The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 12, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 12-16, 2020

A Week In The Penthouse Doesn’t Mean To Open The Vault

Last week, when we posted the weekly selections, we hinted that we really liked a lot of picks that seemed to tilt the numbers slightly in our favor, or to be more precise, to overcome the percentage vigorish that the selections had on the other side.

We were correct much more often than incorrect last week, and it resulted in a little fake bonanza in imaginary Vegas Book. We hit on three Money Line Parlays at better than +100 odds, and we hit on three of five 10-point teasers to parlay the selections into a better than 30% profit for the week.

There were other selections that became void after last week’s post was published, as games were called off late due to Covid. Eight games are already off the boards this week as this post publishes, and there is a chance that one or more of this week’s choices will be taken off the board as well. We tried to anticipate which games have the greater chances of being cancelled and left them off this week’s consideration list.

Additionally, we eliminated some teams from consideration due to prior Covid concerns that have left these teams with too many weeks off and too many recovering key players. We only really went with one selection where a college team has played just one game so far–Wisconsin.

Our sentiment is that this week is considerably more difficult to isolate favorable selections. We rely more on the numbers than the actual teams in most of our selections, as Nevada rarely misses on lines this late in the season, even in this dysfunctional 2020 season.

What we have favored this week are the lines that help us move through the highest percentage of key numbers, both in spreads and totals for the teasers. We also used our in-house formula for maximizing money line parlay spreads with our own personal ratings and predicted win percentages.

As usual, please read our disclosure: The PiRates NEVER wager real money on these selections. This is strictly a fun exercise with numbers performed by a bunch of numbers’ nerds that just happened to have all played football, but on the other hand, we have all had concussions from playing football, and sometimes we appear to be a bit punch drunk. So, DON’T blow your Christmas Fund on selections you will see below.

That goes for you, Ms. Buckeye in Florida, who didn’t listen to the warning after reading it a zillion times and went and bet big on the Gators at +150 to beat Georgia outright last week. You won last week, so you are very likely to lose this week if you choose one selection from our list.

Date:Nov. 12-16
College 10-point Teasers @-110

1. SelectionOpponentLine
PurdueNorthwestern+12 1/2
Ole MissS. Carolina-1
OregonWash. St.Pk

2. Selection (CANCELLED)OpponentLine
Coastal Car.Troy– 1/2
Fresno St.Utah St.Pk
Ga. SouthernTexas St.Pk

College Money Line Parlays

3. Must WinOpponentOdds
WisconsinMichigan+118.99
RutgersIllinois

4. Must WinOpponentOdds
W. VirginiaTCU
Ga. SouthernTroy+178.70
Ole MissS. Carolina

5. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
UtahUCLA+132.03
IndianaMichigan St.

6. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
Arizona St.California+106.90
OregonWash. St.

NFL 10-point Teasers @ -110

7. TeamTeamTotal
TennesseeIndianapolisO38 1/2
ClevelandHoustonO39
New OrleansSan FranciscoO39

8. TeamTeamTotal
DetroitWashingtonO 36 1/2
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphiaO 34 1/2
MiamiLA ChargersO 38 1/2

NFL Money Line Parlays

9. Must WinOpponentOdds
Tampa BayCarolina+155.57
MiamiLA Chargers

10. Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants+138.24
Las VegasDenver

11. Must WinOpponentOdds
New OrleansSan Francisco
BaltimoreNew England+162.57
ClevelandHouston

August 22, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For August 24, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:35 am

Welcome to the debut of the 2019 PiRate Ratings Picks.  During the football season, we will issue our pretend financial advice for you to read as entertainment purposes only and not to wager real money on games.

We pretend to make $100 wagers on whatever it is we select.  In the past, we have done this with money line parlays, teasers, straight wagers, and regular spread parlays.  Through the years, we have discovered our most successful style of wagering has been playing money line parlays.  At one time, we were successful teasing the totals lines.  13-point, 4-game parlays of teaser totals gave us an incredible hot streak one season when the standard deviation of scores was much lower than normal.

In this decade, there has been higher standard deviation in NFL scores, because the new rule moving extra points back 15 yards has created instability in game scores.

Many years ago, we had a rather impressive result playing the middle in games, but that was when we had permission to release the “outlaw” line before the official opening line.  Without the ability to see the Outlaw line and then the opening line, it was impossible to try to guess which games would see a large enough swing to go with both sides.

Since there are only two games this week, both college games, there is no real play that can be issued with our strategy.  If you take both favorites this week, Florida over Miami and Arizona over Hawaii, the best money line parlay odds you can get today is .6941, which means you would win $169.41 if you bet $100 and the two favorites won.  That means you would get your $100 investment back with $69.41 in profits.  Our philosophy is to only play parlays with odds of +120 or better, meaning you would receive $220  or more on a $100 wager.

In order to play a parlay with better than +120 odds this week, we would have to pick Hawaii or Miami to win outright.  If we selected Florida to beat Miami and Hawaii to upset Arizona, the parlay odds would be around +500 at this very moment.  That means, we would win $600 on a $100 wager if Florida and Hawaii won.

Alas, we are only confident this week of one outcome, that Florida will indeed beat Miami.  The actual point spread is right where we believe it should be, so playing the line is out of the question.

The best Money Line spread available to us at midday Thursday is -290, which means if we wager $100 on this game, if Florida won, we’d get a tiny $34.48 profit.  The reward is too small for the risk.

The totals for these two games do not give us a chance to come up with a playable parlay either, so for Week 0, we are not issuing any official picks.  We prefer to pick our spots and play only games that we are confident in occasionally winning.  If we play Money Line parlays with odds of +120 or better, we can win a smaller percentage of games and still turn a profit.

Let’s say we play 50 games this year with an average parlay odd of +180  Let’s say we get lucky and win 20.  Here’s how that would affect our imaginary bank account.

50 wagers of $100 each = $5,000 investment

20 Wins at +180 = $3,600 in winnings

30 Losses at +180 = $3,000 in losses

$600 profit at the end of the 50 wagers

12% Return on Investment

This 12% would take place in roughly 4 months, so the annualized Return on Investment would be 36%.  Not many investments return 36% in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub: how likely is it that we can win 40% of our Money Line wagers at +180 odds?  The answer at the present time is one year in four, or to re-phrase it, four years ago.  The only solace is that the most recent three years brought imaginary profits as well, just nothing close to an annualized return of 36%.  Our 2018 season profit was so small it is not worth mentioning.  It was better in 2017 and much better in 2016, so the four year trend has been going in the wrong direction.

Ah, but here’s the other rub: We invested imaginary funds in all the years we have issued our selections.  Being 100% accurate and being 0% accurate brings the same outcome on zero real dollars invested.

Last year, we welcomed five of our long time friends to participate in a contest selecting winners against the spread.  It was a close contest all year, and as a group the five turned a small profit.  This year, we are going to have a guest computer program try to pick winners.  We decided to call this program “Davey 19.”  Davey is named for a former quarterback at TCU and for a short time with the Philadelphia Eagles.  Davey was only 5 foot 7 inches tall, but he had the heart of a giant and the fundamentals of a robot, so that’s why we are calling our guest computer program Davey 19 this year.

We will give Davey an identical rule–to make investments in imaginary $100 wagers.  Davey can make any type of selection in college and the NFL.  Davey does have one selection this week.

 

PiRate Picks For August 24, 2019

None   (not enough games for a playable parlay)

 

Davey 19 Selection For August 24, 2019

Hawaii +11 vs. Arizona

 

We do feel like Florida has a better than 60% chance to beat Miami, but the Money Line odd is too low to make enough profit to limit risk.

January 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Conference Championship Playoff Round: January 20, 2019

Sunday, January 20, 2019

NFC Championship Game

Los Angeles Rams 14-3-0 at New Orleans Saints 14-3-0

Time: 3:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox

Monday Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2

Total Line: 57

PiRate Ratings 

PiRate: New Orleans by 8.1

Mean: New Orleans by 7.8

Bias: New Orleans by 8.1

Total: 55 1/2

Expected Score: New Orleans 31  Los Angeles 24

 

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots 12-5-0 at Kansas City Chiefs 13-4-0

Time: 6:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Monday Line: Kansas City by 3

Total Line: 57

PiRate Ratings 

PiRate: Kansas City by 4.4

Mean: Kansas City by 4.4

Bias: Kansas City by 4.3

Total: 53

Expected Score:  Kansas City 28  New England 24

 

60 Seasons Ago

The NFL as we know it today owes its popularity to 60 years ago at the conclusion of the 1958 regular season.  This would be the first ever live nationally televised NFL Championship Game.  Before you wonder why other games before were not shown from coast to coast, just 10 years before only a handful of cities had television stations.  In some cities, only a test pattern was shown for most or all of the day, and people would turn their sets on to see it!  So, TV was still in its adolescence in 1958.

The upstart Baltimore Colts, led by the young and talented quarterback Johnny Unitas, fullback Alan Ameche, and two incredible pass catchers in Raymond Berry and Lenny Moore won the West Division Championship with a 9-3 record, 8-1 in the games Unitas started and played.  That one loss was to the New York Giants, a team with the greatest ever combination of offensive and defensive coordinators.  Vince Lombardi directed the Giants’ offense, and Tom Landry led the Giants’ defense.

Before the Giants could host this game in Yankee Stadium, they had to play an extra game to get to the NFL Championship Game.  The Giants finished tied with Cleveland at 9-3, and even though they had swept the Browns in the regular season, in those days if teams finished tied at the top of a division race, they played again for the division title, and the NFL Championship Game was re-scheduled for a week later.

New York stopped Cleveland for a third time that year, holding the great Jim Brown to just eight yards rushing in a 10-0 shutout.  The Giants were the favorites, and Jim Lee Howell and his coaching staff were more than prepared to contain Unitas and move the ball on offense with a conservative smash-mouth style of offense.

Like I said previously, it is because of this game that the NFL became what it is today.  Overnight, sports fans throughout the country stopped talking about the New York Yankees chances of repeating as World Series champions in 1959 (they would not), or whether the great two-year old thoroughbred Sword Dancer would break the 11-year string and win the Triple Crown (2nd in the Derby and Preakness and won the Belmont).

NFL Football was at best the number three sport in America before this game.  Major League baseball was still the number one sport and the real American Pastime.  There were still just 16 teams in the big leagues, even though two had left the number one market for the West Coast.  College football was number two, and the recent champion LSU Tigers with their famous Chinese Bandits had generated a lot of the headlines that Autumn.

If by chance you do not know how the NFL Championship Game turned out and why it “made” NFL Football into the number one spectator sport in the nation, take a look at this video from NFL Films.

 

January 24, 2018

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl Teaser

We come to the last football picks post of the season.  The PiRates stayed away from the college bowl season and the NFL playoffs to this point, but we are staring at a little deficit for the season.

For three consecutive years, the PiRate Ratings earned a “profit” with our “imaginary” bank roll.  Wagering an equal fake $100 on every selection, we have enjoyed two marvelous seasons and one minor success in the last three years.

The 2017-18 season brought us back down to Earth, but a late surge brought the losses to the point where one final win would give us a winning season even more miraculous than the Jets beating the Colts in SB III.

So, with that in mind, we issue our final selection for the football season.  And, it is not even a money line selection like almost all of our picks.  We go back to a 10-point teaser parlay, something that used to give us some success, but something we got away from when we became rather lucky with money line parlays.

Because our computer ratings and simulations show this game to be as tight as it can be, and the standard deviation of our simulations comes in rather lean, we believe it is possible to make four picks in this game and combine them into a 4-event parlay at +136 odds.  The deficit sits at $-146, so a win would make a 3% loss become a 2% profit for the year.

So, without further adieu, here is our pretend final play of the season.

The wager for this game is doubled to $200.

SUPER BOWL 52 Pick

Super Bowl 52  Sunday, February 4, 2018 6:30 PM EST 
10-point teaser 
 $200 on 4-team parlay @ +136 $200 wins $472
Team 1 Team 2 Number
New England Philadelphia +4.5
Philadelphia New England +15.5
New England Philadelphia Under 57.5
New England Philadelphia Over 37.5

October 22, 2015

Selections Against The Spread: October 22-26, 2015

Okay folks.  Let’s not get carried away.  We welcome your comments here, and especially to our sister site at http://www.piratings.webs.com.  Yes, we know that a certain part of this weekly edition has been destroying the books in theory, theory being if you actually used these picks.

We will not name names, since you guys probably don’t want your name being called out, but we will post here a couple of the comments to our sister site.

From a small city in Georgia: “If you would have played your Money Line picks the last three weeks, you would be rich today.”

 

From Vancouver, BC: “Do you know what your profit margin would have been this week if you wagered that mythical $100 on each of your four parlays?  That $400 would have won you almost $900.

 

From Henderson, NV: “Your money line selections have been killing it.  You should just do Money Line parlays.  I am going to wager on your selections next week.”

 

From Ada, OK: “Do you realize how well you did with those parlays?  You don’t know jackxxxx about the baseball dude.”

 

From Glenarm IL: “You nailed the parlay picks this week.”

 

We get about 40-50 comments a week, and usually they are not as flattering as these.  We read them all and usually get a laugh, because we perpetually remind you to NEVER, EVER, EVER use these fun-only selections to wager real money.  Just because we are having an incredibly hot streak with our money line selections, it does not mean they will continue.  We could easily go 0-4 with the picks we are going to issue today.

 

You have been warned, especially the gentleman in Henderson, NV, who supposedly is going to wager real money this week against our warnings.

Since you guys and gals like these money line parlays with better than even money odds, that’s all we’re going to submit this week.  We have made four selections again, each with a return that will give you more in winnings than you would invest if it were real.

 

Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 7-5   $242 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
East Carolina Temple   East Carolina
Alabama Tennessee   Alabama
North Carolina Virginia   North Carolina
Southern Miss. Charlotte   Southern Miss.

 

Money Line Parlay 6 Teams at 13-5   $355 Payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Toledo Massachusetts   Toledo
Michigan St. Indiana   Michigan St.
Rice Army   Rice
Cincinnati Connecticut   Cincinnati
Mississippi St. Kentucky   Mississippi St.
Florida St. Georgia Tech   Florida St.

 

Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 9-5   $277 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
St. Louis Cleveland   St. Louis
New England N. Y. Jets   New England
Carolina Philadelphia   Carolina

 

Money Line Parlay 2 Teams at 6-5   $218 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Buffalo Jacksonville   Buffalo
Miami Houston   Miami

 

 

October 8, 2015

This Week’s Selections: October 8-12, 2015

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:25 am

We told you last week, and it came true last week.  A broken clock is correct twice a day, and the PiRate clock just happened to experience one of those instances where we lucked into a nice winning weekend.

Our straight picks against the side went 4-2-1, and our Money Line parlays returned 70% on investment.  Yes, it was a nice winning week for those that theoretically used our picks as their investment advice.  And, we received positive comments from some of you, two of whom thanked us for supplying research data by commenting at our sister site: http://www.piratings.webs.com.

This disturbs us.  How many times have we warned you readers not to use our picks as your method of choice to wager real money?  How many times can we say that you are getting exactly what you paid for–NOTHING!

Our selections are strictly for fun, much in the way you might play a game of Strat-o-Matic baseball against a friend.  Your 1927 Yankees may beat your friend’s 1954 Indians 5-3, and 15 minutes later, it is forgotten (unless you live in a make-believe world).  These picks should be considered Strat-o-Matic wagering.  Use your Monopoly money to make wagers; please do not use these picks for real.  We have no experts here.  We lose nothing, and we do not regret doing it just for fun when we have a successful week like the last one.

Don’t be like the poor soul that took his pickup truck in the high waters in South Carolina after failing to heed the warnings not to attempt to drive through the flooded street.  We cannot bail you out if your financial pickup truck takes on too much water and flips over.

Please read the above paragraphs once more before skipping down to this week’s picks.

Okay, here are this week’s Pretend Picks.  We are going with what worked last week and sort of worked the week before–13 straight side picks against the spread and four money line parlays where the odds give us a payout better than 1-1.

Straight Selections Against the Spread

10/8/2015      
Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Purdue Minnesota -2.5 Minnesota
Army Duke -12.5 Army
Iowa Illinois 11 Illinois
Northern Illinois Ball St. 10.5 Ball St.
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -15.5 Appalachian St.
Tennessee Georgia -2.5 Georgia
Michigan Northwestern 8 Northwestern
Houston Indianapolis -2.5 Indianapolis
Kansas City Chicago 10 Chicago
Cincinnati Seattle 3 Cincinnati
Oakland Denver -4.5 Denver
N.Y. Giants San Francisco 7 N.Y. Giants
San Diego Pittsburgh 3 San Diego

Money Line Parlays

Money Line Parlay 5 teams at 6-5   $216 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Oklahoma Texas   Oklahoma
Akron Eastern Michigan   Akron
Temple Tulane   Temple
Alabama Arkansas   Alabama
Oregon Washington St.   Oregon
       
Money Line Parlay 5 teams at 6-5   $222 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Notre Dame Navy   Notre Dame
Arizona St. Colorado   Arizona St.
Boise St. Colorado St.   Boise St.
Texas Tech Iowa St.   Texas Tech
Michigan St. Rutgers   Michigan St.
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 6-5   $218 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Baltimore Cleveland   Baltimore
Atlanta Washington   Atlanta
Green Bay St. Louis   Green Bay
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 3-2   $246 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
New England Dallas   New England
Denver Oakland   Denver
N.Y. Giants San Francisco   N.Y. Giants

September 10, 2015

Selections Against The Spread–September 10-14, 2015

It started out great for the PiRate Ratings last week, as we hit on both of our early games to begin the season at 2-0.  Saturday was the reverse of fortune, as we tripped up on all three selections to finish 2-3 for the first week.  Once again, we are going with five games.  This week, we selected three college games and two NFL games.  It might be noted that we were more in agreement on these five games this week than we were on last week’s games.  Take that for what it’s worth.  In the past, when we had one really good prognosticator, often he was right on a game, while the rest of us were wrong.

Remember this: these are free selections against the spread, and you are getting what you paid for.  We highly advise using our selections strictly for entertainment purposes.  You are free to reply to this post with your own picks, as long as your time stamp pre-dates the day of the game you select.  This is strictly for fun.

Here are our selections for the week of September 10-14, 2015.

Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Rutgers Washington St. 2.5 Rutgers
Ohio U Marshall -3 Marshall
Arkansas St. Missouri -10.5 Missouri
San Francisco Minnesota -2.5 49ers
Arizona New Orleans 1 Cardinals
 

January 29, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Simulator

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , — piratings @ 9:09 am

Thanks to finally gaining access to the simulator of a prestigious college computer lab, the PiRates have simulated Super Bowl XLIX 10,000 times.  Without further adieu, here are the key essential numbers.

 

Weather was input into the simulation.  We used the current forecast for Phoenix at the approximate time of halftime–64 degrees.  We used a 7 MPH wind from the Southeast with mostly cloudy skies and relative humidity of 60%.

 

10,000 Simulations (rounded to the nearest whole number)

New England Patriots Won 63%

Seattle Seahawks Won 37%

Average Margin of victory: New England by 2

Average Total Points Scored: 54

New England at -1 Covered the Spread: 59%

Seattle at +1 Covered the Spread: 37%

Push (NE won by 1): 4%

New England Won by 14 or more points: 7%

New England Won by 7-13 points: 17%

New England Won by 4-6 points: 21%

New England Won by 1-3 points: 18%

Seattle Won by 14 or more points: 2%

Seattle Won by 7-13 points: 8%

Seattle Won by 4-6 points: 11%

Seattle Won by 1-3 points: 16%

Game went Over 48 points: 56%

Game went Under 48 points: 40%

Game total exactly 48 %: 4%

Game Went to Overtime: 9% (This is rather high, but 896 of the 10,000 simulations showed the game going to overtime, and one simulation had the game going into the second period of OT.  Could we be looking at the first OT in Super Bowl history?  9% is still just one chance in 11, but there has not been a league championship game ending with overtime since the Dallas Texans defeated the Houston Oilers in the AFL Championship in the 1962 season, and not since the Baltimore Colts defeated the New York Giants in the NFL Championship in 1958.  That means 58 consecutive pro football championships have not ended in overtime. 

There have been a couple of very close finishes where the last play of the game stopped an overtime from happening in a Super Bowl.

Super Bowl V ended with Colts’ kicker Jim O’Brien connecting on the game-winning FG as the clock expired in what became known as the “Kick heard ’round the world.” 

 

Super Bowl XXXIV ended with Tennessee Titan receiver Derek Mason being stopped one yard short of the goal line with the St. Louis Rams up by seven.

 

November 7, 2013

PiRate Picks for November 6-11, 2013

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:01 pm

The saying goes that when picking football games against Las Vegas, the fools play the exotic wagers, while the smarts play the sides and totals.

We are the anti-fools here on the PiRate ship.  We tried our hand at going with mostly sides last week with nine selections, and we threw four exotic selections in as well.

The nine straight side selections went 2-7.  The four exotic selections finished 3-1.  We’ll let those with the sayings make their wagers, and we’ll go back to what has worked for us for the long term.

This week, we are picking no straight sides.  It’s all teasers and money line parlays.

1. 10-point Teaser

Oklahoma +26 vs. Baylor

Cincinnati +1 vs. SMU

Duke + ½ vs. North Carolina St.

 

2. 10-point Teaser

Missouri -4 vs. Kentucky

Florida Pk. vs. Vanderbilt

Colorado St. + ½ vs. Nevada

 

3. 10-point Teaser

USC -6 ½ vs. California

Central Florida – ½ vs. Houston

Alabama -2 ½ vs. L S U

 

4. 13-point Teaser

UL-Lafayette -1 vs. Troy

Iowa -2 vs. Purdue

Western Kentucky +7 ½ vs. Army

East Carolina -4 vs. Tulsa

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota +11 vs. Penn St.

North Carolina – ½ vs. Virginia

Wyoming +22 vs. Fresno St.

Ole Miss -4 vs. Arkansas

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Navy -4 vs. Hawaii

Notre Dame +8 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Arizona +14 vs. U C L A

San Jose St. +6 ½ vs. San Diego St.

 

7. Money Line Parlay @ -116

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

East Carolina over Tulsa

Navy over Hawaii

Ole Miss over Arkansas

North Carolina over Virginia

 

8. Money Line Parlay @ -102

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

Missouri over Kentucky

Alabama over L S U

Florida over Vanderbilt

 

9. Money Line Parlay @ -112

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

Colorado St. over Nevada

Auburn over Tennessee

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Washington +11 ½ vs. Minnesota

Tennessee +1 vs. Jacksonville

Philadelphia +14 vs. Green Bay

Indianapolis +3 ½ vs. St. Louis

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Seattle +7 ½ vs. Atlanta

Cincinnati +11 ½ vs. Baltimore

Detroit +13 vs. Chicago

Dallas +19 ½ vs. New Orleans

October 3, 2013

PiRate Picks for October 3-7, 2013

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:47 am

Going With The Flow

We have a nice little thing going and have not even noticed it when making our weekly selections.  Our PiRate Ratings have done quite well against the spread through four NFL weeks, coming in just under 60%.  Our Ratings for college are above the profit line of 52.4%, but there is no way this can be used.

 

So, we looked at the NFL games this week and chose eight contests where the PiRate Ratings differ from the line and where we also believed the PiRate Rating was the better predictive factor of the game.  It is not an exact science, and we really should just pick the entire 14 games as the PiRate Ratings see them, but we are having a little fun trying to raise that 60% to more than 62.5%, or the magical number used to get oneself banned from most books if it is routinely topped.

 

As for college, we have just one strategy doing well so far this season, and that has been the money line parlays.  We will throw three in for you to peruse.

 

1. Money Line Parlay @ -108

U C L A over Utah

Virginia Tech over North Carolina

 

2. Money Line Parlay @ -108

Oklahoma over TCU

Northern Illinois over Kent St.

Georgia over Tennessee

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ -114

Navy over Air Force

Boston College over Army

North Carolina St. over Wake Forest

 

N F L Straight Sides

 4. Tennessee +3 vs. Kansas City

 5. New England +2 vs. Cincinnati

 6. New Orleans Pk. vs. Chicago

 7. Carolina -2 vs. Arizona

 8. San Diego -4 vs. Oakland

 9. Denver -7 vs. Dallas

10. Houston +6 ½ vs. San Francisco

11. NY Jets +10 vs. Atlanta

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