2011 Sunbelt Conference Preview

2011 Sunbelt Conference Preview

 

The guard may be in process of changing in the Sunbelt Conference.  Florida International and Troy finished tied for first at 6-2 last year, but FIU defeated the Trojans by 17. 

 

Florida International returns an experienced quarterback in Wesley Carroll, good depth at running back with Darriet Perry and Darian Mallary capable of teaming for 1,800 rushing yards, and the top receiver in the league and a possible high NFL draft choice in T. Y. Hilton.  Their offensive line is close to the best in the league and could emerge as the best if someone can step forward at center.  FIU should top 30 points and 400 yards per game this season.

 

Defensively, the Golden Panthers should be as good as or better than last season.  The one question mark will be at linebacker.

 

Louisiana Monroe is the wildcard in this season’s SBC race.  The Warriors return 17 starters from a year ago and should definitely improve on their 4-4 conference mark and 5-7 record overall.  An overtime loss to eventual champion FIU and a one-point loss to Louisiana in the season finale was all that kept ULM from winning the league last year.  The Warriors figure to be at least 7-10 points better in 2011, and when they host FIU on November 19, it could very well be for the 2011 SBC title.

 

Kolton Browning is an excellent dual threat quarterback.  He completed 62% of his passes last year as a freshman.  His top four receivers return this year, and ULM should gain 250 yards through the air this season.

 

The defense must improve after giving up 32 points per game last year.  The Warriors gave up 4.4 yards per carry, and that number will not win a conference championship.

 

Troy is not out, but they are down a bit.  The Trojans were hit hard after the end of the season losing two wide receivers that were expected to contribute heavily in 2011.  Chip Reeves and Jamel Johnson would have been the two leading returning receivers for the league’s best passer, Corey Robinson.

 

Troy should have a much improved defense this season after giving up more than 30 points per game in 2010.  However, the Trojans’ offense may not repeat last year’s results when they averaged 34 points and 450+ yards per game. 

 

Defensively, end Jonathan Massaquoi will contend for defensive Player of the Year honors.  Massaquoi recorded more than 20 tackles for loss with 13 ½ sacks last year.  He will see more double teams with the departure of Mario Addison.

 

Arkansas State could have been 8-4 instead of 4-8.  The Red Wolves will be the most exciting team in the league with their no-huddle hurry-up offense.  An inexperienced offensive line could be their downfall.  If the green OL can protect quarterback Ryan Aplin, ASU’s passing game could top 275 yards per game through the air.  Dwayne Frampton, Allen Muse, and Taylor Stockemer return after combining for 145 receptions, 1,933 yards, and 16 touchdowns last year, and this year junior college transfer Jose Jarboe joins the fold to give the Red Wolves a receiving corps that has no peers inside the league.

 

Unfortunately, the hurry-up offense means the defense may have to hurry to get back on the field for too many plays.  ASU’s defense does not have the depth to stay on the field for 75 plays a game and be effective.

 

Western Kentucky is being picked near the bottom of the conference by the media, but we believe the Hilltoppers will be much improved this year.  WKU was outscored by just 2.6 points per game in league play, and they were only outgained by 20 yards per game.  With most of their skilled players returning on offense as well as some decent depth in the trenches, the Hilltoppers could flirt with a winning record in 2011.  A tough non-conference schedule could prevent that from happening, but we would not be surprised if WKU’s conference record was .500 or better.

 

Running back Bobby Rainey returns after leading the league with 1,649 yards rushing.  If the Hilltoppers can come up with just a little more balance on the attack side, they could threaten the 28 points per game mark.

 

Defensively, WKU was too easy to run on.  The Hilltoppers gave up five yards per carry, and still they were often burned by enemy passing games.  The defense will be quite a bit improved, but it is still not championship quality.

 

Middle Tennessee has never won the SBC title; they have flirted for years with championship material, but the Blue Raiders have been the Fresno State of the Sunbelt.  2011 should see Middle Tennessee take a step back after going to bowls both of the last two seasons. 

 

The Blue Raiders must rebuild on defense, and they were not all that tough on that side of the ball, giving up 120 points and 1,426 yards to Troy, Arkansas State, and FIU, the top three offenses in the league.

 

There could be a diamond in the rough on the offensive side of the ball.  Running back Jeremiah Bryson was headed to Pittsburgh, but he changed his mind to stay closer to home due to family issues.  Bryson could be the best back in Murfreesboro since Dwone Hicks played there a decade ago.

 

It is hard to believe that it has been seven years since North Texas was the original Troy of the Sunbelt.  The Mean Green won the league title four years in a row from 2001 to 2004, but UNT hasn’t tasted success since, going just 13-58 in the past in the last six seasons.  New head coach Dan McCarney will try to resurrect the program.  McCarney brought Iowa State back to respectability, taking the Cyclones to five bowls in six years and coming within a missed kick of winning the Big 12 North twice.  McCarney was Urban Meyer’s top assistant at Florida the last three years. 

 

McCarney dismissed top receiver Darius Carey from the team, and the UNT passing attack will struggle this year.  Sophomore quarterback Derek Thompson will battle Juco transfer Brent Osborn.  Whoever emerges as the starter will be handing the ball to Lance Dunbar about 25 times per game.  Dunbar rushed for 1,553 yards and 13 scores last year, and he caught 28 passes for three more touchdowns.

 

Defensively, the Mean Green were quite improved last year, although they still gave up 30 points and almost 400 yards per game.  Just three years ago, they gave up close to 50 points and 500 yards per game.  There could be additional improvement in 2011, but a tough schedule should prevent UNT from threatening for bowl eligibility.

 

Louisiana starts from scratch with new coach Mark Hudspeth.  Every place Hudspeth has gone, his teams have won, and the folks in Lafayette are excited in hopes that he will turn the program around.  UL’s last winning season was in the previous century, so do not expect miracles in year one.  In fact, the Ragin’ Cajuns could even take a small step back from last season’s 3-9 finish.

 

Quarterback Chris Masson is not going to be confused with Jake Delhomme, but the senior should improve on his 52.9 completion percentage this season.  He played in a shotgun formation last year and will be under center most of the time this season.  Masson has the top tight end target in the league in LaDarius Green.  Green is a threat to get open in the seams of zones and present a monstrous target.

 

An inexperienced offensive line will spell doom for the offense this year, but UL could have some memorable moments.

 

The defense is going to have some rough Saturdays once again.  UL surrendered 37 points and just under 400 yards per game last year, and even an improvement to 30 points allowed will not be enough to move the Ragin’ Cajuns north in the standings.

 

Florida Atlantic head coach Howard Schnellenberger just announced that 2011 will be his last.  Schnellenberger, 77, has a storied history in football.  He was recruited to Kentucky by Bear Bryant and later served on some of the best coaching staffs of all time.  As an assistant at his alma mater in the late 1950’s, he served under future NFL Champion coach Blanton Collier along with Don Shula and Bill Arnsparger.  As an assistant at Alabama, the Crimson Tide won multiple national titles, and he was the key recruiter that landed Joe Namath.  As an assistant in the NFL, he won a Super Bowl ring with Shula at Miami after helping the Rams win two division titles in the late 1960’s.  Throw in a college football championship at the U of Miami, and that is more than enough for any one man.  He was not finished.  He returned to his city of childhood and built Louisville into a major force in college football.  He also started the program at FAU. 

 

We mention all these things, because the 2011 season could be a really lousy way to exit the profession.  The Owls were the weakest offensive team in the SBC last year, and they lost most of their good players, including quarterback Jeff Van Camp and his top three receivers.  FAU had trouble running the ball, and it will be difficult to improve the running game with an inexperienced passing game this season.  The one positive is the return of all starting offensive linemen.

 

Defensively, opponents had little difficulty running or passing against the Owls in 2010, and the scary news is that the 2011 defense could be a little weaker.  Five of the top six tacklers from last year are gone.

 

Sunbelt Conference Preseason Media Poll
Team			First Place Votes	Points
1. Florida Int’l			5	75
2. Troy			2	66
3. Middle Tennessee				54
4. Louisiana-Monroe				54
5. Arkansas St.			1	49
6. North Texas				33
7. Western Kentucky			1	28
8. Louisiana				26
9. Florida Atlantic				20
The PiRate Ratings
Team			PiRate #	Prediction
1. Florida Int’l			87.1	7-1/8-4
2. Louisiana-Monroe			82.3	7-1/8-4
3. Troy			81.3	6-2/6-6
4. Arkansas State			81.3	4-4/5-7
5. Western Kentucky			75.1	3-5/4-8
6. Middle Tennessee			72.8	4-4/5-7
7. North Texas			71.9	3-5/3-9
8. Louisiana			71.7	1-7/2-10
9. Florida Atlantic			68.7	1-7/1-11

Next: The Mid-American Conference Preview, Tuesday, August 16 

The PiRates Have Returned To Dry Land Ready For Football

When we last spoke with you, it was undecided whether we would present football ratings for 2011-12.  At the time, there was no end in sight for the NFL lockout, and we were head strong in support of boycotting the college football season as a show of opposition to the post-season bowls.

 

In July, as our gardens became tumbleweeds in the oppressive heat, we had some extra time on our hands to discuss just what we would do this year.  Upon further review, we have decided to issue our college ratings as usual, but only after we make a special post concerning the bowl games.  That will come next week. 

 

As for the NFL, it will be at least three to three and a half weeks before we can update the ratings due to the tight window of wheeling and dealing.  We will not be able to offer an in-depth preview of each NFL division like in past years—it will just be ratings and a brief synopsis of how we see the races and playoffs.  We will offer a brain-teasing trivia quiz dedicated to those 50 and over who remember the NFL/AFL at its best—in the 1950’s and 1960’s.  For those not gifted with gray hair or hairlessness yet, you just might learn some very interesting facts that you can spring on your friends at your local watering hole.  Some will be very tricky indeed.

 

Beginning August 15, we will begin previewing the college conferences.  Here is the schedule for those conference previews:

 

Monday, August 15:SunbeltConference

Tuesday, August 16: Mid-American Conference

Wednesday, August 17: ConferenceUSA

Thursday, August 18: Western Athletic Conference

Friday, August 19: Independents

Monday, August 22: Mountain West Conference

Tuesday, August 23: Big East Conference

Wednesday, August 24:AtlanticCoastConference

Thursday, August 25: Pacific 12 Conference

Friday, August 26: Big 12 Conference

Monday, August 29: Southeastern Conference

Tuesday, August 30: Big Ten Conference

 

We realize that about 15% of you reading this are fans ofVanderbiltUniversitydown inNashville, who followed our founder when he wrote for Vanderbilt Athletics.  We also realize that about 35% of you reading this are residents of the great state ofWisconsinor Badger fans living in the hinterlands.  Thus, on August 29, there will be expanded coverage of the Vanderbilt Commodores, and on August 30, there will be expanded coverage on the Wisconsin Badgers, as they compete for the first Leaders Division title and another conference championship in the exciting, expanded Big Ten.

 

Check back next week for an all-inclusive post about how you can boycott the bowl sponsors and help bring about a post-season playoff.  We have a fresh way of satisfying both the bowls and a playoff at the same time.  To those that have heard our proposal, we have received 100% approval of our idea.  Check back next week for that idea.

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	132.5	12	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Auburn	131.0	13	0
5	Boise State	128.8	11	1
6	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
7	Oklahoma	127.7	11	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	124.2	11	2
12	Florida State	119.8	9	4
13	South Carolina	119.4	9	4
14	Nebraska	118.9	10	3
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	117.0	9	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Nevada	115.7	12	1
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Florida	115.3	7	5
23	Missouri	115.2	10	2
24t	Arizona	115.2	7	5
24t	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-4	119.8
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	11-2	124.2
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	117.0
Pittsburgh	5-2	7-5	110.7
Connecticut	5-2	8-4	108.0
South Florida	3-4	7-5	106.9
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-5	4-8	100.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-6	4-8	89.5

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Illinois	4-4	6-6	104.4
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-3	118.9
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	11-2	127.7
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	10-3	102.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-6	92.7
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Miami (O)	7-1	9-4	90.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-3	104.1
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-11	80.4
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	9-0	12-0	132.5
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-5	7-5	115.2
Southern Cal	5-4	8-5	112.0
Arizona St.	4-5	6-6	111.0
Oregon St.	4-5	5-7	109.6
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	5-4	6-6	107.1
U C L A	2-7	4-8	101.8
Washington State	1-8	2-10	94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-4	119.4
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	13-0	131.0
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-2	6-6	87.0
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	6-2	7-5	85.8
Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	82.8
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1
Florida Atlantic	3-5	4-8	73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-1	11-1	128.8
Nevada	7-1	12-1	115.9
Hawaii	7-1	10-3	108.9
Fresno State	5-3	8-4	98.2
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7	93.0
Idaho	3-5	6-7	88.1
Utah State	2-6	4-8	88.0
San Jose State	0-8	1-12	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Navy	Army (Philadelphia)	14.4	31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army  (Philadelphia)	31-23	27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	131.9	11	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Boise State	130.6	10	1
5	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
6	Auburn	127.5	12	0
7	Oklahoma	127.1	10	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	123.1	10	2
12	South Carolina	122.9	9	3
13	Florida State	120.9	9	3
14	Nebraska	119.5	10	2
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	116.8	8	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Arizona	116.3	7	4
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Nevada	115.3	11	1
23	Florida	115.3	7	5
24	Missouri	115.2	10	2
25	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-3	120.9
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	10-2	123.1
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	4-2	8-3	116.8
Pittsburgh	4-2	6-5	108.6
Connecticut	4-2	7-4	107.6
South Florida	3-3	7-4	107.3
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-4	4-7	102.8
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-5	4-7	89.7

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-2	119.5
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	10-2	127.1
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	9-3	103.2
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-5	92.4
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Miami (O)	7-1	8-4	87.8
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-2	106.9
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-10	82.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	8-0	11-0	131.9
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-4	7-4	116.3
Southern Cal	4-4	7-5	111.0
Oregon St.	4-4	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	3-5	5-6	109.9
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	4-4	5-6	106.9
U C L A	2-6	4-7	102.8
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-3	122.9
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	12-0	127.5
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-1	6-5	88.4
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	5-2	6-5	82.8
Middle Tennessee	4-3	5-6	81.4
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Florida Atlantic	3-4	4-7	76.7
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-1	10-1	130.6
Nevada	6-1	11-1	115.3
Hawaii	7-1	9-3	106.8
Fresno State	5-3	7-4	97.5
Louisiana Tech	4-3	5-6	93.6
Idaho	2-5	5-7	89.3
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-7	1-11	77.3
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	8.9	31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	4.1	31-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)   (Detroit)	19.1	42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Southern Cal	U C L A	6.2	34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	2.7	20-17
Oregon	OREGON STATE	18.7	45-26
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	10.0	31-21
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	30.1	42-12
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	2.8	24-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	10.0	34-24
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	3.1	30-27
BOISE STATE	Utah State	47.4	61-14
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	18.2	35-17
IDAHO	San Jose State	14.5	38-23
HAWAII	U n l v	28.3	49-21
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	4.6	35-30
Virginia Tech	Florida State (Charlotte)	2.2	25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	13.8	35-21
Oklahoma	Nebraska (Dallas)	7.6	21-13

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	31-21	27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	34-31	34-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)  (Detroit)	35-24	41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Southern Cal	U C L A	31-21	30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	27-24	27-23
Oregon	OREGON STATE	49-26	51-19
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	35-27	35-20
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	34-14	34-14
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	34-22	28-26
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	31-24	34-28
BOISE STATE	Utah State	56-20	59-17
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	37-17	35-31
IDAHO	San Jose State	42-24	45-28
HAWAII	U n l v	49-20	48-14
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	38-24	34-24
Virginia Tech	Florida State  (Charlotte)	26-25	27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	34-26	35-30
Oklahoma	Nebraska  (Dallas)	21-16	22-20

Bowl Projections Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	B Y U 6-6	WAC (#3?)	Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Miami (O) 8-5	WAC #(1) or 2	Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	Connecticut 7-5	C-USA #4-6	Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO	MWC #1	Utah 10-2	Pac 10 #5	[Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	S. D. State 8-4	Navy or WAC	NAVY 9-3
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	HAWAII 10-3	C-USA #2-6	Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Louisville 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	Notre Dame 7-5	ACC #3	N. C. State 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 7-5
Military	ACC #8	Boston Coll. 7-5	C-USA #6	E C U 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Penn State 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Oklahoma St. 10-2	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	S M U 7-6	MWC #3-5/Army	Army 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 7-5	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Maryland 8-4
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	N. Carolina 8-4	Big East #3-4	S. Florida 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	Miami (FL) 7-5	Pac 10 #4	[Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6	C-USA #1	Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	Miss. State 8-4	ACC #2	Florida State 9-4
Ticket City	Big 10 #6-7	Northwestern 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 7-5
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan St. 11-1	SEC #2	L S U 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Illinois 7-5	SEC #6	Florida 7-5
Rose	BCS Pac10	T C U 12-0	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 11-2	BCS At-Large	Stanford 11-1
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	West Va. 9-3
Sugar	BCS SEC	Ohio State 11-1	BCS At-Large	Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 7-5	MAC #1 or 2	Toledo 8-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska 10-3	SEC #3-6 W	Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass	Big East #5	Pittsburgh 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Temple 8-4]	WAC #1	Nevada 11-1
Championship Game	*** BCS #1 ***	Oregon 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 23-27, 2010

The Winning Streak Comes To An End

It had to happen.  We knew we could not go through the entire season with one winning week after another.  Our luck ran dry this weekend.  Our picks went 2-2-1 against the spread, which in our terms, is a losing week, since you lay 10-11 odds when picking straight sides.

 

Perhaps we should not have deviated from our sweetheart teaser picks, but we liked the five games we selected.  Let’s quickly reveal our picks so we can move on and talk college football

 

1. Tennessee -9 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

Okay, if you are one of our regular subscribers to our handicapping service, maybe you did enjoy a winning week.  For, we told you that we felt that the Vols had a 99% chance of covering at -9.  If you decided to make this your only pick, then you went 1-0.

 

Vanderbilt has run out of gas, while Tennessee is on their annual November roll.  The final score was only 24-10, and we had to sweat out a late Vandy run with backup quarterback Jared Funk.

 

2. Ohio State -3 vs. Iowa

Push

This game surprised us a bit.  We felt as if the Buckeyes were ready to pull off a two touchdown win, and when the offense struggled early, we were concerned.  Ohio State is not as strong as they were supposed to be, and they should not have gained ground on Wisconsin in the BCS standings. 

 

3. Texas A&M + 2 ½ vs. Nebraska

WON

Please don’t let Bo Pelini hear this.  We told our subscribers that we had a sneaky suspicion that Nebraska would see a lot of questionable officiating calls go against them in this game, just like it happened against Texas.  The national media has to put on a good face, but we could care less about stepping on toes of the Big 12 Conference.  We warned our fans on Thursday that we suspected this would happen.  The game was considered a tossup, so we felt A&M would win by a touchdown.  It was only by a field goal, but we won any way.

 

4. Cleveland Browns + 1 ½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lost

The Browns’ short flirtation with respectability has gone back into hibernation.  We blew this one royally, thinking the boys from Lake Erie would win by 7-10 points.

 

5. San Francisco 49ers + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Lost

Tampa Bay has proven they are playoff worthy.  San Francisco’s offensive woes continue, and yet they are still in contention in the worst division in the history of NFL football.

 

A Look At The FBS Conference Races and Bowls

There are 35 bowls this year.  Thus, 70 teams need to be bowl eligible.  With two weeks to go in the season, only 64 teams are bowl eligible.  It is a sure thing that at least one or two others will gain bowl eligibility due to the schedule.  What happens if the magic number falls short of 70?  Will the NCAA allow 5-7 teams into the bowls?  Who would want to see a 5-7 and 6-6 team face off in a loser bowl?

 

A 12-team playoff, using the top 11 bowls would leave 24 bowls for the rest of the NCAA.  This would not be a problem.  The bowl that might end up with a 5-7 team would end up with a 7-5 or 8-4 team under a 12-team playoff.

 

The PiRate Ratings have conducted simulated NCAA football playoffs the past two seasons, and we will do so again after the end of the regular season.

 

Let’s look at each conference as it stands today.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech has sewn up the Coastal Division Championship.  They will face either North Carolina State or Florida State.  If N.C. State beats Maryland, they win the division title.  If Maryland wins, Florida State goes to the ACC title game.

 

Nine teams are already bowl eligible, and the conference has eight bowl tie-ins.  Expect all nine teams to land in bowls.

 

 

Big East

No team in this league belongs in a BCS bowl game.  TCU and Boise State are 21 points better than the best team in the Big East.  The cold hard fact is that the winner of this conference will be the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl picks—the Fiesta Bowl. 

 

Pittsburgh has a one game lead over West Virginia and Connecticut.  They would lose a three-way tiebreaker if the three finished 5-2.

 

Connecticut, South Florida, and Syracuse are bowl eligible.  Louisville is one win away, while Cincinnati and Rutgers are still in contention at 4-6.  We think UL will get that sixth win this week against Rutgers, while Cincinnati falls short.  Throw in Notre Dame, which will finish no worse than 6-6, and there will be enough teams to satisfy the league’s allotment.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Three teams are in contention for the Rose Bowl with one week to go.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tied at 6-1.  If they all win this week, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings will get the Rose Bowl bid.  Wisconsin holds a marginal lead over Ohio State.  The Badgers face Northwestern, while the Buckeyes host Michigan.  It will be a close vote if both win.  Michigan State wins a tiebreaker with Wisconsin, while Wisconsin wins a tiebreaker with Ohio State.  If Ohio State and Michigan State finish tied at 7-1, the Buckeyes will be the higher ranked team in the BCS and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

Eight teams are bowl eligible, and there is a decent chance that a second team will get a BCS at-large bid.  That would make nine bowl openings for eight teams, and the need for an at-large representative for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

 

 

 

Big 12

The Big 12 is out of the national championship picture this year.  Nebraska will win the North Division with a win over Colorado or a Missouri loss to Kansas.  Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma to wrap up the South Division, but the Sooners could easily win this game.  If Texas A&M beats Texas, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, it will take five steps into the conference’s tiebreaker rules to determine the representative for the Big 12 Championship Game.  Oklahoma would hold the leg up over the other two.

 

Colorado and Texas need wins to gain bowl eligibility, but it is our opinion that both will lose their finales and miss out.  That will leave eight bowl eligible teams for eight bowls.

 

 

 

Conference USA

In the East, Central Florida is as close to in the league title game as a team can be and not already have it clinched.  UCF only needs to beat hapless Memphis to secure the division flag.  It is a certainty.

 

In the West, SMU controls its own destiny.  However, the Mustangs play at East Carolina this week.  We believe the Pirates will win.  That means Tulsa would capture the flag with a win over Southern Miss.  We will give the Golden Hurricane the edge.

 

Houston needs a win at Texas Tech to gain bowl eligibility, but the Cougars are wounded without their top two quarterbacks.  No bowl for Houston this year.

 

 

 

Independents

Navy is bowl eligible, and the Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  Army is also bowl eligible, and they will get an at-large selection somewhere.  Notre Dame is bowl eligible, and they will either receive one of the Big East bowl bids or an at-large bid.

 

 

Mid-American

As usual, there are always more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids for the MAC.  Ohio, Temple, and Miami (O) from the East and Northern Illinois and Toledo from the West are bowl eligible.  Western Michigan will become bowl eligible with a win at Bowling Green.  That will leave six teams available for three bids.  Expect five of the six to go bowling.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

TCU’s blowout win over New Mexico this week will give the Horned Frogs their second consecutive undefeated regular season finish and at-large selection to a BCS Bowl.  There is a small chance that they could play for the National Championship.  Their BCS ranking will drop by playing the 1-10 Lobos, while Boise State finished on the road against a ranked team.

 

Five teams are bowl eligible, and all five will go to bowls.  That will leave one bowl spot open for an at-large invitee—the New Mexico Bowl.

 

 

 

Pac-10

This is the messy conference.  To start out, Southern Cal is ineligible for a bowl.  Throw in the chance that Stanford will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  Now, top it off with the fact that Arizona is the only other bowl eligible team at this point.  California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, but we believe only one of these five will do it.  That means this league could fall three bids short.

 

 

 

Southeastern

“As the Cam Turns” is the top-rated soap opera in the South during November sweeps.  It just may turn south on Auburn this week.  We think Alabama is going to end the Tigers’ championship hopes this week.  We cannot see any scenario where Auburn would jump Boise State and TCU after losing this late in the season.  It is no gimme that the Tigers can beat South Carolina twice in one season.

 

LSU can grab an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl with a win at Arkansas, but we believe the Razorbacks will put an end to those aspirations.

 

Georgia and Tennessee need victories this week to gain bowl eligibility.  We think both will be victorious.  That will leave 10 bowl eligible teams for nine bowls and an at-large bid.

 

 

 

 

Sunbelt

Somebody has to win this league.  With two weeks left in the season, one for UL-Monroe, no team has earned bowl eligibility.  The schedule guarantees that at least one team will become bowl eligible, and we think at least two will pick up a sixth win.  For a change, Troy may not win the conference championship.

 

 

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has a tough finale at Nevada this week, but we do not believe the boys from Reno have a strong enough defense to slow down the Broncos.  Boise State is our top-rated team, and we feel like they would be a field goal choice over Oregon in a national title game.  A win at Nevada should allow the Broncos to jump over TCU in the BCS standings, and if Auburn loses to Alabama, it should put BSU into the number two slot.

 

Louisiana Tech and Idaho still have remote chances at bowl eligibility, but we think both will fall one game short.  With BSU getting a BCS Bowl bid, the WAC will fall one team short in its bowl obligations. 

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 22, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Boise State	134.6	10	0
2	T C U	132.9	11	0
3	Oregon	132.1	10	0
4	Stanford	129.7	10	1
5	Alabama	127.5	9	2
6	Ohio State	127.1	10	1
7	Oklahoma	127.0	9	2
8	Auburn	126.2	11	0
9	Arkansas	124.4	9	2
10	Virginia Tech	122.8	9	2
11	Wisconsin	122.7	10	1
12	South Carolina	121.1	8	3
13	Texas A&M	118.8	8	3
14	Nebraska	118.8	9	2
15	Florida State	118.2	8	3
16	L S U	118.0	10	1
17t	Florida	118.0	7	4
17t	Miami (Fla)	118.0	7	4
19	Iowa	117.3	7	4
20	Oklahoma State	116.4	10	1
21	Arizona	116.1	7	3
22	North Carolina	115.6	6	5
23	Georgia	115.5	5	6
24	Missouri	114.9	9	2
25	Mississippi State	114.8	7	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	8-3	118.2
Clemson	4-4	6-5	112.8
North Carolina State	5-2	8-3	111.4
Maryland	4-3	7-4	104.7
Boston College	4-4	6-5	103.9
Wake Forest	1-7	2-9	89.9
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	7-0	9-2	122.8
Miami-FL	5-3	7-4	118.0
North Carolina	3-4	6-5	115.6
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-5	108.7
Virginia	1-6	4-7	95.3
Duke	1-6	3-8	95.1

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	114.6
Pittsburgh	4-1	6-4	110.8
Connecticut	3-2	6-4	106.4
South Florida	3-3	6-4	104.5
Cincinnati	2-3	4-6	104.0
Louisville	2-4	5-6	102.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-4	101.1
Rutgers	1-4	4-6	91.1

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	10-1	127.1
Wisconsin	6-1	10-1	122.7
Iowa	4-3	7-4	117.3
Michigan State	6-1	10-1	110.2
Michigan	3-4	7-4	106.5
Penn State	4-3	7-4	105.1
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Northwestern	3-4	7-4	95.4
Minnesota	1-6	2-9	94.0
Purdue	2-5	4-7	92.5
Indiana	0-7	4-7	88.7

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-2	9-2	118.8
Missouri	5-2	9-2	114.9
Kansas State	3-5	6-5	100.7
Colorado	2-5	5-6	100.3
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-6	3-8	88.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	5-2	9-2	127.0
Texas A&M	5-2	8-3	118.8
Oklahoma State	6-1	10-1	116.4
Texas	2-5	5-6	106.0
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	6-5	104.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	6-1	8-3	104.8
Southern Mississippi	5-2	8-3	98.6
East Carolina	5-2	6-5	90.2
U A B	3-4	4-7	86.8
Marshall	3-4	4-7	83.6
Memphis	0-7	1-10	69.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	5-2	8-3	98.1
Houston	4-4	5-6	96.5
S M U	5-2	6-5	92.2
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	2-5	3-8	84.0
Tulane	2-5	4-7	74.8

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-5	107.0
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-2	8-3	95.2
Ohio U	6-1	8-3	91.7
Miami (O)	6-1	7-4	85.2
Kent St.	3-4	4-7	80.6
Bowling Green	1-6	2-9	77.1
Buffalo	1-6	2-9	71.5
Akron	0-7	0-11	66.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	7-0	9-2	103.9
Toledo	6-1	7-4	88.5
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	86.7
Central Michigan	2-5	3-8	84.5
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-5	2-9	69.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	132.9
Utah	6-1	9-2	111.7
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-2	6-5	104.2
S. D. State	4-3	7-4	102.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-5	2-9	84.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-6	1-10	75.4

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-0	10-0	132.1
Stanford	7-1	10-1	129.7
Arizona	4-3	7-3	116.1
Southern Cal	4-4	7-4	112.9
Oregon St.	4-3	5-5	112.3
California	3-5	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	109.2
Washington	3-4	4-6	105.1
U C L A	2-5	4-6	103.5
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	8-3	121.1
Florida	4-4	7-4	118.0
Georgia	3-5	5-6	115.5
Kentucky	2-5	6-5	106.9
Tennessee	2-5	5-6	105.0
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-9	88.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-2	9-2	127.5
Auburn	7-0	11-0	126.2
Arkansas	5-2	9-2	124.4
L S U	6-1	10-1	118.0
Mississippi State	3-4	7-4	114.8
Ole Miss	1-6	4-7	100.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	5-1	5-5	88.1
Arkansas State	4-3	4-7	84.2
Troy	4-2	5-5	82.2
Middle Tennessee	3-3	4-6	79.9
North Texas	3-5	3-8	79.0
Louisiana-Monroe	4-3	5-6	78.9
Florida Atlantic	3-3	4-6	78.2
U. of Louisiana	2-5	2-9	76.8
Western Kentucky	2-5	2-9	75.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-0	10-0	134.6
Nevada	5-1	10-1	111.3
Hawaii	6-1	8-3	106.2
Fresno State	4-3	6-4	97.7
Louisiana Tech	3-3	4-6	94.0
Idaho	2-4	5-6	89.1
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-6	1-10	76.9
New Mexico State	1-6	2-9	72.5

 

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Temple	MIAMI (O)	7.0	28-21
Thursday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Texas A&M	TEXAS	10.3	24-14
Friday, November 26
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Louisville	RUTGERS	8.6	28-19
Western Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	6.6	27-20
West Virginia	PITTSBURGH	1.3	21-20
ALABAMA	Auburn	3.8	31-27
Buffalo	AKRON	2.6	24-21
TOLEDO	Central Michigan	7.0	38-31
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	31.5	45-13
EAST CAROLINA	S m u	1.0	35-34
Ohio U	KENT STATE	8.6	30-21
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	8.7	26-17
NEBRASKA	Colorado	21.5	28-6
TULSA	Southern Miss.	2.5	38-35
OREGON	Arizona	19.5	44-24
Boise State	NEVADA	26.3	46-20
Saturday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARKANSAS	L s u	9.4	35-26
STANFORD	Oregon State	20.4	37-17
CONNECTICUT	Cincinnati	5.4	26-21
FLORIDA STATE	Florida	2.7	27-24
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	9.3	33-24
North Carolina St.	MARYLAND	3.7	24-20
Iowa	MINNESOTA	20.3	37-17
Mississippi State	OLE MISS	11.4	28-17
North Carolina	DUKE	18.5	45-26
SYRACUSE	Boston College	0.2	17-17 to ot
OHIO STATE	Michigan	23.6	44-20
Oklahoma	OKLAHOMA STATE	8.1	34-26
Michigan State	PENN STATE	2.1	30-28
South Carolina	CLEMSON	5.8	34-28
VANDERBILT	Wake Forest	2.0	26-24
RICE	U a b	0.2	34-34 to ot
Kansas State	NORTH TEXAS	18.7	44-25
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	30.0	37-7
WISCONSIN	Northwestern	30.3	51-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Arkansas State	6.4	34-28
MIAMI (FL)	South Florida	16.5	38-21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Atlantic	4.2	31-27
UL-MONROE	UL-Lafayette	4.6	26-21
PURDUE	Indiana	6.8	38-31
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	1.1	35-34
TEXAS TECH	Houston	10.7	45-34
TROY	Western Kentucky	9.5	38-28
Central Florida	MEMPHIS	33.2	40-7
MARSHALL	Tulane	11.8	35-23
Missouri	Kansas (Kansas City)	26.4	40-14
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO STATE	30.7	45-14
UTAH	B y u	10.0	34-24
T c u	NEW MEXICO	55.0	55-0
SAN DIEGO STATE	U n l v	20.9	42-21
Louisiana Tech	SAN JOSE STATE	14.1	31-17
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	8.9	33-24
FRESNO STATE	Idaho	11.6	38-26

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Temple	MIAMI (O)	27-20	27-16
Thursday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Texas A&M	TEXAS	23-13	20-14
Friday, November 26
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Louisville	RUTGERS	24-21	28-17
Western Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	35-28	38-16
PITTSBURGH	West Virginia	17-14	17-14
ALABAMA	Auburn	31-27	31-28
Buffalo	AKRON	23-20	23-20
TOLEDO	Central Michigan	38-30	41-21
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	45-19	49-17
EAST CAROLINA	S m u	36-34	34-38
Ohio U	KENT STATE	35-23	33-14
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	31-20	27-20
NEBRASKA	Colorado	28-9	23-17
TULSA	Southern Miss.	41-37	44-34
OREGON	Arizona	42-23	41-23
Boise State	NEVADA	42-30	60-31
Saturday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARKANSAS	L s u	31-27	31-20
STANFORD	Oregon State	37-20	38-19
CONNECTICUT	Cincinnati	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA STATE	Florida	30-27	30-27
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	31-20	28-24
North Carolina St.	MARYLAND	24-20	27-17
Iowa	MINNESOTA	30-13	34-10
Mississippi State	OLE MISS	33-25	34-24
North Carolina	DUKE	35-24	35-24
SYRACUSE	Boston College	16-14	19-17
OHIO STATE	Michigan	37-17	38-24
OKLAHOMA STATE	Oklahoma	30-27	27-31
Michigan State	PENN STATE	30-27	20-23
South Carolina	CLEMSON	35-30	36-20
VANDERBILT	Wake Forest	23-17	20-23
RICE	U a b	35-35 to ot	38-36
Kansas State	NORTH TEXAS	41-21	45-24
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	35-9	31-14
WISCONSIN	Northwestern	45-24	45-24
FLORIDA INT’L	Arkansas State	34-27	34-27
MIAMI (FL)	South Florida	30-17	30-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Atlantic	27-26	24-23
UL-MONROE	UL-Lafayette	35-27	35-21
PURDUE	Indiana	38-31	37-28
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	34-31	35-30
TEXAS TECH	Houston	41-32	41-28
TROY	Western Kentucky	40-28	35-31
Central Florida	MEMPHIS	42-14	47-10
MARSHALL	Tulane	35-28	32-31
Missouri	Kansas (Kansas City)	41-17	31-13
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO STATE	45-17	44-17
UTAH	B y u	37-24	28-24
T c u	NEW MEXICO	50-7	56-0
SAN DIEGO STATE	U n l v	44-24	44-20
Louisiana Tech	SAN JOSE STATE	27-16	28-16
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	34-27	28-25
FRESNO STATE	Idaho	38-30	38-26

 

 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	[Temple 9-3]	WAC (#3?)	[Army 6-6]
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Toledo 9-3	WAC #(1) or 2	Fresno St. 7-5
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	S M U 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	Connecticut 7-5	C-USA #4-6	East Carolina 7-5
MAACO	MWC #1	Utah 10-2	Pac 10 #5	[Kentucky 6-6]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	San Diego St. 8-4	Navy or WAC	NAVY 9-3
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	HAWAII 10-3	C-USA #2-6	Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Boston Coll. 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports	Big East #2	West Va. 8-4	ACC #3	Miami 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 7-5
Military	ACC #8	Georgia Tech 6-6	C-USA #6	U T E P 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Northwestern 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Nebraska 10-3	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	Southern Miss 8-4	MWC #3-5/Army	Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 8-4	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Maryland 7-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	California 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	N. Carolina 7-5	Big East #3-4	S. Florida 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	N.C. State 9-4	Pac 10 #4	[Notre Dame 6-6]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Florida 7-5	C-USA #1	Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	L S U 10-2	ACC #2	Florida St. 9-3
Ticket City	Big 10 #6-7	Illinois 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 8-4
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Mich. St. 11-1	SEC #2	Alabama 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Penn State 7-5	SEC #6	Miss. State 8-4
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford 11-1	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 11-2	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh 8-4
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	T C U 12-0
Sugar	BCS SEC	Auburn 12-1	BCS At-Large	Ohio State 11-1
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 6-6	MAC #1 or 2	Ohio U 9-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Okla. St. 10-2	SEC #3-6 W	Arkansas 10-2
BBVA Compass	Big East #5	Louisville 6-6	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Miami (O) 7-5]	WAC #1	Nevada 11-2
Nat’l Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Oregon 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Boise State 12-0

 

All CAPS and Italics—Team has already accepted bid to this bowl

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large entries.

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 16-20, 2010

Another Great Week Versus Spread

2010 is proving to be a season to remember for picking games against the spread.  The mediocrity in the middle has made picking games much easier when using 10-point and 13-point Sweetheart Teasers.

 

As we informed our subscription customers before we sent out our picks for the week, we will be playing fewer games per week now that a winning season has been guaranteed. 

 

Our most recent picks went 4-1, bringing our total for the season to 60-24-3 for 71.4%.  We have been happy and pleased with our ability to average about 60% success over the course of time, so this is definitely an anomaly.  Let’s look at how the picks played out:

 

1. 10-point Teaser:

Boise State -24 ½ vs. Idaho, West Virginia +5 vs. Cincinnati, and Syracuse + 7 ½ vs. Rutgers

WON

 

We had Boise State picked to win by 40 points, and we were not the least bit worried about the Broncos covering at 24 and a hook.  The other two picks in the parlay let us play what we thought were solid favorites now getting points.  We figured that both Cincinnati and Rutgers would lose by more than a touchdown.

 

2. 13-point Teaser:

Northwestern +22 ½ vs. Iowa, Michigan Pk vs. Purdue, Indiana +34 ½ vs. Wisconsin, and Minnesota +33 ½ vs. Illinois

Lost

 

We really liked this Big Ten parlay.  We figured Northwestern would keep the game close against Iowa and lose by a touchdown or less, so when they upset the Hawkeyes, we were happy.  We figured that Michigan was 10-14 points better than Purdue, and even though Denard Robinson had a weak game, the Wolverines prevailed by 11.  We never figured that Indiana would lose by 63 to Wisconsin.  We had predicted the Badgers to win by three touchdowns, so this one lost it for us.  We called for Minnesota to battle Illinois to the wire and have a shot at the upset.  We were right, but it did not matter.  It may matter for Ron Zook.  Losses to Northwestern and Fresno State will send him to the unemployment line.

 

3. 13-point Teaser:

Oklahoma -2 vs. Texas Tech, Texas A&M +10 ½ vs. Baylor, Kansas +48 vs. Nebraska, and Colorado +11 vs. Iowa State

WON

 

We loved this Big 12-themed parlay.  We called for Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech by at least 20 points, and the Sooners put an exclamation point on the deLeaching of the Red Raiders.  We stated that it was our opinion that Texas A&M was still not getting enough respect and figured they would beat Baylor outright.  We believed that Nebraska would slaughter Kansas but by more like 35 and not 48 points.  When the Cornhuskers only won by 17, we were winners in this parlay.  As for Colorado, the Buffalos were two-point picks over Iowa State, and they were playing for deposed coach Dan Hawkins.  Getting 11 points was more than we could have hoped for, and CU won outright.

 

4. 10-point Teaser

Tennessee Titans & Miami Dolphins Over 33, Detroit Lions & Buffalo Bills Under 54, and Cincinnati Bengals & Indianapolis Colts Under 57

WON

 

This totals parlay of pro teams was our strategy pick of the week.  We figured that with Randy Moss added to a lineup that was already scoring close to 28 points per game, and with the Titans having problems stopping the running game, both teams would top 21 points.  Miami controlled the game after the first quarter, and more than enough points were scored.  The Lions-Bills pick was more due to climate forecast.  Heavy snow was in the forecast, and we figured the colder weather would make this a defensive struggle.  As for the Bengals-Colts game, we did not think Cincinnati could score 17 points in this game, and we did not see Indy getting to 40.  It was much closer than we thought it would be.

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals Over 31 ½, Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants Under 55 ½, and St. Louis Rams & San Francisco 49ers Over 28

WON

 

We called for the Seattle-Arizona game to be a shootout with little defense, and we were surprised with the ease in which Seattle won.  Still, this was an easy cover.  We must admit that we blew the Giants-Cowboys game.  We figured New York would win by 21 points, but we were okay because this game narrowly covered when Dallas reacted to Jason Garrett’s coaching.  We played the Rams-49ers game thinking that both teams would top 14 points and were happy to see both do exactly that.

 

Coaching Carousel

At this point in the season, we already know there are openings at Colorado and Minnesota.  It looks like there will be an openings at New Mexico and Vanderbilt, and there will be others that will become available in the next three weeks.  Here are the candidates we hear are in the mix for these jobs:

 

1. New Mexico—The Lobos were not happy with minor bowl appearances almost every season under Rocky Long.  They ended up with back-to-back double digit loss seasons with Mike Locksley.  Mike Leach has been rumored here for a month, but we believe Leach will spend one more season out of the mix before somebody is brave enough to approach him.  We believe that this job will go to a coordinator at the college level.  It is not a glamour job.  Basketball is king in Albuquerque.

 

2. Colorado—Several names have been mentioned in this search, including former coach Bill McCartney, former Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, Georgia coach Mark Richt, and Nebraska offensive coordinator Shawn Watson.  LSU coach Les Miles has been rumored by the Denver Post.  We believe that McCartney may have a legitimate chance to get back into coaching after having retired 17 years ago.  Dick Vermeil proved you can take off 17 years and come back to the game.  Bill Snyder has proved you can come back at age 70 and win.

 

3. Minnesota—San Diego State’s Brady Hoke and Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen, Miami coach Randy Shannon,  former coaches Phil Fulmer and Mark Mangino are on the radar in Minneapolis.  The Gophers are pleased with Tubby Smith on the hardwoods, and it could be that another former SEC coach joins him in the great white north.  We think Fulmer could be the leading candidate. 

 

4. Vanderbilt—It is becoming apparent that Robbie Caldwell will indeed be a one-season stopgap.  However, this school does not have much to offer a big-time coach.  Gary Barnett and Tyrone Willingham turned this job down the last time it was available.  The Commodores just don’t have what it takes to entice a big-time coach to commit coaching suicide here.  We believe that a head coach from the Football Championship Series will get this job if it becomes available.  James Madison coach Mickey Matthews is apparently on the radar.  Miami offensive coordinator Mark Whipple could emerge as a candidate in this job as well.  Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo could be a dark horse candidate, but the spread option may not be a great choice for the SEC.  SEC linebackers and defensive backs can make enough big plays to grind the option to a halt when it is the lone weapon.  That is why no teams use it today.

 

The PiRate Ratings

Once again, there is a change at the top.  Oregon lost to Cal in every regard except the final score.  Who ever heard of a false start on a placekicker?  Then, he misses a 29-yarder.  We believe Boise State would beat Cal by 21-28 points if the Broncos had played them.  So, Boise State is our new number one. 

 

Remember, our ratings look forward and not backward like the polls.  When you see a team ranked in our top 25 but with a losing record, it is because we believe that is where they belong in the mix for the next week’s games.  Georgia is 5-6, but we still have them as one of our top 25.  That is because they are only 12 points weaker than Alabama and Auburn on a neutral field.

 

Overall, except for the top five or six teams, this is the weakest college football season since 1984.  That year, Brigham Young won the national championship.  Could it be “the year” for Boise State or TCU?

 

NCAA Top 25 November 15, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Boise State	133.4	9	0
2	T C U	132.9	11	0
3	Oregon	132.1	10	0
4	Ohio State	126.8	9	1
5	Stanford	126.7	9	1
6	Alabama	126.5	8	2
7	Auburn	126.2	11	0
8	Oklahoma	125.8	8	2
9	Arkansas	125.3	8	2
10	Virginia Tech	122.4	8	2
11	Wisconsin	121.6	9	1
12	South Carolina	120.4	7	3
13	Nebraska	119.5	9	1
14	Miami (Fla)	118.9	7	3
15	L S U	118.8	9	1
16	Florida State	118.5	7	3
17	Texas A&M	118.1	7	3
18	Iowa	117.6	7	3
19	North Carolina	116.5	6	4
20	Arizona	116.1	7	3
21	Florida	116.0	6	4
22	Southern Cal	115.5	7	3
23	Georgia	115.5	5	6
24	Missouri	115.4	8	2
25	Oklahoma State	115.3	9	1
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	5-2	7-3	118.5
Clemson	3-4	5-5	112.5
North Carolina State	4-2	7-3	110.5
Boston College	3-4	5-5	104.7
Maryland	4-2	7-3	104.4
Wake Forest	1-6	2-8	90.2
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	6-0	8-2	122.4
Miami-FL	5-2	7-3	118.9
North Carolina	3-3	6-4	116.5
Georgia Tech	3-4	5-5	109.1
Duke	1-5	3-7	94.7
Virginia	1-5	4-6	94.5

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	2-2	6-3	114.0
Pittsburgh	3-1	5-4	110.4
Connecticut	2-2	5-4	105.3
South Florida	3-2	6-3	104.9
Louisville	2-3	5-5	103.3
Syracuse	4-2	7-3	102.2
Cincinnati	1-3	3-6	101.7
Rutgers	1-3	4-5	93.4

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	5-1	9-1	126.8
Wisconsin	5-1	9-1	121.6
Iowa	4-2	7-3	117.6
Michigan State	5-1	9-1	111.5
Michigan	3-3	7-3	107.6
Penn State	3-3	6-4	105.4
Illinois	3-4	5-5	104.1
Northwestern	3-3	7-3	96.9
Minnesota	1-6	2-9	94.0
Purdue	2-4	4-6	91.2
Indiana	0-6	4-6	88.4

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-1	9-1	119.5
Missouri	4-2	8-2	115.4
Kansas State	3-4	6-4	101.6
Colorado	1-5	4-6	99.4
Iowa State	3-4	5-6	94.4
Kansas	1-5	3-7	89.6
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	4-2	8-2	125.8
Texas A&M	4-2	7-3	118.1
Oklahoma State	5-1	9-1	115.3
Baylor	4-3	7-4	106.5
Texas	2-5	4-6	105.7
Texas Tech	3-5	5-5	103.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	5-1	7-3	102.3
Southern Mississippi	4-2	7-3	96.9
East Carolina	5-1	6-4	93.7
U A B	2-4	3-7	87.0
Marshall	3-3	4-6	84.2
Memphis	0-6	1-9	68.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	4-2	7-3	98.7
Houston	4-3	5-5	98.2
S M U	4-2	5-5	91.6
U T E P	3-4	6-5	85.4
Rice	1-5	2-8	80.5
Tulane	2-4	4-6	78.3

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		5-5	106.2
Navy		7-3	103.0
Army		6-4	89.0

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-1	8-2	96.5
Ohio U	5-1	7-3	90.4
Miami (O)	5-1	6-4	86.4
Kent St.	3-3	4-6	84.2
Bowling Green	1-5	2-8	77.7
Buffalo	1-5	2-8	73.1
Akron	0-6	0-10	65.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	6-0	8-2	101.6
Toledo	5-1	6-4	87.9
Central Michigan	2-5	3-8	84.5
Western Michigan	3-3	4-6	83.1
Ball State	3-4	4-7	76.2
Eastern Michigan	1-5	1-9	68.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	132.9
Utah	5-1	8-2	112.3
Air Force	4-3	7-4	106.3
B Y U	4-2	5-5	103.9
S. D. State	4-2	7-3	101.8
UNLV	2-4	2-8	85.0
Colo. State	2-5	3-8	84.6
Wyoming	0-7	2-9	84.2
New Mexico	1-5	1-9	75.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-0	10-0	132.1
Stanford	6-1	9-1	126.7
Arizona	4-3	7-3	116.1
Southern Cal	4-3	7-3	115.5
California	3-4	5-5	113.2
Oregon St.	3-3	4-5	109.7
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	109.2
U C L A	2-4	4-5	106.1
Washington	2-4	3-6	103.5
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	7-3	120.4
Florida	4-4	6-4	116.0
Georgia	3-5	5-6	115.5
Kentucky	2-5	6-5	106.9
Tennessee	1-5	4-6	105.2
Vanderbilt	1-6	2-8	88.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-2	8-2	126.5
Auburn	7-0	11-0	126.2
Arkansas	4-2	8-2	125.3
L S U	5-1	9-1	118.8
Mississippi State	3-3	7-3	113.9
Ole Miss	1-5	4-6	100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	4-1	4-5	86.6
Arkansas State	4-3	4-6	83.8
Troy	4-2	5-4	82.9
North Texas	3-4	3-7	80.2
Middle Tennessee	2-3	3-6	80.2
Florida Atlantic	3-3	4-5	78.5
U. of Louisiana	2-4	2-8	78.3
Louisiana-Monroe	3-3	4-6	77.7
Western Kentucky	2-4	2-8	75.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	5-0	9-0	133.4
Nevada	4-1	9-1	110.3
Hawaii	5-1	7-3	104.9
Fresno State	4-2	6-3	98.9
Louisiana Tech	3-3	4-6	94.0
Utah State	2-4	4-6	89.5
Idaho	1-4	4-6	85.8
San Jose State	0-5	1-9	78.2
New Mexico State	1-5	2-8	73.5

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 16
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
TEMPLE	Ohio U	9.1	31-22
Wednesday, November 17
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Miami (O)	AKRON	19.2	31-12
TOLEDO	Bowling Green	12.7	37-24
Thursday, November 18
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
WASHINGTON	U c l a	0.4	28-28 to ot
Air Force	U N L V	18.3	35-17
Friday, November 19
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
BOISE STATE	Fresno State	38.0	55-17
Saturday, November 20
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
COLORADO	Kansas State	0.8	27-26
Pittsburgh	SOUTH FLORIDA	2.5	27-24
GEORGIA TECH	Duke	17.4	44-27
Missouri	IOWA STATE	18.0	38-20
Penn State	Indiana    (Landover, MD)	18.5	33-14
West Virginia	LOUISVILLE	7.7	28-20
Middle Tennessee	WESTERN KY.	1.8	33-31
BOSTON COLLEGE	Virginia	13.2	27-14
Florida State	MARYLAND	11.1	31-20
MICHIGAN STATE	Purdue	23.3	40-17
Wisconsin	MICHIGAN	11.0	38-27
NORTH CAROLINA	N. Carolina State	8.5	28-19
Clemson	WAKE FOREST	19.8	34-14
Connecticut	SYRACUSE	0.1	20-20 to ot
TULSA	U t e p	16.3	38-22
Tennessee	VANDERBILT	14.5	35-20
Oklahoma	BAYLOR	16.3	37-21
East Carolina	RICE	10.2	41-31
TEXAS A&M	Nebraska	1.6	26-24
TEXAS	Florida Atlantic	30.2	37-7
Florida Int’l	LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE	5.3	31-26
Arkansas	MISSISSIPPI STATE	8.4	38-30
CINCINNATI	Rutgers	11.3	35-24
Ohio State	IOWA	6.2	24-18
Oklahoma State	KANSAS	22.7	33-10
Virginia Tech	MIAMI-FL	0.5	25-24
LOUISIANA-MONROE	North Texas	0.0	30-30 to ot
SOUTH CAROLINA	Troy	40.5	55-14
Illinois	N’western (Wrigley Field)	6.2	34-28
Northern Illinois	BALL STATE	22.4	38-16
BUFFALO	Eastern Michigan	7.8	35-27
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Kent State	1.9	33-31
WYOMING	Colorado State	2.6	31-28
UTAH STATE	Idaho	6.7	38-31
S M U	Marshall	10.4	34-24
Stanford	CALIFORNIA	11.5	28-16
NAVY	Arkansas State	22.2	49-27
Central Florida	TULANE	21.0	38-17
U A B	Memphis	21.1	40-19
NEVADA	New Mexico State	39.8	47-7
B Y U	New Mexico	31.2	41-10
Notre Dame	Army  (Yankee Stadium)	17.2	27-10
SOUTHERN MISS	Houston	1.7	33-31
L S U	Ole Miss	21.7	35-13
Southern Cal	OREGON STATE	2.8	30-27
Utah	SAN DIEGO STATE	7.5	38-30
HAWAII	San Jose State	30.2	47-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 16
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
TEMPLE	Ohio U	31-21	26-24
Wednesday, November 17
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
Miami (O)	AKRON	34-21	27-13
TOLEDO	Bowling Green	40-28	38-20
Thursday, November 18
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
U c l a	WASHINGTON	30-30 to ot	27-24
Air Force	U N L V	35-17	35-14
Friday, November 19
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
BOISE STATE	Fresno State	47-20	48-17
Saturday, November 20
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
Kansas State	COLORADO	28-23	23-26
Pittsburgh	SOUTH FLORIDA	24-21	20-26
GEORGIA TECH	Duke	38-28	37-28
Missouri	IOWA STATE	35-24	34-17
Penn State	Indiana    (Landover, MD)	27-14	41-17
West Virginia	LOUISVILLE	24-21	20-21
WESTERN KY.	Middle Tennessee	30-27	31-28
BOSTON COLLEGE	Virginia	25-16	24-17
Florida State	MARYLAND	27-24	23-26
MICHIGAN STATE	Purdue	38-16	37-16
Wisconsin	MICHIGAN	38-31	44-31
NORTH CAROLINA	N. Carolina State	25-24	24-21
Clemson	WAKE FOREST	35-21	38-17
SYRACUSE	Connecticut	20-14	20-16
TULSA	U t e p	41-24	45-28
Tennessee	VANDERBILT	28-20	41-13
Oklahoma	BAYLOR	38-30	42-24
East Carolina	RICE	47-35	52-21
Nebraska	TEXAS A&M	31-30	24-30
TEXAS	Florida Atlantic	28-9	31-20
Florida Int’l	LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE	38-30	41-23
Arkansas	MISSISSIPPI STATE	31-27	35-20
CINCINNATI	Rutgers	28-24	28-27
Ohio State	IOWA	26-23	30-20
Oklahoma State	KANSAS	40-17	45-13
Virginia Tech	MIAMI-FL	27-27 to ot	24-20
LOUISIANA-MONROE	North Texas	34-31	35-33
SOUTH CAROLINA	Troy	40-14	45-20
Northwestern	Illinois  (Wrigley Field)	28-27	35-31
Northern Illinois	BALL STATE	44-24	48 -16
BUFFALO	Eastern Michigan	34-27	34-30
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Kent State	30-27	31-27
WYOMING	Colorado St.	28-27	21-27
UTAH STATE	Idaho	34-32	40-30
S M U	Marshall	35-26	35-28
Stanford	CALIFORNIA	28-19	27-20
NAVY	Arkansas State	41-24	42-24
Central Florida	TULANE	38-24	38-24
U A B	Memphis	45-28	44-24
NEVADA	New Mexico State	52-16	51-17
B Y U	New Mexico	34-7	47-17
Notre Dame	Army  (Yankee Stadium)	26-17	28-17
SOUTHERN MISS	Houston	37-31	37-32
L S U	Ole Miss	35-13	27-10
Southern Cal	OREGON STATE	31-26	38-20
Utah	SAN DIEGO STATE	34-30	31-34
HAWAII	San Jose State	49-20	56-17

 

 

Looking At The Bowls

Pity the bowls with Pac-10 tie-ins.  It looks like Oregon will play in the National Championship Game, and Stanford could easily earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid.  Only Arizona and California could be eligible for all the remaining bowls.  Southern Cal is not eligible, and it looks like a strong possibility that Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington will not become bowl eligible.

 

The Big Ten could be looking at two BCS bowl teams, so they could come up one team shy in meeting its bowl obligations.

 

The Mid-American Conference will have five bowl eligible teams with seven or more wins, so expect the MAC to get two extra bids as at-large teams.

 

Army needs one win to virtually guarantee the Black Knights a bowl bid.

 

The SEC could find itself with just one BCS bowl member if Arkansas beats LSU.  If Georgia beats Georgia Tech and Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky, 10 teams could be available for nine bowl spots.  Expect a 6-6 Kentucky team to become the top at-large candidate from among the 6-6 teams.

 

We believe the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conference could produce one extra bowl eligible team than they have spots available, so those two teams would become very attractive.

 

[Teams in brackets are at-large selections]
Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	[Connecticut 6-6]	WAC (#3?)	[Miami (O) 8-5]
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Toledo 8-4	WAC #(1) or 2	Nevada 10-2
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	SMU 6-6
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Pittsburgh 7-5	C-USA #4-6	Sou. Miss 8-4
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Utah 9-3	Pac 10 #5	[Temple 9-3]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	S. Diego St. 9-3	Navy or WAC	Navy 8-4
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	Hawaii 10-3	C-USA #2-6	Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Boston Coll. 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	S. Florida 8-4	ACC #3	Florida St. 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Northwestern 8-4
Military	ACC #8	Georgia Tech 6-6	C-USA #6	E. Carolina 8-4
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Illinois 6-6
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Oklahoma 9-3	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	UTEP 6-6	MWC #3-5/Army	BYU 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Notre Dame 6-6	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	N. C. State 8-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	California 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	Maryland 8-4	Big East #3-4	West Va. 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	Miami (F) 8-4	Pac 10 #4	[Kentucky 6-6]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Florida 7-5	C-USA #1	Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	Arkansas 10-2	ACC #2	N. Carolina 8-4
Dallas Football Classic	Big 10 #6-7	Michigan 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St.7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Penn St. 8-4
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Mich. St. 10-2	SEC #2	Alabama 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Iowa 8-4	SEC #6	Miss. St. 8-4
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford 11-1	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma St. 12-1	BCS At-Large	Syracuse 9-3
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	TCU 12-0
Sugar	BCS SEC	Auburn 12-1	BCS At-Large	Ohio St. 11-1
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 6-6	MAC #1 or 2	Ohio U 8-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska 10-3	SEC #3-6 W	LSU 10-2
Birmingham	Big East #5	Louisville 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Army 7-5]	WAC #1	Fresno St. 7-5
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Oregon 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Boise St. 12-0

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 9-13, 2010

We’re In The Money

2010 has been a banner year for the PiRate Rankings.  Our picks against the spread for our customers have been hitting at better than 66.7% all year, but still we were in total shock when this past weekend’s games brought us an incredible 9-1-1 record.  For the year, our record moves to 56-23-3 for an incredible 70.9%.

 

It’s always nice to hear from you if you purchased our picks for the season back in August.  Why have we been so successful this year?  We believe it is the incredible parity in the NFL and a great deal of mediocrity in the NCAA.  So many of the NFL games have been close, and so many of the college teams after the top four or five are weaker than in past years.  So, when you play a 13-point teaser, it is like having gold in your hands if you know a little about numbers and football percentages.  Let’s take a look at our picks from this past weekend.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

Air Force +6 vs. Army, Miami (Fl) +5 ½ vs. Maryland, Texas A&M +16 ½ vs. Oklahoma, and Kansas State +16 ½ vs. Texas

WON

We had Air Force rated as a solid favorite over Army.  The Black Knights are enjoying their best season in years, but they do not have enough offense to face a potent Air Force team.  We figured the Falcons would win by 10-12 points, and even that was an understatement.

 

We felt that Miami had about a 65% chance of beating Maryland outright, so getting 5 ½ made us feel like it was a 95% chance of covering.  Our statement to our subscribers was, “Maryland’s record is too deceiving.  They could drop four in a row to finish 6-6.”

 

We are not about to tell you that we called for A&M to beat Oklahoma by two touchdowns, but we told our subscribers that, “Oklahoma cannot win this game by more than 10 points.”

 

As for the Kansas State-Texas game, we did call for KSU to win outright.  Getting 16 ½ points was pure gravy.

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Nevada +2 vs. Idaho, California -1 vs. Washington State, Stanford +4 vs. Arizona, and TCU +8 ½ vs. Utah

WON

We went with four clear favorites over four weaker opponents and got points in three of the four plays in the parlay.  We felt that all four would win by double digits, and even though Cal only won by seven, we easily won this teaser.

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Indiana +27 vs. Iowa, Michigan +6 ½ vs. Illinois, Wisconsin -10 vs. Purdue, and Arkansas +14 vs. South Carolina

WON

We were wrong in predicting how the Iowa-Indiana game would turn out, but it still won for us.  We expected a 35-24 type game and not the low scoring affair that happened.  As for Michigan-Illinois, we had to sweat this out for a while.  We expected the shootout, but we thought Michigan would win 42-31.  Tate Forcier pulled this one out for us.  He has to be the best number two QB in the nation.  Wisconsin needed to go well into the 3^rd quarter before taking over this game, but they won by the same 21 points we predicted.  We called for Arkansas to outscore South Carolina.  We were looking for a 35-31 win, so the 21-point blowout was just fine for us.

 

4. Florida -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

We consider ourselves experts in the plight of poor Vanderbilt, as our founder grew up watching them play week after week.  He told us that Vanderbilt would be down 35 points by halftime, and he was off by six.  It was 41-0!

 

5. Louisiana Tech Pk vs. Fresno State

Loss

This is the one game we lost, and we thought it was one of our strongest plays of the week.  This is one of Fresno’s weaker teams in this run of winning years.  Thinking that a long trip to the Deep South might be a little too much, we went with Tech to win and missed it.

 

6. Tennessee -20 ½ vs. Memphis

WON

Again, we deferred to our founder and relied on his information in the Volunteer State.  He believed that Tennessee was better than an average C-USA team, and the average C-USA team was more than three touchdowns better than Memphis.  He also told us that Tennessee is 10-points better in November than in any other month.  That was good enough for us.

 

7. Buffalo Bills +3 vs. Chicago Bears

Push (Tie)

The Bears edged the Bills by a field goal to make this game a push.  We felt that Buffalo would break through for its first win playing on foreign soil.

 

8. Buffalo Bills & Chicago Bears OVER 40 ½

WON

We won the other part of this game by predicting it to be a 28-24 final.  The 41 points was a razor thin margin to win by, but we have lost our share of games by a point or half-point in the past, and those still counted as losses.

 

9. Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. Minnesota Vikings

WON

With the Vikings full of dissension, and Brett Favre tossing more interceptions than touchdowns, we thought the Minnesota defense would give up too many points, even to the lowly Cardinals.  Favre had a great day, but he tossed two interceptions.  The game stayed close, and Arizona almost won it outright.

 

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Atlanta Falcons OVER 44 ½

WON

We called this game almost exactly correct.  We called for the Falcons to win 28-24, but even though the actual final was a bit lower, it covered the total.

 

11. Green Bay Packers -7 ½ vs. Dallas Cowboys

WON

This was a gift from the odds makers.  Dallas is as weak as Carolina, but the public perception is that they are not.  Without Tony Romo, the spread should have been 13 ½ or even more. 

 

A New Number One

The PiRate Rankings have a new number one team.  TCU vaulted to first place after beating an undefeated Top 10 team on the road by 40 points.  This was a Utah team that proved it could beat Iowa State in Ames by several touchdowns more than Nebraska was able to do.

 

The Horned Frogs, unlike Auburn and Oregon, are equally strong on both offense and defense.  Boise State is proving to be the same.  We believe that both TCU and Boise State would defeat Oregon and Auburn in a national semifinal if there were playoffs.  The two non-automatic qualifiers are the two best teams in the land, even if our own PiRate Ratings has Oregon rated a little above Boise State.

 

The current BCS is just not acceptable as a real method of choosing the two best teams.  The two best teams should be the two teams playing the best.  Oregon and Auburn are both one half of a real juggernaut.  Neither has a championship defense.  Boise State and TCU have both a championship offense and defense.

 

What else do the MWC and WAC undefeated teams have to prove?  Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, and Utah massacred Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when they were given the chance.  Previously, Utah won its other BCS Bowl game in the 2004 season.

 

Here is where the BCS is flawed.  You have heard us say this before.  If you took the entire First and Second Team All-American squads and put them in a San Jose State uniform, and the Spartans went 12-0, they would not get the chance to play for the National Championship, even though it would be clear that they were 21 points better than any other team.  The National Championship Game should have the two best teams, or it is bogus.

 

The NCAA elite do not want to include the TCU’s and Boise State’s.  It is a corrupt system, and the PiRates are all about waging war against elitist corruption.  Wait until you see what we dictate for the bowls.  It is the only way to end this primitive system for selecting a national champion.

 

NCAA Top 25 November 8, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	134.5	9	0
2	Oregon	134.3	9	0
3	Boise State	132.2	8	0
4	Stanford	127.5	8	1
5	Ohio State	125.8	8	1
6t	Arkansas	125.8	7	2
6t	Alabama	125.8	7	2
8	Auburn	125.1	10	0
9	Oklahoma	123.2	7	2
10	Iowa	121.1	7	2
11	Virginia Tech	120.9	7	2
12	Nebraska	120.3	8	1
13	Florida State	119.1	6	3
14	Florida	119.0	6	3
15	Wisconsin	118.6	8	1
16	L S U	117.0	8	1
17	Arizona	117.6	7	2
18	North Carolina	117.5	6	3
19	Texas A&M	116.8	6	3
20	South Carolina	116.8	6	3
21	Georgia	116.6	5	5
22	Utah	116.0	8	1
23	Miami (Fla)	115.9	6	3
24	Missouri	115.9	7	2
25	Oregon State	115.5	4	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	4-2	6-3	119.1
Clemson	3-3	5-4	111.9
North Carolina State	3-2	6-3	107.9
Boston College	2-4	4-5	105.0
Maryland	3-2	6-3	102.3
Wake Forest	1-5	2-7	93.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	5-0	7-2	120.9
North Carolina	3-2	6-3	117.5
Miami-FL	4-2	6-3	115.9
Georgia Tech	3-3	5-4	112.6
Virginia	1-4	4-5	96.1
Duke	1-4	3-6	94.4

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	3-0	5-3	111.5
West Virginia	1-2	5-3	111.5
Cincinnati	1-2	3-5	105.0
Connecticut	1-2	4-4	104.2
Louisville	2-2	5-4	104.0
South Florida	2-2	5-3	103.7
Syracuse	3-2	6-3	101.2
Rutgers	1-2	4-4	93.9

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	4-1	8-1	125.8
Iowa	4-1	7-2	121.1
Wisconsin	4-1	8-1	118.6
Michigan State	5-1	9-1	111.5
Michigan	2-3	6-3	106.7
Penn State	3-2	6-3	106.1
Illinois	3-3	5-4	106.1
Northwestern	2-3	6-3	95.9
Indiana	0-5	4-5	92.2
Purdue	2-3	4-5	91.6
Minnesota	0-6	1-9	91.5

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	4-1	8-1	120.3
Missouri	3-2	7-2	115.9
Kansas State	3-3	6-3	101.1
Colorado	0-5	3-6	97.8
Iowa State	3-3	5-5	96.0
Kansas	1-4	3-6	88.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	3-2	7-2	123.2
Texas A&M	3-2	6-3	116.8
Oklahoma State	4-1	8-1	112.8
Texas	2-4	4-5	108.7
Baylor	4-2	7-3	107.8
Texas Tech	3-4	5-4	105.5

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	5-0	7-2	104.7
Southern Mississippi	3-2	6-3	94.5
East Carolina	4-1	5-4	93.0
U A B	2-3	3-6	87.7
Marshall	2-3	3-6	84.5
Memphis	0-5	1-8	68.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-2	5-4	99.4
Tulsa	3-2	6-3	98.0
S M U	4-2	5-5	91.6
U T E P	3-4	6-4	84.4
Rice	1-4	2-7	80.8
Tulane	1-4	3-6	77.7

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Navy		6-3	105.4
Notre Dame		4-5	103.5
Army		5-4	88.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-1	8-2	96.5
Ohio U	5-1	7-3	90.4
Miami (O)	4-1	5-4	86.5
Kent St.	3-3	4-5	85.0
Bowling Green	1-4	2-7	77.6
Buffalo	1-4	2-7	76.4
Akron	0-6	0-10	65.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	5-0	7-2	98.6
Toledo	5-0	6-3	88.2
Western Michigan	2-3	3-6	83.7
Central Michigan	2-5	3-7	81.6
Ball State	2-4	3-7	73.9
Eastern Michigan	1-4	1-8	67.7

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	6-0	10-0	134.5
Utah	5-1	8-1	116.0
Air Force	3-3	6-4	106.8
B Y U	3-2	4-5	99.6
S. D. State	4-1	7-2	99.2
Colo. State	2-4	3-7	87.9
Wyoming	0-6	2-8	87.7
UNLV	1-4	1-8	81.5
New Mexico	1-4	1-8	74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	6-0	9-0	134.3
Stanford	5-1	8-1	127.5
Arizona	4-2	7-2	117.6
Oregon St.	3-2	4-4	115.5
Southern Cal	3-3	6-3	114.0
California	3-3	5-4	110.7
Arizona St.	2-4	4-5	107.9
U C L A	2-4	4-5	106.1
Washington	2-4	3-6	103.5
Washington State	0-7	1-9	90.6

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida	4-3	6-3	119.0
South Carolina	4-3	6-3	116.8
Georgia	3-4	5-5	116.6
Kentucky	1-5	5-5	106.7
Tennessee	0-5	3-6	101.2
Vanderbilt	1-5	2-7	88.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Arkansas	4-2	7-2	125.8
Alabama	4-2	7-2	125.8
Auburn	6-0	10-0	125.1
L S U	5-1	8-1	117.7
Mississippi State	3-2	7-2	114.6
Ole Miss	1-4	4-5	102.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	4-1	5-3	87.4
Arkansas State	4-2	4-5	85.6
Florida International	3-1	3-5	83.1
Middle Tennessee	2-2	3-5	82.4
Louisiana-Monroe	3-3	4-5	78.8
Florida Atlantic	2-3	3-5	78.7
U. of Louisiana	2-3	2-7	78.1
North Texas	2-4	2-7	78.0
Western Kentucky	1-4	1-8	73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	4-0	8-0	132.2
Nevada	3-1	8-1	111.3
Hawaii	5-1	7-3	104.9
Fresno State	4-1	6-2	97.9
Louisiana Tech	2-3	3-6	93.4
Utah State	1-4	3-6	89.4
Idaho	1-3	4-5	87.0
San Jose State	0-4	1-8	78.3
New Mexico State	1-4	2-7	74.1

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 2
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Toledo	13.4	34-21
Wednesday, November 3
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Miami (O)	BOWLING GREEN	6.4	26-20
Thursday, November 4
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Pittsburgh	CONNECTICUT	4.3	24-20
East Carolina	U A B	2.3	35-33
Friday, November 5
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
BUFFALO	Ball State	5.5	23-17
Boise State	IDAHO	42.2	52-10
Saturday, November 6
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
AUBURN	Georgia	11.5	42-30
ARKANSAS	U t e p	44.9	62-17
Stanford	ARIZONA STATE	16.1	40-24
Oregon	CALIFORNIA	23.6	44-20
COLORADO	Iowa State	4.8	35-30
FLORIDA STATE	Clemson	10.2	34-24
FLORIDA	South Carolina	5.2	26-21
Miami (Fl)	GEORGIA TECH	0.3	27-27 to ot
Iowa	NORTHWESTERN	22.2	42-20
KENTUCKY	Vanderbilt	20.8	38-17
LOUISVILLE	South Florida	3.3	24-21
MISSOURI	Kansas State	17.8	35-17
Boston College	DUKE	7.6	31-23
N. C. STATE	Wake Forest	17.1	35-18
Virginia Tech	NORTH CAROLINA	0.4	20-20 to ot
NEBRASKA	Kansas	34.5	45-10
Syracuse	RUTGERS	4.3	24-20
OHIO STATE	Penn State	22.7	33-10
OKLAHOMA	Texas Tech	20.7	48-27
OREGON STATE	Washington State	27.9	38-10
Texas A&M	BAYLOR	6.5	34-27
Oklahoma State	TEXAS	1.1	35-34
Maryland	VIRGINIA	3.2	27-24
WISCONSIN	Indiana	29.2	42-13
MARSHALL	Memphis	19.4	35-16
WEST VIRGINIA	Cincinnati	9.5	27-17
ALABAMA	Mississippi State	14.2	28-14
ILLINOIS	Minnesota	17.6	38-20
ARKANSAS STATE	Western Kentucky	14.8	42-27
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Louisiana-Lafayette	4.1	27-23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	North Texas	7.4	34-27
Michigan	PURDUE	12.1	38-26
TENNESSEE	Ole Miss	1.6	28-26
TROY	Florida Int’l	7.3	34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Southern Miss	13.2	41-28
B y u	COLORADO STATE	8.7	37-28
Army	KENT STATE	0.2	20-20 to ot
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Eastern Michigan	18.5	40-21
Utah	NOTRE DAME	8.5	40-31
NAVY	Central Michigan	26.8	47-20
Rice	TULANE	0.1	30-30 to ot
T C U	San Diego State	38.8	49-10
Louisiana Tech	NEW MEXICO STATE	16.3	28-12
AIR FORCE	New Mexico	35.1	45-10
ARIZONA	Southern Cal	6.6	31-24
Utah State	SAN JOSE STATE	8.6	37-28
L S U	Louisiana-Monroe	41.9	45-3
HOUSTON	Tulsa	4.4	42-38
Nevada	FRESNO STATE	10.4	41-31
Wyoming	U N L V	3.7	28-24

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 2
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Toledo	31-21	30-22
Wednesday, November 3
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
Miami (O)	BOWLING GREEN	28-28 to ot	34-13
Thursday, November 4
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	CONNECTICUT	24-16	23-17
East Carolina	U A B	38-34	38-33
Friday, November 5
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
BUFFALO	Ball State	26-21	27-12
Boise State	IDAHO	41-12	56-14
Saturday, November 6
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
AUBURN	Georgia	37-27	41-27
ARKANSAS	U t e p	49-20	52-17
Stanford	ARIZONA STATE	38-28	38-14
Oregon	CALIFORNIA	41-24	54-18
Iowa State	COLORADO	31-28	30-20
FLORIDA STATE	Clemson	28-20	22-20
FLORIDA	South Carolina	23-17	24-17
Miami (Fl)	GEORGIA TECH	31-27	24-28
Iowa	NORTHWESTERN	31-17	27-16
KENTUCKY	Vanderbilt	35-21	42-20
LOUISVILLE	South Florida	27-23	27-24
MISSOURI	Kansas State	33-24	35-24
Boston College	DUKE	29-26	20-23
N. C. STATE	Wake Forest	40-18	28-13
Virginia Tech	NORTH CAROLINA	27-24	28-24
NEBRASKA	Kansas	39-7	45-17
Syracuse	RUTGERS	28-26	26-27
OHIO STATE	Penn State	26-10	24-14
OKLAHOMA	Texas Tech	33-20	34-20
OREGON STATE	Washington State	35-10	31-10
Texas A&M	BAYLOR	34-32	35-31
Oklahoma State	TEXAS	33-24	38-22
Maryland	VIRGINIA	24-21	25-26
WISCONSIN	Indiana	40-17	38-21
MARSHALL	Memphis	37-21	37-19
WEST VIRGINIA	Cincinnati	24-17	28-17
ALABAMA	Mississippi State	23-10	20-10
ILLINOIS	Minnesota	34-10	34-20
ARKANSAS STATE	Western Kentucky	38-23	40-24
FLORIDA ATLANTIC	Louisiana-Lafayette	25-17	21-18
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	North Texas	35-30	33-27
Michigan	PURDUE	34-25	38-23
TENNESSEE	Ole Miss	28-26	31-26
TROY	Florida Int’l	34-26	34-24
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Southern Miss	35-23	35-26
B y u	COLORADO STATE	34-28	41-22
Army	KENT STATE	21-20	27-16
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Eastern Michigan	35-17	33-23
Utah	NOTRE DAME	34-24	34-21
NAVY	Central Michigan	44-24	44-20
TULANE	Rice	30-25	31-21
T C U	San Diego State	38-10	45-10
Louisiana Tech	NEW MEXICO STATE	23-10	25-19
AIR FORCE	New Mexico	35-3	34-13
ARIZONA	Southern Cal	31-26	30-23
Utah State	SAN JOSE STATE	34-30	38-28
L S U	Louisiana-Monroe	40-7	37-9
HOUSTON	Tulsa	38-38 to ot	45-41
Nevada	FRESNO STATE	38-30	40-30
Wyoming	U N L V	31-28	26-28

 

The Bowls

A lot of the bowls are going to be games with 7-5 and 6-6 mediocrity this year.  Unless it is your team playing, there will be no need to tune any of them in.  If the bowls were instead used to host playoff rounds, with 11 bowls being used for 12 teams, then the remaining bowls could then invite teams with eight and nine wins instead of six and seven.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen, but it is not what we think should happen.  If you ask us today, Boise State and TCU should meet for a third consecutive bowl season with the winner being declared National Champion.

 

Bowl	Conference	Prediction	Conference	Prediction
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	B Y U 6-6	WAC (#3?)	[Ohio U 8-4]
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Miami (O) 8-5	WAC #(1) or 2	Nevada 10-2
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Troy 7-5	C-USA #5	UTEP 6-6
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Connecticut 6-6	C-USA #4-6	Sou. Miss 7-5
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Utah 11-1	Pac 10 #5	Oregon St. 6-6
Poinsettia	MWC #2	San Diego St. 8-4	Navy or WAC	Navy 9-3
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	Hawaii 10-3	C-USA #2-6	E C U 8-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	Northwestern 6-6	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Georgia Tech 6-6	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	S. Florida 7-5	ACC #3	Florida St. 8-5
Insight	Big 12 #4	Oklahoma 9-3	Big 10 #4 or 5	Mich. St. 10-2
Military	ACC #8	Maryland 6-6	C-USA #6	S M U 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Illinois 8-4
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Missouri 10-2	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	Tulsa 8-4	MWC #3-5/Army	Army 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 7-5	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Miami (F) 7-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	U C L A 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	Clemson 7-5	Big East #3-4	West Va. 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	N.C. State 8-4	Pac 10 #4	California 6-6
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Kentucky 6-6	C-USA #1	Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	Miss. State 8-4	ACC #2	N. Carolina 8-4
Dallas Football Classic	Big 10 #6-7	Michigan 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	Florida 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 10-2
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Ohio St. 10-2	SEC #2	L S U 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Penn St. 8-4	SEC #6	S. Carolina 7-5
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford 11-1	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Nebraska 11-2	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh 7-5
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	Arkansas 10-2
Sugar	BCS SEC	[T C U 12-0]	BCS At-Large	Boise St. 12-0
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Florida Int’l 6-6	MAC #1 or 2	Toledo 8-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Oklahoma St. 11-2	SEC #3-6 W	Alabama 9-3
Birmingham	Big East #5	Louisville 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Temple 9-3]	WAC #1	Fresno St. 7-5
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Auburn 13-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Oregon 12-0

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 2-6, 2010

Ho-Hum Another Winning Weekend

 

Before we get too big of a swelled head and believe we can pick winners in our sleep, let us say that we were not pleased with this past weekend’s picks.  Yes, we had another winning week against the spread, but we have gotten to the point where 4-3 is not acceptable in this season of what looks like easy riches.  We went with underdogs in five picks and took the totals in two others.

 

Ralph Waldo Emerson said, “Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect.”  Lucky for us, we hope we can be called strong men, because we were prepared to go with 11 picks this week instead of seven.  Those four picks we did not make all lost.  For the season, our record against the spread is 47-22-2, dropping us to 68.1% against the spread.  Here is how it went:

 

1. St. Louis Rams +3 vs. Carolina Panthers

WON

 

We did not feel that one win over a week San Francisco team was the telltale sign that Carolina was on the verge of a major turnaround.  We liked Sam Bradford’s consistent improvement with experience, and we told you we believed the Rams would win outright.

 

2. Miami Dolphins +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

WON

 

As we stated in Thursday’s Email to our subscribers, we could not believe the Dolphins were not at least five-point favorites in this game.  If the odds makers continue to treat the Bengals like it was the first half of the 2009 season, then we won’t complain.

 

3. Buffalo Bills +7 ½ vs. Kansas City Chiefs

WON

 

Buffalo had a near miss against Baltimore, and we applauded their offensive changes.  We thought that with anything close to a repeat performance could give the Bills an upset win.  We loved the extra hook in the spread, and it became a solid pick.  When the game went to overtime, we were safe.

 

4. Tennessee Titans +4 vs. San Diego Chargers

Lost

 

We were hurt by two injuries in this game, one of them critical.  Kenny Britt went down early in the first quarter and was lost for the game.  Vince Young was off to a great start, and he ran out of weapons as the game wore on.  Then, he went down in the 4^th quarter.  With Kerry Collins in the game, the Chargers could bottle up Chris Johnson, and with no Britt, Collins had little left to pass deep.

 

5. Seattle Seahawks +2 ½ vs. Oakland Raiders

Lost

 

Break up the Raiders!  How did they get Daryle Lamonica, Ben Davidson, Fred Biletnikoff, Art Shell, and the rest of the 1967 team through the fountain of youth?  Who would have thought that the Chiefs and Raiders would be fighting it out once again for the West Division title?  We goofed big time on this one.

 

6. Green Bay Packers & New York Jets OVER 42

Lost

 

Talk about blowing one big time, this game produced no touchdowns.  We thought that with a week off, the Jets would have their offense running smoothly.  We also thought that the Packers’ defense would be a little off after playing the Vikings on Monday Night Football.  It looked like the Lombardi Packers out there Sunday.

 

7. New Orleans Saints & Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 44 ½

WON

 

We were saved by the Sunday night game.  We felt that the Steelers would not allow the Saints to score 24 points in this game.  This was the best defense New Orleans has faced, and they have been having difficulty scoring.  We figured Pittsburgh would not score 20, and we were correct.

 

An Interesting Week of College Football

 

This will be an exciting week in the college football world.  There are games every night beginning Tuesday, and there will be reason to tune them in.

 

Tuesday night, Middle Tennessee travels to Arkansas State.  While we will not pick this game against the spread, because we pick our games late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning to get them to our subscribers by Thursday afternoon.  This game has added importance now that UL-Monroe knocked off Troy.  Middle Tennessee has one conference loss, while Arkansas State has two.  The loser will be out of the conference race, while the winner will have a chance should Troy fall again.  Additionally, the winner will be in good shape in the bowl picture, while the loser will be on thin ice.

 

Wednesday night, Rutgers visits South Florida.  The winner will emerge with a 5-3 record and an almost certain chance to become bowl eligible.  With Notre Dame falling out of the bowl picture for now, it looks like the Big East will need six bowl eligible teams.

 

Thursday night, Georgia Tech visits Virginia Tech, and the Hokies look like the class of the ACC.  If VT continues to win out and advances to the Orange Bowl, it will help Boise State stay in contention for the National Championship Game.  They would almost assuredly need an Oregon State victory over Oregon as well.

 

Friday night Central Florida plays at Houston in what could be a preview of the Conference USA Championship Game. 

 

On Saturday, there are several great games with important repercussions.  Arizona plays at Stanford.  The winner stays in contention for a possible BCS at-large bowl bid.  Stanford’s road to 11-1 is considerably easier than Arizona’s.

 

Illinois plays at Michigan.  Should the Illini win, expect the heat to come back under the seat of Coach Rich Rodriguez.  Ron Zook’s seat has cooled with Illinois on its way to a bowl game this year.

 

Virginia’s game at Duke did not look important a week ago, but after the Cavaliers knocked off Miami, this game became important.  Duke is coming off a big win against Navy, and they believe they can beat UVA.  Virginia is now in the bowl picture, and this becomes a must-win game.

 

Louisville ventures to Syracuse, where the Orange have become a conference champion contender.  The Cardinals are on the precipice of being good, and it is not impossible to see them pulling off a mild upset.  UL needs an upset to have a shot at a bowl.

 

Baylor plays at Oklahoma State in a game that now has direct bearing on the Big 12 South title.  Both teams have one conference loss, and both must still face Oklahoma.  The winner will have eight victories and move into Cotton Bowl contention as well.

 

North Carolina State plays at Clemson.  Coming off the upset of Florida State, the Wolfpack could be primed for a bounce, and Clemson needs an upset win.  After losing to Boston College, the Tigers are on the outside looking in for a bowl.  A loss here could send them to a 5-7 finish.

 

Oklahoma plays at Texas A&M, and if Ryan Tannehill has another day like he did against Texas Tech, the Aggies will have a chance to be there in the fourth quarter.  An upset would throw the South race wide open.  Oklahoma still has an outside shot at moving back to number two in the BCS, but we do not see it happening.  In fact, we believe they have a better chance of losing a second game this season.

 

Colorado must win at Kansas, or Dan Hawkins’ fate will be sealed.  The Buffalos are 3-5 and they have two other winnable games on the schedule.  We see them winning their fourth this weekend, but we aren’t so sure about those other two.  Hawkins may be finished in Boulder win or lose this week.

 

Texas faces Kansas State in the Little Apple, and this game is now a tossup.  The Longhorns could be in danger of falling all the way to 6-6 if they lose this game.  Kansas State needs one win to become bowl eligible, and they have North Texas at the end of the schedule to virtually guarantee that sixth win.  However, winning this game could move them up a couple notches in bowl priority.

 

Maryland plays at Miami, and the Hurricanes should be without quarterback Jacory Harris.  If Coach Randy Shannon chooses to play Harris after the QB suffered a concussion, then he should be put on the hot seat.  As for the Terps, they are now in strong contention in the ACC Atlantic Division.  With just one conference loss, they host Florida State and North Carolina State to conclude the regular season.

 

Arkansas visits South Carolina, where the winner stays in contention for the Capital One Bowl, Outback Bowl, and Cotton Bowl.  South Carolina could still win the automatic BCS Bowl bid, but we see that as a remote chance.

 

Air Force plays at Army, and the Black Knights have a chance to become bowl eligible.  This should be a great game.

 

Alabama ventures to Baton Rouge to take on LSU.  The winner stays in contention for the SEC West title and National Championship Game, while the loser can probably start making plans for the Cotton Bowl.

 

Hawaii is on a roll.  The Warriors have won six games in a row by an average score of 46-16.  Included in that streak are victories over Fresno State and Nevada.  Can the Warriors, who ranked 26^th in the AP poll give Boise State a close game at the field of blue?  A Bronco win in this game coupled with Auburn facing Chattanooga could allow BSU to jump over Auburn.

 

The Big Game of the Week

 

#3 T C U has a chance to jump into the Championship Game picture with a win at #5 Utah in what has to be considered the game of the week.  The two undefeated teams will battle it out in Salt Lake City, and the Utes have major revenge on their minds after last season’s humiliating loss in Ft. Worth.  The game will be televised on the CBS College Sports Network, and that network is offering a free preview this week.  If you have Dish Network, Charter Communications Cable, or Time Warner Cable, you should be able to receive this game.  Check with your local cable company if not.

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings For The Week

 

NCAA Top 25 November 1, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Oregon	134.0	8	0
2	T C U	129.5	8	0
3	Boise State	129.4	7	0
4	Alabama	128.6	7	1
5	Oklahoma	126.2	7	1
6	Ohio State	125.8	8	1
7	Stanford	124.9	7	1
8	Auburn	124.5	9	0
9	Iowa	123.6	6	2
10	Nebraska	122.8	7	1
11	Arkansas	122.8	6	2
12	Virginia Tech	121.6	6	2
13	Florida State	120.9	6	2
14	South Carolina	119.8	6	2
15	Utah	119.5	8	0
16	Wisconsin	119.3	7	1
17	Arizona	119.2	7	1
18	Missouri	118.9	7	1
19	Oregon State	117.2	4	3
20	Miami (Fla)	117.1	5	3
21	Florida	116.2	5	3
22	North Carolina	116.0	5	3
23	Georgia	115.6	4	5
24	Southern Cal	114.9	5	3
25	Mississippi State	114.6	7	2
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	4-1	6-2	120.9
Clemson	2-3	4-4	112.5
North Carolina State	3-1	6-2	107.3
Boston College	1-4	3-5	104.5
Maryland	3-1	6-2	99.9
Wake Forest	1-4	2-6	93.8
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	4-0	6-2	121.6
Miami-FL	3-2	5-3	117.1
North Carolina	2-2	5-3	116.0
Georgia Tech	3-2	5-3	111.9
Virginia	1-3	4-4	96.9
Duke	0-4	2-6	93.1

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Pittsburgh	3-0	5-3	111.5
West Virginia	1-2	5-3	111.5
Cincinnati	1-2	3-5	105.0
South Florida	1-2	4-3	104.5
Connecticut	1-2	4-4	104.2
Syracuse	3-1	6-2	103.5
Louisville	1-2	4-4	101.7
Rutgers	1-1	4-3	93.1

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	4-1	8-1	125.8
Iowa	3-1	6-2	123.6
Wisconsin	3-1	7-1	119.3
Michigan State	4-1	8-1	111.9
Michigan	1-3	5-3	106.2
Illinois	3-2	5-3	106.6
Penn State	2-2	5-3	105.6
Northwestern	2-2	6-2	96.4
Purdue	2-2	4-4	90.9
Minnesota	0-5	1-8	91.1
Indiana	0-4	4-4	89.7

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	3-1	7-1	122.8
Missouri	3-1	7-1	118.9
Colorado	0-4	3-5	100.8
Kansas State	2-3	5-3	97.8
Iowa State	3-2	5-4	94.0
Kansas	0-4	2-6	86.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	3-1	7-1	126.2
Texas A&M	2-2	5-3	114.3
Texas	2-3	4-4	112.5
Baylor	4-1	7-2	110.3
Oklahoma State	3-1	7-1	109.3
Texas Tech	2-4	4-4	103.0

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	4-0	6-2	103.0
East Carolina	4-1	5-3	95.8
Southern Mississippi	2-2	5-3	94.4
U A B	2-2	3-5	90.2
Marshall	1-3	2-6	82.0
Memphis	0-5	1-7	69.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-1	5-3	101.1
Tulsa	2-2	5-3	95.2
S M U	4-1	5-4	94.0
Rice	1-3	2-6	83.6
U T E P	2-4	5-4	82.0
Tulane	1-3	3-5	77.8

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-5	103.5
Navy		5-3	101.6
Army		5-3	89.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-1	7-2	95.2
Ohio U	4-1	6-3	89.9
Miami (O)	4-1	5-4	86.5
Kent St.	3-2	4-4	86.3
Bowling Green	1-4	2-7	77.6
Buffalo	1-3	2-6	76.9
Akron	0-5	0-9	64.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	5-0	7-2	98.6
Toledo	5-0	6-3	88.2
Western Michigan	2-2	3-5	84.2
Central Michigan	1-5	2-7	81.1
Ball State	1-4	2-7	75.2
Eastern Michigan	1-4	1-8	67.7

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	5-0	9-0	129.5
Utah	5-0	8-0	119.5
Air Force	3-3	5-4	105.8
S. D. State	3-1	6-2	100.0
B Y U	2-2	3-5	97.3
Wyoming	0-5	2-7	91.2
Colo. State	2-3	3-6	87.1
UNLV	1-3	1-7	85.0
New Mexico	0-4	0-8	72.9

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	5-0	8-0	134.0
Stanford	4-1	7-1	124.9
Arizona	4-1	7-1	119.2
Oregon St.	3-1	4-3	117.2
Southern Cal	2-3	5-3	114.9
California	2-3	4-4	112.9
Arizona St.	2-3	4-4	107.0
U C L A	1-4	3-5	104.5
Washington	2-3	3-5	103.8
Washington State	0-6	1-8	89.6

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	4-2	6-2	119.8
Florida	3-3	5-3	116.2
Georgia	3-4	4-5	115.6
Kentucky	1-5	4-5	108.2
Tennessee	0-5	2-6	99.4
Vanderbilt	1-4	2-6	92.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	4-1	7-1	128.6
Auburn	6-0	9-0	124.5
Arkansas	3-2	6-2	122.8
Mississippi State	3-2	7-2	114.6
L S U	4-1	7-1	113.9
Ole Miss	1-4	3-5	104.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	3-1	4-3	87.6
Middle Tennessee	2-1	3-4	85.9
Florida International	2-1	2-5	84.1
Arkansas State	3-2	3-5	82.1
Florida Atlantic	1-3	2-5	78.9
Louisiana-Monroe	3-2	4-4	77.8
North Texas	2-3	2-6	77.8
U. of Louisiana	2-3	2-6	76.6
Western Kentucky	1-3	1-7	73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	3-0	7-0	129.4
Nevada	2-1	7-1	107.5
Hawaii	5-0	7-2	106.7
Fresno State	3-1	5-2	96.7
Louisiana Tech	2-2	3-5	94.9
Utah State	0-4	2-6	90.7
Idaho	1-2	4-4	89.8
San Jose State	0-4	1-8	78.3
New Mexico State	1-3	2-6	72.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 2
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Middle Tennessee	ARKANSAS STATE	0.8	29-28
Wednesday, November 3
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
SOUTH FLORIDA	Rutgers	14.9	35-20
Thursday, November 4
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
OHIO U	Buffalo	16.0	33-17
VIRGINIA TECH	Georgia Tech	13.2	34-21
Friday, November 5
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Western Michigan	CENTRAL MICHIGAN	0.6	25-24
HOUSTON	Central Florida	1.6	35-33
Saturday, November 6
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
STANFORD	Arizona	9.2	33-24
Oregon State	U C L A	9.7	31-21
FLORIDA STATE	North Carolina	7.9	31-23
Nebraska	IOWA STATE	25.8	38-12
Iowa	INDIANA	30.9	44-13
Florida Atlantic	WESTERN KENTUCKY	3.3	27-24
MICHIGAN STATE	Minnesota	23.8	41-17
MICHIGAN	Illinois	2.6	34-31
OLE MISS	Louisiana Lafayette	30.5	48-17
Virginia	DUKE	0.8	27-26
Boston College	WAKE FOREST	7.7	28-20
SYRACUSE	Louisville	4.8	21-16
OKLAHOMA STATE	Baylor	2.0	33-31
TULSA	Rice	14.6	38-23
PENN STATE	Northwestern	12.7	33-20
CLEMSON	North Carolina State	8.2	32-24
Florida	VANDERBILT	21.0	28-7
Oklahoma	TEXAS A&M	8.9	33-24
Troy	NORTH TEXAS	6.8	31-24
California	WASHINGTON STATE	20.8	35-14
FLORIDA INT’L	UL-Monroe	9.3	30-21
Colorado	KANSAS	11.0	28-17
Texas	KANSAS STATE	11.7	26-14
MIAMI (FL)	Maryland	20.2	34-14
OREGON	Washington	33.7	51-17
Wisconsin	PURDUE	25.4	41-16
SOUTH CAROLINA	Arkansas	0.5	25-24
Missouri	TEXAS TECH	12.9	41-28
Air Force	ARMY	13.1	23-10
BALL STATE	Akron	13.3	25-12
BOISE STATE	Hawaii	26.2	50-24
B Y U	U n l v	15.3	24-9
Temple	KENT STATE	6.4	20-14
UTAH STATE	New Mexico State	20.9	42-21
Navy	EAST CAROLINA	2.8	34-31
T c u	UTAH	6.5	27-21
Southern Miss	TULANE	13.6	34-20
LOUISIANA TECH	Fresno State	1.7	27-25
U A B	Marshall	11.2	35-24
Nevada	IDAHO	14.7	42-27
Wyoming	NEW MEXICO	15.8	26-10
Alabama	L S U	11.7	26-14
Tennessee	MEMPHIS	27.0	40-13
S m u	U T E P	9.0	35-26
SAN DIEGO STATE	Colorado State	15.9	35-19
SOUTHERN CAL	Arizona State	10.9	35-24

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 2
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
ARKANSAS STATE	Middle Tennessee	29-24	31-24
Wednesday, November 3
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
SOUTH FLORIDA	Rutgers	30-24	34-24
Thursday, November 4
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
OHIO U	Buffalo	30-14	33-17
VIRGINIA TECH	Georgia Tech	35-20	35-20
Friday, November 5
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
Western Michigan	CENTRAL MICHIGAN	26-24	28-14
Central Florida	HOUSTON	34-31	30-34
Saturday, November 6
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
STANFORD	Arizona	30-24	28-23
Oregon State	U C L A	31-23	34-20
FLORIDA STATE	North Carolina	28-19	30-17
Nebraska	IOWA STATE	37-21	41-16
Iowa	INDIANA	40-17	38-21
Florida Atlantic	WESTERN KENTUCKY	26-24	28-17
MICHIGAN STATE	Minnesota	44-20	45-20
Illinois	MICHIGAN	36-34	35-38
OLE MISS	Louisiana Lafayette	41-18	44-19
Virginia	DUKE	24-21	27-18
Boston College	WAKE FOREST	35-31	34-17
SYRACUSE	Louisville	26-21	27-16
OKLAHOMA STATE	Baylor	35-27	31-27
TULSA	Rice	48-29	45-28
PENN STATE	Northwestern	31-22	28-17
North Carolina State	CLEMSON	31-30	30-31
Florida	VANDERBILT	23-7	27-7
Oklahoma	TEXAS A&M	34-27	34-21
Troy	NORTH TEXAS	40-31	41-27
California	WASHINGTON STATE	34-17	35-17
FLORIDA INT’L	UL-Monroe	24-19	16-26
Colorado	KANSAS	27-18	26-14
KANSAS STATE	Texas	24-21	20-24
MIAMI (FL)	Maryland	35-24	28-23
OREGON	Washington	52-24	56-17
Wisconsin	PURDUE	35-18	38-17
SOUTH CAROLINA	Arkansas	28-26	27-26
Missouri	TEXAS TECH	45-34	45-31
Air Force	ARMY	20-13	21-17
BALL STATE	Akron	27-14	20-16
BOISE STATE	Hawaii	49-31	48-31
B Y U	U n l v	30-14	31-10
Temple	KENT STATE	23-16	27-13
UTAH STATE	New Mexico State	37-21	33-24
EAST CAROLINA	Navy	37-35	37-31
T c u	UTAH	21-19	17-13
Southern Miss	TULANE	35-27	34-20
Fresno State	LOUISIANA TECH	27-26	23-31
U A B	Marshall	35-26	35-26
Nevada	IDAHO	40-28	41-28
Wyoming	NEW MEXICO	31-16	27-20
Alabama	L S U	24-20	24-14
Tennessee	MEMPHIS	31-14	34-18
S m u	U T E P	36-28	38-28
SAN DIEGO STATE	Colorado State	35-19	34-20
SOUTHERN CAL	Arizona State	38-28	38-28

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conference	vs.	Conference	Prediction	Prediction
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	vs.	WAC (#3?)	(La. Monroe 7-5)	Louisiana Tech 7-5
Humanitarian	MAC #3	vs.	WAC #(1) or 2	Temple 9-3	Nevada 9-3
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	vs.	C-USA #5	Troy 8-4	Tulsa 8-4
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	vs.	C-USA #4-6	Connecticut 6-6	East Carolina 8-4
Las Vegas	MWC #1	vs.	Pac 10 #5	Utah 11-1	(Ohio U 8-4)
Poinsettia	MWC #2	vs.	Navy or WAC	San Diego St. 8-4	Navy 7-5
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	vs.	C-USA #2-6	Hawaii 10-3	S M U 7-5
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	vs.	MAC #1-2	Northwestern 6-6	Northern Ill. 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	vs.	MWC #3	Clemson 6-6	B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports	Big East #2	vs.	ACC #3	South Fla. 7-5	Fla. State 9-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	vs.	Big 10 #4 or 5	Okla. State 10-2	Penn State 8-4
Military	ACC #8	vs.	C-USA #6	Maryland 6-6	Southern Miss 7-5
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	vs.	Big 10 #6-7	Texas A&M 6-6	Illinois 8-4
Alamo	Big 12 #3	vs.	Pac 10 #2	Missouri 11-1	Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	vs.	MWC #3-5/Army	Houston 8-5	Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	vs.	Big 12 #6-7	Pittsburgh 7-5	Texas 6-6
Music City	SEC # 7	vs.	ACC #6	Tennessee 6-6	North Carolina 6-6
Holiday	Big 12 #5	vs.	Pac 10 #3	Baylor 8-4	Oregon State 7-5
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	vs.	Big East #3-4	Georgia Tech 7-5	West Va. 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	vs.	Pac 10 #4	Miami (F) 7-5	California 6-6
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	vs.	C-USA #1	Kentucky 6-6	Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	vs.	ACC #2	Miss. State 8-4	North Car. St. 9-3
Dallas Football Classic	Big 10 #6-7	vs.	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Michigan 7-5	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	vs.	Big 10 #3	Florida 9-4	Ohio State 10-2
Capital One	Big 10 #2	vs.	SEC #2	Iowa 10-2	Arkansas 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	vs.	SEC #6	Michigan St. 10-2	South Carolina 8-4
Rose	BCS Pac10	vs.	BCS Big 10	Stanford 11-1	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	vs.	BCS At-Large	Oklahoma 12-1	Syracuse 10-2
Orange	BCS ACC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Va. Tech 11-2	T C U 12-0
Sugar	BCS SEC	vs.	BCS At-Large	Auburn 11-1	Boise St. 12-0
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	vs.	MAC #1 or 2	Middle Tenn. 7-5	Toledo 8-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	vs.	SEC #3-6 W	Nebraska 11-2	L S U 9-3
Birmingham	Big East #5	vs.	SEC #8 or 9	Louisville 6-6	Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	vs.	WAC #1	(Miami (O) 8-5)	Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	vs.	*** BCS #2 ***	Oregon 12-0	Alabama 12-1
Teams in (Parentheses) are at-large bids

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 26-30, 2010

PiRate Picks Continue The Winning Streak

 Eight for eight!  Yes, we have now had a winning weekend for all eight weeks of the season.  Our most recent showing produced a 6-3 record against the spread.

 Unlike previous weeks where the NFL games did it for us, it was our college sweetheart teaser plays that made it another profitable weekend.  We know from e-mails that many of you like only the college games.  You have told us that you are only breaking even playing our college games.  Well, you got a 4-0 weekend by playing our four college picks.

Our record for the year is now 43-19-2 for 69.4%.  We don’t officially break our picks down by college and pro picks, because there could be weeks where we combine college and pro games in a teaser or moneyline parlay.  While some of you follow us strictly for our college selections, we issue our weekly selections to be played in total.  We also advise against playing an even amount of games, because finishing with a .500 mark against the spread is a losing proposition.

Here are how our picks finished.

1. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Navy +16 ½ vs. Notre Dame; Maryland +15 vs. Boston College; Minnesota +18 vs. Penn State

WON

2. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Northwestern +14 ½ vs. Michigan State; Syracuse +23 vs. West Virginia; Iowa State +31 vs. Texas

WON

3. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Arkansas Pk vs. Ole Miss; Hawaii +7 vs. Utah State; California +7 vs. Arizona State

WON

. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Alabama -7 vs. Tennessee; South Carolina -1 ½ vs. Vanderbilt; Georgia +5 vs. Kentucky

WON

5. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins

Lost

6. Atlanta Falcons -3 ½ vs. Cincinnati Bengals

WON

7. Chicago Bears -3 vs. Washington Redskins

Lost

8. San Diego Chargers -2 ½ vs. New England

Lost

9. Oakland +7 ½ vs. Denver

WON

A Look At The BCS Conferences

A C C

Atlantic Division

Florida State plays at North Carolina State Thursday night, and the winner will be in control in the division.  We think that the Wolfpack could pull off the minor upset, but NCSU has three tough road games to play.  They will not go 3-0 playing at Clemson, North Carolina, and Maryland.  So, we are sticking with our guns here and going with the Seminoles to win the division at 7-1 in the league.

Maryland has just one loss in conference play, and they finish the season by hosting Florida State and North Carolina State.  The Terrapins must still play at Miami, so it will be close to impossible to win the division outright.  There is a chance they could figure in a tie at 6-2, but we believe they will fall to 5-3 or 4-4.

Clemson is out of the picture in the division race, but we believe the Tigers will get to eight wins and garner a decent bowl.

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech looks pretty after beginning 0-2.  The Hokies have run roughshod over six consecutive opponents.  They get two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech, and then the only tough game left to play is the November 20 contest at Miami.  We give VT a great chance of running the table.

Miami should finish second in the division, while North Carolina and Georgia Tech go 4-4.  Virginia is lurking in the shadows.  The Cavaliers were not supposed to contend this season, yet they are 3-4 overall.  UVA has games with Duke, Maryland, and Boston College, so there is an outside chance they could finish 6-6.  We think they will come up a bit short.

1. BCS Bowl (Orange): Virginia Tech

2. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida State

3. Champs Sports Bowl: Miami

4. Sun Bowl: Clemson

5. Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina State

6. Music City Bowl: North Carolina

7. Independence Bowl: Maryland

8. Eagle Bank Bowl: Georgia Tech

 Big East

This conference’s automatic BCS Bowl invitation should be revoked this year and given to the Mountain West Conference.  Nobody in this league even deserves the Champs Sports Bowl Bid!

The race is still up for grabs between everybody but Connecticut.  We do not see any team going 6-1.  5-2 should be enough to win the league.  Pittsburgh and Syracuse seem to have the best chances of getting to 5-2, but we think Cincinnati has a good chance of catching fire and winning four of five to get to 5-2 as well.  The Bearcats have home games with Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt, and road games against West Virginia and Connecticut.

 West Virginia has the talent to win the league, but they play too inconsistently.  We think the Mountaineers could be headed to a 4-3 league mark.  South Florida should join them at that level, and we believe Louisville could surprise a couple of teams and get there as well.  It all adds up to horrendous mediocrity.  If Pitt, Syracuse, and Cincinnati end at 5-2, then the Bearcats will sneak into a BCS Bowl at 7-5 overall.

 1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Cincinnati

2. Champs Sports Bowl: Syracuse

3. Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia

4. Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame

5. PapaJohns Bowl: South Florida

6. St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh

At-Large: Las Vegas Bowl: Louisville fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Big Ten

You will notice that our ratings fail to rank 8-0 Michigan State in the PiRate Top 25.  The Spartans have sort of fallen through the cracks in the way our computer system rates teams.  A win at Iowa is almost assured to move MSU up several spots, but we are unenthusiastic about calling for that win.  Thus, we do not believe a Big Ten team will play for the national championship. 

We feel the Spartans will finish 7-1 in league play, finishing in a three-way tie with Iowa and Wisconsin.  The tiebreaking procedure would give Michigan State the Rose Bowl bid.  We believe that an 11-1 Wisconsin team would receive one of the at-large BCS Bowl Bids over a 12-0 TCU/Utah team (assuming Boise State finishes 12-0 as well).

Ohio State must still visit Iowa, so we believe the Buckeyes could lose another game.  Should Ohio State beat Iowa and finish 7-1 along with Wisconsin and Michigan State, then the one with the highest BCS rating will get the bid.  It is too early to predict that.

1. BCS Bowl (Rose): Michigan State

1a. At-Large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Wisconsin

2. Capitol One Bowl: Ohio State

3. Outback Bowl: Iowa

4. Gator Bowl: Michigan

5. Insight Bowl: Illinois

6. Texas Bowl: Northwestern

7. Dallas Football Classic: Penn State

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: No available team

Big 12

Missouri must face Nebraska in Lincoln this week.  Coming off the major upset over the number one BCS team tends to make one believe that the Tigers will bounce and fall to the Cornhuskers.  There is one thing in their favor; the officiating should be as biased against Nebraska as it was in the game with Texas.  Any close call will go in Mizzou’s favor.

 We still believe that Bo’s boys will prevail and eliminate the last undefeated Big 12 team.  That would give Nebraska the division title in a tie.

 As for the South, Oklahoma should still win and finish 7-1, but don’t count out Oklahoma State just yet.  The Cowboys have a shot.

 A hearty congratulation goes out to Art Briles at Baylor.  The Bears are now bowl eligible at 6-2, and they actually remain in contention for the South Division flag.  They would have to win at Texas, at Oklahoma State, and beat Texas A&M at home before they would get Oklahoma at home to conclude the regular season.

 There are going to be several teams contending for their important sixth win and bowl eligibility.  We tend to believe Colorado has played themselves out of the mix, and thus Dan Hawkins’ days in Boulder are numbered.  Iowa State should handle Kansas, but then the Cyclones face Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri to close out the regular season.  They need two wins, and they could beat Colorado, but this figures to be Hawkins’ last home game.

1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

2. Cotton Bowl: Missouri

3. Alamo Bowl: Nebraska

4. Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State

5. Holiday Bowl: Texas

6. Texas Bowl: Baylor

7. Pinstripe Bowl: Texas A&M

8. Dallas Football Classic: Texas Tech

At-large Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Kansas State fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Pac-10

If Oregon knocks off Southern Cal this weekend, then we believe the Ducks will run the table and secure a spot in the National Championship Game.  If USC wins, then the Ducks will quack in the Rose Bowl instead.  We are going to say Oregon goes 12-0 (we may possibly play against them in the official picks against the spread, so don’t take this as a statement that we are picking Oregon this week).

There is a lot of mediocrity in the second half of the standings, and the Trojans are not bowl-eligible this year due to probation.  Throw in the possibility that Stanford could earn an at-large BCS bowl bid, and there is not much chance the league will be able to fill its bowl allotments.  We believe they could fall two spots short.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Oregon

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Stanford

2. Alamo Bowl: Arizona

3. Holiday Bowl: California

4. Sun Bowl: Oregon State

5. Las Vegas Bowl: No Team Available

6. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: No Team Available

S E C

Auburn rests at the top of the BCS standings after beating LSU, but we don’t believe the Tigers will be there on November 28.  We think they will lose to Alabama in the season finale but qualify as an at-large BCS Bowl member.

Alabama could sneak back into the number two spot by winning out, omitting a 12-0 Boise State team that has a virtual road win over another BCS Bowl team.  The Broncos could still win the AP National Championship by winning big in their bowl.

LSU and Arkansas should both finish with better records than any East Division team.  Mississippi State could as well, meaning the top five teams come from the West Division.

The East race is up for grabs.  Georgia began the season 0-3 in league play, but we feel like the Bulldogs will finish 4-4 and grab a piece of the flag.  Florida and South Carolina look to be heading to a 4-4 finish, assuming the Gators beat the Gamecocks, and the Gamecocks lose to Arkansas.  If Kentucky can upset Mississippi State in Starkville, then the Wildcats will have an excellent chance at going 4-4 in league play as well.  Vanderbilt should be an easy win, and Tennessee would be very winnable for the Wildcats.  UK has lost 25 in a row to the Vols, and this looks like the year it should end.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Alabama

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Rose): Auburn

2. Capitol One Bowl: Arkansas

3. Cotton Bowl: L S U

4. Outback Bowl: Florida

5. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia

6. Gator Bowl: Mississippi State

7. Music City Bowl: Kentucky

8. Liberty Bowl: South Carolina

9. PapaJohns Bowl: No Team Available

The PiRate Ratings Top 25 For October 25, 2010

 

Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Oregon	132.8	7	0
2	Boise State	129.8	6	0
3	Alabama	128.6	7	1
4	T C U	128.4	7	0
5	Oklahoma	125.4	6	1
6	Auburn	123.5	8	0
7	Ohio State	123.5	7	1
8	Florida State	123.0	6	1
9	Arkansas	121.7	5	2
10	Virginia Tech	121.6	6	2
11	Stanford	121.4	6	1
12	Iowa	121.1	5	2
13	Missouri	120.9	7	0
14	South Carolina	120.8	5	2
15	Nebraska	120.8	6	1
16	Utah	120.2	7	0
17	Miami (Fla)	119.8	5	2
18	Wisconsin	119.3	7	1
19	Arizona	118.9	6	1
20	North Carolina	116.7	4	3
21	Southern Cal	116.1	5	2
22	California	115.7	4	3
23	Georgia	115.6	4	4
24	Clemson	115.0	4	3
25	Mississippi State	114.9	6	2
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

  

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	4-0	6-1	123.0
Clemson	2-2	4-3	115.0
North Carolina State	2-1	5-2	105.2
Boston College	0-4	2-5	102.1
Wake Forest	1-3	2-5	98.8
Maryland	2-1	5-2	96.9
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	4-0	6-2	121.6
Miami-FL	3-1	5-2	119.8
North Carolina	2-2	4-3	116.7
Georgia Tech	3-2	5-3	111.9
Virginia	0-3	3-4	93.2
Duke	0-4	1-6	90.3

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	1-1	5-2	111.7
Pittsburgh	2-0	4-3	111.0
Cincinnati	1-1	3-4	108.2
South Florida	1-2	4-3	104.5
Connecticut	0-2	3-4	104.0
Louisville	1-1	4-3	102.2
Syracuse	2-1	5-2	100.8
Rutgers	1-1	4-3	93.1

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	3-1	7-1	123.5
Iowa	2-1	5-2	121.1
Wisconsin	3-1	7-1	119.3
Michigan State	4-0	8-0	114.7
Michigan	1-2	5-2	107.6
Illinois	2-2	4-3	104.5
Penn State	1-2	4-3	104.2
Northwestern	1-2	5-2	96.3
Purdue	2-1	4-3	93.4
Minnesota	0-4	1-7	93.1
Indiana	0-3	4-3	89.8

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Missouri	3-0	7-0	120.9
Nebraska	2-1	6-1	120.8
Colorado	0-3	3-4	101.7
Kansas State	2-2	5-2	98.3
Iowa State	2-2	4-4	93.4
Kansas	0-3	2-5	87.4
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	2-1	6-1	125.4
Texas	2-2	4-3	114.8
Texas A&M	1-2	4-3	112.8
Oklahoma State	2-1	6-1	108.8
Baylor	3-1	6-2	107.0
Texas Tech	2-3	4-3	104.5

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	3-0	5-2	101.5
East Carolina	4-0	5-2	96.8
Southern Mississippi	2-1	5-2	95.4
U A B	1-2	2-5	89.2
Marshall	0-3	1-6	81.6
Memphis	0-4	1-6	71.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	3-1	4-3	99.4
S M U	3-1	4-4	93.8
Tulsa	2-2	4-3	93.7
Rice	1-3	2-6	83.6
U T E P	2-3	5-3	82.4
Tulane	1-2	3-4	78.0

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-4	105.8
Navy		5-2	104.9
Army		4-3	90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-1	6-2	93.7
Ohio U	4-1	5-3	91.4
Miami (O)	3-1	4-4	85.8
Kent St.	2-2	3-4	85.3
Buffalo	1-2	2-5	77.6
Bowling Green	0-4	1-7	76.3
Akron	0-4	0-8	64.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	4-0	6-2	98.9
Toledo	4-0	5-3	86.2
Central Michigan	1-4	2-6	84.4
Western Michigan	2-1	3-4	83.0
Ball State	1-3	2-6	76.2
Eastern Michigan	1-3	1-7	69.7

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	4-0	8-0	128.4
Utah	4-0	7-0	120.2
Air Force	3-2	5-3	105.1
S. D. State	2-1	5-2	99.6
B Y U	2-2	3-5	97.3
Wyoming	0-4	2-6	91.6
Colo. State	1-3	2-6	85.5
UNLV	1-2	1-6	85.4
New Mexico	0-3	0-7	74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	4-0	7-0	132.8
Stanford	3-1	6-1	121.4
Arizona	3-1	6-1	118.9
Southern Cal	2-2	5-2	116.1
California	2-2	4-3	115.7
Oregon St.	2-1	3-3	113.4
Washington	2-2	3-4	106.8
U C L A	1-3	3-4	104.8
Arizona St.	1-3	3-4	104.3
Washington State	0-5	1-7	92.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	3-2	5-2	120.8
Georgia	3-3	4-4	115.6
Florida	2-3	4-3	114.7
Kentucky	1-4	4-4	107.9
Tennessee	0-4	2-5	98.1
Vanderbilt	1-3	2-5	93.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	4-1	7-1	128.6
Auburn	5-0	8-0	123.5
Arkansas	2-2	5-2	121.7
Mississippi State	2-2	6-2	114.9
L S U	4-1	7-1	113.9
Ole Miss	1-3	3-4	105.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	3-0	4-2	91.2
Middle Tennessee	2-1	3-4	85.9
Florida International	2-0	2-4	85.6
Arkansas State	3-2	3-5	82.1
Florida Atlantic	0-3	1-5	77.4
Western Kentucky	1-2	1-6	76.6
North Texas	1-3	1-6	75.8
U. of Louisiana	2-3	2-5	75.6
Louisiana-Monroe	2-2	3-4	74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	2-0	6-0	129.8
Nevada	1-1	6-1	107.2
Hawaii	4-0	6-2	103.2
Fresno State	3-1	5-2	96.7
Louisiana Tech	2-1	3-4	94.5
Idaho	1-1	4-3	92.3
Utah State	0-3	2-5	91.0
San Jose State	0-3	1-7	79.3
New Mexico State	0-3	1-6	71.8

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, October 26
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
BOISE STATE	Louisiana Tech	39.3	49-10
Thursday, October 28
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Florida State	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	14.8	35-20
Friday, October 29
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
West Virginia	CONNECTICUT	4.7	28-23
Saturday, October 30
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARKANSAS	Vanderbilt	31.4	41-10
ARIZONA STATE	Washington State	15.0	35-20
Arizona	U C L A	11.1	28-17
IOWA STATE	Kansas	9.0	23-14
Northwestern	INDIANA	3.5	31-27
WESTERN KENTUCKY	North Texas	3.3	34-31
Clemson	BOSTON COLLEGE	9.9	27-17
MARYLAND	Wake Forest	1.1	26-25
Auburn	OLE MISS	15.4	42-27
NEBRASKA	Missouri	3.4	27-24
OKLAHOMA	Colorado	27.2	41-14
OREGON STATE	California	0.7	28-27
PITTSBURGH	Louisville	11.8	26-14
TEXAS A&M	Texas Tech	11.3	38-27
TEXAS	Baylor	10.8	31-20
Miami (Fl)	VIRGINIA	23.6	34-10
Stanford	WASHINGTON	11.6	35-23
MISSISSIPPI STATE	Kentucky	10.0	34-24
ILLINOIS	Purdue	14.1	31-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA	East Carolina	7.7	35-27
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	10.4	23-13
Florida Int’l	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	5.7	27-21
IOWA	Michigan State	9.9	31-21
Oklahoma State	KANSAS STATE	7.5	38-30
Troy	LOUISIANA-MONROE	14.5	35-20
NEVADA	Utah State	19.2	40-21
SOUTH CAROLINA	Tennessee	25.7	38-12
SOUTHERN MISS	U  a  b	9.2	35-26
Northern Illinois	WESTERN MICHIGAN	12.9	34-21
TEMPLE	Akron	31.3	41-10
OHIO U	Louisiana-Lafayette	18.8	31-12
KENT STATE	Ball State	11.6	32-20
San Diego State	WYOMING	5.0	31-26
NOTRE DAME	Tulsa	15.6	40-24
MARSHALL	U t e p	2.2	30-28
Georgia (Jacksonville)	Florida	0.9	17-16
Miami (O)	BUFFALO	5.7	23-17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Bowling Green	11.1	34-23
NAVY	Duke	17.6	38-20
S m u	TULANE	13.3	37-24
San Jose State	NEW MEXICO STATE	5.0	31-26
Toledo	EASTERN MICHIGAN	14.0	35-21
COLORADO STATE	New Mexico	14.0	24-10
Houston	MEMPHIS	25.3	35-10
Utah	AIR FORCE	11.6	32-20
Oregon	SOUTHERN CAL	12.7	41-28
Ohio State	MINNESOTA	27.4	34-7
PENN STATE	Michigan	0.1	24-24 to ot
T c u	U N L V	40.0	47-7
HAWAII	Idaho	14.9	42-27

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Ratings Spreads

 

Tuesday, October 26
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
BOISE STATE	Louisiana Tech	45-14	45-17
Thursday, October 28
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
Florida State	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	31-26	27-31
Friday, October 29
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
West Virginia	CONNECTICUT	27-21	27-16
Saturday, October 30
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
ARKANSAS	Vanderbilt	31-10	38-10
ARIZONA STATE	Washington State	34-17	31-20
Arizona	U C L A	27-17	34-17
IOWA STATE	Kansas	31-12	35-13
Northwestern	INDIANA	35-32	37-30
WESTERN KENTUCKY	North Texas	38-31	41-24
Clemson	BOSTON COLLEGE	33-24	32-14
MARYLAND	Wake Forest	28-19	28-20
Auburn	OLE MISS	38-26	42-24
NEBRASKA	Missouri	28-26	27-24
OKLAHOMA	Colorado	38-17	45-14
OREGON STATE	California	28-27	31-21
PITTSBURGH	Louisville	24-14	23-17
TEXAS A&M	Texas Tech	34-28	35-31
TEXAS	Baylor	28-24	27-24
Miami (Fl)	VIRGINIA	31-14	30-17
Stanford	WASHINGTON	38-28	40-24
MISSISSIPPI STATE	Kentucky	33-24	27-25
ILLINOIS	Purdue	36-21	34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA	East Carolina	32-27	31-27
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	23-16	21-17
Florida Int’l	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	31-24	30-20
IOWA	Michigan State	31-26	27-26
Oklahoma State	KANSAS STATE	34-31	38-30
Troy	LOUISIANA-MONROE	31-20	37-13
NEVADA	Utah State	49-23	48-27
SOUTH CAROLINA	Tennessee	31-12	31-13
SOUTHERN MISS	U  a  b	40-28	41-31
Northern Illinois	WESTERN MICHIGAN	30-21	35-16
TEMPLE	Akron	37-7	41-7
OHIO U	Louisiana-Lafayette	33-14	35-19
KENT STATE	Ball State	30-21	31-21
San Diego State	WYOMING	29-24	28-19
NOTRE DAME	Tulsa	38-30	38-34
MARSHALL	U t e p	26-25	27-23
Florida	Georgia (Jacksonville)	20-19	14-23
Miami (O)	BUFFALO	28-26	30-20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Bowling Green	34-24	33-21
NAVY	Duke	38-19	37-20
S m u	TULANE	31-24	27-21
San Jose State	NEW MEXICO STATE	27-22	20-24
Toledo	EASTERN MICHIGAN	37-21	38-17
COLORADO STATE	New Mexico	34-17	34-17
Houston	MEMPHIS	31-14	31-16
Utah	AIR FORCE	28-20	31-10
Oregon	SOUTHERN CAL	35-27	38-28
Ohio State	MINNESOTA	34-10	44-10
Michigan	PENN STATE	28-28 to ot	30-26
T c u	U N L V	42-7	48-0
HAWAII	Idaho	41-27	44-27

 

PiRate Bowl Look

 

Bowl	Conference	Conference	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or 5	WAC (#3?)	San Diego St. 8-4	vs.	La. Tech 7-5
Humanitarian	MAC #3	WAC #1 or 2	Toledo 8-4	vs.	Nevada 9-3
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1 or 2	C-USA #5	Troy 9-3	vs.	Tulsa 7-5
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	C-USA #4	Pittsburgh 7-5	vs.	S M U 7-6
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac 10 #5	Utah 12-0	vs.	(Louisville 7-5)
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Navy or WAC	T C U 11-1	vs.	Navy 8-4
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3	C-USA #2	Hawaii 10-3	vs.	East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	MAC #1	(Army 7-5)	vs.	Northern Ill. 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	MWC #3	Maryland 7-5	vs.	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	ACC #3	Syracuse 9-3	vs.	Miami (F) 9-3
Insight	Big 12 #4	Big 10 #4 or 5	Oklahoma St. 10-2	vs.	Illinois 7-5
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	C-USA #6	Georgia Tech 6-6	vs.	Houston 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6	Big 10 #6	Baylor 7-5	vs.	Northwestern 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Pac 10 #2	Nebraska 11-2	vs.	Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	MWC #4 or 5	Southern Miss. 8-4	vs.	B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Big 12 #7	Notre Dame 6-6	vs.	Texas A&M 6-6
Music City	SEC # 7	ACC #6	Kentucky 7-5	vs.	North Carolina 7-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Pac 10 #3	Texas 7-5	vs.	California 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5	Big East #3	N. Carolina St. 8-4	vs.	West Va. 8-4
Sun	ACC #4	Pac 10 #4	Clemson 8-4	vs.	Oregon St. 6-6
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	C-USA #1	South Carolina 7-5	vs.	Central Florida 10-2
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	ACC #2	Georgia 7-6	vs.	Florida St. 10-3
Dallas Football Classic	Big 10 #7	Big 12 #8	Penn State 6-6	vs.	Texas Tech 6-6
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Big 10 #3	Florida 7-5	vs.	Iowa 10-2
Capital One	Big 10 #2	SEC #2	Ohio State 10-2	vs.	Arkansas 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	SEC #6	Michigan 8-4	vs.	Miss. State 8-4
Rose	BCS Pac10	BCS Big 10	Auburn 11-1	vs.	Michigan St. 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	BCS At-Large	Oklahoma 12-1	vs.	Cincinnati 7-5
Orange	BCS ACC	BCS At-Large	Virginia Tech 11-2	vs.	Boise St. 12-0
Sugar	BCS SEC	BCS At-Large	Wisconsin 11-1	vs.	Stanford 11-1
G M A C	Sunbelt #1 or 2	MAC #2	Middle Tenn. 7-5	vs.	Temple 9-3
Cotton	Big 12 #2	SEC #3 or 4	Missouri 11-1	vs.	L S U 9-3
Papajohns.com	Big East #5	SEC #8 or 9	South Florida 7-5	vs.	(Miami (O)) 8-5
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	WAC	(Kansas State 7-5)	vs.	Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	*** BCS #2 ***	Oregon 12-0	vs.	Alabama 12-1

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 21-23, 2010

Another Winning Week Against The Spread

Seven for seven!  It has been a number of years since we started out with seven consecutive winning weeks.  The parity in the NFL has made sweetheart teasers much easier to play this year, but we decided to play straight up this past week.  We still won, finishing 5-2 for the week and making our record for the season 37-16-2.  Let’s take a look at how it went:

 

1. Miami (O) +13 vs. Central Michigan

WON 

As we told all of those who purchased our picks, we thought the wrong team was a double-digit favorite.  The populace getting action on this game went on recent year data.  Yes, CMU was a league power under Brian Kelly and Butch Jones, going 38-17 in the prior four seasons and winning two bowl games.  The Chippewas lost to Ball State a couple weeks ago! 

 

Miami won two games or less three of the previous four seasons, including a 1-11 mark last year.  They have not had a winning season since Josh Betts was a junior in Oxford.  However, this year, the Redhawks are a prime contender in the MAC East.  We picked this “upset” outright. 

2. Georgia -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

 

Those of you who have followed our picks for awhile know we do not consider any games a “lock of the week”, “four-star pick,” “guaranteed game of the year,” etc.  We treat every selection equally, as one we think should win and nothing else.  However, we did state that this line was a joke and could be a mortgage-burning game. 

We called for Georgia to win by four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs won 43-0.  This game fell under three major categories as a game to consider.  First, Georgia won by 27 at home over a conference foe that was not an arch-rival the week before and then stayed at home to face a weaker rival the following week.  Second, the weaker opponent won over a patsy at home the week before and had to play a much stronger opponent on the road the following week.  Third, every facet of play favored Georgia—GA rush vs. VU rush defense; GA pass vs. VU pass defense; GA rush defense vs. VU rush; GA pass defense vs. VU pass; and special teams. 

 

3. Eastern Michigan +14 ½ vs. Ball State

WON 

It may not have been the politically correct thing to state Thursday to those who purchased our picks, but we said, “this was a play against Coach Stan Parrish.  Poor Stan came into this game with a career coaching record of 6-45-1.  Even against a team with an 18-game losing streak, we could not see Ball State winning by more than two touchdowns.  We knew that Eastern Michigan would enter this game with confidence and play like it was their one chance to win a game this season.  We did not call for the outright upset, but we thought that Ball State would win by less than a touchdown.   

4. SMU +2 vs. Navy

Lost 

This one looked good for most of the day.  We believed that Navy would not be able to stop the Mustangs’ passing game.  We thought it would be a 35-31 SMU win, and Navy’s defense proved to be up to the challenge.  We missed this one. 

5. St. Louis Rams +7 ½ vs. San Diego Chargers

WON

 

The Chargers lost on the road at Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle, three teams that have about the same amount of talent as St. Louis.  The Rams already owned home wins over the Redskins and Seahawks.  We loved that we got more than a touchdown in this one, and it was the first game we isolated when the spread hit seven and a hook. 

6. Cleveland Browns +13 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Lost 

This was our other loss of the week, and like the first one, we came tantalizingly close to winning this one.  Cleveland scored late to cut the Pittsburgh lead to 11 and then kicked off onsides.  It failed.  The Steelers were content to run out the clock, but the Browns called time out twice.  On 3^rd and long, Ben Roethlisberger through the fade into the end zone for a touchdown.  Still we had a chance, as the Browns quickly moved back into Steeler territory, but terrible game management ended the drive. 

7. Seattle Seahawks +6 vs. Chicago Bears

WON 

This was the last of the seven selections we chose last week, and to tell you the truth, had we been playing teasers, we would have left this one alone.  It was purely a system play, as the stats we compile showed it to be a toss-up game.  Seattle had an extra week to prepare, and Jay Cutler was coming off a concussion.   

Almost Like Playoffs

 

This has the makings of a great week in college football with several games serving as imitation playoffs.  At least two undefeated teams are assured of losing their first game as LSU faces Auburn and Oklahoma faces Missouri.  The other unbeatens include Michigan State playing at Northwestern.  The Wildcats had an off-week, so they benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game. 

Oklahoma State hosts Nebraska, and this looks like a close game.  If the Cowboys win this one, they could find themselves in first place in the Big 12 South.  TCU hosts Air Force, and the Horned Frogs should win by more than two touchdowns.  However, the Falcons have enough talent to challenge if TCU comes out flat.  Oregon hosts UCLA Thursday night, and we cannot see the Ducks losing at home to the Bruins.  Boise State has to wait until next Tuesday to play again, so we consider that game the following week. 

The Wild and Wacky SEC East

Look at the SEC East standings this week.  South Carolina and Florida both lost.  The Gamecocks lead the division at 2-2.  After starting league play at 0-3, Georgia is back in the race at 2-3.  Florida is also 2-3.  If the Bulldogs beat the Gators at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and Florida upends South Carolina, Georgia will be back in the driver’s seat. 

We believe there is a good chance that Georgia loses only to Auburn and finishes 4-4.  We can see South Carolina losing to Arkansas and Florida to finish 4-4.  We can see Florida losing to Georgia and beating South Carolina to finish 4-4.  Georgia would win this tiebreaker. 

Now for something even crazier.  What if Kentucky upsets Georgia this week after they upset South Carolina.  The Wildcats also started SEC play at 0-3.  A win over Georgia coupled by wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee would give them four conference wins.  Assuming they could not win at Mississippi State, Kentucky would win a three-way tiebreaker at 4-4 with South Carolina and Florida, or South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida (Georgia would have to beat Auburn in this scenario to get to 4-4). 

One more crazy thought.  With Alabama all of a sudden getting much easier to defend, and with Tennessee having a week to prepare, what if the Vols upset the Tide at Neyland Stadium this week?  It is not all that likely, but this is a tough rivalry game.  That would make Tennessee 1-3 with games left against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.  It wouldn’t be impossible to see Tennessee getting to 4-4 in this scenario. 

Only Vanderbilt appears to be totally out of the SEC East race, and yet, the Commodores are the only other team besides South Carolina with two conference losses.  The craziest thing of all:  If Vanderbilt could pull off a monumental upset over South Carolina (it is the Commodores’ Homecoming), they would move to 2-2 and be in first place in the division.  With a win over the Gamecocks, you would have to call the Tennessee and Kentucky games as winnable.  That would make Vandy 4-4.  They are more likely to finish 1-7, but just saying… 

This Week’s PiRate Top 25

 

NCAA Top 25 October 18, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Oregon	130.5	6	0
2	Boise State	129.8	6	0
3	Oklahoma	128.2	6	0
4	Alabama	127.9	6	1
5	T C U	127.4	7	0
6	Florida State	123.0	6	1
7	Auburn	122.7	7	0
8	Arkansas	122.5	4	2
9	Stanford	122.0	5	1
10	Iowa	121.4	5	1
11	South Carolina	121.0	4	2
12	Ohio State	120.8	6	1
13	Virginia Tech	120.5	5	2
14	Nebraska	120.5	5	1
15	North Carolina	119.1	4	2
16	Wisconsin	118.2	6	1
17	Texas	118.1	4	2
18	Missouri	117.8	6	0
19	Miami (Fla)	117.5	4	2
20	Utah	116.4	6	0
21	Southern Cal	116.1	5	2
22	Mississippi State	115.9	5	2
23	Arizona	115.9	5	1
24	Georgia	115.1	3	4
25	Michigan State	114.9	7	0
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

PiRate Ratings of All 120 FBS Teams (by conference)

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	4-0	6-1	123.0
Clemson	1-2	3-3	113.2
North Carolina State	2-1	5-2	105.2
Boston College	0-3	2-4	104.2
Wake Forest	1-3	2-5	98.8
Maryland	1-1	4-2	95.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-0	5-2	120.5
North Carolina	2-1	4-2	119.1
Miami-FL	2-1	4-2	117.5
Georgia Tech	3-1	5-2	113.8
Virginia	0-3	2-4	93.5
Duke	0-3	1-5	91.5

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	1-0	5-1	114.1
Pittsburgh	1-0	3-3	110.8
Cincinnati	1-0	3-3	110.2
Connecticut	0-1	3-3	107.5
South Florida	0-2	3-3	102.5
Louisville	0-1	3-3	98.4
Syracuse	1-1	4-2	98.4
Rutgers	1-0	4-2	93.3

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Iowa	2-0	5-1	121.4
Ohio State	2-1	6-1	120.8
Wisconsin	2-1	6-1	118.2
Michigan State	3-0	7-0	114.9
Michigan	1-2	5-2	107.6
Penn State	0-2	3-3	103.5
Illinois	1-2	3-3	103.3
Purdue	2-0	4-2	96.2
Northwestern	1-1	5-1	96.1
Minnesota	0-3	1-6	93.8
Indiana	0-2	4-2	91.1

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	1-1	5-1	120.5
Missouri	2-0	6-0	117.8
Colorado	0-2	3-3	102.0
Kansas State	2-1	5-1	97.9
Iowa State	1-2	3-4	91.2
Kansas	0-2	2-4	90.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	2-0	6-0	128.2
Texas	2-1	4-2	118.1
Texas A&M	0-2	3-3	111.2
Oklahoma State	2-0	6-0	109.1
Baylor	2-1	5-2	107.0
Texas Tech	1-3	3-3	104.2

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	2-0	4-2	100.4
Southern Mississippi	2-1	5-2	95.4
East Carolina	3-0	4-2	95.2
U A B	1-2	2-4	87.2
Marshall	0-2	1-5	83.5
Memphis	0-4	1-6	71.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	2-1	3-3	96.9
S M U	3-0	4-3	96.8
Tulsa	2-2	4-3	93.7
U T E P	2-2	5-2	85.6
Rice	1-2	2-5	84.8
Tulane	0-2	2-4	75.5

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-3	110.4
Navy		4-2	100.4
Army		4-3	90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	2-1	5-2	90.2
Miami (O)	3-0	4-3	88.6
Ohio U	3-1	4-3	88.6
Kent St.	1-2	2-4	83.7
Buffalo	1-1	2-4	81.2
Bowling Green	0-3	1-6	78.4
Akron	0-3	0-7	68.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	3-0	5-2	97.6
Toledo	3-0	4-3	86.4
Central Michigan	1-3	2-5	85.7
Western Michigan	1-1	2-4	79.5
Ball State	1-2	2-5	76.0
Eastern Michigan	1-3	1-6	69.4

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	3-0	7-0	127.4
Utah	3-0	6-0	116.4
Air Force	3-1	5-2	105.6
S. D. State	1-1	4-2	100.7
B Y U	1-2	2-5	97.5
Wyoming	0-3	2-5	91.4
Colo. State	1-2	2-5	88.3
UNLV	1-2	1-6	85.4
New Mexico	0-2	0-6	73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	3-0	6-0	130.5
Stanford	2-1	5-1	122.0
Southern Cal	2-2	5-2	116.1
Arizona	2-1	5-1	115.9
Oregon St.	2-1	3-3	113.4
California	1-2	3-3	113.0
Washington	2-1	3-3	109.9
U C L A	1-2	3-3	107.2
Arizona St.	1-2	3-3	107.0
Washington State	0-4	1-6	91.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	2-2	4-2	121.0
Georgia	2-3	3-4	115.1
Florida	2-3	4-3	114.7
Kentucky	1-3	4-3	107.9
Tennessee	0-3	2-4	98.9
Vanderbilt	1-2	2-4	93.6
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	3-1	6-1	127.9
Auburn	4-0	7-0	122.7
Arkansas	1-2	4-2	122.5
Mississippi State	2-2	5-2	115.9
L S U	4-0	7-0	114.7
Ole Miss	1-2	3-3	104.0

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Troy	3-0	4-2	91.2
Florida International	2-0	2-4	85.6
Middle Tennessee	1-1	2-4	84.1
Arkansas State	2-2	2-5	81.1
U. of Louisiana	2-2	2-4	80.6
Florida Atlantic	0-2	1-4	78.5
Louisiana-Monroe	2-1	3-3	76.0
North Texas	1-3	1-6	75.8
Western Kentucky	0-2	0-6	73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	2-0	6-0	129.8
Nevada	1-1	6-1	107.2
Hawaii	3-0	5-2	97.7
Fresno State	2-1	4-2	96.9
Louisiana Tech	2-1	3-4	94.5
Utah State	0-2	2-4	94.5
Idaho	0-1	3-3	92.0
San Jose State	0-2	1-6	79.1
New Mexico State	0-2	1-5	72.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, October 21
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
OREGON	U  c  l  a	26.8	37-10
Friday, October 22
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
CINCINNATI	South Florida	10.7	31-20
Saturday, October 23
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
AUBURN	L  s  u	11.5	36-24
ARKANSAS	Ole Miss	21.5	42-20
ARIZONA	Washington	9.5	31-21
STANFORD	Washington State	33.7	44-10
CALIFORNIA	Arizona State	9.0	30-21
COLORADO	Texas Tech	0.8	33-32
Michigan State	NORTHWESTERN	15.8	35-19
Georgia	KENTUCKY	4.2	35-31
Connecticut	LOUISVILLE	6.1	30-24
BOSTON COLLEGE	Maryland	12.3	28-16
Penn State	MINNESOTA	6.7	20-13
Oklahoma	MISSOURI	6.9	31-24
OHIO STATE	Purdue	28.1	38-10
Nebraska	OKLAHOMA STATE	7.9	28-20
PITTSBURGH	Rutgers	20.5	42-21
CLEMSON	Georgia Tech	2.4	30-28
South Carolina	VANDERBILT	24.9	28-3
BAYLOR	Kansas State	12.1	38-26
TEXAS	Iowa State	32.1	42-10
VIRGINIA	Eastern Michigan	27.6	42-14
VIRGINIA TECH	Duke	32.5	49-16
WEST VIRGINIA	Syracuse	18.7	32-13
MISSISSIPPI STATE	U  a  b	31.7	42-10
ILLINOIS	Indiana	15.2	35-20
ARKANSAS STATE	Florida Atlantic	5.6	30-24
Temple	BUFFALO	6.5	24-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Rice	19.1	31-12
IOWA	Wisconsin	6.7	27-20
Texas A&M	KANSAS	18.2	31-13
MIAMI (FL)	North Carolina	1.4	25-24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Louisiana-Monroe	10.6	35-24
Notre Dame	Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ)	10.0	34-24
Alabama	TENNESSEE	25.5	33-7
MIAMI (O)	Ohio U	2.5	30-27
B  Y  U	Wyoming	9.6	31-21
Kent State	BOWLING GREEN	2.8	31-28
Western Michigan	AKRON	8.1	31-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Central Michigan	14.9	35-20
S  M  U	Houston	2.9	34-31
EAST CAROLINA	Marshall	14.7	38-23
IDAHO	New Mexico State	22.9	45-22
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE	Western Kentucky	10.5	31-20
Hawaii	UTAH STATE	0.2	34-34 to ot
UTAH	Colorado State	31.6	42-10
TOLEDO	Ball State	13.4	30-17
Fresno State	SAN JOSE STATE	15.3	27-12
T  C  U	Air Force	25.3	34-9
U  T  E  P	Tulane	13.1	37-24
San Diego State	NEW MEXICO	24.8	35-10

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
Thursday, October 21
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
OREGON	U  c  l  a	40-17	41-17
Friday, October 22
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
CINCINNATI	South Florida	30-18	28-24
Saturday, October 23
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Biased
AUBURN	L  s  u	30-26	33-20
ARKANSAS	Ole Miss	42-30	45-27
ARIZONA	Washington	28-17	24-20
STANFORD	Washington State	45-12	38-10
CALIFORNIA	Arizona State	27-23	27-23
Texas Tech	COLORADO	31-31 to ot	34-27
Michigan State	NORTHWESTERN	31-20	37-17
Georgia	KENTUCKY	34-34 to ot	40-24
LOUISVILLE	Connecticut	28-27	30-19
BOSTON COLLEGE	Maryland	27-24	26-23
Penn State	MINNESOTA	21-13	24-10
Oklahoma	MISSOURI	29-28	30-17
OHIO STATE	Purdue	37-17	34-17
Nebraska	OKLAHOMA STATE	24-24 to ot	23-17
PITTSBURGH	Rutgers	28-17	27-17
CLEMSON	Georgia Tech	35-31	35-30
South Carolina	VANDERBILT	28-14	27-7
BAYLOR	Kansas State	30-28	34-26
TEXAS	Iowa State	26-10	31-3
VIRGINIA	Eastern Michigan	31-12	38-10
VIRGINIA TECH	Duke	41-12	41-10
WEST VIRGINIA	Syracuse	28-13	26-12
MISSISSIPPI STATE	U  a  b	34-10	35-17
ILLINOIS	Indiana	33-20	27-17
ARKANSAS STATE	Florida Atlantic	34-26	31-20
Temple	BUFFALO	24-16	26-14
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Rice	34-14	35-16
IOWA	Wisconsin	25-17	27-17
Texas A&M	KANSAS	33-20	44-13
MIAMI (FL)	North Carolina	24-21	24-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Louisiana-Monroe	34-30	35-20
Notre Dame	Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ)	30-28	31-21
Alabama	TENNESSEE	24-6	24-9
MIAMI (O)	Ohio U	27-28	32-19
B  Y  U	Wyoming	27-20	34-17
BOWLING GREEN	Kent State	28-25	28-26
Western Michigan	AKRON	34-21	31-21
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Central Michigan	33-20	33-14
S  M  U	Houston	40-32	41-24
EAST CAROLINA	Marshall	38-21	45-19
IDAHO	New Mexico State	42-17	38-16
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE	Western Kentucky	31-23	31-13
Hawaii	UTAH STATE	38-28	42-31
UTAH	Colorado State	38-9	27-10
TOLEDO	Ball State	35-21	41-10
Fresno State	SAN JOSE STATE	31-20	38-14
T  C  U	Air Force	27-10	27-10
U  T  E  P	Tulane	40-31	41-27
San Diego State	NEW MEXICO	42-16	42-13

 

This Week’s Look At the Bowls

We continue to believe that only TCU and Boise State could emerge as unbeaten teams.  We can see Oregon stubbing their toe in the competitive Pac-10.  We believe Michigan State will lose once in Big Ten play.  We think Oklahoma has three chances to lose a game, and Oklahoma State and Missouri will not run the table.  We believe the Auburn-LSU winner will lose to Alabama.  TCU should dismiss Utah, so that would leave just the Horned Frogs and Broncos undefeated.  If it happens, they should finish 1-2 in the BCS standings.  If you are a fan of college football playoffs, you need to pull for this scenario to happen.  Can you predict the reaction if 11-1 Alabama and 11-1 Oregon lost out on a chance to play for the National Championship?  You can substitute 11-1 Ohio State’s, Iowa’s, Nebraska’s, Auburn’s, LSU’s, and any other 11-1 team from a major conference. 

The at-large hopefuls out there may luck out on the Pac-10 not coming up with enough teams to fulfill their obligations.  If Oregon and Stanford both end up in BCS Bowls, and with Southern Cal ineligible, the league could find itself being unable to provide bowl-eligible teams to at least one bowl and maybe as many as three.  Our ratings indicated that from among Arizona State, California, Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington, one team could finish 6-6, while the others all finish 5-7.

 

(Parentheses mean at-large selection) 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or 5	(Ohio U 7-5)	WAC (#3-4)	La. Tech 6-6
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Temple 9-3	WAC #1 or 2	Nevada 10-2
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1 or 2	Troy 9-3	C-USA #5	U T E P 8-5
St. Petersburg	Big East #6	Syracuse 6-6	C-USA #4	Southern Miss 8-4
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Utah 11-1	Pac 10 #5	(Cincinnati 7-5)
Poinsettia	MWC #2	San Diego St. 8-4	Navy or WAC	Navy 7-5
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3	Hawaii 10-3	C-USA #2	East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	Northwestern 6-6	MAC #1	Northern Ill. 10-3
Independence	ACC #7	Miami 7-5	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	Notre Dame 7-5	ACC #3	North Carolina 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Wisconsin 9-3
Eagle Bank	ACC #8	Maryland 6-6	C-USA #6	S M U 7-6
Texas	Big 12 #6	Baylor 7-5	Big 10 #6	Illinois 8-4
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Nebraska 11-2	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	Tulsa 8-4	MWC #4 or 5	B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Rutgers 6-6	Big 12 #7	Texas Tech 6-6
Music City	SEC # 7	Miss. State 8-4	ACC #6	Georgia Tech 7-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Oklahoma St. 10-2	Pac 10 #3	California 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #5	Clemson 7-5	Big East #3	Pittsburgh 7-5
Sun	ACC #4	N. Carolina St. 8-4	Pac 10 #4	(Boston Coll. 7-5)
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Kentucky 7-5	C-USA #1	Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Florida 7-5	ACC #2	Florida State 10-3
Dallas Football Classic	Big 10 #7	Penn State 6-6	Big 12 #8	Kansas St. 6-6
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Georgia 7-6	Big 10 #3	Ohio State 10-2
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan St. 11-1	SEC #2	L S U 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 9-3	SEC #6	South Carolina 7-5
Rose	BCS Pac10	Oregon 11-1	BCS Big 10	Iowa 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 12-1	BCS At-Large	West Virginia 10-2
Orange	BCS ACC	Virginia Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	Stanford 11-1
Sugar	BCS SEC	Auburn 12-1	BCS At-Large	Alabama 10-2
G M A C	Sunbelt #1 or 2	Florida Int’l 6-6	MAC #2	Miami (O) 9-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Texas 10-2	SEC #3 or 4	Arkansas 10-2
Papajohns.com	Big East #5	South Florida 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	(Army 7-5)
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	(Toledo 8-4)	WAC	Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Boise State 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	TCU 12-0