The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 12, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 12, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:30 am
HomeVisitorSpread
Appalachian St.Georgia Southern4.0
Arkansas St.Texas St.-3.7
Austin PeayLipscomb1.2
BellarmineStetson0.8
BYUGonzaga-6.0
DenverNorth Dakota St.0.8
DetroitYoungstown St.-2.8
Eastern IllinoisSIU Edwardsville-8.4
Eastern KentuckyFlorida Gulf Coast-4.1
Georgia St.Troy-3.3
Grand CanyonUT Arlington12.8
Green BayWright St.-9.3
Houston ChristianTexas A&M-Commerce-5.3
Incarnate WordNew Orleans0.8
IowaMichigan5.6
IUPUIPurdue Ft. Wayne-16.6
Jacksonville St.North Florida0.2
Kennesaw St.Jacksonville1.4
LamarNicholls St.-10.7
LibertyNorth Alabama17.1
Long Beach St.Cal Poly7.5
Louisiana MonroeLouisiana-6.9
MarshallSouthern Miss.6.5
MilwaukeeNorthern Kentucky2.5
MontanaWeber St.4.7
Montana St.Idaho St.10.0
Northwestern St.McNeese St.7.5
OaklandRobert Morris1.9
Ohio St.Minnesota18.5
Old DominionCoastal Carolina5.8
OmahaNorth Dakota4.3
Oral RobertsWestern Illinois14.7
OregonArizona St.3.0
Oregon St.Arizona-15.9
PortlandSan Francisco-2.0
Portland St.Northern Arizona6.7
QueensCentral Arkansas12.0
Sacramento St.Northern Colorado5.3
Saint Mary’sLoyola Marymount13.0
San DiegoPepperdine1.3
SeattleNew Mexico St.3.1
South AlabamaJames Madison-5.3
Southeast Missouri St.Lindenwood7.6
Southern IndianaLittle Rock7.8
Southern UtahSam Houston-2.6
Stony BrookDrexel-5.3
Tennessee St.UT Martin2.3
Tennessee TechMorehead St.0.3
Texas A&M-CCSoutheastern Louisiana7.5
UCLAUtah11.2
UMKCSt. Thomas0.4
UNC AshevilleLongwood-1.7
USCColorado1.5
Utah TechStephen F. Austin-0.6
WashingtonStanford1.1

January 5, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 5, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:30 am
HomeVisitorSpread
UMBCAlbany9.4
Holy CrossAmerican-8.1
South AlabamaArkansas St.9.6
Loyola (MD)Army0.7
VermontBryant3.7
Loyola MarymountBYU-0.1
Cal St. BakersfieldCal Poly1.6
UC RiversideCal St. Fullerton6.4
Florida Int’l.Charlotte-8.0
Wichita St.Cincinnati-1.3
Appalachian St.Coastal Carolina3.5
St. ThomasDenver6.4
TowsonDrexel5.2
Tennessee TechEastern Illinois3.4
Central ArkansasEastern Kentucky-4.4
St. Francis (NY)Fairleigh Dickinson1.2
Austin PeayFlorida Gulf Coast-5.2
Louisiana MonroeGeorgia St.-1.9
San FranciscoGonzaga-10.0
Sam Houston St.Grand Canyon6.1
Purdue Ft. WayneGreen Bay20.0
UC San DiegoHawaii-6.5
HamptonHofstra-10.6
Southeastern LouisianaHouston Christian9.8
IowaIndiana0.1
StetsonJacksonville-0.6
LibertyJacksonville St.12.8
North FloridaKennesaw St.0.5
Boston U.Lafayette4.1
New OrleansLamar6.1
BucknellLehigh7.5
Cal St. NorthridgeLong Beach St.-4.3
Central Connecticut St.Long Island8.9
RiceLouisiana Tech1.0
UMass LowellMaine12.6
Georgia SouthernMarshall-7.4
RutgersMaryland5.8
UTSAMiddle Tennessee-9.3
Cleveland St.Milwaukee4.8
Northern ArizonaMontana-3.0
Northern ColoradoMontana St.-2.6
ColgateNavy6.7
BinghamtonNew Hampshire-0.8
Texas A&M CommerceNicholls St.-2.2
LipscombNorth Alabama6.3
Western KentuckyNorth Texas-4.2
William & MaryNortheastern0.4
McNeese St.Northwestern St.-3.4
TroyOld Dominion4.3
Western IllinoisOmaha4.1
ColoradoOregon2.2
UtahOregon St.16.4
San DiegoPacific7.3
Eastern WashingtonPortland St.5.4
Ohio St.Purdue2.2
BellarmineQueens-0.7
Youngstown St.Robert Morris8.1
IdahoSacramento St.-1.8
MerrimackSacred Heart0.3
PepperdineSanta Clara-1.2
UT Rio Grande ValleySeattle-7.1
HoustonSMU22.4
North DakotaSouth Dakota-1.7
North Dakota St.South Dakota St.-2.2
UT MartinSoutheast Missouri St.1.5
Morehead St.Southern Indiana1.5
LouisianaSouthern Miss.1.2
Tarleton St.Southern Utah0.3
MonmouthStony Brook-2.6
SIU EdwardsvilleTennessee St.7.5
James MadisonTexas St.14.8
Florida AtlanticUAB2.6
UC DavisUC Irvine-3.7
UCLAUSC14.1
Cal BaptistUtah Tech3.4
UT ArlingtonUtah Valley-7.4
StonehillWagner-0.3
ArizonaWashington17.7
Arizona St.Washington St.5.1

December 31, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, December 31, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:00 am
Saturday, December 31, 2022
HomeVisitorSpread
Abilene ChristianTarleton St.2.1
Air ForceNevada-3.6
AlbanyNew Hampshire1.2
Arizona St.Arizona-5.2
Arkansas St.Louisiana Monroe4.4
BradleyIllinois Chicago13.8
BryantBinghamton13.7
BYUPortland8.2
Cal St. BakersfieldUC Irvine-9.6
Cal St. FullertonCal St. Northridge7.1
CaliforniaColorado-10.8
CampbellLongwood-3.0
CanisiusRider-1.3
Central Connecticut St.St. Francis (NY)1.4
Charleston SouthernUSC Upstate1.9
CharlotteLouisiana Tech6.1
Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern4.0
Colorado St.San Jose St.7.9
ColumbiaYale-17.1
DavidsonDayton-3.6
DelawareElon11.0
DenverOral Roberts-9.3
DetroitMilwaukee5.3
DrexelWilliam & Mary8.3
DukeFlorida St.15.9
DuquesneRhode Island7.3
Eastern IllinoisSouthern Indiana-5.0
Eastern KentuckyQueens-0.8
Florida Gulf CoastJacksonville5.0
George MasonRichmond1.4
Georgia St.South Alabama-1.4
Georgia TechVirginia-7.4
GonzagaPepperdine19.5
HawaiiCal Poly10.7
High PointGardner Webb-0.5
HofstraNorth Carolina A&T11.5
HoustonCentral Florida16.0
Idaho St.Northern Colorado-0.2
Illinois St.Northern Iowa-0.7
Iowa St.Baylor-1.6
IUPUINorthern Kentucky-13.1
KansasOklahoma St.8.9
Kansas St.West Virginia-0.5
Kennesaw St.Central Arkansas10.7
KentuckyLouisville22.5
LamarMcNeese St.-1.7
LindenwoodTennessee Tech-0.6
Long Beach St.UC Riverside0.9
Long IslandSacred Heart-3.2
Loyola (Chi)George Washington7.1
MarshallJames Madison1.4
MercerChattanooga0.8
Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky3.8
MontanaIdaho8.3
Montana St.Eastern Washington5.0
New Mexico St.Sam Houston-1.1
NiagaraMount St. Mary’s1.8
NJITUMass Lowell-11.1
North FloridaAustin Peay3.3
North TexasFlorida Int’l.16.7
NortheasternStony Brook7.2
Northwestern St.Texas A&M-CC1.3
OaklandGreen Bay11.4
OklahomaTexas-3.5
Old DominionLouisiana1.3
OmahaUMKC1.1
OregonOregon St.15.9
PacificLoyola Marymount-6.8
PrincetonHarvard6.5
RadfordPresbyterian8.7
Robert MorrisCleveland St,2.4
Sacramento St.Portland St.1.7
Saint Joseph’sSaint Louis-6.4
San FranciscoSan Diego9.4
Santa ClaraSaint Mary’s-5.6
SeattleCal Baptist4.2
Seton HallSt. John’s2.0
South DakotaWestern Illinois2.5
South Dakota St.St. Thomas3.3
Southeast Missouri St.SIU Edwardsville-2.0
Southern Miss.Appalachian St.7.2
Southern UtahUT Rio Grande Valley13.7
St. BonaventureMassachusetts0.4
St. Francis PAStonehill1.8
StanfordUtah0.8
SyracuseBoston College8.7
TCUTexas Tech2.2
Tennessee St.Little Rock3.6
Texas A&M-CommerceIncarnate Word8.3
Texas St.Troy-2.7
The CitadelSamford-3.4
TowsonCharleston-1.6
UABUTSA22.6
UC Santa BarbaraUC San Diego12.0
UNC WilmingtonHampton17.2
UNLVSan Diego St-2.6
UT ArlingtonStephen F. Austin-3.2
UT MartinMorehead St.1.9
Utah St.Fresno St.13.1
Utah ValleyUtah Tech8.4
UTEPRice2.0
VCULa Salle11.1
VillanovaMarquette-0.5
VMIEast Tennessee St.-2.0
WagnerMerrimack9.0
Wake ForestVirginia Tech-2.3
Weber St.Northern Arizona6.0
Western CarolinaFurman-9.7
Wichita St.East Carolina9.7
WinthropUNC Asheville0.2
WoffordUNC Greensboro1.3
WyomingNew Mexico-4.3
XavierConnecticut-4.2
Youngstown St.Purdue Ft. Wayne3.3

March 24, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 24, 2022

Thursday, March 24, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
GonzagaArkansas10.2
VillanovaMichigan4.0
DukeTexas Tech-0.2
ArizonaHouston1.3

March 23, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics For Sweet 16

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:42 am

The 2022 edition of the PiRate Bracketnomics fared rather well compared to a large number of other options when looking for bracket-filling strategies. Obviously, neither our system nor any others pick perfect brackets or even ones where we pick 15 of the 16 teams in the Sweet 16.

We still have three of our Final Four and five of our Elite 8 still alive, as well as our picks for the National Championship Game.

We did not pick Saint Peter’s to be the real shocker, so our system missed that one entirely this year. Kentucky’s numbers were just incredibly better than the Peacocks, but the Wildcats looked like deer in the headlights all night in that game. St. Peter’s looked like a clearly superior team when they dismissed Murray State two days later.

Miami of Florida and Iowa State were somewhat of a surprise to us as well, but the Hurricanes’ ball-hawking defense countered being outrebounded by 10 and nine in their two wins. Iowa State relied on excellent half-court defense to get to this round.

The Sweet 16 is like the advances round of TV game shows. You know the type. In the first round, the questions are a little easier, but after the commercial break, the next round brings more difficult questions, and the strong separate themselves from the weak. In the Sweet 16, usually seven of the eight winners will be clearly superior to their victims, while there will be one new surprise making the Elite 8. We previously pointed out that one team that does not have our acceptable national championship resume will sneak into the Final Four. It doesn’t always happen, but like UCLA last year, usually one team will win games three and four in their tournament to make it to the third weekend in the big dome stadium.

Let’s take a look at the most important Bracketnomics numbers for each of the 16 teams.

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateOld R+T
Arizona71958.135.334.541.70.356.617.6
Arkansas541458.230.529.946.50.386.912.7
Duke44358.237.031.946.40.293.912.3
Gonzaga1957.237.429.241.60.317.021.2
Houston101056.534.237.744.00.2914.122.0
Iowa St.160560.331.928.150.60.281.33.9
Kansas62661.836.033.547.10.326.213.3
Miami (Fla.)1812157.934.422.753.20.29-5.4-3.0
Michigan197761.833.930.950.50.307.112.3
North Carolina204259.036.430.748.00.309.616.0
Providence325857.635.030.447.00.382.78.4
Purdue28960.138.835.148.70.3911.819.3
Saint Peter’s2252849.535.532.143.50.384.68.9
Texas Tech46161.032.233.244.00.366.318.1
UCLA121359.435.331.747.30.3010.516.9
Villanova83060.836.231.248.60.306.511.6

To briefly summarize what this data above means: O-Eff and D-Eff are the schedule strength-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The fat numbers are to have an O-Eff in the top 10 and a D-Eff in the top 20.

SOS is our own PiRate Ratings strength of schedule. A SOS of 55.0 is the minimum number to be considered a real national title contender. Going back to the beginning of the then 64-team tournament format, no team with an SOS below 55.0 has won the title.

37+3pt is the threshold for three-point shooting percentage. If it is north of 37%, the team with this big number will force defenses to spread out and open up the middle for easy two-point shots. Overall 3-point percentages have dropped a little in the last few years since the stripe was moved back a few inches.

OReb% is the percentage of missed shots rebounded by the offense. 37% is also the beginning point of excellence. If a team rebounds three out of every eight shots they miss, they can shoot 40% from the field and still win. If this same team shoots 45%, they can cut down the nets after the final game.

-45% vs.2pt is the defensive field goal percentage inside the 3-point line. If a defense allows less than 45% of the 2-point shots to be made, they have a championship-level defense.

FT Rate37 is the free throw ratio. If a team takes 3 foul shot attempts for every 8 field goal attempts, this team has an offense that forces defenses to grab because the offense is too potent.

The last two columns are our own unique R+T ratings. The new one is rate based on Four Factors data, while the old one is a counting stat. We don’t yet have a threshold for the new R+T, but the old R+T has been helping us pick winners in the Big Dance for two decades. If the R+T is 15 or better, this is a team that consistently goes on big scoring spurts, the type that frequently puts games away. 12.5 to 15 is really good. 8 to 12.5 is fairly good. 5-8 is so-so. Under 5 is not good, and below 0 is a 100% no go for the Final Four.

Let’s take a look at the eight Sweet 16 games

Gonzaga vs. Arkansas: Gonzaga has the best overall Bracketnomics resume, as they did last year. Their schedule strength is a mild issue but well within the bounds of a potential national champion. Yet, the Bulldogs have not looked their best in either NCAA Tournament win. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman is worth about 7-10 more points for his team than Penny Hardaway is for Memphis, and if that’s the case, The Razorbacks are good enough to pull off the big upset–if Gonzaga continues to play at a subpar level. There’s the rub. I don’t see Gonzaga coming out flat in this game. Their narrow escape in the Round of 32 should wake the Bulldogs up. Gonzaga’s numbers are clearly superior to Arkansas. Go with the Zags in a potential double digit win.

Villanova vs. Michigan: There is an interesting set of data for this game, where both teams have advantages and disadvantages. Michigan has a better inside presence, and the Wolverines figure to capitalize inside with a few extra baskets in their offensive halfcourt. Villanova’s overall offense is a bit too strong for Michigan’s defense, so the Wildcats’ perimeter is going to penetrate Michigan’s defense for easier shots than Michigan figures to take. Overall, Villanova has a slight advantage in the Bracketnomics data, but the advantage is slim. Let’s go with the Wildcats in a close one.

Duke vs. Texas Tech: Duke’s excellent offense faces Texas Tech’s number one defense–this should make for an exciting game. Usually, when a superior offense plays a superior defense, if all else is equal the superior offense wins more often than not. All else is not equal. If not for this being Coach K’s final year, and it looks like Duke has been benefiting from more than 50% of the 50-50 calls, this would be an easy selection, as the Red Raiders have a better overall team. On a Sweet 16 stage, maybe the referees will be more likely to get calls made correctly with hopes of being chosen for the Final Four, so Duke won’t get that benefit. If so, this might be the finale for Coach K. Texas Tech is just a bit better.

Arizona vs. Houston: What we have here is a failure to see a decisive favorite. Both teams have Final Four resumes and are clearly better than most of the other teams left in the Big Dance. The only issue in this game is the fact that a portion of Houston’s great numbers came with the addition of two former key starters that were lost to season-ending injuries earlier in the season. With their roster intact, this might have been the Houston team to do what Elvin Hayes and Don Chaney couldn’t do in the late 1960’s or what Phi Slama Jama couldn’t do in the mid 1980’s. Arizona doesn’t have the same amount of tournament experience that Houston has, as the Cougars made the Final Four last year. That’s the one thing that concerns us. Kelvin Sampson knows how to prepare a team to pay on the big stage. Arizona is the better team, but Sampson is worth a few extra points–just enough to have a 50-50 shot at the mild upset. I have to pick somebody here, but honestly, it can only be a hunch, as the Bracketnomics show this game as dead even. I’ll go with Sampson to defeat the Pac-12 Goliath by one or two points or in overtime.

Purdue vs. Saint Peter’s: Saint Peter’s has played incredible defense in their two wins, and if they could stop Oscar Tshiebwe and company, they have a chance to limit Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. But, doing so might allow Jaden Ivey to showcase his exceptional talents on the big stage. Purdue has not made the Final Four during the Gene Keady-Matt Painter era. The Boilermakers in the past had issues with R+T Ratings. This Purdue team does not have that issue, and they might run over the Peacocks like a runaway train. I think Cinderella experiences Midnight in this round, and Purdue wins by double digits.

Kansas vs. Providence: Ed Cooley has done an incredible job at Providence, but he is facing a team coming to its peak in efficiency, and Kansas is clearly the superior team across the board. With Remy Martin at full strength, the Jayhawks are better than their Bracketnomics Data indicates. Martin makes KU the best team in the Dance, and I expect Rock Chalk Jayhawk to keep advancing.

UCLA vs. North Carolina: College basketball royalty clashes in this one, and I don’t see this game being a mismatch like the 1968 National Championship Game. Looking at the Bracketnomics data, the two teams are evenly matched. There are secondary and tertiary data in this science, including tournament experience by players and coach. In all but one respect, the Bruins have the advantage in these extras.

Carolina’s one advantage is having an inside force that can dominate in the paint. Mick Cronin is coaching in his 13th NCAA Tournament and coming off a Final Four appearance with most of his key contributors returning. Hubert Davis is coaching in his first NCAA Tournament. That’s enough to pick UCLA to return to the Elite 8.

Miami (Fla.) vs. Iowa St.: This is the unique game in this round, as neither team has an acceptable Final Four Bracketnomics Resume. As previously mentioned, usually one of the four teams in the Final Four does not have the blueprint we use to pick our brackets. At least one team will make the Elite 8.

Iowa State has struggled to generate offense for long stretches of games, and they have had to rely on their defense to keep games close until the offense got on track. Miami’s small but very quick roster might be able to force the Cyclones into playing a style of ball they are not equipped to play. Let’s go with the U to become Elite. Jim Larranaga took George Mason to a Final Four.

March 18, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 19, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:07 pm

Saturday’s Games–NCAA, NIT, CBI, and The Basketball Classic

Saturday, March 19, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
BaylorNorth Carolina7.3
KansasCreighton9.0
TennesseeMichigan5.4
ProvidenceRichmond3.5
UCLASaint Mary’s4.6
Murray St.Saint Peter’s9.0
ArkansasNew Mexico St.7.9
GonzagaMemphis12.0
Texas A&MOregon3.9
Wake ForestVCU4.8
BYUNorthern Iowa6.7
DrakePurdue Ft. Wayne9.5
Stephen F. AustinUNC Asheville5.7
Middle TennesseeCal Baptist6.8
OhioRice5.9
UTEPWestern Illinois6.6
PortlandNew Orleans8.2

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Baylor91461.134.636.349.528.511.417.4
N. Carolina276458.036.230.448.329.610.015.7
Kansas62961.835.533.447.932.85.212.1
Creighton1241858.630.728.643.526.0-1.84.0
Tennessee36361.835.932.845.829.68.513.9
Michigan199161.634.031.250.828.97.812.5
Providence317957.534.330.546.638.52.17.4
Richmond6810454.833.722.450.030.9-3.41.5
UCLA151259.435.129.847.336.85.717.3
Saint Mary’s63957.335.027.846.023.97.313.2
Murray St.354048.435.336.048.331.315.224.0
Saint Peter’s2593448.335.332.043.537.15.09.0
Arkansas401658.430.730.846.437.97.112.8
N. Mexico St.877350.732.633.745.634.88.114.5
Gonzaga1756.937.929.041.629.87.221.8
Memphis503157.335.937.545.338.46.711.7

Bracketnomics Predictions

Baylor vs. North Carolina

Baylor is just a tad stronger across the board and has a lot more NCAA Tournament experience on the bench and on the court.  Baylor should win but not by a large margin.

Kansas vs. Creighton

This has all the looks of a large margin victory for the Jayhawks   Creighton’s offense looks to be in trouble against Kansas’s defense, and spurtability heavily favors KU.

Tennessee vs. Michigan

This should be a close game with several lead changes.  Michigan’s interior defense may be a tad vulnerable to Tennessee’s inside muscle, but, the Wolverines’ offense is considerably better overall than Tennessee’s offense.  Schedule strength and R+T Ratings are basically a wash.  Solely on the interior defense, Tennessee gets the nod.

Providence vs. Richmond

Can Richmond make the Sweet 16 with an R+T Rating that shows the Spiders receive little or no Spurtability?  Providence is not a pushover, but the Friars are most likely not going to advance past the Sweet 16.  Providence has the advantage in every one of these stats.  Richmond beat Iowa by playing a much better half court game than the Big Ten Tournament champs.  Providence’s win over South Dakota St. was a little more hustle points over half court game, and it gets really difficult for a team to keep winning the half court game over and over, especially when the other team has the decided Spurtability advantage.  Look for the Friars to advance.

UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s

This game could stay close for quite a long time.  UCLA has the clear-cut edge in the essential stats, but the edge is not large enough to call the Bruins a prohibitive favorite.  The key here is the FT rate, where UCLA might be a little quicker and force SMC to commit more than their usual number of fouls.  UCLA needs to keep its starters on the floor more than the average tournament team, and the Gaels do not figure to force key players to go to the bench with foul trouble.  Give the edge to the Bruins but don’t expect a big blowout.

Murray St. vs. Saint Peter’s

In all but one respect, these teams are rather evenly matched.  Murray State has a huge R+T Rating advantage, 15 points to be exact in the old counting stat version and three times more in the rate stat version.  What this means is that the Racers are likely to enjoy one major spurt or multiple smaller spurts and pull away from the Peacocks at some point in the game.  Saint Peter’s won’t have the ability to play catch-up after a large spurt.  The Racers will be an interesting Sweet 16 team.

Arkansas vs. New Mexico St.

This game has special meaning with yours truly, ye old PiRate Captain.  Five years ago, when he was the head coach at Nevada, I called Eric Musselman the best Mid-Major head coach and a sure thing success wherever he ended up in a power conference.  When he was hired by Arkansas, I predicted he would return the Razorbacks to the prominence they enjoyed under Eddie Sutton and Nolan Richardson and have Arkansas competing for a shot at the Final Four within five years.  He is only in year three, and he almost made the Final Four last year.  

New Mexico State head coach Chris Jans is my current top Mid-Major coach in college basketball.  It is my belief that when he gets a power five coaching job, he too will produce the results Muss is producing in Fayetteville.

Now, about this game: Arkansas has a bit too much defensive abilities for the Aggies to consistently score in this game.  The difference in schedule strength and the slight evidence that the Razorbacks have a little more quickness is enough to call this one in Arkansas’s favor.  Don’t discount NMSU; Jans can coach undermanned talent and keep games close.  The Aggies can keep this game close and even have a chance to pull the upset, but the Razorbacks have about a 65% chance of winning this game.  Arky goes to the Sweet 16 again.

Gonzaga vs. Memphis

Don’t automatically dismiss Memphis in this game.  While Gonzaga has a decisive Bracketnomics advantage, Memphis has two superior aspects that can be used to exploit the 1-seed, and both work together to strengthen the advantages.  

Memphis has an exceptional offensive rebounding advantage in this game.  The Tigers are one of a small handful that have an O Reb% in excess of the magical 37%.  Memphis also exceeds the 37% margin in FT rate, which shows the Tigers have explosive quickness to the rim.  If Gonzaga gets into foul trouble in this game, all their other advantages will be neutralized.

Gonzaga is still the pick here, but this game should be a lot closer than expected, and Memphis will have a chance to pull off the big upset if Gonzaga fouls too much.

March 17, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 17, 2022

Thursday, March 17, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
Colorado St.Michigan-2.1
ProvidenceSouth Dakota St.2.9
Boise St.Memphis-1.9
BaylorNorfolk St.20.2
TennesseeLongwood16.6
IowaRichmond10.2
GonzagaGeorgia St.23.1
North CarolinaMarquette1.9
ConnecticutNew Mexico St.9.0
KentuckySaint Peter’s17.3
Saint Mary’sIndiana2.3
San Diego St.Creighton2.3
ArkansasVermont4.2
Murray St.San Francisco-2.3
UCLAAkron14.9
KansasTexas Southern18.7
Fresno St.Eastern Washington11.8

March 15, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics Analysis 2022

Analytics Based Bracket Picking Method–Updated for 2022

Welcome to the PiRate Ratings Bracket Picking Analysis for the 2022 NCAA Tournament. If you read yesterday’s tutorial post and earned your PhD in Bracketnomics, then you are ready to see all the numbers and pick the brackets in your own way. We will show you our picks as well, but you might do better using our data than we do.

Let’s get right to it with the table of all the numbers. We have divided the numbers into the most important, the moderately important, the the extras used to find the winner in very close matchups.

Team–Most ImportantO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37
Akron11316646.835.730.746.939.7
Alabama149461.930.835.649.233.6
Arizona52058.235.434.541.935.1
Arkansas401658.430.730.846.437.9
Auburn24859.232.033.142.631.6
Baylor91461.134.636.349.528.5
Boise St.761755.834.830.647.635.0
Bryant15421843.730.833.346.232.2
Cal St. Fullerton14416447.533.030.547.536.0
Chattanooga589550.534.632.750.726.7
Colgate7920345.140.326.447.526.6
Colorado St.208355.535.822.050.430.4
Connecticut213558.535.337.942.830.6
Creighton1241858.630.728.643.526.0
Davidson1115252.538.623.848.032.0
Delaware10021248.335.227.047.033.9
Duke74457.636.831.846.928.6
Georgia St.20111448.932.934.343.829.3
Gonzaga1756.937.929.041.629.8
Houston101156.034.137.843.528.7
Illinois233060.736.733.445.431.7
Indiana912159.033.926.943.433.5
Iowa27759.032.132.150.030.4
Iowa St1511059.736.828.250.728.1
Jacksonville St.13217846.338.830.047.130.9
Kansas62961.835.533.447.932.8
Kentucky42760.234.937.947.127.2
Longwood11519143.338.034.651.834.9
Loyola (Chi.)422254.238.325.146.931.7
LSU89559.531.933.847.733.0
Marquette624659.334.722.446.226.8
Memphis503157.335.937.545.338.4
Miami (Fla.)1715757.035.323.453.928.8
Michigan199161.634.031.250.828.9
Michigan St.385360.837.830.747.930.4
Montana St.14712945.636.927.347.638.7
Murray St.354048.435.336.048.331.3
New Mexico St.877350.732.633.745.634.8
Norfolk St.19016041.334.830.544.537.7
North Carolina276458.036.230.448.329.6
Notre Dame298456.838.022.549.327.0
Ohio St.1313160.037.328.846.233.5
Providence317957.534.330.546.638.5
Purdue310060.039.135.249.236.3
Richmond6810454.833.722.450.030.9
Rutgers1074358.533.629.346.526.9
Saint Mary’s63957.335.027.846.023.9
Saint Peter’s2593448.335.332.043.537.1
San Diego St.157256.535.829.643.131.3
San Francisco451956.235.430.448.128.9
Seton Hall752659.034.033.044.731.4
South Dakota St.1222048.144.924.449.833.8
TCU802460.330.437.847.931.2
Tennessee36361.835.932.845.829.6
Texas321360.232.331.846.132.3
Texas A&M-CC28718140.233.535.349.936.7
Texas Southern27010744.531.733.845.232.7
Texas Tech65160.831.433.344.336.1
UAB288950.637.933.946.828.5
UCLA151259.435.129.847.336.8
USC474956.335.433.841.730.9
Vermont447445.936.424.644.926.4
Villanova82861.035.930.948.230.5
Virginia Tech185557.539.328.149.423.7
Wisconsin493860.131.225.949.932.3
Wright St.10826244.832.931.251.331.3
Wyoming546654.534.325.548.335.8
Yale20310349.033.025.750.632.6

O-Eff = Offensive efficiency & D-Eff = Defensive efficiency

SOS= PiRate Ratings Strength of Schedule

37+ 3pt = The 3-point shooting percentage where 37% or above is the key number

OReb% = Offensive rebounding rate where 37% or above it also the key number

-45% vs. 2pt = Defensive 2-point field goal percentage where less than 45% is the key number FT Rate = the percentage of free throw attempts per field goal attempts, where again, above 37% is the key number

Team Moderately ImportantR + T New RateOld R+TScore MargFG% DiffWin StrkPre25Champions
Akron6.412.18.43.88T
Alabama4.97.53.60.64Yesx
Arizona7.017.917.110.911 & 9R T
Arkansas7.112.88.42.99 & 9Yesx
Auburn5.912.511.75.519YesR
Baylor11.417.412.93.915YesR
Boise St.11.215.07.92.214R T
Bryant1.76.45.22.49 & 7T
Cal St. Fullerton4.38.54.10.98T
Chattanooga8.715.210.14.65 & 5R T
Colgate1.78.595.115R T
Colorado St.-2.16.185.811x
Connecticut12.119.6103.55 & 5Yesx
Creighton-1.84.03.15.56x
Davidson2.712.16.86.415R
Delaware-3.61.33.94.15T
Duke4.112.713.17.27 & 7YesR
Georgia St.7.811.95.8-110T
Gonzaga7.221.822.514.817 & 6YesR T
Houston14.322.216.99.612 & 6YesR T
Illinois7.712.88.23.76YesR
Indiana1.87.85.66.86x
Iowa4.811.712.52.67 & 5T
Iowa St1.23.83.51.112x
Jacksonville St.3.410.67.16.410R
Kansas5.212.110.56.38 & 5YesR T
Kentucky15.724.113.57.47 & 6Yesx
Longwood14.920.311.22.611 & 8T
Loyola (Chi.)3.111.212.17.410T
LSU5.912.29.65.312x
Marquette-9.8-4.53.54.37x
Memphis6.711.777.56 & 6Yesx
Miami (Fla.)-5.01.33.81.29x
Michigan7.812.54.92.13Yesx
Michigan St.3.08.53.74.19x
Montana St.4.911.48.55.411 & 6R T
Murray St.15.224.0176.920 & 7R T
New Mexico St.8.114.58.36.610 & 5R T
Norfolk St.4.914.211.49.26 & 6R T
North Carolina10.015.75.81.96 & 5Yesx
Notre Dame-2.53.85.73.16 & 5x
Ohio St.-1.06.08.35.55Yesx
Providence2.17.44.82.68 & 8R
Purdue12.119.2116.68 & 6Yesx
Richmond-3.41.53.406T
Rutgers3.47.62.12.94x
Saint Mary’s7.313.29.33.77 & 6x
Saint Peter’s5.09.05.14.87T
San Diego St.4.410.57.65.16 & 5x
San Francisco8.714.210.13.310x
Seton Hall5.210.16.62.46 & 6x
South Dakota St.2.313.213.38.721R T
TCU12.516.93.11.87x
Tennessee8.513.910.437 & 5YesT
Texas7.210.18.72.96 & 5Yesx
Texas A&M-CC10.215.872.88T
Texas Southern4.78.43.74.16T
Texas Tech9.617.511.49.46x
UAB10.719.214.45.57T
UCLA5.717.311.63.46 & 5Yesx
USC6.312.86.76.513 & 6x
Vermont7.817.914.68.314 & 8R T
Villanova4.811.59.52.96 & 5YesT
Virginia Tech2.47.48.44.26 & 5T
Wisconsin3.47.34.2-1.47 & 6R
Wright St.1.85.34.41.57 & 5T
Wyoming1.48.77.54.48 & 6x
Yale-0.73.63.52.17T

R+T New Rate =The new R+T rating using rate stats over counting stats (still experimental)

Old R+T = The original R+T Rating where anything over 17.5 is exceptional, 15 to 17.5 is quite good, 12.5 to 15 is good, 8-12.5 is okay, 5-8 is fair, under 5 is poor, and negative is a loser

Score Marg = Scoring margin where over 8 is very good and over 10 is great

FG% Diff = Field Goal Percentage difference (Offense FG% – Defense FG%) where over 7 is very good and over 10 is exceptional

Win Strk = Best winning streak or streaks during the season (if a team didn’t win 6 in a row in the regular season, how will they do it against the best teams?)

Pre25 = Preseason Top 25 pick (almost every past national champion was in the preseason top 25)

Champions (R = regular season conference champion/co-champion & T = Conference Tournament Champion)

Team–ExtrasCoach Exp.Seniors 8Juniors 81/3 Clutch?F/C 12/7?2 F/C 20/12?Dbl Fig#
Akron3023YY3
Alabama4221NN3
Arizona0111YY4
Arkansas4 E8511NN4
Auburn10 F4131YY4
Baylor9 CH23xNN3
Boise St.2511NY3
Bryant0511NN3
Cal St. Fullerton1421NY2
Chattanooga0511NN3
Colgate2423NN5
Colorado St.0241NN2
Connecticut3413YN3
Creighton9 E831xYY3
Davidson9 E8323YY4
Delaware032xNN4
Duke35 CH211YY5
Georgia St.1411NN3
Gonzaga21 2R221YY5
Houston17 F453NNY5
Illinois5411YY4
Indiana0421YY3
Iowa10211YY3
Iowa St3431NN2
Jacksonville St.3431NN3
Kansas22 CH521NY4
Kentucky20 CH241YY5
Longwood0321NN3
Loyola (Chi.)0521NN2
LSU0201YY4
Marquette8 F4211YN2
Memphis032xYY3
Miami (Fla.)9 F4311NN4
Michigan1 E8301YY4
Michigan St.23 CH33xNN1
Montana St.042xNN3
Murray St.2121YY3
New Mexico St.2321NY2
Norfolk St.1341NN3
North Carolina0213YY4
Notre Dame14 E8601YY3
Ohio St.6 E8411YY2
Providence5613NY4
Purdue13 E8311YY4
Richmond2 S16611YY3
Rutgers2411NN3
Saint Mary’s7 S1642xNN4
Saint Peter’s125xNN2
San Diego St.2511NN1
San Francisco0413YN3
Seton Hall4431NN1
South Dakota St.1131NN2
TCU12 E8131NN3
Tennessee25 F4131NN2
Texas4 2R62xNN3
Texas A&M-CC044xYY2
Texas Southern471xNN0
Texas Tech053xNN1
UAB2341NN4
UCLA12 F4431NN4
USC4 E8241YY4
Vermont3621NY2
Villanova17 CH431NN4
Virginia Tech6321NY3
Wisconsin3 S16221NN3
Wright St.4053YN3
Wyoming0301YY3
Yale2241NN2

Coach Exp = The number of past NCAA Tournament appearances for the head coach and if he got to the Sweet 6, Elite 8, Final 4, CHampionship or Runnerup

Seniors8/Juniors8 = The number of seniors or juniors among the current top 8 players (not as important with the extra Covid year)

1/3Clutch? = Does the team have 1 go to guy or 3 co-go to guys that can hit the crucial basket to win?

F/C 12/7 or 2F/C 20/12 = Does the team have an inside player that averages 12 points and 7 rebounds per game or two that combine for 20 points and 12 rebounds per game?

DblFig# = The number of double figure scorers

Here is the PiRate Ratings Bracket

The event you’ve all been waiting for: I wish I could say it’s this feature, but your madness is directed at the actual games in March (and April).  Hopefully, this guide will guide you in filling out your brackets as we show you our analysis of the pertinent data.  Some of you will take our information and perform better with it making your own analysis.  Feel free to do so; we sometimes cannot see the forest for the trees.

Using our system laid out in Monday’s tutorial, we isolated on seven teams with National Championship Resumes in the 2022 NCAA Tournament plus one more team on the cusp.

Arizona

Baylor

Gonzaga

Houston

Kansas

Kentucky

UCLA

Almost National Championship Resume (1)

Auburn

It has been 31 tournaments since a team from outside the power conferences has won the national championship.  The Power Conference teams with the best resumes are:

Arizona

Baylor

Kansas

Kentucky

UCLA

Houston is a borderline power conference representative, but the American Athletic Conference is not what it once was.  With Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark, the Cougars would be close to Gonzaga in overall power, but they have not been the same since their season-ending injuries.

Here is our take on the first round of the Tournament.  It is how we will fill out our bracket.  Every year, we receive a comment from somebody telling us how they used our data to outperform our bracket.

First Round NCAA Tournament Matchups

West Region

Gonzaga vs. Georgia St.: Not much to discuss here.  This should be a major blowout win for Gonzaga.  Georgia State will struggle to score points until the Bulldog reserves get mop-up duty, while the Zags could score close to 1.5 points per possession before the starters come out.

Boise St. vs. Memphis: As most 8/9 games should be, this is an interesting game where the two teams are evenly matched.  Memphis has oh so better key stats, and in close games, if the predicted weaker team has a considerably superior R+T rating, we will go with the underdog.  Boise State’s R+T is better but not by much.  We’ll go with Memphis is a close one.

Connecticut vs. New Mexico St.: New Mexico State  coach Chris Jans is our current number one mid-major head coach ready to be offered a big time job.  He has twice taken the Aggies to near major upsets in the opening round.  The last time NMSU was in this situation, they came within a blown referee’s call of upsetting Auburn.  The Tigers went to the Final Four that year.

However, this matchup with Connecticut is not favorable.  We are always leery of the Huskies.  They are the one school that has won the National Championship without having the proper analytical resume, and they have done it twice!  Their resume this year is very similar to the two times they won the title.  They are superior in all respects to the Aggies and should win by double digits.

Arkansas vs. Vermont: This game could be a lot closer than expected.  Vermont’s offense is just as efficient as Arkansas’s, and the Catamounts have a considerably better R+T rating.  A 12.5 points per game tougher schedule favors Arkansas by enough juice to emerge victorious, but it may be by single digits.

Alabama vs. Rutgers/Notre Dame: You get to wait until Thursday morning to submit your brackets, so you will know the winner of all the First Four games.  We can only predict it today.  We think Rutgers has a slight edge in the game in Dayton, because Notre Dame’s R+T rating is too low.  In early games, it doesn’t matter as much if the opponent’s R+T isn’t a good one, and Rutgers’ R+T is okay but not great.

When it comes to playing Alabama Friday, this may be one of the hardest games to figure.  Alabama plays like Tarzan one game and like Jane the next.  The Tide can score points when they are clicking, but they fail to click one game out of three.  Their R+T Rating is mediocre, and they don’t defend well in the paint.  The one superior factor in favor of the Tide is the nation’s strongest schedule.  Whichever team Bama plays in this game, they will have faced a stronger team in at least a dozen prior games.  We don’t expect Alabama to advance far in this tournament, but they should get out of this round with a win.

Texas Tech vs. Montana St.: They key to winning college basketball at the highest level is to have a superior offense and very good defense.  Texas Tech has the best defense in the nation with an average offense.  We don’t expect the Red Raiders to contend for the Final Four, but in early rounds, their resume is scary against teams not in power conferences.  

Montana State may stay in this game a little longer than expected, as Tech might struggle offensively at the start of the game until the nerves settle down.  Once Tech hits their stride, they will hold MSU to less than .8 points per possession for the middle 20-25 minutes of the game.  It might not look pretty, but TTU will eventually run away from the Bobcats.

Michigan St. vs. Davidson: Davidson has a little more overall talent now than they had when Steph Curry led the Wildcats to the Elite 8.  The difference is this Davidson team lacks the overall quickness to replicate the former success.  Additionally, they face a team that plays the same type of game as they do but with overall better athletes.

Michigan State has been upset early by teams that were quicker and unable to take advantage of the quickness.  DC cannot do this.  The Wildcats’ only chance is to hope to dominate in the paint both in points and rebounds, and The Spartans are not the team that will allow this.  Even though this is not the best inside presence during Tom Izzo’s reign in East Lansing, Sparty has just a little too much power for Davidson.  Michigan State will win by five to 12 points.

Duke vs. Cal St. Fullerton:  Coach K’s last team is really not talented enough to get to New Orleans this year, but the Blue Devils will likely play above their talent level until they are put out.  In this first game, the Blue Devils will score points rapidly against a weak team defense.  Fullerton won’t be able to keep the Blue Devil offense from getting easy shots inside of six feet.  Look for the Blue Devils to top their scoring average and coast to an easy victory in this round.

East Region

Baylor vs. Norfolk St.:  The MEAC representative has won opening round games in the Big Dance before, but it was as a #15 seed against a #2.  Norfolk State was oh so close to getting a #15 seed at the expense of Delaware, but they came up short.  In most recent years, the MEAC champ has been placed in Dayton.  Had NSU been put there this year, they would have been prohibitive favorites over any other 16-seed.  

The question now becomes, “can Nofolk State do what UMBC did against Virginia?”  The answer is “no”, because Baylor isn’t Virginia.  They are the defending champs, and even though the Bears are not as good as last year, they still have Final Four talent.  BU will win by around 20-25 points, more if the starters stay in longer than needed.

North Carolina vs. Marquette:  We can make this short and sweet–Marquette’s R+T is an eliminator.  ‘Nuf Sed.  They would be our pick to lose even if they were a top four seed.  Our number one rule is to play against a team with a negative R+T rating.

Saint Mary’s vs. Wyoming/Indiana: Like the region above, you will know who Saint Mary’s will be playing on Thursday.  Ironically, this play-in game may be the most exciting game before the Sweet 16.  There is very little difference between the Hoosiers and Cowboys.  Only because Indiana won’t travel very far to play this game will we give the nod to the Hoosiers.

On Thursday, Saint Mary’s will have a tough time avoiding the upset, because they are a tad weak offensively in the low post area.  Playing at home, the Gaels were able to withstand Gonzaga’s great inside presence, but in the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas, the Bulldogs exploited SMC over and over again in a double-digit win.  We will stil pick Saint Mary’s to win this game, because their opponent will have to fly from Dayton to Portland and play less than 48 hours after they played in Dayton.

UCLA vs. Akron: UCLA has national championship talent, but the Bruins have liabilities that can be exploited.  Unfortunately for the Zips, they do not have the necessary inside strength to exploit the Bruins.  They do have characteristics needed to keep a game with UCLA close for some time, but the Bruins will advance.

Texas vs. Virginia Tech: Texas is the most vulnerable 6-seed in the tournament.  The Longhorns have not adjusted to Chris Beard’s system in year one, and there may be a little dissension within the ranks.  Virginia Tech is the exact opposite.  Mike Young was one of our A+ Mid-major coaches ready for the Big Time when he was at Wofford, and he has not disappointed in his short time in Blacksburg.  Virginia Tech’s players have totally bought in to the system and are peaking at the right time.

Our criteria shows this game to be close to a tossup.  The Hokies have the superior offense, but the Longhorns have the superior defense with more superiority than Va. Tech’s offensive superiority.   Texas has the edge in schedule strength and R+T rating, so we will pick the Longhorns in a squeaker, but this one is ripe for an upset if you are the type that goes for more upsets than average.

Purdue vs. Yale:  Yale caught Princeton on a cold shooting day and upset the Tigers to get a ticket to the Dance.  Their ticket is for one game.  Short of hitting about 15 three-point shots in 25 attempts, there is no way the Bulldogs can stop the inside dominance of the Boilermakers.  The two-headed monster in the low post will likely score 40 points and pull down 15-20 rebounds unless Coach Matt Painter goes to his third team.  While former Gene Keady assistants have never made it to the Final Four, and neither did Keady, those teams from the past did not have the R+T rating that this Purdue team has.  This is PU’s best chance to go to the Final Four since they did so under Lee Rose in 1980.

Murray St. vs. San Francisco: Now it’s time to upset a lot of people in the Bluegrass.  There are a lot of fans heading up to Indianapolis for the weekend hoping to see the two top teams from the Commonwealth face off.  Our criteria shows the Dons to be a slightly better team than the Racers, mostly because Murray State’s schedule was suspect.  USF played a schedule almost as strong as a Power Conference team, and they have multiple wins over teams in this tournament.  Murray State’s biggest win was against Memphis, when the Tigers were not playing well.  Their other big game was a double-digit loss to Auburn, when Auburn was getting ready to go on a run.

We think the schedule strength makes USF’s numbers superior, and we will go with the 10-seed to win in what will be considered an upset.  We think the Dons should be favored.

Kentucky vs. Saint Peter’s: One team in this game had a weak schedule, a weak offense, and a weak inside defense.  The other team had one of the strongest schedules in the nation, one of the best defenses, a very good offense, and the best inside presence in college basketball since Bill Walton.  I bet you can predict what the prediction is here–Kentucky by as many as Coach Cal wants to win by before he removes his key players.

South Region

Arizona vs. Wright St./Bryant: We expect Wright State to win the play-in game, but even if Bryant wins, the outcome of this game will remain the same.  Arizona is much too talented to lose this game, even if the Wildcats play their worst game of the season Friday.  The Wednesday night winner must fly from Dayton to San Diego on short notice to play a UA team that is well-rested and playing just a short flight from home.

Seton Hall vs. TCU: This one is another great tossup between the 8 and 9 seeds.  TCU has the superior R+T rating, and it may be where the game is decided—with one late spurt in the second half.  We’ll take the Horned Frogs in a close one. 

Houston vs. UAB: Poor UAB.  The Blazers actually have the talent and resume to get to the Sweet 16 as long as they have the right bracket.  This one is not the right bracket.  Even without two former starters that were injured weeks ago, Houston has enough talent to get to the Sweet 16, with a good chance to make the Elite 8, and a possible chance to return to the Final Four.  If they still had their two stars, they would be a strong Final Four selection.  The Cougars match up perfectly well with UAB and can neutralize the Blazers’ key attackers.

Illinois vs. Chattanooga: The Mocs have been the darling upset pick of a lot of national media members, but we’re here to say it isn’t going to happen.  Chattanooga enjoyed an incredible season in winning the regular and tournament championships.  They just don’t have the inside defense to slow down the Illini in the paint, and they are not likely to get the Illinois frontcourt into foul trouble.  The Mocs don’t have a pressing defense strong enough to force Illinois into turnovers, so the Illini should have little difficulty winning this game by double digits.

Colorado St. vs. Michigan: Here’s another 11-seed that is clearly better than the 6-seed.  Colorado State’s R+T rating is too low, especially for a Mid-major team playing a Power Conference opponent.  Only a complete meltdown by the Maize and Blue will prevent the Wolverines from advancing.

Tennessee vs. Longwood: Volunteer Head Coach Rick Barnes has been to 25 previous NCAA Tournaments with one Final Four appearance.  He believes his current team has what it takes to go to the Final Four this year.  Tennessee’s resume should get them to the Sweet 16, but they have vulnerabilities that other teams in the South Region can exploit.  Longwood isn’t one of them.  Their schedule strength is much too low to be a factor in this game, but if they hit a bunch of three-pointers, where they are better than average, they could keep the outcome under 20 points.

Ohio St. vs. Loyola (Chi.): Before looking at this game, be advised that Ohio State is really banged up with multiple injuries, and it is unsure if they will have their full roster available.  Also, understand that Loyola will have had 12 days between games and will be fully rested but possibly a little rusted.

Loyola’s offense will find the holes in the Buckeyes’ defense, especially if Ohio State has to play a short rotation that will tire in the second half.  The Ramblers’ defense is good enough to give Ohio State’s superior offense some trouble.  It may come down to spurtability, and Loyola is the hands-down superior team in R+T.  We think Sister Jean will be smiling.

Villanova vs. Delaware: We told you yesterday that usually there is one Final Four team that gets there from outside of the perfect resume world.  It was UCLA last year.  This year’s UCLA could easily be Villanova.  The Wildcats just barely miss out on having a Final Four resume, and they quite frankly have about the best possible bracket arrangement to boot.  

Delaware is disqualified from potential upset possibilities in multiple ways–R+T rating, defense on the perimeter and in the paint, schedule strength, no inside scoring dominance, etc.

Midwest Region

Kansas vs. Texas Southern/Texas A&M-CC: Even though it does not matter in your bracket contests, we believe Texas Southern will run Texas A&M-CC into the ground in Dayton.  TAMCC has the weakest schedule strength of any NCAA Tournament team in the last 22 years!  Texas Southern is playing much better basketball in March than they did before  New Year’s, and they are 18-5 in their last 23 games.  So, we are previewing TSU against Kansas in this game.

Okay, suspense over.  KU will blow out either Texas team in this game.  Neither of the 16-seeds has enough defense to stop the Jayhawks from running up a fat score.  

San Diego St. vs. Creighton: In all but one key metric, these teams are fairly evenly matched.  That key metric is the R+T rating, and the Aztecs have a considerable advantage.  We’ll take SDSU to win thanks to a late run.

Iowa vs. Richmond: Two happy teams on Sunday, but there will only be one happy team Thursday after these two play.  Richmond will have to slow this game down to about a 60 possession game to have a chance to sneak away with an upset, but the Spiders’ R+T rating doesn’t measure up to being a winner.  Iowa will cruise to a double-digit win.

Providence vs. South Dakota St.: Providence is the better overall team in the criteria, but South Dakota State has the one ace up their sleeve in an offense that can score a lot of points in a hurry.  If the Friars come out a little tight and aren’t playing the type of basketball they normally play, they could find themselves down by a lot of points early in the game and then struggle to get in synch and get back in the game.  SDSU has the type of team that comes out loose and ready to play no matter what the stage.  If this game was in Oklahoma City or Denver, we’d take the underdog.  Buffalo will be almost like a home game for Providence, so we think the Friars sneak away with a close win.

LSU vs. Iowa St.: LSU has to go with an interim head coach for the second time in the now concluded Will Wade era.  It pains me to say that I (the Captain) was Wade’s youth coach in the early 1990’s.

It is rare for a team that finished four games under .500 to make the NCAA Tournament, but the Big 12 was quite strong this year.  Cyclone Coach T.J. Otzelberger made the South Dakota State job what it is today, and he should eventually turn the corner in Ames.  Making the Big Dance this quickly is quite an accomplishment.  Doing damage in the Dance may be a year away.  Even with an interim coach, albeit one with lots of years experience as a head coach, LSU has superior numbers and should win by around ten points.

Wisconsin vs. Colgate: This is almost a home game for the Badgers.  It’s one thing to put a Duke or Carolina in Charlotte or Greensboro when either is a number one seed, but to put the Badgers less than 100 miles from home in Milwaukee as a 3-seed is totally different.  Poor Colgate.  The Raiders are actually one of a small handful of Low Major teams that have some talent with an outside chance at an upset, but not playing UW in Milwaukee.  Colgate may hit some three-pointers to keep the game within shouting distance, but the Badgers will take the cheese in this one.

USC vs. Miami (Fla.): Even though Miami has a short flight, while USC most go from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean, there is a factor that can never be parsed.  Miami’s R+T rating is too poor to predict the Hurricanes to advance.  USC figures to have a double-digit spurt in this game, and the Trojans will advance.

Auburn vs. Jacksonville St.: There is only one fly in the ointment in saying this game should be a 30-point blowout.  JSU will be playing way over their heads to face off against an in-state rival that won’t play them in the regular season.  Coach Ray Harper is a strict disciplinarian, and his teams play intelligently and force the opponent to play that way or be exploited.

Auburn is not all that exploitable here.  The Tigers have been having shooting trouble as of late, but with the great front line, maybe the second best to Gonzaga’s, the Tigers will get numerous second and third shots on many possessions, and JSU will eventually fall by a lot of points.

Here’s how the rest of our bracket-picking goes.

Round of 32

Gonzaga over Memphis

Connecticut over Arkansas

Texas Tech over Alabama

Duke over Michigan St.

Baylor over North Carolina

UCLA over Saint Mary’s

Purdue over Texas

Kentucky over San Francisco

Arizona over TCU

Houston over Illinois

Tennessee over Michigan

Villanova over Loyola (Chi.)

Kansas over San Diego St.

Iowa over Providence

Wisconsin over LSU

Auburn over USC

Sweet 16

Gonzaga over Connecticut

Texas Tech over Duke

Baylor over UCLA

Kentucky over Purdue

Arizona over Houston

Villanova over Tennessee

Kansas over Iowa

Auburn over Wisconsin

Elite 8

Gonzaga over Texas Tech

Kentucky over Baylor

Villanova over Arizona

Kansas over Auburn

Final 4

Gonzaga over Kentucky

Kansas over Villanova

National Championship

Kansas over Gonzaga

March 8, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Tuesday’s Conference Tournaments
Atlantic Coast Conference–1st Round
Brooklyn
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Boston CollegePittsburgh2.6
ClemsonNorth Carolina St.5.0
LouisvilleGeorgia Tech1.8
Atlantic Sun Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher Seed at Home
HomeVisitorSpread
BellarmineJacksonville6.2
Big West Conference–1st Round
Henderson, NV
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Cal St. NorthridgeCal St. Bakersfield-4.6
UC DavisCal Poly6.2
Colonial Athletic Association–CHAMPIONSHIP
Washington, D.C.
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
DelawareUNC Wilmington2.5
Conference USA–1st Round
Frisco, TX
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Florida Intl.Marshall-2.5
UTSASouthern Miss.2.9
Horizon League–CHAMPIONSHIP
Indianapolis
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Northern KentuckyWright St.-1.2
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference–1st Round
Atlantic City, NJ
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
ManhattanRider-0.5
FairfieldCanisius1.9
MaristQuinnipiac2.6
Northeast Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher Seed at Home
HomeVisitorSpread
BryantWagner-2.5
Summit League–CHAMPIONSHIP
Sioux Falls, SD
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
South Dakota St.North Dakota St.6.7
West Coast Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Las Vegas
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
GonzagaSaint Mary’s11.1
Western Athletic Conference–Opening Round
Las Vegas
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
California BaptistUT Rio Grande Valley6.6
Utah ValleyChicago St.14.7

Dance Tickets Punched
1Murray St.Ohio Valley27-2
2LongwoodBig South26-6
3Loyola (Chi.)Missouri Valley25-7
4ChattanoogaSouthern27-7
5Georgia St.Sun Belt18-10

March 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Monday, March 7, 2022

Monday’s Conference Tournaments
Colonial Athletic Association–Semifinals
Charlotte
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TowsonDelaware6.5
UNC WilmingtonCharleston-2.0
Horizon League–Semifinals
Indianapolis
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Cleveland St.Wright St.-0.1
Purdue Ft. WayneNorthern Kentucky-1.2
Southern Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Asheville, NC
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
ChattanoogaFurman-0.2
Summit League–Semifinals
Sioux Falls, SD
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
South Dakota St.South Dakota8.9
North Dakota St.Oral Roberts-1.2
Sun Belt Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Pensacola, FL
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Georgia St.Louisiana1.7
West Coast Conference–Semifinals
Las Vegas
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
GonzagaSan Francisco11.7
Saint Mary’sSanta Clara5.4

Dance Tickets Punched

1Murray St.Ohio Valley27-2
2LongwoodBig South26-6
3Loyola (Chi.)Missouri Valley25-7

Monday’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateConference
1Gonzaga124.6West Coast
2Arizona120.8Pac-12
3Kentucky119.4Southeastern
4Baylor119.2Big 12
5Auburn118.4Southeastern
6Duke118.1Atlantic Coast
7Houston118.1American Athletic
8Kansas118.0Big 12
9UCLA117.7Pac-12
10Purdue117.3Big Ten
11Tennessee117.2Southeastern
12Villanova117.1Big East
13Texas Tech116.9Big 12
14Iowa116.6Big Ten
15Illinois115.5Big Ten
16LSU114.9Southeastern
17Texas114.6Big 12
18Arkansas114.5Southeastern
19Connecticut114.1Big East
20Alabama113.6Southeastern
21Saint Mary’s113.3West Coast
22San Francisco112.9West Coast
23Memphis112.7American Athletic
24Ohio St.112.7Big Ten
25Michigan112.6Big Ten
26Seton Hall112.2Big East
27North Carolina112.2Atlantic Coast
28Loyola Chicago112.0Missouri Valley
29Virginia Tech111.8Atlantic Coast
30Wisconsin111.8Big Ten
31San Diego St.111.7Mountain West
32Wake Forest111.7Atlantic Coast
33Michigan St.111.5Big Ten
34USC111.4Pac-12
35Indiana111.3Big Ten
36Oklahoma St.111.3Big 12
37Providence111.2Big East
38Oklahoma111.0Big 12
39Xavier110.9Big East
40Marquette110.9Big East
41Murray St.110.6Ohio Valley
42Boise St.110.6Mountain West
43Florida110.5Southeastern
44Colorado St.110.4Mountain West
45TCU110.2Big 12
46UAB110.1Conference USA
47Notre Dame110.1Atlantic Coast
48Mississippi St.109.9Southeastern
49Washington St.109.9Pac-12
50Iowa St.109.9Big 12
51SMU109.6American Athletic
52St. John’s109.6Big East
53BYU109.3West Coast
54Dayton109.2Atlantic 10
55VCU109.2Atlantic 10
56Davidson109.2Atlantic 10
57Miami FL109.2Atlantic Coast
58Utah St.109.2Mountain West
59Texas A&M109.1Southeastern
60Saint Louis109.0Atlantic 10
61Oregon108.8Pac-12
62West Virginia108.7Big 12
63Kansas St.108.7Big 12
64Northwestern108.7Big Ten
65Toledo108.5Mid-American
66Rutgers108.4Big Ten
67Maryland108.3Big Ten
68Creighton108.3Big East
69Missouri St.108.2Missouri Valley
70North Texas108.2Conference USA
71Colorado108.2Pac-12
72Virginia108.1Atlantic Coast
73Vermont108.1America East
74Wyoming108.1Mountain West
75Clemson107.9Atlantic Coast
76Santa Clara107.9West Coast
77South Dakota St.107.8Summit
78Vanderbilt107.6Southeastern
79Penn St.107.4Big Ten
80Belmont107.4Ohio Valley
81St. Bonaventure107.3Atlantic 10
82Syracuse107.3Atlantic Coast
83Fresno St.107.3Mountain West
84Towson107.2Colonial Athletic
85Furman107.2Southern
86Chattanooga107.0Southern
87Wichita St.106.8American Athletic
88Drake106.6Missouri Valley
89Florida St.106.5Atlantic Coast
90Arizona St.106.5Pac-12
91Richmond106.5Atlantic 10
92South Carolina106.2Southeastern
93UNLV106.1Mountain West
94DePaul106.1Big East
95Iona106.0Metro Atlantic
96New Mexico St.105.8Western Athletic
97UCF105.8American Athletic
98Cincinnati105.7American Athletic
99Northern Iowa105.6Missouri Valley
100Mississippi105.6Southeastern
101Tulane105.3American Athletic
102Grand Canyon105.3Western Athletic
103Bradley105.2Missouri Valley
104Louisiana Tech105.1Conference USA
105Minnesota104.9Big Ten
106Stanford104.7Pac-12
107Princeton104.3Ivy League
108Utah104.1Pac-12
109Buffalo104.0Mid-American
110Western Kentucky103.9Conference USA
111Middle Tennessee103.8Conference USA
112Ohio103.8Mid-American
113Washington103.6Pac-12
114Nevada103.6Mountain West
115Colgate103.5Patriot League
116George Mason103.5Atlantic 10
117Temple103.3American Athletic
118UC Irvine103.3Big West
119Louisville103.2Atlantic Coast
120Stephen F. Austin103.2Western Athletic
121Wofford103.2Southern
122Butler103.0Big East
123N.C. State102.9Atlantic Coast
124Rhode Island102.8Atlantic 10
125Utah Valley102.8Western Athletic
126Liberty102.7Atlantic Sun
127Hofstra102.7Colonial Athletic
128Morehead St.102.7Ohio Valley
129Nebraska102.6Big Ten
130Southern Illinois102.5Missouri Valley
131Wagner102.5Northeast
132Florida Atlantic102.5Conference USA
133UC Santa Barbara102.5Big West
134California102.4Pac-12
135Kent St.102.3Mid-American
136Saint Peter’s102.0Metro Atlantic
137Seattle102.0Western Athletic
138Abilene Christian102.0Western Athletic
139Georgia Tech101.8Atlantic Coast
140Oral Roberts101.8Summit
141South Alabama101.8Sun Belt
142Boston College101.7Atlantic Coast
143Jacksonville St.101.6Atlantic Sun
144Akron101.6Mid-American
145Missouri101.6Southeastern
146Yale101.5Ivy League
147Texas St.101.5Sun Belt
148Montana St.101.3Big Sky
149Longwood101.2Big South
150Georgia St.101.2Sun Belt
151Charleston101.1Colonial Athletic
152Southern Utah101.0Big Sky
153Tulsa100.9American Athletic
154Appalachian St.100.8Sun Belt
155Coastal Carolina100.8Sun Belt
156Drexel100.8Colonial Athletic
157Delaware100.7Colonial Athletic
158Monmouth100.7Metro Atlantic
159North Dakota St.100.6Summit
160Hawaii100.5Big West
161Sam Houston St.100.5Western Athletic
162Saint Joseph’s100.4Atlantic 10
163Weber St.100.4Big Sky
164Georgetown100.3Big East
165Winthrop100.1Big South
166New Mexico100.1Mountain West
167UC Riverside100.0Big West
168VMI99.9Southern
169UTEP99.9Conference USA
170Oakland99.9Horizon
171Old Dominion99.9Conference USA
172Jacksonville99.8Atlantic Sun
173Navy99.8Patriot League
174Long Beach St.99.8Big West
175Wright St.99.8Horizon
176Cleveland St.99.7Horizon
177Pittsburgh99.7Atlantic Coast
178Cal St. Fullerton99.6Big West
179UNC Greensboro99.6Southern
180Norfolk St.99.5Mideastern Athletic
181East Carolina99.5American Athletic
182Louisiana99.5Sun Belt
183Portland99.3West Coast
184Charlotte99.2Conference USA
185Gardner Webb99.2Big South
186UNC Wilmington99.1Colonial Athletic
187East Tennessee St.99.1Southern
188Massachusetts99.1Atlantic 10
189Loyola Marymount99.0West Coast
190Arkansas St.98.9Sun Belt
191South Dakota98.9Summit
192Fordham98.9Atlantic 10
193Illinois St.98.8Missouri Valley
194Troy98.7Sun Belt
195Northern Kentucky98.7Horizon
196Bryant98.6Northeast
197Valparaiso98.6Missouri Valley
198Bellarmine98.5Atlantic Sun
199Georgia98.5Southeastern
200Mercer98.5Southern
201Niagara98.5Metro Atlantic
202Cornell98.5Ivy League
203Florida Gulf Coast98.4Atlantic Sun
204Marist98.3Metro Atlantic
205Northern Colorado98.3Big Sky
206Boston University98.3Patriot League
207Nicholls St.98.2Southland
208Samford98.2Southern
209UMKC98.1Summit
210Cal Baptist98.1Western Athletic
211Texas Southern98.0Southwestern Athletic
212Oregon St.98.0Pac-12
213Dartmouth97.9Ivy League
214Penn97.9Ivy League
215Brown97.8Ivy League
216Eastern Washington97.7Big Sky
217San Diego97.7West Coast
218Purdue Fort Wayne97.5Horizon
219UC Davis97.5Big West
220Rice97.5Conference USA
221James Madison97.4Colonial Athletic
222Campbell97.3Big South
223Fairfield97.3Metro Atlantic
224Tarleton St.97.3Western Athletic
225UT Arlington97.2Sun Belt
226Detroit Mercy97.2Horizon
227Southern97.2Southwestern Athletic
228Montana97.1Big Sky
229UNC Asheville97.1Big South
230Harvard96.9Ivy League
231Kennesaw St.96.9Atlantic Sun
232Indiana St.96.8Missouri Valley
233George Washington96.8Atlantic 10
234La Salle96.7Atlantic 10
235Marshall96.4Conference USA
236New Hampshire96.4America East
237UMBC96.2America East
238LIU96.2Northeast
239UMass Lowell96.1America East
240Western Illinois96.0Summit
241Howard95.9Mideastern Athletic
242Mount St. Mary’s95.9Northeast
243Stony Brook95.9America East
244Miami OH95.9Mid-American
245South Florida95.7American Athletic
246Northeastern95.7Colonial Athletic
247Siena95.6Metro Atlantic
248Eastern Kentucky95.4Atlantic Sun
249Rider95.4Metro Atlantic
250The Citadel95.3Southern
251Georgia Southern95.3Sun Belt
252Youngstown St.95.1Horizon
253Portland St.95.0Big Sky
254High Point94.9Big South
255FIU94.9Conference USA
256Elon94.9Colonial Athletic
257Quinnipiac94.9Metro Atlantic
258Canisius94.8Metro Atlantic
259Ball St.94.8Mid-American
260Southeast Missouri St.94.8Ohio Valley
261Tennessee Tech94.7Ohio Valley
262Air Force94.5Mountain West
263Loyola MD94.4Patriot League
264North Florida94.4Atlantic Sun
265New Orleans94.4Southland
266Louisiana Monroe94.4Sun Belt
267Manhattan94.3Metro Atlantic
268UC San Diego94.3Big West
269Hartford94.3America East
270Cal St. Bakersfield94.2Big West
271Texas A&M Corpus Chris94.2Southland
272Bowling Green94.2Mid-American
273Lipscomb94.0Atlantic Sun
274Tennessee St.94.0Ohio Valley
275Alcorn St.93.9Southwestern Athletic
276Presbyterian93.8Big South
277Illinois Chicago93.8Horizon
278Duquesne93.8Atlantic 10
279Pepperdine93.7West Coast
280Binghamton93.4America East
281Pacific93.4West Coast
282Albany93.4America East
283Jackson St.93.3Southwestern Athletic
284Merrimack93.2Northeast
285Radford93.1Big South
286Dixie St.92.9Western Athletic
287Southeastern Louisiana92.8Southland
288Army92.8Patriot League
289Prairie View A&M92.7Southwestern Athletic
290USC Upstate92.7Big South
291Austin Peay92.5Ohio Valley
292North Carolina Central92.5Mideastern Athletic
293North Carolina A&T92.3Big South
294Northern Illinois92.2Mid-American
295Stetson92.1Atlantic Sun
296Morgan St.92.1Mideastern Athletic
297San Jose St.92.1Mountain West
298Lehigh92.0Patriot League
299SIU Edwardsville91.9Ohio Valley
300Cal Poly91.8Big West
301Denver91.8Summit
302Western Carolina91.7Southern
303Sacramento St.91.5Big Sky
304North Alabama91.4Atlantic Sun
305UTSA91.4Conference USA
306St. Thomas91.2Summit
307UT Rio Grande Valley91.1Western Athletic
308Florida A&M91.0Southwestern Athletic
309Sacred Heart90.9Northeast
310Eastern Michigan90.9Mid-American
311Grambling St.90.8Southwestern Athletic
312Evansville90.8Missouri Valley
313Robert Morris90.8Horizon
314Tennessee Martin90.7Ohio Valley
315Coppin St.90.7Mideastern Athletic
316Maryland Eastern Shore90.7Mideastern Athletic
317Lafayette90.6Patriot League
318St. Francis PA90.6Northeast
319St. Francis NY90.5Northeast
320McNeese St.90.5Southland
321Central Michigan90.5Mid-American
322Little Rock90.3Sun Belt
323Western Michigan89.9Mid-American
324Idaho89.7Big Sky
325Cal St. Northridge89.6Big West
326South Carolina St.89.6Mideastern Athletic
327Central Arkansas89.6Atlantic Sun
328Milwaukee89.5Horizon
329American89.5Patriot League
330Idaho St.89.4Big Sky
331Alabama St.89.3Southwestern Athletic
332Hampton89.2Big South
333Northern Arizona89.1Big Sky
334Alabama A&M89.1Southwestern Athletic
335Bucknell88.8Patriot League
336Southern Miss88.7Conference USA
337Northwestern St.88.7Southland
338NJIT88.6America East
339Green Bay88.6Horizon
340Bethune Cookman88.2Southwestern Athletic
341William & Mary88.0Colonial Athletic
342Houston Baptist87.5Southland
343Holy Cross87.1Patriot League
344Central Connecticut86.9Northeast
345Chicago St.86.8Western Athletic
346North Dakota86.7Summit
347Lamar86.7Western Athletic
348Fairleigh Dickinson86.5Northeast
349Nebraska Omaha86.4Summit
350Maine85.7America East
351Charleston Southern85.7Big South
352Columbia85.5Ivy League
353Incarnate Word85.3Southland
354Arkansas Pine Bluff84.0Southwestern Athletic
355Eastern Illinois82.7Ohio Valley
356Delaware St.81.6Mideastern Athletic
357Mississippi Valley St.81.2Southwestern Athletic
358IUPUI80.4Horizon

Alphabetical

#TeamPiRateConference
138Abilene Christian102.0Western Athletic
262Air Force94.5Mountain West
144Akron101.6Mid-American
20Alabama113.6Southeastern
334Alabama A&M89.1Southwestern Athletic
331Alabama St.89.3Southwestern Athletic
282Albany93.4America East
275Alcorn St.93.9Southwestern Athletic
329American89.5Patriot League
154Appalachian St.100.8Sun Belt
2Arizona120.8Pac-12
90Arizona St.106.5Pac-12
18Arkansas114.5Southeastern
354Arkansas Pine Bluff84.0Southwestern Athletic
190Arkansas St.98.9Sun Belt
288Army92.8Patriot League
5Auburn118.4Southeastern
291Austin Peay92.5Ohio Valley
259Ball St.94.8Mid-American
4Baylor119.2Big 12
198Bellarmine98.5Atlantic Sun
80Belmont107.4Ohio Valley
340Bethune Cookman88.2Southwestern Athletic
280Binghamton93.4America East
42Boise St.110.6Mountain West
142Boston College101.7Atlantic Coast
206Boston University98.3Patriot League
272Bowling Green94.2Mid-American
103Bradley105.2Missouri Valley
215Brown97.8Ivy League
196Bryant98.6Northeast
335Bucknell88.8Patriot League
109Buffalo104.0Mid-American
122Butler103.0Big East
53BYU109.3West Coast
210Cal Baptist98.1Western Athletic
300Cal Poly91.8Big West
270Cal St. Bakersfield94.2Big West
178Cal St. Fullerton99.6Big West
325Cal St. Northridge89.6Big West
134California102.4Pac-12
222Campbell97.3Big South
258Canisius94.8Metro Atlantic
327Central Arkansas89.6Atlantic Sun
344Central Connecticut86.9Northeast
321Central Michigan90.5Mid-American
151Charleston101.1Colonial Athletic
351Charleston Southern85.7Big South
184Charlotte99.2Conference USA
86Chattanooga107.0Southern
345Chicago St.86.8Western Athletic
98Cincinnati105.7American Athletic
75Clemson107.9Atlantic Coast
176Cleveland St.99.7Horizon
155Coastal Carolina100.8Sun Belt
115Colgate103.5Patriot League
71Colorado108.2Pac-12
44Colorado St.110.4Mountain West
352Columbia85.5Ivy League
19Connecticut114.1Big East
315Coppin St.90.7Mideastern Athletic
202Cornell98.5Ivy League
68Creighton108.3Big East
213Dartmouth97.9Ivy League
56Davidson109.2Atlantic 10
54Dayton109.2Atlantic 10
157Delaware100.7Colonial Athletic
356Delaware St.81.6Mideastern Athletic
301Denver91.8Summit
94DePaul106.1Big East
226Detroit Mercy97.2Horizon
286Dixie St.92.9Western Athletic
88Drake106.6Missouri Valley
156Drexel100.8Colonial Athletic
6Duke118.1Atlantic Coast
278Duquesne93.8Atlantic 10
181East Carolina99.5American Athletic
187East Tennessee St.99.1Southern
355Eastern Illinois82.7Ohio Valley
248Eastern Kentucky95.4Atlantic Sun
310Eastern Michigan90.9Mid-American
216Eastern Washington97.7Big Sky
256Elon94.9Colonial Athletic
312Evansville90.8Missouri Valley
223Fairfield97.3Metro Atlantic
348Fairleigh Dickinson86.5Northeast
255FIU94.9Conference USA
43Florida110.5Southeastern
308Florida A&M91.0Southwestern Athletic
132Florida Atlantic102.5Conference USA
203Florida Gulf Coast98.4Atlantic Sun
89Florida St.106.5Atlantic Coast
192Fordham98.9Atlantic 10
83Fresno St.107.3Mountain West
85Furman107.2Southern
185Gardner Webb99.2Big South
116George Mason103.5Atlantic 10
233George Washington96.8Atlantic 10
164Georgetown100.3Big East
199Georgia98.5Southeastern
251Georgia Southern95.3Sun Belt
150Georgia St.101.2Sun Belt
139Georgia Tech101.8Atlantic Coast
1Gonzaga124.6West Coast
311Grambling St.90.8Southwestern Athletic
102Grand Canyon105.3Western Athletic
339Green Bay88.6Horizon
332Hampton89.2Big South
269Hartford94.3America East
230Harvard96.9Ivy League
160Hawaii100.5Big West
254High Point94.9Big South
127Hofstra102.7Colonial Athletic
343Holy Cross87.1Patriot League
7Houston118.1American Athletic
342Houston Baptist87.5Southland
241Howard95.9Mideastern Athletic
324Idaho89.7Big Sky
330Idaho St.89.4Big Sky
15Illinois115.5Big Ten
277Illinois Chicago93.8Horizon
193Illinois St.98.8Missouri Valley
353Incarnate Word85.3Southland
35Indiana111.3Big Ten
232Indiana St.96.8Missouri Valley
95Iona106.0Metro Atlantic
14Iowa116.6Big Ten
50Iowa St.109.9Big 12
358IUPUI80.4Horizon
283Jackson St.93.3Southwestern Athletic
172Jacksonville99.8Atlantic Sun
143Jacksonville St.101.6Atlantic Sun
221James Madison97.4Colonial Athletic
8Kansas118.0Big 12
63Kansas St.108.7Big 12
231Kennesaw St.96.9Atlantic Sun
135Kent St.102.3Mid-American
3Kentucky119.4Southeastern
234La Salle96.7Atlantic 10
317Lafayette90.6Patriot League
347Lamar86.7Western Athletic
298Lehigh92.0Patriot League
126Liberty102.7Atlantic Sun
273Lipscomb94.0Atlantic Sun
322Little Rock90.3Sun Belt
238LIU96.2Northeast
174Long Beach St.99.8Big West
149Longwood101.2Big South
182Louisiana99.5Sun Belt
266Louisiana Monroe94.4Sun Belt
104Louisiana Tech105.1Conference USA
119Louisville103.2Atlantic Coast
28Loyola Chicago112.0Missouri Valley
189Loyola Marymount99.0West Coast
263Loyola MD94.4Patriot League
16LSU114.9Southeastern
350Maine85.7America East
267Manhattan94.3Metro Atlantic
204Marist98.3Metro Atlantic
40Marquette110.9Big East
235Marshall96.4Conference USA
67Maryland108.3Big Ten
316Maryland Eastern Shore90.7Mideastern Athletic
188Massachusetts99.1Atlantic 10
320McNeese St.90.5Southland
23Memphis112.7American Athletic
200Mercer98.5Southern
284Merrimack93.2Northeast
57Miami FL109.2Atlantic Coast
244Miami OH95.9Mid-American
25Michigan112.6Big Ten
33Michigan St.111.5Big Ten
111Middle Tennessee103.8Conference USA
328Milwaukee89.5Horizon
105Minnesota104.9Big Ten
100Mississippi105.6Southeastern
48Mississippi St.109.9Southeastern
357Mississippi Valley St.81.2Southwestern Athletic
145Missouri101.6Southeastern
69Missouri St.108.2Missouri Valley
158Monmouth100.7Metro Atlantic
228Montana97.1Big Sky
148Montana St.101.3Big Sky
128Morehead St.102.7Ohio Valley
296Morgan St.92.1Mideastern Athletic
242Mount St. Mary’s95.9Northeast
41Murray St.110.6Ohio Valley
123N.C. State102.9Atlantic Coast
173Navy99.8Patriot League
129Nebraska102.6Big Ten
349Nebraska Omaha86.4Summit
114Nevada103.6Mountain West
236New Hampshire96.4America East
166New Mexico100.1Mountain West
96New Mexico St.105.8Western Athletic
265New Orleans94.4Southland
201Niagara98.5Metro Atlantic
207Nicholls St.98.2Southland
338NJIT88.6America East
180Norfolk St.99.5Mideastern Athletic
304North Alabama91.4Atlantic Sun
27North Carolina112.2Atlantic Coast
293North Carolina A&T92.3Big South
292North Carolina Central92.5Mideastern Athletic
346North Dakota86.7Summit
159North Dakota St.100.6Summit
264North Florida94.4Atlantic Sun
70North Texas108.2Conference USA
246Northeastern95.7Colonial Athletic
333Northern Arizona89.1Big Sky
205Northern Colorado98.3Big Sky
294Northern Illinois92.2Mid-American
99Northern Iowa105.6Missouri Valley
195Northern Kentucky98.7Horizon
64Northwestern108.7Big Ten
337Northwestern St.88.7Southland
47Notre Dame110.1Atlantic Coast
170Oakland99.9Horizon
112Ohio103.8Mid-American
24Ohio St.112.7Big Ten
38Oklahoma111.0Big 12
36Oklahoma St.111.3Big 12
171Old Dominion99.9Conference USA
140Oral Roberts101.8Summit
61Oregon108.8Pac-12
212Oregon St.98.0Pac-12
281Pacific93.4West Coast
214Penn97.9Ivy League
79Penn St.107.4Big Ten
279Pepperdine93.7West Coast
177Pittsburgh99.7Atlantic Coast
183Portland99.3West Coast
253Portland St.95.0Big Sky
289Prairie View A&M92.7Southwestern Athletic
276Presbyterian93.8Big South
107Princeton104.3Ivy League
37Providence111.2Big East
10Purdue117.3Big Ten
218Purdue Fort Wayne97.5Horizon
257Quinnipiac94.9Metro Atlantic
285Radford93.1Big South
124Rhode Island102.8Atlantic 10
220Rice97.5Conference USA
91Richmond106.5Atlantic 10
249Rider95.4Metro Atlantic
313Robert Morris90.8Horizon
66Rutgers108.4Big Ten
303Sacramento St.91.5Big Sky
309Sacred Heart90.9Northeast
162Saint Joseph’s100.4Atlantic 10
60Saint Louis109.0Atlantic 10
21Saint Mary’s113.3West Coast
136Saint Peter’s102.0Metro Atlantic
161Sam Houston St.100.5Western Athletic
208Samford98.2Southern
217San Diego97.7West Coast
31San Diego St.111.7Mountain West
22San Francisco112.9West Coast
297San Jose St.92.1Mountain West
76Santa Clara107.9West Coast
137Seattle102.0Western Athletic
26Seton Hall112.2Big East
247Siena95.6Metro Atlantic
299SIU Edwardsville91.9Ohio Valley
51SMU109.6American Athletic
141South Alabama101.8Sun Belt
92South Carolina106.2Southeastern
326South Carolina St.89.6Mideastern Athletic
191South Dakota98.9Summit
77South Dakota St.107.8Summit
245South Florida95.7American Athletic
260Southeast Missouri St.94.8Ohio Valley
287Southeastern Louisiana92.8Southland
227Southern97.2Southwestern Athletic
130Southern Illinois102.5Missouri Valley
336Southern Miss88.7Conference USA
152Southern Utah101.0Big Sky
81St. Bonaventure107.3Atlantic 10
319St. Francis NY90.5Northeast
318St. Francis PA90.6Northeast
52St. John’s109.6Big East
306St. Thomas91.2Summit
106Stanford104.7Pac-12
120Stephen F. Austin103.2Western Athletic
295Stetson92.1Atlantic Sun
243Stony Brook95.9America East
82Syracuse107.3Atlantic Coast
224Tarleton St.97.3Western Athletic
45TCU110.2Big 12
117Temple103.3American Athletic
11Tennessee117.2Southeastern
314Tennessee Martin90.7Ohio Valley
274Tennessee St.94.0Ohio Valley
261Tennessee Tech94.7Ohio Valley
17Texas114.6Big 12
59Texas A&M109.1Southeastern
271Texas A&M Corpus Chris94.2Southland
211Texas Southern98.0Southwestern Athletic
147Texas St.101.5Sun Belt
13Texas Tech116.9Big 12
250The Citadel95.3Southern
65Toledo108.5Mid-American
84Towson107.2Colonial Athletic
194Troy98.7Sun Belt
101Tulane105.3American Athletic
153Tulsa100.9American Athletic
46UAB110.1Conference USA
219UC Davis97.5Big West
118UC Irvine103.3Big West
167UC Riverside100.0Big West
268UC San Diego94.3Big West
133UC Santa Barbara102.5Big West
97UCF105.8American Athletic
9UCLA117.7Pac-12
239UMass Lowell96.1America East
237UMBC96.2America East
209UMKC98.1Summit
229UNC Asheville97.1Big South
179UNC Greensboro99.6Southern
186UNC Wilmington99.1Colonial Athletic
93UNLV106.1Mountain West
34USC111.4Pac-12
290USC Upstate92.7Big South
225UT Arlington97.2Sun Belt
307UT Rio Grande Valley91.1Western Athletic
108Utah104.1Pac-12
58Utah St.109.2Mountain West
125Utah Valley102.8Western Athletic
169UTEP99.9Conference USA
305UTSA91.4Conference USA
197Valparaiso98.6Missouri Valley
78Vanderbilt107.6Southeastern
55VCU109.2Atlantic 10
73Vermont108.1America East
12Villanova117.1Big East
72Virginia108.1Atlantic Coast
29Virginia Tech111.8Atlantic Coast
168VMI99.9Southern
131Wagner102.5Northeast
32Wake Forest111.7Atlantic Coast
113Washington103.6Pac-12
49Washington St.109.9Pac-12
163Weber St.100.4Big Sky
62West Virginia108.7Big 12
302Western Carolina91.7Southern
240Western Illinois96.0Summit
110Western Kentucky103.9Conference USA
323Western Michigan89.9Mid-American
87Wichita St.106.8American Athletic
341William & Mary88.0Colonial Athletic
165Winthrop100.1Big South
30Wisconsin111.8Big Ten
121Wofford103.2Southern
175Wright St.99.8Horizon
74Wyoming108.1Mountain West
39Xavier110.9Big East
146Yale101.5Ivy League
252Youngstown St.95.1Horizon

PiRate Ratings By Conference

America East
TeamRating
Vermont108.1
New Hampshire96.4
UMBC96.2
UMass Lowell96.1
Stony Brook95.9
Hartford94.3
Binghamton93.4
Albany93.4
NJIT88.6
Maine85.7
American Athletic
TeamRating
Houston118.1
Memphis112.7
SMU109.6
Wichita St.106.8
UCF105.8
Cincinnati105.7
Tulane105.3
Temple103.3
Tulsa100.9
East Carolina99.5
South Florida95.7
Atlantic 10
TeamRating
Dayton109.2
VCU109.2
Davidson109.2
Saint Louis109.0
St. Bonaventure107.3
Richmond106.5
George Mason103.5
Rhode Island102.8
Saint Joseph’s100.4
Massachusetts99.1
Fordham98.9
George Washington96.8
La Salle96.7
Duquesne93.8
Atlantic Coast
TeamRating
Duke118.1
North Carolina112.2
Virginia Tech111.8
Wake Forest111.7
Notre Dame110.1
Miami FL109.2
Virginia108.1
Clemson107.9
Syracuse107.3
Florida St.106.5
Louisville103.2
N.C. State102.9
Georgia Tech101.8
Boston College101.7
Pittsburgh99.7
Atlantic Sun
TeamRating
Liberty102.7
Jacksonville St.101.6
Jacksonville99.8
Bellarmine98.5
Florida Gulf Coast98.4
Kennesaw St.96.9
Eastern Kentucky95.4
North Florida94.4
Lipscomb94.0
Stetson92.1
North Alabama91.4
Central Arkansas89.6
Big 12
TeamRating
Baylor119.2
Kansas118.0
Texas Tech116.9
Texas114.6
Oklahoma St.111.3
Oklahoma111.0
TCU110.2
Iowa St.109.9
West Virginia108.7
Kansas St.108.7
Big East
TeamRating
Villanova117.1
Connecticut114.1
Seton Hall112.2
Providence111.2
Xavier110.9
Marquette110.9
St. John’s109.6
Creighton108.3
DePaul106.1
Butler103.0
Georgetown100.3
Big Sky
TeamRating
Montana St.101.3
Southern Utah101.0
Weber St.100.4
Northern Colorado98.3
Eastern Washington97.7
Montana97.1
Portland St.95.0
Sacramento St.91.5
Idaho89.7
Idaho St.89.4
Northern Arizona89.1
Big South
TeamRating
Longwood101.2
Winthrop100.1
Gardner Webb99.2
Campbell97.3
UNC Asheville97.1
High Point94.9
Presbyterian93.8
Radford93.1
USC Upstate92.7
North Carolina A&T92.3
Hampton89.2
Charleston Southern85.7
Big Ten
TeamRating
Purdue117.3
Iowa116.6
Illinois115.5
Ohio St.112.7
Michigan112.6
Wisconsin111.8
Michigan St.111.5
Indiana111.3
Northwestern108.7
Rutgers108.4
Maryland108.3
Penn St.107.4
Minnesota104.9
Nebraska102.6
Big West
TeamRating
UC Irvine103.3
UC Santa Barbara102.5
Hawaii100.5
UC Riverside100.0
Long Beach St.99.8
Cal St. Fullerton99.6
UC Davis97.5
UC San Diego94.3
Cal St. Bakersfield94.2
Cal Poly91.8
Cal St. Northridge89.6
Colonial Athletic
TeamRating
Towson107.2
Hofstra102.7
Charleston101.1
Drexel100.8
Delaware100.7
UNC Wilmington99.1
James Madison97.4
Northeastern95.7
Elon94.9
William & Mary88.0
Conference USA
TeamRating
UAB110.1
North Texas108.2
Louisiana Tech105.1
Western Kentucky103.9
Middle Tennessee103.8
Florida Atlantic102.5
UTEP99.9
Old Dominion99.9
Charlotte99.2
Rice97.5
Marshall96.4
FIU94.9
UTSA91.4
Southern Miss88.7
Horizon
TeamRating
Oakland99.9
Wright St.99.8
Cleveland St.99.7
Northern Kentucky98.7
Purdue Fort Wayne97.5
Detroit Mercy97.2
Youngstown St.95.1
Illinois Chicago93.8
Robert Morris90.8
Milwaukee89.5
Green Bay88.6
IUPUI80.4
Ivy League
TeamRating
Princeton104.3
Yale101.5
Cornell98.5
Dartmouth97.9
Penn97.9
Brown97.8
Harvard96.9
Columbia85.5
Metro Atlantic
TeamRating
Iona106.0
Saint Peter’s102.0
Monmouth100.7
Niagara98.5
Marist98.3
Fairfield97.3
Siena95.6
Rider95.4
Quinnipiac94.9
Canisius94.8
Manhattan94.3
Mid-American
TeamRating
Toledo108.5
Buffalo104.0
Ohio103.8
Kent St.102.3
Akron101.6
Miami OH95.9
Ball St.94.8
Bowling Green94.2
Northern Illinois92.2
Eastern Michigan90.9
Central Michigan90.5
Western Michigan89.9
Mideastern Athletic
TeamRating
Norfolk St.99.5
Howard95.9
North Carolina Central92.5
Morgan St.92.1
Coppin St.90.7
Maryland Eastern Shore90.7
South Carolina St.89.6
Delaware St.81.6
Missouri Valley
TeamRating
Loyola Chicago112.0
Missouri St.108.2
Drake106.6
Northern Iowa105.6
Bradley105.2
Southern Illinois102.5
Illinois St.98.8
Valparaiso98.6
Indiana St.96.8
Evansville90.8
Mountain West
TeamRating
San Diego St.111.7
Boise St.110.6
Colorado St.110.4
Utah St.109.2
Wyoming108.1
Fresno St.107.3
UNLV106.1
Nevada103.6
New Mexico100.1
Air Force94.5
San Jose St.92.1
Northeast
TeamRating
Wagner102.5
Bryant98.6
LIU96.2
Mount St. Mary’s95.9
Merrimack93.2
Sacred Heart90.9
St. Francis PA90.6
St. Francis NY90.5
Central Connecticut86.9
Fairleigh Dickinson86.5
Ohio Valley
TeamRating
Murray St.110.6
Belmont107.4
Morehead St.102.7
Southeast Missouri St.94.8
Tennessee Tech94.7
Tennessee St.94.0
Austin Peay92.5
SIU Edwardsville91.9
Tennessee Martin90.7
Eastern Illinois82.7
Pac-12
TeamRating
Arizona120.8
UCLA117.7
USC111.4
Washington St.109.9
Oregon108.8
Colorado108.2
Arizona St.106.5
Stanford104.7
Utah104.1
Washington103.6
California102.4
Oregon St.98.0
Patriot League
TeamRating
Colgate103.5
Navy99.8
Boston University98.3
Loyola MD94.4
Army92.8
Lehigh92.0
Lafayette90.6
American89.5
Bucknell88.8
Holy Cross87.1
Southeastern
TeamRating
Kentucky119.4
Auburn118.4
Tennessee117.2
LSU114.9
Arkansas114.5
Alabama113.6
Florida110.5
Mississippi St.109.9
Texas A&M109.1
Vanderbilt107.6
South Carolina106.2
Mississippi105.6
Missouri101.6
Georgia98.5
Southern
TeamRating
Furman107.2
Chattanooga107.0
Wofford103.2
VMI99.9
UNC Greensboro99.6
East Tennessee St.99.1
Mercer98.5
Samford98.2
The Citadel95.3
Western Carolina91.7
Southland
TeamRating
Nicholls St.98.2
New Orleans94.4
Texas A&M Corpus Chris94.2
Southeastern Louisiana92.8
McNeese St.90.5
Northwestern St.88.7
Houston Baptist87.5
Incarnate Word85.3
Southwestern Athletic
TeamRating
Texas Southern98.0
Southern97.2
Alcorn St.93.9
Jackson St.93.3
Prairie View A&M92.7
Florida A&M91.0
Grambling St.90.8
Alabama St.89.3
Alabama A&M89.1
Bethune Cookman88.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff84.0
Mississippi Valley St.81.2
Summit
TeamRating
South Dakota St.107.8
Oral Roberts101.8
North Dakota St.100.6
South Dakota98.9
UMKC98.1
Western Illinois96.0
Denver91.8
St. Thomas91.2
North Dakota86.7
Nebraska Omaha86.4
Sun Belt
TeamRating
South Alabama101.8
Texas St.101.5
Georgia St.101.2
Appalachian St.100.8
Coastal Carolina100.8
Louisiana99.5
Arkansas St.98.9
Troy98.7
UT Arlington97.2
Georgia Southern95.3
Louisiana Monroe94.4
Little Rock90.3
West Coast
TeamRating
Gonzaga124.6
Saint Mary’s113.3
San Francisco112.9
BYU109.3
Santa Clara107.9
Portland99.3
Loyola Marymount99.0
San Diego97.7
Pepperdine93.7
Pacific93.4
Western Athletic
TeamRating
New Mexico St.105.8
Grand Canyon105.3
Stephen F. Austin103.2
Utah Valley102.8
Seattle102.0
Abilene Christian102.0
Sam Houston St.100.5
Cal Baptist98.1
Tarleton St.97.3
Dixie St.92.9
UT Rio Grande Valley91.1
Chicago St.86.8
Lamar86.7

Coming Later Today–Updated Bracketology

Older Posts »

Blog at WordPress.com.