The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 22, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 23-27, 2021

A Weekend of Despair

We hope you have read numerous times on this site that we do not wager real money on the selections you see here in this weekly feature. We always encourage you to do the same. It is for this reason that we were able to sleep peacefully this week after the incredibly unlucky fortunes that destroyed what could have been a second incredibly successful weekend.

The weekend started out with a nice parlay win as Kansas State beat Nevada and Troy beat Southern Miss. to return a nice $282 on our imaginary $100 wager. The combo parlay with one college game and one pro game was next. Mississippi State had to beat Memphis, and they should have done so. The officials in the game admitted to making a major mistake in the game, and there was a blatant oversight on the same play. Memphis scored the decisive touchdown returning a punt that had already been signaled as dead by the back judge. At the same time, the punt returner wore number four. Nothing wrong with that, but he was not the only number four in the game for the Tigers. Had the mistake not been made, Mississippi State wins the game, and when Denver won the next day, that parlay would have been a winner of $226.42 on the imaginary $100 wagered to guarantee a winning weekend.

On Sunday, Seattle led Tennessee by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and Kansas City led Baltimore by 11 in the fourth quarter. The other parts of the final two parlays had already won. Tennessee scored twice to tie the Seahawks where they went on to win in overtime to kill one parlay, and Baltimore pulled off a minor miracle to beat Kansas City by a point to kill the other one.

Even with the three heartbreakers losing, we are out nothing. No stress means we can return to picking games this week with the same imaginary bank account that never runs out of $100 investment opportunities.

When the opening lines came out, we immediately spotted a huge mistake in one college game. It was the spread in the Georgia-Vanderbilt game, as it opened at 30 1/2 or 31 depending on the books in question. The bookmakers made a big mistake, and within five minutes, that spread had moved to 35. The mistake they made was assuming that Vanderbilt would get about three points for home field advantage. SEC fans and bettors know that Georgia fans will make Vanderbilt Stadium a sea of red. Somewhere either side of 90% will be rooting for the Bulldogs, making this a home game on their opponent’s field. Vanderbilt’s quarterbacks will have to use hand signals on their home field. Georgia is really the home team, and poof, the line may still be low at 35. We don’t issue straight wagers against the line these days. But, we came oh so close to issuing a special bulletin Sunday night when we saw that incredibly low number.

We spent a couple hours looking over the money lines this week looking for certain in-house data to come up with the games we wanted to play. This was a difficult week, because we didn’t particularly like the schedule in either college or pro football. In the end, in order to get our parlays up above +120, we had to go with multiple very long shot combinations at very large odds.

We are going with five selections this week, one of which is not a parlay, but just one single upset pick. Three of our parlays include three games each; we prefer to play two-game parlays, especially when using NFL teams, where it is hard to pick the winners of three games all that often. So, when you look at these picks below, realize they are long shots. Please don’t wager real money on these games unless you have other research data that our selections merely verify.

This Week’s Parlays

Date:Sept 23-27
Odds:+205
Must WinOpponent
Kansas St.Oklahoma St.

Odds:+259.50
Must WinOpponent
Eastern MichiganTexas St.
Michigan St.Nebraska
MemphisUTSA

Odds:+217.69
Must WinOpponent
Michigan St.Nebraska
Boston CollegeMissouri

Odds:+157.86
Must WinOpponent
CarolinaHouston
Kansas CityLA Chargers
Las VegasMiami

Odds:+208.86
Must WinOpponent
ArizonaJacksonville
BuffaloWashington
SeattleMinnesota

September 15, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 16-20, 2021

After a swing and a miss on opening week of the football season, last week we went two for two with big wins. Not only did we win both of our Money Line Parlays, we mentioned a first week NFL system that has worked well over the course of a couple of decades. We told you that even though we are only issuing Money Line Parlays this year, that playing the NFL underdogs of 1/2 to 3 points in Week 1 was a winning proposition. There were seven such underdogs last week, and playing them and the points went 5-2.

For the year, our pretend bank account has wagered pretend money on four games, $400 at $100 per wager, and we have received $604.56 in return from the pretend book. That’s a return on investment of 51.14%.

Now, the pressure is on to keep that profit and not give it back to the imaginary book. We begin including NFL games this week, and we have chosen four different parlays, each with more than +120 odds. Additionally, we are doing something we have only done three or four times in the last decade–combine a college game and NFL game into a parlay. We are number’s enthusiasts here on the PiRate ship, so sometimes we are left with orphan numbers needing to go to a matchmaking service. Combining college and pro football games into a hopeful match is rare for us, but there is no real reason not to do it. We just like to know at 1 AM on Sundays whether we won or not.

Enjoy these four parlays, but remember that these are for entertainment purposes only. We strongly urge you not to wager real money on these picks unless you have done your own research, and this feature merely verifies your own findings.

This Week’s Money Line Parlays

Date:
Sept 16-20

Odds:

+182
Must WinOpponent
Kansas St.Nevada
TroySouthern Miss.

Odds:+126.42
Must WinOpponent
Mississippi St.Memphis
DenverJacksonville

Odds:+140.08
Must WinOpponent
LA RamsIndianapolis
Kansas CityBaltimore

Odds:+127.91
Must WinOpponent
ArizonaMinnesota
SeattleTennessee

September 1, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 1-6, 2021

Last week, we explained what our PiRate Picks are all about. We even gave you a sample Money Line Parlay that included Illinois beating Nebraska, UTEP beating New Mexico St., and UCLA beating Hawaii. This parlay had payout odds of +341, which meant if you wagered $100, and the teams all won, you would receive $441 in return. But, we made sure you understood that this was a sample and not official.

As of Monday afternoon, three people had notified us that they had played a little real currency on this parlay and were quite happy with their return.

How many times can we state this? Please do not bet real money on our just for fun selections! Okay, so one of you wagered $20, one of you wagered $50, and one of you wagered $100 on this parlay and won money. These same people could just as easily have lost this wager, and there is no guarantee that this week’s two selections have a snowball’s chance in Hades of winning.

We strongly urge you to look at these selections as mathematical entertainment and nothing else. If you are going to wager real money on sports, please do your research. Don’t rely on this site as your substitute for research. We use mathematical factors and not actual research to make these selections.

That said, we have two actual Money Line parlays this week, involving five games. If you did not read last week’s tutorial, or if you are a long-time follower of this site and need a refresher course, our expertise is the Money Line Parlay. The Money Line is a number, plus or minus. If the number is a minus, then you must wager this number of dollars against the book’s offering $100. So, a -145 means you the bettor must put up $145 to win $100 from the book. If you bet $145 on this game and won, you would receive $245 from the book ($100 + your investment money). If the number is positive, for every $100 you wager, the book offers the amount of the the positive numbers in dollars. So, a +170 means that if you wager $100 and win, the book will give you $270 ($170 + your investment).

When you wager on the money line, all that matters is that your selection wins. They can win by one point or 100 points; it doesn’t make a difference.

Obviously, if you want to wager on Alabama against Louisiana-Monroe, expect the Money Line to be about -100,000. You would have to wager $100,000 to win $100. If you wagered $100 on this parlay, when Alabama wins, you would receive one dime in profit, and the book would possibly not accept this one wager.

Obviously, it is much easier to bet a favorite to win, but you will receive less than even money odds. A -240 favorite equates to the team having a 70% chance of winning the game. If you believe that team has a better than 70% chance of winning, it might be worth your while to wager on it. If you win 75% of the time you wager on a -240 money line, you will turn a small profit.

The problem with wagering on favorites is that it is quite difficult to maintain the percentage needed to make a profit. Betting on 20 different teams at -240 and winning 13 of 20 means a loss of $380.

If you wager on a bunch of underdogs, there is also little chance that in the long run you will come out ahead. The answer to this is to bundle a group of favorites into a parlay that returns better than even money odds. For our purposes, we look for parlays of +120 and higher. At +150, we break even if the teams we wager on to win all win more than 40% of the time. At +200, if the parlay has a better than 33.3% chance on winning, we turn a profit.

It looks easy. Try it yourself without wagering. Look at the Money Line odds and make a parlay. There are free parlay calculators online to show you your odds. Try it with 10 parlays and see if you can win enough to make it work. You will find that the books know what they are doing. They build billion dollar mega-structures in the desert, because they know how to vacuum your money into their accounts.

Here are our two selections for Week 1 of the College Football Season. Remember, these are just for fun. We have a bottomless pretend bank account to repeatedly wager $100 on every selection.

Odds:+125
Must WinOpponent
Central FloridaBoise St.
DukeCharlotte


Odds:+265.98
Must WinOpponent
North CarolinaVirginia Tech
Kansas St.Stanford
PurdueOregon St.

September 27, 2019

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last Friday, we issued a special Money Line Parlay play that went off at +250, and it won.  We had help getting the five winning teams at relatively low odds together.  But, it was up to us to put the parlay together, as none of the “Sharps” that tutored us on how to play smarter actually ended up with this parlay (until one person saw it on this site and did play a small wager on it.

This week, we are swimming in the deep end without the swim instructors.  Can we find another rare gem with a big payout?  We doubt it, but here goes any way.

Remember, the members of the PiRate Ratings NEVER wager money on the picks we issue; actually, we just don’t wager at all, and if you are planning to wager real money, please do not do so based on what you read here.

Even the top Sharps that are now teaching us more about what we have been doing wrong in recent years only win about 62 to 65% of their wagers, and they wager 10-20 games a week.  If you took their advice but only chose a couple of their wagers, the chances that you’d win big would be minimal, because they have to play double digit games a week to avoid risk and let the law of averages tilt to their side.

Since only about 1% of those that wager regularly are profitable, and since 99% of these winners wouldn’t think of giving you advice, realize that practically every service out there that is marketing their talents to you are profiting off your money and not their wagers.  If they were really successful players, they would never offer their advice to the public.  They’d keep it to themselves and selfishly continue to win.

Now that you know that we are giving you these picks, you should understand these two things.

  1. We are not part of the 1% of Sharps that enjoy 6-figure and 7-figure annual careers, as we do not wager one cent.

  2. Our selections provided to you for free are worth exactly what you paid for it.  If we really knew what we were doing, then we might be in Las Vegas with some of our friends placing wagers and never telling anybody else what we selected.

 

This week’s theme is trying to find incredible value betting a parlay of underdogs.  We looked at all the college games this week and isolated on five teams we believe stand decent chances to win outright as underdogs.  

We actually issued individual Money Line selections on each of these five teams in individual plays, because we feel like three of these teams should pull the actual upset.

The five games where we have studied the personnel groupings and looked for extras like teams playing a sandwich game between two more important games involve these games.

 

Marshall over Cincinnati

Duke over Virginia Tech

Kansas State over Oklahoma State

Baylor over Iowa State

North Carolina State over Florida State.

 

You can play each of these game as singular money line plays and get better than +120 odds on each team.

At the time of this writing, you can get Duke at +125 at a couple of the big books in Nevada.  You can get North Carolina State at +210.  Both Marshall and Kansas State can be found at +165.  Baylor can be wagered at +130.

What if you began combining these teams into 2 or 3 game parlays?  The potential odds are incredible.  Yes, the potential for winning is minimal, but for a little pretend money, you could make a pretend killing if you pick the right 2 or 3 teams.

There’s the rub.  If you play all five teams as single money line upset choices, you stand a decent chance of making a minor imaginary profit.  But, if just one of the potential big payout parlays pays off, you could make five times what you put in.

Let’s look at some examples.  We can’t list them all, as there are too many combinations.

 

 

2-Game Parlays

Marshall over Cincinnati and Duke over Virginia Tech: +485

Marshall over Cincinnati and Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: +496

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St. & North Carolina St. over Florida St.: +722

 

 

3-Game Parlays

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St., Baylor over Iowa St., & NC ST. over Florida St.: +1790

Marshall, Kansas St., and North Carolina St. all in upset wins: +2036

Have fun making combinations of these games.  Here’s the complete crazy parlay where you combine all five of these teams.

If you bet Marshall, Kansas St., North Carolina St., Baylor, and Duke all to win in upsets, the money line parlay payout would be:

 

+10953

Yes, if you were crazy enough to put $100 in Nevada on these five teams to win in upset games, and all five pulled off their upsets, you would cash a winning ticket of $11,053!

If you only put $10 on this parlay, you could cash $1,105.

If you just put that same dollar you use playing Mega Millions, and it won, you’d pocket more than $110, and your chances to win on this parlay are multitudes better than winning the lottery.

—————————————————————————————————————————————-

Did you hear about the guy that bet 89 cents on a ton of games last week on a parlay, and won every game heading into Monday Night Football.  Had the Washington Redskins won that final bet for him, he would have taken that 89 cents and cashed in a half million dollars!

When the Bears won the game, the naive media announced that the poor sap lost.  Without knowing for sure, we bet that this guy won big, maybe even 6-figures.

The media is never the best place to receive information on anything.  In this case, we are confident that the bettor hedged his wager on Monday morning.  Obviously, he probably didn’t have $100,000 to invest on the MNF game, but he probably found a willing money lender to purchase that ticket for 100 grand.

If you had $100,000, and you bought that ticket, then the guy that spent 89 cents just won $99,999.19 on his wager, and he leaves quite happy as a big winner, at least until he realizes his tax bracket just went way up.

The person that bought that potential half-million dollar ticket then played as many different tickets he needed on Monday afternoon until he had $200,000 in wagers on the Bears.  It would have taken him going to multiple books, but it is easily done.

Let’s look at the money lender on Monday afternoon.

  1. $100,000 spent buying the ticket

  2. $200,000 spent buying tickets on the Bears.

If the Redskins had won the last game on that parlay, the lender collects the half million dollar payout and profits by $200,000 since he invested $300,000.

If the Bears had won (which they did), then the half-million dollar parlay is trashed, but the lender cashes in a winning ticket on his Bears bet and receives $400,000.  The profit is only $100,000 in this case.

Technically, the lender could have places additional bets on the Redskins, which would have brought his guaranteed payout to around $135,000 no matter what the outcome, but we just wanted to show you an example in hedging to get a guaranteed win.

If you had a 50% chance of realizing a 33% of 67% return on your investment in 24 hours, you are guaranteeing yourself an average ROI of 50% in one day!  Now, how many of you with some seed money are planning to relocate to Nevada and do some hedge playing?  Alas, we here are more like the 89 cent investor.

March 22, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 22, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Cincinnati

110.8

1.5

Iowa

111.1

1.2

Ole Miss

110.3

0.0

Oklahoma

110.7

-0.4

Texas Tech

117.8

0.0

Northern Kentucky

104.5

13.3

Kansas St.

112.7

0.0

UC-Irvine

106.2

6.5

Tennessee

118.3

0.0

Colgate

102.8

15.5

Gardner-Webb

99.5

1.0

Virginia

121.1

-20.6

Buffalo

115.0

0.0

Arizona St.

107.9

7.1

Wisconsin

115.1

0.0

Oregon

109.7

5.4

Utah St.

111.3

0.0

Washington

108.8

2.5

Duke

123.1

0.0

North Dakota St.

97.9

25.2

Houston

114.8

0.0

Georgia St.

103.9

10.9

Mississippi St.

113.9

0.0

Liberty

106.7

7.2

North Carolina

121.7

0.0

Iona

97.8

23.9

Virginia Commonwealth

110.7

0.0

Central Florida

109.4

1.3

Iowa St.

114.8

0.0

Ohio St.

109.9

4.9

Virginia Tech

115.5

0.0

Saint Louis

104.1

11.4

 

Today’s Schedule

All Times EDT

TIME

MATCHUP

NETWORK

SITE

12:15 PM

(10) Iowa vs. (7) Cincinnati

CBS

Columbus 

12:40 PM

(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Ole Miss

truTV

Columbia 

1:30 PM

(14) Northern Kentucky vs. (3) Texas Tech

TNT

Tulsa 

2 PM

(13) UC Irvine vs. (4) Kansas State

TBS

San Jose 

Approx. 3 PM

(15) Colgate vs. (2) Tennessee

CBS

Columbus 

Approx. 3:25 PM

(16) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) Virginia

truTV

Columbia 

Approx. 4:15 PM

(11) St. John’s / Arizona State vs. (6) Buffalo

TNT

Tulsa 

Approx. 4:45 PM

(12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin

TBS

San Jose 

6:50 PM

(9) Washington vs. (8) Utah State

TNT

Columbus 

7:10 PM

(16) NC Central / North Dakota St. vs. (1) Duke

CBS

Columbia 

7:20 PM

(14) Georgia State vs. (3) Houston

TBS

Tulsa 

7:27 PM

(12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State

truTV

San Jose 

Approx. 9:35 PM

(16) Iona vs. (1) North Carolina

TNT

Columbus 

Approx. 9:55 PM

(9) UCF vs. (8) VCU

CBS

Columbia 

Approx. 10:05 PM

(11) Ohio State vs. (6) Iowa State

TBS

Tulsa

Approx. 10:12 PM

(13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech

truTV

San Jose 

 

 

 

March 24, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Games of Sat-Sun, March 24-25

Elite 8 Round

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Kansas St. Loyola-IL -0.1
Michigan Florida St. 3.0
Villanova Texas Tech 6.9
Kansas Duke -4.1

Elite 8 TV Schedule

Saturday, Mar 24, 2018
Time (EDT) Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
6:09 PM 9 Kansas St. 11 Loyola (Chi.) Atlanta TBS
8:49 PM 3 Michigan 9 Florida St. Los Angeles TBS
         
Sunday, Mar 25, 2018
Time (EDT) Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
2:20 PM 1 Villanova 3 Texas Tech Boston CBS
5:05 PM 1 Kansas 2 Duke Omaha CBS

Elite 8 Criteria Preview

Cinderella still remains in this tournament, even when there are just eight teams remaining.  Actually, there are two Cinderellas remaining, and one of them is now guaranteed to make the Final Four, as the two face off in Atlanta this evening.

The ninth-seeded Kansas State Wildcats keep defying the odds of 50+ years of past NCAA Tournament results.  Teams with terrible rebounding margins (Kansas State’s is -3.17 and with an R+T Rating [(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T,  where R is rebounding margin, S is steals per game, and T is turnover margin] just barely above zero just don’t dance this far into the marathon.

Loyola is bucking the trend only minimally.  While they participate in one of the top 12 conferences, thus a Power Conference, the Ramblers’ overall strength of schedule is below the par of Final Four teams.  Even past Final Four Cinderellas like Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, and George Mason had higher strengths of schedule, and former Missouri Valley Conference Final Four member Wichita State had a considerably higher strength of schedule when the Shockers made the national semifinals.

Florida State has tried on that slipper, but it is a tight fit.  The Seminoles are also a ninth seed, but it looks like the ACC teams were seeded a spot or two low this year.  The Seminoles have a brief history in the Final Four, getting to the title game, where they gave one of the best teams ever a real shock in the final, before losing to UCLA by five.  That was a Bruin team that outscored its opponents by a record 30+ points per game.

The Sunday schedule looks sane compared to the Saturday schedule.  Of the four teams playing on Sunday, the PiRate Rating Criteria correctly predicted three of the four to make it this far, and who knows what might have happened had Purdue’s Isaac Haas been able to play–it could have been a perfect four for four.

Nevertheless, Texas Tech is no slouch.  The Red Raiders play a difficult style of ball that is tough to match up against.  Coach Chris Beard takes from his past mentors, having been an assistant to Coach Bob Knight and Coach Tom Penders.  The Red Raiders play intelligently, and while they don’t run up and down the floor, they find ways to get open shots and to keep the opponent from getting too many on their side of the floor.

Villanova looks to be just as strong as the 2016 team that won the tournament.  The Wildcats have defeated teams playing different styles of ball, and they appear to be the most prepared to face whatever comes their way.  Looking at the criteria stats, there are three teams that we consider “complete teams,” in that they enjoy positive rebounding margins, turnover margins, average scoring margins, and they average more than 6 steals per game while giving up less than 6 steals per game.  Villanova is one of those three teams, and the Wildcats look to be the most complete of the three.

The Duke-Kansas match is the only one that the seed line got correct.  It is the only Elite 8 game that the PiRate Criteria also got correct.  The winner of this game will be crowned as the favorite to win it all, but if Villanova is there, it will set up a fantastic semifinal match, where the other side of the bracket will be overlooked.

Here are the Criteria Stats for the eight teams

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Duke Y 29-7 84-69 9.72 21.2 60.69
Florida St. Y 23-11 81-73 4.42 10.3 59.07
Kansas Y 30-7 81-71 8.26 5.3 61.50
Kansas St. Y 25-11 71-67 3.54 0.7 59.38
Loyola (Chi.) Y 31-5 72-62 9.80 6.8 51.89
Michigan Y 31-7 75-63 5.93 9.8 59.74
Texas Tech Y 27-9 75-65 5.13 14.5 60.35
Villanova Y 33-4 87-71 10.44 12.3 60.56

 

Here are the Detailed Criteria Matchups for the teams

Kansas St.  vs.  Loyola of Chicago

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Kansas St. Y 25-11 71-67 3.54 0.7 59.38
Loyola (Chi.) Y 31-5 72-62 9.80 6.8 51.89
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Kansas St. -3.17 7.94 5.75 2.78 56.4 52.9
Loyola (Chi.) 1.67 6.50 6.53 0.75 60.2 50.4

This is an interesting game, because history shows Kansas St. with criteria like this should come around as often as Halley’s Comet, while Loyola has a criteria that looks more like a Sweet 16 at best team.

Looking at the head-to-head stats, Loyola is superior in more of the key stats, but Kansas State has the big schedule strength advantage.  The outcome of this game will come down to whether the Wildcats can force the Ramblers into turnovers that they have not been committing so far in the Dance.  Loyola is playing confidently, and they have not been affected by the bright lights.  Assistant Coach Sister Jean may be the reason for that.

We don’t want to sound like a broken record, but our criteria will not allow us to pick a team with an R+T Rating barely above 0.  Kansas State cannot continue to get out-rebounded by large amounts (double digits against Kentucky) and rely on steals and three-point shots to win.  It might work two or three times, but asking to make the Final Four without being able to rebound or really shoot well is asking way too much.   They have a puncher’s chance to win this game and become the weakest rebounding team in Final Four history, but we are going to favor the team that is closer to complete.

PiRate Pick: LOYOLA of CHICAGO

 

Michigan vs.  Florida St.

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Michigan Y 31-7 75-63 5.93 9.8 59.74
Florida St. Y 23-11 81-73 4.42 10.3 59.07
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Michigan 0.58 6.29 4.11 3.63 57.0 51.0
Florida St. 2.71 6.91 5.82 1.26 56.4 52.0

This looks like a complete toss-up game according to the statistics.  Both teams have favorable scoring margins, although Michigan’s is a bit better.  Both teams have decent true shooting percentage margins, R+T ratings, and Strengths of Schedule.  Florida State has the rebounding edge, but Michigan gets the turnover margin edge.

There is one secondary edge that the Wolverines have that the Seminoles lack.  The Maize and Blue have won 12 games in a row, and in that time, their rebounding has made a major leap forward.

PiRate Pick: MICHIGAN

 

Villanova vs. Texas Tech

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Villanova Y 33-4 87-71 10.44 12.3 60.56
Texas Tech Y 27-9 75-65 5.13 14.5 60.35
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Villanova 2.70 6.62 4.81 2.38 62.5 52.1
Texas Tech 4.11 7.19 5.94 2.67 55.8 50.7

Texas Tech has done an admirable job to get this far, and they will not go down without a fight, but their opponent has the criteria look of a Final Four team.  In fact, of the eight remaining teams, Villanova’s criteria best fits that of a Final Four team.

The Wildcats may eventually meet a team that is too strong on the boards for them to dominate on the scoreboard, but Texas Tech is most likely not that team.  The Red Raiders might win the rebounding numbers by a little, but we don’t think they can clean the glass, which is what it is going to take to stop VU.

PiRate Pick: VILLANOVA

 

Kansas  vs.  Duke

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Kansas Y 30-7 81-71 8.26 5.3 61.50
Duke Y 29-7 84-69 9.72 21.2 60.69
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Kansas 0.05 6.59 5.51 1.38 59.7 51.4
Duke 8.80 7.39 5.69 -0.39 58.8 49.1

What looks like the game of the Elite 8 Round may be exactly what has been advertised.  This should be an interesting game, because both teams have small Achilles’ Heels that a genius coaching staff and highly-skilled players can exploit.  Both teams have genius coaching staffs and highly-skilled players.

The glaring difference in this game is that Kansas’s liability is Duke’s biggest asset, whereas Duke’s liability is only a minor asset for KU.

PiRate Pick: DUKE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 22, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Games of Thursday, March 22

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Nevada Loyola (IL) 2.7
Michigan Texas A&M 2.5
Kentucky Kansas St. 4.4
Gonzaga Florida St. 5.0

Thursday Night’s TV Schedule

Thursday, Mar 22, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
7:07 PM 7 Nevada 11 Loyola (Chi.) Atlanta CBS
7:37 PM 3 Michigan 7 Texas A&M Los Angeles TBS
9:37 PM 5 Kentucky 9 Kansas St. Atlanta CBS
10:07 PM 4 Gonzaga 9 Florida St. Los Angeles TBS

We’ve All Busted

What a year to debut a new bracket-picking trial!  How can we tell if this criteria has any credibility when nobody in the world can show any formula or any human picking ability that would have worked in the first two rounds.

Tonight, there will be no one-seeds or two-seeds playing.  Michigan is the only three-seed playing tonight.  Instead, we will see a seven, two nines, and an 11-seed in action.  Then, on Saturday either Nevada or Loyola will be playing for a spot in the Final Four.

Things will get a tad less crazy tomorrow night when two ones and two twos play, but in only one case is a Sweet 16 game going to have the two teams the seeding process believed should be there.

All is not lost.  We still have three of our four predicted Final Four teams alive, including the team we believe would win the National Championship.

Here is a look at the PiRate Ratings 2018 Criteria for the Sweet 16.

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Clemson Y 25-9 74-66 6.68 7.9 59.83
Duke Y 28-7 85-69 10.11 21.7 60.69
Florida St. Y 22-11 81-74 4.18 10.6 58.79
Gonzaga Y 32-4 84-68 9.37 22.6 53.89
Kansas Y 29-7 81-71 8.34 5.4 61.30
Kansas St. Y 24-11 72-67 3.69 0.9 59.08
Kentucky Y 26-10 77-71 5.38 12.3 60.66
Loyola (Chi.) Y 30-5 72-62 9.82 6.7 51.44
Michigan Y 30-7 74-63 5.43 10.0 59.52
Nevada Y 29-7 83-73 5.97 6.4 55.05
Purdue Y 30-6 81-65 11.43 10.5 59.31
Syracuse Y 22-13 67-64 1.55 11.3 58.92
Texas A&M Y 22-12 75-70 4.73 12.9 61.02
Texas Tech Y 26-9 75-65 5.15 14.5 59.89
Villanova Y 32-4 88-76 10.18 13.1 60.33
West Virginia Y 26-10 80-69 0.66 16.9 60.59

Immediately, we can see one very consistent pattern here.  All of the Sweet 16 teams come from what we call the “Power Conferences.”  A Power Conference is one in which the overall league RPI is one of the top 12.  The Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and West Coast Conferences rank in the top 12, so really, there are no completely surprise teams.  We just failed to hit on these regular season champions of these leagues.  We may have to add a caveat in the future that when the regular season champion of one of these leagues makes the tournament to watch out for them as an underdog, because in most cases, they have been seeded incorrectly.

Loyola, Nevada, and Gonzaga did not look like they were fluke wins in the two rounds.  Loyola’s defense and intelligent half-court offense looked a lot like Butler during their back-to-back runs to the Final Four.  Gonzaga should be no surprise by now.  They are to this generation what UNLV and Marquette were to the 1970’s.  Nevada should have been no surprise, as we have only lauded Coach Eric Musselman as the best men’s basketball coach since about December of 2016.  How he orchestrated a couple of wins this past weekend with a six-man roster is incredible, and he did it against Cincinnati with multiple players in early foul trouble.  We hear that he is on the radar for other jobs that could bring him quite a jump in salary, but we believe that he is more likely to return to the NBA before taking another college position.

Looking at the data above, 15 of the 16 teams look like they belong in the Sweet 16.  Kansas State is the lone outlier, but look at how they got here from the previous round.  They became the first team ever to face a 16-seed in the Round of 32, and the Wildcats almost didn’t beat UMBC.

We have delayed this report where we preview all eight games in the Sweet 16, as we feverishly try to discover if certain injured players will be able to contribute in any way.  Tops on that list is Purdue’s Isaac Haas.  Who says that sports cannot expand the minds of our youth today?  The entire Purdue University Engineering department, professors and students, have been hard at work trying to create an NCAA-approved sleeve to protect Hass’s shattered elbow, and they have a deadline fast approaching.  It isn’t exactly finding a way to bring home Apollo 13, but it’s still an honorable task that could help dozens of Millenials develop some confidence and resume-building gold.

Kentucky’s Jarred Vanderbilt could conceivably play a few minutes here and there tonight against Kansas St., but it is more likely that he will be held out in order to possibly contribute a little more if the Wildcats make it to the Elite 8.

Then, there is Nevada.  How does a team get outrebounded by 15 boards, force just seven turnovers, and make just six, 3-pointers and win a Round of 32 game?  How does this same team get behind by 22 points, see three players on a roster of just six get in early foul trouble, and still come from behind to beat a top 10 team?

Maybe Mariah Musselman is just as powerful as Sister Jean.  Of course, one of these two will see the magic come to an end tonight.  This will be a game that looks more like a chess match between two geniuses than a racehorse up and down affair.  It should be tense for 40 minutes.

Out in Los Angeles, the Michigan-Texas A&M game is intriguing.  Michigan’s new inside presence on both sides of the floor has made the Wolverines better able to face the power teams, while their outside game is still strong.  Can the Aggies use a little superior quickness in this game to lead to a repeat performance of their Round of 32 dismantling of the Tar Heels?  Michigan’s defense will be a tad more difficult to solve than North Carolina’s, and this game should be exciting to the final few possessions.

On paper, the final game of the night looks like a potential mismatch, but in this wacky season, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if the underdog wins.

It’s time to preview all eight Sweet 16 games.  We will talk more about Friday’s games on Friday morning.

Nevada vs. Loyola (Chi.)

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Nevada Y 29-7 83-73 5.97 6.4 55.05
Loyola (Chi.) Y 30-5 72-62 9.82 6.7 51.44
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Nevada -0.64 6.11 4.42 3.08 58.4 52.4
Loyola (Chi.) 1.49 6.51 6.43 0.94 60.2 50.4

Loyola does not force turnovers, but the Ramblers also do not commit many.  While being a decent rebounding team, they do not control the boards, which is Nevada’s Kryptonite.  So, neither team will really exploit the other’s weakness.This is an excellent chess game according to the criteria results.  Nevada needs to force turnovers or at least commit very few to be successful.  They beat Cincinnati by committing just two turnovers in the entire game in Nashville!

Looking at true shooting percentage margin and schedule strength, once again, these two factors cancel out each other.

It comes down to which team can handle a little adversity early in the second half and then make maybe one run.  Think of a classic horse race, where you have a bunch of horses that come from just off the pace and have one run in them.  Which horse will get the perfect trip and be in position to cross the line first?

We admit that we have no sure statistic to look at and say that our choice is solid.  Nevada surely cannot keep playing a rotation of six players and not suffer fatigue.  Loyola cannot expect to keep winning without being able to score a bevy of cheap baskets as the competition gets tougher by the round.

We are going to go with the PiRate Ratings chalk in this one, since we have no other data to rely on to make this pick.  The PiRate Ratings favors the Wolf Pack by 2.7 points, so our pick is: NEVADA

 

Michigan vs. Texas A&M

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Michigan Y 30-7 74-63 5.43 10.0 59.52
Texas A&M Y 22-12 75-70 4.73 12.9 61.02
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Michigan 0.73 6.14 4.11 3.54 56.5 51.1
Texas A&M 6.56 5.50 6.35 -2.65 53.9 49.2

We could almost copy and paste the information from the prior game into this section and just change the names.  Once again, we have a team (Michigan) that is excellent in turnover margin against a top-flight schedule, but that has at times been exploited on the boards, while Texas A&M dominates on the glass but suffers in turnover margin against a slightly stronger schedule.  The teams are about equal in true shooting percentage margin, with the exception that the Wolverine’s advantage tilts a little more toward superior offense, while the Aggies’ advantage tilts a little more toward superior defense.

We are going to make an unscientific assumption about this game, so please feel free to consider it a load of hooey.  We have looked through our mother of pearl shells and think we foresee a tense start of this game, where the team that can get in trouble with turnover margin will be a bit tight, and the Aggies will either turn the ball over a bit too much in the first half or play not to make mistakes and then shoot much lower than their normal percentage, even missing some close-in shots that they hardly ever miss.

Thus,  our wacky belief is that Michigan will get the early lead and then fight the rest of the night to keep it, once A&M starts to lose the tension.  We’ll go with Coach John Beilein to guide the Maize and Blue back to another Elite 8 appearance.  Our Pick: MICHIGAN

 

Kentucky vs. Kansas St.

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Kentucky Y 26-10 77-71 5.38 12.3 60.66
Kansas St. Y 24-11 72-67 3.69 0.9 59.08
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Kentucky 5.06 5.64 5.56 -1.08 55.7 50.3
Kansas St. -3.00 7.86 5.77 2.71 56.7 53.0

This actually isn’t the most important Kentucky-Kansas State game in the schools’ histories.  These two Wildcats faced off 67 years ago, minus five days, for the 1951 National Championship on the campus of the University of Minnesota.  Adolph Rupp’s Kentucky squad won his third national title in four years, but it was a close game until late.

Back to the present time.  This game looks on the surface to be rather one-sided.  Kentucky, even without Jarred Vanderbilt, looks a bit too strong for Kansas State.

Hey, did you notice that this makes three out of three games, where one team has the superior rebounding edge, and the other has an equally superior turnover edge?  The difference in this game and the other two is that Kansas State’s advantages are almost nil.  Their R+T Rating is just barely positive, and in our past years relying on R+T, we cannot remember any team with a rating as low as 0.9 ever making the Elite 8.  Because Kentucky’s R+T Rating is 12.3, Coach John Calipari’s Cats will be expected to receive about 11 more cheap scoring opportunities.  When you factor in that Kentucky also has a minor true shooting percentage margin edge, this leads us to forecast a double-digit Kentucky win tonight.  Our pick: KENTUCKY 

 

Gonzaga vs. Florida St.

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Gonzaga Y 32-4 84-68 9.37 22.6 53.89
Florida St. Y 22-11 81-74 4.18 10.6 58.79
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Gonzaga 8.75 6.36 5.06 0.97 59.8 50.4
Florida St. 2.85 6.88 5.85 1.30 56.5 52.3

The underdog Seminoles look to have a fighting chance in this game due to their superior schedule strength.  Florida State does not have a serious exploitable flaw.  They just don’t have a major statistic that is a decisive asset.

Gonzaga has an incredible R+T rating that many Final Four teams in the past have possessed.  Their almost 10% true shooting percentage is also Final Fourish, as is their 16-point average margin of victory.  Teams seldom win by an average margin this high that cannot go on major runs at the right time.  It just isn’t easy to slowly pull away by a point here and there until the lead is past 15 points.  The number one event that usually leads a team deep into tournament play is the ability to have a big spurt at the right time, and Gonzaga is clearly the team that can do this tonight.

The way we see this game is that FSU will take an early lead in the first half, and then Gonzaga will go on its first of three or four scoring runs to grab the lead and then extend the lead to five or six by halftime.  Then, the Bulldogs will make their patented big run in the second half to put the game out of reach.  The Seminoles may make a valiant effort in the final minutes, but it will be too little, too late.  Our Pick: GONZAGA

 

Friday’s Games

Kansas vs. Clemson

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Kansas Y 29-7 81-71 8.34 5.4 61.30
Clemson Y 25-9 74-66 6.68 7.9 59.83
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Kansas 0.08 6.67 5.50 1.44 59.8 51.4
Clemson 2.44 5.65 5.74 -0.06 56.7 50.1

Most casual fans will look at this game and immediately dismiss it as a Jayhawk blowout win.  This is far from being the probable case.  This is a Kansas team with exploitable weaknesses not typical for a Bill Self production.  KU has an exceptional offense, but their defense is prone to lapses.  In a game where the action is fierce on the glass, the Jayhawks do not bring their usual centaurs to the fight.  Rebounding is a liability with this club.  KU doesn’t make up for this weakness with an exceptional turnover margin, but they do pick up a good number of steals that lead to fast break points.

Clemson and championships go hand-in-hand, just not in basketball.  This group of Tigers competed admirably in the ACC race this year, and they have an experienced backcourt.  While CU has an issue with turnovers, this liability will most likely not be used to KU’s advantage.  Clemson can rebound with competence, and the Tigers know how to stop their opponents from scoring just long enough to put a game away.

Only because of experience and a slightly more difficult schedule do we stick with the logical team in this one, but it will not be an easy victory, and it will almost assuredly be their last one of the season.  Our pick: KANSAS

Villanova vs. West Virginia

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Villanova Y 32-4 88-76 10.18 13.1 60.33
West Virginia Y 26-10 80-69 0.66 16.9 60.59
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Villanova 2.86 6.67 4.67 2.72 62.4 52.2
West Virginia 3.61 8.08 5.53 5.17 54.5 53.9

Finally, we get a game where the rebounding and turnover issue does not matter as much as in the other games.  Right away, that should tell you which way we think this game will go.  Press Virginia needs to score points off steals and stop the other team from scoring against the press by either forcing them to throw the ball away or by using up so much clock that they must shoot a low-percentage shot.

Villanova is built for press-breaking and scoring easy baskets once the press is broken.  We believe Coach Bob Huggins might have to call the press off if VU scores too many times on crips.

West Virginia just cannot win a finesse game against this team.  Villanova enjoys a commanding true shooting percentage margin advantage in this game, and we have seen WVU players throw up their share of bricks.  This game should eventually get out of hand, as the team that won the title two years ago makes it look like they could return to the Final Four this year.  Our pick: VILLANOVA

Duke vs. Syracuse

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Duke Y 28-7 85-69 10.11 21.7 60.69
Syracuse Y 22-13 67-64 1.55 11.3 58.92
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Duke 9.20 7.37 5.77 -0.66 59.0 48.9
Syracuse 3.69 7.08 6.11 0.50 51.8 50.2

If you are a Baby Boomer, you know doubt know that the campy TV version of Batman is the only real, legitimate production.  Those movies just capitalized on the great reputation of Adam West of blessed memory.

There was a double episode where Batman faced the Joker, where the going was tough, because the Joker created his own utility belt.  He hand sneezing powder in there.  He had hand-shocking buzzers in there.  He had a bevy of evil tricks to combat the Caped Crusaders.

You can see where this is going, can’t you?  The villainous Blue Devils have their own utility belt.  It is called the 2-3 zone, and early in its employment, it is beating the original one created by Bruce Wayne, aka Jim Boeheim.

The element of surprise disappears for the Cinderella Orangemen Friday.  The Duke Blue Devils know how to attack Syracuse’s defense, and they know how to employ their own utility belt 2-3 zone that for now is proving to be superior to Batman’s, er Syracuse’s.

Here’s the rub.  Duke can penetrate and score inside against Syracuse, something that Arizona State, TCU, and Michigan State could not do.  The Blue Devils have excellent perimeter shooters, and Syracuse will not be able to pack their defense in the paint.  Duke will get open three-pointers and also be able to initiate enough penetration to the point where the Orangemen will either have to give up easy 10-12 foot shots or challenge and become overly vulnerable to a very athletic and very big front line.

On the other side of the ball, Duke’s new 2-3 zone is much more athletic than the Syracuse zone.  At times, Duke makes this look more like a 3-2 drop zone, and we have seen the back line move up into an almost 4-1 look while still protecting the basket.

If you have been reading this site this year, then you know that we are sticking with the Blue Devils to cut down the nets in San Antonio.  The PiRate criteria says this game is a mismatch, and there is nothing we see that makes us think there is a reason not to expect a win by 15-20 points for Coach K’s Army.  Our pick: DUKE

Purdue vs. Texas Tech

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Purdue Y 30-6 81-65 11.43 10.5 59.31
Texas Tech Y 26-9 75-65 5.15 14.5 59.89
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Purdue 2.64 5.72 5.14 1.53 60.8 49.4
Texas Tech 4.11 7.26 5.97 2.57 55.8 50.6

This game would be an easy one to forecast if Isaac Haas were available and at least 80% of his usual self.  Purdue finally had the talent and playing style to make it to the Final Four, but losing Haas’s top-quality offensive efficiency really hurts the Boilermakers.

Texas Tech is a solid but not spectacular team. The Red Raiders are not the same team they were prior to Zach Smith’s injury.  TTU was 14-1 when Smith was lost for almost eight weeks.  They went 8-6 without him, and they only went 2-2 to close out the regular season once he returned nowhere near as effective as he had been.

Smith began to resemble his old self in the Stephen F. Austin game, and maybe he is coming back into form, where he can supplement his team by coming off the bench.  It is hard to recover that quickly from a broken foot, so it’s uncertain how many minutes he can play and stay effective.

At least Smith can play, which is more than we can say about Haas.  Purdue played courageously in their win over Butler.  Freshman giant Matt Haarms, took over for Haas at center, but there was a huge drop in talent between 7 foot 2 inch giants.  Haarms connected on just one shot from the field and seemed a bit stiff trying to play defense in the paint or pulling down rebounds.  It took a monumental outside shooting effort for the Boilermakers to win.

Texas Tech is a bigger force to beat without a principle weapon.  The Red Raiders will neutralize Purdue’s outside game with four competent perimeter defenders that will keep man-to-man pressure outside.

There may be one more win inside the Boilermaker Express, even if they have one less engine on the track.  Texas Tech doesn’t really have the fantastic inside presence to exploit Purdue’s loss of Haas, and Haarms just might come up with a better performance Friday night after having the first start jitters melted away.  He is going to play 30 minutes in this game, and he just might surprise some folks.  We think this game is a complete toss-up.  Our Pick: PURDUE

The NIT

The National Invitation Tournament used to be on equal footing with the NCAA Tournament.  There were some years where the NIT champion was decisively better than the NCAA Tournament champion.

Alas, those days are gone.  However, the NIT has proven to have a new usefulness.  Many experimental rules have been experimented with in this tournament, and this year, it has produced excellent results with rules that we believe should be implemented next year.

  1. The NIT is using four, 10-minute quarters rather than two, 20-minute halves.  This is not the first time that college basketball used quarters instead of halves.  It was tried in the 1950s.  We think that playing quarters and with the change in foul rules, it allows defenses to play more aggressively, knowing that they get a clean slate at the end of the first and third quarters.  Also, it doubles the amount of last possessions in the game, which leads to two more buzzer-beater opportunities, something great for the fans.
  2. The shot clock does not reset to 30 seconds on an offensive rebound.  It reset to just 20 seconds, which means teams cannot just throw the ball back to the outside and slowly run the offense again.  They must try to put the ball back up and score without resetting their offense.  This should lead in theory to about three or four more possessions in the game.

We here on the PiRate ship believe that fans do not want to pay exorbitant ticket prices to see dribbling exhibitions.  Action involves passing and moving, and anything that reduces dribbling can only be good for the game.  We’d like to see the closely guarded dribbling rule re-instated, where a player cannot dribble for five seconds while being guarded man-to-man without advancing toward the goal.  If this rule returned, it would force ball hogs to give up the ball within four seconds, and it would lead to more passing and more movement.  It might push average possessions back up to 75+ per game like it was when college basketball was its most exciting in the period between 1965 and 1975.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 12, 2017

Sunday March Madness Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:48 am

Rhode Island won an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by topping VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.  The Rams now must be moved into first round bye status, so now a new team must be lowered into the First Four in Dayton.

Our Gurus will not have time to send us those teams, so we will go with the lowest team that received a bye prior to URI being moved up.

Thus, Vanderbilt moves down to the First Four as an 11-seed to face USC and Wake Forest moves to a 12-seed to Kansas State in the other First Four game.

December 4, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 8, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

P i R a t e
# Team PiRate
1 Alabama 133.1
2 Oregon   131.7
3 Texas A&M 128.3
4 Kansas St. 128.0
5 Oklahoma 127.0
6 Notre Dame 125.2
7 Georgia 125.2
8 L S U   123.2
9 Oklahoma St. 123.2
10 South Carolina 123.0
11 Florida St. 120.7
12 Florida 120.5
13 Stanford 120.5
14 Clemson   119.3
15 U S C 117.9
16 Baylor 117.2
17 Texas 117.0
18 Wisconsin   116.6
19 Oregon St. 115.9
20 U C L A 114.9
21 West Virginia 114.9
22 Ohio St. 114.8
23 Michigan 114.4
24 T C U 114.1
25 Vanderbilt 113.0
26 B Y U 112.3
27 Nebraska 111.6
28 Arizona St. 110.3
29 Michigan St. 110.1
30 Mississippi St. 109.8
31 Arizona 109.7
32 Penn St. 109.6
33 Iowa St. 109.5
34 Texas Tech 109.3
35 Washington 109.2
36 Northwestern 108.8
37 Ole Miss 108.4
38 North Carolina 107.9
39 Tennessee 107.3
40 Missouri 107.1
41 Boise St. 106.6
42 Georgia Tech 106.2
43 Syracuse 105.9
44 Northern Illinois   105.8
45 Fresno St. 105.7
46 Utah 105.5
47 Central Florida 105.3
48 Utah St. 105.2
49 Pittsburgh 104.9
50 Cincinnati 104.6
51 Rutgers 104.3
52 Miami-FL 104.2
53 Tulsa 104.0
54 North Carolina St. 103.8
55 Virginia Tech 103.3
56 Louisiana Tech   103.1
57 San Jose St. 102.7
58 Arkansas 102.4
59 Louisville 101.9
60 Arkansas St. 101.2
61 San Diego St. 100.6
62 Purdue 100.3
63 Kent St. 99.7
64 Ball St. 99.7
65 California 99.6
66 Auburn 98.2
67 Iowa 97.4
68 Toledo 96.7
69 Duke 96.7
70 Virginia 96.3
71 Minnesota 96.1
72 S M U 96.0
73 Bowling Green 95.9
74 Connecticut 95.6
75 South Florida 95.5
76 Boston College 95.4
77 UL-Lafayette 95.3
78 Nevada 95.1
79 Maryland 95.1
80 Louisiana-Monroe 94.6
81 Washington St. 93.8
82 Kansas 93.7
83 East Carolina 93.4
84 Rice 92.5
85 Navy 92.1
86 Indiana 91.8
87 Western Kentucky 91.5
88 Houston 90.1
89 Western Michigan 89.7
90 Wake Forest 89.4
91 Ohio U 89.2
92 Kentucky 89.2
93 Temple 89.1
94 Marshall 88.9
95 Troy 88.9
96 Illinois 88.5
97 U T E P 87.6
98 Wyoming 87.5
99 Air Force 87.1
100 North Texas 85.9
101 Central Michigan 85.7
102 Buffalo 85.2
103 Florida International 85.2
104 Army 84.3
105 Miami (O) 84.3
106 Colorado St. 83.5
107 Middle Tennessee 83.2
108 U A B 83.0
109 New Mexico 82.6
110 Texas St. 82.3
111 Memphis 82.0
112 Southern Mississippi   80.8
113 Colorado 80.1
114 Hawaii 79.8
115 Eastern Michigan 79.7
116 Florida Atlantic 79.6
117 UNLV 78.8
118 U T S A 77.7
119 Tulane 75.3
120 Akron 74.3
121 South Alabama 74.2
122 Idaho 73.2
123 New Mexico St. 69.3
124 Massachusetts 68.1

 

V i n t a g e
# Team Vintage
1 Alabama 128.0
2 Georgia  127.0
3 Notre Dame 126.0
4 Texas A&M 125.5
5 Oregon 125.0
6 L S U 124.5
7 Ohio St. 124.5
8 Stanford 124.0
9 Florida  123.5
10 Kansas St. 122.0
11 South Carolina 121.5
12 Oklahoma 120.5
13 Michigan 118.0
14 Oklahoma St. 116.0
15 Florida St. 115.5
16 U C L A 115.0
17 Nebraska 115.0
18 Wisconsin 114.5
19 Vanderbilt 114.5
20 Clemson 114.0
21 Oregon St. 113.5
22 Penn St. 113.5
23 Northwestern 112.5
24 Southern Cal 112.0
25 B Y U 111.5
26 T C U 111.0
27 Ole Miss 110.5
28 Baylor 110.0
29 Boise St. 109.5
30 Fresno St. 109.5
31 San Diego St. 109.5
32 Michigan St. 109.5
33 Mississippi St. 109.0
34 Texas 109.0
35 West Virginia 108.5
36 Utah St. 108.5
37 Arizona St. 108.0
38 North Carolina St. 107.5
39 Arizona 107.5
40 Cincinnati 107.0
41 Washington 107.0
42 North Carolina 106.5
43 Kent St. 106.0
44 Northern Illinois 105.5
45 Miami 105.0
46 Texas Tech 105.0
47 Virginia Tech 105.0
48 San Jose St. 104.5
49 Syracuse 104.5
50 Georgia Tech 104.0
51 Utah 104.0
52 Central Florida 103.5
53 Iowa St. 103.5
54 Missouri 103.0
55 Arkansas 103.0
56 Arkansas St. 102.5
57 Louisiana Tech 102.5
58 Louisville 102.0
59 Rutgers 101.0
60 Tulsa 100.5
61 Nevada 100.0
62 Virginia 100.0
63 Pittsburgh 99.5
64 Bowling Green 99.5
65 Ball St. 99.5
66 Purdue 99.5
67 Tennessee 99.0
68 Duke 98.5
69 Minnesota 98.0
70 Boston College 97.5
71 Toledo 96.5
72 California 96.0
73 East Carolina 95.0
74 Navy 95.0
75 Rice 94.0
76 UL-Lafayette 94.0
77 Indiana 94.0
78 Connecticut 93.5
79 Iowa 93.5
80 Ohio U 93.0
81 Temple 93.0
82 Kansas 93.0
83 S M U 92.5
84 Wake Forest 92.5
85 Auburn 92.5
86 UL-Monroe 92.0
87 Maryland 91.5
88 Kentucky 91.0
89 Air Force 90.0
90 Middle Tennessee 90.0
91 Washington St. 90.0
92 Central Michigan 89.5
93 Illinois 89.5
94 Western Kentucky 89.0
95 Troy 88.5
96 South Florida 88.5
97 Colorado 88.5
98 Marshall 88.0
99 Wyoming 88.0
100 Colorado St. 88.0
101 U T S A 87.5
102 Buffalo 87.5
103 Army 87.0
104 Texas St. 86.5
105 Memphis 86.0
106 Miami (O) 85.0
107 Houston 84.5
108 New Mexico 84.5
109 U A B 83.5
110 Western Michigan 83.5
111 Florida Int’l 83.0
112 U N L V 82.5
113 U T E P 82.0
114 Hawaii 80.5
115 Eastern Michigan 80.5
116 Florida Atlantic 80.0
117 North Texas 79.0
118 Akron 78.5
119 Tulane 76.0
120 Massachusetts 75.5
121 Idaho 74.5
122 Southern Miss. 74.5
123 South Alabama 74.0
124 New Mexico St. 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Florida St. 7-1 11-2 120.7 115.5
Clemson   7-1 10-2 119.3 114.0
North Carolina St. 4-4 7-5 103.8 107.5
Boston College 1-7 2-10 95.4 97.5
Maryland 2-6 4-8 95.1 91.5
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7 89.4 92.5
         
Coastal Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
North Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.9 106.5
Georgia Tech 5-3 6-7 106.2 104.0
Miami-FL 5-3 8-4 104.2 105.0
Virginia Tech 4-4 6-6 103.3 105.0
Duke 3-5 6-6 96.7 98.5
Virginia 2-6 4-8 96.3 100.0
         
         
Conference Means 103.16   103.19 103.1

 

 

Big East Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Syracuse 5-2 7-5 105.9 104.5
Pittsburgh 3-4 6-6 104.9 99.5
Cincinnati 5-2 9-3 104.6 107.0
Rutgers 5-2 9-3 104.3 101.0
Louisville 5-2 10-2 101.9 102.0
Connecticut 2-5 5-7 95.6 93.5
South Florida 1-6 3-9 95.5 88.5
Temple 2-5 4-7 89.1 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 99.425   100.23 98.6

 

 

Big Ten
         
Leaders Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Wisconsin   4-4 8-5 116.6 114.5
Ohio St. 8-0 12-0 114.8 124.5
Penn St. 6-2 8-4 109.6 113.5
Purdue 3-5 6-6 100.3 99.5
Indiana 2-6 4-8 91.8 94.0
Illinois 0-8 2-10 88.5 89.5
         
Legends Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Michigan 6-2 8-4 114.4 118.0
Nebraska 7-1 10-3 111.6 115.0
Michigan St. 3-5 6-6 110.1 109.5
Northwestern 5-3 9-3 108.8 112.5
Iowa 2-6 4-8 97.4 93.5
Minnesota 2-6 6-6 96.1 98.0
         
Conference Means 105.917   105.00 106.8

 

 

Big 12
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kansas St. 8-1 11-1 128.0 122.0
Oklahoma 8-1 10-2 127.0 120.5
Oklahoma St. 5-4 7-5 123.2 116.0
Baylor 4-5 7-5 117.2 110.0
Texas 5-4 8-4 117.0 109.0
West Virginia 4-5 7-5 114.9 108.5
T C U 4-5 7-5 114.1 111.0
Iowa St. 3-6 6-6 109.5 103.5
Texas Tech 4-5 7-5 109.3 105.0
Kansas 0-9 1-11 93.7 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.62   115.39 109.9

 

 

Conference USA
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Central Florida 7-1 9-4 105.3 103.5
East Carolina 7-1 8-4 93.4 95.0
Marshall 4-4 5-7 88.9 88.0
U A B 2-6 3-9 83.0 83.5
Memphis 4-4 4-8 82.0 86.0
Southern Mississippi   0-8 0-12 80.8 74.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Tulsa 7-1 10-3 104.0 100.5
S M U 5-3 6-6 96.0 92.5
Rice 4-4 6-6 92.5 94.0
Houston 4-4 5-7 90.1 84.5
U T E P 2-6 3-9 87.6 82.0
Tulane 2-6 2-10 75.3 76.0
         
         
Conference Means 89.1208   89.91 88.3

 

 

Independents
         
Team   Overall Rating Vintage
Notre Dame   12-0 125.2 126.0
B Y U   7-5 112.3 111.5
Navy   7-4 92.1 95.0
Army   2-9 84.3 87.0
         
         
Conference Means 104.175   103.48 104.9

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kent St. 8-0 11-2 99.7 106.0
Bowling Green 6-2 8-4 95.9 99.5
Ohio U 4-4 8-4 89.2 93.0
Buffalo 3-5 4-8 85.2 87.5
Miami (O) 3-5 4-8 84.3 85.0
Akron 0-8 1-11 74.3 78.5
Massachusetts 1-7 1-11 68.1 75.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Northern Illinois   8-0 12-1 105.8 105.5
Ball St. 6-2 9-3 99.7 99.5
Toledo 6-2 9-3 96.7 96.5
Western Michigan 2-6 4-8 89.7 83.5
Central Michigan 4-4 6-6 85.7 89.5
Eastern Michigan 1-7 2-10 79.7 80.5
         
         
Conference Means 89.7692   88.77 90.8

 

 

Mountain West Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Boise St. 7-1 10-2 106.6 109.5
Fresno St. 7-1 9-3 105.7 109.5
San Diego St. 7-1 9-3 100.6 109.5
Nevada 4-4 7-5 95.1 100.0
Wyoming 3-5 4-8 87.5 88.0
Air Force 5-3 6-6 87.1 90.0
Colorado St. 3-5 4-8 83.5 88.0
New Mexico 1-7 4-9 82.6 84.5
Hawaii 1-7 3-9 79.8 80.5
UNLV 2-6 2-11 78.8 82.5
         
         
Conference Means 92.465   90.73 94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oregon   8-1 11-1 131.7 125.0
Stanford 8-1 11-2 120.5 124.0
Oregon St. 6-3 9-3 115.9 113.5
Washington 5-4 7-5 109.2 107.0
California 2-7 3-9 99.6 96.0
Washington St. 1-8 3-9 93.8 90.0
         
South Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
U S C 5-4 7-5 117.9 112.0
U C L A 6-3 9-4 114.9 115.0
Arizona St. 5-4 7-5 110.3 108.0
Arizona 4-5 7-5 109.7 107.5
Utah 3-6 5-7 105.5 104.0
Colorado 1-8 1-11 80.1 88.5
         
         
Conference Means 108.317   109.09 107.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Georgia 7-1 11-2 125.2 127.0
South Carolina 6-2 10-2 123.0 121.5
Florida 7-1 11-1 120.5 123.5
Vanderbilt 5-3 8-4 113.0 114.5
Tennessee 1-7 5-7 107.3 99.0
Missouri 2-6 5-7 107.1 103.0
Kentucky 0-8 2-10 89.2 91.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Alabama 7-1 12-1 133.1 128.0
Texas A&M 6-2 10-2 128.3 125.5
L S U   6-2 10-2 123.2 124.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 109.8 109.0
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 108.4 110.5
Arkansas 2-6 4-8 102.4 103.0
Auburn 0-8 3-9 98.2 92.5
         
         
Conference Means 112.9   113.48 112.3

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Arkansas St. 7-1 9-3 101.2 102.5
UL-Lafayette 6-2 8-4 95.3 94.0
Louisiana-Monroe 6-2 8-4 94.6 92.0
Western Kentucky 4-4 7-5 91.5 89.0
Troy 3-5 5-7 88.9 88.5
Middle Tennessee 6-2 8-4 83.2 90.0
North Texas 3-5 4-8 85.9 79.0
Florida International 2-6 3-9 85.2 83.0
Florida Atlantic 2-6 3-9 79.6 80.0
South Alabama 1-7 2-11 74.2 74.0
         
         
Conference Means 87.58   87.96 87.2

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Utah St. 6-0 10-2 105.2 108.5
Louisiana Tech   4-2 9-3 103.1 102.5
San Jose St. 5-1 10-2 102.7 104.5
Texas St. 2-4 4-8 82.3 86.5
U T S A 3-3 8-4 77.7 87.5
Idaho 1-5 1-11 73.2 74.5
New Mexico St. 0-6 1-11 69.3 67.0
         
         
Conference Means 88.8929   87.64 90.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spread

Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage Line
Navy (Philadelphia) Army 7.8 8.0 7   

 

The Bowls

Day Date Time EST Bowl City Network Team Team
Sat D. 15 1:00 PM New Mexico Albuquerque ESPN Nevada Arizona
Sat D. 15 4:30 PM Famous Idaho Potato Boise ESPN Toledo Utah St.
Thu D. 20 8:00 PM Poinsettia San Diego ESPN San Diego St. B Y U
Fri D. 21 7:30 PM Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg ESPN Ball St. Central Fla.
Sat D. 22 12:00 PM New Orleans New Orleans ESPN UL-Lafayette East Carolina
Sat D. 22 3:30 PM MAACO Las Vegas ESPN Boise St. Washington
Mon D. 24 8:00 PM Hawaii Honolulu ESPN Fresno St. S M U
Wed D. 26 7:30 PM Little Caesar’s Pizza Detroit ESPN Western Ky. Central Mich.
Thu D. 27 3:00 PM Military Washington, DC ESPN San Jose St. Bowling Green
Thu D. 27 6:30 PM Belk Charlotte ESPN Duke Cincinnati
Thu D. 27 9:45 PM Holiday San Diego ESPN U C L A Baylor
Fri D. 28 2:00 PM Independence Shreveport ESPN UL-Monroe Ohio U
Fri D. 28 5:30 PM Russell Athletic Orlando ESPN Rutgers Va. Tech
Fri D. 28 9:00 PM Meineke Car Care of Texas Houston ESPN Minnesota Texas Tech
Sat D. 29 11:45 AM Armed Forces Ft. Worth ESPN Rice Air Force
Sat D. 29 3:15 PM Pinstripe Bronx ESPN Syracuse West Virginia
Sat D. 29 4:00 PM Kraft Fight Hunger San Francisco ESPN2 Arizona St. Navy
Sat D. 29 6:45 PM Alamo San Antonio ESPN Texas Oregon St.
Sat D. 29 10:15 PM Buffalo Wild Wings Tempe ESPN T C U Michigan St.
Mon D. 31 12:00 PM Music City Nashville ESPN Vanderbilt N. Carolina St.
Mon D. 31 2:00 PM Sun El Paso CBS Ga. Tech Southern Cal
Mon D. 31 3:30 PM Liberty Memphis ESPN Iowa St. Tulsa
Mon D. 31 7:30 PM Chick-fil-A Atlanta ESPN L S U Clemson
Tue J. 1 12:00 PM Heart of Dallas Dallas ESPNU Purdue Oklahoma St.
Tue J. 1 12:00 PM Gator Jacksonville ESPN2 Northwestern Mississippi St.
Tue J. 1 1:00 PM Capital One Orlando ABC Nebraska Georgia
Tue J. 1 1:00 PM Outback Tampa ESPN South Carolina Michigan
Tue J. 1 5:00 PM Rose Pasadena ESPN Stanford Wisconsin
Tue J. 1 8:30 PM Orange Miami ESPN Florida St. Northern Illinois
Wed J. 2 8:30 PM Sugar New Orleans ESPN Florida Louisville
Thu J. 3 8:30 PM Fiesta Glendale ESPN Kansas St. Oregon
Fri J. 4 8:00 PM Cotton Arlington Fox Oklahoma Texas A&M
Sat J. 5 1:00 PM BBVA Compass Birmingham ESPN Pittsburgh Ole Miss
Sun J. 6 9:00 PM GoDaddy.com Mobile ESPN Arkansas St. Kent St.
Mon J. 7 8:30 PM National Championship New Orleans ESPN Notre Dame Alabama

 

Note: Check back Friday, December 7 for the opening round of the PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs.

November 7, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 6-10, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate
1 Alabama 134.8
2 Kansas St. 131.1
3 Oregon   130.9
4 Oklahoma 129.0
5 L S U   125.5
6 Notre Dame 124.5
7 Florida St. 124.4
8 Texas A&M 123.9
9 South Carolina 122.6
10 Oklahoma St. 122.5
11 Georgia 121.1
12 Florida 121.1
13 Clemson   120.9
14 U S C 120.0
15 Stanford 117.6
16 Texas 117.0
17 Michigan 116.9
18 Nebraska 115.8
19 U C L A 114.8
20 Texas Tech 113.8
21 B Y U 113.8
22 Ohio St. 113.5
23 Oregon St. 113.2
24 T C U 112.5
25 Wisconsin    112.3
26 Utah 111.4
27 Iowa St. 110.8
28 West Virginia 110.6
29 Baylor 110.4
30 Michigan St. 110.3
31 North Carolina 109.9
32 Vanderbilt 109.4
33 Arizona 109.3
34 Missouri 109.2
35 Tennessee 109.2
36 Penn St. 108.4
37 Mississippi St. 108.4
38 Arizona St. 107.6
39 Washington 107.4
40 Central Florida 106.7
41 Ole Miss 106.4
42 Louisiana Tech   106.4
43 Rutgers 106.1
44 Boise St. 105.9
45 Louisville 104.9
46 Northern Illinois   104.0
47 Utah St. 104.0
48 California 104.0
49 Pittsburgh 103.8
50 Georgia Tech 103.4
51 Northwestern 103.3
52 Arkansas 103.0
53 Virginia Tech 102.9
54 Cincinnati 102.7
55 Fresno St. 102.7
56 Tulsa 102.4
57 Syracuse 101.4
58 Miami-FL 101.3
59 South Florida 100.8
60 Toledo 100.6
61 Auburn 100.6
62 North Carolina St. 99.9
63 San Diego St. 99.6
64 Purdue 98.6
65 San Jose St. 98.0
66 Duke 97.8
67 Iowa 97.8
68 Kent St. 97.2
69 Minnesota 96.8
70 Indiana 96.6
71 Virginia 96.6
72 Maryland 96.2
73 Nevada 96.1
74 Louisiana-Monroe 96.1
75 Kansas 96.1
76 Ball St. 96.0
77 Wake Forest 95.5
78 S M U 95.5
79 Western Kentucky 95.4
80 Arkansas St. 95.1
81 East Carolina 94.8
82 Bowling Green 94.5
83 Boston College 94.4
84 Washington St. 93.7
85 Connecticut 93.5
86 Ohio U 93.4
87 Western Michigan 93.4
88 Navy 93.1
89 UL-Lafayette 92.6
90 Houston 92.5
91 Illinois 91.0
92 Marshall 90.2
93 Air Force 89.2
94 Rice 89.0
95 Kentucky 88.6
96 Troy 88.3
97 U T E P 88.2
98 Temple 87.9
99 Wyoming 87.2
100 Army 87.0
101 Middle Tennessee 86.5
102 North Texas 86.4
103 Miami (O) 85.4
104 UNLV 85.1
105 U A B 84.4
106 Southern Mississippi   84.2
107 Central Michigan 84.0
108 Buffalo 84.0
109 Florida International 83.5
110 New Mexico 83.2
111 Colorado St. 80.9
112 Eastern Michigan 80.2
113 Colorado 78.9
114 Texas St. 78.3
115 Florida Atlantic 78.2
116 Hawaii 76.7
117 Tulane 76.6
118 U T S A 75.9
119 Akron 75.6
120 Idaho 75.2
121 Memphis 74.7
122 South Alabama 74.6
123 New Mexico St. 74.3
124 Massachusetts 65.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Vintage Ratings

# Team Vintage
1 Alabama 129.0
2 Kansas St. 127.0
3 Oregon 127.0
4 Georgia  126.5
5 Notre Dame 123.5
6 Florida  123.5
7 L S U 123.0
8 Florida St. 122.0
9 Ohio State 121.5
10 Texas A&M 121.0
11 S. Carolina 120.5
12 Stanford 119.5
13 Clemson 118.5
14 Oklahoma 118.5
15 Nebraska 116.5
16 U S C 116.5
17 Michigan 115.5
18 Oklahoma St. 115.5
19 U C L A 113.5
20 N. Carolina 113.0
21 Louisville 112.5
22 Penn State 112.5
23 B Y U 112.0
24 Miami 111.5
25 Mississippi St. 111.5
26 Michigan St. 111.0
27 Texas 110.5
28 Washington 110.5
29 Oregon St. 110.0
30 Vanderbilt 110.0
31 Wisconsin 109.5
32 Texas Tech 109.5
33 San Diego St. 109.0
34 Boise St. 108.5
35 Ole Miss 108.5
36 Utah 107.5
37 T C U 107.5
38 Rutgers 107.0
39 Northwestern 107.0
40 Arkansas 106.5
41 West Virginia 106.5
42 Fresno St. 106.0
43 Cincinnati 106.0
44 La. Tech 105.5
45 Missouri 105.5
46 Central Fla. 105.0
47 Arizona 104.5
48 Tennessee 104.5
49 Utah St. 104.0
50 Kent St. 103.5
51 Northern Ill. 103.5
52 Virginia Tech 103.5
53 Iowa St. 103.5
54 N. Carolina St. 103.0
55 Tulsa 103.0
56 Arizona St. 103.0
57 Baylor 102.5
58 Pittsburgh 102.0
59 Indiana 101.0
60 Iowa 100.0
61 Syracuse 99.5
62 Toledo 99.5
63 Nevada 99.5
64 San Jose St. 99.0
65 Duke 99.0
66 Minnesota 98.5
67 Bowling Green 98.0
68 Ohio U 98.0
69 Wake Forest 97.5
70 Georgia Tech 97.5
71 Virginia 97.5
72 California 97.5
73 Auburn 97.0
74 Navy 96.5
75 Arkansas St. 95.0
76 Ball St. 95.0
77 Maryland 94.5
78 Boston College 94.0
79 S M U 94.0
80 S. Florida 93.5
81 Air Force 93.5
82 Temple 93.0
83 East Carolina 93.0
84 Purdue 93.0
85 UL-Monroe 92.5
86 Western Mich. 92.5
87 Kansas 92.0
88 UL-Lafayette 91.0
89 Middle Tenn. 91.0
90 Western Ky. 91.0
91 Kentucky 91.0
92 Illinois 91.0
93 UNLV 90.0
94 Army 90.0
95 Miami (O) 90.0
96 Central Mich. 90.0
97 Washington St. 90.0
98 Connecticut 89.5
99 New Mexico 89.0
100 Colorado 88.5
101 Houston 88.0
102 Marshall 87.5
103 Rice 87.0
104 Colorado St. 86.5
105 Buffalo 85.5
106 Wyoming 85.0
107 Troy 84.5
108 Tulane 84.0
109 UTSA 84.0
110 U A B 83.5
111 U T E P 83.5
112 Texas St. 83.0
113 Akron 82.5
114 Florida Int’l 81.5
115 Eastern Mich. 79.5
116 Hawaii 79.0
117 Memphis 77.5
118 N. Texas 77.5
119 Idaho 77.5
120 Florida Atl. 77.0
121 Southern Miss. 76.5
122 S. Alabama 75.0
123 U. Mass. 73.5
124 N. Mexico St. 71.0

 

Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Florida St. 5-1 8-1 124.4 122.0
Clemson   5-1 8-1 120.9 118.5
North Carolina St. 2-3 5-4 99.9 103.0
Maryland 2-3 4-5 96.2 94.5
Wake Forest 3-4 5-4 95.5 97.5
Boston College 1-5 2-7 94.4 94.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
North Carolina 3-2 6-3 109.9 113.0
Georgia Tech 3-3 4-5 103.4 97.5
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 102.9 103.5
Miami-FL 4-2 6-3 101.3 111.5
Duke 3-3 6-4 97.8 99.0
Virginia 1-4 3-6 96.6 97.5
         
         
Conference Means 103.95   103.60 104.3

 

 

Big East Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Rutgers 4-0 7-1 106.1 107.0
Louisville 4-0 9-0 104.9 112.5
Pittsburgh 1-3 4-5 103.8 102.0
Cincinnati 2-1 6-2 102.7 106.0
Syracuse 3-2 4-5 101.4 99.5
South Florida 1-4 3-6 100.8 93.5
Connecticut 0-4 3-6 93.5 89.5
Temple 2-3 3-5 87.9 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 100.256   100.14 100.4

 

 

Big Ten
         
Leaders Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Ohio St. 6-0 10-0 113.5 121.5
Wisconsin   3-2 6-3 112.3 109.5
Penn St. 4-1 6-3 108.4 112.5
Purdue 0-5 3-6 98.6 93.0
Indiana 2-3 4-5 96.6 101.0
Illinois 0-5 2-7 91.0 91.0
         
Legends Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Michigan 4-1 6-3 116.9 115.5
Nebraska 4-1 7-2 115.8 116.5
Michigan St. 2-4 5-5 110.3 111.0
Northwestern 3-2 7-2 103.3 107.0
Iowa 2-3 4-5 97.8 100.0
Minnesota 1-4 5-4 96.8 98.5
         
Conference Means 105.763   105.11 106.4

 

 

Big 12
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kansas St. 6-0 9-0 131.1 127.0
Oklahoma 4-1 6-2 129.0 118.5
Oklahoma St. 3-2 5-3 122.5 115.5
Texas 4-2 7-2 117.0 110.5
Texas Tech 3-3 6-3 113.8 109.5
T C U 3-3 6-3 112.5 107.5
Iowa St. 2-4 5-4 110.8 103.5
West Virginia 2-3 5-3 110.6 106.5
Baylor 1-4 4-4 110.4 102.5
Kansas 0-6 1-8 96.1 92.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.34   115.38 109.3

 

 

Conference USA
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Central Florida 5-0 7-2 106.7 105.0
East Carolina 5-1 6-4 94.8 93.0
Marshall 3-2 4-5 90.2 87.5
U A B 1-4 2-7 84.4 83.5
Southern Mississippi   0-5 0-9 84.2 76.5
Memphis 1-4 1-8 74.7 77.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Tulsa 5-0 7-2 102.4 103.0
S M U 3-2 4-5 95.5 94.0
Houston 3-2 4-5 92.5 88.0
Rice 2-4 4-6 89.0 87.0
U T E P 1-4 2-7 88.2 83.5
Tulane 2-3 2-7 76.6 84.0
         
         
Conference Means 89.2375   89.93 88.5

 

 

Independents
         
Team   Overall Rating Vintage
Notre Dame   9-0 124.5 123.5
B Y U   5-4 113.8 112.0
Navy   6-3 93.1 96.5
Army   2-7 87.0 90.0
         
         
Conference Means 105.05   104.60 105.5

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kent St. 5-0 8-1 97.2 103.5
Bowling Green 4-1 6-3 94.5 98.0
Ohio U 4-1 8-1 93.4 98.0
Miami (O) 3-2 4-5 85.4 90.0
Buffalo 1-4 2-7 84.0 85.5
Akron 0-6 1-9 75.6 82.5
Massachusetts 0-5 0-9 65.7 73.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Northern Illinois   6-0 9-1 104.0 103.5
Toledo 5-0 8-1 100.6 99.5
Ball St. 3-2 6-3 96.0 95.0
Western Michigan 2-4 4-6 93.4 92.5
Central Michigan 1-4 3-6 84.0 90.0
Eastern Michigan 0-5 1-8 80.2 79.5
         
         
Conference Means 90.1923   88.77 91.6

 

 

Mountain West Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 105.9 108.5
Fresno St. 5-1 7-3 102.7 106.0
San Diego St. 5-1 7-3 99.6 109.0
Nevada 3-2 6-3 96.1 99.5
Air Force 4-1 5-4 89.2 93.5
Wyoming 1-4 2-7 87.2 85.0
UNLV 2-3 2-8 85.1 90.0
New Mexico 1-4 4-6 83.2 89.0
Colorado St. 1-4 2-7 80.9 86.5
Hawaii 0-5 1-7 76.7 79.0
         
         
Conference Means 92.63   90.66 94.6

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oregon   6-0 9-0 130.9 127.0
Stanford 5-1 7-2 117.6 119.5
Oregon St. 5-1 7-1 113.2 110.0
Washington 3-3 5-4 107.4 110.5
California 2-5 3-7 104.0 97.5
Washington St. 0-6 2-7 93.7 90.0
         
South Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
U S C 4-3 6-3 120.0 116.5
U C L A 4-2 7-2 114.8 113.5
Utah 2-4 4-5 111.4 107.5
Arizona 2-4 5-4 109.3 104.5
Arizona St. 3-3 5-4 107.6 103.0
Colorado 1-5 1-8 78.9 88.5
         
         
Conference Means 108.2   109.07 107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
South Carolina 5-2 7-2 122.6 120.5
Georgia 6-1 8-1 121.1 126.5
Florida 7-1 8-1 121.1 123.5
Vanderbilt 3-3 5-4 109.4 110.0
Missouri 1-5 4-5 109.2 105.5
Tennessee 0-5 4-5 109.2 104.5
Kentucky 0-7 1-9 88.6 91.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Alabama 6-0 9-0 134.8 129.0
L S U   3-2 7-2 125.5 123.0
Texas A&M 4-2 7-2 123.9 121.0
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 108.4 111.5
Ole Miss 2-3 5-4 106.4 108.5
Arkansas 2-3 4-5 103.0 106.5
Auburn 0-6 2-7 100.6 97.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.921   113.13 112.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana-Monroe 4-1 6-3 96.1 92.5
Western Kentucky 3-2 6-3 95.4 91.0
Arkansas St. 4-1 6-3 95.1 95.0
UL-Lafayette 3-2 5-3 92.6 91.0
Troy 3-3 4-5 88.3 84.5
Middle Tennessee 4-1 6-3 86.5 91.0
North Texas 2-3 3-6 86.4 77.5
Florida International 1-5 2-8 83.5 81.5
Florida Atlantic 1-4 2-7 78.2 77.0
South Alabama 1-4 2-7 74.6 75.0
         
         
Conference Means 86.635   87.67 85.6

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana Tech   3-0 8-1 106.4 105.5
Utah St. 4-0 8-2 104.0 104.0
San Jose St. 3-1 7-2 98.0 99.0
Texas St. 1-2 3-5 78.3 83.0
U T S A 1-3 5-4 75.9 84.0
Idaho 1-3 1-8 75.2 77.5
New Mexico St. 0-4 1-8 74.3 71.0
         
         
Conference Means 88.2929   87.44 89.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games
         
Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage  
Tuesday, November 6      
TOLEDO Ball St. 7.6 7.5  
         
Wednesday, November 7      
OHIO U Bowling Green 1.4 2.5  
         
Thursday, November 8      
Florida St. VIRGINIA TECH 18.0 15.0  
ARKANSAS ST. UL-Monroe 2.0 5.5  
         
Friday, November 9      
Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT 7.3 9.5  
         
Saturday, November 10      
MICHIGAN Northwestern 16.6 11.5  
CLEMSON Maryland 27.7 27.0  
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Wake Forest 6.9 8.0  
RUTGERS Army 21.1 19.0  
Louisville SYRACUSE 0.5 10.0  
Miami (Fl) VIRGINIA 1.7 11.0  
Minnesota ILLINOIS 2.8 4.5  
Wisconsin INDIANA 12.7 5.5  
IOWA Purdue 2.2 10.0  
OLE MISS Vanderbilt 0.0 1.5  
NORTH CAROLINA Georgia Tech 9.5 18.5  
Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 1.8 8.5  
Kent St. MIAMI (O) 9.3 11.0  
B Y U Idaho 41.6 37.5  
AKRON Massachusetts 12.4 11.5  
Western Michigan BUFFALO 6.4 4.0  
ALABAMA Texas A&M 13.9 11.0  
Georgia AUBURN 17.5 26.5  
NEBRASKA Penn St. 10.4 7.0  
Notre Dame BOSTON COLLEGE 27.1 26.5  
SOUTHERN CAL Arizona St. 15.4 16.5  
Utah WASHINGTON 1.0 -6.0  
Wyoming NEW MEXICO 1.0 -7.0  
San Jose St. NEW MEXICO ST. 21.2 25.5  
Oregon CALIFORNIA 23.9 26.5  
OKLAHOMA ST. West Virginia 14.9 12.0  
Kansas St. T C U 15.6 16.5  
Cincinnati TEMPLE 12.3 10.5  
TENNESSEE Missouri 3.0 2.0  
TEXAS Iowa St. 9.2 10.0  
SAN DIEGO ST. Air Force 13.4 18.5  
S M U Southern Miss. 13.8 20.0  
Marshall U A B 3.3 1.5  
Tulsa HOUSTON 6.9 12.0  
U n l v COLORADO ST. 1.2 0.5  
Boise St. HAWAII 25.2 25.5  
U c l a WASHINGTON ST. 18.1 20.5  
Central Florida U T E P 15.5 18.5  
ARIZONA Colorado 33.4 19.0  
SOUTH CAROLINA Arkansas 22.6 17.0  
TEXAS TECH Kansas 20.7 20.5  
Louisiana Tech TEXAS ST. 25.6 20.0  
OKLAHOMA Baylor 21.6 19.0  
MEMPHIS Tulane 0.6 -4.0  
STANFORD Oregon St. 7.4 12.5  
L S U Mississippi St. 20.1 14.5  
Fresno St. NEVADA 3.6 3.5  
WESTERN KENTUCKY Florida Atlantic 20.2 17.0  
Navy TROY 1.8 9.0  
NORTH TEXAS South Alabama 14.8 5.5  
FLORIDA UL-Lafayette 31.5 32.5  

 

Let’s Go Bowling

As of today, we project exactly 70 teams to finish bowl eligible, which is the exact number needed to fill 35 bowl games.  We project that 11 of these bowl bids will go to at-large teams needed to fill spots not provided by the conference tie-ins.

 

Because of this, two conferences should see a bonanza of bowl invitations.  The Mid-American Conference and the Sunbelt Conference are projected to provide seven additional teams to the bowls.  When you add the bowl tie-ins from those two leagues, it brings the total to 12 invited teams (seven from the MAC and five from the SBC).  That means that better than one out of every six bowl invitations will go to members from one of these conferences.

 

Our bowl projections are always different from others you may find online.  We don’t just project the bowls based on current standings or even projected standings.  We look at the political, geographical, and historical aspects and then search for additional evidence that might give us a clue or two.

 

For instance, this year we will rely more on geographical aspects when the opportunity exists to favor one team over another based on proximity to the host city.  It is our opinion that bowls would rather fill their stands with local teams or teams within driving distance of the city than teams that would fill hotel rooms. 

 

For instance, the WAC has just one bowl tie-in—the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl goes to the league champion.  As of this writing, we project Louisiana Tech to win out and finish 11-1.  However, we see an opportunity to put more seats in stadiums and project the folks in Boise, Idaho, to take Utah State.  That would leave La. Tech to fill an at-large spot in the Independence Bowl.

 

The BCS Bowls

As of today, we have Alabama, Kansas State, Oregon, and Notre Dame finishing undefeated.  If this happens, Alabama and Kansas State will be facing off for the national championship.

 

We have Florida State, Louisville, and Nebraska joining the quartet above as automatic qualifiers, which leaves three teams to fill at-large spots in BCS Bowls.  Since Boise State lost and fell out of contention, we are going with Clemson, Oklahoma, and LSU to be those three teams.  The SEC could send Georgia or Florida, but we believe the Sugar Bowl will want LSU instead.

 

Oregon and Nebraska would be contractually bound for the Rose Bowl, and Florida State would go to the Orange Bowl.  Here is how we see the rest of the BCS Bowls to pan out.

 

The National Championship Game would pit Alabama and Kansas State.  That means the Sugar Bowl would get first choice to select a team, and the Fiesta Bowl would get the second choice.  In 2012-13, the order of picking teams would then go Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.

 

This is where we believe the Sugar Bowl would take LSU to guarantee a sold out stadium in New Orleans.  The Fiesta Bowl would then bypass a Big 12 team with Notre Dame available.  The Fiesta Bowl would then choose again, but they would be forced to bypass Oklahoma because they have already played the Fighting Irish.  This would leave them with Clemson.  The Sugar Bowl would then take Oklahoma, which means they would be marrying the Big 12 and SEC just after the two leagues settled on the Sugar Bowl for the future.  That leaves Louisville for the Orange Bowl.

 

Here is our list in full.

 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC # 4/5 Nevada Pac12 #7 / WAC Arizona
Famous Idaho Potato MAC #3 Northern Illinois WAC #1/2 Utah St.
Poinsettia MWC #2 Fresno St. BYU/WAC B Y U
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 (UL-Lafayette) C-USA #2-5 (4) East Carolina
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 Arkansas St. C-USA #2-5 (5) (San Jose St.)
MAACO MWC #1 Boise St. Pac 12 #5 U C L A
Hawaii MWC #3/Hawaii San Diego St. C-USA #2-5 (2) Tulsa
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 (Western Ky.) MAC #1 Kent St.
Military ACC #8 (Bowling Green) Army/CUSA (Arizona St.)
Belk ACC #5 Duke Big East #3 Rutgers
Holiday Pac 12 #3 Washington Big 12 #5 Oklahoma St.
Independence ACC #6/7 (7) (Ball St.) SEC #10 (La. Tech)
Russell Athletic Big East #2 Cincinnati ACC #3 North Carolina St.
Meineke Car Care of Texas Big 12 #6 T C U Big 10 #6 Minnesota
Armed Forces C-USA #3 S M U MWC #4-5 Air Force
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 12 #6 Oregon St. Navy/ACC Navy
Pinstripe Big East #4 Pittsburgh Big 12 #7 Iowa St.
Alamo Big 12 #3 Texas Tech Pac 12 #2 Stanford
Buffalo Wild Wings Big 12 #4 West Virginia Big 10 #4 or 5 Northwestern
Music City SEC # 7 Vanderbilt ACC #6 (Middle Tennessee)
Sun ACC #4 Virginia Tech Pac 12 #4 Southern Cal
Liberty SEC#8-9/BigEast Ole Miss C-USA #1 Central Fla.
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 South Carolina ACC #2 Miami-Fla
Heart of Dallas Big 10 #7 (Western Mich.) Big 12 #8 (Utah)
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan St. SEC #6 Mississippi St.
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan SEC #2 Georgia
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Florida Big 10 #3 Wisconsin
Rose BCS Pac12 Oregon BCS Big 10 Nebraska
Orange BCS ACC Florida St. BCS At-Large Louisville
Sugar BCS SEC L S U BCS At-Large Oklahoma
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Notre Dame BCS At-Large Clemson
Cotton Big 12 #2 Texas SEC #3 or 4 Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Big East#5/CUSA (Ohio U) SEC #8 or 9 Tennessee
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 UL-Monroe MAC #2 Toledo
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Alabama *** BCS #2 *** Kansas St.

 

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