The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 11, 2017

Final 2016-17 College Football Ratings

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 7:07 am

Congratulations to the Clemson Tigers.  Raspberries to the NCAA.

Sadly, the viewing numbers for the National Championship game were quite low.  Aside from not being available on free TV, the college game greatly needs changes to shorten its duration.

The National Championship Game took more than four hours to play (someone on local radio mentioned it took about an hour to play the last six minutes of the game!  The game finished past Midnight on the East Coast on a weeknight.  Many fans that hoped to see the entire game fell asleep before the conclusion, and Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh admitted he was one of those that could not stay awake.

The college game needs massive change and quickly.  It is in danger of suffering from some of the same issues that have caused Major League Baseball to lose viewers.

Our recommendations for the college game include implementing many of the NFL rules:

1. No stoppage of the clock after first downs–implement a 2-minute warning for both halves.  The clock did not always stop after first downs in the college game.  That rule came in about 60 years ago.  At the time, college games lasted around 2 hours and 20 minutes in duration with about 110 plays from scrimmage.

2. Each team should receive 3 replay challenge flags per game for review.  Only the teams should instigate the reviewing of a play, except for scoring plays and plays involving a change of possession.

3. Halftime should be reduced to 12 minutes in duration

 

Other Rules Changes we advocate.

1. Pass interference returning to the same penalty as it is in the NFL.  Giving up 15 yards and a first down should never be a defensive option to use strategically.  Teams take advantage of this rule, especially late in the game, when a 15-yard advancement of the ball is disadvantageous.  This rule was changed in the 1980’s.

 

2. A player in possession of the ball should not down until he is touched.  A slippery surface should never be allowed to make a tackle for the defense.  A great catch by a receiver should not be the end of the play if no defensive player is there to stop him.

 

3. Overtimes should be changed to the current NFL OT rule, and ties should be allowed after 15 minutes.  If a playoff game ends in a regulation tie, regular sudden death overtime instead of the ridiculous 25-yard line overtime should be used.

 

The college game would be best served if the national average for scrimmage plays per game was about 120 and games did not exceed 3 hours in length.

We now step off our soapbox.  Here are our final ratings for the season.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Clemson 137.4 131.9 136.9 135.4
2 Alabama 134.5 128.2 134.6 132.4
3 Washington 132.2 125.1 131.5 129.6
4 Michigan 127.0 125.1 126.7 126.3
5 Oklahoma 126.5 124.4 126.5 125.8
6 LSU 126.6 121.9 126.3 124.9
7 Ohio St. 124.6 123.7 124.6 124.3
8 USC 124.2 119.4 122.7 122.1
9 Florida St. 123.2 117.5 122.6 121.1
10 Oklahoma St. 120.1 120.5 119.5 120.0
11 Penn St. 120.0 119.7 120.1 119.9
12 Louisville 120.2 116.9 119.8 119.0
13 Auburn 119.2 117.4 119.0 118.5
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 117.7 118.9 118.5
15 Wisconsin 118.8 116.9 119.3 118.3
16 Miami 119.1 114.1 119.1 117.4
17 Florida 115.5 115.7 114.3 115.2
18 Pittsburgh 116.0 112.1 115.2 114.4
19 North Carolina 115.9 110.6 115.4 114.0
20 Western Michigan 113.1 112.8 114.7 113.5
21 Stanford 115.2 109.6 115.0 113.3
22 Kansas St. 112.7 113.9 112.9 113.2
23 Tennessee 113.6 111.2 112.7 112.5
24 Washington St. 113.5 110.9 112.9 112.5
25 Colorado 113.6 110.1 113.5 112.4
26 Western Kentucky 112.4 110.4 113.8 112.2
27 Iowa 112.8 110.3 112.4 111.8
28 Texas A&M 112.1 111.2 111.2 111.5
29 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
30 West Virginia 111.2 110.5 110.7 110.8
31 Utah 112.5 107.8 111.1 110.5
32 Temple 109.9 109.1 110.6 109.9
33 North Carolina St. 111.1 107.3 111.0 109.8
34 Georgia Tech 110.9 107.2 110.1 109.4
35 Northwestern 110.6 107.1 109.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.5 107.8 110.1 109.1
37 Arkansas 110.8 106.3 110.0 109.1
38 Tulsa 108.0 109.2 108.5 108.6
39 BYU 109.8 106.1 109.7 108.5
40 Georgia 108.7 108.2 108.1 108.3
41 Minnesota 108.8 107.1 108.6 108.2
42 San Diego St. 107.0 105.6 109.0 107.2
43 TCU 107.0 108.6 105.9 107.2
44 Houston 106.8 105.8 107.7 106.8
45 Mississippi St. 107.7 105.8 106.5 106.7
46 Baylor 105.8 106.1 105.9 105.9
47 Nebraska 106.2 104.0 105.8 105.3
48 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
49 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
50 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
51 Navy 104.0 103.8 103.9 103.9
52 Indiana 103.7 104.6 103.2 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 105.2 102.2 103.9 103.8
54 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
55 Memphis 104.4 102.3 103.8 103.5
56 Kentucky 103.4 103.4 103.0 103.3
57 Boise St. 102.5 103.8 103.1 103.1
58 Toledo 102.2 102.9 103.1 102.7
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Wake Forest 102.8 101.0 103.0 102.3
61 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
62 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
63 Appalachian St. 100.0 101.2 101.6 100.9
64 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Louisiana Tech 97.7 99.7 99.5 99.0
68 Air Force 98.2 100.0 98.6 98.9
69 Boston College 99.6 98.1 99.0 98.9
70 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
71 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
72 South Carolina 98.8 98.3 98.3 98.5
73 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
74 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
75 Arkansas St. 95.8 98.2 97.7 97.2
76 Colorado St. 95.7 97.8 96.7 96.7
77 New Mexico 94.9 96.8 95.7 95.8
78 Maryland 95.7 97.6 94.1 95.8
79 Central Florida 95.0 96.3 95.5 95.6
80 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
81 Wyoming 94.4 94.5 95.5 94.8
82 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
83 Army 91.3 96.8 92.6 93.6
84 Troy 91.3 95.2 93.2 93.2
85 Ohio 91.1 96.7 91.6 93.2
86 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
87 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
88 Miami (O) 90.9 92.6 92.3 91.9
89 Old Dominion 89.6 92.5 90.8 91.0
90 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
91 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
92 UTSA 87.5 93.0 89.9 90.2
93 Idaho 87.7 92.0 90.0 89.9
94 Central Michigan 89.0 91.1 89.4 89.8
95 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.6 89.0 89.1 88.9
98 Eastern Michigan 87.4 89.5 88.1 88.3
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
102 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
103 Middle Tennessee 86.3 88.1 86.6 87.0
104 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
105 UL-Lafayette 84.6 88.2 86.0 86.3
106 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
107 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
111 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
112 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
113 South Alabama 81.2 87.2 81.7 83.4
114 Hawaii 83.1 83.0 83.1 83.1
115 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
116 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
117 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
118 Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 North Texas 77.5 80.5 77.9 78.7
121 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
127 UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
128 Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 109.9 109.1 110.6 109.9
South Florida 109.5 107.8 110.1 109.1
Central Florida 95.0 96.3 95.5 95.6
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tulsa 108.0 109.2 108.5 108.6
Houston 106.8 105.8 107.7 106.8
Navy 104.0 103.8 103.9 103.9
Memphis 104.4 102.3 103.8 103.5
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 98.4 98.5 98.7 98.6
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 137.4 131.9 136.9 135.4
Florida St. 123.2 117.5 122.6 121.1
Louisville 120.2 116.9 119.8 119.0
North Carolina St. 111.1 107.3 111.0 109.8
Wake Forest 102.8 101.0 103.0 102.3
Boston College 99.6 98.1 99.0 98.9
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.9 117.7 118.9 118.5
Miami 119.1 114.1 119.1 117.4
Pittsburgh 116.0 112.1 115.2 114.4
North Carolina 115.9 110.6 115.4 114.0
Georgia Tech 110.9 107.2 110.1 109.4
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 112.5 109.2 112.0 111.2
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 126.5 124.4 126.5 125.8
Oklahoma St. 120.1 120.5 119.5 120.0
Kansas St. 112.7 113.9 112.9 113.2
West Virginia 111.2 110.5 110.7 110.8
TCU 107.0 108.6 105.9 107.2
Baylor 105.8 106.1 105.9 105.9
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.7 108.3 107.0 107.7
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 127.0 125.1 126.7 126.3
Ohio St. 124.6 123.7 124.6 124.3
Penn St. 120.0 119.7 120.1 119.9
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.7 104.6 103.2 103.8
Maryland 95.7 97.6 94.1 95.8
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 118.8 116.9 119.3 118.3
Iowa 112.8 110.3 112.4 111.8
Northwestern 110.6 107.1 109.7 109.1
Minnesota 108.8 107.1 108.6 108.2
Nebraska 106.2 104.0 105.8 105.3
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.4 106.1 106.7 106.7
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 112.4 110.4 113.8 112.2
Old Dominion 89.6 92.5 90.8 91.0
Middle Tennessee 86.3 88.1 86.6 87.0
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 97.7 99.7 99.5 99.0
UTSA 87.5 93.0 89.9 90.2
Southern Mississippi 88.6 89.0 89.1 88.9
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.5 80.5 77.9 78.7
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.8 88.0 85.8 86.2
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 109.8 106.1 109.7 108.5
Army 91.3 96.8 92.6 93.6
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Independents Averages 98.3 99.4 98.6 98.7
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.1 96.7 91.6 93.2
Miami (O) 90.9 92.6 92.3 91.9
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.1 112.8 114.7 113.5
Toledo 102.2 102.9 103.1 102.7
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 89.0 91.1 89.4 89.8
Eastern Michigan 87.4 89.5 88.1 88.3
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.1 92.5 90.9 91.2
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 102.5 103.8 103.1 103.1
Air Force 98.2 100.0 98.6 98.9
Colorado St. 95.7 97.8 96.7 96.7
New Mexico 94.9 96.8 95.7 95.8
Wyoming 94.4 94.5 95.5 94.8
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 107.0 105.6 109.0 107.2
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 83.1 83.0 83.1 83.1
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.4 92.8 91.9 92.0
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 132.2 125.1 131.5 129.6
Stanford 115.2 109.6 115.0 113.3
Washington St. 113.5 110.9 112.9 112.5
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.2 119.4 122.7 122.1
Colorado 113.6 110.1 113.5 112.4
Utah 112.5 107.8 111.1 110.5
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 109.9 106.0 108.8 108.2
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 115.5 115.7 114.3 115.2
Tennessee 113.6 111.2 112.7 112.5
Georgia 108.7 108.2 108.1 108.3
Vanderbilt 105.2 102.2 103.9 103.8
Kentucky 103.4 103.4 103.0 103.3
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.8 98.3 98.3 98.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 134.5 128.2 134.6 132.4
LSU 126.6 121.9 126.3 124.9
Auburn 119.2 117.4 119.0 118.5
Texas A&M 112.1 111.2 111.2 111.5
Arkansas 110.8 106.3 110.0 109.1
Mississippi St. 107.7 105.8 106.5 106.7
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.5 109.3 110.8 110.5
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 100.0 101.2 101.6 100.9
Arkansas St. 95.8 98.2 97.7 97.2
Troy 91.3 95.2 93.2 93.2
Idaho 87.7 92.0 90.0 89.9
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
UL-Lafayette 84.6 88.2 86.0 86.3
South Alabama 81.2 87.2 81.7 83.4
Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.7 86.1 84.2 84.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC Averages 112.5 109.2 112.0 111.2
2 SEC Averages 111.5 109.3 110.8 110.5
3 Pac-12 Averages 109.9 106.0 108.8 108.2
4 Big 12 Averages 107.7 108.3 107.0 107.7
5 Big Ten Averages 107.4 106.1 106.7 106.7
6 Indep. Averages 98.3 99.4 98.6 98.7
7 AAC Averages 98.4 98.5 98.7 98.6
8 MWC Averages 91.4 92.8 91.9 92.0
9 MAC Averages 90.1 92.5 90.9 91.2
10 CUSA Averages 84.8 88.0 85.8 86.2
11 Sun Belt Averages 82.7 86.1 84.2 84.3

Note–This breaks a long streak where the SEC finished as the highest-rated conference.  The ACC surpassed the SEC thanks to an incredible bowl season that included Clemson beating Alabama, Georgia Tech beating Kentucky, Virginia Tech beating Arkansas, and North Carolina State beating Vanderbilt.

Retrodictive Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Ohio St.
4 Washington
5 Oklahoma
6 Michigan
7 Florida St.
8 USC
9 Wisconsin
10 Penn St.
11 LSU
12 Stanford
13 Western Michigan
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Florida
16 Virginia Tech
17 Colorado
18 Miami (Fla)
19 Louisville
20 Auburn
21 Tennessee
22 West Virginia
23 Western Kentucky
24 Kansas St.
25 South Florida
26 Pittsburgh
27 Utah
28 Georgia Tech
29 Washington St.
30 Tulsa
31 Minnesota
32 Texas A&M
33 Iowa
34 Nebraska
35 North Carolina
36 Appalachian St.
37 San Diego St.
38 BYU
39 Boise St.
40 Temple
41 Houston
42 Georgia
43 Northwestern
44 Troy
45 Air Force
46 North Carolina St.
47 Toledo
48 Arkansas
49 Navy
50 Memphis
51 Baylor
52 Kentucky
53 Old Dominion
54 Vanderbilt
55 Ole Miss
56 Mississippi St.
57 TCU
58 New Mexico
59 California
60 Louisiana Tech
61 Wake Forest
62 Colorado St.
63 Wyoming
64 Idaho
65 Boston College
66 Indiana
67 Notre Dame
68 Arkansas St.
69 Texas
70 UCLA
71 Central Florida
72 South Carolina
73 Oregon
74 Arizona St.
75 Maryland
76 Oregon St.
77 Army
78 Ohio
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Texas Tech
81 Missouri
82 Syracuse
83 Middle Tennessee
84 Southern Miss.
85 Duke
86 Michigan St.
87 SMU
88 Northern Illinois
89 Iowa St.
90 UTSA
91 Hawaii
92 UL-Lafayette
93 Central Michigan
94 Georgia Southern
95 Arizona
96 Miami (O)
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Virginia
104 Purdue
105 Bowling Green
106 San Jose St.
107 Nevada
108 North Texas
109 East Carolina
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 Rutgers
113 UL-Monroe
114 Kent St.
115 Kansas
116 Georgia St.
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Fresno St.
127 Texas St.
128 Buffalo

 

January 5, 2017

Ratings & Spreads For 2017 National Championship Game

Just the Facts, Please

NCAA FBS National Championship Game

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0) vs. #2 Clemson Tigers (13-1) 

Date: Monday, January 9, 2017

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

TV: ESPN

Online: WatchESPN app

Site: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Radio: ESPN Radio and ESPNRadio.com

To find your local radio affiliate: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/affiliate

 

Handicapper’s Corner

Las Vegas Spread: Alabama by 6 1/2

Las Vegas Totals: 51

 

PiRate Rating: Alabama by 7.1

Mean Rating: Alabama by 6.3

Bias Rating: Alabama by 7.7

Note: The firing of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and replacing him with Steve Sarkisian has bot been factored into our three ratings.  

100 Simulations

Alabama Wins: 73

Clemson Wins: 27

Average Score: Alabama 31  Clemson 22

Outlier A: Alabama 38  Clemson 7

Outlier B: Clemson 34  Alabama 26

December 11, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For Bowl Season 2016-2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:25 am

The 2016 regular season is now in the books, and the PiRates have been busy the last 16 hours readying our bowl season ratings and predictions.

Here are the Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings, starting with the Predictive PiRate, Mean, and Bias.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 132.5 138.7 136.6
2 Washington 133.0 125.8 132.4 130.4
3 Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
4 Clemson 129.5 123.5 128.7 127.2
5 Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
6 Oklahoma 125.2 123.3 125.1 124.5
7 LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
8 USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
9 Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
10 Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
11 Penn St. 119.9 119.7 120.0 119.9
12 Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
13 Wisconsin 118.7 116.7 119.1 118.2
14 Virginia Tech 118.7 116.9 118.8 118.1
15 Oklahoma St. 116.6 117.9 116.0 116.8
16 Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
17 Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
18 Colorado 117.1 112.7 117.0 115.6
19 Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
20 North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
21 Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
22 Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
23 Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
24 Kansas St. 111.9 113.7 111.9 112.5
25 Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
26 Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
27 Florida 112.4 112.9 110.9 112.1
28 West Virginia 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6
29 Temple 111.5 110.6 112.3 111.5
30 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
31 Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
32 Western Kentucky 110.7 108.8 112.1 110.5
33 Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
34 South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
35 Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
36 BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
37 Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
38 Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
39 Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
40 TCU 107.4 109.1 106.4 107.6
41 North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
42 Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
43 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
44 Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
45 Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
46 Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
47 Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
48 Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
49 Navy 105.2 104.8 105.2 105.1
50 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
51 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
52 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
53 Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
54 San Diego St. 103.8 102.6 105.6 104.0
55 Baylor 103.8 104.2 103.8 103.9
56 Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
57 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
58 Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
61 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
62 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
63 Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
64 Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
68 Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
69 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
70 Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
71 Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
72 Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
73 South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
74 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
75 Louisiana Tech 96.5 98.7 98.2 97.8
76 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
77 New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
78 Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
79 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
80 Arkansas St. 93.1 95.8 94.8 94.6
81 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
82 Wyoming 93.5 94.1 94.5 94.0
83 Army 91.6 97.1 92.9 93.9
84 Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
85 Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
86 Troy 91.0 94.8 92.8 92.9
87 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
88 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
89 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
90 Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
91 Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
92 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
93 UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
94 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
95 Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
98 Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Idaho 85.6 90.4 87.8 87.9
102 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
103 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
104 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
105 UL-Lafayette 84.8 88.6 86.4 86.6
106 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
107 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 South Alabama 81.8 88.0 82.5 84.1
111 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
112 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
113 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
114 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
115 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
116 Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
117 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
118 Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
121 North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
127 UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
128 Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5

Here are our Retrodictive Rankings.  See our explanation of these rankings at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/12/07/our-unique-way-of-compiling-our-college-retrodictive-ratings/

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Washington
6 Penn St.
7 Wisconsin
8 USC
9 Oklahoma
10 Florida St.
11 Western Michigan
12 Colorado
13 Stanford
14 LSU
15 Louisville
16 Auburn
17 West Virginia
18 Oklahoma St.
19 Washington St.
20 South Florida
21 Iowa
22 Boise St.
23 Florida
24 Houston
25 Temple
26 Virginia Tech
27 Pittsburgh
28 Nebraska
29 Miami (Fla)
30 Tennessee
31 Texas A&M
32 Utah
33 Western Kentucky
34 North Carolina
35 Tulsa
36 Minnesota
37 BYU
38 Kansas St.
39 Georgia Tech
40 Navy
41 Appalachian St.
42 Toledo
43 San Diego St.
44 Memphis
45 Georgia
46 Arkansas
47 Northwestern
48 Air Force
49 Kentucky
50 Colorado St.
51 Troy
52 Vanderbilt
53 North Carolina St.
54 Indiana
55 Ole Miss
56 TCU
57 Old Dominion
58 Wyoming
59 California
60 New Mexico
61 Mississippi St.
62 Central Florida
63 Louisiana Tech
64 Maryland
65 UCLA
66 South Carolina
67 Baylor
68 Oregon
69 Notre Dame
70 Idaho
71 Boston College
72 Texas
73 Arkansas St.
74 Wake Forest
75 Ohio
76 Arizona St.
77 Oregon St.
78 Eastern Michigan
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas Tech
81 Army
82 SMU
83 Missouri
84 Duke
85 Michigan St.
86 Syracuse
87 Central Michigan
88 UTSA
89 UL-Lafayette
90 Miami (O)
91 Northern Illinois
92 Iowa St.
93 Arizona
94 Southern Miss.
95 Georgia Southern
96 Hawaii
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Bowling Green
104 Purdue
105 East Carolina
106 Virginia
107 San Jose St.
108 Nevada
109 North Texas
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 Rutgers
113 UL-Monroe
114 Kent St.
115 Kansas
116 Georgia St.
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Fresno St.
127 Texas St.
128 Buffalo

Here are the ratings by FBS Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 111.5 110.6 112.3 111.5
South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
Navy 105.2 104.8 105.2 105.1
Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 129.5 123.5 128.7 127.2
Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.7 116.9 118.8 118.1
Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 125.2 123.3 125.1 124.5
Oklahoma St. 116.6 117.9 116.0 116.8
Kansas St. 111.9 113.7 111.9 112.5
West Virginia 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6
TCU 107.4 109.1 106.4 107.6
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Baylor 103.8 104.2 103.8 103.9
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
Penn St. 119.9 119.7 120.0 119.9
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 118.7 116.7 119.1 118.2
Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 110.7 108.8 112.1 110.5
Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.5 98.7 98.2 97.8
UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
Army 91.6 97.1 92.9 93.9
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Independents Averages 98.6 99.5 98.9 99.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
Wyoming 93.5 94.1 94.5 94.0
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 103.8 102.6 105.6 104.0
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 133.0 125.8 132.4 130.4
Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
Colorado 117.1 112.7 117.0 115.6
Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
Florida 112.4 112.9 110.9 112.1
Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 138.7 132.5 138.7 136.6
LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
Arkansas St. 93.1 95.8 94.8 94.6
Troy 91.0 94.8 92.8 92.9
Idaho 85.6 90.4 87.8 87.9
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
UL-Lafayette 84.8 88.6 86.4 86.6
South Alabama 81.8 88.0 82.5 84.1
Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.3 85.8 83.8 84.0

 

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
2 ACC 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big 12 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
6 AAC 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.2
7 Independents 98.6 99.5 98.9 99.0
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
11 Sun Belt 82.3 85.8 83.8 84.0

 

The 2016-2017 College Bowls

All times Eastern Standard
Team Team PiRate Mean Bias Network
Sat Dec-17 New Mexico 2:00 PM ESPN
New Mexico UTSA 11.0 7.0 9.4    
Sat Dec-17 Las Vegas 3:30 PM ABC
San Diego St. Houston -6.2 -6.2 -5.5    
Sat Dec-17 Cure 5:30 PM CBSSN
Central Florida Arkansas St. 6.6 4.9 5.6    
Sat Dec-17 Camellia 5:30 PM ESPN
Toledo Appalachian St. 2.8 2.3 2.1    
Sat Dec-17 New Orleans 9:00 PM ESPN
Southern Miss. UL-Lafayette 2.6 -1.0 1.3    
Mon Dec-19 Miami Beach 2:30 PM ESPN
Tulsa Central Mich. 12.0 11.1 12.1    
Tue Dec-20 Boca Raton 7:00 PM ESPN
Memphis Western Ky. -4.6 -4.9 -6.6    
Wed Dec-21 Poinsettia 9:00 PM ESPN
BYU Wyoming 17.2 12.4 16.2    
Thu Dec-22 Idaho Potato 7:00 PM ESPN
Colorado St. Idaho 9.7 6.5 8.6    
Fri Dec-23 Bahamas 1:00 PM ESPN
Old Dominion Eastern Michigan 1.8 2.8 2.3    
Fri Dec-23 Armed Forces 4:30 PM ESPN
Navy Louisiana Tech 8.7 6.1 7.0    
Fri Dec-23 Dollar General 8:00 PM ESPN
Ohio U Troy 0.4 3.3 0.2    
Sat Dec-24 Hawaii 8:00 PM ESPN
Hawaii Middle Tenn. -3.6 -5.5 -4.3    
Mon Dec-26 St. Petersburg 11:00 AM ESPN
Miami (O) Mississippi St. -19.8 -16.2 -17.2    
Mon Dec-26 Quick Lane 2:30 PM ESPN
Boston College Maryland 3.7 0.1 4.7    
Mon Dec-26 Independence 5:00 PM ESPN2
N. Carolina St. Vanderbilt 1.3 0.9 2.1    
Tue Dec-27 Heart of Dallas 12:00 PM ESPN
Army North Texas 9.4 11.9 10.3    
Tue Dec-27 Military 3:30 PM ESPN
Temple Wake Forest 10.3 11.1 11.0    
Tue Dec-27 Holiday 7:00 PM ESPN
Minnesota Washington St. -7.5 -6.4 -7.3    
Tue Dec-27 Cactus 10:15 PM ESPN
Baylor Boise St. -0.7 -1.5 -1.4  
Wed Dec-28 Pinstripe 2:00 PM ESPN
Pittsburgh Northwestern 9.0 8.4 9.3    
Wed Dec-28 Russell Athletic 5:30 PM ESPN
Miami (Fla.) West Virginia 8.0 3.1 8.3    
Wed Dec-28 Foster Farms 8:30 PM Fox
Indiana Utah -9.2 -3.2 -8.5    
Wed Dec-28 Texas 9:00 PM ESPN
Kansas St. Texas A&M -2.0 1.3 -2.3    
Thu Dec-29 Birmingham 2:00 PM ESPN
South Florida South Carolina 11.7 10.5 12.8    
Thu Dec-29 Belk 5:30 PM ESPN
Virginia Tech Arkansas 7.7 -0.2 8.7    
Thu Dec-29 Alamo 9:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma St. Colorado -0.5 5.2 -1.0    
Fri Dec-30 Liberty 12:00 PM ESPN
TCU Georgia -0.9 1.4 -1.2    
Fri Dec-30 Sun 2:00 PM CBS
North Carolina Stanford 1.3 1.6 1.6    
Fri Dec-30 Music City 3:30 PM ESPN
Nebraska Tennessee -9.3 -9.1 -8.8    
Fri Dec-30 Arizona 5:30 PM Campus Insiders
Air Force South Alabama 15.8 11.2 15.3    
Fri Dec-30 Orange 8:00 PM ESPN
Florida St. Michigan -3.1 -6.9 -3.6    
Sat Dec-31 Citrus 11:00 AM ABC
Louisville LSU -3.0 -2.0 -2.7    
Sat Dec-31 TaxSlayer 11:00 AM ESPN
Georgia Tech Kentucky 6.1 2.2 5.5    
Sat Dec-31 Peach 3:00 PM ESPN
Alabama Washington 7.2 8.2 7.8    
Sat Dec-31 Fiesta 7:00 PM ESPN
Clemson Ohio St. 2.0 -3.6 0.9    
Mon Jan-2 Outback 1:00 PM ABC
Florida Iowa -1.5 1.8 -2.9    
Mon Jan-2 Cotton 1:00 PM ESPN
Western Mich. Wisconsin -5.5 -3.7 -4.2    
Mon Jan-2 Rose 5:00 PM ESPN
Penn St. USC -6.9 -2.2 -5.3    
Mon Jan-2 Sugar 8:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma Auburn 4.7 4.8 4.7    
Mon Jan-9 Championship 8:00 PM ESPN
Fiesta Winner Peach Winner Tampa, FL      

 

Note: Beginning the end of December, our Pirate College Basketball picks will return for the Saturday and Sunday major conferences and top teams.

 

 

 

 

 

December 7, 2016

Our Unique Way of Compiling our College Retrodictive Ratings

We have been asked by multiple readers to explain a little more in depth how we compile our PiRate Retrodictive ratings and what exactly this rating means.

 

By the way, if you have comments you would like to make, please visit our sister site and use the “contact us” link, at:

http://piratings.webs.com/

There are basically two types of ratings in sports like football and basketball. The first type is Predictive, and this type is used by sports bettors. As the name implies, these ratings are used to attempt to predict the outcomes of the next week of games. If State U has a rating of 106.5, and Tech has a rating of 102.3, then on a neutral field, State would be expected to beat Tech by 4.2 points. Of course, home field advantage could alter this predictive spread by additional points. The regular PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings are predictive in nature. A team that started the season 0-4 and then finished 8-4 might be favored in a bowl over a team that went 11-1, because what the 8-4 team did in its first four games is not as important as what they did in their final games.

Retrodictive ratings or rankings look backward and rate the teams on what they have done to date. What the team did in its first game is just as important as what they did in their most recent game. It is an attempt to rank the teams by their performance on their whole body of work. That 8-4 team would most likely be rated well behind the 11-1 team on the body of work to date.

Our Retrodictive Rankings take considerably more time to compile than our regular PiRate Ratings. First, there are three components to the ranking. The first is rather obvious–wins and losses. The second is also obvious–strength of schedule. The third is well known to many, but you may not realize that in addition to strength of schedule, the strengths of schedule of all the opponents played is vitally important.

As an example, let’s say that Iowa opens the season with a win over Boston College. As the season goes on, Iowa’s rating is influenced by what Boston College does and what all the teams Boston College plays do. So, if Iowa has a bye after that first game, and Boston College proceeds to beat Florida State the following week, Iowa’s rating is going to go up almost as much as Boston College’s rating goes up.

Point differential can be included in retrodictive-style ratings, and we here at the PiRate Ratings have a rather unique way of including the type of score in a team’s wins and losses. It is not an exact science, but we like our version and believe it has merit over standard point differential. Here is a rundown on this process.
What type of win or loss was this game for the team in question? We rate wins and losses as:
A. Blowout
B. Decisive
C. Good
D. Fortunate
E. Tossup

A blowout win does not have to be by 40 points. If a team wins 28-0 and holds their opponent to 150 total yards, this rates as a blowout. If a team led 42-0 at halftime and then won 49-24, it still counts as a blowout. If a team led 24-20 midway through the third quarter and then won 45-20, this will usually not count as a blowout.

A decisive win is one in which the winner would have won this game close to 100% of the time but did not win in such a way that allowed the team to rest its starters for the final 20-25 minutes of the game. A 35-10 win with the winner leading 21-10 and scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter would be one example of a decisive but not blowout win.

A good win is one in which the winner would have probably won 7 to 8 times out of 10 with the same stats generated. A 10-17 point win is often a good win, unless the winner was outgained by more than 100 yards.

A fortunate win is one in which the winner won by 4-9 points but the outcome was always in doubt. In some cases, the winner had stats that looked more like they should have been the loser.

A tossup win is the same as a fortunate win but with the final spread being 1-3 points. All overtime wins count as tossup wins.

The better the win, the more points the winner receives and the loser gives up. If Georgia beats North Carolina 42-14, they receive more points than if they beat the Tar Heels 17-14.

For strength of schedule, we rate each of the 128 FBS teams from 10 to -10 in tenths so that the current top team is ranked as a 10, and the number 128 team is ranked as -10. FCS teams receive a rating of 5.0 to -15.0.

Let’s say that through 4 games, Oklahoma has played teams that currently rate in our strength of schedule as 9.2, 8.6, 5.4, and 1.3 points. The Sooners’ average schedule strength is 6.1. We are not done yet. Now, we have to adjust this number based on the strength of Oklahoma’s opponents’ schedule other than playing the Sooners. So, if that 9.2 strength team played a schedule to date that averages 5.8, and the other three teams played schedules with 4.3, 7.1, and -2.9, Oklahoma’s opponents’ strength of schedules average to 3.6.
Obviously, Oklahoma’s own strength of schedule of 6.1 is worth more than their opponents’ strength of schedule of 3.6, but their schedule strength portion of the equation is lower than 6.1 because of the weaker scheduling of their opponents. In this case, the algorithm we use through 4 games played will lower the overall strength to about 5.3.

We combine the score for the team’s wins and losses with the schedule strength, and it leaves us with a final number between 10 and -10. In actuality, no team approaches these outlier numbers. For instance, this week, Alabama comes in at 8.27 to be number one, while Texas State and Buffalo bring up the rear at -7.59. Because these are not predictive, you cannot use these numbers to predict the outcome of a game should Alabama play Texas State or Buffalo.

Of course, home field advantage is factored into the outcomes of the games. If Georgia beats Clemson between the hedges by a score of 17-14, it does not count as much as if they had defeated the Tigers 17-14 at Howard’s Rock.

We hope that clarifies and not confuses you further.  We are better with numbers than with letters.

December 4, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For December 10, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:49 pm

There is only one game this week, the annual Army-Navy game, played this season in Baltimore.  Because our ratings for all 128 teams can be affected by just one game, we will not issue our bowl picks until after the conclusion of the game this weekend.

So, since there is not much to post this week, let us relay a little mathematical data concerning the Big Ten Conference, and its one playoff representative.

A similar thing occurred in 2006, when Ohio State played Florida for the national championship.  The Buckeyes were number one after narrowly defeating second-ranked Michigan at the Giant Horseshoe in Columbus.  The score that day was Ohio State 42 Michigan 39.

Ohio State defeated Michigan this year in double overtime and due to a favorable call that might have been and might not have been correct, but wasn’t reviewed.

Ohio State went to the national championship in 2006, and they will go to the playoffs this year.  Michigan will have to be consoled with an Orange Bowl bid.

We asked then and ask now, “How much is Ohio State’s home field advantage worth?”

We can tell you that in 2006, Ohio State’s home field advantage for the Michigan game was worth more than four points, but rounded to four.  They beat Michigan by three.

This year, Ohio State’s home field advantage for the Michigan game was just a tad under three points which rounded to three points.  The score was tied at the end of regulation.

In actuality, both in 2006 and in 2016, Michigan was slightly better than Ohio State in the rivalry game and slightly better ranked, but both times, the Buckeyes earned the right to play for the championship.

This is a recurring theme.  In 1973, Michigan looked like the better team at the end of the day in a 10-10 tie of undefeated teams, but Ohio State received the Rose Bowl invitation (and Michigan stayed home at 10-0-1), because Michigan’s quarterback had been injured and was not a sure thing to be ready for the Rose Bowl (The Big Ten decided who went to Pasadena).

We are not advocating that Michigan be given the Playoff spot over Ohio State.  We are just alluding to the point that home field advantage should be part of the equation as long as there is going to be a playoff committee.

Our true belief is there should be no playoff committee.  The participants should be decided strictly on the results with tiebreakers similar to the NFL.  Of course, the NFL has the advantage in that every team in a division plays its division rivals twice, home and home.  The Big Ten cannot schedule home and home so that Michigan and Ohio State would play both in Columbus and in Ann Arbor every year.

In another dozen or so years, expect the number of playoff teams to expand to 8, and then maybe 12, and maybe even 16, and this controversy will be replaced with the controversy of team number 17 being left out while team number 16 got in.  We only hope that by the time the playoffs expand to 16 teams, there will be a new way to select them, maybe 8 conferences with two divisions each, and each division getting a team in the football dance.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 132.5 138.7 136.6
2 Washington 133.0 125.8 132.4 130.4
3 Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
4 Clemson 129.5 123.5 128.7 127.2
5 Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
6 Oklahoma 125.2 123.3 125.1 124.5
7 LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
8 USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
9 Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
10 Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
11 Penn St. 119.9 119.7 120.0 119.9
12 Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
13 Wisconsin 118.7 116.7 119.1 118.2
14 Virginia Tech 118.7 116.9 118.8 118.1
15 Oklahoma St. 116.6 117.9 116.0 116.8
16 Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
17 Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
18 Colorado 117.1 112.7 117.0 115.6
19 Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
20 North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
21 Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
22 Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
23 Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
24 Kansas St. 111.9 113.7 111.9 112.5
25 Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
26 Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
27 Florida 112.4 112.9 110.9 112.1
28 West Virginia 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6
29 Temple 111.5 110.6 112.3 111.5
30 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
31 Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
32 Western Kentucky 110.7 108.8 112.1 110.5
33 Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
34 South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
35 Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
36 BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
37 Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
38 Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
39 Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
40 TCU 107.4 109.1 106.4 107.6
41 North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
42 Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
43 Navy 107.4 106.1 107.5 107.0
44 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
45 Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
46 Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
47 Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
48 Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
49 Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
50 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
51 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
52 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
53 Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
54 San Diego St. 103.8 102.6 105.6 104.0
55 Baylor 103.8 104.2 103.8 103.9
56 Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
57 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
58 Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
61 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
62 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
63 Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
64 Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
68 Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
69 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
70 Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
71 Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
72 Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
73 South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
74 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
75 Louisiana Tech 96.5 98.7 98.2 97.8
76 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
77 New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
78 Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
79 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
80 Arkansas St. 93.1 95.8 94.8 94.6
81 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
82 Wyoming 93.5 94.1 94.5 94.0
83 Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
84 Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
85 Troy 91.0 94.8 92.8 92.9
86 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
87 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
88 Army 89.4 95.8 90.6 91.9
89 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
90 Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
91 Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
92 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
93 UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
94 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
95 Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
98 Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Idaho 85.6 90.4 87.8 87.9
102 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
103 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
104 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
105 UL-Lafayette 84.8 88.6 86.4 86.6
106 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
107 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 South Alabama 81.8 88.0 82.5 84.1
111 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
112 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
113 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
114 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
115 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
116 Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
117 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
118 Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
121 North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
127 UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
128 Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 111.5 110.6 112.3 111.5
South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
Navy 107.4 106.1 107.5 107.0
Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 99.2 99.2 99.6 99.3
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 129.5 123.5 128.7 127.2
Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.7 116.9 118.8 118.1
Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 125.2 123.3 125.1 124.5
Oklahoma St. 116.6 117.9 116.0 116.8
Kansas St. 111.9 113.7 111.9 112.5
West Virginia 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6
TCU 107.4 109.1 106.4 107.6
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Baylor 103.8 104.2 103.8 103.9
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
Penn St. 119.9 119.7 120.0 119.9
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 118.7 116.7 119.1 118.2
Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 110.7 108.8 112.1 110.5
Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.5 98.7 98.2 97.8
UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
Army 89.4 95.8 90.6 91.9
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Independents Averages 98.1 99.2 98.3 98.5
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
Wyoming 93.5 94.1 94.5 94.0
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 103.8 102.6 105.6 104.0
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 133.0 125.8 132.4 130.4
Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
Colorado 117.1 112.7 117.0 115.6
Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
Florida 112.4 112.9 110.9 112.1
Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 138.7 132.5 138.7 136.6
LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
Arkansas St. 93.1 95.8 94.8 94.6
Troy 91.0 94.8 92.8 92.9
Idaho 85.6 90.4 87.8 87.9
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
UL-Lafayette 84.8 88.6 86.4 86.6
South Alabama 81.8 88.0 82.5 84.1
Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.3 85.8 83.8 84.0

 

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
2 ACC 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big 12 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
6 AAC 99.2 99.2 99.6 99.3
7 Independents 98.1 99.2 98.3 98.5
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
11 Sun Belt 82.3 85.8 83.8 84.0

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings–similar to the AP and Coaches polls in its purpose

12/4/16
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Washington
6 Penn St.
7 Wisconsin
8 USC
9 Oklahoma
10 Florida St.
11 Western Michigan
12 Colorado
13 Stanford
14 LSU
15 Louisville
16 Auburn
17 West Virginia
18 Oklahoma St.
19 Washington St.
20 South Florida
21 Iowa
22 Boise St.
23 Florida
24 Houston
25 Temple
26 Virginia Tech
27 Pittsburgh
28 Nebraska
29 Miami (Fla)
30 Tennessee
31 Texas A&M
32 Utah
33 Western Kentucky
34 Navy
35 North Carolina
36 Tulsa
37 Minnesota
38 BYU
39 Kansas St.
40 Georgia Tech
41 Appalachian St.
42 Toledo
43 San Diego St.
44 Memphis
45 Georgia
46 Arkansas
47 Northwestern
48 Air Force
49 Kentucky
50 Colorado St.
51 Troy
52 Vanderbilt
53 North Carolina St.
54 Indiana
55 Ole Miss
56 TCU
57 Old Dominion
58 Wyoming
59 California
60 New Mexico
61 Mississippi St.
62 Central Florida
63 Louisiana Tech
64 Maryland
65 UCLA
66 South Carolina
67 Baylor
68 Oregon
69 Notre Dame
70 Idaho
71 Boston College
72 Texas
73 Arkansas St.
74 Wake Forest
75 Ohio
76 Arizona St.
77 Oregon St.
78 Eastern Michigan
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas Tech
81 SMU
82 Missouri
83 Duke
84 Michigan St.
85 Syracuse
86 Central Michigan
87 UTSA
88 UL-Lafayette
89 Army
90 Miami (O)
91 Northern Illinois
92 Iowa St.
93 Arizona
94 Southern Miss.
95 Georgia Southern
96 Hawaii
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Bowling Green
104 Purdue
105 East Carolina
106 Virginia
107 San Jose St.
108 Nevada
109 North Texas
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 Rutgers
113 UL-Monroe
114 Kent St.
115 Kansas
116 Georgia St.
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Fresno St.
127 Texas St.
128 Buffalo

 

Army – Navy Game played at Baltimore

Team Team PiRate Mean Bias
Army (N) Navy -18.0 -10.3 -16.9

 

The Bowl Schedule

Day Date Bowl Conferences Time (ET) Network
Sat Dec-17 New Mexico MWC CUSA 2:00 PM ESPN
New Mexico (7-5) vs. Texas-San Antonio (6-6)
Sat Dec-17 Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC 3:30 PM ABC
Houston * (9-3) vs. San Diego St. (11-2)
Sat Dec-17 Cure AAC SBC 5:30 PM CBSSN
Central Florida (6-6) vs. Arkansas St. (7-5)
Sat Dec-17 Camellia MAC SBC 5:30 PM ESPN
Toledo (9-3) vs. Appalachian St. (9-3)
Sat Dec-17 New Orleans CUSA SBC 9:00 PM ESPN
Southern Miss. (6-6) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6)
Mon Dec-19 Miami Beach AAC MAC 2:30 PM ESPN
Tulsa (9-3) vs. Central Michigan (6-6)
Tue Dec-20 Boca Raton AAC CUSA 7:00 PM ESPN
Memphis (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (11-2)
Wed Dec-21 Poinsettia MWC BYU 9:00 PM ESPN
Wyoming (9-4) vs. BYU (8-4)
Thu Dec-22 Idaho Potato MAC MWC 7:00 PM ESPN
Idaho * (8-4) vs. Colorado St. (6-6)
Fri Dec-23 Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA 1:00 PM ESPN
Old Dominion (9-3) vs. Eastern Michigan (7-5)
Fri Dec-23 Armed Forces Navy Big 12 4:30 PM ESPN
Navy (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-5)
Fri Dec-23 Dollar Gen. MAC SBC 8:00 PM ESPN
Ohio U (8-5) vs. Troy (9-3)
Sat Dec-24 Hawaii CUSA MWC 8:00 PM ESPN
Middle Tennessee (8-4) vs. Hawaii (6-7)
Mon Dec-26 St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND 11:00 AM ESPN
Miami (O) * (6-6) vs. Mississippi St. * (5-7)
Mon Dec-26 Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten 2:30 PM ESPN
Boston College (6-6) vs. Maryland (6-6)
Mon Dec-26 Independence SEC ACC/ND 5:00 PM ESPN2
Vanderbilt (6-6) vs. North Carolina St. (6-6)
Tue Dec-27 Ht. of Dallas Big Ten CUSA 12:00 PM ESPN
Army * (6-5) vs. North Texas (5-7)
Tue Dec-27 Military ACC/ND AAC 3:30 PM ESPN
Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Temple (10-3)
Tue Dec-27 Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 7:00 PM ESPN
Minnesota (8-4) vs. Washington St. (8-4)
Tue Dec-27 Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 10:15 PM ESPN
Baylor (6-6) vs. Boise St. (10-2)
Wed Dec-28 Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten 2:00 PM ESPN
Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
Wed Dec-28 Russell Athl. ACC/ND Big 12 5:30 PM ESPN
Miami (Fla.) 8-4 vs. West Virginia (9-3)
Wed Dec-28 Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 8:30 PM FOX
Indiana (6-6) vs. Utah (8-4)
Wed Dec-28 Texas Big 12 SEC 9:00 PM ESPN
Kansas St. (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)
Thu Dec-29 Birmingham AAC SEC 2:00 PM ESPN
South Florida (10-2) vs. South Carolina (6-6)
Thu Dec-29 Belk ACC/ND SEC 5:30 PM ESPN
Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. Arkansas (7-5)
Thu Dec-29 Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 9:00 PM ESPN
Oklahoma St. (9-3) vs. Colorado (10-3)
Fri Dec-30 Liberty Big 12 SEC 12:00 PM ESPN
TCU (6-6) vs. Georgia (7-5)
Fri Dec-30 Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 2:00 PM CBS
North Carolina (8-4) vs. Stanford (9-3)
Fri Dec-30 Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC 3:30 PM ESPN
Nebraska (9-3) vs. Tennessee (8-4)
Fri Dec-30 Arizona SBC MWC 5:30 PM No TV ^
South Alabama (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
Fri Dec-30 Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC 8:00 PM ESPN
Florida St. (9-3) vs. Michigan (10-2)
Sat Dec-31 Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC 11:00 AM ABC
Louisville (9-3) vs. LSU (7-4)
Sat Dec-31 TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC 11:00 AM ESPN
Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Kentucky (7-5)
Sat Dec-31 Peach Semifinal Semifinal 3:00 PM ESPN
Alabama (13-0) vs. Washington (12-1)
Sat Dec-31 Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal 7:00 PM ESPN
Clemson (12-1) vs. Ohio St. (11-1)
Mon Jan-2 Outback Big Ten SEC 1:00 PM ABC
Iowa (8-4) vs. Florida (8-4)
Mon Jan-2 Cotton At-Large At-Large 1:00 PM ESPN
Western Michigan (13-0) vs. Wisconsin (10-3)
Mon Jan-2 Rose Big Ten Pac-12 5:00 PM ESPN
Penn St. (11-2) vs. USC (9-3)
Mon Jan-2 Sugar Big 12 SEC 8:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Mon Jan-9 Championship Semifinal Winners 8:00 PM ESPN
Alabama/Washington vs. Clemson/Ohio St.
  • * Replacement Team
  • ^ Arizona Bowl will be broadcast online only at Campus Insiders website

December 3, 2016

Final Bowl Projections–December 4, 2016 @ 1AM EST

Here are the final projections for the 2016-17 FBS Bowls.  Tomorrow’s regular Sunday submission will come later in the evening after the bowl games have been announced.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC {Miss. St.} vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. Appy St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Sou. Miss. vs. UL-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC MAC Houston vs. Toledo
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Western Ky.
Poinsettia MWC BYU Colorado St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA O. Dominion vs. Eastern Mich.
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {North Texas}
Dollar General MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. Arkansas St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. {Hawaii}
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND South Florida vs. Boston Coll.
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten [Army] vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC/ND S.Carolina vs. Wake Forest
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA S.Alabama vs. La. Tech
Military ACC/ND AAC N. Carolina St. vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Wash. St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. [Boise St.]
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten N. Carolina vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Utah
Texas Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulsa vs. Vanderbilt
Belk ACC/ND SEC Miami (Fla) vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Colorado vs. Oklahoma St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Georgia
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Idaho vs. Air Force
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Tennessee
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Florida St. vs. Michigan
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Louisville vs. LSU
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Wisconsin
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. USC
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Clemson
           
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team] At-Large Selection

November 28, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For December 1-3, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:24 am

The 2016 football season seemed to have just started a couple weeks ago, but here we are already to Championship Week.  This year’s list of Conference Championship Games are sure to provide excitement, but there may be a little less intrigue in some of the contests.  Of course, just one upset in a game figured to be an easy win for the favorite can make one of these games become monumental.

 

Without further adieu, here is a breakdown of the week’s big games.

Friday

The opening conference title game begins at 7 PM Eastern Time on ESPN2 when Western Michigan and Ohio University square off in Detroit in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.  The Broncos are in the Cotton Bowl with a win unless Navy wins the AAC by enough to jump WMU in the final playoff rankings.

In the nightcap, Colorado faces Washington in Santa Clara, California, as the host site of the last Super Bowl to decide the Pac-12 Conference Championship.  A UW win would likely allow the Huskies the privilege of playing top-seeded Alabama in the Peach Bowl in the playoff semifinals.  Colorado is likely to receive the Rose Bowl bid, win or lose this game.  9 PM EST on Fox

 

Saturday

all times EST

12 Noon on ABC–The American Athletic Conference Championship Game

Temple at Navy

Navy faces a strange circumstance in that they will play in their league’s conference championship this week and then play rival Army next week.  They could win the AAC title and then lose to Army and miss out on a possible Cotton Bowl bid as the highest-rated Group of 5 team.  Even in the Midshipmen win both games, they might not pass a 13-0 Western Michigan team.

12 Noon on ESPN–The Conference USA Championship Game

Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky

This conference doesn’t actually rank its bowl tie-ins.  They try to guide their member teams to bowls that create the best possible match-ups, so the game’s outcome could have very little effect on the bowls.  These teams played earlier in the year, with LT handing Western its lone conference loss in a 55-52 shootout.  Hilltopper Coach Jeff Brohm could be coaching his final game with the Hilltoppers, as he will be a prime candidate in multiple open jobs among Power 5 leagues.

12:30 PM on Fox–The De Facto Big 12 Championship Game

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

The winner of this game wins the Big 12 regular season title and most likely earns a trip to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.  A very convincing Sooner win and losses by Clemson and Washington could give OU a small chance to make the Playoffs, but this league is going to be hurt by not having that 13th game with highly-ranked teams facing off.

4 PM on CBS–The Southeastern Conference Championship Game

Alabama vs. Florida in Georgia Dome in Atlanta

The Crimson Tide basically clinched a berth in the Playoffs, and now they must win one more game to guarantee the top seed and know they will be returning to Atlanta for the Semifinal Round on New Year’s Eve.

Florida is playing for a Sugar Bowl bid only, as they are 8-3 and have no chance to make the Playoffs.  They also have virtually no chance to win this game, but they could make it interesting for a half.  The way the Tide has been playing defense in November, they could possibly pitch a shutout in this game.

 

7:45 PM on ESPN–The Mountain West Conference Championship Game

San Diego State at Wyoming

These two teams squared off two weeks ago in Laramie with Wyoming winning a hard-fought game.  Both teams come into this game off regular season losses.  The winner heads to Las Vegas for bowl season.  If SDSU loses, they could play at home in the Poinsettia Bowl, and if Wyoming loses, they could be headed to the field of Blue to play in the Idaho Potato Bowl.

 

8PM on ABC–The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech in Orlando, Florida

Clemson is playing for a playoff spot, and a win secures their golden ticket.  A Virginia Tech upset would send the Hokies to the Orange Bowl, and CU possibly to the Cotton Bowl.

 

8 PM on Fox–The Big Ten Conference Championship

Wisconsin vs. Penn State at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana

To the winner goes a trip to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl and the chance for their band to play in the greatest parade on Earth.  The loser could be faced with an uninspiring trip to Dallas to face Western Kentucky or Navy in the Cotton Bowl.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 131.1 137.5 135.4
2 Washington 131.0 123.8 130.4 128.4
3 Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
4 Clemson 129.7 123.5 128.9 127.4
5 Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
6 Oklahoma 124.3 122.7 124.1 123.7
7 LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
8 USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
9 Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
10 Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
11 Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
12 Penn St. 119.1 119.4 118.9 119.1
13 Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
14 Virginia Tech 118.5 116.9 118.6 118.0
15 Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.5 117.0 117.7
16 Colorado 119.1 114.7 119.0 117.6
17 Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
18 Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
19 Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
20 North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
21 Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
22 Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
23 Florida 113.6 114.3 112.1 113.3
24 Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
25 Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
26 West Virginia 112.5 111.8 112.2 112.2
27 Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
28 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
29 Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
30 Western Kentucky 110.8 108.7 112.2 110.6
31 TCU 110.3 111.7 109.4 110.5
32 Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
33 Kansas St. 109.0 111.1 108.9 109.7
34 South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
35 Navy 110.0 108.4 110.2 109.6
36 Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
37 BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
38 Temple 108.9 108.3 109.6 109.0
39 Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
40 Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
41 Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
42 North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
43 Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
44 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
45 Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
46 Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
47 Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
48 Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
49 Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
50 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
51 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
52 San Diego St. 104.0 102.7 105.9 104.2
53 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
54 Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
55 Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
56 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
57 Baylor 103.2 103.9 103.1 103.4
58 Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
61 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
62 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
63 Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
64 Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
68 Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
69 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
70 Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
71 Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
72 Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
73 South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
74 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
75 Louisiana Tech 96.4 98.8 98.1 97.8
76 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
77 New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
78 Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
79 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
80 Arkansas St. 93.3 95.9 95.1 94.8
81 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
82 Wyoming 93.3 94.0 94.2 93.9
83 Troy 91.7 95.6 93.6 93.7
84 Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
85 Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
86 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
87 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
88 Army 89.4 95.8 90.6 91.9
89 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
90 Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
91 Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
92 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
93 UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
94 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
95 Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
98 Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
102 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
103 Georgia Southern 85.6 86.6 87.1 86.5
104 Idaho 83.8 88.8 85.8 86.1
105 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
106 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
107 UL-Lafayette 83.0 87.1 84.7 85.0
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
111 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
112 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
113 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
114 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
115 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
116 Georgia St. 79.4 83.6 81.4 81.5
117 Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
118 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
121 North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.1 77.0 75.1 75.4
127 UL-Monroe 70.6 75.6 71.5 72.6
128 Texas St. 62.1 64.8 63.0 63.3

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings–Like the Coaches Poll and Not For Predicting Future Outcomes

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Wisconsin
6 Washington
7 Penn St.
8 USC
9 Colorado
10 Western Michigan
11 Oklahoma
12 Florida St.
13 Stanford
14 Oklahoma St.
15 LSU
16 Louisville
17 Auburn
18 Florida
19 Washington St.
20 West Virginia
21 South Florida
22 Iowa
23 Houston
24 Navy
25 Boise St.
26 Virginia Tech
27 Pittsburgh
28 Nebraska
29 Miami (Fla)
30 Tennessee
31 Texas A&M
32 Utah
33 Temple
34 North Carolina
35 Tulsa
36 Western Kentucky
37 Minnesota
38 BYU
39 Georgia Tech
40 Kansas St.
41 Appalachian St.
42 Toledo
43 Troy
44 Memphis
45 Georgia
46 Arkansas
47 San Diego St.
48 Northwestern
49 TCU
50 Air Force
51 Kentucky
52 Colorado St.
53 Vanderbilt
54 North Carolina St.
55 Indiana
56 Ole Miss
57 Wyoming
58 California
59 Old Dominion
60 Louisiana Tech
61 New Mexico
62 Mississippi St.
63 Baylor
64 Central Florida
65 Maryland
66 UCLA
67 South Carolina
68 Oregon
69 Notre Dame
70 Boston College
71 Texas
72 Ohio
73 Idaho
74 Wake Forest
75 Arkansas St.
76 Arizona St.
77 Oregon St.
78 Eastern Michigan
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas Tech
81 SMU
82 Missouri
83 Duke
84 Michigan St.
85 Syracuse
86 Central Michigan
87 UTSA
88 Army
89 Miami (O)
90 Northern Illinois
91 Iowa St.
92 Arizona
93 Southern Miss.
94 Georgia Southern
95 Hawaii
96 UL-Lafayette
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Bowling Green
104 Purdue
105 East Carolina
106 Virginia
107 San Jose St.
108 Nevada
109 North Texas
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 UL-Monroe
113 Georgia St.
114 Rutgers
115 Kent St.
116 Kansas
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Texas St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Buffalo

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
Temple 108.9 108.3 109.6 109.0
Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
Navy 110.0 108.4 110.2 109.6
Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 99.2 99.2 99.6 99.3
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 129.7 123.5 128.9 127.4
Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.5 116.9 118.6 118.0
Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 124.3 122.7 124.1 123.7
Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.5 117.0 117.7
West Virginia 112.5 111.8 112.2 112.2
TCU 110.3 111.7 109.4 110.5
Kansas St. 109.0 111.1 108.9 109.7
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Baylor 103.2 103.9 103.1 103.4
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
Penn St. 119.1 119.4 118.9 119.1
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 110.8 108.7 112.2 110.6
Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.4 98.8 98.1 97.8
UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
Army 89.4 95.8 90.6 91.9
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Indep. Averages 98.1 99.2 98.3 98.5
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
Wyoming 93.3 94.0 94.2 93.9
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 104.0 102.7 105.9 104.2
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 131.0 123.8 130.4 128.4
Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
Colorado 119.1 114.7 119.0 117.6
Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 113.6 114.3 112.1 113.3
Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 137.5 131.1 137.5 135.4
LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
Arkansas St. 93.3 95.9 95.1 94.8
Troy 91.7 95.6 93.6 93.7
Georgia Southern 85.6 86.6 87.1 86.5
Idaho 83.8 88.8 85.8 86.1
UL-Lafayette 83.0 87.1 84.7 85.0
South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
Georgia St. 79.4 83.6 81.4 81.5
New Mexico St. 74.1 77.0 75.1 75.4
UL-Monroe 70.6 75.6 71.5 72.6
Texas St. 62.1 64.8 63.0 63.3
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.3 85.9 83.8 84.0

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–December 2-3, 2016
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Kansas St. 4.3 3.6 3.5
Georgia Southern Troy -3.6 -6.5 -4.0
Navy Temple 4.1 3.1 3.6
Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 17.4 12.9 17.1
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 7.8 10.2 8.1
South Alabama New Mexico St. 10.3 13.7 10.1
UL-Monroe UL-Lafayette -8.9 -10.0 -11.7
West Virginia Baylor 12.3 10.9 12.1
Alabama Florida 23.9 18.8 25.4
Idaho Georgia St. 7.4 8.2 7.4
Texas St. Arkansas St. -28.7 -28.6 -29.6
Wyoming San Diego St. -7.7 -5.7 -8.7
Clemson Virginia Tech 11.2 6.6 10.3
Wisconsin Penn St. 0.4 -2.4 1.3

 

Washington Colorado 12.1 9.1 11.4
Western Michigan Ohio 21.8 15.9 22.9

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. La. Tech
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC {Hawaii} vs. Wyoming
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. UL-Lafayette
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Sou. Miss. vs. Appy St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC Tulsa vs. Ohio
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. * BYU *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Boise St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA South Florida vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {North Texas}
Dollar General MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. Arkansas St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Old Dominion vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND {Army} vs. Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Boston College vs. {Miss. St.}
Independence SEC ACC/ND Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {S.Alabama} vs. UTSA
Military ACC/ND AAC N. Carolina St. vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. [Idaho]
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Louisville vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Wash. St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. S. Carolina
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Tennessee
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 N. Carolina vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Middle Tenn. vs. Colorado St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Indiana vs. Kentucky
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Florida St. vs. Michigan
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Florida
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. LSU
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Penn St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Clemson
           
           
* Team * This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team] At-Large Selection

 

November 20, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 22-26, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:06 pm

And Down The Stretch They Come
If your favorite team is in a conference with a conference championship game, then this is your team’s final regular season week. If not, then your team may have two more regular season games left. Let’s take a look at each conference to see where the races stand.

American
East: Temple controls its own destiny. If the Owls beat East Carolina in Philly this week, they are the division champs. If Temple loses, then South Florida can become division champs with a win over Central Florida. UCF is bowl eligible.

West: Navy has already clinched the division title regardless of what the Midshipmen do at SMU this week. Oddly, they will play the AAC Championship Game on December 3 and then face Army the week after. Navy is still technically alive for a Cotton Bowl bid should Western Michigan lose, so they cannot accept the Armed Forces Bowl bid just yet.
Houston, Memphis, and Tulsa are bowl eligible, and SMU needs to upset Navy to get to 6-6.

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson has secured the division flag and will advance to the conference championship game. Louisville and Florida State are still alive for an Orange Bowl berth, while Wake Forest is bowl eligible. North Carolina State must upset North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Friday to become bowl eligible, while Boston College stands at 5-6 and would earn bowl eligibility with a win at Wake Forest. However, the Eagles might still receive a bid at 5-7 due to their high position in APR score. Syracuse has a very slim chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 if they win at Pitt in the season finale.

Coastal: Virginia Tech will clinch the division title with a win over Virginia. Should the Hokies fall, then North Carolina can win the title by topping North Carolina St. If both Virginia Tech and UNC lose, even though there could be a three or four-way tie including Pitt and Miami, the Hokies would win the tiebreaker and face Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
Duke is 4-7 and needs to win at Miami to become the top 5-7 team for an alternate bowl bid.

Big 12
The winner of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game two Saturdays from now takes the Big 12 title. If it is Oklahoma, the Sooners are still alive for a Playoff berth. If it is Okie State, the Cowboys would secure the Sugar Bowl spot. West Virginia, Baylor, and Kansas State are also bowl eligible. Texas at 5-6 must beat TCU this week to become bowl eligible, while TCU must beat either Texas this week or Kansas State the following week to become bowl eligible.

Big Ten
East: If Michigan beats Ohio State, the Wolverines are division champs. If Ohio State wins, then Penn State would be the division champion if they beat Michigan State. If Ohio State wins and Penn State loses, the Buckeyes would be the division champs. Indiana must beat Purdue, and Maryland must take out Rutgers for the Hoosiers and Terrapins to become bowl eligible.

West: Although Iowa and Minnesota can still finish in a multiple-way tie, only Wisconsin or Nebraska can win the division. If UW beat Minnesota, the Badgers are in the conference championship game. If UW loses, and Nebraska wins at Iowa, the Cornhuskers earn the division flag. In addition to Iowa and Minnesota, Northwestern can become bowl eligible if the Wildcats beat Illinois. If the Illini win, the Wildcats still have an excellent chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7, since NU is second to Duke in APR score.

Conference USA
East: Western Kentucky will win the division title with a win at Marshall. If the Hilltoppers lose this game, then Old Dominion would win the flag with a win over Florida International. If both WKU and ODU lose, then WKU would back into the title. Middle Tennessee is also bowl eligible.

West: Louisiana Tech has already clinched the division title. UTSA is bowl eligible and will earn its first ever bowl game. Southern Miss must beat La. Tech to become bowl eligible, while North Texas needs to beat UTEP to become bowl eligible, although the Mean Green could sneak into a bowl at 5-7 due to their high APR score (better than Boston College, Indiana, Maryland, Syracuse).

FBS Independents
Notre Dame is 4-7, and if the Irish upset USC in LA, at 5-7, it is not sure whether the Irish would accept a bowl bid. They would not be guaranteed to get in, as they have the #30 APR score.
BYU has accepted the Poinsettia Bowl bid that was theirs if they became bowl eligible.
Army is 6-5, but the Black Knights are not yet bowl eligible, as two of those wins are against FCS schools. The Cadets must beat Navy to become bowl eligible, but a loss to drop them to 6-6 would almost assuredly still allow the West Pointers to earn an alternate bowl bid, as 6-6 with two FCS wins trumps any 5-7.

Mid-American
East: Ohio U wins the division with a victory over Akron this week. If the Bobcats lose this game, then Miami of Ohio can win the division with a victory over Ball St. If the Redhawks win, they will become the first team to ever go to a bowl after starting a season 0-6. If Ohio wins, Miami will still get a bowl with a win. Akron must beat Ohio to become bowl eligible.
West: Western Michigan is a win over Toledo and over Ohio or Miami from getting to the Cotton Bowl. If the Rockets upset the Broncos, then it will be Toledo heading to the MAC Championship Game. Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan are also bowl eligible.

Mountain West
Mountain: Wyoming was picked to finish last in the division, but a Cowboy win over New Mexico will give them the division title. If the Lobos win, then Boise State can earn the flag again with a win at Air Force. If New Mexico, Wyoming, and Boise State end up in a tie, the Cowboys take the flag in the tiebreaker. Air Force and Colorado State are also bowl eligible.

West: San Diego State clinched the division title some time ago. They could be looking at a rematch with Wyoming. Hawaii can get to 6-7 with a win over UMass this week, and the Rainbow Warriors would rank ahead of all 5-7 teams in the alternate bowl pecking order.

Pac-12
North: The division title will be decided in the Palouse this week in the Apple Cup Game, as Washington State hosts Washington. Stanford is the only other division team that is bowl eligible. Oregon can sneak into a bowl at 5-7 with a win over Oregon State, while California would have a miniscule chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 with a win over UCLA.

South: If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffs win the division. If Utah wins, then USC takes the flag. Besides these three, Arizona State needs to beat Arizona to become bowl eligible, while UCLA can get into the 5-7 sweepstakes with a win at Cal. The Bruins are rather far back in APR score and would need a lot of 5-6 and 4-7 teams to lose.

Southeastern
East: Florida clinched the division with their win at LSU. Tennessee is still alive for a NY 6 bowl if they beat Vanderbilt, and Florida loses to Florida State. Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina are bowl eligible. Vanderbilt is 5-6, and if the Commodores do not upset Tennessee this week, they can still get into a bowl due to an APR score that ranks just behind Duke and Northwestern and ahead of everybody else in contention.

West: Alabama has already clinched the division regardless of what happens against Auburn. Auburn is already bowl eligible, as is LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Ole Miss must beat Mississippi State to become bowl eligible.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State lost its first four games, including one to FCS Central Arkansas. Since then, ASU has won six games in a row and has remaining road games against UL-Lafayette and Texas State. The Red Wolves will most likely win both to finish 8-0 in league play, but if ULL upsets ASU, Appalachian State can tie for the league title with a win over New Mexico State this week. Since the two contenders did not play, the conference race would end in a tie. Troy and Idaho are also bowl eligible. South Alabama is 5-5 with games left against Idaho and New Mexico State. The Jaguars must win both to become bowl eligible at 7-5, as they have two FCS wins, but there is a chance the NCAA could grant them leniency for beating Presbyterian after having to relinquish a game against LSU. Still, at 6-6, USA would be headed to a bowl because there will not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill 80 spots. UL-Lafayette must beat Arkansas State and UL-Monroe to become bowl eligible.

Number of Bowl Eligible Teams at Present: 66
Number of Bowl Eligible Teams Projected by PiRate Ratings: 74
Number of non Bowl Eligible Teams Projected to earn bowl bids: 6

Our bowl projections follow at the end of this submission.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 130.9 137.6 135.3
2 Ohio St. 127.4 127.0 127.7 127.4
3 Michigan 127.5 125.6 127.3 126.8
4 Washington 127.9 121.2 127.2 125.4
5 Clemson 127.4 121.0 126.4 124.9
6 Louisville 125.1 121.1 125.1 123.8
7 Oklahoma 124.0 122.4 123.8 123.4
8 LSU 123.9 119.3 123.3 122.2
9 USC 124.0 119.1 122.5 121.9
10 Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
11 Florida St. 121.8 115.8 121.1 119.6
12 Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
13 Colorado 119.3 114.9 119.4 117.9
14 Oklahoma St. 117.2 118.2 116.7 117.4
15 Penn St. 116.5 117.1 116.4 116.7
16 Miami 118.4 112.9 118.3 116.5
17 Pittsburgh 118.1 114.0 117.5 116.5
18 North Carolina 118.4 112.7 118.3 116.5
19 Washington St. 117.3 114.1 116.9 116.1
20 Virginia Tech 116.1 114.7 116.1 115.6
21 Tennessee 116.0 113.6 115.2 114.9
22 Florida 114.6 115.6 113.1 114.4
23 Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
24 Western Michigan 112.7 112.6 114.3 113.2
25 Texas A&M 113.4 112.0 112.8 112.7
26 Iowa 113.1 110.5 112.9 112.2
27 Houston 111.7 110.5 113.1 111.8
28 Notre Dame 112.6 109.8 111.7 111.4
29 Arkansas 112.5 108.2 111.0 110.6
30 Utah 112.5 107.6 111.0 110.4
31 Kansas St. 109.3 111.3 109.4 110.0
32 BYU 111.0 106.5 111.1 109.5
33 West Virginia 109.7 109.2 109.2 109.4
34 South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
35 San Diego St. 108.5 107.2 110.4 108.7
36 Temple 108.7 108.0 109.4 108.7
37 Georgia Tech 110.1 106.2 109.2 108.5
38 Nebraska 109.3 106.9 109.0 108.4
39 TCU 107.9 109.4 106.9 108.1
40 UCLA 108.9 107.1 108.0 108.0
41 Georgia 108.4 107.9 107.7 108.0
42 Ole Miss 109.3 105.6 108.0 107.6
43 Northwestern 108.6 105.2 107.5 107.1
44 Texas 106.8 108.3 105.8 107.0
45 Michigan St. 107.7 106.6 106.4 106.9
46 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
47 Western Kentucky 107.0 104.8 108.3 106.7
48 Boise St. 105.8 106.8 106.6 106.4
49 Tulsa 105.6 106.8 106.4 106.3
50 Baylor 105.5 106.3 105.6 105.8
51 Navy 106.2 104.7 106.3 105.8
52 Mississippi St. 106.2 104.3 105.0 105.2
53 North Carolina St. 106.3 103.1 105.9 105.1
54 Indiana 104.5 105.7 104.1 104.8
55 Memphis 105.6 103.4 104.7 104.6
56 Oregon 105.0 103.1 104.0 104.0
57 Toledo 103.0 103.6 104.0 103.5
58 Vanderbilt 104.8 101.6 103.6 103.4
59 Iowa St. 103.4 103.2 102.6 103.1
60 Wake Forest 102.2 100.3 102.5 101.7
61 Arizona St. 102.5 100.9 101.0 101.5
62 Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
63 Virginia 102.6 99.8 101.7 101.4
64 Duke 101.3 100.5 100.7 100.8
65 Louisiana Tech 99.0 101.0 101.0 100.3
66 Appalachian St. 99.1 100.3 100.7 100.0
67 South Carolina 100.1 99.8 99.8 99.9
68 Texas Tech 100.2 99.5 99.1 99.6
69 Central Florida 97.9 99.1 98.7 98.6
70 Missouri 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.9
71 California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
72 Boston College 98.2 96.8 97.4 97.5
73 Oregon St. 99.3 94.8 98.1 97.4
74 Syracuse 98.6 95.4 96.8 97.0
75 Air Force 96.0 97.8 96.1 96.6
76 Arkansas St. 95.1 97.4 97.0 96.5
77 Wyoming 95.6 95.7 96.6 96.0
78 SMU 95.2 94.7 97.3 95.8
79 Maryland 95.4 97.7 93.6 95.6
80 Northern Illinois 94.5 95.8 95.4 95.2
81 Colorado St. 94.3 95.9 95.4 95.2
82 Central Michigan 93.2 95.2 93.6 94.0
83 New Mexico 92.9 95.2 93.6 93.9
84 Ohio 91.8 97.4 92.5 93.9
85 Troy 91.3 95.4 93.2 93.3
86 Army 89.1 95.5 90.3 91.6
87 Arizona 92.5 90.2 90.8 91.2
88 Cincinnati 90.9 91.7 90.3 91.0
89 Miami (O) 89.9 91.4 91.4 90.9
90 Old Dominion 89.2 92.2 90.4 90.6
91 Illinois 91.8 89.0 90.7 90.5
92 UTSA 86.8 92.6 89.1 89.5
93 Purdue 90.4 88.9 89.0 89.4
94 Utah St. 88.5 91.2 88.2 89.3
95 Middle Tennessee 88.3 89.9 88.5 88.9
96 East Carolina 87.8 89.3 87.8 88.3
97 Eastern Michigan 86.9 89.0 87.6 87.8
98 Connecticut 88.2 87.3 87.6 87.7
99 UNLV 86.1 88.8 86.6 87.2
100 Kansas 86.4 90.5 84.3 87.1
101 Bowling Green 86.6 87.4 86.9 87.0
102 Georgia Southern 85.4 86.4 86.9 86.3
103 Rutgers 87.2 85.4 85.7 86.1
104 Idaho 83.6 88.6 85.6 85.9
105 Southern Mississippi 85.5 86.1 85.5 85.7
106 Nevada 84.6 86.8 85.2 85.6
107 Ball St. 84.2 86.4 85.0 85.2
108 Tulane 83.5 87.2 84.1 84.9
109 Kent St. 84.1 85.6 85.0 84.9
110 South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
111 San Jose St. 84.2 84.2 84.1 84.2
112 Akron 81.4 86.6 82.2 83.4
113 UL-Lafayette 81.2 85.6 82.8 83.2
114 Florida International 81.4 85.6 82.0 83.0
115 Marshall 81.1 84.7 81.7 82.5
116 North Texas 81.0 83.8 81.5 82.1
117 Massachusetts 79.8 85.3 80.7 81.9
118 Georgia St. 79.2 83.4 81.2 81.3
119 Hawaii 80.9 80.5 80.6 80.7
120 Rice 76.8 83.0 77.3 79.0
121 Charlotte 76.7 82.2 77.4 78.8
122 Fresno St. 77.2 80.6 76.9 78.2
123 Buffalo 75.8 81.9 76.3 78.0
124 Florida Atlantic 75.2 79.9 77.6 77.6
125 New Mexico St. 74.7 77.6 75.7 76.0
126 UTEP 70.9 75.8 72.1 73.0
127 UL-Monroe 70.4 75.4 71.3 72.4
128 Texas St. 62.5 65.0 63.4 63.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
Temple 108.7 108.0 109.4 108.7
Central Florida 97.9 99.1 98.7 98.6
Cincinnati 90.9 91.7 90.3 91.0
East Carolina 87.8 89.3 87.8 88.3
Connecticut 88.2 87.3 87.6 87.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 111.7 110.5 113.1 111.8
Tulsa 105.6 106.8 106.4 106.3
Navy 106.2 104.7 106.3 105.8
Memphis 105.6 103.4 104.7 104.6
SMU 95.2 94.7 97.3 95.8
Tulane 83.5 87.2 84.1 84.9
         
AAC Averages 99.3 99.3 99.7 99.4
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 127.4 121.0 126.4 124.9
Louisville 125.1 121.1 125.1 123.8
Florida St. 121.8 115.8 121.1 119.6
North Carolina St. 106.3 103.1 105.9 105.1
Wake Forest 102.2 100.3 102.5 101.7
Boston College 98.2 96.8 97.4 97.5
Syracuse 98.6 95.4 96.8 97.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.4 112.9 118.3 116.5
Pittsburgh 118.1 114.0 117.5 116.5
North Carolina 118.4 112.7 118.3 116.5
Virginia Tech 116.1 114.7 116.1 115.6
Georgia Tech 110.1 106.2 109.2 108.5
Virginia 102.6 99.8 101.7 101.4
Duke 101.3 100.5 100.7 100.8
         
ACC Averages 111.7 108.2 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 124.0 122.4 123.8 123.4
Oklahoma St. 117.2 118.2 116.7 117.4
Kansas St. 109.3 111.3 109.4 110.0
West Virginia 109.7 109.2 109.2 109.4
TCU 107.9 109.4 106.9 108.1
Texas 106.8 108.3 105.8 107.0
Baylor 105.5 106.3 105.6 105.8
Iowa St. 103.4 103.2 102.6 103.1
Texas Tech 100.2 99.5 99.1 99.6
Kansas 86.4 90.5 84.3 87.1
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.4 127.0 127.7 127.4
Michigan 127.5 125.6 127.3 126.8
Penn St. 116.5 117.1 116.4 116.7
Michigan St. 107.7 106.6 106.4 106.9
Indiana 104.5 105.7 104.1 104.8
Maryland 95.4 97.7 93.6 95.6
Rutgers 87.2 85.4 85.7 86.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
Iowa 113.1 110.5 112.9 112.2
Nebraska 109.3 106.9 109.0 108.4
Northwestern 108.6 105.2 107.5 107.1
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Illinois 91.8 89.0 90.7 90.5
Purdue 90.4 88.9 89.0 89.4
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.3 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 107.0 104.8 108.3 106.7
Old Dominion 89.2 92.2 90.4 90.6
Middle Tennessee 88.3 89.9 88.5 88.9
Florida International 81.4 85.6 82.0 83.0
Marshall 81.1 84.7 81.7 82.5
Charlotte 76.7 82.2 77.4 78.8
Florida Atlantic 75.2 79.9 77.6 77.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 99.0 101.0 101.0 100.3
UTSA 86.8 92.6 89.1 89.5
Southern Mississippi 85.5 86.1 85.5 85.7
North Texas 81.0 83.8 81.5 82.1
Rice 76.8 83.0 77.3 79.0
UTEP 70.9 75.8 72.1 73.0
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 87.8 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.6 109.8 111.7 111.4
BYU 111.0 106.5 111.1 109.5
Army 89.1 95.5 90.3 91.6
Massachusetts 79.8 85.3 80.7 81.9
         
Independents Averages 98.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.8 97.4 92.5 93.9
Miami (O) 89.9 91.4 91.4 90.9
Bowling Green 86.6 87.4 86.9 87.0
Kent St. 84.1 85.6 85.0 84.9
Akron 81.4 86.6 82.2 83.4
Buffalo 75.8 81.9 76.3 78.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 112.7 112.6 114.3 113.2
Toledo 103.0 103.6 104.0 103.5
Northern Illinois 94.5 95.8 95.4 95.2
Central Michigan 93.2 95.2 93.6 94.0
Eastern Michigan 86.9 89.0 87.6 87.8
Ball St. 84.2 86.4 85.0 85.2
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 105.8 106.8 106.6 106.4
Air Force 96.0 97.8 96.1 96.6
Wyoming 95.6 95.7 96.6 96.0
Colorado St. 94.3 95.9 95.4 95.2
New Mexico 92.9 95.2 93.6 93.9
Utah St. 88.5 91.2 88.2 89.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 108.5 107.2 110.4 108.7
UNLV 86.1 88.8 86.6 87.2
Nevada 84.6 86.8 85.2 85.6
San Jose St. 84.2 84.2 84.1 84.2
Hawaii 80.9 80.5 80.6 80.7
Fresno St. 77.2 80.6 76.9 78.2
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 127.9 121.2 127.2 125.4
Washington St. 117.3 114.1 116.9 116.1
Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
Oregon 105.0 103.1 104.0 104.0
California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
Oregon St. 99.3 94.8 98.1 97.4
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.0 119.1 122.5 121.9
Colorado 119.3 114.9 119.4 117.9
Utah 112.5 107.6 111.0 110.4
UCLA 108.9 107.1 108.0 108.0
Arizona St. 102.5 100.9 101.0 101.5
Arizona 92.5 90.2 90.8 91.2
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.5 106.5 109.4 108.8
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 116.0 113.6 115.2 114.9
Florida 114.6 115.6 113.1 114.4
Georgia 108.4 107.9 107.7 108.0
Vanderbilt 104.8 101.6 103.6 103.4
Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
South Carolina 100.1 99.8 99.8 99.9
Missouri 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 137.5 130.9 137.6 135.3
LSU 123.9 119.3 123.3 122.2
Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
Texas A&M 113.4 112.0 112.8 112.7
Arkansas 112.5 108.2 111.0 110.6
Ole Miss 109.3 105.6 108.0 107.6
Mississippi St. 106.2 104.3 105.0 105.2
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.8 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.1 100.3 100.7 100.0
Arkansas St. 95.1 97.4 97.0 96.5
Troy 91.3 95.4 93.2 93.3
Georgia Southern 85.4 86.4 86.9 86.3
Idaho 83.6 88.6 85.6 85.9
South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
UL-Lafayette 81.2 85.6 82.8 83.2
Georgia St. 79.2 83.4 81.2 81.3
New Mexico St. 74.7 77.6 75.7 76.0
UL-Monroe 70.4 75.4 71.3 72.4
Texas St. 62.5 65.0 63.4 63.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.2 85.8 83.7 83.9

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 111.9 109.8 111.1 110.9
2 ACC 111.7 108.2 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.5 106.5 109.4 108.8
4 Big 12 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.1
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.3 107.0 107.0
6 AAC 99.3 99.3 99.7 99.4
7 Independents 98.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 84.5 87.8 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 82.2 85.8 83.7 83.9

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Wisconsin
6 Washington
7 Penn St.
8 USC
9 Colorado
10 Western Michigan
11 Oklahoma
12 Louisville
13 Florida St.
14 Auburn
15 Boise St.
16 Florida
17 Nebraska
18 Washington St.
19 Stanford
20 Oklahoma St.
21 Texas A&M
22 Tennessee
23 Houston
24 South Florida
25 LSU
26 West Virginia
27 North Carolina
28 Virginia Tech
29 Pittsburgh
30 Miami (Fla)
31 Navy
32 Utah
33 Iowa
34 Temple
35 San Diego St.
36 Tulsa
37 Arkansas
38 Toledo
39 BYU
40 Minnesota
41 Kansas St.
42 Georgia
43 Western Kentucky
44 Appalachian St.
45 Georgia Tech
46 Ole Miss
47 Troy
48 Wyoming
49 Memphis
50 Louisiana Tech
51 Northwestern
52 Baylor
53 TCU
54 Air Force
55 UCLA
56 Indiana
57 Oregon
58 Colorado St.
59 Kentucky
60 Central Florida
61 Arizona St.
62 Vanderbilt
63 Texas
64 Arkansas St.
65 North Carolina St.
66 Wake Forest
67 South Carolina
68 Old Dominion
69 Notre Dame
70 California
71 New Mexico
72 Mississippi St.
73 Maryland
74 Ohio
75 SMU
76 Idaho
77 Boston College
78 Duke
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Middle Tennessee
81 Oregon St.
82 Texas Tech
83 Michigan St.
84 Syracuse
85 Central Michigan
86 Iowa St.
87 Missouri
88 Army
89 UTSA
90 Miami (O)
91 Northern Illinois
92 South Alabama
93 Illinois
94 Cincinnati
95 Georgia Southern
96 Arizona
97 Akron
98 Utah St.
99 Southern Miss.
100 Hawaii
101 UNLV
102 Virginia
103 North Texas
104 UL-Lafayette
105 East Carolina
106 Tulane
107 Purdue
108 Ball St.
109 Rutgers
110 Bowling Green
111 San Jose St.
112 UL-Monroe
113 Kent St.
114 Georgia St.
115 Connecticut
116 Nevada
117 Kansas
118 Charlotte
119 New Mexico St.
120 Florida Int’l.
121 Marshall
122 Rice
123 Massachusetts
124 Florida Atlantic
125 UTEP
126 Texas St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Buffalo

This Week’s Spreads

November 22-26
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 22
Ohio U Akron 12.4 12.8 12.3
Miami (O) Ball St. 8.2 7.5 8.9
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan -3.8 -3.7 -3.5
         
Thanksgiving Day, November 24
Texas A&M LSU -7.5 -4.3 -7.5
         
Black Friday, November 25
Kent St. Northern Illinois -7.9 -7.7 -8.9
North Carolina North Carolina St. 13.6 11.1 13.9
Memphis Houston -3.1 -4.1 -5.4
Bowling Green Buffalo 13.8 8.5 13.6
Missouri Arkansas -11.1 -7.7 -3.3
Washington St. Washington -8.1 -4.6 -7.8
Air Force Boise St. -6.8 -6.0 -7.5
Texas TCU 0.9 0.9 0.9
Iowa Nebraska 6.8 6.6 6.9
Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech -13.5 -11.9 -15.5
Western Michigan Toledo 12.7 12.0 13.3
Texas Tech Baylor -2.3 -3.8 -3.5
Tulsa Cincinnati 17.7 18.1 19.1
Arizona Arizona St. -8.0 -8.7 -8.2
         
Saturday, November 26
Georgia Georgia Tech 0.3 3.7 0.5
Louisville Kentucky 25.2 20.6 25.7
Kansas St. Kansas 24.4 22.3 26.6
Maryland Rutgers 11.2 15.3 10.9
Ohio St. Michigan 2.9 4.4 3.4
Indiana Purdue 16.1 18.8 17.1
Northwestern Illinois 18.3 17.7 18.3
South Florida Central Florida 13.9 10.8 13.6
Virginia Tech Virginia 15.0 16.4 15.9
UL-Lafayette Arkansas St. -11.4 -9.3 -11.9
Pittsburgh Syracuse 22.5 21.6 23.7
Wake Forest Boston College 7.0 6.5 8.1
Miami (Fla.) Duke 20.1 15.4 20.6
Old Dominion Florida Int’l. 10.3 9.1 10.9
Fresno St. San Jose St. -4.5 -1.1 -4.7
Ole Miss Mississippi St. 5.1 3.3 5.0
Alabama Auburn 19.2 14.4 19.5
USC Notre Dame 14.4 12.3 13.8
SMU Navy -8.0 -7.0 -7.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -3.3 -3.0 -3.6
Penn St. Michigan St. 11.8 13.5 13.0
Wisconsin Minnesota 14.6 13.7 15.6
Idaho South Alabama 4.5 3.2 5.7
Texas St. Troy -26.3 -27.9 -27.3
New Mexico St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -19.7 -22.0
Connecticut Tulane 7.7 3.1 6.5
Oregon St. Oregon -3.2 -5.8 -3.4
UNLV Nevada 3.5 4.0 1.4
UTEP North Texas -8.1 -6.0 -7.4
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic 16.1 13.0 13.9
Marshall Western Kentucky -22.9 -17.1 -23.6
UTSA Charlotte 13.1 13.4 14.7
California UCLA -5.1 -9.6 -6.6
Colorado Utah 9.8 10.3 11.4
Clemson South Carolina 29.3 23.2 29.6
Vanderbilt Tennessee -10.2 -11.0 -10.6
Temple East Carolina 23.9 21.7 24.6
Stanford Rice 42.1 29.6 41.1
Florida St. Florida 9.2 2.2 10.0
San Diego St. Colorado St. 17.2 16.3 18.0
New Mexico Wyoming 0.3 2.5 0.1
BYU Utah St. 24.5 17.3 24.9
Hawaii Massachusetts 5.1 -0.8 3.9

Bowl Projections

This week, we project just 74 teams becoming bowl eligible, which means six teams would need to be picked as non bowl-eligible alternates.  Three of those teams could be 6-6 Army, 6-6 South Alabama, and 6-7 Hawaii.  That would leave room for three 5-7 teams.

We have a unique thought this week.  The Armed Forces Bowl could very well need to fill one of its spots with one of these alternates.  Why not take Army, since it is the Armed Forces Bowl?  The opponent would be Navy.  It is out of the ordinary for bowls to have rematch games, but in this case, if Army and Navy play a close game in Baltimore on December 10, why not have a rematch in a bowl?  In the past, LSU and Ole Miss hooked up in the Sugar Bowl after playing a close game in the regular season, as did Nebraska and Oklahoma, when they met again in the Orange Bowl.  The Rose Bowls from past years have seen multiple rematch games.

Here are our projections for this week.  Note that BYU’s bid is already secured.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Tulsa vs. Appy St.
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC South Florida vs. Toledo
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. * BYU *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Boise St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Temple vs. Ohio U
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {Army}
Dollar General MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Idaho
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Central Florida vs. {Vanderbilt}
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten {Boston College} vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND Ole Miss vs. {Oregon}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC Wake Forest vs. Memphis
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Washington St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. {Hawaii}
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 North Carolina vs. Kansas St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. Stanford
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC {South Alabama} vs. Kentucky
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. Arkansas
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC North Texas vs. Colorado St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Georgia
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Michigan
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Texas A&M
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. LSU
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Clemson vs. Ohio St.
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Washington
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Tennessee
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Clemson
           
           
* Team * This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team] At-Large Selection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 13, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 15-19, 2016

After one of the most contentious elections in over 100 years, the college football world decided to make Tuesday’s vote of the College Football Playoff Committee just as controversial before it can be released.

Truth be told, there only needs to be two playoff bids issued this year. The first one should go to Alabama as the number one seed, and the second one should go to the College All-Star Team as the number two seed. This Crimson Tide team has the look of one of John Wooden’s UCLA basketball teams during the Alcindor-Walton years. Coach Nick Saban’s team has pulled away from the pack now that Clemson, Michigan, and Washington fell Saturday.

There is still a lot to be decided, and there are some interesting scenarios left before four teams can earn golden tickets in December. Let’s take a look at each conference.

American Athletic
Temple and South Florida are tied for first in the East at 5-1 with Central Florida a game back at 4-2. Temple has the inside track to take the divisional crown, as the Owls have a road game against Tulane and a home game with East Carolina left on their schedule and hold the tiebreaker over the both contenders.

Navy leads the West and must lose to both East Carolina and SMU in order for either Houston or Tulsa to win the division. Memphis and Tulsa have such slim chances of winning the division in a multiple tie that it is not worth mentioning all the possibilities that must happen to make it real.

Atlantic Coast
Clemson’s loss to Pittsburgh is not enough to push Louisville over the top in the Atlantic Division. The Cardinals need for Wake Forest to upset the Tigers this weekend, and that is not likely to happen. Louisville could profit off a Clemson loss in the ACC Championship Game. If the Cardinals win out and CU loses again, UL could move into the playoffs without appearing in a championship game.

The Coastal Division did not change even though the two co-leaders were both upset. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are tied at 5-2. If the two stay tied at either 6-2 or 5-3, then the Hokies win the tiebreaker. Pittsburgh and Miami can both get to 5-3, but Virginia Tech wins any and all tiebreakers against any possible 5-3 opponent.

Big 12
Oklahoma leads at 7-0, but Oklahoma State and West Virginia both have just one conference loss and are still alive in the conference championship race. The Sooners close with West Virginia in Morgantown and Oklahoma State in Norman.

The three teams cannot finished tied at 8-1, because with the Sooners playing both one-loss teams, one of the three teams must lose a second conference game. There is a scenario where all three teams could finish tied with two losses, but it is not all that likely. If Oklahoma loses to both contenders to drop to 7-2, and if Oklahoma State loses at TCU this weekend, while West Virginia loses at Iowa State, then OSU will be the Big 12 Champion.

Big Ten
Oh, did this past weekend really throw a monkey wrench into the workings. With Iowa beating Michigan, it opened up the possibility that Penn State could sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game as East Division champ. If the Nittany Lions win out against Rutgers and Michigan State, and if Ohio State beats Michigan, then Coach James Franklin will lead Penn State to Indianapolis on December 3. Whether Ohio State can win out to finish 11-1, miss the conference title game, and still get a bid to the Playoffs is unsure.

In the West, there are even more possible scenarios than in the East. Wisconsin is the only divisionteam that controls its own destiny. If the Badgers beat Purdue and Minnesota , they go to Indy. If UW loses a game, and Nebraska beats Maryland and Iowa, the Cornhuskers take the flag. Then, there is the possibility that if both Wisconsin and Nebraska lose, there are scenarios where Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern could make it to the Championship Game.

Conference USA
The two division races are basically decided after the two division leaders won on Saturday. Western Kentucky has one game left at Marshall on November 26. If the 6-1 Hilltoppers win that game, they are East Champs. If WKU falls in Huntington, then Old Dominion can win the division title by closing with wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida International.

Louisiana Tech clinched the West with their win over UTSA Saturday. The Bulldogs have won seven games in a row after starting the year at 1-3, including pinning the lone conference loss on WKU.

Mid-American
You probably haven’t followed the race in the MAC East much this year, because the other division has gotten all the headlines. However, one of the wackiest ever races in the history of college football could be taking place on this side of the league. There is a chance that a team that began the year losing its first six games, including a home loss to Eastern Illinois, could find itself in the MAC Championship Game! Miami of Ohio was 0-6 after losing big at Akron in early October. Since then, the Redhawks have reeled off five consecutive wins and will become bowl eligible if they beat Ball State a week from Tuesday.

Ohio has the inside advantage to winning the East Division, but should the Bobcats end the year by losing at Central Michigan (who needs to win to become bowl eligible) and at home to Akron (who will need to win to become bowl eligible), then Miami will earn the right to play the behemoth in the other division.

That behemoth is Western Michigan, the number 14 team in this week’s AP Poll and current leader of the pack among the Group of 5 leagues for the Cotton Bowl bid. Before we annoint the Broncos into the Dallas classic, they must beat Toledo on Black Friday and then win the MAC Championship Game. If Toledo wins out over Ball State and WMU, then the Rockets will play in the conference title game.

Mountain West
The Mountain Division race became a bit cloudier after Wyoming lost at UNLV on Saturday. There is now a three-way tie with the Cowboys, New Mexico, and Boise State. At the moment, Boise has the clearest path to the division flag, but they must still play at Air Force. The other two contenders have tough closing schedules, as Wyoming closes with San Diego State and New Mexico, and the Lobos play at Colorado State before hosting the Cowboys. In the event there is a tie, Wyoming owns the tiebreaker over Boise State, and Boise State owns the tiebreaker over New Mexico. If the three teams finished tied with 6-2 records, it will depend on whether Wyoming’s second loss was to San Diego State or New Mexico that determines who gets the nod.

There is no trouble about the West Division race. SDSU wrapped it up about the time the Cubs won the World Series. The Aztecs will be the only division team to become bowl eligible, unless UNLV can upset Boise State and beat Nevada.

Pac-12
There is very little chance that a Pac-12 team will make the Playoffs this year after Washington fell to USC. The contending teams are now playing for a trip to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl.

In the North, it is now Washington State in the lead, but that lead could be short-lived. After winning eight consecutive games for the first time since 1930, the Cougars close with games at Colorado and at home against Washington. The game in Boulder is now the tougher game of the two, as we believe Coach Mike Leach’s club will top the Huskies in the Apple Cup game at beautiful Martin Stadium. Washington can still win the division flag by winning in the Palouse on Black Friday.

Colorado has a half-game lead over USC in the South, but the Trojans hold the tiebreaker over the Buffs should the two teams tie. CU closes with home games against WSU and Utah, and Coach Mike MacIntyre would have to become one of the leading candidates for National Coach of the Year, should CU win both of these games and claim the South crown after being picked last in the preseason.

Don’t forget Utah just yet. The Utes are a game back at 5-2 and host Oregon before heading to Boulder a week later. If Utah beats the Ducks and then knocks off CU, the Utes would own the tiebreaker over a 7-2 CU and 7-2 USC.

USC can win the South by beating UCLA this week and then hoping that both CU and Utah lose a game. One of the other two must lose because they face off, but the winner of that game will have to lose this week as well.

Southeastern
The only race is in the East, and it is now a two-team race between Florida and Tennessee. If the Gators beat LSU this weekend, they are in the SEC Championship Game for a second consecutive year. If LSU wins, and then Tennessee beats Missouri and Vanderbilt, the Vols will head to the Championship Game.

Alabama has already wrapped up the SEC West, and if they win out, they will be the heaviest favorite in the three-year existence of the Playoffs. A 15-0 Crimson Tide National Champion would have to rank up there with Miami of 2001, Nebraska of 1971 and 1995, USC of 1932 and 1972, and Army of 1944 and 1945 as the best team of all time.

Sunbelt
If you think Louisville deserves a shot at the College Football Playoffs with an 11-1 record and the lone loss at Clemson in a game that went to the final minute, then what about Troy? Troy could also finish 11-1 with its lone loss at Clemson in a game that came down to the final minute. The Trojans debuted in the AP Top 25 this week, but don’t expect this team to make it to an New Year’s 6 Bowl game, even if they win out. Western Michigan, San Diego State, and Boise State must all lose a game before Troy has a chance, and if Houston beats Louisville, the Cougars will top the Trojans as well.

Troy still has three games left on its schedule, and one of those three is a home game Thursday night against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are still undefeated in conference play, so the conference championship will be up for grabs this week.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.0 131.4 138.1 135.8
2 Ohio St. 128.9 128.3 129.5 128.9
3 Michigan 129.2 126.9 129.2 128.4
4 Louisville 129.4 125.0 129.6 128.0
5 Washington 128.0 121.0 127.4 125.5
6 Clemson 127.4 120.7 126.3 124.8
7 LSU 126.3 121.2 125.9 124.5
8 Oklahoma 121.1 119.6 120.8 120.5
9 USC 122.4 117.4 120.7 120.2
10 Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
11 Wisconsin 119.3 116.8 120.0 118.7
12 Florida St. 120.2 114.1 119.5 117.9
13 Washington St. 118.5 115.2 118.3 117.4
14 Colorado 117.8 113.5 117.7 116.4
15 North Carolina 118.2 112.5 118.1 116.3
16 Miami 118.1 112.5 117.8 116.1
17 Virginia Tech 115.9 114.6 115.9 115.5
18 Penn St. 115.0 115.9 114.8 115.2
19 Oklahoma St. 114.8 115.8 114.2 114.9
20 Texas A&M 115.6 113.7 115.0 114.8
21 Tennessee 115.7 113.2 114.8 114.6
22 Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
23 Pittsburgh 115.0 110.9 114.2 113.4
24 Western Michigan 112.7 112.3 114.3 113.1
25 Florida 112.2 113.7 110.5 112.1
26 Utah 114.1 108.8 112.7 111.9
27 West Virginia 112.1 111.5 111.7 111.8
28 Notre Dame 112.8 109.9 111.9 111.5
29 Ole Miss 112.6 108.6 111.4 110.9
30 TCU 110.6 112.1 109.7 110.8
31 Iowa 111.6 109.2 111.3 110.7
32 Texas 110.0 111.0 109.2 110.1
33 San Diego St. 109.7 108.2 111.8 109.9
34 South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
35 Georgia 109.8 108.9 109.1 109.3
36 Northwestern 110.8 107.0 109.9 109.2
37 Arkansas 111.2 106.8 109.5 109.2
38 UCLA 110.0 108.3 109.3 109.2
39 BYU 110.6 105.3 110.5 108.8
40 Baylor 108.4 109.0 108.7 108.7
41 Georgia Tech 109.9 105.9 108.9 108.2
42 Nebraska 109.1 106.5 108.8 108.1
43 Houston 107.9 107.1 109.1 108.0
44 Kansas St. 106.9 109.1 106.8 107.6
45 Temple 107.2 106.4 107.7 107.1
46 Boise St. 106.1 107.0 107.0 106.7
47 Mississippi St. 107.5 105.7 106.5 106.6
48 Western Kentucky 106.7 104.5 108.0 106.4
49 North Carolina St. 106.6 103.5 106.4 105.5
50 Michigan St. 105.9 105.0 104.3 105.1
51 Minnesota 105.5 104.3 105.0 104.9
52 Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.8 104.8
53 Texas Tech 105.3 104.6 104.2 104.7
54 Toledo 103.2 103.7 104.2 103.7
55 Duke 103.9 103.1 103.5 103.5
56 Navy 103.7 102.1 103.6 103.2
57 Memphis 103.9 102.1 102.8 103.0
58 Oregon 103.7 102.2 102.6 102.8
59 Indiana 102.5 104.1 101.9 102.8
60 Wake Forest 102.2 100.6 102.6 101.8
61 Virginia 102.8 100.1 102.0 101.6
62 Arizona St. 102.4 101.1 100.8 101.5
63 Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
64 Vanderbilt 101.8 98.9 100.5 100.4
65 South Carolina 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.2
66 Appalachian St. 99.3 100.3 101.0 100.2
67 Louisiana Tech 98.7 100.7 100.7 100.0
68 Central Florida 99.1 100.2 100.0 99.8
69 Syracuse 99.9 96.8 98.1 98.3
70 Iowa St. 98.6 98.4 97.8 98.3
71 Missouri 98.7 97.9 98.1 98.3
72 California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
73 Air Force 96.5 98.3 96.8 97.2
74 Troy 94.1 98.2 96.2 96.2
75 Maryland 95.9 98.4 94.1 96.1
76 New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
77 SMU 95.0 94.5 97.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5
79 Oregon St. 97.3 92.8 96.0 95.4
80 Boston College 95.9 94.6 95.0 95.2
81 Wyoming 94.1 94.4 94.9 94.5
82 Ohio 92.0 97.7 92.8 94.2
83 Central Michigan 93.0 94.9 93.3 93.7
84 Arizona 94.8 92.5 93.2 93.5
85 Colorado St. 92.6 94.3 93.6 93.5
86 Cincinnati 93.1 93.5 92.7 93.1
87 Arkansas St. 91.3 93.6 93.0 92.6
88 Illinois 93.0 90.0 92.0 91.7
89 Army 88.8 95.2 90.0 91.3
90 East Carolina 90.0 91.6 90.2 90.6
91 Miami (O) 89.6 91.1 91.1 90.6
92 Connecticut 90.8 89.8 90.3 90.3
93 Old Dominion 88.7 91.7 89.7 90.0
94 Purdue 90.5 89.0 89.1 89.5
95 Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
96 Middle Tennessee 88.6 90.1 88.9 89.2
97 Kent St. 87.9 89.4 88.8 88.7
98 Georgia Southern 87.1 87.7 88.8 87.9
99 UTSA 84.9 91.2 87.2 87.8
100 Eastern Michigan 86.7 88.8 87.2 87.6
101 Rutgers 88.7 86.6 87.3 87.6
102 Southern Mississippi 87.1 87.5 87.2 87.3
103 UNLV 85.8 88.6 86.2 86.9
104 Tulane 84.7 88.5 85.5 86.2
105 Idaho 83.3 88.3 85.3 85.6
106 Nevada 84.5 86.7 85.1 85.5
107 Ball St. 84.0 86.3 84.8 85.0
108 Marshall 83.2 86.6 84.0 84.6
109 South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
110 Kansas 83.5 88.1 81.2 84.3
111 San Jose St. 84.0 84.0 83.7 83.9
112 Akron 81.2 86.4 82.0 83.2
113 Bowling Green 82.8 83.6 83.1 83.2
114 Massachusetts 80.2 86.5 81.3 82.7
115 UL-Lafayette 79.5 84.3 81.1 81.7
116 Florida International 79.6 84.0 80.0 81.2
117 North Texas 79.9 82.9 80.3 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.8 80.3 80.5 80.5
119 Georgia St. 78.0 82.6 79.8 80.1
120 Charlotte 76.7 82.3 77.3 78.8
121 Fresno St. 77.3 80.8 77.0 78.4
122 Florida Atlantic 75.7 80.4 78.3 78.1
123 Buffalo 75.8 82.2 76.3 78.1
124 Rice 75.3 81.9 75.6 77.6
125 UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.8 74.4
126 New Mexico St. 71.8 74.7 72.8 73.1
127 UL-Monroe 70.2 75.4 71.0 72.2
128 Texas St. 65.9 68.4 66.8 67.0

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
Temple 107.2 106.4 107.7 107.1
Central Florida 99.1 100.2 100.0 99.8
Cincinnati 93.1 93.5 92.7 93.1
East Carolina 90.0 91.6 90.2 90.6
Connecticut 90.8 89.8 90.3 90.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 107.9 107.1 109.1 108.0
Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.8 104.8
Navy 103.7 102.1 103.6 103.2
Memphis 103.9 102.1 102.8 103.0
SMU 95.0 94.5 97.1 95.6
Tulane 84.7 88.5 85.5 86.2
         
AAC Av