With Texas A&M having to back out of the Gator Bowl due to multiple positive Covid cases, The Gator Bowl has now extended an invitation to Rutgers to face Wake Forest. Below are the new PiRate Ratings spreads for that game. Let’s hope this is the only game affected.
| Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
| Wake Forest | Rutgers | 19.1 | 17.4 | 19.1 |
We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview. We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.
Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day. Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game.
Sunday, December 26
Little Caesar’s Bowl
Detroit, MI
8:30 PM EST on ESPN
Toledo (8-4) vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)
Vegas: Toledo by 1
Totals: 57
PiRate: Toledo by 3.3
Mean: Toledo by 2.8
Bias: Toledo by 16.8
100 Sims: Toledo 67 Florida International 33
Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6 Florida International 25.7
Outlier A: Toledo 49 Florida International 19
Outlier B: Florida International 37 Toledo 24
Monday, December 27
Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA
5:00 PM EST on ESPN
Air Force (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6)
Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½
Totals: 56
PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7
Mean: Air Force by 5.2
Bias: Air Force by 5.9
100 Sims: Air Force 55 Georgia Tech 45
Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2 Georgia Tech 26.9
Outlier A: Air Force 41 Georgia Tech 23
Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34 A Force 23
Tuesday, December 28
Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando, FL
6:30 PM EST on ESPN
West Virginia (9-3) vs. North Carolina State (8-4)
Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½
Totals: 49
PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8
Mean: West Virginia by 2.3
Bias: West Virginia by 3.0
100 Sims: West Virginia 53 North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)
Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8 North Carolina State 25.2
Outlier A: West Virginia 27 North Carolina State 10
Outlier B: North Carolina State 28 West Virginia 12
Insight Bowl
Tempe, AZ
10:00 PM EST
Missouri (10-2) vs. Iowa (7-5)
Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½
Totals: 46 ½
PiRate: Even
Mean: Missouri by 4.1
Bias: Missouri by 12.6
100 Sims: Missouri 58 Iowa 42
Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6 Iowa 22.3
Outlier A: Missouri 31 Iowa 13
Outlier B: Iowa 21 Missouri 7
Wednesday, December 29
Military Bowl
Washington, D.C.
2:30 PM on EST
Maryland (8-4) vs. East Carolina (6-6)
Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½
Totals: 68 ½
PiRate: Maryland by 18.4
Mean: Maryland by 11.2
Bias: Maryland by 13.8
100 Sims: East Carolina 51 Maryland 49
Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4 East Carolina 34.1
Outlier A: East Carolina 47 Maryland 31
Outlier B: Maryland 42 East Carolina 20
Texas Bowl
Houston, TX
6:00 PM EST on ESPN
Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-6)
Vegas: Baylor by 1
Totals: 62 ½
PiRate: Baylor by 2.4
Mean: Illinois by 1.6
Bias: Baylor by 6.9
100 Sims: Illinois 54 Baylor 46
Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1 Baylor 28.6
Outlier A: Illinois 34 Baylor 17
Outlier B: Baylor 28 Illinois 18
Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX
9:15 PM EST on ESPN
Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½
Totals: 66
PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1
Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1
Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6
100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61 Arizona 39
Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0 Arizona 29.1
Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51 Arizona 27
Outlier B: Arizona 34 Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)
Thursday, December 30
Armed Forces Bowl
Dallas, TX
12:00 Noon EST on ESPN
S M U (7-6) vs. Army (6-6)
Vegas: S M U by 7
Totals: 52
PiRate: S M U by 7.7
Mean: S M U by 3.2
Bias: S M U by 10.6
100 Sims: S M U 64 Army 36
Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2 Army 20.6
Outlier A: S M U 34 Army 10
Outlier B: Army 24 S M U 16
Pinstripe Bowl
New York, NY
3:20 PM EST
Syracuse (7-5) vs. Kansas State (7-5)
Vegas: Pick’em
Totals: 47 ½
PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5
Mean: Kansas State by 4.6
Bias: Syracuse by 2.3
100 Sims: Syracuse 53 Kansas State 47
Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1 Kansas State 18.6
Outlier A: Syracuse 24 Kansas State 7
Outlier B: Kansas State 17 Syracuse 3
Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN
6:30 PM EST
Tennessee (6-6) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½
Totals: 50 ½
PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8
Mean: North Carolina by 1.5
Bias: Tennessee by 6.6
100 Sims: Tennessee 50 North Carolina 50
Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5 North Carolina 23.9
Outlier A: Tennessee 30 North Carolina 14
Outlier B: North Carolina 27 Tennessee 12
Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA
10:00 PM EST
Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6)
Vegas: Nebraska by 14
Totals: 52 ½
PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8
Mean: Nebraska by 11.5
Bias: Nebraska by 5.3
100 Sims: Nebraska 57 Washington 43
Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1 Washington 19.3
Outlier A: Nebraska 27 Washington 6
Outlier B: Washington 23 Nebraska 14
Friday, December 31
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Charlotte, NC
12:00 Noon EST
South Florida (7-5) vs. Clemson (6-6)
Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½
Totals: 40 ½
PiRate: Clemson by 5.1
Mean: Clemson by 3.7
Bias: South Florida by 6.1
100 Sims: South Florida 58 Clemson 42
Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1 Clemson 19.2
Outlier A: South Florida 31 Clemson 12
Outlier B: Clemson 28 South Florida 16
Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX
2:00 PM EST on CBS
Notre Dame (7-5) vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)
Vegas: Miami by 3
Totals: 47
PiRate: Miami by 6.3
Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2
Bias: Miami by 6.0
100 Sims: Notre Dame 52 Miami 48
Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4 Miami 23.2
Outlier A: Notre Dame 30 Miami 14
Outlier B: Miami 35 Notre Dame 14
Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN
3:30 PM EST on ESPN
Central Florida (10-3) vs. Georgia (6-6)
Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½
Totals: 55 ½
PiRate: Georgia by 12.8
Mean: Georgia by 5.3
Bias: Georgia by 11.3
100 Sims: Georgia 72 Central Florida 28
Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6 Central Florida 17.3
Outlier A: Georgia 38 Central Florida 10
Outlier B: Central Florida 24 Georgia 19
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA
7:30 PM EST on ESPN
South Carolina (9-4) vs. Florida State (9-4)
Vegas: South Carolina by 3
Totals: 55
PiRate: Florida State by 0.4
Mean: South Carolina by 0.5
Bias: Florida State by 1.6
100 Sims: Florida State 52 South Carolina 48
Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7 Florida State 26.6
Outlier A: Florida State 30 South Carolina 16
Outlier B: South Carolina 44 Florida State 17
Saturday, January 1
TicketCity Bowl
Dallas, TX
12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U
Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Northwestern (7-5)
Vegas: Texas Tech by 10
Totals: 60
PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5
Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3
Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6
100 Sims: Texas Tech 86 Northwestern 14
Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6 Northwestern 21.2
Outlier A: Texas Tech 45 Northwestern 17
Outlier B: Northwestern 30 Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)
Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL
1:00 PM EST on ABC
Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)
Vegas: Florida by 7 ½
Totals: 48
PiRate: Florida by 13.2
Mean: Florida by 5.1
Bias: Florida by 5.5
100 Sims: Florida 54 Penn State 46
Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6 Penn State 19.8
Outlier A: Florida 28 Penn State 13
Outlier B: Penn State 21 Florida 10
Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL
1:00 PM EST on ESPN
Michigan State (11-1) vs. Alabama (9-3)
Vegas: Alabama by 10
Totals: 52 ½
PiRate: Alabama by 15.5
Mean: Alabama by 10.4
Bias: Alabama by 3.2
100 Sims: Alabama 59 Michigan State 41
Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6 Michigan State 24.7
Outlier A: Alabama 31 Michigan State 12
Outlier B: Michigan State 35 Alabama 25
Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL
1:30 PM EST on ESPN2
Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Michigan (7-5)
Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½
Totals: 61
PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3
Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3
Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8
100 Sims: Mississippi State 52 Michigan 48
Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7 Michigan 30.1
Outlier A: Mississippi State 38 Michigan 20
Outlier B: Michigan 36 Mississippi State 27
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA
5:00 PM EST on ESPN
T C U (12-0) vs. Wisconsin (11-1)
Vegas: T C U by 3
Totals: 58 ½
PiRate: T C U by 7.9
Mean: T C U by 5.8
Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6
100 Sims: Wisconsin 54 T C U 46
Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4 T C U 28.8
Outlier A: Wisconsin 40 T C U 24
Outlier B: T C U 34 Wisconsin 24
Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ
8:30 PM EST
Oklahoma (11-2) vs. Connecticut (8-4)
Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2
Totals: 55
PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7
Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2
Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7
100 Sims: Oklahoma 91 Connecticut 9
Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3 Connecticut 14.8
Outlier A: Oklahoma 49 Connecticut 7
Outlier B: Connecticut 27 Oklahoma 23
Have To Wait A Day
Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay. Check back tomorrow to see how we did.
NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return
In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week. For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs. It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.
Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work. We choose to go with a 12-team playoff. We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.
Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid. Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.
Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:
Automatic Qualifiers
ACC Champion: Virginia Tech
Big East Champion: Connecticut
Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin
Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma
Pac-10 Champion: Oregon
SEC Champion: Auburn
Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.
Mountain West Champion: T C U
WAC co-Champion: Boise State
This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.
At-large: Stanford
At-large: Ohio State
At-large: Arkansas
At-large: Michigan State
Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs. Here are the seeds and brackets.
1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. T C U
4. Stanford
5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma
8. Arkansas
9. Michigan State
10. Boise State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Connecticut
Round One
Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut
Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech
Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State
Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State
Quarterfinal Round
Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner
Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer
Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner
Semifinal Round
Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner
Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner
Simper Bowl
National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner
Check back next Monday for Round One results.
The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings
The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia. That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.
| NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010 | ||||
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Won | Lost |
| 1 | T C U | 133.1 | 12 | 0 |
| 2 | Oregon | 132.5 | 12 | 0 |
| 3 | Stanford | 131.8 | 11 | 1 |
| 4 | Auburn | 131.0 | 13 | 0 |
| 5 | Boise State | 128.8 | 11 | 1 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 128.3 | 11 | 1 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 127.7 | 11 | 2 |
| 8 | Alabama | 126.2 | 9 | 3 |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 125.2 | 11 | 1 |
| 10 | Arkansas | 124.7 | 10 | 2 |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | 124.2 | 11 | 2 |
| 12 | Florida State | 119.8 | 9 | 4 |
| 13 | South Carolina | 119.4 | 9 | 4 |
| 14 | Nebraska | 118.9 | 10 | 3 |
| 15 | Texas A&M | 118.5 | 9 | 3 |
| 16 | L S U | 117.7 | 10 | 2 |
| 17 | West Virginia | 117.0 | 9 | 3 |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | 116.3 | 10 | 2 |
| 19 | Nevada | 115.7 | 12 | 1 |
| 20 | Georgia | 115.7 | 6 | 6 |
| 21 | Mississippi State | 115.6 | 8 | 4 |
| 22 | Florida | 115.3 | 7 | 5 |
| 23 | Missouri | 115.2 | 10 | 2 |
| 24t | Arizona | 115.2 | 7 | 5 |
| 24t | Iowa | 115.2 | 7 | 5 |
| Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point | ||||
| even though I rank them to two decimal points | ||||
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |||
| Atlantic Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Florida State | 6-2 | 9-4 | 119.8 |
| Clemson | 4-4 | 6-6 | 111.0 |
| North Carolina State | 5-3 | 8-4 | 110.2 |
| Maryland | 5-3 | 8-4 | 105.9 |
| Boston College | 4-4 | 7-5 | 105.0 |
| Wake Forest | 1-7 | 3-9 | 92.0 |
| Coastal Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Virginia Tech | 8-0 | 11-2 | 124.2 |
| Miami-FL | 5-3 | 7-5 | 115.2 |
| North Carolina | 4-4 | 7-5 | 114.8 |
| Georgia Tech | 4-4 | 6-6 | 108.5 |
| Duke | 1-7 | 3-9 | 95.9 |
| Virginia | 1-7 | 4-8 | 95.0 |
| Big East Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| West Virginia | 5-2 | 9-3 | 117.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 5-2 | 7-5 | 110.7 |
| Connecticut | 5-2 | 8-4 | 108.0 |
| South Florida | 3-4 | 7-5 | 106.9 |
| Louisville | 3-4 | 6-6 | 104.1 |
| Cincinnati | 2-5 | 4-8 | 100.7 |
| Syracuse | 4-3 | 7-5 | 100.0 |
| Rutgers | 1-6 | 4-8 | 89.5 |
| Big Ten | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Ohio State | 7-1 | 11-1 | 128.3 |
| Wisconsin | 7-1 | 11-1 | 125.2 |
| Iowa | 4-4 | 7-5 | 115.2 |
| Michigan State | 7-1 | 11-1 | 110.7 |
| Michigan | 3-5 | 7-5 | 105.3 |
| Penn State | 4-4 | 7-5 | 104.6 |
| Illinois | 4-4 | 6-6 | 104.4 |
| Minnesota | 2-6 | 3-9 | 96.1 |
| Northwestern | 3-5 | 7-5 | 92.9 |
| Purdue | 2-6 | 4-8 | 91.1 |
| Indiana | 1-7 | 5-7 | 90.1 |
| Big 12 | |||
| North Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Nebraska | 6-2 | 10-3 | 118.9 |
| Missouri | 6-2 | 10-2 | 115.2 |
| Kansas State | 3-5 | 7-5 | 100.0 |
| Colorado | 2-6 | 5-7 | 99.6 |
| Iowa State | 3-5 | 5-7 | 94.9 |
| Kansas | 1-7 | 3-9 | 88.2 |
| South Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Oklahoma | 6-2 | 11-2 | 127.7 |
| Texas A&M | 6-2 | 9-3 | 118.5 |
| Oklahoma State | 6-2 | 10-2 | 116.3 |
| Texas | 2-6 | 5-7 | 106.3 |
| Baylor | 4-4 | 7-5 | 105.3 |
| Texas Tech | 3-5 | 7-5 | 104.4 |
| Conference USA | |||
| East Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Central Florida | 7-1 | 10-3 | 102.9 |
| Southern Mississippi | 5-3 | 8-4 | 98.4 |
| East Carolina | 5-3 | 6-6 | 90.0 |
| U A B | 3-5 | 4-8 | 86.3 |
| Marshall | 4-4 | 5-7 | 83.8 |
| Memphis | 0-8 | 1-11 | 70.7 |
| West Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Tulsa | 6-2 | 9-3 | 98.3 |
| Houston | 4-4 | 5-7 | 96.3 |
| S M U | 6-2 | 7-6 | 92.7 |
| U T E P | 3-5 | 6-6 | 86.0 |
| Rice | 3-5 | 4-8 | 84.5 |
| Tulane | 2-6 | 4-8 | 74.6 |
| Independents | |||
| Team | Overall | Rating | |
| Notre Dame | 7-5 | 108.9 | |
| Navy | 8-3 | 102.6 | |
| Army | 6-5 | 88.2 | |
| Mid American Conference | |||
| East Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Temple | 5-3 | 8-4 | 92.6 |
| Miami (O) | 7-1 | 9-4 | 90.6 |
| Ohio U | 6-2 | 8-4 | 89.4 |
| Kent St. | 4-4 | 5-7 | 82.9 |
| Bowling Green | 1-7 | 2-10 | 75.0 |
| Buffalo | 1-7 | 2-10 | 70.2 |
| Akron | 1-7 | 1-11 | 67.7 |
| West Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Northern Illinois | 8-0 | 10-3 | 104.1 |
| Toledo | 7-1 | 8-4 | 89.3 |
| Western Michigan | 5-3 | 6-6 | 88.8 |
| Central Michigan | 2-6 | 3-9 | 83.7 |
| Ball State | 3-5 | 4-8 | 73.9 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-6 | 2-10 | 66.9 |
| Mountain West Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| T C U | 8-0 | 12-0 | 133.1 |
| Utah | 7-1 | 10-2 | 111.1 |
| Air Force | 5-3 | 8-4 | 106.8 |
| B Y U | 5-3 | 6-6 | 104.8 |
| S. D. State | 5-3 | 8-4 | 104.4 |
| Wyoming | 1-7 | 3-9 | 88.0 |
| UNLV | 2-6 | 2-11 | 80.4 |
| Colo. State | 2-6 | 3-9 | 79.8 |
| New Mexico | 1-7 | 1-11 | 75.2 |
| Pac-10 Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Oregon | 9-0 | 12-0 | 132.5 |
| Stanford | 8-1 | 11-1 | 131.8 |
| Arizona | 4-5 | 7-5 | 115.2 |
| Southern Cal | 5-4 | 8-5 | 112.0 |
| Arizona St. | 4-5 | 6-6 | 111.0 |
| Oregon St. | 4-5 | 5-7 | 109.6 |
| California | 3-6 | 5-7 | 108.4 |
| Washington | 5-4 | 6-6 | 107.1 |
| U C L A | 2-7 | 4-8 | 101.8 |
| Washington State | 1-8 | 2-10 | 94.2 |
| Southeastern Conference | |||
| East Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| South Carolina | 5-3 | 9-4 | 119.4 |
| Georgia | 3-5 | 6-6 | 115.7 |
| Florida | 4-4 | 7-5 | 115.3 |
| Tennessee | 3-5 | 6-6 | 106.0 |
| Kentucky | 2-6 | 6-6 | 105.9 |
| Vanderbilt | 1-7 | 2-10 | 86.8 |
| West Division | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Auburn | 8-0 | 13-0 | 131.0 |
| Alabama | 5-3 | 9-3 | 126.2 |
| Arkansas | 6-2 | 10-2 | 124.7 |
| L S U | 6-2 | 10-2 | 117.7 |
| Mississippi State | 4-4 | 8-4 | 115.6 |
| Ole Miss | 1-7 | 4-8 | 100.1 |
| Sunbelt Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Florida International | 6-2 | 6-6 | 87.0 |
| Arkansas State | 4-4 | 4-8 | 83.9 |
| Troy | 6-2 | 7-5 | 85.8 |
| Middle Tennessee | 5-3 | 6-6 | 82.8 |
| North Texas | 3-5 | 3-9 | 79.7 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 4-4 | 5-7 | 78.1 |
| U. of Louisiana | 3-5 | 3-9 | 77.6 |
| Western Kentucky | 2-6 | 2-10 | 75.1 |
| Florida Atlantic | 3-5 | 4-8 | 73.7 |
| Western Athletic Conference | |||
| Team | Conf. | Overall | Rating |
| Boise State | 7-1 | 11-1 | 128.8 |
| Nevada | 7-1 | 12-1 | 115.9 |
| Hawaii | 7-1 | 10-3 | 108.9 |
| Fresno State | 5-3 | 8-4 | 98.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 4-4 | 5-7 | 93.0 |
| Idaho | 3-5 | 6-7 | 88.1 |
| Utah State | 2-6 | 4-8 | 88.0 |
| San Jose State | 0-8 | 1-12 | 78.5 |
| New Mexico State | 1-7 | 2-10 | 71.9 |
| This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings | |||
| Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points) | |||
| Saturday, December 11 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog | Spread | Score |
| Navy | Army (Philadelphia) | 14.4 | 31-17 |
| This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings | |||
| Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points) | |||
| Saturday, December 11 | |||
| Favorite | Underdog | Mean | Bias |
| Navy | Army (Philadelphia) | 31-23 | 27-21 |
A Look At The Bowls
Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year.
All Times Eastern Standard
Saturday, December 18
The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM
2:00 PM ESPN
B Y U 6-6 vs. U T E P 6-6
The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID
5:30 PM ESPN
Northern Illinois 10-3 vs. Fresno State 8-4
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA
9:00 PM ESPN
Troy 7-5 vs. Ohio U 8-4
Tuesday, December 21
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL
8:00 PM ESPN
Louisville 6-6 vs. Southern Mississippi 8-4
Wednesday, December 22
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV
8:00 PM ESPN
Utah 10-2 vs. Boise State 11-1
Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team
Thursday, December 23
San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA
8:00 PM ESPN
San Diego State 8-4 vs. Navy 8-3 (+ Army Game)
Friday, December 24
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI
8:00 PM ESPN
Hawaii 10-3 vs. Tulsa 9-3
Sunday, December 26
Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI
8:30 PM ESPN
Florida International 6-6 vs. Toledo 8-4
Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team
Monday, December 27
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA
5:00 PM ESPN-2
Georgia Tech 6-6 vs. Air Force 8-4
Tuesday, December 28
Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL
6:30 PM ESPN
West Virginia 9-3 vs. North Carolina St. 8-4
Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ
10:00 PM ESPN
Missouri 10-2 vs. Iowa 7-5
Wednesday, December 29
Military Bowl—Washington, DC
2:30 PM ESPN
Maryland 8-4 vs. East Carolina 6-6
Texas Bowl—Houston, TX
6:00 PM ESPN
Baylor 7-5 vs. Illinois 7-5
Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX
9:15 PM ESPN
Oklahoma State 10-2 vs. Arizona 7-5
Thursday, December 30
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX
12 Noon ESPN
S M U 7-6 vs. Army 6-5 (+ Navy Game)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY
3:20 PM ESPN
Syracuse 7-5 vs. Kansas State 7-5
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN
6:40 PM ESPN
Tennessee 6-6 vs. North Carolina 7-5
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA
10:00 PM ESPN
Nebraska 10-3 vs. Washington 6-6
Friday, December 31
Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC
12 Noon ESPN
Clemson 6-6 vs. South Florida 7-5
Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX
2:00 PM CBS
Miami (FL) 7-5 vs. Notre Dame 7-5
Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team
AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN
3:30 PM ESPN
Georgia 6-6 vs. Central Florida 10-3
Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA
7:30 PM ESPN
South Carolina 9-4 vs. Florida State 9-4
Saturday, January 1
Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX
12 Noon ESPN-U
Northwestern 6-6 vs. Texas Tech 7-5
Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL
1:00 PM ABC
Florida 7-5 vs. Penn State 7-5
Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL
1:00 PM ESPN
Michigan State 11-1 vs. Alabama 9-3
Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL
1:30 PM ESPN-2
Michigan 7-5 vs. Mississippi State 8-4
Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA
5:00 PM ESPN
T C U 12-0 vs. Wisconsin 11-1
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ
8:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Connecticut 8-4
Monday, January 3
Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL
8:30 PM ESPN
Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Stanford 11-1
Tuesday, January 4
All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA
8:30 PM ESPN
Arkansas 10-2 vs. Ohio State 11-1
Thursday, January 6
GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL
8:00 PM ESPN
Middle Tennessee State 6-6 vs. Miami (OH) 9-4
Friday, January 7
AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX
8:00 PM Fox
Texas A&M 9-3 vs. L S U 10-2
Saturday, January 8
BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL
12 Noon ESPN
Pittsburgh 7-5 vs. Kentucky 6-6
Sunday, January 9
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA
9:00 PM ESPN
Boston College 7-5 vs. Nevada 12-1
Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team
Monday, January 10
National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ
8:30 PM ESPN
Auburn 13-0 vs. Oregon 12-0
Middle Bowl Game Match-ups (12/28-12/31)
Disclaimer: I am giving advice on pointspreads totally as an act of fun. I do not personally wager money on these games, and I do not advocate you doing so either. It’s just a game like Monopoly to me.
I have yet to spend one minute watching or listening to any of the bowls so far, and I must say I’m not regretting it one bit. These bowls are meaningless to me and most of the country, since they don’t contribute to the national title. Looking at traffic to this site, it appears more people are interested in the computer simulated playoffs than the actual bowl breakdowns, so I am going to reduce the coverage of these games.
As I previously stated, if the bowls were used for NCAA playoffs, the Cotton Bowl might have an important quarterfinal round game featuring the eventual National Champion instead of a meaningless game that won’t draw many viewers nor return much bang for their sponsor’s buck. What if LSU and Southern Cal played in the Cotton Bowl instead of Arkansas and Missouri? I dare say FOX Sports would get a much higher rating for the game, and AT&T, as the sponsor, would receive a bigger return on their investment.
Here is a brief breakdown of the second wave of bowls. The one prediction I can make with absolute certitude is that I won’t spend a minute watching or listening to these games. I’ll have been reading an interesting trio of books and listening to shortwave radio over the holidays. One of the books I am currently reading is, The Lincoln Highway: The Great American Road Trip by Michael Wallis and Michael Williamson. If you like traveling old roads that aren’t boring, straight interstate slabs, check out this book as well as Wallis’s and others’ books about Route 66. I have traveled large parts of both highways, and these trips have always been comforting, interesting, and beneficial to many mom and pop businesses that are struggling to survive. One of these days, I am going to drive the entire distance of both highways; maybe start in New York and drive to San Francisco on the Lincoln Highway and then return via Los Angeles to Chicago on Route 66.
Point spreads and totals are those listed as of 11:00 AM ET Thursday, December 27, 2007
Times given are Eastern Standard Tome Zone
Friday, December 28-5:00 PM ESPN
Champs Sports Bowl-Orlando
Boston College 10-3 vs. Michigan State 7-5
Vegas: B.C. by 4
PiRate: Tossup
Mean: B.C. 30 Mich. St. 26
At first look, this appears to be a mismatch, but Boston College limped home in November, while Michigan State was an improving team. Wins over Purdue and Penn State proves the Spartans can compete and even win this game.
Predicted Score: 24-24 going to OT
Friday, December 28-8:00 PM NFL Network
Texas Bowl-Houston
Houston 8-4 vs. T C U 7-5
Vegas: TCU by 6½
PiRate: TCU by 8
Mean: TCU 31 Houston 25
Most people cannot pick up this game up on television, and I’m not sure many outside of the Lone Star State will desire to go to an establishment to tune it in. This old rivalry of former Southwest Conference teams is the microcosm for the current bowl apathy spreading across the nation. Who cares? Maybe by January 5, I will have looked online to see who won this game. Then again, I may not know until next summer when the football preview magazines hit the stands.
Predicted Score: TCU 24 Houston 16
Friday, December 28-8:30 PM ESPN
Emerald Bowl-San Francisco
Maryland 6-6 vs. Oregon State 8-4
Vegas: Oregon State by 5
PiRate: Oregon State by 9
Mean: Oregon State 27 Maryland 22
Maryland must travel from one coast to the other and play a Pac-10 team in Pac-10 territory. That should help Oregon State by a grand total of two points in this game. The Beavers are stronger on both sides of the ball.
Predicted Score: Oregon State 33 Maryland 24
Saturday, December 29-1:00 PM ESPN
Meineke Car Care Bowl-Charlotte, NC
Wake Forest 8-4 vs. Connecticut 9-3
Vegas: Wake Forest by 2½
PiRate: Wake Forest by 8
Mean: Wake Forest 24 Connecticut 24 to OT
Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe didn’t jump ship after being courted by more than one school. His squad should reward him with a bowl win. UConn expected to be playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl, and I don’t think they will put out a great effort in this game.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 27 Connecticut 19
Saturday, December 29-4:30 PM ESPN
Liberty Bowl-Memphis
Mississippi State 7-5 vs. Central Florida 10-3
Vegas: Central Florida by 2½
PiRate: Mississippi St. by 1
Mean: Central Florida 30 Mississippi St. 28
Mississippi State’s defense should be strong enough to hold down the strong UCF ground game, but I expect UCF to pass for more yards than normal. The Bulldogs should match them point-for-point, and this game should go down to the wire.
Predicted Score: Mississippi State 24 Central Florida 23
Saturday, December 29-8:00 PM ESPN
Alamo Bowl-San Antonio
Texas A&M 7-5 vs. Penn State 8-4
Vegas: Penn State by 4½
PiRate: Penn State by 1
Mean: Penn State 29 Texas A&M 24
Both teams have experienced off-the-field problems this year, and both would probably like to just get this game over with as quickly as possible. A&M’s defense has a few holes, and I expect the octogenarian, bespectacled coach to find out how to exploit those liabilities deep in the final stanza. The Lions will meow rather than roar in this one, but it should be enough to escape with a win.
Predicted Score: Penn State 17 Texas A&M 16
Sunday, December 30-8:00 PM ESPN
Independence Bowl-Shrevport, LA
Colorado 6-6 vs. Alabama 6-6
Vegas: Alabama by 3½
PiRate: Alabama by 6
Mean: Alabama 27 Colorado 25
Why does this game even have to be played? If Bear Bryant was still alive and coaching, he would never have accepted this bowl bid. Former Buffalo coach Eddie Crowder may have concurred with the man in the houndstooth hat.
Colorado probably cares more about this game since they were just 2-10 last year, but I think the Tide is clearly more talented. Nick Saban will not let his charges take this game for granted, so I’m, taking the Tide.
Predicted Score: Alabama 27 Colorado 21
Monday, December 31-12:30 PM ESPN
Armed Forces Bowl-Ft. Worth, TX
California 6-6 vs. Air Force 9-3
Vegas: California by 3½
PiRate: Tossup
Mean: Air Force 27 California 26
My gut instinct in this one is that Air Force will win this one in a surprising manner. Cal’s November nosedive doesn’t bode well here. Air Force improved every week, and after a month of practices, the spread option offense should be explosive. The PiRates say Cal will exploit AFA through the air and score just as many points. Look for both teams to top 400 yards.
Predicted Score: Air Force 31 California 31 going to OT
Monday, December 31-2:00 PM CBS
Sun Bowl-El Paso, TX
Oregon 8-4 vs. South Florida 9-3
Vegas: South Florida by 5½
PiRate: South Florida by 4
Mean: South Florida 31 Oregon 29
Here’s another bowl where both teams thought they were headed to BCS Bowls midway through the season. Oregon’s losing Dennis Dixon is comparable to the 1927 Yankees losing Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Earl Combs, and Waite Hoyt. There’s no quack left in the Ducks.
I look for Oregon coach Mike Bellotti to find a way to squeeze out just enough offense to make this game close throughout. Still, I’ll go with the Eastern team in green to win this one.
Predicted Score: South Florida 24 Oregon 20
Monday, December 31-2:00 PM ESPN2
Humanitarian Bowl-Boise, ID
Fresno State 8-4 vs. Georgia Tech 7-5
Vegas: Georgia Tech by 6
PiRate: Georgia Tech by 4
Mean: Georgia Tech 28 Fresno St. 24
What better way to say this game isn’t worth watching than to say the most exciting reason to watch is to see if snow covers the blue field?
Georgia Tech is one of a bevy of schools to dump their coach after having a winning season. If Paul Johnson were already coaching, and the Techsters were already running the triple option, this game might be a little fun. Look for a dull, colorless contest-unless you consider the blue field colorful.
Predicted Score: Georgia Tech 21 Fresno St. 17
Monday, December 31-4:00 PM ESPN
Music City Bowl-Nashville
Florida State 7-5 vs. Kentucky 7-5
Vegas: Kentucky by 10
PiRate: Kentucky by 10
Mean: Kentucky 29 Florida St. 27
(note: Mean cannot factor FSU’s loss of 36 players for this game, but PiRate rating does factor in the personnel loss)
Shame on Florida State! They knew about the cheating problem months ago. They should have removed themselves from bowl contention. This bowl game is ruined now because Kentucky will be playing against a team that cannot even field a two-deep. Even if FSU plays above their head and pulls off a couple of surprise plays, they don’t belong in a bowl. Well, at least all the Kentucky fans who are trying to forget they are a basketball school will paint Nashville blue on New Year’s Eve.
Predicted Score: Kentucky 30 Florida State 20
Monday, December 31-7:30 PM ESPN
Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta
Auburn 8-4 vs. Clemson 9-3
Vegas: Clemson by 3
PiRate: Clemson by 5
Mean: Clemson 25 Auburn 22
This is an old rivalry game. The two schools played each other several times between the 1930’s and early 1970’s. Clemson dominated in the WWII era, and Auburn dominated from there on. This would be a great game if it was played in September, but it doesn’t have much appeal on New Year’s Eve night.
Clemson is one of the best teams not playing in a BCS bowl, and Auburn is inconsistent. Go with the ACC Tigers in this one.
Predicted Score: Clemson 24 Auburn 19
Monday, December 31-5:30 PM NFL Network
Insight Bowl-Phoenix
Indiana 7-5 vs. Oklahoma State 6-6
Vegas: Oklahoma St. by 4
PiRate: Oklahoma St. by 6
Mean: Oklahoma St. 34 Indiana 28
Poor Indiana! They finally earn a bowl bid for the first time in over a dozen years, and nobody will watch them. This New Year’s Eve night game is on the covert NFL Network. The only people watching this game will be folks already loose in bars, and they won’t remember seeing the game.
What I can say about Oklahoma State is that they are coached by a man who is 40 and who can take criticism as well as donations from T. Boone Pickens and Garth Brooks.
Predicted Score: Oklahoma St. 34 Indiana 28
This Week’s “Picks”
It seems to be working every week since I instituted this strategy in mid-November, so I will continue to employ the same formula for picking games during the bowls. So far, these picks are 4-1 against the spread through bowl games of December 26.
Where the PiRates and Mean both fall on the same side of the spread and the difference is more than 2.5 points, that game will be picked against the spread. When they both agree on the winner, and the line is 10 points or less, that game will be picked on the money line. There will be no totals or teasers picked.
Straight Plays Against the Spread
# 1: Air Force +3½ vs. California
Money Line Picks
# 2: TCU -210 vs. Houston
# 3: Oregon State -200 vs. Maryland
# 4: Penn State -205 vs. Texas A&M
# 5: Alabama -155 vs. Colorado
# 6: South Florida -220 vs. Oregon
# 7: Georgia Tech -220 vs. Fresno State
# 8: Clemson -125 vs. Auburn
# 9: Oklahoma State -170 vs. Indiana
Early Bowl Game Match-ups
Disclaimer: I am giving advice on pointspreads totally as an act of fun. I do not personally wager money on these games, and I do not advocate you doing so either. It’s just a game like Monopoly to me.
It’s time for the not-so-exciting bowl season. Over the next two weeks, there will be more than two dozen games that mean little or nothing to all but the fans of the particular schools playing in the games. Because “NCAA playoffs would hurt the bowls,” you get the pleasure (factitiously) of getting Alabama and Colorado face off in a bowl. Neither team has a winning record. The Cotton Bowl, which has seen numerous national champions appear in Dallas over the years, gets a battle of runner-ups who will not matter in the final championship picture. If the bowls were used for the playoffs, the Cotton Bowl might have an important quarterfinal round game featuring the eventual National Champion. What if LSU and Southern Cal played in the Cotton Bowl instead of Arkansas and Missouri? I dare say FOX Sports would get a much higher rating for the game, and AT&T, as the sponsor, would receive a bigger return on their investment.
Here is a breakdown of these early bowls. The one prediction I can make with absolute certitude is that I won’t spend a minute watching or listening to these games. I’ll be reading an interesting trio of books and listening to shortwave radio over the holidays.
Point spreads and totals are those listed as of 10:00 AM ET Monday, December 17, 2007
Times given are Eastern Standard Tome Zone
Thursday, December 20-9:00 PM ESPN
Poinsettia Bowl-San Diego
Utah 8-4 vs. Navy 8-4
Vegas: Utah by 8
PiRate: Utah by 18
Mean: Utah 34 Navy 24
Utah run offense vs. Navy run defense: Utah should be able to run all day against the Midshipmen rush defense. 175-200 yards
Utah pass offense vs. Navy pass defense: Utah should enjoy one of their best if not their best passing games of the season. 65-70% completions for 200-250 yards
Navy run offense vs. Utah run defense: Navy will not rush for their average against the Utes. 250-275 yards
Navy pass offense vs. Utah pass defense: Navy will top 100 yards passing in this game because they will be forced to pass more than they normally do. 50-55% completions for 125-150 yards
Special Teams: Navy has a slight advantage here, but both teams are sound in special teams play.
Intangibles: Navy coach Paul Johnson has fled to Georgia Tech, and this will be the first game for new coach Ken Niumatalolo. Navy must travel more than 2,700 miles across three time zones (not as important during the bowls because they will have time to acclimate to the opposite coast and long flight).
Predicted Score: Utah 35 Navy 17
Friday, December 21-8:00 PM ESPN2
New Orleans Bowl
Memphis 7-5 vs. Florida Atlantic 7-5
Vegas: Florida Atlantic by 3
PiRate: Florida Atlantic by 8
Mean: Florida Atlantic 34 Memphis 29
Memphis run offense vs. FAU run defense: Memphis should have a typical to slightly better than average night running the ball. 150-175 yards
Memphis pass offense vs. FAU pass defense: The Tigers should exceed their average: 55-60% completions for 325 to 350 yards
FAU run offense vs. Memphis run defense: Memphis has trouble stopping the run, and FAU should continue that trend. 150-175 yards
FAU pass offense vs. Memphis pass defense: FAU should enjoy a typical night through the air. 55-60% completions for 275-300 yards
Special Teams: Neither team is special here. The game shouldn’t be decided here unless someone fumbles a return.
Intangibles: Both teams come into this bowl playing their best ball. FAU finished the season on a roll winning four of six including a title-clinching victory at Troy. Memphis won five of their last six games after it appeared as though Coach Tommy West was going to lose his job. Memphis lost at home to Middle Tennessee by two touchdowns, while FAU beat them by 13 points.
Predicted Score: Florida Atlantic 31 Memphis 23
Saturday, December 22-1:00 PM ESPN2
Papa John’s Bowl-Birmingham, AL
Cincinnati 9-3 vs. Southern Mississippi 7-5
Vegas: Cincinnati by 11
PiRate: Cincinnati by 20
Mean: Cincinnati 35 Southern Miss. 19
Cincinnati run offense vs. Southern Miss. run defense: Cincinnati should run for a little less than their average. Southern Miss., while not a great defender against the run should pick up a couple of sacks to lower the rushing total. 125-150 yards
Cincinnati pass offense vs. Southern Miss. pass defense: Cincinnati should top their passing average, possibly by quite a bit. 65-70% completions for 325-350 yards
Southern Miss. run offense vs. Cincinnati run defense: Southern Miss. will finish with fewer than their average rushing yards. Cincinnati will pick up multiple quarterback sacks to further lower this number. 100-125 yards
Southern Miss. pass offense vs. Cincinnati pass defense: Southern Miss should enjoy one of their better passing performances of the season, but they will be forced to pass the ball 5-10 plays more than normal. 55-60% completions for 225-250 yards
Special Teams: Cincinnati has a slight advantage, but Southern Miss. is quite strong in this department. Excellent punt units should force many possessions to begin inside the offensive 20 yard lines.
Intangibles: Southern Miss coach Jeff Bower has been let go, and the Eagles have hired Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Larry Fedora as his replacement. Bower will coach this game. Southern Miss fans have not been buying tickets to this game in large numbers, while Cincinnati is close to selling out their allotment. Expect a Bearcat domination in the stands.
Cincinnati felt it was snubbed by the Meineke Car Care Bowl, and the players could either come out with a chip on their shoulders or not show up ready to play due to indifference. I predict Cinti will be ready to make a statement, and this game will be a mismatch.
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 34 Southern Mississippi 14
Saturday, December 22-4:30 PM ESPN
New Mexico Bowl-Albuquerque
New Mexico 8-4 vs. Nevada 6-6
Vegas: New Mexico by 3
PiRate: New Mexico by 5
Mean: New Mexico 31 Nevada 26
New Mexico run offense vs. Nevada run defense: Nevada has a weak run defense, but New Mexico isn’t the type of team that can exploit that weakness for much. 150-175 yards
New Mexico pass offense vs. Nevada pass defense: Nevada should meet or slightly exceed their average. 60-65% completions for 225-250 yards
Nevada run offense vs. New Mexico run defense: Nevada has one of the better running attacks in the nation, but I expect the Wolfpack to fail to reach their norm in this game. 175-200 yards
Nevada pass offense vs. New Mexico pass defense: Nevada’s pistol offense hasn’t fired as accurately this season as they did in 2005 and 2006. New Mexico has a better than average pass defense. 50-55% completions for 225-250 yards
Special Teams: edge to New Mexico. The Lobos punting game is superior to Nevada on both sides. The difference is enough to move the spread one point in New Mexico’s favor.
Intangibles: New Mexico gets three points for home field advantage. However, New Mexico is 0-5 in bowl games in the last 15 years.
Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a freshman who became the starter in the middle of the season. The extra four weeks of practice should be key in this game, because Kaepernick has the potential to be a better quarterback than Colt Brennan by the time he leaves Reno.
Predicted Score: New Mexico 31 Nevada 26
Saturday, December 22-8:00 PM ESPN
Las Vegas Bowl
U C L A 6-6 vs. Brigham Young 10-2
Vegas: B Y U by 6
PiRate: U C L A by 1
Mean: B Y U 26 UCLA 22
UCLA run offense vs. BYU run defense: UCLA’s running game was better with quarterback Ben Olson in the game, solely because defenses couldn’t bring an extra player to the line of scrimmage. Even with Olson ready for the bowl, the Bruins will find the going tough against BYU’s defense. Throw in a sack or two, and UCLA should have a tough time. 75-100 yards
UCLA pass offense vs. BYU pass defense: If Olson plays the entire game, the Bruins can easily top the passing yardage they produced against BYU in September. If Olson cannot go the distance or plays well below his capacity due to pain, then UCLA could be held down to where they were the first time they played BYU. 55-60% completions for 175-200 yards.
BYU run offense vs. UCLA run defense: BYU had a difficult time moving the ball against the Bruins run defense in the September game. I look for the Cougars to perform more efficiently this time around, but they won’t break loose for a big night. 125-150 yards
BYU pass offense vs. UCLA pass defense: BYU threw it 53 times and picked up 391 passing yards in the earlier game, but I don’t foresee a repeat-mainly due to an improved running performance 55-60% completions for 250-275 yards
Special Teams: UCLA has the advantage here. The Bruins are strong in all special teams play and can create points with these units.
Intangibles: UCLA coach Karl Dorrell was fired and will not coach in the bowl. Interim Coach DeWayne Walker will handle the head coaching duties. Rick Neuheisel, Norm Chow, or someone else could be named head coach before game night, creating diversions amongst the players.
Whenever two college teams play for the second time in the same season, the loser usually finishes with a better score. BYU lost 27-17 in September, so it is highly likely that they will either win or lose by less than 10 points.
BYU finished the season on a nine-game winning streak, whereas UCLA struggled to finish the season. Sometimes, a team that struggled to finish the regular season regroups in the postseason and plays their best game of the year.
Predicted Score: UCLA 24 BYU 23
Sunday, December 23-8:00 PM ESPN
Hawaii Bowl-Honolulu
Boise State 10-2 vs. East Carolina 7-5
Vegas: Boise State by 10½
PiRate: Boise State by 17
Mean: Boise State 37 East Carolina 25
Boise State run offense vs. East Carolina run defense: Ian Johnson will get his yards, but I suspect ECU will hold Boise under their average. 150-175 yards
Boise State pass offense vs. East Carolina pass defense: Taylor Tharp might have the best performance of the bowl season. ECU may not mount much of a threat against the Bronco air game. 65-70% completions for 325-350 yards
East Carolina run offense vs. Boise State run defense: Chris Johnson is one of the best running backs you’ve never heard of, but Boise has a tough run defense. Look for a little less than normal for the Pirates. 150-175 yards
East Carolina pass offense vs. Boise State pass defense: Expect a typical game performance by ECU; neither team is exceptional in this head-to-head battle. 55-60% completions for 200-225 yards
Special Teams: Boise State has a considerable advantage here. With every exchange of punts, BSU should gain close to 10 yards. Five punts by both teams could mean a 50-yard advantage, worth one score.
Intangibles: Boise State will be playing their second consecutive game in Honolulu. The players thought they were going to beat Hawaii and steal their Sugar Bowl bid. Methinks some of the players will not be focused. ECU is happy to be there, and I expect them to perform better than expected. The PiRates officially pick against the Pirates here, but my gut instinct is that ECU will be ready to play and make this game a true battle.
Wednesday, December 26-7:30 PM ESPN
Motor City Bowl-Detroit
Purdue 7-5 vs. Central Michigan 8-5
Vegas: Purdue by 8½
PiRate: Purdue by 5
Mean: Purdue 35 Central Michigan 30
Purdue run offense vs. Central Michigan run defense: Purdue didn’t run the ball with much authority this year, but they should find some success against the Chippewas. 150-175 yards
Purdue pass offense vs. Central Michigan pass defense: Curtis Painter didn’t have a great year, but he should have a decent game in this one. CMU isn’t overly strong against the pass. 55-60% completions for 275-300 yards
Central Michigan run offense vs. Purdue run defense: CMU should find limited success against the Boilermaker run defense. Quarterback Dan Lafevour can gain yards on the ground as well as through the air. 125-150 yards
Central Michigan pass offense vs. Purdue pass defense: I expect Lafevour to have a great game and give his underdog team a chance to win the game. Purdue had trouble several times this year against pedestrian quarterbacks. 60-65% completions for 275-300 yards
Special Teams: Purdue has a considerable advantage here and can change the game on one big play.
Intangibles: Some of Purdue’s players would rather be home for the holidays rather than play in this game. CMU is happy to be here, and they will be out for blood.
There are rumblings in Indiana by Purdue fans who would like to see Coach Joe Tiller replaced. A bad performance in this game, ala Glen Mason’s Minnesota team last year in their bowl, could be the final nail in the coffin.
Predicted Score: Purdue 35 CMU 30
Thursday, December 27-8:00 PM ESPN
Holiday Bowl-San Diego
Arizona State 10-2 vs. Texas 9-3
Vegas: Texas by 2½
PiRate: Arizona State by 2
Mean: Arizona State 30 Texas 27
Arizona State run offense vs. Texas run defense: ASU doesn’t butter its bread with the running attack. Texas’s outstanding run defense will hold the Sun Devils in double digits, but it may not be enough for the ‘Horns to hook’em.
Arizona State pass offense vs. Texas pass defense: If a bowl quarterback finishes with better stats than Boise’s Tharp, it may be ASU’s Rudy Carpenter. I look for Carpenter to shred the Longhorn secondary. 60-65% completions for 300-325 yards
Texas run offense vs. Arizona State run defense: Jamaal Charles may run for 100 yards, but I expect Texas to be held beneath their average in this one. 150-175 yards
Texas pass offense vs. Arizona State pass defense: Colt McCoy should top 200 yards passing in this game, but I think his percentages will be off a little. ASU is decent against the pass. 55-60% completions for 200-225 yards
Special Teams: This is basically a wash, as neither team is a power in the special team’s games.
Intangibles: This is the first bowl game of the season where both teams belong to be in a bowl game. I expect a close, hard-fought game. Neither team has a significant advantage here.
Predicted Score: Arizona State 30 Texas 28
This Week’s “Picks”
It worked the last two weeks of the regular season, so I will continue to employ the same formula for picking games during the bowls. So, where the PiRates and Mean both fall on the same side of the spread and the difference is more than 2.5 points, that game will be picked against the spread. When they both agree on the winner, and the line is 10 points or less, that game will be picked on the money line. There will be no totals or teasers picked.
Straight Plays Against the Spread
# 1: Cincinnati -11 vs. Southern Mississippi
# 2: Arizona State +2½ vs. Texas
Money Line Picks
# 3: Utah -295 vs. Navy
# 4: F A U -140 vs. Memphis
# 5: New Mexico -140 vs. Nevada
# 6: Purdue -310 vs. Central Michigan
# 7: Arizona State +120 vs. Texas
PiRate Rating Picks from this past weekend:
Winners: 8-4 66.7% Season: 490-173 73.9%
Vs. Spread: 7-4-0 63.6% Season: 109-132-3 45.2%
PiRate Top 25-Final Regular Season
|
No. |
Team |
Won |
Lost |
PiRate |
|
1 |
Southern Cal |
10 |
2 |
127 |
|
2 |
Oklahoma |
11 |
2 |
126 |
|
3 |
Florida |
9 |
3 |
126 |
|
4 |
Ohio State |
11 |
1 |
123 |
|
5 |
Virginia Tech |
11 |
2 |
122 |
|
6 |
West Virginia |
10 |
2 |
122 |
|
7 |
L S U |
11 |
2 |
120 |
|
8 |
Missouri |
11 |
2 |
120 |
|
9 |
Kansas |
11 |
1 |
120 |
|
10 |
Georgia |
10 |
2 |
118 |
|
11 |
Arkansas |
8 |
4 |
118 |
|
12 |
Oregon State |
8 |
4 |
117 |
|
13 |
South Florida |
9 |
3 |
117 |
|
14 |
Clemson |
9 |
3 |
116 |
|
15 |
Cincinnati |
9 |
3 |
115 |
|
16 |
Arizona State |
10 |
2 |
114 |
|
17 |
Boise State |
10 |
2 |
114 |
|
18 |
Tennessee |
9 |
4 |
114 |
|
19 |
Utah |
8 |
4 |
113 |
|
20 |
Oregon |
8 |
4 |
113 |
|
21 |
U C L A |
6 |
6 |
113 |
|
22 |
Illinois |
9 |
3 |
112 |
|
23 |
Wisconsin |
9 |
3 |
112 |
|
24 |
Brigham Young |
10 |
2 |
112 |
|
25 |
Texas |
9 |
3 |
112 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
|
Atlantic Coast Conference |
|||||||||
| Atlantic Division |
Conference |
|
Overall |
|
|
||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| Clemson |
5 |
3 |
|
9 |
3 |
410 |
220 |
116 |
|
| Wake Forest |
5 |
3 |
|
8 |
4 |
338 |
279 |
111 |
|
| Boston College |
6 |
2 |
|
10 |
3 |
372 |
264 |
110 |
|
| Maryland |
3 |
5 |
|
6 |
6 |
299 |
259 |
110 |
|
| Florida State |
4 |
4 |
|
7 |
5 |
275 |
263 |
106 |
|
| North Carolina St. |
3 |
5 |
|
5 |
7 |
249 |
339 |
94 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Coastal Division |
Conference |
|
Overall |
|
|
|
|||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| Virginia Tech |
7 |
1 |
|
11 |
2 |
381 |
201 |
122 |
|
| Virginia |
6 |
2 |
|
9 |
3 |
289 |
222 |
109 |
|
| Georgia Tech |
4 |
4 |
|
7 |
5 |
313 |
231 |
104 |
|
| Miami (FL) |
2 |
6 |
|
5 |
7 |
247 |
312 |
98 |
|
| North Carolina |
3 |
5 |
|
4 |
8 |
254 |
294 |
97 |
|
| Duke |
0 |
8 |
|
1 |
11 |
215 |
398 |
86 |
|
|
Big East Conference |
|||||||||
|
Conference |
|
Overall |
|||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won | Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| West Virginia |
5 |
2 |
|
10 |
2 |
467 |
207 |
122 |
|
| South Florida |
4 |
3 |
|
9 |
3 |
430 |
248 |
117 |
|
| Cincinnati |
4 |
3 |
|
9 |
3 |
441 |
223 |
115 |
|
| Rutgers |
3 |
4 |
|
7 |
5 |
374 |
262 |
107 |
|
| Connecticut |
5 |
2 |
|
9 |
3 |
334 |
223 |
105 |
|
| Louisville |
3 |
4 |
|
6 |
6 |
422 |
377 |
105 |
|
| Pittsburgh |
3 |
4 |
|
5 |
7 |
274 |
291 |
105 |
|
| Syracuse |
1 |
6 |
|
2 |
10 |
197 |
418 |
87 |
|
|
Big 10 Conference |
|||||||||
|
Conference |
|
Overall |
|||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| Ohio State |
7 |
1 |
|
11 |
1 |
384 |
128 |
123 |
|
| Illinois |
6 |
2 |
|
9 |
3 |
345 |
234 |
112 |
|
| Wisconsin |
5 |
3 |
|
9 |
3 |
366 |
280 |
112 |
|
| Penn State |
4 |
4 |
|
8 |
4 |
365 |
211 |
111 |
|
| Michigan St. |
3 |
5 |
|
7 |
5 |
409 |
322 |
110 |
|
| Michigan |
6 |
2 |
|
8 |
4 |
313 |
243 |
108 |
|
| Purdue |
3 |
5 |
|
7 |
5 |
395 |
297 |
102 |
|
| Indiana |
3 |
5 |
|
7 |
5 |
389 |
321 |
99 |
|
| Iowa |
4 |
4 |
|
6 |
6 |
222 |
225 |
95 |
|
| Northwestern |
3 |
5 |
|
6 |
6 |
310 |
372 |
93 |
|
| Minnesota |
0 |
8 |
|
1 |
11 |
315 |
440 |
93 |
|
|
Big 12 Conference |
|||||||||
| North Division |
Conference |
Overall |
|
||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
||
| Missouri |
7 |
1 |
11 |
2 |
522 |
319 |
120 |
||
| Kansas |
7 |
1 |
11 |
1 |
532 |
192 |
120 |
||
| Colorado |
4 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
331 |
353 |
101 |
||
| Kansas St. |
3 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
422 |
370 |
100 |
||
| Iowa St. |
2 |
6 |
3 |
9 |
218 |
381 |
95 |
||
| Nebraska |
2 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
401 |
455 |
95 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
| South Division |
Conference |
Overall |
|
||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
||
| Oklahoma |
6 |
2 |
11 |
2 |
564 |
236 |
126 |
||
| Texas |
5 |
3 |
9 |
3 |
432 |
295 |
112 |
||
| Texas Tech |
4 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
501 |
309 |
109 |
||
| Texas A&M |
4 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
346 |
313 |
108 |
||
| Oklahoma St. |
4 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
401 |
351 |
105 |
||
| Baylor |
0 |
8 |
3 |
9 |
218 |
411 |
83 |
||
|
Conference USA |
|||||||||
| East Division |
Conference |
Overall |
|
||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
|
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| Central Fla. |
7 |
1 |
10 |
3 |
499 |
362 |
107 |
||
| East Carolina |
6 |
2 |
7 |
5 |
362 |
357 |
97 |
||
| Southern Miss. |
5 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
330 |
283 |
95 |
||
| Marshall |
3 |
5 |
3 |
9 |
298 |
411 |
89 |
||
| Memphis |
6 |
2 |
7 |
5 |
353 |
375 |
87 |
||
| U A B |
1 |
7 |
2 |
10 |
235 |
421 |
78 |
||
|
|
|
|
|||||||
| West Division |
Conference |
Overall |
|
||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
|
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| Tulsa |
6 |
2 |
9 |
4 |
513 |
458 |
100 |
||
| Houston |
6 |
2 |
8 |
4 |
436 |
359 |
97 |
||
| Tulane |
3 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
293 |
285 |
87 |
||
| Rice |
3 |
5 |
3 |
9 |
374 |
515 |
85 |
||
| S M U |
0 |
8 |
1 |
11 |
340 |
477 |
83 |
||
| U T E P |
2 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
403 |
445 |
82 |
||
|
Independents |
|||||||||
|
Conference |
Overall |
|
|||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
||
| Navy |
X |
X |
8 |
4 |
479 |
438 |
97 |
||
| Notre Dame |
X |
X |
3 |
9 |
197 |
345 |
94 |
||
| Western Ky. |
X |
X |
7 |
5 |
398 |
250 |
78 |
||
| Army |
X |
X |
3 |
9 |
203 |
364 |
77 |
||
|
Mid-American Conference |
||||||||||||
| East Division |
Division |
Conference |
Overall |
|
||||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
||
| Bowling Green |
4 |
2 |
|
6 |
2 |
8 |
4 |
385 |
354 |
96 |
||
| Ohio U |
3 |
3 |
|
4 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
366 |
359 |
89 |
||
| Buffalo |
4 |
2 |
|
5 |
3 |
5 |
7 |
291 |
331 |
86 |
||
| Miami (OH) |
4 |
2 |
|
5 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
260 |
333 |
85 |
||
| Temple |
3 |
3 |
|
4 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
197 |
315 |
85 |
||
| Akron |
2 |
4 |
|
3 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
254 |
350 |
84 |
||
| Kent St. |
1 |
5 |
|
1 |
7 |
3 |
9 |
259 |
350 |
80 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
| West Division |
Division |
|
Conference |
Overall |
|
|
|
|||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
||
| Central Mich. |
4 |
1 |
|
6 |
1 |
8 |
5 |
439 |
466 |
97 |
||
| Western Mich. |
2 |
3 |
|
4 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
323 |
347 |
97 |
||
| Ball St. |
4 |
1 |
|
5 |
2 |
7 |
5 |
379 |
316 |
95 |
||
| Eastern Mich. |
3 |
3 |
|
3 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
290 |
374 |
87 |
||
| Toledo |
2 |
3 |
|
3 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
395 |
470 |
85 |
||
| Northern Illinois |
0 |
5 |
|
1 |
6 |
2 |
10 |
229 |
370 |
79 |
||
|
Mountain West Conference |
|||||||||
|
Conference |
Overall |
|
|||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
||
| Utah |
5 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
306 |
187 |
113 |
||
| Brigham Young |
8 |
0 |
10 |
2 |
374 |
225 |
112 |
||
| T C U |
4 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
319 |
230 |
108 |
||
| Air Force |
6 |
2 |
9 |
3 |
353 |
232 |
106 |
||
| New Mexico |
5 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
298 |
247 |
98 |
||
| Colorado St. |
2 |
6 |
3 |
9 |
304 |
369 |
93 |
||
| San Diego St. |
3 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
301 |
413 |
90 |
||
| Wyoming |
2 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
233 |
311 |
86 |
||
| U N L V |
1 |
7 |
2 |
10 |
218 |
343 |
85 |
||
|
Pacific 10 Conference |
|||||||||
|
Conference |
Overall |
|
|||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
||
| Southern Cal |
7 |
2 |
10 |
2 |
375 |
191 |
127 |
||
| Oregon St. |
6 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
341 |
280 |
117 |
||
| Arizona St. |
7 |
2 |
10 |
2 |
386 |
241 |
114 |
||
| Oregon |
5 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
440 |
286 |
113 |
||
| U C L A |
5 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
276 |
272 |
113 |
||
| Arizona |
4 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
336 |
322 |
112 |
||
| Washington |
2 |
7 |
4 |
9 |
380 |
413 |
107 |
||
| California |
3 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
338 |
313 |
106 |
||
| Washington St. |
3 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
308 |
389 |
104 |
||
| Stanford |
3 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
235 |
339 |
96 |
||
|
Southeastern Conference |
|||||||||
| East Division |
Conference |
|
Overall |
||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| Florida |
5 |
3 |
|
9 |
3 |
|
517 |
290 |
126 |
| Georgia |
6 |
2 |
|
10 |
2 |
|
383 |
252 |
118 |
| Tennessee |
6 |
2 |
|
9 |
4 |
|
434 |
365 |
114 |
| Kentucky |
3 |
5 |
|
7 |
5 |
|
440 |
357 |
110 |
| South Carolina |
3 |
5 |
|
6 |
6 |
|
313 |
282 |
108 |
| Vanderbilt |
2 |
6 |
|
5 |
7 |
|
260 |
271 |
104 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| West Division |
Conference |
|
Overall |
|
|
|
|
||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
|
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
| L S U |
6 |
2 |
|
11 |
2 |
|
503 |
255 |
120 |
| Arkansas |
4 |
4 |
|
8 |
4 |
|
478 |
307 |
118 |
| Auburn |
5 |
3 |
|
8 |
4 |
|
292 |
200 |
111 |
| Mississippi St. |
4 |
4 |
|
7 |
5 |
|
269 |
301 |
106 |
| Alabama |
4 |
4 |
|
6 |
6 |
|
322 |
262 |
105 |
| Ole Miss |
0 |
8 |
|
3 |
9 |
|
241 |
342 |
97 |
|
Sunbelt Conference |
|||||||||
|
Conference |
|
Overall |
|||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| Troy |
6 |
1 |
|
8 |
4 |
408 |
295 |
100 |
|
| Fla. Atlantic |
6 |
1 |
|
7 |
5 |
361 |
405 |
95 |
|
| La.-Monroe |
4 |
3 |
|
6 |
6 |
282 |
332 |
91 |
|
| M T S U |
4 |
3 |
|
5 |
7 |
308 |
339 |
86 |
|
| Arkansas St. |
3 |
4 |
|
5 |
7 |
291 |
331 |
85 |
|
| La.-Lafayette |
3 |
4 |
|
3 |
9 |
285 |
430 |
83 |
|
| Fla. Int’l |
1 |
6 |
|
1 |
11 |
181 |
469 |
73 |
|
| North Texas |
1 |
6 |
|
2 |
10 |
308 |
541 |
72 |
|
|
Western Athletic Conference |
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|||||||
| Team |
Won |
Lost |
|
Won |
Lost |
Pts |
Opp |
Rating |
|
| Boise St. |
7 |
1 |
|
10 |
2 |
515 |
238 |
114 |
|
| Hawaii |
8 |
0 |
|
12 |
0 |
552 |
292 |
111 |
|
| Fresno St. |
6 |
2 |
|
8 |
4 |
387 |
323 |
99 |
|
| Nevada |
3 |
4 |
|
5 |
6 |
386 |
385 |
96 |
|
| San Jose St. |
4 |
4 |
|
5 |
7 |
245 |
352 |
92 |
|
| La. Tech |
4 |
3 |
|
5 |
6 |
239 |
319 |
88 |
|
| Utah St. |
2 |
6 |
|
2 |
10 |
247 |
406 |
84 |
|
| Idaho |
0 |
8 |
|
1 |
11 |
258 |
443 |
79 |
|
| New Mexico St. |
1 |
7 |
|
4 |
9 |
312 |
471 |
78 |
|
The Bowl Schedule
| Date | Time | Bowl | City | Team | Team | Network |
| 12/20 | 9:00 PM | Poinsettia | San Diego | Utah 8-4 | Navy 8-4 | ESPN |
| 12/21 | 8:00 PM | New Orleans | New Orleans | Florida Atlantic 7-5 | Memphis 7-5 | ESPN2 |
| 12/22 | 1:00 PM | Papa John’s | Birmingham | Cincinnati 9-3 | Southern Miss. 7-5 | ESPN2 |
| 12/22 | 4:30 PM | New Mexico | Albuquerque | Nevada 6-6 | New Mexico 8-4 | ESPN |
| 12/22 | 8:00 PM | Las Vegas | Las Vegas | U C L A 6-6 | Brigham Young 10-2 | ESPN |
| 12/23 | 8:00 PM | Hawaii | Honolulu | East Carolina 7-5 | Boise State 10-2 | ESPN |
| 12/26 | 7:30 PM | Motor City | Detroit | Purdue 7-5 | Central Michigan 8-5 | ESPN |
| 12/27 | 8:00 PM | Holiday | San Diego | Texas 9-3 | Arizona St. 10-2 | ESPN |
| 12/28 | 5:00 PM | Champs Sports | Orlando | Boston College 10-3 | Michigan St. 7-5 | ESPN |
| 12/28 | 8:00 PM | Texas | Houston | T C U 7-5 | Houston 8-4 | NFL |
| 12/28 | 8:00 PM | Emerald | San Francisco | Maryland 6-6 | Oregon State 8-4 | ESPN |
| 12/29 | 1:00 PM | Meineke Car Care | Charlotte | Connecticut 9-3 | Wake Forest 8-4 | ESPN |
| 12/29 | 4:30 PM | Liberty | Memphis | Central Florida 10-3 | Mississippi St. 7-5 | ESPN |
| 12/29 | 8:00 PM | Alamo | San Antonio | Penn State 8-4 | Texas A&M 7-5 | ESPN |
| 12/30 | 8:00 PM | Independence | Shrevport | Colorado 6-6 | Alabama 6-6 | ESPN |
| 12/31 | 12:30 PM | Armed Forces | Ft. Worth | California 6-6 | Air Force 9-3 | ESPN |
| 12/31 | 2:00 PM | Sun | El Paso | South Florida 9-3 | Oregon 8-4 | CBS |
| 12/31 | 2:00 PM | Humanitarian | Boise | Georgia Tech 7-5 | Fresno St. 8-4 | ESPN2 |
| 12/31 | 4:00 PM | Music City | Nashville | Florida State 7-5 | Kentucky 7-5 | ESPN |
| 12/31 | 7:30 PM | Chick-fil-A | Atlanta | Clemson 9-3 | Auburn 8-4 | ESPN |
| 12/31 | 8:00 PM | Insight | Tempe | Oklahoma St. 6-6 | Indiana 7-5 | NFL |
| 1/1 | 11:00 AM | Outback | Tampa | Wisconsin 9-3 | Tennessee 9-4 | ESPN |
| 1/1 | 11:30 AM | Cottton | Dallas | Arkansas 8-4 | Missouri 11-2 | FOX |
| 1/1 | 1:00 PM | Capital One | Orlando | Michigan 8-4 | Florida 9-3 | ABC |
| 1/1 | 1:00 PM | Gator | Jacksonville | Texas Tech 8-4 | Virginia 9-3 | CBS |
| 1/1 | 4:30 PM | Rose | Pasadena | Illinois 9-3 | Southern Cal 10-2 | ABC |
| 1/1 | 8:30 PM | Sugar | New Orleans | Hawaii 12-0 | Georgia 10-2 | FOX |
| 1/2 | 8:00 PM | Fiesta | Glendale | West Virginia 10-2 | Oklahoma 11-2 | FOX |
| 1/3 | 8:00 PM | Orange | Miami | Kansas 11-1 | Virginia Tech 11-2 | FOX |
| 1/5 | 12:00 PM | International | Toronto | Rutgers 7-5 | Ball State 7-5 | ESPN2 |
| 1/6 | 8:00 PM | GMAC | Mobile | Tulsa 9-4 | Bowling Green 8-4 | ESPN |
| 1/7 | 8:00 PM | National Title | New Orleans | L S U 11-2 | Ohio State 11-1 | FOX |
Selection Monday: The NCAA Football Computer Simulation Pairings
For all of you who want playoffs in lieu of the BcS joke we have, here is how they would work in the PiRate system.
The PiRate system calls for a 12-team playoff. The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC receive automatic bids. The six highest ranked teams after that, regardless of conference affiliation are then invited as at-large participants.
The four highest ranked automatic qualifiers receive first round byes, while the other eight teams play in the opening round. Bowls are used for all 11 games needed for a 12-team playoff.
Round One is December 8. The Quarterfinals are December 22. The Semifinals are January 1. The Championship Game is January 14.
The Participants
ACC: Virginia Tech 11-2
Big East: West Virginia 10-2
Big 10: Ohio State 11-1
Big 12: Oklahoma 11-2
Pac-10: Southern California 10-2
SEC: L S U 11-2
At-Large: Georgia 10-2
At-Large: Missouri 11-2
At-Large: Kansas 11-1
At-Large: Hawaii 12-0
At-Large: Arizona St. 10-2
At-Large: Florida 9-3
Instead of the argument that LSU edged Georgia due to political factors made by certain network shirts, the argument would be between Florida, Illinois, Boston College, and Clemson. At least these teams know they lost three games and have no right to argue like Georgia has this year.
The brainwashers try to tell the public that a playoff would destroy the bowl. I ask you this: How many bowls this year have any meaning or appeal to anybody other than the fans of the participating teams? Does a bowl pitting a 7-5 team against a 6-6 team attract you to watch? Are you just chomping at the bit to watch the Poinsettia, Armed Forces, Insight, Texas, and Independence Bowls? Other than the LSU-Ohio State game, none of the other bowls matter. Even the historic, Sugar, Cotton, Rose, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls have no bearing on the national championship. There’s no need to watch these games, and when the sponsors of these bowls hear from enough fans who contact them to tell them as much, they will force a playoff.
Under the PiRate system, 11 bowls would play a deciding factor in the NCAA Championship. The remaining bowls that currently have 6-6 and 7-5 teams would now have 8-4 and 9-3 teams instead.
Let’s look at the pairings.
Round One-December 8
Gator Bowl: #5 Georgia vs. #12 Florida
Outback Bowl: #6 Missouri vs. #11 Arizona State
Holiday Bowl: #7 Southern Cal vs. #10 Hawaii
Chick-fil-A Bowl: #8 Kansas vs. #9 West Virginia
Quarterfinals-December 22
Fiesta Bowl: #4 Oklahoma vs. Winner of Gator Bowl
Capital One Bowl: #3 Virginia Tech vs. Winner of Outback Bowl
Cotton Bowl: #2 L S U vs. Winner of Holiday Bowl
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio State vs. Winner of Chick-fil-A Bowl
Semifinals-January 1
Sugar Bowl: Winner of Fiesta Bowl vs. Winner of Rose Bowl
Orange Bowl: Winner of Capital One Bowl vs. Winner of Cotton Bowl
National Championship Game-January 14
New Orleans Winner of Sugar Bowl vs. Winner of Orange Bowl
Check back with the PiRate Ratings for the computer simulation of this championship playoff. I will post scores and statistics for all these games, starting with round one Saturday.
The Pi-Rate Ratings