The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 20, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:43 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Thursday

October 24

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Houston

SMU

-8.1

-7.1

-7.5

Friday

October 25

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Colorado

USC

-11.1

-12.2

-12.3

Saturday

October 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Massachusetts

Connecticut

-7.6

-9.3

-7.6

Purdue

Illinois

11.4

10.5

11.8

Army

San Jose St.

13.6

11.4

13.3

Georgia St.

Troy

-2.2

-1.3

-1.6

Clemson

Boston College

33.5

30.9

33.7

Tulsa

Memphis

-12.8

-12.0

-12.5

Toledo

Eastern Michigan

3.5

3.7

3.8

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

9.6

11.6

3.9

Temple

Central Florida

-7.0

-7.0

-6.7

Western Michigan

Bowling Green

25.8

24.9

25.5

Nebraska

Indiana

-2.1

0.0

-2.1

Buffalo

Central Michigan

5.9

5.6

6.0

Northwestern

Iowa

-9.7

-8.8

-10.7

East Carolina

South Florida

-2.0

-1.2

-2.0

Florida St.

Syracuse

3.0

3.9

3.4

Rutgers

Liberty

-2.4

-4.2

-3.9

Rice

Southern Miss.

-11.8

-8.8

-12.5

Utah

California

20.2

19.4

20.2

Wyoming

Nevada

12.9

13.5

13.7

Air Force

Utah St.

0.0

2.5

-0.1

New Mexico

Hawaii

-12.2

-10.6

-12.4

Marshall

Western Kentucky

2.8

1.2

2.1

Stanford

Arizona

7.6

6.7

7.1

Oregon

Washington St.

10.1

11.2

11.2

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

19.2

16.3

19.4

Kentucky

Missouri

-5.0

-4.0

-6.2

North Carolina

Duke

1.7

2.2

3.0

Michigan St.

Penn St.

-5.4

-5.3

-5.8

Kent St.

Miami (O)

2.2

3.7

2.5

South Alabama

Appalachian St.

-32.1

-28.5

-32.7

Georgia Southern

New Mexico St.

18.2

15.2

16.8

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.3

10.6

11.2

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

0.2

-0.8

0.1

Old Dominion

Florida Atlantic

-13.0

-12.1

-13.9

Ball St.

Ohio U

1.1

1.7

0.8

Alabama

Arkansas

43.1

39.2

44.5

Tennessee

South Carolina

-3.3

-2.0

-4.7

Kansas St.

Oklahoma

-14.6

-14.0

-14.8

Minnesota

Maryland

12.7

13.2

13.3

Navy

Tulane

-1.3

0.6

-1.2

TCU

Texas

-4.5

-2.0

-4.4

Pittsburgh

Miami (Fla.)

4.8

5.4

4.4

Louisville

Virginia

-8.1

-8.7

-8.5

Northern Illinois

Akron

22.3

21.0

23.4

Kansas

Texas Tech

-7.7

-6.7

-6.8

Charlotte

North Texas

-5.1

-4.1

-5.6

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

18.7

18.0

19.8

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

8.8

8.0

8.7

LSU

Auburn

9.0

8.4

9.4

UTEP

Louisiana Tech

-23.1

-18.4

-22.6

Michigan

Notre Dame

1.5

1.4

1.6

UCLA

Arizona St.

-6.2

-5.7

-7.7

UNLV

San Diego St.

-11.6

-12.1

-12.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

137.4

136.4

138.4

137.4

2

Alabama

135.3

132.0

136.0

134.4

3

Clemson

132.6

130.0

133.4

132.0

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.5

128.7

5

Oklahoma

125.8

125.1

125.7

125.5

6

Georgia

126.2

124.3

126.1

125.5

7

Auburn

123.4

121.7

123.2

122.8

8

Penn St.

122.7

121.8

122.8

122.5

9

Wisconsin

121.7

121.4

121.7

121.6

10

Florida

122.7

119.8

122.3

121.6

11

Utah

121.6

120.4

122.2

121.4

12

Notre Dame

120.5

118.8

120.4

119.9

13

Oregon

119.1

119.2

120.5

119.6

14

Michigan

118.9

117.2

119.0

118.4

15

Iowa

117.7

115.8

117.5

117.0

16

Iowa St.

115.9

116.6

116.2

116.2

17

Texas A&M

116.7

115.0

115.3

115.7

18

Washington

114.0

113.7

115.0

114.2

19

Minnesota

114.2

113.9

113.7

113.9

20

Baylor

114.0

114.2

113.6

113.9

21

Michigan St.

114.3

113.5

114.0

113.9

22

Missouri

114.2

111.8

114.0

113.3

23

South Carolina

113.6

111.9

113.4

113.0

24

Texas

111.7

111.9

111.9

111.8

25

Washington St.

112.0

111.1

112.3

111.8

26

U S C

109.9

110.7

110.6

110.4

27

Central Florida

110.4

109.6

111.0

110.3

28

Mississippi St.

110.1

106.4

114.5

110.3

29

Virginia

108.8

109.0

108.9

108.9

30

Oklahoma St.

108.6

109.0

108.0

108.5

31

Arizona St.

108.4

107.7

109.2

108.5

32

Appalachian St.

108.8

107.8

108.6

108.4

33

Cincinnati

108.3

107.1

108.9

108.1

34

Kansas St.

108.3

108.1

107.9

108.1

35

Indiana

108.5

107.2

107.9

107.9

36

SMU

107.2

107.0

108.5

107.6

37

Memphis

106.8

106.8

107.5

107.0

38

Pittsburgh

106.6

106.4

106.9

106.6

39

Tennessee

107.3

106.9

105.7

106.6

40

Purdue

106.8

106.6

106.3

106.6

41

T C U

105.2

108.0

105.5

106.2

42

Boise St.

106.1

105.8

106.4

106.1

43

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

44

Texas Tech

105.8

106.0

105.0

105.6

45

Duke

105.6

104.9

105.3

105.3

46

Kentucky

106.2

104.8

104.8

105.3

47

Utah St.

104.9

104.0

105.9

104.9

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.8

104.1

105.5

104.8

49

Ole Miss

105.2

104.2

104.9

104.8

50

Northwestern

105.4

104.5

104.3

104.7

51

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

52

California

104.3

104.0

105.0

104.4

53

Syracuse

104.5

103.8

104.1

104.1

54

Maryland

104.5

103.7

103.3

103.8

55

Nebraska

103.4

104.2

102.8

103.5

56

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

57

Stanford

103.6

102.7

103.1

103.1

58

Air Force

101.9

103.4

102.8

102.7

59

Boston College

102.2

102.1

102.7

102.3

60

West Virginia

102.1

101.5

101.2

101.6

61

Virginia Tech

101.0

101.1

101.4

101.2

62

Temple

100.8

100.1

101.8

100.9

63

Louisiana

100.9

101.0

100.8

100.9

64

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.4

100.2

65

Fresno St.

99.0

99.8

99.5

99.4

66

BYU

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

67

North Carolina St.

99.3

99.0

99.4

99.2

68

Arizona

99.0

99.0

98.9

99.0

69

U C L A

99.2

99.0

98.5

98.9

70

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

71

Illinois

98.3

99.1

97.5

98.3

72

Wyoming

97.3

99.4

97.6

98.1

73

Houston

96.6

97.5

98.5

97.5

74

Oregon St.

97.3

98.3

96.8

97.5

75

Louisville

97.7

97.3

97.4

97.4

76

Western Michigan

97.5

96.4

97.2

97.0

77

Navy

95.5

98.1

96.2

96.6

78

Vanderbilt

97.0

95.7

95.7

96.1

79

Hawaii

95.7

97.0

94.9

95.9

80

Army

96.0

95.9

95.2

95.7

81

Colorado

95.9

95.5

95.4

95.6

82

Kansas

95.2

96.2

95.2

95.5

83

Arkansas

95.2

95.7

94.5

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.6

92.9

95.0

94.2

85

Troy

94.3

94.8

93.4

94.2

86

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.0

94.3

94.1

87

Southern Miss.

94.2

92.6

94.3

93.7

88

Georgia Southern

93.3

92.7

92.2

92.8

89

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

90

Florida Atlantic

91.9

91.4

92.8

92.0

91

Northern Illinois

92.2

91.1

92.3

91.9

92

Tulsa

91.0

91.8

92.0

91.6

93

Western Kentucky

90.6

91.8

92.4

91.6

94

Florida Int’l.

91.4

91.4

91.6

91.5

95

Ball St.

91.5

91.1

91.6

91.4

96

North Texas

91.2

90.5

91.7

91.1

97

U A B

89.9

91.8

90.8

90.9

98

Marshall

90.4

90.0

91.5

90.6

99

Georgia St.

89.6

91.0

89.3

90.0

100

Buffalo

89.3

89.8

90.4

89.8

101

Arkansas St.

89.7

89.8

89.2

89.6

102

Liberty

89.0

90.3

89.3

89.5

103

Middle Tennessee

89.1

88.1

89.2

88.8

104

South Florida

88.3

89.3

88.5

88.7

105

Toledo

88.3

88.6

89.0

88.6

106

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

107

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

87.0

88.7

88.1

108

Nevada

87.5

88.9

86.9

87.8

109

Eastern Michigan

87.2

87.4

87.7

87.5

110

Coastal Carolina

86.8

87.9

86.2

87.0

111

Central Michigan

85.9

86.7

86.9

86.5

112

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.5

85.6

86.0

113

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

114

U N L V

84.2

85.6

83.7

84.5

115

East Carolina

83.8

85.6

84.0

84.5

116

Colorado St.

82.8

86.6

83.1

84.2

117

Charlotte

83.6

83.9

83.6

83.7

118

Texas St.

83.4

84.2

83.0

83.5

119

Rutgers

84.1

83.6

82.9

83.5

120

New Mexico

80.0

82.8

79.0

80.6

121

Rice

79.9

81.3

79.2

80.2

122

New Mexico St.

78.2

80.6

78.5

79.1

123

Old Dominion

76.4

76.8

76.4

76.5

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.8

74.3

75.2

125

South Alabama

74.2

76.8

73.3

74.8

126

Bowling Green

74.1

74.0

74.2

74.1

127

Connecticut

71.9

75.4

70.8

72.7

128

Akron

72.5

72.6

71.4

72.1

129

U T E P

68.4

73.1

69.2

70.2

130

Massachusetts

62.3

64.1

61.2

62.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

110.4

109.6

111.0

110.3

2-1

5-2

Cincinnati

108.3

107.1

108.9

108.1

3-0

6-1

Temple

100.8

100.1

101.8

100.9

2-1

5-2

South Florida

88.3

89.3

88.5

88.7

1-2

3-4

East Carolina

83.8

85.6

84.0

84.5

0-3

3-4

Connecticut

71.9

75.4

70.8

72.7

0-4

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

107.2

107.0

108.5

107.6

3-0

7-0

Memphis

106.8

106.8

107.5

107.0

2-1

6-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.4

100.2

2-1

5-2

Houston

96.6

97.5

98.5

97.5

1-2

3-4

Navy

95.5

98.1

96.2

96.6

3-1

5-1

Tulsa

91.0

91.8

92.0

91.6

0-3

2-5

AAC Averages

96.7

97.4

97.3

97.1

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.6

130.0

133.4

132.0

5-0

7-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

2-3

3-4

Syracuse

104.5

103.8

104.1

104.1

0-3

3-4

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

2-1

6-1

Boston College

102.2

102.1

102.7

102.3

2-2

4-3

North Carolina St.

99.3

99.0

99.4

99.2

1-2

4-3

Louisville

97.7

97.3

97.4

97.4

2-2

4-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

108.8

109.0

108.9

108.9

3-1

5-2

Pittsburgh

106.6

106.4

106.9

106.6

2-1

5-2

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

2-2

3-4

Duke

105.6

104.9

105.3

105.3

2-2

4-3

Miami (Fla.)

104.8

104.1

105.5

104.8

1-3

3-4

Virginia Tech

101.0

101.1

101.4

101.2

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.6

92.9

95.0

94.2

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

125.8

125.1

125.7

125.5

4-0

7-0

Iowa St.

115.9

116.6

116.2

116.2

3-1

5-2

Baylor

114.0

114.2

113.6

113.9

4-0

7-0

Texas

111.7

111.9

111.9

111.8

3-1

5-2

Oklahoma St.

108.6

109.0

108.0

108.5

1-3

4-3

Kansas St.

108.3

108.1

107.9

108.1

1-2

4-2

T C U

105.2

108.0

105.5

106.2

1-2

3-3

Texas Tech

105.8

106.0

105.0

105.6

1-3

3-4

West Virginia

102.1

101.5

101.2

101.6

1-3

3-4

Kansas

95.2

96.2

95.2

95.5

0-4

2-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

137.4

136.4

138.4

137.4

4-0

7-0

Penn St.

122.7

121.8

122.8

122.5

4-0

7-0

Michigan

118.9

117.2

119.0

118.4

3-2

5-2

Michigan St.

114.3

113.5

114.0

113.9

2-2

4-3

Indiana

108.5

107.2

107.9

107.9

2-2

5-2

Maryland

104.5

103.7

103.3

103.8

1-3

3-4

Rutgers

84.1

83.6

82.9

83.5

0-5

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

121.7

121.4

121.7

121.6

3-1

6-1

Iowa

117.7

115.8

117.5

117.0

2-2

5-2

Minnesota

114.2

113.9

113.7

113.9

4-0

7-0

Purdue

106.8

106.6

106.3

106.6

1-3

2-5

Northwestern

105.4

104.5

104.3

104.7

0-4

1-5

Nebraska

103.4

104.2

102.8

103.5

2-2

4-3

Illinois

98.3

99.1

97.5

98.3

1-3

3-4

Big Ten Averages

111.3

110.6

110.9

110.9

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

91.9

91.4

92.8

92.0

2-1

4-3

Western Kentucky

90.6

91.8

92.4

91.6

4-0

5-2

Florida Int’l.

91.4

91.4

91.6

91.5

2-2

4-3

Marshall

90.4

90.0

91.5

90.6

2-1

4-3

Middle Tennessee

89.1

88.1

89.2

88.8

1-2

2-5

Charlotte

83.6

83.9

83.6

83.7

0-3

2-5

Old Dominion

76.4

76.8

76.4

76.5

0-3

1-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.0

94.3

94.1

3-0

6-1

Southern Miss.

94.2

92.6

94.3

93.7

2-1

4-3

North Texas

91.2

90.5

91.7

91.1

2-1

3-4

U A B

89.9

91.8

90.8

90.9

3-1

6-1

Rice

79.9

81.3

79.2

80.2

0-3

0-7

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.8

74.3

75.2

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.4

73.1

69.2

70.2

0-3

1-5

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.5

118.8

120.4

119.9

x

5-1

BYU

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

x

3-4

Army

96.0

95.9

95.2

95.7

x

3-4

Liberty

89.0

90.3

89.3

89.5

x

5-2

New Mexico St.

78.2

80.6

78.5

79.1

x

0-7

Massachusetts

62.3

64.1

61.2

62.5

x

1-6

Indep. Averages

90.9

91.5

90.6

91.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

2-1

3-4

Buffalo

89.3

89.8

90.4

89.8

1-2

3-4

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

2-1

3-4

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

87.0

88.7

88.1

2-1

3-4

Bowling Green

74.1

74.0

74.2

74.1

1-2

2-5

Akron

72.5

72.6

71.4

72.1

0-3

0-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.5

96.4

97.2

97.0

2-2

4-4

Northern Illinois

92.2

91.1

92.3

91.9

1-2

2-5

Ball St.

91.5

91.1

91.6

91.4

3-0

4-3

Toledo

88.3

88.6

89.0

88.6

1-2

4-3

Eastern Michigan

87.2

87.4

87.7

87.5

1-2

4-3

Central Michigan

85.9

86.7

86.9

86.5

3-1

5-3

MAC Averages

87.3

87.1

87.6

87.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.1

105.8

106.4

106.1

3-0

6-1

Utah St.

104.9

104.0

105.9

104.9

3-0

4-2

Air Force

101.9

103.4

102.8

102.7

3-1

5-2

Wyoming

97.3

99.4

97.6

98.1

2-1

5-2

Colorado St.

82.8

86.6

83.1

84.2

1-2

2-5

New Mexico

80.0

82.8

79.0

80.6

0-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.0

99.8

99.5

99.4

1-1

3-3

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

3-1

6-1

Hawaii

95.7

97.0

94.9

95.9

1-2

4-3

Nevada

87.5

88.9

86.9

87.8

1-2

4-3

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

1-3

3-4

U N L V

84.2

85.6

83.7

84.5

1-3

2-5

MWC Averages

93.6

95.1

93.6

94.1

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

119.1

119.2

120.5

119.6

4-0

6-1

Washington

114.0

113.7

115.0

114.2

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.0

111.1

112.3

111.8

1-3

4-3

California

104.3

104.0

105.0

104.4

1-3

4-3

Stanford

103.6

102.7

103.1

103.1

2-3

3-4

Oregon St.

97.3

98.3

96.8

97.5

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.6

120.4

122.2

121.4

3-1

6-1

U S C

109.9

110.7

110.6

110.4

3-1

4-3

Arizona St.

108.4

107.7

109.2

108.5

2-2

5-2

Arizona

99.0

99.0

98.9

99.0

2-2

4-3

U C L A

99.2

99.0

98.5

98.9

2-2

2-5

Colorado

95.9

95.5

95.4

95.6

1-3

3-4

Pac-12 Averages

107.0

106.8

107.3

107.0

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.2

124.3

126.1

125.5

3-1

6-1

Florida

122.7

119.8

122.3

121.6

5-1

7-1

Missouri

114.2

111.8

114.0

113.3

2-1

5-2

South Carolina

113.6

111.9

113.4

113.0

2-3

3-4

Tennessee

107.3

106.9

105.7

106.6

1-3

2-5

Kentucky

106.2

104.8

104.8

105.3

1-4

3-4

Vanderbilt

97.0

95.7

95.7

96.1

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.0

136.0

134.4

4-0

7-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.5

128.7

3-0

7-0

Auburn

123.4

121.7

123.2

122.8

3-1

6-1

Texas A&M

116.7

115.0

115.3

115.7

2-2

4-3

Mississippi St.

110.1

106.4

114.5

110.3

1-3

3-4

Ole Miss

105.2

104.2

104.9

104.8

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

95.2

95.7

94.5

95.2

0-4

2-5

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.8

107.8

108.6

108.4

3-0

6-0

Troy

94.3

94.8

93.4

94.2

1-1

3-3

Georgia Southern

93.3

92.7

92.2

92.8

2-1

3-3

Georgia St.

89.6

91.0

89.3

90.0

2-1

5-2

Coastal Carolina

86.8

87.9

86.2

87.0

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.9

101.0

100.8

100.9

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

89.7

89.8

89.2

89.6

1-2

3-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.5

85.6

86.0

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

83.4

84.2

83.0

83.5

1-1

2-4

South Alabama

74.2

76.8

73.3

74.8

0-3

1-6

SBC Averages

90.7

91.3

90.2

90.7

 

 

Conference Ratings

 

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

110.9

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.0

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.1

7

Mountain West

94.1

8

Independents

91.0

9

Sun Belt

90.7

10

Mid-American

87.3

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).

AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up.  SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl.  Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.

ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so.  There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids.  Boston College, Louisville,  and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now.  The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.

Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries?  If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs.  If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs.  If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs.  Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now.  Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.

Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier.  The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound.  Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division.  Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect.  If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962.  With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.

Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture.  Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag.  The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand.  UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.

Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here.  The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention.  If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid.  Keep an eye on Liberty.  If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season.  Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins.  Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.

MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest.  Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division.  The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions.  The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition.  Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion.  In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown.  Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.

Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl.  The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them.  Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team.  With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title.  This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in.  Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.

Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely.  The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm.  Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs.  The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.

SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden.  If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn.  Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title.  With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids.  USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility.  Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6.  In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss.  Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8.  The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.

Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion?  Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Central Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Toledo]

Cure

AAC

SBC

East Carolina

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Ball St.

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[UAB]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Duke

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Purdue

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

Arizona

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Pittsburgh

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Penn St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Hawaii]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Wyoming]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

USC

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Georgia

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Michigan St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

LSU

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Troy]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Nebraska

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Western Ky.]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

 

 

 

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October 13, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Wednesday

October 16

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Troy

South Alabama

22.4

19.7

21.9

Thursday

October 17

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas St.

Louisiana

-6.5

-6.3

-6.5

Stanford

UCLA

12.6

12.2

13.5

Friday

October 18

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida Atlantic

Marshall

6.7

6.8

6.9

Syracuse

Pittsburgh

2.8

2.4

2.5

Northwestern

Ohio St.

-24.8

-24.4

-26.8

Fresno St.

UNLV

15.2

14.2

15.8

Saturday

October 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Virginia

Duke

2.0

2.7

2.0

Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Tech

15.9

16.8

16.4

Louisville

Clemson

-31.4

-28.6

-32.2

Georgia St.

Army

-6.7

-5.2

-6.6

Akron

Buffalo

-13.5

-13.7

-15.5

Maryland

Indiana

-0.6

0.3

-0.8

Connecticut

Houston

-24.5

-21.6

-28.3

Wake Forest

Florida St.

1.5

0.8

1.7

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

10.7

8.9

10.5

Bowling Green

Central Michigan

-7.3

-8.2

-8.0

Central Florida

East Carolina

31.5

28.7

32.5

Cincinnati

Tulsa

21.7

19.8

21.7

Boston College

North Carolina St.

2.1

2.2

2.2

Iowa

Purdue

14.5

12.8

15.1

Ohio

Kent St.

7.2

6.2

7.1

Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan

-10.3

-9.1

-10.0

Texas

Kansas

22.5

21.6

23.0

Illinois

Wisconsin

-25.1

-23.9

-26.2

Utah St.

Nevada

19.8

16.8

21.4

BYU

Boise St.

-6.1

-6.0

-7.0

Wyoming

New Mexico

21.2

20.4

22.7

Utah

Arizona St.

16.0

15.3

15.6

Ball St.

Toledo

0.2

-0.5

-0.3

Miami (O)

Northern Illinois

-1.8

-2.6

-2.1

California

Oregon St.

13.6

12.2

15.3

Washington

Oregon

-1.4

-2.0

-1.7

USC

Arizona

10.3

10.9

10.7

Washington St.

Colorado

16.1

15.4

16.5

South Carolina

Florida

-5.4

-4.1

-4.9

Georgia

Kentucky

23.6

23.4

25.6

Kansas St.

TCU

5.8

2.5

5.2

Mississippi St.

LSU

-14.3

-15.7

-9.1

Alabama

Tennessee

32.0

29.1

34.3

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

-0.9

0.6

-1.1

UAB

Old Dominion

12.9

14.3

13.5

Oklahoma

West Virginia

24.3

23.9

24.6

Oklahoma St.

Baylor

0.9

1.3

1.1

Arkansas

Auburn

-20.7

-18.1

-20.7

Ole Miss

Texas A&M

-8.8

-7.7

-7.4

Memphis

Tulane

5.3

4.2

5.0

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

-2.3

-2.2

-3.1

Rutgers

Minnesota

-25.0

-25.1

-25.3

Texas Tech

Iowa St.

-6.7

-7.0

-7.7

Navy

South Florida

5.2

6.8

5.3

Appalachian St.

Louisiana-Monroe

20.2

18.1

19.8

Vanderbilt

Missouri

-18.8

-17.6

-20.5

San Jose St.

San Diego St.

-10.4

-10.1

-10.8

Western Kentucky

Charlotte

8.0

8.5

9.5

North Texas

Middle Tennessee

4.8

5.3

5.7

UTSA

Rice

-3.9

-2.9

-3.5

SMU

Temple

5.6

6.3

5.6

Florida Int’l.

UTEP

27.8

22.9

27.5

Penn St.

Michigan

6.4

7.2

6.5

Hawaii

Air Force

4.0

4.0

2.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note:  We receive a lot of emails at our sister site asking us how X can be rated ahead of Y when Y beat X in September.  These are not rankings; they are ratings.  They are predictive in nature and not mean to rank the teams based on what they have done earlier in the season.  These ratings try to forecast the next week of games only.  

 

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

135.3

134.2

136.2

135.2

2

Alabama

135.8

132.5

136.5

134.9

3

Clemson

132.2

129.3

132.9

131.5

4

L S U

128.4

126.1

128.0

127.5

5

Georgia

126.7

124.9

126.9

126.2

6

Wisconsin

124.2

123.9

124.4

124.2

7

Oklahoma

124.4

123.6

124.1

124.0

8

Penn St.

122.5

121.6

122.6

122.3

9

Utah

121.5

120.2

122.0

121.2

10

Florida

122.4

119.4

121.8

121.2

11

Auburn

121.5

119.6

121.1

120.7

12

Notre Dame

120.2

118.5

120.1

119.6

13

Oregon

118.7

118.8

120.0

119.2

14

Michigan

119.1

117.4

119.2

118.6

15

Iowa

118.0

116.1

118.0

117.3

16

Iowa St.

115.7

116.3

115.9

116.0

17

Texas A&M

116.8

115.0

115.3

115.7

18

Missouri

116.4

114.0

116.5

115.6

19

Washington

114.2

113.9

115.3

114.5

20

Michigan St.

114.0

113.2

113.7

113.6

21

Texas

113.3

113.5

113.7

113.5

22

South Carolina

113.9

112.3

113.9

113.4

23

Minnesota

112.4

112.0

111.7

112.0

24

Baylor

112.1

112.2

111.5

111.9

25

Central Florida

111.5

110.6

112.4

111.5

26

Mississipppi St.

111.1

107.4

116.0

111.5

27

Washington St.

110.5

109.5

110.6

110.2

28

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.6

110.0

29

Cincinnati

109.0

107.8

109.8

108.9

30

Arizona St.

108.5

107.9

109.4

108.6

31

U S C

108.1

108.8

108.6

108.5

32

Kansas St.

108.2

107.8

107.8

107.9

33

Boise St.

107.5

107.3

108.1

107.6

34

Indiana

108.3

106.8

107.5

107.5

35

Duke

107.7

107.1

107.6

107.5

36

Northwestern

107.5

106.7

106.5

106.9

37

Virginia

106.7

106.8

106.6

106.7

38

Miami (Fla.)

106.4

105.7

107.2

106.4

39

California

106.2

105.9

107.2

106.4

40

T C U

105.3

108.3

105.6

106.4

41

North Carolina

106.0

106.0

107.2

106.4

42

Purdue

106.5

106.3

105.8

106.2

43

Tennessee

106.8

106.4

105.2

106.1

44

Stanford

106.4

105.6

106.2

106.1

45

Texas Tech

106.0

106.3

105.3

105.9

46

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.5

105.9

105.7

47

SMU

105.1

104.9

106.2

105.4

48

Appalachian St.

105.9

104.7

105.5

105.4

49

Syracuse

105.6

105.0

105.4

105.3

50

Kentucky

106.0

104.5

104.3

104.9

51

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.9

104.7

52

Memphis

104.6

104.4

105.1

104.7

53

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

54

Utah St.

104.6

103.4

105.6

104.5

55

Maryland

104.7

104.1

103.7

104.2

56

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

57

Nebraska

103.1

103.9

102.5

103.2

58

Tulane

102.3

103.2

103.1

102.9

59

West Virginia

103.2

102.7

102.5

102.8

60

Temple

102.4

101.7

103.6

102.6

61

North Carolina St.

101.3

101.1

101.6

101.3

62

Arizona

100.8

100.9

100.9

100.9

63

Virginia Tech

100.7

100.8

101.1

100.9

64

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.8

100.5

65

Louisiana

99.8

99.8

99.5

99.7

66

Air Force

98.9

100.3

99.7

99.6

67

Houston

98.0

98.8

100.3

99.0

68

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

69

Hawaii

98.4

99.8

97.7

98.6

70

Wyoming

97.7

99.8

98.2

98.6

71

Western Michigan

98.8

97.7

98.7

98.4

72

BYU

98.4

98.3

98.1

98.3

73

Fresno St.

97.7

98.3

98.0

98.0

74

Arkansas

97.8

98.5

97.3

97.9

75

Louisville

97.9

97.8

97.7

97.8

76

Army

97.4

97.3

96.8

97.2

77

Colorado

97.4

97.1

97.1

97.2

78

U C L A

96.7

96.4

95.7

96.3

79

Illinois

96.1

96.9

95.1

96.1

80

Oregon St.

95.7

96.7

94.9

95.8

81

Southern Miss.

95.8

94.2

96.1

95.4

82

Kansas

93.9

94.9

93.7

94.2

83

Vanderbilt

95.1

93.8

93.5

94.1

84

Navy

93.0

95.6

93.5

94.1

85

Troy

94.2

94.4

93.1

93.9

86

Georgia Southern

94.1

93.5

93.2

93.6

87

Florida Atlantic

93.0

92.6

94.1

93.2

88

Georgia Tech

93.5

91.8

93.8

93.0

89

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

90

Florida Int’l.

92.5

92.4

92.9

92.6

91

Louisiana Tech

92.4

92.4

92.5

92.4

92

Northern Illinois

92.5

91.6

92.8

92.3

93

Toledo

91.3

91.6

92.0

91.6

94

North Texas

91.3

90.7

92.0

91.3

95

South Florida

90.8

91.8

91.2

91.3

96

Tulsa

90.3

91.1

91.1

90.8

97

Arkansas St.

90.8

91.0

90.5

90.8

98

Western Kentucky

89.8

90.9

91.5

90.7

99

Marshall

89.3

88.8

90.2

89.4

100

Buffalo

88.9

89.3

89.9

89.3

101

Liberty

88.8

90.1

89.1

89.3

102

U A B

88.3

90.2

89.1

89.2

103

Ball St.

89.0

88.6

89.1

88.9

104

Middle Tennessee

89.0

87.9

88.9

88.6

105

Louisiana-Monroe

88.2

89.1

88.2

88.5

106

Georgia St.

88.2

89.6

87.7

88.5

107

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

108

Nevada

87.8

89.5

87.2

88.2

109

Miami (Ohio)

88.2

86.5

88.2

87.6

110

Eastern Michigan

85.9

86.1

86.2

86.1

111

Coastal Carolina

86.0

87.1

85.2

86.1

112

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

113

U N L V

85.5

87.1

85.2

85.9

114

Central Michigan

84.8

85.6

85.7

85.3

115

Charlotte

84.4

84.8

84.5

84.6

116

Rutgers

84.9

84.5

83.9

84.4

117

Colorado St.

82.5

86.3

82.8

83.9

118

East Carolina

83.0

84.9

82.9

83.6

119

Texas St.

83.2

84.0

82.8

83.3

120

Rice

80.5

81.9

79.9

80.8

121

New Mexico

79.6

82.4

78.4

80.2

122

New Mexico St.

78.0

80.4

78.3

78.9

123

Old Dominion

78.0

78.4

78.1

78.2

124

South Alabama

74.3

77.2

73.6

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.9

74.8

75.1

75.0

126

Texas-San Antonio

74.2

76.5

73.9

74.8

127

Akron

72.9

73.1

71.9

72.6

128

Connecticut

71.0

74.6

69.5

71.7

129

U T E P

67.3

72.1

67.9

69.1

130

Massachusetts

62.1

63.9

61.0

62.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.6

112.4

111.5

1-1

4-2

Cincinnati

109.0

107.8

109.8

108.9

2-0

5-1

Temple

102.4

101.7

103.6

102.6

2-0

5-1

South Florida

90.8

91.8

91.2

91.3

1-1

3-3

East Carolina

83.0

84.9

82.9

83.6

0-2

3-3

Connecticut

71.0

74.6

69.5

71.7

0-3

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

105.1

104.9

106.2

105.4

2-0

6-0

Memphis

104.6

104.4

105.1

104.7

1-1

5-1

Tulane

102.3

103.2

103.1

102.9

2-0

5-1

Houston

98.0

98.8

100.3

99.0

0-2

2-4

Navy

93.0

95.6

93.5

94.1

2-1

4-1

Tulsa

90.3

91.1

91.1

90.8

0-2

2-4

AAC Averages

96.7

97.5

97.4

97.2

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.2

129.3

132.9

131.5

4-0

6-0

Syracuse

105.6

105.0

105.4

105.3

0-2

3-3

Florida St.

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.6

2-2

3-3

Wake Forest

103.5

102.9

103.8

103.4

1-1

5-1

North Carolina St.

101.3

101.1

101.6

101.3

1-1

4-2

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.8

100.5

1-2

3-3

Louisville

97.9

97.8

97.7

97.8

2-1

4-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Duke

107.7

107.1

107.6

107.5

2-1

4-2

Virginia

106.7

106.8

106.6

106.7

2-1

4-2

Miami (Fla.)

106.4

105.7

107.2

106.4

1-2

3-3

North Carolina

106.0

106.0

107.2

106.4

2-1

3-3

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.5

105.9

105.7

1-1

4-2

Virginia Tech

100.7

100.8

101.1

100.9

2-2

4-2

Georgia Tech

93.5

91.8

93.8

93.0

0-3

1-5

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

124.4

123.6

124.1

124.0

3-0

6-0

Iowa St.

115.7

116.3

115.9

116.0

2-1

4-2

Texas

113.3

113.5

113.7

113.5

2-1

4-2

Baylor

112.1

112.2

111.5

111.9

3-0

6-0

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.6

110.0

1-2

4-2

Kansas St.

108.2

107.8

107.8

107.9

0-2

3-2

T C U

105.3

108.3

105.6

106.4

1-1

3-2

Texas Tech

106.0

106.3

105.3

105.9

1-2

3-3

West Virginia

103.2

102.7

102.5

102.8

1-2

3-3

Kansas

93.9

94.9

93.7

94.2

0-3

2-4

Big 12 Averages

109.2

109.6

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

135.3

134.2

136.2

135.2

3-0

6-0

Penn St.

122.5

121.6

122.6

122.3

3-0

6-0

Michigan

119.1

117.4

119.2

118.6

3-1

5-1

Michigan St.

114.0

113.2

113.7

113.6

2-2

4-3

Indiana

108.3

106.8

107.5

107.5

1-2

4-2

Maryland

104.7

104.1

103.7

104.2

1-2

3-3

Rutgers

84.9

84.5

83.9

84.4

0-4

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

124.2

123.9

124.4

124.2

3-0

6-0

Iowa

118.0

116.1

118.0

117.3

1-2

4-2

Minnesota

112.4

112.0

111.7

112.0

3-0

6-0

Northwestern

107.5

106.7

106.5

106.9

0-3

1-4

Purdue

106.5

106.3

105.8

106.2

1-2

2-4

Nebraska

103.1

103.9

102.5

103.2

2-2

4-3

Illinois

96.1

96.9

95.1

96.1

0-3

2-4

Big Ten Averages

111.2

110.5

110.8

110.8

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

93.0

92.6

94.1

93.2

2-0

4-2

Florida Int’l.

92.5

92.4

92.9

92.6

1-2

3-3

Western Kentucky

89.8

90.9

91.5

90.7

3-0

4-2

Marshall

89.3

88.8

90.2

89.4

1-1

3-3

Middle Tennessee

89.0

87.9

88.9

88.6

1-1

2-4

Charlotte

84.4

84.8

84.5

84.6

0-2

2-4

Old Dominion

78.0

78.4

78.1

78.2

0-2

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

95.8

94.2

96.1

95.4

2-0

4-2

Louisiana Tech

92.4

92.4

92.5

92.4

2-0

5-1

North Texas

91.3

90.7

92.0

91.3

1-1

2-4

U A B

88.3

90.2

89.1

89.2

2-1

5-1

Rice

80.5

81.9

79.9

80.8

0-2

0-6

Texas-San Antonio

74.2

76.5

73.9

74.8

1-2

2-4

U T E P

67.3

72.1

67.9

69.1

0-2

1-4

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.5

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.2

118.5

120.1

119.6

x

5-1

BYU

98.4

98.3

98.1

98.3

x

2-4

Army

97.4

97.3

96.8

97.2

x

3-3

Liberty

88.8

90.1

89.1

89.3

x

4-2

New Mexico St.

78.0

80.4

78.3

78.9

x

0-7

Massachusetts

62.1

63.9

61.0

62.3

x

1-6

Indep. Averages

90.8

91.4

90.6

90.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

92.9

91.9

93.3

92.7

1-1

2-4

Buffalo

88.9

89.3

89.9

89.3

0-2

2-4

Kent St.

88.2

88.2

88.7

88.4

2-0

3-3

Miami (Ohio)

88.2

86.5

88.2

87.6

1-1

2-4

Bowling Green

74.9

74.8

75.1

75.0

1-1

2-4

Akron

72.9

73.1

71.9

72.6

0-2

0-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.8

97.7

98.7

98.4

2-1

4-3

Northern Illinois

92.5

91.6

92.8

92.3

1-1

2-4

Toledo

91.3

91.6

92.0

91.6

1-1

4-2

Ball St.

89.0

88.6

89.1

88.9

2-0

3-3

Eastern Michigan

85.9

86.1

86.2

86.1

0-2

3-3

Central Michigan

84.8

85.6

85.7

85.3

2-1

4-3

MAC Averages

87.4

87.1

87.6

87.4

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

107.5

107.3

108.1

107.6

3-0

6-0

Utah St.

104.6

103.4

105.6

104.5

2-0

3-2

Air Force

98.9

100.3

99.7

99.6

2-1

4-2

Wyoming

97.7

99.8

98.2

98.6

1-1

4-2

Colorado St.

82.5

86.3

82.8

83.9

1-2

2-5

New Mexico

79.6

82.4

78.4

80.2

0-2

2-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

98.3

100.1

98.3

98.9

2-1

5-1

Hawaii

98.4

99.8

97.7

98.6

1-1

4-2

Fresno St.

97.7

98.3

98.0

98.0

0-1

2-3

Nevada

87.8

89.5

87.2

88.2

1-1

4-2

San Jose St.

85.4

87.5

85.0

86.0

1-2

3-3

U N L V

85.5

87.1

85.2

85.9

1-2

2-4

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

118.7

118.8

120.0

119.2

3-0

5-1

Washington

114.2

113.9

115.3

114.5

2-2

5-2

Washington St.

110.5

109.5

110.6

110.2

0-3

3-3

California

106.2

105.9

107.2

106.4

1-2

4-2

Stanford

106.4

105.6

106.2

106.1

2-2

3-3

Oregon St.

95.7

96.7

94.9

95.8

1-2

2-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.5

120.2

122.0

121.2

2-1

5-1

Arizona St.

108.5

107.9

109.4

108.6

2-1

5-1

U S C

108.1

108.8

108.6

108.5

2-1

3-3

Arizona

100.8

100.9

100.9

100.9

2-1

4-2

Colorado

97.4

97.1

97.1

97.2

1-2

3-3

U C L A

96.7

96.4

95.7

96.3

1-2

1-5

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.8

107.3

107.1

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.7

124.9

126.9

126.2

2-1

5-1

Florida

122.4

119.4

121.8

121.2

4-1

6-1

Missouri

116.4

114.0

116.5

115.6

2-0

5-1

South Carolina

113.9

112.3

113.9

113.4

2-2

3-3

Tennessee

106.8

106.4

105.2

106.1

1-2

2-4

Kentucky

106.0

104.5

104.3

104.9

1-3

3-3

Vanderbilt

95.1

93.8

93.5

94.1

0-3

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.8

132.5

136.5

134.9

3-0

6-0

L S U

128.4

126.1

128.0

127.5

2-0

6-0

Auburn

121.5

119.6

121.1

120.7

2-1

5-1

Texas A&M

116.8

115.0

115.3

115.7

1-2

3-3

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.4

116.0

111.5

1-2

3-3

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.9

104.7

2-2

3-4

Arkansas

97.8

98.5

97.3

97.9

0-3

2-4

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.4

113.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.9

104.7

105.5

105.4

2-0

5-0

Troy

94.2

94.4

93.1

93.9

0-1

2-3

Georgia Southern

94.1

93.5

93.2

93.6

1-1

2-3

Georgia St.

88.2

89.6

87.7

88.5

2-1

4-2

Coastal Carolina

86.0

87.1

85.2

86.1

0-2

3-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

99.8

99.8

99.5

99.7

1-1

4-2

Arkansas St.

90.8

91.0

90.5

90.8

1-1

3-3

Louisiana-Monroe

88.2

89.1

88.2

88.5

2-0

3-3

Texas St.

83.2

84.0

82.8

83.3

1-1

2-4

South Alabama

74.3

77.2

73.6

75.1

0-2

1-5

SBC Averages

90.5

91.0

89.9

90.5

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.9

2

BTen

110.8

3

B12

109.3

4

P12

107.1

5

ACC

105.1

6

AAC

97.2

7

MWC

94.2

8

Ind

90.9

9

SUN

90.5

10

MAC

87.4

11

CUSA

86.5

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

SMU

3

Cincinnati

4

Appalachian St.

5

Temple

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Ball St.

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Navy

[North Texas]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Central Florida

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Marshall

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Western Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Troy

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

San Diego St.

Arizona

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Memphis

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

Hawaii

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Louisville

[Buffalo]

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina St.

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

North Carolina

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Minnesota

Boise St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Louisiana Tech

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Purdue

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Georgia Southern]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Pittsburgh

Mississippi St.

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

USC

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[California]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia St.

Utah St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

South Carolina

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Kent St.

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Florida Int’l.]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Louisiana

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Oklahoma

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Reverse Engineering the NCAA Playoffs

Here is our best estimate as to which teams would have qualified for the Playoffs in the years before there were playoffs.  This covers the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present)

 

 

2013: Florida St., Auburn, Alabama, Michigan St.

Auburn and Alabama would have met in a rematch

 

2012: Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, Oregon

Ohio State was 12-0 but ineligible that year

 

2011: LSU, Alabama, Stanford, Oklahoma St.

Andrew Luck versus the Crimson Tide and Les Myles against his old team

 

2010: Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Wisconsin

3, 12-0 teams and a possible Andy Dalton vs. Cam Newton in the Championship Game

 

2009: Alabama, Texas, TCU, Boise St.

All four teams were 12-0.  Nick Saban’s only undefeated team may have been one of his weaker teams at Alabama.  

 

2008: Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, Utah

This is a year where an 8-team playoff would have been needed, as there were nine teams that could be considered playoff worthy.  Only Utah was undefeated, and the Utes slaughtered Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

 

2007: Ohio St., LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma

This would have been a difficult year for a Selection Committee with only three deserving teams.  Number four could have been Missouri, Georgia, or USC.

 

2006: Ohio St., Florida, Michigan, Louisville

Ohio State and Michigan were both 11-0 when they met in Columbus.  The Buckeyes’ home field advantage is historically between 3.5 and 4.5 points, and they only won this game by three.  Might Michigan have been a little better that year?  Florida and Michigan in a semifinal game might have set up a rematch of the bitter rivals.

 

2005: USC, Texas, Penn St., Oregon

This was definitely a year where only two teams were needed for playoffs.  It would have been ashamed if either USC or Texas had been upset in a semifinal game, robbing the nation of one of the best Championship Games ever.

 

2004: USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah

All four of these teams were 12-0 at the end of the regular season.  Auburn and Utah were won impressive bowl games, and this would have been one of the best playoff years ever.

 

2003: USC, LSU, Oklahoma, Michigan

The BCS folks got this one wrong by not taking USC that year, and the AP Poll voted USC the national champion over LSU.

 

2002: Miami, Ohio St., Iowa, Georgia

Ohio State and Iowa did not play each other that year, as this pre-dates the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

2001: Miami, Oregon, Nebraska, Illinois

This was another tough year, and it didn’t need a playoff at all, as Miami was clearly 7-10 points better than anybody else in the nation.  Illinois gets the nod over Maryland and Colorado.

 

2000: Oklahoma, Washington, Miami, Florida St.

This was a year where a 6-team tournament, adding Oregon State and Virginia Tech, would have been needed.  Washington was more deserving than Florida State that year.

 

1999: Florida St., Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Kansas St.

The two teams that played for the title were the only legitimate teams that should have played for a title that year.

 

1998: Tennessee, Ohio St., Florida St., Kansas St.

UCLA might have been the best team headed into the final weeks that year, but the Bruins made a mistake playing at Miami to close out the regular season.  They were not ready for the heat and humidity, or the Miami speed.  Ohio State was more deserving of the Championship Game bid than Florida State.

1997: Nebraska, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida St.

Peyton Manning versus Charles Woodson in a battle of the top two Heisman Trophy candidates.  Then, in all likelihood, it would have been Michigan and Nebraska in one of the best Championship Games never to be played.

1996: Florida St., Arizona St., Florida, Ohio St.

John Cooper had two teams that were probably the best in the land, but his Buckeyes always found a way to lay an egg at some point during the season.  This Buckeyes’ team probably would have beaten Florida St. in a semifinal game.

1995: Nebraska, Florida, Tennessee, Northwestern

Florida, Tennessee, and Northwestern could have combined their rosters and still lost to Nebraska by 14 points.  This was the most dominant team of the last 25 years.

1994: Nebraska, Penn St., Alabama, Miami

A 10-0-1 Texas A&M team was on probation that year.  Nebraska and Penn State would have been an incredible game had they played that year.  In those days, the Big Ten champion went to the Rose Bowl, and there was no guarantee that the top two teams would play each other.

1993: Nebraska, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Florida St.

An 11-0 Auburn team may have been the best in the nation that year, but the Tigers were on probation.  Notre Dame’s upset loss at Boston College kept the Irish out of the National Championship Game, allowing a Florida State team that ND beat to sneak in to the Orange Bowl.  The Irish were probably the best team that year.

1992: Alabama, Miami, Texas A&M, Florida St.

One wide field goal attempt against Miami was all that kept Florida State from going undefeated.  Had the ball been true, there would have been four teams with no losses.  It didn’t matter that year, as ‘Bama was clearly  the best team in the nation with the best defense in modern day football (Wisconsin has a chance to take that moniker away this year if they run the table and stop Ohio State’s offense).

1991: Washington, Miami, Florida, Michigan

Washington and Miami needed to meet for the national championship that year.  The PiRate Ratings had Washington rated about two points ahead of Miami that year.

1990: Georgia Tech, Colorado, Texas, Miami

This was one of the toughest years to pick any of the teams.  At 10-2, Miami was probably the best team that year, as they pasted Texas in the Cotton Bowl 46-3, committing more yards in penalties than Texas had in offense.  Miami’s defense would have shut down Georgia Tech in the semifinals, and none of the triple option teams ever had success against the Hurricane defenses of those times.  Colorado’s I-bone would have been shut down.

 

1989: Colorado, Miami, Notre Dame, Michigan

Colorado was the only undefeated team, but they may have been the weakest of these four teams.  A Notre Dame-Michigan title game would have been a good one that year.

 

1988: Notre Dame, West Virginia, Miami, Auburn

This was another tough year to come up with team number four, as five or six other teams could have slid into this spot.  A third-seeded Miami team would have swept both playoff games by double digit margins.  Miami’s only loss that year was at Notre Dame by one point on one of the worst blown calls ever made in a game with championship implications.  Facing 4th down and 7 at the Notre Dame 11 yard line, Hurricane quarterback Steve Walsh threw a pass to receiver Cleveland Gary inside the five yard line.  Gary caught the ball and stretched forward.  The ball hit the goalline before any other part of Gary’s body touched the ground.  Not only did the referees not award Miami a touchdown, they at first called a fumble that was recovered by Notre Dame, after the ball was dropped just after Gary pounded it on the goalline.  Then to make a second mistake, the referees said it wasn’t a fumble and then gave the ball to Notre Dame on downs, when Miami only needed to get to the four yard line.  Miami would have beaten Notre Dame in a rematch by 14-17 points that year.

I heard a funny quip on sports radio the Monday after that game.  The host said that the referees, O’Brien, O’Malley, O’Sullivan, Kelly, Murphy,  and Ryan, decided that the goalline can cause a fumble.

 

1987: Miami, Oklahoma, Florida St., Syracuse

This was another one of those wide right years for Florida State in a one-point loss to Miami.  These two rivals would have most likely played for the title that year.

 

1986: Miami, Penn St., Oklahoma, Michigan

This would have been an interesting playoff, especially the Miami-Michigan game.  Bo Schembechler’s defense would have given Vinny Testaverde similar fits to the one Penn State gave him in the real Championship Game.  It might have been Penn State and Michigan playing for the title.

 

1985: Penn St., Oklahoma, Iowa, Miami

Florida at 9-1-1 might have been the best team at the end of the year, but the Gators were on probation.  This would have been a fairly even season with three close playoff games.

 

1984: Washington, Oklahoma, South Carolina, BYU

Yes, BYU was the real national champion that year, but they won it only because this was a down year in the major conferences.  Washington would have quickly dismissed BYU in the semifinals, while Oklahoma would have edged South Carolina.  Florida was on probation for the first of two years and went 9-1-1.  The Gators were probably the best team in the nation by the end of November, slaughtering ranked Georgia, Auburn, and Florida State teams by a combined 78-20.

 

1983: Nebraska, Texas, Auburn, Illinois

The actual national champion Miami would not have been invited to the Playoffs that year.  Illinois beat three top 10 teams that year by a combined 66-19 score.  10-1 Auburn only lost to 11-0 Texas.  Nebraska might have had trouble facing Illinois’s passing game since the Cornhuskers did not face a passing offense like this in the Big 8.  Texas beat three top 10 teams during the season and held opponents to less than 10 points per game.  This should have been an interesting Playoff season.

 

1982: Georgia, Penn St., SMU, Nebraska

SMU wasn’t yet on probation, even though this team was the one with all the violations.  The Pony Express would have given Penn State a tough game, while Georgia and Nebraska should have been a close one as well.  Any of the four teams could have won the title.  Nebraska’s lone loss was at Penn State by a field goal.

 

1981: Clemson, Georgia, Pittsburgh, Alabama

The two best teams in the nation that year were Clemson and Pittsburgh.  The Panthers were cruising along as the number one team and had a 10-0 record when they hosted Penn State in the regular season finale.  After scoring two quick touchdowns to take a 14-0 lead on the Nittany Lions.  Pitt outgained Penn State by more than 140 yards in the first quarter, and it looked like this would be a blowout win for the top-rated team.  Then, Penn State woke up and went on a scoring tear like Army in the World War II years, scoring 48 points in the last three quarters on a Pitt team that had given up just 92 points in its first ten games.  Poor Dan Marino–always a bridesmaid and never a bride. 

 

1980: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Florida St., Baylor

Hershel Walker would have rolled over Baylor in the semifinals, setting up an interesting championship game against either Pitt or FSU.  

 

1979: Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Florida St.

All four of these teams went unbeaten (USC had a tie), and this would have been an interesting playoff for sure.  This Alabama team got through the year unscathed against a rather weak schedule.  USC was probably the best team in the nation that year.  The Trojans were stacked with talent.  Both Charles White and Marcus Allen were the featured backs out of the I-formation.  Paul McDonald was one of the best passing quarterbacks the Trojans had up to that time.  Brad Budde was the best offensive lineman in the nation that year.  The USC secondary might have been the best one in college football history with Ronnie Lott, Dennis Smith, Jeff Fisher, Herb Ward, and Joey Browner.

 

1978: USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Penn St.

Penn State was the only undefeated team that year, but their schedule included a lot of easy wins.  USC won at Alabama and were probably the best team in the nation that year.

 

1977: Texas, Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma

Actual National Champion Notre Dame would not have made the Playoffs in a year where at least eight if not 12 teams were worthy.  Michigan appeared to be the superior team in the land for the second consecutive year, but the Wolverines came up short for the second year in a row.  Alabama probably had the best team at the end of the regular season, and the Tide won at Number 1 USC earlier in the year.  

 

1976: Pittsburgh, Michigan, USC, Georgia

Johnny Majors had Tony Dorsett as his tailback, and TD was nearly unstoppable.  Throw in a stingy defense that intercepted a lot of passes and recovered a lot of fumbles, and the Panthers would have probably won this Playoffs with ease.  When on their game, Michigan was good enough to play on an even level with Pitt, but up to this point in his career, no Bo Schembechler-coached team had won its final game of the year.

 

1975: Ohio St., Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona St.

Ohio State was undefeated with Heisman Trophy running back Archie Griffin and bulldozer Pete Johnson both topping 1,000 yards rushing.  Unlike many of Woody Hayes’ teams, this one had a decent passing attack with Cornelius Greene passing to Brian Baschnagel.  The Buckeyes beat four ranked teams in the regular season by a combined 100-29 score.  However, by the end of November, Alabama was clearly the best team in the nation.  An early stumble to open the season at Missouri, a school that pulled off several major upsets during this era, pushed the Tide out to sea.  Bear’s boys were unstoppable after that loss.  Alabama gave up just 46 points after that loss in week one, winning 10 games with ease.  Washington coach Don James after losing to ‘Bama 52-0 said they were the best team he had ever seen as a coach or player.

 

1974: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC

Oklahoma was the clear cut best team in the nation, but the Sooners were on probation this year.  OU would have easily beaten any of these four teams that year.  These four that weren’t on probation would have played three close games with USC likely coming out on top.

 

 

1973: Notre Dame, Alabama, Penn St., Ohio St.

This was one of the most incredible years in college football history.  Left out in this equation is a 10-0-1 Michigan team that tied 9-0-1 Ohio State but lost their quarterback for the season in the Big Game.

This group of four could have played this tournament a dozen times and each team might have won it three times each.  Our PiRate Ratings had Ohio State the number one team after the bowls that year.

 

1972: USC, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio St.

This was a time when the “haves” had a lot more than the “have nots,” and thus as many as 10 teams had playoff-worthy resumes.  In the end, it really didn’t matter this season, because USC was the best team in the nation by at least a touchdown over Oklahoma and more than 10 points over anybody else.  This was the best West Coast team ever. It had two future NFL quarterbacks in Mike Rae and Pat Haden.  Fullback Sam “Bam” Cunnigham blocked for Anthony Davis, while a trio of star receivers, Lynn Swann, J.K. McKay, and Charles Young, forced defenses to play three and four deep in the secondary.

 

1971: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan

The 1971 Nebraska team ranks as the all-time best team in PiRate Ratings’ history (1969 to present).  The 1971 Oklahoma team ranks as one of the 10 best in PiRate Ratings’ history.  These two teams were so far ahead of the rest of the nation.  Oklahoma would have beaten Alabama by at least three touchdowns, while Nebraska would have likely beaten Michigan by a score like 31-0.  The rematch for the National Championship might have been the best one ever had there been Playoffs back then.

1970: Ohio St., Texas, Nebraska, Arizona St.

Arizona State didn’t get any respect in 1970, but this undefeated team might have been strong enough to knock off Ohio State.  The schedule was suspect, but if you look at the roster, it was stocked with future NFL players.  Notre Dame and Tennessee were equally qualified to make the Playoffs this year, and a Committee might have given the edge to the Fighting Irish with Joe Theismann at quarterback.

 

1969: Penn St., Texas, Arkansas, USC

This is the year that the PiRate Ratings were born (although not named the PiRate Ratings until 2001).  It was because so  many teams were really good this season that I started making ratings.   If ever a season needed a 12-team Playoff, this is the one.  A case could have been made for 16 teams that year.  

If you ask me, Penn State would have won the title had there been Playoffs.  This Nittany Lion defense and special teams were among the best ever, as they scored or set up more points than they allowed.  When your number two and number three running backs are future All-pros Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell, and when your starting quarterback went undefeated for his entire football career (Youth league to College), how can you deny this 11-0 team that finished the 1969 season riding a 22-game winning streak and 30 game unbeaten streak?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 9, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 10-14, 2019

Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!  That’s a saying that goes back to the 1960’s, when a certain PiRate Captain was in school trying to impress this really cute blonde-haired, blue-eyed tomboy classmate.  It so happened that she and he were outside on the playground, and he was trying to teach her how to hit foul shots on the basketball goal.  She kept barely missing on those foul shots, when he made this little ditty up as it came to mind.  And, voila!  The pretty girl made three shots in a row.  The rest is history.  In the 1970’s, This girl would go on to become the star of her high school basketball team, setting the all-time single-season and career scoring marks.  She then enjoyed a four-year career as a starting guard for a Division 1 college team, playing in the NCAA Tournament.

 

The Captain figured it wouldn’t hurt to repeat that mantra in hopes that it would turn around the recent misfortunes of the PiRate Ratings.  The ratings in recent weeks have been just barely missing.

How much do you pay for these selections?  Remember, you usually get what you pay for, and that’s what these selections have been worth this season.  So, let’s hope we get more luck this week.

Without further adieu, here are the selections you should avoid like the plague.

 

PiRate Rating Selections

 

10-point Teasers, 3-game parlays

 

#1

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Syracuse

NC St.

+14.5

Virginia

Miami

+12.5

New Mexico

Colorado St.

+13.5

 

 

#2

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Indiana

Rutgers

+38

Navy

Tulsa

+11

Texas

Oklahoma

+21.5

 

 

#3

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Temple

Memphis

+16

Nebraska

Minnesota

+17.5

Boise St.

Hawaii

-1.5

 

 

#4

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Eastern Michigan

Ball St.

+9

Central Michigan

New Mexico St.

Pk

Arizona St.

Washington St.

+11

 

 

#5

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Oregon St.

Utah

+23.5

Ole Miss

Missouri

+22

Ohio

Northern Illinois

+3.5

 

 

#6

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Baylor

Texas Tech

-1

Vanderbilt

UNLV

-4.5

Wisconsin

Michigan St.

-0.5

 

 

#7

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Florida

LSU

+23.5

Nevada

San Jose St.

+8

Alabama

Texas A&M

-6.5

 

 

#8

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Florida Atlantic

Middle Tenn.

-0.5

UAB

UTSA

-2

Notre Dame

USC

-1

 

 

#9

Pick

Opponent

Spread

New England

N.Y. Jets

-6.5

Baltimore

Cincinnati

-1

Cleveland

Seattle

+12

 

 

#10

Pick

Opponent

Spread

New Orleans

Jacksonville

+11.5

Miami

Washington

+13.5

Arizona

Atlanta

+12.5

 

 

#11

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Denver

Tennessee

+7.5

Detroit

Green Bay

+14.5

Carolina

Tampa Bay

+8

 

 

Davey19  Selections

 

Pick

Opponent

Spread

UL-Monroe

Texas St.

-3

Virginia

Miami (Fla.)

+2.5

Colorado

Oregon

+21.5

Illinois

Michigan

+22.5

Nebraska

Minnesota

+8

Arkansas

Kentucky

+7

Air Force

Fresno St.

-3

Coming Friday–We will issue three money line selections, one an outright upset winner currently listed at +200, and two parlays.

 

 

October 6, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 7, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:16 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

October 9 to

October 12

Wednesday

October 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana

Appalchian St.

-2.1

-0.5

-1.6

 

 

Thursday

October 10

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Texas St.

Louisiana-Monroe

-1.5

-1.3

-1.5

North Carolina St.

Syracuse

-3.0

-2.7

-2.9

 

 

Friday

October 11

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia

1.0

0.0

1.5

New Mexico

Colorado St.

3.6

2.8

2.5

Oregon

Colorado

19.6

19.8

20.8

 

 

Saturday

October 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Indiana

Rutgers

24.6

23.7

24.7

Bowling Green

Toledo

-20.9

-21.7

-22.2

Illinois

Michigan

-20.3

-17.6

-21.7

Wake Forest

Louisville

10.8

10.5

11.9

Tulsa

Navy

5.1

3.1

5.8

Texas (n)

Oklahoma

-11.7

-10.6

-11.4

Temple

Memphis

-0.2

-1.3

-0.2

Minnesota

Nebraska

8.5

6.9

8.0

Duke

Georgia Tech

16.9

18.3

16.7

Coastal Carolina

Georgia St.

1.2

1.1

1.3

Purdue

Maryland

-0.8

-0.5

-0.8

West Virginia

Iowa St.

-6.4

-7.5

-7.1

Boise St.

Hawaii

12.0

9.8

13.1

Eastern Michigan

Ball St.

0.0

0.8

0.6

Marshall

Old Dominion

14.1

12.9

14.7

Central Michigan

New Mexico St.

10.1

8.5

10.7

Arizona St.

Washington St.

0.6

1.0

1.3

Oregon St.

Utah

-17.7

-15.0

-18.8

Arizona

Washington

-6.7

-6.0

-7.4

Missouri

Ole Miss

14.5

12.9

15.2

Georgia

South Carolina

19.2

19.3

20.1

Tennessee

Mississippi St.

-5.2

-1.5

-11.9

Akron

Kent St.

-11.5

-11.2

-12.6

Ohio

Northern Illinois

3.8

3.9

4.5

Kentucky

Arkansas

12.1

9.7

11.1

Baylor

Texas Tech

9.7

9.8

10.5

Western Michigan

Miami (O)

12.5

13.2

12.0

South Florida

BYU

-7.2

-6.1

-6.9

Houston

Cincinnati

-7.2

-4.7

-4.9

Tulane

Connecticut

32.1

28.8

34.3

Vanderbilt

UNLV

20.0

16.8

18.9

Wisconsin

Michigan St.

6.6

6.9

6.7

LSU

Florida

8.3

8.7

8.1

Nevada

San Jose St.

5.6

5.2

5.5

Texas A&M

Alabama

-15.8

-13.9

-18.0

Florida Atlantic

Middle Tennessee

6.0

6.5

6.8

UTSA

UAB

-10.7

-10.1

-11.5

Southern Miss.

North Texas

4.8

3.4

4.0

Western Kentucky

Army

-8.9

-8.0

-6.9

Florida Int’l.

Charlotte

7.8

7.0

7.6

Louisiana Tech

Massachusetts

29.6

27.4

30.4

Air Force

Fresno St.

0.9

1.7

1.2

Notre Dame

USC

16.8

14.3

16.6

Clemson

Florida St.

30.7

27.3

31.4

Iowa

Penn St.

-1.1

-2.0

-0.8

San Diego St.

Wyoming

3.3

3.1

2.7

FBS vs. FCS

Virginia Tech

Rhode Island

22.0

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

135.0

133.9

135.9

134.9

2

Alabama

135.7

132.2

136.4

134.7

3

Clemson

132.2

129.1

132.9

131.4

4

Georgia

128.6

126.9

129.1

128.2

5

L S U

128.0

125.6

127.4

127.0

6

Oklahoma

124.7

123.9

124.6

124.4

7

Penn St.

122.4

121.5

122.3

122.1

8

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.4

121.7

9

Notre Dame

121.1

119.3

121.2

120.5

10

Auburn

121.2

119.3

120.8

120.4

11

Wisconsin

120.5

120.1

120.5

120.4

12

Michigan

119.4

117.6

119.7

118.9

13

Utah

118.7

117.2

119.1

118.3

14

Iowa

118.4

116.5

118.6

117.8

15

Michigan St.

116.9

116.2

116.8

116.6

16

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

17

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

18

Texas A&M

116.9

115.3

115.4

115.9

19

Iowa St.

114.0

114.6

114.1

114.2

20

Mississippi St.

112.9

109.0

117.9

113.3

21

Texas

113.0

113.2

113.2

113.1

22

Baylor

112.7

112.9

112.4

112.7

23

Washington

112.2

111.8

113.2

112.4

24

South Carolina

112.3

110.6

112.0

111.6

25

Central Florida

111.2

110.3

112.1

111.2

26

Washington St.

110.9

109.9

111.0

110.6

27

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.6

110.0

28

Oklahoma St.

109.7

110.2

109.3

109.7

29

Arizona St.

108.4

107.8

109.3

108.5

30

Cincinnati

108.6

107.1

109.0

108.2

31

Virginia

107.8

108.0

107.9

107.9

32

Kansas St.

107.9

107.5

107.5

107.6

33

U S C

107.2

108.0

107.5

107.6

34

Duke

107.6

107.1

107.5

107.4

35

Maryland

107.8

107.3

107.0

107.4

36

Indiana

107.8

106.3

106.9

107.0

37

Boise St.

106.7

106.2

107.2

106.7

38

Northwestern

107.2

106.4

106.2

106.6

39

Syracuse

106.7

106.2

106.7

106.5

40

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

41

T C U

105.0

108.0

105.3

106.1

42

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

43

Stanford

106.1

105.3

105.9

105.8

44

Miami (Fla.)

105.8

105.0

106.4

105.7

45

Kentucky

106.6

105.0

105.0

105.5

46

Pittsburgh

105.5

105.2

105.6

105.4

47

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

48

Nebraska

105.0

106.0

104.6

105.2

49

Texas Tech

105.4

105.6

104.4

105.1

50

SMU

104.8

104.6

105.9

105.1

51

Appalachian St.

105.4

104.0

104.8

104.7

52

Wake Forest

104.7

104.2

105.3

104.7

53

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.7

104.7

54

Florida St.

104.5

104.8

104.5

104.6

55

West Virginia

104.6

104.1

104.0

104.2

56

Utah St.

104.3

103.1

105.3

104.2

57

Tennessee

104.7

104.5

103.0

104.1

58

Purdue

104.1

103.8

103.2

103.7

59

Arizona

102.6

102.8

102.8

102.7

60

Tulane

101.6

102.2

102.3

102.0

61

Temple

101.7

100.8

102.6

101.7

62

Virginia Tech

100.9

101.0

101.3

101.1

63

North Carolina St.

100.7

100.4

100.8

100.6

64

Louisiana

100.3

100.5

100.2

100.3

65

Boston College

100.2

100.0

100.5

100.2

66

Army

99.9

99.9

99.4

99.8

67

Houston

98.4

99.5

101.1

99.6

68

BYU

99.7

99.6

99.6

99.6

69

Hawaii

99.2

100.9

98.6

99.6

70

Fresno St.

99.2

99.8

99.6

99.5

71

Colorado

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

72

Vanderbilt

99.8

98.3

98.3

98.8

73

San Diego St.

98.2

100.0

98.1

98.8

74

Wyoming

97.8

99.9

98.4

98.7

75

Oregon St.

98.0

99.2

97.3

98.2

76

Western Michigan

98.5

97.4

98.2

98.0

77

Air Force

97.1

98.5

97.8

97.8

78

Arkansas

97.5

98.3

96.9

97.6

79

Louisville

96.4

96.2

95.9

96.1

80

Illinois

96.1

97.0

94.9

96.0

81

U C L A

96.4

96.1

95.4

96.0

82

Toledo

94.6

95.1

95.7

95.1

83

Southern Miss.

94.6

92.8

94.7

94.0

84

Kansas

93.6

94.6

93.4

93.9

85

Troy

94.0

94.2

92.9

93.7

86

Tulsa

93.1

93.8

94.1

93.7

87

Ohio

93.6

92.7

94.3

93.6

88

Georgia Southern

93.9

93.3

93.0

93.4

89

Georgia Tech

93.6

91.8

93.9

93.1

90

North Texas

92.8

92.4

93.7

93.0

91

Florida Atlantic

92.5

92.0

93.4

92.6

92

Northern Illinois

92.3

91.3

92.3

92.0

93

Navy

90.5

93.2

90.8

91.5

94

Louisiana Tech

91.2

91.0

91.1

91.1

95

Florida Int’l.

90.8

90.6

91.0

90.8

96

Arkansas St.

90.6

90.8

90.3

90.6

97

South Florida

89.5

90.5

89.7

89.9

98

Marshall

89.3

88.7

90.2

89.4

99

Middle Tennessee

89.5

88.5

89.6

89.2

100

Buffalo

88.7

89.1

89.7

89.1

101

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

102

Western Kentucky

88.0

89.0

89.6

88.8

103

U A B

87.8

89.6

88.5

88.7

104

Ball St.

88.7

88.2

88.6

88.5

105

Nevada

87.9

89.6

87.3

88.3

106

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

86.8

88.7

88.0

107

Louisiana-Monroe

87.7

88.5

87.5

87.9

108

Georgia St.

87.5

88.8

86.8

87.7

109

Kent St.

87.3

87.2

87.6

87.4

110

Coastal Carolina

86.7

87.9

86.1

86.9

111

Eastern Michigan

86.2

86.5

86.7

86.5

112

Charlotte

86.1

86.6

86.4

86.4

113

San Jose St.

85.3

87.4

84.8

85.8

114

Rutgers

86.1

85.7

85.2

85.7

115

Central Michigan

84.6

85.4

85.3

85.1

116

Texas St.

83.7

84.6

83.5

83.9

117

East Carolina

82.7

84.6

82.6

83.3

118

U N L V

82.3

84.1

81.9

82.8

119

New Mexico

81.8

84.6

80.7

82.4

120

Colorado St.

80.6

84.4

80.8

81.9

121

Rice

80.3

81.7

79.7

80.6

122

Old Dominion

78.3

78.8

78.4

78.5

123

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.1

74.5

75.4

125

South Alabama

74.1

77.0

73.4

74.9

126

Akron

73.8

74.1

73.0

73.6

127

Connecticut

72.0

75.9

70.6

72.8

128

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

129

U T E P

67.1

71.9

67.7

68.9

130

Massachusetts

64.6

66.6

63.7

65.0

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.2

110.3

112.1

111.2

1-1

4-2

Cincinnati

108.6

107.1

109.0

108.2

1-0

4-1

Temple

101.7

100.8

102.6

101.7

1-0

4-1

South Florida

89.5

90.5

89.7

89.9

1-1

2-3

East Carolina

82.7

84.6

82.6

83.3

0-2

3-3

Connecticut

72.0

75.9

70.6

72.8

0-2

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

1-0

5-0

SMU

104.8

104.6

105.9

105.1

2-0

6-0

Tulane

101.6

102.2

102.3

102.0

1-0

4-1

Houston

98.4

99.5

101.1

99.6

0-1

2-3

Tulsa

93.1

93.8

94.1

93.7

0-1

2-3

Navy

90.5

93.2

90.8

91.5

1-1

3-1

AAC Averages

96.6

97.3

97.2

97.0

 

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.2

129.1

132.9

131.4

3-0

5-0

Syracuse

106.7

106.2

106.7

106.5

0-1

3-2

Wake Forest

104.7

104.2

105.3

104.7

1-0

5-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.8

104.5

104.6

2-1

3-2

North Carolina St.

100.7

100.4

100.8

100.6

0-1

3-2

Boston College

100.2

100.0

100.5

100.2

1-2

3-3

Louisville

96.4

96.2

95.9

96.1

1-1

3-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.8

108.0

107.9

107.9

2-0

4-1

Duke

107.6

107.1

107.5

107.4

1-1

3-2

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

2-1

3-3

Miami (Fla.)

105.8

105.0

106.4

105.7

0-2

2-3

Pittsburgh

105.5

105.2

105.6

105.4

1-1

4-2

Virginia Tech

100.9

101.0

101.3

101.1

1-2

3-2

Georgia Tech

93.6

91.8

93.9

93.1

0-2

1-4

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

124.7

123.9

124.6

124.4

2-0

5-0

Iowa St.

114.0

114.6

114.1

114.2

1-1

3-2

Texas

113.0

113.2

113.2

113.1

2-0

4-1

Baylor

112.7

112.9

112.4

112.7

2-0

5-0

Oklahoma St.

109.7

110.2

109.3

109.7

1-2

4-2

Kansas St.

107.9

107.5

107.5

107.6

0-2

3-2

T C U

105.0

108.0

105.3

106.1

1-1

3-2

Texas Tech

105.4

105.6

104.4

105.1

1-1

3-2

West Virginia

104.6

104.1

104.0

104.2

1-1

3-2

Kansas

93.6

94.6

93.4

93.9

0-3

2-4

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.8

109.1

 

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

135.0

133.9

135.9

134.9

3-0

6-0

Penn St.

122.4

121.5

122.3

122.1

2-0

5-0

Michigan

119.4

117.6

119.7

118.9

2-1

4-1

Michigan St.

116.9

116.2

116.8

116.6

2-1

4-2

Maryland

107.8

107.3

107.0

107.4

1-1

3-2

Indiana

107.8

106.3

106.9

107.0

0-2

3-2

Rutgers

86.1

85.7

85.2

85.7

0-3

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.1

120.5

120.4

2-0

5-0

Iowa

118.4

116.5

118.6

117.8

1-1

4-1

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.6

110.0

2-0

5-0

Northwestern

107.2

106.4

106.2

106.6

0-3

1-4

Nebraska

105.0

106.0

104.6

105.2

2-1

4-2

Purdue

104.1

103.8

103.2

103.7

0-2

1-4

Illinois

96.1

97.0

94.9

96.0

0-2

2-3

Big Ten Averages

111.2

110.6

110.8

110.9

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

92.5

92.0

93.4

92.6

1-0

3-2

Florida Int’l.

90.8

90.6

91.0

90.8

0-2

2-3

Marshall

89.3

88.7

90.2

89.4

0-1

2-3

Middle Tennessee

89.5

88.5

89.6

89.2

1-0

2-3

Western Kentucky

88.0

89.0

89.6

88.8

3-0

3-2

Charlotte

86.1

86.6

86.4

86.4

0-1

2-3

Old Dominion

78.3

78.8

78.4

78.5

0-1

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.6

92.8

94.7

94.0

1-0

3-2

North Texas

92.8

92.4

93.7

93.0

1-0

2-3

Louisiana Tech

91.2

91.0

91.1

91.1

2-0

4-1

U A B

87.8

89.6

88.5

88.7

1-1

4-1

Rice

80.3

81.7

79.7

80.6

0-2

0-6

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.1

74.5

75.4

1-1

2-3

U T E P

67.1

71.9

67.7

68.9

0-2

1-4

CUSA Averages

85.9

86.5

86.3

86.2

 

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.1

119.3

121.2

120.5

x

4-1

Army

99.9

99.9

99.4

99.8

x

3-2

BYU

99.7

99.6

99.6

99.6

x

2-3

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

x

4-2

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

x

0-6

Massachusetts

64.6

66.6

63.7

65.0

x

1-5

Indep. Averages

91.9

92.5

91.7

92.0

 

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.6

92.7

94.3

93.6

1-0

2-3

Buffalo

88.7

89.1

89.7

89.1

0-2

2-4

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

86.8

88.7

88.0

1-0

2-3

Kent St.

87.3

87.2

87.6

87.4

1-0

2-3

Akron

73.8

74.1

73.0

73.6

0-1

0-5

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

0-1

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.5

97.4

98.2

98.0

1-1

3-3

Toledo

94.6

95.1

95.7

95.1

1-0

4-1

Northern Illinois

92.3

91.3

92.3

92.0

0-1

1-4

Ball St.

88.7

88.2

88.6

88.5

1-0

2-3

Eastern Michigan

86.2

86.5

86.7

86.5

0-1

3-2

Central Michigan

84.6

85.4

85.3

85.1

2-1

3-3

MAC Averages

87.4

87.1

87.7

87.4

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.7

106.2

107.2

106.7

2-0

5-0

Utah St.

104.3

103.1

105.3

104.2

2-0

3-2

Wyoming

97.8

99.9

98.4

98.7

1-0

4-1

Air Force

97.1

98.5

97.8

97.8

1-1

3-2

New Mexico

81.8

84.6

80.7

82.4

0-1

2-3

Colorado St.

80.6

84.4

80.8

81.9

0-2

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Hawaii

99.2

100.9

98.6

99.6

1-0

4-1

Fresno St.

99.2

99.8

99.6

99.5

0-0

2-2

San Diego St.

98.2

100.0

98.1

98.8

1-1

4-1

Nevada

87.9

89.6

87.3

88.3

0-1

3-2

San Jose St.

85.3

87.4

84.8

85.8

1-1

3-2

U N L V

82.3

84.1

81.9

82.8

0-2

1-4

MWC Averages

93.4

94.9

93.4

93.9

 

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

2-0

4-1

Washington

112.2

111.8

113.2

112.4

1-2

4-2

Washington St.

110.9

109.9

111.0

110.6

0-2

3-2

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

1-2

4-2

Stanford

106.1

105.3

105.9

105.8

2-2

3-3

Oregon St.

98.0

99.2

97.3

98.2

1-1

2-3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

118.7

117.2

119.1

118.3

1-1

4-1

Arizona St.

108.4

107.8

109.3

108.5

1-1

4-1

U S C

107.2

108.0

107.5

107.6

2-1

3-2

Arizona

102.6

102.8

102.8

102.7

2-0

4-1

Colorado

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

1-1

3-2

U C L A

96.4

96.1

95.4

96.0

1-2

1-5

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

128.6

126.9

129.1

128.2

2-0

5-0

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.4

121.7

4-0

6-0

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

1-0

4-1

South Carolina

112.3

110.6

112.0

111.6

1-2

2-3

Kentucky

106.6

105.0

105.0

105.5

0-3

2-3

Tennessee

104.7

104.5

103.0

104.1

0-2

1-4

Vanderbilt

99.8

98.3

98.3

98.8

0-3

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.7

132.2

136.4

134.7

2-0

5-0

L S U

128.0

125.6

127.4

127.0

1-0

5-0

Auburn

121.2

119.3

120.8

120.4

2-1

5-1

Texas A&M

116.9

115.3

115.4

115.9

1-1

3-2

Mississippi St.

112.9

109.0

117.9

113.3

1-1

3-2

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.7

104.7

2-1

3-3

Arkansas

97.5

98.3

96.9

97.6

0-2

2-3

SEC Averages

114.9

113.1

114.7

114.2

 

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.4

104.0

104.8

104.7

1-0

4-0

Troy

94.0

94.2

92.9

93.7

0-1

2-3

Georgia Southern

93.9

93.3

93.0

93.4

1-1

2-3

Georgia St.

87.5

88.8

86.8

87.7

1-1

3-2

Coastal Carolina

86.7

87.9

86.1

86.9

0-1

3-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.3

100.5

100.2

100.3

1-0

4-1

Arkansas St.

90.6

90.8

90.3

90.6

1-1

3-3

Louisiana-Monroe

87.7

88.5

87.5

87.9

1-0

2-3

Texas St.

83.7

84.6

83.5

83.9

1-0

2-3

South Alabama

74.1

77.0

73.4

74.9

0-2

1-5

SBC Averages

90.4

91.0

89.9

90.4

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

114.2

2

BTen

110.9

3

B12

109.1

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.1

6

AAC

97.0

7

MWC

93.9

8

Ind

92.0

9

SUN

90.4

10

MAC

87.4

11

CUSA

86.2

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

Cincinnati

5

Hawaii

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

The What-if It Were To Happen Edition

 

Submitted for your disapproval, what happens if Clemson loses a game this year to say Florida State, North Carolina St., South Carolina, or Virginia in the ACC Championship Game?  With their weak schedule, the Tigers would most likely not receive a bid to the NCAA Playoffs.

 

The Pac-12 has already eliminated itself from consideration.  We won’t even give Oregon a chance at 11-1, unless a lot of teams fall victims to upsets–too many to contemplate.

 

The Big Ten has three incredible teams in Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Additionally, Minnesota is still undefeated, and Michigan is, well, Michigan.  More than likely one Big Ten team will run the table and finish 13-0 to guarantee a spot in the Playoffs.  There could be a one-loss team in consideration, but with power at the top, it is possible that there will be only an undefeated or one loss team and multiple two-loss teams.

 

In the Big 12, Oklahoma always tends to slip up against somebody but then recovers to win the Big 12 Championship Game.  If the Sooners were to lose to Texas, Baylor, or Iowa State, or if they lost in the Big 12 Championship Game, would a one-loss OU team be good enough to make the top four?

 

Now consider the giant.  Let’s say Alabama, LSU, and Georgia combine to have one undefeated team and two, one-loss teams.  Say, Alabama goes 12-0 and wins the SEC Championship Game over 12-0 Georgia, while LSU only loses at Alabama in a close game to have a record of 11-1.

 

Could it be that THREE SEC teams would finish ranked in the top 4?  That’s the scenario we present today in our bowl and playoff projections.  We are not saying this is a certainty; we just wanted to show you how it might play out if Alabama, Georgia, and LSU finished ranked in the top 4.

 

You may ask if any conference has ever had three of the top four teams in a season, and not only will we answer, we’ll go one better.  In 1971, Nebraska finished number one; Oklahoma was number two; and Colorado was number three, all from the old Big 8 Conference.  It almost happened in 2011, when Alabama finished number one, LSU number two, and Arkansas number five.   That Arkansas team lost to just Alabama and LSU that year. 

 

Take a look at how this plays out.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Wyoming]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Troy

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Tulane

Independence

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Maryland

Military

ACC

AAC

Syracuse

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Nebraska

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Ole Miss

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Utah

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Colorado

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Wake Forest

Baylor

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

Notre Dame

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

West Virginia

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona

Michigan St.

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Army]

Florida St.

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Clemson

Wisconsin

Belk

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

North Carolina St.

Washington

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Texas Tech

[Arkansas St.]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

Fresno St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas

Arizona St.

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Virginia

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Florida

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Kansas St.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Mississippi St.

Michigan

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Indiana

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio

Appalachian St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Georgia

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

LSU

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 29, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 30, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:31 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Thursday

October 3

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

South Alabama

Georgia Southern

-19.4

-15.7

-19.6

East Carolina

Temple

-16.8

-13.6

-18.1

 

 

Friday

October 4

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Cincinnati

Central Florida

-0.5

-1.3

-1.4

San Jose St.

New Mexico

5.4

4.3

5.5

 

 

Saturday

October 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Connecticut

South Florida

-11.8

-8.9

-13.2

Louisville

Boston College

-1.5

-1.7

-2.9

Georgia Tech

North Carolina

-8.7

-10.7

-9.4

West Virginia

Texas

-4.9

-5.3

-5.2

Penn St.

Purdue

18.6

17.5

19.1

Northern Illinois

Ball St.

9.4

8.9

9.9

Army

Tulane

4.0

3.7

3.0

Duke

Pittsburgh

6.1

6.1

6.3

Kansas St.

Baylor

3.4

3.0

3.7

Rutgers

Maryland

-13.8

-13.5

-13.6

Texas Tech

Oklahoma St.

-4.5

-5.0

-5.6

Wisconsin

Kent St.

33.9

33.4

33.2

Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan

-6.7

-6.4

-6.8

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia Tech

11.4

10.5

12.2

Missouri

Troy

25.2

22.5

26.6

New Mexico St.

Liberty

-8.1

-7.0

-8.3

Colorado

Arizona

0.4

0.2

0.4

Colorado St.

San Diego St.

-14.5

-12.5

-14.3

UCLA

Oregon St.

6.4

4.8

6.4

Oregon

California

13.5

13.9

13.7

Stanford

Washington

-6.4

-6.9

-8.1

SMU

Tulsa

15.1

14.3

15.4

Michigan

Iowa

3.7

3.5

3.5

Minnesota

Illinois

15.9

14.4

15.7

UAB

Rice

9.6

9.8

10.5

Nebraska

Northwestern

0.0

1.9

0.5

Tennessee

Georgia

-19.6

-18.2

-22.1

Navy

Air Force

-5.3

-3.8

-6.0

Toledo

Western Michigan

-3.8

-2.3

-2.6

Kansas

Oklahoma

-28.4

-26.5

-28.8

Buffalo

Ohio

-2.7

-1.3

-2.7

Iowa St.

TCU

8.1

5.1

7.5

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

3.6

4.0

4.5

Middle Tennessee

Marshall

0.2

-0.4

-1.0

Notre Dame

Bowling Green

51.5

50.0

51.8

Georgia St.

Arkansas St.

-4.0

-2.7

-4.6

Old Dominion

Western Kentucky

-4.6

-4.8

-5.8

Florida

Auburn

2.0

1.1

1.7

Florida Int’l.

Massachusetts

25.5

22.9

26.4

Louisiana-Monroe

Memphis

-15.0

-14.4

-16.1

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

20.5

19.9

21.3

LSU

Utah St.

24.0

22.4

21.7

UTEP

UTSA

-4.9

-2.1

-3.7

UNLV

Boise St.

-21.4

-18.8

-22.0

 

There are no FBS vs. FCS Games Scheduled This Week

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

134.7

133.5

135.5

134.6

2

Alabama

135.4

131.9

136.1

134.4

3

Clemson

131.9

128.8

132.6

131.1

4

Georgia

128.0

126.3

128.6

127.6

5

L S U

126.8

124.2

125.8

125.6

6

Oklahoma

124.8

124.0

124.9

124.6

7

Auburn

122.4

120.5

122.2

121.7

8

Penn St.

121.1

120.0

120.9

120.7

9

Florida

121.5

118.6

120.9

120.3

10

Notre Dame

120.9

119.1

121.0

120.3

11

Wisconsin

119.2

118.7

119.0

119.0

12

Michigan

119.1

117.2

119.3

118.5

13

Utah

118.4

116.9

118.8

118.0

14

Iowa

118.5

116.7

118.8

118.0

15

Michigan St.

117.2

116.6

117.2

117.0

16

Oregon

116.5

116.5

117.6

116.9

17

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

18

Texas A&M

116.6

115.0

115.1

115.6

19

Washington

113.8

113.5

115.1

114.1

20

Mississippi St.

112.6

108.7

117.6

113.0

21

Texas

112.7

112.8

112.7

112.7

22

Iowa St.

112.3

112.6

112.2

112.4

23

Central Florida

111.8

111.0

112.9

111.9

24

Oklahoma St.

111.3

111.9

111.1

111.4

25

South Carolina

112.0

110.3

111.7

111.3

26

Kansas St.

110.6

110.3

110.4

110.4

27

Washington St.

110.6

109.6

110.7

110.3

28

Baylor

110.2

110.3

109.7

110.1

29

Minnesota

109.9

109.3

108.8

109.3

30

T C U

107.2

110.5

107.7

108.5

31

Arizona St.

108.1

107.5

109.0

108.2

32

Duke

108.2

107.8

108.3

108.1

33

Miami (Fla.)

107.9

107.1

108.8

107.9

34

Cincinnati

108.3

106.7

108.5

107.8

35

Virginia

107.5

107.7

107.6

107.6

36

U S C

106.9

107.7

107.2

107.3

37

Northwestern

107.7

106.9

106.8

107.1

38

Indiana

107.5

106.0

106.6

106.7

39

Boise St.

106.5

105.8

106.8

106.4

40

Syracuse

106.4

105.9

106.4

106.2

41

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

42

Utah St.

105.8

104.8

107.2

105.9

43

North Carolina

105.4

105.5

106.5

105.8

44

SMU

105.4

105.2

106.6

105.7

45

Purdue

105.6

105.5

104.8

105.3

46

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

47

Kentucky

106.3

104.7

104.7

105.2

48

Maryland

105.6

105.0

104.6

105.1

49

Nebraska

104.8

105.8

104.3

105.0

50

Pittsburgh

105.1

104.7

105.0

104.9

51

Tennessee

105.3

105.1

103.5

104.6

52

West Virginia

104.9

104.5

104.5

104.6

53

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.8

104.6

104.5

54

Wake Forest

104.4

103.9

105.0

104.4

55

Florida St.

104.2

104.5

104.2

104.3

56

Stanford

104.5

103.6

104.0

104.0

57

Texas Tech

103.8

103.9

102.6

103.4

58

Ole Miss

103.0

102.0

102.5

102.5

59

Arizona

102.4

102.5

102.4

102.4

60

Temple

101.9

100.9

103.0

101.9

61

Vanderbilt

102.4

101.0

101.0

101.5

62

Army

101.4

101.5

101.0

101.3

63

Boston College

100.7

100.6

101.3

100.9

64

Tulane

100.4

100.9

101.0

100.8

65

North Carolina St.

100.4

100.1

100.5

100.3

66

Louisiana

100.1

100.3

100.0

100.1

67

Colorado

99.8

99.7

99.9

99.8

68

Western Michigan

100.1

99.0

99.9

99.7

69

Virginia Tech

99.5

99.6

99.6

99.6

70

BYU

99.5

99.4

99.4

99.4

71

Houston

98.1

99.2

100.8

99.3

72

Hawaii

98.9

100.6

98.3

99.3

73

Fresno St.

98.9

99.5

99.3

99.2

74

Air Force

98.1

99.4

99.0

98.8

75

San Diego St.

98.2

99.9

98.1

98.7

76

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.2

98.7

77

Wyoming

97.5

99.6

98.1

98.4

78

Arkansas

97.2

98.0

96.6

97.3

79

Illinois

97.0

97.9

96.0

97.0

80

Louisville

96.2

95.9

95.4

95.8

81

Oregon St.

95.7

96.9

94.8

95.8

82

Georgia Southern

95.2

94.5

94.5

94.8

83

Troy

94.4

94.6

93.3

94.1

84

Southern Miss.

94.4

92.6

94.5

93.8

85

Northern Illinois

94.1

93.1

94.3

93.8

86

Toledo

93.3

93.8

94.3

93.8

87

Ohio

93.7

92.8

94.6

93.7

88

Georgia Tech

94.2

92.3

94.6

93.7

89

Kansas

93.5

94.5

93.1

93.7

90

Tulsa

92.8

93.5

93.7

93.3

91

North Texas

92.6

92.2

93.5

92.8

92

Florida Atlantic

92.3

91.8

93.2

92.4

93

Arkansas St.

92.4

92.6

92.3

92.4

94

Marshall

90.7

90.2

91.8

90.9

95

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.8

90.9

90.9

96

Navy

89.8

92.6

89.9

90.8

97

Eastern Michigan

89.7

90.1

90.4

90.1

98

Florida Int’l.

89.3

88.9

89.4

89.2

99

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

100

Buffalo

88.6

89.0

89.4

89.0

101

Rutgers

89.3

89.0

88.6

89.0

102

South Florida

88.4

89.4

88.5

88.8

103

Kent St.

88.3

88.3

88.8

88.5

104

U A B

87.6

89.3

88.1

88.4

105

Middle Tennessee

88.4

87.3

88.3

88.0

106

Nevada

87.6

89.3

87.0

88.0

107

Miami (Ohio)

88.3

86.6

88.5

87.8

108

Louisiana-Monroe

87.4

88.2

87.2

87.6

109

Western Kentucky

86.7

87.6

88.2

87.5

110

Ball St.

87.2

86.7

86.9

86.9

111

Coastal Carolina

86.5

87.7

85.9

86.7

112

Charlotte

85.9

86.4

86.2

86.2

113

Georgia St.

86.0

87.3

85.1

86.1

114

San Jose St.

85.0

86.9

84.3

85.4

115

Texas St.

83.5

84.4

83.3

83.7

116

U N L V

82.5

84.5

82.3

83.1

117

New Mexico

82.1

85.1

81.2

82.8

118

East Carolina

82.2

84.2

81.9

82.8

119

Colorado St.

80.6

84.5

80.8

82.0

120

Central Michigan

81.1

81.8

81.6

81.5

121

Rice

80.5

82.0

80.1

80.9

122

Old Dominion

79.6

80.2

79.8

79.9

123

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.7

74.1

75.1

125

Connecticut

73.6

77.5

72.3

74.5

126

South Alabama

73.3

76.3

72.4

74.0

127

Akron

73.6

73.9

72.8

73.4

128

Bowling Green

72.3

72.0

72.1

72.2

129

U T E P

67.6

72.6

68.4

69.5

130

Massachusetts

66.8

69.0

66.0

67.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

114.0

2

BTen

110.9

3

B12

109.2

4

P12

106.8

5

ACC

105.1

6

AAC

96.9

7

MWC

94.0

8

Ind

92.6

9

SUN

90.4

10

MAC

87.5

11

CUSA

86.1

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

Central Florida

5

Hawaii

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.8

111.0

112.9

111.9

1-0

4-1

Cincinnati

108.3

106.7

108.5

107.8

0-0

3-1

Temple

101.9

100.9

103.0

101.9

0-0

3-1

South Florida

88.4

89.4

88.5

88.8

0-1

1-3

East Carolina

82.2

84.2

81.9

82.8

0-1

3-2

Connecticut

73.6

77.5

72.3

74.5

0-1

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

105.4

105.2

106.6

105.7

1-0

5-0

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

1-0

4-0

Tulane

100.4

100.9

101.0

100.8

1-0

3-1

Houston

98.1

99.2

100.8

99.3

0-1

2-3

Tulsa

92.8

93.5

93.7

93.3

0-0

2-2

Navy

89.8

92.6

89.9

90.8

1-1

2-1

AAC Averages

96.5

97.2

97.1

96.9

 

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

131.9

128.8

132.6

131.1

3-0

5-0

Syracuse

106.4

105.9

106.4

106.2

0-1

3-2

Wake Forest

104.4

103.9

105.0

104.4

1-0

5-0

Florida St.

104.2

104.5

104.2

104.3

2-1

3-2

Boston College

100.7

100.6

101.3

100.9

1-1

3-2

North Carolina St.

100.4

100.1

100.5

100.3

0-1

3-2

Louisville

96.2

95.9

95.4

95.8

0-1

2-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Duke

108.2

107.8

108.3

108.1

1-0

3-1

Miami (Fla.)

107.9

107.1

108.8

107.9

0-1

2-2

Virginia

107.5

107.7

107.6

107.6

2-0

4-1

North Carolina

105.4

105.5

106.5

105.8

1-1

2-3

Pittsburgh

105.1

104.7

105.0

104.9

0-1

3-2

Virginia Tech

99.5

99.6

99.6

99.6

0-2

2-2

Georgia Tech

94.2

92.3

94.6

93.7

0-1

1-3

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

124.8

124.0

124.9

124.6

1-0

4-0

Texas

112.7

112.8

112.7

112.7

1-0

3-1

Iowa St.

112.3

112.6

112.2

112.4

0-1

2-2

Oklahoma St.

111.3

111.9

111.1

111.4

1-1

4-1

Kansas St.

110.6

110.3

110.4

110.4

0-1

3-1

Baylor

110.2

110.3

109.7

110.1

1-0

4-0

T C U

107.2

110.5

107.7

108.5

1-0

3-1

West Virginia

104.9

104.5

104.5

104.6

1-0

3-1

Texas Tech

103.8

103.9

102.6

103.4

0-1

2-2

Kansas

93.5

94.5

93.1

93.7

0-2

2-3

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.9

109.2

 

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

134.7

133.5

135.5

134.6

2-0

5-0

Penn St.

121.1

120.0

120.9

120.7

1-0

4-0

Michigan

119.1

117.2

119.3

118.5

1-1

3-1

Michigan St.

117.2

116.6

117.2

117.0

2-0

4-1

Indiana

107.5

106.0

106.6

106.7

0-2

3-2

Maryland

105.6

105.0

104.6

105.1

0-1

2-2

Rutgers

89.3

89.0

88.6

89.0

0-2

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

119.2

118.7

119.0

119.0

2-0

4-0

Iowa

118.5

116.7

118.8

118.0

1-0

4-0

Minnesota

109.9

109.3

108.8

109.3

1-0

4-0

Northwestern

107.7

106.9

106.8

107.1

0-2

1-3

Purdue

105.6

105.5

104.8

105.3

0-1

1-3

Nebraska

104.8

105.8

104.3

105.0

1-1

3-2

Illinois

97.0

97.9

96.0

97.0

0-1

2-2

Big Ten Averages

111.2

110.6

110.8

110.9

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

92.3

91.8

93.2

92.4

1-0

3-2

Marshall

90.7

90.2

91.8

90.9

0-0

2-2

Florida Int’l.

89.3

88.9

89.4

89.2

0-2

1-3

Middle Tennessee

88.4

87.3

88.3

88.0

0-0

1-3

Western Kentucky

86.7

87.6

88.2

87.5

2-0

2-2

Charlotte

85.9

86.4

86.2

86.2

0-1

2-3

Old Dominion

79.6

80.2

79.8

79.9

0-0

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.4

92.6

94.5

93.8

1-0

3-2

North Texas

92.6

92.2

93.5

92.8

1-0

2-3

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.8

90.9

90.9

2-0

4-1

U A B

87.6

89.3

88.1

88.4

0-1

3-1

Rice

80.5

82.0

80.1

80.9

0-1

0-5

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.7

74.1

75.1

0-1

1-3

U T E P

67.6

72.6

68.4

69.5

0-1

1-3

CUSA Averages

85.8

86.3

86.2

86.1

 

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.9

119.1

121.0

120.3

x

3-1

Army

101.4

101.5

101.0

101.3

x

3-1

BYU

99.5

99.4

99.4

99.4

x

2-3

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

x

3-2

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

x

0-5

Massachusetts

66.8

69.0

66.0

67.3

x

1-4

Indep. Averages

92.4

93.1

92.3

92.6

 

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.7

92.8

94.6

93.7

0-0

1-3

Buffalo

88.6

89.0

89.4

89.0

0-1

2-3

Kent St.

88.3

88.3

88.8

88.5

1-0

2-2

Miami (Ohio)

88.3

86.6

88.5

87.8

1-0

2-3

Akron

73.6

73.9

72.8

73.4

0-1

0-5

Bowling Green

72.3

72.0

72.1

72.2

0-1

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

100.1

99.0

99.9

99.7

1-0

3-2

Northern Illinois

94.1

93.1

94.3

93.8

0-0

1-3

Toledo

93.3

93.8

94.3

93.8

0-0

3-1

Eastern Michigan

89.7

90.1

90.4

90.1

0-0

3-1

Ball St.

87.2

86.7

86.9

86.9

0-0

1-3

Central Michigan

81.1

81.8

81.6

81.5

1-1

2-3

MAC Averages

87.5

87.3

87.8

87.5

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.5

105.8

106.8

106.4

1-0

4-0

Utah St.

105.8

104.8

107.2

105.9

2-0

3-1

Air Force

98.1

99.4

99.0

98.8

1-1

3-1

Wyoming

97.5

99.6

98.1

98.4

1-0

4-1

New Mexico

82.1

85.1

81.2

82.8

0-0

2-2

Colorado St.

80.6

84.5

80.8

82.0

0-1

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Hawaii

98.9

100.6

98.3

99.3

1-0

4-1

Fresno St.

98.9

99.5

99.3

99.2

0-0

2-2

San Diego St.

98.2

99.9

98.1

98.7

0-1

3-1

Nevada

87.6

89.3

87.0

88.0

0-1

3-2

San Jose St.

85.0

86.9

84.3

85.4

0-1

2-2

U N L V

82.5

84.5

82.3

83.1

0-1

1-3

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.5

94.0

 

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.5

116.5

117.6

116.9

1-0

3-1

Washington

113.8

113.5

115.1

114.1

1-1

4-1

Washington St.

110.6

109.6

110.7

110.3

0-2

3-2

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

1-1

4-1

Stanford

104.5

103.6

104.0

104.0

1-2

2-3

Oregon St.

95.7

96.9

94.8

95.8

0-1

1-3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

118.4

116.9

118.8

118.0

1-1

4-1

Arizona St.

108.1

107.5

109.0

108.2

1-1

4-1

U S C

106.9

107.7

107.2

107.3

2-1

3-2

Arizona

102.4

102.5

102.4

102.4

1-0

3-1

Colorado

99.8

99.7

99.9

99.8

1-0

3-1

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.2

98.7

1-1

1-4

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.8

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

128.0

126.3

128.6

127.6

1-0

4-0

Florida

121.5

118.6

120.9

120.3

3-0

5-0

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

1-0

3-1

South Carolina

112.0

110.3

111.7

111.3

1-2

2-3

Kentucky

106.3

104.7

104.7

105.2

0-3

2-3

Tennessee

105.3

105.1

103.5

104.6

0-1

1-3

Vanderbilt

102.4

101.0

101.0

101.5

0-2

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.4

131.9

136.1

134.4

2-0

5-0

L S U

126.8

124.2

125.8

125.6

1-0

4-0

Auburn

122.4

120.5

122.2

121.7

2-0

5-0

Texas A&M

116.6

115.0

115.1

115.6

1-1

3-2

Mississippi St.

112.6

108.7

117.6

113.0

1-1

3-2

Ole Miss

103.0

102.0

102.5

102.5

1-1

2-3

Arkansas

97.2

98.0

96.6

97.3

0-2

2-3

SEC Averages

114.7

112.9

114.5

114.0

 

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.8

104.6

104.5

1-0

4-0

Georgia Southern

95.2

94.5

94.5

94.8

0-1

1-3

Troy

94.4

94.6

93.3

94.1

0-1

2-2

Coastal Carolina

86.5

87.7

85.9

86.7

0-1

3-2

Georgia St.

86.0

87.3

85.1

86.1

0-1

2-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.1

100.3

100.0

100.1

1-0

4-1

Arkansas St.

92.4

92.6

92.3

92.4

1-0

3-2

Louisiana-Monroe

87.4

88.2

87.2

87.6

1-0

2-2

Texas St.

83.5

84.4

83.3

83.7

1-0

2-3

South Alabama

73.3

76.3

72.4

74.0

0-1

1-4

SBC Averages

90.4

91.0

89.9

90.4

 

 

Bowls and Playoffs Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Western Michigan

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Temple

Georgia Southern

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Marshall

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Memphis

Southern Miss.

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Tulane

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[West.  Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Syracuse

East Carolina

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

TCU

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Oregon

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

Arizona

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

LSU

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Wyoming]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Nebraska

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Miami (O)]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Alabama

Belk

ACC

SEC

Duke

[Army]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Colorado

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Boston College]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Troy

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Washington

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Auburn

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[North Carolina St.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Minnesota

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Ohio

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[California]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Eastern Michigan

Appalachian St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Georgia

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Oklahoma

Clemson

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

 

One full month into the season, and the Playoff Committee and Bowl Committees look to be having opposite issues.

There are multiple strong teams left in the Playoff picture, more than in any year since the FBS Playoffs began.  With Clemson, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and even Wake Forest, Minnesota, and Baylor still alive as Power 5 Undefeated teams, and with one-loss teams like Washington, Oregon, Utah, Texas, and Notre Dame still holding slim hopes,  the Playoff Committee will have multiple teams to choose just four.  It could be that this is the year where it becomes evident that at least six and maybe eight teams should be included in the Playoffs.

On the other end of the spectrum, many bowl committees are looking at the probability that they will need to secure an at-large team participant.  Chief among these bowl problems are the bottom group of SEC contractual games.  You will see the problem as we go conference by conference.  Some of the SEC bowls are going to have to make do with inferior substitutes.  These bowl might petition the NCAA to expand the playoffs so that they don’t have to seek out 6-6 teams from Group of 5 conferences for at-large inclusion in their games.

American Athletic

With Central Florida now on the outside looking in for the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid, Memphis and SMU are still undefeated, but neither team ranks near Boise State.  One of these three would have to finish ahead of Boise State and win the AAC Championship Game in order to sneak into the Cotton Bowl.

As of today, it looks like the AAC will have seven bowl eligible teams for seven bowls.  Two from a group that includes Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa, Navy, or Houston should sneak in at 6-6.

Atlantic Coast 

Even with the close scare, Clemson stays in strong contention for the Playoffs.  Their schedule is the easiest of all the contenders, and this should give the Tigers a better than 50-50 chance of running the table to 13-0.  The problem is their strength of schedule might knock them down all the way to fourth place in the seedings.  If CU loses a game, they might be headed to the Orange Bowl instead of the Playoffs.

Including Notre Dame with the ACC bowl contracts, this looks like a league that will have 12 bowl eligible teams.  If Clemson makes the Playoffs, Notre Dame could easily take the Orange Bowl bid, moving the Coastal Division Champion to the Camping World Bowl.

The ACC will almost assuredly send one extra team to fill a vacant bowl slot, and as of today, we believe two extra bowl eligible teams will become at-large participants.  Since the Birmingham Bowl has a secondary agreement with this league, the number 11 bowl team will go here.  The number 12 bowl team should fill another vacant SEC slot.

Big 12

At this point of the season, we cannot find a probable loss for Oklahoma, so we are including them in the Playoffs as a 13-0 team.  There could be a major logjam for the number two spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.  The rest of the league is rather close in talent, and it would not surprise us to see as many as four teams finishing with 6-3 conference records.  In our scenario today, we show Iowa State winning the tiebreaker between four 6-3 teams.

With Oklahoma picked to make the playoffs, there will not be enough bowl eligible teams to satisfy this league’s allotments.  The First Responders Bowl has gotten used to having to look for an at-large participant, and they will more than likely look to the Mountain West for the second season in a row.

Big Ten

This conference always provides headaches at PiRate Bowl Selection Central.  There are more rules involving this conference than any other.  First, there is a  possibility that the Big Ten can have a team in the Orange Bowl, but if not, then they are guaranteed a spot in the Citrus Bowl.  Then, there is a choice between the Gator and Music City Bowls; this year, it is almost a metaphysical certitude that a Big Ten team will go to the Gator Bowl rather than the Music City Bowl.  

Then, the rest of the bowls in the Big Ten contractual lineup have rules where teams that have played in their game in the last five years will not be invited.  The higher up on the pecking order, the more strict this rule is.  The lower bowls still require five different teams in a six-year period.

This is where we had to move around some teams to guarantee the rules were followed.  First, Ohio State looks like the number one team in the nation so far.  We have the Buckeyes winning out, which includes topping Wisconsin twice, as well as Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State.

The best from Wisconsin, Penn State, and Iowa will then slide into the Rose Bowl, while the second best will be up for consideration in the Orange Bowl.  If Notre Dame takes that Orange Bowl spot, then that third best team slips to the Citrus Bowl.

Placing Wisconsin in the Rose, it works to have Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, because the Citrus Bowl does not want to see Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State this year.

The Outback is next in the pecking order, and they get to veto Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.  We placed Penn State there.

Next up is the Holiday Bowl.  They just say no to Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Northwestern.  That’s just fine for the boys from A2–place Michigan in this one.

The Gator gets the next bowl team, and since the Music City Bowl has been taking Big Ten teams in recent years, this is good for the Taxslayer people that will choose their representative.  Only Penn State and Iowa are off the board here, and they will be taken by this time.  The Gator can then choose Minnesota.

Next up is the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx, and they have an embargo on Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Michigan State should be available for this pick, and Sparty will be a good fit with their grind it out style outdoors at Yankee Stadium in late December.

The Redbox Bowl is going to be in a little predicament at this point.  We figure that all that will be left for this bowl are 6-6 Nebraska and 6-6 Indiana.  Both teams have played in this bowl, as the Redbox people would prefer not to see Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, and Michigan State.  This is where the five teams in six years rule will have to be exercised, because we expect only the Cornhuskers and Hoosiers to be left.  We’re giving the call to Nebraska.

That will leave Indiana for the Quick Lane Bowl.  The Armed Forces Bowl is just like the First Responders Bowl; rarely does this bowl get its Big Ten/Big 12 representative.

Conference USA 

UAB’s loss Saturday to Western Kentucky basically eliminated this league from NY6 Bowl contention.  CUSA has five bowl contracts, but seven teams should be bowl eligible at the end of the year.  This league has a secondary agreement with the Frisco Bowl, and we expect the Frisco Bowl to invite a CUSA team.

CUSA also has a secondary agreement with the Independence Bowl, and there should be a final bowl eligible team to satisfy this agreement.  CUSA may actually decide to send a stronger team to Shreveport to play an ACC opponent and slide a 6-6 team into a regularly contracted bowl.

Independents

We are not including Notre Dame here, as they are able to secure an ACC bowl bid.  There should be three additional bowl eligible teams among the Independents.  First, if BYU is bowl eligible, the Cougars are guaranteed a spot in the Hawaii Bowl.  It looks like BYU could finish 6-6, so their reward for Christmas will be an escape from the snowy Utah mountains to beautiful sunny weather on the beach.

Army most definitely will be bowl eligible.  They automatically bring their corps of cadets with them, so Uncle Sam will financially secure the bowl game that invites our heroes from West Point.

Liberty could finish as strong as 8-4, but the Flames will have two FCS wins to get there.  Because they only have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl, and because the Cure Bowl should be able to place its regular contracted teams in their game, Liberty is likely to be left out this year.

Mid-American

This is another league where there are always more bowl eligible teams than there are bowls.  Usually, multiple 6-6 teams stay home for the holidays, and this year, there could be a trio of them.

The MAC has five main bowl agreements, and the Frisco Bowl can choose a sixth team.  With CUSA having extra teams this year, it is our belief that the Frisco Bowl will choose a team closer to the Metroplex in Texas.

What that means is that eight teams will be competing for five bowl spots.  We believe that Miami of Ohio, Kent State, and Buffalo could all finish 6-6, and there might be room for just one of these teams to sneak in as an at-large team somewhere in the South.  Miami of Ohio and Buffalo sell about the same number of tickets to home games, but Miami is a bigger name in football history.  We believe the Red Hawks would be the top choice in this 6-6 triad.

Mountain West

Could this be the year Boise State runs the table for the first time since 2009?  The Broncos look to be stronger than they have been in the last four years.  Their schedule still has some trap games, but for now, we will move Boise to the NY6 Bowl, which should be the Cotton Bowl.

All told, it looks like there could be eight bowl eligible teams this year, and with Boise taking the extra bid, there should be room for seven conference bowl teams.  It is likely that one 6-6 team will be left out, because one of the at-large bowl games will already have a MWC team in it.  If BYU were to go 5-7 and not earn the Hawaii Bowl trip, then that final bowl eligible team will have a slot.

Pac-12

For all practical purposes, the Conference of Champions will not produce a national champion again this year, and it is most unlikely that the league champ will make it to the Playoffs.  So, this conference is playing for the Rose Bowl.

When California quarterback Chase Garbers went down with an injury Friday night, and Arizona State rallied to knock off the Bears in Berkeley, it left no undefeated teams in this league.  The winner of the Washington-Oregon game is now a strong bet to win the North Division title. 

As for the South, it is as scrambled as ever.  Utah still looks like the best of the bunch, but the Utes’ offense is not the type to put teams away.  USC exposed their defense with crisp passing and some fortunate underthrows.  Utah may have the best chance to go 7-2, but the South could easily finish in a tie for first with teams that go 6-3 in league play.

The Pac-12 has seven bowl contracts, and it looks like this year there will be eight bowl eligible teams.  The team that does not make the regular group will become the number one choice for a bowl in the Lone Star State.

Southeastern

And now, we come to the major issues.  This league’s lesser bowls are sweating it out today.  There are five incredibly strong teams, and five incredibly weak teams.  Of the remaining four, one is not bowl eligible, and one is going to struggle to get to 6-6, 7-5 at best.

Let’s start with the good news.  Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, and Florida are all top ten teams.  If the season ended today, Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn would have to be considered top four teams and placed in the Playoffs.  

Eventually, these teams will beat up on each other.  It is possible that all five will suffer a loss before the end of November.  Do you punish this league for having five of the best eight teams in the nation?  Of course not!  The winner of the SEC Championship Game will make the playoffs.  The problem is that it will be really shoddy politics if the Selection Committee takes a second one-loss team for the Playoffs if there are three other undefeated teams like defending national champion Clemson, potentially number one Ohio State, and potentially number two Oklahoma.

So, let’s just say that Auburn goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to LSU.  Alabama goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Auburn.  LSU goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Alabama.  Meanwhile Florida falls to Auburn, LSU, and Georgia to be the best three-loss team in a generation.  Georgia also goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Auburn.

In the SEC Championship Game, Georgia gets revenge and beats Auburn to claim the number four seed in the Playoffs.  Meanwhile Auburn gets the Sugar Bowl bid, while Alabama gets the Orange Bowl bid.  The Cotton Bowl takes LSU.

Now, there are at most four additional bowl eligible teams from the SEC.  First up the Citrus Bowl gets their choice from among Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Kentucky.  We all know who they would take in this scenrio, and the 9-3 Gators are now off the board.

The Outback , Texas, and Gator bowls would then combine to take Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Kentucky in that order.  Since Missouri is on probation, there are no other bowl eligible teams, as Arkansas, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt will fall short.

Guess who else falls short?  There are no remaining teams for the Belk, Liberty, Music City, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls.  Yes!  Five bowls will have to find alternate participants. 

The Birmingham Bowl has a secondary agreement with the ACC, and they will get the #11 team, most likely a 6-6 squad.  The Independence Bowl has a secondary agreement with CUSA, and there should be an extra bowl eligible team for that one.

The best bet for an empty slot in the Belk Bowl might be Army.  The Cadets will invade Charlotte, and that bowl will have a lot of filled seats, especially if the opponent is a team from North Carolina like the Tar Heels, Blue Devils, Demon Deacons, or Wolfpack.

Alas, the two Volunteer State bowls will be hurting.  The Liberty and Music City Bowls will have to find somebody from among the sea of lesser 6-6 teams.  Because the Music City Bowl will have an ACC team, the #12 ACC bowl eligible team will go to Memphis and play in the Liberty Bowl.  That leaves the Music City Bowl looking at one of those three 6-6 MAC teams.  Our guess is that Miami of Ohio would be their choice in this situation, unless the folks at Franklin American Mortgage can do a backroom deal to get a better MAC team and send that 6-6 MAC team to the Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise.

Sun Belt

It looks like the Sun Belt will have five bowl eligible teams, and there will be room for all five, since this league has five for sure contracts plus an additional supplemental one.  Louisiana and Appalachian State look like the two top powers, but Arkansas State is still a potential division winner in the West.  Troy should be the number four team, while the fifth one should be either Georgia Southern or Louisiana-Monroe.

 

 

 

September 22, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Memphis

Navy

18.1

15.0

19.5

 

 

Friday

September 27

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Virginia Tech

Duke

1.3

1.8

1.6

Maryland

Penn St.

-4.3

-3.8

-4.7

Air Force

San Jose St.

15.5

14.7

17.1

 

 

Saturday

September 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

California

Arizona St.

3.6

4.3

4.2

Wisconsin

Northwestern

15.0

15.7

16.3

Boston College

Wake Forest

-0.5

-0.1

-0.5

Central Florda

Connecticut

40.6

35.9

43.0

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

21.3

19.4

21.0

South Florida

SMU

-8.6

-7.4

-9.3

Miami (O)

Buffalo

1.9

-0.6

1.1

Temple

Georgia Tech

6.9

7.7

7.4

Florida St.

North Carolina St.

3.6

4.0

3.2

Baylor

Iowa St.

0.7

0.6

0.3

Toledo

BYU

-6.0

-5.6

-5.3

Massachusetts

Akron

-8.8

-6.7

-9.2

Michigan

Rutgers

28.4

26.4

29.1

Purdue

Minnesota

-0.9

-0.2

0.1

Georgia Southern

Louisiana

0.9

0.0

0.5

Iowa

Middle Tennessee

28.3

27.3

28.4

Wyoming

UNLV

13.1

13.0

13.5

Utah

Washington St.

6.7

5.9

6.6

New Mexico St.

Fresno St.

-20.3

-18.4

-21.1

Nevada

Hawaii

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

Oregon St.

Stanford

-6.5

-4.2

-7.5

Michigan St.

Indiana

13.4

14.6

14.9

North Carolina

Clemson

-29.2

-25.6

-29.3

South Carolina

Kentucky

6.3

6.0

7.4

Alabama

Ole Miss

37.1

34.3

39.1

Vanderbilt

Northern Illinois

10.6

10.5

9.3

TCU

Kansas

12.0

14.2

12.4

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

1.1

1.9

0.6

Auburn

Mississippi St.

7.0

9.2

7.0

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

19.7

18.6

20.6

Charlotte

Florida Atlantic

-0.3

1.1

-0.5

Notre Dame

Virginia

16.6

14.2

16.8

Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina

21.0

17.9

21.1

Marshall

Cincinnati

-9.3

-8.2

-8.2

Old Dominion

East Carolina

0.3

-1.3

1.3

Liberty

New Mexico

9.2

7.3

10.5

Troy

Arkansas St.

7.7

8.1

7.2

Louisiana-Monroe

South Alabama

17.0

14.5

18.1

Southern Miss.

UTEP

31.1

23.6

30.8

Rice

Louisiana Tech

-8.9

-7.3

-9.8

Western Kentucky

UAB

1.7

0.4

2.2

Utah St.

Colorado St.

29.1

24.3

30.4

Nebraska

Ohio St.

-22.5

-19.6

-23.7

North Texas

Houston

0.8

-0.6

-0.8

Texas A&M (n)

Arkansas

23.8

21.2

23.3

Washington

USC

9.5

8.0

10.1

Arizona

UCLA

6.6

7.1

8.0

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Syracuse

Holy Cross

35

Pittsburgh

Delaware

29

Florida

Towson St.

36

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

136.1

132.5

137.2

135.2

2

Clemson

134.9

131.6

135.8

134.1

3

Ohio St.

132.2

130.7

132.9

131.9

4

Georgia

127.7

126.0

128.3

127.3

5

L S U

126.5

123.9

125.5

125.3

6

Oklahoma

122.6

121.7

122.5

122.3

7

Notre Dame

121.0

119.0

121.2

120.4

8

Florida

121.4

118.5

120.8

120.2

9

Wisconsin

119.6

119.3

119.7

119.5

10

Auburn

119.2

117.4

118.8

118.5

11

Michigan St.

117.7

117.3

118.0

117.7

12

Texas A&M

118.3

116.6

117.0

117.3

13

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

14

Michigan

117.1

115.0

117.2

116.4

15

Penn St.

116.7

115.6

116.3

116.2

16

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

17

Missouri

116.3

113.9

116.6

115.6

18

Iowa

116.0

114.0

116.1

115.3

19

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

20

Mississippi St.

115.2

111.2

114.8

113.7

21

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

22

Iowa St.

112.4

112.7

112.3

112.5

23

Texas

112.4

112.5

112.4

112.4

24

Kansas St.

112.1

111.8

112.1

112.0

25

Central Florida

111.5

110.7

112.6

111.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.7

110.2

27

South Carolina

110.8

109.0

110.4

110.1

28

Baylor

110.1

110.2

109.6

110.0

29

Minnesota

109.7

109.0

108.3

109.0

30

Maryland

109.4

108.8

108.6

108.9

31

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

107.6

106.8

108.5

107.6

33

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

34

Virginia

107.4

107.8

107.4

107.5

35

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

36

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

37

Northwestern

107.6

106.6

106.4

106.9

38

Kentucky

107.5

106.0

106.0

106.5

39

Utah St.

106.3

105.3

107.7

106.4

40

Indiana

107.3

105.6

106.1

106.3

41

Pittsburgh

106.3

105.9

106.2

106.1

42

Syracuse

106.3

105.8

106.3

106.1

43

Boise St.

106.2

105.5

106.5

106.1

44

T C U

104.8

108.1

105.1

106.0

45

Purdue

105.8

105.8

105.3

105.6

46

Texas Tech

105.9

106.1

104.9

105.6

47

Memphis

105.3

105.1

106.4

105.6

48

Duke

105.5

105.0

105.4

105.3

49

Cincinnati

105.4

103.8

105.5

104.9

50

Appalachian St.

105.3

103.7

104.8

104.6

51

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

52

Tennessee

105.0

104.8

103.2

104.3

53

Wake Forest

104.3

103.8

104.9

104.3

54

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

55

Virginia Tech

103.7

103.9

104.0

103.9

56

SMU

102.9

102.7

103.9

103.2

57

North Carolina

102.7

103.0

103.6

103.1

58

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

59

Florida St.

102.6

102.8

102.4

102.6

60

North Carolina St.

102.0

101.8

102.3

102.0

61

Vanderbilt

102.6

101.3

101.3

101.7

62

Ole Miss

102.0

101.1

101.1

101.4

63

Army

101.2

101.3

100.8

101.1

64

Boston College

100.8

100.7

101.4

101.0

65

BYU

100.9

100.9

101.0

100.9

66

Tulane

100.2

100.7

100.8

100.6

67

Temple

100.4

99.4

101.4

100.4

68

Fresno St.

99.7

100.3

100.4

100.1

69

Western Michigan

100.4

99.2

100.4

100.0

70

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

71

Louisiana

98.7

98.9

98.5

98.7

72

Air Force

97.8

99.0

98.7

98.5

73

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.8

98.4

74

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

75

Houston

96.1

97.2

98.7

97.3

76

Illinois

96.7

97.6

95.7

96.7

77

Georgia Southern

96.6

95.9

96.0

96.2

78

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

79

Wyoming

95.2

97.2

95.6

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

81

Troy

95.8

96.1

94.9

95.6

82

Arkansas

95.5

96.4

94.7

95.6

83

Georgia Tech

96.0

94.1

96.5

95.5

84

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

85

Louisville

95.9

95.6

95.1

95.5

86

North Texas

94.9

94.5

95.9

95.1

87

Southern Miss.

95.2

93.0

95.5

94.6

88

Marshall

93.6

93.1

94.8

93.8

89

Northern Illinois

93.9

92.8

94.0

93.6

90

Ohio

93.5

92.6

94.4

93.5

91

Tulsa

92.6

93.3

93.5

93.1

92

Toledo

91.9

92.3

92.7

92.3

93

South Florida

91.3

92.3

91.6

91.7

94

Louisiana Tech

91.5

91.3

91.7

91.5

95

Rutgers

91.7

91.6

91.1

91.5

96

Nevada

90.8

92.6

90.4

91.3

97

Navy

90.1

93.1

89.9

91.1

98

Arkansas St.

91.0

91.1

90.7

90.9

99

Florida Atlantic

90.5

89.8

91.2

90.5

100

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89.7

90.7

90.3

101

Eastern Michigan

89.5

89.9

90.2

89.9

102

Buffalo

89.0

89.6

89.9

89.5

103

Liberty

88.7

89.9

89.1

89.2

104

Florida Int’l.

89.1

88.7

89.2

89.0

105

U A B

87.8

89.7

88.5

88.7

106

Kent St.

88.1

88.1

88.6

88.3

107

Charlotte

87.7

88.4

88.2

88.1

108

Louisiana-Monroe

87.6

88.3

87.6

87.8

109

Miami (Ohio)

87.9

86.0

88.0

87.3

110

Western Kentucky

86.5

87.2

87.8

87.1

111

Ball St.

87.0

86.5

86.7

86.7

112

Coastal Carolina

86.4

87.8

85.7

86.6

113

Georgia St.

85.8

87.1

84.9

85.9

114

U N L V

85.1

87.2

85.1

85.8

115

San Jose St.

85.3

87.3

84.6

85.7

116

Texas St.

83.0

83.9

82.8

83.2

117

New Mexico

82.0

85.1

81.0

82.7

118

East Carolina

82.0

84.1

81.5

82.5

119

Colorado St.

80.1

84.0

80.3

81.5

120

Central Michigan

81.1

81.9

81.4

81.4

121

Rice

80.0

81.5

79.3

80.3

122

Old Dominion

79.8

80.3

80.2

80.1

123

New Mexico St.

77.0

79.4

76.8

77.7

124

Akron

76.1

76.3

75.5

75.9

125

Texas-San Antonio

74.3

76.5

73.9

74.9

126

Connecticut

73.9

77.8

72.6

74.8

127

South Alabama

73.1

76.2

72.0

73.8

128

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

129

U T E P

67.1

72.5

67.7

69.1

130

Massachusetts

65.3

67.6

64.3

65.7

 

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.7

112.6

111.6

0-0

3-1

Cincinnati

105.4

103.8

105.5

104.9

0-0

2-1

Temple

100.4

99.4

101.4

100.4

0-0

2-1

South Florida

91.3

92.3

91.6

91.7

0-0

1-2

East Carolina

82.0

84.1

81.5

82.5

0-1

2-2

Connecticut

73.9

77.8

72.6

74.8

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.3

105.1

106.4

105.6

0-0

3-0

SMU

102.9

102.7

103.9

103.2

0-0

4-0

Tulane

100.2

100.7

100.8

100.6

1-0

3-1

Houston

96.1

97.2

98.7

97.3

0-1

1-3

Tulsa

92.6

93.3

93.5

93.1

0-0

2-2

Navy

90.1

93.1

89.9

91.1

1-0

2-0

AAC Averages

96.0

96.7

96.5

96.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.9

131.6

135.8

134.1

2-0

4-0

Syracuse

106.3

105.8

106.3

106.1

0-1

2-2

Wake Forest

104.3

103.8

104.9

104.3

0-0

4-0

Florida St.

102.6

102.8

102.4

102.6

1-1

2-2

North Carolina St.

102.0

101.8

102.3

102.0

0-0

3-1

Boston College

100.8

100.7

101.4

101.0

1-0

3-1

Louisville

95.9

95.6

95.1

95.5

0-1

2-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

107.6

106.8

108.5

107.6

0-1

2-2

Virginia

107.4

107.8

107.4

107.5

2-0

4-0

Pittsburgh

106.3

105.9

106.2

106.1

0-1

2-2

Duke

105.5

105.0

105.4

105.3

0-0

2-1

Virginia Tech

103.7

103.9

104.0

103.9

0-1

2-1

North Carolina

102.7

103.0

103.6

103.1

1-0

2-2

Georgia Tech

96.0

94.1

96.5

95.5

0-1

1-2

ACC Averages

105.4

104.9

105.7

105.3

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.6

121.7

122.5

122.3

0-0

3-0

Iowa St.

112.4

112.7

112.3

112.5

0-0

2-1

Texas

112.4

112.5

112.4

112.4

1-0

3-1

Kansas St.

112.1

111.8

112.1

112.0

0-0

3-0

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.7

110.2

0-1

3-1

Baylor

110.1

110.2

109.6

110.0

0-0

3-0

T C U

104.8

108.1

105.1

106.0

0-0

2-1

Texas Tech

105.9

106.1

104.9

105.6

0-0

2-1

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

1-0

3-1

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

0-1

2-2

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.8

109.1

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

132.2

130.7

132.9

131.9

1-0

4-0

Michigan St.

117.7

117.3

118.0

117.7

1-0

3-1

Michigan

117.1

115.0

117.2

116.4

0-1

2-1

Penn St.

116.7

115.6

116.3

116.2

0-0

3-0

Maryland

109.4

108.8

108.6

108.9

0-0

2-1

Indiana

107.3

105.6

106.1

106.3

0-1

3-1

Rutgers

91.7

91.6

91.1

91.5

0-1

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

119.6

119.3

119.7

119.5

1-0

3-0

Iowa

116.0

114.0

116.1

115.3

1-0

3-0

Minnesota

109.7

109.0

108.3

109.0

0-0

3-0

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

1-0

3-1

Northwestern

107.6

106.6

106.4

106.9

0-1

1-2

Purdue

105.8

105.8

105.3

105.6

0-0

1-2

Illinois

96.7

97.6

95.7

96.7

0-1

2-2

Big Ten Averages

111.0

110.4

110.6

110.6

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.6

93.1

94.8

93.8

0-0

2-1

Florida Atlantic

90.5

89.8

91.2

90.5

0-0

2-2

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89.7

90.7

90.3

0-0

1-2

Florida Int’l.

89.1

88.7

89.2

89.0

0-2

1-3

Charlotte

87.7

88.4

88.2

88.1

0-0

2-2

Western Kentucky

86.5

87.2

87.8

87.1

1-0

1-2

Old Dominion

79.8

80.3

80.2

80.1

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

North Texas

94.9

94.5

95.9

95.1

1-0

2-2

Southern Miss.

95.2

93.0

95.5

94.6

0-0

2-2

Louisiana Tech

91.5

91.3

91.7

91.5

1-0

3-1

U A B

87.8

89.7

88.5

88.7

0-0

3-0

Rice

80.0

81.5

79.3

80.3

0-0

0-4

Texas-San Antonio

74.3

76.5

73.9

74.9

0-1

1-3

U T E P

67.1

72.5

67.7

69.1

0-0

1-2

CUSA Averages

86.3

86.9

86.8

86.7

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.0

119.0

121.2

120.4

x

2-1

Army

101.2

101.3

100.8

101.1

x

3-1

BYU

100.9

100.9

101.0

100.9

x

2-2

Liberty

88.7

89.9

89.1

89.2

x

2-2

New Mexico St.

77.0

79.4

76.8

77.7

x

0-4

Massachusetts

65.3

67.6

64.3

65.7

x

0-4

Indep. Averages

92.3

93.0

92.2

92.5

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.5

92.6

94.4

93.5

0-0

1-3

Buffalo

89.0

89.6

89.9

89.5

0-0

2-2

Kent St.

88.1

88.1

88.6

88.3

1-0

2-2

Miami (Ohio)

87.9

86.0

88.0

87.3

0-0

1-3

Akron

76.1

76.3

75.5

75.9

0-1

0-4

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

0-1

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

100.4

99.2

100.4

100.0

0-0

2-2

Northern Illinois

93.9

92.8

94.0

93.6

0-0

1-2

Toledo

91.9

92.3

92.7

92.3

0-0

2-1

Eastern Michigan

89.5

89.9

90.2

89.9

0-0

3-1

Ball St.

87.0

86.5

86.7

86.7

0-0

1-3

Central Michigan

81.1

81.9

81.4

81.4

1-0

2-2

MAC Averages

87.5

87.3

87.8

87.5

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.3

105.3

107.7

106.4

1-0

2-1

Boise St.

106.2

105.5

106.5

106.1

1-0

4-0

Air Force

97.8

99.0

98.7

98.5

0-1

2-1

Wyoming

95.2

97.2

95.6

96.0

0-0

3-1

New Mexico

82.0

85.1

81.0

82.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado St.

80.1

84.0

80.3

81.5

0-0

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.7

100.3

100.4

100.1

0-0

1-2

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.8

98.4

0-1

3-1

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

0-0

3-1

Nevada

90.8

92.6

90.4

91.3

0-0

3-1

U N L V

85.1

87.2

85.1

85.8

0-0

1-2

San Jose St.

85.3

87.3

84.6

85.7

0-0

2-1

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.6

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

1-0

3-1

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

0-1

3-1

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

0-1

3-1

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

1-0

4-0

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

0-2

1-3

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

0-0

1-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-1

3-1

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

2-0

3-1

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

0-1

3-1

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

1-0

3-1

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

1-0

1-3

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.7

126.0

128.3

127.3

1-0

4-0

Florida

121.4

118.5

120.8

120.2

2-0

4-0

Missouri

116.3

113.9

116.6

115.6

1-0

3-1

South Carolina

110.8

109.0

110.4

110.1

0-2

1-3

Kentucky

107.5

106.0

106.0

106.5

0-2

2-2

Tennessee

105.0

104.8

103.2

104.3

0-1

1-3

Vanderbilt

102.6

101.3

101.3

101.7

0-2

0-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

136.1

132.5

137.2

135.2

1-0

4-0

L S U

126.5

123.9

125.5

125.3

1-0

4-0

Auburn

119.2

117.4

118.8

118.5

1-0

4-0

Texas A&M

118.3

116.6

117.0

117.3

0-1

2-2

Mississippi St.

115.2

111.2

114.8

113.7

1-0

3-1

Ole Miss

102.0

101.1

101.1

101.4

1-0

2-2

Arkansas

95.5

96.4

94.7

95.6

0-1

2-2

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.0

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.3

103.7

104.8

104.6

0-0

3-0

Georgia Southern

96.6

95.9

96.0

96.2

0-0

1-2

Troy

95.8

96.1

94.9

95.6

0-0

2-1

Coastal Carolina

86.4

87.8

85.7

86.6

0-0

3-1

Georgia St.

85.8

87.1

84.9

85.9

0-1

2-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

98.7

98.9

98.5

98.7

0-0

3-1

Arkansas St.

91.0

91.1

90.7

90.9

0-0

2-2

Louisiana-Monroe

87.6

88.3

87.6

87.8

0-0

1-2

Texas St.

83.0

83.9

82.8

83.2

1-0

1-3

South Alabama

73.1

76.2

72.0

73.8

0-0

1-3

SBC Averages

90.3

90.9

89.8

90.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.8

2

BTen

110.6

3

B12

109.1

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.3

6

AAC

96.4

7

MWC

94.0

8

Ind

92.5

9

SUN

90.3

10

MAC

87.5

11

CUSA

86.7

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

UAB

5

Navy

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Eastern Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Utah St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Troy

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Nevada

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Buffalo

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

USC

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Houston

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Michigan]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Syracuse

Nebraska

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Kentucky

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

California

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

Auburn

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Colorado]

North Carolina St.

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Army]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

[Boston College]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Iowa

Florida

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Washington

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Mississippi St.

Michigan St.

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Miami (O)

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Purdue

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games This Week

 

 

Memphis vs. Navy: The winner of this game will have a leg up in the AAC West, and with Central Florida losing at Pitt, there is a possibility that the Western Division champion could win the Conference Championship Game and have a shot at the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.  Memphis has never been in a major bowl, although they had a team that should have gotten one in 1963, when the Tigers finished 9-0-1 and tied undefeated Ole Miss.  Navy has been in five major bowls, winning the Sugar Bowl in 1955 and the Orange Bowl in 1958, while losing the Cotton Bowl in 1963, when it was for a shot at the National Championship.

California vs. Arizona St.: Had Arizona State beaten Colorado Saturday, this would have been the top game of the day.  Cal is the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, and even if the Bears were to somehow run the table, they have little chance of making the Playoffs.  Still, this is a key game for the West Coast, as the more Cal continues to win, the better off for the Conference of Champions.

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan: The winner of this game definitely has a path to bowl eligibility.  If CMU wins this game, Jim McElwain will start getting some notice as a potential Power 5 School head coach, because the Chippewas were picked to finish in last place in the MAC West.

Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo: The Bulls didn’t just upset Temple Saturday; they pummeled the Owls into submission.  Miami should have done what Indiana did under Lee Corso many years ago–The Wacky Hoosiers’ coach called time out in 1976 just to take a team picture under the scoreboard when his team led the Buckeyes 7-6.  Miami led Ohio State 5-0 in the first quarter.  Corso’s Hoosiers lost their game 47-7.  Miami lost 76-5.  Still, the Redhawks have a shot at bowl eligibility, but they may have to uspet Buffalo to get there.  This is a perfect sandwich game for Buffalo, as they have Ohio U next week.

Florida St. vs. North Carolina St: Two weeks ago, Willie Taggart was sledding on thin ice at Florida State.  After a win over Louisville, the Seminoles are 2-2, and a win over NC State just might lead the Seminoles on a path to bowl eligibility.  Taggart has always had slow turnarounds.  He did so at Western Kentucky and at South Florida.  He was only at Oregon for a season, and this is just year two in Tallahassee.  If the fans and boosters give him a little more time, he will turn the FSU program back into a top tier program.  Dave Doeren has done a credible job in Raleigh with the Wolfpack, but this is looking like a slight down year for NC St.  The winner of this game will get to bowl eligibility.

Baylor vs. Iowa St.: The winner of this game remains a contender for one of the two Big 12 Championship Game spots.  Baylor has yet to play up to its potential to this point of the season.  They have the talent to win double-digit games this year, but they could lose the next two if they don’t bring their “A-game” to this week’s and next week’s games.  Iowa St. took their frustrations out on a Louisiana-Monroe team that isn’t as bad as the 72-20 loss indicates.  This game should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.  

Purdue vs. Minnesota: The winner of this game stays in contention for a bowl game.  If Minnesota wins on the road, then the Gophers will have a chance to start the season 8-0 before Penn State comes to Minneapolis.  Purdue must win this game, or the Boilermakers will not have a path to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana: Why do we call this a key game?  These two teams are stronger than you realize.  The Ragin’ Cajuns just trounced Ohio in Athens, while Georgia Southern is hiding in ambush at 1-2 with losses to undefeated Minnesota and unbelievable LSU.  The Eagles had an extra week to prepare for this game, while UL may be looking forward to their game with Appy State the following week.  The winner of this game will most definitely play a 13th game and maybe even a 14th game.

Utah vs. Washington St.: The loser of this game will have a two-game losing streak, after the two teams lost to the Los Angeles teams.  Utah’s loss at USC was surprising but not shocking.  If you didn’t stay up and watch the Washington State-UCLA game, you might not believe that Washington State scored 63 points.  Quarterback Anthony Gordon threw for 570 yards and nine touchdowns. However, it wasn’t good enough.  UCLA scored 67 points and came from 25 points down to pull off one of the most incredible upsets of the season.  The Bruins had scored 14 points in each of their first three games.  The winner of this game stays in contention for their division title, while the loser is looking at a December bowl.

Nevada vs. Hawaii: This game is for first place in the MAC West.  Hawaii usually plays much better at home than on the road, and playing in Reno gives Nevada a larger than normal home field advantage.  Nevada still has road games with Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, and Fresno State.  This is a must win game for the Wolf Pack if they are to make it to the MAC Championship Game.  A Rainbow Warrior win in this game, and it could be lights out for the rest of the division.

Oklahoma St. vs. Kansas St.: Chris Klieman came to the Little Apple having won back to back FCS National Championships at North Dakota State.  He has a personal winning streak of 24 games.  Kansas State had the week off after winning at Mississippi State, and now they entertain the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough loss at Texas.  If KSU wins this game in Stillwater, they then play three consecutive home games against three top contenders.  If Okie St. wins, then they stay in contention for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Auburn vs. Mississippi St.: It’s hard to think about a division game with a potential New Years’s Day Bowl participant as a potential sandwich game, but Auburn faces the Bulldogs between road games against Texas A&M and Florida.  This is the perfect chance for Mississippi State to pull off a big upset.  Auburn may not have enough offensive firepower to exploit State’s vulnerabilities on defense.  Of course, the Tiger defensive line is strong enough to hold the Bullies to less than 17 points, and Auburn will score 20 or more in this game.

Nebraska vs. Ohio St.: The last time the Buckeyes came to Lincoln, Nebraska suffered one of its most devastating home losses ever, losing 56-14.  Last year in Columbus, Nebraska came very close to pulling off the big upset.  Can the Cornhuskers have a shot in this game?  Last year’s Ohio State team was struggling a little bit when Nebraska played at the Horseshoe.  The Ohio State offense should make this game look more like the 2017 game in Lincoln.

Washington vs. USC: If the Trojans can leave Seattle with a win this weekend, Clay Helton might be able to begin to think about renewing his satellite TV subscription at his SoCal home for 2020.  A loss might put UW two games behind Cal, which would almost eliminate the Huskies from the North Division title race.  So, this is a must-win game for UW.

Note: Some of you (several somes of you) have contacted us through our other site wanting to know more information about the “Sharps” that are friends of the PiRate Ratings.  In Friday’s post here, we gave out a 5-game money line parlay with +250 odds that we inferred based on information given to us by one of our friends in Nevada.

So, the parlay won in theory.  If you did not heed our warning and actually played this one, you too won big on Saturday.

Unfortunately, this will not be a recurring thing here.  We cannot reveal the information we receive from Vegas, because the Sharps playing these parlays also have a service where they charge for their advice.  The specific Sharp that gave us this pick has asked not to be identified, and we are fine with that.  After all, we do not condone actual betting of money on sporting events.  Whether this parlay won or not, we were guaranteed not to win or lose, since we did not play it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 15, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tulane

Houston

7.1

6.3

4.7