michigan vs. Army: What?  You say this game is a nothing game?  Think again.  These are two teams that will still be playing after December 15.  Army has a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 1996.  EMU needs to win three more games to clinch its second winning season in the last three years.  Expect the scoreboard to get a lot of action in this one.

Nevada vs. San Diego St.: San Diego State barely beat winless San Jose State, while Nevada won big at Hawaii.  This game looks more like a tossup now than it did a couple weeks ago.  SDSU is still in the Mountain West West Division race with Fresno St., but the Aztecs are looking like a runner-up at the moment.

Stanford vs. Washington St.: The Pirate is not a PiRate, but Mike Leach has done an amazing job in Pullman.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Cougars, but after beating Oregon, Washington State is a co-favorite to win the Pac-12 North.  One of the other two co-favorites is their opponent Saturday, and this game will be played on the Farm, where Stanford rarely loses these days.  The winner is in great shape to become the North Division representative in the conference title game.

California vs. Washington: This is an excellent opportunity for the Bears to pick up a statement win at home.  Washington has not been the team the so-called experts thought they would be, and their chances to win the North Division title are no better than their arch-rival’s, and Stanford’s.  A Cal upset comes close to guaranteeing the Golden Bears a 6-6 season and bowl bid.

Florida vs. Georgia: The winner becomes the heavy favorite to get the chance to be embarrassed by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Both teams had an open date to prepare for this game, and both teams’ coaching staffs can prepare excellent game plans.  Expect this game to be low scoring, and the winner may not emerge until the final five to seven minutes.  The winner is the leading contender for the Sugar Bowl, while the loser could still nab a Peach Bowl bid.

Mississippi St. vs. Texas A&M: Texas A&M has lost to Clemson and Alabama, so their 5-2 record is deceiving.  Jimbo Fisher has done an incredible job in his first year at A&M, and if he can lead his team to a road victory, the Aggies might become the favorite to be number two overall in this league and even get into the discussion for a Sugar Bowl bid.

Missouri vs. Kentucky: Kentucky’s incredible 5-0 start hit a snag when the Wildcats’ one-dimensional offense could do nothing against Texas A&M.  Then, it continued to sputter against a Vanderbilt team that is 0-4 in conference play.  Missouri’s defense won’t be able to shut down the Wildcats’ offense, but they still may be able to outscore the ‘Cats and end Kentucky’s chances of winning the SEC East.  Missouri is most likely looking at a Liberty or Music City Bowl bid unless they run the table and finish 9-3.

Oklahoma St. vs. Texas: 2005 was 13 seasons ago.  That’s the last time Oklahoma State failed to earn a bowl bid or end the season with a winning record.  The Cowboys are starting to look like a man on a safari that just put his right foot in quicksand.  A loss at home to Texas will square OSU’s record at 4-4 with some tough November games and most likely a 5-7 record.  Texas now has a legitimate chance to sneak into the Playoffs if the Longhorns can run the table and finish 12-1.  After this game, the toughest remaining games would be home games.  A rematch with the Sooners or possibly with the Mountaineers could get the Longhorns into the #4 position.

Houston vs. South Florida: USF has fiddled its way to a 7-0 record, but if the Bulls start slow this week, they will be 7-1 on Sunday.  Houston is on a roll and almost for sure will win the AAC West Division title.  If they can knock off USF and then beat Central Florida in the Championship Game, the Cougars could be Fiesta-bowl bound.  A loss along the way probably keeps them in an in-state bowl in December.  If USF should put together a four-quarter effort and win this game, then the Bulls are going to gain enough confidence to knock off UCF in Tampa in the regular season finale.

Penn St. vs. Iowa: Three weeks ago, this would have been considered a cinch win for Penn St., but the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and then Michigan State.  They just barely survived a trip to Indiana.  Iowa has two big road games back-to-back starting with this one and then continuing with Purdue in West Lafayette the following week.  The Hawkeyes look like the best overall team in the Big Ten West, but it will be close to impossible for Kirk Ferentz’s team to win both of the two road games.

Michigan St. vs. Purdue: Michigan St. might play its best game of the year this week.  The team has got to be feeling quite upset after they did absolutely nothing against Michigan.  Purdue is going to bounce somewhat after pulling off the big win over Ohio State.  Just look at what happened to Iowa last year the week after they slaughtered Ohio State; Wisconsin slaughtered them.  We don’t think Sparty  can slaughter any Big Ten team remaining on their schedule, and that includes a home game with Rutgers.  But, they have just enough talent and a huge chip on their shoulders, so this game should be much closer than expected.

Louisiana vs. Arkansas St.: The Sun Belt West Division is totally up for grabs entering the last five weeks of the regular season, as four of the five teams have two conference losses.  The winner of this game takes a giant leg up on the rest of the contenders and also comes very close to cinching bowl eligibility.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Believe it or not, but both teams still have a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as the number two seed.  This is a contrast of two coaches on the rise for different reasons.  Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is moving up to the top tier of the coaching pyramid for the next big-time opening.  He could be coaching at a national power in the next couple of years.  Kliff Kingsbury was almost one foot out the door in Lubbock last month, but wins over TCU and Oklahoma State have him back on somewhat solid ground, as the Red Raiders need just one more win to clinch a bowl bid.

Air Force vs. Boise St.: The Falcons need to go 3-2 in to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is sneaky and tricky the rest of the way.  The two hardest remaining games are this one and the next one at Army.  Losses in both games means AFA would have to win their last three to become bowl eligible.  Boise State has an uphill climb to make the MWC Championship Game, as they are a game behind Utah State, and they must still play Fresno State.  A loss here gives the Mountain Division title to Utah State.

Florida St. vs. Clemson: This game has such a history, but history is probably all Florida State fans can hold onto in this game.  Clemson should win by double digits in this one, but stranger things have happened.  Clemson has lost games as big favorites the prior two years, and this looks like a trap game.  The Seminoles must upset somebody in order to become bowl eligible.

Fresno St. vs. Hawaii: This game won’t end until the wee hours of the morning on the East Coast, so a lot of the Eastern elite press will not give it much notice.  However, you can stay up and watch it on ESPN2.  Fresno State is like a horse with a great closing run that is sitting 7 lengths off the pace in a Stakes race but has been on the rail saving ground since the start.  The Bulldogs lost early at Minnesota and have a win at UCLA.  They sit at 6-1, and there isn’t an opponent left on the schedule they cannot beat.  This race is shaping up so that Jeff Tedford’s team could go 12-1.  Now, it is up to those speed horses up front to fall back to the pack.  If USF, UCF, and Houston lose another game this year and FSU wins out, then the Bulldogs should earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.  Hawaii should not give Fresno much of a challenge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

The PiRate Ratings consist of a group of mathematical nerds that love to look at ratings of all types.  Sports ratings dominate about 95% of what we publish, but we are big-time followers of the political scene, as our founder was once a journalist and has worked as an official in past elections.

We do not have our own polling data.  However, we handicap other polls based on past accuracy and whether the polls show bias one way or another.  Then, we go use the various dates of each handicapped poll and use linear regression analysis to come up with a prediction.

This takes a lot of time to search for the polls we believe are the most accurate.  Very few were all that accurate in 2016, but there were some major polling efforts that showed President Trump leading the electoral vote count in the final days before the election.

Today, we look at the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and the Gubernatorial Races.  The result is a split decision for 2019.

The United States Senate

Safe Seats

21 of the 35 seats are considered safe, where the candidate in the lead today has a greater than 95% chance of winning in November.

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)
Feinstein is like a Supreme Court Justice in the Golden State. She will hold this seat for life, or until she retires. This easily stays a safe seat for the Democrats.

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)
Connecticut has become much bluer in the last 15 years, and Murphy will win this seat with token opposition to retain it for the Democrats.

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)
Carper is almost as safe as if he were running unopposed. This seat is retained by the Democrats.

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)
The same thing about Carper applies here. Hirano cruises to an easy victory to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats, so this seat in essence is retained by the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)
Cardin wins a third term in a safe race to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Her chances of becoming the next President are most likely gone now, but Warren should retain this seat for the Democrats by a healthy margin.

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)
This seat remains Democrat with a safe win for Stabenow.

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Klobuchar should win re-election by a landslide of more than 20% to retain this seat for the Democrats

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D)
This race was never all that close, and Smith has maintained a double-digit lead to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)
Wicker may score the largest GOP landslide victory in the 2018 elections to retain this seat for the Republicans

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)
Fischer has a large lead and will win a second term in the Cornhusker State and retain this seat for the Republicans.

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)
Like Fischer, Heinrich easily wins re-election to a second term and retains this seat for the Democrats

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
This could be the largest landslide victory for the party of Jefferson and Jackson. Gillibrand will then have to address the rumors about whether or not she will launch a Presidentail campaign for the 2020 election. The Democrats retain this seat.

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)
This race was never close, and the Democrats will easily retain it in a landslide.

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
It’s a third term for Whitehouse, and the Democrats retain this seat.

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)
The former GOP Presidential candidate will win by 30+% to retain this seat for the Republicans.

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats and will win re-election by a large landslide. His announcement for the 2020 Presidential race should come sometime in the Spring or early Summer of 2019.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)
The former Vice-presidential candidate and running mate for Hillary Clinton might become a Presidential contender in 2020, but for now, he retains this seat for the Democrats.

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)
Cantwell wins for the fourth time and could stay in this seat for two or three more terms. She won by less than 1% in 2000, by 17% in 2006, and by 20+% in 2012, and she could win by 20+% again this time. The Democrats keep this seat.

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)
Barrasso should win this race by 50%, to safely retain this seat for the Republicans.

 

Contested Seats

Arizona
Martha McSally (R) 52.5
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47.5
Arizona stays Republican after negative ads against Sinema, using her own voice, are quite effective.

Florida
Bill Nelson (D) 50.3
Rick Scott (R) 49.7
Florida race is too close to call at this point, but if the election were today, Nelson would retain this seat for the Democrats.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D) 48.2
Mike Braun (R) 47.4
Lucy Brenton (L) 4.4
This race is trending toward Donnelly in the most recent polls, and the Democrats look like they will retain this seat unless something drastic changes the race in the final two weeks.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 37.2
Mike Espy (D) 34.7
Chris McDaniel (R) 24.0
Toby Bartee (D) 4.1
It’s hard to see how Mississippi would flip, but Espy is probably the Democrats’ best possible candidate in the Magnolia State. This race is too close to call, but if the general election were held today, Hyde-Smith would win to keep this seat Republican.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R) 51.5
Claire McCaskill (D) 48.5
This race now looks like it is trending to Hawley after Project Veritas releases damaging evidence in McCaskill’s own words on hiding her actual stance on gun control with the quote that “People just can’t know that.” This state will flip from Democrat to Republican.

Montana
Jon Tester (D) 51.1
Matt Rosendale (R) 48.9
Tester holds on to a narrow lead, but the President has been in Big Sky Country four times in this election cycle, and this race has moved from leaning Democrat to narrowly Democrat. It is too close to call officially, but if the election were today, Tester would squeak by with re-election and keep this seat Democrat.

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D) 53.8
Bob Hugin (R) 46.2
This seat is close to safe for a Menendez re-election, and the Democrats retain it.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R) 53.7
Jacky Rosen (D) 46.3
This race was closer earlier in the campaign cycle, but Heller has a somewhat comfortable lead and should retain this seat for the Republicans.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R) 55.9
Heidi Heitkamp (D) 44.1
This seat is almost assured of flipping from Democrat to Republican. Heitkamp had the numbers working against her in a red state that went for Trump.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D) 57.6
Lou Barletta (R) 42.4
This race has opened up by a healthy enough margin to guarantee it for Casey and retain the seat for the Democrats.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R) 53.8
Phil Bredesen (D) 46.2
In another case where Project Veritas produced damning evidence that Bredesen had lied about his support for Justice Kavanaugh, this race has moved by several points in favor of Blackburn. It is not decided yet, as Tennessee has never elected a female to statewide office, and in past years, females that held the lead in polls lost on election day. It is a tossup state, but if the election were held today, the Republicans would narrowly hold onto this seat.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R) 54.1
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45.9
In a state where gun ownership is above the national average, O’Rourke’s statement that Texas should lead the nation conversation for gun control can be considered a gaffe that will cost him a couple of points and make this race close to safe for Cruz to win re-election and retain this seat for the Republicans.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D) 54.6
Patrick Morrisey (R) 45.4
Joe Manchin showed his intelligence in a very red state when he voted for Justice Kavanaugh. He will win by close to double digits and retain this seat for the Democrats. Manchin considered retiring, and he later would not make a comment on the possibility of switching parties. Manchin has tried to encourage other Democrats to work with the President, as in his opinion this is how his party can add to its numbers. His words are falling on deaf ears.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D) 54.7
Leah Vukmir (R) 45.3
Baldwin has excellent organization in the Badger State, and she should win this race without much concern that the GOP can sneak up on election day like the state did for the President. The Democrats retain this seat.

 

The 65 Senators not up for re-election
Republicans 42
Democrats 23

There are 35 seats up for grabs this year due to two special elections.
Safe for Democrats 21
Safe for Republicans 5

Subtotal
Republicans 47
Democrats 44

*** Nine states will decide the balance of power in the US Senate. ***
Three lean to the Democrats today
Florida
Indiana
Montana

Six lean to the Republicans today
Arizona
Mississippi Special Election
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Tennessee

The current prediction is:
Republicans 53
Democrats 47

 

The United States House of Representatives

Currently
Republicans 235
Democrats 193

2018 Safe seats (411)
Democrats 212
Republicans 199

2018 Contested Seats (27)

Forecasting the 27 races individually is more than our tiny group can handle.  We have used our regression analysis to look at net gains and net losses in the polls.  It is not as accurate as looking at each race individually, but we do prefer to get at least 4 hours of sleep a night.

If the election were held today
Democrats 222
Republicans 216

 

Gubernatorial Races if the election were held today
Republicans 27
Democrats 23

 

So, who will be the big winner in November?  It’s hard to say, but if we do end up with a split decision, the biggest winners may be all the political bloggers and online political sites that will have a field day cramming their opinions down the country’s throats.

The only political commentary we will make is this: Many people fail to understand that the elected official that most affects his or her life is the councilman or alderman in his or her neighborhood.  Yet, history shows that these elections receive the lowest turnout of all races.

Please vote in your local elections wherever you live and for whomever you believe will best represent your views and opinions and who best will respond to any redresses you might have.  In most cases, you can talk personally with your councilman or alderman.  Most of us can never speak directly with any other elected official, other than one or two seconds in a handshake line during an election cycle.

We live in interesting times!

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	October 18
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona St.	Stanford	-4.2	-2.8	-4.6
Arkansas St.	Georgia St.	10.0	9.2	10.6

 

Friday	October 19
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Colorado St.	28.2	26.5	28.4
UNLV	Air Force	-9.6	-8.8	-9.4

 

Saturday	October 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Temple	Cincinnati	6.7	5.1	7.0
Arkansas	Tulsa	12.3	10.7	10.6
Navy	Houston	-8.6	-7.0	-9.4
Tulane	SMU	5.0	5.8	5.7
Missouri	Memphis	15.5	12.1	15.5
East Carolina	Central Florida	-29.1	-29.6	-30.0
South Florida	Connecticut	27.9	29.6	29.4
Syracuse	North Carolina	13.5	13.0	13.3
Duke	Virginia	12.6	10.1	12.9
Clemson	North Carolina St.	22.4	20.3	23.0
Florida St.	Wake Forest	6.7	8.3	8.6
TCU	Oklahoma	-4.6	-4.3	-6.3
Texas Tech	Kansas	13.3	13.4	13.9
Michigan St.	Michigan	-6.2	-7.0	-7.1
Wisconsin	Illinois	26.9	24.6	27.3
Iowa	Maryland	13.7	13.1	14.2
Rutgers	Northwestern	-23.4	-22.7	-25.4
Indiana	Penn St.	-20.4	-18.7	-21.2
Nebraska	Minnesota	-2.8	-3.4	-4.5
Purdue	Ohio St.	-14.2	-13.6	-14.7
Marshall	Florida Atlantic	-0.6	1.4	-0.2
Middle Tenneesee	Charlotte	17.3	16.3	18.3
Louisiana Tech	UTEP	25.8	25.2	27.9
Southern Miss.	UTSA	9.8	8.5	9.7
Florida Int’l.	Rice	26.4	27.8	29.1
UAB	North Texas	-2.2	-2.2	-2.6
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	1.1	0.8	2.6
Army	Miami (O)	15.1	14.2	13.0
Massachusetts	Coastal Carolina	10.2	9.6	10.7
New Mexico St.	Georgia Southern	-13.3	-13.1	-13.7
Toledo	Buffalo	2.5	1.4	1.1
Ohio U	Bowling Green	14.6	15.5	14.8
Ball St.	Eastern Michigan	-6.8	-5.7	-7.4
Central Michigan	Western Michigan	-4.8	-4.0	-5.4
Kent St.	Akron	-10.3	-10.6	-11.0
Wyoming	Utah St.	-10.6	-12.1	-12.7
New Mexico	Fresno St.	-19.5	-16.9	-19.7
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	30.5	30.0	33.1
Hawaii	Nevada	-5.9	-3.8	-6.7
Washington	Colorado	22.3	19.3	22.8
Oregon St.	California	-13.9	-13.8	-15.1
Washington St.	Oregon	-1.1	-2.0	-2.7
Utah	USC	9.2	8.9	10.6
UCLA	Arizona	1.9	3.5	-0.6
Ole Miss	Auburn	-7.9	-7.0	-9.2
Tennessee	Alabama	-38.1	-35.6	-40.2
LSU	Mississippi St.	1.6	4.0	2.2
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	17.3	15.9	17.3
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	22.0	21.7	22.7
Louisina-Monroe	Texas St.	13.6	10.9	14.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Liberty	Idaho St.	4.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.8	140.1
2	Clemson	133.9	131.3	134.4	133.2
3	Georgia	127.8	124.7	128.6	127.0
4	Ohio St.	127.5	125.5	127.8	126.9
5	Michigan	125.5	124.2	125.9	125.2
6	Notre Dame	124.5	121.7	123.5	123.2
7	Washington	123.4	121.4	124.7	123.1
8	Penn St.	122.3	119.6	122.6	121.5
9	Oklahoma	119.7	118.3	120.0	119.3
10	Mississippi St.	119.9	117.4	120.6	119.3
11	L S U	118.6	118.4	119.8	118.9
12	Michigan St.	117.7	115.6	117.2	116.9
13	Utah	116.0	114.3	116.9	115.8
14	Miami	115.9	114.5	115.4	115.3
15	Iowa	116.0	114.0	115.7	115.2
16	Auburn	114.7	113.4	116.3	114.8
17	Wisconsin	115.8	113.1	115.2	114.7
18	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
19	Duke	115.3	113.2	114.9	114.5
20	Kentucky	114.9	113.8	114.8	114.5
21	Missouri	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4
22	Florida	114.6	113.0	115.5	114.3
23	N. Carolina St.	114.5	113.9	114.4	114.3
24	Stanford	115.1	112.4	115.1	114.2
25	Oregon	113.7	113.6	114.6	114.0
26	Texas A&M	114.2	112.9	114.4	113.8
27	Boston College	114.4	111.8	113.8	113.4
28	Texas	113.5	112.1	113.0	112.8
29	Iowa State	112.8	111.2	112.6	112.2
30	Virginia Tech	112.2	111.2	111.8	111.7
31	West Virginia	112.4	111.4	111.5	111.7
32	S. Carolina	112.2	111.0	111.8	111.7
33	T C U	112.1	111.0	110.7	111.2
34	Georgia Tech	111.2	110.1	110.8	110.7
35	Fresno St.	110.9	109.9	111.2	110.7
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.0	110.6	110.1
37	Purdue	110.3	108.9	110.1	109.8
38	Boise St.	109.7	109.0	109.8	109.5
39	U S C	109.8	108.4	109.3	109.2
40	Syracuse	109.9	108.5	109.1	109.2
41	Washington St.	109.6	108.6	108.9	109.0
42	Utah St.	107.8	109.2	109.3	108.8
43	Texas Tech	109.5	108.2	108.4	108.7
44	Oklahoma St.	109.4	107.5	109.1	108.6
45	Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	107.5	107.3
46	Florida St.	107.4	106.8	107.1	107.1
47	Army	104.9	105.6	105.1	105.2
48	Virginia	105.2	105.7	104.5	105.1
49	Colorado	104.0	105.1	104.9	104.7
50	Maryland	105.3	104.0	104.5	104.6
51	Ole Miss	103.8	103.4	104.1	103.7
52	Kansas St.	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
53	Houston	103.0	103.7	103.4	103.4
54	Minnesota	103.7	102.8	103.6	103.4
55	Memphis	102.2	103.9	103.2	103.1
56	California	103.8	101.3	103.2	102.8
57	San Diego St.	102.4	102.6	103.2	102.7
58	Temple	102.4	102.4	103.1	102.6
59	Baylor	103.0	101.2	102.7	102.3
60	Wake Forest	103.8	101.4	101.5	102.2
61	Appalachian St.	100.8	102.6	102.5	101.9
62	N. Texas	99.9	102.4	100.9	101.0
63	Pittsburgh	101.4	100.7	100.8	101.0
64	Vanderbilt	100.5	100.8	100.5	100.6
65	BYU	100.1	100.6	100.7	100.4
66	Arizona	100.6	98.8	100.7	100.0
67	Arkansas	100.3	97.8	99.2	99.1
68	Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.5	99.1
69	South Florida	98.4	100.4	98.5	99.1
70	N. Carolina	99.4	98.4	98.8	98.9
71	Cincinnati	98.2	99.8	98.6	98.8
72	Buffalo	97.7	99.8	98.8	98.8
73	U C L A	99.5	99.3	97.1	98.6
74	Indiana	98.9	97.9	98.4	98.4
75	Kansas	99.2	97.8	97.5	98.2
76	Florida Atlantic	97.2	97.9	97.8	97.6
77	Toledo	97.1	98.2	96.9	97.4
78	Nebraska	97.9	96.4	96.1	96.8
79	Louisiana Tech	94.6	97.1	96.1	95.9
80	U A B	94.6	97.1	95.3	95.7
81	Air Force	95.3	95.9	95.4	95.5
82	Northern Illinois	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1
83	Louisville	95.2	95.2	94.4	94.9
84	Marshall	93.6	96.3	94.5	94.8
85	Tulane	94.4	94.8	94.2	94.5
86	Miami (O)	92.8	94.5	95.1	94.1
87	Eastern Michigan	93.5	94.8	94.0	94.1
88	Wyoming	94.3	94.1	93.6	94.0
89	Ohio U	92.7	93.9	93.2	93.3
90	Middle Tennessee	91.8	93.2	93.0	92.7
91	Western Michigan	91.8	93.4	92.7	92.7
92	Navy	91.4	93.6	91.0	92.0
93	Nevada	92.1	91.9	92.0	92.0
94	Troy	90.6	91.9	91.9	91.5
95	SMU	92.0	91.4	91.0	91.5
96	Akron	90.8	92.1	91.2	91.4
97	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.6	90.4	91.2
98	Illinois	91.4	91.0	90.4	90.9
99	Tulsa	91.0	90.2	91.5	90.9
100	Georgia Southern	88.9	90.6	89.5	89.7
101	New Mexico	88.4	90.0	88.5	89.0
102	Arkansas St.	86.7	88.0	88.1	87.6
103	Central Michigan	85.0	87.4	85.3	85.9
104	Southern Miss.	84.4	87.4	85.0	85.6
105	Oregon St.	86.9	84.5	85.1	85.5
106	Ball St.	84.2	86.6	84.1	85.0
107	Colorado St.	84.5	85.4	84.4	84.8
108	Massachusetts	83.4	85.3	84.3	84.3
109	U N L V	83.2	84.6	83.5	83.8
110	Rutgers	84.8	83.7	82.8	83.8
111	Old Dominion	82.0	85.4	81.5	83.0
112	Louisiana	81.7	83.9	82.8	82.8
113	East Carolina	82.9	82.6	82.3	82.6
114	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.5	82.8	82.6
115	Hawaii	82.2	84.1	81.3	82.5
116	W. Kentucky	80.7	83.7	81.6	82.0
117	Liberty	81.3	80.5	81.5	81.1
118	Bowling Green	80.6	80.9	80.8	80.8
119	Georgia St.	79.2	81.2	80.0	80.1
120	U T S A	77.2	81.4	77.8	78.8
121	Kent St.	78.0	79.1	77.7	78.3
122	Charlotte	77.0	79.4	77.2	77.9
123	South Alabama	76.4	78.3	77.0	77.2
124	Coastal Carolina	75.7	78.2	76.1	76.7
125	San Jose St.	74.9	75.6	73.1	74.5
126	N. Mexico St.	73.1	75.0	73.3	73.8
127	Connecticut	73.5	73.8	72.1	73.1
128	Texas State	71.3	74.2	71.1	72.2
129	U T E P	71.3	74.4	70.7	72.1
130	Rice	66.2	68.7	64.3	66.4

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	3-0	6-0
Temple	102.4	102.4	103.1	102.6	3-0	4-3
South Florida	98.4	100.4	98.5	99.1	2-0	6-0
Cincinnati	98.2	99.8	98.6	98.8	2-0	6-0
East Carolina	82.9	82.6	82.3	82.6	0-3	2-4
Connecticut	73.5	73.8	72.1	73.1	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	103.0	103.7	103.4	103.4	2-0	5-1
Memphis	102.2	103.9	103.2	103.1	1-3	4-3
Tulane	94.4	94.8	94.2	94.5	1-1	2-4
Navy	91.4	93.6	91.0	92.0	1-2	2-4
SMU	92.0	91.4	91.0	91.5	1-1	2-4
Tulsa	91.0	90.2	91.5	90.9	0-3	1-5
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.9	131.3	134.4	133.2	3-0	6-0
N. Carolina St.	114.5	113.9	114.4	114.3	1-0	5-0
Boston College	114.4	111.8	113.8	113.4	2-1	5-2
Syracuse	109.9	108.5	109.1	109.2	1-2	4-2
Florida St.	107.4	106.8	107.1	107.1	1-3	3-3
Wake Forest	103.8	101.4	101.5	102.2	0-2	3-3
Louisville	95.2	95.2	94.4	94.9	0-4	2-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.9	114.5	115.4	115.3	2-1	5-2
Duke	115.3	113.2	114.9	114.5	1-1	5-1
Virginia Tech	112.2	111.2	111.8	111.7	3-0	4-2
Georgia Tech	111.2	110.1	110.8	110.7	1-3	3-4
Virginia	105.2	105.7	104.5	105.1	2-1	4-2
Pittsburgh	101.4	100.7	100.8	101.0	2-1	3-4
N. Carolina	99.4	98.4	98.8	98.9	1-2	1-4
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.7	118.3	120.0	119.3	2-1	5-1
Texas	113.5	112.1	113.0	112.8	4-0	6-1
Iowa State	112.8	111.2	112.6	112.2	2-2	3-3
West Virginia	112.4	111.4	111.5	111.7	3-1	5-1
T C U	112.1	111.0	110.7	111.2	1-2	3-3
Texas Tech	109.5	108.2	108.4	108.7	2-1	4-2
Oklahoma St.	109.4	107.5	109.1	108.6	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	1-3	3-4
Baylor	103.0	101.2	102.7	102.3	2-2	4-3
Kansas	99.2	97.8	97.5	98.2	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	127.5	125.5	127.8	126.9	4-0	7-0
Michigan	125.5	124.2	125.9	125.2	4-0	6-1
Penn St.	122.3	119.6	122.6	121.5	1-2	4-2
Michigan St.	117.7	115.6	117.2	116.9	3-1	4-2
Maryland	105.3	104.0	104.5	104.6	2-1	4-2
Indiana	98.9	97.9	98.4	98.4	1-3	4-3
Rutgers	84.8	83.7	82.8	83.8	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.0	114.0	115.7	115.2	2-1	5-1
Wisconsin	115.8	113.1	115.2	114.7	2-1	4-2
Northwestern	110.7	109.0	110.6	110.1	3-1	3-3
Purdue	110.3	108.9	110.1	109.8	2-1	3-3
Minnesota	103.7	102.8	103.6	103.4	0-3	3-3
Nebraska	97.9	96.4	96.1	96.8	0-4	0-6
Illinois	91.4	91.0	90.4	90.9	1-2	3-3
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.6	108.6	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.2	97.9	97.8	97.6	1-1	3-3
Marshall	93.6	96.3	94.5	94.8	2-1	4-2
Middle Tennessee	91.8	93.2	93.0	92.7	2-1	3-3
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.6	90.4	91.2	2-0	4-2
Old Dominion	82.0	85.4	81.5	83.0	0-4	1-6
W. Kentucky	80.7	83.7	81.6	82.0	0-2	1-5
Charlotte	77.0	79.4	77.2	77.9	2-1	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.9	102.4	100.9	101.0	2-1	6-1
Louisiana Tech	94.6	97.1	96.1	95.9	2-1	4-2
U A B	94.6	97.1	95.3	95.7	3-0	5-1
Southern Miss.	84.4	87.4	85.0	85.6	1-1	2-3
U T S A	77.2	81.4	77.8	78.8	2-1	3-4
U T E P	71.3	74.4	70.7	72.1	0-2	0-6
Rice	66.2	68.7	64.3	66.4	0-3	1-6
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.5	121.7	123.5	123.2	x	7-0
Army	104.9	105.6	105.1	105.2	x	4-2
BYU	100.1	100.6	100.7	100.4	x	4-3
Massachusetts	83.4	85.3	84.3	84.3	x	2-5
Liberty	81.3	80.5	81.5	81.1	x	3-3
N. Mexico St.	73.1	75.0	73.3	73.8	x	2-5
Indep. Averages	94.5	94.8	94.7	94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	97.7	99.8	98.8	98.8	3-0	6-1
Miami (O)	92.8	94.5	95.1	94.1	3-1	3-4
Ohio U	92.7	93.9	93.2	93.3	1-1	3-3
Akron	90.8	92.1	91.2	91.4	0-2	2-3
Bowling Green	80.6	80.9	80.8	80.8	0-3	1-6
Kent St.	78.0	79.1	77.7	78.3	0-3	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.1	98.2	96.9	97.4	1-1	3-3
Northern Illinois	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1	4-0	4-3
Eastern Michigan	93.5	94.8	94.0	94.1	1-3	3-4
Western Michigan	91.8	93.4	92.7	92.7	3-0	5-2
Central Michigan	85.0	87.4	85.3	85.9	0-3	1-6
Ball St.	84.2	86.6	84.1	85.0	2-1	3-4
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	109.7	109.0	109.8	109.5	2-1	4-2
Utah St.	107.8	109.2	109.3	108.8	2-0	5-1
Air Force	95.3	95.9	95.4	95.5	0-3	2-4
Wyoming	94.3	94.1	93.6	94.0	0-3	2-5
New Mexico	88.4	90.0	88.5	89.0	1-1	3-3
Colorado St.	84.5	85.4	84.4	84.8	2-1	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.9	109.9	111.2	110.7	2-0	5-1
San Diego St.	102.4	102.6	103.2	102.7	2-0	5-1
Nevada	92.1	91.9	92.0	92.0	1-2	3-4
U N L V	83.2	84.6	83.5	83.8	0-2	2-4
Hawaii	82.2	84.1	81.3	82.5	3-1	6-2
San Jose St.	74.9	75.6	73.1	74.5	0-3	0-6
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	123.4	121.4	124.7	123.1	3-1	5-2
Stanford	115.1	112.4	115.1	114.2	2-1	4-2
Oregon	113.7	113.6	114.6	114.0	2-1	5-1
Washington St.	109.6	108.6	108.9	109.0	2-1	5-1
California	103.8	101.3	103.2	102.8	0-3	3-3
Oregon St.	86.9	84.5	85.1	85.5	0-3	1-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.0	114.3	116.9	115.8	2-2	4-2
U S C	109.8	108.4	109.3	109.2	3-1	4-2
Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	107.5	107.3	1-2	3-3
Colorado	104.0	105.1	104.9	104.7	2-1	5-1
Arizona	100.6	98.8	100.7	100.0	2-2	3-4
U C L A	99.5	99.3	97.1	98.6	1-2	1-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.8	124.7	128.6	127.0	4-1	6-1
Kentucky	114.9	113.8	114.8	114.5	3-1	5-1
Missouri	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4	0-3	3-3
Florida	114.6	113.0	115.5	114.3	4-1	6-1
S. Carolina	112.2	111.0	111.8	111.7	2-3	3-3
Vanderbilt	100.5	100.8	100.5	100.6	0-3	3-4
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.5	99.1	1-2	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.8	140.1	4-0	7-0
Mississippi St.	119.9	117.4	120.6	119.3	1-2	4-2
L S U	118.6	118.4	119.8	118.9	3-1	6-1
Auburn	114.7	113.4	116.3	114.8	1-3	4-3
Texas A&M	114.2	112.9	114.4	113.8	3-1	5-2
Ole Miss	103.8	103.4	104.1	103.7	1-2	5-2
Arkansas	100.3	97.8	99.2	99.1	0-4	1-6
SEC Averages	114.0	112.7	114.4	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	100.8	102.6	102.5	101.9	2-0	4-1
Troy	90.6	91.9	91.9	91.5	3-1	5-2
Georgia Southern	88.9	90.6	89.5	89.7	3-0	5-1
Georgia St.	79.2	81.2	80.0	80.1	1-1	2-4
Coastal Carolina	75.7	78.2	76.1	76.7	1-2	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	86.7	88.0	88.1	87.6	0-2	3-3
Louisiana	81.7	83.9	82.8	82.8	2-1	3-3
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.5	82.8	82.6	1-2	3-4
South Alabama	76.4	78.3	77.0	77.2	2-2	2-5
Texas State	71.3	74.2	71.1	72.2	0-3	1-5
Sun Belt Averages	83.4	85.1	84.2	84.2

 

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.0	112.7	114.4	113.7
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.1	107.6	108.6	108.4
5	P-12	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
7	IND	94.5	94.8	94.7	94.7
8	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.4	85.1	84.2	84.2

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: We revised these early Monday morning.  Multiple sites have listed different bowl tie-ins.  We visited each bowl’s home page to verify the correct alignments and made the appropriate changes.

Additionally, our bowl projections differ from most others because we make assumptions on future games.  For instance, all other major bowl projections have Ohio State in the Playoff today.  We believe the Buckeyes are going to lose a game before the end of the regular season and fall to 5th or 6th in the final poll.  Central Florida is listed as the top Group of 5 team and placed in a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but we believe they will lose and fall behind others.  Currently, we forecast Fresno State to end up in this spot.

Here are the revised bowl & playoff projections.

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Utah
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana-Monroe
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Tulane	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Cincinnati	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	[Southern Miss.]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Minnesota	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Toledo]	Michigan St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Louisiana]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Nevada	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	North Carolina St.
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	[Colorado]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	Stanford
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Auburn
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Purdue	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Fresno St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Texas
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

There Is Really Only One Team That Can Beat Alabama

The Alabama Crimson Tide currently sits almost one touchdown ahead of the number two Clemson Tigers, but can this Clemson team defeat Alabama?  The answer to that question is probably not, with a qualification.  If Tua Tagovailoa’s knee injury issues were to force him to miss games, then maybe Clemson or Ohio State could make a close game of it.  However, when Tua is healthy, there is only one team that can beat the top-ranked Tide.  That team is: Alabama.

Unless Alabama has a total meltdown, the Tide should win every game by double digits.  Let’s take a look at the moment at Alabama through seven games compared to some great teams from the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present) that ran the table and won the national championship.

Team	Year	PPG	Opp	Rush	Opp	Pass	Opp	Yds	Opp
Alabama	2018	54	15	217	127	350	190	567	317
Alabama	2009	32	12	215	78	188	166	403	244
Texas	2005	50	16	275	131	237	172	512	303
USC	2004	38	13	177	79	272	200	449	279
Miami (Fla.)	2001	43	10	205	133	250	138	455	271
Oklahoma	2000	37	15	135	108	295	171	430	279
Florida St.	1999	38	17	124	99	303	206	427	305
Nebraska	1997	47	17	393	73	121	184	514	257
Nebraska	1995	53	15	400	78	157	216	557	294
Alabama	1992	28	9	209	55	154	139	363	194
Miami (Fla.)	1991	32	8	146	132	295	157	441	289
Washington	1991	41	10	232	67	240	170	472	237
Alabama	1979	32	6	345	102	84	78	429	180
Notre Dame	1973	35	8	350	82	111	119	461	201
USC	1972	39	11	247	110	185	132	432	242
Nebraska	1971	39	8	253	98	178	112	431	210
Texas	1969	40	11	363	90	109	136	472	226
Mystery	Team	46	9	319	77	189	185	508	262

I’ll mention that mystery team in a moment.  Let’s look at Alabama’s stats so far.  The Crimson Tide is averaging 54 points per game and giving up 15.  For the most part, the starters have rarely played in the fourth quarter of any game and some have not played in the second half.

This Tide team is unstoppable on offense, as they can still ram through defenses and break through for large rushing gains, but now they have the best quarterback in the nation.  Tagovailoa is drawing comparisons to Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.  For older folks, he’s like a combination of Daryle Lamonica and Tobin Rote.  In a day when few teams average more than 10-11 yards per completion, Tagovailoa is averaging more than 14 yards per attempt!

The only knock against Alabama so far this year is that they have played a rather weak schedule.  However, the Tide quickly dismissed the good teams they have faced.  They beat Texas A&M by more than three touchdowns, while Clemson had to sneak by the Aggies.  They beat Ole Miss by 55 and Missouri by 29.

The Crimson Tide still has games to play against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, but we don’t expect any of the three to beat ‘Bama.  LSU will be the toughest test prior to the SEC Championship Game.  With Georgia losing to LSU, and with Florida and Kentucky still on the Bulldogs’ schedule, there is no guarantee that Georgia will even make the SEC Championship Game.

If Alabama runs the table, they will play the #4 seed in the Semifinal Game of the Playoffs.  As of today, it looks like the #4 seed will be a one-loss team, from Among Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, and remotely Washington St. or Oregon.  None of these teams will challenge the Tide.

The Championship Game might pit Clemson against ‘Bama again.  It could be Alabama and Ohio State, but we have a suspicion that the Buckeyes will lose one game this year, either to Purdue this weekend, Michigan State, or Michigan.  There really isn’t a team other than maybe Clemson that can compete with Alabama this year.  For the Crimson Tide to lose, they will have to beat themselves.

Now to the Mystery Team  

The Mystery Team had drawn comparisons to the great Army teams with Glenn Davis and Felix Blanchard.  They had been compared to the great Oklahoma team that won 47 games in a row.  In fact, the Mystery Team had won 22 games in a row

What you are looking at is an undefeated team with the closest win being 27 points.  This Mystery Team beat the #10 team by four touchdowns and the #19 team by 33 points.

But, there’s a catch.  This team was undefeated with these gaudy stats with one game left to play.  They only needed to win their final game of the year against a team they had defeated by more than five touchdowns the year before.

This team was called by its coach, a Hall of Famer with prior national titles as his best ever.  Did this team beat itself?  No, not exactly.  The prior year’s team cost this Mystery Team its for sure national championship.

This team is Ohio State in 1969.  Through eight games, the Buckeyes did what Alabama is doing this year.  They never trailed for even one second of the season going into the final game against Michigan.  A 41-14 win over Washington in Seattle was their closest game to date, and they entered this game as a 17-point favorite over the 7-2 and 12th-ranked Wolverines at the Big House.

The year before Ohio State beat Michigan 50-14.  The Buckeyes had tried for two when they were up 43-14 and missed, and then they added another touchdown late to hit the half-century mark.  For the next season, first year Michigan coach Bo Schembechler made sure his returning players remembered that game.  The number 50 was plastered everywhere a Wolverine football player could find himself in the athletic facility.  Practice uniforms had the number 50.

Ohio State began the 1969 game like they had the previous eight games.  They returned the opening kick past the 40 yard line, and then on the first scrimmage play, quarterback Rex Kern scrambled for 25 yards to put the Buckeyes close to the Michigan 30.  Bruising fullback Jim Otis carried wide on a sweep, then off-tackle, then up the middle twice in a row to give Ohio State a first down at the Michigan 20.  Otis appeared to make it a first and goal a few plays later, but OSU was called for a false start.  On 4th and short, Michigan made the first big play of the drive stopping the Scarlet and Gray inches short of a first down.

Michigan could not do anything with the ball and punted after three plays.  Ohio State roared right back.  Michigan punted, and Ohio State punt returner Larry Zelina returned it almost back to where Michigan had punted.  It was a quick and easy five play drive for a touchdown, and the Buckeyes led 6-0.  PATs were not automatic in those days, and the OSU extra point was missed.

At this point, it looked like the blowout was on.  However, the Michigan players were not about to let Ohio State do to them in Ann Arbor what had happened a year earlier in Columbus.  Michigan drove the ball on a 10-play drive for a touchdown, and when behemoth kicker Frank Titas hit the PAT, Ohio State trailed for the first time all season, even if it was just 7-6.

Ohio State did what Woody Hayes’ teams did best.  On the next possession, they drove almost 75 yards in 10 plays to retake the lead on a pass from Kern to end Jan White.  On a 2-point try, Kern was sacked before he could pass the ball, and Ohio State led 12-7.  The Buckeyes would not score another point in 1969.

Michigan came alive and quickly drove for the go-ahead score to take a 14-12 lead.  Before the half was done, the Wolverines would put the game away.  After Ohio State was forced to punt, Barry Pierson almost returned it to the house, being knocked down just short of the goal.  Michigan scored a couple of plays later and led 21-12 near the middle of the quarter.  Following a nice Ohio State drive that stalled, Coach Hayes elected to try to make a 53-yard field goal, as in those days, a missed field goal that did not get returned was a touchback.  The kick was way short, and Michigan had the ball once again.  A nice drive could consume the clock, but Schembechler was interested in more.

Michigan calmly killed the clock, but they did so by driving 80 yard for the apparent killing touchdown.  The score was overturned by a penalty.  A short field goal made it 24-12 Wolverines, and that’s how the score stayed the rest of the day.

In the second half, Pierson, the punt returner that set up the go ahead touchdown was the leading receiver for Ohio State.  He intercepted three Buckeye passes, as quarterbacks Kern and Ron Maciejowski threw a combined six picks.  Ohio State didn’t threaten to score any more touchdowns, missing a couple of long field goals.  Michigan played conservatively letting the Buckeyes make mistakes, and the greatest Ohio State team in modern history finished the season 8-1.

Here’s the thing.  In this era, the Big Ten was not bowl friendly.  The champion of the league earned a Rose Bowl bid, but there was a rule that a team could not make consecutive trips to the Rose Bowl.  Had Ohio State beaten Michigan, they would have been 9-0 with no bowl game.  Michigan, at 7-3, would have been picked to go in their place.  However, Schembechler had told his team that if they lost to the Buckeyes, he would decline the Rose Bowl bid.  Third place Purdue would have faced USC instead.

Michigan did win, and the Wolverines headed to Pasadena to play a 9-0-1 USC team that had tied Notre Dame.  On the night before the game, Schembechler suffered a heart attack and did not coach in the game.  Assistant Jim Young became acting head coach, and Michigan played lethargically, losing to USC 10-3.  It was the first time Michigan had ever lost a bowl game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 9-15, 2018

We’ve read your comments.  A couple dozen came in over the weekend telling us to defer to the Land Sharps.  Yes, all five of our guest selectors now have winning records for the season.  You heard that right.  Very few amateur handicappers can sustain a winning record against the spread plus the vigorish over the course of a couple of weeks, yet all five of our Land Sharps have done so after 6 weeks of the season.

As for your official PiRate picks, don’t ask.  We are suffering through a malaise, so by popular demand, we will present the Land Sharp picks first and then follow with our ridiculous 25 selections for the week.  We are going to just toss all the darts at once and hope 13 or more stick to the board.

You may notice that we are presenting this feature a day early this week.  There is a valid reason.  There is a Tuesday night college game, and one Sharp selected it.

This Week’s Sharps’ Selections

Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 22-11 66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 30.0%

Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU

 

Buckeye Michelle

Season: 16-8-1  66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 28.8%

Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC
UTSA +13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
South Carolina +3 vs. Texas A&M
Kansas St. +7 vs. Oklahoma St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Season: 15-9-1  62.5% vs. the Spread with ROI of 20.4%

Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. UNC
Fresno State -19 vs. Wyoming
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Utah State -24 vs. UNLV
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska

 

Stewed Meat

Season: 16-13  55.2% vs. the Spread with ROI of 5.9%

Arkansas St. +10 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn
Arizona +14 vs. Utah
Georgia -7 vs. LSU
Oregon +3 1/2 vs. Washington
Baylor +14 1/2 vs. Texas
Illinois +10 1/2 vs. Purdue
Central Florida -4 1/2 vs. Memphis
New Mexico Pk. vs. Colorado St.

 

Dean615

Season: 10-9  52.6% vs. the Spread with ROI of 0.5%

Notre Dame -20 1/2 vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa -4 1/2 vs. Indiana
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Texas Tech +7 1/2 vs. TCU
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn

 

The Official PiRate Ratings Selections

We are going with an astronomical 25 selections this week, because we keep choosing about 7 each week out of 25 that we like, and we keep choosing the wrong 7.  So, we are going with every selection we liked, since so many we didn’t choose in recent weeks were winners.

Picks vs. the Spread

Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Coastal Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UL-Monroe
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska
Washington -3 vs. Oregon
Penn St. -13 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
Army -14 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Georgia Southern -16 1/2 vs. Texas St.
UTSA + 13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC

10-point Teasers

All 3-game parlays at 11-10

Alabama -18 vs. Missouri
Tennessee +26 1/2 vs. Auburn
Hawaii +24 1/2 vs. BYU

Boston College -3 1/2 vs. Louisville
New Mexico +11 1/2 vs. Colorado St.
Eastern Michigan +11 1/2 vs. Toledo

Duke +12 vs. Georgia Tech
Iowa St. +17 vs. West Virginia
Georgia +3 vs. LSU

Maryland -14 vs. Rutgers
Miami (O) -1/2 vs. Kent St.
Northwestern +6 vs. Nebraska

Ohio St. -19 1/2 vs. Minnesota
UAB -6 vs. Rice
San Diego St.  Pk vs. Air Force

Army -4 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Texas A&M +8 vs. South Carolina
Texas -4 vs. Baylor

Arizona +24 vs. Utah
Florida +3 vs. Vanderbilt
Miami (Fla.) +4 vs. Virginia

 

Money Line Parlays

@ +191 $100 invested would return $291 with a win

Northwestern over Nebraska  
UAB over Rice  
South Florida over Tulsa 
Boston College over Louisville 

 

@+175 $100 invested would return $275 with a win

Central Florida over Memphis
San Diego St. over Air Force 
Buffalo over Akron 
Texas over Baylor

 

@+151 $100 invested would return $251 with a win

Florida over Vanderbilt 
Western Michigan over Bowling Green 
Georgia over LSU  
Army over San Jose St.

 

NFL 10-point Teasers	(Totals)	@11-10	3-game parlays
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	34	Over
Arizona	Minnesota	33	Over
Carolina	Washington	35	Over
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Indianapolis	N.Y. Jets	35	Over
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	63	Under
L.A. Chargers	Cleveland	33.5	Over
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Miami	32	Over
Jacksonville	Dallas	30	Over
San Francisco	Green Bay	36	Over

 

NOTE: All wagers are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  These are imaginary currencies invested in imaginary books.  We do not bet on these games.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, these are not the actual picks Stewed has invested real currency at a real book in Nevada. 

Stewed is fortunate enough to receive the “Outlaw Line” before the Opening Line is issued.  Stewed’s real strategy is to isolate odds that are off by at least 3 points and then play both sides of the key games. 

For instance, if Team A is a 14 1/2 point favorite on the late Saturday night Outlaw Line, and Stewed believes the true spread should be 11, Stewed will put a 5-figure wager on Team B at +14 1/2.  Then, after the opening line is listed at 12 because Stewed and other Sharps knew better, and then when the line lowers to 11 because many in the general public also think they know better, Stewed wagers the same 5-figure amount on Team A at -11. 

If the actual game score comes in at 12, 13, or 14 (three very frequent game spreads), Stewed wins both wagers and makes a lot of profit.  Otherwise, Stewed will win one of the two wagers, unless the spread is exactly 11 points, in which Stewed wins one wager and pushes on the other.  All Stewed needs to do to turn a profit is to have a game come between the two spreads 1 out of every 19 games.  This is wagering with a margin of safety that none of the rest of us amateurs can do.