The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 22, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For August 24, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:35 am

Welcome to the debut of the 2019 PiRate Ratings Picks.  During the football season, we will issue our pretend financial advice for you to read as entertainment purposes only and not to wager real money on games.

We pretend to make $100 wagers on whatever it is we select.  In the past, we have done this with money line parlays, teasers, straight wagers, and regular spread parlays.  Through the years, we have discovered our most successful style of wagering has been playing money line parlays.  At one time, we were successful teasing the totals lines.  13-point, 4-game parlays of teaser totals gave us an incredible hot streak one season when the standard deviation of scores was much lower than normal.

In this decade, there has been higher standard deviation in NFL scores, because the new rule moving extra points back 15 yards has created instability in game scores.

Many years ago, we had a rather impressive result playing the middle in games, but that was when we had permission to release the “outlaw” line before the official opening line.  Without the ability to see the Outlaw line and then the opening line, it was impossible to try to guess which games would see a large enough swing to go with both sides.

Since there are only two games this week, both college games, there is no real play that can be issued with our strategy.  If you take both favorites this week, Florida over Miami and Arizona over Hawaii, the best money line parlay odds you can get today is .6941, which means you would win $169.41 if you bet $100 and the two favorites won.  That means you would get your $100 investment back with $69.41 in profits.  Our philosophy is to only play parlays with odds of +120 or better, meaning you would receive $220  or more on a $100 wager.

In order to play a parlay with better than +120 odds this week, we would have to pick Hawaii or Miami to win outright.  If we selected Florida to beat Miami and Hawaii to upset Arizona, the parlay odds would be around +500 at this very moment.  That means, we would win $600 on a $100 wager if Florida and Hawaii won.

Alas, we are only confident this week of one outcome, that Florida will indeed beat Miami.  The actual point spread is right where we believe it should be, so playing the line is out of the question.

The best Money Line spread available to us at midday Thursday is -290, which means if we wager $100 on this game, if Florida won, we’d get a tiny $34.48 profit.  The reward is too small for the risk.

The totals for these two games do not give us a chance to come up with a playable parlay either, so for Week 0, we are not issuing any official picks.  We prefer to pick our spots and play only games that we are confident in occasionally winning.  If we play Money Line parlays with odds of +120 or better, we can win a smaller percentage of games and still turn a profit.

Let’s say we play 50 games this year with an average parlay odd of +180  Let’s say we get lucky and win 20.  Here’s how that would affect our imaginary bank account.

50 wagers of $100 each = $5,000 investment

20 Wins at +180 = $3,600 in winnings

30 Losses at +180 = $3,000 in losses

$600 profit at the end of the 50 wagers

12% Return on Investment

This 12% would take place in roughly 4 months, so the annualized Return on Investment would be 36%.  Not many investments return 36% in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub: how likely is it that we can win 40% of our Money Line wagers at +180 odds?  The answer at the present time is one year in four, or to re-phrase it, four years ago.  The only solace is that the most recent three years brought imaginary profits as well, just nothing close to an annualized return of 36%.  Our 2018 season profit was so small it is not worth mentioning.  It was better in 2017 and much better in 2016, so the four year trend has been going in the wrong direction.

Ah, but here’s the other rub: We invested imaginary funds in all the years we have issued our selections.  Being 100% accurate and being 0% accurate brings the same outcome on zero real dollars invested.

Last year, we welcomed five of our long time friends to participate in a contest selecting winners against the spread.  It was a close contest all year, and as a group the five turned a small profit.  This year, we are going to have a guest computer program try to pick winners.  We decided to call this program “Davey 19.”  Davey is named for a former quarterback at TCU and for a short time with the Philadelphia Eagles.  Davey was only 5 foot 7 inches tall, but he had the heart of a giant and the fundamentals of a robot, so that’s why we are calling our guest computer program Davey 19 this year.

We will give Davey an identical rule–to make investments in imaginary $100 wagers.  Davey can make any type of selection in college and the NFL.  Davey does have one selection this week.

 

PiRate Picks For August 24, 2019

None   (not enough games for a playable parlay)

 

Davey 19 Selection For August 24, 2019

Hawaii +11 vs. Arizona

 

We do feel like Florida has a better than 60% chance to beat Miami, but the Money Line odd is too low to make enough profit to limit risk.

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August 2, 2019

PiRate Ratings Ready To Go Live

Ahoy Mates!  The PiRates have returned from sea this summer and are ready to hoist the football flag on terra firma for 2019-2020.

It took us a bit longer this year with added data hopefully allowing us to refine our preseason ratings’ process.  After more than 100 days of work, we finally have preseason ratings for the 130 FBS teams.

As we have done every year, we will begin previewing the conferences daily from the lowest rated to the highest rated.  Here is the schedule for each of the previews.

Day Date Conference Preview
Friday Aug 9 Conference USA
Saturday Aug 10 Mid-American
Sunday Aug 11 Sun Belt
Monday Aug 12 Mountain West
Tuesday Aug 13 Independents
Wednesday Aug 14 American Athletic
Thursday Aug 15 Atlantic Coast
Friday Aug 16 Pac-12
Saturday Aug 17 Big 12
Sunday Aug 18 Big Ten
Monday Aug 19 Southeastern

Then, on Tuesday, August 20, we will debut our spreads for games involving FBS teams up through Labor Day.  There will be two FBS games on Saturday, August 24, and then the first real week of the season takes place over the Labor Day Holiday Weekend from August 29 through September 2.

As always, we are constantly updating our preseason ratings throughout August as news becomes available concerning personnel changes.  If you are a fan of the Connecticut Huskies, your team has undergone some serious roster moves since the end of Spring Practice, and you have seen some key personnel decide to transfer.

There are also a handful of players that might be awarded immediate eligibility after transferring to a new FBS school.  One or two teams could see a jump of more than one ratings’ point if certain players receive immediate eligibility. allow schools to trade players if both schools have an immediate need for the other school’s player, while their current school has no immediate availability?

 

Some Fun Stuff To Ponder

What if the NCAA allowed schools to trade players if both schools have an immediate need for the other school’s player, while their current school has no immediate need for said players?

Can you imagine if a school like Ohio State had a third string quarterback that would not see meaningful minutes, while they needed a flanker to replace a 1st round draft pick, and then a school like Washington State had seven capable receivers and no quarterback?  What if Ohio State and Washington State could make a trade so that the third string QB at Ohio State can now become the starter at Washington State, while the number five receiver at Washington State can now become the starting flanker with the Buckeyes?

It might have been crazy to consider this 10 years ago, but who knows what the future might bring with players now winning appeals for immediate eligibility for some of the most outlandish reasons like having a disagreeable dormitory environment.  If both of our imaginary players wanted to transfer but were not graduates with immediate eligibility, might the NCAA see merit in allowing two players that would rarely see the field to become starters at another school?

Thanks to your comments to us from our other website, something has been circulating this summer among many of you concerning what will happen with the FBS Playoffs when the current contract expires. This topic has wings.  There has been appreciable mumbling coming forth from the movers and shakers in the college football world.

The former big-time New Year’s Day bowls (Sugar, Cotton/Fiesta, Rose, and Orange) have seen historic low ratings in the years they were not part of the Semifinals of the Playoffs.  The key bowls this year will be played on Saturday, December 28, and the Cotton and Orange Bowls will not be played on New Year’s Day.

These once major epic festivals are almost like the football equivalent of the NIT, and the bowl sponsors are not happy.  The Tournament of Roses Committee is really not happy with their historically low TV ratings, and it has not just affected the game, but the ratings for the parade have been off as well.  I am sure they’d gladly take the old arrangement of the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions and distance themselves from the Playoffs altogether, like they did when the Bowl Coalition did not include the Rose Bowl conferences.  An undefeated Rose Bowl champion would easily be able to claim a national title without appearing in the playoffs, just like Notre Dame won numerous national titles long before they appeared in bowl games.  The Associated Press has awarded National Championships for years, and the national champion in multiple years did not appear in a bowl game.

When the next Playoff contract commences in 2026, you can bet that there will be more than four teams in the playoffs.  It could be six, eight, 12, or 16.  The major bowls will demand that their game stays vitally important every year.  With six teams, five bowls would be needed, but there are six heavyweights, so one would be left out each year.

With eight teams, seven bowls would be needed, which would satisfy the needs of the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach every year.  The seventh site could rotate among the other bowls, throwing a one-time bone to the Citrus, Outback, Holiday, Sun, Alamo, and one or two additional bowls.

At 12 or 16 teams, first round games could be played on the home field of the higher-seeded teams before progressing to the bowls.  This would most likely signal the end of conference championship games, but you could see where the big-time schools would gladly give up conference championship games for playoff games.

There is one other topic that has been circulating in college football fan talk this summer, and that is the idea of a Super Football Division consisting of the top 32 programs.  As an example, the top 32 football powers could form their own conference and play only against each other with a super TV contract and NFL-style playoffs based on standings and not the vote of a Committee.  The talk is that these 32 programs could make so much money in football, that they could fund all their other sports and sort of secede from the current NCAA Division 1.  What this would lead to would be the end of Alabama playing Western Carolina in November and Michigan State playing Western Michigan in September.  Instead, there would be weekly games like  Alabama versus Oklahoma, and Ohio State versus Clemson.  All these super schools would play in stadiums with 75,000 to 110,000 seats.  The TV contract would be more like the NFL at its peak.  Imagine a 12-team NFL style playoff with the top superpowers of the gridiron?

This has been rumored for about a quarter century.  Originally, this idea was brushed aside when the major conferences began to expand.  The current belief is that if any conference expands again, they will only do so to bring in teams from outside their current conference media markets.  In other words, The Big Ten would not want Iowa State with Iowa already in the league.  They might want Oklahoma or Oklahoma State but not both, because those rivals come from the same media market.

Likewise, the SEC would not want to add Clemson or Florida State, as they already have South Carolina and Florida.  However, they would gladly take Virginia Tech and one of the Oklahoma schools.

The organic progression would seem to indicate that in the future, one of the Power 5 conferences could fold and its teams would merge into one of the other majors, and there would be four, 16-team super conferences.  However, the media market expansion would not work, because there would be multiple teams from some states, like Texas, and not enough super conferences to join.  Therefore, it is our belief that the only logical solution to this matter is for the top 32 football programs to go at it on their own.  The current Division 1 could be altered from FBS and FCS to 1 A, 1 AA, and 1 AAA.  The 1 AAA would be the top 32 teams.  The 1 AA would be the current remaining 98 FBS plus the top 30 FCS programs that could now compete without the 32 powers.  1 AAA would be all the remaining teams, and then some D2 and NAIA schools might wish to move up.

An NFL Fan Sent This To Us

One of our biggest fans at this site (we didn’t receive permission from him to name him), opined that there could be more than one NFL team trying to position themselves to be 0-16 in 2020.  Much like the Indianapolis Colts tanking to “Suck for Luck,”  the new slogan we have given this is: “Be Clever and Suck for Trevor.”  Trevor Lawrence will be draft eligible in April of 2021.

That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a nice group of available quarterbacks in 2020, as Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Ehlinger, Jake Fromm, Justin Herbert, and others will be available.  However, Lawrence might be the best QB prospect since John Elway, so the stakes will be high in 2021, and it is likely that the team with the worst record in 2020 could be playoff bound by 2022 and Super Bowl worthy by 2023 and for the next 15 years after that.  Teams like Buffalo, Miami, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland/Las Vegas, and Arizona could be in position to sell off one or two key players and be in position to lose big in 2020.  A team like Green Bay or New Orleans could decide to blow up their aging rosters and be terrible for one year, but it would be the right one year.

Looking For The Next Tom Brady

As much as the Colts benefited from drafting Andrew Luck, they have run out of it in January.  Meanwhile, the almost forgotten draft pick  at #199 in 2000, the inimitable Tom Brady, must keep remodeling his home to store all the hardware he has accrued.

Is there a potential second or third day draft quarterback from this year’s crop that could be the diamond in the rough like Touchdown Tom?

We think there is, and ironically, he hails from Brady’s alma mater.  Shea Patterson might be available into the 5th round, because this next class of quarterbacks is full of very good but not superior guys.  The quantity might eventually prove to be greater than the quality, but we see Patterson as flying under the radar.  He has all the tools needed to play at the next level, and we believe his best ability is still to emerge.  Patterson plays in an offense that will not allow him the opportunity to throw the ball 400+ times in 12 games, but what he does with the 350 or so passes should show the right NFL team that he is worth making a late second day or early third day pick on him.

August 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 0

It’s here!  After a long hot, humid Summer that still wears on, the college football season has a dress rehearsal weekend where you are invited to see a couple of FBS games on Saturday, plus a couple more FBS vs. FCS games.

We still have no word from the two coaches in limbo.  As of this writing, neither Urban Meyer nor D.J. Durkin know their fate for the 2018 season and beyond.  Because of these two coaches being in limbo, so are the PiRate Ratings for Week 1.

We are calling this Week 0, and we are keeping the preseason ratings about where they were when we previewed each of the 10 conferences and the independents.  The six FBS teams in action this weekend have had their ratings tweaked minimally due to some injuries and suspensions, but this has amounted to tenths of a point for each team.

Without further adieu, the PiRates are ready to officially debut with the ratings.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

August 25, 2018
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New Mexico St. Wyoming -13.9 -10.8 -13.7
Colorado St. Hawaii 14.7 14.2 17.4
FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Massachusetts Duquesne 17.4
Rice Prairie View 13.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note: We will not offer retrodictive rankings this season–it is too time-consuming to use this algorithm.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 132.0 129.3 133.8 131.7
2 Clemson 131.7 128.4 132.6 130.9
3 Georgia 130.9 126.3 132.4 129.8
4 Washington 128.1 125.0 130.7 127.9
5 Michigan St. 127.7 125.1 128.1 127.0
6 Ohio St. 125.1 122.3 125.6 124.3
7 Notre Dame 125.6 121.5 123.7 123.6
8 Auburn 122.0 121.2 124.4 122.5
9 Wisconsin 123.1 119.2 123.4 121.9
10 Michigan 121.7 120.6 122.7 121.6
11 Mississippi St. 122.5 119.2 122.7 121.5
12 Penn St. 121.2 117.7 121.6 120.2
13 Stanford 120.3 117.5 121.0 119.6
14 Miami 120.3 118.2 120.0 119.5
15 Oklahoma 119.5 117.7 119.8 119.0
16 Boston College 117.3 113.7 117.2 116.1
17 Oregon 114.4 114.5 115.1 114.7
18 Missouri 114.4 112.7 116.0 114.3
19 Northwestern 114.8 112.6 115.4 114.3
20 Virginia Tech 114.3 113.7 114.0 114.0
21 N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.0 113.6 113.5
22 Texas 113.2 111.9 112.8 112.6
23 S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.2 112.3
24 Florida 112.9 110.6 113.3 112.2
25 Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2
26 Duke 113.3 110.4 112.4 112.1
27 T C U 112.7 112.0 111.5 112.0
28 Iowa 113.2 110.0 112.0 111.7
29 Georgia Tech 112.2 110.9 111.8 111.7
30 U S C 112.5 110.7 111.8 111.7
31 Florida St. 111.5 110.9 111.3 111.2
32 Utah 111.0 109.0 111.9 110.7
33 Central Florida 110.8 110.4 110.7 110.6
34 L S U 110.1 110.3 110.7 110.4
35 Texas A&M 110.7 109.6 110.7 110.3
36 Boise St. 110.2 109.3 110.9 110.1
37 Iowa State 110.7 108.8 110.2 109.9
38 California 110.3 107.5 110.1 109.3
39 West Virginia 110.0 108.8 109.1 109.3
40 Arizona 109.9 107.6 110.0 109.1
41 Wake Forest 109.8 107.5 107.3 108.2
42 Arkansas 109.3 106.4 107.6 107.8
43 Purdue 107.9 106.3 106.6 106.9
44 Kansas St. 107.4 106.0 106.8 106.7
45 Fresno St. 107.0 105.4 106.7 106.4
46 Kentucky 106.8 105.3 106.3 106.1
47 Washington St. 107.0 105.8 105.4 106.1
48 Ole Miss 105.3 105.1 106.1 105.5
49 Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.7 105.4
50 Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2
51 Louisville 105.1 105.3 104.6 105.0
52 Syracuse 106.2 104.2 104.6 105.0
53 Texas Tech 106.0 104.0 104.2 104.7
54 N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
55 Arizona St. 105.4 103.3 103.8 104.2
56 Minnesota 104.7 103.6 104.0 104.1
57 Florida Atlantic 102.0 103.0 103.3 102.8
58 Baylor 102.9 100.6 102.3 101.9
59 U C L A 102.5 102.2 100.0 101.5
60 Virginia 101.5 102.0 99.9 101.1
61 Maryland 102.2 100.2 100.5 101.0
62 Houston 99.9 101.4 101.0 100.8
63 Colorado 98.9 100.4 100.1 99.8
64 Navy 98.7 101.7 98.5 99.7
65 San Diego St. 98.7 99.5 99.8 99.3
66 Nebraska 100.5 98.7 97.8 99.0
67 Tennessee 98.8 99.5 98.4 98.9
68 Wyoming 98.5 98.6 98.8 98.6
69 Utah St. 96.8 98.3 98.1 97.7
70 South Florida 96.0 99.3 96.9 97.4
71 Rutgers 98.4 97.0 96.2 97.2
72 Indiana 97.8 96.3 97.3 97.1
73 Toledo 96.3 98.4 96.4 97.0
74 Northern Illinois 96.3 97.9 96.6 96.9
75 Vanderbilt 96.8 97.5 96.2 96.9
76 BYU 95.9 97.0 96.3 96.4
77 Ohio U 95.1 96.5 96.4 96.0
78 Temple 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
79 Army 95.6 96.4 95.5 95.9
80 Marshall 94.3 97.1 95.0 95.5
81 Buffalo 94.3 96.7 95.4 95.5
82 Louisiana Tech 93.8 96.4 95.2 95.1
83 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 SMU 95.1 93.8 94.0 94.3
85 N. Texas 93.0 96.3 93.6 94.3
86 Illinois 94.0 93.5 92.9 93.5
87 Troy 91.8 93.7 93.7 93.1
88 Miami (O) 91.5 93.9 93.4 92.9
89 Western Michigan 91.5 93.8 92.9 92.8
90 Middle Tennessee 91.4 93.4 93.0 92.6
91 Kansas 93.9 92.3 91.6 92.6
92 Nevada 92.4 92.5 92.6 92.5
93 U A B 91.1 93.6 91.5 92.1
94 Tulsa 91.8 90.3 92.3 91.5
95 Air Force 91.7 91.7 90.9 91.4
96 Massachusetts 89.8 92.4 92.0 91.4
97 Akron 90.5 92.1 90.7 91.1
98 U N L V 89.1 90.8 89.6 89.8
99 Eastern Michigan 89.1 90.5 89.8 89.8
100 Old Dominion 87.5 91.3 89.0 89.3
101 Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2
102 Appalachian St. 87.5 89.1 88.7 88.4
103 UL-Monroe 87.3 86.7 88.1 87.4
104 Cincinnati 87.1 88.5 86.5 87.3
105 Oregon St. 88.5 86.0 86.9 87.1
106 Colo. State 85.6 87.1 86.1 86.3
107 New Mexico 85.7 87.6 85.3 86.2
108 Central Michigan 84.8 88.5 85.2 86.2
109 Bowling Green 85.1 85.4 85.7 85.4
110 Florida Int’l. 82.0 86.8 82.6 83.8
111 Connecticut 84.1 84.4 82.8 83.8
112 N. Mexico St. 82.0 85.3 82.5 83.3
113 Southern Miss. 81.6 85.0 82.1 82.9
114 Georgia Southern 82.5 83.7 82.4 82.9
115 South Alabama 81.4 83.8 82.6 82.6
116 U T S A 80.2 85.6 81.6 82.5
117 East Carolina 83.1 82.2 82.0 82.4
118 W. Kentucky 80.4 84.6 81.2 82.1
119 Kent St. 80.2 81.6 79.5 80.4
120 Louisiana 78.9 81.1 79.9 80.0
121 Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9
122 Ball St. 77.7 80.4 77.4 78.5
123 Charlotte 76.2 78.7 76.3 77.1
124 San Jose St. 76.6 77.4 74.8 76.3
125 Liberty 75.2 73.9 74.2 74.5
126 Coastal Carolina 73.2 76.4 73.6 74.4
127 Hawaii 74.4 76.4 72.2 74.3
128 Rice 71.4 74.5 69.7 71.9
129 Texas State 70.4 73.9 69.9 71.4
130 U T E P 69.3 72.5 68.6 70.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 110.8 110.4 110.7 110.6 0-0 0-0
South Florida 96.0 99.3 96.9 97.4 0-0 0-0
Temple 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9 0-0 0-0
Cincinnati 87.1 88.5 86.5 87.3 0-0 0-0
Connecticut 84.1 84.4 82.8 83.8 0-0 0-0
East Carolina 83.1 82.2 82.0 82.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.7 105.4 0-0 0-0
Houston 99.9 101.4 101.0 100.8 0-0 0-0
Navy 98.7 101.7 98.5 99.7 0-0 0-0
Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.0 94.3 0-0 0-0
SMU 95.1 93.8 94.0 94.3 0-0 0-0
Tulsa 91.8 90.3 92.3 91.5 0-0 0-0
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 131.7 128.4 132.6 130.9 0-0 0-0
Boston College 117.3 113.7 117.2 116.1 0-0 0-0
N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.0 113.6 113.5 0-0 0-0
Florida St. 111.5 110.9 111.3 111.2 0-0 0-0
Wake Forest 109.8 107.5 107.3 108.2 0-0 0-0
Louisville 105.1 105.3 104.6 105.0 0-0 0-0
Syracuse 106.2 104.2 104.6 105.0 0-0 0-0
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 120.3 118.2 120.0 119.5 0-0 0-0
Virginia Tech 114.3 113.7 114.0 114.0 0-0 0-0
Duke 113.3 110.4 112.4 112.1 0-0 0-0
Georgia Tech 112.2 110.9 111.8 111.7 0-0 0-0
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2 0-0 0-0
N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 0-0 0-0
Virginia 101.5 102.0 99.9 101.1 0-0 0-0
ACC Averages 112.0 110.6 111.3 111.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.5 117.7 119.8 119.0 0-0 0-0
Texas 113.2 111.9 112.8 112.6 0-0 0-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2 0-0 0-0
T C U 112.7 112.0 111.5 112.0 0-0 0-0
Iowa State 110.7 108.8 110.2 109.9 0-0 0-0
West Virginia 110.0 108.8 109.1 109.3 0-0 0-0
Kansas St. 107.4 106.0 106.8 106.7 0-0 0-0
Texas Tech 106.0 104.0 104.2 104.7 0-0 0-0
Baylor 102.9 100.6 102.3 101.9 0-0 0-0
Kansas 93.9 92.3 91.6 92.6 0-0 0-0
Big 12 Averages 108.9 107.3 108.1 108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan St. 127.7 125.1 128.1 127.0 0-0 0-0
Ohio St. 125.1 122.3 125.6 124.3 0-0 0-0
Michigan 121.7 120.6 122.7 121.6 0-0 0-0
Penn St. 121.2 117.7 121.6 120.2 0-0 0-0
Maryland 102.2 100.2 100.5 101.0 0-0 0-0
Rutgers 98.4 97.0 96.2 97.2 0-0 0-0
Indiana 97.8 96.3 97.3 97.1 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 123.1 119.2 123.4 121.9 0-0 0-0
Northwestern 114.8 112.6 115.4 114.3 0-0 0-0
Iowa 113.2 110.0 112.0 111.7 0-0 0-0
Purdue 107.9 106.3 106.6 106.9 0-0 0-0
Minnesota 104.7 103.6 104.0 104.1 0-0 0-0
Nebraska 100.5 98.7 97.8 99.0 0-0 0-0
Illinois 94.0 93.5 92.9 93.5 0-0 0-0
Big Ten Averages 110.9 108.8 110.3 110.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 102.0 103.0 103.3 102.8 0-0 0-0
Marshall 94.3 97.1 95.0 95.5 0-0 0-0
Middle Tennessee 91.4 93.4 93.0 92.6 0-0 0-0
Old Dominion 87.5 91.3 89.0 89.3 0-0 0-0
Florida Int’l. 82.0 86.8 82.6 83.8 0-0 0-0
W. Kentucky 80.4 84.6 81.2 82.1 0-0 0-0
Charlotte 76.2 78.7 76.3 77.1 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Louisiana Tech 93.8 96.4 95.2 95.1 0-0 0-0
N. Texas 93.0 96.3 93.6 94.3 0-0 0-0
U A B 91.1 93.6 91.5 92.1 0-0 0-0
Southern Miss. 81.6 85.0 82.1 82.9 0-0 0-0
U T S A 80.2 85.6 81.6 82.5 0-0 0-0
Rice 71.4 74.5 69.7 71.9 0-0 0-0
U T E P 69.3 72.5 68.6 70.1 0-0 0-0
CUSA Averages 85.3 88.5 85.9 86.6
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Overall
Notre Dame 125.6 121.5 123.7 123.6 0-0
BYU 95.9 97.0 96.3 96.4 0-0
Army 95.6 96.4 95.5 95.9 0-0
Massachusetts 89.8 92.4 92.0 91.4 0-0
N. Mexico St. 82.0 85.3 82.5 83.3 0-0
Liberty 75.2 73.9 74.2 74.5 0-0
Indep. Averages 94.0 94.4 94.0 94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 95.1 96.5 96.4 96.0 0-0 0-0
Buffalo 94.3 96.7 95.4 95.5 0-0 0-0
Miami (O) 91.5 93.9 93.4 92.9 0-0 0-0
Akron 90.5 92.1 90.7 91.1 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 85.1 85.4 85.7 85.4 0-0 0-0
Kent St. 80.2 81.6 79.5 80.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.3 98.4 96.4 97.0 0-0 0-0
Northern Illinois 96.3 97.9 96.6 96.9 0-0 0-0
Western Michigan 91.5 93.8 92.9 92.8 0-0 0-0
Eastern Michigan 89.1 90.5 89.8 89.8 0-0 0-0
Central Michigan 84.8 88.5 85.2 86.2 0-0 0-0
Ball St. 77.7 80.4 77.4 78.5 0-0 0-0
MAC Averages 89.4 91.3 90.0 90.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 110.2 109.3 110.9 110.1 0-0 0-0
Wyoming 98.5 98.6 98.8 98.6 0-0 0-0
Utah St. 96.8 98.3 98.1 97.7 0-0 0-0
Air Force 91.7 91.7 90.9 91.4 0-0 0-0
Colo. State 85.6 87.1 86.1 86.3 0-0 0-0
New Mexico 85.7 87.6 85.3 86.2 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 107.0 105.4 106.7 106.4 0-0 0-0
San Diego St. 98.7 99.5 99.8 99.3 0-0 0-0
Nevada 92.4 92.5 92.6 92.5 0-0 0-0
U N L V 89.1 90.8 89.6 89.8 0-0 0-0
San Jose St. 76.6 77.4 74.8 76.3 0-0 0-0
Hawaii 74.4 76.4 72.2 74.3 0-0 0-0
MWC Averages 92.2 92.9 92.2 92.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 128.1 125.0 130.7 127.9 0-0 0-0
Stanford 120.3 117.5 121.0 119.6 0-0 0-0
Oregon 114.4 114.5 115.1 114.7 0-0 0-0
California 110.3 107.5 110.1 109.3 0-0 0-0
Washington St. 107.0 105.8 105.4 106.1 0-0 0-0
Oregon St. 88.5 86.0 86.9 87.1 0-0 0-0
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.5 110.7 111.8 111.7 0-0 0-0
Utah 111.0 109.0 111.9 110.7 0-0 0-0
Arizona 109.9 107.6 110.0 109.1 0-0 0-0
Arizona St. 105.4 103.3 103.8 104.2 0-0 0-0
U C L A 102.5 102.2 100.0 101.5 0-0 0-0
Colorado 98.9 100.4 100.1 99.8 0-0 0-0
Pac-12 Averages 109.1 107.4 108.9 108.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 130.9 126.3 132.4 129.8 0-0 0-0
Missouri 114.4 112.7 116.0 114.3 0-0 0-0
S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.2 112.3 0-0 0-0
Florida 112.9 110.6 113.3 112.2 0-0 0-0
Kentucky 106.8 105.3 106.3 106.1 0-0 0-0
Tennessee 98.8 99.5 98.4 98.9 0-0 0-0
Vanderbilt 96.8 97.5 96.2 96.9 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 132.0 129.3 133.8 131.7 0-0 0-0
Auburn 122.0 121.2 124.4 122.5 0-0 0-0
Mississippi St. 122.5 119.2 122.7 121.5 0-0 0-0
L S U 110.1 110.3 110.7 110.4 0-0 0-0
Texas A&M 110.7 109.6 110.7 110.3 0-0 0-0
Arkansas 109.3 106.4 107.6 107.8 0-0 0-0
Ole Miss 105.3 105.1 106.1 105.5 0-0 0-0
SEC Averages 113.2 111.8 113.6 112.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Troy 91.8 93.7 93.7 93.1 0-0 0-0
Appalachian St. 87.5 89.1 88.7 88.4 0-0 0-0
Georgia Southern 82.5 83.7 82.4 82.9 0-0 0-0
Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9 0-0 0-0
Coastal Carolina 73.2 76.4 73.6 74.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2 0-0 0-0
UL-Monroe 87.3 86.7 88.1 87.4 0-0 0-0
South Alabama 81.4 83.8 82.6 82.6 0-0 0-0
Louisiana 78.9 81.1 79.9 80.0 0-0 0-0
Texas State 70.4 73.9 69.9 71.4 0-0 0-0
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 83.9 82.7 82.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.2 111.8 113.6 112.9
2 ACC 112.0 110.6 111.3 111.3
3 BTEN 110.9 108.8 110.3 110.0
4 P-12 109.1 107.4 108.9 108.5
5 B12 108.9 107.3 108.1 108.1
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
7 IND 94.0 94.4 94.0 94.2
8 MWC 92.2 92.9 92.2 92.4
9 MAC 89.4 91.3 90.0 90.2
10 CUSA 85.3 88.5 85.9 86.6
11 SBC 81.9 83.9 82.7 82.8

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Nevada Southern Miss.
Cure CUSA SBC Navy Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Toledo Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Tulane Western Michigan
Gasparilla AAC CUSA USF North Texas
Bahamas AAC CUSA UCF Florida Atlantic
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Northern Illinois Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Army]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [UCLA]
Doll. General MAC SBC Ohio Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Wyoming
Ht. of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Washington St.
Independence ACC SEC Duke LSU
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Georgia Tech Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/B10 SEC Virginia Tech Tennessee
Camp. World ACC Big 12 Boston College West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. USC
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Miami (Fl) Texas
Military AAC ACC Temple Wake Forest
Sun ACC Pac-12 Florida St. California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. Texas A&M
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Utah
Gator ACC/B10 SEC Northwestern Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Missouri
Fiesta At-large At-large Ohio St. Boise St.
Citrus ACC/B10 SEC Wisconsin Auburn
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. Stanford
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS FBS Alabama Washington
Orange FBS FBS Clemson Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Orange Cotton Clemson Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

This Week’s Selections–This will normally run on Thursdays and include both NCAA and NFL selections.  Since there are only 2 possible games this week, we will not make any selections.  We will not limit ourselves to just Money Line Parlays this season.  We will go with whatever we feel least indecisive about publicly listing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings Ready To Rock and Roll for 2018

Hello Mates

After hours and hours of intensive study, the PiRate Ratings are ready to debut for the 2018 college and professional football season.  We have made some major tweaks to our ratings’ algorithms as more and more analytical data has become available, some of which has contradicted some of our prior beliefs.

The main change we have made this year is how we rate new starters that replaced graduating starters in the NCAA ranks and changes in personnel at the NFL level.  We had been giving too much weight to certain positions and not enough weight at others.  This is why we spent an extra 40-50 hours this season refining our personnel ratings for each starting position of all 130 FBS teams and the 32 NFL teams.

We will begin previewing the NCAA football conferences Friday, August 9, beginning with the lowest overall rated conference and adding a new conference each day, until we culminate with the highest rated league on Sunday, August 19.

We will then debut our point spreads for the first week of college games on Tuesday, August 21, as there are a handful of games on Saturday, August 25.  Then, on August 28, we will have our first full preview for the real first week of the college football season.

Our NFL ratings will debut after the final cuts have been made following the final preseason games, most likely on Monday, September 3.  We will not offer an NFL preview this year.  We have noticed that since the Colin Kaepernick affair began, that the numbers of you reading our NFL-themed presentations have declined by 50% or more, while the number of patrons reading the college ratings and forecasts have increased by almost 50%.  This is about the same as with TV ratings, as the NFL Hall of Fame Game experienced its lowest ratings in over 20 years, and season ticket sales are off at almost every stadium.

For those wondering about out money line and/or teaser selections, we are leaning toward going only with straight wagers this season.  Our 4-year winning streak with the money line picks ended last year, when we could only win 51% of the time, which counts as a loss against the vigorish.  The one thing in our favor, is that we our wagers are always imaginary.  We neither win nor lose no matter the outcome of the games.

We do know there are a number of you that follow this site because you have statistical data that gives you a decided edge in your professional wagering.  Please be advised that our algorithms have experienced major alterations this year, and our ratings are not going to be the same as prior years.

Additionally, we have ended our retrodictive ratings, which required us to keep two separate databases.  These were excellent ways to rank the teams in order, but we know most of you are looking for predictive ratings and not rankings.

Here’s to an exciting season!

November 15, 2017

Making College Football Even Better

This is our annual and somewhat repetitive treatise dealing with how to improve the college football game as it pertains to the current status.

College football is thriving since the advent of the 4-team playoff.  Unfortunately, those in charge made a little mistake in previous years when they scheduled semifinal bowls for the PM hours of New Year’s Eve.  Numerous fans across the nation chose (in some cases it was chosen for them by a significant other), to attend other festivities.  The semifinal games belong on New Year’s Day, which is the slot Americans have associated with bowl games for decades.  The ultimate college football experience starts with celebrating the birth of the new year while camping out on Orange Grove Boulevard in Pasadena with hundreds if not thousands of potentially new friends; then watching the most magnificent two hours of the Tournament of Roses Parade, contemplating how much work has gone into the planning of this event (it actually begins on January 2nd every year), and then realizing that the bands will march and play their instruments for 5 1/2 miles.

One of the neat things to do if you have been to multiple Rose Parades is to stake out a spot on Paloma at the end of the route and then to be the first to view the floats as they go on display near Victory Park.

The culmination of a fantastic event should be the Rose Bowl Game, which should not be played on any other date but New Year’s Day at 3PM PST (Jan. 2 if the first is on a Sunday).

That being said, there are a few other changes that we believe will take a great game and shoot it into orbit.

ISSUE 1–The Playoffs (8 is not enough)

The Playoffs need more teams, so that all Power 5 Conference champions get an automatic bid.  How would you feel if the Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North and then did not have the opportunity to appear in the NFL Playoffs?  Or what if the Houston Astros would have been cut out of the Major League playoffs because Cleveland had a better resume this year?

Here’s how the PiRates see it at the present time.  We are unanimously in favor of giving all five Power Conference champions an automatic invitation to the gridiron dance, while at the same time, we believe the top four teams should receive a reward.  One method could be that the top four would host the next four in an 8-team tournament, but to us that is not enough reward for the top four teams.  Also, there are going to be years were the number 9 team is as good as the number 4 team, and instead of arguing that number 4 should not have been selected, as number 9 was just as deserving, why not extend it out by a half round?  12 is the perfect number of playoff teams.  Most importantly, a 12-team tournament gives the top four teams a bye to the quarterfinals, and they can still host a quarterfinal round game on their home turf.  That is the proper reward for finishing in the top four.

Additionally, a 12-team tournament gives the Group of 5 conferences a chance.  Guarantee that one of the 12 spots goes to the top Group of 5, just like it receives a New Year’s 6 Bowl bid now.  If Central Florida runs the table this year, rather than receive the last slot in the NY6, at least they could be the #12 seed in a 12-team playoff.  If they really are deserving, then they can prove it by taking out the #5 seed in a road contest.

With 5 Power Conference teams and one Group of 5 Conference team receiving automating bids, it leaves six at-large bids.  In our opinion, these six at-large teams should cover the bases for finding teams worthy of playing for all the marbles.  You are talking about teams ranked around #10 overall at this point.  The #10 vs. #11 team is much less important than the #5 and #4 team competing for a spot.

If we were to look at this season, playing out the remaining games for our purposes in this editorial, the playoffs might look something like this:

ACC Champion–Miami

Big 12 Champion–Oklahoma

Big Ten Champion–Wisconsin

Pac-12 Champion–USC

SEC Champion–Alabama

Best Group of 5–Central Florida

At large 1–Georgia

At large 2–Clemson

At large 3–Ohio St.

At large 4–TCU

At large 5–Penn St.

At large 6–Notre Dame

Top teams left out–Washington, Auburn, Michigan St., Boise St., Memphis, Oklahoma St., and LSU

At the present time, Wisconsin would be left out of the Playoff, even though the Badgers are undefeated.  This would be a travesty if a 13-0 UW team failed to make the playoffs while a 2-loss team sneaked in ahead of the Badgers.  Under our format, none of the teams left out would have any legitimate reason to state a case that they deserved to be in, because in actuality the last two seeds probably should not be in the tournament at all.  However, this actually serves a useful purpose.  If seeds 10, 11, and 12 are not all that worthy of being in the playoffs, then their first round hosts (seeds 5, 6, and 7) get a little benefit that seed 8 does not receive.

Seeding the 12 teams above, you would get something like this:

Opening Round

#12 Central Florida at #5 Georgia

#11 Notre Dame at #6 Clemson

#10 USC at #7 Ohio St.

#9 Penn St. at #8 TCU

Quarterfinal Round

UCF-Ga. Winner at #4 Wisconsin

N. Dame-Clemson Winner at #3 Oklahoma

USC-Ohio St. Winner at #2 Miami

Penn St.-TCU Winner at #1 Alabama

From here the playoffs would be back to where they are now–two bowl games for the Semifinals, followed by the National Championship Game.

 

ISSUE 2–The Games are Toooooooo Lonnnnnng

The NFL realized a few years back that their once 2 1/2 hour games had jumped by an hour, because players believed in going out of bounds rather than absorb contact by a quickly moving 300-pound wall of steel.  They began starting the clock after the ball was brought back in bounds by the side judge or line judge.  Thus, the number of scrimmage plays returned to about where it had been for decades, in the 120-130 per game neighborhood.

College football used to see anywhere from 110 to 150 scrimmage plays per game.  Today, one team might run 100 plays, while the other gets 75, and the game becomes the football version of War and Peace.  The game needs to get to a point where 120-150 plays is the average range.  There is one definite way to make the clock move more than it does today–end the stoppage of the clock on first downs.  The NFL does just fine without the clock stopping on first downs.  The sideline official simply places his lead foot on the spot where the scrimmage stick needs to go, and he keeps it there until the man holding the stick arrives, which is almost always before the ball is snapped for the next play.

If you keep the clock moving after a play results in a first down during a typical college football game today, you are not stopping the clock about 45 times per game.  On games where there are fewer first downs, the clock will keep running any way, so this will basically just keep your 1,000 total yard games under 4 hours, while doing little to the 500 total yard games.

ISSUE 3–We Want Real Overtime

The current mode of college overtime can take a hard fought, defensive gem 13-13 tie at the end of regulation and turn it into a 43-41 4OT game that looks like nobody played a lick of defense.

College overtime should start with one team kicking off to the other, and with a touchdown needed on the first drive in order to end the game without the kicking team getting the ball, just like in the NFL.  Play 10 or 15 minutes, and if the teams are still tied, then let it be a tie game.  Tie games can be just as important as wins and losses.  In today’s world of computer technology, a tie game will not throw a monkey wrench into the works.  Here’s a little secret for you: When the PiRates adjust our ratings after every college football game, we adjust all overtime games back to the tie score at the end of regulation and throw out what happens in overtime, with the exception of factoring in the possibilities of key players being injured and if it could deflate the loser in the future.  What goes on in the current overtime does not tell us anything important.  We need to know how teams perform on both sides of the ball on a 100-yard field and not a 25-yard field.  In actuality, it makes the game a different sport entirely.  How would you like a college basketball overtime only played in the half-court with each team getting a possession per overtime?  That is not real basketball either.

ISSUE 4: A Wet Turf Should Never Be Credited With a Tackle

How many times have you seen a player make a brilliant move to get open in the clear only to slip on wet turf or dive to make a play and then cannot advance the ball, even though no defender has participated in the play?  The NFL totally gets this issue.  A player should not be considered tackle, unless a defender is responsible for downing him or has made contact with him while he is on the ground.  Watching a receiver embarrass a defender, make a brilliant highlight-film catch, and then have to settle for a 6-yard gain, when he could get up and run for 25 yards robs not only the player and his team, but also the fans who want to see action.  When that player dives for the ball and makes the catch today, the turf gets the tackle.  Only vegetation can be happy about that.

ISSUE 5: Pass Interference Should Never Be Allowed to Become a Defensive Strategy

In the early 1980’s, the college football world changed defensive pass interference penalties to a maximum of 15 yards and an automatic first down.  In today’s game, there are times when it is beneficial to clobber a receiver and give up the 15 yards and first down rather than give up the 30-yard pass completion or the touchdown catch.  With less than a minute to go in the game when one team needs only a touchdown to win, but they must go 80 yards, every time the offensive team throws at an attempt to gain more than 35 yards, it is wise to merely clobber the receiver if there is any chance the ball will be caught.  You give up 15 yards and a first down, but now the receiver is hearing footsteps.  The next pass may find him not really extending his arms out to try to catch the pass, knowing that the defender can perform as much unnecessary roughness on him and only suffer the interference penalty.

The right thing to do is to restore pass interference penalties back to awarding the offense a first down at the spot of the foul, just like it has remained in the NFL.  Now, if a team interferes on a Hail Mary pass in the end zone, the offense gets the ball at the opponent’s one yard line, and gets another play, even if the clock shows 0:00.  Pass interference should never be allowed to become a strategy.  It is the equivalent of a flagrant foul in basketball on a breakaway drive to the hoop.

 

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Iowa
Minnesota Illinois
#2 @ +169  
Must Win Must Lose
Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette
Notre Dame USC
LSU Ole Miss
#3 @ +127  
Must Win Must Lose
Houston Memphis
Penn St. Michigan
#4 @ +132  
Must Win Must Lose
UAB Charlotte
Purdue Rutgers
Duke Pittsburgh

Good luck.  You’ll need it if you play our parlays.  Shame on you if you wager the paper that they say is real money on these selections.  If you want to gift away $400, you can send it to my Patreon page.

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

October 2, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 4-7, 2017

PiRate Rating Spreads For This Week

October 4-7        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -6.5 -6.9 -8.7
North Carolina St. Louisville 2.5 3.0 2.3
Connecticut Memphis -13.7 -9.8 -13.8
BYU Boise St. -0.5 0.7 0.0
East Carolina Temple -7.2 -6.0 -7.2
Oklahoma Iowa St. 26.2 23.2 26.3
Clemson Wake Forest 27.0 25.1 26.8
Toledo Eastern Michigan 6.7 6.8 8.0
Kansas Texas Tech -14.6 -10.7 -14.5
Iowa Illinois 22.9 21.6 23.8
Vanderbilt Georgia -14.5 -16.4 -15.8
Auburn Ole Miss 27.0 26.3 29.0
Northwestern Penn St. -14.2 -14.0 -14.9
Virginia Duke -2.3 -1.1 0.5
Syracuse Pittsburgh 5.9 4.0 5.9
Ohio U Central Michigan 4.8 5.5 5.7
Miami (O) Bowling Green 15.8 16.8 16.7
Texas St. Louisiana-Monroe -7.5 -5.5 -7.4
Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l. 10.6 11.2 10.3
Appalachian St. New Mexico St. 13.3 12.9 13.4
Purdue Minnesota -3.1 -1.7 -2.2
North Carolina Notre Dame -5.9 -5.9 -8.6
Northern Illinois Kent St. 13.6 11.9 13.5
Navy Air Force 12.4 12.6 12.4
Florida LSU 7.3 7.5 6.3
Buffalo Western Michigan -15.1 -11.0 -14.5
TCU West Virginia 13.0 9.7 13.4
Akron Ball St. 10.7 11.8 9.3
Florida St. Miami (Fla.) 4.6 5.3 4.2
Oregon Washington St. -1.9 -2.6 -2.3
Tulane Tulsa -1.5 -1.0 -0.9
Ohio St. Maryland 31.8 27.1 31.0
USC Oregon St. 29.9 29.5 31.1
UAB Louisiana Tech -22.5 -19.2 -21.4
South Carolina Arkansas 1.7 1.6 1.0
Utah St. Colorado St. -11.6 -11.3 -12.4
Idaho Louisiana-Lafayette 3.0 3.8 4.1
Old Dominion Florida Atlantic 4.3 3.6 3.4
Charlotte Marshall -13.5 -12.6 -14.7
Coastal Carolina Georgia St. -11.6 -9.7 -10.1
Rice Army -14.8 -13.8 -15.3
UTSA Southern Miss. 13.4 13.6 15.6
Texas Kansas St. 2.6 3.6 2.9
Houston SMU 8.0 7.3 7.3
Texas A&M Alabama -32.6 -29.8 -32.7
Boston College Virginia Tech -17.0 -16.0 -18.0
Kentucky Missouri 17.8 19.0 18.6
San Jose St. Fresno St. -10.2 -8.8 -11.4
Michigan Michigan St. 18.4 15.4 17.0
UTEP Western Kentucky -19.4 -15.3 -20.3
Nebraska Wisconsin -17.4 -12.1 -16.4
Cincinnati Central Florida -20.6 -19.9 -20.3
Colorado Arizona 14.7 13.4 13.9
Utah Stanford -7.5 -4.3 -6.5
Nevada Hawaii -0.8 0.9 0.8
Washington California 31.7 31.0 34.1
UNLV San Diego St. -11 -8.4 -11.3
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
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This Week’s PiRate Retrodictive Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings are like rankings, rating teams based on what they have done so far this season without trying to predict the outcome of future games

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.4
2 Clemson 130.8
3 Washington 129.6
4 Oklahoma 129.2
5 Penn St. 127.7
6 Georgia 127.5
7 Michigan 123.8
8 Ohio St. 123.6
9 Wisconsin 123.5
10 Miami (Fla) 123.0
11 TCU 122.9
12 Washington St. 122.2
13 USC 120.7
14 Louisville 120.4
15 San Diego St. 117.9
16 Florida 117.6
17 Virginia Tech 116.5
18 Oklahoma St. 116.1
19 Central Florida 115.8
20 South Florida 115.6
21 Auburn 115.5
22 Notre Dame 115.5
23 Utah 115.2
24 Stanford 115.1
25 North Carolina St. 115.0
26 Texas Tech 114.9
27 Navy 114.9
28 Wake Forest 114.8
29 Mississippi St. 114.7
30 Kansas St. 114.7
31 Minnesota 114.2
32 Oregon 114.0
33 Duke 113.9
34 Iowa 113.5
35 Kentucky 113.4
36 Georgia Tech 113.2
37 Maryland 112.9
38 Florida St. 112.5
39 Houston 112.0
40 Texas A&M 111.8
41 West Virginia 111.4
42 Michigan St. 111.1
43 LSU 110.6
44 Colorado 110.2
45 Tennessee 109.7
46 Toledo 109.3
47 Vanderbilt 108.5
48 South Carolina 108.2
49 Texas 107.7
50 California 107.6
51 Memphis 107.2
52 UCLA 106.9
53 Western Michigan 106.6
54 Nebraska 106.0
55 Boise St. 105.6
56 Northwestern 105.0
57 Indiana 104.7
58 Purdue 104.4
59 Arizona St. 103.9
60 Colorado St. 103.7
61 Virginia 103.4
62 Troy 102.9
63 UTSA 102.0
64 SMU 101.8
65 Arkansas 101.7
66 Appalachian St. 101.5
67 Ole Miss 100.9
68 Northern Illinois 100.7
69 Marshall 100.0
70 Pittsburgh 99.6
71 Ohio 98.9
72 Louisiana Tech 98.4
73 Tulane 98.2
74 Boston College 98.0
75 Arizona 97.8
76 Iowa St. 97.0
77 Utah St. 96.6
78 Air Force 96.2
79 Army 95.9
80 Wyoming 95.3
81 North Carolina 94.5
82 Western Kentucky 94.1
83 Arkansas St. 93.7
84 Southern Miss. 93.3
85 Temple 92.9
86 New Mexico 92.8
87 Fresno St. 92.2
88 Syracuse 91.5
89 North Texas 91.1
90 Tulsa 90.6
91 Florida Int’l. 90.4
92 Eastern Michigan 89.9
93 Buffalo 89.4
94 Illinois 89.3
95 Cincinnati 88.7
96 Miami (O) 88.1
97 Florida Atlantic 88.0
98 Idaho 87.2
99 BYU 86.9
100 Middle Tennessee 86.5
101 Old Dominion 86.1
102 Baylor 85.8
103 New Mexico St. 85.0
104 UNLV 84.9
105 Akron 84.7
106 Missouri 84.7
107 Oregon St. 84.1
108 UL-Monroe 83.6
109 Rutgers 82.9
110 Hawaii 82.5
111 Central Michigan 82.2
112 UL-Lafayette 82.0
113 Ball St. 81.8
114 East Carolina 81.3
115 South Alabama 80.8
116 Connecticut 79.6
117 UAB 79.1
118 Georgia St. 78.3
119 Coastal Carolina 77.9
120 Georgia Southern 77.8
121 Kansas 77.8
122 Kent St. 75.1
123 Rice 75.0
124 Nevada 74.4
125 Massachusetts 73.8
126 Bowling Green 73.3
127 San Jose St. 73.2
128 UTEP 73.1
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 72.2

PiRate Predictive Ratings

Predictive Ratings only look forward to the next week’s games played.  They do not rate teams based on what they have done so far, and in many cases, a higher-rated team may have lost to a lower-rated team (like Ohio State being rated higher than Oklahoma).

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.1 136.3 140.1 139.2
2 Ohio St. 132.6 129.9 132.1 131.5
3 Clemson 130.7 127.8 130.3 129.6
4 Washington 130.0 126.9 130.7 129.2
5 Penn St. 127.7 125.7 128.5 127.3
6 Auburn 126.8 124.6 126.9 126.1
7 Oklahoma 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
8 Georgia 123.6 124.3 123.9 123.9
9 Florida St. 124.1 122.6 123.1 123.3
10 Oklahoma St. 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
11 Miami 121.5 119.3 121.0 120.6
12 Wisconsin 122.4 118.4 120.7 120.5
13 U S C 119.5 118.8 119.3 119.2
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.2 119.4 118.8
15 T C U 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
16 Washington St. 118.3 116.1 117.8 117.4
17 Stanford 117.5 116.1 116.7 116.8
18 Michigan 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
19 Louisville 116.3 115.2 116.4 116.0
20 N. Carolina St. 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
21 Notre Dame 115.7 114.5 116.5 115.5
22 Florida 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.5
23 Georgia Tech 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
24 Texas 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
25 Kansas St. 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
26 Oregon 113.4 110.5 112.6 112.2
27 South Florida 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
28 Central Florida 110.7 112.3 111.8 111.6
29 L S U 111.8 110.3 112.2 111.4
30 Kentucky 111.4 110.2 110.9 110.8
31 Colorado 111.5 109.5 109.4 110.1
32 Northwestern 110.6 108.6 110.6 109.9
33 West Virginia 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
34 Iowa 109.6 109.8 109.3 109.6
35 U C L A 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
36 Utah 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
37 Mississippi St. 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
38 Duke 108.4 107.0 107.0 107.5
39 Minnesota 107.3 107.5 106.9 107.2
40 Syracuse 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
41 Colo. State 107.2 105.8 107.5 106.8
42 Wake Forest 106.8 105.7 106.5 106.3
43 Vanderbilt 106.6 105.4 105.6 105.9
44 Arkansas 106.2 105.6 105.7 105.9
45 N. Carolina 106.8 105.6 104.9 105.8
46 Indiana 104.6 104.7 105.0 104.8
47 Pittsburgh 104.9 105.2 104.2 104.8
48 Maryland 103.9 105.8 104.1 104.6
49 Texas A&M 105.5 103.5 104.4 104.5
50 S. Carolina 104.9 104.2 103.7 104.3
51 Houston 104.5 103.8 104.4 104.2
52 Texas Tech 104.5 103.9 103.7 104.0
53 Tennessee 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
54 Virginia 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
55 Iowa State 102.6 103.8 103.3 103.3
56 Western Michigan 102.7 101.0 104.2 102.6
57 Nebraska 102.0 103.4 101.3 102.2
58 San Diego St. 101.9 102.0 102.8 102.2
59 Purdue 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
60 Baylor 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
61 Arizona St. 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
62 Ole Miss 102.8 101.3 100.9 101.7
63 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.5 101.6
64 Memphis 101.7 100.8 101.8 101.4
65 Michigan St. 100.0 102.5 100.7 101.1
66 Toledo 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
67 California 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
68 Boston College 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3
69 SMU 99.0 99.1 99.6 99.2
70 Arizona 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
71 Tulsa 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.7
72 Boise St. 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
73 Appalachian St. 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
74 U T S A 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
75 Troy 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Army 95.5 95.6 96.2 95.8
77 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
78 Eastern Michigan 95.5 95.1 95.5 95.4
79 BYU 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3
80 New Mexico 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
81 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
82 Wyoming 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
83 Miami (O) 92.7 94.7 94.2 93.9
84 W. Kentucky 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
85 Rutgers 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
86 Temple 92.7 93.1 92.6 92.8
87 Air Force 91.9 92.5 92.1 92.2
88 Louisiana Tech 91.4 92.5 92.4 92.1
89 Utah St. 92.6 91.5 92.1 92.1
90 Oregon St. 92.6 92.4 91.1 92.0
91 Ohio U 91.1 92.5 92.1 91.9
92 Northern Illinois 90.2 90.0 90.7 90.3
93 Illinois 89.7 91.2 88.5 89.8
94 Marshall 88.7 90.0 90.3 89.7
95 U N L V 88.7 91.1 89.0 89.6
96 Fresno St. 89.8 88.5 90.3 89.6
97 Old Dominion 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
98 Middle Tennessee 89.0 89.8 89.4 89.4
99 Arkansas St. 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
100 Central Michigan 88.7 89.5 88.9 89.0
101 Cincinnati 87.6 89.9 89.1 88.9
102 Kansas 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
103 Florida Atlantic 86.9 89.9 88.1 88.3
104 Hawaii 87.6 88.4 87.4 87.8
105 N. Mexico St. 88.3 86.4 88.5 87.7
106 Buffalo 85.1 87.5 87.2 86.6
107 Connecticut 84.9 88.0 85.0 86.0
108 Southern Miss. 85.3 86.7 85.2 85.7
109 Massachusetts 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
110 Akron 83.9 87.0 84.0 85.0
111 Georgia St. 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
112 N. Texas 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
113 Idaho 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
114 UL-Lafayette 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
115 S. Alabama 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
116 Nevada 82.8 85.3 84.2 84.1
117 East Carolina 82.5 84.1 82.4 83.0
118 Florida Int’l. 80.8 81.1 81.6 81.2
119 UL-Monroe 81.1 81.7 79.9 80.9
120 Kent St. 79.6 81.1 80.2 80.3
121 Bowling Green 79.5 80.4 79.9 79.9
122 Georgia Southern 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
123 Rice 77.7 78.8 77.9 78.1
124 San Jose St. 77.1 77.2 76.4 76.9
125 Ball St. 75.7 77.7 77.2 76.9
126 Charlotte 72.7 75.0 73.1 73.6
127 U T E P 71.7 75.0 71.9 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 70.8 72.1 72.3 71.8
129 Texas St. 71.1 73.7 70.0 71.6
130 UAB 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 2-0 5-0 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
Central Florida 1-0 3-0 110.7 112.3 111.8 111.6
Temple 0-2 2-3 92.7 93.1 92.6 92.8
Cincinnati 0-1 2-3 87.6 89.9 89.1 88.9
Connecticut 0-2 1-3 84.9 88.0 85.0 86.0
East Carolina 1-1 1-4 82.5 84.1 82.4 83.0
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 1-0 3-1 104.5 103.8 104.4 104.2
Navy 3-0 4-0 101.4 102.1 101.5 101.6
Memphis 0-1 3-1 101.7 100.8 101.8 101.4
SMU 1-0 4-1 99.0 99.1 99.6 99.2
Tulsa 0-1 1-4 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.7
Tulane 0-1 2-2 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 3-0 5-0 130.7 127.8 130.3 129.6
Florida St. 1-1 1-2 124.1 122.6 123.1 123.3
Louisville 1-1 4-1 116.3 115.2 116.4 116.0
N. Carolina St. 2-0 4-1 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
Syracuse 0-1 2-3 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
Wake Forest 1-1 4-1 106.8 105.7 106.5 106.3
Boston College 0-2 2-3 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 1-0 3-0 121.5 119.3 121.0 120.6
Virginia Tech 0-1 4-1 118.9 118.2 119.4 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-0 3-1 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
Duke 1-1 4-1 108.4 107.0 107.0 107.5
N. Carolina 0-3 1-4 106.8 105.6 104.9 105.8
Pittsburgh 0-1 2-3 104.9 105.2 104.2 104.8
Virginia 0-0 3-1 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
             
ACC Averages     112.9 111.7 112.4 112.3
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
Oklahoma St. 1-1 4-1 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
T C U 1-0 4-0 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
Texas 1-0 2-2 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
Kansas St. 1-0 3-1 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
West Virginia 1-0 3-1 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
Texas Tech 0-1 3-1 104.5 103.9 103.7 104.0
Iowa State 0-1 2-2 102.6 103.8 103.3 103.3
Baylor 0-2 0-5 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
Kansas 0-1 1-3 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.2 110.2 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 2-0 4-1 132.6 129.9 132.1 131.5
Penn St. 2-0 5-0 127.7 125.7 128.5 127.3
Michigan 1-0 4-0 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
Indiana 0-2 2-2 104.6 104.7 105.0 104.8
Maryland 1-0 3-1 103.9 105.8 104.1 104.6
Michigan St. 1-0 3-1 100.0 102.5 100.7 101.1
Rutgers 0-2 1-4 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 1-0 4-0 122.4 118.4 120.7 120.5
Northwestern 0-1 2-2 110.6 108.6 110.6 109.9
Iowa 0-2 3-2 109.6 109.8 109.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-1 3-1 107.3 107.5 106.9 107.2
Nebraska 2-0 3-2 102.0 103.4 101.3 102.2
Purdue 0-1 2-2 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
Illinois 0-1 2-2 89.7 91.2 88.5 89.8
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 2-2 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
Marshall 0-0 3-1 88.7 90.0 90.3 89.7
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
Middle Tennessee 0-1 2-3 89.0 89.8 89.4 89.4
Florida Atlantic 1-0 2-3 86.9 89.9 88.1 88.3
Florida Int’l. 2-0 3-1 80.8 81.1 81.6 81.2
Charlotte 0-1 0-5 72.7 75.0 73.1 73.6
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 3-0 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
Louisiana Tech 1-0 3-2 91.4 92.5 92.4 92.1
Southern Miss. 0-1 2-2 85.3 86.7 85.2 85.7
N. Texas 2-0 3-2 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
Rice 1-1 1-4 77.7 78.8 77.9 78.1
U T E P 0-1 0-5 71.7 75.0 71.9 72.9
UAB 0-1 2-2 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.8 85.5 84.6 84.6
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   4-1 115.7 114.5 116.5 115.5
Army   3-2 95.5 95.6 96.2 95.8
BYU   1-4 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3
Massachusetts   0-6 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
             
Indep. Averages     98.0 97.4 98.4 97.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 1-0 2-3 92.7 94.7 94.2 93.9
Ohio U 1-0 4-1 91.1 92.5 92.1 91.9
Buffalo 1-0 3-2 85.1 87.5 87.2 86.6
Akron 1-0 2-3 83.9 87.0 84.0 85.0
Kent St. 0-1 1-4 79.6 81.1 80.2 80.3
Bowling Green 0-1 0-5 79.5 80.4 79.9 79.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 1-0 3-2 102.7 101.0 104.2 102.6
Toledo 0-0 3-1 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
Eastern Michigan 0-1 2-2 95.5 95.1 95.5 95.4
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-2 90.2 90.0 90.7 90.3
Central Michigan 0-1 2-3 88.7 89.5 88.9 89.0
Ball St. 0-1 2-3 75.7 77.7 77.2 76.9
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 1-0 3-2 107.2 105.8 107.5 106.8
Boise St. 1-0 2-2 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
New Mexico 1-1 3-2 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
Wyoming 1-0 3-2 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
Air Force 0-2 1-3 91.9 92.5 92.1 92.2
Utah St. 1-0 3-2 92.6 91.5 92.1 92.1
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 5-0 101.9 102.0 102.8 102.2
U N L V 1-0 2-2 88.7 91.1 89.0 89.6
Fresno St. 1-0 2-2 89.8 88.5 90.3 89.6
Hawaii 0-2 2-3 87.6 88.4 87.4 87.8
Nevada 0-1 0-5 82.8 85.3 84.2 84.1
San Jose St. 0-2 1-5 77.1 77.2 76.4 76.9
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.4 92.5 92.4
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 2-0 5-0 130.0 126.9 130.7 129.2
Washington St. 2-0 5-0 118.3 116.1 117.8 117.4
Stanford 2-1 3-2 117.5 116.1 116.7 116.8
Oregon 1-1 4-1 113.4 110.5 112.6 112.2
California 0-2 3-2 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
Oregon St. 0-2 1-4 92.6 92.4 91.1 92.0
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 2-1 4-1 119.5 118.8 119.3 119.2
Colorado 0-2 3-2 111.5 109.5 109.4 110.1
U C L A 1-1 3-2 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
Utah 1-0 4-0 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
Arizona St. 1-1 2-3 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
Arizona 0-1 2-2 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.9 109.4 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 5-0 123.6 124.3 123.9 123.9
Florida 3-0 3-1 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.5
Kentucky 1-1 4-1 111.4 110.2 110.9 110.8
Vanderbilt 0-2 3-2 106.6 105.4 105.6 105.9
S. Carolina 1-2 3-2 104.9 104.2 103.7 104.3
Tennessee 0-2 3-2 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
Missouri 0-2 1-3 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 2-0 5-0 141.1 136.3 140.1 139.2
Auburn 2-0 4-1 126.8 124.6 126.9 126.1
L S U 0-1 3-2 111.8 110.3 112.2 111.4
Mississippi St. 1-2 3-2 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
Arkansas 0-1 2-2 106.2 105.6 105.7 105.9
Texas A&M 2-0 4-1 105.5 103.5 104.4 104.5
Ole Miss 0-1 2-2 102.8 101.3 100.9 101.7
             
SEC Averages     111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-2 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
Troy 1-0 4-1 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
N. Mexico St. 0-1 2-3 88.3 86.4 88.5 87.7
Georgia St. 0-0 1-2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
Idaho 1-0 2-2 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
UL-Lafayette 0-1 1-3 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
S. Alabama 0-1 1-4 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
UL-Monroe 2-0 2-2 81.1 81.7 79.9 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-3 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
Coastal Carolina 0-1 1-3 70.8 72.1 72.3 71.8
Texas St. 0-1 1-4 71.1 73.7 70.0 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.1 84.9 84.2 84.4

Ratings By Conference

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.9 111.7 112.4 112.3
2 SEC 111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.2 110.2 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.9 109.4 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.0 97.4 98.4 97.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.4 92.4 92.5 92.4
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.8 85.5 84.6 84.6
11 Sun Belt 84.1 84.9 84.2 84.4

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N. Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC [W. Kentucky] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Boise St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U New Mexico St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Buffalo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Fresno St.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Western Mich.
Potato MAC MWC Miami (O) Wyoming
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 Memphis Tennessee
Arm. Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army Nebraska
$ General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Hawaii
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Kansas St. UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Toledo] Michigan St.
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Colorado
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 [Old Dominion] [UNLV]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Virginia Maryland
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Arkansas
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy [Middle Tenn.]
Camp.Wrld ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern UCLA
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Duke Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Mississippi St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [Iowa]
Cotton At-large At-large Penn St. Georgia
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Minnesota South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Washington St. Wisconsin
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Louisville Ohio St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Texas A&M
Peach At-large At-large Notre Dame Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Miami (Fla.) Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Clemson Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Washington
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Bowl Contention/Elimination Season
Welcome to real Autumn. As the calendar page flips to October, college football season is in full bloom. Many schools will reach the halfway point of their schedule this weekend. Another sign that Autumn is here in earnest–college football picks up another day, as the Wednesday night scheduling begins this week.

If it’s October, then it is time to start looking at bowl eligibility. Obviously, there are dynasties like Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and others that are going to a bowl with 100% certainty, and there are teams like Charlotte, Kansas, and Oregon State that are definitely not going to a bowl.

There are about 80 teams in position to become bowl eligible, and maybe 55 to 60 of these schools will earn it, while the other 20 to 25 will fall short. We call this time of year, Bowl Contention/Elimination Season (BCES). Each week, there will be games where the winner will stay in contention for a bowl, while the loser will either be severely damaged or outright eliminated from bowl contention. Let’s take a look at some of the early BCES games in October.

Illinois (2-2) at Iowa (3-2). The loser of this game cannot find a path to 6-6. Illinois must win this game and then defeat Rutgers, and then two from Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, and Northwestern. If the Illini cannot beat Iowa, they cannot win four others. Iowa’s offense is struggling with new a new quarterback, receivers, and running backs. They will have to squeak by three more opponents and have a tough closing schedule.

Duke (4-1) at Virginia (3-1). This is not a bowl elimination game. The winner of this one is in very good shape to become bowl eligible, in fact close to 100% likely with just one loss.

Pittsburgh (2-3) at Syracuse (2-3). This is a true bowl eliminator. The winner moves to 3-3 and stays in contention for a bowl at probably 6-6, while the loser is not going to win four more games.

Florida International (3-1) at Middle Tennessee (2-3). This was not how it was supposed to be this year in CUSA. Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and Middle Tennessee are struggling, while FIU is in contention for the East Division title. For Middle, they have serious injury issues on offense, namely their quarterback and top two receivers. FIU has improved each week under Butch Davis, and a win this week probably gives the Panthers anywhere from 85-90% chance of getting to six wins.

Minnesota (3-1) at Purdue (2-2). This is a trap game for Minnesota. After losing a tough home game to Maryland, the Gophers travel to West Lafayette to take on a much-improved, confident Boilermaker team that will be coming off a bye week and will be playing in the memory of former great PU coach Joe Tiller, who recently passed away. Jeff Brohm will have Purdue fired up to win this game, and at 3-2, Purdue will be more than Spoilermakers; they will be serious bowl contenders.

Tulsa (1-4) at Tulane (2-2). The winner still has a chance to make a bowl this year. The loser has no chance. Green Wave second year coach Willie Fritz will start getting noticed by the big schools if he guides Tulane to a bowl in his second year in New Orleans. Fritz worked wonders at Georgia Southern, and before that, he turned programs around at Sam Houston State and Central Missouri. Fritz’s offense is unique in college football. It may look a lot like Army, Navy, and Georgia Tech’s triple option offense, but it is nothing like those three. It is more similar to the old Nebraska offense with zone blocking rules and regular (double) options with power running and quick passing. His style of play might work in the Big 12 or even the SEC. He might get a chance to interview at an SEC school in December if TU can make a run to a bowl.

Arkansas (2-2) at South Carolina (3-2). If Arkansas loses this game, the Razorbacks are in serious jeopardy of not getting to six wins this year, and it could be one of three or four SEC schools looking to replace a coach. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is okay to stay if he goes 5-7, but Brett Bielema may have a tough time keeping the job in Fayetteville if he doesn’t get the Razorbacks to eight wins.

UL-Lafayette (1-3) at Idaho (2-2). It is hard to beat Idaho in the Kibbie Dome in Moscow. There will be very little chance that ULL will recover to 6-6 if they lose to the Vandals this week. On the other side of the field, Idaho must get to seven wins to have a legitimate chance at a bowl. The Sun Belt will not go to bat for the Vandals unless they force the issue, because Idaho is dropping to FCS at the end of this year and will no longer be a SBC member. Only if the SBC has no other options, will Idaho get a fair shake.

Florida Atlantic (2-3) at Old Dominion (2-2). The winner of this one moves into decent contention for a bowl. It is our opinion that CUSA will end up with more bowl eligible teams than bowl contracts, but there are always other leagues that cannot fill their allotment of bowl bids. Due to geography, this league has an advantage in placing at-large teams in bowls.

Arizona (2-2) at Colorado (3-2). Rich Rodriguez is in serious trouble in Tucson, and anything short of a bowl invitation should be the end of his tenure in the desert. The Wildcats would need three more wins if they beat the Buffaloes at Folsom Field this week, but finding three more wins is still a tough task. Colorado would need just two more wins if they hold off the Wildcats in Boulder, and Mike MacIntyre has job security in the Rockies.

The Playoff Race, or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love A Threepeat
At this point in the season, it might be insane to think that any team other than Alabama or Clemson has a chance to make it to the College Football National Championship Game. Sure, there are a lot of really good teams, some that might run the table and enter the playoffs at 13-0. But, at this point of the season, the two powers look to be in a league of their own, headed to a rubber match in Atlanta, which would be the perfect neutral site.
How rare is it for the same two teams to play for the Championship of a sport three years in a row? In one word–Very! College football has only had a playoff for a couple years, and before that a BCS Championship, so the chances have not been there for it to happen. It could be argued that from 1944 to 1946, Army and Notre Dame played in essence the National Championship Game when they faced off at Yankee Stadium, but those games were in-season, and there was no guarantee that the winner would be the champion.
In the NFL, no two Super Bowl teams have every played each other three years in a row. Prior to the Super Bowl era, The Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns played for the NFL title in 1952, 1953, and 1954.

The New York Giants and New York Yankees squared off in three consecutive World Series in 1921, 1922, and 1923. In the NBA, the Warriors and Cavaliers have played each other for the title the last three years, and in the NHL, even though for many years there were not even 10 total teams (just 6 for many of those years), it has still been rare. Detroit and Montreal met for the Stanley Cup in 1954, 1955, and 1956.

 

September 28, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 28-October 2, 2017

After four weeks of the football season, our readers might just want to take a knee; then again, they might want to place that knee firmly in some PiRate groin!  Ouch!  1,000 apologies if you took our ill-adivsed advice!

Another losing week, and we are now in the hole to the tune of -25% return on our investment for the season.  We won only one of last week’s four selections, returning $245 on $400 invested.  The -25% return for the season comes from $899 returned on $1,200 invested, quite a hole to try to emerge from before the season runs out of dates.

Our one solace, and we hope this is yours as well, is that these are imaginary dollars.  We can continue to select a liberal amount of games and be a bit wild with our selections, because we are only out the time it takes to pick these games.

This week, you will notice that all of our selections are college football games.  There are no NFL picks.  Make of this what you want, and you will be partially correct.  For one, we just didn’t feel like looking at the NFL Money Lines.  None of us will attend any games this week, and as far as we know, none of us will be watching on TV or listening on the radio.  Another reason why we didn’t select any NFL games is that the league is extremely erratic this year.  The supposed sure-thing 0-16 Jets won big over a playoff contender, and the Texans with a rookie QB almost beat New England, so let’s just walk away from the NFL for now.  The politics can only make the outcomes more unpredictable.

That leaves us with college football, and there are a lot of good games this week.  By good, we mean games in which the favorite is in the 5 to 10 point range, which presents us excellent Money Line potentials.  We actually like one underdog winning outright on the road, and we are going to put that one out as a single entry.

Here are our 5 parlay selections for this week.  Remember this: The members of the PiRate Ratings are not foolish enough to wager real currency on these selections.  We are nervous enough with our value stock selections, which are real, so we don’t need the added stress.  You to should avoid the stress of worrying about losing $500 real dollars on these selections, so only wager imaginary money if you must.

#1 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
Georgia Tech North Carolina
Georgia Tennessee
Nebraska Illinois
#2 @ +150  
Must Win Must Lose
Iowa Michigan St.
#3 @ +146  
Must Win Must Lose
Central Florida Memphis
Cincinnati Marshall
#4 @ +128  
Must Win Must Lose
Kentucky Eastern Mich.
Western Mich. Ball St.
La. Tech South Alabama
Boston College Central Mich.
#5 @ +135  
Must Win Must Lose
UNLV San Jose St.
Florida Intl. Charlotte
San Diego St. N. Illinois
Florida Vanderbilt

 

 

 

 

September 25, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 28-30, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:08 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

September 28-30        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Texas -7.3 -6.9 -6.6
Duke Miami (Fla.) -5.4 -4.4 -6.1
Illinois Nebraska -6.7 -7.0 -6.8
Utah St. BYU -7.2 -7.3 -8.7
Washington St. USC 0.3 -1.6 -0.2
Georgia Tech North Carolina 7.3 5.8 6.9
Temple Houston -8.4 -6.7 -8.4
Minnesota Maryland 10.8 8.3 10.6
Florida Vanderbilt 11.4 12.1 11.5
Pittsburgh Rice 28.8 28.0 27.9
Arkansas New Mexico St. 21.4 23.0 21.3
Wisconsin Northwestern 15.7 13.2 13.7
East Carolina South Florida -24.4 -20.8 -25.4
North Carolina St. Syracuse 11.5 12.5 12.2
Boston College Central Michigan 12.0 11.7 11.0
Army UTEP 28.3 24.2 29.1
Tulsa Navy 6.7 5.0 6.8
Penn St. Indiana 24.5 22.4 24.5
Wake Forest Florida St. -15.7 -14.8 -15.2
Massachusetts Ohio U -3.1 -5.6 -4.0
Tennessee Georgia -7.7 -10.5 -9.9
Kansas St. Baylor 16.2 13.8 16.5
Kent St. Buffalo 0.6 -1.0 -0.7
SMU Connecticut 14.4 11.5 14.4
Kentucky Eastern Michigan 21.4 20.2 21.3
Stanford Arizona St. 19.3 17.9 19.4
Michigan St. Iowa -10.4 -7.1 -9.4
Wyoming Texas St. 25.7 21.2 25.2
Notre Dame Miami (O) 23.1 19.5 21.8
Bowling Green Akron -0.6 -3.7 0.4
Auburn Mississippi St. 17.5 14.2 17.0
Louisiana Tech South Alabama 9.2 7.3 10.0
Southern Miss. North Texas 9.2 8.4 8.8
Western Michigan Ball St. 23.4 19.5 23.0
Florida Int’l. Charlotte 12.8 10.3 13.5
Louisiana-Monroe Coastal Carolina 13.4 12.5 10.3
LSU Troy 25.1 23.0 26.6
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee -4.9 -2.1 -4.3
Cincinnati Marshall 7.3 8.5 7.8
New Mexico Air Force 2.3 2.0 2.5
Central Florida Memphis 0.4 3.6 1.1
Rutgers Ohio St. -30.5 -27.7 -30.3
Texas A&M South Carolina 2.6 1.1 2.3
Virginia Tech Clemson -7.9 -5.5 -6.4
Texas Tech Oklahoma St. -16.3 -14.8 -18.5
Oregon St. Washington -34.4 -31.1 -36.6
Alabama Ole Miss 34.6 31.3 35.3
Fresno St. Nevada 7.6 3.2 6.2
UCLA Colorado -0.6 0.9 1.1
UNLV San Jose St. 10.7 14.0 11.9
Oregon California 14.3 14.0 14.9
San Diego St. Northern Illinois 17.0 17.3 17.7
Hawaii Colorado St. -11.2 -8.6 -11.3
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Louisville Murray St. 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings (What They Have Done To Date)
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Oklahoma
5 USC
6 Penn St.
7 Georgia
8 Michigan
9 Ohio St.
10 Wisconsin
11 Miami (Fla)
12 TCU
13 Virginia Tech
14 Louisville
15 LSU
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Washington St.
18 Florida
19 South Florida
20 Stanford
21 Utah
22 San Diego St.
23 Minnesota
24 Auburn
25 Iowa
26 Mississippi St.
27 Duke
28 Central Florida
29 Kansas St.
30 Wake Forest
31 Texas Tech
32 North Carolina St.
33 Tennessee
34 Colorado
35 Georgia Tech
36 Notre Dame
37 Houston
38 West Virginia
39 Texas A&M
40 Oregon
41 Florida St.
42 Kentucky
43 South Carolina
44 Navy
45 Toledo
46 Vanderbilt
47 California
48 Memphis
49 Michigan St.
50 Northwestern
51 UCLA
52 Texas
53 Western Michigan
54 Maryland
55 Nebraska
56 Boise St.
57 Ole Miss
58 Arizona St.
59 Purdue
60 Indiana
61 UTSA
62 Virginia
63 SMU
64 Iowa St.
65 Colorado St.
66 Appalachian St.
67 Arkansas
68 Tulsa
69 Air Force
70 Pittsburgh
71 North Carolina
72 Troy
73 Northern Illinois
74 Arizona
75 Western Kentucky
76 Temple
77 Louisiana Tech
78 Tulane
79 BYU
80 Arkansas St.
81 Army
82 Southern Miss.
83 Eastern Michigan
84 Syracuse
85 Boston College
86 New Mexico
87 Illinois
88 Ohio
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Wyoming
91 Cincinnati
92 Old Dominion
93 Baylor
94 Miami (O)
95 Marshall
96 Idaho
97 Oregon St.
98 Central Michigan
99 Utah St.
100 Rutgers
101 Missouri
102 New Mexico St.
103 Hawaii
104 North Texas
105 Ball St.
106 Buffalo
107 Fresno St.
108 UL-Lafayette
109 Akron
110 South Alabama
111 Coastal Carolina
112 UL-Monroe
113 Nevada
114 Connecticut
115 East Carolina
116 Florida Int’l.
117 UNLV
118 Georgia St.
119 UAB
120 Kansas
121 Georgia Southern
122 Massachusetts
123 Rice
124 Kent St.
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Bowling Green
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Texas St.
130 Charlotte

The Predictive Ratings–These concentrate on the future and do not always reflect what the teams have done in the past.  Thus, a team can be rated higher than another team that beat them earlier this season.

PiRate Rating–Our oldest rating is based on analysis of statistical data against the strength of schedule to date.  It is more concerned with yards per point and predicting how many yards each team will gain and surrender rather than prior points scored and surrendered.

Mean Rating–This is a more conservative statistical rating, using the mean (average) of five separate statistical and scoring data points.  Updating this rating takes up most of our time on Sundays.  Of the three ratings we submit, this one is the most independent of the other two.

Bias Rating–This rating differs from the PiRate Rating only in how the algorithm is calculated.  We give a bias to certain factors, giving these more weight than others.  It is the most liberal rating in that our updating for this one allows teams to rise and fall by more points each week than in our other two ratings.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 132.7 136.4 135.5
2 Washington 130.0 126.7 130.7 129.1
3 Clemson 130.1 127.1 129.4 128.9
4 Ohio St. 130.0 127.3 129.3 128.9
5 Penn St. 126.9 124.9 127.5 126.4
6 Oklahoma 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
7 Florida St. 124.5 122.8 123.6 123.7
8 Auburn 124.2 121.9 124.1 123.4
9 Oklahoma St. 123.0 121.3 124.1 122.8
10 Wisconsin 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
11 Georgia 119.5 120.4 119.8 119.9
12 U S C 120.0 119.5 119.9 119.8
13 Virginia Tech 119.2 118.6 120.0 119.2
14 T C U 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
15 Miami 118.9 116.6 118.3 117.9
16 Stanford 117.9 116.3 117.3 117.2
17 Michigan 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
18 Washington St. 117.3 114.9 116.7 116.3
19 Louisville 116.1 115.0 116.2 115.8
20 N. Carolina St. 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
21 L S U 115.4 113.6 116.1 115.0
22 Florida 115.5 114.7 114.8 115.0
23 Kansas St. 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
24 Notre Dame 114.1 112.7 114.6 113.8
25 Texas 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
26 Kentucky 112.9 111.5 112.6 112.3
27 Georgia Tech 113.7 111.2 111.7 112.2
28 Oregon 113.0 110.2 112.1 111.8
29 South Florida 111.7 110.0 112.7 111.5
30 Iowa 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
31 Colorado 111.8 109.7 109.6 110.3
32 Mississippi St. 109.8 110.7 110.0 110.2
33 Duke 111.0 109.7 109.7 110.1
34 West Virginia 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
35 Northwestern 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
36 Minnesota 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
37 N. Carolina 109.4 108.4 107.8 108.5
38 Central Florida 107.0 108.9 108.0 108.0
39 U C L A 108.2 107.6 107.7 107.8
40 Utah 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
41 Tennessee 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.5
42 Syracuse 107.3 105.7 106.6 106.5
43 Vanderbilt 107.1 105.6 106.3 106.3
44 Arkansas 106.5 106.0 106.2 106.3
45 Wake Forest 106.4 105.5 106.0 105.9
46 Indiana 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6
47 S. Carolina 105.4 104.8 104.4 104.9
48 Ole Miss 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
49 Memphis 105.1 103.9 105.3 104.7
50 Pittsburgh 104.7 105.0 104.0 104.6
51 Colo. State 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
52 Houston 104.7 103.7 104.6 104.3
53 Texas A&M 105.0 102.9 103.7 103.9
54 Iowa State 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
55 Virginia 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
56 San Diego St. 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.3
57 Texas Tech 103.7 103.4 102.6 103.2
58 Maryland 101.7 104.0 101.7 102.4
59 Purdue 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
60 Baylor 100.9 103.0 100.9 101.6
61 Arizona St. 101.7 101.3 100.9 101.3
62 Nebraska 100.8 102.4 99.9 101.0
63 Tulsa 100.7 100.3 100.7 100.6
64 California 101.7 99.2 100.1 100.3
65 Toledo 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
66 Michigan St. 98.1 101.1 98.8 99.3
67 Navy 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
68 Western Michigan 99.4 97.6 100.7 99.2
69 Arizona 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
70 BYU 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
71 Boston College 98.8 99.2 98.2 98.7
72 SMU 98.2 98.3 98.6 98.4
73 Boise St. 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
75 U T S A 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
76 Army 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4
77 Rutgers 96.5 96.6 95.9 96.3
78 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
79 Miami (O) 94.0 96.2 95.8 95.3
80 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
81 Air Force 93.8 94.1 94.2 94.0
82 Eastern Michigan 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.9
83 W. Kentucky 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
84 Wyoming 94.6 93.1 93.2 93.6
85 New Mexico 93.1 93.1 93.7 93.3
86 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.5 93.1
87 Temple 92.5 93.2 92.4 92.7
88 Middle Tennessee 91.9 92.4 92.4 92.2
89 Cincinnati 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
90 Oregon St. 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
91 Illinois 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.8 92.4 91.7 91.6
93 Louisiana Tech 90.4 91.4 91.3 91.1
94 Hawaii 89.8 90.8 89.8 90.1
95 Central Michigan 89.3 90.0 89.6 89.6
96 Utah St. 90.2 89.3 89.2 89.6
97 Old Dominion 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
98 Northern Illinois 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
99 Arkansas St. 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
100 Kansas 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
101 Fresno St. 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
102 U N L V 87.0 89.9 87.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
104 N. Mexico St. 88.0 86.0 88.0 87.3
105 Connecticut 85.7 88.8 86.0 86.8
106 Marshall 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
107 Nevada 84.0 86.8 85.7 85.5
108 Florida Atlantic 84.0 87.3 85.1 85.5
109 Massachusetts 85.7 84.8 85.7 85.4
110 S. Alabama 84.2 87.1 84.4 85.2
111 Buffalo 83.3 86.0 85.3 84.9
112 Georgia St. 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
113 Idaho 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
114 UL-Lafayette 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
115 Akron 83.0 86.5 82.8 84.1
116 East Carolina 83.0 84.9 83.0 83.6
117 N. Texas 81.6 83.4 81.8 82.3
118 Kent St. 81.4 82.6 82.1 82.0
119 Florida Int’l. 81.6 81.7 82.6 82.0
120 UL-Monroe 81.4 81.9 80.0 81.1
121 Bowling Green 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
122 Ball St. 79.0 81.1 80.7 80.3
123 Georgia Southern 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
124 Rice 78.4 79.5 78.6 78.8
125 San Jose St. 78.8 78.4 78.0 78.4
126 Charlotte 71.9 74.4 72.1 72.8
127 Texas St. 71.9 74.8 71.0 72.6
128 U T E P 70.9 74.7 71.0 72.2
129 Coastal Carolina 70.5 71.9 72.2 71.6
130 UAB 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 1-0 4-0 111.7 110.0 112.7 111.5
Central Florida 0-0 2-0 107.0 108.9 108.0 108.0
Temple 0-1 2-2 92.5 93.2 92.4 92.7
Cincinnati 0-1 2-2 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
Connecticut 0-1 1-2 85.7 88.8 86.0 86.8
East Carolina 1-0 1-3 83.0 84.9 83.0 83.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 3-0 105.1 103.9 105.3 104.7
Houston 0-0 2-1 104.7 103.7 104.6 104.3
Tulsa 0-0 1-3 100.7 100.3 100.7 100.6
Navy 2-0 3-0 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
SMU 0-0 3-1 98.2 98.3 98.6 98.4
Tulane 0-1 2-2 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
             
AAC Averages     97.7 98.3 98.1 98.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 2-0 4-0 130.1 127.1 129.4 128.9
Florida St. 0-1 0-2 124.5 122.8 123.6 123.7
Louisville 1-1 3-2 116.1 115.0 116.2 115.8
N. Carolina St. 1-0 3-1 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
Syracuse 0-0 2-2 107.3 105.7 106.6 106.5
Wake Forest 1-0 4-0 106.4 105.5 106.0 105.9
Boston College 0-2 1-3 98.8 99.2 98.2 98.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 0-0 4-0 119.2 118.6 120.0 119.2
Miami 0-0 2-0 118.9 116.6 118.3 117.9
Georgia Tech 1-0 2-1 113.7 111.2 111.7 112.2
Duke 1-0 4-0 111.0 109.7 109.7 110.1
N. Carolina 0-2 1-3 109.4 108.4 107.8 108.5
Pittsburgh 0-1 1-3 104.7 105.0 104.0 104.6
Virginia 0-0 3-1 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
Oklahoma St. 0-1 3-1 123.0 121.3 124.1 122.8
T C U 1-0 4-0 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
Kansas St. 0-0 2-1 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
Texas 0-0 1-2 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
West Virginia 1-0 3-1 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
Iowa State 0-0 2-1 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
Texas Tech 0-0 3-0 103.7 103.4 102.6 103.2
Baylor 0-1 0-4 100.9 103.0 100.9 101.6
Kansas 0-1 1-3 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.1 110.2 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 3-1 130.0 127.3 129.3 128.9
Penn St. 1-0 4-0 126.9 124.9 127.5 126.4
Michigan 1-0 4-0 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
Indiana 0-1 2-1 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6
Maryland 0-0 2-1 101.7 104.0 101.7 102.4
Michigan St. 0-0 2-1 98.1 101.1 98.8 99.3
Rutgers 0-1 1-3 96.5 96.6 95.9 96.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 3-0 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
Iowa 0-1 3-1 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
Northwestern 0-0 2-1 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-0 3-0 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
Purdue 0-1 2-2 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
Nebraska 1-0 2-2 100.8 102.4 99.9 101.0
Illinois 0-0 2-1 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.7 108.5 108.7
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 2-2 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
Middle Tennessee 0-0 2-2 91.9 92.4 92.4 92.2
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
Marshall 0-0 2-1 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-3 84.0 87.3 85.1 85.5
Florida Int’l. 1-0 2-1 81.6 81.7 82.6 82.0
Charlotte 0-0 0-4 71.9 74.4 72.1 72.8
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 3-0 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
Louisiana Tech 1-0 2-2 90.4 91.4 91.3 91.1
Southern Miss. 0-0 2-1 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
N. Texas 1-0 2-2 81.6 83.4 81.8 82.3
Rice 1-1 1-3 78.4 79.5 78.6 78.8
U T E P 0-1 0-4 70.9 74.7 71.0 72.2
UAB 0-1 2-2 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.5 85.2 84.3 84.3
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   3-1 114.1 112.7 114.6 113.8
BYU   1-3 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
Army   2-2 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4
Massachusetts   0-5 85.7 84.8 85.7 85.4
             
Indep. Averages     98.7 97.9 99.2 98.6
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 1-0 2-2 94.0 96.2 95.8 95.3
Ohio U 1-0 3-1 90.8 92.4 91.7 91.6
Buffalo 0-0 2-2 83.3 86.0 85.3 84.9
Akron 0-0 1-3 83.0 86.5 82.8 84.1
Kent St. 0-0 1-3 81.4 82.6 82.1 82.0
Bowling Green 0-0 0-4 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 3-1 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
Western Michigan 0-0 2-2 99.4 97.6 100.7 99.2
Eastern Michigan 0-1 2-1 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.9
Central Michigan 0-1 2-2 89.3 90.0 89.6 89.6
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
Ball St. 0-0 2-2 79.0 81.1 80.7 80.3
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.7 89.5 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 2-2 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
Boise St. 1-0 2-2 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
Air Force 0-1 1-2 93.8 94.1 94.2 94.0
Wyoming 1-0 2-2 94.6 93.1 93.2 93.6
New Mexico 0-1 2-2 93.1 93.1 93.7 93.3
Utah St. 1-0 2-2 90.2 89.3 89.2 89.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 4-0 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.3
Hawaii 0-1 2-2 89.8 90.8 89.8 90.1
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
U N L V 0-0 1-2 87.0 89.9 87.4 88.1
Nevada 0-0 0-4 84.0 86.8 85.7 85.5
San Jose St. 0-1 1-4 78.8 78.4 78.0 78.4
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 1-0 4-0 130.0 126.7 130.7 129.1
Stanford 1-1 2-2 117.9 116.3 117.3 117.2
Washington St. 1-0 4-0 117.3 114.9 116.7 116.3
Oregon 0-1 3-1 113.0 110.2 112.1 111.8
California 0-1 3-1 101.7 99.2 100.1 100.3
Oregon St. 0-1 1-3 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 2-0 4-0 120.0 119.5 119.9 119.8
Colorado 0-1 3-1 111.8 109.7 109.6 110.3
U C L A 0-1 2-2 108.2 107.6 107.7 107.8
Utah 1-0 4-0 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
Arizona St. 1-0 2-2 101.7 101.3 100.9 101.3
Arizona 0-1 2-2 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 1-0 4-0 119.5 120.4 119.8 119.9
Florida 2-0 2-1 115.5 114.7 114.8 115.0
Kentucky 1-1 3-1 112.9 111.5 112.6 112.3
Tennessee 0-1 3-1 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.5
Vanderbilt 0-1 3-1 107.1 105.6 106.3 106.3
S. Carolina 1-1 3-1 105.4 104.8 104.4 104.9
Missouri 0-2 1-3 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 1-0 4-0 137.5 132.7 136.4 135.5
Auburn 1-0 3-1 124.2 121.9 124.1 123.4
L S U 0-1 3-1 115.4 113.6 116.1 115.0
Mississippi St. 1-1 3-1 109.8 110.7 110.0 110.2
Arkansas 0-1 1-2 106.5 106.0 106.2 106.3
Ole Miss 0-0 2-1 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
Texas A&M 1-0 3-1 105.0 102.9 103.7 103.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.5 111.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-2 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
Troy 1-0 3-1 93.3 93.6 92.5 93.1
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
N. Mexico St. 0-1 2-2 88.0 86.0 88.0 87.3
S. Alabama 0-1 1-3 84.2 87.1 84.4 85.2
Georgia St. 0-0 1-2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
Idaho 1-0 2-2 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
UL-Lafayette 0-1 1-3 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
UL-Monroe 1-0 1-2 81.4 81.9 80.0 81.1
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-3 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
Texas St. 0-1 1-3 71.9 74.8 71.0 72.6
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-2 70.5 71.9 72.2 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.0 84.8 84.0 84.3

How The Conferences Rate

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.5 111.5
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.7 108.5 108.7
6 INDEP. 98.7 97.9 99.2 98.6
7 AAC 97.7 98.3 98.1 98.0
8 MWC 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.6 89.7 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.5 85.2 84.3 84.3
11 Sun Belt 84.0 84.8 84.0 84.3

Alabama Takes Commanding Lead
Alabama’s most recent victory, a 59-0 pasting of Vanderbilt, propelled the top-ranked Tide into a rather lofty status this week. With the win, accompanied by unimpressive wins by Clemson and Oklahoma, Alabama has now opened a better than six-point cushion in the PiRate Ratings over the number two team. It is not often in PiRate Ratings’ history that a number one team has been rated more than six points ahead of the number two team. It puts ‘Bama in esteemed company. Since our ratings started in 1969, only two other number one teams held a greater than six-point edge over the number two team at the end of a season. Unfortunately, we do not have in-season information on our ratings prior to 1989.

If you were wondering, the other two teams that held a better than six-point edge on the field were Miami (Fla.) in 2001 and Nebraska in 1995. This does not mean that Alabama is one of the three best teams in our history; it just means they are in line to become one of three of the most dominant in a single season when compared to others from that particular year.  Alabama’s current rating is still historically lower than many others, namely Nebraska and Oklahoma of 1971, USC of 1972, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma of 1973, Oklahoma of 1974, Miami (Fla.) of 1987, USC of 2004, and Texas of 2005.
New Number Two
Speaking of number two, there is a new team in that position yet again. To date, the number two team has changed each week. This week, that distinguished honor goes to Washington (although Clemson stayed number two in our retrodictive ratings).

Best Group of 5
South Florida and San Diego State opened a little room over most of the rest of the Group of 5 field in the quest to receive the lone automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid awarded to this group.  However, one new team moved into contention to make this an interesting three-team race at this point. Central Florida not only won at Maryland, they destroyed the Terps. UCF Head Coach Scott Frost just established himself as a potential front-runner to return to his alma mater the moment Nebraska makes its next coaching change.

The Three Best Games This Week
The ACC passed the SEC in PiRate Rating superiority last week and slightly widened that lead this past weekend. Now, it showcases two of the top three games of this week.

Clemson may have been looking ahead to this week and thus failed to thrive for more than a half against Boston College. The Tigers face what is probably their stiffest test of the regular season with a trip to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech in the Saturday night prime-time game on ABC. Virginia Tech’s defense may be strong enough to keep the Hokies in the game and give Tech a legitimate chance at the upset.

Miami visits Durham to take on Duke in a game that will go far in deciding who will contend with Virginia Tech in the Coastal Division.

The other key game this week takes place Friday Night in the Palouse, where USC invades Pullman to take on Washington State. It promises to be a game with a lot of passing yards and total points scored, and it might be one of those four-hour marathons. It just could be the most exciting game of September.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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