PiRate Picks–September 29-October 1, 2022

If you follow this weekly feature, then you must realize at this point in the season that the picks made here have put us in an untenable position. Through four full weeks and one partial fifth week in the college football season, we have issued 21 selections. 16 of them have won, and five of them have been at odds exceeding even money. Our imaginary $1,000 starting account has ballooned to $1,906.19 after going 3-0 last week with two of those three wins bringing better than +130 parlay payouts. That 16-5 record is even more ridiculous when you consider that we had one week where we were 1-4. In all the other weeks, our pretend wagering selections are 15-1! Meanwhile, we made comments in two of those weeks that we did not particularly like the slate of games available for those weeks. All this should tell you that if a situation is obviously untenable, don’t make any large gambles on the situation continuing to be as successful or even successful at all in the future. If 76.2% winners were the norm, and the wagers were real, we would be banned from wagering at most of the books and definitely greatly limited in the amount we could wager at those that did not ban us. Only a small minority of the big-time players ever get limited or banned. That’s why in all honesty, the selections going forward are almost sure to disappoint until the percentages normalize. Think of our selections being like the Cleveland Indians beginning the 1966 baseball season at 14-1 and then 27-10 near the completion of the first quarter of the season. The Indians held a substantial lead over Baltimore, but Leon Wagner was not Frank Robinson. Robby would go on to win the Triple Crown, and the Orioles would pass Cleveland with ease and go on to win the AL pennant in a breeze. The PiRate Ratings are Cleveland. Maybe, our 1954 is out there some day, but there is no reason to believe that it is this year.

Now, that we have a clear conscience, here are our picks for this week. Remember: we never wager real money on these selections, and we suggest you follow this lead. If you are a professional wagering maven, then we know you only read this weekly feature as supplemental information for your other research.

Selection #1: Iowa +10 1/2 vs. Michigan

This play is all about the number. At 9 1/2, we wouldn’t play it. We probably wouldn’t play it at 13 1/2 either. Michigan is clearly better than Iowa, but can they win by double digits in Iowa City when the Hawkeyes’ offense is starting to show signs of respectability? Iowa might be able to control the ball for 32 or more minutes in this game, and Michigan has played one above average team at home with no road games. At 10 1/2, we get 39% of the spreads most likely for a game to have, including nine of the top 15 spreads in college football. Our internal (not the PiRate Ratings) quick compare system shows this game to be a maximum of 8 points in Michigan’s favor and only about a 65% chance that the Maize and Blue will win the game by any amount. We see this being a 27-20 game for the Wolverines, and it wouldn’t be a big shock if Iowa pulled off the upset.

Selection #2: Penn State & Northwestern Under 52 1/2

James Franklin has this team believing in itself, and we have little doubt that the Nittany Lions will win this game with relative ease, but we also believe the first quarter and some of the second quarter of this game will be played conservatively as Penn State tries some new wrinkles. Northwestern’s history of being good in even-numbered years and rebuilding in odd-numbered years may have come to an end, as the Wildcats look no better than they were last year, and their win over Nebraska isn’t worth much. The NU offense isn’t likely to keep the scoreboard operator busy. We think this could be a 34-10 game, maybe a 38-7 game.

Selection #3: UNLV and New Mexico Over 42 1/2

This was a late addition to our selections this week, as the total dropped by a full point on Wednesday, and we think it has been moved too much. There are some middling plays going on with this game. At 43 1/2, it was too close to our projection of 28-17 and 45 points. Usually, we like a game to differ by three points or more in the total, but when it’s this low, 2 1/2 points are enough to make a play. The only concern is that the Lobos are scoring points of fewer than normal total yards gained. However, UNLV’s offense is better than New Mexico’s defense, and we also think there is a chance that the Rebels could score more then 28 points in this game.

Selection #4: Minnesota & Purdue Over 51 1/2

If you follow this weekly feature for any amount of time, you will probably see a trend toward playing the Under on more totals than the Over, but this week, it is an even split. We respect Minnesota’s excellent start to the season, but their defense has yet to be tested by a Power 5 competent offense, as it will this week. This isn’t Drew Brees bringing the Spoilermakers to The Cities, but this also isn’t the Bobby Bell Gophers of 1960 and 1961. Our internal rating shows PU will top 24 points in this game, but their lack of a power running game might prevent the Boilermakers from scoring the one extra TD needed to win this game. Minnesota probably will top 30 points. At 34-27, that’s 9 1/2 more points than needed to satisfy this play.

Selection #5: Oklahoma & TCU Under 68 1/2

This was actually the one total that jumped off the page when we first saw it. Oklahoma is coming off an upset loss to Kansas State where they gave up more than 40 points. TCU is averaging 46.3 points per game but hasn’t played a real defense yet. We suspect that defensive-oriented Sooner coach Brent Venables will concentrate his efforts this week on giving his defense more confidence by playing this game a little more conservatively. Meanwhile, TCU will experience some difficulty trying to consistently move the ball with short passing plays. We think the total for this game will be 60 or less. A final score of 34-21 is expected.

Selection #6: Money Line Parlay @ +176.22

Kent State over Ohio U

Wyoming over San Jose St.

The key game for us this week is the Wyoming-San Jose State game in Laramie. We believe the wrong team is favored. The Cowboys have been a different team at home in altitude as opposed to the road, and San Jose State is coming into a weather situation they have not had a chance to prepare for in the Bay Area. This game could be played in a windy rainstorm, possibly a thunderstorm, with a chance that it could be delayed one or more times. Wyoming has an advantage if the running game must be used more in the quarters where the wind is in the face of the offense. We are looking for Wyoming to win this one outright by 5 to 10 points.

We didn’t want to play Wyoming straight up for 11-10 odds, so we looked to a coupling game that would ramp it up to better than +130, and we found it in the Kent State-Ohio game. The Golden Flashes are at least 10 points better than the Bobcats, but the Money Line was only -450, and combining it with the underdog selection, it makes this parlay an attractive +176.22.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay @ +157.22

Kansas State over Texas Tech

North Carolina over Virginia Tech

Western Kentucky over Troy

Both teams won big games last week in the Kansas State-Texas Tech match-up. But, the Red Raiders beat their most hated rival. TTU rarely gets the respect in the Lone Star State by the fans of the Longhorns. At the same time, Kansas State has used a big win over a ranked opponent to propel themselves to bigger and better things. Add in the factor that our internal rating shows the Wildcats to be nine points better, and this is an attractive part of a parlay for us.

Neither North Carolina nor Virginia Tech are going to go on big runs to finish with fat won-loss records this year. In fact, we think the Hokies are looking at 5-7 or even 4-8, while the Tar Heels are maybe looking at 7-5 and a minor bowl game. We are looking at a 35-28 win for Mack Brown’s squad.

In Bowling Green, Kentucky, the Hilltoppers have been known as a basketball school with a neat mascot, but their football team should not be overlooked this year. Following a 73-0 win over possibly the worst FBS team in Florida International, they step up to play another under-the-radar team in Troy. This used to be a fierce rivlary game when both were Sun Belt Conference members, and we expect a close, hard-fought game with a lot of offensive action. Our selection of WKU here comes about due to an old theorem of ours from the 1970s that states that when a team easily slaughters a weaker team in a home game one week and then plays at home again the following week, they tend to continue to play near the best of their abilities. We think WKU wins this close game, maybe by just a field goal to five points.

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 22-24, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	West Virginia	-2.5	-1.5	-3.1
Georgia St.	Coastal Carolina	6.4	4.1	6.5
Syracuse	Virginia	10.4	9.4	11.3
Air Force	Nevada	19.1	17.1	20.3
UTEP	Boise St.	-18.4	-17.8	-19.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	-2.6	-1.3	-1.5
Kentucky	Northern Illinois	20.1	20.6	21.6
South Carolina	Charlotte	30.0	28.1	29.9
Temple	Massachusetts	9.2	11.2	9.4
Georgia	Kent St.	50.2	46.4	51.5
North Carolina	Notre Dame	-1.3	0.8	-1.4
Miami (Fla.)	Middle Tennessee	34.3	31.9	32.6
Michigan	Maryland	18.0	16.6	18.3
North Carolina St.	Connecticut	42.6	40.7	45.5
Penn St.	Central Michigan	29.7	27.6	26.7
Central Florida	Georgia Tech	17.1	18.1	19.9
Louisville	South Florida	16.9	16.9	16.6
Michigan St.	Minnesota	2.7	2.2	0.5
Wake Forest	Clemson	-11.2	-11.5	-12.2
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	15.2	13.8	16.7
Liberty	Akron	24.0	25.3	27.3
Florida St.	Boston College	17.1	14.9	17.7
Tennessee	Florida	15.6	14.4	16.1
Cincinnati	Indiana	13.2	13.3	17.7
East Carolina	Navy	16.2	16.9	19.2
Georgia Southern	Ball St.	9.9	8.4	10.4
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	9.5	7.6	7.7
Appalachian St.	James Madison	8.6	8.4	6.1
Rutgers	Iowa	-9.2	-8.5	-10.3
Kansas	Duke	17.5	13.2	17.8
Northwestern	Miami (O)	8.6	7.1	3.9
Old Dominion	Arkansas St.	9.8	8.4	9.0
Colorado	UCLA	-12.0	-13.9	-14.7
BYU	Wyoming	28.7	24.5	27.2
New Mexico St.	Hawaii	5.1	5.7	3.8
Arizona St.	Utah	-11.5	-10.7	-12.5
Oregon St.	USC	1.6	0.5	1.5
San Diego St.	Toledo	4.5	3.2	3.2
Washington St.	Oregon	-7.7	-6.3	-6.1
California	Arizona	4.8	5.0	6.2
Washington	Stanford	8.0	11.7	11.3
Troy	Marshall	-1.5	-2.2	-0.4
South Alabama	Louisiana Tech	11.0	10.0	14.0
Mississippi St.	Bowling Green	30.3	29.7	29.4
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	13.4	14.1	14.6
Ole Miss	Tulsa	23.9	22.7	22.5
Alabama	Vanderbilt	37.1	35.0	39.9
SMU	TCU	-5.7	-4.9	-3.9
Texas Tech	Texas	-2.7	-3.3	-1.3
UL-Monroe	Louisiana	-9.6	-9.9	-12.7
Texas A&M (n)	Arkansas	-4.6	-1.7	-3.6
Houston	Rice	20.5	20.1	21.8
Memphis	North Texas	16.7	18.1	15.7
Tulane	Southern Miss.	17.4	15.9	16.2
Auburn	Missouri	8.5	6.7	8.3
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	35.0	32.1	39.3
Utah St.	UNLV	1.0	3.4	1.7
Purdue	Florida Atlantic	31.5	28.9	29.4
LSU	New Mexico	33.8	32.5	33.9
San Jose St.	Western Michigan	-1.7	-2.4	-1.5

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Illinois	Chattanooga	23.8
Ohio	Fordham	16.7
Texas St.	Houston Baptist	26.4
Pittsburgh	Rhode Island	32.0
Colorado St.	Sacramento St.	-3.0
UTSA	Texas Southern	37.2

Teams With Byes

Army

Fresno St.

Nebraska

Oklahoma St.

UAB

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	135.3
2	Alabama	129.5
3	Ohio St.	128.8
4	Michigan	124.6
5	Oklahoma	120.7
6	Clemson	119.7
7	Tennessee	118.2
8	Penn St.	118.2
9	NC State	117.1
10	Wisconsin	116.6
11	Oklahoma St.	116.5
12	Minnesota	116.4
13	Utah	116.3
14	Ole Miss	115.8
15	Purdue	115.2
16	Michigan St.	115.2
17	Arkansas	115.1
18	L S U	114.9
19	Miami (Fla.)	114.8
20	Baylor	114.6
21	Pittsburgh	114.3
22	Mississippi St.	113.5
23	Kentucky	113.4
24	Oregon	113.0
25	Florida St.	112.5
26	Texas	112.5
27	Iowa	112.4
28	Cincinnati	112.2
29	Texas A&M	111.8
30	U S C	111.6
31	Notre Dame	111.3
32	BYU	111.0
33	T C U	110.7
34	Maryland	110.0
35	Oregon St.	109.8
36	Iowa St.	109.7
37	Kansas St.	109.6
38	Washington	108.7
39	Syracuse	108.3
40	Louisville	108.1
41	U C L A	107.7
42	North Carolina	107.7
43	Texas Tech	107.5
44	South Carolina	107.0
45	UCF	106.6
46	Auburn	106.2
47	Florida	105.9
48	Wake Forest	105.6
49	Illinois	105.5
50	West Virginia	104.5
51	SMU	104.4
52	Boise St.	104.2
53	Washington St.	103.3
54	Kansas	102.8
55	Tulane	102.7
56	Houston	102.4
57	Air Force	102.3
58	Arizona St.	101.8
59	Fresno St.	101.7
60	East Carolina	101.7
61	Stanford	101.4
62	Missouri	101.4
63	Virginia	100.9
64	Nebraska	100.3
65	Rutgers	100.1
66	Indiana	99.9
67	Appalachian St.	99.7
68	Virginia Tech	99.6
69	U A B	98.9
70	Boston College	98.9
71	California	98.7
72	W. Kentucky	98.5
73	Army	98.4
74	Memphis	98.3
75	Liberty	98.2
76	U T S A	97.1
77	Georgia St.	96.8
78	Northwestern	96.6
79	Arizona	96.3
80	Marshall	95.8
81	Tulsa	95.8
82	N. Illinois	95.6
83	San Diego St.	95.2
84	Vanderbilt	95.2
85	James Madison	95.0
86	Louisiana	94.8
87	Toledo	94.5
88	USF	94.3
89	Coastal Carolina	93.6
90	Western Mich.	93.2
91	Central Mich.	93.2
92	Miami (Ohio)	92.5
93	Troy	92.0
94	South Alabama	91.4
95	Georgia Tech	91.2
96	Colorado	91.2
97	U N L V	91.2
98	Old Dominion	90.8
99	Ga. Southern	90.3
100	Utah St.	90.2
101	Duke	89.6
102	Kent St.	89.0
103	Eastern Mich.	88.8
104	San Jose St.	88.3
105	Florida Atlantic	88.3
106	Southern Miss.	88.1
107	Navy	87.2
108	Wyoming	87.2
109	Bowling Green	86.7
110	Nevada	86.5
111	Ohio	85.4
112	Middle Tennessee	84.8
113	Arkansas St.	84.8
114	New Mexico	84.6
115	Colorado St.	84.1
116	North Texas	83.9
117	Ball St.	83.7
118	Buffalo	83.5
119	U T E P	83.2
120	Rice	82.6
121	Louisiana Tech	82.2
122	UL-Monroe	82.0
123	Texas St.	80.9
124	Charlotte	80.2
125	Temple	79.6
126	Connecticut	77.2
127	Akron	75.1
128	New Mexico St.	73.9
129	Hawaii	72.5
130	Massachusetts	72.2
131	Florida Int’l.	65.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.8	111.2	113.5	112.2
UCF	106.1	106.8	106.8	106.6
SMU	104.5	103.8	104.9	104.4
Tulane	103.1	102.4	102.5	102.7
Houston	102.5	101.7	103.1	102.4
East Carolina	101.4	101.1	102.5	101.7
Memphis	98.2	98.6	98.0	98.3
Tulsa	96.0	95.4	96.0	95.8
USF	95.0	93.8	94.1	94.3
Navy	88.2	87.2	86.3	87.2
Temple	79.6	81.9	77.3	79.6
AAC	98.8	98.5	98.6	98.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.6	119.5	120.1	119.7
NC State	117.4	116.4	117.5	117.1
Florida St.	112.8	112.2	112.4	112.5
Syracuse	109.1	108.0	107.9	108.3
Louisville	108.9	107.7	107.7	108.1
Wake Forest	105.9	105.5	105.4	105.6
Boston College	98.7	100.3	97.7	98.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	115.3	114.1	114.9	114.8
Pittsburgh	115.2	114.1	113.7	114.3
North Carolina	107.6	107.9	107.6	107.7
Virginia	101.6	101.6	99.6	100.9
Virginia Tech	100.1	100.6	98.0	99.6
Georgia Tech	92.1	91.7	89.9	91.2
Duke	89.6	92.2	87.0	89.6
ACC	106.7	106.5	105.7	106.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.9	120.1	121.1	120.7
Oklahoma St.	117.1	115.6	116.9	116.5
Baylor	115.2	114.0	114.5	114.6
Texas	113.1	112.2	112.1	112.5
T C U	111.7	110.2	110.4	110.7
Iowa St.	109.5	109.7	110.0	109.7
Kansas St.	110.5	109.0	109.4	109.6
Texas Tech	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
West Virginia	105.1	104.7	103.6	104.5
Kansas	104.2	102.4	101.8	102.8
Big 12	111.5	110.4	110.8	110.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	129.2	127.5	129.9	128.8
Michigan	125.0	123.8	125.0	124.6
Penn St.	118.3	118.2	118.1	118.2
Michigan St.	116.2	115.1	114.4	115.2
Maryland	110.1	110.1	109.8	110.0
Rutgers	101.3	100.7	98.3	100.1
Indiana	101.1	100.4	98.3	99.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	117.0	116.6	116.2	116.6
Minnesota	116.5	115.9	116.9	116.4
Purdue	116.3	115.1	114.2	115.2
Iowa	113.5	112.2	111.6	112.4
Illinois	105.9	106.5	104.2	105.5
Nebraska	100.9	100.6	99.5	100.3
Northwestern	96.9	98.0	94.8	96.6
Big Ten	112.0	111.5	110.8	111.4
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.3	98.5	99.9	98.9
W. Kentucky	97.7	97.6	100.2	98.5
U T S A	97.6	96.2	97.5	97.1
Florida Atlantic	87.8	89.2	87.8	88.3
Middle Tennessee	84.0	85.2	85.3	84.8
North Texas	84.0	83.0	84.8	83.9
U T E P	83.4	83.0	83.1	83.2
Rice	83.0	82.6	82.3	82.6
Louisiana Tech	82.1	83.6	80.9	82.2
Charlotte	79.9	80.9	79.7	80.2
Florida Int’l.	65.2	68.0	63.4	65.5
CUSA	85.7	86.2	85.9	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	111.9	110.1	112.0	111.3
BYU	111.6	109.8	111.5	111.0
Army	98.2	98.6	98.5	98.4
Liberty	96.8	98.6	99.1	98.2
Connecticut	77.8	78.7	75.1	77.2
New Mexico St.	73.5	75.3	72.8	73.9
Massachusetts	72.9	73.3	70.4	72.2
Independents	91.8	92.1	91.3	91.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	90.8	93.4	93.4	92.5
Kent St.	88.1	90.4	88.4	89.0
Bowling Green	87.2	86.2	86.6	86.7
Ohio	84.2	86.3	85.6	85.4
Buffalo	82.1	84.6	84.0	83.5
Akron	75.3	75.8	74.3	75.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	95.5	95.8	95.5	95.6
Toledo	93.7	94.7	95.2	94.5
Western Mich.	92.6	93.6	93.5	93.2
Central Mich.	91.6	93.5	94.4	93.2
Eastern Mich.	88.6	89.1	88.6	88.8
Ball St.	83.4	84.5	83.4	83.7
MAC	87.8	89.0	88.6	88.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	103.3	104.9	104.2
Air Force	101.9	101.9	103.2	102.3
Utah St.	89.9	90.1	90.6	90.2
Wyoming	85.9	88.3	87.3	87.2
New Mexico	84.7	85.2	83.8	84.6
Colorado St.	83.9	84.7	83.9	84.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	101.6	100.9	102.6	101.7
San Diego St.	95.2	94.9	95.4	95.2
U N L V	91.8	89.7	91.9	91.2
San Jose St.	87.8	88.2	89.0	88.3
Nevada	85.9	87.8	85.9	86.5
Hawaii	71.9	73.2	72.6	72.5
MWC	90.4	90.7	90.9	90.7
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.2	115.1	117.8	116.3
Oregon	113.4	112.8	112.8	113.0
U S C	111.1	111.7	112.1	111.6
Oregon St.	109.7	109.2	110.6	109.8
Washington	107.9	108.9	109.2	108.7
U C L A	107.3	107.2	108.7	107.7
Washington St.	102.7	103.4	103.7	103.3
Arizona St.	101.6	101.4	102.3	101.8
Stanford	102.9	100.3	100.9	101.4
California	98.2	98.3	99.5	98.7
Arizona	96.4	96.3	96.3	96.3
Colorado	92.2	90.3	91.0	91.2
Pac-12	105.0	104.6	105.4	105.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	135.3	133.8	136.9	135.3
Tennessee	118.0	118.1	118.6	118.2
Kentucky	112.6	113.4	114.1	113.4
South Carolina	107.5	106.5	107.1	107.0
Florida	105.3	106.8	105.5	105.9
Missouri	101.6	102.0	100.4	101.4
Vanderbilt	95.3	96.3	93.8	95.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.4	128.4	130.7	129.5
Ole Miss	116.9	115.1	115.5	115.8
Arkansas	115.6	113.8	116.0	115.1
L S U	115.5	114.6	114.7	114.9
Mississippi St.	114.5	112.9	113.1	113.5
Texas A&M	111.0	112.1	112.4	111.8
Auburn	107.2	105.7	105.7	106.2
SEC	113.3	112.8	113.2	113.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	98.3	100.0	100.7	99.7
Georgia St.	96.3	95.5	98.5	96.8
Marshall	95.3	96.4	95.7	95.8
James Madison	92.7	94.6	97.6	95.0
Coastal Carolina	92.4	94.0	94.5	93.6
Old Dominion	90.8	90.9	90.8	90.8
Ga. Southern	90.3	89.8	90.8	90.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	93.9	94.2	96.1	94.8
Troy	91.3	91.7	92.9	92.0
South Alabama	90.6	91.1	92.4	91.4
Southern Miss.	87.7	88.4	88.3	88.1
Arkansas St.	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.4	81.4	82.0
Texas St.	80.3	81.4	81.0	80.9
Sun Belt	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.4
3	Big 12	110.9
4	Atlantic Coast	106.3
5	Pac-12	105.0
6	American Athletic	98.6
7	Independents	91.7
8	Sun Belt	91.1
9	Mountain West	90.7
10	Mid-American	88.4
11	Conference USA	85.9

Playoff Projections

1.) Georgia

2.) Ohio St.

3.) Alabama

4.) Oklahoma

Most Likely Top Group of 5 Team

For Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Game

1.) Coastal Carolina

2.) Cincinnati

3.) Appalachian St.

4.) Tulane

PiRate Picks For September 16-17, 2022

That broken clock finally failed to show the correct time on the PiRate Ship. Last week, our five picks came in at 1-4, dropping our profit for the season to $1,211.77 ($1,311.77 left in the imaginary account).

We’re back to where we normally are in September. Usually, when we have a bad week, our saving grace in the past has been Money Line Parlays playing at +140 or higher odds. We had a tough time finding one really good parlay this week. While we like odds in the range of +140 to +180, we couldn’t find the right number of games to make this range work out. We also don’t like to play more than three games in a parlay, so it came down to going with 3 at more than +200 or go to five bigger favorites to get to +155 and change.

We also tend to like to play an odd number of games to eliminate the .500 record that results in a small loss. Of course, when one of those selections is a parlay that pays different than the straight 11-10 odds, a .500 record could be a winning week if one of those wins is the parlay.

Our selections this week are all about the numbers more than the actual teams playing. Without further adieu, here are our selections for the week. Remember: We never wager real money on our picks, and we highly suggest that you follow our lead.

Selection 1: Wyoming +14 1/2 vs. Air Force

This is a nice rivalry game, and the last time the margin of this game exceeded 14 points was 2013. Wyoming’s schedule has been considerably stronger than Air Force’s, as Illinois and Tulsa are both stronger than Colorado. Craig Bohl teams tend to be stronger against the run than the pass, so this looks like a good play to be on the side where the top four margins by frequency come with it (3, 7, 10, and 14 points represent the final margin in 1/4 of all college football games).

Selection #2: Wyoming & Air Force Under 46 1/2

For the same reasons above, this game appeals to us for the total. We think this game is more like a 20-17 game, which falls well under 46 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Maryland -2 1/2 vs. SMU

The PiRates really prefer to go with underdogs that we believe should be favorites, but there were no short ‘dogs this week that really jumped off the page. We believe that Maryland is better than a touchdown stronger than SMU. Game outcomes of 1 and 2 points occur just 5.9% of the time, and that includes 5.9% of the time that the favorite and the underdog win by 1 or 2.

Selection #4: Northern Illinois -2 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

Ditto the game above. Except, Vanderbilt exposed itself by showing its real weakness last week against Wake Forest. The Huskies were somewhat shocked by Tulsa in week one, but they should rebound in week two.

Selection #5: Nebraska and Oklahoma Under 66 1/2

What do you get when you combine a defensive genius head coach coaching in his third ever game against a big rival with a coach making his debut when a few days ago, he was an assistant coach? Usually, you get a hard-fought game that tends to be a little more defense-oriented. The Cornhuskers should play their best game of the season for interim coach Mickey Joseph, while the Sooners may play it a bit more conservatively. An OU win similar to last year’s game, which ended with 39 total points scored.

Selection #6: California and Notre Dame Over 40 1/2

Notre Dame last started a season 0-3 in 2007. Before Irish fans jump out of buildings, they were 0-2 in 2011 with a loss to a weak South Florida team and proceeded to win eight of their next nine games. Cal isn’t the best defensive team in the land, even though the Bears are only giving up 13.5 points per game so far. UC-Davis and UNLV are not offensive juggernauts.

If this game ends 21-20, it beats the total by a half-point. Notre Dame and Marshall combined for 47 points, and Cal’s offense is better than Marshall’s.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay at +204.42

Penn State over Auburn

Texas A&M over Miami (Fla.)

North Carolina St. over Texas Tech

Auburn barely beat a mediocre San Jose State team last week. A weaker Penn State team than this year’s squad defeated a stronger Auburn team than this year’s squad last year.

If Texas A&M loses again this week, Jimbo Fisher might be sharing a beer with Scott Frost the following Saturday somewhere outside of a football stadium.

Texas Tech’s win over Houston is getting a lot more accolades than it probably should have gotten. N.C. State’s narrow escape over East Carolina probably got too much as well. This is still a Wolf Pack team capable of winning the ACC Title.

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 16-17, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	Florida St.	-0.5	-1.1	-0.9
Wyoming	Air Force	-17.9	-15.3	-18.2
Miami (O)	Cincinnati	-18.8	-15.0	-17.7
Michigan	Connecticut	48.7	45.9	51.5
Syracuse	Purdue	-5.1	-4.9	-4.3
Temple	Rutgers	-22.8	-19.7	-22.5
Baylor	Texas St.	37.5	35.2	36.0
Indiana	Western Kentucky	6.6	6.2	0.9
South Carolina	Georgia	-20.7	-19.7	-22.6
Nebraska	Oklahoma	-11.5	-10.6	-12.9
Coastal Carolina	Buffalo	13.5	12.4	14.2
Iowa St.	Ohio	28.0	25.4	26.3
New Mexico	UTEP	0.7	1.5	-0.5
Virginia	Old Dominion	13.9	14.0	11.9
UCLA	South Alabama	22.1	21.5	22.2
Notre Dame	California	18.1	16.1	17.2
UNLV	North Texas	4.8	3.4	3.5
Kansas St.	Tulane	15.0	14.2	14.7
Wisconsin	New Mexico St.	43.9	41.0	43.3
Auburn	Penn St.	-2.8	-4.2	-3.6
Northern Illinois	Vanderbilt	5.5	4.8	7.8
Minnesota	Colorado	23.5	24.8	25.1
Georgia Tech	Ole Miss	-16.4	-14.6	-16.8
Oregon	BYU	0.8	2.1	-0.1
UAB	Georgia Southern	10.2	10.8	11.2
Appalachian St.	Troy	10.1	11.8	11.6
Houston	Kansas	6.4	8.0	10.7
Alabama	UL-Monroe	49.5	48.0	51.7
Washington St.	Colorado St.	19.2	19.0	19.8
Wake Forest	Liberty	14.6	12.1	11.4
Bowling Green	Marshall	-6.3	-8.9	-7.8
LSU	Mississippi St.	1.2	2.0	1.4
Ohio St.	Toledo	34.5	31.1	33.1
Tennessee	Akron	43.5	42.8	44.5
Georgia St.	Charlotte	23.6	21.6	26.8
North Carolina St.	Texas Tech	12.5	13.0	12.2
Memphis	Arkansas St.	16.6	15.5	15.8
Florida Atlantic	Central Florida	-13.9	-12.8	-14.2
Florida	South Florida	13.9	17.3	15.5
Maryland	SMU	8.8	9.7	8.0
Washington	Michigan St.	-10.1	-7.8	-6.8
Western Michigan	Pittsburgh	-20.1	-17.6	-16.9
Iowa	Nevada	31.1	27.4	28.9
Rice	Lousiana	-13.9	-15.0	-17.6
Texas	UTSA	18.3	18.7	17.2
Clemson	Louisiana Tech	41.9	40.3	44.2
Texas A&M	Miami (Fla.)	-2.6	0.1	-1.0
Utah	San Diego St.	23.6	22.3	25.0
USC	Fresno St.	9.1	10.4	8.7
Arizona St.	Eastern Michigan	21.7	20.9	23.0

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Arizona	North Dakota St.	3.3
Arkansas	Missouri St.	31.3
Army	Villanova	11.8
Ball St.	Murray St.	21.6
Boise St.	UT-Martin	24.3
Boston College	Maine	27.1
Central Michigan	Bucknell	37.3
Duke	North Carolina A&T	25.4
East Carolina	Campbell	30.4
Hawaii	Duquesne	12.0
Kent St.	Long Island	28.8
Kentucky	Youngstown St.	33.7
Massachusetts	Stony Brook	-1.0
Middle Tennessee	Tennessee St.	24.6
Missouri	Abilene Christian	28.4
Northwestern	Southern Illinois	18.6
Oklahoma St.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	54.3
Oregon St.	Montana St.	18.3
Southern Miss.	Northwestern St.	25.4
Tulsa	Jacksonville St.	20.5
Virginia Tech	Wofford	31.2
West Virginia	Towson St.	32.6

Teams With Bye Weeks

Navy

North Carolina

TCU

Illinois

Florida Int’l.

Utah St.

San Jose St.

Stanford

James Madison

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	133.2
2	Alabama	129.1
3	Ohio St.	126.6
4	Michigan	124.0
5	Clemson	120.5
6	Oklahoma	118.5
7	Michigan St.	117.6
8	NC State	117.1
9	Tennessee	117.0
10	Oklahoma St.	116.4
11	Utah	116.1
12	Arkansas	115.8
13	Purdue	115.7
14	Penn St.	115.6
15	Miami (Fla.)	115.5
16	Wisconsin	115.3
17	Mississippi St.	114.9
18	Baylor	114.6
19	Minnesota	114.5
20	Pittsburgh	114.1
21	Kentucky	113.6
22	L S U	113.5
23	BYU	113.0
24	Ole Miss	113.0
25	Iowa	112.5
26	Texas	112.3
27	Notre Dame	112.2
28	Florida St.	112.2
29	Kansas St.	112.0
30	Cincinnati	111.9
31	Texas A&M	111.4
32	Oregon	111.0
33	T C U	110.4
34	Maryland	110.1
35	U S C	109.9
36	U C L A	109.4
37	Iowa St.	109.3
38	South Carolina	109.2
39	Auburn	109.1
40	Oregon St.	108.6
41	Louisville	108.3
42	Syracuse	107.9
43	Texas Tech	107.5
44	North Carolina	107.4
45	Florida	107.0
46	Wake Forest	106.8
47	Washington	106.3
48	UCF	105.2
49	Illinois	105.2
50	Arizona St.	105.1
51	Houston	105.0
52	Air Force	104.6
53	SMU	104.3
54	Boise St.	104.1
55	Nebraska	103.8
56	West Virginia	103.5
57	Fresno St.	103.5
58	Missouri	102.0
59	Rutgers	101.9
60	Washington St.	101.9
61	Virginia	101.7
62	East Carolina	101.4
63	Stanford	101.1
64	Indiana	100.4
65	Tulane	100.3
66	Appalachian St.	100.2
67	Virginia Tech	100.0
68	Kansas	99.7
69	Georgia St.	99.5
70	Boston College	99.2
71	Northwestern	98.9
72	U A B	98.7
73	Memphis	98.5
74	W. Kentucky	98.3
75	California	98.1
76	Louisiana	98.0
77	U T S A	97.3
78	Army	97.2
79	N. Illinois	97.1
80	Toledo	96.7
81	Liberty	96.6
82	Arizona	96.3
83	Marshall	96.3
84	San Diego St.	95.5
85	Tulsa	94.9
86	James Madison	94.8
87	Georgia Tech	94.0
88	Coastal Carolina	93.8
89	Vanderbilt	93.6
90	USF	93.4
91	Western Mich.	93.4
92	Colorado	93.1
93	Central Mich.	93.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	92.8
95	Troy	91.5
96	Ga. Southern	90.5
97	South Alabama	90.4
98	Old Dominion	90.4
99	Utah St.	90.0
100	Florida Atlantic	89.6
101	Duke	89.4
102	U N L V	88.4
103	Kent St.	88.3
104	San Jose St.	88.1
105	Navy	87.0
106	North Texas	87.0
107	Southern Miss.	86.6
108	Nevada	86.4
109	Eastern Mich.	86.2
110	Bowling Green	86.2
111	Ohio	85.8
112	Colorado St.	85.5
113	U T E P	85.1
114	Wyoming	84.9
115	Arkansas St.	84.5
116	Middle Tennessee	84.0
117	Ball St.	83.4
118	Buffalo	83.4
119	New Mexico	83.2
120	UL-Monroe	82.4
121	Louisiana Tech	81.4
122	Texas St.	80.9
123	Rice	79.9
124	Connecticut	78.3
125	Temple	78.3
126	Charlotte	78.0
127	Akron	76.4
128	New Mexico St.	75.5
129	Hawaii	72.6
130	Massachusetts	71.5
131	Florida Int’l.	65.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.7	110.8	113.3	111.9
UCF	104.9	105.4	105.4	105.2
Houston	104.8	104.3	106.0	105.0
SMU	104.4	103.6	104.8	104.3
East Carolina	101.1	100.8	102.2	101.4
Tulane	100.8	100.1	100.1	100.3
Memphis	98.4	98.8	98.3	98.5
Tulsa	95.1	94.5	95.1	94.9
USF	94.4	92.8	93.2	93.4
Navy	88.0	87.0	86.1	87.0
Temple	78.3	80.7	75.8	78.3
AAC	98.4	98.1	98.2	98.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.3	120.2	121.1	120.5
NC State	117.4	116.4	117.5	117.1
Florida St.	112.6	112.0	112.0	112.2
Louisville	109.1	107.9	108.1	108.3
Syracuse	108.7	107.6	107.4	107.9
Wake Forest	107.2	106.7	106.6	106.8
Boston College	99.0	100.6	98.0	99.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	116.1	114.7	115.8	115.5
Pittsburgh	115.2	113.9	113.3	114.1
North Carolina	107.3	107.6	107.3	107.4
Virginia	102.3	102.4	100.3	101.7
Virginia Tech	100.5	101.0	98.4	100.0
Georgia Tech	94.8	94.6	92.8	94.0
Duke	89.4	92.0	86.8	89.4
ACC	107.1	107.0	106.1	106.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	118.8	117.8	118.9	118.5
Oklahoma St.	117.0	115.5	116.8	116.4
Baylor	115.3	114.0	114.5	114.6
Texas	113.0	112.1	111.9	112.3
Kansas St.	112.8	111.3	111.8	112.0
T C U	111.4	109.9	110.1	110.4
Iowa St.	109.3	109.2	109.5	109.3
Texas Tech	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
West Virginia	104.1	103.7	102.6	103.5
Kansas	101.4	99.3	98.4	99.7
Big 12	111.1	109.9	110.3	110.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	127.2	125.2	127.6	126.6
Michigan	124.5	123.0	124.5	124.0
Michigan St.	118.6	117.4	116.7	117.6
Penn St.	115.8	115.7	115.4	115.6
Maryland	110.2	110.3	109.9	110.1
Rutgers	103.1	102.4	100.3	101.9
Indiana	101.6	101.0	98.6	100.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Purdue	116.7	115.5	114.7	115.7
Wisconsin	115.8	115.1	114.8	115.3
Minnesota	114.6	114.0	115.0	114.5
Iowa	113.7	112.2	111.7	112.5
Illinois	105.6	106.2	103.9	105.2
Nebraska	104.3	104.2	103.0	103.8
Northwestern	99.2	100.3	97.1	98.9
Big Ten	112.2	111.6	110.9	111.6
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.1	98.3	99.7	98.7
W. Kentucky	97.5	97.3	100.2	98.3
U T S A	97.7	96.3	97.7	97.3
Florida Atlantic	89.0	90.6	89.2	89.6
North Texas	86.9	86.1	88.0	87.0
U T E P	85.2	84.8	85.2	85.1
Middle Tennessee	83.2	84.4	84.5	84.0
Louisiana Tech	81.4	82.9	79.9	81.4
Rice	80.5	79.9	79.4	79.9
Charlotte	77.8	78.9	77.2	78.0
Florida Int’l.	65.0	67.8	63.2	65.3
CUSA	85.7	86.1	85.9	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Average	Average
BYU	113.6	111.7	113.7	113.0
Notre Dame	112.8	110.9	113.0	112.2
Army	97.0	97.4	97.3	97.2
Liberty	95.2	97.1	97.6	96.6
Connecticut	78.8	80.0	76.1	78.3
New Mexico St.	75.0	77.1	74.5	75.5
Massachusetts	72.2	72.6	69.7	71.5
Independents	92.1	92.4	91.7	92.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	90.9	93.8	93.6	92.8
Kent St.	87.4	89.7	87.7	88.3
Bowling Green	86.9	85.6	86.0	86.2
Ohio	84.4	86.8	86.1	85.8
Buffalo	82.0	84.6	83.7	83.4
Akron	76.4	77.1	75.7	76.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	96.9	97.2	97.3	97.1
Toledo	95.7	97.0	97.5	96.7
Western Mich.	92.6	93.8	93.9	93.4
Central Mich.	91.4	93.3	94.2	93.0
Eastern Mich.	86.1	86.6	85.8	86.2
Ball St.	83.1	84.2	83.1	83.4
MAC	87.8	89.1	88.7	88.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Air Force	104.1	104.0	105.6	104.6
Boise St.	104.2	103.2	104.8	104.1
Utah St.	89.7	89.9	90.4	90.0
Colorado St.	85.2	86.1	85.4	85.5
Wyoming	83.7	86.2	84.9	84.9
New Mexico	83.4	83.9	82.2	83.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.3	102.6	104.5	103.5
San Diego St.	95.4	95.3	95.6	95.5
U N L V	89.2	86.9	89.0	88.4
San Jose St.	87.6	88.0	88.8	88.1
Nevada	85.7	87.8	85.8	86.4
Hawaii	72.0	73.3	72.7	72.6
MWC	90.3	90.6	90.8	90.6
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.0	114.7	117.6	116.1
Oregon	111.4	110.9	110.6	111.0
U S C	109.4	110.0	110.2	109.9
U C L A	108.9	108.8	110.5	109.4
Oregon St.	108.5	108.0	109.4	108.6
Washington	105.5	106.6	106.9	106.3
Arizona St.	104.8	104.6	105.8	105.1
Washington St.	101.4	102.0	102.2	101.9
Stanford	102.6	100.0	100.6	101.1
California	97.6	97.8	98.8	98.1
Arizona	96.4	96.3	96.3	96.3
Colorado	94.1	92.2	92.9	93.1
Pac-12	104.7	104.3	105.2	104.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.2	131.5	134.8	133.2
Tennessee	116.9	116.8	117.2	117.0
Kentucky	112.8	113.6	114.3	113.6
South Carolina	109.6	108.8	109.2	109.2
Florida	106.2	108.1	106.7	107.0
Missouri	102.2	102.6	101.0	102.0
Vanderbilt	93.9	94.9	92.0	93.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.1	127.9	130.4	129.1
Arkansas	116.3	114.5	116.7	115.8
Mississippi St.	115.9	114.3	114.7	114.9
L S U	114.1	113.2	113.1	113.5
Ole Miss	114.2	112.2	112.6	113.0
Texas A&M	110.5	111.8	111.8	111.4
Auburn	110.0	108.5	108.7	109.1
SEC	113.2	112.8	113.1	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	98.6	100.5	101.3	100.2
Georgia St.	98.9	98.0	101.5	99.5
Marshall	95.6	97.0	96.3	96.3
James Madison	92.5	94.4	97.4	94.8
Coastal Carolina	92.5	94.0	94.8	93.8
Ga. Southern	90.5	90.0	91.0	90.5
Old Dominion	90.4	90.4	90.4	90.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	96.9	97.4	99.5	98.0
Troy	91.0	91.2	92.3	91.5
South Alabama	89.7	90.2	91.3	90.4
Southern Miss.	86.2	86.9	86.8	86.6
Arkansas St.	83.8	85.3	84.5	84.5
UL-Monroe	82.6	82.9	81.7	82.4
Texas St.	80.2	81.4	81.0	80.9
Sun Belt	90.7	91.4	92.1	91.4

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	111.6
3	Big 12	110.4
4	Atlantic Coast	106.7
5	Pac-12	104.7
6	American Athletic	98.2
7	Independents	92.1
8	Sun Belt	91.4
9	Mountain West	90.6
10	Mid-American	88.6
11	Conference USA	85.9

A Tale of Two Conferences

In the mid 1990’s, Conference USA formed when the old Metro Conference dissolved. The league was founded to combine two former basketball conferences into a Midwestern league. At the time, it also had some rather successful football teams. Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Southern Miss., UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, East Carolina, and Army were all early members of the new league. Then, TCU joined and had a top 5 season in the early 2000’s. The league saw early success, and with that, the Big East raided CUSA and took Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida. Seeing the writing on the wall, TCU bolted for the Mountain West, where an incredible rivalry with Boise State ensued. CUSA then expanded with new members, making the league quite relevant, as the new teams provided numerous upsets over Power Conference opponents. Central Florida, SMU, Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, and Marshall joined the league and all found some successful seasons. Then, the American Athletic Conference formed, and once again, CUSA lost some significant teams in Memphis, Tulane, Houston, Central Florida, SMU, and Tulsa.

The Sun Belt Conference began as a basketball league back in the mid-1970’s, and in its early years, the league jumped over many others in the Low and Mid-Major area. There was a year where four SBC teams made the NCAA Tournament. The league saw teams come and go, as it struggled financially. They even kicked New Orleans out of the conference because the Privateers did not have a Division 1 level gymnasium.

The Sun Belt decided to sponsor football beginning in the early part of this century. Almost annually, the makeup of the league changed. Teams as far west as Utah State and Idaho joined the conference at times, as they played in the same league with teams from Florida. When Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, and UAB all left the Sun Belt for CUSA in a matter of a couple of seasons, it looked like CUSA would force the SBC back to a basketball conference, while CUSA continued to thrive with some respectable programs.

Then, something happened. About the time that the SEC was becoming a super league and superior to all others, and all their member schools began recruiting nationally instead of regionally, a lot of really good Southeastern recruits started to lose out to the elite 5-star and high 4-star talents from all over America. These low 4-star and 3-star players had once filled SEC rosters, but now they needed to find other schools. Many of them chose to stay near their homes, and that mean Sun Belt Conference schools.

Schools like Troy, Georgia Southern, and what was still known as Louisiana-Lafayette started getting players that used to go to Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. The addition of Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State to the league as they moved to FBS brought some solid former FCS programs that further strengthened this league. All of a sudden, the SBC passed CUSA, and it was CUSA that almost died when the 2021 expansion routlette began. Texas and Oklahoma decided to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, so the Big 12 robbed the AAC of its three best schools, and then the AAC robbed CUSA of its largest market schools. Three schools, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss quickly petitioned the Sun Belt for admission and were fast-tracked. Then the league found a real diamond in the rough in James Madison. Meanwhile, CUSA had to look for crumbs just to survive. They secured markers for FCS schools Jacksonville State and Sam Houston, and then added Liberty and New Mexico State as future members. It was almost too late, because both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee came very close to leaving for the Mid-American Conference.

In just five or six years, the Sun Belt rose from weakeast FBS league by far to possibly the strongest. Once Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida leave the American, the SBC should be better than the new AAC with CUSA teams. It has already passed the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Conference USA football as a whole might not be as strong as the FCS Missouri Valley Football Conference once the league is reduced to ashes by the departures of its top markets.

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 9-10, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Central Florida	Louisville	-0.4	1.7	1.7
New Mexico	Boise St.	-17.8	-16.0	-19.8
Ohio St.	Arkansas St.	48.8	45.1	48.9
Georgia St.	North Carolina	-5.8	-7.1	-2.7
Penn St.	Ohio	34.3	31.0	31.2
Army	UTSA	2.7	4.9	3.4
Miami (Fla.)	Southern Miss.	34.5	32.4	33.8
Northwestern	Duke	17.8	16.3	18.8
Kansas St.	Missouri	10.4	8.8	10.3
Arkansas	South Carolina	9.1	7.7	9.5
Texas	Alabama	-15.6	-15.5	-18.8
Vanderbilt	Wake Forest	-8.4	-6.4	-9.5
Central Michigan	South Alabama	9.0	10.8	11.0
Ball St.	Western Michigan	-7.0	-7.2	-8.5
Notre Dame	Marshall	28.3	25.1	27.8
Charlotte	Maryland	-29.2	-27.9	-29.2
Pittsburgh	Tennessee	1.5	0.2	-0.7
Navy	Memphis	-3.2	-4.2	-4.4
Air Force	Colorado	7.3	9.1	9.8
Texas A&M	Appalachian St.	20.0	19.6	18.8
Wisconsin	Washington St.	22.3	21.0	20.5
Colorado St.	Middle Tennessee	10.1	9.9	9.2
Michigan St.	Akron	44.3	41.8	42.4
Illinois	Virginia	3.1	3.4	2.7
California	UNLV	11.8	14.7	13.6
Texas Tech	Houston	5.9	4.9	5.1
Iowa	Iowa St.	8.7	7.2	6.5
East Carolina	Old Dominion	12.6	12.1	13.5
West Virginia	Kansas	6.8	8.9	9.1
Liberty	UAB	-1.7	0.1	-1.2
Florida	Kentucky	-2.2	-1.1	-2.8
Toledo	Massachusetts	21.1	21.9	25.6
Connecticut	Syracuse	-26.3	-23.5	-27.7
Oklahoma	Kent St.	35.0	31.4	35.0
Louisiana	Eastern Michigan	10.4	10.2	13.3
Tulsa	Northern Illinois	1.0	-0.1	0.4
Texas St.	Florida Int’l.	14.8	12.6	17.2
Auburn	San Jose St.	28.2	26.4	26.1
Nebraska	Georgia Southern	23.0	23.6	21.2
Stanford	USC	-1.4	-5.0	-4.2
Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.	14.9	13.4	13.2
Michigan	Hawaii	55.5	52.6	54.8
Virginia Tech	Boston College	1.7	0.3	-0.2
UTEP	New Mexico St.	12.8	9.9	13.9
BYU	Baylor	1.2	0.5	1.9
Fresno St.	Oregon St.	-2.0	-2.3	-1.5
Arizona	Mississippi St.	-15.9	-13.9	-14.4

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Minnesota	Western Illinois	32.5
North Carolina St.	Charleston Southern	34.1
Utah	Southern Utah	34.8
Temple	Lafayette	9.7
Clemson	Furman	34.2
Cincinnati	Kennesaw St.	29.7
Georgia	Samford	42.3
Washington	Portland St.	23.8
Purdue	Indiana St.	30.1
Rutgers	Wagner	38.4
Wyoming	Northern Colorado	22.4
Bowling Green	Eastern Kentucky	5.8
James Madison	Norfolk St.	32.7
UCLA	Alabama St.	36.8
Nevada	Incarnate Word	10.2
Buffalo	Holy Cross	9.7
Miami (O)	Robert Morris	29.2
Coastal Carolina	Gardner-Webb	29.5
Florida Atlantic	Southeast Louisiana	10.1
Ole Miss	Central Arkansas	29.7
Georgia Tech	Western Carolina	18.8
Utah St.	Weber St.	9.8
Tulane	Alcorn St.	23.7
SMU	Lamar	39.5
South Florida	Howard	26.6
Troy	Alabama A&M	25.3
Louisiana Tech	Stephen F. Austin	10.1
LSU	Southern	32.4
North Texas	Texas Southern	27.1
Rice	McNeese St.	6.6
TCU	Tarleton	31.2
Indiana	Idaho	21.5
San Diego St.	Idaho St.	25.9
UL-Monroe	Nicholls St.	7.5
Oregon	Eastern Washington	21.6

Bye Weeks

Florida St.

Western Kentucky

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	133.4
2	Alabama	130.8
3	Ohio St.	127.9
4	Michigan	123.7
5	Clemson	120.8
6	Oklahoma	118.8
7	Wisconsin	117.9
8	Notre Dame	117.2
9	Michigan St.	117.1
10	Tennessee	116.9
11	NC State	116.4
12	Miami (Fla.)	116.4
13	Oklahoma St.	116.2
14	Arkansas	115.4
15	Penn St.	115.3
16	Utah	115.1
17	Baylor	114.7
18	Purdue	114.7
19	Mississippi St.	114.5
20	Texas A&M	114.4
21	Pittsburgh	114.2
22	Iowa	114.0
23	Minnesota	113.7
24	BYU	112.9
25	Kentucky	112.8
26	L S U	112.2
27	Florida St.	111.9
28	Ole Miss	111.5
29	Cincinnati	111.4
30	Texas	111.2
31	Auburn	110.9
32	Kansas St.	110.7
33	T C U	109.7
34	Maryland	109.7
35	South Carolina	109.6
36	U C L A	109.3
37	U S C	108.7
38	Iowa St.	108.5
39	Oregon St.	108.5
40	Oregon	108.5
41	Louisville	107.9
42	Texas Tech	107.8
43	Florida	107.8
44	Nebraska	107.4
45	North Carolina	107.3
46	Syracuse	107.3
47	UCF	105.9
48	Wake Forest	105.5
49	Washington	105.3
50	Arizona St.	105.3
51	Houston	105.0
52	SMU	105.0
53	West Virginia	104.1
54	Boise St.	104.0
55	Missouri	103.9
56	Fresno St.	103.6
57	Illinois	103.5
58	Virginia	103.4
59	Air Force	102.4
60	Stanford	102.2
61	Northwestern	101.2
62	East Carolina	101.0
63	Indiana	100.9
64	Boston College	100.8
65	Rutgers	100.7
66	Georgia St.	99.6
67	Washington St.	99.6
68	U A B	99.4
69	Kansas	98.8
70	Tulane	98.5
71	California	98.4
72	Virginia Tech	98.4
73	W. Kentucky	98.1
74	Appalachian St.	98.0
75	Army	97.6
76	N. Illinois	97.3
77	U T S A	96.9
78	Arizona	96.8
79	Louisiana	96.6
80	Memphis	96.3
81	Liberty	96.0
82	Colorado	95.7
83	Central Mich.	95.6
84	Coastal Carolina	95.5
85	San Diego St.	95.3
86	Vanderbilt	94.9
87	Tulsa	94.7
88	Toledo	94.6
89	Georgia Tech	94.1
90	USF	93.7
91	Utah St.	93.5
92	James Madison	93.5
93	Miami (Ohio)	93.5
94	Western Mich.	93.5
95	Marshall	93.1
96	Troy	91.6
97	Old Dominion	90.8
98	Navy	89.9
99	Nevada	88.6
100	Colorado St.	88.5
101	Florida Atlantic	88.2
102	U N L V	88.1
103	Kent St.	88.0
104	Ga. Southern	87.9
105	Eastern Mich.	87.8
106	South Alabama	87.8
107	San Jose St.	87.0
108	Bowling Green	86.9
109	North Texas	86.8
110	Duke	86.5
111	Ohio	86.1
112	Southern Miss.	85.8
113	U T E P	85.4
114	Wyoming	84.9
115	Buffalo	84.9
116	Ball St.	83.4
117	Arkansas St.	83.3
118	New Mexico	83.2
119	Middle Tennessee	81.8
120	UL-Monroe	81.2
121	Louisiana Tech	80.2
122	Texas St.	79.5
123	Connecticut	78.9
124	Charlotte	78.4
125	Temple	78.0
126	Rice	77.9
127	Akron	77.2
128	New Mexico St.	75.2
129	Massachusetts	74.3
130	Hawaii	72.9
131	Florida Int’l.	67.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.2	110.3	112.8	111.4
UCF	105.4	106.1	106.2	105.9
Houston	104.8	104.3	106.0	105.0
SMU	105.1	104.3	105.5	105.0
East Carolina	100.8	100.4	101.8	101.0
Tulane	99.0	98.3	98.3	98.5
Memphis	96.4	96.6	96.0	96.3
Tulsa	95.0	94.3	94.9	94.7
USF	94.7	93.1	93.5	93.7
Navy	90.7	89.9	89.1	89.9
Temple	78.0	80.4	75.5	78.0
AAC	98.3	98.0	98.2	98.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.6	120.5	121.4	120.8
NC State	116.7	115.7	116.8	116.4
Florida St.	112.3	111.7	111.7	111.9
Louisville	108.8	107.4	107.5	107.9
Syracuse	108.2	106.8	106.8	107.3
Wake Forest	106.0	105.3	105.3	105.5
Boston College	100.4	102.2	99.8	100.8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	116.9	115.5	116.7	116.4
Pittsburgh	115.3	114.0	113.4	114.2
North Carolina	107.3	107.6	107.0	107.3
Virginia	103.9	104.1	102.2	103.4
Virginia Tech	99.1	99.4	96.6	98.4
Georgia Tech	94.9	94.7	92.9	94.1
Duke	86.6	89.2	83.7	86.5
ACC	106.9	106.7	105.8	106.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.1	117.9	119.3	118.8
Oklahoma St.	116.9	115.2	116.4	116.2
Baylor	115.4	114.1	114.6	114.7
Texas	112.0	111.0	110.5	111.2
Kansas St.	111.6	110.2	110.4	110.7
T C U	110.7	109.2	109.4	109.7
Iowa St.	108.5	108.4	108.7	108.5
Texas Tech	108.2	106.7	108.6	107.8
West Virginia	104.5	104.3	103.4	104.1
Kansas	100.7	98.4	97.3	98.8
Big 12	110.7	109.5	109.9	110.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.4	126.3	129.0	127.9
Michigan	124.2	122.7	124.2	123.7
Michigan St.	118.3	116.8	116.1	117.1
Penn St.	115.7	115.3	114.9	115.3
Maryland	109.9	109.8	109.4	109.7
Indiana	102.1	101.5	99.1	100.9
Rutgers	101.9	101.2	99.1	100.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.4	117.7	117.4	117.9
Purdue	115.7	114.5	113.7	114.7
Iowa	115.2	113.7	113.2	114.0
Minnesota	113.8	113.2	114.2	113.7
Nebraska	107.9	107.9	106.6	107.4
Illinois	104.0	104.5	102.0	103.5
Northwestern	101.4	102.5	99.6	101.2
Big Ten	112.6	112.0	111.3	112.0
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.7	98.9	100.5	99.4
W. Kentucky	97.3	97.1	100.0	98.1
U T S A	97.5	95.9	97.3	96.9
Florida Atlantic	87.6	89.2	87.8	88.2
North Texas	86.7	85.9	87.8	86.8
U T E P	85.5	84.9	85.8	85.4
Middle Tennessee	81.0	82.1	82.2	81.8
Louisiana Tech	80.2	81.7	78.7	80.2
Charlotte	78.1	79.4	77.7	78.4
Rice	78.5	77.9	77.4	77.9
Florida Int’l.	66.7	69.8	65.0	67.2
CUSA	85.3	85.7	85.5	85.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	117.8	115.9	118.0	117.2
BYU	113.5	111.6	113.6	112.9
Army	97.2	97.8	97.7	97.6
Liberty	94.6	96.5	96.8	96.0
Connecticut	79.3	80.8	76.7	78.9
New Mexico St.	74.7	77.0	73.9	75.2
Massachusetts	75.0	75.5	72.4	74.3
Independents	93.2	93.6	92.7	93.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.6	94.5	94.3	93.5
Kent St.	87.1	89.6	87.3	88.0
Bowling Green	87.6	86.3	86.7	86.9
Ohio	84.5	87.2	86.6	86.1
Buffalo	83.5	86.1	85.2	84.9
Akron	77.0	78.0	76.6	77.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.0	97.4	97.5	97.3
Central Mich.	93.8	95.9	97.0	95.6
Toledo	93.6	94.8	95.5	94.6
Western Mich.	92.6	93.8	94.0	93.5
Eastern Mich.	87.7	88.3	87.4	87.8
Ball St.	83.1	84.2	83.0	83.4
MAC	88.3	89.7	89.3	89.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.2	103.0	104.9	104.0
Air Force	102.0	101.9	103.4	102.4
Utah St.	93.2	93.4	93.9	93.5
Colorado St.	88.1	89.1	88.4	88.5
Wyoming	83.7	86.2	84.9	84.9
New Mexico	83.4	84.1	82.1	83.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.4	102.7	104.7	103.6
San Diego St.	95.2	95.1	95.4	95.3
Nevada	87.9	90.0	88.0	88.6
U N L V	89.0	86.5	88.6	88.1
San Jose St.	86.5	86.9	87.6	87.0
Hawaii	72.3	73.6	73.0	72.9
MWC	90.7	91.0	91.2	91.0
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	115.0	113.7	116.6	115.1
U C L A	108.8	108.7	110.4	109.3
U S C	108.2	109.0	109.0	108.7
Oregon St.	108.4	107.9	109.2	108.5
Oregon	108.9	108.4	108.1	108.5
Washington	104.5	105.6	105.9	105.3
Arizona St.	104.9	104.9	106.2	105.3
Stanford	103.8	101.0	101.8	102.2
Washington St.	99.1	99.7	99.9	99.6
California	97.8	98.2	99.2	98.4
Arizona	96.7	96.8	96.8	96.8
Colorado	96.7	94.8	95.6	95.7
Pac-12	104.4	104.1	104.9	104.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.4	131.7	135.0	133.4
Tennessee	116.8	116.7	117.1	116.9
Kentucky	112.1	112.9	113.4	112.8
South Carolina	109.9	109.3	109.7	109.6
Florida	106.9	108.8	107.6	107.8
Missouri	104.1	104.4	103.1	103.9
Vanderbilt	95.1	96.3	93.3	94.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.6	129.5	132.3	130.8
Arkansas	116.0	114.0	116.2	115.4
Mississippi St.	115.6	113.8	114.2	114.5
Texas A&M	113.5	114.9	114.9	114.4
L S U	112.8	111.9	111.8	112.2
Ole Miss	112.7	110.7	111.1	111.5
Auburn	111.8	110.3	110.6	110.9
SEC	113.7	113.2	113.6	113.5
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia St.	98.9	98.0	101.8	99.6
Appalachian St.	96.5	98.3	99.1	98.0
Coastal Carolina	94.2	95.7	96.5	95.5
James Madison	91.2	93.1	96.1	93.5
Marshall	92.4	93.8	93.1	93.1
Old Dominion	90.7	90.8	90.8	90.8
Ga. Southern	87.9	87.3	88.4	87.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	95.6	96.0	98.2	96.6
Troy	91.1	91.3	92.4	91.6
South Alabama	87.3	87.6	88.5	87.8
Southern Miss.	85.4	86.1	85.9	85.8
Arkansas St.	82.6	84.2	83.1	83.3
UL-Monroe	81.4	81.7	80.5	81.2
Texas St.	79.0	79.9	79.7	79.5
Sun Belt	89.6	90.3	91.0	90.3

Rating of Conferences

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.5
2	Big Ten	112.0
3	Big 12	110.0
4	Atlantic Coast	106.5
5	Pac-12	104.4
6	American Athletic	98.1
7	Independents	93.2
8	Mountain West	91.0
9	Sun Belt	90.3
10	Mid-American	89.1
11	Conference USA	85.5

Playoff Projections

#1: Alabama

#2: Georgia

#3: Ohio St.

#4: Clemson

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sept. 1-5, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tennessee	Ball St.	33.5	32.0	33.5
Pittsburgh	West Virginia	13.7	12.6	13.3
Purdue	Penn St.	4.7	4.1	4.0
Missouri	Louisiana Tech	26.7	25.1	27.2
Minnesota	New Mexico St.	42.0	39.0	43.1
Oklahoma St.	Central Michigan	28.2	24.0	24.4
Indiana	Illinois	0.3	-0.8	-0.7
Old Dominion	Virginia Tech	-9.0	-9.4	-6.4
Michigan St.	Western Michigan	29.8	26.9	26.2
Duke	Temple	5.8	5.8	5.0
Colorado	TCU	-7.3	-7.6	-6.6
Ole Miss	Troy	25.7	23.5	22.8
Florida	Utah	-7.0	-3.5	-8.6
South Florida	BYU	-12.9	-12.5	-14.0
Syracuse	Louisville	-2.9	-3.3	-3.5
Ohio St.	Notre Dame	14.2	14.1	15.2
Maryland	Buffalo	30.1	27.4	28.0
Michigan	Colorado St.	38.2	35.0	37.4
Appalachian St.	North Carolina	-10.0	-8.4	-6.7
Boston College	Rutgers	2.2	5.1	5.0
James Madison	Middle Tennessee	4.0	4.7	7.7
Coastal Carolina	Army	-2.8	-2.1	-1.2
Kentucky	Miami (O)	23.5	21.2	21.9
South Carolina	Georgia St.	13.1	13.3	9.3
North Texas	SMU	-10.5	-10.4	-9.3
Ohio	Florida Atlantic	-0.8	0.4	1.4
East Carolina	North Carolina St.	-16.3	-15.7	-15.6
Wyoming	Tulsa	-10.1	-6.3	-8.8
USC	Rice	27.1	28.5	29.0
UCLA	Bowling Green	23.8	25.0	26.3
Oregon St.	Boise St.	4.1	4.6	3.8
Washington	Kent St.	19.8	17.8	20.8
San Diego St.	Arizona	6.4	6.4	6.9
Nevada	Texas St.	9.2	10.5	8.1
Georgia (Atlanta)	Oregon	21.4	19.8	23.8
Southern Miss.	Liberty	-7.8	-9.3	-10.3
Alabama	Utah St.	37.2	35.5	38.0
Oklahoma	UTEP	37.2	36.6	37.4
Mississippi St.	Memphis	20.6	18.0	19.0
Texas	UL-Monroe	32.0	30.3	31.0
Arkansas	Cincinnati	7.5	6.5	6.2
UTSA	Houston	-5.9	-7.4	-7.9
Tulane	Massachusetts	25.9	24.3	27.8
Hawaii	Western Kentucky	-18.5	-16.5	-20.2
LSU (New Orleans)	Florida St.	3.4	3.3	3.5
Georgia Tech	Clemson	-21.7	-21.5	-24.4

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Akron	St. Francis (PA)	8.3
Central Florida	S. Carolina St.	29.5
Florida Int’l.	Bryant	8.8
Toledo	Long Island	39.0
Wake Forest	VMI	31.7
Northern Illinois	Eastern Illinois	28.0
UAB	Alabama A&M	28.8
Arizona St.	Northern Arizona	26.1
Fresno St.	Cal Poly SLO	31.3
San Jose St.	Portland St.	12.7
Eastern Michigan	Eastern Kentucky	13.2
Charlotte	William & Mary	3.8
Kansas	Tennessee Tech	25.1
Air Force	Northern Iowa	15.3
New Mexico	Maine	4.6
Texas A&M	Sam Houston	27.7
Connecticut	Central Connecticut	13.0
Iowa	South Dakota St.	16.7
Navy	Delaware	18.1
Virginia	Richmond	22.1
Iowa St.	SE Missouri St.	33.2
Nebraska	North Dakota	21.1
Miami (Fla.)	Bethune-Cookman	38.6
Marshall	Norfolk St.	28.1
California	UC Davis	18.6
South Alabama	Nicholls St.	9.7
Georgia Southern	Morgan St.	28.6
Auburn	Mercer	28.2
Vanderbilt	Elon	17.2
Kansas St.	South Dakota	23.2
Wisconsin	Illinois St.	31.3
Louisiana	SE Louisiana	18.1
Baylor	Albany	38.5
Arkansas St.	Grambling	21.8
Stanford	Colgate	30.3
Texas Tech	Murray St.	30.0
Washington St.	Idaho	25.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	130.5
2	Alabama	129.1
3	Ohio St.	128.3
4	Michigan	123.0
5	Clemson	120.0
6	Oklahoma	119.1
7	NC State	118.1
8	Michigan St.	117.7
9	Wisconsin	117.6
10	Oklahoma St.	117.5
11	Notre Dame	116.8
12	Utah	116.6
13	Purdue	115.9
14	Arkansas	115.3
15	Tennessee	115.1
16	Pittsburgh	115.0
17	Iowa	114.7
18	Miami (Fla.)	114.7
19	Penn St.	114.6
20	Texas A&M	114.3
21	Mississippi St.	113.9
22	Minnesota	113.6
23	Baylor	113.5
24	Kentucky	112.7
25	L S U	112.5
26	Ole Miss	112.2
27	Florida St.	111.6
28	BYU	111.5
29	Cincinnati	111.5
30	Oregon	111.3
31	Auburn	111.2
32	Louisville	111.0
33	Kansas St.	110.3
34	Texas	110.2
35	Maryland	110.0
36	U C L A	109.1
37	South Carolina	109.1
38	Iowa St.	108.7
39	North Carolina	108.2
40	T C U	107.8
41	Nebraska	107.6
42	Oregon St.	107.2
43	Texas Tech	106.7
44	Florida	106.7
45	Boise St.	106.0
46	U S C	105.9
47	Houston	105.5
48	Wake Forest	105.4
49	Washington	104.9
50	Syracuse	104.8
51	Arizona St.	104.5
52	UCF	104.4
53	Illinois	103.8
54	Missouri	103.7
55	Virginia	103.6
56	Fresno St.	103.5
57	West Virginia	103.3
58	Stanford	102.2
59	SMU	102.0
60	Washington St.	101.5
61	Air Force	101.4
62	Northwestern	101.2
63	Boston College	101.2
64	Indiana	100.9
65	Georgia St.	100.1
66	Rutgers	100.1
67	East Carolina	99.8
68	Virginia Tech	99.7
69	Army	99.0
70	California	98.3
71	N. Illinois	98.2
72	Tulane	98.2
73	U A B	98.1
74	Appal. St.	97.8
75	San Diego St.	97.7
76	Colorado	97.6
77	Kansas	97.3
78	Memphis	97.2
79	Liberty	97.0
80	Louisiana	96.9
81	W. Kentucky	96.7
82	U T S A	96.5
83	Tulsa	95.5
84	Vanderbilt	95.4
85	USF	95.4
86	Utah St.	95.2
87	Georgia Tech	95.0
88	Central Mich.	95.0
89	Toledo	94.5
90	Arizona	94.1
91	Coastal Car.	94.0
92	Miami (Ohio)	93.5
93	Western Mich.	93.1
94	Navy	92.2
95	Marshall	92.1
96	Troy	91.2
97	North Texas	90.4
98	J. Madison	89.5
99	Old Dominion	89.4
100	Colorado St.	89.2
101	Florida Atlantic	88.6
102	Eastern Mich.	88.5
103	Kent St.	88.4
104	U N L V	88.1
105	Nevada	87.8
106	San Jose St.	87.4
107	Bowling Green	87.1
108	Ga. Southern	86.6
109	Middle Tennessee	86.5
110	Ohio	85.9
111	South Alabama	85.8
112	Southern Miss.	85.3
113	Ball St.	85.1
114	U T E P	85.1
115	Buffalo	84.5
116	Wyoming	84.1
117	Duke	84.1
118	UL-Monroe	82.1
119	Temple	81.1
120	Texas St.	81.0
121	Arkansas St.	80.8
122	Rice	80.7
123	Charlotte	80.7
124	Louisiana Tech	80.4
125	New Mexico	80.2
126	Akron	78.5
127	Connecticut	78.2
128	New Mexico St.	75.3
129	Hawaii	74.8
130	Massachusetts	74.7
131	Florida Int’l.	67.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.3	110.4	112.9	111.5
Houston	105.1	104.8	106.6	105.5
UCF	103.9	104.6	104.7	104.4
SMU	102.3	101.4	102.4	102.0
East Carolina	99.6	99.2	100.5	99.8
Tulane	98.7	97.8	98.0	98.2
Memphis	97.1	97.6	97.0	97.2
Tulsa	95.9	94.9	95.8	95.5
USF	96.3	94.8	95.2	95.4
Navy	93.0	92.2	91.4	92.2
Temple	81.0	83.5	78.7	81.1
AAC	98.6	98.3	98.5	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.8	119.6	120.6	120.0
NC State	118.4	117.4	118.6	118.1
Florida St.	112.1	111.4	111.3	111.6
Louisville	111.8	110.6	110.8	111.0
Wake Forest	105.9	105.2	105.2	105.4
Syracuse	105.9	104.3	104.2	104.8
Boston College	100.6	102.6	100.3	101.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	116.0	114.7	114.3	115.0
Miami (Fla.)	115.2	113.8	115.0	114.7
North Carolina	108.3	108.5	107.8	108.2
Virginia	104.1	104.3	102.4	103.6
Virginia Tech	100.4	100.8	97.9	99.7
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.6	93.7	95.0
Duke	84.3	86.8	81.2	84.1
ACC	107.0	106.8	105.9	106.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.4	118.2	119.8	119.1
Oklahoma St.	118.3	116.4	117.7	117.5
Baylor	114.2	112.9	113.4	113.5
Kansas St.	111.2	109.8	110.0	110.3
Texas	111.2	110.0	109.5	110.2
Iowa St.	108.7	108.6	108.9	108.7
T C U	108.9	107.3	107.3	107.8
Texas Tech	107.1	105.6	107.5	106.7
West Virginia	103.8	103.6	102.5	103.3
Kansas	99.2	96.9	95.8	97.3
Big 12	110.2	108.9	109.2	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.7	126.7	129.6	128.3
Michigan	123.7	121.9	123.5	123.0
Michigan St.	119.0	117.4	116.8	117.7
Penn St.	115.1	114.6	114.1	114.6
Maryland	110.3	110.1	109.8	110.0
Indiana	102.1	101.5	99.1	100.9
Rutgers	101.4	100.5	98.3	100.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.1	117.4	117.1	117.6
Purdue	116.8	115.7	115.0	115.9
Iowa	115.9	114.4	113.9	114.7
Minnesota	113.7	113.1	114.1	113.6
Nebraska	108.1	108.1	106.8	107.6
Illinois	104.3	104.8	102.3	103.8
Northwestern	101.4	102.5	99.6	101.2
Big Ten	112.8	112.0	111.4	112.1
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	97.4	97.6	99.2	98.1
W. Kentucky	96.0	95.6	98.6	96.7
U T S A	97.2	95.4	96.7	96.5
North Texas	90.2	89.5	91.6	90.4
Florida Atlantic	88.0	89.6	88.1	88.6
Middle Tennessee	85.7	86.8	86.9	86.5
U T E P	85.2	84.6	85.3	85.1
Rice	81.3	80.7	80.2	80.7
Charlotte	80.4	81.7	80.0	80.7
Louisiana Tech	80.3	82.0	78.8	80.4
Florida Int’l.	67.1	70.2	65.4	67.6
CUSA	86.3	86.7	86.5	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	117.5	115.5	117.4	116.8
BYU	112.2	110.2	112.2	111.5
Army	98.6	99.3	99.2	99.0
Liberty	95.4	97.5	98.0	97.0
Connecticut	78.6	80.1	76.0	78.2
New Mexico St.	74.8	77.1	74.0	75.3
Massachusetts	75.3	76.0	72.7	74.7
Independents	93.2	93.7	92.8	93.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.6	94.6	94.4	93.5
Kent St.	87.4	90.2	87.7	88.4
Bowling Green	87.8	86.5	86.9	87.1
Ohio	84.3	87.0	86.5	85.9
Buffalo	83.1	85.8	84.8	84.5
Akron	78.3	79.3	77.9	78.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.9	98.3	98.4	98.2
Central Mich.	93.1	95.4	96.4	95.0
Toledo	93.5	94.7	95.4	94.5
Western Mich.	92.2	93.5	93.6	93.1
Eastern Mich.	88.4	89.0	88.1	88.5
Ball St.	84.7	86.0	84.8	85.1
MAC	88.5	90.0	89.6	89.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	105.0	107.0	106.0
Air Force	101.0	100.9	102.4	101.4
Utah St.	94.8	95.2	95.6	95.2
Colorado St.	88.6	89.9	89.1	89.2
Wyoming	82.8	85.6	84.0	84.1
New Mexico	80.4	81.1	79.1	80.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.3	102.6	104.6	103.5
San Diego St.	97.5	97.5	97.9	97.7
U N L V	89.0	86.5	88.6	88.1
Nevada	87.2	89.3	87.0	87.8
San Jose St.	86.9	87.3	88.0	87.4
Hawaii	74.1	75.6	74.9	74.8
MWC	91.0	91.4	91.5	91.3
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.5	115.0	118.4	116.6
Oregon	111.7	111.4	110.9	111.3
U C L A	108.6	108.5	110.2	109.1
Oregon St.	107.2	106.6	107.8	107.2
U S C	105.4	106.2	106.2	105.9
Washington	104.2	105.0	105.5	104.9
Arizona St.	104.1	104.1	105.4	104.5
Stanford	103.8	101.0	101.8	102.2
Washington St.	101.0	101.6	101.8	101.5
California	97.7	98.1	99.1	98.3
Colorado	98.5	96.7	97.7	97.6
Arizona	94.1	94.1	94.0	94.1
Pac-12	104.4	104.0	104.9	104.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	130.6	128.7	132.2	130.5
Tennessee	115.2	114.9	115.3	115.1
Kentucky	112.1	112.8	113.3	112.7
South Carolina	109.5	108.8	108.9	109.1
Florida	105.9	108.0	106.3	106.7
Missouri	104.0	104.1	103.0	103.7
Vanderbilt	95.6	96.8	93.8	95.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.0	127.7	130.6	129.1
Arkansas	115.9	113.9	116.1	115.3
Texas A&M	113.4	114.8	114.8	114.3
Mississippi St.	115.2	113.1	113.5	113.9
L S U	113.0	112.2	112.2	112.5
Ole Miss	113.4	111.4	111.8	112.2
Auburn	112.1	110.6	110.9	111.2
SEC	113.2	112.7	113.1	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia St.	99.3	98.5	102.6	100.1
Appalachian St.	96.2	98.1	99.0	97.8
Coastal Carolina	92.8	94.2	95.0	94.0
Marshall	91.4	92.8	92.1	92.1
James Madison	87.2	89.1	92.1	89.5
Old Dominion	89.4	89.4	89.5	89.4
Ga. Southern	86.6	86.0	87.1	86.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	95.9	96.3	98.5	96.9
Troy	90.7	90.9	92.0	91.2
South Alabama	85.3	85.6	86.5	85.8
Southern Miss.	85.1	85.6	85.2	85.3
UL-Monroe	82.2	82.7	81.5	82.1
Texas St.	80.4	81.3	81.4	81.0
Arkansas St.	80.1	81.7	80.6	80.8
Sun Belt	88.8	89.4	90.2	89.5

Conference Rankings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	112.1
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Atlantic Coast	106.6
5	Pac-12	104.4
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	93.2
8	Mountain West	91.3
9	Sun Belt	89.5
10	Mid-American	89.4
11	Conference USA	86.5

The Best TV Games This Week

Thursday, September 1
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Pittsburgh	West Virginia
8:00 PM	Fox	Purdue	Penn St.
Friday, September 2
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Michigan St.	Western Michigan
8:00 PM	FS1	Indiana	Illinois
10:00 PM	ESPN	Colorado	TCU
Saturday, September 3
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	ABC	Michigan	Colorado St.
12:00 PM	ESPN	East Carolina	North Carolina St.
12:00 PM	ESPNU	Appalachian St.	North Carolina
12:00 PM	FS1	Iowa	South Dakota St.
3:30 PM	CBS	San Diego St.	Arizona
3:30 PM	ESPN	Arkansas	Cincinnati
3:30 PM	ABC	Georgia (Atl.)	Oregon
3:30 PM	Fox	Oklahoma	UTEP
7:00 PM	ESPN	Florida	Utah
7:30 PM	ESPNU	Mississippi St.	Memphis
7:30 PM	ABC	Ohio St.	Notre Dame
7:30 PM	SECN	Alabama	Utah St.
10:30 PM	ESPN	Oregon St.	Boise St.
10:30 PM	FS1	Washington	Kent St.
Sunday, September 4
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:30 PM	ABC	LSU (New Orleans)	Florida St.
Monday, September 5
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
8:00 PM	ESPN	Georgia Tech	Clemson

Big 12 Preview

This will be the final year that the Big 12 will have 10 teams. Next year, Central Florida, Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU will join the league, and for one to two years, the league will have 14 teams. Texas and Oklahoma are committed for now to remain in the Big 12 through the 2024 season. Things could change, as new league Commissioner Brett Yormark has indicated that he would be fine finding a win-win situation that would allow the Sooners and Longhorns to leave for the SEC before their scheduled July 1, 2025 date.

2022 expects to be an interesting year in the Big 12. Oklahoma welcomes a new head coach in Brent Venables, the former defensive coordinator at Clemson. There was a lot of player movement in Norman when former coach Lincoln Riley bolted for USC, but Venables has a lot of depth and talent remaining. Oklahoma is still the team to beat.

Rival Oklahoma State should see marked improvement on the defensive side, and the Cowboys must be considered the leading contender to earn the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas State figure to fight it out in the next tier with TCU just behind. These seven teams should all make bowl games. The bottom three could potentially tie for last at 1-8. Texas Tech has a lot of talent but a lot of holes. West Virginia is at a crossroads. Kansas is still the least talented team in the league, but second year coach Lance Leipold has the Jayhawks trending upward.

Preseason PiRate Ratings

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.3	118.1	119.7	119.0
Oklahoma St.	118.2	116.3	117.6	117.4
Baylor	114.1	112.8	113.3	113.4
Texas	111.7	110.5	110.0	110.7
Kansas St.	111.1	109.7	109.9	110.2
Iowa St.	108.6	108.5	108.8	108.6
T C U	108.8	107.2	107.2	107.7
Texas Tech	107.0	105.5	107.4	106.6
West Virginia	103.7	103.5	102.4	103.2
Kansas	99.1	96.8	95.7	97.2
Big 12	110.1	108.9	109.2	109.4

Preseason Big 12 Official Media Poll

		Votes
#	Team	1st Place	Overall
1	Baylor	17	365
2	Oklahoma	12	354
3	Oklahoma St.	9	342
4	Texas	2	289
5	Kansas St.	0	261
6	Iowa St.	1	180
7	TCU	0	149
8	West Virginia	0	147
9	Texas Tech	0	119
10	Kansas	0	48

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

Team	Conf.	Overall
Oklahoma	9-0	13-0
Oklahoma St.	8-1	11-2
Baylor	6-3	8-4
Texas	6-3	8-4
TCU	5-4	8-4
Kansas St.	4-5	7-5
Iowa St.	4-5	6-6
Texas Tech	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	1-8	2-10
Kansas	0-9	2-10

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–Saturday Morning, the day before Selection Sunday

Date	3/12/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Arizona	Gonzaga	Baylor	Kentucky
2	Kansas	Auburn	Duke	Purdue
3	Villanova	Tennessee	Texas Tech	Wisconsin
4	UCLA	Arkansas	Illinois	Providence
5	Connecticut	Houston	Iowa	Texas
6	Saint Mary’s	LSU	Alabama	Colorado St.
7	Michigan St.	Boise St.	Ohio St.	USC
8	San Diego St.	TCU	Murray St.	Creighton
9	Memphis	North Carolina	Iowa St.	Seton Hall
10	Marquette	Davidson	Loyola (Chi.)	San Francisco
11	Indiana	Miami (Fla.)	Notre Dame	Michigan
12	South Dakota St.	UAB	SMU	Wyoming	Rutgers	Virginia Tech
13	Vermont	Chattanooga	New Mexico St.	Princeton
14	Kent St.	Montana St.	Longwood	Colgate
15	Long Beach St.	Monmouth	Delaware	Jacksonville St.
16	Wright St.	Bryant	Norfolk St.	Georgia St.	Texas Southern	Texas A&M-CC

Teams That Can Steal a Bid (Alphabetical Order)

Dayton

Richmond

Saint Louis

Texas A&M

Tulane

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
North Dakota	St. Thomas	-0.9
Dartmouth	Yale	-2.2
Missouri	Tennessee	-12.5
Florida	Arkansas	-0.6
Iowa	Michigan St.	5.6
Northeastern	Charleston	-1.1
Monmouth	Siena	9.2
St. Bonaventure	Rhode Island	7.1
George Washington	Richmond	-6.4
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	2.6
Kent St.	Ball St.	9.6
Akron	Bowling Green	8.1
Miami (O)	Buffalo	-6.5
Western Michigan	Toledo	-15.3
Ohio	Central Michigan	17.6
Texas A&M	Georgia	12.2
Connecticut	Villanova	0.4
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	9.3
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	-4.4
Saint Louis	Saint Joseph’s	11.8
Northwestern	Nebraska	11.2
Kansas	Kansas St.	13.0
Vanderbilt	Alabama	-3.8
Air Force	Fresno St.	-8.7
Boise St.	San Diego St.	2.0
Cal Poly	Cal St. Bakersfield	-1.5
Utah St.	New Mexico	12.1
Nevada	UNLV	0.3

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/18/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Auburn	Arizona	Kansas
2	Baylor	Kentucky	Purdue	Villanova
3	Duke	Texas Tech	Wisconsin	Tennessee
4	Providence	UCLA	Illinois	Texas
5	Houston	Ohio St.	Alabama	LSU
6	Connecticut	Michigan St.	Arkansas	Marquette
7	USC	Xavier	Colorado St.	Saint Mary’s
8	Iowa	Murray St.	Seton Hall	Boise St.
9	Wake Forest	Iowa St.	Loyola (Chi.)	Wyoming
10	TCU	Miami (Fla.)	Indiana	San Francisco
11	Davidson	Notre Dame	Memphis	Michigan
12	North Texas	Iona	San Diego St.	Creighton	North Carolina	Oklahoma
13	Chattanooga	South Dakota St.	Ohio	Vermont
14	New Mexico St.	Wagner	Montana St.	Texas St.
15	Cleveland St.	Liberty	Yale	Colgate
16	Long Beach St.	Longwood	UNC Wilmington	Norfolk St.	New Orleans	Southern

Best of the Rest

69	Belmont
70	Oregon
71	Florida
72	BYU
73	Rutgers
74	UAB
75	SMU
76	Virginia Tech