The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 19, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:01 pm

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday August 24
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Florida (n) Miami (Fla.) 11.0 9.5 8.9
Hawaii Arizona -2.2 -0.3 -3.4
 

 

Thursday August 29
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Cincinnati UCLA 2.6 1.1 3.7
Tulane Florida Int’l. 4.4 5.4 3.7
Clemson Georgia Tech 36.7 34.0 36.7
Texas A&M Texas St. 36.5 33.7 34.9
Arizona St. Kent St. 26.4 24.6 26.8
BYU Utah -13.5 -11.5 -13.5
 

 

Friday August 30
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Army Rice 28.2 26.4 28.7
South Florida Wisconsin -12.1 -10.1 -10.9
Michigan St. Tulsa 27.1 26.4 26.2
Rutgers Massachusetts 21.2 18.1 21.2
Wake Forest Utah St. 1.3 2.0 0.0
Nevada Purdue -15.2 -13.4 -15.2
Colorado (n) Colorado St. 20.5 14.8 20.6
Oregon St. Oklahoma St. -11.9 -10.8 -12.3
 

 

Saturday August 31
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. East Carolina 18.9 16.1 19.5
Illinois Akron 16.5 17.3 15.4
Indiana (n) Ball St. 23.8 22.4 23.3
Nebraska South Alabama 35.9 33.8 36.8
Ohio St. Florida Atlantic 32.2 31.1 31.7
Kentucky Toledo 21.3 19.7 19.0
Memphis Ole Miss 3.1 3.7 5.6
Louisiana (n) Mississippi St. -25.0 -19.6 -25.8
North Carolina (n) South Carolina -14.3 -11.3 -12.7
Tennessee Georgia St. 30.8 29.0 30.3
Alabama (n) Duke 31.3 26.7 32.2
Coastal Carolina Eastern Michigan -5.2 -4.1 -7.1
Stanford Northwestern 0.3 0.1 1.5
Boston College Virginia Tech -1.5 -2.6 -1.6
Liberty Syracuse -21.3 -19.4 -21.0
Arkansas St. SMU -5.4 -4.3 -5.8
Florida St. (n) Boise St. 2.0 3.6 1.9
Vanderbilt Georgia -18.7 -17.8 -20.0
Auburn (n) Oregon 3.8 0.9 1.5
LSU Georgia Southern 28.0 25.3 27.3
Wyoming Missouri -18.5 -12.7 -17.7
Iowa Miami (O) 27.4 26.6 26.8
Michigan Middle Tennessee 35.2 33.8 35.8
Pittsburgh Virginia 3.4 2.4 2.7
Texas Louisiana Tech 23.4 23.5 22.5
Washington St. New Mexico St. 37.0 32.5 37.4
USC Fresno St. 7.2 8.0 6.8
 

 

Sunday/Monday September 1/2
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Oklahoma Houston 28.2 25.7 24.9
Louisville Notre Dame -23.8 -22.4 -25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home Visitor PiRate
San Jose St. Northern Colorado 14.5
Connecticut Wagner 12.6
Central Michigan Albany 9.8
Bowling Green Morgan St. 17.2
Buffalo Robert Morris 43.9
Charlotte Gardner-Webb 26.5
Western Kentucky Central Arkansas 11.9
Central Florida Florida A&M 45.5
UAB Alabama St. 45.5
Minnesota South Dakota St. 12.7
UNLV Southern Utah 17.3
Air Force Colgate 11.3
New Mexico Sam Houston St. 9.7
Maryland Howard 36.0
Iowa St. Northern Iowa 22.2
Kansas Indiana St. 13.8
West Virginia James Madison 18.5
Ohio U Rhode Island 27.6
Washington E. Washington 18.0
Temple Bucknell 44.2
Navy Holy Cross 24.4
Penn St. Idaho 40.5
Appalachian St. East Tennessee 36.3
Arkansas Portland St. 21.0
Texas Tech Montana St. 25.7
UTSA Incarnate Word 7.3
Troy Campbell 33.8
California UC-Davis 14.5
Marshall VMI 37.8
Old Dominion Norfolk St. 23.5
Southern Miss Alcorn St. 23.6
Kansas St. Nicholls 23.9
Baylor Stephen F Austin 37.3
Northern Illinois Illinois St. 7.3
Western Michigan Monmouth 20.5
North Texas Abilene Christian 19.4
UTEP Houston Baptist 15.2
TCU Ark. Pine Bluff 52.3
Louisiana-Monroe Grambling 24.3
San Diego St. Weber St. 8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0
2 Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7
3 Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1
4 Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4
5 L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0
6 Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6
7 Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5
8 Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0
9 Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4
10 Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2
11 Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0
12 Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8
13 Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7
14 Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5
15 Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6
16 Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5
17 Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2
18 Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8
19 South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2
20 Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8
21 Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9
22 Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8
23 Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6
24 Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2
25 Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2
26 Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1
27 Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7
28 Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2
29 Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1
30 Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6
31 Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5
32 Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2
33 Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9
34 Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7
35 Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3
36 Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1
37 Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0
38 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7
39 Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7
40 Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7
41 California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4
42 Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3
43 Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2
44 U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8
45 Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8
46 Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3
47 West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1
48 Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6
49 Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5
50 Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0
51 U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4
52 Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4
53 Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1
54 Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0
55 Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9
56 Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8
57 Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2
58 T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2
59 Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7
60 North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6
61 Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2
62 Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1
63 Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7
64 BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7
65 Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4
66 North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5
67 Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1
68 Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9
69 Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7
70 Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6
71 Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2
72 SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1
73 Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2
74 Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4
75 Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2
76 Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7
77 Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6
78 Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2
79 Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1
80 Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6
81 South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2
82 Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1
83 Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9
84 San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8
85 Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8
86 Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2
87 Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1
88 Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9
89 Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9
90 Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2
91 North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1
92 Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6
93 Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3
94 Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0
95 Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9
96 Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8
97 Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5
98 Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0
99 Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9
100 Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5
101 Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3
102 Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4
103 Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4
104 Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8
105 Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7
106 Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6
107 U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0
108 U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3
109 Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1
110 Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7
111 East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0
112 Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5
113 Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2
114 San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2
115 Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2
116 Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2
117 New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1
118 Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4
119 Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4
120 Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0
121 New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0
122 Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7
123 Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5
124 Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0
125 Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5
126 Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8
127 South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2
128 Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6
129 Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5
130 U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1 0-0 0-0
Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3 0-0 0-0
Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2 0-0 0-0
South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2 0-0 0-0
East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0 0-0 0-0
Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0 0-0 0-0
SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1 0-0 0-0
Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7 0-0 0-0
Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2 0-0 0-0
Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0 0-0 0-0
Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1 0-0 0-0
 

 

AAC Averages 95.2 95.9 95.8 95.6
 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7 0-0 0-0
Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8 0-0 0-0
Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5 0-0 0-0
Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1 0-0 0-0
Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2 0-0 0-0
North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6 0-0 0-0
Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6 0-0 0-0
Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9 0-0 0-0
Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7 0-0 0-0
Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3 0-0 0-0
Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9 0-0 0-0
North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5 0-0 0-0
Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

ACC Averages 106.6 106.1 106.9 106.5
 

 

Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0 0-0 0-0
Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9 0-0 0-0
Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1 0-0 0-0
Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1 0-0 0-0
Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5 0-0 0-0
Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8 0-0 0-0
West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1 0-0 0-0
T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big 12 Averages 108.2 108.6 107.7 108.2
 

 

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4 0-0 0-0
Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6 0-0 0-0
Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5 0-0 0-0
Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6 0-0 0-0
Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7 0-0 0-0
Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7 0-0 0-0
Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2 0-0 0-0
Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2 0-0 0-0
Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7 0-0 0-0
Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2 0-0 0-0
Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2 0-0 0-0
Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7 0-0 0-0
Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big Ten Averages 110.1 109.4 109.6 109.7
 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2 0-0 0-0
Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2 0-0 0-0
Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9 0-0 0-0
Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5 0-0 0-0
Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6 0-0 0-0
Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7 0-0 0-0
Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9 0-0 0-0
North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1 0-0 0-0
Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0 0-0 0-0
U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0 0-0 0-0
Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0 0-0 0-0
Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5 0-0 0-0
U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

CUSA Averages 86.2 86.8 86.6 86.5
 

 

FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5 x 0-0
Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7 x 0-0
BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7 x 0-0
Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7 x 0-0
New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0 x 0-0
Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6 x 0-0
 

 

Indep. Averages 94.2 95.2 94.3 94.5
 

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6 0-0 0-0
Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3 0-0 0-0
Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8 0-0 0-0
Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2 0-0 0-0
Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2 0-0 0-0
Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1 0-0 0-0
Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9 0-0 0-0
Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4 0-0 0-0
Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5 0-0 0-0
Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

MAC Averages 88.3 88.1 88.8 88.4
 

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6 0-0 0-0
Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0 0-0 0-0
Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4 0-0 0-0
Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1 0-0 0-0
New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1 0-0 0-0
Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1 0-0 0-0
San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6 0-0 0-0
U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3 0-0 0-0
San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

MWC Averages 93.0 94.7 93.1 93.6
 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8 0-0 0-0
Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8 0-0 0-0
Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6 0-0 0-0
Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3 0-0 0-0
California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4 0-0 0-0
Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0 0-0 0-0
Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7 0-0 0-0
U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8 0-0 0-0
U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4 0-0 0-0
Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.5 107.1
 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1 0-0 0-0
Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4 0-0 0-0
Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5 0-0 0-0
South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2 0-0 0-0
Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2 0-0 0-0
Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0 0-0 0-0
Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0 0-0 0-0
L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0 0-0 0-0
Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2 0-0 0-0
Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8 0-0 0-0
Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7 0-0 0-0
Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4 0-0 0-0
Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.3 113.2 114.6 114.4
 

 

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4 0-0 0-0
Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2 0-0 0-0
Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2 0-0 0-0
Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3 0-0 0-0
Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5 0-0 0-0
Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4 0-0 0-0
Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2 0-0 0-0
South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

SBC Averages 89.5 90.2 88.8 89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings

 

# League Average
1 SEC 114.4
2 BTen 109.7
3 B12 108.2
4 P12 107.1
5 ACC 106.5
6 AAC 95.6
7 Ind 94.5
8 MWC 93.6
9 SUN 89.5
10 MAC 88.4
11 CUSA 86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Cincinnati
3 Utah St.
4 Boise St.
5 Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conf Conf Team Team
Bahamas MAC CUSA Western Michigan Southern Miss.
Frisco AAC At-large Houston Florida Int’l.
Cure AAC SBC Temple Georgia Southern
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech San Diego St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Central Florida Ohio
Camellia MAC SBC Eastern Michigan Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Utah St. UCLA
New Orleans CUSA SBC #1 UAB Appalachian St.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Hawaii BYU/MWC AAC BYU Memphis
Independence ACC SEC Florida St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Northwestern
Military ACC AAC Pittsburgh South Florida
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Minnesota
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Mississippi St.
Holiday Pac-12 Big Ten Washington St. Iowa
Cheez-It Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Hawaii
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) Iowa St.
Cotton At-large At-large Army Washington
First Responder CUSA Big 12 Marshall TCU
Redbox Pac-12 Big Ten Stanford Wisconsin
Music City SEC ACC Indiana Wake Forest
Orange ACC BTen/SEC Notre Dame Florida
Belk ACC SEC Syracuse Tennessee
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Tech Arizona St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Arizona SBC MWC Troy Fresno St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor Oregon
Citrus SEC BTen/ACC Texas A&M Nebraska
Outback Big Ten SEC Auburn Penn St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Utah
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC SMU North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator SEC Big Ten South Carolina Michigan St.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Air Force
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Purdue Boise St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta Top 4 Top 4 Clemson Georgia
Peach Top 4 Top 4 Alabama Michigan
Champsionship Fiesta Peach Clemson Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

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August 16, 2019

2019 Big 12 Conference Football Preview

In the 1970’s, the Big Ten was jokingly called the Big Two and Little Eight, as Ohio State and Michigan won or shared every Big Ten title between 1968 and 1982.  Oklahoma has won four consecutive Big 12 regular season championships and both of the Big 12 Championship Games since the game returned in 2017.  Lately, the Big 12 race has been more like the American League baseball race for years: who will finish in second behind the Yankees?

Oklahoma enters 2019 as a prohibitive favorite to win their fifth consecutive regular season and third consecutive Championship Game and must be considered a top contender to make the Field of Four NCAA Playoffs.  The Sooners will have to get there without the services of the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner, as Kyler Murray is now tossing the ball in the NFL.  The Oklahoma offense will most likely take a small backward step even though Coach Lincoln Riley went out in the free agent market and grabbed a great one in former Alabama starter Jalen Hurts.  Oklahoma’s offense figures to be a little weaker, because the offensive line and receiving corps must be rebuilt (or reloaded).

At the same time, Oklahoma’s defense figures to be somewhat better than last year, but then again, it would be hard for it to be any worse after giving up more than 33 points and 450 yards per game.

Texas returned to prominence last year under second year coach Tom Herman.  After a 7-6 season in 2017, the Longhorns beat Oklahoma in the regular season before blowing a lead in the conference championship game and losing to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.  Texas has numerous holes to fill, especially on defense, where only two starters return.

Iowa State is a team that can be compared to the mountain lion hiding on a bluff ready to pounce and attack an unsuspecting deer.  It should be no surprise that the Cyclones should be quite good this year after posting consecutive eight-win seasons.  ISU returns more starting talent than Oklahoma and Texas, and Matt Campbell might be one of the five best coaches in football, be it college or professional.

Baylor must be considered the dark horse in the race this year.  After enduring a total rebuild after the previous regime left under a dark cloud, Matt Rhule has done a commendable job bringing the Bears back to competitive football.  The Baylor offense could challenge for best in the league, and the defense should be a little improved.  Keep an eye on BU.

There are new head coaches at Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas, and West Virginia.  Matt Wells comes to Texas Tech after doing great things at Utah State, but his wide-open offense is quite different from the Air Raid used by former coach Kliff Kingsbury, and the Red Raiders will need time to adjust.

Bill Snyder has retired for the second time, and Kansas State must start over with Chris Klieman, the Dabo Swinney of FCS football.  Klieman won four FCS National Championships at North Dakota State, and he inherits a decent roster.  Still, there will be an adjustment with new systems on both sides of the ball, so the Wildcats will need a year or two in transition to be competitive again.

Dana Holgorsen, in a semi-surprise move, bolted West Virginia for Houston, and the Mountaineers must start over with former Troy coach Neal Brown and without Will Grier at quarterback.  Both sides of the ball suffered heavy losses, so 2019 will be a major rebuilding season.  Still, WVU might sneak into a lower-tiered bowl because one of the bottom four is likely to end up at 6-6.

Then, there is Kansas.  What the Jayhawks are to college basketball, they are the opposite in college football.  Since Mark Mangino was forced out at Kansas over several allegations of abuse, the KU program has been the weakest of any Power 5 Conference school.  Three coaches failed to turn the program around, as the Jayhawks are an incredibly poor 5-75 in the Big 12 since Mangino left.  Enter Les Miles as the new coach.  The Kansas football program will definitely be a little more exciting just because one never knows what Miles might do as the coach.  It would not be shocking to see Kansas go for a first down on fourth down inside their own 20 yard line.  They might run plays from the single wing, double wing, wishbone, or air raid offense–in the same possession!  The only for sure thing is that Les will sample the grass in every stadium the Jayhawks play.  If they happen to actually win a conference game this year, it will be a bonus.  They have a chance to begin the season 2-0, but they will almost assuredly lost the final 10.

Two teams remain in this little preview.  Oklahoma State and TCU have been middle of the pack teams in the last couple seasons, and they appear to still be behind the top four, while they are considerably better than the bottom four.  Because the Big 12 has a nine-game conference schedule, both the Cowboys and Horned Frogs can go 4-0 against the transitioning teams.  This means, they need to win two of their three non-league games to become bowl eligible.

Here is how the Big 12 Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Big 12 Conference Media Poll

 

Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Oklahoma 68 761
2 Texas 9 696
3 Iowa St. 0 589
4 TCU 0 474
5 Oklahoma St. 0 460
6 Baylor 0 453
7 Texas Tech 0 281
8 West Virginia 0 241
9 Kansas St. 0 191
10 Kansas 0 89
 

 

Championship Game Winner
None Chosen

 

The Initial PiRate Ratings believe the conference race will be a little bit different, and there won’t be a wide moat between Oklahoma and the next three teams.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Big 12

 

Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.8 119.4 120.4 120.2
Iowa St. 112.0 112.2 111.9 112.0
Texas 111.6 111.2 110.9 111.2
Baylor 110.1 110.2 109.6 110.0
Oklahoma St. 109.7 110.0 109.0 109.6
Texas Tech 108.1 107.6 107.2 107.6
Kansas St. 107.5 106.8 107.1 107.1
West Virginia 107.6 106.2 107.1 106.9
T C U 102.6 105.6 103.0 103.7
Kansas 95.6 96.5 95.3 95.8
 

 

Big 12 Averages 108.6 108.6 108.1 108.4

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss

 

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Oklahoma 7-2 11-2*
2 Iowa St. 7-2 10-3
3 Baylor 6-3 9-3
4 Texas 6-3 8-4
5 Oklahoma St. 5-4 8-4
6 West Virginia 4-5 6-6
7 TCU 3-6 6-6
8 Kansas St. 2-7 4-8
9 Texas Tech 2-7 5-7
10 Kansas 0-9 2-10
 

 

* Oklahoma picked to win Big 12 Championship Game

 

Bowl Predictions

Bowl Team
Playoffs Not This Year
Sugar Oklahoma
Alamo Baylor
Camping World Iowa St.
Texas Okla st.
Liberty Texas
Cheez-it WVU
First Responders TCU

 

Coaches That Could Move Up To Big-Time Programs

Matt Rhule, Baylor

Matt Campbell, Iowa State

 

Coaches on the Hot Seat

None this year

 

Top Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

Sam Ehlinger, Texas

Charlie Brewer, Baylor

Brock Purdy, Iowa St.

 

Top Offense

Oklahoma

Texas

Oklahoma St.

 

Top Defense

Iowa St.

Texas

TCU

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Big Ten Conference.  With Urban Meyer into his next round of retirement, Can Jim Harbaugh take Michigan to the Playoffs?  Can Scott Frost work magic at Nebraska like he did at Central Florida?  Will there be a multiple team tie for first in the Western Division with 6-3 conference records?

 

February 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:11 pm

February 18, 2019

Seed

School

Conf.

1

Gonzaga

West Coast

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Houston

American Athletic

3

Kansas

Big 12

3

Nevada

Mountain West

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

Virginia Tech

ACC

5

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa

Big Ten

5

Texas Tech

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

6

Villanova

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Florida St.

ACC

6

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Cincinnati

American Athletic

7

Buffalo

Mid-American

7

Auburn

SEC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

8

Wofford

Southern

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

9

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

Mountain West

10

St. John’s 

Big East

10

Syracuse

ACC

10

Minnesota

Big Ten

10

Central Florida

American Athletic

11

Temple

American Athletic

11

Oklahoma

Big 12

11

Clemson

ACC

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Seton Hall

Big East

12

Alabama

SEC

12

Butler

Big East

12

Hofstra

Colonial

12

Lipscomb

Atlantic Sun

12

Virginia Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

13

Vermont

America East

13

Yale

Ivy League

14

Old Dominion

CUSA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit

14

UC Irvine

Big West

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Missouri St.

Missouri Valley

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Sam Houston St.

Southland

16

Rider

Metro Atlantic

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

Northeast

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

 

First Four OUT

Indiana

Florida

Arizona St.

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

Murray St.

 

Last Four IN

Ohio St.

Seton Hall

Alabama

Butler

 

Last Four BYES

Central Florida

Temple

Oklahoma

Clemson

 

First Four

For the first time this year, we have staggered the seed lines for the First Four games involving the final four at-large bids.  We have one game pitting 11-seeds and another game pitting 12-seeds.  This could change before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the First Four games have mostly  been with 11-seeds, but there have been 12-seeds, and even 13-seeds and 14-seeds earlier in this decade.

Because of the rule that no teams from the same conference can face off in the First Four games, we had to move two teams in the seed line to prevent a conference matchup in Dayton.

11-Seed Line: Ohio State vs. Seton Hall

12-Seed Line: Alabama vs. Butler

16-Seed Line: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

16-Seed Line: Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

There are four teams that if they lose in their conference tournament, they will still be an at-large entry, and their conference will improve from one to two bids.

Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference

Washington in the Pac-12 Conference

Wofford in the Southern Conference

Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference

 

There are four other Mid-Major teams that need to be in the discussion by the Selection Committee (in addition to the Mid-Majors already on our Bubble above).

Murray State (or Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference

Liberty (or Lipscomb) in the Atlantic Sun Conference

Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference

Toledo in the Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

February 13, 2019

Bubbles Are Boiling

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:16 pm

Five Sundays from today, the NCAA Selection Committee will choose and seed the 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament.  At the present time, the Bubble list has begun to emerge with greater clarity.  There are about three dozen teams still competing for at-large bids, and more than half will not get into the Dance.

Some of the teams under consideration will eventually receive automatic bids when they win their conference tournaments.  On the other hand, there could be a few major upsets in the power conference tournaments forcing a bubble to pierce for one of these teams.

Let’s look at the principle boiling bubbles today.  We will let you decide if their resumes warrant bids or warrant bans to the NIT.

Team

Net

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Alabama

44

2-6

6-1

4-2

3-0

Arizona State

72

3-1

4-3

3-1

6-2

Baylor

32

3-5

7-1

1-0

5-2

Belmont

60

3-1

2-1

2-2

11-0

Butler

53

1-7

6-3

4-1

3-0

Central Florida

45

0-2

4-2

7-0

6-1

Clemson

39

2-6

2-2

5-0

6-0

Creighton

57

2-9

3-2

4-0

3-0

Davidson

68

0-2

3-1

6-3

8-0

Florida

42

1-9

3-1

3-1

5-0

Hofstra

51

0-2

0-1

4-1

16-0

Indiana

49

4-8

2-3

1-0

6-0

Lipscomb

30

2-3

2-1

2-0

12-0

Minnesota

58

3-6

4-2

4-0

5-0

New Mexico St.

59

0-1

2-1

8-2

9-0

North Carolina St

37

1-6

5-0

2-1

9-0

Ohio St.

36

4-5

3-2

4-0

5-0

Oklahoma

41

3-8

5-2

7-0

0-0

Ole Miss

35

3-7

3-0

4-0

6-0

Saint Mary’s

50

1-5

1-2

6-3

7-0

San Francisco

52

0-4

1-1

5-1

11-0

Seton Hall

69

2-6

7-1

2-2

3-0

St. John’s

48

4-4

4-1

2-2

8-0

TCU

33

1-7

5-0

7-0

4-0

Temple

55

1-5

5-1

4-1

7-0

Texas

34

4-6

4-4

3-1

3-0

Toledo

54

0-1

2-0

8-3

9-0

UNC Greensboro

46

1-3

1-0

5-0

13-0

Utah State

38

1-2

2-2

4-2

10-0

VCU

43

1-3

2-2

7-1

7-0

Wofford

28

2-4

3-0

4-0

9-0

Yale

62

0-3

1-0

5-1

8-0

 

Team

EFF.

SOS

Rd/Neut

Con

Ovr

Alabama

48

17

6-7

6-5

15-9

Arizona State

63

66

5-4

7-4

16-7

Baylor

34

50

5-4

7-4

16-8

Belmont

64

160

8-3

10-2

19-4

Butler

53

25

4-8

5-7

14-11

Central Florida

50

89

6-3

7-3

17-5

Clemson

31

36

4-6

5-5

15-8

Creighton

49

12

5-6

4-7

13-11

Davidson

75

106

7-6

9-2

18-6

Florida

38

29

5-7

4-6

12-11

Hofstra

67

225

7-4

11-1

21-4

Indiana

45

37

3-7

4-9

13-11

Lipscomb

33

204

9-3

11-0

20-4

Minnesota

56

51

5-6

6-7

16-8

New Mexico St.

54

134

9-3

9-1

20-4

North Carolina St

40

194

5-4

5-6

17-7

Ohio St.

32

49

6-3

6-6

16-7

Oklahoma

42

7

7-6

3-9

15-10

Ole Miss

39

63

7-4

6-4

16-7

Saint Mary’s

44

47

3-8

6-4

15-10

San Francisco

47

121

5-5

6-4

18-6

Seton Hall

66

40

6-6

5-6

14-9

St. John’s

52

57

7-4

6-6

18-7

TCU

37

20

6-5

5-6

17-7

Temple

76

56

8-5

7-4

17-7

Texas

28

3

4-6

6-6

14-11

Toledo

51

126

9-3

8-3

20-4

UNC Greensboro

80

188

10-2

11-1

22-3

Utah State

43

115

8-5

8-3

18-6

VCU

46

54

6-5

8-2

17-6

Wofford

30

133

8-3

13-0

21-4

Yale

72

123

7-4

5-1

15-4

 

Here’s an explanation of each column

Net: This is their official NCAA NET rating, the new and improved formula that supersedes all other, like the RPI.

Q1-Q4: These are the won-loss records for each quadrant.  The Quadrants are broken up into these groups.

Quadrant #

Home

Neutral

Road

Quadrant 1

1-30

1-50

1-75

Quadrant 2

31-75

51-100

76-135

Quadrant 3

76-160

101-200

136-240

Quadrant 4

161-353

201-353

241-353

If you play the #101 team at home, this is a Quadrant 3 opponent.  If you play the #101 team on their floor, this is a Quadrant 2 opponent.  If you host the #50 team, it counts as Quadrant 2, but if you play that team on a neutral floor or on the road, it is a Quadrant 1 game.

EFF.: This is the ranking in total efficiency, which is offensive efficiency combined with defensive efficiency and adjusted for strength of schedule.

SOS: This is the ranking of strengths of schedule for each team.  Keep in mind that the difference between #1 and #50 may be minimal, while the difference between #51 and #100 may be considerably more.

Rd/Neut: This is the combined road and neutral court won-loss records

Con and Ovr: Although not used by the Committee, this is the conference and overall won-loss records for each team for you to look at and decide for yourself if a certain team belongs in the Dance.  We are not 100% convinced that committee members don’t subconsciously let this stat creep into their decision-making process.  If a team finishes four games under .500 in their league while another finishes four game over .500, that four game swing is going to count for something, even if it isn’t supposed to count.

Trying To Think Like A Committee Member

Let’s look at each school on this list.

Alabama

With wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Committee might overlook losses to Northeastern and Georgia State.  Two of the Tide’s non-conference losses are to probable NCAA Tournament teams Central Florida and Baylor.  The Tide sits at 6-5 in the SEC and projects to a 10-8 or 11-7 final mark.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation with possibility of starting in Dayton.

Arizona St.

The Pac-12 surely cannot be limited to just one bid, can it?  The Committee is not supposed to look at this metric, but this is no different than when the judge tells the jury to disregard a remark from a sustained objection in a court room.  Of course, it is remembered.

Arizona State beat Kansas and Mississippi State.  This past weekend, they handed Washington their first Pac-12 loss.  The Sun Devils lost a close game to Nevada.  They also lost at home to Princeton and recently were blown out at home by Pac-12 cellar dweller Washington State by 21 points.  They also lost at SEC last place Vanderbilt by 16, and they barely beat SEC #13 Georgia.

Does the Kansas win and close loss to Nevada do enough for the Sun Devils?  Their NET rating is 72, and their strength of schedule is 66.  In their favor, Arizona State has a winning record away from Tempe.

Verdict: Sorry, nothing in the inbox but some ads for hotels near Madison Square Garden in late March that you probably won’t need.

Baylor

The Bears lost early in the season to some really weak teams in Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but the TSU loss may turn out to be to a future NCAA Tournament team.  At 7-4 in the Big 12 with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and TCU, plus a sweep of Oklahoma, Baylor is on the inside as of now.  We project Baylor to finish 10-8 in the league, and with this league’s strength, Coach Scott Drew can sleep peacefully when his team is eventually ousted in the Big 12 Tournament.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and does not have to make travel arrangements to Dayton.

 

Belmont

Every year, Coach Rick Byrd has his Bruins among consideration for an NCAA Tournament bid, and this year is no different.  Belmont won at UCLA and Murray State, and they swept rival Lipscomb, who is in the top 30 and also in discussion for a potential at-large bid.  Among their losses is to Purdue in West Lafayette, but also among the losses are two to Jacksonville State.

We project Belmont to win out in the regular season to enter the OVC Tournament at 16-2 in the conference and 24-4 overall.  The Bruins will be the mild favorite to win the automatic bid, but Murray State, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville State will have shots as well.  If Belmont lost to Murray in the Championship Game and finished 26-5, the Bruins would have to be part of the at-large discussion.

Verdict: The Bruins need to win the automatic bid and then become a very game 12-seed.  Too many Bubble teams have to fold for Belmont to rise up and secure an at-large bid.  We believe as an automatic bid-winner and #12 seed, the Bruins are equipped with the talent and coaching to win their first tournament game after some near misses.

 

Butler

This Bulldogs team is not in the class with some of their recent NCAA Tournament teams.  A lone Quadrant 1 win came in a neutral contest with Florida, a team which they played a second time a month later and lost by close to 40 points.

The next most impressive victory is a home win over Ole Miss.  Butler’s NET rating of 53 is on the in-out line, but in their favor is a #25 strength of schedule

Verdict: We hear Dayton is lovely in March.  Even if it snows several inches, you will be very happy you got to visit Southwestern Ohio.  It’s an easy 2 hour drive.

 

Central Florida

The Golden Knights beat Alabama and Temple, and they lost to Houston.  UCF should get to 10 wins in the American Athletic Conference, but the Knights need to pull off one big win to solidify their at-large standing against their peers.  UCF will get that chance with games remaining with Cincinnati and Houston.  A sweep of South Florida might also be impressive enough to push them over the top.

Verdict: Hanging on to a First Four bid for now

 

Clemson

The Tigers don’t have many great wins on their schedule.  Their recent upset of Virginia Tech and an earlier win over Lipscomb are the only Quadrant 1 victories.  In their favor, they are 11-0 against Q3 and Q4 combined, so their losses have been to good or great teams.

We project CU to go 8-10 in ACC play, which in most years gets an ACC team into the field, whether it is deserved or not.  Clemson might need one more upset to complete their resume-building.  They certainly need to hold serve against the teams beneath them in the league.  A win tonight at Miami would be mighty.  We think that a win at home over Florida State, North Carolina, or Syracuse would give them all the juice they need.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and probably not one to Dayton

 

Creighton

The Big East is top heavy with two superior teams and a half dozen good but not great teams.  At 4-7 in league play, the Blue Jays have a lot of work left to do to get onto the upper half of the Bubble.

The one thing keeping Creighton in the discussion currently is the fact that they have played 12 Quadrant 1 games so far and have a top 15 strength of schedule.  However, they are only 2-10 in those games.

Creighton’s next four games are must-win games.  The Blue Jays have to take care of Xavier tonight in Cincinnati and then beat Seton Hall, DePaul, and Georgetown to improve to 8-7 when they travel to Marquette in March.  A 6-1 finish from here would put CU at 10-8 in the league and 19-12 overall, where an opening round win in the Big East Tournament would give the Blue Jays a strong chance to get in.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if they meet the parameters set above.  As of today, we’d say their invitation would be to host a game in the NIT.

 

Davidson

Bob McKillop is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball.  While Davidson has an exceptional history of greatness thanks to what legendary coach Lefty Driesell did 50 years ago, those were different times.  Driesell recruited four or five players as good as Stephen Curry, and he brought Davidson to the top five of the rankings in 1964, 1965, 1968, and 1969.  McKillop inherited a mess when he took over this program that was coming off a 24-loss season plus the transfer of their one good player.  He’s now led the Wildcats for 30 seasons!

Of course, none of this means anything to the Selection Committee.  Davidson’s resume is iffy at this point, and without an automatic bid, it looks like a slim possibility.  Their only quality win to date is a home game victory over conference co-contender Virginia Commonwealth.  This is their only win against a top 100 team, and it came at home.  Unless they face VCU in the Conference Tournament, they will face just one other top 100 team the rest of the way.  The stars just don’t align for the Wildcats this year.

Verdict: They better win the automatic bid or plan on playing in the NIT, CBI, or CIT

 

Florida

Coach Michael White is underachieving in Gainesville, and, following in the footsteps of Billy Donovan, could find his seat heating up quickly if the Gators miss out on this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Florida’s schedule is the only reason why at 4-6 in the SEC and 12-11 overall that they are still in consideration as an at-large team.  The Gators are looking at 8-10 in the league and 16-15 overall.  With that record, they will have to win at least three SEC Tournament games to even be in the final discussion.

Verdict: One of the biggest disappointments of the season does not receive an NCAA bid and may not receive an NIT bid either

 

Hofstra

Make no bones about it, Hofstra is not a real at-large candidate.  However, we wanted to list the Pride here to show you their resume.  At 21-4, the Pride has no Q1 or Q2 wins.  They are 16-0 against Q4, and their strength of schedule ranks 225.  We wanted to show them to you so you can compare them with the other Mid-major teams on this list.  We could have also shown you UC-Irvine, a team in a similar boat with Hofstra, while Wofford, UNC Greensboro, Belmont, and Lipscomb have some tiny at-large hopes.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if it is automatic

 

Indiana

This was supposed to be a much better year in Hoosierland, and like his brother Sean, Archie Miller has come under fire.  IU was supposed to contend with the Michigan schools and Purdue for the Big Ten title.  Instead, the Hoosiers find themselves mired in a tenth place tie in the Big Ten at 4-9/13-11.

Indiana has the bare minimum criteria to squeak in as a fortunate bubble team.  Their NET rating is just under 50, and most power league teams in the top 50 get into the field.  Their strength of schedule is 37, and this is okay for any major conference team on the bubble.  Their efficiency rating is also okay at 45, not great but adequate enough for a Big Ten team.

With 12 Quadrant 1 games and wins in four of those contests, the Hoosiers have proven they can compete at the top of the game.  Of their seven remaining games, five are against tough opponents, and Indiana needs to win two of those five games and four overall to enter the Big Ten Tournament not needing to win three games to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid.

Verdict: At the present time, we have them as the #68 team in the field, and they would be slotted to go to Dayton, where they might have to play Butler. What a rivalry game played close enough for the fans to make the commute by car!

 

Lipscomb

The Atlantic Sun Conference is mid-major at best and borders on low-major status, but Florida Gulf Coast proved this league has the ability to send teams to the Sweet 16.

Lipscomb made its first NCAA Tournament appearance last year and scared North Carolina for a half.  This Bisons team is better than last year, and the former NAIA superpower might be talented enough to replicate what FGCU did earlier in the decade.

Lipscomb has played five Q1 games, all on the road and won twice, once against TCU.  They have no bad losses, going 14-0 against Q3 & Q4.  Among their losses is a four-pointer at Louisville.

If Lipscomb beats Liberty tonight in Nashville to complete the season sweep, they will almost assuredly win out to finish 16-0/25-4 before hosting all their conference tournament games.  It would take a lot to not be the automatic qualifier, but in the event they lost to Liberty in the finals, they would be 27-5 with a lot of positives on their resume.

Verdict: The Bisons are a very likely automatic qualifier, but if they were 27-5, it would take a lot of statistics-bending to exclude them from the at-large pool.  However, we have faith that the Selection Committee would find ways to ship Lipscomb to the NIT in favor of the ninth place team in the ACC or 10th place team in the Big Ten or even the fifth best Big East team, or even TCU who lost at home to this Lipscomb team.

 

Minnesota

Richard Pitino, Saul Phillips, Murray Bartow, and Bryce Drew know what it is like to have fathers that enjoyed long, successful careers in college basketball.  They also know what it is like to have their team’s fanatics wishing that those great coaches had created daughters rather than sons.  Pitino is on very thin ice in Minneapolis, and the Gophers must make the Big Dance if Pitino is to stay employed in the Cities in 2020.

The Gophers are in 8th place in the Big Ten with a 16-8 record overall.  This is just enough to meet the minimum for a Big Ten team.  Their NET rating is 59, which is right on the line for average lowest rating that gets in.  Three Quad 1 wins and a 5-6 record away from home gives the Gophers a decent shot at making the field.

Minnesota’s closing schedule could cinch their bid or kill their chances.  Their more winnable games are on the road, and the tougher opponents must come to Minneapolis.  Tonight’s game at Nebraska could be a bell-weather contest.  A loss might open the door for another bubble team to step up and pass the Gophers.

Verdict: For now, we believe the Selection Committee would send the Gophers an Invitation and even allow them to avoid the First Four.  However, a 3-4 finish to give UM a 9-11 mark in the league and 19-12 overall might put Minny on the wrong side of the Bubble if they lost their first Big Ten Tournament game.  Pitino loses his job if UM misses the Dance.

 

New Mexico St.

New Mexico State is not getting an at-large bid, even if the Aggies win out until the WAC Championship Game and then lose to Grand Canyon or Cal St. Bakersfield by one point in overtime.

Let’s look at their resume.  They lost at Kansas by three points, and that was their only Q1 game.  Even had they beaten Kansas by three, their resume is too thin with just one Q1 game.

NMSU is just one spot behind Minnesota in the NET Ratings, and the Aggies are 9-3 away from Las Cruces.  However, their strength of schedule rates at number 134, and we learned from the top-16 seed reveal last week just how much this year’s Committee valued strength of schedule.

Verdict: No At-large chance, but we believe this team could be 30-4 when they win the WAC’s automatic bid.  Coach Chris Jans has overcome a lot of adversity to resurrect his career.  NMSU will be a dangerous 12 or 13 seed.

 

North Carolina St.

Kevin Keatts is one of our favorite basketball coaches.  We are in high regard of his ability to evaluate talent and alter his schemes to best exploit opponent weaknesses and utilize his talent.  Even that embarrassing oops loss to Virginia Tech does not alter our opinion.  Keatts is a Final Four coach of the future, be it here or some place else.

This Wolf Pack team is not going to advance very far in the NCAA Tournament, but they will almost definitely receive a bid based on their results so far.

When an ACC team has a top 40 NET rating, they are going dancing.  NCSU is presently #39.  The Wolf Pack currently has a winning record away from Raleigh.

All is not peachy though with their resume.  Their Strength of Schedule is an unheard of for an ACC team #194, because they played six of the bottom 34 teams in Division 1, including the two weakest of all.  State only has one Q1 win all year, a home victory over Auburn which looks less impressive now than it did then.

The Pack can easily finish the regular season on a 5-2 sprint to a 10-8 regular season conference record, which gets an ACC team an at-large bid better than 95% of the time.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation as one of the last teams in that do not play in the First Four

 

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes really should not be in this discussion.  The only reason why we include them here is that they still need to avoid a total collapse.  At 6-6/16-7, if OSU goes 3-5 down the stretch, they will get into the field.

Road wins over Cincinnati, Indiana, and Creighton are impressive enough already, but we see the Buckeyes finishing no worse than 4-4 and possibly 5-3 to make their selection quite easy.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Oklahoma

Can a team that is 3-9 in their conference really be in the hunt for an at-large bid?  Oklahoma certainly hopes so, and thanks to the Big 12’s overall concentration of power, the Sooners do have a legitimate chance to get into the Field of 68 with a conference mark no better than 7-11.

In OU’s favor is a schedule that faced no Q4 teams and just seven Q3 teams.  Oklahoma went 7-0 in those games.  Their overall strength of schedule is #7, which means that a winning overall record is going to be enough to give them a chance.

Oklahoma has six games remaining prior to the league tourney, and if they go 3-3 with one of those wins coming against Kansas, and then they win their first Big 12 Tournament game, the Sooners will be in good enough shape to expect great things on March 17.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they go 3-3 plus one Big 12 Tournament win

 

Ole Miss

Ole Miss is 16-7, and all seven of their losses came to Q1 teams!  They have three Q1 wins, including one on the road against Mississippi State.

A 35 NET rating and 39 Efficiency rating makes their resume complete.  At this point, Ole Miss is competing for a 7 or 8 seed and not needing to worry about missing out on the Dance, unless they totally collapse.  Coach Kermit Davis has done an incredible job in his first year in Oxford.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels have received an at-large bid in the past, but they also beat Gonzaga in the past.  This year, it appears out of reach, and a 11-5/22-12 final record (the best possible without beating Gonzaga, is most likely to fall short of the minimum needed criteria.

Verdict: SMC is going to have to beat Gonzaga to have any chance, and most likely, that win will have to come in the finals of the WCC Tournament, which would then give the Gaels the automatic bid and Gonzaga an at-large bid at the expense of another team on this list.

 

San Francisco

At one time earlier this year, USF looked like a potential at-large team.  A 13-point loss at home to Gonzaga followed by losses at Saint Mary’s and San Diego, basically necessitated winning at Gonzaga to have a real chance.  The Zags ran the Dons off the floor, ending USF’s at-large possibilities.

Verdict: No bid unless USF pulls off the upset and wins the West Coast Tournament Championship.  We cannot see USF beating Gonzaga, but if the Dons earn the #2 or #3 seed in the conference tournament, while BYU earns the #4 seed, then the Dons could hope that the Cougars upset Gonzaga, giving them a chance to knock off BYU for the automatic bid.

 

Seton Hall

Seton Hall is in a similar boat to Butler and Creighton in the up and down Big East race.  The Pirates have some pluses and some minuses in their quest to get a bid.

On the plus side are wins over Kentucky and Maryland, but countering those two great Q1 victories are losses at home to St. Louis and DePaul.  Three of their Q1 losses were by five points or less, and they have only played seven games against Q3 & Q4 teams.

With a 69 NET Rating, the Pirates need to improve their standing in the last five weeks.  The schedule is quite tough with the top two Big East teams (Villanova and Marquette) still on the schedule, and the Hall has road games with Creighton, St. John’s, and Georgetown.  We expect SHU to enter the Big East Tournament at 7-11/16-14, and the Big East is not strong enough for a team with fewer than 10 conference wins or nine with a couple of conference tournament wins to get in.

Verdict: Looks like they will be disappointed on Selection Sunday without an upset of Marquette or Villanova and a 9-9 Big East record

 

St. John’s

St. John’s is only a half-game in front of Seton Hall, but their resume might as well be 20 games ahead.  The Red Storm have played a much tougher schedule this year, and schedule strength appears to be very important, just behind NET Ratings, with the Committee.  Sweeps of Marquette and Creighton with their worst loss coming against DePaul gives SJU a strong shot at making the field.  Add a 7-4 record away from home, and the Red Storm would have to collapse to miss out this year.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation, probably an 8 or 9 seed

 

TCU

Like Ole Miss, all of TCU’s losses have come to Quadrant 1 teams.  They are 16-0 against all others.  A 33 NET rating and 20 Strength of Schedule Rating puts the Horned Frogs well up into the good graces of the Selection Committee.

TCU should be no worse than 9-9 in the Big 12, and when a league is as strong up and down as this one, the 9-9 team always gets into the field.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Temple

When a top 10 team has just one loss all year, the team that beat them gets added oomph in their resume.  Temple gave Houston their only loss so far this year.  The Owls lost their other five Q1 games to date.

Temple’s NET Rating is 55, which puts them on the Bubble for sure.  Their Strength of Schedule is 56, which is at the bottom of the allowed SOS for an at-large team.  An 8-5 record away from home (7-4 away from the City of Brotherly Love) makes their criteria smack dab in the hunt as one of the final teams in our highest teams out.

Temple can go 5-2 the rest of the regular season to finish at 12-6 in the league.  With a win in the AAC Tournament, that would give the Owls at least 23 wins, and that would leave them exactly where they are now–in the middle of the discussion between teams number 67 and 70.  A win at South Florida this weekend would really help.

 

Texas

The Longhorns have the worst record of teams that appear to be in good shape with the Selection Committee.  At 6-6/14-11, UT still has work to do just to guarantee a plus .500 record.  They have played the third toughest schedule in the nation, and they own wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.

Add a 34 NET Rating and 28 Efficiency Rating, and Texas only needs to get enough wins down the stretch to guarantee an at-large bid.  A 9-9 Big 12 record does the trick.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Toledo

The PiRate Ratings are big fans of the Mid-Major conferences that have been around for decades, and the MAC is one of those leagues.  Toledo was really good back in the late 1960’s when Steve Mix played for the Rockets prior to starting in the NBA.  Success has been limited for Toledo on the hardwoods since then.

This Toledo team has no chance of securing an at-large bid, and with a 30-point loss to Buffalo, it is hard to see them getting revenge in the championship game of the MAC Tournament.  Still, we include them in this write-up, because the MAC Tournament is always competitive, and the top-seeded team loses in it more than the average conference.

Toledo is one of three or four teams that could upset Buffalo, although this year’s Buffalo team has all the tools to sweep the regular season and conference tournament.  However, if Buffalo loses, then obviously another team must win the automatic bid, while Buffalo bursts a Bubble for another team as a certain at-large team.

A 9-3 record away from home makes this a dangerous team in Cleveland.  Toledo will waltz into Cleveland as the number one seed from the West Division, so Buffalo will have to beat two others before the Rockets will have to glare at the Bulls in a possible title game.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only bid winning automatic bid, but Buffalo still gets in if they lose the MAC Tournament

 

UNC Greensboro

This is a team no favorite from a power conference will want to see in a potential Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.  UNCG is a tough matchup, and the Spartans have a unique style that is hard to prepare for on a couple day’s notice.

With a 46 NET Rating, UNCG is worthy of an at-large bid if they were to win out all the way to the Socon Championship Game and lose a close one to Wofford.  The Spartans are 10-2 away from Greensboro, but their issue is a schedule that is rated 188 (which is still ahead of North Carolina State).

If UNCG is to earn enough respect to be in the at-large pool, the Spartans must win their two big games this week.  They play at Furman tonight, and then meet Wofford in Spartanburg Saturday.  If UNCG wins out but loses in the SoCon Championship Game, they will be 30-4 and in the mix for one of the last four bids.

 

Utah St.

With a 38 NET Rating and 43 Efficiency Rating, Utah State should be in the almost safe range for an at-large bid, but the Aggies are still on the outside looking in thanks to a strength of schedule rated 115.  Utah State has seven regular season games left, and if they win out, they will enter the MWC Tournament at 15-3/25-6.  Most importantly, if they win out, it will mean the Aggies beat Nevada.  The boys from Reno come to Logan on March 2.  USU almost has to win that game to have any serious at-large chances, but they also have a chance to win the automatic bid in the tough Mountain West.  Nevada won the MWC last year and failed to make the tournament title game as the number one seed, so history could repeat.

Verdict: We believe the Aggies deserve an at-large bid as of today, and for now we will give the Selection Committee the benefit of the doubt in realizing that they deserve to be in

 

Virginia Commonwealth

At the current time, we actually have VCU as the likely automatic bid winner from the Atlantic 10, ahead of Davidson, but we included the Rams here to show you how close they are to qualifying as an at-large team.

VCU has a 43 NET Rating, 54 Strength of Schedule, and 46 Efficiency Rating.  This is already better than some of the other teams thought to be among the last four in and first four out.  They have a 6-5 record away from home and won at Texas.  They suffered narrow losses to Virginia and St. John’s.

We project VCU to finish 15-3 in the A-10 and 24-7 overall in the regular season.  If they lose in the conference tournament and finish 26-8, the Rams will be in the mix for an at-large bid.

Verdict: We believe VCU has the best chance of winning the A-10 Tournament and the automatic bid, but if they lose in the Championship Game, the Rams still have a chance depending on how many Power Conferences have major upsets or if teams like Buffalo and Nevada lose in their conference tournaments

Wofford

If we told you that an anonymous team was ranked 28 in the NET Ratings with the number 30 Efficiency Rating, and with a 20-point road win at the number four team in the SEC, and with four losses all year to North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma, you might reply that Auburn or Texas Tech will obviously make the NCAA Tournament, guessing from the information given that one of these two teams must be that anonymous team.

Mention Wofford to 99% of the general college basketball fandom public, and you are very likely to hear such fanatic tell you that they will be another one of those first round 25-point losers to some Big Ten team.

Wofford and UNC Greensboro both probably belong in the NCAA Tourmament.  Unfortunately, one of these two are likely to be team number 69, 70, 71, or 72.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they earn the automatic bid

 

Yale

There has never been an at-large Ivy League team, and there isn’t going to be one this year, even if Yale is probably better than a couple of teams seriously on the Bubble.

The Bulldogs’ best win is a neutral court victory over Miami of Florida.  Their resume won’t get them an at-large bid.  We project the Bulldogs to go 12-2 in the Ivy League to earn the top seed in the four-team tournament.  We also project Yale to win the Tournament to finish 24-5, where they will earn no better than a 13 seed and possible a 14 seed.  At 13, there are multiple potential 4 seeds that could be uspet by this Yale team.

 

January 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings–College Football Final 2018-19

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:19 am

Congratulations go to the Clemson Tigers for their outstanding performance last night in their four touchdown victory over Alabama.  With a quarterback that will be back for at least two more seasons, the Tigers must be considered the early favorite to repeat as champions next year and maybe the year after as well.  In the previous decade, the Indianapolis Colts arranged to have their worst ever season at the right time.  The phrase, “Let’s suck for Luck,” was in vogue in the Sycamore State, as the Colts won the rights to the first pick in the NFL Draft.  The new phrase for 2021 might be, “Be Clever and suck for Trevor,” because Trevor Lawrence looks like he could be another all-time NFL great.

Alabama fans know that their team will be back.  When your coach continually recruits the top class or one of the top five year after year, and he employs more coaches by calling them advisers, Alabama, Inc. will continue to return heavy profits.  Of course, Nick Saban will be offered the chance to return to the NFL, but personally we cannot see Saban leaving Alabama off a game like this.  He wants a 15-0 season with 15 double digit wins, and then we can retire and run his Mercedes-Benz Dealership hands-on by recruiting car buyers.

Many of you reading this today might not realize that this was not Alabama’s worst ever showing in a bowl game being played for the National Championship.  There was a worse outcome, and I watched it 47 years ago in the Orange Bowl.

#1 Nebraska, certainly one of the five best college teams ever, thoroughly destroyed #2 Alabama that year 38-6, and the score could have been much worse.  The Cornhuskers scored a touchdown early in the first quarter on a sustained drive, mixing up power runs, option runs, and play-action passes from their wing-I offense and took a quick 7-0 lead.  Alabama’s potent wishbone offense was greatly slowed by Nebraska’s 5-2 defense that closely resembled the All Big 8 Team.

In the last minute of the first quarter, the game was basically decided.  Alabama punted and chose to punt the ball to All-American Johnny Rodgers.  The future Heisman Trophy winner had broken the hearts of Oklahoma with a long punt return that led the Cornhuskers to victory over the Sooners on Thanksgiving Day in the “Game of the Century.”  On this night, Rodgers fielded the punt on the second bounce at his own 23 yard line.  He quickly scampered to his right to avoid two Alabama defenders, and then he faked two more almost out of their shoes before picking up a wall of blockers down the right sideline.  A few seconds later, Nebraska had a two touchdown lead as the first quarter expired.  Two more second quarter touchdowns made it 28-0 at the half, and it was apparent that the number two and number three teams were Big Eight foes Oklahoma and Colorado.  Coach Bob Devaney played his reserves for most of the second half, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 pasting of the 11-0 Crimson Tide.  Coach Bear Bryant called this Nebraska team the greatest of all time, and he admitted that the Cornhuskers basically toyed with his team.

Here are the Final PiRate Ratings for the 2018-19 season

# Team
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio St.
4 Notre Dame
5 Georgia
6 Oklahoma
7 LSU
8 Michigan
9 Florida
10 Texas A&M
11 Washington
12 Auburn
13 Iowa
14 Washington St.
15 Kentucky
16 Texas
17 Mississippi St.
18 Syracuse
19 Penn St.
20 Stanford
21 Fresno St.
22 Missouri
23 Utah St.
24 West Virginia
25 Utah
26 Central Florida
27 Army
28 Boise St.
29 Northwestern
30 N. Carolina St.
31 Miami
32 S. Carolina
33 Wisconsin
34 Oregon
35 Oklahoma St.
36 Cincinnati
37 Duke
38 Michigan St.
39 Iowa State
40 Virginia
41 Boston College
42 Georgia Tech
43 Pittsburgh
44 T C U
45 Arizona St.
46 Ohio U
47 Appalachian St.
48 Minnesota
49 U A B
50 Wake Forest
51 Purdue
52 California
53 Baylor
54 Texas Tech
55 U S C
56 Vanderbilt
57 Troy
58 BYU
59 Temple
60 Nebraska
61 Kansas St.
62 Florida St.
63 Marshall
64 Ole Miss
65 Indiana
66 Maryland
67 Memphis
68 Virginia Tech
69 Tennessee
70 Buffalo
71 Arizona
72 Georgia Southern
73 Houston
74 Toledo
75 Northern Illinois
76 Nevada
77 Florida Int’l.
78 Tulane
79 Wyoming
80 U C L A
81 N. Texas
82 Colorado
83 Middle Tennessee
84 Miami (O)
85 San Diego St.
86 Eastern Michigan
87 Louisiana Tech
88 Arkansas St.
89 Air Force
90 Florida Atlantic
91 South Florida
92 SMU
93 Western Michigan
94 N. Carolina
95 Kansas
96 Arkansas
97 Navy
98 Southern Miss.
99 Rutgers
100 Illinois
101 UL-Monroe
102 Akron
103 Tulsa
104 Hawaii
105 W. Kentucky
106 Louisiana
107 Colorado St.
108 U N L V
109 Oregon St.
110 Louisville
111 Charlotte
112 New Mexico
113 East Carolina
114 Massachusetts
115 Bowling Green
116 Old Dominion
117 Liberty
118 San Jose St.
119 Ball St.
120 Central Michigan
121 Kent St.
122 Coastal Carolina
123 Georgia St.
124 U T S A
125 South Alabama
126 Texas State
127 N. Mexico St.
128 Rice
129 Connecticut
130 UTEP

Coming Later Today–The PiRate Ratings for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.  

 

 

 

 

December 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 29- January 1 Bowls and NFL Week 17

This is a very busy day here on the PiRate ship, as we will debut our 2018-19 version of PiRate Ratings Basketball later today.

The Land Sharps have been coming down to Earth since their blistering hot November, as December has not been kind to our five friends.  At the same time, the PiRate Ratings picks have continued to win in December, especially the Bowl game Money Lines, where we have experimented with playing the underdog in every game and finding the most favorable underdog Money Line odds.  With underdogs winning all three games on Thursday, the Return on Investment for this system to date is now 64.16%!  This includes a push in the Boston College and Boise State game that was cancelled due to severe lightning.

This Week’s Land Sharp Picks

Cal Gal Tiffany

Nevada -1 vs. Arkansas St.

Central Florida +8 vs. LSU

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Stewed Meat

Mississippi St. -7 vs. Auburn

Penn St. -6 vs. Kentucky

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Dean 615

Florida +6 vs. Michigan

Notre Dame +12.5 vs. Clemson

Oklahoma +15 vs. Alabama

 

Buckeye Michelle

Oklahoma St. +9 vs. Missouri

Ohio State – 6.5 vs. Washington

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Friday Dog 13

Auburn -3 vs. Purdue

Michigan -5.5 vs. Florida

Clemson -12 vs. Notre Dame

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

10-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston Jacksonville 17 Jacksonville
Green Bay Detroit 19 Detroit
New England N.Y. Jets 24.5 N.Y. Jets
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Chicago 14.5 Chicago
Kansas City Oakland 24.5 Oakland
Philadelphia Washington 17.5 Washington
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
L.A. Rams San Francisco 0.5 L.A.Rams
L.A. Chargers Denver 17 Denver
Tennessee Indianapolis 7 Indianapolis
Team Team Total Pick
Houston Jacksonville 50 UNDER
Green Bay Detroit 34.5 OVER
Atlanta Tampa Bay 61.5 UNDER
Team Team Total Pick
New England N.Y. Jets 35 OVER
Chicago Minnesota 30 OVER
Oakland Kansas City 42.5 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Philadelphia Washington 32 OVER
L.A.Rams San Francisco 38.5 OVER
L.A. Chargers Denver 31.5 OVER
13-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
New Orleans Carolina 21.5 Carolina
Miami Buffalo 8 Buffalo
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 3 Pittsburgh
Baltimore Cleveland 18.5 Cleveland
Team Team Total Pick
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 58.5 UNDER
Cleveland Baltimore 27.5 OVER
Arizona Seattle 25.5 OVER
Indianapolis Tennessee 30.5 OVER
Favorite Underdog Moneyline Pick
Michigan Florida +210 Florida
South Carolina Virginia +185 Virginia
Nevada Arkansas St. +105 Arkansas St.
Clemson Notre Dame +380 Notre Dame
Alabama Oklahoma +490 Oklahoma
Cincinnati Virginia Tech +195 Virginia Tech
Stanford Pittsburgh +195 Pittsburgh
Oregon Michigan St. +120 Michigan St.
Missouri Oklahoma St. +315 Oklahoma St.
Utah Northwestern +255 Northwestern
Texas A&M North Carolina St. +248 North Carolina St.
Mississippi St. Iowa +245 Iowa
LSU Central Florida +260 Central Florida
Penn St. Kentucky +220 Kentucky
Ohio St. Washington +220 Washington
Georgia Texas +410 Texas

 

Remember: Neither the Land Sharps or the PiRates wager real money on the selections presented here at this site.  We recommend you do the same.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back at this site Friday afternoon for our first college basketball report of the season, featuring our top 25, picks of games involving teams in power conferences, and a little something else.

 

December 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Bowls & Playoffs

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:58 am

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday December 15
New Mexico Bowl 2:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Utah St. North Texas 11.6 10.2 12.4
Cure Bowl 2:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Tulane Louisiana 9.3 7.5 7.3
Las Vegas Bowl 3:30 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Fresno St. Arizona St. 2.8 3.7 3.4
Camellia Bowl 5:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern Eastern Michigan -4.7 -4.2 -4.3
New Orleans Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Appalachian St. Middle Tennessee -0.6 -0.7 -0.2
 

 

Tuesday December 18
Boca Raton Bowl 7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
UAB Northern Illinois -0.6 0.7 -0.2
 

 

Wednesday December 19
Frisco Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
San Diego St. Ohio U -8.7 -9.8 -9.4
 

 

Thursday December 20
Gasparilla Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
South Florida Marshall -1.9 -2.8 -3.0
 

 

Friday December 21
Bahamas Bowl 12:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Toledo Florida Int’l. 9.8 7.9 9.3
Idaho Potato Bowl 4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan BYU -11.1 -10.0 -11.2
 

 

Saturday December 22 12:00 PM on ESPN
Birmingham Bowl
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Memphis Wake Forest -2.3 0.7 0.3
Armed Forces Bowl 3:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Army -1.3 -1.5 -1.2
Dollar General Bowl 7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Troy 5.6 5.8 5.1
Hawaii Bowl 10:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Hawaii Louisiana Tech -3.3 -3.6 -4.0
 

 

Wednesday December 26
First Responder Bowl 1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. Boston College -0.3 1.7 0.5
Quick Lane Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Minnesota Georgia Tech -11.4 -11.6 -11.4
Cheez-it Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
TCU California 0.4 1.2 -0.8
 

 

Thursday December 27 1:30 PM on ESPN
Independence Bowl
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Duke Temple 6.4 4.1 5.0
Pinstripe Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Wisconsin Miami (Fla.) -6.5 -7.5 -7.0
Texas Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Baylor Vanderbilt -0.4 -2.1 -1.1
 

 

Friday December 28
Music City Bowl 1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Auburn Purdue 6.8 7.2 8.4
Camping World Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse West Virginia 1.0 0.8 1.2
Arizona Bowl 5:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Nevada Arkansas St. 3.6 2.2 1.6
Alamo Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Washington St. -3.3 -3.9 -3.6
 

 

Saturday December 29
Peach Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Florida Michigan -9.7 -9.9 -9.6
Belk Bowl 12:00 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
South Carolina Virginia 5.9 4.8 6.6
Cotton Bowl 4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Clemson Notre Dame 12.6 12.9 14.3
Orange Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Alabama Oklahoma 19.2 18.7 20.8
 

 

Monday December 31
Redbox Bowl 3:00 PM on Fox
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Oregon Michigan St. -0.8 1.0 0.4
Military Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Tech Cincinnati 1.9 -0.2 1.0
Sun Bowl 2:00 PM on CBS
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Stanford Pittsburgh 5.3 4.2 6.1
Liberty Bowl 3:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Missouri Oklahoma St. 12.0 12.1 13.1
Holiday Bowl 7:00 PM on FS1
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Utah Northwestern 6.0 6.1 6.7
Gator Bowl 7:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Texas A&M -2.9 -2.7 -4.0
 

 

Tuesday January 1
Outback Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN2
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa Mississippi St. -7.5 -7.8 -9.3
Citrus Bowl 1:00 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Kentucky Penn St. -6.7 -5.6 -6.5
Fiesta Bowl 1:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
LSU Central Florida 2.9 1.5 3.0
Rose Bowl 5:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio St. Washington 6.9 7.1 6.6
Sugar Bowl 8:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Texas 14.9 14.3 17.1
 

 

Monday January 7
National Championship Game 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Bama or Okla. Clem or N. Dame

For those that need to know–these ratings include the list of star players that are sitting out their bowl so as not to risk injury prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.  For example, Will Grier will not play for West Virginia, and that is enough to switch the Mountaineers from favorite to underdog.  This includes a list through Saturday, December 9.

NOTE:  The PiRate Ratings will commence with college basketball coverage as soon as all the major conference teams have played their tenth game.  Our rating is meaningless until every team has played 10 games.

Once again, we have combined all three of our sub-ratings into one more accurate rating.  We will issue spreads on weekend games through the conference tournaments and then spreads on the conference tournament games.

Additionally, starting in Mid-January, we will see the return of our Bracketology Gurus, who in two years of existence have gotten all 68 teams in the tournament one year and 67 of the 68 teams in the other.  We hand-picked 12 not-so-angry men that love college basketball and devote about the same amount of time in analyzing college basketball data as we analyze Major League Baseball.

 

 

December 5, 2018

What If… An NCAA Playoffs With No Committee Choices

Four teams are happy.  At least three teams are sad and feel slighted.  Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been invited to the playoffs.  Ohio State and Georgia were jilted.

There could be an argument for Oklahoma and Notre Dame over Ohio State and Georgia.  On the other hand, the folks that know best, those sharps in Nevada, would tell you that Georgia is the third best team in the nation.  Many computers will tell you that on December 29, 2018, Ohio State would be a better team than Oklahoma.

Imagine if specially appointed committees chose other things for the rest of us.  How would you like some insider former politicians explaining to you why Candidate A will be your President instead of Candidate B, even though all the political experts say that Candidate B would be the better Chief Excutive?

What is a special committee of psychologists chose who you will marry based on their criteria.  You may be in love with Michelle, but they may choose Kelly for you because she can balance a checkbook and you cannot?

What if the NFL had to choose just four teams for the playoffs.  This year, there are five really good teams in the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, and Texans.  Maybe the Bears and Chargers are also among the four best.  Do you want a 12-4 division winner not making the NFL Playoffs?

Of course you don’t.  And, the fandom of college football doesn’t buy for a minute that the Selection Committee knows what it’s doing.  Let’s see any of them pick games against the spread.  If they are true experts, then they will put up results that make Billy Walters look like an amateur.

The four team playoff did nothing to solve the problems of the two-team BCS National Championship Game it replaced.  In fact, this year, you could make an excellent argument that just putting Alabama against Clemson would be a better option than picking four out of six or seven deserving teams.

Any legitimate FBS Playoffs must allow every FBS team a chance to play their way into said playoffs.  There are 130 FBS teams.  There needs to be no more than 64 top level teams and preferably 32, but let’s not even talk about separating the Power 5 from the Group of 5.  Let’s talk about honest realignment into 7 conferences of 16 teams  and 1 conference of 18 teams.  In an even better world, two FBS teams would drop down to FCS, leaving 128 teams.

Divide each conference into two divisions.  Every team within a division will play each other during the regular season plus three teams in the other division.  In the 18-team conference, there will be just two teams against the other division.  The rhyme and reason to which schools a team in the other division would play would be made by the league with a rotating schedule so that a different three teams would be played every year, possibly using the NFL’s strategy of having the prior first place team in one division playing the prior first place team in the other division and so on down to the prior last place teams playing each other.

At the end of the season, the top team in each division of each conference would then make the 16-team playoff.  In the first round, the division winners of each conference would play to determine the conference champion.  This would leave eight teams for eight playoff spots.

These conference championship games could be played on neutral sites like the current Power Five Conference Championship Games, or on the home field of the team with the better conference record with set tiebreakers to determine the higher seed if there is a tie.

With the number down to eight, the next round could be played on home fields of the higher seeds as determined by criteria that all teams and all fans will know, just like home field is determined in the NFL.  At no time will a committee of so-called experts determine who is in these playoffs and who will be the home team.

After this second round of the playoffs, the final four can then be played like it is today.

This would give every team a chance to play for the national title, just like all 350 Division 1 basketball teams have a chance.  If you think this isn’t fair to Alabama or Clemson to have to play more games to become national champion, then you must absolutely hate March Madness when Sister Jean and her Loyola Ramblers or Butler or Wichita State can make a run to the Final Four.  You must hate the fact that a Gonzaga can advance from a small program into one of the top 10 in the nation.

If the entire FBS has a chance to win the national title, then all programs will have a chance to do what Gonzaga has done in basketball.

Another bonus could be in scheduling.  Instead of an SEC team like Georgia scheduling Austin Peay and Massachusetts, or Alabama scheduling The Citadel, Arkansas State, and Louisiana (the one in Lafayette and not Baton Rouge), the national schedule makers could schedule Alabama and Oklahoma, or Georgia and Michigan.

What about the FBS vs. FCS games?  Why not give each FBS team two preseason games against FCS teams, where the FBS team pays the FCS team a check just like they do now?  With all the extra billions coming into this new paradigm, the FBS teams could keep these FCS programs solvent without putting a 63-3 pasting on them in a regular season game.

December 2, 2018

Final Bowl Projections +Army-Navy

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Tulane Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. * California
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Appalachian St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Middle Tennessee
Frisco AAC At-Large Memphis [San Diego St.]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] Southern Miss.
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo * Florida Int’l. *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Virginia Tech]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech * Hawaii *
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Purdue
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Georgia Tech [Western Michigan]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Auburn
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Pittsburgh Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington St.
Belk ACC SEC Virginia South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Wake Forest
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) Stanford
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Vanderbilt
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Utah
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Texas A&M
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Fiesta At-large At-large LSU Michigan
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington *
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Oklahoma
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
* Team has already accepted this bid

 

Saturday December 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Army Navy 14.6 13.3 14.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0
2 Clemson 138.9 136.8 139.7 138.5
3 Georgia 128.9 126.7 130.3 128.6
4 Ohio St. 127.1 125.4 127.4 126.6
5 Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5
6 Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2
7 Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1
8 Washington 122.7 120.8 123.3 122.3
9 Oklahoma 121.8 120.6 121.8 121.4
10 Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9
11 Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4
12 L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6
13 Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8
14 West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
15 Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4
16 Utah 116.4 114.9 116.6 116.0
17 Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3
18 Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2
19 Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8
20 Central Florida 114.2 114.7 114.9 114.6
21 Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4
22 Stanford 114.7 112.6 114.9 114.1
23 Texas 114.0 112.4 113.2 113.2
24 N. Carolina St. 113.2 112.4 112.6 112.7
25 S. Carolina 113.1 111.9 113.0 112.7
26 Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6
27 Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2
28 Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1
29 Fresno St. 112.0 111.6 112.2 111.9
30 Iowa State 112.5 110.8 111.9 111.7
31 Boise St. 111.3 111.1 111.6 111.3
32 Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3
33 Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1
34 Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7
35 Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4
36 Northwestern 110.4 108.8 109.9 109.7
37 Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6
38 Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3
39 Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0
40 Pittsburgh 109.4 108.4 108.8 108.9
41 Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5
42 Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2
43 California 108.1 106.0 107.9 107.3
44 U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3
45 Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0
46 Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9
47 Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9
48 Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8
49 Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6
50 T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6
51 Memphis 104.5 105.7 105.3 105.2
52 Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8
53 Virginia Tech 104.6 103.9 104.2 104.2
54 Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2
55 Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0
56 Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4
57 Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3
58 Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1
59 Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9
60 Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3
61 Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2
62 Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7
63 Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6
64 BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4
65 Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3
66 Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9
67 N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0
69 U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0
70 Buffalo 99.0 100.8 100.0 99.9
71 Appalachian St. 98.3 100.1 99.7 99.4
72 Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5
73 Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5
74 Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7
75 Northern Illinois 96.8 97.9 97.3 97.3
76 Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3
77 U A B 96.2 98.6 97.1 97.3
78 Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0
79 Middle Tennessee 95.9 97.8 96.9 96.9
80 N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5
81 Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9
82 Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8
83 Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6
84 Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9
85 Marshall 93.9 96.2 94.6 94.9
86 Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8
87 San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
88 SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7
89 Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1
90 Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4
91 Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3
92 Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4
93 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0
94 South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8
95 Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7
96 Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9
97 Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7
98 Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6
99 Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5
100 Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4
101 Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1
102 UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4
103 Akron 85.8 86.7 85.5 86.0
104 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3
105 Louisiana 83.7 86.0 85.4 85.0
106 Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7
107 U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5
108 Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4
109 Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3
110 Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0
111 New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6
112 Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6
113 East Carolina 81.9 81.9 81.3 81.7
114 Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5
115 Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9
116 Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8
117 Liberty 80.9 80.4 80.9 80.7
118 San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5
119 Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5
120 Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7
121 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3
122 Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8
123 Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1
124 U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0
125 South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1
126 Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7
127 N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8
128 Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6
129 Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.2 114.7 114.9 114.6 8-0 12-0
Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8 7-1 8-4
Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3 6-2 10-2
South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8 3-5 7-5
East Carolina 81.9 81.9 81.3 81.7 1-7 3-9
Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0 0-8 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.5 105.7 105.3 105.2 5-3 8-5
Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3 5-3 8-4
SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7 4-4 5-7
Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 5-3 6-6
Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9 2-6 3-9
Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4 2-6 3-9
AAC Averages 94.7 95.3 94.7 94.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 138.9 136.8 139.7 138.5 8-0 13-0
N. Carolina St. 113.2 112.4 112.6 112.7 5-3 9-3
Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1 6-2 9-3
Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7 4-4 7-5
Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6 3-5 6-6
Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9 3-5 5-7
Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3 0-8 2-10
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2 4-4 7-5
Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6 5-3 7-5
Pittsburgh 109.4 108.4 108.8 108.9 6-2 7-6
Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5 3-5 7-5
Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9 4-4 7-5
Virginia Tech 104.6 103.9 104.2 104.2 4-4 6-6
N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5 1-7 2-9
ACC Averages 109.3 108.1 108.7 108.7
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.8 120.6 121.8 121.4 8-1 12-1
West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6 6-3 8-3
Texas 114.0 112.4 113.2 113.2 7-2 9-4
Iowa State 112.5 110.8 111.9 111.7 6-3 8-4
Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0 3-6 6-6
Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0 3-6 5-7
T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6 4-5 6-6
Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2 3-6 5-7
Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1 4-5 6-6
Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7 1-8 3-9
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.1 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 127.1 125.4 127.4 126.6 8-1 12-1
Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5 8-1 10-2
Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4 6-3 9-3
Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1 5-4 7-5
Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6 3-6 5-7
Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9 2-7 5-7
Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5 0-9 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4 5-4 8-4
Northwestern 110.4 108.8 109.9 109.7 8-1 8-5
Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3 5-4 6-6
Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2 5-4 7-5
Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8 3-6 4-8
Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2 3-6 6-6
Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1 2-7 4-8
Big Ten Averages 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Middle Tennessee 95.9 97.8 96.9 96.9 7-1 8-5
Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9 3-5 5-7
Marshall 93.9 96.2 94.6 94.9 6-2 8-4
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0 6-2 8-4
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3 2-6 3-9
Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0 4-4 5-7
Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8 2-6 4-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 96.2 98.6 97.1 97.3 7-1 10-3
N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5 5-3 9-3
Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7 5-3 7-5
Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6 4-4 6-5
U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0 2-6 3-9
Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6 1-7 2-11
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7 1-7 1-11
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2 x 12-0
Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4 x 9-2
BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4 x 6-6
Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5 x 4-8
Liberty 80.9 80.4 80.9 80.7 x 6-6
N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8 x 3-9
Indep. Averages 94.1 94.3 94.2 94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0 6-2 8-4
Buffalo 99.0 100.8 100.0 99.9 7-1 10-3
Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0 6-2 6-6
Akron 85.8 86.7 85.5 86.0 2-6 4-8
Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9 2-6 3-9
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0 5-3 7-5
Northern Illinois 96.8 97.9 97.3 97.3 6-2 8-5
Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8 5-3 7-5
Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7 5-3 7-5
Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5 3-5 4-8
Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7 0-8 1-11
MAC Averages 90.3 91.7 90.8 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.3 111.1 111.6 111.3 7-1 10-3
Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4 7-1 10-2
Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3 4-4 6-6
Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9 3-5 5-7
Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7 2-6 3-9
New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6 1-7 3-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.0 111.6 112.2 111.9 7-1 11-2
Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8 5-3 7-5
San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7 4-4 7-5
U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5 2-6 4-8
Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6 5-3 8-5
San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5 1-7 1-11
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.7 120.8 123.3 122.3 7-2 10-3
Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3 7-2 10-2
Stanford 114.7 112.6 114.9 114.1 6-3 8-4
Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3 5-4 8-4
California 108.1 106.0 107.9 107.3 4-5 7-5
Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4 1-8 2-10
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.4 114.9 116.6 116.0 6-3 9-4
Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6 5-4 7-5
U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3 4-5 5-7
Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7 4-5 5-7
U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0 3-6 3-9
Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5 2-7 5-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.3 107.5 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.7 130.3 128.6 7-1 11-2
Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9 4-4 8-4
Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8 5-3 9-3
S. Carolina 113.1 111.9 113.0 112.7 4-4 7-5
Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2 5-3 9-3
Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9 3-5 6-6
Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5 2-6 5-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0 8-0 13-0
Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1 4-4 8-4
L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6 5-3 9-3
Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8 3-5 7-5
Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4 5-3 8-4
Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3 1-7 5-7
Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6 0-8 2-10
SEC Averages 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.3 100.1 99.7 99.4 7-1 10-2
Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4 7-1 9-3
Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4 6-2 9-3
Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8 2-6 5-7
Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3 5-3 8-4
UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4 4-4 6-6
Louisiana 83.7 86.0 85.4 85.0 5-3 7-6
South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1 2-6 3-9
Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7 1-7 3-9
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.7
2 B12 109.6 108.1 108.9 108.9
3 ACC 109.3 108.1 108.7 108.7
4 BTEN 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
5 PAC12 107.6 106.3 107.5 107.1
6 AAC 94.7 95.3 94.7 94.9
7 IND 94.1 94.3 94.2 94.2
8 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
9 MAC 90.3 91.7 90.8 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 29-December 3, 2018

Our Land Sharps have become the 1970’s Boston Red Sox.  Most years during this decade, the Red Sox had a division lead well into multiple seasons only to suffer a disappointing finish and close with a mediocre record or just short of winning the division.  In one year, they lost by a half-game that is obviously the shortest losing margin ever.  In one year, they lost in a one-game playoff.  In another year, they led the division into September only to finish in a second place tie 1 1/2 games out.  Yes, there was 1975, the year Baltimore’s great teams of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s began to fall apart, and a year before the Yankees began their fantastic run.  It was like 1967 all over again, as the rest of the pack fell apart in September.

Our five Land Sharps were in the equivalent of first place in the football season equivalent of the first 120 games.  All five sported winning records with fat returns on investment.  We wrote about how incredible this feat was–that five people at random would contribute to this site and all beat the spread by healthy margins through October.

Ah, but the Autumn winds were definitely Raiders to our Land Sharps’ bank accounts.  As we lampoon the month as “No Fave November, the underdogs began to have their days. Teams that were winning easily and covering deflated spreads began to feel the effects of the long grind.  Teams with nothing to lose began to play their future prospects, especially those that could still play multiple games and take a red shirt under the new rules.  Certain players began to feel the pressure of playing for a division title or stay in contention for the NCAA Playoffs.  Weather began to affect games and lower scores.  All in all, once November football began, the underdogs began covering the spread a tiny bit more than in previous weeks.  Some of this could also have been attributed to the public falling in love with teams that won big in September and October.

Well, it affected our Land Sharps.  Two of the five have performed like the 1977 Chicago Cubs.  If you don’t remember the 1977 Cubs, they were more than 20 games over .500 in the first half of the season and running away with the division, just like the 1969 Cubs.  However, the 1977 squad completely reversed in the second half, losing so many games that they ended the season 81-81, a full 21 games out of first place.

The other three Land Sharps have done a little better, but all five have given away some investment to the mighty Books in November.

We now come to Championship Week.  Except in a couple of cases where teams are playing last-minute replacement games to make up for the September hurricane, the teams playing this week are all top-rated squads.  There is no decisive underdog that can over-perform, and the players will be fighting tooth and nail to their last ounce of energy to win this week.  It is almost like September again, except there are more injuries and players playing while injured to some extent.  We think, or at least we hope the Land Sharps will close with a rush to reclaim their prior financial fame.

Ironically, as our Land Sharps have struggled in November, the PiRate Ratings have been on fire with back-to-back winning weeks.  We will probably jinx ourselves by revealing this, but we have been on a big hot streak with our NFL 10-point Teasers.  In fact, in the last two weeks, we are 7-0, and in the last five weeks, it is 20-7.  Our college picks belong in the sewer, but since we are here for entertainment purposes only, and we know about 65% of you reading this come here for college football, we will continue to issue both college and pro football selections.  Just please take our advice: NEVER wager real currency (or the stuff they pass off as real) on the selections you see made here.  You have some presents to buy for your relatives, so don’t end up having to give them that 10-year old fruitcake (can you really tell the difference between fresh and 10-years old?), because you cannot afford the Isotoner gloves after you lost all the money betting on one of our goofy parlays.

Because this week’s schedule featured a limited schedule, we allowed the Sharps to pick as few as one game up to a maximum of five games.  None chose the easy way out and selected just one or two games.  Our Sharps chose three, four, or five games.

1. Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 38-29-0  56.7%

Return on Investment: +9.1%

California +3 vs. Stanford

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

2. Buckeye Michelle

Season: 32-26-1  55.2%

Return on Investment: +5.8%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Ohio St. -14 vs. Northwestern

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

3. Stewed Meat

Season: 36-31-3  53.7%

Return on Investment: +2.7%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

4. Dean615

Season: 29-27-2  51.8%

Return on Investment: -1.2%

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Georgia +13 1/2 vs. Alabama

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

 

5. Friday Dog 13

Season: 34-33-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.4%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Middle Tennessee -1 1/2 vs. UAB

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE

Moneyline Parlay 2 @ +183
Must Win Must Lose
Central Florida Memphis
Boise St. Fresno St.

 

Moneyline Parlay 3 @ +191
Must Win Must Lose
Buffalo Northern Illinois
Virginia Tech Marshall
Appalachian St. Louisiana

 

NFL

10-Point Teaser 3-Game Parlay @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Dallas New Orleans 3 New Orleans
Green Bay Arizona 4 Green Bay
Baltimore Atlanta 11 Atlanta
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Denver Cincinnati 15 Cincinnati
L.A. Rams Detroit Pk L.A. Rams
Kansas City Oakland 4.5 Kansas City
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee N.Y. Jets 19 N.Y. Jets
New England Minnesota 5.5 New England
Seattle San Francisco Pk Seattle
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Washington Philadelphia 3.5 Philadelphia
Kansas City Oakland 24.5 Oakland
Chicago N.Y. Giants 14.5 N.Y. Giants

 

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