The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last week, our special money line parlays delivered mixed results.  If you chose to play Duke and Baylor in your upset parlay, you enjoyed a nice bonanza.  If you added or chose Kansas State or Indiana, then your imaginary investment was shredded.

We did not issue any money line parlay picks in our regular weekly picks yesterday.  We decided to save them for this post.  We just want to stress that these selections are totally off the wall long shots at odds of better than +150.  In other words, they are not likely to win, even though they always look handsome on paper.

We have chosen three college parlays and one NFL parlay this week.  Take a look.

 

Money Line Parlay #1  Odds: +160

San Diego State over Colorado State

UAB over Rice

Texas over West Virginia

Miami (Fla.) over Virginia Tech

 

 

Money Line Parlay #2  Odds: +162

Auburn over Florida

North Carolina over Georgia Tech

Maryland over Rutgers

 

 

Money Line Parlay #3  Odds: +198

Colorado over Arizona

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan

Oklahoma State over Texas Tech

 

 

Money Line Parlay #4  Odds: +230

Chicago over Oakland

New Orleans over Tampa Bay

LA Chargers over Denver

 

 

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September 27, 2019

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last Friday, we issued a special Money Line Parlay play that went off at +250, and it won.  We had help getting the five winning teams at relatively low odds together.  But, it was up to us to put the parlay together, as none of the “Sharps” that tutored us on how to play smarter actually ended up with this parlay (until one person saw it on this site and did play a small wager on it.

This week, we are swimming in the deep end without the swim instructors.  Can we find another rare gem with a big payout?  We doubt it, but here goes any way.

Remember, the members of the PiRate Ratings NEVER wager money on the picks we issue; actually, we just don’t wager at all, and if you are planning to wager real money, please do not do so based on what you read here.

Even the top Sharps that are now teaching us more about what we have been doing wrong in recent years only win about 62 to 65% of their wagers, and they wager 10-20 games a week.  If you took their advice but only chose a couple of their wagers, the chances that you’d win big would be minimal, because they have to play double digit games a week to avoid risk and let the law of averages tilt to their side.

Since only about 1% of those that wager regularly are profitable, and since 99% of these winners wouldn’t think of giving you advice, realize that practically every service out there that is marketing their talents to you are profiting off your money and not their wagers.  If they were really successful players, they would never offer their advice to the public.  They’d keep it to themselves and selfishly continue to win.

Now that you know that we are giving you these picks, you should understand these two things.

  1. We are not part of the 1% of Sharps that enjoy 6-figure and 7-figure annual careers, as we do not wager one cent.

  2. Our selections provided to you for free are worth exactly what you paid for it.  If we really knew what we were doing, then we might be in Las Vegas with some of our friends placing wagers and never telling anybody else what we selected.

 

This week’s theme is trying to find incredible value betting a parlay of underdogs.  We looked at all the college games this week and isolated on five teams we believe stand decent chances to win outright as underdogs.  

We actually issued individual Money Line selections on each of these five teams in individual plays, because we feel like three of these teams should pull the actual upset.

The five games where we have studied the personnel groupings and looked for extras like teams playing a sandwich game between two more important games involve these games.

 

Marshall over Cincinnati

Duke over Virginia Tech

Kansas State over Oklahoma State

Baylor over Iowa State

North Carolina State over Florida State.

 

You can play each of these game as singular money line plays and get better than +120 odds on each team.

At the time of this writing, you can get Duke at +125 at a couple of the big books in Nevada.  You can get North Carolina State at +210.  Both Marshall and Kansas State can be found at +165.  Baylor can be wagered at +130.

What if you began combining these teams into 2 or 3 game parlays?  The potential odds are incredible.  Yes, the potential for winning is minimal, but for a little pretend money, you could make a pretend killing if you pick the right 2 or 3 teams.

There’s the rub.  If you play all five teams as single money line upset choices, you stand a decent chance of making a minor imaginary profit.  But, if just one of the potential big payout parlays pays off, you could make five times what you put in.

Let’s look at some examples.  We can’t list them all, as there are too many combinations.

 

 

2-Game Parlays

Marshall over Cincinnati and Duke over Virginia Tech: +485

Marshall over Cincinnati and Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: +496

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St. & North Carolina St. over Florida St.: +722

 

 

3-Game Parlays

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St., Baylor over Iowa St., & NC ST. over Florida St.: +1790

Marshall, Kansas St., and North Carolina St. all in upset wins: +2036

Have fun making combinations of these games.  Here’s the complete crazy parlay where you combine all five of these teams.

If you bet Marshall, Kansas St., North Carolina St., Baylor, and Duke all to win in upsets, the money line parlay payout would be:

 

+10953

Yes, if you were crazy enough to put $100 in Nevada on these five teams to win in upset games, and all five pulled off their upsets, you would cash a winning ticket of $11,053!

If you only put $10 on this parlay, you could cash $1,105.

If you just put that same dollar you use playing Mega Millions, and it won, you’d pocket more than $110, and your chances to win on this parlay are multitudes better than winning the lottery.

—————————————————————————————————————————————-

Did you hear about the guy that bet 89 cents on a ton of games last week on a parlay, and won every game heading into Monday Night Football.  Had the Washington Redskins won that final bet for him, he would have taken that 89 cents and cashed in a half million dollars!

When the Bears won the game, the naive media announced that the poor sap lost.  Without knowing for sure, we bet that this guy won big, maybe even 6-figures.

The media is never the best place to receive information on anything.  In this case, we are confident that the bettor hedged his wager on Monday morning.  Obviously, he probably didn’t have $100,000 to invest on the MNF game, but he probably found a willing money lender to purchase that ticket for 100 grand.

If you had $100,000, and you bought that ticket, then the guy that spent 89 cents just won $99,999.19 on his wager, and he leaves quite happy as a big winner, at least until he realizes his tax bracket just went way up.

The person that bought that potential half-million dollar ticket then played as many different tickets he needed on Monday afternoon until he had $200,000 in wagers on the Bears.  It would have taken him going to multiple books, but it is easily done.

Let’s look at the money lender on Monday afternoon.

  1. $100,000 spent buying the ticket

  2. $200,000 spent buying tickets on the Bears.

If the Redskins had won the last game on that parlay, the lender collects the half million dollar payout and profits by $200,000 since he invested $300,000.

If the Bears had won (which they did), then the half-million dollar parlay is trashed, but the lender cashes in a winning ticket on his Bears bet and receives $400,000.  The profit is only $100,000 in this case.

Technically, the lender could have places additional bets on the Redskins, which would have brought his guaranteed payout to around $135,000 no matter what the outcome, but we just wanted to show you an example in hedging to get a guaranteed win.

If you had a 50% chance of realizing a 33% of 67% return on your investment in 24 hours, you are guaranteeing yourself an average ROI of 50% in one day!  Now, how many of you with some seed money are planning to relocate to Nevada and do some hedge playing?  Alas, we here are more like the 89 cent investor.

September 20, 2019

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , — piratings @ 8:18 am

This is a special late play that the PiRate Ratings are unofficially listing for our fans to peruse as an experimental “sure thing” grouping.

We do not advise anybody to actually play this parlay.  This is just an example to show how one group of so-called sharps are looking into making a hefty profit on a group of games that will give them +250 odds at one particular Vegas book that has made Money Line odds too rewarding for non-squares.

We don’t know if the Sharps are actually playing this parlay.  It was inferred from what one particular Sharp (a female that appeared on this site last year) told our captain in an exchange of football information and tasteless jokes about “Squares.”

Here is what the Captain believed she inferred.  This Money Line parlay does show up at +250 at one particular lesser book in Vegas.

 

Nebraska over Illinois

Boston College over Rutgers

Washington over BYU

Missouri over South Carolina

UAB over South Alabama

 

The thinking to this parlay is:

  1. Nebraska is not undefeated only because of a fluke play that went for big yards.  Illinois does not have the strength in the trenches or speed on the flanks to contain Nebraska’s offense.

  2. The public is putting too much emphasis on BC’s loss to Kansas, in a game they failed to show up, and Rutgers is still the #14 team in the Big Ten by a lot behind #13 Illinois.

  3. BYU is playing their third consecutive tough game against a Power 5 opponent and played the last two in overtime.  They now face a much better UW team that internal power ratings show the Huskies to be more than a touchdown better than the Cougars.

  4. South Carolina’s freshman QB is starting on the road for the first time after facing Alabama in a high-energy game at home.  Missouri QB Kelly Bryant and the Tigers’ offense is looking like it is coming into form at the right time.

  5. UAB had two weeks to prepare for this game after playing subpar in a win at Akron.  USA is still quite inexperienced and not talented enough to win on the road against a quality team like UAB.  The Nebraska game to start the year was one where the Cornhuskers looked like they could walk over the Jags.  By the second half, depth and reality made this game more of a blowout.

This is the reasoning of what the Captain perceives he heard from one particular Sharp who talked about what a group of Sharps felt.  Neither the Captain, nor any other of us on the PiRate ship endorse these picks, and as always, we recommend you invest your hard-earned dollars in long-term value in the stock market.  Over any 10 years, you are virtually guaranteed to be a winner, whereas the odds are always against you in Las Vegas.

August 22, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For August 24, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:35 am

Welcome to the debut of the 2019 PiRate Ratings Picks.  During the football season, we will issue our pretend financial advice for you to read as entertainment purposes only and not to wager real money on games.

We pretend to make $100 wagers on whatever it is we select.  In the past, we have done this with money line parlays, teasers, straight wagers, and regular spread parlays.  Through the years, we have discovered our most successful style of wagering has been playing money line parlays.  At one time, we were successful teasing the totals lines.  13-point, 4-game parlays of teaser totals gave us an incredible hot streak one season when the standard deviation of scores was much lower than normal.

In this decade, there has been higher standard deviation in NFL scores, because the new rule moving extra points back 15 yards has created instability in game scores.

Many years ago, we had a rather impressive result playing the middle in games, but that was when we had permission to release the “outlaw” line before the official opening line.  Without the ability to see the Outlaw line and then the opening line, it was impossible to try to guess which games would see a large enough swing to go with both sides.

Since there are only two games this week, both college games, there is no real play that can be issued with our strategy.  If you take both favorites this week, Florida over Miami and Arizona over Hawaii, the best money line parlay odds you can get today is .6941, which means you would win $169.41 if you bet $100 and the two favorites won.  That means you would get your $100 investment back with $69.41 in profits.  Our philosophy is to only play parlays with odds of +120 or better, meaning you would receive $220  or more on a $100 wager.

In order to play a parlay with better than +120 odds this week, we would have to pick Hawaii or Miami to win outright.  If we selected Florida to beat Miami and Hawaii to upset Arizona, the parlay odds would be around +500 at this very moment.  That means, we would win $600 on a $100 wager if Florida and Hawaii won.

Alas, we are only confident this week of one outcome, that Florida will indeed beat Miami.  The actual point spread is right where we believe it should be, so playing the line is out of the question.

The best Money Line spread available to us at midday Thursday is -290, which means if we wager $100 on this game, if Florida won, we’d get a tiny $34.48 profit.  The reward is too small for the risk.

The totals for these two games do not give us a chance to come up with a playable parlay either, so for Week 0, we are not issuing any official picks.  We prefer to pick our spots and play only games that we are confident in occasionally winning.  If we play Money Line parlays with odds of +120 or better, we can win a smaller percentage of games and still turn a profit.

Let’s say we play 50 games this year with an average parlay odd of +180  Let’s say we get lucky and win 20.  Here’s how that would affect our imaginary bank account.

50 wagers of $100 each = $5,000 investment

20 Wins at +180 = $3,600 in winnings

30 Losses at +180 = $3,000 in losses

$600 profit at the end of the 50 wagers

12% Return on Investment

This 12% would take place in roughly 4 months, so the annualized Return on Investment would be 36%.  Not many investments return 36% in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub: how likely is it that we can win 40% of our Money Line wagers at +180 odds?  The answer at the present time is one year in four, or to re-phrase it, four years ago.  The only solace is that the most recent three years brought imaginary profits as well, just nothing close to an annualized return of 36%.  Our 2018 season profit was so small it is not worth mentioning.  It was better in 2017 and much better in 2016, so the four year trend has been going in the wrong direction.

Ah, but here’s the other rub: We invested imaginary funds in all the years we have issued our selections.  Being 100% accurate and being 0% accurate brings the same outcome on zero real dollars invested.

Last year, we welcomed five of our long time friends to participate in a contest selecting winners against the spread.  It was a close contest all year, and as a group the five turned a small profit.  This year, we are going to have a guest computer program try to pick winners.  We decided to call this program “Davey 19.”  Davey is named for a former quarterback at TCU and for a short time with the Philadelphia Eagles.  Davey was only 5 foot 7 inches tall, but he had the heart of a giant and the fundamentals of a robot, so that’s why we are calling our guest computer program Davey 19 this year.

We will give Davey an identical rule–to make investments in imaginary $100 wagers.  Davey can make any type of selection in college and the NFL.  Davey does have one selection this week.

 

PiRate Picks For August 24, 2019

None   (not enough games for a playable parlay)

 

Davey 19 Selection For August 24, 2019

Hawaii +11 vs. Arizona

 

We do feel like Florida has a better than 60% chance to beat Miami, but the Money Line odd is too low to make enough profit to limit risk.

August 2, 2019

PiRate Ratings Ready To Go Live

Ahoy Mates!  The PiRates have returned from sea this summer and are ready to hoist the football flag on terra firma for 2019-2020.

It took us a bit longer this year with added data hopefully allowing us to refine our preseason ratings’ process.  After more than 100 days of work, we finally have preseason ratings for the 130 FBS teams.

As we have done every year, we will begin previewing the conferences daily from the lowest rated to the highest rated.  Here is the schedule for each of the previews.

Day Date Conference Preview
Friday Aug 9 Conference USA
Saturday Aug 10 Mid-American
Sunday Aug 11 Sun Belt
Monday Aug 12 Mountain West
Tuesday Aug 13 Independents
Wednesday Aug 14 American Athletic
Thursday Aug 15 Atlantic Coast
Friday Aug 16 Pac-12
Saturday Aug 17 Big 12
Sunday Aug 18 Big Ten
Monday Aug 19 Southeastern

Then, on Tuesday, August 20, we will debut our spreads for games involving FBS teams up through Labor Day.  There will be two FBS games on Saturday, August 24, and then the first real week of the season takes place over the Labor Day Holiday Weekend from August 29 through September 2.

As always, we are constantly updating our preseason ratings throughout August as news becomes available concerning personnel changes.  If you are a fan of the Connecticut Huskies, your team has undergone some serious roster moves since the end of Spring Practice, and you have seen some key personnel decide to transfer.

There are also a handful of players that might be awarded immediate eligibility after transferring to a new FBS school.  One or two teams could see a jump of more than one ratings’ point if certain players receive immediate eligibility. allow schools to trade players if both schools have an immediate need for the other school’s player, while their current school has no immediate availability?

 

Some Fun Stuff To Ponder

What if the NCAA allowed schools to trade players if both schools have an immediate need for the other school’s player, while their current school has no immediate need for said players?

Can you imagine if a school like Ohio State had a third string quarterback that would not see meaningful minutes, while they needed a flanker to replace a 1st round draft pick, and then a school like Washington State had seven capable receivers and no quarterback?  What if Ohio State and Washington State could make a trade so that the third string QB at Ohio State can now become the starter at Washington State, while the number five receiver at Washington State can now become the starting flanker with the Buckeyes?

It might have been crazy to consider this 10 years ago, but who knows what the future might bring with players now winning appeals for immediate eligibility for some of the most outlandish reasons like having a disagreeable dormitory environment.  If both of our imaginary players wanted to transfer but were not graduates with immediate eligibility, might the NCAA see merit in allowing two players that would rarely see the field to become starters at another school?

Thanks to your comments to us from our other website, something has been circulating this summer among many of you concerning what will happen with the FBS Playoffs when the current contract expires. This topic has wings.  There has been appreciable mumbling coming forth from the movers and shakers in the college football world.

The former big-time New Year’s Day bowls (Sugar, Cotton/Fiesta, Rose, and Orange) have seen historic low ratings in the years they were not part of the Semifinals of the Playoffs.  The key bowls this year will be played on Saturday, December 28, and the Cotton and Orange Bowls will not be played on New Year’s Day.

These once major epic festivals are almost like the football equivalent of the NIT, and the bowl sponsors are not happy.  The Tournament of Roses Committee is really not happy with their historically low TV ratings, and it has not just affected the game, but the ratings for the parade have been off as well.  I am sure they’d gladly take the old arrangement of the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions and distance themselves from the Playoffs altogether, like they did when the Bowl Coalition did not include the Rose Bowl conferences.  An undefeated Rose Bowl champion would easily be able to claim a national title without appearing in the playoffs, just like Notre Dame won numerous national titles long before they appeared in bowl games.  The Associated Press has awarded National Championships for years, and the national champion in multiple years did not appear in a bowl game.

When the next Playoff contract commences in 2026, you can bet that there will be more than four teams in the playoffs.  It could be six, eight, 12, or 16.  The major bowls will demand that their game stays vitally important every year.  With six teams, five bowls would be needed, but there are six heavyweights, so one would be left out each year.

With eight teams, seven bowls would be needed, which would satisfy the needs of the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach every year.  The seventh site could rotate among the other bowls, throwing a one-time bone to the Citrus, Outback, Holiday, Sun, Alamo, and one or two additional bowls.

At 12 or 16 teams, first round games could be played on the home field of the higher-seeded teams before progressing to the bowls.  This would most likely signal the end of conference championship games, but you could see where the big-time schools would gladly give up conference championship games for playoff games.

There is one other topic that has been circulating in college football fan talk this summer, and that is the idea of a Super Football Division consisting of the top 32 programs.  As an example, the top 32 football powers could form their own conference and play only against each other with a super TV contract and NFL-style playoffs based on standings and not the vote of a Committee.  The talk is that these 32 programs could make so much money in football, that they could fund all their other sports and sort of secede from the current NCAA Division 1.  What this would lead to would be the end of Alabama playing Western Carolina in November and Michigan State playing Western Michigan in September.  Instead, there would be weekly games like  Alabama versus Oklahoma, and Ohio State versus Clemson.  All these super schools would play in stadiums with 75,000 to 110,000 seats.  The TV contract would be more like the NFL at its peak.  Imagine a 12-team NFL style playoff with the top superpowers of the gridiron?

This has been rumored for about a quarter century.  Originally, this idea was brushed aside when the major conferences began to expand.  The current belief is that if any conference expands again, they will only do so to bring in teams from outside their current conference media markets.  In other words, The Big Ten would not want Iowa State with Iowa already in the league.  They might want Oklahoma or Oklahoma State but not both, because those rivals come from the same media market.

Likewise, the SEC would not want to add Clemson or Florida State, as they already have South Carolina and Florida.  However, they would gladly take Virginia Tech and one of the Oklahoma schools.

The organic progression would seem to indicate that in the future, one of the Power 5 conferences could fold and its teams would merge into one of the other majors, and there would be four, 16-team super conferences.  However, the media market expansion would not work, because there would be multiple teams from some states, like Texas, and not enough super conferences to join.  Therefore, it is our belief that the only logical solution to this matter is for the top 32 football programs to go at it on their own.  The current Division 1 could be altered from FBS and FCS to 1 A, 1 AA, and 1 AAA.  The 1 AAA would be the top 32 teams.  The 1 AA would be the current remaining 98 FBS plus the top 30 FCS programs that could now compete without the 32 powers.  1 AAA would be all the remaining teams, and then some D2 and NAIA schools might wish to move up.

An NFL Fan Sent This To Us

One of our biggest fans at this site (we didn’t receive permission from him to name him), opined that there could be more than one NFL team trying to position themselves to be 0-16 in 2020.  Much like the Indianapolis Colts tanking to “Suck for Luck,”  the new slogan we have given this is: “Be Clever and Suck for Trevor.”  Trevor Lawrence will be draft eligible in April of 2021.

That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a nice group of available quarterbacks in 2020, as Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Ehlinger, Jake Fromm, Justin Herbert, and others will be available.  However, Lawrence might be the best QB prospect since John Elway, so the stakes will be high in 2021, and it is likely that the team with the worst record in 2020 could be playoff bound by 2022 and Super Bowl worthy by 2023 and for the next 15 years after that.  Teams like Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland/Las Vegas, and Arizona could be in position to sell off one or two key players and be in position to lose big in 2020.  A team like Green Bay or New Orleans could decide to blow up their aging rosters and be terrible for one year, but it would be the right one year.

Looking For The Next Tom Brady

As much as the Colts benefited from drafting Andrew Luck, they have run out of it in January.  Meanwhile, the almost forgotten draft pick  at #199 in 2000, the inimitable Tom Brady, must keep remodeling his home to store all the hardware he has accrued.

Is there a potential second or third day draft quarterback from this year’s crop that could be the diamond in the rough like Touchdown Tom?

We think there is, and ironically, he hails from Brady’s alma mater.  Shea Patterson might be available into the 5th round, because this next class of quarterbacks is full of very good but not superior guys.  The quantity might eventually prove to be greater than the quality, but we see Patterson as flying under the radar.  He has all the tools needed to play at the next level, and we believe his best ability is still to emerge.  Patterson plays in an offense that will not allow him the opportunity to throw the ball 400+ times in 12 games, but what he does with the 350 or so passes should show the right NFL team that he is worth making a late second day or early third day pick on him.

August 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 0

It’s here!  After a long hot, humid Summer that still wears on, the college football season has a dress rehearsal weekend where you are invited to see a couple of FBS games on Saturday, plus a couple more FBS vs. FCS games.

We still have no word from the two coaches in limbo.  As of this writing, neither Urban Meyer nor D.J. Durkin know their fate for the 2018 season and beyond.  Because of these two coaches being in limbo, so are the PiRate Ratings for Week 1.

We are calling this Week 0, and we are keeping the preseason ratings about where they were when we previewed each of the 10 conferences and the independents.  The six FBS teams in action this weekend have had their ratings tweaked minimally due to some injuries and suspensions, but this has amounted to tenths of a point for each team.

Without further adieu, the PiRates are ready to officially debut with the ratings.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

August 25, 2018
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New Mexico St. Wyoming -13.9 -10.8 -13.7
Colorado St. Hawaii 14.7 14.2 17.4
FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Massachusetts Duquesne 17.4
Rice Prairie View 13.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note: We will not offer retrodictive rankings this season–it is too time-consuming to use this algorithm.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 132.0 129.3 133.8 131.7
2 Clemson 131.7 128.4 132.6 130.9
3 Georgia 130.9 126.3 132.4 129.8
4 Washington 128.1 125.0 130.7 127.9
5 Michigan St. 127.7 125.1 128.1 127.0
6 Ohio St. 125.1 122.3 125.6 124.3
7 Notre Dame 125.6 121.5 123.7 123.6
8 Auburn 122.0 121.2 124.4 122.5
9 Wisconsin 123.1 119.2 123.4 121.9
10 Michigan 121.7 120.6 122.7 121.6
11 Mississippi St. 122.5 119.2 122.7 121.5
12 Penn St. 121.2 117.7 121.6 120.2
13 Stanford 120.3 117.5 121.0 119.6
14 Miami 120.3 118.2 120.0 119.5
15 Oklahoma 119.5 117.7 119.8 119.0
16 Boston College 117.3 113.7 117.2 116.1
17 Oregon 114.4 114.5 115.1 114.7
18 Missouri 114.4 112.7 116.0 114.3
19 Northwestern 114.8 112.6 115.4 114.3
20 Virginia Tech 114.3 113.7 114.0 114.0
21 N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.0 113.6 113.5
22 Texas 113.2 111.9 112.8 112.6
23 S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.2 112.3
24 Florida 112.9 110.6 113.3 112.2
25 Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2
26 Duke 113.3 110.4 112.4 112.1
27 T C U 112.7 112.0 111.5 112.0
28 Iowa 113.2 110.0 112.0 111.7
29 Georgia Tech 112.2 110.9 111.8 111.7
30 U S C 112.5 110.7 111.8 111.7
31 Florida St. 111.5 110.9 111.3 111.2
32 Utah 111.0 109.0 111.9 110.7
33 Central Florida 110.8 110.4 110.7 110.6
34 L S U 110.1 110.3 110.7 110.4
35 Texas A&M 110.7 109.6 110.7 110.3
36 Boise St. 110.2 109.3 110.9 110.1
37 Iowa State 110.7 108.8 110.2 109.9
38 California 110.3 107.5 110.1 109.3
39 West Virginia 110.0 108.8 109.1 109.3
40 Arizona 109.9 107.6 110.0 109.1
41 Wake Forest 109.8 107.5 107.3 108.2
42 Arkansas 109.3 106.4 107.6 107.8
43 Purdue 107.9 106.3 106.6 106.9
44 Kansas St. 107.4 106.0 106.8 106.7
45 Fresno St. 107.0 105.4 106.7 106.4
46 Kentucky 106.8 105.3 106.3 106.1
47 Washington St. 107.0 105.8 105.4 106.1
48 Ole Miss 105.3 105.1 106.1 105.5
49 Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.7 105.4
50 Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2
51 Louisville 105.1 105.3 104.6 105.0
52 Syracuse 106.2 104.2 104.6 105.0
53 Texas Tech 106.0 104.0 104.2 104.7
54 N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
55 Arizona St. 105.4 103.3 103.8 104.2
56 Minnesota 104.7 103.6 104.0 104.1
57 Florida Atlantic 102.0 103.0 103.3 102.8
58 Baylor 102.9 100.6 102.3 101.9
59 U C L A 102.5 102.2 100.0 101.5
60 Virginia 101.5 102.0 99.9 101.1
61 Maryland 102.2 100.2 100.5 101.0
62 Houston 99.9 101.4 101.0 100.8
63 Colorado 98.9 100.4 100.1 99.8
64 Navy 98.7 101.7 98.5 99.7
65 San Diego St. 98.7 99.5 99.8 99.3
66 Nebraska 100.5 98.7 97.8 99.0
67 Tennessee 98.8 99.5 98.4 98.9
68 Wyoming 98.5 98.6 98.8 98.6
69 Utah St. 96.8 98.3 98.1 97.7
70 South Florida 96.0 99.3 96.9 97.4
71 Rutgers 98.4 97.0 96.2 97.2
72 Indiana 97.8 96.3 97.3 97.1
73 Toledo 96.3 98.4 96.4 97.0
74 Northern Illinois 96.3 97.9 96.6 96.9
75 Vanderbilt 96.8 97.5 96.2 96.9
76 BYU 95.9 97.0 96.3 96.4
77 Ohio U 95.1 96.5 96.4 96.0
78 Temple 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
79 Army 95.6 96.4 95.5 95.9
80 Marshall 94.3 97.1 95.0 95.5
81 Buffalo 94.3 96.7 95.4 95.5
82 Louisiana Tech 93.8 96.4 95.2 95.1
83 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 SMU 95.1 93.8 94.0 94.3
85 N. Texas 93.0 96.3 93.6 94.3
86 Illinois 94.0 93.5 92.9 93.5
87 Troy 91.8 93.7 93.7 93.1
88 Miami (O) 91.5 93.9 93.4 92.9
89 Western Michigan 91.5 93.8 92.9 92.8
90 Middle Tennessee 91.4 93.4 93.0 92.6
91 Kansas 93.9 92.3 91.6 92.6
92 Nevada 92.4 92.5 92.6 92.5
93 U A B 91.1 93.6 91.5 92.1
94 Tulsa 91.8 90.3 92.3 91.5
95 Air Force 91.7 91.7 90.9 91.4
96 Massachusetts 89.8 92.4 92.0 91.4
97 Akron 90.5 92.1 90.7 91.1
98 U N L V 89.1 90.8 89.6 89.8
99 Eastern Michigan 89.1 90.5 89.8 89.8
100 Old Dominion 87.5 91.3 89.0 89.3
101 Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2
102 Appalachian St. 87.5 89.1 88.7 88.4
103 UL-Monroe 87.3 86.7 88.1 87.4
104 Cincinnati 87.1 88.5 86.5 87.3
105 Oregon St. 88.5 86.0 86.9 87.1
106 Colo. State 85.6 87.1 86.1 86.3
107 New Mexico 85.7 87.6 85.3 86.2
108 Central Michigan 84.8 88.5 85.2 86.2
109 Bowling Green 85.1 85.4 85.7 85.4
110 Florida Int’l. 82.0 86.8 82.6 83.8
111 Connecticut 84.1 84.4 82.8 83.8
112 N. Mexico St. 82.0 85.3 82.5 83.3
113 Southern Miss. 81.6 85.0 82.1 82.9
114 Georgia Southern 82.5 83.7 82.4 82.9
115 South Alabama 81.4 83.8 82.6 82.6
116 U T S A 80.2 85.6 81.6 82.5
117 East Carolina 83.1 82.2 82.0 82.4
118 W. Kentucky 80.4 84.6 81.2 82.1
119 Kent St. 80.2 81.6 79.5 80.4
120 Louisiana 78.9 81.1 79.9 80.0
121 Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9
122 Ball St. 77.7 80.4 77.4 78.5
123 Charlotte 76.2 78.7 76.3 77.1
124 San Jose St. 76.6 77.4 74.8 76.3
125 Liberty 75.2 73.9 74.2 74.5
126 Coastal Carolina 73.2 76.4 73.6 74.4
127 Hawaii 74.4 76.4 72.2 74.3
128 Rice 71.4 74.5 69.7 71.9
129 Texas State 70.4 73.9 69.9 71.4
130 U T E P 69.3 72.5 68.6 70.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 110.8 110.4 110.7 110.6 0-0 0-0
South Florida 96.0 99.3 96.9 97.4 0-0 0-0
Temple 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9 0-0 0-0
Cincinnati 87.1 88.5 86.5 87.3 0-0 0-0
Connecticut 84.1 84.4 82.8 83.8 0-0 0-0
East Carolina 83.1 82.2 82.0 82.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.7 105.4 0-0 0-0
Houston 99.9 101.4 101.0 100.8 0-0 0-0
Navy 98.7 101.7 98.5 99.7 0-0 0-0
Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.0 94.3 0-0 0-0
SMU 95.1 93.8 94.0 94.3 0-0 0-0
Tulsa 91.8 90.3 92.3 91.5 0-0 0-0
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 131.7 128.4 132.6 130.9 0-0 0-0
Boston College 117.3 113.7 117.2 116.1 0-0 0-0
N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.0 113.6 113.5 0-0 0-0
Florida St. 111.5 110.9 111.3 111.2 0-0 0-0
Wake Forest 109.8 107.5 107.3 108.2 0-0 0-0
Louisville 105.1 105.3 104.6 105.0 0-0 0-0
Syracuse 106.2 104.2 104.6 105.0 0-0 0-0
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 120.3 118.2 120.0 119.5 0-0 0-0
Virginia Tech 114.3 113.7 114.0 114.0 0-0 0-0
Duke 113.3 110.4 112.4 112.1 0-0 0-0
Georgia Tech 112.2 110.9 111.8 111.7 0-0 0-0
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2 0-0 0-0
N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 0-0 0-0
Virginia 101.5 102.0 99.9 101.1 0-0 0-0
ACC Averages 112.0 110.6 111.3 111.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.5 117.7 119.8 119.0 0-0 0-0
Texas 113.2 111.9 112.8 112.6 0-0 0-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2 0-0 0-0
T C U 112.7 112.0 111.5 112.0 0-0 0-0
Iowa State 110.7 108.8 110.2 109.9 0-0 0-0
West Virginia 110.0 108.8 109.1 109.3 0-0 0-0
Kansas St. 107.4 106.0 106.8 106.7 0-0 0-0
Texas Tech 106.0 104.0 104.2 104.7 0-0 0-0
Baylor 102.9 100.6 102.3 101.9 0-0 0-0
Kansas 93.9 92.3 91.6 92.6 0-0 0-0
Big 12 Averages 108.9 107.3 108.1 108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan St. 127.7 125.1 128.1 127.0 0-0 0-0
Ohio St. 125.1 122.3 125.6 124.3 0-0 0-0
Michigan 121.7 120.6 122.7 121.6 0-0 0-0
Penn St. 121.2 117.7 121.6 120.2 0-0 0-0
Maryland 102.2 100.2 100.5 101.0 0-0 0-0
Rutgers 98.4 97.0 96.2 97.2 0-0 0-0
Indiana 97.8 96.3 97.3 97.1 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 123.1 119.2 123.4 121.9 0-0 0-0
Northwestern 114.8 112.6 115.4 114.3 0-0 0-0
Iowa 113.2 110.0 112.0 111.7 0-0 0-0
Purdue 107.9 106.3 106.6 106.9 0-0 0-0
Minnesota 104.7 103.6 104.0 104.1 0-0 0-0
Nebraska 100.5 98.7 97.8 99.0 0-0 0-0
Illinois 94.0 93.5 92.9 93.5 0-0 0-0
Big Ten Averages 110.9 108.8 110.3 110.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 102.0 103.0 103.3 102.8 0-0 0-0
Marshall 94.3 97.1 95.0 95.5 0-0 0-0
Middle Tennessee 91.4 93.4 93.0 92.6 0-0 0-0
Old Dominion 87.5 91.3 89.0 89.3 0-0 0-0
Florida Int’l. 82.0 86.8 82.6 83.8 0-0 0-0
W. Kentucky 80.4 84.6 81.2 82.1 0-0 0-0
Charlotte 76.2 78.7 76.3 77.1 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Louisiana Tech 93.8 96.4 95.2 95.1 0-0 0-0
N. Texas 93.0 96.3 93.6 94.3 0-0 0-0
U A B 91.1 93.6 91.5 92.1 0-0 0-0
Southern Miss. 81.6 85.0 82.1 82.9 0-0 0-0
U T S A 80.2 85.6 81.6 82.5 0-0 0-0
Rice 71.4 74.5 69.7 71.9 0-0 0-0
U T E P 69.3 72.5 68.6 70.1 0-0 0-0
CUSA Averages 85.3 88.5 85.9 86.6
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Overall
Notre Dame 125.6 121.5 123.7 123.6 0-0
BYU 95.9 97.0 96.3 96.4 0-0
Army 95.6 96.4 95.5 95.9 0-0
Massachusetts 89.8 92.4 92.0 91.4 0-0
N. Mexico St. 82.0 85.3 82.5 83.3 0-0
Liberty 75.2 73.9 74.2 74.5 0-0
Indep. Averages 94.0 94.4 94.0 94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 95.1 96.5 96.4 96.0 0-0 0-0
Buffalo 94.3 96.7 95.4 95.5 0-0 0-0
Miami (O) 91.5 93.9 93.4 92.9 0-0 0-0
Akron 90.5 92.1 90.7 91.1 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 85.1 85.4 85.7 85.4 0-0 0-0
Kent St. 80.2 81.6 79.5 80.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.3 98.4 96.4 97.0 0-0 0-0
Northern Illinois 96.3 97.9 96.6 96.9 0-0 0-0
Western Michigan 91.5 93.8 92.9 92.8 0-0 0-0
Eastern Michigan 89.1 90.5 89.8 89.8 0-0 0-0
Central Michigan 84.8 88.5 85.2 86.2 0-0 0-0
Ball St. 77.7 80.4 77.4 78.5 0-0 0-0
MAC Averages 89.4 91.3 90.0 90.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 110.2 109.3 110.9 110.1 0-0 0-0
Wyoming 98.5 98.6 98.8 98.6 0-0 0-0
Utah St. 96.8 98.3 98.1 97.7 0-0 0-0
Air Force 91.7 91.7 90.9 91.4 0-0 0-0
Colo. State 85.6 87.1 86.1 86.3 0-0 0-0
New Mexico 85.7 87.6 85.3 86.2 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 107.0 105.4 106.7 106.4 0-0 0-0
San Diego St. 98.7 99.5 99.8 99.3 0-0 0-0
Nevada 92.4 92.5 92.6 92.5 0-0 0-0
U N L V 89.1 90.8 89.6 89.8 0-0 0-0
San Jose St. 76.6 77.4 74.8 76.3 0-0 0-0
Hawaii 74.4 76.4 72.2 74.3 0-0 0-0
MWC Averages 92.2 92.9 92.2 92.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 128.1 125.0 130.7 127.9 0-0 0-0
Stanford 120.3 117.5 121.0 119.6 0-0 0-0
Oregon 114.4 114.5 115.1 114.7 0-0 0-0
California 110.3 107.5 110.1 109.3 0-0 0-0
Washington St. 107.0 105.8 105.4 106.1 0-0 0-0
Oregon St. 88.5 86.0 86.9 87.1 0-0 0-0
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.5 110.7 111.8 111.7 0-0 0-0
Utah 111.0 109.0 111.9 110.7 0-0 0-0
Arizona 109.9 107.6 110.0 109.1 0-0 0-0
Arizona St. 105.4 103.3 103.8 104.2 0-0 0-0
U C L A 102.5 102.2 100.0 101.5 0-0 0-0
Colorado 98.9 100.4 100.1 99.8 0-0 0-0
Pac-12 Averages 109.1 107.4 108.9 108.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 130.9 126.3 132.4 129.8 0-0 0-0
Missouri 114.4 112.7 116.0 114.3 0-0 0-0
S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.2 112.3 0-0 0-0
Florida 112.9 110.6 113.3 112.2 0-0 0-0
Kentucky 106.8 105.3 106.3 106.1 0-0 0-0
Tennessee 98.8 99.5 98.4 98.9 0-0 0-0
Vanderbilt 96.8 97.5 96.2 96.9 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 132.0 129.3 133.8 131.7 0-0 0-0
Auburn 122.0 121.2 124.4 122.5 0-0 0-0
Mississippi St. 122.5 119.2 122.7 121.5 0-0 0-0
L S U 110.1 110.3 110.7 110.4 0-0 0-0
Texas A&M 110.7 109.6 110.7 110.3 0-0 0-0
Arkansas 109.3 106.4 107.6 107.8 0-0 0-0
Ole Miss 105.3 105.1 106.1 105.5 0-0 0-0
SEC Averages 113.2 111.8 113.6 112.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Troy 91.8 93.7 93.7 93.1 0-0 0-0
Appalachian St. 87.5 89.1 88.7 88.4 0-0 0-0
Georgia Southern 82.5 83.7 82.4 82.9 0-0 0-0
Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9 0-0 0-0
Coastal Carolina 73.2 76.4 73.6 74.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2 0-0 0-0
UL-Monroe 87.3 86.7 88.1 87.4 0-0 0-0
South Alabama 81.4 83.8 82.6 82.6 0-0 0-0
Louisiana 78.9 81.1 79.9 80.0 0-0 0-0
Texas State 70.4 73.9 69.9 71.4 0-0 0-0
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 83.9 82.7 82.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.2 111.8 113.6 112.9
2 ACC 112.0 110.6 111.3 111.3
3 BTEN 110.9 108.8 110.3 110.0
4 P-12 109.1 107.4 108.9 108.5
5 B12 108.9 107.3 108.1 108.1
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
7 IND 94.0 94.4 94.0 94.2
8 MWC 92.2 92.9 92.2 92.4
9 MAC 89.4 91.3 90.0 90.2
10 CUSA 85.3 88.5 85.9 86.6
11 SBC 81.9 83.9 82.7 82.8

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Nevada Southern Miss.
Cure CUSA SBC Navy Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Toledo Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Tulane Western Michigan
Gasparilla AAC CUSA USF North Texas
Bahamas AAC CUSA UCF Florida Atlantic
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Northern Illinois Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Army]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [UCLA]
Doll. General MAC SBC Ohio Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Wyoming
Ht. of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Washington St.
Independence ACC SEC Duke LSU
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Georgia Tech Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/B10 SEC Virginia Tech Tennessee
Camp. World ACC Big 12 Boston College West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. USC
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Miami (Fl) Texas
Military AAC ACC Temple Wake Forest
Sun ACC Pac-12 Florida St. California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. Texas A&M
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Utah
Gator ACC/B10 SEC Northwestern Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Missouri
Fiesta At-large At-large Ohio St. Boise St.
Citrus ACC/B10 SEC Wisconsin Auburn
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. Stanford
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS FBS Alabama Washington
Orange FBS FBS Clemson Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Orange Cotton Clemson Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

This Week’s Selections–This will normally run on Thursdays and include both NCAA and NFL selections.  Since there are only 2 possible games this week, we will not make any selections.  We will not limit ourselves to just Money Line Parlays this season.  We will go with whatever we feel least indecisive about publicly listing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings Ready To Rock and Roll for 2018

Hello Mates

After hours and hours of intensive study, the PiRate Ratings are ready to debut for the 2018 college and professional football season.  We have made some major tweaks to our ratings’ algorithms as more and more analytical data has become available, some of which has contradicted some of our prior beliefs.

The main change we have made this year is how we rate new starters that replaced graduating starters in the NCAA ranks and changes in personnel at the NFL level.  We had been giving too much weight to certain positions and not enough weight at others.  This is why we spent an extra 40-50 hours this season refining our personnel ratings for each starting position of all 130 FBS teams and the 32 NFL teams.

We will begin previewing the NCAA football conferences Friday, August 9, beginning with the lowest overall rated conference and adding a new conference each day, until we culminate with the highest rated league on Sunday, August 19.

We will then debut our point spreads for the first week of college games on Tuesday, August 21, as there are a handful of games on Saturday, August 25.  Then, on August 28, we will have our first full preview for the real first week of the college football season.

Our NFL ratings will debut after the final cuts have been made following the final preseason games, most likely on Monday, September 3.  We will not offer an NFL preview this year.  We have noticed that since the Colin Kaepernick affair began, that the numbers of you reading our NFL-themed presentations have declined by 50% or more, while the number of patrons reading the college ratings and forecasts have increased by almost 50%.  This is about the same as with TV ratings, as the NFL Hall of Fame Game experienced its lowest ratings in over 20 years, and season ticket sales are off at almost every stadium.

For those wondering about out money line and/or teaser selections, we are leaning toward going only with straight wagers this season.  Our 4-year winning streak with the money line picks ended last year, when we could only win 51% of the time, which counts as a loss against the vigorish.  The one thing in our favor, is that we our wagers are always imaginary.  We neither win nor lose no matter the outcome of the games.

We do know there are a number of you that follow this site because you have statistical data that gives you a decided edge in your professional wagering.  Please be advised that our algorithms have experienced major alterations this year, and our ratings are not going to be the same as prior years.

Additionally, we have ended our retrodictive ratings, which required us to keep two separate databases.  These were excellent ways to rank the teams in order, but we know most of you are looking for predictive ratings and not rankings.

Here’s to an exciting season!

November 15, 2017

Making College Football Even Better

This is our annual and somewhat repetitive treatise dealing with how to improve the college football game as it pertains to the current status.

College football is thriving since the advent of the 4-team playoff.  Unfortunately, those in charge made a little mistake in previous years when they scheduled semifinal bowls for the PM hours of New Year’s Eve.  Numerous fans across the nation chose (in some cases it was chosen for them by a significant other), to attend other festivities.  The semifinal games belong on New Year’s Day, which is the slot Americans have associated with bowl games for decades.  The ultimate college football experience starts with celebrating the birth of the new year while camping out on Orange Grove Boulevard in Pasadena with hundreds if not thousands of potentially new friends; then watching the most magnificent two hours of the Tournament of Roses Parade, contemplating how much work has gone into the planning of this event (it actually begins on January 2nd every year), and then realizing that the bands will march and play their instruments for 5 1/2 miles.

One of the neat things to do if you have been to multiple Rose Parades is to stake out a spot on Paloma at the end of the route and then to be the first to view the floats as they go on display near Victory Park.

The culmination of a fantastic event should be the Rose Bowl Game, which should not be played on any other date but New Year’s Day at 3PM PST (Jan. 2 if the first is on a Sunday).

That being said, there are a few other changes that we believe will take a great game and shoot it into orbit.

ISSUE 1–The Playoffs (8 is not enough)

The Playoffs need more teams, so that all Power 5 Conference champions get an automatic bid.  How would you feel if the Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North and then did not have the opportunity to appear in the NFL Playoffs?  Or what if the Houston Astros would have been cut out of the Major League playoffs because Cleveland had a better resume this year?

Here’s how the PiRates see it at the present time.  We are unanimously in favor of giving all five Power Conference champions an automatic invitation to the gridiron dance, while at the same time, we believe the top four teams should receive a reward.  One method could be that the top four would host the next four in an 8-team tournament, but to us that is not enough reward for the top four teams.  Also, there are going to be years were the number 9 team is as good as the number 4 team, and instead of arguing that number 4 should not have been selected, as number 9 was just as deserving, why not extend it out by a half round?  12 is the perfect number of playoff teams.  Most importantly, a 12-team tournament gives the top four teams a bye to the quarterfinals, and they can still host a quarterfinal round game on their home turf.  That is the proper reward for finishing in the top four.

Additionally, a 12-team tournament gives the Group of 5 conferences a chance.  Guarantee that one of the 12 spots goes to the top Group of 5, just like it receives a New Year’s 6 Bowl bid now.  If Central Florida runs the table this year, rather than receive the last slot in the NY6, at least they could be the #12 seed in a 12-team playoff.  If they really are deserving, then they can prove it by taking out the #5 seed in a road contest.

With 5 Power Conference teams and one Group of 5 Conference team receiving automating bids, it leaves six at-large bids.  In our opinion, these six at-large teams should cover the bases for finding teams worthy of playing for all the marbles.  You are talking about teams ranked around #10 overall at this point.  The #10 vs. #11 team is much less important than the #5 and #4 team competing for a spot.

If we were to look at this season, playing out the remaining games for our purposes in this editorial, the playoffs might look something like this:

ACC Champion–Miami

Big 12 Champion–Oklahoma

Big Ten Champion–Wisconsin

Pac-12 Champion–USC

SEC Champion–Alabama

Best Group of 5–Central Florida

At large 1–Georgia

At large 2–Clemson

At large 3–Ohio St.

At large 4–TCU

At large 5–Penn St.

At large 6–Notre Dame

Top teams left out–Washington, Auburn, Michigan St., Boise St., Memphis, Oklahoma St., and LSU

At the present time, Wisconsin would be left out of the Playoff, even though the Badgers are undefeated.  This would be a travesty if a 13-0 UW team failed to make the playoffs while a 2-loss team sneaked in ahead of the Badgers.  Under our format, none of the teams left out would have any legitimate reason to state a case that they deserved to be in, because in actuality the last two seeds probably should not be in the tournament at all.  However, this actually serves a useful purpose.  If seeds 10, 11, and 12 are not all that worthy of being in the playoffs, then their first round hosts (seeds 5, 6, and 7) get a little benefit that seed 8 does not receive.

Seeding the 12 teams above, you would get something like this:

Opening Round

#12 Central Florida at #5 Georgia

#11 Notre Dame at #6 Clemson

#10 USC at #7 Ohio St.

#9 Penn St. at #8 TCU

Quarterfinal Round

UCF-Ga. Winner at #4 Wisconsin

N. Dame-Clemson Winner at #3 Oklahoma

USC-Ohio St. Winner at #2 Miami

Penn St.-TCU Winner at #1 Alabama

From here the playoffs would be back to where they are now–two bowl games for the Semifinals, followed by the National Championship Game.

 

ISSUE 2–The Games are Toooooooo Lonnnnnng

The NFL realized a few years back that their once 2 1/2 hour games had jumped by an hour, because players believed in going out of bounds rather than absorb contact by a quickly moving 300-pound wall of steel.  They began starting the clock after the ball was brought back in bounds by the side judge or line judge.  Thus, the number of scrimmage plays returned to about where it had been for decades, in the 120-130 per game neighborhood.

College football used to see anywhere from 110 to 150 scrimmage plays per game.  Today, one team might run 100 plays, while the other gets 75, and the game becomes the football version of War and Peace.  The game needs to get to a point where 120-150 plays is the average range.  There is one definite way to make the clock move more than it does today–end the stoppage of the clock on first downs.  The NFL does just fine without the clock stopping on first downs.  The sideline official simply places his lead foot on the spot where the scrimmage stick needs to go, and he keeps it there until the man holding the stick arrives, which is almost always before the ball is snapped for the next play.

If you keep the clock moving after a play results in a first down during a typical college football game today, you are not stopping the clock about 45 times per game.  On games where there are fewer first downs, the clock will keep running any way, so this will basically just keep your 1,000 total yard games under 4 hours, while doing little to the 500 total yard games.

ISSUE 3–We Want Real Overtime

The current mode of college overtime can take a hard fought, defensive gem 13-13 tie at the end of regulation and turn it into a 43-41 4OT game that looks like nobody played a lick of defense.

College overtime should start with one team kicking off to the other, and with a touchdown needed on the first drive in order to end the game without the kicking team getting the ball, just like in the NFL.  Play 10 or 15 minutes, and if the teams are still tied, then let it be a tie game.  Tie games can be just as important as wins and losses.  In today’s world of computer technology, a tie game will not throw a monkey wrench into the works.  Here’s a little secret for you: When the PiRates adjust our ratings after every college football game, we adjust all overtime games back to the tie score at the end of regulation and throw out what happens in overtime, with the exception of factoring in the possibilities of key players being injured and if it could deflate the loser in the future.  What goes on in the current overtime does not tell us anything important.  We need to know how teams perform on both sides of the ball on a 100-yard field and not a 25-yard field.  In actuality, it makes the game a different sport entirely.  How would you like a college basketball overtime only played in the half-court with each team getting a possession per overtime?  That is not real basketball either.

ISSUE 4: A Wet Turf Should Never Be Credited With a Tackle

How many times have you seen a player make a brilliant move to get open in the clear only to slip on wet turf or dive to make a play and then cannot advance the ball, even though no defender has participated in the play?  The NFL totally gets this issue.  A player should not be considered tackle, unless a defender is responsible for downing him or has made contact with him while he is on the ground.  Watching a receiver embarrass a defender, make a brilliant highlight-film catch, and then have to settle for a 6-yard gain, when he could get up and run for 25 yards robs not only the player and his team, but also the fans who want to see action.  When that player dives for the ball and makes the catch today, the turf gets the tackle.  Only vegetation can be happy about that.

ISSUE 5: Pass Interference Should Never Be Allowed to Become a Defensive Strategy

In the early 1980’s, the college football world changed defensive pass interference penalties to a maximum of 15 yards and an automatic first down.  In today’s game, there are times when it is beneficial to clobber a receiver and give up the 15 yards and first down rather than give up the 30-yard pass completion or the touchdown catch.  With less than a minute to go in the game when one team needs only a touchdown to win, but they must go 80 yards, every time the offensive team throws at an attempt to gain more than 35 yards, it is wise to merely clobber the receiver if there is any chance the ball will be caught.  You give up 15 yards and a first down, but now the receiver is hearing footsteps.  The next pass may find him not really extending his arms out to try to catch the pass, knowing that the defender can perform as much unnecessary roughness on him and only suffer the interference penalty.

The right thing to do is to restore pass interference penalties back to awarding the offense a first down at the spot of the foul, just like it has remained in the NFL.  Now, if a team interferes on a Hail Mary pass in the end zone, the offense gets the ball at the opponent’s one yard line, and gets another play, even if the clock shows 0:00.  Pass interference should never be allowed to become a strategy.  It is the equivalent of a flagrant foul in basketball on a breakaway drive to the hoop.

 

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Iowa
Minnesota Illinois
#2 @ +169  
Must Win Must Lose
Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette
Notre Dame USC
LSU Ole Miss
#3 @ +127  
Must Win Must Lose
Houston Memphis
Penn St. Michigan
#4 @ +132  
Must Win Must Lose
UAB Charlotte
Purdue Rutgers
Duke Pittsburgh

Good luck.  You’ll need it if you play our parlays.  Shame on you if you wager the paper that they say is real money on these selections.  If you want to gift away $400, you can send it to my Patreon page.

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

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