The Pi-Rate Ratings

April 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings Championship Game Spread

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
GonzagaBaylor6.3

This concludes the PiRate Ratings coverage of college and professional sports until the 2021-2022 football season. We are headed out to sea for some R&R for the summer and hope to return with our preseason football coverage in August.

In the meantime, please give our sister site a look if you are into tabletop baseball gaming. Our game, Sabertooth Baseball, is getting rave reviews from patrons, some of whom own 20 different games. They say our game has more options than any other game marketed.

Check Out Sabertooth Baseball: https://sabertoothbaseball.wordpress.com

April 2, 2021

PiRate Ratings Final Four Preview

National Semifinals Spreads

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
GonzagaUCLA14.7
BaylorHouston1.4

PiRate Bracketnomics

Nearly three weeks ago, we excitedly released our 2021 Bracketnomics report believing we were on top of the NCAA Tournament and knowing which teams were the true contenders and which were the pretenders. We came up with our Final Four teams, and poof, two of them lost before the Sweet 16.

We gave you a list of Gonzaga, Illinois, and Michigan, qualifying Michigan based on whether Isaiah Livers could return and play after the Sweet 16, which he was unable to do. Next, we gave you a list of teams that had a strong resume that should contend for the Final 4, of which Houston was one of those teams. Finally, we gave you the list of the handful of teams that had Final 4-worthy resumes but not as strong as the half-dozen just above. In that group was Baylor.

Three of the remaining four teams meet the PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics criteria to win a national championship. As for UCLA, they are an outlier with very little national championship statistical criteria. Even though we selected a couple of wrong championship-worthy teams, three of the four Final Four teams meet the Bracketnomics criteria we endorse. If Gonzaga, Houston, or Baylor win the title, then the Bracketnomics fundamentals will have proven valid for the season. Let’s look at the Semifinal Games and show you the Bracketnomics Criteria in total.

Efficiency Ratings

93% of all national champions since 1990 have finished in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and in the top 20 in defensive efficiency.

Offensive Efficiency Ratings

Baylor3
Gonzaga1
Houston7
UCLA13

Baylor, Gonzaga, and Houston qualify here. UCLA is just outside the criteria range.

Defensive Efficiency Ratings

Baylor28
Gonzaga5
Houston8
UCLA45

Gonzaga and Houston qualify here. Baylor semi-qualifies, because the 6.7% of the teams that won the national title that didn’t meet the defensive efficiency criterion (two times in 30 years), their defensive efficiency was in the top 40. UCLA once again does not qualify here. Because efficiency is the most important criterion, UCLA is not a Bracketnomics’ qualifier. If the Bruins win the title, they crush this system.

Strength of Schedule

All national champions in the last 30+ years have had a strength of schedule better than 5 points per game above average, or to clarify it, a score of 55.0 or better in our PiRate formula.

Final 4 SOS

Baylor59.3
Gonzaga59.2
Houston56.9
UCLA61.4

All four teams qualify with this criterion. The belief that Gonzaga did not play a hard enough schedule is 100% hogwash. Gonzaga defeated Virgina, Iowa, and West Virginia in addition to three wins over BYU. Wins over USC, Creighton, and Oklahoma by 17.7 points per game totally destroys the theory that the Bulldogs are not as strong as the best Power Conference teams.

PiRate R + T Ratings

If this is your first look at our site, the R+T rating is our creation. It measures a team’s ability and likelihood of enjoying a scoring run. Usually, NCAA Tournament games are decided when one team goes on a scoring run to secure the victory or to come from behind to win. This rating looks at the reasons why a team gets that spurt in a game. It happens with extra rebounding, steals, avoiding steals on offense, and turnovers. Because steals are more valuable than all other turnovers, they get their own piece in the formula.

R + T Rating = R + (.5S) + (6 – Opp. S) + T where R = Rebound Margin, S = Steals, and T = Turnover Margin

Historically, national champions are in the top quadrant in R+T ratings. In most years, the top quadrant begins around 12.5 to 15. In this Covid basketball season, the top quadrant line is 11.8 and the top 10% is 14.5.

Final 4 R+T

Baylor14.2
Gonzaga14.7
Houston18.3
UCLA8.3

Once again, Baylor, Gonzaga, and Houston qualify with this criterion, while UCLA does not. Houston’s R+T is typical of a team that puts a game away quickly when they get a spurt, but when you factor tougher schedules for Baylor and Gonzaga, the top three are basically equal, while UCLA is still not qualified.

Upperclassman Leadership

In 90% of the past 30 years, the national champion had multple upperclassmen (juniors & seniors) among their top eight players. When the game is on the line, an experienced 22-year old player is an adult that can handle pressure. An 18-year old freshman is still a teenager.

Final 4 Leaders

TeamSRJR
Baylor24
Gonzaga22
Houston32
UCLA04

All four teams have experienced leadership. UCLA has no seniors, and the loss of their one senior early in the season may be the only reason why the Bruins didn’t get to this point with a 26-4 record rather than 22-9. Houston having three seniors may have a unique advantage this year, since nobody received NCAA Tournament experience last year.

The Clutch Factor

There are going to be possessions in the Big Dance where a team must rely on a player or players to put the load on their shoulders and pick up the crucial basket, rebound, or defensive stop. Think of Reggie Jackson in October. All Final Four teams have had a Mr. March on their roster. Even surprise teams like Virginia Commonwealth and George Mason in this century have had at least one Mr. March on their roster. It must be close to impossible to get this far without that guy or guys. So, this factor is obvious for all four teams remaining.

Baylor3
Gonzaga3
Houston1
UCLA1

Baylor and Gonzaga have three Mr. March’s (Mr. April’s) on their roster. It is harder to stop three than it is one, but if the one’s are more like Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, or MJ, then the one’s can trump the threes. Unfortunately for Houston and UCLA, Baylor and Gonzaga’s three go-to guys are the players closest to the superstars. Here is where we begin to really separate the superior teams from the really good teams.

Three-point Percentage

This is one of two areas where we at the PiRate Ratings were late in endorsing. The reason for this is that prior to about 2015, college basketball teams were not up to snuff on analytics. Once mathematics became a large part of basketball strategy, the game experienced an evolution to where most teams now attempt to shoot the highest percentage two-point shots along with open three-point shots. All that matters is finding a 60% probable two-point shot and a 40% probable three-point shot. If a team can hit 37% from behind the arc, they must hit better than 55.5% from inside the arc to make two-point shooting worthwhile, and the same goes for holding the opponent below those numbers.

The key in this criterion is to have a team three-point percentage of 37.0 or better. Going 3 for 8 is just as acceptable as going 15 for 40. It’s the percentage that matters.

Final 4 3-pt%

Baylor41.1
Gonzaga37.1
Houston35.4
UCLA36.9

Baylor and Gonzaga shoot better than 37% from the 3-point line. UCLA is one made basket away from qualifying and thus would round up to 37%. Houston does not meet the criterion. In a game with Baylor, where the Bears are able to prevent the Cougars from getting multiple second chances, this could be a decider. Read on though to see the other side of this equation.

Dominant Insider Player(s)

Now that we told you the importance of 3-point shooting, now we switch and tell you it is also important to have a dominant inside player or players. A team doesn’t have to have Kareem Abdul Jabbar or Patrick Ewing inside these days to have a dominant inside game. All we are looking for is one player that can score in the low post and averages better than 12 points per game or two front court players that average better than 20 points and 12 rebounds per game.

Final 4 Inside Dominance

Team1 @ 122 @ 20/12
BaylorNoNo
GonzagaYesYes
HoustonNoNo
UCLANoNo

This is the most glaring stat of the entire system. Gonzaga has a post player that averages more than 12 points per game, and the Bulldogs have two front court players that combine for better than 20 points and 12 rebounds per game. The other three teams do not have a player that meets this criterion. It makes the Bulldogs prohibitive favorites, because this stat goes hand-in-hand with R+T and the prevention of R+T.

In past years, when a team of smaller players won the national championship, while they may not have had a 6 foot 10 inch monster in the middle, they did have a 6 foot 5 leaper that could score points inside and clean the boards with rebounds. The tiny 1964 UCLA Bruins with no starter over 6 foot 5 still dominated inside with three players that combined for 32.1 points and 17.8 rebounds per game. That tiny Bruin team outrebounded their opponents by more than 8 per game!

True Shooting Percentage Margin

True Shooting percentage is a new age metric that assigns point values to shot attempts. A free throw, a 2-point basket, and a 3-point basket obviously count for different values, so the ability to score points on a possession can be weighted. In essence, this is just another way to look at offensive and defensive efficiency, but it removes the schedule strength factor. Because all the Final 4 teams have adequate schedule strengths, this criterion may show a more accurate estimate. A double digit margin is a sign of a great team. A margin of 5.0-9.9% is really good.

Final 4 TS% Margins

TeamTS%OppMargin
Baylor58.552.06.5
Gonzaga63.449.813.6
Houston54.447.17.3
UCLA54.752.91.8

You see the obvious here. Gonzaga is far and away the superior team in this quartet. UCLA looks like a team that should have gone home by the Sweet 16. Baylor and Houston are extremely close.

Double Figure Scoring

In addition to having clutch players, it is great to have at least three players that average 10 or more points per game, preferably four players. A team with one or two big scorers is more likely to have an issue with both having “off nights” than a team with three double-figure scorers. A team with four double-figure scorers is unlikely to see all four players have an off night.

Final 4 DBL FIG

Baylor3
Gonzaga4
Houston3
UCLA4

Gonzaga and UCLA have the big four number, while Baylor and Houston have three. All four qualify here. Ironically, had UCLA’s senior star not been injured in game number eight, they would have had five double figure scorers and might have been as powerful as their 1995 national champions.

Offensive Rebounding Rate

Offensive rebounding is the key to having a superior R+T rating, and in the Final four, where all four teams have excellent team defenses, quite often the best offensive rebounding team gets that game-clinching spurt. ORR must also be used in conjunction with schedule strength.

Simply, ORR is the percentage of offensive rebounds a team gets off its missed shots. If a team misses 35 shots (FG and FT with a rebound) and gets 14 offensive rebounds, their ORR is 40.0 (14/35).

In the past, the key number has been 37.5% or three offensive rebounds for every eight missed shots. A team that could hit that mark frequently had an R+T north of 18. In recent years with more three-point shots and a prevalence of Pack-Line defenses, that number has been lowered to 35%. Any team that can retrieve 35% of its missed shots with a schedule strength in the top quadrant is going to be a tough out.

Final 4 ORR

Baylor36.1
Gonzaga30.4
Houston39.5
UCLA29.4

This is where Houston shines, and where the Cougars have their opening to upset Baylor. The issue is that Baylor has the next best ORR. Can Houston get enough offensive rebounds to account for their sub-standard three-point shooting? The probability is less than 50%.

Offensive rebounding is the closest vulnerability Gonzaga has. It is the only reason why at the beginning of March Madness that we had them as the second best overall criteria. However, UCLA has an ORR under 30.0, and that number is not indicative of a Final 4 team. If Gonzaga plays in the title game Monday night, their opponent will have one aspect of the game where they can exploit the Bulldogs’ lack of superiority. We won’t call it a weakness, because it is still better than average.

Two-point Percentage Defense

Two-point percentage is still highly important in the Big Dance. Teams still take 2/3 of their shot attempts inside the arc. The important number here is 45%. If a team holds their opponents under 45% from inside the arc, they are dangerous on the defensive side.

Final 4 2pt D

Baylor48.6
Gonzaga46.5
Houston42.8
UCLA49.4

Now you see why we pegged Houston as a potential Final 4 team before the tournament commenced. Holding opponents to 42.8% from inside the arc, while also having a superior rebounding team has allowed the Cougars to make it this far. Baylor and UCLA just barely hold teams under 50% from inside the arc. Gonzaga is in the gray area between very good and great.

Free Throw Rate

We admit that we failed to fully grasp the importance of this metric until last year. For years, we talked about how every national champion for a long stretch in history had free throw percentages under 70%, basically in the bottom 50% in their season. The teams with the highest FT% didn’t make it to the NCAA Tournament, or they made quick exits. There was a reason for this. If these teams needed a high percentage to win, they seldom could use this against superior athletes that maybe didn’t shoot as well from the charity stripe.

We threw the baby out with the bath water! How naive we were for so many years. We even altered our idea of FT Rate, going with a different formula from the norm. Originally, FT Rate was simply FT attempts divided by FG attempts. Some heavy hitters in the basketball metrics world altered this to FT made divided by FG attempts. We endorsed an Ivy League math professor’s peer-reviewed thesis that showed FT divided by possessions was more valuable than the alternatives but still considerably less important that field goal accuracy, rebounding rates, and turnover rates.

Then, like a light bulb exploding above our heads, we began to rationalize why players foul and why they do not foul. Most of the fouls in college basketball happen because the offensive player is too talented for the defensive player to guard. Instead of giving up the easy basket, the defensive player will make contact with the offensive player, hoping the referees fail to notice.

The FT rate is thus very important, but FT% isn’t the reason. It tells us which team is hardest to guard and which defense is superior and does not need to foul to stop easy baskets. Thus, the original FTA/FGA is in fact the important equation to use here. Look for a team that has an offensive FT rate over 31% and a defensive FT rate under 31%. The farther away from 31%, the better.

Final 4 FT Rate

TeamO-RateD-Rate
Baylor26.731.0
Gonzaga35.625.3
Houston30.441.0
UCLA31.428.0

Once again, Gonzaga is clearly the best at these criteria. UCLA has ridden these criteria to five wins in the Dance. Baylor is vulnerable here with substandard stats on both sides of the ball. Houston has a major issue on the defensive side, where they obviously foul way too much. If the Cougars get in early foul trouble in the first half against Baylor, it will be curtains. Baylor doesn’t force fouls, so UH might be okay for one night.

A Head Coach With Past Final Four Experience

If a coach has past Final Four experience, his team usually comes out ready to play without the “tightness” many teams have at the beginning of games. These coaches are better equipped to handle all the extra intangibles that Final Four basketball brings. Obviously, all Final 4 coaches have winning Elite 8 experience, but the regional finals and national semifinals are world’s apart.

Final 4 Coaching

BaylorNo
GonzagaYes
HoustonYes
UCLANo

Kelvin Sampson made one Final Four with Oklahoma 19 years ago. He has the experience. Mark Few has taken Gonzaga to the national finals, where the Bulldogs lost by two. Neither Mick Cronin nor Scott Drew have been here before. Gonzaga and Houston get the gold in this criterion.

Conference Champions

Very rarely has the national champion not won either its regular season conference championship, or its conference tournament championship. It isn’t 100% indicative, but it is a strong factor.

Final 4 Champions

BaylorYes
GonzagaYes
HoustonYes
UCLANo

UCLA is the odd team out again. Baylor won the Big 12 Conference title. Houston won the American Athletic Conference Tournament after finishing second in the conference race. Gonzaga swept both the West Coast Conference regular season and conference tournament titles. UCLA won neither the Pac-12 regular season nor conference tournament titles.

Scoring Margin

This is the oldest metric that holds up throughout college basketball history. Better than 90% of all national champions have had scoring margins of 10.0 points or better. Lower that to 8.0 points or better, and you approach 100%. A large majority of national champions had scoring margins above 12 points, and a sizable number had better than 15-point margins.

Final 4 Scoring Margins

Baylor17.5
Gonzaga23.1
Houston19.0
UCLA5.3

Three teams satisfy this criterion. UCLA would be on par with David slewing two Goliaths to win the title. There isn’t any past basis to predict the Bruins defeating Gonzaga and the Baylor-Houston winner.

Field Goal Percentage Margin

We almost dismissed this criterion. It is old-hat, and there are newer metrics that rate this ability better. However, this stat still holds up from the 1930’s through today. Historically, the national champion has averaged better than 7.5% superiority in field goal percentage margin. The past net-cutters have frequently topped 10% in this statistic. Only the margin matters, so this can be 52% offense to 42% defense or 47% offense and 37% for defense or any other 10% margin.

Final 4 FG% Margin

Baylor5.4
Gonzaga13.3
Houston6.4
UCLA2.3

As you can see, Gonzaga is the only one of the four teams that meet this criterion. 13.3% is similar to the other undefeated national championship teams. The 1967, 1972, and 1973 UCLA teams that went 30-0 plus the 1976 32-0 Indiana team averaged 11.3% in FG% margin. Gonzaga’s 13.3 is higher than all four of these past greats.

Winning Streak(s)

A team must win six consecutive games (seven if playing in the First Four) to win the national championship. If the team couldn’t win six or seven games in a row during the regular season, you cannot expect them to do so in the Big Dance.

There are two key data points with this criterion. They are one 10-game winning streak or two six-game winning streaks.

Final 4 Winning Streaks

Baylor18
Gonzaga30
Houston11/8/7
UCLA7

Gonzaga’s 30-0 record easily qualifies the Bulldogs here. Baylor’s 18-game winning streak safely qualifies them. Houston has three winning streaks greater than 6 games, which also satisfies this criterion’s parameters. UCLA has one winning streak of 7 games, which came in 2020 with their former senior star playing. The Bruins do not qualify.

Summation

The most obvious information herein is that UCLA made it this far as one of the greatest outliers in tournament history. They barely survived their First Four play-in game with Michigan St. Their overtime win over Alabama was gifted by a terrible officiating mistake in regulation. Their Elite 8 win over Michigan was extremely lucky when Michigan had multiple opportunities to win in the last 30 seconds but basically crumbled under pressure. Using this criteria, Gonzaga should beat the Bruins by 15 or more points.

The Baylor-Houston game is not as cut and dry. Most pundits believe BU is unbeatable in this game, but we beg to differ. Houston is the underdog in this game, but Baylor is maybe a 55% to 45% favorite at best. Both the Bears and Cougars possess the criteria to make it to the National Championship Game.

If you are a Gonzaga fan, you might want to cheer for Baylor to win their semifinal game. While the Bears have an incredible criteria resume, Houston dominates in the one area where Gonzaga is vulnerable.

The 1927 New York Yankees are considered the best baseball team of all time by a majority of baseball experts. Yet ,that team had some weaknesses. Third baseman Jumpin’ Joe Dugan was a below average player at his position. Mark Koenig was an average shortstop. The three-man catching platoon was good but not great. However, that team had Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, two of the top 10 players of all time. It had Tony Lazzeri, Earle Combs, and Bob Meusel, three additional stars that in other years could have been the best player on a pennant-winning team. The pitching staff didn’t get the accolades, but they were the best in the Major Leagues in 1927. The Pinstripes went 110-44 to win the AL Pennant and swept Pittsburgh in the World Series 4 games to none. That Pittsburgh team (actually Pittsburg in those days) was loaded with talent, including Big Poison and Little Poison in Paul and Lloyd Waner, in addition to Pie Traynor, Kiki Cuyler, and three other hitters that had batting averages over .300.

The legendary sportswriters of the 1920’s noticed the Pirates players watching the Yankees take batting practice before the series began. Ruth sent towering home run shots over the very deep Forbes Field right-center field and center field walls well over 400 feet flights. Then, Gehrig stepped into the batter’s box and sent hard-hit balls that were not as high but looked like ropes going over those same spots in the deep wall. The Pirate players were in awe, but that was just two players.

Lazzeri, Meusel, and catcher Pat Collins then got into the batter’s box in succession batting from the right side. Each of the trio then sent balls rifling over the distant left-field wall, again over 400 feet blasts. The Pirate pitchers were mortified and totally psyched out. The Series was over before it started.

Is this Gonzaga team the 1927 Yankees on the college hardwoods? With all the games being played in the Indianapolis area, Baylor, Houston, and UCLA have had ample time to see Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, and Jalen Suggs appear to be Ruth, Gehrig, and Lazzeri. They have seen Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard look like Combs and Meusel.

It is our opinion that Gonzaga is more like the great UCLA national Champions than the 1991 UNLV, 1979 Indiana State, and 1976 Rutgers teams, the last three to make it to the Final four undefeated and not win the title. The hidden intimidation factor is worth 12 to 15 points in GU’s favor. Opponents will be fearful of giving up too many easy transition baskets to really crash their offensive boards, where GU can be exploited. They are likely to hurry their shots and shoot below their norms. Because the other teams in this tournament cannot properly match up with Timme and Kispert, we expect the inside defenders to experience foul trouble.

After Citation won the Triple Crown in horse racing in 1948, 25 years passed until the feat was replicated. Great horses like Northern Dancer and Majestic Prince couldn’t pull it off. When it finally happened again, the horse that did it was the 1927 Yankees of thoroughbred racing. Secretariat forced other trainers to alter how they ran their horses, and it still didn’t work. In the Belmont, Sham tried to run fast early to keep up with Secretariat, and Sham wore out. The greatest horse of the time period ran away with a 31-length victory totally obliterating the record time by multiple seconds!

Is Gonzaga about to become the Secretariat of this generation? The Bracketnomics criteria believe so.

March 29, 2021

PiRate Ratings Elite 8 Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:38 am
FavoriteUnderdogSpread
HoustonOregon St.9.0
BaylorArkansas5.1
GonzagaUSC9.3
MichiganUCLA6.4

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics Update

Houston, Baylor, Gonzaga, and Michigan are the four remaining teams that possess the analytics criteria that 93% of the last 30 national champions possessed. Gonzaga and Michigan have the overall best criteria, but most of Michigan’s statistical outcomes includes injured star Isaiah Livers. Houston lacks overall schedule strength, but a win tonight over Oregon State and then a Final Four win over Baylor would give the Cougars the last needed piece of the puzzle in a national title game. Baylor misses on only one main criteria point as well as a couple minor points.

Obviously, the Pac-12 strength of schedules needed to be tweeked upward by a few points, and the Covid issues probably disguised the league’s resurrection. The Big Ten and Big 12 were overrated this year, while the SEC and ACC were somewhat overrated. The fact that the Elite 8 has three Pac-12 teams, and one team each from the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, West Coast, and American Athletic speaks a lot about the balance in basketball this year. The Western half of the country was the better half this year for the first time in more than a decade, maybe in the 21st Century.

March 26, 2021

PiRate Ratings Sweet 16 Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:13 am

Friday, March 26, 2021

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
Loyola (Chi.)Oregon St.6.5
BaylorVillanova5.2
ArkansasOral Roberts13.3
HoustonSyracuse7.0
GonzagaCreighton13.3
MichiganFlorida St.3.4
AlabamaUCLA5.7
USCOregon3.4

Bracketnomics Took A Beating

Like 99% of the public, our brackets are destroyed thanks to all the lower seeded teams winning in the first two rounds. Obviously, the Big Ten was highly overrated, and the Pac-12 was highly underrated. A lack of non-conference games this year made the schedule strengths too biased. There are only four teams in the Sweet 16 with resumes similar to past national champions.

Gonzaga is the only remaining team that meets 90% of the criteria of a national champion. Michigan would also meet the criteria, but their star playmaker is still injured and out. So, the Wolverines have to be discounted somewhat.

Baylor and Houston meet more than 75% of the criteria, but they are missing one key important stat. Connecticut is the only past national champion of the 21st Century to win the national title with this type of criteria.

If Gonzaga wins the title, then the bracketnomics data will have proven itself to be accurate for the year, even if our interpretation of the data was wrong. If Michigan, Houston, or Baylor wins the title, then it will be another Connecticut type of deal, where the criteria was valid but not identifiable enough to be considered a success. If anybody else cuts the nets, then the criteria failed for this year.

What should we make of this data this year? Do we throw this year out due to the highly dysfunctional season? So many games were cancelled this year, while other games were scheduled on as little as 48-72 hours notice. Included in the cancellations was a Gonzaga vs. Baylor game that should have been played, in all places, in Indianapolis in December!

One thing we will note in 2021-2022 is to consider the Big Ten Conference to be a tad overrated and the Pac-12 Conference a tad underrated. Maybe, it is time for “The Conference of Champions” to return to its prominence it enjoyed in the second half of the 20th Century.

What to Make of Gonzaga

Gonzaga’s strength of schedule just barely qualifies for national championship-worthy criteria. However, no team from outside the Power Conferences (AAC, ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, or SEC) has won the national championship since 1990, when UNLV cut down the nets. In three decades, Gonzaga came within a made basket, and Butler came within a rimmed out prayer of pulling off the Mid-Major miracle.

Gonzaga has been compared all season to the 1991 UNLV team that ran the table during the regular season with a scoring margin of close to 30 points, only to fall to Duke in the Final Four.

Could Gonzaga meet a power conference blue blood and meet the same fate as UNLV 30 years ago? Creighton would not be considered a blue blood, and we cannot see the Bulldogs losing Saturday. A win in the Sweet 16 would have GU playing a Pac-12 team in the Elite 8, either USC or Oregon. We cannot count either of these teams as a Duke-like blue blood.

In the National Semifinals, Gonzaga would face either Michigan, Florida State, UCLA, or Alabama. With Isaiah Livers able to play, Michigan would definitely be considered blue blood material. Florida State is in the blue blood neighborhood. UCLA and Alabama are both a little too green to be blue these days.

The Championship Game would present a potential opponent in Baylor that would be a true blue blood team this year. Syracuse might be a powder blue blood with their matchup zone so hard to prepare for when teams have not faced it before.

However, we here on the PiRate ship do not see Gonzaga as the UNLV team three decades later. We see this Bulldogs team more like the 1964 UCLA Bruins 57 years later. By this, we do not refer to playing style. The two teams couldn’t be any more different. Coach John Wooden’s first national champions were small in size; no starter was taller than 6 foot 5 inches. Gonzaga has size and muscle inside.

The 1964 Bruins used a devastating 2-2-1, 3/4 court zone press and occasionally a 1-2-1-1 full court zone press to force tempo and turnovers, while Gonzaga uses a standard half-court defense that relies on pressuring the ball and forcing poor shots, where they can control the boards and run the fast break and secondary break for cheap baskets and then hit the offensive glass for additional chances.

Where the two teams are quite similar is their method for winning games. In going 30-0 in 1964, UCLA put every game away with a 2 to 3 minute scoring run. The best example occurred in the national title game, where a favored Duke team, with two 6 foot 10 inch starters towering over the Bruins, fell under pressure in just 2 1/2 minutes, as the Bruins ran off 16 points in a row.

Gonzaga has this same ability to take a three-point lead and make it a 15-point lead in just a couple minutes of playing time. Their game against BYU in the West Coast Conference Championship Game is a testament to this ability. BYU held a 10-point lead and looked like they were going to do what Saint Mary’s had done in the prior WCC Championship Game. Then, in very little clock time, GU went from 10 down to 10 up, and the game was over.

There is another team remaining with the same ability to go on a major game-clinching scoring run, and that is Houston. Funny how comparing Gonzaga to UCLA brings Houston into the conversation, as Houston and UCLA conjure up memories of past titanic rivals like Dempsey-Tunney, Affirmed-Alydar, and New York Yankees and Brooklyn Dodgers.

Houston is most definitely not considered the favorite to make it to the National Championship Game. They still have to solve the Syracuse zone and then possibly beat the most underrated team in the field in Loyola of Chicago or the team that found lightning in a bottle in Oregon State. Then, they most likely have to dismiss Baylor to make it to their third national championship game in the school’s history.

A Houston-Gonzaga national championship tilt would be quite memorable, and it would be one where both teams enjoy scoring runs that make the outcome unpredictable.

March 22, 2021

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:59 am

Monday, March 22, 2021

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
GonzagaOklahoma16.0
CreightonOhio6.2
USCKansas2.2
IowaOregon6.5
MichiganLSU5.5
ColoradoFlorida St.1.1
UCLAAbilene Christian4.3
AlabamaMaryland6.0

March 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:27 pm

Saturday, March 20, 2021

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
GonzagaNorfolk St.29.8
OklahomaMissouri0.9
CreightonUCSB6.6
VirginiaOhio6.1
USCDrake5.1
KansasEastern Washington9.6
OregonVCU0.7
IowaGrand Canyon15.6
MichiganTexas Southern24.9
LSUSt. Bonaventure0.2
ColoradoGeorgetown4.6
Florida St.UNCG10.0
BYUUCLA3.9
TexasAbilene Christian7.2
ConnecticutMaryland2.2
AlabamaIona19.2

March 9, 2021

Tuesday Conference Tournament Update

March 9, 2021

Bids On The Line Tonight

Colonial Athletic Association: Drexel vs. Elon

Northeast Conference: Bryant vs. Mount St. Mary’s

Horizon League: Cleveland St. vs. Oakland

Summit League: North Dakota St. vs. Oral Roberts

West Coast Conference: Gonzaga vs. BYU

America East Conference

Championship Game–Saturday, March 13, 11 AM, ESPN2

6 U Mass-Lowell at 4 Hartford

American Athletic Conference

1st Round–Thursday, March 11 @ Fort Worth, TX

8 South Florida vs. 9 Temple (winner plays 1 Wichita St. Friday)

(4 SMU plays 5 Cincinnati Friday)

7 Tulsa vs. 10 Tulane (winner plays 2 Houston Friday)

6 Central Florida vs. 11 East Carolina (winner plays 3 Memphis Friday)

Atlantic Coast Conference

First Round–Tuesday, March 9 @ Greensboro, NC

12 Pittsburgh vs. 13 Miami (Fla.)

10 Duke vs. 15 Boston College

11 Notre Dame vs. 14 Wake Forest

Atlantic 10 Conference

Championship Game–Sunday, March 14, 1PM, CBS @ Dayton, OH

1 Saint Bonaventure vs. 2 Virginia Commonwealth

Big East Conference

1st Round–Wednesday 10 @ New York, NY

8 Georgetown vs. 9 Marquette (winner plays 1 Villanova Thursday)

(4 St. John’s plays 5 Seton Hall Thursday)

7 Xavier vs. 10 Butler (winner plays 2 Creighton Thursday)

6 Providence vs. 11 DePaul (winner plays 3 Connecticut Thursday)

Big Sky Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Boise, ID

8 Northern Colorado vs. 9 Sacramento St. (winner plays 1 Southern Utah Thursday)

(4 Idaho St. plays 5 Montana St. Thursday)

7 Portland St. vs. 10 Northern Arizona (winner plays 2 Eastern Washington Thursday)

6 Montana vs. 11 Idaho (winner plays 3 Weber St. Thursday)

Big Ten Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Indianapolis, IN

12 Northwestern vs. 13 Minnesota

11 Penn St. vs. 14 Nebraska

Big 12 Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Kansas City, MO

8 TCU vs. 9 Kansas St. (winner plays 1 Baylor Thursday)

(4 West Virginia plays 5 Oklahoma St. Thursday)

7 Oklahoma vs. 10 Iowa St. (winner plays 2 Kansas Thursday)

(3 Texas plays 6 Texas Tech Thursday)

Big West Conference

1st Round–Tuesday, March 9 @ Las Vegas

8 Cal St. Northridge vs. 9 Long Beach St. (winner plays 1 UCSB Wednesday)

(4 Cal St. Bakersfield vs. 5 UC-Davis Wednesday)

7 Cal St. Fullerton vs. 10 Cal Poly (winner plays 2 UC-Irvine Wednesday)

(3 UC-Riverside plays 6 Hawaii Wednesday)

Colonial Athletic Association

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 9 @ James Madison (Harrisonburg, VA)

7 PM EST on CBSSN

6 Drexel vs. 8 Elon

Conference USA

1st Round–Tuesday, March 9 @ Frisco, TX (Dallas Cowboys Practice Facility)

6W Rice vs. 7W Southern Miss.

6E Middle Tennessee vs. 7E Florida Intl. (MTSU wins by Default–FIU Covid Casualty)

Horizon League

Championship Game, Tuesday, March 9 @ Indianapolis, IN

7PM EST on ESPN

1 Cleveland St. vs. 3 Oakland

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

1st Round Continues, Tuesday, March 9 @ Atlantic City, NJ

8 Quinnipiac vs. 9 Rider

7 Fairfield vs. 10 Manhattan

Mid-American Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Cleveland

1 Toledo vs. 8 Ball St.

4 Kent St. vs. 5 Ohio U

2 Buffalo vs. 7 Miami (O)

3 Akron vs. 6 Bowling Green

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals, Thursday, March 11 @ Norfolk, VA

2S Florida A&M vs. 3N Morgan St. (winner plays 1N Coppin St. Friday)

2N Norfolk St. vs. 3S UNC-Central (winner plays 1S North Carolina A&T Friday)

Mountain West Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Las Vegas

8 Wyoming vs. 9 San Jose St. (winner plays 1 San Diego St. Thursday)

(4 Boise St. plays 5 Nevada Thursday)

7 UNLV vs. 10 Air Force (winner plays 2 Utah St. Thursday)

6 Fresno St. vs. 11 New Mexico (winner plays 3 Colorado St. Thursday)

Northeast Conference

Championship Game, Tuesday, March 11, 7PM, ESPN2

4 Mount St. Mary’s at 2 Bryant

Pac-12 Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Las Vegas

8 Arizona St. vs. 9 Washington St. (winner plays 1 Oregon Thursday)

(4 UCLA plays 5 Oregon St. Thursday)

7 Utah vs. 10 Washington (winner plays 2 USC Thursday)

6 Stanford vs. 11 California (winner plays 3 Colorado Thursday)

Patriot League

Semifinals–Wednesday, March 10

9 Loyola (MD) at 4 Army

6 Bucknell at 2 Colgate

Southeastern Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Nashville, TN

12 Texas A&M vs. 13 Vanderbilt

Southland Conference

1st Round–Tuesday, March 9 @ Katy, TX (Greater Houston)

8 Southeast Louisiana vs. 9 McNeese St.

7 Incarnate Word vs. 10 Houston Baptist

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 10 (& Thursday, March 11) @ Birmingham, AL

1 Prairie View vs. 8 Mississippi Valley (3/10)

4 Grambling vs. 5 Southern (3/11)

2 Jackson St. vs. 8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3/10)

3 Texas Southern vs. 6 Alcorn St. (3/11)

Summit League

Championship Game, Tuesday, March 9 @ Sioux Falls, SD

9PM EST on ESPN2

3 North Dakota St. vs. 4 Oral Roberts

West Coast Conference

Championship Game, Tuesday, March 9 @ Las Vegas

9 PM EST on ESPN

1 Gonzaga vs. 2 BYU

Western Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

4 California-Baptist vs. 5 Seattle (winner plays 1 Grand Canyon Friday)

3 New Mexico St. vs. 6 UT-Rio Grande Valley (winner plays 2 Utah Valley Friday)

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty 23-5

Winthrop 23-1

Loyola (Chi.) 24-4

Morehead St. 23-7

UNC-Greensboro 21-8

Appalachian St. 17-11

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Tuesday, March 9, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
PittsburghMiami (Fla.)5.4
DukeBoston College8.7
Notre DameWake Forest8.8
Cal St. NorthridgeLong Beach St.0.9
Cal St. FullertonCal Poly6.7
DrexelElon3.7
RiceSouthern Miss3.3
Cleveland St.Oakland3.7
QuinnipiacIona-4.5
FairfieldManhattan-0.3
BryantMount St. Mary’s6.0
Southeast LouisianaMcNeese0.7
Incarnate WordHouston Baptist2.1
North Dakota St.Oral Roberts0.6
GonzagaBYU13.0

Conference Tournament Update will post later today

March 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update

Complete Tournament Guide

America East Conference

Championship Game–Saturday, March 13, 11 AM, ESPN2

6 U Mass-Lowell at 4 Hartford

American Athletic Conference

1st Round–Thursday, March 11 @ Fort Worth, TX

8 South Florida vs. 9 Temple (winner plays 1 Wichita St. Friday)

(4 SMU plays 5 Cincinnati Friday)

7 Tulsa vs. 10 Tulane (winner plays 2 Houston Friday)

6 Central Florida vs. 11 East Carolina (winner plays 3 Memphis Friday)

Atlantic Coast Conference

First Round–Tuesday, March 9 @ Greensboro, NC

12 Pittsburgh vs. 13 Miami (Fla.)

10 Duke vs. 15 Boston College

11 Notre Dame vs. 14 Wake Forest

Atlantic 10 Conference

Championship Game–Sunday, March 14, 1PM, CBS @ Dayton, OH

1 Saint Bonaventure vs. 2 Virginia Commonwealth

Big East Conference

1st Round–Wednesday 10 @ New York, NY

8 Georgetown vs. 9 Marquette (winner plays 1 Villanova Thursday)

(4 St. John’s plays 5 Seton Hall Thursday)

7 Xavier vs. 10 Butler (winner plays 2 Creighton Thursday)

6 Providence vs. 11 DePaul (winner plays 3 Connecticut Thursday)

Big Sky Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Boise, ID

8 Northern Colorado vs. 9 Sacramento St. (winner plays 1 Southern Utah Thursday)

(4 Idaho St. plays 5 Montana St. Thursday)

7 Portland St. vs. 10 Northern Arizona (winner plays 2 Eastern Washington Thursday)

6 Montana vs. 11 Idaho (winner plays 3 Weber St. Thursday)

Big Ten Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Indianapolis, IN

12 Northwestern vs. 13 Minnesota

11 Penn St. vs. 14 Nebraska

Big 12 Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Kansas City, MO

8 TCU vs. 9 Kansas St. (winner plays 1 Baylor Thursday)

(4 West Virginia plays 5 Oklahoma St. Thursday)

7 Oklahoma vs. 10 Iowa St. (winner plays 2 Kansas Thursday)

(3 Texas plays 6 Texas Tech Thursday)

Big West Conference

1st Round–Tuesday, March 9 @ Las Vegas

8 Cal St. Northridge vs. 9 Long Beach St. (winner plays 1 UCSB Wednesday)

(4 Cal St. Bakersfield vs. 5 UC-Davis Wednesday)

7 Cal St. Fullerton vs. 10 Cal Poly (winner plays 2 UC-Irvine Wednesday)

(3 UC-Riverside plays 6 Hawaii Wednesday)

Colonial Athletic Association

Semifinals–Monday, March 8 @ James Madison (Harrisonburg, VA)

4 Hofstra vs. 8 Elon

2 Northeastern vs. 6 Drexel

Conference USA

1st Round–Tuesday, March 9 @ Frisco, TX (Dallas Cowboys Practice Facility)

6W Rice vs. 7W Southern Miss.

6E Middle Tennessee vs. 7E Florida Intl.

Horizon League

Semifinals, Monday, March 8 @ Indianapolis, IN

1 Cleveland St. vs. 8 Milwaukee

3 Oakland vs. 4 Northern Kentucky

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

1st Round, Monday, March 8 @ Atlantic City, NJ

6 Canisius vs. 11 Rider

(1st Round continues Tuesday with 8 Quinnipiac playing 9 Rider and 7 Fairfield playing 10 Manhattan)

Mid-American Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Cleveland

1 Toledo vs. 8 Ball St.

4 Kent St. vs. 5 Ohio U

2 Buffalo vs. 7 Miami (O)

3 Akron vs. 6 Bowling Green

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals, Thursday, March 11 @ Norfolk, VA

2S Florida A&M vs. 3N Morgan St. (winner plays 1N Coppin St. Friday)

2N Norfolk St. vs. 3S UNC-Central (winner plays 1S North Carolina A&T Friday)

Mountain West Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Las Vegas

8 Wyoming vs. 9 San Jose St. (winner plays 1 San Diego St. Thursday)

(4 Boise St. plays 5 Nevada Thursday)

7 UNLV vs. 10 Air Force (winner plays 2 Utah St. Thursday)

6 Fresno St. vs. 11 New Mexico (winner plays 3 Colorado St. Thursday)

Northeast Conference

Championship Game, Tuesday, March 11, 7PM, ESPN2

4 Mount St. Mary’s at 2 Bryant

Pac-12 Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Las Vegas

8 Arizona St. vs. 9 Washington St. (winner plays 1 Oregon Thursday)

(4 UCLA plays 5 Oregon St. Thursday)

7 Utah vs. 10 Washington (winner plays 2 USC Thursday)

6 Stanford vs. 11 California (winner plays 3 Colorado Thursday)

Patriot League

Semifinals–Wednesday, March 10

9 Loyola (MD) at 4 Army

6 Bucknell at 2 Colgate

Southeastern Conference

1st Round–Wednesday, March 10 @ Nashville, TN

12 Texas A&M vs. 13 Vanderbilt

Southern Conference

Championship Game–Monday, March 8, 7PM, ESPN @ Asheville, NC

1 UNC-Greensboro vs. 7 Mercer

Southland Conference

1st Round–Tuesday, March 9 @ Katy, TX (Greater Houston)

8 Southeast Louisiana vs. 9 McNeese St.

7 Incarnate Word vs. 10 Houston Baptist

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 10 (& Thursday, March 11) @ Birmingham, AL

1 Prairie View vs. 8 Mississippi Valley (3/10)

4 Grambling vs. 5 Southern (3/11)

2 Jackson St. vs. 8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3/10)

3 Texas Southern vs. 6 Alcorn St. (3/11)

Summit League

Semifinals, Monday, March 8 @ Sioux Falls, SD

1 South Dakota St. vs. 4 Oral Roberts

2 South Dakota vs. 3 North Dakota St.

Sun Belt Conference

Championship Game–Monday, March 8, 7PM, ESPN2 @ Pensacola, FL

1E Georgia St. vs. 4E Appalachian St.

West Coast Conference

Semifinals–Monday, March 8 @ Las Vegas

1 Gonzaga vs. 4 Saint Mary’s

2 BYU vs. 3 Pepperdine

Western Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

4 California-Baptist vs. 5 Seattle (winner plays 1 Grand Canyon Friday)

3 New Mexico St. vs. 6 UT-Rio Grande Valley (winner plays 2 Utah Valley Friday)

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty 23-5

Winthrop 23-1

Loyola (Chi.) 24-4

Morehead St. 23-7

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Monday, March 8, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
HofstraElon2.9
NortheasternDrexel0.1
Cleveland St.Milwaukee3.3
OaklandNorthern Kentucky-1.7
CanisiusRider4.8
UNC GreensboroMercer2.5
South Dakota St.Oral Roberts3.8
South DakotaNorth Dakota St.-1.3
Georgia St.Appalachian St.4.8
GonzagaSaint Mary’s20.1
BYUPepperdine10.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk.TeamRatings
1Gonzaga128.0
2Baylor122.4
3Illinois121.5
4Michigan121.4
5Iowa121.3
6Houston118.9
7Alabama118.6
8Ohio St.117.5
9Arkansas116.7
10Florida St.116.7
11Creighton115.9
12Loyola Chicago115.9
13Purdue115.8
14USC115.8
15Villanova115.7
16Wisconsin115.6
17Colorado115.6
18BYU115.0
19Kansas114.9
20San Diego St.114.9
21West Virginia114.8
22Texas114.7
23Tennessee114.6
24Virginia114.4
25Texas Tech114.4
26Connecticut114.4
27LSU114.3
28North Carolina113.9
29St. Bonaventure113.7
30Oklahoma St.113.4
31Florida113.4
32Penn St.113.3
33Georgia Tech113.1
34Rutgers113.0
35Maryland112.8
36Oregon112.7
37Memphis112.5
38Oklahoma112.3
39VCU111.9
40Duke111.9
41Indiana111.7
42Utah St.111.6
43Clemson111.4
44Missouri111.4
45Arizona111.3
46Kentucky111.3
47Saint Louis111.2
48UCLA111.1
49Syracuse111.0
50Virginia Tech110.9
51SMU110.8
52Seton Hall110.6
53Michigan St.110.6
54Louisville110.5
55Boise St.110.5
56Mississippi110.4
57St. John’s110.4
58Drake110.4
59Colorado St.110.3
60Toledo110.3
61Xavier110.2
62Minnesota110.2
63Auburn110.1
64Buffalo109.9
65Wright St.109.9
66N.C. State109.5
67Richmond109.5
68Davidson109.4
69Notre Dame109.3
70Northwestern109.2
71Wichita St.109.0
72Mississippi St.108.8
73Providence108.7
74Marquette108.6
75Stanford108.6
76Utah108.5
77UC Santa Barbara108.2
78Louisiana Tech108.1
79Marshall107.9
80Saint Mary’s107.9
81Dayton107.9
82North Texas107.5
83Pittsburgh107.4
84Missouri St.107.2
85Winthrop107.2
86Georgia107.2
87Georgetown107.1
88Colgate107.1
89Nebraska106.9
90Kent St.106.8
91Furman106.7
92Abilene Christian106.5
93Nevada106.5
94Vanderbilt106.4
95Belmont106.2
96UAB106.2
97Western Kentucky106.1
98Rhode Island106.1
99Liberty106.1
100UCF106.0
101UNC Greensboro105.9
102San Francisco105.8
103Loyola Marymount105.8
104Akron105.7
105Oregon St.105.7
106Ohio105.7
107Washington St.105.6
108UC Riverside105.4
109South Carolina105.3
110Massachusetts105.2
111UC Irvine105.2
112Cincinnati105.1
113Arizona St.105.0
114Butler104.9
115Pepperdine104.9
116South Dakota St.104.9
117Bowling Green104.5
118Eastern Washington104.5
119Duquesne104.5
120Indiana St.104.4
121Tulsa104.3
122Pacific103.8
123Wofford103.7
124Weber St.103.7
125Mercer103.4
126DePaul103.4
127East Tennessee St.103.3
128TCU103.3
129Morehead St.103.2
130Vermont103.2
131Boston College103.2
132Texas A&M103.1
133George Mason103.0
134Grand Canyon102.9
135UTEP102.7
136Temple102.7
137Georgia St.102.2
138Southern Utah102.1
139Cal St. Bakersfield102.1
140Bradley102.0
141Miami FL102.0
142Ball St.102.0
143Miami OH101.9
144Detroit101.8
145North Dakota St.101.7
146VMI101.7
147Tulane101.6
148Stephen F. Austin101.4
149Old Dominion101.4
150East Carolina101.3
151Santa Clara101.3
152Chattanooga101.3
153Northeastern101.1
154Cleveland St.101.1
155Jacksonville St.101.1
156New Mexico St.101.1
157Oral Roberts101.1
158Drexel101.0
159Northern Iowa101.0
160Navy100.9
161California100.8
162UTSA100.8
163UMBC100.7
164Murray St.100.7
165Bryant100.7
166Eastern Kentucky100.6
167Coastal Carolina100.6
168Wake Forest100.5
169UNLV100.5
170South Dakota100.4
171James Madison100.3
172Sam Houston St.100.2
173Hofstra100.2
174Washington100.2
175Gardner Webb100.1
176South Florida100.1
177Iowa St.99.9
178Bellarmine99.9
179Siena99.9
180Wyoming99.7
181Kansas St.99.7
182Texas St.99.7
183Fresno St.99.4
184Florida Atlantic99.2
185Northern Kentucky99.1
186Army99.0
187Valparaiso98.9
188Montana98.8
189Southern Illinois98.8
190Nicholls St.98.7
191La Salle98.6
192Hawaii98.4
193Rice98.4
194Hartford98.3
195Illinois St.98.3
196Saint Joseph’s98.3
197Evansville98.1
198Iona98.0
199Louisiana97.9
200Monmouth97.8
201Utah Valley97.8
202Campbell97.8
203Milwaukee97.8
204San Diego97.7
205Saint Peter’s97.5
206Oakland97.4
207South Alabama97.4
208Appalachian St.97.4
209Austin Peay97.4
210Wagner97.4
211UMKC97.4
212Elon97.3
213The Citadel97.1
214Loyola MD97.0
215UMass Lowell97.0
216Delaware96.9
217George Washington96.9
218Charlotte96.8
219Charleston96.8
220Mount St. Mary’s96.7
221UC Davis96.7
222Stony Brook96.6
223Youngstown St.96.4
224Albany96.2
225Radford96.2
226Longwood96.2
227Cal Baptist96.1
228Canisius96.1
229Norfolk St.96.0
230UNC Asheville96.0
231Little Rock96.0
232Montana St.96.0
233Lipscomb95.9
234Seattle95.9
235Western Carolina95.9
236UC San Diego95.9
237Niagara95.8
238Green Bay95.8
239UNC Wilmington95.8
240Prairie View A&M95.7
241Stetson95.6
242Northern Colorado95.4
243Portland St.95.3
244Arkansas St.95.3
245UT Arlington95.1
246Southern Miss95.1
247Sacramento St.95.1
248Boston University95.0
249Morgan St.94.9
250Marist94.8
251Lafayette94.8
252Cal St. Fullerton94.8
253Texas Southern94.7
254IUPUI94.6
255American94.5
256New Hampshire94.5
257Tarleton St.94.4
258Idaho St.94.4
259Western Michigan94.4
260Cal St. Northridge94.3
261Georgia Southern94.1
262Samford94.0
263Southeast Missouri St.93.9
264Bucknell93.9
265Purdue Fort Wayne93.7
266LIU93.7
267Florida A&M93.7
268Merrimack93.6
269Jackson St.93.6
270Quinnipiac93.5
271Illinois Chicago93.5
272Eastern Michigan93.4
273High Point93.4
274Long Beach St.93.4
275Central Michigan93.3
276UT Rio Grande Valley93.2
277New Mexico93.1
278North Carolina A&T93.1
279North Alabama93.0
280Robert Morris92.9
281Fordham92.9
282North Dakota92.8
283Towson92.8
284Florida Gulf Coast92.7
285NJIT92.7
286New Orleans92.7
287Fairleigh Dickinson92.4
288William & Mary92.4
289Louisiana Monroe92.4
290Holy Cross92.3
291FIU92.3
292Jacksonville92.3
293St. Francis NY92.2
294North Florida92.2
295Troy92.2
296St. Francis PA92.1
297Middle Tennessee92.0
298Eastern Illinois91.7
299Southern91.7
300Western Illinois91.7
301Coppin St.91.4
302Lamar91.4
303Howard91.4
304North Carolina Central91.4
305Tennessee Tech91.3
306Rider91.3
307Manhattan91.2
308Sacred Heart91.0
309Air Force91.0
310Nebraska Omaha90.9
311Fairfield90.9
312Binghamton90.8
313USC Upstate90.7
314SIU Edwardsville90.7
315Presbyterian90.6
316Northwestern St.90.5
317Tennessee St.90.5
318San Jose St.90.0
319Grambling St.90.0
320Hampton89.7
321Northern Illinois89.3
322Northern Arizona89.3
323Central Arkansas89.0
324Portland89.0
325Lehigh88.9
326Southeastern Louisiana88.7
327Incarnate Word88.5
328Dixie St.88.5
329Kennesaw St.88.2
330Cal Poly88.1
331Maine88.1
332McNeese St.88.0
333Charleston Southern88.0
334Alcorn St.87.6
335Central Connecticut87.5
336Texas A&M Corpus Chris87.0
337Tennessee Martin86.6
338Denver86.5
339Houston Baptist86.4
340Alabama A&M86.1
341Arkansas Pine Bluff84.6
342Idaho83.5
343South Carolina St.82.9
344Delaware St.82.0
345Alabama St.81.8
346Chicago St.80.8
347Mississippi Valley St.70.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic 10
TeamRating
St. Bonaventure113.7
VCU111.9
Saint Louis111.2
Richmond109.5
Davidson109.4
Dayton107.9
Rhode Island106.1
Massachusetts105.2
Duquesne104.5
George Mason103.0
La Salle98.6
Saint Joseph’s98.3
George Washington96.9
Fordham92.9
American
TeamRating
Houston118.9
Memphis112.5
SMU110.8
Wichita St.109.0
UCF106.0
Cincinnati105.1
Tulsa104.3
Temple102.7
Tulane101.6
East Carolina101.3
South Florida100.1
Atlantic Coast
TeamRating
Florida St.116.7
Virginia114.4
North Carolina113.9
Georgia Tech113.1
Duke111.9
Clemson111.4
Syracuse111.0
Virginia Tech110.9
Louisville110.5
N.C. State109.5
Notre Dame109.3
Pittsburgh107.4
Boston College103.2
Miami FL102.0
Wake Forest100.5
America East
TeamRating
Vermont103.2
UMBC100.7
Hartford98.3
UMass Lowell97.0
Stony Brook96.6
Albany96.2
New Hampshire94.5
NJIT92.7
Binghamton90.8
Maine88.1
Atlantic Sun
TeamRating
Liberty106.1
Bellarmine99.9
Lipscomb95.9
Stetson95.6
North Alabama93.0
Florida Gulf Coast92.7
Jacksonville92.3
North Florida92.2
Kennesaw St.88.2
Big 12
TeamRating
Baylor122.4
Kansas114.9
West Virginia114.8
Texas114.7
Texas Tech114.4
Oklahoma St.113.4
Oklahoma112.3
TCU103.3
Iowa St.99.9
Kansas St.99.7
Big East
TeamRating
Creighton115.9
Villanova115.7
Connecticut114.4
Seton Hall110.6
St. John’s110.4
Xavier110.2
Providence108.7
Marquette108.6
Georgetown107.1
Butler104.9
DePaul103.4
Big Sky
TeamRating
Eastern Washington104.5
Weber St.103.7
Southern Utah102.1
Montana98.8
Montana St.96.0
Northern Colorado95.4
Portland St.95.3
Sacramento St.95.1
Idaho St.94.4
Northern Arizona89.3
Idaho83.5
Big South
TeamRating
Winthrop107.2
Gardner Webb100.1
Campbell97.8
Radford96.2
Longwood96.2
UNC Asheville96.0
High Point93.4
USC Upstate90.7
Presbyterian90.6
Hampton89.7
Charleston Southern88.0
Big Ten
TeamRating
Illinois121.5
Michigan121.4
Iowa121.3
Ohio St.117.5
Purdue115.8
Wisconsin115.6
Penn St.113.3
Rutgers113.0
Maryland112.8
Indiana111.7
Michigan St.110.6
Minnesota110.2
Northwestern109.2
Nebraska106.9
Big West
TeamRating
UC Santa Barbara108.2
UC Riverside105.4
UC Irvine105.2
Cal St. Bakersfield102.1
Hawaii98.4
UC Davis96.7
UC San Diego95.9
Cal St. Fullerton94.8
Cal St. Northridge94.3
Long Beach St.93.4
Cal Poly88.1
Colonial
TeamRating
Northeastern101.1
Drexel101.0
James Madison100.3
Hofstra100.2
Elon97.3
Delaware96.9
Charleston96.8
UNC Wilmington95.8
Towson92.8
William & Mary92.4
Conference USA
TeamRating
Louisiana Tech108.1
Marshall107.9
North Texas107.5
UAB106.2
Western Kentucky106.1
UTEP102.7
Old Dominion101.4
UTSA100.8
Florida Atlantic99.2
Rice98.4
Charlotte96.8
Southern Miss95.1
FIU92.3
Middle Tennessee92.0
Horizon
TeamRating
Wright St.109.9
Detroit101.8
Cleveland St.101.1
Northern Kentucky99.1
Milwaukee97.8
Oakland97.4
Youngstown St.96.4
Green Bay95.8
IUPUI94.6
Purdue Fort Wayne93.7
Illinois Chicago93.5
Robert Morris92.9
Metro Atlantic
TeamRating
Siena99.9
Iona98.0
Monmouth97.8
Saint Peter’s97.5
Canisius96.1
Niagara95.8
Marist94.8
Quinnipiac93.5
Rider91.3
Manhattan91.2
Fairfield90.9
Mid-American
TeamRating
Toledo110.3
Buffalo109.9
Kent St.106.8
Akron105.7
Ohio105.7
Bowling Green104.5
Ball St.102.0
Miami OH101.9
Western Michigan94.4
Eastern Michigan93.4
Central Michigan93.3
Northern Illinois89.3
Mideastern Athletic
TeamRating
Norfolk St.96.0
Morgan St.94.9
Florida A&M93.7
North Carolina A&T93.1
Coppin St.91.4
Howard91.4
North Carolina Central91.4
South Carolina St.82.9
Delaware St.82.0
Missouri Valley
TeamRating
Loyola Chicago115.9
Drake110.4
Missouri St.107.2
Indiana St.104.4
Bradley102.0
Northern Iowa101.0
Valparaiso98.9
Southern Illinois98.8
Illinois St.98.3
Evansville98.1
Mountain West
TeamRating
San Diego St.114.9
Utah St.111.6
Boise St.110.5
Colorado St.110.3
Nevada106.5
UNLV100.5
Wyoming99.7
Fresno St.99.4
New Mexico93.1
Air Force91.0
San Jose St.90.0
Northeast
TeamRating
Bryant100.7
Wagner97.4
Mount St. Mary’s96.7
LIU93.7
Merrimack93.6
Fairleigh Dickinson92.4
St. Francis NY92.2
St. Francis PA92.1
Sacred Heart91.0
Central Connecticut87.5
Ohio Valley
TeamRating
Belmont106.2
Morehead St.103.2
Jacksonville St.101.1
Murray St.100.7
Eastern Kentucky100.6
Austin Peay97.4
Southeast Missouri St.93.9
Eastern Illinois91.7
Tennessee Tech91.3
SIU Edwardsville90.7
Tennessee St.90.5
Tennessee Martin86.6
Pac-12
TeamRating
USC115.8
Colorado115.6
Oregon112.7
Arizona111.3
UCLA111.1
Stanford108.6
Utah108.5
Oregon St.105.7
Washington St.105.6
Arizona St.105.0
California100.8
Washington100.2
Patriot
TeamRating
Colgate107.1
Navy100.9
Army99.0
Loyola MD97.0
Boston University95.0
Lafayette94.8
American94.5
Bucknell93.9
Holy Cross92.3
Lehigh88.9
Southeastern
TeamRating
Alabama118.6
Arkansas116.7
Tennessee114.6
LSU114.3
Florida113.4
Missouri111.4
Kentucky111.3
Mississippi110.4
Auburn110.1
Mississippi St.108.8
Georgia107.2
Vanderbilt106.4
South Carolina105.3
Texas A&M103.1
Southern
TeamRating
Furman106.7
UNC Greensboro105.9
Wofford103.7
Mercer103.4
East Tennessee St.103.3
VMI101.7
Chattanooga101.3
The Citadel97.1
Western Carolina95.9
Samford94.0
Southland
TeamRating
Abilene Christian106.5
Stephen F. Austin101.4
Sam Houston St.100.2
Nicholls St.98.7
New Orleans92.7
Lamar91.4
Northwestern St.90.5
Central Arkansas89.0
Southeastern Louisiana88.7
Incarnate Word88.5
McNeese St.88.0
Texas A&M Corpus Chris87.0
Houston Baptist86.4
Summit
TeamRating
South Dakota St.104.9
North Dakota St.101.7
Oral Roberts101.1
South Dakota100.4
UMKC97.4
North Dakota92.8
Western Illinois91.7
Nebraska Omaha90.9
Denver86.5
Southwestern Athletic
TeamRating
Prairie View A&M95.7
Texas Southern94.7
Jackson St.93.6
Southern91.7
Grambling St.90.0
Alcorn St.87.6
Alabama A&M86.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff84.6
Alabama St.81.8
Mississippi Valley St.70.8
Sun Belt
TeamRating
Georgia St.102.2
Coastal Carolina100.6
Texas St.99.7
Louisiana97.9
South Alabama97.4
Appalachian St.97.4
Little Rock96.0
Arkansas St.95.3
UT Arlington95.1
Georgia Southern94.1
Louisiana Monroe92.4
Troy92.2
Western Athletic
TeamRating
Grand Canyon102.9
New Mexico St.101.1
Utah Valley97.8
Cal Baptist96.1
Seattle95.9
Tarleton St.94.4
UT Rio Grande Valley93.2
Dixie St.88.5
Chicago St.80.8
West Coast
TeamRating
Gonzaga128.0
BYU115.0
Saint Mary’s107.9
San Francisco105.8
Loyola Marymount105.8
Pepperdine104.9
Pacific103.8
Santa Clara101.3
San Diego97.7
Portland89.0

PiRate Ratings Alphabetically

RkTeamRating
92Abilene Christian106.5
309Air Force91.0
104Akron105.7
7Alabama118.6
340Alabama A&M86.1
345Alabama St.81.8
224Albany96.2
334Alcorn St.87.6
255American94.5
208Appalachian St.97.4
45Arizona111.3
113Arizona St.105.0
9Arkansas116.7
341Arkansas Pine Bluff84.6
244Arkansas St.95.3
186Army99.0
63Auburn110.1
209Austin Peay97.4
142Ball St.102.0
2Baylor122.4
178Bellarmine99.9
95Belmont106.2
312Binghamton90.8
55Boise St.110.5
131Boston College103.2
248Boston University95.0
117Bowling Green104.5
140Bradley102.0
165Bryant100.7
264Bucknell93.9
64Buffalo109.9
114Butler104.9
18BYU115.0
227Cal Baptist96.1
330Cal Poly88.1
139Cal St. Bakersfield102.1
252Cal St. Fullerton94.8
260Cal St. Northridge94.3
161California100.8
202Campbell97.8
228Canisius96.1
323Central Arkansas89.0
335Central Connecticut87.5
275Central Michigan93.3
219Charleston96.8
333Charleston Southern88.0
218Charlotte96.8
152Chattanooga101.3
346Chicago St.80.8
112Cincinnati105.1
43Clemson111.4
154Cleveland St.101.1
167Coastal Carolina100.6
88Colgate107.1
17Colorado115.6
59Colorado St.110.3
26Connecticut114.4
301Coppin St.91.4
11Creighton115.9
68Davidson109.4
81Dayton107.9
216Delaware96.9
344Delaware St.82.0
338Denver86.5
126DePaul103.4
144Detroit101.8
328Dixie St.88.5
58Drake110.4
158Drexel101.0
40Duke111.9
119Duquesne104.5
150East Carolina101.3
127East Tennessee St.103.3
298Eastern Illinois91.7
166Eastern Kentucky100.6
272Eastern Michigan93.4
118Eastern Washington104.5
212Elon97.3
197Evansville98.1
311Fairfield90.9
287Fairleigh Dickinson92.4
291FIU92.3
31Florida113.4
267Florida A&M93.7
184Florida Atlantic99.2
284Florida Gulf Coast92.7
10Florida St.116.7
281Fordham92.9
183Fresno St.99.4
91Furman106.7
175Gardner Webb100.1
133George Mason103.0
217George Washington96.9
87Georgetown107.1
86Georgia107.2
261Georgia Southern94.1
137Georgia St.102.2
33Georgia Tech113.1
1Gonzaga128.0
319Grambling St.90.0
134Grand Canyon102.9
238Green Bay95.8
320Hampton89.7
194Hartford98.3
192Hawaii98.4
273High Point93.4
173Hofstra100.2
290Holy Cross92.3
6Houston118.9
339Houston Baptist86.4
303Howard91.4
342Idaho83.5
258Idaho St.94.4
3Illinois121.5
271Illinois Chicago93.5
195Illinois St.98.3
327Incarnate Word88.5
41Indiana111.7
120Indiana St.104.4
198Iona98.0
5Iowa121.3
177Iowa St.99.9
254IUPUI94.6
269Jackson St.93.6
292Jacksonville92.3
155Jacksonville St.101.1
171James Madison100.3
19Kansas114.9
181Kansas St.99.7
329Kennesaw St.88.2
90Kent St.106.8
46Kentucky111.3
191La Salle98.6
251Lafayette94.8
302Lamar91.4
325Lehigh88.9
99Liberty106.1
233Lipscomb95.9
231Little Rock96.0
266LIU93.7
274Long Beach St.93.4
226Longwood96.2
199Louisiana97.9
289Louisiana Monroe92.4
78Louisiana Tech108.1
54Louisville110.5
12Loyola Chicago115.9
103Loyola Marymount105.8
214Loyola MD97.0
27LSU114.3
331Maine88.1
307Manhattan91.2
250Marist94.8
74Marquette108.6
79Marshall107.9
35Maryland112.8
110Massachusetts105.2
332McNeese St.88.0
37Memphis112.5
125Mercer103.4
268Merrimack93.6
141Miami FL102.0
143Miami OH101.9
4Michigan121.4
53Michigan St.110.6
297Middle Tennessee92.0
203Milwaukee97.8
62Minnesota110.2
56Mississippi110.4
72Mississippi St.108.8
347Mississippi Valley St.70.8
44Missouri111.4
84Missouri St.107.2
200Monmouth97.8
188Montana98.8
232Montana St.96.0
129Morehead St.103.2
249Morgan St.94.9
220Mount St. Mary’s96.7
164Murray St.100.7
66N.C. State109.5
160Navy100.9
89Nebraska106.9
310Nebraska Omaha90.9
93Nevada106.5
256New Hampshire94.5
277New Mexico93.1
156New Mexico St.101.1
286New Orleans92.7
237Niagara95.8
190Nicholls St.98.7
285NJIT92.7
229Norfolk St.96.0
279North Alabama93.0
28North Carolina113.9
278North Carolina A&T93.1
304North Carolina Central91.4
282North Dakota92.8
145North Dakota St.101.7
294North Florida92.2
82North Texas107.5
153Northeastern101.1
322Northern Arizona89.3
242Northern Colorado95.4
321Northern Illinois89.3
159Northern Iowa101.0
185Northern Kentucky99.1
70Northwestern109.2
316Northwestern St.90.5
69Notre Dame109.3
206Oakland97.4
106Ohio105.7
8Ohio St.117.5
38Oklahoma112.3
30Oklahoma St.113.4
149Old Dominion101.4
157Oral Roberts101.1
36Oregon112.7
105Oregon St.105.7
122Pacific103.8
32Penn St.113.3
115Pepperdine104.9
83Pittsburgh107.4
324Portland89.0
243Portland St.95.3
240Prairie View A&M95.7
315Presbyterian90.6
73Providence108.7
13Purdue115.8
265Purdue Fort Wayne93.7
270Quinnipiac93.5
225Radford96.2
98Rhode Island106.1
193Rice98.4
67Richmond109.5
306Rider91.3
280Robert Morris92.9
34Rutgers113.0
247Sacramento St.95.1
308Sacred Heart91.0
196Saint Joseph’s98.3
47Saint Louis111.2
80Saint Mary’s107.9
205Saint Peter’s97.5
172Sam Houston St.100.2
262Samford94.0
204San Diego97.7
20San Diego St.114.9
102San Francisco105.8
318San Jose St.90.0
151Santa Clara101.3
234Seattle95.9
52Seton Hall110.6
179Siena99.9
314SIU Edwardsville90.7
51SMU110.8
207South Alabama97.4
109South Carolina105.3
343South Carolina St.82.9
170South Dakota100.4
116South Dakota St.104.9
176South Florida100.1
263Southeast Missouri St.93.9
326Southeastern Louisiana88.7
299Southern91.7
189Southern Illinois98.8
246Southern Miss95.1
138Southern Utah102.1
29St. Bonaventure113.7
293St. Francis NY92.2
296St. Francis PA92.1
57St. John’s110.4
75Stanford108.6
148Stephen F. Austin101.4
241Stetson95.6
222Stony Brook96.6
49Syracuse111.0
257Tarleton St.94.4
128TCU103.3
136Temple102.7
23Tennessee114.6
337Tennessee Martin86.6
317Tennessee St.90.5
305Tennessee Tech91.3
22Texas114.7
132Texas A&M103.1
336Texas A&M Corpus Chris87.0
253Texas Southern94.7
182Texas St.99.7
25Texas Tech114.4
213The Citadel97.1
60Toledo110.3
283Towson92.8
295Troy92.2
147Tulane101.6
121Tulsa104.3
96UAB106.2
221UC Davis96.7
111UC Irvine105.2
108UC Riverside105.4
236UC San Diego95.9
77UC Santa Barbara108.2
100UCF106.0
48UCLA111.1
215UMass Lowell97.0
163UMBC100.7
211UMKC97.4
230UNC Asheville96.0
101UNC Greensboro105.9
239UNC Wilmington95.8
169UNLV100.5
14USC115.8
313USC Upstate90.7
245UT Arlington95.1
276UT Rio Grande Valley93.2
76Utah108.5
42Utah St.111.6
201Utah Valley97.8
135UTEP102.7
162UTSA100.8
187Valparaiso98.9
94Vanderbilt106.4
39VCU111.9
130Vermont103.2
15Villanova115.7
24Virginia114.4
50Virginia Tech110.9
146VMI101.7
210Wagner97.4
168Wake Forest100.5
174Washington100.2
107Washington St.105.6
124Weber St.103.7
21West Virginia114.8
235Western Carolina95.9
300Western Illinois91.7
97Western Kentucky106.1
259Western Michigan94.4
71Wichita St.109.0
288William & Mary92.4
85Winthrop107.2
16Wisconsin115.6
123Wofford103.7
65Wright St.109.9
180Wyoming99.7
61Xavier110.2
223Youngstown St.96.4

Coming Later Today

  1. Conference Tournament Update
  2. Updated Bracketology

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