Five Sundays from today, the NCAA Selection Committee will choose and seed the 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament. At the present time, the Bubble list has begun to emerge with greater clarity. There are about three dozen teams still competing for at-large bids, and more than half will not get into the Dance.
Some of the teams under consideration will eventually receive automatic bids when they win their conference tournaments. On the other hand, there could be a few major upsets in the power conference tournaments forcing a bubble to pierce for one of these teams.
Let’s look at the principle boiling bubbles today. We will let you decide if their resumes warrant bids or warrant bans to the NIT.
Team
|
Net
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Alabama
|
44
|
2-6
|
6-1
|
4-2
|
3-0
|
Arizona State
|
72
|
3-1
|
4-3
|
3-1
|
6-2
|
Baylor
|
32
|
3-5
|
7-1
|
1-0
|
5-2
|
Belmont
|
60
|
3-1
|
2-1
|
2-2
|
11-0
|
Butler
|
53
|
1-7
|
6-3
|
4-1
|
3-0
|
Central Florida
|
45
|
0-2
|
4-2
|
7-0
|
6-1
|
Clemson
|
39
|
2-6
|
2-2
|
5-0
|
6-0
|
Creighton
|
57
|
2-9
|
3-2
|
4-0
|
3-0
|
Davidson
|
68
|
0-2
|
3-1
|
6-3
|
8-0
|
Florida
|
42
|
1-9
|
3-1
|
3-1
|
5-0
|
Hofstra
|
51
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
4-1
|
16-0
|
Indiana
|
49
|
4-8
|
2-3
|
1-0
|
6-0
|
Lipscomb
|
30
|
2-3
|
2-1
|
2-0
|
12-0
|
Minnesota
|
58
|
3-6
|
4-2
|
4-0
|
5-0
|
New Mexico St.
|
59
|
0-1
|
2-1
|
8-2
|
9-0
|
North Carolina St
|
37
|
1-6
|
5-0
|
2-1
|
9-0
|
Ohio St.
|
36
|
4-5
|
3-2
|
4-0
|
5-0
|
Oklahoma
|
41
|
3-8
|
5-2
|
7-0
|
0-0
|
Ole Miss
|
35
|
3-7
|
3-0
|
4-0
|
6-0
|
Saint Mary’s
|
50
|
1-5
|
1-2
|
6-3
|
7-0
|
San Francisco
|
52
|
0-4
|
1-1
|
5-1
|
11-0
|
Seton Hall
|
69
|
2-6
|
7-1
|
2-2
|
3-0
|
St. John’s
|
48
|
4-4
|
4-1
|
2-2
|
8-0
|
TCU
|
33
|
1-7
|
5-0
|
7-0
|
4-0
|
Temple
|
55
|
1-5
|
5-1
|
4-1
|
7-0
|
Texas
|
34
|
4-6
|
4-4
|
3-1
|
3-0
|
Toledo
|
54
|
0-1
|
2-0
|
8-3
|
9-0
|
UNC Greensboro
|
46
|
1-3
|
1-0
|
5-0
|
13-0
|
Utah State
|
38
|
1-2
|
2-2
|
4-2
|
10-0
|
VCU
|
43
|
1-3
|
2-2
|
7-1
|
7-0
|
Wofford
|
28
|
2-4
|
3-0
|
4-0
|
9-0
|
Yale
|
62
|
0-3
|
1-0
|
5-1
|
8-0
|
Team
|
EFF.
|
SOS
|
Rd/Neut
|
Con
|
Ovr
|
Alabama
|
48
|
17
|
6-7
|
6-5
|
15-9
|
Arizona State
|
63
|
66
|
5-4
|
7-4
|
16-7
|
Baylor
|
34
|
50
|
5-4
|
7-4
|
16-8
|
Belmont
|
64
|
160
|
8-3
|
10-2
|
19-4
|
Butler
|
53
|
25
|
4-8
|
5-7
|
14-11
|
Central Florida
|
50
|
89
|
6-3
|
7-3
|
17-5
|
Clemson
|
31
|
36
|
4-6
|
5-5
|
15-8
|
Creighton
|
49
|
12
|
5-6
|
4-7
|
13-11
|
Davidson
|
75
|
106
|
7-6
|
9-2
|
18-6
|
Florida
|
38
|
29
|
5-7
|
4-6
|
12-11
|
Hofstra
|
67
|
225
|
7-4
|
11-1
|
21-4
|
Indiana
|
45
|
37
|
3-7
|
4-9
|
13-11
|
Lipscomb
|
33
|
204
|
9-3
|
11-0
|
20-4
|
Minnesota
|
56
|
51
|
5-6
|
6-7
|
16-8
|
New Mexico St.
|
54
|
134
|
9-3
|
9-1
|
20-4
|
North Carolina St
|
40
|
194
|
5-4
|
5-6
|
17-7
|
Ohio St.
|
32
|
49
|
6-3
|
6-6
|
16-7
|
Oklahoma
|
42
|
7
|
7-6
|
3-9
|
15-10
|
Ole Miss
|
39
|
63
|
7-4
|
6-4
|
16-7
|
Saint Mary’s
|
44
|
47
|
3-8
|
6-4
|
15-10
|
San Francisco
|
47
|
121
|
5-5
|
6-4
|
18-6
|
Seton Hall
|
66
|
40
|
6-6
|
5-6
|
14-9
|
St. John’s
|
52
|
57
|
7-4
|
6-6
|
18-7
|
TCU
|
37
|
20
|
6-5
|
5-6
|
17-7
|
Temple
|
76
|
56
|
8-5
|
7-4
|
17-7
|
Texas
|
28
|
3
|
4-6
|
6-6
|
14-11
|
Toledo
|
51
|
126
|
9-3
|
8-3
|
20-4
|
UNC Greensboro
|
80
|
188
|
10-2
|
11-1
|
22-3
|
Utah State
|
43
|
115
|
8-5
|
8-3
|
18-6
|
VCU
|
46
|
54
|
6-5
|
8-2
|
17-6
|
Wofford
|
30
|
133
|
8-3
|
13-0
|
21-4
|
Yale
|
72
|
123
|
7-4
|
5-1
|
15-4
|
Here’s an explanation of each column
Net: This is their official NCAA NET rating, the new and improved formula that supersedes all other, like the RPI.
Q1-Q4: These are the won-loss records for each quadrant. The Quadrants are broken up into these groups.
Quadrant #
|
Home
|
Neutral
|
Road
|
Quadrant 1
|
1-30
|
1-50
|
1-75
|
Quadrant 2
|
31-75
|
51-100
|
76-135
|
Quadrant 3
|
76-160
|
101-200
|
136-240
|
Quadrant 4
|
161-353
|
201-353
|
241-353
|
If you play the #101 team at home, this is a Quadrant 3 opponent. If you play the #101 team on their floor, this is a Quadrant 2 opponent. If you host the #50 team, it counts as Quadrant 2, but if you play that team on a neutral floor or on the road, it is a Quadrant 1 game.
EFF.: This is the ranking in total efficiency, which is offensive efficiency combined with defensive efficiency and adjusted for strength of schedule.
SOS: This is the ranking of strengths of schedule for each team. Keep in mind that the difference between #1 and #50 may be minimal, while the difference between #51 and #100 may be considerably more.
Rd/Neut: This is the combined road and neutral court won-loss records
Con and Ovr: Although not used by the Committee, this is the conference and overall won-loss records for each team for you to look at and decide for yourself if a certain team belongs in the Dance. We are not 100% convinced that committee members don’t subconsciously let this stat creep into their decision-making process. If a team finishes four games under .500 in their league while another finishes four game over .500, that four game swing is going to count for something, even if it isn’t supposed to count.
Trying To Think Like A Committee Member
Let’s look at each school on this list.
Alabama
With wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Committee might overlook losses to Northeastern and Georgia State. Two of the Tide’s non-conference losses are to probable NCAA Tournament teams Central Florida and Baylor. The Tide sits at 6-5 in the SEC and projects to a 10-8 or 11-7 final mark.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation with possibility of starting in Dayton.
Arizona St.
The Pac-12 surely cannot be limited to just one bid, can it? The Committee is not supposed to look at this metric, but this is no different than when the judge tells the jury to disregard a remark from a sustained objection in a court room. Of course, it is remembered.
Arizona State beat Kansas and Mississippi State. This past weekend, they handed Washington their first Pac-12 loss. The Sun Devils lost a close game to Nevada. They also lost at home to Princeton and recently were blown out at home by Pac-12 cellar dweller Washington State by 21 points. They also lost at SEC last place Vanderbilt by 16, and they barely beat SEC #13 Georgia.
Does the Kansas win and close loss to Nevada do enough for the Sun Devils? Their NET rating is 72, and their strength of schedule is 66. In their favor, Arizona State has a winning record away from Tempe.
Verdict: Sorry, nothing in the inbox but some ads for hotels near Madison Square Garden in late March that you probably won’t need.
Baylor
The Bears lost early in the season to some really weak teams in Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but the TSU loss may turn out to be to a future NCAA Tournament team. At 7-4 in the Big 12 with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and TCU, plus a sweep of Oklahoma, Baylor is on the inside as of now. We project Baylor to finish 10-8 in the league, and with this league’s strength, Coach Scott Drew can sleep peacefully when his team is eventually ousted in the Big 12 Tournament.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation and does not have to make travel arrangements to Dayton.
Belmont
Every year, Coach Rick Byrd has his Bruins among consideration for an NCAA Tournament bid, and this year is no different. Belmont won at UCLA and Murray State, and they swept rival Lipscomb, who is in the top 30 and also in discussion for a potential at-large bid. Among their losses is to Purdue in West Lafayette, but also among the losses are two to Jacksonville State.
We project Belmont to win out in the regular season to enter the OVC Tournament at 16-2 in the conference and 24-4 overall. The Bruins will be the mild favorite to win the automatic bid, but Murray State, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville State will have shots as well. If Belmont lost to Murray in the Championship Game and finished 26-5, the Bruins would have to be part of the at-large discussion.
Verdict: The Bruins need to win the automatic bid and then become a very game 12-seed. Too many Bubble teams have to fold for Belmont to rise up and secure an at-large bid. We believe as an automatic bid-winner and #12 seed, the Bruins are equipped with the talent and coaching to win their first tournament game after some near misses.
Butler
This Bulldogs team is not in the class with some of their recent NCAA Tournament teams. A lone Quadrant 1 win came in a neutral contest with Florida, a team which they played a second time a month later and lost by close to 40 points.
The next most impressive victory is a home win over Ole Miss. Butler’s NET rating of 53 is on the in-out line, but in their favor is a #25 strength of schedule
Verdict: We hear Dayton is lovely in March. Even if it snows several inches, you will be very happy you got to visit Southwestern Ohio. It’s an easy 2 hour drive.
Central Florida
The Golden Knights beat Alabama and Temple, and they lost to Houston. UCF should get to 10 wins in the American Athletic Conference, but the Knights need to pull off one big win to solidify their at-large standing against their peers. UCF will get that chance with games remaining with Cincinnati and Houston. A sweep of South Florida might also be impressive enough to push them over the top.
Verdict: Hanging on to a First Four bid for now
Clemson
The Tigers don’t have many great wins on their schedule. Their recent upset of Virginia Tech and an earlier win over Lipscomb are the only Quadrant 1 victories. In their favor, they are 11-0 against Q3 and Q4 combined, so their losses have been to good or great teams.
We project CU to go 8-10 in ACC play, which in most years gets an ACC team into the field, whether it is deserved or not. Clemson might need one more upset to complete their resume-building. They certainly need to hold serve against the teams beneath them in the league. A win tonight at Miami would be mighty. We think that a win at home over Florida State, North Carolina, or Syracuse would give them all the juice they need.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation and probably not one to Dayton
Creighton
The Big East is top heavy with two superior teams and a half dozen good but not great teams. At 4-7 in league play, the Blue Jays have a lot of work left to do to get onto the upper half of the Bubble.
The one thing keeping Creighton in the discussion currently is the fact that they have played 12 Quadrant 1 games so far and have a top 15 strength of schedule. However, they are only 2-10 in those games.
Creighton’s next four games are must-win games. The Blue Jays have to take care of Xavier tonight in Cincinnati and then beat Seton Hall, DePaul, and Georgetown to improve to 8-7 when they travel to Marquette in March. A 6-1 finish from here would put CU at 10-8 in the league and 19-12 overall, where an opening round win in the Big East Tournament would give the Blue Jays a strong chance to get in.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if they meet the parameters set above. As of today, we’d say their invitation would be to host a game in the NIT.
Davidson
Bob McKillop is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball. While Davidson has an exceptional history of greatness thanks to what legendary coach Lefty Driesell did 50 years ago, those were different times. Driesell recruited four or five players as good as Stephen Curry, and he brought Davidson to the top five of the rankings in 1964, 1965, 1968, and 1969. McKillop inherited a mess when he took over this program that was coming off a 24-loss season plus the transfer of their one good player. He’s now led the Wildcats for 30 seasons!
Of course, none of this means anything to the Selection Committee. Davidson’s resume is iffy at this point, and without an automatic bid, it looks like a slim possibility. Their only quality win to date is a home game victory over conference co-contender Virginia Commonwealth. This is their only win against a top 100 team, and it came at home. Unless they face VCU in the Conference Tournament, they will face just one other top 100 team the rest of the way. The stars just don’t align for the Wildcats this year.
Verdict: They better win the automatic bid or plan on playing in the NIT, CBI, or CIT
Florida
Coach Michael White is underachieving in Gainesville, and, following in the footsteps of Billy Donovan, could find his seat heating up quickly if the Gators miss out on this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Florida’s schedule is the only reason why at 4-6 in the SEC and 12-11 overall that they are still in consideration as an at-large team. The Gators are looking at 8-10 in the league and 16-15 overall. With that record, they will have to win at least three SEC Tournament games to even be in the final discussion.
Verdict: One of the biggest disappointments of the season does not receive an NCAA bid and may not receive an NIT bid either
Hofstra
Make no bones about it, Hofstra is not a real at-large candidate. However, we wanted to list the Pride here to show you their resume. At 21-4, the Pride has no Q1 or Q2 wins. They are 16-0 against Q4, and their strength of schedule ranks 225. We wanted to show them to you so you can compare them with the other Mid-major teams on this list. We could have also shown you UC-Irvine, a team in a similar boat with Hofstra, while Wofford, UNC Greensboro, Belmont, and Lipscomb have some tiny at-large hopes.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if it is automatic
Indiana
This was supposed to be a much better year in Hoosierland, and like his brother Sean, Archie Miller has come under fire. IU was supposed to contend with the Michigan schools and Purdue for the Big Ten title. Instead, the Hoosiers find themselves mired in a tenth place tie in the Big Ten at 4-9/13-11.
Indiana has the bare minimum criteria to squeak in as a fortunate bubble team. Their NET rating is just under 50, and most power league teams in the top 50 get into the field. Their strength of schedule is 37, and this is okay for any major conference team on the bubble. Their efficiency rating is also okay at 45, not great but adequate enough for a Big Ten team.
With 12 Quadrant 1 games and wins in four of those contests, the Hoosiers have proven they can compete at the top of the game. Of their seven remaining games, five are against tough opponents, and Indiana needs to win two of those five games and four overall to enter the Big Ten Tournament not needing to win three games to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid.
Verdict: At the present time, we have them as the #68 team in the field, and they would be slotted to go to Dayton, where they might have to play Butler. What a rivalry game played close enough for the fans to make the commute by car!
Lipscomb
The Atlantic Sun Conference is mid-major at best and borders on low-major status, but Florida Gulf Coast proved this league has the ability to send teams to the Sweet 16.
Lipscomb made its first NCAA Tournament appearance last year and scared North Carolina for a half. This Bisons team is better than last year, and the former NAIA superpower might be talented enough to replicate what FGCU did earlier in the decade.
Lipscomb has played five Q1 games, all on the road and won twice, once against TCU. They have no bad losses, going 14-0 against Q3 & Q4. Among their losses is a four-pointer at Louisville.
If Lipscomb beats Liberty tonight in Nashville to complete the season sweep, they will almost assuredly win out to finish 16-0/25-4 before hosting all their conference tournament games. It would take a lot to not be the automatic qualifier, but in the event they lost to Liberty in the finals, they would be 27-5 with a lot of positives on their resume.
Verdict: The Bisons are a very likely automatic qualifier, but if they were 27-5, it would take a lot of statistics-bending to exclude them from the at-large pool. However, we have faith that the Selection Committee would find ways to ship Lipscomb to the NIT in favor of the ninth place team in the ACC or 10th place team in the Big Ten or even the fifth best Big East team, or even TCU who lost at home to this Lipscomb team.
Minnesota
Richard Pitino, Saul Phillips, Murray Bartow, and Bryce Drew know what it is like to have fathers that enjoyed long, successful careers in college basketball. They also know what it is like to have their team’s fanatics wishing that those great coaches had created daughters rather than sons. Pitino is on very thin ice in Minneapolis, and the Gophers must make the Big Dance if Pitino is to stay employed in the Cities in 2020.
The Gophers are in 8th place in the Big Ten with a 16-8 record overall. This is just enough to meet the minimum for a Big Ten team. Their NET rating is 59, which is right on the line for average lowest rating that gets in. Three Quad 1 wins and a 5-6 record away from home gives the Gophers a decent shot at making the field.
Minnesota’s closing schedule could cinch their bid or kill their chances. Their more winnable games are on the road, and the tougher opponents must come to Minneapolis. Tonight’s game at Nebraska could be a bell-weather contest. A loss might open the door for another bubble team to step up and pass the Gophers.
Verdict: For now, we believe the Selection Committee would send the Gophers an Invitation and even allow them to avoid the First Four. However, a 3-4 finish to give UM a 9-11 mark in the league and 19-12 overall might put Minny on the wrong side of the Bubble if they lost their first Big Ten Tournament game. Pitino loses his job if UM misses the Dance.
New Mexico St.
New Mexico State is not getting an at-large bid, even if the Aggies win out until the WAC Championship Game and then lose to Grand Canyon or Cal St. Bakersfield by one point in overtime.
Let’s look at their resume. They lost at Kansas by three points, and that was their only Q1 game. Even had they beaten Kansas by three, their resume is too thin with just one Q1 game.
NMSU is just one spot behind Minnesota in the NET Ratings, and the Aggies are 9-3 away from Las Cruces. However, their strength of schedule rates at number 134, and we learned from the top-16 seed reveal last week just how much this year’s Committee valued strength of schedule.
Verdict: No At-large chance, but we believe this team could be 30-4 when they win the WAC’s automatic bid. Coach Chris Jans has overcome a lot of adversity to resurrect his career. NMSU will be a dangerous 12 or 13 seed.
North Carolina St.
Kevin Keatts is one of our favorite basketball coaches. We are in high regard of his ability to evaluate talent and alter his schemes to best exploit opponent weaknesses and utilize his talent. Even that embarrassing oops loss to Virginia Tech does not alter our opinion. Keatts is a Final Four coach of the future, be it here or some place else.
This Wolf Pack team is not going to advance very far in the NCAA Tournament, but they will almost definitely receive a bid based on their results so far.
When an ACC team has a top 40 NET rating, they are going dancing. NCSU is presently #39. The Wolf Pack currently has a winning record away from Raleigh.
All is not peachy though with their resume. Their Strength of Schedule is an unheard of for an ACC team #194, because they played six of the bottom 34 teams in Division 1, including the two weakest of all. State only has one Q1 win all year, a home victory over Auburn which looks less impressive now than it did then.
The Pack can easily finish the regular season on a 5-2 sprint to a 10-8 regular season conference record, which gets an ACC team an at-large bid better than 95% of the time.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation as one of the last teams in that do not play in the First Four
Ohio St.
The Buckeyes really should not be in this discussion. The only reason why we include them here is that they still need to avoid a total collapse. At 6-6/16-7, if OSU goes 3-5 down the stretch, they will get into the field.
Road wins over Cincinnati, Indiana, and Creighton are impressive enough already, but we see the Buckeyes finishing no worse than 4-4 and possibly 5-3 to make their selection quite easy.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation
Oklahoma
Can a team that is 3-9 in their conference really be in the hunt for an at-large bid? Oklahoma certainly hopes so, and thanks to the Big 12’s overall concentration of power, the Sooners do have a legitimate chance to get into the Field of 68 with a conference mark no better than 7-11.
In OU’s favor is a schedule that faced no Q4 teams and just seven Q3 teams. Oklahoma went 7-0 in those games. Their overall strength of schedule is #7, which means that a winning overall record is going to be enough to give them a chance.
Oklahoma has six games remaining prior to the league tourney, and if they go 3-3 with one of those wins coming against Kansas, and then they win their first Big 12 Tournament game, the Sooners will be in good enough shape to expect great things on March 17.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they go 3-3 plus one Big 12 Tournament win
Ole Miss
Ole Miss is 16-7, and all seven of their losses came to Q1 teams! They have three Q1 wins, including one on the road against Mississippi State.
A 35 NET rating and 39 Efficiency rating makes their resume complete. At this point, Ole Miss is competing for a 7 or 8 seed and not needing to worry about missing out on the Dance, unless they totally collapse. Coach Kermit Davis has done an incredible job in his first year in Oxford.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation
Saint Mary’s
The Gaels have received an at-large bid in the past, but they also beat Gonzaga in the past. This year, it appears out of reach, and a 11-5/22-12 final record (the best possible without beating Gonzaga, is most likely to fall short of the minimum needed criteria.
Verdict: SMC is going to have to beat Gonzaga to have any chance, and most likely, that win will have to come in the finals of the WCC Tournament, which would then give the Gaels the automatic bid and Gonzaga an at-large bid at the expense of another team on this list.
San Francisco
At one time earlier this year, USF looked like a potential at-large team. A 13-point loss at home to Gonzaga followed by losses at Saint Mary’s and San Diego, basically necessitated winning at Gonzaga to have a real chance. The Zags ran the Dons off the floor, ending USF’s at-large possibilities.
Verdict: No bid unless USF pulls off the upset and wins the West Coast Tournament Championship. We cannot see USF beating Gonzaga, but if the Dons earn the #2 or #3 seed in the conference tournament, while BYU earns the #4 seed, then the Dons could hope that the Cougars upset Gonzaga, giving them a chance to knock off BYU for the automatic bid.
Seton Hall
Seton Hall is in a similar boat to Butler and Creighton in the up and down Big East race. The Pirates have some pluses and some minuses in their quest to get a bid.
On the plus side are wins over Kentucky and Maryland, but countering those two great Q1 victories are losses at home to St. Louis and DePaul. Three of their Q1 losses were by five points or less, and they have only played seven games against Q3 & Q4 teams.
With a 69 NET Rating, the Pirates need to improve their standing in the last five weeks. The schedule is quite tough with the top two Big East teams (Villanova and Marquette) still on the schedule, and the Hall has road games with Creighton, St. John’s, and Georgetown. We expect SHU to enter the Big East Tournament at 7-11/16-14, and the Big East is not strong enough for a team with fewer than 10 conference wins or nine with a couple of conference tournament wins to get in.
Verdict: Looks like they will be disappointed on Selection Sunday without an upset of Marquette or Villanova and a 9-9 Big East record
St. John’s
St. John’s is only a half-game in front of Seton Hall, but their resume might as well be 20 games ahead. The Red Storm have played a much tougher schedule this year, and schedule strength appears to be very important, just behind NET Ratings, with the Committee. Sweeps of Marquette and Creighton with their worst loss coming against DePaul gives SJU a strong shot at making the field. Add a 7-4 record away from home, and the Red Storm would have to collapse to miss out this year.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation, probably an 8 or 9 seed
TCU
Like Ole Miss, all of TCU’s losses have come to Quadrant 1 teams. They are 16-0 against all others. A 33 NET rating and 20 Strength of Schedule Rating puts the Horned Frogs well up into the good graces of the Selection Committee.
TCU should be no worse than 9-9 in the Big 12, and when a league is as strong up and down as this one, the 9-9 team always gets into the field.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation
Temple
When a top 10 team has just one loss all year, the team that beat them gets added oomph in their resume. Temple gave Houston their only loss so far this year. The Owls lost their other five Q1 games to date.
Temple’s NET Rating is 55, which puts them on the Bubble for sure. Their Strength of Schedule is 56, which is at the bottom of the allowed SOS for an at-large team. An 8-5 record away from home (7-4 away from the City of Brotherly Love) makes their criteria smack dab in the hunt as one of the final teams in our highest teams out.
Temple can go 5-2 the rest of the regular season to finish at 12-6 in the league. With a win in the AAC Tournament, that would give the Owls at least 23 wins, and that would leave them exactly where they are now–in the middle of the discussion between teams number 67 and 70. A win at South Florida this weekend would really help.
Texas
The Longhorns have the worst record of teams that appear to be in good shape with the Selection Committee. At 6-6/14-11, UT still has work to do just to guarantee a plus .500 record. They have played the third toughest schedule in the nation, and they own wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.
Add a 34 NET Rating and 28 Efficiency Rating, and Texas only needs to get enough wins down the stretch to guarantee an at-large bid. A 9-9 Big 12 record does the trick.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation
Toledo
The PiRate Ratings are big fans of the Mid-Major conferences that have been around for decades, and the MAC is one of those leagues. Toledo was really good back in the late 1960’s when Steve Mix played for the Rockets prior to starting in the NBA. Success has been limited for Toledo on the hardwoods since then.
This Toledo team has no chance of securing an at-large bid, and with a 30-point loss to Buffalo, it is hard to see them getting revenge in the championship game of the MAC Tournament. Still, we include them in this write-up, because the MAC Tournament is always competitive, and the top-seeded team loses in it more than the average conference.
Toledo is one of three or four teams that could upset Buffalo, although this year’s Buffalo team has all the tools to sweep the regular season and conference tournament. However, if Buffalo loses, then obviously another team must win the automatic bid, while Buffalo bursts a Bubble for another team as a certain at-large team.
A 9-3 record away from home makes this a dangerous team in Cleveland. Toledo will waltz into Cleveland as the number one seed from the West Division, so Buffalo will have to beat two others before the Rockets will have to glare at the Bulls in a possible title game.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation only bid winning automatic bid, but Buffalo still gets in if they lose the MAC Tournament
UNC Greensboro
This is a team no favorite from a power conference will want to see in a potential Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game. UNCG is a tough matchup, and the Spartans have a unique style that is hard to prepare for on a couple day’s notice.
With a 46 NET Rating, UNCG is worthy of an at-large bid if they were to win out all the way to the Socon Championship Game and lose a close one to Wofford. The Spartans are 10-2 away from Greensboro, but their issue is a schedule that is rated 188 (which is still ahead of North Carolina State).
If UNCG is to earn enough respect to be in the at-large pool, the Spartans must win their two big games this week. They play at Furman tonight, and then meet Wofford in Spartanburg Saturday. If UNCG wins out but loses in the SoCon Championship Game, they will be 30-4 and in the mix for one of the last four bids.
Utah St.
With a 38 NET Rating and 43 Efficiency Rating, Utah State should be in the almost safe range for an at-large bid, but the Aggies are still on the outside looking in thanks to a strength of schedule rated 115. Utah State has seven regular season games left, and if they win out, they will enter the MWC Tournament at 15-3/25-6. Most importantly, if they win out, it will mean the Aggies beat Nevada. The boys from Reno come to Logan on March 2. USU almost has to win that game to have any serious at-large chances, but they also have a chance to win the automatic bid in the tough Mountain West. Nevada won the MWC last year and failed to make the tournament title game as the number one seed, so history could repeat.
Verdict: We believe the Aggies deserve an at-large bid as of today, and for now we will give the Selection Committee the benefit of the doubt in realizing that they deserve to be in
Virginia Commonwealth
At the current time, we actually have VCU as the likely automatic bid winner from the Atlantic 10, ahead of Davidson, but we included the Rams here to show you how close they are to qualifying as an at-large team.
VCU has a 43 NET Rating, 54 Strength of Schedule, and 46 Efficiency Rating. This is already better than some of the other teams thought to be among the last four in and first four out. They have a 6-5 record away from home and won at Texas. They suffered narrow losses to Virginia and St. John’s.
We project VCU to finish 15-3 in the A-10 and 24-7 overall in the regular season. If they lose in the conference tournament and finish 26-8, the Rams will be in the mix for an at-large bid.
Verdict: We believe VCU has the best chance of winning the A-10 Tournament and the automatic bid, but if they lose in the Championship Game, the Rams still have a chance depending on how many Power Conferences have major upsets or if teams like Buffalo and Nevada lose in their conference tournaments
Wofford
If we told you that an anonymous team was ranked 28 in the NET Ratings with the number 30 Efficiency Rating, and with a 20-point road win at the number four team in the SEC, and with four losses all year to North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma, you might reply that Auburn or Texas Tech will obviously make the NCAA Tournament, guessing from the information given that one of these two teams must be that anonymous team.
Mention Wofford to 99% of the general college basketball fandom public, and you are very likely to hear such fanatic tell you that they will be another one of those first round 25-point losers to some Big Ten team.
Wofford and UNC Greensboro both probably belong in the NCAA Tourmament. Unfortunately, one of these two are likely to be team number 69, 70, 71, or 72.
Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they earn the automatic bid
Yale
There has never been an at-large Ivy League team, and there isn’t going to be one this year, even if Yale is probably better than a couple of teams seriously on the Bubble.
The Bulldogs’ best win is a neutral court victory over Miami of Florida. Their resume won’t get them an at-large bid. We project the Bulldogs to go 12-2 in the Ivy League to earn the top seed in the four-team tournament. We also project Yale to win the Tournament to finish 24-5, where they will earn no better than a 13 seed and possible a 14 seed. At 13, there are multiple potential 4 seeds that could be uspet by this Yale team.