The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 29, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 29, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Michigan St.

121.0

0.0

LSU

114.5

6.5

North Carolina

121.4

0.0

Auburn

115.9

5.5

Duke

122.4

0.0

Virginia Tech

115.4

7.0

Kentucky

118.3

0.0

Houston

116.0

2.3

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team

Team

TIME (EDT)

TV

LOCATION

LSU

Michigan St.

7:09 PM

CBS

Washington, D.C.

Auburn

N. Carolina

7:29 PM

TBS

Kansas City

Va. Tech

Duke

9:39 PM

CBS

Washington, D.C.

Houston

Kentucky

9:59 PM

TBS

Kansas City

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August 23, 2017

2017 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

The folks around the Atlantic Coast Conference have a decent case to support in the statement that their league, and not the Southeastern Conference, is the supreme college football conference in the land.  Clemson bested Alabama in the National Championship Game.  The ACC went 4-1 against the SEC in bowl games, and the ACC won 10 of 14 games overall against the SEC in 2016.  Five ACC teams finished the season in the top 25.

The 2017 season begins with the SEC just a tiny hair above the ACC in PiRate Ratings averages.  Early games between Alabama and Florida State, Tennessee and Georgia Tech, and Clemson and Auburn will go a long way in determining conference supremacy, and season ending games between Florida and Florida St. Georgia and Georgia Tech, and Louisville and Kentucky will seal the deal if one conference dominates the other.

This league has a little more depth this year.  It may be tougher for any team to go undefeated, as the team with the best quarterback, Louisville with Lamar Jackson, has an average at best defense.  Florida State has the next best quarterback in Deondre Francois, and the Seminoles have a nice stable of running backs.  However, there are some questions at wide receiver, and there could be depth issues in the offensive line.  Clemson still has the overall best combination of offensive and defensive lines, but the defending national champions must replace Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams on the attack side.  Figure CU to average about 10-14 fewer points per game.

While the top three in the Atlantic Division have exceptional talent but with some questions, the other four teams could all be better than last year, especially North Carolina State and Syracuse.

The Coastal Division race should be quite interesting.  Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and even Duke could challenge for the divisional flag.  The league could be just balanced enough so that no ACC team earns a Playoff bid.

Here is how the ACC Media voted in the preseason:

ACC Atlantic Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Florida St. 121 1,108 118
2 Clemson 37 1,007 35
3 Louisville 9 843 7
4 North Carolina St. 0 658 0
5 Wake Forest 0 415 0
6 Syracuse 0 362 0
7 Boston College 0 283 0
         
ACC Coastal Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Miami (Fla) 103 1,065 3
2 Virginia Tech 40 932 3
3 Georgia Tech 9 708 0
4 Pittsburgh 7 673 0
5 North Carolina 4 606 0
6 Duke 4 473 1
7 Virginia 0 219 0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings still show Clemson to be slightly better than Florida State in the initial ratings of the season.  However, the margin is razor thin, and we expect a lot of shuffling early in the season due to heavy schedules.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
         
ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8

Here are our unscientific won-loss predictions and bowl projections for the league.

Atlantic Coast Conference Projected Standings
Atlantic Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Florida St. 7-1 11-2 Peach
Clemson 6-2 10-2 Orange
Louisville 6-2 9-3 Belk
North Carolina St. 5-3 8-4 Sun
Syracuse 3-5 6-6 [Heart of Dallas]
Boston College 1-7 4-8  
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9  
       
Coastal Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Miami (Fla) 6-2 10-3 Music City
Virginia Tech 6-2 10-2 Camping World
Georgia Tech 5-3 8-4 Independence
North Carolina 3-5 7-5 Military
Duke 3-5 6-6 Quick Lane
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7  
Virginia 1-7 3-9  
Florida St. to win the ACC Championship Game
Notre Dame predicted to take ACC’s bid to the Pinstripe Bowl
Syracuse’s bid to Heart of Dallas Bowl is an at-large bid

Notre Dame qualifies for any ACC Bowl other than the Orange Bowl, if the Irish are within one win of the next available ACC team.  For instance, if Notre Dame goes 8-4, the Irish can leapfrog any 9-3 ACC team in an ACC Bowl.

Notre Dame can also qualify for the Orange Bowl as the replacement for the Big Ten or SEC team.

Later today: We will preview the Southeastern Conference in the afternoon (Eastern Time).  Can a West Division team dethrone Alabama?  Can any team from the West challenge for the SEC Championship?  Can more than one SEC team make this season’s playoffs?  Check back later today.

Coming Tomorrow: It is game week!  There are only five total games involving FBS teams, but it is real, and it counts.  So, we will debut our 2017 PiRate College Football Forecast.  We will show you all 130 teams ranked predictively and retrodictively, give you the spreads for the five games, and give you all of our bowl projections.

There will be no Money Line Parlay suggestions this week with so few games, but when we debut this feature next week, look for it on Friday morning.

 

November 3, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 3-7, 2016

Time to Punt
We thought we would be a bit clever and go with a slate of longshots that if just one selection won, it would be a big “fake” payout last week. Alas, we came up a game short in every selection, and none of the parlays cashed a winning ticket.

We also decided not to play any NFL parlays last week, and as luck would have it, most of the favorites won, and almost any parlay we might have played would have won. Such is life. But, even had every parlay we selected won last week, our bank account would have remained the same. As we try to make sure everybody reading this weekly entry, we do this just for fun and never wager a penny. These days, when it is almost time to ask, “Brother can you spare a dime,” betting anything on anything would be quite foolish. And, when happy days were here again way back when, we didn’t want to part with any of that hard-earned money. Thus, the only real advice we can give is, “work hard, be frugal, and save for the future.”

In past years, we have offered our predictions about a once-every-four-year event that happens the day following the first Monday in November. We are totally unsure of what will happen, next Tuesday, so we will not go there this year. Our hope is that whatever happens Tuesday, that the nation will come together and realize that we all must pull the rope from the same side and not against each other, or else we might lose what took 240 years to put together.

Now, returning to football and mathematics, here is what we are going with this week.

College Selections
We decided to select a couple of underdogs to win outright this week, but we did not bundle them together for the almost 6 to 1 odds. We’d rather guarantee a small profit if just one wins rather than a windfall requiring both to win.

1. Oklahoma State +133 vs. Kansas State.
Our members here believe this is a 50-50 tossup, so getting better than 13-10 odds is a plus in this game. Oklahoma State seems to play up to its competition, while Kansas State has been quiet this year and has not really played what many believe could be its best game. Also, when a team pulls off a big upset at home one week and then goes on the road to face a quality opponent the next week, the opponent usually has a better chance to win. That is why we believe the Money Line odds are so high, and because we believe this Cowboys’ team knows the Big 12 Championship is possible, we believe OSU will overcome the trend and win this one outright.

2. Arkansas +174 vs. Florida
Everything we just said about Oklahoma State could apply to Florida this week. The Gators come off a big win over rival Georgia and now go on the road to face a quality team. There are two differences in this selection from the selection above. Arkansas had a bye week last week, giving the Razorbacks two weeks to prepare for this game. Also, Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen is expected to be near 100% for this game after suffering a knee injury against Auburn two weeks ago. Arkansas needs an upset win in November to guarantee bowl eligibility, and we believe a team like Florida is vulnerable in this game. An Arky loss could mean the Hogs would be 5-6 when they go to Missouri in the final game.

3. 3-team parlay @ +121

Wyoming over Utah State
Colorado over UCLA
North Carolina over Georgia Tech

Wyoming beat Boise State last week in Laramie, and the Cowboys now have the Mountain Division title in their crosshairs after being the consensus choice to finish in last place. Coach Craig Bohl might be positioning himself to be a top candidate for some Power 5 conference job openings. In the past, numerous former Wyoming coaches have gone on to bigger and better things, because winning on a state with miles and miles of open space and few high school football programs says that this coach is a great recruiter, great organizer, and great leader.
Just down the road in Boulder, Mike MacIntyre has the Colorado Buffaloes within striking distance of winning the Pac-12 South Division. UCLA is a wounded bear and limping to the finish with what looks like a losing record this year. Josh Rosen’s season-ending injury seems like Deja vu for the men from Westwood, as just about every great quarterback since Gary Beban seems to have suffered an injury at some point. We’ll go with the Buffs to win big in Boulder in a prime-time Thursday night game.
North Carolina had an extra week to prepare for Georgia Tech’s spread option offense. That is worth an extra 7-10 points to the Tar Heel defense, and UNC doesn’t need that many extra points to make this a comfortable win for Coastal Division co-leader.

4. 4-team parlay @ +180

South Carolina over Missouri
Virginia Tech over Duke
Temple over Connecticut
BYU over Cincinnati
South Carolina coach Will Muschamp was barbecued for his job at Florida, and a lot of fans and media thought his hiring at South Carolina was a mistake. The Gamecocks were picked to finish in last place inthe SEC East and overall by many sources, yet it looks like USC will become bowl eligible rather than settle in last place. To get to six wins, a win over struggling Missouri is a must, and we think the Gamecocks are not too cocky approaching this game coming off the upset of Tennessee.

Virginia Tech probably must run the table in the ACC in November to win the Coastal Division, because North Carolina might not lose another conference game. The Hokies hold the tiebreaker, but it probably won’t matter if they are 6-2. Duke can still get a bowl bid, mostly because they hold the number one spot in APR scores and would be the first team in the 5-7 sweepstakes if 5-7 teams are needed to fill bowl spots (expect at least 1 if not 3 to 5). Tech is plain better in this game and should win by double digits.

Temple coach Matt Rhule is one of the 10 best college coaches in America, and a bigger fish will eventually offer him a large payday to become their coach. It could be that Rhule will hold out until a certain big state school in the Keystone State has a job opening (for awhile that appeared to be ready to happen in 2017). The Owls are back in control of the AAC East with wins over the top three contenders in the division. A win at U Conn this weekend basically wraps up the division title for the second consecutive year.

BYU travels to the Queen City to take on a Cincinnati team that has dissension, and when a team is not on the same page, they suffer results similar to what the Bearcats are experiencing this year. We’ll go with the school playing as a team to beat the maybe more talented team on their home field.

4. 3-team Parlay at +117

Penn State over Iowa
Old Dominion over Marshall
Tulsa over East Carolina
Penn State is still alive for the Rose Bowl! Who could have imagined this a month ago when Coach James Franklin was on a very hot seat and not looking all that happy to be in Happy Valley? A win over Ohio State was a major shot in the arm for this once great program trying to find its way back from purgatory. If the Nittany Lions run the table, which they are capable of doing, and if Michigan wins out and makes the College Football Playoffs, the Rose Bowl could easily select Penn State as its substitute. Of course, this means that the home team must defeat a so-so Iowa team that hasn’t played consistently well this year after a great 2015 season.

Old Dominion has not been to a bowl in its short time in FBS football, but that is going to change this year. The Monarchs need just one more win to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is very favorable for as many as nine wins overall and almost assuredly eight. Marshall is suffering through a rebuilding year at 2-6 and still must play the four best teams in the division. We like ODU to become bowl eligible this week.

Tulsa was a dark horse candidate in the AAC West in the preseason–not to win the division, but just to become bowl eligible for a second year in a row after finishing 6-7 last year. Having to face Ohio State, Houston, Memphis, Navy, and Central Florida on the road would leave the Golden Hurricanes in a precarious position where they would have to all their home games just to guarantee a repeat of 6-6 in the regular season. Coach Phillip Montgomery has quietly installed the spread offense he brought from Baylor and has TU in line to win the West after the Hurricanes knocked off Memphis at the Liberty Bowl last week. The closing schedule is difficult, and the big game at Navy looms next week. In order for that game to really matter, Tulsa must win this week over a rebuilding East Carolina team that will give TU all they can handle, because ECU still holds very slim chances of becoming bowl eligible, and at 3-5, they must win this game. We’ll go with the home team and their big play offense.

6. NFL 3-team Parlay at +178

Kansas City over Jacksonville
Dallas over Cleveland
New Orleans over San Francisco
The 2016 version of the NFL does not allow us (or anybody else) to state matter of factly that any team is a sure thing to beat their next opponent. So, we will not tell you that these three favorites are so much better than the underdogs they are playing that this is almost free money this week. With the way things are going in 2016, chances are rather high that one of these weaker underdogs will win at home.

Jacksonville looked like an expansion team against Tennessee a week ago, so the Jaguars will probably play their best game of the season this week. However, the Chiefs are starting to resemble their teams in the last couple years where they get better and better every week, and their defense is creating a lot of offense with their takeaways.

Dallas is only a slim favorite against winless Cleveland, even though the Cowboys currently hold the number one seed in the NFC! The only sure thing in Cleveland this year is that the Browns will use as many quarterbacks as Terry Francona used pitchers in the World Series.

San Francisco looked terrific in week one, shutting out the hapless Los Angeles Rams. Since then, they have looked worse than Cleveland, while the Rams find themselves in contention for the playoffs. New Orleans began the year looking the exact opposite–like a team destined to lose double-digit games and maybe bring on regime change in the Crescent City. Now, the Saints are breathing down the Falcons’ necks, and it figures that Drew Brees and company should win this game by double digits.

August 29, 2013

PiRate Football Picks For August 29 to September 2, 2013

PiRate Picks For August 29 to September 2, 2013

PiRate Business Card Picture 

Welcome back to the most popular weekly publication of the PiRate Ratings.  Last year, anywhere from 585 to 1,734 readers came by to peruse our picks, as we have become known for playing sweetheart teasers and moneyline parlays.

 

Our percentages were down a bit last year, but it was hard to go up after we cleaned up in 2011, winning the prestigious Prediction Tracker title for best record against the spread for our NFL games.  Our ratings are meant to be predictive in nature and not retrodictive, and we use these ratings as a starting point when we make our selections.

 

We did charge for these picks at one time, but in the last few years, we have made these available for free.  Remember, you get what you paid for, so if you have to mortgage your house to cover your losses, it is your fault and not ours.  Truth be told, none of us here ever bet on football games.  Our only wagers in the last ten years have been at horse tracks, where we concentrate on plain, everyday claiming and allowance races—never the big stakes and classics.

 

While we tend to gravitate toward 10 and 13-point sweetheart teasers and moneyline parlays, we also usually have a weekly theme based on certain trends we have noticed.  Obviously, this is the first week of actual games that count in the standings, and we leave preseason NFL games alone.  So, it is difficult to notice any trends.  Well, normally, it is difficult to notice any trends.  However, we have noticed what we believe is a major mistake in the opening games.  It is difficult to find much of a mistake, because smart money usually controls the movement of the lines.  The public usually then moves that line in the wrong direction, and the smarts profit from their ignorance.  Their specialty is playing both sides of a line that has moved by 2 points or more.  With a 10% vigorish, if you play both sides in a moved line, you only need to hit the middle ground one time in 19 to profit.  Here is how it works.

 

Let’s say Oklahoma opens as a 19-point favorite over Kansas.  The smarts believe this line is way too low and takes OU -19 placing truckloads of dough on the Sooners.  The line moves to -21 ½ a couple days later and stays there through Friday night.  Now, the smarts place the same amount of truckloads on Kansas +21 ½.

 

If the spread falls outside the 19 to 21 ½ range, the smarts win one wager and lose one wager.  They lose 10% vig only.  If the spread is exactly 19, then they win one wager and push on the other.  They turn a nice profit.  If the spread is 20 or 21 points (a frequent event), they win both wagers and bleed the books for multiple truckloads.  It is impossible to lose both wagers.  So, the possible results are 2-0, 1-0, and 1-1.  The only possible problem is if the line does not move in the direction they want it to move, and the result is still a 50-50 proposition (either win or lose the single wager).  So, if you want to be a success at this, look at the opening line and look at your favorite games where you believe the line will move.  Play ½ of what you plan to play on that game.  Then, watch that line.  If it moves in the direction you believe and crosses over the number 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, 17, 20, or 21, then play the other ½ of your amount on the other side

 

We believe we have noticed one line that is off to start the season.  It is not off by enough to play the game straight as a side.  No, where we like this game is in the money line.  Just like keying a horse with multiple horses in an exacta wager, we believe we can key this game with other games in multiple money line parlays.

 

The game in question is Colorado State versus Colorado.  Our ratings show that the Rams are vastly improved this year and should challenge for bowl eligibility under second year coach Jim McElwain.  CU starts over from scratch with new coach Mike MacIntyre.  We believe MacIntyre will turn things around in Boulder, but not in year one.  CSU won this game last year by five, and we believe they are a clear favorite with a 90% chance of winning.  The money line number is CSU -145, CU +125.

 

We only play the money line when we can get the number on the favorite side down to -120 or lower.  Obviously, -145 is too much of a gamble, but if we combine that game with other sure wins up to -1175 will allow us to play a 2-game parlay at -120 or lower.

 

We have chosen six different parlays this week where you can get -120 or better odds using Colorado State as one of the two money line winners.  If you play all six, you are taking a large risk.  We are showing the six that we like. Only choose what you can afford to risk.

 

Our other favorite play, the 13-point sweetheart teaser requires a 4-team parlay where you get to move the line by 13 points in your favor.  In NFL games, we like playing totals this way, but we do not like this philosophy for college games.  What we like for the opening week is the favorite getting an extra 13 points to bring the spread down to a better number and a game underdog getting double digit points in a game where they are no worse than a 7-10 point ‘dog in our eyes.  Any time we can get a 13 ½ point favorite to a ½ point favorite; a 15 ½ point favorite to 2 ½ point favorite; a 5 ½ point favorite to a 7 ½ point underdog; and other games where moving the spread crosses a frequent outcome spread, we give that game extra notice.  If we can take a minor underdog and move it to better than +14, +17, or +21, we give that a lot of notice.  And, when we can take a short favorite and turn them into a double-digit ‘dog, we definitely look at that game, because upsets are rarely by double digits.

 

At the end of this article, we will reveal our official picks (7) for this week.  First, let’s show you the four Colorado State parlays that are not our official picks, but are nevertheless good values in our opinion.  We cannot take the risk of playing six of these, so these are the three that did not make the final cut.

 

1. Colorado State over Colorado and Minnesota over UNLV at +103

2. Colorado State over Colorado and North Carolina St. over Louisiana Tech at +101

3. Colorado State over Colorado and Florida State over Pittsburgh at +111

 

Any of these three games can be wagered and if won will return more money than wagered.  For instance, if you bet $100 on parlay number 1 above, you will win $103 if the parlay wins but lose $100 if it loses.

 

We also take note of the games in which all three of our PiRate Ratings (Regular, Mean, and Bias) are on the same side of the line by 2 or more points difference from that line.

 

14 of this week’s college games meet that criterion

1. Ole Miss -3 vs. Vanderbilt

2. Rutgers +10 vs. Fresno St.

3. Southern Cal -22 ½ vs. Hawaii

4. Michigan State -28 vs. Western Michigan

5. Miami (Fl) -32 ½ vs. Florida Atlantic

6. Buffalo +35 ½ vs. Ohio St.

7. Maryland -20 vs. Florida International

8. Notre Dame -30 vs. Temple

9. BYU +1 vs. Virginia

10. Kentucky -5 vs. Western Kentucky

11. Washington St. +15 ½ vs. Auburn

12. Nebraska -29 vs. Wyoming

13. Washington -4 vs. Boise State

14. Northwestern -6 vs. California

 

If we further a criteria to where the above situation is met plus the total spread of the game is 14 or less points (10 or less if it were NFL), we come up with these six games that meet the criteria

 

1. Ole Miss -3 vs. Vanderbilt

2. Rutgers +10 vs. Fresno St.

3. BYU +1 vs. Virginia

4. Kentucky -5 vs. Western Kentucky

5. Washington -4 vs. Boise St.

6. Northwestern -6 vs. California

 

Okay, now for our official selections this week.  We are going with three money line parlays using Colorado State with another game, and we are going with four 13-point teasers.

 

1. Money Line Parlay at -116

Colorado State over Colorado

Louisville over Ohio U

 

2. Money Line Parlay at -105

Colorado State over Colorado

North Texas over Idaho

 

3. Money Line Parlay at -119

Colorado State over Colorado

Alabama over Virginia Tech

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota – ½ vs. UNLV

Central Florida -9 vs. Akron

Utah St. +15 ½ vs. Utah

Ole Miss +10 vs. Vanderbilt

 

5. 13-point Teaser

SMU +18 ½ vs. Texas Tech

Maryland -9 vs. Florida Int’l

Notre Dame -16 ½ vs. Temple

Alabama -7 vs. Virginia Tech

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Western Kentucky +18 vs. Kentucky

Marshall -6 ½ vs. Miami (O)

Oklahoma St. + ½ vs. Mississippi St.

Nebraska -16 ½ vs. Wyoming

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Georgia +11 ½ vs. Clemson

LSU +9 vs. TCU

Colorado St. +10 ½ vs. Colorado

Florida St. +2 vs. Pittsburgh

December 31, 2010

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Three

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the third preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from January 3 through The BCS Championship Game.   

 

Monday, January 3

Orange Bowl

Miami, FL

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Stanford (11-1)  vs.  Virginia Tech (11-2)

Vegas: Stanford by 3 ½

Totals: 58

PiRate: Stanford by 7.6

Mean: Stanford by 5.3

Bias: Stanford by 13.7

100 Sims: Stanford 77  Virginia Tech 23

Avg. Sim Score: Stanford 30.4  Virginia Tech 20.9

Outlier A: Stanford 45  Virginia Tech 19

Outlier B: Virginia Tech 33  Stanford 21

 

Tuesday, January 4

Sugar Bowl

New Orleans, LA

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Ohio State (11-1)  vs. Arkansas (10-2)

Vegas: Ohio State by 3 ½

Totals: 56 ½

PiRate: Ohio State by 3.6

Mean: Ohio State by 2.8

Bias: Arkansas by 4.1

100 Sims: Arkansas 54  Ohio State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Arkansas 26.3  Ohio State 23.7

Outlier A: Arkansas 34  Ohio State 14

Outlier B: Ohio State 27  Arkansas 16

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Mobile, AL

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Miami (Ohio) (9-4)  vs. Middle Tennessee (6-6)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 48 ½

PiRate: Miami (O) by 7.8

Mean: Miami (O) by 6.2

Bias: Miami (O) by 9.7

100 Sims: Miami (O) 64  Middle Tennessee 36

Avg. Sim Score: Miami (O) 35.1  Middle Tennessee 26.5

Outlier A: Miami (O) 41  Middle Tennessee 20

Outlier B: Middle Tennessee 34  Miami (O) 20

 

Friday, January 7

Cotton Bowl

Arlington, TX

8:00 PM EST on Fox Network

L S U (10-2)  vs. Texas A&M (9-3)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 49

PiRate: Texas A&M by 1.8

Mean: L S U by 1.0

Bias: Texas A&M by 6.6

100 Sims: L S U 53  Texas A&M 47

Avg. Sim Score: L S U 25.5  Texas A&M 25.1

Outlier A: L S U 30  Texas A&M 13

Outlier B: Texas A&M 28  LSU 17

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl

Birmingham, AL

12 Noon EST on ESPN

Pittsburgh (7-5)  vs.  Kentucky (6-6)

Vegas: Pittsburgh by 3 ½

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 4.8

Mean: Pittsburgh by 4.7

Bias: Kentucky by 5.6

100 Sims: Pittsburgh 62  Kentucky 38

Avg. Sim Score: Pittsburgh 19.8  Kentucky 16.9

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 27  Kentucky 7

Outlier B: Kentucky 23  Pittsburgh 10

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM EST on ESPN

Nevada (12-1)  vs. Boston College (7-5)

Vegas: Nevada by 7 ½

Totals: 55

PiRate: Nevada by 12.9

Mean: Nevada by 12.4

Bias: Nevada by 5.3

100 Sims: Nevada 70  Boston College 30

Avg. Sim Score: Nevada 31.8  Boston College 23.6

Outlier A: Nevada 48  Boston College 25

Outlier B: Boston College 31  Nevada 24 (two times)

 

Monday, January 10

B C S  Championship Game

Glendale, AZ

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Oregon (12-0)  vs.  Auburn (13-0)

Vegas: Auburn by 2 ½

Totals: 74 ½

PiRate: Oregon by 7.8

Mean: Oregon by 2.4

Bias: Oregon by 9.6

100 Sims: Oregon 64  Auburn 36

Avg. Sim Score: Oregon 43.6  Auburn 36.9

Outlier A: Oregon 51  Auburn 32

Outlier B: Auburn 44  Oregon 38 (three others by 6)

8 simulations went to overtime, with Oregon winning seven of those games

December 27, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Semifinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—The Final Four

 

You are looking live at the College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.  Last week in the quarterfinals, Auburn beat Arkansas, Wisconsin edged Stanford, Oregon trounced Boise State, and Ohio State bested TCU.

 

For those of you that did not read our features from the previous two weeks, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began two weeks ago with four games being played.  The quarterfinals ran last Monday; today, the semifinals run, and next Monday, January 3, the Championship Game, called “The Simper Bowl,” will run.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games, and Auburn, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Ohio State advanced to today’s semifinal games. 

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.  They were extremely close today.  In the Orange Bowl, 88 sims were decided by five points or less.  In the Rose Bowl, all 100 sims were decided by single digits, and 17 went to overtime!

 

 

Orange Bowl

#1 Auburn vs. #5 Wisconsin

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 40.6  Auburn 38.7

Wisconsin wins: 53

Auburn wins: 47

 

Outlier A: Wisconsin 48  Auburn 36

Outlier B: Auburn 42  Wisconsin 29

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-248  pass-177

Average Auburn Yards: rush-208  pass-211

 

Rose Bowl

#2 Oregon vs. #6 Ohio State

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.9  Oregon 24.8

Ohio State wins: 50

Oregon wins: 50

Outlier A: Ohio State 45  Oregon 37 3ot

Outlier B: Oregon 30  Ohio State 21

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-183  pass-179

Average Oregon Yards: rush-186  pass-180

 

 

Simper Bowl IV is set.  Congratulations to the Big Ten Conference for landing both championship game participants.  Wisconsin will play Ohio State for all the marbles, and you can see the results next Monday in play-by-play format.

 

The format for the championship game will be different.  We will simulate this game 100 times to discover the winner of the game to determine the winner.  Then, we will simulate it again as many times as needed for the winner to come up with another win.  The first simulation past number 100 that shows our 100-game simulation as the winner will be the official Simper Bowl results.  Since we will give you the results in a play-by-play format, if you do not peak at the bottom, you can follow the action as if you are seeing it unfold live, sort of.

 

For example, let’s say we were simulating 2009 Alabama against 2008 Florida.  Let’s say that Alabama wins the 100 simulations by a margin of 52 to 48.  We will then simulate this game again and again until the result shows Alabama winning and take that first simulation from #101 on that shows Alabama winning as the game result.

 

So, come by this website next Monday afternoon, January 3, 2011, for Simper Bowl IV.

 

Happy New Years to all, and please be responsible Friday night.  Don’t miss 2011 because you were ignorant on the last day of 2010.

December 20, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Quarterfinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—Quarterfinal Round

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.

 

For those of you that did not read our feature from last week, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began last Monday with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run today; the semifinals run next Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game will run on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games. 

 

Here are the matchups for today’s quarterfinal round.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.

 

 

Sugar Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

 

WINNER: AUBURN

 

Average Score: Auburn 44.6  Arkansas 23.9

Auburn wins: 93

Arkansas wins: 7

Outlier A: Auburn 59  Arkansas 17

Outlier B: Arkansas 49  Auburn 42 2OT

Average Auburn Yards: rush-231  pass-280

Average Arkansas Yards: rush-108  pass-271

 

Cotton Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.3  Stanford 36.1

Wisconsin wins: 59

Stanford: 41

Outlier A: Wisconsin 51  Stanford 30

Outlier B: Stanford 40  Wisconsin 27

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-251  pass-208

Average Stanford Yards: rush-106  pass-311

 

Fiesta Bowl

#10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

 

WINNER: OREGON

 

Average Score: Oregon 50.6  Boise State 31.7

Oregon wins: 88

Boise State wins: 12

Outlier A: Oregon 56  Boise State 16

Outlier B: Boise State 48  Oregon 35

Average Oregon Yards: rush-307  pass-277

Average Boise State Yards: rush-133  pass-299

 

Capital One Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 19.7  T C U 14.4

Ohio State wins: 60

T C U: 40

Outlier A: Ohio State 28  T C U 6

Outlier B: T C U 20  Ohio State 7

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-147  pass-155

Average T C U Yards: rush-97  pass-146

 

The semifinal round is set.  In the Orange Bowl, top-seeded Auburn takes on number five seed Wisconsin.  In the Rose Bowl, number two seed Oregon faces number six seed Ohio State.  Have a Merry Christmas, and we will see you next Monday with the new results.

December 13, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

Can Boise State defend their Simper Bowl title from last season?  Will Auburn and Oregon make it to the title game?  Is there a dark horse team that can emerge like Butler in basketball?

 

Let’s get started with the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for four and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in “Simper Bowl III.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State, as the teams played to a 10-10 tie in regulation before Boise won in six overtimes 39-37.

 

Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls, 38-24 over Oklahoma in Simper Bowl I and 27-23 over Florida in Simper Bowl II.

 

Our simulated playoffs have 12 teams.  We take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and award them automatic bids.  We then take all other conference champions that finish in the top 12 of the BCS and award them automatic bids.  We then select the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and award at-large bids until we have our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams are then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds receive first round byes as a reward.  We also limit to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we need 11 games.  So, we use the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round begins today with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run next Monday; the semifinals on Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we are changing our format.  We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinals

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Arkansas or Michigan State

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Wisconsin or Connecticut

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Oklahoma or Boise State

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Ohio State or Virginia Tech

 

Semifinals

Orange Bowl: Winners of the Sugar and Cotton Bowls

Rose Bowl: Winners of the Fiesta and Capital One Bowls

 

Simper Bowl IV—The National Championship Game

Orange Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner

 

Are you ready?  Here are the results of the first round games.

 

Outback Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

WINNER: ARKANSAS

 

Average Score: Arkansas 30.4  Michigan State 27.6

Arkansas wins: 59

Michigan State wins: 41

Outlier A: Arkansas 44  Michigan State 17

Outlier B: Michigan State 37  Arkansas 20

Arkansas Avg Yards: rush-113  pass-274

Michigan State Avg Yards: rush-144  pass-228

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.7  Connecticut 22.6

Wisconsin wins: 94

Connecticut wins: 6

Outlier A: Wisconsin 61  Connecticut 13

Outlier B: Connecticut 33  Wisconsin 28

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-246  pass-234

Average Connecticut Yards: rush-153  pass-159

 

Insight Bowl

#7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

 

WINNER: BOISE STATE

 

Average Score: Boise State 37.3  Oklahoma 29.2

Boise State wins: 66

Oklahoma wins: 34

Outlier A: Boise State 41  Oklahoma 20

Outlier B: Oklahoma 34  Boise State 26

Average Boise State Yards: rush-157  pass-269

Average Oklahoma Yards: rush-128  pass-249

 

Alamo Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.0  Virginia Tech 18.7

Ohio State wins: 68

Virginia Tech: 32

Outlier A: Ohio State 37  Virginia Tech 10

Outlier B: Virginia Tech 24  Ohio State 17

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-151  pass-177

Average Virginia Tech Yards: rush-111  pass-149

 

 

The quarterfinal round is now set and will be played next Monday, December 20.  Here is the schedule.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

December 6, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 132.5 12 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Auburn 131.0 13 0
5 Boise State 128.8 11 1
6 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
7 Oklahoma 127.7 11 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 124.2 11 2
12 Florida State 119.8 9 4
13 South Carolina 119.4 9 4
14 Nebraska 118.9 10 3
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 117.0 9 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Nevada 115.7 12 1
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Florida 115.3 7 5
23 Missouri 115.2 10 2
24t Arizona 115.2 7 5
24t Iowa 115.2 7 5
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-4 119.8
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 11-2 124.2
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 5-2 9-3 117.0
Pittsburgh 5-2 7-5 110.7
Connecticut 5-2 8-4 108.0
South Florida 3-4 7-5 106.9
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-5 4-8 100.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-6 4-8 89.5

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Illinois 4-4 6-6 104.4
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-3 118.9
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 11-2 127.7
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 10-3 102.9
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-6 92.7
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   7-5 108.9
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Miami (O) 7-1 9-4 90.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-3 104.1
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-11 80.4
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 9-0 12-0 132.5
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-5 7-5 115.2
Southern Cal 5-4 8-5 112.0
Arizona St. 4-5 6-6 111.0
Oregon St. 4-5 5-7 109.6
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 5-4 6-6 107.1
U C L A 2-7 4-8 101.8
Washington State 1-8 2-10 94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-4 119.4
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 13-0 131.0
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-2 6-6 87.0
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 6-2 7-5 85.8
Middle Tennessee 5-3 6-6 82.8
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
Florida Atlantic 3-5 4-8 73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 7-1 11-1 128.8
Nevada 7-1 12-1 115.9
Hawaii 7-1 10-3 108.9
Fresno State 5-3 8-4 98.2
Louisiana Tech 4-4 5-7 93.0
Idaho 3-5 6-7 88.1
Utah State 2-6 4-8 88.0
San Jose State 0-8 1-12 78.5
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Navy Army (Philadelphia) 14.4 31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Navy Army  (Philadelphia) 31-23 27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

November 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 131.9 11 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Boise State 130.6 10 1
5 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
6 Auburn 127.5 12 0
7 Oklahoma 127.1 10 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 123.1 10 2
12 South Carolina 122.9 9 3
13 Florida State 120.9 9 3
14 Nebraska 119.5 10 2
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 116.8 8 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Arizona 116.3 7 4
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Nevada 115.3 11 1
23 Florida 115.3 7 5
24 Missouri 115.2 10 2
25 Iowa 115.2 7 5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-3 120.9
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
Coastal Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 10-2 123.1
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0
 

Big East Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 4-2 8-3 116.8
Pittsburgh 4-2 6-5 108.6
Connecticut 4-2 7-4 107.6
South Florida 3-3 7-4 107.3
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-4 4-7 102.8
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-5 4-7 89.7
 

Big Ten

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1
 

Big 12

North Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-2 119.5
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
South Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 10-2 127.1
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4
 

Conference USA

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 9-3 103.2
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-5 92.4
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6
 

Independents

Team Overall Rating
Notre Dame 7-5 108.9
Navy 8-3 102.6
Army 6-5 88.2
 

Mid American Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Miami (O) 7-1 8-4 87.8
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-2 106.9
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9
 

Mountain West Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-10 82.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2
 

Pac-10 Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 8-0 11-0 131.9
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-4 7-4 116.3
Southern Cal 4-4 7-5 111.0
Oregon St. 4-4 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 3-5 5-6 109.9
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 4-4 5-6 106.9
U C L A 2-6 4-7 102.8
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4
 

Southeastern Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-3 122.9
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 12-0 127.5
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1
 

Sunbelt Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-1 6-5 88.4
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 5-2 6-5 82.8
Middle Tennessee 4-3 5-6 81.4
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Florida Atlantic 3-4 4-7 76.7
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
 

Western Athletic Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-1 10-1 130.6
Nevada 6-1 11-1 115.3
Hawaii 7-1 9-3 106.8
Fresno State 5-3 7-4 97.5
Louisiana Tech 4-3 5-6 93.6
Idaho 2-5 5-7 89.3
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-7 1-11 77.3
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9
 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARIZONA Arizona St. 8.9 31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Illinois FRESNO STATE 4.1 31-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)   (Detroit) 19.1 42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Southern Cal U C L A 6.2 34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 2.7 20-17
Oregon OREGON STATE 18.7 45-26
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 10.0 31-21
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 30.1 42-12
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 2.8 24-21
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 10.0 34-24
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.1 30-27
BOISE STATE Utah State 47.4 61-14
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 18.2 35-17
IDAHO San Jose State 14.5 38-23
HAWAII U n l v 28.3 49-21
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 4.6 35-30
Virginia Tech Florida State (Charlotte) 2.2 25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 13.8 35-21
Oklahoma Nebraska (Dallas) 7.6 21-13
 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARIZONA Arizona St. 31-21 27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Illinois FRESNO STATE 34-31 34-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)  (Detroit) 35-24 41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Southern Cal U C L A 31-21 30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 27-24 27-23
Oregon OREGON STATE 49-26 51-19
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 35-27 35-20
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 34-14 34-14
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 34-22 28-26
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-24 34-28
BOISE STATE Utah State 56-20 59-17
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 37-17 35-31
IDAHO San Jose State 42-24 45-28
HAWAII U n l v 49-20 48-14
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 38-24 34-24
Virginia Tech Florida State  (Charlotte) 26-25 27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 34-26 35-30
Oklahoma Nebraska  (Dallas) 21-16 22-20
 

Bowl Projections

Bowl

Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) B Y U 6-6 WAC (#3?) Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 Miami (O) 8-5 WAC #(1) or 2 Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 S. D. State 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Louisville 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 Notre Dame 7-5 ACC #3 N. C. State 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Boston Coll. 7-5 C-USA #6 E C U 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Penn State 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Oklahoma St. 10-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 S M U 7-6 MWC #3-5/Army Army 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 7-5 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 8-4
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 8-4 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 Miami (FL) 7-5 Pac 10 #4 [Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #2 Florida State 9-4
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 7-5
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. 11-1 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Illinois 7-5 SEC #6 Florida 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 T C U 12-0 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Stanford 11-1
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large West Va. 9-3
Sugar BCS SEC Ohio State 11-1 BCS At-Large Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 7-5 MAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Nebraska 10-3 SEC #3-6 W Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Pittsburgh 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Temple 8-4] WAC #1 Nevada 11-1
Championship Game *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team
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