The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 13

There are a bevy of interesting games with something on the line this week. Playoff games are on the line, bowl eligibility is on the line, and a few coaching jobs are on the line as Rivalry Week returns.
If you are a fan of a 5-6 team this week, you better hope that they win, because there is 0.01% chance or 1 in 10,000 that a bowl will have to take a team that is worse than 6-6. As of today, 71 teams are now bowl eligible. Three games this week will pit teams with identical 5-6 records, so three more are guaranteed to become bowl eligible, bringing the total to 74. There needs to be four more teams that will need one more win, and there are an additional 16 teams that have a chance to do so. The chances that 13 of these 16 teams lose their final game are less than the chances of the San Diego Padres facing the Chicago White Sox in the 2019 World Series.
Below, we take another look at each conference so you can determine which games you want to watch this week, or if you’d rather go shopping on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. You really should spend a few bucks with a locally owned small business this Saturday. We recommend our favorite jewelry artist, Marjorie Miller of Marjorie Miller Designs right here in the Music City at Beautiful Gifts for Her

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Northern Illinois -6.5 -6.0 -6.2
Miami (O) Ball St. 17.9 17.6 20.4

 

Thursday November 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Air Force Colorado St. 14.7 14.6 15.4
Ole Miss Mississippi St. -17.4 -16.1 -18.1

 

Friday November 23
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio U Akron 19.3 19.6 20.6
Cincinnati East Carolina 17.8 19.3 18.3
Kent St. Eastern Michigan -14.7 -15.2 -15.4
Bowling Green Buffalo -13.3 -14.5 -14.3
Iowa Nebraska 17.0 16.3 17.2
Kansas Texas -13.8 -13.8 -14.7
Missouri Arkansas 24.8 25.6 26.8
South Alabama Coastal Carolina -0.3 -1.0 -0.6
Toledo Central Michigan 19.6 18.8 19.5
South Florida Central Florida -21.0 -20.0 -21.5
Oregon St. Oregon -20.9 -22.8 -22.4
Memphis Houston 3.1 3.9 3.7
Virginia Tech Virginia -0.6 -2.1 -1.0
West Virginia Oklahoma -1.0 -0.7 -1.4
Washington St. Washington -1.6 -0.4 -2.1

 

Saturday November 24
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 6.0 5.0 5.5
Connecticut Temple -30.1 -29.9 -31.6
Louisville Kentucky -21.4 -20.6 -22.4
Clemson South Carolina 28.8 27.6 30.1
Michigan St. Rutgers 29.0 28.0 29.5
Georgia St. Georgia Southern -12.2 -12.3 -12.7
Florida Int’l. Marshall -2.1 -1.1 -2.5
Boston College Syracuse 7.6 6.8 8.0
Ohio St. Michigan -3.5 -4.2 -4.3
Northwestern Illinois 24.9 23.8 26.2
Georgia Georgia Tech 15.5 14.1 17.1
Duke Wake Forest 11.7 11.5 12.8
Wisconsin Minnesota 14.3 13.3 14.3
North Carolina North Carolina St. -11.6 -11.6 -11.2
Louisiana Tech Western Kentucky 12.4 11.6 12.4
Rice Old Dominion -13.1 -13.6 -14.0
UTEP Southern Miss. -13.3 -13.4 -14.0
Liberty New Mexico St. 11.0 8.6 11.4
Boise St. Utah St. 3.9 2.2 3.1
Utah BYU 17.8 15.8 17.6
Appalachian St. Troy 9.5 10.1 9.6
New Mexico Wyoming -8.5 -7.9 -9.0
Middle Tennessee UAB -2.1 -2.6 -1.8
California Colorado 12.9 10.6 12.8
UCLA Stanford -11.9 -10.1 -13.9
Vanderbilt Tennessee 4.3 3.6 4.8
TCU Oklahoma St. -2.2 -2.1 -3.7
Florida St. Florida -4.9 -4.5 -6.4
Penn St. Maryland 16.1 14.9 16.3
Baylor Texas Tech -7.0 -7.3 -6.2
Fresno St. San Jose St. 36.9 35.3 37.9
Iowa St. Kansas St. 11.8 11.5 12.3
Texas A&M LSU -1.4 -1.5 -1.7
Indiana Purdue -6.6 -6.0 -6.4
Tulane Navy 6.9 5.5 6.9
UL-Monroe Louisiana 5.3 3.7 4.6
Tulsa SMU -2.9 -2.9 -2.3
Florida Atlantic Charlotte 20.3 19.1 19.9
Texas St. Arkansas St. -13.8 -12.8 -15.0
UTSA North Texas -22.5 -20.9 -22.5
USC Notre Dame -17.3 -16.7 -17.8
Alabama Auburn 25.4 24.8 25.5
UNLV Nevada -13.3 -12.5 -13.4
San Diego St. Hawaii 20.3 18.8 21.5
Arizona Arizona St. -7.2 -7.3 -6.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 129.1 127.9 129.8 128.9
4 Georgia 127.8 125.3 129.0 127.3
5 Notre Dame 126.9 124.6 126.2 125.9
6 Mississippi St. 122.5 120.7 123.6 122.3
7 Ohio St. 122.6 120.6 122.4 121.9
8 Oklahoma 121.4 120.0 121.1 120.8
9 Washington 120.6 118.4 120.9 119.9
10 Missouri 119.8 118.3 120.8 119.6
11 L S U 117.9 117.0 118.7 117.9
12 Iowa 118.0 116.1 117.6 117.2
13 Auburn 117.1 116.0 118.6 117.2
14 West Virginia 117.4 116.3 116.7 116.8
15 Utah 116.9 115.5 117.5 116.7
16 Washington St. 117.0 116.0 116.8 116.6
17 Penn St. 117.4 114.9 116.9 116.4
18 Texas 114.9 113.5 114.6 114.3
19 Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.3 114.2
20 Stanford 114.8 112.5 115.0 114.1
21 Boston College 114.8 112.6 114.5 114.0
22 Texas A&M 114.0 113.0 114.5 113.8
23 Michigan St. 114.6 112.5 113.9 113.7
24 Miami 114.3 112.7 113.6 113.6
25 Georgia Tech 113.7 112.7 113.3 113.3
26 Fresno St. 113.3 112.7 113.5 113.2
27 Iowa State 113.8 112.2 113.4 113.1
28 N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.5 112.7 112.8
29 Florida 112.8 111.1 113.3 112.4
30 S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.5 111.4
31 Northwestern 111.8 110.3 111.8 111.3
32 Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3
33 Wisconsin 112.1 109.7 111.4 111.1
34 Boise St. 110.9 110.6 111.2 110.9
35 Utah St. 110.0 111.4 111.1 110.8
36 Pittsburgh 110.8 110.2 110.6 110.6
37 Kentucky 110.5 109.2 110.3 110.0
38 Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9
39 Oklahoma St. 110.3 108.8 110.3 109.8
40 Syracuse 110.2 108.9 109.5 109.5
41 Purdue 110.0 108.2 109.6 109.3
42 Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2
43 Texas Tech 108.8 107.3 107.6 107.9
44 California 108.3 106.2 108.3 107.6
45 Virginia 106.3 106.4 105.7 106.1
46 U S C 106.5 104.9 105.4 105.6
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.6 104.9 105.1
48 T C U 105.6 104.2 104.1 104.6
49 Temple 103.9 104.1 104.5 104.2
50 Kansas St. 104.5 103.2 103.6 103.8
51 Ohio U 103.0 104.2 103.9 103.7
52 Maryland 104.3 103.0 103.6 103.6
53 Ole Miss 103.7 103.2 104.0 103.6
54 Vanderbilt 103.5 103.4 103.7 103.6
55 Memphis 102.8 104.1 103.7 103.5
56 Nebraska 104.1 102.9 103.4 103.4
57 Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4
58 Virginia Tech 104.2 102.8 103.2 103.4
59 Houston 102.7 103.2 102.9 102.9
60 Cincinnati 100.9 102.4 101.2 101.5
61 Arizona 101.8 100.4 102.1 101.4
62 Wake Forest 102.5 100.7 100.7 101.3
63 BYU 100.6 101.3 101.4 101.1
64 Baylor 101.8 100.1 101.3 101.1
65 Indiana 101.4 100.3 101.2 101.0
66 Tennessee 100.8 101.3 100.4 100.8
67 N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9
68 Appalachian St. 98.6 100.6 100.2 99.8
69 U C L A 100.4 99.9 98.7 99.6
70 Minnesota 100.3 98.9 99.6 99.6
71 U A B 98.2 100.6 99.0 99.3
72 Buffalo 98.0 100.0 99.3 99.1
73 Colorado 98.4 98.6 98.5 98.5
74 Toledo 97.6 99.0 97.6 98.1
75 Northern Illinois 97.5 98.5 97.9 98.0
76 N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7
77 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
78 Kansas 98.1 96.7 96.9 97.2
79 San Diego St. 96.8 96.9 97.3 97.0
80 Arkansas 98.0 95.6 97.0 96.9
81 Miami (O) 95.5 97.3 97.7 96.8
82 Nevada 96.4 96.5 96.4 96.4
83 Air Force 95.9 96.5 96.3 96.2
84 Eastern Michigan 95.4 96.9 95.9 96.1
85 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
86 Wyoming 95.4 95.7 95.3 95.4
87 Middle Tennessee 93.6 95.5 94.7 94.6
88 SMU 94.8 94.4 94.0 94.4
89 Tulane 93.3 93.8 93.2 93.4
90 Troy 91.5 93.0 93.0 92.5
91 Louisiana Tech 91.5 93.5 92.0 92.3
92 South Florida 91.5 92.9 91.3 91.9
93 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.2 90.3 91.0
94 Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.5 90.9
95 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.7 90.5 90.7
96 Western Michigan 88.5 90.0 89.2 89.3
97 Tulsa 89.4 89.1 89.2 89.2
98 Navy 88.4 90.2 88.3 89.0
99 Rutgers 88.6 87.5 87.5 87.9
100 Illinois 88.5 87.9 87.2 87.9
101 Southern Miss. 85.9 89.0 86.5 87.2
102 Louisville 87.6 87.0 86.4 87.0
103 UL-Monroe 86.5 87.2 87.2 87.0
104 Akron 85.7 86.6 85.2 85.9
105 East Carolina 85.6 85.6 85.4 85.5
106 Oregon St. 86.2 84.2 85.2 85.2
107 New Mexico 84.4 85.3 83.7 84.5
108 Old Dominion 82.9 86.1 82.8 84.0
109 Louisiana 82.7 85.0 84.1 83.9
110 Colorado St. 83.2 83.9 82.9 83.3
111 W. Kentucky 81.6 84.4 82.0 82.7
112 Bowling Green 82.1 83.0 82.5 82.5
113 U N L V 81.6 82.5 81.5 81.9
114 Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5
115 Central Michigan 80.5 82.6 80.7 81.3
116 Hawaii 80.5 82.1 79.7 80.8
117 Ball St. 80.1 82.2 79.8 80.7
118 Liberty 80.6 79.9 80.8 80.5
119 Charlotte 79.2 81.7 80.0 80.3
120 Kent St. 78.7 79.7 78.5 79.0
121 San Jose St. 78.9 79.9 78.1 79.0
122 Coastal Carolina 76.1 78.4 76.6 77.0
123 Georgia St. 76.2 77.9 76.3 76.8
124 Texas State 74.1 76.6 74.5 75.1
125 South Alabama 73.3 74.9 73.5 73.9
126 U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8
127 N. Mexico St. 72.1 73.8 71.9 72.6
128 Connecticut 71.8 72.2 70.9 71.6
129 U T E P 70.6 73.7 70.6 71.6
130 Rice 67.8 70.5 66.8 68.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.3 114.2 7-0 10-0
Temple 103.9 104.1 104.5 104.2 6-1 7-4
Cincinnati 100.9 102.4 101.2 101.5 5-2 9-2
South Florida 91.5 92.9 91.3 91.9 3-4 7-4
East Carolina 85.6 85.6 85.4 85.5 1-6 3-7
Connecticut 71.8 72.2 70.9 71.6 0-7 1-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 102.8 104.1 103.7 103.5 4-3 7-4
Houston 102.7 103.2 102.9 102.9 5-2 8-3
SMU 94.8 94.4 94.0 94.4 4-3 5-6
Tulane 93.3 93.8 93.2 93.4 4-3 5-6
Tulsa 89.4 89.1 89.2 89.2 1-6 2-9
Navy 88.4 90.2 88.3 89.0 2-5 3-8
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 8-0 11-0
Boston College 114.8 112.6 114.5 114.0 4-3 7-4
N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.5 112.7 112.8 4-3 7-3
Syracuse 110.2 108.9 109.5 109.5 5-2 8-3
Florida St. 105.8 104.6 104.9 105.1 3-5 5-6
Wake Forest 102.5 100.7 100.7 101.3 2-5 5-6
Louisville 87.6 87.0 86.4 87.0 0-8 2-9
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 114.3 112.7 113.6 113.6 3-4 6-5
Georgia Tech 113.7 112.7 113.3 113.3 5-3 7-4
Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3 3-4 7-4
Pittsburgh 110.8 110.2 110.6 110.6 6-1 7-4
Virginia 106.3 106.4 105.7 106.1 4-3 7-4
Virginia Tech 104.2 102.8 103.2 103.4 3-4 4-6
N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9 1-6 2-8
ACC Averages 109.7 108.4 109.1 109.0
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.4 120.0 121.1 120.8 7-1 10-1
West Virginia 117.4 116.3 116.7 116.8 6-2 8-2
Texas 114.9 113.5 114.6 114.3 6-2 8-3
Iowa State 113.8 112.2 113.4 113.1 5-3 6-4
Oklahoma St. 110.3 108.8 110.3 109.8 3-5 6-5
Texas Tech 108.8 107.3 107.6 107.9 3-5 5-6
T C U 105.6 104.2 104.1 104.6 3-5 5-6
Kansas St. 104.5 103.2 103.6 103.8 3-5 5-6
Baylor 101.8 100.1 101.3 101.1 3-5 5-6
Kansas 98.1 96.7 96.9 97.2 1-7 3-8
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 129.1 127.9 129.8 128.9 8-0 10-1
Ohio St. 122.6 120.6 122.4 121.9 7-1 10-1
Penn St. 117.4 114.9 116.9 116.4 5-3 8-3
Michigan St. 114.6 112.5 113.9 113.7 4-4 6-5
Maryland 104.3 103.0 103.6 103.6 3-5 5-6
Indiana 101.4 100.3 101.2 101.0 2-6 5-6
Rutgers 88.6 87.5 87.5 87.9 0-8 1-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 118.0 116.1 117.6 117.2 4-4 7-4
Northwestern 111.8 110.3 111.8 111.3 7-1 7-4
Wisconsin 112.1 109.7 111.4 111.1 5-3 7-4
Purdue 110.0 108.2 109.6 109.3 4-4 5-6
Nebraska 104.1 102.9 103.4 103.4 3-5 4-7
Minnesota 100.3 98.9 99.6 99.6 2-6 5-6
Illinois 88.5 87.9 87.2 87.9 2-6 4-7
Big Ten Averages 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 3-4 5-6
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 5-2 7-3
Middle Tennessee 93.6 95.5 94.7 94.6 6-1 7-4
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.2 90.3 91.0 6-1 8-3
Old Dominion 82.9 86.1 82.8 84.0 2-5 4-7
W. Kentucky 81.6 84.4 82.0 82.7 1-6 2-9
Charlotte 79.2 81.7 80.0 80.3 3-4 4-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 98.2 100.6 99.0 99.3 7-0 9-2
N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7 4-3 8-3
Louisiana Tech 91.5 93.5 92.0 92.3 5-2 7-4
Southern Miss. 85.9 89.0 86.5 87.2 3-4 5-5
U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8 2-5 3-8
U T E P 70.6 73.7 70.6 71.6 1-6 1-10
Rice 67.8 70.5 66.8 68.4 0-7 1-11
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 126.9 124.6 126.2 125.9 x 11-0
Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4 x 9-2
BYU 100.6 101.3 101.4 101.1 x 6-5
Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5 x 4-8
Liberty 80.6 79.9 80.8 80.5 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.1 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-8
Indep. Averages 94.0 94.3 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 103.0 104.2 103.9 103.7 5-2 7-4
Buffalo 98.0 100.0 99.3 99.1 6-1 9-2
Miami (O) 95.5 97.3 97.7 96.8 5-2 5-6
Akron 85.7 86.6 85.2 85.9 2-5 4-6
Bowling Green 82.1 83.0 82.5 82.5 2-5 3-8
Kent St. 78.7 79.7 78.5 79.0 1-6 2-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.6 99.0 97.6 98.1 4-3 6-5
Northern Illinois 97.5 98.5 97.9 98.0 6-1 7-4
Eastern Michigan 95.4 96.9 95.9 96.1 4-3 6-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.0 89.2 89.3 4-3 6-5
Central Michigan 80.5 82.6 80.7 81.3 0-7 1-10
Ball St. 80.1 82.2 79.8 80.7 3-4 4-7
MAC Averages 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 110.9 110.6 111.2 110.9 6-1 9-2
Utah St. 110.0 111.4 111.1 110.8 7-0 10-1
Air Force 95.9 96.5 96.3 96.2 2-5 4-7
Wyoming 95.4 95.7 95.3 95.4 3-4 5-6
New Mexico 84.4 85.3 83.7 84.5 1-6 3-8
Colorado St. 83.2 83.9 82.9 83.3 2-5 3-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 113.3 112.7 113.5 113.2 6-1 9-2
San Diego St. 96.8 96.9 97.3 97.0 4-3 7-4
Nevada 96.4 96.5 96.4 96.4 5-2 7-4
U N L V 81.6 82.5 81.5 81.9 1-6 3-8
Hawaii 80.5 82.1 79.7 80.8 4-3 7-5
San Jose St. 78.9 79.9 78.1 79.0 1-6 1-10
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 120.6 118.4 120.9 119.9 6-2 8-3
Washington St. 117.0 116.0 116.8 116.6 7-1 10-1
Stanford 114.8 112.5 115.0 114.1 4-3 6-4
Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2 4-4 7-4
California 108.3 106.2 108.3 107.6 3-4 6-4
Oregon St. 86.2 84.2 85.2 85.2 1-7 2-9
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.9 115.5 117.5 116.7 6-3 8-3
Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9 4-4 6-5
U S C 106.5 104.9 105.4 105.6 4-5 5-6
Arizona 101.8 100.4 102.1 101.4 4-4 5-6
U C L A 100.4 99.9 98.7 99.6 3-5 3-8
Colorado 98.4 98.6 98.5 98.5 2-6 5-6
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 127.8 125.3 129.0 127.3 7-1 10-1
Missouri 119.8 118.3 120.8 119.6 3-4 7-4
Florida 112.8 111.1 113.3 112.4 5-3 8-3
S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.5 111.4 4-4 6-4
Kentucky 110.5 109.2 110.3 110.0 5-3 8-3
Vanderbilt 103.5 103.4 103.7 103.6 2-5 5-6
Tennessee 100.8 101.3 100.4 100.8 2-5 5-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0 7-0 11-0
Mississippi St. 122.5 120.7 123.6 122.3 3-4 7-4
L S U 117.9 117.0 118.7 117.9 5-2 9-2
Auburn 117.1 116.0 118.6 117.2 3-4 7-4
Texas A&M 114.0 113.0 114.5 113.8 4-3 7-4
Ole Miss 103.7 103.2 104.0 103.6 1-6 5-6
Arkansas 98.0 95.6 97.0 96.9 0-7 2-9
SEC Averages 114.4 113.2 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.6 100.6 100.2 99.8 6-1 8-2
Troy 91.5 93.0 93.0 92.5 7-0 9-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.7 90.5 90.7 5-2 8-3
Coastal Carolina 76.1 78.4 76.6 77.0 2-5 5-6
Georgia St. 76.2 77.9 76.3 76.8 1-6 2-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.5 90.9 4-3 7-4
UL-Monroe 86.5 87.2 87.2 87.0 4-3 6-5
Louisiana 82.7 85.0 84.1 83.9 4-3 6-5
Texas State 74.1 76.6 74.5 75.1 1-6 3-8
South Alabama 73.3 74.9 73.5 73.9 1-6 2-9
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.2 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 109.7 108.4 109.1 109.0
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
5 PAC12 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 IND 94.0 94.3 94.1 94.1
8 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
9 MAC 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

Group of 5 Teams Still in Running for NY6 Bowl

  1. Central Florida
  2. Utah St.
  3. Boise St.
  4. Fresno St.
  5. Army

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati Troy
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA SMU Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Memphis [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida UAB
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U San Diego St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College [Eastern Michigan]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Nevada] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Syracuse Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Texas Tech
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Miami (Fla.)
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Central Florida
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Standard

American Athletic
UCF vs. USF: Central Florida easily disposed of Cincinnati, and now they must end the regular season with a swooning South Florida team that looks all out of kilter. USF was 7-0 and has now lost four consecutive games. The Bulls play one good half and one bad half in nearly every game, and if this repeats itself, UCF should win by more than 20 points. However, we suspect USF will play its best game of the year, so this game could be closer than expected, especially if USF’s better half is the first half.

Time: Friday, 4:00 PM
TV: ESPN

Memphis vs. Houston: The West Division race is still up for grabs, and it will go to the winner of the Houston-Memphis game at the Liberty Bowl. Houston may have a little bit of dissension after some issues on the sidelines against Tulane last week. Memphis is playing its best ball of the season, and the Tigers enjoy a modicum of home field advantage. This game could have some head coaching implications. Major Applewhite is not a huge favorite in Houston, and a loss plus a bowl loss could put his job in jeopardy. On the other side, Memphis coach Mike Norvell could be on the short list of multiple Power 5 Conference jobs.
Time: Friday, 12:00 PM
TV: ABC

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Tulane vs. Navy, 12 Noon on ESPNU
SMU vs. Tulsa, 3:30 PM on CBSSN

Atlantic Coast
Clemson will play Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game, but there are other reasons to watch the Tigers this week. CU plays rival South Carolina, and this should give us all a chance to see Trevor Lawrence face a tough SEC defense. Somewhere down the road, Clemson might play for a National Championship against an even better SEC defense. In limited action earlier this year Lawrence was 5 of 9 for 99 yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M. South Carolina became bowl eligible against Chattanooga last night, and the Gamecocks added a late replacement game for their hurricane cancellation. They now play Akron next week, so there is a chance to get to 8-4 if they can pull off the big upset in this game. At 8-4, they could move up over Missouri and Auburn in the bowl pecking order.  Clemson vs. South Carolina

Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: ESPN

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida State vs. Florida, 12 PM on ABC
Wake Forest vs. Duke, 12:30 PM on ACCn

Big 12
This conference has multiple games of importance in both the Playoff and bowl picture. Let’s start by explaining how the Conference Championship Game looks.

Oklahoma leads Texas and West Virginia by one game in the standings, but the Sooners have not clinched a spot in the Championship Game. Oklahoma plays at West Virginia this week. Texas visits Kansas.

If Oklahoma wins, they are the #1 seed, and West Virginia falls to 6-3 in the league. If Texas then beats Kansas, it will be a rematch of the Red River Rivalry in Arlington, Texas, as the Longhorns will be 7-2.

If West Virginia beats Oklahoma, and Texas beats Kansas, then the Sooners are eliminated, while West Virginia and Texas play in the title game.

If Texas loses to Kansas in a monumental upset, then no matter what happens in the OU-WVU game, the two will play again the next week for the Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma needs to beat West Virginia and Texas and hope for Northwestern to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game to have any chance at making the Playoffs. There is a minor chance that they could get in if Notre Dame lays an egg at the Coliseum against USC this week, but the way the Trojans are playing, don’t bet on it.

There are three more important games in the Big 12 this week.  Texas Tech plays Baylor at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The winner earns a bowl bid, while the loser plays again next September. If the loser is Texas Tech, there’s a good chance that somebody other than Kliff KIngsbury will be coaching the Red Raiders in 2019. His job is not totally secure unless TTU wins this game and the bowl game.
Oklahoma State is bowl eligible thanks to the upset over West Virginia. The Cowboys close the season against TCU, and the 5-6 Horned Frogs need a win to become bowl eligible. TCU had several near misses, but their defense looked strong in stopping Baylor Saturday.
Kansas State might be playing its final game under the direction of legendary coach Bill Snyder. At 79, there’s a chance that Snyder will retire for good after this season. Kansas State is 5-6 and faces a tough finishing game against Iowa State in Ames. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell might also be leading his Cyclones on the field for the last time. He could easily be gobbled up by a bigger school looking to hire a new coach. Should Urban Meyer step down at Ohio State, a lot of insiders believe that Campbell would be on a very short list in Columbus.

Big 12 Key Game Schedule
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Time: Friday, 8 PM
TV; ESPN

Texas vs. Kansas
Time: Friday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Time: Saturday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.
Time: Saturday, 8 PM
TV: Fox

Kansas St. vs. Iowa St.
Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: FS1

 

Big Ten
Michigan vs. Ohio State: It’s all about the big rivalry game at the Giant Horseshoe. Michigan and Ohio State will meet for the annual grudge match, and the winner wins the East and stays in contention for the Playoffs. The loser most likely would get the consolation prize of a Rose Bowl game. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, which means they are zero for their last eight. In that span, they lose their most important game prior to this one, when they fell by a field goal in 2006. Expect a hard-fought effort on both sides, and the winner just may come out of this game at somewhat less than 100%, giving Northwestern a bit more chance to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Fox

Indiana and Purdue face off in Bloomington in a bowl qualification/elimination game. These may be the two best 5-6 teams in the nation, and the winner will be a tough 6-6 bowl team. Purdue may be playing with some distractions, as it appears as if Coach Jeff Brohm is halfway out the door and headed south to his Alma Mater in Louisville.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe must fall in the favor of Minnesota against Wisconsin if the Golden Gophers are to nab the Big Ten’s ninth bowl bid. UM is 5-6 and extremely inconsistent, sometimes in the same half of games. Wisconsin is coming in for a landing with a stalled engine, so this game should be close and relatively low scoring.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

Maryland has not won a game since D.J. Durkin was officially re-instated and then fired. The Terrapins were 5-3 and looking like a bowl team before the news hit. They have dropped three games in a row and must win at Penn State to become bowl eligible. Penn State is winning on fumes in November. The Nittany Lions’ offense has disappeared. Still, PSU looks like a prohibitive favorite in this game, and they actually still hold a remote chance of earning the final New Year’s Six Bowl bid. A win would almost guarantee them no worse than the Citrus or Outback Bowl games on New Year’s Day. Maryland vs. Penn St.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

Conference USA
CUSA lost any chance of sending a team to the Peach Bowl when UAB coughed up the ball too many times and lost at Texas A&M after coming out even in total yardage. The Blazers have clinched a berth in the CUSA Championship Game, and their contest at Middle Tennessee this week will still be important, because the East Division race is still to be decided. If Middle beats UAB, and Marshall beats Florida International, then Middle and UAB would play again next week in the CUSA Championship Game. If FIU beats Marshall and UAB beats Middle Tennessee, then FIU wins the East Division race.

Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
Time: 3PM, Saturday
TV: Online only at ESPN3

Florida International vs. Marshall
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Stadium and Facebook

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte
Time: Saturday, 6PM
TV: Stadium

Southern Mississippi vs. UTEP
Time: 3 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Independents
Notre Dame can become the first team to secure a spot in the Playoffs by topping USC in Los Angeles. USC will be playing for bowl eligibility as well as Coach Clay Helton’s job security. There might be a couple of NFL head coaches, including former coach Pete Carroll interested in taking the job if it becomes available, but we tend to believe Dino Babers might be the answer if this job opens up. As for the Irish, they are peaking at the right time. A double-digit win should leave Notre Dame in the 3-slot with a trip to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson the most likely scenario.  Notre Dame vs. USC

Time: 8 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

 

Mid-American
The MAC Championship Game will pit Buffalo and Northern Illinois unless the unthinkable happens, and the Bulls lose to a weak Bowling Green team. Should Buffalo lose, then Miami of Ohio has a chance to do the unthinkable for the second time in three years if they beat Ball St. Miami began 2016 at 0-6 and then won six games in a row to come from last to first and make a bowl game. This year the Red Hawks were 1-4 and then 3-6 before winning back-to-back games over favored Ohio and Northern Illinois teams. Ohio can only win the division if Buffalo and Miami both lose.
In the West, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan all have six wins and are bowl eligible, but there is little chance that all three will be invited to bowls. At least one of these three will miss out, so, it is important to get that seventh win this week.

Key MAC Games Schedule

Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPNU

Miami (O) vs. Ball St.
Time: 7PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPN+

Ohio U vs. Akron
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: CBSSN
Note: Akron is technically still in the running for bowl eligibility at 4-6, but the Zips must beat Ohio and then South Carolina, so we have eliminated them from the bowl team possibles.

Eastern Michigan vs. Kent St.
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online

Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Time: 7 PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPNU

Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online
Mountain West
Fresno State clinched a spot in the conference championship game and will face the winner of the Boise State-Utah State game. Utah State is playing for more than just a spot in the MWC Championship Game. They are the team on-deck should Central Florida fall to USF or in the AAC Championship Game. The Aggies could sneak into the Fiesta Bowl with wins over Boise State and Fresno State and a loss by UCF.

Boise State-Utah St.
Time: 10:15 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN

Wyoming is 5-6 and needs a win over New Mexico to become bowl eligible. Even at 6-6, the Cowboys have only a slim chance to earn a bowl bid.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: MWCn
Pac-12
Both division races will be decided this week. In the North Division race, it comes down to the Apple Cup game between Washington and Washington St. Washington State has not won the Apple Cup since Mike Leach’s first year in the Palouse. UW has won the last five years by better than three touchdowns per game. An impressive win over Washington combined with a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game could bring the Playoffs into view for WSU if Northwestern won the Big Ten Championship Game and Oklahoma did not win the Big 12 Championship.  Washington State vs. Washington

Time: 8:30 PM, Friday
TV: Fox

The South Division comes down to Utah or Arizona State. Utah has already finished their conference slate, and their game against BYU is strictly for bragging rights in the Beehive State. The Arizona State-Arizona game is the important one. If the Sun Devils win, then Coach Herm Edwards will force all those pundits to eat crow when they called his hiring a farce. ASU would win the South with a win over their rival. Arizona has a lot to play for as well. The Wildcats are 5-6 and must win to become bowl eligible, where they most likely would be shipped east as an at-large team for a bowl needing to fill a spot.

Arizona-Arizona State
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: FS1

Colorado was 5-0, and now the Buffaloes are 5-6. Coach Mike MacIntyre is on a hot seat in snowy Boulder, and CU must venture to smoky Berkeley to face a hot Cal team that got an unexpected week off last week. CU better hope that Cal is looking forward to the Stanford makeup game the following week and overlooks the Buffs, because CU hasn’t got much left in the tank at this point.  Colorado vs. California

Time: 7PM, Saturday
TV: Pac-12
Southeastern
Alabama and Georgia will meet in the next chapter of greatness in the SEC Championship Game next week, but both teams must not overlook their arch-rivals this week, both of whom come into this game in peak performance.

Alabama should have little problem with Auburn, but the Tide showed some vulnerabilities that Auburn, and then Georgia, and possibly Clemson can attack. By saying “vulnerabilities,” we refer to something similar to the 1927 New York Yankees being a little weak at third base with Jumping Joe Dugan. Auburn last beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 2010, but that team has Cam Newton at quarterback and still only won by a point.

Alabama vs. Auburn
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: CBS

Georgia cannot afford a loss to Georgia Tech, as the Bulldogs might not make the playoffs even if they subsequently beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Tech has made a big turnaround since starting the season 1-3. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall has a chance to reach 1,000 rushing yards with a good game here and another in the bowl game.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: SECn

Vanderbilt and Tennessee face off in Nashville with a bowl game going to the winner and the end of the line coming for the loser. Tennessee needs quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to return from a head and neck injury suffered Saturday against Missouri. Guarantano is worth more than a touchdown to the Vols compared to backup Keller Chryst. The Vols also have concerns at wideout where Marquez Callaway also was injured against Missouri. Vanderbilt has some injury concerns at quarterback as well, but it is their number two guy that will probably miss this game. Should anything happen to Kyle Shurmur, then the Commodores would be forced to put a true freshman with zero game experience into the most important game of their season. Vandy coach Derek Mason could receive some feelers from other job openings if he can guide the Commodores to their second bowl in three years. He was courted by California last year, and a possible opening or two in the Pac-12 could attract him.  Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Time: 4 PM, Saturday
TV: SECn

Sun Belt
Half of the league still holds SBC Championship Game aspirations. In the East, Troy plays Appalachian State, and the winner takes the division title and hosts the inaugural SBC Championship Game. The Mountaineers host this game and have not lost a conference game at home in more than three years. These two teams did not play each other last year when they tied for first, and the last two times they played, the games came down to the final minute.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

The West Division is currently log-jammed with three teams tied for first at 4-3. Louisiana holds the trump card in this three-way race. If the Ragin’ Cajuns defeat rival UL-Monroe, they will win the division title and play in the league title game. If UL-Monroe beats Louisiana, then Arkansas State would get in if the Red Wolves beat Texas State. If UL-Monroe wins and Arkansas State loses, then the Warhawks would win the division title outright.
Louisiana vs. UL-Monroe
Time: 3 PM ,Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Time: 4PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN3

 

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November 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Syracuse Louisville 10.5 Syracuse
Texas A&M Ole Miss 1.5 Texas A&M
Kansas St. Kansas 22 Kansas

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
West Virginia TCU 1.5 WVU
Eastern Michigan Akron 3 EMU
Duke North Carolina Pk Duke

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arizona St. UCLA 2.5 Arizona St.
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 9.5 Oklahoma
Purdue Minnesota 2.5 Purdue

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulane East Carolina 3.5 Tulane
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 10 Florida Atlantic
Georgia Auburn 24.5 Auburn

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cinciannati East Carolina 2.5 Cincinnati
Texas Tech Texas 8.5 Texas
UAB Southern Miss. 2.5 UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 4 NC St.
Florida South Carolina 20 S. Car.
BYU Massachusetts 27 UMass
Troy Georgia Southern 14.5 Ga. Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Kentucky 7 Kentucky
Colorado Washington St. 7 Washington St.
Louisiana Georgia St. 1 Louisiana
South Alabama UL-Monroe 7.5 UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win Must Lose
Ohio U Miami (O)
Northern Illinois Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Florida
Kansas Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Chicago 6.5 Chicago
Kansas City Arizona 3.5 Kansas City
Tennessee New England 6.5 New England
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10 Indianapolis

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Miami Green Bay 3 Green Bay
Seattle L.A. Rams 3 L.A. Rams
Dallas Philadelphia 6.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Cincinnati New Orleans 41 Over
Cleveland Atlanta 37.5 Over
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 24 Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 9

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:23 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 23
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
South Alabama Troy -11.2 -10.6 -11.9

 

Thursday October 25
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Toledo 1.0 1.6 2.2
Ohio U Ball St. 14.0 13.0 14.9
Georgia Southern Appalachian St. -8.3 -8.3 -9.2
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 3.9 4.1 4.0
West Virginia Baylor 12.4 13.2 11.7

 

Friday October 26
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Miami (Fla.) 1.5 0.3 1.4
Minnesota Indiana 3.6 3.6 3.3
UCLA Utah -13.9 -12.4 -17.0
Colorado St. Wyoming -8.0 -7.1 -7.6
Florida Atlantic Louisiana Tech 5.3 3.7 4.6

 

Saturday October 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Old Dominion Middle Tennessee -6.5 -4.5 -7.7
Syracuse North Carolina St. -0.5 -1.6 -1.3
Virginia North Carolina 10.4 11.6 10.3
Akron Central Michigan 9.6 8.5 9.7
Pittsburgh Duke -8.1 -6.9 -8.2
Maryland Illinois 16.4 15.5 16.5
Louisville Wake Forest -3.8 -1.6 -2.4
Northwestern Wisconsin -4.3 -3.6 -4.2
Eastern Michigan Army -6.0 -5.2 -5.6
Charlotte Southern Miss. -4.4 -5.3 -4.5
Kansas TCU -10.2 -10.4 -10.7
Connecticut Massachusetts -3.1 -4.6 -4.9
Georgia St. Coastal Carolina 3.0 2.5 3.1
Utah St. New Mexico 23.4 23.3 24.6
Colorado Oregon St. 23.7 27.2 26.6
UTEP UAB -20.5 -19.9 -21.7
BYU Northern Illinois 8.2 7.9 9.0
Nevada San Diego St. -3.7 -3.7 -4.2
Stanford Washington St. 7.5 5.9 8.1
USC Arizona St. 4.8 5.0 4.9
California Washington -13.4 -13.9 -15.0
Florida (n) Georgia -13.2 -11.7 -13.1
San Jose St. UNLV -3.9 -4.5 -5.8
Tulsa Tulane -0.4 -1.3 0.6
Mississippi St. Texas A&M 6.9 6.0 7.3
Missouri Kentucky 5.0 4.5 6.4
South Carolina Tennessee 16.3 14.7 16.4
Oklahoma St. Texas -1.1 -1.6 -0.9
North Texas Rice 34.8 34.6 37.3
Houston South Florida 10.0 9.0 10.7
Penn St. Iowa 7.0 6.2 7.2
Michigan St. Purdue 5.9 5.0 5.1
Western Kentucky Florida Int’l. -6.4 -7.3 -6.2
SMU Cincinnati -2.6 -4.6 -3.8
Arkansas Vanderbilt 2.9 0.2 1.8
Oklahoma Kansas St. 19.6 19.7 20.8
Louisiana Arkansas St. -2.4 -1.6 -2.8
Texas St. New Mexico St. 1.2 2.2 1.0
Iowa St. Texas Tech 4.8 4.4 5.6
Air Force Boise St. -11.6 -10.4 -11.6
Florida St. Clemson -23.9 -22.0 -24.9
Notre Dame Navy 36.6 31.7 36.0
Arizona Oregon -8.6 -10.2 -9.1
Fresno St. Hawaii 35.5 33.0 37.0

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Nebraska Bethune-Cookman 36.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

The PiRate Ratings are predictive and not meant to rank teams on what they have done to date.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.6 140.0
2 Clemson 135.5 132.8 136.1 134.8
3 Georgia 128.1 125.0 128.9 127.3
4 Michigan 126.6 125.4 127.2 126.4
5 Notre Dame 124.8 122.0 123.8 123.5
6 Ohio St. 123.2 121.2 123.3 122.6
7 Washington 122.8 120.9 123.9 122.5
8 Oklahoma 121.2 119.9 121.5 120.9
9 Penn St. 121.0 118.4 121.0 120.1
10 L S U 119.8 119.4 121.1 120.1
11 Mississippi St. 118.4 116.1 119.0 117.9
12 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
13 Missouri 116.4 114.9 117.6 116.3
14 Utah 116.3 114.6 117.1 116.0
15 Michigan St. 116.9 114.7 116.2 116.0
16 Miami 116.2 114.8 115.7 115.6
17 Auburn 115.2 114.0 116.8 115.3
18 Wisconsin 115.9 113.4 115.4 114.9
19 Stanford 115.6 113.1 115.8 114.8
20 Florida 114.9 113.3 115.8 114.6
21 Central Florida 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.4
22 Texas A&M 114.5 113.2 114.7 114.1
23 Kentucky 114.4 113.4 114.2 114.0
24 Boston College 114.7 112.1 114.1 113.7
25 Purdue 114.1 112.7 114.1 113.6
26 Texas 113.8 112.4 113.3 113.1
27 Iowa State 113.1 111.5 112.9 112.5
28 N. Carolina St. 112.6 112.1 112.4 112.4
29 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
30 Oregon 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.3
31 Duke 112.9 110.9 112.3 112.1
32 Virginia Tech 112.5 111.5 112.1 112.0
33 West Virginia 112.7 111.7 111.8 112.0
34 S. Carolina 112.5 111.3 112.1 112.0
35 Georgia Tech 111.5 110.4 111.1 111.0
36 Washington St. 111.1 110.2 110.7 110.7
37 Texas Tech 111.3 110.1 110.4 110.6
38 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.8 109.5
39 T C U 110.3 109.1 108.9 109.4
40 Oklahoma St. 109.7 107.8 109.4 108.9
41 U S C 109.5 108.1 109.1 108.9
42 Northwestern 109.1 107.4 108.7 108.4
43 Utah St. 107.6 108.8 108.8 108.4
44 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.1 108.3
45 Florida St. 108.6 107.8 108.2 108.2
46 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
47 Arizona St. 107.7 106.2 107.1 107.0
48 California 106.4 104.0 105.9 105.4
49 Colorado 104.3 105.3 105.4 105.0
50 Army 103.9 104.6 104.1 104.2
51 Kansas St. 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8
52 Maryland 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8
53 Houston 103.2 104.0 103.7 103.6
54 Ole Miss 103.3 102.8 103.6 103.2
55 Baylor 103.3 101.5 103.0 102.6
56 Temple 102.2 102.2 102.9 102.4
57 Memphis 100.8 102.3 101.6 101.6
58 Appalachian St. 100.4 102.2 102.0 101.5
59 Pittsburgh 101.7 101.0 101.1 101.3
60 Vanderbilt 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.1
61 Wake Forest 102.3 100.1 100.1 100.8
62 BYU 100.4 100.9 101.0 100.7
63 San Diego St. 100.0 100.1 100.6 100.2
64 N. Texas 99.1 101.5 99.9 100.1
65 Arizona 100.6 98.9 100.7 100.0
66 Buffalo 99.0 101.0 100.1 100.0
67 Minnesota 100.5 99.4 100.0 100.0
68 N. Carolina 100.2 99.3 99.8 99.8
69 Arkansas 101.0 98.4 99.9 99.8
70 Nebraska 100.6 99.3 99.2 99.7
71 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
72 Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.7 99.2
73 Cincinnati 98.4 100.0 98.8 99.0
74 U C L A 99.5 99.2 97.1 98.6
75 U A B 95.7 98.3 96.6 96.9
76 South Florida 96.2 98.0 96.0 96.7
77 Marshall 95.1 97.7 96.2 96.4
78 Kansas 97.1 95.6 95.2 96.0
79 Toledo 95.5 96.7 95.3 95.8
80 Eastern Michigan 94.9 96.4 95.5 95.6
81 Florida Atlantic 95.2 96.0 95.6 95.6
82 Northern Illinois 95.2 95.9 95.0 95.4
83 Air Force 95.1 95.7 95.2 95.3
84 Louisville 95.5 95.5 94.7 95.2
85 Miami (O) 93.8 95.5 96.1 95.1
86 Ohio U 94.1 95.3 94.8 94.7
87 Western Michigan 93.5 95.2 94.5 94.4
88 Wyoming 94.5 94.5 94.1 94.3
89 Louisiana Tech 92.9 95.3 94.0 94.0
90 Nevada 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.3
91 Tulane 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.1
92 SMU 92.8 92.3 92.0 92.4
93 Middle Tennessee 91.3 92.7 92.2 92.1
94 Navy 91.2 93.3 90.7 91.8
95 Troy 90.8 92.1 92.1 91.7
96 Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.2 89.8 90.8
97 Illinois 91.3 90.7 90.2 90.7
98 Akron 90.1 91.3 90.3 90.6
99 Tulsa 90.3 89.6 90.8 90.2
100 Georgia Southern 89.1 90.9 89.8 89.9
101 Arkansas St. 87.0 88.4 88.5 88.0
102 New Mexico 87.2 88.5 87.1 87.6
103 Southern Miss. 84.4 87.6 85.0 85.7
104 Rutgers 85.9 84.8 84.2 85.0
105 Colorado St. 84.5 85.3 84.4 84.7
106 U N L V 83.4 84.8 83.7 84.0
107 Central Michigan 83.0 85.3 83.2 83.8
108 Ball St. 83.1 85.3 82.9 83.8
109 Old Dominion 82.3 85.7 82.0 83.4
110 Louisiana 82.1 84.3 83.3 83.2
111 East Carolina 83.2 82.9 82.6 82.9
112 UL-Monroe 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.3
113 Oregon St. 83.6 81.1 81.7 82.1
114 W. Kentucky 80.4 83.4 81.1 81.6
115 Liberty 81.4 80.6 81.6 81.2
116 Hawaii 81.0 82.7 79.9 81.2
117 Massachusetts 80.3 82.2 81.0 81.2
118 Georgia St. 78.9 80.8 79.5 79.7
119 Coastal Carolina 78.3 80.8 78.9 79.3
120 Kent St. 78.7 79.9 78.6 79.1
121 Bowling Green 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.8
122 U T S A 77.2 81.2 77.8 78.8
123 Charlotte 77.5 79.9 78.0 78.5
124 South Alabama 76.6 78.5 77.2 77.4
125 San Jose St. 77.0 77.8 75.4 76.7
126 Connecticut 75.2 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.7 75.9 72.5 73.7
128 N. Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5
129 Texas State 71.6 74.4 71.5 72.5
130 Rice 66.2 68.8 64.6 66.6

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.4 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.2 102.2 102.9 102.4 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.4 100.0 98.8 99.0 2-1 6-1
South Florida 96.2 98.0 96.0 96.7 3-0 7-0
East Carolina 83.2 82.9 82.6 82.9 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.2 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 103.2 104.0 103.7 103.6 3-0 6-1
Memphis 100.8 102.3 101.6 101.6 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.1 1-2 2-5
SMU 92.8 92.3 92.0 92.4 2-1 3-4
Navy 91.2 93.3 90.7 91.8 1-3 2-5
Tulsa 90.3 89.6 90.8 90.2 0-3 1-6
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.0 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 135.5 132.8 136.1 134.8 4-0 7-0
Boston College 114.7 112.1 114.1 113.7 2-1 5-2
N. Carolina St. 112.6 112.1 112.4 112.4 1-1 5-1
Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.1 108.3 2-2 5-2
Florida St. 108.6 107.8 108.2 108.2 2-3 4-3
Wake Forest 102.3 100.1 100.1 100.8 0-3 3-4
Louisville 95.5 95.5 94.7 95.2 0-4 2-5
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.2 114.8 115.7 115.6 2-1 5-2
Duke 112.9 110.9 112.3 112.1 1-2 5-2
Virginia Tech 112.5 111.5 112.1 112.0 3-0 4-2
Georgia Tech 111.5 110.4 111.1 111.0 1-3 3-4
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 3-1 5-2
Pittsburgh 101.7 101.0 101.1 101.3 2-1 3-4
N. Carolina 100.2 99.3 99.8 99.8 1-3 1-5
ACC Averages 110.1 108.9 109.5 109.5
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.2 119.9 121.5 120.9 3-1 6-1
Texas 113.8 112.4 113.3 113.1 4-0 6-1
Iowa State 113.1 111.5 112.9 112.5 2-2 3-3
West Virginia 112.7 111.7 111.8 112.0 3-1 5-1
Texas Tech 111.3 110.1 110.4 110.6 3-1 5-2
T C U 110.3 109.1 108.9 109.4 1-3 3-4
Oklahoma St. 109.7 107.8 109.4 108.9 1-3 4-3
Kansas St. 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 1-3 3-4
Baylor 103.3 101.5 103.0 102.6 2-2 4-3
Kansas 97.1 95.6 95.2 96.0 0-4 2-5
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.6 125.4 127.2 126.4 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.2 121.2 123.3 122.6 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 121.0 118.4 121.0 120.1 2-2 5-2
Michigan St. 116.9 114.7 116.2 116.0 3-2 4-3
Maryland 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 2-2 4-3
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-4 4-4
Rutgers 85.9 84.8 84.2 85.0 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-1 6-1
Wisconsin 115.9 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 5-2
Purdue 114.1 112.7 114.1 113.6 3-1 4-3
Northwestern 109.1 107.4 108.7 108.4 4-1 4-3
Minnesota 100.5 99.4 100.0 100.0 0-4 3-4
Nebraska 100.6 99.3 99.2 99.7 1-4 1-6
Illinois 91.3 90.7 90.2 90.7 1-3 3-4
Big Ten Averages 109.0 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.1 97.7 96.2 96.4 3-1 5-2
Florida Atlantic 95.2 96.0 95.6 95.6 1-2 3-4
Middle Tennessee 91.3 92.7 92.2 92.1 3-1 4-3
Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.2 89.8 90.8 3-0 5-2
Old Dominion 82.3 85.7 82.0 83.4 1-4 2-6
W. Kentucky 80.4 83.4 81.1 81.6 0-3 1-6
Charlotte 77.5 79.9 78.0 78.5 2-2 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.1 101.5 99.9 100.1 2-2 6-2
U A B 95.7 98.3 96.6 96.9 4-0 6-1
Louisiana Tech 92.9 95.3 94.0 94.0 3-1 5-2
Southern Miss. 84.4 87.6 85.0 85.7 2-1 3-3
U T S A 77.2 81.2 77.8 78.8 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.7 75.9 72.5 73.7 0-3 0-7
Rice 66.2 68.8 64.6 66.6 0-4 1-7
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.8 122.0 123.8 123.5 x 7-0
Army 103.9 104.6 104.1 104.2 x 5-2
BYU 100.4 100.9 101.0 100.7 x 4-3
Liberty 81.4 80.6 81.6 81.2 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.3 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 2-6
N. Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5 x 2-6
Indep. Averages 93.9 94.2 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.0 101.0 100.1 100.0 4-0 7-1
Miami (O) 93.8 95.5 96.1 95.1 3-1 3-5
Ohio U 94.1 95.3 94.8 94.7 2-1 4-3
Akron 90.1 91.3 90.3 90.6 1-2 3-3
Kent St. 78.7 79.9 78.6 79.1 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.8 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 95.5 96.7 95.3 95.8 1-2 3-4
Eastern Michigan 94.9 96.4 95.5 95.6 2-3 4-4
Northern Illinois 95.2 95.9 95.0 95.4 4-0 4-3
Western Michigan 93.5 95.2 94.5 94.4 4-0 6-2
Central Michigan 83.0 85.3 83.2 83.8 0-4 1-7
Ball St. 83.1 85.3 82.9 83.8 2-2 3-5
MAC Averages 90.0 91.4 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.8 109.5 3-1 5-2
Utah St. 107.6 108.8 108.8 108.4 3-0 6-1
Air Force 95.1 95.7 95.2 95.3 1-3 3-4
Wyoming 94.5 94.5 94.1 94.3 0-4 2-6
New Mexico 87.2 88.5 87.1 87.6 1-2 3-4
Colorado St. 84.5 85.3 84.4 84.7 2-2 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 3-0 6-1
San Diego St. 100.0 100.1 100.6 100.2 3-0 6-1
Nevada 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.3 2-2 4-4
U N L V 83.4 84.8 83.7 84.0 0-3 2-5
Hawaii 81.0 82.7 79.9 81.2 3-1 6-3
San Jose St. 77.0 77.8 75.4 76.7 0-3 0-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.8 120.9 123.9 122.5 4-1 6-2
Stanford 115.6 113.1 115.8 114.8 3-1 5-2
Oregon 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.3 2-2 5-2
Washington St. 111.1 110.2 110.7 110.7 3-1 6-1
California 106.4 104.0 105.9 105.4 1-3 4-3
Oregon St. 83.6 81.1 81.7 82.1 0-4 1-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.3 114.6 117.1 116.0 3-2 5-2
U S C 109.5 108.1 109.1 108.9 3-2 4-3
Arizona St. 107.7 106.2 107.1 107.0 1-3 3-4
Colorado 104.3 105.3 105.4 105.0 2-2 5-2
Arizona 100.6 98.9 100.7 100.0 2-3 3-5
U C L A 99.5 99.2 97.1 98.6 2-2 2-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.1 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.1 125.0 128.9 127.3 4-1 6-1
Missouri 116.4 114.9 117.6 116.3 0-3 4-3
Florida 114.9 113.3 115.8 114.6 4-1 6-1
Kentucky 114.4 113.4 114.2 114.0 4-1 6-1
S. Carolina 112.5 111.3 112.1 112.0 2-3 3-3
Vanderbilt 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.1 0-4 3-5
Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.7 99.2 1-3 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.6 140.0 5-0 8-0
L S U 119.8 119.4 121.1 120.1 4-1 7-1
Mississippi St. 118.4 116.1 119.0 117.9 1-3 4-3
Auburn 115.2 114.0 116.8 115.3 2-3 5-3
Texas A&M 114.5 113.2 114.7 114.1 3-1 5-2
Ole Miss 103.3 102.8 103.6 103.2 1-3 5-3
Arkansas 101.0 98.4 99.9 99.8 0-4 2-6
SEC Averages 114.2 112.9 114.6 113.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 100.4 102.2 102.0 101.5 3-0 5-1
Troy 90.8 92.1 92.1 91.7 3-0 5-2
Georgia Southern 89.1 90.9 89.8 89.9 3-0 6-1
Georgia St. 78.9 80.8 79.5 79.7 1-2 2-5
Coastal Carolina 78.3 80.8 78.9 79.3 1-2 4-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.0 88.4 88.5 88.0 1-2 4-3
Louisiana 82.1 84.3 83.3 83.2 1-2 3-4
UL-Monroe 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.3 2-2 4-4
South Alabama 76.6 78.5 77.2 77.4 1-2 2-5
Texas State 71.6 74.4 71.5 72.5 0-4 1-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.7 85.5 84.5 84.6

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.2 112.9 114.6 113.9
2 ACC 110.1 108.9 109.5 109.5
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.0 107.5 108.5 108.4
5 P-12 107.5 106.1 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.0 95.3
7 IND 93.9 94.2 94.1 94.1
8 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
9 MAC 90.0 91.4 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.1 86.7
11 SUN 83.7 85.5 84.5 84.6

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Fresno St.
4 San Diego St.
5 Houston

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. Louisiana Tech
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Utah St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois UL-Monroe
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large [Middle Tennessee] [Coastal Carolina]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Western Michigan Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Colorado]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA North Texas [BYU]
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Toledo] Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Duke [Troy]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Michigan Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Utah
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Purdue LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Iowa Fresno St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Texas
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Key Games This Week

There may not be as many marquee games this week as there were last week, but because the season is now past the halfway mark, regular games begin to have more meaning as teams with no championship hopes look to secure bowl bids.

There are a number of games where the winner might greatly improve bowl chances and that could be bowl elimination games for the loser.  Let’s take a quick look at some excellent games on this week’s schedule.

First, on Thursday night, you get five different games, and there is no World Series game, as the teams will travel across the land that day.

Thursday

Western Michigan vs. Toledo: The Broncos are now the favorite to win the West Division and maybe run the table the rest of the way, while Toledo is looking like it could be team #78 out of 78 bowl teams.  The MAC looks like it will have six bowl eligible teams, but five will only get bowl bids.  Toledo and Ohio may be competing for that fifth spot.

Ohio U vs. Ball St.: This is the other half of the MAC equation.  If the Bobcats falter in this game, then they are looking at 5-7.  It’s a must-win game for Ball St., but the schedule does not give them enough winnable games in November to recover from 3-5 to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian St.: The Sun Belt East Division title may be decided Thursday night.  After trying the more conventional style of play with total failure, GSU has gone back to what worked for them for many years–the spread triple option, and it is working.  Appy State enters this game looking like a team that still holds out hope for a Peach Bowl bid if UCF, USF, Houston, and Fresno State lose games down the stretch and they run the table.  This may be the best game of the night and one you will want to watch.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is running out of time to get to six wins with a closing stretch of games against Miami, Virginia, and Georgia.  If Paul Johnson’s team is to finish 3-2, it almost has to include an upset win here.  Virginia Tech finishes with four home games in their final five, and the Hokies have the inside track to the Coastal Division flag.

West Virginia vs. Baylor: West Virginia’s playoff chances probably ended with the loss to Iowa St., but if the Mountaineers run the table, a Sugar Bowl bid is likely their reward.  Baylor needs two wins in their final five games to return to a bowl after a brief absence, and to pull off the trick, the Bears are going to have to upset two teams, because they will be underdogs in all five games.

Friday

Boston College vs. Miami (Fla.): Both teams are still alive for the Camping World bid, but most likely, these two are competing for one of the #3 priority bowls.

Minnesota vs. Indiana: This is a pure bowl elimination game.  The winner stays alive, and the loser is done.

UCLA vs. Utah: The Bruins have won back-to-back games after starting 0-5.  It’s been done before, where a team loses multiple games to start the season and comes back to earn a bowl bid.  A couple years ago, Miami of Ohio started 0-6 and finished 6-6.  Can Chip Kelly work his magic?  If UCLA beats Utah, the Bruins would move into a first place tie in the Pac-12 South.  Of course, if Utah wins, the Utes make a big move forward toward winning the South.  Stay up late and watch this game.

Saturday

Syracuse vs. North Carolina St: After the Wolf Pack’s drubbing at the hands of Clemson, they have no room for error left in the remaining part of their schedule if they want to contend for a New Year’s Six Bowl game.  Not having the West Virginia game on their schedule, they must run the table and finish 11-1.  Syracuse is one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.  This game should be interesting.

Pittsburgh vs. Duke: Pitt has to win this game, or it’s no bowl game for the Panthers in 2018.  Duke is out of the ACC Coastal Division title race, but they need just one more win to become bowl eligible.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin: Four of the seven teams in the Big Ten West Division have one conference loss, and these are two of them.  Neither team is playing as well as predicted this year, as they tend to win ugly.  Northwestern has been forced to come from behind two weeks in a row, including their most previous game against Rutgers.  This was the closest game for the Badgers last year when they ran the table to the Big Ten Championship Game, and it should be close and low-scoring this year.

Eastern Michigan vs. Army: What?  You say this game is a nothing game?  Think again.  These are two teams that will still be playing after December 15.  Army has a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 1996.  EMU needs to win three more games to clinch its second winning season in the last three years.  Expect the scoreboard to get a lot of action in this one.

Nevada vs. San Diego St.: San Diego State barely beat winless San Jose State, while Nevada won big at Hawaii.  This game looks more like a tossup now than it did a couple weeks ago.  SDSU is still in the Mountain West West Division race with Fresno St., but the Aztecs are looking like a runner-up at the moment.

Stanford vs. Washington St.: The Pirate is not a PiRate, but Mike Leach has done an amazing job in Pullman.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Cougars, but after beating Oregon, Washington State is a co-favorite to win the Pac-12 North.  One of the other two co-favorites is their opponent Saturday, and this game will be played on the Farm, where Stanford rarely loses these days.  The winner is in great shape to become the North Division representative in the conference title game.

California vs. Washington: This is an excellent opportunity for the Bears to pick up a statement win at home.  Washington has not been the team the so-called experts thought they would be, and their chances to win the North Division title are no better than their arch-rival’s, and Stanford’s.  A Cal upset comes close to guaranteeing the Golden Bears a 6-6 season and bowl bid.

Florida vs. Georgia: The winner becomes the heavy favorite to get the chance to be embarrassed by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Both teams had an open date to prepare for this game, and both teams’ coaching staffs can prepare excellent game plans.  Expect this game to be low scoring, and the winner may not emerge until the final five to seven minutes.  The winner is the leading contender for the Sugar Bowl, while the loser could still nab a Peach Bowl bid.

Mississippi St. vs. Texas A&M: Texas A&M has lost to Clemson and Alabama, so their 5-2 record is deceiving.  Jimbo Fisher has done an incredible job in his first year at A&M, and if he can lead his team to a road victory, the Aggies might become the favorite to be number two overall in this league and even get into the discussion for a Sugar Bowl bid.

Missouri vs. Kentucky: Kentucky’s incredible 5-0 start hit a snag when the Wildcats’ one-dimensional offense could do nothing against Texas A&M.  Then, it continued to sputter against a Vanderbilt team that is 0-4 in conference play.  Missouri’s defense won’t be able to shut down the Wildcats’ offense, but they still may be able to outscore the ‘Cats and end Kentucky’s chances of winning the SEC East.  Missouri is most likely looking at a Liberty or Music City Bowl bid unless they run the table and finish 9-3.

Oklahoma St. vs. Texas: 2005 was 13 seasons ago.  That’s the last time Oklahoma State failed to earn a bowl bid or end the season with a winning record.  The Cowboys are starting to look like a man on a safari that just put his right foot in quicksand.  A loss at home to Texas will square OSU’s record at 4-4 with some tough November games and most likely a 5-7 record.  Texas now has a legitimate chance to sneak into the Playoffs if the Longhorns can run the table and finish 12-1.  After this game, the toughest remaining games would be home games.  A rematch with the Sooners or possibly with the Mountaineers could get the Longhorns into the #4 position.

Houston vs. South Florida: USF has fiddled its way to a 7-0 record, but if the Bulls start slow this week, they will be 7-1 on Sunday.  Houston is on a roll and almost for sure will win the AAC West Division title.  If they can knock off USF and then beat Central Florida in the Championship Game, the Cougars could be Fiesta-bowl bound.  A loss along the way probably keeps them in an in-state bowl in December.  If USF should put together a four-quarter effort and win this game, then the Bulls are going to gain enough confidence to knock off UCF in Tampa in the regular season finale.

Penn St. vs. Iowa: Three weeks ago, this would have been considered a cinch win for Penn St., but the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and then Michigan State.  They just barely survived a trip to Indiana.  Iowa has two big road games back-to-back starting with this one and then continuing with Purdue in West Lafayette the following week.  The Hawkeyes look like the best overall team in the Big Ten West, but it will be close to impossible for Kirk Ferentz’s team to win both of the two road games.

Michigan St. vs. Purdue: Michigan St. might play its best game of the year this week.  The team has got to be feeling quite upset after they did absolutely nothing against Michigan.  Purdue is going to bounce somewhat after pulling off the big win over Ohio State.  Just look at what happened to Iowa last year the week after they slaughtered Ohio State; Wisconsin slaughtered them.  We don’t think Sparty  can slaughter any Big Ten team remaining on their schedule, and that includes a home game with Rutgers.  But, they have just enough talent and a huge chip on their shoulders, so this game should be much closer than expected.

Louisiana vs. Arkansas St.: The Sun Belt West Division is totally up for grabs entering the last five weeks of the regular season, as four of the five teams have two conference losses.  The winner of this game takes a giant leg up on the rest of the contenders and also comes very close to cinching bowl eligibility.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Believe it or not, but both teams still have a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as the number two seed.  This is a contrast of two coaches on the rise for different reasons.  Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is moving up to the top tier of the coaching pyramid for the next big-time opening.  He could be coaching at a national power in the next couple of years.  Kliff Kingsbury was almost one foot out the door in Lubbock last month, but wins over TCU and Oklahoma State have him back on somewhat solid ground, as the Red Raiders need just one more win to clinch a bowl bid.

Air Force vs. Boise St.: The Falcons need to go 3-2 in to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is sneaky and tricky the rest of the way.  The two hardest remaining games are this one and the next one at Army.  Losses in both games means AFA would have to win their last three to become bowl eligible.  Boise State has an uphill climb to make the MWC Championship Game, as they are a game behind Utah State, and they must still play Fresno State.  A loss here gives the Mountain Division title to Utah State.

Florida St. vs. Clemson: This game has such a history, but history is probably all Florida State fans can hold onto in this game.  Clemson should win by double digits in this one, but stranger things have happened.  Clemson has lost games as big favorites the prior two years, and this looks like a trap game.  The Seminoles must upset somebody in order to become bowl eligible.

Fresno St. vs. Hawaii: This game won’t end until the wee hours of the morning on the East Coast, so a lot of the Eastern elite press will not give it much notice.  However, you can stay up and watch it on ESPN2.  Fresno State is like a horse with a great closing run that is sitting 7 lengths off the pace in a Stakes race but has been on the rail saving ground since the start.  The Bulldogs lost early at Minnesota and have a win at UCLA.  They sit at 6-1, and there isn’t an opponent left on the schedule they cannot beat.  This race is shaping up so that Jeff Tedford’s team could go 12-1.  Now, it is up to those speed horses up front to fall back to the pack.  If USF, UCF, and Houston lose another game this year and FSU wins out, then the Bulldogs should earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.  Hawaii should not give Fresno much of a challenge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 19, 2018

An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Filed under: News & Views — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:37 am

The PiRate Ratings consist of a group of mathematical nerds that love to look at ratings of all types.  Sports ratings dominate about 95% of what we publish, but we are big-time followers of the political scene, as our founder was once a journalist and has worked as an official in past elections.

We do not have our own polling data.  However, we handicap other polls based on past accuracy and whether the polls show bias one way or another.  Then, we go use the various dates of each handicapped poll and use linear regression analysis to come up with a prediction.

This takes a lot of time to search for the polls we believe are the most accurate.  Very few were all that accurate in 2016, but there were some major polling efforts that showed President Trump leading the electoral vote count in the final days before the election.

Today, we look at the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and the Gubernatorial Races.  The result is a split decision for 2019.

The United States Senate

Safe Seats

21 of the 35 seats are considered safe, where the candidate in the lead today has a greater than 95% chance of winning in November.

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)
Feinstein is like a Supreme Court Justice in the Golden State. She will hold this seat for life, or until she retires. This easily stays a safe seat for the Democrats.

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)
Connecticut has become much bluer in the last 15 years, and Murphy will win this seat with token opposition to retain it for the Democrats.

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)
Carper is almost as safe as if he were running unopposed. This seat is retained by the Democrats.

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)
The same thing about Carper applies here. Hirano cruises to an easy victory to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats, so this seat in essence is retained by the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)
Cardin wins a third term in a safe race to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Her chances of becoming the next President are most likely gone now, but Warren should retain this seat for the Democrats by a healthy margin.

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)
This seat remains Democrat with a safe win for Stabenow.

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Klobuchar should win re-election by a landslide of more than 20% to retain this seat for the Democrats

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D)
This race was never all that close, and Smith has maintained a double-digit lead to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)
Wicker may score the largest GOP landslide victory in the 2018 elections to retain this seat for the Republicans

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)
Fischer has a large lead and will win a second term in the Cornhusker State and retain this seat for the Republicans.

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)
Like Fischer, Heinrich easily wins re-election to a second term and retains this seat for the Democrats

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
This could be the largest landslide victory for the party of Jefferson and Jackson. Gillibrand will then have to address the rumors about whether or not she will launch a Presidentail campaign for the 2020 election. The Democrats retain this seat.

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)
This race was never close, and the Democrats will easily retain it in a landslide.

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
It’s a third term for Whitehouse, and the Democrats retain this seat.

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)
The former GOP Presidential candidate will win by 30+% to retain this seat for the Republicans.

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats and will win re-election by a large landslide. His announcement for the 2020 Presidential race should come sometime in the Spring or early Summer of 2019.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)
The former Vice-presidential candidate and running mate for Hillary Clinton might become a Presidential contender in 2020, but for now, he retains this seat for the Democrats.

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)
Cantwell wins for the fourth time and could stay in this seat for two or three more terms. She won by less than 1% in 2000, by 17% in 2006, and by 20+% in 2012, and she could win by 20+% again this time. The Democrats keep this seat.

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)
Barrasso should win this race by 50%, to safely retain this seat for the Republicans.

 

Contested Seats

Arizona
Martha McSally (R) 52.5
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47.5
Arizona stays Republican after negative ads against Sinema, using her own voice, are quite effective.

Florida
Bill Nelson (D) 50.3
Rick Scott (R) 49.7
Florida race is too close to call at this point, but if the election were today, Nelson would retain this seat for the Democrats.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D) 48.2
Mike Braun (R) 47.4
Lucy Brenton (L) 4.4
This race is trending toward Donnelly in the most recent polls, and the Democrats look like they will retain this seat unless something drastic changes the race in the final two weeks.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 37.2
Mike Espy (D) 34.7
Chris McDaniel (R) 24.0
Toby Bartee (D) 4.1
It’s hard to see how Mississippi would flip, but Espy is probably the Democrats’ best possible candidate in the Magnolia State. This race is too close to call, but if the general election were held today, Hyde-Smith would win to keep this seat Republican.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R) 51.5
Claire McCaskill (D) 48.5
This race now looks like it is trending to Hawley after Project Veritas releases damaging evidence in McCaskill’s own words on hiding her actual stance on gun control with the quote that “People just can’t know that.” This state will flip from Democrat to Republican.

Montana
Jon Tester (D) 51.1
Matt Rosendale (R) 48.9
Tester holds on to a narrow lead, but the President has been in Big Sky Country four times in this election cycle, and this race has moved from leaning Democrat to narrowly Democrat. It is too close to call officially, but if the election were today, Tester would squeak by with re-election and keep this seat Democrat.

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D) 53.8
Bob Hugin (R) 46.2
This seat is close to safe for a Menendez re-election, and the Democrats retain it.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R) 53.7
Jacky Rosen (D) 46.3
This race was closer earlier in the campaign cycle, but Heller has a somewhat comfortable lead and should retain this seat for the Republicans.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R) 55.9
Heidi Heitkamp (D) 44.1
This seat is almost assured of flipping from Democrat to Republican. Heitkamp had the numbers working against her in a red state that went for Trump.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D) 57.6
Lou Barletta (R) 42.4
This race has opened up by a healthy enough margin to guarantee it for Casey and retain the seat for the Democrats.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R) 53.8
Phil Bredesen (D) 46.2
In another case where Project Veritas produced damning evidence that Bredesen had lied about his support for Justice Kavanaugh, this race has moved by several points in favor of Blackburn. It is not decided yet, as Tennessee has never elected a female to statewide office, and in past years, females that held the lead in polls lost on election day. It is a tossup state, but if the election were held today, the Republicans would narrowly hold onto this seat.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R) 54.1
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45.9
In a state where gun ownership is above the national average, O’Rourke’s statement that Texas should lead the nation conversation for gun control can be considered a gaffe that will cost him a couple of points and make this race close to safe for Cruz to win re-election and retain this seat for the Republicans.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D) 54.6
Patrick Morrisey (R) 45.4
Joe Manchin showed his intelligence in a very red state when he voted for Justice Kavanaugh. He will win by close to double digits and retain this seat for the Democrats. Manchin considered retiring, and he later would not make a comment on the possibility of switching parties. Manchin has tried to encourage other Democrats to work with the President, as in his opinion this is how his party can add to its numbers. His words are falling on deaf ears.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D) 54.7
Leah Vukmir (R) 45.3
Baldwin has excellent organization in the Badger State, and she should win this race without much concern that the GOP can sneak up on election day like the state did for the President. The Democrats retain this seat.

 

The 65 Senators not up for re-election
Republicans 42
Democrats 23

There are 35 seats up for grabs this year due to two special elections.
Safe for Democrats 21
Safe for Republicans 5

Subtotal
Republicans 47
Democrats 44

*** Nine states will decide the balance of power in the US Senate. ***
Three lean to the Democrats today
Florida
Indiana
Montana

Six lean to the Republicans today
Arizona
Mississippi Special Election
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Tennessee

The current prediction is:
Republicans 53
Democrats 47

 

The United States House of Representatives

Currently
Republicans 235
Democrats 193

2018 Safe seats (411)
Democrats 212
Republicans 199

2018 Contested Seats (27)

Forecasting the 27 races individually is more than our tiny group can handle.  We have used our regression analysis to look at net gains and net losses in the polls.  It is not as accurate as looking at each race individually, but we do prefer to get at least 4 hours of sleep a night.

If the election were held today
Democrats 222
Republicans 216

 

Gubernatorial Races if the election were held today
Republicans 27
Democrats 23

 

So, who will be the big winner in November?  It’s hard to say, but if we do end up with a split decision, the biggest winners may be all the political bloggers and online political sites that will have a field day cramming their opinions down the country’s throats.

The only political commentary we will make is this: Many people fail to understand that the elected official that most affects his or her life is the councilman or alderman in his or her neighborhood.  Yet, history shows that these elections receive the lowest turnout of all races.

Please vote in your local elections wherever you live and for whomever you believe will best represent your views and opinions and who best will respond to any redresses you might have.  In most cases, you can talk personally with your councilman or alderman.  Most of us can never speak directly with any other elected official, other than one or two seconds in a handshake line during an election cycle.

We live in interesting times!

October 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday October 18
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arizona St. Stanford -4.2 -2.8 -4.6
Arkansas St. Georgia St. 10.0 9.2 10.6

 

Friday October 19
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. Colorado St. 28.2 26.5 28.4
UNLV Air Force -9.6 -8.8 -9.4

 

Saturday October 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Cincinnati 6.7 5.1 7.0
Arkansas Tulsa 12.3 10.7 10.6
Navy Houston -8.6 -7.0 -9.4
Tulane SMU 5.0 5.8 5.7
Missouri Memphis 15.5 12.1 15.5
East Carolina Central Florida -29.1 -29.6 -30.0
South Florida Connecticut 27.9 29.6 29.4
Syracuse North Carolina 13.5 13.0 13.3
Duke Virginia 12.6 10.1 12.9
Clemson North Carolina St. 22.4 20.3 23.0
Florida St. Wake Forest 6.7 8.3 8.6
TCU Oklahoma -4.6 -4.3 -6.3
Texas Tech Kansas 13.3 13.4 13.9
Michigan St. Michigan -6.2 -7.0 -7.1
Wisconsin Illinois 26.9 24.6 27.3
Iowa Maryland 13.7 13.1 14.2
Rutgers Northwestern -23.4 -22.7 -25.4
Indiana Penn St. -20.4 -18.7 -21.2
Nebraska Minnesota -2.8 -3.4 -4.5
Purdue Ohio St. -14.2 -13.6 -14.7
Marshall Florida Atlantic -0.6 1.4 -0.2
Middle Tenneesee Charlotte 17.3 16.3 18.3
Louisiana Tech UTEP 25.8 25.2 27.9
Southern Miss. UTSA 9.8 8.5 9.7
Florida Int’l. Rice 26.4 27.8 29.1
UAB North Texas -2.2 -2.2 -2.6
Western Kentucky Old Dominion 1.1 0.8 2.6
Army Miami (O) 15.1 14.2 13.0
Massachusetts Coastal Carolina 10.2 9.6 10.7
New Mexico St. Georgia Southern -13.3 -13.1 -13.7
Toledo Buffalo 2.5 1.4 1.1
Ohio U Bowling Green 14.6 15.5 14.8
Ball St. Eastern Michigan -6.8 -5.7 -7.4
Central Michigan Western Michigan -4.8 -4.0 -5.4
Kent St. Akron -10.3 -10.6 -11.0
Wyoming Utah St. -10.6 -12.1 -12.7
New Mexico Fresno St. -19.5 -16.9 -19.7
San Diego St. San Jose St. 30.5 30.0 33.1
Hawaii Nevada -5.9 -3.8 -6.7
Washington Colorado 22.3 19.3 22.8
Oregon St. California -13.9 -13.8 -15.1
Washington St. Oregon -1.1 -2.0 -2.7
Utah USC 9.2 8.9 10.6
UCLA Arizona 1.9 3.5 -0.6
Ole Miss Auburn -7.9 -7.0 -9.2
Tennessee Alabama -38.1 -35.6 -40.2
LSU Mississippi St. 1.6 4.0 2.2
Kentucky Vanderbilt 17.3 15.9 17.3
Appalachian St. Louisiana 22.0 21.7 22.7
Louisina-Monroe Texas St. 13.6 10.9 14.2

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Liberty Idaho St. 4.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.8 140.1
2 Clemson 133.9 131.3 134.4 133.2
3 Georgia 127.8 124.7 128.6 127.0
4 Ohio St. 127.5 125.5 127.8 126.9
5 Michigan 125.5 124.2 125.9 125.2
6 Notre Dame 124.5 121.7 123.5 123.2
7 Washington 123.4 121.4 124.7 123.1
8 Penn St. 122.3 119.6 122.6 121.5
9 Oklahoma 119.7 118.3 120.0 119.3
10 Mississippi St. 119.9 117.4 120.6 119.3
11 L S U 118.6 118.4 119.8 118.9
12 Michigan St. 117.7 115.6 117.2 116.9
13 Utah 116.0 114.3 116.9 115.8
14 Miami 115.9 114.5 115.4 115.3
15 Iowa 116.0 114.0 115.7 115.2
16 Auburn 114.7 113.4 116.3 114.8
17 Wisconsin 115.8 113.1 115.2 114.7
18 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
19 Duke 115.3 113.2 114.9 114.5
20 Kentucky 114.9 113.8 114.8 114.5
21 Missouri 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 Florida 114.6 113.0 115.5 114.3
23 N. Carolina St. 114.5 113.9 114.4 114.3
24 Stanford 115.1 112.4 115.1 114.2
25 Oregon 113.7 113.6 114.6 114.0
26 Texas A&M 114.2 112.9 114.4 113.8
27 Boston College 114.4 111.8 113.8 113.4
28 Texas 113.5 112.1 113.0 112.8
29 Iowa State 112.8 111.2 112.6 112.2
30 Virginia Tech 112.2 111.2 111.8 111.7
31 West Virginia 112.4 111.4 111.5 111.7
32 S. Carolina 112.2 111.0 111.8 111.7
33 T C U 112.1 111.0 110.7 111.2
34 Georgia Tech 111.2 110.1 110.8 110.7
35 Fresno St. 110.9 109.9 111.2 110.7
36 Northwestern 110.7 109.0 110.6 110.1
37 Purdue 110.3 108.9 110.1 109.8
38 Boise St. 109.7 109.0 109.8 109.5
39 U S C 109.8 108.4 109.3 109.2
40 Syracuse 109.9 108.5 109.1 109.2
41 Washington St. 109.6 108.6 108.9 109.0
42 Utah St. 107.8 109.2 109.3 108.8
43 Texas Tech 109.5 108.2 108.4 108.7
44 Oklahoma St. 109.4 107.5 109.1 108.6
45 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 107.5 107.3
46 Florida St. 107.4 106.8 107.1 107.1
47 Army 104.9 105.6 105.1 105.2
48 Virginia 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.1
49 Colorado 104.0 105.1 104.9 104.7
50 Maryland 105.3 104.0 104.5 104.6
51 Ole Miss 103.8 103.4 104.1 103.7
52 Kansas St. 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
53 Houston 103.0 103.7 103.4 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.7 102.8 103.6 103.4
55 Memphis 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.1
56 California 103.8 101.3 103.2 102.8
57 San Diego St. 102.4 102.6 103.2 102.7
58 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.1 102.6
59 Baylor 103.0 101.2 102.7 102.3
60 Wake Forest 103.8 101.4 101.5 102.2
61 Appalachian St. 100.8 102.6 102.5 101.9
62 N. Texas 99.9 102.4 100.9 101.0
63 Pittsburgh 101.4 100.7 100.8 101.0
64 Vanderbilt 100.5 100.8 100.5 100.6
65 BYU 100.1 100.6 100.7 100.4
66 Arizona 100.6 98.8 100.7 100.0
67 Arkansas 100.3 97.8 99.2 99.1
68 Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.5 99.1
69 South Florida 98.4 100.4 98.5 99.1
70 N. Carolina 99.4 98.4 98.8 98.9
71 Cincinnati 98.2 99.8 98.6 98.8
72 Buffalo 97.7 99.8 98.8 98.8
73 U C L A 99.5 99.3 97.1 98.6
74 Indiana 98.9 97.9 98.4 98.4
75 Kansas 99.2 97.8 97.5 98.2
76 Florida Atlantic 97.2 97.9 97.8 97.6
77 Toledo 97.1 98.2 96.9 97.4
78 Nebraska 97.9 96.4 96.1 96.8
79 Louisiana Tech 94.6 97.1 96.1 95.9
80 U A B 94.6 97.1 95.3 95.7
81 Air Force 95.3 95.9 95.4 95.5
82 Northern Illinois 94.9 95.6 94.7 95.1
83 Louisville 95.2 95.2 94.4 94.9
84 Marshall 93.6 96.3 94.5 94.8
85 Tulane 94.4 94.8 94.2 94.5
86 Miami (O) 92.8 94.5 95.1 94.1
87 Eastern Michigan 93.5 94.8 94.0 94.1
88 Wyoming 94.3 94.1 93.6 94.0
89 Ohio U 92.7 93.9 93.2 93.3
90 Middle Tennessee 91.8 93.2 93.0 92.7
91 Western Michigan 91.8 93.4 92.7 92.7
92 Navy 91.4 93.6 91.0 92.0
93 Nevada 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.0
94 Troy 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.5
95 SMU 92.0 91.4 91.0 91.5
96 Akron 90.8 92.1 91.2 91.4
97 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.6 90.4 91.2
98 Illinois 91.4 91.0 90.4 90.9
99 Tulsa 91.0 90.2 91.5 90.9
100 Georgia Southern 88.9 90.6 89.5 89.7
101 New Mexico 88.4 90.0 88.5 89.0
102 Arkansas St. 86.7 88.0 88.1 87.6
103 Central Michigan 85.0 87.4 85.3 85.9
104 Southern Miss. 84.4 87.4 85.0 85.6
105 Oregon St. 86.9 84.5 85.1 85.5
106 Ball St. 84.2 86.6 84.1 85.0
107 Colorado St. 84.5 85.4 84.4 84.8
108 Massachusetts 83.4 85.3 84.3 84.3
109 U N L V 83.2 84.6 83.5 83.8
110 Rutgers 84.8 83.7 82.8 83.8
111 Old Dominion 82.0 85.4 81.5 83.0
112 Louisiana 81.7 83.9 82.8 82.8
113 East Carolina 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.6
114 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.5 82.8 82.6
115 Hawaii 82.2 84.1 81.3 82.5
116 W. Kentucky 80.7 83.7 81.6 82.0
117 Liberty 81.3 80.5 81.5 81.1
118 Bowling Green 80.6 80.9 80.8 80.8
119 Georgia St. 79.2 81.2 80.0 80.1
120 U T S A 77.2 81.4 77.8 78.8
121 Kent St. 78.0 79.1 77.7 78.3
122 Charlotte 77.0 79.4 77.2 77.9
123 South Alabama 76.4 78.3 77.0 77.2
124 Coastal Carolina 75.7 78.2 76.1 76.7
125 San Jose St. 74.9 75.6 73.1 74.5
126 N. Mexico St. 73.1 75.0 73.3 73.8
127 Connecticut 73.5 73.8 72.1 73.1
128 Texas State 71.3 74.2 71.1 72.2
129 U T E P 71.3 74.4 70.7 72.1
130 Rice 66.2 68.7 64.3 66.4

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 3-0 6-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.1 102.6 3-0 4-3
South Florida 98.4 100.4 98.5 99.1 2-0 6-0
Cincinnati 98.2 99.8 98.6 98.8 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.6 0-3 2-4
Connecticut 73.5 73.8 72.1 73.1 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 103.0 103.7 103.4 103.4 2-0 5-1
Memphis 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.1 1-3 4-3
Tulane 94.4 94.8 94.2 94.5 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 91.0 92.0 1-2 2-4
SMU 92.0 91.4 91.0 91.5 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 91.0 90.2 91.5 90.9 0-3 1-5
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.9 131.3 134.4 133.2 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.5 113.9 114.4 114.3 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.4 111.8 113.8 113.4 2-1 5-2
Syracuse 109.9 108.5 109.1 109.2 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.4 106.8 107.1 107.1 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.8 101.4 101.5 102.2 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.2 95.2 94.4 94.9 0-4 2-5
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.9 114.5 115.4 115.3 2-1 5-2
Duke 115.3 113.2 114.9 114.5 1-1 5-1
Virginia Tech 112.2 111.2 111.8 111.7 3-0 4-2
Georgia Tech 111.2 110.1 110.8 110.7 1-3 3-4
Virginia 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.1 2-1 4-2
Pittsburgh 101.4 100.7 100.8 101.0 2-1 3-4
N. Carolina 99.4 98.4 98.8 98.9 1-2 1-4
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.7 118.3 120.0 119.3 2-1 5-1
Texas 113.5 112.1 113.0 112.8 4-0 6-1
Iowa State 112.8 111.2 112.6 112.2 2-2 3-3
West Virginia 112.4 111.4 111.5 111.7 3-1 5-1
T C U 112.1 111.0 110.7 111.2 1-2 3-3
Texas Tech 109.5 108.2 108.4 108.7 2-1 4-2
Oklahoma St. 109.4 107.5 109.1 108.6 1-3 4-3
Kansas St. 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 1-3 3-4
Baylor 103.0 101.2 102.7 102.3 2-2 4-3
Kansas 99.2 97.8 97.5 98.2 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 127.5 125.5 127.8 126.9 4-0 7-0
Michigan 125.5 124.2 125.9 125.2 4-0 6-1
Penn St. 122.3 119.6 122.6 121.5 1-2 4-2
Michigan St. 117.7 115.6 117.2 116.9 3-1 4-2
Maryland 105.3 104.0 104.5 104.6 2-1 4-2
Indiana 98.9 97.9 98.4 98.4 1-3 4-3
Rutgers 84.8 83.7 82.8 83.8 0-4 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.0 114.0 115.7 115.2 2-1 5-1
Wisconsin 115.8 113.1 115.2 114.7 2-1 4-2
Northwestern 110.7 109.0 110.6 110.1 3-1 3-3
Purdue 110.3 108.9 110.1 109.8 2-1 3-3
Minnesota 103.7 102.8 103.6 103.4 0-3 3-3
Nebraska 97.9 96.4 96.1 96.8 0-4 0-6
Illinois 91.4 91.0 90.4 90.9 1-2 3-3
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.6 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.2 97.9 97.8 97.6 1-1 3-3
Marshall 93.6 96.3 94.5 94.8 2-1 4-2
Middle Tennessee 91.8 93.2 93.0 92.7 2-1 3-3
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.6 90.4 91.2 2-0 4-2
Old Dominion 82.0 85.4 81.5 83.0 0-4 1-6
W. Kentucky 80.7 83.7 81.6 82.0 0-2 1-5
Charlotte 77.0 79.4 77.2 77.9 2-1 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.9 102.4 100.9 101.0 2-1 6-1
Louisiana Tech 94.6 97.1 96.1 95.9 2-1 4-2
U A B 94.6 97.1 95.3 95.7 3-0 5-1
Southern Miss. 84.4 87.4 85.0 85.6 1-1 2-3
U T S A 77.2 81.4 77.8 78.8 2-1 3-4
U T E P 71.3 74.4 70.7 72.1 0-2 0-6
Rice 66.2 68.7 64.3 66.4 0-3 1-6
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.5 121.7 123.5 123.2 x 7-0
Army 104.9 105.6 105.1 105.2 x 4-2
BYU 100.1 100.6 100.7 100.4 x 4-3
Massachusetts 83.4 85.3 84.3 84.3 x 2-5
Liberty 81.3 80.5 81.5 81.1 x 3-3
N. Mexico St. 73.1 75.0 73.3 73.8 x 2-5
Indep. Averages 94.5 94.8 94.7 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 97.7 99.8 98.8 98.8 3-0 6-1
Miami (O) 92.8 94.5 95.1 94.1 3-1 3-4
Ohio U 92.7 93.9 93.2 93.3 1-1 3-3
Akron 90.8 92.1 91.2 91.4 0-2 2-3
Bowling Green 80.6 80.9 80.8 80.8 0-3 1-6
Kent St. 78.0 79.1 77.7 78.3 0-3 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.1 98.2 96.9 97.4 1-1 3-3
Northern Illinois 94.9 95.6 94.7 95.1 4-0 4-3
Eastern Michigan 93.5 94.8 94.0 94.1 1-3 3-4
Western Michigan 91.8 93.4 92.7 92.7 3-0 5-2
Central Michigan 85.0 87.4 85.3 85.9 0-3 1-6
Ball St. 84.2 86.6 84.1 85.0 2-1 3-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 109.7 109.0 109.8 109.5 2-1 4-2
Utah St. 107.8 109.2 109.3 108.8 2-0 5-1
Air Force 95.3 95.9 95.4 95.5 0-3 2-4
Wyoming 94.3 94.1 93.6 94.0 0-3 2-5
New Mexico 88.4 90.0 88.5 89.0 1-1 3-3
Colorado St. 84.5 85.4 84.4 84.8 2-1 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.9 109.9 111.2 110.7 2-0 5-1
San Diego St. 102.4 102.6 103.2 102.7 2-0 5-1
Nevada 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.0 1-2 3-4
U N L V 83.2 84.6 83.5 83.8 0-2 2-4
Hawaii 82.2 84.1 81.3 82.5 3-1 6-2
San Jose St. 74.9 75.6 73.1 74.5 0-3 0-6
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.4 121.4 124.7 123.1 3-1 5-2
Stanford 115.1 112.4 115.1 114.2 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.7 113.6 114.6 114.0 2-1 5-1
Washington St. 109.6 108.6 108.9 109.0 2-1 5-1
California 103.8 101.3 103.2 102.8 0-3 3-3
Oregon St. 86.9 84.5 85.1 85.5 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.0 114.3 116.9 115.8 2-2 4-2
U S C 109.8 108.4 109.3 109.2 3-1 4-2
Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 107.5 107.3 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.0 105.1 104.9 104.7 2-1 5-1
Arizona 100.6 98.8 100.7 100.0 2-2 3-4
U C L A 99.5 99.3 97.1 98.6 1-2 1-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 127.8 124.7 128.6 127.0 4-1 6-1
Kentucky 114.9 113.8 114.8 114.5 3-1 5-1
Missouri 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-3 3-3
Florida 114.6 113.0 115.5 114.3 4-1 6-1
S. Carolina 112.2 111.0 111.8 111.7 2-3 3-3
Vanderbilt 100.5 100.8 100.5 100.6 0-3 3-4
Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.5 99.1 1-2 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.8 140.1 4-0 7-0
Mississippi St. 119.9 117.4 120.6 119.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 118.6 118.4 119.8 118.9 3-1 6-1
Auburn 114.7 113.4 116.3 114.8 1-3 4-3
Texas A&M 114.2 112.9 114.4 113.8 3-1 5-2
Ole Miss 103.8 103.4 104.1 103.7 1-2 5-2
Arkansas 100.3 97.8 99.2 99.1 0-4 1-6
SEC Averages 114.0 112.7 114.4 113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 100.8 102.6 102.5 101.9 2-0 4-1
Troy 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.5 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 88.9 90.6 89.5 89.7 3-0 5-1
Georgia St. 79.2 81.2 80.0 80.1 1-1 2-4
Coastal Carolina 75.7 78.2 76.1 76.7 1-2 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 86.7 88.0 88.1 87.6 0-2 3-3
Louisiana 81.7 83.9 82.8 82.8 2-1 3-3
UL-Monroe 82.3 82.5 82.8 82.6 1-2 3-4
South Alabama 76.4 78.3 77.0 77.2 2-2 2-5
Texas State 71.3 74.2 71.1 72.2 0-3 1-5
Sun Belt Averages 83.4 85.1 84.2 84.2

 

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.0 112.7 114.4 113.7
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.1 107.6 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.5 94.8 94.7 94.7
8 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.4 85.1 84.2 84.2

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: We revised these early Monday morning.  Multiple sites have listed different bowl tie-ins.  We visited each bowl’s home page to verify the correct alignments and made the appropriate changes.

Additionally, our bowl projections differ from most others because we make assumptions on future games.  For instance, all other major bowl projections have Ohio State in the Playoff today.  We believe the Buckeyes are going to lose a game before the end of the regular season and fall to 5th or 6th in the final poll.  Central Florida is listed as the top Group of 5 team and placed in a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but we believe they will lose and fall behind others.  Currently, we forecast Fresno State to end up in this spot.

Here are the revised bowl & playoff projections.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Utah
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana-Monroe
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Tulane Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Cincinnati [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Buffalo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Southern Miss.]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Minnesota Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Toledo] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Louisiana]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Nevada Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida North Carolina St.
Military AAC ACC Temple [Colorado]
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Stanford
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Auburn
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Purdue Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Michigan Fresno St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Texas
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

There Is Really Only One Team That Can Beat Alabama

The Alabama Crimson Tide currently sits almost one touchdown ahead of the number two Clemson Tigers, but can this Clemson team defeat Alabama?  The answer to that question is probably not, with a qualification.  If Tua Tagovailoa’s knee injury issues were to force him to miss games, then maybe Clemson or Ohio State could make a close game of it.  However, when Tua is healthy, there is only one team that can beat the top-ranked Tide.  That team is: Alabama.

Unless Alabama has a total meltdown, the Tide should win every game by double digits.  Let’s take a look at the moment at Alabama through seven games compared to some great teams from the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present) that ran the table and won the national championship.

Team Year PPG Opp Rush Opp Pass Opp Yds Opp
Alabama 2018 54 15 217 127 350 190 567 317
Alabama 2009 32 12 215 78 188 166 403 244
Texas 2005 50 16 275 131 237 172 512 303
USC 2004 38 13 177 79 272 200 449 279
Miami (Fla.) 2001 43 10 205 133 250 138 455 271
Oklahoma 2000 37 15 135 108 295 171 430 279
Florida St. 1999 38 17 124 99 303 206 427 305
Nebraska 1997 47 17 393 73 121 184 514 257
Nebraska 1995 53 15 400 78 157 216 557 294
Alabama 1992 28 9 209 55 154 139 363 194
Miami (Fla.) 1991 32 8 146 132 295 157 441 289
Washington 1991 41 10 232 67 240 170 472 237
Alabama 1979 32 6 345 102 84 78 429 180
Notre Dame 1973 35 8 350 82 111 119 461 201
USC 1972 39 11 247 110 185 132 432 242
Nebraska 1971 39 8 253 98 178 112 431 210
Texas 1969 40 11 363 90 109 136 472 226
Mystery Team 46 9 319 77 189 185 508 262

I’ll mention that mystery team in a moment.  Let’s look at Alabama’s stats so far.  The Crimson Tide is averaging 54 points per game and giving up 15.  For the most part, the starters have rarely played in the fourth quarter of any game and some have not played in the second half.

This Tide team is unstoppable on offense, as they can still ram through defenses and break through for large rushing gains, but now they have the best quarterback in the nation.  Tagovailoa is drawing comparisons to Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.  For older folks, he’s like a combination of Daryle Lamonica and Tobin Rote.  In a day when few teams average more than 10-11 yards per completion, Tagovailoa is averaging more than 14 yards per attempt!

The only knock against Alabama so far this year is that they have played a rather weak schedule.  However, the Tide quickly dismissed the good teams they have faced.  They beat Texas A&M by more than three touchdowns, while Clemson had to sneak by the Aggies.  They beat Ole Miss by 55 and Missouri by 29.

The Crimson Tide still has games to play against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, but we don’t expect any of the three to beat ‘Bama.  LSU will be the toughest test prior to the SEC Championship Game.  With Georgia losing to LSU, and with Florida and Kentucky still on the Bulldogs’ schedule, there is no guarantee that Georgia will even make the SEC Championship Game.

If Alabama runs the table, they will play the #4 seed in the Semifinal Game of the Playoffs.  As of today, it looks like the #4 seed will be a one-loss team, from Among Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, and remotely Washington St. or Oregon.  None of these teams will challenge the Tide.

The Championship Game might pit Clemson against ‘Bama again.  It could be Alabama and Ohio State, but we have a suspicion that the Buckeyes will lose one game this year, either to Purdue this weekend, Michigan State, or Michigan.  There really isn’t a team other than maybe Clemson that can compete with Alabama this year.  For the Crimson Tide to lose, they will have to beat themselves.

Now to the Mystery Team  

The Mystery Team had drawn comparisons to the great Army teams with Glenn Davis and Felix Blanchard.  They had been compared to the great Oklahoma team that won 47 games in a row.  In fact, the Mystery Team had won 22 games in a row

What you are looking at is an undefeated team with the closest win being 27 points.  This Mystery Team beat the #10 team by four touchdowns and the #19 team by 33 points.

But, there’s a catch.  This team was undefeated with these gaudy stats with one game left to play.  They only needed to win their final game of the year against a team they had defeated by more than five touchdowns the year before.

This team was called by its coach, a Hall of Famer with prior national titles as his best ever.  Did this team beat itself?  No, not exactly.  The prior year’s team cost this Mystery Team its for sure national championship.

This team is Ohio State in 1969.  Through eight games, the Buckeyes did what Alabama is doing this year.  They never trailed for even one second of the season going into the final game against Michigan.  A 41-14 win over Washington in Seattle was their closest game to date, and they entered this game as a 17-point favorite over the 7-2 and 12th-ranked Wolverines at the Big House.

The year before Ohio State beat Michigan 50-14.  The Buckeyes had tried for two when they were up 43-14 and missed, and then they added another touchdown late to hit the half-century mark.  For the next season, first year Michigan coach Bo Schembechler made sure his returning players remembered that game.  The number 50 was plastered everywhere a Wolverine football player could find himself in the athletic facility.  Practice uniforms had the number 50.

Ohio State began the 1969 game like they had the previous eight games.  They returned the opening kick past the 40 yard line, and then on the first scrimmage play, quarterback Rex Kern scrambled for 25 yards to put the Buckeyes close to the Michigan 30.  Bruising fullback Jim Otis carried wide on a sweep, then off-tackle, then up the middle twice in a row to give Ohio State a first down at the Michigan 20.  Otis appeared to make it a first and goal a few plays later, but OSU was called for a false start.  On 4th and short, Michigan made the first big play of the drive stopping the Scarlet and Gray inches short of a first down.

Michigan could not do anything with the ball and punted after three plays.  Ohio State roared right back.  Michigan punted, and Ohio State punt returner Larry Zelina returned it almost back to where Michigan had punted.  It was a quick and easy five play drive for a touchdown, and the Buckeyes led 6-0.  PATs were not automatic in those days, and the OSU extra point was missed.

At this point, it looked like the blowout was on.  However, the Michigan players were not about to let Ohio State do to them in Ann Arbor what had happened a year earlier in Columbus.  Michigan drove the ball on a 10-play drive for a touchdown, and when behemoth kicker Frank Titas hit the PAT, Ohio State trailed for the first time all season, even if it was just 7-6.

Ohio State did what Woody Hayes’ teams did best.  On the next possession, they drove almost 75 yards in 10 plays to retake the lead on a pass from Kern to end Jan White.  On a 2-point try, Kern was sacked before he could pass the ball, and Ohio State led 12-7.  The Buckeyes would not score another point in 1969.

Michigan came alive and quickly drove for the go-ahead score to take a 14-12 lead.  Before the half was done, the Wolverines would put the game away.  After Ohio State was forced to punt, Barry Pierson almost returned it to the house, being knocked down just short of the goal.  Michigan scored a couple of plays later and led 21-12 near the middle of the quarter.  Following a nice Ohio State drive that stalled, Coach Hayes elected to try to make a 53-yard field goal, as in those days, a missed field goal that did not get returned was a touchback.  The kick was way short, and Michigan had the ball once again.  A nice drive could consume the clock, but Schembechler was interested in more.

Michigan calmly killed the clock, but they did so by driving 80 yard for the apparent killing touchdown.  The score was overturned by a penalty.  A short field goal made it 24-12 Wolverines, and that’s how the score stayed the rest of the day.

In the second half, Pierson, the punt returner that set up the go ahead touchdown was the leading receiver for Ohio State.  He intercepted three Buckeye passes, as quarterbacks Kern and Ron Maciejowski threw a combined six picks.  Ohio State didn’t threaten to score any more touchdowns, missing a couple of long field goals.  Michigan played conservatively letting the Buckeyes make mistakes, and the greatest Ohio State team in modern history finished the season 8-1.

Here’s the thing.  In this era, the Big Ten was not bowl friendly.  The champion of the league earned a Rose Bowl bid, but there was a rule that a team could not make consecutive trips to the Rose Bowl.  Had Ohio State beaten Michigan, they would have been 9-0 with no bowl game.  Michigan, at 7-3, would have been picked to go in their place.  However, Schembechler had told his team that if they lost to the Buckeyes, he would decline the Rose Bowl bid.  Third place Purdue would have faced USC instead.

Michigan did win, and the Wolverines headed to Pasadena to play a 9-0-1 USC team that had tied Notre Dame.  On the night before the game, Schembechler suffered a heart attack and did not coach in the game.  Assistant Jim Young became acting head coach, and Michigan played lethargically, losing to USC 10-3.  It was the first time Michigan had ever lost a bowl game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 9-15, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:47 am

We’ve read your comments.  A couple dozen came in over the weekend telling us to defer to the Land Sharps.  Yes, all five of our guest selectors now have winning records for the season.  You heard that right.  Very few amateur handicappers can sustain a winning record against the spread plus the vigorish over the course of a couple of weeks, yet all five of our Land Sharps have done so after 6 weeks of the season.

As for your official PiRate picks, don’t ask.  We are suffering through a malaise, so by popular demand, we will present the Land Sharp picks first and then follow with our ridiculous 25 selections for the week.  We are going to just toss all the darts at once and hope 13 or more stick to the board.

You may notice that we are presenting this feature a day early this week.  There is a valid reason.  There is a Tuesday night college game, and one Sharp selected it.

This Week’s Sharps’ Selections

Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 22-11 66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 30.0%

Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU

 

Buckeye Michelle

Season: 16-8-1  66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 28.8%

Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC
UTSA +13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
South Carolina +3 vs. Texas A&M
Kansas St. +7 vs. Oklahoma St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Season: 15-9-1  62.5% vs. the Spread with ROI of 20.4%

Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. UNC
Fresno State -19 vs. Wyoming
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Utah State -24 vs. UNLV
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska

 

Stewed Meat

Season: 16-13  55.2% vs. the Spread with ROI of 5.9%

Arkansas St. +10 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn
Arizona +14 vs. Utah
Georgia -7 vs. LSU
Oregon +3 1/2 vs. Washington
Baylor +14 1/2 vs. Texas
Illinois +10 1/2 vs. Purdue
Central Florida -4 1/2 vs. Memphis
New Mexico Pk. vs. Colorado St.

 

Dean615

Season: 10-9  52.6% vs. the Spread with ROI of 0.5%

Notre Dame -20 1/2 vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa -4 1/2 vs. Indiana
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Texas Tech +7 1/2 vs. TCU
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn

 

The Official PiRate Ratings Selections

We are going with an astronomical 25 selections this week, because we keep choosing about 7 each week out of 25 that we like, and we keep choosing the wrong 7.  So, we are going with every selection we liked, since so many we didn’t choose in recent weeks were winners.

Picks vs. the Spread

Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Coastal Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UL-Monroe
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska
Washington -3 vs. Oregon
Penn St. -13 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
Army -14 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Georgia Southern -16 1/2 vs. Texas St.
UTSA + 13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC

10-point Teasers

All 3-game parlays at 11-10

Alabama -18 vs. Missouri
Tennessee +26 1/2 vs. Auburn
Hawaii +24 1/2 vs. BYU

Boston College -3 1/2 vs. Louisville
New Mexico +11 1/2 vs. Colorado St.
Eastern Michigan +11 1/2 vs. Toledo

Duke +12 vs. Georgia Tech
Iowa St. +17 vs. West Virginia
Georgia +3 vs. LSU

Maryland -14 vs. Rutgers
Miami (O) -1/2 vs. Kent St.
Northwestern +6 vs. Nebraska

Ohio St. -19 1/2 vs. Minnesota
UAB -6 vs. Rice
San Diego St.  Pk vs. Air Force

Army -4 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Texas A&M +8 vs. South Carolina
Texas -4 vs. Baylor

Arizona +24 vs. Utah
Florida +3 vs. Vanderbilt
Miami (Fla.) +4 vs. Virginia

 

Money Line Parlays

@ +191 $100 invested would return $291 with a win

Northwestern over Nebraska  
UAB over Rice  
South Florida over Tulsa 
Boston College over Louisville 

 

@+175 $100 invested would return $275 with a win

Central Florida over Memphis
San Diego St. over Air Force 
Buffalo over Akron 
Texas over Baylor

 

@+151 $100 invested would return $251 with a win

Florida over Vanderbilt 
Western Michigan over Bowling Green 
Georgia over LSU  
Army over San Jose St.

 

NFL 10-point Teasers 
(Totals) @11-10 3-game parlays
Team Team Total Pick
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 34 Over
Arizona Minnesota 33 Over
Carolina Washington 35 Over
Team Team Total Pick
Indianapolis N.Y. Jets 35 Over
Cincinnati Pittsburgh 63 Under
L.A. Chargers Cleveland 33.5 Over
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Miami 32 Over
Jacksonville Dallas 30 Over
San Francisco Green Bay 36 Over

 

NOTE: All wagers are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  These are imaginary currencies invested in imaginary books.  We do not bet on these games.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, these are not the actual picks Stewed has invested real currency at a real book in Nevada. 

Stewed is fortunate enough to receive the “Outlaw Line” before the Opening Line is issued.  Stewed’s real strategy is to isolate odds that are off by at least 3 points and then play both sides of the key games. 

For instance, if Team A is a 14 1/2 point favorite on the late Saturday night Outlaw Line, and Stewed believes the true spread should be 11, Stewed will put a 5-figure wager on Team B at +14 1/2.  Then, after the opening line is listed at 12 because Stewed and other Sharps knew better, and then when the line lowers to 11 because many in the general public also think they know better, Stewed wagers the same 5-figure amount on Team A at -11. 

If the actual game score comes in at 12, 13, or 14 (three very frequent game spreads), Stewed wins both wagers and makes a lot of profit.  Otherwise, Stewed will win one of the two wagers, unless the spread is exactly 11 points, in which Stewed wins one wager and pushes on the other.  All Stewed needs to do to turn a profit is to have a game come between the two spreads 1 out of every 19 games.  This is wagering with a margin of safety that none of the rest of us amateurs can do.

October 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:06 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday October 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Appalachian St. -6.3 -6.6 -6.1

 

Thursday October 11
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Texas Tech 7.5 7.8 7.6
Texas St. Georgia Southern -17.3 -15.9 -18.5

 

Friday October 12
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulsa South Florida -4.8 -8.0 -4.8
Utah Arizona 15.0 14.9 15.3
San Diego St. Air Force 10.9 10.7 12.2

 

Saturday October 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Louisville 22.4 20.0 23.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -9.9 -8.1 -10.5
Eastern Michigan Toledo -1.7 -1.5 -0.8
South Carolina Texas A&M 1.7 2.0 1.5
Coastal Carolina Louisiana-Monroe 2.3 5.2 2.6
Illinois Purdue -11.6 -10.2 -12.1
Central Michigan Ball St. 3.8 4.1 4.6
Georgia Tech Duke 1.4 2.7 1.7
Maryland Rutgers 22.8 22.3 23.8
North Carolina Virginia Tech -11.1 -11.3 -11.7
Charlotte Western Kentucky -7.0 -8.1 -8.3
East Carolina Houston -16.9 -17.7 -17.5
Buffalo Akron 8.0 8.9 8.6
Old Dominion Marshall -6.6 -5.5 -7.8
Florida Int’l. Middle Tennessee 0.6 3.4 0.2
Miami (O) Kent St. 15.2 15.8 18.0
Utah St. UNLV 23.9 23.7 24.8
Colorado St. New Mexico -1.5 -2.2 -1.7
Liberty Troy -9.3 -11.8 -10.8
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 28.3 26.1 28.3
USC Colorado 8.6 5.4 6.6
San Jose St. Army -21.7 -21.5 -23.7
Oregon Washington -7.7 -5.5 -8.5
Northern Illinois Ohio U 5.3 5.0 4.7
UTSA Louisiana Tech -10.9 -8.8 -11.3
Bowling Green Western Michigan -9.1 -10.9 -10.2
Arkansas Ole Miss -0.3 -2.3 -1.5
Michigan Wisconsin 9.6 10.9 10.3
Ohio St. Minnesota 29.2 27.9 30.0
Navy Temple -8.5 -6.3 -10.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -0.5 -1.2 -0.2
North Texas Southern Miss. 17.8 17.1 17.9
Northwestern Nebraska 20.1 19.8 22.3
Indiana Iowa -11.4 -10.1 -10.9
Memphis Central Florida -10.2 -8.5 -9.9
Auburn Tennessee 24.5 22.7 26.8
Texas Baylor 13.3 13.9 13.4
Alabama Missouri 28.3 27.8 28.9
Vanderbilt Florida -11.7 -9.6 -12.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. -5.7 -5.4 -6.8
Rice UAB -20.8 -20.6 -23.2
LSU Georgia -13.1 -9.8 -13.1
Louisiana New Mexico St. 5.7 5.8 6.3
Penn St. Michigan St. 10.3 9.7 11.4
BYU Hawaii 21.5 19.7 23.0
California UCLA 13.8 11.5 15.6
Fresno St. Wyoming 19.1 18.1 20.1
Nevada Boise St. -17.5 -17.1 -18.3

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
South Alabama Alabama St. 29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9
2 Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9
3 Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2
5 Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5
6 Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7
7 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
8 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
9 Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0
10 Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0
11 Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3
12 Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5
13 Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1
14 Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6
15 Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3
16 L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2
17 Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6
18 Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
19 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
20 N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0
21 West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9
22 Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9
23 Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8
24 Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5
25 Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5
26 Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4
27 Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3
28 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
29 Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2
30 Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7
31 T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4
32 Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3
33 Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1
34 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0
35 Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3
36 Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1
37 Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4
38 Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3
39 Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9
40 U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8
41 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
42 Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8
43 Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0
45 Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0
46 Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8
47 California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3
48 Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0
49 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
50 Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0
51 Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6
52 San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2
53 Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2
54 Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8
55 Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8
56 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7
57 Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1
58 Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1
59 Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9
60 Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8
61 Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7
62 N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6
63 Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5
64 BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2
65 Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0
66 Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7
67 South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4
68 Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4
69 Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2
70 Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5
71 N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4
72 Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9
73 Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8
74 Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7
75 Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4
76 Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6
77 U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2
79 Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0
80 Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7
81 Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6
82 Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3
83 Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2
85 Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9
86 Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8
87 Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6
88 U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3
89 Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2
90 Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1
91 Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0
92 Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0
93 Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7
94 Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3
95 Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0
96 SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3
97 Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1
98 Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8
99 Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7
100 Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6
101 Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1
102 New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3
103 Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4
104 Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0
105 U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8
106 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6
107 Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2
108 Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8
109 Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5
110 Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5
111 Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1
112 Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0
113 East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8
114 Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8
115 U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9
116 Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4
117 Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0
118 Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
119 Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9
120 Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5
121 UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2
122 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1
123 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0
124 N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0
125 San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0
126 Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3
127 Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9
128 U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9
129 Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1
130 Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3 2-0 5-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7 2-0 3-3
South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4 1-0 5-0
Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8 0-2 2-3
Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 1-0 4-1
Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8 1-2 4-2
Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0 1-1 2-3
SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6 0-2 1-4
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5 1-1 4-2
Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7 0-3 2-4
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5 2-0 5-1
Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2 0-1 4-1
Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7 2-0 3-2
Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1 1-2 3-3
Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0 1-1 3-2
Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0 2-1 3-3
N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4 1-1 1-3
ACC Averages 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0 2-1 5-1
West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9 3-0 5-0
Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3 3-0 5-1
T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4 1-1 3-2
Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1 1-2 4-2
Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3 1-2 2-3
Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1 0-3 2-4
Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8 2-1 4-2
Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2 3-0 6-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 3-0 5-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6 2-1 3-2
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-1 3-2
Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7 1-2 4-2
Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1 2-0 4-1
Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5 1-1 4-1
Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3 2-1 2-3
Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1 0-2 3-2
Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6 0-3 0-5
Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9 1-1 3-2
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4 1-1 3-3
Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6 1-1 3-2
Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7 2-0 3-2
Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1 1-0 3-2
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5 0-3 1-5
Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6 1-1 5-1
Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2 1-1 3-2
U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3 2-0 4-1
Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0 1-0 2-2
U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9 2-0 3-3
U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9 0-2 0-6
Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3 0-2 1-5
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5 x 6-0
Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8 x 3-2
BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2 x 3-3
Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1 x 2-5
Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5 x 2-3
N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0 x 2-4
Independents Averages 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8 2-0 5-1
Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2 1-0 3-2
Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0 2-1 2-4
Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3 0-1 2-2
Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4 0-2 1-5
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1 0-2 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7 1-0 3-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2 3-0 3-3
Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8 0-3 2-4
Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0 2-0 4-2
Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4 0-2 1-5
Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8 1-1 2-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3 1-1 3-2
Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0 1-0 4-1
Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0 0-2 2-3
Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3 0-2 2-4
New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3 1-0 3-2
Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4 1-0 4-1
San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2 1-0 4-1
Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7 1-1 3-3
U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8 0-1 2-3
Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8 3-0 6-1
San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0 0-2 0-5
MWC Averages 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7 3-0 5-1
Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 2-1 5-1
California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3 0-2 3-2
Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8 1-2 3-2
U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0 2-0 5-0
Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7 2-1 3-3
U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6 0-2 0-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2 4-0 6-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6 0-2 3-2
Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 3-1 5-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-1 5-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0 2-2 3-2
Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5 0-2 3-3
Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9 3-0 6-0
Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0 1-2 4-2
Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2 2-1 5-1
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 2-1 4-2
Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6 0-2 4-2
Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2 0-3 1-5
SEC Averages 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1 3-0 5-1
Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8 2-0 4-1
Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0 1-1 3-2
Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1 0-1 3-2
Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9 1-1 2-3
UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2 0-2 2-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0 1-2 1-5
Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1 0-2 1-4
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
2 ACC 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
8 MWC 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Cincinnati
4 Fresno St.
5 San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Atlantic Louisiana
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan UAB
Frisco AAC MAC [BYU] Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC [Army] [Marshall]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Utah]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona St.] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Utah St.] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Nevada]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Baylor Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Ohio St. Clemson
Orange Alabama Notre Dame
National Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

September 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 5

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:18 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday September 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina 18.6 18.2 19.1

 

Friday September 28
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulane Memphis -7.4 -9.6 -9.0
Colorado UCLA 8.0 9.7 12.2

 

Saturday September 29
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Army 2.8 4.8 4.3
Connecticut Cincinnati -13.1 -14.6 -14.7
Michigan St. Central Michigan 40.2 35.2 39.4
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 0.9 1.6 2.1
Ball St. Kent St. 3.5 4.9 3.3
Wake Forest Rice 39.5 34.0 38.3
East Carolina Old Dominion 5.3 1.1 5.3
Georgia Tech Bowling Green 28.6 27.3 27.8
Boston College Temple 20.7 17.8 20.0
Clemson Syracuse 24.2 22.8 25.9
Appalachian St. South Alabama 16.5 15.9 16.8
Duke Virginia Tech 6.6 4.7 6.3
Georgia St. UL-Monroe -8.1 -5.2 -7.9
Ohio U Massachusetts 13.2 12.1 12.3
Central Florida Pittsburgh 14.1 14.5 15.1
Kentucky South Carolina 2.2 2.0 2.1
North Carolina St. Virginia 12.8 12.0 13.4
Rutgers Indiana -9.2 -9.3 -11.0
Air Force Nevada 6.5 7.0 6.7
Washington St. Utah 0.7 1.4 -1.3
Arizona St. Oregon St. 24.8 25.8 26.3
Washington BYU 26.1 23.1 27.3
Fresno St. Toledo 16.0 12.7 15.8
Miami (O) Western Michigan -1.3 -1.4 0.3
Louisville Florida St. -4.9 -4.1 -5.2
Penn St. Ohio St. -2.6 -3.2 -2.9
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -0.4 -0.4 -2.0
Georgia Tennessee 39.3 35.0 41.7
New Mexico Liberty 11.6 15.0 11.9
Auburn Southern Miss. 41.8 37.3 43.5
TCU Iowa St. 6.3 7.0 5.6
Alabama Louisiana 63.2 59.2 64.1
Oklahoma Baylor 18.7 19.4 19.8
UTSA UTEP 12.3 13.7 13.8
Nebraska Purdue -9.5 -9.3 -11.5
Kansas St. Texas -6.4 -6.4 -6.9
Texas Tech West Virginia -1.9 -2.5 -2.9
North Texas Louisiana Tech 13.6 13.8 13.4
UAB Charlotte 17.0 17.0 17.1
Kansas Oklahoma St. -10.3 -9.6 -12.7
Western Kentucky Marshall -8.4 -7.8 -8.3
Mississippi St. Florida 11.2 10.4 11.1
LSU Ole Miss 13.3 13.8 13.9
Troy Coastal Carolina 14.8 13.0 15.8
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic -6.5 -5.6 -6.0
Arizona USC -3.6 -3.4 -2.5
Wyoming Boise St. -14.0 -13.3 -14.7
San Jose St. Hawaii 1.6 0.1 1.0
Notre Dame Stanford 4.4 3.5 2.2
Northwestern Michigan -12.4 -13.2 -13.1
Texas A&M Arkansas 17.6 19.0 19.7
California Oregon 1.6 -1.5 0.6

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 27.9
SMU Houston Baptist 34.0
Florida Int’l. Ark.-Pine Bluff 43.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9
2 Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1
3 Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6
4 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
5 Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3
6 Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1
7 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
8 Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8
9 Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5
10 Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0
11 Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8
12 Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7
13 Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2
14 Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
15 Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8
16 Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0
17 Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6
18 Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3
19 L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1
20 Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9
21 Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7
22 S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5
23 N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5
24 West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4
25 Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2
26 Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6
27 Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2
28 T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2
29 Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1
30 Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9
31 Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9
32 Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8
33 Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4
34 Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1
35 Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7
36 Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9
37 Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7
38 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
39 Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4
40 Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3
41 U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0
42 Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9
43 Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7
44 Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7
45 Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6
46 N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7
47 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
48 Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2
49 Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7
50 Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3
51 Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8
52 Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7
53 Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2
55 Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9
56 Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9
57 BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8
58 Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4
59 Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3
60 Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9
61 Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7
62 Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9
63 Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4
64 N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2
65 San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1
67 Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9
68 South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6
69 Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5
70 Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4
71 Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4
72 Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1
73 Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1
74 Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9
75 Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7
76 Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4
77 Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0
78 Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8
79 Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4
80 U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4
81 Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2
82 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2
83 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0
84 Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3
85 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1
86 Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9
87 Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5
88 Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4
89 Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2
92 Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2
93 SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2
94 Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0
95 Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7
96 U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3
97 Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3
98 U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9
99 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9
100 Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8
103 Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1
104 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8
105 UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4
106 East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2
107 Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2
108 W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1
109 Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1
110 Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8
111 Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0
113 South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0
114 Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9
115 Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3
116 Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1
117 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
118 Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7
119 Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7
120 U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5
121 Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8
122 Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5
123 San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4
124 Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3
125 Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8
126 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5
127 Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4
128 Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2 1-0 3-0
South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6 1-0 4-0
Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1 1-0 2-2
Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9 0-0 4-0
East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2 0-1 1-2
Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7 0-1 3-1
Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9 0-0 3-1
Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0 1-1 2-2
Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0 0-0 1-3
SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2 1-0 1-3
Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6 1-0 4-0
Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8 0-0 3-1
Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0 0-0 4-0
Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1 1-0 2-1
Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2 1-0 4-0
West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2 0-1 3-1
T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2 0-1 2-2
Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9 1-0 3-1
Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9 0-1 1-2
Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9 1-0 3-1
Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9 1-0 3-1
Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3 0-1 2-2
Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4 0-1 2-2
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 1-0 4-0
Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1 1-0 3-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-0 4-0
Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5 1-0 2-1
Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1 0-1 3-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 1-0 3-1
Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7 1-0 1-2
Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6 0-1 1-3
Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5 0-1 0-3
Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5 0-0 2-2
Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-1
Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7 1-0 2-2
Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9 0-0 1-2
W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-3
Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8 0-2 1-3
Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4 1-0 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7 0-0 4-0
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2 0-0 2-1
U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0 1-0 2-1
U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5 0-0 1-3
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-1 1-3
U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2 0-0 0-4
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0 x 4-0
BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8 x 3-1
Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9 x 2-2
Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8 x 2-3
Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5 x 1-2
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5 x 1-4
Indep. Averages 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4 1-0 4-0
Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3 0-0 1-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-0 1-3
Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3 0-1 1-3
Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4 0-0 2-1
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0 1-0 1-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1 0-1 2-2
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 0-0 2-2
Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2 0-1 1-3
Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1 0-0 1-3
MAC Averages 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4 0-1 1-2
New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9 0-0 3-1
U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3 0-0 2-2
Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 4-1
San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3 2-0 3-1
Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7 2-0 4-0
Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4 0-1 3-1
Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4 0-1 3-1
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-3
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0 1-1 2-2
Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7 0-1 2-2
Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4 0-0 3-0
Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9 1-0 2-2
U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1 2-0 4-0
Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3 0-1 3-1
S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5 1-1 2-1
Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6 2-0 4-0
Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9 1-1 3-1
Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9 0-1 2-2
Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4 0-1 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9 2-0 4-0
Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8 1-1 3-1
Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8 0-1 3-1
L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1 1-0 4-0
Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9 0-1 2-2
Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4 0-1 3-1
Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1 0-1 1-3
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4 0-0 2-1
Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0 0-0 3-1
UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4 0-1 2-2
South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0 1-0 1-3
Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8 0-1 1-2
Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

 

The Conference Ratings

 

# League PiRate