MAC | The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 15, 2017

2017 Mid-American Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: Bowl Projections, college football, MAC, Miami, Ohio, Predictions, Preview, Ratings, Toledo, Western Michigan — piratings @ 10:12 am

Today, the PiRate Ratings kicks off its annual college football conference previews with the Mid-American Conference. Last year, the MAC was a sneaky little league. Very few so-called experts picked this league to produce the automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl participant, but when Western Michigan ran the table in the regular season, and then the Broncos beat Ohio in the MAC title game, it was WMU that ventured down to Jerry World to play in the Cotton Bowl.

There is a slight chance that this league could produce the special Group of 5 team again this season, but we won’t expect it this time around. Not only is there no overpowering team in this league. the schedule for the best team just won’t allow for an undefeated season and most likely not a one-loss season.

2017 looks to be the year where college football begins to look more and more like the NFL, and the teams with experienced and talented quarterbacks, quick receivers, quick defensive backs, and above-average linemen in that order will dominate the land. It is certainly true in this league, where the top two QBs belong to the two teams we are picking to win the divisional races–Logan Woodside at Toledo and Gus Ragland at Miami of Ohio.

Because the Poinsettia Bowl went bust, there is one less bowl game this season. The MAC figures to be the league that suffers the most from this cancellation. We believe there will be two bowl eligible teams in the league that do not receive bowl bids. At least, we do not foresee a 5-7 team having to fill in as an at-large, at least until another bowl replaces the defunct Poinsettia. There could be one set for Wrigley Field in Chicago in the future, and that most assuredly would be good news for this league.

Here is how the MAC Media picked the teams to finish the season.

MAC East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Ohio U	11	131	0
2	Miami (O)	12	129	1
3	Bowling Green	1	88	1
4	Akron	0	79	0
5	Buffalo	0	41	0
6	Kent St.	0	36	0

MAC West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Toledo	22	142	21
2	Western Michigan	1	107	1
3	Northern Illinois	1	89	0
4	Eastern Michigan	0	74	0
5	Central Michigan	0	62	0
6	Ball St.	0	30	0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings differ slightly, but not all that much. Remember that the PiRate Ratings are really only predictive for the next week’s schedule, and they cannot be used to look forward past that week. Because, we set certain factors into each teams’ future to account for depth or lack thereof, these ratings can change even if a team wins by the exact amount predicted.

Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings for the pre-season

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (O)	94.3	96.6	96.8	95.9
Ohio U	90.3	92.0	91.2	91.2
Akron	84.3	88.5	84.5	85.8
Kent St.	83.7	85.3	84.9	84.6
Bowling Green	82.4	82.6	83.7	82.9
Buffalo	79.7	83.7	81.6	81.7

West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	102.1	98.4	103.8	101.4
Toledo	99.3	99.1	100.9	99.8
Eastern Michigan	93.5	93.1	93.6	93.4
Central Michigan	90.4	90.6	90.8	90.6
Northern Illinois	85.7	85.8	85.9	85.8
Ball St.	78.2	80.5	79.7	79.5

MAC Averages	88.7	89.7	89.8	89.4

This is our not so scientific attempt to predict the won-loss records and bowl projections. As we stated above, our ratings do not look past the next week’s schedule.

Mid-American Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
Miami (O)	6-2	9-4	Camellia
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	Idaho Potato
Akron	4-4	5-7
Kent St.	2-6	3-9
Bowling Green	2-6	3-9
Buffalo	2-6	3-9

West Division
Toledo	8-0	11-2	Bahamas
Western Michigan	6-2	8-4	Dollar General
Eastern Michigan	5-3	6-6	eligible
Central Michigan	5-3	6-6	eligible
Northern Illinois	2-6	4-8
Ball St.	1-7	3-9

Toledo to win MAC Title Game

Coming tomorrow–Conference USA

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August 12, 2015

2015 Mid-American Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: Blake Frohnapfel, Bowling Green, football, Kareem Hunt, MAC, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Preview, Toledo, Western Michigan — piratings @ 2:15 pm

It’s been three years since Northern Illinois sneaked into a BCS Bowl, losing to Florida State in the 2013 Orange Bowl, and since that time, the Mid-American Conference has fallen a few spots in the conference ladder, just barely beginning the 2015-16 season ahead of Conference USA and the Sun Belt Conference.

There are talented teams in both MAC divisions, but overall, the league has gotten a few points weaker in recent years. In the past three seasons, this league is just 4-13 in bowl games, many of those losses to mediocre opponents. And, last year, MAC teams went 4-20 against teams from Big 6 conferences. Those four beaten big boys were Pittsburgh, Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern. Among the 20 losses were Big Six Conference lightweights Colorado and Vanderbilt, as well as the aforementioned Purdue Boilermakers. Additional losses to the likes of Eastern Kentucky and Army (twice) knocked this league down a few more notches.

2015 brings a new outlook for the Big Ten’s stepbrother. The league will produce a few future NFL players, and we believe this might be the season where the MAC breaks even or even finished above .500 in the bowl picture.

The East Division figures to be four deep in contenders, with Bowling Green leading the way. Second year coach Dino Babers won the division in his first year at the helm, as the Falcons found a way to win close games. However, a three-game losing streak to close out the regular season spoiled a possible repeat of 2013. This year, Babers’ squad is loaded on offense and should score up to 35 points per game, but the defense may be just as generous. The key is the BGU secondary, which is thin to start the season.

Frank Solich once had his alma mater, Nebraska, at the number one spot in the nation and on the cusp of becoming another national champion like the 1997, 1995, 1994, 1971, and 1970 teams. An unbelievable upset blowout loss at Colorado on Black Friday of 2001 basically started the ball rolling to his dismissal in Lincoln, and led to his arrival in Athens, Ohio, where Solich has guided the Ohio Bobcats to a 72-56 record and six bowl trips in his ten-year tenure. Solich’s Bobcats figure to be right on Bowling Green’s heels this year, and the Wednesday night, November 4 game at BGU could determine which East team will play in the MAC Championship Game.

Our sleeper team in the league this year is UMass. The Minutemen have yet to challenge in their first three years in the league, but we have a sneaky suspicion that Coach Mark Whipple’s crew is going to matter in the East Division race this year. The UMass offense is going to be lethal at times this season with the league’s top quarterback and two of the top receivers. Whipple’s Minutemen will not be a one trick pony. The defense should improve by as much as a touchdown per game, and we believe UMass will be bowl eligible. The bowl invitation may not arrive, but a 6-6 season would be enough to create a lot more support in Amherst.

Akron has become a “sexy” pick among the MAC Media, as they believe Coach Terry Bowden is about to turn the corner in the land of rubber. We believe the Zips will vie with UMass for third place, but any of the top four in this division could make it to the Championship Game. Former Louisville wideout Michaelee Harris could be the added ingredient that proves the media to be a modern day Nostradamus.

Kent State is not that far behind the four contenders, but the Golden Flashes have a killer schedule that includes road games against Illinois, Minnesota, Toledo, Ohio, and Akron, and a home game against Marshall. Basically, to make it to .500, the Flashes will have to win the rest of their games, and since the rest of their games include Bowling Green, there is not a path to bowl eligibility this season.

Buffalo and Miami (O) will fight it out in an attempt to avoid the cellar, as these two teams will be out of bowl contention before November. Buffalo actually has some decent talent, but the Bulls don’t have enough to compete with the top four in the MAC East. Miami must be fortunate to draw an opening home game against Presbyterian. A loss to the Blue Hose would mean the Redhawks would be 0-9 when Eastern Michigan comes to Oxford.

The West Division has three very talented squads that are no more than a field goal apart in our ratings to start the season. Any of the top three could state an excellent case as to why they are the best of the trio.

To start 2015, we rate Western Michigan as the best in the division and the league. Coach P. J. Fleck was on a possible hot seat after a 1-11 innaugural season. In year two, the Broncos put together a six-game winning streak that finally ended in the season finale against Northern Illinois in a game that had WMU won, would have been enough to take a piece of the division title. With the bulk of the team that surprised with an 8-4 regular season mark returning, including quarterback Zach Terrell, star runnning back Jarvion Franklin, and just about every receiver that caught a pass last year, look for WMU to be the team to beat in the MAC and possibly one to scare Michigan State for a half in the season opener.

Toledo is not as talented as WMU, but the Rockets have a huge advantage over the Broncos. TU hosts WMU as well as Northern Illinois, while WMU must finish out the regular season with back-to-back road games against the other two contenders. Running back Kareem Hunt may be the best back in the league, and he returns as well as quarterback Phillip Ely. The one problem with the Toledo offense is a green blocking quintet. If the young offensive linemen improve enough by November, then TU will become the favorite to win the division flag. If the group never puts it together, then even hosting the other two contenders may not matter.

As for Northern Illinois, the Huskies may have the best defense of the three contenders, but the offense is the weakest of the three contenders. It could be trouble for NIU having to play at Ohio State and at Boston College in back-to-back weeks, and injuries could accumulate and cause the Huskies trouble the following week, when they continue their road trip at Central Michigan.

Ball State coach Pete Lembo has done an admirable job in Muncie, Indiana, in his four years there. He took over a program that had dropped to the cellar in the West Division, even falling below Eastern Michigan, and he has produced 6-6, 9-4, 10-3, and 5-7 records. This year’s Cardinals squad should be considerably better than last year’s team, but the schedule is not all that favorable. Among their four non-conference games, BSU plays at Texas A&M and at Northwestern. There is still a good chance that Lembo can guide this squad back to bowl eligibility.

There was a time when Central Michigan was the class of the league under former coaches Butch Jones and Brian Kelly. The last three years, Coach Dan Enos took the Chippewas to two bowl games and had a bowl eligible team the other year. However, Enos did not receive a lot of support in Mt. Pleasant, so after last year’s 7-6 season, he resigned to accept the offensive coordinator’s position at Arkansas. New coach John Bonamego has the unenviable task of starting over with a thinned group of Chippewas, and we believe CMU will fall back in the pack just barely ahead of perennial cellar-dweller Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan has suffered through three consecutive 2-10 seasons, and a rebuilding offense will keep the Eagles at two or even fewer wins this year.

Here is a look at the MAC Media Preseason Poll.

Mid-American Conference Media Poll
Pos.	Team	1st Place	Total
MAC East Division
1	Bowling Green	18	160
2t	Akron	2	118
2t	Ohio U	1	118
4	Massachusetts	3	113
5	Buffalo	0	70
6	Miami (O)	0	47
7	Kent St.	0	46

MAC West Division
1	Toledo	11	121
2	Western Michigan	8	120
3	Northern Illinois	4	113
4	Ball St.	0	66
5	Central Michigan	1	56
6	Eastern Michigan	0	28

2015 MAC Championship Game Winner: Toledo (9);
Western Michigan (8); Northern Illinois (6); Central Michigan (1).

The MAC Media did not vote on an official preseason All-Conference Team, so we have included the highest-rated players at each position according to our PiRate Ratings formula.

Conference USA Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense	Player	School
Quarterback	Blake Frohnapfel	Massachusetts
Running Back	Kareem Hunt	Toledo
Running Back	Javion Franklin	Western Michigan
Running Back	Anthone Taylor	Buffalo
Running Back	Travis Greene	Bowling Green
Wide Receiver	Roger Lewis	Bowling Green
Wide Receiver	Tajae Sharp	Massachusetts
Wide Receiver	Corey Davis	Western Michigan
Wide Receiver	Ron Willoughby	Buffalo
Tight End	Rodney Mills	Massachusetts
Offensive Line	Andrew Ness	Northern Illinois
Offensive Line	James Kristof	Western Michigan
Offensive Line	Alex Huettel	Bowling Green
Offensive Line	Willie Beavers	Western Michigan
Offensive Line	Steven Bell	Ball St.

Defense	Player	School
Defensive Line	Trent Voss	Toledo
Defensive Line	Tarell Basham	Ohio U
Defensive Line	Perez Ford	Northern Illinois
Defensive Line	Pat O’Connor	Eastern Michigan
Defensive Line	Orion Jones	Toledo
Linebacker	Great Ibe	Eastern Michigan
Linebacker	Jatavis Brown	Akron
Linebacker	Jovan Santos-Knox	Massachusetts
Defensive Back	Paris Logan	Northern Illinois
Defensive Back	Randall Jette	Massachusetts
Defensive Back	Ronald Zamort	Western Michigan
Defensive Back	Nate Holley	Kent St.
Defensive Back	Tony Annese	Central Michigan
Defensive Back	Marlon Moore	Northern Illinois

Special Teams	Player	School
Kicker	Tyler Tate	Bowling Green
Punter	Anthony Melchiori	Kent St.
Kick Returner	Darius Phillips	Western Michigan
Punt Returner	Ryan Burbrink	Bowling Green
Long Snapper	Wyatt Pfeifer	Western Michigan

Here is how our three PiRate Ratings and the average of the three look to begin the season.

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	93.6	100.1	95.7	96.5
Ohio	89.7	94.1	91.0	91.6
Massachusetts	86.5	90.1	88.3	88.3
Akron	82.2	89.6	83.7	85.2
Kent St.	83.3	87.1	84.6	85.0
Buffalo	78.6	86.1	80.6	81.8
Miami (O)	75.8	83.1	75.9	78.3

West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	96.7	98.1	97.9	97.6
Toledo	95.7	94.1	96.6	95.5
Northern Illinois	91.8	95.1	92.2	93.0
Ball St.	87.4	89.8	88.6	88.6
Central Michigan	80.1	86.6	81.9	82.9
Eastern Michigan	72.7	84.1	72.6	76.5

MAC Averages	85.7	90.6	86.9	87.7

Here is our PiRate Rating Predictions and Bowl Projections.

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall	Bowl
East Division
1	Bowling Green	7-1	7-6 ^	Boca Raton
2	Ohio U	5-3	7-5	Idaho Potato
3	Massachusetts	5-3	6-6	Bowl Elig.
4	Akron	5-3	6-6	At-Large
5	Kent St.	3-5	4-8	None
6	Buffalo	1-7	2-10	None
7	Miami (O)	1-7	2-10	None

West Division
1	Western Michigan	7-1	10-3 *	GoDaddy
2	Toledo	6-2	9-3	Bahamas
3	Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	Camellia
4	Ball St.	4-4	6-6	Bowl Elig.
5	Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	None
6	Eastern Michigan	0-8	1-11	None

*	Wins Title Game
^	Loses Title Game

	Bowl Elig. means the team will probably be left out of the bowls.

Coming up next: The Mountain West Conference

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August 3, 2011

The PiRates Have Returned To Dry Land Ready For Football

Filed under: College Football — Tags: ACC, Atlantic Coast, BCS, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Bowl, Boycott, college, Conference USA, CUSA, football, Independents, MAC, Mid-American, Mountain West, MWC, NCAA, NFL, Pac-12, Preview, Pro, Ratings, SEC, Southeastern, Sunbelt, WAC — piratings @ 8:00 am

When we last spoke with you, it was undecided whether we would present football ratings for 2011-12. At the time, there was no end in sight for the NFL lockout, and we were head strong in support of boycotting the college football season as a show of opposition to the post-season bowls.

In July, as our gardens became tumbleweeds in the oppressive heat, we had some extra time on our hands to discuss just what we would do this year. Upon further review, we have decided to issue our college ratings as usual, but only after we make a special post concerning the bowl games. That will come next week.

As for the NFL, it will be at least three to three and a half weeks before we can update the ratings due to the tight window of wheeling and dealing. We will not be able to offer an in-depth preview of each NFL division like in past years—it will just be ratings and a brief synopsis of how we see the races and playoffs. We will offer a brain-teasing trivia quiz dedicated to those 50 and over who remember the NFL/AFL at its best—in the 1950’s and 1960’s. For those not gifted with gray hair or hairlessness yet, you just might learn some very interesting facts that you can spring on your friends at your local watering hole. Some will be very tricky indeed.

Beginning August 15, we will begin previewing the college conferences. Here is the schedule for those conference previews:

Monday, August 15:SunbeltConference

Tuesday, August 16: Mid-American Conference

Wednesday, August 17: ConferenceUSA

Thursday, August 18: Western Athletic Conference

Friday, August 19: Independents

Monday, August 22: Mountain West Conference

Tuesday, August 23: Big East Conference

Wednesday, August 24:AtlanticCoastConference

Thursday, August 25: Pacific 12 Conference

Friday, August 26: Big 12 Conference

Monday, August 29: Southeastern Conference

Tuesday, August 30: Big Ten Conference

We realize that about 15% of you reading this are fans ofVanderbiltUniversitydown inNashville, who followed our founder when he wrote for Vanderbilt Athletics. We also realize that about 35% of you reading this are residents of the great state ofWisconsinor Badger fans living in the hinterlands. Thus, on August 29, there will be expanded coverage of the Vanderbilt Commodores, and on August 30, there will be expanded coverage on the Wisconsin Badgers, as they compete for the first Leaders Division title and another conference championship in the exciting, expanded Big Ten.

Check back next week for an all-inclusive post about how you can boycott the bowl sponsors and help bring about a post-season playoff. We have a fresh way of satisfying both the bowls and a playoff at the same time. To those that have heard our proposal, we have received 100% approval of our idea. Check back next week for that idea.

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March 12, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 12 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: ACC, Alabama, America East, Arizona, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Coast, basketball, Bethune-Cookman, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Bryson Johnson, Bucknell, Clemson, college, Colorado, Conference, Connecticut, Coppin State, Dayton, Duke, ESPN, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Hampton, Harvard, Illinois, Ivy League, Jared Mintz, Jim Mower, Kansas, Kent State, Kentucky, Lafayette, League, Louisville, MAC, Madison Square Garden, Marquette, Maryland, MEAC, Miami, Miami (Fla), Michigan, Mid-American, Mike Muscala, Mississippi State, Morgan State, NCAA, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Pac 10, Patriot, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Princeton, Purdue, Richmond, SEC, Southeastern, Southern Cal, St. Joseph’s, St. Mary’s, State, Syracuse, Tech, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, tournament, UCSB, Utah State, Vanderbilt, WAC, Washington, Wisconsin, Xavier, Yale — piratings @ 12:11 am

Bucknell Joins The Dance Party

The Bucknell Bison earned the Patriot League’s automatic bid Friday with a 72-54 victory over Lafayette. Versatile big man Mike Muscala led the Bison with 18 points while sharpshooter Bryson Johnson added 15.

Bucknell improved to 25-8 on the season. They project to be a 12 or 13-seed.

12 More Bids To Go Out Saturday

This is the busiest day of the tournament schedule. 13 conferences will crown their champion, and four other conferences will conduct semifinal rounds. All told, every single one of the 21 games scheduled will be televised nationally. Do you have enough televisions and a good high-speed computer?

Here is a conference-by-conference look at all the action.

All Game Times EST

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

Quarterfinal Round

#1 North Carolina 61 #9 Miami 59

#4 Clemson 70 #5 Boston College 47

#2 Duke 87 #7 Maryland 71

#6 Virginia Tech 52 #3 Florida State 51

Semifinal Round

#1 North Carolina (25-6) vs. #4 Clemson (21-10) 1:30 PM ESPN

#2 Duke (28-4) vs. #6 Virginia Tech (21-11) 3:45 PM ESPN

All four teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament. The Hokies secured a spot in the Dance with the nail-biting win over the Seminoles.

America East Conference

Championship Round

#5 Stony Brook (15-16) at #2 Boston U (20-13) 12 Noon ESPN2

Boston U won both regular season meetings. The Terriers won 67-62 at home and 62-49 on the road. They win with their defense, as they only shoot 40.6% from the field.

Atlantic 10 Conference—Atlantic City, NJ

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Dayton 68 #1 Xavier 67

#12 St. Joseph’s 93 #4 Duquesne 90 ot

#2 Temple 96 #10 LaSalle 76

#3 Richmond 55 #6 Rhode Island 45

Semifinal Round

#9 Dayton (21-12) vs. #12 St. Joseph’s (11-21) 1 PM CBS College

#2 Temple (25-6) vs. #3 Richmond (24-7) 3:30 PM CBS College

The Bubble teams will have to sweat it out all the way until Sunday. At least one long shot will advance to the Championship Game. Neither St. Joe’s nor Dayton is getting an at-large bid, and one of the two will be playing for an automatic bid Sunday. Both Temple and Richmond are in the Dance.

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

Semifinal Round

#1 Kansas 90 #5 Colorado 83

#2 Texas 70 #3 Texas A&M 58

Championship Game

#1 Kansas (31-2) vs. #2 Texas (27-6) 6 PM ESPN

The Jayhawks are still playing for the overall number one seed, while Texas is probably locked in on a number two seed. However, with Notre Dame losing, a Longhorn win could put them in the conversation, especially if Duke does not win the ACC Tournament.

Big East Conference—New York City

Semifinal Round

#9 Connecticut 76 #4 Syracuse 71 ot

#3 Louisville 83 #2 Notre Dame 77 ot

Championship Game

#3 Louisville (25-8) vs. #9 Connecticut (25-9) 9 PM ESPN

Connecticut becomes the first team ever to play five games in five days in modern college basketball history. Will they have anything left in the tank next week when it really counts? Louisville’s win more than likely killed any chance for the Irish getting a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Ohio State 67 #8 Northwestern 61 ot

#4 Michigan 60 #5 Illinois 55

#7 Michigan State 74 #2 Purdue 56

#6 Penn State 36 #3 Wisconsin 33

Semifinal Round

#1 Ohio State (30-2) vs. #4 Michigan (20-12) 1:40 PM CBS

#6 Penn State (18-13) vs. #7 Michigan State (19-13) 4 PM CBS

Michigan State has now earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Penn State might move from the Bubble to in the tournament with a win over the Spartans.

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Semifinal Round

#1 Long Beach State 74 #7 UC-Riverside 63

#5 UC-Santa Barbara 83 #3 Cal State Northridge 63

Championship Game

#1 Long Beach State (22-10) vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (17-13) 8 PM ESPN2

Long Beach State won both meetings against the Gauchos in the regular season, and neither game was close. The 49ers are not going to become another Butler or even repeat the exploits of Northern Iowa last year, but they could scare a favored team in the first round. If UCSB wins, then they will make a quick exit in the first round.

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

Semifinal Round

#4 Memphis 76 #8 East Carolina 56

#3 U T E P 66 #2 Tulsa 54

Championship Game

#3 UTEP (25-8) vs. #4 Memphis (24-9) 11:30 AM CBS

The host Miners blew Memphis off the floor 74-47 in their only regular season meeting. That game took place on this court.

Ivy League Playoff

Harvard (23-5) vs. Princeton (24-6) at Yale University 4 PM ESPN3.com

If Princeton wins a close game, there is an outside chance that the Ivy League could get two bids.

Mid-American Conference—Cleveland

Semifinal Round

#6 Akron 79 #2 Western Michigan 68

#1 Kent State 79 #4 Ball State 68

Championship Game

#1 Kent State (23-10) vs. #6 Akron (22-12) 6 PM ESPN2

The winner goes dancing, while the loser can only hope for a trip to Madison Square Garden in late March.

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Semifinal Round

#4 Morgan State 61 #1 Bethune-Cookman 48

#2 Hampton 85 #6 Norfolk State 61

Championship Game

#2 Hampton (23-8) vs. #4 Morgan State (17-13) 2 PM ESPN2

Morgan State goes for a four-peat. The Bears beat Hampton in the regular season 78-72.

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

Semifinal Round

#1 B Y U 87 #5 New Mexico 76

#2 San Diego State 74 #3 UNLV 72

Championship Game

#1 B Y U (30-3) vs. #2 San Diego State (31-2) 7 PM Versus

Is the third time the charm for San Diego State? The Aztecs’ two losses were to the Cougars. If they can hold Jimmer Fredette under 35 points, we have a feeling that SDSU will cut down the nets.

Both teams are legitimate threats to make it to the Sweet 16 and possibly a round or two farther.

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

Semifinal Round

#1 Arizona 67 #4 Southern Cal 62

#3 Washington 69 #7 Oregon 51

Championship Game

#1 Arizona (27-6) vs. #3 Washington (22-10) 6 PM CBS

This should be an exciting game, even though it will not greatly affect the NCAA Tournament seedings.

The two teams split the season series, but the Huskies came close to sweeping. UW won by 17 at home and fell by a single point in Tucson. We think this is a tossup game.

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

Quarterfinal Round

1W Alabama 65 4E Georgia 59 ot

2E Kentucky 75 3W Ole Miss 66

1E Florida 85 5E Tennessee 74

3E Vanderbilt 87 2W Mississippi State 81

Semifinal Round

1W Alabama (21-10) vs. 2E Kentucky (23-8) 1 PM ABC

1E Florida (25-6) vs. 3E Vanderbilt (23-9) 3:30 PM ABC

Alabama played themselves into position to get one of the final at-large bids. The Crimson Tide fans need to route against a Dayton or St. Joseph’s tournament championship in the Atlantic 10, because there is still little room for error for ‘Bama.

Kentucky looks unstoppable at times and then looks like a team that doesn’t belong in the tournament at others. That’s what you get with a bunch of underclassmen and with no depth.

We believe this game will be close for most of the day, but the Wildcats will enjoy one nice spurt in both halves to hold off the Tide by six to 12 points.

Florida is playing about as well as either of their two National Champion teams. It is hard to stop a team with five guys capable of scoring 20 points. The Gators’ have few weaknesses.

Vanderbilt is a lot like Florida, but not as talented. The Commodores have excellent outside shooters, but they cannot create their own shot like Florida’s outside shooters. They have a couple of excellent inside scorers, but they can disappear against Florida’s inside players. We look for the Gators to dominate this one from the beginning and win by double digits.

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Championship Game

#1 McNeese State (21-10) vs. #7 UT-San Antonio (18-13) 4 PM ESPN2

S W A C—Garland, TX

Semifinal Round

#4 Alabama State 73 #1 Texas Southern 66

#6 Grambling 81 #2 Jackson State 75 ot

Championship Game

#4 Alabama State (16-17) vs. #6 Grambling (12-20) 8:30 PM ESPNU

The winner of this game can definitely plan on heading to Dayton for a First Four game.

W A C—Las Vegas

Semifinal Round

#1 Utah State 58 #8 San Jose State 54

#2 Boise State 81 #3 New Mexico State 63

Championship Game

#1 Utah State (29-3) vs. #2 Boise State (20-11) 10 PM ESPN2

Utah State is definitely in the Dance, so if the Broncos can pull off the big upset, another bubble will burst somewhere else.

Note: St. Mary’s defeated Weber State Friday night 77-54 in a non-conference game that was scheduled only two months ago. The Gaels appear to be safe as an at-large team.

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March 11, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 11 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: ACC, Alabama, America East, Arizona, Arkansas, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Coast, Auburn, Ball State, basketball, Bethune-Cookman, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boston College, Bryson Johnson, Bucknell, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, college, Colorado, Conference, Connecticut, Coppin State, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Hampton, Illinois, Indiana, iowa, Jared Mintz, Jim Mower, Kansas, Kent State, Kentucky, Lafayette, League, Louisville, MAC, Madison Square Garden, Marquette, Maryland, MEAC, Miami, Miami (Fla), Michigan, Mid-American, Mike Muscala, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Morgan State, NCAA, North Carolina, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Pac 10, Patriot, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Richmond, SEC, South Carolina, Southeastern, Southern Cal, St. John’s, State, Syracuse, Tech, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, tournament, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Virginia, WAC, Washington, Wisconsin, Xavier — piratings @ 8:47 am

Patriot League Championship—4:45 PM EST On ESPN2

#6 Lafayette (13-18) at #1 Bucknell (24-8)

Lafayette makes an appearance in the conference championship game for the second consecutive year. The Leopards fell to rival Lehigh last season and were tabbed the best team in the league in the preseason. They took a step backward and tumbled to sixth in the league.

Bucknell closed 2010 with an 8-2 finish and returned all five starters and most of their key reserves. The Bison continued to play top-notch ball and ran away with the Patriot League title. Bucknell is on fire, having won nine games in a row by an average of 72-60 and 22 of their last 24 games.

The Bison swept the series against their Keystone State rival, winning 75-56 in Lewisburg and 74-69 in overtime at Easton. Tonight’s game is on the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, so Bucknell will enjoy the home court advantage.

In the earlier game in Lewisburg, Bucknell began the second half of a close game by going on a 20-3 run to put the game out of reach. The Bison held Lafayette to 37% shooting and controlled the boards by 14. In the game at Lafayette, Bucknell led 61-50 with four and a half minutes to go, but the Bison did not score another point in regulation. Lafayette scored 11 consecutive points to force overtime and then briefly took a 64-61 lead at the start of the extra period. The Leopards shot under 40% again and were outrebounded once again.

Bucknell goes just seven-deep, and all seven contribute to the offense. Muscular big man Mike Muscala leads the way with 14.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. The 6-11 Muscala has recorded six double-doubles in the last 15 games. Bryson Johnson is an excellent long-range shooter, and he shoots 47% from three-point range. As a team, Bucknell shoots 40.6% from behind the arc.

Lafayette led the entire game at Holy Cross in the conference tournament quarterfinal. The Leopards placed five players in double figure scoring, and they stole the ball nine times to knock off the Crusaders. In the semifinal round at number two seed American, the Leopards trailed by two points in the final seconds when Jim Mower buried a three-pointer as the clock expired to seal a double overtime victory.

If the Leopards are to pull off the big upset and advance to a First Four game in Dayton next week, big man Jared Mintz will have to neutralize Muscala. Mintz gives away two inches in height, but he has the power to hold his own inside. Mintz leads the Leopards with a 15.8 point scoring average and 5.8 rebound average. Mower averages 12.4 points per game.

Thursday’s Results And Friday’s Games With NCAA Tournament Repercussions

All Times EST

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

1^st Round

#9 Miami 69 #8 Virginia 62

#5 Boston College 81 #12 Wake Forest 67

#7 Maryland 75 #10 North Carolina State 67

#6 Virginia Tech 59 #11 Georgia Tech 43

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Miami (19-13) vs. #1 North Carolina (24-6) 12 Noon ESPN2

#5 Boston College (20-11) vs. #4 Clemson (20-10) Approx. 2:15 PM ESPN2

#7 Maryland (19-13) vs. #2 Duke (27-4) 7 PM ESPN2

#6 Virginia Tech (20-10) vs. #3 Florida State (21-9) Approx. 9:15 PM ESPN2

North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, and Boston College are in. Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Miami are on the bubble. Miami and Maryland must win today, or they are NIT-bound. Virginia Tech is in a near must-win situation. They are on the middle of the bubble.

Atlantic 10 Conference—Atlantic City, NJ

No Games Played Thursday

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Dayton (20-12) vs. #1 Xavier (24-6) 12 Noon CBS College

#12 St. Joseph’s (10-21) vs. #4 Duquesne (18-11) 2:30 PM CBS College

#10 LaSalle (15-17) vs. #2 Temple (24-6) 6:30 PM CBS College

#6 Rhode Island (19-12) vs. #3 Richmond (24-7) 9 PM CBS College

Xavier, Temple, and Richmond are in. Duquesne must win the tournament to get in, so the bubble teams will be pulling for Dayton or Xavier to stop them in the semifinals. Keep an eye on Rhode Island. The Rams are capable of upsetting Richmond and Temple to get to the finals.

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Kansas 53 #9 Oklahoma State 52

#5 Colorado 87 #4 Kansas State 75

#2 Texas 74 #10 Oklahoma 54

#3 Texas A&M 86 #6 Missouri 71

Semifinal Round

#1 Kansas (30-2) vs. #5 Colorado (21-12) 7 PM

#2 Texas (26-6) vs. #3 Texas A&M (24-7) 9:30 PM

Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, and Colorado are in. The Buffalos secured their bid yesterday, so the rest of this tournament is all about the seedings.

Big East Conference—New York City

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Connecticut 76 #1 Pittsburgh 74

#4 Syracuse 79 #5 St. John’s 73

#2 Notre Dame 89 #7 Cincinnati 51

#3 Louisville 81 #11 Marquette 56

Semifinal Round

#9 Connecticut (24-9) vs. #4 Syracuse (26-6) 7 PM ESPN

#2 Notre Dame (26-5) vs. #3 Louisville (24-8) Approx. 9:15 PM ESPN

11, yes 11, teams will receive invitations Sunday evening. This is the strongest league not just this year, but maybe since the Big East placed three teams in the Final Four in 1985. This should be a great finish to the tournament, and Notre Dame has a chance to move to a number one seed if the Irish win it. Any one of these four could still be playing in late March.

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

1^st Round

#8 Northwestern 75 #9 Minnesota 65

#7 Michigan State 66 #10 Iowa 61

#6 Penn State 61 #11 Indiana 55

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Ohio State (29-2) vs. #8 Northwestern (18-12) 12 Noon ESPN

#4 Michigan (19-12) vs. #5 Illinois (19-12) Approx 2:20 ESPN

#2 Purdue (25-6) vs. #7 Michigan State (18-13) 6:30 PM Big Ten Network

#3 Wisconsin (23-7) vs. #6 Penn State (17-13) Approx. 8:45 Big Ten Network

Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois are in. Michigan State can definitely punch a ticket with an upset over Purdue today, and they are still on the highest part of the bubble if they lose. Northwestern and Penn State must win the tournament to get in, although the Nittany Lions could get in the discussion with a loss in the finals. We would not be all that surprised if the Wildcats play Ohio State a close game, at least for 30 to 32 minutes.

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Long Beach State 79 #8 UC-Irvine 72

#5 UC-Santa Barbara 79 #4 Pacific 67

#7 UC-Riverside 70 #2 Cal Poly 66 ot

#3 Cal State Northridge 75 #6 Cal State Fullerton 54

Semifinal Round

#1 Long Beach State (21-10) vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (16-13) 9:30 PM ESPNU

#3 Cal State Northridge (14-17) vs. #7 UC-Riverside (12-18) 12 Midnight ESPNU

The champion is the only team that will advance. Long Beach State has a minimal at best chance of winning a first round game if they are the champion.

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#8 East Carolina 75 #1 U A B 70 ot

#4 Memphis 66 #5 Southern Miss. 63

#3 U T E P 77 #6 Marshall 65

#2 Tulsa 81 #7 Rice 72

Semifinal Round

#2 Tulsa (19-12) vs. #3 U T E P (24-8) 3 PM

#4 Memphis (23-9) vs. #8 East Carolina (18-14) 5:30 PM

At this point, no team is guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance. UAB played their way to the bottom half of the bubble with a loss to ECU. Memphis and UTEP could possibly get into the conversation if they both advance to the championship game. For now, we are projecting just the champion to make it into the tournament. The host Miners enjoy a large home court advantage and should top Tulsa in a thriller today.

Mid-American Conference—Cleveland

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Western Michigan 67 #7 Bowling Green 56

#6 Akron 82 #3 Miami (O) 75 2ot

#1 Kent State 73 #8 Buffalo 62

#4 Ball State 76 #5 Ohio U 73 ot

Semifinal Round

#2 Western Michigan (20-11) vs. #6 Akron (21-12) 7 PM

#1 Kent State (22-10) vs. #4 Ball State (19-12) 9:30 PM

The MAC has been down in recent years, but the eventual champion of this tournament could be a formidable opponent as a number 13 or 14 seed for a better team in the first round.

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Quarterfinal Round

#4 Morgan State 77 #5 North Carolina A&T 59

#6 Norfolk State 55 #3 Coppin State 53

Semifinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman (21-11) vs. #4 Morgan State (16-13) 6 PM

#2 Hampton (22-8) vs. #6 Norfolk State (12-19) Approx. 8:15 PM

These teams are playing for a probable spot in the First Four. The first semifinal will be a thriller; the top-seeded Wildcats face the three-time defending champion Bears.

Hampton has been a surprise team, and they should have an easier contest and be more rested for the championship.

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

Quarterfinal Round

#1 B Y U 64 #9 T C U 58

#5 New Mexico 67 #4 Colorado State 61

#2 San Diego State 64 #7 Utah 50

#3 U N L V 69 #6 Air Force 53

Semifinal Round

#1 B Y U (29-3) vs. #5 New Mexico (21-11) 9 PM CBS College

#2 San Diego State (30-2) vs. #3 U N L V (24-7) 11:30 PM CBS College

BYU, San Diego State, and UNLV are in. Colorado State played themselves into the NIT with the loss yesterday to New Mexico. As for the Lobos, with a third win over BYU today, they could get into the conversation, but they probably need to earn the automatic bid to go dancing.

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Arizona 78 #9 Oregon State 69

#4 Southern Cal 70 #5 California 56

#7 Oregon 76 #2 U C L A 59

#3 Washington 89 #6 Washington State 87

Semifinal Round

#1 Arizona (26-6) vs. #4 Southern Cal (19-13) 9 PM Fox Sports

#3 Washington (21-10) vs. #7 Oregon (16-16) 11:30 PM Fox Sports

Arizona, UCLA, and Washington are in. Oregon must win this tournament to get in. As for Southern Cal, the Trojans might work their way into one of the final bubble spots with an upset over the top-seeded Wildcats tonight. Last night’s battle of the Evergreen State was one of the most exciting of the tournament season with the Huskies coming from behind to knock off arch-rival Washington State by two.

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

1^st Round

#4E Georgia 69 #5W Auburn 51

#3W Ole Miss 66 #6E South Carolina 55

#5E Tennessee 74 #4W Arkansas 68

#3E Vanderbilt 62 #6W L S U 50

Quarterfinal Round

#1W Alabama (21-10) vs. #4E Georgia (20-10) 1 PM

#2E Kentucky (22-8) vs. #3W Ole Miss (20-12) 3:30 PM

#1E Florida (24-6) vs. #5E Tennessee (19-13) 7:30 PM

#2W Mississippi State (17-13) vs. #3E Vanderbilt (22-9) 10 PM

Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are definitely in. Tennessee is probably in and would only be out if a lot of surprise winners win the remaining conference tournaments. The Vols would safely secure a spot with a win over the Gators.

The big game in all of college basketball today is the Georgia-Alabama game. Call this an extra play-in game. The winner survives to the Dance, while the loser will be hosting an NIT game next week.

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Semifinal Round

#1 McNeese State 91 #4 Texas State 83

#7 UT-San Antonio 79 #3 Sam Houston State 70

Championship Game on Saturday

S W A C—Garland, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#4 Alabama State 81 #5 Alabama A&M 61

#6 Grambling 65 #3 Mississippi Valley 62

Semifinal Round

#2 Jackson State (17-14) vs. #6 Grambling (11-20) 3:30 PM

#1 Texas Southern (19-11) vs. #4 Alabama State (15-17) 9 PM

The Champion will probably be forced to play in the First Four. Jackson State is on a mission after losing in the first round last year as the number one seed.

W A C—Las Vegas

Quarterfinal Round

#8 San Jose State 74 #4 Idaho 68

#3 New Mexico State 66 #6 Nevada 60

Semifinal Round

#1 Utah State (28-3) vs. #8 San Jose State (17-14) 9 PM

#2 Boise State (19-11) vs. #3 New Mexico State (16-16) 11:30 PM ESPN2

Utah State is in and should be the higher seed in their first round game. If the Aggies are upset, then one more bubble will burst. The one WAC team that beat USU (Idaho) was knocked out of the conference tournament yesterday.

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March 10, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 10 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: ACC, Alabama, America East, Arizona, Arkansas, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Coast, Auburn, Ball State, basketball, Bethune-Cookman, Big 12, Big East, Big Sky, Big Ten, Boston College, Bowling Green, Brian Qvale, Bucknell, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, college, Colorado, Conference, Connecticut, Coppin State, Devon Beitzel, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia, Hampton, Illinois, Indiana, iowa, Jamal Olasewere, Julian Boyd, Kansas, Kent State, Kentucky, Lafayette, League, Long Island, Louisville, LSU, MAC, Madison Square Garden, Marquette, Maryland, MEAC, Miami, Miami (Fla), Michigan, Mid-American, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Missouri, Montana, Morgan State, NCAA, NEC, North Carolina, northeast, Northern Colorado, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Pac 10, Patriot, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Richmond, robert morris, Russell Johnson, SEC, South Carolina, Southeastern, Southern Cal, St. John’s, Stanford, State, Syracuse, Tech, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, tournament, UCLA, Utah State, Vanderbilt, Velton Jones, Villanova, Virginia, WAC, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Western Michigan, Wisconsin, Xavier — piratings @ 6:50 am

Two Newest Dance Participants

Northeast Conference Championship

Long Island 85 Robert Morris 82 ot

In what may have been the most exciting championship game of the season, the home-standing Blackbirds and visiting Colonials exchanged leads all night. Two missed three-point shots in the final seconds, one at the buzzer, was all that prevented this game from going to double overtime.

LIU opened with a cold shooting hand, and RMU took the lead. Once the Blackbirds started hitting their shots, this became a game of runs. LIU had the hot hand in the second half, but RMU kept getting enough offensive rebounds to keep the Colonials in the game.

Jamal Olasewere had a game-high 31 points to go with 11 rebounds; he scored seven points in the overtime. Team leader Julian Boyd was held to just seven points, but the Blackbirds had excellent showings off the bench. Jason Brickman tossed in 15 points and dished out eight big assists, while Kenny Onyechi added 13 points.

Russell Johnson and Velton Jones teamed up for 42 points for the losers.

LIU will be a formidable opponent for their favored foe in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Their style of play could cause severe matchup problems for a bigger, slower team, especially if that team is not the strongest ball-handling team. If they were to be bracketed against BYU in the first round, it would be the thriller of the first round.

Big Sky Conference Championship

Northern Colorado 65 Montana 60

This game was anticlimactic following the NEC Championship. Montana kept the pace slow, and the Grizzlies shot out to a 7-0 lead in the first two and a half minutes. UNC made a run to take its first lead at 17-16 on a three-point shot by Tate Unruh.

The lead switched hands several times the remainder of the half with the buzzer sending the teams to the locker tied at 31-31.

Montana maintained a small lead for most of the second half, until star guard Devon Beitzel took over. His three-pointer at the 4:56 mark gave the Bears the lead for good. Beitzel continued shooting and then forced Montana to foul him, and the Bears hung on to win.

Beitzel did not score until late in the first half, but the Big Sky Conference’s leading scorer finished with 27 points.

Montana center Brian Qvale hit a layup with 16 seconds remaining to cut the lead to 62-60, but following two made Beitzel free throws, Art Steward committed a turnover to seal the game.

Steward led the Grizzlies with 16 points, while Qvale added 11.

Northern Colorado will be one of those teams that will be glad just to be there at the NCAA Tournament. The Bears should make a quick exit in game one, unless they are chosen as one of the First Four #16 seeds.

13 Automatic Qualifiers To Date

Team	Conference	Record
Arkansas-Little Rock	Sunbelt	19-16
Belmont	Atlantic South	30-4
Butler	Horizon	23-9
Gonzaga	West Coast	24-9
Indiana State	Missouri Valley	20-13
Long Island	Northeast	27-4
Morehead State	Ohio Valley	24-9
Northern Colorado	Big Sky	21-10
Oakland	Summit	25-9
Old Dominion	Colonial	27-6
St. Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	20-13
UNC-Asheville	Big South	19-13
Wofford	Southern	21-12

No Championship Games Are Scheduled For Thursday

Wednesday’s Results/Thursday’s Schedule

All Times EST

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

1^st Round

#8 Virginia (16-14) vs. #9 Miami (Fla) (18-13) 12 Noon

#5 Boston College (19-11) vs. #12 Wake Forest (8-23) Approx. 2:15 PM

#7 Maryland (18-13) vs. #10 North Carolina State (15-15) 7 PM ESPN2

#6 Virginia Tech (19-10) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (13-17) Approx. 9:15 PM

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

1^st Round

#9 Oklahoma State 53 #8 Nebraska 52

#5 Colorado 77 #12 Iowa State 75

#10 Oklahoma 84 #7 Baylor 67

#6 Missouri 88 #11 Texas Tech 84

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Oklahoma State (19-12) vs. #1 Kansas (29-2) 12:30 PM on ESPN2

#5 Colorado (20-12) vs. #4 Kansas State (22-9) 3PM

#10 Oklahoma (14-17) vs. #2 Texas (25-6) 7 PM

#6 Missouri (23-9) vs. #3 Texas A&M (23-7) 9:30 PM

Big East Conference—New York City

2^nd Round

#9 Connecticut 79 #8 Georgetown 62

#5 St. John’s 65 #13 Rutgers 63

#7 Cincinnati 87 #15 South Florida 61

#11 Marquette 67 #6 West Virginia 61

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Connecticut (23-9) vs. #1 Pittsburgh (27-4) 12 Noon ESPN

#5 St. John’s (21-10) vs. #4 Syracuse (25-6) Approx. 2:15 PM ESPN

#7 Cincinnati (25-7) vs. #2 Notre Dame (25-5) 7 PM ESPN

#11 Marquette (20-13) vs. #3 Louisville (23-8) Approx. 9:15 PM ESPN

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

1st Round

#8 Northwestern (17-12) vs. #9 Minnesota (17-13) 2:30 PM ESPN2

#7 Michigan State (17-13) vs. #10 Iowa (11-19) 4:50 PM ESPN2

#6 Penn State (16-13) vs. #11 Indiana (12-19) 7:30 PM Big Ten Network

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Long Beach State (20-10) vs. #8 UC-Irvine (13-18) 3 PM

#4 Pacific (16-14) vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (15-13) 5:20 PM

#2 Cal Poly (15-14) vs. #7 UC-Riverside (11-18) 9 PM

#3 Cal State Northridge (13-17) vs. #6 Cal State Fullerton (11-19) 11:20 PM

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

1^st Round

#8 East Carolina 78 #9 Central Florida 60

#5 Southern Miss. 63 #12 Tulane 47

#6 Marshall 97 #11 Houston 87

#10 Rice 58 #7 S M U 57

Quarterfinal Round

#8 East Carolina (17-14) vs. #1 U A B (22-7) 1PM CBSC

#5 Southern Miss (22-9) vs. #4 Memphis (22-9) 3:30 PM CBSC

#6 Marshall (22-10) vs. #3 U T E P (23-8) 7:30 PM CBSC

#10 Rice (14-17) vs. #2 Tulsa (18-12) 10 PM CBSC

M A C—Cleveland

Quarterfinal Round

#7 Bowling Green (14-18) vs. #2 Western Michigan (19-11) 12 Noon

#6 Akron (20-12) vs. #3 Miami (O) (16-15) 2:30 PM

#8 Buffalo (18-12) vs. #1 Kent State (21-10) 7 PM

#5 Ohio U (18-14) vs. #4 Ball State (18-12) 9:30 PM

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Note: The MEAC has a unique scheduling format which rewards its top three seeds. Thus, yesterday, there were both first round and quarterfinal round games scheduled. The quarterfinal round concludes today.

1^st Round

#6 Norfolk State 68 #11 Howard 53

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman 66 #9 South Carolina State 50

#2 Hampton 77 #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore 55

Quarterfinal Round Continues

#4 Morgan State (15-13) vs. #5 North Carolina A&T (15-16) 8 PM

#3 Coppin State (16-13) vs. #6 Norfolk State (11-19) 7 PM

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

1^st Round

#9 T C U 70 #8 Wyoming 61

Quarterfinal Round

#9 T C U (11-21) vs. #1 Brigham Young (28-3) 3 PM

#5 New Mexico (20-11) vs. #4 Colorado State (19-11) 5:30 PM

#7 Utah (13-17) vs. #2 San Diego State (29-2) 9 PM

#6 Air Force (15-14) vs. #3 U N L V (23-7) 11:30 PM

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

1^st Round

#9 Oregon State 69 #8 Stanford 67

#7 Oregon 76 #10 Arizona State 69

Quarterfinal Round

#4 Southern Cal (18-13) vs. #5 California (17-13) 3 PM Fox Sports

#1 Arizona (25-6) vs. #9 Oregon State (11-19) 5:30 PM Fox Sports

#2 U C L A (22-9) vs. #7 Oregon (15-16) 9 PM Fox Sports

#3 Washington (20-10) vs. #6 Washington State (19-11) 11:30 PM Fox Sports

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

1^st Round

#4E Georgia (20-10) vs. #5W Auburn (11-19) 1 PM

#3W Ole Miss (19-12) vs. #6E South Carolina (14-15) 3:30 PM

#4W Arkansas (18-12) vs. #5E Tennessee (18-13) 7:30 PM

#3W Vanderbilt (21-9) vs. #6E L S U (11-20) 10 PM

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#1 McNeese State 61 #8 Nicholls State 54

#4 Texas State 72 #5 Southeastern Louisiana 68

#7 Texas-San Antonio 97 #2 Northwestern State (LA) 96

#3 Sam Houston State 61 #6 Stephen F. Austin 45

Semifinal Round

#3 Sam Houston State (18-12) vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (17-13) 7 PM

#1 McNeese State (20-10) vs. #4 Texas State (16-15) 9:30 PM

S W A C–Garland, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Texas Southern 50 #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 45

#2 Jackson State 50 #7 Prairie View 38

Quarterfinal Round Continues

#3 Mississippi Valley (13-18) vs. #6 Grambling (10-20) 12:30 PM

#4 Alabama State (14-17) vs. #5 Alabama A&M (13-14) 9 PM

W A C—Las Vegas

1^st Round

#8 San Jose State 75 #5 Hawaii 74

#6 Nevada 90 #7 Fresno State 80

2^nd Round

#4 Idaho (18-12) vs. #8 San Jose State (16-14) 3 PM ESPNU

#3 New Mexico State (15-16) vs. #6 Nevada (13-18) 5:30 PM ESPNU

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March 9, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Albany, America East, American, Arch Madness, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Ball State, basketball, Belmont, Bethune-Cookman, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Boston, Bowling Green, Brian Qvale, Bucknell, Butler, Central Connecticut, Chattanooga, Cincinnati, Cleveland State, Coastal Carolina, college, College of Charleston, Conference, Connecticut, Coppin State, Creighton, Denver, Devon Beitzel, East Tennessee, Fairfield, Florida Atlantic, Furman, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Hampton, Holy Cross, Horizon, Indiana State, IPFW, IUPUI, Jacksonville, Jamal Olasewere, Julian Boyd, Kent State, Lafayette, League, Liberty, Lipscomb, Long Island, Louisiana Lafayette, Louisville, MAAC, MAC, Madison Square Garden, Maine, Marquette, MEAC, Mercer, Miami, Mid-American, Middle Tennessee, Milwaukee, Missouri State, Missouri Valley, Montana, Morehead State, Morgan State, Murray State, NCAA, NEC, northeast, Northern Colorado, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Oakland, Ohio, Ohio Valley, Oral Roberts, OVC, Patriot, Pittsburgh, Quinnipiac, Richmond, robert morris, Russell Johnson, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Southern Conference, St. John’s, St. Mary’s, Summit League, Sunbelt Conference, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, tournament, U Mass, UNC-Asheville, UNCA, Valparaiso, Velton Jones, Vermont, Villanova, VMI, West Coast Conference, West Virginia, Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, Wichita State, Wofford, Xavier — piratings @ 8:25 am

Three More Tickets Punched

Horizon League Championship

Butler 59 Milwaukee 44

The Bulldogs held Milwaukee to 30% shooting from the field, and Matt Howard connected on seven of nine shots to pace Butler with 18 points, as the defending National Final runner-up earned another spot in the Big Dance.

Summit League Championship

Oakland 90 Oral Roberts 76

The Golden Grizzlies displayed a great offensive show with the aid of numerous first half steals by Drew Valentine and Reggie Hamilton to build a double-digit lead by the break. After withstanding an early second half run by the Golden Eagles, Oakland pulled away to win the automatic bid.

Keith Benson topped Oakland with 28 points and 14 rebounds. Hamilton added 25 with six assists, while Will Hudson recorded a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds.

Sunbelt Conference Championship

U A L R 64 North Texas 63

The Trojans won their first Sunbelt Championship and earned their first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1990.

SBC Player of the Year Solomon Bozeman drove from the backcourt to the left side of the top of the key and drained a three-pointer with 1.5 seconds remaining to give UALR the decisive points. Bozeman scored a game-high 20 points.

North Texas had led by seven points with less than two minutes to go, but the Mean Green wilted under the Trojan pressure defense. With one last chance to try to win, UNT committed a turnover on the inbounds pass.

11 Automatic Qualifiers To Date

Team	Conference	Record
Arkansas-Little Rock	Sunbelt	19-16
Belmont	Atlantic South	30-4
Butler	Horizon	23-9
Gonzaga	West Coast	24-9
Indiana State	Missouri Valley	20-13
Morehead State	Ohio Valley	24-9
Oakland	Summit	25-9
Old Dominion	Colonial	27-6
St. Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	20-13
UNC-Asheville	Big South	19-13
Wofford	Southern	21-12

Two Tickets To Be Punched Tonight

Big Sky Tournament Championship @ 9PM ET On ESPN2

#2 Montana (21-9) at #1 Northern Colorado (20-10)

Semifinal Round

Montana 57 Weber State 40

Northern Colorado 73 Northern Arizona 70

These two split their regular season series with Northern Colorado winning 63-45 in Greeley, and Montana winning 55-42 in Missoula. Tonight’s game will be played at Butler-Hancock Hall in Greeley, so Northern Colorado will enjoy the home court advantage.

This game is a great study in contrasts. Northern Colorado is a quicker team, but Montana is a stronger team. Northern Colorado has one exceptionally dominant player, while Montana has more, albeit less exceptional, weapons.

The Bears’ offense runs through 6-1 senior guard Devon Beitzel. Beitzel averages a league-best 21 points per game, and he is deadly at the free throw line, where he connects on 91% of his tosses.

The rest of the team collectively shoots under 41% from the field and commits more turnovers than assists, so if the Grizzlies can stop Beitzel, or at least limit his touches, they have a chance of defending their crown.

Montana has the dominant big man in the conference in 6-11/260 senior center Brian Qvale. If the Grizzlies can keep this game a half-court affair, they stand a great chance of winning with Qvale plugging the middle on defense and controlling the boards at both ends of the court. Qvale averages 15 points and nine boards a game, and he had a double-double with 16 points and 17 rebounds in the semifinal round. Montana likes to limit possessions, so those numbers are even more impressive than they look.

In the win over UNC, Montana held the Bears to 23.3% shooting, while they shot just 32.6% in the loss at Greeley.

It is our opinion that the visiting number two seed will pull off the mild upset over the host numbone seed, but it is not a strong feeling.

Northeast Conference Tournament Championship @ 7PM ET On ESPN2

#3 Robert Morris (18-13) at #1 Long Island (26-5)

Semifinal Round

Long Island 69 Central Connecticut 67

Robert Morris 64 Quinnipiac 62

Brooklyn has not been this excited over one of their own sports teams since the Dodgers won the 1955 World Series. Long Island is one of the most exciting teams in the nation, and their 26-5 record has throngs of Brooklynites cramming into the Wellness, Recreation, and Athletic Center. The WRAC holds just 2,500 seats, but you can bet that more than that amount will find their way into the game tonight, as they “Pack the WRAC.”

Those fans will be converging to the corner of Ashland and Dekalb tonight, dressed in all white, to watch what could be a blowout win for their team.

LIU is on a roll. The Blackbirds have won 12 games in a row (longest current streak in the nation) and 20 of their previous 21 games. They average almost 83 points per game. The Blackbirds have exceptional depth with eight players capable of scoring 15 or more points.

The Blackbirds pose difficult matchups with their roster, as they rely on quick guards and medium-sized forwards with great leaping ability to play at a fast pace. There is no center on the roster, but the two 6-7 forwards have controlled the boards in most games this year.

Those forwards are Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere, who team up for 25.4 points and 15.7 rebounds per game.

5-10 backup guard Jason Brickman plays just 22 minutes per game, but he leads the team with 5.3 assists per game. When he comes in the game, the pace picks up, and the Blackbirds shoot a lot of threes in transition.

Robert Morris is definitely not cannon fodder. The Colonials are the two-time defending NEC Tournament champions, and they believe they can three peat even on the road in hostile conditions.

The Colonials have won eight games in a row, relying on a stellar defense that limits possessions and pressures the guards. They are missing their leading scorer, as 5-9 guard Karon Abraham’s season ended two weeks ago with a torn Achilles Tendon. On the positive side, Abraham missed RMU’s win at LIU on December 2, as he was serving a multi-game suspension.

Velton Jones and Russell Johnson will have to shine tonight for the Colonials to pull off the upset. The duo are the only double figure scorers left, but both shoot less than 39% from the field.

Without Abraham, RMU shoots just 33.7% from behind the arc, so the only way they can possibly win tonight is to replicate the formula that was successful more than three months ago—control the tempo and prevent LIU from getting off any uncontested three-pointers.

We believe this game will begin slowly with RMU taking the lead in the early stages. Somewhere in the first half, LIU will go on one of their patented runs and gain the lead. Then, a second spurt will give them a commanding lead. RMU might cut into that lead, but we believe in the end, the Blackbirds will be celebrating at the WRAC. We do not believe the Brooklynites will be crying “Wait ‘Til Next Year.” This will be like October of 1955 in the borough.

Yesterday’s Other Tournament Results

Atlantic 10 Conference

First Round

LaSalle 75 St. Bonaventure 73 2ot

St. Joseph’s 71 George Washington 59 ot

Rhode Island 70 St. Louis 61

Dayton 78 U Mass 50

Big East Conference

First Round

Connecticut 97 DePaul 71

Rutgers 76 Seton Hall 70 ot

South Florida 70 Villanova 69

Marquette 87 Providence 66

M A C

First Round

Bowling Green 74 Northern Illinois 54

Ohio U 74 Toledo 57

Akron 67 Eastern Michigan 53

Buffalo 64 Central Michigan 50

M E A C

First Round

MD-Eastern Shore 87 F A M U 85 2ot

S. C. State 64 Delaware State 59

Ivy League Playoff Set

Princeton defeated rival Penn 70-58 last night in Philadelphia, forcing a one-game playoff for the Ivy League’s automatic berth. Princeton (24-6) will take on co-champion Harvard (23-5) Saturday afternoon at 4PM Eastern Time. The game will be played at Yale University in New Haven, CT, and it can be seen live on ESPN3.com.

Princeton has appeared in all seven Ivy League tiebreaking playoff games in the history of the league. This is Harvard’s first Ivy League basketball championship of any kind. The Crimson last appeared in the NCAA Tournament in 1946.

There is a chance that the loser of this game could hold a slim chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Harvard is ranked #35 in the RPI, while Princeton is ranked #49. Harvard has two wins over top 50 teams as well as three losses. Their biggest win was at Boston College. Princeton has just one win against the top 50 and two losses. For the Ivy to earn two bids, the Tigers have to win Saturday and hope Harvard’s high RPI is enough to earn the second bid.

Conference Tournaments In Action Today

Big 12 Conference

Tournament Site: Kansas City

1^st Round Games

#8 Nebraska (19-11) vs. #9 Oklahoma State (18-12) 12:30 PM ET

#5 Colorado (19-12) vs. #12 Iowa State (16-15) 3 PM ET

#7 Baylor (18-12) vs. #10 Oklahoma (13-17) 7PM ET

#6 Missouri (22-9) vs. #11 Texas Tech (13-18) 9:30 PM ET

Big East Conference

Tournament Site: New York City

2^nd Round Games

#8 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #9 Connecticut (22-9) 12 Noon ET on ESPN

#5 St. John’s (20-10) vs. #13 Rutgers (15-16) Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN

#7 Cincinnati (24-7) vs. #15 South Florida (10-22) 7 PM ET on ESPN

#6 West Virginia (20-10) vs. #11 Marquette (19-13) Approx. 9:15 PM ET on ESPN

Conference USA

Tournament Site: El Paso, TX

1^st Round Games

#8 East Carolina (16-14) vs. #9 Central Florida (19-10) 1 PM ET

#5 Southern Miss (21-9) vs. #12 Tulane (13-16) 3:30 PM ET

#6 Marshall (21-10) vs. #11 Houston (12-17) 7:30 PM ET

#7 S M U (17-13) vs. #10 Rice (13-17) 10 PM ET

M E A C

Tournament Site: Winston-Salem, NC

Note: The MEAC has a unique way of scheduling their tournament. As a result, one first round game will be played today as well as two quarterfinal round games. The other two quarterfinal round games will be played Thursday.

1^st Round

#6 Norfolk State () vs. #11 Howard () 3 PM ET

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman (20-11) vs. #9 South Carolina State (10-21) 7 PM ET

#2 Hampton (21-8) vs. #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (9-21) 9:30 PM ET

Mountain West Conference

Tournament Site: Las Vegas

1^st Round

#8 Wyoming (10-20) vs. #9 T C U (10-21) 5 PM ET

Pac-10 Conference

Tournament Site: Los Angeles

1^st Round

#8 Stanford (15-15) vs. #9 Oregon State (10-19) 9 PM ET on Fox Sports Net

#7 Oregon (14-16) vs. #10 Arizona State (12-18) 11:30 PM ET on Fox Sports Net

Southland Conference

Tournament Site: Katy, TX (Houston Area)

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Northwestern State (LA) (18-13) vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (16-13) 1 PM ET

#3 Sam Houston (17-12) vs. #6 Stephen F. Austin (18-10) 3:30 PM ET

#1 McNeese State (19-10) vs. #8 Nicholls State (14-13) 7 PM ET

#4 Texas State (15-15) vs. #5 Southeastern Louisiana (15-13) 9:30 PM ET

S W A C

Tournament Site: Garland, TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth Area)

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Jackson State (16-14) vs. #7 Prairie View (10-21) 12:30 PM ET

#1 Texas Southern (18-11) vs. #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (7-23) 9 PM ET

W A C

Tournament Site: Las Vegas

1^st Round

#5 Hawaii (18-11) vs. #8 San Jose State (15-14) 3 PM ET

#6 Nevada (12-18) vs. #7 Fresno State (14-16) 5:30 PM ET

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March 8, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 8 Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: Albany, America East, American, Arch Madness, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Ball State, basketball, Belmont, Bethune-Cookman, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Boston, Bowling Green, Bucknell, Butler, Central Connecticut, Chattanooga, Cincinnati, Cleveland State, Coastal Carolina, college, College of Charleston, Conference, Connecticut, Coppin State, Creighton, Denver, East Tennessee, Fairfield, Florida Atlantic, Furman, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Hampton, Holy Cross, Horizon, Indiana State, IPFW, IUPUI, Jacksonville, Kent State, Lafayette, League, Liberty, Lipscomb, Long Island, Louisiana Lafayette, Louisville, MAAC, MAC, Madison Square Garden, Maine, Marquette, MEAC, Mercer, Miami, Mid-American, Middle Tennessee, Milwaukee, Missouri State, Missouri Valley, Montana, Morehead State, Morgan State, Murray State, NCAA, northeast, Northern Colorado, Northern Iowa, Notre Dame, Oakland, Ohio, Ohio Valley, Oral Roberts, OVC, Patriot, Pittsburgh, Quinnipiac, Richmond, robert morris, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Southern Conference, St. John’s, St. Mary’s, Summit League, Sunbelt Conference, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech, tournament, U Mass, UNC-Asheville, UNCA, Valparaiso, Vermont, Villanova, VMI, West Coast Conference, West Virginia, Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, Wichita State, Wofford, Xavier — piratings @ 8:59 am

The Four Newest Dance Invitees

Did you see those conference championship games last night? Was this the Monday Night Fights or basketball? There were more cut men and cut women than in your average boxing card.

When it is all or nothing for these smaller conferences, you get what we saw last night—teams playing like their lives were on the line.

Colonial Athletic Association

Old Dominion 70

Virginia Commonwealth 65

Old Dominion 27-6

The Monarchs are capable of making a semi-surprise run in the Big Dance. They lead the nation in rebounding margin, and they can score points in the paint.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

St. Peter’s 62

Iona 57

St. Peter’s 20-13

The Peacocks beat Alabama earlier in the season, and their defense could keep them within striking defense in an opening round game, but we cannot see SPC advancing to the second round.

Southern Conference

Wofford 77

College of Charleston 67

Wofford 21-12

The Terriers finally beat the Cougars (we predicted this yesterday), and they will not roll over and play dead in the first round. This team returns to the Dance for the second consecutive season, and they will not back down. They may not advance, but they will not be in awe of their heavily favored first round opponent.

West Coast Conference

Gonzaga 75

Saint Mary’s 63

Gonzaga 24-9

This edition of Zags may not be the most talented in the Coach Mark Few era, but they are playing their best ball at the right time. It will depend on their bracket, but this team has Sweet 16 potential.

Three More Invitations Go Out Tonight

By 11:15 PM Eastern Time tonight, we will know the names of three more NCAA Tournament participants. Let’s break down these games.

Horizon League Championship @ 9PM ET on ESPN

Butler (22-9) at Milwaukee (19-12)

Butler defeated Cleveland State in the semifinal round Saturday evening, while Milwaukee topped Valparaiso. During the regular season, Milwaukee swept the Bulldogs, winning 76-52 at home and 86-80 in overtime on the road. The top-seeded Panthers host this game.

Both teams are red hot coming into this title match. Milwaukee has gone 10-1 in their last 11 games, and the only loss was in the Bracketbuster to Buffalo. Their defense is what got them here, as they shoot only 43% from the field and 65% at the foul line.

Three Panthers average double figures in scoring, led by Anthony Hill. Hill averages just under 16 points per game, but he broke out with a 24-point, 11-rebound performance in the semifinal game against Valpo. Kaylon Williams is the X-factor for Panthers. He can score when needed, rebound with the big men, and run the offense. He recorded a triple-double earlier in the season against Butler (10 points-10 rebounds-10 assists), and he added a double-double in the second win over the Bulldogs.

Butler missed Gordon Hayward even more than most experts predicted. The Bulldogs played a tough pre-conference schedule and limped into February. With their backs against the wall, they reeled off eight consecutive victories to get to the title game tonight.

Most basketball fans know Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack from last year’s team that made the surprise run to the National Championship Game. The duo has teamed for 32 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this year. However, it has been the emergence of 6-11 sophomore center Andrew Smith that has allowed Butler to turn things around and look like a force to be reckoned with once again. Smith averaged 11 points per game over the second half of the season. In the eight game winning streak, he has averaged 32 minutes per game and pulled down close to eight rebounds per game. His 63% field goal percentage has forced defenses to stop him first, giving Howard and Mack more room to get open. Smith was a non-factor in the two games against Milwaukee, and he is the key to tonight’s game. If he plays 32 minutes and gets double figure points and eight rebounds, Butler will be cutting down the nets yet again.

Summit League Championship @ 9PM ET on ESPN2

Site: Sioux Falls, SD

Oakland (24-9) vs. Oral Roberts (19-14)

If you like high-scoring, fast-paced games, you will definitely clear your schedule to view this one. Oakland is the second best offensive team in the nation, averaging 86 points per game (92 ppg in their last 10 games). The Grizzlies connect on close to 50% of their field goal attempts, and they tend to hit spurts where they score 10 points in two minutes. Oral Roberts averages 81 points per game and has no qualms running with Oakland.

Both teams are riding major winning streaks entering tonight’s title game. Oakland has won 17 of their last 18 games, while the Golden Eagles have won 10 in a row. In the regular season, Oakland won both high-scoring games, but both were nail-biters that went down to the wire.

Oakland has a tall and short combination that has done a lot of the damage on opponents. 6-11 center Keith Benson is the best player in the league. Benson averages 17.7 points and 10 rebounds per game. He showed he can do it against the big schools, as he had 17 points and 12 rebounds in a close loss to Michigan State and 26 points and 10 rebounds in a big win at Tennessee.

5-11 guard Reggie Hamilton is a threat to top 20 points any night. He is quick and can get open without help from screens.

Oral Roberts has a star in its own right. Dominique Morrison averages just under 20 points per game, and he doesn’t need to heave up 25 shots per game to get those points. Morrison shoots 51.3% from the field, 40% from behind the three-point line, and 78.4% at the foul line. He scored 56 points in the two games against Oakland.

This should be a great game, and we don’t believe Oakland is that much of a favorite. ORU has been to the Big Dance four times in the last six years, while Oakland is the defending tournament champion. We expect the winner to top 90 points in this game, and it is too close to call. We say Oakland has about a 54% chance and Oral Roberts a 46% chance of winning.

Sunbelt Conference Championship @ 7PM ET on ESPN2

Site: Hot Springs, AR

North Texas (22-10) vs. U A L R (18-16)

On paper this looks like a mismatch, even though the teams finished one game apart in the regular season. North Texas finished fourth in the West with an 8-8 league mark, while Little Rock finished fifth at 7-9.

North Texas was one of the biggest underachievers this season. The Mean Green returned four starters from their 2010 conference champion team and were expected to win again this year with the best backcourt and one of the best frontcourts in the league. Instead, a 3-9 swoon in the middle of the season placed them out of contention for the West crown. Since that awful slide, UNT has recovered with five consecutive victories.

6-5 senior guard Tristan Thompson has led the way for the Mean Green in the tournament, scoring 80 points in the first three games. He has done a lot of the damage at the foul line, where he is 31-35 in Hot Springs, including an unbelievable 20-20 performance in the win over top-seed Florida Atlantic. Thompson combines a quick move to the basket with a sweet shot from outside. Beefy forward George Odufuwa averages 11 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, and UALR has a tough matchup problem against him.

The Trojans dropped both regular season games to North Texas, mostly because they could not compete under the basket. Their chance to win this game will come down to limiting possessions and trying to win 55-50. They have won three games in the tournament by getting to the foul line and hitting foul shots, while using the clock and taking 30 seconds to shoot on most possessions. UALR’s big star in this tournament has been senior guard Solomon Bozeman. Like Thompson, Bozeman has gotten to the free throw line and made the most of his opportunities. He has connected on 37 of 42 attempts including an eye-popping 19 of 22 against Middle Tennessee last night.

We expect a low-possession, low-scoring game. There may be fewer than 100 field goal attempts tonight. North Texas has been there before, while UALR has never won the Sunbelt Conference Tournament. We think that trend will continue, but it wouldn’t surprise us if this game stays relatively close for the entire 40 minutes. We could see North Texas winning 60-54.

The Other Tournaments In Action Today

Atlantic 10 Conference

First Round At Higher Seed Home Court

#9 Dayton (19-12) at #8 U Mass (15-14) 9PM ET on CBSC

#12 St. Joseph’s (9-21) at #5 George Washington (17-13) 7PM ET on CBSC

#10 LaSalle (14-17) at #7 St. Bonaventure (16-13) 5 PM ET on CBSC

#11 St. Louis (12-18) at #6 Rhode Island (18-12) 7 PM ET no TV

Big East Conference

Madison Square Garden in New York City

#16 Depaul (7-23) vs. #9 Georgetown (21-9) 12 Noon ET on ESPN2

#13 Rutgers (14-16) vs. #12 Seton Hall (13-17) Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN2

#15 South Florida (9-22) vs. #10 Villanova (21-10) 7PM ET on ESPNU

#14 Providence (15-16) vs. #11 Marquette (18-13) Approx 9:15 ET on ESPNU

Big Sky Conference

Semifinal Round At Higher Seed Home Court

#3 Weber State (18-11) at #2 Montana (20-9)

#4 Northern Arizona (19-11) at #1 Northern Colorado (19-10)

Mid-American Conference

1^st Round At Higher Seed Home Court All Games At 7PM ET

#10 Northern Illinois (9-20) at #7 Bowling Green (13-18)

#11 Eastern Michigan (9-21) at #6 Akron (19-12)

#9 Central Michigan (10-20) at #8 Buffalo (17-12)

#12 Toledo (4-27) at #5 Ohio U (17-14)

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Lawrence Joel Coliseum in Winston-Salem, NC

#9 South Carolina State (9-21) vs. #8 Delaware State (9-20) 9PM ET

#10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-21) vs. #7 Florida A&M (12-19) 6:30 PM ET

Note: One more 1^st round game Wednesday plus two quarterfinal games

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December 6, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Filed under: College Football — Tags: ACC, Alabama, Alamo Bowl, Arizona, Arkansas, Armed Forces Bowl, Army, Auburn, BBVA Compass Bowl, Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boise State, Bowl Projections, California, Capital One Bowl, Champs Sports Bowl, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Clemson, college, college football, Computer, Conference, Conference USA, Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Florida, Florida State, football, Gator Bowl, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Godaddy.com Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Houston, Humanitarian Bowl, Independence Bowl, Insight Bowl, iowa, Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Little Caesar’s Bowl, LSU, MAC, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Military Bowl, Mississippi State, Missouri, Mountain West, Music City Bowl, National Championship Game, Navy, NCAA, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico Bowl, New Orleans Bowl, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Outback Bowl, Pac 10, Penn State, Pinstripe Bowl, Poinsettia Bowl, Power Ratings, Predictions, Ratings, Rose Bowl, SEC, South Carolina, spreads, Stanford, Sugar Bowl, Sun Bowl, Sunbelt, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Bowl, Texas Tech, Ticket City Bowl, Top 25, Utah, Virginia Tech, WAC, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin — piratings @ 7:28 am

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay. Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week. For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs. It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work. We choose to go with a 12-team playoff. We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid. Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs. Here are the seeds and brackets.

1. Auburn

2. Oregon

3. T C U

4. Stanford

5. Wisconsin

6. Ohio State

7. Oklahoma

8. Arkansas

9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia. That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	132.5	12	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Auburn	131.0	13	0
5	Boise State	128.8	11	1
6	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
7	Oklahoma	127.7	11	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	124.2	11	2
12	Florida State	119.8	9	4
13	South Carolina	119.4	9	4
14	Nebraska	118.9	10	3
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	117.0	9	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Nevada	115.7	12	1
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Florida	115.3	7	5
23	Missouri	115.2	10	2
24t	Arizona	115.2	7	5
24t	Iowa	115.2	7	5

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
*Atlantic Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-4	119.8
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0

*Coastal Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	11-2	124.2
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

Big East Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	117.0
Pittsburgh	5-2	7-5	110.7
Connecticut	5-2	8-4	108.0
South Florida	3-4	7-5	106.9
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-5	4-8	100.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-6	4-8	89.5

Big Ten

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Illinois	4-4	6-6	104.4
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

Big 12
*North Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-3	118.9
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2

*South Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	11-2	127.7
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

Conference USA
*East Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	10-3	102.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7

*West Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-6	92.7
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

Independents

Team	Overall	Rating
Notre Dame	7-5	108.9
Navy	8-3	102.6
Army	6-5	88.2

Mid American Conference
*East Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Miami (O)	7-1	9-4	90.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7

*West Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-3	104.1
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

Mountain West Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-11	80.4
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

Pac-10 Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	9-0	12-0	132.5
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-5	7-5	115.2
Southern Cal	5-4	8-5	112.0
Arizona St.	4-5	6-6	111.0
Oregon St.	4-5	5-7	109.6
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	5-4	6-6	107.1
U C L A	2-7	4-8	101.8
Washington State	1-8	2-10	94.2

Southeastern Conference
*East Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-4	119.4
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8

*West Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	13-0	131.0
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

Sunbelt Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-2	6-6	87.0
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	6-2	7-5	85.8
Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	82.8
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1
Florida Atlantic	3-5	4-8	73.7

Western Athletic Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-1	11-1	128.8
Nevada	7-1	12-1	115.9
Hawaii	7-1	10-3	108.9
Fresno State	5-3	8-4	98.2
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7	93.0
Idaho	3-5	6-7	88.1
Utah State	2-6	4-8	88.0
San Jose State	0-8	1-12	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
*Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)*

Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Navy	Army (Philadelphia)	14.4	31-17

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
*Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)*

Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army (Philadelphia)	31-23	27-21

A Look At The Bowls

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year.

All Times Eastern Standard

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM ESPN

B Y U 6-6 vs. U T E P 6-6

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM ESPN

Northern Illinois 10-3 vs. Fresno State 8-4

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM ESPN

Troy 7-5 vs. Ohio U 8-4

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM ESPN

Louisville 6-6 vs. Southern Mississippi 8-4

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM ESPN

Utah 10-2 vs. Boise State 11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM ESPN

San Diego State 8-4 vs. Navy 8-3 (+ Army Game)

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM ESPN

Hawaii 10-3 vs. Tulsa 9-3

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM ESPN

Florida International 6-6 vs. Toledo 8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM ESPN-2

Georgia Tech 6-6 vs. Air Force 8-4

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM ESPN

West Virginia 9-3 vs. North Carolina St. 8-4

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM ESPN

Missouri 10-2 vs. Iowa 7-5

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM ESPN

Maryland 8-4 vs. East Carolina 6-6

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM ESPN

Baylor 7-5 vs. Illinois 7-5

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM ESPN

Oklahoma State 10-2 vs. Arizona 7-5

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon ESPN

S M U 7-6 vs. Army 6-5 (+ Navy Game)

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM ESPN

Syracuse 7-5 vs. Kansas State 7-5

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM ESPN

Tennessee 6-6 vs. North Carolina 7-5

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM ESPN

Nebraska 10-3 vs. Washington 6-6

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon ESPN

Clemson 6-6 vs. South Florida 7-5

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM CBS

Miami (FL) 7-5 vs. Notre Dame 7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM ESPN

Georgia 6-6 vs. Central Florida 10-3

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM ESPN

South Carolina 9-4 vs. Florida State 9-4

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon ESPN-U

Northwestern 6-6 vs. Texas Tech 7-5

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM ABC

Florida 7-5 vs. Penn State 7-5

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM ESPN

Michigan State 11-1 vs. Alabama 9-3

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM ESPN-2

Michigan 7-5 vs. Mississippi State 8-4

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM ESPN

T C U 12-0 vs. Wisconsin 11-1

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM ESPN

Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Connecticut 8-4

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM ESPN

Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Stanford 11-1

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM ESPN

Arkansas 10-2 vs. Ohio State 11-1

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM ESPN

Middle Tennessee State 6-6 vs. Miami (OH) 9-4

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM Fox

Texas A&M 9-3 vs. L S U 10-2

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon ESPN

Pittsburgh 7-5 vs. Kentucky 6-6

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM ESPN

Boston College 7-5 vs. Nevada 12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM ESPN

Auburn 13-0 vs. Oregon 12-0

Comments Off

November 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

Filed under: College Football — Tags: ACC, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Army, Auburn, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Boise State, Bowl Projections, California, Clemson, college, college football, Computer, Conference, Conference USA, Florida, Florida State, football, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Houston, iowa, LSU, MAC, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Missouri, Mountain West, Navy, NCAA, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pac 10, Penn State, Power Ratings, Predictions, Ratings, SEC, South Carolina, spreads, Stanford, Sunbelt, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Top 25, Utah, Virginia Tech, WAC, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin — piratings @ 5:13 pm

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers. We won all three. We went back to what was working and found three gems. Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks. We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction. We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl. Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift. When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job. Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate. Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984. Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright. We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back. Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points. We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season. Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright. All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week. Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	131.9	11	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Boise State	130.6	10	1
5	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
6	Auburn	127.5	12	0
7	Oklahoma	127.1	10	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	123.1	10	2
12	South Carolina	122.9	9	3
13	Florida State	120.9	9	3
14	Nebraska	119.5	10	2
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	116.8	8	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Arizona	116.3	7	4
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Nevada	115.3	11	1
23	Florida	115.3	7	5
24	Missouri	115.2	10	2
25	Iowa	115.2	7	5

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
*Atlantic Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-3	120.9
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0

*Coastal Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	10-2	123.1
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

Big East Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	4-2	8-3	116.8
Pittsburgh	4-2	6-5	108.6
Connecticut	4-2	7-4	107.6
South Florida	3-3	7-4	107.3
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-4	4-7	102.8
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-5	4-7	89.7

Big Ten

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

Big 12
*North Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-2	119.5
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2

*South Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	10-2	127.1
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

Conference USA
*East Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	9-3	103.2
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7

*West Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-5	92.4
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

Independents

Team	Overall	Rating
Notre Dame	7-5	108.9
Navy	8-3	102.6
Army	6-5	88.2

Mid American Conference
*East Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Miami (O)	7-1	8-4	87.8
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7

*West Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-2	106.9
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

Mountain West Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-10	82.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

Pac-10 Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	8-0	11-0	131.9
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-4	7-4	116.3
Southern Cal	4-4	7-5	111.0
Oregon St.	4-4	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	3-5	5-6	109.9
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	4-4	5-6	106.9
U C L A	2-6	4-7	102.8
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

Southeastern Conference
*East Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-3	122.9
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8

*West Division*
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	12-0	127.5
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

Sunbelt Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-1	6-5	88.4
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	5-2	6-5	82.8
Middle Tennessee	4-3	5-6	81.4
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Florida Atlantic	3-4	4-7	76.7
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1

Western Athletic Conference

Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-1	10-1	130.6
Nevada	6-1	11-1	115.3
Hawaii	7-1	9-3	106.8
Fresno State	5-3	7-4	97.5
Louisiana Tech	4-3	5-6	93.6
Idaho	2-5	5-7	89.3
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-7	1-11	77.3
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
*Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)*

Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	8.9	31-22

Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	4.1	31-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O) (Detroit)	19.1	42-23

Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Southern Cal	U C L A	6.2	34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	2.7	20-17
Oregon	OREGON STATE	18.7	45-26
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	10.0	31-21
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	30.1	42-12
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	2.8	24-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	10.0	34-24
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	3.1	30-27
BOISE STATE	Utah State	47.4	61-14
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	18.2	35-17
IDAHO	San Jose State	14.5	38-23
HAWAII	U n l v	28.3	49-21
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	4.6	35-30
Virginia Tech	Florida State (Charlotte)	2.2	25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	13.8	35-21
Oklahoma	Nebraska (Dallas)	7.6	21-13

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
*Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)*

Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	31-21	27-24

Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	34-31	34-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O) (Detroit)	35-24	41-20

Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Southern Cal	U C L A	31-21	30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	27-24	27-23
Oregon	OREGON STATE	49-26	51-19
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	35-27	35-20
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	34-14	34-14
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	34-22	28-26
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	31-24	34-28
BOISE STATE	Utah State	56-20	59-17
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	37-17	35-31
IDAHO	San Jose State	42-24	45-28
HAWAII	U n l v	49-20	48-14
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	38-24	34-24
Virginia Tech	Florida State (Charlotte)	26-25	27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	34-26	35-30
Oklahoma	Nebraska (Dallas)	21-16	22-20

Bowl Projections Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	B Y U 6-6	WAC (#3?)	Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Miami (O) 8-5	WAC #(1) or 2	Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	Connecticut 7-5	C-USA #4-6	Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO	MWC #1	Utah 10-2	Pac 10 #5	[Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	S. D. State 8-4	Navy or WAC	*NAVY 9-3*
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	*HAWAII* *10-3*	C-USA #2-6	Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Louisville 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	Notre Dame 7-5	ACC #3	N. C. State 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 7-5
Military	ACC #8	Boston Coll. 7-5	C-USA #6	E C U 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Penn State 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Oklahoma St. 10-2	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	S M U 7-6	MWC #3-5/Army	Army 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 7-5	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Maryland 8-4
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	N. Carolina 8-4	Big East #3-4	S. Florida 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	Miami (FL) 7-5	Pac 10 #4	[Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6	C-USA #1	Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	Miss. State 8-4	ACC #2	Florida State 9-4
Ticket City	Big 10 #6-7	Northwestern 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 7-5
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan St. 11-1	SEC #2	L S U 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Illinois 7-5	SEC #6	Florida 7-5
Rose	BCS Pac10	T C U 12-0	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 11-2	BCS At-Large	Stanford 11-1
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	West Va. 9-3
Sugar	BCS SEC	Ohio State 11-1	BCS At-Large	Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 7-5	MAC #1 or 2	Toledo 8-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska 10-3	SEC #3-6 W	Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass	Big East #5	Pittsburgh 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Temple 8-4]	WAC #1	Nevada 11-1
Championship Game	* BCS #1 *	Oregon 12-0	* BCS #2 *	Auburn 13-0

Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

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The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 15, 2017

2017 Mid-American Conference Preview

August 12, 2015

2015 Mid-American Conference Preview

August 3, 2011

The PiRates Have Returned To Dry Land Ready For Football

March 12, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 12 Update

March 11, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 11 Update

March 10, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 10 Update

March 9, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update

March 8, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 8 Update

December 6, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

November 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

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