PiRate Ratings NFL For September 23-27, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Carolina	1.4	0.1	1.2
Jacksonville	Arizona	-9.0	-8.0	-9.8
Tennessee	Indianapolis	-0.6	0.4	-0.1
Detroit	Baltimore	-9.5	-9.1	-9.8
Buffalo	Washington	13.1	12.5	13.7
New England	New Orleans	-3.6	-1.8	-4.9
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	8.9	8.8
N.Y. Giants	Atlanta	3.7	4.0	1.7
Cleveland	Chicago	7.1	6.9	6.3
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	11.5	10.0	11.7
Las Vegas	Miami	1.5	1.3	1.1
Denver	N.Y. Jets	10.9	9.9	9.8
LA Rams	Tampa Bay	2.3	3.2	2.9
Minnesota	Seattle	-2.3	-1.6	-3.1
San Francisco	Green Bay	2.6	3.2	3.1
Dallas	Philadelphia	5.1	6.0	3.1

This Week’s PiRate Rating Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Houston	Carolina	49.5
Jacksonville	Arizona	50.5
Tennessee	Indianapolis	53.5
Detroit	Baltimore	55
Buffalo	Washington	42
New England	New Orleans	40.5
Kansas City	LA Chargers	54.5
N.Y. Giants	Atlanta	50.5
Cleveland	Chicago	45
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	41.5
Las Vegas	Miami	45.5
Denver	N.Y. Jets	39.5
LA Rams	Tampa Bay	56
Minnesota	Seattle	51.5
San Francisco	Green Bay	50.5
Dallas	Philadelphia	44.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	105.8	105.6	105.9	105.7	23.5	1-1
New England	100.9	100.3	100.3	100.5	18.5	1-1
Miami	99.2	99.7	100.2	99.7	19.5	1-1
N. Y. Jets	92.5	93.6	93.5	93.2	21.5	0-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	104.7	104.1	104.9	104.6	26	1-1
Pittsburgh	103.7	103.0	103.6	103.4	17.5	1-1
Cleveland	102.1	102.2	101.0	101.8	26	1-1
Cincinnati	95.2	96.0	94.9	95.4	24	1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	101.1	100.2	100.4	100.6	25	0-2
Tennessee	98.0	98.1	97.8	98.0	28.5	1-1
Houston	95.6	94.4	96.3	95.5	27.5	1-1
Jacksonville	90.9	92.6	90.6	91.4	22.5	0-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.2	106.2	106.0	106.1	31	1-1
Denver	100.5	100.4	100.3	100.4	18	2-0
LA Chargers	100.1	100.3	100.2	100.2	23.5	1-1
Las Vegas	97.7	98.1	98.3	98.0	26	2-0
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	99.6	100.5	98.6	99.6	26.5	1-1
Philadelphia	97.5	97.5	98.5	97.8	18	1-1
N.Y. Giants	96.1	96.2	95.3	95.9	21.5	0-2
Washington	95.7	96.1	95.2	95.7	18.5	1-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	102.7	102.1	102.4	102.4	26.5	1-1
Minnesota	99.9	100.4	99.2	99.8	24	0-2
Chicago	98.0	98.3	97.7	98.0	19	1-1
Detroit	92.7	92.5	92.6	92.6	29	0-2
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.5	105.1	108.1	106.9	22	1-1
Tampa Bay	107.1	106.9	106.6	106.9	28	2-0
Carolina	96.7	96.8	97.6	97.1	22	2-0
Atlanta	95.4	95.2	96.6	95.7	29	0-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	106.5	107.1	106.5	106.7	28	2-0
Seattle	105.2	105.1	105.2	105.2	27.5	1-1
Arizona	102.9	103.6	103.5	103.3	28	2-0
San Francisco	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4	24	2-0

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 23-25, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Marshall	9.5	9.3	11.3
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-3.6	-2.3	-3.4
Virginia	Wake Forest	-1.0	1.9	-1.1
Syracuse	Liberty	-6.5	-7.9	-9.5
Fresno St.	UNLV	19.2	22.6	23.2
Minnesota	Bowling Green	38.0	38.7	42.3
South Carolina	Kentucky	-1.8	-3.9	-2.3
Wisconsin (n)	Notre Dame	5.3	4.1	5.5
Ball St.	Toledo	0.4	0.6	-1.2
Western Michigan	San Jose St.	-5.7	-5.3	-5.0
Eastern Michigan	Texas St.	8.4	9.1	6.9
Maryland	Kent St.	20.1	16.6	17.6
Purdue	Illinois	15.5	14.7	16.1
Coastal Carolina	Massachusetts	38.3	36.3	42.0
Central Michigan	Florida Int’l.	23.5	21.6	21.1
Army	Miami (O)	5.1	7.6	8.4
Ohio St.	Akron	42.1	44.1	47.1
Georgia Southern	Louisiana	-20.3	-18.0	-21.5
Utah St.	Boise St.	-10.3	-8.7	-11.0
Duke	Kansas	8.5	12.3	13.2
Boston College	Missouri	0.9	0.7	1.6
Northwestern	Ohio U	17.0	15.4	15.2
Georgia Tech	North Carolina	-15.2	-15.5	-18.2
Iowa	Colorado St.	30.9	30.5	32.7
Western Kentucky	Indiana	-23.0	-21.0	-22.9
Air Force	Florida Atlantic	7.1	5.0	6.3
Utah	Washington St.	15.8	15.1	15.9
New Mexico St.	Hawaii	-19.4	-17.9	-21.0
BYU	South Florida	25.2	25.8	26.6
Arizona St.	Colorado	10.6	11.7	12.4
Stanford	UCLA	-2.2	-1.5	-3.0
USC	Oregon St.	12.5	12.6	13.9
Florida St.	Louisville	0.1	0.6	-1.2
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	5.9	5.3	5.4
Alabama	Southern Miss.	51.5	48.9	51.8
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-39.4	-40.3	-42.3
Houston	Navy	20.0	19.4	20.9
Oklahoma	West Virginia	15.1	14.7	16.9
Mississippi St.	LSU	-2.0	-3.0	-4.1
Connecticut	Wyoming	-28.5	-28.3	-33.0
Tulane	UAB	6.2	5.2	8.0
Texas	Texas Tech	16.9	14.2	16.3
Memphis	UTSA	0.6	0.9	2.6
TCU	SMU	20.0	17.8	18.9
Texas A&M (n)	Arkansas	4.8	5.8	6.4
Baylor	Iowa St.	-10.8	-9.6	-12.7
Florida	Tennessee	18.0	20.3	18.8
North Carolina St.	Clemson	-6.1	-7.3	-9.4
Michigan St.	Nebraska	6.5	5.7	5.5
Michigan	Rutgers	14.5	13.4	15.1
Louisiana-Monroe	Troy	-17.2	-17.4	-20.3
Auburn	Georgia St.	28.8	28.5	29.5
Tulsa	Arkansas St.	15.7	15.1	16.7
Old Dominion	Buffalo	-24.1	-22.3	-23.0
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	12.0	13.1	11.8
UTEP	New Mexico	-6.0	-5.6	-6.9
Washington	California	14.5	11.6	13.3
Oregon	Arizona	23.8	25.9	27.7

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Penn St.	Villanova	34.9
Virginia Tech	Richmond	30.7
Pittsburgh	New Hampshire	29.1
Temple	Wagner	26.9
Miami (Fla.)	Central Connecticut	36.0
Northern Illinois	Maine	22.9
San Diego St.	Towson	28.0
East Carolina	Charleston Sou.	25.0
Rice	Texas Southern	20.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	130.9
2	Georgia	128.7
3	Oklahoma	125.2
4	Iowa St.	121.8
5	Cincinnati	120.3
6	Clemson	119.2
7	Florida	118.9
8	Ohio St.	118.8
9	Texas A&M	118.1
10	North Carolina	118.1
11	Auburn	117.7
12	Ole Miss	117.6
13	U S C	117.5
14	Iowa	117.4
15	Penn St.	116.6
16	Texas	116.3
17	Wisconsin	114.7
18	T C U	114.4
19	Oregon	113.7
20	Arkansas	113.0
21	L S U	112.7
22	West Virginia	112.6
23	Michigan	112.1
24	BYU	111.1
25	Arizona St.	111.0
26	Indiana	111.0
27	U C L A	110.8
28	Miami (Fla.)	110.1
29	Utah	110.1
30	Notre Dame	109.7
31	Minnesota	109.5
32	Oklahoma St.	109.5
33	Washington	109.4
34	Maryland	109.3
35	Michigan St.	109.1
36	Coastal Carolina	108.8
37	NC State	108.5
38	Wake Forest	108.3
39	Louisiana	108.1
40	Baylor	107.8
41	Oregon St.	107.5
42	Kentucky	107.3
43	Purdue	107.2
44	Virginia Tech	107.1
45	Kansas St.	106.9
46	Mississippi St.	106.6
47	Missouri	106.6
48	Liberty	106.3
49	Nebraska	106.2
50	Stanford	105.6
51	Virginia	105.2
52	Boston College	104.7
53	Boise St.	104.3
54	Texas Tech	103.5
55	Appalachian St.	103.0
56	Tennessee	102.9
57	UCF	102.5
58	Colorado	102.4
59	Army	102.3
60	Louisville	102.2
61	Fresno St.	101.9
62	Houston	101.7
63	South Carolina	101.6
64	Pittsburgh	101.6
65	San Diego St.	101.5
66	Rutgers	100.7
67	San Jose St.	100.5
68	Wyoming	100.5
69	Northwestern	100.1
70	Tulane	100.0
71	Florida St.	99.5
72	California	99.3
73	Tulsa	99.1
74	Central Michigan	99.1
75	Nevada	99.1
76	Georgia Tech	98.8
77	Miami (Ohio)	98.3
78	Buffalo	97.9
79	Washington St.	97.5
80	SMU	97.0
81	U T S A	96.9
82	U A B	96.6
83	Marshall	96.0
84	Air Force	95.7
85	Troy	95.6
86	Memphis	95.3
87	East Carolina	95.3
88	Syracuse	95.3
89	Illinois	94.7
90	Kent St.	94.2
91	Toledo	94.0
92	Hawaii	93.1
93	Florida Atlantic	92.6
94	Western Michigan	92.1
95	Ball St.	92.0
96	Georgia St.	91.7
97	Utah St.	91.3
98	Eastern Michigan	90.9
99	Arizona	90.9
100	South Alabama	90.9
101	Duke	90.4
102	Colorado St.	89.0
103	Louisiana Tech	89.0
104	USF	88.3
105	Ohio	86.7
106	Vanderbilt	86.6
107	Arkansas St.	86.3
108	Western Kentucky	86.2
109	Middle Tennessee	86.0
110	Northern Illinois	86.0
111	Texas St.	85.8
112	Georgia Southern	85.2
113	New Mexico	84.8
114	Navy	84.6
115	U N L V	83.3
116	Southern Miss.	83.2
117	Kansas	82.1
118	Rice	82.0
119	Charlotte	80.9
120	Temple	80.5
121	Florida Int’l.	80.0
122	North Texas	79.7
123	U T E P	76.6
124	Akron	75.9
125	UL-Monroe	75.4
126	UMass	72.9
127	Bowling Green	72.8
128	Old Dominion	72.8
129	New Mexico St.	69.6
130	Connecticut	67.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	120.0	119.2	121.8	120.3
UCF	102.2	101.1	104.2	102.5
Houston	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
Tulane	100.0	98.7	101.4	100.0
Tulsa	99.0	99.3	99.0	99.1
SMU	96.4	97.3	97.2	97.0
Memphis	94.5	95.2	96.3	95.3
East Carolina	95.3	94.6	96.0	95.3
USF	88.7	87.8	88.4	88.3
Navy	85.1	84.3	84.5	84.6
Temple	79.7	81.2	80.5	80.5
AAC Averages	96.6	96.3	97.4	96.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	118.1	118.5	120.8	119.2
NC State	109.0	108.2	108.4	108.5
Wake Forest	108.5	107.5	108.8	108.3
Boston College	104.4	104.8	104.8	104.7
Louisville	101.8	101.4	103.3	102.2
Florida St.	99.4	99.6	99.6	99.5
Syracuse	95.8	95.6	94.6	95.3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	117.1	117.4	119.9	118.1
Miami (Fla.)	110.6	109.3	110.6	110.1
Virginia Tech	108.0	106.7	106.7	107.1
Virginia	104.5	106.3	104.7	105.2
Pittsburgh	101.4	102.2	101.4	101.6
Georgia Tech	98.9	98.9	98.7	98.8
Duke	90.3	91.6	89.4	90.4
ACC Averages	104.8	104.9	105.1	104.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	126.4	123.9	125.2	125.2
Iowa St.	122.2	120.5	122.6	121.8
Texas	117.2	115.4	116.3	116.3
T C U	114.9	113.6	114.6	114.4
West Virginia	114.3	112.3	111.3	112.6
Oklahoma St.	110.0	109.6	108.8	109.5
Baylor	108.5	108.0	106.9	107.8
Kansas St.	107.1	107.3	106.3	106.9
Texas Tech	103.3	104.2	103.0	103.5
Kansas	84.8	82.3	79.3	82.1
Big 12 Averages	110.9	109.7	109.4	110.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	118.2	118.3	119.9	118.8
Penn St.	115.3	116.3	118.0	116.6
Michigan	111.3	112.3	112.6	112.1
Indiana	110.7	110.4	111.8	111.0
Maryland	110.7	109.1	108.1	109.3
Michigan St.	109.4	109.0	109.0	109.1
Rutgers	99.7	101.9	100.5	100.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	116.9	116.5	118.9	117.4
Wisconsin	114.1	114.0	116.0	114.7
Minnesota	108.4	109.5	110.7	109.5
Purdue	107.0	106.5	108.0	107.2
Nebraska	105.9	106.3	106.5	106.2
Northwestern	100.3	100.2	99.7	100.1
Illinois	94.5	94.8	94.9	94.7
Big Ten Averages	108.7	109.0	109.6	109.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	96.0	95.8	96.3	96.0
Florida Atlantic	91.5	93.4	92.8	92.6
Western Kentucky	85.2	87.0	86.4	86.2
Middle Tennessee	85.7	85.5	86.9	86.0
Charlotte	80.2	81.1	81.5	80.9
Florida Int’l.	79.3	80.0	80.8	80.0
Old Dominion	72.3	73.1	72.9	72.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	96.8	97.4	96.7	96.9
U A B	96.8	96.6	96.4	96.6
Louisiana Tech	89.1	89.8	88.0	89.0
Southern Miss.	82.5	83.9	83.1	83.2
Rice	82.1	81.8	82.0	82.0
North Texas	80.1	79.7	79.2	79.7
U T E P	77.0	77.7	75.1	76.6
CUSA Averages	85.3	85.9	85.6	85.6
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
BYU	110.9	110.5	112.0	111.1
Notre Dame	108.8	109.9	110.5	109.7
Liberty	105.3	106.4	107.1	106.3
Army	102.2	102.4	102.3	102.3
UMass	74.3	73.6	70.9	72.9
New Mexico St.	70.0	70.8	68.0	69.6
Connecticut	68.1	69.1	65.4	67.5
Indep. Averages	91.4	91.8	90.9	91.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	100.1	97.8	97.0	98.3
Buffalo	98.4	97.4	97.9	97.9
Kent St.	93.7	95.5	93.5	94.2
Ohio	85.8	87.4	87.0	86.7
Akron	77.7	75.7	74.3	75.9
Bowling Green	73.4	73.8	71.3	72.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	99.8	98.6	98.9	99.1
Toledo	94.6	94.1	93.4	94.0
Western Michigan	92.2	92.7	91.4	92.1
Ball St.	92.9	92.8	90.2	92.0
Eastern Michigan	92.6	90.9	89.2	90.9
Northern Illinois	87.4	85.6	85.0	86.0
MAC Averages	90.7	90.2	89.1	90.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	103.8	104.8	104.3
Wyoming	99.7	100.3	101.4	100.5
Air Force	95.6	95.5	96.1	95.7
Utah St.	91.0	92.1	90.9	91.3
Colorado St.	89.0	88.9	89.2	89.0
New Mexico	85.0	85.3	84.0	84.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	100.3	102.3	103.3	101.9
San Diego St.	101.8	101.3	101.4	101.5
San Jose St.	100.9	101.0	99.5	100.5
Nevada	98.6	100.0	98.7	99.1
Hawaii	93.4	92.7	93.0	93.1
U N L V	84.1	82.7	83.1	83.3
MWC Averages	95.3	95.5	95.4	95.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	112.3	113.6	115.2	113.7
Washington	108.4	109.8	110.1	109.4
Oregon St.	107.4	107.3	107.7	107.5
Stanford	105.2	106.3	105.2	105.6
California	96.9	101.2	99.8	99.3
Washington St.	97.5	98.1	97.0	97.5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	116.9	116.9	118.5	117.5
Arizona St.	110.6	111.2	111.3	111.0
U C L A	110.5	110.8	111.1	110.8
Utah	110.3	110.2	109.9	110.1
Colorado	102.9	102.5	101.9	102.4
Arizona	91.5	90.7	90.5	90.9
Pac-12 Averages	105.9	106.5	106.5	106.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	128.2	128.2	129.9	128.7
Florida	118.1	119.8	118.9	118.9
Kentucky	106.7	108.5	106.8	107.3
Missouri	106.5	107.2	106.2	106.6
Tennessee	103.1	102.4	103.1	102.9
South Carolina	101.9	101.6	101.5	101.6
Vanderbilt	87.2	86.4	86.1	86.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.0	129.8	131.9	130.9
Texas A&M	117.6	118.5	118.2	118.1
Auburn	118.0	116.9	118.1	117.7
Ole Miss	117.3	117.4	117.9	117.6
Arkansas	113.3	113.2	112.3	113.0
L S U	111.8	112.9	113.3	112.7
Mississippi St.	106.8	106.9	106.2	106.6
SEC Averages	112.0	112.1	112.2	112.1
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.6	106.9	109.8	108.8
Appalachian St.	102.4	102.1	104.6	103.0
Troy	95.2	95.7	96.0	95.6
Georgia St.	92.2	91.4	91.5	91.7
Georgia Southern	85.4	85.7	84.6	85.2
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	108.7	106.7	109.1	108.1
South Alabama	91.2	91.3	90.2	90.9
Arkansas St.	86.3	87.2	85.4	86.3
Texas St.	87.1	84.9	85.4	85.8
UL-Monroe	76.0	76.3	73.7	75.4
Sun Averages	93.4	92.8	93.0	93.1

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.1
2	Big 12	110.0
3	Big Ten	109.1
4	Pac-12	106.3
5	Atlantic Coast	104.9
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Mountain West	95.4
8	Sun Belt	93.1
9	Independents	91.4
10	Mid-American	90.0
11	Conference USA	85.6

The Big 12 Conference May Stay Big

The departures of Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12 Conference to the Southeastern Conference was supposed to be the death knell of the Big 12. The planned addition of BYU, Cincinnati ,Central Florida, and Houston supposedly would make the league just another Group of 5 type of conference. How could this new Big 12 compete with the ACC or Pac-12 without the Sooners and Longhorns?

The joke may be on the ACC and Pac-12, because if we remove Oklahoma and Texas and place BYU, UCF, Cinti, and Houston in the Big 12 this week, the cumulative PiRate Rating average for the league would be 107.8. Where does this place the future Big 12 in the overall conference ratings? It puts the league in third place behind the SEC and Big Ten. The SEC improves by 1.1 point with the Sooners and Longhorns added, while the Big 12 drops just 2.2 points by dropping UT and OU and picking up the future four additions.

This is more about how weak the ACC and Pac-12 appear to be this year. Clemson does not warrant Playoff consideration at this point, barely defeating a weak Georgia Tech team yesterday. North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech, which lost to Big 12 middle of the pack team West Virginia. North Carolina State lost to a Mississippi State team that lost at Memphis. Unless Wake Forest or Boston College runs the table, the ACC doesn’t look playoff-worthy this season.

Oregon absolutely must run the table in the weak Pac-12 to have a chance to make the Playoffs. If Ohio State ends up falling back in the pack in the Big Ten, then the Ducks’ win at the Horseshoe will lose its luster. UCLA’s losing at home to Fresno State, while San Diego State knocked off Utah, and Nevada having beat Cal earlier in the season, plus BYU knocking off Arizona State, plus Colorado losing at home to Minnesota 30-0, and then a terrible Arizona team losing to Northern Arizona to extend their losing streak to 15 games, it makes a 13-0 team’s resume look less worthy than any 1-loss team from the SEC, Big Ten, or even Big 12.

The conferences that are aligning to stop the SEC’s domination think that by dragging their feet on playoff expansion, that will prevent up to four SEC teams from getting Playoff bids. They better realize that without expansion, their conferences may not receive any bids for several years. Today, at least three of the top four teams are SEC teams, and if you add Oklahoma to the SEC, then the top four are SEC teams. Expanding to 12 teams and then giving automatic bids to the Power 5 Conference champions may be the only real hope that the Pac-12 will get a team in the Playoffs.

Answering A Question We Get Every Year

We are fortunate to gain new subscribers and casual onlookers to this site every year, and when the newcomers comment, the most frequent question goes something like this: “Why do you rank State 7 places ahead of Tech, when Tech just beat State by 10 points?”

The short answer to that is that we do not RANK teams. We RATE teams. Our ratings are predictive and not retrodictive. Retrodictive rankings and ratings judge teams on what they have done so far. These systems are excellent for determining which teams are most deserving to play in the College Football Playoffs, and in basketball, they are great to determine which teams deserve at-large bids as opposed to NIT bids.

The PiRate Ratings attempt to predict the outcomes of the next week’s games. If Tech beat State by 10 points earlier this year, our ratings may show that State should be Tech by 10 points if they were to play this week. Pro football fans tend to get this principle more than strictly college fans. If the Chiefs lose by three at the Chargers in October, the expectation in December may be that the Chiefs will win by double digits in the rematch. Predictive ratings would probably show the Chiefs to be a touchdown better than LAC, but retrodictive ratings might show the opposite.

This Week’s TV Fare

There are some interesting games on the Tube this week, and if you feel the first cold air of Autumn, this might be a great Saturday afternoon for a hearty stew and a blanket as you veg out on the sofa. The evening games are just after dinner salads for the afternoon banquet. Here are our recommended choices.

All Times Eastern Daylight

12 PM

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin on Fox: This game takes place on a neutral field at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Fighting Irish don’t appear to be as strong as last year, but they are undefeated and need a quality win, after Florida State and Toledo look awful, and the win over Purdue was only so-so. Meanwhile, UW got an extra week to prepare for this game, and the loss to Penn State doesn’t look as bad now that the Nittany Lions beat Auburn.

Texas vs. Texas Tech on ABC: This game looked like an easy win for the Longhorns back in August, but it looks more like a potential tossup now. Texas has proven it can beat weak teams like Rice by 40 points or more. However, when the Longhorns go up against teams that have muscle and quickness, their talent proves to be just short of exceptional. Texas Tech has been down most of the years since they dismissed Mike Leach, but the Red Raiders have potentially their best team since the Pirate was forced to walk the plank. Their pasting of Houston to begin the season was genuine.

Mississippi State vs. LSU on ESPN: Did you watch the Mississippi State – Memphis game and see the Bulldogs get hosed by the zebras? Not just one, but two bad officiating mistakes were made on the key play of the game. First, the officials did not catch the fact that Memphis had two players wearing the number 4 jersey on a punt and return. Second, Mississippi State obviously downed the same punt, and the back judge signaled for a stoppage in play, leading to the Bulldogs stopping their action. A Memphis player then picked up the ball and ran for a touchdown. The officials were bascially forced to admit after the game that they were human. Mississippi State should be 3-0, and now they must win at least three SEC games to become bowl eligible this year. LSU basically becomes a must-win game. However, this game might be a must-win game for both LSU as a team and Ed Orgeron as a coach in Baton Rouge in 2022.

Boston College vs. Missouri on ESPN2: The ACC needs a signature non-conference win, and it needs a team to stay undefeated. Boston College may be the last hope this year. Missouri isn’t a top 10 team, but the Tigers are a middle of the pack SEC team, but a win over the Tigers would move BC into the top 25. One factor that won’t help BC is the weather. Temperatures figure to be above average, or more like Missouri.

3:30 PM

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (@ Arlington, TX) on CBS: The first of two great games in this time slot Saturday, the winner of this game will improve to 4-0 with an SEC victory. Second year Arkansas coach Sam Pittman is quickly proving to be one of the best new coaches in college football. The Razorbacks were weaker than Vanderbilt just a couple years ago, and Pittman has his Hogs on the precipice of looking like a New Year’s Bowl team. The Aggies have not found their overdrive gear yet in 2021. The defense has been impressive, but after Minnesota shutout Colorado yesterday, the 10-7 win in Boulder doesn’t look like much. Don’t be shocked if this game was still in doubt in the fourth quarter.

Michigan vs. Rutgers on ABC: This didn’t look like it would be an important game three weeks ago, but all of a sudden, it becomes a crucial game. The winner will be 1-0 in the Big Ten and 4-0 overall. If we had to guess, we’d say this is going game will go under the predicted total, because both teams have quality defenses. Michigan figures to be a double-digit favorite, but the Scarlet Knights will bring their A-game to the Big House, because that’s what Coach Greg Schiano’s teams do. With Ohio State looking somewhat vulnerable this year, the winner of this game will definitely be in contention in the Big Ten East.

North Carolina State v. Clemson on ESPN: We here in the galley of the PiRate ship tend to get cabin fever on Autumn Saturdays using all the ships power to monitor four and sometimes five college football games at once. This one will be part of the afternoon rush. Clemson is close to eliminating itself from the Playoff race. The Tigers didn’t show up yesterday against Georgia Tech. We’re talking Tech not the Bulldogs. Now, CU must leave home to play a Wolf Pack team that has a history of playing a couple of touchdowns better at home than on the road. If NC St. wins this game, the ACC probably gets no playoff team this year.

PiRate Picks For September 16-20, 2021

After a swing and a miss on opening week of the football season, last week we went two for two with big wins. Not only did we win both of our Money Line Parlays, we mentioned a first week NFL system that has worked well over the course of a couple of decades. We told you that even though we are only issuing Money Line Parlays this year, that playing the NFL underdogs of 1/2 to 3 points in Week 1 was a winning proposition. There were seven such underdogs last week, and playing them and the points went 5-2.

For the year, our pretend bank account has wagered pretend money on four games, $400 at $100 per wager, and we have received $604.56 in return from the pretend book. That’s a return on investment of 51.14%.

Now, the pressure is on to keep that profit and not give it back to the imaginary book. We begin including NFL games this week, and we have chosen four different parlays, each with more than +120 odds. Additionally, we are doing something we have only done three or four times in the last decade–combine a college game and NFL game into a parlay. We are number’s enthusiasts here on the PiRate ship, so sometimes we are left with orphan numbers needing to go to a matchmaking service. Combining college and pro football games into a hopeful match is rare for us, but there is no real reason not to do it. We just like to know at 1 AM on Sundays whether we won or not.

Enjoy these four parlays, but remember that these are for entertainment purposes only. We strongly urge you not to wager real money on these picks unless you have done your own research, and this feature merely verifies your own findings.

This Week’s Money Line Parlays

Date:	Sept 16-20
Odds:	+182
Must Win	Opponent
Kansas St.	Nevada
Troy	Southern Miss.
Odds:	+126.42
Must Win	Opponent
Mississippi St.	Memphis
Denver	Jacksonville
Odds:	+140.08
Must Win	Opponent
LA Rams	Indianapolis
Kansas City	Baltimore
Odds:	+127.91
Must Win	Opponent
Arizona	Minnesota
Seattle	Tennessee

PiRate Ratings NFL Football Week 2: Sep 16-20, 2021

PiRate Ratings Week 2 NFL Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Washington	N.Y. Giants	2.2	2.3	2.4
Carolina	New Orleans	-7.8	-5.3	-7.5
Cleveland	Houston	9.5	10.8	7.6
Chicago	Cincinnati	5.5	5.1	5.7
Pittsburgh	Las Vegas	9.5	8.4	8.8
Miami	Buffalo	-3.6	-2.8	-2.7
Indianapolis	LA Rams	-2.3	-3.9	-3.1
Philadelphia	San Francisco	-1.8	-1.9	-1.0
Jacksonville	Denver	-6.5	-4.8	-6.7
N.Y. Jets	New England	-5.9	-4.2	-4.2
Arizona	Minnesota	6.2	6.5	7.8
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	14.8	14.6	13.0
Seattle	Tennessee	10.2	9.9	10.5
LA Chargers	Dallas	3.4	2.8	4.6
Baltimore	Kansas City	1.0	0.4	1.5
Green Bay	Detroit	11.9	11.3	11.4

PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Washington	N.Y. Giants	38
Carolina	New Orleans	46
Cleveland	Houston	53.5
Chicago	Cincinnati	43
Pittsburgh	Las Vegas	43.5
Miami	Buffalo	44
Indianapolis	LA Rams	53
Philadelphia	San Francisco	44
Jacksonville	Denver	40.5
N.Y. Jets	New England	41
Arizona	Minnesota	50
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	54
Seattle	Tennessee	56
LA Chargers	Dallas	52
Baltimore	Kansas City	55
Green Bay	Detroit	55.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Week 2
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	105.8	105.6	105.9	105.7	24	0-1
New England	100.9	100.3	100.3	100.5	19	0-1
Miami	99.2	99.7	100.2	99.7	20	1-0
N. Y. Jets	92.5	93.6	93.5	93.2	22	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	104.7	104.1	104.9	104.6	25	0-1
Pittsburgh	103.7	103.0	103.6	103.4	17.5	1-0
Cleveland	102.1	102.2	101.0	101.8	26	0-1
Cincinnati	95.2	96.0	94.9	95.4	24	1-0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	101.1	100.2	100.4	100.6	25	0-1
Tennessee	98.0	98.1	97.8	98.0	28.5	0-1
Houston	95.6	94.4	96.3	95.5	27.5	1-0
Jacksonville	90.9	92.6	90.6	91.4	22.5	0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.2	106.2	106.0	106.1	30	1-0
LA Chargers	100.1	100.3	100.2	100.2	24.5	1-0
Denver	100.5	100.4	100.3	100.4	18	1-0
Las Vegas	97.7	98.1	98.3	98.0	26	1-0
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	99.6	100.5	98.6	99.6	27.5	0-1
Philadelphia	97.5	97.5	98.5	97.8	19	1-0
N.Y. Giants	96.1	96.2	95.3	95.9	20.5	0-1
Washington	95.7	96.1	95.2	95.7	17.5	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	102.4	101.7	101.9	102.0	26.5	0-1
Minnesota	99.7	100.1	98.7	99.5	23	0-1
Chicago	98.2	98.6	98.1	98.3	19	0-1
Detroit	93.0	92.9	93.1	93.0	29	0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.5	105.1	108.1	106.9	23	1-0
Tampa Bay	107.1	106.9	106.6	106.9	26.5	1-0
Carolina	96.7	96.8	97.6	97.1	23	1-0
Atlanta	95.4	95.2	96.6	95.7	27.5	0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	106.5	107.1	106.5	106.7	28	1-0
Seattle	105.2	105.1	105.2	105.2	27.5	1-0
Arizona	102.9	103.6	103.5	103.3	27	1-0
San Francisco	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4	25	1-0

PiRate Ratings College Football September 12, 2021

Note: We want to thank all our fans that were part of the opening weekend introduction of the PiRate Ratings Pro Football Simulation Tabletop Game. We were overwhelmed by the number of orders you made for the salute to the American Football League.

If you are interested in knowing more about the game, click on the link below.

PiRate Football Game Info

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana	Ohio U	23.3	19.2	22.3
Louisville	Central Florida	0.3	1.1	-0.8
Illinois	Marylalnd	-14.3	-12.2	-11.2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	10.3	9.4	11.3
Michigan	Northern Illinois	20.3	23.5	24.3
Army	Connecticut	35.7	34.5	38.9
Massachusetts	Eastern Michigan	-15.9	-14.8	-16.5
Temple	Boston College	-22.4	-21.3	-22.0
West Virginia	Virginia Tech	9.7	9.1	8.3
Buffalo	Coastal Carolina	-8.7	-7.0	-9.9
Pittsburgh	Western Michigan	15.8	16.5	17.5
Oklahoma	Nebraska	25.6	22.5	24.0
Indiana	Cincinnati	-3.9	-3.1	-4.3
Texas A&M	New Mexico	35.3	35.9	36.9
Colorado	Minnesota	4.9	3.3	1.4
Wyoming	Ball St.	3.4	4.3	7.7
Kansas St.	Nevada	8.9	7.3	7.4
Notre Dame	Purdue	0.5	2.3	0.8
Clemson	Georgia Tech	26.7	27.1	29.6
Washington St.	USC	-12.8	-11.7	-14.6
Florida	Alabama	-13.3	-10.1	-13.9
Wake Forest	Florida St.	8.7	7.1	8.4
Iowa	Kent St.	26.4	23.9	29.4
Louisiana Tech	SMU	-4.5	-4.9	-7.0
Ohio St.	Tulsa	23.4	23.4	25.6
Kansas	Baylor	-15.1	-17.4	-19.6
Toledo	Colorado St.	16.5	16.3	15.3
Duke	Northwestern	-11.6	-10.3	-12.5
Arkansas	Georgia Southern	30.0	29.2	29.1
Memphis	Mississippi St.	-13.7	-13.3	-11.4
Washington	Arkansas St.	17.5	17.8	20.1
UTSA	Middle Tennessee	14.1	14.9	12.3
Liberty	Old Dominion	35.6	36.3	37.6
Marshall	East Carolina	5.0	6.0	4.4
Southern Miss.	Troy	-10.5	-9.1	-10.2
Texas Tech	Florida Int’l.	26.2	26.2	23.4
Georgia St.	Charlotte	14.2	12.3	12.0
San Diego St.	Utah	-6.1	-6.7	-6.5
Georgia	South Carolina	29.0	29.2	31.7
Penn St.	Auburn	-0.9	1.4	1.7
Air Force	Utah St.	10.3	9.0	11.1
North Carolina	Virginia	14.8	12.8	17.8
LSU	Central Michigan	12.5	14.9	14.8
North Texas	UAB	-8.8	-8.7	-8.9
Vanderbilt	Stanford	-14.2	-16.1	-14.9
Texas	Rice	33.2	31.3	32.0
Ole Miss	Tulane	14.3	15.6	12.6
Boise St.	Oklahoma St.	-2.7	-2.8	-0.9
BYU	Arizona St.	2.1	0.6	2.1
UNLV	Iowa St.	-32.7	-32.2	-33.9
UCLA	Fresno St.	18.1	16.2	15.8
Hawaii	San Jose St.	-3.5	-4.3	-2.2

This week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Kentucky	Chattanooga	30.2
Missouri	SE Missouri	29.4
Tennessee	Tennessee Tech	30.7
Syracuse	Albany	21.5
Rutgers	Delaware	23.5
Miami (O)	Long Island	25.5
Akron	Bryant	9.2
Appalachian St.	Elon	27.7
Oregon St.	Idaho	21.2
California	Sacramento St.	22.3
Bowling Green	Murray St.	5.2
Florida Atlantic	Fordham	27.4
Houston	Grambling	28.8
South Florida	Florida A&M	15.5
Texas St.	Incarnate Word	13.5
Oregon	Stony Brook	32.4
North Carolina St.	Furman	27.1
Louisiana-Monroe	Jackson St.	11.6
South Alabama	Alcorn St.	23.3
New Mexico St.	South Carolina St.	1.5
Arizona	Northern Arizona	16.3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	132.3
2	Georgia	128.5
3	Oklahoma	126.4
4	Clemson	121.7
5	Iowa St.	120.6
6	Ohio St.	119.5
7	Cincinnati	119.2
8	Auburn	118.2
9	Texas A&M	117.8
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Iowa	117.6
12	Florida	116.8
13	Penn St.	116.0
14	U S C	115.7
15	Wisconsin	114.7
16	T C U	114.4
17	Ole Miss	114.0
18	Texas	114.0
19	Oregon	113.5
20	Miami (Fla.)	113.4
21	U C L A	113.0
22	West Virginia	112.9
23	Indiana	112.4
24	Arkansas	112.3
25	Arizona St.	111.7
26	L S U	111.4
27	Utah	110.5
28	BYU	110.3
29	Maryland	109.6
30	Oklahoma St.	109.5
31	Coastal Carolina	109.1
32	Michigan	108.6
33	Purdue	108.6
34	Notre Dame	108.3
35	NC State	108.1
36	Kentucky	108.0
37	Mississippi St.	108.0
38	Louisiana	106.9
39	Virginia Tech	106.9
40	Wake Forest	106.8
41	Liberty	106.8
42	Oregon St.	106.3
43	Missouri	106.2
44	Colorado	106.2
45	Michigan St.	106.1
46	Minnesota	106.0
47	Washington	105.6
48	Virginia	105.6
49	Kansas St.	105.4
50	Nebraska	105.3
51	Stanford	105.1
52	Baylor	104.9
53	Boston College	104.8
54	Boise St.	104.3
55	UCF	104.0
56	Pittsburgh	103.3
57	Texas Tech	102.9
58	Tulane	102.9
59	Appalachian St.	102.8
60	Northwestern	102.5
61	Tennessee	102.4
62	Army	102.1
63	Louisville	101.7
64	South Carolina	101.5
65	Florida St.	101.3
66	Houston	101.2
67	San Diego St.	101.1
68	Nevada	100.6
69	Rutgers	100.4
70	San Jose St.	100.4
71	Central Michigan	100.4
72	Washington St.	99.6
73	California	99.6
74	Fresno St.	99.3
75	Tulsa	98.4
76	Toledo	98.3
77	Miami (Ohio)	97.9
78	Buffalo	97.6
79	Wyoming	97.4
80	SMU	97.2
81	Air Force	97.0
82	U T S A	96.9
83	Georgia Tech	96.8
84	Marshall	96.7
85	Troy	95.4
86	Ball St.	95.3
87	Syracuse	94.9
88	East Carolina	94.6
89	Illinois	94.5
90	U A B	94.2
91	Kent St.	94.0
92	Memphis	93.7
93	Hawaii	93.1
94	Florida Atlantic	92.5
95	Arizona	92.2
96	Georgia St.	91.7
97	South Alabama	91.4
98	Eastern Michigan	91.0
99	Arkansas St.	90.1
100	Utah St.	89.8
101	Western Michigan	89.7
102	Northern Illinois	88.9
103	Louisiana Tech	88.7
104	Duke	88.5
105	Ohio	88.3
106	USF	88.2
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Vanderbilt	87.0
109	Western Kentucky	86.2
110	Middle Tennessee	86.1
111	Georgia Southern	85.9
112	Colorado St.	85.3
113	Rice	84.8
114	New Mexico	84.8
115	U N L V	84.7
116	Navy	84.6
117	Kansas	84.5
118	Southern Miss.	83.4
119	North Texas	82.4
120	Charlotte	80.9
121	Florida Int’l.	80.6
122	Temple	80.4
123	U T E P	76.6
124	UL-Monroe	75.6
125	Akron	75.2
126	UMass	72.8
127	Bowling Green	72.4
128	Old Dominion	72.3
129	New Mexico St.	69.4
130	Connecticut	67.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.0	118.0	120.6	119.2
UCF	103.6	102.5	105.9	104.0
Tulane	102.7	101.4	104.5	102.9
Houston	101.6	100.2	101.9	101.2
Tulsa	98.4	98.6	98.1	98.4
SMU	96.5	97.5	97.6	97.2
East Carolina	94.6	93.7	95.4	94.6
Memphis	92.9	93.5	94.7	93.7
USF	88.6	87.7	88.3	88.2
Navy	85.1	84.3	84.5	84.6
Temple	79.6	81.1	80.4	80.4
AAC Averages	96.6	96.2	97.4	96.8

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.6	121.0	123.3	121.7
NC State	108.6	107.8	108.0	108.1
Wake Forest	107.2	106.0	107.3	106.8
Boston College	104.5	104.9	104.9	104.8
Louisville	101.4	101.0	102.6	101.7
Florida St.	101.0	101.4	101.4	101.3
Syracuse	95.4	95.2	94.2	94.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.7	116.8	119.7	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	113.8	112.5	114.1	113.4
Virginia Tech	107.8	106.4	106.4	106.9
Virginia	104.9	106.9	104.9	105.6
Pittsburgh	102.9	103.9	103.3	103.3
Georgia Tech	96.9	96.9	96.7	96.8
Duke	88.5	89.8	87.3	88.5
ACC Averages	105.0	105.0	105.3	105.1

Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	127.6	125.0	126.5	126.4
Iowa St.	121.1	119.3	121.4	120.6
T C U	114.9	113.6	114.6	114.4
Texas	115.0	113.0	113.9	114.0
West Virginia	114.5	112.6	111.6	112.9
Oklahoma St.	110.0	109.6	108.8	109.5
Kansas St.	105.8	105.8	104.7	105.4
Baylor	105.5	105.1	104.1	104.9
Texas Tech	102.9	103.7	102.1	102.9
Kansas	87.3	84.7	81.6	84.5
Big 12 Averages	110.5	109.2	108.9	109.5

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	118.8	119.0	120.8	119.5
Penn St.	114.7	115.8	117.4	116.0
Indiana	112.0	111.9	113.3	112.4
Maryland	111.0	109.3	108.3	109.6
Michigan	107.8	108.9	109.2	108.6
Michigan St.	106.5	106.1	105.8	106.1
Rutgers	99.4	101.6	100.2	100.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	117.0	116.5	119.4	117.6
Wisconsin	114.1	114.0	116.0	114.7
Purdue	108.4	107.8	109.6	108.6
Minnesota	104.9	106.0	107.3	106.0
Nebraska	105.0	105.5	105.5	105.3
Northwestern	102.6	102.5	102.3	102.5
Illinois	94.2	94.6	94.7	94.5
Big Ten Averages	108.3	108.6	109.3	108.7

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	96.7	96.7	96.9	96.7
Florida Atlantic	91.4	93.3	92.7	92.5
Western Kentucky	85.2	87.0	86.4	86.2
Middle Tennessee	85.7	85.5	87.1	86.1
Charlotte	80.1	81.1	81.5	80.9
Florida Int’l.	79.7	80.5	81.7	80.6
Old Dominion	72.0	72.6	72.2	72.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	96.8	97.4	96.5	96.9
U A B	94.5	94.2	93.9	94.2
Louisiana Tech	89.0	89.6	87.6	88.7
Rice	84.8	84.7	84.9	84.8
Southern Miss.	82.6	84.2	83.4	83.4
North Texas	82.7	82.4	82.0	82.4
U T E P	77.0	77.7	75.1	76.6
CUSA Averages	85.6	86.2	85.9	85.9

FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
BYU	110.2	109.5	111.1	110.3
Notre Dame	107.4	108.6	108.9	108.3
Liberty	105.6	106.9	107.8	106.8
Army	102.0	102.0	102.3	102.1
UMass	74.2	73.6	70.6	72.8
New Mexico St.	69.8	70.6	67.8	69.4
Connecticut	68.3	69.5	65.4	67.7
Indep. Averages	91.1	91.5	90.6	91.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.7	97.4	96.6	97.9
Buffalo	98.2	97.2	97.4	97.6
Kent St.	93.6	95.5	93.0	94.0
Ohio	87.2	89.1	88.5	88.3
Akron	77.0	75.0	73.6	75.2
Bowling Green	73.0	73.4	70.9	72.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	101.1	99.8	100.2	100.4
Toledo	98.8	98.4	97.7	98.3
Ball St.	96.2	96.1	93.6	95.3
Eastern Michigan	92.7	90.9	89.5	91.0
Western Michigan	90.0	90.3	88.8	89.7
Northern Illinois	90.4	88.5	87.9	88.9
MAC Averages	91.5	91.0	89.8	90.8

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	103.8	104.8	104.3
Wyoming	96.7	97.3	98.3	97.4
Air Force	96.8	96.7	97.4	97.0
Utah St.	89.5	90.6	89.3	89.8
Colorado St.	85.3	85.1	85.4	85.3
New Mexico	85.0	85.3	84.0	84.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	101.5	100.9	100.9	101.1
Nevada	99.9	101.5	100.3	100.6
San Jose St.	100.9	101.0	99.4	100.4
Fresno St.	97.6	99.7	100.6	99.3
Hawaii	93.4	92.7	93.1	93.1
U N L V	85.5	84.2	84.6	84.7
MWC Averages	94.7	94.9	94.8	94.8

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	112.1	113.4	115.0	113.5
Oregon St.	106.2	106.1	106.5	106.3
Washington	104.6	105.9	106.3	105.6
Stanford	104.8	105.9	104.6	105.1
Washington St.	99.5	100.3	99.1	99.6
California	97.2	101.5	100.1	99.6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	115.2	115.0	116.7	115.7
U C L A	112.7	112.9	113.3	113.0
Arizona St.	111.1	112.0	112.0	111.7
Utah	110.6	110.6	110.4	110.5
Colorado	106.7	106.3	105.6	106.2
Arizona	92.8	92.0	91.8	92.2
Pac-12 Averages	106.1	106.8	106.8	106.6

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	127.9	127.9	129.9	128.5
Florida	116.0	117.9	116.6	116.8
Kentucky	107.4	109.2	107.5	108.0
Missouri	106.1	106.8	105.8	106.2
Tennessee	102.6	101.9	102.6	102.4
South Carolina	101.9	101.6	101.2	101.5
Vanderbilt	87.6	86.8	86.7	87.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	132.4	131.0	133.5	132.3
Auburn	118.6	117.4	118.7	118.2
Texas A&M	117.3	118.2	117.9	117.8
Ole Miss	113.9	114.0	114.1	114.0
Arkansas	112.8	112.5	111.5	112.3
L S U	110.5	111.7	112.0	111.4
Mississippi St.	108.1	108.3	107.5	108.0
SEC Averages	111.7	111.8	111.8	111.8

Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.8	107.1	110.3	109.1
Appalachian St.	102.2	101.9	104.4	102.8
Troy	95.1	95.4	95.7	95.4
Georgia St.	92.3	91.4	91.5	91.7
Georgia Southern	85.9	86.4	85.4	85.9
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	107.6	105.3	107.9	106.9
South Alabama	91.7	91.8	90.7	91.4
Arkansas St.	90.1	91.1	89.2	90.1
Texas St.	89.1	86.9	87.4	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.2	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.0	93.4	93.6	93.7

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.8
2	Big 12	109.5
3	Big Ten	108.7
4	Pac-12	106.6
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Mountain West	94.8
8	Sun Belt	93.7
9	Independents	91.1
10	Mid-American	90.8
11	Conference USA	85.9

Saturday’s TV Games of Interest

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 Noon

Indiana vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats could pick up some much needed schedule strength with a road win against the Hoosiers, although Indiana’s big loss to Iowa may not make a CU win all that influential to the Selection Committee down the road. As of this publication, it has not been decided if this will be the ABC or ESPN game.

Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina: Why do we call this important? Coastal Carolina has a chance to run the table for a second consecutive regular season, and this figures to possibly be their second toughest game on their schedule. If the Chanticleers win this one on the road, then possible a road game against Appalachian State on October 20 will be all that stands in CCU’s way of going 12-0 and competing for a NY6 Bowl. This game will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska: We don’t expect an exciting game in this one, but it marks a very important 50th anniversary. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, the number one Cornhuskers visited Norman to face the number two Sooners in the “Game of the Century.” We believe it was the game of the second half of the century, as the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game at Yankee Stadium was just as big.

On that great day 50 years ago, the lead changed hands three times with Nebraska tailback Jeff Kinney diving into the end zone late in the fourth quarter to give the ‘Huskers the 35-31 win. Oklahoma went on to the Sugar Bowl and destroyed a 9-1 Auburn team that had Heisman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan at quarterback. The final score was 40-22, but it was 40-6 before Coach Chuck Fairbanks emptied his bench.

Nebraska met undefeated Alabama in the Orange Bowl for the national title. The game was a blowout by halftime, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 win. Nebraska finished first in the polls, and Oklahoma finished #2. Colorado, which only lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma edged Alabama for #3, while the Tide fell to #4. This was the only time in history that the #1 team beat the #’s 2, 3, and 4 teams in a season.

As for this year’s game, Oklahoma should win by a lopsided score, but maybe Nebraska will play its best game under Coach Scott Frost and make it interesting. Catch this game on Fox.

West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies look strong enough defensively to compete with all their ACC brethren, while West Virginia is a work in progress under second year coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers are a different team at Mountaineer Field than they are on the road. This should be a stern test for Justin Fuente’s squad. This one airs on FS1.

3:30 PM

Florida vs. Alabama: Florida might have a bit of a quarterback controversy between starter Emory Jones and exciting backup Anthony Richardson. Jones tossed two interceptions against South Florida’s defense. Richardson ran for 115 yards and a touchdown on just four carries, and he was three for three for 152 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Alabama has no controversies. The Tide look unstoppable with what should be a rebuilding year. Can they manhandle the Gators in Gainesville? A 20+ – point win looks highly possible. This game is CBS’s first SEC game of the season.

7:30 PM

Penn St. vs. Auburn: This is Bryan Harsin’s first test as Auburn’s head coach. Penn State is not all the way back as a power, but playing them at Happy Valley is quite difficult. Expect a potentially lower scoring game, but it should be highly competitive and worth watching. It’s the ABC prime time game.

10:15 PM

BYU vs. Arizona St.: After dominating Utah Saturday night, this BYU team looks just as tough or even tougher in 2021 than it looked in 2020 with an All-American quarterback now starting for the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Arizona State has quietly started 2-0 with two creampuffs.

The Sun Devils have withstood some major accusations with potential illegal recruiting, so bad, that an insider has claimed that an incredible tell-all book about the transgressions would be a bestseller.

This figures to be ASU’s last chance for multiple seasons to make hay before their sun sets with numerous punishments, that is if the NCAA has any investigators remaining. This game airs on ESPN.

10:45 PM

UCLA vs. Fresno St.: After Saturday’s Oregon win at Ohio State, Fresno State’s close loss to the Ducks on September 4 looked a lot more impressive. The Bulldogs won’t be intimidated by the 2-0 Bruins, coming off a big win over LSU plus a week off.

UCLA didn’t need the week off after beating LSU at the Rose Bowl, but the Bruins won’t be hurt by the bye week. This should be an action-packed and exciting game, and Fresno State could still be there in the fourth quarter with a chance to win. Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

Wide Variety In Styles This Year

The up-tempo offenses of the recent decade have some new company with teams going the other way. The hurry-up no huddle teams are still to be found in great numbers. However, some coaches are killing the clock trying to play ball-control and taking all the time off the play clock between plays.

Here’s an exceptional case in point to show the extremes from yesterday. Central Michigan played ball-control yesterday against FCS opponent Robert Morris. They gave RMU just 38 scrimmage plays (30 runs and 8 passes). The total of 119 plays looked like a game from the 1950s. In Madison, WI, Eastern Michigan was also held to 38 plays and 92 total yards against the Badgers in a game that had just 113 total plays. Several additional games were limited to less than 130 scrimmage plays, something that has been a rarity in recent seasons. Troy and Liberty combined for just 114 scrimmage plays.

At the other extreme, Marshall did something rarely done in college football history. They ran 100 plays in their win over UNC Central. They gained 700 yards. Arkansas State just missed 100 with 99 plays; they scored 50 points against Memphis, and they lost! North Texas had 96 plays against SMU and scored just 12 points.

Introducing The PiRate Football Game

The PiRate Ratings have created a new pro football tabletop strategy game, called PiRate Football. You can purchase the game at the following link.

PiRate Football Game

Our first set of teams in this new game is our salute to the venerable American Football League. Ten great franchises made the AFL exciting, entertaining, wide-open, and star-studded.

The teams you will get in this game are:

1961 Houston Oilers

1963 San Diego Chargers

1964 Buffalo Bills

1964 Boston Patriots

1966 Kansas City Chiefs

1967 Oakland Raiders

1968 New York Jets

1972 Miami Dolphins

1973 Cincinnati Bengals

1977 Denver Broncos

This new game comes with 26 offensive and 14 defensive plays, expanded special teams options, a unique way to play this as a solitaire game, and everything you need to play a football game other than the dice you need to supply plus a pencil to keep stats.

100% of all the proceeds of our games, Sabertooth Baseball and PiRate Football, go to local charity with no administrative costs or other junk. We just give the money to our selected charity. We specialize in helping elderly on fixed incomes. We have recently purchased and had installed a hot water heater for two 80+ year old sisters thanks to proceeds from the Sabertooth Baseball Game. Our goal is to supply a washer and dryer to an elderly couple who had a 15+ year old washer and 20+ year old dryer quit working in 2020.

Our gratitude goes to all that purchased the two baseball sets this Spring and Summer. Please help us this Autumn to make the Winter Holidays really happy for a paid of 80-somethings.

PiRate Picks For September 9-13, 2021

Last week’s opening picks missed, as Virginia Tech made Sam Howell look like Thurston Howell. Duke then failed to show up against Charlotte, and poof, our two picks were destroyed. Such is life when you wager on parlays that return the odds we look for when we place our imaginary wagers.

We have two more picks returning some fat odds this week, and maybe we’ll get lucky and hit on one. We will also tell you a week 1 tip for the NFL. Although we are here just for Money Line Parlays this year, it doesn’t mean we cannot give out a little interesting information.

Here are our two Money Line Parlays for Week two of the college season. We will eventually pick some NFL games, but Week one is not the time and place for that.

Parlay 1

Odds:	+224
Must Win	Opponent
Virginia	Illinois
Rutgers	Syracuse
Michigan	Washington

Parlay 2

Odds:	+180.56
Must Win	Opponent
Mississippi St.	North Carolina St.
TCU	California

Here’s our tip for Week 1 of the NFL season. Underdogs of 1 to 3 points tend to win outright 50% of the time, but they also lose by less than 3 points another 8-10% of the time. That’s 58-60% success for wagering on 3-point Underdogs.

There are seven games as of this writing with a 3-point spread. The Dogs are:

Houston against Jacksonville

Arizona against Tennessee

Philadelphia against Atlanta

Indianapolis against Seattle

Cincinnati against Minnesota

Miami against New England

N.Y. Giants against Denver

PiRate Ratings College Football, September 7, 2021

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Coastal Carolina	Kansas	25.3	25.0	31.4
Boise St.	UTEP	28.6	26.8	30.8
Virginia	Illinois	10.3	11.9	9.3
Army	Western Kentucky	23.5	21.5	22.8
Ohio St.	Oregon	14.4	13.3	13.6
Massachusetts	Boston College	-31.1	-32.5	-36.3
South Florida	Florida	-25.7	-29.3	-27.2
Tennessee	Pittsburgh	5.3	3.5	5.3
East Carolina	South Carolina	-5.7	-6.8	-4.2
Florida Atlantic	Georgia Southern	-0.1	1.6	1.7
Minnesota	Miami (O)	8.6	12.8	15.3
Oklahoma St.	Tulsa	16.0	15.6	15.4
Northern Illinois	Wyoming	-2.8	-5.7	-7.4
Syracuse	Rutgers	0.0	-2.6	-1.7
Virginia Tech	Middle Tennessee	25.6	24.8	23.0
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	18.4	18.1	20.2
Notre Dame	Toledo	13.9	16.3	17.7
Connecticut	Purdue	-29.1	-27.4	-33.2
Navy	Air Force	-5.8	-6.5	-6.8
Penn St.	Ball St.	19.1	20.4	25.0
Akron	Temple	6.1	2.2	1.4
Georgia	UAB	31.3	31.4	33.6
TCU	California	24.6	18.6	21.4
Nebraska	Buffalo	6.2	7.8	7.1
Iowa St.	Iowa	8.1	6.9	6.0
Colorado (d)	Texas A&M	-9.7	-11.5	-12.2
Bowling Green	South Alabama	-18.6	-18.5	-20.5
Rice	Houston	-10.5	-8.8	-10.3
Miami (Fla.)	Appalachian St.	16.8	16.1	15.2
Florida Int’l.	Texas St.	-7.9	-4.5	-3.8
Mississippi St.	North Carolina St.	1.0	1.8	0.6
Wisconsin	Eastern Michigan	24.1	25.9	29.3
SMU	North Texas	13.9	15.4	15.6
Troy	Liberty	-7.7	-8.7	-9.4
Arkansas St.	Memphis	-0.4	0.4	-3.3
Arkansas	Texas	-5.2	-3.3	-6.0
Kentucky	Missouri	3.9	5.2	3.9
North Carolina	Georgia St.	24.4	25.3	28.4
Michigan	Washington	2.3	1.7	1.5
Colorado St.	Vanderbilt	1.5	2.6	3.4
Arizona	San Diego St.	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0
BYU	Utah	-0.8	-2.1	-0.1
Arizona St.	UNLV	28.9	31.5	31.3
USC	Stanford	20.9	19.6	23.3
Oregon St.	Hawaii	15.2	15.8	15.7
(d) CU-A&M game	played in Denver

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	132.7
2	Georgia	125.8
3	Oklahoma	125.4
4	Iowa St.	122.1
5	Ohio St.	121.9
6	Clemson	121.6
7	U S C	119.8
8	Cincinnati	119.2
9	Texas A&M	118.3
10	Auburn	117.8
11	Florida	117.1
12	Texas	117.0
13	Iowa	116.6
14	North Carolina	116.3
15	T C U	116.0
16	Miami (Fla.)	114.9
17	Penn St.	114.9
18	Wisconsin	114.6
19	Ole Miss	113.8
20	U C L A	113.0
21	Arizona St.	112.1
22	Indiana	112.1
23	Utah	111.9
24	L S U	111.6
25	West Virginia	111.4
26	Oklahoma St.	111.3
27	Oregon	111.1
28	Notre Dame	109.9
29	Arkansas	109.2
30	NC State	109.1
31	Coastal Carolina	108.9
32	BYU	108.9
33	Maryland	108.4
34	Louisiana	108.1
35	Washington	108.1
36	Kentucky	107.8
37	Wake Forest	107.3
38	Mississippi St.	107.3
39	Virginia Tech	107.2
40	Michigan	106.9
41	Minnesota	106.6
42	Liberty	106.5
43	Missouri	106.5
44	Boston College	106.4
45	Michigan St.	106.0
46	Oregon St.	106.0
47	Kansas St.	105.8
48	Colorado	105.7
49	Purdue	104.6
50	Baylor	104.1
51	Texas Tech	104.0
52	Army	103.8
53	Florida St.	103.8
54	Tennessee	103.7
55	Virginia	103.7
56	Boise St.	103.5
57	UCF	103.5
58	Nebraska	103.5
59	Northwestern	102.8
60	Tulane	102.2
61	South Carolina	102.0
62	Pittsburgh	102.0
63	Appalachian St.	101.9
64	Louisville	101.6
65	Stanford	101.5
66	San Jose St.	100.4
67	Nevada	100.1
68	Central Michigan	99.7
69	Rutgers	99.6
70	Washington St.	99.6
71	Buffalo	99.5
72	San Diego St.	98.9
73	Houston	98.6
74	Fresno St.	98.1
75	California	97.4
76	Miami (Ohio)	97.4
77	Wyoming	97.3
78	Tulsa	97.1
79	Toledo	97.0
80	Marshall	96.7
81	U A B	96.7
82	Georgia Tech	96.6
83	SMU	96.5
84	Ball St.	96.4
85	Illinois	96.2
86	U T S A	95.9
87	Air Force	95.7
88	Syracuse	95.7
89	Troy	95.4
90	Arizona	94.9
91	East Carolina	94.4
92	Memphis	93.5
93	Hawaii	93.4
94	Georgia St.	93.2
95	South Alabama	92.8
96	Kent St.	91.5
97	Eastern Michigan	91.2
98	Ohio	90.8
99	Arkansas St.	90.4
100	Georgia Southern	90.2
101	Northern Illinois	89.0
102	Western Michigan	89.0
103	Louisiana Tech	89.0
104	Utah St.	89.0
105	Florida Atlantic	88.8
106	Duke	88.3
107	Texas St.	88.2
108	Rice	87.7
109	USF	87.7
110	Vanderbilt	86.6
111	Navy	86.3
112	Colorado St.	86.2
113	Middle Tennessee	85.7
114	New Mexico	85.5
115	Kansas	84.7
116	U N L V	84.6
117	Western Kentucky	84.2
118	North Texas	83.0
119	Southern Miss.	82.8
120	Charlotte	80.7
121	Florida Int’l.	80.3
122	Akron	78.5
123	U T E P	77.8
124	Temple	77.3
125	UL-Monroe	75.6
126	Connecticut	72.7
127	Old Dominion	71.8
128	UMass	71.6
129	Bowling Green	71.1
130	New Mexico St.	68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.0	118.0	120.6	119.2
UCF	103.1	102.0	105.4	103.5
Tulane	102.0	100.7	103.8	102.2
Houston	99.1	97.5	99.2	98.6
Tulsa	97.2	97.3	96.7	97.1
SMU	95.8	96.9	96.9	96.5
East Carolina	94.5	93.4	95.3	94.4
Memphis	92.7	93.1	94.6	93.5
USF	88.3	87.0	87.7	87.7
Navy	86.8	86.0	86.3	86.3
Temple	76.4	78.1	77.4	77.3
AAC Averages	95.9	95.5	96.7	96.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.5	120.9	123.2	121.6
NC State	109.5	108.8	109.1	109.1
Wake Forest	107.7	106.5	107.8	107.3
Boston College	105.9	106.5	106.9	106.4
Florida St.	103.5	103.9	103.9	103.8
Louisville	101.3	100.9	102.5	101.6
Syracuse	96.2	95.9	95.1	95.7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	115.2	115.3	118.3	116.3
Miami (Fla.)	115.2	114.0	115.6	114.9
Virginia Tech	108.1	106.8	106.8	107.2
Virginia	103.1	105.1	102.8	103.7
Pittsburgh	101.6	102.7	101.8	102.0
Georgia Tech	96.7	96.7	96.5	96.6
Duke	88.3	89.6	87.1	88.3
ACC Averages	105.2	105.3	105.5	105.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	126.6	124.0	125.5	125.4
Iowa St.	122.6	120.8	122.9	122.1
Texas	118.0	115.9	117.2	117.0
T C U	116.6	115.1	116.3	116.0
West Virginia	113.0	111.1	110.1	111.4
Oklahoma St.	111.7	111.4	110.7	111.3
Kansas St.	106.2	106.2	105.1	105.8
Baylor	104.7	104.3	103.3	104.1
Texas Tech	104.0	104.8	103.2	104.0
Kansas	87.4	84.9	81.8	84.7
Big 12 Averages	111.1	109.8	109.6	110.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Penn St.	113.5	114.6	116.5	114.9
Indiana	111.7	111.6	113.0	112.1
Maryland	109.8	108.1	107.1	108.4
Michigan	106.2	107.1	107.3	106.9
Michigan St.	106.4	106.0	105.7	106.0
Rutgers	98.6	100.9	99.3	99.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	116.0	115.5	118.4	116.6
Wisconsin	113.9	113.9	115.9	114.6
Minnesota	105.1	106.6	108.1	106.6
Purdue	104.4	103.8	105.6	104.6
Nebraska	103.2	103.7	103.5	103.5
Northwestern	102.9	102.8	102.6	102.8
Illinois	95.8	96.2	96.6	96.2
Big Ten Averages	107.8	108.0	108.8	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	96.7	96.7	96.9	96.7
Florida Atlantic	87.7	89.7	89.0	88.8
Middle Tennessee	85.4	85.1	86.7	85.7
Western Kentucky	83.2	85.1	84.3	84.2
Charlotte	79.9	80.9	81.3	80.7
Florida Int’l.	79.2	80.2	81.4	80.3
Old Dominion	71.5	72.1	71.7	71.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7
U T S A	95.8	96.4	95.5	95.9
Louisiana Tech	89.3	89.9	87.9	89.0
Rice	87.6	87.7	87.9	87.7
North Texas	83.4	83.0	82.7	83.0
Southern Miss.	82.0	83.6	82.8	82.8
U T E P	78.0	79.0	76.2	77.8
CUSA Averages	85.5	86.1	85.8	85.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.7	110.3	110.8	109.9
BYU	109.0	108.0	109.7	108.9
Liberty	105.3	106.6	107.5	106.5
Army	103.7	103.6	104.1	103.8
Connecticut	73.3	74.5	70.4	72.7
UMass	73.3	72.5	69.1	71.6
New Mexico St.	69.2	69.9	66.8	68.6
Indep. Averages	91.8	92.2	91.2	91.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Buffalo	100.0	99.0	99.4	99.5
Miami (Ohio)	99.5	96.8	95.8	97.4
Kent St.	91.1	93.0	90.5	91.5
Ohio	89.7	91.6	91.0	90.8
Akron	80.5	78.3	76.9	78.5
Bowling Green	71.8	72.1	69.3	71.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.4	99.1	99.5	99.7
Toledo	97.8	97.0	96.1	97.0
Ball St.	97.4	97.3	94.5	96.4
Eastern Michigan	92.9	91.0	89.6	91.2
Northern Illinois	90.6	88.6	87.9	89.0
Western Michigan	89.3	89.6	88.1	89.0
MAC Averages	91.7	91.1	89.9	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.6	102.8	104.0	103.5
Wyoming	96.5	97.2	98.3	97.3
Air Force	95.6	95.5	96.1	95.7
Utah St.	88.7	89.8	88.5	89.0
Colorado St.	86.0	86.0	86.5	86.2
New Mexico	85.6	86.0	85.0	85.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	100.9	101.0	99.4	100.4
Nevada	99.4	101.0	99.8	100.1
San Diego St.	99.4	98.7	98.6	98.9
Fresno St.	96.4	98.5	99.4	98.1
Hawaii	93.7	93.0	93.4	93.4
U N L V	85.5	84.0	84.3	84.6
MWC Averages	94.3	94.5	94.4	94.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	109.8	111.1	112.6	111.1
Washington	106.9	108.4	108.9	108.1
Oregon St.	105.9	105.8	106.2	106.0
Stanford	101.3	102.4	100.8	101.5
Washington St.	99.5	100.3	99.1	99.6
California	95.0	99.5	97.9	97.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	119.2	119.0	121.0	119.8
U C L A	112.7	112.9	113.3	113.0
Arizona St.	111.4	112.5	112.6	112.1
Utah	111.8	112.1	111.8	111.9
Colorado	106.4	105.8	104.9	105.7
Arizona	95.4	94.7	94.6	94.9
Pac-12 Averages	106.3	107.0	107.0	106.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	125.2	125.1	127.1	125.8
Florida	116.0	118.3	116.9	117.1
Kentucky	107.2	109.1	107.1	107.8
Missouri	106.3	106.9	106.2	106.5
Tennessee	103.9	103.1	104.1	103.7
South Carolina	102.3	102.2	101.6	102.0
Vanderbilt	87.4	86.4	86.1	86.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	132.8	131.4	133.9	132.7
Texas A&M	117.6	118.7	118.6	118.3
Auburn	118.2	117.0	118.3	117.8
Ole Miss	113.7	113.8	113.9	113.8
L S U	110.7	111.9	112.2	111.6
Arkansas	109.8	109.6	108.2	109.2
Mississippi St.	107.5	107.6	106.7	107.3
SEC Averages	111.3	111.5	111.5	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
East Division	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.7	106.9	110.1	108.9
Appalachian St.	101.3	100.9	103.4	101.9
Troy	95.1	95.4	95.7	95.4
Georgia St.	93.8	92.9	92.9	93.2
Georgia Southern	90.3	90.7	89.8	90.2
West Division	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	108.8	106.5	109.1	108.1
South Alabama	92.9	93.1	92.3	92.8
Arkansas St.	90.3	91.5	89.3	90.4
Texas St.	89.6	87.2	87.7	88.2
UL-Monroe	76.2	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.8	94.2	94.4	94.5

Rating of Conferences

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.5
2	Big 12	110.2
3	Big Ten	108.2
4	Pac-12	106.8
5	Atlantic Coast	105.3
6	American Athletic	96.0
7	Sun Belt	94.5
8	Mountain West	94.4
9	Independents	91.7
10	Mid-American	90.9
11	Conference USA	85.8

What To Make Of Week 1

Alabama Football 2021 = UCLA Basketball 1967-1973

College basketball between 1967 and 1973 was all about one team against the rest. UCLA so dominated basketball in those years that their games were seldom entertaining to non-Bruins fans. They won games by scores such as 115-65, 114-56, and 82-43. They beat other top 10 teams by scores like 79-53, 73-57, and 96-77. In the rare occasion that they played the #1 team, when they were not ranked #1, they merely won 101-69 after leading by 44 points before putting in the scrubs.

Alabama football has reached that same point. Games are no longer entertaining unless you are a Crimson Tide fan. Coach Nick Saban has reached the same level as John Wooden. Last year, Alabama played a 10-game all SEC schedule plus two playoff games. Six of the 13 opponents were ranked, and ‘Bama won these six gamed by an average of three touchdowns per game. The Tide suffered heavy losses to the NFL Draft, including the Heisman Trophy winner and a 1st round picked quarterback. For any other program, 2021 would be a large rebuilding season. For Alabama, they simply plug in the next 1st round draft pick at QB, who after one career start is now the front-runner for this year’s Heisman Trophy. It’s just like Sidney Wicks replacing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the best player in the nation in 1969-70, and Bill Walton replacing Wicks in 1971-72.

Revenge Of The FCS

Six FCS teams beat FBS teams in Week One of the college football season. While South Dakota State beating Colorado State may not have been all that surprising, since SDSU is the Alabama of FCS, but when Washington lost at home to Montana, that shook the Power 5 Pac-12 to its foundation.

There are two reasons why these FCS teams were more competitive than normal. First, these FCS teams played football in the Spring. Most of these teams looked like they were in mid-season form, playing more like a Power 5 team in a postseason bowl. Also, with the free extra year given to all players by the NCAA, age tends to lead to parity. An outstanding 5-star 18-year old is light years better than a 3-star 18-year old. A 23-year old college football player most likely is a 3-star holdover, and he is little better than a 23-year old 2-star player at an FCS school.

An excellent case in point is the East Tennessee State slaughter over Vanderbilt. Everything possible was in place to forecast this 20-point blowout win over the SEC host. The Buccaneers played in the Spring and enjoyed an incredible year on the defensive side of the ball. Most of their two-deep returned. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt brought in a new coaching staff after the Commodores went 0-9 and had to use a female soccer player as their placekicker in their final two games. Numerous players left the team via the Transfer Portal, and the incoming coach made it known that he preferred not to sign players from that portal. The Commodores are a very youthful team lacking any real star players, while ETSU had one player in his late 20’s playing Saturday night. Thus, not only was the game an upset that finished 41 points different from the spread, it was obvious that ETSU dominated the Commodores. In some respect, men beat boys.

With all FBS teams now having a game under their belts, expect some of this FCS advantage to disappear each week until it is gone.

Must Watch Games This Week

12 Noon Eastern

Oregon visits the giant horseshoe to face Ohio State on Fox. The Ducks underperformed in a win over Fresno State, but it was obvious that they didn’t show the nation all their weapons. The Pac-12 suffered numerous black eyes, with the rest of the North Division losing their first games.

3:30 PM Eastern

Saturday is the 20th anniversary of the tragic bombings in New York and Washington, D.C. It is no coincidence that Air Force and Navy will play on CBS rather than their regular SEC game.

On ABC, Iowa visits Iowa State for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. The Cyclones were not impressive in their opener against Northern Iowa, but last year, Iowa State lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by 17 in their first game and then beat Oklahoma two weeks later. Iowa looked like the class of the Big Ten West when they trounced Indiana.

7:00 PM Eastern

Perhaps the game of the day comes from Fayetteville, Arkansas, where the Razorbacks will host long-time arch-rival Texas in a game that will soon become a regular affair once Texas joins the SEC (maybe in 2022). Neither team is the dominant top 10 team like they were many times in the 1960’s and 1970’s, but this should be an incredibly, hard-fought game between two 1-0 teams. Catch this game on ESPN.

Mississippi State hosts North Carolina State, and the ACC is suffering more than the Pac-12 after one week. The Wolfpack were one of two bright spots for the ACC, while the Bulldogs had to win on the final play over Louisiana Tech. This should be a close game, and the teams will fight tooth and nail to get to 2-0. This one is on ESPN2.

7:30 PM Eastern

Missouri visits Kentucky in a battle to determine which SEC East team will become the potential top challenger to Georgia, assuming Florida does not retain this position. Missouri had a pedestrian performance in a win over Central Michigan in week one. On the other hand, Kentucky unveiled a new offense led by former Rams’ assistant Laim Coen. Coen’s offense made Penn State transfer Will Levis look like Jared Goff of 2018. Can the Cats put up flashy numbers against an SEC opponent? Tune into this one on The SEC Network.

10:15 PM Eastern

The late games this week could be duds except for the Utah at BYU game in Provo. Aside from it being a rivalry game, both schools looked strong in week one wins. Catch this rivalry game on ESPN.

PiRate Ratings NFL For Week 1

Week 1 PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tampa Bay	Dallas	11.3	10.2	12.4
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	7.7	8.6	8.5
Carolina	N.Y. Jets	7.4	6.4	7.5
Houston	Jacksonville	5.0	1.5	5.6
Tennessee	Arizona	3.8	3.4	3.4
Washington	LA Chargers	2.0	2.2	1.5
Atlanta	Philadelphia	6.3	6.4	7.1
Indianapolis	Seattle	1.5	0.8	1.2
Cincinnati	Minnesota	-2.8	-2.7	-2.4
Detroit	San Francisco	-5.8	-5.9	-6.0
Kansas City	Cleveland	7.3	7.4	8.8
New England	Miami	5.3	4.2	3.6
N.Y. Giants	Denver	1.3	1.9	1.1
New Orleans	Green Bay	-0.8	-3.1	-0.1
LA Rams	Chicago	8.0	8.0	7.7
Las Vegas	Baltimore	-4.7	-3.9	-4.8

Week 1 PiRate Rating Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Tampa Bay	Dallas	54
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	41.5
Carolina	N.Y. Jets	46
Houston	Jacksonville	49
Tennessee	Arizona	56.5
Washington	LA Chargers	43
Atlanta	Philadelphia	48.5
Indianapolis	Seattle	53.5
Cincinnati	Minnesota	46
Detroit	San Francisco	52
Kansas City	Cleveland	55
New England	Miami	40
N.Y. Giants	Denver	38.5
New Orleans	Green Bay	50.5
LA Rams	Chicago	47
Las Vegas	Baltimore	51

Week 1 PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	107.1	107.1	107.5	107.2	24	0-0
New England	101.2	100.6	100.6	100.8	19.5	0-0
Miami	98.9	99.4	99.9	99.4	20.5	0-0
N. Y. Jets	92.4	93.5	93.3	93.1	22.5	0-0
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	105.1	104.5	105.5	105.0	25	0-0
Pittsburgh	102.4	101.5	102.0	102.0	17.5	0-0
Cleveland	102.0	102.0	100.6	101.5	25.5	0-0
Cincinnati	94.7	95.4	94.2	94.8	23.5	0-0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	102.3	101.4	101.8	101.9	25.5	0-0
Tennessee	100.6	100.8	100.6	100.7	29	0-0
Houston	94.5	93.0	95.0	94.2	27	0-0
Jacksonville	92.0	94.0	91.9	92.7	22	0-0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	106.3	106.4	106.4	106.4	29.5	0-0
LA Chargers	99.7	99.8	99.7	99.7	24.5	0-0
Denver	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8	18	0-0
Las Vegas	97.3	97.7	97.7	97.6	26	0-0
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	99.2	100.1	97.9	99.1	28	0-0
Washington	98.6	99.1	98.2	98.6	18.5	0-0
N.Y. Giants	97.3	97.6	96.7	97.2	20.5	0-0
Philadelphia	94.8	94.7	95.5	95.0	20	0-0
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	105.2	104.8	104.9	105.0	27	0-0
Minnesota	100.0	100.5	99.2	99.9	22.5	0-0
Chicago	99.5	100.0	99.6	99.7	19	0-0
Detroit	93.1	93.0	93.2	93.1	28	0-0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tampa Bay	107.5	107.3	107.3	107.4	26	0-0
New Orleans	104.4	101.7	104.8	103.6	23.5	0-0
Atlanta	98.1	98.0	99.6	98.6	28.5	0-0
Carolina	96.8	96.9	97.8	97.2	23.5	0-0
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.5	105.0	104.3	104.6	28	0-0
Seattle	103.8	103.7	103.6	103.7	28	0-0
San Francisco	101.9	102.0	102.1	102.0	24	0-0
Arizona	99.8	100.4	100.2	100.1	27.5	0-0

PiRate Picks For September 1-6, 2021

Last week, we explained what our PiRate Picks are all about. We even gave you a sample Money Line Parlay that included Illinois beating Nebraska, UTEP beating New Mexico St., and UCLA beating Hawaii. This parlay had payout odds of +341, which meant if you wagered $100, and the teams all won, you would receive $441 in return. But, we made sure you understood that this was a sample and not official.

As of Monday afternoon, three people had notified us that they had played a little real currency on this parlay and were quite happy with their return.

How many times can we state this? Please do not bet real money on our just for fun selections! Okay, so one of you wagered $20, one of you wagered $50, and one of you wagered $100 on this parlay and won money. These same people could just as easily have lost this wager, and there is no guarantee that this week’s two selections have a snowball’s chance in Hades of winning.

We strongly urge you to look at these selections as mathematical entertainment and nothing else. If you are going to wager real money on sports, please do your research. Don’t rely on this site as your substitute for research. We use mathematical factors and not actual research to make these selections.

That said, we have two actual Money Line parlays this week, involving five games. If you did not read last week’s tutorial, or if you are a long-time follower of this site and need a refresher course, our expertise is the Money Line Parlay. The Money Line is a number, plus or minus. If the number is a minus, then you must wager this number of dollars against the book’s offering $100. So, a -145 means you the bettor must put up $145 to win $100 from the book. If you bet $145 on this game and won, you would receive $245 from the book ($100 + your investment money). If the number is positive, for every $100 you wager, the book offers the amount of the the positive numbers in dollars. So, a +170 means that if you wager $100 and win, the book will give you $270 ($170 + your investment).

When you wager on the money line, all that matters is that your selection wins. They can win by one point or 100 points; it doesn’t make a difference.

Obviously, if you want to wager on Alabama against Louisiana-Monroe, expect the Money Line to be about -100,000. You would have to wager $100,000 to win $100. If you wagered $100 on this parlay, when Alabama wins, you would receive one dime in profit, and the book would possibly not accept this one wager.

Obviously, it is much easier to bet a favorite to win, but you will receive less than even money odds. A -240 favorite equates to the team having a 70% chance of winning the game. If you believe that team has a better than 70% chance of winning, it might be worth your while to wager on it. If you win 75% of the time you wager on a -240 money line, you will turn a small profit.

The problem with wagering on favorites is that it is quite difficult to maintain the percentage needed to make a profit. Betting on 20 different teams at -240 and winning 13 of 20 means a loss of $380.

If you wager on a bunch of underdogs, there is also little chance that in the long run you will come out ahead. The answer to this is to bundle a group of favorites into a parlay that returns better than even money odds. For our purposes, we look for parlays of +120 and higher. At +150, we break even if the teams we wager on to win all win more than 40% of the time. At +200, if the parlay has a better than 33.3% chance on winning, we turn a profit.

It looks easy. Try it yourself without wagering. Look at the Money Line odds and make a parlay. There are free parlay calculators online to show you your odds. Try it with 10 parlays and see if you can win enough to make it work. You will find that the books know what they are doing. They build billion dollar mega-structures in the desert, because they know how to vacuum your money into their accounts.

Here are our two selections for Week 1 of the College Football Season. Remember, these are just for fun. We have a bottomless pretend bank account to repeatedly wager $100 on every selection.

Odds:	+125
Must Win	Opponent
Central Florida	Boise St.
Duke	Charlotte
Odds:	+265.98
Must Win	Opponent
North Carolina	Virginia Tech
Kansas St.	Stanford
Purdue	Oregon St.