The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7: October 18-22, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Oakland Kansas City -1.6 -1.2 -2.4 42
Cleveland Tennessee -4.3 -3.9 -3.8 44
Indianapolis Jacksonville -2.2 -2.0 -2.7 49
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 7.2 7.0 7.0 36
Minnesota Baltimore 2.7 2.5 2.6 36
Miami N. Y. Jets 6.7 7.0 6.1 36
Buffalo Tampa Bay 3.9 4.5 4.4 45
Chicago Carolina -3.3 -2.6 -3.9 47
Green Bay New Orleans 2.3 3.6 1.7 56
LA Rams (London) Arizona -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 47
San Franciso Dallas -6.5 -6.4 -6.2 51
N. Y. Giants Seattle 1.9 1.6 2.1 34
LA Chargers Denver -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 43
New England Atlanta 3.9 4.6 3.6 53
Philadelphia Washington 6.7 5.9 7.4 49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.3 104.9 104.0 104.4 23 4-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 101.0 100.7 21 3-2-0
Miami 97.3 97.2 96.9 97.1 18 3-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 18 3-3-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 104.8 105.0 104.8 104.9 20 4-2-0
Baltimore 100.4 100.8 100.4 100.5 19 3-3-0
Cincinnati 100.1 100.5 100.2 100.3 16 2-3-0
Cleveland 91.1 91.6 91.2 91.3 19 0-6-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.9 101.1 100.6 100.9 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 3-3-0
Tennessee 98.4 98.4 98.0 98.3 25 3-3-0
Indianapolis 93.2 93.6 92.5 93.1 25 2-4-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.0 105.3 105.3 105.2 21 5-1-0
Denver 102.0 101.6 102.1 101.9 19 3-2-0
Oakland 100.5 101.1 99.9 100.5 21 2-4-0
LA Chargers 99.6 99.2 99.6 99.5 24 2-4-0
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 104.8 103.7 105.7 104.7 23 5-1-0
Dallas 102.3 101.8 102.1 102.1 26 2-3-0
N.Y. Giants 101.2 101.1 101.1 101.2 15 1-5-0
Washington 100.0 99.8 100.3 100.0 26 3-2-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Green Bay 102.3 102.7 102.1 102.4 25 4-2-0
Detroit 101.2 101.7 101.1 101.4 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.0 100.3 100.0 100.1 17 4-2-0
Chicago 94.7 95.0 94.6 94.8 21 2-4-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.3 30 3-2-0
New Orleans 103.0 102.1 103.5 102.9 31 3-2-0
Carolina 101.1 100.5 101.5 101.0 26 4-2-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.6 99.4 24 2-3-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.5 102.8 19 3-2-0
Arizona 97.5 97.5 97.3 97.4 25 3-3-0
LA Rams 95.7 95.4 96.1 95.7 22 4-2-0
San Francisco 93.3 93.0 93.4 93.2 25 0-6-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Denver
6 Miami
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Carolina
3 Los Angeles
4 Minnesota
5 Atlanta
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Houston over Denver
Los Angeles over Washington
Atlanta over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Los Angeles over Carolina
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Kansas City

 

 

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October 16, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 19-21, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:52 am

This week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Louisiana-Lafayette 9.0 8.7 10.4
Houston Memphis 0.4 0.6 0.1
Old Dominion Western Kentucky -8.3 -5.2 -9.3
Middle Tennessee Marshall -1.8 -2.2 -3.0
Nevada Air Force -2.8 -1.4 -1.4
New Mexico Colorado St. -12.0 -11.0 -11.5
Army Temple 8.3 7.8 9.1
Wisconsin Maryland 24.0 18.8 22.7
Texas Tech Iowa St. 0.7 -0.1 -1.0
Toledo Akron 15.0 12.3 15.4
Missouri Idaho 16.4 12.4 14.6
Northwestern Iowa 4.2 2.4 4.6
Connecticut Tulsa -11.3 -8.5 -10.9
Florida St. Louisville 13.9 13.3 13.1
Rutgers Purdue -6.2 -5.9 -7.4
Duke Pittsburgh 7.3 5.9 6.8
Virginia Boston College 6.3 5.6 7.0
Georgia St. Troy -5.0 -5.9 -4.3
Eastern Michigan Western Michigan -0.7 0.0 -1.6
Ohio U Kent St. 14.1 14.2 14.5
Bowling Green Northern Illinois -5.6 -4.4 -5.4
Miami (O) Buffalo 7.3 6.8 6.2
Ball St. Central Michigan -12.4 -11.0 -11.7
Minnesota Illinois 19.7 19.1 20.7
Virginia Tech North Carolina 18.4 18.7 20.0
Michigan St. Indiana 1.5 3.5 1.6
Alabama Tennessee 37.4 34.7 38.2
Appalachian St. Coastal Carolina 30.8 27.5 29.5
Navy Central Florida -11.4 -12.6 -12.5
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 13.7 13.3 13.9
Massachusetts Georgia Southern 10.5 8.3 10.9
Utah Arizona St. 4.4 7.0 4.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma -6.6 -5.6 -7.0
TCU Kansas 42.5 37.0 44.1
Texas Oklahoma St. -7.9 -6.1 -8.5
UCLA Oregon 0.1 2.1 0.5
Cincinnati SMU -9.3 -7.2 -8.5
Mississippi St. Kentucky -0.3 1.4 0.6
South Alabama Louisiana-Monroe 8.0 9.8 9.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 8.7 10.0 9.3
UNLV Utah St. -3.1 0.0 -2.4
Charlotte UAB 1.7 0.5 -0.2
Tulane South Florida -14.1 -12.5 -14.8
UTSA Rice 19.8 20.7 21.2
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 3.6 4.0 4.2
East Carolina BYU -9.0 -6.7 -9.0
Ole Miss LSU -6.3 -6.1 -8.6
Arkansas Auburn -18.6 -17.2 -19.1
Georgia Tech Wake Forest 11.7 10.6 10.5
Penn St. Michigan 18.2 15.9 19.9
Notre Dame USC 2.3 1.5 3.2
Baylor West Virginia -8.3 -7.0 -8.7
California Arizona 3.9 2.7 3.3
Boise St. Wyoming 11.3 10.9 12.4
San Diego St. Fresno St. 9.4 11.0 9.7
Washington St. Colorado 10.7 9.8 12.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings–Ranks the teams based on what they have done to date.  This rating is better to gauge what the teams have done so far rather than how they might fare going forward.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.7
2 Penn St. 130.8
3 Georgia 130.6
4 TCU 129.3
5 Clemson 128.7
6 Ohio St. 128.5
7 Wisconsin 127.9
8 Miami (Fla) 127.0
9 Notre Dame 126.7
10 USC 126.4
11 Central Florida 126.2
12 Washington 125.8
13 Oklahoma St. 125.1
14 Oklahoma 124.9
15 Stanford 124.2
16 Michigan St. 123.7
17 Michigan 123.3
18 North Carolina St. 123.0
19 Washington St. 122.2
20 Virginia Tech 121.6
21 South Florida 121.5
22 Texas A&M 121.2
23 Auburn 120.8
24 Iowa 119.9
25 San Diego St. 119.4
26 Mississippi St. 118.9
27 Florida St. 118.8
28 Memphis 118.6
29 Wake Forest 117.3
30 Texas Tech 116.8
31 West Virginia 116.4
32 LSU 116.3
33 Kentucky 116.1
34 Boise St. 115.9
35 Navy 115.2
36 South Carolina 114.7
37 Virginia 113.8
38 Toledo 113.1
39 Iowa St. 112.0
40 Utah 110.9
41 Oregon 110.5
42 California 110.1
43 Texas 110.0
44 Arizona St. 109.8
45 Georgia Tech 109.5
46 Florida 109.2
47 Louisville 108.7
48 Arizona 108.5
49 Purdue 107.7
50 Northwestern 107.4
51 Houston 106.9
52 Duke 106.3
53 Colorado St. 105.8
54 Indiana 104.6
55 Syracuse 103.9
56 UCLA 103.4
57 Marshall 103.2
58 Western Michigan 103.1
59 Fresno St. 103.0
60 Colorado 102.8
61 Minnesota 102.1
62 SMU 101.8
63 Maryland 101.6
64 Northern Illinois 101.5
65 Boston College 100.9
66 Appalachian St. 100.4
67 Troy 100.0
68 Kansas St. 99.7
69 Army 98.6
70 Ole Miss 97.2
71 North Texas 97.1
72 Tennessee 96.7
73 Nebraska 96.4
74 Louisiana Tech 96.3
75 Vanderbilt 95.6
76 Southern Miss. 95.2
77 Florida Atlantic 95.0
78 Tulane 94.8
79 Akron 94.6
80 Wyoming 94.5
81 Arkansas 92.9
82 Ohio 92.8
83 Western Kentucky 92.6
84 Air Force 92.0
85 Arkansas St. 91.8
86 Tulsa 91.7
87 Pittsburgh 91.3
88 New Mexico 91.1
89 UTSA 90.7
90 Temple 90.2
91 Utah St. 89.9
92 North Carolina 89.5
93 Buffalo 89.3
94 Florida Int’l. 88.7
95 UAB 88.1
96 Middle Tennessee 87.0
97 Cincinnati 85.7
98 Rutgers 85.1
99 New Mexico St. 84.2
100 Eastern Michigan 83.9
101 UL-Monroe 83.6
102 Georgia St. 83.4
103 UL-Lafayette 81.9
104 Illinois 81.2
105 UNLV 81.0
106 Central Michigan 80.7
107 Miami (O) 80.5
108 Baylor 80.4
109 Missouri 80.4
110 South Alabama 80.3
111 Oregon St. 79.9
112 Hawaii 79.7
113 BYU 79.6
114 Connecticut 79.5
115 Idaho 79.4
116 Nevada 78.9
117 Kent St. 78.7
118 Old Dominion 78.1
119 East Carolina 77.8
120 Bowling Green 77.5
121 Ball St. 77.0
122 Kansas 76.2
123 Rice 75.7
124 Georgia Southern 75.3
125 Massachusetts 75.1
126 Coastal Carolina 74.6
127 San Jose St. 74.2
128 UTEP 73.5
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 71.9

Predictive Ratings–This rating is a forward-looking rating trying to predict the outcome of future games.  Unlike other predictive ratings, ours are geared toward only each teams’ next game, because we adjust our ratings based on many factors that cannot be reflected just from the score of the games.  A team that is predicted to win by 14 points that wins by exactly 14 points might be expected to retain an identical rating the following week, but we adjust for things like depth, how the score became a 14-point victory, how the teams’ past opponents fared during the week (more weight given to recent games than early games), etc.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
3 Penn St. 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
4 Washington 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
5 Clemson 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
6 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
7 Oklahoma St. 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
8 Auburn 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
9 Florida St. 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
10 Oklahoma 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
11 Miami 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
12 Wisconsin 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
13 Stanford 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
14 T C U 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
15 U S C 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
17 N. Carolina St. 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
18 Notre Dame 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
19 Washington St. 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
20 Georgia Tech 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
21 L S U 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
22 Texas 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
23 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
24 Michigan 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
25 Florida 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
26 South Florida 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
27 Kansas St. 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
28 Louisville 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
29 Northwestern 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
30 Kentucky 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
31 West Virginia 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
32 Syracuse 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
33 Iowa 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
34 Iowa State 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
35 Texas A&M 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
36 Mississippi St. 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
37 S. Carolina 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
38 Utah 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
39 Colorado 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
40 Duke 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
41 Wake Forest 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
42 Oregon 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
43 Texas Tech 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
44 Colo. State 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
45 Indiana 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
46 Virginia 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
47 Arizona St. 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
48 Minnesota 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
49 U C L A 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
50 California 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
51 Michigan St. 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
52 Ole Miss 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
53 Arizona 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
54 Memphis 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
55 Purdue 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
56 Pittsburgh 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
59 Arkansas 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
60 N. Carolina 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
61 Boston College 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
63 Houston 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
64 Maryland 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
65 Navy 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
66 San Diego St. 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
67 Nebraska 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
69 Baylor 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
70 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
71 SMU 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
72 Army 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
73 Tulsa 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
75 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
76 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
77 Tulane 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
78 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
79 Rutgers 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
80 Fresno St. 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
81 U T S A 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
82 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
83 W. Kentucky 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
84 Florida Atlantic 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
85 Oregon St. 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
86 Marshall 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
87 Air Force 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
88 Temple 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
89 BYU 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
90 Arkansas St. 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
91 Utah St. 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
93 New Mexico 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
95 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
96 Louisiana Tech 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
97 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
98 Akron 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
99 N. Mexico St. 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
100 Illinois 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
101 Cincinnati 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
102 Southern Miss. 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
103 Middle Tennessee 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
104 Nevada 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
105 S. Alabama 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
106 U N L V 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
107 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
108 N. Texas 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
109 Hawaii 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
110 Georgia St. 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
111 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
112 Massachusetts 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
113 Connecticut 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
114 Idaho 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
115 Florida Int’l. 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
116 Old Dominion 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
117 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
118 Kansas 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
119 UL-Monroe 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
120 East Carolina 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 UAB 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
127 Charlotte 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 U T E P 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
129 Texas St. 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
130 Coastal Carolina 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 3-0 5-0 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
South Florida 3-0 6-0 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
Temple 1-3 3-4 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
Cincinnati 0-3 2-5 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
Connecticut 1-3 2-4 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
East Carolina 1-3 1-6 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-1 5-1 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
Houston 2-1 4-2 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
Navy 3-1 5-1 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-2 2-5 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
Tulane 1-1 3-3 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
             
AAC Averages     97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
Florida St. 2-2 2-3 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
Louisville 1-3 4-3 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
Syracuse 2-1 4-3 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
Boston College 1-3 3-4 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 3-0 5-0 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
Duke 1-3 4-3 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
Virginia 2-0 5-1 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
Pittsburgh 0-3 2-5 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
N. Carolina 0-4 1-6 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 2-1 5-1 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
Oklahoma 2-1 5-1 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
T C U 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
Texas 2-1 3-3 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
Kansas St. 1-2 3-3 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
West Virginia 2-1 4-2 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
Iowa State 2-1 4-2 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
Texas Tech 1-2 4-2 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
Baylor 0-3 0-6 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
Kansas 0-3 1-5 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
             
Big 12 Averages     109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
Michigan 2-1 5-1 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
Indiana 0-3 3-3 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
Michigan St. 3-0 5-1 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
Maryland 1-2 3-3 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
Rutgers 1-2 2-4 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 3-0 6-0 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
Northwestern 1-2 3-3 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
Iowa 1-2 4-2 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
Minnesota 0-3 3-3 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
Purdue 1-2 3-3 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
Illinois 0-3 2-4 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 2-1 4-2 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
Marshall 2-0 5-1 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
Middle Tennessee 1-2 3-4 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
Old Dominion 0-2 2-4 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
Charlotte 0-3 0-7 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-2 3-2 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
Southern Miss. 2-1 4-2 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
N. Texas 3-0 4-2 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
Rice 1-1 1-5 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
U T E P 0-3 0-7 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
Army   5-2 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
BYU   1-6 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
             
Indep. Averages     98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 2-1 5-2 92.0 93.3 92.8 92.7
Miami (O) 1-2 2-5 88.2 90.3 89.3 89.3
Akron 3-0 4-3 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
Buffalo 1-2 3-4 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Bowling Green 1-2 1-6 81.5 82.5 82.1 82.0
Kent St. 1-2 2-5 80.3 81.7 80.8 80.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 2-0 5-1 100.6 100.5 101.9 101.0
Western Michigan 2-1 4-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-4 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 2-0 4-2 90.9 90.7 91.6 91.0
Central Michigan 1-2 3-4 87.7 88.6 88.1 88.1
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.2 76.4 75.4 75.3
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 3-0 5-2 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
Boise St. 2-0 4-2 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
Wyoming 2-0 4-2 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
Air Force 1-2 2-4 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
Utah St. 1-2 3-4 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-2 3-3 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-1 6-1 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
Fresno St. 3-0 4-2 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
Nevada 1-2 1-6 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
U N L V 1-2 2-4 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
Stanford 4-1 5-2 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
Oregon 1-3 4-3 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
California 1-3 4-3 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-1 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
Utah 1-2 4-2 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
Colorado 1-3 4-3 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
Arizona St. 2-1 3-3 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
U C L A 1-2 3-3 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
Arizona 2-1 4-2 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
Florida 3-2 3-3 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
Kentucky 2-1 5-1 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
Tennessee 0-3 3-3 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
Missouri 0-4 1-5 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-0 7-0 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
Auburn 3-1 5-2 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
L S U 2-1 5-2 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
Mississippi St. 1-2 4-2 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
Ole Miss 1-2 3-3 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
Arkansas 0-3 2-4 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 3-0 4-2 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
Troy 1-1 4-2 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
Arkansas St. 2-0 3-2 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
S. Alabama 1-1 2-4 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
Georgia St. 2-0 3-2 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-3 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
Idaho 1-2 2-4 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
UL-Monroe 3-1 3-3 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-5 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
Coastal Carolina 0-3 1-5 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
3 BIG 12 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
4 PAC-12 110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
7 AAC 97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
8 MWC 92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
9 MAC 88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

Bowl Projections

You probably see bowl projections from many sites, and from what we have learned, many of them just throw teams into the slots based on how they think in their head without really looking at the remaining schedules and then plotting how the committees will allot teams.

The PiRates project the won-loss records of all 130 teams every week, and then look at the bowls as the committees and leagues would look at them.  Thus, ours are always going to be a bit unique and will not follow in lockstep with the big sites where they really do not have a lot of time to devote to this task.  This feature actually takes up more time than anything else we do other than our college basketball March Madness submissions.

Thus, rather than just state the bowl projections this week, how about we explain our selections.  Also, we apologize for all the abbreviations, but apparently many of you that use your phone to access our site cannot read this feature unless we do so.  Tabular data can be difficult at times to display in an aesthetically brilliant manner.

American Athletic Conference

Central Florida and South Florida could be heading to an incredible final regular season game, where the winner not only takes the East Division title, but they enter AAC Championship play undefeated as the odds-on favorite to snag the New Year’s 6 Bowl invitation.  If by some strange possibility that there are less than three one-loss or undefeated Power 5 conference teams, then an undefeated UCF or USF might have an outside shot at making the playoffs.

In the West, Houston, Memphis, and Navy look to vie for the division flag, with SMU also an outside possibility.  We like the Cougars to cop that flag, mostly because they host Memphis this week and should bounce back with their best game of the month.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: With the AAC Champion predicted to make the NY6 bowl, this league needs 8 bowl eligible teams to fill its contracts, so having just 6 bowl eligible teams will open up two bowls (Birmingham & Gasparilla) to at-large entries.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson’s loss to Syracuse doesn’t end the Tigers’ shot at defending their national title, as this loss was about on par with last year’s loss to Pittsburgh.  However, in order to get there, CU must win out, and that includes having to beat NC State in Raleigh and then the Coastal Division champion in the ACC Championship Game.  At this point, our belief is that it will not happen for the Tigers this season.

Miami has survived close games against Florida State and Georgia Tech the last two weeks.  The Hurricanes have to fend off Virginia Tech and the up and coming Virginia Cavaliers, and we think Mark Richt’s team will be able to make it to the ACC Championship Game.

For the time being, our belief is that North Carolina State will hold off Clemson and then take out Miami to win the ACC Championship, but we also believe the Wolf Pack will lose one conference game, leaving them with a record of 11-2, which will keep them out of the playoffs.

Notre Dame figures in the ACC Bowl Tie-ins, as the Irish can trump any ACC team that has just one more victory than they do.  In other words, if Virginia goes 10-2, and Notre Dame goes 9-3, the Irish can jump over the Cavs in the bowl pecking order.

As of today, we have Notre Dame pegged for a 10-2 finish, which will not give them a good enough slate to make the playoffs, but it will put them in the NY6 Bowl group.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 11 (which includes Notre Dame)

Result: Under this scenario, NC State would earn the Orange Bowl bid as the ACC Champion.  Notre Dame and one other team (Miami is our choice this week) would receive NY6 Bowls, while Clemson would fall to the Citrus Bowl.  Under this scenario, the ACC-Notre Dame alliance would actually need 12 bowl eligible teams, while they would have just 11 bowl eligible teams.  This would open up the Quick Lane Bowl for an at-large team.

Big 12

This is going to be highly ironic for this league.  The Big 12 kept losing out in the playoff picture due to a lack of having a conference championship game like the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.  This year, there will be a Big 12 Championship Game, but unlike the others, it will pit the number one versus the number two team in the standings.  Since the Big 12 teams all play each other, it guarantees a rematch for the title game.  There is just enough parity in this league this year that the number one team can sweep the number two team or vice versa.  Thus, the conference championship game could be the one factor that keeps the Big 12 out of the playoffs.  Yes, ironic indeed.

TCU is the lone unbeaten left in the league, but the Horned Frogs would have to win at Oklahoma and then beat one of the Oklahoma teams a second time in order to make the playoffs.  There are scenarios were TCU could lose to Oklahoma in the regular season and then win the Big 12 Championship Game and squeak into the playoffs, but for now, we believe there might be another scenario.  We currently project Oklahoma State to win out, including beating Oklahoma and then taking TCU in the rematch for the conference title.  At 12-1, we show Oklahoma State to be the #4 team entering the playoffs.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 7

Result: With Oklahoma State going to the Playoffs, and with the possibility that both Oklahoma and TCU could have two losses at the end of the season, we project no other conference team to receive a bid to a NY6 bowl.  With 7 projected bowl eligible teams, the league would have exactly the number needed to furnish its bowl obligations.

We came up with 7 bowl eligible teams, because we believe that two teams from among Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech will get to 6 wins, while one finishes 5-7.  For now, we believe there will be exactly 78 bowl eligible teams to fill the 78 slots, so no 5-7 teams will be needed to fill spots.

Big Ten

This is perhaps the most interesting league this year.  Ohio State lost early at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes were dismissed as a potential title-contender.  Remember that Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech the year they won the national championship in the very first playoff season.  Since losing at home to the Sooners, Urban Meyer’s team has done exactly what his Florida team did in 2008 after losing at home to Ole Miss.

Penn State is the darling team in this league at the present time, and the Nittany Lions should handle Michigan this week.  However, James Franklin’s squad has road dates against Michigan State and Ohio State lurking.  We believe Penn State can win in East Lansing, but Ohio State will be almost impossible to beat in Columbus.  The Buckeyes have been looking forward to getting revenge over last year’s upset loss in Happy Valley, and we believe Ohio State will win convincingly and then run the table.

The end of that table could be the demise of an undefeated season for Wisconsin, much like Iowa falling to Penn State in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.  If this happens, then both Penn State and Wisconsin will be one loss teams that both lost to a playoff team.  That, along with the huge fan bases, would be enough to propel both one-loss teams into NY6 bowls.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Putting Ohio State into the playoffs, and both Penn State and Wisconsin into NY6 bowls, the Big Ten would need 10 bowl eligible teams, while we project just 9 to make it.  Thus, the Armed Forces Bowl would need to find an at-large replacement.

Conference USA

Up to now, you have seen multiple bowls that will need at-large replacements for conferences that will not supply enough bowl-eligible teams, yet you have not seen us list a league with extra teams available.  CUSA is going to strike it rich this year, as this league should have quite an excess of bowl eligible teams after fulfilling the allotted contracts.

There is no overwhelming favorite in the league, even at the halfway point of the season.  Because of this, CUSA should produce double digit teams with at least 6 wins.

In the East, Western Kentucky is nothing like the 2016 Hilltopper team.  They are just starting to play good football, but it may be too late to win the division.  Middle Tennessee’s chances to win the division ended when star quarterback Brent Stockstill went down with an injury.  If he returns in time, the Blue Raiders can still salvage a 6-6 season.  Florida Atlantic and Florida International have shots at taking the division title, and both should become bowl eligible.

The team that the PiRates believe will win the East is Marshall.  Coach Doc Holliday is hands-down the best recruiter in the division and probably about equal with UTSA’s Frank Wilson for tops in the league.  Holliday could be on the radar of bigger schools if the Mountaineers take the conference title this year.

The West race is just as interesting.  North Texas and Louisiana Tech are the top two contenders, and the two teams play in Ruston on November 4.  We give LT the edge due to the home field advantage.

We have to mention possibly the most incredible feat of all, one that is going virtually unnoticed outside of the league.  UAB, a team that did not play for the past two years, returned to FBS football.  This was akin to SMU’s death penalty.  Nobody expected the Blazers to compete for bowl eligibility in their return to college football, with a 3-9 season considered the ceiling.  UAB not only figures to become bowl eligible, they are still in contention for the West Division title.  Coach Bill Clark needs to receive some National Coach of the Year votes for doing the almost impossible.  This is like a pro sports team expansion franchise making the playoffs in their first season.  Did you hear that Las Vegas Golden Knights fans?

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 10

Result: With no real shot at the NY6 bowl, CUSA will have to make do with its six bowl tie-ins.  However, we show 10 bowl eligible teams.  And, thanks to the fact that we show more than four bowl bids up for grabs that will need at-large teams, we believe all 10 bowl eligible teams will find spots.  It is also very possible that two CUSA teams will have to face each other in a bowl game.

Independents

With Notre Dame included in the ACC bowl picture, this really only leaves Army in this discussion, since BYU and UMass will finish on the wrong side of .500.  This is rather cut and dry.  Army needs a 6-6 record to automatically earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl, one of the bowls that will most likely need to find an at-large opponent, most likely from CUSA.

Mid-American Conference

There is still a chance for Toledo to ascend to the top of the Group of 5 hierarchy and earn a NY6 bowl bid.  The Rockets only loss was at undefeated Miami of Florida, and should Jason Candles’ team win out, and USF and UCF both lose, then Toledo could sneak in at the end and grab a Peach Bowl spot.  If this happens, the MAC will still have enough bowl eligible teams left to satisfy its bowl obligations, but the more likely scenario is that Toledo will have to settle for a regular MAC bowl, and the league will have one extra team ready to grab an at-large bid.  The MAC has a secondary bowl agreement with the Quick Lane Bowl, and we project this bowl to need an at-large entry, so everything should work out for the MAC to get six bowl bids instead of 5.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: Either Buffalo or Central Michigan figures to get to 6-6, and whichever team does will be rewarded with a trip to Detroit during the holidays.

Mountain West Conference

Boise State picked a fine time to look like the Broncos teams of 2006  and 2009.  Their pasting of San Diego State put this league behind the AAC and possibly the MAC in the race for the one NY6 Bowl for Group of 5 leagues.  Boise State has two losses, both to current one-loss teams, and that might be enough to limit the league to its regular five bids.

Because the West Division figures to have just two bowl eligible teams (San Diego State and Fresno State), the Mountain Division will need to supply three bowl eligible teams from among the parity in the division.  At this time, Air Force, Utah State and New Mexico have tough roads to get to 6-6, but Colorado State and Wyoming should join Boise State with enough wins.  In fact, this is still a three-team race for the division flag, and at the moment, we project Wyoming to win.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 5

Result: It will be interesting to see how the league will send its teams to the bowls this year, especially if Boise State and San Diego State both miss out on the title.  While the New Mexico and Hawaii Bowls are just fine with always inviting the home team, the Idaho Potato Bowl has been wont to invite somebody other than the Broncos to the field of blue.  We do not project New Mexico or Hawaii to become bowl eligible, so it should be quite interesting indeed to see where each league team goes after the champion gets the automatic bid to the Las Vegas Bowl.

Pac-12 Conference

This league took the biggest hit of all this past weekend when Washington and Washington State bowed out of the playoff race.  USC might still hold a slim chance of making it into the playoffs by winning out, which would include victories over Notre Dame in South Bend, Arizona State in Tempe, and Colorado in Boulder, plus the Conference Championship Game, but we do not forecast the Trojans to win out or even win the Pac-12 Championship.

With the recent turn of events, it could be that Stanford now holds the key to the Pac-12 bowl scramble.  The Cardinal lost at USC and at San Diego State, but since then, David Shaw’s squad looks the most complete.  With a home finale against Notre Dame, the possible Pac-12 champion could be 10-3, but even at 11-2, we do not see a way that Stanford (or any other Pac-12 team could get in the playoff).

The two Arizona schools had coaches on very hot seats before this past weekend, but Arizona State’s smashing of Washington, and Arizona’s trouncing of UCLA most likely gave Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez stays of execution if not outright commutations.

UCLA looks like the team hurting the most, and for Jim Mora, Jr., the bell might soon toll for him.  Chip Kelly might be the right person for this job.  Forget the eastern schools with openings; if UCLA offers him this job, Kelly will take it before he takes jobs like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Nebraska, or possibly Auburn if there is a move there.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: It is our belief that with no playoff teams, the league will get two teams in the NY6 bowl block.  The champion will get an automatic berth, and we believe that if Stanford wins out in the league, then either USC or Washington will get a bid to the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.

For now, we have both UCLA and Colorado just missing out on bowl eligibility, while we move California and the two Arizona teams into bowl eligibility.  There will be one extra team available to take an at-large bowl bid back in the east.  Arizona, you look like the perfect team to spend the holiday season in some rural Southern town.

Southeastern Conference 

There will be a mini-crisis or two coming forth from the SEC race this season.  First, and most obvious, it looks like there is more than a decent chance that both Alabama and Georgia could run the table and square off in the SEC Championship games sporting identical 12-0 records, with Alabama number one and Georgia number two.  We then expect a close game with the loser remaining in the top four, thus giving the SEC two teams in the playoffs.  Since the playoffs began, this has not happened.

The other mini-crisis involves the fact that this league now looks to be short in its bowl eligibility needs.  Missouri and Arkansas are headed to losing records, which will open at least one coaching job if not two.  Ole Miss is ineligible for bowl consideration, and both Tennessee and Vanderbilt appear to be headed to a season finale where both teams could be 5-6, so the loser will be out of the bowl picture.  Throw in the distinct possibility now that Florida could very well fall to 5-6 (had a game cancelled due to Hurricane Irma) and also miss out on a bowl.  That brings the number of bowl-ineligible SEC teams to  five, leaving 9 bowl-eligible teams.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Start with two teams making the playoffs.  This will mean that the Orange Bowl will choose to go elsewhere with their opponent to the ACC champion.  It will leave two bowls without an SEC representative, the Birmingham and the Independence.  Unfortunately for the Birmingham Bowl, it looks like it might need two at-large teams to face off at Legion Field on December 23.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N.  Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Wyoming Washington St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC UTSA Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Louisiana Tech
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Southern Miss.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Marshall Toledo
Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Boise St.
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 [Arizona] [Fla. Atlantic]
A.  Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
$ General MAC SBC Akron Appy St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Memphis San Diego St.
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Arizona
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Florida St. Iowa
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Miss. State
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Louisville
Camp.Wrld. ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Oklahoma
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Utah
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Syracuse California
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Notre Dame Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Tennessee
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Stanford
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large N.C.  St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma St.
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

October 12, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 12-14, 2017

Ouch!  We took it on the chin and everywhere else last week, as all four of our parlays went down in flames.  It wasn’t even close, as we were 0-4 quite quickly.

About all we accomplished in the last two weeks is that we now have two of our followers experimenting with their own formulas.  One is using IF bets, while the other is going with single games.  Neither of them accomplished what they hoped so far, but both are mathematically sound.  The issue is that there is a bit more parity in football this season, and the teams that you and we just know will win for sure go off at Money Line odds of -1000 or worse.  If you are totally sure that Ohio State will beat Nebraska, Mississippi State will beat BYU, Alabama will beat Arkansas, Oklahoma State will beat Baylor, Georgia will beat Missouri, South Florida will beat Cincinnati, Clemson will beat Syracuse, and Iowa State will beat Kansas, you can put down a wager on this parlay and feel about 85% confident you will win this wager.  And guess what you will receive for every $1 you wager on this “sure thing”?  If you bet $1 and win, you will receive $1.35 in winnings, which includes your original buck invested.  Yes, it would be a 35% return on your investment, and even Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman would accept a 35% ROI over 3 days in the investment.  But, they would still hold off on this one, because the Margin of Safety would not be there, and the chances of losing all of the investment would outweigh the chance to make a 35% profit in 3 days.

This week our little ship of buccaneers and queens of the sea were not in agreement on many supposed sure-thing winners that would allow us to construct parlays with odds of +120 or better.  We only came up with two parlays, one of which forced us to go four-deep in games.  We are in the hole a bit too much to risk additional funds on games we do not all believe can win.

We almost made a decision to double our investment on this week’s games, but the Captain warned us that doubling down almost always ballooned into something out of control.  If you lose $100 this week, bet $200 next week; if you lose again, then bet $400 the next week; then $800, $1,600, $3,200, etc.  If you get on a really cold streak, soon you are betting your house and car, and your family, and your kidney, etc.  So, we stick with equal unit wagers on all games.

REMEMBER THIS: We are playing with imaginary currency.  So, we actually could double down, because $200 of fake dough is equal to $100 of fake dough.  We do know that a large number of you reading this use the real stuff, so we are going to approach this weekly feature as if it was real.  Also, there are more than one of you that have told us that you modify our selections and our Ratings’ Spreads and actually do quite well with the data.  One of you has even told us about how you have been ultra successful, but we did not press this issue in order for you to keep your method private.  Any method that really works quickly doesn’t work once the world discovers the secret, because the odds then change, making the system worthless.

Here are our picks for this week.  We hope they are a tad better than worthless, but we have our doubts.

#1@ +170  
Must Win Must Lose
UL-Lafayette Texas St.
South Carolina Tennessee
San Diego St. Boise St.

 

#2 @ +137  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami (O) Kent St.
Temple Connecticut
Tulane Florida Int’l.
Houston Tulsa

 

October 10, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 6: October 11-15, 2017

This Week’s NFL PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Carolina Philadelphia 0.2 0.5 -0.3 49
Houston Cleveland 12.4 12.4 11.8 43
N. Y. Jets New England -8.6 -9.7 -8.2 41
Atlanta Miami 10.9 10.8 11.7 49
New Orleans Detroit 2.4 0.8 2.6 54
Minnesota Green Bay -2.1 -2.3 -2.0 45
Baltimore Chicago 11.5 11.2 11.9 38
Washington San Francisco 11.2 11.1 11.6 51
Jacksonville LA Rams 10.2 10.4 10.1 46
Arizona Tampa Bay -0.3 0.6 -1.0 46
Kansas City Pittsburgh 5.7 5.4 6.4 43
Oakland LA Chargers 3.7 4.6 3.1 48
Denver N. Y. Giants 7.8 6.9 8.6 34
Tennessee Indianapolis 7.0 6.7 6.9 49

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 100.3 100.4 100.8 100.5 21
Miami 96.5 96.5 95.9 96.3 18
New England 104.7 105.3 104.4 104.8 23
N. Y. Jets 93.5 93.1 93.7 93.5 18
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 101.8 102.0 102.0 101.9 18
Cincinnati 99.9 100.3 100.0 100.1 16
Cleveland 91.3 91.7 91.5 91.5 19
Pittsburgh 103.4 103.8 103.2 103.5 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 100.7 101.0 100.3 100.7 24
Indianapolis 93.6 93.9 93.0 93.5 24
Jacksonville 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 24
Tennessee 98.0 98.1 97.5 97.9 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 104.0 103.3 104.4 103.9 19
Kansas City 106.1 106.2 106.6 106.3 22
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.2 99.1 25
Oakland 100.9 101.5 100.3 100.9 23
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.1 101.6 101.9 101.9 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.8 99.2 15
Philadelphia 104.2 103.2 105.1 104.2 23
Washington 100.5 100.2 100.9 100.5 26
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 93.3 93.8 93.0 93.4 20
Detroit 102.4 103.0 102.5 102.7 24
Green Bay 103.9 104.3 103.7 104.0 28
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 17
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.7 104.5 31
Carolina 101.4 100.7 101.8 101.3 26
New Orleans 101.8 100.8 102.1 101.6 30
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.5 100.5 100.1 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 96.9 97.1 96.4 96.8 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.8 92.6 92.8 92.7 25
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 19

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Jacksonville
4 Cincinnati
5 Denver
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Green Bay
3 Atlanta
4 Seattle
5 Carolina
6 Detroit
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
Denver over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Detroit
Seattle over Carolina
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Denver over New England
Philadelphia over Seattle
Atlanta over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Denver
Philadelphia over Atlanta
 
Super Bowl 52
Kansas City over Philadelphia

 

October 9, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 11-14, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:14 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Troy South Alabama 15.8 13.1 15.4
Louisiana-Lafayette Texas St. 17.0 15.8 18.4
Syracuse Clemson -19.2 -18.2 -19.4
California Washington St. -16.5 -16.4 -17.8
Army Eastern Michigan 5.6 6.2 6.2
Temple Connecticut 14.9 12.3 15.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina St. -9.6 -8.6 -10.5
West Virginia Texas Tech 5.3 6.2 6.1
Tennessee South Carolina 0.0 -0.8 -0.9
Kansas St. TCU -2.2 0.0 -2.5
Illinois Rutgers -2.2 -0.8 -2.7
Iowa St. Kansas 25.1 22.6 26.9
Mississippi St. BYU 17.1 18.5 17.3
Indiana Michigan -6.7 -6.6 -5.7
Louisville Boston College 18.4 17.2 18.6
Air Force UNLV 8.9 7.0 9.1
Marshall Old Dominion 7.0 5.6 8.4
Oklahoma St. Baylor 24.4 21.1 25.2
Maryland Northwestern -4.9 -1.1 -4.9
Kent St. Miami (O) -8.4 -8.9 -9.2
Bowling Green Ohio U -6.3 -6.9 -6.2
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 0.6 0.0 -0.2
Wisconsin Purdue 23.0 17.8 20.8
North Carolina Virginia 4.2 3.7 1.3
Central Michigan Toledo -7.5 -6.7 -8.2
Buffalo Northern Illinois -2.7 -0.1 -1.2
Oklahoma (N) Texas 8.6 6.5 8.7
Western Michigan Akron 19.8 15.3 20.8
Miami (Fla.) Georgia Tech 9.3 9.3 10.7
Duke Florida St. -12.5 -12.3 -12.6
Florida Texas A&M 10.1 11.3 10.4
Alabama Arkansas 39.1 34.8 38.6
LSU Auburn -11.4 -10.7 -10.9
Memphis Navy 6.5 5.0 6.8
Tulsa Houston -8.1 -7.3 -8.7
Oregon St. Colorado -13.6 -12.1 -12.8
Utah St. Wyoming 0.0 0.2 0.7
Western Kentucky Charlotte 22.6 19.6 22.9
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia St. 0.1 1.4 -0.9
Idaho Appalachian St. -12.9 -8.4 -12.5
Georgia Southern New Mexico St. -7.4 -4.0 -7.9
UAB Middle Tennessee -17.5 -14.3 -16.0
Southern Miss. UTEP 17.5 15.5 17.3
North Texas UTSA -8.4 -8.4 -9.7
Central Florida East Carolina 34.1 34.0 35.7
Florida Int’l. Tulane -15.9 -15.5 -16.1
Arkansas St. Coastal Carolina 21.6 21.9 21.3
Georgia Missouri 31.4 34.1 32.9
Nebraska Ohio St. -29.5 -25.6 -30.1
South Florida Cincinnati 28.4 24.6 28.2
Minnesota Michigan St. 5.9 4.4 4.9
USC Utah 15.4 13.1 15.0
Arizona UCLA -3.6 -3.9 -4.3
Fresno St. New Mexico -1.7 -2.7 -2.0
Colorado St. Nevada 25.9 22.1 24.8
San Diego St. Boise St. 6.6 8.6 8.0
Arizona St. Washington -25.4 -22.8 -26.7
Stanford Oregon 9 10.2 9.1
Hawaii San Jose St. 13 14.0 13.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Penn St.
5 Georgia
6 Washington St.
7 TCU
8 Ohio St.
9 Wisconsin
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Notre Dame
12 USC
13 Central Florida
14 San Diego St.
15 Auburn
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Oklahoma
18 Michigan
19 Virginia Tech
20 North Carolina St.
21 South Florida
22 Stanford
23 Texas Tech
24 Navy
25 Michigan St.
26 Iowa
27 Mississippi St.
28 Wake Forest
29 Florida
30 Houston
31 Louisville
32 Kentucky
33 Utah
34 Oregon
35 Georgia Tech
36 Florida St.
37 Texas A&M
38 South Carolina
39 Texas
40 LSU
41 Memphis
42 Iowa St.
43 Maryland
44 Purdue
45 Toledo
46 Tennessee
47 Virginia
48 Duke
49 West Virginia
50 Minnesota
51 UCLA
52 Western Michigan
53 Boise St.
54 Colorado St.
55 Kansas St.
56 Troy
57 Arizona St.
58 Indiana
59 Vanderbilt
60 Colorado
61 Arizona
62 Northwestern
63 California
64 SMU
65 Marshall
66 Army
67 Appalachian St.
68 Nebraska
69 Northern Illinois
70 Tulane
71 Fresno St.
72 Boston College
73 Syracuse
74 Louisiana Tech
75 Southern Miss.
76 Arkansas
77 Florida Atlantic
78 Temple
79 North Texas
80 UTSA
81 Wyoming
82 Pittsburgh
83 Arkansas St.
84 Western Kentucky
85 Ole Miss
86 New Mexico
87 Utah St.
88 Ohio
89 North Carolina
90 Buffalo
91 Akron
92 Air Force
93 Middle Tennessee
94 Cincinnati
95 UL-Monroe
96 Eastern Michigan
97 Illinois
98 UNLV
99 Tulsa
100 New Mexico St.
101 Central Michigan
102 Miami (O)
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Baylor
105 Missouri
106 Oregon St.
107 Rutgers
108 UL-Lafayette
109 UAB
110 Georgia St.
111 Nevada
112 BYU
113 Old Dominion
114 Idaho
115 Hawaii
116 East Carolina
117 Bowling Green
118 Ball St.
119 Kent St.
120 Connecticut
121 South Alabama
122 Kansas
123 Georgia Southern
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Massachusetts
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Texas St.
130 Charlotte

Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 134.4 137.8 137.1
2 Ohio St. 134.3 131.6 134.0 133.3
3 Washington 130.5 127.4 131.2 129.7
4 Clemson 130.0 127.4 129.5 129.0
5 Penn St. 128.2 126.1 129.1 127.8
6 Auburn 126.9 124.7 127.0 126.2
7 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
8 Florida St. 123.3 121.9 122.1 122.5
9 Oklahoma St. 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
10 Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.6 121.8
11 Miami 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.4
12 Wisconsin 122.9 119.1 121.4 121.2
13 Washington St. 120.8 118.3 120.4 119.8
14 U S C 119.6 118.9 119.4 119.3
15 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 119.0 118.6
16 T C U 119.2 116.8 119.5 118.5
17 Notre Dame 117.4 116.0 118.1 117.1
18 N. Carolina St. 117.2 116.5 117.3 117.0
19 Stanford 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
20 Florida 115.2 114.2 114.6 114.7
21 Georgia Tech 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
22 Louisville 114.9 113.9 114.8 114.5
23 Michigan 114.4 114.4 113.8 114.2
24 Texas 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
25 Kansas St. 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
26 Central Florida 111.8 113.4 113.1 112.8
27 L S U 112.6 111.0 113.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
29 Kentucky 110.9 109.7 110.2 110.3
30 Oregon 111.4 108.8 110.5 110.2
31 West Virginia 109.7 110.3 109.9 110.0
32 Iowa 109.8 110.0 109.6 109.8
33 Northwestern 110.1 108.2 110.0 109.4
34 U C L A 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
35 Utah 107.2 108.8 107.4 107.8
36 Colorado 109.1 107.4 106.9 107.8
37 Mississippi St. 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
38 Texas Tech 107.4 107.0 106.8 107.1
39 Texas A&M 108.1 105.9 107.2 107.1
40 S. Carolina 107.7 106.8 106.7 107.1
41 Syracuse 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
42 Duke 107.8 106.7 106.6 107.0
43 Colo. State 107.4 105.9 107.7 107.0
44 Wake Forest 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
45 Iowa State 106.1 106.7 107.0 106.6
46 Minnesota 105.5 106.0 105.0 105.5
47 Houston 105.2 104.4 105.3 105.0
48 San Diego St. 104.5 104.7 105.6 104.9
49 Indiana 104.7 104.8 105.1 104.9
50 Pittsburgh 104.6 104.9 103.9 104.5
51 Vanderbilt 105.1 104.2 104.0 104.4
52 Memphis 104.5 103.8 104.8 104.3
53 N. Carolina 105.1 104.1 103.3 104.2
54 Virginia 103.9 103.4 105.0 104.1
55 Purdue 102.9 104.3 103.6 103.6
56 Tennessee 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
57 Michigan St. 102.5 104.6 103.1 103.4
58 Maryland 102.2 104.1 102.2 102.8
59 Arkansas 102.9 102.5 102.2 102.6
60 Western Michigan 102.1 100.5 103.5 102.0
61 Nebraska 101.8 103.0 100.9 101.9
62 Baylor 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
63 Arizona St. 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
64 Ole Miss 102.7 101.2 100.8 101.6
65 Navy 101.0 101.8 101.0 101.2
66 Arizona 101.9 100.9 100.6 101.1
67 Boise St. 100.9 99.1 100.6 100.2
68 California 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
69 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
70 Boston College 99.5 99.7 99.2 99.5
71 Tulane 98.6 98.6 99.3 98.8
72 Army 98.3 98.4 99.1 98.6
73 SMU 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.5
74 Appalachian St. 98.7 96.4 99.0 98.0
75 Troy 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Missouri 97.1 94.8 96.0 96.0
77 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
78 U T S A 94.3 96.1 96.1 95.5
79 New Mexico 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
80 Temple 94.5 94.8 94.6 94.6
81 Wyoming 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
82 Tulsa 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5
83 Rutgers 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
84 BYU 93.1 92.5 92.9 92.8
85 Air Force 92.3 92.8 92.6 92.6
86 Florida Atlantic 91.2 93.9 92.5 92.5
87 W. Kentucky 92.1 91.5 93.0 92.2
88 Oregon St. 92.5 92.3 91.0 91.9
89 Utah St. 92.4 91.4 91.9 91.9
90 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
91 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
92 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
93 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.1 90.9 90.5
94 Middle Tennessee 89.7 90.3 90.3 90.1
95 Fresno St. 90.3 89.0 90.8 90.1
96 Marshall 88.8 90.1 90.4 89.8
97 Louisiana Tech 88.5 90.1 89.4 89.4
98 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
99 Illinois 89.2 90.7 87.9 89.3
100 Cincinnati 86.8 89.1 88.1 88.0
101 N. Mexico St. 88.2 86.3 88.4 87.6
102 U N L V 86.4 88.7 86.5 87.2
103 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.9 86.9 87.1
104 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
105 Akron 85.3 88.2 85.7 86.4
106 Hawaii 85.9 86.9 85.7 86.2
107 Old Dominion 84.8 87.6 85.0 85.8
108 Nevada 84.5 86.8 85.9 85.7
109 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.2 85.0 85.4
110 Massachusetts 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
111 Kansas 84.0 87.1 83.1 84.8
112 N. Texas 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
113 Georgia St. 84.7 84.1 84.7 84.5
114 S. Alabama 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
115 Idaho 82.9 85.0 83.5 83.8
116 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
117 Connecticut 82.1 85.0 82.0 83.0
118 UL-Monroe 81.8 82.5 80.8 81.7
119 East Carolina 80.7 82.4 80.4 81.2
120 Florida Int’l. 80.1 80.6 80.7 80.5
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.8 79.3 77.5 78.2
123 San Jose St. 76.8 76.9 76.1 76.6
124 Rice 74.9 76.0 75.0 75.3
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 Charlotte 72.6 74.9 73.0 73.5
127 U T E P 72.2 75.3 72.6 73.4
128 Coastal Carolina 71.0 72.2 72.5 71.9
129 UAB 69.7 73.5 71.8 71.7
130 Texas St. 70.4 72.9 69.1 70.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 2-0 4-0 111.8 113.4 113.1 112.8
South Florida 2-0 5-0 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
Temple 1-2 3-3 94.5 94.8 94.6 94.6
Cincinnati 0-2 2-4 86.8 89.1 88.1 88.0
Connecticut 0-3 1-4 82.1 85.0 82.0 83.0
East Carolina 1-2 1-5 80.7 82.4 80.4 81.2
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 2-0 4-1 105.2 104.4 105.3 105.0
Memphis 1-1 4-1 104.5 103.8 104.8 104.3
Navy 3-0 5-0 101.0 101.8 101.0 101.2
Tulane 1-1 3-2 98.6 98.6 99.3 98.8
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.5
Tulsa 0-2 1-5 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-0 6-0 130.0 127.4 129.5 129.0
Florida St. 1-2 1-3 123.3 121.9 122.1 122.5
N. Carolina St. 3-0 5-1 117.2 116.5 117.3 117.0
Louisville 1-2 4-2 114.9 113.9 114.8 114.5
Syracuse 1-1 3-3 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
Boston College 0-3 2-4 99.5 99.7 99.2 99.5
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 2-0 4-0 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.4
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.7 118.1 119.0 118.6
Georgia Tech 2-0 3-1 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
Duke 1-2 4-2 107.8 106.7 106.6 107.0
Pittsburgh 0-2 2-4 104.6 104.9 103.9 104.5
N. Carolina 0-3 1-5 105.1 104.1 103.3 104.2
Virginia 1-0 4-1 103.9 103.4 105.0 104.1
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 1-1 4-1 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
Oklahoma 1-1 4-1 122.1 120.8 122.6 121.8
T C U 2-0 5-0 119.2 116.8 119.5 118.5
Kansas St. 1-1 3-2 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
Texas 2-0 3-2 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
West Virginia 1-1 3-2 109.7 110.3 109.9 110.0
Iowa State 1-1 3-2 106.1 106.7 107.0 106.6
Texas Tech 1-1 4-1 107.4 107.0 106.8 107.1
Baylor 0-2 0-5 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
Kansas 0-2 1-4 84.0 87.1 83.1 84.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.1 110.1 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 3-0 5-1 134.3 131.6 134.0 133.3
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.2 126.1 129.1 127.8
Michigan 1-1 4-1 114.4 114.4 113.8 114.2
Indiana 0-2 3-2 104.7 104.8 105.1 104.9
Michigan St. 2-0 4-1 102.5 104.6 103.1 103.4
Maryland 1-1 3-2 102.2 104.1 102.2 102.8
Rutgers 0-2 1-4 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 2-0 5-0 122.9 119.1 121.4 121.2
Iowa 1-2 4-2 109.8 110.0 109.6 109.8
Northwestern 0-2 2-3 110.1 108.2 110.0 109.4
Minnesota 0-2 3-2 105.5 106.0 105.0 105.5
Purdue 1-1 3-2 102.9 104.3 103.6 103.6
Nebraska 2-1 3-3 101.8 103.0 100.9 101.9
Illinois 0-2 2-3 89.2 90.7 87.9 89.3
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.2 93.9 92.5 92.5
W. Kentucky 1-1 3-2 92.1 91.5 93.0 92.2
Middle Tennessee 1-1 3-3 89.7 90.3 90.3 90.1
Marshall 1-0 4-1 88.8 90.1 90.4 89.8
Old Dominion 0-1 2-3 84.8 87.6 85.0 85.8
Florida Int’l. 2-1 3-2 80.1 80.6 80.7 80.5
Charlotte 0-2 0-6 72.6 74.9 73.0 73.5
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-1 3-1 94.3 96.1 96.1 95.5
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.5 90.1 89.4 89.4
Southern Miss. 1-1 3-2 86.7 87.9 86.9 87.1
N. Texas 2-0 3-2 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
Rice 1-1 1-5 74.9 76.0 75.0 75.3
U T E P 0-2 0-6 72.2 75.3 72.6 73.4
UAB 1-1 3-2 69.7 73.5 71.8 71.7
             
CUSA Averages     83.5 85.3 84.4 84.4
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.4 116.0 118.1 117.1
Army   4-2 98.3 98.4 99.1 98.6
BYU   1-5 93.1 92.5 92.9 92.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
             
Independents Averages     98.5 97.9 98.8 98.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 1-1 4-2 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
Miami (O) 1-1 2-4 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
Buffalo 1-1 3-3 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Akron 2-0 3-3 85.3 88.2 85.7 86.4
Bowling Green 1-1 1-5 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
Kent St. 0-2 1-5 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 2-0 4-2 102.1 100.5 103.5 102.0
Toledo 0-0 4-1 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-3 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
Northern Illinois 1-0 3-2 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
Central Michigan 1-1 3-3 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 2-0 4-2 107.4 105.9 107.7 107.0
Boise St. 1-0 3-2 100.9 99.1 100.6 100.2
New Mexico 1-1 3-2 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
Wyoming 1-0 3-2 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
Air Force 0-2 1-4 92.3 92.8 92.6 92.6
Utah St. 1-1 3-3 92.4 91.4 91.9 91.9
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-0 6-0 104.5 104.7 105.6 104.9
Fresno St. 2-0 3-2 90.3 89.0 90.8 90.1
U N L V 1-1 2-3 86.4 88.7 86.5 87.2
Hawaii 0-3 2-4 85.9 86.9 85.7 86.2
Nevada 1-1 1-5 84.5 86.8 85.9 85.7
San Jose St. 0-3 1-6 76.8 76.9 76.1 76.6
             
MWC Averages     92.6 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-0 6-0 130.5 127.4 131.2 129.7
Washington St. 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.3 120.4 119.8
Stanford 3-1 4-2 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
Oregon 1-2 4-2 111.4 108.8 110.5 110.2
California 0-3 3-3 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
Oregon St. 0-3 1-5 92.5 92.3 91.0 91.9
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 3-1 5-1 119.6 118.9 119.4 119.3
U C L A 1-1 3-2 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
Utah 1-1 4-1 107.2 108.8 107.4 107.8
Colorado 0-3 3-3 109.1 107.4 106.9 107.8
Arizona St. 1-1 2-3 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
Arizona 1-1 3-2 101.9 100.9 100.6 101.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.2 108.9 109.4 109.5
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 3-0 6-0 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
Florida 3-1 3-2 115.2 114.2 114.6 114.7
Kentucky 2-1 5-1 110.9 109.7 110.2 110.3
S. Carolina 2-2 4-2 107.7 106.8 106.7 107.1
Vanderbilt 0-3 3-3 105.1 104.2 104.0 104.4
Tennessee 0-2 3-2 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
Missouri 0-3 1-4 97.1 94.8 96.0 96.0
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 3-0 6-0 139.0 134.4 137.8 137.1
Auburn 3-0 5-1 126.9 124.7 127.0 126.2
L S U 1-1 4-2 112.6 111.0 113.1 112.2
Mississippi St. 1-2 3-2 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
Texas A&M 2-1 4-2 108.1 105.9 107.2 107.1
Arkansas 0-2 2-3 102.9 102.5 102.2 102.6
Ole Miss 0-2 2-3 102.7 101.2 100.8 101.6
             
SEC Averages     111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 2-0 3-2 98.7 96.4 99.0 98.0
Troy 1-0 4-1 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
Arkansas St. 1-0 2-2 89.6 91.1 90.9 90.5
N. Mexico St. 0-2 2-4 88.2 86.3 88.4 87.6
UL-Lafayette 1-1 2-3 84.9 86.2 85.0 85.4
Georgia St. 1-0 2-2 84.7 84.1 84.7 84.5
S. Alabama 0-1 1-4 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
Idaho 1-1 2-3 82.9 85.0 83.5 83.8
UL-Monroe 3-0 3-2 81.8 82.5 80.8 81.7
Georgia Southern 0-1 0-4 77.8 79.3 77.5 78.2
Coastal Carolina 0-2 1-4 71.0 72.2 72.5 71.9
Texas St. 0-2 1-5 70.4 72.9 69.1 70.8
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.1 110.1 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.2 108.9 109.4 109.5
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.5 97.9 98.8 98.4
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.6 92.6 92.8 92.7
9 MAC 88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
10 Sun Belt 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4
11 CUSA 83.5 85.3 84.4 84.4

PiRate Ratings Bowl Projections

Note–At this point of the season, it appears that up to six additional teams could be bowl eligible that do not receive bowl invitations.  The MAC and CUSA could be the victims in this scenario.  Don’t count on any teams getting in with losing records this season.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC Temple Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. UCLA
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida UAB
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Miami (O) Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Utah St.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Georgia St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Boise St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Kansas St. UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Arizona
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke Arkansas
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Virginia Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Northwestern Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Georgia Tech
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Oklahoma
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Purdue Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 North Carolina St. LSU
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Florida St. Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville South Carolina
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [North Texas]
Cotton At-large At-large Penn St. Washington St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Maryland Florida
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Tennessee
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Notre Dame
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Georgia
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Kentucky
Peach At-large At-large Wisconsin Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Alabama Ohio St.
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Clemson Washington
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Princes That Could Be Kings
A popular feature of many sports websites is the coaches hot seat. Coach So and So makes 5 million a year, and in his 5 years at Big-time U, he has a record of 32-30. Obviously, it’s time for So and So to go, go, go.

We here at the PiRate Ratings like to accentuate the positive. We would never feature a hot seat. Instead, we like to locate those up and coming young geniuses that will one day become the new So and So at Big-time U.

We classify three types of princes in this field–head coaches at Group of 5 Schools, head coaches at FCS schools, and coordinators at FBS Power 5 Conference schools.

Here is our first edition of Princes That Could Be Kings. These guys are head coaches at schools in the Group of 5 conferences. To make the list as a “prince,” they must be under the age of 45 (under 44 since if they were hired for next season, they would then be 45), as we are looking for up and comers and not coaches that have won 100 games without making it to the top tier. If a coach has won a lot of games at a Group of 5 school, he is already a king, but he is ruling a smaller nation.

Here is our current list in alphabetical order.

Major Applewhite, Houston, age 39
Applewhite quarterbacked Texas in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. He began his coaching career at his alma mater under Mack Brown, and he has experience as a coordinator under Nick Saban and Tom Herman. He is in his first year as head coach at Houston, but he’s already considered a big-time name in the coaching business, and his stay with the Cougars could lead to bigger and better things sooner rather than later.

Mike Bobo, Colorado St., age 43
Bobo was the starting quarterback at Georgia in the 1990’s and a long-time offensive assistant at his alma mater. He tutored Matthew Stafford, Aaron Murray, and David Greene during his time between the hedges. At Colorado State, Bobo has an 18-14 record in his third year in Fort Collins, and his Rams look like the top team in the Mountain Division of the MWC.

Neal Brown, Troy, age 37
Brown couldn’t be any hotter than he is now. Troy recently won at LSU to raise their record on the season to 4-1. This comes on the heels of a 10-3 season last year, as the Trojans will contend with Appalachian State, Arkansas State, and UL-Monroe for the Sun Belt Conference title this year.

Jason Candle, Toledo, age 37
Candle’s coaching career began in the Division III ranks, and he has limited FBS experience, all at Toledo, where he worked for current Iowa State coach Matt Campbell when Campbell held the Rockets’ head coaching position. In his second year in the Glass Bowl, his won-loss record is 14-5.

Scott Frost, Central Florida, age 37
The national championship-winning quarterback of the 1997 Nebraska Cornhuskers, Frost played under legendary coach Tom Osborne. In his final game at Nebraska, he led the Cornhuskers to a blowout win over a Peyton Manning-led Tennessee team.

Frost was not an NFL-caliber passer, but he was athletic enough to play for pay. He became a valuable special teams player during a brief NFL career that saw him play for Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells.

As an assistant at Oregon, Frost experienced the Chip Kelly. In his second year as a head coach, Frost has UCF in contention for the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid allocated to the best Group of 5 team. The Golden Knights average more than 200 yards rushing and 300 yards passing this season. They average 47.5 points per game, but this team is not one dimensional, yielding less than 16 points per game. They have succeeded while having to cancel games, reschedule games, and in one case, not knowing for sure who they were about to play.

Seth Littrell, North Texas, age 39
Littrell played at Oklahoma as a running back on the 2000 national champion team under Bob Stoops. He was an assistant under Mike Leach at Texas Tech and under Larry Fedora at North Carolina. His offense is a perfect combination of his three former mentors, as UNT is currently averaging 215 yard per game on the ground and 295 yards through the air. He took the Mean Green to a bowl in year one and has UNT at 3-2 and in position to make it back to another bowl this year.

Frank Wilson, UTSA, age 43
Wilson has a somewhat different resume from the others on this list, but he definitely deserves to be part of this group. His assistant coaching history includes working for renegades like Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron, and Les Miles. He led UTSA to their first ever bowl game in his first year in San Antonio, and he has the Roadrunners in contention to win the CUSA West Division this year. His teams are balanced–equally strong running and passing the ball and defending the run and pass, and he is one of the best recruiters in the land.

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

October 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: October 4-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:48 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tampa Bay New England -1.1 -2.5 -0.3 47
N. Y. Giants LA Chargers 3.6 4.1 3.3 40
Cincinnati Buffalo 2.5 2.7 1.9 37
Cleveland N. Y. Jets 1.7 2.4 1.8 40
Pittsburgh Jacksonville 11.6 11.5 11.7 45
Miami Tennessee 1.1 1.0 1.1 44
Indianapolis San Francisco 4.4 5.0 3.9 51
Philadelphia Arizona 6.5 5.1 7.7 46
Detroit Carolina 5.0 6.3 4.9 50
LA Rams Seattle -7.2 -7.5 -6.7 42
Oakland Baltimore 6.8 7.0 6.4 41
Dallas Green Bay 1.8 0.7 2.0 51
Houston Kansas City -1.7 -1.3 -2.5 42
Chicago Minnesota -3.9 -3.8 -4.4 37

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 104.5 105.2 104.1 104.6 24
Buffalo 100.4 100.5 101.0 100.6 21
Miami 96.3 96.3 95.7 96.1 19
N. Y. Jets 93.2 92.8 93.3 93.1 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 21
Cincinnati 99.8 100.2 99.8 100.0 16
Baltimore 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 18
Cleveland 91.9 92.3 92.2 92.1 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 101.1 101.4 100.7 101.1 21
Tennessee 98.2 98.3 97.7 98.1 25
Jacksonville 97.7 97.9 97.5 97.7 24
Indianapolis 93.7 94.0 93.1 93.6 26
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.7 105.8 106.2 105.9 21
Denver 103.8 103.1 104.2 103.7 19
Oakland 103.5 104.0 103.1 103.5 23
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.1 99.0 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.4 101.8 102.3 102.2 25
Philadelphia 101.9 100.8 102.7 101.8 23
Washington 100.3 100.0 100.7 100.3 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.9 99.2 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.6 104.1 103.3 103.7 26
Detroit 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 24
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.8 99.8 17
Chicago 93.3 93.8 92.9 93.3 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.5 104.3 31
New Orleans 101.6 100.6 101.9 101.4 30
Carolina 100.9 100.2 101.2 100.8 26
Tampa Bay 100.4 99.6 100.8 100.3 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 20
Arizona 98.9 99.2 98.5 98.9 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.7 92.5 92.7 92.6 25

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs

AFC

  1. Kansas City
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. New England
  4. Houston
  5. Denver
  6. Buffalo

NFC

  1. Atlanta
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Green Bay
  4. Seattle
  5. Carolina
  6. Los Angeles

Wildcard Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Denver

Green Bay over Los Angeles

Carolina over Seattle

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Houston

Pittsburgh over New England

Carolina over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Green Bay

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Philadelphia

October 2, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 4-7, 2017

PiRate Rating Spreads For This Week

October 4-7        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -6.5 -6.9 -8.7
North Carolina St. Louisville 2.5 3.0 2.3
Connecticut Memphis -13.7 -9.8 -13.8
BYU Boise St. -0.5 0.7 0.0
East Carolina Temple -7.2 -6.0 -7.2
Oklahoma Iowa St. 26.2 23.2 26.3
Clemson Wake Forest 27.0 25.1 26.8
Toledo Eastern Michigan 6.7 6.8 8.0
Kansas Texas Tech -14.6 -10.7 -14.5
Iowa Illinois 22.9 21.6 23.8
Vanderbilt Georgia -14.5 -16.4 -15.8
Auburn Ole Miss 27.0 26.3 29.0
Northwestern Penn St. -14.2 -14.0 -14.9
Virginia Duke -2.3 -1.1 0.5
Syracuse Pittsburgh 5.9 4.0 5.9
Ohio U Central Michigan 4.8 5.5 5.7
Miami (O) Bowling Green 15.8 16.8 16.7
Texas St. Louisiana-Monroe -7.5 -5.5 -7.4
Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l. 10.6 11.2 10.3
Appalachian St. New Mexico St. 13.3 12.9 13.4
Purdue Minnesota -3.1 -1.7 -2.2
North Carolina Notre Dame -5.9 -5.9 -8.6
Northern Illinois Kent St. 13.6 11.9 13.5
Navy Air Force 12.4 12.6 12.4
Florida LSU 7.3 7.5 6.3
Buffalo Western Michigan -15.1 -11.0 -14.5
TCU West Virginia 13.0 9.7 13.4
Akron Ball St. 10.7 11.8 9.3
Florida St. Miami (Fla.) 4.6 5.3 4.2
Oregon Washington St. -1.9 -2.6 -2.3
Tulane Tulsa -1.5 -1.0 -0.9
Ohio St. Maryland 31.8 27.1 31.0
USC Oregon St. 29.9 29.5 31.1
UAB Louisiana Tech -22.5 -19.2 -21.4
South Carolina Arkansas 1.7 1.6 1.0
Utah St. Colorado St. -11.6 -11.3 -12.4
Idaho Louisiana-Lafayette 3.0 3.8 4.1
Old Dominion Florida Atlantic 4.3 3.6 3.4
Charlotte Marshall -13.5 -12.6 -14.7
Coastal Carolina Georgia St. -11.6 -9.7 -10.1
Rice Army -14.8 -13.8 -15.3
UTSA Southern Miss. 13.4 13.6 15.6
Texas Kansas St. 2.6 3.6 2.9
Houston SMU 8.0 7.3 7.3
Texas A&M Alabama -32.6 -29.8 -32.7
Boston College Virginia Tech -17.0 -16.0 -18.0
Kentucky Missouri 17.8 19.0 18.6
San Jose St. Fresno St. -10.2 -8.8 -11.4
Michigan Michigan St. 18.4 15.4 17.0
UTEP Western Kentucky -19.4 -15.3 -20.3
Nebraska Wisconsin -17.4 -12.1 -16.4
Cincinnati Central Florida -20.6 -19.9 -20.3
Colorado Arizona 14.7 13.4 13.9
Utah Stanford -7.5 -4.3 -6.5
Nevada Hawaii -0.8 0.9 0.8
Washington California 31.7 31.0 34.1
UNLV San Diego St. -11 -8.4 -11.3
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Indiana Charleston Sou. 29

 

This Week’s PiRate Retrodictive Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings are like rankings, rating teams based on what they have done so far this season without trying to predict the outcome of future games

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.4
2 Clemson 130.8
3 Washington 129.6
4 Oklahoma 129.2
5 Penn St. 127.7
6 Georgia 127.5
7 Michigan 123.8
8 Ohio St. 123.6
9 Wisconsin 123.5
10 Miami (Fla) 123.0
11 TCU 122.9
12 Washington St. 122.2
13 USC 120.7
14 Louisville 120.4
15 San Diego St. 117.9
16 Florida 117.6
17 Virginia Tech 116.5
18 Oklahoma St. 116.1
19 Central Florida 115.8
20 South Florida 115.6
21 Auburn 115.5
22 Notre Dame 115.5
23 Utah 115.2
24 Stanford 115.1
25 North Carolina St. 115.0
26 Texas Tech 114.9
27 Navy 114.9
28 Wake Forest 114.8
29 Mississippi St. 114.7
30 Kansas St. 114.7
31 Minnesota 114.2
32 Oregon 114.0
33 Duke 113.9
34 Iowa 113.5
35 Kentucky 113.4
36 Georgia Tech 113.2
37 Maryland 112.9
38 Florida St. 112.5
39 Houston 112.0
40 Texas A&M 111.8
41 West Virginia 111.4
42 Michigan St. 111.1
43 LSU 110.6
44 Colorado 110.2
45 Tennessee 109.7
46 Toledo 109.3
47 Vanderbilt 108.5
48 South Carolina 108.2
49 Texas 107.7
50 California 107.6
51 Memphis 107.2
52 UCLA 106.9
53 Western Michigan 106.6
54 Nebraska 106.0
55 Boise St. 105.6
56 Northwestern 105.0
57 Indiana 104.7
58 Purdue 104.4
59 Arizona St. 103.9
60 Colorado St. 103.7
61 Virginia 103.4
62 Troy 102.9
63 UTSA 102.0
64 SMU 101.8
65 Arkansas 101.7
66 Appalachian St. 101.5
67 Ole Miss 100.9
68 Northern Illinois 100.7
69 Marshall 100.0
70 Pittsburgh 99.6
71 Ohio 98.9
72 Louisiana Tech 98.4
73 Tulane 98.2
74 Boston College 98.0
75 Arizona 97.8
76 Iowa St. 97.0
77 Utah St. 96.6
78 Air Force 96.2
79 Army 95.9
80 Wyoming 95.3
81 North Carolina 94.5
82 Western Kentucky 94.1
83 Arkansas St. 93.7
84 Southern Miss. 93.3
85 Temple 92.9
86 New Mexico 92.8
87 Fresno St. 92.2
88 Syracuse 91.5
89 North Texas 91.1
90 Tulsa 90.6
91 Florida Int’l. 90.4
92 Eastern Michigan 89.9
93 Buffalo 89.4
94 Illinois 89.3
95 Cincinnati 88.7
96 Miami (O) 88.1
97 Florida Atlantic 88.0
98 Idaho 87.2
99 BYU 86.9
100 Middle Tennessee 86.5
101 Old Dominion 86.1
102 Baylor 85.8
103 New Mexico St. 85.0
104 UNLV 84.9
105 Akron 84.7
106 Missouri 84.7
107 Oregon St. 84.1
108 UL-Monroe 83.6
109 Rutgers 82.9
110 Hawaii 82.5
111 Central Michigan 82.2
112 UL-Lafayette 82.0
113 Ball St. 81.8
114 East Carolina 81.3
115 South Alabama 80.8
116 Connecticut 79.6
117 UAB 79.1
118 Georgia St. 78.3
119 Coastal Carolina 77.9
120 Georgia Southern 77.8
121 Kansas 77.8
122 Kent St. 75.1
123 Rice 75.0
124 Nevada 74.4
125 Massachusetts 73.8
126 Bowling Green 73.3
127 San Jose St. 73.2
128 UTEP 73.1
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 72.2

PiRate Predictive Ratings

Predictive Ratings only look forward to the next week’s games played.  They do not rate teams based on what they have done so far, and in many cases, a higher-rated team may have lost to a lower-rated team (like Ohio State being rated higher than Oklahoma).

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.1 136.3 140.1 139.2
2 Ohio St. 132.6 129.9 132.1 131.5
3 Clemson 130.7 127.8 130.3 129.6
4 Washington 130.0 126.9 130.7 129.2
5 Penn St. 127.7 125.7 128.5 127.3
6 Auburn 126.8 124.6 126.9 126.1
7 Oklahoma 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
8 Georgia 123.6 124.3 123.9 123.9
9 Florida St. 124.1 122.6 123.1 123.3
10 Oklahoma St. 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
11 Miami 121.5 119.3 121.0 120.6
12 Wisconsin 122.4 118.4 120.7 120.5
13 U S C 119.5 118.8 119.3 119.2
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.2 119.4 118.8
15 T C U 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
16 Washington St. 118.3 116.1 117.8 117.4
17 Stanford 117.5 116.1 116.7 116.8
18 Michigan 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
19 Louisville 116.3 115.2 116.4 116.0
20 N. Carolina St. 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
21 Notre Dame 115.7 114.5 116.5 115.5
22 Florida 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.5
23 Georgia Tech 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
24 Texas 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
25 Kansas St. 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
26 Oregon 113.4 110.5 112.6 112.2
27 South Florida 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
28 Central Florida 110.7 112.3 111.8 111.6
29 L S U 111.8 110.3 112.2 111.4
30 Kentucky 111.4 110.2 110.9 110.8
31 Colorado 111.5 109.5 109.4 110.1
32 Northwestern 110.6 108.6 110.6 109.9
33 West Virginia 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
34 Iowa 109.6 109.8 109.3 109.6
35 U C L A 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
36 Utah 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
37 Mississippi St. 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
38 Duke 108.4 107.0 107.0 107.5
39 Minnesota 107.3 107.5 106.9 107.2
40 Syracuse 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
41 Colo. State 107.2 105.8 107.5 106.8
42 Wake Forest 106.8 105.7 106.5 106.3
43 Vanderbilt 106.6 105.4 105.6 105.9
44 Arkansas 106.2 105.6 105.7 105.9
45 N. Carolina 106.8 105.6 104.9 105.8
46 Indiana 104.6 104.7 105.0 104.8
47 Pittsburgh 104.9 105.2 104.2 104.8
48 Maryland 103.9 105.8 104.1 104.6
49 Texas A&M 105.5 103.5 104.4 104.5
50 S. Carolina 104.9 104.2 103.7 104.3
51 Houston 104.5 103.8 104.4 104.2
52 Texas Tech 104.5 103.9 103.7 104.0
53 Tennessee 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
54 Virginia 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
55 Iowa State 102.6 103.8 103.3 103.3
56 Western Michigan 102.7 101.0 104.2 102.6
57 Nebraska 102.0 103.4 101.3 102.2
58 San Diego St. 101.9 102.0 102.8 102.2
59 Purdue 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
60 Baylor 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
61 Arizona St. 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
62 Ole Miss 102.8 101.3 100.9 101.7
63 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.5 101.6
64 Memphis 101.7 100.8 101.8 101.4
65 Michigan St. 100.0 102.5 100.7 101.1
66 Toledo 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
67 California 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
68 Boston College 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3
69 SMU 99.0 99.1 99.6 99.2
70 Arizona 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
71 Tulsa 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.7
72 Boise St. 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
73 Appalachian St. 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
74 U T S A 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
75 Troy 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Army 95.5 95.6 96.2 95.8
77 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
78 Eastern Michigan 95.5 95.1 95.5 95.4
79 BYU 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3
80 New Mexico 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
81 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
82 Wyoming 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
83 Miami (O) 92.7 94.7 94.2 93.9
84 W. Kentucky 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
85 Rutgers 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
86 Temple 92.7 93.1 92.6 92.8
87 Air Force 91.9 92.5 92.1 92.2
88 Louisiana Tech 91.4 92.5 92.4 92.1
89 Utah St. 92.6 91.5 92.1 92.1
90 Oregon St. 92.6 92.4 91.1 92.0
91 Ohio U 91.1 92.5 92.1 91.9
92 Northern Illinois 90.2 90.0 90.7 90.3
93 Illinois 89.7 91.2 88.5 89.8
94 Marshall 88.7 90.0 90.3 89.7
95 U N L V 88.7 91.1 89.0 89.6
96 Fresno St. 89.8 88.5 90.3 89.6
97 Old Dominion 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
98 Middle Tennessee 89.0 89.8 89.4 89.4
99 Arkansas St. 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
100 Central Michigan 88.7 89.5 88.9 89.0
101 Cincinnati 87.6 89.9 89.1 88.9
102 Kansas 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
103 Florida Atlantic 86.9 89.9 88.1 88.3
104 Hawaii 87.6 88.4 87.4 87.8
105 N. Mexico St. 88.3 86.4 88.5 87.7
106 Buffalo 85.1 87.5 87.2 86.6
107 Connecticut 84.9 88.0 85.0 86.0
108 Southern Miss. 85.3 86.7 85.2 85.7
109 Massachusetts 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
110 Akron 83.9 87.0 84.0 85.0
111 Georgia St. 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
112 N. Texas 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
113 Idaho 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
114 UL-Lafayette 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
115 S. Alabama 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
116 Nevada 82.8 85.3 84.2 84.1
117 East Carolina 82.5 84.1 82.4 83.0
118 Florida Int’l. 80.8 81.1 81.6 81.2
119 UL-Monroe 81.1 81.7 79.9 80.9
120 Kent St. 79.6 81.1 80.2 80.3
121 Bowling Green 79.5 80.4 79.9 79.9
122 Georgia Southern 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
123 Rice 77.7 78.8 77.9 78.1
124 San Jose St. 77.1 77.2 76.4 76.9
125 Ball St. 75.7 77.7 77.2 76.9
126 Charlotte 72.7 75.0 73.1 73.6
127 U T E P 71.7 75.0 71.9 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 70.8 72.1 72.3 71.8
129 Texas St. 71.1 73.7 70.0 71.6
130 UAB 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 2-0 5-0 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
Central Florida 1-0 3-0 110.7 112.3 111.8 111.6
Temple 0-2 2-3 92.7 93.1 92.6 92.8
Cincinnati 0-1 2-3 87.6 89.9 89.1 88.9
Connecticut 0-2 1-3 84.9 88.0 85.0 86.0
East Carolina 1-1 1-4 82.5 84.1 82.4 83.0
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 1-0 3-1 104.5 103.8 104.4 104.2
Navy 3-0 4-0 101.4 102.1 101.5 101.6
Memphis 0-1 3-1 101.7 100.8 101.8 101.4
SMU 1-0 4-1 99.0 99.1 99.6 99.2
Tulsa 0-1 1-4 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.7
Tulane 0-1 2-2 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 3-0 5-0 130.7 127.8 130.3 129.6
Florida St. 1-1 1-2 124.1 122.6 123.1 123.3
Louisville 1-1 4-1 116.3 115.2 116.4 116.0
N. Carolina St. 2-0 4-1 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
Syracuse 0-1 2-3 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
Wake Forest 1-1 4-1 106.8 105.7 106.5 106.3
Boston College 0-2 2-3 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 1-0 3-0 121.5 119.3 121.0 120.6
Virginia Tech 0-1 4-1 118.9 118.2 119.4 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-0 3-1 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
Duke 1-1 4-1 108.4 107.0 107.0 107.5
N. Carolina 0-3 1-4 106.8 105.6 104.9 105.8
Pittsburgh 0-1 2-3 104.9 105.2 104.2 104.8
Virginia 0-0 3-1 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
             
ACC Averages     112.9 111.7 112.4 112.3
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
Oklahoma St. 1-1 4-1 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
T C U 1-0 4-0 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
Texas 1-0 2-2 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
Kansas St. 1-0 3-1 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
West Virginia 1-0 3-1 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
Texas Tech 0-1 3-1 104.5 103.9 103.7 104.0
Iowa State 0-1 2-2 102.6 103.8 103.3 103.3
Baylor 0-2 0-5 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
Kansas 0-1 1-3 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.2 110.2 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 2-0 4-1 132.6 129.9 132.1 131.5
Penn St. 2-0 5-0 127.7 125.7 128.5 127.3
Michigan 1-0 4-0 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
Indiana 0-2 2-2 104.6 104.7 105.0 104.8
Maryland 1-0 3-1 103.9 105.8 104.1 104.6
Michigan St. 1-0 3-1 100.0 102.5 100.7 101.1
Rutgers 0-2 1-4 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 1-0 4-0 122.4 118.4 120.7 120.5
Northwestern 0-1 2-2 110.6 108.6 110.6 109.9
Iowa 0-2 3-2 109.6 109.8 109.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-1 3-1 107.3 107.5 106.9 107.2
Nebraska 2-0 3-2 102.0 103.4 101.3 102.2
Purdue 0-1 2-2 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
Illinois 0-1 2-2 89.7 91.2 88.5 89.8
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 2-2 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
Marshall 0-0 3-1 88.7 90.0 90.3 89.7
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
Middle Tennessee 0-1 2-3 89.0 89.8 89.4 89.4
Florida Atlantic 1-0 2-3 86.9 89.9 88.1 88.3
Florida Int’l. 2-0 3-1 80.8 81.1 81.6 81.2
Charlotte 0-1 0-5 72.7 75.0 73.1 73.6
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 3-0 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
Louisiana Tech 1-0 3-2 91.4 92.5 92.4 92.1
Southern Miss. 0-1 2-2 85.3 86.7 85.2 85.7
N. Texas 2-0 3-2 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
Rice 1-1 1-4 77.7 78.8 77.9 78.1
U T E P 0-1 0-5 71.7 75.0 71.9 72.9
UAB 0-1 2-2 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.8 85.5 84.6 84.6
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   4-1 115.7 114.5 116.5 115.5
Army   3-2 95.5 95.6 96.2 95.8
BYU   1-4 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3
Massachusetts   0-6 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
             
Indep. Averages     98.0 97.4 98.4 97.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 1-0 2-3 92.7 94.7 94.2 93.9
Ohio U 1-0 4-1 91.1 92.5 92.1 91.9
Buffalo 1-0 3-2 85.1 87.5 87.2 86.6
Akron 1-0 2-3 83.9 87.0 84.0 85.0
Kent St. 0-1 1-4 79.6 81.1 80.2 80.3
Bowling Green 0-1 0-5 79.5 80.4 79.9 79.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 1-0 3-2 102.7 101.0 104.2 102.6
Toledo 0-0 3-1 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
Eastern Michigan 0-1 2-2 95.5 95.1 95.5 95.4
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-2 90.2 90.0 90.7 90.3
Central Michigan 0-1 2-3 88.7 89.5 88.9 89.0
Ball St. 0-1 2-3 75.7 77.7 77.2 76.9
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 1-0 3-2 107.2 105.8 107.5 106.8
Boise St. 1-0 2-2 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
New Mexico 1-1 3-2 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
Wyoming 1-0 3-2 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
Air Force 0-2 1-3 91.9 92.5 92.1 92.2
Utah St. 1-0 3-2 92.6 91.5 92.1 92.1
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 5-0 101.9 102.0 102.8 102.2
U N L V 1-0 2-2 88.7 91.1 89.0 89.6
Fresno St. 1-0 2-2 89.8 88.5 90.3 89.6
Hawaii 0-2 2-3 87.6 88.4 87.4 87.8
Nevada 0-1 0-5 82.8 85.3 84.2 84.1
San Jose St. 0-2 1-5 77.1 77.2 76.4 76.9
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.4 92.5 92.4
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 2-0 5-0 130.0 126.9 130.7 129.2
Washington St. 2-0 5-0 118.3 116.1 117.8 117.4
Stanford 2-1 3-2 117.5 116.1 116.7 116.8
Oregon 1-1 4-1 113.4 110.5 112.6 112.2
California 0-2 3-2 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
Oregon St. 0-2 1-4 92.6 92.4 91.1 92.0
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 2-1 4-1 119.5 118.8 119.3 119.2
Colorado 0-2 3-2 111.5 109.5 109.4 110.1
U C L A 1-1 3-2 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
Utah 1-0 4-0 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
Arizona St. 1-1 2-3 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
Arizona 0-1 2-2 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.9 109.4 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 5-0 123.6 124.3 123.9 123.9
Florida 3-0 3-1 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.5
Kentucky 1-1 4-1 111.4 110.2 110.9 110.8
Vanderbilt 0-2 3-2 106.6 105.4 105.6 105.9
S. Carolina 1-2 3-2 104.9 104.2 103.7 104.3
Tennessee 0-2 3-2 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
Missouri 0-2 1-3 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 2-0 5-0 141.1 136.3 140.1 139.2
Auburn 2-0 4-1 126.8 124.6 126.9 126.1
L S U 0-1 3-2 111.8 110.3 112.2 111.4
Mississippi St. 1-2 3-2 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
Arkansas 0-1 2-2 106.2 105.6 105.7 105.9
Texas A&M 2-0 4-1 105.5 103.5 104.4 104.5
Ole Miss 0-1 2-2 102.8 101.3 100.9 101.7
             
SEC Averages     111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-2 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
Troy 1-0 4-1 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
N. Mexico St. 0-1 2-3 88.3 86.4 88.5 87.7
Georgia St. 0-0 1-2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
Idaho 1-0 2-2 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
UL-Lafayette 0-1 1-3 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
S. Alabama 0-1 1-4 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
UL-Monroe 2-0 2-2 81.1 81.7 79.9 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-3 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
Coastal Carolina 0-1 1-3 70.8 72.1 72.3 71.8
Texas St. 0-1 1-4 71.1 73.7 70.0 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.1 84.9 84.2 84.4

Ratings By Conference

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.9 111.7 112.4 112.3
2 SEC 111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.2 110.2 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.9 109.4 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.0 97.4 98.4 97.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.4 92.4 92.5 92.4
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.8 85.5 84.6 84.6
11 Sun Belt 84.1 84.9 84.2 84.4

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N. Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC [W. Kentucky] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Boise St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U New Mexico St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Buffalo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Fresno St.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Western Mich.
Potato MAC MWC Miami (O) Wyoming
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 Memphis Tennessee
Arm. Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army Nebraska
$ General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Hawaii
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Kansas St. UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Toledo] Michigan St.
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Colorado
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 [Old Dominion] [UNLV]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Virginia Maryland
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Arkansas
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy [Middle Tenn.]
Camp.Wrld ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern UCLA
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Duke Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Mississippi St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [Iowa]
Cotton At-large At-large Penn St. Georgia
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Minnesota South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Washington St. Wisconsin
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Louisville Ohio St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Texas A&M
Peach At-large At-large Notre Dame Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Miami (Fla.) Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Clemson Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Washington
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Bowl Contention/Elimination Season
Welcome to real Autumn. As the calendar page flips to October, college football season is in full bloom. Many schools will reach the halfway point of their schedule this weekend. Another sign that Autumn is here in earnest–college football picks up another day, as the Wednesday night scheduling begins this week.

If it’s October, then it is time to start looking at bowl eligibility. Obviously, there are dynasties like Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and others that are going to a bowl with 100% certainty, and there are teams like Charlotte, Kansas, and Oregon State that are definitely not going to a bowl.

There are about 80 teams in position to become bowl eligible, and maybe 55 to 60 of these schools will earn it, while the other 20 to 25 will fall short. We call this time of year, Bowl Contention/Elimination Season (BCES). Each week, there will be games where the winner will stay in contention for a bowl, while the loser will either be severely damaged or outright eliminated from bowl contention. Let’s take a look at some of the early BCES games in October.

Illinois (2-2) at Iowa (3-2). The loser of this game cannot find a path to 6-6. Illinois must win this game and then defeat Rutgers, and then two from Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, and Northwestern. If the Illini cannot beat Iowa, they cannot win four others. Iowa’s offense is struggling with new a new quarterback, receivers, and running backs. They will have to squeak by three more opponents and have a tough closing schedule.

Duke (4-1) at Virginia (3-1). This is not a bowl elimination game. The winner of this one is in very good shape to become bowl eligible, in fact close to 100% likely with just one loss.

Pittsburgh (2-3) at Syracuse (2-3). This is a true bowl eliminator. The winner moves to 3-3 and stays in contention for a bowl at probably 6-6, while the loser is not going to win four more games.

Florida International (3-1) at Middle Tennessee (2-3). This was not how it was supposed to be this year in CUSA. Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and Middle Tennessee are struggling, while FIU is in contention for the East Division title. For Middle, they have serious injury issues on offense, namely their quarterback and top two receivers. FIU has improved each week under Butch Davis, and a win this week probably gives the Panthers anywhere from 85-90% chance of getting to six wins.

Minnesota (3-1) at Purdue (2-2). This is a trap game for Minnesota. After losing a tough home game to Maryland, the Gophers travel to West Lafayette to take on a much-improved, confident Boilermaker team that will be coming off a bye week and will be playing in the memory of former great PU coach Joe Tiller, who recently passed away. Jeff Brohm will have Purdue fired up to win this game, and at 3-2, Purdue will be more than Spoilermakers; they will be serious bowl contenders.

Tulsa (1-4) at Tulane (2-2). The winner still has a chance to make a bowl this year. The loser has no chance. Green Wave second year coach Willie Fritz will start getting noticed by the big schools if he guides Tulane to a bowl in his second year in New Orleans. Fritz worked wonders at Georgia Southern, and before that, he turned programs around at Sam Houston State and Central Missouri. Fritz’s offense is unique in college football. It may look a lot like Army, Navy, and Georgia Tech’s triple option offense, but it is nothing like those three. It is more similar to the old Nebraska offense with zone blocking rules and regular (double) options with power running and quick passing. His style of play might work in the Big 12 or even the SEC. He might get a chance to interview at an SEC school in December if TU can make a run to a bowl.

Arkansas (2-2) at South Carolina (3-2). If Arkansas loses this game, the Razorbacks are in serious jeopardy of not getting to six wins this year, and it could be one of three or four SEC schools looking to replace a coach. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is okay to stay if he goes 5-7, but Brett Bielema may have a tough time keeping the job in Fayetteville if he doesn’t get the Razorbacks to eight wins.

UL-Lafayette (1-3) at Idaho (2-2). It is hard to beat Idaho in the Kibbie Dome in Moscow. There will be very little chance that ULL will recover to 6-6 if they lose to the Vandals this week. On the other side of the field, Idaho must get to seven wins to have a legitimate chance at a bowl. The Sun Belt will not go to bat for the Vandals unless they force the issue, because Idaho is dropping to FCS at the end of this year and will no longer be a SBC member. Only if the SBC has no other options, will Idaho get a fair shake.

Florida Atlantic (2-3) at Old Dominion (2-2). The winner of this one moves into decent contention for a bowl. It is our opinion that CUSA will end up with more bowl eligible teams than bowl contracts, but there are always other leagues that cannot fill their allotment of bowl bids. Due to geography, this league has an advantage in placing at-large teams in bowls.

Arizona (2-2) at Colorado (3-2). Rich Rodriguez is in serious trouble in Tucson, and anything short of a bowl invitation should be the end of his tenure in the desert. The Wildcats would need three more wins if they beat the Buffaloes at Folsom Field this week, but finding three more wins is still a tough task. Colorado would need just two more wins if they hold off the Wildcats in Boulder, and Mike MacIntyre has job security in the Rockies.

The Playoff Race, or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love A Threepeat
At this point in the season, it might be insane to think that any team other than Alabama or Clemson has a chance to make it to the College Football National Championship Game. Sure, there are a lot of really good teams, some that might run the table and enter the playoffs at 13-0. But, at this point of the season, the two powers look to be in a league of their own, headed to a rubber match in Atlanta, which would be the perfect neutral site.
How rare is it for the same two teams to play for the Championship of a sport three years in a row? In one word–Very! College football has only had a playoff for a couple years, and before that a BCS Championship, so the chances have not been there for it to happen. It could be argued that from 1944 to 1946, Army and Notre Dame played in essence the National Championship Game when they faced off at Yankee Stadium, but those games were in-season, and there was no guarantee that the winner would be the champion.
In the NFL, no two Super Bowl teams have every played each other three years in a row. Prior to the Super Bowl era, The Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns played for the NFL title in 1952, 1953, and 1954.

The New York Giants and New York Yankees squared off in three consecutive World Series in 1921, 1922, and 1923. In the NBA, the Warriors and Cavaliers have played each other for the title the last three years, and in the NHL, even though for many years there were not even 10 total teams (just 6 for many of those years), it has still been rare. Detroit and Montreal met for the Stanley Cup in 1954, 1955, and 1956.

 

September 28, 2017

Is It Time For The Professional University Football League?

Many times in the last quarter century, multiple sports professionals have bantered about having one super conference in college sports. Media members, former athletic administrators and others have discussed what might happen if the largest financially successful athletic programs drop all pretenses and secede from the NCAA, forming their own professional college league.

The PiRates have always believed in amateur athletics, but at this point, it is hard to keep the amateur in high school athletics, where you have football and basketball factory high schools all over the country.

Maybe the time has come for the big boys to leave the supposedly amateur NCAA and form a new entity. The time may be the most ideal since the thought first became public.

With the NFL potentially crippled for the near term and maybe never again to experience the heights it enjoyed since it surpassed baseball circa 1969, when the Major Leagues divided into divisions, meaning the two best teams did not always play in the World Series, and when Joe Namath made that Super Bowl III guarantee.

Add to this the current FBI probe that has already brought down Rick Pitino and many assistant coaches and may eventually lead to some top schools landing in serious trouble. Recruiting the 5-star athletes leads to all sorts of dirty underhanded dealing.

The fix would be for the 32 biggest football factories to leave the NCAA and form their own professional league of universities.

What we call the PUFL (Professional University Football League) could take these 32 great teams with the gragantuan football stadiums and divide into eight divisions of four teams each. The league could play a 16-game schedule with a couple of pre-season games, and then 12 teams would make the playoffs, leading up to the College Super Bowl, or whatever they might call it.

Instead of recruiting and signing players who would enroll in college as students, the players would be reclassified as employees and would not go to school as students. There would be a draft similar to the early days of the American Football League. Certain players living near a campus could be reserved and signed by the school in their area, but only a small amount. The remainder of the top talent could be drafted and signed to a 3-year contract. The draft would run for 16 rounds, and each drafted player would be guaranteed a 3-year contract.  After the third year, players could move on to the NFL or sign a new 1-year contract and remain employed with the college.  An option could be that the player could become a free agent after three years and sign with another college.

After 16 rounds, the schools could then sign free agent high school talents in order to fill out a 60-man roster. With 60 players under contract for 3-year contracts, each school would then have a salary cap of $6 million. That would mean the average player would make $100,000 per year. There would be no need to have boosters paying recruits to receive under the table payments, because the top 512 players would belong to the team that drafted them (16 draft rounds of 32 teams).

The $6 million in salaries would more than be made up by added revenue from a television contract that would dwarf today’s current NCAA contract. All the major networks might want to participate. With 16 games a week, all 16 games could be televised nationally. The ratings would go through the roof, and the schools could make much more money than they currently do.

The Big Ten and SEC schools currently receive around $30-40 million from their networks.  According to the Green Bay Packers’ financial records, each NFL team received $244 million in TV revenue in 2016. We believe the PUFL teams could top that and maybe receive $300-500 million a year! The college game has the potential to do to the NFL what the NFL did to all other sports. This might be the time to strike, while the NFL has a serious wound that worsens daily, and while some current basketball personnel may be soon wearing a uniform with stripes for 2 to 5 years.

This is our offering for the 32 teams

Eastern Division
Maryland
Penn St.
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

Mideast Division
Michigan
Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Ohio St.

Midwest Division
Iowa
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Wisconsin

Lower South Division
Clemson
Florida
Florida St.
Miami

Upper South Division
Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
Tennessee

Southwest Division
Arkansas
LSU
Texas
Texas A&M

Upper West Division
California
Oregon
Utah
Washington

Lower West Division
Arizona St.
San Diego St.
UCLA
USC

Imagine it is Thanksgiving Day. In the early morning, Ohio State and Michigan can play. A little later, Alabama and Auburn would square off. After this game kicks off, Nebraska and Oklahoma would begin, followed by Texas and Texas A&M. Then in the late afternoon, Washington and Oregon would play, followed by UCLA and USC in the late game. Because teams in the same division would play twice a year, you could easily stage the second game on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Or, you could add other potential bonanza games like USC-Notre Dame, Texas-Arkansas, Penn State-West Virginia, LSU-Alabama, Florida-Florida State, or Clemson-Georgia.

If fans will pay $50+ to see Alabama and Fresno State or Ohio State and UNLV in non-conference games, how much might an Alabama-Oklahoma or a Ohio State-USC game command?

Think about TV ratings. Rather than have to stick with a 59-0 massacre, CBS would not have to worry about a terrible mismatch like Alabama pasting Vanderbilt. With an annual draft of the top players, Alabama or anybody else would not be 59 points better than another opponent. In fact, Alabama fans would have to deal with seasons where 12-4 records might be the best they can expect. Some current power might be hung with a string of losing seasons rather than suffer through a 7-win rebuilding season with three or four wins over the little sisters of the poor.

What would happen to all the other schools? Do you really think these big behemoths would care all that much? The other schools would have to make do with what was left over. Maybe, they could return to educating first with athletics becoming more of a real amateur competition. Would a leftover school really try to go after the 700th best athlete by throwing money at him? Would the shoe companies or some Nationwide Ned try to broker players to schools, when all the 4 and 5-star athletes would be off limits to them?

It could lead to new Ivy League type conferences. Duke, Northwestern, Stanford, Army, Navy, Air Force, Vanderbilt, Tulane, and Rice could form a league and bring back some of the former football greats of the past that once played major college football, like Fordham. These schools could team up with the current Ivy League and Patriot League and form their own alliance of teams that put academics first ahead of athletics.

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 28-October 2, 2017

After four weeks of the football season, our readers might just want to take a knee; then again, they might want to place that knee firmly in some PiRate groin!  Ouch!  1,000 apologies if you took our ill-adivsed advice!

Another losing week, and we are now in the hole to the tune of -25% return on our investment for the season.  We won only one of last week’s four selections, returning $245 on $400 invested.  The -25% return for the season comes from $899 returned on $1,200 invested, quite a hole to try to emerge from before the season runs out of dates.

Our one solace, and we hope this is yours as well, is that these are imaginary dollars.  We can continue to select a liberal amount of games and be a bit wild with our selections, because we are only out the time it takes to pick these games.

This week, you will notice that all of our selections are college football games.  There are no NFL picks.  Make of this what you want, and you will be partially correct.  For one, we just didn’t feel like looking at the NFL Money Lines.  None of us will attend any games this week, and as far as we know, none of us will be watching on TV or listening on the radio.  Another reason why we didn’t select any NFL games is that the league is extremely erratic this year.  The supposed sure-thing 0-16 Jets won big over a playoff contender, and the Texans with a rookie QB almost beat New England, so let’s just walk away from the NFL for now.  The politics can only make the outcomes more unpredictable.

That leaves us with college football, and there are a lot of good games this week.  By good, we mean games in which the favorite is in the 5 to 10 point range, which presents us excellent Money Line potentials.  We actually like one underdog winning outright on the road, and we are going to put that one out as a single entry.

Here are our 5 parlay selections for this week.  Remember this: The members of the PiRate Ratings are not foolish enough to wager real currency on these selections.  We are nervous enough with our value stock selections, which are real, so we don’t need the added stress.  You to should avoid the stress of worrying about losing $500 real dollars on these selections, so only wager imaginary money if you must.

#1 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
Georgia Tech North Carolina
Georgia Tennessee
Nebraska Illinois
#2 @ +150  
Must Win Must Lose
Iowa Michigan St.
#3 @ +146  
Must Win Must Lose
Central Florida Memphis
Cincinnati Marshall
#4 @ +128  
Must Win Must Lose
Kentucky Eastern Mich.
Western Mich. Ball St.
La. Tech South Alabama
Boston College Central Mich.
#5 @ +135  
Must Win Must Lose
UNLV San Jose St.
Florida Intl. Charlotte
San Diego St. N. Illinois
Florida Vanderbilt

 

 

 

 

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