PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 13

There are a bevy of interesting games with something on the line this week. Playoff games are on the line, bowl eligibility is on the line, and a few coaching jobs are on the line as Rivalry Week returns.
If you are a fan of a 5-6 team this week, you better hope that they win, because there is 0.01% chance or 1 in 10,000 that a bowl will have to take a team that is worse than 6-6. As of today, 71 teams are now bowl eligible. Three games this week will pit teams with identical 5-6 records, so three more are guaranteed to become bowl eligible, bringing the total to 74. There needs to be four more teams that will need one more win, and there are an additional 16 teams that have a chance to do so. The chances that 13 of these 16 teams lose their final game are less than the chances of the San Diego Padres facing the Chicago White Sox in the 2019 World Series.
Below, we take another look at each conference so you can determine which games you want to watch this week, or if you’d rather go shopping on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. You really should spend a few bucks with a locally owned small business this Saturday. We recommend our favorite jewelry artist, Marjorie Miller of Marjorie Miller Designs right here in the Music City at Beautiful Gifts for Her

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	-6.5	-6.0	-6.2
Miami (O)	Ball St.	17.9	17.6	20.4

 

Thursday	November 22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Colorado St.	14.7	14.6	15.4
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	-17.4	-16.1	-18.1

 

Friday	November 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Akron	19.3	19.6	20.6
Cincinnati	East Carolina	17.8	19.3	18.3
Kent St.	Eastern Michigan	-14.7	-15.2	-15.4
Bowling Green	Buffalo	-13.3	-14.5	-14.3
Iowa	Nebraska	17.0	16.3	17.2
Kansas	Texas	-13.8	-13.8	-14.7
Missouri	Arkansas	24.8	25.6	26.8
South Alabama	Coastal Carolina	-0.3	-1.0	-0.6
Toledo	Central Michigan	19.6	18.8	19.5
South Florida	Central Florida	-21.0	-20.0	-21.5
Oregon St.	Oregon	-20.9	-22.8	-22.4
Memphis	Houston	3.1	3.9	3.7
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-0.6	-2.1	-1.0
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-1.0	-0.7	-1.4
Washington St.	Washington	-1.6	-0.4	-2.1

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	6.0	5.0	5.5
Connecticut	Temple	-30.1	-29.9	-31.6
Louisville	Kentucky	-21.4	-20.6	-22.4
Clemson	South Carolina	28.8	27.6	30.1
Michigan St.	Rutgers	29.0	28.0	29.5
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-12.2	-12.3	-12.7
Florida Int’l.	Marshall	-2.1	-1.1	-2.5
Boston College	Syracuse	7.6	6.8	8.0
Ohio St.	Michigan	-3.5	-4.2	-4.3
Northwestern	Illinois	24.9	23.8	26.2
Georgia	Georgia Tech	15.5	14.1	17.1
Duke	Wake Forest	11.7	11.5	12.8
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.3	13.3	14.3
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	-11.6	-11.6	-11.2
Louisiana Tech	Western Kentucky	12.4	11.6	12.4
Rice	Old Dominion	-13.1	-13.6	-14.0
UTEP	Southern Miss.	-13.3	-13.4	-14.0
Liberty	New Mexico St.	11.0	8.6	11.4
Boise St.	Utah St.	3.9	2.2	3.1
Utah	BYU	17.8	15.8	17.6
Appalachian St.	Troy	9.5	10.1	9.6
New Mexico	Wyoming	-8.5	-7.9	-9.0
Middle Tennessee	UAB	-2.1	-2.6	-1.8
California	Colorado	12.9	10.6	12.8
UCLA	Stanford	-11.9	-10.1	-13.9
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	4.3	3.6	4.8
TCU	Oklahoma St.	-2.2	-2.1	-3.7
Florida St.	Florida	-4.9	-4.5	-6.4
Penn St.	Maryland	16.1	14.9	16.3
Baylor	Texas Tech	-7.0	-7.3	-6.2
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	36.9	35.3	37.9
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	11.8	11.5	12.3
Texas A&M	LSU	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7
Indiana	Purdue	-6.6	-6.0	-6.4
Tulane	Navy	6.9	5.5	6.9
UL-Monroe	Louisiana	5.3	3.7	4.6
Tulsa	SMU	-2.9	-2.9	-2.3
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	20.3	19.1	19.9
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	-13.8	-12.8	-15.0
UTSA	North Texas	-22.5	-20.9	-22.5
USC	Notre Dame	-17.3	-16.7	-17.8
Alabama	Auburn	25.4	24.8	25.5
UNLV	Nevada	-13.3	-12.5	-13.4
San Diego St.	Hawaii	20.3	18.8	21.5
Arizona	Arizona St.	-7.2	-7.3	-6.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9
4	Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3
5	Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9
6	Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3
7	Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9
8	Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8
9	Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9
10	Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6
11	L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9
12	Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2
13	Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2
14	West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8
15	Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7
16	Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6
17	Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4
18	Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3
19	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2
20	Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1
21	Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0
22	Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8
23	Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7
24	Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6
25	Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3
26	Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2
27	Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1
28	N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8
29	Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4
30	S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4
31	Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3
32	Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3
33	Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1
34	Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9
35	Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8
36	Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6
37	Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0
38	Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9
39	Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8
40	Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5
41	Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3
42	Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2
43	Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9
44	California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6
45	Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1
46	U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6
47	Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1
48	T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6
49	Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2
50	Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8
51	Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7
52	Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6
53	Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6
54	Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6
55	Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5
56	Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4
57	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
58	Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4
59	Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9
60	Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5
61	Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4
62	Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3
63	BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1
64	Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1
65	Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0
66	Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8
67	N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9
68	Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8
69	U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6
70	Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6
71	U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3
72	Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1
73	Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5
74	Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1
75	Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0
76	N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7
77	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
78	Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2
79	San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0
80	Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9
81	Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8
82	Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4
83	Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2
84	Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1
85	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
86	Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4
87	Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6
88	SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4
89	Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4
90	Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5
91	Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3
92	South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0
94	Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9
95	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7
96	Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3
97	Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2
98	Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0
99	Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9
100	Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9
101	Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2
102	Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0
103	UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0
104	Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9
105	East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5
106	Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2
107	New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5
108	Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0
109	Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9
110	Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3
111	W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7
112	Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5
113	U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3
116	Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8
117	Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7
118	Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5
119	Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0
121	San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0
122	Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0
123	Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8
124	Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1
125	South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9
126	U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8
127	N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6
128	Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6
129	U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6
130	Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2	7-0	10-0
Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2	6-1	7-4
Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5	5-2	9-2
South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9	3-4	7-4
East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5	1-6	3-7
Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6	0-7	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5	4-3	7-4
Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9	5-2	8-3
SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4	4-3	5-6
Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4	4-3	5-6
Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2	1-6	2-9
Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0	2-5	3-8
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	8-0	11-0
Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0	4-3	7-4
N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8	4-3	7-3
Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5	5-2	8-3
Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1	3-5	5-6
Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3	2-5	5-6
Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0	0-8	2-9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6	3-4	6-5
Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3	5-3	7-4
Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3	3-4	7-4
Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6	6-1	7-4
Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1	4-3	7-4
Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4	3-4	4-6
N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9	1-6	2-8
ACC Averages	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8	7-1	10-1
West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8	6-2	8-2
Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3	6-2	8-3
Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1	5-3	6-4
Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8	3-5	6-5
Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9	3-5	5-6
T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6	3-5	5-6
Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8	3-5	5-6
Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1	3-5	5-6
Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2	1-7	3-8
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9	8-0	10-1
Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9	7-1	10-1
Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4	5-3	8-3
Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7	4-4	6-5
Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6	3-5	5-6
Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0	2-6	5-6
Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9	0-8	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2	4-4	7-4
Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3	7-1	7-4
Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1	5-3	7-4
Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3	4-4	5-6
Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4	3-5	4-7
Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6	2-6	5-6
Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9	2-6	4-7
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	3-4	5-6
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	5-2	7-3
Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6	6-1	7-4
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0	6-1	8-3
Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0	2-5	4-7
W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7	1-6	2-9
Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3	3-4	4-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3	7-0	9-2
N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7	4-3	8-3
Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3	5-2	7-4
Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2	3-4	5-5
U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8	2-5	3-8
U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6	1-6	1-10
Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4	0-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9	x	11-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1	x	6-5
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-8
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7	5-2	7-4
Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1	6-1	9-2
Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8	5-2	5-6
Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9	2-5	4-6
Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5	2-5	3-8
Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1	4-3	6-5
Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0	6-1	7-4
Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1	4-3	6-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3	4-3	6-5
Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3	0-7	1-10
Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7	3-4	4-7
MAC Averages	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9	6-1	9-2
Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8	7-0	10-1
Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2	2-5	4-7
Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4	3-4	5-6
New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5	1-6	3-8
Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3	2-5	3-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2	6-1	9-2
San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0	4-3	7-4
Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4	5-2	7-4
U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9	1-6	3-8
Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8	4-3	7-5
San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0	1-6	1-10
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9	6-2	8-3
Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6	7-1	10-1
Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1	4-3	6-4
Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2	4-4	7-4
California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6	3-4	6-4
Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2	1-7	2-9
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7	6-3	8-3
Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9	4-4	6-5
U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6	4-5	5-6
Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4	4-4	5-6
U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6	3-5	3-8
Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5	2-6	5-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3	7-1	10-1
Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6	3-4	7-4
Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4	5-3	8-3
S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4	4-4	6-4
Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0	5-3	8-3
Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6	2-5	5-6
Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8	2-5	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0	7-0	11-0
Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3	3-4	7-4
L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9	5-2	9-2
Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2	3-4	7-4
Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8	4-3	7-4
Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6	1-6	5-6
Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9	0-7	2-9
SEC Averages	114.4	113.2	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8	6-1	8-2
Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5	7-0	9-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7	5-2	8-3
Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0	2-5	5-6
Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9	4-3	7-4
UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0	4-3	6-5
Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9	4-3	6-5
Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1	1-6	3-8
South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9	1-6	2-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.2	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
5	PAC12	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	IND	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
8	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
9	MAC	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

Group of 5 Teams Still in Running for NY6 Bowl

1. Central Florida
2. Utah St.
3. Boise St.
4. Fresno St.
5. Army

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	San Diego St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Arizona]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	[Eastern Michigan]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Syracuse	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Texas Tech
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Miami (Fla.)
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Central Florida
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Standard

American Athletic
UCF vs. USF: Central Florida easily disposed of Cincinnati, and now they must end the regular season with a swooning South Florida team that looks all out of kilter. USF was 7-0 and has now lost four consecutive games. The Bulls play one good half and one bad half in nearly every game, and if this repeats itself, UCF should win by more than 20 points. However, we suspect USF will play its best game of the year, so this game could be closer than expected, especially if USF’s better half is the first half.

Time: Friday, 4:00 PM
TV: ESPN

Memphis vs. Houston: The West Division race is still up for grabs, and it will go to the winner of the Houston-Memphis game at the Liberty Bowl. Houston may have a little bit of dissension after some issues on the sidelines against Tulane last week. Memphis is playing its best ball of the season, and the Tigers enjoy a modicum of home field advantage. This game could have some head coaching implications. Major Applewhite is not a huge favorite in Houston, and a loss plus a bowl loss could put his job in jeopardy. On the other side, Memphis coach Mike Norvell could be on the short list of multiple Power 5 Conference jobs.
Time: Friday, 12:00 PM
TV: ABC

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Tulane vs. Navy, 12 Noon on ESPNU
SMU vs. Tulsa, 3:30 PM on CBSSN

Atlantic Coast
Clemson will play Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game, but there are other reasons to watch the Tigers this week. CU plays rival South Carolina, and this should give us all a chance to see Trevor Lawrence face a tough SEC defense. Somewhere down the road, Clemson might play for a National Championship against an even better SEC defense. In limited action earlier this year Lawrence was 5 of 9 for 99 yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M. South Carolina became bowl eligible against Chattanooga last night, and the Gamecocks added a late replacement game for their hurricane cancellation. They now play Akron next week, so there is a chance to get to 8-4 if they can pull off the big upset in this game. At 8-4, they could move up over Missouri and Auburn in the bowl pecking order.  Clemson vs. South Carolina

Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: ESPN

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida State vs. Florida, 12 PM on ABC
Wake Forest vs. Duke, 12:30 PM on ACCn

Big 12
This conference has multiple games of importance in both the Playoff and bowl picture. Let’s start by explaining how the Conference Championship Game looks.

Oklahoma leads Texas and West Virginia by one game in the standings, but the Sooners have not clinched a spot in the Championship Game. Oklahoma plays at West Virginia this week. Texas visits Kansas.

If Oklahoma wins, they are the #1 seed, and West Virginia falls to 6-3 in the league. If Texas then beats Kansas, it will be a rematch of the Red River Rivalry in Arlington, Texas, as the Longhorns will be 7-2.

If West Virginia beats Oklahoma, and Texas beats Kansas, then the Sooners are eliminated, while West Virginia and Texas play in the title game.

If Texas loses to Kansas in a monumental upset, then no matter what happens in the OU-WVU game, the two will play again the next week for the Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma needs to beat West Virginia and Texas and hope for Northwestern to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game to have any chance at making the Playoffs. There is a minor chance that they could get in if Notre Dame lays an egg at the Coliseum against USC this week, but the way the Trojans are playing, don’t bet on it.

There are three more important games in the Big 12 this week.  Texas Tech plays Baylor at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The winner earns a bowl bid, while the loser plays again next September. If the loser is Texas Tech, there’s a good chance that somebody other than Kliff KIngsbury will be coaching the Red Raiders in 2019. His job is not totally secure unless TTU wins this game and the bowl game.
Oklahoma State is bowl eligible thanks to the upset over West Virginia. The Cowboys close the season against TCU, and the 5-6 Horned Frogs need a win to become bowl eligible. TCU had several near misses, but their defense looked strong in stopping Baylor Saturday.
Kansas State might be playing its final game under the direction of legendary coach Bill Snyder. At 79, there’s a chance that Snyder will retire for good after this season. Kansas State is 5-6 and faces a tough finishing game against Iowa State in Ames. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell might also be leading his Cyclones on the field for the last time. He could easily be gobbled up by a bigger school looking to hire a new coach. Should Urban Meyer step down at Ohio State, a lot of insiders believe that Campbell would be on a very short list in Columbus.

Big 12 Key Game Schedule
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Time: Friday, 8 PM
TV; ESPN

Texas vs. Kansas
Time: Friday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Time: Saturday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.
Time: Saturday, 8 PM
TV: Fox

Kansas St. vs. Iowa St.
Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: FS1

 

Big Ten
Michigan vs. Ohio State: It’s all about the big rivalry game at the Giant Horseshoe. Michigan and Ohio State will meet for the annual grudge match, and the winner wins the East and stays in contention for the Playoffs. The loser most likely would get the consolation prize of a Rose Bowl game. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, which means they are zero for their last eight. In that span, they lose their most important game prior to this one, when they fell by a field goal in 2006. Expect a hard-fought effort on both sides, and the winner just may come out of this game at somewhat less than 100%, giving Northwestern a bit more chance to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Fox

Indiana and Purdue face off in Bloomington in a bowl qualification/elimination game. These may be the two best 5-6 teams in the nation, and the winner will be a tough 6-6 bowl team. Purdue may be playing with some distractions, as it appears as if Coach Jeff Brohm is halfway out the door and headed south to his Alma Mater in Louisville.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe must fall in the favor of Minnesota against Wisconsin if the Golden Gophers are to nab the Big Ten’s ninth bowl bid. UM is 5-6 and extremely inconsistent, sometimes in the same half of games. Wisconsin is coming in for a landing with a stalled engine, so this game should be close and relatively low scoring.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

Maryland has not won a game since D.J. Durkin was officially re-instated and then fired. The Terrapins were 5-3 and looking like a bowl team before the news hit. They have dropped three games in a row and must win at Penn State to become bowl eligible. Penn State is winning on fumes in November. The Nittany Lions’ offense has disappeared. Still, PSU looks like a prohibitive favorite in this game, and they actually still hold a remote chance of earning the final New Year’s Six Bowl bid. A win would almost guarantee them no worse than the Citrus or Outback Bowl games on New Year’s Day. Maryland vs. Penn St.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

Conference USA
CUSA lost any chance of sending a team to the Peach Bowl when UAB coughed up the ball too many times and lost at Texas A&M after coming out even in total yardage. The Blazers have clinched a berth in the CUSA Championship Game, and their contest at Middle Tennessee this week will still be important, because the East Division race is still to be decided. If Middle beats UAB, and Marshall beats Florida International, then Middle and UAB would play again next week in the CUSA Championship Game. If FIU beats Marshall and UAB beats Middle Tennessee, then FIU wins the East Division race.

Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
Time: 3PM, Saturday
TV: Online only at ESPN3

Florida International vs. Marshall
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Stadium and Facebook

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte
Time: Saturday, 6PM
TV: Stadium

Southern Mississippi vs. UTEP
Time: 3 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Independents
Notre Dame can become the first team to secure a spot in the Playoffs by topping USC in Los Angeles. USC will be playing for bowl eligibility as well as Coach Clay Helton’s job security. There might be a couple of NFL head coaches, including former coach Pete Carroll interested in taking the job if it becomes available, but we tend to believe Dino Babers might be the answer if this job opens up. As for the Irish, they are peaking at the right time. A double-digit win should leave Notre Dame in the 3-slot with a trip to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson the most likely scenario.  Notre Dame vs. USC

Time: 8 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

 

Mid-American
The MAC Championship Game will pit Buffalo and Northern Illinois unless the unthinkable happens, and the Bulls lose to a weak Bowling Green team. Should Buffalo lose, then Miami of Ohio has a chance to do the unthinkable for the second time in three years if they beat Ball St. Miami began 2016 at 0-6 and then won six games in a row to come from last to first and make a bowl game. This year the Red Hawks were 1-4 and then 3-6 before winning back-to-back games over favored Ohio and Northern Illinois teams. Ohio can only win the division if Buffalo and Miami both lose.
In the West, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan all have six wins and are bowl eligible, but there is little chance that all three will be invited to bowls. At least one of these three will miss out, so, it is important to get that seventh win this week.

Key MAC Games Schedule

Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPNU

Miami (O) vs. Ball St.
Time: 7PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPN+

Ohio U vs. Akron
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: CBSSN
Note: Akron is technically still in the running for bowl eligibility at 4-6, but the Zips must beat Ohio and then South Carolina, so we have eliminated them from the bowl team possibles.

Eastern Michigan vs. Kent St.
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online

Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Time: 7 PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPNU

Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online
Mountain West
Fresno State clinched a spot in the conference championship game and will face the winner of the Boise State-Utah State game. Utah State is playing for more than just a spot in the MWC Championship Game. They are the team on-deck should Central Florida fall to USF or in the AAC Championship Game. The Aggies could sneak into the Fiesta Bowl with wins over Boise State and Fresno State and a loss by UCF.

Boise State-Utah St.
Time: 10:15 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN

Wyoming is 5-6 and needs a win over New Mexico to become bowl eligible. Even at 6-6, the Cowboys have only a slim chance to earn a bowl bid.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: MWCn
Pac-12
Both division races will be decided this week. In the North Division race, it comes down to the Apple Cup game between Washington and Washington St. Washington State has not won the Apple Cup since Mike Leach’s first year in the Palouse. UW has won the last five years by better than three touchdowns per game. An impressive win over Washington combined with a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game could bring the Playoffs into view for WSU if Northwestern won the Big Ten Championship Game and Oklahoma did not win the Big 12 Championship.  Washington State vs. Washington

Time: 8:30 PM, Friday
TV: Fox

The South Division comes down to Utah or Arizona State. Utah has already finished their conference slate, and their game against BYU is strictly for bragging rights in the Beehive State. The Arizona State-Arizona game is the important one. If the Sun Devils win, then Coach Herm Edwards will force all those pundits to eat crow when they called his hiring a farce. ASU would win the South with a win over their rival. Arizona has a lot to play for as well. The Wildcats are 5-6 and must win to become bowl eligible, where they most likely would be shipped east as an at-large team for a bowl needing to fill a spot.

Arizona-Arizona State
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: FS1

Colorado was 5-0, and now the Buffaloes are 5-6. Coach Mike MacIntyre is on a hot seat in snowy Boulder, and CU must venture to smoky Berkeley to face a hot Cal team that got an unexpected week off last week. CU better hope that Cal is looking forward to the Stanford makeup game the following week and overlooks the Buffs, because CU hasn’t got much left in the tank at this point.  Colorado vs. California

Time: 7PM, Saturday
TV: Pac-12
Southeastern
Alabama and Georgia will meet in the next chapter of greatness in the SEC Championship Game next week, but both teams must not overlook their arch-rivals this week, both of whom come into this game in peak performance.

Alabama should have little problem with Auburn, but the Tide showed some vulnerabilities that Auburn, and then Georgia, and possibly Clemson can attack. By saying “vulnerabilities,” we refer to something similar to the 1927 New York Yankees being a little weak at third base with Jumping Joe Dugan. Auburn last beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 2010, but that team has Cam Newton at quarterback and still only won by a point.

Alabama vs. Auburn
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: CBS

Georgia cannot afford a loss to Georgia Tech, as the Bulldogs might not make the playoffs even if they subsequently beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Tech has made a big turnaround since starting the season 1-3. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall has a chance to reach 1,000 rushing yards with a good game here and another in the bowl game.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: SECn

Vanderbilt and Tennessee face off in Nashville with a bowl game going to the winner and the end of the line coming for the loser. Tennessee needs quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to return from a head and neck injury suffered Saturday against Missouri. Guarantano is worth more than a touchdown to the Vols compared to backup Keller Chryst. The Vols also have concerns at wideout where Marquez Callaway also was injured against Missouri. Vanderbilt has some injury concerns at quarterback as well, but it is their number two guy that will probably miss this game. Should anything happen to Kyle Shurmur, then the Commodores would be forced to put a true freshman with zero game experience into the most important game of their season. Vandy coach Derek Mason could receive some feelers from other job openings if he can guide the Commodores to their second bowl in three years. He was courted by California last year, and a possible opening or two in the Pac-12 could attract him.  Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Time: 4 PM, Saturday
TV: SECn

Sun Belt
Half of the league still holds SBC Championship Game aspirations. In the East, Troy plays Appalachian State, and the winner takes the division title and hosts the inaugural SBC Championship Game. The Mountaineers host this game and have not lost a conference game at home in more than three years. These two teams did not play each other last year when they tied for first, and the last two times they played, the games came down to the final minute.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

The West Division is currently log-jammed with three teams tied for first at 4-3. Louisiana holds the trump card in this three-way race. If the Ragin’ Cajuns defeat rival UL-Monroe, they will win the division title and play in the league title game. If UL-Monroe beats Louisiana, then Arkansas State would get in if the Red Wolves beat Texas State. If UL-Monroe wins and Arkansas State loses, then the Warhawks would win the division title outright.
Louisiana vs. UL-Monroe
Time: 3 PM ,Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Time: 4PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN3

 

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PiRate Ratings Selections for November 14-19, 2018

Call it a rebound week.  After a few weeks of mediocrity, our five Land Sharps went a combined 15-6 last week, and four of the five experts enjoyed highly profitable weeks.

Buckeye Michelle and Stewed Meat were both undefeated in their picks at 3-0 apiece.  Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2, and Dean615 went 2-1.  Friday Dog 13, stuck with a lot of favorites and like so many in “No Fave November,” he finished 2-3.  The week left three of our five Sharps with double digit percentage returns on investment.  The best news is that with two weeks remaining in the regular season, all five of our experts have winning records.  Friends, that is an incredible feat.  To go an entire college football season with a winning record is more rare a feat than beating the S&P 500 returns for a decade.  Few ever do it, so when five out of five here have winning records, it is incredible.

Now, let’s hope this isn’t the kiss of death.  Here are our Land Sharp picks for this week.  All the Land Sharps were on the same page this week; each of the five selected five games each.

1.) Dean 615:  Season 26-18-2 59.1%  Return on Investment 13.5%

Baylor -2 vs. TCU

Nebraska +2.5 vs. Michigan St.

West Virginia -4.5 vs. Oklahoma St.

Purdue -4.5 vs. Wisconsin

Ole Miss +3 vs. Vanderbilt

 

2 tie) Cal Gal Tiffany: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

Tennessee +7 vs. Missouri

UCLA +3.5 vs. USC

Virginia +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +5.5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

California +2.5 vs. Stanford

 

2 tie) Stewed Meat: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

North Texas -3.5 vs. Florida Atlantic

Colgate +11 vs. Army

UL-Monroe +8 vs. Arkansas St.

Wyoming -2 vs. Air Force

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle:  Season 26-20-1  56.5%  Return on Investment  8.5%

Buffalo +2.5 vs. Ohio

Miami (O) +7.5 vs. Northern Illinois

SMU +9 vs. Memphis

Indiana +28.5 vs. Michigan

Iowa St. +3 vs. Texas

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 29-24-1  54.7%  Return on Investment  4.8%

Washington St. -9.5 vs. Arizona

Cincinnati +7.5 vs. Central Florida

Nevada -14.5 vs. San Jose St.

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

Arkansas +21.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

The PiRate Ratings’ Goofy Parlays

We sure hope you heed our weekly warning to never wager real money on our just for fun selections.  We are not professionals at this, and even though one of the Land Sharps is a professional, Stewed never publishes the actual selections played for real, because Stewed is selfish about keeping the line where Stewed wants it to be.  She knows that if all of you reading this played the same selections, the line might move by a half-point.  This was said tongue-in-cheek, but in actuality, we know that a certain few of you reading this in the Caribbean, and in places like Reno, Las Vegas, and Tahoe, that you do look at our actual computer ratings before you make your weekly investment.

Just remember that we have never placed $1 on any of these goofy picks we publish.  It’s just for fun.  We are math nerds and have no relationship with any of the MIT and Cal Tech math geniuses that create advanced algorithmic equations to beat the spread.  Of course, all of those geniuses are looking up at the PiRate Ratings in both college and pro against the spread this season, as we are currently in first place at the Prediction Tracker against the College and the NFL Spread.  A wise man once said that a broken clock is accurate twice a day, and this season is one of those times for us.

Now, here are our goofy plays this week.  Have a good laugh but laugh all the way to the bank when you DON’T wager on these games.

COLLEGE
10-point Teaser	3-team Parlays	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Tulane	Pk	Houston
Memphis	SMU	19	SMU
Boise St.	New Mexico	9.5	Boise St.
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	6	Kentucky
TCU	Baylor	8	Baylor
Wake Forest	Pittsburgh	3	Pittsburgh
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Ohio St.	Maryland	4	Ohio St.
Michigan St.	Nebraska	8	Nebraska
Minnesota	Northwestern	7.5	Northwestern
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Temple	USF	4	Temple
Utah	Colorado	17	Colorado
Notre Dame	Syracuse	20.5	Syracuse
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arkansas St.	UL-Monroe	18	UL-Monroe
Missouri	Tennessee	16	Tennessee
USC	UCLA	13.5	UCLA
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	16	Kansas St.
Florida St.	Boston College	8.5	Boston College
Georgia Tech	Virginia	16.5	Virginia
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Michigan	Indiana	38.5	Indiana
Air Force	Wyoming	7.5	Wyoming
Nevada	San Jose St.	4.5	Nevada
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	13	Ole Miss
Stanford	California	12.5	California
Western Kentucky	UTEP	17	UTEP

 

Special	Parlay	using	5 Dimes
20-point Teaser	15 games	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Memphis	SMU	29	SMU
Alabama	The Citadel	32	Alabama
Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	36	Middle Tenn.
TCU	Baylor	18	Baylor
Michigan St.	Nebraska	22.5	Nebraska
Northwestern	Minnesota	22	Minnesota
Florida	Idaho	20	Florida
Marshall	UTSA	47	UTSA
Florida St.	Boston College	18.5	Boston College
Georgia Tech	Virginia	27	Virginia
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia Tech	25.5	Virginia Tech
Air Force	Wyoming	17.5	Wyoming
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	22.5	Ole Miss
Western Kentucky	UTEP	27	UTEP
Arizona	Washington St.	10.5	Washington St.

 

NFL
10-Point Teasers	3 Team Parlays	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Green Bay	Seattle	7.5	Seattle
Tennessee	Indianapolis	8	Indianapolis
Atlanta	Dallas	13.5	Dallas
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tampa Bay	N.Y. Giants	9	N.Y. Giants
Houston	Washington	13	Washington
Jacksonville	Pittsburgh	4	Pittsburgh
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	L.A. Chargers	3	L.A. Chargers
Philadelphia	New Orleans	1	New Orleans
Minnesota	Chicago	7.5	Chicago
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Seattle	Green Bay	59	Under
Atlanta	Dallas	38	Over
N.Y. Giants	Tampa Bay	42	Over

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 15-19, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Seattle	Green Bay	5.3	4.7	6.1	46.5
Detroit	Carolina	-1.3	-1.1	-1.8	51
Atlanta	Dallas	3.7	3.5	4.1	45
Baltimore	Cincinnati	9.3	9.3	9.2	45
Chicago	Minnesota	4.2	3.7	5.0	45
New Orleans	Philadelphia	13.0	13.1	14.0	50
Indianapolis	Tennessee	1.6	0.3	2.0	45.5
Washington	Houston	0.2	-0.6	0.2	45.5
N.Y. Giants	Tampa Bay	3.4	3.6	3.2	47
L.A. Chargers	Denver	6.7	7.8	7.7	44
Arizona	Oakland	9.0	8.3	9.5	38.5
Jacksonville	Pittsburgh	-5.1	-5.8	-5.6	43.5
L.A. Rams *	Kansas City	-0.6	-0.2	-1.2	56.5
L. A. Rams	Kansas City	2.4	2.8	1.8	56.5
* This is a neutral site game to be played in Mexico City This game has now been moved back to LA due to unplayable field conditions in Mexico City.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	104.5	104.9	104.6	104.7	23	7-3
N. Y. Jets	94.6	94.0	94.3	94.3	23	3-7
Miami	94.5	94.1	94.2	94.2	22	5-5
Buffalo	92.3	92.2	91.9	92.1	17	3-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	107.5	107.7	107.6	107.6	24	6-2-1
Baltimore	103.0	103.3	102.9	103.1	21	4-5
Cincinnati	96.7	97.0	96.7	96.8	24	5-4
Cleveland	95.8	96.1	96.5	96.1	24	3-6-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	101.0	101.1	101.2	101.1	24	6-3
Tennessee	100.2	100.5	100.1	100.3	19	5-4
Jacksonville	99.4	99.0	99.1	99.1	19.5	3-6
Indianapolis	98.9	97.8	99.0	98.6	26.5	4-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.7	108.0	108.1	107.9	28.5	9-1
LA Chargers	103.3	104.1	103.7	103.7	23	7-2
Denver	99.2	98.8	98.5	98.8	21	3-6
Oakland	89.8	89.8	89.3	89.6	20	1-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	101.4	101.5	101.0	101.3	22	4-5
Dallas	99.9	99.8	99.3	99.7	19.5	4-5
Washington	98.7	97.9	98.9	98.5	21.5	6-3
N.Y. Giants	95.5	95.5	95.6	95.5	20.5	2-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	104.2	104.1	105.0	104.4	23.5	6-3
Minnesota	102.6	102.8	102.5	102.6	21.5	5-3-1
Green Bay	100.2	100.8	99.9	100.3	24.5	4-4-1
Detroit	98.9	98.8	98.6	98.8	26	3-6
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	111.4	111.6	112.0	111.7	28	8-1
Carolina	102.7	102.3	102.9	102.6	25	6-3
Atlanta	101.1	100.9	100.9	100.9	25.5	4-5
Tampa Bay	94.6	94.4	94.9	94.6	26.5	3-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.1	107.7	107.0	107.3	28	9-1
Seattle	102.5	102.5	103.0	102.7	22	4-5
Arizona	96.3	95.7	96.2	96.1	18.5	2-7
San Francisco	95.0	95.2	94.9	95.0	22.5	2-8

 

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

As we enter week 11, we add a look at current playoff standings if the season ended today.

Current Playoff Standings

AFC
1	Kansas City
2	Pittsburgh
3	New England
4	Houston
5	L.A. Chargers
6	Cincinnati

 

NFC
1	L.A. Rams
2	New Orleans
3	Chicago
4	Washington
5	Carolina
6	Minnesota

 

Our Projections 

AFC Seeding
1	L.A. Chargers
2	Pittsburgh
3	New England
4	Houston
5	Kansas City
6	Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	L.A. Rams
3	Chicago
4	Washington
5	Carolina
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

New England over Tennessee

Houston over Kansas City

Chicago over Minnesota

Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round

L.A. Chargers over Houston

Pittsburgh over New England

New Orleans over Carolina

L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh over L.A. Chargers

New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53

New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Can the New York Giants Pull Off The Nearly Impossible?

Prior to week 10, members of the New York Giants claimed to the media that they could win their final eight games and finish 9-7 and make the playoffs.  With a 1-7 record at the time of this statement, the chances of winning eight consecutive games and moving from last place to first place was so infinitesimal that the odds of winning the lottery were not much worse.

Yet, if the Giants were to win just one game in the first half of the schedule and then go undefeated in the second half of the schedule to win the division and make the playoffs, it would have precedent.  Yes, this has been done one time before in the post-merger era.

In fact, it was the first year of the merger between the NFL and former AFL.  In the AFC Central, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers had moved from the former NFL Century Division along with Houston and Cincinnati.  Entering the season, Cleveland was the heavy favorite to breeze to the division title and the second pick to the Baltimore Colts (Which had moved from the NFL Coastal Division to the AFC East Division, as it was ridiculous for the Colts and Rams to be in the same division).  The Browns had advanced to the NFL Championship Game in 1969 and returned the bulk of their roster.

Pittsburgh had been the worst team in the NFL in 1969, going 1-13.  Still, the Steelers were expected to contend with a mediocre Houston Oilers team for second place in the division, but nobody expected either team to contend with Cleveland or for the newly created single Wildcard spot for the AFC.

And, then there was Cincinnati.  The Bengals had been in existence for just two seasons.  They were a dismal 3-11 in 1968, but in 1969, they had one fantastic rookie quarterback.  Greg Cook, a local hero who had been a star quarterback at Chillicothe High School and the University of Cincinnati, had been the Bengals’ first round pick in the  1969 draft.  Cook immediately won the starting quarterback job in training camp.  He was a gunslinger type passer, typical of the type of quarterback that made the AFL more exciting than the conservative NFL.  The Bengals, led by legendary coach Paul Brown, rarely threw short passes.  Their strategy was to stretch the field vertically to open up running lanes for their two starting running backs, halfback Paul Robinson fullback Jess Phillips.

Cook’s debut was similar to Pat Mahomes this year with the Chiefs.  In his very first game, the Bengals beat Miami thanks to two long touchdown passes from Cook to receiver Eric Crabtree.  Nobody thought too much of the game, since the Dolphins were also an expansion team that had yet to build up a decent roster.  In week two, Cincinnati hosted a San Diego Chargers team that was a contender for the AFL West title.  The Chargers were big favorites, and Cook once again hooked up for two long touchdown passes, one to Bob Trumpy and one to future head coach Bruce Coslet.

At 2-0, the Bengals picked up a little notice, but week three was going to obviously be their week for comeuppance.  The powerful Kansas City Chiefs with the best defense in AFL history were coming to the Queen City.  Cook would have no chance against the best defensive line in all of football, the line that would lead KC to the Super Bowl title in a few months.  Because of the great start, NBC made this their nationally televised AFL Game in the early time slot, and yours truly was perched in front of the big Zenith TV watching this game in all hopes that the new phenom could become another Joe Namath and Daryle Lamonica for the much “funner” AFL.

Cook once again opened this game with brilliant passing plays to set up his running backs.  After spotting the Chiefs a couple of field goals, Cook led the Bengals on a scoring drive that ended with a scoring pass to Crabtree.  The Bengals led 7-6, but their history was about to be changed forever.  In the second quarter, Cook dropped back to pass and faced a Chiefs’ blitz by the outside linebackers.  Chiefs’ outside linebacker Jim Lynch knocked Cook to the ground, forcing all his weight on Cook’s throwing shoulder.  Cook would later say he heard his shoulder pop, and he exited the game with intense pain.

The Bengals hung on to win behind back up QB and future head coach Sam Wyche.  They were an incredible 3-0 and led the AFL West over the Chiefs and Raiders.  However, their gunslinger was out of bullets for the next three weeks.  Had doctors been able to diagnose a torn rotator cuff, they would have held Cook out for the rest of the year, but 1969 was a different time.  Cook was expected to come back and play in four weeks, maybe even less if he felt strong enough to throw.

He came back two weeks later, because the Bengals could not move the ball without him in the lineup.  They failed at San Diego and fell to 3-1.  Cook wasn’t ready to face the second best defense in the league in the New York Jets.  He could not get any strength behind his passes, and the Jets’ pass rush forced him to throw quickly in fear of further hurting his shoulder.  He didn’t last a half.  He had to leave the game in the second quarter, and the Bengals lost to the Jets by 14.  It was a mistake for him to try to play, and his shoulder hurt worse than it had after the initial injury.

Cook was held out of play the next two weeks, and the Bengals looked more like the expansion team they were.  A weak Denver team pummeled them, and then the Chiefs punished them in a revenge match at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City.  The loss dropped the Bengals to 3-4 at the halfway mark.  Cincinnati would have to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs, and they had yet to play the powerhouse team of the league, the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland had yet to lose a game in 1969.  This Raiders’ team looked as strong if not stronger than the two previous teams that went 13-1 and 12-2.  At 6-0-1, Oakland led Kansas City by a half-game.  Once again, this was the nationally televised AFL game on NBC that week, and yours truly sat in front of the ole Zenith ready to route the silver and black to an easy victory.

Cook made his last hurrah in this game.  Brown showed his genius in this game.  He used his wideouts as decoys, sending them deep, while placing his tight ends to run intermediate routes over the middle.  Cook hit Trumpy over and over across the middle, setting up third receiver Chip Myers as a surprise.  The strategy worked, and thanks to the Bengals’ defense picking off a trio of Lamonica passes in the first half, Cinti led 24-0 at the half on way to an easy 31-17 victory.  It would be Oakland’s only loss of the season, and it would be the Bengals’ last win of the season.

Cook limped through the rest of the year unable to put any zip on the ball, and the Bengals finished 4-9-1 and in last place in the AFL West.  Prospects were still high for the Bengals, because after an off-season of rest Cook would be ready to return to form in 1970.

However, things did not go according to plan.  Cook never again regained his arm strength as his rotator cuff injury did not heal itself on its own.  He would never again start a game for the Bengals or anybody else.  He appeared briefly in one game four years later, but it was obvious that he would never again be an NFL quarterback.

The Bengals entered 1970 picked to finish in last place, because Sam Wyche was not the quarterback to lead a team to victory in the new AFC.  He didn’t have the arm accuracy of Cook, and he lacked the finesse to hit shorter passes with much success.  The Bengals would have to try to win by pounding the ball with Phillips, Robinson, and new addition Essex Johnson.

In week one, the Bengals pulled off their miracle for the season, or at least that’s what most sports fans believed.  The three running backs combined for 200 rushing yards, and Wyche even contributed with his legs, scoring a rushing touchdown.  Cincinnati upset Oakland once again.

Over the next six weeks, the Bengals performed exactly like they were expected to perform–miserably.  In their first interconference game in their history, Detroit ran over them like a fleet of automobiles leaving the plant.  The passing stats were plain awful–64 yards!  Losses piled up against Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh.

At the halfway point of the season, Cleveland led the AFC Central with a disappointing 4-3 record.  As expected, Pittsburgh and Houston fought for second place.  The Steelers were 3-4, while the Oilers were 2-4-1.  The Bengals were 1-6, and it looked like a similar second half would give Cincinnati the chance to draft at the top of the 1970 Draft, where Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning were there for the taking.

The Bengals players refused to give up.  A smart future NFL legend was on the Brown’s staff, and he came to Brown with an idea.  Insert backup Virgil Carter at quarterback for Wyche.  Carter had flamed out in Chicago, where he was best when he turned and handed the ball to Gayle Sayers.  Carter had an accurate arm and rather quick ability to read defenses, but his arm strength limited the types of passes he could throw.  Anything longer than 20 yards downfield looked like a beach ball floating to defensive backs.

This intelligent assistant was Bill Walsh.  His idea was what we know today as the West Coast Offense, but it should have been called the Ohio River offense.  Walsh went to Brown with ideas to spread the field horizontally and use all 53 plus yards from sideline to sideline, which would also create holes for the backs to run through, and better yet, more defensive players would be out of position to make tackles if they were spread wide.

Carter had actually become the starting quarterback a few weeks earlier, but it wasn’t until the Bengals went to War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo that the new strategy was implemented.  At 3-4, the Bills were going nowhere, but they had a rookie running back that had to be stopped in O.J. Simpson.  The Bengals figured the best way to stop Simpson was to keep the ball out of Simpson’s hands.  They tried their new ball-control short passing strategy.  It had only mediocre success, but the Bengals’ defense and special teams scored three touchdowns and set up another, as Cincinnati rolled to a 43-14 victory to improve to 2-6.  Cleveland lost to Oakland to fall into a first place tie with Pittsburgh at 4-4, while Houston fell to 2-5-1.  The Bengals were still in last place, but there was a glimmer of hope just two games behind the co-leaders.

In week 9, Cleveland came to Riverfront Stadium in the most important game in the Bengals’ early franchise history.  With Pittsburgh having to play the Chiefs, there was a chance that Cincinnati could finish the day just one game behind the two co-leaders.

Of course, this meant that Cincinnati had to win against their bitter enemy, the team named for their own coach.  It was a cold and windy day, and long passes were not easy to attempt.  Cleveland QB Mike Phipps saw some early success, but he could do nothing else once the winds picked up.  The Bengals shut down Leroy Kelly, and after trailing 10-0, they slowly came back with their short passing game.  The biggest threat this day came off the passing game, but it did not necessarily come from the passes themselves.  Carter noticed that the Browns’ linebackers were dropping wide into the flat zones, as Cleveland tried to take away the short hook and out patterns.  It left a gaping hole in the middle of the field, and when the Browns rushed from the outside-in, it looked to Carter like he could have driven his car in the opening.  Carter actually topped 100 yards rushing for the only time in his career, and Cincinnati upset the Browns.

Pittsburgh lost to the Chiefs, while Houston lost again.  Now, the Browns and Steelers were tied at 4-5, while Cincnnati was 3-6 and Houston was 2-6-1.  The Bengals could see their opportunity.  They were all of a sudden the only hot team in the division.  They truly believed that they would keep winning.  Better yet, the schedule got easier from this point on.

Pittsburgh came to Riverfront the next week, and the Bengals were now a short favorite to win the game.  While Cleveland put Houston out of their misery to square their record at 5-5, Cincinnati blew the Steelers off the astroturf.  Terry Bradshaw lasted long enough to toss three interceptions before getting yanked in favor of Terry Hanratty, but by then, the outcome had been decided.  Pinpoint passing by Carter, solid running by Robinson, and a solid effort by the defense led the Bengals to another blowout win.  Now, after 10 weeks, Cleveland could hear the roar of the Bengals.  The Browns still led the division at 5-5, but Cincinnati was 4-6, while Pittsburgh was also 4-6, making this an exciting race down the stretch

In week 11, Cincinnati benefited from having the worst team in the NFC come to town, and the Bengals clawed New Orleans for an easy victory.  Meanwhile, the Steelers knocked off the Browns, roughing up Phipps and forcing old veteran Bill Nelsen to finish the game.  The three teams were now tied at 5-6, and the media were starting to get on the Bengals’ bandwagon.

Week 12 was the big one.  Cincinnati’s only really tough remaining game took them across the continent to San Diego to face a Chargers team fighting in a three-way race in the AFC West.  It was a must-win game for both teams.  San Diego would be all but eliminated with a loss, while a win and losses by the Raiders and Chiefs would give them a chance to sneak in at the end.

The game was a tough defensive struggle, and for the only time since the implementation of the short passing game, Cincinnati could not move the ball with short passes.  San Diego begged Carter to throw long, and when he did, he was off target.  The Bengals would finish with zero net passing yards this Sunday, and the running game would manage 136 yards.  Few teams win NFL games with 136 total yards, but when you have the best punt returner in football in Lemar Parrish, sometimes you win games on 83-yard punt returns, which is what Cincinnati did when they edged the Chargers by three.

Cleveland topped a breathless Oilers team, but Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay.  The Bengals and Browns stayed tied at 6-6, while Pittsburgh was still in the race at 5-7, but obviously on the verge of elimination.

Week 13 saw the NFL experts picking the obvious.  Cincinnati played at the breathless Oilers, while Cleveland was forced to play the other hot team in the league in Dallas.  The Bengals had no trouble quickly topping the Oilers, rushing for close to 200 yards, while Carter got some rest in the second half.  At the same time, Cleveland could not move the ball at all against the surging Cowboys.  They lost a defensive struggle where they could only muster a safety.  Now, with one week to play, Cincinnati led the division at 7-6, while Cleveland was 6-7.  Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta and was eliminated at 5-8.

All Cincinnati had to do to complete the miraculous turnaround from 1-6 to 8-6 was to top a weak 2-11 Boston Patriots team at Riverfront Stadium.  Cleveland had to beat Denver, as they held the tiebreaker over the Bengals should both teams finish 7-7.

It was never in doubt.  Boston was now in star franchise quarterback mode.  A loss to the Bengals would give the Patriots their choice of Plunkett or Manning.  They wanted Plunkett, and they were sure to get him.  The Patriots looked worse than the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs would look in six years.  Cincinnati looked like the 1962 Green Bay Packers this day, as they rolled to a 45-7 victory.  Carter’s day was over early, after he went 3 for 3 for 96 yards and a TD.  Cincinnati had done the almost impossible–going from last place and 1-6 in the first half to first place and 7-0 in the second half.  The Bengals were inept against eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs when the Colts used the same tactics as the Chargers to stop the Cincinnati short passing game.  It was still an incredible year to remember in the Queen City, as a third year team won its division.

Now, can the 2018 New York Giants go from 1-7 to 9-7 and win the division?  Chances are less than the chances Cincinnati faced for multiple reasons.

First, the team at the top of the standings, Washington, is 6-3.  The Browns were never three games over .500 in 1970.  It’s possible that the Redskins could go 2-5 the rest of the way, but chances are less than 50-50 that will happen.

Second, Dallas and Philadelphia are not Pittsburgh and Houston.  You have the reigning World Champions that have yet to find their way in 2018, but they are not likely to fold.  Dallas may be an 8-8 team at best, but just one upset in the final weeks could move the Cowboys to 9-7.

Lastly, this Giants team just isn’t good enough to win eight consecutive games.  All they have done so far is beat a lowly 49ers team on Monday Night Football.  Unlike the Bengals in 1970, the 2018 Giants have a tough, almost brutal, closing schedule.  They are one-point favorites over Tampa Bay this week, but they will be underdogs in the rest of their games against the Eagles, Bears, Redskins, Titans, Colts, and Cowboys.  The more likely scenario is a 4-12 finish and not a 9-7 finish.

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 13
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ball St.	Western Michigan	-6.3	-6.0	-7.9

 

Wednesday	November 14
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Buffalo	2.1	1.2	1.5
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)	7.1	6.5	5.4

 

Thursday	November 15
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kent St.	Toledo	-16.5	-16.7	-16.3
Houston	Tulane	7.4	7.4	7.7
North Texas	Florida Atlantic	2.4	3.4	2.2

 

Friday	November 16
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	Memphis	-4.4	-6.0	-5.8
New Mexico	Boise St.	-23.1	-21.5	-23.7

 

Saturday	November 17
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Michigan	Indiana	32.8	32.7	33.6
Wake Forest	Pittsburgh	-2.5	-3.8	-4.1
Illinois	Iowa	-21.0	-19.7	-21.9
Purdue	Wisconsin	0.9	1.9	1.6
Georgia Tech	Virginia	11.6	10.6	12.2
Minnesota	Northwestern	-8.4	-8.0	-9.0
Clemson	Duke	30.1	29.6	31.6
Rutgers	Penn St.	-28.1	-26.4	-29.3
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	-4.8	-4.7	-4.7
East Carolina	Connecticut	12.7	12.1	13.2
Temple	South Florida	15.3	14.1	16.7
Georgia	Massachusetts	51.8	47.9	52.7
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	-9.6	-8.7	-9.3
Tennessee	Missouri	-13.0	-11.1	-14.3
Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	20.3	17.1	19.2
Maryland	Ohio St.	-16.4	-16.0	-17.4
Louisville	North Carolina St.	-17.1	-16.9	-17.7
Central Florida	Cincinnati	15.6	14.0	15.1
Auburn	Liberty	36.4	35.5	37.3
Charlotte	Florida Int’l.	-8.6	-9.9	-8.5
BYU	New Mexico St.	31.1	29.9	31.9
Wyoming	Air Force	1.2	0.5	0.1
Colorado	Utah	-13.2	-11.5	-13.3
Colorado St.	Utah St.	-26.3	-27.1	-28.0
Notre Dame	Syracuse	16.2	14.9	15.9
Appalachian St.	Georgia St.	24.7	24.7	26.1
Marshall	UTSA	24.9	23.6	25.7
California	Stanford	-5.0	-4.8	-5.2
Oregon	Arizona St.	1.6	2.8	2.5
Washington St.	Arizona	13.2	13.5	12.6
San Jose St.	Nevada	-15.4	-14.7	-17.0
Baylor	TCU	-1.4	-1.5	0.3
Navy	Tulsa	1.1	3.5	0.8
Texas A&M	UAB	18.6	14.6	17.9
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	23.4	23.7	25.2
Oklahoma St.	West Virginia	-5.4	-6.2	-4.9
Southern Miss.	Louisiana Tech	-4.1	-3.0	-4.4
Akron	Bowling Green	9.8	10.2	9.5
LSU	Rice	54.4	50.8	56.2
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	2.5	3.2	2.6
Florida St.	Boston College	-8.5	-7.6	-9.4
Oklahoma	Kansas	27.7	27.9	29.4
Washington	Oregon St.	38.8	38.8	40.7
Arkansas St.	UL-Monroe	4.8	5.6	5.7
Troy	Texas St.	22.1	20.9	23.6
Louisiana	South Alabama	12.1	12.8	13.4
Virginia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	-3.6	-3.2	-3.5
Western Kentucky	UTEP	8.4	8.3	9.0
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-11.1	-10.1	-11.5
Texas	Iowa St.	2.2	2.2	1.8
UCLA	USC	-7.4	-6.3	-8.6
Fresno St.	San Diego St.	20.1	19.7	20.3
Hawaii	UNLV	1.8	2.5	0.5

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Florida	Idaho	33.0
Alabama	Citadel	58.2
Army	Colgate	21.2
Old Dominion	VMI	20.9
North Carolina	Western Carolina	25.6
South Carolina	Chattanooga	36.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.0	128.8	130.7	129.8
4	Georgia	129.0	126.5	130.2	128.5
5	Notre Dame	125.2	122.7	124.3	124.0
6	Ohio St.	123.2	121.3	123.2	122.6
7	Oklahoma	122.1	120.8	122.2	121.7
8	Washington	121.3	119.2	121.9	120.8
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	118.7	117.8	119.5	118.7
11	Missouri	118.3	116.9	119.3	118.1
12	West Virginia	118.2	117.3	117.6	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.3	115.7	118.1	117.4
14	Michigan St.	116.6	114.5	116.1	115.8
15	Boston College	116.3	114.1	116.1	115.5
16	Auburn	115.4	114.1	116.7	115.4
17	Utah	115.6	114.0	116.0	115.2
18	Iowa	115.5	113.6	115.1	114.7
19	Iowa State	114.6	113.1	114.4	114.0
20	Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9
21	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
22	Central Florida	113.7	113.9	113.8	113.8
23	Washington St.	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
24	Fresno St.	113.6	113.1	114.0	113.6
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.6	114.2	113.6
26	Texas	113.8	112.3	113.3	113.1
27	Utah St.	111.2	112.7	112.5	112.1
28	Miami	112.8	111.1	111.9	112.0
29	Florida	111.8	110.1	112.3	111.4
30	Syracuse	111.9	110.8	111.4	111.4
31	Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3
32	Northwestern	111.7	110.1	111.7	111.2
33	Wisconsin	112.1	109.5	111.2	110.9
34	S. Carolina	111.5	110.3	111.0	110.9
35	Kentucky	110.7	109.4	110.6	110.2
36	Boise St.	110.3	109.8	110.4	110.2
37	N. Carolina St.	110.5	109.7	109.9	110.0
38	Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9
39	Texas Tech	110.5	109.1	109.5	109.7
40	Purdue	110.0	108.4	109.8	109.4
41	Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2
42	Oklahoma St.	109.8	108.1	109.7	109.2
43	Pittsburgh	109.1	108.6	108.9	108.9
44	California	108.1	106.0	108.1	107.4
45	U S C	108.0	106.4	107.2	107.2
46	Virginia Tech	106.2	104.9	105.4	105.5
47	Virginia	105.7	105.8	104.9	105.5
48	Temple	104.1	104.3	105.0	104.5
49	T C U	105.4	103.9	103.6	104.3
50	Florida St.	104.8	103.6	103.8	104.0
51	Vanderbilt	103.6	103.6	103.9	103.7
52	Arizona	104.1	102.7	104.4	103.7
53	Army	103.3	104.0	103.5	103.6
54	Ole Miss	103.6	103.0	103.8	103.4
55	Memphis	102.3	103.6	103.1	103.0
56	Wake Forest	104.2	102.3	102.4	102.9
57	Maryland	103.7	102.3	102.8	102.9
58	Tennessee	102.3	102.7	101.9	102.3
59	Kansas St.	102.8	101.4	101.7	102.0
60	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
61	Nebraska	102.6	101.4	101.7	101.9
62	Buffalo	100.5	102.5	101.8	101.6
63	Baylor	102.0	100.4	101.8	101.4
64	BYU	100.4	101.0	101.1	100.8
65	Houston	100.2	100.7	100.4	100.4
66	Ohio U	99.5	100.7	100.4	100.2
67	N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9
68	Indiana	100.2	99.1	100.0	99.8
69	Minnesota	100.4	99.1	99.7	99.7
70	Appalachian St.	98.5	100.4	100.1	99.6
71	Colorado	99.4	99.6	99.7	99.6
72	U A B	98.3	101.0	99.3	99.6
73	Northern Illinois	98.6	99.6	99.0	99.1
74	Arkansas	100.1	97.8	99.2	99.0
75	U C L A	99.1	98.6	97.1	98.2
76	Toledo	97.4	98.7	97.2	97.8
77	N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7
78	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
79	Nevada	96.6	96.8	97.0	96.8
80	Air Force	96.3	97.1	97.0	96.8
81	San Diego St.	96.5	96.5	96.8	96.6
82	Kansas	97.4	95.9	95.8	96.4
83	Tulane	95.8	96.3	95.7	95.9
84	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.7	95.7	95.9
85	Miami (O)	94.4	96.2	96.6	95.7
86	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
87	Wyoming	95.0	95.1	94.6	94.9
88	SMU	95.0	94.6	94.3	94.6
89	Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.3	94.4	94.4
90	Troy	92.6	94.0	94.3	93.6
91	Louisiana Tech	91.8	93.8	92.5	92.7
92	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
93	Illinois	92.0	91.4	90.7	91.4
94	Florida Int’l.	89.7	93.4	90.4	91.2
95	Arkansas St.	89.4	90.9	90.9	90.4
96	Louisville	90.9	90.3	89.7	90.3
97	Tulsa	90.0	89.6	90.0	89.9
98	Western Michigan	88.7	90.3	89.7	89.6
99	Georgia Southern	88.8	90.4	89.2	89.5
100	Navy	88.1	90.0	87.8	88.7
101	Akron	87.9	88.9	87.6	88.2
102	UL-Monroe	87.0	87.7	87.8	87.5
103	Rutgers	87.7	86.7	86.3	86.9
104	Southern Miss.	85.6	88.7	86.0	86.8
105	New Mexico	84.7	85.8	84.2	84.9
106	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
107	Louisiana	82.8	85.1	84.3	84.1
108	East Carolina	83.8	83.7	83.5	83.7
109	Old Dominion	82.2	85.4	82.1	83.3
110	U N L V	81.9	82.8	82.1	82.3
111	Colorado St.	82.0	82.6	81.5	82.0
112	Liberty	82.0	81.5	82.4	82.0
113	Central Michigan	80.3	82.4	80.5	81.1
114	Massachusetts	80.2	81.6	80.5	80.8
115	Hawaii	80.2	81.8	79.1	80.4
116	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.3	80.4
117	Bowling Green	80.1	80.7	80.1	80.3
118	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
119	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
120	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
121	San Jose St.	78.7	79.6	77.5	78.6
122	Coastal Carolina	77.2	79.7	77.9	78.3
123	Georgia St.	76.3	78.1	76.4	76.9
124	U T E P	73.1	76.2	73.1	74.1
125	Connecticut	74.1	74.6	73.3	74.0
126	Texas State	73.0	75.6	73.2	73.9
127	South Alabama	73.2	74.8	73.3	73.8
128	U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8
129	N. Mexico St.	72.3	74.1	72.2	72.9
130	Rice	67.3	70.0	66.3	67.9

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.7	113.9	113.8	113.8	6-0	9-0
Temple	104.1	104.3	105.0	104.5	5-1	6-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	5-1	9-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-3	7-3
East Carolina	83.8	83.7	83.5	83.7	0-6	2-7
Connecticut	74.1	74.6	73.3	74.0	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	102.3	103.6	103.1	103.0	3-3	6-4
Houston	100.2	100.7	100.4	100.4	4-2	7-3
Tulane	95.8	96.3	95.7	95.9	4-2	5-5
SMU	95.0	94.6	94.3	94.6	4-2	5-5
Tulsa	90.0	89.6	90.0	89.9	1-5	2-8
Navy	88.1	90.0	87.8	88.7	1-5	2-8
AAC Averages	95.0	95.6	95.0	95.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	7-0	10-0
Boston College	116.3	114.1	116.1	115.5	4-2	7-3
Syracuse	111.9	110.8	111.4	111.4	5-2	8-2
N. Carolina St.	110.5	109.7	109.9	110.0	3-3	6-3
Florida St.	104.8	103.6	103.8	104.0	2-5	4-6
Wake Forest	104.2	102.3	102.4	102.9	2-4	5-5
Louisville	90.9	90.3	89.7	90.3	0-7	2-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9	4-3	6-4
Miami	112.8	111.1	111.9	112.0	2-4	5-5
Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3	3-3	7-3
Pittsburgh	109.1	108.6	108.9	108.9	5-1	6-4
Virginia Tech	106.2	104.9	105.4	105.5	3-3	4-5
Virginia	105.7	105.8	104.9	105.5	4-2	7-3
N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9	1-6	1-8
ACC Averages	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.1	120.8	122.2	121.7	6-1	9-1
West Virginia	118.2	117.3	117.6	117.7	6-1	8-1
Iowa State	114.6	113.1	114.4	114.0	5-2	6-3
Texas	113.8	112.3	113.3	113.1	5-2	7-3
Texas Tech	110.5	109.1	109.5	109.7	3-4	5-5
Oklahoma St.	109.8	108.1	109.7	109.2	2-5	5-5
T C U	105.4	103.9	103.6	104.3	2-5	4-6
Kansas St.	102.8	101.4	101.7	102.0	2-5	4-6
Baylor	102.0	100.4	101.8	101.4	3-4	5-5
Kansas	97.4	95.9	95.8	96.4	1-6	3-7
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.0	128.8	130.7	129.8	7-0	9-1
Ohio St.	123.2	121.3	123.2	122.6	6-1	9-1
Penn St.	118.3	115.7	118.1	117.4	4-3	7-3
Michigan St.	116.6	114.5	116.1	115.8	5-3	6-4
Maryland	103.7	102.3	102.8	102.9	3-4	5-5
Indiana	100.2	99.1	100.0	99.8	2-5	5-5
Rutgers	87.7	86.7	86.3	86.9	0-7	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	115.5	113.6	115.1	114.7	3-4	6-4
Northwestern	111.7	110.1	111.7	111.2	6-1	6-4
Wisconsin	112.1	109.5	111.2	110.9	4-3	6-4
Purdue	110.0	108.4	109.8	109.4	4-3	5-5
Nebraska	102.6	101.4	101.7	101.9	2-5	3-7
Minnesota	100.4	99.1	99.7	99.7	2-5	5-5
Illinois	92.0	91.4	90.7	91.4	2-5	4-6
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	3-3	5-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	4-2	6-3
Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.3	94.4	94.4	6-1	7-3
Florida Int’l.	89.7	93.4	90.4	91.2	5-1	7-3
Old Dominion	82.2	85.4	82.1	83.3	2-5	3-7
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-3	4-6
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	98.3	101.0	99.3	99.6	7-0	9-1
N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7	3-3	7-3
Louisiana Tech	91.8	93.8	92.5	92.7	5-1	7-3
Southern Miss.	85.6	88.7	86.0	86.8	2-4	3-6
U T E P	73.1	76.2	73.1	74.1	1-5	1-9
U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8	2-4	3-7
Rice	67.3	70.0	66.3	67.9	0-7	1-10
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	125.2	122.7	124.3	124.0	x	10-0
Army	103.3	104.0	103.5	103.6	x	8-2
BYU	100.4	101.0	101.1	100.8	x	5-5
Liberty	82.0	81.5	82.4	82.0	x	4-5
Massachusetts	80.2	81.6	80.5	80.8	x	4-7
N. Mexico St.	72.3	74.1	72.2	72.9	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.9	94.1	94.0	94.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	100.5	102.5	101.8	101.6	6-0	9-1
Ohio U	99.5	100.7	100.4	100.2	4-2	6-4
Miami (O)	94.4	96.2	96.6	95.7	4-2	4-6
Akron	87.9	88.9	87.6	88.2	2-4	4-5
Bowling Green	80.1	80.7	80.1	80.3	1-5	2-8
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-5	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Northern Illinois	98.6	99.6	99.0	99.1	6-0	7-3
Toledo	97.4	98.7	97.2	97.8	3-3	5-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.7	95.7	95.9	4-3	6-5
Western Michigan	88.7	90.3	89.7	89.6	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	80.3	82.4	80.5	81.1	0-7	1-10
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.3	80.4	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.2	112.7	112.5	112.1	6-0	9-1
Boise St.	110.3	109.8	110.4	110.2	5-1	8-2
Air Force	96.3	97.1	97.0	96.8	2-4	4-6
Wyoming	95.0	95.1	94.6	94.9	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.7	85.8	84.2	84.9	1-5	3-7
Colorado St.	82.0	82.6	81.5	82.0	2-4	3-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	113.6	113.1	114.0	113.6	5-1	8-2
Nevada	96.6	96.8	97.0	96.8	4-2	6-4
San Diego St.	96.5	96.5	96.8	96.6	4-2	7-3
U N L V	81.9	82.8	82.1	82.3	1-5	3-7
Hawaii	80.2	81.8	79.1	80.4	3-3	6-5
San Jose St.	78.7	79.6	77.5	78.6	1-5	1-9
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.3	119.2	121.9	120.8	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	4-3	6-4
Washington St.	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	6-1	9-1
Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2	3-4	6-4
California	108.1	106.0	108.1	107.4	3-4	6-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-6	2-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.6	114.0	116.0	115.2	5-3	7-3
Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9	4-3	6-4
U S C	108.0	106.4	107.2	107.2	4-4	5-5
Arizona	104.1	102.7	104.4	103.7	4-3	5-5
Colorado	99.4	99.6	99.7	99.6	2-5	5-5
U C L A	99.1	98.6	97.1	98.2	2-5	2-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.1	107.3	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	129.0	126.5	130.2	128.5	7-1	9-1
Missouri	118.3	116.9	119.3	118.1	2-4	6-4
Florida	111.8	110.1	112.3	111.4	5-3	7-3
S. Carolina	111.5	110.3	111.0	110.9	4-4	5-4
Kentucky	110.7	109.4	110.6	110.2	5-3	7-3
Vanderbilt	103.6	103.6	103.9	103.7	1-5	4-6
Tennessee	102.3	102.7	101.9	102.3	2-4	5-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	7-0	10-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-4	6-4
L S U	118.7	117.8	119.5	118.7	5-2	8-2
Auburn	115.4	114.1	116.7	115.4	3-4	6-4
Texas A&M	113.9	112.6	114.2	113.6	4-3	6-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.0	103.8	103.4	1-5	5-5
Arkansas	100.1	97.8	99.2	99.0	0-6	2-8
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.5	100.4	100.1	99.6	5-1	7-2
Troy	92.6	94.0	94.3	93.6	6-0	8-2
Georgia Southern	88.8	90.4	89.2	89.5	4-2	7-3
Coastal Carolina	77.2	79.7	77.9	78.3	2-4	5-5
Georgia St.	76.3	78.1	76.4	76.9	1-5	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.4	90.9	90.9	90.4	3-3	6-4
UL-Monroe	87.0	87.7	87.8	87.5	4-2	6-4
Louisiana	82.8	85.1	84.3	84.1	3-3	5-5
Texas State	73.0	75.6	73.2	73.9	1-5	3-7
South Alabama	73.2	74.8	73.3	73.8	1-5	2-8
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

PiRate Ratings of the Conferences

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.5	106.1	107.3	106.9
6	AAC	95.0	95.6	95.0	95.2
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.9	94.1	94.0	94.0
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Utah State
3. Cincinnati
4. UAB
5. Army

 

Bowl and Playoff Projections

With two weeks remaining in the regular season plus a weekend of conference championship games, most of the conference races are getting quite interesting. The good news for the bowls this year is that there is now about a one in one hundred thousand chance that a team with a losing record will be needed. Actually, chances are maybe 98% that there will be bowl eligible teams that do not receive bowl bids, even some teams with seven and eight wins.

As we project the bowl and playoff bids today, we believe six bowl eligible teams will be left out of the bowl picture. There are already 64 bowl eligible teams with close to 20 more needing just one more win. Let’s take a look at each conference and show you where they stand today and where we think they will finish.

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic
Both division races have interesting key games this weekend. In the East, Central Florida hosts Cincinnati. If the Golden Knights win to remain undefeated, they will clinch the East Division title. However, if one-loss Cincinnati pulls off the win, and Temple beats South Florida, then there will be a three-way tie for first with one game to go. All three have very winnable final games, so at 7-1, there would be a tiebreaker involved, and Cincinnati would get the nod several layers down in the tie-breaking procedure.

Houston looked like a cinch to win the West Division until back-to-back losses to SMU and Temple knocked the Cougars into a three-way tie with SMU and surprising Tulane. Tulane and Houston square off in Houston this weekend, while SMU plays tough Memphis. This race will come down to the last weekend, and SMU has the advantage as of today.

Already Bowl Eligible: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Temple, South Florida, Houston, and Memphis

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Tulane and SMU

 

Conference USA
This league will fall shy of the number of bowl eligible teams compared to last year, but there will still be seven conference teams available for the seven bowl tie-ins the league has this year.

The East Division is down to a three-team race between Florida International, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. Middle currently leads FIU by a half-game in the standings, but the Blue Raiders close with a home game against the top team in the league in UAB. FIU beat Middle and holds the tie-breaker edge, but the Panthers must still beat Marshall.

There is a chance that the three contenders will all finish 6-2, if UAB beats Middle, and Marshall beats FIU. Should that happen, Middle Tennessee would win the tie-breaker well down the procedure list.

UAB has already clinched the West Division championship, but the Blazers have something more to play for. It is a long shot, but if UAB could pull off the big upset at Texas A&M,then win at Middle Tennessee, and then win the CUSA Championship Game, the Blazers could be in the mix for a Peach Bowl bid should Central Florida lose to somebody other than Cincinnati and both Utah State and Boise State lose another game. The Blazers would be 12-1 in this situation.

Already Bowl Eligible: Florida International, Middle Tennessee, Marshall, UAB, North Texas, and Louisiana Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Florida Atlantic
Independents
We don’t count Notre Dame in this section, because the Irish are classified with the Power Five conferences. Army is already bowl eligible and will definitely get an at-large bid to a bowl. BYU needs one more win, and the Cougars face a weak New Mexico State team this week, so they should get that win. They are also guaranteed an at-large bid to a bowl that ESPN sponsors.

Liberty will most likely finish 6-6, but the Flames are ineligible in their transition year in FBS. There is a loophole for Liberty to become bowl eligible if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, but as we said before, there will be most likely six bowl eligible teams more than needed this year.

Already Bowl Eligible: Army

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: BYU (& Liberty in reserve)

 

Mid-American
The two MAC races are basically sewn up with two weeks to go. Buffalo has a two-game lead over Ohio U in the East, and even if the Bulls lose at Ohio this week, they would also have to lose against lowly Bowling Green next week, while Ohio then beats Akron. We don’t see Buffalo finishing 0-2, and the Bulls have a better chance to finish 2-0 and stay alive in the New Year’s 6 Bowl race.

Northern Illinois is in the same boat as Buffalo in the West Division race. The Huskies lead Western Michigan by two games, and even though NIU and WMU face off in the regular season finale, the only way that game will determine the division title is if NIU loses at home to Miami of Ohio this week and WMU wins at Ball St. Miami is trying to sneak into bowl eligibility and needs wins over NIU and Ball State, but we don’t see the Red Hawks competing with the Huskies this week.

Already Bowl Eligible: Buffalo, Ohio U, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Toledo

 

Mountain West
Both races are still undecided with two week to go. Boise State’s big win over Fresno State gave the Broncos a big boost, for if they win out against New Mexico in Albuquerque and Utah State on the Blue Field, then Boise takes the Mountain Division crown.
Utah State plays at Colorado State in a game that mean nothing toward the Mountain Division race, but it means everything if the Aggies want to sneak into the Fiesta Bowl as the Group of 5 representative. If USU beats CSU and then knocks off Boise in Boise, the Aggies would enter the MWC Championship Game needing a win and a UCF loss to earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.

In the West Division, Fresno State is still in control of the race, but the Bulldogs have been exposed with questionable offensive and defensive lines. San Diego State and Nevada are just one game back with two to go, and SDSU and Fresno play this weekend in Fresno. Should the Aztecs recover from a late swoon and pull off the upset, then there could be a three-way tie for first at 6-2. Fresno State would win the tie-breaker.

Already Bowl Eligible: Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and San Diego State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Hawaii and Wyoming

 

Sun Belt
Technically, three teams are still alive in the East Division, as Troy is 6-0, Appalachian State is 5-1, and Georgia Southern is 4-2. However, Troy hosts a very weak Texas State team this week, and a Trojan win eliminates GSU. The regular season finale sends Troy to Appy State, and the winner of that game will win the division title.

The West Division race is also a three-team affair, but the three teams all have legitimate chances of capturing the flag. UL-Monroe leads Louisiana and Arkansas State by a game, but they conclude the regular season playing both contenders–Arkanasas State in Jonesboro and Louisiana in Monroe. Obviously, If ULM wins both games, they win the division title. If they lose one of the two games, then the team that beats them will win the division title if they also win their other game. Louisiana’s other game is a home game with South Alabama, while Arky State plays at Texas State. If both Arky State and Louisiana beat ULM, then Louisiana wins the division.

Already Bowl Eligible: Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Monroe, and Arkansas St.

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Coastal Carolina and Louisiana

 

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Can anybody in this league beat Clemson that still might play the Tigers this year? Duke and South Carolina are not likely candidates, so it figures that CU will enter the ACC Championship Game at 12-0. Who the Tigers will play is still a question with two weeks to go.

After losing to a North Carolina team that has not won another game this year, Pittsburgh did not look like a bowl eligible team at all. The Panthers were 2-3 with two lopsided losses (Penn State and Central Florida). A 3-9 record looked possible at that point, because the back end of the schedule looked brutal. After an upset of Syracuse and a near miss loss at Notre Dame, Pitt was still 3-4 and not looking like they would find three more wins on their schedule. Consecutive wins over Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, have placed the Panthers into first place in the Coastal Division with two games to go. Both games are on the road but winnable against mediocre teams. The problem for the Panthers is that both Wake Forest and Miami are fighting for bowl eligibility, and it would not surprise us if one of the two knock the Panthers off their perch. Pittsburgh will still win the division if they split their final two games, but should the unthinkable happen, and they lose both games, then it throws this division race into a mad world.
Virginia would have a chance to win the division, but the Cavaliers play their final two games on the road against a fast-closing Georgia Tech, and a Virginia Tech team that might be 5-5 and needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech all have three conference losses, but the chances that any of the three can win the division are quite remote. And, in the end, who really wants to get drubbed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game?

Already Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Miami

 

Big 12
This is another interesting race with four teams contending for the two Championship Game bids. Oklahoma (6-1) and West Virginia (6-1) control their own destiny, but since they still must play each other, at least one of these two teams might no longer control their destiny.

Iowa State (5-2) would sneak into the Big 12 Championship Game, should they beat Texas and Kansas State and Oklahoma beats West Virginia. Texas (5-2) would be the second team if the Longhorns beat Iowa State and Kansas and West Virginia beats Oklahoma.
Should West Virginia lose at Oklahoma State this week and then beat Oklahoma, then there could be a three-way tie at 7-2, with one of the teams eliminated. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Texas finish tied in this scenario, Texas and Oklahoma would play for the Big 12 Championship. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Iowa State finish tied in this scenario, then Iowa State and West Virginia would play for the title.

Already Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, and Iowa State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and  Baylor

 

Big Ten
The East race is down to the same two teams that have always competed for the Big Ten title. Michigan faces Ohio State in Columbus in two weeks, and the winner will face Northwestern for the Big Ten Championship.
Obviously, the Wolverines are playing for a lot more than just the league title. Wins over Indiana, Ohio State, and Northwestern will clinch a spot in the Playoffs. Ohio State has a minimal chance of making the playoffs by closing out with wins over Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern can win the Rose Bowl bid by upsetting either team in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Already Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota

Pac-12
The North Division race will be determined in the Palouse when the Washington Huskies visit Washington State for the Apple Cup. Stanford has been eliminated by virtue of losing to both Olympic State teams.
The South Division is still quite chaotic. Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah have three conference losses, while USC has four. Arizona State is the current tiebreaker leader by virtue of a win over Utah, while Utah drubbed Arizona and holds second place today. However, Arizona has not played Arizona State, and should the Wildcats beat the Sun Devils, and there is a multiple way tie at 5-4 with three or four teams, the possibilities are not endless, but they seem to appear that way. USC is not in the race, even if they finish in a first place tie. In the event of a tie at 5-4 between Arizona State, Arizona, USC, and Utah, the Utes win the tiebreaker. In another scenario, if Colorado beats Utah, Oregon beats Arizona State, and then Arizona State beats Arizona, then Arizona State wins the division at 5-4 no matter what USC does.
Already Bowl Eligible: Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, Utah, and Arizona State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: USC and Arizona

 

Southeastern
This is a race that is already determined. Alabama and Georgia will play in the SEC Championship Game no matter what they do the rest of the season. We expect they will both win out. Georgia finishes with two non-conference opponents. They can name the score with UMass, and they should be able to slow down the Georgia Tech option game and run over the Techsters to finish 11-1. Alabama could score 100 points this week against The Citadel if Nick Saban was Barry Switzer or Bill Yeoman, but we expect a possible 56-0 halftime score to lead to a 77-0 win at most. Then, Alabama should handle Auburn in Tuscaloosa to finish 12-0.
Georgia would have to win the SEC Championship to get into the Playoffs unless a lot of nearly impossible events leave a trail of two loss teams in the wake. If the Bulldogs upset the Tide, then most likely Georgia would move up to number two and Alabama would fall to number three, leaving Michigan in a bind.

Already Bowl Eligible: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Auburn

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: South Carolina and Tennessee

Here are this week’s playoff and bowl projections.

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Middle Tennessee
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Missouri
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Indiana	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Minnesota
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	North Carolina St.	Tennessee
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	LSU
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Duke
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Purdue	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Kentucky
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Utah
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

FBS Playoff Projections

Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Syracuse	Louisville	10.5	Syracuse
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	1.5	Texas A&M
Kansas St.	Kansas	22	Kansas

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
West Virginia	TCU	1.5	WVU
Eastern Michigan	Akron	3	EMU
Duke	North Carolina	Pk	Duke

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arizona St.	UCLA	2.5	Arizona St.
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	9.5	Oklahoma
Purdue	Minnesota	2.5	Purdue

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulane	East Carolina	3.5	Tulane
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	10	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Auburn	24.5	Auburn

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cinciannati	East Carolina	2.5	Cincinnati
Texas Tech	Texas	8.5	Texas
UAB	Southern Miss.	2.5	UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	4	NC St.
Florida	South Carolina	20	S. Car.
BYU	Massachusetts	27	UMass
Troy	Georgia Southern	14.5	Ga. Southern

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Kentucky	7	Kentucky
Colorado	Washington St.	7	Washington St.
Louisiana	Georgia St.	1	Louisiana
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	7.5	UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win	Must Lose
Ohio U	Miami (O)
Northern Illinois	Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win	Must Lose
South Carolina	Florida
Kansas	Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Chicago	6.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Arizona	3.5	Kansas City
Tennessee	New England	6.5	New England
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10	Indianapolis

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	L.A. Chargers	3	L.A. Chargers
Miami	Green Bay	3	Green Bay
Seattle	L.A. Rams	3	L.A. Rams
Dallas	Philadelphia	6.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	31.5	Over
Cincinnati	New Orleans	41	Over
Cleveland	Atlanta	37.5	Over
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	24	Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 8-12, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Pittsburgh	Carolina	5.5	6.1	5.2
Chicago	Detroit	7.3	7.0	8.1
Cincinnati	New Orleans	-7.6	-7.5	-8.1
Cleveland	Atlanta	-5.5	-5.1	-5.0
Green Bay	Miami	7.2	8.2	6.8
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	1.6	0.8	1.8
Kansas City	Arizona	14.8	16.1	15.7
L.A. Rams	Seattle	7.8	8.6	7.6
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	8.9	8.3	8.9
Oakland	L.A. Chargers	-11.0	-11.8	-11.9
Philadelphia	Dallas	5.9	6.2	6.3
Tampa Bay	Washington	-0.4	0.4	0.1
Tennessee	New England	-4.3	-4.7	-5.0
San Francisco	N.Y. Giants	3.3	4.0	3.6

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Pittsburgh	Carolina	47
Chicago	Detroit	48.5
Cincinnati	New Orleans	51
Cleveland	Atlanta	49.5
Green Bay	Miami	46.5
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	45
Kansas City	Arizona	47
L.A. Rams	Seattle	49
N.Y. Jets	Buffalo	38.5
Oakland	L.A. Chargers	44.5
Philadelphia	Dallas	41.5
Tampa Bay	Washington	49
Tennessee	New England	42
San Francisco	N.Y. Giants	43

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.8	106.3	106.1	106.1	23	7-2
N. Y. Jets	97.1	96.5	96.8	96.8	22.5	3-6
Miami	95.4	95.0	95.3	95.2	22	5-4
Buffalo	90.3	90.2	89.9	90.1	16	2-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	106.2	106.4	106.2	106.3	23	5-2-1
Baltimore	102.7	103.0	102.6	102.8	21	4-5
Cincinnati	98.5	98.8	98.5	98.6	23.5	5-3
Cleveland	94.3	94.5	94.8	94.5	24	2-6-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	100.7	100.8	100.9	100.8	24	6-3
Jacksonville	99.8	99.5	99.7	99.6	19	3-5
Tennessee	98.4	98.6	98.1	98.4	19	4-4
Indianapolis	98.5	97.3	98.4	98.1	26	3-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.9	108.4	108.5	108.3	28	8-1
LA Chargers	103.3	104.1	103.7	103.7	23.5	6-2
Denver	98.9	98.5	98.2	98.5	21	3-6
Oakland	90.3	90.3	89.8	90.1	21	1-7
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	102.3	102.5	102.1	102.3	22	4-4
Dallas	99.5	99.3	98.7	99.2	19.5	3-5
Washington	98.1	97.2	98.1	97.8	22	5-3
N.Y. Giants	95.2	95.0	95.1	95.1	20.5	1-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	103.9	103.7	104.6	104.1	23	5-3
Minnesota	102.3	102.5	102.2	102.3	21.5	5-3-1
Green Bay	99.6	100.2	99.1	99.6	24.5	3-4-1
Detroit	99.2	99.2	99.0	99.1	25.5	3-5
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	109.1	109.3	109.7	109.4	27.5	7-1
Carolina	103.7	103.3	104.0	103.7	24	6-2
Atlanta	102.8	102.7	102.8	102.7	25.5	4-4
Tampa Bay	95.2	95.1	95.7	95.3	27	3-5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.3	108.0	107.4	107.6	27.5	8-1
Seattle	102.5	102.4	102.8	102.6	21.5	4-4
San Francisco	95.6	96.0	95.7	95.8	22.5	2-7
Arizona	96.1	95.3	95.8	95.7	19	2-6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	New England
3	Pittsburgh
4	Houston
5	L.A. Chargers
6	Cincinnati

 

NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	L.A. Rams
3	Chicago
4	Philadelphia
5	Carolina
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

L.A. Chargers over Houston

Chicago over Minnesota

Carolina over Philadelphia

 

Divisional Round

L.A. Chargers over Kansas City

Pittsburgh over New England

New Orleans over Carolina

L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship

L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh

L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53

L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

Final Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Pardon our brevity today, but we do have other tasks at hands on the PiRate ship.  This is our final election eve analytical look at the 2018 Mid-term Election races.

U.S. Senate

We were tempted to make one slight change today based on the final reliable polling coming from a couple of honest pollsters.  However, in these states, Early Voting has already seen large percentages of voters deciding.  We have to use the polls at the time of Early Voting, so we did not move the needle at all.

For three weeks, we have been split between 53-47 and 54-46 in favor of the Republicans in the Senate.  Our Over/Under spread would be 53 1/2.

U.S. House of Representatives

This could take up hours more than we have to explain, and if you are reading this 14 hours before the polls open on the East Coast, you only have time for a couple of paragraphs.

Based on our models of handicapping the polls based on their recent biases from the previous election, we believe that the Democrats are assured of picking up 13 seats as their floor and 34 seats as their ceiling.  They currently own 193 seats, so this bumps their minimum in the next Congress to 206 and a maximum of 227.  It takes 218 to get a majority.

We believe that there are about 26 seats remaining that are true tossup races.  Of the 26 tossups, the Democrats need to win 12 of the races to gain control.  If you factor in that the Democrats polled a little better three weeks ago when some states commenced with early voting, we tend to tilt the needle of toss-up races in their favor.  If we had to wager on an over/under number for the number of Democrats in the next Congress, we’d place that number at 219.5, since our data shows the Democrats taking control of the House by a margin of 219 to 216 or 220 to 215.

Gubernatorial Races

We must admit that we did not perform any additional data mining on the governor’s races.  We will stick with our over/under number of 26.5 in favor of the Republicans, as our data is split between 26-24 and 27-23 in favor of the GOP.

 

Our plea with our incredible brothers and sisters of the greatest nation in the world.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, please act like a good and decent human being and accept the results without resulting to violence.  Our nation received the most incredible gift from our Founding Fathers.

There is a fantastic quote attributable to Benjamin Franklin in 1787.  When Franklin was leaving Independence Hall following long hours of discussion at the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Franklin as he left the hall whether our new nation would be a Republic or a Monarchy.

Franklin’s genius reply was, “A Republic if you can keep it.”

My fellow friends and countrymen, we are doing our worst not to keep it.  I lived through the 1968 through 1972 election cycle.  I never believed the nation could become more divided then than ever again in my lifetime.  We are approaching this four year black eye.  Let’s stop it before it can surpass those four years.

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Kent St.	22.1	23.1	23.3

 

Wednesday	November 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Ohio U	-3.7	-3.3	-2.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.2	-0.1	0.5

 

Thursday	November 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	11.7	13.2	13.5

 

Friday	November 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	Louisville	22.9	22.1	23.2
Boise St.	Fresno St.	-2.0	-2.3	-2.9

 

Saturday	November 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Temple	1.8	2.5	1.5
Rutgers	Michigan	-40.1	-39.9	-42.5
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-1.4	-0.6	-0.8
Boston College	Clemson	-19.6	-19.4	-20.6
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	13.3	12.4	13.2
Tennessee	Kentucky	-13.0	-11.2	-13.3
Massachusetts	BYU	-16.5	-15.3	-16.5
Virginia	Liberty	26.1	26.9	25.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	1.2	1.6	0.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	15.8	16.1	16.0
Central Florida	Navy	30.0	28.3	30.8
West Virginia	TCU	10.6	11.0	11.6
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	4.3	5.0	5.0
Kansas St.	Kansas	7.3	7.4	8.1
Eastern Michigan	Akron	7.4	7.7	7.8
Indiana	Maryland	-1.4	-1.1	-0.7
Connecticut	SMU	-18.9	-18.4	-19.5
Duke	North Carolina	13.9	12.9	13.7
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	16.1	16.7	16.7
Iowa	Northwestern	9.0	9.0	8.9
Cincinnati	South Florida	12.9	13.2	13.9
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	-6.5	-5.4	-7.2
Tulane	East Carolina	15.3	16.1	15.9
Utah	Oregon	9.7	8.1	9.5
Colorado	Washington St.	-9.1	-7.5	-8.2
Marshall	Charlotte	18.1	18.4	18.4
Old Dominion	North Texas	-15.6	-14.6	-16.5
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	8.0	10.0	8.5
Nevada	Colorado St.	12.8	12.2	13.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	32.1	31.9	33.6
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-17.5	-16.1	-18.8
Georgia	Auburn	15.9	14.6	15.6
Penn St.	Wisconsin	8.8	8.8	9.5
Alabama	Mississippi St.	24.1	24.3	24.7
Air Force	New Mexico	14.2	13.7	14.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	19.1	17.4	20.0
Nebraska	Illinois	12.8	12.0	12.8
Minnesota	Purdue	-14.2	-13.9	-14.7
Memphis	Tulsa	12.6	14.5	13.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.1	2.4	4.3
USC	California	3.9	4.5	3.1
Texas Tech	Texas	1.2	1.5	1.0
Arkansas	LSU	-16.4	-18.2	-18.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	35.3	35.7	38.0
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-20.3	-22.5
Louisiana	Georgia St.	9.0	9.2	10.1
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	20.9	19.3	20.9
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	-7.7	-6.4	-8.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	28.6	27.9	30.9
UTSA	Florida Int’l.	-10.3	-9.9	-10.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	21.8	20.2	21.6
UAB	Southern Miss.	17.2	16.8	17.8
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
Arizona St.	UCLA	16.3	15.5	18.6
San Diego St.	UNLV	22.7	21.7	23.1

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0
4	Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4
5	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
6	Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7
7	Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0
8	Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2
11	Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8
12	Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
14	Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9
15	Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6
17	Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3
18	West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0
19	Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6
20	Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4
21	Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2
22	Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0
23	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
24	Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5
26	Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2
27	Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5
28	Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3
29	Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1
30	Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0
31	N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9
32	Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6
33	Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3
34	Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1
35	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
36	Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0
37	Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8
38	Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5
39	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
40	Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2
41	Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0
42	Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0
43	Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2
44	U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7
45	T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9
46	California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9
47	Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1
49	Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
50	Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6
51	Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4
54	Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0
55	Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8
56	Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2
57	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
58	Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
59	Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8
60	Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4
61	Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2
62	Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1
64	BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6
65	U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6
66	Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5
67	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4
68	Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7
69	N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
71	N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5
72	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
74	Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5
75	Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5
76	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
77	U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0
78	Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9
79	Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5
80	Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4
81	Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1
82	Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9
83	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
84	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4
85	SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0
86	Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6
87	Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6
88	Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5
89	Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3
90	Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6
91	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
92	Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9
93	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
94	Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2
95	Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0
96	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5
98	Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4
99	Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0
100	Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8
101	Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9
102	Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7
103	Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8
104	UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6
105	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
106	Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5
107	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
108	Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1
109	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
110	East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2
111	Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7
112	Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5
113	Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0
114	Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5
115	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
116	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
117	Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2
118	Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1
119	U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0
120	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
121	San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7
122	Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8
123	Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3
124	U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3
125	South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7
126	Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8
127	U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0
128	Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6
129	N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6
130	Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6	5-0	8-0
Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8	4-1	5-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	4-1	8-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-2	7-2
East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-5	2-6
Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9	2-3	5-4
Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8	4-1	7-2
Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4	3-2	4-5
SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0	3-2	4-5
Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0	1-4	2-7
Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9	1-4	2-7
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	6-0	9-0
Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8	4-1	7-2
N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9	2-2	6-2
Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0	4-2	7-2
Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7	2-5	4-5
Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1	1-4	4-5
Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2	0-6	2-7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	3-3	5-4
Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1	2-3	5-4
Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6	2-3	6-3
Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0	3-2	4-4
Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7	4-2	6-3
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1	4-1	5-4
N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6	1-5	1-7
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7	5-1	8-1
West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0	5-1	7-1
Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2	4-2	5-3
Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3	4-2	6-3
Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5	3-3	5-4
Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2	2-4	5-4
T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9	2-4	4-5
Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2	1-5	3-6
Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2	3-3	5-4
Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0	6-0	8-1
Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0	5-1	8-1
Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7	5-2	6-3
Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	3-3	6-3
Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	3-3	5-4
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7	0-6	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9	3-3	6-3
Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2	4-2	5-4
Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1	4-2	6-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-4
Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4	1-5	2-7
Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9	1-5	4-5
Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9	2-4	4-5
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	2-3	4-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	3-2	5-3
Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5	5-1	6-3
Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0	4-1	6-3
Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-5	1-8
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-2	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6	6-0	8-1
N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5	3-2	7-2
Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6	4-1	6-3
Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8	2-3	3-5
U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3	2-3	3-6
U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0	1-4	1-8
Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0	0-6	1-9
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	9-0
Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6	x	7-2
BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6	x	4-5
Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7	x	4-4
Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5	4-1	6-3
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4	5-0	8-1
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4	3-2	3-6
Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5	2-3	4-4
Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5	1-4	2-7
Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9	5-0	6-3
Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6	3-3	5-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1	0-6	1-9
Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0	5-0	8-1
Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0	4-1	7-2
Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5	1-4	3-6
Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-4	3-6
Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4	5-0	8-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	4-1	7-2
Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3	3-2	5-4
Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1	3-3	6-5
U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0	0-5	2-7
San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7	1-4	1-8
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	3-3	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5	5-1	8-1
Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2	3-3	6-3
California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9	2-4	5-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-5	2-7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3	4-3	6-3
Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8	3-3	5-4
U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7	4-3	5-4
Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4	4-3	5-5
Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2	2-4	5-4
U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0	2-4	2-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4	6-1	8-1
Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8	1-4	5-4
Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0	5-2	7-2
Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3	4-3	6-3
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	4-3	5-3
Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	6-0	9-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-3	6-3
L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2	4-2	7-2
Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6	3-3	6-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5	3-3	5-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-4	5-4
Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	4-1	6-2
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	5-0	7-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7	4-1	7-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-3	5-4
Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3	1-4	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8	2-3	5-4
UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6	3-2	5-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-3	4-5
South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7	1-4	2-7
Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8	1-4	3-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Fresno St.
3. Utah St.
4. Cincinnati
5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Houston	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	SMU	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Buffalo]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Boston College	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	UL-Monroe
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Kentucky
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	North Carolina St.	West Virginia
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Update To An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

This update to the statistical analysis we gave two weeks ago will be shorter than the previous post given due to time constraints, but we believe it will be a little more accurate now that there are many additional points to plot on our regression boards.

SENATE

Safe Seats

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)

Moved from Safe to Leaning

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D) vs. Karin Housley (R) Smith +4

Smith has the advantage, but her lead has dwindled to the point where a large GOP voting turnout could flip this seat to the Republicans. Housley has proven to be a formidable campaigner and has cut a double-digit lead down to within the margin of error when our formula has been applied.

Toss-up States

Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Martha McSally (R)

Recent news of statements made by Sinema concerning her constituents has cost her almost any chance of winning this race. It is almost a safe seat for the Republicans

Florida
Bill Nelson (D)
Rick Scott (R)

This is probably the closest race in the Senate. Voter turnout on election day will decide the winner. The stats show Nelson with less than two-tenths of a percent lead. Might there be a challenge by whoever loses? In Florida, it’s a good chance.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D)
Mike Braun (R)
Lucy Brenton (L)

This race became a lot more interesting at the end of October, as the Indiana Democratic Party released a mass mailer telling people to vote for Libertarian candidate Brenton, as a ploy to get Braun supporters to vote for Brenton and thus give Donnelly the win. Braun was once a Democrat, and he may lose just enough support to Brenton for Donnelly to win with a plurality but not a majority of the vote.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Mike Espy (D)
Chris McDaniel (R)
Toby Bartee (D)

Hyde-Smith appears to be in excellent shape to finish in first in the open primary, but she should fall short of the needed 50%+1 vote to avoid a runoff election. McDaniel is closing in on Espy for second place, but it would be a major upset if the runoff election did not pit Hyde-Smith against Espy. Hyde-Smith polls double digits ahead of Espy in the runoff, which will be held on November 27.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R)
Claire McCaskill (D)

James O’Keefe at Project Veritas is proving to be the 21st Century version of Mike Wallace from 60 Minutes in the 1970’s and 1980’s. His undercover sleuthing looks to have proven to be a mortal wound for McCaskill, and The Show Me State is looking like a Republican pick-up. O’Keefe showed them.

Montana
Jon Tester (D)
Matt Rosendale (R)

This race has gotten even tighter since our last report. We have moved it to leaning Democrat to toss-up. Tester led this race by close to double digits just after Labor Day, but it is now well within the margin of error, and this is usually a Red state. We believe that Rosendale may have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of defeating the incumbent Tester.  With the Independent candidate dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale, this could give the Republican the final two or three percent he needs to defeat Tester.

 

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D)
Bob Hugin (R)

Menendez should have secured this victory weeks ago, but Hugin continues to remain within striking distance. How the suburban turnout goes on Election Day will determine if this race will be decided by less than 2% either way. We still believe Menendez will squeak by, but this race has moved from leaning Democrat to Toss-up barely favoring the Democrat.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R)
Jacky Rosen (D)

This is one race where we have tossed out the outlier polls on both sides. We believe these polls to be too partial and thus discount them to the point where they offer no accuracy. The remaining polls have showed a slow but steady climb in the numbers for Heller. Rosen needed to hit about 48% in the most recent reliable polls, and she has failed to do so. When the challenger cannot get to 48% in the final week of an election, the incumbent will win 90+% of the time. We believe Heller wins by as much as 6%.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R)
Heidi Heitkamp (D)

Really, we should put this race into the safe Republican section, but it began as an up for grabs seat, and we will leave it here. Heitkamp had too much against her in this state. Cramer has become a star in the House of Representatives, and the House seat in North Dakota is a statewide race. In essence, Cramer has more notoriety statewide than the incumbent Heitkamp. Plus, this is a heavy Red state, so the numbers just work against Heitkamp here. Expect Cramer to approach a double-digit win.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D)
Lou Barletta (R)

Casey has never seriously been threatened in this race, as Barletta’s campaign never took off in the Metropolitan areas. Barletta needed to sweep the Pittsburgh suburbs, and it looks like he is barely getting a majority in this area. Meanwhile, Philadelphia supports Casey by a large margin, and this will lead to Casey winning in a minor landslide.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Phil Bredesen (D)

James O’Keefe strikes again! Former Nashville Mayor and Governor Bredesen was holding his own in this race in a state that went heavy for President Trump in 2016. When Project Veritas released video of the Bredesen campaign admitting that support for Justice Kavanaugh was a lie, it threw this race into safe territory for the GOP. Plus, Bredesen might have already lost a little of his female base by showing support for Kavanaugh. Blackburn has a chance to score a double-digit victory and become the first female ever to be elected to statewide office in Tennessee.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R)
Beto O’Rourke (D)

Cruz is polliing above 50% in all major polls, so this race can be put into the safe Republican seat category. O’Rourke played Russian Roulette with his stance on guns, and he was the unlucky participant.

Late note: Project Veritas struck again Thursday night when they released information showing O’Rourke campaign staffers admitting to illegally using campaign funds to supply the Honduran Caravan.  It should be the final nail in the candidate’s coffin.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D)
Patrick Morrisey (R)

Because of the limited number of polls that meet our criteria for limited bias, this race may be the hardest one for us to analyze. Manchin was once above 50% in many polls and is now below 50% in all the reliable polls. Incumbents need to stay above 48% at this point in the race in hopes to receive 2% more from the undecideds. Manchin’s average polling numbers at the end of October place him at 46-47%. Morrisey has about 43%, which means an abnormally high 10% of West Virginia’s likely voters are still undecided (or the polling data is flawed). Our statistical analysis shows that Manchin enters November with a 3% lead and with as much as 8% of likely voters still undecided. At 47.5 to 44.5, Manchin needs 2.5% of the remaining 8% to win. Incumbents tend to lose about 2/3 of the undecided vote in the final week of the election. Thus, we favor Manchin at 50.17% to 49.83% for Morrisey, in other words a very close race.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Leah Vukmir (R)

Baldwin is consistently polling between 52 and 55% in the polls with about 3-4% undecided votes. She should win by close to double-digits if not slightly over.

As of November 2, Our Prediction for the US Senate is:

Republicans 54
Democrats 46

This would be a pickup of three seats for the GOP. This would be the largest mid-term Senate gain for the President’s Party since 1962 when the Democrats gained four seats in the Mid-term with President John F. Kennedy in office. No Republican President has ever seen his party gain three seats in the Senate in a mid-term election, and George W. Bush, is the only other Republican president to see his party gain in the Senate mid-term election. In 2002, the GOP gained one seat.

 

The House of Representatives
This is the most interesting and the most difficult thing the PiRate Ratings have ever tried to analyze, be it sports, stock investments, or even when the first snow will fall in our base city. We have to admit that three of us stayed awake until past 3 AM pouring over notes and coming to different conclusions. One of us calculated a 27-seat gain for the Democrats, meaning they would own the majority at 220-215. One of us calculated that the Republicans would squeak by with a 219-216 majority and a loss of 16 seats. The third person totally screwed up his math and kept coming up with different numbers and had 436 votes until he realized at 3:15 AM that he had counted the 25th District of California twice. He came up with 220-215 majority for the GOP.
What does this mean? Be prepared to stay up all night next Tuesday into Wednesday morning, because there are a lot of toss-up races in the State of California, and polls don’t close there until maybe past your normal bedtime on the East Coast. We might not even know which party controls the House on Wednesday morning. What a big win for the news networks if this happens!

Current House Numbers
Republicans 235
Democrats 193
Vacancies 7

As of November 2, Our prediction for the House is.
Republicans 218
Democrats 217
The Democrats gain 24 total seats.

Governors
At the present time, there are 33 Republican Governors, 16 Democratic Governors, and One Independent Governor (Bill Walker of Alaska) that was once a Republican but who cut a deal with the former Democratic candidate to end his campaign and team up with him as his lieutenant governor. Walker supports the Democratic nominee Marc Begich.
There are 14 states that do not hold a Gubernatorial election this year, and it so happens that these 14 states consist of seven Republican and seven Democratic Governors. So, we begin with a 7-7 tie.

Safe for the Republicans: 12 (Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming)

Safe for the Democrats: 7 (California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island)

Subtotal: Republicans 19 Democrats 14

Leaning Republican: 4 (Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire)

Leaning Democratic: 4 (Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico)

Subtotal: Republicans 23 Democrats 18

Toss-up States: 9

Connecticut
Ned Lamont (D)
Bob Stefanowski (R)

Lamont has a slight lead and looks to have about a 75% chance of winning

Florida
Andrew Gillum (D)
Ron DeSantis (R)

Gillum was close to the 50% threshold until it became news that he is under investigation by the FBI for a corruption issue. His rating stopped at 48 and has dropped a percent or two. DeSantis now has the advantage, and more registered Republicans have voted early than registered Democrats. This looks like it is trending to DeSantis.

Iowa
Fred Hubbell (D)
Kim Reynolds (R)
Hubbell has a small lead that is within the margin of error, but he must be considered the favorite to win. We give Hubbell a 55% chance of winning.

Kansas
Laura Kelly (D)
Kris Kobach (R)
Greg Orman (I)

Orman has been polling close to double digits, and he will take away enough votes to decide this election. Kobach is likely to win because Orman will take away enough of Kelly’s support.

Nevada
Steve Sisolak (D)
Adam Laxalt (R)
Ryan Bundy (I)

This is an interesting race with news that can be considered beneficial to both sides. Laxalt had the lead in early October. Even with the Independent Bundy siphoning off some of his support, he appeared to be close to moving this race into the leaning Republican column. Early voting in crucial counties trended toward the Republicans scoring victories in both the Senate and Governor’s races. However, Heller does not have an Independent running in the Senate race. How much of the early voting Republican votes has gone to Bundy?

Then, an eleventh hour negative editorial by members of Laxalt’s family was published in print media and reported on in electronic media, where the family members claim that Laxalt is not a Nevadan but actually an Eastern elitist. Sisolak will pick up some votes here, and this race will go down to the wire.

Ohio
Richard Cordray (D)
Mike DeWine (R)

How about a flat-footed tie in a race? This one looks like a 50-50 race with just a week to go until the election. Early voting started in Ohio more than three weeks ago, and the turnout has been rather heavy, about 55% higher than the 2014 Mid-term election. If we had to bet, we’d give Cordray the very slightest edge, because the incumbent DeWine has not reached 48%, which is a vital number to us when looking at incumbents with one week to go in the race.

Oregon
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler (R)

Brown doesn’t have the 48% minimum as the incumbent, but in this case, her opponent continues to lose a tiny bit of ground. Oregon is usually a Blue State, so we will give the edge to Brown.

South Dakota
Billie Sutton (D)
Kristi Noem (R)

Noem had more name recognition as a member of the House, while Sutton is a state senator. Noem has the advantage here as this is a Red state. Our prediction here is that Noem wins by 4-6%.

Wisconsin
Tony Evers (D)
Scott Walker (R)

Here is a race where the trend line is the strongest factor. Even though the incumbent Walker is one percent below the 48% threshold, his opponent is losing ground by a statistically-relevant number. Evers, a lifelong educator and three-time state public school superintendant was pushing 50% before negative ads hit the airwaves in the Badger State. Walker has since reached 47%, while Evers has fallen under 46%, and the trend line this late in the race tilts this one in favor of Walker.

As of November 2, Our prediction for the Governors’ races are:

Republicans 26
Democrats 23
1 race totally too close to call.

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Kansas	4	Iowa St.
Air Force	Army	3	Army
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	3.5	Eastern Michigan
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wyoming	San Jose St.	3.5	Wyoming
Illinois	Minnesota	0.5	Minnesota
Cincinnati	Navy	3	Cincinnati
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Boston College	Virginia Tech	12	Virginia Tech
Michigan	Penn St.	20.5	Penn St.
Missouri	Florida	4	Florida
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	SMU	3.5	Houston
Northwestern	Notre Dame	1	Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	7	Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Northern Illinois	Akron	19.5	Akron
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	0.5	Middle Tennessee
Kentucky	Georgia	4	Georgia
Rice	UTEP	14	UTEP

 

Money Line	Parlays
3 Teams	@ +172
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Kentucky
Notre Dame	Northwestern
3 Teams	@ +125
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida	Missouri
Minnesota	Illinois
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky
4 Teams	@+180
Must Win	Must Lose
Syracuse	Wake Forest
Army	Air Force
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan
Wyoming	San Jose St.
2 Teams	@+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win	Must Lose
Texas A&M	Auburn
Arizona St.	Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	13	Oakland
Chicago	Buffalo	Pk	Chicago
Tampa Bay	Carolina	3.5	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Kansas City	1.5	Kansas City
Washington	Atlanta	12	Atlanta
Green Bay	New England	4.5	New England

 

13-point Teasers	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	18	Detroit
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	16	Pittsburgh
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	15	L.A. Chargers
Houston	Denver	9	Denver
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	32.5	Over
Minnesota	Detroit	35.5	Over
Cleveland	Kansas City	38.5	Over
Miami	N.Y. Jets	32	Over
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	57.5	Under
Washington	Atlanta	33.5	Over
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	35	Over
New England	Green Bay	66.5	Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.