The Pi-Rate Ratings

June 20, 2017

The PiRate Ratings Are Hard At Work

Welcome back gridiron fans.  The PiRates are back at sea working hard on getting their treasure for the 2017-18 season.

There will be a few tweaks to the formulas this season as we refine our ratings to make them as accurate as possible, and we are excited about it.

Tweak #1: Our first tweak involves increasing the alteration of each college football teams’ rate of adjustment as it applies to depth concerns.  If a team is stacked two-deep with talent, they should be able to endure a long, hard season.  But, if the team is only good in their starting lineup, and they lack the depth, they will weaken as the season goes on.  Consider two teams, State and Tech.  State and Tech are about equal in talent in their starting lineups, and on August 25, they are exactly the same in power rating.  For the sake of argument, let’s say they both look like 9-3 teams in a power 5 conference and have identical ratings of 118.0.

In the month of September, State and Tech both go 4-0 over similar competition, and their statistics show that they are still basically the same in talent and results.  Both teams ratings go up, but State’s go up a tad more than Tech’s, due to the depth issue.  Through four games, it won’t be all that much, and now on the First Monday in October, State is now 122.5, and Tech is 121.8.

In October, State and Tech both go 3-1 to sit at 7-1 with four games to go.  Both teams have lost some key players by now, but State has plugged in able second-teamers to fill the spots, while Tech has been forced to go with talent not up to Power 5 conference standards.  State’s wins have been a little easier, and their loss was much closer than Tech’s wins and loss.  Now, State has a rating of 123.1, while Tech has fallen a bit to 119.5.

In November, State finishes strong, going 3-1 to finish the regular season at 10-2.  Tech falters going 1-3 to finish 8-4.

We see this every year.  We believe we can factor in this depth issue into our ratings before the season begins, and we can adjust the rate of adjustment during the season as a team sees key players leave the lineup.  It also works in reverse; a team may have a blessing of several new underclassmen beginning to contribute.

Look at Georgia in 1980.  Hershel Walker was a true freshman.  In the second half of the season opener against Tennessee, Coach Vince Dooley inserted Walker into the game with the Bulldogs trailing by double-digits, and Walker turned the game around in his first 10 carries.  Georgia won the game, and Walker led the Bulldogs to an undefeated National Championship.  Had this new twist of our ratings been in effect then, The Bulldogs might have improved by an unprecedented 10 points between game one and game two.  As it was then, it took several weeks until Georgia’s rating really reflected their power, all because of one freshman.

This can just as easily happen to an average team that loses a couple of key players.  There have been instances when a team has lost a dozen key players by the end of October.  If it is Alabama, the Crimson Tide might be five points weaker than they would have been with the dozen players still healthy.  But, if it is Iowa State, the Cyclones might be 15 points weaker with the loss of these dozen players.

Going back to the unexpected bonanza, what if a team has five or six redshirt freshmen that have displaced upperclassmen in the starting lineup?  Obviously, this team must now be better talent-wise if starters have been replaced  (unless the coach has thrown in the towel on the season and is looking to the future).  What started as a so-so season may continue as a better season because the surprising advancement of the freshmen has made this team a touchdown better than it was earlier in the season.

The PiRate Ratings will adjust for this during the season by increasing or decreasing the adjustment rate of the teams after each Saturday.  Because the PiRate Ratings always show a total average of 100.0, that means teams might lose ground in the ratings after a good game, because other teams now earn more bonus for their play on the field.  It will be a work in progress, but in the end, we believe it will lead to more accurate ratings.

 

Tweak #2: Our basketball ratings have always been Four Factors-based.  We have three different algorithms using the Four Factors Data.  Football also has its factors.  In fact, in football, there are five factors.  They are, in order of importance: Explosiveness, Efficiency, Field Position, Finishing Drives, and Turnovers.   You can find excellent content online about these factors–some explain in detail like a thesis, while others give you a quick outline.

For our purposes, we have changed how we use the box scores of the games in our updating formula.  We will look more at Explosiveness and Efficiency when we update the teams’ ratings every week.  Additionally, we will keep an unpublished running score on how consistent teams are in being able to move the ball and stop the movement of the other team.  Which leads us to our big breakthrough for 2017-18.

Big Breakthrough

Have you ever noticed that over the course of an era, a team may celebrate a national championship or conference championship when they appear to not be as good as prior teams or soon see future teams that look better but do not win the championship?  You have probably seen that a really good team goes 10-2 or 11-1 and demolishes most of their opponents but suffered a terrible upset.  Then, that team runs the table but wins most of their games by nice amounts but by no means blowouts.

Think of a team that wins 55-17 and 38-10 or something similar for most of the season and then falls 31-27 to a mediocre team.  This team leads the nation in total offense or scoring defense, but they always fall a game short of the accomplishment.  But, then along comes a season where this school wins 31-20, 27-14 or something similar and runs the table.  They finish well down in total offense and near the top in scoring defense, but they go undefeated.

We have seen this happen multiple times in the last 30 years.  The dominating team is not as consistent as the team that went undefeated, and in three out of 10 games, the less consistent power may be two touchdowns better than the undefeated champion.  However, 70% of the time, the undefeated champion will be better than the dominating team.

The PiRates have tried to assign value or lack of value to the consistency of a team, but this is something that takes a good sampling of games.  This adjustment will be used in November after all teams have played 2/3 of their regular season schedule.  By then, we should have a grasp of what teams are staying consistent, and what teams are all over the map.  We will not adjust their ratings, because you never know if your inconsistent team will deviate 14 points above their rating or 14 points below.  What we will do is search for consistency when we select our Money Line plays.  We might be crazy, because we are coming off two consecutive profitable Money Line seasons (just for fun and not real wagering), so we might be cutting off our noses to spite our faces.

Enjoy your summer.  Football season will be here before you know it.  The PiRates are actually ahead of schedule this year with their college football updates, and we should have enough time to expand our preseason coverage this year.

January 11, 2017

Final 2016-17 College Football Ratings

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 7:07 am

Congratulations to the Clemson Tigers.  Raspberries to the NCAA.

Sadly, the viewing numbers for the National Championship game were quite low.  Aside from not being available on free TV, the college game greatly needs changes to shorten its duration.

The National Championship Game took more than four hours to play (someone on local radio mentioned it took about an hour to play the last six minutes of the game!  The game finished past Midnight on the East Coast on a weeknight.  Many fans that hoped to see the entire game fell asleep before the conclusion, and Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh admitted he was one of those that could not stay awake.

The college game needs massive change and quickly.  It is in danger of suffering from some of the same issues that have caused Major League Baseball to lose viewers.

Our recommendations for the college game include implementing many of the NFL rules:

1. No stoppage of the clock after first downs–implement a 2-minute warning for both halves.  The clock did not always stop after first downs in the college game.  That rule came in about 60 years ago.  At the time, college games lasted around 2 hours and 20 minutes in duration with about 110 plays from scrimmage.

2. Each team should receive 3 replay challenge flags per game for review.  Only the teams should instigate the reviewing of a play, except for scoring plays and plays involving a change of possession.

3. Halftime should be reduced to 12 minutes in duration

 

Other Rules Changes we advocate.

1. Pass interference returning to the same penalty as it is in the NFL.  Giving up 15 yards and a first down should never be a defensive option to use strategically.  Teams take advantage of this rule, especially late in the game, when a 15-yard advancement of the ball is disadvantageous.  This rule was changed in the 1980’s.

 

2. A player in possession of the ball should not down until he is touched.  A slippery surface should never be allowed to make a tackle for the defense.  A great catch by a receiver should not be the end of the play if no defensive player is there to stop him.

 

3. Overtimes should be changed to the current NFL OT rule, and ties should be allowed after 15 minutes.  If a playoff game ends in a regulation tie, regular sudden death overtime instead of the ridiculous 25-yard line overtime should be used.

 

The college game would be best served if the national average for scrimmage plays per game was about 120 and games did not exceed 3 hours in length.

We now step off our soapbox.  Here are our final ratings for the season.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Clemson 137.4 131.9 136.9 135.4
2 Alabama 134.5 128.2 134.6 132.4
3 Washington 132.2 125.1 131.5 129.6
4 Michigan 127.0 125.1 126.7 126.3
5 Oklahoma 126.5 124.4 126.5 125.8
6 LSU 126.6 121.9 126.3 124.9
7 Ohio St. 124.6 123.7 124.6 124.3
8 USC 124.2 119.4 122.7 122.1
9 Florida St. 123.2 117.5 122.6 121.1
10 Oklahoma St. 120.1 120.5 119.5 120.0
11 Penn St. 120.0 119.7 120.1 119.9
12 Louisville 120.2 116.9 119.8 119.0
13 Auburn 119.2 117.4 119.0 118.5
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 117.7 118.9 118.5
15 Wisconsin 118.8 116.9 119.3 118.3
16 Miami 119.1 114.1 119.1 117.4
17 Florida 115.5 115.7 114.3 115.2
18 Pittsburgh 116.0 112.1 115.2 114.4
19 North Carolina 115.9 110.6 115.4 114.0
20 Western Michigan 113.1 112.8 114.7 113.5
21 Stanford 115.2 109.6 115.0 113.3
22 Kansas St. 112.7 113.9 112.9 113.2
23 Tennessee 113.6 111.2 112.7 112.5
24 Washington St. 113.5 110.9 112.9 112.5
25 Colorado 113.6 110.1 113.5 112.4
26 Western Kentucky 112.4 110.4 113.8 112.2
27 Iowa 112.8 110.3 112.4 111.8
28 Texas A&M 112.1 111.2 111.2 111.5
29 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
30 West Virginia 111.2 110.5 110.7 110.8
31 Utah 112.5 107.8 111.1 110.5
32 Temple 109.9 109.1 110.6 109.9
33 North Carolina St. 111.1 107.3 111.0 109.8
34 Georgia Tech 110.9 107.2 110.1 109.4
35 Northwestern 110.6 107.1 109.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.5 107.8 110.1 109.1
37 Arkansas 110.8 106.3 110.0 109.1
38 Tulsa 108.0 109.2 108.5 108.6
39 BYU 109.8 106.1 109.7 108.5
40 Georgia 108.7 108.2 108.1 108.3
41 Minnesota 108.8 107.1 108.6 108.2
42 San Diego St. 107.0 105.6 109.0 107.2
43 TCU 107.0 108.6 105.9 107.2
44 Houston 106.8 105.8 107.7 106.8
45 Mississippi St. 107.7 105.8 106.5 106.7
46 Baylor 105.8 106.1 105.9 105.9
47 Nebraska 106.2 104.0 105.8 105.3
48 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
49 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
50 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
51 Navy 104.0 103.8 103.9 103.9
52 Indiana 103.7 104.6 103.2 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 105.2 102.2 103.9 103.8
54 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
55 Memphis 104.4 102.3 103.8 103.5
56 Kentucky 103.4 103.4 103.0 103.3
57 Boise St. 102.5 103.8 103.1 103.1
58 Toledo 102.2 102.9 103.1 102.7
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Wake Forest 102.8 101.0 103.0 102.3
61 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
62 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
63 Appalachian St. 100.0 101.2 101.6 100.9
64 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Louisiana Tech 97.7 99.7 99.5 99.0
68 Air Force 98.2 100.0 98.6 98.9
69 Boston College 99.6 98.1 99.0 98.9
70 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
71 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
72 South Carolina 98.8 98.3 98.3 98.5
73 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
74 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
75 Arkansas St. 95.8 98.2 97.7 97.2
76 Colorado St. 95.7 97.8 96.7 96.7
77 New Mexico 94.9 96.8 95.7 95.8
78 Maryland 95.7 97.6 94.1 95.8
79 Central Florida 95.0 96.3 95.5 95.6
80 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
81 Wyoming 94.4 94.5 95.5 94.8
82 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
83 Army 91.3 96.8 92.6 93.6
84 Troy 91.3 95.2 93.2 93.2
85 Ohio 91.1 96.7 91.6 93.2
86 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
87 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
88 Miami (O) 90.9 92.6 92.3 91.9
89 Old Dominion 89.6 92.5 90.8 91.0
90 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
91 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
92 UTSA 87.5 93.0 89.9 90.2
93 Idaho 87.7 92.0 90.0 89.9
94 Central Michigan 89.0 91.1 89.4 89.8
95 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.6 89.0 89.1 88.9
98 Eastern Michigan 87.4 89.5 88.1 88.3
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
102 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
103 Middle Tennessee 86.3 88.1 86.6 87.0
104 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
105 UL-Lafayette 84.6 88.2 86.0 86.3
106 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
107 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
111 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
112 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
113 South Alabama 81.2 87.2 81.7 83.4
114 Hawaii 83.1 83.0 83.1 83.1
115 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
116 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
117 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
118 Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 North Texas 77.5 80.5 77.9 78.7
121 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
127 UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
128 Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 109.9 109.1 110.6 109.9
South Florida 109.5 107.8 110.1 109.1
Central Florida 95.0 96.3 95.5 95.6
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tulsa 108.0 109.2 108.5 108.6
Houston 106.8 105.8 107.7 106.8
Navy 104.0 103.8 103.9 103.9
Memphis 104.4 102.3 103.8 103.5
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 98.4 98.5 98.7 98.6
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 137.4 131.9 136.9 135.4
Florida St. 123.2 117.5 122.6 121.1
Louisville 120.2 116.9 119.8 119.0
North Carolina St. 111.1 107.3 111.0 109.8
Wake Forest 102.8 101.0 103.0 102.3
Boston College 99.6 98.1 99.0 98.9
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.9 117.7 118.9 118.5
Miami 119.1 114.1 119.1 117.4
Pittsburgh 116.0 112.1 115.2 114.4
North Carolina 115.9 110.6 115.4 114.0
Georgia Tech 110.9 107.2 110.1 109.4
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 112.5 109.2 112.0 111.2
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 126.5 124.4 126.5 125.8
Oklahoma St. 120.1 120.5 119.5 120.0
Kansas St. 112.7 113.9 112.9 113.2
West Virginia 111.2 110.5 110.7 110.8
TCU 107.0 108.6 105.9 107.2
Baylor 105.8 106.1 105.9 105.9
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.7 108.3 107.0 107.7
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 127.0 125.1 126.7 126.3
Ohio St. 124.6 123.7 124.6 124.3
Penn St. 120.0 119.7 120.1 119.9
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.7 104.6 103.2 103.8
Maryland 95.7 97.6 94.1 95.8
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 118.8 116.9 119.3 118.3
Iowa 112.8 110.3 112.4 111.8
Northwestern 110.6 107.1 109.7 109.1
Minnesota 108.8 107.1 108.6 108.2
Nebraska 106.2 104.0 105.8 105.3
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.4 106.1 106.7 106.7
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 112.4 110.4 113.8 112.2
Old Dominion 89.6 92.5 90.8 91.0
Middle Tennessee 86.3 88.1 86.6 87.0
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 97.7 99.7 99.5 99.0
UTSA 87.5 93.0 89.9 90.2
Southern Mississippi 88.6 89.0 89.1 88.9
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.5 80.5 77.9 78.7
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.8 88.0 85.8 86.2
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 109.8 106.1 109.7 108.5
Army 91.3 96.8 92.6 93.6
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Independents Averages 98.3 99.4 98.6 98.7
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.1 96.7 91.6 93.2
Miami (O) 90.9 92.6 92.3 91.9
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.1 112.8 114.7 113.5
Toledo 102.2 102.9 103.1 102.7
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 89.0 91.1 89.4 89.8
Eastern Michigan 87.4 89.5 88.1 88.3
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.1 92.5 90.9 91.2
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 102.5 103.8 103.1 103.1
Air Force 98.2 100.0 98.6 98.9
Colorado St. 95.7 97.8 96.7 96.7
New Mexico 94.9 96.8 95.7 95.8
Wyoming 94.4 94.5 95.5 94.8
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 107.0 105.6 109.0 107.2
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 83.1 83.0 83.1 83.1
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.4 92.8 91.9 92.0
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 132.2 125.1 131.5 129.6
Stanford 115.2 109.6 115.0 113.3
Washington St. 113.5 110.9 112.9 112.5
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.2 119.4 122.7 122.1
Colorado 113.6 110.1 113.5 112.4
Utah 112.5 107.8 111.1 110.5
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 109.9 106.0 108.8 108.2
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 115.5 115.7 114.3 115.2
Tennessee 113.6 111.2 112.7 112.5
Georgia 108.7 108.2 108.1 108.3
Vanderbilt 105.2 102.2 103.9 103.8
Kentucky 103.4 103.4 103.0 103.3
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.8 98.3 98.3 98.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 134.5 128.2 134.6 132.4
LSU 126.6 121.9 126.3 124.9
Auburn 119.2 117.4 119.0 118.5
Texas A&M 112.1 111.2 111.2 111.5
Arkansas 110.8 106.3 110.0 109.1
Mississippi St. 107.7 105.8 106.5 106.7
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.5 109.3 110.8 110.5
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 100.0 101.2 101.6 100.9
Arkansas St. 95.8 98.2 97.7 97.2
Troy 91.3 95.2 93.2 93.2
Idaho 87.7 92.0 90.0 89.9
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
UL-Lafayette 84.6 88.2 86.0 86.3
South Alabama 81.2 87.2 81.7 83.4
Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.7 86.1 84.2 84.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC Averages 112.5 109.2 112.0 111.2
2 SEC Averages 111.5 109.3 110.8 110.5
3 Pac-12 Averages 109.9 106.0 108.8 108.2
4 Big 12 Averages 107.7 108.3 107.0 107.7
5 Big Ten Averages 107.4 106.1 106.7 106.7
6 Indep. Averages 98.3 99.4 98.6 98.7
7 AAC Averages 98.4 98.5 98.7 98.6
8 MWC Averages 91.4 92.8 91.9 92.0
9 MAC Averages 90.1 92.5 90.9 91.2
10 CUSA Averages 84.8 88.0 85.8 86.2
11 Sun Belt Averages 82.7 86.1 84.2 84.3

Note–This breaks a long streak where the SEC finished as the highest-rated conference.  The ACC surpassed the SEC thanks to an incredible bowl season that included Clemson beating Alabama, Georgia Tech beating Kentucky, Virginia Tech beating Arkansas, and North Carolina State beating Vanderbilt.

Retrodictive Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Ohio St.
4 Washington
5 Oklahoma
6 Michigan
7 Florida St.
8 USC
9 Wisconsin
10 Penn St.
11 LSU
12 Stanford
13 Western Michigan
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Florida
16 Virginia Tech
17 Colorado
18 Miami (Fla)
19 Louisville
20 Auburn
21 Tennessee
22 West Virginia
23 Western Kentucky
24 Kansas St.
25 South Florida
26 Pittsburgh
27 Utah
28 Georgia Tech
29 Washington St.
30 Tulsa
31 Minnesota
32 Texas A&M
33 Iowa
34 Nebraska
35 North Carolina
36 Appalachian St.
37 San Diego St.
38 BYU
39 Boise St.
40 Temple
41 Houston
42 Georgia
43 Northwestern
44 Troy
45 Air Force
46 North Carolina St.
47 Toledo
48 Arkansas
49 Navy
50 Memphis
51 Baylor
52 Kentucky
53 Old Dominion
54 Vanderbilt
55 Ole Miss
56 Mississippi St.
57 TCU
58 New Mexico
59 California
60 Louisiana Tech
61 Wake Forest
62 Colorado St.
63 Wyoming
64 Idaho
65 Boston College
66 Indiana
67 Notre Dame
68 Arkansas St.
69 Texas
70 UCLA
71 Central Florida
72 South Carolina
73 Oregon
74 Arizona St.
75 Maryland
76 Oregon St.
77 Army
78 Ohio
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Texas Tech
81 Missouri
82 Syracuse
83 Middle Tennessee
84 Southern Miss.
85 Duke
86 Michigan St.
87 SMU
88 Northern Illinois
89 Iowa St.
90 UTSA
91 Hawaii
92 UL-Lafayette
93 Central Michigan
94 Georgia Southern
95 Arizona
96 Miami (O)
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Virginia
104 Purdue
105 Bowling Green
106 San Jose St.
107 Nevada
108 North Texas
109 East Carolina
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 Rutgers
113 UL-Monroe
114 Kent St.
115 Kansas
116 Georgia St.
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Fresno St.
127 Texas St.
128 Buffalo

 

January 5, 2017

Ratings & Spreads For 2017 National Championship Game

Just the Facts, Please

NCAA FBS National Championship Game

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0) vs. #2 Clemson Tigers (13-1) 

Date: Monday, January 9, 2017

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

TV: ESPN

Online: WatchESPN app

Site: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Radio: ESPN Radio and ESPNRadio.com

To find your local radio affiliate: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/affiliate

 

Handicapper’s Corner

Las Vegas Spread: Alabama by 6 1/2

Las Vegas Totals: 51

 

PiRate Rating: Alabama by 7.1

Mean Rating: Alabama by 6.3

Bias Rating: Alabama by 7.7

Note: The firing of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and replacing him with Steve Sarkisian has bot been factored into our three ratings.  

100 Simulations

Alabama Wins: 73

Clemson Wins: 27

Average Score: Alabama 31  Clemson 22

Outlier A: Alabama 38  Clemson 7

Outlier B: Clemson 34  Alabama 26

December 11, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For Bowl Season 2016-2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:25 am

The 2016 regular season is now in the books, and the PiRates have been busy the last 16 hours readying our bowl season ratings and predictions.

Here are the Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings, starting with the Predictive PiRate, Mean, and Bias.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 132.5 138.7 136.6
2 Washington 133.0 125.8 132.4 130.4
3 Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
4 Clemson 129.5 123.5 128.7 127.2
5 Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
6 Oklahoma 125.2 123.3 125.1 124.5
7 LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
8 USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
9 Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
10 Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
11 Penn St. 119.9 119.7 120.0 119.9
12 Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
13 Wisconsin 118.7 116.7 119.1 118.2
14 Virginia Tech 118.7 116.9 118.8 118.1
15 Oklahoma St. 116.6 117.9 116.0 116.8
16 Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
17 Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
18 Colorado 117.1 112.7 117.0 115.6
19 Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
20 North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
21 Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
22 Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
23 Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
24 Kansas St. 111.9 113.7 111.9 112.5
25 Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
26 Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
27 Florida 112.4 112.9 110.9 112.1
28 West Virginia 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6
29 Temple 111.5 110.6 112.3 111.5
30 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
31 Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
32 Western Kentucky 110.7 108.8 112.1 110.5
33 Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
34 South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
35 Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
36 BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
37 Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
38 Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
39 Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
40 TCU 107.4 109.1 106.4 107.6
41 North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
42 Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
43 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
44 Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
45 Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
46 Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
47 Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
48 Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
49 Navy 105.2 104.8 105.2 105.1
50 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
51 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
52 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
53 Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
54 San Diego St. 103.8 102.6 105.6 104.0
55 Baylor 103.8 104.2 103.8 103.9
56 Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
57 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
58 Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
61 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
62 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
63 Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
64 Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
68 Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
69 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
70 Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
71 Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
72 Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
73 South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
74 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
75 Louisiana Tech 96.5 98.7 98.2 97.8
76 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
77 New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
78 Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
79 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
80 Arkansas St. 93.1 95.8 94.8 94.6
81 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
82 Wyoming 93.5 94.1 94.5 94.0
83 Army 91.6 97.1 92.9 93.9
84 Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
85 Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
86 Troy 91.0 94.8 92.8 92.9
87 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
88 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
89 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
90 Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
91 Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
92 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
93 UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
94 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
95 Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
98 Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Idaho 85.6 90.4 87.8 87.9
102 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
103 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
104 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
105 UL-Lafayette 84.8 88.6 86.4 86.6
106 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
107 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 South Alabama 81.8 88.0 82.5 84.1
111 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
112 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
113 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
114 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
115 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
116 Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
117 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
118 Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
121 North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
127 UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
128 Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5

Here are our Retrodictive Rankings.  See our explanation of these rankings at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/12/07/our-unique-way-of-compiling-our-college-retrodictive-ratings/

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Washington
6 Penn St.
7 Wisconsin
8 USC
9 Oklahoma
10 Florida St.
11 Western Michigan
12 Colorado
13 Stanford
14 LSU
15 Louisville
16 Auburn
17 West Virginia
18 Oklahoma St.
19 Washington St.
20 South Florida
21 Iowa
22 Boise St.
23 Florida
24 Houston
25 Temple
26 Virginia Tech
27 Pittsburgh
28 Nebraska
29 Miami (Fla)
30 Tennessee
31 Texas A&M
32 Utah
33 Western Kentucky
34 North Carolina
35 Tulsa
36 Minnesota
37 BYU
38 Kansas St.
39 Georgia Tech
40 Navy
41 Appalachian St.
42 Toledo
43 San Diego St.
44 Memphis
45 Georgia
46 Arkansas
47 Northwestern
48 Air Force
49 Kentucky
50 Colorado St.
51 Troy
52 Vanderbilt
53 North Carolina St.
54 Indiana
55 Ole Miss
56 TCU
57 Old Dominion
58 Wyoming
59 California
60 New Mexico
61 Mississippi St.
62 Central Florida
63 Louisiana Tech
64 Maryland
65 UCLA
66 South Carolina
67 Baylor
68 Oregon
69 Notre Dame
70 Idaho
71 Boston College
72 Texas
73 Arkansas St.
74 Wake Forest
75 Ohio
76 Arizona St.
77 Oregon St.
78 Eastern Michigan
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas Tech
81 Army
82 SMU
83 Missouri
84 Duke
85 Michigan St.
86 Syracuse
87 Central Michigan
88 UTSA
89 UL-Lafayette
90 Miami (O)
91 Northern Illinois
92 Iowa St.
93 Arizona
94 Southern Miss.
95 Georgia Southern
96 Hawaii
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Bowling Green
104 Purdue
105 East Carolina
106 Virginia
107 San Jose St.
108 Nevada
109 North Texas
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 Rutgers
113 UL-Monroe
114 Kent St.
115 Kansas
116 Georgia St.
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Fresno St.
127 Texas St.
128 Buffalo

Here are the ratings by FBS Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 111.5 110.6 112.3 111.5
South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
Navy 105.2 104.8 105.2 105.1
Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 129.5 123.5 128.7 127.2
Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.7 116.9 118.8 118.1
Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 125.2 123.3 125.1 124.5
Oklahoma St. 116.6 117.9 116.0 116.8
Kansas St. 111.9 113.7 111.9 112.5
West Virginia 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6
TCU 107.4 109.1 106.4 107.6
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Baylor 103.8 104.2 103.8 103.9
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
Penn St. 119.9 119.7 120.0 119.9
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 118.7 116.7 119.1 118.2
Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 110.7 108.8 112.1 110.5
Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.5 98.7 98.2 97.8
UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
Army 91.6 97.1 92.9 93.9
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Independents Averages 98.6 99.5 98.9 99.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
Wyoming 93.5 94.1 94.5 94.0
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 103.8 102.6 105.6 104.0
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 133.0 125.8 132.4 130.4
Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
Colorado 117.1 112.7 117.0 115.6
Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
Florida 112.4 112.9 110.9 112.1
Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 138.7 132.5 138.7 136.6
LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
Arkansas St. 93.1 95.8 94.8 94.6
Troy 91.0 94.8 92.8 92.9
Idaho 85.6 90.4 87.8 87.9
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
UL-Lafayette 84.8 88.6 86.4 86.6
South Alabama 81.8 88.0 82.5 84.1
Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.3 85.8 83.8 84.0

 

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
2 ACC 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big 12 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
6 AAC 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.2
7 Independents 98.6 99.5 98.9 99.0
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
11 Sun Belt 82.3 85.8 83.8 84.0

 

The 2016-2017 College Bowls

All times Eastern Standard
Team Team PiRate Mean Bias Network
Sat Dec-17 New Mexico 2:00 PM ESPN
New Mexico UTSA 11.0 7.0 9.4    
Sat Dec-17 Las Vegas 3:30 PM ABC
San Diego St. Houston -6.2 -6.2 -5.5    
Sat Dec-17 Cure 5:30 PM CBSSN
Central Florida Arkansas St. 6.6 4.9 5.6    
Sat Dec-17 Camellia 5:30 PM ESPN
Toledo Appalachian St. 2.8 2.3 2.1    
Sat Dec-17 New Orleans 9:00 PM ESPN
Southern Miss. UL-Lafayette 2.6 -1.0 1.3    
Mon Dec-19 Miami Beach 2:30 PM ESPN
Tulsa Central Mich. 12.0 11.1 12.1    
Tue Dec-20 Boca Raton 7:00 PM ESPN
Memphis Western Ky. -4.6 -4.9 -6.6    
Wed Dec-21 Poinsettia 9:00 PM ESPN
BYU Wyoming 17.2 12.4 16.2    
Thu Dec-22 Idaho Potato 7:00 PM ESPN
Colorado St. Idaho 9.7 6.5 8.6    
Fri Dec-23 Bahamas 1:00 PM ESPN
Old Dominion Eastern Michigan 1.8 2.8 2.3    
Fri Dec-23 Armed Forces 4:30 PM ESPN
Navy Louisiana Tech 8.7 6.1 7.0    
Fri Dec-23 Dollar General 8:00 PM ESPN
Ohio U Troy 0.4 3.3 0.2    
Sat Dec-24 Hawaii 8:00 PM ESPN
Hawaii Middle Tenn. -3.6 -5.5 -4.3    
Mon Dec-26 St. Petersburg 11:00 AM ESPN
Miami (O) Mississippi St. -19.8 -16.2 -17.2    
Mon Dec-26 Quick Lane 2:30 PM ESPN
Boston College Maryland 3.7 0.1 4.7    
Mon Dec-26 Independence 5:00 PM ESPN2
N. Carolina St. Vanderbilt 1.3 0.9 2.1    
Tue Dec-27 Heart of Dallas 12:00 PM ESPN
Army North Texas 9.4 11.9 10.3    
Tue Dec-27 Military 3:30 PM ESPN
Temple Wake Forest 10.3 11.1 11.0    
Tue Dec-27 Holiday 7:00 PM ESPN
Minnesota Washington St. -7.5 -6.4 -7.3    
Tue Dec-27 Cactus 10:15 PM ESPN
Baylor Boise St. -0.7 -1.5 -1.4  
Wed Dec-28 Pinstripe 2:00 PM ESPN
Pittsburgh Northwestern 9.0 8.4 9.3    
Wed Dec-28 Russell Athletic 5:30 PM ESPN
Miami (Fla.) West Virginia 8.0 3.1 8.3    
Wed Dec-28 Foster Farms 8:30 PM Fox
Indiana Utah -9.2 -3.2 -8.5    
Wed Dec-28 Texas 9:00 PM ESPN
Kansas St. Texas A&M -2.0 1.3 -2.3    
Thu Dec-29 Birmingham 2:00 PM ESPN
South Florida South Carolina 11.7 10.5 12.8    
Thu Dec-29 Belk 5:30 PM ESPN
Virginia Tech Arkansas 7.7 -0.2 8.7    
Thu Dec-29 Alamo 9:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma St. Colorado -0.5 5.2 -1.0    
Fri Dec-30 Liberty 12:00 PM ESPN
TCU Georgia -0.9 1.4 -1.2    
Fri Dec-30 Sun 2:00 PM CBS
North Carolina Stanford 1.3 1.6 1.6    
Fri Dec-30 Music City 3:30 PM ESPN
Nebraska Tennessee -9.3 -9.1 -8.8    
Fri Dec-30 Arizona 5:30 PM Campus Insiders
Air Force South Alabama 15.8 11.2 15.3    
Fri Dec-30 Orange 8:00 PM ESPN
Florida St. Michigan -3.1 -6.9 -3.6    
Sat Dec-31 Citrus 11:00 AM ABC
Louisville LSU -3.0 -2.0 -2.7    
Sat Dec-31 TaxSlayer 11:00 AM ESPN
Georgia Tech Kentucky 6.1 2.2 5.5    
Sat Dec-31 Peach 3:00 PM ESPN
Alabama Washington 7.2 8.2 7.8    
Sat Dec-31 Fiesta 7:00 PM ESPN
Clemson Ohio St. 2.0 -3.6 0.9    
Mon Jan-2 Outback 1:00 PM ABC
Florida Iowa -1.5 1.8 -2.9    
Mon Jan-2 Cotton 1:00 PM ESPN
Western Mich. Wisconsin -5.5 -3.7 -4.2    
Mon Jan-2 Rose 5:00 PM ESPN
Penn St. USC -6.9 -2.2 -5.3    
Mon Jan-2 Sugar 8:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma Auburn 4.7 4.8 4.7    
Mon Jan-9 Championship 8:00 PM ESPN
Fiesta Winner Peach Winner Tampa, FL      

 

Note: Beginning the end of December, our Pirate College Basketball picks will return for the Saturday and Sunday major conferences and top teams.

 

 

 

 

 

September 14, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 15-19, 2016

Our second week of parlay picks performed little better than the first week.  We chose five parlays at better than even money odds, and we only hit on one of them at +131.  It was the Baltimore over Buffalo and Green Bay over Jacksonville parlay that won.

For the season, we have put $700 in imaginary bankroll up for money line parlay investment, and we have won just $131 while losing $600 for a net of $-469.  Ugh, but at least we still have the same amount of real $$$, since this is just for fun.

Because, it is just for fun, we have another $500 in imaginary dough ready to put on the non-existent line this week.  Once again, as we like to always play parlays with better than even money odds, all five picks will pay back more than the $100 investment if they win.

Before we get to this week’s picks, we have been asked by a handful of you where we get our odds.  This is a  multiple part response.  First, we do not use just one sports book to find our odds.  We shop for the best odds we can get on each parlay, so one parlay might be with one book, while another parlay might be with another one.  All of our fake selections come from easily playable online sports books, plus Las Vegas.  It appears that some of you from Vegas read our parlay selections every week, and we can only imagine how peeved you must be, even though we begged many times for readers here not to use these selections.

As for the actual odds, you can figure these out yourselves with an easy but time-consuming process, but why do this, when you can find parlay calculators online?

For those math geeks like us that must know how to do it, here goes:

Let’s look at a 3-team parlay of favorites at -150, -180, and -200.  First we find the decimal divider for figuring the multiplier.  So, we take each number (150, 180, and 200).  You divide your total payout of winning by the amount risked.  We are always risking $100 on every parlay, so this becomes easier.  at -150, we win 100 for every 150 or 1 for every .667.  The decimal multiplier would then be the reward (.667) + the risk (1), or 1.667

For -180, we win 100 for every 180 invested or one for every .556.  The decimal multiplier would then be (.556 + 1) 1.556

For -200, we win 100 for every 200 invested or one for every .5.  The decimal multiplier would then be (.5 + 1) 1.5

Now, multiply the three decimal multipliers (1.667, 1.556, and 1.5).  The answer to this is 3.89.

Now, we subtract 1 for the risk invested and we get 2.89.  If we wager $100 on this parlay, and it wins, we will be paid $289.

 

Let’s say you are feeling strong about two underdogs winning outright.  The Money Lines are listed at +120 and +150.  This is easier to calculate.  If you play at +120 you are putting up 100 to win 120, and the multiplier decimal is 2.2 (1+1.2).  The +150 multiplier decimal is 2.5 (1+1.5), and when you multiply 2.2 by 2.5, you get 5.5.  Subtract the 1 for the risk, and you get 4.5.  For every $100 you wager on this parlay, you would win $450 if the two underdogs won outright.

Once again, you can find a parlay calculator online that will do this for you.

Here are our parlays for this week

Parlay #1: +142

Rutgers over New Mexico

Texas over California

Nevada over Buffalo

We are playing some angles here.  New Mexico lost to rival New Mexico State and now must go on the road to a so-so Big Ten team that lost at a ranked Washington team and won a cakewalk game last week.

We feel that Texas can play smash mouth football against Cal and wear their weak defense down.  Even though the game is in Berkeley, Texas has more muscle and speed than San Diego State who beat the Golden Bears last week.

Buffalo has to travel over 2,00o miles to Reno after beginning the season with a loss to an FCS opponent.  Nevada fared okay at Notre Dame last week, and the Wolfpack will have a bit of added confidence.  Going up against a slower offense and defense will do for the Nevada what two bats being swung does for a batter in the on-deck circle.

 

Parlay #2 +130

Virginia Tech over Boston College

Western Kentucky over Miami (O)

Oklahoma St. over Pittsburgh

Boston College really struggles to score points.  The Eagles’ defense is really good, but it will be on the field too much in Blacksburg.  The Hokies may be a little hungover this week following the big game, but their defense is almost as good as BC’s, and almost as good facing BC’s offense and playing on home turf is enough for VT to win.

Western Kentucky did a better job against Alabama at Bryant Denny Stadium than USC did against the Tide at AT&T Stadium.  Miami of Ohio is still a couple years of improvement away before the Red Hawks can think there is a chance to go to a bowl.  The Hilltoppers should win this game by at least 17 points.

I would not want to be the Alabama or Ohio State and have to play Oklahoma State in Stillwater this week.  The players are mad as hatters.  The coach is madder.  Add the obvious letdown by the Panthers after beating Penn State at home, and we would not be surprised if OSU wins by 20 or more points.

 

Parlay #3 +147

Utah St. over Arkansas St.

Central Michigan over UNLV

Texas Tech over Louisiana Tech

Alabama over Ole Miss

Arkansas State appears to be weaker than thought in the preseason, when the Sun Belt media gurus thought they would contend with Appy State for the conference crown.  They are 0-2, but it is a sneaky 0-2.  Losses to Auburn and Toledo doesn’t make ASU bad.  Playing at Utah St. gives the Aggies a greater than normal home field advantage.  USU never challenged USC last week, so this is a chance for the Aggies to rebound and bounce back.

Central Michigan must now be considered a contender for the NY6 Bowl bid.  A road win over a top 20 team, even if mistakes were made by the referees, is worth more than Houston’s win at hometown NRG Stadium over Oklahoma.  The Chippewas know they must win every week, and they have a tough conference schedule ahead with Western Michigan, Toledo, and Northern Illinois, plus the must-win game at Virginia next week.  CMU might be looking ahead to the Cavaliers next week, and that worries us a bit, because UNLV is not chopped liver like they have been in recent seasons.  The Rebels could end CMU’s quest for the Fiesta.  Still, we are going with CMU to win, maybe just by not as comfortable a margin as we would hope.

How many points will be scored in Lubbock this week?  How about 90 or more?  Texas Tech and Arizona State played to a basketball score last week, and the Red Raiders return home to face a somewhat weaker opponent.  It might be a nervous Nellie game, but we believe TTU wins 52-38.

Would you like to have a chance to beat Alabama three years in a row when the Tide was undefeated and ranked in the top 5?  Alabama has been ranked #2 and #3 the last two years when Ole Miss defeated the Tide.  The Tide will turn this week, and Alabama will get two years worth of revenge.  Nick Saban and staff has parsed every play of Florida State’e second half against the Rebels, and it would shock us less if ‘Bama wins by 35 or more than Ole Miss winning a third time in a row.

 

Parlay #4 +132

Penn St. over Temple

Marshall over Akron

Stanford over USC

Utah over San Jose St.

Must we say what happens if Temple goes into Happy Valley and tops Penn State after the Nittany Lions lost to Pitt last week?  The seat of James Franklin would become hot enough to make fried rice.  Temple is weaker than last year, but apparently so is Penn State, or at best they are on par with last year.  We believe the game could be ugly, but the big guys have to win, and they will.

Marshall looked fantastic as the Thundering Herd was the only FBS team to debut their season last week.  Akron had a tough week at Wisconsin, and the Badgers’ muscle guys probably left the Zips bumped and bruised.  We believe they won’t feel better after visiting Doc Holliday, as the Herd runs over the Zips.

Stanford had an extra week to prepare for USC, and teams tend to improve the most between game one and game two.  The Cardinal offense should put up about 25-30 points while holding the Trojans under 20.

Utah visits San Jose a little later in the evening than the Stanford game up the road, but you cannot go to both games and see them in full.  You might be able to see half of each one if you speed on down 280 or the Central Expressway.  The Spartans are one of those teams you worry about, but Utah is a solid team that plays well every week–never spectacular, but much like Wisconsin.  We’ll take the Utes.

 

Parlay #5 +120

Detroit Lions over Tennessee Titans

New England Patriots over Miami Dolphin

Carolina over San Francisco

Until Tennessee actually wins a game this year, we will select their opponents most weeks.  The Titans look to us to be even weaker than Cleveland without RG3.  Truth be told, if Josh McCown has anything left in his old legs, Cleveland may be a tad better.  The Titans have great difficulty spreading the field vertically with a bunch of distance horses and no speed horses.  Marcus Mariota is not good enough to make average receivers look like Peyton Manning made Dallas Clark.  The running game would be terrific if the passing game was even average, and the defense does not scare many people.  Matthew Stafford and company should have a fun Sunday.

New England is at home facing Miami.  Jimmy Garappolo wasn’t Tom Brady the Second, but he was at least as good as Matt Cassel 2008.  Miami’s defense may be considerably better than last year’s version, but can their offense keep up with the Patriots’ offense?  We say no way.

Carolina has everything in their favor for the last game in this parlay.  The Panthers played Thursday night, while the 49ers played four days later in a rivalry game that had been waiting for 22 years.  San Francisco must travel from one coast to another across three time zones, and they will face hot and humid conditions on Sunday with a chance of storms.  Unless Cam Newton suffers some ill effects from the illegal hits in the opener, we believe Carolina wins by double digits.

 

***** Warning *****

Remember, do not use these just for fun picks as real investment advice.  We are out nothing for the unsatisfactory results so far.  Don’t be a fool who is soon parted from his/her money.

Past results do not necessarily reflect future success.  Even if we finished 2015 with a 40% ROI, there is no legitimate reason to expect we will ever get on the plus side of 0 this year.

August 24, 2016

College Football Preview–August 26, 2016

The College Football season kicks off a week earlier than normal this year thanks to the California Golden Bears playing the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.  The chosen venue is the former site of the 2000 Summer Olympic Games, but in our opinion, this game would have been better placed in the Sydney Cricket Grounds, where the current Australian Football League Sydney Swans play.  48,000 seats are more than enough for these two teams, and ANZ Stadium holds around 80K.  Past games in Australia have drawn fewer than 20,000 fans.

 

Here are the initial PiRate Retrodictive Rankings For 2016.  Retrodictive refers to how teams have done so far to date, trying to rate the teams in order of who they have beaten and who has beaten them; they are not able to be used to predict the future, like our regular Predictive Ratings, which follow below.  Obviously, with no games played to date, these rankings are not yet Retrodictive.  Rather than re-list last year’s final Retrodictive Rankings, we have applied the updates to the 128 teams’ regular ratings to last year’s final rankings.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Oklahoma
2 LSU
3 Florida St.
4 Alabama
5 Tennessee
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Michigan
9 USC
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Ole Miss
12 Stanford
13 Louisville
14 Washington
15 TCU
16 Oregon
17 Georgia
18 Notre Dame
19 North Carolina
20 Florida
21 Arkansas
22 Auburn
23 Pittsburgh
24 Iowa
25 Miami (Fla)
26 UCLA
27 Texas
28 Texas A&M
29 Michigan St.
30 Mississippi St.
31 Washington St.
32 Wisconsin
33 Baylor
34 West Virginia
35 Nebraska
36 Utah
37 Penn St.
38 Virginia Tech
39 Arizona St.
40 Houston
41 BYU
42 North Carolina St.
43 Arizona
44 Georgia Tech
45 Boise St.
46 Northwestern
47 South Florida
48 Kansas St.
49 San Diego St.
50 Boston College
51 Texas Tech
52 Cincinnati
53 Minnesota
54 Virginia
55 Missouri
56 Indiana
57 Western Michigan
58 Temple
59 Vanderbilt
60 Syracuse
61 Kentucky
62 Air Force
63 Navy
64 California
65 Colorado
66 Toledo
67 Wake Forest
68 South Carolina
69 Appalachian St.
70 Illinois
71 Iowa St.
72 Central Michigan
73 Memphis
74 Western Kentucky
75 Duke
76 Northern Illinois
77 Connecticut
78 Georgia Southern
79 Purdue
80 Maryland
81 Utah St.
82 Tulsa
83 Rutgers
84 Marshall
85 Bowling Green
86 Oregon St.
87 Arkansas St.
88 MTSU
89 Nevada
90 Southern Miss.
91 Louisiana Tech
92 East Carolina
93 Ohio
94 San Jose St.
95 SMU
96 Colorado St.
97 New Mexico
98 Army
99 Rice
100 Akron
101 Kansas
102 UNLV
103 Central Florida
104 Troy
105 Florida Atlantic
106 Florida Int’l.
107 Buffalo
108 Fresno St.
109 Ball St.
110 Old Dominion
111 Georgia St.
112 Tulane
113 Kent St.
114 UL-Lafayette
115 Wyoming
116 Miami (O)
117 Idaho
118 South Alabama
119 Massachusetts
120 UTEP
121 Hawaii
122 UTSA
123 Eastern Michigan
124 Charlotte
125 New Mexico St.
126 North Texas
127 UL-Monroe
128 Texas St.

Here are the regular PiRate Ratings for the opening week of the season.  In some cases, these ratings differ slightly from the ratings given during the conference previews of the last 10 days, the reason being that players have quit, been injured, or transferred since the data was first compiled.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Tennessee 127.7 121.8 128.4 126.0
2 LSU 127.6 121.1 126.8 125.2
3 Oklahoma 125.6 122.1 125.6 124.4
4 Alabama 126.5 119.0 125.0 123.5
5 Clemson 126.8 116.4 125.7 123.0
6 Florida St. 122.9 115.4 121.9 120.1
7 Michigan 120.0 118.0 120.4 119.5
8 Mississippi St. 120.1 115.9 119.7 118.6
9 Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
10 Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.8 117.5 117.9
11 USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
12 Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
13 Louisville 118.6 111.8 118.0 116.1
14 Texas 114.4 118.0 114.4 115.6
15 Pittsburgh 117.1 111.7 116.4 115.1
16 North Carolina 117.4 109.2 117.1 114.6
17 Auburn 114.5 113.8 113.9 114.1
18 TCU 113.3 115.6 113.2 114.0
19 Notre Dame 116.2 111.0 114.8 114.0
20 Florida 113.5 116.8 111.1 113.8
21 Arkansas 116.4 110.3 114.2 113.7
22 Miami 116.6 108.0 115.9 113.5
23 Ohio St. 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.4
24 Iowa 114.6 110.9 114.2 113.2
25 Georgia 112.5 114.0 112.1 112.9
26 Michigan St. 113.1 112.4 111.1 112.2
27 Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
28 Texas A&M 112.1 111.4 112.0 111.8
29 Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
30 Ole Miss 113.6 107.4 112.1 111.0
31 Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
32 UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
33 Houston 110.1 108.3 111.9 110.1
34 Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
35 Penn St. 109.5 111.3 108.0 109.6
36 Nebraska 110.4 105.9 110.5 108.9
37 Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
38 Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
39 Wisconsin 109.1 105.9 109.5 108.2
40 BYU 110.6 102.9 110.3 107.9
41 South Florida 108.3 105.7 109.5 107.8
42 Northwestern 109.7 103.5 108.1 107.1
43 North Carolina St. 108.0 104.7 107.6 106.8
44 Georgia Tech 108.1 104.2 107.4 106.6
45 West Virginia 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.2
46 Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
47 Boise St. 104.4 105.7 106.3 105.5
48 Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
49 San Diego St. 104.9 102.2 108.2 105.1
50 Boston College 105.1 103.6 104.9 104.5
51 Kansas St. 103.1 107.5 102.5 104.4
52 Vanderbilt 106.9 100.7 105.1 104.3
53 Minnesota 104.8 102.8 104.7 104.1
54 Texas Tech 104.9 102.3 102.7 103.3
55 Virginia 104.4 101.2 103.8 103.1
56 Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
57 Indiana 101.5 106.0 100.9 102.8
58 Missouri 103.0 101.8 102.5 102.5
59 Western Michigan 102.0 100.9 103.9 102.3
60 Cincinnati 101.5 102.7 102.5 102.3
61 Temple 102.2 101.2 103.1 102.2
62 Maryland 100.9 104.2 98.1 101.1
63 Wake Forest 102.3 99.2 101.5 101.0
64 Tulsa 99.7 102.2 100.4 100.8
65 Kentucky 100.4 102.3 99.2 100.6
66 Toledo 101.0 98.9 101.8 100.6
67 Memphis 102.7 97.8 100.8 100.5
68 Central Michigan 98.9 101.9 99.9 100.2
69 Air Force 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1
70 California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
71 Duke 99.4 100.7 98.0 99.4
72 Iowa St. 99.8 99.2 98.7 99.2
73 Illinois 100.6 97.2 99.8 99.2
74 Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
75 South Carolina 99.0 99.3 98.1 98.8
76 Northern Illinois 97.3 98.9 98.4 98.2
77 Purdue 99.4 96.6 98.3 98.1
78 Connecticut 98.3 96.1 98.6 97.7
79 Western Kentucky 99.3 93.3 100.0 97.5
80 Rutgers 99.0 96.2 97.3 97.5
81 Bowling Green 96.7 94.7 97.3 96.2
82 Appalachian St. 95.5 95.7 97.1 96.1
83 New Mexico 94.3 97.6 95.6 95.9
84 Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
85 Marshall 92.5 96.9 94.3 94.6
86 Utah St. 93.2 97.1 93.0 94.4
87 Nevada 92.3 95.6 93.6 93.9
88 Arkansas St. 91.9 94.2 94.4 93.5
89 Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
90 SMU 93.7 92.1 93.2 93.0
91 Southern Mississippi 92.7 92.1 93.8 92.9
92 East Carolina 91.6 94.6 91.7 92.6
93 Middle Tennessee 91.2 93.8 92.3 92.4
94 Ohio 88.7 98.2 90.1 92.4
95 San Jose St. 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
96 UNLV 89.0 93.6 89.1 90.6
97 Kansas 88.3 96.1 85.9 90.1
98 Colorado St. 88.2 90.6 89.0 89.3
99 Army 84.2 93.2 86.6 88.0
100 Rice 84.7 94.1 85.1 88.0
101 Akron 84.8 92.6 86.5 88.0
102 Old Dominion 85.8 89.2 86.4 87.1
103 Central Florida 85.9 88.6 85.9 86.8
104 Florida Atlantic 84.9 88.6 86.8 86.8
105 Louisiana Tech 85.4 88.6 86.0 86.7
106 Troy 83.6 90.2 85.2 86.4
107 Florida International 82.4 89.6 84.3 85.4
108 Buffalo 80.8 90.1 82.2 84.4
109 Ball St. 83.6 85.6 83.8 84.3
110 Georgia St. 81.7 87.1 83.9 84.2
111 Fresno St. 82.1 87.1 81.9 83.7
112 Tulane 82.2 86.1 82.0 83.4
113 Miami (O) 82.2 84.0 82.9 83.0
114 Kent St. 82.3 84.5 82.2 83.0
115 Wyoming 82.5 82.5 82.6 82.6
116 UTSA 78.4 87.1 80.9 82.2
117 Idaho 78.1 85.2 79.7 81.0
118 UL-Lafayette 76.3 86.8 78.7 80.6
119 Eastern Michigan 78.1 83.6 79.5 80.4
120 South Alabama 75.3 85.2 76.2 78.9
121 Massachusetts 75.0 84.5 76.2 78.6
122 UTEP 74.5 79.5 75.8 76.6
123 Hawaii 77.0 76.5 75.7 76.4
124 Charlotte 73.0 81.1 74.6 76.2
125 New Mexico St. 73.7 76.5 74.9 75.0
126 North Texas 74.0 76.6 73.7 74.8
127 UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8
128 Texas St. 68.8 69.5 69.5 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 108.3 105.7 109.5 107.8
Cincinnati 101.5 102.7 102.5 102.3
Temple 102.2 101.2 103.1 102.2
Connecticut 98.3 96.1 98.6 97.7
East Carolina 91.6 94.6 91.7 92.6
Central Florida 85.9 88.6 85.9 86.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.1 108.3 111.9 110.1
Tulsa 99.7 102.2 100.4 100.8
Memphis 102.7 97.8 100.8 100.5
Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
SMU 93.7 92.1 93.2 93.0
Tulane 82.2 86.1 82.0 83.4
         
AAC Averages 98.0 97.9 98.2 98.0
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 126.8 116.4 125.7 123.0
Florida St. 122.9 115.4 121.9 120.1
Louisville 118.6 111.8 118.0 116.1
North Carolina St. 108.0 104.7 107.6 106.8
Boston College 105.1 103.6 104.9 104.5
Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
Wake Forest 102.3 99.2 101.5 101.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Pittsburgh 117.1 111.7 116.4 115.1
North Carolina 117.4 109.2 117.1 114.6
Miami 116.6 108.0 115.9 113.5
Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
Georgia Tech 108.1 104.2 107.4 106.6
Virginia 104.4 101.2 103.8 103.1
Duke 99.4 100.7 98.0 99.4
         
ACC Averages 111.6 107.0 110.9 109.9
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 125.6 122.1 125.6 124.4
Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.8 117.5 117.9
Texas 114.4 118.0 114.4 115.6
TCU 113.3 115.6 113.2 114.0
Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
West Virginia 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.2
Kansas St. 103.1 107.5 102.5 104.4
Texas Tech 104.9 102.3 102.7 103.3
Iowa St. 99.8 99.2 98.7 99.2
Kansas 88.3 96.1 85.9 90.1
         
Big 12 Averages 108.3 109.6 107.7 108.5
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 120.0 118.0 120.4 119.5
Ohio St. 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.4
Michigan St. 113.1 112.4 111.1 112.2
Penn St. 109.5 111.3 108.0 109.6
Indiana 101.5 106.0 100.9 102.8
Maryland 100.9 104.2 98.1 101.1
Rutgers 99.0 96.2 97.3 97.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 114.6 110.9 114.2 113.2
Nebraska 110.4 105.9 110.5 108.9
Wisconsin 109.1 105.9 109.5 108.2
Northwestern 109.7 103.5 108.1 107.1
Minnesota 104.8 102.8 104.7 104.1
Illinois 100.6 97.2 99.8 99.2
Purdue 99.4 96.6 98.3 98.1
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.0 106.7 106.8
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 99.3 93.3 100.0 97.5
Marshall 92.5 96.9 94.3 94.6
Middle Tennessee 91.2 93.8 92.3 92.4
Old Dominion 85.8 89.2 86.4 87.1
Florida Atlantic 84.9 88.6 86.8 86.8
Florida International 82.4 89.6 84.3 85.4
Charlotte 73.0 81.1 74.6 76.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 92.7 92.1 93.8 92.9
Rice 84.7 94.1 85.1 88.0
Louisiana Tech 85.4 88.6 86.0 86.7
UTSA 78.4 87.1 80.9 82.2
UTEP 74.5 79.5 75.8 76.6
North Texas 74.0 76.6 73.7 74.8
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 88.5 85.7 86.2
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 116.2 111.0 114.8 114.0
BYU 110.6 102.9 110.3 107.9
Army 84.2 93.2 86.6 88.0
Massachusetts 75.0 84.5 76.2 78.6
         
Independents Averages 96.5 97.9 97.0 97.1
 
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 96.7 94.7 97.3 96.2
Ohio 88.7 98.2 90.1 92.4
Akron 84.8 92.6 86.5 88.0
Buffalo 80.8 90.1 82.2 84.4
Miami (O) 82.2 84.0 82.9 83.0
Kent St. 82.3 84.5 82.2 83.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.0 100.9 103.9 102.3
Toledo 101.0 98.9 101.8 100.6
Central Michigan 98.9 101.9 99.9 100.2
Northern Illinois 97.3 98.9 98.4 98.2
Ball St. 83.6 85.6 83.8 84.3
Eastern Michigan 78.1 83.6 79.5 80.4
         
MAC Averages 89.7 92.8 90.7 91.1
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.4 105.7 106.3 105.5
Air Force 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1
New Mexico 94.3 97.6 95.6 95.9
Utah St. 93.2 97.1 93.0 94.4
Colorado St. 88.2 90.6 89.0 89.3
Wyoming 82.5 82.5 82.6 82.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 104.9 102.2 108.2 105.1
Nevada 92.3 95.6 93.6 93.9
San Jose St. 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
UNLV 89.0 93.6 89.1 90.6
Fresno St. 82.1 87.1 81.9 83.7
Hawaii 77.0 76.5 75.7 76.4
         
MWC Averages 91.6 93.4 92.3 92.4
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 127.7 121.8 128.4 126.0
Florida 113.5 116.8 111.1 113.8
Georgia 112.5 114.0 112.1 112.9
Vanderbilt 106.9 100.7 105.1 104.3
Missouri 103.0 101.8 102.5 102.5
Kentucky 100.4 102.3 99.2 100.6
South Carolina 99.0 99.3 98.1 98.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
LSU 127.6 121.1 126.8 125.2
Alabama 126.5 119.0 125.0 123.5
Mississippi St. 120.1 115.9 119.7 118.6
Auburn 114.5 113.8 113.9 114.1
Arkansas 116.4 110.3 114.2 113.7
Texas A&M 112.1 111.4 112.0 111.8
Ole Miss 113.6 107.4 112.1 111.0
         
SEC Averages 113.9 111.1 112.9 112.6
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 95.5 95.7 97.1 96.1
Arkansas St. 91.9 94.2 94.4 93.5
Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
Troy 83.6 90.2 85.2 86.4
Georgia St. 81.7 87.1 83.9 84.2
Idaho 78.1 85.2 79.7 81.0
UL-Lafayette 76.3 86.8 78.7 80.6
South Alabama 75.3 85.2 76.2 78.9
New Mexico St. 73.7 76.5 74.9 75.0
UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8
Texas St. 68.8 69.5 69.5 69.3
         
Sun Belt Averages 80.5 85.1 82.1 82.6

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Southeastern 113.9 111.1 112.9 112.6
2 Atlantic Coast 111.6 107.0 110.9 109.9
3 Pac-12 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1
4 Big 12 108.3 109.6 107.7 108.5
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.1 106.7 106.8
6 American 98.0 97.9 98.2 98.0
7 Independents 96.5 97.9 97.0 97.1
8 Mountain West 91.6 93.4 92.3 92.4
9 Mid-American 89.7 92.9 90.7 91.1
10 Conference USA 84.5 88.5 85.7 86.3
11 Sunbelt 80.5 85.1 82.1 82.6

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For August 26, 2016

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Hawaii California -27.6 -16.8 -25.2

Bowl Projections

We erred when issuing bowl projections in our conference previews, completely forgetting that the current Rose Bowl tie-in calls for the Pac-12 and Big Ten to supply the highest rated teams not in the playoffs, rather than using the old BCS formula rules.

 

Therefore, we have moved Ohio State into the Rose Bowl in lieu of Alabama, which in turn caused us to rearrange several other bowls once Alabama was moved to an SEC only bowl.

 

We are sorry for the error.  Here are the updated Bowl Projections.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. Boise St.
Cure AAC SBC [Army] vs. Troy
Camellia MAC SBC North. Illinois vs. Ga. Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC W. Kentucky vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC Tulsa vs. West. Michigan
Boca Raton AAC CUSA [Cent. Michigan] vs. Southern Miss.
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Bowling Green vs. UNLV
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Memphis vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. [Arizona]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Appalachian St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Marshall vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Houston vs. [Colorado]
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Boston College vs. Wisconsin
Independence SEC ACC/ND [UL-Lafayette] vs. Georgia Tech
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Indiana vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC N. Carolina St. vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Maryland] vs. Utah
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Virginia Tech vs. Northwestern
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Louisville vs. TCU
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Washington St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Texas A&M
Belk ACC/ND SEC Miami (Fla) vs. Florida
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Ole Miss
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. UCLA
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Utah St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Auburn
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Florida St. vs. Notre Dame
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Iowa vs. Alabama
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC North Carolina vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Tennessee vs. Stanford
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Michigan vs. Oklahoma
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Georgia
Cotton At-Large At-Large Clemson vs. South Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Washington vs. Ohio St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas vs. LSU
Nat’l Championship Semifinal Winners Tennessee vs. Michigan

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections because the contracted conference will not have a bowl eligible team able to fill the slot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 12, 2016

PiRate Ratings Final College Football For 2015-16 Season

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , — piratings @ 7:35 pm

Congratulations to the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the 2015-16 National Championship.

Final PiRate College Ratings For 2015-16

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Ohio St.
4 Stanford
5 Oklahoma
6 Michigan St.
7 Ole Miss
8 TCU
9 Michigan
10 Houston
11 Notre Dame
12 LSU
13 Iowa
14 Baylor
15 Tennessee
16 Florida St.
17 Utah
18 Wisconsin
19 North Carolina
20 Mississippi St.
21 Navy
22 Arkansas
23 Georgia
24 Oregon
25 Oklahoma St.
26 Florida
27 Western Kentucky
28 Toledo
29 USC
30 West Virginia
31 Northwestern
32 California
33 Washington
34 UCLA
35 Texas A&M
36 Washington St.
37 Auburn
38 Memphis
39 BYU
40 San Diego St.
41 Temple
42 Louisville
43 Boise St.
44 Bowling Green
45 Pittsburgh
46 Appalachian St.
47 Miami (Fla.)
48 Western Michigan
49 South Florida
50 Nebraska
51 Penn St.
52 Texas Tech
53 Arizona St.
54 Virginia Tech
55 Georgia Southern
56 Marshall
57 Duke
58 Minnesota
59 North Carolina St.
60 Arizona
61 Louisiana Tech
62 Southern Miss.
63 Kansas St.
64 Texas
65 Air Force
66 Cincinnati
67 Indiana
68 Arkansas St.
69 Illinois
70 Ohio
71 Northern Illinois
72 Missouri
73 Georgia Tech
74 Akron
75 Central Michigan
76 Utah St.
77 East Carolina
78 Virginia
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Connecticut
81 South Carolina
82 Vanderbilt
83 Iowa St.
84 Kentucky
85 Maryland
86 Tulsa
87 Syracuse
88 Colorado St.
89 San Jose St.
90 New Mexico
91 Colorado
92 Nevada
93 Rutgers
94 Boston College
95 Wake Forest
96 Georgia St.
97 Buffalo
98 Oregon St.
99 Purdue
100 South Alabama
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Ball St.
104 Florida Atlantic
105 Rice
106 SMU
107 Idaho
108 Old Dominion
109 Massachusetts
110 UNLV
111 UTEP
112 Louisiana-Lafayette
113 Fresno St.
114 Tulane
115 Kent St.
116 Miami (O)
117 Texas St.
118 UTSA
119 Kansas
120 New Mexico St.
121 Hawaii
122 Wyoming
123 Louisiana-Monroe
124 Army
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michgan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.6 131.3 133.8 132.9
2 Ohio St. 129.7 125.6 130.9 128.7
3 Oklahoma 128.1 124.5 128.4 127.0
4 Stanford 126.3 124.1 127.2 125.9
5 Ole Miss 126.4 122.2 126.2 124.9
6 Clemson 124.2 124.7 124.9 124.6
7 Baylor 123.7 120.1 123.9 122.6
8 Tennessee 122.4 118.9 122.9 121.4
9 TCU 122.9 115.5 123.6 120.7
10 LSU 121.4 117.9 121.4 120.2
11 North Carolina 120.3 120.1 119.5 120.0
12 Arkansas 121.6 116.5 121.4 119.8
13 Notre Dame 120.5 117.9 119.8 119.4
14 Michigan 118.6 116.0 118.5 117.7
15 Mississippi St. 118.2 115.2 118.6 117.3
16 Oregon 118.8 113.4 119.2 117.1
17 USC 118.5 114.0 117.1 116.5
18 UCLA 118.9 113.3 116.9 116.4
19 Michigan St. 117.3 114.6 116.9 116.3
20 Florida St. 115.4 116.7 115.0 115.7
21 Utah 118.0 112.5 116.3 115.6
22 Washington 115.7 112.6 115.5 114.6
23 Houston 111.6 116.9 114.1 114.2
24 Georgia 115.9 111.2 114.9 114.0
25 Auburn 114.8 112.1 114.0 113.6
26 California 115.2 110.8 114.8 113.6
27 Texas A&M 115.1 111.7 112.7 113.2
28 West Virginia 115.2 109.5 114.6 113.1
29 Wisconsin 112.8 112.2 112.4 112.5
30 Arizona St. 114.1 109.2 113.7 112.3
31 Oklahoma St. 113.4 109.9 112.4 111.9
32 Western Kentucky 109.7 111.1 111.8 110.9
33 Florida 111.7 108.4 111.2 110.4
34 Iowa 109.9 110.9 110.2 110.3
35 San Diego St. 108.2 112.5 109.8 110.2
36 Louisville 109.3 110.7 109.6 109.9
37 Boise St. 110.1 108.2 110.6 109.6
38 Nebraska 110.1 108.4 109.8 109.4
39 Virginia Tech 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
40 BYU 108.2 108.1 109.3 108.5
41 Navy 106.4 110.3 107.8 108.2
42 Washington St. 108.7 105.7 109.8 108.1
43 Bowling Green 105.7 110.2 108.2 108.0
44 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
45 North Carolina St. 107.7 108.3 105.8 107.3
46 Memphis 106.5 107.1 106.3 106.6
47 Temple 105.3 107.9 106.3 106.5
48 Toledo 105.3 107.0 107.0 106.4
49 Pittsburgh 106.0 106.7 106.0 106.2
50 Miami 105.9 106.1 106.7 106.2
51 Texas 107.5 103.4 107.3 106.1
52 South Carolina 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
53 Arizona 107.7 102.5 106.4 105.5
54 Missouri 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
55 Western Michigan 103.1 104.5 105.0 104.2
56 Minnesota 104.9 103.6 103.9 104.1
57 Northwestern 104.1 103.9 103.9 104.0
58 South Florida 101.9 107.1 102.8 103.9
59 Texas Tech 106.5 98.9 106.3 103.9
60 Penn St. 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
61 Colorado 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
62 Duke 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
63 Illinois 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
64 Kansas St. 105.7 97.4 105.1 102.7
65 Virginia 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
66 Georgia Southern 100.0 103.1 102.5 101.9
67 Indiana 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
68 Boston College 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
69 Cincinnati 99.5 101.2 100.4 100.4
70 Louisiana Tech 99.5 100.2 100.9 100.2
71 Kentucky 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
72 Southern Mississippi 99.0 100.9 99.9 99.9
73 Air Force 98.5 101.0 98.4 99.3
74 Iowa St. 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
75 Vanderbilt 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
76 Marshall 97.9 98.7 97.7 98.1
77 Appalachian St. 96.1 99.2 97.4 97.6
78 Wake Forest 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
79 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
80 Utah St. 96.4 97.1 94.8 96.1
81 Syracuse 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
82 Middle Tennessee 96.1 95.5 95.7 95.8
83 Arkansas St. 94.0 95.4 95.7 95.0
84 Northern Illinois 93.2 96.7 93.5 94.5
85 Purdue 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
86 Maryland 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
87 San Jose St. 92.6 94.8 93.1 93.5
88 Connecticut 91.0 95.3 92.2 92.8
89 Tulsa 91.0 95.0 92.4 92.8
90 New Mexico 92.5 93.3 92.2 92.7
91 Central Michigan 90.5 94.2 92.0 92.2
92 Colorado St. 92.2 92.9 91.3 92.1
93 Rutgers 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
94 Nevada 90.3 94.0 91.0 91.8
95 Ohio 89.1 93.5 91.4 91.3
96 Akron 87.3 93.6 89.6 90.2
97 Oregon St. 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
98 Georgia St. 85.8 87.3 86.7 86.6
99 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
100 Troy 84.2 85.5 84.8 84.8
101 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
102 SMU 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
103 Massachusetts 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
104 Buffalo 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
105 Tulane 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
106 UNLV 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
107 Army 79.1 86.6 80.4 82.0
108 Fresno St. 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
109 Wyoming 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
110 Rice 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
111 Ball St. 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
112 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
113 Old Dominion 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
114 Kent St. 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
115 Hawaii 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
116 UT-San Antonio 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
117 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
118 UL-Lafayette 76.6 79.1 76.3 77.3
119 South Alabama 75.0 79.8 75.9 76.9
120 Idaho 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
121 Central Florida 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
122 Texas St. 73.2 75.6 72.8 73.9
123 Eastern Michigan 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
124 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
125 New Mexico St. 72.6 73.8 72.0 72.8
126 Kansas 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
127 UL-Monroe 71.4 71.4 71.7 71.5
128 Charlotte 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9

 

PiRate Ratings

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 7-1 10-4 105.3 107.9 106.3 106.5
South Florida 6-2 8-5 101.9 107.1 102.8 103.9
Cincinnati 4-4 7-6 99.5 101.2 100.4 100.4
East Carolina 3-5 5-7 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
Connecticut 4-4 6-7 91.0 95.3 92.2 92.8
Central Florida 0-8 0-12 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 7-1 13-1 111.6 116.9 114.1 114.2
Navy 7-1 11-2 106.4 110.3 107.8 108.2
Memphis 5-3 9-4 106.5 107.1 106.3 106.6
Tulsa 3-5 6-7 91.0 95.0 92.4 92.8
SMU 1-7 2-10 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
Tulane 1-7 3-9 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
             
AAC Averages     95.7 99.1 96.4 97.0

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 8-0 14-1 124.2 124.7 124.9 124.6
Florida St. 6-2 10-3 115.4 116.7 115.0 115.7
Louisville 5-3 8-5 109.3 110.7 109.6 109.9
North Carolina St. 3-5 7-6 107.7 108.3 105.8 107.3
Boston College 0-8 3-9 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 8-0 11-3 120.3 120.1 119.5 120.0
Virginia Tech 4-4 7-6 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
Georgia Tech 1-7 3-9 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
Pittsburgh 6-2 8-5 106.0 106.7 106.0 106.2
Miami 5-3 8-5 105.9 106.1 106.7 106.2
Duke 4-4 8-5 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
Virginia 3-5 4-8 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.1 107.2 107.6

 

Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-2 128.1 124.5 128.4 127.0
Baylor 6-3 10-3 123.7 120.1 123.9 122.6
TCU 7-2 11-2 122.9 115.5 123.6 120.7
West Virginia 4-5 8-5 115.2 109.5 114.6 113.1
Oklahoma St. 7-2 10-3 113.4 109.9 112.4 111.9
Texas 4-5 5-7 107.5 103.4 107.3 106.1
Texas Tech 4-5 7-6 106.5 98.9 106.3 103.9
Kansas St. 3-6 6-7 105.7 97.4 105.1 102.7
Iowa St. 2-7 3-9 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
Kansas 0-9 0-12 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
             
Big 12 Averages     109.9 104.4 109.5 107.9

 

Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 12-1 129.7 125.6 130.9 128.7
Michigan 6-2 10-3 118.6 116.0 118.5 117.7
Michigan St. 7-1 12-2 117.3 114.6 116.9 116.3
Penn St. 4-4 7-6 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
Indiana 2-6 6-7 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
Maryland 1-7 3-9 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
Rutgers 1-7 4-8 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 6-2 10-3 112.8 112.2 112.4 112.5
Iowa 8-0 12-2 109.9 110.9 110.2 110.3
Nebraska 3-5 6-7 110.1 108.4 109.8 109.4
Minnesota 2-6 6-7 104.9 103.6 103.9 104.1
Northwestern 6-2 10-3 104.1 103.9 103.9 104.0
Illinois 2-6 5-7 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
Purdue 1-7 2-10 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.7 106.5

 

Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 8-0 12-2 109.7 111.1 111.8 110.9
Marshall 6-2 10-3 97.9 98.7 97.7 98.1
Middle Tennessee 6-2 7-6 96.1 95.5 95.7 95.8
Florida Atlantic 3-5 3-9 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
Florida International 3-5 5-7 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
Charlotte 0-8 2-10 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 6-2 9-4 99.5 100.2 100.9 100.2
Sou. Mississippi 7-1 9-5 99.0 100.9 99.9 99.9
Rice 3-5 5-7 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
UTEP 3-5 5-7 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
UT-San Antonio 3-5 3-9 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
North Texas 1-7 1-11 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
             
CUSA Averages     86.2 88.2 86.5 87.0

 

FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   10-3 120.5 117.9 119.8 119.4
BYU   9-4 108.2 108.1 109.3 108.5
Army   2-10 79.1 86.6 80.4 82.0
             
Independents Averages     102.6 104.2 103.2 103.3

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 7-1 10-4 105.7 110.2 108.2 108.0
Ohio 5-3 8-5 89.1 93.5 91.4 91.3
Akron 5-3 8-5 87.3 93.6 89.6 90.2
Massachusetts 2-6 3-9 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
Buffalo 3-5 5-7 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
Kent St. 2-6 3-9 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
Miami (O) 2-6 3-9 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-2 10-2 105.3 107.0 107.0 106.4
Western Michigan 6-2 8-5 103.1 104.5 105.0 104.2
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-6 93.2 96.7 93.5 94.5
Central Michigan 6-2 7-6 90.5 94.2 92.0 92.2
Ball St. 2-6 3-9 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
Eastern Michigan 0-8 1-11 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
             
MAC Averages     87.7 91.5 88.9 89.4

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 5-3 9-4 110.1 108.2 110.6 109.6
Air Force 6-2 8-6 98.5 101.0 98.4 99.3
Utah St. 5-3 6-7 96.4 97.1 94.8 96.1
New Mexico 5-3 7-6 92.5 93.3 92.2 92.7
Colorado St. 5-3 7-6 92.2 92.9 91.3 92.1
Wyoming 2-6 2-10 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 8-0 11-3 108.2 112.5 109.8 110.2
San Jose St. 4-4 6-7 92.6 94.8 93.1 93.5
Nevada 4-4 7-6 90.3 94.0 91.0 91.8
UNLV 2-6 3-9 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
Fresno St. 2-6 3-9 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
Hawaii 0-8 3-10 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.5 91.5 92.3

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 8-1 12-2 126.3 124.1 127.2 125.9
Oregon 7-2 9-4 118.8 113.4 119.2 117.1
Washington 4-5 7-6 115.7 112.6 115.5 114.6
California 4-5 8-5 115.2 110.8 114.8 113.6
Washington St. 6-3 9-4 108.7 105.7 109.8 108.1
Oregon St. 0-9 2-10 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 6-3 8-6 118.5 114.0 117.1 116.5
UCLA 5-4 8-5 118.9 113.3 116.9 116.4
Utah 6-3 10-3 118.0 112.5 116.3 115.6
Arizona St. 4-5 6-7 114.1 109.2 113.7 112.3
Arizona 3-6 7-6 107.7 102.5 106.4 105.5
Colorado 1-8 4-9 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.7 112.3 111.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 5-3 9-4 122.4 118.9 122.9 121.4
Georgia 5-3 10-3 115.9 111.2 114.9 114.0
Florida 7-1 10-4 111.7 108.4 111.2 110.4
South Carolina 1-7 3-9 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
Missouri 1-7 5-7 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
Kentucky 2-6 5-7 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
Vanderbilt 2-6 4-8 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 14-1 133.6 131.3 133.8 132.9
Ole Miss 6-2 10-3 126.4 122.2 126.2 124.9
LSU 5-3 9-3 121.4 117.9 121.4 120.2
Arkansas 5-3 8-5 121.6 116.5 121.4 119.8
Mississippi St. 4-4 9-4 118.2 115.2 118.6 117.3
Auburn 2-6 7-6 114.8 112.1 114.0 113.6
Texas A&M 4-4 8-5 115.1 111.7 112.7 113.2
             
SEC Averages     115.5 112.0 114.9 114.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 6-2 9-4 100.0 103.1 102.5 101.9
Appalachian St. 7-1 11-2 96.1 99.2 97.4 97.6
Arkansas St. 8-0 9-4 94.0 95.4 95.7 95.0
Georgia St. 5-3 6-7 85.8 87.3 86.7 86.6
Troy 3-5 4-8 84.2 85.5 84.8 84.8
UL-Lafayette 3-5 4-8 76.6 79.1 76.3 77.3
South Alabama 3-5 5-7 75.0 79.8 75.9 76.9
Idaho 3-5 4-8 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
Texas St. 2-6 3-9 73.2 75.6 72.8 73.9
New Mexico St. 3-5 3-9 72.6 73.8 72.0 72.8
UL-Monroe 1-7 2-11 71.4 71.4 71.7 71.5
             
Sun Belt Averages     82.1 84.5 82.8 83.1

 

  

January 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings 2016 College Football Championship Game Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 6:42 am

2016 College Football Playoffs National Championship Game Information

Date: Monday, January 11, 2016

Site: University of Phoenix Stadium: Glendale, Arizona

TV Network: ESPN

Approximate Kickoff: 8:30 PM EST

Talent: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, Tom Rinaldi

Radio Network: ESPN

Talent: Mike Tirico, Todd Blackledge, Holly Rowe, Joe Schad

 

Opponents: #1 Clemson (14-0) vs. #2 Alabama (13-1)

Las Vegas Spread (avg.): Alabama by 6 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 10.0 expected score 34-24

Mean: Alabama by 7.1 expected score 31-24

Bias: Alabama by 9.7 expected score 34-24

Average: Alabama by 8.9 expected score 33-24

 

100 Computer Simulations

Alabama wins: 86

Clemson wins: 14

Average Score: Alabama 34.9  Clemson 23.4

Standard Deviation: 8.9

Alabama Outlier: Alabama 42  Clemson 20

Clemson Outlier: Clemson 37  Alabama 23

December 11, 2015

Selections Against The Spread: December 11, 2015

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , — piratings @ 7:25 pm

With only one college game on the schedule this week, we had few selections to go with.  Therefore, you get a smaller version of selections this week.

 

We are playing both the sides and totals in the Army-Navy game, and then we have two NFL Money Line Parlays, both of which present better than even money odds.  The problem is that with so few opportunities at this point in the season, it is hard to diversify.  It is a crap shoot.  Either we win big or lose big.

Straight Selections

12/11/2015      
Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Navy Army 22.5 Army
Navy Army 50 Over

Money Line Parlays

Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 13-10   $233 payout          on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Kansas City San Diego   Kansas City
Tampa Bay New Orleans   Tampa Bay
Denver Oakland   Denver
       
       
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 6-5   $220 payout          on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Carolina Atlanta   Carolina
New York Jets Tennessee   New York Jets
Green Bay Dallas   Green Bay

December 7, 2015

College Football Preview–December 12, 2015

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:42 am

There is just one regular season FBS game remaining, and it’s the Army-Navy game this week to be played at Franklin Financial Field in Philadelphia.

 

Because our ratings rely on the results of all teams, we cannot post our bowl predictions until this game is finished. Our spreads of all 40 bowl games/playoff games will be posted after this game concludes.

This Week’s Game
         
Opponent Opponent PiRate Mean Bias
Saturday, December 12
Army Navy -27.8 -24.3 -27.6
Game to be played in Philadelphia

PiRate Ratings For This Week

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Oklahoma
4 Ohio St.
5 Michigan St.
6 Stanford
7 Notre Dame
8 Iowa
9 Florida St.
10 TCU
11 Ole Miss
12 North Carolina
13 Houston
14 Oklahoma St.
15 LSU
16 Oregon
17 Baylor
18 Florida
19 Northwestern
20 Michigan
21 Utah
22 USC
23 Tennessee
24 Wisconsin
25 Georgia
26 Navy
27 Memphis
28 Arkansas
29 Western Kentucky
30 Bowling Green
31 Mississippi St.
32 UCLA
33 Toledo
34 Temple
35 Texas A&M
36 BYU
37 California
38 Pittsburgh
39 West Virginia
40 Miami (Fla.)
41 Washington
42 South Florida
43 Washington St.
44 Appalachian St.
45 San Diego St.
46 Texas Tech
47 Louisville
48 Penn St.
49 North Carolina St.
50 Auburn
51 Arizona St.
52 Western Michigan
53 Boise St.
54 Virginia Tech
55 Cincinnati
56 Arkansas St.
57 Nebraska
58 Kansas St.
59 Southern Miss.
60 Indiana
61 Georgia Southern
62 Marshall
63 Duke
64 Texas
65 Northern Illinois
66 Air Force
67 Minnesota
68 Louisiana Tech
69 Illinois
70 Arizona
71 Central Michigan
72 Ohio
73 Georgia Tech
74 Utah St.
75 Connecticut
76 Missouri
77 East Carolina
78 Middle Tennessee
79 Virginia
80 Iowa St.
81 South Carolina
82 Vanderbilt
83 Akron
84 Tulsa
85 Maryland
86 Colorado St.
87 Syracuse
88 Georgia St.
89 Kentucky
90 New Mexico
91 Colorado
92 San Jose St.
93 Rutgers
94 Boston College
95 Wake Forest
96 Nevada
97 Buffalo
98 Oregon St.
99 Purdue
100 South Alabama
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Ball St.
104 Florida Atlantic
105 Rice
106 SMU
107 Idaho
108 Old Dominion
109 Massachusetts
110 UNLV
111 UTEP
112 Louisiana-Lafayette
113 Fresno St.
114 Tulane
115 Kent St.
116 Miami (O)
117 Texas St.
118 UTSA
119 Kansas
120 New Mexico St.
121 Hawaii
122 Wyoming
123 Louisiana-Monroe
124 Army
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.5 129.1 131.4 130.7
2 Oklahoma 130.2 126.5 130.9 129.2
3 Ohio St. 129.0 124.6 129.8 127.8
4 Stanford 124.5 121.7 124.9 123.7
5 Ole Miss 124.7 120.2 123.9 122.9
6 Clemson 121.8 122.6 122.0 122.1
7 Baylor 122.9 118.8 122.7 121.5
8 North Carolina 121.1 121.4 120.7 121.1
9 TCU 123.1 115.6 124.0 120.9
10 Notre Dame 121.2 118.9 120.9 120.3
11 Arkansas 121.3 116.4 120.8 119.5
12 Michigan St. 119.7 117.2 119.7 118.9
13 Tennessee 120.1 116.2 120.2 118.8
14 LSU 119.8 116.4 119.4 118.5
15 UCLA 120.5 114.8 118.9 118.1
16 USC 119.7 115.0 118.7 117.8
17 Florida St. 117.2 118.4 117.1 117.6
18 Oregon 118.6 113.3 118.8 116.9
19 Utah 118.1 112.3 116.3 115.6
20 Mississippi St. 116.5 113.1 116.5 115.4
21 Washington 115.9 112.6 115.8 114.8
22 Michigan 115.8 113.0 115.3 114.7
23 Texas A&M 116.4 112.9 114.4 114.6
24 Georgia 116.1 111.2 115.4 114.2
25 Oklahoma St. 115.1 111.9 114.7 113.9
26 Florida 114.5 111.4 114.4 113.4
27 California 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
28 West Virginia 114.9 109.2 114.3 112.8
29 Arizona St. 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
30 Iowa 111.7 113.3 112.5 112.5
31 Houston 109.8 115.2 112.0 112.3
32 Auburn 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
33 Wisconsin 111.6 111.2 110.8 111.2
34 Bowling Green 108.5 113.3 111.6 111.1
35 Virginia Tech 110.7 110.4 110.8 110.6
36 Western Kentucky 109.5 110.4 111.2 110.4
37 North Carolina St. 109.4 110.4 107.9 109.2
38 BYU 108.1 108.3 109.3 108.6
39 Louisville 108.0 109.5 107.9 108.5
40 Temple 106.9 109.9 108.4 108.4
41 Memphis 107.7 108.8 108.0 108.2
42 Pittsburgh 107.5 108.1 107.8 107.8
43 Nebraska 108.5 106.9 107.8 107.7
44 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
45 Washington St. 108.5 105.1 109.3 107.6
46 Navy 105.9 109.9 107.0 107.6
47 San Diego St. 105.7 109.8 106.9 107.5
48 Miami 106.1 106.7 107.2 106.7
49 Northwestern 106.4 106.6 106.6 106.5
50 Boise St. 107.3 105.1 107.2 106.5
51 Texas 107.5 103.4 107.3 106.1
52 South Carolina 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
53 Arizona 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
54 Texas Tech 108.1 100.4 108.3 105.6
55 Missouri 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
56 Toledo 103.7 105.0 104.9 104.5
57 South Florida 102.1 107.8 103.4 104.4
58 Minnesota 105.1 103.6 104.2 104.3
59 Western Michigan 102.6 103.8 104.0 103.5
60 Penn St. 103.8 103.3 103.0 103.4
61 Colorado 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
62 Kansas St. 106.0 97.5 105.7 103.1
63 Cincinnati 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
64 Duke 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
65 Illinois 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
66 Virginia 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
67 Indiana 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
68 Boston College 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
69 Kentucky 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
70 Air Force 98.7 102.1 99.1 100.0
71 Southern Mississippi 98.8 100.9 99.6 99.8
72 Iowa St. 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
73 Georgia Southern 97.2 100.0 99.1 98.8
74 Louisiana Tech 98.3 98.6 99.1 98.7
75 Vanderbilt 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
76 Marshall 97.9 98.5 97.6 98.0
77 Appalachian St. 96.4 99.5 97.9 97.9
78 Northern Illinois 96.0 99.8 96.9 97.6
79 Wake Forest 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
80 Utah St. 97.6 97.8 96.0 97.1
81 Arkansas St. 95.2 97.0 97.5 96.6
82 Middle Tennessee 96.6 96.2 96.7 96.5
83 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
84 Syracuse 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
85 Purdue 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
86 Maryland 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
87 Connecticut 91.0 95.5 92.3 92.9
88 San Jose St. 92.2 94.2 92.2 92.9
89 Colorado St. 92.8 93.3 92.3 92.8
90 New Mexico 92.3 93.4 91.8 92.5
91 Central Michigan 90.3 94.2 91.7 92.1
92 Rutgers 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
93 Tulsa 89.8 93.9 90.9 91.5
94 Nevada 89.7 93.6 90.0 91.1
95 Ohio 88.8 93.2 90.9 91.0
96 Akron 86.1 92.9 88.4 89.1
97 Georgia St. 86.2 87.9 87.6 87.2
98 Oregon St. 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
99 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
100 Troy 84.2 85.5 84.8 84.8
101 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
102 SMU 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
103 Massachusetts 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
104 Buffalo 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
105 Tulane 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
106 UNLV 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
107 Fresno St. 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
108 Army 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
109 Wyoming 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
110 Rice 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
111 Ball St. 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
112 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
113 Old Dominion 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
114 Kent St. 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
115 Hawaii 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
116 UT-San Antonio 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
117 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
118 UL-Lafayette 76.6 79.1 76.3 77.3
119 South Alabama 75.0 79.8 75.9 76.9
120 Idaho 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
121 Central Florida 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
122 Texas St. 73.2 75.6 72.8 73.9
123 Eastern Michigan 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
124 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
125 New Mexico St. 72.6 73.8 72.0 72.8
126 Kansas 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
127 UL-Monroe 71.4 71.4 71.7 71.5
128 Charlotte 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
2 Pac-12 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
3 Big 12 110.4 104.8 110.1 108.4
4 ACC 107.8 108.5 107.5 107.9
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
6 Indep. 102.5 104.3 103.2 103.3
7 AAC 95.9 99.4 96.6 97.3
8 MWC 91.5 93.1 91.1 91.9
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.5
10 CUSA 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 82.0 84.4 82.8 83.1

 

Bowl Pairings

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC San Jose St. * vs. Georgia St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Arizona *
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Utah vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Temple vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. Northern Illinois
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Cincinnati vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Connecticut vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami vs. Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Washington * vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Tulsa * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nebraska vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Pittsburgh vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Central Michigan * vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC California * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 North Carolina vs. Baylor
Arizona CUSA MWC Colorado St. * vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. vs. Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Florida St. vs. Houston
Cotton Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. Michigan St.
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. USC
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan vs. Florida
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Ole Miss
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Ohio St. vs. Notre Dame
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Michigan St. vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

FCS Playoffs

2nd Round    
Jacksonville St. 41 ot
Chattanooga 35  
     
Charleston Sou. 14  
Citadel 6  
     
Colgate 44  
James Madison 38  
     
Sam Houston 34  
McNeese St. 29  
     
North Dakota St. 37  
Montana 6  
     
Northern Iowa 29  
Portland St. 17  
     
Richmond 48  
William & Mary 13  
     
Illinois St. 36  
Western Illinois 19  

 

Quarterfinal Round Games

Quarterfinals D. 11-13 All times ET
@ Illinois St. 10-2 D.11 7:30 PM
Richmond 9-3 ESPN3
     
@ Sam Houston 10-3 D.12 8PM
Colgate 9-4  No TV
     
@ Jacksonville St. 11-1 D.11 8 PM
Charleston Southern 10-2 ESPN2
     
@ North Dakota St. 10-2 D.13 12 AM
Northern Iowa 9-4 ESPN

 

 

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