PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 13

There are a bevy of interesting games with something on the line this week. Playoff games are on the line, bowl eligibility is on the line, and a few coaching jobs are on the line as Rivalry Week returns.
If you are a fan of a 5-6 team this week, you better hope that they win, because there is 0.01% chance or 1 in 10,000 that a bowl will have to take a team that is worse than 6-6. As of today, 71 teams are now bowl eligible. Three games this week will pit teams with identical 5-6 records, so three more are guaranteed to become bowl eligible, bringing the total to 74. There needs to be four more teams that will need one more win, and there are an additional 16 teams that have a chance to do so. The chances that 13 of these 16 teams lose their final game are less than the chances of the San Diego Padres facing the Chicago White Sox in the 2019 World Series.
Below, we take another look at each conference so you can determine which games you want to watch this week, or if you’d rather go shopping on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. You really should spend a few bucks with a locally owned small business this Saturday. We recommend our favorite jewelry artist, Marjorie Miller of Marjorie Miller Designs right here in the Music City at Beautiful Gifts for Her

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	-6.5	-6.0	-6.2
Miami (O)	Ball St.	17.9	17.6	20.4

 

Thursday	November 22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Colorado St.	14.7	14.6	15.4
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	-17.4	-16.1	-18.1

 

Friday	November 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Akron	19.3	19.6	20.6
Cincinnati	East Carolina	17.8	19.3	18.3
Kent St.	Eastern Michigan	-14.7	-15.2	-15.4
Bowling Green	Buffalo	-13.3	-14.5	-14.3
Iowa	Nebraska	17.0	16.3	17.2
Kansas	Texas	-13.8	-13.8	-14.7
Missouri	Arkansas	24.8	25.6	26.8
South Alabama	Coastal Carolina	-0.3	-1.0	-0.6
Toledo	Central Michigan	19.6	18.8	19.5
South Florida	Central Florida	-21.0	-20.0	-21.5
Oregon St.	Oregon	-20.9	-22.8	-22.4
Memphis	Houston	3.1	3.9	3.7
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-0.6	-2.1	-1.0
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-1.0	-0.7	-1.4
Washington St.	Washington	-1.6	-0.4	-2.1

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	6.0	5.0	5.5
Connecticut	Temple	-30.1	-29.9	-31.6
Louisville	Kentucky	-21.4	-20.6	-22.4
Clemson	South Carolina	28.8	27.6	30.1
Michigan St.	Rutgers	29.0	28.0	29.5
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-12.2	-12.3	-12.7
Florida Int’l.	Marshall	-2.1	-1.1	-2.5
Boston College	Syracuse	7.6	6.8	8.0
Ohio St.	Michigan	-3.5	-4.2	-4.3
Northwestern	Illinois	24.9	23.8	26.2
Georgia	Georgia Tech	15.5	14.1	17.1
Duke	Wake Forest	11.7	11.5	12.8
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.3	13.3	14.3
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	-11.6	-11.6	-11.2
Louisiana Tech	Western Kentucky	12.4	11.6	12.4
Rice	Old Dominion	-13.1	-13.6	-14.0
UTEP	Southern Miss.	-13.3	-13.4	-14.0
Liberty	New Mexico St.	11.0	8.6	11.4
Boise St.	Utah St.	3.9	2.2	3.1
Utah	BYU	17.8	15.8	17.6
Appalachian St.	Troy	9.5	10.1	9.6
New Mexico	Wyoming	-8.5	-7.9	-9.0
Middle Tennessee	UAB	-2.1	-2.6	-1.8
California	Colorado	12.9	10.6	12.8
UCLA	Stanford	-11.9	-10.1	-13.9
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	4.3	3.6	4.8
TCU	Oklahoma St.	-2.2	-2.1	-3.7
Florida St.	Florida	-4.9	-4.5	-6.4
Penn St.	Maryland	16.1	14.9	16.3
Baylor	Texas Tech	-7.0	-7.3	-6.2
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	36.9	35.3	37.9
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	11.8	11.5	12.3
Texas A&M	LSU	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7
Indiana	Purdue	-6.6	-6.0	-6.4
Tulane	Navy	6.9	5.5	6.9
UL-Monroe	Louisiana	5.3	3.7	4.6
Tulsa	SMU	-2.9	-2.9	-2.3
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	20.3	19.1	19.9
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	-13.8	-12.8	-15.0
UTSA	North Texas	-22.5	-20.9	-22.5
USC	Notre Dame	-17.3	-16.7	-17.8
Alabama	Auburn	25.4	24.8	25.5
UNLV	Nevada	-13.3	-12.5	-13.4
San Diego St.	Hawaii	20.3	18.8	21.5
Arizona	Arizona St.	-7.2	-7.3	-6.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9
4	Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3
5	Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9
6	Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3
7	Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9
8	Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8
9	Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9
10	Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6
11	L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9
12	Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2
13	Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2
14	West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8
15	Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7
16	Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6
17	Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4
18	Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3
19	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2
20	Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1
21	Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0
22	Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8
23	Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7
24	Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6
25	Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3
26	Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2
27	Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1
28	N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8
29	Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4
30	S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4
31	Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3
32	Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3
33	Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1
34	Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9
35	Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8
36	Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6
37	Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0
38	Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9
39	Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8
40	Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5
41	Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3
42	Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2
43	Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9
44	California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6
45	Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1
46	U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6
47	Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1
48	T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6
49	Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2
50	Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8
51	Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7
52	Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6
53	Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6
54	Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6
55	Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5
56	Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4
57	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
58	Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4
59	Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9
60	Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5
61	Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4
62	Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3
63	BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1
64	Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1
65	Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0
66	Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8
67	N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9
68	Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8
69	U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6
70	Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6
71	U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3
72	Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1
73	Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5
74	Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1
75	Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0
76	N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7
77	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
78	Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2
79	San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0
80	Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9
81	Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8
82	Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4
83	Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2
84	Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1
85	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
86	Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4
87	Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6
88	SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4
89	Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4
90	Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5
91	Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3
92	South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0
94	Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9
95	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7
96	Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3
97	Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2
98	Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0
99	Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9
100	Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9
101	Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2
102	Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0
103	UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0
104	Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9
105	East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5
106	Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2
107	New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5
108	Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0
109	Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9
110	Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3
111	W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7
112	Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5
113	U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3
116	Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8
117	Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7
118	Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5
119	Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0
121	San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0
122	Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0
123	Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8
124	Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1
125	South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9
126	U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8
127	N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6
128	Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6
129	U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6
130	Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2	7-0	10-0
Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2	6-1	7-4
Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5	5-2	9-2
South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9	3-4	7-4
East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5	1-6	3-7
Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6	0-7	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5	4-3	7-4
Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9	5-2	8-3
SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4	4-3	5-6
Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4	4-3	5-6
Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2	1-6	2-9
Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0	2-5	3-8
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	8-0	11-0
Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0	4-3	7-4
N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8	4-3	7-3
Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5	5-2	8-3
Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1	3-5	5-6
Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3	2-5	5-6
Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0	0-8	2-9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6	3-4	6-5
Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3	5-3	7-4
Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3	3-4	7-4
Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6	6-1	7-4
Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1	4-3	7-4
Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4	3-4	4-6
N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9	1-6	2-8
ACC Averages	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8	7-1	10-1
West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8	6-2	8-2
Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3	6-2	8-3
Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1	5-3	6-4
Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8	3-5	6-5
Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9	3-5	5-6
T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6	3-5	5-6
Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8	3-5	5-6
Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1	3-5	5-6
Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2	1-7	3-8
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9	8-0	10-1
Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9	7-1	10-1
Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4	5-3	8-3
Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7	4-4	6-5
Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6	3-5	5-6
Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0	2-6	5-6
Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9	0-8	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2	4-4	7-4
Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3	7-1	7-4
Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1	5-3	7-4
Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3	4-4	5-6
Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4	3-5	4-7
Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6	2-6	5-6
Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9	2-6	4-7
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	3-4	5-6
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	5-2	7-3
Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6	6-1	7-4
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0	6-1	8-3
Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0	2-5	4-7
W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7	1-6	2-9
Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3	3-4	4-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3	7-0	9-2
N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7	4-3	8-3
Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3	5-2	7-4
Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2	3-4	5-5
U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8	2-5	3-8
U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6	1-6	1-10
Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4	0-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9	x	11-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1	x	6-5
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-8
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7	5-2	7-4
Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1	6-1	9-2
Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8	5-2	5-6
Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9	2-5	4-6
Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5	2-5	3-8
Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1	4-3	6-5
Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0	6-1	7-4
Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1	4-3	6-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3	4-3	6-5
Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3	0-7	1-10
Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7	3-4	4-7
MAC Averages	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9	6-1	9-2
Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8	7-0	10-1
Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2	2-5	4-7
Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4	3-4	5-6
New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5	1-6	3-8
Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3	2-5	3-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2	6-1	9-2
San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0	4-3	7-4
Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4	5-2	7-4
U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9	1-6	3-8
Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8	4-3	7-5
San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0	1-6	1-10
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9	6-2	8-3
Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6	7-1	10-1
Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1	4-3	6-4
Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2	4-4	7-4
California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6	3-4	6-4
Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2	1-7	2-9
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7	6-3	8-3
Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9	4-4	6-5
U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6	4-5	5-6
Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4	4-4	5-6
U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6	3-5	3-8
Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5	2-6	5-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3	7-1	10-1
Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6	3-4	7-4
Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4	5-3	8-3
S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4	4-4	6-4
Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0	5-3	8-3
Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6	2-5	5-6
Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8	2-5	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0	7-0	11-0
Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3	3-4	7-4
L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9	5-2	9-2
Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2	3-4	7-4
Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8	4-3	7-4
Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6	1-6	5-6
Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9	0-7	2-9
SEC Averages	114.4	113.2	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8	6-1	8-2
Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5	7-0	9-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7	5-2	8-3
Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0	2-5	5-6
Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9	4-3	7-4
UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0	4-3	6-5
Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9	4-3	6-5
Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1	1-6	3-8
South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9	1-6	2-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.2	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
5	PAC12	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	IND	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
8	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
9	MAC	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

Group of 5 Teams Still in Running for NY6 Bowl

1. Central Florida
2. Utah St.
3. Boise St.
4. Fresno St.
5. Army

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	San Diego St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Arizona]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	[Eastern Michigan]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Syracuse	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Texas Tech
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Miami (Fla.)
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Central Florida
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Standard

American Athletic
UCF vs. USF: Central Florida easily disposed of Cincinnati, and now they must end the regular season with a swooning South Florida team that looks all out of kilter. USF was 7-0 and has now lost four consecutive games. The Bulls play one good half and one bad half in nearly every game, and if this repeats itself, UCF should win by more than 20 points. However, we suspect USF will play its best game of the year, so this game could be closer than expected, especially if USF’s better half is the first half.

Time: Friday, 4:00 PM
TV: ESPN

Memphis vs. Houston: The West Division race is still up for grabs, and it will go to the winner of the Houston-Memphis game at the Liberty Bowl. Houston may have a little bit of dissension after some issues on the sidelines against Tulane last week. Memphis is playing its best ball of the season, and the Tigers enjoy a modicum of home field advantage. This game could have some head coaching implications. Major Applewhite is not a huge favorite in Houston, and a loss plus a bowl loss could put his job in jeopardy. On the other side, Memphis coach Mike Norvell could be on the short list of multiple Power 5 Conference jobs.
Time: Friday, 12:00 PM
TV: ABC

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Tulane vs. Navy, 12 Noon on ESPNU
SMU vs. Tulsa, 3:30 PM on CBSSN

Atlantic Coast
Clemson will play Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game, but there are other reasons to watch the Tigers this week. CU plays rival South Carolina, and this should give us all a chance to see Trevor Lawrence face a tough SEC defense. Somewhere down the road, Clemson might play for a National Championship against an even better SEC defense. In limited action earlier this year Lawrence was 5 of 9 for 99 yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M. South Carolina became bowl eligible against Chattanooga last night, and the Gamecocks added a late replacement game for their hurricane cancellation. They now play Akron next week, so there is a chance to get to 8-4 if they can pull off the big upset in this game. At 8-4, they could move up over Missouri and Auburn in the bowl pecking order.  Clemson vs. South Carolina

Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: ESPN

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida State vs. Florida, 12 PM on ABC
Wake Forest vs. Duke, 12:30 PM on ACCn

Big 12
This conference has multiple games of importance in both the Playoff and bowl picture. Let’s start by explaining how the Conference Championship Game looks.

Oklahoma leads Texas and West Virginia by one game in the standings, but the Sooners have not clinched a spot in the Championship Game. Oklahoma plays at West Virginia this week. Texas visits Kansas.

If Oklahoma wins, they are the #1 seed, and West Virginia falls to 6-3 in the league. If Texas then beats Kansas, it will be a rematch of the Red River Rivalry in Arlington, Texas, as the Longhorns will be 7-2.

If West Virginia beats Oklahoma, and Texas beats Kansas, then the Sooners are eliminated, while West Virginia and Texas play in the title game.

If Texas loses to Kansas in a monumental upset, then no matter what happens in the OU-WVU game, the two will play again the next week for the Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma needs to beat West Virginia and Texas and hope for Northwestern to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game to have any chance at making the Playoffs. There is a minor chance that they could get in if Notre Dame lays an egg at the Coliseum against USC this week, but the way the Trojans are playing, don’t bet on it.

There are three more important games in the Big 12 this week.  Texas Tech plays Baylor at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The winner earns a bowl bid, while the loser plays again next September. If the loser is Texas Tech, there’s a good chance that somebody other than Kliff KIngsbury will be coaching the Red Raiders in 2019. His job is not totally secure unless TTU wins this game and the bowl game.
Oklahoma State is bowl eligible thanks to the upset over West Virginia. The Cowboys close the season against TCU, and the 5-6 Horned Frogs need a win to become bowl eligible. TCU had several near misses, but their defense looked strong in stopping Baylor Saturday.
Kansas State might be playing its final game under the direction of legendary coach Bill Snyder. At 79, there’s a chance that Snyder will retire for good after this season. Kansas State is 5-6 and faces a tough finishing game against Iowa State in Ames. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell might also be leading his Cyclones on the field for the last time. He could easily be gobbled up by a bigger school looking to hire a new coach. Should Urban Meyer step down at Ohio State, a lot of insiders believe that Campbell would be on a very short list in Columbus.

Big 12 Key Game Schedule
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Time: Friday, 8 PM
TV; ESPN

Texas vs. Kansas
Time: Friday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Time: Saturday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.
Time: Saturday, 8 PM
TV: Fox

Kansas St. vs. Iowa St.
Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: FS1

 

Big Ten
Michigan vs. Ohio State: It’s all about the big rivalry game at the Giant Horseshoe. Michigan and Ohio State will meet for the annual grudge match, and the winner wins the East and stays in contention for the Playoffs. The loser most likely would get the consolation prize of a Rose Bowl game. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, which means they are zero for their last eight. In that span, they lose their most important game prior to this one, when they fell by a field goal in 2006. Expect a hard-fought effort on both sides, and the winner just may come out of this game at somewhat less than 100%, giving Northwestern a bit more chance to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Fox

Indiana and Purdue face off in Bloomington in a bowl qualification/elimination game. These may be the two best 5-6 teams in the nation, and the winner will be a tough 6-6 bowl team. Purdue may be playing with some distractions, as it appears as if Coach Jeff Brohm is halfway out the door and headed south to his Alma Mater in Louisville.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe must fall in the favor of Minnesota against Wisconsin if the Golden Gophers are to nab the Big Ten’s ninth bowl bid. UM is 5-6 and extremely inconsistent, sometimes in the same half of games. Wisconsin is coming in for a landing with a stalled engine, so this game should be close and relatively low scoring.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

Maryland has not won a game since D.J. Durkin was officially re-instated and then fired. The Terrapins were 5-3 and looking like a bowl team before the news hit. They have dropped three games in a row and must win at Penn State to become bowl eligible. Penn State is winning on fumes in November. The Nittany Lions’ offense has disappeared. Still, PSU looks like a prohibitive favorite in this game, and they actually still hold a remote chance of earning the final New Year’s Six Bowl bid. A win would almost guarantee them no worse than the Citrus or Outback Bowl games on New Year’s Day. Maryland vs. Penn St.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

Conference USA
CUSA lost any chance of sending a team to the Peach Bowl when UAB coughed up the ball too many times and lost at Texas A&M after coming out even in total yardage. The Blazers have clinched a berth in the CUSA Championship Game, and their contest at Middle Tennessee this week will still be important, because the East Division race is still to be decided. If Middle beats UAB, and Marshall beats Florida International, then Middle and UAB would play again next week in the CUSA Championship Game. If FIU beats Marshall and UAB beats Middle Tennessee, then FIU wins the East Division race.

Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
Time: 3PM, Saturday
TV: Online only at ESPN3

Florida International vs. Marshall
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Stadium and Facebook

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte
Time: Saturday, 6PM
TV: Stadium

Southern Mississippi vs. UTEP
Time: 3 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Independents
Notre Dame can become the first team to secure a spot in the Playoffs by topping USC in Los Angeles. USC will be playing for bowl eligibility as well as Coach Clay Helton’s job security. There might be a couple of NFL head coaches, including former coach Pete Carroll interested in taking the job if it becomes available, but we tend to believe Dino Babers might be the answer if this job opens up. As for the Irish, they are peaking at the right time. A double-digit win should leave Notre Dame in the 3-slot with a trip to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson the most likely scenario.  Notre Dame vs. USC

Time: 8 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

 

Mid-American
The MAC Championship Game will pit Buffalo and Northern Illinois unless the unthinkable happens, and the Bulls lose to a weak Bowling Green team. Should Buffalo lose, then Miami of Ohio has a chance to do the unthinkable for the second time in three years if they beat Ball St. Miami began 2016 at 0-6 and then won six games in a row to come from last to first and make a bowl game. This year the Red Hawks were 1-4 and then 3-6 before winning back-to-back games over favored Ohio and Northern Illinois teams. Ohio can only win the division if Buffalo and Miami both lose.
In the West, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan all have six wins and are bowl eligible, but there is little chance that all three will be invited to bowls. At least one of these three will miss out, so, it is important to get that seventh win this week.

Key MAC Games Schedule

Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPNU

Miami (O) vs. Ball St.
Time: 7PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPN+

Ohio U vs. Akron
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: CBSSN
Note: Akron is technically still in the running for bowl eligibility at 4-6, but the Zips must beat Ohio and then South Carolina, so we have eliminated them from the bowl team possibles.

Eastern Michigan vs. Kent St.
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online

Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Time: 7 PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPNU

Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online
Mountain West
Fresno State clinched a spot in the conference championship game and will face the winner of the Boise State-Utah State game. Utah State is playing for more than just a spot in the MWC Championship Game. They are the team on-deck should Central Florida fall to USF or in the AAC Championship Game. The Aggies could sneak into the Fiesta Bowl with wins over Boise State and Fresno State and a loss by UCF.

Boise State-Utah St.
Time: 10:15 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN

Wyoming is 5-6 and needs a win over New Mexico to become bowl eligible. Even at 6-6, the Cowboys have only a slim chance to earn a bowl bid.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: MWCn
Pac-12
Both division races will be decided this week. In the North Division race, it comes down to the Apple Cup game between Washington and Washington St. Washington State has not won the Apple Cup since Mike Leach’s first year in the Palouse. UW has won the last five years by better than three touchdowns per game. An impressive win over Washington combined with a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game could bring the Playoffs into view for WSU if Northwestern won the Big Ten Championship Game and Oklahoma did not win the Big 12 Championship.  Washington State vs. Washington

Time: 8:30 PM, Friday
TV: Fox

The South Division comes down to Utah or Arizona State. Utah has already finished their conference slate, and their game against BYU is strictly for bragging rights in the Beehive State. The Arizona State-Arizona game is the important one. If the Sun Devils win, then Coach Herm Edwards will force all those pundits to eat crow when they called his hiring a farce. ASU would win the South with a win over their rival. Arizona has a lot to play for as well. The Wildcats are 5-6 and must win to become bowl eligible, where they most likely would be shipped east as an at-large team for a bowl needing to fill a spot.

Arizona-Arizona State
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: FS1

Colorado was 5-0, and now the Buffaloes are 5-6. Coach Mike MacIntyre is on a hot seat in snowy Boulder, and CU must venture to smoky Berkeley to face a hot Cal team that got an unexpected week off last week. CU better hope that Cal is looking forward to the Stanford makeup game the following week and overlooks the Buffs, because CU hasn’t got much left in the tank at this point.  Colorado vs. California

Time: 7PM, Saturday
TV: Pac-12
Southeastern
Alabama and Georgia will meet in the next chapter of greatness in the SEC Championship Game next week, but both teams must not overlook their arch-rivals this week, both of whom come into this game in peak performance.

Alabama should have little problem with Auburn, but the Tide showed some vulnerabilities that Auburn, and then Georgia, and possibly Clemson can attack. By saying “vulnerabilities,” we refer to something similar to the 1927 New York Yankees being a little weak at third base with Jumping Joe Dugan. Auburn last beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 2010, but that team has Cam Newton at quarterback and still only won by a point.

Alabama vs. Auburn
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: CBS

Georgia cannot afford a loss to Georgia Tech, as the Bulldogs might not make the playoffs even if they subsequently beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Tech has made a big turnaround since starting the season 1-3. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall has a chance to reach 1,000 rushing yards with a good game here and another in the bowl game.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: SECn

Vanderbilt and Tennessee face off in Nashville with a bowl game going to the winner and the end of the line coming for the loser. Tennessee needs quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to return from a head and neck injury suffered Saturday against Missouri. Guarantano is worth more than a touchdown to the Vols compared to backup Keller Chryst. The Vols also have concerns at wideout where Marquez Callaway also was injured against Missouri. Vanderbilt has some injury concerns at quarterback as well, but it is their number two guy that will probably miss this game. Should anything happen to Kyle Shurmur, then the Commodores would be forced to put a true freshman with zero game experience into the most important game of their season. Vandy coach Derek Mason could receive some feelers from other job openings if he can guide the Commodores to their second bowl in three years. He was courted by California last year, and a possible opening or two in the Pac-12 could attract him.  Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Time: 4 PM, Saturday
TV: SECn

Sun Belt
Half of the league still holds SBC Championship Game aspirations. In the East, Troy plays Appalachian State, and the winner takes the division title and hosts the inaugural SBC Championship Game. The Mountaineers host this game and have not lost a conference game at home in more than three years. These two teams did not play each other last year when they tied for first, and the last two times they played, the games came down to the final minute.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

The West Division is currently log-jammed with three teams tied for first at 4-3. Louisiana holds the trump card in this three-way race. If the Ragin’ Cajuns defeat rival UL-Monroe, they will win the division title and play in the league title game. If UL-Monroe beats Louisiana, then Arkansas State would get in if the Red Wolves beat Texas State. If UL-Monroe wins and Arkansas State loses, then the Warhawks would win the division title outright.
Louisiana vs. UL-Monroe
Time: 3 PM ,Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Time: 4PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN3

 

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PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 13
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ball St.	Western Michigan	-6.3	-6.0	-7.9

 

Wednesday	November 14
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Buffalo	2.1	1.2	1.5
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)	7.1	6.5	5.4

 

Thursday	November 15
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kent St.	Toledo	-16.5	-16.7	-16.3
Houston	Tulane	7.4	7.4	7.7
North Texas	Florida Atlantic	2.4	3.4	2.2

 

Friday	November 16
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	Memphis	-4.4	-6.0	-5.8
New Mexico	Boise St.	-23.1	-21.5	-23.7

 

Saturday	November 17
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Michigan	Indiana	32.8	32.7	33.6
Wake Forest	Pittsburgh	-2.5	-3.8	-4.1
Illinois	Iowa	-21.0	-19.7	-21.9
Purdue	Wisconsin	0.9	1.9	1.6
Georgia Tech	Virginia	11.6	10.6	12.2
Minnesota	Northwestern	-8.4	-8.0	-9.0
Clemson	Duke	30.1	29.6	31.6
Rutgers	Penn St.	-28.1	-26.4	-29.3
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	-4.8	-4.7	-4.7
East Carolina	Connecticut	12.7	12.1	13.2
Temple	South Florida	15.3	14.1	16.7
Georgia	Massachusetts	51.8	47.9	52.7
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	-9.6	-8.7	-9.3
Tennessee	Missouri	-13.0	-11.1	-14.3
Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	20.3	17.1	19.2
Maryland	Ohio St.	-16.4	-16.0	-17.4
Louisville	North Carolina St.	-17.1	-16.9	-17.7
Central Florida	Cincinnati	15.6	14.0	15.1
Auburn	Liberty	36.4	35.5	37.3
Charlotte	Florida Int’l.	-8.6	-9.9	-8.5
BYU	New Mexico St.	31.1	29.9	31.9
Wyoming	Air Force	1.2	0.5	0.1
Colorado	Utah	-13.2	-11.5	-13.3
Colorado St.	Utah St.	-26.3	-27.1	-28.0
Notre Dame	Syracuse	16.2	14.9	15.9
Appalachian St.	Georgia St.	24.7	24.7	26.1
Marshall	UTSA	24.9	23.6	25.7
California	Stanford	-5.0	-4.8	-5.2
Oregon	Arizona St.	1.6	2.8	2.5
Washington St.	Arizona	13.2	13.5	12.6
San Jose St.	Nevada	-15.4	-14.7	-17.0
Baylor	TCU	-1.4	-1.5	0.3
Navy	Tulsa	1.1	3.5	0.8
Texas A&M	UAB	18.6	14.6	17.9
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	23.4	23.7	25.2
Oklahoma St.	West Virginia	-5.4	-6.2	-4.9
Southern Miss.	Louisiana Tech	-4.1	-3.0	-4.4
Akron	Bowling Green	9.8	10.2	9.5
LSU	Rice	54.4	50.8	56.2
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	2.5	3.2	2.6
Florida St.	Boston College	-8.5	-7.6	-9.4
Oklahoma	Kansas	27.7	27.9	29.4
Washington	Oregon St.	38.8	38.8	40.7
Arkansas St.	UL-Monroe	4.8	5.6	5.7
Troy	Texas St.	22.1	20.9	23.6
Louisiana	South Alabama	12.1	12.8	13.4
Virginia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	-3.6	-3.2	-3.5
Western Kentucky	UTEP	8.4	8.3	9.0
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-11.1	-10.1	-11.5
Texas	Iowa St.	2.2	2.2	1.8
UCLA	USC	-7.4	-6.3	-8.6
Fresno St.	San Diego St.	20.1	19.7	20.3
Hawaii	UNLV	1.8	2.5	0.5

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Florida	Idaho	33.0
Alabama	Citadel	58.2
Army	Colgate	21.2
Old Dominion	VMI	20.9
North Carolina	Western Carolina	25.6
South Carolina	Chattanooga	36.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.0	128.8	130.7	129.8
4	Georgia	129.0	126.5	130.2	128.5
5	Notre Dame	125.2	122.7	124.3	124.0
6	Ohio St.	123.2	121.3	123.2	122.6
7	Oklahoma	122.1	120.8	122.2	121.7
8	Washington	121.3	119.2	121.9	120.8
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	118.7	117.8	119.5	118.7
11	Missouri	118.3	116.9	119.3	118.1
12	West Virginia	118.2	117.3	117.6	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.3	115.7	118.1	117.4
14	Michigan St.	116.6	114.5	116.1	115.8
15	Boston College	116.3	114.1	116.1	115.5
16	Auburn	115.4	114.1	116.7	115.4
17	Utah	115.6	114.0	116.0	115.2
18	Iowa	115.5	113.6	115.1	114.7
19	Iowa State	114.6	113.1	114.4	114.0
20	Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9
21	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
22	Central Florida	113.7	113.9	113.8	113.8
23	Washington St.	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
24	Fresno St.	113.6	113.1	114.0	113.6
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.6	114.2	113.6
26	Texas	113.8	112.3	113.3	113.1
27	Utah St.	111.2	112.7	112.5	112.1
28	Miami	112.8	111.1	111.9	112.0
29	Florida	111.8	110.1	112.3	111.4
30	Syracuse	111.9	110.8	111.4	111.4
31	Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3
32	Northwestern	111.7	110.1	111.7	111.2
33	Wisconsin	112.1	109.5	111.2	110.9
34	S. Carolina	111.5	110.3	111.0	110.9
35	Kentucky	110.7	109.4	110.6	110.2
36	Boise St.	110.3	109.8	110.4	110.2
37	N. Carolina St.	110.5	109.7	109.9	110.0
38	Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9
39	Texas Tech	110.5	109.1	109.5	109.7
40	Purdue	110.0	108.4	109.8	109.4
41	Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2
42	Oklahoma St.	109.8	108.1	109.7	109.2
43	Pittsburgh	109.1	108.6	108.9	108.9
44	California	108.1	106.0	108.1	107.4
45	U S C	108.0	106.4	107.2	107.2
46	Virginia Tech	106.2	104.9	105.4	105.5
47	Virginia	105.7	105.8	104.9	105.5
48	Temple	104.1	104.3	105.0	104.5
49	T C U	105.4	103.9	103.6	104.3
50	Florida St.	104.8	103.6	103.8	104.0
51	Vanderbilt	103.6	103.6	103.9	103.7
52	Arizona	104.1	102.7	104.4	103.7
53	Army	103.3	104.0	103.5	103.6
54	Ole Miss	103.6	103.0	103.8	103.4
55	Memphis	102.3	103.6	103.1	103.0
56	Wake Forest	104.2	102.3	102.4	102.9
57	Maryland	103.7	102.3	102.8	102.9
58	Tennessee	102.3	102.7	101.9	102.3
59	Kansas St.	102.8	101.4	101.7	102.0
60	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
61	Nebraska	102.6	101.4	101.7	101.9
62	Buffalo	100.5	102.5	101.8	101.6
63	Baylor	102.0	100.4	101.8	101.4
64	BYU	100.4	101.0	101.1	100.8
65	Houston	100.2	100.7	100.4	100.4
66	Ohio U	99.5	100.7	100.4	100.2
67	N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9
68	Indiana	100.2	99.1	100.0	99.8
69	Minnesota	100.4	99.1	99.7	99.7
70	Appalachian St.	98.5	100.4	100.1	99.6
71	Colorado	99.4	99.6	99.7	99.6
72	U A B	98.3	101.0	99.3	99.6
73	Northern Illinois	98.6	99.6	99.0	99.1
74	Arkansas	100.1	97.8	99.2	99.0
75	U C L A	99.1	98.6	97.1	98.2
76	Toledo	97.4	98.7	97.2	97.8
77	N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7
78	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
79	Nevada	96.6	96.8	97.0	96.8
80	Air Force	96.3	97.1	97.0	96.8
81	San Diego St.	96.5	96.5	96.8	96.6
82	Kansas	97.4	95.9	95.8	96.4
83	Tulane	95.8	96.3	95.7	95.9
84	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.7	95.7	95.9
85	Miami (O)	94.4	96.2	96.6	95.7
86	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
87	Wyoming	95.0	95.1	94.6	94.9
88	SMU	95.0	94.6	94.3	94.6
89	Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.3	94.4	94.4
90	Troy	92.6	94.0	94.3	93.6
91	Louisiana Tech	91.8	93.8	92.5	92.7
92	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
93	Illinois	92.0	91.4	90.7	91.4
94	Florida Int’l.	89.7	93.4	90.4	91.2
95	Arkansas St.	89.4	90.9	90.9	90.4
96	Louisville	90.9	90.3	89.7	90.3
97	Tulsa	90.0	89.6	90.0	89.9
98	Western Michigan	88.7	90.3	89.7	89.6
99	Georgia Southern	88.8	90.4	89.2	89.5
100	Navy	88.1	90.0	87.8	88.7
101	Akron	87.9	88.9	87.6	88.2
102	UL-Monroe	87.0	87.7	87.8	87.5
103	Rutgers	87.7	86.7	86.3	86.9
104	Southern Miss.	85.6	88.7	86.0	86.8
105	New Mexico	84.7	85.8	84.2	84.9
106	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
107	Louisiana	82.8	85.1	84.3	84.1
108	East Carolina	83.8	83.7	83.5	83.7
109	Old Dominion	82.2	85.4	82.1	83.3
110	U N L V	81.9	82.8	82.1	82.3
111	Colorado St.	82.0	82.6	81.5	82.0
112	Liberty	82.0	81.5	82.4	82.0
113	Central Michigan	80.3	82.4	80.5	81.1
114	Massachusetts	80.2	81.6	80.5	80.8
115	Hawaii	80.2	81.8	79.1	80.4
116	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.3	80.4
117	Bowling Green	80.1	80.7	80.1	80.3
118	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
119	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
120	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
121	San Jose St.	78.7	79.6	77.5	78.6
122	Coastal Carolina	77.2	79.7	77.9	78.3
123	Georgia St.	76.3	78.1	76.4	76.9
124	U T E P	73.1	76.2	73.1	74.1
125	Connecticut	74.1	74.6	73.3	74.0
126	Texas State	73.0	75.6	73.2	73.9
127	South Alabama	73.2	74.8	73.3	73.8
128	U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8
129	N. Mexico St.	72.3	74.1	72.2	72.9
130	Rice	67.3	70.0	66.3	67.9

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.7	113.9	113.8	113.8	6-0	9-0
Temple	104.1	104.3	105.0	104.5	5-1	6-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	5-1	9-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-3	7-3
East Carolina	83.8	83.7	83.5	83.7	0-6	2-7
Connecticut	74.1	74.6	73.3	74.0	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	102.3	103.6	103.1	103.0	3-3	6-4
Houston	100.2	100.7	100.4	100.4	4-2	7-3
Tulane	95.8	96.3	95.7	95.9	4-2	5-5
SMU	95.0	94.6	94.3	94.6	4-2	5-5
Tulsa	90.0	89.6	90.0	89.9	1-5	2-8
Navy	88.1	90.0	87.8	88.7	1-5	2-8
AAC Averages	95.0	95.6	95.0	95.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	7-0	10-0
Boston College	116.3	114.1	116.1	115.5	4-2	7-3
Syracuse	111.9	110.8	111.4	111.4	5-2	8-2
N. Carolina St.	110.5	109.7	109.9	110.0	3-3	6-3
Florida St.	104.8	103.6	103.8	104.0	2-5	4-6
Wake Forest	104.2	102.3	102.4	102.9	2-4	5-5
Louisville	90.9	90.3	89.7	90.3	0-7	2-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9	4-3	6-4
Miami	112.8	111.1	111.9	112.0	2-4	5-5
Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3	3-3	7-3
Pittsburgh	109.1	108.6	108.9	108.9	5-1	6-4
Virginia Tech	106.2	104.9	105.4	105.5	3-3	4-5
Virginia	105.7	105.8	104.9	105.5	4-2	7-3
N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9	1-6	1-8
ACC Averages	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.1	120.8	122.2	121.7	6-1	9-1
West Virginia	118.2	117.3	117.6	117.7	6-1	8-1
Iowa State	114.6	113.1	114.4	114.0	5-2	6-3
Texas	113.8	112.3	113.3	113.1	5-2	7-3
Texas Tech	110.5	109.1	109.5	109.7	3-4	5-5
Oklahoma St.	109.8	108.1	109.7	109.2	2-5	5-5
T C U	105.4	103.9	103.6	104.3	2-5	4-6
Kansas St.	102.8	101.4	101.7	102.0	2-5	4-6
Baylor	102.0	100.4	101.8	101.4	3-4	5-5
Kansas	97.4	95.9	95.8	96.4	1-6	3-7
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.0	128.8	130.7	129.8	7-0	9-1
Ohio St.	123.2	121.3	123.2	122.6	6-1	9-1
Penn St.	118.3	115.7	118.1	117.4	4-3	7-3
Michigan St.	116.6	114.5	116.1	115.8	5-3	6-4
Maryland	103.7	102.3	102.8	102.9	3-4	5-5
Indiana	100.2	99.1	100.0	99.8	2-5	5-5
Rutgers	87.7	86.7	86.3	86.9	0-7	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	115.5	113.6	115.1	114.7	3-4	6-4
Northwestern	111.7	110.1	111.7	111.2	6-1	6-4
Wisconsin	112.1	109.5	111.2	110.9	4-3	6-4
Purdue	110.0	108.4	109.8	109.4	4-3	5-5
Nebraska	102.6	101.4	101.7	101.9	2-5	3-7
Minnesota	100.4	99.1	99.7	99.7	2-5	5-5
Illinois	92.0	91.4	90.7	91.4	2-5	4-6
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	3-3	5-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	4-2	6-3
Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.3	94.4	94.4	6-1	7-3
Florida Int’l.	89.7	93.4	90.4	91.2	5-1	7-3
Old Dominion	82.2	85.4	82.1	83.3	2-5	3-7
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-3	4-6
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	98.3	101.0	99.3	99.6	7-0	9-1
N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7	3-3	7-3
Louisiana Tech	91.8	93.8	92.5	92.7	5-1	7-3
Southern Miss.	85.6	88.7	86.0	86.8	2-4	3-6
U T E P	73.1	76.2	73.1	74.1	1-5	1-9
U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8	2-4	3-7
Rice	67.3	70.0	66.3	67.9	0-7	1-10
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	125.2	122.7	124.3	124.0	x	10-0
Army	103.3	104.0	103.5	103.6	x	8-2
BYU	100.4	101.0	101.1	100.8	x	5-5
Liberty	82.0	81.5	82.4	82.0	x	4-5
Massachusetts	80.2	81.6	80.5	80.8	x	4-7
N. Mexico St.	72.3	74.1	72.2	72.9	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.9	94.1	94.0	94.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	100.5	102.5	101.8	101.6	6-0	9-1
Ohio U	99.5	100.7	100.4	100.2	4-2	6-4
Miami (O)	94.4	96.2	96.6	95.7	4-2	4-6
Akron	87.9	88.9	87.6	88.2	2-4	4-5
Bowling Green	80.1	80.7	80.1	80.3	1-5	2-8
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-5	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Northern Illinois	98.6	99.6	99.0	99.1	6-0	7-3
Toledo	97.4	98.7	97.2	97.8	3-3	5-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.7	95.7	95.9	4-3	6-5
Western Michigan	88.7	90.3	89.7	89.6	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	80.3	82.4	80.5	81.1	0-7	1-10
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.3	80.4	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.2	112.7	112.5	112.1	6-0	9-1
Boise St.	110.3	109.8	110.4	110.2	5-1	8-2
Air Force	96.3	97.1	97.0	96.8	2-4	4-6
Wyoming	95.0	95.1	94.6	94.9	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.7	85.8	84.2	84.9	1-5	3-7
Colorado St.	82.0	82.6	81.5	82.0	2-4	3-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	113.6	113.1	114.0	113.6	5-1	8-2
Nevada	96.6	96.8	97.0	96.8	4-2	6-4
San Diego St.	96.5	96.5	96.8	96.6	4-2	7-3
U N L V	81.9	82.8	82.1	82.3	1-5	3-7
Hawaii	80.2	81.8	79.1	80.4	3-3	6-5
San Jose St.	78.7	79.6	77.5	78.6	1-5	1-9
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.3	119.2	121.9	120.8	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	4-3	6-4
Washington St.	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	6-1	9-1
Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2	3-4	6-4
California	108.1	106.0	108.1	107.4	3-4	6-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-6	2-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.6	114.0	116.0	115.2	5-3	7-3
Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9	4-3	6-4
U S C	108.0	106.4	107.2	107.2	4-4	5-5
Arizona	104.1	102.7	104.4	103.7	4-3	5-5
Colorado	99.4	99.6	99.7	99.6	2-5	5-5
U C L A	99.1	98.6	97.1	98.2	2-5	2-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.1	107.3	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	129.0	126.5	130.2	128.5	7-1	9-1
Missouri	118.3	116.9	119.3	118.1	2-4	6-4
Florida	111.8	110.1	112.3	111.4	5-3	7-3
S. Carolina	111.5	110.3	111.0	110.9	4-4	5-4
Kentucky	110.7	109.4	110.6	110.2	5-3	7-3
Vanderbilt	103.6	103.6	103.9	103.7	1-5	4-6
Tennessee	102.3	102.7	101.9	102.3	2-4	5-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	7-0	10-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-4	6-4
L S U	118.7	117.8	119.5	118.7	5-2	8-2
Auburn	115.4	114.1	116.7	115.4	3-4	6-4
Texas A&M	113.9	112.6	114.2	113.6	4-3	6-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.0	103.8	103.4	1-5	5-5
Arkansas	100.1	97.8	99.2	99.0	0-6	2-8
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.5	100.4	100.1	99.6	5-1	7-2
Troy	92.6	94.0	94.3	93.6	6-0	8-2
Georgia Southern	88.8	90.4	89.2	89.5	4-2	7-3
Coastal Carolina	77.2	79.7	77.9	78.3	2-4	5-5
Georgia St.	76.3	78.1	76.4	76.9	1-5	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.4	90.9	90.9	90.4	3-3	6-4
UL-Monroe	87.0	87.7	87.8	87.5	4-2	6-4
Louisiana	82.8	85.1	84.3	84.1	3-3	5-5
Texas State	73.0	75.6	73.2	73.9	1-5	3-7
South Alabama	73.2	74.8	73.3	73.8	1-5	2-8
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

PiRate Ratings of the Conferences

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.5	106.1	107.3	106.9
6	AAC	95.0	95.6	95.0	95.2
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.9	94.1	94.0	94.0
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Utah State
3. Cincinnati
4. UAB
5. Army

 

Bowl and Playoff Projections

With two weeks remaining in the regular season plus a weekend of conference championship games, most of the conference races are getting quite interesting. The good news for the bowls this year is that there is now about a one in one hundred thousand chance that a team with a losing record will be needed. Actually, chances are maybe 98% that there will be bowl eligible teams that do not receive bowl bids, even some teams with seven and eight wins.

As we project the bowl and playoff bids today, we believe six bowl eligible teams will be left out of the bowl picture. There are already 64 bowl eligible teams with close to 20 more needing just one more win. Let’s take a look at each conference and show you where they stand today and where we think they will finish.

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic
Both division races have interesting key games this weekend. In the East, Central Florida hosts Cincinnati. If the Golden Knights win to remain undefeated, they will clinch the East Division title. However, if one-loss Cincinnati pulls off the win, and Temple beats South Florida, then there will be a three-way tie for first with one game to go. All three have very winnable final games, so at 7-1, there would be a tiebreaker involved, and Cincinnati would get the nod several layers down in the tie-breaking procedure.

Houston looked like a cinch to win the West Division until back-to-back losses to SMU and Temple knocked the Cougars into a three-way tie with SMU and surprising Tulane. Tulane and Houston square off in Houston this weekend, while SMU plays tough Memphis. This race will come down to the last weekend, and SMU has the advantage as of today.

Already Bowl Eligible: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Temple, South Florida, Houston, and Memphis

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Tulane and SMU

 

Conference USA
This league will fall shy of the number of bowl eligible teams compared to last year, but there will still be seven conference teams available for the seven bowl tie-ins the league has this year.

The East Division is down to a three-team race between Florida International, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. Middle currently leads FIU by a half-game in the standings, but the Blue Raiders close with a home game against the top team in the league in UAB. FIU beat Middle and holds the tie-breaker edge, but the Panthers must still beat Marshall.

There is a chance that the three contenders will all finish 6-2, if UAB beats Middle, and Marshall beats FIU. Should that happen, Middle Tennessee would win the tie-breaker well down the procedure list.

UAB has already clinched the West Division championship, but the Blazers have something more to play for. It is a long shot, but if UAB could pull off the big upset at Texas A&M,then win at Middle Tennessee, and then win the CUSA Championship Game, the Blazers could be in the mix for a Peach Bowl bid should Central Florida lose to somebody other than Cincinnati and both Utah State and Boise State lose another game. The Blazers would be 12-1 in this situation.

Already Bowl Eligible: Florida International, Middle Tennessee, Marshall, UAB, North Texas, and Louisiana Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Florida Atlantic
Independents
We don’t count Notre Dame in this section, because the Irish are classified with the Power Five conferences. Army is already bowl eligible and will definitely get an at-large bid to a bowl. BYU needs one more win, and the Cougars face a weak New Mexico State team this week, so they should get that win. They are also guaranteed an at-large bid to a bowl that ESPN sponsors.

Liberty will most likely finish 6-6, but the Flames are ineligible in their transition year in FBS. There is a loophole for Liberty to become bowl eligible if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, but as we said before, there will be most likely six bowl eligible teams more than needed this year.

Already Bowl Eligible: Army

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: BYU (& Liberty in reserve)

 

Mid-American
The two MAC races are basically sewn up with two weeks to go. Buffalo has a two-game lead over Ohio U in the East, and even if the Bulls lose at Ohio this week, they would also have to lose against lowly Bowling Green next week, while Ohio then beats Akron. We don’t see Buffalo finishing 0-2, and the Bulls have a better chance to finish 2-0 and stay alive in the New Year’s 6 Bowl race.

Northern Illinois is in the same boat as Buffalo in the West Division race. The Huskies lead Western Michigan by two games, and even though NIU and WMU face off in the regular season finale, the only way that game will determine the division title is if NIU loses at home to Miami of Ohio this week and WMU wins at Ball St. Miami is trying to sneak into bowl eligibility and needs wins over NIU and Ball State, but we don’t see the Red Hawks competing with the Huskies this week.

Already Bowl Eligible: Buffalo, Ohio U, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Toledo

 

Mountain West
Both races are still undecided with two week to go. Boise State’s big win over Fresno State gave the Broncos a big boost, for if they win out against New Mexico in Albuquerque and Utah State on the Blue Field, then Boise takes the Mountain Division crown.
Utah State plays at Colorado State in a game that mean nothing toward the Mountain Division race, but it means everything if the Aggies want to sneak into the Fiesta Bowl as the Group of 5 representative. If USU beats CSU and then knocks off Boise in Boise, the Aggies would enter the MWC Championship Game needing a win and a UCF loss to earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.

In the West Division, Fresno State is still in control of the race, but the Bulldogs have been exposed with questionable offensive and defensive lines. San Diego State and Nevada are just one game back with two to go, and SDSU and Fresno play this weekend in Fresno. Should the Aztecs recover from a late swoon and pull off the upset, then there could be a three-way tie for first at 6-2. Fresno State would win the tie-breaker.

Already Bowl Eligible: Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and San Diego State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Hawaii and Wyoming

 

Sun Belt
Technically, three teams are still alive in the East Division, as Troy is 6-0, Appalachian State is 5-1, and Georgia Southern is 4-2. However, Troy hosts a very weak Texas State team this week, and a Trojan win eliminates GSU. The regular season finale sends Troy to Appy State, and the winner of that game will win the division title.

The West Division race is also a three-team affair, but the three teams all have legitimate chances of capturing the flag. UL-Monroe leads Louisiana and Arkansas State by a game, but they conclude the regular season playing both contenders–Arkanasas State in Jonesboro and Louisiana in Monroe. Obviously, If ULM wins both games, they win the division title. If they lose one of the two games, then the team that beats them will win the division title if they also win their other game. Louisiana’s other game is a home game with South Alabama, while Arky State plays at Texas State. If both Arky State and Louisiana beat ULM, then Louisiana wins the division.

Already Bowl Eligible: Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Monroe, and Arkansas St.

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Coastal Carolina and Louisiana

 

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Can anybody in this league beat Clemson that still might play the Tigers this year? Duke and South Carolina are not likely candidates, so it figures that CU will enter the ACC Championship Game at 12-0. Who the Tigers will play is still a question with two weeks to go.

After losing to a North Carolina team that has not won another game this year, Pittsburgh did not look like a bowl eligible team at all. The Panthers were 2-3 with two lopsided losses (Penn State and Central Florida). A 3-9 record looked possible at that point, because the back end of the schedule looked brutal. After an upset of Syracuse and a near miss loss at Notre Dame, Pitt was still 3-4 and not looking like they would find three more wins on their schedule. Consecutive wins over Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, have placed the Panthers into first place in the Coastal Division with two games to go. Both games are on the road but winnable against mediocre teams. The problem for the Panthers is that both Wake Forest and Miami are fighting for bowl eligibility, and it would not surprise us if one of the two knock the Panthers off their perch. Pittsburgh will still win the division if they split their final two games, but should the unthinkable happen, and they lose both games, then it throws this division race into a mad world.
Virginia would have a chance to win the division, but the Cavaliers play their final two games on the road against a fast-closing Georgia Tech, and a Virginia Tech team that might be 5-5 and needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech all have three conference losses, but the chances that any of the three can win the division are quite remote. And, in the end, who really wants to get drubbed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game?

Already Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Miami

 

Big 12
This is another interesting race with four teams contending for the two Championship Game bids. Oklahoma (6-1) and West Virginia (6-1) control their own destiny, but since they still must play each other, at least one of these two teams might no longer control their destiny.

Iowa State (5-2) would sneak into the Big 12 Championship Game, should they beat Texas and Kansas State and Oklahoma beats West Virginia. Texas (5-2) would be the second team if the Longhorns beat Iowa State and Kansas and West Virginia beats Oklahoma.
Should West Virginia lose at Oklahoma State this week and then beat Oklahoma, then there could be a three-way tie at 7-2, with one of the teams eliminated. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Texas finish tied in this scenario, Texas and Oklahoma would play for the Big 12 Championship. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Iowa State finish tied in this scenario, then Iowa State and West Virginia would play for the title.

Already Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, and Iowa State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and  Baylor

 

Big Ten
The East race is down to the same two teams that have always competed for the Big Ten title. Michigan faces Ohio State in Columbus in two weeks, and the winner will face Northwestern for the Big Ten Championship.
Obviously, the Wolverines are playing for a lot more than just the league title. Wins over Indiana, Ohio State, and Northwestern will clinch a spot in the Playoffs. Ohio State has a minimal chance of making the playoffs by closing out with wins over Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern can win the Rose Bowl bid by upsetting either team in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Already Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota

Pac-12
The North Division race will be determined in the Palouse when the Washington Huskies visit Washington State for the Apple Cup. Stanford has been eliminated by virtue of losing to both Olympic State teams.
The South Division is still quite chaotic. Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah have three conference losses, while USC has four. Arizona State is the current tiebreaker leader by virtue of a win over Utah, while Utah drubbed Arizona and holds second place today. However, Arizona has not played Arizona State, and should the Wildcats beat the Sun Devils, and there is a multiple way tie at 5-4 with three or four teams, the possibilities are not endless, but they seem to appear that way. USC is not in the race, even if they finish in a first place tie. In the event of a tie at 5-4 between Arizona State, Arizona, USC, and Utah, the Utes win the tiebreaker. In another scenario, if Colorado beats Utah, Oregon beats Arizona State, and then Arizona State beats Arizona, then Arizona State wins the division at 5-4 no matter what USC does.
Already Bowl Eligible: Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, Utah, and Arizona State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: USC and Arizona

 

Southeastern
This is a race that is already determined. Alabama and Georgia will play in the SEC Championship Game no matter what they do the rest of the season. We expect they will both win out. Georgia finishes with two non-conference opponents. They can name the score with UMass, and they should be able to slow down the Georgia Tech option game and run over the Techsters to finish 11-1. Alabama could score 100 points this week against The Citadel if Nick Saban was Barry Switzer or Bill Yeoman, but we expect a possible 56-0 halftime score to lead to a 77-0 win at most. Then, Alabama should handle Auburn in Tuscaloosa to finish 12-0.
Georgia would have to win the SEC Championship to get into the Playoffs unless a lot of nearly impossible events leave a trail of two loss teams in the wake. If the Bulldogs upset the Tide, then most likely Georgia would move up to number two and Alabama would fall to number three, leaving Michigan in a bind.

Already Bowl Eligible: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Auburn

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: South Carolina and Tennessee

Here are this week’s playoff and bowl projections.

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Middle Tennessee
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Missouri
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Indiana	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Minnesota
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	North Carolina St.	Tennessee
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	LSU
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Duke
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Purdue	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Kentucky
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Utah
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

FBS Playoff Projections

Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Kent St.	22.1	23.1	23.3

 

Wednesday	November 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Ohio U	-3.7	-3.3	-2.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.2	-0.1	0.5

 

Thursday	November 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	11.7	13.2	13.5

 

Friday	November 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	Louisville	22.9	22.1	23.2
Boise St.	Fresno St.	-2.0	-2.3	-2.9

 

Saturday	November 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Temple	1.8	2.5	1.5
Rutgers	Michigan	-40.1	-39.9	-42.5
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-1.4	-0.6	-0.8
Boston College	Clemson	-19.6	-19.4	-20.6
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	13.3	12.4	13.2
Tennessee	Kentucky	-13.0	-11.2	-13.3
Massachusetts	BYU	-16.5	-15.3	-16.5
Virginia	Liberty	26.1	26.9	25.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	1.2	1.6	0.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	15.8	16.1	16.0
Central Florida	Navy	30.0	28.3	30.8
West Virginia	TCU	10.6	11.0	11.6
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	4.3	5.0	5.0
Kansas St.	Kansas	7.3	7.4	8.1
Eastern Michigan	Akron	7.4	7.7	7.8
Indiana	Maryland	-1.4	-1.1	-0.7
Connecticut	SMU	-18.9	-18.4	-19.5
Duke	North Carolina	13.9	12.9	13.7
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	16.1	16.7	16.7
Iowa	Northwestern	9.0	9.0	8.9
Cincinnati	South Florida	12.9	13.2	13.9
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	-6.5	-5.4	-7.2
Tulane	East Carolina	15.3	16.1	15.9
Utah	Oregon	9.7	8.1	9.5
Colorado	Washington St.	-9.1	-7.5	-8.2
Marshall	Charlotte	18.1	18.4	18.4
Old Dominion	North Texas	-15.6	-14.6	-16.5
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	8.0	10.0	8.5
Nevada	Colorado St.	12.8	12.2	13.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	32.1	31.9	33.6
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-17.5	-16.1	-18.8
Georgia	Auburn	15.9	14.6	15.6
Penn St.	Wisconsin	8.8	8.8	9.5
Alabama	Mississippi St.	24.1	24.3	24.7
Air Force	New Mexico	14.2	13.7	14.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	19.1	17.4	20.0
Nebraska	Illinois	12.8	12.0	12.8
Minnesota	Purdue	-14.2	-13.9	-14.7
Memphis	Tulsa	12.6	14.5	13.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.1	2.4	4.3
USC	California	3.9	4.5	3.1
Texas Tech	Texas	1.2	1.5	1.0
Arkansas	LSU	-16.4	-18.2	-18.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	35.3	35.7	38.0
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-20.3	-22.5
Louisiana	Georgia St.	9.0	9.2	10.1
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	20.9	19.3	20.9
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	-7.7	-6.4	-8.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	28.6	27.9	30.9
UTSA	Florida Int’l.	-10.3	-9.9	-10.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	21.8	20.2	21.6
UAB	Southern Miss.	17.2	16.8	17.8
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
Arizona St.	UCLA	16.3	15.5	18.6
San Diego St.	UNLV	22.7	21.7	23.1

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0
4	Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4
5	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
6	Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7
7	Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0
8	Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2
11	Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8
12	Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
14	Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9
15	Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6
17	Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3
18	West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0
19	Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6
20	Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4
21	Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2
22	Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0
23	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
24	Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5
26	Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2
27	Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5
28	Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3
29	Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1
30	Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0
31	N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9
32	Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6
33	Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3
34	Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1
35	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
36	Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0
37	Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8
38	Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5
39	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
40	Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2
41	Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0
42	Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0
43	Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2
44	U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7
45	T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9
46	California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9
47	Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1
49	Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
50	Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6
51	Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4
54	Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0
55	Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8
56	Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2
57	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
58	Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
59	Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8
60	Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4
61	Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2
62	Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1
64	BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6
65	U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6
66	Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5
67	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4
68	Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7
69	N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
71	N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5
72	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
74	Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5
75	Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5
76	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
77	U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0
78	Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9
79	Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5
80	Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4
81	Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1
82	Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9
83	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
84	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4
85	SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0
86	Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6
87	Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6
88	Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5
89	Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3
90	Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6
91	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
92	Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9
93	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
94	Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2
95	Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0
96	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5
98	Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4
99	Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0
100	Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8
101	Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9
102	Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7
103	Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8
104	UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6
105	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
106	Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5
107	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
108	Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1
109	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
110	East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2
111	Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7
112	Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5
113	Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0
114	Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5
115	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
116	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
117	Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2
118	Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1
119	U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0
120	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
121	San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7
122	Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8
123	Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3
124	U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3
125	South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7
126	Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8
127	U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0
128	Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6
129	N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6
130	Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6	5-0	8-0
Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8	4-1	5-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	4-1	8-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-2	7-2
East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-5	2-6
Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9	2-3	5-4
Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8	4-1	7-2
Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4	3-2	4-5
SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0	3-2	4-5
Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0	1-4	2-7
Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9	1-4	2-7
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	6-0	9-0
Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8	4-1	7-2
N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9	2-2	6-2
Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0	4-2	7-2
Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7	2-5	4-5
Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1	1-4	4-5
Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2	0-6	2-7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	3-3	5-4
Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1	2-3	5-4
Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6	2-3	6-3
Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0	3-2	4-4
Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7	4-2	6-3
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1	4-1	5-4
N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6	1-5	1-7
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7	5-1	8-1
West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0	5-1	7-1
Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2	4-2	5-3
Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3	4-2	6-3
Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5	3-3	5-4
Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2	2-4	5-4
T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9	2-4	4-5
Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2	1-5	3-6
Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2	3-3	5-4
Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0	6-0	8-1
Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0	5-1	8-1
Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7	5-2	6-3
Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	3-3	6-3
Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	3-3	5-4
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7	0-6	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9	3-3	6-3
Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2	4-2	5-4
Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1	4-2	6-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-4
Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4	1-5	2-7
Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9	1-5	4-5
Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9	2-4	4-5
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	2-3	4-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	3-2	5-3
Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5	5-1	6-3
Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0	4-1	6-3
Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-5	1-8
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-2	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6	6-0	8-1
N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5	3-2	7-2
Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6	4-1	6-3
Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8	2-3	3-5
U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3	2-3	3-6
U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0	1-4	1-8
Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0	0-6	1-9
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	9-0
Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6	x	7-2
BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6	x	4-5
Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7	x	4-4
Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5	4-1	6-3
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4	5-0	8-1
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4	3-2	3-6
Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5	2-3	4-4
Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5	1-4	2-7
Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9	5-0	6-3
Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6	3-3	5-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1	0-6	1-9
Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0	5-0	8-1
Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0	4-1	7-2
Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5	1-4	3-6
Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-4	3-6
Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4	5-0	8-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	4-1	7-2
Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3	3-2	5-4
Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1	3-3	6-5
U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0	0-5	2-7
San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7	1-4	1-8
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	3-3	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5	5-1	8-1
Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2	3-3	6-3
California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9	2-4	5-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-5	2-7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3	4-3	6-3
Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8	3-3	5-4
U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7	4-3	5-4
Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4	4-3	5-5
Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2	2-4	5-4
U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0	2-4	2-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4	6-1	8-1
Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8	1-4	5-4
Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0	5-2	7-2
Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3	4-3	6-3
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	4-3	5-3
Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	6-0	9-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-3	6-3
L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2	4-2	7-2
Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6	3-3	6-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5	3-3	5-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-4	5-4
Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	4-1	6-2
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	5-0	7-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7	4-1	7-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-3	5-4
Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3	1-4	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8	2-3	5-4
UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6	3-2	5-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-3	4-5
South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7	1-4	2-7
Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8	1-4	3-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Fresno St.
3. Utah St.
4. Cincinnati
5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Houston	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	SMU	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Buffalo]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Boston College	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	UL-Monroe
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Kentucky
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	North Carolina St.	West Virginia
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Miami (O)	8.1	8.5	7.0
Bowling Green	Kent St.	2.5	1.6	2.6

 

Wednesday	October 31
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Ball St.	20.1	19.3	20.4

 

Thursday	November 1
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Ohio U	-2.0	-1.6	-1.9
Akron	Northern Illinois	-2.7	-2.4	-2.7
Central Florida	Temple	15.0	15.2	14.6

 

Friday	November 2
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia	Pittsburgh	7.3	8.3	7.2
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	16.7	15.3	17.2
Arizona	Colorado	4.9	2.6	4.4

 

Saturday	November 3
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	Houston	-9.4	-10.6	-10.8
Purdue	Iowa	-0.3	0.1	-0.2
Georgia St.	Texas St.	8.9	8.0	9.2
Wake Forest	Syracuse	-4.1	-4.7	-5.4
Kentucky	Georgia	-10.3	-8.5	-11.3
Cincinnati	Navy	9.7	9.2	10.5
Ohio St.	Nebraska	25.6	24.9	27.1
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.3	-11.6
Florida	Missouri	1.6	1.3	1.3
Miami (Fla.)	Duke	6.7	7.0	6.7
North Carolina St.	Florida St.	7.7	8.0	7.8
East Carolina	Memphis	-15.1	-16.9	-16.5
Virginia Tech	Boston College	-2.6	-1.3	-2.8
Maryland	Michigan St.	-8.6	-7.8	-8.9
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	-9.2	-9.3	-10.7
Texas	West Virginia	0.9	0.3	0.9
Wisconsin	Rutgers	30.9	29.5	32.0
Northwestern	Notre Dame	-11.5	-10.6	-10.6
Illinois	Minnesota	-8.6	-8.2	-9.4
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	13.0	12.1	13.2
Army	Air Force	12.3	12.5	12.4
South Florida	Tulane	4.7	6.1	4.3
Coastal Carolina	Appalachian St.	-16.8	-16.1	-17.6
Boise St.	BYU	13.1	12.1	12.6
New Mexico	San Diego St.	-11.5	-10.3	-12.2
Wyoming	San Jose St.	19.3	18.4	20.6
Washington St.	California	8.6	9.9	8.6
Southern Miss.	Marshall	-8.5	-8.0	-9.2
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia Southern	-7.1	-8.8	-7.6
Arizona St.	Utah	-6.8	-6.6	-7.8
Oregon	UCLA	13.4	13.6	16.3
Washington	Stanford	9.8	10.2	10.6
Kansas	Iowa St.	-12.2	-12.1	-13.9
Auburn	Texas A&M	4.6	4.8	6.2
Tennessee	Charlotte	24.9	22.8	23.9
Mississippi St.	Louisiana Tech	27.6	23.1	27.2
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	-6.6	-6.7	-6.9
Massachusetts	Liberty	1.2	3.8	1.5
TCU	Kansas St.	8.4	8.5	7.8
Tulsa	Connecticut	17.8	16.6	19.0
Clemson	Louisville	47.2	44.7	48.9
Michigan	Penn St.	9.1	10.6	9.8
Ole Miss	South Carolina	-5.0	-4.4	-4.1
Rice	UTEP	-3.6	-4.0	-4.8
Troy	Louisiana	11.7	10.8	11.9
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	13.3	12.9	14.3
UAB	UTSA	20.7	19.2	20.8
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic	-1.3	1.7	-0.8
LSU	Alabama	-17.5	-15.8	-17.5
UNLV	Fresno St.	-28.7	-26.7	-28.9
Hawaii	Utah St.	-24.1	-23.7	-26.5

Oregon St.

USC

-20.4

-21.1

-21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
New Mexico St.	Alcorn St.	10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3
2	Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1
3	Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8
4	Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7
5	Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0
6	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
7	Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9
8	Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8
9	L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4
10	Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8
11	Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6
12	Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9
13	Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5
14	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
15	Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6
17	Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9
18	Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8
19	West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8
20	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
21	Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1
22	Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9
23	Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9
24	Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4
26	Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1
27	Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0
28	Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9
29	Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7
30	Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5
31	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
32	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
33	N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7
34	Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3
35	Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2
36	Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1
37	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
38	Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6
39	Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6
40	Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6
41	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5
42	Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8
43	U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0
44	Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9
45	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
46	T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2
47	California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7
48	Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9
49	Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1
50	Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0
51	Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0
54	Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0
55	Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7
56	Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7
57	Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4
58	Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1
59	Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9
60	Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9
61	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3
62	Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3
63	Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1
64	Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0
65	BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8
66	Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8
67	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
68	N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5
69	N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2
70	Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2
71	Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1
72	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
73	Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4
74	Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2
75	U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4
76	Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2
77	Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0
78	U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8
79	Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7
80	Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0
81	Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7
82	South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5
83	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4
84	Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1
85	Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8
86	Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7
87	Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3
88	Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2
89	Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0
90	Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5
91	Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4
92	Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1
93	Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4
94	SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3
95	Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2
96	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
97	Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0
98	Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4
99	Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8
100	Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0
101	Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5
102	Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3
103	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
104	Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1
105	Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2
106	Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1
107	Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0
108	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
109	East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2
110	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6
111	U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8
112	Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5
113	Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5
114	Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5
115	Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2
116	Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2
117	W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4
118	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
119	Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4
120	Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2
121	Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1
122	U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1
123	Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8
124	San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4
125	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0
126	Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8
128	Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0
129	N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8
130	Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1	3-1	7-1
South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5	3-1	7-1
East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5	4-0	7-1
Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5	2-2	3-5
Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4	1-3	2-6
SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3	2-2	3-5
Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8	0-4	1-7
AAC Averages	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1	5-0	8-0
Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	6-2
N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7	1-2	5-2
Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6	3-2	6-2
Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9	2-4	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4	1-3	4-4
Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1	0-5	2-6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9	2-3	4-4
Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9	2-2	5-3
Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1	1-3	5-3
Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6	3-1	4-3
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	4-1	6-2
Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0	3-1	4-4
N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5	1-4	1-6
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0	4-1	7-1
West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8	4-1	6-1
Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9	3-2	4-3
Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5	4-1	6-2
Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2	3-2	5-3
Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6	2-3	5-3
T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2	1-4	3-5
Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9	1-4	3-5
Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5	4-2	5-3
Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0	3-2	5-3
Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-2	6-2
Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1	3-2	4-4
Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0	3-2	5-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-3
Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3	1-4	4-4
Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0	1-4	2-6
Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0	1-4	3-5
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7	3-1	5-2
Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3	4-1	5-3
Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2	1-3	3-5
Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0	4-0	6-2
Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4	0-4	1-7
Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8	3-2	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2	3-2	7-2
U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8	5-0	7-1
Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1	4-1	6-2
Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1	2-2	3-4
U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8	0-4	0-8
Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2	0-5	1-8
CUSA Averages	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	8-0
Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1	x	6-2
BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8	x	4-4
Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	3-6
N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8	x	2-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3	4-0	7-1
Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0	3-1	5-3
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4	3-1	3-5
Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4	2-2	4-3
Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4	2-2	4-4
Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7	2-3	4-5
Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0	4-0	5-3
Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2	4-1	6-3
Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0	0-5	1-8
Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5	2-3	3-6
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3	4-0	7-1
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5	4-1	6-2
Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7	1-4	3-5
Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8	1-4	3-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-3	3-5
Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	4-0	7-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	3-1	6-2
Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0	3-2	5-4
U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8	0-4	2-6
Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5	3-2	6-4
San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4	1-3	1-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8	4-2	6-3
Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6	3-2	5-3
Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7	4-1	7-1
Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8	2-3	5-3
California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7	2-3	5-3
Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1	1-4	2-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9	4-2	6-2
U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0	3-3	4-4
Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9	2-3	4-4
Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0	3-3	4-5
Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1	2-3	5-3
U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4	2-3	2-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8	5-1	7-1
Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7	0-4	4-4
Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8	5-1	7-1
Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1	4-2	6-2
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	3-3	4-3
Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1	1-4	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3	5-0	8-0
L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6	2-3	5-3
Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4	3-2	5-3
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	3-1	5-2
Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4	4-0	7-1
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	4-0	6-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-2	5-3
Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2	1-3	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5	1-3	4-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-2	4-4
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0	1-3	2-6
Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0	0-4	2-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
7	MWC	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
10	CUSA	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Fresno St.
3	Houston
4	Utah St.
5	Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	[California]	Utah St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Eastern Michigan]	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Coastal Carolina
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	South Florida	[Arizona]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	Middle Tennessee
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Western Michigan]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Memphis	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Maryland	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Georgia Tech	Minnesota
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Virginia Tech	Tennessee
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Troy
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	Mississippi St.
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Georgia
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Pittsburgh
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Purdue	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	South Carolina
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Kentucky	Houston
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 9

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Alabama	Troy	-11.2	-10.6	-11.9

 

Thursday	October 25
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Toledo	1.0	1.6	2.2
Ohio U	Ball St.	14.0	13.0	14.9
Georgia Southern	Appalachian St.	-8.3	-8.3	-9.2
Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech	3.9	4.1	4.0
West Virginia	Baylor	12.4	13.2	11.7

 

Friday	October 26
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Miami (Fla.)	1.5	0.3	1.4
Minnesota	Indiana	3.6	3.6	3.3
UCLA	Utah	-13.9	-12.4	-17.0
Colorado St.	Wyoming	-8.0	-7.1	-7.6
Florida Atlantic	Louisiana Tech	5.3	3.7	4.6

 

Saturday	October 27
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Old Dominion	Middle Tennessee	-6.5	-4.5	-7.7
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	-0.5	-1.6	-1.3
Virginia	North Carolina	10.4	11.6	10.3
Akron	Central Michigan	9.6	8.5	9.7
Pittsburgh	Duke	-8.1	-6.9	-8.2
Maryland	Illinois	16.4	15.5	16.5
Louisville	Wake Forest	-3.8	-1.6	-2.4
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-4.3	-3.6	-4.2
Eastern Michigan	Army	-6.0	-5.2	-5.6
Charlotte	Southern Miss.	-4.4	-5.3	-4.5
Kansas	TCU	-10.2	-10.4	-10.7
Connecticut	Massachusetts	-3.1	-4.6	-4.9
Georgia St.	Coastal Carolina	3.0	2.5	3.1
Utah St.	New Mexico	23.4	23.3	24.6
Colorado	Oregon St.	23.7	27.2	26.6
UTEP	UAB	-20.5	-19.9	-21.7
BYU	Northern Illinois	8.2	7.9	9.0
Nevada	San Diego St.	-3.7	-3.7	-4.2
Stanford	Washington St.	7.5	5.9	8.1
USC	Arizona St.	4.8	5.0	4.9
California	Washington	-13.4	-13.9	-15.0
Florida (n)	Georgia	-13.2	-11.7	-13.1
San Jose St.	UNLV	-3.9	-4.5	-5.8
Tulsa	Tulane	-0.4	-1.3	0.6
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	6.9	6.0	7.3
Missouri	Kentucky	5.0	4.5	6.4
South Carolina	Tennessee	16.3	14.7	16.4
Oklahoma St.	Texas	-1.1	-1.6	-0.9
North Texas	Rice	34.8	34.6	37.3
Houston	South Florida	10.0	9.0	10.7
Penn St.	Iowa	7.0	6.2	7.2
Michigan St.	Purdue	5.9	5.0	5.1
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	-6.4	-7.3	-6.2
SMU	Cincinnati	-2.6	-4.6	-3.8
Arkansas	Vanderbilt	2.9	0.2	1.8
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	19.6	19.7	20.8
Louisiana	Arkansas St.	-2.4	-1.6	-2.8
Texas St.	New Mexico St.	1.2	2.2	1.0
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	4.8	4.4	5.6
Air Force	Boise St.	-11.6	-10.4	-11.6
Florida St.	Clemson	-23.9	-22.0	-24.9
Notre Dame	Navy	36.6	31.7	36.0
Arizona	Oregon	-8.6	-10.2	-9.1
Fresno St.	Hawaii	35.5	33.0	37.0

 

FBS vs.	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Nebraska	Bethune-Cookman	36.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

The PiRate Ratings are predictive and not meant to rank teams on what they have done to date.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.6	140.0
2	Clemson	135.5	132.8	136.1	134.8
3	Georgia	128.1	125.0	128.9	127.3
4	Michigan	126.6	125.4	127.2	126.4
5	Notre Dame	124.8	122.0	123.8	123.5
6	Ohio St.	123.2	121.2	123.3	122.6
7	Washington	122.8	120.9	123.9	122.5
8	Oklahoma	121.2	119.9	121.5	120.9
9	Penn St.	121.0	118.4	121.0	120.1
10	L S U	119.8	119.4	121.1	120.1
11	Mississippi St.	118.4	116.1	119.0	117.9
12	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
13	Missouri	116.4	114.9	117.6	116.3
14	Utah	116.3	114.6	117.1	116.0
15	Michigan St.	116.9	114.7	116.2	116.0
16	Miami	116.2	114.8	115.7	115.6
17	Auburn	115.2	114.0	116.8	115.3
18	Wisconsin	115.9	113.4	115.4	114.9
19	Stanford	115.6	113.1	115.8	114.8
20	Florida	114.9	113.3	115.8	114.6
21	Central Florida	114.2	114.4	114.5	114.4
22	Texas A&M	114.5	113.2	114.7	114.1
23	Kentucky	114.4	113.4	114.2	114.0
24	Boston College	114.7	112.1	114.1	113.7
25	Purdue	114.1	112.7	114.1	113.6
26	Texas	113.8	112.4	113.3	113.1
27	Iowa State	113.1	111.5	112.9	112.5
28	N. Carolina St.	112.6	112.1	112.4	112.4
29	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
30	Oregon	112.2	112.0	112.8	112.3
31	Duke	112.9	110.9	112.3	112.1
32	Virginia Tech	112.5	111.5	112.1	112.0
33	West Virginia	112.7	111.7	111.8	112.0
34	S. Carolina	112.5	111.3	112.1	112.0
35	Georgia Tech	111.5	110.4	111.1	111.0
36	Washington St.	111.1	110.2	110.7	110.7
37	Texas Tech	111.3	110.1	110.4	110.6
38	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.8	109.5
39	T C U	110.3	109.1	108.9	109.4
40	Oklahoma St.	109.7	107.8	109.4	108.9
41	U S C	109.5	108.1	109.1	108.9
42	Northwestern	109.1	107.4	108.7	108.4
43	Utah St.	107.6	108.8	108.8	108.4
44	Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.1	108.3
45	Florida St.	108.6	107.8	108.2	108.2
46	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
47	Arizona St.	107.7	106.2	107.1	107.0
48	California	106.4	104.0	105.9	105.4
49	Colorado	104.3	105.3	105.4	105.0
50	Army	103.9	104.6	104.1	104.2
51	Kansas St.	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8
52	Maryland	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8
53	Houston	103.2	104.0	103.7	103.6
54	Ole Miss	103.3	102.8	103.6	103.2
55	Baylor	103.3	101.5	103.0	102.6
56	Temple	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4
57	Memphis	100.8	102.3	101.6	101.6
58	Appalachian St.	100.4	102.2	102.0	101.5
59	Pittsburgh	101.7	101.0	101.1	101.3
60	Vanderbilt	101.0	101.2	101.1	101.1
61	Wake Forest	102.3	100.1	100.1	100.8
62	BYU	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.7
63	San Diego St.	100.0	100.1	100.6	100.2
64	N. Texas	99.1	101.5	99.9	100.1
65	Arizona	100.6	98.9	100.7	100.0
66	Buffalo	99.0	101.0	100.1	100.0
67	Minnesota	100.5	99.4	100.0	100.0
68	N. Carolina	100.2	99.3	99.8	99.8
69	Arkansas	101.0	98.4	99.9	99.8
70	Nebraska	100.6	99.3	99.2	99.7
71	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
72	Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.7	99.2
73	Cincinnati	98.4	100.0	98.8	99.0
74	U C L A	99.5	99.2	97.1	98.6
75	U A B	95.7	98.3	96.6	96.9
76	South Florida	96.2	98.0	96.0	96.7
77	Marshall	95.1	97.7	96.2	96.4
78	Kansas	97.1	95.6	95.2	96.0
79	Toledo	95.5	96.7	95.3	95.8
80	Eastern Michigan	94.9	96.4	95.5	95.6
81	Florida Atlantic	95.2	96.0	95.6	95.6
82	Northern Illinois	95.2	95.9	95.0	95.4
83	Air Force	95.1	95.7	95.2	95.3
84	Louisville	95.5	95.5	94.7	95.2
85	Miami (O)	93.8	95.5	96.1	95.1
86	Ohio U	94.1	95.3	94.8	94.7
87	Western Michigan	93.5	95.2	94.5	94.4
88	Wyoming	94.5	94.5	94.1	94.3
89	Louisiana Tech	92.9	95.3	94.0	94.0
90	Nevada	93.3	93.3	93.4	93.3
91	Tulane	93.1	93.4	92.7	93.1
92	SMU	92.8	92.3	92.0	92.4
93	Middle Tennessee	91.3	92.7	92.2	92.1
94	Navy	91.2	93.3	90.7	91.8
95	Troy	90.8	92.1	92.1	91.7
96	Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.2	89.8	90.8
97	Illinois	91.3	90.7	90.2	90.7
98	Akron	90.1	91.3	90.3	90.6
99	Tulsa	90.3	89.6	90.8	90.2
100	Georgia Southern	89.1	90.9	89.8	89.9
101	Arkansas St.	87.0	88.4	88.5	88.0
102	New Mexico	87.2	88.5	87.1	87.6
103	Southern Miss.	84.4	87.6	85.0	85.7
104	Rutgers	85.9	84.8	84.2	85.0
105	Colorado St.	84.5	85.3	84.4	84.7
106	U N L V	83.4	84.8	83.7	84.0
107	Central Michigan	83.0	85.3	83.2	83.8
108	Ball St.	83.1	85.3	82.9	83.8
109	Old Dominion	82.3	85.7	82.0	83.4
110	Louisiana	82.1	84.3	83.3	83.2
111	East Carolina	83.2	82.9	82.6	82.9
112	UL-Monroe	82.0	82.3	82.4	82.3
113	Oregon St.	83.6	81.1	81.7	82.1
114	W. Kentucky	80.4	83.4	81.1	81.6
115	Liberty	81.4	80.6	81.6	81.2
116	Hawaii	81.0	82.7	79.9	81.2
117	Massachusetts	80.3	82.2	81.0	81.2
118	Georgia St.	78.9	80.8	79.5	79.7
119	Coastal Carolina	78.3	80.8	78.9	79.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.9	78.6	79.1
121	Bowling Green	78.7	79.0	78.7	78.8
122	U T S A	77.2	81.2	77.8	78.8
123	Charlotte	77.5	79.9	78.0	78.5
124	South Alabama	76.6	78.5	77.2	77.4
125	San Jose St.	77.0	77.8	75.4	76.7
126	Connecticut	75.2	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.7	75.9	72.5	73.7
128	N. Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5
129	Texas State	71.6	74.4	71.5	72.5
130	Rice	66.2	68.8	64.6	66.6

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.2	114.4	114.5	114.4	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.4	100.0	98.8	99.0	2-1	6-1
South Florida	96.2	98.0	96.0	96.7	3-0	7-0
East Carolina	83.2	82.9	82.6	82.9	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.2	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	103.2	104.0	103.7	103.6	3-0	6-1
Memphis	100.8	102.3	101.6	101.6	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.1	93.4	92.7	93.1	1-2	2-5
SMU	92.8	92.3	92.0	92.4	2-1	3-4
Navy	91.2	93.3	90.7	91.8	1-3	2-5
Tulsa	90.3	89.6	90.8	90.2	0-3	1-6
AAC Averages	95.1	95.7	95.0	95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.5	132.8	136.1	134.8	4-0	7-0
Boston College	114.7	112.1	114.1	113.7	2-1	5-2
N. Carolina St.	112.6	112.1	112.4	112.4	1-1	5-1
Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.1	108.3	2-2	5-2
Florida St.	108.6	107.8	108.2	108.2	2-3	4-3
Wake Forest	102.3	100.1	100.1	100.8	0-3	3-4
Louisville	95.5	95.5	94.7	95.2	0-4	2-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	116.2	114.8	115.7	115.6	2-1	5-2
Duke	112.9	110.9	112.3	112.1	1-2	5-2
Virginia Tech	112.5	111.5	112.1	112.0	3-0	4-2
Georgia Tech	111.5	110.4	111.1	111.0	1-3	3-4
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	3-1	5-2
Pittsburgh	101.7	101.0	101.1	101.3	2-1	3-4
N. Carolina	100.2	99.3	99.8	99.8	1-3	1-5
ACC Averages	110.1	108.9	109.5	109.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.2	119.9	121.5	120.9	3-1	6-1
Texas	113.8	112.4	113.3	113.1	4-0	6-1
Iowa State	113.1	111.5	112.9	112.5	2-2	3-3
West Virginia	112.7	111.7	111.8	112.0	3-1	5-1
Texas Tech	111.3	110.1	110.4	110.6	3-1	5-2
T C U	110.3	109.1	108.9	109.4	1-3	3-4
Oklahoma St.	109.7	107.8	109.4	108.9	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8	1-3	3-4
Baylor	103.3	101.5	103.0	102.6	2-2	4-3
Kansas	97.1	95.6	95.2	96.0	0-4	2-5
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.6	125.4	127.2	126.4	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.2	121.2	123.3	122.6	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	121.0	118.4	121.0	120.1	2-2	5-2
Michigan St.	116.9	114.7	116.2	116.0	3-2	4-3
Maryland	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8	2-2	4-3
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-4	4-4
Rutgers	85.9	84.8	84.2	85.0	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-1	6-1
Wisconsin	115.9	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	5-2
Purdue	114.1	112.7	114.1	113.6	3-1	4-3
Northwestern	109.1	107.4	108.7	108.4	4-1	4-3
Minnesota	100.5	99.4	100.0	100.0	0-4	3-4
Nebraska	100.6	99.3	99.2	99.7	1-4	1-6
Illinois	91.3	90.7	90.2	90.7	1-3	3-4
Big Ten Averages	109.0	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.1	97.7	96.2	96.4	3-1	5-2
Florida Atlantic	95.2	96.0	95.6	95.6	1-2	3-4
Middle Tennessee	91.3	92.7	92.2	92.1	3-1	4-3
Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.2	89.8	90.8	3-0	5-2
Old Dominion	82.3	85.7	82.0	83.4	1-4	2-6
W. Kentucky	80.4	83.4	81.1	81.6	0-3	1-6
Charlotte	77.5	79.9	78.0	78.5	2-2	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.1	101.5	99.9	100.1	2-2	6-2
U A B	95.7	98.3	96.6	96.9	4-0	6-1
Louisiana Tech	92.9	95.3	94.0	94.0	3-1	5-2
Southern Miss.	84.4	87.6	85.0	85.7	2-1	3-3
U T S A	77.2	81.2	77.8	78.8	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.7	75.9	72.5	73.7	0-3	0-7
Rice	66.2	68.8	64.6	66.6	0-4	1-7
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.8	122.0	123.8	123.5	x	7-0
Army	103.9	104.6	104.1	104.2	x	5-2
BYU	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.7	x	4-3
Liberty	81.4	80.6	81.6	81.2	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.3	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	2-6
N. Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5	x	2-6
Indep. Averages	93.9	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.0	101.0	100.1	100.0	4-0	7-1
Miami (O)	93.8	95.5	96.1	95.1	3-1	3-5
Ohio U	94.1	95.3	94.8	94.7	2-1	4-3
Akron	90.1	91.3	90.3	90.6	1-2	3-3
Kent St.	78.7	79.9	78.6	79.1	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	78.7	79.0	78.7	78.8	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	95.5	96.7	95.3	95.8	1-2	3-4
Eastern Michigan	94.9	96.4	95.5	95.6	2-3	4-4
Northern Illinois	95.2	95.9	95.0	95.4	4-0	4-3
Western Michigan	93.5	95.2	94.5	94.4	4-0	6-2
Central Michigan	83.0	85.3	83.2	83.8	0-4	1-7
Ball St.	83.1	85.3	82.9	83.8	2-2	3-5
MAC Averages	90.0	91.4	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.8	109.5	3-1	5-2
Utah St.	107.6	108.8	108.8	108.4	3-0	6-1
Air Force	95.1	95.7	95.2	95.3	1-3	3-4
Wyoming	94.5	94.5	94.1	94.3	0-4	2-6
New Mexico	87.2	88.5	87.1	87.6	1-2	3-4
Colorado St.	84.5	85.3	84.4	84.7	2-2	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	3-0	6-1
San Diego St.	100.0	100.1	100.6	100.2	3-0	6-1
Nevada	93.3	93.3	93.4	93.3	2-2	4-4
U N L V	83.4	84.8	83.7	84.0	0-3	2-5
Hawaii	81.0	82.7	79.9	81.2	3-1	6-3
San Jose St.	77.0	77.8	75.4	76.7	0-3	0-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.8	120.9	123.9	122.5	4-1	6-2
Stanford	115.6	113.1	115.8	114.8	3-1	5-2
Oregon	112.2	112.0	112.8	112.3	2-2	5-2
Washington St.	111.1	110.2	110.7	110.7	3-1	6-1
California	106.4	104.0	105.9	105.4	1-3	4-3
Oregon St.	83.6	81.1	81.7	82.1	0-4	1-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.3	114.6	117.1	116.0	3-2	5-2
U S C	109.5	108.1	109.1	108.9	3-2	4-3
Arizona St.	107.7	106.2	107.1	107.0	1-3	3-4
Colorado	104.3	105.3	105.4	105.0	2-2	5-2
Arizona	100.6	98.9	100.7	100.0	2-3	3-5
U C L A	99.5	99.2	97.1	98.6	2-2	2-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.1	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.1	125.0	128.9	127.3	4-1	6-1
Missouri	116.4	114.9	117.6	116.3	0-3	4-3
Florida	114.9	113.3	115.8	114.6	4-1	6-1
Kentucky	114.4	113.4	114.2	114.0	4-1	6-1
S. Carolina	112.5	111.3	112.1	112.0	2-3	3-3
Vanderbilt	101.0	101.2	101.1	101.1	0-4	3-5
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.7	99.2	1-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.6	140.0	5-0	8-0
L S U	119.8	119.4	121.1	120.1	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	118.4	116.1	119.0	117.9	1-3	4-3
Auburn	115.2	114.0	116.8	115.3	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	114.5	113.2	114.7	114.1	3-1	5-2
Ole Miss	103.3	102.8	103.6	103.2	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	101.0	98.4	99.9	99.8	0-4	2-6
SEC Averages	114.2	112.9	114.6	113.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	100.4	102.2	102.0	101.5	3-0	5-1
Troy	90.8	92.1	92.1	91.7	3-0	5-2
Georgia Southern	89.1	90.9	89.8	89.9	3-0	6-1
Georgia St.	78.9	80.8	79.5	79.7	1-2	2-5
Coastal Carolina	78.3	80.8	78.9	79.3	1-2	4-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.0	88.4	88.5	88.0	1-2	4-3
Louisiana	82.1	84.3	83.3	83.2	1-2	3-4
UL-Monroe	82.0	82.3	82.4	82.3	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.6	78.5	77.2	77.4	1-2	2-5
Texas State	71.6	74.4	71.5	72.5	0-4	1-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.7	85.5	84.5	84.6

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.2	112.9	114.6	113.9
2	ACC	110.1	108.9	109.5	109.5
3	B12	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.0	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.5	106.1	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	95.1	95.7	95.0	95.3
7	IND	93.9	94.2	94.1	94.1
8	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
9	MAC	90.0	91.4	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.7	85.5	84.5	84.6

Top 5 Group of 5

1	Central Florida
2	South Florida
3	Fresno St.
4	San Diego St.
5	Houston

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Utah St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	UL-Monroe
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	[Middle Tennessee]	[Coastal Carolina]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Colorado]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	North Texas	[BYU]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Toledo]	Indiana
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Duke	[Troy]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Utah
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Purdue	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Iowa	Fresno St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Texas
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Key Games This Week

There may not be as many marquee games this week as there were last week, but because the season is now past the halfway mark, regular games begin to have more meaning as teams with no championship hopes look to secure bowl bids.

There are a number of games where the winner might greatly improve bowl chances and that could be bowl elimination games for the loser.  Let’s take a quick look at some excellent games on this week’s schedule.

First, on Thursday night, you get five different games, and there is no World Series game, as the teams will travel across the land that day.

Thursday

Western Michigan vs. Toledo: The Broncos are now the favorite to win the West Division and maybe run the table the rest of the way, while Toledo is looking like it could be team #78 out of 78 bowl teams.  The MAC looks like it will have six bowl eligible teams, but five will only get bowl bids.  Toledo and Ohio may be competing for that fifth spot.

Ohio U vs. Ball St.: This is the other half of the MAC equation.  If the Bobcats falter in this game, then they are looking at 5-7.  It’s a must-win game for Ball St., but the schedule does not give them enough winnable games in November to recover from 3-5 to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian St.: The Sun Belt East Division title may be decided Thursday night.  After trying the more conventional style of play with total failure, GSU has gone back to what worked for them for many years–the spread triple option, and it is working.  Appy State enters this game looking like a team that still holds out hope for a Peach Bowl bid if UCF, USF, Houston, and Fresno State lose games down the stretch and they run the table.  This may be the best game of the night and one you will want to watch.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is running out of time to get to six wins with a closing stretch of games against Miami, Virginia, and Georgia.  If Paul Johnson’s team is to finish 3-2, it almost has to include an upset win here.  Virginia Tech finishes with four home games in their final five, and the Hokies have the inside track to the Coastal Division flag.

West Virginia vs. Baylor: West Virginia’s playoff chances probably ended with the loss to Iowa St., but if the Mountaineers run the table, a Sugar Bowl bid is likely their reward.  Baylor needs two wins in their final five games to return to a bowl after a brief absence, and to pull off the trick, the Bears are going to have to upset two teams, because they will be underdogs in all five games.

Friday

Boston College vs. Miami (Fla.): Both teams are still alive for the Camping World bid, but most likely, these two are competing for one of the #3 priority bowls.

Minnesota vs. Indiana: This is a pure bowl elimination game.  The winner stays alive, and the loser is done.

UCLA vs. Utah: The Bruins have won back-to-back games after starting 0-5.  It’s been done before, where a team loses multiple games to start the season and comes back to earn a bowl bid.  A couple years ago, Miami of Ohio started 0-6 and finished 6-6.  Can Chip Kelly work his magic?  If UCLA beats Utah, the Bruins would move into a first place tie in the Pac-12 South.  Of course, if Utah wins, the Utes make a big move forward toward winning the South.  Stay up late and watch this game.

Saturday

Syracuse vs. North Carolina St: After the Wolf Pack’s drubbing at the hands of Clemson, they have no room for error left in the remaining part of their schedule if they want to contend for a New Year’s Six Bowl game.  Not having the West Virginia game on their schedule, they must run the table and finish 11-1.  Syracuse is one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.  This game should be interesting.

Pittsburgh vs. Duke: Pitt has to win this game, or it’s no bowl game for the Panthers in 2018.  Duke is out of the ACC Coastal Division title race, but they need just one more win to become bowl eligible.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin: Four of the seven teams in the Big Ten West Division have one conference loss, and these are two of them.  Neither team is playing as well as predicted this year, as they tend to win ugly.  Northwestern has been forced to come from behind two weeks in a row, including their most previous game against Rutgers.  This was the closest game for the Badgers last year when they ran the table to the Big Ten Championship Game, and it should be close and low-scoring this year.

Eastern Michigan vs. Army: What?  You say this game is a nothing game?  Think again.  These are two teams that will still be playing after December 15.  Army has a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 1996.  EMU needs to win three more games to clinch its second winning season in the last three years.  Expect the scoreboard to get a lot of action in this one.

Nevada vs. San Diego St.: San Diego State barely beat winless San Jose State, while Nevada won big at Hawaii.  This game looks more like a tossup now than it did a couple weeks ago.  SDSU is still in the Mountain West West Division race with Fresno St., but the Aztecs are looking like a runner-up at the moment.

Stanford vs. Washington St.: The Pirate is not a PiRate, but Mike Leach has done an amazing job in Pullman.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Cougars, but after beating Oregon, Washington State is a co-favorite to win the Pac-12 North.  One of the other two co-favorites is their opponent Saturday, and this game will be played on the Farm, where Stanford rarely loses these days.  The winner is in great shape to become the North Division representative in the conference title game.

California vs. Washington: This is an excellent opportunity for the Bears to pick up a statement win at home.  Washington has not been the team the so-called experts thought they would be, and their chances to win the North Division title are no better than their arch-rival’s, and Stanford’s.  A Cal upset comes close to guaranteeing the Golden Bears a 6-6 season and bowl bid.

Florida vs. Georgia: The winner becomes the heavy favorite to get the chance to be embarrassed by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Both teams had an open date to prepare for this game, and both teams’ coaching staffs can prepare excellent game plans.  Expect this game to be low scoring, and the winner may not emerge until the final five to seven minutes.  The winner is the leading contender for the Sugar Bowl, while the loser could still nab a Peach Bowl bid.

Mississippi St. vs. Texas A&M: Texas A&M has lost to Clemson and Alabama, so their 5-2 record is deceiving.  Jimbo Fisher has done an incredible job in his first year at A&M, and if he can lead his team to a road victory, the Aggies might become the favorite to be number two overall in this league and even get into the discussion for a Sugar Bowl bid.

Missouri vs. Kentucky: Kentucky’s incredible 5-0 start hit a snag when the Wildcats’ one-dimensional offense could do nothing against Texas A&M.  Then, it continued to sputter against a Vanderbilt team that is 0-4 in conference play.  Missouri’s defense won’t be able to shut down the Wildcats’ offense, but they still may be able to outscore the ‘Cats and end Kentucky’s chances of winning the SEC East.  Missouri is most likely looking at a Liberty or Music City Bowl bid unless they run the table and finish 9-3.

Oklahoma St. vs. Texas: 2005 was 13 seasons ago.  That’s the last time Oklahoma State failed to earn a bowl bid or end the season with a winning record.  The Cowboys are starting to look like a man on a safari that just put his right foot in quicksand.  A loss at home to Texas will square OSU’s record at 4-4 with some tough November games and most likely a 5-7 record.  Texas now has a legitimate chance to sneak into the Playoffs if the Longhorns can run the table and finish 12-1.  After this game, the toughest remaining games would be home games.  A rematch with the Sooners or possibly with the Mountaineers could get the Longhorns into the #4 position.

Houston vs. South Florida: USF has fiddled its way to a 7-0 record, but if the Bulls start slow this week, they will be 7-1 on Sunday.  Houston is on a roll and almost for sure will win the AAC West Division title.  If they can knock off USF and then beat Central Florida in the Championship Game, the Cougars could be Fiesta-bowl bound.  A loss along the way probably keeps them in an in-state bowl in December.  If USF should put together a four-quarter effort and win this game, then the Bulls are going to gain enough confidence to knock off UCF in Tampa in the regular season finale.

Penn St. vs. Iowa: Three weeks ago, this would have been considered a cinch win for Penn St., but the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and then Michigan State.  They just barely survived a trip to Indiana.  Iowa has two big road games back-to-back starting with this one and then continuing with Purdue in West Lafayette the following week.  The Hawkeyes look like the best overall team in the Big Ten West, but it will be close to impossible for Kirk Ferentz’s team to win both of the two road games.

Michigan St. vs. Purdue: Michigan St. might play its best game of the year this week.  The team has got to be feeling quite upset after they did absolutely nothing against Michigan.  Purdue is going to bounce somewhat after pulling off the big win over Ohio State.  Just look at what happened to Iowa last year the week after they slaughtered Ohio State; Wisconsin slaughtered them.  We don’t think Sparty  can slaughter any Big Ten team remaining on their schedule, and that includes a home game with Rutgers.  But, they have just enough talent and a huge chip on their shoulders, so this game should be much closer than expected.

Louisiana vs. Arkansas St.: The Sun Belt West Division is totally up for grabs entering the last five weeks of the regular season, as four of the five teams have two conference losses.  The winner of this game takes a giant leg up on the rest of the contenders and also comes very close to cinching bowl eligibility.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Believe it or not, but both teams still have a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as the number two seed.  This is a contrast of two coaches on the rise for different reasons.  Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is moving up to the top tier of the coaching pyramid for the next big-time opening.  He could be coaching at a national power in the next couple of years.  Kliff Kingsbury was almost one foot out the door in Lubbock last month, but wins over TCU and Oklahoma State have him back on somewhat solid ground, as the Red Raiders need just one more win to clinch a bowl bid.

Air Force vs. Boise St.: The Falcons need to go 3-2 in to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is sneaky and tricky the rest of the way.  The two hardest remaining games are this one and the next one at Army.  Losses in both games means AFA would have to win their last three to become bowl eligible.  Boise State has an uphill climb to make the MWC Championship Game, as they are a game behind Utah State, and they must still play Fresno State.  A loss here gives the Mountain Division title to Utah State.

Florida St. vs. Clemson: This game has such a history, but history is probably all Florida State fans can hold onto in this game.  Clemson should win by double digits in this one, but stranger things have happened.  Clemson has lost games as big favorites the prior two years, and this looks like a trap game.  The Seminoles must upset somebody in order to become bowl eligible.

Fresno St. vs. Hawaii: This game won’t end until the wee hours of the morning on the East Coast, so a lot of the Eastern elite press will not give it much notice.  However, you can stay up and watch it on ESPN2.  Fresno State is like a horse with a great closing run that is sitting 7 lengths off the pace in a Stakes race but has been on the rail saving ground since the start.  The Bulldogs lost early at Minnesota and have a win at UCLA.  They sit at 6-1, and there isn’t an opponent left on the schedule they cannot beat.  This race is shaping up so that Jeff Tedford’s team could go 12-1.  Now, it is up to those speed horses up front to fall back to the pack.  If USF, UCF, and Houston lose another game this year and FSU wins out, then the Bulldogs should earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.  Hawaii should not give Fresno much of a challenge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 18-22, 2018

Last week was the first down week for our Land Sharps, as overall, they suffered their first cumulative loss of the season.  Overall, the five geniuses went an accumulated 11-17-1.  Dean615 did have his best record of the season, finishing 4-1, but Buckeye Michelle and Cal Gal Tiffany combined to go 1-6-1.

Don’t even ask about the PiRate Ratings.  This is our worst year making these selections since the 1990’s, and if it wasn’t for a rally on Sunday with three wins out of three, it would have been disastrous.  Of course, it isn’t really disastrous for us, because these picks are only for entertainment purposes, and thus no money was wagered.  Please take this advice and use our selections the same way.

The Land Sharps

Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 22-14-0  61.1%  18.3% ROI

Arizona St. +3 vs. Stanford

California -6.5 vs. Oregon St.

USC +7 vs. Utah

Wyoming +15.5 vs. Utah St.

Kentucky -11 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Buckeye Michelle

Season: 17-11-1  60.7%  16.9% ROI

Army -8 vs. Miami (O)

UTSA +18 vs. Southern Miss.

Wyoming +15.5 vs. Utah St.

Georgia Southern -12 vs. New Mexico St.

North Carolina St. +17 vs. Clemson

 

Dean 615

Season: 14-10-0  58.3%  12.5% ROI

Michigan St. +7.5 vs. Michigan

Purdue +13.5 vs. Ohio St.

LSU -6.5 vs. Mississippi St.

Penn St. -14 vs. Indiana

SMU +7.5 vs. Tulane

USC +7 vs. Utah

Navy +13 vs. Houston

 

Friday Dog 13

Season: 18-13-1  58.1%  11.6% ROI

Utah St. -14.5 vs. Wyoming

Ohio U -16.5 vs. Bowling Green

Central Florida -21 vs. East Carolina

Hawaii -3 vs. Nevada

LSU -6.5 vs. Mississippi St.

Iowa -9 vs. Maryland

Washington -15.5 vs. Colorado

 

Stewed Meat

Season: 19-19-0  50.0%  -5% ROI

Louisiana-Lafayette +25.5 vs. Appalachian St.

Eastern Michigan -3 vs. Ball St.

Western Michigan -4 vs. Central Michigan

Connecticut +34 vs. South Florida

Kentucky -11 vs. Vanderbilt

Marshall +3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Missouri -9 vs. Memphis

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks For October 18-22, 2018

College 10-point Teasers (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Air Force	UNLV	1	Air Force
Michigan	Michigan St.	17.5	Michigan St.
Toledo	Buffalo	10	Buffalo

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Utah St.	Wyoming	25.5	Wyoming
Clemson	North Carolina St.	27	North Carolina St.
Florida St.	Wake Forest	0.5	Florida St.

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Penn St.	Indiana	0.5	Penn St.
Memphis	Missouri	0.5	Missouri
Georgia Southern	New Mexico St.	2.5	Georgia Southern

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Mississippi St.	LSU	3.5	LSU
Central Florida	East Carolina	11	Central Florida
South Florida	Connecticut	44	Connecticut

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Louisiana-Monroe	Texas St.	0.5	Louisiana-Monroe
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	1	Kentucky
Fresno St.	New Mexico	4	Fresno St.

 

College 13-Point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Stanford	Arizona St.	10.5	Arizona St.
TCU	Oklahoma	5	Oklahoma
Miami (O)	Army	5.5	Army
Maryland	Iowa	3	Iowa

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina	Syracuse	3.5	Syracuse
Oregon St.	California	6.5	California
Oregon	Washington St.	10.5	Washington St.
Utah	USC	19.5	USC

 

College Money Line Parlays

4 Teams @ +254
Winner	Loser
Army	Miami (O)
Iowa	Maryland
Duke	Virginia
Western Michigan	Central Michigan

 

2 Teams @ +693
Winner	Loser
Minnesota	Nebraska
USC	Utah

 

NFL Picks vs. The Spread

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Arizona	2	Arizona
Tampa Bay	Cleveland	3	Cleveland
Philadelphia	Carolina	5	Carolina
Indianapolis	Buffalo	7.5	Buffalo
Baltimore	New Orleans	2.5	New Orleans

 

NFL 10-Point Teasers (3 Games at 11-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	L.A. Chargers	3.5	L.A. Chargers
Chicago	New England	7	New England
Philadelphia	Carolina	15	Carolina

 

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Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Indianapolis	Buffalo