Have To Wait A Day
Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay. Check back tomorrow to see how we did.
NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return
In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week. For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs. It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.
Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work. We choose to go with a 12-team playoff. We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.
Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid. Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.
Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:
Automatic Qualifiers
ACC Champion: Virginia Tech
Big East Champion: Connecticut
Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin
Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma
Pac-10 Champion: Oregon
SEC Champion: Auburn
Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.
Mountain West Champion: T C U
WAC co-Champion: Boise State
This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.
At-large: Stanford
At-large: Ohio State
At-large: Arkansas
At-large: Michigan State
Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs. Here are the seeds and brackets.
1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. T C U
4. Stanford
5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma
8. Arkansas
9. Michigan State
10. Boise State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Connecticut
Round One
Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut
Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech
Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State
Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State
Quarterfinal Round
Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner
Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer
Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner
Semifinal Round
Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner
Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner
Simper Bowl
National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner
Check back next Monday for Round One results.
The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings
The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia. That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.
| NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010 |
| Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Won |
Lost |
| 1 |
T C U |
133.1 |
12 |
0 |
| 2 |
Oregon |
132.5 |
12 |
0 |
| 3 |
Stanford |
131.8 |
11 |
1 |
| 4 |
Auburn |
131.0 |
13 |
0 |
| 5 |
Boise State |
128.8 |
11 |
1 |
| 6 |
Ohio State |
128.3 |
11 |
1 |
| 7 |
Oklahoma |
127.7 |
11 |
2 |
| 8 |
Alabama |
126.2 |
9 |
3 |
| 9 |
Wisconsin |
125.2 |
11 |
1 |
| 10 |
Arkansas |
124.7 |
10 |
2 |
| 11 |
Virginia Tech |
124.2 |
11 |
2 |
| 12 |
Florida State |
119.8 |
9 |
4 |
| 13 |
South Carolina |
119.4 |
9 |
4 |
| 14 |
Nebraska |
118.9 |
10 |
3 |
| 15 |
Texas A&M |
118.5 |
9 |
3 |
| 16 |
L S U |
117.7 |
10 |
2 |
| 17 |
West Virginia |
117.0 |
9 |
3 |
| 18 |
Oklahoma State |
116.3 |
10 |
2 |
| 19 |
Nevada |
115.7 |
12 |
1 |
| 20 |
Georgia |
115.7 |
6 |
6 |
| 21 |
Mississippi State |
115.6 |
8 |
4 |
| 22 |
Florida |
115.3 |
7 |
5 |
| 23 |
Missouri |
115.2 |
10 |
2 |
| 24t |
Arizona |
115.2 |
7 |
5 |
| 24t |
Iowa |
115.2 |
7 |
5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point |
| even though I rank them to two decimal points |
| Atlantic Coast Conference |
| Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Florida State |
6-2 |
9-4 |
119.8 |
| Clemson |
4-4 |
6-6 |
111.0 |
| North Carolina State |
5-3 |
8-4 |
110.2 |
| Maryland |
5-3 |
8-4 |
105.9 |
| Boston College |
4-4 |
7-5 |
105.0 |
| Wake Forest |
1-7 |
3-9 |
92.0 |
| |
|
|
|
| Coastal Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Virginia Tech |
8-0 |
11-2 |
124.2 |
| Miami-FL |
5-3 |
7-5 |
115.2 |
| North Carolina |
4-4 |
7-5 |
114.8 |
| Georgia Tech |
4-4 |
6-6 |
108.5 |
| Duke |
1-7 |
3-9 |
95.9 |
| Virginia |
1-7 |
4-8 |
95.0 |
| Big East Conference |
| |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| West Virginia |
5-2 |
9-3 |
117.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
5-2 |
7-5 |
110.7 |
| Connecticut |
5-2 |
8-4 |
108.0 |
| South Florida |
3-4 |
7-5 |
106.9 |
| Louisville |
3-4 |
6-6 |
104.1 |
| Cincinnati |
2-5 |
4-8 |
100.7 |
| Syracuse |
4-3 |
7-5 |
100.0 |
| Rutgers |
1-6 |
4-8 |
89.5 |
| Big Ten |
| |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Ohio State |
7-1 |
11-1 |
128.3 |
| Wisconsin |
7-1 |
11-1 |
125.2 |
| Iowa |
4-4 |
7-5 |
115.2 |
| Michigan State |
7-1 |
11-1 |
110.7 |
| Michigan |
3-5 |
7-5 |
105.3 |
| Penn State |
4-4 |
7-5 |
104.6 |
| Illinois |
4-4 |
6-6 |
104.4 |
| Minnesota |
2-6 |
3-9 |
96.1 |
| Northwestern |
3-5 |
7-5 |
92.9 |
| Purdue |
2-6 |
4-8 |
91.1 |
| Indiana |
1-7 |
5-7 |
90.1 |
| Big 12 |
| North Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Nebraska |
6-2 |
10-3 |
118.9 |
| Missouri |
6-2 |
10-2 |
115.2 |
| Kansas State |
3-5 |
7-5 |
100.0 |
| Colorado |
2-6 |
5-7 |
99.6 |
| Iowa State |
3-5 |
5-7 |
94.9 |
| Kansas |
1-7 |
3-9 |
88.2 |
| |
|
|
|
| South Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Oklahoma |
6-2 |
11-2 |
127.7 |
| Texas A&M |
6-2 |
9-3 |
118.5 |
| Oklahoma State |
6-2 |
10-2 |
116.3 |
| Texas |
2-6 |
5-7 |
106.3 |
| Baylor |
4-4 |
7-5 |
105.3 |
| Texas Tech |
3-5 |
7-5 |
104.4 |
| Conference USA |
| East Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Central Florida |
7-1 |
10-3 |
102.9 |
| Southern Mississippi |
5-3 |
8-4 |
98.4 |
| East Carolina |
5-3 |
6-6 |
90.0 |
| U A B |
3-5 |
4-8 |
86.3 |
| Marshall |
4-4 |
5-7 |
83.8 |
| Memphis |
0-8 |
1-11 |
70.7 |
| |
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Tulsa |
6-2 |
9-3 |
98.3 |
| Houston |
4-4 |
5-7 |
96.3 |
| S M U |
6-2 |
7-6 |
92.7 |
| U T E P |
3-5 |
6-6 |
86.0 |
| Rice |
3-5 |
4-8 |
84.5 |
| Tulane |
2-6 |
4-8 |
74.6 |
| Independents |
| |
|
|
|
| Team |
|
Overall |
Rating |
| Notre Dame |
|
7-5 |
108.9 |
| Navy |
|
8-3 |
102.6 |
| Army |
|
6-5 |
88.2 |
| Mid American Conference |
| East Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Temple |
5-3 |
8-4 |
92.6 |
| Miami (O) |
7-1 |
9-4 |
90.6 |
| Ohio U |
6-2 |
8-4 |
89.4 |
| Kent St. |
4-4 |
5-7 |
82.9 |
| Bowling Green |
1-7 |
2-10 |
75.0 |
| Buffalo |
1-7 |
2-10 |
70.2 |
| Akron |
1-7 |
1-11 |
67.7 |
| |
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Northern Illinois |
8-0 |
10-3 |
104.1 |
| Toledo |
7-1 |
8-4 |
89.3 |
| Western Michigan |
5-3 |
6-6 |
88.8 |
| Central Michigan |
2-6 |
3-9 |
83.7 |
| Ball State |
3-5 |
4-8 |
73.9 |
| Eastern Michigan |
2-6 |
2-10 |
66.9 |
| Mountain West Conference |
| |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| T C U |
8-0 |
12-0 |
133.1 |
| Utah |
7-1 |
10-2 |
111.1 |
| Air Force |
5-3 |
8-4 |
106.8 |
| B Y U |
5-3 |
6-6 |
104.8 |
| S. D. State |
5-3 |
8-4 |
104.4 |
| Wyoming |
1-7 |
3-9 |
88.0 |
| UNLV |
2-6 |
2-11 |
80.4 |
| Colo. State |
2-6 |
3-9 |
79.8 |
| New Mexico |
1-7 |
1-11 |
75.2 |
| Pac-10 Conference |
| |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Oregon |
9-0 |
12-0 |
132.5 |
| Stanford |
8-1 |
11-1 |
131.8 |
| Arizona |
4-5 |
7-5 |
115.2 |
| Southern Cal |
5-4 |
8-5 |
112.0 |
| Arizona St. |
4-5 |
6-6 |
111.0 |
| Oregon St. |
4-5 |
5-7 |
109.6 |
| California |
3-6 |
5-7 |
108.4 |
| Washington |
5-4 |
6-6 |
107.1 |
| U C L A |
2-7 |
4-8 |
101.8 |
| Washington State |
1-8 |
2-10 |
94.2 |
| Southeastern Conference |
| East Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| South Carolina |
5-3 |
9-4 |
119.4 |
| Georgia |
3-5 |
6-6 |
115.7 |
| Florida |
4-4 |
7-5 |
115.3 |
| Tennessee |
3-5 |
6-6 |
106.0 |
| Kentucky |
2-6 |
6-6 |
105.9 |
| Vanderbilt |
1-7 |
2-10 |
86.8 |
| |
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Auburn |
8-0 |
13-0 |
131.0 |
| Alabama |
5-3 |
9-3 |
126.2 |
| Arkansas |
6-2 |
10-2 |
124.7 |
| L S U |
6-2 |
10-2 |
117.7 |
| Mississippi State |
4-4 |
8-4 |
115.6 |
| Ole Miss |
1-7 |
4-8 |
100.1 |
| Sunbelt Conference |
| |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Florida International |
6-2 |
6-6 |
87.0 |
| Arkansas State |
4-4 |
4-8 |
83.9 |
| Troy |
6-2 |
7-5 |
85.8 |
| Middle Tennessee |
5-3 |
6-6 |
82.8 |
| North Texas |
3-5 |
3-9 |
79.7 |
| Louisiana-Monroe |
4-4 |
5-7 |
78.1 |
| U. of Louisiana |
3-5 |
3-9 |
77.6 |
| Western Kentucky |
2-6 |
2-10 |
75.1 |
| Florida Atlantic |
3-5 |
4-8 |
73.7 |
| Western Athletic Conference |
| |
|
|
|
| Team |
Conf. |
Overall |
Rating |
| Boise State |
7-1 |
11-1 |
128.8 |
| Nevada |
7-1 |
12-1 |
115.9 |
| Hawaii |
7-1 |
10-3 |
108.9 |
| Fresno State |
5-3 |
8-4 |
98.2 |
| Louisiana Tech |
4-4 |
5-7 |
93.0 |
| Idaho |
3-5 |
6-7 |
88.1 |
| Utah State |
2-6 |
4-8 |
88.0 |
| San Jose State |
0-8 |
1-12 |
78.5 |
| New Mexico State |
1-7 |
2-10 |
71.9 |
| This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings |
| Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points) |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| Saturday, December 11 |
|
|
|
| Favorite |
Underdog |
Spread |
Score |
| Navy |
Army (Philadelphia) |
14.4 |
31-17 |
| This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings |
| Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points) |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| Saturday, December 11 |
|
|
|
| Favorite |
Underdog |
Mean |
Bias |
| Navy |
Army (Philadelphia) |
31-23 |
27-21 |
A Look At The Bowls
Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year.
All Times Eastern Standard
Saturday, December 18
The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM
2:00 PM ESPN
B Y U 6-6 vs. U T E P 6-6
The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID
5:30 PM ESPN
Northern Illinois 10-3 vs. Fresno State 8-4
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA
9:00 PM ESPN
Troy 7-5 vs. Ohio U 8-4
Tuesday, December 21
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL
8:00 PM ESPN
Louisville 6-6 vs. Southern Mississippi 8-4
Wednesday, December 22
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV
8:00 PM ESPN
Utah 10-2 vs. Boise State 11-1
Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team
Thursday, December 23
San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA
8:00 PM ESPN
San Diego State 8-4 vs. Navy 8-3 (+ Army Game)
Friday, December 24
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI
8:00 PM ESPN
Hawaii 10-3 vs. Tulsa 9-3
Sunday, December 26
Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI
8:30 PM ESPN
Florida International 6-6 vs. Toledo 8-4
Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team
Monday, December 27
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA
5:00 PM ESPN-2
Georgia Tech 6-6 vs. Air Force 8-4
Tuesday, December 28
Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL
6:30 PM ESPN
West Virginia 9-3 vs. North Carolina St. 8-4
Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ
10:00 PM ESPN
Missouri 10-2 vs. Iowa 7-5
Wednesday, December 29
Military Bowl—Washington, DC
2:30 PM ESPN
Maryland 8-4 vs. East Carolina 6-6
Texas Bowl—Houston, TX
6:00 PM ESPN
Baylor 7-5 vs. Illinois 7-5
Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX
9:15 PM ESPN
Oklahoma State 10-2 vs. Arizona 7-5
Thursday, December 30
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX
12 Noon ESPN
S M U 7-6 vs. Army 6-5 (+ Navy Game)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY
3:20 PM ESPN
Syracuse 7-5 vs. Kansas State 7-5
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN
6:40 PM ESPN
Tennessee 6-6 vs. North Carolina 7-5
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA
10:00 PM ESPN
Nebraska 10-3 vs. Washington 6-6
Friday, December 31
Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC
12 Noon ESPN
Clemson 6-6 vs. South Florida 7-5
Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX
2:00 PM CBS
Miami (FL) 7-5 vs. Notre Dame 7-5
Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team
AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN
3:30 PM ESPN
Georgia 6-6 vs. Central Florida 10-3
Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA
7:30 PM ESPN
South Carolina 9-4 vs. Florida State 9-4
Saturday, January 1
Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX
12 Noon ESPN-U
Northwestern 6-6 vs. Texas Tech 7-5
Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL
1:00 PM ABC
Florida 7-5 vs. Penn State 7-5
Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL
1:00 PM ESPN
Michigan State 11-1 vs. Alabama 9-3
Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL
1:30 PM ESPN-2
Michigan 7-5 vs. Mississippi State 8-4
Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA
5:00 PM ESPN
T C U 12-0 vs. Wisconsin 11-1
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ
8:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma 11-2 vs. Connecticut 8-4
Monday, January 3
Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL
8:30 PM ESPN
Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Stanford 11-1
Tuesday, January 4
All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA
8:30 PM ESPN
Arkansas 10-2 vs. Ohio State 11-1
Thursday, January 6
GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL
8:00 PM ESPN
Middle Tennessee State 6-6 vs. Miami (OH) 9-4
Friday, January 7
AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX
8:00 PM Fox
Texas A&M 9-3 vs. L S U 10-2
Saturday, January 8
BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL
12 Noon ESPN
Pittsburgh 7-5 vs. Kentucky 6-6
Sunday, January 9
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA
9:00 PM ESPN
Boston College 7-5 vs. Nevada 12-1
Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team
Monday, January 10
National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ
8:30 PM ESPN
Auburn 13-0 vs. Oregon 12-0
The Pi-Rate Ratings 