PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Thursday	October 24
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	SMU	-8.1	-7.1	-7.5
Friday	October 25
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Colorado	USC	-11.1	-12.2	-12.3
Saturday	October 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Massachusetts	Connecticut	-7.6	-9.3	-7.6
Purdue	Illinois	11.4	10.5	11.8
Army	San Jose St.	13.6	11.4	13.3
Georgia St.	Troy	-2.2	-1.3	-1.6
Clemson	Boston College	33.5	30.9	33.7
Tulsa	Memphis	-12.8	-12.0	-12.5
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	3.5	3.7	3.8
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	9.6	11.6	3.9
Temple	Central Florida	-7.0	-7.0	-6.7
Western Michigan	Bowling Green	25.8	24.9	25.5
Nebraska	Indiana	-2.1	0.0	-2.1
Buffalo	Central Michigan	5.9	5.6	6.0
Northwestern	Iowa	-9.7	-8.8	-10.7
East Carolina	South Florida	-2.0	-1.2	-2.0
Florida St.	Syracuse	3.0	3.9	3.4
Rutgers	Liberty	-2.4	-4.2	-3.9
Rice	Southern Miss.	-11.8	-8.8	-12.5
Utah	California	20.2	19.4	20.2
Wyoming	Nevada	12.9	13.5	13.7
Air Force	Utah St.	0.0	2.5	-0.1
New Mexico	Hawaii	-12.2	-10.6	-12.4
Marshall	Western Kentucky	2.8	1.2	2.1
Stanford	Arizona	7.6	6.7	7.1
Oregon	Washington St.	10.1	11.2	11.2
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	19.2	16.3	19.4
Kentucky	Missouri	-5.0	-4.0	-6.2
North Carolina	Duke	1.7	2.2	3.0
Michigan St.	Penn St.	-5.4	-5.3	-5.8
Kent St.	Miami (O)	2.2	3.7	2.5
South Alabama	Appalachian St.	-32.1	-28.5	-32.7
Georgia Southern	New Mexico St.	18.2	15.2	16.8
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	10.3	10.6	11.2
Middle Tennessee	Florida Int’l.	0.2	-0.8	0.1
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	-13.0	-12.1	-13.9
Ball St.	Ohio U	1.1	1.7	0.8
Alabama	Arkansas	43.1	39.2	44.5
Tennessee	South Carolina	-3.3	-2.0	-4.7
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	-14.6	-14.0	-14.8
Minnesota	Maryland	12.7	13.2	13.3
Navy	Tulane	-1.3	0.6	-1.2
TCU	Texas	-4.5	-2.0	-4.4
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	4.8	5.4	4.4
Louisville	Virginia	-8.1	-8.7	-8.5
Northern Illinois	Akron	22.3	21.0	23.4
Kansas	Texas Tech	-7.7	-6.7	-6.8
Charlotte	North Texas	-5.1	-4.1	-5.6
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	18.7	18.0	19.8
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	8.8	8.0	8.7
LSU	Auburn	9.0	8.4	9.4
UTEP	Louisiana Tech	-23.1	-18.4	-22.6
Michigan	Notre Dame	1.5	1.4	1.6
UCLA	Arizona St.	-6.2	-5.7	-7.7
UNLV	San Diego St.	-11.6	-12.1	-12.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	137.4	136.4	138.4	137.4
2	Alabama	135.3	132.0	136.0	134.4
3	Clemson	132.6	130.0	133.4	132.0
4	L S U	129.4	127.1	129.5	128.7
5	Oklahoma	125.8	125.1	125.7	125.5
6	Georgia	126.2	124.3	126.1	125.5
7	Auburn	123.4	121.7	123.2	122.8
8	Penn St.	122.7	121.8	122.8	122.5
9	Wisconsin	121.7	121.4	121.7	121.6
10	Florida	122.7	119.8	122.3	121.6
11	Utah	121.6	120.4	122.2	121.4
12	Notre Dame	120.5	118.8	120.4	119.9
13	Oregon	119.1	119.2	120.5	119.6
14	Michigan	118.9	117.2	119.0	118.4
15	Iowa	117.7	115.8	117.5	117.0
16	Iowa St.	115.9	116.6	116.2	116.2
17	Texas A&M	116.7	115.0	115.3	115.7
18	Washington	114.0	113.7	115.0	114.2
19	Minnesota	114.2	113.9	113.7	113.9
20	Baylor	114.0	114.2	113.6	113.9
21	Michigan St.	114.3	113.5	114.0	113.9
22	Missouri	114.2	111.8	114.0	113.3
23	South Carolina	113.6	111.9	113.4	113.0
24	Texas	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8
25	Washington St.	112.0	111.1	112.3	111.8
26	U S C	109.9	110.7	110.6	110.4
27	Central Florida	110.4	109.6	111.0	110.3
28	Mississippi St.	110.1	106.4	114.5	110.3
29	Virginia	108.8	109.0	108.9	108.9
30	Oklahoma St.	108.6	109.0	108.0	108.5
31	Arizona St.	108.4	107.7	109.2	108.5
32	Appalachian St.	108.8	107.8	108.6	108.4
33	Cincinnati	108.3	107.1	108.9	108.1
34	Kansas St.	108.3	108.1	107.9	108.1
35	Indiana	108.5	107.2	107.9	107.9
36	SMU	107.2	107.0	108.5	107.6
37	Memphis	106.8	106.8	107.5	107.0
38	Pittsburgh	106.6	106.4	106.9	106.6
39	Tennessee	107.3	106.9	105.7	106.6
40	Purdue	106.8	106.6	106.3	106.6
41	T C U	105.2	108.0	105.5	106.2
42	Boise St.	106.1	105.8	106.4	106.1
43	North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1
44	Texas Tech	105.8	106.0	105.0	105.6
45	Duke	105.6	104.9	105.3	105.3
46	Kentucky	106.2	104.8	104.8	105.3
47	Utah St.	104.9	104.0	105.9	104.9
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.8	104.1	105.5	104.8
49	Ole Miss	105.2	104.2	104.9	104.8
50	Northwestern	105.4	104.5	104.3	104.7
51	Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6
52	California	104.3	104.0	105.0	104.4
53	Syracuse	104.5	103.8	104.1	104.1
54	Maryland	104.5	103.7	103.3	103.8
55	Nebraska	103.4	104.2	102.8	103.5
56	Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4
57	Stanford	103.6	102.7	103.1	103.1
58	Air Force	101.9	103.4	102.8	102.7
59	Boston College	102.2	102.1	102.7	102.3
60	West Virginia	102.1	101.5	101.2	101.6
61	Virginia Tech	101.0	101.1	101.4	101.2
62	Temple	100.8	100.1	101.8	100.9
63	Louisiana	100.9	101.0	100.8	100.9
64	Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.4	100.2
65	Fresno St.	99.0	99.8	99.5	99.4
66	BYU	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.3
67	North Carolina St.	99.3	99.0	99.4	99.2
68	Arizona	99.0	99.0	98.9	99.0
69	U C L A	99.2	99.0	98.5	98.9
70	San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9
71	Illinois	98.3	99.1	97.5	98.3
72	Wyoming	97.3	99.4	97.6	98.1
73	Houston	96.6	97.5	98.5	97.5
74	Oregon St.	97.3	98.3	96.8	97.5
75	Louisville	97.7	97.3	97.4	97.4
76	Western Michigan	97.5	96.4	97.2	97.0
77	Navy	95.5	98.1	96.2	96.6
78	Vanderbilt	97.0	95.7	95.7	96.1
79	Hawaii	95.7	97.0	94.9	95.9
80	Army	96.0	95.9	95.2	95.7
81	Colorado	95.9	95.5	95.4	95.6
82	Kansas	95.2	96.2	95.2	95.5
83	Arkansas	95.2	95.7	94.5	95.2
84	Georgia Tech	94.6	92.9	95.0	94.2
85	Troy	94.3	94.8	93.4	94.2
86	Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.0	94.3	94.1
87	Southern Miss.	94.2	92.6	94.3	93.7
88	Georgia Southern	93.3	92.7	92.2	92.8
89	Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7
90	Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.4	92.8	92.0
91	Northern Illinois	92.2	91.1	92.3	91.9
92	Tulsa	91.0	91.8	92.0	91.6
93	Western Kentucky	90.6	91.8	92.4	91.6
94	Florida Int’l.	91.4	91.4	91.6	91.5
95	Ball St.	91.5	91.1	91.6	91.4
96	North Texas	91.2	90.5	91.7	91.1
97	U A B	89.9	91.8	90.8	90.9
98	Marshall	90.4	90.0	91.5	90.6
99	Georgia St.	89.6	91.0	89.3	90.0
100	Buffalo	89.3	89.8	90.4	89.8
101	Arkansas St.	89.7	89.8	89.2	89.6
102	Liberty	89.0	90.3	89.3	89.5
103	Middle Tennessee	89.1	88.1	89.2	88.8
104	South Florida	88.3	89.3	88.5	88.7
105	Toledo	88.3	88.6	89.0	88.6
106	Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4
107	Miami (Ohio)	88.5	87.0	88.7	88.1
108	Nevada	87.5	88.9	86.9	87.8
109	Eastern Michigan	87.2	87.4	87.7	87.5
110	Coastal Carolina	86.8	87.9	86.2	87.0
111	Central Michigan	85.9	86.7	86.9	86.5
112	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.5	85.6	86.0
113	San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0
114	U N L V	84.2	85.6	83.7	84.5
115	East Carolina	83.8	85.6	84.0	84.5
116	Colorado St.	82.8	86.6	83.1	84.2
117	Charlotte	83.6	83.9	83.6	83.7
118	Texas St.	83.4	84.2	83.0	83.5
119	Rutgers	84.1	83.6	82.9	83.5
120	New Mexico	80.0	82.8	79.0	80.6
121	Rice	79.9	81.3	79.2	80.2
122	New Mexico St.	78.2	80.6	78.5	79.1
123	Old Dominion	76.4	76.8	76.4	76.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.8	74.3	75.2
125	South Alabama	74.2	76.8	73.3	74.8
126	Bowling Green	74.1	74.0	74.2	74.1
127	Connecticut	71.9	75.4	70.8	72.7
128	Akron	72.5	72.6	71.4	72.1
129	U T E P	68.4	73.1	69.2	70.2
130	Massachusetts	62.3	64.1	61.2	62.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	110.4	109.6	111.0	110.3	2-1	5-2
Cincinnati	108.3	107.1	108.9	108.1	3-0	6-1
Temple	100.8	100.1	101.8	100.9	2-1	5-2
South Florida	88.3	89.3	88.5	88.7	1-2	3-4
East Carolina	83.8	85.6	84.0	84.5	0-3	3-4
Connecticut	71.9	75.4	70.8	72.7	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	107.2	107.0	108.5	107.6	3-0	7-0
Memphis	106.8	106.8	107.5	107.0	2-1	6-1
Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.4	100.2	2-1	5-2
Houston	96.6	97.5	98.5	97.5	1-2	3-4
Navy	95.5	98.1	96.2	96.6	3-1	5-1
Tulsa	91.0	91.8	92.0	91.6	0-3	2-5
AAC Averages	96.7	97.4	97.3	97.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	132.6	130.0	133.4	132.0	5-0	7-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6	2-3	3-4
Syracuse	104.5	103.8	104.1	104.1	0-3	3-4
Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4	2-1	6-1
Boston College	102.2	102.1	102.7	102.3	2-2	4-3
North Carolina St.	99.3	99.0	99.4	99.2	1-2	4-3
Louisville	97.7	97.3	97.4	97.4	2-2	4-3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	108.8	109.0	108.9	108.9	3-1	5-2
Pittsburgh	106.6	106.4	106.9	106.6	2-1	5-2
North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1	2-2	3-4
Duke	105.6	104.9	105.3	105.3	2-2	4-3
Miami (Fla.)	104.8	104.1	105.5	104.8	1-3	3-4
Virginia Tech	101.0	101.1	101.4	101.2	3-2	5-2
Georgia Tech	94.6	92.9	95.0	94.2	1-3	2-5
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	125.8	125.1	125.7	125.5	4-0	7-0
Iowa St.	115.9	116.6	116.2	116.2	3-1	5-2
Baylor	114.0	114.2	113.6	113.9	4-0	7-0
Texas	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8	3-1	5-2
Oklahoma St.	108.6	109.0	108.0	108.5	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	108.3	108.1	107.9	108.1	1-2	4-2
T C U	105.2	108.0	105.5	106.2	1-2	3-3
Texas Tech	105.8	106.0	105.0	105.6	1-3	3-4
West Virginia	102.1	101.5	101.2	101.6	1-3	3-4
Kansas	95.2	96.2	95.2	95.5	0-4	2-5
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	137.4	136.4	138.4	137.4	4-0	7-0
Penn St.	122.7	121.8	122.8	122.5	4-0	7-0
Michigan	118.9	117.2	119.0	118.4	3-2	5-2
Michigan St.	114.3	113.5	114.0	113.9	2-2	4-3
Indiana	108.5	107.2	107.9	107.9	2-2	5-2
Maryland	104.5	103.7	103.3	103.8	1-3	3-4
Rutgers	84.1	83.6	82.9	83.5	0-5	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	121.7	121.4	121.7	121.6	3-1	6-1
Iowa	117.7	115.8	117.5	117.0	2-2	5-2
Minnesota	114.2	113.9	113.7	113.9	4-0	7-0
Purdue	106.8	106.6	106.3	106.6	1-3	2-5
Northwestern	105.4	104.5	104.3	104.7	0-4	1-5
Nebraska	103.4	104.2	102.8	103.5	2-2	4-3
Illinois	98.3	99.1	97.5	98.3	1-3	3-4
Big Ten Averages	111.3	110.6	110.9	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.4	92.8	92.0	2-1	4-3
Western Kentucky	90.6	91.8	92.4	91.6	4-0	5-2
Florida Int’l.	91.4	91.4	91.6	91.5	2-2	4-3
Marshall	90.4	90.0	91.5	90.6	2-1	4-3
Middle Tennessee	89.1	88.1	89.2	88.8	1-2	2-5
Charlotte	83.6	83.9	83.6	83.7	0-3	2-5
Old Dominion	76.4	76.8	76.4	76.5	0-3	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.0	94.3	94.1	3-0	6-1
Southern Miss.	94.2	92.6	94.3	93.7	2-1	4-3
North Texas	91.2	90.5	91.7	91.1	2-1	3-4
U A B	89.9	91.8	90.8	90.9	3-1	6-1
Rice	79.9	81.3	79.2	80.2	0-3	0-7
Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.8	74.3	75.2	2-2	3-4
U T E P	68.4	73.1	69.2	70.2	0-3	1-5
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.5	118.8	120.4	119.9	x	5-1
BYU	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.3	x	3-4
Army	96.0	95.9	95.2	95.7	x	3-4
Liberty	89.0	90.3	89.3	89.5	x	5-2
New Mexico St.	78.2	80.6	78.5	79.1	x	0-7
Massachusetts	62.3	64.1	61.2	62.5	x	1-6
Indep. Averages	90.9	91.5	90.6	91.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7	2-1	3-4
Buffalo	89.3	89.8	90.4	89.8	1-2	3-4
Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4	2-1	3-4
Miami (Ohio)	88.5	87.0	88.7	88.1	2-1	3-4
Bowling Green	74.1	74.0	74.2	74.1	1-2	2-5
Akron	72.5	72.6	71.4	72.1	0-3	0-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.5	96.4	97.2	97.0	2-2	4-4
Northern Illinois	92.2	91.1	92.3	91.9	1-2	2-5
Ball St.	91.5	91.1	91.6	91.4	3-0	4-3
Toledo	88.3	88.6	89.0	88.6	1-2	4-3
Eastern Michigan	87.2	87.4	87.7	87.5	1-2	4-3
Central Michigan	85.9	86.7	86.9	86.5	3-1	5-3
MAC Averages	87.3	87.1	87.6	87.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.1	105.8	106.4	106.1	3-0	6-1
Utah St.	104.9	104.0	105.9	104.9	3-0	4-2
Air Force	101.9	103.4	102.8	102.7	3-1	5-2
Wyoming	97.3	99.4	97.6	98.1	2-1	5-2
Colorado St.	82.8	86.6	83.1	84.2	1-2	2-5
New Mexico	80.0	82.8	79.0	80.6	0-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.0	99.8	99.5	99.4	1-1	3-3
San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9	3-1	6-1
Hawaii	95.7	97.0	94.9	95.9	1-2	4-3
Nevada	87.5	88.9	86.9	87.8	1-2	4-3
San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0	1-3	3-4
U N L V	84.2	85.6	83.7	84.5	1-3	2-5
MWC Averages	93.6	95.1	93.6	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	119.1	119.2	120.5	119.6	4-0	6-1
Washington	114.0	113.7	115.0	114.2	2-3	5-3
Washington St.	112.0	111.1	112.3	111.8	1-3	4-3
California	104.3	104.0	105.0	104.4	1-3	4-3
Stanford	103.6	102.7	103.1	103.1	2-3	3-4
Oregon St.	97.3	98.3	96.8	97.5	2-2	3-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	121.6	120.4	122.2	121.4	3-1	6-1
U S C	109.9	110.7	110.6	110.4	3-1	4-3
Arizona St.	108.4	107.7	109.2	108.5	2-2	5-2
Arizona	99.0	99.0	98.9	99.0	2-2	4-3
U C L A	99.2	99.0	98.5	98.9	2-2	2-5
Colorado	95.9	95.5	95.4	95.6	1-3	3-4
Pac-12 Averages	107.0	106.8	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.2	124.3	126.1	125.5	3-1	6-1
Florida	122.7	119.8	122.3	121.6	5-1	7-1
Missouri	114.2	111.8	114.0	113.3	2-1	5-2
South Carolina	113.6	111.9	113.4	113.0	2-3	3-4
Tennessee	107.3	106.9	105.7	106.6	1-3	2-5
Kentucky	106.2	104.8	104.8	105.3	1-4	3-4
Vanderbilt	97.0	95.7	95.7	96.1	1-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	132.0	136.0	134.4	4-0	7-0
L S U	129.4	127.1	129.5	128.7	3-0	7-0
Auburn	123.4	121.7	123.2	122.8	3-1	6-1
Texas A&M	116.7	115.0	115.3	115.7	2-2	4-3
Mississippi St.	110.1	106.4	114.5	110.3	1-3	3-4
Ole Miss	105.2	104.2	104.9	104.8	2-3	3-5
Arkansas	95.2	95.7	94.5	95.2	0-4	2-5
SEC Averages	114.5	112.7	114.3	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	108.8	107.8	108.6	108.4	3-0	6-0
Troy	94.3	94.8	93.4	94.2	1-1	3-3
Georgia Southern	93.3	92.7	92.2	92.8	2-1	3-3
Georgia St.	89.6	91.0	89.3	90.0	2-1	5-2
Coastal Carolina	86.8	87.9	86.2	87.0	0-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.9	101.0	100.8	100.9	2-1	5-2
Arkansas St.	89.7	89.8	89.2	89.6	1-2	3-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.5	85.6	86.0	2-1	3-4
Texas St.	83.4	84.2	83.0	83.5	1-1	2-4
South Alabama	74.2	76.8	73.3	74.8	0-3	1-6
SBC Averages	90.7	91.3	90.2	90.7

 

 

Conference Ratings

 

#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.8
2	Big Ten	110.9
3	Big 12	109.3
4	Pac-12	107.0
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American	97.1
7	Mountain West	94.1
8	Independents	91.0
9	Sun Belt	90.7
10	Mid-American	87.3
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	SMU
2	Appalachian St.
3	Cincinnati
4	Navy
5	Boise St.

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).

AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up.  SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl.  Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.

ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so.  There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids.  Boston College, Louisville,  and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now.  The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.

Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries?  If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs.  If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs.  If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs.  Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now.  Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.

Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier.  The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound.  Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division.  Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect.  If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962.  With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.

Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture.  Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag.  The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand.  UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.

Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here.  The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention.  If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid.  Keep an eye on Liberty.  If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season.  Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins.  Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.

MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest.  Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division.  The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions.  The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition.  Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion.  In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown.  Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.

Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl.  The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them.  Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team.  With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title.  This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in.  Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.

Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely.  The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm.  Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs.  The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.

SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden.  If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn.  Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title.  With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids.  USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility.  Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6.  In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss.  Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8.  The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.

Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion?  Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Central Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Toledo]
Cure	AAC	SBC	East Carolina	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Ball St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Indiana
Military	ACC	AAC	Duke	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Pittsburgh	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Penn St.
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	[Hawaii]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Michigan
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Wyoming]	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	[Liberty]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Georgia	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Troy]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Nebraska
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Western Ky.]	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Wednesday	October 16
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Troy	South Alabama	22.4	19.7	21.9
Thursday	October 17
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas St.	Louisiana	-6.5	-6.3	-6.5
Stanford	UCLA	12.6	12.2	13.5
Friday	October 18
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida Atlantic	Marshall	6.7	6.8	6.9
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	2.8	2.4	2.5
Northwestern	Ohio St.	-24.8	-24.4	-26.8
Fresno St.	UNLV	15.2	14.2	15.8
Saturday	October 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia	Duke	2.0	2.7	2.0
Miami (Fla.)	Georgia Tech	15.9	16.8	16.4
Louisville	Clemson	-31.4	-28.6	-32.2
Georgia St.	Army	-6.7	-5.2	-6.6
Akron	Buffalo	-13.5	-13.7	-15.5
Maryland	Indiana	-0.6	0.3	-0.8
Connecticut	Houston	-24.5	-21.6	-28.3
Wake Forest	Florida St.	1.5	0.8	1.7
Georgia Southern	Coastal Carolina	10.7	8.9	10.5
Bowling Green	Central Michigan	-7.3	-8.2	-8.0
Central Florida	East Carolina	31.5	28.7	32.5
Cincinnati	Tulsa	21.7	19.8	21.7
Boston College	North Carolina St.	2.1	2.2	2.2
Iowa	Purdue	14.5	12.8	15.1
Ohio	Kent St.	7.2	6.2	7.1
Eastern Michigan	Western Michigan	-10.3	-9.1	-10.0
Texas	Kansas	22.5	21.6	23.0
Illinois	Wisconsin	-25.1	-23.9	-26.2
Utah St.	Nevada	19.8	16.8	21.4
BYU	Boise St.	-6.1	-6.0	-7.0
Wyoming	New Mexico	21.2	20.4	22.7
Utah	Arizona St.	16.0	15.3	15.6
Ball St.	Toledo	0.2	-0.5	-0.3
Miami (O)	Northern Illinois	-1.8	-2.6	-2.1
California	Oregon St.	13.6	12.2	15.3
Washington	Oregon	-1.4	-2.0	-1.7
USC	Arizona	10.3	10.9	10.7
Washington St.	Colorado	16.1	15.4	16.5
South Carolina	Florida	-5.4	-4.1	-4.9
Georgia	Kentucky	23.6	23.4	25.6
Kansas St.	TCU	5.8	2.5	5.2
Mississippi St.	LSU	-14.3	-15.7	-9.1
Alabama	Tennessee	32.0	29.1	34.3
Louisiana Tech	Southern Miss.	-0.9	0.6	-1.1
UAB	Old Dominion	12.9	14.3	13.5
Oklahoma	West Virginia	24.3	23.9	24.6
Oklahoma St.	Baylor	0.9	1.3	1.1
Arkansas	Auburn	-20.7	-18.1	-20.7
Ole Miss	Texas A&M	-8.8	-7.7	-7.4
Memphis	Tulane	5.3	4.2	5.0
Virginia Tech	North Carolina	-2.3	-2.2	-3.1
Rutgers	Minnesota	-25.0	-25.1	-25.3
Texas Tech	Iowa St.	-6.7	-7.0	-7.7
Navy	South Florida	5.2	6.8	5.3
Appalachian St.	Louisiana-Monroe	20.2	18.1	19.8
Vanderbilt	Missouri	-18.8	-17.6	-20.5
San Jose St.	San Diego St.	-10.4	-10.1	-10.8
Western Kentucky	Charlotte	8.0	8.5	9.5
North Texas	Middle Tennessee	4.8	5.3	5.7
UTSA	Rice	-3.9	-2.9	-3.5
SMU	Temple	5.6	6.3	5.6
Florida Int’l.	UTEP	27.8	22.9	27.5
Penn St.	Michigan	6.4	7.2	6.5
Hawaii	Air Force	4.0	4.0	2.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note:  We receive a lot of emails at our sister site asking us how X can be rated ahead of Y when Y beat X in September.  These are not rankings; they are ratings.  They are predictive in nature and not mean to rank the teams based on what they have done earlier in the season.  These ratings try to forecast the next week of games only.  

 

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	135.3	134.2	136.2	135.2
2	Alabama	135.8	132.5	136.5	134.9
3	Clemson	132.2	129.3	132.9	131.5
4	L S U	128.4	126.1	128.0	127.5
5	Georgia	126.7	124.9	126.9	126.2
6	Wisconsin	124.2	123.9	124.4	124.2
7	Oklahoma	124.4	123.6	124.1	124.0
8	Penn St.	122.5	121.6	122.6	122.3
9	Utah	121.5	120.2	122.0	121.2
10	Florida	122.4	119.4	121.8	121.2
11	Auburn	121.5	119.6	121.1	120.7
12	Notre Dame	120.2	118.5	120.1	119.6
13	Oregon	118.7	118.8	120.0	119.2
14	Michigan	119.1	117.4	119.2	118.6
15	Iowa	118.0	116.1	118.0	117.3
16	Iowa St.	115.7	116.3	115.9	116.0
17	Texas A&M	116.8	115.0	115.3	115.7
18	Missouri	116.4	114.0	116.5	115.6
19	Washington	114.2	113.9	115.3	114.5
20	Michigan St.	114.0	113.2	113.7	113.6
21	Texas	113.3	113.5	113.7	113.5
22	South Carolina	113.9	112.3	113.9	113.4
23	Minnesota	112.4	112.0	111.7	112.0
24	Baylor	112.1	112.2	111.5	111.9
25	Central Florida	111.5	110.6	112.4	111.5
26	Mississipppi St.	111.1	107.4	116.0	111.5
27	Washington St.	110.5	109.5	110.6	110.2
28	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.6	110.0
29	Cincinnati	109.0	107.8	109.8	108.9
30	Arizona St.	108.5	107.9	109.4	108.6
31	U S C	108.1	108.8	108.6	108.5
32	Kansas St.	108.2	107.8	107.8	107.9
33	Boise St.	107.5	107.3	108.1	107.6
34	Indiana	108.3	106.8	107.5	107.5
35	Duke	107.7	107.1	107.6	107.5
36	Northwestern	107.5	106.7	106.5	106.9
37	Virginia	106.7	106.8	106.6	106.7
38	Miami (Fla.)	106.4	105.7	107.2	106.4
39	California	106.2	105.9	107.2	106.4
40	T C U	105.3	108.3	105.6	106.4
41	North Carolina	106.0	106.0	107.2	106.4
42	Purdue	106.5	106.3	105.8	106.2
43	Tennessee	106.8	106.4	105.2	106.1
44	Stanford	106.4	105.6	106.2	106.1
45	Texas Tech	106.0	106.3	105.3	105.9
46	Pittsburgh	105.8	105.5	105.9	105.7
47	SMU	105.1	104.9	106.2	105.4
48	Appalachian St.	105.9	104.7	105.5	105.4
49	Syracuse	105.6	105.0	105.4	105.3
50	Kentucky	106.0	104.5	104.3	104.9
51	Ole Miss	105.1	104.2	104.9	104.7
52	Memphis	104.6	104.4	105.1	104.7
53	Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6
54	Utah St.	104.6	103.4	105.6	104.5
55	Maryland	104.7	104.1	103.7	104.2
56	Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4
57	Nebraska	103.1	103.9	102.5	103.2
58	Tulane	102.3	103.2	103.1	102.9
59	West Virginia	103.2	102.7	102.5	102.8
60	Temple	102.4	101.7	103.6	102.6
61	North Carolina St.	101.3	101.1	101.6	101.3
62	Arizona	100.8	100.9	100.9	100.9
63	Virginia Tech	100.7	100.8	101.1	100.9
64	Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.8	100.5
65	Louisiana	99.8	99.8	99.5	99.7
66	Air Force	98.9	100.3	99.7	99.6
67	Houston	98.0	98.8	100.3	99.0
68	San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9
69	Hawaii	98.4	99.8	97.7	98.6
70	Wyoming	97.7	99.8	98.2	98.6
71	Western Michigan	98.8	97.7	98.7	98.4
72	BYU	98.4	98.3	98.1	98.3
73	Fresno St.	97.7	98.3	98.0	98.0
74	Arkansas	97.8	98.5	97.3	97.9
75	Louisville	97.9	97.8	97.7	97.8
76	Army	97.4	97.3	96.8	97.2
77	Colorado	97.4	97.1	97.1	97.2
78	U C L A	96.7	96.4	95.7	96.3
79	Illinois	96.1	96.9	95.1	96.1
80	Oregon St.	95.7	96.7	94.9	95.8
81	Southern Miss.	95.8	94.2	96.1	95.4
82	Kansas	93.9	94.9	93.7	94.2
83	Vanderbilt	95.1	93.8	93.5	94.1
84	Navy	93.0	95.6	93.5	94.1
85	Troy	94.2	94.4	93.1	93.9
86	Georgia Southern	94.1	93.5	93.2	93.6
87	Florida Atlantic	93.0	92.6	94.1	93.2
88	Georgia Tech	93.5	91.8	93.8	93.0
89	Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7
90	Florida Int’l.	92.5	92.4	92.9	92.6
91	Louisiana Tech	92.4	92.4	92.5	92.4
92	Northern Illinois	92.5	91.6	92.8	92.3
93	Toledo	91.3	91.6	92.0	91.6
94	North Texas	91.3	90.7	92.0	91.3
95	South Florida	90.8	91.8	91.2	91.3
96	Tulsa	90.3	91.1	91.1	90.8
97	Arkansas St.	90.8	91.0	90.5	90.8
98	Western Kentucky	89.8	90.9	91.5	90.7
99	Marshall	89.3	88.8	90.2	89.4
100	Buffalo	88.9	89.3	89.9	89.3
101	Liberty	88.8	90.1	89.1	89.3
102	U A B	88.3	90.2	89.1	89.2
103	Ball St.	89.0	88.6	89.1	88.9
104	Middle Tennessee	89.0	87.9	88.9	88.6
105	Louisiana-Monroe	88.2	89.1	88.2	88.5
106	Georgia St.	88.2	89.6	87.7	88.5
107	Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4
108	Nevada	87.8	89.5	87.2	88.2
109	Miami (Ohio)	88.2	86.5	88.2	87.6
110	Eastern Michigan	85.9	86.1	86.2	86.1
111	Coastal Carolina	86.0	87.1	85.2	86.1
112	San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0
113	U N L V	85.5	87.1	85.2	85.9
114	Central Michigan	84.8	85.6	85.7	85.3
115	Charlotte	84.4	84.8	84.5	84.6
116	Rutgers	84.9	84.5	83.9	84.4
117	Colorado St.	82.5	86.3	82.8	83.9
118	East Carolina	83.0	84.9	82.9	83.6
119	Texas St.	83.2	84.0	82.8	83.3
120	Rice	80.5	81.9	79.9	80.8
121	New Mexico	79.6	82.4	78.4	80.2
122	New Mexico St.	78.0	80.4	78.3	78.9
123	Old Dominion	78.0	78.4	78.1	78.2
124	South Alabama	74.3	77.2	73.6	75.1
125	Bowling Green	74.9	74.8	75.1	75.0
126	Texas-San Antonio	74.2	76.5	73.9	74.8
127	Akron	72.9	73.1	71.9	72.6
128	Connecticut	71.0	74.6	69.5	71.7
129	U T E P	67.3	72.1	67.9	69.1
130	Massachusetts	62.1	63.9	61.0	62.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.5	110.6	112.4	111.5	1-1	4-2
Cincinnati	109.0	107.8	109.8	108.9	2-0	5-1
Temple	102.4	101.7	103.6	102.6	2-0	5-1
South Florida	90.8	91.8	91.2	91.3	1-1	3-3
East Carolina	83.0	84.9	82.9	83.6	0-2	3-3
Connecticut	71.0	74.6	69.5	71.7	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	105.1	104.9	106.2	105.4	2-0	6-0
Memphis	104.6	104.4	105.1	104.7	1-1	5-1
Tulane	102.3	103.2	103.1	102.9	2-0	5-1
Houston	98.0	98.8	100.3	99.0	0-2	2-4
Navy	93.0	95.6	93.5	94.1	2-1	4-1
Tulsa	90.3	91.1	91.1	90.8	0-2	2-4
AAC Averages	96.7	97.5	97.4	97.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	132.2	129.3	132.9	131.5	4-0	6-0
Syracuse	105.6	105.0	105.4	105.3	0-2	3-3
Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6	2-2	3-3
Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4	1-1	5-1
North Carolina St.	101.3	101.1	101.6	101.3	1-1	4-2
Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.8	100.5	1-2	3-3
Louisville	97.9	97.8	97.7	97.8	2-1	4-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Duke	107.7	107.1	107.6	107.5	2-1	4-2
Virginia	106.7	106.8	106.6	106.7	2-1	4-2
Miami (Fla.)	106.4	105.7	107.2	106.4	1-2	3-3
North Carolina	106.0	106.0	107.2	106.4	2-1	3-3
Pittsburgh	105.8	105.5	105.9	105.7	1-1	4-2
Virginia Tech	100.7	100.8	101.1	100.9	2-2	4-2
Georgia Tech	93.5	91.8	93.8	93.0	0-3	1-5
ACC Averages	105.2	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	124.4	123.6	124.1	124.0	3-0	6-0
Iowa St.	115.7	116.3	115.9	116.0	2-1	4-2
Texas	113.3	113.5	113.7	113.5	2-1	4-2
Baylor	112.1	112.2	111.5	111.9	3-0	6-0
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.6	110.0	1-2	4-2
Kansas St.	108.2	107.8	107.8	107.9	0-2	3-2
T C U	105.3	108.3	105.6	106.4	1-1	3-2
Texas Tech	106.0	106.3	105.3	105.9	1-2	3-3
West Virginia	103.2	102.7	102.5	102.8	1-2	3-3
Kansas	93.9	94.9	93.7	94.2	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.2	109.6	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	135.3	134.2	136.2	135.2	3-0	6-0
Penn St.	122.5	121.6	122.6	122.3	3-0	6-0
Michigan	119.1	117.4	119.2	118.6	3-1	5-1
Michigan St.	114.0	113.2	113.7	113.6	2-2	4-3
Indiana	108.3	106.8	107.5	107.5	1-2	4-2
Maryland	104.7	104.1	103.7	104.2	1-2	3-3
Rutgers	84.9	84.5	83.9	84.4	0-4	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	124.2	123.9	124.4	124.2	3-0	6-0
Iowa	118.0	116.1	118.0	117.3	1-2	4-2
Minnesota	112.4	112.0	111.7	112.0	3-0	6-0
Northwestern	107.5	106.7	106.5	106.9	0-3	1-4
Purdue	106.5	106.3	105.8	106.2	1-2	2-4
Nebraska	103.1	103.9	102.5	103.2	2-2	4-3
Illinois	96.1	96.9	95.1	96.1	0-3	2-4
Big Ten Averages	111.2	110.5	110.8	110.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	93.0	92.6	94.1	93.2	2-0	4-2
Florida Int’l.	92.5	92.4	92.9	92.6	1-2	3-3
Western Kentucky	89.8	90.9	91.5	90.7	3-0	4-2
Marshall	89.3	88.8	90.2	89.4	1-1	3-3
Middle Tennessee	89.0	87.9	88.9	88.6	1-1	2-4
Charlotte	84.4	84.8	84.5	84.6	0-2	2-4
Old Dominion	78.0	78.4	78.1	78.2	0-2	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	95.8	94.2	96.1	95.4	2-0	4-2
Louisiana Tech	92.4	92.4	92.5	92.4	2-0	5-1
North Texas	91.3	90.7	92.0	91.3	1-1	2-4
U A B	88.3	90.2	89.1	89.2	2-1	5-1
Rice	80.5	81.9	79.9	80.8	0-2	0-6
Texas-San Antonio	74.2	76.5	73.9	74.8	1-2	2-4
U T E P	67.3	72.1	67.9	69.1	0-2	1-4
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.2	118.5	120.1	119.6	x	5-1
BYU	98.4	98.3	98.1	98.3	x	2-4
Army	97.4	97.3	96.8	97.2	x	3-3
Liberty	88.8	90.1	89.1	89.3	x	4-2
New Mexico St.	78.0	80.4	78.3	78.9	x	0-7
Massachusetts	62.1	63.9	61.0	62.3	x	1-6
Indep. Averages	90.8	91.4	90.6	90.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7	1-1	2-4
Buffalo	88.9	89.3	89.9	89.3	0-2	2-4
Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4	2-0	3-3
Miami (Ohio)	88.2	86.5	88.2	87.6	1-1	2-4
Bowling Green	74.9	74.8	75.1	75.0	1-1	2-4
Akron	72.9	73.1	71.9	72.6	0-2	0-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.8	97.7	98.7	98.4	2-1	4-3
Northern Illinois	92.5	91.6	92.8	92.3	1-1	2-4
Toledo	91.3	91.6	92.0	91.6	1-1	4-2
Ball St.	89.0	88.6	89.1	88.9	2-0	3-3
Eastern Michigan	85.9	86.1	86.2	86.1	0-2	3-3
Central Michigan	84.8	85.6	85.7	85.3	2-1	4-3
MAC Averages	87.4	87.1	87.6	87.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	107.5	107.3	108.1	107.6	3-0	6-0
Utah St.	104.6	103.4	105.6	104.5	2-0	3-2
Air Force	98.9	100.3	99.7	99.6	2-1	4-2
Wyoming	97.7	99.8	98.2	98.6	1-1	4-2
Colorado St.	82.5	86.3	82.8	83.9	1-2	2-5
New Mexico	79.6	82.4	78.4	80.2	0-2	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9	2-1	5-1
Hawaii	98.4	99.8	97.7	98.6	1-1	4-2
Fresno St.	97.7	98.3	98.0	98.0	0-1	2-3
Nevada	87.8	89.5	87.2	88.2	1-1	4-2
San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0	1-2	3-3
U N L V	85.5	87.1	85.2	85.9	1-2	2-4
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.7	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	118.7	118.8	120.0	119.2	3-0	5-1
Washington	114.2	113.9	115.3	114.5	2-2	5-2
Washington St.	110.5	109.5	110.6	110.2	0-3	3-3
California	106.2	105.9	107.2	106.4	1-2	4-2
Stanford	106.4	105.6	106.2	106.1	2-2	3-3
Oregon St.	95.7	96.7	94.9	95.8	1-2	2-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	121.5	120.2	122.0	121.2	2-1	5-1
Arizona St.	108.5	107.9	109.4	108.6	2-1	5-1
U S C	108.1	108.8	108.6	108.5	2-1	3-3
Arizona	100.8	100.9	100.9	100.9	2-1	4-2
Colorado	97.4	97.1	97.1	97.2	1-2	3-3
U C L A	96.7	96.4	95.7	96.3	1-2	1-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.3	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.7	124.9	126.9	126.2	2-1	5-1
Florida	122.4	119.4	121.8	121.2	4-1	6-1
Missouri	116.4	114.0	116.5	115.6	2-0	5-1
South Carolina	113.9	112.3	113.9	113.4	2-2	3-3
Tennessee	106.8	106.4	105.2	106.1	1-2	2-4
Kentucky	106.0	104.5	104.3	104.9	1-3	3-3
Vanderbilt	95.1	93.8	93.5	94.1	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.8	132.5	136.5	134.9	3-0	6-0
L S U	128.4	126.1	128.0	127.5	2-0	6-0
Auburn	121.5	119.6	121.1	120.7	2-1	5-1
Texas A&M	116.8	115.0	115.3	115.7	1-2	3-3
Mississippi St.	111.1	107.4	116.0	111.5	1-2	3-3
Ole Miss	105.1	104.2	104.9	104.7	2-2	3-4
Arkansas	97.8	98.5	97.3	97.9	0-3	2-4
SEC Averages	114.6	112.7	114.4	113.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.9	104.7	105.5	105.4	2-0	5-0
Troy	94.2	94.4	93.1	93.9	0-1	2-3
Georgia Southern	94.1	93.5	93.2	93.6	1-1	2-3
Georgia St.	88.2	89.6	87.7	88.5	2-1	4-2
Coastal Carolina	86.0	87.1	85.2	86.1	0-2	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	99.8	99.8	99.5	99.7	1-1	4-2
Arkansas St.	90.8	91.0	90.5	90.8	1-1	3-3
Louisiana-Monroe	88.2	89.1	88.2	88.5	2-0	3-3
Texas St.	83.2	84.0	82.8	83.3	1-1	2-4
South Alabama	74.3	77.2	73.6	75.1	0-2	1-5
SBC Averages	90.5	91.0	89.9	90.5

 

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.9
2	BTen	110.8
3	B12	109.3
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	105.1
6	AAC	97.2
7	MWC	94.2
8	Ind	90.9
9	SUN	90.5
10	MAC	87.4
11	CUSA	86.5

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Boise St.
2	SMU
3	Cincinnati
4	Appalachian St.
5	Temple

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Ball St.	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Navy	[North Texas]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Marshall	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Cincinnati	Western Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Arizona
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	UAB
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	Hawaii	SMU
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Louisville	[Buffalo]
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina St.	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Washington St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Minnesota	Boise St.
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Louisiana Tech	[Nevada]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Purdue
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Georgia Southern]	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	Pittsburgh	Mississippi St.
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	[California]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia St.	Utah St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Iowa
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	South Carolina	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Kent St.	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Florida Int’l.]	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Louisiana
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Oklahoma
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Reverse Engineering the NCAA Playoffs

Here is our best estimate as to which teams would have qualified for the Playoffs in the years before there were playoffs.  This covers the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present)

 

 

2013: Florida St., Auburn, Alabama, Michigan St.

Auburn and Alabama would have met in a rematch

 

2012: Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, Oregon

Ohio State was 12-0 but ineligible that year

 

2011: LSU, Alabama, Stanford, Oklahoma St.

Andrew Luck versus the Crimson Tide and Les Myles against his old team

 

2010: Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Wisconsin

3, 12-0 teams and a possible Andy Dalton vs. Cam Newton in the Championship Game

 

2009: Alabama, Texas, TCU, Boise St.

All four teams were 12-0.  Nick Saban’s only undefeated team may have been one of his weaker teams at Alabama.  

 

2008: Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, Utah

This is a year where an 8-team playoff would have been needed, as there were nine teams that could be considered playoff worthy.  Only Utah was undefeated, and the Utes slaughtered Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

 

2007: Ohio St., LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma

This would have been a difficult year for a Selection Committee with only three deserving teams.  Number four could have been Missouri, Georgia, or USC.

 

2006: Ohio St., Florida, Michigan, Louisville

Ohio State and Michigan were both 11-0 when they met in Columbus.  The Buckeyes’ home field advantage is historically between 3.5 and 4.5 points, and they only won this game by three.  Might Michigan have been a little better that year?  Florida and Michigan in a semifinal game might have set up a rematch of the bitter rivals.

 

2005: USC, Texas, Penn St., Oregon

This was definitely a year where only two teams were needed for playoffs.  It would have been ashamed if either USC or Texas had been upset in a semifinal game, robbing the nation of one of the best Championship Games ever.

 

2004: USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah

All four of these teams were 12-0 at the end of the regular season.  Auburn and Utah were won impressive bowl games, and this would have been one of the best playoff years ever.

 

2003: USC, LSU, Oklahoma, Michigan

The BCS folks got this one wrong by not taking USC that year, and the AP Poll voted USC the national champion over LSU.

 

2002: Miami, Ohio St., Iowa, Georgia

Ohio State and Iowa did not play each other that year, as this pre-dates the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

2001: Miami, Oregon, Nebraska, Illinois

This was another tough year, and it didn’t need a playoff at all, as Miami was clearly 7-10 points better than anybody else in the nation.  Illinois gets the nod over Maryland and Colorado.

 

2000: Oklahoma, Washington, Miami, Florida St.

This was a year where a 6-team tournament, adding Oregon State and Virginia Tech, would have been needed.  Washington was more deserving than Florida State that year.

 

1999: Florida St., Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Kansas St.

The two teams that played for the title were the only legitimate teams that should have played for a title that year.

 

1998: Tennessee, Ohio St., Florida St., Kansas St.

UCLA might have been the best team headed into the final weeks that year, but the Bruins made a mistake playing at Miami to close out the regular season.  They were not ready for the heat and humidity, or the Miami speed.  Ohio State was more deserving of the Championship Game bid than Florida State.

1997: Nebraska, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida St.

Peyton Manning versus Charles Woodson in a battle of the top two Heisman Trophy candidates.  Then, in all likelihood, it would have been Michigan and Nebraska in one of the best Championship Games never to be played.

1996: Florida St., Arizona St., Florida, Ohio St.

John Cooper had two teams that were probably the best in the land, but his Buckeyes always found a way to lay an egg at some point during the season.  This Buckeyes’ team probably would have beaten Florida St. in a semifinal game.

1995: Nebraska, Florida, Tennessee, Northwestern

Florida, Tennessee, and Northwestern could have combined their rosters and still lost to Nebraska by 14 points.  This was the most dominant team of the last 25 years.

1994: Nebraska, Penn St., Alabama, Miami

A 10-0-1 Texas A&M team was on probation that year.  Nebraska and Penn State would have been an incredible game had they played that year.  In those days, the Big Ten champion went to the Rose Bowl, and there was no guarantee that the top two teams would play each other.

1993: Nebraska, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Florida St.

An 11-0 Auburn team may have been the best in the nation that year, but the Tigers were on probation.  Notre Dame’s upset loss at Boston College kept the Irish out of the National Championship Game, allowing a Florida State team that ND beat to sneak in to the Orange Bowl.  The Irish were probably the best team that year.

1992: Alabama, Miami, Texas A&M, Florida St.

One wide field goal attempt against Miami was all that kept Florida State from going undefeated.  Had the ball been true, there would have been four teams with no losses.  It didn’t matter that year, as ‘Bama was clearly  the best team in the nation with the best defense in modern day football (Wisconsin has a chance to take that moniker away this year if they run the table and stop Ohio State’s offense).

1991: Washington, Miami, Florida, Michigan

Washington and Miami needed to meet for the national championship that year.  The PiRate Ratings had Washington rated about two points ahead of Miami that year.

1990: Georgia Tech, Colorado, Texas, Miami

This was one of the toughest years to pick any of the teams.  At 10-2, Miami was probably the best team that year, as they pasted Texas in the Cotton Bowl 46-3, committing more yards in penalties than Texas had in offense.  Miami’s defense would have shut down Georgia Tech in the semifinals, and none of the triple option teams ever had success against the Hurricane defenses of those times.  Colorado’s I-bone would have been shut down.

 

1989: Colorado, Miami, Notre Dame, Michigan

Colorado was the only undefeated team, but they may have been the weakest of these four teams.  A Notre Dame-Michigan title game would have been a good one that year.

 

1988: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Miami, Auburn

This was another tough year to come up with team number four, as five or six other teams could have slid into this spot.  A third-seeded Miami team would have swept both playoff games by double digit margins.  Miami’s only loss that year was at Notre Dame by one point on one of the worst blown calls ever made in a game with championship implications.  Facing 4th down and 7 at the Notre Dame 11 yard line, Hurricane quarterback Steve Walsh threw a pass to receiver Cleveland Gary inside the five yard line.  Gary caught the ball and stretched forward.  The ball hit the goalline before any other part of Gary’s body touched the ground.  Not only did the referees not award Miami a touchdown, they at first called a fumble that was recovered by Notre Dame, after the ball was dropped just after Gary pounded it on the goalline.  Then to make a second mistake, the referees said it wasn’t a fumble and then gave the ball to Notre Dame on downs, when Miami only needed to get to the four yard line.  Miami would have beaten Notre Dame in a rematch by 14-17 points that year.

I heard a funny quip on sports radio the Monday after that game.  The host said that the referees, O’Brien, O’Malley, O’Sullivan, Kelly, Murphy,  and Ryan, decided that the goalline can cause a fumble.

 

1987: Miami, Oklahoma, Florida St., Syracuse

This was another one of those wide right years for Florida State in a one-point loss to Miami.  These two rivals would have most likely played for the title that year.

 

1986: Miami, Penn St., Oklahoma, Michigan

This would have been an interesting playoff, especially the Miami-Michigan game.  Bo Schembechler’s defense would have given Vinny Testaverde similar fits to the one Penn State gave him in the real Championship Game.  It might have been Penn State and Michigan playing for the title.

 

1985: Penn St., Oklahoma, Iowa, Miami

Florida at 9-1-1 might have been the best team at the end of the year, but the Gators were on probation.  This would have been a fairly even season with three close playoff games.

 

1984: Washington, Oklahoma, South Carolina, BYU

Yes, BYU was the real national champion that year, but they won it only because this was a down year in the major conferences.  Washington would have quickly dismissed BYU in the semifinals, while Oklahoma would have edged South Carolina.  Florida was on probation for the first of two years and went 9-1-1.  The Gators were probably the best team in the nation by the end of November, slaughtering ranked Georgia, Auburn, and Florida State teams by a combined 78-20.

 

1983: Nebraska, Texas, Auburn, Illinois

The actual national champion Miami would not have been invited to the Playoffs that year.  Illinois beat three top 10 teams that year by a combined 66-19 score.  10-1 Auburn only lost to 11-0 Texas.  Nebraska might have had trouble facing Illinois’s passing game since the Cornhuskers did not face a passing offense like this in the Big 8.  Texas beat three top 10 teams during the season and held opponents to less than 10 points per game.  This should have been an interesting Playoff season.

 

1982: Georgia, Penn St., SMU, Nebraska

SMU wasn’t yet on probation, even though this team was the one with all the violations.  The Pony Express would have given Penn State a tough game, while Georgia and Nebraska should have been a close one as well.  Any of the four teams could have won the title.  Nebraska’s lone loss was at Penn State by a field goal.

 

1981: Clemson, Georgia, Pittsburgh, Alabama

The two best teams in the nation that year were Clemson and Pittsburgh.  The Panthers were cruising along as the number one team and had a 10-0 record when they hosted Penn State in the regular season finale.  After scoring two quick touchdowns to take a 14-0 lead on the Nittany Lions.  Pitt outgained Penn State by more than 140 yards in the first quarter, and it looked like this would be a blowout win for the top-rated team.  Then, Penn State woke up and went on a scoring tear like Army in the World War II years, scoring 48 points in the last three quarters on a Pitt team that had given up just 92 points in its first ten games.  Poor Dan Marino–always a bridesmaid and never a bride. 

 

1980: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Florida St., Baylor

Hershel Walker would have rolled over Baylor in the semifinals, setting up an interesting championship game against either Pitt or FSU.  

 

1979: Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Florida St.

All four of these teams went unbeaten (USC had a tie), and this would have been an interesting playoff for sure.  This Alabama team got through the year unscathed against a rather weak schedule.  USC was probably the best team in the nation that year.  The Trojans were stacked with talent.  Both Charles White and Marcus Allen were the featured backs out of the I-formation.  Paul McDonald was one of the best passing quarterbacks the Trojans had up to that time.  Brad Budde was the best offensive lineman in the nation that year.  The USC secondary might have been the best one in college football history with Ronnie Lott, Dennis Smith, Jeff Fisher, Herb Ward, and Joey Browner.

 

1978: USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Penn St.

Penn State was the only undefeated team that year, but their schedule included a lot of easy wins.  USC won at Alabama and were probably the best team in the nation that year.

 

1977: Texas, Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma

Actual National Champion Notre Dame would not have made the Playoffs in a year where at least eight if not 12 teams were worthy.  Michigan appeared to be the superior team in the land for the second consecutive year, but the Wolverines came up short for the second year in a row.  Alabama probably had the best team at the end of the regular season, and the Tide won at Number 1 USC earlier in the year.  

 

1976: Pittsburgh, Michigan, USC, Georgia

Johnny Majors had Tony Dorsett as his tailback, and TD was nearly unstoppable.  Throw in a stingy defense that intercepted a lot of passes and recovered a lot of fumbles, and the Panthers would have probably won this Playoffs with ease.  When on their game, Michigan was good enough to play on an even level with Pitt, but up to this point in his career, no Bo Schembechler-coached team had won its final game of the year.

 

1975: Ohio St., Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona St.

Ohio State was undefeated with Heisman Trophy running back Archie Griffin and bulldozer Pete Johnson both topping 1,000 yards rushing.  Unlike many of Woody Hayes’ teams, this one had a decent passing attack with Cornelius Greene passing to Brian Baschnagel.  The Buckeyes beat four ranked teams in the regular season by a combined 100-29 score.  However, by the end of November, Alabama was clearly the best team in the nation.  An early stumble to open the season at Missouri, a school that pulled off several major upsets during this era, pushed the Tide out to sea.  Bear’s boys were unstoppable after that loss.  Alabama gave up just 46 points after that loss in week one, winning 10 games with ease.  Washington coach Don James after losing to ‘Bama 52-0 said they were the best team he had ever seen as a coach or player.

 

1974: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC

Oklahoma was the clear cut best team in the nation, but the Sooners were on probation this year.  OU would have easily beaten any of these four teams that year.  These four that weren’t on probation would have played three close games with USC likely coming out on top.

 

 

1973: Notre Dame, Alabama, Penn St., Ohio St.

This was one of the most incredible years in college football history.  Left out in this equation is a 10-0-1 Michigan team that tied 9-0-1 Ohio State but lost their quarterback for the season in the Big Game.

This group of four could have played this tournament a dozen times and each team might have won it three times each.  Our PiRate Ratings had Ohio State the number one team after the bowls that year.

 

1972: USC, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio St.

This was a time when the “haves” had a lot more than the “have nots,” and thus as many as 10 teams had playoff-worthy resumes.  In the end, it really didn’t matter this season, because USC was the best team in the nation by at least a touchdown over Oklahoma and more than 10 points over anybody else.  This was the best West Coast team ever. It had two future NFL quarterbacks in Mike Rae and Pat Haden.  Fullback Sam “Bam” Cunnigham blocked for Anthony Davis, while a trio of star receivers, Lynn Swann, J.K. McKay, and Charles Young, forced defenses to play three and four deep in the secondary.

 

1971: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan

The 1971 Nebraska team ranks as the all-time best team in PiRate Ratings’ history (1969 to present).  The 1971 Oklahoma team ranks as one of the 10 best in PiRate Ratings’ history.  These two teams were so far ahead of the rest of the nation.  Oklahoma would have beaten Alabama by at least three touchdowns, while Nebraska would have likely beaten Michigan by a score like 31-0.  The rematch for the National Championship might have been the best one ever had there been Playoffs back then.

1970: Ohio St., Texas, Nebraska, Arizona St.

Arizona State didn’t get any respect in 1970, but this undefeated team might have been strong enough to knock off Ohio State.  The schedule was suspect, but if you look at the roster, it was stocked with future NFL players.  Notre Dame and Tennessee were equally qualified to make the Playoffs this year, and a Committee might have given the edge to the Fighting Irish with Joe Theismann at quarterback.

 

1969: Penn St., Texas, Arkansas, USC

This is the year that the PiRate Ratings were born (although not named the PiRate Ratings until 2001).  It was because so  many teams were really good this season that I started making ratings.   If ever a season needed a 12-team Playoff, this is the one.  A case could have been made for 16 teams that year.  

If you ask me, Penn State would have won the title had there been Playoffs.  This Nittany Lion defense and special teams were among the best ever, as they scored or set up more points than they allowed.  When your number two and number three running backs are future All-pros Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell, and when your starting quarterback went undefeated for his entire football career (Youth league to College), how can you deny this 11-0 team that finished the 1969 season riding a 22-game winning streak and 30 game unbeaten streak?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 10-14, 2019

Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!  That’s a saying that goes back to the 1960’s, when a certain PiRate Captain was in school trying to impress this really cute blonde-haired, blue-eyed tomboy classmate.  It so happened that she and he were outside on the playground, and he was trying to teach her how to hit foul shots on the basketball goal.  She kept barely missing on those foul shots, when he made this little ditty up as it came to mind.  And, voila!  The pretty girl made three shots in a row.  The rest is history.  In the 1970’s, This girl would go on to become the star of her high school basketball team, setting the all-time single-season and career scoring marks.  She then enjoyed a four-year career as a starting guard for a Division 1 college team, playing in the NCAA Tournament.

 

The Captain figured it wouldn’t hurt to repeat that mantra in hopes that it would turn around the recent misfortunes of the PiRate Ratings.  The ratings in recent weeks have been just barely missing.

How much do you pay for these selections?  Remember, you usually get what you pay for, and that’s what these selections have been worth this season.  So, let’s hope we get more luck this week.

Without further adieu, here are the selections you should avoid like the plague.

 

PiRate Rating Selections

 

10-point Teasers, 3-game parlays

 

#1

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Syracuse	NC St.	+14.5
Virginia	Miami	+12.5
New Mexico	Colorado St.	+13.5

 

 

#2

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Indiana	Rutgers	+38
Navy	Tulsa	+11
Texas	Oklahoma	+21.5

 

 

#3

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Temple	Memphis	+16
Nebraska	Minnesota	+17.5
Boise St.	Hawaii	-1.5

 

 

#4

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Eastern Michigan	Ball St.	+9
Central Michigan	New Mexico St.	Pk
Arizona St.	Washington St.	+11

 

 

#5

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Oregon St.	Utah	+23.5
Ole Miss	Missouri	+22
Ohio	Northern Illinois	+3.5

 

 

#6

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Baylor	Texas Tech	-1
Vanderbilt	UNLV	-4.5
Wisconsin	Michigan St.	-0.5

 

 

#7

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Florida	LSU	+23.5
Nevada	San Jose St.	+8
Alabama	Texas A&M	-6.5

 

 

#8

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tenn.	-0.5
UAB	UTSA	-2
Notre Dame	USC	-1

 

 

#9

Pick	Opponent	Spread
New England	N.Y. Jets	-6.5
Baltimore	Cincinnati	-1
Cleveland	Seattle	+12

 

 

#10

Pick	Opponent	Spread
New Orleans	Jacksonville	+11.5
Miami	Washington	+13.5
Arizona	Atlanta	+12.5

 

 

#11

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Denver	Tennessee	+7.5
Detroit	Green Bay	+14.5
Carolina	Tampa Bay	+8

 

 

Davey19  Selections

 

Pick	Opponent	Spread
UL-Monroe	Texas St.	-3
Virginia	Miami (Fla.)	+2.5
Colorado	Oregon	+21.5
Illinois	Michigan	+22.5
Nebraska	Minnesota	+8
Arkansas	Kentucky	+7
Air Force	Fresno St.	-3

Coming Friday–We will issue three money line selections, one an outright upset winner currently listed at +200, and two parlays.

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

October 9 to	October 12
Wednesday	October 9
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana	Appalchian St.	-2.1	-0.5	-1.6
Thursday	October 10
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Texas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	-1.5	-1.3	-1.5
North Carolina St.	Syracuse	-3.0	-2.7	-2.9
Friday	October 11
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia	1.0	0.0	1.5
New Mexico	Colorado St.	3.6	2.8	2.5
Oregon	Colorado	19.6	19.8	20.8
Saturday	October 5
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Indiana	Rutgers	24.6	23.7	24.7
Bowling Green	Toledo	-20.9	-21.7	-22.2
Illinois	Michigan	-20.3	-17.6	-21.7
Wake Forest	Louisville	10.8	10.5	11.9
Tulsa	Navy	5.1	3.1	5.8
Texas (n)	Oklahoma	-11.7	-10.6	-11.4
Temple	Memphis	-0.2	-1.3	-0.2
Minnesota	Nebraska	8.5	6.9	8.0
Duke	Georgia Tech	16.9	18.3	16.7
Coastal Carolina	Georgia St.	1.2	1.1	1.3
Purdue	Maryland	-0.8	-0.5	-0.8
West Virginia	Iowa St.	-6.4	-7.5	-7.1
Boise St.	Hawaii	12.0	9.8	13.1
Eastern Michigan	Ball St.	0.0	0.8	0.6
Marshall	Old Dominion	14.1	12.9	14.7
Central Michigan	New Mexico St.	10.1	8.5	10.7
Arizona St.	Washington St.	0.6	1.0	1.3
Oregon St.	Utah	-17.7	-15.0	-18.8
Arizona	Washington	-6.7	-6.0	-7.4
Missouri	Ole Miss	14.5	12.9	15.2
Georgia	South Carolina	19.2	19.3	20.1
Tennessee	Mississippi St.	-5.2	-1.5	-11.9
Akron	Kent St.	-11.5	-11.2	-12.6
Ohio	Northern Illinois	3.8	3.9	4.5
Kentucky	Arkansas	12.1	9.7	11.1
Baylor	Texas Tech	9.7	9.8	10.5
Western Michigan	Miami (O)	12.5	13.2	12.0
South Florida	BYU	-7.2	-6.1	-6.9
Houston	Cincinnati	-7.2	-4.7	-4.9
Tulane	Connecticut	32.1	28.8	34.3
Vanderbilt	UNLV	20.0	16.8	18.9
Wisconsin	Michigan St.	6.6	6.9	6.7
LSU	Florida	8.3	8.7	8.1
Nevada	San Jose St.	5.6	5.2	5.5
Texas A&M	Alabama	-15.8	-13.9	-18.0
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tennessee	6.0	6.5	6.8
UTSA	UAB	-10.7	-10.1	-11.5
Southern Miss.	North Texas	4.8	3.4	4.0
Western Kentucky	Army	-8.9	-8.0	-6.9
Florida Int’l.	Charlotte	7.8	7.0	7.6
Louisiana Tech	Massachusetts	29.6	27.4	30.4
Air Force	Fresno St.	0.9	1.7	1.2
Notre Dame	USC	16.8	14.3	16.6
Clemson	Florida St.	30.7	27.3	31.4
Iowa	Penn St.	-1.1	-2.0	-0.8
San Diego St.	Wyoming	3.3	3.1	2.7
FBS vs. FCS
Virginia Tech	Rhode Island	22.0

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	135.0	133.9	135.9	134.9
2	Alabama	135.7	132.2	136.4	134.7
3	Clemson	132.2	129.1	132.9	131.4
4	Georgia	128.6	126.9	129.1	128.2
5	L S U	128.0	125.6	127.4	127.0
6	Oklahoma	124.7	123.9	124.6	124.4
7	Penn St.	122.4	121.5	122.3	122.1
8	Florida	122.8	119.9	122.4	121.7
9	Notre Dame	121.1	119.3	121.2	120.5
10	Auburn	121.2	119.3	120.8	120.4
11	Wisconsin	120.5	120.1	120.5	120.4
12	Michigan	119.4	117.6	119.7	118.9
13	Utah	118.7	117.2	119.1	118.3
14	Iowa	118.4	116.5	118.6	117.8
15	Michigan St.	116.9	116.2	116.8	116.6
16	Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6
17	Missouri	116.6	114.2	116.9	115.9
18	Texas A&M	116.9	115.3	115.4	115.9
19	Iowa St.	114.0	114.6	114.1	114.2
20	Mississippi St.	112.9	109.0	117.9	113.3
21	Texas	113.0	113.2	113.2	113.1
22	Baylor	112.7	112.9	112.4	112.7
23	Washington	112.2	111.8	113.2	112.4
24	South Carolina	112.3	110.6	112.0	111.6
25	Central Florida	111.2	110.3	112.1	111.2
26	Washington St.	110.9	109.9	111.0	110.6
27	Minnesota	110.5	109.9	109.6	110.0
28	Oklahoma St.	109.7	110.2	109.3	109.7
29	Arizona St.	108.4	107.8	109.3	108.5
30	Cincinnati	108.6	107.1	109.0	108.2
31	Virginia	107.8	108.0	107.9	107.9
32	Kansas St.	107.9	107.5	107.5	107.6
33	U S C	107.2	108.0	107.5	107.6
34	Duke	107.6	107.1	107.5	107.4
35	Maryland	107.8	107.3	107.0	107.4
36	Indiana	107.8	106.3	106.9	107.0
37	Boise St.	106.7	106.2	107.2	106.7
38	Northwestern	107.2	106.4	106.2	106.6
39	Syracuse	106.7	106.2	106.7	106.5
40	California	105.9	105.6	106.9	106.1
41	T C U	105.0	108.0	105.3	106.1
42	North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1
43	Stanford	106.1	105.3	105.9	105.8
44	Miami (Fla.)	105.8	105.0	106.4	105.7
45	Kentucky	106.6	105.0	105.0	105.5
46	Pittsburgh	105.5	105.2	105.6	105.4
47	Memphis	105.0	105.0	105.8	105.3
48	Nebraska	105.0	106.0	104.6	105.2
49	Texas Tech	105.4	105.6	104.4	105.1
50	SMU	104.8	104.6	105.9	105.1
51	Appalachian St.	105.4	104.0	104.8	104.7
52	Wake Forest	104.7	104.2	105.3	104.7
53	Ole Miss	105.1	104.2	104.7	104.7
54	Florida St.	104.5	104.8	104.5	104.6
55	West Virginia	104.6	104.1	104.0	104.2
56	Utah St.	104.3	103.1	105.3	104.2
57	Tennessee	104.7	104.5	103.0	104.1
58	Purdue	104.1	103.8	103.2	103.7
59	Arizona	102.6	102.8	102.8	102.7
60	Tulane	101.6	102.2	102.3	102.0
61	Temple	101.7	100.8	102.6	101.7
62	Virginia Tech	100.9	101.0	101.3	101.1
63	North Carolina St.	100.7	100.4	100.8	100.6
64	Louisiana	100.3	100.5	100.2	100.3
65	Boston College	100.2	100.0	100.5	100.2
66	Army	99.9	99.9	99.4	99.8
67	Houston	98.4	99.5	101.1	99.6
68	BYU	99.7	99.6	99.6	99.6
69	Hawaii	99.2	100.9	98.6	99.6
70	Fresno St.	99.2	99.8	99.6	99.5
71	Colorado	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5
72	Vanderbilt	99.8	98.3	98.3	98.8
73	San Diego St.	98.2	100.0	98.1	98.8
74	Wyoming	97.8	99.9	98.4	98.7
75	Oregon St.	98.0	99.2	97.3	98.2
76	Western Michigan	98.5	97.4	98.2	98.0
77	Air Force	97.1	98.5	97.8	97.8
78	Arkansas	97.5	98.3	96.9	97.6
79	Louisville	96.4	96.2	95.9	96.1
80	Illinois	96.1	97.0	94.9	96.0
81	U C L A	96.4	96.1	95.4	96.0
82	Toledo	94.6	95.1	95.7	95.1
83	Southern Miss.	94.6	92.8	94.7	94.0
84	Kansas	93.6	94.6	93.4	93.9
85	Troy	94.0	94.2	92.9	93.7
86	Tulsa	93.1	93.8	94.1	93.7
87	Ohio	93.6	92.7	94.3	93.6
88	Georgia Southern	93.9	93.3	93.0	93.4
89	Georgia Tech	93.6	91.8	93.9	93.1
90	North Texas	92.8	92.4	93.7	93.0
91	Florida Atlantic	92.5	92.0	93.4	92.6
92	Northern Illinois	92.3	91.3	92.3	92.0
93	Navy	90.5	93.2	90.8	91.5
94	Louisiana Tech	91.2	91.0	91.1	91.1
95	Florida Int’l.	90.8	90.6	91.0	90.8
96	Arkansas St.	90.6	90.8	90.3	90.6
97	South Florida	89.5	90.5	89.7	89.9
98	Marshall	89.3	88.7	90.2	89.4
99	Middle Tennessee	89.5	88.5	89.6	89.2
100	Buffalo	88.7	89.1	89.7	89.1
101	Liberty	88.6	89.9	88.9	89.1
102	Western Kentucky	88.0	89.0	89.6	88.8
103	U A B	87.8	89.6	88.5	88.7
104	Ball St.	88.7	88.2	88.6	88.5
105	Nevada	87.9	89.6	87.3	88.3
106	Miami (Ohio)	88.5	86.8	88.7	88.0
107	Louisiana-Monroe	87.7	88.5	87.5	87.9
108	Georgia St.	87.5	88.8	86.8	87.7
109	Kent St.	87.3	87.2	87.6	87.4
110	Coastal Carolina	86.7	87.9	86.1	86.9
111	Eastern Michigan	86.2	86.5	86.7	86.5
112	Charlotte	86.1	86.6	86.4	86.4
113	San Jose St.	85.3	87.4	84.8	85.8
114	Rutgers	86.1	85.7	85.2	85.7
115	Central Michigan	84.6	85.4	85.3	85.1
116	Texas St.	83.7	84.6	83.5	83.9
117	East Carolina	82.7	84.6	82.6	83.3
118	U N L V	82.3	84.1	81.9	82.8
119	New Mexico	81.8	84.6	80.7	82.4
120	Colorado St.	80.6	84.4	80.8	81.9
121	Rice	80.3	81.7	79.7	80.6
122	Old Dominion	78.3	78.8	78.4	78.5
123	New Mexico St.	77.5	79.9	77.6	78.3
124	Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.1	74.5	75.4
125	South Alabama	74.1	77.0	73.4	74.9
126	Akron	73.8	74.1	73.0	73.6
127	Connecticut	72.0	75.9	70.6	72.8
128	Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0
129	U T E P	67.1	71.9	67.7	68.9
130	Massachusetts	64.6	66.6	63.7	65.0

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.2	110.3	112.1	111.2	1-1	4-2
Cincinnati	108.6	107.1	109.0	108.2	1-0	4-1
Temple	101.7	100.8	102.6	101.7	1-0	4-1
South Florida	89.5	90.5	89.7	89.9	1-1	2-3
East Carolina	82.7	84.6	82.6	83.3	0-2	3-3
Connecticut	72.0	75.9	70.6	72.8	0-2	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.0	105.0	105.8	105.3	1-0	5-0
SMU	104.8	104.6	105.9	105.1	2-0	6-0
Tulane	101.6	102.2	102.3	102.0	1-0	4-1
Houston	98.4	99.5	101.1	99.6	0-1	2-3
Tulsa	93.1	93.8	94.1	93.7	0-1	2-3
Navy	90.5	93.2	90.8	91.5	1-1	3-1
AAC Averages	96.6	97.3	97.2	97.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	132.2	129.1	132.9	131.4	3-0	5-0
Syracuse	106.7	106.2	106.7	106.5	0-1	3-2
Wake Forest	104.7	104.2	105.3	104.7	1-0	5-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.8	104.5	104.6	2-1	3-2
North Carolina St.	100.7	100.4	100.8	100.6	0-1	3-2
Boston College	100.2	100.0	100.5	100.2	1-2	3-3
Louisville	96.4	96.2	95.9	96.1	1-1	3-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.8	108.0	107.9	107.9	2-0	4-1
Duke	107.6	107.1	107.5	107.4	1-1	3-2
North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1	2-1	3-3
Miami (Fla.)	105.8	105.0	106.4	105.7	0-2	2-3
Pittsburgh	105.5	105.2	105.6	105.4	1-1	4-2
Virginia Tech	100.9	101.0	101.3	101.1	1-2	3-2
Georgia Tech	93.6	91.8	93.9	93.1	0-2	1-4
ACC Averages	105.2	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	124.7	123.9	124.6	124.4	2-0	5-0
Iowa St.	114.0	114.6	114.1	114.2	1-1	3-2
Texas	113.0	113.2	113.2	113.1	2-0	4-1
Baylor	112.7	112.9	112.4	112.7	2-0	5-0
Oklahoma St.	109.7	110.2	109.3	109.7	1-2	4-2
Kansas St.	107.9	107.5	107.5	107.6	0-2	3-2
T C U	105.0	108.0	105.3	106.1	1-1	3-2
Texas Tech	105.4	105.6	104.4	105.1	1-1	3-2
West Virginia	104.6	104.1	104.0	104.2	1-1	3-2
Kansas	93.6	94.6	93.4	93.9	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.1	109.5	108.8	109.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	135.0	133.9	135.9	134.9	3-0	6-0
Penn St.	122.4	121.5	122.3	122.1	2-0	5-0
Michigan	119.4	117.6	119.7	118.9	2-1	4-1
Michigan St.	116.9	116.2	116.8	116.6	2-1	4-2
Maryland	107.8	107.3	107.0	107.4	1-1	3-2
Indiana	107.8	106.3	106.9	107.0	0-2	3-2
Rutgers	86.1	85.7	85.2	85.7	0-3	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.5	120.1	120.5	120.4	2-0	5-0
Iowa	118.4	116.5	118.6	117.8	1-1	4-1
Minnesota	110.5	109.9	109.6	110.0	2-0	5-0
Northwestern	107.2	106.4	106.2	106.6	0-3	1-4
Nebraska	105.0	106.0	104.6	105.2	2-1	4-2
Purdue	104.1	103.8	103.2	103.7	0-2	1-4
Illinois	96.1	97.0	94.9	96.0	0-2	2-3
Big Ten Averages	111.2	110.6	110.8	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	92.5	92.0	93.4	92.6	1-0	3-2
Florida Int’l.	90.8	90.6	91.0	90.8	0-2	2-3
Marshall	89.3	88.7	90.2	89.4	0-1	2-3
Middle Tennessee	89.5	88.5	89.6	89.2	1-0	2-3
Western Kentucky	88.0	89.0	89.6	88.8	3-0	3-2
Charlotte	86.1	86.6	86.4	86.4	0-1	2-3
Old Dominion	78.3	78.8	78.4	78.5	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	92.8	94.7	94.0	1-0	3-2
North Texas	92.8	92.4	93.7	93.0	1-0	2-3
Louisiana Tech	91.2	91.0	91.1	91.1	2-0	4-1
U A B	87.8	89.6	88.5	88.7	1-1	4-1
Rice	80.3	81.7	79.7	80.6	0-2	0-6
Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.1	74.5	75.4	1-1	2-3
U T E P	67.1	71.9	67.7	68.9	0-2	1-4
CUSA Averages	85.9	86.5	86.3	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.1	119.3	121.2	120.5	x	4-1
Army	99.9	99.9	99.4	99.8	x	3-2
BYU	99.7	99.6	99.6	99.6	x	2-3
Liberty	88.6	89.9	88.9	89.1	x	4-2
New Mexico St.	77.5	79.9	77.6	78.3	x	0-6
Massachusetts	64.6	66.6	63.7	65.0	x	1-5
Indep. Averages	91.9	92.5	91.7	92.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	93.6	92.7	94.3	93.6	1-0	2-3
Buffalo	88.7	89.1	89.7	89.1	0-2	2-4
Miami (Ohio)	88.5	86.8	88.7	88.0	1-0	2-3
Kent St.	87.3	87.2	87.6	87.4	1-0	2-3
Akron	73.8	74.1	73.0	73.6	0-1	0-5
Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.5	97.4	98.2	98.0	1-1	3-3
Toledo	94.6	95.1	95.7	95.1	1-0	4-1
Northern Illinois	92.3	91.3	92.3	92.0	0-1	1-4
Ball St.	88.7	88.2	88.6	88.5	1-0	2-3
Eastern Michigan	86.2	86.5	86.7	86.5	0-1	3-2
Central Michigan	84.6	85.4	85.3	85.1	2-1	3-3
MAC Averages	87.4	87.1	87.7	87.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.7	106.2	107.2	106.7	2-0	5-0
Utah St.	104.3	103.1	105.3	104.2	2-0	3-2
Wyoming	97.8	99.9	98.4	98.7	1-0	4-1
Air Force	97.1	98.5	97.8	97.8	1-1	3-2
New Mexico	81.8	84.6	80.7	82.4	0-1	2-3
Colorado St.	80.6	84.4	80.8	81.9	0-2	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Hawaii	99.2	100.9	98.6	99.6	1-0	4-1
Fresno St.	99.2	99.8	99.6	99.5	0-0	2-2
San Diego St.	98.2	100.0	98.1	98.8	1-1	4-1
Nevada	87.9	89.6	87.3	88.3	0-1	3-2
San Jose St.	85.3	87.4	84.8	85.8	1-1	3-2
U N L V	82.3	84.1	81.9	82.8	0-2	1-4
MWC Averages	93.4	94.9	93.4	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6	2-0	4-1
Washington	112.2	111.8	113.2	112.4	1-2	4-2
Washington St.	110.9	109.9	111.0	110.6	0-2	3-2
California	105.9	105.6	106.9	106.1	1-2	4-2
Stanford	106.1	105.3	105.9	105.8	2-2	3-3
Oregon St.	98.0	99.2	97.3	98.2	1-1	2-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	118.7	117.2	119.1	118.3	1-1	4-1
Arizona St.	108.4	107.8	109.3	108.5	1-1	4-1
U S C	107.2	108.0	107.5	107.6	2-1	3-2
Arizona	102.6	102.8	102.8	102.7	2-0	4-1
Colorado	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5	1-1	3-2
U C L A	96.4	96.1	95.4	96.0	1-2	1-5
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.6	126.9	129.1	128.2	2-0	5-0
Florida	122.8	119.9	122.4	121.7	4-0	6-0
Missouri	116.6	114.2	116.9	115.9	1-0	4-1
South Carolina	112.3	110.6	112.0	111.6	1-2	2-3
Kentucky	106.6	105.0	105.0	105.5	0-3	2-3
Tennessee	104.7	104.5	103.0	104.1	0-2	1-4
Vanderbilt	99.8	98.3	98.3	98.8	0-3	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.7	132.2	136.4	134.7	2-0	5-0
L S U	128.0	125.6	127.4	127.0	1-0	5-0
Auburn	121.2	119.3	120.8	120.4	2-1	5-1
Texas A&M	116.9	115.3	115.4	115.9	1-1	3-2
Mississippi St.	112.9	109.0	117.9	113.3	1-1	3-2
Ole Miss	105.1	104.2	104.7	104.7	2-1	3-3
Arkansas	97.5	98.3	96.9	97.6	0-2	2-3
SEC Averages	114.9	113.1	114.7	114.2
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.4	104.0	104.8	104.7	1-0	4-0
Troy	94.0	94.2	92.9	93.7	0-1	2-3
Georgia Southern	93.9	93.3	93.0	93.4	1-1	2-3
Georgia St.	87.5	88.8	86.8	87.7	1-1	3-2
Coastal Carolina	86.7	87.9	86.1	86.9	0-1	3-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.3	100.5	100.2	100.3	1-0	4-1
Arkansas St.	90.6	90.8	90.3	90.6	1-1	3-3
Louisiana-Monroe	87.7	88.5	87.5	87.9	1-0	2-3
Texas St.	83.7	84.6	83.5	83.9	1-0	2-3
South Alabama	74.1	77.0	73.4	74.9	0-2	1-5
SBC Averages	90.4	91.0	89.9	90.4

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	114.2
2	BTen	110.9
3	B12	109.1
4	P12	106.9
5	ACC	105.1
6	AAC	97.0
7	MWC	93.9
8	Ind	92.0
9	SUN	90.4
10	MAC	87.4
11	CUSA	86.2

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Boise St.
2	Memphis
3	SMU
4	Cincinnati
5	Hawaii

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

The What-if It Were To Happen Edition

 

Submitted for your disapproval, what happens if Clemson loses a game this year to say Florida State, North Carolina St., South Carolina, or Virginia in the ACC Championship Game?  With their weak schedule, the Tigers would most likely not receive a bid to the NCAA Playoffs.

 

The Pac-12 has already eliminated itself from consideration.  We won’t even give Oregon a chance at 11-1, unless a lot of teams fall victims to upsets–too many to contemplate.

 

The Big Ten has three incredible teams in Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Additionally, Minnesota is still undefeated, and Michigan is, well, Michigan.  More than likely one Big Ten team will run the table and finish 13-0 to guarantee a spot in the Playoffs.  There could be a one-loss team in consideration, but with power at the top, it is possible that there will be only an undefeated or one loss team and multiple two-loss teams.

 

In the Big 12, Oklahoma always tends to slip up against somebody but then recovers to win the Big 12 Championship Game.  If the Sooners were to lose to Texas, Baylor, or Iowa State, or if they lost in the Big 12 Championship Game, would a one-loss OU team be good enough to make the top four?

 

Now consider the giant.  Let’s say Alabama, LSU, and Georgia combine to have one undefeated team and two, one-loss teams.  Say, Alabama goes 12-0 and wins the SEC Championship Game over 12-0 Georgia, while LSU only loses at Alabama in a close game to have a record of 11-1.

 

Could it be that THREE SEC teams would finish ranked in the top 4?  That’s the scenario we present today in our bowl and playoff projections.  We are not saying this is a certainty; we just wanted to show you how it might play out if Alabama, Georgia, and LSU finished ranked in the top 4.

 

You may ask if any conference has ever had three of the top four teams in a season, and not only will we answer, we’ll go one better.  In 1971, Nebraska finished number one; Oklahoma was number two; and Colorado was number three, all from the old Big 8 Conference.  It almost happened in 2011, when Alabama finished number one, LSU number two, and Arkansas number five.   That Arkansas team lost to just Alabama and LSU that year. 

 

Take a look at how this plays out.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Wyoming]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Toledo
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Hawaii	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	UAB
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Tulane
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	Maryland
Military	ACC	AAC	Syracuse	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Ole Miss
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Utah	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Colorado
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Wake Forest	Baylor
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Boise St.	Notre Dame
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	West Virginia
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona	Michigan St.
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Army]	Florida St.
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Clemson	Wisconsin
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina St.	Washington
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	[Arkansas St.]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	Fresno St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Arizona St.
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Virginia
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Florida
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Kansas St.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Mississippi St.	Michigan
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Indiana	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio	Appalachian St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Georgia
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	LSU
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 30, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Thursday	October 3
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Alabama	Georgia Southern	-19.4	-15.7	-19.6
East Carolina	Temple	-16.8	-13.6	-18.1
Friday	October 4
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	Central Florida	-0.5	-1.3	-1.4
San Jose St.	New Mexico	5.4	4.3	5.5
Saturday	October 5
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Connecticut	South Florida	-11.8	-8.9	-13.2
Louisville	Boston College	-1.5	-1.7	-2.9
Georgia Tech	North Carolina	-8.7	-10.7	-9.4
West Virginia	Texas	-4.9	-5.3	-5.2
Penn St.	Purdue	18.6	17.5	19.1
Northern Illinois	Ball St.	9.4	8.9	9.9
Army	Tulane	4.0	3.7	3.0
Duke	Pittsburgh	6.1	6.1	6.3
Kansas St.	Baylor	3.4	3.0	3.7
Rutgers	Maryland	-13.8	-13.5	-13.6
Texas Tech	Oklahoma St.	-4.5	-5.0	-5.6
Wisconsin	Kent St.	33.9	33.4	33.2
Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	-6.7	-6.4	-6.8
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia Tech	11.4	10.5	12.2
Missouri	Troy	25.2	22.5	26.6
New Mexico St.	Liberty	-8.1	-7.0	-8.3
Colorado	Arizona	0.4	0.2	0.4
Colorado St.	San Diego St.	-14.5	-12.5	-14.3
UCLA	Oregon St.	6.4	4.8	6.4
Oregon	California	13.5	13.9	13.7
Stanford	Washington	-6.4	-6.9	-8.1
SMU	Tulsa	15.1	14.3	15.4
Michigan	Iowa	3.7	3.5	3.5
Minnesota	Illinois	15.9	14.4	15.7
UAB	Rice	9.6	9.8	10.5
Nebraska	Northwestern	0.0	1.9	0.5
Tennessee	Georgia	-19.6	-18.2	-22.1
Navy	Air Force	-5.3	-3.8	-6.0
Toledo	Western Michigan	-3.8	-2.3	-2.6
Kansas	Oklahoma	-28.4	-26.5	-28.8
Buffalo	Ohio	-2.7	-1.3	-2.7
Iowa St.	TCU	8.1	5.1	7.5
Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	3.6	4.0	4.5
Middle Tennessee	Marshall	0.2	-0.4	-1.0
Notre Dame	Bowling Green	51.5	50.0	51.8
Georgia St.	Arkansas St.	-4.0	-2.7	-4.6
Old Dominion	Western Kentucky	-4.6	-4.8	-5.8
Florida	Auburn	2.0	1.1	1.7
Florida Int’l.	Massachusetts	25.5	22.9	26.4
Louisiana-Monroe	Memphis	-15.0	-14.4	-16.1
Ohio St.	Michigan St.	20.5	19.9	21.3
LSU	Utah St.	24.0	22.4	21.7
UTEP	UTSA	-4.9	-2.1	-3.7
UNLV	Boise St.	-21.4	-18.8	-22.0

 

There are no FBS vs. FCS Games Scheduled This Week

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	134.7	133.5	135.5	134.6
2	Alabama	135.4	131.9	136.1	134.4
3	Clemson	131.9	128.8	132.6	131.1
4	Georgia	128.0	126.3	128.6	127.6
5	L S U	126.8	124.2	125.8	125.6
6	Oklahoma	124.8	124.0	124.9	124.6
7	Auburn	122.4	120.5	122.2	121.7
8	Penn St.	121.1	120.0	120.9	120.7
9	Florida	121.5	118.6	120.9	120.3
10	Notre Dame	120.9	119.1	121.0	120.3
11	Wisconsin	119.2	118.7	119.0	119.0
12	Michigan	119.1	117.2	119.3	118.5
13	Utah	118.4	116.9	118.8	118.0
14	Iowa	118.5	116.7	118.8	118.0
15	Michigan St.	117.2	116.6	117.2	117.0
16	Oregon	116.5	116.5	117.6	116.9
17	Missouri	116.6	114.2	116.9	115.9
18	Texas A&M	116.6	115.0	115.1	115.6
19	Washington	113.8	113.5	115.1	114.1
20	Mississippi St.	112.6	108.7	117.6	113.0
21	Texas	112.7	112.8	112.7	112.7
22	Iowa St.	112.3	112.6	112.2	112.4
23	Central Florida	111.8	111.0	112.9	111.9
24	Oklahoma St.	111.3	111.9	111.1	111.4
25	South Carolina	112.0	110.3	111.7	111.3
26	Kansas St.	110.6	110.3	110.4	110.4
27	Washington St.	110.6	109.6	110.7	110.3
28	Baylor	110.2	110.3	109.7	110.1
29	Minnesota	109.9	109.3	108.8	109.3
30	T C U	107.2	110.5	107.7	108.5
31	Arizona St.	108.1	107.5	109.0	108.2
32	Duke	108.2	107.8	108.3	108.1
33	Miami (Fla.)	107.9	107.1	108.8	107.9
34	Cincinnati	108.3	106.7	108.5	107.8
35	Virginia	107.5	107.7	107.6	107.6
36	U S C	106.9	107.7	107.2	107.3
37	Northwestern	107.7	106.9	106.8	107.1
38	Indiana	107.5	106.0	106.6	106.7
39	Boise St.	106.5	105.8	106.8	106.4
40	Syracuse	106.4	105.9	106.4	106.2
41	California	105.9	105.6	106.9	106.1
42	Utah St.	105.8	104.8	107.2	105.9
43	North Carolina	105.4	105.5	106.5	105.8
44	SMU	105.4	105.2	106.6	105.7
45	Purdue	105.6	105.5	104.8	105.3
46	Memphis	105.0	105.0	105.8	105.3
47	Kentucky	106.3	104.7	104.7	105.2
48	Maryland	105.6	105.0	104.6	105.1
49	Nebraska	104.8	105.8	104.3	105.0
50	Pittsburgh	105.1	104.7	105.0	104.9
51	Tennessee	105.3	105.1	103.5	104.6
52	West Virginia	104.9	104.5	104.5	104.6
53	Appalachian St.	105.2	103.8	104.6	104.5
54	Wake Forest	104.4	103.9	105.0	104.4
55	Florida St.	104.2	104.5	104.2	104.3
56	Stanford	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0
57	Texas Tech	103.8	103.9	102.6	103.4
58	Ole Miss	103.0	102.0	102.5	102.5
59	Arizona	102.4	102.5	102.4	102.4
60	Temple	101.9	100.9	103.0	101.9
61	Vanderbilt	102.4	101.0	101.0	101.5
62	Army	101.4	101.5	101.0	101.3
63	Boston College	100.7	100.6	101.3	100.9
64	Tulane	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.8
65	North Carolina St.	100.4	100.1	100.5	100.3
66	Louisiana	100.1	100.3	100.0	100.1
67	Colorado	99.8	99.7	99.9	99.8
68	Western Michigan	100.1	99.0	99.9	99.7
69	Virginia Tech	99.5	99.6	99.6	99.6
70	BYU	99.5	99.4	99.4	99.4
71	Houston	98.1	99.2	100.8	99.3
72	Hawaii	98.9	100.6	98.3	99.3
73	Fresno St.	98.9	99.5	99.3	99.2
74	Air Force	98.1	99.4	99.0	98.8
75	San Diego St.	98.2	99.9	98.1	98.7
76	U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.2	98.7
77	Wyoming	97.5	99.6	98.1	98.4
78	Arkansas	97.2	98.0	96.6	97.3
79	Illinois	97.0	97.9	96.0	97.0
80	Louisville	96.2	95.9	95.4	95.8
81	Oregon St.	95.7	96.9	94.8	95.8
82	Georgia Southern	95.2	94.5	94.5	94.8
83	Troy	94.4	94.6	93.3	94.1
84	Southern Miss.	94.4	92.6	94.5	93.8
85	Northern Illinois	94.1	93.1	94.3	93.8
86	Toledo	93.3	93.8	94.3	93.8
87	Ohio	93.7	92.8	94.6	93.7
88	Georgia Tech	94.2	92.3	94.6	93.7
89	Kansas	93.5	94.5	93.1	93.7
90	Tulsa	92.8	93.5	93.7	93.3
91	North Texas	92.6	92.2	93.5	92.8
92	Florida Atlantic	92.3	91.8	93.2	92.4
93	Arkansas St.	92.4	92.6	92.3	92.4
94	Marshall	90.7	90.2	91.8	90.9
95	Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.8	90.9	90.9
96	Navy	89.8	92.6	89.9	90.8
97	Eastern Michigan	89.7	90.1	90.4	90.1
98	Florida Int’l.	89.3	88.9	89.4	89.2
99	Liberty	88.6	89.9	88.9	89.1
100	Buffalo	88.6	89.0	89.4	89.0
101	Rutgers	89.3	89.0	88.6	89.0
102	South Florida	88.4	89.4	88.5	88.8
103	Kent St.	88.3	88.3	88.8	88.5
104	U A B	87.6	89.3	88.1	88.4
105	Middle Tennessee	88.4	87.3	88.3	88.0
106	Nevada	87.6	89.3	87.0	88.0
107	Miami (Ohio)	88.3	86.6	88.5	87.8
108	Louisiana-Monroe	87.4	88.2	87.2	87.6
109	Western Kentucky	86.7	87.6	88.2	87.5
110	Ball St.	87.2	86.7	86.9	86.9
111	Coastal Carolina	86.5	87.7	85.9	86.7
112	Charlotte	85.9	86.4	86.2	86.2
113	Georgia St.	86.0	87.3	85.1	86.1
114	San Jose St.	85.0	86.9	84.3	85.4
115	Texas St.	83.5	84.4	83.3	83.7
116	U N L V	82.5	84.5	82.3	83.1
117	New Mexico	82.1	85.1	81.2	82.8
118	East Carolina	82.2	84.2	81.9	82.8
119	Colorado St.	80.6	84.5	80.8	82.0
120	Central Michigan	81.1	81.8	81.6	81.5
121	Rice	80.5	82.0	80.1	80.9
122	Old Dominion	79.6	80.2	79.8	79.9
123	New Mexico St.	77.5	79.9	77.6	78.3
124	Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.7	74.1	75.1
125	Connecticut	73.6	77.5	72.3	74.5
126	South Alabama	73.3	76.3	72.4	74.0
127	Akron	73.6	73.9	72.8	73.4
128	Bowling Green	72.3	72.0	72.1	72.2
129	U T E P	67.6	72.6	68.4	69.5
130	Massachusetts	66.8	69.0	66.0	67.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	114.0
2	BTen	110.9
3	B12	109.2
4	P12	106.8
5	ACC	105.1
6	AAC	96.9
7	MWC	94.0
8	Ind	92.6
9	SUN	90.4
10	MAC	87.5
11	CUSA	86.1

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Boise St.
2	Memphis
3	SMU
4	Central Florida
5	Hawaii

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.8	111.0	112.9	111.9	1-0	4-1
Cincinnati	108.3	106.7	108.5	107.8	0-0	3-1
Temple	101.9	100.9	103.0	101.9	0-0	3-1
South Florida	88.4	89.4	88.5	88.8	0-1	1-3
East Carolina	82.2	84.2	81.9	82.8	0-1	3-2
Connecticut	73.6	77.5	72.3	74.5	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	105.4	105.2	106.6	105.7	1-0	5-0
Memphis	105.0	105.0	105.8	105.3	1-0	4-0
Tulane	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.8	1-0	3-1
Houston	98.1	99.2	100.8	99.3	0-1	2-3
Tulsa	92.8	93.5	93.7	93.3	0-0	2-2
Navy	89.8	92.6	89.9	90.8	1-1	2-1
AAC Averages	96.5	97.2	97.1	96.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	131.9	128.8	132.6	131.1	3-0	5-0
Syracuse	106.4	105.9	106.4	106.2	0-1	3-2
Wake Forest	104.4	103.9	105.0	104.4	1-0	5-0
Florida St.	104.2	104.5	104.2	104.3	2-1	3-2
Boston College	100.7	100.6	101.3	100.9	1-1	3-2
North Carolina St.	100.4	100.1	100.5	100.3	0-1	3-2
Louisville	96.2	95.9	95.4	95.8	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Duke	108.2	107.8	108.3	108.1	1-0	3-1
Miami (Fla.)	107.9	107.1	108.8	107.9	0-1	2-2
Virginia	107.5	107.7	107.6	107.6	2-0	4-1
North Carolina	105.4	105.5	106.5	105.8	1-1	2-3
Pittsburgh	105.1	104.7	105.0	104.9	0-1	3-2
Virginia Tech	99.5	99.6	99.6	99.6	0-2	2-2
Georgia Tech	94.2	92.3	94.6	93.7	0-1	1-3
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	124.8	124.0	124.9	124.6	1-0	4-0
Texas	112.7	112.8	112.7	112.7	1-0	3-1
Iowa St.	112.3	112.6	112.2	112.4	0-1	2-2
Oklahoma St.	111.3	111.9	111.1	111.4	1-1	4-1
Kansas St.	110.6	110.3	110.4	110.4	0-1	3-1
Baylor	110.2	110.3	109.7	110.1	1-0	4-0
T C U	107.2	110.5	107.7	108.5	1-0	3-1
West Virginia	104.9	104.5	104.5	104.6	1-0	3-1
Texas Tech	103.8	103.9	102.6	103.4	0-1	2-2
Kansas	93.5	94.5	93.1	93.7	0-2	2-3
Big 12 Averages	109.1	109.5	108.9	109.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	134.7	133.5	135.5	134.6	2-0	5-0
Penn St.	121.1	120.0	120.9	120.7	1-0	4-0
Michigan	119.1	117.2	119.3	118.5	1-1	3-1
Michigan St.	117.2	116.6	117.2	117.0	2-0	4-1
Indiana	107.5	106.0	106.6	106.7	0-2	3-2
Maryland	105.6	105.0	104.6	105.1	0-1	2-2
Rutgers	89.3	89.0	88.6	89.0	0-2	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	119.2	118.7	119.0	119.0	2-0	4-0
Iowa	118.5	116.7	118.8	118.0	1-0	4-0
Minnesota	109.9	109.3	108.8	109.3	1-0	4-0
Northwestern	107.7	106.9	106.8	107.1	0-2	1-3
Purdue	105.6	105.5	104.8	105.3	0-1	1-3
Nebraska	104.8	105.8	104.3	105.0	1-1	3-2
Illinois	97.0	97.9	96.0	97.0	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	111.2	110.6	110.8	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	92.3	91.8	93.2	92.4	1-0	3-2
Marshall	90.7	90.2	91.8	90.9	0-0	2-2
Florida Int’l.	89.3	88.9	89.4	89.2	0-2	1-3
Middle Tennessee	88.4	87.3	88.3	88.0	0-0	1-3
Western Kentucky	86.7	87.6	88.2	87.5	2-0	2-2
Charlotte	85.9	86.4	86.2	86.2	0-1	2-3
Old Dominion	79.6	80.2	79.8	79.9	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.4	92.6	94.5	93.8	1-0	3-2
North Texas	92.6	92.2	93.5	92.8	1-0	2-3
Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.8	90.9	90.9	2-0	4-1
U A B	87.6	89.3	88.1	88.4	0-1	3-1
Rice	80.5	82.0	80.1	80.9	0-1	0-5
Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.7	74.1	75.1	0-1	1-3
U T E P	67.6	72.6	68.4	69.5	0-1	1-3
CUSA Averages	85.8	86.3	86.2	86.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.9	119.1	121.0	120.3	x	3-1
Army	101.4	101.5	101.0	101.3	x	3-1
BYU	99.5	99.4	99.4	99.4	x	2-3
Liberty	88.6	89.9	88.9	89.1	x	3-2
New Mexico St.	77.5	79.9	77.6	78.3	x	0-5
Massachusetts	66.8	69.0	66.0	67.3	x	1-4
Indep. Averages	92.4	93.1	92.3	92.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	93.7	92.8	94.6	93.7	0-0	1-3
Buffalo	88.6	89.0	89.4	89.0	0-1	2-3
Kent St.	88.3	88.3	88.8	88.5	1-0	2-2
Miami (Ohio)	88.3	86.6	88.5	87.8	1-0	2-3
Akron	73.6	73.9	72.8	73.4	0-1	0-5
Bowling Green	72.3	72.0	72.1	72.2	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	100.1	99.0	99.9	99.7	1-0	3-2
Northern Illinois	94.1	93.1	94.3	93.8	0-0	1-3
Toledo	93.3	93.8	94.3	93.8	0-0	3-1
Eastern Michigan	89.7	90.1	90.4	90.1	0-0	3-1
Ball St.	87.2	86.7	86.9	86.9	0-0	1-3
Central Michigan	81.1	81.8	81.6	81.5	1-1	2-3
MAC Averages	87.5	87.3	87.8	87.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.5	105.8	106.8	106.4	1-0	4-0
Utah St.	105.8	104.8	107.2	105.9	2-0	3-1
Air Force	98.1	99.4	99.0	98.8	1-1	3-1
Wyoming	97.5	99.6	98.1	98.4	1-0	4-1
New Mexico	82.1	85.1	81.2	82.8	0-0	2-2
Colorado St.	80.6	84.5	80.8	82.0	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Hawaii	98.9	100.6	98.3	99.3	1-0	4-1
Fresno St.	98.9	99.5	99.3	99.2	0-0	2-2
San Diego St.	98.2	99.9	98.1	98.7	0-1	3-1
Nevada	87.6	89.3	87.0	88.0	0-1	3-2
San Jose St.	85.0	86.9	84.3	85.4	0-1	2-2
U N L V	82.5	84.5	82.3	83.1	0-1	1-3
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.5	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.5	116.5	117.6	116.9	1-0	3-1
Washington	113.8	113.5	115.1	114.1	1-1	4-1
Washington St.	110.6	109.6	110.7	110.3	0-2	3-2
California	105.9	105.6	106.9	106.1	1-1	4-1
Stanford	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0	1-2	2-3
Oregon St.	95.7	96.9	94.8	95.8	0-1	1-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	118.4	116.9	118.8	118.0	1-1	4-1
Arizona St.	108.1	107.5	109.0	108.2	1-1	4-1
U S C	106.9	107.7	107.2	107.3	2-1	3-2
Arizona	102.4	102.5	102.4	102.4	1-0	3-1
Colorado	99.8	99.7	99.9	99.8	1-0	3-1
U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.2	98.7	1-1	1-4
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.0	126.3	128.6	127.6	1-0	4-0
Florida	121.5	118.6	120.9	120.3	3-0	5-0
Missouri	116.6	114.2	116.9	115.9	1-0	3-1
South Carolina	112.0	110.3	111.7	111.3	1-2	2-3
Kentucky	106.3	104.7	104.7	105.2	0-3	2-3
Tennessee	105.3	105.1	103.5	104.6	0-1	1-3
Vanderbilt	102.4	101.0	101.0	101.5	0-2	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.4	131.9	136.1	134.4	2-0	5-0
L S U	126.8	124.2	125.8	125.6	1-0	4-0
Auburn	122.4	120.5	122.2	121.7	2-0	5-0
Texas A&M	116.6	115.0	115.1	115.6	1-1	3-2
Mississippi St.	112.6	108.7	117.6	113.0	1-1	3-2
Ole Miss	103.0	102.0	102.5	102.5	1-1	2-3
Arkansas	97.2	98.0	96.6	97.3	0-2	2-3
SEC Averages	114.7	112.9	114.5	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.2	103.8	104.6	104.5	1-0	4-0
Georgia Southern	95.2	94.5	94.5	94.8	0-1	1-3
Troy	94.4	94.6	93.3	94.1	0-1	2-2
Coastal Carolina	86.5	87.7	85.9	86.7	0-1	3-2
Georgia St.	86.0	87.3	85.1	86.1	0-1	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.1	100.3	100.0	100.1	1-0	4-1
Arkansas St.	92.4	92.6	92.3	92.4	1-0	3-2
Louisiana-Monroe	87.4	88.2	87.2	87.6	1-0	2-2
Texas St.	83.5	84.4	83.3	83.7	1-0	2-3
South Alabama	73.3	76.3	72.4	74.0	0-1	1-4
SBC Averages	90.4	91.0	89.9	90.4

 

 

Bowls and Playoffs Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[UAB]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Temple	Georgia Southern
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Toledo
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Hawaii	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Marshall	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Southern Miss.
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Tulane
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[West.  Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Indiana
Military	ACC	AAC	Syracuse	East Carolina
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Oregon	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	Arizona
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Boise St.	LSU
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	[Wyoming]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Nebraska
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Miami (O)]	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Alabama
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	[Army]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Colorado
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	[Boston College]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Iowa
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Auburn
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[North Carolina St.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Minnesota
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[California]	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Appalachian St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Georgia
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Oklahoma	Clemson
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

 

One full month into the season, and the Playoff Committee and Bowl Committees look to be having opposite issues.

There are multiple strong teams left in the Playoff picture, more than in any year since the FBS Playoffs began.  With Clemson, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and even Wake Forest, Minnesota, and Baylor still alive as Power 5 Undefeated teams, and with one-loss teams like Washington, Oregon, Utah, Texas, and Notre Dame still holding slim hopes,  the Playoff Committee will have multiple teams to choose just four.  It could be that this is the year where it becomes evident that at least six and maybe eight teams should be included in the Playoffs.

On the other end of the spectrum, many bowl committees are looking at the probability that they will need to secure an at-large team participant.  Chief among these bowl problems are the bottom group of SEC contractual games.  You will see the problem as we go conference by conference.  Some of the SEC bowls are going to have to make do with inferior substitutes.  These bowl might petition the NCAA to expand the playoffs so that they don’t have to seek out 6-6 teams from Group of 5 conferences for at-large inclusion in their games.

American Athletic

With Central Florida now on the outside looking in for the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid, Memphis and SMU are still undefeated, but neither team ranks near Boise State.  One of these three would have to finish ahead of Boise State and win the AAC Championship Game in order to sneak into the Cotton Bowl.

As of today, it looks like the AAC will have seven bowl eligible teams for seven bowls.  Two from a group that includes Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa, Navy, or Houston should sneak in at 6-6.

Atlantic Coast 

Even with the close scare, Clemson stays in strong contention for the Playoffs.  Their schedule is the easiest of all the contenders, and this should give the Tigers a better than 50-50 chance of running the table to 13-0.  The problem is their strength of schedule might knock them down all the way to fourth place in the seedings.  If CU loses a game, they might be headed to the Orange Bowl instead of the Playoffs.

Including Notre Dame with the ACC bowl contracts, this looks like a league that will have 12 bowl eligible teams.  If Clemson makes the Playoffs, Notre Dame could easily take the Orange Bowl bid, moving the Coastal Division Champion to the Camping World Bowl.

The ACC will almost assuredly send one extra team to fill a vacant bowl slot, and as of today, we believe two extra bowl eligible teams will become at-large participants.  Since the Birmingham Bowl has a secondary agreement with this league, the number 11 bowl team will go here.  The number 12 bowl team should fill another vacant SEC slot.

Big 12

At this point of the season, we cannot find a probable loss for Oklahoma, so we are including them in the Playoffs as a 13-0 team.  There could be a major logjam for the number two spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.  The rest of the league is rather close in talent, and it would not surprise us to see as many as four teams finishing with 6-3 conference records.  In our scenario today, we show Iowa State winning the tiebreaker between four 6-3 teams.

With Oklahoma picked to make the playoffs, there will not be enough bowl eligible teams to satisfy this league’s allotments.  The First Responders Bowl has gotten used to having to look for an at-large participant, and they will more than likely look to the Mountain West for the second season in a row.

Big Ten

This conference always provides headaches at PiRate Bowl Selection Central.  There are more rules involving this conference than any other.  First, there is a  possibility that the Big Ten can have a team in the Orange Bowl, but if not, then they are guaranteed a spot in the Citrus Bowl.  Then, there is a choice between the Gator and Music City Bowls; this year, it is almost a metaphysical certitude that a Big Ten team will go to the Gator Bowl rather than the Music City Bowl.  

Then, the rest of the bowls in the Big Ten contractual lineup have rules where teams that have played in their game in the last five years will not be invited.  The higher up on the pecking order, the more strict this rule is.  The lower bowls still require five different teams in a six-year period.

This is where we had to move around some teams to guarantee the rules were followed.  First, Ohio State looks like the number one team in the nation so far.  We have the Buckeyes winning out, which includes topping Wisconsin twice, as well as Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State.

The best from Wisconsin, Penn State, and Iowa will then slide into the Rose Bowl, while the second best will be up for consideration in the Orange Bowl.  If Notre Dame takes that Orange Bowl spot, then that third best team slips to the Citrus Bowl.

Placing Wisconsin in the Rose, it works to have Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, because the Citrus Bowl does not want to see Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State this year.

The Outback is next in the pecking order, and they get to veto Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.  We placed Penn State there.

Next up is the Holiday Bowl.  They just say no to Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Northwestern.  That’s just fine for the boys from A2–place Michigan in this one.

The Gator gets the next bowl team, and since the Music City Bowl has been taking Big Ten teams in recent years, this is good for the Taxslayer people that will choose their representative.  Only Penn State and Iowa are off the board here, and they will be taken by this time.  The Gator can then choose Minnesota.

Next up is the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx, and they have an embargo on Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Michigan State should be available for this pick, and Sparty will be a good fit with their grind it out style outdoors at Yankee Stadium in late December.

The Redbox Bowl is going to be in a little predicament at this point.  We figure that all that will be left for this bowl are 6-6 Nebraska and 6-6 Indiana.  Both teams have played in this bowl, as the Redbox people would prefer not to see Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, and Michigan State.  This is where the five teams in six years rule will have to be exercised, because we expect only the Cornhuskers and Hoosiers to be left.  We’re giving the call to Nebraska.

That will leave Indiana for the Quick Lane Bowl.  The Armed Forces Bowl is just like the First Responders Bowl; rarely does this bowl get its Big Ten/Big 12 representative.

Conference USA 

UAB’s loss Saturday to Western Kentucky basically eliminated this league from NY6 Bowl contention.  CUSA has five bowl contracts, but seven teams should be bowl eligible at the end of the year.  This league has a secondary agreement with the Frisco Bowl, and we expect the Frisco Bowl to invite a CUSA team.

CUSA also has a secondary agreement with the Independence Bowl, and there should be a final bowl eligible team to satisfy this agreement.  CUSA may actually decide to send a stronger team to Shreveport to play an ACC opponent and slide a 6-6 team into a regularly contracted bowl.

Independents

We are not including Notre Dame here, as they are able to secure an ACC bowl bid.  There should be three additional bowl eligible teams among the Independents.  First, if BYU is bowl eligible, the Cougars are guaranteed a spot in the Hawaii Bowl.  It looks like BYU could finish 6-6, so their reward for Christmas will be an escape from the snowy Utah mountains to beautiful sunny weather on the beach.

Army most definitely will be bowl eligible.  They automatically bring their corps of cadets with them, so Uncle Sam will financially secure the bowl game that invites our heroes from West Point.

Liberty could finish as strong as 8-4, but the Flames will have two FCS wins to get there.  Because they only have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl, and because the Cure Bowl should be able to place its regular contracted teams in their game, Liberty is likely to be left out this year.

Mid-American

This is another league where there are always more bowl eligible teams than there are bowls.  Usually, multiple 6-6 teams stay home for the holidays, and this year, there could be a trio of them.

The MAC has five main bowl agreements, and the Frisco Bowl can choose a sixth team.  With CUSA having extra teams this year, it is our belief that the Frisco Bowl will choose a team closer to the Metroplex in Texas.

What that means is that eight teams will be competing for five bowl spots.  We believe that Miami of Ohio, Kent State, and Buffalo could all finish 6-6, and there might be room for just one of these teams to sneak in as an at-large team somewhere in the South.  Miami of Ohio and Buffalo sell about the same number of tickets to home games, but Miami is a bigger name in football history.  We believe the Red Hawks would be the top choice in this 6-6 triad.

Mountain West

Could this be the year Boise State runs the table for the first time since 2009?  The Broncos look to be stronger than they have been in the last four years.  Their schedule still has some trap games, but for now, we will move Boise to the NY6 Bowl, which should be the Cotton Bowl.

All told, it looks like there could be eight bowl eligible teams this year, and with Boise taking the extra bid, there should be room for seven conference bowl teams.  It is likely that one 6-6 team will be left out, because one of the at-large bowl games will already have a MWC team in it.  If BYU were to go 5-7 and not earn the Hawaii Bowl trip, then that final bowl eligible team will have a slot.

Pac-12

For all practical purposes, the Conference of Champions will not produce a national champion again this year, and it is most unlikely that the league champ will make it to the Playoffs.  So, this conference is playing for the Rose Bowl.

When California quarterback Chase Garbers went down with an injury Friday night, and Arizona State rallied to knock off the Bears in Berkeley, it left no undefeated teams in this league.  The winner of the Washington-Oregon game is now a strong bet to win the North Division title. 

As for the South, it is as scrambled as ever.  Utah still looks like the best of the bunch, but the Utes’ offense is not the type to put teams away.  USC exposed their defense with crisp passing and some fortunate underthrows.  Utah may have the best chance to go 7-2, but the South could easily finish in a tie for first with teams that go 6-3 in league play.

The Pac-12 has seven bowl contracts, and it looks like this year there will be eight bowl eligible teams.  The team that does not make the regular group will become the number one choice for a bowl in the Lone Star State.

Southeastern

And now, we come to the major issues.  This league’s lesser bowls are sweating it out today.  There are five incredibly strong teams, and five incredibly weak teams.  Of the remaining four, one is not bowl eligible, and one is going to struggle to get to 6-6, 7-5 at best.

Let’s start with the good news.  Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, and Florida are all top ten teams.  If the season ended today, Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn would have to be considered top four teams and placed in the Playoffs.  

Eventually, these teams will beat up on each other.  It is possible that all five will suffer a loss before the end of November.  Do you punish this league for having five of the best eight teams in the nation?  Of course not!  The winner of the SEC Championship Game will make the playoffs.  The problem is that it will be really shoddy politics if the Selection Committee takes a second one-loss team for the Playoffs if there are three other undefeated teams like defending national champion Clemson, potentially number one Ohio State, and potentially number two Oklahoma.

So, let’s just say that Auburn goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to LSU.  Alabama goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Auburn.  LSU goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Alabama.  Meanwhile Florida falls to Auburn, LSU, and Georgia to be the best three-loss team in a generation.  Georgia also goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Auburn.

In the SEC Championship Game, Georgia gets revenge and beats Auburn to claim the number four seed in the Playoffs.  Meanwhile Auburn gets the Sugar Bowl bid, while Alabama gets the Orange Bowl bid.  The Cotton Bowl takes LSU.

Now, there are at most four additional bowl eligible teams from the SEC.  First up the Citrus Bowl gets their choice from among Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Kentucky.  We all know who they would take in this scenrio, and the 9-3 Gators are now off the board.

The Outback , Texas, and Gator bowls would then combine to take Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Kentucky in that order.  Since Missouri is on probation, there are no other bowl eligible teams, as Arkansas, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt will fall short.

Guess who else falls short?  There are no remaining teams for the Belk, Liberty, Music City, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls.  Yes!  Five bowls will have to find alternate participants. 

The Birmingham Bowl has a secondary agreement with the ACC, and they will get the #11 team, most likely a 6-6 squad.  The Independence Bowl has a secondary agreement with CUSA, and there should be an extra bowl eligible team for that one.

The best bet for an empty slot in the Belk Bowl might be Army.  The Cadets will invade Charlotte, and that bowl will have a lot of filled seats, especially if the opponent is a team from North Carolina like the Tar Heels, Blue Devils, Demon Deacons, or Wolfpack.

Alas, the two Volunteer State bowls will be hurting.  The Liberty and Music City Bowls will have to find somebody from among the sea of lesser 6-6 teams.  Because the Music City Bowl will have an ACC team, the #12 ACC bowl eligible team will go to Memphis and play in the Liberty Bowl.  That leaves the Music City Bowl looking at one of those three 6-6 MAC teams.  Our guess is that Miami of Ohio would be their choice in this situation, unless the folks at Franklin American Mortgage can do a backroom deal to get a better MAC team and send that 6-6 MAC team to the Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise.

Sun Belt

It looks like the Sun Belt will have five bowl eligible teams, and there will be room for all five, since this league has five for sure contracts plus an additional supplemental one.  Louisiana and Appalachian State look like the two top powers, but Arkansas State is still a potential division winner in the West.  Troy should be the number four team, while the fifth one should be either Georgia Southern or Louisiana-Monroe.

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	September 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Navy	18.1	15.0	19.5
Friday	September 27
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Duke	1.3	1.8	1.6
Maryland	Penn St.	-4.3	-3.8	-4.7
Air Force	San Jose St.	15.5	14.7	17.1
Saturday	September 28
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
California	Arizona St.	3.6	4.3	4.2
Wisconsin	Northwestern	15.0	15.7	16.3
Boston College	Wake Forest	-0.5	-0.1	-0.5
Central Florda	Connecticut	40.6	35.9	43.0
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	21.3	19.4	21.0
South Florida	SMU	-8.6	-7.4	-9.3
Miami (O)	Buffalo	1.9	-0.6	1.1
Temple	Georgia Tech	6.9	7.7	7.4
Florida St.	North Carolina St.	3.6	4.0	3.2
Baylor	Iowa St.	0.7	0.6	0.3
Toledo	BYU	-6.0	-5.6	-5.3
Massachusetts	Akron	-8.8	-6.7	-9.2
Michigan	Rutgers	28.4	26.4	29.1
Purdue	Minnesota	-0.9	-0.2	0.1
Georgia Southern	Louisiana	0.9	0.0	0.5
Iowa	Middle Tennessee	28.3	27.3	28.4
Wyoming	UNLV	13.1	13.0	13.5
Utah	Washington St.	6.7	5.9	6.6
New Mexico St.	Fresno St.	-20.3	-18.4	-21.1
Nevada	Hawaii	-0.4	-0.2	0.0
Oregon St.	Stanford	-6.5	-4.2	-7.5
Michigan St.	Indiana	13.4	14.6	14.9
North Carolina	Clemson	-29.2	-25.6	-29.3
South Carolina	Kentucky	6.3	6.0	7.4
Alabama	Ole Miss	37.1	34.3	39.1
Vanderbilt	Northern Illinois	10.6	10.5	9.3
TCU	Kansas	12.0	14.2	12.4
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	1.1	1.9	0.6
Auburn	Mississippi St.	7.0	9.2	7.0
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	19.7	18.6	20.6
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-0.3	1.1	-0.5
Notre Dame	Virginia	16.6	14.2	16.8
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	21.0	17.9	21.1
Marshall	Cincinnati	-9.3	-8.2	-8.2
Old Dominion	East Carolina	0.3	-1.3	1.3
Liberty	New Mexico	9.2	7.3	10.5
Troy	Arkansas St.	7.7	8.1	7.2
Louisiana-Monroe	South Alabama	17.0	14.5	18.1
Southern Miss.	UTEP	31.1	23.6	30.8
Rice	Louisiana Tech	-8.9	-7.3	-9.8
Western Kentucky	UAB	1.7	0.4	2.2
Utah St.	Colorado St.	29.1	24.3	30.4
Nebraska	Ohio St.	-22.5	-19.6	-23.7
North Texas	Houston	0.8	-0.6	-0.8
Texas A&M (n)	Arkansas	23.8	21.2	23.3
Washington	USC	9.5	8.0	10.1
Arizona	UCLA	6.6	7.1	8.0

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor		PiRate
Syracuse	Holy Cross		35
Pittsburgh	Delaware		29
Florida	Towson St.		36

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	136.1	132.5	137.2	135.2
2	Clemson	134.9	131.6	135.8	134.1
3	Ohio St.	132.2	130.7	132.9	131.9
4	Georgia	127.7	126.0	128.3	127.3
5	L S U	126.5	123.9	125.5	125.3
6	Oklahoma	122.6	121.7	122.5	122.3
7	Notre Dame	121.0	119.0	121.2	120.4
8	Florida	121.4	118.5	120.8	120.2
9	Wisconsin	119.6	119.3	119.7	119.5
10	Auburn	119.2	117.4	118.8	118.5
11	Michigan St.	117.7	117.3	118.0	117.7
12	Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	117.0	117.3
13	Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6
14	Michigan	117.1	115.0	117.2	116.4
15	Penn St.	116.7	115.6	116.3	116.2
16	Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0
17	Missouri	116.3	113.9	116.6	115.6
18	Iowa	116.0	114.0	116.1	115.3
19	Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8
20	Mississippi St.	115.2	111.2	114.8	113.7
21	Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6
22	Iowa St.	112.4	112.7	112.3	112.5
23	Texas	112.4	112.5	112.4	112.4
24	Kansas St.	112.1	111.8	112.1	112.0
25	Central Florida	111.5	110.7	112.6	111.6
26	Oklahoma St.	110.1	110.7	109.7	110.2
27	South Carolina	110.8	109.0	110.4	110.1
28	Baylor	110.1	110.2	109.6	110.0
29	Minnesota	109.7	109.0	108.3	109.0
30	Maryland	109.4	108.8	108.6	108.9
31	California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0
32	Miami (Fla.)	107.6	106.8	108.5	107.6
33	U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6
34	Virginia	107.4	107.8	107.4	107.5
35	Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0
36	Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0
37	Northwestern	107.6	106.6	106.4	106.9
38	Kentucky	107.5	106.0	106.0	106.5
39	Utah St.	106.3	105.3	107.7	106.4
40	Indiana	107.3	105.6	106.1	106.3
41	Pittsburgh	106.3	105.9	106.2	106.1
42	Syracuse	106.3	105.8	106.3	106.1
43	Boise St.	106.2	105.5	106.5	106.1
44	T C U	104.8	108.1	105.1	106.0
45	Purdue	105.8	105.8	105.3	105.6
46	Texas Tech	105.9	106.1	104.9	105.6
47	Memphis	105.3	105.1	106.4	105.6
48	Duke	105.5	105.0	105.4	105.3
49	Cincinnati	105.4	103.8	105.5	104.9
50	Appalachian St.	105.3	103.7	104.8	104.6
51	Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6
52	Tennessee	105.0	104.8	103.2	104.3
53	Wake Forest	104.3	103.8	104.9	104.3
54	West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3
55	Virginia Tech	103.7	103.9	104.0	103.9
56	SMU	102.9	102.7	103.9	103.2
57	North Carolina	102.7	103.0	103.6	103.1
58	Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7
59	Florida St.	102.6	102.8	102.4	102.6
60	North Carolina St.	102.0	101.8	102.3	102.0
61	Vanderbilt	102.6	101.3	101.3	101.7
62	Ole Miss	102.0	101.1	101.1	101.4
63	Army	101.2	101.3	100.8	101.1
64	Boston College	100.8	100.7	101.4	101.0
65	BYU	100.9	100.9	101.0	100.9
66	Tulane	100.2	100.7	100.8	100.6
67	Temple	100.4	99.4	101.4	100.4
68	Fresno St.	99.7	100.3	100.4	100.1
69	Western Michigan	100.4	99.2	100.4	100.0
70	Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5
71	Louisiana	98.7	98.9	98.5	98.7
72	Air Force	97.8	99.0	98.7	98.5
73	San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.8	98.4
74	U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4
75	Houston	96.1	97.2	98.7	97.3
76	Illinois	96.7	97.6	95.7	96.7
77	Georgia Southern	96.6	95.9	96.0	96.2
78	Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2
79	Wyoming	95.2	97.2	95.6	96.0
80	Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0
81	Troy	95.8	96.1	94.9	95.6
82	Arkansas	95.5	96.4	94.7	95.6
83	Georgia Tech	96.0	94.1	96.5	95.5
84	Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5
85	Louisville	95.9	95.6	95.1	95.5
86	North Texas	94.9	94.5	95.9	95.1
87	Southern Miss.	95.2	93.0	95.5	94.6
88	Marshall	93.6	93.1	94.8	93.8
89	Northern Illinois	93.9	92.8	94.0	93.6
90	Ohio	93.5	92.6	94.4	93.5
91	Tulsa	92.6	93.3	93.5	93.1
92	Toledo	91.9	92.3	92.7	92.3
93	South Florida	91.3	92.3	91.6	91.7
94	Louisiana Tech	91.5	91.3	91.7	91.5
95	Rutgers	91.7	91.6	91.1	91.5
96	Nevada	90.8	92.6	90.4	91.3
97	Navy	90.1	93.1	89.9	91.1
98	Arkansas St.	91.0	91.1	90.7	90.9
99	Florida Atlantic	90.5	89.8	91.2	90.5
100	Middle Tennessee	90.6	89.7	90.7	90.3
101	Eastern Michigan	89.5	89.9	90.2	89.9
102	Buffalo	89.0	89.6	89.9	89.5
103	Liberty	88.7	89.9	89.1	89.2
104	Florida Int’l.	89.1	88.7	89.2	89.0
105	U A B	87.8	89.7	88.5	88.7
106	Kent St.	88.1	88.1	88.6	88.3
107	Charlotte	87.7	88.4	88.2	88.1
108	Louisiana-Monroe	87.6	88.3	87.6	87.8
109	Miami (Ohio)	87.9	86.0	88.0	87.3
110	Western Kentucky	86.5	87.2	87.8	87.1
111	Ball St.	87.0	86.5	86.7	86.7
112	Coastal Carolina	86.4	87.8	85.7	86.6
113	Georgia St.	85.8	87.1	84.9	85.9
114	U N L V	85.1	87.2	85.1	85.8
115	San Jose St.	85.3	87.3	84.6	85.7
116	Texas St.	83.0	83.9	82.8	83.2
117	New Mexico	82.0	85.1	81.0	82.7
118	East Carolina	82.0	84.1	81.5	82.5
119	Colorado St.	80.1	84.0	80.3	81.5
120	Central Michigan	81.1	81.9	81.4	81.4
121	Rice	80.0	81.5	79.3	80.3
122	Old Dominion	79.8	80.3	80.2	80.1
123	New Mexico St.	77.0	79.4	76.8	77.7
124	Akron	76.1	76.3	75.5	75.9
125	Texas-San Antonio	74.3	76.5	73.9	74.9
126	Connecticut	73.9	77.8	72.6	74.8
127	South Alabama	73.1	76.2	72.0	73.8
128	Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0
129	U T E P	67.1	72.5	67.7	69.1
130	Massachusetts	65.3	67.6	64.3	65.7

 

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.5	110.7	112.6	111.6	0-0	3-1
Cincinnati	105.4	103.8	105.5	104.9	0-0	2-1
Temple	100.4	99.4	101.4	100.4	0-0	2-1
South Florida	91.3	92.3	91.6	91.7	0-0	1-2
East Carolina	82.0	84.1	81.5	82.5	0-1	2-2
Connecticut	73.9	77.8	72.6	74.8	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.3	105.1	106.4	105.6	0-0	3-0
SMU	102.9	102.7	103.9	103.2	0-0	4-0
Tulane	100.2	100.7	100.8	100.6	1-0	3-1
Houston	96.1	97.2	98.7	97.3	0-1	1-3
Tulsa	92.6	93.3	93.5	93.1	0-0	2-2
Navy	90.1	93.1	89.9	91.1	1-0	2-0
AAC Averages	96.0	96.7	96.5	96.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.9	131.6	135.8	134.1	2-0	4-0
Syracuse	106.3	105.8	106.3	106.1	0-1	2-2
Wake Forest	104.3	103.8	104.9	104.3	0-0	4-0
Florida St.	102.6	102.8	102.4	102.6	1-1	2-2
North Carolina St.	102.0	101.8	102.3	102.0	0-0	3-1
Boston College	100.8	100.7	101.4	101.0	1-0	3-1
Louisville	95.9	95.6	95.1	95.5	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	107.6	106.8	108.5	107.6	0-1	2-2
Virginia	107.4	107.8	107.4	107.5	2-0	4-0
Pittsburgh	106.3	105.9	106.2	106.1	0-1	2-2
Duke	105.5	105.0	105.4	105.3	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	103.7	103.9	104.0	103.9	0-1	2-1
North Carolina	102.7	103.0	103.6	103.1	1-0	2-2
Georgia Tech	96.0	94.1	96.5	95.5	0-1	1-2
ACC Averages	105.4	104.9	105.7	105.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.6	121.7	122.5	122.3	0-0	3-0
Iowa St.	112.4	112.7	112.3	112.5	0-0	2-1
Texas	112.4	112.5	112.4	112.4	1-0	3-1
Kansas St.	112.1	111.8	112.1	112.0	0-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	110.1	110.7	109.7	110.2	0-1	3-1
Baylor	110.1	110.2	109.6	110.0	0-0	3-0
T C U	104.8	108.1	105.1	106.0	0-0	2-1
Texas Tech	105.9	106.1	104.9	105.6	0-0	2-1
West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3	1-0	3-1
Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2	0-1	2-2
Big 12 Averages	109.1	109.5	108.8	109.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	132.2	130.7	132.9	131.9	1-0	4-0
Michigan St.	117.7	117.3	118.0	117.7	1-0	3-1
Michigan	117.1	115.0	117.2	116.4	0-1	2-1
Penn St.	116.7	115.6	116.3	116.2	0-0	3-0
Maryland	109.4	108.8	108.6	108.9	0-0	2-1
Indiana	107.3	105.6	106.1	106.3	0-1	3-1
Rutgers	91.7	91.6	91.1	91.5	0-1	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	119.6	119.3	119.7	119.5	1-0	3-0
Iowa	116.0	114.0	116.1	115.3	1-0	3-0
Minnesota	109.7	109.0	108.3	109.0	0-0	3-0
Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0	1-0	3-1
Northwestern	107.6	106.6	106.4	106.9	0-1	1-2
Purdue	105.8	105.8	105.3	105.6	0-0	1-2
Illinois	96.7	97.6	95.7	96.7	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	111.0	110.4	110.6	110.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.6	93.1	94.8	93.8	0-0	2-1
Florida Atlantic	90.5	89.8	91.2	90.5	0-0	2-2
Middle Tennessee	90.6	89.7	90.7	90.3	0-0	1-2
Florida Int’l.	89.1	88.7	89.2	89.0	0-2	1-3
Charlotte	87.7	88.4	88.2	88.1	0-0	2-2
Western Kentucky	86.5	87.2	87.8	87.1	1-0	1-2
Old Dominion	79.8	80.3	80.2	80.1	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
North Texas	94.9	94.5	95.9	95.1	1-0	2-2
Southern Miss.	95.2	93.0	95.5	94.6	0-0	2-2
Louisiana Tech	91.5	91.3	91.7	91.5	1-0	3-1
U A B	87.8	89.7	88.5	88.7	0-0	3-0
Rice	80.0	81.5	79.3	80.3	0-0	0-4
Texas-San Antonio	74.3	76.5	73.9	74.9	0-1	1-3
U T E P	67.1	72.5	67.7	69.1	0-0	1-2
CUSA Averages	86.3	86.9	86.8	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.0	119.0	121.2	120.4	x	2-1
Army	101.2	101.3	100.8	101.1	x	3-1
BYU	100.9	100.9	101.0	100.9	x	2-2
Liberty	88.7	89.9	89.1	89.2	x	2-2
New Mexico St.	77.0	79.4	76.8	77.7	x	0-4
Massachusetts	65.3	67.6	64.3	65.7	x	0-4
Indep. Averages	92.3	93.0	92.2	92.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	93.5	92.6	94.4	93.5	0-0	1-3
Buffalo	89.0	89.6	89.9	89.5	0-0	2-2
Kent St.	88.1	88.1	88.6	88.3	1-0	2-2
Miami (Ohio)	87.9	86.0	88.0	87.3	0-0	1-3
Akron	76.1	76.3	75.5	75.9	0-1	0-4
Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	100.4	99.2	100.4	100.0	0-0	2-2
Northern Illinois	93.9	92.8	94.0	93.6	0-0	1-2
Toledo	91.9	92.3	92.7	92.3	0-0	2-1
Eastern Michigan	89.5	89.9	90.2	89.9	0-0	3-1
Ball St.	87.0	86.5	86.7	86.7	0-0	1-3
Central Michigan	81.1	81.9	81.4	81.4	1-0	2-2
MAC Averages	87.5	87.3	87.8	87.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	106.3	105.3	107.7	106.4	1-0	2-1
Boise St.	106.2	105.5	106.5	106.1	1-0	4-0
Air Force	97.8	99.0	98.7	98.5	0-1	2-1
Wyoming	95.2	97.2	95.6	96.0	0-0	3-1
New Mexico	82.0	85.1	81.0	82.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado St.	80.1	84.0	80.3	81.5	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.7	100.3	100.4	100.1	0-0	1-2
San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.8	98.4	0-1	3-1
Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0	0-0	3-1
Nevada	90.8	92.6	90.4	91.3	0-0	3-1
U N L V	85.1	87.2	85.1	85.8	0-0	1-2
San Jose St.	85.3	87.3	84.6	85.7	0-0	2-1
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.6	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6	1-0	3-1
Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8	0-1	3-1
Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6	0-1	3-1
California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0	1-0	4-0
Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6	0-2	1-3
Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5	0-0	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0	0-1	3-1
U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6	2-0	3-1
Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0	0-1	3-1
Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	1-0	3-1
U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4	1-0	1-3
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.7	126.0	128.3	127.3	1-0	4-0
Florida	121.4	118.5	120.8	120.2	2-0	4-0
Missouri	116.3	113.9	116.6	115.6	1-0	3-1
South Carolina	110.8	109.0	110.4	110.1	0-2	1-3
Kentucky	107.5	106.0	106.0	106.5	0-2	2-2
Tennessee	105.0	104.8	103.2	104.3	0-1	1-3
Vanderbilt	102.6	101.3	101.3	101.7	0-2	0-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	136.1	132.5	137.2	135.2	1-0	4-0
L S U	126.5	123.9	125.5	125.3	1-0	4-0
Auburn	119.2	117.4	118.8	118.5	1-0	4-0
Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	117.0	117.3	0-1	2-2
Mississippi St.	115.2	111.2	114.8	113.7	1-0	3-1
Ole Miss	102.0	101.1	101.1	101.4	1-0	2-2
Arkansas	95.5	96.4	94.7	95.6	0-1	2-2
SEC Averages	114.6	112.7	114.0	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.3	103.7	104.8	104.6	0-0	3-0
Georgia Southern	96.6	95.9	96.0	96.2	0-0	1-2
Troy	95.8	96.1	94.9	95.6	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	86.4	87.8	85.7	86.6	0-0	3-1
Georgia St.	85.8	87.1	84.9	85.9	0-1	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	98.7	98.9	98.5	98.7	0-0	3-1
Arkansas St.	91.0	91.1	90.7	90.9	0-0	2-2
Louisiana-Monroe	87.6	88.3	87.6	87.8	0-0	1-2
Texas St.	83.0	83.9	82.8	83.2	1-0	1-3
South Alabama	73.1	76.2	72.0	73.8	0-0	1-3
SBC Averages	90.3	90.9	89.8	90.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.8
2	BTen	110.6
3	B12	109.1
4	P12	106.9
5	ACC	105.3
6	AAC	96.4
7	MWC	94.0
8	Ind	92.5
9	SUN	90.3
10	MAC	87.5
11	CUSA	86.7

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Boise St.
2	Memphis
3	SMU
4	UAB
5	Navy

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Eastern Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Utah St.]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Troy
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	Nevada
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Hawaii	USC
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	UAB
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Houston
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Western Michigan]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	Indiana
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Kentucky
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	California	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Arizona St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Kansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Boise St.	Auburn
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	[Fresno St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Colorado]	North Carolina St.
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Army]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	[Boston College]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Iowa	Florida
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Mississippi St.	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Purdue	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games This Week

 

 

Memphis vs. Navy: The winner of this game will have a leg up in the AAC West, and with Central Florida losing at Pitt, there is a possibility that the Western Division champion could win the Conference Championship Game and have a shot at the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.  Memphis has never been in a major bowl, although they had a team that should have gotten one in 1963, when the Tigers finished 9-0-1 and tied undefeated Ole Miss.  Navy has been in five major bowls, winning the Sugar Bowl in 1955 and the Orange Bowl in 1958, while losing the Cotton Bowl in 1963, when it was for a shot at the National Championship.

California vs. Arizona St.: Had Arizona State beaten Colorado Saturday, this would have been the top game of the day.  Cal is the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, and even if the Bears were to somehow run the table, they have little chance of making the Playoffs.  Still, this is a key game for the West Coast, as the more Cal continues to win, the better off for the Conference of Champions.

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan: The winner of this game definitely has a path to bowl eligibility.  If CMU wins this game, Jim McElwain will start getting some notice as a potential Power 5 School head coach, because the Chippewas were picked to finish in last place in the MAC West.

Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo: The Bulls didn’t just upset Temple Saturday; they pummeled the Owls into submission.  Miami should have done what Indiana did under Lee Corso many years ago–The Wacky Hoosiers’ coach called time out in 1976 just to take a team picture under the scoreboard when his team led the Buckeyes 7-6.  Miami led Ohio State 5-0 in the first quarter.  Corso’s Hoosiers lost their game 47-7.  Miami lost 76-5.  Still, the Redhawks have a shot at bowl eligibility, but they may have to uspet Buffalo to get there.  This is a perfect sandwich game for Buffalo, as they have Ohio U next week.

Florida St. vs. North Carolina St: Two weeks ago, Willie Taggart was sledding on thin ice at Florida State.  After a win over Louisville, the Seminoles are 2-2, and a win over NC State just might lead the Seminoles on a path to bowl eligibility.  Taggart has always had slow turnarounds.  He did so at Western Kentucky and at South Florida.  He was only at Oregon for a season, and this is just year two in Tallahassee.  If the fans and boosters give him a little more time, he will turn the FSU program back into a top tier program.  Dave Doeren has done a credible job in Raleigh with the Wolfpack, but this is looking like a slight down year for NC St.  The winner of this game will get to bowl eligibility.

Baylor vs. Iowa St.: The winner of this game remains a contender for one of the two Big 12 Championship Game spots.  Baylor has yet to play up to its potential to this point of the season.  They have the talent to win double-digit games this year, but they could lose the next two if they don’t bring their “A-game” to this week’s and next week’s games.  Iowa St. took their frustrations out on a Louisiana-Monroe team that isn’t as bad as the 72-20 loss indicates.  This game should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.  

Purdue vs. Minnesota: The winner of this game stays in contention for a bowl game.  If Minnesota wins on the road, then the Gophers will have a chance to start the season 8-0 before Penn State comes to Minneapolis.  Purdue must win this game, or the Boilermakers will not have a path to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana: Why do we call this a key game?  These two teams are stronger than you realize.  The Ragin’ Cajuns just trounced Ohio in Athens, while Georgia Southern is hiding in ambush at 1-2 with losses to undefeated Minnesota and unbelievable LSU.  The Eagles had an extra week to prepare for this game, while UL may be looking forward to their game with Appy State the following week.  The winner of this game will most definitely play a 13th game and maybe even a 14th game.

Utah vs. Washington St.: The loser of this game will have a two-game losing streak, after the two teams lost to the Los Angeles teams.  Utah’s loss at USC was surprising but not shocking.  If you didn’t stay up and watch the Washington State-UCLA game, you might not believe that Washington State scored 63 points.  Quarterback Anthony Gordon threw for 570 yards and nine touchdowns. However, it wasn’t good enough.  UCLA scored 67 points and came from 25 points down to pull off one of the most incredible upsets of the season.  The Bruins had scored 14 points in each of their first three games.  The winner of this game stays in contention for their division title, while the loser is looking at a December bowl.

Nevada vs. Hawaii: This game is for first place in the MAC West.  Hawaii usually plays much better at home than on the road, and playing in Reno gives Nevada a larger than normal home field advantage.  Nevada still has road games with Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, and Fresno State.  This is a must win game for the Wolf Pack if they are to make it to the MAC Championship Game.  A Rainbow Warrior win in this game, and it could be lights out for the rest of the division.

Oklahoma St. vs. Kansas St.: Chris Klieman came to the Little Apple having won back to back FCS National Championships at North Dakota State.  He has a personal winning streak of 24 games.  Kansas State had the week off after winning at Mississippi State, and now they entertain the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough loss at Texas.  If KSU wins this game in Stillwater, they then play three consecutive home games against three top contenders.  If Okie St. wins, then they stay in contention for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Auburn vs. Mississippi St.: It’s hard to think about a division game with a potential New Years’s Day Bowl participant as a potential sandwich game, but Auburn faces the Bulldogs between road games against Texas A&M and Florida.  This is the perfect chance for Mississippi State to pull off a big upset.  Auburn may not have enough offensive firepower to exploit State’s vulnerabilities on defense.  Of course, the Tiger defensive line is strong enough to hold the Bullies to less than 17 points, and Auburn will score 20 or more in this game.

Nebraska vs. Ohio St.: The last time the Buckeyes came to Lincoln, Nebraska suffered one of its most devastating home losses ever, losing 56-14.  Last year in Columbus, Nebraska came very close to pulling off the big upset.  Can the Cornhuskers have a shot in this game?  Last year’s Ohio State team was struggling a little bit when Nebraska played at the Horseshoe.  The Ohio State offense should make this game look more like the 2017 game in Lincoln.

Washington vs. USC: If the Trojans can leave Seattle with a win this weekend, Clay Helton might be able to begin to think about renewing his satellite TV subscription at his SoCal home for 2020.  A loss might put UW two games behind Cal, which would almost eliminate the Huskies from the North Division title race.  So, this is a must-win game for UW.

Note: Some of you (several somes of you) have contacted us through our other site wanting to know more information about the “Sharps” that are friends of the PiRate Ratings.  In Friday’s post here, we gave out a 5-game money line parlay with +250 odds that we inferred based on information given to us by one of our friends in Nevada.

So, the parlay won in theory.  If you did not heed our warning and actually played this one, you too won big on Saturday.

Unfortunately, this will not be a recurring thing here.  We cannot reveal the information we receive from Vegas, because the Sharps playing these parlays also have a service where they charge for their advice.  The specific Sharp that gave us this pick has asked not to be identified, and we are fine with that.  After all, we do not condone actual betting of money on sporting events.  Whether this parlay won or not, we were guaranteed not to win or lose, since we did not play it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	September 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Houston	7.1	6.3	4.7