It’s that time of year again. Every June 1, the PiRate ship starts getting ready to sail for the college and pro football seasons. Last year, after a slow start, our ship gained steam and began passing other prediction ships in the high seas, moving up to the top of the human ratings in the Prediction Tracker by the end of the year thanks to an excellent second half.
Just like we have with our basketball ratings through the years, we realize that our system for rating and updating teams in the preseason needs improvements. The Transfer Portal has presented us with some mighty rough seas the last two years, and we underestimated how important this new source of improvements these players make to teams.
The Transfer Portal is in essence the equivalent of NFL Free Agency. When Tom Brady signed with Tampa Bay a couple years ago, it was important enough to elevate the Bucs to a Super Bowl Championship. When A.J. Brown moved from the Titans to the Eagles last year, it was worth an extra three points to the Eagles’ overall power rating at the expense of the Titans. In college football, there are many more of these free agents, and almost every school has been affected by the loss and/or gain of experienced players.
The Transfer Portal is now more important than incoming recruiting classes and the recruiting class before that (redshirt freshmen & true sophomores). It is almost as important as returning starters and key reserves. The last two years, we tried to streamline the grading of the Portal, but that hasn’t worked successfully. Grading the changes in the Portal is going to take four weeks, as we have already begun doing just that, and it took four days to grade the first conference.
What this means is that when we debut our power ratings in August, they will be from a slightly different formula. We know that many of you reading this are professional investors in college and pro football game outcomes, and we know from multiple people that the differences in our three ratings compared to the line is key in how you use our ratings. We want you to know that our three ratings will begin the season with different algorithmic formulas. The weekly updating system will remain the same.
With the FBS season set to begin on August 26 this year (week 0), we plan to release our preseason college ratings all at once this year on Sunday, August 20. Due to a heavy schedule outside of football, we will not issue a preview of each conference like in past years. The August 20 publication will simply be the regular Sunday publication we put out during the regular season–the overall ratings, the ratings by conference, and the next week’s spreads.
Of course, with changes to the alignments in the AAC, Big 12, and CUSA this year, we have had to completely reformat our spreadsheets. And, next year, the top two leagues will have two new powerhouse teams. What could happen with the Big 12 and Pac-12 could really make 2024 a season of imfamy.
Our congratulations go out to the Connecticut Huskies, champions of the 2023 NCAA Basketball world. UConn dominated this tournament and looked like the legitimate favorite in every round. As you might have read three weeks ago, we tabbed UConn as one of our top two teams and even recommended splitting your champion votes in your bracket pools. However, we did preface it by saying that if a Big Ten team was ever going to break through, this year’s Purdue team had the talent. We did talk at length about how the Big Ten and proteges of Coach Gene Keady (and Keady himself) had greatly underperform in the NCAA Tournaments, and we told you why–they are too half-court oriented and do not play pressure defense, rarely fast break, and have trouble guarding overly athletic opponents.
We will kick ourselves all summer thinking that we first began isolating on UConn in January as having the resume of a national champion, and then even on Bracketnomics Monday, we expounded on the championship virtues of this team, and yet we totally blew it on Tuesday. Remind us never to pick a Big Ten team to win the national championship.
That said, remember what happened the next year after Virginia lost to UMBC in the opening round as a #1 seed losing to a #16. Coach Tony Bennett changed his offense and altered his defense to put more pressure on the ball and attack the paint offensively with athletic players, and the Cavaliers won the national title the next year.
Of course, if Hunter Dickinson was to choose Purdue as his next team, could Matt Painter possibly miss out with the two best big men in the nation in his starting lineup?
We apologize for missing a couple of days here, including a complete preview of the national championship game and the NIT Final Four. Family issues have made it mandatory to devote time away from our hobby. Hopefully, by the start of the college football season, everything will be back to normal.
The PiRates now sail out to sea for the Summer. We will be back (hopefully) in August to begin our college football previews.
One of these Cinderella teams will become the next Butler, playing a big-time team for the National Championship Monday night. We don’t have this as a factor, but a CUSA team won the CBI, and a CUSA team beat another CUSA team in the NIT Championship Game. Could it be that CUSA is a lot better than the numbers show? If so, then how much more does Florida Atlantic deserve to be given credit?
The efficiency numbers are outside the range of a national champion, so if one of these teams cuts down the nets Monday night, it will throw a monkey wrench into this system. As for this semifinal game, FAU has the closer championship resume with a much better offensive efficiency rating. The Owls also appear to be the superior inside defense team in this system. Even though the PiRate Ratings spread favors SDSU, the Bracketnomics Criteria says FAU will win this game, and it might eventually be by a margin in double figures.
Stat
Miami
UConn
O-RTG
5
3
D-RTG
104
11
SOS
56.7
59.8
3-Pt
36.9
36.3
O-Reb
31.7
38.5
2PT%D
51.6
45.0
FTR
31.0
30.5
R+T Rate
5.8
14.9
Old R+T
10.8
21.4
Marg
7.7
14.4
Win Strk
9 & 7
14 & 6
Pre25
NO
NO
Champ
Co
No
Coach Exp
10 & 1FF
4: 0-4
3 Upper
NO
NO
F/C 20-12
NO
YES
DBLFIG
4
3
OReb
31.7
38.5
OStl
10.5
9.2
OTurn
14.1
15.7
DReb
28.4
25.7
DStl
8.5
9.6
DTurn
15.7
16.5
Reb Marg
2.9
9.4
Stl/G
7.3
6.3
D Stl
5.9
6.6
TO Marg
1.2
0.0
Before the tournament began, we issued our list of which teams had national championship resumes. On the day before the release of all the stats, we mentioned Connecticut, because the Huskies had one of the top two resumes in the criteria. Then, we did something we wish we could do over–we believed that maybe this could be Purdue’s year to break their losing curse. At the same time, we warned you about the Big Ten and their style of play not being conducive to winning in the Big Dance, and we mentioned that disciples of Gene Keady played the wrong style of ball to win in late March. When Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson, it was precisely their inability to force turnovers and get cheap baskets that cost them.
Some of you did follow our secondary advice and went with Connecticut to win the Championship. If you did, then you may still be alive in your bracket pools. We won’t take credit for picking UConn, as they were our secondary pick, but we will kick ourselves all year if the Huskies indeed win it all, since we had been talking about them having a championship resume as far back as late January.
Miami isn’t chopped liver. In fact, ACC teams are the polar opposite of Big Ten teams. The teams in the ACC know how to score quickly and score with cheap baskets. The Hurricanes can force turnovers on UConn and score fast break points. The U has a national championship offense, but their defense does not meet the criteria. UConn has both a national championship offense and defense. Miami’s principle liability is their weakness against preventing shots in the paint. UConn should get a few too many close-in shots in this game and will be more consistent with their offense.
UConn did not win either their regular conference or conference tournament championship, and they were not ranked in the preseason, two things that most national champions have done. UConn has twice won national championships in the 21st Century when they were somewhat of an outlier. The last time they did this, it was when they handily defeated long shot Butler. If they beat Miami, they will be playing another long shot Monday Night.
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Creighton is the slight favorite in this criteria, but it isn’t by much. If not for overall strength of schedule, the Aztecs would have the advantage due to better steal rate and turnover rate, the two criteria that are showing up to be more important this year than an average year. SDSU beat Alabama, because they jumped the passing lanes and won the R+T battle with ease.
Stat
FAU
Kansas St.
O-RTG
26
35
D-RTG
29
27
SOS
50.5
58.5
3-Pt
36.5
34.0
O-Reb
31.4
30.4
2PT%D
44.7
49.1
FTR
28.9
36.2
R+T Rate
8.7
1.6
Old R+T
16.0
6.4
Marg
13.2
6.6
Win Strk
20 & 10
9 & 6
Pre25
NO
NO
Champ
YES
No
Coach Exp
0
0
3 Upper
NO
YES
F/C 20-12
NO
YES
DBLFIG
3
3
OReb
31.4
30.4
OStl
9.5
11.0
OTurn
14.5
17.0
DReb
25.1
29.9
DStl
8.2
10.2
DTurn
15.9
18.0
Reb Marg
5.7
1.4
Stl/G
6.5
7.9
D Stl
5.6
7.3
TO Marg
0.9
0.9
Florida Atlantic overcame Tennessee’s inside advantage in the Sweet 16, but we have seen the Vols’ inconsistent play all year and don’t think it was entirely the Owls’ defense that eliminated Tennessee’s biggest advantage. Kansas State also has the inside advantage, by even more than that enjoyed by UT. This looks like the end of a great mid-major run for FAU, as Kansas State has enough advantage here to make their first Final Four since Tex Winter and his triple post offense guided the Wildcats to the 1964 Final Four.
Stat
Miami
Texas
O-RTG
6
15
D-RTG
104
10
SOS
56.1
60.0
3-Pt
37.0
34.5
O-Reb
31.9
28.2
2PT%D
51.5
47.3
FTR
30.2
30.7
R+T Rate
6.1
3.7
Old R+T
11.0
8.0
Marg
7.7
10.6
Win Strk
9 & 7
7 & 6
Pre25
NO
YES
Champ
Co
YES
Coach Exp
10 & 1FF
0
3 Upper
NO
YES
F/C 20-12
NO
NO
DBLFIG
4
4
OReb
31.9
28.2
OStl
10.4
11.2
OTurn
14.0
14.3
DReb
28.4
29.1
DStl
8.5
8.1
DTurn
15.7
19.5
Reb Marg
3.0
-0.3
Stl/G
7.2
7.9
D Stl
5.9
5.7
TO Marg
1.3
4.3
On paper, this is an exciting tossup that could go down to the last minute. However, there is a huge question mark in this game. Texas may not have the services of 6 foot 9 inch forward Dylan Disu, who has been the Longhorns’ best player down the stretch. They dismissed Xavier with Disu playing less than a minute before further injuring his leg.
If Disu cannot play, Miami can ramp up the tempo in this game and wear Texas down. Without Disu, Texas has a major liability on the glass, and they will have to force a lot of turnovers to make up for Miami’s potential extra shot attempts.
Jim Larranaga has taken a team to the Final Four once before, and he did so with a low major team beating the overall number one seed to get there. Miami made it this far last year. It looks favorable for Hurricane Warnings to go up in Houston next week.
Stat
Connecticut
Gonzaga
O-RTG
3
1
D-RTG
13
73
SOS
58.5
57.5
3-Pt
36.4
38.6
O-Reb
38.9
31.8
2PT%D
45.0
50.3
FTR
30.9
33.6
R+T Rate
15.0
11.4
Old R+T
21.2
18.8
Marg
14.0
13.9
Win Strk
14 & 6
12 & 11
Pre25
NO
YES
Champ
No
YES
Coach Exp
4: 0-4
22 & 2FF
3 Upper
NO
YES
F/C 20-12
YES
YES
DBLFIG
3
4
OReb
38.9
31.8
OStl
9.3
10.2
OTurn
15.9
13.1
DReb
25.9
25.0
DStl
9.8
7.3
DTurn
16.6
16.5
Reb Marg
9.4
5.9
Stl/G
6.4
7.4
D Stl
6.7
5.3
TO Marg
-0.1
2.6
As far as the Bracketnomics are concerned, this may be the real National Championship Game. The two best offenses left in the field and two of the three best overall face off. But, UConn also has a top 20 defense, which is how most National Champions look–top 10 offense and top 20 defense.
Still, this game is not a slam dunk easy win for UConn. Gonzaga has a coach with a lot more tournament experience with two recent Final Fours and with players that have played in the National Championship on this roster. Gonzaga was a pre-season top 25 team, while the Huskies were not, and almost every past national champion was ranked in the pre-season.
The one stat that really concerns us is the turnover margin. As we told you above, turnover margin and steals have been considerably more important this year than an average year. UConn has a negative turnover margin and has a propensity to be a little too gracious throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys. If Gonzaga can get 8 or more steals and force 14 or more turnovers in this game, they will likely win. If the Huskies can limit Bulldog steals to 6 or less, and they commit 12 or fewer turnovers, they will win. If it’s somewhere in between, this game could come down to a last second shot or even overtime.
The opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament was not so wonderful for the PiRate Ratings Bracketnomic System, as two of the projected Final Four fell out. Of the 16 teams we projected, 9 are still alive, including Connecticut, who we selected as an alternative pick for the title if you were afraid to go with a Big Ten team.
We didn’t listen to our own advice. The numbers showed Purdue to be the top team according to the Bracketnomics, but we spent multiple paragraphs telling you why Purdue’s style of play, as well as any team out of the past that was coached by a Gene Keady disciple, was not the way to win the NCAA Tournament. We thought it was time for that trend to end, but in the end, Purdue couldn’t handle the pressure defense of #16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson, and the Boilermakers became the second #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed.
There are still multiple teams remaining in the Sweet 16 that we stated had most of the resume of a national champion. Maybe you took our stats and made your own picks, like many have in the past. We know that many of you are better at interpreting this data than we are.
Many bracket pools allow people to redo their brackets each weekend, so here are the sweet 16 matchups with the bracketnomics data. If you don’t know what each item is, refer back to the Bracketnomics Primer of Monday, March, 13.
Everything points Alabama’s way in this game, as the Aztecs will have difficulty matching the Tide point-for-point if the first half possessions for both teams tops 35. SDSU’s only chance in this game is to force Alabama into making double digit turnovers in the first 25-28 minutes of the game.
Stat
Creighton
Princeton
O-RTG
23
100
D-RTG
13
96
SOS
59.40
49.80
3-Pt
35.8
33.9
O-Reb
25.4
29.6
2PT%D
45.8
47.0
FTR
28.6
30.7
R+T Rate
0.1
6.3
Old R+T
8.2
13.5
Marg
8.2
7.6
Win Strk
8 & 6
8 & 6
Pre25
YES
NO
Champ
No
YES
Coach Exp
10: 1S16
1: 0-1
3 Upper
NO
YES
F/C 20-12
YES
YES
DBLFIG
5
3
OReb
25.4
29.6
OStl
7.4
7.1
OTurn
14.8
15.3
DReb
23.5
22.2
DStl
8.7
9.0
DTurn
12.5
13.4
Reb Marg
3.7
6.6
Stl/G
5.1
4.9
D Stl
6.1
6.3
TO Marg
-1.7
-1.9
Princeton has a small chance to win this game. They can dominate the glass and the inside game. If they can hold Creighton’s 3-point shooting under its normal rate and get 8 or more second chance points, they can make this game close. Creighton has about an 80-85% chance of winning, not a sure thing, but almost.
Stat
FAU
Tennessee
O-RTG
29
60
D-RTG
34
1
SOS
50.30
59.40
3-Pt
36.7
33.0
O-Reb
31.2
36.4
2PT%D
44.9
44.8
FTR
28.8
31.0
R+T Rate
9.4
14.9
Old R+T
16.4
19.9
Marg
13.3
13.4
Win Strk
20 & 9
8 & 5
Pre25
NO
YES
Champ
YES
No
Coach Exp
0
26:1FF28
3 Upper
NO
YES
F/C 20-12
NO
NO
DBLFIG
3
3
OReb
31.2
36.4
OStl
9.7
12.5
OTurn
14.4
15.4
DReb
24.6
26.6
DStl
8.1
10.1
DTurn
16.1
19.4
Reb Marg
5.8
6.9
Stl/G
6.7
8.3
D Stl
5.6
6.7
TO Marg
1.0
2.6
This game is all over the map. FAU has the superior offense, but Tennessee has the #1 defense. Tennessee’s schedule is considerably stronger, so the Vols make it through the most important factors as the favorite.
Tennessee is still missing one of their top players in Zakai Zeigler, and the Vols are a hot and cold team. When they are hot, they can beat anybody in the nation, like they did against Alabama. When, they are cold, they lose by double digits to Colorado.
FAU is a consistently good team, but the Owls face an uphill battle in this game. The Vols should advance to the Elite 8.
Stat
Kan. St.
Mich. St.
O-RTG
47
37
D-RTG
17
31
SOS
58.30
60.50
3-Pt
33.6
38.7
O-Reb
30.5
27.3
2PT%D
49.2
48.2
FTR
36.6
26.9
R+T Rate
1.5
1.0
Old R+T
6.5
7.8
Marg
6.6
3.2
Win Strk
9 & 6
7
Pre25
NO
NO
Champ
No
No
Coach Exp
0
24: 8 FFNC
3 Upper
YES
YES
F/C 20-12
YES
NO
DBLFIG
3
3
OReb
30.5
27.3
OStl
10.9
7.2
OTurn
17.3
14.4
DReb
29.8
25.2
DStl
10.4
8.4
DTurn
18.1
13.2
Reb Marg
1.6
2.9
Stl/G
7.8
4.8
D Stl
7.4
5.5
TO Marg
0.8
-0.9
This is an interesting match up. Neither team has a definite advantage. In a typical year, Michigan State would have a sizable rebounding advantage, but this year has been quite different. Kansas State has the inside advantage in this one.
Michigan State won’t force turnovers on the Wildcats, and when KSU has lost this year, the other team usually forces more turnovers on the Wildcats than they normally commit. We’re going with Kansas State in a close one.
Stat
Houston
Miami
O-RTG
9
11
D-RTG
4
108
SOS
56.40
55.90
3-Pt
34.2
36.8
O-Reb
37.4
32.3
2PT%D
42.9
51.6
FTR
28.8
30.2
R+T Rate
16.4
6.5
Old R+T
23.5
11.1
Marg
18.3
7.5
Win Strk
13 & 9
9 & 7
Pre25
YES
NO
Champ
YES
Co
Coach Exp
18 & 2FF
10 & 1FF
3 Upper
YES
NO
F/C 20-12
YES
NO
DBLFIG
4
4
OReb
37.4
32.3
OStl
12.5
10.6
OTurn
13.0
14.2
DReb
27.9
28.4
DStl
8.4
8.7
DTurn
18.6
15.8
Reb Marg
7.5
3.1
Stl/G
8.1
7.3
D Stl
5.4
6.0
TO Marg
3.8
1.2
IF? If Marcus Sasser is healthy enough to play near 100% effectively for 32 minutes, Houston is the clear choice to make it to the Elite 8. A groin injury is a tricky thing, because one wrong move can put the injured player out of commission for a long time. A healthy Sasser makes this game a double-digit win possibility for the Cougars, who would then be one win away from getting a chance to play in the Final Four at home.
If Sasser is unable to play, Miami has the advantage. If Sasser plays at less than full strength, then this game becomes a tossup.
Stat
Xavier
Texas
O-RTG
7
15
D-RTG
64
10
SOS
59.00
60.00
3-Pt
38.9
34.1
O-Reb
30.8
28.5
2PT%D
48.5
47.4
FTR
31.8
30.7
R+T Rate
5.7
3.9
Old R+T
12.8
7.9
Marg
7.4
10.6
Win Strk
11 & 5
6 & 6
Pre25
NO
YES
Champ
No
YES
Coach Exp
11:48|416
1: 0-1
3 Upper
YES
YES
F/C 20-12
YES
NO
DBLFIG
4
4
OReb
30.8
28.5
OStl
9.0
11.2
OTurn
15.1
14.3
DReb
25.2
29.2
DStl
9.6
8.2
DTurn
14.5
19.6
Reb Marg
5.5
-0.3
Stl/G
6.5
7.9
D Stl
6.9
5.8
TO Marg
-0.6
4.3
This is another interesting game. Xavier’s offense is national title-worthy, while their defense is right on the edge of eliminating them. Texas’s offense is just barely outside what most national champions have been rated on the attack side, but their defense is good enough.
The most glaring remaining stat is in coaching experience. Sean Miller has taken 11 past teams to the NCAA Tournament with 4 Elite 8’s and 4 (now 5) Sweet 16’s. Rodney Terry took Fresno St. to one NCAA Tournament and lost in the first game.
We’ve changed our opinion on this game twice. At the time of this writing, we’re going with Texas, but only because Xavier cannot exploit the Longhorns’ liability of handling the ball.
Stat
Arkansas
UConn
O-RTG
51
3
D-RTG
15
14
SOS
59.20
58.30
3-Pt
31.3
36.4
O-Reb
30.6
39.0
2PT%D
47.0
45.4
FTR
39.2
30.9
R+T Rate
5.9
15.6
Old R+T
10.6
21.3
Marg
6.9
13.8
Win Strk
7
14 & 6
Pre25
YES
NO
Champ
NO
No
Coach Exp
5:2E8|1S16
4: 0-4
3 Upper
YES
NO
F/C 20-12
NO
YES
DBLFIG
4
3
OReb
30.6
39.0
OStl
11.9
9.2
OTurn
15.9
15.8
DReb
27.6
25.6
DStl
9.5
9.7
DTurn
17.9
16.8
Reb Marg
2.8
9.3
Stl/G
8.4
6.3
D Stl
6.7
6.6
TO Marg
1.5
0.1
UConn still has the best resume for a potential national champion, but we’re leery of this game. Throwing out all the criteria you see above, there is one big obvious criterion that cannot be overlooked, even if it isn’t part of this system.
Arkansas Coach Eric Musselman is the best college basketball coach in Division I and second best overall in college (Ben McCollum at Northwest Missouri State is the John Wooden of the 21st Century). Muss has taken two consecutive Razorback teams to the Elite 8, even though neither team had Elite 8 talent. This team is missing a key player and played for much of the season missing two key players. But, the more important piece, Nick Smith, is back.
The criteria favors Connecticut by a sizable margin, but give Arkansas a little bonus for Muss on the bench. It means UConn is favored by a little rather than a lot.
Stat
Gonzaga
UCLA
O-RTG
1
21
D-RTG
75
2
SOS
57.20
58.80
3-Pt
38.7
34.3
O-Reb
31.4
33.6
2PT%D
50.6
46.6
FTR
33.8
27.5
R+T Rate
11.0
14.3
Old R+T
18.4
17.5
Marg
14.2
13.9
Win Strk
11 & 11
14 & 12
Pre25
YES
YES
Champ
YES
YES
Coach Exp
22 & 2FF
13: 1FF
3 Upper
YES
YES
F/C 20-12
YES
NO
DBLFIG
4
3
OReb
31.4
33.6
OStl
10.5
12.5
OTurn
12.9
12.9
DReb
25.3
27.7
DStl
7.2
7.0
DTurn
16.7
20.6
Reb Marg
5.4
3.7
Stl/G
7.5
8.4
D Stl
5.2
4.7
TO Marg
3.0
4.6
This is the best of the Sweet 16 games. You have the top offense in the nation going against the #2 defense in the nation. The schedule strengths are close to even, not really enough to tip the scale much.
Gonzaga has the edge in outside shooting, but UCLA has an equal edge on the inside, but not by dominating with a post player, but by having tall guards like Jaime Jacquez and Amari Bailey. Of note, UCLA is quite banged up coming into this game. In addition to not having the services of star swing man Jaylen Clark, big man Adem Bona and sharpshooting guard David Singleton are nursing injuries. A team like UCLA can beat Northwestern with a depleted roster, but asking it to beat Gonzaga is too much. We believe that Bona and Singleton will play and not be 100% effective. All it takes is for Drew Timme to have his typical output, and Gonzaga is in the Elite 8.
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Marjorie Miller Designs
Our favorite handmade jewelry artisan (art critics call her designs “Wearable Masterpieces”)
The Bracket Matrix
The PiRate Ratings (Pi) are included in the best college basketball bracketology site on the Internet. Check out the Bracket Project Blog at: https://bracketproject.blogspot.com/
The PiRate Ratings
See the most current PiRate Ratings and Spreads for college and NFL football
The Pi-Rate Ratings 