The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 24, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Games of Sat-Sun, March 24-25

Elite 8 Round

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Kansas St. Loyola-IL -0.1
Michigan Florida St. 3.0
Villanova Texas Tech 6.9
Kansas Duke -4.1

Elite 8 TV Schedule

Saturday, Mar 24, 2018
Time (EDT) Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
6:09 PM 9 Kansas St. 11 Loyola (Chi.) Atlanta TBS
8:49 PM 3 Michigan 9 Florida St. Los Angeles TBS
         
Sunday, Mar 25, 2018
Time (EDT) Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
2:20 PM 1 Villanova 3 Texas Tech Boston CBS
5:05 PM 1 Kansas 2 Duke Omaha CBS

Elite 8 Criteria Preview

Cinderella still remains in this tournament, even when there are just eight teams remaining.  Actually, there are two Cinderellas remaining, and one of them is now guaranteed to make the Final Four, as the two face off in Atlanta this evening.

The ninth-seeded Kansas State Wildcats keep defying the odds of 50+ years of past NCAA Tournament results.  Teams with terrible rebounding margins (Kansas State’s is -3.17 and with an R+T Rating [(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T,  where R is rebounding margin, S is steals per game, and T is turnover margin] just barely above zero just don’t dance this far into the marathon.

Loyola is bucking the trend only minimally.  While they participate in one of the top 12 conferences, thus a Power Conference, the Ramblers’ overall strength of schedule is below the par of Final Four teams.  Even past Final Four Cinderellas like Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, and George Mason had higher strengths of schedule, and former Missouri Valley Conference Final Four member Wichita State had a considerably higher strength of schedule when the Shockers made the national semifinals.

Florida State has tried on that slipper, but it is a tight fit.  The Seminoles are also a ninth seed, but it looks like the ACC teams were seeded a spot or two low this year.  The Seminoles have a brief history in the Final Four, getting to the title game, where they gave one of the best teams ever a real shock in the final, before losing to UCLA by five.  That was a Bruin team that outscored its opponents by a record 30+ points per game.

The Sunday schedule looks sane compared to the Saturday schedule.  Of the four teams playing on Sunday, the PiRate Rating Criteria correctly predicted three of the four to make it this far, and who knows what might have happened had Purdue’s Isaac Haas been able to play–it could have been a perfect four for four.

Nevertheless, Texas Tech is no slouch.  The Red Raiders play a difficult style of ball that is tough to match up against.  Coach Chris Beard takes from his past mentors, having been an assistant to Coach Bob Knight and Coach Tom Penders.  The Red Raiders play intelligently, and while they don’t run up and down the floor, they find ways to get open shots and to keep the opponent from getting too many on their side of the floor.

Villanova looks to be just as strong as the 2016 team that won the tournament.  The Wildcats have defeated teams playing different styles of ball, and they appear to be the most prepared to face whatever comes their way.  Looking at the criteria stats, there are three teams that we consider “complete teams,” in that they enjoy positive rebounding margins, turnover margins, average scoring margins, and they average more than 6 steals per game while giving up less than 6 steals per game.  Villanova is one of those three teams, and the Wildcats look to be the most complete of the three.

The Duke-Kansas match is the only one that the seed line got correct.  It is the only Elite 8 game that the PiRate Criteria also got correct.  The winner of this game will be crowned as the favorite to win it all, but if Villanova is there, it will set up a fantastic semifinal match, where the other side of the bracket will be overlooked.

Here are the Criteria Stats for the eight teams

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Duke Y 29-7 84-69 9.72 21.2 60.69
Florida St. Y 23-11 81-73 4.42 10.3 59.07
Kansas Y 30-7 81-71 8.26 5.3 61.50
Kansas St. Y 25-11 71-67 3.54 0.7 59.38
Loyola (Chi.) Y 31-5 72-62 9.80 6.8 51.89
Michigan Y 31-7 75-63 5.93 9.8 59.74
Texas Tech Y 27-9 75-65 5.13 14.5 60.35
Villanova Y 33-4 87-71 10.44 12.3 60.56

 

Here are the Detailed Criteria Matchups for the teams

Kansas St.  vs.  Loyola of Chicago

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Kansas St. Y 25-11 71-67 3.54 0.7 59.38
Loyola (Chi.) Y 31-5 72-62 9.80 6.8 51.89
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Kansas St. -3.17 7.94 5.75 2.78 56.4 52.9
Loyola (Chi.) 1.67 6.50 6.53 0.75 60.2 50.4

This is an interesting game, because history shows Kansas St. with criteria like this should come around as often as Halley’s Comet, while Loyola has a criteria that looks more like a Sweet 16 at best team.

Looking at the head-to-head stats, Loyola is superior in more of the key stats, but Kansas State has the big schedule strength advantage.  The outcome of this game will come down to whether the Wildcats can force the Ramblers into turnovers that they have not been committing so far in the Dance.  Loyola is playing confidently, and they have not been affected by the bright lights.  Assistant Coach Sister Jean may be the reason for that.

We don’t want to sound like a broken record, but our criteria will not allow us to pick a team with an R+T Rating barely above 0.  Kansas State cannot continue to get out-rebounded by large amounts (double digits against Kentucky) and rely on steals and three-point shots to win.  It might work two or three times, but asking to make the Final Four without being able to rebound or really shoot well is asking way too much.   They have a puncher’s chance to win this game and become the weakest rebounding team in Final Four history, but we are going to favor the team that is closer to complete.

PiRate Pick: LOYOLA of CHICAGO

 

Michigan vs.  Florida St.

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Michigan Y 31-7 75-63 5.93 9.8 59.74
Florida St. Y 23-11 81-73 4.42 10.3 59.07
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Michigan 0.58 6.29 4.11 3.63 57.0 51.0
Florida St. 2.71 6.91 5.82 1.26 56.4 52.0

This looks like a complete toss-up game according to the statistics.  Both teams have favorable scoring margins, although Michigan’s is a bit better.  Both teams have decent true shooting percentage margins, R+T ratings, and Strengths of Schedule.  Florida State has the rebounding edge, but Michigan gets the turnover margin edge.

There is one secondary edge that the Wolverines have that the Seminoles lack.  The Maize and Blue have won 12 games in a row, and in that time, their rebounding has made a major leap forward.

PiRate Pick: MICHIGAN

 

Villanova vs. Texas Tech

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Villanova Y 33-4 87-71 10.44 12.3 60.56
Texas Tech Y 27-9 75-65 5.13 14.5 60.35
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Villanova 2.70 6.62 4.81 2.38 62.5 52.1
Texas Tech 4.11 7.19 5.94 2.67 55.8 50.7

Texas Tech has done an admirable job to get this far, and they will not go down without a fight, but their opponent has the criteria look of a Final Four team.  In fact, of the eight remaining teams, Villanova’s criteria best fits that of a Final Four team.

The Wildcats may eventually meet a team that is too strong on the boards for them to dominate on the scoreboard, but Texas Tech is most likely not that team.  The Red Raiders might win the rebounding numbers by a little, but we don’t think they can clean the glass, which is what it is going to take to stop VU.

PiRate Pick: VILLANOVA

 

Kansas  vs.  Duke

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Kansas Y 30-7 81-71 8.26 5.3 61.50
Duke Y 29-7 84-69 9.72 21.2 60.69
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Kansas 0.05 6.59 5.51 1.38 59.7 51.4
Duke 8.80 7.39 5.69 -0.39 58.8 49.1

What looks like the game of the Elite 8 Round may be exactly what has been advertised.  This should be an interesting game, because both teams have small Achilles’ Heels that a genius coaching staff and highly-skilled players can exploit.  Both teams have genius coaching staffs and highly-skilled players.

The glaring difference in this game is that Kansas’s liability is Duke’s biggest asset, whereas Duke’s liability is only a minor asset for KU.

PiRate Pick: DUKE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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March 22, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Games of Thursday, March 22

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Nevada Loyola (IL) 2.7
Michigan Texas A&M 2.5
Kentucky Kansas St. 4.4
Gonzaga Florida St. 5.0

Thursday Night’s TV Schedule

Thursday, Mar 22, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
7:07 PM 7 Nevada 11 Loyola (Chi.) Atlanta CBS
7:37 PM 3 Michigan 7 Texas A&M Los Angeles TBS
9:37 PM 5 Kentucky 9 Kansas St. Atlanta CBS
10:07 PM 4 Gonzaga 9 Florida St. Los Angeles TBS

We’ve All Busted

What a year to debut a new bracket-picking trial!  How can we tell if this criteria has any credibility when nobody in the world can show any formula or any human picking ability that would have worked in the first two rounds.

Tonight, there will be no one-seeds or two-seeds playing.  Michigan is the only three-seed playing tonight.  Instead, we will see a seven, two nines, and an 11-seed in action.  Then, on Saturday either Nevada or Loyola will be playing for a spot in the Final Four.

Things will get a tad less crazy tomorrow night when two ones and two twos play, but in only one case is a Sweet 16 game going to have the two teams the seeding process believed should be there.

All is not lost.  We still have three of our four predicted Final Four teams alive, including the team we believe would win the National Championship.

Here is a look at the PiRate Ratings 2018 Criteria for the Sweet 16.

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Clemson Y 25-9 74-66 6.68 7.9 59.83
Duke Y 28-7 85-69 10.11 21.7 60.69
Florida St. Y 22-11 81-74 4.18 10.6 58.79
Gonzaga Y 32-4 84-68 9.37 22.6 53.89
Kansas Y 29-7 81-71 8.34 5.4 61.30
Kansas St. Y 24-11 72-67 3.69 0.9 59.08
Kentucky Y 26-10 77-71 5.38 12.3 60.66
Loyola (Chi.) Y 30-5 72-62 9.82 6.7 51.44
Michigan Y 30-7 74-63 5.43 10.0 59.52
Nevada Y 29-7 83-73 5.97 6.4 55.05
Purdue Y 30-6 81-65 11.43 10.5 59.31
Syracuse Y 22-13 67-64 1.55 11.3 58.92
Texas A&M Y 22-12 75-70 4.73 12.9 61.02
Texas Tech Y 26-9 75-65 5.15 14.5 59.89
Villanova Y 32-4 88-76 10.18 13.1 60.33
West Virginia Y 26-10 80-69 0.66 16.9 60.59

Immediately, we can see one very consistent pattern here.  All of the Sweet 16 teams come from what we call the “Power Conferences.”  A Power Conference is one in which the overall league RPI is one of the top 12.  The Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and West Coast Conferences rank in the top 12, so really, there are no completely surprise teams.  We just failed to hit on these regular season champions of these leagues.  We may have to add a caveat in the future that when the regular season champion of one of these leagues makes the tournament to watch out for them as an underdog, because in most cases, they have been seeded incorrectly.

Loyola, Nevada, and Gonzaga did not look like they were fluke wins in the two rounds.  Loyola’s defense and intelligent half-court offense looked a lot like Butler during their back-to-back runs to the Final Four.  Gonzaga should be no surprise by now.  They are to this generation what UNLV and Marquette were to the 1970’s.  Nevada should have been no surprise, as we have only lauded Coach Eric Musselman as the best men’s basketball coach since about December of 2016.  How he orchestrated a couple of wins this past weekend with a six-man roster is incredible, and he did it against Cincinnati with multiple players in early foul trouble.  We hear that he is on the radar for other jobs that could bring him quite a jump in salary, but we believe that he is more likely to return to the NBA before taking another college position.

Looking at the data above, 15 of the 16 teams look like they belong in the Sweet 16.  Kansas State is the lone outlier, but look at how they got here from the previous round.  They became the first team ever to face a 16-seed in the Round of 32, and the Wildcats almost didn’t beat UMBC.

We have delayed this report where we preview all eight games in the Sweet 16, as we feverishly try to discover if certain injured players will be able to contribute in any way.  Tops on that list is Purdue’s Isaac Haas.  Who says that sports cannot expand the minds of our youth today?  The entire Purdue University Engineering department, professors and students, have been hard at work trying to create an NCAA-approved sleeve to protect Hass’s shattered elbow, and they have a deadline fast approaching.  It isn’t exactly finding a way to bring home Apollo 13, but it’s still an honorable task that could help dozens of Millenials develop some confidence and resume-building gold.

Kentucky’s Jarred Vanderbilt could conceivably play a few minutes here and there tonight against Kansas St., but it is more likely that he will be held out in order to possibly contribute a little more if the Wildcats make it to the Elite 8.

Then, there is Nevada.  How does a team get outrebounded by 15 boards, force just seven turnovers, and make just six, 3-pointers and win a Round of 32 game?  How does this same team get behind by 22 points, see three players on a roster of just six get in early foul trouble, and still come from behind to beat a top 10 team?

Maybe Mariah Musselman is just as powerful as Sister Jean.  Of course, one of these two will see the magic come to an end tonight.  This will be a game that looks more like a chess match between two geniuses than a racehorse up and down affair.  It should be tense for 40 minutes.

Out in Los Angeles, the Michigan-Texas A&M game is intriguing.  Michigan’s new inside presence on both sides of the floor has made the Wolverines better able to face the power teams, while their outside game is still strong.  Can the Aggies use a little superior quickness in this game to lead to a repeat performance of their Round of 32 dismantling of the Tar Heels?  Michigan’s defense will be a tad more difficult to solve than North Carolina’s, and this game should be exciting to the final few possessions.

On paper, the final game of the night looks like a potential mismatch, but in this wacky season, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if the underdog wins.

It’s time to preview all eight Sweet 16 games.  We will talk more about Friday’s games on Friday morning.

Nevada vs. Loyola (Chi.)

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Nevada Y 29-7 83-73 5.97 6.4 55.05
Loyola (Chi.) Y 30-5 72-62 9.82 6.7 51.44
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Nevada -0.64 6.11 4.42 3.08 58.4 52.4
Loyola (Chi.) 1.49 6.51 6.43 0.94 60.2 50.4

Loyola does not force turnovers, but the Ramblers also do not commit many.  While being a decent rebounding team, they do not control the boards, which is Nevada’s Kryptonite.  So, neither team will really exploit the other’s weakness.This is an excellent chess game according to the criteria results.  Nevada needs to force turnovers or at least commit very few to be successful.  They beat Cincinnati by committing just two turnovers in the entire game in Nashville!

Looking at true shooting percentage margin and schedule strength, once again, these two factors cancel out each other.

It comes down to which team can handle a little adversity early in the second half and then make maybe one run.  Think of a classic horse race, where you have a bunch of horses that come from just off the pace and have one run in them.  Which horse will get the perfect trip and be in position to cross the line first?

We admit that we have no sure statistic to look at and say that our choice is solid.  Nevada surely cannot keep playing a rotation of six players and not suffer fatigue.  Loyola cannot expect to keep winning without being able to score a bevy of cheap baskets as the competition gets tougher by the round.

We are going to go with the PiRate Ratings chalk in this one, since we have no other data to rely on to make this pick.  The PiRate Ratings favors the Wolf Pack by 2.7 points, so our pick is: NEVADA

 

Michigan vs. Texas A&M

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Michigan Y 30-7 74-63 5.43 10.0 59.52
Texas A&M Y 22-12 75-70 4.73 12.9 61.02
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Michigan 0.73 6.14 4.11 3.54 56.5 51.1
Texas A&M 6.56 5.50 6.35 -2.65 53.9 49.2

We could almost copy and paste the information from the prior game into this section and just change the names.  Once again, we have a team (Michigan) that is excellent in turnover margin against a top-flight schedule, but that has at times been exploited on the boards, while Texas A&M dominates on the glass but suffers in turnover margin against a slightly stronger schedule.  The teams are about equal in true shooting percentage margin, with the exception that the Wolverine’s advantage tilts a little more toward superior offense, while the Aggies’ advantage tilts a little more toward superior defense.

We are going to make an unscientific assumption about this game, so please feel free to consider it a load of hooey.  We have looked through our mother of pearl shells and think we foresee a tense start of this game, where the team that can get in trouble with turnover margin will be a bit tight, and the Aggies will either turn the ball over a bit too much in the first half or play not to make mistakes and then shoot much lower than their normal percentage, even missing some close-in shots that they hardly ever miss.

Thus,  our wacky belief is that Michigan will get the early lead and then fight the rest of the night to keep it, once A&M starts to lose the tension.  We’ll go with Coach John Beilein to guide the Maize and Blue back to another Elite 8 appearance.  Our Pick: MICHIGAN

 

Kentucky vs. Kansas St.

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Kentucky Y 26-10 77-71 5.38 12.3 60.66
Kansas St. Y 24-11 72-67 3.69 0.9 59.08
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Kentucky 5.06 5.64 5.56 -1.08 55.7 50.3
Kansas St. -3.00 7.86 5.77 2.71 56.7 53.0

This actually isn’t the most important Kentucky-Kansas State game in the schools’ histories.  These two Wildcats faced off 67 years ago, minus five days, for the 1951 National Championship on the campus of the University of Minnesota.  Adolph Rupp’s Kentucky squad won his third national title in four years, but it was a close game until late.

Back to the present time.  This game looks on the surface to be rather one-sided.  Kentucky, even without Jarred Vanderbilt, looks a bit too strong for Kansas State.

Hey, did you notice that this makes three out of three games, where one team has the superior rebounding edge, and the other has an equally superior turnover edge?  The difference in this game and the other two is that Kansas State’s advantages are almost nil.  Their R+T Rating is just barely positive, and in our past years relying on R+T, we cannot remember any team with a rating as low as 0.9 ever making the Elite 8.  Because Kentucky’s R+T Rating is 12.3, Coach John Calipari’s Cats will be expected to receive about 11 more cheap scoring opportunities.  When you factor in that Kentucky also has a minor true shooting percentage margin edge, this leads us to forecast a double-digit Kentucky win tonight.  Our pick: KENTUCKY 

 

Gonzaga vs. Florida St.

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Gonzaga Y 32-4 84-68 9.37 22.6 53.89
Florida St. Y 22-11 81-74 4.18 10.6 58.79
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Gonzaga 8.75 6.36 5.06 0.97 59.8 50.4
Florida St. 2.85 6.88 5.85 1.30 56.5 52.3

The underdog Seminoles look to have a fighting chance in this game due to their superior schedule strength.  Florida State does not have a serious exploitable flaw.  They just don’t have a major statistic that is a decisive asset.

Gonzaga has an incredible R+T rating that many Final Four teams in the past have possessed.  Their almost 10% true shooting percentage is also Final Fourish, as is their 16-point average margin of victory.  Teams seldom win by an average margin this high that cannot go on major runs at the right time.  It just isn’t easy to slowly pull away by a point here and there until the lead is past 15 points.  The number one event that usually leads a team deep into tournament play is the ability to have a big spurt at the right time, and Gonzaga is clearly the team that can do this tonight.

The way we see this game is that FSU will take an early lead in the first half, and then Gonzaga will go on its first of three or four scoring runs to grab the lead and then extend the lead to five or six by halftime.  Then, the Bulldogs will make their patented big run in the second half to put the game out of reach.  The Seminoles may make a valiant effort in the final minutes, but it will be too little, too late.  Our Pick: GONZAGA

 

Friday’s Games

Kansas vs. Clemson

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Kansas Y 29-7 81-71 8.34 5.4 61.30
Clemson Y 25-9 74-66 6.68 7.9 59.83
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Kansas 0.08 6.67 5.50 1.44 59.8 51.4
Clemson 2.44 5.65 5.74 -0.06 56.7 50.1

Most casual fans will look at this game and immediately dismiss it as a Jayhawk blowout win.  This is far from being the probable case.  This is a Kansas team with exploitable weaknesses not typical for a Bill Self production.  KU has an exceptional offense, but their defense is prone to lapses.  In a game where the action is fierce on the glass, the Jayhawks do not bring their usual centaurs to the fight.  Rebounding is a liability with this club.  KU doesn’t make up for this weakness with an exceptional turnover margin, but they do pick up a good number of steals that lead to fast break points.

Clemson and championships go hand-in-hand, just not in basketball.  This group of Tigers competed admirably in the ACC race this year, and they have an experienced backcourt.  While CU has an issue with turnovers, this liability will most likely not be used to KU’s advantage.  Clemson can rebound with competence, and the Tigers know how to stop their opponents from scoring just long enough to put a game away.

Only because of experience and a slightly more difficult schedule do we stick with the logical team in this one, but it will not be an easy victory, and it will almost assuredly be their last one of the season.  Our pick: KANSAS

Villanova vs. West Virginia

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Villanova Y 32-4 88-76 10.18 13.1 60.33
West Virginia Y 26-10 80-69 0.66 16.9 60.59
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Villanova 2.86 6.67 4.67 2.72 62.4 52.2
West Virginia 3.61 8.08 5.53 5.17 54.5 53.9

Finally, we get a game where the rebounding and turnover issue does not matter as much as in the other games.  Right away, that should tell you which way we think this game will go.  Press Virginia needs to score points off steals and stop the other team from scoring against the press by either forcing them to throw the ball away or by using up so much clock that they must shoot a low-percentage shot.

Villanova is built for press-breaking and scoring easy baskets once the press is broken.  We believe Coach Bob Huggins might have to call the press off if VU scores too many times on crips.

West Virginia just cannot win a finesse game against this team.  Villanova enjoys a commanding true shooting percentage margin advantage in this game, and we have seen WVU players throw up their share of bricks.  This game should eventually get out of hand, as the team that won the title two years ago makes it look like they could return to the Final Four this year.  Our pick: VILLANOVA

Duke vs. Syracuse

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Duke Y 28-7 85-69 10.11 21.7 60.69
Syracuse Y 22-13 67-64 1.55 11.3 58.92
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Duke 9.20 7.37 5.77 -0.66 59.0 48.9
Syracuse 3.69 7.08 6.11 0.50 51.8 50.2

If you are a Baby Boomer, you know doubt know that the campy TV version of Batman is the only real, legitimate production.  Those movies just capitalized on the great reputation of Adam West of blessed memory.

There was a double episode where Batman faced the Joker, where the going was tough, because the Joker created his own utility belt.  He hand sneezing powder in there.  He had hand-shocking buzzers in there.  He had a bevy of evil tricks to combat the Caped Crusaders.

You can see where this is going, can’t you?  The villainous Blue Devils have their own utility belt.  It is called the 2-3 zone, and early in its employment, it is beating the original one created by Bruce Wayne, aka Jim Boeheim.

The element of surprise disappears for the Cinderella Orangemen Friday.  The Duke Blue Devils know how to attack Syracuse’s defense, and they know how to employ their own utility belt 2-3 zone that for now is proving to be superior to Batman’s, er Syracuse’s.

Here’s the rub.  Duke can penetrate and score inside against Syracuse, something that Arizona State, TCU, and Michigan State could not do.  The Blue Devils have excellent perimeter shooters, and Syracuse will not be able to pack their defense in the paint.  Duke will get open three-pointers and also be able to initiate enough penetration to the point where the Orangemen will either have to give up easy 10-12 foot shots or challenge and become overly vulnerable to a very athletic and very big front line.

On the other side of the ball, Duke’s new 2-3 zone is much more athletic than the Syracuse zone.  At times, Duke makes this look more like a 3-2 drop zone, and we have seen the back line move up into an almost 4-1 look while still protecting the basket.

If you have been reading this site this year, then you know that we are sticking with the Blue Devils to cut down the nets in San Antonio.  The PiRate criteria says this game is a mismatch, and there is nothing we see that makes us think there is a reason not to expect a win by 15-20 points for Coach K’s Army.  Our pick: DUKE

Purdue vs. Texas Tech

Team Power W-L Scr TS% Diff R+T SOS
Purdue Y 30-6 81-65 11.43 10.5 59.31
Texas Tech Y 26-9 75-65 5.15 14.5 59.89
             
Team Reb Stl Opp Stl TO TS% Def TS%
Purdue 2.64 5.72 5.14 1.53 60.8 49.4
Texas Tech 4.11 7.26 5.97 2.57 55.8 50.6

This game would be an easy one to forecast if Isaac Haas were available and at least 80% of his usual self.  Purdue finally had the talent and playing style to make it to the Final Four, but losing Haas’s top-quality offensive efficiency really hurts the Boilermakers.

Texas Tech is a solid but not spectacular team. The Red Raiders are not the same team they were prior to Zach Smith’s injury.  TTU was 14-1 when Smith was lost for almost eight weeks.  They went 8-6 without him, and they only went 2-2 to close out the regular season once he returned nowhere near as effective as he had been.

Smith began to resemble his old self in the Stephen F. Austin game, and maybe he is coming back into form, where he can supplement his team by coming off the bench.  It is hard to recover that quickly from a broken foot, so it’s uncertain how many minutes he can play and stay effective.

At least Smith can play, which is more than we can say about Haas.  Purdue played courageously in their win over Butler.  Freshman giant Matt Haarms, took over for Haas at center, but there was a huge drop in talent between 7 foot 2 inch giants.  Haarms connected on just one shot from the field and seemed a bit stiff trying to play defense in the paint or pulling down rebounds.  It took a monumental outside shooting effort for the Boilermakers to win.

Texas Tech is a bigger force to beat without a principle weapon.  The Red Raiders will neutralize Purdue’s outside game with four competent perimeter defenders that will keep man-to-man pressure outside.

There may be one more win inside the Boilermaker Express, even if they have one less engine on the track.  Texas Tech doesn’t really have the fantastic inside presence to exploit Purdue’s loss of Haas, and Haarms just might come up with a better performance Friday night after having the first start jitters melted away.  He is going to play 30 minutes in this game, and he just might surprise some folks.  We think this game is a complete toss-up.  Our Pick: PURDUE

The NIT

The National Invitation Tournament used to be on equal footing with the NCAA Tournament.  There were some years where the NIT champion was decisively better than the NCAA Tournament champion.

Alas, those days are gone.  However, the NIT has proven to have a new usefulness.  Many experimental rules have been experimented with in this tournament, and this year, it has produced excellent results with rules that we believe should be implemented next year.

  1. The NIT is using four, 10-minute quarters rather than two, 20-minute halves.  This is not the first time that college basketball used quarters instead of halves.  It was tried in the 1950s.  We think that playing quarters and with the change in foul rules, it allows defenses to play more aggressively, knowing that they get a clean slate at the end of the first and third quarters.  Also, it doubles the amount of last possessions in the game, which leads to two more buzzer-beater opportunities, something great for the fans.
  2. The shot clock does not reset to 30 seconds on an offensive rebound.  It reset to just 20 seconds, which means teams cannot just throw the ball back to the outside and slowly run the offense again.  They must try to put the ball back up and score without resetting their offense.  This should lead in theory to about three or four more possessions in the game.

We here on the PiRate ship believe that fans do not want to pay exorbitant ticket prices to see dribbling exhibitions.  Action involves passing and moving, and anything that reduces dribbling can only be good for the game.  We’d like to see the closely guarded dribbling rule re-instated, where a player cannot dribble for five seconds while being guarded man-to-man without advancing toward the goal.  If this rule returned, it would force ball hogs to give up the ball within four seconds, and it would lead to more passing and more movement.  It might push average possessions back up to 75+ per game like it was when college basketball was its most exciting in the period between 1965 and 1975.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 12, 2017

Sunday March Madness Update

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:48 am

Rhode Island won an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by topping VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.  The Rams now must be moved into first round bye status, so now a new team must be lowered into the First Four in Dayton.

Our Gurus will not have time to send us those teams, so we will go with the lowest team that received a bye prior to URI being moved up.

Thus, Vanderbilt moves down to the First Four as an 11-seed to face USC and Wake Forest moves to a 12-seed to Kansas State in the other First Four game.

December 4, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 8, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

P i R a t e
# Team PiRate
1 Alabama 133.1
2 Oregon   131.7
3 Texas A&M 128.3
4 Kansas St. 128.0
5 Oklahoma 127.0
6 Notre Dame 125.2
7 Georgia 125.2
8 L S U   123.2
9 Oklahoma St. 123.2
10 South Carolina 123.0
11 Florida St. 120.7
12 Florida 120.5
13 Stanford 120.5
14 Clemson   119.3
15 U S C 117.9
16 Baylor 117.2
17 Texas 117.0
18 Wisconsin   116.6
19 Oregon St. 115.9
20 U C L A 114.9
21 West Virginia 114.9
22 Ohio St. 114.8
23 Michigan 114.4
24 T C U 114.1
25 Vanderbilt 113.0
26 B Y U 112.3
27 Nebraska 111.6
28 Arizona St. 110.3
29 Michigan St. 110.1
30 Mississippi St. 109.8
31 Arizona 109.7
32 Penn St. 109.6
33 Iowa St. 109.5
34 Texas Tech 109.3
35 Washington 109.2
36 Northwestern 108.8
37 Ole Miss 108.4
38 North Carolina 107.9
39 Tennessee 107.3
40 Missouri 107.1
41 Boise St. 106.6
42 Georgia Tech 106.2
43 Syracuse 105.9
44 Northern Illinois   105.8
45 Fresno St. 105.7
46 Utah 105.5
47 Central Florida 105.3
48 Utah St. 105.2
49 Pittsburgh 104.9
50 Cincinnati 104.6
51 Rutgers 104.3
52 Miami-FL 104.2
53 Tulsa 104.0
54 North Carolina St. 103.8
55 Virginia Tech 103.3
56 Louisiana Tech   103.1
57 San Jose St. 102.7
58 Arkansas 102.4
59 Louisville 101.9
60 Arkansas St. 101.2
61 San Diego St. 100.6
62 Purdue 100.3
63 Kent St. 99.7
64 Ball St. 99.7
65 California 99.6
66 Auburn 98.2
67 Iowa 97.4
68 Toledo 96.7
69 Duke 96.7
70 Virginia 96.3
71 Minnesota 96.1
72 S M U 96.0
73 Bowling Green 95.9
74 Connecticut 95.6
75 South Florida 95.5
76 Boston College 95.4
77 UL-Lafayette 95.3
78 Nevada 95.1
79 Maryland 95.1
80 Louisiana-Monroe 94.6
81 Washington St. 93.8
82 Kansas 93.7
83 East Carolina 93.4
84 Rice 92.5
85 Navy 92.1
86 Indiana 91.8
87 Western Kentucky 91.5
88 Houston 90.1
89 Western Michigan 89.7
90 Wake Forest 89.4
91 Ohio U 89.2
92 Kentucky 89.2
93 Temple 89.1
94 Marshall 88.9
95 Troy 88.9
96 Illinois 88.5
97 U T E P 87.6
98 Wyoming 87.5
99 Air Force 87.1
100 North Texas 85.9
101 Central Michigan 85.7
102 Buffalo 85.2
103 Florida International 85.2
104 Army 84.3
105 Miami (O) 84.3
106 Colorado St. 83.5
107 Middle Tennessee 83.2
108 U A B 83.0
109 New Mexico 82.6
110 Texas St. 82.3
111 Memphis 82.0
112 Southern Mississippi   80.8
113 Colorado 80.1
114 Hawaii 79.8
115 Eastern Michigan 79.7
116 Florida Atlantic 79.6
117 UNLV 78.8
118 U T S A 77.7
119 Tulane 75.3
120 Akron 74.3
121 South Alabama 74.2
122 Idaho 73.2
123 New Mexico St. 69.3
124 Massachusetts 68.1

 

V i n t a g e
# Team Vintage
1 Alabama 128.0
2 Georgia  127.0
3 Notre Dame 126.0
4 Texas A&M 125.5
5 Oregon 125.0
6 L S U 124.5
7 Ohio St. 124.5
8 Stanford 124.0
9 Florida  123.5
10 Kansas St. 122.0
11 South Carolina 121.5
12 Oklahoma 120.5
13 Michigan 118.0
14 Oklahoma St. 116.0
15 Florida St. 115.5
16 U C L A 115.0
17 Nebraska 115.0
18 Wisconsin 114.5
19 Vanderbilt 114.5
20 Clemson 114.0
21 Oregon St. 113.5
22 Penn St. 113.5
23 Northwestern 112.5
24 Southern Cal 112.0
25 B Y U 111.5
26 T C U 111.0
27 Ole Miss 110.5
28 Baylor 110.0
29 Boise St. 109.5
30 Fresno St. 109.5
31 San Diego St. 109.5
32 Michigan St. 109.5
33 Mississippi St. 109.0
34 Texas 109.0
35 West Virginia 108.5
36 Utah St. 108.5
37 Arizona St. 108.0
38 North Carolina St. 107.5
39 Arizona 107.5
40 Cincinnati 107.0
41 Washington 107.0
42 North Carolina 106.5
43 Kent St. 106.0
44 Northern Illinois 105.5
45 Miami 105.0
46 Texas Tech 105.0
47 Virginia Tech 105.0
48 San Jose St. 104.5
49 Syracuse 104.5
50 Georgia Tech 104.0
51 Utah 104.0
52 Central Florida 103.5
53 Iowa St. 103.5
54 Missouri 103.0
55 Arkansas 103.0
56 Arkansas St. 102.5
57 Louisiana Tech 102.5
58 Louisville 102.0
59 Rutgers 101.0
60 Tulsa 100.5
61 Nevada 100.0
62 Virginia 100.0
63 Pittsburgh 99.5
64 Bowling Green 99.5
65 Ball St. 99.5
66 Purdue 99.5
67 Tennessee 99.0
68 Duke 98.5
69 Minnesota 98.0
70 Boston College 97.5
71 Toledo 96.5
72 California 96.0
73 East Carolina 95.0
74 Navy 95.0
75 Rice 94.0
76 UL-Lafayette 94.0
77 Indiana 94.0
78 Connecticut 93.5
79 Iowa 93.5
80 Ohio U 93.0
81 Temple 93.0
82 Kansas 93.0
83 S M U 92.5
84 Wake Forest 92.5
85 Auburn 92.5
86 UL-Monroe 92.0
87 Maryland 91.5
88 Kentucky 91.0
89 Air Force 90.0
90 Middle Tennessee 90.0
91 Washington St. 90.0
92 Central Michigan 89.5
93 Illinois 89.5
94 Western Kentucky 89.0
95 Troy 88.5
96 South Florida 88.5
97 Colorado 88.5
98 Marshall 88.0
99 Wyoming 88.0
100 Colorado St. 88.0
101 U T S A 87.5
102 Buffalo 87.5
103 Army 87.0
104 Texas St. 86.5
105 Memphis 86.0
106 Miami (O) 85.0
107 Houston 84.5
108 New Mexico 84.5
109 U A B 83.5
110 Western Michigan 83.5
111 Florida Int’l 83.0
112 U N L V 82.5
113 U T E P 82.0
114 Hawaii 80.5
115 Eastern Michigan 80.5
116 Florida Atlantic 80.0
117 North Texas 79.0
118 Akron 78.5
119 Tulane 76.0
120 Massachusetts 75.5
121 Idaho 74.5
122 Southern Miss. 74.5
123 South Alabama 74.0
124 New Mexico St. 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Florida St. 7-1 11-2 120.7 115.5
Clemson   7-1 10-2 119.3 114.0
North Carolina St. 4-4 7-5 103.8 107.5
Boston College 1-7 2-10 95.4 97.5
Maryland 2-6 4-8 95.1 91.5
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7 89.4 92.5
         
Coastal Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
North Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.9 106.5
Georgia Tech 5-3 6-7 106.2 104.0
Miami-FL 5-3 8-4 104.2 105.0
Virginia Tech 4-4 6-6 103.3 105.0
Duke 3-5 6-6 96.7 98.5
Virginia 2-6 4-8 96.3 100.0
         
         
Conference Means 103.16   103.19 103.1

 

 

Big East Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Syracuse 5-2 7-5 105.9 104.5
Pittsburgh 3-4 6-6 104.9 99.5
Cincinnati 5-2 9-3 104.6 107.0
Rutgers 5-2 9-3 104.3 101.0
Louisville 5-2 10-2 101.9 102.0
Connecticut 2-5 5-7 95.6 93.5
South Florida 1-6 3-9 95.5 88.5
Temple 2-5 4-7 89.1 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 99.425   100.23 98.6

 

 

Big Ten
         
Leaders Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Wisconsin   4-4 8-5 116.6 114.5
Ohio St. 8-0 12-0 114.8 124.5
Penn St. 6-2 8-4 109.6 113.5
Purdue 3-5 6-6 100.3 99.5
Indiana 2-6 4-8 91.8 94.0
Illinois 0-8 2-10 88.5 89.5
         
Legends Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Michigan 6-2 8-4 114.4 118.0
Nebraska 7-1 10-3 111.6 115.0
Michigan St. 3-5 6-6 110.1 109.5
Northwestern 5-3 9-3 108.8 112.5
Iowa 2-6 4-8 97.4 93.5
Minnesota 2-6 6-6 96.1 98.0
         
Conference Means 105.917   105.00 106.8

 

 

Big 12
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kansas St. 8-1 11-1 128.0 122.0
Oklahoma 8-1 10-2 127.0 120.5
Oklahoma St. 5-4 7-5 123.2 116.0
Baylor 4-5 7-5 117.2 110.0
Texas 5-4 8-4 117.0 109.0
West Virginia 4-5 7-5 114.9 108.5
T C U 4-5 7-5 114.1 111.0
Iowa St. 3-6 6-6 109.5 103.5
Texas Tech 4-5 7-5 109.3 105.0
Kansas 0-9 1-11 93.7 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.62   115.39 109.9

 

 

Conference USA
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Central Florida 7-1 9-4 105.3 103.5
East Carolina 7-1 8-4 93.4 95.0
Marshall 4-4 5-7 88.9 88.0
U A B 2-6 3-9 83.0 83.5
Memphis 4-4 4-8 82.0 86.0
Southern Mississippi   0-8 0-12 80.8 74.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Tulsa 7-1 10-3 104.0 100.5
S M U 5-3 6-6 96.0 92.5
Rice 4-4 6-6 92.5 94.0
Houston 4-4 5-7 90.1 84.5
U T E P 2-6 3-9 87.6 82.0
Tulane 2-6 2-10 75.3 76.0
         
         
Conference Means 89.1208   89.91 88.3

 

 

Independents
         
Team   Overall Rating Vintage
Notre Dame   12-0 125.2 126.0
B Y U   7-5 112.3 111.5
Navy   7-4 92.1 95.0
Army   2-9 84.3 87.0
         
         
Conference Means 104.175   103.48 104.9

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kent St. 8-0 11-2 99.7 106.0
Bowling Green 6-2 8-4 95.9 99.5
Ohio U 4-4 8-4 89.2 93.0
Buffalo 3-5 4-8 85.2 87.5
Miami (O) 3-5 4-8 84.3 85.0
Akron 0-8 1-11 74.3 78.5
Massachusetts 1-7 1-11 68.1 75.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Northern Illinois   8-0 12-1 105.8 105.5
Ball St. 6-2 9-3 99.7 99.5
Toledo 6-2 9-3 96.7 96.5
Western Michigan 2-6 4-8 89.7 83.5
Central Michigan 4-4 6-6 85.7 89.5
Eastern Michigan 1-7 2-10 79.7 80.5
         
         
Conference Means 89.7692   88.77 90.8

 

 

Mountain West Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Boise St. 7-1 10-2 106.6 109.5
Fresno St. 7-1 9-3 105.7 109.5
San Diego St. 7-1 9-3 100.6 109.5
Nevada 4-4 7-5 95.1 100.0
Wyoming 3-5 4-8 87.5 88.0
Air Force 5-3 6-6 87.1 90.0
Colorado St. 3-5 4-8 83.5 88.0
New Mexico 1-7 4-9 82.6 84.5
Hawaii 1-7 3-9 79.8 80.5
UNLV 2-6 2-11 78.8 82.5
         
         
Conference Means 92.465   90.73 94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oregon   8-1 11-1 131.7 125.0
Stanford 8-1 11-2 120.5 124.0
Oregon St. 6-3 9-3 115.9 113.5
Washington 5-4 7-5 109.2 107.0
California 2-7 3-9 99.6 96.0
Washington St. 1-8 3-9 93.8 90.0
         
South Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
U S C 5-4 7-5 117.9 112.0
U C L A 6-3 9-4 114.9 115.0
Arizona St. 5-4 7-5 110.3 108.0
Arizona 4-5 7-5 109.7 107.5
Utah 3-6 5-7 105.5 104.0
Colorado 1-8 1-11 80.1 88.5
         
         
Conference Means 108.317   109.09 107.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Georgia 7-1 11-2 125.2 127.0
South Carolina 6-2 10-2 123.0 121.5
Florida 7-1 11-1 120.5 123.5
Vanderbilt 5-3 8-4 113.0 114.5
Tennessee 1-7 5-7 107.3 99.0
Missouri 2-6 5-7 107.1 103.0
Kentucky 0-8 2-10 89.2 91.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Alabama 7-1 12-1 133.1 128.0
Texas A&M 6-2 10-2 128.3 125.5
L S U   6-2 10-2 123.2 124.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 109.8 109.0
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 108.4 110.5
Arkansas 2-6 4-8 102.4 103.0
Auburn 0-8 3-9 98.2 92.5
         
         
Conference Means 112.9   113.48 112.3

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Arkansas St. 7-1 9-3 101.2 102.5
UL-Lafayette 6-2 8-4 95.3 94.0
Louisiana-Monroe 6-2 8-4 94.6 92.0
Western Kentucky 4-4 7-5 91.5 89.0
Troy 3-5 5-7 88.9 88.5
Middle Tennessee 6-2 8-4 83.2 90.0
North Texas 3-5 4-8 85.9 79.0
Florida International 2-6 3-9 85.2 83.0
Florida Atlantic 2-6 3-9 79.6 80.0
South Alabama 1-7 2-11 74.2 74.0
         
         
Conference Means 87.58   87.96 87.2

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Utah St. 6-0 10-2 105.2 108.5
Louisiana Tech   4-2 9-3 103.1 102.5
San Jose St. 5-1 10-2 102.7 104.5
Texas St. 2-4 4-8 82.3 86.5
U T S A 3-3 8-4 77.7 87.5
Idaho 1-5 1-11 73.2 74.5
New Mexico St. 0-6 1-11 69.3 67.0
         
         
Conference Means 88.8929   87.64 90.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spread

Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage Line
Navy (Philadelphia) Army 7.8 8.0 7   

 

The Bowls

Day Date Time EST Bowl City Network Team Team
Sat D. 15 1:00 PM New Mexico Albuquerque ESPN Nevada Arizona
Sat D. 15 4:30 PM Famous Idaho Potato Boise ESPN Toledo Utah St.
Thu D. 20 8:00 PM Poinsettia San Diego ESPN San Diego St. B Y U
Fri D. 21 7:30 PM Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg ESPN Ball St. Central Fla.
Sat D. 22 12:00 PM New Orleans New Orleans ESPN UL-Lafayette East Carolina
Sat D. 22 3:30 PM MAACO Las Vegas ESPN Boise St. Washington
Mon D. 24 8:00 PM Hawaii Honolulu ESPN Fresno St. S M U
Wed D. 26 7:30 PM Little Caesar’s Pizza Detroit ESPN Western Ky. Central Mich.
Thu D. 27 3:00 PM Military Washington, DC ESPN San Jose St. Bowling Green
Thu D. 27 6:30 PM Belk Charlotte ESPN Duke Cincinnati
Thu D. 27 9:45 PM Holiday San Diego ESPN U C L A Baylor
Fri D. 28 2:00 PM Independence Shreveport ESPN UL-Monroe Ohio U
Fri D. 28 5:30 PM Russell Athletic Orlando ESPN Rutgers Va. Tech
Fri D. 28 9:00 PM Meineke Car Care of Texas Houston ESPN Minnesota Texas Tech
Sat D. 29 11:45 AM Armed Forces Ft. Worth ESPN Rice Air Force
Sat D. 29 3:15 PM Pinstripe Bronx ESPN Syracuse West Virginia
Sat D. 29 4:00 PM Kraft Fight Hunger San Francisco ESPN2 Arizona St. Navy
Sat D. 29 6:45 PM Alamo San Antonio ESPN Texas Oregon St.
Sat D. 29 10:15 PM Buffalo Wild Wings Tempe ESPN T C U Michigan St.
Mon D. 31 12:00 PM Music City Nashville ESPN Vanderbilt N. Carolina St.
Mon D. 31 2:00 PM Sun El Paso CBS Ga. Tech Southern Cal
Mon D. 31 3:30 PM Liberty Memphis ESPN Iowa St. Tulsa
Mon D. 31 7:30 PM Chick-fil-A Atlanta ESPN L S U Clemson
Tue J. 1 12:00 PM Heart of Dallas Dallas ESPNU Purdue Oklahoma St.
Tue J. 1 12:00 PM Gator Jacksonville ESPN2 Northwestern Mississippi St.
Tue J. 1 1:00 PM Capital One Orlando ABC Nebraska Georgia
Tue J. 1 1:00 PM Outback Tampa ESPN South Carolina Michigan
Tue J. 1 5:00 PM Rose Pasadena ESPN Stanford Wisconsin
Tue J. 1 8:30 PM Orange Miami ESPN Florida St. Northern Illinois
Wed J. 2 8:30 PM Sugar New Orleans ESPN Florida Louisville
Thu J. 3 8:30 PM Fiesta Glendale ESPN Kansas St. Oregon
Fri J. 4 8:00 PM Cotton Arlington Fox Oklahoma Texas A&M
Sat J. 5 1:00 PM BBVA Compass Birmingham ESPN Pittsburgh Ole Miss
Sun J. 6 9:00 PM GoDaddy.com Mobile ESPN Arkansas St. Kent St.
Mon J. 7 8:30 PM National Championship New Orleans ESPN Notre Dame Alabama

 

Note: Check back Friday, December 7 for the opening round of the PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs.

November 7, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 6-10, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate
1 Alabama 134.8
2 Kansas St. 131.1
3 Oregon   130.9
4 Oklahoma 129.0
5 L S U   125.5
6 Notre Dame 124.5
7 Florida St. 124.4
8 Texas A&M 123.9
9 South Carolina 122.6
10 Oklahoma St. 122.5
11 Georgia 121.1
12 Florida 121.1
13 Clemson   120.9
14 U S C 120.0
15 Stanford 117.6
16 Texas 117.0
17 Michigan 116.9
18 Nebraska 115.8
19 U C L A 114.8
20 Texas Tech 113.8
21 B Y U 113.8
22 Ohio St. 113.5
23 Oregon St. 113.2
24 T C U 112.5
25 Wisconsin    112.3
26 Utah 111.4
27 Iowa St. 110.8
28 West Virginia 110.6
29 Baylor 110.4
30 Michigan St. 110.3
31 North Carolina 109.9
32 Vanderbilt 109.4
33 Arizona 109.3
34 Missouri 109.2
35 Tennessee 109.2
36 Penn St. 108.4
37 Mississippi St. 108.4
38 Arizona St. 107.6
39 Washington 107.4
40 Central Florida 106.7
41 Ole Miss 106.4
42 Louisiana Tech   106.4
43 Rutgers 106.1
44 Boise St. 105.9
45 Louisville 104.9
46 Northern Illinois   104.0
47 Utah St. 104.0
48 California 104.0
49 Pittsburgh 103.8
50 Georgia Tech 103.4
51 Northwestern 103.3
52 Arkansas 103.0
53 Virginia Tech 102.9
54 Cincinnati 102.7
55 Fresno St. 102.7
56 Tulsa 102.4
57 Syracuse 101.4
58 Miami-FL 101.3
59 South Florida 100.8
60 Toledo 100.6
61 Auburn 100.6
62 North Carolina St. 99.9
63 San Diego St. 99.6
64 Purdue 98.6
65 San Jose St. 98.0
66 Duke 97.8
67 Iowa 97.8
68 Kent St. 97.2
69 Minnesota 96.8
70 Indiana 96.6
71 Virginia 96.6
72 Maryland 96.2
73 Nevada 96.1
74 Louisiana-Monroe 96.1
75 Kansas 96.1
76 Ball St. 96.0
77 Wake Forest 95.5
78 S M U 95.5
79 Western Kentucky 95.4
80 Arkansas St. 95.1
81 East Carolina 94.8
82 Bowling Green 94.5
83 Boston College 94.4
84 Washington St. 93.7
85 Connecticut 93.5
86 Ohio U 93.4
87 Western Michigan 93.4
88 Navy 93.1
89 UL-Lafayette 92.6
90 Houston 92.5
91 Illinois 91.0
92 Marshall 90.2
93 Air Force 89.2
94 Rice 89.0
95 Kentucky 88.6
96 Troy 88.3
97 U T E P 88.2
98 Temple 87.9
99 Wyoming 87.2
100 Army 87.0
101 Middle Tennessee 86.5
102 North Texas 86.4
103 Miami (O) 85.4
104 UNLV 85.1
105 U A B 84.4
106 Southern Mississippi   84.2
107 Central Michigan 84.0
108 Buffalo 84.0
109 Florida International 83.5
110 New Mexico 83.2
111 Colorado St. 80.9
112 Eastern Michigan 80.2
113 Colorado 78.9
114 Texas St. 78.3
115 Florida Atlantic 78.2
116 Hawaii 76.7
117 Tulane 76.6
118 U T S A 75.9
119 Akron 75.6
120 Idaho 75.2
121 Memphis 74.7
122 South Alabama 74.6
123 New Mexico St. 74.3
124 Massachusetts 65.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Vintage Ratings

# Team Vintage
1 Alabama 129.0
2 Kansas St. 127.0
3 Oregon 127.0
4 Georgia  126.5
5 Notre Dame 123.5
6 Florida  123.5
7 L S U 123.0
8 Florida St. 122.0
9 Ohio State 121.5
10 Texas A&M 121.0
11 S. Carolina 120.5
12 Stanford 119.5
13 Clemson 118.5
14 Oklahoma 118.5
15 Nebraska 116.5
16 U S C 116.5
17 Michigan 115.5
18 Oklahoma St. 115.5
19 U C L A 113.5
20 N. Carolina 113.0
21 Louisville 112.5
22 Penn State 112.5
23 B Y U 112.0
24 Miami 111.5
25 Mississippi St. 111.5
26 Michigan St. 111.0
27 Texas 110.5
28 Washington 110.5
29 Oregon St. 110.0
30 Vanderbilt 110.0
31 Wisconsin 109.5
32 Texas Tech 109.5
33 San Diego St. 109.0
34 Boise St. 108.5
35 Ole Miss 108.5
36 Utah 107.5
37 T C U 107.5
38 Rutgers 107.0
39 Northwestern 107.0
40 Arkansas 106.5
41 West Virginia 106.5
42 Fresno St. 106.0
43 Cincinnati 106.0
44 La. Tech 105.5
45 Missouri 105.5
46 Central Fla. 105.0
47 Arizona 104.5
48 Tennessee 104.5
49 Utah St. 104.0
50 Kent St. 103.5
51 Northern Ill. 103.5
52 Virginia Tech 103.5
53 Iowa St. 103.5
54 N. Carolina St. 103.0
55 Tulsa 103.0
56 Arizona St. 103.0
57 Baylor 102.5
58 Pittsburgh 102.0
59 Indiana 101.0
60 Iowa 100.0
61 Syracuse 99.5
62 Toledo 99.5
63 Nevada 99.5
64 San Jose St. 99.0
65 Duke 99.0
66 Minnesota 98.5
67 Bowling Green 98.0
68 Ohio U 98.0
69 Wake Forest 97.5
70 Georgia Tech 97.5
71 Virginia 97.5
72 California 97.5
73 Auburn 97.0
74 Navy 96.5
75 Arkansas St. 95.0
76 Ball St. 95.0
77 Maryland 94.5
78 Boston College 94.0
79 S M U 94.0
80 S. Florida 93.5
81 Air Force 93.5
82 Temple 93.0
83 East Carolina 93.0
84 Purdue 93.0
85 UL-Monroe 92.5
86 Western Mich. 92.5
87 Kansas 92.0
88 UL-Lafayette 91.0
89 Middle Tenn. 91.0
90 Western Ky. 91.0
91 Kentucky 91.0
92 Illinois 91.0
93 UNLV 90.0
94 Army 90.0
95 Miami (O) 90.0
96 Central Mich. 90.0
97 Washington St. 90.0
98 Connecticut 89.5
99 New Mexico 89.0
100 Colorado 88.5
101 Houston 88.0
102 Marshall 87.5
103 Rice 87.0
104 Colorado St. 86.5
105 Buffalo 85.5
106 Wyoming 85.0
107 Troy 84.5
108 Tulane 84.0
109 UTSA 84.0
110 U A B 83.5
111 U T E P 83.5
112 Texas St. 83.0
113 Akron 82.5
114 Florida Int’l 81.5
115 Eastern Mich. 79.5
116 Hawaii 79.0
117 Memphis 77.5
118 N. Texas 77.5
119 Idaho 77.5
120 Florida Atl. 77.0
121 Southern Miss. 76.5
122 S. Alabama 75.0
123 U. Mass. 73.5
124 N. Mexico St. 71.0

 

Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Florida St. 5-1 8-1 124.4 122.0
Clemson   5-1 8-1 120.9 118.5
North Carolina St. 2-3 5-4 99.9 103.0
Maryland 2-3 4-5 96.2 94.5
Wake Forest 3-4 5-4 95.5 97.5
Boston College 1-5 2-7 94.4 94.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
North Carolina 3-2 6-3 109.9 113.0
Georgia Tech 3-3 4-5 103.4 97.5
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 102.9 103.5
Miami-FL 4-2 6-3 101.3 111.5
Duke 3-3 6-4 97.8 99.0
Virginia 1-4 3-6 96.6 97.5
         
         
Conference Means 103.95   103.60 104.3

 

 

Big East Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Rutgers 4-0 7-1 106.1 107.0
Louisville 4-0 9-0 104.9 112.5
Pittsburgh 1-3 4-5 103.8 102.0
Cincinnati 2-1 6-2 102.7 106.0
Syracuse 3-2 4-5 101.4 99.5
South Florida 1-4 3-6 100.8 93.5
Connecticut 0-4 3-6 93.5 89.5
Temple 2-3 3-5 87.9 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 100.256   100.14 100.4

 

 

Big Ten
         
Leaders Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Ohio St. 6-0 10-0 113.5 121.5
Wisconsin   3-2 6-3 112.3 109.5
Penn St. 4-1 6-3 108.4 112.5
Purdue 0-5 3-6 98.6 93.0
Indiana 2-3 4-5 96.6 101.0
Illinois 0-5 2-7 91.0 91.0
         
Legends Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Michigan 4-1 6-3 116.9 115.5
Nebraska 4-1 7-2 115.8 116.5
Michigan St. 2-4 5-5 110.3 111.0
Northwestern 3-2 7-2 103.3 107.0
Iowa 2-3 4-5 97.8 100.0
Minnesota 1-4 5-4 96.8 98.5
         
Conference Means 105.763   105.11 106.4

 

 

Big 12
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kansas St. 6-0 9-0 131.1 127.0
Oklahoma 4-1 6-2 129.0 118.5
Oklahoma St. 3-2 5-3 122.5 115.5
Texas 4-2 7-2 117.0 110.5
Texas Tech 3-3 6-3 113.8 109.5
T C U 3-3 6-3 112.5 107.5
Iowa St. 2-4 5-4 110.8 103.5
West Virginia 2-3 5-3 110.6 106.5
Baylor 1-4 4-4 110.4 102.5
Kansas 0-6 1-8 96.1 92.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.34   115.38 109.3

 

 

Conference USA
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Central Florida 5-0 7-2 106.7 105.0
East Carolina 5-1 6-4 94.8 93.0
Marshall 3-2 4-5 90.2 87.5
U A B 1-4 2-7 84.4 83.5
Southern Mississippi   0-5 0-9 84.2 76.5
Memphis 1-4 1-8 74.7 77.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Tulsa 5-0 7-2 102.4 103.0
S M U 3-2 4-5 95.5 94.0
Houston 3-2 4-5 92.5 88.0
Rice 2-4 4-6 89.0 87.0
U T E P 1-4 2-7 88.2 83.5
Tulane 2-3 2-7 76.6 84.0
         
         
Conference Means 89.2375   89.93 88.5

 

 

Independents
         
Team   Overall Rating Vintage
Notre Dame   9-0 124.5 123.5
B Y U   5-4 113.8 112.0
Navy   6-3 93.1 96.5
Army   2-7 87.0 90.0
         
         
Conference Means 105.05   104.60 105.5

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kent St. 5-0 8-1 97.2 103.5
Bowling Green 4-1 6-3 94.5 98.0
Ohio U 4-1 8-1 93.4 98.0
Miami (O) 3-2 4-5 85.4 90.0
Buffalo 1-4 2-7 84.0 85.5
Akron 0-6 1-9 75.6 82.5
Massachusetts 0-5 0-9 65.7 73.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Northern Illinois   6-0 9-1 104.0 103.5
Toledo 5-0 8-1 100.6 99.5
Ball St. 3-2 6-3 96.0 95.0
Western Michigan 2-4 4-6 93.4 92.5
Central Michigan 1-4 3-6 84.0 90.0
Eastern Michigan 0-5 1-8 80.2 79.5
         
         
Conference Means 90.1923   88.77 91.6

 

 

Mountain West Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 105.9 108.5
Fresno St. 5-1 7-3 102.7 106.0
San Diego St. 5-1 7-3 99.6 109.0
Nevada 3-2 6-3 96.1 99.5
Air Force 4-1 5-4 89.2 93.5
Wyoming 1-4 2-7 87.2 85.0
UNLV 2-3 2-8 85.1 90.0
New Mexico 1-4 4-6 83.2 89.0
Colorado St. 1-4 2-7 80.9 86.5
Hawaii 0-5 1-7 76.7 79.0
         
         
Conference Means 92.63   90.66 94.6

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oregon   6-0 9-0 130.9 127.0
Stanford 5-1 7-2 117.6 119.5
Oregon St. 5-1 7-1 113.2 110.0
Washington 3-3 5-4 107.4 110.5
California 2-5 3-7 104.0 97.5
Washington St. 0-6 2-7 93.7 90.0
         
South Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
U S C 4-3 6-3 120.0 116.5
U C L A 4-2 7-2 114.8 113.5
Utah 2-4 4-5 111.4 107.5
Arizona 2-4 5-4 109.3 104.5
Arizona St. 3-3 5-4 107.6 103.0
Colorado 1-5 1-8 78.9 88.5
         
         
Conference Means 108.2   109.07 107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
South Carolina 5-2 7-2 122.6 120.5
Georgia 6-1 8-1 121.1 126.5
Florida 7-1 8-1 121.1 123.5
Vanderbilt 3-3 5-4 109.4 110.0
Missouri 1-5 4-5 109.2 105.5
Tennessee 0-5 4-5 109.2 104.5
Kentucky 0-7 1-9 88.6 91.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Alabama 6-0 9-0 134.8 129.0
L S U   3-2 7-2 125.5 123.0
Texas A&M 4-2 7-2 123.9 121.0
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 108.4 111.5
Ole Miss 2-3 5-4 106.4 108.5
Arkansas 2-3 4-5 103.0 106.5
Auburn 0-6 2-7 100.6 97.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.921   113.13 112.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana-Monroe 4-1 6-3 96.1 92.5
Western Kentucky 3-2 6-3 95.4 91.0
Arkansas St. 4-1 6-3 95.1 95.0
UL-Lafayette 3-2 5-3 92.6 91.0
Troy 3-3 4-5 88.3 84.5
Middle Tennessee 4-1 6-3 86.5 91.0
North Texas 2-3 3-6 86.4 77.5
Florida International 1-5 2-8 83.5 81.5
Florida Atlantic 1-4 2-7 78.2 77.0
South Alabama 1-4 2-7 74.6 75.0
         
         
Conference Means 86.635   87.67 85.6

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana Tech   3-0 8-1 106.4 105.5
Utah St. 4-0 8-2 104.0 104.0
San Jose St. 3-1 7-2 98.0 99.0
Texas St. 1-2 3-5 78.3 83.0
U T S A 1-3 5-4 75.9 84.0
Idaho 1-3 1-8 75.2 77.5
New Mexico St. 0-4 1-8 74.3 71.0
         
         
Conference Means 88.2929   87.44 89.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games
         
Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage  
Tuesday, November 6      
TOLEDO Ball St. 7.6 7.5  
         
Wednesday, November 7      
OHIO U Bowling Green 1.4 2.5  
         
Thursday, November 8      
Florida St. VIRGINIA TECH 18.0 15.0  
ARKANSAS ST. UL-Monroe 2.0 5.5  
         
Friday, November 9      
Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT 7.3 9.5  
         
Saturday, November 10      
MICHIGAN Northwestern 16.6 11.5  
CLEMSON Maryland 27.7 27.0  
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Wake Forest 6.9 8.0  
RUTGERS Army 21.1 19.0  
Louisville SYRACUSE 0.5 10.0  
Miami (Fl) VIRGINIA 1.7 11.0  
Minnesota ILLINOIS 2.8 4.5  
Wisconsin INDIANA 12.7 5.5  
IOWA Purdue 2.2 10.0  
OLE MISS Vanderbilt 0.0 1.5  
NORTH CAROLINA Georgia Tech 9.5 18.5  
Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 1.8 8.5  
Kent St. MIAMI (O) 9.3 11.0  
B Y U Idaho 41.6 37.5  
AKRON Massachusetts 12.4 11.5  
Western Michigan BUFFALO 6.4 4.0  
ALABAMA Texas A&M 13.9 11.0  
Georgia AUBURN 17.5 26.5  
NEBRASKA Penn St. 10.4 7.0  
Notre Dame BOSTON COLLEGE 27.1 26.5  
SOUTHERN CAL Arizona St. 15.4 16.5  
Utah WASHINGTON 1.0 -6.0  
Wyoming NEW MEXICO 1.0 -7.0  
San Jose St. NEW MEXICO ST. 21.2 25.5  
Oregon CALIFORNIA 23.9 26.5  
OKLAHOMA ST. West Virginia 14.9 12.0  
Kansas St. T C U 15.6 16.5  
Cincinnati TEMPLE 12.3 10.5  
TENNESSEE Missouri 3.0 2.0  
TEXAS Iowa St. 9.2 10.0  
SAN DIEGO ST. Air Force 13.4 18.5  
S M U Southern Miss. 13.8 20.0  
Marshall U A B 3.3 1.5  
Tulsa HOUSTON 6.9 12.0  
U n l v COLORADO ST. 1.2 0.5  
Boise St. HAWAII 25.2 25.5  
U c l a WASHINGTON ST. 18.1 20.5  
Central Florida U T E P 15.5 18.5  
ARIZONA Colorado 33.4 19.0  
SOUTH CAROLINA Arkansas 22.6 17.0  
TEXAS TECH Kansas 20.7 20.5  
Louisiana Tech TEXAS ST. 25.6 20.0  
OKLAHOMA Baylor 21.6 19.0  
MEMPHIS Tulane 0.6 -4.0  
STANFORD Oregon St. 7.4 12.5  
L S U Mississippi St. 20.1 14.5  
Fresno St. NEVADA 3.6 3.5  
WESTERN KENTUCKY Florida Atlantic 20.2 17.0  
Navy TROY 1.8 9.0  
NORTH TEXAS South Alabama 14.8 5.5  
FLORIDA UL-Lafayette 31.5 32.5  

 

Let’s Go Bowling

As of today, we project exactly 70 teams to finish bowl eligible, which is the exact number needed to fill 35 bowl games.  We project that 11 of these bowl bids will go to at-large teams needed to fill spots not provided by the conference tie-ins.

 

Because of this, two conferences should see a bonanza of bowl invitations.  The Mid-American Conference and the Sunbelt Conference are projected to provide seven additional teams to the bowls.  When you add the bowl tie-ins from those two leagues, it brings the total to 12 invited teams (seven from the MAC and five from the SBC).  That means that better than one out of every six bowl invitations will go to members from one of these conferences.

 

Our bowl projections are always different from others you may find online.  We don’t just project the bowls based on current standings or even projected standings.  We look at the political, geographical, and historical aspects and then search for additional evidence that might give us a clue or two.

 

For instance, this year we will rely more on geographical aspects when the opportunity exists to favor one team over another based on proximity to the host city.  It is our opinion that bowls would rather fill their stands with local teams or teams within driving distance of the city than teams that would fill hotel rooms. 

 

For instance, the WAC has just one bowl tie-in—the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl goes to the league champion.  As of this writing, we project Louisiana Tech to win out and finish 11-1.  However, we see an opportunity to put more seats in stadiums and project the folks in Boise, Idaho, to take Utah State.  That would leave La. Tech to fill an at-large spot in the Independence Bowl.

 

The BCS Bowls

As of today, we have Alabama, Kansas State, Oregon, and Notre Dame finishing undefeated.  If this happens, Alabama and Kansas State will be facing off for the national championship.

 

We have Florida State, Louisville, and Nebraska joining the quartet above as automatic qualifiers, which leaves three teams to fill at-large spots in BCS Bowls.  Since Boise State lost and fell out of contention, we are going with Clemson, Oklahoma, and LSU to be those three teams.  The SEC could send Georgia or Florida, but we believe the Sugar Bowl will want LSU instead.

 

Oregon and Nebraska would be contractually bound for the Rose Bowl, and Florida State would go to the Orange Bowl.  Here is how we see the rest of the BCS Bowls to pan out.

 

The National Championship Game would pit Alabama and Kansas State.  That means the Sugar Bowl would get first choice to select a team, and the Fiesta Bowl would get the second choice.  In 2012-13, the order of picking teams would then go Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.

 

This is where we believe the Sugar Bowl would take LSU to guarantee a sold out stadium in New Orleans.  The Fiesta Bowl would then bypass a Big 12 team with Notre Dame available.  The Fiesta Bowl would then choose again, but they would be forced to bypass Oklahoma because they have already played the Fighting Irish.  This would leave them with Clemson.  The Sugar Bowl would then take Oklahoma, which means they would be marrying the Big 12 and SEC just after the two leagues settled on the Sugar Bowl for the future.  That leaves Louisville for the Orange Bowl.

 

Here is our list in full.

 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC # 4/5 Nevada Pac12 #7 / WAC Arizona
Famous Idaho Potato MAC #3 Northern Illinois WAC #1/2 Utah St.
Poinsettia MWC #2 Fresno St. BYU/WAC B Y U
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 (UL-Lafayette) C-USA #2-5 (4) East Carolina
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 Arkansas St. C-USA #2-5 (5) (San Jose St.)
MAACO MWC #1 Boise St. Pac 12 #5 U C L A
Hawaii MWC #3/Hawaii San Diego St. C-USA #2-5 (2) Tulsa
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 (Western Ky.) MAC #1 Kent St.
Military ACC #8 (Bowling Green) Army/CUSA (Arizona St.)
Belk ACC #5 Duke Big East #3 Rutgers
Holiday Pac 12 #3 Washington Big 12 #5 Oklahoma St.
Independence ACC #6/7 (7) (Ball St.) SEC #10 (La. Tech)
Russell Athletic Big East #2 Cincinnati ACC #3 North Carolina St.
Meineke Car Care of Texas Big 12 #6 T C U Big 10 #6 Minnesota
Armed Forces C-USA #3 S M U MWC #4-5 Air Force
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 12 #6 Oregon St. Navy/ACC Navy
Pinstripe Big East #4 Pittsburgh Big 12 #7 Iowa St.
Alamo Big 12 #3 Texas Tech Pac 12 #2 Stanford
Buffalo Wild Wings Big 12 #4 West Virginia Big 10 #4 or 5 Northwestern
Music City SEC # 7 Vanderbilt ACC #6 (Middle Tennessee)
Sun ACC #4 Virginia Tech Pac 12 #4 Southern Cal
Liberty SEC#8-9/BigEast Ole Miss C-USA #1 Central Fla.
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 South Carolina ACC #2 Miami-Fla
Heart of Dallas Big 10 #7 (Western Mich.) Big 12 #8 (Utah)
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan St. SEC #6 Mississippi St.
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan SEC #2 Georgia
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Florida Big 10 #3 Wisconsin
Rose BCS Pac12 Oregon BCS Big 10 Nebraska
Orange BCS ACC Florida St. BCS At-Large Louisville
Sugar BCS SEC L S U BCS At-Large Oklahoma
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Notre Dame BCS At-Large Clemson
Cotton Big 12 #2 Texas SEC #3 or 4 Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Big East#5/CUSA (Ohio U) SEC #8 or 9 Tennessee
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 UL-Monroe MAC #2 Toledo
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Alabama *** BCS #2 *** Kansas St.

 

November 1, 2012

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–November 1-5, 2012

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:22 am

Even though we are coming off a hot month with our college picks, we don’t feel comfortable with a lot of the lines this week.  We anticipate what the lines will be, and this week, they were too close to what we thought they would be.  So, we will rely more on the teasers this week.

 

As for the NFL, we cannot get out of the mediocrity range, hovering at 50%.  Maybe the second half of the season will give us some better results now that we have started to notice certain trends.  We actually like the pro selections more than the college selections this week.

 

College

1. Penn State -3 ½ vs. Purdue

2. Clemson -13 vs. Duke

3. Kansas State -9 ½ vs. Oklahoma State

4. UCLA -3 ½ vs. Arizona

5. New Mexico +4 vs. UNLV

 

6. 10-point Teaser

Western Kentucky +1 vs. Middle Tennessee

Miami-FL +11 vs. Virginia Tech

Washington +14 ½ vs. California

 

7. 10-point Teaser

Kent State -9 vs. Akron

Kentucky +17 vs. Vanderbilt

Iowa +12 vs. Indiana

 

8. 10-point Teaser

Tulsa +18 vs. Arkansas

Colorado St. +18 vs. Wyoming

Missouri +27 ½ vs. Florida

 

9. 10-point Teaser

Michigan St. +12 vs. Nebraska

Notre Dame -6 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Central Florida -2 vs. SMU

 

10. 10-point Teaser

Miami-OH +13 ½ vs. Buffalo

Utah -2 vs. Washington State

Oklahoma -1 vs. Iowa State

 

11. 10-point Teaser

New Mexico +14 vs. UNLV

Navy -6 vs. Florida Atlantic

Louisiana-Monroe – ½ vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

 

N F L

1. 13-point Teaser

San Diego +5 ½ vs. Kansas City

Denver +9 ½ vs. Cincinnati

Green Bay +2 vs. Arizona

Miami +10 ½ vs. Indianapolis

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis +15 ½ vs. Miami

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Houston +2 ½ vs. Buffalo

Washington +10 vs. Carolina

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Jacksonville +16 ½ vs. Detroit

Chicago +10 vs. Tennessee

Seattle +18 vs. Minnesota

Oakland +11 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Detroit +9 ½ vs. Jacksonville

Pittsburgh +16 ½ vs. NY Giants

Atlanta +9 vs. Dallas

New Orleans +10 vs. Philadelphia

 

5. Money Line Parlay (at -100)

Atlanta over Dallas

San Diegoover Kansas City

October 31, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 1-3, 2012

The PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate
1 Alabama 135.2
2 Kansas St. 130.8
3 Oregon   130.2
4 Oklahoma 129.0
5 Notre Dame 127.0
6 L S U   125.1
7 Florida St. 124.4
8 Oklahoma St. 122.8
9 South Carolina 122.6
10 Florida 122.2
11 Texas A&M 121.8
12 U S C 120.7
13 Georgia 120.0
14 Clemson   118.8
15 Michigan 116.4
16 Stanford 115.8
17 Nebraska 115.5
18 Texas 115.5
19 Texas Tech 115.3
20 B Y U 113.8
21 Arizona 113.3
22 Ohio St. 112.9
23 Wisconsin   112.3
24 T C U 112.2
25 Oregon St. 112.2
26 West Virginia 110.9
27 Iowa St. 110.8
28 U C L A 110.8
29 Michigan St. 110.6
30 Mississippi St. 110.5
31 Tennessee 110.0
32 North Carolina 109.9
33 Baylor 109.1
34 Arizona St. 108.6
35 Utah 108.6
36 Boise St. 108.2
37 Missouri 108.1
38 Ole Miss 107.5
39 Louisiana Tech   107.1
40 Vanderbilt 106.9
41 Rutgers 106.1
42 California 106.0
43 Penn St. 105.9
44 Washington 105.4
45 Central Florida 105.0
46 Louisville 104.3
47 Virginia Tech 104.2
48 Utah St. 103.7
49 North Carolina St. 103.5
50 Northwestern 103.3
51 Arkansas 102.8
52 Tulsa 102.6
53 Syracuse 102.2
54 Fresno St. 102.2
55 Georgia Tech 102.0
56 Cincinnati 101.9
57 Northern Illinois   101.9
58 Pittsburgh 101.3
59 Purdue 101.1
60 South Florida 100.8
61 Toledo 100.6
62 Miami-FL 100.0
63 Auburn 100.0
64 Duke 99.9
65 Louisiana-Monroe 99.1
66 Kent St. 99.0
67 Iowa 98.3
68 Maryland 97.6
69 Western Kentucky 97.6
70 Kansas 97.4
71 Minnesota 97.3
72 San Diego St. 97.3
73 S M U 97.2
74 San Jose St. 97.2
75 Washington St. 96.5
76 Indiana 96.1
77 Nevada 96.1
78 Ball St. 96.0
79 BostonCollege 95.5
80 Houston 94.9
81 Bowling Green 94.5
82 Wake Forest 94.4
83 Navy 93.9
84 Connecticut 93.5
85 Virginia 93.0
86 Western Michigan 92.9
87 Arkansas St. 92.7
88 East Carolina 92.4
89 Illinois 91.6
90 Ohio U 91.6
91 Air Force 91.6
92 Kentucky 91.1
93 Marshall 90.8
94 UL-Lafayette 89.6
95 Rice 89.5
96 North Texas 88.8
97 Temple 88.5
98 U T E P 88.2
99 Troy 87.5
100 Wyoming 86.7
101 New Mexico 86.5
102 Southern Mississippi   85.9
103 Miami (O) 85.7
104 Army 84.6
105 Central Michigan 84.5
106 Middle Tennessee 84.3
107 Buffalo 83.7
108 Florida International 83.3
109 U A B 82.7
110 Eastern Michigan 82.0
111 UNLV 81.8
112 Colorado St. 81.4
113 Colorado 80.7
114 Texas St. 78.6
115 Florida Atlantic 77.4
116 Hawaii 77.2
117 Tulane 76.1
118 Idaho 76.0
119 U T S A 75.2
120 New Mexico St. 74.9
121 South Alabama 74.8
122 Memphis 74.1
123 Akron 73.8
124 Massachusetts 67.8

 

The PiRate Vintage Ratings

# Team Vintage
1 Alabama 129.5
2 Kansas St. 126.5
3 Oregon 125.5
4 Notre Dame 124.0
5 Georgia  124.0
6 Florida  123.0
7 L S U 122.5
8 Florida St. 122.0
9 Ohio St. 121.5
10 Texas A&M 120.5
11 S. Carolina 119.0
12 Clemson 118.0
13 Oklahoma 118.0
14 Boise St. 117.5
15 Stanford 116.5
16 B Y U 116.0
17 Oklahoma St. 115.5
18 U S C 115.0
19 Nebraska 115.0
20 Miss. State 113.0
21 Michigan 113.0
22 U C L A 111.5
23 N. Carolina 111.5
24 Ole Miss 111.0
25 Penn St. 110.5
26 Texas Tech 110.5
27 Michigan St. 110.0
28 Louisville 109.5
29 Wisconsin 109.5
30 Arizona 109.5
31 Northwestern 109.0
32 West Virginia 109.0
33 N.C. St. 109.0
34 Washington 108.5
35 Miami 108.5
36 Tennessee 108.0
37 Oregon St. 107.5
38 Vanderbilt 107.0
39 Va. Tech 106.5
40 Texas 106.5
41 Rutgers 106.0
42 S.D. St. 106.0
43 Arizona St. 106.0
44 Kent St. 105.0
45 Fresno St. 105.0
46 Cincinnati 104.5
47 Iowa St. 104.0
48 Arkansas 104.0
49 La. Tech 103.5
50 Missouri 103.5
51 T C U 103.5
52 Utah St. 103.0
53 Utah 103.0
54 N I U 102.5
55 Air Force 102.5
56 Tulsa 102.0
57 U C F 102.0
58 Baylor 101.5
59 Syracuse 101.5
60 Iowa 100.5
61 Duke 100.5
62 Maryland 100.0
63 Toledo 99.5
64 Nevada 99.5
65 Pittsburgh 99.0
66 Minnesota 99.0
67 U L M 98.0
68 B G U 98.0
69 Indiana 98.0
70 S.J. St. 98.0
71 S M U 98.0
72 Georgia Tech 98.0
73 Ohio U 97.5
74 California 97.0
75 New Mexico 97.0
76 Boston Coll. 96.5
77 Navy 96.0
78 Auburn 96.0
79 Miami (O) 96.0
80 Wake Forest 95.5
81 Western Ky. 95.0
82 Ball St. 95.0
83 Houston 95.0
84 Temple 94.5
85 Virginia 94.0
86 Ark. St. 93.5
87 Kentucky 93.5
88 Kansas 93.0
89 Purdue 92.5
90 Washington St. 92.0
91 Connecticut 91.0
92 E C U 91.0
93 Illinois 90.5
94 W M U 90.0
95 C M U 89.5
96 S. Florida 89.5
97 Colorado 89.5
98 Texas St. 89.0
99 Colo. St. 88.5
100 U L L 88.0
101 Marshall 87.0
102 Rice 87.0
103 MTSU 87.0
104 UTSA 86.0
105 UNLV 85.0
106 Tulane 84.5
107 Army 84.5
108 Buffalo 84.5
109 U T E P 84.0
110 Troy 83.0
111 N. Texas 82.5
112 U A B 82.0
113 Akron 82.0
114 E M U 82.0
115 Wyoming 81.5
116 Sou. Miss. 81.5
117 F I U 81.0
118 F A U 79.5
119 Hawaii 79.5
120 Memphis 79.0
121 S. Alabama 79.0
122 Idaho 77.5
123 U. Mass. 75.5
124 N. Mex. St. 75.0

 

Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Florida St. 5-1 8-1 124.4 122.0
Clemson   4-1 7-1 118.8 118.0
North Carolina St. 2-2 5-3 103.5 109.0
Maryland 2-2 4-4 97.6 100.0
Boston College 1-4 2-6 95.5 96.5
Wake Forest 2-4 4-4 94.4 95.5
         
Coastal Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
North Carolina 3-2 6-3 109.9 111.5
Virginia Tech 2-2 4-4 104.2 106.5
Georgia Tech 2-3 3-5 102.0 98.0
Miami-FL 3-2 5-3 100.0 108.5
Duke 3-2 6-3 99.9 100.5
Virginia 0-4 2-6 93.0 94.0
         
         
Conference Means 104.30   103.60 105.0

 

 

Big East Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Rutgers 4-0 7-1 106.1 106.0
Louisville 3-0 8-0 104.3 109.5
Syracuse 3-1 4-4 102.2 101.5
Cincinnati 1-1 5-2 101.9 104.5
Pittsburgh 1-3 4-4 101.3 99.0
South Florida 0-4 2-6 100.8 89.5
Connecticut 0-3 3-5 93.5 91.0
Temple 2-2 3-4 88.5 94.5
         
         
Conference Means 99.6313   99.83 99.4

 

 

Big Ten
         
Leaders Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Ohio St. 5-0 9-0 112.9 121.5
Wisconsin   3-2 6-3 112.3 109.5
Penn St. 3-1 5-3 105.9 110.5
Purdue 0-4 3-5 101.1 92.5
Indiana 1-3 3-5 96.1 98.0
Illinois 0-4 2-6 91.6 90.5
         
Legends Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Michigan 3-1 5-3 116.4 113.0
Nebraska 3-1 6-2 115.5 115.0
Michigan St. 2-3 5-4 110.6 110.0
Northwestern 3-2 7-2 103.3 109.0
Iowa 2-2 4-4 98.3 100.5
Minnesota 1-3 5-3 97.3 99.0
         
Conference Means 105.429   105.11 105.8

 

 

Big 12
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kansas St. 5-0 8-0 130.8 126.5
Oklahoma 3-1 5-2 129.0 118.0
Oklahoma St. 3-1 5-2 122.8 115.5
Texas 3-2 6-2 115.5 106.5
Texas Tech 3-2 6-2 115.3 110.5
T C U 2-3 5-3 112.2 103.5
West Virginia 2-2 5-2 110.9 109.0
Iowa St. 2-3 5-3 110.8 104.0
Baylor 0-4 3-4 109.1 101.5
Kansas 0-5 1-7 97.4 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.09   115.38 108.8

 

 

Conference USA
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Central Florida 4-0 6-2 105.0 102.0
East Carolina 4-1 5-4 92.4 91.0
Marshall 2-2 3-5 90.8 87.0
Southern Mississippi   0-4 0-8 85.9 81.5
U A B 0-4 1-7 82.7 82.0
Memphis 1-3 1-7 74.1 79.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Tulsa 5-0 7-1 102.6 102.0
S M U 3-1 4-4 97.2 98.0
Houston 3-1 4-4 94.9 95.0
Rice 1-4 3-6 89.5 87.0
U T E P 1-4 2-7 88.2 84.0
Tulane 2-2 2-6 76.1 84.5
         
         
Conference Means 89.6833   89.95 89.4

 

 

Independents
         
Team   Overall Rating Vintage
Notre Dame   8-0 127.0 124.0
B Y U   5-4 113.8 116.0
Navy   5-3 93.9 96.0
Army   1-7 84.6 84.5
         
         
Conference Means 104.975   104.83 105.1

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kent St. 4-0 7-1 99.0 105.0
Bowling Green 4-1 6-3 94.5 98.0
Ohio U 3-1 7-1 91.6 97.5
Miami (O) 3-1 4-4 85.7 96.0
Buffalo 0-4 1-7 83.7 84.5
Akron 0-5 1-8 73.8 82.0
Massachusetts 0-4 0-8 67.8 75.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Northern Illinois   5-0 8-1 101.9 102.5
Toledo 5-0 8-1 100.6 99.5
Ball St. 3-2 6-3 96.0 95.0
Western Michigan 1-4 3-6 92.9 90.0
Central Michigan 1-3 3-5 84.5 89.5
Eastern Michigan 0-4 1-7 82.0 82.0
         
         
Conference Means 90.4231   88.77 92.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Boise St. 4-0 7-1 108.2 117.5
Fresno St. 4-1 6-3 102.2 105.0
San Diego St. 4-1 6-3 97.3 106.0
Nevada 3-2 6-3 96.1 99.5
Air Force 4-1 5-3 91.6 102.5
Wyoming 0-4 1-7 86.7 81.5
New Mexico 1-3 4-5 86.5 97.0
UNLV 1-3 1-8 81.8 85.0
Colorado St. 1-3 2-6 81.4 88.5
Hawaii 0-4 1-6 77.2 79.5
         
         
Conference Means 93.55   90.90 96.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oregon   5-0 8-0 130.2 125.5
Stanford 4-1 6-2 115.8 116.5
Oregon St. 4-1 6-1 112.2 107.5
California 2-4 3-6 106.0 97.0
Washington 2-3 4-4 105.4 108.5
Washington St. 0-5 2-6 96.5 92.0
         
South Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
U S C 4-2 6-2 120.7 115.0
Arizona 2-3 5-3 113.3 109.5
U C L A 3-2 6-2 110.8 111.5
Arizona St. 3-2 5-3 108.6 106.0
Utah 1-4 3-5 108.6 103.0
Colorado 1-4 1-7 80.7 89.5
         
         
Conference Means 107.929   109.07 106.8

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
South Carolina 5-2 7-2 122.6 119.0
Florida 6-1 7-1 122.2 123.0
Georgia 5-1 7-1 120.0 124.0
Tennessee 0-5 3-5 110.0 108.0
Missouri 1-4 4-4 108.1 103.5
Vanderbilt 2-3 4-4 106.9 107.0
Kentucky 0-6 1-8 91.1 93.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Alabama 5-0 8-0 135.2 129.5
L S U   3-1 7-1 125.1 122.5
Texas A&M 3-2 6-2 121.8 120.5
Mississippi St. 3-1 7-1 110.5 113.0
Ole Miss 2-2 5-3 107.5 111.0
Arkansas 2-3 3-5 102.8 104.0
Auburn 0-6 1-7 100.0 96.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.796   113.13 112.5

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana-Monroe 4-0 6-2 99.1 98.0
Western Kentucky 3-1 6-2 97.6 95.0
Arkansas St. 3-1 5-3 92.7 93.5
UL-Lafayette 2-2 4-3 89.6 88.0
North Texas 2-2 3-5 88.8 82.5
Troy 3-3 4-4 87.5 83.0
Middle Tennessee 3-1 5-3 84.3 87.0
Florida International 0-5 1-8 83.3 81.0
FloridaAtlantic 1-4 2-6 77.4 79.5
South Alabama 1-3 2-6 74.8 79.0
         
         
Conference Means 87.08   87.51 86.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana Tech   2-0 7-1 107.1 103.5
Utah St. 3-0 7-2 103.7 103.0
San Jose St. 2-1 6-2 97.2 98.0
Texas St. 1-1 3-4 78.6 89.0
Idaho 1-2 1-7 76.0 77.5
U T S A 1-2 5-3 75.2 86.0
New Mexico St. 0-4 1-7 74.9 75.0
         
         
Conference Means 88.9071   87.53 90.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage Line
Thursday, November 1      
OHIO U Eastern Michigan 12.1 18.0 17   
Virginia Tech MIAMI (FLA) 1.2 -5.0 1 1/2
WESTERN KENTUCKY Middle Tennessee 15.8 10.5 9   
         
Friday, November 2      
CALIFORNIA Washington 3.6 -8.5 4   
         
Saturday, November 3      
Penn St. PURDUE 1.8 15.0 3 1/2
Air Force ARMY 4.0 15.0 7 1/2
KENT ST. Akron 27.7 25.5 19 1/2
Vanderbilt KENTUCKY 12.8 10.5 7   
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Massachusetts 37.1 30.0 35   
LOUISVILLE Temple 18.8 18.0 15 1/2
WAKE FOREST Boston College 1.9 2.0 3 1/2
EAST CAROLINA Houston 0.5 -1.0 -3 1/2
INDIANA Iowa 0.8 0.5 1 1/2
Georgia Tech MARYLAND 1.4 -5.0 7 1/2
Clemson DUKE 15.9 14.5 13 1/2
ARKANSAS Tulsa 3.2 5.0 7 1/2
AUBURN New Mexico St. 28.6 24.5 22 1/2
Stanford COLORADO 32.1 24.0 28   
UTAH ST. Texas St. 28.1 17.0 26   
Alabama L S U 6.6 3.5 9 1/2
WYOMING Colorado St. 8.3 -4.0 8   
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Virginia 13.5 18.0 9 1/2
OREGON ST. Arizona St. 6.6 4.5 4 1/2
FLORIDA Missouri 17.1 22.5 17   
Nebraska MICHIGAN ST. 1.9 2.0 2   
WEST VIRGINIA T c u 1.7 8.5 6 1/2
OHIO ST. Illinois 24.3 34.0 27 1/2
NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh 29.2 28.5 16 1/2
LOUISIANA TECH U t s a 34.9 20.5 32   
San Jose St. IDAHO 18.7 18.0 19   
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 10.8 7.0 12   
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 10.3 13.5 8 1/2
Western Michigan CENTRAL MICHIGAN 5.9 -2.0 2 1/2
BUFFALO Miami (O) 0.5 -9.0 3 1/2
GEORGIA Ole Miss 15.5 16.0 14   
CINCINNATI Syracuse 2.7 6.0 4 1/2
UTAH Washington St. 15.1 14.0 11 1/2
SOUTHERN MISS. U a b 5.7 2.0 3   
MARSHALL Memphis 19.7 11.0 20 1/2
Michigan MINNESOTA 16.1 11.0 12 1/2
KANSAS ST. Oklahoma St. 11.0 14.0 9 1/2
TEXAS TECH Texas 2.8 7.0 7 1/2
Texas A&M MISSISSIPPI ST. 8.3 4.5 7   
BAYLOR Kansas 14.7 11.5 18 1/2
Oklahoma IOWA ST. 15.2 11.0 11 1/2
Oregon SOUTHERN CAL 6.0 7.0 8   
Rice TULANE 10.9 0.0 4 1/2
FRESNO ST. Hawaii 28.5 29.0 34 1/2
U C L A Arizona 0.5 5.0 3 1/2
New Mexico U N L V 2.2 9.5 -4   
BOISE ST. San Diego St. 13.9 14.5 13 1/2
NAVY Florida Atlantic 19.5 19.5 16   
Florida Int’l SOUTH ALABAMA 6.0 -0.5 3 1/2
TENNESSEE Troy 25.5 28.0 18 1/2
Arkansas St. NORTH TEXAS 1.4 8.5 6   
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 11.5 12.0 10   

 

This Weeks Bowl Speculation

Teams in (Parentheses) are at-large selections 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC # 4/5 New Mexico Pac12 #7 / WAC Washington
Famous Idaho Potato MAC #3 Northern Illinois WAC #1/2 Louisiana Tech
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. BYU/WAC B Y U
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 (Bowling Green) C-USA #2-5 (4) East Carolina
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 Western Kentucky C-USA #2-5 (5) S M U
MAACO MWC #1 Nevada Pac 12 #5 Arizona
Hawaii MWC #3/Hawaii Fresno St. C-USA #2-5 (2) Tulsa
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 (Middle Tennessee) MAC #1 Kent St.
Military ACC #8 (Utah St.) Army/CUSA (Central Michigan)
Belk ACC #5 Virginia Tech Big East #3 Cincinnati
Holiday Pac 12 #3 Southern Cal Big 12 #5 West Va.
Independence ACC #6/7 (7) (San Jose St.) SEC #10 (Miami-OH)
Russell Athletic Big East #2 Rutgers ACC #3 Miami-Fla
Meineke Car Care of Texas Big 12 #6 Iowa St. Big 10 #6 Minnesota
Armed Forces C-USA #3 Houston MWC #4-5 Air Force
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 12 #6 U C L A Navy/ACC Navy
Pinstripe Big East #4 Pittsburgh Big 12 #7 (Arizona St.)
Alamo Big 12 #3 Texas Pac 12 #2 Stanford
Buffalo Wild Wings Big 12 #4 Oklahoma St. Big 10 #4 or 5 Northwestern
MusicCity SEC # 7 Ole Miss ACC #6 Duke
Sun ACC #4 North Carolina St. Pac 12 #4 Oregon St.
Liberty SEC#8-9/BigEast Tennessee C-USA #1 Central Fla.
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 Texas A&M ACC #2 Clemson
Heart of Dallas Big 10 #7 (Ohio U) Big 12 #8 (Arkansas St.)
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Wisconsin SEC #6 Mississippi St.
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. SEC #2 Florida
Outback SEC #3 or 4 South Carolina Big 10 #3 Michigan
Rose BCS Pac12 Oregon BCS Big 10 Nebraska
Orange BCS ACC Florida St. BCS At-Large Louisville
Sugar BCS SEC Notre Dame BCS At-Large Boise St.
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma BCS At-Large Georgia
Cotton Big 12 #2 Texas Tech SEC #3 or 4 L S U
BBVA Compass Big East#5/CUSA (Ball St.) SEC #8 or 9 Vanderbilt
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 UL-Monroe MAC #2 Toledo
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Alabama *** BCS #2 *** Kansas St.

 

October 24, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 23-27, 2012

This Week’s PiRate and PiRate Vintage Ratings

 

PiRate

# Team PiRate
1 Alabama 134.5
2 Oklahoma 132.6
3 Oregon   129.4
4 Kansas St. 128.7
5 L S U   125.1
6 South Carolina 124.4
7 Florida 124.3
8 Notre Dame 123.0
9 Florida St. 122.6
10 U S C 122.4
11 Oklahoma St. 122.1
12 Michigan 118.7
13 Texas A&M 118.5
14 Clemson   117.6
15 Georgia 117.6
16 Texas Tech 117.4
17 Stanford 117.1
18 Texas 117.1
19 Oregon St. 113.5
20 Wisconsin   113.5
21 T C U 113.2
22 Nebraska 112.9
23 Ohio St. 112.0
24 Arizona 111.3
25 Mississippi St. 111.2
26 B Y U 111.1
27 West Virginia 110.9
28 Baylor 110.3
29 U C L A 110.0
30 North Carolina 109.8
31 Iowa St. 109.6
32 Michigan St. 109.4
33 Rutgers 109.1
34 Arizona St. 109.1
35 Louisiana Tech   109.1
36 Tennessee 108.0
37 Missouri 107.9
38 California 107.4
39 Utah 107.3
40 Ole Miss 107.2
41 Penn St. 106.8
42 Vanderbilt 106.6
43 Boise St. 105.7
44 Georgia Tech 105.3
45 Louisville 104.9
46 Virginia Tech 104.2
47 Auburn 103.9
48 Washington 103.8
49 North Carolina St. 103.6
50 Purdue 103.2
51 Arkansas 103.1
52 Utah St. 102.9
53 Northwestern 102.7
54 Tulsa 102.6
55 Duke 101.8
56 Fresno St. 101.7
57 Syracuse 101.7
58 Northern Illinois   101.4
59 Toledo 101.3
60 Cincinnati 101.3
61 South Florida 101.3
62 Central Florida 101.3
63 Louisiana-Monroe 100.4
64 Miami-FL 100.0
65 Pittsburgh 99.9
66 Iowa 98.9
67 Nevada 98.9
68 Maryland 98.4
69 Western Kentucky 98.3
70 San Jose St. 98.0
71 San Diego St. 97.8
72 S M U 96.3
73 Kansas 96.2
74 Ball St. 95.9
75 Wake Forest 95.7
76 Kent St. 95.5
77 Washington St. 95.5
78 Indiana 95.3
79 Minnesota 95.3
80 East Carolina 95.3
81 Marshall 95.0
82 Boston College 94.8
83 Houston 94.6
84 Bowling Green 93.8
85 Connecticut 93.5
86 Western Michigan 93.4
87 Ohio U 93.2
88 Virginia 93.0
89 UL-Lafayette 92.5
90 Illinois 92.5
91 Kentucky 91.3
92 Navy 90.5
93 Troy 90.3
94 Temple 90.2
95 Arkansas St. 89.9
96 North Texas 89.8
97 Wyoming 88.9
98 Southern Mississippi   88.9
99 Air Force 88.6
100 U T E P 88.5
101 New Mexico 87.0
102 Rice 86.8
103 U A B 85.6
104 Army 84.7
105 Miami (O) 83.9
106 Central Michigan 83.8
107 Middle Tennessee 83.3
108 Buffalo 82.7
109 Eastern Michigan 82.7
110 Florida International 82.6
111 Colorado 81.5
112 UNLV 81.3
113 Colorado St. 80.6
114 Hawaii 78.0
115 Texas St. 77.8
116 U T S A 76.0
117 Idaho 76.0
118 Memphis 75.0
119 Florida Atlantic 74.9
120 Akron 74.5
121 Tulane 73.7
122 New Mexico St. 72.9
123 South Alabama 72.8
124 Massachusetts 68.1

 

PiRate Vintage

# Team Vintage
1 Alabama 127.5
2 Florida  125.0
3 Kansas St. 124.5
4 U S C 124.0
5 Oregon 123.5
6 Oklahoma 122.5
7 S. Carolina 121.5
8 Notre Dame 121.0
9 Georgia  120.5
10 Ohio State 120.5
11 Oregon St. 120.0
12 Florida St. 119.5
13 Michigan 119.0
14 Texas Tech 119.0
15 Miss. State 118.0
16 Penn State 118.0
17 Oklahoma St. 118.0
18 L S U 117.5
19 Stanford 117.5
20 Clemson 116.0
21 West Virginia 116.0
22 Nebraska 115.5
23 Wisconsin 114.5
24 B Y U 114.5
25 N.C. State 114.0
26 Texas 113.0
27 Texas A&M 112.5
28 Arizona St. 112.5
29 Rutgers 112.0
30 Arizona 111.0
31 Boise St. 110.5
32 T C U 110.5
33 U C L A 110.5
34 Louisville 109.5
35 Northwestern 107.5
36 Ole Miss 107.5
37 Washington 107.0
38 Cincinnati 106.5
39 La. Tech 106.5
40 Fresno St. 106.5
41 Arkansas 106.5
42 Iowa State 106.5
43 S.D. State 106.0
44 Baylor 106.0
45 Nevada 105.5
46 Michigan St. 105.5
47 Tennessee 105.5
48 California 105.5
49 Vanderbilt 104.5
50 Iowa 103.5
51 Utah 103.5
52 Tulsa 103.0
53 Va. Tech 102.5
54 Toledo 102.0
55 Utah St. 102.0
56 Duke 101.5
57 N I U 101.5
58 Syracuse 101.0
59 N. Carolina 101.0
60 Miami 101.0
61 Maryland 100.5
62 Missouri 100.5
63 Purdue 100.5
64 U C F 100.0
65 Indiana 100.0
66 S.J. State 99.5
67 Georgia Tech 99.5
68 Air Force 99.0
69 Kent St. 98.5
70 Minnesota 98.5
71 U L M 98.0
72 New Mexico 97.5
73 Temple 97.0
74 Ohio U 97.0
75 E C U 96.5
76 Wake Forest 96.0
77 Auburn 96.0
78 Marshall 96.0
79 S M U 95.5
80 B G U 95.5
81 Kansas 95.5
82 Western Ky. 95.0
83 Illinois 94.0
84 Virginia 93.5
85 Ball St. 93.0
86 Pittsburgh 93.0
87 U L L 92.5
88 Washington St. 92.5
89 Ark. State 92.0
90 S. Florida 92.0
91 Kentucky 92.0
92 Navy 91.0
93 Miami (O) 90.5
94 Boston Coll. 90.0
95 Houston 90.0
96 U A B 88.5
97 Connecticut 88.0
98 Troy 88.0
99 W M U 87.0
100 Colorado 86.0
101 Rice 85.0
102 Texas St. 84.5
103 N. Texas 84.0
104 UTSA 84.0
105 Army 83.5
106 U T E P 83.0
107 MTSU 83.0
108 F I U 81.0
109 Sou. Miss. 80.5
110 Buffalo 80.5
111 Colo. State 80.5
112 Akron 80.0
113 C M U 79.5
114 UNLV 79.5
115 E M U 79.0
116 Memphis 78.0
117 Tulane 77.0
118 Wyoming 77.0
119 Hawaii 75.0
120 U. Mass. 75.0
121 Idaho 73.5
122 S. Alabama 73.0
123 F A U 72.5
124 N. Mex. State 71.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Florida St. 4-1 7-1 122.6 119.5
Clemson   3-1 6-1 117.6 116.0
North Carolina St. 2-1 5-2 103.6 114.0
Maryland 2-1 4-3 98.4 100.5
Boston College 0-4 1-6 94.8 90.0
Wake Forest 2-3 4-3 95.7 96.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
North Carolina 2-2 5-3 109.8 101.0
Georgia Tech 2-3 3-4 105.3 99.5
Virginia Tech 2-2 4-4 104.2 102.5
Duke 3-1 6-2 101.8 101.5
Miami-FL 3-2 5-3 100.0 101.0
Virginia 0-4 2-6 93.0 93.5
         
         
Conference Means 103.41   103.90 102.9

 

 

Big East Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Rutgers 4-0 7-0 109.1 112.0
Louisville 2-0 7-0 104.9 109.5
Syracuse 2-1 3-4 101.7 101.0
Cincinnati 1-0 5-1 101.3 106.5
South Florida 0-3 2-5 101.3 92.0
Pittsburgh 0-3 3-4 99.9 93.0
Connecticut 0-3 3-5 93.5 88.0
Temple 2-1 3-3 90.2 97.0
         
         
Conference Means 100.056   100.24 99.9

 

 

Big Ten
         
Leaders Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Wisconsin   3-1 6-2 113.5 114.5
Ohio St. 4-0 8-0 112.0 120.5
Penn St. 3-0 5-2 106.8 118.0
Purdue 0-3 3-4 103.2 100.5
Indiana 0-3 2-5 95.3 100.0
Illinois 0-3 2-5 92.5 94.0
         
Legends Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Michigan 3-0 5-2 118.7 119.0
Nebraska 2-1 5-2 112.9 115.5
Michigan St. 1-3 4-4 109.4 105.5
Northwestern 2-2 6-2 102.7 107.5
Iowa 2-1 4-3 98.9 103.5
Minnesota 0-3 4-3 95.3 98.5
         
Conference Means 106.592   105.10 108.1

 

 

Big 12
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oklahoma 3-1 5-1 132.6 122.5
Kansas St. 4-0 7-0 128.7 124.5
Oklahoma St. 2-1 4-2 122.1 118.0
Texas Tech 3-1 6-1 117.4 119.0
Texas 2-2 5-2 117.1 113.0
T C U 2-2 5-2 113.2 110.5
West Virginia 2-2 5-2 110.9 116.0
Baylor 0-3 3-3 110.3 106.0
Iowa St. 1-3 4-3 109.6 106.5
Kansas 0-4 1-6 96.2 95.5
         
         
Conference Means 114.48   115.81 113.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Central Florida 3-0 5-2 101.3 100.0
East Carolina 4-1 5-3 95.3 96.5
Marshall 2-1 3-4 95.0 96.0
Southern Mississippi   0-3 0-7 88.9 80.5
U A B 0-3 1-6 85.6 88.5
Memphis 1-2 1-6 75.0 78.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Tulsa 5-0 7-1 102.6 103.0
S M U 2-1 3-4 96.3 95.5
Houston 2-1 3-4 94.6 90.0
U T E P 1-3 2-6 88.5 83.0
Rice 0-4 2-6 86.8 85.0
Tulane 1-2 1-6 73.7 77.0
         
         
Conference Means 89.8583   90.30 89.4

 

 

Independents
         
Team   Overall Rating Vintage
Notre Dame   7-0 123.0 121.0
B Y U   4-4 111.1 114.5
Navy   4-3 90.5 91.0
Army   1-6 84.7 83.5
         
         
Conference Means 102.413   102.33 102.5

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kent St. 4-0 6-1 95.5 98.5
Bowling Green 3-1 5-3 93.8 95.5
Ohio U 3-0 7-0 93.2 97.0
Miami (O) 2-1 3-4 83.9 90.5
Buffalo 0-3 1-6 82.7 80.5
Akron 0-4 1-7 74.5 80.0
Massachusetts 0-4 0-7 68.1 75.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Northern Illinois   4-0 7-1 101.4 101.5
Toledo 4-0 7-1 101.3 102.0
Ball St. 3-2 5-3 95.9 93.0
Western Michigan 1-3 3-5 93.4 87.0
Central Michigan 0-3 2-5 83.8 79.5
Eastern Michigan 0-3 1-6 82.7 79.0
         
         
Conference Means 88.8154   88.48 89.2

 

 

Mountain West Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Boise St. 3-0 6-1 105.7 110.5
Fresno St. 3-1 5-3 101.7 106.5
Nevada 3-1 6-2 98.9 105.5
San Diego St. 3-1 5-3 97.8 106.0
Wyoming 0-3 1-6 88.9 77.0
Air Force 3-1 4-3 88.6 99.0
New Mexico 1-2 4-4 87.0 97.5
UNLV 1-2 1-7 81.3 79.5
Colorado St. 0-3 1-6 80.6 80.5
Hawaii 0-3 1-5 78.0 75.0
         
         
Conference Means 92.275   90.85 93.7

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oregon   4-0 7-0 129.4 123.5
Stanford 3-1 5-2 117.1 117.5
Oregon St. 4-0 6-0 113.5 120.0
California 2-3 3-5 107.4 105.5
Washington 1-3 3-4 103.8 107.0
Washington St. 0-4 2-5 95.5 92.5
         
South Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
U S C 4-1 6-1 122.4 124.0
Arizona 1-3 4-3 111.3 111.0
U C L A 2-2 5-2 110.0 110.5
Arizona St. 3-1 5-2 109.1 112.5
Utah 0-4 2-5 107.3 103.5
Colorado 1-3 1-6 81.5 86.0
         
         
Conference Means 109.242   109.03 109.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
South Carolina 4-2 6-2 124.4 121.5
Florida 6-0 7-0 124.3 125.0
Georgia 4-1 6-1 117.6 120.5
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 108.0 105.5
Missouri 0-4 3-4 107.9 100.5
Vanderbilt 2-3 3-4 106.6 104.5
Kentucky 0-5 1-7 91.3 92.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Alabama 4-0 7-0 134.5 127.5
L S U   3-1 7-1 125.1 117.5
Texas A&M 2-2 5-2 118.5 112.5
Mississippi St. 3-0 7-0 111.2 118.0
Ole Miss 1-2 4-3 107.2 107.5
Auburn 0-5 1-6 103.9 96.0
Arkansas 2-2 3-4 103.1 106.5
         
         
Conference Means 112.093   113.11 111.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana-Monroe 3-0 5-2 100.4 98.0
Western Kentucky 2-1 5-2 98.3 95.0
UL-Lafayette 2-1 4-2 92.5 92.5
Troy 3-2 4-3 90.3 88.0
Arkansas St. 2-1 4-3 89.9 92.0
North Texas 2-1 3-4 89.8 84.0
Middle Tennessee 2-1 4-3 83.3 83.0
Florida International 0-4 1-7 82.6 81.0
Florida Atlantic 0-4 1-6 74.9 72.5
South Alabama 1-2 2-5 72.8 73.0
         
         
Conference Means 86.69   87.48 85.9

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Louisiana Tech   1-0 6-1 109.1 106.5
Utah St. 2-0 6-2 102.9 102.0
San Jose St. 1-1 5-2 98.0 99.5
Texas St. 1-0 3-3 77.8 84.5
U T S A 1-1 5-2 76.0 84.0
Idaho 1-2 1-7 76.0 73.5
New Mexico St. 0-3 1-6 72.9 71.0
         
         
Conference Means 88.1214   87.53 88.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage Line
Tuesday, October 23      
UL-LAFAYETTE Arkansas State 5.6 3.5 3 1/2
         
Thursday, October 25      
Clemson WAKE FOREST 18.9 17.0 12   
         
Friday, October 26      
LOUISVILLE Cincinnati 6.6 6.0 3 1/2
Nevada AIR FORCE 7.3 3.5 3 1/2
         
Saturday, October 27      
EAST CAROLINA Navy 7.8 8.5 4   
VANDERBILT Massachusetts 41.0 32.0 33   
Ohio U MIAMI (O) 7.3 4.5 7   
Ball St. ARMY 8.2 6.5 4 1/2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Akron 11.8 2.0 6 1/2
BOWLING GREEN Eastern Michigan 14.1 19.0 15   
Northern Illinois WESTERN MICHIGAN 5.5 12.0 7   
PITTSBURGH Temple 12.2 -1.5 6 1/2
ILLINOIS Indiana 0.2 -3.0 2   
Purdue MINNESOTA 4.9 -1.0 3   
NORTHWESTERN Iowa 6.8 7.0 6   
FLORIDA ST. Duke 23.8 21.0 28   
Maryland BOSTON COLLEGE 0.6 7.5 -1 1/2
ALABAMA Mississippi St. 26.3 12.5 24 1/2
Utah St. U T S A 24.4 15.5 23   
COLORADO ST. Hawaii 6.1 9.0 7   
IOWA ST. Baylor 2.3 3.5 2 1/2
Texas A&M AUBURN 11.6 13.5 15 1/2
UTAH California 2.9 1.0 1   
Texas KANSAS 17.9 14.5 21   
WISCONSIN Michigan St. 7.1 12.0 6   
OREGON Colorado 50.9 40.5 45 1/2
NORTH CAROLINA North Carolina St. 8.2 -11.0 7 1/2
Boise St. WYOMING 13.8 30.5 16 1/2
HOUSTON U t e p 9.1 10.0 NL
B y u GEORGIA TECH 1.8 11.0 2 1/2
Florida Georgia 6.7 4.5 6 1/2
MISSOURI Kentucky 19.6 11.5 13 1/2
ARIZONA ST. U c l a 2.1 5.0 6 1/2
Southern Cal ARIZONA 8.1 10.0 6 1/2
RUTGERS Kent St. 16.6 16.5 13 1/2
SAN JOSE ST. Texas St. 23.2 18.0 20   
STANFORD Washington St. 24.6 28.0 25   
Ohio St. PENN ST. 2.2 -0.5 1   
Oregon St. WASHINGTON 6.7 10.0 4 1/2
KANSAS ST. Texas Tech 14.3 8.5 7   
SOUTH FLORIDA Syracuse 2.6 -6.0 2 1/2
OKLAHOMA ST. T c u 11.9 9.5 7 1/2
Central Florida MARSHALL 3.3 1.0 2   
Toledo BUFFALO 16.1 19.0 7 1/2
SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee 19.4 19.0 14   
Ole Miss ARKANSAS 1.1 -2.0 6   
Louisiana Tech NEW MEXICO ST. 33.2 32.5 30 1/2
OKLAHOMA Notre Dame 12.6 4.5 10   
U a b TULANE 9.9 9.5 3   
S M U Memphis 24.3 20.5 20 1/2
RICE Southern Miss. 0.9 7.5 2   
Michigan NEBRASKA 2.3 0.0 -2   
SAN DIEGO ST. U n l v 19.5 29.5 18   
Fresno St. NEW MEXICO 11.7 6.0 13 1/2
UL-MONROE South Alabama 30.6 28.0 24 1/2
Western Kentucky FLORIDA INT’L 13.2 11.5 7   
MIDDLE TENNESSEE North Texas 6 1.5 3   
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 13.4 13.5 8   

 

Bowl Speculation

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC # 4/5 New Mexico Pac12 #7 / WAC Arizona St.
Famous Idaho Potato MAC #3 Toledo WAC #1/2 Louisiana Tech
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. BYU/WAC B Y U
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Troy * C-USA #2-5 (4) East Carolina
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 UL-Monroe C-USA #2-5 (5) Marshall
MAACO MWC #1 Nevada Pac 12 #5 Arizona
Hawaii MWC #3/Hawaii Fresno St. C-USA #2-5 (2) Central Florida
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 UL-Lafayette * MAC #1 Northern Illinois
Military ACC #8 San Jose St. * Army/CUSA Arkansas St. *
Belk ACC #5 Duke Big East #3 Cincinnati
Holiday Pac 12 #3 Oregon St. Big 12 #5 Oklahoma St.
Independence ACC #6/7 (7) Va. Tech SEC #10 Missouri
Russell Athletic Big East #2 Louisville ACC #3 North Carolina St.
Meineke Car Care of Texas Big 12 #6 Iowa St. Big 10 #6 Northwestern
Armed Forces C-USA #3 S M U MWC #4-5 Air Force
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 12 #6 U C L A Navy/ACC Navy
Pinstripe Big East #4 Washington * Big 12 #7 Utah St. *
Alamo Big 12 #3 Texas Pac 12 #2 Southern Cal
Buffalo Wild Wings Big 12 #4 West Virginia Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan St.
Music City SEC # 7 Ole Miss ACC #6 Maryland
Sun ACC #4 Miami (Fla) Pac 12 #4 Stanford
Liberty SEC#8-9/BigEast Tennessee C-USA #1 Tulsa
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 Mississippi St. ACC #2 Clemson
Heart of Dallas Big 10 #7 Minnesota Big 12 #8 Kent St. *
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Iowa SEC #6 Texas A&M
Capital One Big 10 #2 Wisconsin SEC #2 Georgia
Outback SEC #3 or 4 South Carolina Big 10 #3 Nebraska
Rose BCS Pac12 Oregon BCS Big 10 Michigan
Orange BCS ACC Florida St. BCS At-Large Rutgers
Sugar BCS SEC Florida BCS At-Large Notre Dame
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma BCS At-Large Boise St.
Cotton Big 12 #2 Texas Tech SEC #3 or 4 L S U
BBVA Compass Big East#5/CUSA Bowling Green * SEC #8 or 9 Vanderbilt
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Western Kentucky MAC #2 Ohio U
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Alabama *** BCS #2 *** Kansas St.

 

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