The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 7, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 8, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:40 pm

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl & Playoff Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Marshall]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Central Florida

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Wyoming

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Navy

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Arizona St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Tulane

Southern Miss.

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Boston College

[Eastern Michigan]

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma St.

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

[Air Force]

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Texas

Cotton

At-large

At-large

[Penn St.]

Memphis

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Florida Atlantic

[Liberty]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

California

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

Tennessee

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Texas A&M

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

Washington

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Florida Int’l.]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Alabama

Michigan

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Florida St.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Miami (O)

Nevada

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Kent St.]

Utah St.

Lending Tree

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Louisiana

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

LSU

Oklahoma

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Clemson

LSU

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Spread

Saturday

December 14

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Navy

Army

6.2

8.3

8.2

Game played in Philadelphia

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

141.7

140.8

142.5

141.7

2

Clemson

140.1

138.5

141.5

140.0

3

L S U

137.6

135.7

138.0

137.1

4

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

5

Georgia

126.3

124.5

126.4

125.7

6

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

7

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

8

Utah

124.3

123.4

124.9

124.2

9

Oklahoma

123.1

122.7

122.9

122.9

10

Wisconsin

122.7

122.6

123.1

122.8

11

Oregon

122.0

121.9

122.8

122.2

12

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

13

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

14

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

15

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

16

Baylor

117.5

117.5

116.7

117.2

17

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

18

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

19

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

20

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

21

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

22

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

23

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

24

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

25

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

26

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

27

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.1

110.5

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

30

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

31

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

32

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

33

Appalachian St.

109.4

108.9

108.6

109.0

34

Virginia

107.3

107.2

107.6

107.4

35

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

36

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

37

Boise St.

108.1

108.5

108.4

108.3

38

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

39

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

40

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

41

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

42

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

43

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

44

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.1

105.8

45

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

46

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

47

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

49

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

50

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

51

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

52

Louisiana

103.1

103.4

102.8

103.1

53

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

54

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

55

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

56

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

57

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

58

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

59

Florida Atlantic

101.3

101.5

102.6

101.8

60

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

61

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

62

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

63

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

64

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

65

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

66

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

67

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

68

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

69

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

70

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

71

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

72

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

73

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

74

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

75

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

76

Hawaii

96.8

98.1

96.0

97.0

77

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

78

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

79

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

80

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

81

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

82

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

83

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

84

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

85

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

86

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

87

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

88

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

89

Central Michigan

92.1

92.7

93.1

92.6

90

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

91

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

93

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

94

Miami (Ohio)

90.5

89.6

90.8

90.3

95

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

96

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

97

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

98

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

99

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

100

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

101

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

102

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

103

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

104

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

105

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

106

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

107

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

108

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

109

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

110

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

111

U A B

86.3

88.0

86.9

87.1

112

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

114

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

115

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

116

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

117

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

118

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

119

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

120

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

121

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

122

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

123

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

124

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

125

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

126

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

127

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

128

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

129

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.1

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.5

4

Pac-12

107.5

5

Atlantic Coast

104.7

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conf. USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.1

PiRate Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Oklahoma

5

Georgia

6

Utah

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Boise St.

3

Appalachian St.

4

Florida Atlantic

5

Miami (O)

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

6-2

9-3

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.1

105.8

7-1

10-3

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

5-3

8-4

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

2-6

4-8

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

1-7

4-8

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.1

110.5

7-1

12-1

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

6-2

10-2

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

7-1

9-2

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

3-5

6-6

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

2-6

4-8

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

2-6

4-8

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

140.1

138.5

141.5

140.0

8-0

13-0

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

4-4

6-6

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

4-4

8-4

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

4-4

6-6

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

5-3

7-5

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

2-6

5-7

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

1-7

4-8

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

5-3

8-4

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

4-4

6-6

Virginia

107.3

107.2

107.6

107.4

6-2

9-4

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

4-4

6-6

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

4-4

7-5

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

3-5

5-7

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

2-6

3-9

ACC Averages

104.6

104.0

104.7

104.4

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.1

122.7

122.9

122.9

8-1

12-1

Baylor

117.5

117.5

116.7

117.2

8-1

11-2

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

5-4

7-5

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

5-4

8-4

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

5-4

7-5

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

5-4

8-4

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

3-6

5-7

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

2-7

4-8

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

3-6

5-7

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

1-8

3-9

Big 12 Averages

109.6

110.0

109.3

109.6

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

141.7

140.8

142.5

141.7

9-0

13-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

6-3

9-3

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

7-2

10-2

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

5-4

8-4

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

4-5

6-6

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

1-8

3-9

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

0-9

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

122.7

122.6

123.1

122.8

7-2

10-3

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

6-3

9-3

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

7-2

10-2

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

3-6

5-7

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

3-6

4-8

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

1-8

3-9

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

4-5

6-6

Big Ten Averages

111.4

110.8

110.9

111.0

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

101.3

101.5

102.6

101.8

7-1

10-3

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

6-2

8-4

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

6-2

8-4

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

4-4

6-6

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

3-5

4-8

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

5-3

7-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

0-8

1-11

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

6-2

9-3

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

5-3

7-5

U A B

86.3

88.0

86.9

87.1

6-2

9-4

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

3-5

4-8

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

3-5

3-9

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

3-5

4-8

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

0-8

1-11

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

x

10-2

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

x

7-5

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

x

5-7

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

x

7-5

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

x

2-10

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

x

1-11

Indep. Averages

89.8

90.5

89.4

89.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

5-3

6-6

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

5-3

7-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.5

89.6

90.8

90.3

6-2

8-5

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

5-3

6-6

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

2-6

3-9

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

0-8

0-12

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

5-3

7-5

Central Michigan

92.3

93.1

93.5

92.9

6-2

8-5

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

4-4

5-7

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

3-5

6-6

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

4-4

5-7

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

3-5

6-6

MAC Averages

87.0

86.7

87.2

87.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

108.1

108.5

108.4

108.3

8-0

12-1

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

7-1

10-2

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

4-4

7-5

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

6-2

7-5

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

3-5

4-8

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

5-3

9-3

Hawaii

96.8

98.1

96.0

97.0

5-3

9-5

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

2-6

4-8

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

4-4

7-5

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

2-6

5-7

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

2-6

4-8

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.6

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

122.0

121.9

122.8

122.2

8-1

11-2

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

4-5

7-5

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

3-6

6-6

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

4-5

7-5

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

4-5

5-7

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

3-6

4-8

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

124.3

123.4

124.9

124.2

8-1

11-2

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

7-2

8-4

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

4-5

7-5

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

3-6

5-7

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

4-5

4-8

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

2-7

4-8

Pac-12 Averages

107.4

107.2

107.7

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.3

124.5

126.4

125.7

7-1

11-2

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

6-2

10-2

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

3-5

7-5

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

5-3

7-5

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

3-5

6-6

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

3-5

4-8

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-7

3-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

137.6

135.7

138.0

137.1

8-0

13-0

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

6-2

10-2

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

5-3

9-3

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

4-4

7-5

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

3-5

6-6

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

2-6

4-8

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

0-8

2-10

SEC Averages

114.1

112.2

113.8

113.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

109.4

108.9

108.6

109.0

7-1

12-1

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

5-3

7-5

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

4-4

7-5

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

3-5

5-7

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

2-6

5-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

103.1

103.4

102.8

103.1

7-1

10-3

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

5-3

7-5

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

4-4

5-7

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

2-6

3-9

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

1-7

2-10

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 1, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 1, 2019

This Week’s Conference Championships Spreads

All times given are Eastern Standard

Friday, December 6

Conference

Pac-12

North Division

Oregon 10-2

South Division

Utah 11-1

Site:

Santa Clara

Time:

8:00 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Utah by 7.1

Mean:

Utah by 6.3

Bias:

Utah by 6.8

 

 

Predicted Score:

Utah 27

Oregon 20

 

 

Saturday, December 7

 

Conference

Sun Belt

East Division

Appalachian St. 11-1

West Division

Louisiana 10-2

Site:

Boone, NC (Appy St.)

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ESPN

PiRate:

Appy St. by 9.2

Mean:

Appy St. by 8.4

Bias:

Appy St. by 9.1

Predicted Score:

Appalachian St. 35

Louisiana 26

 

 

Conference

Mid-American

East Division

Miami (O) 7-5

West Division

Central Michigan 8-4

Site:

Detroit

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ESPN 2

PiRate:

CMU by 2.0

Mean:

CMU by 3.9

Bias:

CMU by 3.1

 

 

Predicted Score:

Central Mich. 31

Miami (O) 28

 

 

Conference

Big 12

1st Place

Oklahoma 11-1

2nd Place

Baylor 11-1

Site:

Arlington, TX

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Oklahoma by 5.2

Mean:

Oklahoma by 4.6

Bias:

Oklahoma by 5.4

 

 

Predicted Score:

Oklahoma 38

Baylor 33

 

 

Conference

Conference USA

East Division

Florida Atlantic 9-3

West Division

UAB 9-3

Site:

Boca Raton, FL (FAU)

Time:

1:30 PM

TV:

CBSSN

PiRate:

FAU by 11.9

Mean:

FAU by 10.0

Bias:

FAU by 12.2

 

 

Predicted Score:

Florida Atlantic 28

UAB 17

 

 

Conference

American Athletic

East Division

Cincinnati 10-2

West Division

Memphis 11-1

Site:

Memphis

Time:

3:30 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Memphis by 6.9

Mean:

Memphis by 7.8

Bias:

Memphis by 8.1

 

 

Predicted Score:

Memphis 35

Cincinnati 27

 

 

Conference

Mountain West

Mountain Division

Boise St. 11-1

West Division

Hawaii 9-4

Site:

Boise, ID

Time:

4:00 PM

TV:

ESPN

PiRate:

Boise St. by 16.9

Mean:

Boise St. by 15.7

Bias:

Boise St. by 18.0

 

 

Predicted Score:

Boise St. 48

Hawaii 31

 

 

Conference

Southeastern

East Division

Georgia 11-1

West Division

LSU 12-0

Site:

Atlanta

Time:

4:00 PM

TV:

CBS

PiRate:

LSU by 5.6

Mean:

LSU by 5.3

Bias:

LSU by 5.5

Predicted Score:

LSU 35

Georgia 30

 

 

Conference

Atlantic Coast

Atlantic Division

Clemson 12-0

Coastal Division

Virginia 9-3

Site:

Charlotte

Time:

7:30 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Clemson by 30.2

Mean:

Clemson by 28.3

Bias:

Clemson by 30.9

 

 

Predicted Score:

Clemson 40

Virginia 10

 

 

Conference

Big Ten

East Division

Ohio St. 12-0

West Division

Wisconsin 10-2

Site:

Indianapolis

Time:

8:00 PM

TV:

Fox

PiRate:

Ohio St. by 19.4

Mean:

Ohio St. by 18.8

Bias:

Ohio St. by 20.5

 

 

Predicted Score:

Ohio St. 44

Wisconsin 24

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

141.9

141.1

143.0

142.0

2

Clemson

138.8

137.0

140.0

138.6

3

L S U

135.5

133.5

135.7

134.9

4

Georgia

128.4

126.7

128.7

127.9

5

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

6

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

8

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

9

Oklahoma

122.9

122.4

122.5

122.6

10

Wisconsin

122.5

122.3

122.6

122.5

11

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

12

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

13

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

14

Oregon

119.5

119.4

120.2

119.7

15

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

16

Baylor

117.7

117.8

117.1

117.5

17

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

18

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

19

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

20

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

21

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

22

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

23

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

24

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

25

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

26

Memphis

110.2

110.6

111.4

110.7

27

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

30

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

31

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

32

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

33

Appalachian St.

109.6

109.1

109.0

109.2

34

Virginia

108.6

108.7

109.1

108.8

35

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

36

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

37

Boise St.

107.9

108.2

108.0

108.0

38

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

39

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

40

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

41

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

42

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

43

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

44

Cincinnati

105.8

105.3

105.8

105.6

45

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

46

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

47

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

49

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

50

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

51

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

52

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

53

Louisiana

102.9

103.2

102.4

102.8

54

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

55

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

56

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

57

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

58

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

59

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

60

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

61

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

62

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

63

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

64

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

65

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

67

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

68

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

69

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

70

Florida Atlantic

98.5

98.5

99.6

98.9

71

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

72

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

73

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

74

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

75

Hawaii

97.0

98.4

96.4

97.3

76

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

77

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

78

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

79

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

80

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

81

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

82

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

83

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

84

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

85

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

86

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

87

Central Michigan

92.3

93.1

93.5

92.9

88

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

89

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

90

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

91

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

93

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

94

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

95

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

96

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

97

U A B

89.1

91.0

89.9

90.0

98

Miami (Ohio)

90.3

89.2

90.4

90.0

99

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

100

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

101

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

102

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

103

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

104

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

105

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

106

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

107

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

108

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

109

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

110

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

111

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

112

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

114

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

115

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

116

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

117

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

118

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

119

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

120

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

121

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

122

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

123

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

124

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

125

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

126

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

127

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

128

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

129

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

6-2

9-3

Cincinnati

105.8

105.3

105.8

105.6

7-1

10-2

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

5-3

8-4

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

2-6

4-8

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

1-7

4-8

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

110.2

110.6

111.4

110.7

7-1

11-1

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

6-2

10-2

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

7-1

9-2

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

3-5

6-6

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

2-6

4-8

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

2-6

4-8

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

138.8

137.0

140.0

138.6

8-0

12-0

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

4-4

6-6

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

4-4

8-4

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

4-4

6-6

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

5-3

7-5

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

2-6

5-7

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

1-7

4-8

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

5-3

8-4

Virginia

108.6

108.7

109.1

108.8

6-2

9-3

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

4-4

6-6

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

4-4

6-6

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

4-4

7-5

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

3-5

5-7

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

2-6

3-9

ACC Averages

104.6

104.0

104.7

104.4

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.9

122.4

122.5

122.6

8-1

11-1

Baylor

117.7

117.8

117.1

117.5

8-1

11-1

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

5-4

7-5

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

5-4

8-4

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

5-4

7-5

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

5-4

8-4

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

3-6

5-7

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

2-7

4-8

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

3-6

5-7

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

1-8

3-9

Big 12 Averages

109.6

110.0

109.3

109.6

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

141.9

141.1

143.0

142.0

9-0

12-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

6-3

9-3

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

7-2

10-2

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

5-4

8-4

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

4-5

6-6

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

1-8

3-9

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

0-9

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

122.5

122.3

122.6

122.5

7-2

10-2

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

6-3

9-3

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

7-2

10-2

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

3-6

5-7

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

3-6

4-8

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

1-8

3-9

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

4-5

6-6

Big Ten Averages

111.4

110.8

110.9

111.0

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.5

98.5

99.6

98.9

7-1

9-3

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

6-2

8-4

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

6-2

8-4

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

4-4

6-6

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

3-5

4-8

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

5-3

7-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

0-8

1-11

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

6-2

9-3

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

5-3

7-5

U A B

89.1

91.0

89.9

90.0

6-2

9-3

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

3-5

4-8

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

3-5

3-9

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

3-5

4-8

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

0-8

1-11

 

 

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

x

10-2

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

x

7-5

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

x

5-7

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

x

7-5

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

x

2-10

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

x

1-11

Indep. Averages

89.8

90.5

89.4

89.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

5-3

6-6

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

5-3

7-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.3

89.2

90.4

90.0

6-2

7-5

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

5-3

6-6

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

2-6

3-9

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

0-8

0-12

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

5-3

7-5

Central Michigan

92.3

93.1

93.5

92.9

6-2

8-4

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

4-4

5-7

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

3-5

6-6

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

4-4

5-7

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

3-5

6-6

MAC Averages

87.0

86.7

87.2

87.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

107.9

108.2

108.0

108.0

8-0

11-1

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

7-1

10-2

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

4-4

7-5

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

6-2

7-5

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

3-5

4-8

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

5-3

9-3

Hawaii

97.0

98.4

96.4

97.3

5-3

9-4

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

2-6

4-8

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

4-4

7-5

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

2-6

5-7

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

2-6

4-8

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.6

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

119.5

119.4

120.2

119.7

8-1

10-2

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

4-5

7-5

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

3-6

6-6

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

4-5

7-5

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

4-5

5-7

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

3-6

4-8

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

8-1

11-1

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

7-2

8-4

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

4-5

7-5

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

3-6

5-7

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

4-5

4-8

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

2-7

4-8

Pac-12 Averages

107.4

107.2

107.7

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

128.4

126.7

128.7

127.9

7-1

11-1

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

6-2

10-2

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

3-5

7-5

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

5-3

7-5

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

3-5

6-6

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

3-5

4-8

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-7

3-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

135.5

133.5

135.7

134.9

8-0

12-0

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

6-2

10-2

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

5-3

9-3

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

4-4

7-5

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

3-5

6-6

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

2-6

4-8

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

0-8

2-10

SEC Averages

114.1

112.2

113.8

113.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

109.6

109.1

109.0

109.2

7-1

11-1

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

5-3

7-5

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

4-4

7-5

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

3-5

5-7

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

2-6

5-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

102.9

103.2

102.4

102.8

7-1

10-2

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

5-3

7-5

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

4-4

5-7

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

2-6

3-9

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

1-7

2-10

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.1

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.4

2

Big Ten

111.0

3

Big 12

109.6

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.4

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.2

8

Sun Belt

91.1

9

Independents

89.9

10

Conference USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.0

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

Ohio St.

2

LSU

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Oklahoma

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Boise St.

3

Appalachian St.

4

Cincinnati

5

Louisiana

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

One is the loneliest team that you’ll ever know–79 Bowl Eligible Teams For 78 Spots

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Louisiana Tech]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Air Force

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Miami (O)

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Western Kentucky

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

[Florida Int’l.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Florida St.

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Boston College

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Michigan

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

[Liberty]

[Nevada]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Oklahoma

Memphis

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Southern Miss.

[Kent St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

Kentucky

Indiana

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia

Alabama

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Marshall]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

California

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

Mississippi St.

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Louisville

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Ohio]

Wyoming

Lending Tree

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

LSU

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Utah

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Clemson

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 26, 2019

BREAKING NEWS

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , — piratings @ 11:43 am

Dateline Columbia, MO–11/26/19 1:25 PM EST

The NCAA has denied Missouri’s appeal for infractions and upheld the Tigers’ Bowl Ban.

This means that the SEC is going to be 4 or 5 teams shy in their bowl contractual agreements.  This is bad news for the Belk, Liberty, Music City, and possibly Texas Bowls.

November 24, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:48 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Akron

Ohio

-27.7

-27.1

-29.3

Northern Illinois

Western Michigan

-9.4

-9.2

-9.0

 

 

Thursday

November 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Mississippi St.

Ole Miss

3.7

1.2

7.5

 

 

Friday

November 29

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas

Missouri

-20.0

-17.5

-19.7

Ball St.

Miami (O)

1.4

2.0

1.1

Buffalo

Bowling Green

27.4

28.6

29.1

Central Florida

South Florida

24.1

22.7

24.1

Central Michigan

Toledo

5.0

5.7

5.7

Colorado St.

Boise St.

-18.1

-15.0

-18.0

Eastern Michigan

Kent St.

3.3

3.6

3.3

Memphis

Cincinnati

7.2

7.9

8.2

Nebraska

Iowa

-9.5

-7.8

-10.2

South Alabama

Arkansas St.

-13.9

-11.7

-14.0

TCU

West Virginia

10.3

12.6

11.2

Texas

Texas Tech

6.6

6.5

7.0

Troy

Appalachian St.

-13.8

-12.7

-14.5

Virginia

Virginia Tech

-1.7

-1.8

-2.5

Washington

Washington St.

2.2

2.4

2.6

 

 

Saturday

November 30

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Air Force

Wyoming

7.8

7.7

8.3

Arizona St.

Arizona

12.6

12.5

13.6

Auburn

Alabama

-5.0

-3.7

-5.9

Coastal Carolina

Texas St.

10.9

11.6

11.3

Duke

Miami (Fla.)

-4.6

-5.0

-6.1

East Carolina

Tulsa

-6.6

-5.9

-7.9

Florida

Florida St.

22.5

20.0

22.1

Florida Atlantic

Southern Miss.

6.6

7.7

7.3

Georgia Southern

Georgia St.

7.3

6.2

7.5

Georgia Tech

Georgia

-34.6

-34.0

-34.5

Hawaii

Army

4.6

5.7

4.3

Houston

Navy

0.9

-0.5

1.8

Illinois

Northwestern

4.6

6.4

6.1

Kansas

Baylor

-14.0

-13.1

-13.3

Kansas St.

Iowa St.

-0.4

-1.2

-0.7

Kentucky

Louisville

9.2

8.1

8.1

Liberty

New Mexico St.

16.5

15.7

16.8

Louisiana

UL-Monroe

19.5

19.3

19.7

Louisiana Tech

Texas-San Antonio

20.7

19.1

20.5

LSU

Texas A&M

16.0

15.2

16.6

Marshall

Florida Int’l.

6.3

6.3

7.2

Michigan

Ohio St.

-9.6

-9.9

-10.1

Michigan St.

Maryland

18.6

18.8

19.7

Minnesota

Wisconsin

1.3

1.3

0.9

Nevada

UNLV

8.8

8.8

8.7

New Mexico

Utah St.

-14.8

-12.0

-16.7

North Carolina St.

North Carolina

-10.4

-11.2

-11.6

North Texas

UAB

0.3

-2.1

-0.4

Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma

-10.2

-8.8

-10.0

Old Dominion

Charlotte

-12.0

-12.2

-12.6

Oregon

Oregon St.

20.2

19.2

21.2

Penn St.

Rutgers

42.0

41.6

43.5

Pittsburgh

Boston College

5.9

6.0

6.1

Purdue

Indiana

-4.7

-3.9

-5.1

San Diego St.

BYU

-2.5

-1.0

-2.4

San Jose St.

Fresno St.

-3.4

-2.6

-3.4

SMU

Tulane

6.7

5.9

6.5

South Carolina

Clemson

-27.0

-26.9

-29.2

Stanford

Notre Dame

-15.5

-15.4

-16.3

Syracuse

Wake Forest

-0.6

-0.7

-1.8

Temple

Connecticut

30.4

27.2

32.2

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

19.4

20.7

20.4

UCLA

California

-1.9

-1.9

-2.7

Utah

Colorado

31.2

30.4

31.8

UTEP

Rice

-12.2

-9.6

-11.5

Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee

8.1

9.5

9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

2

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

3

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

4

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

5

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

6

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

7

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

8

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

9

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

10

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

11

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

12

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

13

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

14

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

15

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

16

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

17

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

18

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

19

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

20

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

21

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

22

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

23

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

24

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

25

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

26

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

27

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

31

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

32

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

33

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

34

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

35

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

36

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

37

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

38

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

39

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

40

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

41

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

42

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

43

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

44

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

45

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

46

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

47

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

48

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

49

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

50

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

51

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

52

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

53

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

54

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

55

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

56

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

57

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

58

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

59

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

60

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

61

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

62

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

63

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

64

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

65

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

66

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

67

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

68

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

69

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

70

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

71

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

72

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

74

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

75

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

76

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

77

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

78

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

79

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

80

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

81

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

82

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

83

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

84

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

85

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

86

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

87

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

88

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

89

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

90

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

91

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

93

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

94

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

95

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

96

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

97

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

98

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

99

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

100

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

101

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

102

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

103

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

104

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

105

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

106

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

107

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

108

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

109

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

111

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

112

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

113

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

114

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

115

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

116

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

117

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

118

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

119

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

122

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

123

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

124

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

125

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

126

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

127

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

128

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

129

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

ACC Averages

104.8

104.2

105.0

104.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.5

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

Indep. Averages

90.0

90.7

89.7

90.1

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.3

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.4

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

Pac-12 Averages

107.5

107.2

107.7

107.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

SEC Averages

113.8

112.0

113.5

113.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.1

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.5

4

Pac-12

107.5

5

Atlantic Coast

104.7

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conf. USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6

1

Ohio St.

2

LSU

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Appalachian St.

5

Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

————————————–

The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Miami (O)

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Marshall]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

[Nevada]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Utah

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Ky.

TCU

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Central Michigan]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

California

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Florida Int’l.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Utah St.

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Eastern Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 20, 2019

Special Editorial–Vanderbilt Football Conundrum

American University, Boston University, Long Beach State University, The University of Denver, the University of Detroit, George Washington University, Marquette University, New York University, St. John’s University, Saint Joseph’s University, The University of San Francisco, Santa Clara University, Seton Hall University, and Xavier University are smaller colleges that at one time fielded intercollegiate football programs and then saw Pro Football support chip away just enough of their fan base to make football too expensive to continue to finance at the major college level.

The University of Chicago was once a member of what is now called the Big Ten Conference, and their star back Jay Berwanger won the first Heisman Trophy.  The Maroons won the Big Ten Conference (then called The Western Conference) seven times under legendary coach Amos Alonzo Stagg.

The University of Dayton was a division 1 football program into the mid 1970’s, and as late as the 1960’s, the Flyers were beating Louisville and Cincinnati.  They played a lot of teams from the Mid-American Conference and won a good share of those contests.  Dayton is in the Cincinnati market for those not geographically interested.

The University of Denver won three championships in the Skyline Conference, which is the league that sowed the seeds for today’s Mountain West Conference.  As late as their final season in college football, 1960, the Pioneers were beating Washington State and Colorado State.  DU once dominated programs like Brigham Young, Utah, New Mexico, and San Jose St.  When the Broncos were born in 1960, the Pioneers football program ended.

The University of Detroit played Big Ten and SEC opponents into the early 1960’s, and the Titans beat teams like Boston College, Cincinnati, Tulsa, and Oklahoma State in the 1950’s.  Support for UD football waned as the Detroit Lions’ support increased.

Duquesne University played teams like Alabama, Florida, Clemson, North Carolina, and Mississippi State into the 1950s.  The Dukes finished in the top 10 in 1939, having beaten former number one Pittsburgh in a battle of the Steel City.

George Washington was a member of the Southern Conference when that league was still Division 1 and included teams like West Virginia.  The Colonials went to the Sun Bowl, beating home town favorite Texas Western (UTEP) 13-0.  GWU played SEC teams into the 1960s and competed in some of those games.

In the late 1950’s, Marquette’s schedule was more difficult then than most FBS teams today.  The Golden Eagles, then known as the Warriors, played teams like Oklahoma State, Michigan, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Boston College, TCU, Arizona State, and Penn State.  MU actually went to the Cotton Bowl in the mid 1930’s.

Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara, and San Francisco all played Division 1 football into the early 1950’s.  SMC was strong enough to play a bowl-bound Georgia team to a tie in 1950.  The Gaels also beat Oregon that year.  Santa Clara went to the Orange Bowl in 1950 and beat a Bear Bryant-coached Kentucky team that had the great Babe Parilli at quarterback.  They had recent wins over Oklahoma and Stanford prior to beating Kentucky.  San Francisco had one of the greatest players of all time in Ollie Matson, who enjoyed a lengthy pro career with four NFL teams.  USF was 9-0 in 1951, their final year playing football.

All of these programs were once major college teams.  Most of these schools are private and small.  Another thing all of these schools have in common is they are located in cities where pro football eventually became the dominant sport in town, and these small, private schools lost too much of their support to sustain their programs.  

The Washington Redskins were in Boston before moving to the nation’s capital.  After they arrived, American University  and George Washington University lost a lot of their support, as fans chose Sammy Baugh over the old college try.

The University of Chicago lost most of its support when the Chicago Bears became the Monsters of the Midway and began winning big in the NFL.

The University of Detroit stopped getting support when Bobby Layne made the Detroit Lions the hot ticket in the Motor City.  Duquesne stopped getting crowds when the Steelers took over the market, and even though the Steelers were not good until 1972, DU couldn’t compete with the much larger University of Pittsburgh in town.

Marquette lost too much support when Vince Lombardi became head coach of the Green Bay Packers.  Back then, Green Bay played half of their home games in Milwaukee’s County Stadium.

The San Francisco 49ers were part of the upstart All-American Football Conference.  When the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Colts, and 49ers merged into the NFL in 1950, it marked the death knell for the smaller private college football programs in the Bay Area.  California and Stanford survived but lost a lot of fans, but Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara, and San Francisco could not survive.

Denver and Dayton, along with Xavier, were cities where the American Football League came to town and in a couple of years had become as popular as the NFL, maybe more popular to younger football fans like me, who chose the pass-happy AFL over the conservative NFL.

What am I getting at by this long introduction?  As someone that has lived in Nashville for most of my six decades, I have watched Vanderbilt University struggle to compete in college football for the last 60 years.  The Commodores have never been a factor in the SEC since I was born.  Vandy had been a dominant program in the South through the 1920’s, and as late as 1937, the black and gold came within minutes of winning the SEC and going to the Rose Bowl, only to lose 9-7 to Alabama in the final game.

In 1948, the great Grantland Rice, a Vanderbilt alum, wrote in his national column at the end of the year that Vanderbilt was the best team in the nation.  That Commodore squad caught fire at halftime of the Kentucky game.  Sporting a record of 0-2-1 and trailing Kentucky 7-6, then Coach Henry “Red” Sanders blew his top in the locker room at the half.  Vanderbilt came out in the second half and destroyed a good Kentucky team 26-7.  Vandy followed it up with seven consecutive wins, all of them blowout victories, to finish 8-2-1.  They were invited to the 1949 Orange Bowl to play Georgia, but the Bulldogs had the right to refuse Vandy as part of a contractual agreement with the SEC Champions being allowed to choose their Orange Bowl opponent.  Georgia voted to play a much weaker Texas team, and the joke was on the Bulldogs, as Texas didn’t take kindly to being considered fodder.  The Longhorns hooked the Bulldogs.

In the 1950’s, under Coach Art Guepe, Vanderbilt completed a 5-year string where their worst record was 5-5.  Included in that run, the 1955 team went 8-3 with a Gator Bowl win over Auburn.  The 1955 to 1959 record was a combined 28-16-6.  Their last game of the 1950’s was a 14-0 win over Tennessee in Knoxville that kept the Vols out of a bowl.

Something happened in 1960 that forever changed Vanderbilt’s chances to compete in the SEC.  Beginning in 1960, and becoming more liberalized for the next four seasons, the NCAA changed the rules on substitution.  Through the 1950’s, college football was one platoon football.  In other words, a team’s starting eleven on offense was also its starting eleven on defense.  Centers became linebackers. Halfbacks became defensive halfbacks.  Often, a team’s quarterback was its free safety and basically defensive quarterback.  The change in rules started with one that allowed teams to remove their quarterback from having to play on defense.  By 1964, football was 100% two platoon.  Nobody had to start on both sides of the ball any more.  Teams could basically substitute at will on every play.

At the same time, another rule changed the game.  With one platoon football, coaches could not send a player into the game with the play call decided by coaches.  They could not use signals to try to relay a play call, as this resulted in a 15-yard penalty.  Thus, quarterbacks had to be their own offensive coordinators while their team had the ball and defensive coordinators when their team was on defense.,   

Under the one platoon rule, a team with 15 to 20 good players and a smart quarterback, like Don Orr, who could be a coach on the field could compete and even thrive.  By the 1960’s, to compete in major conferences like the SEC, a team needed 40 to 50 really good players, because teams with just 10-15 good players would be worn down by multiple substitutions.  This allowed players to beef up by 50 to 100 pounds, because they no longer needed to play 60 minutes.  

Vanderbilt stopped competing at the end of 1959.  Starting in 1960, with all the rules changes, other SEC schools could dominate the Commodores in most years just by numbers alone.  Tennessee could send three sets of offensive and defensive linemen into a game and see very little reduction in talent.  Georgia could send three sets of running backs into games against a Vanderbilt defense that did not have the depth to counter the move.  Thus, in many games over the next 25 years, Vandy could keep games close for a half and even into the third quarter, before they wore down and lost.

In the 1977 season, Vanderbilt led number one Oklahoma into the fourth quarter in Norman.  They were in a tossup game with Alabama.  They led LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Kentucky for large parts of the games before falling apart in the second half.  They lost all of those games and finished 2-9.

Brief interludes allowed Vanderbilt to post a couple of winning seasons overall.  Thanks to playing five “out of conference” games and just six conference games, the Commodores were able to go 5-0 outside of the SEC in both 1974 and 1975 and enjoy winning seasons.  The 1975 team went 7-4 but was outscored by almost two to one overall and more than three to one in conference games.  Only in 1982 did Vandy compete for the SEC championship.  

Under the genius of offensive coordinator Watson Brown, the Commodores became the first SEC team in over a dozen years to pass the ball more than they ran the ball.  Vandy threw the ball 40 to 50 times a game, and other teams were not ready with planned pass defense, as most defenses were still trying to stop the veer and wishbone offenses.  A fourth quarter collapse against number one Georgia led to the Bulldogs coming back to win.  Had Vandy hung on to win that game, they would have been SEC Champions and would have gone to the Sugar Bowl rather than the Hall of Fame Bowl in Birmingham.

After 1982, Vanderbilt did not post a winning season until they went 7-6 in 2008.  They have only enjoyed one other winning record in conference play, in 2012.  With the 2019 season concluding in two weeks for this year’s Commodores, and with a last place finish in the SEC East already assured, let’s look at some facts from the last 60 seasons of college football in Vandyville.

In 60 years:

Vanderbilt has finished with two winning records in the SEC, and they have finished in the top 5 of the league once.

Vanderbilt has finished in last place 32 out of 60 years and in second to last place another 18, meaning in 83.3%  of the time, Vandy has finished in last place or second to last place in the SEC.

Vanderbilt has finished SEC play without a conference win 19 different times and with one conference win 22 times.  That’s 68.3% of the time that they finished with zero or one conference win.

I could go on and on and show you how many times Vanderbilt finished last in offense and in defense in conference play, and how they once lost 33 consecutive SEC games, and so on.

Since 1998, Vanderbilt has had to share Nashville with the Tennessee Titans.  The Titans won the AFC and came within a yard of winning the Super Bowl in February of 2000.  They followed that up with the best record in the NFL in 2000 and players like Eddie George, Steve McNair, Albert Haynesworth, Frank Wycheck, and others became as famous in Nashville as Joe Dimaggio, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, and Babe Ruth were in New York City.

Once the Titans owned the Nashville market, Vanderbilt football attendance fell off by large numbers.  Even in the days when Vanderbilt was a perennial last place team in the SEC, Vanderbilt Stadium was full or close to full with Vanderbilt fans.  During the 1980’s, Vanderbilt public address announcer Frank Crowell would yell through the microphone for the fans in the stands to “stand up and show your gold!”  The deafening roar was so loud that the SEC opponents began to complain to the SEC that Vanderbilt held an unfair advantage, and their players could not hear their quarterbacks’ signals.  As unfair as the sideline benches were at Vandy’s Memorial Gymnasium, watching other teams jump and lose five yards for illegal procedure over and over led to the league banning Crowell’s calling for 35,000+ Vandy fans to stand up and show their gold.

As Nashville has become America’s “It” city, and 100 people began moving to town every day, the city became a new melting pot in America.  What was once a nice metropolitan area of about a half million people morphed into a major metropolis of two million in very little time.  The newcomers that came to town brought their former allegiances with them, and in a typical Saturday, you can find more people watching Big Ten football games on TV in Middle Tennessee than going to Vanderbilt games.  On a typical Saturday around Noon, if you drive to establishments showing football, you will see many out of state license plates, especially those from Illinois, Michigan, and Texas.  

Vanderbilt Stadium only sells out now when the opposing team buys 35,000 or more tickets.  At the Georgia and LSU games this year, the visiting crowd was so loud that Vanderbilt had to use silent signals in their home stadium to avoid jumping on offense and losing five yards for illegal procedure.  

As Nashville continues to become the new Los Angeles, and the majority of the sports fans in Nashville turn more and more to professional sports and continue to fill sports bars to watch their Big Ten and Pac-12 games on Saturday, Vanderbilt Stadium will continue to see fewer and fewer local fans coming to cheer the black and gold.  Even though Vanderbilt’s stadium seats 40,000, and the next smallest stadium in the SEC seats more than 61,000, there are not enough living alumni in the Nashville area to fill up Vanderbilt Stadium.  Only about 24,000 Vandy alums live within 90 minutes of Dudley Field.  At every other SEC school, there are more local alums within 90 minutes of their much larger stadiums than there are seats.  In Nashville, there are more than 5,000 Auburn alums living in the area, and most of these 5,000 will be in a seat at Vanderbilt Stadium when the Tigers make their infrequent visits to Vandy.  Obviously, the University of Tennessee dwarfs Vanderbilt in alums in the Nashville area, but there are also Nashville area alumni clubs for schools like Alabama, Florida, and Kentucky that outnumber membership of the local Vanderbilt club.  Only a small minority of Vanderbilt alumni “waste time on sports,” according to one distinguished Vandy alum I know.

Malcolm Turner has given Derek Mason a vote of confidence and a guarantee that he will continue to serve as head football coach at Vanderbilt.  What few fans that are left, and this could be as few as a couple thousand, were mostly opposed to this move.  Local media in Nashville reacted like the citizens of Nashville might have reacted had Governor Isham G. Harris stated in 1861 that Tennessee would stay in the Union. 

Coach Mason is not the reason for Vanderbilt’s 60 year inconsequential existence in the SEC during the Autumn months.  There are layers and layers of reasons why the program has failed with small peaks and large valleys through the decades.  Mason was spot on when he spoke of the program moving in waves.  In actuality, as I told a friend of mine who then posted what I said on another website, Vanderbilt has been caught up in a six-decade Tsunami, and only briefly was the football team able to poke its head above water.

There are other reasons why Vanderbilt football stands to suffer in the next decade.  The school is becoming more select when choosing its student body.  At the present time, Vanderbilt admits just one out of every 12 applicants.  That is more select than half of the Ivy League schools.  However, I have heard from faculty members that the figure of 5% has been mentioned as a future acceptance rate of applicants.

Vanderbilt does not have a Physical Education major or anything close to this.  Any student-athlete enrolling in the school is going to study more hours a day than he gets to devote to football.  Even though there are a couple of programs that athletes have been funneled toward, these are not the proverbial “basket-weaving” courses that public universities have offered for years. 

In a typical year, the top 350 high school football recruits are 4-stars with the top 25 qualifying for 5-stars.  The top SEC programs typically sign 20 to 25 players that are rated as 4-stars or 5-stars.  The next tier of SEC programs typically sign 10-20 of these top recruits.  The rest of the league, not including Vanderbilt, signs around 5 to 10 of these elite athletes.  In most years, Vanderbilt does not sign even one.  Only 16, 4-star recruits have signed with Vanderbilt in the 21st Century, according to 247sports.com.  No 5-star player has ever signed with Vanderbilt, and the school’s historically top two recruits both transferred to other schools during their collegiate careers when they figured out that the academic load and the poor results on the field were greatly reducing their draft stock. 

This year, three Vanderbilt offensive skill players chose to remain in school for their final seasons, when they all would have been second day draft picks had they chosen to go pro, and they would have walked down Lower Broadway in Nashville to crowds of more than 200,000 football fans at the NFL Draft.  Keyshawn Vaughn, Jared Pinkney, and Kalija Lipscomb have all seen their draft status weakened.  If they had another chance, they all would have likely declared for the NFL Draft or if possible would have become immediately eligible transfers elsewhere like Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma.  All three could have chosen to finish their careers at a place like Clemson or Oregon, where a future legendary pro quarterback was leading the offense.  How many catches might Pinkney or Lipscomb made with Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert throwing them the ball?  Imagine Vaughn playing in the backfield at Washington State, where Mike Leach could use a 1,000-yard running back who can also catch 50 passes out of the backfield.

This next part is strictly my opinion, but as a former coach of junior high and senior high basketball programs, I have seen reasons for why Vanderbilt football has ridden the so-called waves that Coach Mason speaks of.  Rather than describe the varying degrees of lack of success sprinkled with little teases of success, I would instead refer to the generations of America.  I am no Gertrude Stein, so I don’t tend to agree with the naming of the generations from the GI Generation through today’s Generation Z youth.  I have seen changes that require more than the generational tags that are famous today.  For instance, the so-called Baby Boomers born between 1946 and 1955 are not the same as those like me born between 1956 and 1964.  I was just young enough to miss Vietnam, but just old enough to remember Jack Ruby shooting Lee Harvey Oswald on live television.  My philosophy of life differs from my first cousin born in 1954 who saw many friends burning draft cards and leaving the US for Canada to avoid the Draft, or who fought courageously and then came home to be treated like they were coaches that went 0-12 on the football field.

For competition purposes, I separate this current young generation into two sub-groups: “Everybody Gets A Trophy” and “Every Competition Must Be Won.”   There was a time when Generation Z children competing in sports played on teams that did not keep score or standings.  Every child was a winner and nobody was a loser, and everybody received a trophy.  As a former basketball coach with a winning percentage over 80% over the course of two decades, when this became the norm, I left coaching.  Teaching our youth to play to win while playing fair and playing with sportsmanship was important to me.  Competition is important with some limits.

In recent years, as I neared the start of my golden years, I have been volunteering for a local group of kids that need organized athletic activity.  This includes basketball, baseball, and other sports.  In addition after dark during the late Fall and Winter, these kids conclude their late afternoons indoors playing air hockey, ping pong, chess, and other games.

Enough of today’s kids have gone to the other extreme from the “Everybody Gets A Trophy Kids.”   These kids play like every event is as important as the gladiators of ancient Rome.  They play for blood, and if anybody gets in their way, there is heck to pay.  If these kids I mentor were to form a basketball team, without any encouragement from me, they would play with the intensity that Bob Knight’s Indiana teams played between 1973 and 1987.  Just last week, one of these kids, a young girl, lost in a game of around the world basketball shooting for the very first time in her life.  This child has the potential to be a basketball star in high school and could have a college basketball career if she continues to grow to the height of her mother.

When she lost to a very athletic boy a year older than her, I thought she was going to destroy the building and bring it down like Samson.  She blew her top and accused the boy of cheating, which he did not.  She tried to throw a punch at him, and this is a boy that she has grown up knowing for all of their lives, as they couldn’t be any closer if they were brother and sister.

The psychology of being wrong with giving every kid a trophy has moved to the other extreme where every child believes he or she is the best and expects to win all the time.  This can only be viewed in generalities, as the term “every child” really only means that the needle has moved from 60% trophy and 40% win all the time to 60% win all the time and 40% trophy.

That 20% swing has been murder on schools like Vanderbilt.  Whereas a couple dozen of the top recruits in America might have been interested in finding out more about playing football for one of the finest academic institutions in the world, because just playing would get them a trophy, and in the meantime, that great diploma would lead to riches outside of football, today, the top recruits want to play the minimum three years and head on to the NFL.  They want to win, win, win, and appear on national television week after week where they can in the near future sell their likeness for top dollar.  Going to a top university where they would have to study many nights past Midnight and then have to worry more about that exam coming up next week than the All-American defensive end coming at them on Saturday isn’t something that appeals to enough of the top recruits that there are any left for the Vanderbilt’s of the world once the Georgia’s of the world have signed up their allotments.

The next Vaughn, Pinkney, or Lipscomb will look elsewhere to attend college.  Why ruin your chance to play in the NFL, where the backup quarterback on top college teams can become starters in the NFL?  Vanderbilt will be lucky to recruit 15, 3-star players in 2021.

Look at the rest of the NCAA FBS teams that are academic first schools.  Northwestern, Rice, and Stanford are not enjoying great years either.  Duke is on a downward spiral.  When Vanderbilt was enjoying its brief peak several years back, Stanford was making regular appearances in New Year’s Day Bowl games.  Northwestern was winning the Big Ten, and even Rice was enjoying a 10-win season.   In the past, when Vanderbilt was suffering through 33 consecutive SEC losses, Northwestern was struggling with three total wins in six years.  Rice was bringing up the rear in the old Southwest Conference.  

Vanderbilt cannot compete in the SEC in football, and the academic reputation is priceless; allowing athletes that might struggle at the high school across the street from Vanderbilt (my alma mater–University School) to attend would just not be prudent.  

Coach Mason has done a credible job in six years keeping Vanderbilt in contention to go to a bowl and he has taken the Commodores to two bowl games.  In 60 years, Vandy has been to eight bowls.  Mason has defeated Tennessee three years in a row.  The last coach to beat the Vols three years in a row was Dan McGugin in the mid 1920’s.  No other Vanderbilt coach ever beat Tennessee three times in their tenure much less three times in succession.

My belief is that eventually, Vanderbilt will not be able to afford to finance a football program at the Power Five Conference level and maybe at the FBS level.  Even with the SEC annual paycheck, the program struggles to stay solvent.  When other conference rivals enjoy $100 million annual revenues, and they have profits from $25 to $75 million a year, Vanderbilt struggles to balance their athletic books.

Basketball requires three scholarships per year to field a team of 12 players.  Vanderbilt can find three basketball recruits per year and compete against other Division 1 programs.  Of course, Vanderbilt cannot discontinue their football program and play in the SEC in other sports.  The obvious solution is to either eliminate football and play Division 1 in other sports while searching for another conference; or drop to FCS football and join an FCS conference that does not allow scholarships, while playing Division 1 in all other sports; or as an extreme de-emphasize sports altogether and go to Division III in whatever sports they need to field.

Without a football program, the football stadium can be demolished, and the property can be put to a better use, one that just might help the university move into the one top 10 that really matters to the school–The US News and World Report Top Ten of American Colleges and Universities.

There is a perfect fit for Vanderbilt in the Southern Athletic Association.  Schools in the SAA include Centre, Sewanee, Rhodes, and Millsaps.  These schools also have about the same number of dedicated football fans as Vanderbilt.

 

The average Vanderbilt fan may counter that Tim Corbin has given the school the best baseball program in the nation.  Corbin can recruit #1 classes year after year just like John Calipari does in basketball.  Baseball is a different affair, as only 11.7 scholarships are offered and spread among 27 students.  SEC baseball teams lose money by six-figures per season.  The sport cannot finance the rest of the athletic program.

More importantly is the loud rumor coming from Baltimore.  The Orioles’ lease at Camden Yards expires after 2021.  The long-time owner, Peter Angelos, has passed the age of 90 and is no longer able to participate in the operation of the club.  His sons have been attempting to sell the team to a local ownership group, but none have offered a reasonable price to keep the Orioles in Baltimore and renew the lease at Camden Yards.  The City of Baltimore has seen considerable decay within a mile or so of the ballpark, and night games at Oriole Park have seen fewer and fewer fans risking coming to the games to see a 100-game loser.  The Dodgers left Brooklyn in 1957 partly because Flatbush was not that safe at night.

To fuel the rumor that the Orioles might consider relocating to Nashville for the 2022 season, John Angelos, the son operating the team, recently purchased a mansion in neighboring Williamson County near I-65.  There have been rumors coming from Baltimore since May that Nashville is definitely in play to become the new home of the Orioles in 2022 if no local baron or baroness comes forward to buy the team and keep it there.  

About that same time this news began to leak, a group of heavy hitters, including Tony LaRussa, Dave Stewart, former U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, former Starbucks CEO and briefly Presidential candidate Howard Schultz, and others have created “Music City Baseball,” with a goal of bringing Major League Baseball to the Music City and to construct a retractable dome stadium capable of also hosting basketball’s Final Four, adjacent to the Titan’s Nissan Stadium.  Among others involved in Music City Baseball are Tim Corbin and Malcolm Turner.   MLB Commissioner Ron Manfred publicly stated at the 2018 All-Star Game that Nashville was one of the cities on a short list for a future Major League team, be it a relocated team or expansion team when the league expands to 32.  Manfred explicitly stated that solving the issue of the league’s teams that do not have stadium deals in the near future would take precedence over expansion.  At the time, he referred to the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays, but now Baltimore can be added to that list. 

Oakland appeared to have its stadium issue finally solved, but recent developments have deep-sixed those plans, and the team does not have a plan in place for a new park.  The A’s could very well go with the Raiders to Las Vegas.  Tampa Bay is basically partially moving to Montreal and will play a good number of home games in Quebec.  This is a warning to the Tampa-St. Petersburg market, but the powers that be in West Florida are not listening.  The Rays will move to Montreal in the near future.

Manfred’s remaining short list cities after removing Vegas and Montreal are Portland, Nashville, and Charlotte.  If the Orioles move to Nashville, expansion teams can be placed in Portland and Charlotte, and the entire short-list mentioned by Manfred would get a team. The pieces fit in perfectly. 

If the Baltimore Orioles become the Nashville Orioles or Nashville Stars, Tim Corbin will no longer remain as head baseball coach at Vanderbilt.  He will be part of the management with the Major League team.  Malcolm Turner, recently the highly successful Commissioner of the NBA G-League, could easily slide into an upper management position or even become part of the Major League Baseball Front Office. 

It is time to move Vanderbilt’s Doomsday Clock to two minutes before Midnight.  The next five years may decide whether that clock strikes 12 or if Turner can perform miracles worthy of Sainthood and turn the clock back 60 years.

November 17, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:58 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

Ohio

-19.2

-18.6

-19.6

Northern Illinois

Eastern Michigan

7.8

7.0

7.7

 

 

Wednesday

November 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo

Toledo

7.2

7.6

7.9

Miami (O)

Akron

28.6

27.9

30.7

 

 

Thursday

November 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

North Carolina St.

-1.4

-2.0

-0.8

 

 

Friday

November 22

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wyoming

Colorado St.

13.6

12.2

13.5

 

 

Saturday

November 23

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Texas St.

32.6

31.4

33.0

Arizona

Utah

-26.6

-25.9

-27.9

Arizona St.

Oregon

-12.5

-13.4

-13.7

Arkansas St.

Georgia Southern

-3.2

-3.0

-3.3

Baylor

Texas

4.9

4.7

4.3

Charlotte

Marshall

-5.1

-4.4

-5.6

Cincinnati

Temple

10.3

10.4

9.5

Colorado

Washington

-14.7

-14.5

-15.9

Connecticut

East Carolina

-10.7

-9.3

-12.1

Florida Int’l.

Miami (Fla.)

-21.9

-21.8

-23.4

Fresno St.

Nevada

9.6

8.9

10.1

Georgia

Texas A&M

12.9

12.8

14.3

Georgia St.

South Alabama

18.7

17.2

18.5

Hawaii

San Diego St.

1.8

1.5

1.0

Indiana

Michigan

-11.4

-10.9

-11.7

Iowa

Illinois

17.8

15.2

18.0

Iowa St.

Kansas

22.7

22.2

23.3

Kent St.

Ball St.

0.0

0.4

0.5

Louisiana

Troy

9.2

8.9

9.8

Louisville

Syracuse

0.9

1.5

1.6

LSU

Arkansas

47.1

45.0

48.0

Maryland

Nebraska

-2.8

-4.4

-3.4

Massachusetts

BYU

-43.3

-42.0

-44.6

Middle Tennessee

Old Dominion

17.3

16.1

16.8

Missouri

Tennessee

3.4

1.0

3.2

Navy

SMU

-4.8

-2.2

-4.6

New Mexico

Air Force

-22.0

-21.4

-24.2

New Mexico St.

UTEP

8.7

6.8

8.1

Northwestern

Minnesota

-14.6

-15.4

-16.0

Notre Dame

Boston College

19.4

18.6

19.2

Ohio St.

Penn St.

19.8

20.0

21.3

Oklahoma

TCU

18.4

15.3

17.6

Rice

North Texas

-4.9

-3.6

-5.7

Rutgers

Michigan St.

-21.5

-20.8

-21.9

South Florida

Memphis

-13.6

-12.8

-14.3

Southern Miss.

Western Kentucky

6.8

4.8

5.6

Stanford

California

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

Texas Tech

Kansas St.

-1.6

-1.1

-2.3

Tulane

Central Florida

-9.5

-8.1

-9.6

Tulsa

Houston

0.6

0.7

0.1

UAB

Louisiana Tech

-4.4

-2.6

-4.1

UL-Monroe

Coastal Carolina

1.4

0.5

0.9

UNLV

San Jose St.

-2.5

-3.0

-3.3

USC

UCLA

12.2

12.9

13.2

Utah St.

Boise St.

-3.6

-4.3

-2.9

UTSA

Florida Atlantic

-19.8

-18.1

-21.3

Virginia

Liberty

18.6

17.4

18.3

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

5.0

5.3

5.6

Wake Forest

Duke

6.2

6.2

6.5

Washington St.

Oregon St.

15.1

13.3

15.7

West Virginia

Oklahoma St.

-5.8

-6.7

-6.0

Wisconsin

Purdue

19.5

19.4

20.0

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Alabama

Western Carolina

56

Auburn

Samford

49

Kentucky

UT-Martin

29

Mississippi St.

Abilene Christian

35

North Carolina

Mercer

38

Vanderbilt

East Tennessee

21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

2

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

3

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

4

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

5

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

8

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

9

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

10

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

11

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

12

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

13

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

14

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

15

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

16

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

17

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

18

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

19

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

20

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

21

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

22

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

23

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

24

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

25

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

27

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

28

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

29

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

30

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

31

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

33

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

34

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

35

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

36

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

37

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

38

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

39

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

40

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

41

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

42

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

43

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

45

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

46

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

47

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

48

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

49

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

50

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

51

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

52

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

53

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

54

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

55

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

56

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

57

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

58

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

59

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

60

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

61

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

62

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

63

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

64

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

65

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

67

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

68

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

69

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

70

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

71

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

72

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

74

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

75

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

79

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

80

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

82

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

83

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

84

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

85

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

86

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

87

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

88

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

89

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

90

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

91

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

92

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

93

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

94

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

95

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

98

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

99

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

101

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

102

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

103

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

104

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

105

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

106

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

107

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

108

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

109

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

111

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

112

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

114

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

115

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

116

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

118

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

119

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

122

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

124

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

125

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

126

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

128

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

129

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

130

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

6-0

9-1

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

4-2

7-3

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

2-4

4-6

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

5-1

9-1

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

5-1

9-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

3-3

6-4

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

5-1

7-2

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

1-5

3-7

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

97.0

97.7

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

8-0

11-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

4-4

6-5

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

3-3

7-3

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

3-4

5-5

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

1-5

4-6

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

4-3

6-4

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

1-5

4-6

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

4-3

6-4

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

5-2

7-3

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

5-2

7-3

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

3-4

4-6

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

4-2

7-3

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

2-5

4-6

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

1-6

2-8

ACC Averages

105.0

104.4

105.3

104.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

6-1

9-1

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

4-3

6-4

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

6-1

9-1

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

4-3

6-4

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

4-3

7-3

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

3-4

6-4

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

3-4

5-5

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

2-5

4-6

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

2-5

4-6

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

1-6

3-7

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

7-0

10-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

5-2

8-2

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

6-1

9-1

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

4-3

7-3

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

2-5

4-6

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

0-7

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

5-2

8-2

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

6-1

9-1

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

4-3

7-3

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

4-3

6-4

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

2-5

4-6

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

0-7

2-8

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

5-1

7-3

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

4-2

6-4

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

2-4

3-7

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

5-1

7-3

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

5-1

8-2

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

4-2

7-3

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

3-3

4-6

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

1-5

1-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

3-3

4-6

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

0-7

1-9

CUSA Averages

86.5

87.1

86.9

86.8

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

x

8-2

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

x

6-4

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

x

5-6

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

x

1-9

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

x

1-10

Indep. Averages

89.9

90.5

89.6

90.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

3-3

5-5

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

3-3

4-6

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

5-1

6-4

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

3-3

4-6

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

2-4

3-7

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

0-6

0-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

5-2

7-4

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-3

4-6

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

3-3

4-6

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

5-2

7-4

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

3-3

6-4

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

2-4

5-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.9

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

6-0

9-1

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

5-1

8-2

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

5-1

6-4

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

3-3

6-4

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

3-3

4-6

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

5-2

8-2

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

4-3

7-4

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

2-4

4-6

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

1-5

4-6

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

3-3

6-4

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

1-6

2-8

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.5

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

7-0

9-1

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

2-5

5-5

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

2-5

5-5

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

3-5

4-6

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

4-3

5-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

6-1

9-1

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

6-2

7-4

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

2-5

5-5

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

4-3

4-6

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-5

4-6

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6-1

9-1

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

7-2

9-2

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

3-3

5-5

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

2-4

5-5

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

3-5

5-5

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

3-5

4-7

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

6-0

10-0

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

6-1

9-1

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

4-3

7-3

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

4-2

7-3

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

2-5

4-6

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

2-5

4-7

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

113.7

111.9

113.5

113.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

5-1

9-1

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

4-2

6-4

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

3-3

5-5

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

3-3

6-4

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

1-5

4-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

5-1

8-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

4-2

6-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

3-3

4-6

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

2-4

3-7

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

0-6

1-9

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.0

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.9

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.0

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.8

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

SMU

5

Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgia could be headed to the playoffs if they both win out, and then Georgia pulls off a mild upset in the SEC Championship Game. There is also a small chance that Alabama could sneak back into the picture if LSU beats Georgia, and then Alabama thrashes Auburn on The Plains to show the Committee that losing Tua Tagovailoa didn’t weaken the Tide enough to knock them out of the Playoff picture. Either way, there is a decent chance that the SEC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially if Oklahoma loses another game and Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12.

Alabama and Florida are almost assured of receiving New Year’s Six Bowl Bids, and if Alabama sneaks into the Playoffs, then Georgia will replace the Tide in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Citrus bowl would then take Auburn. Texas A&M is almost a cinch to go to the Texas Bowl this year, where some backroom deals are being made to place Texas in there as a dream match-up. Tennessee is one win away from a possible destination in Jacksonville in the Gator Bowl, while Kentucky needs only to beat UT-Martin this week to earn a trip to a possible Outback Bowl game against a possible neighboring rival.

At this point, there are no more happy guarantees for the great SEC. Mississippi State is going to beat Abilene Christian this weekend to get to 5-6, but then they must turn around and face Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day, while the Rebels get this week off to prepare an extra few days. The way the two teams are playing presently, Ole Miss looks like the superior team, so we will count out Mississippi State at 5-7.

Missouri is 5-5, and the Tigers still have to play Arkansas, so even though they have lost four consecutive games, Mizzou is going to be 6-6. The Tigers are still in limbo with the NCAA. While Missouri is on probation and has a bowl ban, their legal team has filed an appeal, and the NCAA has yet to rule on it and might not rule on it until after bowl bids have been issued. It looks like the NCAA is going to turn the other cheek to help the SEC out, and then rule after the bowl season on the matter, or they could rule that Missouri has done enough in-house corrections to get a reprieve. Then, again, there is a lot of dissension going on in Columbia, and the school may choose to close up shop after the Arkansas game and self-impose on taking a meaningless bowl game at 6-6.

The SEC has agreements with 11 bowls not including the Playoffs. If two SEC teams make the Playoffs, then the SEC will have the need for 13 bowl eligible teams and will most likely have eight or nine bowl eligible teams. If Maalox wants to create a nice promotion, they will send free cases of their product to the members of the Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls, and possibly the Belk Bowl.

With the possibility of some really weak bowl match-ups, you can expect this season to produce at least one if not two or three “backroom” deals to place better at-large teams in the bowls where the opponent is a Power Five team. A 9-3 Power Conference team playing a 6-6 Group of 5 team just cannot be allowed.

What you see in our Bowl Projections are the raw projections strictly following the bowl rules. As information leaks about potential back-room deals, we will try to stay on top of all the news and rumors.

Here is a conference by conference look at the bowl eligible teams and those that can still become bowl eligible.

American Athletic

Bowl Eligible: 7
Memphis, SMU, Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Temple

Still Alive: South Florida

If either Memphis or Cincinnati win out to capture the AAC Title, that team will head to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 best champion. SMU could also earn this bid if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, while the Mustangs win out, including beating Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Navy has a remote chance at getting to the Cotton Bowl. Memphis and SMU would both have to lose in the regular season, while Navy wins out and beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game, and Boise State would have to lose in the Mountain West.
South Florida merely has to beat Memphis and Central Florida to earn a bowl, so it isn’t going to be a Bulls Market this year.

Atlantic Coast (+ Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh

Still Alive: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, N. Carolina St., and Syracuse

Clemson has the best chance of any team of going 13-0 before the Playoffs, but we are starting to see just a little extra possibility that if Virginia Tech takes care of Pittsburgh and Virginia, the Hokies will be a little more formidable than the experts are given them credit for being. Va. Tech was dismissed for dead earlier in the season, but Justin Fuente has done an incredible job re-shaping the Hokie team to where they look like the second best team in the league. If Tech beats Pitt and Virginia, they will most likely be the Orange Bowl representative even if Clemson pounds them in the ACC Championship Game.

At this point, our forecast calls for North Carolina to top Mercer and NC State to finish 6-6 and grab the last bowl spot that goes to the ACC. We don’t see a path to 6-6 for the other teams still alive.

Big 12

Bowl Eligible: 6
Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St.

Still Alive: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The PiRate Ratings do not forecast Oklahoma to win out and sneak into the Playoffs, but don’t assume we are picking Baylor to get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have to go to Stillwater to face the much-improved Cowboys, and we believe Oklahoma St. has a very decent chance to pull off the upset and ruin the league’s chances to get into the Playoffs.

Of the teams still fighting for bowl eligibility, we believe TCU can beat West Virginia in Fort Worth to get their sixth win, but Tech and the Mountaineers might both be staring at 5-7 seasons.

Big Ten

Bowl Eligible: 7

Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Still Alive: Michigan St., Nebraska, Purdue

This is the most interesting race for the Playoffs and Bowl seeding. First, Ohio State must now close with wins against Penn State, Michigan, and the Western Division Champion in the Conference Championship Game to guarantee a Playoff spot. Only the Penn State game is in the Giant Horseshoe. We remember 50 years ago quite well, when an 8-0 Ohio State team that many were calling the greatest college football team since Army in 1945, went to the Big House to play a two-loss Michigan team that remembered being thrashed in Columbus the previous year. That Ohio State team was a double-digit favorite and got thrashed by a Michigan defense that played well over its potential that day.

Assuming Ohio State handles Penn State this weekend, could history repeat itself 50 years later? Of course, James Franklin has a history of getting underdog teams psyched up to win big road games, so the Nittany Lions could still be in the Big Ten Championship picture.

On the other side, Minnesota still controls its own destiny, but then so does Wisconsin. The Gophers did everything but beat Iowa in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes frequently win games at home with final stats that on paper look like they lost by a couple of touchdowns. The Gophers get Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

There is even a bizarre scenario where Illinois could win the West Division flag. This requires Minnesota to lose to Northwestern and Wisconsin; for Wisconsin to lose to Purdue, while the Illini beat Iowa and Northwestern. The chances for this to happen are about the same as Lovie Smith taking over Alabama for Nick Saban in 2020.

Michigan State is now 4-6, and the Spartans look like an offense from the days of one platoon football. Their defense has fallen apart with all the extra snaps it has had to face, but now Sparty catches a break. MSU closes with Rutgers and Maryland, so the Green and White have about a 95% chance of improving to 6-6 and getting a bottom tier bowl bid.

Nebraska is 4-6 with games remaining against Maryland and Iowa. We have a suspicion that Scott Frost will have his team prepared to face the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium and will pull off the upset to close at 6-6 and get the final bowl bid in this league.

Purdue must beat both Wisconsin and Indiana to get to 6-6, and by the time they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, their long snapper might be the backup quarterback. Better luck next year Boilermakers.

Because the Big Ten has the most strict bowl tie-ins, certain teams cannot go to certain bowls if they have been to them in the last five years. What this means is:

The Citrus Bowl will not invite Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State

The Outback Bowl will not invite Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Holiday Bowl will not invite Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Gator Bowl will not invite Iowa or Penn St.

The Pinstripe Bowl will not invite Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin

The Redbox Bowl will not invite Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, or Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl will not invite Minnesota

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss., UAB

Still Alive: Charlotte, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UTSA

Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, so it the Thundering Herd beat Charlotte and FIU, they will be East Division champs. In the West, Louisiana Tech controls their destiny, but if the Bulldogs lose to UAB, then Southern Miss can win out and take the division flag.

Of the teams still alive, Charlotte and North Texas have the best chances to get to six wins, while FIU and UTSA have close to zero chances to do so. Because this league could have eight bowl eligible teams, and they have just five primary tie-ins, two or three teams will get at-large invitations, and deals could be made to send better teams to at-large spots.

Independents (not Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 2
BYU, Liberty

Still Alive: Army

BYU has earned its guaranteed Hawaii Bowl bid with its sixth win. Liberty doesn’t have a primary bowl bid, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl. Since the AAC is likely to send its champion to the Cotton Bowl, the Cure Bowl bid could be there for Liberty.

Army must beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Navy to get to 7-6. We don’t see it happening this year.

Mid-American

Bowl Eligible: 4
Miami (O), Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive: Buffalo, Kent St., Ohio, Ball St., Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois

Not having a dominating team and having to play games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays have led to MACtion being one big season-long toss-up with a lot of parity. Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division title, as the Red Hawks hold all potential tiebreakers over Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St. The West is a different story as four teams are still technically alive. Western Michigan will win the division if the Broncos beat both Ohio and Northern Illinois, but both games are on the road, and we don’t believe WMU will go 2-0.

Central Michigan must win at Ball State and then beat Toledo at home and then hope that WMU loses to Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois and Toledo are still mathematically alive in the race but need multiple things to happen to sneak into the top spot in the West.

There are still six teams trying to become eligible, and by the time the regular season concludes, we believe the MAC will have eight bowl eligible teams with five teams at 6-6. Not all these 6-6 teams will have bowl spots available to them, but the MAC should receive at least one extra bowl invitation and possibly two.

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Utah St., Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St.

Still Alive: Colorado St., Fresno St., San Jose St.

Boise State must win out and hope for the AAC to implode and produce a two-loss league champion in order for the Broncos to ascend to the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. could be 12-1 and relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl. If that happens, and the Pac-12 has a 6-6 team available, there is a chance that a deal could be made to send the Pac-12 team east and bring a 10 or 11-win team like Appalachian State or SMU to Vegas. Or, Boise State could be sent east to play in a Liberty, Music City, or Belk Bowl where no SEC team is available.

Air Force is looking at 10-2 and another potential bad bowl match-up, and because the Falcons can basically bring the entire Academy, they can fill up a bowl stadium even if it’s 1,500 miles from Colorado Springs.

In the West, the winner of the San Diego State-Hawaii game this week gets to face Boise State with a chance for the big upset. Technically, Air Force and Utah State are still alive in the Mountain, but Boise State has to lose twice for that to happen.
Of the three teams still with a chance to become bowl eligible, Colorado State has to beat both Wyoming and Boise State, so the Rams are staying home for the holidays. Fresno State and San Jose State are looking at a season finale where they will face off in San Jose with probably 5-6 records. The Spartans look like the stronger team in November, so we’ll give SJSU the final bid.

Pac-12

Bowl Eligible: 4
Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah

Still Alive: California, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St. Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, UCLA

The entire conference is still alive for a bowl! That’s a blessing and a curse. There is so much parity that when USC beat Utah, they severely damaged this league’s chance to sneak a team into the Playoffs. Even if either Utah or Oregon wins out to finish 12-1, they are almost assuredly relegated to Pasadena and not to the Playoffs. Oregon dominated Auburn until the final few minutes to start the season, and that game is just as important as the Utah loss to the Trojans.

Of the eight remaining teams not yet bowl eligible, we believe that three will get to six wins. Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA don’t look like they have enough talent to win the games they must win to get to 6-6. Any 6-6 team in this league will be in a bowl.

Southeastern

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M

Still Alive: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi St.

See above for the explanation for the SEC. We believe nine teams will be bowl eligible, or eight if Missouri either self-imposes a bowl ban, or the NCAA denies their appeal before December.

Sunbelt

Bowl Eligible: 5
Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St.. Arkansas St., Louisiana

Still Alive: Coastal Carolina, Troy, UL-Monroe

It will take a monumental chain of events for Appy State and Lousiana not to meet in the SBC Championship Game. Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Troy all still hold miniscule division title hopes in the East, while Arkansas St. and UL-Monroe are still mathematically alive in the West.

This is the only conference where we don’t see an additional team still alive becoming bowl eligible.

This Week’s Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Nevada]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Central Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Ball St.

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

California

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Western Kentucky

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Central Florida

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Charlotte]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Wake Forest

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Marshall

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Eastern Michigan]

Virginia

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[North Texas]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Hawaii

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Alabama

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[UAB]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 10, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 10, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 12

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio

Western Mich.

-2.6

-2.6

-2.0

Akron

Eastern Mich.

-14.9

-15.1

-16.4

 

 

Wednesday

November 13

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O)

Bowling Green

17.8

16.7

18.3

Toledo

Northern Illinois

1.1

2.3

1.8

 

 

Thursday

November 14

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Kent St.

Buffalo

-3.2

-4.0

-4.4

Pittsburgh

North Carolina

3.3

3.2

2.9

 

 

Friday

November 15

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

-3.0

-3.9

-2.8

San Diego St.

Fresno St.

4.7

5.3

3.9

 

 

Saturday

November 16

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rutgers

Ohio St.

-53.2

-52.7

-55.8

Auburn

Georgia

-1.2

-1.2

-1.7

Utah

UCLA

24.9

24.0

26.0

Nebraska

Wisconsin

-14.0

-13.1

-14.7

Michigan

Michigan St.

14.5

14.1

15.5

Iowa

Minnesota

2.9

1.1

2.9

Oklahoma St.

Kansas

17.6

17.1

17.3

California

USC

-0.6

-1.3

-0.5

Washington St.

Stanford

10.3

10.2

11.1

Oregon St.

Arizona St.

-3.9

-2.1

-4.5

Northwestern

Massachusetts

48.4

45.6

48.4

Mississippi St.

Alabama

-20.2

-20.3

-16.8

Penn St.

Indiana

15.8

15.7

16.1

Missouri

Florida

-11.4

-11.2

-11.7

Texas Tech

TCU

1.3

-1.0

0.3

Temple

Tulane

1.7

0.3

2.0

UAB

UTEP

22.0

19.9

21.8

Notre Dame

Navy

23.0

19.0

21.8

Arkansas St.

Coastal Carolina

7.2

6.2

7.4

Georgia Southern

UL-Monroe

14.1

13.4

14.0

Texas St.

Troy

-7.2

-7.3

-7.0

Clemson

Wake Forest

34.5

33.0

35.4

Kansas St.

West Virginia

15.1

15.4

15.9

Houston

Memphis

-5.9

-5.1

-4.6

Ball St.

Central Mich.

4.8

3.7

4.1

Iowa St.

Texas

8.3

8.5

8.8

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

-6.3

-7.8

-6.6

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

-12.3

-12.4

-12.4

Duke

Syracuse

7.7

7.8

8.1

UNLV

Hawaii

-7.5

-7.2

-6.8

Utah St.

Wyoming

2.8

-0.1

2.8

Middle Tennessee

Rice

12.8

11.1

13.6

South Alabama

Louisiana

-24.3

-22.1

-25.2

UTSA

Southern Miss.

-18.5

-15.2

-19.0

Ole Miss

LSU

-21.7

-20.1

-21.7

South Florida

Cincinnati

-13.2

-11.8

-13.4

Colorado St.

Air Force

-15.1

-12.8

-15.3

Baylor

Oklahoma

-6.3

-5.4

-6.4

Texas A&M

South Carolina

8.9

9.0

8.6

North Carolina St.

Louisville

0.5

0.1

0.4

Georgia St.

Appalachian St.

-11.6

-9.3

-11.3

Boise St.

New Mexico

28.6

26.2

29.9

Oregon

Arizona

27.5

27.9

29.2

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Florida St.

Alabama St.

39

Army

VMI

31

BYU

Idaho St.

31

New Mexico St.

Incarnate Word

10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.6

139.8

141.9

140.8

2

Clemson

135.9

133.8

137.0

135.6

3

Alabama

134.3

131.1

134.8

133.4

4

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

5

Georgia

127.1

125.3

127.3

126.6

6

Florida

125.3

122.6

124.9

124.2

7

Utah

124.0

122.9

124.8

123.9

8

Penn St.

123.6

122.7

123.7

123.4

9

Michigan

123.3

121.9

123.6

122.9

10

Auburn

122.8

121.1

122.6

122.2

11

Oklahoma

122.4

121.6

121.9

122.0

12

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Minnesota

118.9

118.8

118.8

118.8

15

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

16

Notre Dame

118.3

116.8

118.1

117.7

17

Iowa St.

115.6

116.2

116.0

115.9

18

Texas A&M

116.5

114.9

115.4

115.6

19

Washington

113.8

113.5

114.8

114.0

20

Baylor

113.2

113.2

112.5

113.0

21

Kansas St.

112.2

112.1

112.2

112.2

22

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

112.0

111.4

23

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.8

115.0

111.3

24

Indiana

110.9

109.9

110.6

110.5

25

Oklahoma St.

110.3

111.0

110.0

110.4

26

Texas

110.3

110.6

110.3

110.4

27

Washington St.

110.6

109.7

110.9

110.4

28

Missouri

110.9

108.4

110.2

109.8

29

Michigan St.

110.3

109.4

109.6

109.8

30

South Carolina

110.6

108.9

109.8

109.8

31

Tennessee

109.9

109.7

109.2

109.6

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.3

108.0

109.5

108.6

33

U S C

108.2

108.7

108.7

108.6

34

T C U

107.4

109.9

107.7

108.3

35

Kentucky

108.3

106.9

107.0

107.4

36

Cincinnati

107.3

106.8

107.7

107.3

37

Virginia

107.1

107.0

107.1

107.1

38

Ole Miss

106.8

106.1

106.9

106.6

39

Arizona St.

106.6

105.9

106.9

106.5

40

Memphis

106.2

106.2

107.0

106.5

41

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

42

Texas Tech

106.2

106.4

105.5

106.0

43

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

106.3

106.0

44

North Carolina

105.7

105.5

106.4

105.9

45

Boise St.

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

46

SMU

105.2

104.9

105.9

105.3

47

California

104.6

104.3

105.3

104.7

48

Air Force

104.0

105.3

104.8

104.7

49

Virginia Tech

104.4

104.5

105.1

104.7

50

Florida St.

104.4

104.4

104.6

104.5

51

Wake Forest

104.4

103.8

104.7

104.3

52

Illinois

103.8

104.7

103.6

104.1

53

Purdue

103.7

103.5

103.1

103.4

54

Nebraska

103.4

103.9

102.6

103.3

55

Duke

103.5

102.7

103.2

103.1

56

Stanford

103.3

102.5

102.8

102.9

57

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.6

102.7

58

Boston College

102.1

101.7

102.3

102.0

59

U C L A

102.0

101.9

101.8

101.9

60

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

61

Northwestern

102.1

101.0

100.7

101.3

62

Tulane

100.0

100.8

100.5

100.4

63

Wyoming

99.3

101.4

100.0

100.2

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

West Virginia

100.1

99.7

99.3

99.7

66

Navy

98.2

100.8

99.2

99.4

67

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

68

Temple

98.6

98.1

99.6

98.8

69

Louisville

98.8

98.5

98.6

98.6

70

Syracuse

98.8

98.0

98.1

98.3

71

Florida Atlantic

97.8

97.8

99.2

98.3

72

Houston

97.3

98.2

99.4

98.3

73

Western Michigan

98.4

97.4

98.1

98.0

74

Louisiana Tech

97.1

97.5

97.6

97.4

75

San Diego St.

96.6

98.2

96.2

97.0

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.3

97.1

96.4

79

Maryland

97.2

96.0

95.6

96.3

80

Kansas

95.8

96.8

95.7

96.1

81

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

82

North Carolina St.

96.2

95.6

96.0

95.9

83

Fresno St.

94.9

95.9

95.3

95.4

84

Hawaii

94.9

96.2

93.8

95.0

85

Army

94.9

95.1

94.4

94.8

86

Georgia Tech

95.1

93.7

95.5

94.8

87

Tulsa

93.3

94.2

94.6

94.0

88

Buffalo

93.1

93.8

94.6

93.8

89

Vanderbilt

94.5

93.0

93.1

93.5

90

Western Kentucky

92.7

93.6

94.3

93.5

91

Ohio

93.3

92.3

93.6

93.1

92

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

93

South Florida

91.1

92.0

91.3

91.5

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

91.0

90.6

91.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.1

91.2

90.4

90.5

98

Ball St.

90.6

90.2

90.8

90.5

99

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.9

90.7

89.9

100

Middle Tennessee

90.0

89.2

90.1

89.8

101

Northern Illinois

89.7

88.9

89.8

89.5

102

Central Michigan

88.4

89.0

89.3

88.9

103

Colorado St.

87.4

91.0

88.0

88.8

104

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

105

San Jose St.

88.0

89.9

88.2

88.7

106

U A B

87.7

89.5

88.1

88.5

107

Nevada

87.8

89.4

87.3

88.2

108

North Texas

87.8

87.4

88.1

87.8

109

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

110

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

111

Arkansas

87.1

87.0

86.3

86.8

112

Charlotte

85.8

86.2

86.2

86.1

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

114

Florida Int’l.

85.5

85.2

85.2

85.3

115

Eastern Michigan

84.4

84.5

84.7

84.6

116

East Carolina

83.6

85.0

84.0

84.2

117

Rutgers

84.4

84.1

83.2

83.9

118

U N L V

83.4

85.0

83.0

83.8

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

80.1

82.5

78.8

80.5

121

Rice

79.7

80.6

78.9

79.8

122

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.7

75.6

76.3

123

New Mexico St.

75.7

77.5

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.3

74.1

74.3

74.3

126

Old Dominion

73.7

74.0

73.8

73.8

127

Connecticut

70.9

73.7

69.9

71.5

128

U T E P

68.8

72.7

69.4

70.3

129

Akron

67.1

66.9

65.8

66.6

130

Massachusetts

56.3

57.9

54.8

56.3

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.4

2

BTen

111.2

3

B12

109.4

4

P12

107.3

5

ACC

105.0

6

AAC

97.4

7

MWC

93.9

8

SUN

91.0

9

Ind

89.7

10

MAC

87.1

11

CUSA

86.7

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Alabama

5

Georgia

6

Oregon

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

Navy

5

SMU

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

112.0

111.4

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

107.3

106.8

107.7

107.3

5-0

8-1

Temple

98.6

98.1

99.6

98.8

3-2

6-3

South Florida

91.1

92.0

91.3

91.5

2-3

4-5

East Carolina

83.6

85.0

84.0

84.2

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

70.9

73.7

69.9

71.5

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

106.2

106.2

107.0

106.5

4-1

8-1

SMU

105.2

104.9

105.9

105.3

5-1

9-1

Tulane

100.0

100.8

100.5

100.4

3-2

6-3

Navy

98.2

100.8

99.2

99.4

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.3

98.2

99.4

98.3

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

93.3

94.2

94.6

94.0

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.9

133.8

137.0

135.6

7-0

10-0

Florida St.

104.4

104.4

104.6

104.5

4-4

5-5

Wake Forest

104.4

103.8

104.7

104.3

3-2

7-2

Boston College

102.1

101.7

102.3

102.0

3-4

5-5

Louisville

98.8

98.5

98.6

98.6

3-3

5-4

Syracuse

98.8

98.0

98.1

98.3

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.2

95.6

96.0

95.9

1-4

4-5

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.3

108.0

109.5

108.6

4-3

6-4

Virginia

107.1

107.0

107.1

107.1

5-2

7-3

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

106.3

106.0

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.7

105.5

106.4

105.9

3-3

4-5

Virginia Tech

104.4

104.5

105.1

104.7

4-2

6-3

Duke

103.5

102.7

103.2

103.1

2-4

4-5

Georgia Tech

95.1

93.7

95.5

94.8

1-5

2-7

ACC Averages

105.1

104.5

105.3

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.4

121.6

121.9

122.0

5-1

8-1

Iowa St.

115.6

116.2

116.0

115.9

3-3

5-4

Baylor

113.2

113.2

112.5

113.0

6-0

9-0

Kansas St.

112.2

112.1

112.2

112.2

3-3

6-3

Oklahoma St.

110.3

111.0

110.0

110.4

3-3

6-3

Texas

110.3

110.6

110.3

110.4

4-2

6-3

T C U

107.4

109.9

107.7

108.3

2-4

4-5

Texas Tech

106.2

106.4

105.5

106.0

2-4

4-5

West Virginia

100.1

99.7

99.3

99.7

1-5

3-6

Kansas

95.8

96.8

95.7

96.1

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.6

139.8

141.9

140.8

6-0

9-0

Penn St.

123.6

122.7

123.7

123.4

5-1

8-1

Michigan

123.3

121.9

123.6

122.9

4-2

7-2

Indiana

110.9

109.9

110.6

110.5

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

110.3

109.4

109.6

109.8

2-4

4-5

Maryland

97.2

96.0

95.6

96.3

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.4

84.1

83.2

83.9

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

4-2

7-2

Minnesota

118.9

118.8

118.8

118.8

6-0

9-0

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

3-3

6-3

Illinois

103.8

104.7

103.6

104.1

4-3

6-4

Purdue

103.7

103.5

103.1

103.4

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.4

103.9

102.6

103.3

2-4

4-5

Northwestern

102.1

101.0

100.7

101.3

0-7

1-8

Big Ten Averages

111.5

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

97.8

97.8

99.2

98.3

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.7

93.6

94.3

93.5

4-2

6-4

Marshall

91.0

90.6

91.8

91.1

4-1

6-3

Middle Tennessee

90.0

89.2

90.1

89.8

2-3

3-6

Charlotte

85.8

86.2

86.2

86.1

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.5

85.2

85.2

85.3

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.7

74.0

73.8

73.8

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

97.1

97.5

97.6

97.4

5-0

8-1

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.3

97.1

96.4

4-1

6-3

U A B

87.7

89.5

88.1

88.5

3-2

6-3

North Texas

87.8

87.4

88.1

87.8

3-3

4-6

Rice

79.7

80.6

78.9

79.8

0-5

0-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.7

75.6

76.3

3-2

4-5

U T E P

68.8

72.7

69.4

70.3

0-6

1-8

CUSA Averages

86.4

87.0

86.8

86.7

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.3

116.8

118.1

117.7

x

7-2

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.6

102.7

x

5-4

Army

94.9

95.1

94.4

94.8

x

4-6

Liberty

90.1

91.2

90.4

90.5

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.7

77.5

75.5

76.2

x

0-9

Massachusetts

56.3

57.9

54.8

56.3

x

1-9

Indep. Averages

89.6

90.2

89.3

89.7

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

93.1

93.8

94.6

93.8

3-2

5-4

Ohio

93.3

92.3

93.6

93.1

3-2

4-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.9

90.7

89.9

4-1

5-4

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

2-3

3-6

Bowling Green

74.3

74.1

74.3

74.3

2-3

3-6

Akron

67.1

66.9

65.8

66.6

0-5

0-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.4

97.4

98.1

98.0

4-2

6-4

Ball St.

90.6

90.2

90.8

90.5

3-2

4-5

Northern Illinois

89.7

88.9

89.8

89.5

2-3

3-6

Central Michigan

88.4

89.0

89.3

88.9

4-2

6-4

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

3-2

6-3

Eastern Michigan

84.4

84.5

84.7

84.6

1-4

4-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

5-0

8-1

Air Force

104.0

105.3

104.8

104.7

4-1

7-2

Wyoming

99.3

101.4

100.0

100.2

3-2

6-3

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

4-1

5-4

Colorado St.

87.4

91.0

88.0

88.8

3-2

4-5

New Mexico

80.1

82.5

78.8

80.5

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

96.6

98.2

96.2

97.0

4-2

7-2

Fresno St.

94.9

95.9

95.3

95.4

2-3

4-5

Hawaii

94.9

96.2

93.8

95.0

3-3

6-4

San Jose St.

88.0

89.9

88.2

88.7

1-5

4-6

Nevada

87.8

89.4

87.3

88.2

3-3

6-4

U N L V

83.4

85.0

83.0

83.8

1-5

2-7

MWC Averages

93.4

94.9

93.4

93.9

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

6-0

8-1

Washington

113.8

113.5

114.8

114.0

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

110.6

109.7

110.9

110.4

1-5

4-5

California

104.6

104.3

105.3

104.7

2-4

5-4

Stanford

103.3

102.5

102.8

102.9

3-4

4-5

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

3-3

4-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

124.0

122.9

124.8

123.9

5-1

8-1

U S C

108.2

108.7

108.7

108.6

5-2

6-4

Arizona St.

106.6

105.9

106.9

106.5

2-4

5-4

U C L A

102.0

101.9

101.8

101.9

4-2

4-5

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-4

4-5

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.1

125.3

127.3

126.6

5-1

8-1

Florida

125.3

122.6

124.9

124.2

6-2

8-2

Missouri

110.9

108.4

110.2

109.8

2-3

5-4

South Carolina

110.6

108.9

109.8

109.8

3-4

4-6

Tennessee

109.9

109.7

109.2

109.6

3-3

5-5

Kentucky

108.3

106.9

107.0

107.4

2-5

4-5

Vanderbilt

94.5

93.0

93.1

93.5

1-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

134.3

131.1

134.8

133.4

5-1

8-1

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

5-0

9-0

Auburn

122.8

121.1

122.6

122.2

4-2

7-2

Texas A&M

116.5

114.9

115.4

115.6

3-2

6-3

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.8

115.0

111.3

2-4

4-5

Ole Miss

106.8

106.1

106.9

106.6

2-4

4-6

Arkansas

87.1

87.0

86.3

86.8

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

114.1

112.3

113.9

113.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

4-1

8-1

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

3-2

5-4

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

3-2

6-3

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

2-3

4-5

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

1-4

4-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

4-1

7-2

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

3-2

5-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

3-2

4-5

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

2-3

3-6

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

0-5

1-8

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.0

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Air Force]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Memphis

Georgia Southern

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Wyoming

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Western Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Buffalo

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

[Toledo]

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Western Kentucky

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Central Florida

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[UAB]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Virginia

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

[San Jose St.]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Baylor

Boise St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Marshall

[Eastern Michigan]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Liberty]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Georgia

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Missouri *

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Kentucky

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Appalachian St.

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Alabama

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Charlotte]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Ball St.

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

[Nevada]

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Arkansas St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

LSU

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oregon

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Clemson

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

* Missouri is on probation and technically not eligible for a bowl, but the Tigers have filed an appeal that has yet to be judged by the NCAA Infractions Committee.  If they do not issue a decision before December, then Missouri can accept a bowl bid even though they have a bowl ban in place.

 

Questions and Answers

 

Every year, we receive numerous questions from you the reader.  When we get enough, we try to answer them in one post.  The number one question we receive from people that know us is: “How do you ask a question on your site?”

So we can reduce Spam and not give a link, this is how you do it.  Go to our sister site that you can see to the side on our Blogroll under “The PiRate Ratings, ” which is the 6th one down the page.  This will take you to our sister website.  Once at this other website, click on the Contact Us link, and you can ask your question after you fill out your information.

Here are the questions we have received since the start of football season.  Some of these have been asked every year for the last five or six seasons.

 

Q1. What does PiRate, Mean, and Bias mean in your ratings?

A1. We have one basic power rating that we compile based on game statistics and strength of schedule.  We have three ways of calculating this data.  The PiRate Rating is our old formula that we have used for many years with little change in calculation.  We can also estimate FCS team power ratings with this formula.  The Mean formula takes all the data and weighs each item identically.  There are seven basic grade scores that are then divided by seven to get this rating.  The Bias formula does apply weighted grades to the parts of the game that we believe are more important than others, thus the grading is biased in favor of four of the seven grading scores.

Q2. What is your home field advantage for football?

A2. The PiRate Ratings use differing home field advantages for every game.  If Miami of Florida is hosting Florida International, the home field advantage is going to be much different than if they were to host Hawaii, Buffalo, or Washington.  Some of the time, a road team might actually receive some advantage over the home team.  Let’s say a 2-7 team with little fan support is hosting a team from an adjacent state in a conference game, when the other team is trying to get bowl eligible, and there are fans of this other team just 45 minutes away from the visiting team’s stadium.  Let’s say that about 75% of the fans at the game will be fans of the visiting team, and the home team will have to use visual signals to snap the ball.  It happens.

Q3. How come you have a 5-2 team rated ahead of a 7-0 team in the same conference, and the 5-2 team lost to the 7-0 team in September?

A3. The PiRate Ratings aren’t about what happened three, four, five, or six weeks ago.  The goal of these ratings is to try to predict the outcomes of this week’s games.  For instance, you might notice that Alabama is still rated ahead of LSU in our ratings.  We believe if the two teams were to play again this week on a neutral field, Alabama would win the game.  It might be a lot easier to see this like baseball.  The Padres might beat the Dodgers on Thursday and Friday, but the Dodgers will still be favored to beat them on Saturday and Sunday.  These ratings are meant to be used to predict the future and not rate the past. 

Q4. Why do you like Ohio State so much and always move them up to number one every year?

A4. These are mechanical power ratings.  We could teach somebody else how to calculate the ratings with maybe 3 to 4 hours of teaching.  There is no real human factor where we can say that Ohio State is our favorite team, so let’s make them number one.  Ohio State is number one because the statistical numbers make them number one.  We like Ohio State no more or less than Illinois or Michigan or Rice or San Jose St.  What we love is to be accurate.  Thus, the real thing we root to be number one is our ratings.

Q5. What does your power rating number mean for each team?

A5. Our ratings are calculated so that the average FBS team is rated 100.00.  If a team has a power rating of 106.8, this means they are 6.8 points better than the average FBS team.  If they have a rating of 87.4, this means they are 12.6 points weaker than the average team.

Q6.  Why do you only issue one spread for FBS vs. FCS games?

A6. The Mean and Bias ratings require more statistical analysis using a lot more data than the regular PiRate Rating.  We cannot calculate these ratings for FCS teams.  The regular PiRate Rating consists of data calculation that takes about 3 minutes per FCS team.  And, the PiRate Rating for FCS teams is only an approximation rating.  We do not use the same adjustment to  the ratings of FBS teams that play FCS teams. 

Q7. I noticed that Nebraska did not play this weekend, yet your rating for Nebraska went up a little.  Why is this?

A7. There are two factors at play here.  Nebraska’s opponents played to date did play this past weekend, and their ratings adjusted, which adjusted Nebraska’s rating.  Also, the week off usually helps teams.  Thus, Nebraska’s three ratings rose by about 0.6 points each.

Q8. How do you calculate your Bowl and Playoff Projections?  It does not look like you use the “if the season ended today” method.

A8. We do not use the “if the season ended today” method.  We estimate each team’s final won-loss record and then try to do the bowl committees’ work by extending invitations to the bowl teams based on the criteria set in advance.  When all of our competitors agreed 100% that Penn State was their choice for the Rose Bowl, we had Minnesota projected there.  Expect a bunch more sites to now place Minnesota in the Rose Bowl in their projections.

For what it’s worth, in this week’s projections, we only had 79 bowl eligible teams, which means just one bowl eligible team would be excluded in our mind.  Because Missouri could easily lose their appeal before December, then team #79 could become #78.  That team this week is Ohio.

Q9. What do you think about the 4-team Playoff?

A9. While we believe that in most years only four teams might be championship quality, we don’t believe that Power 5 conference champions should be left out.  At the minimum, the NCAA Playoffs should be a 6-team tournament with all Power 5 conference champions making the playoffs along with the top remaining team.  We support the 8-team or even 12-team playoff.  In a perfect world, we would support a 12- team playoff with the reduction of bowls to 30.  The opening round from 12 to 8 with the top 4 getting byes would be played on the better seeded teams’ home field.  The Quarterfinal Round would then be held at four existing bowls, one in each region.  For instance, the Pinstripe, Music City, Alamo, and Holiday Bowls could host this round.

Q10. Who is the best team of all time?

A10. We can only offer our choice from teams that we have seen in our lifetime, and then only offer up who we believe was the most dominant team in the year they played.  Our answer is the 1971 Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They beat teams that finished second, third, and fourth by a combined 105-44, including destroying 11-0 Alabama in the Orange Bowl 38-6.  They also beat 8-win Utah State and Iowa State and 7-win Hawaii by a combined 124-9.  This team had 8 All-Americans and 19 players that made the All Big 8 teams.  22 players on this team were taken in an NFL Draft after their senior years, including multiple reserves.

Q11. If computers are so incredible, why can’t any beat the spread more than 60% of the time?

A11. That is probably the best question we receive.  Computers may or may not be able to beat the spread 60% of the time, but when they do, none of us ever discover this, because it is never made available to the public.

At the Prediction Tracker, where the PiRate Ratings have finished number one against the spread and in picking winners multiple times, in a typical year, the top computer program beats the spread about 56% of the time.  The top geniuses in Las Vegas, the ones that are severely restricted in how much they can wager at each book (and frequently hire others to pretend to be innocent bettors with a system to place their bets for them), beat the spread 60-65% of the time.  

Before you say that the computers aren’t up to snuff when compared to the Vegas brains, you must understand something.  These brainy geniuses don’t pick every game on the board.  At the Prediction Tracker, we pick every game against the spread.  Some of the multi-millionaires winning in Vegas cannot pick every game and beat 56%.  On a typical week, the top bettors might pick as few as three games and seldom more than nine.  They tend to go with an odd number of games to avoid a .500 outcome which guarantees a loss.  Picking three games and going 2-1 or picking 9 games and going 6-3 on a semi-consistent basis will cause the books to restrict or prohibit these smarts from wagering.

Q12. Why do you withhold basketball ratings until after New Year’s Day?

A12. This isn’t a football question, but six of you have asked this of us.  Our college basketball ratings are based on weighted four factors statistics and strength of schedule.  Until teams have played about 10 games, the statistics don’t mean enough to be viable.  The variance in these stats is much too wide until every team has had 10 games to reduce it.  For instance, if we issued ratings today, Utah would be 10 points ahead of Kentucky as the best team.  When you win by 94 points over a team rated in the bottom 5, it is like beating Michigan State by 10.  Therefore, the ratings need a lot more games to be played before they are worth anything.  Starting in January is the perfect fit, since we have minimal football games remaining.

 

 

 

November 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:46 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

Kent St.

2.8

3.2

3.2

Western Michigan

Ball St.

10.9

10.5

10.8

 

 

Wednesday

November 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio U

Miami (O)

7.4

7.8

7.5

 

 

Thursday

November 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Coastal Carolina

Louisiana

-11.7

-10.7

-12.1

South Florida

Temple

-3.9

-1.8

-4.3

 

 

Friday

November 8

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon St.

Washington

-11.6

-10.2

-12.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

-18.6

-17.1

-18.3

 

 

Saturday

November 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

LSU

9.2

8.4

9.9

Arizona St.

USC

2.9

1.8

3.1

Arkansas

Western Kentucky

5.8

5.1

3.9

Army

Massachusetts

38.5

36.9

39.1

Boise St.

Wyoming

9.9

7.7

9.6

Boston College

Florida St.

2.6

2.4

3.0

BYU

Liberty

17.2

15.9

17.4

California

Washington St.

-7.1

-6.7

-7.3

Cincinnati

Connecticut

38.8

34.5

40.2

Colorado

Stanford

-5.5

-5.1

-5.6

Duke

Notre Dame

-7.7

-6.5

-7.3

Florida

Vanderbilt

28.5

26.9

29.3

Florida Atlantic

Florida Int’l.

9.4

9.5

10.9

Fresno St.

Utah St.

-1.0

0.9

-1.2

Georgia

Missouri

18.1

18.6

18.6

Hawaii

San Jose St.

12.0

11.5

11.1

Kentucky

Tennessee

2.2

1.0

2.0

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

6.4

7.1

6.2

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

10.7

10.4

11.8

Michigan St.

Illinois

14.0

12.1

13.9

Minnesota

Penn St.

-3.9

-3.1

-4.5

New Mexico

Air Force

-21.4

-20.3

-23.4

North Carolina St.

Clemson

-35.7

-33.8

-36.9

Northwestern

Purdue

1.5

0.5

0.7

Ohio St.

Maryland

42.4

42.6

44.9

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

11.8

10.3

11.2

Old Dominion

UTSA

0.7

-1.1

0.9

Ole Miss

New Mexico St.

33.0

30.0

32.9

San Diego St.

Nevada

14.7

14.9

15.2

SMU

East Carolina

26.3

24.6

27.0

South Carolina

Appalachian St.

8.1

7.4

8.1

Southern Miss.

UAB

7.0

4.0

6.5

TCU

Baylor

-4.1

-1.7

-3.2

Texas

Kansas St.

0.7

1.0

0.6

Texas St.

South Alabama

9.8

7.8

9.8

Troy

Georgia Southern

-2.9

-2.1

-3.5

UL-Monroe

Georgia St.

-4.1

-5.0

-4.3

UTEP

Charlotte

-15.1

-11.5

-14.9

Virginia

Georgia Tech

15.8

17.6

15.9

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

-1.5

-1.0

-1.5

West Virginia

Texas Tech

1.2

0.7

1.6

Wisconsin

Iowa

4.3

5.7

4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

2

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

3

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

5

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

6

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

9

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

10

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

11

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

12

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

15

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

16

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

17

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

18

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

21

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

22

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

23

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

24

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

25

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

26

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

27

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

28

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

29

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

32

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

33

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

34

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

35

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

36

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

37

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

38

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

39

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

40

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

41

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

42

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

43

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

44

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

45

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

46

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

47

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

48

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

49

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

50

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

51

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

52

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

53

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

54

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

55

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

56

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

57

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

58

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

59

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

60

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

61

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

62

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

63

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

66

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

67

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

68

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

69

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

70

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

71

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

72

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

73

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

74

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

75

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

76

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

77

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

80

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

81

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

82

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

83

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

85

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

86

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

87

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

88

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

89

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

90

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

91

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

92

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

93

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

97

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

98

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

99

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

101

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

102

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

103

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

104

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

105

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

106

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

107

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

108

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

109

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

110

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

111

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

112

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

113

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

114

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

115

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

116

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

117

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

118

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

121

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

122

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

126

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

128

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

129

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

130

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

4-1

7-2

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

4-0

7-1

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

0-5

3-6

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

4-1

8-1

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

4-1

8-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

3-2

6-3

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

0-5

2-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

6-0

9-0

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

3-1

7-1

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

3-4

4-5

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

3-3

5-4

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

3-2

5-3

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

1-3

4-4

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

4-2

6-3

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

3-3

5-4

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

3-3

4-5

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

3-2

5-3

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

1-4

2-6

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

3-2

5-3

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

5-0

8-0

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

3-2

6-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

3-3

6-3

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

2-3

4-4

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

1-4

3-5

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

5-0

8-0

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

2-3

4-4

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

4-2

7-2

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

1-5

3-6

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

3-2

6-2

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

5-0

8-0

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

2-4