PiRate Ratings College Football National Championship

Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia	T C U	8.6	8.7	9.0

Note: NFL Ratings and Spreads will be delayed until Tuesday due to the unfortunate incident in Cincinnati.

PiRate Ratings College Football Championship Game Spreads

Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	Georgia	-1.5	-2.3	-2.1

NCAA FBS Football Championship Spreads

Jan 11	Championship
Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	Ohio St.	6.2	7.6	5.8

PiRate Ratings Selections for The College Football National Championship Game & The NFL Wildcard Playoff Round

Final Land Sharp Selections

The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends.  Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season.  It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.

Now, here’s something else you should know.  If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright.  We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.

If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall!  Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it.  The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset.  If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars.  WOW!

Now, to make it even better.  Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%!  Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?

Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game.  Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:

Alabama – 5.5

Clemson +7

Over 59.5

Under 60 

 

Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat

Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points

Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13

 

Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13

One Land Sharp took the UNDER

Stewed Meat

 

As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence.  As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.

 

The PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Playoff Teasers

Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit.  We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.

We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round.  One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals.  These parlays both have 12-10 odds.

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Indianapolis	Houston	12	Houston
Dallas	Seattle	15	Seattle
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	16	L.A. Chargers
Chicago	Philadelphia	19.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	Indianapolis	61.5	UNDER
Dallas	Seattle	30	OVER
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	28.5	OVER
Chicago	Philadelphia	28	OVER

 

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football National Championship Game Preview

2017-18 College Football National Championship Game

#3 Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) vs. #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

Date: Monday, January 8, 2018

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: ESPN

Announcers: Chris Fowler–Play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit–Color commentary, Maria Taylor–Sideline, Tom Rinaldi–Sideline

Radio: ESPN

Announcers: Sean McDonough–Play-by-play, Todd Blackledge–Color commentary, Holly Rowe–Sideline, Ian Fitzsimmons–Sideline

Officiating: Big Ten Staff

Las Vegas Line (as of Tuesday, January 2, 2018, 4:00 PM EST

Spread: Alabama by 4 1/2

Money line: Alabama -200,  Georgia +170

Total: 45 1/2

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 6.5

Mean: Alabama by 3.7

Bias: Alabama by 4.8

Reasonable Expected Score: Alabama 31  Georgia 26

100 Computer Simulations

Wins: Alabama 68  Georgia 32

Average Score: Alabama 33  Georgia 27

Outlier ALA: Alabama 38  Georgia 9

Outlier GA: Georgia 27  Alabama 16 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Ohio	-10.3	-9.0	-10.9
Kent St.	Central Michigan	-18.5	-17.4	-19.0
Bowling Green	Toledo	-17.1	-16.1	-18.2
Miami (O)	Eastern Michigan	-4.6	-2.7	-3.9
Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	1.2	1.9	1.4
Ball St.	Buffalo	-16.9	-17.1	-18.3
South Florida	Tulsa	18.3	17.4	19.4
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	7.0	5.8	6.8
New Mexico	UNLV	1.8	0.1	2.4
Indiana	Rutgers	8.3	9.0	8.7
Georgia	Kentucky	19.6	20.5	20.7
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-3.0	-3.2	-4.3
Duke	Georgia Tech	-7.3	-5.2	-7.3
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	17.3	16.8	17.6
Temple	Central Florida	-15.1	-16.0	-15.9
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	-2.4	-3.5	-2.5
Louisville	Syracuse	6.2	6.8	6.7
Northwestern	Minnesota	7.8	5.8	8.5
Michigan St.	Maryland	9.6	9.2	11.4
West Virginia	Texas	2.3	2.3	2.3
Kansas	Oklahoma	-40.0	-35.4	-42.2
Wyoming	Fresno St.	8.6	8.2	7.4
Boise St.	Air Force	17.1	15.2	17.3
Utah St.	Hawaii	12.0	10.2	11.9
Old Dominion	Rice	14.6	15.6	14.7
Southern Miss.	Charlotte	15.0	13.8	15.2
BYU	Massachusetts	3.3	4.0	2.7
UTEP	Louisiana Tech	-14.5	-13.4	-15.0
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	-9.1	-9.7	-9.9
Texas Tech	TCU	-11.5	-9.8	-12.3
Iowa	Purdue	13.0	12.9	12.2
Oregon	Arizona	0.6	0.5	0.4
Ohio St.	Illinois	46.7	43.4	48.1
Florida	UAB	27.3	23.8	24.4
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-7.9	-7.5	-9.1
Memphis	SMU	13.2	12.2	13.4
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia	27.4	26.4	26.8
Baylor	Iowa St.	-11.6	-10.3	-12.7
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	-12.9	-13.5	-13.5
Vanderbilt	Missouri	-6.6	-5.4	-7.2
Washington	Utah	25.1	21.7	25.4
Auburn	UL-Monroe	49.5	46.6	50.5
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	16.5	15.4	17.3
Colorado St.	San Jose St.	35.2	33.9	35.9
Penn St.	Nebraska	32.1	29.9	33.3
Tennessee	LSU	-14.4	-13.8	-16.5
Notre Dame	Navy	20.9	18.7	21.3
Tulane	Houston	-7.7	-6.9	-7.7
UL-Lafayatte	New Mexico St.	-2.4	0.6	-2.7
Idaho	Coastal Carolina	13.8	13.6	13.9
North Texas	Army	-12.1	-10.2	-11.8
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	24.2	23.1	26.0
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	13.4	15.1	14.2
Boston College (n)	Connecticut	26.7	24.4	26.5
UTSA	Marshall	0.3	1.3	-0.5
Ole Miss	Texas A&M	-1.0	-0.4	-1.3
Wisconsin	Michigan	11.1	8.6	10.6
USC	UCLA	17.8	17.5	18.3
Stanford	California	16.9	17.3	18.3
San Diego St.	Nevada	16.1	14.2	15.8

FBS vs. FCS Games

Home	Visitor	PiRate
Clemson	Citadel	50.0
Alabama	Mercer	49.0
Florida St.	Delaware St.	50.0
North Carolina	Western Carolina	24.0
South Carolina	Wofford	27.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Miami (Fla)
3	Clemson
4	Wisconsin
5	Oklahoma
6	Georgia
7	Ohio St.
8	Central Florida
9	Notre Dame
10	Penn St.
11	Auburn
12	USC
13	Oklahoma St.
14	Michigan
15	TCU
16	Washington
17	Washington St.
18	Mississippi St.
19	North Carolina St.
20	Memphis
21	Virginia Tech
22	Michigan St.
23	Stanford
24	Iowa
25	Boise St.
26	LSU
27	Northwestern
28	Wake Forest
29	Iowa St.
30	South Florida
31	Arizona
32	South Carolina
33	West Virginia
34	Georgia Tech
35	Boston College
36	San Diego St.
37	Toledo
38	Houston
39	Louisville
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	Navy
43	Florida Atlantic
44	Kentucky
45	Army
46	Arizona St.
47	Ohio
48	Oregon
49	Florida St.
50	Northern Illinois
51	SMU
52	UCLA
53	Texas Tech
54	Troy
55	Missouri
56	Utah
57	California
58	Syracuse
59	Fresno St.
60	Wyoming
61	Marshall
62	Purdue
63	Virginia
64	Minnesota
65	Ole Miss
66	Kansas St.
67	Indiana
68	North Texas
69	Maryland
70	Western Michigan
71	Florida
72	Colorado
73	Nebraska
74	Colorado St.
75	Duke
76	Central Michigan
77	Pittsburgh
78	Temple
79	Tennessee
80	Arkansas St.
81	Rutgers
82	Utah St.
83	Arkansas
84	Florida Int’l.
85	UAB
86	Vanderbilt
87	Tulane
88	Akron
89	Southern Miss.
90	Appalachian St.
91	North Carolina
92	Georgia St.
93	Air Force
94	Middle Tennessee
95	Eastern Michigan
96	Buffalo
97	Miami (O)
98	UTSA
99	Cincinnati
100	Louisiana Tech
101	Western Kentucky
102	Tulsa
103	UNLV
104	New Mexico St.
105	South Alabama
106	Connecticut
107	Old Dominion
108	BYU
109	UL-Monroe
110	Baylor
111	Massachusetts
112	Illinois
113	Nevada
114	UL-Lafayette
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	Oregon St.
118	East Carolina
119	Bowling Green
120	Hawaii
121	Kent St.
122	Kansas
123	Ball St.
124	Rice
125	Charlotte
126	Texas St.
127	Coastal Carolina
128	Georgia Southern
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

 

 

PiRate Predictive Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	137.6	134.0	136.4	136.0
2	Ohio St.	132.7	130.4	133.1	132.1
3	Auburn	129.0	126.9	129.3	128.4
4	Clemson	128.1	125.6	127.6	127.1
5	Penn St.	126.6	125.2	127.1	126.3
6	Washington	126.8	124.3	126.9	126.0
7	Georgia	125.5	125.6	125.6	125.6
8	Miami	126.3	124.4	125.7	125.5
9	Oklahoma	125.0	123.7	125.8	124.8
10	Oklahoma St.	123.1	122.2	123.7	123.0
11	Wisconsin	123.8	121.2	122.6	122.6
12	Stanford	120.2	118.5	119.7	119.5
13	U S C	119.7	118.8	119.5	119.3
14	Virginia Tech	119.6	118.9	119.5	119.3
15	T C U	118.6	116.9	118.9	118.1
16	Notre Dame	118.2	116.8	118.7	117.9
17	L S U	117.5	115.3	117.8	116.9
18	N. Carolina St.	116.9	116.1	116.9	116.6
19	Michigan	115.7	115.7	115.0	115.5
20	Florida St.	116.2	115.3	114.7	115.4
21	Mississippi St.	114.5	114.5	114.6	114.5
22	Georgia Tech	115.5	113.0	114.3	114.3
23	Washington St.	114.9	112.7	114.5	114.0
24	Central Florida	112.7	114.1	113.8	113.6
25	Iowa State	112.6	112.6	113.7	113.0
26	Iowa	112.9	113.0	112.3	112.8
27	Texas	112.1	112.4	112.6	112.4
28	Louisville	112.3	111.4	112.1	111.9
29	Wake Forest	112.5	110.6	112.5	111.8
30	West Virginia	111.4	111.7	111.9	111.7
31	Northwestern	110.4	109.3	110.3	110.0
32	South Florida	110.1	109.0	110.7	109.9
33	Boston College	109.9	109.6	109.9	109.8
34	Kansas St.	109.6	109.8	109.4	109.6
35	Memphis	108.8	108.1	109.4	108.7
36	S. Carolina	109.1	108.1	108.3	108.5
37	Arizona	109.2	107.6	108.4	108.4
38	Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.4	108.4
39	Kentucky	109.0	108.0	107.9	108.3
40	Texas A&M	109.1	107.1	108.3	108.2
41	Missouri	108.5	106.6	107.8	107.6
42	Boise St.	107.0	105.5	107.2	106.6
43	Oregon	106.8	105.0	105.9	105.9
44	Florida	106.2	105.6	105.4	105.7
45	Minnesota	105.6	106.5	104.8	105.6
46	Michigan St.	104.9	105.8	106.0	105.6
47	Arizona St.	105.8	104.9	105.4	105.4
48	Duke	105.7	105.3	104.5	105.2
49	Pittsburgh	105.3	105.1	104.9	105.1
50	Colorado	106.2	104.8	104.2	105.0
51	Utah	104.7	105.5	104.5	104.9
52	Texas Tech	104.6	104.5	104.1	104.4
53	Ole Miss	105.1	103.7	104.0	104.3
54	California	104.8	102.7	102.9	103.5
55	Houston	103.4	103.0	103.6	103.3
56	Indiana	102.9	103.1	103.2	103.1
57	Purdue	102.9	103.1	103.1	103.0
58	U C L A	103.4	102.8	102.7	103.0
59	San Diego St.	102.0	101.9	102.9	102.3
60	Virginia	101.8	101.0	101.9	101.6
61	N. Carolina	102.1	101.2	101.2	101.5
62	Toledo	100.7	100.8	102.4	101.3
63	Colo. State	101.5	100.5	101.3	101.1
64	Army	100.9	100.6	101.4	101.0
65	Navy	100.3	101.1	100.4	100.6
66	Wyoming	100.7	99.4	100.0	100.0
67	Ohio U	99.1	100.2	100.2	99.8
68	Vanderbilt	99.9	99.1	98.7	99.2
69	Florida Atlantic	98.0	100.0	99.5	99.2
70	Tennessee	100.1	98.5	98.3	99.0
71	SMU	98.5	98.9	99.0	98.8
72	Maryland	98.3	99.6	97.6	98.5
73	Baylor	98.0	99.4	98.0	98.5
74	Arkansas	98.6	97.9	98.1	98.2
75	Western Michigan	97.7	96.8	98.6	97.7
76	Nebraska	97.5	98.3	96.8	97.5
77	Rutgers	97.6	97.1	97.5	97.4
78	Northern Illinois	95.9	95.8	97.0	96.2
79	Eastern Michigan	95.8	95.8	96.2	95.9
80	Arkansas St.	94.5	95.7	95.7	95.3
81	Troy	95.2	95.4	94.8	95.1
82	Central Michigan	94.7	95.1	95.5	95.1
83	Fresno St.	95.0	94.2	95.6	95.0
84	Temple	94.6	95.1	95.0	94.9
85	Tulsa	94.8	94.6	94.3	94.6
86	Oregon St.	94.8	94.5	93.3	94.2
87	Air Force	92.8	93.3	92.9	93.0
88	Tulane	92.7	93.1	92.9	92.9
89	Appalachian St.	93.3	92.1	93.1	92.8
90	Marshall	91.8	93.0	93.5	92.8
91	Utah St.	92.6	91.8	92.2	92.2
92	W. Kentucky	90.7	90.8	91.5	91.0
93	U T S A	89.1	91.4	90.0	90.1
94	Massachusetts	90.3	89.5	90.6	90.1
95	BYU	90.1	90.0	89.8	89.9
96	Nevada	88.9	90.7	90.2	89.9
97	Miami (O)	88.6	90.7	89.8	89.7
98	Illinois	89.0	90.0	88.0	89.0
99	Cincinnati	87.9	89.5	89.0	88.8
100	Akron	86.8	89.2	87.3	87.8
101	N. Mexico St.	87.6	86.0	87.9	87.2
102	Buffalo	85.6	87.8	87.6	87.0
103	Middle Tennessee	86.3	87.5	87.2	87.0
104	U N L V	86.1	87.6	86.1	86.6
105	N. Texas	85.8	87.4	86.5	86.6
106	S. Alabama	85.7	87.7	85.9	86.4
107	Louisiana Tech	85.6	87.4	86.2	86.4
108	Florida Int’l.	86.0	86.4	86.8	86.4
109	New Mexico	84.9	84.7	85.5	85.0
110	Connecticut	84.2	86.2	84.3	84.9
111	Hawaii	84.6	85.6	84.3	84.8
112	Southern Miss.	84.2	85.3	84.7	84.7
113	Old Dominion	83.5	85.9	83.9	84.4
114	Georgia St.	84.0	83.8	84.0	84.0
115	UAB	81.4	84.2	83.5	83.0
116	East Carolina	82.4	83.9	82.2	82.8
117	UL-Lafayette	82.3	83.6	82.1	82.7
118	Kansas	81.9	85.3	80.6	82.6
119	UL-Monroe	82.5	83.3	81.7	82.5
120	Bowling Green	81.7	82.7	82.1	82.2
121	Idaho	81.1	82.2	81.9	81.7
122	Georgia Southern	74.6	76.0	74.0	74.9
123	Kent St.	73.7	75.2	74.0	74.3
124	Texas St.	73.4	75.5	72.7	73.9
125	Charlotte	72.2	74.5	72.4	73.0
126	Rice	71.9	73.3	72.2	72.5
127	Coastal Carolina	70.7	72.1	71.4	71.4
128	U T E P	68.6	71.5	68.7	69.6
129	San Jose St.	69.3	69.6	68.4	69.1
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.3	66.6

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	6-0	9-0	112.7	114.1	113.8	113.6
South Florida	5-1	8-1	110.1	109.0	110.7	109.9
Temple	3-3	5-5	94.6	95.1	95.0	94.9
Cincinnati	1-5	3-7	87.9	89.5	89.0	88.8
Connecticut	2-5	3-7	84.2	86.2	84.3	84.9
East Carolina	1-5	2-8	82.4	83.9	82.2	82.8
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	5-1	8-1	108.8	108.1	109.4	108.7
Houston	4-2	6-3	103.4	103.0	103.6	103.3
Navy	4-3	6-3	100.3	101.1	100.4	100.6
SMU	3-3	6-4	98.5	98.9	99.0	98.8
Tulsa	1-5	2-8	94.8	94.6	94.3	94.6
Tulane	2-4	4-6	92.7	93.1	92.9	92.9
AAC Averages			97.5	98.0	97.9	97.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	9-1	128.1	125.6	127.6	127.1
N. Carolina St.	5-1	7-3	116.9	116.1	116.9	116.6
Florida St.	3-5	3-6	116.2	115.3	114.7	115.4
Louisville	3-4	6-4	112.3	111.4	112.1	111.9
Wake Forest	3-3	6-4	112.5	110.6	112.5	111.8
Boston College	3-4	5-5	109.9	109.6	109.9	109.8
Syracuse	2-4	4-6	109.1	107.6	108.4	108.4
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	6-0	9-0	126.3	124.4	125.7	125.5
Virginia Tech	3-3	7-3	119.6	118.9	119.5	119.3
Georgia Tech	4-3	5-4	115.5	113.0	114.3	114.3
Duke	1-5	4-6	105.7	105.3	104.5	105.2
Pittsburgh	2-4	4-6	105.3	105.1	104.9	105.1
Virginia	3-3	6-4	101.8	101.0	101.9	101.6
N. Carolina	1-6	2-8	102.1	101.2	101.2	101.5
ACC Averages			113.0	111.8	112.4	112.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	6-1	9-1	125.0	123.7	125.8	124.8
Oklahoma St.	5-2	8-2	123.1	122.2	123.7	123.0
T C U	5-2	8-2	118.6	116.9	118.9	118.1
Iowa State	4-3	5-5	112.6	112.6	113.7	113.0
Texas	4-3	5-5	112.1	112.4	112.6	112.4
West Virginia	5-2	7-3	111.4	111.7	111.9	111.7
Kansas St.	3-4	5-5	109.6	109.8	109.4	109.6
Texas Tech	2-5	5-5	104.6	104.5	104.1	104.4
Baylor	1-6	1-9	98.0	99.4	98.0	98.5
Kansas	0-7	1-9	81.9	85.3	80.6	82.6
Big 12 Averages			109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	6-1	8-2	132.7	130.4	133.1	132.1
Penn St.	5-2	8-2	126.6	125.2	127.1	126.3
Michigan	5-2	8-2	115.7	115.7	115.0	115.5
Michigan St.	5-2	7-3	104.9	105.8	106.0	105.6
Indiana	1-6	4-6	102.9	103.1	103.2	103.1
Maryland	2-5	4-6	98.3	99.6	97.6	98.5
Rutgers	3-4	4-6	97.6	97.1	97.5	97.4
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	7-0	10-0	123.8	121.2	122.6	122.6
Iowa	3-4	6-4	112.9	113.0	112.3	112.8
Northwestern	5-2	7-3	110.4	109.3	110.3	110.0
Minnesota	2-5	5-5	105.6	106.5	104.8	105.6
Purdue	2-5	4-6	102.9	103.1	103.1	103.0
Nebraska	3-4	4-6	97.5	98.3	96.8	97.5
Illinois	0-7	2-8	89.0	90.0	88.0	89.0
Big Ten Averages			108.6	108.4	108.4	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	6-0	7-3	98.0	100.0	99.5	99.2
Marshall	4-2	7-3	91.8	93.0	93.5	92.8
W. Kentucky	3-3	5-5	90.7	90.8	91.5	91.0
Middle Tennessee	3-3	5-5	86.3	87.5	87.2	87.0
Florida Int’l.	4-2	6-3	86.0	86.4	86.8	86.4
Old Dominion	2-4	4-6	83.5	85.9	83.9	84.4
Charlotte	1-5	1-9	72.2	74.5	72.4	73.0
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	2-4	5-4	89.1	91.4	90.0	90.1
N. Texas	6-1	7-3	85.8	87.4	86.5	86.6
Louisiana Tech	2-4	4-6	85.6	87.4	86.2	86.4
Southern Miss.	4-2	6-4	84.2	85.3	84.7	84.7
UAB	5-2	7-3	81.4	84.2	83.5	83.0
Rice	1-5	1-9	71.9	73.3	72.2	72.5
U T E P	0-6	0-10	68.6	71.5	68.7	69.6
CUSA Averages			83.9	85.6	84.8	84.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		8-2	118.2	116.8	118.7	117.9
Army		8-2	100.9	100.6	101.4	101.0
Massachusetts		3-7	90.3	89.5	90.6	90.1
BYU		3-8	90.1	90.0	89.8	89.9
Indep. Averages			99.9	99.2	100.1	99.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-1	8-2	99.1	100.2	100.2	99.8
Miami (O)	3-3	4-6	88.6	90.7	89.8	89.7
Akron	4-2	5-5	86.8	89.2	87.3	87.8
Buffalo	2-4	4-6	85.6	87.8	87.6	87.0
Bowling Green	2-4	2-8	81.7	82.7	82.1	82.2
Kent St.	1-5	2-8	73.7	75.2	74.0	74.3
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	5-1	8-2	100.7	100.8	102.4	101.3
Western Michigan	4-2	6-4	97.7	96.8	98.6	97.7
Northern Illinois	5-1	7-3	95.9	95.8	97.0	96.2
Eastern Michigan	1-5	3-7	95.8	95.8	96.2	95.9
Central Michigan	4-2	6-4	94.7	95.1	95.5	95.1
Ball St.	0-6	2-8	65.7	67.7	66.3	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	6-0	8-2	107.0	105.5	107.2	106.6
Colo. State	4-3	6-5	101.5	100.5	101.3	101.1
Wyoming	5-1	7-3	100.7	99.4	100.0	100.0
Air Force	3-3	4-6	92.8	93.3	92.9	93.0
Utah St.	3-3	5-5	92.6	91.8	92.2	92.2
New Mexico	1-5	3-7	84.9	84.7	85.5	85.0
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	4-2	8-2	102.0	101.9	102.9	102.3
Fresno St.	5-1	7-3	95.0	94.2	95.6	95.0
Nevada	2-4	2-8	88.9	90.7	90.2	89.9
U N L V	3-3	4-6	86.1	87.6	86.1	86.6
Hawaii	1-6	3-7	84.6	85.6	84.3	84.8
San Jose St.	0-6	1-10	69.3	69.6	68.4	69.1
MWC Averages			92.1	92.1	92.2	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	5-2	8-2	126.8	124.3	126.9	126.0
Stanford	6-2	7-3	120.2	118.5	119.7	119.5
Washington St.	6-2	9-2	114.9	112.7	114.5	114.0
Oregon	2-5	5-5	106.8	105.0	105.9	105.9
California	2-5	5-5	104.8	102.7	102.9	103.5
Oregon St.	0-7	1-9	94.8	94.5	93.3	94.2
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	7-1	9-2	119.7	118.8	119.5	119.3
Arizona	5-2	7-3	109.2	107.6	108.4	108.4
Arizona St.	4-3	5-5	105.8	104.9	105.4	105.4
Colorado	2-6	5-6	106.2	104.8	104.2	105.0
Utah	2-5	5-5	104.7	105.5	104.5	104.9
U C L A	3-4	5-5	103.4	102.8	102.7	103.0
Pac-12 Averages			109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	6-1	9-1	125.5	125.6	125.6	125.6
S. Carolina	5-3	7-3	109.1	108.1	108.3	108.5
Kentucky	4-3	7-3	109.0	108.0	107.9	108.3
Missouri	2-4	5-5	108.5	106.6	107.8	107.6
Florida	3-5	3-6	106.2	105.6	105.4	105.7
Vanderbilt	0-6	4-6	99.9	99.1	98.7	99.2
Tennessee	0-6	4-6	100.1	98.5	98.3	99.0
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-0	10-0	137.6	134.0	136.4	136.0
Auburn	6-1	8-2	129.0	126.9	129.3	128.4
L S U	4-2	7-3	117.5	115.3	117.8	116.9
Mississippi St.	3-3	7-3	114.5	114.5	114.6	114.5
Texas A&M	3-3	6-4	109.1	107.1	108.3	108.2
Ole Miss	2-4	5-5	105.1	103.7	104.0	104.3
Arkansas	1-5	4-6	98.6	97.9	98.1	98.2
SEC Averages			112.1	110.8	111.5	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Arkansas St.	4-1	5-3	94.5	95.7	95.7	95.3
Troy	5-1	8-2	95.2	95.4	94.8	95.1
Appalachian St.	5-1	6-4	93.3	92.1	93.1	92.8
N. Mexico St.	2-3	4-5	87.6	86.0	87.9	87.2
S. Alabama	3-3	4-6	85.7	87.7	85.9	86.4
Georgia St.	5-1	6-3	84.0	83.8	84.0	84.0
UL-Lafayette	3-2	4-5	82.3	83.6	82.1	82.7
UL-Monroe	4-3	4-5	82.5	83.3	81.7	82.5
Idaho	2-3	3-6	81.1	82.2	81.9	81.7
Georgia Southern	0-5	0-9	74.6	76.0	74.0	74.9
Texas St.	1-5	2-8	73.4	75.5	72.7	73.9
Coastal Carolina	0-6	1-9	70.7	72.1	71.4	71.4
Sun Belt Averages			83.7	84.5	83.8	84.0

Conference Ratings

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.0	111.8	112.4	112.4
2	SEC	112.1	110.8	111.5	111.5
3	BIG 12	109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
5	BIG TEN	108.6	108.4	108.4	108.5
6	INDEP.	99.9	99.2	100.1	99.7
7	AAC	97.5	98.0	97.9	97.8
8	MWC	92.1	92.1	92.2	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	83.9	85.6	84.8	84.8
11	Sun Belt	83.7	84.5	83.8	84.0

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	UAB	UL-Lafayette
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Boise St.	Arizona St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Colorado St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Houston	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	MAC	SMU	Western Mich.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Boston College]	Southern Miss.
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	Florida Atlantic	Toledo
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	Utah St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	Temple	[Florida Int’l.]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	ARMY	[Western Ky.]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Miami (O)	Appalachian St.
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Central Florida	San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	[Colorado]	UTSA
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	Virginia	[Central Mich.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	[Fresno St.]	Oregon
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Wake Forest	[Middle Tenn.]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	Georgia Tech	Iowa
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Northern Illinois]	Arizona
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	LSU
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	South Florida	Florida St.
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Michigan St.	Stanford
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	West Virginia	Washington St.
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Louisville	UCLA
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Northwestern	Kentucky
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Wyoming	Arkansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Washington
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	North Carolina St.	Missouri
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	Kansas St.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	USC	TCU
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Clemson	Penn St.
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan	Mississippi St.
Peach	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma St.	Memphis
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Ohio St.	Auburn
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Oklahoma	Miami (Fla.)
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Alabama	Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Oklahoma
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Who Should Be National Coach of the Year
If Alabama wins the National Championship this year with a perfect 15-0 record, Nick Saban would be the odds-on favorite to win the National Coach of the Year Award. Playing in a very tough SEC Western Division and adding a win over Georgia, plus two in the Playoffs, it would be hard to argue with anybody that voted Saban number one on their ballots.

However, we here at the PiRate Ratings not only do not think Saban should be the National Coach of the Year, he shouldn’t be the State of Alabama Coach of the Year!
This is not a knock against Saban. In our opinion, Saban’s coaching job this year would be the same as Swen Nater as the second best center in the nation in 1972 and 1973 when he was at UCLA (unfortunately, number one was Bill Walton).

If you are over the age of 50 like so many of our readers, you remember SMU receiving the death penalty, not being allowed to play for two years. When the Mustangs returned to college football, they suffered through years and years of very weak football seasons. It was a new century before the Mustangs finally returned to a bowl.

What would you have thought of any coach that not only could have quickly taken SMU to a bowl in its first year back in football? That SMU coach that helped bring SMU back to football was none other than the greatest offensive tackle in NFL history–Forrest Gregg.  The job was too hard, and SMU won just four games in its first three years back in business.

A similar instance has presented the college football nation with another team not playing football for two seasons before returning this year. UAB dropped football for financial reasons after finishing 6-6 in 2014. The Blazers were expected to struggle mightily in their first season back in FBS football, being lucky to win a game this year. Except, nobody told Coach Bill Clark that his team was not supposed to come within one game of the CUSA West Division title and become bowl eligible, but that is exactly where UAB sits through 10 games of the season. The Blazers are 7-3, and Clark deserves serious consideration for NCOY; nobody has done a better job than Clark.
The Conference Races & Bowl Eligibility
Around the first of February every year, college basketball fans start looking in earnest at which teams appear to be in the NCAA Tournament, which are on “the bubble,” and which appear to be headed to a lesser tournament or none at all. In the Playoff era of FBS football, somebody should start something similar. So, here is a list for each conference.

Group of 5 Conferences
American Athletic Conference
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Central Florida, South Florida, Memphis, Houston, Navy, SMU
5-Win Teams: 1 — Temple
4-Win Teams: 1 — Tulane
Bowl Tie-ins: 7
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 (but the champion is likely to receive the NY6 Bowl bid, leaving this league one team short in its needs to fill its bowl tie-ins.

Central Florida leads the race for the one New Year’s Six Bowl slot that goes to a Group of 5 team, but Memphis has just one loss (to UCF). Should the Tigers beat UCF in a rematch at the AAC Championship Game, then Memphis could take the NY6 Bowl. USF is still in contention for this spot as well.

Temple needs one more win. The Owls host Central Florida this week in what should be a trap game for the Knights. TU closes the year out with a road game against Tulsa, so Temple has a decent chance to pick up win number six in the finale.

Tulane must upset Houston and SMU to become bowl eligible, and we do not see the Green Wave toppling either team.

Conference USA
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss.
5-Win Teams: 3 — Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, UTSA
4-Win Teams: 2 — Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Florida Atlantic has a two-game lead over Marshall and FIU, and Lane Kiffin has said this is the mosr rewarding season he has experienced as a coach. North Texas has already clinched the Western Division.

The three 5-win teams have excellent chances to get to six wins, and this should give thie league multiple at-large bowl teams. There will be enough open bowls for all nine bowl-eligible teams to receive bids.

Mid-American
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan
5-Win Teams: 1 — Akron
4-Win Teams: 2 — Miami (O), Buffalo
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 or 8

Akron may or may not beat Ohio this week, but the Zips finish with Kent State, and this should Terry Bowden’s squad to earn their second bowl in three seasons.

Both Miami and Buffalo have okay chances to win their final two games and square their marks at 6-6, but we believe the better prediction would have just one of the pair going 2-0. Miami host Eastern Michigan and closes at Ball State. The Redhawks lost their first six games last year and then won six in a row to earn a bowl bid. They only needed to go 3-0 to repeat the process this year, and they got a good start by upsetting Akron.

Buffalo has to win at Ball State and then upset Ohio in the regular season finale to finish 6-6. If the Bulls and Miami both finish 6-6, it is our opinion that the MAC will fail to place all eight teams in bowls. Seven teams are most likely the maximum that will earn bids from the MAC.

Mountain West
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Boise St., Wyoming, Colorado St., San Diego St., Fresno St.
5-Win Teams: 1 — Utah St.
4-Win Teams: 2 — Air Force, UNLV
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 6

It looks like Boise State and San Diego State will face off in the MWC Championship Game, and the winner will be a formidable foe for a Pac-12 team in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Utah State was not expected to compete for a bowl this year, but the Aggies are one win away from bowl eligibility. Hawaii visits Logan this week, and USU should get that sixth win before finishing at Air Force.

As for the four-win teams, it will be a major surprise if either Air Force or UNLV wins out. The Falcons play at Boise State this week, and that should produce loss number seven. UNLV finishes with road games against New Mexico and Nevada.

Sun Belt
Bowl Eligible: 3 — Troy, Appalachian St., Georgia St.
5-Win Teams: 1 — Arkansas St.
4-Win Teams: New Mexico St., South Alabama, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 6

Arkansas St. is 5-3 with three chances to win one more game. The Red Wolves host lowly Texas State this week and should become bowl eligible, before closing with a road game against UL-Monroe and a home game with Troy.

Two of the four 4-win teams should become bowl eligible, but there is not likely to be six openings for this league with five bowl tie-ins.

UL-Lafayette always seems to find its way to the Superdome in the postseason. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in five bowls in their history, all of which were New Orleans Bowls. ULL must finish 2-1 against a slate of New Mexico State, Georgia Southern, and at Appalachian State, and their chances are better than 50-50 of winning twice.

UL-Monroe and South Alabama have very tough roads to close out the year. ULM merely must win at Auburn or at Florida State and then take care of Arkansas State at home in order to finish 6-6. USA should win at Georgia Southern this week, but their finale at New Mexico State looks very difficult.

As for New Mexico State, the Aggies need to go 2-1 against UL-Lafayette, Idaho, and South Alabama. We believe NMSU will get those two wins, but then the league will not lobby for the Aggies to get a bowl bid, as they will be leaving the Sun Belt after this season. This league has spurned teams leaving the conference in the past, most recently Middle Tennessee, when the Blue Raiders left for CUSA.

Independents
Note–Notre Dame will not be included in this section, as they count in the ACC bowl section.

Bowl Eligible: 1 — Army
Army is 8-2, and the Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl.

Power 5 Conferences
Atlantic Coast
Bowl Eligible: 8 — Clemson, North Carolina St., Wake Forest, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), Virginia Tech, Virginia + Notre Dame
5-Win Teams: 2 — Boston College, Georgia Tech
4-Win Teams: 3 — Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburgh
3-Win Team: 1 — Florida St.
Bowl Tie-ins: 9
Likely Bowl Eligible: 10

Miami or Clemson is likely to make the Playoffs.

Clemson and Miami will play in the ACC Championship Game, and the winner stands an excellent chance of making it to the Playoffs. Notre Dame is still alive for a NY6 Bowl, but the slaughter at the hands of Miami has ended the Irish’s chances of making the Playoffs. Notre Dame still has a road game against Stanford, and the home game with Navy is no sure thing, so there is a rather possible chance that the Irish will lose for a third time and be relegated to a non-NY6 Bowl.

Boston College gets a chance to become bowl eligible at the best venue in the Boston area. The Eagles face off against U Conn at Fenway Park. BC finishes with a road game against Syracuse. We believe the Eagles will be bowl bound this year.
5-4 Georgia Tech plays just 11 games thanks to the hurricane. The Yellow Jackets most likely must win at Duke this week, as they finish against Georgia in two weeks.

Syracuse, Duke, and Pittsburgh are all 4-6. We do not believe any of the three will finish 2-0 to become bowl eligible. Syracuse plays at Louisville this week, and the Cardinals should send the Orange to their seventh loss, making the home finale with Boston College inconsequential. Duke has to beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest to get to 6-6, and even though they would be the top APR team at 5-7, we believe there will be 80 bowl eligible teams for the 78 bowls, meaning no 5-7 teams will get a chance to bowl this season. Pitt is staring at 4-8 with games against Virginia Tech and Miami to close out a forgettable 2017 season.

Florida St. is 3-6, and until they hurried to reschedule their hurricane-cancelling game with UL-Monroe, it looked like they would have no chance to get to six wins. The Seminoles will handle Delaware State with ease this week, and then they must beat rival Florida in Gainesville, before the makeup game with UL-Monroe will mean something. There is a good chance the Seminoles will accomplish the feat.

Big 12
Bowl Eligible: 4 — Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, West Virginia
5-Win Teams: 4 — Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech
4-Win Teams: 0
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7

Oklahoma is heavily favored to win out and earn a Playoff spot. TCU and Oklahoma State could both receive NY6 bowl bids, which would then leave the Big 12 two teams short and allow two at-large teams to fill the last two bowls in the pecking order.

Oklahoma should wrap up a spot in the Big 12 Playoffs with a game against Kansas this week. The other spot is still up for grabs. Oklahoma State, TCU, and West Virginia are tied at 5-2, while Iowa State and Texas are 4-3. Our money is on TCU to win at Texas Tech and at home against Baylor, and the Horned Frogs would hold the tiebreaker over OSU and WVU.

Of the four 5-win teams, one will most definitely fall short, finishing 5-7. Texas Tech and Texas face uphill climbs this week against favored opponents, and the Red Raiders and Longhorns close out in Austin on Black Friday, where the winner will be 6-6.

Big Ten
Bowl Eligible: 7 — Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa
5-Win Teams: 1 — Minnesota
4-Win Teams: 5 — Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska
Bowl Tie-ins: 8
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7

Wisconsin has a good chance of making the Playoffs, while one other team should earn a NY6 bowl bid. This would leave three Big Ten bowls without a league team.

Wisconsin has clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, while Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite to back into the title game. Michigan could beat the Buckeyes at the Big House in the season-ender, but unless the Wolverines knock off Wisconsin at Camp Randall this week, beating OSU will not get them to the Championship Game.

Minnesota closes with Northwestern in Evanston and Wisconsin in Minneapolis, so it looks like the Gophers may fall to 5-7. As for the five, 4-6 teams, we cannot find a path for any of the quintet to finish 2-0.

Pac-12
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Washington, Washington St., Stanford, USC, Arizona
5-Win Teams: 6 — Oregon, California, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, UCLA
4-Win Teams: 0
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Two from among the current Bowl Eligible teams are likely headed to NY6 bowls, so there should be one extra bowl eligible team to be sent elsewhere to an at-large bid.

If Stanford beats Cal this week, then Washington State would win the North Division with a win over Washington, while Stanford would win the division if Washington beat Washington State. If Cal beats Stanford, then the Wash-WSU winner would win the division.

USC has won the South Division title, and the Trojans have improved enough since October, that they should be considered favorites over any of the three North contenders.

Half of the league currently have five wins. We believe that four of the six will get the sixth win. Oregon finishes with Arizona and Oregon State at home, and the Ducks have a great chance to return to a bowl. Either Colorado or Utah is guaranteed to make a bowl, because one will have to win their encounter. The same goes for UCLA and Califirnia. Arizona State plays at Oregon State before hosting Arizona, and the Sun Devils should get win number six.

SEC
Bowl Eligible: 8 — Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
5-Win Teams: 1 — Missouri (Ole Miss is 5-5 but ineligible)
4-Win Teams: 3 — Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bowl Tie-ins: 9
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Alabama is almost certain to make the Playoffs, while Georgia is likely to earn a NY 6 Bowl Bid. That would leave the SEC two teams short in their bowl obligations.

Alabama only needs to show up to beat Mercer this week, and then the Tide has to finish at Auburn. Auburn can win the West Division by pulling off the big upset over Alabama.

LSU and Mississippi State should both get to nine wins, while South Carolina is an upset away over Clemson from becoming the sixth nine-win team from the league.

Missouri gets to play 0-6 Vandy and 1-5 Arkansas, so the Tigers should be 6-6 if not 7-5.
We do not expect any of the three 4-6 teams to win out and become bowl eligible.

 

Ratings & Spreads For 2017 National Championship Game

Just the Facts, Please

NCAA FBS National Championship Game

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0) vs. #2 Clemson Tigers (13-1) 

Date: Monday, January 9, 2017

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

TV: ESPN

Online: WatchESPN app

Site: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Radio: ESPN Radio and ESPNRadio.com

To find your local radio affiliate: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/affiliate

 

Handicapper’s Corner

Las Vegas Spread: Alabama by 6 1/2

Las Vegas Totals: 51

 

PiRate Rating: Alabama by 7.1

Mean Rating: Alabama by 6.3

Bias Rating: Alabama by 7.7

Note: The firing of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and replacing him with Steve Sarkisian has bot been factored into our three ratings.  

100 Simulations

Alabama Wins: 73

Clemson Wins: 27

Average Score: Alabama 31  Clemson 22

Outlier A: Alabama 38  Clemson 7

Outlier B: Clemson 34  Alabama 26

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 8-12, 2016

Thank You For The Kind Words

We have received more than three dozens congratulations tonight from you about our incredible weekend with our Money Line selections.  For those that do not know or follow, our picks (all at better than even money odds) went 6-0 returning a profit of 151%, but as we say every week in our selections “We do not actually wager real money on these games, and we advise you not to use our picks for anything more than secondary research.”  That said, we now show a profit for the season and a return on investment of 12%, which looks a lot better than the stock market this year.  Unfortunately, we cannot say that the stock market selections are as mythical as the money line picks.

 

Decision 2016
This is the big week. There will be change sweeping across America after the results of this week. This is the week where America will tune in to see if the favorite or the underdog wins.

No, we’re not talking politics. This is the first of the big closing weeks to the college football season, and a lot of games have major importance and implications on conference championships and more. Let’s take a look at some of the key games and why this will be a weekend you want to stay inside, enjoy a nice brunch on Saturday morning, an assortment of snackfood, and your beverages of choice as you are entertained from Noon Eastern Time Until past Midnight.

Baylor at Oklahoma
The Sooners hold out very slim hopes of sneaking into the playoffs with two losses, while Baylor is trying to stop a swoon. We predicted Baylor would end the season sinking due to a lack of depth, and we think the Bears will suffer their third consecutive loss. But, we cannot see Oklahoma jumping into the top four. However, the Sooners are in a tight, three-way race for the Big 12 title and the Sugar Bowl bid that would come with it.

South Carolina at Florida and Kentucky at Tennessee
We have grouped these two games together, because the SEC East is now up for grabs between the Gators, Volunteers, and more. If South Carolina continues its late-season surge and upsets the Gators in the Swamp, and if Kentucky can win in Knoxville for the first time in 32 years, then the race will be open for as many as three to five teams to finish in a multiple tie at 4-4. Maybe none of these teams really wants to face Alabama in Atlanta in December.

Tulsa at Navy
At stake in this game is the American Athletic Western Division title. Both teams are 4-1 in league play, and the winner figures to finish 7-1 and play Temple or South Florida in the AAC Championship Game.

UTSA at Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is the prohibitive favorite to win the Conference USA West Division, and this is the Bulldogs’ final obstacle to that path. UTSA has become the surprise team in the division with recent wins over North Texas and Middle Tennessee. The winner of this game will play Western Kentucky in the league championship game.

Appalachian St. at Troy
This game should decide the Sun Belt title, as these are the current top two teams in the league. If the winner of this game runs the table the rest of the way, it is likely the league will have a team that cracks the top 25 at the end of the season.

South Florida at Memphis
USF can still win the AAC East, and Memphis has a teeny tiny path to the AAC West division flag, but these teams are really fighting it out for a better bowl. The league does not slot teams in bowls by where they finish, but instead tries to place teams in bowls that provide better matchups. It’s better to be in Boca Raton, Orlando, or Miami Beach than Birmingham or Ft. Worth, and the sexier bowl sites will go to the teams that finish strong in November.

USC at Washington
The Trojans look like a new team from the one that lost to Stanford and Utah. The Trojans have won five consecutive games, including the lone Pac-12 loss on Colorado. The Trohans have averaged 40 points per game in this stretch. Washington has a tough closing schedule, as they have to win this game, beat Washington State in Pullman, and then beat the Pac-12 South Division winner (most likely Colorado or Utah) in the Pac-12 Championship Game to make it to the playoffs.

New Mexico at Utah St.
The Mountain West’s Mountain Division race is up for grabs, as New Mexico has just one conference loss and remains tied with Boise State, one game behind Wyoming. The Lobos are going bowling for sure, but they might like to venture outside of their home stadium for once. If they keep winning, they get to go to Vegas. Utah State is close to bowl elimination and finishes the season at Nevada and at BYU. This is a must-win game for the Aggies.

This week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	136.1	129.4	136.0	133.8
2	Michigan	131.9	129.4	132.1	131.1
3	Washington	130.8	123.5	130.6	128.3
4	Louisville	129.3	124.7	129.4	127.8
5	Clemson	129.5	122.4	128.6	126.8
6	Ohio St.	125.7	125.0	126.2	125.6
7	LSU	124.6	119.5	124.2	122.8
8	Auburn	122.3	120.0	122.3	121.5
9	Oklahoma	120.2	118.8	119.8	119.6
10	Virginia Tech	118.6	117.3	118.9	118.3
11	North Carolina	119.9	113.6	120.0	117.8
12	USC	118.9	114.2	116.8	116.6
13	Florida St.	118.8	112.6	117.9	116.4
14	Wisconsin	116.6	114.3	117.3	116.1
15	Colorado	117.5	113.1	117.3	116.0
16	Oklahoma St.	115.2	116.3	115.0	115.5
17	Texas A&M	116.2	114.4	115.7	115.4
18	Washington St.	116.4	113.5	116.2	115.4
19	Miami	117.3	111.6	116.8	115.2
20	Tennessee	116.0	113.2	115.2	114.8
21	Penn St.	114.6	115.4	114.3	114.8
22	Western Michigan	113.2	112.5	115.0	113.6
23	Florida	112.2	113.8	110.5	112.2
24	Stanford	114.2	108.3	113.5	112.0
25	Pittsburgh	113.2	109.5	112.2	111.6
26	West Virginia	111.6	110.9	111.0	111.2
27	Texas	110.5	111.6	109.9	110.7
28	TCU	110.3	111.8	109.4	110.5
29	Arkansas	112.4	108.0	110.7	110.4
30	Ole Miss	112.0	107.9	110.7	110.2
31	Houston	109.6	108.5	111.0	109.7
32	Notre Dame	111.2	108.0	109.8	109.7
33	Utah	112.0	106.5	110.4	109.6
34	Baylor	109.3	109.8	109.7	109.6
35	UCLA	110.2	108.6	109.5	109.4
36	BYU	110.5	105.2	110.4	108.7
37	South Florida	109.1	107.3	109.6	108.7
38	Mississippi St.	109.4	107.7	108.6	108.6
39	San Diego St.	108.4	106.8	110.4	108.6
40	Iowa	109.2	107.0	108.7	108.3
41	Nebraska	109.1	106.4	108.8	108.1
42	Northwestern	109.5	105.8	108.5	107.9
43	Georgia	107.8	107.4	106.9	107.4
44	Kansas St.	106.6	108.8	106.5	107.3
45	Temple	106.9	106.1	107.4	106.8
46	Georgia Tech	107.5	103.5	106.2	105.7
47	Western Kentucky	105.5	103.1	106.6	105.1
48	Oregon	105.9	104.0	105.0	105.0
49	Boise St.	104.3	105.5	105.1	105.0
50	Minnesota	105.5	104.4	105.0	105.0
51	Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.9	104.8
52	North Carolina St.	105.3	102.4	104.9	104.2
53	Texas Tech	104.4	103.6	102.9	103.7
54	Toledo	103.1	103.6	103.9	103.5
55	Arizona St.	104.2	103.1	102.8	103.4
56	Indiana	102.9	104.6	102.4	103.3
57	Memphis	104.2	102.3	103.1	103.2
58	Navy	103.7	102.1	103.5	103.1
59	Virginia	103.6	101.0	103.0	102.5
60	Michigan St.	103.3	102.5	101.6	102.5
61	Wake Forest	102.3	100.9	102.8	102.0
62	Duke	102.2	102.0	101.6	101.9
63	Vanderbilt	103.3	99.9	102.2	101.8
64	Kentucky	101.1	102.0	100.5	101.2
65	Appalachian St.	99.6	100.0	101.4	100.3
66	South Carolina	100.1	99.7	99.8	99.9
67	Maryland	99.6	102.2	97.9	99.9
68	California	102.9	96.2	100.5	99.9
69	Syracuse	101.2	97.9	99.6	99.6
70	Louisiana Tech	97.8	99.6	99.7	99.0
71	Iowa St.	99.0	98.5	98.4	98.6
72	Central Florida	97.5	98.8	98.3	98.2
73	Air Force	96.7	98.4	97.1	97.4
74	Missouri	97.5	97.2	96.7	97.2
75	Boston College	97.1	95.9	96.4	96.5
76	Northern Illinois	94.8	96.1	96.1	95.7
77	New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
78	Troy	93.3	98.0	95.3	95.6
79	Cincinnati	95.2	95.4	94.9	95.2
80	Oregon St.	97.1	92.5	95.8	95.1
81	Wyoming	94.6	94.6	95.7	95.0
82	Illinois	95.7	92.5	94.7	94.3
83	Ohio	91.8	97.5	92.6	94.0
84	East Carolina	93.3	94.9	93.5	93.9
85	Arizona	95.1	92.9	93.6	93.9
86	Army	90.9	97.6	92.6	93.7
87	Central Michigan	92.8	94.7	93.1	93.5
88	Colorado St.	92.4	94.2	93.3	93.3
89	Middle Tennessee	92.6	93.7	93.1	93.1
90	Arkansas St.	91.6	93.7	93.4	92.9
91	SMU	91.4	90.9	93.5	92.0
92	Rutgers	92.3	90.1	91.0	91.2
93	Purdue	91.8	90.2	90.5	90.8
94	Georgia Southern	90.0	89.4	91.8	90.4
95	Connecticut	90.6	89.6	90.1	90.1
96	Miami (O)	89.3	90.2	90.8	90.1
97	Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
98	Old Dominion	87.6	90.9	88.4	89.0
99	Southern Mississippi	88.5	88.6	88.8	88.7
100	UTSA	85.5	92.0	87.9	88.5
101	Kent St.	87.4	89.2	88.1	88.3
102	Nevada	85.5	87.8	86.2	86.5
103	UNLV	85.3	88.4	85.4	86.4
104	Eastern Michigan	85.3	87.6	85.6	86.2
105	Ball St.	85.1	87.2	86.1	86.1
106	Tulane	83.3	87.4	83.9	84.9
107	Akron	82.6	88.1	83.7	84.8
108	South Alabama	81.9	88.2	82.7	84.3
109	Georgia St.	82.0	86.6	83.8	84.1
110	Kansas	83.1	88.0	80.6	83.9
111	San Jose St.	83.8	83.8	83.5	83.7
112	Idaho	80.6	86.0	82.5	83.0
113	Massachusetts	80.0	86.3	81.1	82.5
114	North Texas	81.1	84.3	81.7	82.4
115	Hawaii	82.6	81.8	82.4	82.3
116	Marshall	80.7	84.5	81.3	82.2
117	Bowling Green	81.7	82.2	81.7	81.9
118	Florida International	79.4	83.8	79.8	81.0
119	UL-Lafayette	76.9	82.9	78.4	79.4
120	Charlotte	77.1	82.6	77.9	79.2
121	Florida Atlantic	76.0	80.7	78.8	78.5
122	Buffalo	75.8	82.8	76.3	78.3
123	Fresno St.	77.1	80.6	76.8	78.2
124	Rice	75.2	81.9	75.3	77.5
125	UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.6	74.3
126	New Mexico St.	71.8	74.9	72.7	73.1
127	Texas St.	68.3	70.4	69.3	69.3
128	UL-Monroe	66.2	71.4	67.0	68.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	109.1	107.3	109.6	108.7
Temple	106.9	106.1	107.4	106.8
Central Florida	97.5	98.8	98.3	98.2
Cincinnati	95.2	95.4	94.9	95.2
East Carolina	93.3	94.9	93.5	93.9
Connecticut	90.6	89.6	90.1	90.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	109.6	108.5	111.0	109.7
Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.9	104.8
Memphis	104.2	102.3	103.1	103.2
Navy	103.7	102.1	103.5	103.1
SMU	91.4	90.9	93.5	92.0
Tulane	83.3	87.4	83.9	84.9
AAC Averages	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	129.3	124.7	129.4	127.8
Clemson	129.5	122.4	128.6	126.8
Florida St.	118.8	112.6	117.9	116.4
North Carolina St.	105.3	102.4	104.9	104.2
Wake Forest	102.3	100.9	102.8	102.0
Syracuse	101.2	97.9	99.6	99.6
Boston College	97.1	95.9	96.4	96.5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	118.6	117.3	118.9	118.3
North Carolina	119.9	113.6	120.0	117.8
Miami	117.3	111.6	116.8	115.2
Pittsburgh	113.2	109.5	112.2	111.6
Georgia Tech	107.5	103.5	106.2	105.7
Virginia	103.6	101.0	103.0	102.5
Duke	102.2	102.0	101.6	101.9
ACC Averages	111.8	108.3	111.3	110.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.2	118.8	119.8	119.6
Oklahoma St.	115.2	116.3	115.0	115.5
West Virginia	111.6	110.9	111.0	111.2
Texas	110.5	111.6	109.9	110.7
TCU	110.3	111.8	109.4	110.5
Baylor	109.3	109.8	109.7	109.6
Kansas St.	106.6	108.8	106.5	107.3
Texas Tech	104.4	103.6	102.9	103.7
Iowa St.	99.0	98.5	98.4	98.6
Kansas	83.1	88.0	80.6	83.9
Big 12 Averages	107.0	107.8	106.3	107.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	131.9	129.4	132.1	131.1
Ohio St.	125.7	125.0	126.2	125.6
Penn St.	114.6	115.4	114.3	114.8
Indiana	102.9	104.6	102.4	103.3
Michigan St.	103.3	102.5	101.6	102.5
Maryland	99.6	102.2	97.9	99.9
Rutgers	92.3	90.1	91.0	91.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	116.6	114.3	117.3	116.1
Iowa	109.2	107.0	108.7	108.3
Nebraska	109.1	106.4	108.8	108.1
Northwestern	109.5	105.8	108.5	107.9
Minnesota	105.5	104.4	105.0	105.0
Illinois	95.7	92.5	94.7	94.3
Purdue	91.8	90.2	90.5	90.8
Big Ten Averages	107.7	106.4	107.1	107.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	105.5	103.1	106.6	105.1
Middle Tennessee	92.6	93.7	93.1	93.1
Old Dominion	87.6	90.9	88.4	89.0
Marshall	80.7	84.5	81.3	82.2
Florida International	79.4	83.8	79.8	81.0
Charlotte	77.1	82.6	77.9	79.2
Florida Atlantic	76.0	80.7	78.8	78.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	97.8	99.6	99.7	99.0
Southern Mississippi	88.5	88.6	88.8	88.7
UTSA	85.5	92.0	87.9	88.5
North Texas	81.1	84.3	81.7	82.4
Rice	75.2	81.9	75.3	77.5
UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.6	74.3
CUSA Averages	84.6	87.9	85.6	86.0
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	111.2	108.0	109.8	109.7
BYU	110.5	105.2	110.4	108.7
Army	90.9	97.6	92.6	93.7
Massachusetts	80.0	86.3	81.1	82.5
Independents Averages	98.2	99.3	98.5	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	91.8	97.5	92.6	94.0
Miami (O)	89.3	90.2	90.8	90.1
Kent St.	87.4	89.2	88.1	88.3
Akron	82.6	88.1	83.7	84.8
Bowling Green	81.7	82.2	81.7	81.9
Buffalo	75.8	82.8	76.3	78.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	113.2	112.5	115.0	113.6
Toledo	103.1	103.6	103.9	103.5
Northern Illinois	94.8	96.1	96.1	95.7
Central Michigan	92.8	94.7	93.1	93.5
Eastern Michigan	85.3	87.6	85.6	86.2
Ball St.	85.1	87.2	86.1	86.1
MAC Averages	90.2	92.7	91.1	91.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	105.5	105.1	105.0
Air Force	96.7	98.4	97.1	97.4
New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
Wyoming	94.6	94.6	95.7	95.0
Colorado St.	92.4	94.2	93.3	93.3
Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	108.4	106.8	110.4	108.6
Nevada	85.5	87.8	86.2	86.5
UNLV	85.3	88.4	85.4	86.4
San Jose St.	83.8	83.8	83.5	83.7
Hawaii	82.6	81.8	82.4	82.3
Fresno St.	77.1	80.6	76.8	78.2
MWC Averages	91.2	92.5	91.6	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	130.8	123.5	130.6	128.3
Washington St.	116.4	113.5	116.2	115.4
Stanford	114.2	108.3	113.5	112.0
Oregon	105.9	104.0	105.0	105.0
California	102.9	96.2	100.5	99.9
Oregon St.	97.1	92.5	95.8	95.1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	118.9	114.2	116.8	116.6
Colorado	117.5	113.1	117.3	116.0
Utah	112.0	106.5	110.4	109.6
UCLA	110.2	108.6	109.5	109.4
Arizona St.	104.2	103.1	102.8	103.4
Arizona	95.1	92.9	93.6	93.9
Pac-12 Averages	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	116.0	113.2	115.2	114.8
Florida	112.2	113.8	110.5	112.2
Georgia	107.8	107.4	106.9	107.4
Vanderbilt	103.3	99.9	102.2	101.8
Kentucky	101.1	102.0	100.5	101.2
South Carolina	100.1	99.7	99.8	99.9
Missouri	97.5	97.2	96.7	97.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	136.1	129.4	136.0	133.8
LSU	124.6	119.5	124.2	122.8
Auburn	122.3	120.0	122.3	121.5
Texas A&M	116.2	114.4	115.7	115.4
Arkansas	112.4	108.0	110.7	110.4
Ole Miss	112.0	107.9	110.7	110.2
Mississippi St.	109.4	107.7	108.6	108.6
SEC Averages	112.2	110.0	111.4	111.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	99.6	100.0	101.4	100.3
Troy	93.3	98.0	95.3	95.6
Arkansas St.	91.6	93.7	93.4	92.9
Georgia Southern	90.0	89.4	91.8	90.4
South Alabama	81.9	88.2	82.7	84.3
Georgia St.	82.0	86.6	83.8	84.1
Idaho	80.6	86.0	82.5	83.0
UL-Lafayette	76.9	82.9	78.4	79.4
New Mexico St.	71.8	74.9	72.7	73.1
Texas St.	68.3	70.4	69.3	69.3
UL-Monroe	66.2	71.4	67.0	68.2
Sun Belt Averages	82.0	85.6	83.5	83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.2	110.0	111.4	111.2
2	ACC	111.8	108.3	111.3	110.5
3	Pac-12	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
4	Big Ten	107.7	106.4	107.1	107.1
5	Big 12	107.0	107.8	106.3	107.1
6	AAC	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.2
7	Independents	98.2	99.3	98.5	98.6
8	MWC	91.2	92.5	91.6	91.8
9	MAC	90.2	92.7	91.1	91.3
10	CUSA	84.6	87.9	85.6	86.0
11	Sun Belt	82.0	85.6	83.5	83.7

 

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Michigan
3	Clemson
4	Louisville
5	Washington
6	Ohio St.
7	Wisconsin
8	Auburn
9	Western Michigan
10	Colorado
11	Penn St.
12	Texas A&M
13	Oklahoma
14	Washington St.
15	Florida St.
16	USC
17	Virginia Tech
18	LSU
19	West Virginia
20	Boise St.
21	North Carolina
22	Nebraska
23	Utah
24	Tennessee
25	Florida
26	Stanford
27	Arkansas
28	Houston
29	Oklahoma St.
30	South Florida
31	San Diego St.
32	Tulsa
33	Troy
34	Appalachian St.
35	Minnesota
36	Temple
37	Miami (Fla)
38	BYU
39	Ole Miss
40	Navy
41	Toledo
42	Baylor
43	Wyoming
44	Western Kentucky
45	Pittsburgh
46	Iowa
47	Northwestern
48	Kansas St.
49	Georgia
50	Memphis
51	Arizona St.
52	Texas
53	TCU
54	Louisiana Tech
55	Georgia Tech
56	Wake Forest
57	Kentucky
58	UCLA
59	California
60	Indiana
61	Central Florida
62	Maryland
63	Mississippi St.
64	South Carolina
65	North Carolina St.
66	Air Force
67	Texas Tech
68	Colorado St.
69	Oregon
70	Vanderbilt
71	New Mexico
72	Middle Tennessee
73	Ohio
74	Old Dominion
75	Syracuse
76	Notre Dame
77	Boston College
78	Oregon St.
79	Duke
80	SMU
81	Arkansas St.
82	Idaho
83	Illinois
84	Army
85	Eastern Michigan
86	Georgia Southern
87	Southern Miss.
88	Central Michigan
89	UTSA
90	Akron
91	Cincinnati
92	Michigan St.
93	East Carolina
94	Utah St.
95	Arizona
96	Northern Illinois
97	South Alabama
98	Virginia
99	Missouri
100	Miami (O)
101	Rutgers
102	Hawaii
103	Purdue
104	Kent St.
105	Connecticut
106	Tulane
107	Ball St.
108	North Texas
109	Charlotte
110	Iowa St.
111	UL-Lafayette
112	Georgia St.
113	UNLV
114	San Jose St.
115	Nevada
116	New Mexico St.
117	Florida Int’l.
118	UL-Monroe
119	Massachusetts
120	UTEP
121	Bowling Green
122	Marshall
123	Kansas
124	Buffalo
125	Texas St.
126	Florida Atlantic
127	Fresno St.
128	Rice

 

This Week’s Games–November 8-12
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 8
Ball St.	Eastern Michigan	2.8	2.6	3.5
Kent St.	Western Michigan	-22.8	-20.3	-23.9
Wednesday, November 9
Akron	Bowling Green	2.9	8.9	4.0
Northern Illinois	Toledo	-5.3	-4.5	-4.8
Thursday, November 10
Duke	Northern Carolina	-16.2	-10.1	-16.9
Georgia Southern	UL-Lafayette	15.6	9.0	15.9
Arizona St.	Utah	-4.8	-0.4	-4.6
Friday, November 11
Florida St.	Boston College	24.7	19.7	24.5
Saturday, November 12
Oklahoma	Baylor	13.9	12.0	13.1
Alabama	Mississippi St.	29.7	24.7	30.4
Florida	South Carolina	15.1	17.1	13.7
Tennessee	Kentucky	17.9	14.2	17.7
Central Florida	Cincinnati	5.3	6.4	6.4
East Carolina	SMU	4.9	7.0	3.0
Navy	Tulsa	2.6	-0.3	1.6
Kansas	Iowa St.	-13.4	-8.0	-15.3
Texas	West Virginia	1.9	3.7	1.9
Michigan St.	Rutgers	14.0	15.4	13.6
Indiana	Penn St.	-8.7	-7.8	-8.9
Purdue	Northwestern	-15.2	-13.1	-15.5
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	-1.1	-1.5	-2.3
Buffalo	Miami (O)	-11.0	-4.9	-12.0
Charlotte	Rice	4.4	3.2	5.1
Virginia	Miami (Fla.)	-10.7	-7.6	-10.8
Georgia St.	UL-Monroe	17.8	17.2	18.8
Arkansas St.	New Mexico St.	22.8	21.8	23.7
UNLV	Wyoming	-6.3	-3.2	-7.3
Georgia	Auburn	-12.0	-10.1	-12.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	-2.8	0.3	-2.5
Army (N)	Notre Dame	-20.3	-10.4	-17.2
Clemson	Pittsburgh	19.3	15.9	19.4
Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech	14.1	16.8	15.7
Louisiana Tech	UTSA	15.3	10.6	14.8
Western Kentucky	North Texas	27.4	21.8	27.9
Old Dominion	Southern Miss.	2.1	5.3	2.6
Troy	Appalachian St.	-2.7	1.0	-3.1
Wisconsin	Illinois	23.4	24.3	25.1
Houston	Tulane	29.3	24.1	30.1
Maryland	Ohio St.	-23.1	-19.8	-25.3
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	13.8	15.7	15.1
Texas St.	Idaho	-9.3	-12.6	-10.2
Oregon	Stanford	-5.3	-1.3	-5.5
Florida Atlantic	UTEP	6.6	6.8	8.2
Hawaii	Boise St.	-18.2	-21.2	-19.2
Marshall	Middle Tennessee	-8.9	-6.2	-8.8
Louisville	Wake Forest	30.0	26.8	29.6
Arkansas	LSU	-9.2	-8.5	-10.5
Memphis	South Florida	-1.9	-2.0	-3.5
Nebraska	Minnesota	6.6	5.0	6.8
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	7.2	9.5	8.0
Washington	USC	14.9	12.3	16.8
Iowa	Michigan	-19.7	-19.4	-20.4
UCLA	Oregon St.	16.1	19.1	16.7
Arizona	Colorado	-19	-17.2	-20.7
Air Force	Colorado St.	6	6.4	6.8
Utah St.	New Mexico	-3.0	-2.5	-4.1
Nevada	San Diego St.	-19.9	-16.0	-21.2
Washington St.	California	16.5	20.3	18.7

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	UTSA
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	San Diego St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Fla.	vs.	Ga. Southern
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Miami (Ohio)	vs.	Arkansas St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Old Dominion	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Temple	vs.	Ohio U
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	La. Tech
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Wyoming	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Colorado St.
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Houston	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	TCU
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Akron	vs.	Appy St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	Boise St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Tulsa	vs.	{Hawaii}
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	{Army}	vs.	Northwestern
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	S. Carolina	vs.	[Charlotte]
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Idaho]	vs.	W. Kentucky
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	South Florida	vs.	Georgia Tech
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Utah
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	California
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	N. Carolina	vs.	West Virginia
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Indiana	vs.	USC
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Tennessee
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	{S.Alabama}	vs.	Ole Miss
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Georgia
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Wash. St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	LSU
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Wake Forest	vs.	Stanford
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	North Texas	vs.	Air Force
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Iowa	vs.	Kentucky
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Auburn
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Arkansas
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Clemson	vs.	Michigan
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Louisville
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Florida
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Washington	vs.	Western Mich.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	vs.	Colorado
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	vs.	Texas A&M
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Michigan
[Team]	At-Large Selection
{Team}	Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

We have been asked to explain what is the difference between at-large and alternate selections.

At-large selections are bowl-eligible teams from conferences that have more teams than allotted bowls.  For instance if the American Athletic Conference has eight bowl tie-ins, but they have nine bowl eligible teams, one of the nine would be an at-large team in another bowl that does not have a team due to a league not having enough bowl eligible teams.

Alternate teams are those that must be used to fill bowls even though they are not actually bowl-eligible.  There are multiple ways a team can be considered an alternate choice, and it goes according to this hieracrchy.

1. 6-6 teams that beat two FCS opponents.  Only one FCS win is allowed to count toward bowl eligibility.  Army and South Alabama both could finish 6-6 with two wins over FCS opponents.
2. 6-7 teams that won their division and lost in their conference championship game.  There is little to no chance that such an event will happen this year, but there is a very slim chance that a 6-6 team could win the SEC East and then lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
3. 6-7 teams that played 13 regular season games.  Hawaii is likely to be 6-7 this year.
4. 5-7 teams with the highest APR Scores.  If there are still openings needed after the above three criteria have been applied, the teams with the highest APR scores will receive what’s left.  Last year, three schools with 5-7 records received bowl bids (all three won their bowls).

Here are the list of possible 5-7 teams ranked in order of highest APR Scores

Duke

Vanderbilt

Army

Georgia Tech

North Texas

Boston College

Missouri

Utah St.

Syracuse

UCLA

Mississippi St.

 

The Alternate teams will choose which bowls they wish to attend in order of the hierarchy herein.  Thus, the lowest team in the hierarchy will get the last bowl that is left.

PiRate Ratings 2016 College Football Championship Game Preview

2016 College Football Playoffs National Championship Game Information

Date: Monday, January 11, 2016

Site: University of Phoenix Stadium: Glendale, Arizona

TV Network: ESPN

Approximate Kickoff: 8:30 PM EST

Talent: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, Tom Rinaldi

Radio Network: ESPN

Talent: Mike Tirico, Todd Blackledge, Holly Rowe, Joe Schad

 

Opponents: #1 Clemson (14-0) vs. #2 Alabama (13-1)

Las Vegas Spread (avg.): Alabama by 6 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 10.0 expected score 34-24

Mean: Alabama by 7.1 expected score 31-24

Bias: Alabama by 9.7 expected score 34-24

Average: Alabama by 8.9 expected score 33-24

 

100 Computer Simulations

Alabama wins: 86

Clemson wins: 14

Average Score: Alabama 34.9  Clemson 23.4

Standard Deviation: 8.9

Alabama Outlier: Alabama 42  Clemson 20

Clemson Outlier: Clemson 37  Alabama 23

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowl Projections

See the PiRate Ratings and Spreads for college and pro football at: http://www.piratings.webs.com
How many points is Alabama worth in home field advantage at Bryant-Denny Stadium? Would you say that five points is about right? If so, then The Crimson Tide and Mississippi State are dead even on a neutral field, correct?

The brains that vacuum large pots of money out of the books in Las Vegas, Reno, and offshore would tell you this is true, but the elite that select the teams for the playoffs may not see it that way. There is precedent for not seeing the forest for all the trees.

Let’s go back to 2006. Number one Ohio State, 11-0, hosted number two Michigan, also 11-0, at the giant horseshoe in Columbus. Ohio State’s home field advantage was worth at least four and as much as six points, and the Buckeyes had to hold on to edge the Wolverines by three points. In essence, on a neutral field, Michigan figured to be marginally better than Ohio State, and these two teams should have been slotted to face each other for the national championship a month and a half later. It would have been the greatest National Championship Game of the BCS era, but the BCS rankings dropped Michigan down and elevated Florida up into the number two slot.

Florida exploded to embarrass Ohio State in the title game, while a dejected Michigan team failed to show up in the Rose Bowl against a quality USC team. Had there been a playoff that year, these would have been the four teams, so in the end, Florida and USC would have advanced to the title game.

Back to 2014, what say the college football nation should Mississippi State and Alabama both win out? The Bulldogs are most likely going to edge out any 11-1 Big 12 team, as well as a possible 12-1 Ohio State team. In our opinion, any one-loss SEC West team must be in the playoffs, especially since Arkansas is now one win away from making all seven SEC West teams bowl eligible. There are no Iowa State’s, Kansas’s, or Texas Tech’s in the SEC West. There are no Purdue’s, Illinois’s, or Indiana’s in the SEC West. There are no Colorado’s or Washington State’s in the SEC West.

There are still a bevy of tricky games left that could shake up both the playoff race and the bowl projections.

In the ACC, Georgia Tech is one Duke loss away from facing Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. The Seminoles want no part of the spread option of the Yellow Jackets, as one or two breakdowns on defense could be the difference of 14 points. What if GT got an early lead? Can FSU come from behind against the best time-consuming offense there is?

In the Big Ten, Wisconsin might be strong enough to beat Ohio State in a possible conference championship game. The Badgers still have tough games left against Iowa and rival Minnesota.

In the Big 12, Baylor faces an Oklahoma State team this week that must win this game or upset Oklahoma to become bowl eligible. The Cowboys are probably looking at 5-7, but they may force the Bears to extend themselves. Baylor still has a date with Kansas State in December.

TCU has an even tougher assignment coming up on Thanksgiving. The Horned Frogs face a coming-on-strong Texas Longhorns team in Austin. We see that as a tossup as of today.

The Pac-12 could be interesting as well. The South Division is a mess with six of the seven teams still in contention for the division flag. UCLA controls its own destiny, and the Bruins will face Oregon in the conference championship game if they down USC and Stanford, both games to be played at the Rose Bowl. There is a chance for a five-team tie at 6-3, in which case Utah would emerge as the division champion.

In the race for the one Big Six Bowl invitation guaranteed to a Group of Five team, it is Marshall’s to lose. The Thundering Herd has a little bit of a tricky game this week at UAB, but we believe MU will come through. The likely opponent in the Conference USA Championship Game is Louisiana Tech, but Marshall looks like the class of this league, and coach Doc Holliday will be on the short list on many head coaching openings. Should Dana Holgersen get the offer at Florida or Michigan, or any other school that will get him out of West Virginia, then Holliday will be the next coach in Morgantown. If Marshall finishes 13-0, look for the Herd to play in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Should Marshall fall, Colorado State is the team in waiting, but only if the Rams can win at Air Force. At 11-1, the Rams would likely be in the Fiesta Bowl against a Baylor or TCU.

Here is a look at each conference and where we project the teams to go.

Records shown are our projections for where the teams will finish.

[ Team ] Indicates an at-large invitee

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
Coach Justin Fuente has greener pastures in his future after he has brought the Memphis Tigers back from the lowest of the lows to within two wins of a conference championship. The Tigers have home games against South Florida and Connecticut, and they figure to win both games by double digits. Unfortunately, at 9-3, Memphis has no real chance of falling into a Big Six bowl.

Temple appears to be in serious trouble in the bowl hunt. The 5-5 Owls must win out to have any chance to earn a spot, because at 6-6, their fan base is not strong enough to earn an at-large bid, as they cannot average 30,000 per game at Lincoln Financial Field.

1. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (7-1/9-3) vs. Florida
2. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (6-2/8-4) vs. Miami (Fla.)
3. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (7-1/9-3) vs. B Y U
4. Military Bowl: East Carolina (6-2/9-3) vs. Virginia Tech
5. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (5-3/7-5) vs. [ California ]

Also Bowl Eligible—Temple 4-4/6-6

Conference USA
As we mentioned above, Marshall has a clear path to a 13-0 finish, which will secure the automatic Group of Five bid to a Big Six Bowl. CUSA will get an extra bowl spot because of this, and the league will still have a surplus of bowl eligible teams. There is a secondary bowl tie-in, but we believe the bowl in question will choose to take a much more prestigious school from out West rather than a 6-6 CUSA team that averages less than 10,000 fans per home game in attendance.

In the West Division Louisiana Tech is not a lock for the top spot. The Bulldogs play at Old Dominion this week, and the Monarchs are in a must-win situation to become bowl eligible. If ODU wins, then LT must defeat Rice in two weeks to win the division title. If Rice beats UTEP this week, and ODU beats LT, then the November 29 game between the Owls and Bulldogs would decide the division title.

1. Big 6—Peach Bowl: Marshall (8-0/13-0) vs. Georgia
2. Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (8-0/9-4) vs. Air Force
3. Bahamas Bowl: Rice (5-3/7-5) vs. Bowling Green
4. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (5-3/6-6) vs. Northern Illinois
5. New Mexico Bowl: U T E P (5-3/7-5) vs. Utah St.
6. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Western Kentucky (3-5/6-6) vs. Maryland
Also Bowl Eligible: UAB 4-4/6-6

Mid-American Conference
Northern Illinois’s win over Toledo throws the West Division up for grabs with four teams still in the race. Western and Central Michigan join the other two in contention for the division crown. In the East, Bowling Green has already clinched the division title. The Falcons have a tough road game against an angry Toledo team Wednesday night. BGU’s lone conference loss came against Western Michigan, and the Broncos totally shut down the Falcons’ offense in the second half of that game.

The MAC figures to have two extra bowl eligible teams, both at 6-6, and neither will be lucky enough to earn an at-large invitation.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Bowling Green (6-2/9-4) vs. Rice
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (6-2/9-3) vs. Middle Tennessee
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Toledo (7-1/8-5) vs. San Diego St.
4. Camellia Bowl: Western Michigan (6-2/8-4) vs. South Alabama
5. GoDaddy Bowl: Central Michigan (6-2/8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Also Bowl Eligible: Ohio 4-4/6-6 & Akron 4-4/6-6

Mountain West Conference
For awhile Saturday night, it looked like the Mountain Division representative in the MWC Championship Game was about to be Colorado State, as San Diego State shot out to a nice lead over Boise State, before the Broncos charged back to win. The top four teams remain Mountain Division schools, as the West Division currently has a three-way tie at 3-3, with one of the co-leaders, Fresno State, mired at 4-6 overall.

The league has six bowl tie-ins and will produce six bowl eligible teams. Should Colorado State edge out Marshall for the Big Six bowl bid, it will force a the Idaho Potato Bowl to search for an at-large team, which most likely would come from the Pac-12.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (7-1/11-2) vs. Utah
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (7-1/11-1) vs. Navy
3. Hawaii Bowl: Air Force (5-3/9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech
4. New Mexico Bowl: Utah St. (6-2/9-4) vs. U T E P
5. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada (5-3/8-5) vs. Arkansas St.
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego St. (4-4/6-6) vs. Toledo

Sunbelt Conference

Louisiana-Lafayette clinched the top seed in the bowl order, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have not clinched the conference championship. Georgia Southern is also undefeated in conference play, but the Eagles are not bowl eligible this year unless there are not enough bowl eligible teams (which there will be by quite a few). ULL has been in a rut, playing in three consecutive New Orleans Bowl games. We think it is about time, they leave the state in December.

This will be an interesting bowl race among the rest of the field. Arkansas State and South Alabama are already bowl eligible, while Texas State and Appalachian State are one win away.

1. GoDaddy Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (8-0/9-3) vs. Central Michigan
2. New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas St. (5-3/7-5) vs. Nevada
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (5-3/6-6) vs. Western Michigan

Also Bowl Eligible: Texas St. 5-3/7-5

Independents (Notre Dame included in ACC bowl tie-ins)
Army’s loss to Western Kentucky officially eliminates the Black Knights from their Armed Forces bowl tie-in. BYU clinched their Miami Beach Bowl berth with a win over UNLV, while Navy has two chances left to win one more game and earn their Poinsettia Bowl invitation.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (7-5) vs. Cincinnati
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (7-5) vs. Colorado St.

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference
Whew! That’s what ACC Commissioner John Swofford must have mouthed late Saturday night when Florida State pulled out yet another dramatic finish to stay undefeated. The Seminoles will not make the playoffs if they lose any remaining game, and Swofford needs something positive for his conference with an academic fraud investigation hanging over his head at North Carolina (he was formerly the AD at UNC), as well as numerous rumors about the Florida State program.

Virginia Tech’s upset of Duke opens the door for Georgia Tech to win the Coastal Division title, and the Yellow Jackets will back into that game should North Carolina beat Duke this weekend. FSU will be rooting heavily for the Blue Devils to win that game.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Florida St. (8-0/13-0) vs. Oregon
2. Big 6—Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (6-2/9-4) vs. Wisconsin
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (5-3/9-3) vs. West Virginia
4. Gator Bowl: Clemson (6-2/8-4) vs. Ole Miss
5. Belk Bowl: Notre Dame (8-4) vs. L S U
6. Sun Bowl: Louisville (5-3/8-4) vs. Arizona St.
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (4-4/7-5) vs. Rutgers
8. Military Bowl: Virginia Tech (4-4/7-5) vs. East Carolina
9. Independence Bowl: North Carolina (5-3/7-5) vs. South Carolina
10. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina St. (2-6/6-6) vs. Northwestern
11. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (Fla.) (5-3/8-4) vs. Central Florida

Big Ten Conference

Ohio State is still squarely in the playoff race, but after this past Saturday’s games, we now seriously doubt that they can win the Big Ten Championship. After watching Wisconsin run through Nebraska, and remembering what happened the last time OSU and UW faced off, we believe the Badgers might be a little too strong for Ohio State’s run defense if these two face off for the title.

Wisconsin still must earn their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, and that will be no easy task. The Badgers have a road game against Iowa and a home game for Paul Bunyan’s Axe against Minnesota. Weather could easily play a factor in both games, so it is not guarantee that UW will even make it to Indianapolis.

We have made one change in the bowl eligibility list this week. With Northwestern’s comeback win at Notre Dame, we now move the Wildcats over Illinois.

1. Big 6-Orange Bowl: Wisconsin (7-1/11-2) vs. Georgia Tech
2. Big 6-Cotton Bowl: Ohio St. (8-0/11-2) vs. T C U
3. Big 6-Fiesta Bowl: Michigan St. (7-1/10-2) vs. Baylor
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska (5-3/9-3) vs. Missouri
5. Outback Bowl: Iowa (5-3/8-4) vs. Auburn
6. Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (4-4/7-5) vs. Arizona
7. Music City Bowl: Penn St. (2-6/6-6) vs. Tennessee
8. San Francisco Bowl: Michigan (4-4/6-6) vs. U S C
9. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (2-6/6-6) vs. Boston College
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Northwestern (4-4/6-6) vs. North Carolina St.
11. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Maryland (4-4/7-5) vs. Western Kentucky

Big 12 Conference

It has been quite apparent for some time that the Big 12 will not supply enough bowl eligible teams to meet all of its bowl obligations. This will be a certainty if both Baylor and TCU win out. Oklahoma State is now on the outside looking in, as the Cowboys are 5-5 with games remaining against Baylor and Oklahoma.

Texas is the key to this league’s bowl projections. The Longhorns have a legitimate chance to knock off TCU and throw a large monkey wrench into the works. For now, because it makes things much too difficult to rearrange, we are going to go with TCU and Baylor to win out.

1. Big 6-Cotton Bowl: T C U (8-1/11-1) vs. Ohio St.
2. Big 6-Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (8-1/11-1) vs. Michigan St.
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (6-3/9-3) vs. U C L A
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia (6-3/8-4) vs. Duke
5. Liberty Bowl: Texas (5-4/6-6) vs. Arkansas
6. Cactus Bowl: Kansas St. (6-3/8-4) vs. Washington

Pac-12 Conference

Oregon has already clinched the North Division title, but the Ducks have two tough games that must be victories if they are going to make the playoffs. They end the regular season at rival Oregon State, and the Beavers will probably be 5-6 needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Of course, the Pac-12 Championship Game will be tough, and the Ducks will not know their opponent until late on November 29.

We have already written about the South Division title race. If UCLA wins out, the Bruins are in the title game. However, if UCLA loses to either USC or Stanford (or both), there are numerous tie-breaker possibilities that can give USC, Arizona, Arizona State, or Utah the flag.

There are seven teams already bowl eligible, and three teams need just one more win to get there. We believe two of the three will get that sixth win, meaning nine teams will be bowl eligible. We project two of the nine will have to sweat out at-large invitations, and being the top two available at-large candidates, they will secure the projected two at-large available spots.

1. PLAYOFFS-Rose Bowl: Oregon (8-1/12-1) vs. Florida St.
2. Alamo Bowl: U C L A (7-2/10-3) vs. Oklahoma
3. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (6-3/9-3) vs. Minnesota
4. San Francisco Bowl: U S C (6-3/8-4) vs. Michigan
5. Sun Bowl: Arizona St. (6-3/9-3) vs. Louisville
6. Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (6-3/9-3) vs. Boise St.
7. Cactus Bowl: Washington (4-5/8-5) vs. Kansas St.
8. Texas Bowl (at-large): [ Stanford ] (4-5/6-6) vs. Texas A&M
9. Armed Forces (at-large): [ California ] (3-6/6-6) vs. Houston

Southeastern Conference

If Kentucky can beat rival Louisville, and if Arkansas can beat either Ole Miss or Missouri, the SEC will end up with an amazing 13 bowl eligible teams. We are going with 12, and this will be just enough to satisfy all the bowl tie-ins for the king of college conferences.

Read above to reinforce why we believe the SEC will win out over the Big 12 and Big Ten in the one-loss race to the playoffs.

If, by chance, Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl and Georgia knocks off Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, then it is going to be a very difficult choice for the Playoff Committee to take any SEC team if there are still four teams that have zero or one loss. Imagine if Georgia wins out to finish 11-2. How could the Bulldogs jump over TCU and Baylor, if both finish 11-1? Even a 12-1 Ohio State team would finish ahead of UGA.

Now, let’s say there are five two-loss SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Missouri), and then losses to TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State leave a dozen two loss teams in the mix. The real winner in this scenario would be Novartis, the owner of Maalox, because 12 influential elites would come down with the first case of mass heartburn.

For the sake of Condaleeza Rice’s stomach, let’s stick with the Tide and Bulldogs winning out.

Note—with the SEC’s decision to place conference teams where they can best capitalize on the bowl matchups, we have made some very interesting bowl games thanks to maneuvering like we expect the league will do.

1. PLAYOFFS-Sugar Bowl: Alabama (7-1/12-1) vs. Mississippi St.
2. PLAYOFFS-Sugar Bowl: Mississippi St. (7-1/11-1) vs. Alabama
3. Big 6-Peach Bowl: Georgia (6-2/10-3) vs. Marshall
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Missouri (5-3/8-4) vs. Nebraska
5. Outback Bowl: Auburn (4-4/8-4) vs. Iowa
6. Gator Bowl: Ole Miss (4-4/8-4) vs. Clemson
7. Belk Bowl: L S U (4-4/8-4) vs. Notre Dame
8. Music City Bowl: Tennessee (4-4/7-5) vs. Penn St.
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (3-5/7-5) vs. [ Stanford ]
10. Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (3-5/7-5) vs. Texas
11. Independence Bowl: South Carolina (3-5/7-5) vs. North Carolina
12. Birmingham Bowl: Florida (4-4/6-5) vs. Memphis