The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 19, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 20-24, 2018

Hooray for once.  The PiRate Ratings official picks last week enjoyed a nice winning record, sending the year to date record into positive territory.  It is a small profit, as the return on investment is just 1.92%, but at least it isn’t a red number.  Better yet, our straight picks against the spread or in the totals have a record of 11-6-1 for the season.  It is the exotic picks that have stunk up the joint.  Thus, we will go with just straight picks this week.

Best of all, out special Land Sharps are just torching the books with their selections.  One of the sharps, Buckeye Michelle, has been insane with her picks the last two weeks, and we have received messages from some of our regular subscribers asking for more information about her.  First of all, we are not in the business of matchmaking, so don’t ask.  And, yes, she is an incredibly beautiful 29-year old football fanatic.

One of you actually revealed to us that you know who Stewed Meat is.  Stewed is a real sharp.  Stewed lives in Nevada, and handicapping is Stewed career.  Stewed has shown us something special this week that many people never get the opportunity to see performed–playing the middle against both sides.  We’ll explain more about this at the end.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Selections Against The Spread

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wisconsin Iowa 3.5 Iowa
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 4.5 Coastal Carolina
North Carolina St. Marshall 4.5 North Carolina St.
Maryland Minnesota 3 Minnesota
Stanford Oregon 1.5 Stanford
West Virginia Kansas St. 17 Kansas St.
Chicago Arizona 7 Arizona
Philadelphia Indianapolis 6 Philadelphia
Green Bay Washington 3 Washington

Now for the Land Sharps.  At the present time, this is how each has done so far.

Buckeye Michelle is 9-1 for 90% against the spread and +$790 a 79% ROI

Cal Gal Tiffy is 9-3 for 75% against the spread and +$570 a 47.5% ROI

Friday Dog 13 is 4-2 for 67% against the spread and +$180 a 30% ROI

Stewed Meat is 6-4 for 60% against the spread and +$160 a 16% ROI

Dean 615 is 3-3 for 50% against the spread and -$30 a -5% ROI

If more than one of our expert pickers agree on picking the same game, it must be a strong pick.  You will notice that a couple of games were selected by multiple sharps this week.  You will also notice that a couple of sharps picked against each other.

If you are just tuning in to this feature, the rules are simple.  The 5 participants can select against the margin or going over or under the total for any FBS college football game.  They can select 3, 5,7, or 9 games each week.  We then select the most favorable spread available at oddshark.com.

Here are the Land Sharps Picks For the Week.

Buckeye Michelle

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Wake Forest +8 vs. Notre Dame

Army +32 vs. Oklahoma

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

 

Cal Gal Tiffy

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

South Carolina -2 vs. Vanderbilt

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

UTSA -7 vs. Texas St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Penn St. -28 vs. Illinois

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

Virginia -5 vs. Louisville

Clemson -16 vs. Georgia Tech

TCU -3 vs. Texas

 

Stewed Meat

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Iowa +3.5 vs. Wisconsin

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

Louisville +5.5 vs. Virginia

 

Dean 615

Notre Dame -7 vs. Wake Forest

Michigan St. -4.5 vs. Indiana

USC -3.5 vs. Washington St.

Texas +3.5 vs. TCU

Nebraska +18 vs. Michigan

 

Special Look At Stewed Meat’s Real Life Strategy

Stewed is an expert at “Middling”.  In order to be able to do this, Stewed gets access to playing the early line and then immediately plays one side of a game in which Stewed believes the line is off and will move in the opposite direction of which Stewed originally played.  Then, when the line moves in the opposite direction, Stewed plays the other side

Let’s look at an example.  Let’s say Alabama opens as a 14.5 point favorite over Auburn, and Stewed likes Auburn at this number.  So Stewed wagers on Auburn at +14.5.  During the week, a lot of other people believe 14.5 points are too much for Alabama, and they bet the spread down to 11.5.  Now, Stewed wagers on Alabama at -11.5.

On the surface, you might think this is nuts.  Stewed will have a slim chance of the game ending up at 12, 13, or 14 points in Alabama’s favor, giving Stewed two wins.  In most cases, Stewed will win one and lose one and lose $10 for every $100 wagered on both sides.

However, if you look at the 11-10 odds and do a little mathematical calculations, Stewed only needs to have the game come in at the middle of the extremes one time out of 19 in order to turn a profit, plus Stewed has a Margin of Safety in place, because the most Stewed can lose is 10% on the dollar wagered.

Earlier this week, Stewed Wagered on the following games that have seen a significant line change and then wagered on the other team once the line moved in the other direction.

SMU +12.5 vs. Navy

Navy -7 vs. SMU

 

Ball St. Pk vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky +3 vs. Ball St.

 

Alabama -23.5 vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M +27 vs. Alabama

 

Auburn -24 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas +30 vs. Auburn

If just one of these four games come in with the spread in the middle, Stewed will turn a nice profit.

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September 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 20-24, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cleveland N.Y. Jets 0.1 0.3 0.6 45
Philadelphia Indianapolis 12.3 14.4 11.9 45
Carolina Cincinnati 5.2 4.1 5.2 43
Jacksonville Tennessee 10.4 10.1 11.2 42.5
Atlanta New Orleans 3.5 3.5 3.7 45
Baltimore Denver 5.9 6.9 6.6 44.5
Houston N.Y. Giants 5.4 5.4 5.1 43
Miami Oakland 7.8 6.8 8.2 42.5
Washington Green Bay 2.1 -0.2 2.2 45
Minnesota Buffalo 16.0 16.3 16.2 38
Kansas City San Francisco 9.5 9.4 9.9 49
L.A. Rams L.A. Chargers 6.7 7.3 7.3 47
Arizona Chicago -1.6 -2.3 -2.8 37.5
Seattle Dallas 3.7 3.2 3.7 41.5
Detroit New England -3.3 -4.3 -3.2 47
Tampa Bay Pittsburgh -5.2 -5.3 -3.9 45.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.4 105.1 104.2 104.6 21 1-1
Miami 99.2 98.6 99.6 99.1 21.5 2-0
N. Y. Jets 98.7 98.5 98.9 98.7 23 1-1
Buffalo 91.4 91.3 91.0 91.2 18 0-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.1 105.0 104.3 104.8 22.5 0-1-1
Baltimore 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.5 23 1-1
Cincinnati 99.7 100.3 99.9 100.0 21.5 2-0
Cleveland 95.8 95.8 96.5 96.0 22 0-1-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 104.3 104.2 104.7 104.4 21.5 2-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24 0-2
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21 1-1
Indianapolis 95.0 93.1 94.8 94.3 22 1-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.3 105.7 105.7 105.6 25.5 2-0
LA Chargers 101.1 101.9 101.4 101.5 22 1-1
Denver 98.3 98.0 97.7 98.0 21.5 2-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-2
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.2 102.5 101.8 102.2 23 1-1
Dallas 99.6 99.6 99.3 99.5 19.5 1-1
Washington 99.6 98.4 99.4 99.1 21.5 1-1
N.Y. Giants 96.8 96.7 96.8 96.8 19 0-2
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.4 104.5 104.2 104.4 20 1-0-1
Green Bay 100.5 101.6 100.2 100.7 23.5 1-0-1
Chicago 99.3 99.0 100.0 99.4 18.5 1-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 26 0-2
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.6 104.4 21.5 1-1
New Orleans 103.4 103.3 103.4 103.4 23.5 1-1
Carolina 101.9 101.4 102.1 101.8 21.5 1-1
Tampa Bay 97.9 97.7 98.4 98.0 23 2-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 109.2 108.7 108.6 25 2-0
Seattle 100.3 99.8 100.0 100.0 22 0-2
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 1-1
Arizona 94.7 93.7 94.2 94.2 19 0-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Jacksonville
3 New England
4 Cincinnati
5 Miami
6 L.A. Chargers

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Tampa Bay
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta

 

Wildcard Round
L.A. Chargers over New England
Miami over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Green Bay over Tampa Bay

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Miami
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
Jacksonville over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Minnesota

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Jacksonville

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Tulsa 8.4 9.6 8.3

 

Friday September 21
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Central Florida Florida Atlantic 17.3 16.5 16.6
Illinois Penn St. -26.8 -23.9 -28.2
USC Washington St. 2.8 1.8 3.1

 

Saturday September 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Akron 18.5 15.2 17.5
Marshall North Carolina St. -16.0 -12.5 -14.4
Massachusetts Charlotte 10.2 9.7 11.0
Indiana Michigan St. -20.5 -18.8 -20.5
Maryland Minnesota -2.4 -3.4 -3.3
Ball St. Western Kentucky 1.6 0.6 -0.2
Purdue Boston College -10.2 -9.0 -11.1
Syracuse Connecticut 33.9 32.3 34.3
Miami (Fla.) Florida Int’l. 32.4 26.6 31.4
North Carolina Pittsburgh 0.8 0.0 0.6
Florida St. Northern Illinois 13.6 11.8 13.0
Bowling Green Miami (O) -3.6 -5.3 -4.1
Ohio St. Tulane 37.3 34.7 38.4
Georgia Tech Clemson -18.0 -15.8 -19.2
Cincinnati Ohio U 1.8 2.2 1.0
South Florida East Carolina 15.4 18.9 17.0
Wake Forest Notre Dame -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Toledo Nevada 9.0 10.8 9.1
Virginia Louisville 4.8 5.2 4.4
Georgia St. Western Michigan -11.4 -10.3 -11.3
Rutgers Buffalo -2.3 -5.5 -5.7
Oregon St. Arizona -10.1 -10.8 -11.6
Oregon Stanford -5.6 -3.0 -5.5
Tennessee Florida -10.9 -8.8 -12.0
Kentucky Mississippi St. -12.1 -10.6 -12.9
Michigan Nebraska 26.9 27.2 29.8
West Virginia Kansas St. 9.5 10.0 9.8
Ole Miss Kent St. 26.5 25.3 28.1
Southern Miss. Rice 14.9 15.1 16.7
Auburn Arkansas 24.7 26.1 28.6
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 14.7 14.3 16.3
SMU Navy -1.6 -5.2 -2.3
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 3.7 2.6 4.1
Arkansas St. UNLV 2.6 2.3 3.9
Texas TCU 0.2 -0.4 0.4
Oklahoma Army 29.5 27.8 30.2
LSU Louisiana Tech 23.0 20.4 22.9
Baylor Kansas 4.4 3.3 5.9
Vanderbilt South Carolina -7.1 -5.2 -6.3
Memphis South Alabama 26.8 27.0 27.3
Utah St. Air Force 13.2 14.6 15.3
UTEP New Mexico St. -3.9 -3.1 -4.5
UTSA Texas St. 11.1 12.4 12.5
UL-Monroe Troy -1.2 -2.9 -2.0
Old Dominion Virginia Tech -34.2 -29.7 -34.3
Liberty North Texas -17.1 -21.5 -17.8
Missouri Georgia -14.7 -12.5 -14.9
Alabama Texas A&M 28.9 28.0 30.4
Iowa Wisconsin 0.3 0.6 0.1
Washington Arizona St. 22.5 21.5 25.4
San Diego St. Eastern Michigan 10.9 10.1 11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Colorado St. Illinois St. 10.5
Central Michigan Maine 5.0
Duke UNC-Central 49.9
Appalachian St. Gardner-Webb 40.9
BYU McNeese St. 19.0
Houston Texas Southern 45.6
Hawaii Duquesne 27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2
2 Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4
3 Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1
5 Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7
6 Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1
7 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
8 Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0
9 Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9
10 Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8
11 Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7
12 Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4
13 Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6
14 Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3
15 Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3
16 Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3
17 Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0
18 Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9
19 Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7
20 L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4
21 Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5
23 Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4
24 Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3
25 N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3
26 Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1
27 Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0
28 S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7
29 Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7
30 West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5
31 Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8
32 Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6
33 Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3
34 Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4
35 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
36 Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8
37 Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4
38 Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4
39 California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3
40 Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3
41 Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2
42 U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0
43 Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6
45 Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5
46 Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2
48 Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7
49 Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5
50 Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2
51 Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1
52 Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0
54 BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6
55 N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5
56 Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0
59 Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0
60 Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4
61 San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7
62 Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6
63 Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4
64 Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2
65 N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0
66 Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9
67 South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4
68 Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8
69 Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7
70 Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2
71 Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3
72 Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1
73 Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1
74 Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8
75 Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6
76 Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2
79 Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0
80 Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5
81 Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4
82 U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1
83 Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0
84 Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6
86 Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3
87 Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7
88 Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2
89 Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9
90 Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6
91 Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8
92 Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7
93 Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1
94 Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0
95 SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8
96 U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7
98 Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8
99 U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7
100 Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7
101 Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6
102 Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2
103 New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6
104 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9
105 UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8
106 Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7
107 East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3
108 Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0
109 W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5
110 Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3
111 Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2
112 Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8
113 Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5
114 Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7
115 South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2
116 U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2
117 Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
119 Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7
120 Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5
121 Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5
122 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0
123 Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2
124 San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2
125 Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7
126 Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9
127 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4
128 Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6
129 Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4 0-0 3-0
Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3 0-0 1-2
Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7 0-0 3-0
East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-1 2-1
Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4 0-0 2-1
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 2-1
Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3 0-0 1-2
Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1 0-0 1-2
SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8 0-0 0-3
AAC Averages 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0 0-0 3-0
Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3 1-0 3-0
N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2 1-0 3-0
Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1 0-1 2-1
Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2 0-2 1-2
Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2 0-0 2-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3 0-0 2-1
Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7 0-0 3-0
Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8 0-1 1-2
Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0 1-0 2-1
Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0 0-0 2-1
N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9 0-0 3-0
T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5 0-0 2-1
West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5 0-0 2-0
Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6 0-0 2-1
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-1 0-2
Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7 0-0 2-1
Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8 0-0 2-1
Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4 0-0 2-1
Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9 0-0 2-1
Big 12 Averages 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1 1-0 3-0
Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0 0-0 2-1
Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9 0-0 3-0
Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8 0-0 1-1
Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4 0-0 2-1
Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8 0-0 3-0
Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0 0-0 2-1
Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3 0-0 3-0
Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4 1-0 1-2
Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5 0-0 3-0
Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2 0-1 0-3
Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1 0-0 0-2
Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6 0-0 2-1
Big Ten Averages 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7 0-0 2-1
Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7 0-0 1-2
Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2 1-0 2-1
W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5 0-0 0-3
Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1 0-2 0-3
Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9 1-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5 0-0 3-0
Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8 0-0 2-0
U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2 0-0 0-3
Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6 0-0 0-3
CUSA Averages 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6 x 3-0
BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6 x 2-1
Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2 x 2-1
Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3 x 1-3
Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4 x 0-4
Indep. Averages 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6 1-0 3-0
Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6 0-0 1-1
Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8 0-0 0-3
Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5 0-0 1-2
Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5 1-0 1-2
Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9 0-1 2-1
Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7 0-0 1-2
Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0 0-1 0-3
Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7 0-0 1-2
MAC Averages 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5 0-0 2-1
Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7 0-0 2-1
Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0 0-0 2-1
U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7 0-0 2-1
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 3-1
San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7 1-0 2-1
Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4 1-0 3-0
Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7 0-0 3-0
Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4 0-0 3-0
California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7 0-0 1-2
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0 0-1 1-2
Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6 0-0 2-1
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 3-0
Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6 0-0 1-2
U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4 1-0 3-0
Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-0 3-0
S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3 0-1 2-1
Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3 1-0 3-0
Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0 0-0 2-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8 0-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2 1-0 3-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1 0-0 3-0
Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7 0-1 2-1
L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4 1-0 3-0
Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1 0-0 2-1
Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1 0-1 2-1
Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2 0-0 1-2
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4 0-0 1-1
Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8 0-0 2-1
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0 0-0 2-1
Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7 0-0 2-1
UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8 0-0 2-1
South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2 1-0 1-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5 0-0 1-1
Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6 0-1 1-2
Sun Belt Averages 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
3 B12 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
4 BTEN 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
6 AAC 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
7 MWC 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
8 IND 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
11 SUN 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

This Week’s Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. South Florida
  2. Central Florida
  3. North Texas
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. [Northern Illinois]
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Marshall Western Michigan
Frisco AAC MAC [Utah] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Buffalo Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [BYU]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Army] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Wake Forest Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech California
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Boston College Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. South Carolina
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Washington
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Syracuse Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oregon North Texas
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Texas A&M
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Mississippi St.
PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Penn St. Georgia
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Clemson
Champ. Game Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Sweet 16 Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Washington State at USC  10:30 PM  on ESPN

USC has dropped consecutive road games, the most previous not being all that close.  With a true freshman quarterback and his top receiver also being a true freshman, can the Trojans score enough points against the Air Raid offense of the Pirate, Mike Leach.

Washington State is 3-0 but has yet to face strong competition, but if the Cougars can win this game, they become a contender for the Pac-12 North Division title.

Saturday
12:00 Noon

Georgia at Missouri  ESPN

Georgia should win this game by playing smashmouth football against a Missouri defense that just gave up a lot of points and yards against Purdue.  However, the Tigers may have overlooked an 0-2 team.  Still, Georgia looks invincible at least until they travel to the Bayou later in the season.

Minnesota at Maryland  BTN

All of a sudden, the Big Ten West looks open for more than one team.  Minnesota is a silent 3-0, and a win in College Park could find the Gophers ranked and in contention for the division flag.

Maryland’s win over Texas would have meant a lot more had they not gotten their Terrapin shell handed to them by lowly Temple.  The Terps must win this game to have any chance at becoming bowl eligible.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest ABC

Notre Dame is a very soft 3-0, and they have played all three games at home.  This will be the Irish’s first road game and first ACC opponent of the season.  They play at a Wake Forest team that made a valiant comeback that came up a bit short against Boston College.  Notre Dame must go 12-0 or 11-1 with a lot of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.

3:30 PM

Clemson at Georgia Tech ABC

We are not going to tell you that this game should be close, but…..

Clemson has not really fired on all cylinders yet.  It can be hard to play two separate offensive game plans every week, and the two quarterback system may prove to be a liability at some point.

The Tigers have been upset both of the last two years in conference play.  We don’t expect this to be one of those games, but we are anxious to see how CU uses their two QBs in conference play.

Georgia Tech’s multiple option offense should be forced into more passing situations against the top defensive front in the nation, but should Clemson’s offense not sustain a good number of drives, the Tigers may give up some points in the second half.

Kansas St. at West Virginia ESPN

West Virginia missed Saturday’s game, and so far teams that had games cancelled have not been all that sharp.  They face a Kansas State team that is going to need to pick up an upset or two to reach bowl eligibility this year.  The Mountaineers need to pick up a statement win in conference play to strike fear in the Oklahoma’s, Oklahoma State’s, and TCU’s.

Texas A&M at Alabama CBS

This week, the Crimson Tide have done something that has not been done in 17 years.  At the end of the 2001 season, National Champion Miami of Florida rated 9.6 points ahead of #2 Oregon.  Alabama is the first team since to be more than a touchdown ahead of the number two team in our ratings.

At this point, we’re not sure the Buffalo Bills could beat Alabama at New Era Field in the snow.  Alabama looked as good if not better than the 1995 Nebraska team that won the national championship with ease.

What makes this game so inviting is that Texas A&M played Clemson a couple weeks ago.  In that game, the Aggies looked like they belonged on the same field with a top 10 team.  If Alabama makes this another laugher, that will tell us all just how far ahead of another potential playoff team they have advanced.

TCU at Texas Fox

These teams don’t particularly care much for each other, and with TCU coming into this game with doubts, while the Longhorns are sky high, it should be quite interesting.  Prior last Saturday, TCU looked like a cinch to win this game according to the ratings.  After the ‘Horns clobbered USC and TCU blew up in a four-minute stretch against Ohio State, this game becomes a toss-up in the ratings.

What’s up for grabs in this game is a chance to become a key contender for the number two spot in the conference standings, which in the Big 12 will get you in the Conference Championship Game.

4 PM

South Carolina at Vanderbilt SEC

South Carolina is another team that had a game cancelled unexpectedly due to the weather.  They have not played since Georgia mutilated them in Columbia.  At this point, the Gamecocks are playing for a Citrus Bowl bid, as Georgia is not going to lose two conference games.

Vanderbilt did everything but outscore Notre Dame in South Bend, Saturday.  The Commodores outgained the Irish by 40 yards, but they suffered a loss of at least 11 points due not being able to hang onto the ball.  If the Commodores can come out with a chip on their shoulders, this can be a close game that could be decided in the final minutes.  However, as long time Commodore fans know, Vanderbilt has been known to come out flat and not show up the week after they experienced a moral victory.

7 PM

Florida at Tennessee ESPN

The winner of this game will earn a bowl bid this year.  That’s more than enough to make a game important, but this is the first chance for two new coaches to get the upper hand over their rival in this big rivalry game.

Tennessee’s defense has looked strong the last two weeks against an FCS team and the #130 FBS team.  How will they look against a better than average SEC offense?  Better yet, if you can only score 24 points at home against UTEP, how are you going to score enough to beat the Gators?

Mississippi St. at Kentucky ESPN2

One of these two teams will be 4-0 after this game, almost assuredly ranked in the top 25, and a serious contender for the Citrus or even Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.

The win over Florida in Gainesville is looking mighty good for the Wildcats, while Mississippi State looked a lot like Penn State in their last two games, which shouldn’t surprise many people that know that Coach Joe Moorhead was the offensive coordinator in Happy Valley.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. FS1

After getting pasted by Ole Miss in week one, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury was square in the middle of a hot seat in Lubbock.  The 63-point showing in a win over Houston has cooled the seat a bit, but the Red Raiders have an uphill climb to find four more wins and get bowl eligible.  Anything short of a bowl bid would most likely be the end of the Kingsbury era.

Oklahoma State looked like a playoff contender in their comfortable win over Boise State.  The Cowboys look like the top contender to their rival Sooners in the Big 12, and if they slow down the Red Raiders and hold them to 28 points or less, while winning by double digits, OSU could move on to a 9-0 start when they go to Norman in November.

 

7:30 PM

Michigan St. at Indiana BTN

Michigan State has been a major disappointment to start this season.  The Spartans had the most experience returning in FBS football this year, off a team that won 10 games last year.  A much closer than expected opening win over Utah State was followed by a loss at Arizona State.  After a week off, they now find themselves travelling into a potential ambush in Bloomington.

Indiana is 3-0 for the first time since 2015 and just the second time in the last nine seasons.  The Hoosiers look like a potential bowl eligible squad, and they basically need to pull off one conference upset to get to 3-6 in the league and guarantee six wins.  Their rebuilt defense is looking strong enough to keep them in this game, and if MSU hasn’t snapped out of their funk, the Hoosiers could surprise and move to 4-0.  The last three times IU began 4-0, they made it to a bowl game.

8:00 PM

Stanford at Oregon ABC

This may be the top game of the weekend.  The winner of this game will be the co-contender with Washington and possibly Washington State for the Pac-12 North flag.  Neither team has been exceptionally strong so far, and Stanford’s win over USC lost a lot of its oomph when USC was clobbered by Texas.  The key to this game may be the health of Bryce Love.  Love did not play against UC-Davis after rushing for 136 yards against USC.  Last year, he torched Oregon with 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon’s defense against the run has looked solid this year, while the Ducks’ passing game behind Justin Herbert has been spectacular at times.  The Ducks have had this game circled on their schedule since Spring practice.  The Cardinal have embarrassed the Ducks with consecutive slaughters the last two seasons, and the Ducks will be inspired to shut down Stanford’s running game and force the Cardinal out of their game plan.

8:30 PM

Wisconsin at Iowa Fox

If Wisconsin continues to look lifeless on offense for 20 minutes per game, the Badgers are not going to win the Big Ten West.  They are in a precarious position having to come to Iowa City for a prime time game, where the Hawkeyes enjoy an incredible home field advantage.

Iowa rarely puts up flashy offensive yardage numbers.  But, when you limit opponents to 42 rushing yards and 209 total yards per game, you can win by scoring 24 points and gaining 380 total yards.  They gang tackle and rarely let an opponent get many yards after contact.

10:30 PM

Arizona St. at Washington ESPN

The late game on ESPN is usually exciting, because it involves two teams with wide open offenses from the West Coast.  Also, frequently, these teams cannot play a lot of defense.  This mold was broken Saturday night, when in Washington’s win over Utah in Salt Lake City, the Huskies looked more like their 1959 and 1960 teams that went 10-1.  UW gained just 330 yards and gave up 261 to the Utes.

Arizona State did nothing on the ground against San Diego State, and if the Sun Devils don’t correct this Saturday night, they will get pasted in Seattle.  The ASU passing game cannot pass for 300 yards against the Huskies’ secondary, so if UW can limit ASU’s running game, this could be another one of those 1960-style defensive victories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 13-17, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:56 pm

We received a lot of comments last week from regular readers to this site that know how to contact us through another site.  We tend to keep our comments sections closed, because it becomes a task to monitor it for stuff that does not need to appear here.

The comments had nothing to do with our own picks last week.  We introduced five guest pickers, three of them members of the fairer sex, and overall, they had quite a successful week.

By far the overwhelming amount of responses were aimed at Buckeye Michelle.  The Ohio Transplant to the Sunny South merely went 5-0 picking 5 underdogs, and we received all kinds of comments pertaining to her, including a couple of marriage proposals.

Friday Dog 13 went 3-0 picking three prohibitive favorites that won by even larger scores than the line they were asked to cover.

Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2 in her seven picks, again, a very successful week that equates to a 56% Return on Investment.

Stewed Meat narrowly missed having a winning week, as Stewed went 2-3.  Bringing up the rear at 1-2 was Dean 615.

What about our own picks?  We suffered a lot of near misses and finished the week losing $90 imaginary after wagering $1,100 and going 5-6.  For the years, after two weeks, we are down $220 on a total of $1,700 wagered in our pretend bank account, so we are off to a bad year so far.

Just remember, all the picks you receive here this week and every week are free, and you should consider them worth exactly what you pay for them.

First, here are the PiRate’s official selections for the week.

Straight Spreads and Totals Selections–7

Favorite Underdog Spread/Total Pick
Army Hawaii           6 Army
Baylor Duke          6.5 Duke
Minnesota Miami (Ohio)          13 Minnesota
Denver Oakland          46 Under
Washington Indianapolis          47 Under
Cincinnati Baltimore           1 Baltimore
Dallas N.Y. Giants           3 Dallas

10-point Teaser Parlays–2

If you are unfamiliar with 10-point teasers, you can move the line by 10 points in your favor and play at less favorable odds than if you wager a straight wager against the spread or total.  By combining more than one game into a parlay, you can adjust the odds.  A 10-point teaser using three games makes the odds the same as wagering a straight wager.  You put up $11 of your money against $10 of the books, or what is referred to as -110 (You wager $110 versus the book wagering $100).

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Florida Colorado St. 31 Colorado St.
Texas USC 13.5 USC
Boston College Wake Forest 15 Wake Forest

 

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indiana Ball St. 4 Indiana
Penn St. Kent St. 24.5 Penn St.
Wisconsin BYU 11 Wisconsin

The Land Sharps

Now for our special sharps–our 5 guest pickers.  They have been tasked with selecting 3, 5, 7, or 9 college games each week.  None of the 5 know what the other 4 are picking, so in some cases, more than one guest is picking the same game, and even though it did not happen this week, we are sure that at some point, they could be on opposite sides of the same game.

We search for the best available line at oddshark.com.

Buckeye Michelle (5-0 for the season)

Syracuse + 3 1/2 vs. Florida St.

LSU +10 vs. Auburn

Duke +6 1/2 vs. Baylor

San Diego St. +5 1/2 vs. Arizona St.

Toledo +10 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

Friday Dog 13 (3-0 for the season)

Missouri -6 vs. Purdue

Tennessee -30 1/2 vs. UTEP

Virginia -3 1/2 vs. Ohio

 

Cal Gal Tiffany  (5-2 for the season)

Florida Int’l. -4 vs. U Mass.

Army -6 vs. Hawaii

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

Washington – 6 1/2 vs. Utah

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Stewed Meat (2-3 for the season)

Colorado St. +20 1/2 vs. Florida

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

Oregon St. +3 1/2 vs. Nevada

Washington -6 1/2 vs. Utah

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

 

Dean 615 (1-2 for the season)

Notre Dame -14 vs. Vanderbilt

North Texas +7 vs. Arkansas

TCU +14 vs. Ohio St.

 

 

 

September 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 2: September 13-17, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Week Number: 2
Date of Games: September 13-17
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Cincinnati Baltimore -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 43.5
Washington Indianapolis 10.9 12.3 11.5 44.5
Atlanta Carolina 4.7 4.9 4.5 42
Green Bay Minnesota -1.1 0.1 -1.4 42
Buffalo L.A. Chargers -5.5 -6.3 -5.7 39
Tennessee Houston 0.2 0.4 0.1 46
Pittsburgh Kansas City 4.4 4.2 3.4 46.5
N.Y. Jets Miami 5.1 5.8 5.2 45
Tampa Bay Philadelphia -2.3 -3.4 -1.3 46
New Orleans Cleveland 12.7 12.8 12.4 46.5
L.A. Rams Arizona 11.9 13.9 12.9 45
San Francisco Detroit 3.7 4.4 3.8 49
Jacksonville New England 0.8 -0.3 1.0 41.5
Denver Oakland 6.8 6.0 6.1 42.5
Dallas N.Y. Giants 5.3 5.4 5.0 39.5
Chicago Seattle 1.2 1.1 1.9 40.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 106.1 105.3 105.6 20 1-0
N. Y. Jets 99.8 99.8 100.2 99.9 23.5 1-0
Miami 97.8 97.0 98.0 97.6 21.5 1-0
Buffalo 92.2 92.1 92.0 92.1 18 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.4 105.4 104.7 105.2 22 0-0-1
Baltimore 102.3 103.1 102.6 102.7 23 1-0
Cincinnati 98.6 99.1 98.6 98.8 20.5 1-0
Cleveland 95.0 94.9 95.5 95.1 22 0-0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.1 102.9 103.3 103.1 21.5 1-0
Houston 99.2 99.2 98.9 99.1 24.5 0-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.0 96.5 96.8 21.5 0-1
Indianapolis 93.6 91.4 93.1 92.7 22.5 0-1
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.0 104.3 104.3 104.2 24.5 1-0
LA Chargers 100.6 101.4 100.7 100.9 21 0-1
Denver 98.6 98.3 98.0 98.3 21.5 1-0
Oakland 94.8 95.3 94.9 95.0 21 0-1
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.7 103.3 102.3 102.8 23 1-0
Washington 101.5 100.6 101.6 101.2 22 1-0
Dallas 99.5 99.5 99.2 99.4 20 0-1
N.Y. Giants 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 19.5 0-1
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.5 19.5 1-0
Green Bay 100.4 101.6 100.0 100.6 22.5 1-0
Chicago 99.0 98.6 99.6 99.1 18.5 0-1
Detroit 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.0 25.5 0-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 104.7 104.7 104.9 104.8 24.5 0-1
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.4 104.2 21 0-1
Carolina 102.1 101.6 102.3 102.0 21 1-0
Tampa Bay 97.4 96.9 97.9 97.4 23 1-0
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 105.7 106.8 106.4 106.3 25.5 1-0
Seattle 100.9 100.5 100.7 100.7 22 0-1
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5 0-1
Arizona 96.3 95.5 95.9 95.9 19.5 0-1

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Jacksonville
4 Baltimore
5 Pittsburgh
6 New York Jets
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 Philadelphia
4 Carolina
5 Green Bay
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
N.Y. Jets over Jacksonville
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Washington
Green Bay over Carolina
Divisional Round
New England over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over Kansas City
L.A. Rams over Green Bay
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Conference Championship
New England over Baltimore
L.A. Rams over Minnesota
Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 3

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wake Forest Boston College -6.6 -5.7 -9.3

 

Friday September 14
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Memphis Georgia St. 29.4 28.6 29.4

 

Saturday September 15
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tennessee UTEP 31.7 28.9 31.8
Indiana Ball St. 16.8 13.2 16.6
Maryland Temple 15.9 14.3 14.8
Florida Int’l. Massachusetts -2.0 0.7 -2.7
Toledo Miami (Fla.) -17.1 -13.1 -16.6
Army Hawaii 20.9 19.0 22.6
Penn St. Kent St. 42.6 38.1 43.4
North Carolina Central Florida -9.3 -10.2 -10.2
Charlotte Old Dominion -4.0 -6.0 -3.9
Syracuse Florida St. 0.5 -0.4 -0.3
Iowa St. Oklahoma -9.6 -10.3 -10.9
Nebraska Troy 13.5 10.4 9.3
Kansas Rutgers 3.3 3.1 3.2
Virginia Tech East Carolina 33.5 33.8 34.3
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech -6.6 -5.9 -7.0
Notre Dame Vanderbilt 22.1 17.4 20.3
Virginia Ohio U 9.9 8.8 7.1
Michigan SMU 35.4 35.3 37.8
Appalachian St. Southern Miss. 14.8 13.1 15.6
Oklahoma St. Boise St. 0.4 -1.0 -0.5
Wisconsin BYU 25.2 21.6 24.3
North Carolina St. West Virginia 4.6 4.9 4.8
Minnesota Miami (O) 20.5 17.7 19.3
Auburn LSU 13.4 11.8 15.3
Illinois South Florida -1.7 -5.1 -3.8
Northern Illinois Central Michigan 15.6 13.4 15.4
Clemson Georgia Southern 48.6 44.0 48.9
New Mexico St. New Mexico -8.7 -8.0 -8.3
UAB Tulane -5.5 -3.2 -4.9
Baylor Duke -9.8 -9.6 -9.8
Florida Colorado St. 28.6 25.0 28.6
Texas Tech Houston 3.6 0.6 1.0
Kansas St. UTSA 29.8 23.4 28.0
Arkansas North Texas 12.0 6.3 9.5
Oregon San Jose St. 41.4 40.7 43.9
Buffalo Eastern Michigan 5.3 6.4 5.9
Nevada Oregon St. 6.5 9.3 8.2
Ole Miss Alabama -23.4 -21.5 -24.4
Tulsa Arkansas St. 7.6 4.6 6.5
South Alabama Texas St. 13.7 12.6 15.4
Georgia Middle Tennessee 45.6 39.6 46.0
South Carolina Marshall 20.5 16.5 18.7
Purdue Missouri -7.4 -7.5 -10.0
Northwestern Akron 25.6 21.8 25.4
Mississippi St. Louisiana 46.8 41.6 46.4
Texas A&M UL-Monroe 28.8 27.9 28.3
Louisville Western Kentucky 23.3 19.7 21.5
Texas USC -0.4 -0.2 -0.8
TCU Ohio St. -11.5 -9.4 -13.1
Utah Washington -12.5 -11.6 -14.1
UCLA Fresno St. -6.2 -4.8 -8.3
San Diego St. Arizona St. -7.1 -5.0 -5.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Utah St. Tennessee Tech 38.6
Kentucky Murray St. 36.1
Connecticut Rhode Island 10.2
Stanford UC-Davis 36.9
Navy Lehigh 29.8
Wyoming Wofford 17.5
Bowling Green Eastern Kentucky 13.5
Colorado New Hampshire 30.3
California Idaho St. 32.1
Liberty Norfolk St. 18.5
Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman 38.5
Coastal Carolina Campbell 17.7
Cincinnati Alabama A&M 36.0
Western Michigan Delaware St. 39.7
Iowa Northern Iowa 32.2
Washington St. Eastern Wash. 23.7
UNLV Prairie-View 21.2
Arizona Southern Utah 24.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.8 131.7 135.7 133.7
2 Georgia 131.9 127.6 133.3 130.9
3 Clemson 130.8 127.7 131.5 130.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 125.9 129.3 128.0
5 Washington 126.7 124.2 129.1 126.6
6 Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6
7 Mississippi St. 123.8 120.8 124.4 123.0
8 Michigan 123.1 122.0 124.0 123.0
9 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
10 Michigan St. 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.5
11 Penn St. 121.2 118.0 121.5 120.2
12 Wisconsin 121.2 118.3 120.9 120.1
13 Stanford 120.5 118.1 121.0 119.9
14 Notre Dame 120.7 116.9 119.1 118.9
15 Boston College 118.2 115.2 118.5 117.3
16 Miami 117.3 115.3 116.9 116.5
17 Boise St. 116.4 115.8 117.2 116.5
18 Virginia Tech 116.2 115.7 116.1 116.0
19 Missouri 115.2 113.7 116.8 115.2
20 Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8
21 Duke 115.2 112.7 114.7 114.2
22 T C U 114.2 113.6 113.2 113.6
23 Iowa 114.2 111.8 113.6 113.2
24 Oklahoma St. 113.8 111.8 113.7 113.1
25 L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1
26 N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.7 112.9 113.0
27 Central Florida 112.7 112.5 112.8 112.7
28 Texas A&M 113.0 111.7 113.2 112.6
29 Northwestern 112.9 110.8 112.9 112.2
30 S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.4 111.4
31 U S C 112.1 110.3 111.5 111.3
32 West Virginia 111.7 110.9 111.1 111.2
33 Utah 111.2 109.5 112.0 110.9
34 Georgia Tech 110.6 109.6 110.2 110.2
35 Florida 110.2 108.0 110.3 109.5
36 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
37 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
38 Florida St. 109.0 108.3 108.6 108.6
39 Kentucky 108.7 107.5 108.4 108.2
40 Washington St. 108.8 107.9 107.7 108.1
41 Arizona St. 108.8 107.3 108.1 108.1
42 Texas 108.7 107.1 107.7 107.8
43 Ole Miss 107.5 107.2 108.3 107.6
44 Fresno St. 107.9 106.3 107.4 107.2
45 Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1
46 Minnesota 106.6 105.8 106.3 106.2
47 Syracuse 106.5 104.9 105.3 105.6
48 Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.3 105.3
49 Maryland 105.9 104.4 105.1 105.1
50 Kansas St. 106.0 104.3 105.0 105.1
51 Purdue 104.8 103.1 103.7 103.9
52 Houston 103.1 104.3 103.8 103.7
53 Utah St. 102.5 104.0 104.1 103.5
54 Arkansas 104.9 102.0 103.2 103.4
55 Louisville 102.9 102.7 102.3 102.6
56 Texas Tech 103.7 101.8 101.9 102.5
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Vanderbilt 101.5 102.5 101.8 102.0
59 Baylor 102.4 100.2 101.9 101.5
60 Virginia 101.5 101.8 99.9 101.1
61 Pittsburgh 101.0 100.7 100.2 100.7
62 Arizona 101.0 99.3 100.9 100.4
63 N. Carolina 100.4 99.3 99.6 99.8
64 BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.4
66 South Florida 98.0 101.0 98.9 99.3
67 San Diego St. 98.7 99.3 99.9 99.3
68 Nebraska 100.1 98.4 97.5 98.6
69 Toledo 97.2 99.3 97.3 97.9
70 U C L A 98.8 98.5 96.2 97.8
71 Indiana 98.0 97.1 97.5 97.5
72 Wyoming 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.3
73 N. Texas 95.9 98.8 96.7 97.1
74 Tennessee 97.2 97.5 96.5 97.1
75 Army 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.5
76 Buffalo 95.3 97.6 96.5 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 96.7 96.1 96.3
79 Marshall 94.4 97.3 95.6 95.8
80 Tulane 95.6 95.7 95.2 95.5
81 Ohio U 94.6 96.0 95.9 95.5
82 Appalachian St. 94.2 95.7 95.5 95.1
83 Kansas 96.1 95.0 94.1 95.1
84 Rutgers 95.8 94.9 93.9 94.9
85 Louisiana Tech 93.4 95.9 94.6 94.6
86 Eastern Michigan 92.4 93.7 93.1 93.1
87 Air Force 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9
88 Illinois 93.3 92.9 92.1 92.8
89 Tulsa 93.0 91.6 93.6 92.7
90 Temple 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.6
91 Cincinnati 92.0 93.6 92.0 92.5
92 Nevada 91.3 91.4 91.3 91.3
93 Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9
94 Western Michigan 89.9 91.5 90.7 90.7
95 Troy 89.5 91.0 91.1 90.5
96 U N L V 89.5 91.1 90.0 90.2
97 Middle Tennessee 89.3 91.0 90.2 90.2
98 Miami (O) 89.1 91.1 90.0 90.1
99 SMU 90.7 89.7 89.2 89.9
100 Massachusetts 88.2 90.0 89.6 89.3
101 Arkansas St. 87.9 89.5 89.6 89.0
102 U A B 87.6 90.0 87.8 88.5
103 UL-Monroe 87.1 86.7 87.9 87.3
104 New Mexico 86.4 88.1 86.3 86.9
105 Oregon St. 87.8 85.2 86.1 86.4
106 Georgia Southern 85.3 86.7 85.6 85.9
107 East Carolina 85.7 84.9 84.8 85.1
108 Colo. State 84.6 85.9 84.7 85.1
109 Florida Int’l. 83.2 87.7 83.8 84.9
110 Central Michigan 83.5 86.3 83.7 84.5
111 Ball St. 83.2 85.9 82.9 84.0
112 Bowling Green 83.7 83.7 83.9 83.8
113 Southern Miss. 82.3 85.5 82.8 83.6
114 W. Kentucky 81.6 85.0 82.7 83.1
115 Old Dominion 81.0 85.2 81.0 82.4
116 South Alabama 81.3 83.4 82.3 82.3
117 Kent St. 81.6 82.9 81.0 81.8
118 U T S A 79.2 83.9 80.0 81.1
119 Louisiana 79.5 81.7 80.5 80.6
120 Liberty 81.0 79.3 81.2 80.5
121 Hawaii 79.9 82.2 78.4 80.2
122 Coastal Carolina 78.5 81.5 79.1 79.7
123 Georgia St. 77.9 80.7 78.9 79.2
124 Connecticut 78.5 78.7 77.2 78.1
125 N. Mexico St. 75.7 78.1 76.0 76.6
126 San Jose St. 76.1 76.9 74.3 75.8
127 Charlotte 74.5 76.8 74.6 75.3
128 Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.6 67.8 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 112.7 112.5 112.8 112.7 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.0 101.0 98.9 99.3 0-0 2-0
Temple 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.6 0-0 0-2
Cincinnati 92.0 93.6 92.0 92.5 0-0 2-0
East Carolina 85.7 84.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.5 78.7 77.2 78.1 0-1 0-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.3 105.3 0-1 1-1
Houston 103.1 104.3 103.8 103.7 0-0 2-0
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 1-1
Tulane 95.6 95.7 95.2 95.5 0-0 1-1
Tulsa 93.0 91.6 93.6 92.7 0-0 1-1
SMU 90.7 89.7 89.2 89.9 0-0 0-2
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.8 127.7 131.5 130.0 0-0 2-0
Boston College 118.2 115.2 118.5 117.3 0-0 2-0
N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.7 112.9 113.0 0-0 2-0
Florida St. 109.0 108.3 108.6 108.6 0-1 1-1
Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 106.5 104.9 105.3 105.6 0-0 2-0
Louisville 102.9 102.7 102.3 102.6 0-0 1-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.3 115.3 116.9 116.5 0-0 1-1
Virginia Tech 116.2 115.7 116.1 116.0 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.2 112.7 114.7 114.2 0-0 2-0
Georgia Tech 110.6 109.6 110.2 110.2 0-0 1-1
Virginia 101.5 101.8 99.9 101.1 0-0 1-1
Pittsburgh 101.0 100.7 100.2 100.7 0-0 1-1
N. Carolina 100.4 99.3 99.6 99.8 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.8 109.5 110.2 110.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 0-0 2-0
T C U 114.2 113.6 113.2 113.6 0-0 2-0
Oklahoma St. 113.8 111.8 113.7 113.1 0-0 2-0
West Virginia 111.7 110.9 111.1 111.2 0-0 2-0
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-0 0-1
Texas 108.7 107.1 107.7 107.8 0-0 1-1
Kansas St. 106.0 104.3 105.0 105.1 0-0 1-1
Texas Tech 103.7 101.8 101.9 102.5 0-0 1-1
Baylor 102.4 100.2 101.9 101.5 0-0 2-0
Kansas 96.1 95.0 94.1 95.1 0-0 1-1
Big 12 Averages 108.9 107.4 108.1 108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 125.9 129.3 128.0 1-0 2-0
Michigan 123.1 122.0 124.0 123.0 0-0 1-1
Michigan St. 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.5 0-0 1-1
Penn St. 121.2 118.0 121.5 120.2 0-0 2-0
Maryland 105.9 104.4 105.1 105.1 0-0 2-0
Indiana 98.0 97.1 97.5 97.5 0-0 2-0
Rutgers 95.8 94.9 93.9 94.9 0-1 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 121.2 118.3 120.9 120.1 0-0 2-0
Iowa 114.2 111.8 113.6 113.2 0-0 2-0
Northwestern 112.9 110.8 112.9 112.2 1-0 1-1
Minnesota 106.6 105.8 106.3 106.2 0-0 2-0
Purdue 104.8 103.1 103.7 103.9 0-1 0-2
Nebraska 100.1 98.4 97.5 98.6 0-0 0-1
Illinois 93.3 92.9 92.1 92.8 0-0 2-0
Big Ten Averages 110.6 108.8 110.0 109.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.4 0-0 1-1
Marshall 94.4 97.3 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.3 91.0 90.2 90.2 0-0 1-1
Florida Int’l. 83.2 87.7 83.8 84.9 1-0 1-1
W. Kentucky 81.6 85.0 82.7 83.1 0-0 0-2
Old Dominion 81.0 85.2 81.0 82.4 0-1 0-2
Charlotte 74.5 76.8 74.6 75.3 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 95.9 98.8 96.7 97.1 0-0 2-0
Louisiana Tech 93.4 95.9 94.6 94.6 0-0 2-0
U A B 87.6 90.0 87.8 88.5 0-0 1-1
Southern Miss. 82.3 85.5 82.8 83.6 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.2 83.9 80.0 81.1 0-0 0-2
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.5 71.6 67.8 69.3 0-0 0-2
CUSA Averages 84.3 87.3 84.8 85.4
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 120.7 116.9 119.1 118.9 x 2-0
BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4 x 1-1
Army 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.5 x 1-1
Massachusetts 88.2 90.0 89.6 89.3 x 1-2
Liberty 81.0 79.3 81.2 80.5 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 75.7 78.1 76.0 76.6 x 0-3
Ind. Averages 93.5 93.5 93.7 93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.3 97.6 96.5 96.5 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 94.6 96.0 95.9 95.5 0-0 1-0
Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9 0-0 1-0
Miami (O) 89.1 91.1 90.0 90.1 0-0 0-2
Bowling Green 83.7 83.7 83.9 83.8 0-0 0-2
Kent St. 81.6 82.9 81.0 81.8 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.2 99.3 97.3 97.9 0-0 1-0
Northern Illinois 96.1 96.7 96.1 96.3 0-0 0-2
Eastern Michigan 92.4 93.7 93.1 93.1 0-0 2-0
Western Michigan 89.9 91.5 90.7 90.7 0-0 0-2
Central Michigan 83.5 86.3 83.7 84.5 0-0 0-2
Ball St. 83.2 85.9 82.9 84.0 0-0 1-1
MAC Averages 89.8 91.4 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 116.4 115.8 117.2 116.5 0-0 2-0
Utah St. 102.5 104.0 104.1 103.5 0-0 1-1
Wyoming 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.3 0-0 1-2
Air Force 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.4 88.1 86.3 86.9 0-0 1-1
Colo. State 84.6 85.9 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 107.9 106.3 107.4 107.2 0-0 1-1
San Diego St. 98.7 99.3 99.9 99.3 0-0 1-1
Nevada 91.3 91.4 91.3 91.3 0-0 1-1
U N L V 89.5 91.1 90.0 90.2 0-0 1-1
Hawaii 79.9 82.2 78.4 80.2 1-0 3-0
San Jose St. 76.1 76.9 74.3 75.8 0-0 0-2
MWC Averages 93.6 94.3 93.6 93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.7 124.2 129.1 126.6 0-0 1-1
Stanford 120.5 118.1 121.0 119.9 1-0 2-0
Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8 0-0 2-0
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 2-0
Washington St. 108.8 107.9 107.7 108.1 0-0 2-0
Oregon St. 87.8 85.2 86.1 86.4 0-0 1-1
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.1 110.3 111.5 111.3 0-1 1-1
Utah 111.2 109.5 112.0 110.9 0-0 2-0
Arizona St. 108.8 107.3 108.1 108.1 0-0 2-0
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 2-0
Arizona 101.0 99.3 100.9 100.4 0-0 0-2
U C L A 98.8 98.5 96.2 97.8 0-0 0-2
Pac-12 Averages 108.4 107.0 108.3 107.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 127.6 133.3 130.9 1-0 2-0
Missouri 115.2 113.7 116.8 115.2 0-0 2-0
S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.4 111.4 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.2 108.0 110.3 109.5 0-1 1-1
Kentucky 108.7 107.5 108.4 108.2 1-0 2-0
Vanderbilt 101.5 102.5 101.8 102.0 0-0 2-0
Tennessee 97.2 97.5 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 133.8 131.7 135.7 133.7 0-0 2-0
Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6 0-0 2-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 120.8 124.4 123.0 0-0 2-0
L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1 0-0 2-0
Texas A&M 113.0 111.7 113.2 112.6 0-0 1-1
Ole Miss 107.5 107.2 108.3 107.6 0-0 2-0
Arkansas 104.9 102.0 103.2 103.4 0-0 1-1
SEC Averages 114.0 112.5 114.5 113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.2 95.7 95.5 95.1 0-0 1-1
Troy 89.5 91.0 91.1 90.5 0-0 1-1
Georgia Southern 85.3 86.7 85.6 85.9 0-0 2-0
Coastal Carolina 78.5 81.5 79.1 79.7 0-0 1-1
Georgia St. 77.9 80.7 78.9 79.2 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.9 89.5 89.6 89.0 0-0 1-1
UL-Monroe 87.1 86.7 87.9 87.3 0-0 2-0
South Alabama 81.3 83.4 82.3 82.3 0-0 0-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.7 80.5 80.6 0-0 1-0
Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5 0-0 1-1
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.1 84.0 84.1

 

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.0 112.5 114.5 113.7
2 ACC 110.8 109.5 110.2 110.2
3 BTEN 110.6 108.8 110.0 109.8
4 B12 108.9 107.4 108.1 108.1
5 P-12 108.4 107.0 108.3 107.9
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
7 MWC 93.6 94.3 93.6 93.8
8 IND 93.5 93.5 93.7 93.5
9 MAC 89.8 91.4 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 84.3 87.3 84.8 85.4
11 SUN 83.2 85.1 84.0 84.1

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Toledo Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Tulsa Western Michigan
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan UNLV
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Virginia]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [California]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Louisiana
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Int’l. Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Army] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Georgia Tech [UAB]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC [Utah] Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC North Carolina St. Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Washington
Belk ACC SEC Boston College South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Virginia Tech
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Syracuse
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC [Georgia Southern] Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan USC
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Boise St. TCU
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Stanford
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Auburn
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Ohio St.
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
Championship  Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 6-10, 2018

With the NFL kicking off Thursday night, this is the first weekend where the handicappers have both college and pro regular season football to consider when making their selections.

It has been a custom at the PiRate Ratings that we make the maximum number of picks on this week of the season.  We will be going with 11 selections this week, using a combination of straight wagers, money line parlays, and 10-point teasers.

As usual, please be advised that every selection made on this website is absolutely free to you, and you should consider the value of the information to struggle to meet the monetary cost you pay to receive it.  In other words, unless you are a sharp in the Caribbean that knows how to use our picks and make a fortune, please do not wager your hard-earned money on games using this site as your sole reference.  The PiRates do this strictly for mathematical fun.

Here are this week’s PiRate Picks.

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Michigan St. Arizona St. 5 1/2 Mich. St.
BYU California 3 1/2 California
Indiana Virginia 7 Virginia
Georgia Tech South Florida 3 Ga. Tech
Stanford USC 4 Stanford
Money Line Parlay @+238
Winner Loser
North Carolina East Carolina
Maryland Bowling Green
Florida Kentucky
Stanford USC
Michigan St. Arizona St.
Money Line Parlay @ +182
Winner Loser
Purdue Eastern Michigan
Georgia South Carolina
Appalachian St. Charlotte
UAB Coastal Carolina
Penn St. Pittsburgh
Money Line Parlay @+237
Winner Loser
Pittsburgh Cleveland
Baltimore Buffalo
New Orleans Tampa Bay
New England Houston
Money Line Game @+140
Winner Loser
Cincinnati Indianapolis
10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Coastal Carolina UAB 1 UAB
Indiana Virginia 17 Virginia
Purdue Eastern Mich. 5 1/2 Purdue
10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Georgia South Carolina Pk Georgia
USC Stanford 6 Stanford
Clemson Texas A&M 2 Clemson

The PiRates are adding some buckaroos to the ship this season for their expertise in picking football games. In addition to our own picks, each of the buckaroos and buckarettes will supply his or her own picks to us each week. If they prove their worth, we’ll run their picks up the flagpole every week, but if they lose too much, they’ll walk the plank.

To start off, each has been granted an unlimited bank account to wager an odd number of games of 3, 5, 7, or 9 selections each week isolated to just college football. All pretend wagers will be $100 a game, so it will be easy to calculate. If they win, they earn another $100 to their imaginary account. If they lose, then $110 will be deducted.

Our guest players have all chosen their user names for this event, so here is a brief introduction on each player–in alphabetical order.

1. Buckeye Michelle lives in Florida, after growing up in the Cleveland area. Don’t let her gender fool you; she knows football. She can recognize coverage zones by the defense, but most of all, she sees what most of us don’t see–value. If you ever need a personal shopper, Michie is the one for you. She’ll find you a lot of bargains.

2. Cal Gal Tiffy lives on the West Coast, and yes, she is another member of the fairer sex. A tomboy who played tackle football with the boys growing up, she matured into a model and now is a makeup artist that never misses a Stanford home game.

3. Dean 615 is a former college football star and played in the NFL for a decade. Dean knows how to evaluate talent and can watch a game and see all 22 players and know who missed his assignment. Dean has a room full of trophies in his home.

4. Friday Dog 13 is a rabid football fan and friend of the Captains for 40+ years. Friday Dog has seen more than 100 football games in person, many at Vanderbilt’s Dudley Field and many at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio. Friday Dog is an expert in hometown football.

5. Stewed Meat is a professional sharp. Stewed has cashed some rather expensive tickets in Las Vegas and has been banned in some places or been forced to play no more than a certain amount on college games. Stewed is the Captain’s source for receiving the “Outlaw” line as well as how quickly the lines flattened and which games saw sharps playing both sides for the middle. Stewed has placed a grand on one parlay and won $10K when the parlay came in. Stewed has also watched a botched extra point kill a $25K wager. Stewed plays money line parlays almost exclusively and has admitted that playing individual games against the spread is not Stewed’s expertise.
Note–The odds chosen were the best available at Oddshark.com at the time of the submission to the Captain.

Here are the picks this week for each player.
1. Buckeye Michelle
Rice +17 1/2 vs. Hawaii
Louisiana-Monroe + 6 1/2 vs. Southern Miss.
Colorado St. +13 1/2 vs. Arkansas
Kentucky +14 1/2 vs. Florida
Tulsa +23 vs. Texas

2. Cal Gal Tiffy
Stanford -4 vs. USC
California +3 1/2 vs. BYU
Iowa -3 1/3 vs. Iowa St.
Notre Dame -34 vs. Ball St.
Army -8 1/2 vs. Liberty
Central Michigan -4 vs. Kansas
Georgia -10 vs. South Carolina

3. Dean 73
Notre Dame -34 vs. Ball St.
Appalachian St. -13 1/2 vs. Charlotte
UAB -9 vs. Coastal Carolina

4. Friday Dog 13
Vanderbilt -8 1/2 vs. Nevada
Ohio St. -34 1/2 vs. Rutgers
Mississippi St. -9 1/2 vs. Kansas St.

5. Stewed Meat
Western Michigan +28 vs. Michigan
Stanford -4 vs. USC
Rutgers +35 1/2 vs. Ohio St.
Iowa -3 1/2 vs. Iowa St.
Wyoming +18 vs. Missouri

 

September 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.5 131.2 135.4 133.4
2 Clemson 131.9 128.6 132.8 131.1
3 Georgia 131.1 126.5 132.6 130.0
4 Washington 126.9 124.4 129.3 126.8
5 Ohio St. 126.2 123.5 126.8 125.5
6 Michigan St. 124.7 122.4 124.8 124.0
7 Notre Dame 125.7 121.9 124.1 123.9
8 Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6
9 Oklahoma 122.5 121.1 123.1 122.2
10 Mississippi St. 122.8 119.5 123.0 121.8
11 Michigan 121.6 120.2 122.3 121.3
12 Wisconsin 121.7 118.6 121.7 120.7
13 Stanford 120.1 117.5 120.7 119.4
14 Boston College 118.1 115.1 118.4 117.2
15 Miami 117.1 115.1 116.7 116.3
16 Virginia Tech 116.1 115.6 116.0 115.9
17 Penn St. 116.7 113.5 117.0 115.7
18 Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8
19 Missouri 114.6 112.9 116.2 114.5
20 Northwestern 114.8 112.8 115.2 114.3
21 Boise St. 113.3 112.8 114.3 113.5
22 N. Carolina St. 113.6 112.8 113.4 113.3
23 L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1
24 Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0
25 Florida 113.4 111.1 113.8 112.7
26 Iowa 113.7 111.2 112.9 112.6
27 T C U 112.9 112.2 111.7 112.2
28 Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2
29 Duke 113.3 110.7 112.4 112.2
30 Georgia Tech 112.5 111.2 112.1 112.0
31 S. Carolina 112.3 111.4 111.6 111.8
32 U S C 112.3 110.7 111.6 111.5
33 Utah 111.5 109.5 112.4 111.2
34 West Virginia 111.6 110.8 111.0 111.1
35 Texas A&M 111.2 110.1 111.2 110.8
36 Iowa State 110.5 108.6 110.0 109.7
37 Florida St. 109.7 109.0 109.3 109.3
38 Texas 109.8 108.3 108.9 109.0
39 California 110.0 107.2 109.6 108.9
40 Ole Miss 107.8 107.5 108.6 107.9
41 Washington St. 108.6 107.7 107.5 107.9
42 Fresno St. 108.5 106.9 108.2 107.9
43 Arkansas 109.4 106.5 107.7 107.9
44 Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1
45 Purdue 107.9 106.1 106.8 106.9
46 Memphis 105.2 107.3 106.7 106.4
47 Kansas St. 106.8 105.4 106.2 106.1
48 Arizona St. 106.7 105.2 105.6 105.8
49 Minnesota 106.0 105.2 105.5 105.6
50 Kentucky 106.0 104.9 105.4 105.4
51 Arizona 106.1 104.1 106.0 105.4
52 Syracuse 106.3 104.7 105.1 105.4
53 Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2
54 N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.7 104.8
55 Maryland 104.6 102.8 103.4 103.6
56 Louisville 103.6 103.4 103.0 103.3
57 Texas Tech 103.2 101.3 101.4 102.0
58 Baylor 102.7 100.4 102.1 101.7
59 Colorado 100.6 102.3 102.0 101.6
60 Virginia 101.9 102.4 100.3 101.5
61 Utah St. 100.3 101.5 101.9 101.2
62 Houston 99.1 100.6 99.8 99.8
63 Florida Atlantic 99.3 99.9 100.3 99.8
64 Vanderbilt 99.1 100.1 99.2 99.5
65 San Diego St. 98.9 99.5 100.1 99.5
66 BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4
67 Nebraska 100.3 98.5 97.6 98.8
68 U C L A 98.9 98.7 96.3 97.9
69 Wyoming 98.0 98.1 97.8 97.9
70 Toledo 97.0 99.1 97.1 97.7
71 South Florida 95.8 99.1 96.7 97.2
72 Rutgers 98.1 97.1 96.2 97.1
73 Indiana 97.6 96.5 97.1 97.1
74 N. Texas 95.8 98.7 96.6 97.0
75 Tennessee 96.9 97.2 96.2 96.8
76 Marshall 94.7 97.6 95.9 96.1
77 Northern Illinois 95.8 96.7 95.7 96.1
78 Army 95.6 96.1 95.5 95.8
79 Buffalo 94.5 96.9 95.6 95.7
80 Tulane 95.5 95.6 95.1 95.4
81 Ohio U 94.4 95.8 95.7 95.3
82 Navy 94.5 97.3 93.8 95.2
83 Louisiana Tech 93.3 95.8 94.5 94.5
84 Nevada 93.7 93.8 93.9 93.8
85 Temple 93.3 93.3 93.7 93.4
86 U A B 91.8 94.3 92.2 92.8
87 Air Force 92.7 92.7 91.9 92.4
88 Western Michigan 91.4 93.3 92.4 92.4
89 Illinois 92.9 92.5 91.7 92.4
90 Miami (O) 91.1 93.4 92.5 92.3
91 Appalachian St. 91.5 92.8 92.8 92.3
92 Kansas 93.5 91.9 91.2 92.2
93 Massachusetts 90.5 92.5 92.3 91.8
94 Tulsa 91.9 90.4 92.4 91.6
95 SMU 92.0 91.1 90.7 91.3
96 Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9
97 Eastern Michigan 89.6 91.0 90.3 90.3
98 Troy 89.2 90.7 90.8 90.2
99 Middle Tennessee 89.1 90.8 90.0 90.0
100 U N L V 89.3 90.8 89.8 90.0
101 Cincinnati 89.7 91.0 89.2 89.9
102 Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2
103 UL-Monroe 87.1 86.5 87.9 87.2
104 Central Michigan 85.6 88.9 86.1 86.9
105 New Mexico 85.9 87.8 85.5 86.4
106 Oregon St. 87.4 84.8 85.7 86.0
107 Bowling Green 85.0 85.3 85.6 85.3
108 Florida Int’l. 82.2 86.6 82.8 83.9
109 W. Kentucky 82.3 85.7 83.4 83.8
110 Southern Miss. 82.3 85.7 82.8 83.6
111 Old Dominion 82.0 86.3 82.0 83.5
112 South Alabama 81.9 84.4 83.3 83.2
113 Georgia Southern 82.7 83.9 82.6 83.1
114 East Carolina 82.3 81.4 81.2 81.6
115 Connecticut 81.9 82.0 80.4 81.4
116 Liberty 81.7 79.9 82.2 81.3
117 Colo. State 80.6 81.9 80.7 81.1
118 Kent St. 80.8 82.1 80.2 81.0
119 U T S A 78.9 83.7 79.8 80.8
120 Louisiana 79.3 81.5 80.3 80.4
121 Hawaii 79.8 82.0 78.3 80.0
122 N. Mexico St. 78.9 81.6 79.2 79.9
123 Ball St. 78.2 80.9 77.9 79.0
124 Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9
125 Charlotte 76.7 79.2 76.8 77.6
126 San Jose St. 76.3 77.1 74.5 76.0
127 Coastal Carolina 73.8 76.7 74.2 74.9
128 Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5
129 Rice 70.5 73.6 69.2 71.1
130 U T E P 68.7 71.9 68.0 69.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0 1-0 1-0
South Florida 95.8 99.1 96.7 97.2 0-0 1-0
Temple 93.3 93.3 93.7 93.4 0-0 0-1
Cincinnati 89.7 91.0 89.2 89.9 0-0 1-0
East Carolina 82.3 81.4 81.2 81.6 0-0 0-1
Connecticut 81.9 82.0 80.4 81.4 0-1 0-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 105.2 107.3 106.7 106.4 0-0 1-0
Houston 99.1 100.6 99.8 99.8 0-0 1-0
Tulane 95.5 95.6 95.1 95.4 0-0 0-1
Navy 94.5 97.3 93.8 95.2 0-0 0-1
Tulsa 91.9 90.4 92.4 91.6 0-0 1-0
SMU 92.0 91.1 90.7 91.3 0-0 0-1
AAC Averages 94.5 95.1 94.4 94.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 131.9 128.6 132.8 131.1 0-0 1-0
Boston College 118.1 115.1 118.4 117.2 0-0 1-0
N. Carolina St. 113.6 112.8 113.4 113.3 0-0 1-0
Florida St. 109.7 109.0 109.3 109.3 0-1 0-1
Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1 0-0 1-0
Syracuse 106.3 104.7 105.1 105.4 0-0 1-0
Louisville 103.6 103.4 103.0 103.3 0-0 0-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.1 115.1 116.7 116.3 0-0 0-1
Virginia Tech 116.1 115.6 116.0 115.9 1-0 1-0
Duke 113.3 110.7 112.4 112.2 0-0 1-0
Georgia Tech 112.5 111.2 112.1 112.0 0-0 1-0
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2 0-0 1-0
N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.7 104.8 0-0 0-1
Virginia 101.9 102.4 100.3 101.5 0-0 1-0
ACC Averages 111.7 110.3 111.1 111.0
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.5 121.1 123.1 122.2 0-0 1-0
T C U 112.9 112.2 111.7 112.2 0-0 1-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2 0-0 1-0
West Virginia 111.6 110.8 111.0 111.1 0-0 1-0
Iowa State 110.5 108.6 110.0 109.7 0-0 0-0
Texas 109.8 108.3 108.9 109.0 0-0 0-1
Kansas St. 106.8 105.4 106.2 106.1 0-0 1-0
Texas Tech 103.2 101.3 101.4 102.0 0-0 0-1
Baylor 102.7 100.4 102.1 101.7 0-0 1-0
Kansas 93.5 91.9 91.2 92.2 0-0 0-1
Big 12 Averages 108.7 107.1 107.8 107.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 126.2 123.5 126.8 125.5 0-0 1-0
Michigan St. 124.7 122.4 124.8 124.0 0-0 1-0
Michigan 121.6 120.2 122.3 121.3 0-0 0-1
Penn St. 116.7 113.5 117.0 115.7 0-0 1-0
Maryland 104.6 102.8 103.4 103.6 0-0 1-0
Rutgers 98.1 97.1 96.2 97.1 0-0 1-0
Indiana 97.6 96.5 97.1 97.1 0-0 1-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 121.7 118.6 121.7 120.7 0-0 1-0
Northwestern 114.8 112.8 115.2 114.3 1-0 1-0
Iowa 113.7 111.2 112.9 112.6 0-0 1-0
Purdue 107.9 106.1 106.8 106.9 0-1 0-1
Minnesota 106.0 105.2 105.5 105.6 0-0 1-0
Nebraska 100.3 98.5 97.6 98.8 0-0 0-0
Illinois 92.9 92.5 91.7 92.4 0-0 1-0
Big Ten Averages 110.5 108.6 109.9 109.7
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 99.3 99.9 100.3 99.8 0-0 0-1
Marshall 94.7 97.6 95.9 96.1 0-0 1-0
Middle Tennessee 89.1 90.8 90.0 90.0 0-0 0-1
Florida Int’l. 82.2 86.6 82.8 83.9 0-0 0-1
W. Kentucky 82.3 85.7 83.4 83.8 0-0 0-1
Old Dominion 82.0 86.3 82.0 83.5 0-0 0-1
Charlotte 76.7 79.2 76.8 77.6 0-0 1-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 95.8 98.7 96.6 97.0 0-0 1-0
Louisiana Tech 93.3 95.8 94.5 94.5 0-0 1-0
U A B 91.8 94.3 92.2 92.8 0-0 1-0
Southern Miss. 82.3 85.7 82.8 83.6 0-0 1-0
U T S A 78.9 83.7 79.8 80.8 0-0 0-1
Rice 70.5 73.6 69.2 71.1 0-0 1-1
U T E P 68.7 71.9 68.0 69.5 0-0 0-1
CUSA Averages 84.8 87.8 85.3 86.0
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.7 121.9 124.1 123.9 x 1-0
BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4 x 1-0
Army 95.6 96.1 95.5 95.8 x 0-1
Massachusetts 90.5 92.5 92.3 91.8 x 1-1
Liberty 81.7 79.9 82.2 81.3 x 1-0
N. Mexico St. 78.9 81.6 79.2 79.9 x 0-2
Indep.  Averages 95.2 95.3 95.5 95.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 94.5 96.9 95.6 95.7 0-0 1-0
Ohio U 94.4 95.8 95.7 95.3 0-0 1-0
Miami (O) 91.1 93.4 92.5 92.3 0-0 0-1
Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 85.0 85.3 85.6 85.3 0-0 0-1
Kent St. 80.8 82.1 80.2 81.0 0-0 0-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.0 99.1 97.1 97.7 0-0 1-0
Northern Illinois 95.8 96.7 95.7 96.1 0-0 0-1
Western Michigan 91.4 93.3 92.4 92.4 0-0 0-1
Eastern Michigan 89.6 91.0 90.3 90.3 0-0 1-0
Central Michigan 85.6 88.9 86.1 86.9 0-0 0-1
Ball St. 78.2 80.9 77.9 79.0 0-0 1-0
MAC Averages 89.5 91.3 90.0 90.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.3 112.8 114.3 113.5 0-0 1-0
Utah St. 100.3 101.5 101.9 101.2 0-0 0-1
Wyoming 98.0 98.1 97.8 97.9 0-0 1-1
Air Force 92.7 92.7 91.9 92.4 0-0 1-0
New Mexico 85.9 87.8 85.5 86.4 0-0 1-0
Colo. State 80.6 81.9 80.7 81.1 0-1 0-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 108.5 106.9 108.2 107.9 0-0 1-0
San Diego St. 98.9 99.5 100.1 99.5 0-0 0-1
Nevada 93.7 93.8 93.9 93.8 0-0 1-0
U N L V 89.3 90.8 89.8 90.0 0-0 0-1
Hawaii 79.8 82.0 78.3 80.0 1-0 2-0
San Jose St. 76.3 77.1 74.5 76.0 0-0 0-1
MWC Averages 93.1 93.7 93.1 93.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.9 124.4 129.3 126.8 0-0 0-1
Stanford 120.1 117.5 120.7 119.4 0-0 1-0
Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8 0-0 1-0
California 110.0 107.2 109.6 108.9 0-0 1-0
Washington St. 108.6 107.7 107.5 107.9 0-0 1-0
Oregon St. 87.4 84.8 85.7 86.0 0-0 0-1
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.3 110.7 111.6 111.5 0-0 1-0
Utah 111.5 109.5 112.4 111.2 0-0 1-0
Arizona St. 106.7 105.2 105.6 105.8 0-0 1-0
Arizona 106.1 104.1 106.0 105.4 0-0 0-1
Colorado 100.6 102.3 102.0 101.6 0-0 1-0
U C L A 98.9 98.7 96.3 97.9 0-0 0-1
Pac-12 Averages 108.6 107.2 108.5 108.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.1 126.5 132.6 130.0 0-0 1-0
Missouri 114.6 112.9 116.2 114.5 0-0 1-0
Florida 113.4 111.1 113.8 112.7 0-0 1-0
S. Carolina 112.3 111.4 111.6 111.8 0-0 1-0
Kentucky 106.0 104.9 105.4 105.4 0-0 1-0
Vanderbilt 99.1 100.1 99.2 99.5 0-0 1-0
Tennessee 96.9 97.2 96.2 96.8 0-0 0-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 133.5 131.2 135.4 133.4 0-0 1-0
Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6 0-0 1-0
Mississippi St. 122.8 119.5 123.0 121.8 0-0 1-0
L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1 0-0 1-0
Texas A&M 111.2 110.1 111.2 110.8 0-0 1-0
Ole Miss 107.8 107.5 108.6 107.9 0-0 1-0
Arkansas 109.4 106.5 107.7 107.9 0-0 1-0
SEC Averages 113.9 112.4 114.3 113.5
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 91.5 92.8 92.8 92.3 0-0 0-1
Troy 89.2 90.7 90.8 90.2 0-0 0-1
Georgia Southern 82.7 83.9 82.6 83.1 0-0 1-0
Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9 0-0 1-0
Coastal Carolina 73.8 76.7 74.2 74.9 0-0 0-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2 0-0 1-0
UL-Monroe 87.1 86.5 87.9 87.2 0-0 1-0
South Alabama 81.9 84.4 83.3 83.2 0-0 0-1
Louisiana 79.3 81.5 80.3 80.4 0-0 1-0
Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5 0-0 0-1
Sun Belt Averages 82.2 84.1 83.0 83.1

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.9 112.4 114.3 113.5
2 ACC 111.7 110.3 111.1 111.0
3 BTEN 110.5 108.6 109.9 109.7
4 P-12 108.6 107.2 108.5 108.1
5 B12 108.7 107.1 107.8 107.9
6 IND 95.2 95.3 95.5 95.3
7 AAC 94.5 95.1 94.4 94.7
8 MWC 93.1 93.7 93.1 93.3
9 MAC 89.5 91.3 90.0 90.2
10 CUSA 84.8 87.8 85.3 86.0
11 SBC 82.2 84.1 83.0 83.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings’ Spreads

Friday September 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU TCU -19.4 -19.5 -19.5
Saturday September 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Army Liberty 16.4 18.7 15.8
Coastal Carolina UAB -15.5 -15.1 -15.6
South Florida Georgia Tech -13.7 -9.1 -12.4
Michigan Western Michigan 32.7 29.3 32.3
Charlotte Appalachian St. -12.7 -11.6 -13.9
Purdue Eastern Michigan 21.3 18.2 19.5
Wisconsin New Mexico 38.8 33.8 39.2
Florida Atlantic Air Force 9.6 10.2 11.4
Old Dominion Florida Int’l. 2.3 2.3 1.7
Northwestern Duke 4.6 5.0 5.8
Kansas St. Mississippi St. -13.1 -11.1 -13.8
Houston Arizona -3.9 -0.5 -3.2
Vanderbilt Nevada 8.4 9.3 8.3
North Carolina St. Georgia St. 39.1 35.2 38.0
Oklahoma UCLA 26.6 25.4 29.8
Utah St. New Mexico St. 24.4 22.9 25.7
Central Michigan Kansas -4.9 0.0 -2.1
UNLV UTEP 23.6 22.0 24.9
Navy Memphis -7.7 -7.0 -9.9
East Carolina North Carolina -21.0 -20.9 -21.5
Ohio St. Rutgers 31.0 29.4 33.6
Temple Buffalo 0.8 -1.6 0.1
South Carolina Georgia -15.8 -12.1 -18.0
UTSA Baylor -21.3 -14.2 -19.8
Alabama Arkansas St. 48.6 44.4 48.6
Nebraska Colorado 2.6 -0.8 -1.4
Southern Miss. UL-Monroe -2.3 1.7 -2.6
Notre Dame Ball St. 50.4 44.0 49.2
Iowa Iowa St. 4.8 4.1 4.3
Bowling Green Maryland -17.1 -15.0 -15.2
Georgia Southern Massachusetts -4.8 -5.6 -6.7
Texas A&M Clemson -17.8 -15.5 -18.6
Missouri Wyoming 19.6 17.8 21.4
Indiana Virginia -1.3 -2.9 -0.2
Florida Kentucky 10.4 9.2 11.4
Northern Illinois Utah -12.8 -9.8 -13.7
Minnesota Fresno St. 0.5 1.3 0.3
Colorado St. Arkansas -25.8 -21.6 -24.0
Miami (O) Cincinnati 2.9 3.9 4.8
Texas Tulsa 20.9 20.9 19.4
Oklahoma St. South Alabama 34.3 29.4 32.3
Pittsburgh Penn St. -8.7 -5.7 -9.7
Stanford USC 10.8 9.7 12.2
BYU California -8.0 -4.4 -7.0
Boise St. Connecticut 34.4 33.8 36.9
Arizona St. Michigan St. -15.1 -14.3 -16.2
Washington St. San Jose St. 35.3 33.6 36.0
Hawaii Rice 13.3 12.4 13.1

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Wyoming Louisiana Tech
Cure AAC SBC Navy Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Western Kentucky Louisiana-Lafayette
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Ohio U Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC Cincinnati Buffalo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas AAC CUSA Central Florida North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC [UAB] [UL-Monroe]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [BYU]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Atlantic Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Army]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Air Force] Colorado
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten North Carolina St. Minnesota
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville Arkansas
Camping World ACC Big 12 Boston College West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Oregon
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large TCU Boise St.
Military AAC ACC South Florida Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech Utah
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Washington St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern LSU
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Fiesta At-large At-large USC Ohio St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Florida
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Notre Dame
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
National Championship Game Semifinal Winners Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 1: September 6-10, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:13 am

PiRate Ratings NFL Ratings for Week 1

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 105.4 106.2 105.4 105.7 20
Miami 97.4 96.4 97.4 97.0 21.5
N. Y. Jets 96.8 96.8 97.2 96.9 22.5
Buffalo 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.3 18.5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.0 106.2 105.6 105.9 22
Baltimore 99.6 100.4 99.9 100.0 23
Cincinnati 97.5 97.6 97.3 97.5 20
Cleveland 94.4 94.1 94.6 94.4 22
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Jacksonville 103.1 102.9 103.3 103.1 21.5
Houston 99.1 99.1 98.8 99.0 24.5
Tennessee 97.3 97.6 97.1 97.3 21.5
Indianapolis 94.7 92.9 94.4 94.0 22
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 102.7 102.7 102.8 102.7 23.5
LA Chargers 101.9 103.0 102.2 102.4 20
Denver 98.5 98.1 97.7 98.1 21
Oakland 95.9 96.4 96.2 96.2 21
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Philadelphia 102.5 103.1 101.9 102.5 23.5
Dallas 99.7 99.8 99.5 99.7 21
Washington 98.5 97.6 98.6 98.2 22
N.Y. Giants 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 19.5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Minnesota 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.5 19.5
Detroit 101.1 100.9 101.0 101.0 24.5
Green Bay 100.6 102.1 100.3 101.0 22.5
Chicago 98.8 98.1 99.3 98.7 18.5
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New Orleans 107.2 107.2 107.4 107.3 23.5
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.8 104.5 21.5
Carolina 101.9 101.3 102.0 101.7 22
Tampa Bay 94.4 93.9 94.9 94.4 22
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
LA Rams 104.6 105.7 105.1 105.1 25.5
Seattle 101.0 100.7 101.0 100.9 21.5
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5
Arizona 99.3 98.5 98.9 98.9 20.5

Week 1 PiRate Ratings Spread & Totals

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Philadelphia Atlanta 0.6 1.4 -0.4 45
Cleveland Pittsburgh -9.5 -10.1 -9.0 44
Minnesota San Francisco 9.2 8.7 9.1 43
Indianapolis Cincinnati -0.8 -2.8 -0.9 42
Baltimore Buffalo 7.7 8.6 8.2 41.5
N.Y. Giants Jacksonville -3.9 -3.7 -4.1 41
New Orleans Tampa Bay 15.8 16.3 15.5 45.5
New England Houston 8.8 9.7 9.1 44.5
Miami Tennessee 2.0 0.8 2.3 43
L.A. Chargers Kansas City 2.3 3.3 2.4 43.5
Denver Seattle 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 42.5
Carolina Dallas 4.7 4.0 5.0 43
Arizona Washington 4.3 4.3 3.8 42.5
Green Bay Chicago 4.7 7.0 4.0 41
Detroit N.Y. Jets 7.2 7.1 6.8 47
Oakland L.A. Rams -6.7 -7.3 -6.9 46.5

2018-19  Won-Loss Projections & Playoff Projections

AFC
East W L T
New England 12 4 0
Miami 6 10 0
N. Y. Jets 6 10 0
Buffalo 4 12 0
North W L T
Pittsburgh 12 4 0
Baltimore 8 8 0
Cincinnati 6 10 0
Cleveland 4 12 0
South W L T
Jacksonville 10 6 0
Houston 9 7 0
Tennessee 8 8 0
Indianapolis 5 11 0
West W L T
Los Angeles 11 5 0
Kansas City 9 7 0
Denver 7 9 0
Oakland 6 10 0
N F C
East W L T
Philadelphia 10 6 0
Dallas 7 9 0
Washington 5 11 0
N.Y. Giants 4 12 0
North W L T
Minnesota 12 4 0
Green Bay 10 6 0
Detroit 9 7 0
Chicago 7 9 0
South W L T
New Orleans 11 5 0
Atlanta 10 6 0
Carolina 9 7 0
Tampa Bay 6 10 0
West W L T
Los Angeles 12 4 0
Seattle 8 8 0
Arizona 7 9 0
San Francisco 6 10 0

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 L.A. Chargers
4 Jacksonville
5 Kansas City
6 Houston
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 New Orleans
4 Philadelphia
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Jacksonville over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Green Bay
Atlanta over New Orleans
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Atlanta
Philadelphia over Minnesota
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia
Super Bowl 53
Pittsburgh over L.A. Rams

 

August 27, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 1

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:55 am

Since only a handful of games were played in Week 0, and the ratings barely moved, we will dispense with posting a new set of ratings this week and feature just our spreads for Week 1 and combine our Selections against the Spread For Week 1, as there are no NFL games this weekend.

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, August 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Connecticut Central Florida -24.2 -23.5 -25.4
Purdue Northwestern -4.0 -3.2 -5.8
Minnesota New Mexico St. 27.5 23.4 26.3
Tulane Wake Forest -12.8 -10.4 -10.7
Friday, August 31
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Michigan St. Utah St. 33.9 29.8 33.1
Western Michigan Syracuse -12.2 -7.8 -9.2
Wisconsin Western Kentucky 45.7 37.6 45.2
Colorado (n) Colorado St. 13.7 13.5 14.5
Stanford San Diego St. 24.6 21.0 24.2
Duke Army 20.2 16.5 19.4
Saturday, September 1
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Oklahoma Florida Atlantic 20.5 17.7 19.6
Rice Houston -26.2 -24.5 -29.0
Ohio St. Oregon St. 36.1 35.8 38.2
Penn St. Appalachian St. 36.8 31.6 35.9
Nebraska Akron 12.9 9.6 10.0
Boston College Massachusetts 27.5 21.3 25.2
Illinois Kent St. 16.2 14.5 15.8
Rutgers Texas St. 30.5 25.7 28.7
Florida Int’l. Indiana -13.3 -7.0 -12.2
Iowa Northern Illinois 20.0 15.1 18.4
Maryland (n) Texas -18.4 -19.2 -19.8
Troy Boise St. -14.9 -12.1 -13.7
South Alabama Louisiana Tech -9.8 -10.1 -10.0
Miami (O) Marshall -0.3 -0.7 0.9
North Texas SMU -0.6 3.9 1.1
Vanderbilt Middle Tennessee 6.9 5.6 4.6
Arizona BYU 17.0 13.6 16.7
Arizona St. UTSA 28.2 20.6 25.2
USC UNLV 26.4 22.9 25.1
UCLA Cincinnati 18.4 16.7 16.5
Auburn (n) Washington -4.6 -2.3 -4.8
Kentucky Central Michigan 24.5 19.2 23.6
Texas Tech (n) Ole Miss 0.7 -1.0 -1.9
South Carolina Coastal Carolina 42.2 37.8 41.1
West Virginia (n) Tennessee 11.2 9.2 10.7
California North Carolina 9.5 7.6 10.1
Wyoming Washington St. -4.5 -2.8 -2.5
Oregon Bowling Green 32.3 32.2 32.3
Liberty Old Dominion -9.8 -14.9 -12.3
Notre Dame Michigan 6.9 3.9 4.0
Alabama (n) Louisville 28.4 25.5 30.7
Hawaii Navy -17.6 -18.6 -19.4
Sunday, September 2
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
LSU (n) Miami (Fla.) -10.2 -7.9 -9.4
Monday, September 3
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Florida St. Virginia Tech 0.2 0.1 0.2

(n) means neutral site game, but some teams may receive a little advantage for playing close to home.

FBS vs. FCS Games–PiRate Rating Spread Only

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Ball St. Central Conn. 5.1
Georgia St. Kennesaw St. 3.6
Oklahoma St. Missouri St. 40.9
San Jose St. UC-Davis -0.9
Texas A&M Northwestern St. 40.6
UAB Savannah St. 28.8
Utah Weber St. 22.0
Eastern Michigan Monmouth 20.0
Air Force Stony Brook 13.7
Arkansas Eastern Illinois 29.8
Arkansas St. SE Missouri 24.9
Baylor Abilene Christian 31.3
Buffalo Delaware St. 38.6
Charlotte Fordham 10.8
Clemson Furman 43.7
East Carolina N.C. A&T 9.9
Florida Chas. Southern 32.5
Fresno St. Idaho 21.0
Georgia Austin Peay 47.8
Georgia Southern S. Carolina St. 22.3
Georgia Tech Alcorn St. 39.9
Iowa St. South Dakota St. 16.5
Kansas Nicholls St. 10.6
Kansas St. South Dakota 25.2
La.-Monroe SE Louisiana 10.1
Louisiana Grambling 10.2
Memphis Mercer 32.9
Mississippi St. S F Austin 44.3
Missouri UT-Martin 29.3
N. Carolina St. James Madison 17.2
Nevada Portland St. 21.0
New Mexico Incarnate Word 27.8
Ohio U Howard 34.7
Pittsburgh Albany 30.1
South Florida Elon 28.7
Southern Miss. Jackson St. 35.4
TCU Southern 47.6
Temple Villanova 18.8
Toledo VMI 42.4
Tulsa Central Arkansas 10.0
UTEP Northern Arizona -6.0
Virginia Richmond 15.6

PiRate Ratings Picks Versus The Spread

This year, we are going to stick our necks out and go with straight spread and totals wagering in our imaginary picks with an imaginary bank account.

Remember: We never lose money on these picks, because they are strictly for fun.  We suggest you use these selections the same way.

Unless otherwise stated, all of our pretend picks will be for $100 imaginary.

Date 8/27-9/3 $100 per pick
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Purdue Northwestern 2 1/2 Northwestern
Michigan St. Utah St. 23 Michigan St.
Penn St. Appalachian St. 23 1/2 Penn St.
Nebraska Akron 24 1/2 Akron
Iowa Northern Illinois 10 Iowa
Texas Maryland 13 Texas
California North Carolina 7 California

 

 

 

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