The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings Selections for The College Football National Championship Game & The NFL Wildcard Playoff Round

Final Land Sharp Selections

The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends.  Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season.  It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.

Now, here’s something else you should know.  If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright.  We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.

If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall!  Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it.  The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset.  If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars.  WOW!

Now, to make it even better.  Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%!  Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?

Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game.  Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:

Alabama – 5.5

Clemson +7

Over 59.5

Under 60 

 

Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat

Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points

Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13

 

Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13

One Land Sharp took the UNDER

Stewed Meat

 

As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence.  As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.

 

The PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Playoff Teasers

Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit.  We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.

We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round.  One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals.  These parlays both have 12-10 odds.

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indianapolis Houston 12 Houston
Dallas Seattle 15 Seattle
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 16 L.A. Chargers
Chicago Philadelphia 19.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Houston Indianapolis 61.5 UNDER
Dallas Seattle 30 OVER
Baltimore L.A. Chargers 28.5 OVER
Chicago Philadelphia 28 OVER

 

January 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football National Championship Game Preview

2017-18 College Football National Championship Game

#3 Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) vs. #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

Date: Monday, January 8, 2018

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: ESPN

Announcers: Chris Fowler–Play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit–Color commentary, Maria Taylor–Sideline, Tom Rinaldi–Sideline

Radio: ESPN

Announcers: Sean McDonough–Play-by-play, Todd Blackledge–Color commentary, Holly Rowe–Sideline, Ian Fitzsimmons–Sideline

Officiating: Big Ten Staff

Las Vegas Line (as of Tuesday, January 2, 2018, 4:00 PM EST

Spread: Alabama by 4 1/2

Money line: Alabama -200,  Georgia +170

Total: 45 1/2

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 6.5

Mean: Alabama by 3.7

Bias: Alabama by 4.8

Reasonable Expected Score: Alabama 31  Georgia 26

100 Computer Simulations

Wins: Alabama 68  Georgia 32

Average Score: Alabama 33  Georgia 27

Outlier ALA: Alabama 38  Georgia 9

Outlier GA: Georgia 27  Alabama 16 

 

 

November 13, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Ohio -10.3 -9.0 -10.9
Kent St. Central Michigan -18.5 -17.4 -19.0
Bowling Green Toledo -17.1 -16.1 -18.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan -4.6 -2.7 -3.9
Northern Illinois Western Michigan 1.2 1.9 1.4
Ball St. Buffalo -16.9 -17.1 -18.3
South Florida Tulsa 18.3 17.4 19.4
Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 7.0 5.8 6.8
New Mexico UNLV 1.8 0.1 2.4
Indiana Rutgers 8.3 9.0 8.7
Georgia Kentucky 19.6 20.5 20.7
East Carolina Cincinnati -3.0 -3.2 -4.3
Duke Georgia Tech -7.3 -5.2 -7.3
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 17.3 16.8 17.6
Temple Central Florida -15.1 -16.0 -15.9
Wake Forest North Carolina St. -2.4 -3.5 -2.5
Louisville Syracuse 6.2 6.8 6.7
Northwestern Minnesota 7.8 5.8 8.5
Michigan St. Maryland 9.6 9.2 11.4
West Virginia Texas 2.3 2.3 2.3
Kansas Oklahoma -40.0 -35.4 -42.2
Wyoming Fresno St. 8.6 8.2 7.4
Boise St. Air Force 17.1 15.2 17.3
Utah St. Hawaii 12.0 10.2 11.9
Old Dominion Rice 14.6 15.6 14.7
Southern Miss. Charlotte 15.0 13.8 15.2
BYU Massachusetts 3.3 4.0 2.7
UTEP Louisiana Tech -14.5 -13.4 -15.0
Georgia Southern South Alabama -9.1 -9.7 -9.9
Texas Tech TCU -11.5 -9.8 -12.3
Iowa Purdue 13.0 12.9 12.2
Oregon Arizona 0.6 0.5 0.4
Ohio St. Illinois 46.7 43.4 48.1
Florida UAB 27.3 23.8 24.4
Oregon St. Arizona St. -7.9 -7.5 -9.1
Memphis SMU 13.2 12.2 13.4
Miami (Fla.) Virginia 27.4 26.4 26.8
Baylor Iowa St. -11.6 -10.3 -12.7
Arkansas Mississippi St. -12.9 -13.5 -13.5
Vanderbilt Missouri -6.6 -5.4 -7.2
Washington Utah 25.1 21.7 25.4
Auburn UL-Monroe 49.5 46.6 50.5
Oklahoma St. Kansas St. 16.5 15.4 17.3
Colorado St. San Jose St. 35.2 33.9 35.9
Penn St. Nebraska 32.1 29.9 33.3
Tennessee LSU -14.4 -13.8 -16.5
Notre Dame Navy 20.9 18.7 21.3
Tulane Houston -7.7 -6.9 -7.7
UL-Lafayatte New Mexico St. -2.4 0.6 -2.7
Idaho Coastal Carolina 13.8 13.6 13.9
North Texas Army -12.1 -10.2 -11.8
Arkansas St. Texas St. 24.2 23.1 26.0
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 13.4 15.1 14.2
Boston College (n) Connecticut 26.7 24.4 26.5
UTSA Marshall 0.3 1.3 -0.5
Ole Miss Texas A&M -1.0 -0.4 -1.3
Wisconsin Michigan 11.1 8.6 10.6
USC UCLA 17.8 17.5 18.3
Stanford California 16.9 17.3 18.3
San Diego St. Nevada 16.1 14.2 15.8

FBS vs. FCS Games

Home Visitor PiRate
Clemson Citadel 50.0
Alabama Mercer 49.0
Florida St. Delaware St. 50.0
North Carolina Western Carolina 24.0
South Carolina Wofford 27.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Michigan
15 TCU
16 Washington
17 Washington St.
18 Mississippi St.
19 North Carolina St.
20 Memphis
21 Virginia Tech
22 Michigan St.
23 Stanford
24 Iowa
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Northwestern
28 Wake Forest
29 Iowa St.
30 South Florida
31 Arizona
32 South Carolina
33 West Virginia
34 Georgia Tech
35 Boston College
36 San Diego St.
37 Toledo
38 Houston
39 Louisville
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 Navy
43 Florida Atlantic
44 Kentucky
45 Army
46 Arizona St.
47 Ohio
48 Oregon
49 Florida St.
50 Northern Illinois
51 SMU
52 UCLA
53 Texas Tech
54 Troy
55 Missouri
56 Utah
57 California
58 Syracuse
59 Fresno St.
60 Wyoming
61 Marshall
62 Purdue
63 Virginia
64 Minnesota
65 Ole Miss
66 Kansas St.
67 Indiana
68 North Texas
69 Maryland
70 Western Michigan
71 Florida
72 Colorado
73 Nebraska
74 Colorado St.
75 Duke
76 Central Michigan
77 Pittsburgh
78 Temple
79 Tennessee
80 Arkansas St.
81 Rutgers
82 Utah St.
83 Arkansas
84 Florida Int’l.
85 UAB
86 Vanderbilt
87 Tulane
88 Akron
89 Southern Miss.
90 Appalachian St.
91 North Carolina
92 Georgia St.
93 Air Force
94 Middle Tennessee
95 Eastern Michigan
96 Buffalo
97 Miami (O)
98 UTSA
99 Cincinnati
100 Louisiana Tech
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 New Mexico St.
105 South Alabama
106 Connecticut
107 Old Dominion
108 BYU
109 UL-Monroe
110 Baylor
111 Massachusetts
112 Illinois
113 Nevada
114 UL-Lafayette
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 Oregon St.
118 East Carolina
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 Georgia Southern
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

 

 

PiRate Predictive Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
2 Ohio St. 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
3 Auburn 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
4 Clemson 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
5 Penn St. 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
6 Washington 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
7 Georgia 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
8 Miami 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
9 Oklahoma 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
10 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
11 Wisconsin 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
12 Stanford 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
13 U S C 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
14 Virginia Tech 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
15 T C U 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
16 Notre Dame 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
17 L S U 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
18 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
19 Michigan 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
20 Florida St. 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
22 Georgia Tech 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
23 Washington St. 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
24 Central Florida 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
25 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
26 Iowa 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
27 Texas 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
28 Louisville 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
29 Wake Forest 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
30 West Virginia 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
31 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
32 South Florida 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 Kansas St. 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
35 Memphis 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Arizona 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
38 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
39 Kentucky 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
40 Texas A&M 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
41 Missouri 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
43 Oregon 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
44 Florida 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
45 Minnesota 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
46 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
47 Arizona St. 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
48 Duke 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
49 Pittsburgh 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
50 Colorado 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
51 Utah 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
52 Texas Tech 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
53 Ole Miss 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
54 California 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
55 Houston 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
56 Indiana 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 U C L A 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
59 San Diego St. 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
60 Virginia 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
61 N. Carolina 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
62 Toledo 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
63 Colo. State 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
64 Army 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
65 Navy 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
66 Wyoming 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
67 Ohio U 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
68 Vanderbilt 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
69 Florida Atlantic 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
70 Tennessee 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
71 SMU 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
73 Baylor 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
74 Arkansas 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
75 Western Michigan 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
76 Nebraska 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
77 Rutgers 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
78 Northern Illinois 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
79 Eastern Michigan 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
80 Arkansas St. 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
81 Troy 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Fresno St. 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
84 Temple 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
85 Tulsa 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
86 Oregon St. 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
87 Air Force 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
88 Tulane 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
91 Utah St. 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
92 W. Kentucky 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
93 U T S A 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
94 Massachusetts 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
95 BYU 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
96 Nevada 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
97 Miami (O) 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
98 Illinois 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
99 Cincinnati 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
100 Akron 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
101 N. Mexico St. 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
102 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
103 Middle Tennessee 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
104 U N L V 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
105 N. Texas 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
106 S. Alabama 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
107 Louisiana Tech 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
108 Florida Int’l. 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
109 New Mexico 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
110 Connecticut 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
111 Hawaii 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
113 Old Dominion 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
114 Georgia St. 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
115 UAB 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
116 East Carolina 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
117 UL-Lafayette 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
118 Kansas 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
119 UL-Monroe 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
120 Bowling Green 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
121 Idaho 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
125 Charlotte 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
126 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
127 Coastal Carolina 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
128 U T E P 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
129 San Jose St. 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 6-0 9-0 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
South Florida 5-1 8-1 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
Temple 3-3 5-5 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
Cincinnati 1-5 3-7 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
Connecticut 2-5 3-7 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
East Carolina 1-5 2-8 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
Navy 4-3 6-3 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
SMU 3-3 6-4 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
Tulane 2-4 4-6 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 9-1 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
N. Carolina St. 5-1 7-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-5 3-6 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
Louisville 3-4 6-4 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
Wake Forest 3-3 6-4 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
Boston College 3-4 5-5 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Syracuse 2-4 4-6 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 9-0 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
Virginia Tech 3-3 7-3 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
Georgia Tech 4-3 5-4 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
Duke 1-5 4-6 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
Pittsburgh 2-4 4-6 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
Virginia 3-3 6-4 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
N. Carolina 1-6 2-8 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 6-1 9-1 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
Oklahoma St. 5-2 8-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-2 8-2 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
Iowa State 4-3 5-5 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
Texas 4-3 5-5 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
West Virginia 5-2 7-3 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
Kansas St. 3-4 5-5 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
Texas Tech 2-5 5-5 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
Baylor 1-6 1-9 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
Kansas 0-7 1-9 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-1 8-2 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
Penn St. 5-2 8-2 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
Michigan 5-2 8-2 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
Michigan St. 5-2 7-3 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
Indiana 1-6 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
Maryland 2-5 4-6 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
Rutgers 3-4 4-6 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 7-0 10-0 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
Iowa 3-4 6-4 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
Northwestern 5-2 7-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Minnesota 2-5 5-5 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
Purdue 2-5 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Nebraska 3-4 4-6 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
Illinois 0-7 2-8 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 6-0 7-3 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
Marshall 4-2 7-3 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
W. Kentucky 3-3 5-5 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
Middle Tennessee 3-3 5-5 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
Florida Int’l. 4-2 6-3 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
Old Dominion 2-4 4-6 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
Charlotte 1-5 1-9 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-4 5-4 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
N. Texas 6-1 7-3 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
Louisiana Tech 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
Southern Miss. 4-2 6-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
UAB 5-2 7-3 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
Rice 1-5 1-9 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-6 0-10 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-2 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
Army   8-2 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
Massachusetts   3-7 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
BYU   3-8 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-1 8-2 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
Miami (O) 3-3 4-6 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
Akron 4-2 5-5 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
Buffalo 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
Bowling Green 2-4 2-8 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
Kent St. 1-5 2-8 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-1 8-2 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
Western Michigan 4-2 6-4 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
Eastern Michigan 1-5 3-7 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
Central Michigan 4-2 6-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-6 2-8 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 6-0 8-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-3 6-5 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
Wyoming 5-1 7-3 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
Air Force 3-3 4-6 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
New Mexico 1-5 3-7 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
Fresno St. 5-1 7-3 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
Nevada 2-4 2-8 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
U N L V 3-3 4-6 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
Hawaii 1-6 3-7 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
San Jose St. 0-6 1-10 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
             
MWC Averages     92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-2 8-2 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
Stanford 6-2 7-3 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
California 2-5 5-5 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
Oregon St. 0-7 1-9 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 7-1 9-2 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
Arizona 5-2 7-3 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
Arizona St. 4-3 5-5 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
Utah 2-5 5-5 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
U C L A 3-4 5-5 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-1 9-1 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
S. Carolina 5-3 7-3 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
Kentucky 4-3 7-3 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
Missouri 2-4 5-5 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
Florida 3-5 3-6 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
Vanderbilt 0-6 4-6 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
Tennessee 0-6 4-6 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 10-0 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
Auburn 6-1 8-2 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
L S U 4-2 7-3 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
Mississippi St. 3-3 7-3 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
Texas A&M 3-3 6-4 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
Ole Miss 2-4 5-5 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
Arkansas 1-5 4-6 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-1 5-3 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
N. Mexico St. 2-3 4-5 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
S. Alabama 3-3 4-6 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-5 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-5 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
Idaho 2-3 3-6 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
Georgia Southern 0-5 0-9 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
Texas St. 1-5 2-8 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
Coastal Carolina 0-6 1-9 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.7 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.5
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
7 AAC 97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.7 84.5 83.8 84.0

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Navy Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Boston College] Southern Miss.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Temple [Florida Int’l.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Western Ky.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Miami (O) Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Colorado] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Virginia [Central Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 [Fresno St.] Oregon
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Wake Forest [Middle Tenn.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Georgia Tech Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Northern Illinois] Arizona
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas LSU
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 South Florida Florida St.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan St. Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 West Virginia Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville UCLA
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 North Carolina St. Missouri
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Kansas St. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC TCU
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Ohio St. Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Oklahoma Miami (Fla.)
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Who Should Be National Coach of the Year
If Alabama wins the National Championship this year with a perfect 15-0 record, Nick Saban would be the odds-on favorite to win the National Coach of the Year Award. Playing in a very tough SEC Western Division and adding a win over Georgia, plus two in the Playoffs, it would be hard to argue with anybody that voted Saban number one on their ballots.

However, we here at the PiRate Ratings not only do not think Saban should be the National Coach of the Year, he shouldn’t be the State of Alabama Coach of the Year!
This is not a knock against Saban. In our opinion, Saban’s coaching job this year would be the same as Swen Nater as the second best center in the nation in 1972 and 1973 when he was at UCLA (unfortunately, number one was Bill Walton).

If you are over the age of 50 like so many of our readers, you remember SMU receiving the death penalty, not being allowed to play for two years. When the Mustangs returned to college football, they suffered through years and years of very weak football seasons. It was a new century before the Mustangs finally returned to a bowl.

What would you have thought of any coach that not only could have quickly taken SMU to a bowl in its first year back in football? That SMU coach that helped bring SMU back to football was none other than the greatest offensive tackle in NFL history–Forrest Gregg.  The job was too hard, and SMU won just four games in its first three years back in business.

A similar instance has presented the college football nation with another team not playing football for two seasons before returning this year. UAB dropped football for financial reasons after finishing 6-6 in 2014. The Blazers were expected to struggle mightily in their first season back in FBS football, being lucky to win a game this year. Except, nobody told Coach Bill Clark that his team was not supposed to come within one game of the CUSA West Division title and become bowl eligible, but that is exactly where UAB sits through 10 games of the season. The Blazers are 7-3, and Clark deserves serious consideration for NCOY; nobody has done a better job than Clark.
The Conference Races & Bowl Eligibility
Around the first of February every year, college basketball fans start looking in earnest at which teams appear to be in the NCAA Tournament, which are on “the bubble,” and which appear to be headed to a lesser tournament or none at all. In the Playoff era of FBS football, somebody should start something similar. So, here is a list for each conference.

Group of 5 Conferences
American Athletic Conference
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Central Florida, South Florida, Memphis, Houston, Navy, SMU
5-Win Teams: 1 — Temple
4-Win Teams: 1 — Tulane
Bowl Tie-ins: 7
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 (but the champion is likely to receive the NY6 Bowl bid, leaving this league one team short in its needs to fill its bowl tie-ins.

Central Florida leads the race for the one New Year’s Six Bowl slot that goes to a Group of 5 team, but Memphis has just one loss (to UCF). Should the Tigers beat UCF in a rematch at the AAC Championship Game, then Memphis could take the NY6 Bowl. USF is still in contention for this spot as well.

Temple needs one more win. The Owls host Central Florida this week in what should be a trap game for the Knights. TU closes the year out with a road game against Tulsa, so Temple has a decent chance to pick up win number six in the finale.

Tulane must upset Houston and SMU to become bowl eligible, and we do not see the Green Wave toppling either team.

Conference USA
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss.
5-Win Teams: 3 — Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, UTSA
4-Win Teams: 2 — Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Florida Atlantic has a two-game lead over Marshall and FIU, and Lane Kiffin has said this is the mosr rewarding season he has experienced as a coach. North Texas has already clinched the Western Division.

The three 5-win teams have excellent chances to get to six wins, and this should give thie league multiple at-large bowl teams. There will be enough open bowls for all nine bowl-eligible teams to receive bids.

Mid-American
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan
5-Win Teams: 1 — Akron
4-Win Teams: 2 — Miami (O), Buffalo
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 or 8

Akron may or may not beat Ohio this week, but the Zips finish with Kent State, and this should Terry Bowden’s squad to earn their second bowl in three seasons.

Both Miami and Buffalo have okay chances to win their final two games and square their marks at 6-6, but we believe the better prediction would have just one of the pair going 2-0. Miami host Eastern Michigan and closes at Ball State. The Redhawks lost their first six games last year and then won six in a row to earn a bowl bid. They only needed to go 3-0 to repeat the process this year, and they got a good start by upsetting Akron.

Buffalo has to win at Ball State and then upset Ohio in the regular season finale to finish 6-6. If the Bulls and Miami both finish 6-6, it is our opinion that the MAC will fail to place all eight teams in bowls. Seven teams are most likely the maximum that will earn bids from the MAC.

Mountain West
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Boise St., Wyoming, Colorado St., San Diego St., Fresno St.
5-Win Teams: 1 — Utah St.
4-Win Teams: 2 — Air Force, UNLV
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 6

It looks like Boise State and San Diego State will face off in the MWC Championship Game, and the winner will be a formidable foe for a Pac-12 team in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Utah State was not expected to compete for a bowl this year, but the Aggies are one win away from bowl eligibility. Hawaii visits Logan this week, and USU should get that sixth win before finishing at Air Force.

As for the four-win teams, it will be a major surprise if either Air Force or UNLV wins out. The Falcons play at Boise State this week, and that should produce loss number seven. UNLV finishes with road games against New Mexico and Nevada.

Sun Belt
Bowl Eligible: 3 — Troy, Appalachian St., Georgia St.
5-Win Teams: 1 — Arkansas St.
4-Win Teams: New Mexico St., South Alabama, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 6

Arkansas St. is 5-3 with three chances to win one more game. The Red Wolves host lowly Texas State this week and should become bowl eligible, before closing with a road game against UL-Monroe and a home game with Troy.

Two of the four 4-win teams should become bowl eligible, but there is not likely to be six openings for this league with five bowl tie-ins.

UL-Lafayette always seems to find its way to the Superdome in the postseason. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in five bowls in their history, all of which were New Orleans Bowls. ULL must finish 2-1 against a slate of New Mexico State, Georgia Southern, and at Appalachian State, and their chances are better than 50-50 of winning twice.

UL-Monroe and South Alabama have very tough roads to close out the year. ULM merely must win at Auburn or at Florida State and then take care of Arkansas State at home in order to finish 6-6. USA should win at Georgia Southern this week, but their finale at New Mexico State looks very difficult.

As for New Mexico State, the Aggies need to go 2-1 against UL-Lafayette, Idaho, and South Alabama. We believe NMSU will get those two wins, but then the league will not lobby for the Aggies to get a bowl bid, as they will be leaving the Sun Belt after this season. This league has spurned teams leaving the conference in the past, most recently Middle Tennessee, when the Blue Raiders left for CUSA.

Independents
Note–Notre Dame will not be included in this section, as they count in the ACC bowl section.

Bowl Eligible: 1 — Army
Army is 8-2, and the Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl.

Power 5 Conferences
Atlantic Coast
Bowl Eligible: 8 — Clemson, North Carolina St., Wake Forest, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), Virginia Tech, Virginia + Notre Dame
5-Win Teams: 2 — Boston College, Georgia Tech
4-Win Teams: 3 — Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburgh
3-Win Team: 1 — Florida St.
Bowl Tie-ins: 9
Likely Bowl Eligible: 10

Miami or Clemson is likely to make the Playoffs.

Clemson and Miami will play in the ACC Championship Game, and the winner stands an excellent chance of making it to the Playoffs. Notre Dame is still alive for a NY6 Bowl, but the slaughter at the hands of Miami has ended the Irish’s chances of making the Playoffs. Notre Dame still has a road game against Stanford, and the home game with Navy is no sure thing, so there is a rather possible chance that the Irish will lose for a third time and be relegated to a non-NY6 Bowl.

Boston College gets a chance to become bowl eligible at the best venue in the Boston area. The Eagles face off against U Conn at Fenway Park. BC finishes with a road game against Syracuse. We believe the Eagles will be bowl bound this year.
5-4 Georgia Tech plays just 11 games thanks to the hurricane. The Yellow Jackets most likely must win at Duke this week, as they finish against Georgia in two weeks.

Syracuse, Duke, and Pittsburgh are all 4-6. We do not believe any of the three will finish 2-0 to become bowl eligible. Syracuse plays at Louisville this week, and the Cardinals should send the Orange to their seventh loss, making the home finale with Boston College inconsequential. Duke has to beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest to get to 6-6, and even though they would be the top APR team at 5-7, we believe there will be 80 bowl eligible teams for the 78 bowls, meaning no 5-7 teams will get a chance to bowl this season. Pitt is staring at 4-8 with games against Virginia Tech and Miami to close out a forgettable 2017 season.

Florida St. is 3-6, and until they hurried to reschedule their hurricane-cancelling game with UL-Monroe, it looked like they would have no chance to get to six wins. The Seminoles will handle Delaware State with ease this week, and then they must beat rival Florida in Gainesville, before the makeup game with UL-Monroe will mean something. There is a good chance the Seminoles will accomplish the feat.

Big 12
Bowl Eligible: 4 — Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, West Virginia
5-Win Teams: 4 — Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech
4-Win Teams: 0
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7

Oklahoma is heavily favored to win out and earn a Playoff spot. TCU and Oklahoma State could both receive NY6 bowl bids, which would then leave the Big 12 two teams short and allow two at-large teams to fill the last two bowls in the pecking order.

Oklahoma should wrap up a spot in the Big 12 Playoffs with a game against Kansas this week. The other spot is still up for grabs. Oklahoma State, TCU, and West Virginia are tied at 5-2, while Iowa State and Texas are 4-3. Our money is on TCU to win at Texas Tech and at home against Baylor, and the Horned Frogs would hold the tiebreaker over OSU and WVU.

Of the four 5-win teams, one will most definitely fall short, finishing 5-7. Texas Tech and Texas face uphill climbs this week against favored opponents, and the Red Raiders and Longhorns close out in Austin on Black Friday, where the winner will be 6-6.

Big Ten
Bowl Eligible: 7 — Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa
5-Win Teams: 1 — Minnesota
4-Win Teams: 5 — Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska
Bowl Tie-ins: 8
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7

Wisconsin has a good chance of making the Playoffs, while one other team should earn a NY6 bowl bid. This would leave three Big Ten bowls without a league team.

Wisconsin has clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, while Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite to back into the title game. Michigan could beat the Buckeyes at the Big House in the season-ender, but unless the Wolverines knock off Wisconsin at Camp Randall this week, beating OSU will not get them to the Championship Game.

Minnesota closes with Northwestern in Evanston and Wisconsin in Minneapolis, so it looks like the Gophers may fall to 5-7. As for the five, 4-6 teams, we cannot find a path for any of the quintet to finish 2-0.

Pac-12
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Washington, Washington St., Stanford, USC, Arizona
5-Win Teams: 6 — Oregon, California, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, UCLA
4-Win Teams: 0
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Two from among the current Bowl Eligible teams are likely headed to NY6 bowls, so there should be one extra bowl eligible team to be sent elsewhere to an at-large bid.

If Stanford beats Cal this week, then Washington State would win the North Division with a win over Washington, while Stanford would win the division if Washington beat Washington State. If Cal beats Stanford, then the Wash-WSU winner would win the division.

USC has won the South Division title, and the Trojans have improved enough since October, that they should be considered favorites over any of the three North contenders.

Half of the league currently have five wins. We believe that four of the six will get the sixth win. Oregon finishes with Arizona and Oregon State at home, and the Ducks have a great chance to return to a bowl. Either Colorado or Utah is guaranteed to make a bowl, because one will have to win their encounter. The same goes for UCLA and Califirnia. Arizona State plays at Oregon State before hosting Arizona, and the Sun Devils should get win number six.

SEC
Bowl Eligible: 8 — Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
5-Win Teams: 1 — Missouri (Ole Miss is 5-5 but ineligible)
4-Win Teams: 3 — Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bowl Tie-ins: 9
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Alabama is almost certain to make the Playoffs, while Georgia is likely to earn a NY 6 Bowl Bid. That would leave the SEC two teams short in their bowl obligations.

Alabama only needs to show up to beat Mercer this week, and then the Tide has to finish at Auburn. Auburn can win the West Division by pulling off the big upset over Alabama.

LSU and Mississippi State should both get to nine wins, while South Carolina is an upset away over Clemson from becoming the sixth nine-win team from the league.

Missouri gets to play 0-6 Vandy and 1-5 Arkansas, so the Tigers should be 6-6 if not 7-5.
We do not expect any of the three 4-6 teams to win out and become bowl eligible.

 

January 5, 2017

Ratings & Spreads For 2017 National Championship Game

Just the Facts, Please

NCAA FBS National Championship Game

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0) vs. #2 Clemson Tigers (13-1) 

Date: Monday, January 9, 2017

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

TV: ESPN

Online: WatchESPN app

Site: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Radio: ESPN Radio and ESPNRadio.com

To find your local radio affiliate: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/affiliate

 

Handicapper’s Corner

Las Vegas Spread: Alabama by 6 1/2

Las Vegas Totals: 51

 

PiRate Rating: Alabama by 7.1

Mean Rating: Alabama by 6.3

Bias Rating: Alabama by 7.7

Note: The firing of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and replacing him with Steve Sarkisian has bot been factored into our three ratings.  

100 Simulations

Alabama Wins: 73

Clemson Wins: 27

Average Score: Alabama 31  Clemson 22

Outlier A: Alabama 38  Clemson 7

Outlier B: Clemson 34  Alabama 26

November 6, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 8-12, 2016

Thank You For The Kind Words

We have received more than three dozens congratulations tonight from you about our incredible weekend with our Money Line selections.  For those that do not know or follow, our picks (all at better than even money odds) went 6-0 returning a profit of 151%, but as we say every week in our selections “We do not actually wager real money on these games, and we advise you not to use our picks for anything more than secondary research.”  That said, we now show a profit for the season and a return on investment of 12%, which looks a lot better than the stock market this year.  Unfortunately, we cannot say that the stock market selections are as mythical as the money line picks.

 

Decision 2016
This is the big week. There will be change sweeping across America after the results of this week. This is the week where America will tune in to see if the favorite or the underdog wins.

No, we’re not talking politics. This is the first of the big closing weeks to the college football season, and a lot of games have major importance and implications on conference championships and more. Let’s take a look at some of the key games and why this will be a weekend you want to stay inside, enjoy a nice brunch on Saturday morning, an assortment of snackfood, and your beverages of choice as you are entertained from Noon Eastern Time Until past Midnight.

Baylor at Oklahoma
The Sooners hold out very slim hopes of sneaking into the playoffs with two losses, while Baylor is trying to stop a swoon. We predicted Baylor would end the season sinking due to a lack of depth, and we think the Bears will suffer their third consecutive loss. But, we cannot see Oklahoma jumping into the top four. However, the Sooners are in a tight, three-way race for the Big 12 title and the Sugar Bowl bid that would come with it.

South Carolina at Florida and Kentucky at Tennessee
We have grouped these two games together, because the SEC East is now up for grabs between the Gators, Volunteers, and more. If South Carolina continues its late-season surge and upsets the Gators in the Swamp, and if Kentucky can win in Knoxville for the first time in 32 years, then the race will be open for as many as three to five teams to finish in a multiple tie at 4-4. Maybe none of these teams really wants to face Alabama in Atlanta in December.

Tulsa at Navy
At stake in this game is the American Athletic Western Division title. Both teams are 4-1 in league play, and the winner figures to finish 7-1 and play Temple or South Florida in the AAC Championship Game.

UTSA at Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is the prohibitive favorite to win the Conference USA West Division, and this is the Bulldogs’ final obstacle to that path. UTSA has become the surprise team in the division with recent wins over North Texas and Middle Tennessee. The winner of this game will play Western Kentucky in the league championship game.

Appalachian St. at Troy
This game should decide the Sun Belt title, as these are the current top two teams in the league. If the winner of this game runs the table the rest of the way, it is likely the league will have a team that cracks the top 25 at the end of the season.

South Florida at Memphis
USF can still win the AAC East, and Memphis has a teeny tiny path to the AAC West division flag, but these teams are really fighting it out for a better bowl. The league does not slot teams in bowls by where they finish, but instead tries to place teams in bowls that provide better matchups. It’s better to be in Boca Raton, Orlando, or Miami Beach than Birmingham or Ft. Worth, and the sexier bowl sites will go to the teams that finish strong in November.

USC at Washington
The Trojans look like a new team from the one that lost to Stanford and Utah. The Trojans have won five consecutive games, including the lone Pac-12 loss on Colorado. The Trohans have averaged 40 points per game in this stretch. Washington has a tough closing schedule, as they have to win this game, beat Washington State in Pullman, and then beat the Pac-12 South Division winner (most likely Colorado or Utah) in the Pac-12 Championship Game to make it to the playoffs.

New Mexico at Utah St.
The Mountain West’s Mountain Division race is up for grabs, as New Mexico has just one conference loss and remains tied with Boise State, one game behind Wyoming. The Lobos are going bowling for sure, but they might like to venture outside of their home stadium for once. If they keep winning, they get to go to Vegas. Utah State is close to bowl elimination and finishes the season at Nevada and at BYU. This is a must-win game for the Aggies.

This week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 136.1 129.4 136.0 133.8
2 Michigan 131.9 129.4 132.1 131.1
3 Washington 130.8 123.5 130.6 128.3
4 Louisville 129.3 124.7 129.4 127.8
5 Clemson 129.5 122.4 128.6 126.8
6 Ohio St. 125.7 125.0 126.2 125.6
7 LSU 124.6 119.5 124.2 122.8
8 Auburn 122.3 120.0 122.3 121.5
9 Oklahoma 120.2 118.8 119.8 119.6
10 Virginia Tech 118.6 117.3 118.9 118.3
11 North Carolina 119.9 113.6 120.0 117.8
12 USC 118.9 114.2 116.8 116.6
13 Florida St. 118.8 112.6 117.9 116.4
14 Wisconsin 116.6 114.3 117.3 116.1
15 Colorado 117.5 113.1 117.3 116.0
16 Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.3 115.0 115.5
17 Texas A&M 116.2 114.4 115.7 115.4
18 Washington St. 116.4 113.5 116.2 115.4
19 Miami 117.3 111.6 116.8 115.2
20 Tennessee 116.0 113.2 115.2 114.8
21 Penn St. 114.6 115.4 114.3 114.8
22 Western Michigan 113.2 112.5 115.0 113.6
23 Florida 112.2 113.8 110.5 112.2
24 Stanford 114.2 108.3 113.5 112.0
25 Pittsburgh 113.2 109.5 112.2 111.6
26 West Virginia 111.6 110.9 111.0 111.2
27 Texas 110.5 111.6 109.9 110.7
28 TCU 110.3 111.8 109.4 110.5
29 Arkansas 112.4 108.0 110.7 110.4
30 Ole Miss 112.0 107.9 110.7 110.2
31 Houston 109.6 108.5 111.0 109.7
32 Notre Dame 111.2 108.0 109.8 109.7
33 Utah 112.0 106.5 110.4 109.6
34 Baylor 109.3 109.8 109.7 109.6
35 UCLA 110.2 108.6 109.5 109.4
36 BYU 110.5 105.2 110.4 108.7
37 South Florida 109.1 107.3 109.6 108.7
38 Mississippi St. 109.4 107.7 108.6 108.6
39 San Diego St. 108.4 106.8 110.4 108.6
40 Iowa 109.2 107.0 108.7 108.3
41 Nebraska 109.1 106.4 108.8 108.1
42 Northwestern 109.5 105.8 108.5 107.9
43 Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
44 Kansas St. 106.6 108.8 106.5 107.3
45 Temple 106.9 106.1 107.4 106.8
46 Georgia Tech 107.5 103.5 106.2 105.7
47 Western Kentucky 105.5 103.1 106.6 105.1
48 Oregon 105.9 104.0 105.0 105.0
49 Boise St. 104.3 105.5 105.1 105.0
50 Minnesota 105.5 104.4 105.0 105.0
51 Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.9 104.8
52 North Carolina St. 105.3 102.4 104.9 104.2
53 Texas Tech 104.4 103.6 102.9 103.7
54 Toledo 103.1 103.6 103.9 103.5
55 Arizona St. 104.2 103.1 102.8 103.4
56 Indiana 102.9 104.6 102.4 103.3
57 Memphis 104.2 102.3 103.1 103.2
58 Navy 103.7 102.1 103.5 103.1
59 Virginia 103.6 101.0 103.0 102.5
60 Michigan St. 103.3 102.5 101.6 102.5
61 Wake Forest 102.3 100.9 102.8 102.0
62 Duke 102.2 102.0 101.6 101.9
63 Vanderbilt 103.3 99.9 102.2 101.8
64 Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
65 Appalachian St. 99.6 100.0 101.4 100.3
66 South Carolina 100.1 99.7 99.8 99.9
67 Maryland 99.6 102.2 97.9 99.9
68 California 102.9 96.2 100.5 99.9
69 Syracuse 101.2 97.9 99.6 99.6
70 Louisiana Tech 97.8 99.6 99.7 99.0
71 Iowa St. 99.0 98.5 98.4 98.6
72 Central Florida 97.5 98.8 98.3 98.2
73 Air Force 96.7 98.4 97.1 97.4
74 Missouri 97.5 97.2 96.7 97.2
75 Boston College 97.1 95.9 96.4 96.5
76 Northern Illinois 94.8 96.1 96.1 95.7
77 New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
78 Troy 93.3 98.0 95.3 95.6
79 Cincinnati 95.2 95.4 94.9 95.2
80 Oregon St. 97.1 92.5 95.8 95.1
81 Wyoming 94.6 94.6 95.7 95.0
82 Illinois 95.7 92.5 94.7 94.3
83 Ohio 91.8 97.5 92.6 94.0
84 East Carolina 93.3 94.9 93.5 93.9
85 Arizona 95.1 92.9 93.6 93.9
86 Army 90.9 97.6 92.6 93.7
87 Central Michigan 92.8 94.7 93.1 93.5
88 Colorado St. 92.4 94.2 93.3 93.3
89 Middle Tennessee 92.6 93.7 93.1 93.1
90 Arkansas St. 91.6 93.7 93.4 92.9
91 SMU 91.4 90.9 93.5 92.0
92 Rutgers 92.3 90.1 91.0 91.2
93 Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
94 Georgia Southern 90.0 89.4 91.8 90.4
95 Connecticut 90.6 89.6 90.1 90.1
96 Miami (O) 89.3 90.2 90.8 90.1
97 Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
98 Old Dominion 87.6 90.9 88.4 89.0
99 Southern Mississippi 88.5 88.6 88.8 88.7
100 UTSA 85.5 92.0 87.9 88.5
101 Kent St. 87.4 89.2 88.1 88.3
102 Nevada 85.5 87.8 86.2 86.5
103 UNLV 85.3 88.4 85.4 86.4
104 Eastern Michigan 85.3 87.6 85.6 86.2
105 Ball St. 85.1 87.2 86.1 86.1
106 Tulane 83.3 87.4 83.9 84.9
107 Akron 82.6 88.1 83.7 84.8
108 South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
109 Georgia St. 82.0 86.6 83.8 84.1
110 Kansas 83.1 88.0 80.6 83.9
111 San Jose St. 83.8 83.8 83.5 83.7
112 Idaho 80.6 86.0 82.5 83.0
113 Massachusetts 80.0 86.3 81.1 82.5
114 North Texas 81.1 84.3 81.7 82.4
115 Hawaii 82.6 81.8 82.4 82.3
116 Marshall 80.7 84.5 81.3 82.2
117 Bowling Green 81.7 82.2 81.7 81.9
118 Florida International 79.4 83.8 79.8 81.0
119 UL-Lafayette 76.9 82.9 78.4 79.4
120 Charlotte 77.1 82.6 77.9 79.2
121 Florida Atlantic 76.0 80.7 78.8 78.5
122 Buffalo 75.8 82.8 76.3 78.3
123 Fresno St. 77.1 80.6 76.8 78.2
124 Rice 75.2 81.9 75.3 77.5
125 UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.6 74.3
126 New Mexico St. 71.8 74.9 72.7 73.1
127 Texas St. 68.3 70.4 69.3 69.3
128 UL-Monroe 66.2 71.4 67.0 68.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.1 107.3 109.6 108.7
Temple 106.9 106.1 107.4 106.8
Central Florida 97.5 98.8 98.3 98.2
Cincinnati 95.2 95.4 94.9 95.2
East Carolina 93.3 94.9 93.5 93.9
Connecticut 90.6 89.6 90.1 90.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 109.6 108.5 111.0 109.7
Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.9 104.8
Memphis 104.2 102.3 103.1 103.2
Navy 103.7 102.1 103.5 103.1
SMU 91.4 90.9 93.5 92.0
Tulane 83.3 87.4 83.9 84.9
         
AAC Averages 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 129.3 124.7 129.4 127.8
Clemson 129.5 122.4 128.6 126.8
Florida St. 118.8 112.6 117.9 116.4
North Carolina St. 105.3 102.4 104.9 104.2
Wake Forest 102.3 100.9 102.8 102.0
Syracuse 101.2 97.9 99.6 99.6
Boston College 97.1 95.9 96.4 96.5
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.6 117.3 118.9 118.3
North Carolina 119.9 113.6 120.0 117.8
Miami 117.3 111.6 116.8 115.2
Pittsburgh 113.2 109.5 112.2 111.6
Georgia Tech 107.5 103.5 106.2 105.7
Virginia 103.6 101.0 103.0 102.5
Duke 102.2 102.0 101.6 101.9
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.3 110.5
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.2 118.8 119.8 119.6
Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.3 115.0 115.5
West Virginia 111.6 110.9 111.0 111.2
Texas 110.5 111.6 109.9 110.7
TCU 110.3 111.8 109.4 110.5
Baylor 109.3 109.8 109.7 109.6
Kansas St. 106.6 108.8 106.5 107.3
Texas Tech 104.4 103.6 102.9 103.7
Iowa St. 99.0 98.5 98.4 98.6
Kansas 83.1 88.0 80.6 83.9
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.8 106.3 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 131.9 129.4 132.1 131.1
Ohio St. 125.7 125.0 126.2 125.6
Penn St. 114.6 115.4 114.3 114.8
Indiana 102.9 104.6 102.4 103.3
Michigan St. 103.3 102.5 101.6 102.5
Maryland 99.6 102.2 97.9 99.9
Rutgers 92.3 90.1 91.0 91.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 116.6 114.3 117.3 116.1
Iowa 109.2 107.0 108.7 108.3
Nebraska 109.1 106.4 108.8 108.1
Northwestern 109.5 105.8 108.5 107.9
Minnesota 105.5 104.4 105.0 105.0
Illinois 95.7 92.5 94.7 94.3
Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
         
Big Ten Averages 107.7 106.4 107.1 107.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 105.5 103.1 106.6 105.1
Middle Tennessee 92.6 93.7 93.1 93.1
Old Dominion 87.6 90.9 88.4 89.0
Marshall 80.7 84.5 81.3 82.2
Florida International 79.4 83.8 79.8 81.0
Charlotte 77.1 82.6 77.9 79.2
Florida Atlantic 76.0 80.7 78.8 78.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 97.8 99.6 99.7 99.0
Southern Mississippi 88.5 88.6 88.8 88.7
UTSA 85.5 92.0 87.9 88.5
North Texas 81.1 84.3 81.7 82.4
Rice 75.2 81.9 75.3 77.5
UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.6 74.3
         
CUSA Averages 84.6 87.9 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 111.2 108.0 109.8 109.7
BYU 110.5 105.2 110.4 108.7
Army 90.9 97.6 92.6 93.7
Massachusetts 80.0 86.3 81.1 82.5
         
Independents Averages 98.2 99.3 98.5 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.8 97.5 92.6 94.0
Miami (O) 89.3 90.2 90.8 90.1
Kent St. 87.4 89.2 88.1 88.3
Akron 82.6 88.1 83.7 84.8
Bowling Green 81.7 82.2 81.7 81.9
Buffalo 75.8 82.8 76.3 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 112.5 115.0 113.6
Toledo 103.1 103.6 103.9 103.5
Northern Illinois 94.8 96.1 96.1 95.7
Central Michigan 92.8 94.7 93.1 93.5
Eastern Michigan 85.3 87.6 85.6 86.2
Ball St. 85.1 87.2 86.1 86.1
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.3 105.5 105.1 105.0
Air Force 96.7 98.4 97.1 97.4
New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
Wyoming 94.6 94.6 95.7 95.0
Colorado St. 92.4 94.2 93.3 93.3
Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 108.4 106.8 110.4 108.6
Nevada 85.5 87.8 86.2 86.5
UNLV 85.3 88.4 85.4 86.4
San Jose St. 83.8 83.8 83.5 83.7
Hawaii 82.6 81.8 82.4 82.3
Fresno St. 77.1 80.6 76.8 78.2
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.5 91.6 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 130.8 123.5 130.6 128.3
Washington St. 116.4 113.5 116.2 115.4
Stanford 114.2 108.3 113.5 112.0
Oregon 105.9 104.0 105.0 105.0
California 102.9 96.2 100.5 99.9
Oregon St. 97.1 92.5 95.8 95.1
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 118.9 114.2 116.8 116.6
Colorado 117.5 113.1 117.3 116.0
Utah 112.0 106.5 110.4 109.6
UCLA 110.2 108.6 109.5 109.4
Arizona St. 104.2 103.1 102.8 103.4
Arizona 95.1 92.9 93.6 93.9
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 116.0 113.2 115.2 114.8
Florida 112.2 113.8 110.5 112.2
Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
Vanderbilt 103.3 99.9 102.2 101.8
Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
South Carolina 100.1 99.7 99.8 99.9
Missouri 97.5 97.2 96.7 97.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 136.1 129.4 136.0 133.8
LSU 124.6 119.5 124.2 122.8
Auburn 122.3 120.0 122.3 121.5
Texas A&M 116.2 114.4 115.7 115.4
Arkansas 112.4 108.0 110.7 110.4
Ole Miss 112.0 107.9 110.7 110.2
Mississippi St. 109.4 107.7 108.6 108.6
         
SEC Averages 112.2 110.0 111.4 111.2
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.6 100.0 101.4 100.3
Troy 93.3 98.0 95.3 95.6
Arkansas St. 91.6 93.7 93.4 92.9
Georgia Southern 90.0 89.4 91.8 90.4
South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
Georgia St. 82.0 86.6 83.8 84.1
Idaho 80.6 86.0 82.5 83.0
UL-Lafayette 76.9 82.9 78.4 79.4
New Mexico St. 71.8 74.9 72.7 73.1
Texas St. 68.3 70.4 69.3 69.3
UL-Monroe 66.2 71.4 67.0 68.2
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.0 85.6 83.5 83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.2 110.0 111.4 111.2
2 ACC 111.8 108.3 111.3 110.5
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big Ten 107.7 106.4 107.1 107.1
5 Big 12 107.0 107.8 106.3 107.1
6 AAC 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.2
7 Independents 98.2 99.3 98.5 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.5 91.6 91.8
9 MAC 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
10 CUSA 84.6 87.9 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 82.0 85.6 83.5 83.7

 

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Michigan
3 Clemson
4 Louisville
5 Washington
6 Ohio St.
7 Wisconsin
8 Auburn
9 Western Michigan
10 Colorado
11 Penn St.
12 Texas A&M
13 Oklahoma
14 Washington St.
15 Florida St.
16 USC
17 Virginia Tech
18 LSU
19 West Virginia
20 Boise St.
21 North Carolina
22 Nebraska
23 Utah
24 Tennessee
25 Florida
26 Stanford
27 Arkansas
28 Houston
29 Oklahoma St.
30 South Florida
31 San Diego St.
32 Tulsa
33 Troy
34 Appalachian St.
35 Minnesota
36 Temple
37 Miami (Fla)
38 BYU
39 Ole Miss
40 Navy
41 Toledo
42 Baylor
43 Wyoming
44 Western Kentucky
45 Pittsburgh
46 Iowa
47 Northwestern
48 Kansas St.
49 Georgia
50 Memphis
51 Arizona St.
52 Texas
53 TCU
54 Louisiana Tech
55 Georgia Tech
56 Wake Forest
57 Kentucky
58 UCLA
59 California
60 Indiana
61 Central Florida
62 Maryland
63 Mississippi St.
64 South Carolina
65 North Carolina St.
66 Air Force
67 Texas Tech
68 Colorado St.
69 Oregon
70 Vanderbilt
71 New Mexico
72 Middle Tennessee
73 Ohio
74 Old Dominion
75 Syracuse
76 Notre Dame
77 Boston College
78 Oregon St.
79 Duke
80 SMU
81 Arkansas St.
82 Idaho
83 Illinois
84 Army
85 Eastern Michigan
86 Georgia Southern
87 Southern Miss.
88 Central Michigan
89 UTSA
90 Akron
91 Cincinnati
92 Michigan St.
93 East Carolina
94 Utah St.
95 Arizona
96 Northern Illinois
97 South Alabama
98 Virginia
99 Missouri
100 Miami (O)
101 Rutgers
102 Hawaii
103 Purdue
104 Kent St.
105 Connecticut
106 Tulane
107 Ball St.
108 North Texas
109 Charlotte
110 Iowa St.
111 UL-Lafayette
112 Georgia St.
113 UNLV
114 San Jose St.
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico St.
117 Florida Int’l.
118 UL-Monroe
119 Massachusetts
120 UTEP
121 Bowling Green
122 Marshall
123 Kansas
124 Buffalo
125 Texas St.
126 Florida Atlantic
127 Fresno St.
128 Rice

 

This Week’s Games–November 8-12
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 8
Ball St. Eastern Michigan 2.8 2.6 3.5
Kent St. Western Michigan -22.8 -20.3 -23.9
         
Wednesday, November 9
Akron Bowling Green 2.9 8.9 4.0
Northern Illinois Toledo -5.3 -4.5 -4.8
         
Thursday, November 10
Duke Northern Carolina -16.2 -10.1 -16.9
Georgia Southern UL-Lafayette 15.6 9.0 15.9
Arizona St. Utah -4.8 -0.4 -4.6
         
Friday, November 11
Florida St. Boston College 24.7 19.7 24.5
         
Saturday, November 12
Oklahoma Baylor 13.9 12.0 13.1
Alabama Mississippi St. 29.7 24.7 30.4
Florida South Carolina 15.1 17.1 13.7
Tennessee Kentucky 17.9 14.2 17.7
Central Florida Cincinnati 5.3 6.4 6.4
East Carolina SMU 4.9 7.0 3.0
Navy Tulsa 2.6 -0.3 1.6
Kansas Iowa St. -13.4 -8.0 -15.3
Texas West Virginia 1.9 3.7 1.9
Michigan St. Rutgers 14.0 15.4 13.6
Indiana Penn St. -8.7 -7.8 -8.9
Purdue Northwestern -15.2 -13.1 -15.5
Syracuse North Carolina St. -1.1 -1.5 -2.3
Buffalo Miami (O) -11.0 -4.9 -12.0
Charlotte Rice 4.4 3.2 5.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -10.7 -7.6 -10.8
Georgia St. UL-Monroe 17.8 17.2 18.8
Arkansas St. New Mexico St. 22.8 21.8 23.7
UNLV Wyoming -6.3 -3.2 -7.3
Georgia Auburn -12.0 -10.1 -12.9
Missouri Vanderbilt -2.8 0.3 -2.5
Army (N) Notre Dame -20.3 -10.4 -17.2
Clemson Pittsburgh 19.3 15.9 19.4
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 14.1 16.8 15.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA 15.3 10.6 14.8
Western Kentucky North Texas 27.4 21.8 27.9
Old Dominion Southern Miss. 2.1 5.3 2.6
Troy Appalachian St. -2.7 1.0 -3.1
Wisconsin Illinois 23.4 24.3 25.1
Houston Tulane 29.3 24.1 30.1
Maryland Ohio St. -23.1 -19.8 -25.3
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 13.8 15.7 15.1
Texas St. Idaho -9.3 -12.6 -10.2
Oregon Stanford -5.3 -1.3 -5.5
Florida Atlantic UTEP 6.6 6.8 8.2
Hawaii Boise St. -18.2 -21.2 -19.2
Marshall Middle Tennessee -8.9 -6.2 -8.8
Louisville Wake Forest 30.0 26.8 29.6
Arkansas LSU -9.2 -8.5 -10.5
Memphis South Florida -1.9 -2.0 -3.5
Nebraska Minnesota 6.6 5.0 6.8
Texas A&M Ole Miss 7.2 9.5 8.0
Washington USC 14.9 12.3 16.8
Iowa Michigan -19.7 -19.4 -20.4
UCLA Oregon St. 16.1 19.1 16.7
Arizona Colorado -19 -17.2 -20.7
Air Force Colorado St. 6 6.4 6.8
Utah St. New Mexico -3.0 -2.5 -4.1
Nevada San Diego St. -19.9 -16.0 -21.2
Washington St. California 16.5 20.3 18.7

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC San Diego St. vs. Arizona St.
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. Ga. Southern
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (Ohio) vs. Arkansas St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Temple vs. Ohio U
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis vs. La. Tech
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Colorado St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Houston vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. TCU
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron vs. Appy St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. Boise St.
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Tulsa vs. {Hawaii}
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten {Army} vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND S. Carolina vs. [Charlotte]
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Idaho] vs. W. Kentucky
Military ACC/ND AAC South Florida vs. Georgia Tech
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. California
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 N. Carolina vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. USC
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Tennessee
Birmingham AAC SEC {S.Alabama} vs. Ole Miss
Belk ACC/ND SEC Miami (Fla.) vs. Georgia
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Wash. St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. LSU
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Wake Forest vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC North Texas vs. Air Force
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Iowa vs. Kentucky
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Virginia Tech vs. Penn St.
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Auburn
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Clemson vs. Michigan
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Louisville
Outback Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Washington vs. Western Mich.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Michigan
           
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

We have been asked to explain what is the difference between at-large and alternate selections.

At-large selections are bowl-eligible teams from conferences that have more teams than allotted bowls.  For instance if the American Athletic Conference has eight bowl tie-ins, but they have nine bowl eligible teams, one of the nine would be an at-large team in another bowl that does not have a team due to a league not having enough bowl eligible teams.

Alternate teams are those that must be used to fill bowls even though they are not actually bowl-eligible.  There are multiple ways a team can be considered an alternate choice, and it goes according to this hieracrchy.

  1. 6-6 teams that beat two FCS opponents.  Only one FCS win is allowed to count toward bowl eligibility.  Army and South Alabama both could finish 6-6 with two wins over FCS opponents.
  2. 6-7 teams that won their division and lost in their conference championship game.  There is little to no chance that such an event will happen this year, but there is a very slim chance that a 6-6 team could win the SEC East and then lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
  3. 6-7 teams that played 13 regular season games.  Hawaii is likely to be 6-7 this year.
  4. 5-7 teams with the highest APR Scores.  If there are still openings needed after the above three criteria have been applied, the teams with the highest APR scores will receive what’s left.  Last year, three schools with 5-7 records received bowl bids (all three won their bowls).

Here are the list of possible 5-7 teams ranked in order of highest APR Scores

Duke

Vanderbilt

Army

Georgia Tech

North Texas

Boston College

Missouri

Utah St.

Syracuse

UCLA

Mississippi St.

 

The Alternate teams will choose which bowls they wish to attend in order of the hierarchy herein.  Thus, the lowest team in the hierarchy will get the last bowl that is left.

January 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings 2016 College Football Championship Game Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 6:42 am

2016 College Football Playoffs National Championship Game Information

Date: Monday, January 11, 2016

Site: University of Phoenix Stadium: Glendale, Arizona

TV Network: ESPN

Approximate Kickoff: 8:30 PM EST

Talent: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, Tom Rinaldi

Radio Network: ESPN

Talent: Mike Tirico, Todd Blackledge, Holly Rowe, Joe Schad

 

Opponents: #1 Clemson (14-0) vs. #2 Alabama (13-1)

Las Vegas Spread (avg.): Alabama by 6 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 10.0 expected score 34-24

Mean: Alabama by 7.1 expected score 31-24

Bias: Alabama by 9.7 expected score 34-24

Average: Alabama by 8.9 expected score 33-24

 

100 Computer Simulations

Alabama wins: 86

Clemson wins: 14

Average Score: Alabama 34.9  Clemson 23.4

Standard Deviation: 8.9

Alabama Outlier: Alabama 42  Clemson 20

Clemson Outlier: Clemson 37  Alabama 23

November 17, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowl Projections

See the PiRate Ratings and Spreads for college and pro football at: http://www.piratings.webs.com
How many points is Alabama worth in home field advantage at Bryant-Denny Stadium? Would you say that five points is about right? If so, then The Crimson Tide and Mississippi State are dead even on a neutral field, correct?

The brains that vacuum large pots of money out of the books in Las Vegas, Reno, and offshore would tell you this is true, but the elite that select the teams for the playoffs may not see it that way. There is precedent for not seeing the forest for all the trees.

Let’s go back to 2006. Number one Ohio State, 11-0, hosted number two Michigan, also 11-0, at the giant horseshoe in Columbus. Ohio State’s home field advantage was worth at least four and as much as six points, and the Buckeyes had to hold on to edge the Wolverines by three points. In essence, on a neutral field, Michigan figured to be marginally better than Ohio State, and these two teams should have been slotted to face each other for the national championship a month and a half later. It would have been the greatest National Championship Game of the BCS era, but the BCS rankings dropped Michigan down and elevated Florida up into the number two slot.

Florida exploded to embarrass Ohio State in the title game, while a dejected Michigan team failed to show up in the Rose Bowl against a quality USC team. Had there been a playoff that year, these would have been the four teams, so in the end, Florida and USC would have advanced to the title game.

Back to 2014, what say the college football nation should Mississippi State and Alabama both win out? The Bulldogs are most likely going to edge out any 11-1 Big 12 team, as well as a possible 12-1 Ohio State team. In our opinion, any one-loss SEC West team must be in the playoffs, especially since Arkansas is now one win away from making all seven SEC West teams bowl eligible. There are no Iowa State’s, Kansas’s, or Texas Tech’s in the SEC West. There are no Purdue’s, Illinois’s, or Indiana’s in the SEC West. There are no Colorado’s or Washington State’s in the SEC West.

There are still a bevy of tricky games left that could shake up both the playoff race and the bowl projections.

In the ACC, Georgia Tech is one Duke loss away from facing Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. The Seminoles want no part of the spread option of the Yellow Jackets, as one or two breakdowns on defense could be the difference of 14 points. What if GT got an early lead? Can FSU come from behind against the best time-consuming offense there is?

In the Big Ten, Wisconsin might be strong enough to beat Ohio State in a possible conference championship game. The Badgers still have tough games left against Iowa and rival Minnesota.

In the Big 12, Baylor faces an Oklahoma State team this week that must win this game or upset Oklahoma to become bowl eligible. The Cowboys are probably looking at 5-7, but they may force the Bears to extend themselves. Baylor still has a date with Kansas State in December.

TCU has an even tougher assignment coming up on Thanksgiving. The Horned Frogs face a coming-on-strong Texas Longhorns team in Austin. We see that as a tossup as of today.

The Pac-12 could be interesting as well. The South Division is a mess with six of the seven teams still in contention for the division flag. UCLA controls its own destiny, and the Bruins will face Oregon in the conference championship game if they down USC and Stanford, both games to be played at the Rose Bowl. There is a chance for a five-team tie at 6-3, in which case Utah would emerge as the division champion.

In the race for the one Big Six Bowl invitation guaranteed to a Group of Five team, it is Marshall’s to lose. The Thundering Herd has a little bit of a tricky game this week at UAB, but we believe MU will come through. The likely opponent in the Conference USA Championship Game is Louisiana Tech, but Marshall looks like the class of this league, and coach Doc Holliday will be on the short list on many head coaching openings. Should Dana Holgersen get the offer at Florida or Michigan, or any other school that will get him out of West Virginia, then Holliday will be the next coach in Morgantown. If Marshall finishes 13-0, look for the Herd to play in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Should Marshall fall, Colorado State is the team in waiting, but only if the Rams can win at Air Force. At 11-1, the Rams would likely be in the Fiesta Bowl against a Baylor or TCU.

Here is a look at each conference and where we project the teams to go.

Records shown are our projections for where the teams will finish.

[ Team ] Indicates an at-large invitee

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
Coach Justin Fuente has greener pastures in his future after he has brought the Memphis Tigers back from the lowest of the lows to within two wins of a conference championship. The Tigers have home games against South Florida and Connecticut, and they figure to win both games by double digits. Unfortunately, at 9-3, Memphis has no real chance of falling into a Big Six bowl.

Temple appears to be in serious trouble in the bowl hunt. The 5-5 Owls must win out to have any chance to earn a spot, because at 6-6, their fan base is not strong enough to earn an at-large bid, as they cannot average 30,000 per game at Lincoln Financial Field.

1. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (7-1/9-3) vs. Florida
2. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (6-2/8-4) vs. Miami (Fla.)
3. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (7-1/9-3) vs. B Y U
4. Military Bowl: East Carolina (6-2/9-3) vs. Virginia Tech
5. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (5-3/7-5) vs. [ California ]

Also Bowl Eligible—Temple 4-4/6-6

Conference USA
As we mentioned above, Marshall has a clear path to a 13-0 finish, which will secure the automatic Group of Five bid to a Big Six Bowl. CUSA will get an extra bowl spot because of this, and the league will still have a surplus of bowl eligible teams. There is a secondary bowl tie-in, but we believe the bowl in question will choose to take a much more prestigious school from out West rather than a 6-6 CUSA team that averages less than 10,000 fans per home game in attendance.

In the West Division Louisiana Tech is not a lock for the top spot. The Bulldogs play at Old Dominion this week, and the Monarchs are in a must-win situation to become bowl eligible. If ODU wins, then LT must defeat Rice in two weeks to win the division title. If Rice beats UTEP this week, and ODU beats LT, then the November 29 game between the Owls and Bulldogs would decide the division title.

1. Big 6—Peach Bowl: Marshall (8-0/13-0) vs. Georgia
2. Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (8-0/9-4) vs. Air Force
3. Bahamas Bowl: Rice (5-3/7-5) vs. Bowling Green
4. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (5-3/6-6) vs. Northern Illinois
5. New Mexico Bowl: U T E P (5-3/7-5) vs. Utah St.
6. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Western Kentucky (3-5/6-6) vs. Maryland
Also Bowl Eligible: UAB 4-4/6-6

Mid-American Conference
Northern Illinois’s win over Toledo throws the West Division up for grabs with four teams still in the race. Western and Central Michigan join the other two in contention for the division crown. In the East, Bowling Green has already clinched the division title. The Falcons have a tough road game against an angry Toledo team Wednesday night. BGU’s lone conference loss came against Western Michigan, and the Broncos totally shut down the Falcons’ offense in the second half of that game.

The MAC figures to have two extra bowl eligible teams, both at 6-6, and neither will be lucky enough to earn an at-large invitation.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Bowling Green (6-2/9-4) vs. Rice
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (6-2/9-3) vs. Middle Tennessee
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Toledo (7-1/8-5) vs. San Diego St.
4. Camellia Bowl: Western Michigan (6-2/8-4) vs. South Alabama
5. GoDaddy Bowl: Central Michigan (6-2/8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Also Bowl Eligible: Ohio 4-4/6-6 & Akron 4-4/6-6

Mountain West Conference
For awhile Saturday night, it looked like the Mountain Division representative in the MWC Championship Game was about to be Colorado State, as San Diego State shot out to a nice lead over Boise State, before the Broncos charged back to win. The top four teams remain Mountain Division schools, as the West Division currently has a three-way tie at 3-3, with one of the co-leaders, Fresno State, mired at 4-6 overall.

The league has six bowl tie-ins and will produce six bowl eligible teams. Should Colorado State edge out Marshall for the Big Six bowl bid, it will force a the Idaho Potato Bowl to search for an at-large team, which most likely would come from the Pac-12.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (7-1/11-2) vs. Utah
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (7-1/11-1) vs. Navy
3. Hawaii Bowl: Air Force (5-3/9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech
4. New Mexico Bowl: Utah St. (6-2/9-4) vs. U T E P
5. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada (5-3/8-5) vs. Arkansas St.
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego St. (4-4/6-6) vs. Toledo

Sunbelt Conference

Louisiana-Lafayette clinched the top seed in the bowl order, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have not clinched the conference championship. Georgia Southern is also undefeated in conference play, but the Eagles are not bowl eligible this year unless there are not enough bowl eligible teams (which there will be by quite a few). ULL has been in a rut, playing in three consecutive New Orleans Bowl games. We think it is about time, they leave the state in December.

This will be an interesting bowl race among the rest of the field. Arkansas State and South Alabama are already bowl eligible, while Texas State and Appalachian State are one win away.

1. GoDaddy Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (8-0/9-3) vs. Central Michigan
2. New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas St. (5-3/7-5) vs. Nevada
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (5-3/6-6) vs. Western Michigan

Also Bowl Eligible: Texas St. 5-3/7-5

Independents (Notre Dame included in ACC bowl tie-ins)
Army’s loss to Western Kentucky officially eliminates the Black Knights from their Armed Forces bowl tie-in. BYU clinched their Miami Beach Bowl berth with a win over UNLV, while Navy has two chances left to win one more game and earn their Poinsettia Bowl invitation.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (7-5) vs. Cincinnati
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (7-5) vs. Colorado St.

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference
Whew! That’s what ACC Commissioner John Swofford must have mouthed late Saturday night when Florida State pulled out yet another dramatic finish to stay undefeated. The Seminoles will not make the playoffs if they lose any remaining game, and Swofford needs something positive for his conference with an academic fraud investigation hanging over his head at North Carolina (he was formerly the AD at UNC), as well as numerous rumors about the Florida State program.

Virginia Tech’s upset of Duke opens the door for Georgia Tech to win the Coastal Division title, and the Yellow Jackets will back into that game should North Carolina beat Duke this weekend. FSU will be rooting heavily for the Blue Devils to win that game.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Florida St. (8-0/13-0) vs. Oregon
2. Big 6—Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (6-2/9-4) vs. Wisconsin
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (5-3/9-3) vs. West Virginia
4. Gator Bowl: Clemson (6-2/8-4) vs. Ole Miss
5. Belk Bowl: Notre Dame (8-4) vs. L S U
6. Sun Bowl: Louisville (5-3/8-4) vs. Arizona St.
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (4-4/7-5) vs. Rutgers
8. Military Bowl: Virginia Tech (4-4/7-5) vs. East Carolina
9. Independence Bowl: North Carolina (5-3/7-5) vs. South Carolina
10. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina St. (2-6/6-6) vs. Northwestern
11. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (Fla.) (5-3/8-4) vs. Central Florida

Big Ten Conference

Ohio State is still squarely in the playoff race, but after this past Saturday’s games, we now seriously doubt that they can win the Big Ten Championship. After watching Wisconsin run through Nebraska, and remembering what happened the last time OSU and UW faced off, we believe the Badgers might be a little too strong for Ohio State’s run defense if these two face off for the title.

Wisconsin still must earn their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, and that will be no easy task. The Badgers have a road game against Iowa and a home game for Paul Bunyan’s Axe against Minnesota. Weather could easily play a factor in both games, so it is not guarantee that UW will even make it to Indianapolis.

We have made one change in the bowl eligibility list this week. With Northwestern’s comeback win at Notre Dame, we now move the Wildcats over Illinois.

1. Big 6-Orange Bowl: Wisconsin (7-1/11-2) vs. Georgia Tech
2. Big 6-Cotton Bowl: Ohio St. (8-0/11-2) vs. T C U
3. Big 6-Fiesta Bowl: Michigan St. (7-1/10-2) vs. Baylor
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska (5-3/9-3) vs. Missouri
5. Outback Bowl: Iowa (5-3/8-4) vs. Auburn
6. Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (4-4/7-5) vs. Arizona
7. Music City Bowl: Penn St. (2-6/6-6) vs. Tennessee
8. San Francisco Bowl: Michigan (4-4/6-6) vs. U S C
9. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (2-6/6-6) vs. Boston College
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Northwestern (4-4/6-6) vs. North Carolina St.
11. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Maryland (4-4/7-5) vs. Western Kentucky

Big 12 Conference

It has been quite apparent for some time that the Big 12 will not supply enough bowl eligible teams to meet all of its bowl obligations. This will be a certainty if both Baylor and TCU win out. Oklahoma State is now on the outside looking in, as the Cowboys are 5-5 with games remaining against Baylor and Oklahoma.

Texas is the key to this league’s bowl projections. The Longhorns have a legitimate chance to knock off TCU and throw a large monkey wrench into the works. For now, because it makes things much too difficult to rearrange, we are going to go with TCU and Baylor to win out.

1. Big 6-Cotton Bowl: T C U (8-1/11-1) vs. Ohio St.
2. Big 6-Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (8-1/11-1) vs. Michigan St.
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (6-3/9-3) vs. U C L A
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia (6-3/8-4) vs. Duke
5. Liberty Bowl: Texas (5-4/6-6) vs. Arkansas
6. Cactus Bowl: Kansas St. (6-3/8-4) vs. Washington

Pac-12 Conference

Oregon has already clinched the North Division title, but the Ducks have two tough games that must be victories if they are going to make the playoffs. They end the regular season at rival Oregon State, and the Beavers will probably be 5-6 needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Of course, the Pac-12 Championship Game will be tough, and the Ducks will not know their opponent until late on November 29.

We have already written about the South Division title race. If UCLA wins out, the Bruins are in the title game. However, if UCLA loses to either USC or Stanford (or both), there are numerous tie-breaker possibilities that can give USC, Arizona, Arizona State, or Utah the flag.

There are seven teams already bowl eligible, and three teams need just one more win to get there. We believe two of the three will get that sixth win, meaning nine teams will be bowl eligible. We project two of the nine will have to sweat out at-large invitations, and being the top two available at-large candidates, they will secure the projected two at-large available spots.

1. PLAYOFFS-Rose Bowl: Oregon (8-1/12-1) vs. Florida St.
2. Alamo Bowl: U C L A (7-2/10-3) vs. Oklahoma
3. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (6-3/9-3) vs. Minnesota
4. San Francisco Bowl: U S C (6-3/8-4) vs. Michigan
5. Sun Bowl: Arizona St. (6-3/9-3) vs. Louisville
6. Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (6-3/9-3) vs. Boise St.
7. Cactus Bowl: Washington (4-5/8-5) vs. Kansas St.
8. Texas Bowl (at-large): [ Stanford ] (4-5/6-6) vs. Texas A&M
9. Armed Forces (at-large): [ California ] (3-6/6-6) vs. Houston

Southeastern Conference

If Kentucky can beat rival Louisville, and if Arkansas can beat either Ole Miss or Missouri, the SEC will end up with an amazing 13 bowl eligible teams. We are going with 12, and this will be just enough to satisfy all the bowl tie-ins for the king of college conferences.

Read above to reinforce why we believe the SEC will win out over the Big 12 and Big Ten in the one-loss race to the playoffs.

If, by chance, Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl and Georgia knocks off Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, then it is going to be a very difficult choice for the Playoff Committee to take any SEC team if there are still four teams that have zero or one loss. Imagine if Georgia wins out to finish 11-2. How could the Bulldogs jump over TCU and Baylor, if both finish 11-1? Even a 12-1 Ohio State team would finish ahead of UGA.

Now, let’s say there are five two-loss SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Missouri), and then losses to TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State leave a dozen two loss teams in the mix. The real winner in this scenario would be Novartis, the owner of Maalox, because 12 influential elites would come down with the first case of mass heartburn.

For the sake of Condaleeza Rice’s stomach, let’s stick with the Tide and Bulldogs winning out.

Note—with the SEC’s decision to place conference teams where they can best capitalize on the bowl matchups, we have made some very interesting bowl games thanks to maneuvering like we expect the league will do.

1. PLAYOFFS-Sugar Bowl: Alabama (7-1/12-1) vs. Mississippi St.
2. PLAYOFFS-Sugar Bowl: Mississippi St. (7-1/11-1) vs. Alabama
3. Big 6-Peach Bowl: Georgia (6-2/10-3) vs. Marshall
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Missouri (5-3/8-4) vs. Nebraska
5. Outback Bowl: Auburn (4-4/8-4) vs. Iowa
6. Gator Bowl: Ole Miss (4-4/8-4) vs. Clemson
7. Belk Bowl: L S U (4-4/8-4) vs. Notre Dame
8. Music City Bowl: Tennessee (4-4/7-5) vs. Penn St.
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (3-5/7-5) vs. [ Stanford ]
10. Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (3-5/7-5) vs. Texas
11. Independence Bowl: South Carolina (3-5/7-5) vs. North Carolina
12. Birmingham Bowl: Florida (4-4/6-5) vs. Memphis

November 4, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowl Projections

For the projected bowl matchups, as well as ratings and predicted spreads for both college and pro, go to our website at:

http://www.piratings.webs.com

There are 38 bowls plus the National Championship Game, meaning 76 teams out of the 128 total playing in the FBS. As of today, we project 79 teams to become bowl eligible, so just three 6-6 teams will be left out of the postseason party.

All won-loss records shown are predicted final records and not current records.

The Group of Five

These five conferences are the leagues competing for one guaranteed spot in a Big Six Bowl (actually one of the four NewYear’s Eve/Day big bowls not involved in the playoffs, since no Group of Five team will qualify for the playoffs).

As of today, Marshall from Conference USA figures to be the highest rated Group of Five team, as East Carolina fell out of contention with their loss to Temple. Central Florida’s loss at UConn knocked the AAC from consideration. Should Marshall stumble, the door is now open for both Boise State and Colorado State to sneak into the top position. Boise would be there already had the Broncos not lost at Air Force, while CSU might have placed themselves on the cuff of contention for the playoffs had they won their game at Boise and stood at 9-0 today.

American Athletic Conference
The AAC balloon has deflated with the upset losses of both East Carolina and Central Florida. While the league is out of the Big Six picture for now, it promises to be possibly the most incredible finish of the conference races. Our prognosticators here now believe there is a credible chance that this league could end in a six-way tie for first at 6-2 in conference play between Central Florida, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, and Temple. The league has five guaranteed bowl bids, so one of these six would have to earn an at-large bowl invitation. The AAC should have no problem placing that sixth bowl eligible team in a bowl.

1. Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina (6-2/9-3)
2. Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (6-2/8-4)
3. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (6-2/8-4)
4. Military Bowl: Temple (6-2/8-4)
5. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (6-2/8-4)
6. Independence Bowl (at-large invitation): Memphis (6-2/8-4)

Conference USA
Doc Holliday may be the best college football recruiter in America, and his Marshall Thundering Herd may be the best CUSA team in the league’s history. Marshall has five games remaining in November and December standing in its way of a probable Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl bid. A November 22 game at UAB could be tricky, and a probable CUSA Championship Game tilt against Louisiana Tech is the biggest obstacle in the Herd’s trampling of their schedule.

We have removed Western Kentucky from the prospective bowl eligible teams and added UTEP. Rice is making another second half of the season run like Coach David Bailiff’s Owls have done the last two seasons. To run the table the rest of the way in 2014, Rice will have to pull off major upsets on the road against Marshall and Louisiana Tech and handle an improving UTEP team at home.

With Marshall expected to earn the Big Six Bowl invitation, this conference will have six bowl bids, and we predict there will be six bowl eligible teams.

1. Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Marshall (8-0/13-0)
2. Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (8-0/9-4)
3. Bahamas Bowl: UTEP (6-2/8-4)
4. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (6-2/7-5)
5. New Mexico Bowl: U A B (4-4/6-6)
6. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Rice (5-3/7-5)

Mid-American Conference
This is a down season of sorts in the MAC, mostly because there is a lot of parity and no dominant team. Northern Illinois is rebuilding, and Toledo and Bowling Green are not quite up to the standards of a typically dominant NIU team. This league figures to produce a glut of bowl eligible squads, probably two more than there is space avaialable in the bowl party.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (7-1/9-4)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (5-3/8-4)
3. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan (6-2/8-4)
4. Camellia Bowl: Central Michigan (6-2/8-4)
5. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Akron (6-2/8-5)
6. Birmingham Bowl (at-large invitation): Bowling Green (5-3/7-5)

Also Bowl Eligible
Ohio (4-4/6-6)
Ball St. (5-3/6-6)

Mountain West Conference
This league does not have the notoriety it did when TCU was a member and earning trips to the Rose Bowl. Still, there are some quality teams in the MWC, namely Boise State and Colorado State. Utah State, Air Force, and Nevada add to the quality.

Fresno State has been a big disappointment this season, and we have now removed the Bulldogs from the probable bowl eligible list. Wyoming and San Jose State are both in contention, but their schedules are not favorable, so we have not included them in the privileged list.

That leaves six bowl eligible teams in a league with six bowl tie-ins.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State (7-1/11-2)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado State (7-1/11-1)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Utah State (6-2/9-4)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Air Force (4-4/8-4)
5. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada (5-3/8-5)
6. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego State (5-3/7-5)

Sunbelt Conference
We will probably know in two weeks whether or not this league will have undefeated co-champions. Louisiana-Lafayette should have little trouble at New Mexico State this week, but a road game against rival Louisiana-Monroe is not going to be easy, especially since the Warhawks will need to win that game to get to 6-6.

Georgia Southern plays a tough Texas State team in San Marcos and may be looking ahead a week to a trip to Navy. Should the Eagles win this week, and UL-Lafayette wins next week, the two top teams should both finish 8-0 in league play.

Besides the previously mentioned Texas State Bobcats, Arkansas State will finish bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season with four different head coaches. South Alabama is probably headed to a 6-6 finish and no bowl invitation.

1. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Georgia Southern (8-0/9-3)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (8-0/9-3)
3. Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State (6-2/8-4)
4. Armed Forces Bowl (at-large invitation): Texas State (5-3/7-5)

Also Bowl Eligible: South Alabama (5-3/6-6)

Independents (Notre Dame is included in the ACC)
Army must win out to become bowl eligible, and the Black Knights cannot even take Fordham lightly, as they already have a loss to Yale. This will not be the year the men from West Point get back to a bowl. Thus, the Armed Forces Bowl will need to find a replacement team.

BYU is one win away from bowl eligibility and will get that sixth win, if not November 15 against UNLV, then definitely the following week against Savannah State.

Navy still has some work to do. The Midshipmen are 4-5. All three of their final games are tricky, as Georgia Southern and South Alabama are sneaky good, while even a winless Army team would be tough to beat much less this 2-win squad. However, Navy has a week off between each of these games and should win at least two if not all three to gain their automatic bowl bid.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (7-5)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (7-5)

The Power 5

We do not use the current rankings to set our playoff and bowl pairings. “If the season ended today” is only good when the season actually ends today. We look into the future to try to predict where the teams will be on December 7.

This week presents multiple contests which serve as eliminator games. It is like a Round of 64 and 32 NCAA Basketball weekend, where by Sunday morning, there will be a Sweet 16.

Here are the top games that will affect the Power 5 rankings this week:

Baylor at Oklahoma: The Bears are still in the thick of the playoff race, while Oklahoma is merely playing for a Cotton Bowl or Fiesta Bowl bid. Baylor won 41-12 last year and outgained the Sooners by more than 220 yards. OU will be ready to play its best game of the season.

Notre Dame at Arizona St.: Call this a pure elimination game for sure. The loser has no chance, while the winner stays in contention from near the back of the pack, but if the winner wins out, they will have a shot at playing in the Rose or Sugar Bowl. Even if the winner misses out on the playoffs, they are sure to get one of the other Big Six bowls.

The Sun Devils need Oregon to keep winning until the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Kansas State at TCU: The winner of this game has an excellent shot at finishing 12-1. The Big 12 may not be as highly ranked as in past years, but a 12-1 team here will have a nice resume.

Alabama at LSU: This is never a gimme game for the Crimson Tide. A loss here would just about end ‘Bama’s chances to make the playoffs but not totally eliminate them. With wins over Mississippi State and Auburn, Coach Nick Saban’s squad could still sneak in as the number four team. A win Saturday combined with wins over Mississippi State, Auburn, and the SEC East champion probably moves the Tide to number two and host of the Sugar Bowl in the playoffs.

LSU would need a lot of help to sneak into the playoffs. The Bengal Tigers would have to beat ‘Bama by double digits and then easily dismiss Arkansas and Texas A&M on the road. Then, Mississippi State would have to lose to both Alabama and Ole Miss, and the champions of the Big Ten and Big 12 would have to lose a second game as well.

Ohio State at Michigan State: This is a pure playoff eliminator. The winner can earn a playoff spot if they finish 12-1, and still it could be tough. The Spartans still have to jump at least one SEC school plus TCU and Oregon, and that loss to the Ducks will keep the quack attack ahead of them if both finish 12-1.

Ohio State needs a lot of help and could still finish on the outside looking in at 12-1.

Oregon at Utah: The Utes are done and can only hope for an Alamo or Holiday Bowl bid as a consolation prize or else settle for a lesser bowl. Oregon is still very much in the playoff picture and should make the final four if they win out. They will not sniff the playoffs with one more loss.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State reminds our founder of the 1958 Kentucky basketball team that won the national championship. That group of Wildcats were known as the “Fiddlin’ Five.” They just fiddled around for 25-30 minutes before going on one big run at the end to win.

Can the Seminoles continue this style of fiddlin’ for 2 ½ quarters before scoring three touchdowns in a five to seven-minute span and win the National Championship for a second consecutive season?

We don’t know the answer, but FSU probably can play this way the rest of the regular season and finish 13-0. The game at Miami on November 15 could be close for awhile, and maybe if Duke wins the Coastal Division, the Blue Devils can make a Championship Game rematch much closer than 2013, when the Seminoles won 45-7.

Elsewhere in the league, we have removed Virginia from bowl eligible likelihood, and this places Coach Mike London back on that hot seat. In the Cavaliers’ place, we have added North Carolina State back into the bowl mix.

Even though three league members might finish 6-6, the entire trio will have bowl preference over a possible 8-4 Miami Hurricanes. If they cannot put 10,000 fans in their home stadium, they aren’t likely to bring many to a bowl game.

In the past, Boston College has not sent many fans to its bowl games, but we believe a site closer to home will help the Eagles sell more tickets.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Florida State (8-0/13-0)
2. Orange Bowl: Duke (7-1/11-2)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Clemson (6-2/9-3)
4. Gator Bowl: Notre Dame (9-3)
5. Belk Bowl: Georgia Tech (6-2/9-3)
6. Sun Bowl: Louisville (4-4/7-5)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (5-3/8-4)
8. Military Bowl: North Carolina (4-4/6-6)
9. Independence Bowl: Virginia Tech (3-5/6-6)
10. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina State (2-6/6-6)
11. Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (5-3/8-4)

Big Ten Conference
Who would have ever thought that a Nebraska team could go 12-1 in the regular season and just be an afterthought in the NCAA Championship picture? You have to figure that had they stayed in the Big 12, the Cornhuskers would have been a cinch to make the playoffs at 12-1. That shows how far the Big Ten has fallen in prestige. Could it be that this league is now more of a basketball power than football power? Of course, this league has been the bridesmaid in the Final Four since Michigan State won that title more than a dozen years ago.

All eyes will be looking in at East Lansing Saturday, when Michigan State and Ohio State settle the East Division title. The Buckeyes have a huge revenge factor in this game, as they were 12-0 when MSU knocked them out of the BCS Championship picture last year with a stunning 34-24 upset win.

We have removed Penn State and Northwestern from the bowl picture this week, and we have kept Illinois and added Michigan to the mix. With nine bowls guaranteed and ten bowls likely with two league teams playing in Big Six bowls, there will be space for all bowl eligible clubs.

1. Orange Bowl: Ohio State (8-0/12-1)
2. Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Michigan State (7-1/10-2)
3. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska (5-3/9-3)
4. Outback Bowl: Iowa (6-2/9-4)
5. Holiday Bowl: Wisconsin (6-2/9-3)
6. Music City Bowl: Maryland (4-4/7-5)
7. San Francisco Bowl: Minnesota (4-4/7-5)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (2-6/6-6)
9. Quick Lane Bowl: Michigan (4-4/6-6)
10. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Illinois (3-5/6-6)

Big 12 Conference
TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State all still hold playoff hopes, but they will all need some help. Even with one SEC team assured of falling out of the top four, Oregon is still in front of this trio, and the Ducks will have defeated Michigan State, UCLA, Stanford, Utah, and probably Arizona State if they finish 12-1.

This league is almost a lock to place two teams in Big Six bowls, even if no team makes the playoffs. With two Big Six bowls plus six other bowl tie-ins, there needs to be eight bowl eligible teams to fill the slots. We believe there will only be six bowl eligible teams, so there will be room for two at-large invitations courtesy of the Big 12.

1. Cotton Bowl: T C U (8-1/11-1)
2. Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (8-1/11-1)
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (6-3/9-3)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia (7-2/9-3)
5. Liberty Bowl: Kansas State (6-3/8-4)
6. Cactus Bowl: Oklahoma State (4-5/6-6)

Pac-12 Conference
Oregon controls its own destiny in our opinion. If the Ducks win out, at 12-1, they have about a 97% chance of finishing in the top four.

Arizona State needs help to move into the top four even if they win out by defeating Notre Dame, Oregon State, Arizona, and Oregon. Coach Todd Graham may be the best coach under the radar, as he has built winners at Rice, Tulsa, and Pittsburgh prior to coming to Tempe. Arizona State is the largest undergraduate university in FBS football, and the means are there for Graham to make this one of the top programs in the nation.

The Pac-12 has only seven guaranteed bowl bids, because a proposed bowl at the Los Angeles Coliseum around Christmas never materialized. This conference will be the top banana in the at-large priority mix. We believe there will be room for one Pac-12 to accept an at-large bowl bid.

1. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: Oregon (8-1/12-1)
2. Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State (8-1/11-2)
3. Alamo Bowl: U S C (7-2/9-3)
4. Holiday Bowl: U C L A (6-3/9-3)
5. San Francisco Bowl: Washington (5-4/8-4)
6. Sun Bowl: Arizona (5-4/8-4)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (5-4/8-4)
8. Cactus Bowl: Stanford (5-4/7-5)
9. Texas Bowl (at-large invitation): California (3-6/6-6)

Southeastern Conference
The “Good Ole Boys” down South would argue that the top four teams in the SEC should be the four playoff teams, and with Alabama, Mississippi State, and Auburn this season, they might be 75% correct.

However, we see no possibility where three SEC teams will make the playoffs in year one. If it were to happen, there would be hell to pay by the other leagues.

In all honesty, the playoffs should be eight deep, and we believe this will happen in the next five or six years, thus allowing for automatic bids for all the Power 5 conference champions.

When Alabama has something to play for in November, you never bet against the Crimson Tide. They may be out of favor following their loss to Ole Miss and narrow win over Arkansas, but they are still Alabama, just like Kentucky in basketball.

Auburn is probably a little better in 2014 than they were last year when they advanced to the National Championship Game, but the Tigers still must face the Tide in Tuscaloosa.

Mississippi State is only the top-rated team in the land, but the Bulldogs have a November 15 date in Tuscaloosa and figure to end their reign at the top that day. Even a dejected Ole Miss squad could spoil the Maroons playoff chances at the Egg Bowl.

LSU’s season is on the line this Saturday night, and you know the Tigers have that magic at Tiger Stadium when the moon is out.

The East is a mess now with Florida knocking Georgia out of the playoff picture. If Georgia loses to Auburn, which is now a good bet, and Missouri falls at Texas A&M or Tennessee, which is also a high probability, and Florida beats South Carolina and Vanderbilt, which is highly probable, then there will be a three-way tie for first in the division. Let’s look at the tiebreaker system to see which team would be fodder for the West Division champion.

1. Head-to-Head: all three teams will be 1-1 against each other.
2. East Division Records: Georgia would be 4-2; Florida would be 5-1; and Missouri would be either 5-1 or 4-2 depending on whether they lost to A&M or UT. If Missouri lost to the Aggies and beat the Vols, then they would lose in the SEC Championship Game. If the Tigers lost to the Vols instead, then Florida would lose in the SEC Championship Game. For now, we believe the Gators will be that unfortunate team, and it will be hard to can Will Muschamp if he take UF to Atlanta on December 6.

With three teams playing in Big Six bowls, the league will not meet its bowl obligations, probably falling short by two, because we believe Kentucky will lose out to finish 5-7, and South Carolina will come up one game short as well.

1. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: Alabama (7-1/12-1)
2. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Mississippi State (7-1/11-1)
3. Cotton Bowl: Auburn (6-2/10-2)
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Missouri (5-3/9-3)
5. Outback Bowl: L S U (5-3/9-3)
6. Gator Bowl: Ole Miss (5-3/9-3)
7. Music City Bowl: Tennessee (4-4/7-5)
8. Liberty Bowl: Georgia (5-3/9-3)
9. Belk Bowl: Florida (5-3/7-5)

See more at http://www.piratings.webs.com

October 21, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowls Coverage

For October 21, 2014

Note: You can find our award-winning ratings at http://www.piratings.webs.com

You can find numerous bowl projection sights on the Internet, so we see no reason to just put forth our projections like 100 others. The PiRate Ratings have always been a little different than other ratings. Our computer ratings use a system other than the actual scores of the games, using unique statistical data to come up with a truer score of every game before adjusting the ratings. Likewise, our bowl projections do not use the same criteria as other projectors.
We try to use our ratings to look forward and determine what the standings will look like on December 7. Then, we try to surmise the “political” nature of the bowls. For instance, you know that the ACC bowls would prefer to invite anybody other than Miami if they have a chance. When you cannot put 5,000 fans in your stadium for a home game against Cincinnati, another likely bowl team, it is not going to give a bowl like the Sun Bowl much faith that the Hurricanes will bring 20,000 fans to El Paso. Likewise, a 10-2 Auburn team is going to garner one of the big Bowl games not in the playoffs (Fiesta, Orange, Peach, or Cotton this year) before a 10-2 Washington team.

What we will do here is cover the bowls by conference. If you want to see the projections like 100 other sites, go to our website at the link below.
http://piratings.webs.com/bowlprojections.htm

Here is where we see the conferences and bowl possibilities for October 21, 2014.
Note: An Asterisk (*) means this is an at-large selection because the conference cannot meet its bowl tie-in obligation due to lack of bowl eligible team.

The Playoffs as we see it today

Sugar Bowl: #1 Ole Miss vs. #4 Ohio St.

Rose Bowl: #2 Florida St. vs. #3 Alabama

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
East Carolina controls its own destiny to become the first Group of 5 conference member to play in one of the Four New Year’s Eve/Day Big Bowls. At 11-1, the Pirates would top a 13-0 Marshall team. ECU has three potential possible upset games yet to play, but the Pirates are clearly better than anybody left on their schedule. Those three tough games to come are against Temple in Philadelphia on November 1; at Cincinnati on Thursday night, November 13; and a Thursday night regular season finale at home against Central Florida.

Central Florida should be on a roll when the Knights roll into Greenville for that big December 4 game. UCF should win nine games, and the Knights figure to be the second bowl selection out of the AAC.

Houston started the season with some trouble, but the Cougars have begun to play their best football of the season in the last few weeks. UH does not face ECU, so chances are slim that Coach Tony Levine’s team can sneak up and take the conference crown.

Cincinnati, Memphis, and Temple all should be bowl eligible, and there will be enough conference bids for all three.

1. Peach Bowl: East Carolina (vs. Notre Dame)
2. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (vs. Kentucky)
3. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (vs. Miami)
4. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (vs. BYU)
5. Military Bowl: Temple (vs. Virginia)
6. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (vs. Rutgers)

Conference USA
Marshall has a clear path to a 13-0 season, but the Thundering Herd still must get past UAB on the road and a possible tough Louisiana Tech team in the C-USA Championship Game. Marshall needs an ECU loss to occur in order to sneak into a possible Peach Bowl invitation.

Louisiana Tech appears to be the class of the West Division, but Bulldogs are no cinch with games still remaining against UAB on the road and Rice at home.

Middle Tennessee is on pace to win seven games and a mild upset over a swooning BYU Cougars team could lift that number to eight and make the Blue Raiders the third choice in the conference bowl pecking order.

The rest of the bowl invitations will go out to the three teams that can get to 6-6. As of today, we predict Rice, UAB, and Florida Atlantic will be those three teams. Failure to get three to 6-6 will help the Sunbelt or MAC.

1. Hawaii Bowl: Marshall (vs. Utah St.)
2. Bahamas Bowl: Louisiana Tech (vs. Toledo)
3. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (vs. Northern Illinois)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Rice (vs. Air Force)
5. Heart of Dallas Bowl: U A B (vs. Arkansas St. *)
6. Independence Bowl: Florida Atlantic * (vs. Georgia Tech)

Mid-American Conference
Toledo appears to be the top team at this point, but the Rockets are not a for-sure selection to win the MAC Championship, as there is some parity in the league this year.

Because there is not dominant team like an undefeated Northern Illinois team, there will definitely be many more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots. We foresee eight bowl eligible MAC teams with three not receiving bowl bids.

Politics and financial priorities will allow a team like Ohio to beat out Buffalo or Central Michigan if they all finish 7-5. Choosing between Ohio and Bowling Green will be tough, but we will take the Bobcats.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (vs. Louisiana Tech)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (vs. Middle Tennessee)
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron (vs. Nevada)
4. Camellia Bowl: Western Michigan (vs. South Alabama)
5. Go Daddy Bowl: Ohio U (vs. Georgia Southern)

Mountain West Conference
Boise State’s upset loss to Air Force has kept the Broncos down at number three or four in the Group of 5 teams vying for the New Year’s Eve/Day bowl bid. The Broncos only other loss it to Ole Miss, which looks a lot better now than it did on August 28. BSU’s only bump in the road ahead is a home finale against Utah State on November 29.

Utah State, Colorado State, and Air Force are certainly going bowling from the Mountain Division. In the West Division, it looks like three teams could finish tied at 5-3. One of the three, Fresno State as of this week, is likely not to receive a bowl bid.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (vs. Stanford)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (vs. Oregon St. *)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Utah St. (vs. Marshall)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Air Force (vs. Rice)
5. New Orleans Bowl: San Diego St. (vs. Louisiana-Lafayette)
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: Nevada (vs. Akron)

Sunbelt Conference
This is the only Group of Five conference with zero chance of having a team play in a New Year’s Eve/Day bowl. Georgia Southern had their chances, blowing second half leads to North Carolina State and Georgia Tech. The Eagles appear to be the class of the league this year, with Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State just behind. GSU does not play either team this year and should run the table in league play.

UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State should receive some form of bowl invitation, be it from a conference tie-in or as an at-large. (Note—this was written before these two teams faced off Tuesday night.)

South Alabama may finish a game or even two behind Louisiana-Monroe and may finished tied with Texas State, but the Jaguars figure to earn the Camellia Bowl bid just up the road in Montgomery with six or more wins.

Texas State could luck into an at-large bowl invitation, since it appears there will be some Lone Star State bowl games needing an at-large team.

1. Go Daddy Bowl: Georgia Southern (vs. Ohio U)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (vs. San Diego St.)
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (vs. Western Michigan)
4. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Arkansas St. * (vs. U A B)
5. Texas Bowl: Texas St. * (vs. Texas A&M)

Independents
For Notre Dame, please see the Atlantic Coast Conference

The Army artillery has come up a mile short of its target this year, so the Black Knights will once again fail to achieve bowl eligibility. The Navy’s ship is taking on water quickly and appears headed to the bottom of the ocean floor. Look for the Armed Forces and Poinsettia Bowls to look elsewhere.

BYU is sinking in quicksand since the loss of their star quarterback, but the Cougars already had enough wins in the bank to see bowl eligibility.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (vs. Cincinnati)

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference (& Notre Dame)
Florida State has two tiny hurdles left to cross before waltzing into the playoffs. The Seminoles play at Louisville a week from Thursday, and they will more than likely face Duke in the ACC Championship Game. FSU has the best chance of any FBS team of running the table this season.

Notre Dame might lose to USC, but we believe the Fighting Irish still earn a New Year’s Eve/Day bowl bid at 10-2. Clemson will not be so lucky if the Irish end up 10-2, for a 10-2 Tiger team would not get into one of the Big Six bowls.

Duke could repeat as Coastal Division champions, but the Blue Devils still appear to be a two to three touchdown underdog to FSU. Any of the six Coastal teams could finish bowl eligible, and we believe six of the seven will. The bowl representatives hope the one that doesn’t is Miami, but the Hurricanes have the look of a 6-6 team. This week, we select North Carolina to finish 5-7.

1. Rose Bowl: Florida St. (vs. Alabama)
2. Peach Bowl: Notre Dame (vs. East Carolina)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (vs. Kansas St.)
4. Capital One Bowl ^: Clemson (vs. Mississippi St.)
5. Gator Bowl: Louisville (vs. South Carolina)
6. Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech (vs. Tennessee)
7. Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh (vs. Arizona St.)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (vs. Penn St.)
9. Military Bowl: Virginia (vs. Temple)
10. Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech (vs. Florida Atlantic *)
11. Quick Lane Bowl: North Carolina St. (vs. Maryland)
12. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (vs. Central Florida

^: If a Big Ten team plays in the Orange Bowl as the SEC opponent, the Capital One Bowl can issue a bid to an ACC Team

Big Ten Conference
Michigan State and Ohio State are headed to a major clash in East Lansing on November 8, and the winner can back into a playoff spot if they win out and finish 12-1. Nebraska has a minor chance to sneak in if the Cornhuskers run the table and beat the Michigan State-Ohio State winner in the conference title game.

We have removed one team from the total here this week, as we now believe that Northwestern could lose to Purdue, and neither team will win six games. Indiana and Illinois appear to have too much left to do to get to six wins. Michigan is not even among the possibilities.

1. Sugar Bowl: Ohio St. (vs. Ole Miss)
2. Orange Bowl: Michigan St. (vs. Georgia)
3. Outback Bowl: Nebraska (vs. Auburn)
4. Holiday Bowl: Wisconsin (vs. Arizona)
5. Music City Bowl: Minnesota (vs. L S U)
6. San Francisco Bowl: Iowa (vs. U C L A)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (vs. Boston College)
8. Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland (vs. North Carolina St.)
9. Armed Forces Bowl: Rutgers (vs. Houston)

Big 12 Conference
That hissing sound you heard the last two weeks was the sound of the Big 12 Conference balloon losing all its playoff air. TCU fell out of the picture when they blew a 21-point lead to Baylor. Then Baylor and Oklahoma fell out of the race with bad losses last week.

Kansas State could sneak into the picture if the Wildcats run the table, beating TCU and Baylor, both on the road. We don’t see that happening.

Because Texas and Texas Tech do not have favorable remaining schedules and appear to be headed to losing seasons, the Big 12 will only have six bowl eligible teams, and even though none will make the playoffs, two should earn Big Six bowl bids. That will leave two bowls Texas and Armed Forces) looking for at-large invitees.

1. Fiesta Bowl: T C U (vs. U S C)
2. Cotton Bowl: Baylor (vs. Oregon)
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (vs. Washington)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Kansas St. (vs. Duke)
5. Liberty Bowl: West Virginia (vs. Missouri)
6. Cactus Bowl: Oklahoma St. (vs. Utah)

Pac-12 Conference
It is going to be very tough for a Pac-12 team to make the playoffs this year. Oregon could do so by running the table, but the Ducks seem to have a defensive breakdown once a month, and we see one more loss in their future. Utah and Arizona still have just one loss, but we see multiple losses ahead for both.

USC may be the best team on the coast, but the Trojans have two losses and appear to have no chance to earn a spot in the playoffs. UCLA, Washington, Arizona State, Stanford, and Oregon State should join the others mentioned in a bowl. One will have to receive an at-large invitation, but there will be one available for sure.

1. Fiesta Bowl: U S C (vs. T C U)
2. Cotton Bowl: Oregon (vs. Baylor)
3. Alamo Bowl: Washington (vs. Oklahoma)
4. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (vs. Wisconsin)
5. San Francisco Bowl: U C L A (vs. Iowa)
6. Sun Bowl: Arizona St. (vs. Pittsburgh)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Stanford (vs. Boise St.)
8. Cactus Bowl: Utah (vs. Oklahoma St.)
9. Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon St. * (vs. Colorado St.)

Southeastern Conference
The league everybody else likes to hate can seriously stake a claim to having the top four teams in the nation and possibly top five teams. We do not believe Florida State could finish in the top half of the West Division standings this year.

In fact, our Mean ratings this week have Ole Miss, Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State as the top four teams. The SEC will get no more than two teams into the playoffs, because the rest of the FBS leagues would pick up their marbles and go home if more than two make it.

Our ratings show Ole Miss to be the hands-down best team in the nation at the present time, and Alabama is right there just behind. Auburn lost at Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs are still undefeated, but our ratings believe the Maroon and White will lose to both Alabama and Ole Miss.

Georgia is the wildcard in the hunt, as the Bulldogs need only beat Auburn to avoid another loss. At 7-1/11-1, UGA is one win away from a playoff spot.

Last week, Kentucky showed signs of a possible upcoming swoon, where the Wildcats could have to claw to that sixth win. Tennessee will be looking at a November where the Vols must go 3-1, but the schedule gives the Orange and White four winnable November games.

South Carolina and Missouri have shown numerous weaknesses but both teams will become bowl eligible. LSU and Texas A&M will join this group in the lower pecking order.

Florida appears to be headed to a 5-6 season, and the cancelled game with Idaho will not be made up, so Will Muschamp will go out with consecutive losing seasons in Gainesville, and the Gators will look hard at trying to lure Art Briles away from Baylor. And, it will mean that there will be one bowl (Independence) available to another team as an at-large selection.

1. Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss (vs. Ohio St.)
2. Rose Bowl: Alabama (vs. Florida St.)
3. Orange Bowl: Georgia (vs. Michigan St.)
4. Capital One Bowl: Mississippi St. (vs. Clemson)
5. Outback Bowl: Auburn (vs. Nebraska)
6. Gator Bowl: South Carolina (vs. Louisville)
7. Music City Bowl: L S U (vs. Minnesota)
8. Liberty Bowl: Missouri (vs. West Virginia)
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (vs. Texas St. *)
10. Belk Bowl: Tennessee (vs. Virginia Tech)
11. Birmingham Bowl: Kentucky (vs. Memphis)

Teams that should be bowl eligible but not invited to bowls: Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Fresno St., and Louisiana-Monroe

December 19, 2013

PiRate Ratings–2013-14 College Football Bowl Preview

The Bowl Simulator Returns

We were fortunate this week to get a turn on the master computer and simulate the 35 bowl games.  We simulated each bowl 100 times and will present the number of wins for both sides, the average score for both sides, and the outlier scores for both sides on all 35 games.

 

In addition, we will present the normal three PiRate Ratings, as well as viewing information so you can know when and where to tune in.

 

Simulated Playoffs

While we were at it, we simulated the PiRate Version of the NCAA playoffs, as well as the future actual version of four teams.  Check back for the results of those two tournaments on Friday afternoon.

 

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

New Mexico

12/21/2013

Albuquerque

2:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Colorado St. (7-6) vs. Washington St. (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Washington St. 74  Colorado St. 26

Average Score

Washington St. 33.9  Colorado St. 24.6

Outlier A

Washington St. 52-24

Outlier B

Colorado St. 38-33

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Washington St. by 6.9

PiRate Mean

Washington St. by 6.0

PiRate Bias

Washington St. by 6.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME—ET

TV

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

12/21/2013

Las Vegas

3:30pm

ABC

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Fresno St. (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

USC 68  Fresno St. 32

Average Score

USC 30.9  Fresno St. 26.6

Outlier A

USC 45 Fresno St. 24

Outlier B

Fresno St. 37 USC 21

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

USC by 10.7

PiRate Mean

USC by 7.3

PiRate Bias

USC by 10.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Famous Idaho Potato

12/21/2013

Boise, ID

5:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

San Diego St. (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Buffalo 53  San Diego St. 47

Average Score

Buffalo 25.3  San Diego St. 24.2

Outlier A

Buffalo 34-10

Outlier B

San Diego St. 27-13

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Buffalo by 6.0

PiRate Mean

Buffalo by 9.2

PiRate Bias

Buffalo by 6.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

New Orleans

12/21/2013

New Orleans

9:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

UL-Lafayette (8-4) vs. Tulane (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Tulane 54  UL-Lafayette 46

Average Score

Tulane 27.4  UL-Lafayette 26.2

Outlier A

Tulane 35-13

Outlier B

UL-Lafayette 27-16

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Tulane by 2.8

PiRate Mean

Tulane by 4.7

PiRate Bias

Tulane by 3.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

12/23/2013

St. Petersburg

2:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

East Carolina 89  Ohio 11

Average Score

East Carolina 37.3  Ohio 22.7

Outlier A

East Carolina 61-20

Outlier B

Ohio 34-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

East Carolina by 19.9

PiRate Mean

East Carolina by 18.9

PiRate Bias

East Carolina by 20.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Hawaii

12/24/2013

Honolulu

8:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Boise St. (8-4) vs. Oregon St. (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Oregon St. 52  Boise St. 48

Average Score

Oregon St. 26.2  Boise St. 25.5

Outlier A

Oregon St. 38-20

Outlier B

Boise St. 40-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oregon St. by 9.6

PiRate Mean

Oregon St. by 5.0

PiRate Bias

Oregon St. by 7.0

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Little Caesars Pizza

12/26/2013

Detroit

6:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Bowling Green (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Bowling Green 60  Pittsburgh 40

Average Score

Bowling Green 33.9  Pittsburgh 29.7

Outlier A

Bowling Green 44-20

Outlier B

Pittsburgh 34-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Bowling Green by 11.0

PiRate Mean

Bowling Green by 13.3

PiRate Bias

Bowling Green by 12.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Poinsettia

12/26/2013

San Diego

9:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Utah St. (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Utah St. 53  Northern Illinois 47

Average Score

Northern Illinois 32.7  Utah St. 32.4

Outlier A

Utah St. 42-21

Outlier B

Northern Illinois 48-20

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Utah St. by 3.8

PiRate Mean

Utah St. by 0.4

PiRate Bias

Utah St. by 4.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Military Bowl

12/27/2013

Washington, DC

2:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Maryland (7-5) vs. Marshall (9-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Marshall 54  Maryland 46

Average Score

Marshall 27.3  Maryland 26.7

Outlier A

Marshall 35-14

Outlier B

Maryland 27-10

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Marshall by 1.0

PiRate Mean

Marshall by 1.2

PiRate Bias

Marshall by 1.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Texas

12/27/2013

Houston

6:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Minnesota (8-4) vs. Syracuse (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Minnesota 59  Syracuse 41

Average Score

Minnesota 19.7  Syracuse 16.6

Outlier A

Minnesota 27-3

Outlier B

Syracuse 20-9

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Minnesota by 7.8

PiRate Mean

Minnesota by 13.1

PiRate Bias

Minnesota by 7.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

12/27/2013

San Francisco

9:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Washington (8-4) vs. BYU (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Washington 64  BYU 36

Average Score

Washington 29.4  BYU 25.5

Outlier A

Washington 31-13

Outlier B

BYU 28-18

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Washington by 10.6

PiRate Mean

Washington by 7.8

PiRate Bias

Washington by 10.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Pinstripe

12/28/2013

Bronx

12:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Rutgers (6-6) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Notre Dame 88  Rutgers 12

Average Score

Notre Dame 36.7  Rutgers 20.4

Outlier A

Notre Dame 48-7

Outlier B

Rutgers 28-22

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Notre Dame by 20.4

PiRate Mean

Notre Dame by 16.4

PiRate Bias

Notre Dame by 19.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Belk

12/28/2013

Charlotte

3:20pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Cincinnati 52  North Carolina 48

Average Score

Cincinnati 27.0 North Carolina 26.2

Outlier A

Cincinnati 34-12

Outlier B

North Carolina 28-13

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

North Carolina by 2.1

PiRate Mean

North Carolina by 2.5

PiRate Bias

North Carolina by 3.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Russell Athletic

12/28/2013

Orlando

6:45pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Louisville (11-1) vs. Miami (9-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Miami 56 Louisville 44

Average Score

Miami 30.4  Louisville 27.2

Outlier A

Miami 38-20

Outlier B

Louisville 41-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Louisville by 0.5

PiRate Mean

Miami by 0.8

PiRate Bias

Louisville by 0.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

12/28/2013

Tempe, AZ

10:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. Michigan (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Michigan 50 Kansas St. 50

Average Score

Michigan 25.6  Kansas St. 25.3

Outlier A

Michigan 38-17

Outlier B

Kansas St. 28-6

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Kansas St. by 0.8

PiRate Mean

Michigan by 6.7

PiRate Bias

Kansas St. by 0.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Armed Forces

12/30/2013

Ft. Worth, TX

11:45am

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Navy (8-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Navy 61  Middle Tennessee 39

Average Score

Navy 32.9  Middle Tennessee 27.1

Outlier A

Navy 40-21

Outlier B

Middle Tennessee 37-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Navy by 8.5

PiRate Mean

Navy by 5.9

PiRate Bias

Navy by 8.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Music City

12/30/2013

Nashville

3:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Ole Miss (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ole Miss 73  Georgia Tech 27

Average Score

Ole Miss 38.2  Georgia Tech 29.7

Outlier A

Ole Miss 49-20

Outlier B

Georgia Tech 38-23

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ole Miss by 6.4

PiRate Mean

Ole Miss by 3.8

PiRate Bias

Ole Miss by 5.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Alamo

12/30/2013

San Antonio

6:45pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Oregon 84  Texas 16

Average Score

Oregon 43.7  Texas 28.4

Outlier A

Oregon 62-31

Outlier B

Texas 41-32

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oregon by 6.6

PiRate Mean

Oregon by 10.2

PiRate Bias

Oregon by 7.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Holiday

12/30/2013

San Diego

10:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Arizona St. (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Arizona St. 78  Texas Tech 22

Average Score

Arizona St. 32.0  Texas Tech 24.7

Outlier A

Arizona St. 30-10

Outlier B

Texas Tech 27-19

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Arizona St. by 18.8

PiRate Mean

Arizona St. by 22.6

PiRate Bias

Arizona St. by 19.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

12/31/2013

Shreveport, LA

12:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Boston College (7-5) vs. Arizona (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Arizona 68  Boston College 32

Average Score

Arizona 25.6  Boston College 23.8

Outlier A

Arizona 35-17

Outlier B

Boston College 24-7

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Arizona by 12.6

PiRate Mean

Arizona by 8.6

PiRate Bias

Arizona by 10.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Sun

12/31/2013

El Paso, TX

2:00pm

CBS

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. UCLA (9-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

UCLA 82  Virginia Tech 18

Average Score

UCLA 31.3  Virginia Tech 21.6

Outlier A

UCLA 48-14

Outlier B

Virginia Tech 24-16

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

UCLA by 14.6

PiRate Mean

UCLA by 9.7

PiRate Bias

UCLA by 14.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Liberty

12/31/2013

Memphis

4:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Mississippi St. (6-6) vs. Rice (10-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Mississippi St. 57  Rice 43

Average Score

Mississippi St. 27.7  Rice 23.9

Outlier A

Mississippi St. 34-13

Outlier B

Rice 34-20

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Mississippi St. by 15.0

PiRate Mean

Mississippi St. by 5.3

PiRate Bias

Mississippi St. by 10.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Chick-fil-A

12/31/2013

Atlanta

8:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Texas A&M 91  Duke 9

Average Score

Texas A&M 42.5  Duke 22.4

Outlier A

Texas A&M 56-10

Outlier B

Duke 34-29

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Texas A&M by 12.9

PiRate Mean

Texas A&M by 8.7

PiRate Bias

Texas A&M by 11.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Heart Of Dallas

1/1/2014

Dallas

12:00pm

ESPN-U

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

North Texas (8-4) vs. UNLV (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

North Texas 62  UNLV 38

Average Score

North Texas 28.2  UNLV 22.8

Outlier A

North Texas 38-17

Outlier B

UNLV 34-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

North Texas by 10.8

PiRate Mean

North Texas by 11.7

PiRate Bias

North Texas by 10.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Gator

1/1/2014

Jacksonville

12:00pm

ESPN-2

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Nebraska (8-4) vs. Georgia (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Nebraska 54  Georgia 46

Average Score

Nebraska 33.2  Georgia 33.0

Outlier A

Nebraska 41-23

Outlier B

Georgia 38-22

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Georgia by 9.3

PiRate Mean

Georgia by 9.0

PiRate Bias

Georgia by 10.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Outback

1/1/2014

Tampa

1:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

LSU (9-3) vs. Iowa (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

LSU 58  Iowa 42

Average Score

LSU 26.7  Iowa 24.3

Outlier A

LSU 31-10

Outlier B

Iowa 27-10

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

LSU by 13.7

PiRate Mean

LSU by 12.4

PiRate Bias

LSU by 14.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Capital One

1/1/2014

Orlando

1:00pm

ABC

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

South Carolina 60  Wisconsin 40

Average Score

South Carolina 26.1  Wisconsin 23.7

Outlier A

South Carolina 34-14

Outlier B

Wisconsin 30-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

South Carolina by 0.8

PiRate Mean

South Carolina by 1.9

PiRate Bias

South Carolina by 0.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Rose

1/1/2014

Pasadena, CA

5:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Michigan St. (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Stanford 53  Michigan St. 47

Average Score

Stanford 23.7  Michigan St. 23.4

Outlier A

Stanford 27-7

Outlier B

Michigan St. 24-9

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Stanford by 8.9

PiRate Mean

Stanford by 2.6

PiRate Bias

Stanford by 8.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Fiesta

1/1/2014

Glendale, AZ

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Baylor (11-1) vs. Central Florida (11-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Baylor 94  Central Florida 6

Average Score

Baylor 43.6  Central Florida 20.8

Outlier A

Baylor 61-17

Outlier B

Central Florida 31-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Baylor by 21.1

PiRate Mean

Baylor by 11.6

PiRate Bias

Baylor by 21.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Sugar

1/2/2014

New Orleans

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Alabama (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Alabama 79  Oklahoma 21

Average Score

Alabama 30.1  Oklahoma 20.0

Outlier A

Alabama 34-7

Outlier B

Oklahoma 26-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Alabama by 17.0

PiRate Mean

Alabama by 18.5

PiRate Bias

Alabama by 17.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Cotton

1/3/2014

Arlington, TX

7:30pm

Fox

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Missouri (11-2) vs. Oklahoma St. (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Missouri 53 Oklahoma St. 47

Average Score

Missouri 29.9  Oklahoma St. 29.1

Outlier A

Missouri 41-22

Outlier B

Oklahoma St. 38-25

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oklahoma St. by 4.3

PiRate Mean

Missouri by 1.9

PiRate Bias

Oklahoma St. by 4.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Orange

1/3/2014

Miami

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Clemson (10-2) vs. Ohio St. (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ohio St. 76  Clemson 24

Average Score

Ohio St. 37.6  Clemson 29.4

Outlier A

Ohio St. 45-20

Outlier B

Clemson 34-26

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ohio St. by 5.7

PiRate Mean

Ohio St. by 4.2

PiRate Bias

Ohio St. by 4.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

BBVA Compass Bowl

1/4/2014

Birmingham

1:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Vanderbilt (8-4) vs. Houston (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Houston 58  Vanderbilt 42

Average Score

Houston 27.4  Vanderbilt 25.8

Outlier A

Houston 34-17

Outlier B

Vanderbilt 38-23

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Vanderbilt by 3.8

PiRate Mean

Houston by 3.2

PiRate Bias

Vanderbilt by 2.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

GoDaddy.com

1/5/2014

Mobile, AL

9:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Ball St. (10-2) vs. Arkansas St. (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ball St. 61  Arkansas St. 39

Average Score

Ball St. 32.7  Arkansas St. 27.0

Outlier A

Ball St. 40-21

Outlier B

Arkansas St. 33-14

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ball St. by 11.2

PiRate Mean

Ball St. by 15.0

PiRate Bias

Ball St. by 12.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

BCS Championship

1/6/2014

Pasadena, CA

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Florida St. (13-0) vs. Auburn (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Florida St. 55  Auburn 45

Average Score

Florida St. 39.7  Auburn 38.8

Outlier A

Florida St. 49-24

Outlier B

Auburn 52-37

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Florida St. by 12.8

PiRate Mean

Florida St. by 17.2

PiRate Bias

Florida St. by 14.0

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

Teams in Italics are at-large selections

 

1 Little Caesar’s Simulation went 4 OT

 

1 Belk Bowl Simulation went 3 OT

 

2 Gator Bowl Simulations went 3 OT

 

1 Cotton Bowl Simulation went 5 OT

 

1 National Championship Game went 3 OT

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