The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 25, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Saturday, March 25, 2023

Kansas St.Florida Atlantic0.8

Bracketnomics Comparisons

R+T Rate9.00.1
Old R+T13.78.6
Win Strk7 & 68 & 6
Coach Exp3: 0-310: 1S16
3 UpperYESNO
F/C 20-12NOYES
Reb Marg4.63.9
D Stl6.36.0
TO Marg1.3-1.8

Creighton is the slight favorite in this criteria, but it isn’t by much. If not for overall strength of schedule, the Aztecs would have the advantage due to better steal rate and turnover rate, the two criteria that are showing up to be more important this year than an average year. SDSU beat Alabama, because they jumped the passing lanes and won the R+T battle with ease.

StatFAUKansas St.
R+T Rate8.71.6
Old R+T16.06.4
Win Strk20 & 109 & 6
Coach Exp00
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12NOYES
Reb Marg5.71.4
D Stl5.67.3
TO Marg0.90.9

Florida Atlantic overcame Tennessee’s inside advantage in the Sweet 16, but we have seen the Vols’ inconsistent play all year and don’t think it was entirely the Owls’ defense that eliminated Tennessee’s biggest advantage. Kansas State also has the inside advantage, by even more than that enjoyed by UT. This looks like the end of a great mid-major run for FAU, as Kansas State has enough advantage here to make their first Final Four since Tex Winter and his triple post offense guided the Wildcats to the 1964 Final Four.

R+T Rate6.13.7
Old R+T11.08.0
Win Strk9 & 77 & 6
Coach Exp10 & 1FF0
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12NONO
Reb Marg3.0-0.3
D Stl5.95.7
TO Marg1.34.3

On paper, this is an exciting tossup that could go down to the last minute. However, there is a huge question mark in this game. Texas may not have the services of 6 foot 9 inch forward Dylan Disu, who has been the Longhorns’ best player down the stretch. They dismissed Xavier with Disu playing less than a minute before further injuring his leg.

If Disu cannot play, Miami can ramp up the tempo in this game and wear Texas down. Without Disu, Texas has a major liability on the glass, and they will have to force a lot of turnovers to make up for Miami’s potential extra shot attempts.

Jim Larranaga has taken a team to the Final Four once before, and he did so with a low major team beating the overall number one seed to get there. Miami made it this far last year. It looks favorable for Hurricane Warnings to go up in Houston next week.

R+T Rate15.011.4
Old R+T21.218.8
Win Strk14 & 612 & 11
Coach Exp4: 0-422 & 2FF
3 UpperNOYES
Reb Marg9.45.9
D Stl6.75.3
TO Marg-0.12.6

As far as the Bracketnomics are concerned, this may be the real National Championship Game. The two best offenses left in the field and two of the three best overall face off. But, UConn also has a top 20 defense, which is how most National Champions look–top 10 offense and top 20 defense.

Still, this game is not a slam dunk easy win for UConn. Gonzaga has a coach with a lot more tournament experience with two recent Final Fours and with players that have played in the National Championship on this roster. Gonzaga was a pre-season top 25 team, while the Huskies were not, and almost every past national champion was ranked in the pre-season.

The one stat that really concerns us is the turnover margin. As we told you above, turnover margin and steals have been considerably more important this year than an average year. UConn has a negative turnover margin and has a propensity to be a little too gracious throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys. If Gonzaga can get 8 or more steals and force 14 or more turnovers in this game, they will likely win. If the Huskies can limit Bulldog steals to 6 or less, and they commit 12 or fewer turnovers, they will win. If it’s somewhere in between, this game could come down to a last second shot or even overtime.

March 23, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Thursday, March 23, 2023

Kansas St.Michigan St.0.7
TennesseeFlorida Atlantic5.8

March 1, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am

Wednesday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Cal BaptistUT-Rio Grande Valley7.9
DavidsonGeorge Washington7.1
East CarolinaTulane-5.8
Fairleigh DickinsonSt. Francis (NY)6.9
George MasonFordham3.3
GonzagaChicago St.26.3
High PointCharleston Southern0.1
Houston ChristianSoutheastern Louisiana-4.7
Kansas St.Oklahoma6.8
Loyola (Chi)Rhode Island2.0
McNeese St.New Orleans3.8
MerrimackLong Island14.7
Nicholls St.Lamar12.5
NorthwesternPenn St.3.7
Northwestern St.Incarnate Word11.5
Notre DamePittsburgh-4.7
Ohio St.Maryland-1.1
Sacred HeartWagner0.0
Saint Joseph’sRichmond-0.2
SIU EdwardsvilleSouthern Indiana0.9
South FloridaTulsa12.4
Southeast Missouri St.Lindenwood4.9
Southern UtahGrand Canyon3.9
St. Francis (PA)Central Connecticut St.2.6
Stephen F. AustinSam Houston St.-1.8
Texas A&M-CommerceTexas A&M-CC2.5
UNLVUtah St.-1.9
Utah TechSeattle-0.6
Utah ValleyUT Arlington12.1

Wednesday’s Conference Tournament Schedule

Big South Conference — Charlotte

1st Round (ESPN+)

#8 High Point (14-16) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20) 6 PM EST

#7 Campbell (13-17) vs. #10 Presbyterian (5-26) 8 PM EST

Northeast Conference — Higher Seed Hosts All Games

Quarterfinals ( (All Games at 7 PM EST)

#8 Long Island (3-25) at #1 Merrimack (15-16) ^

#7 St. Francis (NY) (14-15) at #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14)

#6 Central Connecticut St. (10-21) at #3 St. Francis (PA) (12-17)

#5 Sacred Heart (15-16) at #4 Wagner (15-12)

^ Merrimack is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. If the Warriors win the NEC Tournament, Fairleigh Dickinson will received the automatic bid.

Ohio Valley Conference — Evansville, IN

1st Round (ESPN+)

#5 Southeast Missouri St. (15-16) vs. #8 Lindenwood (11-20) 7:30 PM EST

#6 SIU Edwardsville (18-13) vs. #7 Southern Indiana (16-15) 10 PM EST

February 21, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Air ForceFresno St.2.5
Ball St.Kent St.-4.9
BuffaloCentral Michigan9.8
Eastern MichiganWestern Michigan1.6
Kansas St.Baylor0.3
Miami (O)Bowling Green1.4
Michigan St.Indiana0.5
MissouriMississippi St.1.7
Missouri St.Murray St.5.3
NevadaSan Jose St.10.0
OhioNorthern Illinois9.4
OklahomaTexas Tech2.2
PittsburghGeorgia Tech11.8
RichmondSaint Louis-1.5
Robert MorrisYoungstown St.-5.4
Saint Joseph’sVCU-5.1
San Diego St.Colorado St.11.8
TexasIowa St.5.7
Texas A&MTennessee-3.2
TulsaEast Carolina-2.1
Virginia TechMiami (Fla)-0.4
WyomingUtah St.-6.7

January 7, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 7, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
Abilene ChristianSouthern Utah0.3
Alcorn St.Alabama A&M5.6
ArizonaWashington St.13.1
Arkansas Pine BluffTexas Southern-5.3
Austin PeayCentral Arkansas8.6
BaylorKansas St.5.0
BelmontMissouri St.0.6
Boise St.Utah St.-0.4
Boston CollegeDuke-10.3
Bowling GreenOhio-3.4
BuffaloNorthern Illinois9.7
Cal PolyUC Santa Barbara-7.1
Cal St. FullertonHawaii-2.0
Cleveland St.Green Bay15.1
ColoradoOregon St.16.0
Colorado St.Fresno St.4.6
Coppin St.South Carolina St.6.5
DrakeMurray St.7.3
East Tennessee St.Furman-5.9
Eastern MichiganCentral Michigan-1.2
Eastern WashingtonSacramento St.5.5
EvansvilleIllinois St.-2.8
Fairleigh DickinsonLong Island11.4
Florida AtlanticCharlotte9.1
Florida Gulf CoastNorth Florida8.8
Florida Int’l.UAB-13.8
Florida St.Georgia Tech0.6
FordhamSaint Joseph’s4.2
Gardner WebbRadford4.6
George MasonLoyola (Chi.)7.1
George WashingtonMassachusetts-1.6
Georgia SouthernOld Dominion0.3
GramblingBethune Cookman12.7
HowardDelaware St.11.6
IdahoPortland St.-1.3
Incarnate WordTexas A&M CC-8.9
Indiana St.Illinois Chicago12.5
Jackson St.Alabama St.5.7
Jacksonville St.Bellarmine0.9
James MadisonAppalachian St.12.7
La SalleRhode Island0.5
LindenwoodTennessee St.-1.0
Little RockSoutheast Missouri St.-2.7
LouisianaGeorgia St.8.5
Louisiana MonroeSouthern Miss.-7.1
Louisiana TechUTEP6.6
LouisvilleWake Forest-8.8
Loyola MarymountSan Francisco2.1
MarshallCoastal Carolina11.7
McNeese St.Texas A&M-Commerce0.2
MemphisEast Carolina15.2
MerrimackSt. Francis NY3.4
Miami (O)Kent St.-13.2
Michigan St.Michigan3.6
Middle TennesseeNorth Texas-3.6
Mississippi St.Mississippi4.9
Mississippi Valley St.Prairie View-7.9
Morehead St.Eastern Illinois8.2
Morgan St.North Carolina Central-0.9
New MexicoUNLV4.9
New Mexico St.Cal Baptist4.5
New OrleansHouston Christian4.2
Norfolk St.Maryland Eastern Shore7.5
Norhtern IowaSouthern Illinois-1.9
North AlabamaStetson-2.2
North CarolinaNotre Dame13.5
North Carolina A&TUNC Wilmington-7.0
North DakotaSouth Dakota St.-5.4
North Dakota St.South Dakota2.5
Northern ArizonaMontana St.-5.9
Northern ColoradoMontana-1.4
Northwestern St.Nicholls St.-0.7
Oklahoma St.Texas-0.6
Oral RobertsUMKC14.2
PresbyterianCharleston Southern1.5
ProvidenceSt. John’s7.0
Purdue Ft. WayneMilwaukee7.6
QueensKennesaw St.3.5
Sacred HeartHartford11.5
Saint LouisSt. Bonaventure8.1
Saint Mary’sPortland15.3
Sam Houston St.Tarleton St.10.2
San DiegoBYU-4.7
San Jose St.Nevada-2.2
Santa ClaraGonzaga-8.0
Seton HallButler3.8
South AlabamaTexas St.4.7
South CarolinaTennessee-20.4
Southeastern LouisianaLamar13.6
SouthernFlorida A&M14.4
Southern IndianaSIU Edwardsville-1.2
St. ThomasOmaha8.2
Stephen F. AustinGrand Canyon-1.4
StonehillCentral Connecticut St.3.2
Stony BrookTowson-6.7
TCUIowa St.3.9
Texas A&MLSU3.4
Texas TechOklahoma-16.8
TroyArkansas St.12.4
UC DavisCal St. Bakersfield7.4
UC IrvineLong Beach St.8.3
UC RiversideCal St. Northridge10.4
UNC AshevilleCampbell5.7
UNC GreensboroSamford4.9
USC UpstateHigh Point-0.9
UT ArlingtonSeattle-3.7
UT MartinTennessee Tech5.6
UT Rio Grande ValleyUtah Valley-10.2
UTSAWestern Kentucky-7.0
Virginia TechNorth Carolina St.3.1
WagnerSt. Francis PA6.0
Weber St.Idaho St.6.0
West VirginiaKansas-1.4
Western CarolinaMercer-0.6
Western IllinoisDenver1.6
William & MaryHofstra-6.5
WoffordThe Citadel9.0
WyomingSan Diego St-7.7
Youngstown St.IUPUI23.0

December 1, 2022

PiRate Picks For December 2-3, 2022

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am

We here at the PiRate Ratings believe like Ted Williams that you don’t sit out the final day of the season to protect a .400 average. We could sit out this final weekend of the regular season, not including Army-Navy next week, and be guaranteed our 18th winning season in the last 23 years, albeit imaginary revenue. We are showing a small 3.5% profit for the season, and we could have sat this week out to guarantee the winning year. We could have merely played one or two games, for going 0-2 would still mean we would have a winning season.

Just like The Splendid Splinter, we are in the lineup and taking our cuts this week with five selections. If we can’t go at least 2-3, we don’t deserve to consider it 18 out of 23. We’re attacking this Championship Week like it’s an opportunity to go from .400 to .406.

Our selections this week include three games straight up against the spread and two Money Line Parlays. We are almost always looking for underdogs that we find undervalued to win and like to go with short underdogs. We tend to never play underdogs of more than two touchdowns. Yet, this week, we are going against our grain. We’re taking two short favorites and one heavy underdog to cover. As for the Money Line Parlays, there were limited choices, and it took a little extra work to come up with two parlays that paid out more than +120. Enjoy, but remember the most important advice you will ever read here–do not wager real money on these selections. We wager $0 in real money, and we know best the value of these selections.

Selection #1: USC -2 1/2 vs. Utah

A two-point conversion in Salt Lake City in October is all that separates USC and a 12-0 regular season. Utah’s home field advantage is worth a good 3 points or more, and this game is being played in Las Vegas. With a College Football Playoff berth on the line, we believe the Trojans could win this game by more than a touchdown.

Selection #2: TCU -2 1/2 vs. Kansas St.

Kansas State’s defense couldn’t stop TCU’s offense in October once the Horned Frogs trailed 28-10. TCU stormed back in the final two plus quarters, outscoring KSU 28-0. With a College Football Playoff on the line, we believe the Horned Frogs are peaking at the right time and sitting on a double-digit win. If so, Kansas State might be the weakest Sugar Bowl team in decades.

Selection #3: LSU +18 1/2 vs. Georgia

We don’t see LSU pulling off an incredible upset to clinch a Sugar Bowl bid, and the defending national champions still look like the prohibitive favorite to win back-to-back titles. However, we have this suspicion that LSU is going to make this game a lot closer than people expect. When a 38-21 game wins this wager (or 45-28 or 28-10), we’ll take a Brian Kelly team to cover.

Selection #4: Money Line Parlay 3 games @ +153.47

Buffalo over Akron

UTSA over North Texas

Boise St. over Fresno St.

Selection #5: Money Line Parlay 3 games @ +121.02

Troy over Coastal Carolina

Tulane over Central Florida

Michigan over Purdue

September 8, 2022

PiRate Picks For September 9-10, 2022

Last week, the most important part of our PiRate Picks publication was telling you that a broken clock is still correct twice a day. Please remember this, because we have experienced our broken clock accuracy up front this year. For the second week in a row, our selections went 3-0 to give us a 6-0 record to start the season. We know there are about 150-200 new visitors to this site since the 2021-22 College Football National Championship. Get this and get it good–we are not svengali’s. We are not Billy Walters. We aren’t even Brent Musberger and his incredible cast of handicappers. What are we? Really lucky and not much more than that.

Every week, we preface our selections by urging (begging) you not to wager real currency on the selections you read on this site. We know that there are a considerable number of professional speculators in the Nevada gold mines. We don’t have to tell you what to do with your occupation. It’s Joe Tackletrap in Wichita Falls, Texas, who makes $40,000 a year working himself silly that can ill afford to lose $500 that we have concerns about losing $500 because he wagered $100 each on five selections and lost them all, as he saw his mortgage payment money taken away.

Last week, we casually mentioned that there were some people in Nevada that we had information that they were following this site. Wow! We heard from six different people, two of whom represent a consortium of others, telling us they follow this site. And, they were not all from Las Vegas. We have to give some love to the biggest little city in America–Reno. There’s somebody there that sent us a little note.

For one paragraph, let’s pretend that we really did speculate these first two weeks of the football season, wagering $100 ($110) on margins and totals and $100 on the money line parlay. With the 6-0 record, including a parlay that paid back $241.77, our pretend starting bank account of $1,000 would now be worth $1,641.77. Making a 64% profit in two weeks in real life would quickly lead us to cash out and play no more games. That would be our Holiday Fund for this year.

What are the chances that our picks will be perfect again this week? The prior best first three week start we have ever had was a 9-3-1 start to the 2008 season. In most years, September is our worst month, with a big turnaround in October. Thus, we still do not have much confidence in our September picks. It’s merely the law of averages giving us a positive outlier.

Now that we have adequately warned you, we present our picks for this week. We are going with five selections.

Selection #1: Missouri and Kansas State UNDER 56 1/2

Our belief here is that the Wildcats will play a bit conservatively in the first half trying to keep the ball away from the Tiger offense, as Coach Chris Kleiman is a defense first leader. Missouri scored 52 points against a weak Louisiana Tech defense, and our belief is that the totals line might be a tad too high due to this. KSU’s defense pitched a shutout over FCS South Dakota. The Coyotes are not the top team in the Mount Rushmore state, but their offense is consistent. We see this game as a 28-20 win for the Wildcats. That gives us an extra touchdown to be wrong and still be right.

Selection #2: Iowa and Iowa State OVER 39 1/2

Iowa failed to reach the end zone against South Dakota State, winning 7-3 on a field goal and two safeties. The public looked at a Big Ten team’s offense failing to score on an FCS opponent and didn’t realize two important factors. First, South Dakota State is probably better than 60-75 FBS teams. Second, a college football team improves the most during a season in the practices between game one and game two. You can bet that this week in Iowa City, the offensive units in Hawkeye Land have had just about enough of hearing how lame they were in the opener. Over in Ames, Iowa State’s offense is far superior to its defense. Giving up 10 points to SEMO is nothing like Iowa’s holding SDSU to 3. SEMO is a mediocre Ohio Valley Conference team. Iowa will unleash its offense this week and top 20 points. Our hope is that Iowa State will respond in kind and make this a 24-21 game, topping 39 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Florida and Kentucky OVER 52 1/2

Florida came through for us last week, winning as an underdog when we believed the wrong team was favored. Kentucky overcame a slow start and eventually slaughtered a decent but not spectacular Miami of Ohio team. We believe that the Florida team that almost beat Alabama in 2021 before the team quit on former coach Dan Mullen has returned. If they could score 29 on Alabama last year and 29 on a tough Utah defense in week one, the Gators should put the chomp on Kentucky’s defense for more than 35 points. Can Kentucky’s offense produce 17 points or more? We think they Wildcats will top 20 points, and thus we believe the total in this game will top 56.

Selection #4: Arizona +11 1/2 vs. Mississippi State

This game is a tad different from how we normally play home underdogs. We tend to like our home dogs to get 1 to 7 points. We are making an exception here because it is our belief that few too people saw how the Wildcats went to San Diego State on the Christening of their new stadium and spoiled the party for the home team. We have been keeping our eyes on Coach Jedd Fisch since his arrival in Tucson. It is our beliefe that ‘Zona may have found their football equivalent of Lute Olson. His pedigree is about as incredible as a long-time assistant coach can own. Going up against a Mike Leach-coached team, this late night desert dogfight is going to give us reason to brew an evening pot of coffee. This could be the most entertaining game of Week Two, and we expect the home team to be in it for the entire 60 minutes. What’s great about this selection is that the superior SEC is having to play at the Pac-12 opponent’s home field rather than watch the Pac-12 team make the 2,000+ mile trip to the Southeast. Mississippi State could win this game 31-21, 34-24, 38-28, 35-24, 38-27 and still not cover. We tend to believe that this game will be a 3 to 7 point game in either direction.

Selection #5: Money Line Parlay at +172.97

Central Florida over Louisville

Arkansas over South Carolina

Florida over Kentucky

Louisville looked terrible in a blowout loss at Syracuse and did not look ready to play. Coach Scott Satterfield is sitting on a scorching hot seat, as he has had UL detractors since his hiring. At the same time, Gus Malzahn has quickly become a favored coach in Orlando, and Central Florida looks like a real contender for the American Athletic Conference Championship. In addition, UCF has had this game circled on their schedule and calendar. UL won this game on a pick six last year. The Cardinals are headed to an ambush in Orlando.

The Arkansas-South Carolina game should be quite interesting as two very good SEC teams face off in Fayetteville. We were a bit concerned with Spencer Rattler’s performance against Georgia State, as it was a little too similar to the performances he turned in at Oklahoma, which cost him his starting spot. Arkansas has a much better pass rush and secondary than Georgia State, and their offense at times pushed Cincinnati’s defense around. We see Pig Sooey winning by 10-14 points if not more.

Kentucky has defeated Florida twice in four years, after going mutiple decades without a win over the Gators. Billy Napier has quickly become a favorite in the Swamp almost on par with Steve Spurrier. He probably is the most like former Gator coaches Ray Graves and Doug Dickey than Spurrier or any coaches since. The Gators will be prepared and ready to play every week. Napier is part of both the Nick Saben and Dabo Swinney coaching trees. He knows how to run a program, and his year at Louisiana proved it. Kentucky and coach Mark Stoops are not exactly chopped liver. The Wildcats have a potent team with an NFL prospect under center. Will Levis could be a top three pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kentucky could be the second best team in the SEC East, but they could be the third or fourth best too. We believe that the Gators will come into this game not resting on their laurels after pulling off the biggest win of Week One. Napier won’t let them get swollen heads. We’re going with Florida in a thriller, and we see the Gators winning 38-28.

August 17, 2022

Big 12 Preview

This will be the final year that the Big 12 will have 10 teams. Next year, Central Florida, Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU will join the league, and for one to two years, the league will have 14 teams. Texas and Oklahoma are committed for now to remain in the Big 12 through the 2024 season. Things could change, as new league Commissioner Brett Yormark has indicated that he would be fine finding a win-win situation that would allow the Sooners and Longhorns to leave for the SEC before their scheduled July 1, 2025 date.

2022 expects to be an interesting year in the Big 12. Oklahoma welcomes a new head coach in Brent Venables, the former defensive coordinator at Clemson. There was a lot of player movement in Norman when former coach Lincoln Riley bolted for USC, but Venables has a lot of depth and talent remaining. Oklahoma is still the team to beat.

Rival Oklahoma State should see marked improvement on the defensive side, and the Cowboys must be considered the leading contender to earn the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas State figure to fight it out in the next tier with TCU just behind. These seven teams should all make bowl games. The bottom three could potentially tie for last at 1-8. Texas Tech has a lot of talent but a lot of holes. West Virginia is at a crossroads. Kansas is still the least talented team in the league, but second year coach Lance Leipold has the Jayhawks trending upward.

Preseason PiRate Ratings

Oklahoma St.118.2116.3117.6117.4
Kansas St.111.1109.7109.9110.2
Iowa St.108.6108.5108.8108.6
T C U108.8107.2107.2107.7
Texas Tech107.0105.5107.4106.6
West Virginia103.7103.5102.4103.2

Big 12110.1108.9109.2109.4

Preseason Big 12 Official Media Poll

#Team1st PlaceOverall
3Oklahoma St.9342
5Kansas St.0261
6Iowa St.1180
8West Virginia0147
9Texas Tech0119

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

Oklahoma St.8-111-2
Kansas St.4-57-5
Iowa St.4-56-6
Texas Tech2-74-8
West Virginia1-82-10

November 11, 2021

PiRate Picks–November 11-13, 2021

We almost made it, but a small miss is as good as a long mile. Last week, with a fourth consecutive winning week looking promising, a couple of fourth quarters went against us, and alas we suffered a tiny loss of 0.9%, or less than $5 on $500 invested in imaginary currency.

For the year, our net profit is now 4.88%, so we are still in the black, just barely. This week, we delayed by a day putting this feature online. The reason is that we did not like the overall numbers and wanted the betting public to help us out by moving the money lines just enough for our program to show the parlays to have an edge by finding the best lines. After looking at 11 different books, we still could only find three wagers to play. Four more were monitored closely and might have eventually moved to make them playable, but we like to publish this before Noon on Thursday, and the movements aren’t moving this morning (Thursday at 9:30 AM EST).

These next two weeks historically have seen monumental upsets in college football when teams that appear to be superior to the opponents they are playing have hidden depth issues. It’s not just players that don’t dress out. By this point in the schedule most college teams have 10-20 players that are playing with minor injuries and are not the same as they were four weeks ago. We look for teams that win consistently through the first week in November but tend to lose power ratings while winning, because instead of producing a statistics box that looks like a 20-point win, they produce a statistics box of 15-17 points, and then 10-14 points. We do not update our ratings by final score. We look at the statistics and make a score adjustment based on the domination or lack thereof and then update. A team that wins by 28 points and is out-gained by 50 yards where the opponent lost fumbles in the Red Zone may actually receive credit for a 14-point “effective win.” A team that wins by 11 points but ends the game at the opponent’s five yard line and chooses to take a knee may receive credit for an 18-point effective win.

You will also notice that since early in the season, we have stopped playing NFL parlays in this feature. The variance in the games is making it impossible for our method to isolate on enough games to make a favorable parlay. We think there are two reasons for this. First, even though there are lousy teams like Detroit, there are no dominant teams that can be counted on to win when they are favored by less than a touchdown. Second, now that many millions more people can legally wager, the odds no longer move by large enough amounts to create favorable odds. There are 60+ college games to find favorable numbers, and the public may not find a Mountain West Conference game worth much, while we do. There are 13-16 NFL games per week, and even Detroit, San Francisco, and Miami get heavy action. We’d like to play three underdogs this week, but the numbers are not favorable according to our program.

Here are our three selections for this week. Remember, we never wager real money on these picks. If we don’t, do you think you should?

Must WinOpponent
East CarolinaMemphis

Must WinOpponent
Kansas St.West Virginia
Air ForceColorado St.
Oklahoma St.TCU

Must WinOpponent
OregonWashington St.

October 27, 2021

PiRate Picks–October 28-30, 2021

Back To Back Winning Weeks

Usually, the middle of October to the middle of November has been the period where our college football parlay picks have made their move into positive territory, and this year has been another example of that. After going north and south of the break-even line, in the last two weeks, a couple of big wins with fat payouts has taken our imaginary bankroll and turned it from red to black numbers.

We won two of the four parlays, one paying out at +187 and the other at +147.40. That comes to a 33.6% return on investment for the weekend. For the year, $3,500 in imaginary funds have been wagered with the sports books, and $3,704.28 in imaginary funds have been returned for an ROI of 5.84%.

Last week, we did not particularly like the games overall. It was difficult finding suitable parlays with payouts better than +120 that our “system” said had a better chance than the minimum needed to show a profit. The week before, too many games presented themselves as playable, and we had to limit the ones we wanted.

This week, it is somewhere in between. We selected to underdogs to win outright with rather fat payout odds. Our methods say these two games are virtual tossup games, so if we can get better than +120 on these games, we feel compelled to take the ‘dogs.

However, after the two straight up upset selections, we spent an extra hour plus trying to combine games into suitable odds while remaining confident that the teams would win.

So, without further adieu, here are our five selections for this week.

Note: Corrected Parlay after astute football guru Dustdog spotted an error.

Date:October 28-30


Must WinOpponent
UTEPFlorida Atlantic

Must WinOpponent
Michigan St.Michigan

Must WinOpponent
Notre DameNorth Carolina

Must WinOpponent
Central FloridaTemple
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