| Home | Visitor | Spread |
| Kansas St. | Florida Atlantic | 0.8 |
| Connecticut | Gonzaga | 1.2 |
Bracketnomics Comparisons
| Stat | SDSU | Creighton |
| O-RTG | 70 | 22 |
| D-RTG | 4 | 14 |
| SOS | 57.9 | 59.3 |
| 3-Pt | 34.9 | 35.8 |
| O-Reb | 32.0 | 25.2 |
| 2PT%D | 49.3 | 45.9 |
| FTR | 33.3 | 28.6 |
| R+T Rate | 9.0 | 0.1 |
| Old R+T | 13.7 | 8.6 |
| Marg | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| Win Strk | 7 & 6 | 8 & 6 |
| Pre25 | YES | YES |
| Champ | YES | No |
| Coach Exp | 3: 0-3 | 10: 1S16 |
| 3 Upper | YES | NO |
| F/C 20-12 | NO | YES |
| DBLFIG | 1 | 5 |
| OReb | 32.0 | 25.2 |
| OStl | 10.4 | 7.2 |
| OTurn | 15.1 | 14.9 |
| DReb | 25.7 | 23.2 |
| DStl | 9.3 | 8.6 |
| DTurn | 17.2 | 12.4 |
| Reb Marg | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Stl/G | 7.0 | 5.1 |
| D Stl | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| TO Marg | 1.3 | -1.8 |
Creighton is the slight favorite in this criteria, but it isn’t by much. If not for overall strength of schedule, the Aztecs would have the advantage due to better steal rate and turnover rate, the two criteria that are showing up to be more important this year than an average year. SDSU beat Alabama, because they jumped the passing lanes and won the R+T battle with ease.
| Stat | FAU | Kansas St. |
| O-RTG | 26 | 35 |
| D-RTG | 29 | 27 |
| SOS | 50.5 | 58.5 |
| 3-Pt | 36.5 | 34.0 |
| O-Reb | 31.4 | 30.4 |
| 2PT%D | 44.7 | 49.1 |
| FTR | 28.9 | 36.2 |
| R+T Rate | 8.7 | 1.6 |
| Old R+T | 16.0 | 6.4 |
| Marg | 13.2 | 6.6 |
| Win Strk | 20 & 10 | 9 & 6 |
| Pre25 | NO | NO |
| Champ | YES | No |
| Coach Exp | 0 | 0 |
| 3 Upper | NO | YES |
| F/C 20-12 | NO | YES |
| DBLFIG | 3 | 3 |
| OReb | 31.4 | 30.4 |
| OStl | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| OTurn | 14.5 | 17.0 |
| DReb | 25.1 | 29.9 |
| DStl | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| DTurn | 15.9 | 18.0 |
| Reb Marg | 5.7 | 1.4 |
| Stl/G | 6.5 | 7.9 |
| D Stl | 5.6 | 7.3 |
| TO Marg | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Florida Atlantic overcame Tennessee’s inside advantage in the Sweet 16, but we have seen the Vols’ inconsistent play all year and don’t think it was entirely the Owls’ defense that eliminated Tennessee’s biggest advantage. Kansas State also has the inside advantage, by even more than that enjoyed by UT. This looks like the end of a great mid-major run for FAU, as Kansas State has enough advantage here to make their first Final Four since Tex Winter and his triple post offense guided the Wildcats to the 1964 Final Four.
| Stat | Miami | Texas |
| O-RTG | 6 | 15 |
| D-RTG | 104 | 10 |
| SOS | 56.1 | 60.0 |
| 3-Pt | 37.0 | 34.5 |
| O-Reb | 31.9 | 28.2 |
| 2PT%D | 51.5 | 47.3 |
| FTR | 30.2 | 30.7 |
| R+T Rate | 6.1 | 3.7 |
| Old R+T | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| Marg | 7.7 | 10.6 |
| Win Strk | 9 & 7 | 7 & 6 |
| Pre25 | NO | YES |
| Champ | Co | YES |
| Coach Exp | 10 & 1FF | 0 |
| 3 Upper | NO | YES |
| F/C 20-12 | NO | NO |
| DBLFIG | 4 | 4 |
| OReb | 31.9 | 28.2 |
| OStl | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| OTurn | 14.0 | 14.3 |
| DReb | 28.4 | 29.1 |
| DStl | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| DTurn | 15.7 | 19.5 |
| Reb Marg | 3.0 | -0.3 |
| Stl/G | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| D Stl | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| TO Marg | 1.3 | 4.3 |
On paper, this is an exciting tossup that could go down to the last minute. However, there is a huge question mark in this game. Texas may not have the services of 6 foot 9 inch forward Dylan Disu, who has been the Longhorns’ best player down the stretch. They dismissed Xavier with Disu playing less than a minute before further injuring his leg.
If Disu cannot play, Miami can ramp up the tempo in this game and wear Texas down. Without Disu, Texas has a major liability on the glass, and they will have to force a lot of turnovers to make up for Miami’s potential extra shot attempts.
Jim Larranaga has taken a team to the Final Four once before, and he did so with a low major team beating the overall number one seed to get there. Miami made it this far last year. It looks favorable for Hurricane Warnings to go up in Houston next week.
| Stat | Connecticut | Gonzaga |
| O-RTG | 3 | 1 |
| D-RTG | 13 | 73 |
| SOS | 58.5 | 57.5 |
| 3-Pt | 36.4 | 38.6 |
| O-Reb | 38.9 | 31.8 |
| 2PT%D | 45.0 | 50.3 |
| FTR | 30.9 | 33.6 |
| R+T Rate | 15.0 | 11.4 |
| Old R+T | 21.2 | 18.8 |
| Marg | 14.0 | 13.9 |
| Win Strk | 14 & 6 | 12 & 11 |
| Pre25 | NO | YES |
| Champ | No | YES |
| Coach Exp | 4: 0-4 | 22 & 2FF |
| 3 Upper | NO | YES |
| F/C 20-12 | YES | YES |
| DBLFIG | 3 | 4 |
| OReb | 38.9 | 31.8 |
| OStl | 9.3 | 10.2 |
| OTurn | 15.9 | 13.1 |
| DReb | 25.9 | 25.0 |
| DStl | 9.8 | 7.3 |
| DTurn | 16.6 | 16.5 |
| Reb Marg | 9.4 | 5.9 |
| Stl/G | 6.4 | 7.4 |
| D Stl | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| TO Marg | -0.1 | 2.6 |
As far as the Bracketnomics are concerned, this may be the real National Championship Game. The two best offenses left in the field and two of the three best overall face off. But, UConn also has a top 20 defense, which is how most National Champions look–top 10 offense and top 20 defense.
Still, this game is not a slam dunk easy win for UConn. Gonzaga has a coach with a lot more tournament experience with two recent Final Fours and with players that have played in the National Championship on this roster. Gonzaga was a pre-season top 25 team, while the Huskies were not, and almost every past national champion was ranked in the pre-season.
The one stat that really concerns us is the turnover margin. As we told you above, turnover margin and steals have been considerably more important this year than an average year. UConn has a negative turnover margin and has a propensity to be a little too gracious throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys. If Gonzaga can get 8 or more steals and force 14 or more turnovers in this game, they will likely win. If the Huskies can limit Bulldog steals to 6 or less, and they commit 12 or fewer turnovers, they will win. If it’s somewhere in between, this game could come down to a last second shot or even overtime.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 