PiRate Ratings NFL Football–Week 4: Sept. 29-Oct. 3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	Miami	6.0	4.6	5.1
New Orleans	Minnesota	0.5	-0.2	0.1
Atlanta	Cleveland	-8.5	-6.7	-7.1
Baltimore	Buffalo	-4.1	-4.4	-4.3
Dallas	Washington	11.0	10.5	11.5
Detroit	Seattle	5.5	6.7	5.3
Houston	LA Chargers	-7.2	-6.0	-6.0
Indianapolis	Tennessee	5.4	4.6	5.6
N.Y. Giants	Chicago	4.4	4.6	4.5
Philadelphia	Jacksonville	12.2	10.3	11.4
Pittsburgh	N.Y. Jets	7.7	7.0	8.4
Carolina	Arizona	0.7	0.4	0.5
Green Bay	New England	12.2	10.7	11.3
Las Vegas	Denver	5.8	4.5	5.4
Tampa Bay	Kansas City	5.6	5.3	5.4
San Francisco	LA Rams	2.0	2.1	2.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Cincinnati	Miami	43.5
New Orleans	Minnesota	42.5
Atlanta	Cleveland	48
Baltimore	Buffalo	46.5
Dallas	Washington	45.5
Detroit	Seattle	45
Houston	LA Chargers	47
Indianapolis	Tennessee	44.5
N.Y. Giants	Chicago	37
Philadelphia	Jacksonville	45
Pittsburgh	N.Y. Jets	46.5
Carolina	Arizona	45
Green Bay	New England	42
Las Vegas	Denver	42.5
Tampa Bay	Kansas City	50.5
San Francisco	LA Rams	43

New Orleans vs. Minnesota Game played in London

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	111.9	112.0	112.1	112.0	23.5	2-1
Miami	102.2	102.8	102.7	102.6	20.5	3-0
New England	98.7	98.6	99.2	98.8	21	1-2
N.Y. Jets	93.6	94.1	93.0	93.6	24.5	1-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cincinnati	105.1	104.4	104.8	104.8	23	1-2
Baltimore	104.8	104.5	104.8	104.7	23	2-1
Cleveland	102.5	101.5	101.9	102.0	22.5	2-1
Pittsburgh	98.3	98.0	98.4	98.2	22	1-2
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	99.9	99.5	99.9	99.8	22	1-1-1
Tennessee	97.6	97.9	97.4	97.6	22.5	1-2
Jacksonville	97.0	98.3	97.5	97.6	22	2-1
Houston	88.1	90.1	89.0	89.0	20.5	0-2-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.6	107.1	107.6	107.4	27	2-1
Las Vegas	103.5	103.3	102.5	103.1	25	0-3
Denver	100.6	101.8	100.1	100.8	17.5	2-1
LA Chargers	98.3	99.1	97.9	98.5	26.5	1-2
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.2	105.6	105.9	105.9	23	3-0
Dallas	104.3	103.2	104.2	103.9	23.5	2-1
Washington	95.8	95.1	95.2	95.4	22	1-2
N.Y. Giants	93.3	94.5	93.9	93.9	19	2-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	107.9	106.3	107.5	107.2	21	2-1
Minnesota	99.8	99.1	99.6	99.5	22.5	2-1
Detroit	95.2	95.9	95.8	95.6	25.5	1-2
Chicago	91.3	92.4	91.9	91.9	18	2-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tampa Bay	110.2	109.4	110.0	109.9	23.5	2-1
New Orleans	100.3	98.9	99.7	99.6	20	1-2
Carolina	95.5	95.9	95.6	95.7	21	1-2
Atlanta	91.5	92.4	92.3	92.0	25.5	1-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.6	104.4	104.3	104.4	23.5	2-1
San Francisco	103.6	103.5	103.8	103.6	19.5	1-2
Arizona	97.8	98.5	98.1	98.1	24	1-2
Seattle	92.7	92.1	93.5	92.8	19.5	1-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1	Buffalo
2	Kansas City
3	Cleveland
4	Jacksonville
5	Miami
6	Baltimore
7	Denver
NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Green Bay
3	LA Rams
4	Tampa Bay
5	Dallas
6	Minnesota
7	San Francisco

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Denver
Baltimore over Cleveland
Miami over Jacksonville
Green Bay over San Francisco
Dallas over Minnesota
Tampa Bay over Dallas
Divisional Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Miami over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Dallas
Tampa Bay over Green Bay
Conference Championship
Buffalo over Miami
Philadelphia over Tampa Bay
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Phialdelphia over Buffalo

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 29-October 1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
BYU	Utah St.	23.2	21.6	22.5
Houston	Tulane	3.1	2.8	4.0
Middle Tennessee	UTSA	-7.3	-4.7	-5.9
Boise St.	San Diego St.	7.3	6.6	7.5
UCLA	Washington	2.8	1.7	2.9
UNLV	New Mexico	10.7	8.5	11.9
Wisconsin	Illinois	11.3	10.1	12.1
Penn St.	Northwestern	25.1	23.9	26.9
Boston College	Louisville	-10.6	-8.3	-10.9
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	7.7	9.5	9.5
Florida St.	Wake Forest	10.4	10.4	10.5
Army	Georgia St.	6.8	7.8	5.1
Clemson	North Carolina St.	4.5	5.3	5.0
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	25.8	25.1	26.4
Maryland	Michigan St.	1.3	2.5	3.0
Duke	Virginia	-8.9	-6.5	-9.5
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	11.6	11.3	13.6
Old Dominion	Liberty	-3.1	-4.6	-5.1
South Florida	East Carolina	-4.6	-5.5	-6.4
Central Florida	SMU	4.9	6.3	5.4
Ball St.	Northern Illinois	-10.9	-10.5	-11.2
Minnesota	Purdue	10.7	11.3	13.2
James Madison	Texas St.	16.2	17.1	20.4
Air Force	Navy	16.2	17.3	19.0
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	1.0	1.5	0.8
Kansas	Iowa St.	-2.7	-4.2	-5.4
Louisiana	South Alabama	1.9	1.4	1.8
Memphis	Temple	20.2	18.3	22.0
Tulsa	Cincinnati	-12.1	-12.1	-13.4
Eastern Michigan	Massachusetts	16.6	16.8	19.3
Utah	Oregon St.	10.3	9.9	11.4
New Mexico St.	Florida Int’l.	15.6	14.9	16.9
Washington St.	California	6.4	6.9	6.1
Arizona	Colorado	7.8	9.5	8.8
USC	Arizona St.	13.9	14.9	14.5
Oregon	Stanford	14.5	16.4	15.9
Ole Miss	Kentucky	7.2	4.8	4.6
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	7.5	7.6	6.3
Ohio St.	Rutgers	33.0	32.4	37.0
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	6.3	3.8	3.6
TCU	Oklahoma	-3.8	-4.1	-4.6
Iowa	Michigan	-7.4	-7.3	-9.0
Texas	West Virginia	8.8	7.9	9.1
Auburn	LSU	-6.0	-6.8	-7.1
Arkansas	Alabama	-12.9	-13.7	-13.9
Missouri	Georgia	-28.2	-26.3	-30.6
Toledo	Central Michigan	3.4	2.6	2.2
Buffalo	Miami (O)	-4.3	-4.5	-4.8
Connecticut	Fresno St.	-20.6	-19.0	-24.0
Akron	Bowling Green	-9.0	-7.2	-8.8
Kent St.	Ohio	9.2	9.2	8.3
Arkansas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	3.1	4.4	4.4
North Texas	Florida Atlantic	-3.1	-5.3	-2.2
Charlotte	UTEP	-4.4	-3.3	-4.9
Nebraska	Indiana	3.5	4.0	4.8
Western Kentucky	Troy	11.6	11.1	12.3
Rice	UAB	-11.9	-12.4	-13.9
Wyoming	San Jose St.	-0.9	0.7	-0.8

FBS vs. FCS Spreads

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Appalachian St.	The Citadel	32.4
Florida	Eastern Washington	27.4
Marshall	Gardner-Webb	27.7
Western Michigan	New Hampshire	20.4
South Carolina	South Carolina St.	32.5
Syracuse	Wagner	51.0

Teams With A Bye This Week

Colorado St.

Hawaii

Louisiana Tech

Miami (Fla.)

Nevada

Notre Dame

Southern Miss.

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	132.8
2	Alabama	131.3
3	Ohio St.	130.9
4	Michigan	123.9
5	Minnesota	121.3
6	Clemson	118.5
7	Oklahoma	118.3
8	Tennessee	117.7
9	Penn St.	117.6
10	Utah	117.0
11	Oklahoma St.	116.8
12	NC State	116.6
13	L S U	115.3
14	Ole Miss	115.1
15	Wisconsin	115.0
16	Baylor	114.9
17	Arkansas	114.8
18	Pittsburgh	114.0
19	Florida St.	113.9
20	Mississippi St.	113.8
21	Iowa	113.0
22	Oregon	113.0
23	Purdue	112.6
24	Cincinnati	112.6
25	Kentucky	112.5
26	U S C	112.5
27	Notre Dame	112.5
28	Texas A&M	112.2
29	Texas	112.2
30	Kansas St.	112.0
31	Michigan St.	111.9
32	T C U	111.6
33	Maryland	111.1
34	Miami (Fla.)	110.3
35	BYU	110.2
36	Louisville	109.9
37	Washington	109.6
38	Oregon St.	109.5
39	Iowa St.	109.4
40	U C L A	109.1
41	Syracuse	107.9
42	Texas Tech	107.8
43	South Carolina	107.4
44	West Virginia	106.6
45	UCF	106.5
46	Wake Forest	106.5
47	Florida	106.4
48	North Carolina	106.2
49	Illinois	105.9
50	Auburn	105.6
51	SMU	104.0
52	Washington St.	103.6
53	Air Force	103.4
54	Kansas	102.3
55	W. Kentucky	102.1
56	Fresno St.	101.9
57	Houston	101.5
58	Missouri	101.4
59	Virginia	101.4
60	Arizona St.	101.1
61	Tulane	100.7
62	Nebraska	100.6
63	Stanford	100.4
64	California	100.1
65	East Carolina	100.0
66	Rutgers	99.8
67	Indiana	99.5
68	Boise St.	99.3
69	U A B	99.1
70	Army	98.6
71	Appalachian St.	98.6
72	Memphis	98.0
73	Boston College	97.4
74	Virginia Tech	97.1
75	Tulsa	97.0
76	Coastal Carolina	96.9
77	U T S A	96.8
78	Liberty	96.8
79	James Madison	96.6
80	N. Illinois	96.4
81	Northwestern	95.3
82	San Diego St.	95.2
83	Arizona	95.2
84	Marshall	94.8
85	Georgia St.	94.5
86	Toledo	94.5
87	Central Mich.	94.3
88	Miami (Ohio)	93.8
89	Vanderbilt	93.7
90	Troy	93.0
91	South Alabama	92.9
92	Louisiana	92.7
93	U N L V	92.1
94	USF	92.0
95	Kent St.	91.5
96	San Jose St.	91.3
97	Georgia Tech	91.2
98	Duke	90.6
99	Old Dominion	90.5
100	Ga. Southern	90.5
101	Western Mich.	90.3
102	Florida Atlantic	90.2
103	Southern Miss.	90.1
104	Colorado	89.5
105	Utah St.	89.3
106	Navy	88.9
107	Middle Tennessee	88.3
108	Wyoming	87.9
109	Buffalo	86.7
110	U T E P	86.6
111	Bowling Green	86.4
112	Eastern Mich.	85.6
113	Nevada	85.4
114	Arkansas St.	85.1
115	Ohio	85.1
116	New Mexico	84.2
117	North Texas	84.2
118	Rice	83.9
119	UL-Monroe	83.6
120	Ball St.	83.6
121	Colorado St.	81.6
122	Texas St.	81.2
123	Louisiana Tech	81.0
124	Temple	80.9
125	Charlotte	79.8
126	Connecticut	77.7
127	Akron	76.0
128	New Mexico St.	75.2
129	Hawaii	71.2
130	Massachusetts	70.6
131	Florida Int’l.	61.9

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	112.2	111.7	113.8	112.6
UCF	106.1	106.8	106.7	106.5
SMU	104.3	103.4	104.3	104.0
Houston	101.7	100.8	102.0	101.5
Tulane	101.1	100.5	100.5	100.7
East Carolina	99.9	99.5	100.6	100.0
Memphis	98.0	98.3	97.7	98.0
Tulsa	97.2	96.6	97.3	97.0
USF	92.8	91.5	91.7	92.0
Navy	89.7	88.8	88.2	88.9
Temple	80.8	83.0	78.7	80.9
AAC	98.5	98.2	98.3	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	118.5	118.3	118.8	118.5
NC State	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6
Florida St.	114.1	113.8	113.9	113.9
Louisville	110.6	109.5	109.6	109.9
Syracuse	108.7	107.6	107.3	107.9
Wake Forest	106.7	106.4	106.4	106.5
Boston College	97.4	98.7	96.2	97.4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	114.9	113.8	113.4	114.0
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	109.6	110.4	110.3
North Carolina	106.3	106.4	106.1	106.2
Virginia	102.0	102.0	100.2	101.4
Virginia Tech	97.7	98.0	95.5	97.1
Georgia Tech	92.1	91.7	90.0	91.2
Duke	90.6	93.0	88.2	90.6
ACC	106.2	106.0	105.2	105.8
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	118.7	117.7	118.6	118.3
Oklahoma St.	117.4	115.9	117.2	116.8
Baylor	115.4	114.4	115.0	114.9
Texas	112.9	111.8	111.8	112.2
Kansas St.	112.7	111.4	111.9	112.0
T C U	112.4	111.1	111.5	111.6
Iowa St.	109.3	109.3	109.5	109.4
Texas Tech	108.1	106.8	108.6	107.8
West Virginia	107.1	106.9	105.7	106.6
Kansas	103.7	102.1	101.1	102.3
Big 12	111.7	110.7	111.1	111.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	131.2	129.7	132.0	130.9
Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.2	123.9
Penn St.	117.7	117.7	117.6	117.6
Michigan St.	112.9	111.7	111.1	111.9
Maryland	111.2	111.2	111.1	111.1
Rutgers	101.1	100.3	98.0	99.8
Indiana	100.7	99.9	98.0	99.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	121.3	120.8	121.7	121.3
Wisconsin	115.5	114.9	114.6	115.0
Iowa	114.0	112.9	112.2	113.0
Purdue	113.6	112.5	111.5	112.6
Illinois	106.3	106.9	104.6	105.9
Nebraska	101.2	100.9	99.8	100.6
Northwestern	95.6	96.7	93.7	95.3
Big Ten	111.9	111.4	110.7	111.3
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	101.3	101.4	103.7	102.1
U A B	98.5	98.7	100.1	99.1
U T S A	97.3	95.9	97.2	96.8
Florida Atlantic	89.8	91.1	89.8	90.2
Middle Tennessee	87.5	88.7	88.8	88.3
U T E P	86.7	86.3	86.6	86.6
North Texas	84.2	83.3	85.1	84.2
Rice	84.1	83.8	83.7	83.9
Louisiana Tech	80.9	82.2	79.7	81.0
Charlotte	79.7	80.5	79.3	79.8
Florida Int’l.	61.6	64.2	59.9	61.9
CUSA	86.5	86.9	86.7	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.9	111.3	113.2	112.5
BYU	110.8	109.2	110.6	110.2
Army	98.4	98.8	98.7	98.6
Liberty	95.6	97.2	97.5	96.8
Connecticut	78.2	79.1	75.8	77.7
New Mexico St.	74.7	76.6	74.3	75.2
Massachusetts	71.3	71.8	68.6	70.6
Independents	91.7	92.0	91.2	91.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	92.1	94.7	94.5	93.8
Kent St.	90.6	92.8	91.1	91.5
Buffalo	85.3	87.7	87.2	86.7
Bowling Green	87.0	85.9	86.2	86.4
Ohio	83.9	86.0	85.3	85.1
Akron	76.0	76.7	75.4	76.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	96.2	96.6	96.5	96.4
Toledo	93.7	94.7	95.2	94.5
Central Mich.	92.8	94.6	95.5	94.3
Western Mich.	89.8	90.6	90.5	90.3
Eastern Mich.	85.4	86.0	85.4	85.6
Ball St.	83.3	84.2	83.3	83.6
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Air Force	102.9	103.1	104.3	103.4
Boise St.	99.5	98.5	99.9	99.3
Utah St.	89.1	89.1	89.6	89.3
Wyoming	86.7	88.9	88.2	87.9
New Mexico	84.5	84.8	83.4	84.2
Colorado St.	81.4	82.2	81.4	81.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	101.8	101.1	102.8	101.9
San Diego St.	95.2	94.9	95.4	95.2
U N L V	92.6	90.7	92.9	92.1
San Jose St.	90.6	91.2	92.0	91.3
Nevada	84.9	86.6	84.8	85.4
Hawaii	70.7	71.9	71.1	71.2
MWC	90.0	90.2	90.5	90.2
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.8	115.9	118.5	117.0
Oregon	113.4	112.8	112.8	113.0
U S C	111.9	112.5	113.1	112.5
Washington	108.9	109.8	110.2	109.6
Oregon St.	109.4	108.9	110.1	109.5
U C L A	108.7	108.6	110.1	109.1
Washington St.	103.0	103.7	104.0	103.6
Arizona St.	101.0	100.6	101.6	101.1
Stanford	101.9	99.4	99.9	100.4
California	99.6	99.8	101.0	100.1
Arizona	95.3	95.1	95.1	95.2
Colorado	90.5	88.6	89.3	89.5
Pac-12	105.0	104.6	105.5	105.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	132.8	131.4	134.2	132.8
Tennessee	117.5	117.6	117.9	117.7
Kentucky	111.9	112.6	113.1	112.5
South Carolina	107.7	106.9	107.5	107.4
Florida	105.8	107.3	106.2	106.4
Missouri	101.6	102.0	100.6	101.4
Vanderbilt	93.9	94.7	92.4	93.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.1	130.3	132.4	131.3
L S U	115.7	115.0	115.1	115.3
Ole Miss	116.2	114.4	114.7	115.1
Arkansas	115.2	113.6	115.5	114.8
Mississippi St.	114.7	113.2	113.5	113.8
Texas A&M	111.4	112.3	112.9	112.2
Auburn	106.7	105.2	105.0	105.6
SEC	113.0	112.6	112.9	112.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.2	98.8	99.6	98.6
Coastal Carolina	95.6	97.1	97.9	96.9
James Madison	94.3	96.3	99.2	96.6
Marshall	94.4	95.3	94.7	94.8
Georgia St.	94.1	93.4	96.1	94.5
Old Dominion	90.5	90.6	90.4	90.5
Ga. Southern	90.4	90.1	90.9	90.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	92.2	92.8	93.9	93.0
South Alabama	92.1	92.8	93.9	92.9
Louisiana	92.0	92.2	93.7	92.7
Southern Miss.	89.7	90.3	90.3	90.1
Arkansas St.	84.3	85.8	85.2	85.1
UL-Monroe	83.7	83.9	83.3	83.6
Texas St.	80.6	81.7	81.3	81.2
Sun Belt	90.8	91.5	92.2	91.5

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.9
2	Big Ten	111.3
3	Big 12	111.2
4	Atlantic Coast	105.8
5	Pac-12	105.0
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	91.6
8	Sun Belt	91.5
9	Mountain West	90.2
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.7

Coming In October

As October leads the College Football worlds into mostly conference play, it’s time to start looking ahead at the Playoffs and Bowl Projections. The PiRates do it a bit differently from others. We don’t make our projections based on what each team has done to the present time, like most others. We first forecast the rest of the season and then make our projections based on what we believe the standings will be. Additionally, we plan to do our best to explain the inexact rules for where teams can go. No longer can you look and see who will finish 3rd in a conference and then know where the 3rd place team is automatically slotted to go bowling. It’s more like the 1960’s, where the bowls can choose which teams they want with the help of the conferences that have the tie-ins. In the case of many bowls, multiple conferences can be in the mix, and ESPN can steer the teams into the bowls they want them to appear so as to attempt to get their maximum TV ratings.

This Week’s Playoff Projections

1.) Alabama

2.) Ohio State

3.) Georgia

4.) USC

Top Group of 5 (For The Cotton Bowl Bid)

1.) Cincinnati

2.) Central Florida

3.) Coastal Carolina

4.) Air Force

5.) Middle Tennessee

PiRate Ratings–NFL addendum

Because somehow we left off the MNF Game–Sorry Folks!

Somehow, we left the last game of Week 3 on our weekly spreads. Since there’s still more than 48 hours until kickoff, and it’s a big rivalry game with an all of a sudden first place New York Giants team, here are the spreads for that game.

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	-8.0	-5.5	-7.0
Home	Visitor	Total
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	42.5

PiRate Picks: September 22-24, 2022

After losing most of our imaginary profit made in the first two weeks last week, we happened to be gifted with a week where the numbers seemed to be in our favor. We issued seven selections, including a Money Line Parlay that had eye-popping +204.42 odds. The Wyoming-Air Force rivlary game immediately drew our attention, as the 14 1/2 points were not just a gift, but an outright mistake. It won to start the weekend out on a great note.

We played two short favorites at home, something we rarely like to play. One of them, Maryland over SMU, won. The other was winning until a true freshman quarterback acted like Peyton Manning in the second half of his game, and our own local Vanderbilt Commodores won as a road ‘dog.

We played three totals, and all three won, but two of those were by the skin of our teeth. Oklahoma blew Nebraska off their home field. Thankfully, they ate the last 6 minutes off the clock when any score would have done us in. Notre Dame and Cal covered the 40 1/2 point total by a half point. Once again, we felt the AFA-Wyoming game was a gift with its high total, because the Cowboys historically have slowed down the option and kept this game close and low scoring.

Now to the Money Line Parlay at better than 2-1 odds. Penn State easily clobbered Auburn, as we thought would happen. Texas A&M was in a must-win situation to save Jimbo Fisher’s smoldering seat from becoming inflamed. North Carolina State proved their ranking is valid by topping Texas Tech with little trouble, and voila, we had an outstanding week cashing in six imaginary tickets in seven wagers. The imaginary $700 investment returned $1,294.42 for a fake profit of 85%. For the season to date, our beginning imaginary balance of $1,000 is now worth $1,906.19 a profit gain of 90.6% in four weeks.

That is now in the past. What have we done for you lately? We are about to do a lot by telling you that as wonderful as the numbers looked to us last week, they look that terrible this week. So many spreads are one point away from being plays for us. That one point is where we live. 20-something games were wiped out just because the number needed to be 7 1/2 instead of 6 1/2, 3 1/2 instead of 2 1/2, and 10 1/2 instead of 9 1/2. Buying points or playing teasers are two things we don’t like to do, unless we can play a 3-game, 10-point teaser where we can move spreads from 4 1/2 to 14 1/2, 7 1/2 to 17 1/2, 11 1/2 to 21 1/2 and similar.

Additionally, the totals seem to be a lot more accurate this week. Maybe on Monday, there were some playable totals, but by Wednesday night (when our picks are made), they had moved to unplayable numbers. We found just one game where we live the total this week.

That brings us to the Money Line parlay possibilities. Our philosophy with Money Line parlays is to take no more than three games on a parlay and to get at least +130 odds. Very rarely, we will add a fourth game that we believe has a better than 98% chance that the favorite will win. We could have added fourth games to the two parlays we chose, but that would have only raised the odds from the +130s to the +160s, and we don’t have the 98% confidence rating on either game. So, we are going with just three selections this week, hoping that next week will bring us more selection opportunities.

Selection #1: Southern California and Oregon State Under 70 1/2

It is our belief that this number had to be a little inflated to make it closer to a 50-50 wagering proposition. Still, the public is tending to the Over here. Both teams’ defenses and special teams have contributed to their scoring so far this year. This game figures to have better special teams defense, and both teams’ coaches might be preparing a little more than normal conservative game plans. We think the score could be in the neighborhood of 35-27, 35-31, or 34-28. Even a 38-28 game wins for us. So does a 35-34. It has to get to 38-35, 42-31, and 45-28 before this one loses.

Selection #2: Money Line Parlay at +135.77

Syracuse over Virginia

Georgia Southern over Ball St.

Old Dominion over Arkansas St.

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay at +134.52

Kansas over Duke

Clemson over Wake Forest

Temple over U Mass.

There is nothing special in our parlay picks this week. We simply believe that the chances of winning either one top the odds. We believe each one has a better than 50% chance of winning, and the chance of winning at least one of the two are 90%. Since going 1-1 in these two parlays is a guaranteed profit, we chose to pick these two with very similar odds, even if they are near our minimum odds we like to play.

Remember This: The PiRates never wager real money on these selections. We hope you don’t either. If you do wager real money, please do not use our selections as the main reference for your wagering.

We are not naive. We know there are more than a dozen of you that play our selections. Just because we have begun the 2022 football season with incredible results, there is no guarantee that this will continue. We have enjoyed 17 winning seasons in 22 years with this feature, but a couple of those 5 losing seasons were big losers. Many of our winning seasons returned 8-15% profit, some of those coming in years when the overall stock market returns were better than 15%. You don’t have to deal with the vig when you invest in corporations.

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 3, September 22-26, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings NFL Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	6.1	5.4	5.2
Carolina	New Orleans	-4.0	-2.0	-3.7
Chicago	Houston	6.1	5.2	6.3
Indianapolis	Kansas City	-5.8	-6.1	-6.3
Miami	Buffalo	-9.3	-9.0	-9.4
Minnesota	Detroit	7.5	6.1	7.1
New England	Baltimore	-0.6	-0.2	0.5
N.Y. Jets	Cincinnati	-7.9	-6.3	-7.8
Tennessee	Las Vegas	-4.2	-3.7	-3.6
Washington	Philadelphia	-6.3	-5.9	-6.2
LA Chargers	Jacksonville	11.3	10.8	10.5
Arizona	LA Rams	-3.4	-2.5	-2.6
Seattle	Atlanta	5.8	4.4	6.2
Tampa Bay	Green Bay	6.7	7.9	7.4
Denver	San Francisco	-0.1	1.3	-0.9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	44.5
Carolina	New Orleans	41
Chicago	Houston	38.5
Indianapolis	Kansas City	50
Miami	Buffalo	44
Minnesota	Detroit	48
New England	Baltimore	42
N.Y. Jets	Cincinnati	48.5
Tennessee	Las Vegas	47.5
Washington	Philadelphia	47
LA Chargers	Jacksonville	48.5
Arizona	LA Rams	49.5
Seattle	Atlanta	44
Tampa Bay	Green Bay	46.5
Denver	San Francisco	40

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	113.2	113.4	113.6	113.4	23.5	2-0
Miami	100.9	101.4	101.2	101.2	20.5	2-0
New England	99.8	99.8	100.6	100.1	20	1-1
N.Y. Jets	93.9	94.6	93.5	94.0	25	1-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Cincinnati	104.8	103.9	104.3	104.3	23.5	0-2
Baltimore	103.4	103.0	103.1	103.2	22	1-1
Cleveland	102.2	101.2	101.5	101.6	22.5	1-1
Pittsburgh	98.6	98.3	98.8	98.6	22	1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	99.2	98.6	98.9	98.9	22.5	0-1-1
Tennessee	97.2	97.5	96.9	97.2	22.5	0-2
Jacksonville	93.5	94.8	94.0	94.1	22	1-1
Houston	88.3	90.3	89.0	89.2	20.5	0-1-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	108.0	107.7	108.3	108.0	27.5	2-0
Las Vegas	103.9	103.7	103.0	103.5	25	0-2
LA Chargers	101.8	102.6	101.4	102.0	26.5	1-1
Denver	100.5	101.8	100.0	100.8	19	1-1
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	105.4	104.6	104.9	105.0	24	2-0
Dallas	104.3	103.1	104.2	103.9	23.5	1-1
Washington	96.6	96.1	96.2	96.3	23	1-1
N.Y. Giants	93.3	94.6	93.9	93.9	19	2-0
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	107.2	105.4	106.5	106.4	22	1-1
Minnesota	100.0	99.3	100.0	99.7	22.5	1-1
Detroit	95.0	95.7	95.4	95.4	25.5	1-1
Chicago	91.4	92.5	92.2	92.1	18	1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tampa Bay	110.9	110.3	111.0	110.7	24.5	2-0
New Orleans	101.3	99.8	100.9	100.7	20	1-1
Carolina	94.8	95.3	94.7	94.9	21	0-2
Atlanta	90.7	91.6	91.3	91.2	25	0-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	104.4	104.2	104.0	104.2	24.5	1-1
San Francisco	103.7	103.5	103.9	103.7	21	1-1
Arizona	98.0	98.7	98.4	98.4	25	1-1
Seattle	93.5	92.9	94.5	93.7	19	1-1

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Buffalo
2	Kansas City
3	Baltimore
4	Indianapolis
5	Miami
6	LA Chargers
7	Jacksonville
NFC Seeding
1	Tampa Bay
2	Philadelphia
3	San Francisco
4	Green Bay
5	LA Rams
6	Dallas
7	New Orleans

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Jacksonville
LA Chargers over Baltimore
Miami over Indianapolis
Philadelphia over New Orleans
San Francisco over Dallas
LA Rams over Green Bay
Divisional Round
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Kansas City over Miami
Tampa Bay over LA Rams
Philadelphia over San Francisco
Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Tampa Bay

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 22-24, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	West Virginia	-2.5	-1.5	-3.1
Georgia St.	Coastal Carolina	6.4	4.1	6.5
Syracuse	Virginia	10.4	9.4	11.3
Air Force	Nevada	19.1	17.1	20.3
UTEP	Boise St.	-18.4	-17.8	-19.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	-2.6	-1.3	-1.5
Kentucky	Northern Illinois	20.1	20.6	21.6
South Carolina	Charlotte	30.0	28.1	29.9
Temple	Massachusetts	9.2	11.2	9.4
Georgia	Kent St.	50.2	46.4	51.5
North Carolina	Notre Dame	-1.3	0.8	-1.4
Miami (Fla.)	Middle Tennessee	34.3	31.9	32.6
Michigan	Maryland	18.0	16.6	18.3
North Carolina St.	Connecticut	42.6	40.7	45.5
Penn St.	Central Michigan	29.7	27.6	26.7
Central Florida	Georgia Tech	17.1	18.1	19.9
Louisville	South Florida	16.9	16.9	16.6
Michigan St.	Minnesota	2.7	2.2	0.5
Wake Forest	Clemson	-11.2	-11.5	-12.2
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	15.2	13.8	16.7
Liberty	Akron	24.0	25.3	27.3
Florida St.	Boston College	17.1	14.9	17.7
Tennessee	Florida	15.6	14.4	16.1
Cincinnati	Indiana	13.2	13.3	17.7
East Carolina	Navy	16.2	16.9	19.2
Georgia Southern	Ball St.	9.9	8.4	10.4
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	9.5	7.6	7.7
Appalachian St.	James Madison	8.6	8.4	6.1
Rutgers	Iowa	-9.2	-8.5	-10.3
Kansas	Duke	17.5	13.2	17.8
Northwestern	Miami (O)	8.6	7.1	3.9
Old Dominion	Arkansas St.	9.8	8.4	9.0
Colorado	UCLA	-12.0	-13.9	-14.7
BYU	Wyoming	28.7	24.5	27.2
New Mexico St.	Hawaii	5.1	5.7	3.8
Arizona St.	Utah	-11.5	-10.7	-12.5
Oregon St.	USC	1.6	0.5	1.5
San Diego St.	Toledo	4.5	3.2	3.2
Washington St.	Oregon	-7.7	-6.3	-6.1
California	Arizona	4.8	5.0	6.2
Washington	Stanford	8.0	11.7	11.3
Troy	Marshall	-1.5	-2.2	-0.4
South Alabama	Louisiana Tech	11.0	10.0	14.0
Mississippi St.	Bowling Green	30.3	29.7	29.4
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	13.4	14.1	14.6
Ole Miss	Tulsa	23.9	22.7	22.5
Alabama	Vanderbilt	37.1	35.0	39.9
SMU	TCU	-5.7	-4.9	-3.9
Texas Tech	Texas	-2.7	-3.3	-1.3
UL-Monroe	Louisiana	-9.6	-9.9	-12.7
Texas A&M (n)	Arkansas	-4.6	-1.7	-3.6
Houston	Rice	20.5	20.1	21.8
Memphis	North Texas	16.7	18.1	15.7
Tulane	Southern Miss.	17.4	15.9	16.2
Auburn	Missouri	8.5	6.7	8.3
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	35.0	32.1	39.3
Utah St.	UNLV	1.0	3.4	1.7
Purdue	Florida Atlantic	31.5	28.9	29.4
LSU	New Mexico	33.8	32.5	33.9
San Jose St.	Western Michigan	-1.7	-2.4	-1.5

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Illinois	Chattanooga	23.8
Ohio	Fordham	16.7
Texas St.	Houston Baptist	26.4
Pittsburgh	Rhode Island	32.0
Colorado St.	Sacramento St.	-3.0
UTSA	Texas Southern	37.2

Teams With Byes

Army

Fresno St.

Nebraska

Oklahoma St.

UAB

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	135.3
2	Alabama	129.5
3	Ohio St.	128.8
4	Michigan	124.6
5	Oklahoma	120.7
6	Clemson	119.7
7	Tennessee	118.2
8	Penn St.	118.2
9	NC State	117.1
10	Wisconsin	116.6
11	Oklahoma St.	116.5
12	Minnesota	116.4
13	Utah	116.3
14	Ole Miss	115.8
15	Purdue	115.2
16	Michigan St.	115.2
17	Arkansas	115.1
18	L S U	114.9
19	Miami (Fla.)	114.8
20	Baylor	114.6
21	Pittsburgh	114.3
22	Mississippi St.	113.5
23	Kentucky	113.4
24	Oregon	113.0
25	Florida St.	112.5
26	Texas	112.5
27	Iowa	112.4
28	Cincinnati	112.2
29	Texas A&M	111.8
30	U S C	111.6
31	Notre Dame	111.3
32	BYU	111.0
33	T C U	110.7
34	Maryland	110.0
35	Oregon St.	109.8
36	Iowa St.	109.7
37	Kansas St.	109.6
38	Washington	108.7
39	Syracuse	108.3
40	Louisville	108.1
41	U C L A	107.7
42	North Carolina	107.7
43	Texas Tech	107.5
44	South Carolina	107.0
45	UCF	106.6
46	Auburn	106.2
47	Florida	105.9
48	Wake Forest	105.6
49	Illinois	105.5
50	West Virginia	104.5
51	SMU	104.4
52	Boise St.	104.2
53	Washington St.	103.3
54	Kansas	102.8
55	Tulane	102.7
56	Houston	102.4
57	Air Force	102.3
58	Arizona St.	101.8
59	Fresno St.	101.7
60	East Carolina	101.7
61	Stanford	101.4
62	Missouri	101.4
63	Virginia	100.9
64	Nebraska	100.3
65	Rutgers	100.1
66	Indiana	99.9
67	Appalachian St.	99.7
68	Virginia Tech	99.6
69	U A B	98.9
70	Boston College	98.9
71	California	98.7
72	W. Kentucky	98.5
73	Army	98.4
74	Memphis	98.3
75	Liberty	98.2
76	U T S A	97.1
77	Georgia St.	96.8
78	Northwestern	96.6
79	Arizona	96.3
80	Marshall	95.8
81	Tulsa	95.8
82	N. Illinois	95.6
83	San Diego St.	95.2
84	Vanderbilt	95.2
85	James Madison	95.0
86	Louisiana	94.8
87	Toledo	94.5
88	USF	94.3
89	Coastal Carolina	93.6
90	Western Mich.	93.2
91	Central Mich.	93.2
92	Miami (Ohio)	92.5
93	Troy	92.0
94	South Alabama	91.4
95	Georgia Tech	91.2
96	Colorado	91.2
97	U N L V	91.2
98	Old Dominion	90.8
99	Ga. Southern	90.3
100	Utah St.	90.2
101	Duke	89.6
102	Kent St.	89.0
103	Eastern Mich.	88.8
104	San Jose St.	88.3
105	Florida Atlantic	88.3
106	Southern Miss.	88.1
107	Navy	87.2
108	Wyoming	87.2
109	Bowling Green	86.7
110	Nevada	86.5
111	Ohio	85.4
112	Middle Tennessee	84.8
113	Arkansas St.	84.8
114	New Mexico	84.6
115	Colorado St.	84.1
116	North Texas	83.9
117	Ball St.	83.7
118	Buffalo	83.5
119	U T E P	83.2
120	Rice	82.6
121	Louisiana Tech	82.2
122	UL-Monroe	82.0
123	Texas St.	80.9
124	Charlotte	80.2
125	Temple	79.6
126	Connecticut	77.2
127	Akron	75.1
128	New Mexico St.	73.9
129	Hawaii	72.5
130	Massachusetts	72.2
131	Florida Int’l.	65.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.8	111.2	113.5	112.2
UCF	106.1	106.8	106.8	106.6
SMU	104.5	103.8	104.9	104.4
Tulane	103.1	102.4	102.5	102.7
Houston	102.5	101.7	103.1	102.4
East Carolina	101.4	101.1	102.5	101.7
Memphis	98.2	98.6	98.0	98.3
Tulsa	96.0	95.4	96.0	95.8
USF	95.0	93.8	94.1	94.3
Navy	88.2	87.2	86.3	87.2
Temple	79.6	81.9	77.3	79.6
AAC	98.8	98.5	98.6	98.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.6	119.5	120.1	119.7
NC State	117.4	116.4	117.5	117.1
Florida St.	112.8	112.2	112.4	112.5
Syracuse	109.1	108.0	107.9	108.3
Louisville	108.9	107.7	107.7	108.1
Wake Forest	105.9	105.5	105.4	105.6
Boston College	98.7	100.3	97.7	98.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	115.3	114.1	114.9	114.8
Pittsburgh	115.2	114.1	113.7	114.3
North Carolina	107.6	107.9	107.6	107.7
Virginia	101.6	101.6	99.6	100.9
Virginia Tech	100.1	100.6	98.0	99.6
Georgia Tech	92.1	91.7	89.9	91.2
Duke	89.6	92.2	87.0	89.6
ACC	106.7	106.5	105.7	106.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.9	120.1	121.1	120.7
Oklahoma St.	117.1	115.6	116.9	116.5
Baylor	115.2	114.0	114.5	114.6
Texas	113.1	112.2	112.1	112.5
T C U	111.7	110.2	110.4	110.7
Iowa St.	109.5	109.7	110.0	109.7
Kansas St.	110.5	109.0	109.4	109.6
Texas Tech	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
West Virginia	105.1	104.7	103.6	104.5
Kansas	104.2	102.4	101.8	102.8
Big 12	111.5	110.4	110.8	110.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	129.2	127.5	129.9	128.8
Michigan	125.0	123.8	125.0	124.6
Penn St.	118.3	118.2	118.1	118.2
Michigan St.	116.2	115.1	114.4	115.2
Maryland	110.1	110.1	109.8	110.0
Rutgers	101.3	100.7	98.3	100.1
Indiana	101.1	100.4	98.3	99.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	117.0	116.6	116.2	116.6
Minnesota	116.5	115.9	116.9	116.4
Purdue	116.3	115.1	114.2	115.2
Iowa	113.5	112.2	111.6	112.4
Illinois	105.9	106.5	104.2	105.5
Nebraska	100.9	100.6	99.5	100.3
Northwestern	96.9	98.0	94.8	96.6
Big Ten	112.0	111.5	110.8	111.4
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.3	98.5	99.9	98.9
W. Kentucky	97.7	97.6	100.2	98.5
U T S A	97.6	96.2	97.5	97.1
Florida Atlantic	87.8	89.2	87.8	88.3
Middle Tennessee	84.0	85.2	85.3	84.8
North Texas	84.0	83.0	84.8	83.9
U T E P	83.4	83.0	83.1	83.2
Rice	83.0	82.6	82.3	82.6
Louisiana Tech	82.1	83.6	80.9	82.2
Charlotte	79.9	80.9	79.7	80.2
Florida Int’l.	65.2	68.0	63.4	65.5
CUSA	85.7	86.2	85.9	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	111.9	110.1	112.0	111.3
BYU	111.6	109.8	111.5	111.0
Army	98.2	98.6	98.5	98.4
Liberty	96.8	98.6	99.1	98.2
Connecticut	77.8	78.7	75.1	77.2
New Mexico St.	73.5	75.3	72.8	73.9
Massachusetts	72.9	73.3	70.4	72.2
Independents	91.8	92.1	91.3	91.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	90.8	93.4	93.4	92.5
Kent St.	88.1	90.4	88.4	89.0
Bowling Green	87.2	86.2	86.6	86.7
Ohio	84.2	86.3	85.6	85.4
Buffalo	82.1	84.6	84.0	83.5
Akron	75.3	75.8	74.3	75.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	95.5	95.8	95.5	95.6
Toledo	93.7	94.7	95.2	94.5
Western Mich.	92.6	93.6	93.5	93.2
Central Mich.	91.6	93.5	94.4	93.2
Eastern Mich.	88.6	89.1	88.6	88.8
Ball St.	83.4	84.5	83.4	83.7
MAC	87.8	89.0	88.6	88.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	103.3	104.9	104.2
Air Force	101.9	101.9	103.2	102.3
Utah St.	89.9	90.1	90.6	90.2
Wyoming	85.9	88.3	87.3	87.2
New Mexico	84.7	85.2	83.8	84.6
Colorado St.	83.9	84.7	83.9	84.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	101.6	100.9	102.6	101.7
San Diego St.	95.2	94.9	95.4	95.2
U N L V	91.8	89.7	91.9	91.2
San Jose St.	87.8	88.2	89.0	88.3
Nevada	85.9	87.8	85.9	86.5
Hawaii	71.9	73.2	72.6	72.5
MWC	90.4	90.7	90.9	90.7
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.2	115.1	117.8	116.3
Oregon	113.4	112.8	112.8	113.0
U S C	111.1	111.7	112.1	111.6
Oregon St.	109.7	109.2	110.6	109.8
Washington	107.9	108.9	109.2	108.7
U C L A	107.3	107.2	108.7	107.7
Washington St.	102.7	103.4	103.7	103.3
Arizona St.	101.6	101.4	102.3	101.8
Stanford	102.9	100.3	100.9	101.4
California	98.2	98.3	99.5	98.7
Arizona	96.4	96.3	96.3	96.3
Colorado	92.2	90.3	91.0	91.2
Pac-12	105.0	104.6	105.4	105.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	135.3	133.8	136.9	135.3
Tennessee	118.0	118.1	118.6	118.2
Kentucky	112.6	113.4	114.1	113.4
South Carolina	107.5	106.5	107.1	107.0
Florida	105.3	106.8	105.5	105.9
Missouri	101.6	102.0	100.4	101.4
Vanderbilt	95.3	96.3	93.8	95.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.4	128.4	130.7	129.5
Ole Miss	116.9	115.1	115.5	115.8
Arkansas	115.6	113.8	116.0	115.1
L S U	115.5	114.6	114.7	114.9
Mississippi St.	114.5	112.9	113.1	113.5
Texas A&M	111.0	112.1	112.4	111.8
Auburn	107.2	105.7	105.7	106.2
SEC	113.3	112.8	113.2	113.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	98.3	100.0	100.7	99.7
Georgia St.	96.3	95.5	98.5	96.8
Marshall	95.3	96.4	95.7	95.8
James Madison	92.7	94.6	97.6	95.0
Coastal Carolina	92.4	94.0	94.5	93.6
Old Dominion	90.8	90.9	90.8	90.8
Ga. Southern	90.3	89.8	90.8	90.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	93.9	94.2	96.1	94.8
Troy	91.3	91.7	92.9	92.0
South Alabama	90.6	91.1	92.4	91.4
Southern Miss.	87.7	88.4	88.3	88.1
Arkansas St.	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.4	81.4	82.0
Texas St.	80.3	81.4	81.0	80.9
Sun Belt	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.4
3	Big 12	110.9
4	Atlantic Coast	106.3
5	Pac-12	105.0
6	American Athletic	98.6
7	Independents	91.7
8	Sun Belt	91.1
9	Mountain West	90.7
10	Mid-American	88.4
11	Conference USA	85.9

Playoff Projections

1.) Georgia

2.) Ohio St.

3.) Alabama

4.) Oklahoma

Most Likely Top Group of 5 Team

For Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Game

1.) Coastal Carolina

2.) Cincinnati

3.) Appalachian St.

4.) Tulane

PiRate Picks For September 16-17, 2022

That broken clock finally failed to show the correct time on the PiRate Ship. Last week, our five picks came in at 1-4, dropping our profit for the season to $1,211.77 ($1,311.77 left in the imaginary account).

We’re back to where we normally are in September. Usually, when we have a bad week, our saving grace in the past has been Money Line Parlays playing at +140 or higher odds. We had a tough time finding one really good parlay this week. While we like odds in the range of +140 to +180, we couldn’t find the right number of games to make this range work out. We also don’t like to play more than three games in a parlay, so it came down to going with 3 at more than +200 or go to five bigger favorites to get to +155 and change.

We also tend to like to play an odd number of games to eliminate the .500 record that results in a small loss. Of course, when one of those selections is a parlay that pays different than the straight 11-10 odds, a .500 record could be a winning week if one of those wins is the parlay.

Our selections this week are all about the numbers more than the actual teams playing. Without further adieu, here are our selections for the week. Remember: We never wager real money on our picks, and we highly suggest that you follow our lead.

Selection 1: Wyoming +14 1/2 vs. Air Force

This is a nice rivalry game, and the last time the margin of this game exceeded 14 points was 2013. Wyoming’s schedule has been considerably stronger than Air Force’s, as Illinois and Tulsa are both stronger than Colorado. Craig Bohl teams tend to be stronger against the run than the pass, so this looks like a good play to be on the side where the top four margins by frequency come with it (3, 7, 10, and 14 points represent the final margin in 1/4 of all college football games).

Selection #2: Wyoming & Air Force Under 46 1/2

For the same reasons above, this game appeals to us for the total. We think this game is more like a 20-17 game, which falls well under 46 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Maryland -2 1/2 vs. SMU

The PiRates really prefer to go with underdogs that we believe should be favorites, but there were no short ‘dogs this week that really jumped off the page. We believe that Maryland is better than a touchdown stronger than SMU. Game outcomes of 1 and 2 points occur just 5.9% of the time, and that includes 5.9% of the time that the favorite and the underdog win by 1 or 2.

Selection #4: Northern Illinois -2 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

Ditto the game above. Except, Vanderbilt exposed itself by showing its real weakness last week against Wake Forest. The Huskies were somewhat shocked by Tulsa in week one, but they should rebound in week two.

Selection #5: Nebraska and Oklahoma Under 66 1/2

What do you get when you combine a defensive genius head coach coaching in his third ever game against a big rival with a coach making his debut when a few days ago, he was an assistant coach? Usually, you get a hard-fought game that tends to be a little more defense-oriented. The Cornhuskers should play their best game of the season for interim coach Mickey Joseph, while the Sooners may play it a bit more conservatively. An OU win similar to last year’s game, which ended with 39 total points scored.

Selection #6: California and Notre Dame Over 40 1/2

Notre Dame last started a season 0-3 in 2007. Before Irish fans jump out of buildings, they were 0-2 in 2011 with a loss to a weak South Florida team and proceeded to win eight of their next nine games. Cal isn’t the best defensive team in the land, even though the Bears are only giving up 13.5 points per game so far. UC-Davis and UNLV are not offensive juggernauts.

If this game ends 21-20, it beats the total by a half-point. Notre Dame and Marshall combined for 47 points, and Cal’s offense is better than Marshall’s.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay at +204.42

Penn State over Auburn

Texas A&M over Miami (Fla.)

North Carolina St. over Texas Tech

Auburn barely beat a mediocre San Jose State team last week. A weaker Penn State team than this year’s squad defeated a stronger Auburn team than this year’s squad last year.

If Texas A&M loses again this week, Jimbo Fisher might be sharing a beer with Scott Frost the following Saturday somewhere outside of a football stadium.

Texas Tech’s win over Houston is getting a lot more accolades than it probably should have gotten. N.C. State’s narrow escape over East Carolina probably got too much as well. This is still a Wolf Pack team capable of winning the ACC Title.

PiRate Ratings NFL Week 2, September 15-19, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kansas City	LA Chargers	10.0	8.9	11.2
Baltimore	Miami	8.3	7.4	8.0
Cleveland	N.Y. Jets	14.3	12.3	14.3
Detroit	Washington	-0.4	0.7	0.0
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-8.6	-6.5	-8.3
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	-6.2	-7.1	-6.3
N.Y. Giants	Carolina	1.1	2.1	1.8
Pittsburgh	New England	2.3	2.0	1.9
LA Rams	Atlanta	18.6	17.7	18.2
San Francisco	Seattle	11.7	12.0	10.4
Dallas	Cincinnati	2.3	1.9	3.0
Denver	Houston	15.2	14.5	14.2
Las Vegas	Arizona	9.7	9.0	8.7
Green Bay	Chicago	18.0	14.9	16.5
Buffalo	Tennessee	14.4	14.1	14.7
Philadelphia	Minnesota	6.1	5.5	5.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Kansas City	LA Chargers	54
Baltimore	Miami	39.5
Cleveland	N.Y. Jets	45.5
Detroit	Washington	46.5
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	47
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	46.5
N.Y. Giants	Carolina	41
Pittsburgh	New England	44
LA Rams	Atlanta	47.5
San Francisco	Seattle	41.5
Dallas	Cincinnati	49
Denver	Houston	42
Las Vegas	Arizona	50
Green Bay	Chicago	40.5
Buffalo	Tennessee	46
Philadelphia	Minnesota	48.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Buffalo	110.8	110.9	111.0	110.9	23.5	1-0
New England	99.7	99.7	100.4	99.9	21	0-1
Miami	99.2	99.7	99.3	99.4	19	1-0
N.Y. Jets	92.6	93.4	92.0	92.7	24	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	104.5	104.1	104.4	104.3	20.5	1-0
Cincinnati	104.8	103.9	104.2	104.3	24.5	0-1
Cleveland	103.8	102.7	103.3	103.3	21.5	1-0
Pittsburgh	99.0	98.7	99.3	99.0	23	1-0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Indianapolis	102.4	101.7	102.3	102.1	24	0-0-1
Tennessee	99.4	99.8	99.3	99.5	22.5	0-1
Jacksonville	90.8	92.2	91.1	91.4	23	0-1
Houston	88.2	90.2	88.8	89.0	21.5	0-0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	108.3	108.0	108.9	108.4	27.5	1-0
Las Vegas	104.8	104.7	104.1	104.5	25	0-1
LA Chargers	101.3	102.1	100.6	101.4	26.5	1-0
Denver	100.9	102.2	100.5	101.2	20.5	0-1
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.1	102.9	104.1	103.7	24.5	0-1
Philadelphia	104.1	103.1	103.3	103.5	25	1-0
Washington	97.4	96.9	97.2	97.2	22	1-0
N.Y. Giants	93.0	94.4	93.6	93.7	19.5	1-0
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Green Bay	106.9	105.0	106.2	106.0	22	0-1
Minnesota	101.1	100.6	101.4	101.0	23.5	1-0
Detroit	94.0	94.7	94.2	94.3	24.5	0-1
Chicago	91.4	92.6	92.2	92.1	18.5	1-0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tampa Bay	110.7	110.1	110.6	110.5	25.5	1-0
New Orleans	101.5	100.0	101.3	100.9	21	1-0
Carolina	94.9	95.3	94.8	95.0	21.5	0-1
Atlanta	89.9	90.8	90.3	90.3	24	0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	105.6	105.4	105.4	105.5	23.5	0-1
San Francisco	102.9	102.6	102.8	102.7	21.5	0-1
Arizona	97.6	98.2	97.8	97.9	25	0-1
Seattle	94.1	93.6	95.4	94.4	20	1-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Buffalo
2	Kansas City
3	Pittsburgh
4	Indianapolis
5	LA Chargers
6	Miami
7	Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1	Tampa Bay
2	LA Rams
3	Minnesota
4	Philadelphia
5	New Orleans
6	Green Bay
7	Washington

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Miami over Pittsburgh
LA Chargers over Indianapolis
LA Rams over Washington
Minnesota over Green Bay
Philadelphia over New Orleans
Divisional Round
Buffalo over Miami
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Minnesota over LA Rams
Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Tampa Bay over Minnesota
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Tampa Bay

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 16-17, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	Florida St.	-0.5	-1.1	-0.9
Wyoming	Air Force	-17.9	-15.3	-18.2
Miami (O)	Cincinnati	-18.8	-15.0	-17.7
Michigan	Connecticut	48.7	45.9	51.5
Syracuse	Purdue	-5.1	-4.9	-4.3
Temple	Rutgers	-22.8	-19.7	-22.5
Baylor	Texas St.	37.5	35.2	36.0
Indiana	Western Kentucky	6.6	6.2	0.9
South Carolina	Georgia	-20.7	-19.7	-22.6
Nebraska	Oklahoma	-11.5	-10.6	-12.9
Coastal Carolina	Buffalo	13.5	12.4	14.2
Iowa St.	Ohio	28.0	25.4	26.3
New Mexico	UTEP	0.7	1.5	-0.5
Virginia	Old Dominion	13.9	14.0	11.9
UCLA	South Alabama	22.1	21.5	22.2
Notre Dame	California	18.1	16.1	17.2
UNLV	North Texas	4.8	3.4	3.5
Kansas St.	Tulane	15.0	14.2	14.7
Wisconsin	New Mexico St.	43.9	41.0	43.3
Auburn	Penn St.	-2.8	-4.2	-3.6
Northern Illinois	Vanderbilt	5.5	4.8	7.8
Minnesota	Colorado	23.5	24.8	25.1
Georgia Tech	Ole Miss	-16.4	-14.6	-16.8
Oregon	BYU	0.8	2.1	-0.1
UAB	Georgia Southern	10.2	10.8	11.2
Appalachian St.	Troy	10.1	11.8	11.6
Houston	Kansas	6.4	8.0	10.7
Alabama	UL-Monroe	49.5	48.0	51.7
Washington St.	Colorado St.	19.2	19.0	19.8
Wake Forest	Liberty	14.6	12.1	11.4
Bowling Green	Marshall	-6.3	-8.9	-7.8
LSU	Mississippi St.	1.2	2.0	1.4
Ohio St.	Toledo	34.5	31.1	33.1
Tennessee	Akron	43.5	42.8	44.5
Georgia St.	Charlotte	23.6	21.6	26.8
North Carolina St.	Texas Tech	12.5	13.0	12.2
Memphis	Arkansas St.	16.6	15.5	15.8
Florida Atlantic	Central Florida	-13.9	-12.8	-14.2
Florida	South Florida	13.9	17.3	15.5
Maryland	SMU	8.8	9.7	8.0
Washington	Michigan St.	-10.1	-7.8	-6.8
Western Michigan	Pittsburgh	-20.1	-17.6	-16.9
Iowa	Nevada	31.1	27.4	28.9
Rice	Lousiana	-13.9	-15.0	-17.6
Texas	UTSA	18.3	18.7	17.2
Clemson	Louisiana Tech	41.9	40.3	44.2
Texas A&M	Miami (Fla.)	-2.6	0.1	-1.0
Utah	San Diego St.	23.6	22.3	25.0
USC	Fresno St.	9.1	10.4	8.7
Arizona St.	Eastern Michigan	21.7	20.9	23.0

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Arizona	North Dakota St.	3.3
Arkansas	Missouri St.	31.3
Army	Villanova	11.8
Ball St.	Murray St.	21.6
Boise St.	UT-Martin	24.3
Boston College	Maine	27.1
Central Michigan	Bucknell	37.3
Duke	North Carolina A&T	25.4
East Carolina	Campbell	30.4
Hawaii	Duquesne	12.0
Kent St.	Long Island	28.8
Kentucky	Youngstown St.	33.7
Massachusetts	Stony Brook	-1.0
Middle Tennessee	Tennessee St.	24.6
Missouri	Abilene Christian	28.4
Northwestern	Southern Illinois	18.6
Oklahoma St.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	54.3
Oregon St.	Montana St.	18.3
Southern Miss.	Northwestern St.	25.4
Tulsa	Jacksonville St.	20.5
Virginia Tech	Wofford	31.2
West Virginia	Towson St.	32.6

Teams With Bye Weeks

Navy

North Carolina

TCU

Illinois

Florida Int’l.

Utah St.

San Jose St.

Stanford

James Madison

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	133.2
2	Alabama	129.1
3	Ohio St.	126.6
4	Michigan	124.0
5	Clemson	120.5
6	Oklahoma	118.5
7	Michigan St.	117.6
8	NC State	117.1
9	Tennessee	117.0
10	Oklahoma St.	116.4
11	Utah	116.1
12	Arkansas	115.8
13	Purdue	115.7
14	Penn St.	115.6
15	Miami (Fla.)	115.5
16	Wisconsin	115.3
17	Mississippi St.	114.9
18	Baylor	114.6
19	Minnesota	114.5
20	Pittsburgh	114.1
21	Kentucky	113.6
22	L S U	113.5
23	BYU	113.0
24	Ole Miss	113.0
25	Iowa	112.5
26	Texas	112.3
27	Notre Dame	112.2
28	Florida St.	112.2
29	Kansas St.	112.0
30	Cincinnati	111.9
31	Texas A&M	111.4
32	Oregon	111.0
33	T C U	110.4
34	Maryland	110.1
35	U S C	109.9
36	U C L A	109.4
37	Iowa St.	109.3
38	South Carolina	109.2
39	Auburn	109.1
40	Oregon St.	108.6
41	Louisville	108.3
42	Syracuse	107.9
43	Texas Tech	107.5
44	North Carolina	107.4
45	Florida	107.0
46	Wake Forest	106.8
47	Washington	106.3
48	UCF	105.2
49	Illinois	105.2
50	Arizona St.	105.1
51	Houston	105.0
52	Air Force	104.6
53	SMU	104.3
54	Boise St.	104.1
55	Nebraska	103.8
56	West Virginia	103.5
57	Fresno St.	103.5
58	Missouri	102.0
59	Rutgers	101.9
60	Washington St.	101.9
61	Virginia	101.7
62	East Carolina	101.4
63	Stanford	101.1
64	Indiana	100.4
65	Tulane	100.3
66	Appalachian St.	100.2
67	Virginia Tech	100.0
68	Kansas	99.7
69	Georgia St.	99.5
70	Boston College	99.2
71	Northwestern	98.9
72	U A B	98.7
73	Memphis	98.5
74	W. Kentucky	98.3
75	California	98.1
76	Louisiana	98.0
77	U T S A	97.3
78	Army	97.2
79	N. Illinois	97.1
80	Toledo	96.7
81	Liberty	96.6
82	Arizona	96.3
83	Marshall	96.3
84	San Diego St.	95.5
85	Tulsa	94.9
86	James Madison	94.8
87	Georgia Tech	94.0
88	Coastal Carolina	93.8
89	Vanderbilt	93.6
90	USF	93.4
91	Western Mich.	93.4
92	Colorado	93.1
93	Central Mich.	93.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	92.8
95	Troy	91.5
96	Ga. Southern	90.5
97	South Alabama	90.4
98	Old Dominion	90.4
99	Utah St.	90.0
100	Florida Atlantic	89.6
101	Duke	89.4
102	U N L V	88.4
103	Kent St.	88.3
104	San Jose St.	88.1
105	Navy	87.0
106	North Texas	87.0
107	Southern Miss.	86.6
108	Nevada	86.4
109	Eastern Mich.	86.2
110	Bowling Green	86.2
111	Ohio	85.8
112	Colorado St.	85.5
113	U T E P	85.1
114	Wyoming	84.9
115	Arkansas St.	84.5
116	Middle Tennessee	84.0
117	Ball St.	83.4
118	Buffalo	83.4
119	New Mexico	83.2
120	UL-Monroe	82.4
121	Louisiana Tech	81.4
122	Texas St.	80.9
123	Rice	79.9
124	Connecticut	78.3
125	Temple	78.3
126	Charlotte	78.0
127	Akron	76.4
128	New Mexico St.	75.5
129	Hawaii	72.6
130	Massachusetts	71.5
131	Florida Int’l.	65.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.7	110.8	113.3	111.9
UCF	104.9	105.4	105.4	105.2
Houston	104.8	104.3	106.0	105.0
SMU	104.4	103.6	104.8	104.3
East Carolina	101.1	100.8	102.2	101.4
Tulane	100.8	100.1	100.1	100.3
Memphis	98.4	98.8	98.3	98.5
Tulsa	95.1	94.5	95.1	94.9
USF	94.4	92.8	93.2	93.4
Navy	88.0	87.0	86.1	87.0
Temple	78.3	80.7	75.8	78.3
AAC	98.4	98.1	98.2	98.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.3	120.2	121.1	120.5
NC State	117.4	116.4	117.5	117.1
Florida St.	112.6	112.0	112.0	112.2
Louisville	109.1	107.9	108.1	108.3
Syracuse	108.7	107.6	107.4	107.9
Wake Forest	107.2	106.7	106.6	106.8
Boston College	99.0	100.6	98.0	99.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	116.1	114.7	115.8	115.5
Pittsburgh	115.2	113.9	113.3	114.1
North Carolina	107.3	107.6	107.3	107.4
Virginia	102.3	102.4	100.3	101.7
Virginia Tech	100.5	101.0	98.4	100.0
Georgia Tech	94.8	94.6	92.8	94.0
Duke	89.4	92.0	86.8	89.4
ACC	107.1	107.0	106.1	106.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	118.8	117.8	118.9	118.5
Oklahoma St.	117.0	115.5	116.8	116.4
Baylor	115.3	114.0	114.5	114.6
Texas	113.0	112.1	111.9	112.3
Kansas St.	112.8	111.3	111.8	112.0
T C U	111.4	109.9	110.1	110.4
Iowa St.	109.3	109.2	109.5	109.3
Texas Tech	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
West Virginia	104.1	103.7	102.6	103.5
Kansas	101.4	99.3	98.4	99.7
Big 12	111.1	109.9	110.3	110.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	127.2	125.2	127.6	126.6
Michigan	124.5	123.0	124.5	124.0
Michigan St.	118.6	117.4	116.7	117.6
Penn St.	115.8	115.7	115.4	115.6
Maryland	110.2	110.3	109.9	110.1
Rutgers	103.1	102.4	100.3	101.9
Indiana	101.6	101.0	98.6	100.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Purdue	116.7	115.5	114.7	115.7
Wisconsin	115.8	115.1	114.8	115.3
Minnesota	114.6	114.0	115.0	114.5
Iowa	113.7	112.2	111.7	112.5
Illinois	105.6	106.2	103.9	105.2
Nebraska	104.3	104.2	103.0	103.8
Northwestern	99.2	100.3	97.1	98.9
Big Ten	112.2	111.6	110.9	111.6
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.1	98.3	99.7	98.7
W. Kentucky	97.5	97.3	100.2	98.3
U T S A	97.7	96.3	97.7	97.3
Florida Atlantic	89.0	90.6	89.2	89.6
North Texas	86.9	86.1	88.0	87.0
U T E P	85.2	84.8	85.2	85.1
Middle Tennessee	83.2	84.4	84.5	84.0
Louisiana Tech	81.4	82.9	79.9	81.4
Rice	80.5	79.9	79.4	79.9
Charlotte	77.8	78.9	77.2	78.0
Florida Int’l.	65.0	67.8	63.2	65.3
CUSA	85.7	86.1	85.9	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Average	Average
BYU	113.6	111.7	113.7	113.0
Notre Dame	112.8	110.9	113.0	112.2
Army	97.0	97.4	97.3	97.2
Liberty	95.2	97.1	97.6	96.6
Connecticut	78.8	80.0	76.1	78.3
New Mexico St.	75.0	77.1	74.5	75.5
Massachusetts	72.2	72.6	69.7	71.5
Independents	92.1	92.4	91.7	92.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	90.9	93.8	93.6	92.8
Kent St.	87.4	89.7	87.7	88.3
Bowling Green	86.9	85.6	86.0	86.2
Ohio	84.4	86.8	86.1	85.8
Buffalo	82.0	84.6	83.7	83.4
Akron	76.4	77.1	75.7	76.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	96.9	97.2	97.3	97.1
Toledo	95.7	97.0	97.5	96.7
Western Mich.	92.6	93.8	93.9	93.4
Central Mich.	91.4	93.3	94.2	93.0
Eastern Mich.	86.1	86.6	85.8	86.2
Ball St.	83.1	84.2	83.1	83.4
MAC	87.8	89.1	88.7	88.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Air Force	104.1	104.0	105.6	104.6
Boise St.	104.2	103.2	104.8	104.1
Utah St.	89.7	89.9	90.4	90.0
Colorado St.	85.2	86.1	85.4	85.5
Wyoming	83.7	86.2	84.9	84.9
New Mexico	83.4	83.9	82.2	83.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.3	102.6	104.5	103.5
San Diego St.	95.4	95.3	95.6	95.5
U N L V	89.2	86.9	89.0	88.4
San Jose St.	87.6	88.0	88.8	88.1
Nevada	85.7	87.8	85.8	86.4
Hawaii	72.0	73.3	72.7	72.6
MWC	90.3	90.6	90.8	90.6
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.0	114.7	117.6	116.1
Oregon	111.4	110.9	110.6	111.0
U S C	109.4	110.0	110.2	109.9
U C L A	108.9	108.8	110.5	109.4
Oregon St.	108.5	108.0	109.4	108.6
Washington	105.5	106.6	106.9	106.3
Arizona St.	104.8	104.6	105.8	105.1
Washington St.	101.4	102.0	102.2	101.9
Stanford	102.6	100.0	100.6	101.1
California	97.6	97.8	98.8	98.1
Arizona	96.4	96.3	96.3	96.3
Colorado	94.1	92.2	92.9	93.1
Pac-12	104.7	104.3	105.2	104.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.2	131.5	134.8	133.2
Tennessee	116.9	116.8	117.2	117.0
Kentucky	112.8	113.6	114.3	113.6
South Carolina	109.6	108.8	109.2	109.2
Florida	106.2	108.1	106.7	107.0
Missouri	102.2	102.6	101.0	102.0
Vanderbilt	93.9	94.9	92.0	93.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.1	127.9	130.4	129.1
Arkansas	116.3	114.5	116.7	115.8
Mississippi St.	115.9	114.3	114.7	114.9
L S U	114.1	113.2	113.1	113.5
Ole Miss	114.2	112.2	112.6	113.0
Texas A&M	110.5	111.8	111.8	111.4
Auburn	110.0	108.5	108.7	109.1
SEC	113.2	112.8	113.1	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	98.6	100.5	101.3	100.2
Georgia St.	98.9	98.0	101.5	99.5
Marshall	95.6	97.0	96.3	96.3
James Madison	92.5	94.4	97.4	94.8
Coastal Carolina	92.5	94.0	94.8	93.8
Ga. Southern	90.5	90.0	91.0	90.5
Old Dominion	90.4	90.4	90.4	90.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	96.9	97.4	99.5	98.0
Troy	91.0	91.2	92.3	91.5
South Alabama	89.7	90.2	91.3	90.4
Southern Miss.	86.2	86.9	86.8	86.6
Arkansas St.	83.8	85.3	84.5	84.5
UL-Monroe	82.6	82.9	81.7	82.4
Texas St.	80.2	81.4	81.0	80.9
Sun Belt	90.7	91.4	92.1	91.4

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	111.6
3	Big 12	110.4
4	Atlantic Coast	106.7
5	Pac-12	104.7
6	American Athletic	98.2
7	Independents	92.1
8	Sun Belt	91.4
9	Mountain West	90.6
10	Mid-American	88.6
11	Conference USA	85.9

A Tale of Two Conferences

In the mid 1990’s, Conference USA formed when the old Metro Conference dissolved. The league was founded to combine two former basketball conferences into a Midwestern league. At the time, it also had some rather successful football teams. Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Southern Miss., UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, East Carolina, and Army were all early members of the new league. Then, TCU joined and had a top 5 season in the early 2000’s. The league saw early success, and with that, the Big East raided CUSA and took Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida. Seeing the writing on the wall, TCU bolted for the Mountain West, where an incredible rivalry with Boise State ensued. CUSA then expanded with new members, making the league quite relevant, as the new teams provided numerous upsets over Power Conference opponents. Central Florida, SMU, Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, and Marshall joined the league and all found some successful seasons. Then, the American Athletic Conference formed, and once again, CUSA lost some significant teams in Memphis, Tulane, Houston, Central Florida, SMU, and Tulsa.

The Sun Belt Conference began as a basketball league back in the mid-1970’s, and in its early years, the league jumped over many others in the Low and Mid-Major area. There was a year where four SBC teams made the NCAA Tournament. The league saw teams come and go, as it struggled financially. They even kicked New Orleans out of the conference because the Privateers did not have a Division 1 level gymnasium.

The Sun Belt decided to sponsor football beginning in the early part of this century. Almost annually, the makeup of the league changed. Teams as far west as Utah State and Idaho joined the conference at times, as they played in the same league with teams from Florida. When Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, and UAB all left the Sun Belt for CUSA in a matter of a couple of seasons, it looked like CUSA would force the SBC back to a basketball conference, while CUSA continued to thrive with some respectable programs.

Then, something happened. About the time that the SEC was becoming a super league and superior to all others, and all their member schools began recruiting nationally instead of regionally, a lot of really good Southeastern recruits started to lose out to the elite 5-star and high 4-star talents from all over America. These low 4-star and 3-star players had once filled SEC rosters, but now they needed to find other schools. Many of them chose to stay near their homes, and that mean Sun Belt Conference schools.

Schools like Troy, Georgia Southern, and what was still known as Louisiana-Lafayette started getting players that used to go to Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. The addition of Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State to the league as they moved to FBS brought some solid former FCS programs that further strengthened this league. All of a sudden, the SBC passed CUSA, and it was CUSA that almost died when the 2021 expansion routlette began. Texas and Oklahoma decided to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, so the Big 12 robbed the AAC of its three best schools, and then the AAC robbed CUSA of its largest market schools. Three schools, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss quickly petitioned the Sun Belt for admission and were fast-tracked. Then the league found a real diamond in the rough in James Madison. Meanwhile, CUSA had to look for crumbs just to survive. They secured markers for FCS schools Jacksonville State and Sam Houston, and then added Liberty and New Mexico State as future members. It was almost too late, because both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee came very close to leaving for the Mid-American Conference.

In just five or six years, the Sun Belt rose from weakeast FBS league by far to possibly the strongest. Once Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida leave the American, the SBC should be better than the new AAC with CUSA teams. It has already passed the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Conference USA football as a whole might not be as strong as the FCS Missouri Valley Football Conference once the league is reduced to ashes by the departures of its top markets.

PiRate Picks For September 9-10, 2022

Last week, the most important part of our PiRate Picks publication was telling you that a broken clock is still correct twice a day. Please remember this, because we have experienced our broken clock accuracy up front this year. For the second week in a row, our selections went 3-0 to give us a 6-0 record to start the season. We know there are about 150-200 new visitors to this site since the 2021-22 College Football National Championship. Get this and get it good–we are not svengali’s. We are not Billy Walters. We aren’t even Brent Musberger and his incredible cast of handicappers. What are we? Really lucky and not much more than that.

Every week, we preface our selections by urging (begging) you not to wager real currency on the selections you read on this site. We know that there are a considerable number of professional speculators in the Nevada gold mines. We don’t have to tell you what to do with your occupation. It’s Joe Tackletrap in Wichita Falls, Texas, who makes $40,000 a year working himself silly that can ill afford to lose $500 that we have concerns about losing $500 because he wagered $100 each on five selections and lost them all, as he saw his mortgage payment money taken away.

Last week, we casually mentioned that there were some people in Nevada that we had information that they were following this site. Wow! We heard from six different people, two of whom represent a consortium of others, telling us they follow this site. And, they were not all from Las Vegas. We have to give some love to the biggest little city in America–Reno. There’s somebody there that sent us a little note.

For one paragraph, let’s pretend that we really did speculate these first two weeks of the football season, wagering $100 ($110) on margins and totals and $100 on the money line parlay. With the 6-0 record, including a parlay that paid back $241.77, our pretend starting bank account of $1,000 would now be worth $1,641.77. Making a 64% profit in two weeks in real life would quickly lead us to cash out and play no more games. That would be our Holiday Fund for this year.

What are the chances that our picks will be perfect again this week? The prior best first three week start we have ever had was a 9-3-1 start to the 2008 season. In most years, September is our worst month, with a big turnaround in October. Thus, we still do not have much confidence in our September picks. It’s merely the law of averages giving us a positive outlier.

Now that we have adequately warned you, we present our picks for this week. We are going with five selections.

Selection #1: Missouri and Kansas State UNDER 56 1/2

Our belief here is that the Wildcats will play a bit conservatively in the first half trying to keep the ball away from the Tiger offense, as Coach Chris Kleiman is a defense first leader. Missouri scored 52 points against a weak Louisiana Tech defense, and our belief is that the totals line might be a tad too high due to this. KSU’s defense pitched a shutout over FCS South Dakota. The Coyotes are not the top team in the Mount Rushmore state, but their offense is consistent. We see this game as a 28-20 win for the Wildcats. That gives us an extra touchdown to be wrong and still be right.

Selection #2: Iowa and Iowa State OVER 39 1/2

Iowa failed to reach the end zone against South Dakota State, winning 7-3 on a field goal and two safeties. The public looked at a Big Ten team’s offense failing to score on an FCS opponent and didn’t realize two important factors. First, South Dakota State is probably better than 60-75 FBS teams. Second, a college football team improves the most during a season in the practices between game one and game two. You can bet that this week in Iowa City, the offensive units in Hawkeye Land have had just about enough of hearing how lame they were in the opener. Over in Ames, Iowa State’s offense is far superior to its defense. Giving up 10 points to SEMO is nothing like Iowa’s holding SDSU to 3. SEMO is a mediocre Ohio Valley Conference team. Iowa will unleash its offense this week and top 20 points. Our hope is that Iowa State will respond in kind and make this a 24-21 game, topping 39 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Florida and Kentucky OVER 52 1/2

Florida came through for us last week, winning as an underdog when we believed the wrong team was favored. Kentucky overcame a slow start and eventually slaughtered a decent but not spectacular Miami of Ohio team. We believe that the Florida team that almost beat Alabama in 2021 before the team quit on former coach Dan Mullen has returned. If they could score 29 on Alabama last year and 29 on a tough Utah defense in week one, the Gators should put the chomp on Kentucky’s defense for more than 35 points. Can Kentucky’s offense produce 17 points or more? We think they Wildcats will top 20 points, and thus we believe the total in this game will top 56.

Selection #4: Arizona +11 1/2 vs. Mississippi State

This game is a tad different from how we normally play home underdogs. We tend to like our home dogs to get 1 to 7 points. We are making an exception here because it is our belief that few too people saw how the Wildcats went to San Diego State on the Christening of their new stadium and spoiled the party for the home team. We have been keeping our eyes on Coach Jedd Fisch since his arrival in Tucson. It is our beliefe that ‘Zona may have found their football equivalent of Lute Olson. His pedigree is about as incredible as a long-time assistant coach can own. Going up against a Mike Leach-coached team, this late night desert dogfight is going to give us reason to brew an evening pot of coffee. This could be the most entertaining game of Week Two, and we expect the home team to be in it for the entire 60 minutes. What’s great about this selection is that the superior SEC is having to play at the Pac-12 opponent’s home field rather than watch the Pac-12 team make the 2,000+ mile trip to the Southeast. Mississippi State could win this game 31-21, 34-24, 38-28, 35-24, 38-27 and still not cover. We tend to believe that this game will be a 3 to 7 point game in either direction.

Selection #5: Money Line Parlay at +172.97

Central Florida over Louisville

Arkansas over South Carolina

Florida over Kentucky

Louisville looked terrible in a blowout loss at Syracuse and did not look ready to play. Coach Scott Satterfield is sitting on a scorching hot seat, as he has had UL detractors since his hiring. At the same time, Gus Malzahn has quickly become a favored coach in Orlando, and Central Florida looks like a real contender for the American Athletic Conference Championship. In addition, UCF has had this game circled on their schedule and calendar. UL won this game on a pick six last year. The Cardinals are headed to an ambush in Orlando.

The Arkansas-South Carolina game should be quite interesting as two very good SEC teams face off in Fayetteville. We were a bit concerned with Spencer Rattler’s performance against Georgia State, as it was a little too similar to the performances he turned in at Oklahoma, which cost him his starting spot. Arkansas has a much better pass rush and secondary than Georgia State, and their offense at times pushed Cincinnati’s defense around. We see Pig Sooey winning by 10-14 points if not more.

Kentucky has defeated Florida twice in four years, after going mutiple decades without a win over the Gators. Billy Napier has quickly become a favorite in the Swamp almost on par with Steve Spurrier. He probably is the most like former Gator coaches Ray Graves and Doug Dickey than Spurrier or any coaches since. The Gators will be prepared and ready to play every week. Napier is part of both the Nick Saben and Dabo Swinney coaching trees. He knows how to run a program, and his year at Louisiana proved it. Kentucky and coach Mark Stoops are not exactly chopped liver. The Wildcats have a potent team with an NFL prospect under center. Will Levis could be a top three pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kentucky could be the second best team in the SEC East, but they could be the third or fourth best too. We believe that the Gators will come into this game not resting on their laurels after pulling off the biggest win of Week One. Napier won’t let them get swollen heads. We’re going with Florida in a thriller, and we see the Gators winning 38-28.