PiRate Ratings Picks For December 12-16, 2019

Davey19 Concludes College Football Regular Season With Second Perfect Slate In 3 Weeks!

Our experimental Davey19 forecast model went 3-0 last week during Conference Championship Week, correctly picking against the spread the AAC, Big 12, and Sun Belt Conference Championship Games.  This led to a final four weeks record of 22-8-1 or 73.3% against the spread, which is smashingly excellent.  It left the Davey19 system well in the black for the season.

We discovered quite early in the year that this system apparently works best on conference games in college football.  It was so-so with non-conference football and totally useless with NFL games.  So, because of that, Davey19 is being shut down for the college bowl season and the remainder of the NFL season.  We will continue to experiment with this system next year when the college teams play conference games, and then if we have another successful year, especially wiping up in November as the sample size increases, we may remove the “experimental” tag from the system name.

 

What you will get for the rest of the season are the regular PiRate Ratings selections, or in other words, the most useless but entertaining picks against the spread and the money line.  We are throwing caution to the wind coming up with picks so out in left field, that they are on top of the roof across the street from old Griffith Stadium in Washington.  For those of you under the age of 85 or not an architectural fan of old demolished baseball parks, it was over 400 feet to left field at Washington’s Griffith Stadium for most of its existence, until players like Harmon Killebrew, Roy Sievers, and Jim Lemon wore Washington Senators jerseys.  Therefore, the roof on top of the building over the left field wall was only reachable by visiting players like Jimmy Foxx and, of course, Mickey Mantle.

FYI: Mantle’s  565 foot blast over the bleachers at Griffith was hit to left-center and landed on Oakdale Street three houses down from the ballpark.  The Yankees’ radio announcer said something to the effect that somebody should get out a tape measure to see how far the blast carried.  Thus, the term “Tape Measure Home Run” was coined.  Additionally, the ball might have traveled several feet more had it not grazed the edge of the football scoreboard.  I would cite the source for this, but this is from aged memory without actually looking it up.

Okay, now that we’ve diverted your attention away from our crazy, goofy, insane, but free picks, here is how we are progressing the rest of the way.  You will receive our expertly “It seemed like a good idea at the time” selections.  Don’t you dare use them to wager real money on games unless you also like to touch live electricity while swimming in a pool.  None of the PiRates have ever wagered a dollar on any of the selections that appear on this site.  While we do know that there are pros, even two Sharps, that use our site for information, they are using our regular weekly ratings and have different algorithms and rules to apply to them to make profits.  These different Sharps are using data completely different from each other, and from one of them (actually somebody in the public eye as a pro), this person plugged numbers into a computer for weeks before discovering this anomaly that led to about 65.2% success against the spread over the last 6 years.  We take great pain to never issue these picks on this site for two reasons.  First, this person told us this in confidence and revealing it publicly means the odds might change and ruin this person’s very hard work.  Second, the minute we recommend these picks, luck will turn the other way and make them stop working.

Therefore, we seldom if ever make straight selections against the spread or the totals that might second what the successful system also chooses.  We have fun devising teaser and money line parlays, looking for the big odds payout.  Davey19 is totally different, as it is a mechanical system for picking conference games in college with occasional non-conference games selected.  While there have been times where Davey19 and the Sharp have selected the same games, we have tried to censor those games from Davey19 when there are enough other games the system chooses.  For instance, one week Davey19 flagged 10 games, but we only issued 7, because the other three were games that the Sharp also keyed.

So, here are our strictly for fun parlays for week 15 of the NFL system.  There have been some highly successful weeks with these picks, but there have been even more losing weeks, so once again, please look at these just for fun and do not wager these selections based on reading them here.

 

10-Point Teasers @ 10-12

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Kansas City	0.5	Kansas City
Carolina	Seattle	4	Seattle
Jacksonville	Oakland	3.5	Oakland

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arizona	Cleveland	7.5	Cleveland
Dallas	LA Rams	8.5	LA Rams
Indianapolis	New Orleans	1.5	New Orleans

 

 

13-Point Teasers @ 10-13

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Baltimore	N.Y. Jets	29.5	N.Y. Jets
Green Bay	Chicago	17.5	Chicago
Chicago	Green Bay	8.5	Green Bay
Minnesota	LA Chargers	15.5	LA Chargers

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
LA Chargers	Minnesota	10.5	Minnesota
San Francisco	Atlanta	24	Atlanta
Pittsburgh	Buffalo	15	Buffalo
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	11	Pittsburgh

 

7-Point Teaser @ 10-13

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
New England	Cincinnati	2	New England
Detroit	Tampa Bay	3.5	Tampa Bay

 

 

Money Line Parlays

#1–1 Game at +435

In other words, this is a major upset pick that we just have a feeling about due to the favorite having played three tough games in a row and an underdog that can score points and plays better on the road than at home.

Winner	Loser
Atlanta	San Francisco

 

#2–2 Games at +156

Winner	Loser
Tennessee	Houston
Philadelphia	Washington

 

#3–2 Games at +198

Winner	Loser
Cleveland	Arizona
Minnesota	LA Chargers

 

#4–3 Games at +224

Winner	Loser
Kansas City	Denver
New England	Cincinnati
Buffalo	Pittsburgh

 

#5–3 Games at +241

Winner	Loser
Green Bay	Chicago
LA Rams	Dallas
New Orleans	Indianapolis

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	19.3	18.9	20.6
Detroit	Tampa Bay	1.2	-1.8	-2.0
Washington	Philadelphia	-6.6	-4.1	-4.0
Green Bay	Chicago	1.0	3.5	3.6
Cincinnati	New England	-12.2	-12.8	-11.9
Tennessee	Houston	4.0	4.3	4.7
Carolina	Seattle	-5.0	-5.0	-5.0
Kansas City	Denver	7.8	8.0	8.0
N. Y. Giants	Miami	5.7	5.5	5.8
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	5.3	5.7	5.2
Oakland	Jacksonville	4.1	4.0	4.3
Arizona	Cleveland	-3.9	-4.1	-3.6
San Francisco	Atlanta	13.7	14.5	15.3
Dallas	LA Rams	-1.5	-0.2	-1.2
LA Chargers	Minnesota	0.1	1.3	0.4
New Orleans	Indianapolis	11.2	8.3	9.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	45.5
Detroit	Tampa Bay	53.5
Washington	Philadelphia	42
Green Bay	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	New England	42
Tennessee	Houston	44.5
Carolina	Seattle	50
Kansas City	Denver	50
N. Y. Giants	Miami	52
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	37.5
Oakland	Jacksonville	43.5
Arizona	Cleveland	47
San Francisco	Atlanta	51.5
Dallas	LA Rams	47
LA Chargers	Minnesota	44
New Orleans	Indianapolis	50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	107.8	108.4	107.8	108.0	19.5	10-3
Buffalo	101.8	102.8	102.8	102.5	17.5	9-4
N. Y. Jets	94.5	95.1	94.1	94.6	21	5-8
Miami	89.7	90.0	89.9	89.9	27.5	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.3	111.4	112.2	111.7	24.5	11-2
Pittsburgh	99.5	100.1	100.6	100.0	20	8-5
Cleveland	99.2	99.5	99.5	99.4	23	6-7
Cincinnati	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	22.5	1-12
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	102.5	103.0	103.1	102.9	20.5	8-5
Houston	101.5	101.7	101.4	101.6	24	8-5
Indianapolis	99.1	100.1	99.6	99.6	23.5	6-7
Jacksonville	90.7	90.7	90.5	90.6	18	4-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.4	105.1	104.9	104.8	30.5	9-4
LA Chargers	104.1	104.0	103.4	103.8	22	5-8
Denver	99.7	100.1	99.9	99.9	19.5	5-8
Oakland	91.8	91.7	91.8	91.8	25.5	6-7
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	102.6	102.9	102.4	102.6	22	6-7
Philadelphia	101.0	99.4	99.0	99.8	24	6-7
N.Y. Giants	92.9	93.0	93.2	93.0	24.5	2-11
Washington	91.9	92.8	92.5	92.4	18	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.5	105.2	105.4	105.7	22	9-4
Green Bay	101.7	101.8	102.0	101.8	24.5	10-3
Chicago	103.2	100.8	100.9	101.6	18	7-6
Detroit	97.3	95.8	95.9	96.4	23.5	3-9-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.3	105.4	105.8	106.2	26.5	10-3
Tampa Bay	99.1	100.6	101.0	100.2	30	6-7
Atlanta	98.6	98.7	98.4	98.5	26	4-9
Carolina	95.2	95.0	95.2	95.1	26	5-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	109.3	110.2	110.7	110.1	25.5	11-2
LA Rams	106.6	105.6	106.1	106.1	25	8-5
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.2	103.1	24	10-3
Arizona	92.8	92.9	93.4	93.0	24	3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL Schedule Recommendation

The NFL has discussed contracting the number of games in the preseason, while possibly adding extra games to the regular season schedule and increasing the number of teams in the Playoffs.  Us PiRates here on the SS Buckaroo believe we can solve all the problems and make it a win-win for owners, players, and fans alike.  Here is our PiRate Principles for the NFL’s future.

1. Reduce the number of preseason games from 4 to 2

2. Make training camp 6 weeks long with preseason games during week 3 and week 4.  Then, teams can practice for another week after their second preseason game before making final cuts.

3. Expand Rosters to 60 players with 3 active quarterbacks in that group of 60

4. A practice or taxi squad of 7 players would be allowed.

5. Expand the regular season to 17 games, with the extra game played at neutral sites.  This would allow teams to play in London, Toronto, and Mexico City without losing home games.  Other incredible venues where there is no pro football team could be Lincoln, NE, San Antonio, Iowa City, IA, Louisville, KY, Birmingham, AL, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Ann Arbor, MI, Columbus, OH, South Bend, IN, basically any 80,000 seat plus venue.  The Falcons and Titans could probably fill up Legion Field in Birmingham.  The Bears and Colts could definitely fill up Notre Dame’s stadium.

6. This 17th game would be an inter-conference game.

7. Make the playoffs a full 16 teams with the 4 division winners hosting the next 4 teams with winning records.  This could still be played out in four games like the wildcard and two division winners must play in both conferences.

Look for updated NFL Ratings Tuesday morning, including a plethora of what if playoff situations.

Our PiRate Bowl Coverage will publish Saturday, December 14, after the Army-Navy game has concluded.

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl & Playoff Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Marshall]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Wyoming
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Navy	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Tulane	Southern Miss.
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	[Eastern Michigan]
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	[Air Force]	Washington St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Texas
Cotton	At-large	At-large	[Penn St.]	Memphis
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Florida Atlantic	[Liberty]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	California	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	Tennessee	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Texas A&M
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Washington
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Florida Int’l.]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Alabama	Michigan
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Florida St.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	Nevada
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Kent St.]	Utah St.
Lending Tree	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Louisiana
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Oklahoma
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	LSU
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Spread

Saturday	December 14
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army	6.2	8.3	8.2

Game played in Philadelphia

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	141.7	140.8	142.5	141.7
2	Clemson	140.1	138.5	141.5	140.0
3	L S U	137.6	135.7	138.0	137.1
4	Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9
5	Georgia	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
6	Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3
7	Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0
8	Utah	124.3	123.4	124.9	124.2
9	Oklahoma	123.1	122.7	122.9	122.9
10	Wisconsin	122.7	122.6	123.1	122.8
11	Oregon	122.0	121.9	122.8	122.2
12	Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2
13	Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1
14	Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6
15	Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8
16	Baylor	117.5	117.5	116.7	117.2
17	Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8
18	Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7
19	Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3
20	Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9
21	Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3
22	Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8
23	Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6
24	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
25	Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2
26	Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7
27	Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.1	110.5
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3
30	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9
31	Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
32	Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4
33	Appalachian St.	109.4	108.9	108.6	109.0
34	Virginia	107.3	107.2	107.6	107.4
35	Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6
36	T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4
37	Boise St.	108.1	108.5	108.4	108.3
38	South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0
39	North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9
40	Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8
41	Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6
42	Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1
43	Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1
44	Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.1	105.8
45	Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5
46	SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0
47	Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5
49	Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4
50	Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9
51	California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8
52	Louisiana	103.1	103.4	102.8	103.1
53	Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9
54	Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7
55	West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5
56	Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3
57	Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2
58	BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0
59	Florida Atlantic	101.3	101.5	102.6	101.8
60	Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8
61	Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6
62	Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5
63	Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0
64	Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0
65	Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9
66	Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7
67	Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3
68	Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2
69	Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0
70	Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0
71	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
72	U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4
73	Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3
74	San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1
75	Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1
76	Hawaii	96.8	98.1	96.0	97.0
77	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9
78	Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8
79	Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9
80	Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6
81	Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4
82	Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9
83	Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1
84	Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0
85	Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9
86	Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4
87	Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7
88	Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7
89	Central Michigan	92.1	92.7	93.1	92.6
90	Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1
91	North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
93	Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	90.5	89.6	90.8	90.3
95	Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1
96	Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0
97	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0
98	Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8
99	Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3
100	Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3
101	Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3
102	Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2
103	Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1
104	South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0
105	Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9
106	San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6
107	Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3
108	Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0
109	Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7
110	Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4
111	U A B	86.3	88.0	86.9	87.1
112	Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9
114	North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2
115	Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4
116	U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2
117	Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0
118	Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8
119	East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8
120	New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0
121	Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3
122	South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8
123	Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8
124	New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0
125	Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4
126	Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0
127	U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6
128	Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8
129	Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9
Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Pac-12	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.1
10	Conf. USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.1
PiRate Guess at Top 6
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Oklahoma
5	Georgia
6	Utah
Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Boise St.
3	Appalachian St.
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Miami (O)

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6	6-2	9-3
Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.1	105.8	7-1	10-3
Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7	5-3	8-4
South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0	2-6	4-8
East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8	1-7	4-8
Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.1	110.5	7-1	12-1
SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0	6-2	10-2
Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5	7-1	9-2
Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9	3-5	6-6
Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6	2-6	4-8
Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9	2-6	4-8
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	140.1	138.5	141.5	140.0	8-0	13-0
Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8	4-4	6-6
Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9	4-4	8-4
Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8	4-4	6-6
Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0	5-3	7-5
Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2	2-6	5-7
North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8	1-7	4-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7	5-3	8-4
North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9	4-4	6-6
Virginia	107.3	107.2	107.6	107.4	6-2	9-4
Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5	4-4	6-6
Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2	4-4	7-5
Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8	2-6	3-9
ACC Averages	104.6	104.0	104.7	104.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.1	122.7	122.9	122.9	8-1	12-1
Baylor	117.5	117.5	116.7	117.2	8-1	11-2
Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9	5-4	7-5
Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3	5-4	8-4
Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2	5-4	7-5
Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3	5-4	8-4
T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4	3-6	5-7
Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5	3-6	5-7
Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	110.0	109.3	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	141.7	140.8	142.5	141.7	9-0	13-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3	6-3	9-3
Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1	7-2	10-2
Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4	5-4	8-4
Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1	4-5	6-6
Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7	1-8	3-9
Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4	0-9	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	122.7	122.6	123.1	122.8	7-2	10-3
Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8	7-2	10-2
Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1	3-6	5-7
Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9	3-6	4-8
Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7	1-8	3-9
Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3	4-5	6-6
Big Ten Averages	111.4	110.8	110.9	111.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	101.3	101.5	102.6	101.8	7-1	10-3
Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9	6-2	8-4
Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1	4-4	6-6
Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3	5-3	7-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9	6-2	9-3
Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4	5-3	7-5
U A B	86.3	88.0	86.9	87.1	6-2	9-4
North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2	3-5	4-8
Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8	3-5	3-9
Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8	3-5	4-8
U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6	0-8	1-11
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6	x	10-2
BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0	x	7-5
Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0	x	5-7
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0	x	7-5
New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0	x	2-10
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9	x	1-11
Indep. Averages	89.8	90.5	89.4	89.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4	5-3	7-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.5	89.6	90.8	90.3	6-2	8-5
Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3	5-3	6-6
Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8	2-6	3-9
Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3	0-8	0-12
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1	5-3	7-5
Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9	6-2	8-5
Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0	4-4	5-7
Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0	3-5	6-6
Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4	4-4	5-7
Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0	3-5	6-6
MAC Averages	87.0	86.7	87.2	87.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	108.1	108.5	108.4	108.3	8-0	12-1
Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3	4-4	7-5
Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8	6-2	7-5
Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1	5-3	9-3
Hawaii	96.8	98.1	96.0	97.0	5-3	9-5
Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7	2-6	4-8
Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1	4-4	7-5
San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6	2-6	5-7
U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2	2-6	4-8
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.6	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	122.0	121.9	122.8	122.2	8-1	11-2
Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3	4-5	7-5
Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7	3-6	6-6
California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6	4-5	5-7
Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0	3-6	4-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	124.3	123.4	124.9	124.2	8-1	11-2
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5	7-2	8-4
Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8	4-5	7-5
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6	3-6	5-7
U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4	4-5	4-8
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9	2-7	4-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	107.2	107.7	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	7-1	11-2
Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0	6-2	10-2
Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8	3-5	7-5
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4	5-3	7-5
Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6	3-5	6-6
South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0	3-5	4-8
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	137.6	135.7	138.0	137.1	8-0	13-0
Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9	6-2	10-2
Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2	5-3	9-3
Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7	4-4	7-5
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9	3-5	6-6
Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6	2-6	4-8
Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.1	112.2	113.8	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	109.4	108.9	108.6	109.0	7-1	12-1
Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0	5-3	7-5
Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3	4-4	7-5
Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2	3-5	5-7
Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	103.1	103.4	102.8	103.1	7-1	10-3
Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0	5-3	7-5
Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9	4-4	5-7
Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3	2-6	3-9
South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8	1-7	2-10
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 5-9, 2019

Davey19 Continues To Profit

We named our experimental technical football selection system “Davey19” in honor of the great former TCU quarterback Davey O’Brien.  O’Brien was a 5 foot 7 and 150ish pound player for the Horned Frogs in the late 1930’s, and even 70 years ago, his size was very small for a major college quarterback.

The PiRate Ratings personnel like to think of ourselves as the midgets of the sports’ rating sites.  O’Brien followed the legendary Sammy Baugh as TCU’s quarterback, and he led the purple and white to the national championship.  Since the PiRate Ratings won multiple national championship awards last season, and because our captain was once a five foot seven inch wishbone quarterback at the junior high level (but our Captain was a little north of 150 pounds), Davey O’Brien is sort of like our “patron captain” to coin a phrase.

We had only a minor hypothesis when we decided to try this system out this season.  It might be usable for the NFL and for Totals, but basically it was back-tested against college margins.

After a slow start, the system began to win in November, even going 7-0 two weeks ago.  This past week, it produced its fourth consecutive profitable week with a 4-3 record and a return on investment of 10%.  An ROI of 10% isn’t Earth-shattering, but then how many equity investments return 10% interest in 24 hours?

For the season, the Davey19 experimental program is in the black, but not by enough to call this experiment a success–unless it keeps winning down the stretch.

With just 10 games on this week’s slate, we were fortunate for the system to come up with three plays.  The third play qualified by just one-half point.

What about the regular PiRate Ratings Picks?  Did you have to ask?  We aren’t sure what’s been worse this year–our regular selections, including the money line parlays that in past years buttered our bread or having to deal with 100 new residents and their automobiles moving to our city every day and making an 6.5-mile commute a one hour nightmare?

Since everybody we know is complaining about this, let one of the PiRates make the announcement to everybody not already here: Stop moving to Nashville!  We’re full.  It isn’t the Elysian Fields you believe it is going to be.  There are many other places where your money will go much farther.  Leaving California for Nashville may temporarily solve some of your issues, but it won’t be long until Nashville is a mini-LA, and the Dodgers aren’t moving here any time soon.  You can’t get Dodger Dogs here.  You cannot drive to Vegas here before lunchtime.  If you think UCLA and USC athletics are in a deep malaise, don’t even think about becoming a Vanderbilt athletic fan unless all you care about is college baseball and those God-awful aluminum bats, or women’s bowling.  You cannot get in your car at the opening pitch of a Dodgers game and drive to San Manuel Casino before the 7th inning as Charlie Steiner tells you on KLAC.

Now that we got that off our shoulder, and we have diverted your attention from the lousy results with our picks, here is what we are going with this week.  We do have a 4-leg teaser parlay using the Thursday Night Football game between Dallas and Chicago.  We hope our beliefs that this will be a rather dull, typical game where the outcome will be within 10 points either way and the scoring will be basically normal.

Have fun reading the picks below, but remember as we always warn you, these are free picks and worth exactly what you pay for them.  Please do not get your car repossessed because you lost your payment betting on games that we recommend just for fun.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

College

10-point	Teaser	10-12
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Florida Atlantic	UAB	17.5	UAB
Memphis	Cincinnati	19.5	Cincinnati
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	6	Ohio St.
Money Line	Parlay
4 Teams	@ +222
Winner	Loser
Central Mich.	Miami (O)
Appy St.	Louisiana
Florida Atlantic	UAB
Ohio St.	Wisconsin
NFL
Spcl 13-point	Teaser		Thursday Night Spcl
4 leg 13-points	@ 10-13
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Dallas	Chicago	16	Chicago
Chicago	Dallas	10	Dallas
Team	Team	Total
Chicago	Dallas	30.5	Over
Chicago	Dallas	56.5	Under
13-point	Teaser
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Washington	Green Bay	0.5	Green Bay
Denver	Houston	3.5	Houston
Detroit	Minnesota	0.5	Minnesota
San Francisco	New Orleans	10.5	New Orleans

 

Davey 19 Selections

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oklahoma	Baylor	9	Baylor
Memphis	Cincinnati	9.5	Cincinnati
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	6	Appy St.

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 5-9, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Chicago	Dallas	2.6	-0.6	-0.2
Atlanta	Carolina	3.3	3.5	2.8
Buffalo	Baltimore	-6.3	-5.3	-6.2
Cleveland	Cincinnati	8.0	8.4	8.1
Green Bay	Washington	13.6	13.0	13.7
Houston	Denver	8.1	8.0	8.1
Minnesota	Detroit	11.5	11.5	11.6
New Orleans	San Francisco	1.4	-1.4	-1.7
N. Y. Jets	Miami	8.5	8.8	8.1
Tampa Bay	Indianapolis	2.6	3.6	4.4
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	-4.3	-3.9	-3.5
Arizona	Pittsburgh	-3.6	-3.7	-3.6
New England	Kansas City	9.0	9.1	8.9
Oakland	Tennessee	-4.5	-5.2	-4.7
LA Rams	Seattle	4.2	3.0	3.1
Philadelphia	N. Y. Giants	12.1	10.4	9.7

 

Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Chicago	Dallas	38
Atlanta	Carolina	51
Buffalo	Baltimore	42
Cleveland	Cincinnati	45.5
Green Bay	Washington	42.5
Houston	Denver	41
Minnesota	Detroit	47.5
New Orleans	San Francisco	49
N. Y. Jets	Miami	48.5
Tampa Bay	Indianapolis	51.5
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	39.5
Arizona	Pittsburgh	44
New England	Kansas City	51.5
Oakland	Tennessee	44
LA Rams	Seattle	50.5
Philadelphia	N. Y. Giants	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.9	109.6	109.1	109.2	20.5	10-2
Buffalo	101.8	102.9	102.8	102.5	17.5	9-3
N. Y. Jets	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1	21	4-8
Miami	89.5	89.7	89.5	89.6	27.5	3-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.1	111.1	112.0	111.4	24.5	10-2
Pittsburgh	99.5	100.0	100.4	99.9	20	7-5
Cleveland	99.2	99.5	99.5	99.4	23	5-7
Cincinnati	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	22.5	1-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.1	103.4	103.2	103.3	23	8-4
Tennessee	100.9	101.4	101.3	101.2	19.5	7-5
Indianapolis	99.3	100.1	99.6	99.7	22.5	6-6
Jacksonville	93.6	93.8	93.6	93.7	18.5	4-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	102.9	103.5	103.2	103.2	31	8-4
LA Chargers	101.0	100.7	100.1	100.6	21	4-8
Denver	98.1	98.4	98.1	98.2	18	4-8
Oakland	93.4	93.3	93.6	93.4	24.5	6-6
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.3	103.9	103.5	103.6	21	6-6
Philadelphia	102.0	100.4	100.0	100.8	24.5	5-7
N.Y. Giants	91.9	92.0	92.2	92.0	25	2-10
Washington	91.4	92.2	91.8	91.8	18	3-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.4	105.0	105.2	105.6	23	8-4
Green Bay	102.0	102.2	102.5	102.2	24.5	9-3
Chicago	103.0	100.3	100.3	101.2	17	6-6
Detroit	97.4	96.0	96.1	96.5	24.5	3-8-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	105.5	105.8	106.2	25	10-2
Tampa Bay	98.9	100.6	101.0	100.2	29	5-7
Atlanta	97.5	97.5	97.1	97.3	25.5	3-9
Carolina	96.6	96.5	96.8	96.6	25.5	5-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	109.0	109.9	110.5	109.8	24	10-2
LA Rams	105.5	104.3	104.7	104.8	25.5	7-5
Seattle	104.3	104.3	104.6	104.4	25	10-2
Arizona	93.0	93.2	93.8	93.3	24	3-8-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Houston
4	Kansas City
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Dallas

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Houston over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

Houston over Buffalo

Seattle over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Houston

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 1, 2019

This Week’s Conference Championships Spreads

All times given are Eastern Standard

Friday, December 6

Conference	Pac-12
North Division	Oregon 10-2
South Division	Utah 11-1
Site:	Santa Clara
Time:	8:00 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Utah by 7.1
Mean:	Utah by 6.3
Bias:	Utah by 6.8
Predicted Score:	Utah 27
	Oregon 20

 

 

Saturday, December 7

 

Conference	Sun Belt
East Division	Appalachian St. 11-1
West Division	Louisiana 10-2
Site:	Boone, NC (Appy St.)
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ESPN
PiRate:	Appy St. by 9.2
Mean:	Appy St. by 8.4
Bias:	Appy St. by 9.1
Predicted Score:	Appalachian St. 35
	Louisiana 26

 

 

Conference	Mid-American
East Division	Miami (O) 7-5
West Division	Central Michigan 8-4
Site:	Detroit
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ESPN 2
PiRate:	CMU by 2.0
Mean:	CMU by 3.9
Bias:	CMU by 3.1
Predicted Score:	Central Mich. 31
	Miami (O) 28

 

 

Conference	Big 12
1st Place	Oklahoma 11-1
2nd Place	Baylor 11-1
Site:	Arlington, TX
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Oklahoma by 5.2
Mean:	Oklahoma by 4.6
Bias:	Oklahoma by 5.4
Predicted Score:	Oklahoma 38
	Baylor 33

 

 

Conference	Conference USA
East Division	Florida Atlantic 9-3
West Division	UAB 9-3
Site:	Boca Raton, FL (FAU)
Time:	1:30 PM
TV:	CBSSN
PiRate:	FAU by 11.9
Mean:	FAU by 10.0
Bias:	FAU by 12.2
Predicted Score:	Florida Atlantic 28
	UAB 17

 

 

Conference	American Athletic
East Division	Cincinnati 10-2
West Division	Memphis 11-1
Site:	Memphis
Time:	3:30 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Memphis by 6.9
Mean:	Memphis by 7.8
Bias:	Memphis by 8.1
Predicted Score:	Memphis 35
	Cincinnati 27

 

 

Conference	Mountain West
Mountain Division	Boise St. 11-1
West Division	Hawaii 9-4
Site:	Boise, ID
Time:	4:00 PM
TV:	ESPN
PiRate:	Boise St. by 16.9
Mean:	Boise St. by 15.7
Bias:	Boise St. by 18.0
Predicted Score:	Boise St. 48
	Hawaii 31

 

 

Conference	Southeastern
East Division	Georgia 11-1
West Division	LSU 12-0
Site:	Atlanta
Time:	4:00 PM
TV:	CBS
PiRate:	LSU by 5.6
Mean:	LSU by 5.3
Bias:	LSU by 5.5
Predicted Score:	LSU 35
	Georgia 30

 

 

Conference	Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division	Clemson 12-0
Coastal Division	Virginia 9-3
Site:	Charlotte
Time:	7:30 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Clemson by 30.2
Mean:	Clemson by 28.3
Bias:	Clemson by 30.9
Predicted Score:	Clemson 40
	Virginia 10

 

 

Conference	Big Ten
East Division	Ohio St. 12-0
West Division	Wisconsin 10-2
Site:	Indianapolis
Time:	8:00 PM
TV:	Fox
PiRate:	Ohio St. by 19.4
Mean:	Ohio St. by 18.8
Bias:	Ohio St. by 20.5
Predicted Score:	Ohio St. 44
	Wisconsin 24

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	141.9	141.1	143.0	142.0
2	Clemson	138.8	137.0	140.0	138.6
3	L S U	135.5	133.5	135.7	134.9
4	Georgia	128.4	126.7	128.7	127.9
5	Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9
6	Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
7	Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3
8	Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0
9	Oklahoma	122.9	122.4	122.5	122.6
10	Wisconsin	122.5	122.3	122.6	122.5
11	Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2
12	Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1
13	Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6
14	Oregon	119.5	119.4	120.2	119.7
15	Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8
16	Baylor	117.7	117.8	117.1	117.5
17	Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8
18	Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7
19	Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3
20	Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9
21	Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3
22	Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8
23	Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6
24	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
25	Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2
26	Memphis	110.2	110.6	111.4	110.7
27	Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3
30	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9
31	Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
32	Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4
33	Appalachian St.	109.6	109.1	109.0	109.2
34	Virginia	108.6	108.7	109.1	108.8
35	Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6
36	T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4
37	Boise St.	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0
38	South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0
39	North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9
40	Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8
41	Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6
42	Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1
43	Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1
44	Cincinnati	105.8	105.3	105.8	105.6
45	Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5
46	SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0
47	Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5
49	Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4
50	Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9
51	California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8
52	Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9
53	Louisiana	102.9	103.2	102.4	102.8
54	Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7
55	West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5
56	Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3
57	Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2
58	BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0
59	Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8
60	Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6
61	Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5
62	Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0
63	Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0
64	Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9
65	Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7
66	Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3
67	Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2
68	Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0
69	Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0
70	Florida Atlantic	98.5	98.5	99.6	98.9
71	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
72	U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4
73	Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3
74	San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1
75	Hawaii	97.0	98.4	96.4	97.3
76	Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1
77	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9
78	Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8
79	Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9
80	Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6
81	Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4
82	Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9
83	Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1
84	Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0
85	Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9
86	Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4
87	Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9
88	Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7
89	Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7
90	Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1
91	North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
93	Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0
94	Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1
95	Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0
96	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0
97	U A B	89.1	91.0	89.9	90.0
98	Miami (Ohio)	90.3	89.2	90.4	90.0
99	Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8
100	Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3
101	Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3
102	Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3
103	Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2
104	Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1
105	South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0
106	Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9
107	San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6
108	Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3
109	Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0
110	Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7
111	Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4
112	Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9
114	North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2
115	Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4
116	U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2
117	Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0
118	Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8
119	East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8
120	New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0
121	Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3
122	South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8
123	Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8
124	New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0
125	Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4
126	Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0
127	U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6
128	Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8
129	Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6	6-2	9-3
Cincinnati	105.8	105.3	105.8	105.6	7-1	10-2
Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7	5-3	8-4
South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0	2-6	4-8
East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8	1-7	4-8
Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	110.2	110.6	111.4	110.7	7-1	11-1
SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0	6-2	10-2
Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5	7-1	9-2
Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9	3-5	6-6
Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6	2-6	4-8
Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9	2-6	4-8
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	137.0	140.0	138.6	8-0	12-0
Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8	4-4	6-6
Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9	4-4	8-4
Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8	4-4	6-6
Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0	5-3	7-5
Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2	2-6	5-7
North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8	1-7	4-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7	5-3	8-4
Virginia	108.6	108.7	109.1	108.8	6-2	9-3
North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9	4-4	6-6
Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5	4-4	6-6
Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2	4-4	7-5
Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8	2-6	3-9
ACC Averages	104.6	104.0	104.7	104.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.9	122.4	122.5	122.6	8-1	11-1
Baylor	117.7	117.8	117.1	117.5	8-1	11-1
Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9	5-4	7-5
Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3	5-4	8-4
Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2	5-4	7-5
Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3	5-4	8-4
T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4	3-6	5-7
Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5	3-6	5-7
Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	110.0	109.3	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	141.9	141.1	143.0	142.0	9-0	12-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3	6-3	9-3
Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1	7-2	10-2
Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4	5-4	8-4
Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1	4-5	6-6
Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7	1-8	3-9
Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4	0-9	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	122.5	122.3	122.6	122.5	7-2	10-2
Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8	7-2	10-2
Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1	3-6	5-7
Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9	3-6	4-8
Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7	1-8	3-9
Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3	4-5	6-6
Big Ten Averages	111.4	110.8	110.9	111.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.5	98.5	99.6	98.9	7-1	9-3
Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9	6-2	8-4
Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1	4-4	6-6
Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3	5-3	7-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9	6-2	9-3
Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4	5-3	7-5
U A B	89.1	91.0	89.9	90.0	6-2	9-3
North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2	3-5	4-8
Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8	3-5	3-9
Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8	3-5	4-8
U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6	0-8	1-11
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6	x	10-2
BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0	x	7-5
Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0	x	5-7
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0	x	7-5
New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0	x	2-10
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9	x	1-11
Indep. Averages	89.8	90.5	89.4	89.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4	5-3	7-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.3	89.2	90.4	90.0	6-2	7-5
Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3	5-3	6-6
Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8	2-6	3-9
Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3	0-8	0-12
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1	5-3	7-5
Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9	6-2	8-4
Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0	4-4	5-7
Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0	3-5	6-6
Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4	4-4	5-7
Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0	3-5	6-6
MAC Averages	87.0	86.7	87.2	87.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0	8-0	11-1
Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3	4-4	7-5
Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8	6-2	7-5
Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1	5-3	9-3
Hawaii	97.0	98.4	96.4	97.3	5-3	9-4
Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7	2-6	4-8
Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1	4-4	7-5
San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6	2-6	5-7
U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2	2-6	4-8
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.6	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	119.5	119.4	120.2	119.7	8-1	10-2
Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3	4-5	7-5
Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7	3-6	6-6
California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6	4-5	5-7
Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0	3-6	4-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7	8-1	11-1
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5	7-2	8-4
Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8	4-5	7-5
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6	3-6	5-7
U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4	4-5	4-8
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9	2-7	4-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	107.2	107.7	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.4	126.7	128.7	127.9	7-1	11-1
Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0	6-2	10-2
Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8	3-5	7-5
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4	5-3	7-5
Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6	3-5	6-6
South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0	3-5	4-8
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	135.5	133.5	135.7	134.9	8-0	12-0
Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9	6-2	10-2
Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2	5-3	9-3
Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7	4-4	7-5
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9	3-5	6-6
Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6	2-6	4-8
Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.1	112.2	113.8	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	109.6	109.1	109.0	109.2	7-1	11-1
Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0	5-3	7-5
Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3	4-4	7-5
Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2	3-5	5-7
Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.9	103.2	102.4	102.8	7-1	10-2
Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0	5-3	7-5
Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9	4-4	5-7
Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3	2-6	3-9
South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8	1-7	2-10
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.1

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.4
2	Big Ten	111.0
3	Big 12	109.6
4	Pac-12	107.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.4
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.2
8	Sun Belt	91.1
9	Independents	89.9
10	Conference USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.0

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Oklahoma

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Boise St.
3	Appalachian St.
4	Cincinnati
5	Louisiana

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

One is the loneliest team that you’ll ever know–79 Bowl Eligible Teams For 78 Spots

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Louisiana Tech]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Air Force
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Miami (O)
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Western Kentucky	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	North Carolina	[Florida Int’l.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Florida St.	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Michigan
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	[Liberty]	[Nevada]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Memphis
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Southern Miss.	[Kent St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	Kentucky	Indiana
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia	Alabama
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Marshall]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	Mississippi St.
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Louisville
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Ohio]	Wyoming
Lending Tree	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Utah
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BREAKING NEWS

Dateline Columbia, MO–11/26/19 1:25 PM EST

The NCAA has denied Missouri’s appeal for infractions and upheld the Tigers’ Bowl Ban.

This means that the SEC is going to be 4 or 5 teams shy in their bowl contractual agreements.  This is bad news for the Belk, Liberty, Music City, and possibly Texas Bowls.

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 28-December 2, 2019

We are putting out this feature a couple days early this week for the obvious reason that in the United States, Thursday is Thanksgiving Day (for those two to three thousand of you reading this from South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia).

We received a request to show you what our results have been in picking games this year.  At first, we felt like this is something that should not be published for two reasons.  First, this is a downright terrible year for our selections, and I am sure that if I took the hours of time needed to calculate pretend money exchange, and then I pretended that each game considered of a $100 base for the wager, that the result would be quite negative.

On the other hand, I have done a couple weeks of calculating, and actually, the results are positive, especially on the Davey19 experimental selections.  And, mostly for this reason, I didn’t want to publish the results, because it would contribute to some guy or gal out there all of a sudden reading this with the false idea that we are smart here on the PiRate ship.  I am an old softie.  I don’t want to imagine somebody reading this post, thinking that this is the best advice since Benjamin Graham wrote The Intelligent Investor, and then proceed to lose the money that would pay for Christmas, their house note, and their car note.

Please, please, please, do not wager real money from information you read on this site.  Does it not speak volumes that nobody here in PiRate Land has ever bet $1 on anything published here?  Actually, the only “betting” any of us have ever done has been made on the premise that contrarian value investing of blue chip stocks will always post positive returns in a 10-year period.  If you want to take any advice from her today, it’s that as early as possible in your lifetime, try to invest regularly in your future and do so by reading as much as you can about what has worked for small individual investors for 130 years.

That said, please take the following with a grain of wet salt.  Last week’s Davey19 selections went 7-0.  Wagering the $100 in imaginary dollars on every game, your return on $700 invested would have been $1,400 with a return on investment of 100%.  

We looked back at the week before, and the Davey19 picks went 4-2-1 for a return on investment of 28.6% (700 invested and 900 returned).

As for the regular PiRate Picks, since each game has a different potential return, we are not going to spend all the time to figure out each week’s return, especially since we don’t want you thinking that we have discovered the elixir that some of the Smarts in Nevada and in the Caribbean drank from.

Last week, if you count each wager as a $100 wager, we issued 5 selections for $500.  The return on the wins at hot odds would have been $637 for a profit of $137 or a return on investment of 27.4%.

Without going back a couple months, I know for sure that some of our weekly picks would have cost you several C-notes.  So, once again, these picks cost you nothing, and you should consider the value to be worth your expense.

Here are our picks for this week.

PiRate Picks

7-point	Teasers	14-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa	Nebraska	12.5	Nebraska
Missouri	Arkansas	5	Missouri
Boise St.	Colorado St.	6.5	Boise St.
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Appalachian St.	Troy	6	Appy St.
Illinois	Northwestern	2.5	Illinois
Purdue	Indiana	0.5	Indiana
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	Pk	Marshall
Charlotte	Old Dominion	1.5	Charlotte
West. Kentucky	Middle Tenn.	1.5	West. Kentucky
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
UTEP	Rice	0.5	Rice
Florida Atlantic	Southern Miss.	1.5	Fla. Atlantic
North Carolina	NC St.	1	North Carolina
10-point	Teasers	10-12
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Texas	Texas Tech	Pk	Texas
Ball St.	Miami (O)	13	Miami (O)
Toledo	Central Michigan	0.5	Central Mich.
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Memphis	Cincinnati	1	Memphis
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	3	Arkansas St.
Notre Dame	Stanford	6	Notre Dame
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Texas	UAB	10	UAB
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	17.5	Georgia St.
UCLA	California	12.5	California
13-point	Teasers	10-13
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	4.5	Western Mich.
Miss. State	Ole Miss	16	Ole Miss
Virginia	Virginia Tech	10.5	Va. Tech
TCU	West Virginia	Pk	TCU
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Kentucky	Louisville	16	Louisville
Michigan	Ohio St.	4	Ohio St.
Liberty	N. Mexico St.	0.5	Liberty
Wisconsin	Minnesota	15.5	Minnesota
Money Line	Parlays
#1  3-Teams	@+227
Winner	Loser
UAB	North Texas
Western Ky.	Middle Tenn.
Texas	Texas Tech
#2 3-Teams	@+207
Winner	Loser
Virginia Tech	Virginia
Rice	UTEP
Utah St.	New Mexico
#3 4-Teams	@+211
Winner	Loser
North Carolina	NC St.
Washington	Washington St.
Illinois	Northwestern
Temple	Connecticut
NFL 7-point	Teaser	14-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Jacksonville	Tampa Bay	8.5	Tampa Bay
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	9	Pittsburgh
Kansas City	Oakland	3	Kansas City
NFL 10-point	Teaser	10-12
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Chicago	7.5	Chicago
Buffalo	Dallas	3.5	Dallas
Carolina	Washington	17	Washington
NFL 13-point	Teaser	10-13
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Indianapolis	10.5	Indianapolis
Cincinnati	N.Y. Jets	9.5	N.Y. Jets
N.Y. Giants	Green Bay	7	Green Bay
Denver	LA Chargers	10.5	LA Chargers

 

 

Davey19

Experimental and Mechanical Picks

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	3	Ole Miss
Virginia Tech	Virginia	2.5	Virginia Tech
Wake Forest	Syracuse	3.5	Wake Forest
Air Force	Wyoming	10.5	Wyoming
Rice	UTEP	6.5	Rice
UAB	North Texas	Pk	UAB
UCLA	California	2.5	California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 13: November 28-December 2, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Chicago	-2.8	-1.2	-0.9
Dallas	Buffalo	8.4	7.9	8.0
Atlanta	New Orleans	-7.4	-5.1	-5.8
Cincinnati	N.Y. Jets	-2.5	-3.5	-2.4
Indianapolis	Tennessee	4.8	5.2	5.1
Miami	Philadelphia	-14.2	-12.4	-12.3
N.Y. Giants	Green Bay	-5.2	-5.0	-5.0
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	2.6	2.5	2.8
Carolina	Washington	10.9	10.1	11.0
Jacksonville	Tampa Bay	0.7	-0.9	-1.2
Baltimore	San Francisco	6.3	5.4	6.1
Arizona	LA Rams	-5.5	-3.7	-3.3
Denver	LA Chargers	-0.1	0.3	0.6
Kansas City	Oakland	8.1	8.6	7.8
Houston	New England	-4.1	-4.7	-4.6
Seattle	Minnesota	-0.1	1.3	1.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Detroit	Chicago	41.5
Dallas	Buffalo	38.5
Atlanta	New Orleans	50.5
Cincinnati	N.Y. Jets	44.5
Indianapolis	Tennessee	41
Miami	Philadelphia	50
N.Y. Giants	Green Bay	50.5
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	44
Carolina	Washington	43.5
Jacksonville	Tampa Bay	48.5
Baltimore	San Francisco	49.5
Arizona	LA Rams	49.5
Denver	LA Chargers	39
Kansas City	Oakland	55.5
Houston	New England	43.5
Seattle	Minnesota	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.4	110.2	109.8	109.8	20.5	10-1
Buffalo	100.0	101.1	100.8	100.6	17.5	8-3
N. Y. Jets	96.5	97.4	96.5	96.8	21.5	4-7
Miami	87.4	87.6	87.3	87.4	26.5	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.3	111.3	112.4	111.7	25	9-2
Cleveland	99.7	100.1	100.2	100.0	23.5	5-6
Pittsburgh	99.3	99.7	100.0	99.6	20.5	6-5
Cincinnati	91.6	91.3	91.6	91.5	23	0-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.3	102.5	102.2	102.4	23	7-4
Indianapolis	101.0	101.9	101.5	101.5	22	6-5
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	99.4	99.4	19	6-5
Jacksonville	95.5	95.7	95.6	95.6	19	4-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	100.7	101.2	100.8	100.9	31	7-4
LA Chargers	101.1	100.9	100.3	100.7	21	4-7
Denver	98.0	98.2	97.9	98.0	18	3-8
Oakland	95.6	95.6	96.0	95.7	24.5	6-5
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.4	106.0	105.8	105.7	21	6-5
Philadelphia	104.1	102.5	102.2	102.9	23.5	5-6
N.Y. Giants	93.1	93.3	93.6	93.3	25.5	2-9
Washington	89.7	90.4	89.9	90.0	18	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.9	105.5	105.8	106.1	23	8-3
Chicago	102.9	100.0	99.9	100.9	17	5-6
Green Bay	100.8	100.9	101.1	100.9	25	8-3
Detroit	97.5	96.3	96.5	96.8	24.5	3-7-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	105.3	105.6	106.1	25	9-2
Tampa Bay	97.3	99.0	99.3	98.5	29.5	4-7
Carolina	98.0	98.0	98.4	98.1	25.5	5-6
Atlanta	97.5	97.7	97.3	97.5	25.5	3-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	108.5	109.4	109.8	109.2	24.5	10-1
Seattle	103.8	103.8	104.0	103.9	25	9-2
LA Rams	103.5	102.1	102.4	102.7	25.5	6-5
Arizona	95.0	95.4	96.1	95.5	24	3-7-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Houston
4	Kansas City
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Minnesota over Green Bay

Seattle over Dallas

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

Houston over New England

San Francisco over Minnesota

Seattle over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

Super Bowl 54

Baltimore over San Francisco