Did you watch the Penn State-Illinois game Saturday? It was tied 10-10 after 60 minutes of excellent defensive football. The Illini shut down the Penn State passing game while controlling the clock by running and running and more running.
Both teams scored field goals in the first two overtimes to make the score 16-16. The new overtime rule states that starting with the third overtime, both teams get a two-point conversion attempt. If the score remains tied, then successive two-point conversion attempts are taken until one team scores and the other team does not.
Additionally, after the first overtime, there are no more coin flips. The teams rotate the choice. And, what happens is the home team always wants to play on the side of the field where the student body cheers in the end zone, while the opponent wants to play at the other end of the field. After each overtime, the players, officials, chain gang, and hundreds of fans must make the 100-yard walk to the other end of the field.
It’s no longer much of a secret that making two-point conversions is about as difficult as making 55-yard field goals. That became a huge problem yesterday in Happy Valley, Pennsylvania. Penn State and Illinois could not convert their two-point conversion attempts. Overtimes three, four, five, six, and seven produced 10 consecutive botched conversions. As each overtime ended, everybody had to move to the other end of the field, and the longer into this mess it continued, the big tubby linemen began to walk at a snail’s pace to get back.
Illinois finally scored in the eighth overtime, but then Penn State did the same forcing a ninth overtime. The game was finally decided when the Nittany Lions missed their ninth overtime attempt, while Illinois scored to win the game 20-18.
In the amount of time it took to play the nine overtimes, another game that kicked off at the same time as the first overtime began the second quarter of their game just before the nine-overtime game concluded. In other words, it took a little longer than one full quarter to play the nine overtimes.
Imagine a game in late November with sloppy playing conditions where regulation ends in a tie game, and nobody can score in the overtimes for 10 or more of these ridiculous two-point conversion attempts. If it took nine yesterday, there is a possibility that somebody else will need 10 or more.
The NCAA must re-evaluate this fiasco of a rule. In fact, the NCAA needs to have a constitutional convention and modify a lot of the rules to get into the 21st century. Here is our suggestion for rules changes–use the same rules the NFL uses. To wit:
1. Overtime should be one, 10-minute period with a touchdown on the first possession winning the game, but a field goal allowing the other team to have a possession. If the game is still tied after 10 minutes, it stands as a tie game.
2. Intentional pass interference is now a definite defensive option to stop a big gain. Players will even deliver cheap shots knowing that giving up 15 yards beats giving up 50 or a touchdown. Because passing the ball is tantamount to winning, the pass interference penalty needs to go back to giving the offense the ball at the spot of interference, be it 12 yards past the line or 50.
3. The clock should not stop on first downs. That rule was in effect when chain gangs were the only way to spot the ball. In today’s world, the ball can be spotted quickly via computerization and an extra referee. Let the clock move on first downs.
4. Add the two-minute warning. In lieu of the clock stopping on first downs, add a two-minute warning to both halves. That is when teams need the clock to stop, and the networks can get an extra commercial break before halftime or the end of the game.
5. Allow a player that falls to the ground with the ball but having been untouched by the defense to get up and advance. Why should poor playing conditions be responsible for making a defensive stop?
Here’s one additional rule change that should be considered. Targeting happens too much these days when the ball carrier lowers his head to invite the targeting penalty. This is almost like the flop in basketball. The rule needs to be changed so that when the ball carrier initiates the targeting by putting himself into position for any tackle to become a potential targeting penalty, the offense should be penalized 15 yards for a personal foul.
Additionally, ejection is much too harsh of a penalty. How about making targeting a 20-yard penalty and automatic first down, and also allowing it to supersede the half the distance to the goal and be allowed to go all the way to the 1-yard line if the offense is in the Red Zone? A penalty in one game shouldn’t be allowed to stay in effect for a half of another game. This may be the most ridiculous rule in college football history. Think of a basketball game where a Syracuse player commits an intentional foul on a Connecticut player late in the second half of a game, and then three days later when Syracuse plays Duke, Duke gets to start the game with 2 foul shots from the intentional foul three days back.
Last week, time constraints limited this weekly feature to the bare minimum. We have plenty of time this week, so rather than just list the games we have chosen, there’s time to go a little more in-depth with our selections.
First, we made a minimal profit of imaginary revenue last week, as we hit on the long odds 4-game parlay at +372.50 with Texas beating TCU, Wake Forest beating Louisville, South Carolina beating Troy, and Oklahoma State holding on to edge Baylor.
This week presented us with numerous opportunities where certain factors triggered plays. We ended up trimming it to eight parlays, and all but one game coming on Saturday. We had one key Sunday game but could not find an NFL partner for the game, so it attached to other college games to give us the biggest odds of the week. Without further adieu, here are our picks for this week. Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, and we highly encourage you not to wager real money on these selections, unless you have other research that the information herein merely endorses.
Odds:
+153.06
Must Win
Opponent
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Baylor
West Virginia
This first parlay is cut and dry. We believe that the public is not all that high on the two favorites. Wake Forest is supposed to be weak most years, but Dave Clawson has the Demon Deacons creeping up on Clemson for best in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. Baylor came oh so close to knocking off Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week. Had they pulled that win off, the Bears might be approaching the Top 10. West Virginia has played a tough schedule in a short time, and we feel they might show some fatigue in this game.
Odds:
+155
Must Win
Opponent
UTSA
Western Kentucky
Obviously, this is not a parlay. It is one of four games where we are picking an underdog to win straight up. Western Kentucky is due to bounce after getting up and playing a close game at Michigan State, while UTSA has quietly started 5-0 with a Power 5 win.
Odds:
+160
Must Win
Opponent
Texas
Oklahoma
It hasn’t been often in the last 15 years that we went into the second weekend in October believing that Texas would beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma has been narrowly escaping with wins over mediocre competition. After getting pasted at Arkansas, Texas has begun to look like a team ready to compete for the Big 12 Championship Game. We consider this a tossup game, so we go with the better odds and the underdog.
Odds:
+160
Must Win
Opponent
Nebraska
Michigan
This is more of a system play. Nebraska won by more than 38 points in a conference game and now plays a conference home game the next week. In a high percentage of cases like this, the home team continues to play at the same top level it played the previous week. Additionally, Michigan is on the road for the second consecutive week in a key conference game. This has the look of a traditional upset.
Odds:
+161.90
Must Win
Opponent
San Jose St.
Colorado St.
Bowling Green
Akron
The key game here is the San Jose State-Colorado State game. We feel like the wrong team is favored. However, playing SJSU in a single game does not supply us with the odds we look for when playing Money Lines. So, we added the Bowling Green game to it to make a parlay that has fat payout odds. The betting public may not see how much the Falcons have improved this year, while Akron remains one of the five worst teams in the FBS.
Odds:
+188.93
Must Win
Opponent
Iowa
Penn St.
Tennessee
South Carolina
Arizona St.
Stanford
This is the first of three big-odds payouts we are playing this week. In the first game in this parlay, our ratings show Iowa at the present time to be good enough to run the table and make the Playoffs. Penn State looks like a 10-2 team destined to play on New Year’s Day in Florida. Kirk Ferentz may have his best team in Iowa City.
In the second leg of this parlay, Tennessee fits the same criteria that Nebraska faces. They won by 38 points against a conference opponent and play at home this week against another conference opponent. While South Carolina’s defense is considerably better than Missouri’s, their offense is not as sharp, and we believe Josh Heupel’s Vols are sitting on another great performance.
The third part of this parlay is simply a case where we believe Arizona State is clearly superior to Stanford on both sides of the ball and should win by double digits.
Odds:
+195.50
Must Win
Opponent
South Alabama
Texas St.
Kent St.
Buffalo
Wisconsin
Illinois
South Alabama looks to be 10-14 points better than Texas State, and when we saw the Money Line odds on this game, it was the first one that went into our play pool. Kent State has a score to settle with Buffalo. In the weird Covid year of 2020, The Golden Flashes only managed to get four games in the books. Buffalo was the last, and Kent State went into this game 3-0 and averaging 53 points per game. Buffalo was also 3-0. The Bulls hung 70 points on the Flashes. Kent State gets their revenge this week.
Wisconsin is the best 1-3 team in America. It is odd how many times unforced errors have hurt the Badgers in their three losses. The Badgers don’t particularly like their rival to the south, and we expect UW to win this game by a large margin.
Odds:
+241.12
Must Win
Opponent
Central Michigan
Ohio U
BYU
Boise St.
Carolina
Philadelphia
Finally, we come to our biggest odds play of the week. We only found one NFL game we wanted to play based on the Money Line odds, so we had to parlay the Carolina Panthers with a couple of college games.
While 2021 looks like a so-so year for Central Michigan, Ohio is in a state of flux after former coach Frank Solich retired during the Summer. The Bobcats are almost sleep-walking through games this year, which can be attributed to growing pains.
Boise State is a mere shell of its former self under Bryan Harsin. New coach Andy Avalos inherited 16 returning starters, but the Broncos never played up to their potential last year and appear to be repeating it this year. Maybe, they were just a bit overrated?
BYU has shown the world that they were more than just Zach Wilson last year. The Cougars’ defense is top notch, while the offense is a bit more deliberate this year, but it helps the defense perform even better. Other than the fact that the Cougars may be looking ahead a tad to next week’s game at Baylor, everything here looks like a BYU win.
Carolina should be a heavier favorite over Philadelphia. The loss to Dallas has been factored a bit too heavily. We like the Panthers solely because their Money Line odds are so favorable this week.
With one month of play in the books, it is time to begin issuing our Bowl Projections. This is starting to look like a fractured college football season. The Atlantic Coast Conference and Pac-12 Conference have basically been eliminated from Playoff contention. In the Big 12, Oklahoma looks anything like a Playoff team, and Ohio State’s loss at home to Oregon now looks much worse with Oregon losing to Stanford.
Meanwhile, the SEC has two super teams that should be co-number ones. Alabama and Georgia might finish the regular season as the top two seeds even though one team must lose a game in the SEC Championship Game.
Cincinnati’s road win over Notre Dame is enough for now to put them in the Field of Four, but only if either the Big 12 or Big Ten champions have a loss. The Bearcats still have some tough conference opposition to conquer in SMU and Houston.
The Redbox Bowl has already cancelled their 2021 game, and that leaves spots for 82 teams in the postseason. As of today, we count 85 teams that are on pace of a minimum of six wins. The 6-6 line has a large number of teams.
Here is our first stab at the projections for 2021-22. Unlike recent years, there is a lot more wiggle room for different conferences to appear in multiple bowls.
Bowl
Team
Team
Bahamas
UTSA
Toledo
Cure
Liberty
Marshall
Boca
Florida Atlantic
Coastal Carolina
New Mexico
UTEP
Wyoming
Independence
BYU
Louisiana Tech
Lending Tree
Western Michigan
Troy
L. A.
San Jose St.
Arizona St.
New Orleans
UAB
Louisiana
Myrtle Beach
Appalachian St.
Northern Illinois
Famous Idaho Potato
Kent St.
Boise St.
Frisco
Memphis
Utah St.
Armed Forces
Army
Washington
Gasparilla
East Carolina
Iowa St.
Hawaii
Houston
Nevada
Camellia
Miami (O)
South Alabama
Quick Lane
Ball St.
Western Kentucky
Military
Virginia Tech
Central Florida
Birmingham
Miami (Fla.)
Mississippi St.
First Responder
TCU
Fresno St.
Liberty
Kansas St.
Arkansas
Holiday
North Carolina
Utah
Guaranteed Rate
Air Force
Baylor
Fenway
Boston College
SMU
Pinstripe
Pittsburgh
Indiana
Cheez-It
Wake Forest
Texas
Alamo
Oklahoma St.
Stanford
Duke’s Mayo
North Carolina St.
Auburn
Music City
Minnesota
Tennessee
Las Vegas
Wisconsin
USC
Tax Slayer Gator
Virginia
LSU
Tony The Tiger Sun
Louisville
UCLA
Arizona
Central Michigan
San Diego St.
Citrus
Michigan
Ole Miss
Outback
Michigan St.
Florida
Texas
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Peach
Clemson
Penn St.
Fiesta
Oregon
Notre Dame
Rose
Ohio St.
Oregon St.
Sugar
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Cotton
Iowa
Alabama
Orange
Georgia
Cincinnati
Championship
Georgia
Alabama
This Week’s TV Fare
This week presents fewer total games, as we mentioned early that 28 teams have bye weeks. There are a handful of important and exciting games on the schedule, but this may be the week to watch the Major League Baseball Playoffs more than college football.
Saturday, October 9
Time (ET)
Network
Home
Visitor
12:00 PM
ABC
Texas (n)
Oklahoma
Fox
Ohio St.
Maryland
ESPN
Ole Miss
Arkansas
ESPN2
Tennessee
South Carolina
FS1
Baylor
West Virginia
CBSSN
Toledo
Northern Illinois
BTN
Rutgers
Michigan St.
SEC
Florida
Vanderbilt
3:00 PM
ACC
Louisville
Virginia
3:30 PM
CBS
Auburn
Georgia
ABC
BYU
Boise St.
ESPN
North Carolina
Florida St.
ESPN2
Syracuse
Wake Forest
FS1
Colorado St.
San Jose St.
CBSSN
Navy
SMU
BTN
Illinois
Wisconsin
4:00 PM
Fox
Iowa
Penn St.
SEC
Missouri
North Texas
Pac-12
Washington St.
Oregon St.
7:00 PM
ESPN
Texas Tech
TCU
ESPNU
Kent St.
Buffalo
CBSSN
Air Force
Wyoming
7:30 PM
ABC
Nebraska
Michigan
SEC
Kentucky
LSU
ACC
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame
8:00 PM
CBS
Texas A&M
Alabama
FOX
USC
Utah
FS1
San Diego St.
New Mexico
9:00 PM
ESPN2
Tulsa
Memphis
10:30 PM
ESPN
Arizona
UCLA
CBSSN
Nevada
New Mexico St.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football–October 7-9, 2021
After a week with a minimum of outstanding TV games, you will have a feast of great games this coming weekend. It will be possible to sit on your sofa in your man cave from Noon Eastern Time until 2 AM Sunday and be presented with excellent football game choices. This is a weekend where you might want to have multiple monitors at the ready. Here are our starred games on the tube.
All Times Eastern Daylight
Friday Night
Maryland vs. Iowa
The Terrapins haven’t been 5-0 since 2001, when they won the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship and lost to Florida in the Orange Bowl. Maryland Stadium should be jam-packed as Coach Mike Locksley leads his charges onto the field to face the presumptive Big Ten West favorites in this battle of unbeaten teams. It’s still early, but a Hawkeye win to make Iowa 5-0 could put them on pace to run the table to the Big Ten Championship Game.
TV Info: 8 PM on FS1
Saturday Games
Georgia vs. Arkansas
Georgia’s quick 35-0 first quarter lead over Vanderbilt was achieved almost effortlessly, and Coach Kirby Smart took his starters out after the first quarter. It was like a walk-through practice for their regulars.
Arkansas played a tough 60-minute game against old Southwest Conference rival Texas A&M, knocking off the Aggies in a mild upset to start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2003. If you’re wondering when the last time Arkansas was 5-0, it was 1998. A week from today, that should still be true, but this should be an interesting game to watch to start the day. Beating Vanderbilt 62-0 this year is almost inevitable. Beating Arkansas by three touchdowns or more would justify moving the Bulldogs to number one in the nation. Of course, we did that this week.
TV Info: 12 Noon on ESPN
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
This is a fact-finding tour game for both teams. Can Wisconsin play a game without making multiple mental mistakes, or is this ingrained in their 2021 DNA? The Badgers could possibly be undefeated today if not for those crucial game-crushing mistakes. Was that Graham or Ethel Mertz throwing those touchdown passes to Notre Dame defenders at Soldier Field?
What are we to make of Michigan’s lack of offensive production against Rutgers? The Wolverines were leading the FBS in rushing yardage before the Scarlet Knights shut it down. The Maize and Blue need to control this game and win convincingly if they are really contenders for the Big Ten East title this year.
TV Info: 12 Noon on Fox
Missouri vs. Tennessee
Call this game a bowl qualifier. The winner has a strong path to bowl eligibility, while the loser will need to pull off at least one if not two upsets to get to 6-6. What makes this a much-watch game is that this is the middle of the SEC, and these teams have just enough talent to pull off an upset down the road against a potential Playoff-contender.
TV Info: 12 Noon on SEC Network
TCU vs. Texas
Some of the shine came off this game when TCU fell to Metroplex rival SMU. However, both teams are still undefeated in the Big 12, and the winner becomes the top contender to Oklahoma, who all of a sudden looks quite vulnerable. This should be your typical Southwestern Shootout with up to 90 total points scored, and if Texas wins handily like they did against Texas Tech, the Sooners better take notice before they head to the State Fair the week after.
TV Info: 12 Noon on ABC
Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati
Clemson has played itself out of the Playoff race with two losses. Ohio State will follow the Tigers if they lose another game. Texas A&M and Iowa State couldn’t live up to their preseason hype. If the Playoff Committee has to choose four teams today, Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma would be three of the choices, but choice number four would be wide open between Penn State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Florida. The winner of this game in South Bend is going to be in great shape to run the table. Notre Dame’s remaining schedule looks soft. Cinti has one tough game at home against SMU and a possible rematch in the AAC Championship Game. We pronounce this one to be the top game of the day. Clear your schedule. This game should be close and may not be decided until the closing minutes.
TV Info: 2:30 PM on NBC
Alabama vs. Ole Miss
For the rest of the nation not reading this feature, this will be their game of the week. The top two Heisman Trophy Award contenders will face off in Tuscaloosa. Tide quarterback Bryce Young is being called the best game manager in college football. You want to know another former Alabama quarterback that was an excellent game manager? Bart Starr merely led the Green Bay Packers to five NFL Championships.
Matt Corral is the exciting, dual threat superstar that has given Alabama all of its defeats in the last decade. Ole Miss could score 40 or more points in this game and still lose by double digits. It should be an interesting game, but the Tide has a bit more talent, and Nick Saban owns part of Lane Kiffin’s subconscious.
TV Info: 3:30 PM on CBS
Kansas St. vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma doesn’t look anything like a Playoff contender, as they were lucky to survive at home against a fair but not great West Virginia team. Kansas State laid an egg against an Oklahoma State team that has not been the most dominant 4-0 team.
The loser of this game will most likely lose at least one other conference game, and that will eliminate that team from Playoff contention. Kansas State lost to Arkansas State the week before going to Norman last year and handing the Sooners a loss. The Wildcats have the talent to repeat the upset, especially if the OU offense doesn’t get a tune-up this week in practice.
TV Info: 3:30 PM on Fox
Stanford vs. Oregon
The Ducks earned a lot of Playoff Committee bonus points by winning at Ohio State, but their other games have not been totally impressive. The Pac-12 has so much parity that the also-ran teams have better chances to upset the contenders than in any other Power 5 league. Stanford hasn’t defeated a quality team this year, as USC has now proven to be mediocre at best. The Ducks have had difficulty winning in Palo Alto through the years, and a loss here would kill their chances of making the Playoffs, especially with road games against Washington, UCLA, and Utah still to be played.
TV Info: 3:30 PM on ABC
Rutgers vs. Ohio St.
As John McEnroe might say, “you cannot be serious!” Rutgers playing Ohio State is a key TV game? The Buckeyes might be walking into a garden ambush at SHI Stadium in Piscataway. Rutgers had a chance to win in Ann Arbor, and they stopped a btter running game than Ohio State has this year. Can they also stop a top passing game? It should be interesting and worth watching.
TV Info: 3:30 PM on Big Ten Network
Kentucky vs. Florida
Who will play top contender for the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC East? Kentucky has been improving year by year on the defensive side but has been lacking offensively due to problems passing the ball. Coach Mark Stoops brought Liam Coen to Lexington after running the Los Angeles Rams’ offense. The Wildcats still have a top notch defense, but the passing game is struggling a bit.
In the second half of their game against Alabama, Florida looked like the superior team. A lousy first half did the Gators in. Not having Anthony Richardson to play these last two games have played a little toll on the Gator offense. If Richardson is full strength, Florida should be able to top Kentucky in Lexington. Florida must keep winning every week to make the Georgia game essential. The Gators are still very much in the Playoff race.
TV Info: 6 PM on ESPN
Oklahoma St. vs. Baylor
Who would have predicted that these teams would both be 4-0 when they faced off? Both teams have to be considered Big 12 Championship Game contenders, but the Cowboys are probably a legitimate contender, where the Bears must still prove they are for real. A win here adds to the proof given when they beat Iowa State.
TV Info: 7 PM on ESPN2
Clemson vs. Boston College
It’s obvious by now that Clemson’s offense has suffered too many losses from last year’s team, as many defenses have successfully held that tiger. Boston College survived a 56-yard field goal to pick up a rare ACC win over an SEC team. At 4-0, the Eagles are one of two remaining undefeated teams left in the league (Wake Forest). If BC can win this game and look like it was not a fluke, then at least, the league can pretend to still have a playoff contender.
TV Info: 7:30 PM on ACC Network
Oregon State vs. Washington
Oregon State played one bad quarter against Purdue in the season opener, and that’s why the Beavers are not 4-0 and threatening to make the Pac-12 North a two-team race. Washington lost to Montana in week one and then fell to Michigan in week two. The Huskies still might win the North Division title, but they have no chance to make the Playoffs.
The winner of this game will be tied for first at the minimum and in sole possession of first if Stanford beats Oregon. OSU looked like a serious contender in their pasting of USC in the Coliseum. The last time the Beavers had won at the Coliseum was 1960, when Tommy Prothro was coaching the team, and future Heisman Trophy quarterback Terry Baker was leading it. If Tristan Gebbia can stay healthy, Oregon State just might be the team that Oregon has to worry about.
TV Info: 9 PM on Pac-12 Network
UCLA vs. Arizona St.
This is a battle for first place in the Pac-12 South, but neither team is in contention for a Playoff bid. ASU lost to BYU, while the Bruins lost to Fresno State. At 12-1, neither team would get in against a third place SEC school that is 11-1.
The PiRates begin updating the ratings during the second half of the late Pac-12 game, so we always have the audio up on these games while working through the wee hours of the morning. These games are always exciting and keep us alert. You get your money’s worth with Pac-12 games, even if it no longer really is the “conference of champions.”
TV Info: 10:30 PM on FS1
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football–September 30-October 2, 2021
Note: We want to thank all our fans that were part of the opening weekend introduction of the PiRate Ratings Pro Football Simulation Tabletop Game. We were overwhelmed by the number of orders you made for the salute to the American Football League.
If you are interested in knowing more about the game, click on the link below.
Indiana vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats could pick up some much needed schedule strength with a road win against the Hoosiers, although Indiana’s big loss to Iowa may not make a CU win all that influential to the Selection Committee down the road. As of this publication, it has not been decided if this will be the ABC or ESPN game.
Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina: Why do we call this important? Coastal Carolina has a chance to run the table for a second consecutive regular season, and this figures to possibly be their second toughest game on their schedule. If the Chanticleers win this one on the road, then possible a road game against Appalachian State on October 20 will be all that stands in CCU’s way of going 12-0 and competing for a NY6 Bowl. This game will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU.
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska: We don’t expect an exciting game in this one, but it marks a very important 50th anniversary. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, the number one Cornhuskers visited Norman to face the number two Sooners in the “Game of the Century.” We believe it was the game of the second half of the century, as the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game at Yankee Stadium was just as big.
On that great day 50 years ago, the lead changed hands three times with Nebraska tailback Jeff Kinney diving into the end zone late in the fourth quarter to give the ‘Huskers the 35-31 win. Oklahoma went on to the Sugar Bowl and destroyed a 9-1 Auburn team that had Heisman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan at quarterback. The final score was 40-22, but it was 40-6 before Coach Chuck Fairbanks emptied his bench.
Nebraska met undefeated Alabama in the Orange Bowl for the national title. The game was a blowout by halftime, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 win. Nebraska finished first in the polls, and Oklahoma finished #2. Colorado, which only lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma edged Alabama for #3, while the Tide fell to #4. This was the only time in history that the #1 team beat the #’s 2, 3, and 4 teams in a season.
As for this year’s game, Oklahoma should win by a lopsided score, but maybe Nebraska will play its best game under Coach Scott Frost and make it interesting. Catch this game on Fox.
West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies look strong enough defensively to compete with all their ACC brethren, while West Virginia is a work in progress under second year coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers are a different team at Mountaineer Field than they are on the road. This should be a stern test for Justin Fuente’s squad. This one airs on FS1.
3:30 PM
Florida vs. Alabama: Florida might have a bit of a quarterback controversy between starter Emory Jones and exciting backup Anthony Richardson. Jones tossed two interceptions against South Florida’s defense. Richardson ran for 115 yards and a touchdown on just four carries, and he was three for three for 152 yards and two touchdowns through the air.
Alabama has no controversies. The Tide look unstoppable with what should be a rebuilding year. Can they manhandle the Gators in Gainesville? A 20+ – point win looks highly possible. This game is CBS’s first SEC game of the season.
7:30 PM
Penn St. vs. Auburn: This is Bryan Harsin’s first test as Auburn’s head coach. Penn State is not all the way back as a power, but playing them at Happy Valley is quite difficult. Expect a potentially lower scoring game, but it should be highly competitive and worth watching. It’s the ABC prime time game.
10:15 PM
BYU vs. Arizona St.: After dominating Utah Saturday night, this BYU team looks just as tough or even tougher in 2021 than it looked in 2020 with an All-American quarterback now starting for the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Arizona State has quietly started 2-0 with two creampuffs.
The Sun Devils have withstood some major accusations with potential illegal recruiting, so bad, that an insider has claimed that an incredible tell-all book about the transgressions would be a bestseller.
This figures to be ASU’s last chance for multiple seasons to make hay before their sun sets with numerous punishments, that is if the NCAA has any investigators remaining. This game airs on ESPN.
10:45 PM
UCLA vs. Fresno St.: After Saturday’s Oregon win at Ohio State, Fresno State’s close loss to the Ducks on September 4 looked a lot more impressive. The Bulldogs won’t be intimidated by the 2-0 Bruins, coming off a big win over LSU plus a week off.
UCLA didn’t need the week off after beating LSU at the Rose Bowl, but the Bruins won’t be hurt by the bye week. This should be an action-packed and exciting game, and Fresno State could still be there in the fourth quarter with a chance to win. Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.
Wide Variety InStyles This Year
The up-tempo offenses of the recent decade have some new company with teams going the other way. The hurry-up no huddle teams are still to be found in great numbers. However, some coaches are killing the clock trying to play ball-control and taking all the time off the play clock between plays.
Here’s an exceptional case in point to show the extremes from yesterday. Central Michigan played ball-control yesterday against FCS opponent Robert Morris. They gave RMU just 38 scrimmage plays (30 runs and 8 passes). The total of 119 plays looked like a game from the 1950s. In Madison, WI, Eastern Michigan was also held to 38 plays and 92 total yards against the Badgers in a game that had just 113 total plays. Several additional games were limited to less than 130 scrimmage plays, something that has been a rarity in recent seasons. Troy and Liberty combined for just 114 scrimmage plays.
At the other extreme, Marshall did something rarely done in college football history. They ran 100 plays in their win over UNC Central. They gained 700 yards. Arkansas State just missed 100 with 99 plays; they scored 50 points against Memphis, and they lost! North Texas had 96 plays against SMU and scored just 12 points.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football September 12, 2021
College basketball between 1967 and 1973 was all about one team against the rest. UCLA so dominated basketball in those years that their games were seldom entertaining to non-Bruins fans. They won games by scores such as 115-65, 114-56, and 82-43. They beat other top 10 teams by scores like 79-53, 73-57, and 96-77. In the rare occasion that they played the #1 team, when they were not ranked #1, they merely won 101-69 after leading by 44 points before putting in the scrubs.
Alabama football has reached that same point. Games are no longer entertaining unless you are a Crimson Tide fan. Coach Nick Saban has reached the same level as John Wooden. Last year, Alabama played a 10-game all SEC schedule plus two playoff games. Six of the 13 opponents were ranked, and ‘Bama won these six gamed by an average of three touchdowns per game. The Tide suffered heavy losses to the NFL Draft, including the Heisman Trophy winner and a 1st round picked quarterback. For any other program, 2021 would be a large rebuilding season. For Alabama, they simply plug in the next 1st round draft pick at QB, who after one career start is now the front-runner for this year’s Heisman Trophy. It’s just like Sidney Wicks replacing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the best player in the nation in 1969-70, and Bill Walton replacing Wicks in 1971-72.
Revenge Of The FCS
Six FCS teams beat FBS teams in Week One of the college football season. While South Dakota State beating Colorado State may not have been all that surprising, since SDSU is the Alabama of FCS, but when Washington lost at home to Montana, that shook the Power 5 Pac-12 to its foundation.
There are two reasons why these FCS teams were more competitive than normal. First, these FCS teams played football in the Spring. Most of these teams looked like they were in mid-season form, playing more like a Power 5 team in a postseason bowl. Also, with the free extra year given to all players by the NCAA, age tends to lead to parity. An outstanding 5-star 18-year old is light years better than a 3-star 18-year old. A 23-year old college football player most likely is a 3-star holdover, and he is little better than a 23-year old 2-star player at an FCS school.
An excellent case in point is the East Tennessee State slaughter over Vanderbilt. Everything possible was in place to forecast this 20-point blowout win over the SEC host. The Buccaneers played in the Spring and enjoyed an incredible year on the defensive side of the ball. Most of their two-deep returned. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt brought in a new coaching staff after the Commodores went 0-9 and had to use a female soccer player as their placekicker in their final two games. Numerous players left the team via the Transfer Portal, and the incoming coach made it known that he preferred not to sign players from that portal. The Commodores are a very youthful team lacking any real star players, while ETSU had one player in his late 20’s playing Saturday night. Thus, not only was the game an upset that finished 41 points different from the spread, it was obvious that ETSU dominated the Commodores. In some respect, men beat boys.
With all FBS teams now having a game under their belts, expect some of this FCS advantage to disappear each week until it is gone.
Must Watch Games This Week
12 Noon Eastern
Oregon visits the giant horseshoe to face Ohio State on Fox. The Ducks underperformed in a win over Fresno State, but it was obvious that they didn’t show the nation all their weapons. The Pac-12 suffered numerous black eyes, with the rest of the North Division losing their first games.
3:30 PM Eastern
Saturday is the 20th anniversary of the tragic bombings in New York and Washington, D.C. It is no coincidence that Air Force and Navy will play on CBS rather than their regular SEC game.
On ABC, Iowa visits Iowa State for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. The Cyclones were not impressive in their opener against Northern Iowa, but last year, Iowa State lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by 17 in their first game and then beat Oklahoma two weeks later. Iowa looked like the class of the Big Ten West when they trounced Indiana.
7:00 PM Eastern
Perhaps the game of the day comes from Fayetteville, Arkansas, where the Razorbacks will host long-time arch-rival Texas in a game that will soon become a regular affair once Texas joins the SEC (maybe in 2022). Neither team is the dominant top 10 team like they were many times in the 1960’s and 1970’s, but this should be an incredibly, hard-fought game between two 1-0 teams. Catch this game on ESPN.
Mississippi State hosts North Carolina State, and the ACC is suffering more than the Pac-12 after one week. The Wolfpack were one of two bright spots for the ACC, while the Bulldogs had to win on the final play over Louisiana Tech. This should be a close game, and the teams will fight tooth and nail to get to 2-0. This one is on ESPN2.
7:30 PM Eastern
Missouri visits Kentucky in a battle to determine which SEC East team will become the potential top challenger to Georgia, assuming Florida does not retain this position. Missouri had a pedestrian performance in a win over Central Michigan in week one. On the other hand, Kentucky unveiled a new offense led by former Rams’ assistant Laim Coen. Coen’s offense made Penn State transfer Will Levis look like Jared Goff of 2018. Can the Cats put up flashy numbers against an SEC opponent? Tune into this one on The SEC Network.
10:15 PM Eastern
The late games this week could be duds except for the Utah at BYU game in Provo. Aside from it being a rivalry game, both schools looked strong in week one wins. Catch this rivalry game on ESPN.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football, September 7, 2021
By the time one reaches his or her 60’s, he or she probably knows somebody close, maybe a member of his/her family or a friend that has passed on to the hereafter, when the dearly departed seemed just fine a couple months before passing. Maybe, it was an unexpected cardiovascular issue. Maybe it was cancer that was detected too late and was well into the fourth stage. In too many cases in the last 18 months, maybe it was Covid, where the person was asymptomatic until symptoms developed followed by the cytokine storm that shut down the body organs.
The Big 12 Conference was like a friend, the child of very good friends known as the Southwest Conference and the Big 8 Conference. Just a few weeks ago, the Big 12 was asymptomatic, until July 21. On that day a media doctor in Houston diagnosed a potentially fatal disease that has the Big 12 in the process of going through the five stages of death.
Immediately, once that specialist in Houston diagnosed Realignment Syndrome, and that the conferences’ top two revenue generators were terminal, the first step of the process was denial. No, it was not true; Texas and Oklahoma were not leaving for the SEC.
Then, the second stage, anger quickly replaced the denial once it became official that the two schools had applied for admission to the SEC. After anger came bargaining. The Big 12 hurriedly tried to make an arrangement with other conferences, probably the Pac-12 and definitely the American Athletic Conference. When the rumors began to circulate that the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 were looking at an alternative to compete against the SEC, it became time for depression to set in. By the time the 2021-2022 football season concludes, the Big 12 will come to an acceptance and realize it is beyond their control.
The irony in this is that eight of the ten Big 12 teams are likely to be bowl eligible this year in what should be a strong year for the Big 12. And, there are two teams talented enough to make a run to the Playoffs. Alas poor Big 12. We knew him well. There is a strong possibility that this is the last Big 12 preview the PiRate Ratings will release. Where the other eight teams play in 2022 is anybody’s guess.
Here is how the Big 12 Media voted their preseason poll in the league’s meetings.
Big 12 Conference Media Poll
Team
1st Pl
Overall
Oklahoma
35
386
Iowa St.
4
351
Texas
273
Oklahoma St.
266
TCU
255
West Virginia
185
Kansas St.
163
Baylor
124
Texas Tech
103
Kansas
39
Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings.
Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Oklahoma
129.3
126.7
128.2
128.1
Iowa St.
125.3
123.5
125.6
124.8
T C U
116.6
115.1
116.3
116.0
Texas
116.7
114.5
115.6
115.6
Oklahoma St.
113.5
113.2
112.5
113.1
West Virginia
113.8
112.0
111.1
112.3
Baylor
104.9
104.8
103.8
104.5
Kansas St.
104.9
104.7
103.5
104.4
Texas Tech
102.0
102.8
100.8
101.9
Kansas
88.1
85.6
82.5
85.4
Big 12 Averages
111.5
110.3
110.0
110.6
Here is a capsule of each team.
Oklahoma lost consecutive games to Kansas State and Iowa State to start the 2020 season 1-2. The following week, the Sooners played Texas at the old Cotton Bowl Stadium and the Sooners blew two leads, allowing Texas to send the game to overtime. Through three overtimes, the score was still tied, and Oklahoma was fortunate to make it that far. The Sooners were oh so close to starting a season 1-3 for the first time this century. OU won the game in the fourth overtime when Texas couldn’t score. At 2-2, the Sooners reeled off seven wins in a row, including an impressive Big 12 Championship revenge victory over Iowa State. Then, in the Cotton Bowl, the Sooners made mincemeat out of Florida, winning by five touchdowns.
Coach Lincoln Riley welcomes back one of the top quarterbacks in the country, and he’s just a sophomore. Spencer Rattler played like a seasoned pro the last seven games of the season, while leading the Sooners to an average of 45 points per game in the winning streak. Spencer could easily top 350 passing yards this year, while guiding the Sooners to possibly 50 points per game in the nation’s most prolific offense.
It’s not just Rattler that has us so high on this team. There are no weaknesses in any unit on offense or defense. In addition to Rattler, the Sooners boast one of the top receiving corps in college football. Marvin Mims led the team with 37 receptions and 610 yards, and he wasn’t even a full-time starter last year. Theo Wease also had 37 receptions for 530 yards. Tight end Jeremiah Hall took advantage of his 18 receptions, scoring five touchdowns. Fellow tight end Austin Stogner was a big play receiver with 24 catches and 422 yards.
When Oklahoma runs the ball, they won’t be confused for the great Sooner teams of the past both before and after the Wishbone years, but they have two potential NFL talents on the roster. Kennedy Brooks didn’t play last year as a Covid opt-out, but he rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2019. Former Tennessee Vol Eric Gray averaged over five yards per attempt and was the only weapon the Vols had in many games.
The offensive line was going to have some questions, but the Transfer Portal was very beneficial here, as another former Tennessee player, Wanya Morris fills a key spot at left tackle.
The Sooner defense was a bit too generous in the first four games, but in the final seven, they gave up 17 points per game. This looks to be the best defense since coordinator Alex Grinch left Ohio State for Norman.
With the return from injury of linebacker Caleb Kelly, the Sooners have six experienced starters returning to the 3-3-5 defense’s front six, and since four linebackers have starting experience and are star players, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that OU uses some 3-4 or maybe even 2-4 alignments. Tackle Isaiah Thomas has All-American potential. He led the Sooners with 8 ½ sacks last year. Outside linebacker Nik Bonnito was an All-American last year, and he should repeat again this year if he stays healthy. Expect this front six to hold enemy runners to less than four yards per carry and get considerable pressure on quarterbacks.
The five-man secondary returns two starters, but the other three expected starters saw action and started some games at the end of the year when the OU defense improved. All five were in the secondary during the Cotton Bowl. The safety tandem of Pat Fields and DeLarrin Turner-Yell are among the best duos in the country.
Oklahoma’s schedule could help the Sooners make a run at the top spot in the polls this year. After a road game against Tulane and a home game against Western Carolina, game three will be a memorable one. Oklahoma hosts Nebraska in the 50th anniversary of the Greatest College Football Game Ever Played. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, #1 Nebraska came from behind in the last few minutes of the game to edge #2 Oklahma 35-31. Expect the Sooners to threaten 31 points before halftime. The key to an undefeated season is beating Iowa State twice. They face the Cyclones in Norman in November, and they will likely have to play them again two weeks later.
Iowa State returns more starters than Oklahoma, and the Cyclones won the Big 12 regular season title last year, but they begin the 2021 looking up at the Sooners by a couple points. Sixth year coach Matt Campbell has been loyal to the Cyclones and had turned down other big job opportunities to stay in Ames, but unless Iowa State quickly finds a new conference not named the American Athletic, this might be his swansong at Iowa State.
Brock Purdy must be considered a Heisman Trophy candidate. The senior quarterback completed roughly ⅔ of this passes last year, while averaging 11.3 yards per completion. If he can cut down on an interception percentage of 2.5% to less than 2%, then he could has a chance to sneak in and grab that hardware if he can shine in a victory over Oklahoma.’
The Cyclone receiving corps returns a stable of thoroughbreds led by Xavier Hutchinson, who led the team with 64 receptions for 771 yards last year. Tight end Charlie Kolar may be the leading contender for the Mackey Award this year after being a finalist last year. He caught 44 passes for 591 yards and seven touchdowns. Backup Chase Allen would start for most every other team in the nation.
Iowa State has a second Heisman Trophy candidate on their roster in running back Breece Hall. Hall rushed for 1,572 yards and 21 touchdowns in 12 games last year, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
The Cyclone offensive line returns all five starters, but the best player in this unit didn’t play last year. Guard Trevor Downing may be the best offensive lineman in the Big 12. Center Colin Newell rates as the top at that position in this league.
Iowa State averaged 33 points per game and narrowly missed topping 200 yards rushing and passing last year. It would not be shocking if they topped 35 points per game and did rush and pass for more than 200 yards per game this year.
The secondary is the strength of the ISU defense. Four of five starters return this year, and the second five are talented enough to start for many teams. Cornerbacks Anthony Johnson, Jr. and Tayvonn Kyle are the best outside defenders in the league.
The Cyclones return all three linebackers including strongside linebacker Mike Rose, who led the Big 12 in tackles and interceptions. Up front, ISU returns three players with extensive starting experience. End Will McDonald, IV, led the league in QB sacks with 10 ½.
A road game against West Virginia is the most likely speed bump that could prevent Iowa State from playing Oklahoma in November with both teams still unbeaten and ranked in the top 10. Last year, we believed that Oklahoma was a field goal better overall, and Iowa State has ever so slightly closed the gap to start the season.
After the top two, the next four teams are closely rated, and it would not be a surprise to see the four finish in a large tie for third place.
TCU looked strong down the stretch last year, when they won five of their final six games to finish 6-4. The Horned Frogs gave up 10.5 fewer points per game in that stretch than they did in the opening four games.
The offense was a bit more consistent last year, and with quarterback Max Duggan coming back this year, TCU should be just as consistent in 2021. Duggan led the Horned Frogs in rushing with 526 yards and 10 touchdowns. He passed for 1,795 yards with a 10/4 TD/INT ratio.
TCU is a run-first team, and this year’s squad will be a running back by committee with four capable rushers. The Frogs will likely wear teams down by pounding all four into the line during games.
When defenses begin to creep up to stop the run, Duggan can make them pay by locating his speedy receivers for big gains. Sophomore Quentin Johnston caught 22 passes for an eye-popping 22.1 yards per catch, the highest average per catch of any freshman in conference history. Taye Barber led TCU last year with 31 grabs.
The offensive line welcomes back three starters, but they pick up a fourth starter via the Transfer Portal in former Memphis tackle Obinna Eze. This blocking brigade should allow TCU to approach 35 points and 425 yards per game this year.
The defense should be strong up front, but it will be questionable in the back. In this league a questionable pass defense isn’t good for a team’s health.
The runaway best part of this defense are the bookends. Ends Ochaun Mathis and Khari Coleman make up the best terminal tandem in the league. Tackles Terrell Cooper and Corey Bethley are experienced seniors with several career starts. Bethley could have been selected in the NFL Draft, but he chose to return.
The brightest spots in the back seven of the 4-2-5 defense are cornerbacks Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and linebacker Dee Winters. If former Memphis safety T.J. Carter can prove to be a legitimate Big 12 safety, the Frogs’ liability might turn to a strength.
TCU should win all three non-conference games, so going 5-4 in the league would mean an 8-4 record and a chance to finish ranked with a win in a bowl game.
The Eyes of Texas are upon new coach Steve Sarkisian. The one-time Washington and USC head coach has most recently been Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator. Texas was not a bad team last year under Tom Herman. The Longhorns went 7-3 with an Alamo Bowl win over Colorado. All three losses were by a field goal or less or in overtime. Eight more points could have made UT 10-0.
The Longhorns averaged almost 43 points per game last year under Herman. In the past, Sarkisian had issues taking over high-powered offenses. For instance, when he became the offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons, replacing Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons went from NFC Champions with a potent offense to pedestrian for the next two seasons, bringing his dismissal. USC’s offense did not shine after he came there from Washington. Can Sarkisian buck history? With a looming move to the SEC, this will be one of the most interesting stories to follow.
Sark has to break in a new quarterback, as Sam Ehlinger may open the season as the Indianapolis Colts’ starting quarterback. As of the time of this writing, there was still a two-man fight for the starting quarterback job, but Hudson Card sure looks like the guy that will open the season against Louisiana. Card saw minimal action as a freshman and remains a freshman this year. The Longhorns are going to take a step back in their passing game.
The Longhorn running game is still in excellent shape. Returning starter Bijan Robinson and backup Roschon Johnson might be dual 1000-yard rushers in an old-fashioned veer type of offense, but the two should combine for 1,500 yards this year.
With an inexperienced quarterback, one would expect the passing yardage to drop off, and with the loss of a key receiver from last year, the Longhorns really need an infusion of talent here. There is good news and bad news on that front. Troy Omeire looked to be a potential star as a redshirt freshman last August, but he tore an ACL and missed the season. He was expected to return this year and be one of two main targets for whoever won the quarterback battle. But, Omeire has been having difficulties trusting his repaired knee and is not on pace to start when Texas plays Louisiana on September 4.
The offensive line is talented and experienced, but they have to learn a new system, moving away from the Urban Meyer type of spread that Herman used. Expect a few mistakes early in the season.
The Longhorn defense has a bit of rebuilding to do, having to replace its one star from last year. Joseph Ossai was a one-man offense disrupter both against the run and the pass. Two Transfer Portal linebackers will try to replace this irreplaceable star.
Texas should be a bit stronger on the back line than on the front line. However, the overall defense is not going to be strong enough to challenge Oklahoma and Iowa State for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. 5-4 in the league looks more like the norm for this club, and they better watch out and be ready to play against Louisiana in game number one. A lot of sharps in Nevada and the Caribbean have investments on the underdog Ragin’ Cajuns.
Oklahoma State beat Iowa State in late October to take the Big 12 lead, but an overtime loss to Texas a week later set up a make or break game against rival Oklahoma. The Sooners pasted the Cowboys by four touchdowns, to knock OSU out of the Championship Game picture. A Cheez-it Bowl victory over Miami ended a somewhat disappointing 8-3 season,
Coach Mike Gundy enters year 17 in Stillwater missing too many stars from last year’s team to compete for the conference championship, but they have enough talent returning to get into the mix of multiple 5-4 teams.
Spencer Sanders has been labeled with that “P” word since he matriculated to Stillwater. Sanders has yet to live up to that potential. Last year, he threw eight interceptions in just 247 attempts for a rather high 3.2% interception rate, really high for the Air Raid offense. Sanders lost his three leading receivers from last year, but former Washington State Air Raid receiver Tay Martin caught 112 passes in his sophomore and junior seasons, and he should team with Brennan Presley and Braydon Johnson after contributing in a minor way last year.
The running game loses its star running back, but Chuba Hubbard had an off year in his final season, and his production can be replaced.
The offensive line lost its best player in 1st team All Big 12 tackle Teven Jenkins, but numerous injuries led to many players seeing action last year, and there are a couple of transfers that should give the Cowboys a deep but not outstanding interior line.
The defense figures to be a little stronger this year, and OSU should finish near the top in scoring defense this year if their offense doesn’t experience too many short drives.
While none of the three units on the defense are full of stars, they are all solid and have some depth to back up the starters. The Cowboys use a 4-2-5 defense, and they have talent in all three units. Up front, Tyler Lacy and Trace Ford make competent ends. Malcolm Rodriguez led the Cowboys in tackles last year. Safeties Kolby Harvell-Peel and Tre Sterling both picked off two passes.
The non-conference schedule is a little tricky after the first game against Missouri State. Tulsa gave Oklahoma State an incredible defensive battle last year, and the Golden Hurricane might be better this year. Boise State has a new coach, but they are a major player on their blue field. If the Cowboys emerge at 3-0, they could easily be 5-0 when they play at Texas.
In Neal Brown’s two years at West Virginia, the Mountaineers have gone 5-7 and 6-4, not figuring in the Big 12 race either year. WVU led the Big 12 in both scoring and total defense last year, but the offense stalled too many times, scoring 59 points in their four losses. 2021 should be a season where the Mountaineers fare a little better offensively and a little weaker defensively.
Leading the offense is fifth year senior Jarret Doege. Doege was off and on last year, finishing with 14 touchdown passes and 2,587 passing yards. Almost every receiver from last year returns this year, led by last year’s top pass-catcher Winston Wright, Jr. (47 receptions, 553 yards).
WVU returns 1,000-yard rusher Leddie Brown. Brown averaged more than 100 rushing yards per game in 2020, scoring nine touchdowns. He caught 31 passes coming out of the backfield.
As good as these numbers are in the skill positions, the offensive line is the best part of the offense. Five players with extensive starting experience, two from different schools, return this year, and West Virginia should see a bump in rushing average and a drop in QB sacks.
The defense gave up less than 160 passing yards and less than 300 total yards per game last year. Gone are many of the key players that made those numbers happen. West Virginia has to rebuild in all three units, losing star nose tackle Darius Stills, linebacker Tony Fields, II, and safety Tykee Smith, who transferred to Georgia.
Defensive line will be the strength of this year’s defense. Dante Stills could have been drafted this year, but he chose to come back. End Jeffery Pooler, Jr., returns to anchor one side of the line.
Three starters return to the defensive backfield, led by free safety Alonzo Addae. Former Arizona Wildcat Scottie Young will start at strong safety after coming off the bench in his first year in Morgantown.
West Virginia has two tough non-conference games in backyard rival Maryland and neighbor Virginia Tech, and if the Mountaineers lose both games, they will be in jeopardy of suffering through another season where six or seven wins is the ceiling.
Baylor went from near the top to near the bottom of the Big 12 with Coach Dave Aranda replacing one of the top college football coaches of this era in Matt Rhule. The Bears suffered through a 2-7 season that saw BU being outscored by an average of 31-19 by teams that didn’t have the name “Kansas.”
The 2021 BU edition suffered heavy losses on the offensive side of the ball, including the transfer of quarterback Charlie Brewer. The Bears go from experienced senior to untested and less talented replacements. As of this writing, Aranda and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes have yet to determine the starter for the opener against Texas State. Junior Gerry Bohanon emerged from Spring Practice as the apparent starter, but as of the most recent scrimmage, Bohanon was the best runner of the trio competing for the job, but he was not the most accurate. Sophomore Jacob Zeno and redshirt freshman Blake Shapen are in the mix.
There is no real competition at the receiver slots, where this will be the strength of the offense. Tyquan Thornton caught 65 passes and averaged 17.5 yards per catch his first two seasons in Waco. He was limited to five games last year and saw quite a drop in his production. If he can return to his 2019 form, Baylor will move the ball because defenses will be forced to play deeper coverages. That will help possession receivers R.J. Sneed and Gavin Holmes find the seams in the zones.
The running game was awful in 2020, averaging a meager 90 yards per game. Trestan Ebner averaged only 2.1 yards per carry, but he did catch 26 passes and averaged 11.5 yards per catch.
The offensive line returns just one starter, but a couple of Transfers from the Portal should make this a decent offensive line. Baylor finished 2020 as the 100th-ranked scoring team and 118th-ranked total yards team (out of 127). If the new QB can throw accurate passes, BU should score up to 28 points per game this year.
The defense wasn’t that bad considering the offense couldn’t sustain long, time-consuming drives. Baylor gave up less than 400 yards per game last year, and with nine returning starters, the Bears could move up into the top four defenses in the league and possibly top 30 in the nation.
The strength of this defense is at linebacker where four starters return (if you count Jalen Pitre as a linebacker.) He is the Star position, which is part safety and part strong-side linebacker. He led BU with 60 tackles and 13 TFL last year. Terrel Bernard led the team with 3 ½ QB sacks, and he lines up on the opposite side of Pitre. Opponents will have difficulty running stretch plays and passing into the flanks against this duo.
Up front in the multiple odd front defense, two of last year’s three starters return, but incoming Transfer Portal talent improves this unit. Expect former LSU nose tackle Siaki Ika will command double team blocks that free up the linebackers.
The secondary features two talented safeties in Christian Morgan and J.T. Woods, both of whom intercepted three passes last year. There’s depth here, even if the talent is basically better than average but not exceptional, and Baylor will face multiple offenses with exceptional receivers.
A non-conference schedule that basically guarantees three wins is the only saving grace for Baylor this year. The Bears are capable of going 3-6 in league play to earn bowl eligibility at 6-6.
Kansas State went 8-5 in Coach Chris Klieman’s first season in The Little Apple in 2019. Last year was a major disappointment, as the Wildcats fell to 4-6 that included a non-conference loss to a weak Arkansas State team. Included in that poor record last year was a season-ending five-game losing streak where KSU surrendered almost 41 points per game. On the other hand, this is a team that went to Norman and beat Oklahoma.
Which Kansas State team will take the field more times than not in 2021–the team that beat Oklahoma and TCU, or the team that lost five in a row? We believe it will be more of the same, but not in separate runs like last year. The Wildcats return an experienced offense to run Klieman’s more conservative philosophy that he used to go 69-6 at North Dakota State and win four FCS national championships in five years.
Skylar Thompson returns to run the offense as a sixth year senior after a shoulder injury sidelined him a week after he led the Wildcats to the win over Oklahoma. When healthy in 2019, Thompson completed 60% of his passes at better than 13 yards per completion with a 12/5 TD/INT ratio. He ran for 11 more touchdowns, so he knows how to put points on the board.
The Wildcats are a run-first team, and in Deuce Vaughn, they have a potential All-conference back. Vaughn actually led the team in pass receptions last year, but that had more to do with backup QB Will Howard having issues throwing the ball downfield. Vaughn should top 1,000 rushing yards if he stays healthy, and that will allow Thompson more open space to find receivers downfield.
The receiving corps is adequate but not spectacular. Malik Knowles and Chabastin Taylor are asked to run deeper routes than normal in order to open running lanes for the rushing attack, so they will not catch as many balls per target as other receivers. However, their yards per catch will be in the upper parts of the rankings. They both averaged more than 15 yards per catch last year, and those numbers could improve with Thompson healthy again.
The offensive line has experience and depth returning, and they should provide ample protection for Thompson.
This offense will best serve the team if the running game can eat the clock and help an inexperienced defense stay off the field. If the running game can average 175 or more yards per game, and the team scores 28 points per game, that will give the Wildcats a fighting chance to return to a bowl.
The defense is going to need all the help it can get. When Thompson was injured, and the offense did not thrive, the defense wore down and became too generous. The bad news is that six starters are gone from that squad, including a couple of stars.
The strength of a pedestrian defense is the secondary. The addition of cornerback Julius Brents from Iowa instantly improves the pass defense. However, a weaker pass rush is going to allow enemy quarterbacks more time to find receivers, and even the best pass defenders eventually allow even average receivers to get open if the QB has five seconds to pass.
The fact that strong safety Jaron McPherson led the team in tackles last year speaks volumes. Kansas State finished last in the league, behind Kansas, in pass defense, and this team loses the only serious sack monster, as end Wyatt Hubert may become a starting defensive lineman for the Cincinnati Bengals this year.
The key to Kansas State becoming bowl eligible is their opening game against a rebuilding Stanford Cardinal team in a game that will be played at Jerry World in Arlington, Texas. Win that game, and the Wildcats have a strong chance to win five more. If KSU loses that game, then the home game against Nevada becomes questionable two weeks later, and finding three conference wins might be asking too much.
Texas Tech fired Mike Leach in 2009 after The Pirate led the Red Raiders to bowl games in all 10 years he was in Lubbock. His 2008 team climbed as high as number two in the national polls. Since Leach was given his walking papers, three head coaches have combined to lead TTU to just four bowls in 11 seasons and zero winning seasons in Big 12 play. This is a school where Patrick Mahomes started for three years, and the school went 16-21 in that time! Can this program continue to matter in FBS football with the probably collapse of this league? Lubbock is an outpost in the vast staked plains of Texas. People I personally know, including former Coach Tommy Tuberville, felt as isolated there as if they were on the International Space Station. Others have referred to the highways coming into Lubbock from other locations as miles and miles of miles and miles.
Texas Tech was not originally part of the Southwest Conference. The Raiders were members of the Border Conference for many years, then an Independent when there were 30 of them, and then finally the eighth member of the SWC, joining in 1960. In truth, Tech should probably be aligned with New Mexico, New Mexico State, Utah State, UTEP, UTSA, and other schools in a Group of 5 new conference. Alas, they will move mountains trying to gain admission to the Pac-12, because in just one month, Coach Matt Wells has admitted that the realignment issue is a big liability in recruiting. Tech cannot afford to lose just one or two recruits, so this is a big issue, and this is the reason we are almost as low on this team as we are on schools like Vanderbilt in the SEC. They just can’t lose recruits and continue to compete at a Power 5 level.
As for this year’s team, Texas Tech brings in former quarterback Sonny Cumbie as offensive coordinator, and the Raiders should go more with an Air Raid look. The question is will incoming Oregon transfer Tyler Shough be competent enough to learn and run this system with limited experience in an Air Raid offense? Shough might be a better running QB than any recent TTU QBs, but the Air Raid is all about quick short passing to set up the “6” play, where four receivers run deep vertical routes.
Tech has one receiver capable of getting open deep in Erik Ezukanma. He will be able to open shorter passing lanes for a contingent of different receivers, but none of them will strike fear in Big 12 defenses.
Tech may be strongest at running back, and it wouldn’t surprise us here on the PiRate ship if one or more become slot receivers. SaRoderick Thompson might be a 1,000-yard rusher in a standard one-back pro offense, but catching 30-40 passes may be more important this year.
The key to making the Air Raid offense work is an offensive line that can take very wide splits and still protect the quarterback. Leach’s offensive lines have taken as much as 4-foot splits. This forces defensive ends and outside linebackers to take an extra two steps to get to the passing pocket, and that fraction of a second extra gives the QB just enough time to read the coverage and make his throw. Tech has a decent but not great offensive line this year, led by the best player on the offense in center Dawson Deaton.
The Air Raid offense forces defenses to stay on the field a bit more, and the Texas Tech defense doesn’t need the extra burden after finishing a disappointing ninth in the league in scoring and total defense last year. The 2021 defense will be considerably stronger up front but somewhat weaker in the backfield. Wells has dipped into the Transfer Portal to make over this side of the ball, and even though the talent might have improved somewhat, having all these new players learn and master the defensive system is not always a fluid adventure. It can lead to occasional breakdowns, the type that lead to touchdowns for the other team.
The defensive front seven returns all its 2020 starters, led by tackle Tony Bradford. He prevented blockers from getting to inside linebackers Krishon Merriweather and Colin Schooler, who combined to make 138 tackles, 11 ½ for loss, and 5 ½ sacks.
The Red Raiders begin the season facing Houston at NRG Stadium, and the Cougars figure to be a slight favorite in that game. Any slight chance TTU has of sneaking its way to a 6-6 season requires an upset victory in this game. Tech will still need to pull off a conference upset to get to three league wins, and we don’t see that happening this year. Four wins may be the expectation, and for Tech fans’ sakes, we hope your school can find the proper new league for the oasis known as Lubbock.
Now, for the weakest Power 5 team in the nation. Can things actually get worse in 2021 for a Kansas team that went 0-9 last year, finished last in the nation in scoring defense and almost finished last in the nation in scoring offense? The school didn’t hire its new head football coach until the end of April, and Lance Leipold didn’t arrive in Lawrence until the first of May, after the end of Spring Practice.
It took Leipold four years to develop the Buffalo Bulls into the top program in the MAC East Division, and he took over a program that had won eight games just two years before. He inherits a Kansas team that looks more like the 1962 New York Mets of football, maybe even the 1899 Cleveland Spiders!
Can an offense that averaged a mere 15.8 points per game last year and barely 250 total yards per game not be improved in 2021? KU will likely see these numbers increase this year, but it will happen because the Jayhawks will play three non-conference games. They still should lose at least two of these three, and if South Dakota can bring an effort similar to the one they brought to Kansas State three years ago, even that game is not a gimme for the Jayhawks.
The offense turns the keys over to former North Texas quarterback Jason Bean. Bean couldn’t hold onto the starting job in Dentonm as Austin Aune eventually emerged as the starter. Bean figures to start ahead of the returning quarterbacks on the roster from last year, and that speaks volumes about the lack of talent on this team.
After quarterback, it only gets weaker, as Kansas is so far behind the rest of the Big 12 in every unit on the team, both offensive and defensive. Leipold and staff had to hustle to move players around and change positions during the Summer. The only bright spot on this team is kick returner Kenny Logan, who took a kick 100 yards to the house last year against Iowa State in a 52-22 loss. Logan will unfortunately get the most opportunities to return kicks of any player in Power 5 football.
Uncertainty as to the future of this school in conference alignment will lead to additional recruiting difficulties, and Leipold cannot be expected to start building this program back to respectability until KU has a known future. Having one of the best basketball programs in America can only help so far, because realignment is 99% about football. Having the worst Power 5 program isn’t something that attracts the Big Ten, but bringing in the Kansas City TV market and with KU being a member of the Association of American Universities will go a long way in helping the Jayhawks seek entry into the Big Ten. If Rock Chalk cannot gain admission, then it won’t only hurt the football program; it is going to harm the basketball program as well.
The PiRate Ratings are not designed to look forward for an entire season and predict won-loss records. Their sell by date is only until the next weekend of games conclude. Nevertheless, we issue predicted won-loss records just for fun.
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