PiRate Ratings Bracketology Late Night Update–March 10-11 , 2018

The Bracket Gurus are burning the midnight oil and pouring more coffee as they try to determine who the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee will invite into the Dance, and who will not hear the phone ring on Sunday.

At this point last year, most of the gurus were 100% in agreement on about 66 teams with only three teams really fighting for the final two spots.

There is a bit more dissension this season.  There are six teams seriously in the final discussion for three spots, but this will all change is Davidson beats Rhode Island on Sunday.  The Gurus are 100% in agreement in their belief that St. Bonaventure is in, so the Atlantic 10 could move from two to three teams if the Wildcats upset the Rams.

The teams that need to be worried about Davidson winning include Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Saint Mary’s, Louisville, and Middle Tennessee State.  The Gurus are close to eliminating Marquette, Baylor, and Syracuse, but these teams still appear on exactly one Guru list (three different Gurus have one each of the three).

Check back tomorrow after the conclusion of the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.  Within about 30 minutes of the outcome, we will publish our final Bracket Gurus report in full.  The pressure is on our Gurus.  Last year, they correctly picked all 68 teams in the field, and also correctly picked 61 teams on the correct seed line or just one seed off.

Teams In The Field as of Saturday Night, 11:59 PM EST

Team	Bid	Conf.	W-L
Bucknell	AUTO	Patriot	25-9
Buffalo	AUTO	MAC	26-8
Charleston	AUTO	CAA	26-7
Gonzaga	AUTO	WCC	30-4
Iona	AUTO	MAAC	20-13
Kansas	AUTO	B12	27-7
Lipscomb	AUTO	A-SUN	23-9
Long Island	AUTO	NEC	18-16
Loyola (Chi.)	AUTO	MVC	28-5
Marshall	AUTO	CUSA	24-10
MD-Baltimore Co.	AUTO	AE	24-10
Michigan	AUTO	BTen	28-7
Montana	AUTO	BSky	26-7
Murray St.	AUTO	OVC	26-5
New Mexico St.	AUTO	WAC	28-5
Radford	AUTO	B-South	22-12
San Diego St.	AUTO	MWC	22-10
South Dakota St.	AUTO	Summit	28-6
Stephen F. Austin	AUTO	SLC	28-6
Texas Southern	AUTO	SWAC	15-19
UNC-Central	AUTO	MEAC	19-15
UNC-Greensboro	AUTO	SoCon	27-7
Villanova	AUTO	BE	30-4
Virginia	AUTO	ACC	31-2
Wright St.	AUTO	Horizon	25-9

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PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for February 3-4, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

For Multi-Bid  Leagues

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Connecticut	Cincinnati	-13.7
Central Florida	Houston	-3.0
East Carolina	Memphis	-6.4
St. John’s	Duke	-11.4
North Carolina St.	Notre Dame	0.6
Wake Forest	Clemson	-4.1
Virginia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	3.1
Syracuse	Virginia	-6.7
Louisville	Florida St.	3.3
North Carolina	Pittsburgh	21.9
Kansas	Oklahoma St.	13.8
TCU	Texas Tech	1.7
West Virginia	Kansas St.	8.4
Texas	Oklahoma	1.2
Baylor	Iowa St.	8.6
Butler	DePaul	12.9
Marquette	Providence	4.9
Xavier	Georgetown	15.4
Michigan	Minnesota	9.7
Rutgers	Purdue	-16.9
Penn St.	Iowa	6.7
Indiana	Michigan St.	-10.2
Wyoming	Fresno St.	1.6
San Jose St.	New Mexico	-9.0
Boise St.	UNLV	6.3
Colorado St.	Nevada	-13.3
San Diego St.	Air Force	18.2
Stanford	Oregon	-0.5
UCLA	USC	1.4
California	Oregon St.	-4.2
Washington	Arizona	-5.8
Missouri	Kentucky	1.6
Texas A&M	South Carolina	8.3
LSU	Arkansas	0.2
Florida	Alabama	7.6
Tennessee	Ole Miss	12.1
Mississippi St.	Georgia	2.8
Auburn	Vanderbilt	12.8
Portland	Loyola Marymount	1.1
San Diego	Saint Mary’s	-8.3
Gonzaga	BYU	12.1
Pepperdine	Pacific	-6.1
Santa Clara	San Francisco	-4.1

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
South Florida	Tulsa	-9.8
Tulane	Temple	-2.1
Boston College	Georgia Tech	5.7
Villanova	Seton Hall	14.0
Ohio St.	Illinois	11.7
Maryland	Wisconsin	9.7
Washington St.	Arizona St.	-9.5

Note: As of last night’s games, with both Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky winning big road contests, Conference USA actually moved into multi-bid league status.  We apologize for not including CUSA games in this week’s preview, but if both MTSU and WKU win this weekend and mid-week, then CUSA will be included in next Friday’s preview.

Additionally, Boise State fell from at-large status into one of the First Four out, so the Mountain West Conference should not be included as a multiple bid league.  The update occurred after this week’s games had been rated and placed in our database.  If the MWC is still just a one for sure bid league next Friday, we will remove it from our preview, thus trading CUSA for MWC.  If neither or both leagues remain in the multiple bid leagues, we will cancel both or include both in next Friday’s preview, depending on the outcomes through next Thursday night.

The PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank	Team	PiRate	Conf.
1	Villanova	122.2	BIGE
2	Purdue	121.4	BTEN
3	Duke	120.2	ACC
4	Virginia	119.2	ACC
5	Michigan St.	118.9	BTEN
6	Kansas	117.5	B12
7	Cincinnati	117.4	AAC
8	Gonzaga	116.0	WCC
9	Xavier	115.2	BIGE
10	North Carolina	115.1	ACC
11	Auburn	114.9	SEC
12	Tennessee	114.8	SEC
13	West Virginia	114.4	B12
14	Texas Tech	114.4	B12
15	Wichita St.	114.2	AAC
16	Creighton	113.5	BIGE
17	Ohio St.	113.4	BTEN
18	Arizona	113.1	PAC12
19	TCU	113.1	B12
20	Saint Mary’s	112.9	WCC
21	Oklahoma	112.9	B12
22	Clemson	112.8	ACC
23	Nevada	112.4	MWC
24	Butler	112.4	BIGE
25	Florida St.	112.4	ACC

PiRate Ratings By Power Conference

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Cincinnati	117.4	AAC
Wichita St.	114.2	AAC
Houston	110.3	AAC
SMU	109.4	AAC
Temple	105.3	AAC
UCF	104.3	AAC
Tulsa	102.3	AAC
Tulane	100.2	AAC
Memphis	100.0	AAC
Connecticut	99.7	AAC
East Carolina	90.6	AAC
South Florida	89.5	AAC
Duke	120.2	ACC
Virginia	119.2	ACC
North Carolina	115.1	ACC
Clemson	112.8	ACC
Florida St.	112.4	ACC
Louisville	111.7	ACC
Miami FL	111.4	ACC
Virginia Tech	111.0	ACC
Notre Dame	110.8	ACC
Syracuse	108.5	ACC
North Carolina St.	107.4	ACC
Boston College	105.5	ACC
Wake Forest	105.2	ACC
Georgia Tech	103.3	ACC
Pittsburgh	96.7	ACC
Kansas	117.5	B12
West Virginia	114.4	B12
Texas Tech	114.4	B12
TCU	113.1	B12
Oklahoma	112.9	B12
Texas	110.6	B12
Kansas St.	110.0	B12
Baylor	109.9	B12
Oklahoma St.	107.2	B12
Iowa St.	104.8	B12
Villanova	122.2	BIGE
Xavier	115.2	BIGE
Creighton	113.5	BIGE
Butler	112.4	BIGE
Seton Hall	111.7	BIGE
Marquette	109.1	BIGE
Providence	107.7	BIGE
St. John’s	105.3	BIGE
Georgetown	103.3	BIGE
DePaul	102.5	BIGE
Purdue	121.4	BTEN
Michigan St.	118.9	BTEN
Ohio St.	113.4	BTEN
Michigan	112.2	BTEN
Maryland	110.7	BTEN
Penn St.	109.1	BTEN
Nebraska	107.3	BTEN
Northwestern	107.2	BTEN
Minnesota	106.0	BTEN
Iowa	105.4	BTEN
Illinois	105.2	BTEN
Indiana	105.2	BTEN
Wisconsin	105.0	BTEN
Rutgers	101.5	BTEN
Nevada	112.4	MWC
Boise St.	108.9	MWC
San Diego St.	107.8	MWC
UNLV	105.6	MWC
Fresno St.	104.8	MWC
New Mexico	102.4	MWC
Wyoming	102.4	MWC
Utah St.	101.3	MWC
Colorado St.	96.1	MWC
Air Force	93.1	MWC
San Jose St.	90.4	MWC
Arizona	113.1	PAC12
Arizona St.	111.1	PAC12
USC	109.7	PAC12
UCLA	108.1	PAC12
Oregon	107.6	PAC12
Utah	106.9	PAC12
Washington	103.8	PAC12
Stanford	103.6	PAC12
Colorado	102.7	PAC12
Oregon St.	102.7	PAC12
Washington St.	98.6	PAC12
California	95.0	PAC12
Auburn	114.9	SEC
Tennessee	114.8	SEC
Florida	112.3	SEC
Kentucky	112.0	SEC
Texas A&M	111.3	SEC
Arkansas	110.3	SEC
Missouri	110.1	SEC
Alabama	108.2	SEC
Georgia	107.2	SEC
Mississippi St.	107.0	SEC
LSU	107.0	SEC
South Carolina	106.5	SEC
Mississippi	106.2	SEC
Vanderbilt	105.6	SEC
Gonzaga	116.0	WCC
Saint Mary’s	112.9	WCC
BYU	107.4	WCC
San Diego	101.6	WCC
San Francisco	99.5	WCC
Pacific	98.9	WCC
Loyola Marymount	94.7	WCC
Portland	92.8	WCC
Santa Clara	92.4	WCC
Pepperdine	89.8	WCC

The PiRates Are Adjusting How We Look For Buried Treasure

The PiRate Ratings began and operated for years as a college and pro football prediction establishment.  The ratings themselves began in October of 1969 and have operated continuously since.  In 1978-79, basketball ratings were added, and from 1980-2009, the PiRates did some horse racing prognosticating.  In all this time, however, it was an added filler that actually became our most patronized product we have publicly issued, be it in print or radio.

Our March Madness Bracket Picking guides have annually dwarfed all others, be it in the number of readers to this site, the number of responses from our historic newspaper presence, or the number of responses to our historic radio presence (and in one case to our sponsor, when one team’s fans threatened to boycott the adult beverage because our leader picked their rival to win the rivalry game).

We back-tested all the past Final Four and National Champions for the years where we had statistical data to identify the fingerprint statistics that might help us forecast future Final Four and National Championship teams.  We identified some consistent stats and discovered that some stats had little or no bearing.

For instance, we discovered that for most years, teams that scored a very high percentage of their points at the foul line tended to lose with more frequency as the rounds progressed.  We surmised that a lesser number of fouls were called in the bigger games, and the teams that got this far that were not great foul shooting teams got to where they were because they were dominant in other areas.  It just so happened that these other areas were the consistent ones that produced the champions.

We wanted to come up with a statistic that could be used to represent what has helped teams dominate in NCAA Tournament play.  We began refining this data over the years.

When our captain became a baseball metric specialist and started researching advanced analytics, he learned what many others had already learned.  What may work to determine the regular season division winners may not work in the playoffs.  Oakland Athletics’ General Manager Billy Beane was quoted as saying (expletive altered), “My stuff doesn’t work in the playoffs.”

Beane was onto something, or in other words, it was plain to see that Oakland’s “Moneyball” ways produced 100-wins in the regular season, but it did not work in the playoffs, since the Athletics never won the pennant.  Forget for a minute that his predecessor Sandy Alderson actually began the advanced statistical age in Oakland, and he won three consecutive AL Pennants using a computer program to help determine some strategies.  Let’s look at why Moneyball issues do not work in the playoffs.

1. On base percentage is superior to batting average, but in order to draw walks, the pitcher must throw pitches outside the strike zone.  In 130 out of 162 regular season games, a team might face pitching that would throw enough balls outside of the strike zone to walk four times per game.  However, in the playoffs, this team is more likely to face pitchers like Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Carlos Carrasco, Clayton Kershaw, and Steven Strasburg.  These guys will paint the corners and force batters to either swing or walk back to the dugout rather than to first base.
2. The sacrifice hit, hit and run, stolen base, and taking an extra base on singles and doubles may not be the most intelligent way to score runs in the regular season when again, 130 out of 162 games may present better ways to score runs by getting men on and hitting three-run homers.  However, try to wait for that three-run homer against Strasburg, Kluber, Sale, or Carrasco and see how far that gets you.  You are likely to lose 3-2 more than get that three-run tater.  Many people understand that giving up one of just 27 outs to advance a runner one base is foolish–most of the time.  If you are playing for one run in the eighth or ninth inning and have a runner on 2nd with no outs, it is the right thing to do to bunt the runner over to third.  Also, when the batter is facing a dominant pitcher, and the expected on base average for this batter against this pitcher is far south of what his normal OBA is, then it may also be the smarter option to bunt a runner up a base rather than risk a non-productive out or worse a GIDP.
3. Relief pitching changes in the playoffs, especially the World Series.  In actuality, managers more intelligently use their best reliever when leverage is the highest, even if that is with two outs in the fifth inning.  Rather than bring in the top ace to protect a 3-run lead in the ninth, managers are more likely to use that ace in a one-run game in earlier innings.  Under Beane in the height of the Moneyball years where the A’s made the playoffs and lost, Oakland never invested a lot in a true stopper.  The numbers said that just about any above-average reliever could get 35 saves coming into the game in the ninth inning protecting a two or three-run lead.  In the playoffs, when Oakland needed the next Rollie Fingers, Paul Lindblad, Bob Locker, or Darold Knowles, or the next Dennis Eckersley, and they needed that stopper to stop a rally in the 6th inning, he wasn’t on the roster.

What does this have to do with March Madness, you may ask?  Plenty, we respond.  In basketball, the Four Factors have come to represent some of the best statistical analysis that can reveal the superior teams over the inferior teams.  During the regular season, these stats may show that State U is a top 25 team and should be no worse than a 5-seed in the Big Dance.  Then, this team gets a 4 or 5-seed in the tournament and goes up against a 12 or 13-seed that dominated a mid-major conference during the regular season.  This underdog possesses some of the dominating stats that work in the tournament, while the big team from the big conference does not.  And, lo and behold, the underdog upsets the favorite, making the sports media talk about how so many 12-seeds beat 5-seeds, like it is a curse.

Never once did these media experts consider that the reason the 12-seeds beat the 5-seeds much more often than normal is because these 12-seeds would beat these 5-seeds 7 times out of 10.  In other words, they are not really upsets.  They are indicators that the people that set the seeds are doing a poor job.

So, by now, you must be anxious to see what these special stats are that help us determine what works in the playoffs.  The answer is: The PiRate R+T Rating.

Huh?  What is the R+T Rating?  If you have followed our site for a long enough time, you have seen the R+T used since the 2000 NCAA Tournament.  It has been refined through the years, sort of like how weighted on-base average goes through refinements based on each season’s environments.

At the present time, our R+T rating is:

(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T

R = Rebounding Margin per game

S = Average Steals per game

T= Turnover Margin per game

This formula translates into the number of extra scoring opportunities a team should be expected to gain over an average team.  It took hours of backtesting to refine it to the point where the result represented a real number that estimated the number of “cheap” points a team might be expected to receive over an average team.

It looks simple enough. If one team has a large rebounding edge in a game, they will benefit with an extra number of shots.  Depending on whether the advantage is at the offensive or defensive end, or both, limiting shots to one per possession and getting putbacks on the offensive end can create spurts in games that turn close contests into blowouts.

Turnover margin is not as important as rebounding margin except for when the turnover comes by way of a steal.  If the opponent turns the ball over due to travelling or stepping out of bounds or committing a charge, the opponent does not immediately see a benefit.  It ends the opponents’ possession, but it does not lead to fast break opportunities or the ability to tip the ball in the basket from a couple feet away.

When a team steals the ball, however, this is the absolute best extra possession.  Most steals come when the defense gains possession of the ball while their players are facing their basket, and the team turning the ball over has their back to that basket.  Almost all steals immediately present a number’s advantage for the team gaining possession.  If it is 2 on 1 or 3 on 2, this is like having a 3-0 count as a batter with the bases loaded.  Even if the steal results in a 2 on 2 or 3 on 3, the team with the ball has the advantage, since any even strength less than 5 on 5 favors the offense in basketball.

This is what the R+T represents.  A steal and rebound counts more than a turnover or lack of a turnover, but the turnover has value too.

How do we interpret R+T?  We have levels of interpretation.

If a team has an R+T rating of 20 or better, this is a potentially dangerous tournament team.  In a tight, evenly matched game, a team with a 20+ R+T rating has a huge advantage over a team with an average R+T rating.  At crunch time, a crucial steal or offensive rebound resulting in a basket can be the difference.

An R+T rating of 15-20 is a good rating, and a team with a rating in this range has Sweet 16 potential and maybe Elite 8 potential.

An R+T rating of 10-15 is average for an NCAA Tournament team.  Unless this team is outstanding in other areas such as field goal percentage margin, they probably do not have the necessary talent to make it past the Sweet 16.  There have been teams that made the Final Four with R+T ratings in  this range, but most of the time, they got there because they played opponents with even weaker R+T ratings.

An R+T rating in the 5-10 range might win a game or even sneak into the Sweet 16, but they should not be expected to go any farther.  It is unlikely that a team in this range will face three consecutive teams with even weaker R+T ratings.

An R+T rating in the 0-5 range does not have the goods to make it to the second weekend of the tournament.  Favored teams in this range playing underdogs with double-digit R+T ratings are prime to be “upset.”

And, when you see a team with a negative R+T, treat this team like you would treat a race horse with “four white socks.”

There is an old poem about horses wearing white socks (hooves), as it was generally believed, rightly or wrongly, that white hooves were a sign of weakness in a horse.  If we remember correctly it goes:

One white sock, keep him to the end.

Two white socks, give him to a friend.

Three white socks, send him far away.

Four white socks, keep him not a day.

A team with a negative R+T rating has four white socks.  Pick them not a game.  Teams with negative R+T ratings almost always lose in the Round of 64, even if they are a 2-seed playing a 15-seed.  There was a year where three heavily favored teams from power conferences but with negative R+T ratings played three double-digit seeds from mid-major conferences but with good R+T ratings.  All three heavily favored teams lost.

Do you remember in 2013 when Florida Gulf Coast made Andy Enfield famous for something more than his fantastic spouse, when his 15th-seeded Eagles clobbered second-seed Georgetown?  FGCU had a fat R+T rating, while the Hoyas had a negative R+T rating.

Let’s look at this statistic in tabular form with several potential NCAA Tournament teams.  These numbers represent only the stats from conference games for each team, thus eliminating games where a power conference team beat a low-major team by 35 points and padded their stats.

Team	Reb.	Stl.	Opp Stl.	TO	R+T	Conf.
Alabama	-0.1	7.7	6.7	-0.3	2.7	1
Arizona	6.1	4.8	5.7	-0.2	14.7	5
Auburn	-0.3	8.1	5.8	4.4	8.1	1
Buffalo	4.1	6.9	4.8	2.4	15.3	13
Cincinnati	9.1	7.1	5.1	3.1	25.8	7
Clemson	-1.9	5.4	6.4	-0.5	-2.0	2
Duke	6.9	7.8	5.7	-0.1	17.9	2
East Tennessee	7.7	6.8	5.6	0.2	19.4	17
Florida	-3.6	5.2	3.3	3.0	1.1	1
Florida St.	3.6	5.5	5.8	0.0	10.2	2
Gonzaga	10.5	5.7	4.9	2.6	27.6	11
Kansas	-5.2	5.8	5.7	0.3	-6.9	3
Kansas St.	-8.0	8.3	6.0	3.0	-8.9	3
Kentucky	2.0	5.7	5.1	-1.7	6.1	1
UL-Lafayette	10.2	7.9	5.7	1.1	25.8	23
Louisville	1.6	7.9	7.3	2.1	8.0	2
Loyola (Chi.)	0.8	7.4	5.7	2.2	7.8	9
Miami (Fla.)	0.9	7.6	6.3	1.6	6.9	2
Michigan	-0.5	5.1	4.7	3.2	6.1	6
Michigan St.	9.0	3.5	4.8	-4.5	16.5	6
Middle Tennessee	10.0	5.5	6.2	-0.9	21.7	14
Montana	4.5	8.8	4.1	4.3	19.6	20
Nevada	-1.2	7.3	4.4	4.8	7.7	10
New Mexico St.	11.5	4.3	5.3	1.7	27.6	15
North Carolina	9.9	5.5	5.7	-1.2	21.7	2
North Carolina St.	0.9	6.8	6.0	1.6	6.8	2
Ohio St.	6.0	5.8	3.9	0.0	17.0	6
Oklahoma	1.6	6.3	7.8	-3.2	1.4	3
Oregon	1.8	6.7	4.8	0.7	8.9	5
Purdue	1.9	5.5	5.4	1.5	8.7	6
Rhode Island	1.5	6.3	5.7	5.6	12.1	8
Saint Mary’s	6.4	5.8	6.3	-0.7	14.7	11
South Dakota St.	2.9	5.1	4.4	-0.2	9.8	16
USC	-1.4	8.0	4.7	7.0	9.5	5
SMU	-0.7	8.4	4.0	2.8	7.6	7
Tennessee	1.4	6.0	5.7	0.7	6.8	1
Texas Tech	5.1	6.2	6.7	0.6	13.2	3
UCLA	-0.1	6.1	4.9	0.5	4.5	5
Villanova	-3.2	6.7	4.3	3.6	2.3	4
Virginia	-2.9	8.3	4.1	6.2	6.5	2
Virginia Tech	-6.4	6.4	5.8	1.4	-8.0	2
West Virginia	2.8	6.9	6.0	2.3	11.4	3
Wichita St.	9.3	4.9	6.1	0.8	21.8	7

There are a couple of extra things to add to this discussion before you receive your BS in R+Tology.  Most of you by now have thought that it is a lot easier for New Mexico State to dominate in the WAC than it is for Kansas to dominate in the Big 12.  Beating Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Texas Tech is a lot harder than beating Chicago State, Missouri-Kansas City, and Seattle.  Definitely, the strength of the conference must be factored into this equation.  In the last column above, you see a number under the heading of “conf.”  This represents the rating of conferences by strength.  As of today, the SEC is the toughest league in college basketball.  The ACC is number two; the Big 12 is number three; and so on.  The WAC is number 15.  There are 31 Division One conferences, so 15 is about average, while the SEC and ACC are many points better than an average conference.

We do handicap these ratings when we do our March Madness picking.  An ACC team with an R+T rating of 15 is better than a Colonial Athletic Association team with an R+T rating of 23.  A SWAC team with an R+T rating of 7 is like a Big 12 team with a negative R+T rating.

One final adjustment.  When looking at the components of the R+T ratings, notice whether a team’s components are all positive numbers.  In other words, look to see if a team has positive rebounding margins, positive turnover margins (commit less than they force), averages more than 6 steals per game and who limits opponents steals to less than 6 per game.  This is the sign of a complete team, and complete teams frequently beat teams with superior R+T ratings when the other team is not a complete team.

Let’s look at two examples from above.

Dan Hurley has done a great job at Rhode Island, and the Rams are a “complete team.”  They have a positive rebounding margin.  They average more than 6 steals per game and give up less than 6 steals per game, and they have a really nice turnover margin.  Their R+T rating is 12.1, and the Atlantic 10 conference is rated #8.  URI is definitely Sweet 16-worthy with these stats before we begin to look at other factors like shooting percentages and defensive shooting percentages.

Now, let’s look at Michigan State.  The Spartans have a 16.5 R+T rating from the number 6 conference.  However, Sparty averages only 3.5 steals per game and have a negative turnover margin of 4.5.  This is a real warning sign for bracket-pickers.  MSU will dominate on the boards in a matchup against Rhode Island, but the Rams will even up that advantage with a large turnover margins against the Spartans.  If both teams shoot a similar percentage from inside and outside the 3-point line, you have a toss-up game.

Michigan State saw how this lack of being complete hurt them in the past.  In the 2016 NCAA Tournament, the Spartans faced a Middle Tennessee State team that excelled in turnover margin and steals.  The Blue Raiders basically were much quicker than Michigan State, and this is why their turnover margin was so excellent.  They could pressure the ball and play in the passing lanes without giving up easy baskets.  MTSU pulled off the upset thanks to turnover margin equalizing the rebounding margin of their opponent.  The Blue Raiders’ quickness led to a lot of open shots, while Michigan State’s power game did not produce an equivalent number of open shots.  MTSU took MSU out of its game plan and forced the tempo, turning this into a 70-possession game.  Michigan State preferred a 60-64 possession game, and those extra 6-10 possessions per side helped the underdog team.

It is not always this cut and dried.  Other factors have to be considered, and this is where the PiRate Ratings have made substantial changes starting this year.  In past years, we did not give a lot of support to excellent three-point shooting teams, because we favored teams that could get shots from within 5 feet of the basket.  During the last three or four years, the three-point shot has become much more important, essential if you will.  The Golden State Warriors and other NBA teams now rely on advanced analytical data almost as much as Major League Baseball teams.  Three-point shooting has been determined to be as vital as having the relief ace that can enter the World Series in the 6th inning and get six high-leverage outs.  The PiRate Bracket-picking protocol has now incorporated true shooting percentages with R+T ratings and conference strength to refine our ratings.

The game has come down to whether a team can be expected to shoot a certain percentage from inside and outside the 3-point line and whether they can be expected to get extra scoring opportunities.  A combination of these two basic factors will be how we handicap games in the future.  Of course, we will handicap the two factors based on conference strength.

When you look at our spreads each week, you are looking at an algorithm that incorporates and handicaps due to conference strength, expected true shooting percentages and scoring opportunities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 13-14, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads of Major Conference Games

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Tulane	Connecticut	3.8
Temple	Memphis	10.2
South Florida	Cincinnati	-22.9
Tulsa	Wichita St.	-11.6
Duke	Wake Forest	17.3
Florida St.	Syracuse	7.6
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	-2.8
Clemson	Miami (Fla.)	4.4
Louisville	Virginia Tech	3.9
Notre Dame	North Carolina	0.5
Kansas	Kansas St.	12.0
Oklahoma	TCU	5.6
Texas Tech	West Virginia	4.8
Iowa St.	Baylor	-4.1
Oklahoma St.	Texas	0.0
Seton Hall	Georgetown	11.6
Xavier	Creighton	2.2
St. John’s	Villanova	-12.5
Michigan St.	Michigan	10.2
Minnesota	Purdue	-8.3
Wyoming	Colorado St.	8.2
San Jose St.	Air Force	0.8
Fresno St.	New Mexico	5.9
Nevada	Utah St.	14.6
Boise St.	San Diego St.	3.3
Arizona	Oregon	8.9
Washington St.	California	5.6
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	15.3
Washington	Stanford	4.5
UCLA	Colorado	10.5
Ole Miss	Florida	-5.0
Georgia	South Carolina	4.9
Mississippi St.	Auburn	-3.3
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-4.1
Tennessee	Texas A&M	4.7
Arkansas	Missouri	4.9
LSU	Alabama	3.8
Pepperdine	Saint Mary’s	-17.3
San Francisco	Gonzaga	-13.5
Santa Clara	BYU	-10.4
San Diego	Loyola Marymount	11.2
Portland	Pacific	-2.5

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
East Carolina	Houston	-17.2
Virginia	North Carolina St.	14.7
Indiana	Northwestern	0.6
Rutgers	Ohio St.	-6.0
USC	Utah	5.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank	Team	PiRate	Conf.
1	Villanova	121.1	BIGE
2	Purdue	120.0	BTEN
3	Duke	119.7	ACC
4	Michigan St.	119.3	BTEN
5	Kansas	117.6	B12
6	Virginia	117.5	ACC
7	Gonzaga	117.2	WCC
8	Texas Tech	116.9	B12
9	North Carolina	116.2	ACC
10	Cincinnati	116.0	AAC
11	Wichita St.	116.0	AAC
12	West Virginia	115.6	B12
13	Creighton	115.0	BIGE
14	Oklahoma	114.8	B12
15	Xavier	113.7	BIGE
16	Tennessee	113.2	SEC
17	Arizona	113.2	PAC12
18	Arizona St.	113.2	PAC12
19	Clemson	112.9	ACC
20	Notre Dame	112.7	ACC
21	TCU	112.7	B12
22	Florida	112.7	SEC
23	Florida St.	112.5	ACC
24	Auburn	112.4	SEC
25	Michigan	112.1	BTEN

PiRate Ratings By Major Conference

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Cincinnati	116.0	AAC
Wichita St.	116.0	AAC
SMU	110.2	AAC
Houston	110.0	AAC
UCF	105.4	AAC
Temple	105.3	AAC
Tulsa	101.4	AAC
Tulane	101.3	AAC
Connecticut	100.5	AAC
Memphis	98.6	AAC
South Florida	90.1	AAC
East Carolina	89.8	AAC
Duke	119.7	ACC
Virginia	117.5	ACC
North Carolina	116.2	ACC
Clemson	112.9	ACC
Notre Dame	112.7	ACC
Florida St.	112.5	ACC
Miami FL	112.0	ACC
Louisville	110.5	ACC
Virginia Tech	110.1	ACC
Syracuse	108.4	ACC
North Carolina St.	106.8	ACC
Wake Forest	105.4	ACC
Boston College	105.4	ACC
Georgia Tech	102.3	ACC
Pittsburgh	96.5	ACC
Kansas	117.6	B12
Texas Tech	116.9	B12
West Virginia	115.6	B12
Oklahoma	114.8	B12
TCU	112.7	B12
Baylor	110.9	B12
Texas	110.8	B12
Kansas St.	108.6	B12
Oklahoma St.	107.8	B12
Iowa St.	103.8	B12
Villanova	121.1	BIGE
Creighton	115.0	BIGE
Xavier	113.7	BIGE
Seton Hall	112.0	BIGE
Butler	110.3	BIGE
Marquette	110.0	BIGE
Providence	106.8	BIGE
St. John’s	105.6	BIGE
Georgetown	103.9	BIGE
DePaul	103.6	BIGE
Purdue	120.0	BTEN
Michigan St.	119.3	BTEN
Michigan	112.1	BTEN
Ohio St.	112.1	BTEN
Maryland	110.7	BTEN
Penn St.	109.8	BTEN
Minnesota	108.2	BTEN
Northwestern	107.6	BTEN
Wisconsin	105.9	BTEN
Iowa	105.4	BTEN
Illinois	105.4	BTEN
Indiana	104.7	BTEN
Nebraska	104.7	BTEN
Rutgers	103.1	BTEN
Nevada	111.8	MWC
San Diego St.	109.1	MWC
Boise St.	108.9	MWC
UNLV	105.9	MWC
Fresno St.	104.3	MWC
Wyoming	101.9	MWC
New Mexico	101.4	MWC
Utah St.	100.7	MWC
Colorado St.	96.7	MWC
Air Force	92.1	MWC
San Jose St.	89.9	MWC
Arizona	113.2	PAC12
Arizona St.	113.2	PAC12
UCLA	108.7	PAC12
USC	108.7	PAC12
Oregon	107.8	PAC12
Utah	106.6	PAC12
Washington	102.7	PAC12
Colorado	102.2	PAC12
Stanford	101.7	PAC12
Oregon St.	101.4	PAC12
Washington St.	99.0	PAC12
California	96.4	PAC12
Tennessee	113.2	SEC
Florida	112.7	SEC
Auburn	112.4	SEC
Texas A&M	112.0	SEC
Kentucky	112.0	SEC
Arkansas	111.8	SEC
Missouri	110.4	SEC
LSU	108.6	SEC
Alabama	108.3	SEC
Georgia	107.0	SEC
Mississippi St.	105.6	SEC
South Carolina	105.1	SEC
Vanderbilt	104.9	SEC
Mississippi	104.2	SEC
Gonzaga	117.2	WCC
Saint Mary’s	111.3	WCC
BYU	106.5	WCC
San Diego	102.6	WCC
San Francisco	100.7	WCC
Pacific	97.0	WCC
Loyola Marymount	94.4	WCC
Santa Clara	92.6	WCC
Portland	91.5	WCC
Pepperdine	91.0	WCC

10 Mid-Major Teams That Have The Talent And Coaching To Make The Sweet 16
(listed alphabetically)

East Tennessee St.
Conference–Southern
Current Won-Loss Records– 4-0/13-4
Head Coach–Steve Forbes
Family Tree–Bruce Pearl & Gregg Marshall

With the Buccaneers’ win over UNC-Greensboro last night, ETSU remains in a 1st place tie with Furman in the SoCon. ETSU stayed close in their NCAA Tournament game with Florida last year, and this year’s team is a bit better. The Bucs came close to pulling off the upset win at #10 Xavier earlier this season, and they didn’t get embarrassed against Kentucky at Rupp Arena. The Bucs have won 11 of their last 12 with an average scoring margin of 81-64. ETSU plays at Furman next Thursday night.

Middle Tennessee St.
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-4
Head Coach–Kermit Davis, Jr.
Family Tree–Bob Boyd & Tim Floyd

It should come as no surprise to most basketball fans, especially those in the Big Ten, that the Blue Raiders are a force to be reckoned with. MTSU has won back-to-back second round NCAA Tournament games over Michigan State and Minnesota, before falling in the Round of 32 to strong teams. The Blue Raiders have at times this year played like a top 20 team. In December, they swept Florida Gulf Coast in a rare, back-to-back home and home series; then they won at neighborhood SEC rival Vanderbilt; then they blew Ole Miss off the floor in a home game; before losing close to Auburn in Birmingham in a game where they made a furious comeback to have a chance to win. Then, in Hawaii, they lost close games to USC and Miami. Star forward Nick King has five double-doubles so far, while Giddy Potts is the glue that keeps this team together. His defensive pressure can take opponents out of their offensive game plans.

Next week, MTSU plays on the road at the two toughest venues outside of their own Murphy Athletic Center. On Thursday night, the Blue Raiders visit Marshall, and on Saturday, they face off against chief rival Western Kentucky. If MTSU splits those two games, then they should secure another CUSA regular season title.

Missouri St.
Conference–Missouri Valley
Current Won-Loss Records–3-2/13-5
Head Coach–Paul Lusk
Family Tree–Gene Keady & Matt Painter

With Wichita State moving up to the American Athletic Conference, Missouri State becomes one of multiple contenders for the top spot in the Valley. Under Coach Paul Lusk, a former Purdue assistant, MSU has become a defensive force, especially inside, where the Bears have the best frontcourt in the league, led by top big man Alize Johnson. Johnson currently averages 15.2 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. This team can go eight deep with talented depth, and when their supporting cast is knocking down threes, this team can compete against anybody. MSU has a key game coming up at Drake a week from tomorrow. The winner of that game should be looking down at the rest of the league in the standings into February.

New Mexico St.
Conference–Western Athletic
Current Won-Loss Records–2-0/14-3
Head Coach–Chris Jans
Family Tree–Gregg Marshall

The Aggies might be strong enough to make a Cinderella run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and even consider themselves a possible Final Four contender. If you think this is impossible, it actually would not be a first in Las Cruces. NMSU has been in the Final Four, and it was no fluke back in 1970 when then coach Lou Henson guided the Aggies to a number three ranking in the polls.

This NMSU team has already made a name for itself with wins over Illinois in a not-so-neutral site game in Chicago and against Miami of Florida in Hawaii. After besting conference rival Grand Canyon by 11 last night, NMSU could run the table in the WAC this year and enter the NCAA Tournament as high as an 11th seed.

The Aggies are undersized and need to rely on pressure man-to-man defense with the occasional full-court press, but they play taller than they are and usually win the rebounding war, where they have a plus 8.7 margin presently.

Northern Kentucky
Conference–Horizon
Current Won-Loss Records–4-1/11-6
Head Coach–John Brannen
Family Tree–John Kresse & Anthony Grant

Until losing at home to Wright State last night, NKU looked like an almost sure thing to return to the NCAA Tournament this year after making their first appearance last year.

The Norse return the three stars that kept the team in the game against Kentucky in the Second Round last year, and it figures that NKU could win a second and even third round game this year, but they have to get there first. With Wright State looking like they could soon make this list, who knows if they will get another shot?

Old Dominion
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–3-1/12-4
Head Coach–Jeff Jones
Family Tree–Terry Holland

With an ACC championship at Virginia and four Colonial Athletic championships at American, Jeff Jones knows how to win. Old Dominion is one of four talented contenders for the CUSA crown, and most likely just one CUSA will get an invitation. So, it figures that ODU has about a 25% chance of going dancing this year. If they do get there, the Monarchs have the talent to stay around awhile.

ODU wins with its defense, where the Monarchs hold opponents to under 40% shooting from the field and then have a 5.6 rebounding margin and 3.9 turnover margin. At +9.5 in the hustle points, the opponent must shoot lights out or force ODU to shoot around 35% or worse to beat the Monarchs. Keep an eye on 6-10 post man Trey Porter, who appears to be on the cusp of breaking out into a star. In the last 5 games, he has averaged 17.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting 62% from the field.

If you are a fan of seeing a great offense go up against a great defense, you may want to tune into tomorrow’s ODU-Marshall game to see how the Monarchs’ defend the D’Antoni seven-second offense.

Rhode Island
Conference–Atlantic 10
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-3
Head Coach–Dan Hurley
Family Tree–Bob Wenzel (student of former Duke coach Bill Foster)

Before Rams’ fans get on our case that URI should be considered a Major and not Mid-Major team, and that they should move up into an at-large proability, we actually agree with you. And, if the Rams continue to win and make it obvious that they are a definite at-large team, we will move the A-10 up into the Major Conference grouping and rank the teams in this league like we are doing for the Mountain West and West Coast Conferences.

Dan Hurley is not getting all the publicity that his little brother has been getting at Arizona State, but the older of the two brothers is doing a smashup job at Rhode Island.
The Rams’ three losses have come to Nevada in Reno, Virginia in Brooklyn, and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They have wins against Seton Hall, Providence, and Florida Gulf Coast, and they get a chance to pick up another key win tomorrow when they host St. Bonaventure.

URI came close to making the Sweet 16 last year, beating Creighton before losing a heartbreaker to Oregon in the NCAA Tournament.

St. Bonaventure
Conference–Atlantic 10
Current Won-Loss Records–2-2/12-4
Head Coach–Mark Schmidt
Family Tree–Bruce Parkhill and Skip Prosser

The Bonnies have been close to making the Big Dance the last two years, coming up a game or two short. This may be their best team since 1978. With wins over over Maryland and Syracuse, St. Bonaventure has already shown that big time teams do not intimidate this group. A couple of senior leaders, Matt Mobley and Jaylen Adams, make a great one-two punch for the Bonnies, as the two combine to average 35.5 points per game. Earlier this season against UMass, the two combined for 60 points and 9 of 16 from behind the arc. If a dance opponent or two catches the pair this hot, SBU can get to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Of course, they still must earn their way into the dance, and losing back-to-back road games against Dayton and St. Joe’s damaged their at-large chances.

Their game with Rhode Island tomorrow morning is a real test to see if they are tournament worthy.

Vermont
Conference–America East
Current Won-Loss Records–2-0/12-5
Head Coach–John Becker
Family Tree–Mike Lonergan (who was a Gary Williams disciple)

Vermont has become the Villanova of the America East Conference. The Catamounts were overwhelming favorites to win the league this year after returning most of the team that won the league last year and led Purdue for a bit in their NCAA Tournament loss to the Boilermakers.

VU’s most impressive game this year was its opener at Kentucky, where the Catamounts made a furious comeback before falling by four points. Expect the Catamounts to extend their current five-game winning streak well into double digits, and it would not surprise us if VU wins out from here to enter the NCAA Tournament at 29-5.

Forward Anthony Lamb has averaged 22.5 points per game since New Year’s Day, and if guard Ernie Duncan can become more consistent, the Catamounts can make it to the Sweet 16.

Western Kentucky
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-5
Head Coach–Rick Stansbury
Family Tree–Lake Kelly and Richard Williams

It should be no surprise to long-time basketball fans that Western Kentucky has a team capable of becoming a Sweet 16 entrant in the NCAA Tournament. The Hilltoppers have been there before multiple times, even earning a Final Four berth in 1971, where WKU fell in overtime to Villanova.

This Hilltopper team is not going to remind the old-timers of the Clem Haskins or Jim McDaniel days. However, if you saw this team play in the Battle for Atlantis, they narrowly lost to top-ranked Villanova and then bested Purdue and SMU.
More importantly, WKU went on the road this past week and topped two of the three rivals they must defeat to win the CUSA Championship. The Hilltoppers beat Marshall 112-87 and Old Dominion 75-68, which leaves them currently tied for first with their arch-rival, Middle Tennessee.

In other years, CUSA might qualify two teams for the NCAA Tournament coming from the four teams that on any given night, could knock off a Big Ten or SEC opponent. However, unless one team runs the table in the regular season and then finished runner-up in the CUSA Tournament, it isn’t likely that the league will get an at-large bid.
WKU wins games because they have an incredible number of accurate shooters who know how to get open. All 5 starters average double figure scoring, and Coach Stansbury has a trio of competent rebounders and a duo of great playmakers.

Saturday, January 20, and Thursday, March 1 are the dates when WKU and Middle face off. The first game will be in Bowling Green, so WKU should be a slight favorite.

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Final Polls

Congratulations go to Coach Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the National Championship in a thrilling overtime victory over the Georgia Bulldogs.  Alabama wins the top spot in all three ratings, plus the retro rankings.  Here’s how the final numbers crunched.

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Georgia
3	Ohio St.
4	Wisconsin
5	Central Florida
6	Penn St.
7	Clemson
8	Oklahoma
9	Notre Dame
10	Auburn
11	TCU
12	Michigan St.
13	Miami (Fla)
14	USC
15	Washington
16	Oklahoma St.
17	Northwestern
18	North Carolina St.
19	Iowa
20	Stanford
21	Virginia Tech
22	Mississippi St.
23	LSU
24	Memphis
25	Boise St.
26	Michigan
27	Iowa St.
28	Wake Forest
29	South Florida
30	Louisville
31	South Carolina
32	Washington St.
33	Toledo
34	Florida Atlantic
35	Boston College
36	Florida St.
37	Texas
38	Purdue
39	Kansas St.
40	San Diego St.
41	Fresno St.
42	Troy
43	Army
44	Navy
45	Texas A&M
46	Duke
47	Georgia Tech
48	Oregon
49	Utah
50	West Virginia
51	Missouri
52	Arizona St.
53	Houston
54	Texas Tech
55	Kentucky
56	Arizona
57	UCLA
58	Appalachian St.
59	Ohio
60	Indiana
61	Ole Miss
62	Pittsburgh
63	California
64	Northern Illinois
65	Temple
66	SMU
67	Minnesota
68	Marshall
69	North Texas
70	Virginia
71	Wyoming
72	Florida
73	Syracuse
74	Maryland
75	Central Michigan
76	Colorado
77	Colorado St.
78	Nebraska
79	Western Michigan
80	Louisiana Tech
81	Tulane
82	Vanderbilt
83	Arkansas St.
84	Southern Miss.
85	Florida Int’l.
86	Arkansas
87	Akron
88	Buffalo
89	Middle Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	Tennessee
92	North Carolina
93	UAB
94	Eastern Michigan
95	Rutgers
96	Air Force
97	New Mexico St.
98	UTSA
99	Miami (O)
100	Cincinnati
101	Tulsa
102	UNLV
103	Western Kentucky
104	Baylor
105	BYU
106	East Carolina
107	Nevada
108	Georgia St.
109	Massachusetts
110	Connecticut
111	Illinois
112	Old Dominion
113	UL-Monroe
114	Bowling Green
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	South Alabama
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Coastal Carolina
122	Georgia Southern
123	Kansas
124	Kent St.
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	136.9	133.5	135.8	135.4
2	Ohio St.	132.3	130.2	132.6	131.7
3	Georgia	130.8	130.0	131.4	130.7
4	Clemson	131.3	128.6	130.9	130.3
5	Penn St.	129.4	128.1	129.8	129.1
6	Oklahoma	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
7	Auburn	127.0	125.2	127.2	126.5
8	Washington	126.2	124.2	126.1	125.5
9	Wisconsin	126.4	123.9	125.5	125.3
10	Oklahoma St.	121.2	120.4	121.6	121.1
11	Stanford	120.6	119.0	119.9	119.8
12	U S C	120.1	119.2	119.8	119.7
13	L S U	118.5	116.3	118.8	117.9
14	Virginia Tech	118.1	117.6	117.9	117.8
15	Miami	118.6	117.4	117.5	117.8
16	T C U	118.0	116.5	118.2	117.6
17	N. Carolina St.	117.1	116.2	117.0	116.8
18	Central Florida	116.0	116.9	117.2	116.7
19	Louisville	116.8	116.0	116.5	116.4
20	Notre Dame	116.6	115.4	116.8	116.2
21	Florida St.	116.9	116.0	115.7	116.2
22	Northwestern	115.4	114.2	115.5	115.0
23	Iowa	114.3	114.5	113.6	114.2
24	Michigan	114.2	114.0	113.4	113.9
25	Mississippi St.	113.5	113.3	113.3	113.4
26	Memphis	113.2	112.5	114.0	113.2
27	Iowa State	112.8	112.8	113.9	113.2
28	Texas	112.9	112.9	113.5	113.1
29	Kansas St.	112.9	112.7	113.0	112.9
30	Boston College	112.6	112.3	112.6	112.5
31	Michigan St.	111.0	111.6	112.1	111.6
32	Wake Forest	112.1	110.4	112.2	111.6
33	Duke	111.1	110.0	110.4	110.5
34	Utah	109.9	109.9	110.1	110.0
35	Oregon	110.5	108.6	109.9	109.7
36	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
37	Washington St.	109.8	107.7	109.3	108.9
38	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
39	S. Carolina	109.1	108.3	108.2	108.5
40	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
41	Missouri	108.5	107.1	107.8	107.8
42	Boise St.	107.5	106.1	107.6	107.1
43	Texas A&M	107.9	106.0	107.0	107.0
44	West Virginia	106.7	107.4	106.7	106.9
45	Arizona St.	106.4	105.3	106.0	105.9
46	Kentucky	106.4	105.7	105.0	105.7
47	Purdue	105.6	105.4	106.1	105.7
48	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
49	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
50	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
51	Arizona	106.0	104.9	104.9	105.3
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Florida Atlantic	103.4	104.9	105.3	104.5
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	Navy	103.5	104.1	103.7	103.8
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	U C L A	103.0	102.4	102.3	102.6
58	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
59	San Diego St.	101.5	101.5	102.5	101.8
60	Houston	101.4	101.1	101.5	101.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Army	100.9	100.8	101.3	101.0
63	Appalachian St.	101.2	100.0	101.4	100.9
64	Toledo	100.1	100.1	102.1	100.8
65	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Troy	99.7	99.8	99.9	99.8
68	Fresno St.	99.9	98.6	100.8	99.8
69	Colo. State	99.8	99.1	99.7	99.5
70	Virginia	99.6	98.6	99.9	99.4
71	Ohio U	98.3	99.6	99.3	99.1
72	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
73	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
74	Temple	98.2	98.5	98.8	98.5
75	Wyoming	97.8	96.9	97.2	97.3
76	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
77	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
78	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.0	95.8	95.2
79	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
80	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
81	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
82	Arkansas St.	93.8	95.0	94.7	94.5
83	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
84	SMU	94.0	94.5	94.3	94.3
85	Utah St.	94.0	93.3	93.7	93.7
86	Marshall	92.4	93.5	93.8	93.3
87	Central Michigan	92.8	93.1	93.4	93.1
88	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
89	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
90	Louisiana Tech	90.8	92.4	91.6	91.6
91	Middle Tennessee	90.4	91.4	91.6	91.1
92	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
93	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	Massachusetts	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
98	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
99	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
100	Florida Int’l.	87.6	88.0	88.4	88.0
101	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
102	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.4	87.8	87.9
103	N. Texas	86.4	87.8	86.9	87.0
104	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
105	N. Mexico St.	86.8	85.7	86.9	86.5
106	W. Kentucky	85.7	86.2	86.1	86.0
107	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
108	Akron	84.2	86.1	84.9	85.1
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Georgia St.	82.7	82.7	82.5	82.7
113	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
114	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
115	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
116	UL-Monroe	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
117	S. Alabama	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
118	Idaho	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
119	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
120	UAB	79.6	79.9	81.3	80.3
121	UL-Lafayette	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
122	Georgia Southern	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
123	Coastal Carolina	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
124	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	112.7	111.6	112.2	112.2
2	SEC	112.0	110.7	111.4	111.4
3	B12	109.8	109.9	110.0	109.9
4	P-12	109.4	108.1	108.6	108.7
5	BTEN	108.8	108.6	108.5	108.6
6	IND	99.1	98.6	99.2	99.0
7	AAC	97.9	98.3	98.2	98.1
8	MWC	92.2	92.2	92.3	92.2
9	MAC	88.2	89.1	89.0	88.8
10	CUSA	84.4	85.8	85.2	85.1
11	SBC	84.3	85.0	84.3	84.5

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Bowls & Playoffs Preview

2017-18 Bowls & Playoffs Schedule

All times are EST

Saturday, December 16

New Orleans Bowl: 1:00 PM on ESPN

North Texas (9-4) vs. Troy (10-2)

 

Cure Bowl: 2:30 PM on CBSSN

Western Kentucky (6-6) vs. Georgia St. (6-5)

 

Las Vegas Bowl: 3:30 PM on ABC

Boise St. (10-3) vs. Oregon (7-5)

 

New Mexico Bowl: 4:30 PM on ESPN

Marshall (7-5) vs. Colorado St. (7-5)

 

Camellia Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Middle Tennessee (6-6) vs. Arkansas St. (7-4)

 

Tuesday, December 19

Boca Raton Bowl: 7:00 PM on ESPN

Akron (7-6) vs. Florida Atlantic (10-3)

 

Wednesday, December 20

Frisco Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

SMU (7-5) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-6)

 

Thursday, December 21

Gasparilla Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Temple (6-6) vs. Florida Int’l. (8-4)

 

Friday, December 22

Bahamas Bowl: 12:30 PM on ESPN

UAB (8-4) vs. Ohio U. (8-4)

 

Idaho Potato Bowl: 4:00 PM on ESPN

Central Michigan (8-4) vs. Wyoming (7-5)

 

Saturday, December 23

Birmingham Bowl: 12:00 PM on ESPN

South Florida (9-2) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)

 

Armed Forces Bowl: 3:30 PM on ESPN

Army (9-3) vs. San Diego St. (10-2)

 

Dollar General Bowl: 7:00 PM on ESPN

Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian St. (8-4)

 

Sunday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl: 8:30 PM on ESPN

Houston (7-4) vs. Fresno St. (9-4)

 

Tuesday, December 26

Heart of Dallas Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

West Virginia (7-5) vs. Utah (6-6)

 

Quick Lane Bowl: 5:00 PM on ESPN

Duke (6-6) vs. Northern Illinois (8-4)

 

Cactus Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. UCLA (6-6)

 

Wednesday, December 27

Independence Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

Florida St. (6-6) vs. Southern Miss. (8-4)

 

Pinstripe Bowl: 5:15 PM on ESPN

Boston College (7-5) vs. Iowa (7-5)

 

Foster Farms: 8:30 PM on Fox

Purdue (6-6) vs. Arizona (7-5)

 

Texas Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

Texas (6-6) vs. Missouri (7-5)

 

Thursday, December 28

Military Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

Navy (6-6) vs. Virginia (6-6)

 

Camping World Bowl: 5:15 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma St. (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (9-3)

 

Holiday Bowl: 9:00 PM on FS1

Michigan St. (9-3) vs. Washington St. (9-3)

 

Alamo Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

TCU (10-3) vs. Stanford (9-4)

 

Friday, December 29

Belk Bowl: 1:00 PM on ESPN

Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)

 

Sun Bowl: 3:00 PM on CBS

North Carolina St. (8-4) vs. Arizona St. (7-5)

 

Music City Bowl: 4:30 PM on ESPN

Kentucky (7-5) vs. Northwestern (9-3)

 

Arizona Bowl: 5:30 PM on CBSSN

Utah St. (6-6) vs. New Mexico St. (6-6)

 

Cotton Bowl: 8:30 PM on ESPN

Ohio St. (11-2) vs. USC (11-2)

 

Saturday, December 30

Taxslayer Bowl: 12:00 PM on ESPN

Louisville (8-4) vs. Mississippi St. (8-4)

 

Liberty Bowl: 12:30 PM on ABC

Iowa St. (7-5) vs. Memphis (10-2)

 

Fiesta Bowl: 4:00 PM on ESPN

Penn St. (10-2) vs. Washington (10-2)

 

Orange Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Wisconsin (12-1) vs. Miami (Fla.) (10-2)

 

Monday, January 1

Outback Bowl: 12:00 OM on ESPN2

Michigan (8-4) vs. South Carolina (8-4)

 

Peach Bowl: 12:30 PM on ESPN

Auburn (10-3) vs. Central Florida (12-0)

 

Citrus Bowl: 1:00 PM on ABC

Notre Dame (9-3) vs. LSU (9-3)

 

New Year’s Day Playoffs

Rose Bowl: 5:00 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Georgia (12-1)

 

Sugar Bowl: 8:45 PM on ESPN

Clemson (12-1) vs. Alabama (11-1)

 

Monday, January 8

National Championship Game: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner

 

PiRate Rating Spreads for Bowls/Playoffs

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Texas	Troy	-12.5	-11.2	-11.8
Georgia St.	Western Kentucky	-6.6	-6.9	-7.3
Boise St.	Oregon	-6.6	-5.7	-5.9
Marshall	Colorado St.	-10.4	-8.0	-8.7
Middle Tennessee	Arkansas St.	-5.9	-5.7	-5.7
Florida Atlantic	Akron	15.2	14.8	16.4
SMU	Louisiana Tech	11.7	10.5	11.1
Florida Int’l.	Temple	-5.8	-6.1	-5.2
UAB	Ohio U	-14.7	-16.3	-13.6
Wyoming	Central Michigan	0.4	-0.8	-1.4
South Florida	Texas Tech	3.8	3.2	4.5
San Diego St.	Army	2.4	2.3	3.2
Appalachian St.	Toledo	-5.9	-7.1	-7.7
Fresno St.	Houston	-3.5	-4.5	-2.7
West Virginia	Utah	0.2	0.7	0.2
Northern Illinois	Duke	-14.7	-13.8	-12.8
UCLA	Kansas St.	-7.7	-8.5	-8.4
Southern Miss.	Florida St.	-29.4	-27.4	-27.3
Boston College	Iowa	-0.3	-1.0	0.5
Arizona	Purdue	0.8	-0.3	-0.8
Texas	Missouri	4.2	6.3	5.5
Navy	Virginia	-1.1	0.5	-1.2
Oklahoma St.	Virginia Tech	1.9	1.8	2.6
TCU	Stanford	-1.3	-1.2	-0.6
Washington St.	Michigan St.	5.8	3.1	4.2
Wake Forest	Texas A&M	6.4	6.6	7.4
Arizona St.	North Carolina St.	-8.3	-8.7	-8.4
Kentucky	Northwestern	-8.4	-7.9	-9.9
New Mexico St.	Utah St.	-9.1	-9.6	-8.8
Ohio St.	USC	11.6	10.4	12.2
Mississippi St.	Louisville	-5.6	-4.5	-5.8
Memphis	Iowa St.	4.0	3.1	3.9
Washington	Penn St.	-2.4	-3.5	-2.7
Miami (Fla.)	Wisconsin	-3.4	-2.1	-3.6
South Carolina	Michigan	-8.3	-8.6	-8.6
Auburn	Central Florida	15.8	12.5	14.8
Notre Dame	LSU	-3.1	-1.8	-3.6
Oklahoma	Georgia	-2.4	-3.2	-1.8
Alabama	Clemson	2.8	2.4	1.7

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Final Regular Season Polls

The PiRate Poll has been updated after the Conference Championship Games, and our ratings show something different from what the Playoff Committee will decide later today.

Our Retrodictive Ratings are our closest approximation to merit based rewards.  It only factors who you beat, where you beat them, when you beat them, and in minimal fashion how you beat them.  Here are our final Retro Ratings prior to the bowls and playoffs.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Georgia
3	Oklahoma
4	Alabama
5	Ohio St.
6	Wisconsin
7	Central Florida
8	Penn St.
9	Auburn
10	Washington
11	Miami (Fla)
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Oklahoma St.
17	Stanford
18	Michigan St.
19	Michigan
20	Washington St.
21	Northwestern
22	Memphis
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Toledo
33	Wake Forest
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Appalachian St.
75	Colorado
76	Colorado St.
77	Temple
78	Nebraska
79	Western Michigan
80	Tulane
81	Arkansas St.
82	Florida Int’l.
83	Akron
84	Southern Miss.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Cincinnati
100	Western Kentucky
101	Tulsa
102	UNLV
103	Baylor
104	New Mexico St.
105	BYU
106	East Carolina
107	Nevada
108	Georgia St.
109	Massachusetts
110	Connecticut
111	Illinois
112	Old Dominion
113	UL-Monroe
114	Bowling Green
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	South Alabama
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Coastal Carolina
122	Georgia Southern
123	Kansas
124	Kent St.
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

While our ratings show that Alabama should be chosen ahead of Ohio State, we believe there will be too much pressure to take two SEC teams and leave out the Big Ten and Pac-12, especially when the Rose Bowl is one of the semifinal games.

Our ratings reflect a 34-point loss by Ohio State at a mediocre Iowa team combined with a home loss to Oklahoma, which slightly offsets their wins over Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Alabama’s best wins were not as impressive as the Buckeyes, but as a whole, they did beat more decent teams, and the SEC is several points better than the Big Ten.  Plus, their one loss was at Auburn, a team that had just blown Georgia off the Jordan-Hare Field.  Truth be told, if the Committee deferred to the smart guys in Nevada, Alabama would be the number one seed in the playoffs.

Our Predictive ratings back us up on this point.  However, the predictive ratings show that Ohio State is one of the four best teams at this point of the season.  We are scratching our heads on why Oklahoma is so low in the predictive ratings, because they have been improving week by week.  Unfortunately, they may have fallen between the cracks in how we update.  We have a mechanical update based on statistics and the point in which an easy win was already guaranteed, and maybe OU kept missing out on extra points due to a few yards here or there.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Clemson	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
3	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
4	Georgia	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
5	Auburn	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
6	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
7	Oklahoma	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
11	U S C	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
12	Stanford	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
13	Miami	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
14	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
15	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
16	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
17	T C U	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
18	Florida St.	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
46	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
47	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
48	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
49	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
50	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
51	Boise St.	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Florida Atlantic	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
63	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
64	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
65	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Fresno St.	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
71	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
74	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
75	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
76	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
77	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Arkansas St.	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
80	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
81	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
82	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
83	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
84	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
85	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
92	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	Massachusetts	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
98	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
99	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
100	Akron	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
103	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
104	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
105	N. Texas	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
113	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
114	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
115	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
116	UL-Monroe	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
117	S. Alabama	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
118	Idaho	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
119	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
120	Georgia St.	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
121	UL-Lafayette	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
122	Georgia Southern	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
123	Coastal Carolina	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
124	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	12-0	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-2	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	12-1	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	6-6	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-2	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	12-1	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-3	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	11-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-1	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	10-3	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	8-4	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
N. Texas	7-1	9-4	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-8	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Akron	6-2	7-6	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	11-2	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	10-3	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-4	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-4	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	11-2	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	12-1	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-3	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	7-1	10-2	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
Appalachian St.	7-1	8-4	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
Arkansas St.	6-2	7-4	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
N. Mexico St.	4-4	6-6	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-8	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
S. Alabama	3-5	4-8	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
Idaho	3-5	4-8	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
Georgia St.	5-3	6-5	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
UL-Lafayette	4-4	5-7	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
Georgia Southern	2-6	2-10	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
Coastal Carolina	2-6	3-9	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
2	SEC	112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
5	BIG TEN	108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
11	Sun Belt	83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

Look for our bowl and playoff spreads following next week’s Army – Navy game.

If you didn’t see our Army-Navy spread last week, it is:

Philadelphia	PA	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army (n)	Navy	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3

Why the unique color purple?

This is what we call Love Purple.  You can replicate it with the RGB of 69-0-169 and the Hex Code of 4500A9.

Love purple is the official logo color of our mom and pop company in Nashville.  We are highly appreciative of all our supporters here, and we wish you a loving and joyous holiday season.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
USC (n)	Stanford	-0.7	0.2	-0.6
Central Florida	Memphis	3.5	5.5	4.0
Florida St.	UL-Monroe	38.0	36.1	37.4
Toledo (n)	Akron	16.0	13.5	17.2
Florida Atlantic	North Texas	14.3	14.8	15.0
Oklahoma (n)	TCU	6.5	6.9	7.2
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	-6.2	-5.9	-5.0
Georgia St.	Idaho	7.5	6.3	6.5
Appy St.	UL-Lafayette	15.7	13.2	15.6
Arkansas St.	Troy	-0.8	0.0	0.5
Georgia (n)	Auburn	-3.1	-1.1	-3.1
New Mexico St.	South Alabama	7.9	4.7	7.8
Boise St.	Fresno St.	10.6	10.5	10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n)	Clemson	-7.9	-6.4	-8.6
Wisconsin (n)	Ohio St.	-6.3	-6.7	-7.5
Army (n)	Navy	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Wisconsin
3	Alabama
4	Oklahoma
5	Georgia
6	Auburn
7	Ohio St.
8	Central Florida
9	Penn St.
10	Miami (Fla)
11	Washington
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Stanford
17	Oklahoma St.
18	Michigan St.
19	Memphis
20	Michigan
21	Washington St.
22	Northwestern
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Wake Forest
33	Toledo
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Colorado
75	Colorado St.
76	Temple
77	Nebraska
78	Western Michigan
79	Tulane
80	Arkansas St.
81	Akron
82	Appalachian St.
83	Southern Miss.
84	Florida Int’l.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Georgia St.
100	Cincinnati
101	Western Kentucky
102	Tulsa
103	UNLV
104	Baylor
105	Massachusetts
106	East Carolina
107	New Mexico St.
108	BYU
109	Nevada
110	Connecticut
111	UL-Monroe
112	Illinois
113	Old Dominion
114	UL-Lafayette
115	Bowling Green
116	South Alabama
117	New Mexico
118	Idaho
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Georgia Southern
122	Kansas
123	Kent St.
124	Coastal Carolina
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
3	Auburn	131.3	128.9	131.7	130.6
4	Clemson	130.0	127.2	129.7	129.0
5	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
6	Georgia	128.2	127.8	128.6	128.2
7	Oklahoma	126.3	125.0	127.3	126.2
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Miami	122.1	120.8	121.1	121.3
11	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
12	Stanford	120.9	119.2	120.4	120.2
13	U S C	120.2	119.4	119.8	119.8
14	T C U	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
15	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
16	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
17	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
18	Florida St.	117.1	116.1	115.7	116.3
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.3	112.5	114.1	113.3
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Boise St.	106.1	104.8	106.3	105.7
46	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
47	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
48	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
49	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
50	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
51	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.4	105.6	104.2
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
63	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
64	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
65	Florida Atlantic	99.0	100.7	100.7	100.1
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.1	99.2	98.9	99.1
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
71	Fresno St.	98.5	97.3	99.3	98.4
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
74	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
75	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
76	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
77	Arkansas St.	95.2	96.3	96.4	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
80	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
81	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
82	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
83	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
84	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
85	Appalachian St.	94.8	93.6	94.8	94.4
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Massachusetts	90.8	90.0	91.1	90.6
92	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
93	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
98	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
99	Akron	87.7	89.8	88.4	88.6
100	N. Texas	87.7	88.9	88.6	88.4
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Florida Int’l.	87.6	88.1	88.4	88.1
103	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
104	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
105	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Georgia St.	83.1	82.9	82.9	83.0
113	UL-Lafayette	82.2	83.4	82.1	82.6
114	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
115	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
116	UL-Monroe	82.1	83.0	81.3	82.1
117	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
118	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
119	S. Alabama	81.0	83.0	81.2	81.7
120	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
121	Georgia Southern	80.9	82.0	80.4	81.1
122	Idaho	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
123	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
124	Coastal Carolina	72.7	74.1	73.4	73.4
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	11-0	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-1	113.3	112.5	114.1	113.3
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	11-1	130.0	127.2	129.7	129.0
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	5-6	117.1	116.1	115.7	116.3
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-1	122.1	120.8	121.1	121.3
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.2	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	11-1	126.3	125.0	127.3	126.2
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-2	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	10-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-0	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	9-3	99.0	100.7	100.7	100.1
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	7-4	87.6	88.1	88.4	88.1
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
N. Texas	7-1	9-3	87.7	88.9	88.6	88.4
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-7	90.8	90.0	91.1	90.6
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			99.1	98.7	99.3	99.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Akron	6-2	7-5	87.7	89.8	88.4	88.6
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	10-2	103.6	103.4	105.6	104.2
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	9-3	106.1	104.8	106.3	105.7
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-3	98.5	97.3	99.3	98.4
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-3	120.9	119.2	120.4	120.2
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	10-2	120.2	119.4	119.8	119.8
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	11-1	128.2	127.8	128.6	128.2
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-2	131.3	128.9	131.7	130.6
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			111.9	110.6	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	6-1	9-2	99.1	99.2	98.9	99.1
Arkansas St.	6-1	7-3	95.2	96.3	96.4	96.0
Appalachian St.	6-1	7-4	94.8	93.6	94.8	94.4
N. Mexico St.	3-4	5-6	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
Georgia St.	5-2	6-4	83.1	82.9	82.9	83.0
UL-Lafayette	4-3	5-6	82.2	83.4	82.1	82.6
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-7	82.1	83.0	81.3	82.1
S. Alabama	3-4	4-7	81.0	83.0	81.2	81.7
Georgia Southern	2-5	2-9	80.9	82.0	80.4	81.1
Idaho	2-5	3-8	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
Coastal Carolina	1-6	2-9	72.7	74.1	73.4	73.4
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.9	84.6	83.9	84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.2	112.0	112.6	112.6
2	SEC	111.9	110.6	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
5	BIG TEN	108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	99.1	98.7	99.3	99.0
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
11	Sun Belt	83.9	84.6	83.9	84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Arkansas St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	SMU	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Boise St.	Arizona St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Colorado St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	Georgia St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Houston	Northern Illinois
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Temple	Florida Int’l.
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	UAB	Ohio U
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	Wyoming
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	[Duke]	[Iowa St.]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	ARMY	[Marshall]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Troy
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Central Florida	San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	Texas Tech	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	Boston College	[Western Mich.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Kansas St.	Utah
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Florida St.	[UTSA]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	North Carolina St.	Purdue
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Utah St.]	Oregon
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Missouri
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	Navy	Virginia
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Northwestern	Stanford
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	TCU	Washington St.
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Virginia Tech	Kentucky
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Wake Forest	Arizona
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Iowa	[UCLA]
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	New Mexico St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Washington	Ohio St.
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Louisville	South Carolina
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	West Va.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	USC	Penn St.
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Miami (Fla.)	Alabama
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan	LSU
Peach	At-large	At-large	Auburn	Memphis
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Wisconsin	Oklahoma
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Clemson	Georgia
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Oklahoma	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 21-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Kent St.	16.2	16.9	16.6
Eastern Michigan	Bowling Green	17.7	16.8	17.7
Ball St.	Miami (O)	-20.5	-20.5	-21.0
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	11.6	12.9	12.7
TCU	Baylor	24.2	21.2	24.4
Toledo	Western Michigan	7.5	8.1	8.3
Virginia	Virginia Tech	-13.7	-14.2	-13.2
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	1.1	1.8	0.8
Buffalo	Ohio U	-9.4	-8.6	-8.4
Arkansas	Missouri	-7.9	-6.6	-7.6
San Diego St.	New Mexico	20.5	20.7	21.2
Houston	Navy	4.2	3.6	3.9
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	-16.3	-14.9	-15.8
Nebraska	Iowa	-9.3	-9.1	-9.0
Troy	Texas St.	24.9	23.0	25.2
Central Florida	South Florida	6.8	8.8	7.8
Florida Int’l.	Western Kentucky	-2.7	-2.2	-2.7
Texas	Texas Tech	12.5	12.7	13.8
UCLA	California	1.6	3.1	2.6
Cincinnati	Connecticut	2.6	2.6	3.2
Syracuse	Boston College	-1.6	-3.0	-2.2
Rutgers	Michigan St.	-8.2	-9.5	-9.5
Purdue	Indiana	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
Michigan	Ohio St.	-13.6	-11.4	-14.8
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	14.0	14.1	14.7
Wake Forest	Duke	5.9	4.8	7.1
Georgia St.	Appalachian St.	-6.8	-5.8	-6.5
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	4.4	3.6	3.9
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	2.3	2.1	1.3
Kentucky	Louisville	-6.0	-5.9	-7.1
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-13.3	-15.3	-15.0
Maryland	Penn St.	-24.0	-21.5	-24.8
Illinois	Northwestern	-21.9	-20.0	-23.1
Rice	North Texas	-12.7	-12.6	-13.2
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-27.1	-26.5	-28.5
Air Force	Utah St.	-0.3	0.9	-0.3
Marshall	Southern Miss.	8.0	8.3	9.2
Nevada	UNLV	3.8	4.0	4.7
Washington	Washington St.	11.8	11.8	12.1
San Jose St.	Wyoming	-26.8	-25.4	-27.0
Utah	Colorado	2.7	4.6	4.7
Louisiana-Monroe	Arkansas St.	-8.3	-8.7	-10.3
Middle Tennessee	Old Dominion	6.9	5.8	7.7
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-19.4	-16.0	-19.2
Stanford	Notre Dame	5.3	4.8	4.3
South Carolina	Clemson	-18.2	-16.7	-18.4
LSU	Texas A&M	11.2	11.1	12.2
Fresno St.	Boise St.	-8.2	-7.7	-8.0
SMU	Tulane	6.9	7.1	6.8
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	41.7	37.8	43.5
Arizona St.	Arizona	0.6	1.2	1.3
Oklahoma	West Virginia	18.4	16.8	19.0
Oregon	Oregon St.	16.6	14.9	17.3
New Mexico St.	Idaho	9.9	7.5	9.1
Louisiana-Lafayette	Georgia Southern	8.3	7.9	9.0
Tulsa	Temple	5.1	3.9	4.7
Louisiana Tech	UTSA	-0.2	-0.5	-0.5
Memphis	East Carolina	27.0	24.9	27.7
UAB	UTEP	16.1	13.1	17.8
Auburn	Alabama	-7.3	-5.9	-6.0
Florida	Florida St.	-8.9	-8.4	-7.9
Hawaii	BYU	-3.4	-2.2	-3.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Retro Rankings

Based on what the teams have done for the entire season and not forward looking

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Miami (Fla)
3	Clemson
4	Wisconsin
5	Oklahoma
6	Georgia
7	Ohio St.
8	Central Florida
9	Notre Dame
10	Penn St.
11	Auburn
12	USC
13	TCU
14	Washington
15	Mississippi St.
16	Virginia Tech
17	Washington St.
18	Michigan
19	Oklahoma St.
20	Memphis
21	Michigan St.
22	Stanford
23	Northwestern
24	North Carolina St.
25	Boise St.
26	LSU
27	Wake Forest
28	Iowa St.
29	Iowa
30	South Florida
31	South Carolina
32	Boston College
33	Texas A&M
34	Louisville
35	Toledo
36	San Diego St.
37	Texas
38	Florida Atlantic
39	Oregon
40	Georgia Tech
41	West Virginia
42	Arizona
43	Navy
44	Florida St.
45	Arizona St.
46	Purdue
47	Kentucky
48	Northern Illinois
49	Missouri
50	Fresno St.
51	Kansas St.
52	Indiana
53	UCLA
54	Troy
55	Houston
56	Army
57	Ohio
58	Texas Tech
59	Virginia
60	SMU
61	Utah
62	California
63	North Texas
64	Duke
65	Florida
66	Wyoming
67	Syracuse
68	Maryland
69	Minnesota
70	Marshall
71	Ole Miss
72	Colorado
73	Western Michigan
74	Nebraska
75	Colorado St.
76	Central Michigan
77	Tulane
78	Pittsburgh
79	Utah St.
80	Arkansas St.
81	Temple
82	Tennessee
83	Akron
84	Arkansas
85	Southern Miss.
86	Florida Int’l.
87	Appalachian St.
88	North Carolina
89	Rutgers
90	UAB
91	Vanderbilt
92	UTSA
93	Georgia St.
94	Eastern Michigan
95	Buffalo
96	Air Force
97	Western Kentucky
98	Louisiana Tech
99	Middle Tennessee
100	Miami (O)
101	UNLV
102	Tulsa
103	Cincinnati
104	Connecticut
105	East Carolina
106	Massachusetts
107	Old Dominion
108	UL-Monroe
109	UL-Lafayette
110	New Mexico St.
111	Baylor
112	South Alabama
113	Illinois
114	BYU
115	Nevada
116	New Mexico
117	Idaho
118	Oregon St.
119	Bowling Green
120	Hawaii
121	Kent St.
122	Kansas
123	Coastal Carolina
124	Georgia Southern
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

PiRate Ratings For This Week

Forward Looking Predictive Ratings totally unrelated to rankings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	137.9	134.3	136.7	136.3
2	Ohio St.	132.2	129.9	132.6	131.6
3	Auburn	128.5	126.4	128.8	127.9
4	Clemson	128.6	126.1	128.1	127.6
5	Georgia	126.2	126.1	126.5	126.3
6	Oklahoma	125.1	123.9	125.9	125.0
7	Penn St.	125.2	124.1	125.5	124.9
8	Miami	125.4	123.7	124.6	124.6
9	Washington	125.0	122.9	124.9	124.3
10	Wisconsin	124.2	121.7	123.1	123.0
11	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
12	T C U	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
13	U S C	119.4	118.6	119.0	119.0
14	Stanford	119.6	118.0	118.8	118.8
15	Virginia Tech	118.8	118.2	118.6	118.5
16	L S U	117.7	115.5	118.0	117.1
17	Notre Dame	117.3	116.2	117.6	117.0
18	Florida St.	116.7	115.8	115.2	115.9
19	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
20	Louisville	115.8	114.9	115.6	115.4
21	Michigan	115.6	115.5	114.8	115.3
22	Central Florida	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
23	Washington St.	115.2	113.0	114.8	114.3
24	Mississippi St.	114.3	114.3	114.2	114.3
25	Texas	113.9	114.0	114.6	114.2
26	Northwestern	114.0	112.9	114.0	113.6
27	Wake Forest	113.5	111.6	113.7	112.9
28	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
29	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
30	Iowa	110.9	111.2	110.1	110.8
31	Georgia Tech	111.9	109.8	110.5	110.7
32	Memphis	110.0	109.2	110.8	110.0
33	West Virginia	109.6	110.1	109.9	109.9
34	Boston College	109.7	109.6	109.6	109.6
35	Missouri	109.7	107.8	109.1	108.9
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Texas A&M	109.5	107.4	108.8	108.6
38	Duke	109.1	108.3	108.1	108.5
39	S. Carolina	108.9	107.9	108.1	108.3
40	Oregon	108.7	106.7	108.0	107.8
41	Kentucky	108.3	107.5	107.0	107.6
42	Boise St.	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
43	Arizona	107.3	105.9	106.3	106.5
44	Indiana	106.3	106.3	106.8	106.5
45	Utah	106.2	106.6	106.2	106.3
46	Arizona St.	106.5	105.5	106.1	106.0
47	Florida	106.3	105.9	105.8	106.0
48	Pittsburgh	106.1	105.8	105.8	105.9
49	Michigan St.	104.9	105.8	105.9	105.5
50	Colorado	106.5	105.1	104.5	105.3
51	Purdue	104.6	104.6	105.0	104.7
52	Syracuse	105.1	103.6	104.4	104.4
53	California	105.4	103.2	103.8	104.1
54	Ole Miss	104.7	103.4	103.5	103.9
55	U C L A	104.0	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Texas Tech	103.4	103.3	102.9	103.2
57	Virginia	103.0	102.0	103.3	102.8
58	San Diego St.	102.2	102.2	103.3	102.6
59	Toledo	101.9	101.9	103.7	102.5
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Houston	101.9	101.7	101.9	101.8
62	Minnesota	101.8	102.7	100.9	101.8
63	Navy	100.7	101.2	101.0	100.9
64	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
65	Florida Atlantic	99.3	101.0	101.0	100.4
66	Army	99.5	99.5	99.8	99.6
67	Tennessee	99.9	98.3	98.1	98.8
68	Ohio U	98.0	99.4	98.9	98.8
69	Wyoming	99.3	98.2	98.6	98.7
70	Nebraska	98.6	99.1	98.1	98.6
71	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
72	Maryland	98.3	99.6	97.7	98.5
73	Arkansas	98.8	98.1	98.5	98.5
74	SMU	97.8	98.3	98.1	98.1
75	Vanderbilt	98.5	97.7	97.2	97.8
76	Western Michigan	97.5	96.7	98.4	97.5
77	Fresno St.	96.7	95.7	97.3	96.6
78	Northern Illinois	96.1	95.9	97.2	96.4
79	Eastern Michigan	95.7	95.8	96.1	95.9
80	Tulsa	95.9	95.4	95.7	95.7
81	Troy	95.5	95.7	95.1	95.4
82	Central Michigan	94.7	95.1	95.5	95.1
83	Arkansas St.	94.3	95.5	95.5	95.1
84	Utah St.	95.3	94.4	95.1	94.9
85	Tulane	93.9	94.1	94.3	94.1
86	Temple	93.8	94.5	94.0	94.1
87	Oregon St.	94.1	93.9	92.6	93.5
88	Rutgers	93.7	93.4	93.4	93.5
89	Appalachian St.	93.6	92.4	93.4	93.1
90	Marshall	91.7	93.0	93.3	92.7
91	Air Force	91.9	92.4	91.8	92.0
92	W. Kentucky	90.4	90.6	91.1	90.7
93	Massachusetts	90.5	89.7	90.8	90.3
94	U T S A	89.2	91.4	90.2	90.2
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Nevada	88.7	90.4	89.8	89.6
97	Illinois	89.5	90.5	88.5	89.5
98	BYU	89.6	89.5	89.3	89.4
99	Akron	87.9	90.0	88.6	88.8
100	N. Texas	87.5	88.8	88.4	88.2
101	Middle Tennessee	86.6	87.7	87.6	87.3
102	Southern Miss.	86.7	87.8	87.2	87.2
103	Buffalo	85.6	87.8	87.5	87.0
104	U N L V	86.4	87.8	86.5	86.9
105	Louisiana Tech	86.0	87.8	86.6	86.8
106	East Carolina	86.0	87.3	86.1	86.5
107	N. Mexico St.	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
108	Florida Int’l.	84.7	85.4	85.3	85.2
109	Connecticut	84.4	86.2	84.6	85.1
110	Cincinnati	84.0	85.8	84.8	84.9
111	New Mexico	84.6	84.5	85.1	84.7
112	UL-Lafayette	84.0	84.9	84.0	84.3
113	Georgia St.	84.3	84.1	84.3	84.3
114	Old Dominion	82.6	85.0	82.9	83.5
115	UL-Monroe	83.0	83.8	82.2	83.0
116	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
117	Hawaii	82.2	83.3	81.7	82.4
118	UAB	81.3	81.2	83.1	81.9
119	S. Alabama	80.7	82.7	80.9	81.4
120	Bowling Green	80.5	81.6	80.8	81.0
121	Idaho	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
122	Georgia Southern	78.6	80.0	78.0	78.9
123	Kent St.	73.7	75.2	74.0	74.3
124	Texas St.	73.6	75.7	72.9	74.1
125	Rice	72.8	74.2	73.2	73.4
126	Coastal Carolina	72.4	73.8	73.1	73.1
127	Charlotte	69.2	71.5	69.4	70.0
128	San Jose St.	69.5	69.8	68.6	69.3
129	U T E P	68.2	71.1	68.3	69.2
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	7-0	10-0	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
South Florida	6-1	9-1	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	3-4	5-6	93.8	94.5	94.0	94.1
East Carolina	2-5	3-8	86.0	87.3	86.1	86.5
Connecticut	2-5	3-8	84.4	86.2	84.6	85.1
Cincinnati	1-6	3-8	84.0	85.8	84.8	84.9
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	6-1	9-1	110.0	109.2	110.8	110.0
Houston	4-3	6-4	101.9	101.7	101.9	101.8
Navy	4-3	6-4	100.7	101.2	101.0	100.9
SMU	3-4	6-5	97.8	98.3	98.1	98.1
Tulsa	1-6	2-9	95.9	95.4	95.7	95.7
Tulane	3-4	5-6	93.9	94.1	94.3	94.1
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	10-1	128.6	126.1	128.1	127.6
Florida St.	3-5	4-6	116.7	115.8	115.2	115.9
N. Carolina St.	5-2	7-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Louisville	4-4	7-4	115.8	114.9	115.6	115.4
Wake Forest	4-3	7-4	113.5	111.6	113.7	112.9
Boston College	3-4	6-5	109.7	109.6	109.6	109.6
Syracuse	2-5	4-7	105.1	103.6	104.4	104.4
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-0	10-0	125.4	123.7	124.6	124.6
Virginia Tech	4-3	8-3	118.8	118.2	118.6	118.5
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-5	111.9	109.8	110.5	110.7
Duke	2-5	5-6	109.1	108.3	108.1	108.5
Pittsburgh	2-5	4-7	106.1	105.8	105.8	105.9
Virginia	3-4	6-5	103.0	102.0	103.3	102.8
N. Carolina	1-6	3-8	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.0	111.9	112.5	112.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	7-1	10-1	125.1	123.9	125.9	125.0
Oklahoma St.	5-3	8-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	6-2	9-2	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
Texas	5-3	6-5	113.9	114.0	114.6	114.2
Iowa State	5-3	7-4	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Kansas St.	4-4	6-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-3	7-4	109.6	110.1	109.9	109.9
Texas Tech	2-6	5-6	103.4	103.3	102.9	103.2
Baylor	1-7	1-10	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-8	1-10	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	7-1	9-2	132.2	129.9	132.6	131.6
Penn St.	6-2	9-2	125.2	124.1	125.5	124.9
Michigan	5-3	8-3	115.6	115.5	114.8	115.3
Indiana	2-6	5-6	106.3	106.3	106.8	106.5
Michigan St.	6-2	8-3	104.9	105.8	105.9	105.5
Maryland	2-6	4-7	98.3	99.6	97.7	98.5
Rutgers	3-5	4-7	93.7	93.4	93.4	93.5
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	8-0	11-0	124.2	121.7	123.1	123.0
Northwestern	6-2	8-3	114.0	112.9	114.0	113.6
Iowa	3-5	6-5	110.9	111.2	110.1	110.8
Purdue	3-5	5-6	104.6	104.6	105.0	104.7
Minnesota	2-6	5-6	101.8	102.7	100.9	101.8
Nebraska	3-5	4-7	98.6	99.1	98.1	98.6
Illinois	0-8	2-9	89.5	90.5	88.5	89.5
Big Ten Averages			108.6	108.4	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	7-0	8-3	99.3	101.0	101.0	100.4
Marshall	4-3	7-4	91.7	93.0	93.3	92.7
W. Kentucky	4-3	6-5	90.4	90.6	91.1	90.7
Middle Tennessee	3-4	5-6	86.6	87.7	87.6	87.3
Florida Int’l.	4-3	6-4	84.7	85.4	85.3	85.2
Old Dominion	3-4	5-6	82.6	85.0	82.9	83.5
Charlotte	1-6	1-10	69.2	71.5	69.4	70.0
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-4	6-4	89.2	91.4	90.2	90.2
N. Texas	6-1	8-3	87.5	88.8	88.4	88.2
Southern Miss.	5-2	7-4	86.7	87.8	87.2	87.2
Louisiana Tech	3-4	5-6	86.0	87.8	86.6	86.8
UAB	5-2	7-4	81.3	81.2	83.1	81.9
Rice	1-6	1-10	72.8	74.2	73.2	73.4
U T E P	0-7	0-11	68.2	71.1	68.3	69.2
CUSA Averages			84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-2	117.3	116.2	117.6	117.0
Army		8-3	99.5	99.5	99.8	99.6
Massachusetts		4-7	90.5	89.7	90.8	90.3
BYU		3-9	89.6	89.5	89.3	89.4
Indep. Averages			99.2	98.7	99.4	99.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-2	8-3	98.0	99.4	98.9	98.8
Miami (O)	3-4	4-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Akron	5-2	6-5	87.9	90.0	88.6	88.8
Buffalo	3-4	5-6	85.6	87.8	87.5	87.0
Bowling Green	2-5	2-9	80.5	81.6	80.8	81.0
Kent St.	1-6	2-9	73.7	75.2	74.0	74.3
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	6-1	9-2	101.9	101.9	103.7	102.5
Western Michigan	4-3	6-5	97.5	96.7	98.4	97.5
Northern Illinois	6-1	8-3	96.1	95.9	97.2	96.4
Eastern Michigan	2-5	4-7	95.7	95.8	96.1	95.9
Central Michigan	5-2	7-4	94.7	95.1	95.5	95.1
Ball St.	0-7	2-9	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-0	9-2	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-2	7-4	99.3	98.2	98.6	98.7
Utah St.	4-3	6-5	95.3	94.4	95.1	94.9
Air Force	3-4	4-7	91.9	92.4	91.8	92.0
New Mexico	1-6	3-8	84.6	84.5	85.1	84.7
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	5-2	9-2	102.2	102.2	103.3	102.6
Fresno St.	6-1	8-3	96.7	95.7	97.3	96.6
Nevada	2-5	2-9	88.7	90.4	89.8	89.6
U N L V	4-3	5-6	86.4	87.8	86.5	86.9
Hawaii	1-7	3-8	82.2	83.3	81.7	82.4
San Jose St.	0-7	1-11	69.5	69.8	68.6	69.3
MWC Averages			92.2	92.1	92.3	92.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	6-2	9-2	125.0	122.9	124.9	124.3
Stanford	7-2	8-3	119.6	118.0	118.8	118.8
Washington St.	6-2	9-2	115.2	113.0	114.8	114.3
Oregon	3-5	6-5	108.7	106.7	108.0	107.8
California	2-6	5-6	105.4	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-8	1-10	94.1	93.9	92.6	93.5
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	10-2	119.4	118.6	119.0	119.0
Arizona	5-3	7-4	107.3	105.9	106.3	106.5
Utah	2-6	5-6	106.2	106.6	106.2	106.3
Arizona St.	5-3	6-5	106.5	105.5	106.1	106.0
Colorado	2-6	5-6	106.5	105.1	104.5	105.3
U C L A	3-5	5-6	104.0	103.3	103.5	103.6
Pac-12 Averages			109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	10-1	126.2	126.1	126.5	126.3
Missouri	3-4	6-5	109.7	107.8	109.1	108.9
S. Carolina	5-3	8-3	108.9	107.9	108.1	108.3
Kentucky	4-4	7-4	108.3	107.5	107.0	107.6
Florida	3-5	4-6	106.3	105.9	105.8	106.0
Tennessee	0-7	4-7	99.9	98.3	98.1	98.8
Vanderbilt	0-7	4-7	98.5	97.7	97.2	97.8
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-0	11-0	137.9	134.3	136.7	136.3
Auburn	6-1	9-2	128.5	126.4	128.8	127.9
L S U	5-2	8-3	117.7	115.5	118.0	117.1
Mississippi St.	4-3	8-3	114.3	114.3	114.2	114.3
Texas A&M	4-3	7-4	109.5	107.4	108.8	108.6
Ole Miss	2-5	5-6	104.7	103.4	103.5	103.9
Arkansas	1-6	4-7	98.8	98.1	98.5	98.5
SEC Averages			112.1	110.8	111.5	111.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	5-1	8-2	95.5	95.7	95.1	95.4
Arkansas St.	5-1	6-3	94.3	95.5	95.5	95.1
Appalachian St.	5-1	6-4	93.6	92.4	93.4	93.1
N. Mexico St.	2-4	4-6	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
UL-Lafayette	4-2	5-5	84.0	84.9	84.0	84.3
Georgia St.	5-1	6-3	84.3	84.1	84.3	84.3
UL-Monroe	4-3	4-6	83.0	83.8	82.2	83.0
S. Alabama	3-4	4-7	80.7	82.7	80.9	81.4
Idaho	2-4	3-7	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
Georgia Southern	1-5	1-9	78.6	80.0	78.0	78.9
Texas St.	1-6	2-9	73.6	75.7	72.9	74.1
Coastal Carolina	1-6	2-9	72.4	73.8	73.1	73.1
Sun Belt Averages			83.8	84.5	83.8	84.0

Conference Ratings

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.0	111.9	112.5	112.5
2	SEC	112.1	110.8	111.5	111.4
3	BIG 12	109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
5	BIG TEN	108.6	108.4	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	99.2	98.7	99.4	99.1
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.2	92.1	92.3	92.2
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
11	Sun Belt	83.8	84.5	83.8	84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	La. Tech	UL-Lafayette
Cure	AAC	SBC	Houston	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Boise St.	Stanford
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Colorado St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	MAC	SMU	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Utah St.]	Marshall
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	Florida Int’l.	Toledo
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Central Mich.	Wyoming
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	[UAB]	[UNLV]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	ARMY	[Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Akron	Appalachian St.
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Central Florida	San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	[UCLA]	UTSA
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	[Utah]	[Western Mich.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Kansas St.	Arizona
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Florida St.	[Western Ky.]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	Boston College	Iowa
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Southern Miss.]	Oregon
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Missouri
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	Navy	Virginia
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Michigan	Washington
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	Oklahoma St.	Washington St.
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Wake Forest	South Carolina
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Louisville	Arizona St.
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Indiana	Kentucky
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Ohio St.
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	NC St.	Miss. St.
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	West Virginia	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Penn St.	USC
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Clemson	Notre Dame
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan St.	LSU
Peach	At-large	At-large	Memphis	TCU
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Northwestern	Auburn
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Miami (Fla.)	Oklahoma
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Alabama	Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Oklahoma
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Championship Games and Bowl Eligibles By Conference

If you are a fan of a team that will finish 5-6 or 5-7, you can forget your team playing in a bowl with a losing record this season.  In fact, we project two bowl eligible teams to miss out on all the fun this year, as we project 80 teams to be bowl eligible this season.

American Athletic

The UCF-USF winner this week will face Memphis for the conference championship.  It looks like UCF and Memphis will meet in Orlando in a rematch game.  UCF won the first one convincingly, but Memphis is several points better now than then.  The winner of this game almost assuredly plays in the New Year’s Six Bowl as the Group of 5 Representative, and it will more than likely be at the Peach Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy, Houston, SMU)

5-Wins: Temple and Tulane

Temple must win at Tulsa, which is doable but less than 50-50.

Tulane must win at SMU, which is also doable but less than 50-50 and less then Temple’s chances.

Atlantic Coast 

Clemson will play Miami (Fla.) in Charlotte.  The winner has about a 92% chance of gaining a Playoff spot, while the loser will most likely get an Orange Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville, NC St., Boston College, Miami, Va. Tech, Virginia

5-Wins: Georgia Tech and Duke

Georgia Tech would have to pull off the monumental upset of Georgia, which they may have about a 3-5% chance of doing.

Duke must win at Wake Forest, and the Demon Deacons are playing like a top 20 team.  The Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech, so they could be peaking at the right time.

4-Wins: Florida St.

The Seminoles were able to reschedule their cancelled hurricane game with UL-Monroe, and now they can become bowl eligible by beating Florida and ULM.  We believe their chances to get to 6-6 are about 70-75% in their favor.

Big 12

Oklahoma has clinched the top seed in the renewal of the Big 12 Championship Game.  TCU needs to beat Baylor this week to get the number two seed.  If the Horn Frogs croak against the Bears, then Oklahoma St. will get the bid with a win over hapless Kansas.  There is a very remote chance that Iowa St. could still get in, but it would require too many things to take place.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (Oklahoma, TCU, Okla. St., Iowa St., Texas, West Virginia, Kansas St.)

5-Wins: Texas Tech

Texas Tech closes the season at Texas, and we believe the Longhorns will handle the Red Raiders and most likely end the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock.

Big Ten

Wisconsin and Ohio State have clinched their divisions and will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Badgers’ defense may be up to the task to handle an inconsistent Buckeye offense.  If so, UW is Playoff-bound.  A Buckeye win opens the door for a one-loss Miami or one-loss Alabama team to get this bid, or if Miami and Alabama are unbeaten, there will be a big controversy over the #4 seed between a 2-loss Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Notre Dame, and maybe even an undefeated UCF if they win their last two games.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 8) (Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa)

5-Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota.

Indiana and Purdue play for the Old Oaken Bucket and a bowl bid, as the winner will be 6-6.

Minnesota must beat undefeated Wisconsin to finish 6-6.  With the Gophers’ offense struggling, and the Badgers defense peaking, UW could win this won in an ugly fashion in the neighborhood of 20-6.

Conference USA

This conference is going to strike it rich this bowl season with a possible 10 teams playing in December.

First, Florida Atlantic and North Texas will square off in one of the potentially best championship games in this league’s history.  Win or lose, we are hearing from sources that the Boca Raton Bowl would love to invite hometown team FAU.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (guaranteed to have 9) (Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l., Marshall, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA)

5-Wins: Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion play each other in Murfreesboro this week, so the winner will become bowl eligible.

Louisiana Tech hosts UTSA with a slumping offense, and we give the Bulldogs a 70% chance of winning this game and becoming the 10th bowl eligible CUSA team.  There will be slots available possibly for all 10 teams, and it is possible that two CUSA could face off in a bowl.

Independents

Army is 8-3 with the Navy game remaining.  The Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl bound.

Notre Dame actually counts with the ACC teams, so they are part of the ACC package, and we believe the Irish will  be enjoying Oranges this year, but only if they get by Stanford this week,.

Mid-American

Akron beat Ohio to win the Eastern Division title.  The Zips will play Toledo or Northern Illinois.  TU can clinch the Western Division title with a win at home against Western Michigan or a Northern Illinois loss at Central Michigan.  NIU can win if they beat CMU and WMU beats Toledo.

This league will receive an extra bid and possibly two extra bids.  See Below

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Akron, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan)

5-Wins: Buffalo

Buffalo hosts Ohio U this week, and a Bulls win will give them a 6-6 record.  There is a catch.  Buffalo most likely needs Louisiana Tech or Florida State to lose this week to guarantee a decent shot at a bowl.  We have the Bulls as team #79 in a 78-team bowl field.  There is another little possibility that could help Buffalo get over the top ahead of another bowl eligible team.  The MAC has two secondary bowl agreements, with the Quick Lane and the Foster Farms bowls.

Toledo at 10-2 might be attractive enough for the Foster Farms Bowl to invite the Rockets west to face Oregon, Stanford, Washington, or California.  The Quick Lane is most likely going to need a MAC team as well, so Buffalo could sneak in to a bowl through this back door ahead of a 10th CUSA team.

Mountain West

Here is where a conference championship game will not be as exciting as it should be, unless something really interesting takes place this week.  Boise State and Fresno State have clinched berths in the MWC Championship Game, but the two teams close out the regular season facing each other, so it will be an immediate rematch.  The Las Vegas Bowl bid goes to the winner of the second game.  Even if the Conference Champion loses by 50 points this week and wins by 1 next week, that team gets the Las Vegas Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Boise St., Colorado St., Wyoming, Utah St., Fresno St., San Diego St.)

5-Wins: UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels must win their rivalry game against Nevada, and they must do it in Reno.  UNLV has about a 50-50 shot at pulling it off, giving the MWC 7 bowl teams for 5 bowls.  Two at-large slots will be waiting for the 6th and 7th teams.

Pac-12

USC has clinched the South Division, and the Trojans hold a very minute chance of sneaking into the Playoffs.  More than likely, they are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game for a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

The North Division is still up for grabs between Washington State and Stanford.  If Washington State wins the Apple Cup, then the Pirate Mike Leach will have his team in the Championship Game.  If Washington wins, then Stanford takes the treasure away from the Pirate.

The bigger news in the Pac-12 is the firing of UCLA coach Jim Mora, Jr.  The Bruins still have a game to go at home against California, and the winner will be bowl eligible.  UCLA is actually hoping it can win the Chip Kelly Bowl.  Kelly is rumored to be headed to Westwood, but it is not confirmed.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 9) (Washington St., Stanford, Washington, Oregon, USC, Arizona St., Arizona)

5-Win Teams: California, UCLA, Utah, Colorado

Cal plays at UCLA, and the Bears hope they can swim with the Fisch’s.  Jedd Fisch will be UCLA coach for one or two games.

Colorado visits Utah, so the winner of that game will also be bowl eligible.

Look for the Pac-12 to place 2 at-large teams in bowls back east, most likely the two winners this week.

Southeastern

Normally a league with double digit bowl participants, the SEC is only going to have 9 teams playing in the postseason.

Georgia is waiting for the winner of the Iron Bowl to face off in the SEC Championship Game.  Auburn has become the sexy choice to knock off the number one Crimson Tide, but us old Buccaneers believe this just won’t happen.  We have Alabama set to be the top seed in the Playoffs, hosting team number four in the Sugar Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 9 (Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M)

5-Wins: None

Sun Belt

They have 12 teams in this league, but there is no championship game in the SBC.  The Sun Belt is most likely to have extra teams, including team number 80, or the second bowl eligible team left out of all the fun.

There are two weeks left in the SBC regular season, so there are some 4-6 teams still alive in the bowl hunt.

Bowl Eligible: 4 (Troy, Georgia St., Arkansas St., Appalachian St.)

5-Wins: UL-Lafayette

The Ragin’ Cajuns have two games left and need to win just one to most likely get their New Orleans Bowl bid that they always seem to get whenever they are bowl eligible.  ULL hosts 1-9 Georgia Southern this week and should secure their sixth win.  They finish at Appy State, where they are most likely to lose.

4-Wins: UL-Monroe and New Mexico St.

UL-Monroe has less than 0.5% chance of beating Arkansas St. at home this week and then winning at Florida St. the week after.  So, the Warhawks are basically out of the picture.

New Mexico St. has at least a 50-50 chance of finishing the season with wins over Idaho and South Alabama, both games in Las Cruces.  However, the Aggies do not have a great shot at getting into their first bowl since the 1960 Sun Bowl.  NMSU is leaving the Sun Belt and will become an independent next year.  The SBC has a history of being a tad bush league by shunning teams leaving their conference.  The Aggies have already told the league they can only accept bids to bowls close to home, and we believe they will get to spend the holidays very close to home, because they will not be invited to a bowl if they finish 6-6.  Of course, if two from Louisiana Tech, Buffalo, and Florida State lose, and if Duke loses to Wake Forest and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, then the Aggies will get an invitation at 6-6.  Whether or not they accept it, we cannot predict.

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have a festive Thanksgiving holiday.  Don’t let your tummy be the biggest loser this week.  Pace yourself and try to get some exercise.

Our schedule will be a little different this week.  We are putting out our Monday edition today on Sunday.  We will have both the NFL ratings and Money Line picks on Tuesday, and then we will return next Sunday night or Monday morning.

Thank You to all our followers.  You have made 2017 a record year for PiRate Rating readership.  A lot of you came on board back during March Madness, because we were very lucky to successfully pick all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Our basketball coverage will return just after New Year’s, as our ratings need all the teams to play 8 games before they make any sense.

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Ohio	-10.3	-9.0	-10.9
Kent St.	Central Michigan	-18.5	-17.4	-19.0
Bowling Green	Toledo	-17.1	-16.1	-18.2
Miami (O)	Eastern Michigan	-4.6	-2.7	-3.9
Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	1.2	1.9	1.4
Ball St.	Buffalo	-16.9	-17.1	-18.3
South Florida	Tulsa	18.3	17.4	19.4
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	7.0	5.8	6.8
New Mexico	UNLV	1.8	0.1	2.4
Indiana	Rutgers	8.3	9.0	8.7
Georgia	Kentucky	19.6	20.5	20.7
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-3.0	-3.2	-4.3
Duke	Georgia Tech	-7.3	-5.2	-7.3
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	17.3	16.8	17.6
Temple	Central Florida	-15.1	-16.0	-15.9
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	-2.4	-3.5	-2.5
Louisville	Syracuse	6.2	6.8	6.7
Northwestern	Minnesota	7.8	5.8	8.5
Michigan St.	Maryland	9.6	9.2	11.4
West Virginia	Texas	2.3	2.3	2.3
Kansas	Oklahoma	-40.0	-35.4	-42.2
Wyoming	Fresno St.	8.6	8.2	7.4
Boise St.	Air Force	17.1	15.2	17.3
Utah St.	Hawaii	12.0	10.2	11.9
Old Dominion	Rice	14.6	15.6	14.7
Southern Miss.	Charlotte	15.0	13.8	15.2
BYU	Massachusetts	3.3	4.0	2.7
UTEP	Louisiana Tech	-14.5	-13.4	-15.0
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	-9.1	-9.7	-9.9
Texas Tech	TCU	-11.5	-9.8	-12.3
Iowa	Purdue	13.0	12.9	12.2
Oregon	Arizona	0.6	0.5	0.4
Ohio St.	Illinois	46.7	43.4	48.1
Florida	UAB	27.3	23.8	24.4
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-7.9	-7.5	-9.1
Memphis	SMU	13.2	12.2	13.4
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia	27.4	26.4	26.8
Baylor	Iowa St.	-11.6	-10.3	-12.7
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	-12.9	-13.5	-13.5
Vanderbilt	Missouri	-6.6	-5.4	-7.2
Washington	Utah	25.1	21.7	25.4
Auburn	UL-Monroe	49.5	46.6	50.5
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	16.5	15.4	17.3
Colorado St.	San Jose St.	35.2	33.9	35.9
Penn St.	Nebraska	32.1	29.9	33.3
Tennessee	LSU	-14.4	-13.8	-16.5
Notre Dame	Navy	20.9	18.7	21.3
Tulane	Houston	-7.7	-6.9	-7.7
UL-Lafayatte	New Mexico St.	-2.4	0.6	-2.7
Idaho	Coastal Carolina	13.8	13.6	13.9
North Texas	Army	-12.1	-10.2	-11.8
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	24.2	23.1	26.0
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	13.4	15.1	14.2
Boston College (n)	Connecticut	26.7	24.4	26.5
UTSA	Marshall	0.3	1.3	-0.5
Ole Miss	Texas A&M	-1.0	-0.4	-1.3
Wisconsin	Michigan	11.1	8.6	10.6
USC	UCLA	17.8	17.5	18.3
Stanford	California	16.9	17.3	18.3
San Diego St.	Nevada	16.1	14.2	15.8

FBS vs. FCS Games

Home	Visitor	PiRate
Clemson	Citadel	50.0
Alabama	Mercer	49.0
Florida St.	Delaware St.	50.0
North Carolina	Western Carolina	24.0
South Carolina	Wofford	27.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Miami (Fla)
3	Clemson
4	Wisconsin
5	Oklahoma
6	Georgia
7	Ohio St.
8	Central Florida
9	Notre Dame
10	Penn St.
11	Auburn
12	USC
13	Oklahoma St.
14	Michigan
15	TCU
16	Washington
17	Washington St.
18	Mississippi St.
19	North Carolina St.
20	Memphis
21	Virginia Tech
22	Michigan St.
23	Stanford
24	Iowa
25	Boise St.
26	LSU
27	Northwestern
28	Wake Forest
29	Iowa St.
30	South Florida
31	Arizona
32	South Carolina
33	West Virginia
34	Georgia Tech
35	Boston College
36	San Diego St.
37	Toledo
38	Houston
39	Louisville
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	Navy
43	Florida Atlantic
44	Kentucky
45	Army
46	Arizona St.
47	Ohio
48	Oregon
49	Florida St.
50	Northern Illinois
51	SMU
52	UCLA
53	Texas Tech
54	Troy
55	Missouri
56	Utah
57	California
58	Syracuse
59	Fresno St.
60	Wyoming
61	Marshall
62	Purdue
63	Virginia
64	Minnesota
65	Ole Miss
66	Kansas St.
67	Indiana
68	North Texas
69	Maryland
70	Western Michigan
71	Florida
72	Colorado
73	Nebraska
74	Colorado St.
75	Duke
76	Central Michigan
77	Pittsburgh
78	Temple
79	Tennessee
80	Arkansas St.
81	Rutgers
82	Utah St.
83	Arkansas
84	Florida Int’l.
85	UAB
86	Vanderbilt
87	Tulane
88	Akron
89	Southern Miss.
90	Appalachian St.
91	North Carolina
92	Georgia St.
93	Air Force
94	Middle Tennessee
95	Eastern Michigan
96	Buffalo
97	Miami (O)
98	UTSA
99	Cincinnati
100	Louisiana Tech
101	Western Kentucky
102	Tulsa
103	UNLV
104	New Mexico St.
105	South Alabama
106	Connecticut
107	Old Dominion
108	BYU
109	UL-Monroe
110	Baylor
111	Massachusetts
112	Illinois
113	Nevada
114	UL-Lafayette
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	Oregon St.
118	East Carolina
119	Bowling Green
120	Hawaii
121	Kent St.
122	Kansas
123	Ball St.
124	Rice
125	Charlotte
126	Texas St.
127	Coastal Carolina
128	Georgia Southern
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

 

 

PiRate Predictive Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	137.6	134.0	136.4	136.0
2	Ohio St.	132.7	130.4	133.1	132.1
3	Auburn	129.0	126.9	129.3	128.4
4	Clemson	128.1	125.6	127.6	127.1
5	Penn St.	126.6	125.2	127.1	126.3
6	Washington	126.8	124.3	126.9	126.0
7	Georgia	125.5	125.6	125.6	125.6
8	Miami	126.3	124.4	125.7	125.5
9	Oklahoma	125.0	123.7	125.8	124.8
10	Oklahoma St.	123.1	122.2	123.7	123.0
11	Wisconsin	123.8	121.2	122.6	122.6
12	Stanford	120.2	118.5	119.7	119.5
13	U S C	119.7	118.8	119.5	119.3
14	Virginia Tech	119.6	118.9	119.5	119.3
15	T C U	118.6	116.9	118.9	118.1
16	Notre Dame	118.2	116.8	118.7	117.9
17	L S U	117.5	115.3	117.8	116.9
18	N. Carolina St.	116.9	116.1	116.9	116.6
19	Michigan	115.7	115.7	115.0	115.5
20	Florida St.	116.2	115.3	114.7	115.4
21	Mississippi St.	114.5	114.5	114.6	114.5
22	Georgia Tech	115.5	113.0	114.3	114.3
23	Washington St.	114.9	112.7	114.5	114.0
24	Central Florida	112.7	114.1	113.8	113.6
25	Iowa State	112.6	112.6	113.7	113.0
26	Iowa	112.9	113.0	112.3	112.8
27	Texas	112.1	112.4	112.6	112.4
28	Louisville	112.3	111.4	112.1	111.9
29	Wake Forest	112.5	110.6	112.5	111.8
30	West Virginia	111.4	111.7	111.9	111.7
31	Northwestern	110.4	109.3	110.3	110.0
32	South Florida	110.1	109.0	110.7	109.9
33	Boston College	109.9	109.6	109.9	109.8
34	Kansas St.	109.6	109.8	109.4	109.6
35	Memphis	108.8	108.1	109.4	108.7
36	S. Carolina	109.1	108.1	108.3	108.5
37	Arizona	109.2	107.6	108.4	108.4
38	Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.4	108.4
39	Kentucky	109.0	108.0	107.9	108.3
40	Texas A&M	109.1	107.1	108.3	108.2
41	Missouri	108.5	106.6	107.8	107.6
42	Boise St.	107.0	105.5	107.2	106.6
43	Oregon	106.8	105.0	105.9	105.9
44	Florida	106.2	105.6	105.4	105.7
45	Minnesota	105.6	106.5	104.8	105.6
46	Michigan St.	104.9	105.8	106.0	105.6
47	Arizona St.	105.8	104.9	105.4	105.4
48	Duke	105.7	105.3	104.5	105.2
49	Pittsburgh	105.3	105.1	104.9	105.1
50	Colorado	106.2	104.8	104.2	105.0
51	Utah	104.7	105.5	104.5	104.9
52	Texas Tech	104.6	104.5	104.1	104.4
53	Ole Miss	105.1	103.7	104.0	104.3
54	California	104.8	102.7	102.9	103.5
55	Houston	103.4	103.0	103.6	103.3
56	Indiana	102.9	103.1	103.2	103.1
57	Purdue	102.9	103.1	103.1	103.0
58	U C L A	103.4	102.8	102.7	103.0
59	San Diego St.	102.0	101.9	102.9	102.3
60	Virginia	101.8	101.0	101.9	101.6
61	N. Carolina	102.1	101.2	101.2	101.5
62	Toledo	100.7	100.8	102.4	101.3
63	Colo. State	101.5	100.5	101.3	101.1
64	Army	100.9	100.6	101.4	101.0
65	Navy	100.3	101.1	100.4	100.6
66	Wyoming	100.7	99.4	100.0	100.0
67	Ohio U	99.1	100.2	100.2	99.8
68	Vanderbilt	99.9	99.1	98.7	99.2
69	Florida Atlantic	98.0	100.0	99.5	99.2
70	Tennessee	100.1	98.5	98.3	99.0
71	SMU	98.5	98.9	99.0	98.8
72	Maryland	98.3	99.6	97.6	98.5
73	Baylor	98.0	99.4	98.0	98.5
74	Arkansas	98.6	97.9	98.1	98.2
75	Western Michigan	97.7	96.8	98.6	97.7
76	Nebraska	97.5	98.3	96.8	97.5
77	Rutgers	97.6	97.1	97.5	97.4
78	Northern Illinois	95.9	95.8	97.0	96.2
79	Eastern Michigan	95.8	95.8	96.2	95.9
80	Arkansas St.	94.5	95.7	95.7	95.3
81	Troy	95.2	95.4	94.8	95.1
82	Central Michigan	94.7	95.1	95.5	95.1
83	Fresno St.	95.0	94.2	95.6	95.0
84	Temple	94.6	95.1	95.0	94.9
85	Tulsa	94.8	94.6	94.3	94.6
86	Oregon St.	94.8	94.5	93.3	94.2
87	Air Force	92.8	93.3	92.9	93.0
88	Tulane	92.7	93.1	92.9	92.9
89	Appalachian St.	93.3	92.1	93.1	92.8
90	Marshall	91.8	93.0	93.5	92.8
91	Utah St.	92.6	91.8	92.2	92.2
92	W. Kentucky	90.7	90.8	91.5	91.0
93	U T S A	89.1	91.4	90.0	90.1
94	Massachusetts	90.3	89.5	90.6	90.1
95	BYU	90.1	90.0	89.8	89.9
96	Nevada	88.9	90.7	90.2	89.9
97	Miami (O)	88.6	90.7	89.8	89.7
98	Illinois	89.0	90.0	88.0	89.0
99	Cincinnati	87.9	89.5	89.0	88.8
100	Akron	86.8	89.2	87.3	87.8
101	N. Mexico St.	87.6	86.0	87.9	87.2
102	Buffalo	85.6	87.8	87.6	87.0
103	Middle Tennessee	86.3	87.5	87.2	87.0
104	U N L V	86.1	87.6	86.1	86.6
105	N. Texas	85.8	87.4	86.5	86.6
106	S. Alabama	85.7	87.7	85.9	86.4
107	Louisiana Tech	85.6	87.4	86.2	86.4
108	Florida Int’l.	86.0	86.4	86.8	86.4
109	New Mexico	84.9	84.7	85.5	85.0
110	Connecticut	84.2	86.2	84.3	84.9
111	Hawaii	84.6	85.6	84.3	84.8
112	Southern Miss.	84.2	85.3	84.7	84.7
113	Old Dominion	83.5	85.9	83.9	84.4
114	Georgia St.	84.0	83.8	84.0	84.0
115	UAB	81.4	84.2	83.5	83.0
116	East Carolina	82.4	83.9	82.2	82.8
117	UL-Lafayette	82.3	83.6	82.1	82.7
118	Kansas	81.9	85.3	80.6	82.6
119	UL-Monroe	82.5	83.3	81.7	82.5
120	Bowling Green	81.7	82.7	82.1	82.2
121	Idaho	81.1	82.2	81.9	81.7
122	Georgia Southern	74.6	76.0	74.0	74.9
123	Kent St.	73.7	75.2	74.0	74.3
124	Texas St.	73.4	75.5	72.7	73.9
125	Charlotte	72.2	74.5	72.4	73.0
126	Rice	71.9	73.3	72.2	72.5
127	Coastal Carolina	70.7	72.1	71.4	71.4
128	U T E P	68.6	71.5	68.7	69.6
129	San Jose St.	69.3	69.6	68.4	69.1
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.3	66.6

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	6-0	9-0	112.7	114.1	113.8	113.6
South Florida	5-1	8-1	110.1	109.0	110.7	109.9
Temple	3-3	5-5	94.6	95.1	95.0	94.9
Cincinnati	1-5	3-7	87.9	89.5	89.0	88.8
Connecticut	2-5	3-7	84.2	86.2	84.3	84.9
East Carolina	1-5	2-8	82.4	83.9	82.2	82.8
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	5-1	8-1	108.8	108.1	109.4	108.7
Houston	4-2	6-3	103.4	103.0	103.6	103.3
Navy	4-3	6-3	100.3	101.1	100.4	100.6
SMU	3-3	6-4	98.5	98.9	99.0	98.8
Tulsa	1-5	2-8	94.8	94.6	94.3	94.6
Tulane	2-4	4-6	92.7	93.1	92.9	92.9
AAC Averages			97.5	98.0	97.9	97.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	9-1	128.1	125.6	127.6	127.1
N. Carolina St.	5-1	7-3	116.9	116.1	116.9	116.6
Florida St.	3-5	3-6	116.2	115.3	114.7	115.4
Louisville	3-4	6-4	112.3	111.4	112.1	111.9
Wake Forest	3-3	6-4	112.5	110.6	112.5	111.8
Boston College	3-4	5-5	109.9	109.6	109.9	109.8
Syracuse	2-4	4-6	109.1	107.6	108.4	108.4
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	6-0	9-0	126.3	124.4	125.7	125.5
Virginia Tech	3-3	7-3	119.6	118.9	119.5	119.3
Georgia Tech	4-3	5-4	115.5	113.0	114.3	114.3
Duke	1-5	4-6	105.7	105.3	104.5	105.2
Pittsburgh	2-4	4-6	105.3	105.1	104.9	105.1
Virginia	3-3	6-4	101.8	101.0	101.9	101.6
N. Carolina	1-6	2-8	102.1	101.2	101.2	101.5
ACC Averages			113.0	111.8	112.4	112.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	6-1	9-1	125.0	123.7	125.8	124.8
Oklahoma St.	5-2	8-2	123.1	122.2	123.7	123.0
T C U	5-2	8-2	118.6	116.9	118.9	118.1
Iowa State	4-3	5-5	112.6	112.6	113.7	113.0
Texas	4-3	5-5	112.1	112.4	112.6	112.4
West Virginia	5-2	7-3	111.4	111.7	111.9	111.7
Kansas St.	3-4	5-5	109.6	109.8	109.4	109.6
Texas Tech	2-5	5-5	104.6	104.5	104.1	104.4
Baylor	1-6	1-9	98.0	99.4	98.0	98.5
Kansas	0-7	1-9	81.9	85.3	80.6	82.6
Big 12 Averages			109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	6-1	8-2	132.7	130.4	133.1	132.1
Penn St.	5-2	8-2	126.6	125.2	127.1	126.3
Michigan	5-2	8-2	115.7	115.7	115.0	115.5
Michigan St.	5-2	7-3	104.9	105.8	106.0	105.6
Indiana	1-6	4-6	102.9	103.1	103.2	103.1
Maryland	2-5	4-6	98.3	99.6	97.6	98.5
Rutgers	3-4	4-6	97.6	97.1	97.5	97.4
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	7-0	10-0	123.8	121.2	122.6	122.6
Iowa	3-4	6-4	112.9	113.0	112.3	112.8
Northwestern	5-2	7-3	110.4	109.3	110.3	110.0
Minnesota	2-5	5-5	105.6	106.5	104.8	105.6
Purdue	2-5	4-6	102.9	103.1	103.1	103.0
Nebraska	3-4	4-6	97.5	98.3	96.8	97.5
Illinois	0-7	2-8	89.0	90.0	88.0	89.0
Big Ten Averages			108.6	108.4	108.4	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	6-0	7-3	98.0	100.0	99.5	99.2
Marshall	4-2	7-3	91.8	93.0	93.5	92.8
W. Kentucky	3-3	5-5	90.7	90.8	91.5	91.0
Middle Tennessee	3-3	5-5	86.3	87.5	87.2	87.0
Florida Int’l.	4-2	6-3	86.0	86.4	86.8	86.4
Old Dominion	2-4	4-6	83.5	85.9	83.9	84.4
Charlotte	1-5	1-9	72.2	74.5	72.4	73.0
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	2-4	5-4	89.1	91.4	90.0	90.1
N. Texas	6-1	7-3	85.8	87.4	86.5	86.6
Louisiana Tech	2-4	4-6	85.6	87.4	86.2	86.4
Southern Miss.	4-2	6-4	84.2	85.3	84.7	84.7
UAB	5-2	7-3	81.4	84.2	83.5	83.0
Rice	1-5	1-9	71.9	73.3	72.2