The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 29, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 29, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:38 am
HomeVisitorSpread
BelmontDrake-0.2
CanisiusManhattan5.1
Cleveland St.IUPUI19.8
East CarolinaWichita St.-1.8
FairfieldRider1.6
George MasonSaint Joseph’s6.6
Illinois ChicagoBradley9.8
Illinois St.Southern Illinois-5.3
IonaQuinnipiac7.7
IowaRutgers1.2
LehighBoston U.1.9
MaristSiena-4.5
Penn St.Michigan3.6
PurdueMichigan St.8.7
Robert MorrisOakland2.8
SMUSouth Florida1.1
St. John’sGeorgetown13.2
TulsaMemphis-13.1
UNC GreensboroFurman0.4
VillanovaProvidence-0.6
Youngstown St.Detroit8.3

January 20, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Friday, January 20, 2023

Friday’s Spreads

HomeVisitorSpread
BuffaloToledo-3.6
FairfieldCanisius3.9
Fairleigh DickinsonSacred Heart4.0
Kent St.Ball St.9.4
Long IslandStonehill College-6.3
ManhattanIona-13.5
MaristSaint Peter’s2.1
New MexicoBoise St.1.0
RichmondVCU0.4
RiderNiagara5.2
SienaMount St. Mary’s8.2
St. Francis (PA)St. Francis (NY)5.5
St. John’sVillanova5.0
WagnerCentral Connecticut St.5.2

Friday’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateConference
1Houston121.3American Athletic
2Tennessee120.5Southeastern
3Alabama120.1Southeastern
4UCLA119.2Pac-12
5Connecticut117.4Big East
6Kansas117.2Big 12
7Purdue117.0Big Ten
8Gonzaga115.9West Coast
9Texas115.4Big 12
10Saint Mary’s115.1West Coast
11Arizona115.0Pac-12
12Baylor114.7Big 12
13Iowa St.114.6Big 12
14Creighton114.5Big East
15Marquette114.3Big East
16Xavier114.2Big East
17Auburn114.1Southeastern
18Indiana113.9Big Ten
19Virginia113.7Atlantic Coast
20Rutgers113.6Big Ten
21Arkansas113.5Southeastern
22North Carolina113.1Atlantic Coast
23Ohio St.113.0Big Ten
24Iowa113.0Big Ten
25TCU112.9Big 12
26Illinois112.8Big Ten
27West Virginia112.5Big 12
28Duke112.4Atlantic Coast
29Kansas St.112.2Big 12
30Kentucky112.1Southeastern
31San Diego St.111.9Mountain West
32Boise St.111.9Mountain West
33Oklahoma St.111.5Big 12
34Memphis111.4American Athletic
35Michigan St.111.4Big Ten
36North Carolina St.111.4Atlantic Coast
37Florida111.3Southeastern
38Providence111.3Big East
39Maryland110.9Big Ten
40Miami (Fla)110.7Atlantic Coast
41Utah St.110.7Mountain West
42Oklahoma110.5Big 12
43Texas Tech110.4Big 12
44Penn St.110.4Big Ten
45Texas A&M110.2Southeastern
46Oregon110.1Pac-12
47Florida Atlantic110.0Conference USA
48Seton Hall110.0Big East
49Arizona St.110.0Pac-12
50New Mexico109.9Mountain West
51Virginia Tech109.9Atlantic Coast
52Missouri109.8Southeastern
53Northwestern109.7Big Ten
54Colorado109.7Pac-12
55St. John’s109.7Big East
56Michigan109.7Big Ten
57Dayton109.6Atlantic 10
58Central Florida109.5American Athletic
59Utah109.4Pac-12
60USC109.3Pac-12
61Clemson109.2Atlantic Coast
62Mississippi St.109.1Southeastern
63Cincinnati109.0American Athletic
64UAB108.8Conference USA
65Pittsburgh108.7Atlantic Coast
66Nevada108.7Mountain West
67Wisconsin108.7Big Ten
68Kent St.108.1Mid-American
69Washington St.108.1Pac-12
70Wake Forest107.8Atlantic Coast
71Villanova107.7Big East
72Liberty107.4Atlantic Sun
73Marshall107.4Sun Belt
74Sam Houston St.107.3Western Athletic
75Oral Roberts107.2Summit
76Iona107.1Metro Atlantic
77BYU107.0West Coast
78Saint Louis106.9Atlantic 10
79James Madison106.7Sun Belt
80Bradley106.7Missouri Valley
81UNLV106.6Mountain West
82Mississippi106.6Southeastern
83Charleston106.6Colonial Athletic
84Tulane106.5American Athletic
85VCU106.3Atlantic 10
86Syracuse106.3Atlantic Coast
87North Texas106.2Conference USA
88Vanderbilt106.2Southeastern
89Butler106.0Big East
90Santa Clara106.0West Coast
91Georgia105.8Southeastern
92Utah Valley105.5Western Athletic
93Stanford105.4Pac-12
94Nebraska105.4Big Ten
95Drake105.3Missouri Valley
96Washington105.0Pac-12
97Loyola Marymount105.0West Coast
98Yale104.9Ivy League
99Toledo104.9Mid-American
100UC Irvine104.8Big West
101LSU104.7Southeastern
102Grand Canyon104.7Western Athletic
103Furman104.5Southern
104Princeton104.4Ivy League
105Richmond104.2Atlantic 10
106Southern Utah104.2Western Athletic
107San Francisco104.1West Coast
108UC Santa Barbara104.1Big West
109Cornell104.0Ivy League
110Colorado St.104.0Mountain West
111Akron103.7Mid-American
112Charlotte103.7Conference USA
113Youngstown St.103.4Horizon
114Hofstra103.4Colonial Athletic
115Southern Illinois103.3Missouri Valley
116Colgate103.3Patriot League
117Duquesne103.2Atlantic 10
118Indiana St.103.2Missouri Valley
119George Mason103.2Atlantic 10
120Seattle103.0Western Athletic
121Wichita St.103.0American Athletic
122Temple103.0American Athletic
123Southern Miss102.9Sun Belt
124Louisiana102.9Sun Belt
125UNC Greensboro102.9Southern
126DePaul102.9Big East
127Belmont102.9Missouri Valley
128Montana St.102.6Big Sky
129Louisiana Tech102.5Conference USA
130Missouri St.102.4Missouri Valley
131Chattanooga102.4Southern
132Georgia Tech102.3Atlantic Coast
133Middle Tennessee102.3Conference USA
134Towson102.2Colonial Athletic
135Notre Dame102.2Atlantic Coast
136Hawaii102.1Big West
137Stephen F. Austin102.0Western Athletic
138Troy102.0Sun Belt
139Quinnipiac101.9Metro Atlantic
140Florida St.101.9Atlantic Coast
141Davidson101.9Atlantic 10
142Samford101.7Southern
143Longwood101.7Big South
144Ball St.101.2Mid-American
145Wyoming101.1Mountain West
146St. Bonaventure101.1Atlantic 10
147South Florida101.0American Athletic
148UNC Wilmington100.9Colonial Athletic
149Air Force100.9Mountain West
150Eastern Washington100.9Big Sky
151UC Riverside100.8Big West
152Western Kentucky100.8Conference USA
153Ohio100.7Mid-American
154UMass Lowell100.6America East
155Vermont100.5America East
156Massachusetts100.5Atlantic 10
157San Jose St.100.5Mountain West
158Cal Baptist100.5Western Athletic
159Rice100.5Conference USA
160Florida Gulf Coast100.4Atlantic Sun
161Purdue Fort Wayne100.2Horizon
162Radford100.1Big South
163Penn100.1Ivy League
164Northern Iowa100.1Missouri Valley
165SMU100.1American Athletic
166Old Dominion100.1Sun Belt
167Fresno St.100.1Mountain West
168Drexel100.0Colonial Athletic
169Portland99.9West Coast
170Siena99.9Metro Atlantic
171Kennesaw St.99.8Atlantic Sun
172UC Davis99.7Big West
173South Dakota St.99.7Summit
174Cal St. Fullerton99.7Big West
175Bryant99.7America East
176UTEP99.6Conference USA
177Murray St.99.5Missouri Valley
178Montana99.5Big Sky
179Harvard99.5Ivy League
180Tarleton St.99.5Western Athletic
181Pepperdine99.4West Coast
182UNC Asheville99.4Big South
183South Alabama99.4Sun Belt
184Long Beach St.99.4Big West
185Minnesota99.3Big Ten
186Gardner Webb99.3Big South
187New Mexico St.99.3Western Athletic
188Boston College99.3Atlantic Coast
189Lipscomb99.2Atlantic Sun
190Stetson99.2Atlantic Sun
191Jacksonville99.1Atlantic Sun
192Cleveland St.99.1Horizon
193George Washington98.9Atlantic 10
194Appalachian St.98.8Sun Belt
195Fordham98.8Atlantic 10
196Buffalo98.8Mid-American
197Wofford98.7Southern
198SIU Edwardsville98.5Ohio Valley
199Saint Joseph’s98.4Atlantic 10
200Eastern Kentucky98.4Atlantic Sun
201Delaware98.4Colonial Athletic
202San Diego98.3West Coast
203Rider98.2Metro Atlantic
204Brown98.1Ivy League
205Rhode Island98.1Atlantic 10
206Texas St.98.1Sun Belt
207Queens98.0Atlantic Sun
208Wright St.97.9Horizon
209Norfolk St.97.9Mideastern Athletic
210California97.8Pac-12
211North Carolina Central97.8Mideastern Athletic
212UMBC97.8America East
213Georgetown97.7Big East
214East Carolina97.7American Athletic
215Northern Kentucky97.5Horizon
216Detroit Mercy97.5Horizon
217St. Thomas97.4Summit
218Texas A&M CC97.3Southland
219Milwaukee97.3Horizon
220Weber St.97.3Big Sky
221Utah Tech97.2Western Athletic
222Oregon St.97.2Pac-12
223Sacramento St.97.2Big Sky
224Southern97.2Southwestern Athletic
225Abilene Christian97.1Western Athletic
226Georgia St.97.0Sun Belt
227Navy96.9Patriot League
228Mercer96.9Southern
229Grambling96.8Southwestern Athletic
230Georgia Southern96.7Sun Belt
231Army96.7Patriot League
232American96.5Patriot League
233Bellarmine96.5Atlantic Sun
234Illinois St.96.4Missouri Valley
235Portland St.96.3Big Sky
236Northwestern St.96.3Southland
237Loyola (Chi.)96.3Atlantic 10
238Pacific96.3West Coast
239South Carolina96.2Southeastern
240Nicholls St.96.1Southland
241Western Carolina96.1Southern
242Coastal Carolina96.0Sun Belt
243North Dakota St.95.8Summit
244Morgan St.95.7Mideastern Athletic
245La Salle95.6Atlantic 10
246Lafayette95.6Patriot League
247Niagara95.5Metro Atlantic
248Fairfield95.5Metro Atlantic
249Tulsa95.4American Athletic
250Northeastern95.3Colonial Athletic
251Southern Indiana95.3Ohio Valley
252UMKC95.1Summit
253Boston University95.1Patriot League
254Campbell95.1Big South
255UT-Martin94.9Ohio Valley
256East Tennessee St.94.9Southern
257Alcorn St.94.9Southwestern Athletic
258Southeast Missouri St.94.7Ohio Valley
259UT Arlington94.7Western Athletic
260Florida Int’l94.6Conference USA
261Winthrop94.6Big South
262Northern Colorado94.5Big Sky
263North Florida94.5Atlantic Sun
264Robert Morris94.4Horizon
265Western Illinois94.3Summit
266Idaho St.94.2Big Sky
267Mount St. Mary’s94.2Metro Atlantic
268Bucknell94.2Patriot League
269Oakland94.2Horizon
270Louisiana Monroe94.2Sun Belt
271Bowling Green94.1Mid-American
272North Carolina A&T94.1Colonial Athletic
273Canisius94.1Metro Atlantic
274Louisville94.0Atlantic Coast
275Dartmouth93.9Ivy League
276Lehigh93.8Patriot League
277Austin Peay93.8Atlantic Sun
278Charleston Southern93.8Big South
279Western Michigan93.7Mid-American
280New Hampshire93.7America East
281Southeastern Louisiana93.5Southland
282High Point93.5Big South
283Morehead St.93.5Ohio Valley
284Jacksonville St.93.4Atlantic Sun
285Prairie View A&M93.3Southwestern Athletic
286Northern Arizona93.2Big Sky
287USC Upstate93.2Big South
288Howard93.2Mideastern Athletic
289Wagner93.1Northeast
290Cal Poly93.1Big West
291UC San Diego93.0Big West
292Saint Peter’s93.0Metro Atlantic
293Valparaiso93.0Missouri Valley
294Denver92.9Summit
295Maryland Eastern Shore92.9Mideastern Athletic
296Illinois Chicago92.8Missouri Valley
297William & Mary92.8Colonial Athletic
298Central Michigan92.8Mid-American
299Tennessee Tech92.7Ohio Valley
300Miami (O)92.7Mid-American
301Marist92.6Metro Atlantic
302Texas Southern92.6Southwestern Athletic
303Idaho92.6Big Sky
304UT Rio Grande Valley92.6Western Athletic
305Texas A&M Commerce92.5Southland
306Fairleigh Dickinson92.4Northeast
307Northern Illinois92.2Mid-American
308Cal St. Bakersfield92.2Big West
309South Dakota92.1Summit
310Chicago St.92.0Independents
311Binghamton92.0America East
312Tennessee St.92.0Ohio Valley
313The Citadel91.8Southern
314Maine91.8America East
315North Alabama91.8Atlantic Sun
316Jackson St.91.8Southwestern Athletic
317Stony Brook91.7Colonial Athletic
318Arkansas St.91.6Sun Belt
319North Dakota91.5Summit
320Omaha91.4Summit
321Manhattan91.1Metro Atlantic
322NJIT91.0America East
323Coppin St.91.0Mideastern Athletic
324Cal St. Northridge91.0Big West
325Sacred Heart90.9Northeast
326UTSA90.7Conference USA
327Presbyterian90.6Big South
328St. Francis PA90.6Northeast
329Central Connecticut90.4Northeast
330Loyola (MD)90.2Patriot League
331VMI90.0Southern
332Eastern Michigan89.9Mid-American
333Stonehill89.9Northeast
334McNeese St.89.8Southland
335Albany89.7America East
336Merrimack89.6Northeast
337Arkansas Pine Bluff89.2Southwestern Athletic
338Alabama St.89.1Southwestern Athletic
339Alabama A&M89.0Southwestern Athletic
340Evansville89.0Missouri Valley
341Central Arkansas88.9Atlantic Sun
342Elon88.8Colonial Athletic
343Holy Cross88.8Patriot League
344Little Rock88.7Ohio Valley
345Lindenwood88.6Ohio Valley
346New Orleans88.4Southland
347Eastern Illinois88.1Ohio Valley
348South Carolina St.88.0Mideastern Athletic
349Columbia87.7Ivy League
350St. Francis NY87.6Northeast
351Hampton87.0Colonial Athletic
352Incarnate Word87.0Southland
353Bethune Cookman86.7Southwestern Athletic
354Houston Christian85.6Southland
355Monmouth85.2Colonial Athletic
356Lamar84.3Southland
357Mississippi Valley St.84.1Southwestern Athletic
358Delaware St.84.1Mideastern Athletic
359Florida A&M84.1Southwestern Athletic
360Green Bay83.6Horizon
361Hartford82.8Independents
362IUPUI81.6Horizon
363Long Island81.1Northeast

Alphabetical

#TeamPiRateConference
225Abilene Christian97.1Western Athletic
149Air Force100.9Mountain West
111Akron103.7Mid-American
3Alabama120.1Southeastern
339Alabama A&M89.0Southwestern Athletic
338Alabama St.89.1Southwestern Athletic
335Albany89.7America East
257Alcorn St.94.9Southwestern Athletic
232American96.5Patriot League
194Appalachian St.98.8Sun Belt
11Arizona115.0Pac-12
49Arizona St.110.0Pac-12
21Arkansas113.5Southeastern
337Arkansas Pine Bluff89.2Southwestern Athletic
318Arkansas St.91.6Sun Belt
231Army96.7Patriot League
17Auburn114.1Southeastern
277Austin Peay93.8Atlantic Sun
144Ball St.101.2Mid-American
12Baylor114.7Big 12
233Bellarmine96.5Atlantic Sun
127Belmont102.9Missouri Valley
353Bethune Cookman86.7Southwestern Athletic
311Binghamton92.0America East
32Boise St.111.9Mountain West
188Boston College99.3Atlantic Coast
253Boston University95.1Patriot League
271Bowling Green94.1Mid-American
80Bradley106.7Missouri Valley
204Brown98.1Ivy League
175Bryant99.7America East
268Bucknell94.2Patriot League
196Buffalo98.8Mid-American
89Butler106.0Big East
77BYU107.0West Coast
158Cal Baptist100.5Western Athletic
290Cal Poly93.1Big West
308Cal St. Bakersfield92.2Big West
174Cal St. Fullerton99.7Big West
324Cal St. Northridge91.0Big West
210California97.8Pac-12
254Campbell95.1Big South
273Canisius94.1Metro Atlantic
341Central Arkansas88.9Atlantic Sun
329Central Connecticut90.4Northeast
58Central Florida109.5American Athletic
298Central Michigan92.8Mid-American
83Charleston106.6Colonial Athletic
278Charleston Southern93.8Big South
112Charlotte103.7Conference USA
131Chattanooga102.4Southern
310Chicago St.92.0Independents
63Cincinnati109.0American Athletic
61Clemson109.2Atlantic Coast
192Cleveland St.99.1Horizon
242Coastal Carolina96.0Sun Belt
116Colgate103.3Patriot League
54Colorado109.7Pac-12
110Colorado St.104.0Mountain West
349Columbia87.7Ivy League
5Connecticut117.4Big East
323Coppin St.91.0Mideastern Athletic
109Cornell104.0Ivy League
14Creighton114.5Big East
275Dartmouth93.9Ivy League
141Davidson101.9Atlantic 10
57Dayton109.6Atlantic 10
201Delaware98.4Colonial Athletic
358Delaware St.84.1Mideastern Athletic
294Denver92.9Summit
126DePaul102.9Big East
216Detroit Mercy97.5Horizon
95Drake105.3Missouri Valley
168Drexel100.0Colonial Athletic
28Duke112.4Atlantic Coast
117Duquesne103.2Atlantic 10
214East Carolina97.7American Athletic
256East Tennessee St.94.9Southern
347Eastern Illinois88.1Ohio Valley
200Eastern Kentucky98.4Atlantic Sun
332Eastern Michigan89.9Mid-American
150Eastern Washington100.9Big Sky
342Elon88.8Colonial Athletic
340Evansville89.0Missouri Valley
248Fairfield95.5Metro Atlantic
306Fairleigh Dickinson92.4Northeast
37Florida111.3Southeastern
359Florida A&M84.1Southwestern Athletic
47Florida Atlantic110.0Conference USA
160Florida Gulf Coast100.4Atlantic Sun
260Florida Int’l94.6Conference USA
140Florida St.101.9Atlantic Coast
195Fordham98.8Atlantic 10
167Fresno St.100.1Mountain West
103Furman104.5Southern
186Gardner Webb99.3Big South
119George Mason103.2Atlantic 10
193George Washington98.9Atlantic 10
213Georgetown97.7Big East
91Georgia105.8Southeastern
230Georgia Southern96.7Sun Belt
226Georgia St.97.0Sun Belt
132Georgia Tech102.3Atlantic Coast
8Gonzaga115.9West Coast
229Grambling96.8Southwestern Athletic
102Grand Canyon104.7Western Athletic
360Green Bay83.6Horizon
351Hampton87.0Colonial Athletic
361Hartford82.8Independents
179Harvard99.5Ivy League
136Hawaii102.1Big West
282High Point93.5Big South
114Hofstra103.4Colonial Athletic
343Holy Cross88.8Patriot League
1Houston121.3American Athletic
354Houston Christian85.6Southland
288Howard93.2Mideastern Athletic
303Idaho92.6Big Sky
266Idaho St.94.2Big Sky
26Illinois112.8Big Ten
296Illinois Chicago92.8Missouri Valley
234Illinois St.96.4Missouri Valley
352Incarnate Word87.0Southland
18Indiana113.9Big Ten
118Indiana St.103.2Missouri Valley
76Iona107.1Metro Atlantic
24Iowa113.0Big Ten
13Iowa St.114.6Big 12
362IUPUI81.6Horizon
316Jackson St.91.8Southwestern Athletic
191Jacksonville99.1Atlantic Sun
284Jacksonville St.93.4Atlantic Sun
79James Madison106.7Sun Belt
6Kansas117.2Big 12
29Kansas St.112.2Big 12
171Kennesaw St.99.8Atlantic Sun
68Kent St.108.1Mid-American
30Kentucky112.1Southeastern
245La Salle95.6Atlantic 10
246Lafayette95.6Patriot League
356Lamar84.3Southland
276Lehigh93.8Patriot League
72Liberty107.4Atlantic Sun
345Lindenwood88.6Ohio Valley
189Lipscomb99.2Atlantic Sun
344Little Rock88.7Ohio Valley
184Long Beach St.99.4Big West
363Long Island81.1Northeast
143Longwood101.7Big South
124Louisiana102.9Sun Belt
270Louisiana Monroe94.2Sun Belt
129Louisiana Tech102.5Conference USA
274Louisville94.0Atlantic Coast
237Loyola (Chi.)96.3Atlantic 10
330Loyola (MD)90.2Patriot League
97Loyola Marymount105.0West Coast
101LSU104.7Southeastern
314Maine91.8America East
321Manhattan91.1Metro Atlantic
301Marist92.6Metro Atlantic
15Marquette114.3Big East
73Marshall107.4Sun Belt
39Maryland110.9Big Ten
295Maryland Eastern Shore92.9Mideastern Athletic
156Massachusetts100.5Atlantic 10
334McNeese St.89.8Southland
34Memphis111.4American Athletic
228Mercer96.9Southern
336Merrimack89.6Northeast
40Miami (Fla)110.7Atlantic Coast
300Miami (O)92.7Mid-American
56Michigan109.7Big Ten
35Michigan St.111.4Big Ten
133Middle Tennessee102.3Conference USA
219Milwaukee97.3Horizon
185Minnesota99.3Big Ten
82Mississippi106.6Southeastern
62Mississippi St.109.1Southeastern
357Mississippi Valley St.84.1Southwestern Athletic
52Missouri109.8Southeastern
130Missouri St.102.4Missouri Valley
355Monmouth85.2Colonial Athletic
178Montana99.5Big Sky
128Montana St.102.6Big Sky
283Morehead St.93.5Ohio Valley
244Morgan St.95.7Mideastern Athletic
267Mount St. Mary’s94.2Metro Atlantic
177Murray St.99.5Missouri Valley
227Navy96.9Patriot League
94Nebraska105.4Big Ten
66Nevada108.7Mountain West
280New Hampshire93.7America East
50New Mexico109.9Mountain West
187New Mexico St.99.3Western Athletic
346New Orleans88.4Southland
247Niagara95.5Metro Atlantic
240Nicholls St.96.1Southland
322NJIT91.0America East
209Norfolk St.97.9Mideastern Athletic
315North Alabama91.8Atlantic Sun
22North Carolina113.1Atlantic Coast
272North Carolina A&T94.1Colonial Athletic
211North Carolina Central97.8Mideastern Athletic
36North Carolina St.111.4Atlantic Coast
319North Dakota91.5Summit
243North Dakota St.95.8Summit
263North Florida94.5Atlantic Sun
87North Texas106.2Conference USA
250Northeastern95.3Colonial Athletic
286Northern Arizona93.2Big Sky
262Northern Colorado94.5Big Sky
307Northern Illinois92.2Mid-American
164Northern Iowa100.1Missouri Valley
215Northern Kentucky97.5Horizon
53Northwestern109.7Big Ten
236Northwestern St.96.3Southland
135Notre Dame102.2Atlantic Coast
269Oakland94.2Horizon
153Ohio100.7Mid-American
23Ohio St.113.0Big Ten
42Oklahoma110.5Big 12
33Oklahoma St.111.5Big 12
166Old Dominion100.1Sun Belt
320Omaha91.4Summit
75Oral Roberts107.2Summit
46Oregon110.1Pac-12
222Oregon St.97.2Pac-12
238Pacific96.3West Coast
163Penn100.1Ivy League
44Penn St.110.4Big Ten
181Pepperdine99.4West Coast
65Pittsburgh108.7Atlantic Coast
169Portland99.9West Coast
235Portland St.96.3Big Sky
285Prairie View A&M93.3Southwestern Athletic
327Presbyterian90.6Big South
104Princeton104.4Ivy League
38Providence111.3Big East
7Purdue117.0Big Ten
161Purdue Fort Wayne100.2Horizon
207Queens98.0Atlantic Sun
139Quinnipiac101.9Metro Atlantic
162Radford100.1Big South
205Rhode Island98.1Atlantic 10
159Rice100.5Conference USA
105Richmond104.2Atlantic 10
203Rider98.2Metro Atlantic
264Robert Morris94.4Horizon
20Rutgers113.6Big Ten
223Sacramento St.97.2Big Sky
325Sacred Heart90.9Northeast
199Saint Joseph’s98.4Atlantic 10
78Saint Louis106.9Atlantic 10
10Saint Mary’s115.1West Coast
292Saint Peter’s93.0Metro Atlantic
74Sam Houston St.107.3Western Athletic
142Samford101.7Southern
202San Diego98.3West Coast
31San Diego St.111.9Mountain West
107San Francisco104.1West Coast
157San Jose St.100.5Mountain West
90Santa Clara106.0West Coast
120Seattle103.0Western Athletic
48Seton Hall110.0Big East
170Siena99.9Metro Atlantic
198SIU Edwardsville98.5Ohio Valley
165SMU100.1American Athletic
183South Alabama99.4Sun Belt
239South Carolina96.2Southeastern
348South Carolina St.88.0Mideastern Athletic
309South Dakota92.1Summit
173South Dakota St.99.7Summit
147South Florida101.0American Athletic
258Southeast Missouri St.94.7Ohio Valley
281Southeastern Louisiana93.5Southland
224Southern97.2Southwestern Athletic
115Southern Illinois103.3Missouri Valley
251Southern Indiana95.3Ohio Valley
123Southern Miss102.9Sun Belt
106Southern Utah104.2Western Athletic
146St. Bonaventure101.1Atlantic 10
350St. Francis NY87.6Northeast
328St. Francis PA90.6Northeast
55St. John’s109.7Big East
217St. Thomas97.4Summit
93Stanford105.4Pac-12
137Stephen F. Austin102.0Western Athletic
190Stetson99.2Atlantic Sun
333Stonehill89.9Northeast
317Stony Brook91.7Colonial Athletic
86Syracuse106.3Atlantic Coast
180Tarleton St.99.5Western Athletic
25TCU112.9Big 12
122Temple103.0American Athletic
2Tennessee120.5Southeastern
312Tennessee St.92.0Ohio Valley
299Tennessee Tech92.7Ohio Valley
9Texas115.4Big 12
45Texas A&M110.2Southeastern
218Texas A&M CC97.3Southland
305Texas A&M Commerce92.5Southland
302Texas Southern92.6Southwestern Athletic
206Texas St.98.1Sun Belt
43Texas Tech110.4Big 12
313The Citadel91.8Southern
99Toledo104.9Mid-American
134Towson102.2Colonial Athletic
138Troy102.0Sun Belt
84Tulane106.5American Athletic
249Tulsa95.4American Athletic
64UAB108.8Conference USA
172UC Davis99.7Big West
100UC Irvine104.8Big West
151UC Riverside100.8Big West
291UC San Diego93.0Big West
108UC Santa Barbara104.1Big West
4UCLA119.2Pac-12
154UMass Lowell100.6America East
212UMBC97.8America East
252UMKC95.1Summit
182UNC Asheville99.4Big South
125UNC Greensboro102.9Southern
148UNC Wilmington100.9Colonial Athletic
81UNLV106.6Mountain West
60USC109.3Pac-12
287USC Upstate93.2Big South
259UT Arlington94.7Western Athletic
304UT Rio Grande Valley92.6Western Athletic
255UT-Martin94.9Ohio Valley
59Utah109.4Pac-12
41Utah St.110.7Mountain West
221Utah Tech97.2Western Athletic
92Utah Valley105.5Western Athletic
176UTEP99.6Conference USA
326UTSA90.7Conference USA
293Valparaiso93.0Missouri Valley
88Vanderbilt106.2Southeastern
85VCU106.3Atlantic 10
155Vermont100.5America East
71Villanova107.7Big East
19Virginia113.7Atlantic Coast
51Virginia Tech109.9Atlantic Coast
331VMI90.0Southern
289Wagner93.1Northeast
70Wake Forest107.8Atlantic Coast
96Washington105.0Pac-12
69Washington St.108.1Pac-12
220Weber St.97.3Big Sky
27West Virginia112.5Big 12
241Western Carolina96.1Southern
265Western Illinois94.3Summit
152Western Kentucky100.8Conference USA
279Western Michigan93.7Mid-American
121Wichita St.103.0American Athletic
297William & Mary92.8Colonial Athletic
261Winthrop94.6Big South
67Wisconsin108.7Big Ten
197Wofford98.7Southern
208Wright St.97.9Horizon
145Wyoming101.1Mountain West
16Xavier114.2Big East
98Yale104.9Ivy League
113Youngstown St.103.4Horizon

PiRate Ratings By Conference

America East
TeamRating
UMass Lowell100.6
Vermont100.5
Bryant99.7
UMBC97.8
New Hampshire93.7
Binghamton92.0
Maine91.8
NJIT91.0
Albany89.7
American Athletic
TeamRating
Houston121.3
Memphis111.4
Central Florida109.5
Cincinnati109.0
Tulane106.5
Wichita St.103.0
Temple103.0
South Florida101.0
SMU100.1
East Carolina97.7
Tulsa95.4
Atlantic 10
TeamRating
Dayton109.6
Saint Louis106.9
VCU106.3
Richmond104.2
Duquesne103.2
George Mason103.2
Davidson101.9
St. Bonaventure101.1
Massachusetts100.5
George Washington98.9
Fordham98.8
Saint Joseph’s98.4
Rhode Island98.1
Loyola (Chi.)96.3
La Salle95.6
Atlantic Coast
TeamRating
Virginia113.7
North Carolina113.1
Duke112.4
North Carolina St.111.4
Miami (Fla)110.7
Virginia Tech109.9
Clemson109.2
Pittsburgh108.7
Wake Forest107.8
Syracuse106.3
Georgia Tech102.3
Notre Dame102.2
Florida St.101.9
Boston College99.3
Louisville94.0
Atlantic Sun
TeamRating
Liberty107.4
Florida Gulf Coast100.4
Kennesaw St.99.8
Lipscomb99.2
Stetson99.2
Jacksonville99.1
Eastern Kentucky98.4
Queens98.0
Bellarmine96.5
North Florida94.5
Austin Peay93.8
Jacksonville St.93.4
North Alabama91.8
Central Arkansas88.9
Big 12
TeamRating
Kansas117.2
Texas115.4
Baylor114.7
Iowa St.114.6
TCU112.9
West Virginia112.5
Kansas St.112.2
Oklahoma St.111.5
Oklahoma110.5
Texas Tech110.4
Big East
TeamRating
Connecticut117.4
Creighton114.5
Marquette114.3
Xavier114.2
Providence111.3
Seton Hall110.0
St. John’s109.7
Villanova107.7
Butler106.0
DePaul102.9
Georgetown97.7
Big Sky
TeamRating
Montana St.102.6
Eastern Washington100.9
Montana99.5
Weber St.97.3
Sacramento St.97.2
Portland St.96.3
Northern Colorado94.5
Idaho St.94.2
Northern Arizona93.2
Idaho92.6
Big South
TeamRating
Longwood101.7
Radford100.1
UNC Asheville99.4
Gardner Webb99.3
Campbell95.1
Winthrop94.6
Charleston Southern93.8
High Point93.5
USC Upstate93.2
Presbyterian90.6
Big Ten
TeamRating
Purdue117.0
Indiana113.9
Rutgers113.6
Ohio St.113.0
Iowa113.0
Illinois112.8
Michigan St.111.4
Maryland110.9
Penn St.110.4
Northwestern109.7
Michigan109.7
Wisconsin108.7
Nebraska105.4
Minnesota99.3
Big West
TeamRating
UC Irvine104.8
UC Santa Barbara104.1
Hawaii102.1
UC Riverside100.8
UC Davis99.7
Cal St. Fullerton99.7
Long Beach St.99.4
Cal Poly93.1
UC San Diego93.0
Cal St. Bakersfield92.2
Cal St. Northridge91.0
Colonial Athletic
TeamRating
Charleston106.6
Hofstra103.4
Towson102.2
UNC Wilmington100.9
Drexel100.0
Delaware98.4
Northeastern95.3
North Carolina A&T94.1
William & Mary92.8
Stony Brook91.7
Elon88.8
Hampton87.0
Monmouth85.2
Conference USA
TeamRating
Florida Atlantic110.0
UAB108.8
North Texas106.2
Charlotte103.7
Louisiana Tech102.5
Middle Tennessee102.3
Western Kentucky100.8
Rice100.5
UTEP99.6
Florida Int’l94.6
UTSA90.7
Horizon
TeamRating
Youngstown St.103.4
Purdue Fort Wayne100.2
Cleveland St.99.1
Wright St.97.9
Northern Kentucky97.5
Detroit Mercy97.5
Milwaukee97.3
Robert Morris94.4
Oakland94.2
Green Bay83.6
IUPUI81.6
Independents
TeamRating
Chicago St.92.0
Hartford82.8
Ivy League
TeamRating
Yale104.9
Princeton104.4
Cornell104.0
Penn100.1
Harvard99.5
Brown98.1
Dartmouth93.9
Columbia87.7
Metro Atlantic
TeamRating
Iona107.1
Quinnipiac101.9
Siena99.9
Rider98.2
Niagara95.5
Fairfield95.5
Mount St. Mary’s94.2
Canisius94.1
Saint Peter’s93.0
Marist92.6
Manhattan91.1
Mid-American
TeamRating
Kent St.108.1
Toledo104.9
Akron103.7
Ball St.101.2
Ohio100.7
Buffalo98.8
Bowling Green94.1
Western Michigan93.7
Central Michigan92.8
Miami (O)92.7
Northern Illinois92.2
Eastern Michigan89.9
Mideastern Athletic
TeamRating
Norfolk St.97.9
North Carolina Central97.8
Morgan St.95.7
Howard93.2
Maryland Eastern Shore92.9
Coppin St.91.0
South Carolina St.88.0
Delaware St.84.1
Missouri Valley
TeamRating
Bradley106.7
Drake105.3
Southern Illinois103.3
Indiana St.103.2
Belmont102.9
Missouri St.102.4
Northern Iowa100.1
Murray St.99.5
Illinois St.96.4
Valparaiso93.0
Illinois Chicago92.8
Evansville89.0
Mountain West
TeamRating
San Diego St.111.9
Boise St.111.9
Utah St.110.7
New Mexico109.9
Nevada108.7
UNLV106.6
Colorado St.104.0
Wyoming101.1
Air Force100.9
San Jose St.100.5
Fresno St.100.1
Northeast
TeamRating
Wagner93.1
Fairleigh Dickinson92.4
Sacred Heart90.9
St. Francis PA90.6
Central Connecticut90.4
Stonehill89.9
Merrimack89.6
St. Francis NY87.6
Long Island81.1
Ohio Valley
TeamRating
SIU Edwardsville98.5
Southern Indiana95.3
UT-Martin94.9
Southeast Missouri St.94.7
Morehead St.93.5
Tennessee Tech92.7
Tennessee St.92.0
Little Rock88.7
Lindenwood88.6
Eastern Illinois88.1
Pac-12
TeamRating
UCLA119.2
Arizona115.0
Oregon110.1
Arizona St.110.0
Colorado109.7
Utah109.4
USC109.3
Washington St.108.1
Stanford105.4
Washington105.0
California97.8
Oregon St.97.2
Patriot League
TeamRating
Colgate103.3
Navy96.9
Army96.7
American96.5
Lafayette95.6
Boston University95.1
Bucknell94.2
Lehigh93.8
Loyola (MD)90.2
Holy Cross88.8
Southeastern
TeamRating
Tennessee120.5
Alabama120.1
Auburn114.1
Arkansas113.5
Kentucky112.1
Florida111.3
Texas A&M110.2
Missouri109.8
Mississippi St.109.1
Mississippi106.6
Vanderbilt106.2
Georgia105.8
LSU104.7
South Carolina96.2
Southern
TeamRating
Furman104.5
UNC Greensboro102.9
Chattanooga102.4
Samford101.7
Wofford98.7
Mercer96.9
Western Carolina96.1
East Tennessee St.94.9
The Citadel91.8
VMI90.0
Southland
TeamRating
Texas A&M CC97.3
Northwestern St.96.3
Nicholls St.96.1
Southeastern Louisiana93.5
Texas A&M Commerce92.5
McNeese St.89.8
New Orleans88.4
Incarnate Word87.0
Houston Christian85.6
Lamar84.3
Southwestern Athletic
TeamRating
Southern97.2
Grambling96.8
Alcorn St.94.9
Prairie View A&M93.3
Texas Southern92.6
Jackson St.91.8
Arkansas Pine Bluff89.2
Alabama St.89.1
Alabama A&M89.0
Bethune Cookman86.7
Mississippi Valley St.84.1
Florida A&M84.1
Summit
TeamRating
Oral Roberts107.2
South Dakota St.99.7
St. Thomas97.4
North Dakota St.95.8
UMKC95.1
Western Illinois94.3
Denver92.9
South Dakota92.1
North Dakota91.5
Omaha91.4
Sun Belt
TeamRating
Marshall107.4
James Madison106.7
Southern Miss102.9
Louisiana102.9
Troy102.0
Old Dominion100.1
South Alabama99.4
Appalachian St.98.8
Texas St.98.1
Georgia St.97.0
Georgia Southern96.7
Coastal Carolina96.0
Louisiana Monroe94.2
Arkansas St.91.6
West Coast
TeamRating
Gonzaga115.9
Saint Mary’s115.1
BYU107.0
Santa Clara106.0
Loyola Marymount105.0
San Francisco104.1
Portland99.9
Pepperdine99.4
San Diego98.3
Pacific96.3
Western Athletic
TeamRating
Sam Houston St.107.3
Utah Valley105.5
Grand Canyon104.7
Southern Utah104.2
Seattle103.0
Stephen F. Austin102.0
Cal Baptist100.5
Tarleton St.99.5
New Mexico St.99.3
Utah Tech97.2
Abilene Christian97.1
UT Arlington94.7
UT Rio Grande Valley92.6

Coming later today: Updated Bracketology

April 1, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Final Four

Saturday, April 2, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
DukeNorth Carolina3.8
KansasVillanova2.0

Bracketnomics

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateOld R+T
Duke14558.937.031.646.628.63.612.3
North Carolina183959.336.131.047.530.110.116.7
Kansas71861.835.533.147.032.96.213.8
Villanova91761.435.731.148.030.14.110.9

Duke vs. North Carolina

For so many years, there was a chance that the two two rivals in college basketball would meet in the Final Four.

Personally, in 1982, I held 4 tickets to the Mideast Regional at Vanderbilt University when the NCAA Selection Committee had placed Kentucky and Louisville on a collision course in the second round after Kentucky dismissed Middle Tennessee State in the first round. The two Bluegrass rivals had not met for 25 years, and here they were just two days away from the most colossal game in the tournament since Houston and UCLA played in 1968. Alas, tiny MTSU upset Kentucky, and the value of those four tickets went from new car purchase to nice dinner purchase.

What does that have to do with this game in New Orleans? Absolutely nothing, but it allows me to stall a bit. This game is not easy to figure. Duke has the overall most efficient offense in college basketball, while Carolina is in the top 20 in offensive efficiency but since February, the Tar Heels are in the top five. Carolina’s defense is marginally better than Duke’s, but it isn’t all that much. Carolina has a little better offense at forcing fouls on the defense and a little better R+T Rating, but how much extra do you give Duke for trying to send Coach K out a winner?

In 1975, Kentucky clearly had better overall talent and should have beaten UCLA, but the Bruins played close to their top potential for the retiring Coach Wooden. The last time these two teams played, Carolina spoiled Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Additionally, the Tar Heels did not win the regular season or conference tournament in the ACC, while Duke won the regular season title. PiRate Bracketnomics values a conference champion over a non-champion in tossup games, so the edge goes to Duke to make it to the Championship Game on Monday night.

Kansas vs. Villanova

The PiRate Bracketnomics System correctly picked Kansas and Villanova to make the Final Four before the tournament began. We also picked Kansas to cut down the nets in New Orleans, so you know who we are selecting in this game.

Now, let’s look at why. First, Villanova is missing a key player in Justin Moore from an already small playing rotation. Now for the numbers. Kansas has a very slim advantage in offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding rate, defensive 2-point field goal percentage, and R+T Ratings. Strength of schedule is basically dead even, so with the injury to Moore, KU becomes a 4 or 5 point favorite.

March 26, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 26, 2022

Saturday, March 26, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
VillanovaHouston-2.1
DukeArkansas3.7
Southern UtahPortland3.7

Elite 8 Bracketnomics Analysis

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateOld R+T
Villanova83060.80.36031.248.60.306.511.6
Houston101056.50.34537.744.00.2914.122.0
Duke44358.20.37031.946.40.293.912.3
Arkansas541458.20.30429.946.50.386.912.7
North Carolina204259.00.36430.748.00.309.616.0
Saint Peter’s2252849.50.35532.143.50.384.68.9
Kansas62661.80.36033.547.10.326.213.3
Miami (Fla.)1812157.90.34422.753.20.29-5.4-3.0

Villanova vs. Houston: Houston has a more perfect Final Four Bracketnomics resume, but there is a caveat. The Cougars accumulated some of this resume with two former starters that were both lost for the season due to injuries.

Villanova has a better schedule strength and a better three-point shooting percentage, while Houston holds the R+T edge. It is so close to call, but the general rule of thumb is to go with the better R+T rating in tossup games. By a thin hair, the pick is Houston to repeat as a Final Four team.

Duke vs. Arkansas: It appears as if the Atlantic Coast Conference was quite underrated this year. Three of the Elite 8 are ACC teams. Duke showed a lot of toughness beating the number one defensive team in the nation Thursday night. Of course, Arkansas beat the number one team overall, and it did not look like a fluke.

Duke is close to having an ideal Final Four resume. The key here is that the Blue Devils have a considerably better Final Four resume than Arkansas, and they add two intangibles. First, they are playing for Coach K to go out a champion like John Wooden. Second, the ACC may need a few extra points in schedule strength. Duke is the choice.

North Carolina vs. Saint Peter’s: What we have here is a total monkey wrench in the Bracketnomics system. Saint Peter’s is not supposed to be here. I am not saying that no mid-major team should ever be in the Elite 8. It’s just that the Peacocks, with this resume, do not fit like past mid-major teams like George Mason, Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler. If Saint Peter’s makes the Final Four, the Bracketnomics System will be a total failure, because there isn’t any justification that says the Peacocks should make the Final Four.

How did this tiny commuter school located on both sides of what was once the Lincoln Highway in Jersey City get to the Elite 8? Beating Kentucky was “The Mouse That Roared.” This was not one of those all freshmen teams with no tournament experience. Beating Murray State wasn’t as surprising as we thought the Racers had failed to beat a really quality team. Beating Purdue was almost as shocking as beating Kentucky, but we have noted that Gene Keady and his disciples have never had great success in the NCAA Tournamnent, as Steve Lavin and Kevin Stallings also had issues with teams trying to win half-court possessions at the expense of forcing the issue and accumulating great R+T rating scores.

Now comes a North Carolina team that at one point this year lost to Kentucky by more than 30 points and looked like an NIT team but all of a sudden caught fire and slaughtered Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Coach K’s final home game. North Carolina looked like a national championship team in the Sweet 16, and Hubert Davis must be given all kinds of credit for guiding the Tar Heels from probable NIT to probable Final Four. I am going with the Tar Heels to set up the incredible top rivalry game in the Final Four. Saint Peter’s has a slightly better defensive efficiency, and their guards are incredibly deceptively better than a Metro Atlantic team, but the Peacocks’ schedule strength does not measure up to Final Four standards. What we’re looking at is an allowance horse champion trying to beat a Grade 1 Stakes winner in the Florida Derby with a trip to Churchill Downs on the line. For the sake of this system, the pick is North Carolina.

Kansas vs. Miami (Fla): After Selection Sunday, when we presented our massive Bracketnomics release, Kansas was our choice to go all the way and win the National Championship. The Jayhawks are halfway to the prize, but KU hasn’t won their games as convincingly as I hoped. Now the Jayhawks face a team that can attack them in a different way with Larranaga’s Runts. Miami is another team that the Bracketnomics say should not be here. Their R+T rating is the absolute lowest in R+T history of any Elite 8 team. In fact, they were not supposed to make it past the Round of 32 with this R+T rating.

In every facet that matters, KU has the advantage. This game should be a double-digit win for the Jayhawks, but with KU not clicking on all cylinders and Miami playing at its peak in the obviously underrated ACC, this game looks painfully closer than it should be. The pick is Kansas, but it may be one of those ugly wins.

March 24, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 24, 2022

Thursday, March 24, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
GonzagaArkansas10.2
VillanovaMichigan4.0
DukeTexas Tech-0.2
ArizonaHouston1.3

March 23, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics For Sweet 16

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:42 am

The 2022 edition of the PiRate Bracketnomics fared rather well compared to a large number of other options when looking for bracket-filling strategies. Obviously, neither our system nor any others pick perfect brackets or even ones where we pick 15 of the 16 teams in the Sweet 16.

We still have three of our Final Four and five of our Elite 8 still alive, as well as our picks for the National Championship Game.

We did not pick Saint Peter’s to be the real shocker, so our system missed that one entirely this year. Kentucky’s numbers were just incredibly better than the Peacocks, but the Wildcats looked like deer in the headlights all night in that game. St. Peter’s looked like a clearly superior team when they dismissed Murray State two days later.

Miami of Florida and Iowa State were somewhat of a surprise to us as well, but the Hurricanes’ ball-hawking defense countered being outrebounded by 10 and nine in their two wins. Iowa State relied on excellent half-court defense to get to this round.

The Sweet 16 is like the advances round of TV game shows. You know the type. In the first round, the questions are a little easier, but after the commercial break, the next round brings more difficult questions, and the strong separate themselves from the weak. In the Sweet 16, usually seven of the eight winners will be clearly superior to their victims, while there will be one new surprise making the Elite 8. We previously pointed out that one team that does not have our acceptable national championship resume will sneak into the Final Four. It doesn’t always happen, but like UCLA last year, usually one team will win games three and four in their tournament to make it to the third weekend in the big dome stadium.

Let’s take a look at the most important Bracketnomics numbers for each of the 16 teams.

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateOld R+T
Arizona71958.135.334.541.70.356.617.6
Arkansas541458.230.529.946.50.386.912.7
Duke44358.237.031.946.40.293.912.3
Gonzaga1957.237.429.241.60.317.021.2
Houston101056.534.237.744.00.2914.122.0
Iowa St.160560.331.928.150.60.281.33.9
Kansas62661.836.033.547.10.326.213.3
Miami (Fla.)1812157.934.422.753.20.29-5.4-3.0
Michigan197761.833.930.950.50.307.112.3
North Carolina204259.036.430.748.00.309.616.0
Providence325857.635.030.447.00.382.78.4
Purdue28960.138.835.148.70.3911.819.3
Saint Peter’s2252849.535.532.143.50.384.68.9
Texas Tech46161.032.233.244.00.366.318.1
UCLA121359.435.331.747.30.3010.516.9
Villanova83060.836.231.248.60.306.511.6

To briefly summarize what this data above means: O-Eff and D-Eff are the schedule strength-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The fat numbers are to have an O-Eff in the top 10 and a D-Eff in the top 20.

SOS is our own PiRate Ratings strength of schedule. A SOS of 55.0 is the minimum number to be considered a real national title contender. Going back to the beginning of the then 64-team tournament format, no team with an SOS below 55.0 has won the title.

37+3pt is the threshold for three-point shooting percentage. If it is north of 37%, the team with this big number will force defenses to spread out and open up the middle for easy two-point shots. Overall 3-point percentages have dropped a little in the last few years since the stripe was moved back a few inches.

OReb% is the percentage of missed shots rebounded by the offense. 37% is also the beginning point of excellence. If a team rebounds three out of every eight shots they miss, they can shoot 40% from the field and still win. If this same team shoots 45%, they can cut down the nets after the final game.

-45% vs.2pt is the defensive field goal percentage inside the 3-point line. If a defense allows less than 45% of the 2-point shots to be made, they have a championship-level defense.

FT Rate37 is the free throw ratio. If a team takes 3 foul shot attempts for every 8 field goal attempts, this team has an offense that forces defenses to grab because the offense is too potent.

The last two columns are our own unique R+T ratings. The new one is rate based on Four Factors data, while the old one is a counting stat. We don’t yet have a threshold for the new R+T, but the old R+T has been helping us pick winners in the Big Dance for two decades. If the R+T is 15 or better, this is a team that consistently goes on big scoring spurts, the type that frequently puts games away. 12.5 to 15 is really good. 8 to 12.5 is fairly good. 5-8 is so-so. Under 5 is not good, and below 0 is a 100% no go for the Final Four.

Let’s take a look at the eight Sweet 16 games

Gonzaga vs. Arkansas: Gonzaga has the best overall Bracketnomics resume, as they did last year. Their schedule strength is a mild issue but well within the bounds of a potential national champion. Yet, the Bulldogs have not looked their best in either NCAA Tournament win. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman is worth about 7-10 more points for his team than Penny Hardaway is for Memphis, and if that’s the case, The Razorbacks are good enough to pull off the big upset–if Gonzaga continues to play at a subpar level. There’s the rub. I don’t see Gonzaga coming out flat in this game. Their narrow escape in the Round of 32 should wake the Bulldogs up. Gonzaga’s numbers are clearly superior to Arkansas. Go with the Zags in a potential double digit win.

Villanova vs. Michigan: There is an interesting set of data for this game, where both teams have advantages and disadvantages. Michigan has a better inside presence, and the Wolverines figure to capitalize inside with a few extra baskets in their offensive halfcourt. Villanova’s overall offense is a bit too strong for Michigan’s defense, so the Wildcats’ perimeter is going to penetrate Michigan’s defense for easier shots than Michigan figures to take. Overall, Villanova has a slight advantage in the Bracketnomics data, but the advantage is slim. Let’s go with the Wildcats in a close one.

Duke vs. Texas Tech: Duke’s excellent offense faces Texas Tech’s number one defense–this should make for an exciting game. Usually, when a superior offense plays a superior defense, if all else is equal the superior offense wins more often than not. All else is not equal. If not for this being Coach K’s final year, and it looks like Duke has been benefiting from more than 50% of the 50-50 calls, this would be an easy selection, as the Red Raiders have a better overall team. On a Sweet 16 stage, maybe the referees will be more likely to get calls made correctly with hopes of being chosen for the Final Four, so Duke won’t get that benefit. If so, this might be the finale for Coach K. Texas Tech is just a bit better.

Arizona vs. Houston: What we have here is a failure to see a decisive favorite. Both teams have Final Four resumes and are clearly better than most of the other teams left in the Big Dance. The only issue in this game is the fact that a portion of Houston’s great numbers came with the addition of two former key starters that were lost to season-ending injuries earlier in the season. With their roster intact, this might have been the Houston team to do what Elvin Hayes and Don Chaney couldn’t do in the late 1960’s or what Phi Slama Jama couldn’t do in the mid 1980’s. Arizona doesn’t have the same amount of tournament experience that Houston has, as the Cougars made the Final Four last year. That’s the one thing that concerns us. Kelvin Sampson knows how to prepare a team to pay on the big stage. Arizona is the better team, but Sampson is worth a few extra points–just enough to have a 50-50 shot at the mild upset. I have to pick somebody here, but honestly, it can only be a hunch, as the Bracketnomics show this game as dead even. I’ll go with Sampson to defeat the Pac-12 Goliath by one or two points or in overtime.

Purdue vs. Saint Peter’s: Saint Peter’s has played incredible defense in their two wins, and if they could stop Oscar Tshiebwe and company, they have a chance to limit Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. But, doing so might allow Jaden Ivey to showcase his exceptional talents on the big stage. Purdue has not made the Final Four during the Gene Keady-Matt Painter era. The Boilermakers in the past had issues with R+T Ratings. This Purdue team does not have that issue, and they might run over the Peacocks like a runaway train. I think Cinderella experiences Midnight in this round, and Purdue wins by double digits.

Kansas vs. Providence: Ed Cooley has done an incredible job at Providence, but he is facing a team coming to its peak in efficiency, and Kansas is clearly the superior team across the board. With Remy Martin at full strength, the Jayhawks are better than their Bracketnomics Data indicates. Martin makes KU the best team in the Dance, and I expect Rock Chalk Jayhawk to keep advancing.

UCLA vs. North Carolina: College basketball royalty clashes in this one, and I don’t see this game being a mismatch like the 1968 National Championship Game. Looking at the Bracketnomics data, the two teams are evenly matched. There are secondary and tertiary data in this science, including tournament experience by players and coach. In all but one respect, the Bruins have the advantage in these extras.

Carolina’s one advantage is having an inside force that can dominate in the paint. Mick Cronin is coaching in his 13th NCAA Tournament and coming off a Final Four appearance with most of his key contributors returning. Hubert Davis is coaching in his first NCAA Tournament. That’s enough to pick UCLA to return to the Elite 8.

Miami (Fla.) vs. Iowa St.: This is the unique game in this round, as neither team has an acceptable Final Four Bracketnomics Resume. As previously mentioned, usually one of the four teams in the Final Four does not have the blueprint we use to pick our brackets. At least one team will make the Elite 8.

Iowa State has struggled to generate offense for long stretches of games, and they have had to rely on their defense to keep games close until the offense got on track. Miami’s small but very quick roster might be able to force the Cyclones into playing a style of ball they are not equipped to play. Let’s go with the U to become Elite. Jim Larranaga took George Mason to a Final Four.

March 19, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 pm

Sunday’s Games

Sunday, March 20, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
IllinoisHouston-3.3
VillanovaOhio St.4.4
DukeMichigan St.6.5
WisconsinIowa St.3.8
Texas TechNotre Dame7.3
AuburnMiami (Fla.)8.9
PurdueTexas2.6
ArizonaTCU10.3
XavierFlorida2.6
SMUWashington St.2.7
VanderbiltDayton2.3
North TexasVirginia3.2
OklahomaSt. Bonaventure6.7
VMIUNC Wilmington0.7
Florida AtlanticNorthern Colorado5.7
UNC GreensboroBoston1.3
Abilene ChristianTroy3.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Data

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Illinois233060.736.733.445.431.77.712.8
Houston101156.034.137.843.528.714.322.2
Villanova82861.035.930.948.230.54.811.5
Ohio St.1313160.037.328.846.233.5-1.06.0
Duke74457.636.831.846.928.64.112.7
Michigan St.385360.837.830.747.930.43.08.5
Wisconsin493860.131.225.949.932.33.47.3
Iowa St.1511059.736.828.250.728.11.23.8
Texas Tech65160.831.433.344.336.19.617.5
Notre Dame298456.838.022.549.327.0-2.53.8
Auburn24859.232.033.142.631.65.912.5
Miami (Fla.)1715757.035.323.453.928.8-5.01.3
Purdue310060.039.135.249.236.312.119.2
Texas321360.232.331.846.132.37.210.1
Arizona52058.235.434.541.935.17.017.9
TCU802460.330.437.847.931.212.516.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Game Analysis

Illinois vs. Houston

This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).

Villanova vs. Ohio St.

This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.

This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.

The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.

Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.

This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.

Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame

If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.

Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)

Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.

Purdue vs. Texas

This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.

Arizona vs. TCU

One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.

March 17, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Friday, March 18, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:14 pm
Friday, March 18, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
Ohio St.Loyola (Chi.)0.4
AuburnJacksonville St.16.4
Texas TechMontana St.15.0
PurdueYale15.1
VillanovaDelaware15.5
USCMiami (Fla.)2.1
AlabamaNotre Dame3.4
TexasVirginia Tech1.6
IllinoisChattanooga8.3
DukeCal St. Fullerton18.1
LSUIowa St.3.6
ArizonaWright St.20.4
HoustonUAB8.1
Michigan St.Davidson1.0
WisconsinColgate9.6
Seton HallTCU1.3

March 13, 2022

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:35 pm
DateFINAL
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaKansasBaylor
2KentuckyAuburnDukeVillanova
3TennesseePurdueTexas TechWisconsin
4UCLAIllinoisArkansasIowa
5ConnecticutHoustonProvidenceSaint Mary’s
6TexasLSUAlabamaColorado St.
7Michigan St.Ohio St.Boise St.USC
8TCUNorth CarolinaSeton HallSan Diego St.
9Murray St.MemphisCreightonMarquette
10San FranciscoIowa St.Loyola (Chi.)Virginia Tech
11Miami (Fla.)DavidsonRichmondIndiana
12South Dakota St.UABNotre DameWyomingTexas A&MMichigan
13VermontChattanoogaNew Mexico St.Akron
14Montana St.DelawareSaint Peter’sCal St. Fullerton
15YaleLongwoodGeorgia St.Colgate
16Jacksonville St.Norfolk St.Wright St.BryantTexas SouthernTexas A&M-CC

First 4 #16 Seeds: Wright St., Bryant, Texas Southern, Texas A&M–CC

Last 4 Byes: Iowa St., Miami (Fla.), Davidson, Indiana

Last 4 In: Notre Dame, Wyoming, Texas A&M, Michigan

First 4 Out: SMU, Xavier, Rutgers, Wake Forest,

Next 4 Out: BYU, VCU, Oklahoma, Saint Louis

March 1, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Tuesday’s Conference Tournaments
Atlantic Sun–1st Round –Campus Sites
HomeVisitorsSpread
Central ArkansasStetson-0.2
Kennesaw St.Eastern Kentucky3.7
Florida Gulf CoastNorth Alabama10.0
LipscombNorth Florida1.3
Horizon League–1st Round–Campus Sites
HomeVisitorsSpread
OaklandIUPUI23.1
DetroitGreen Bay11.3
Youngstown St.Robert Morris7.4
MilwaukeeIllinois Chicago-1.1
Patriot League–1st Round–Campus Sites
HomeVisitorsSpread
Holy CrossAmerican0.8
LafayetteBucknell4.4
Regularly Scheduled Games
HomeVisitorsSpread
VillanovaProvidence9.2
GeorgiaTennessee-16.2
RichmondDayton0.6
KentuckyMississippi17.1
Ohio St.Nebraska15.2
ManhattanSaint Peter’s-4.0
MaineVermont-19.6
Stony BrookNJIT8.8
UMass LowellNew Hampshire3.1
AlbanyHartford2.8
Maryland Baltimore Co.Binghamton5.2
OklahomaWest Virginia4.6
Eastern MichiganWestern Michigan4.9
Bowling GreenOhio-7.4
Ball St.Akron-3.7
BuffaloToledo-0.4
Central MichiganMiami (O)-2.3
South CarolinaMissouri7.8
TCUKansas-6.3
PittsburghDuke-15.1
Northern IllinoisKent St.-7.9
MichiganMichigan St.3.2
VCUSt. Bonaventure3.7
VanderbiltFlorida0.3
WisconsinPurdue-2.6
HoustonCincinnati15.6
Montana St.Southern Utah2.8
Virginia TechLouisville10.2
Boise St.Nevada10.6
Air ForceSan Jose St.4.9
UC Santa BarbaraCal St. Northridge15.2
USCArizona-5.4
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