The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 6, 2016

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:19 am

We have done something we’ve never done before for Super Bowl 50.  Normally, when we run computer simulations, we run them 100 times.  It take about .1 second to run it 100 times.  Last night, after inputting the statistical data and weather forecast, we ran the simulation 10,000 times.  It took much longer, almost .3 second.  We then ran it again subbing Brock Osweiler for Peyton Manning, simulating a Manning injury or inability to perform as acceptable levels.  To be fair, we then ran it again with Cam Newton leaving the game in the second quarter due to injury, just to see how the game was affected.

What we found out is rather obvious:  Newton is much more valuable to the Panthers than Manning is to the Broncos.  With Manning leaving the game at halftime and Osweiler entering in the second half, Denver’s percentage of winning the game fell by just 2.7%.  With Newton leaving the game and unable to play in the second half, Carolina scored an average of just 4.2 points in 10,000 simulations.  Derek Anderson, in relief, could not lead the Panthers to Paydirt against the Bronco defense.

 

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

SUPER BOWL 50

Date: Sunday, February 7, 2016

Time: 3:30 PM Pacific Standard Time (6:30 PM Eastern)

Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Santa Clara is about 40 miles Southeast of Downtown San Francisco in the greater San Jose area.

TV Network: CBS

Announce Team: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson, and Evan Washburn

Also Available: cbssports.com, live streaming for Verizon Wireless customers with Super Bowl app, Xbox One, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Android TV, Chromecast, and Roku).

Canada: CTV

United Kingdom: BBC2  and on radio on BBC Radio 5 Live

Australia: Seven Network and Foxtel

Radio: Westwood One 

Announce Team: Kevin Harlan, Boomer Esiason, Dan Fouts, James Lofton, and Mark Malone.

 

Participants

AFC Champion–Denver Broncos

NFC Champion–Carolina Panthers

 

Las Vegas

Las Vegas Line: Carolina by 5 1/2

Totals: Over or Under 44 1/2

Money Line: Carolina -230, Denver +190

 

Weather Forecast: 69 degrees at kickoff with nominal winds and humidity–near perfect weather!

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Carolina by 7.0

Mean: Carolina by 7.7

Bias: Carolina by 9.0

Average: Carolina by 7.9

Average Score: Carolina 26 Denver 18

 

10,000 Computer Simulations 

Carolina wins 63.47%

Denver wins 36.53%

Average Score: Carolina 24.3  Denver 17.1

Standard Deviation: 9.42

Outlier A: Carolina 41  Denver 13

Outlier B: Denver 30  Carolina 7

 

Simulation 2–Manning out for second half

Carolina wins 65.93%

Denver wins 34.07%

Average Score: Carolina 25.0  Denver 15.9

 

Simulation 3–Newton injured late in Q2

Carolina wins 43.7%

Denver wins 56.3%

Average Score: Denver 20.6  Carolina 16.2

 

February 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks For February 6-7, 2016

Breaking News: The University of Louisville has self-imposed a ban on the postseason for this year.  This means one extra bubble team just benefitted greatly.

 

Here are this weekend’s picks from the top 6 conferences.

 

Remember:

Red= An algorithm based 100% on the Four Factors

White= An algorithm combining the Four Factors and a Least Squares formula on who beat who where and when

Blue= A 100% ratings’ based algorithm concentrating on scoring margin and strength of schedule

All ratings rounded to nearest whole number except when that number is 0.  Then, even if the rating is 1/1000 of a point different, the team 1/1000 of a point better is listed as a 1-point favorite.

Games Scheduled for: Saturday, February 6, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Pittsburgh Virginia -2 1 1
Wake Forest Florida St. -4 -5 -3
Louisville Boston College 24 26 19
Duke North Carolina St. 12 12 10
Virginia Tech Clemson 1 1 -1
Notre Dame North Carolina -3 -1 -5
TCU Kansas -10 -10 -12
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. -4 -4 1
Texas Texas Tech 7 6 8
Kansas St. Oklahoma -7 -3 -7
West Virginia Baylor 8 8 10
Xavier Marquette 15 14 12
Creighton Depaul 12 15 17
Providence Villanova -4 -2 -5
St. John’s Butler -11 -14 -8
Seton Hall Georgetown 6 16 9
Michigan Michigan St. -3 -3 -5
Nebraska Rutgers 16 17 14
Maryland Purdue 5 5 6
Penn St. Indiana -10 -24 -15
California Stanford 8 8 7
Washington Arizona -3 -2 -9
Washington St. Arizona St. -3 -5 -3
Oregon St. Colorado 2 -1 -1
Alabama Missouri 11 10 10
Kentucky Florida 6 4 7
Texas A&M South Carolina 9 7 10
Georgia Auburn 10 13 7
LSU Mississippi St. 8 9 14
Arkansas Tennessee 7 7 8
Ole Miss Vanderbilt -2 -3 2

 

Games Schedule for: Sunday, February 7 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Georgia Tech Miami (Fl.) -3 -2 -5
Illinois Iowa -13 -11 -16
Oregon Utah 11 9 12

 

February 1, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—February 1, 2016

As Ground Hog’s Day approaches, the numbers of potential at-large teams drops into a more manageable number.  Conference tournament action kicks off in less than four weeks, and four dozens of teams, their only chance to make the Big Dance will be to win their conference tournament.

In the past week, a couple of conferences on the verge of having a second team guaranteed to make the Field of 68 became clearer to the 32 Bracketologists that we consider A-1.  The West Coast Conference now looks like a two-bid league for sure with both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s on pace to become locks.  The American Conference is close to being assured of at least two teams with Cincinnati coming on strong and Connecticut looking like they have just enough positives on their resume to get in the Dance.

In the case of the Missouri Valley, Wichita State opened up a three-game lead over rivals Evansville and Southern Illinois, as the Shockers now look like a Sweet 16 team with the entire roster healthy.  San Diego State has lapped the field in the Mountain West, and it looks like the Aztecs will be the lone team to earn a spot in the field if they win the conference tournament as well.

The bubble has been reduced to just 15 teams this week, with the top five on the bubble in the field, and the bottom 10 on the outside, looking in.

Here is this week’s One-bid Conference Review.

America East

Stony Brook (8-0/17-4) made it 13 wins in a row with a 27-point win over contender Maine and a road win against Vermont by double digits.  The Seawolves have enough talent to pull off a Round of 64 upset and cannot be overlooked.  SBU should be no worse than 14-2/23-6 entering the AmEast Conference Tournament.  Only Albany (6-2/17-6) still has a chance to take away the top seed, and we don’t see it happening.  It will be a monumental upset if any team other than the Seawolves win this bid.

 

Atlantic Sun

North Florida (7-0/18-6) has begun to distance themselves from the rest of the league.  Florida Gulf Coast (4-3/13-10) has dropped three games in a row, while Jacksonville (5-2/13-11) has moved into second place.  UNF looks like a 12-2/23-8 team at worst entering A-Sun Tourney play.  The Ospreys have a pair of guards that can shoot opponents out of the game when they get on a hot streak.  Dallas Moore and Beau Beech can knock it in from downtown and get inside the arc for open shorter looks.  They both scored 31 points at LSU earlier in the season and might have upset the Tigers had Ben Simmons not gone for 43 points.

 

Big Sky

Montana (8-1/13-7)  maintained the lead in the Big Sky with a road win over middle-of-the-pack rival Montana State, while top contender Weber State (7-1/15-6) swept the league’s two bottom-feeders.  The top two teams meet Saturday, February 27, in Ogden, with the winner most likely to earn the top-seed.  Unlike in years past, when only the top four, six, or eight teams qualified for the conference tournament, and the top-seed hosted it, the league has switched to a new format where all 12 teams qualify for the tournament, and it will be played in Reno.

 

Big South

This league is one of the most interesting of the low major conferences.  Seven teams are still in contention for the conference tournament.  Winthrop (8-3/16-6) is the hot team, having won eight consecutive games.  The Eagles are tied for first with UNC-Asheville (8-3/15-8).  Five other teams are within two games of first.  The conference tournament is at last place Campbell.

 

Big West

The top two teams both suffered setbacks last week but still remain the teams to beat.  Defending champion UC-Irvine (6-1/17-6) still has the best roster for scaring an #2 or #3 seed, but Hawaii (5-1/16-3) may have the better overall talent.  As usual for the league, the conference tournament is in Anaheim, and that should help Irvine a little.

 

Colonial

This is a five-team race to the conference championship, and any of the five could compete in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament.  Presently, UNC-Wilmington (8-2/16-5) and Hofstra (8-2/16-6) are both enjoying healthy winning streaks, but February presents both schools tough finishing schedules.  The co-leaders face off for the first of two times Thursday night in Hempstead.  The out-of-conference schedules were not strong enough to merit an extra bid from this league, but there are two or even three teams talented enough to compete in the Field of 68.

 

Conference USA

UAB (8-1/18-4) is in the catbird’s seat in C-USA.  The Blazers are close to locking up the top-seed in the conference tournament, and the league has made it easier for them by putting the conference tournament in Birmingham.  Middle Tennessee (7-2/15-6) is firmly in control of the important second spot, where the top two seeds receive byes to the third day of the tournament.  UAB must still visit MTSU on Sunday, February 21.

 

Horizon

Valparaiso (9-1/19-4) is running away with this race.  Wright State (7-3/13-10) defeated Valpo earlier this year, but the Crusaders will have the chance to get revenge at home later this month.  The top two seeds receive byes to the conference tournament semifinal round.  Valpo could earn a 10-seed if they win out, but they will not receive an at-large bid if they are upset in the conference tourney.

 

Ivy

The one holdout when it comes to conference tournaments, the Ivy League still may be faced with a playoff of two or even three teams.  Currently, two teams remained unbeaten in league play.  Yale (4-0/13-5) knocked off previously unbeaten in Ivy play Princeton Saturday night, while Columbia (4-0/15-6) won at Harvard.  The Bulldogs and Lions face off Friday night in New Haven, with a return game in the Big Apple on March 5.  There is a good chance that the two might be forced to play a rubber game on March 12.

 

Metro Atlantic

The top three teams have begun to distance themselves from the rest of the league.  Monmouth (9-2/17-5) has won eight of nine games, including wins over the other two contenders, Siena (8-3/15-7) and Iona (8-3/11-9).  The three contenders each face the other two one more time this year, starting with Monmouth facing Siena in Albany tonight.  The MAAC Tournament will be in Albany again.

 

Mid-American

The MAC returns to its old conference tournament format with the four first round games played on campus sites and the winners joining the four teams receiving byes in Cleveland for the final three rounds.  Even though the league is still divided into divisions, the teams will be seeded one to 12 in the postseason.  In a showdown of division leaders last Tuesday, Akron (6-2/17-4) bested Northern Illinois (5-3/16-5).  Kent State (6-2/15-6) and Central Michigan (5-3/12-9) currently hold on to the other two of the top four seeds, but there are teams behind these four capable of winning the lone automatic bid.

 

Mideastern Athletic

This race tightened since we last reported, as South Carolina State (7-2/12-11) won at league-leader Hampton (8-1/12-8) Saturday.  It was the only regular season meeting between the top two teams, so Hampton does not have to go to Orangeburg.

 

Missouri Valley

Wichita State (10-0/16-5) has opened up a three-game lead over Evansville (7-3/18-5) and Southern Illinois (7-3/18-5), and short of SIU winning out in the regular season, which would include a Wednesday night win over the Shockers, this league will be reduced to one bid if WSU wins the automatic berth.

 

Mountain West

San Diego State (9-0/16-6) is on the verge of doing in the MWC what Wichita State has done in the MVC.  The Aztecs are now 2 1/2 games ahead of number two New Mexico (6-2/13-8).  The conference tournament is in Vegas, but the home team UNLV Rebels are mired in a distant seventh place and in utter disarray, so do not expect the home team to win the tournament or even make it to the semifinals.

 

Northeast

This remains an exciting race, as six teams remain in contention for the conference championship.  Seeding is very important in the NEC, because all conference tournament games are played on the superior-seed home courts.  Saturday, Wagner (7-3/14-7) won at Mount St. Mary’s (7-3/10-13) to become the hot team.  Fairleigh Dickinson (7-3/11-10) will make the 30-mile trek to Staten Island Thursday night to face Wagner.

 

Ohio Valley

Belmont (8-1/16-7) lost its first league game of the season, when the Bruins lost at Tennessee Tech (8-2/16-7).  The Golden Eagles also bested Tennessee State (6-2/15-6) earlier in the week.  TTU must still face the other two contenders on enemy turf this month.  Morehead State (6-3/12-9) is in fourth place in the East Division, but that record would be good for first in the West Division.  The top two seeds earn byes to the semifinal round.

 

Patriot

Bucknell (9-1/12-9) has won nine of their last 10 games, and the Bison hold a 2 1/2 game lead over Navy (6-3/15-7), after the Midshipmen lost twice to bottom division opponents last week.  All conference tournament games are played at the home courts of the higher seeds, and it will be very difficult for anybody to beat Bucknell at Sojka Pavilion.

 

Southern

With non-conference wins over Georgia, Dayton, and Illinois, and a loss at Iowa State, Chattanooga (7-1/18-3) might be capable of advancing past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, if star big guard Casey Jones can return from his ankle injury and play at the same pace prior to the injury.  This team is solid and capable of winning 30 games.  Any other team earning the bid from this league will be a great disappointment, because the Mocs are 10 points better than anybody else when Jones is healthy.

 

Southland

Brad Underwood should be coaching in a Power 5 conference.  The head man of Stephen F. Austin (8-0/15-5), even in his early 50’s, is talented enough to get a big time job and lead a major conference team to a Final Four.  The Lumberjacks face their sternest test of the conference season this Saturday, when they venture to co-leader Houston Baptist (8-0/14-7).  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (7-1/16-4) is close behind but lost at home to SFA over the weekend.

 

Southwestern Athletic

Three teams appear to be above the rest in the league, but it looks like an almost certainty that the winner of the automatic bid will have to turn around on just two or three days off to play a First Four game in Dayton.  Texas Southern (8-0/9-11), Southern (7-2/15-7), and Jackson State (6-2/11-10) are the top three, while Alcorn State (6-3/8-12) is eligible to play in the SWAC Tournament, but ineligible to play in any postseason tournament.  If the Braves were to win the Conference Tournament, the league will then choose the representative.

 

Summit

How about a race with four teams tied for first as they round the final turn and head for home?  Locked in a tight race are South Dakota State (7-2/18-5), IPFW (7-2/18-6), Omaha (7-2/15-8), and IUPUI (7-2/11-13).  The conference tournament remains in Sioux Falls, so the Jackrabbits have the advantage over the other three co-leaders.  For Omaha, this is the Mavericks’ first year as an eligible member of Division 1.  Omaha may actually be the best of the quartet, and they still must face SDSU twice.

 

Sun Belt

Arkansas-Little Rock (9-1/19-2) probably has no chance at an at-large bid, even if they were to win out through the conference tournament semifinals before losing in the championship game.  Even at 29-3, the Trojans would likely be headed to the NIT.  UALR’s chief competition is Louisiana-Lafayette (7-3/11-8).

 

This leaves 46 teams from multiple bid leagues.  Here is a rundown on each conference.

American

Safe

—–

Okay for Now

Cincinnati (6-3/16-6)

Bubble–IN

Connecticut (5-3/15-6)

Bubble–OUT

Tulsa (6-3/14-7)

Temple (6-3/12-8)

 

Atlantic Coast

Safe

North Carolina (8-0/19-2)

Louisville (6-2/17-4)

Virginia (6-3/17-4)

Miami (5-3/16-4)

Okay for Now

Duke (4-4/15-6)

Pittsburgh (6-3/17-4)

Notre Dame (6-3/15-6)

Bubble–IN

Syracuse (5-5/15-8)

Florida State (4-5/14-7)

Bubble–OUT

Clemson (6-3/13-8)

 

Atlantic 10

Safe

Dayton (8-1/18-3)

Okay for Now

Virginia Commonwealth (8-0/16-5)

Bubble–IN

St. Joseph’s (7-1/18-3)

Bubble–OUT

George Washington (5-3/16-5)

 

Big 12

Safe

Oklahoma (6-2/18-2)

Baylor (6-2/17-4)

West Virginia (6-2/17-4)

Kansas (5-3/17-4)

Iowa St. (5-3/16-5)

Okay for Now

Texas (5-3/14-7)

Bubble–IN

Texas Tech (2-6/12-8)

Bubble–OUT

Kansas St. (2-6/13-8)

 

Big East

Safe

Villanova (8-1/18-3)

Xavier (7-2/19-2)

Providence (6-3/18-4)

Okay for Now

Seton Hall (5-4/15-6)

Bubble–IN

Butler (3-6/14-7)

Bubble–OUT

Creighton (5-4/14-8)

 

Big Ten

Safe

Iowa (8-1/17-4)

Maryland (8-2/19-3)

Michigan St. (6-4/19-4)

Purdue (7-3/19-4)

Okay for Now

Michigan (7-2/17-5)

Indiana (8-1/18-4)

Bubble–IN

—–

Bubble–OUT

Wisconsin (5-4/13-9)

 

Pac-12

Safe

Oregon (7-2/18-4)

Arizona (5-4/17-5)

Utah (6-3/17-5)

USC (6-3/17-5)

Okay for Now

Colorado (6-3/17-5)

Bubble–IN

California (4-5/14-8)

Washington (6-3/14-7)

Bubble–OUT

UCLA (4-5/13-9)

Oregon St. (3-6/12-8)

 

Southeastern

Safe

Texas A&M (7-1/18-3)

Kentucky (6-2/16-5)

Okay for Now

Florida (5-3/14-7)

South Carolina (6-2/19-2)

Bubble–IN

LSU (6-2/13-8)

Bubble–OUT

Vanderbilt (4-4/12-9)

Alabama (2-6/11-9)

West Coast

Safe

—–

Okay for Now

St. Mary’s (9-1/18-2)

Bubble–IN

Gonzaga (9-2/17-5)

Bubble–OUT

BYU (7-3/16-7)

 

The 68 Teams Seeded

1 Oklahoma
1 Villanova
1 North Carolina
1 Xavier
2 Iowa
2 Kansas
2 Virginia
2 Texas A&M
3 Maryland
3 Oregon
3 Michigan St.
3 Iowa St.
4 West Virginia
4 Miami (FL.)
4 Louisville
4 Purdue
5 Kentucky
5 Dayton
5 Providence
5 Baylor
6 Arizona
6 Utah
6 USC
6 Duke
7 Texas
7 Michigan
7 Indiana
7 Florida
8 Pittsburgh
8 South Carolina
8 Wichita St.
8 Notre Dame
9 Colorado
9 Virginia Commonwealth
9 St. Mary’s 
9 Cincinnati
10 Valparaiso
10 St. Joseph’s
10 Syracuse
10 California
11 Florida St.
11 Seton Hall
11 Connecticut
11 Washington
11 Gonzaga
12 Butler
12 LSU
12 Texas Tech
12 Monmouth
12 San Diego St.
13 UALR
13 Chattanooga
13 South Dakota St.
13 Stony Brook
14 Akron
14 UNC-Wilmington
14 UC-Irvine
14 UAB
15 Yale
15 Belmont
15 North Florida
15 Stephen F. Austin
16 Winthrop
16 Montana
16 Hampton
16 Wagner
16 Bucknell
16 Texas Southern

Last Four IN:Gonzaga, Butler, LSU, Texas Tech

First Four OUT: Wisconsin, UCLA, George Washington, Clemson

Next Four OUT: Vanderbilt, Kansas St., Oregon St., Creighton

 

 

January 29, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks For January 30-31, 2016

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:05 pm
Games Schedule for: Saturday, January 30, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Syracuse Georgia Tech 6 5 9
Florida St. Clemson 6 5 8
Louisville Virginia 8 7 5
North Carolina St. Miami (Fl.) -5 -5 -3
North Carolina Boston College 28 28 30
Florida West Virginia -1 2 -1
Texas Vanderbilt 5 3 6
Kansas St. Ole Miss 9 10 12
TCU Tennessee -2 -4 -1
Texas A&M Iowa St. 2 4 5
Arkansas Texas Tech 4 3 10
LSU Oklahoma -7 -5 -4
Baylor Georgia 11 6 15
Kansas Kentucky 6 4 8
Auburn Oklahoma St. -3 -1 2
Marquette Butler 1 1 -1
Depaul Xavier -12 -14 -15
Creighton Seton Hall 5 5 2
Georgetown Providence 3 2 1
Penn St. Michigan -6 1 -5
Indiana Minnesota 19 19 23
Purdue Nebraska 13 13 10
USC Washington 9 9 4
Utah Stanford 8 1 6
UCLA Washington St. 10 11 12
Arizona Oregon St. 12 12 14
South Carolina Alabama 8 10 8
Missouri Mississippi St. 1 -1 -2
Games Schedule for: Sunday, January 31, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
St. John’s Villanova -18 -20 -25
Notre Dame Wake Forest 11 11 10
Ohio St. Maryland -4 -3 -5
Iowa Northwestern 18 14 19
Colorado California 3 3 5
Michigan St. Rutgers 26 27 22
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 8 9 7
Illinois Wisconsin -1 -2 -5
Arizona St. Oregon -2 1 2

 

January 25, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—January 25, 2016

There has been little change in the bracketology rankings in the last six days, but there has been a shifting in the seedings.  Additionally, we have moved another mid-major team ahead of some at-large major conference opponents.  This now allows for two 11-seeds and two 12-seeds to appear in First Four games in Dayton.

Let’s start with the One-Big Leagues.  As of today, there are 23 one-bid leagues, but in the case of two or three leagues, if the overwhelming favorite fails to earn the automatic bid, there is a puncher’s chance that these leagues will steal a second bid away from an at-large team.

America East

Stony Brook 6-0/15-4 is beginning to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the league.  The Seawolves mounted a late charge Saturday to knock off second place Albany.  They must make up a game tonight against Maine, and then they play at Vermont on Saturday.  If SB wins both games, the regular season title is almost assured.

 

Atlantic Sun

North Florida (6-0/17-6) took sole possession of first place after Lipscomb upset Florida Gulf Coast (4-1/13-8) thanks to raining threes for 40 minutes.  It will be a big bird fight this Saturday when the Ospreys and Eagles meet at FGCU.

 

Big Sky

The two previously unbeaten teams in conference play lost last week.  Montana (7-1/12-7) and Weber State (5-1/13-6) now have six additional contenders to worry about in a league where just the top 8 of the 12 teams qualify for the conference tournament.  It should be an exciting three days for this league when determining their one automatic bid.

 

Big South

UNC-Asheville (7-2/14-7) lost at High Point (6-3/13-7) in the middle of last week, and now this league is a wide-open race with Winthrop (6-3/14-6), Coastal Carolina (5-4/11-8), Radford (5-4/12-9), and Gardner-Webb (5-4/10-11) all in contention.  This will also be an exciting conference tournament.

 

Big West

It looks like a two-team race between Hawaii (5-0/16-2) and UC-Irvine (5-0/16-5).  The Warriors have won eight games in a row including one over Auburn, while their two losses were on the road by eight at Texas Tech and by three to Oklahoma.  UH should be in the discussion for at-large worthiness.  UCI has won nine of ten games, with the sole loss coming at Kansas.  In that KU game, UCI led for almost all of the first half, as the Jayhawks were hesitant to penetrate the lane against 7 foot 6 inch titan Mamadou Ndiaye and backup center, 7 foot 2 inch Herculean Ioannis Dimakopoulos.

 

Colonial Athletic

This is a tight three-way race at the moment with a group of two or three more capable of getting back into the hunt.  James Madison (6-2/16-5), UNC-Wilmington (6-2/14-5), and Hofstra (6-2/14-6) lead two others by a game and two additional teams by two games.  JMU won at Hofstra in overtime, so the Dukes are the team to beat for now.

 

Conference USA

This race is starting to evolve into a three-team contest.  UAB (7-0/17-3) has won 14 consecutive games, but they have no signature wins and cannot possibly earn an at-large bid with their resume.  Middle Tennessee (6-1/14-5) and Marshall (6-1/10-10) are a game back, but UAB must still play at both contenders plus host Marshall.

 

Horizon

With six consecutive wins, including an 11-point victory over the co-leader, Wright State (7-1/13-8) has moved into the penthouse with Valparaiso (7-1/17-4).  The race will probably come down to the wire, with a February 13 game left at Valpo, the Crusaders are still the slight favorite.  If Valpo wins 25 games and then loses to Wright State in the Horizon League Tournament Championship, there is a very slim chance the Crusaders could sneak an at-large bid.  They have semi-big wins against Oregon State and Belmont.

 

Ivy

The Ivy League is the most prestigious academic group in the nation, but their athletic scheduling is just plain goofy. Six of the eight teams have played two conference games.  In all six cases, the teams played home and home against one other conference team.  Yale (2-0/11-5) swept Brown. Columbia (2-0/13-6) swept Cornell; and Harvard (1-1/9-9) and Dartmouth (1-1/7-9) split their two games.  Princeton (1-0/11-4) appears to be the best in the league, and the Tigers won their lone conference game over Penn.  There are no big wins outside of the league, and there is no conference tournament.  The regular season champ gets the automatic bid, but there is a playoff in any tie for first, even if one team swept the other in the regular season.

 

Metro Atlantic

Monmouth (7-2/15-5) is the only team with multiple quality wins (UCLA, USC, Notre Dame, and Georgetown), but the Hawks are struggling to keep the lead in the MAAC having lost at Manhattan (5-4/8-10) last week.  St. Peter’s (6-2/8-9) had snuck into a tie until losing to fading Iona (7-3/10-9).  Siena (6-3/13-7) has won four of five to move into contention.  While Monmouth has the best chance of becoming a Sweet 16 darling, they have not wrapped up a bid and will most likely get the shaft if they do not earn the automatic bid.

 

Mid-American

The MAC is the final remaining conference to divide its teams into basketball divisions.  There are two teams in both divisions that look capable of winning an opening round NCAA Tournament game, but this league will not receive multiple bids.  In the four-way cat fight for the lone bid are Kent State (5-1/14-5) and Akron (4-2/15-4) from the East and Northern Illinois (5-1/16-3) and Ball State (4-2/13-6) from the West.  Akron has the best out-of-conference success with wins over Arkansas, Marshall, and Iona.

 

Mideastern Athletic

Hampton (7-0/11-7) has opened up a game and a half lead over Norfolk State (5-1/9-12) and a 2 1/2 game lead over Howard (3-1/9-10).  If the Pirates win the bid, the MEAC might avoid a First Four game in Dayton, but that is still not definite.

 

Missouri Valley

This is the one of two leagues where the number of bids will move from one to two if the one behemoth loses in the MVC Tournament.  Wichita State (8-0/14-5) is going to be in the Big Dance whether it is an automatic or at-large invitation.  If the Shockers win Arch Madness, then the MVC is almost guaranteed to be a one-bid league.  Southern Illinois (7-1/18-3) and Evansville (6-2/17-4) look like they have records deserving of at-large contention, but SIU has no resume-building win, while the Purple Aces can boast of wins over Belmont and UC-Irvine, which is not going to get them in the Dance without having a guaranteed ticket.

 

Mountain West

This is the other league where an upset in the conference tournament could see a second bid awarded to the league.  San Diego State (7-0/14-6) is the class of the league again, but the Aztecs cannot count on a definite at-large invitation if they come up short in the conference tourney.  SDSU has a win over Cal, when the Bears were ranked in the top 15, but UC has fallen out of the rankings.  The Aztecs have losses to power teams in Utah, West Virginia, and Kansas.  Boise State (6-1/15-5) has a win over Oregon as well as non-embarrassing losses to Michigan State and Arizona twice.  The Broncos lost at home to SDSU.

 

Northeast

Eight of the Ten teams can still win the conference title, and any of the eight could win the conference tournament.  Mount St. Mary’s (6-2/9-12) leads, but Wagner (5-3/12-7) would probably give the conference a better chance to avoid Dayton and a First Four game.

 

Ohio Valley

Belmont (7-0/15-6) sprinted to a 20+ – point lead over Tennessee State (5-1/14-5) in their first meeting of the season yesterday, before withstanding a late Tiger rally to make it close.  One of these two Nashville rivals should get the automatic bid.

 

Patriot

This looks like a three-team race for the conference title, and the winner hosts the conference tournament, so it is important to win the regular season title.  Bucknell (7-1/10-9) is the closest thing to a dynasty team in this league.  Navy (6-1/15-5) and Colgate (6-2/10-9) are the two others contending for first.

 

Southern

Chattanooga (6-1/17-3) has wins over Georgia and Dayton as well as a win over leading contender East Tennessee (6-1/13-7).  Mercer (4-3/14-6) still hosts the co-leaders, so the Bears have a chance.

 

Southland

This league is quickly improving each year, and the time may come when the SLC challenges the Missouri Valley for Mid-Major supremacy.  Houston Baptist (7-0/12-7) has won 10 of 11 games, and Texas A&M-Corpus Christie (6-0/15-3) has won 14 of 15 games but neither the Huskies nor the Islanders have yet to face multiple time defending champ Stephen F. Austin (6-0/13-5).  Incarnate Word (4-1/9-7) is ineligible for the bid, but the Cardinals may have a say in who does, by changing a seed or two.

 

Southwestern Athletic

The SWAC has been a regular in the First Four in recent years.  It looks very possible like the league champ will be headed to Dayton again this year.  Texas Southern (6-0/7-11).  Southern (5-2/13-7) and Jackson State (5-2/10-10) are the top two contenders.  As has been the case in the SWAC in recent years, one of the better league teams, Alcorn State (5-2/7-11) is not eligible for the tournament due to low APR scores.

 

Summit

Maybe it is Peyton Manning’s year, because Omaha 6-1/14-7) leads the league.  The Mavericks will have to hold off a fiesty trio of competitors in South Dakota State (5-2/16-5), IPFW (5-2/16-6), and IUPUI (5-2/9-13).  Our money is on SDSU to win the conference tournament.  The Jackrabbits have the best program in the league.

 

Sun Belt

What will it take for Arkansas-Little Rock (7-1/17-2) to get some respect?  The Trojans won at San Diego State and Tulsa in the pre-conference schedule and have run out to a game and a half lead in the league?  UALR could make it to the Dance with 30 wins and still be a prohibitive underdog in their first game due to lower than deserved seeding.  Texas-Arlington (5-2/14-4) is the chief contender.

 

Western Athletic

The hands-down best team in the league in the last three or four seasons won’t get the opportunity to play for a spot in the Dance.  Grand Canyon (5-0/18-2) is ineligible for a couple more years.  New Mexico State (5-1/13-8) and Cal State Bakersfield (4-1/14-6) are the next best two in line.

 

The League In The Cracks

American Athletic

With SMU ineligible for the tournament, the AAC could very well find itself with just one bid this year, but there are five teams capable of earning at-large bids as of now.  We cannot put a second AAC team in this week’s Field, but we cannot place the league with the definite one-bid only conferences.

Tulsa (5-2/13-6) and Temple (5-2/11-7) lead Connecticut (4-2/14-5) and Central Florida (4-2/10-7) by a half game with Cincinnati (5-3/15-6) lurking close behind.  Memphis (3-3/12-7) is still alive and capable of winning the automatic bid.  Temple upset previously unbeaten SMU yesterday.

 

The Multi-Bid Leagues

We moved one league from possible second bid to definite second bid this week.  The West Coast Conference went from one and maybe another to two definite as of now.

Atlantic Coast

Safe

North Carolina (7-0/18-2)

Louisville (5-1/16-3)

Pittsburgh (5-2/16-3)

Miami (4-2/15-3)

Duke (4-3/15-5)

Virginia (4-3/15-4)

Okay for Now

Notre Dame (5-2/14-5)

Bubble–IN

Syracuse (3-5/13-8)

Bubble–OUT

Clemson (5-2/12-7)

Florida St. (2-5/12-7)

 

Atlantic 10

Safe

Dayton (6-1/16-3)

Okay for Now

—–

Bubble–IN

Virginia Commonwealth (7-0/15-5)

St. Joseph’s (5-1/16-3)

George Washington (4-2/15-4)

Bubble–OUT

Davidon (3-3/11-6)

 

Big 12

Safe

Oklahoma (5-2/16-2)

Kansas (5-2/16-3)

West Virginia (5-2/16-3)

Iowa St. (4-3/15-4)

Baylor (5-2/15-4)

Okay for Now

Texas (4-3/12-7)

Bubble–IN

Texas Tech (2-5/12-6)

Bubble–OUT

Kansas St. (2-5/12-7)

 

Big East

Safe

Villanova (7-1/17-3)

Xavier (5-2/17-2)

Okay for Now

Providence (4-2/17-3)

Bubble–IN

Seton Hall (3-4/13-6)

Butler (2-5/13-6)

Bubble–OUT

Creighton (5-2/14-6)

Georgetown (5-2/12-8)

 

Big Ten

Safe

Iowa (7-0/16-3)

Indiana (7-0/17-3)

Maryland (6-2/17-3)

Michigan (5-2/15-5)

Purdue (5-3/17-4)

Michigan St. (4-4/17-4)

Okay for Now

—–

Bubble–IN

—–

Bubble–OUT

Ohio St. (4-3/12-8)

 

Pac-12

Safe

Oregon (5-2/16-4)

Arizona (4-3/16-4)

USC (4-3/15-5)

Okay for Now

Utah (4-3/15-5)

Colorado (4-3/15-5)

Bubble–IN

Washington (5-2/13-6)

California (4-3/14-6)

UCLA (3-4/12-8)

Bubble–OUT

Stanford (4-3/11-7)

Oregon St. (3-4/12-6)

 

Southeastern

Safe

Texas A&M (7-0/17-2)

Kentucky (5-2/15-4)

Okay for Now

South Carolina (4-2/17-2)

Florida (5-2/13-6)

Bubble–IN

—–

Bubble–OUT

LSU (5-2/12-7)

Georgia (4-3/11-6)

Vanderbilt (3-4/11-8)

Ole Miss (2-5/12-7)

Alabama (1-5/10-8)

 

West Coast

Safe

—–

Okay for Now

St. Mary’s (8-1/17-2)

Bubble–IN

Gonzaga (7-2/15-5)

Bubble–OUT

—–

 

The Field of 68 Seeded

# Team
1 Oklahoma
1 North Carolina
1 Villanova
1 Kansas
2 Iowa
2 Xavier
2 Texas A&M
2 Virginia
3 West Virginia
3 Michigan St.
3 Iowa St.
3 Oregon
4 Maryland
4 Miami (FL.)
4 Louisville
4 Purdue
5 Arizona
5 Kentucky
5 Dayton
5 Duke
6 USC
6 Providence
6 Baylor
6 Indiana
7 Pittsburgh
7 Notre Dame
7 Michigan
7 Texas
8 Utah
8 Florida
8 South Carolina
8 Wichita St.
9 Colorado
9 St. Mary’s
9 California
9 Connecticut
10 George Washington
10 VCU
10 Butler
10 Seton Hall
11 St. Joseph’s
11 Texas Tech
11 Washington
11 Gonzaga
11 Valparaiso
12 Syracuse
12 UCLA
12 Monmouth
12 San Diego St.
12 UALR
13 Chattanooga
13 Hawaii
13 UAB
13 Stony Brook
14 James Madison
14 Northern Illinois
14 Omaha
14 Princeton
15 Belmont
15 Texas A&M-CC
15 North Florida
15 Montana
16 UNC-Asheville
16 New Mexico St.
16 Bucknell
16 Hampton
16 Wagner
16 Texas Southern

Last 4 IN–First Four Games in Dayton

Syracuse vs. UCLA

Gonzaga vs. Washington

First 4 OUT

Cincinnati

Florida St.

LSU

Creighton

Next 4 OUT

Stanford

Boise St.

Evansville

Vanderbilt

 

 

 

January 22, 2016

PiRate Ratings–NFL Conference Championships–Unable to publish

Filed under: Pro Football — piratings @ 10:18 am

We are sorry, but due to inclement weather, we were unable to gain access to the university computer today to perform the computer simulations of the two Conference Championship Games.

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks For January 23-24, 2016

Filed under: College Basketball — piratings @ 10:15 am

Starting today, we add another conference to our list, as we now cover the Big East Conference.  It makes since because the league has four teams in the top 25.

Before getting to our picks this week, we must thank all of you that messaged us through our companion site, http://www.piratings.webs.com , this week telling us how much you liked our initial bracketology report of the season.  Even though this site is strictly football-related, you can always message us through the contact info there.  We try to answer all of the messages there, but it may take a little time.  As of Friday morning, we had 46 new messages, and we try to do more than just say a generic thank you.  Give us a little time, and we will answer your individual questions.

 

However, due to the wishes of most of our contributors, we cannot answer whether a certain bracketology expert is included in the list.  Some of these guys supply their knowledge to commercial sites and/or charge for their services.  We do not include the most famous bracketologists in this list.  We include the most accurate guys instead.

 

Enjoy the weekend of games, and if you are snowed in down in the South or on the East Coast, just be glad you get to see ground after this passes.  There are parts of the country, where snow stays on the ground for close to 3 consecutive months without melting.  Try living above the 45th parallel in the Midwest.

Note: Some games may be postponed due to inclement weather.  As of this writing, the Villanova-Providence game has been moved from Saturday to Sunday.

Games Schedule for: Saturday, January 23, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Notre Dame Boston College 19 21 21
Miami (Fla.) Wake Forest 16 15 11
North Carolina St. Duke -4 -5 -4
Florida St. Pittsburgh 6 2 3
Georgia Tech Louisville -6 -4 -11
Baylor Oklahoma -2 -1 -1
Texas Tech West Virginia -3 -1 -4
Kansas Texas 11 8 9
TCU Iowa St. -11 -10 -7
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. 5 8 3
Connecticut Georgetown 6 6 2
Xavier Seton Hall 9 9 9
Creighton Butler 4 3 -1
St. John’s Marquette -5 -9 -4
Indiana Northwestern 10 9 11
Nebraska Michigan 1 1 -2
Michigan St. Maryland 4 3 1
Minnesota Illinois -2 -1 1
Oregon UCLA 8 7 9
California Arizona -2 1 4
Washington St. Colorado -3 -6 -2
Stanford Arizona St. 2 3 3
Tennessee South Carolina -1 -1 -5
Alabama LSU 1 1 -3
Mississippi St. Ole Miss 3 3 -1
Texas A&M Missouri 20 18 24
Kentucky Vanderbilt 6 4 8
Georgia Arkansas 1 3 4
Florida Auburn 13 14 11

 

Games Schedule for: Sunday, January 24, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Iowa Purdue 7 4 10
Villanova Providence 13 10 12
Oregon St. USC -5 -4 -3
Virginia Tech North Carolina -10 -8 -9
Virginia Syracuse 9 10 7
Washington Utah 2 3 4

January 19, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—January 19, 2016

Last year, the PiRate Ratings began compiling a list of the 32 most accurate bracketology gurus and making a weekly composite ranking.  Unfortunately, at some point in the season, a couple of the bracketologists stopped updating their ratings daily or stopped altogether.  This year, we are going to go with the number that satisfactorily update their ratings after Monday or Tuesday night’s games have been played.

We begin 29 bracketology experts today.  They have decided on the 68 teams currently in line to get into the NCAA Tournament based on their resumes as of last night’s games.  So, Oklahoma’s loss to Iowa State and Duke’s home loss to Syracuse are included, as is the removal of Texas-Arlington from the potential at-large list after their upset loss.

We will break it down by conference and then show you our seeds.  We do not show a bracket, because it is ridiculous to try to select where each team will be placed to avoid early rematches or games between teams in the same conference.  We strictly list teams by the composite scores, so the top #5 seed in the list is the highest-rated #5 seed and so on.

For the one-bid leagues, we are going with the current leader in the standings.  If there are ties, then we break the tie by going with the team with the higher PiRate Rating.

Until we get closer to conference tournament play, we are only going to include the top 8 teams on The Bubble that are out of the tournament as of today, so that means we will show you 76 total teams.  There are upwards of 100 extra teams that could possibly play themselves into contention, so until that list is whittled down to about 12-15 teams, we are sticking with just 76.

 

One-Bid Conferences

America East: Stony Brook (5-0/14-4)   The Seawolves are riding a 10-game winning streak but with no impressive wins.  An overtime loss at Vanderbilt and a 14-point win over Princeton will keep Stony Brook out of a 15 or 16 seed should they qualify

Atlantic Sun: North Florida (4-0/15-6)  Five of the Osprey’s six losses were to teams that are contending for an NCAA Tournament bid.  UNF will have to hold off a challenge from Florida Gulf Coast, and the two rivals face off on consecutive Saturdays (J.30 and F.6).

Big Sky: Montana (6-0/11-6)  The Grizzlies hold a half-game lead over Weber State, and we expect the Wildcats to beat Montana in their lone meeting on February 25 in Ogden.

Big South: UNC-Asheville (6-1/13-6)  The Bulldogs have one impressive win at Georgetown, but a weak conference slate may doom them to a 15 or 16 seed.  Any other team winning this bid will almost assuredly risk having to play in the First Four.

Big West: Hawaii (4-0/15-2)  The Warriors are oh so close to contending for an at-large berth at this point, with their two losses coming to Texas Tech in Lubbock and against Oklahoma on the Island, games in which Hawaii led in the second half.  The Warriors face stiff competition from UC-Irvine, also undefeated in conference play.  The two teams square off twice in eight days in Mid-February.

Colonial: Northeastern (4-2/12-7)  There are six teams tied for first at 4-2 in this league, and the only reason we selected the Huskies over the other five is that they have a win at Miami of Florida.  Any of eight teams could win the league’s automatic bid.  If you have access to CAA games, tune in, because they are all exciting contests between equally talented teams.

Conference USA: UAB (5-0/15-3)  The Blazers are hot having won 12 in a row, but none of the dozen are quality wins.  UAB could easily top 25 wins, but a 13-seed is the best they can achieve.

Horizon: Valparaiso (6-0/16-3)  We are going to have to closely monitor this league.  Valpo could run the table and then if upset in the conference tournament, they could sneak into the field as an at-large team.  For now, the Crusaders look unstoppable in the league, so we are going to keep this a definite one-bid league.

Ivy: Princeton (1-0/10-4)  Princeton will face a tough challenge from Columbia, Harvard, and Yale, and there could easily be a multiple-team tie forcing a playoff.  In the Ivy, there is a playoff even if one team swept the other.  And because the Ivy plays Friday night/Saturday night games, it is difficult for one team to run the table having to play three conference road games on Saturday nights after playing a road game on Friday night.

Mid-American: Northern Illinois (3-1/14-3)  The Huskies are one of five or six teams capable of winning the automatic bid from the MAC.  This league appears to be on a slight uptick, but still there are no major quality wins outside of league play, and thus it remains a one-bid league.

Metro Atlantic: Monmouth (6-1/14-4)  Former North Carolina star King Rice has the Hawks in line to move up above a #12 seed should they continue to win.  Monmouth has knocked off UCLA, USC, Notre Dame, and Georgetown, plus they own a road win over top MAAC contender Iona.  Theatrics aside from the wacky bench-warmers, the Hawks will be the darling mid-major if they arrive to the Dance with 25 wins.

Mid-Eastern Athletic: Hampton (6-0/10-7)  The PiRates casually cheer for the Pirates for obvious reasons, and Hampton is not only leading the MEAC, they are the only team with a winning record overall and the only MEAC team capable of avoiding a First Four game.

Northeast: Mount St. Mary’s (5-1/8-11)  The Mountaineers started 0-6 against a monstrous schedule for a low-major conference team and then was just 3-10 when conference play began.  MSM has a one game lead over three competitors, all of which could pass the Mounties in the regular season.  It looks like a definite 16-seed here.

Ohio Valley: Belmont (5-0/13-6)  The Bruins are the perpetual pick out of this league, but they face stiff competition from crosstown rival Tennessee State, also 5-0 in league play.  We chose Belmont on the basis of wins over Marquette and Valpo, but former Wichita State assistant Dana Ford will receive national coach of the year support if he can take TSU from 5-26 in 2015 to the NCAA Tournament in 2016.

Patriot: Navy (5-1/14-5)  The Midshipmen will be a headache for any one-seed opponent that faces them in the Round of 64 game.  They are the 1980’s and 90’s version of Princeton, holding onto the ball for 25-29 seconds on most possessions and playing tough team defense.  Bucknell and Colgate are talented enough to win this bid.

Southern: Chattanooga (5-1/16-3)  This is a team capable of sneaking into the Sweet 16.  The Mocs have won at Georgia and Dayton as well as over Illinois in a “neutral” game at Springfield, IL.  One of their three losses was at Iowa State in a game where the Cyclones could not miss from three.  If they keep winning, UC could move up to a 12-seed.

Southland: Stephen F. Austin (4-0/12-5)  The Lumberjacks are not as talented as they have been the previous two seasons, but they are still the best in the Southland.  Houston Baptist and Texas A&M-Corpus Christie are also unbeaten in conference play.

Southwest Athletic: Texas Southern (5-0/6-11)  The 1-11 out-of-conference record is a bit deceiving, because the Tigers played by far the most difficult slate of any SWAC teams, playing 10 road games and one neutral site game with just one home game.  Southern and Jackson State are 4-2 (as is Alcorn State who is not eligible).

Summit: Indiana-Purdue Ft. Wayne (4-1/15-5)  The Mastodons have no bad losses but no big wins.  In IPFW’s favor is the fact that all league contenders must still come to Ft. Wayne, while The Mastodons only have one tough road game left in league play.

Sun Belt: Arkansas-Little Rock (5-1/15-2)  UALR was looking like a contender for a 10 or 11-seed before losing to Arkansas State.  The Trojans have road wins against San Diego State, Tulsa, and DePaul with one loss at Texas Tech.  UT-Arlington has the potential to get into an at-large conversation having a resume that includes road wins over Ohio State, Memphis, and UTEP with an overtime loss at Texas.

Western Athletic: Cal State-Bakersfield (3-0/13-5)  The Roadrunners may be the second best WAC team, but Grand Canyon is not yet eligible, as they are in their final transition year.  CSUB will be a contender for a First Four game and a definite 16-seed as of now.

Possible One-Bid Leagues

These conferences currently have strong contenders for a second team to earn a bid or two definite bids as of now, but they are shaky enough to move back to just one team.

American Athletic: Memphis (3-1/12-5)  SMU is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament and could become the first team to go undefeated in the regular season and not make the Dance since North Carolina State in 1973.  Memphis is currently the top eligible team, but at least one more team could make it from the AAC.  Connecticut and Cincinnati figure to be the leading contenders, but two or three others are still in the mix.

Missouri Valley: Wichita State (6-0/12-5)  As of today, the Shockers are the only MVC team we have in the Dance, but if another team wins the automatic bid, we expect WSU to get an at-large bid.  Evansville and Southern Illinois also hold somewhat better than slim chances to emerge as at-large candidates.

Mountain West: San Diego State (5-0/12-6)  The Aztecs took control of the conference race with an impressive win at Boise State.  With four top 25 opponents, with a win over Oregon, on their schedule so far, Boise State can get into the at-large picture if the Broncos do not earn the automatic bid.

West Coast: St. Mary’s (6-1/15-2) and Gonzaga (6-1/14-4)  As of now, both WCC dynasty teams appear to be in good shape; one will earn the automatic bid, and one will earn the at-large bid.

 

Multiple Bid Leagues

Atlantic Coast: 8 Bids

Solid

North Carolina (5-0/16-2)

Pittsburgh (4-1/15-2)

Louisville (3-1/14-3)

Notre Dame (3-2/12-5)

Duke (3-3/14-5)

Miami (FL) (2-2/13-3)

Contending for final 2 Bids

Clemson (5-1/12-6)

Virginia Tech (4-1/12-6)

Syracuse (3-4/13-7)

Virginia (2-3/13-4)

Florida St. (2-3/12-5)

 

Atlantic 10: 4 Bids

Solid

Virginia Commonwealth (5-0/13-5)

Dayton (4-1/14-3)

St. Joseph’s (4-1/14-3)

Contending for 1 Bid

St. Bonaventure (4-1/12-4)

George Washington (3-2/14-4)

Davidson (3-2/11-5)

 

Big 12: 7 Bids

Kansas (4-1/15-2)

West Virginia (4-1/15-2)

Baylor (4-1/14-3)

Oklahoma (4-2/15-2)

Texas (3-2/11-6)

Iowa St. (3-3/14-4)

Texas Tech (2-4/12-5)

Texas Tech is subject to be removed if they continue to lose two out of three conference games.

 

Big East: 5 Bids

Solid

Villanova (6-0/16-2)

Xavier (4-1/16-1)

Contending for 3 Bids

Creighton (4-2/13-6)

Georgetown (4-2/11-7)

Providence (3-2/15-3)

Seton Hall (3-2/13-4)

Butler (2-3/13-4)

 

Big Ten: 6 Bids

Solid

Indiana (5-0/15-3)

Iowa (5-0/14-3)

Maryland (5-1/16-2)

Purdue (4-2/16-3)

Michigan (3-2/13-5)

Michigan St. (3-3/16-3)

Ohio State (4-2/12-7), Northwestern (3-3/14-4), and Nebraska (3-3/11-8) are in contention but not in the field at this time.

 

Pac-12: 8 Bids

Solid

USC (4-1/15-3)

Arizona (3-2/15-3)

Colorado (3-2/14-4)

Oregon (3-2/14-4)

Contending for 4 Bids

Washington (4-1/12-5)

Stanford (3-2/10-6)

Utah (2-3/13-5)

Oregon St. (2-3/11-5)

California (2-3/12-6)

UCLA (2-3/11-7)

 

Southeastern: 4 Bids

Solid

Texas A&M (5-0/15-2)

South Carolina (3-1/16-1)

Kentucky (3-2/13-4)

Contending for 1 Bid

LSU (4-1/11-6)

Florida (3-2/11-6)

 

Here is how the 29 Bracketology experts bracketed the field

Seed Team
1 Oklahoma
1 Kansas
1 Villanova
1 Xavier
2 North Carolina
2 Iowa
2 West Virginia
2 Texas A&M
3 Michigan St.
3 Maryland
3 Virginia
3 Miami (FL.)
4 Iowa St.
4 Arizona
4 USC
4 Duke
5 Purdue
5 Oregon
5 Kentucky
5 Dayton
6 Pittsburgh
6 Louisville
6 Providence
6 South Carolina
7 Baylor
7 Utah
7 Butler
7 Indiana
8 Colorado
8 Michigan
8 Notre Dame
8 Florida
9 Valparaiso
9 Wichita St.
9 Texas
9 St. Mary’s (CA)
10 Monmouth
10 George Washington
10 California
10 Memphis
11 Seton Hall
11 Texas Tech
11 St. Joseph’s
11 Gonzaga
11 Virginia Commonwealth
12 Arkansas-Little Rock
12 San Diego St.
12 Oregon St.
12 UCLA
12 Florida St.
13 Chattanooga
13 Hawaii
13 Northeastern
13 UAB
14 Indiana-Purdue Ft. Wayne
14 Stony Brook
14 Northern Illinois
14 Princeton
15 Belmont
15 North Florida
15 Stephen F. Austin
15 Montana
16 UNC-Asheville
16 CSU Bakersfield
16 Navy
16 Hampton
16 Mount St. Mary’s
16 Texas Southern

 

Last Four In

Florida St.

UCLA

Oregon St.

Virginia Commonwealth

First Four Out

Washington
Clemson
Alabama
Connecticut

Next Four Out

Cincinnati
Stanford
Evansville
Boise St.

 

 

January 18, 2016

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:07 pm

Note: We will have computer simulations for the two Conference Championship games on Friday.

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: Conference Championships      
Date of Games: 24-Jan    
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Denver New England -0.1 0.1 1.2
Carolina Arizona 2.5 3.3 3.8

January 15, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks for January 16-17, 2016

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:55 am

This week, we expand our selections to include both Saturday and Sunday games of games from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.

Beginning next week, we will commence with our 32 Bracketologists consensus as there have now been enough games to actually put some weight behind the teams in the field, on the bubble, and out of the field.

The Red Rating uses an algorithm based on the Four Factors of basketball.

The White Rating incorporates a “least squares” principle to the Four Factors.

The Blue Rating is a separate statistics and strength of schedule approach similar to our PiRate Bias Ratings in football.

Games Schedule for: Saturday, January 16, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 9 9 4
Wake Forest Syracuse 1 1 3
North Carolina North Carolina St. 18 15 21
Pittsburgh Boston College 19 23 19
Duke Notre Dame 10 9 10
Clemson Miami (Fla.) -5 -5 3
Kansas TCU 23 20 26
Texas Tech Baylor -1 5 2
Oklahoma West Virginia 7 6 -2
Kansas St. Iowa St. -1 2 2
Texas Oklahoma St. 6 8 5
Maryland Ohio St. 12 11 8
Minnesota Indiana -13 -13 -9
Illinois Nebraska 3 3 5
Northwestern Penn St. 10 11 9
Arizona St. Washington 6 6 2
Arizona Washington St. 16 16 17
South Carolina Missouri 15 15 11
Georgia Texas A&M -1 -1 -4
Mississippi St. Tennessee 1 -1 3
Auburn Kentucky -10 -10 -14
Vanderbilt Alabama 9 12 5
Ole Miss Florida 1 -3 3
LSU Arkansas 3 3 6
Games Schedule for: Sunday, January 17, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Florida St. Virginia -2 -3 -3
Wisconsin Michigan St. -6 -4 -9
Iowa Michigan 12 10 8
Colorado Oregon -1 2 4
Utah Oregon St. 4 3 6

 

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