The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 6, 2014

Simper Bowl VII

Filed under: 2013 Simulated NCAA Playoffs — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 7:23 pm

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 received automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt received automatic bids if any finished in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaced the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we used an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then selected the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and gave them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seeded the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams received a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 faced off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

In the quarterfinal round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/28/2013-14-ncaa-football-computer-simulation-playoffs-quarterfinals/

 

South Carolina upset Florida St., Stanford defeated Michigan St., Oregon upset Auburn, and Missouri upset Alabama to make this the first time in the PiRate Simulation history that a top-3 seed did not make the semifinal round.

 

In the semifinals, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/01/01/pirate-ratings-computer-simulated-college-football-playoffs-semifinals/

 

Stanford defeated South Carolina and Oregon knocked off Missouri to set up an all Pac-12 North National Championship Simulation, Simper Bowl VII.

 

And without further adieu, your winner for 2013-14 is: Oregon!  The Ducks win their third consecutive Simper Bowl.

 

Final Score: Oregon 32  Stanford 10

 

Stan

Team

Ore

 

 

 

13

FD

22

 

 

 

35-88

Rushing

52-331

 

 

 

182

Passing

218

 

 

 

17-32-3

Passes

19-29-1

 

 

 

67

Play

81

 

 

 

270

Yards

549

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Stan

3

0

7

0

10

Ore

10

6

9

7

32

 

Note: Oregon lost three fumbles and had one punt blocked, which led to both of Stanford’s scores.

Advertisements

December 28, 2013

2013-14 NCAA Football Computer Simulation Playoffs–Quarterfinals

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

Today’s quarterfinal games look like this:

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

 

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

We had our first major upset in the tournament, as the Gamecocks came from behind in the fourth quarter thanks to an incredible defensive effort.

 

Final Score: South Carolina 18   Florida St. 16

 

FSU

Team

Scar

 

 

 

18

FD

15

 

 

 

31-84

Rushing

42-161

 

 

 

214

Passing

146

 

 

 

19-37-2

Passes

13-21-0

 

 

 

68

Play

63

 

 

 

298

Yards

307

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

FSU

7

6

3

0

16

Scar

0

3

3

12

18

 

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

In a match of the two teams headed to the Rose Bowl in reality, the Cardinal dominated the game for four quarters to advance to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Stanford 20  Michigan St. 10

 

Stan

Team

MSU

 

 

 

16

FD

12

 

 

 

39-144

Rushing

33-128

 

 

 

191

Passing

152

 

 

 

17-27-0

Passes

16-28-1

 

 

 

66

Play

61

 

 

 

335

Yards

280

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Stan

3

3

7

7

20

MSU

0

0

10

0

10

 

 

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

In a nip and tuck offensive explosion, the Ducks wiped out the other top seed, preventing the actual national championship contenders from advancing to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Oregon 52  Auburn 49

 

Aub

Team

Ore

 

 

 

26

FD

23

 

 

 

55-297

Rushing

43-224

 

 

 

223

Passing

309

 

 

 

19-29-1

Passes

21-34-0

 

 

 

84

Play

77

 

 

 

520

Yards

533

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Aub

14

21

7

7

49

Ore

10

14

21

7

52

 

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

Alabama mounted a huge 2nd half comeback to force overtime, but a missed extra point cost the Tide and the Tigers advanced to the semis.

 

Final Score: Missouri 24 Alabama 23 ot

 

Ala

Team

Mo

 

 

 

 

16

FD

21

 

 

 

 

34-126

Rushing

55-211

 

 

 

 

233

Passing

160

 

 

 

 

19-30-0

Passes

14-22-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

77

 

 

 

 

359

Yards

371

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Ala

0

3

0

14

6

23

MO

0

7

10

0

7

24

 

The Semifinal Round is now set.  Here are your Final Four Match-ups:

 

#4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

#6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

In the years we have simulated these playoffs, this is the lowest total of seeded teams ever to make the semifinals. Check back on New Year’s Eve to see which two teams advance to the 2014 Simper Bowl.

December 20, 2013

PiRate Ratings 2013 College Football Computer Simulation Playoffs

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

The top four seeds receive first round byes, while teams 5-12 play at neutral site bowls.

Here are the results for Round One.  Round Two will be published next Friday.  The Semifinals will be published New Year’s Eve, and the Championship Game will be published Friday, January 3.

# 5 Michigan St. 12-1 vs. #12 Central Florida 11-1

 

Michigan St. 20  Central Florida 10

 

Mich St.

Team

Cent. Fla

 

 

 

17

FD

14

 

 

 

35-138

Rushing

24-87

 

 

 

223

Passing

239

 

 

 

21-38-0

Passes

25-42-3

 

 

 

73

Play

66

 

 

 

361

Yards

326

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Mich St.

3

7

0

10

20

Cent. Fla

0

0

7

3

10

 

 

#6 Missouri 11-2 vs. #11 Oklahoma 10-2

 

Missouri 44 Oklahoma 35

 

Missouri

Team

Oklahoma

 

 

 

22

FD

25

 

 

 

45-188

Rushing

44-218

 

 

 

251

Passing

209

 

 

 

18-31-1

Passes

19-34-1

 

 

 

76

Play

78

 

 

 

439

Yards

427

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Missouri

13

14

7

10

44

Oklahoma

7

14

0

14

35

 

 

#7 Ohio St. 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 10-2

 

Oregon 48  Ohio St. 29

 

Ohio St.

Team

Oregon

 

 

 

21

FD

24

 

 

 

41-179

Rushing

51-275

 

 

 

221

Passing

286

 

 

 

17-28-1

Passes

22-34-0

 

 

 

69

Play

85

 

 

 

400

Yards

561

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Ohio St.

10

6

6

7

29

Oregon

11

20

14

3

48

 

 

#8 South Carolina vs. #9 Baylor

 

South Carolina 34  Baylor 19

 

S Car

Team

Bay

 

 

 

19

FD

22

 

 

 

47-197

Rushing

32-79

 

 

 

127

Passing

241

 

 

 

12-19-0

Passes

23-43-3

 

 

 

66

Play

75

 

 

 

324

Yards

320

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

S Car

10

10

7

7

34

Bay

7

9

0

3

19

 

 

The Elite Eight Schedule

#1 Florida St. 13-0 vs. #8 South Carolina 11-2

#2 Auburn 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 11-2

#3 Alabama 11-1 vs. #6 Missouri 12-2

#4 Stanford 11-2 vs. #5 Michigan St. 13-1

 

Blog at WordPress.com.