The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 8, 2015

College Football Preview: November 10-14, 2015

The Week That Was–The Big Skakedown
It started last Tuesday with Northern Illinois knocking off unbeaten Toledo. Memphis, Michigan State, TCU, and LSU followed suit, and now it’s down to Clemson, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Ohio State, and Iowa. Five unbeaten teams remain, but at least two of the quintet must lose, because Ohio State and Iowa would meet in the Big Ten Championship Game if they won out, and Baylor and Oklahoma State must play in the regular season.

Does this mean that #1 Clemson’s path is clear and easy? No, because the Tigers may not be the best team in the ACC at the present time. North Carolina had a bump in the road in the opening week of the season, blowing a lead and losing to South Carolina to open the season. Since then, the Tar Heels have dominated on both sides of the ball. The most recent win, a blowout of rival Duke, moves UNC into the driver’s seat in the Coastal Division.

The schedule does not have as many great games this week, but there are many important ones. Not only are conference races still up for grabs, there are about 20 teams competing for the final six to eight bowl bids. As we believed last week, we continue to believe this week that only 79 teams will reach bowl eligibility. That means one 5-7 team will back into a bowl game. The rule states that if it comes down to 5-7 teams, the tiebreaker is the last football APR (academic progress rate) score. In case you were wondering, Nebraska is number one in line with a 985 score, followed by Vanderbilt (983), Army (981), Rutgers (980), Boston College (980), Georgia Tech (978), Virginia Tech (977), Washington (977), and Kansas St. (976) (teams already bowl eligible were not included in the APR rankings.)

Let’s break the conference races down and show you just how dysfunctional the race to the Playoffs could be.

Power Five Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Clemson sits pretty at 6-0/9-0 with little competition in their site in the regular season. However, North Carolina looks to be headed to an 8-0 finish. We believe that the Tar Heels have a better than 50-50 chance of beating Clemson and securing the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.

Notre Dame is included in the ACC write-up, since the Irish can receive an ACC bowl bid and even jump over an ACC team with one additional win. The Irish must close out the season at Stanford, and as of now, we believe the Cardinal will win a close one. At 10-2, Notre Dame would jump over everybody else in the ACC that isn’t automatically in a NY6 Bowl.

Florida State will look much better if the Seminoles edge Florida in three weeks, while Duke and Pittsburgh will decide who rates ahead of the other when they face off in Durham this week.

Miami, North Carolina State, and Louisville will go somewhere, while Virginia Tech still has a strong chance of getting a sixth win. Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Virginia are out for now.

Big Ten
Ohio State and Iowa look like they are headed to an epic 12-0 vs. 12-0 battle in the Big Ten Championship Game, but those sneaky PiRates believe there is going to be a little fly in the Buckeye ointment. All season long, we have been looking at the upstart rival up north. Michigan may be repeating history from 1969. If you didn’t read our analogy from October, we compared this season to 1969, when defending national champion Ohio State entered the final game undefeated and ranked number one, while Michigan came into the game with two losses, one to a conference champion from another power conference, and one to Michigan State. In 1969, Michigan’s defense shut down Ohio State in the second half and pulled off a big upset at the Big House to win the Big Ten title. The PiRates believe history can and will repeat itself, and Michigan will win the East by upsetting Ohio State again.

Iowa must lost twice for Wisconsin to pass them in the standings, and the Hawkeyes close with Minnesota and Purdue at home and Nebraska on the road. The Hawkeyes might run the table, but we believe Michigan or Ohio State would beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should Michigan State upset Ohio State and take the East Division flag, then Iowa might take the conference title and advance to the playoffs at 13-0. For now, we say Michigan over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. That would leave an Ohio State team at 11-1 probably as the number four seed in the playoffs.

Besides the five teams previously mentioned, Penn State and Northwestern are sure things for bowls. Indiana and Rutgers have the next two best chances to get to 6-6, while Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska have minor chances.

Big 12
TCU can still win the Big 12 Championship, but the Horned Frogs are out of the playoff picture. Oklahoma State and Baylor, remain undefeated, while Oklahoma sits a game back with one loss. Baylor still must play all three of the contenders consecutively, and we believe the Bears are going to lose at least one game and more likely two of the three.

Oklahoma cannot lose another game and win the league, and the Sooners close with the other three contenders, with Baylor and Oklahoma State coming on the road.

Oklahoma State has a winnable road game against Iowa State, and then the Cowboys close with home games against Baylor and Oklahoma. After OSU dismissed TCU, it looks like the boys from Stillwater have the best chance of running the table and entering the playoffs at 12-0.

There is quite a drop after the top four. We see three additional bowl eligible teams in West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. As for Texas, the Longhorns are 4-5 with games at West Virginia, home against Texas Tech, and a finale at Baylor. It looks like 5-7 for the Longhorns, and 5-7 may not allow Coach Charlie Strong to keep his job.

Pac-12
This is an interesting race, and it may be so balanced at this point that no team emerges with just one loss. In the North, Stanford needs one more conference win to clinch the division. The Cardinal can do that this week against Oregon, but if the Ducks win, the race is still alive. The Ducks could then win the division by knocking off USC and Oregon State, if California beats Stanford.

Washington State can still tie for the division crown by winning at UCLA, home against Colorado, and at Washington, if Stanford loses to Oregon and Cal, and Oregon wins out. However, the Cougars have been eliminated from the Pac-12 Championship Game, because Oregon would edge WSU with a better intradivisional record.

California needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and the Bears should get that against Oregon State this week. Washington might finish 5-7 with losses at Arizona State and against Washington State, but the Huskies might be the one lucky 5-7 team to make it to a bowl thanks to their APR score.

The South Division title is still undecided with Utah holding a one game lead over USC and UCLA. The Trojans beat the Utes earlier this year, while Utah and UCLA have yet to play, and of course USC and UCLA have yet to play. Utah is not getting much respect, and the Utes are not totally out of the playoff race themselves. If they beat UCLA and then knock off Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game, a 12-1 Utah team could make a case, especially if USC continues to win.

Arizona State is a wounded team coming in with just one engine, but the Seminoles have the best shot of the rest of getting to 6-6.

Southeastern
Who is going to beat Alabama the rest of the way? The Crimson Tide are supposed to be headed for a trap game at Mississippi State this week, but the Bulldogs do not have enough talent to upset the Tide, unless ‘Bama gives them 14 points in turnovers like they did against Ole Miss.

Ole Miss played themselves out of the conference championship picture with the loss to Arkansas. Facemask penalties can be big. LSU could only win the West if they win out and Alabama loses. It may be even harder for the Tigers to win out than for someone else to beat Alabama.

The rest of this division will also be bowl eligible, an incredible seven out of seven. Because of this, a 12-1 Alabama team might deserve to be the overal number one seed regardless of who else goes undefeated.

Florida has already clinched the East Division, but the Gators might still lose two more games. A team that scores just nine points at home on Vanderbilt could easily lose at South Carolina or at home to Florida State, and they will lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Tennessee was 3-4 two weeks ago, but the Volunteers should win out to finish 8-4 and take second in the division. Georgia has a tough finishing conference game at Auburn, but the Bulldogs finish with two sure things out of conference against Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech. If they lose either one, then Mark Richt becomed unemployed.

Kentucky has now lost four games in a row to fall to 4-5, but the Wildcats’ next two games are winnable. This week’s game at Vanderbilt could be tough, but the Commodores’ offense is as weak as any Power Six Conference team, and a couple of scores could be all the Wildcats need to secure a win. The following week’s game against Charlotte should get the ‘Cats bowl eligible if they knock off the Commodores this week.

South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Missouri are out of the bowl race, and Missouri’s team could be looking at one or more forfeit losses to close the season due to racial tensions on the campus leading to a team walkout. Missouri’s proposed finishing schedule includes a game against BYU in Kansas City this weekend, followed by a home game against Tennessee and a road game against Arkansas.

Group of Five Conferences

American Athletic
Navy’s upset of Memphis ruined the big game for this week, when the Tigers go to Houston. Houston is still in control of the New Year’s Six Bowl that goes to the best Group of Five team, but the Cougars have three tough games to go. Besides needing to beat Memphis, they have to beat Navy and then Temple in the AAC Championship Game.

Don’t count out Navy just yet. The Midshipmen’s lone loss is to Notre Dame, and they did not look like the underdog pulling off a surprise in the win at Memphis. Navy could do the same thing to Houston and take the West Division flag.

Tulsa is not in contention in the West, but the Golden Hurricane needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. The season-ended against Tulane ought to give UT that win.

Temple has a two-game lead in the East Division, but they have a tough closing schedule. The Owls play at the hot South Florida Bulls this week, and USF is still alive in the division race. TU then finishes with home games against Memphis and Connecticut. We believe TU will win out and then win the Conference Championship Game to earn the New Year’s Six Bowl bid.

Besides USF, Cincinnati appears to be the only other team headed to bowl eligibility, as Connecticut and East Carolina don’t appear to have enough winnable games left.

Conference USA
Any chance that a C-USA team could make it to the New Year’s Six Bowl was lost when Marshall lost at Middle Tennessee this past weekend. Western Kentucky already had two losses, and even if the Hilltoppers win out, they will not jump over every AAC team.

The Middle Tennessee win virtually locked up a bowl bid for the Blue Raiders, while Old Dominion and Florida International still hold slim chances of making it to six wins.

In the West, Louisiana Tech looks invincible at this point, but Southern Miss. still has a shot. We believe the winner of that game will eventually emerge as the overall conference champion and have first dibs on which of seven contracted bowls they wish to accept, or in other words accepts the Bahamas Bowl.

Rice and UTEP still have even money odds’ chances of finishing 6-6.

Independents
BYU has already clinched a bowl, and they will be invited to either the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl.

Army already has seven losses, but if the Black Knights beat Tulane, Rutgers, and Navy, they could still earn a bowl bid with a superior APR score. We think West Point will lose an eighth, ninth, and tenth game, so it is a moot point.

Mid-American
Bowling Green is up two games with three to play in the East, and the Falcons would have to lose all three for Buffalo to surpass them. The Bulls need just one more win to become bowl eligible, and that should happen with a game against UMass on November 27, if not at Akron the week before.

Akron needs two more wins, and the Zips still have Miami of Ohio and Kent State on their schedule. Call it 6-6 for Terry Bowden’s crew, as Akron makes it to a bowl for the second time ever.

Ohio needs one more win to earn a bowl bid. The Bobcats were once a leading contender to win the division, but the season soured at the halfway point. Weak opponents in consecutive weeks against Kent State and Ball State should get Ohio to 7-5.

The West Division is a mess thanks to last week’s results. Western Michigan is now alone in first place at 5-0, but the Broncos have a killer finishing schedule against Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Toledo, the latter two on the road.

Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan are in a three-way tie at 4-1. TU has a schedule the equal of WMU with games at CMU, at BGU, and at home against WMU. NIU has it a little easier with games at Buffalo, and home against WMU and Ohio. CMU closes with Toledo at home but their final two games are easy wins against Kent State and Eastern Michigan. The Chippewas were a consensus 5th place choice in the preseason, and first year coach John Bonamego will draw a lot of attention from bigger schools after spending most of his career coaching in the NFL.

Mountain West
It was supposed to be a slam dunk 13-0 season for Boise State, but the Broncos stumbled early against BYU and lost at Utah State. Still, BSU can win the Mountain Division with a closing schedule of New Mexico, Air Force, and San Jose State. The Broncos will not be the favored team in the conference championship game if they win the division title.

Air Force still controls its own destiny in the Mountain Division, and hiding in the bushes, New Mexico also controls its own destiny. Bob Davie’s Lobos may not win out and take the division flag, but UNM needs just one more win to earn their first bowl bid since 2007. Utah State needs help to win the division and appears headed to a 6-6 finish.

Colorado State must win two more games to get to six wins, and the Rams should do it by defeating UNLV and Fresno State. That would mean five of the six Mountain teams would earn a bowl bid.

The West Division is not so fortunate. Only San Diego State is assured of earning a bowl bid at this point, and the Aztecs appear to be the class of the entire league this year.

Nevada should finish 6-6, but there is no guarantee that the Wolfpack will win another game with San Jose State, Utah State, and San Diego State left to play. As for San Jose State, the Spartans are 4-5 after a close loss to BYU, and they close with Nevada, Hawaii, and Boise State. The winner of the Nevada-San Jose State game should finish 6-6, but that is not for sure.

Sun Belt
In a weeknight surprise, Arkansas State upset Appalachian State to take command in the SBC. The Red Wolves have three easy marks in their way to the SBC title in Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, and Texas State. The fans in Jonesboro might be getting nervous, not because ASU could be upset, but because someone may come calling for Coach Blake Anderson.

Appalachian State will still go bowling this year, as will Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Lafayette.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 129.6 127.4 129.5 128.8
2 Ohio St. 128.5 123.1 129.3 127.0
3 Baylor 127.8 124.0 128.1 126.6
4 Oklahoma 127.0 123.7 127.6 126.1
5 Stanford 124.2 122.3 124.6 123.7
6 Clemson 122.9 124.1 123.6 123.5
7 TCU 126.0 117.7 126.4 123.4
8 LSU 123.6 120.8 123.7 122.7
9 Notre Dame 123.1 120.2 123.1 122.1
10 USC 122.0 118.1 122.0 120.7
11 North Carolina 120.3 120.8 120.6 120.6
12 Utah 121.9 116.8 121.4 120.0
13 UCLA 122.2 116.2 120.8 119.7
14 Ole Miss 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
15 Tennessee 120.6 116.5 120.4 119.2
16 Oklahoma St. 119.2 116.6 119.8 118.5
17 Florida 119.4 116.0 119.4 118.3
18 Michigan 119.0 116.2 119.1 118.1
19 Arkansas 118.8 113.6 118.0 116.8
20 Mississippi St. 116.7 113.4 117.2 115.8
21 Auburn 116.0 113.6 115.4 115.0
22 Oregon 117.1 110.8 116.7 114.9
23 Georgia 117.2 110.7 116.1 114.7
24 Michigan St. 115.5 112.3 114.8 114.2
25 Florida St. 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
26 Texas A&M 115.6 112.1 113.4 113.7
27 California 115.1 109.4 114.2 112.9
28 Houston 109.9 115.9 112.1 112.6
29 Wisconsin 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
30 Iowa 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
31 Georgia Tech 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
32 Arizona St. 113.6 108.1 112.1 111.3
33 Boise St. 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
34 North Carolina St. 110.4 112.2 109.4 110.7
35 West Virginia 112.9 106.9 111.9 110.6
36 Bowling Green 107.8 112.8 110.9 110.5
37 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
38 Temple 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
39 Washington 110.1 107.1 110.4 109.2
40 Louisville 107.5 110.2 107.3 108.3
41 Nebraska 108.4 106.6 107.6 107.5
42 Pittsburgh 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.2
43 Memphis 106.5 107.4 107.1 107.0
44 Missouri 108.4 104.8 107.3 106.8
45 South Carolina 108.3 104.8 106.8 106.6
46 Cincinnati 105.3 107.2 107.1 106.5
47 Penn St. 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
48 Washington St. 107.4 103.8 107.7 106.3
49 Duke 106.1 106.3 106.2 106.2
50 BYU 106.2 105.6 106.8 106.2
51 Navy 104.6 108.1 105.4 106.0
52 Western Kentucky 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
53 San Diego St. 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
54 Arizona 107.3 101.9 106.5 105.2
55 Miami 104.2 104.7 105.1 104.7
56 Illinois 105.4 103.9 104.5 104.6
57 Minnesota 105.2 103.5 104.5 104.4
58 Texas Tech 107.1 98.9 106.7 104.2
59 Northwestern 104.1 104.3 103.9 104.1
60 Toledo 103.2 104.2 104.7 104.0
61 Texas 105.0 101.7 105.0 103.9
62 Louisiana Tech 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
63 Western Michigan 102.3 103.2 103.7 103.1
64 Kansas St. 106.1 96.3 105.3 102.6
65 Colorado 104.7 99.6 102.4 102.2
66 Virginia 101.6 99.7 101.3 100.9
67 Kentucky 102.5 98.0 100.7 100.4
68 Vanderbilt 101.5 97.7 101.7 100.3
69 Utah St. 99.5 99.8 99.5 99.6
70 Boston College 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
71 Northern Illinois 97.0 100.9 97.9 98.6
72 Iowa St. 99.6 95.9 99.4 98.3
73 Appalachian St. 96.4 99.3 98.2 98.0
74 Air Force 96.6 100.8 96.0 97.8
75 Georgia Southern 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
76 Indiana 96.5 96.5 95.8 96.3
77 Wake Forest 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
78 Marshall 95.4 96.3 95.6 95.8
79 South Florida 93.3 99.1 94.4 95.6
80 Purdue 96.4 95.3 94.9 95.5
81 Maryland 95.0 94.1 94.9 94.7
82 East Carolina 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
83 Syracuse 93.3 95.7 92.2 93.7
84 Rutgers 94.7 91.4 92.7 92.9
85 Arkansas St. 92.1 93.2 93.3 92.9
86 Middle Tennessee 93.3 92.3 92.9 92.8
87 Central Michigan 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
88 Southern Mississippi 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
89 San Jose St. 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
90 Colorado St. 92.7 92.0 91.9 92.2
91 Tulsa 90.2 94.5 91.2 92.0
92 Connecticut 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
93 Florida International 89.8 92.2 89.9 90.6
94 Nevada 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
95 New Mexico 89.0 90.0 88.2 89.1
96 Oregon St. 90.4 87.1 88.2 88.6
97 Ohio 85.7 89.8 87.0 87.5
98 Buffalo 83.2 89.3 85.0 85.8
99 Tulane 85.2 87.4 84.4 85.7
100 Akron 83.2 88.9 84.7 85.6
101 UNLV 84.0 86.5 85.4 85.3
102 Massachusetts 84.1 86.9 84.8 85.3
103 SMU 83.9 87.8 83.5 85.1
104 Troy 83.7 85.1 85.2 84.7
105 UL-Lafayette 83.5 86.2 83.8 84.5
106 Rice 82.8 85.9 82.7 83.8
107 Florida Atlantic 82.3 85.4 83.1 83.6
108 Hawaii 82.0 83.7 80.9 82.2
109 Army 77.9 86.7 79.4 81.3
110 Ball St. 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
111 Fresno St. 80.1 83.6 78.1 80.6
112 Kent St. 79.5 82.2 80.1 80.6
113 Wyoming 80.1 81.6 78.9 80.2
114 Central Florida 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
115 UT-San Antonio 78.8 81.3 79.2 79.8
116 UTEP 77.1 79.8 77.0 78.0
117 Georgia St. 77.3 77.5 78.0 77.6
118 Old Dominion 76.3 80.7 75.7 77.6
119 Texas St. 76.6 79.8 76.2 77.5
120 South Alabama 74.8 80.9 75.9 77.2
121 Miami (O) 74.1 79.0 74.7 75.9
122 Idaho 73.0 78.3 74.1 75.1
123 North Texas 72.6 76.6 72.7 74.0
124 Kansas 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
125 UL-Monroe 73.2 72.1 73.2 72.8
126 Eastern Michigan 70.7 76.9 70.0 72.5
127 New Mexico St. 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
128 Charlotte 68.4 70.6 68.5 69.2

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Baylor
5 Notre Dame
6 LSU
7 Oklahoma
8 Stanford
9 Iowa
10 Utah
11 TCU
12 Florida
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Michigan
15 Michigan St.
16 Houston
17 USC
18 Mississippi St.
19 North Carolina
20 Memphis
21 Ole Miss
22 Navy
23 UCLA
24 Florida St.
25 Northwestern
26 Temple
27 BYU
28 Wisconsin
29 Tennessee
30 Boise St.
31 Toledo
32 Texas A&M
33 Bowling Green
34 Oregon
35 Penn St.
36 Western Kentucky
37 Arkansas
38 Washington St.
39 Georgia
40 Pittsburgh
41 California
42 Miami (Fla)
43 West Virginia
44 Auburn
45 Washington
46 Cincinnati
47 Duke
48 Louisville
49 North Carolina St.
50 Appalachian St.
51 Western Michigan
52 Louisiana Tech
53 San Diego St.
54 Northern Illinois
55 Illinois
56 Texas Tech
57 Georgia Southern
58 Arizona St.
59 Nebraska
60 Georgia Tech
61 Central Michigan
62 Air Force
63 Kansas St.
64 Minnesota
65 Virginia Tech
66 Marshall
67 South Florida
68 Utah St.
69 Arkansas St.
70 Texas
71 Indiana
72 Arizona
73 South Carolina
74 Connecticut
75 Southern Miss.
76 Tulsa
77 Virginia
78 Iowa St.
79 Kentucky
80 Missouri
81 Buffalo
82 Vanderbilt
83 Maryland
84 Middle Tennessee
85 San Jose St.
86 East Carolina
87 Ohio
88 Rutgers
89 Syracuse
90 Boston College
91 Colorado
92 Louisiana-Lafayette
93 Colorado St.
94 Akron
95 New Mexico
96 Nevada
97 South Alabama
98 Purdue
99 Wake Forest
100 Oregon St.
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Old Dominion
104 UNLV
105 Rice
106 Kent St.
107 Ball St.
108 Tulane
109 SMU
110 Army
111 Texas St.
112 UTEP
113 Idaho
114 Massachusetts
115 Florida Atlantic
116 Georgia St.
117 Fresno St.
118 Hawaii
119 Miami (O)
120 Kansas
121 UTSA
122 New Mexico St.
123 Wyoming
124 Louisiana-Monroe
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.7 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
4 ACC 107.5 108.3 107.1 107.6
5 Big Ten 107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.4 104.2 103.1 103.2
7 AAC 95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
9 MAC 87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.0 88.0 86.2 86.7
11 SBC 81.6 84.0 82.4 82.7

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 5-0 8-1 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
Cincinnati 2-3 5-4 105.3 107.2 107.1 106.5
South Florida 3-2 5-4 93.3 99.1 94.4 95.6
East Carolina 2-4 4-6 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
Connecticut 3-3 5-5 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
Central Florida 0-6 0-10 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 5-0 9-0 109.9 115.9 112.1 112.6
Memphis 4-1 8-1 106.5 107.4 107.1 107.0
Navy 5-0 7-1 104.6 108.1 105.4 106.0
Tulsa 2-3 5-4 90.2 94.5 91.2 92.0
Tulane 1-5 2-7 85.2 87.4 84.4 85.7
SMU 0-5 1-8 83.9 87.8 83.5 85.1
             
AAC Averages     95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 6-0 9-0 122.9 124.1 123.6 123.5
Florida St. 5-2 7-2 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
North Carolina St. 2-3 6-3 110.4 112.2 109.4 110.7
Louisville 4-2 5-4 107.5 110.2 107.3 108.3
Boston College 0-7 3-7 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
Wake Forest 1-5 3-6 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
Syracuse 1-4 3-6 93.3 95.7 92.2 93.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 5-0 8-1 120.3 120.8 120.6 120.6
Georgia Tech 1-5 3-6 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-3 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.2
Duke 3-2 6-3 106.1 106.3 106.2 106.2
Miami 3-2 6-3 104.2 104.7 105.1 104.7
Virginia 2-3 3-6 101.6 99.7 101.3 100.9
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.3 107.1 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 5-0 8-0 127.8 124.0 128.1 126.6
Oklahoma 5-1 8-1 127.0 123.7 127.6 126.1
TCU 5-1 8-1 126.0 117.7 126.4 123.4
Oklahoma St. 6-0 9-0 119.2 116.6 119.8 118.5
West Virginia 1-4 4-4 112.9 106.9 111.9 110.6
Texas Tech 2-5 5-5 107.1 98.9 106.7 104.2
Texas 3-3 4-5 105.0 101.7 105.0 103.9
Kansas St. 0-5 3-5 106.1 96.3 105.3 102.6
Iowa St. 2-4 3-6 99.6 95.9 99.4 98.3
Kansas 0-6 0-9 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-0 9-0 128.5 123.1 129.3 127.0
Michigan 4-1 7-2 119.0 116.2 119.1 118.1
Michigan St. 4-1 8-1 115.5 112.3 114.8 114.2
Penn St. 4-2 7-3 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
Indiana 0-5 4-5 96.5 96.5 95.8 96.3
Maryland 0-5 2-7 95.0 94.1 94.9 94.7
Rutgers 1-5 3-6 94.7 91.4 92.7 92.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 5-1 8-2 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
Iowa 5-0 9-0 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
Nebraska 2-4 4-6 108.4 106.6 107.6 107.5
Illinois 2-3 5-4 105.4 103.9 104.5 104.6
Minnesota 1-4 4-5 105.2 103.5 104.5 104.4
Northwestern 3-2 7-2 104.1 104.3 103.9 104.1
Purdue 1-4 2-7 96.4 95.3 94.9 95.5
             
Big Ten Averages     107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 6-0 8-2 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
Marshall 5-1 8-2 95.4 96.3 95.6 95.8
Middle Tennessee 3-2 4-5 93.3 92.3 92.9 92.8
Florida International 3-3 5-5 89.8 92.2 89.9 90.6
Florida Atlantic 2-4 2-7 82.3 85.4 83.1 83.6
Old Dominion 2-3 4-5 76.3 80.7 75.7 77.6
Charlotte 0-6 2-7 68.4 70.6 68.5 69.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 5-1 7-3 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
Southern Mississippi 4-1 6-3 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
Rice 2-3 4-5 82.8 85.9 82.7 83.8
UT-San Antonio 1-4 1-8 78.8 81.3 79.2 79.8
UTEP 2-3 4-5 77.1 79.8 77.0 78.0
North Texas 1-5 1-8 72.6 76.6 72.7 74.0
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.0 86.2 86.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-1 123.1 120.2 123.1 122.1
BYU   7-2 106.2 105.6 106.8 106.2
Army   2-7 77.9 86.7 79.4 81.3
             
Independents Averages     102.4 104.2 103.1 103.2
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 5-0 7-2 107.8 112.8 110.9 110.5
Ohio 2-3 5-4 85.7 89.8 87.0 87.5
Buffalo 3-2 5-4 83.2 89.3 85.0 85.8
Akron 2-3 4-5 83.2 88.9 84.7 85.6
Massachusetts 0-5 1-8 84.1 86.9 84.8 85.3
Kent St. 2-3 3-6 79.5 82.2 80.1 80.6
Miami (O) 1-5 2-8 74.1 79.0 74.7 75.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-1 7-1 103.2 104.2 104.7 104.0
Western Michigan 5-0 6-3 102.3 103.2 103.7 103.1
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 97.0 100.9 97.9 98.6
Central Michigan 4-1 5-4 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
Ball St. 2-4 3-7 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
Eastern Michigan 0-6 1-9 70.7 76.9 70.0 72.5
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
Utah St. 4-2 5-4 99.5 99.8 99.5 99.6
Air Force 4-1 6-3 96.6 100.8 96.0 97.8
Colorado St. 2-3 4-5 92.7 92.0 91.9 92.2
New Mexico 3-2 5-4 89.0 90.0 88.2 89.1
Wyoming 1-5 1-9 80.1 81.6 78.9 80.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-0 6-3 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
San Jose St. 3-2 4-5 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
Nevada 3-2 5-4 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
UNLV 2-3 3-6 84.0 86.5 85.4 85.3
Hawaii 0-6 2-8 82.0 83.7 80.9 82.2
Fresno St. 1-5 2-7 80.1 83.6 78.1 80.6
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 7-0 8-1 124.2 122.3 124.6 123.7
Oregon 4-2 6-3 117.1 110.8 116.7 114.9
California 2-4 5-4 115.1 109.4 114.2 112.9
Washington 2-4 4-5 110.1 107.1 110.4 109.2
Washington St. 4-2 6-3 107.4 103.8 107.7 106.3
Oregon St. 0-6 2-7 90.4 87.1 88.2 88.6
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 4-2 6-3 122.0 118.1 122.0 120.7
Utah 5-1 8-1 121.9 116.8 121.4 120.0
UCLA 4-2 7-2 122.2 116.2 120.8 119.7
Arizona St. 2-4 4-5 113.6 108.1 112.1 111.3
Arizona 2-5 5-5 107.3 101.9 106.5 105.2
Colorado 1-5 4-6 104.7 99.6 102.4 102.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 3-3 5-4 120.6 116.5 120.4 119.2
Florida 6-1 8-1 119.4 116.0 119.4 118.3
Georgia 4-3 6-3 117.2 110.7 116.1 114.7
Missouri 1-5 4-5 108.4 104.8 107.3 106.8
South Carolina 1-6 3-6 108.3 104.8 106.8 106.6
Kentucky 2-5 4-5 102.5 98.0 100.7 100.4
Vanderbilt 1-4 3-6 101.5 97.7 101.7 100.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-1 8-1 129.6 127.4 129.5 128.8
LSU 4-1 7-1 123.6 120.8 123.7 122.7
Ole Miss 4-2 7-3 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
Arkansas 3-2 5-4 118.8 113.6 118.0 116.8
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 116.7 113.4 117.2 115.8
Auburn 2-4 5-4 116.0 113.6 115.4 115.0
Texas A&M 3-3 6-3 115.6 112.1 113.4 113.7
             
SEC Averages     115.7 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 4-1 7-2 96.4 99.3 98.2 98.0
Georgia Southern 4-1 6-2 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
Arkansas St. 5-0 6-3 92.1 93.2 93.3 92.9
Troy 2-3 3-6 83.7 85.1 85.2 84.7
UL-Lafayette 3-1 4-4 83.5 86.2 83.8 84.5
Georgia St. 1-3 2-6 77.3 77.5 78.0 77.6
Texas St. 1-3 2-6 76.6 79.8 76.2 77.5
South Alabama 2-2 4-4 74.8 80.9 75.9 77.2
Idaho 2-4 3-6 73.0 78.3 74.1 75.1
UL-Monroe 0-5 1-8 73.2 72.1 73.2 72.8
New Mexico St. 2-3 2-7 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.6 84.0 82.4 82.7

NCAA Playoff Projections
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio St.
4 Notre Dame

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Houston      
2 Navy      
3 Temple      
4 Memphis      
5 Boise St.      

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Boston College  
9 Iowa St.  
8 Indiana  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Purdue  
5 Maryland  
4 Syracuse  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.9
2 Harvard 94.2
3 North Dakota St. 91.9
4 McNeese St. 91.7
5 Dartmouth 91.5
6 Dayton 91.3
7 Charleston Southern 90.2
8 South Dakota St. 90.0
9 Illinois St. 89.6
10 Coastal Carolina 89.6

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 10        
Ohio Kent St. 8.7 10.1 9.4
Central Michigan Toledo -10.0 -6.7 9.4
         
Wednesday, November 11        
Buffalo Northern Illinois -10.8 -8.6 -9.9
Western Michigan Bowling Green -2.5 -6.6 -4.2
         
Thursday, November 12        
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette -6.2 -2.8 -5.4
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 5.5 3.4 4.3
         
Friday, November 13        
Colorado USC -14.3 -15.5 -16.6
         
Saturday, November 14        
Duke Pittsburgh 1.8 1.5 1.3
Auburn Georgia 1.8 5.9 2.3
South Carolina Florida -8.1 -8.2 -9.6
Tennessee North Texas 51.0 42.9 50.7
Army Tulane -4.3 2.3 -2.0
West Virginia Texas 10.9 8.2 9.9
Illinois Ohio St. -20.1 -16.2 -21.8
TCU Kansas 53.3 51.4 56.0
Michigan St. Maryland 23.5 21.2 22.9
Northwestern Purdue 10.2 11.5 11.5
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee -8.5 -4.4 -7.3
Miami (O) Akron -7.1 -7.9 -8.0
Old Dominion UTEP 2.2 3.9 1.7
Florida St. North Carolina St. 6.7 5.6 7.0
Louisville Virginia 8.9 13.5 9.0
Charlotte UTSA -7.9 -8.2 -8.2
Air Force Utah St. 0.1 4.0 -0.5
Eastern Michigan Massachusetts -11.4 -8.0 -12.8
Louisana-Monroe Arkansas St. -16.4 -18.6 -17.6
Arizona St. Washington 6.5 4.0 4.7
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) 19.1 19.1 18.5
Notre Dame Wake Forest 30.9 24.7 31.6
Syracuse Clemson -26.6 -25.4 -28.4
Mississippi St. Alabama -9.9 -11 -9.3
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. -16.6 -17.7 -17.4
Marshall Florida Int’l. 8.6 7.1 8.7
Rutgers Nebraska -11.2 -12.7 -12.4
Texas Tech Kansas St. 4.0 5.6 4.4
Indiana Michigan -19.5 -16.7 -20.3
Troy Georgia Southern -9.7 -11.1 -9.1
Rice Southern Miss. -6.4 -5.4 -7.3
Navy SMU 23.7 23.3 24.9
Nevada San Jose St. -0.1 1.1 -0.5
Texas St. Georgia St. 1.8 4.8 0.7
Vanderbilt Kentucky 1.0 1.7 3.0
Idaho Appalachian St. -20.4 -18.0 -21.1
South Florida Temple -12.5 -8.8 -12.1
Colorado St. UNLV 11.7 8.5 9.5
Houston Memphis 6.4 11.5 8.0
LSU Arkansas 7.8 10.2 8.7
Stanford Oregon 10.1 14.5 10.9
Missouri * BYU [3.2] [0.2] [1.5]
Cincinnati Tulsa 18.1 15.7 18.9
Baylor Oklahoma 3.8 3.3 3.5
Iowa Minnesota 8.5 12.4 9.8
Arizona Utah -11.6 -11.9 -11.9
Boise St. New Mexico 26.4 22.0 26.9
San Diego St. Wyoming 26.9 29.8 29.6
California Oregon St. 27.7 25.3 29.0
UCLA Washington St. 17.8 15.4 16.1
Hawaii Fresno St. 5.9 4.1 6.8
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 11 PiRate    
Texas A&M Western Carolina 29    
         
* Ongoing Strike of Missouri Football Team May Force Forfeiture Of This Game In Kansas City

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Appalachian St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Washington St. vs. San Diego St.
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Michigan vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Washington * ^ vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. California *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Arkansas St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Toledo
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. BYU
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Houston vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Oregon
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Akron * vs. UTEP
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten North Carolina St. vs. Rutgers
Independence SEC ACC Arkansas vs. Miami (Fla)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Navy vs. Virginia Tech
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Ohio * vs. Nevada *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Buffalo * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Colorado St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Kentucky
Belk ACC SEC Duke vs. Auburn
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 North Carolina vs. Michigan
Cotton Playoff Playoff Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
Orange Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. Ohio St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. USC
Ouback Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Florida
Sugar Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. LSU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Temple
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Mississippi St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Ole Miss
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Stanford vs. Alabama
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Washington qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

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November 13, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 15-19, 2011

“Are You Nuts?”

One of our loyal readers asked this question of us last week, when we had Texas A&M ranked number 11, even though the Aggies were 5-4.

 

The short answer to that question is, “probably,” but that is beside the point.  The PiRate Ratings are not rankings based on what a team has done to this point in the season.  Our ratings are 95% predictive; they are meant to indicate where a team is for the coming week’s games.

 

So, even though the future SEC member lost to drop to 5-5, Texas A&M remains at number 14 in the PiRate Ratings.

 

Let us take a look back at yesteryear to further explain how a team like A&M could still be ranked so highly.  We’ll set the time machine back to 1957.  The PiRate Ratings had not yet been created, since none of the PiRates had been created.

 

The team in question in 1957 is Illinois.  The Fighting Illini finished 4-5 that year (Big Ten teams only played nine games a year until the 1960’s and Ohio State still played nine games in 1969).

 

To say that Illinois faced a tough schedule is an understatement.  It was brutal.  The boys from Champaign-Urbana finished the season 4-5, yet some ratings that year gave them the merit they deserved and ranked them in their final ratings.  Even the AP had them rated in the top 20 after seven games, when their record was 3-4.

 

Coach Ray Eliot had some stars on that team, two of whom you may have heard about, because they are in the NFL Hall of Fame.  Linebacker Ray Nitschke became one of the best ever defenders in the NFL, as he led the great Green Bay Packer defenses to five NFL Championships.  Bobby Mitchell began his NFL career as the other back in the Cleveland Browns’ backfield (to Jim Brown).  He earned his Hall of Fame induction after he was traded to the Washington Redskins and was moved to flanker, where he was on the receiving end of hundreds of Sonny Jergensen passes.

 

Illinois opened the season against UCLA at the L. A. Coliseum.  Coach Red Sanders’ Bruins were picked to win the Pacific Coast Conference and go to the Rose Bowl.  They had already played Air Force and won 47-0.  Illinois gave UCLA a good game, but the Bruins prevailed 16-6 en route to an 8-2 season.

 

The following week, Illinois blew out Colgate 40-0.  At 1-1, the Illini ventured to Columbus, Ohio, to take on Ohio State.  The Buckeyes would emerge as the UPI National Champion, as Woody Hayes’ Scarlet and Gray epitomized his “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense that year, setting Ohio State rushing records.  Illinois fought hard and still had a chance to win late in the game, but Ohio State prevailed 21-7.

 

The Illini returned home the following week and hosted number four Minnesota.  The Gophers were 3-0, outscoring opponents 108 to 30.  Illinois played spectacularly and not only pulled off the upset, they slaughtered the Gophers 34-13.

 

Illinois entered the top 20 at number 16 the next week.  The following week, Illinois played at number eight Michigan State (who would finish the season at number two in the UPI Poll and number one in a couple of polls).  The Illini gave Sparty a great game, falling short 19-14 to fall to 2-3.

 

Next up was a visit from Purdue, the only team to beat Michigan State in 1957.  The Boilermakers had the best quarterback in the Big Ten and a future NFL Hall of Famer in Len Dawson.  Illinois fell 21-6, and their record was now 2-4.

 

The following week, Illinois pulled off another big upset, besting number 11 Michigan 20-19.  At 3-4, the Illini actually moved back into the top 20 at number 15.

 

Illinois could not catch a break, as they had to venture to Camp Randall Stadium to play rival Wisconsin, yet another team headed to a finish in the rankings, at number 14.  UW won 24-13, and Illinois was assured of a losing season.

 

The season ended with a visit from rival Northwestern, and Illinois wiped the Wildcats off the field with a 27-0 win to cap off what could have been the best season ever by a team with a losing record.

 

Back to 2011.  Texas A&M began the season with a blowout of SMU, a team that will be bowl bound this year.  They disposed of a weak Idaho team in week two.  In week three, they fell to current number two Oklahoma State 30-29 after blowing a 17-point lead.  They followed it up with a similar loss to current number six Arkansas, blowing a large lead before losing 42-38.  After a five-point win over Texas Tech, before the Red Raiders collapsed, A&M put a major whipping on Baylor by 27 points.  They won at Iowa State by 16 to move to 5-2.  The Aggies have lost three in a row since then, blowing yet another large lead to future SEC rival Missouri, losing to Oklahoma in a game where they proved to be good enough to compete if they had eliminated mistakes, and losing in four overtimes to Kansas State.

 

At 5-5, Texas A&M could easily be 9-1 with wins over Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Kansas State.  They finish with Kansas and Texas and could easily be 6-6 when the bowl are doled out.  They could be pitted against another 6-6 or 7-5 team in their bowl, and it very well may be a huge mismatch.

 

Congrats to Ron English

It went mostly unnoticed this week, but Eastern Michigan became bowl-eligible with a win over Buffalo.  The 6-4 Eagles were expected to win maybe two or three games this year, which would have been a major improvement in itself.  EMU was a combined 2-22 in 2009 and 2010.

 

Here are the PiRate Ratings For This Week

 

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

135.5

2

Alabama

135.0

3

Oregon

132.0

4

Oklahoma St.

131.6

5

Oklahoma

131.6

6

Stanford

129.6

7

Wisconsin

124.8

8

Southern Cal

123.9

9

Florida St.

122.6

10

Arkansas

121.9

11

Boise St.

120.2

12

Georgia 

119.8

13

Notre Dame

119.5

14

Texas A&M

119.3

15

Missouri

117.2

16

Michigan St.

116.4

17

Texas

115.8

18

Michigan

115.7

19

Nebraska

114.9

20

T C U

114.8

21

S. Carolina

114.7

22

Houston

114.5

23

Clemson

114.3

24

Utah

113.1

25

Virginia Tech

113.0

26

Arizona St.

112.8

27

Kansas St.

112.7

28

Miami (FL)

112.5

29

Florida 

112.3

30

Washington

110.7

31

Mississippi St.

110.5

32

California

110.0

33

Tulsa

108.7

34

Cincinnati

108.7

35

B Y U

108.4

36

Ohio St.

108.4

37

Vanderbilt

108.1

38

Southern Miss.

107.6

39

Penn St.

107.1

40

W. Virginia

107.0

41

Nevada

106.2

42

Georgia Tech

106.1

43

Baylor

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

104.6

45

U C L A

104.5

46

Iowa

103.9

47

Virginia

103.6

48

Auburn

103.6

49

Northwestern

103.3

50

N. Carolina

103.2

51

Wake Forest

103.2

52

Washington St.

102.8

53

LouisianaTech

102.8

54

S. Florida

102.7

55

N. Carolina St.

101.7

56

Oregon St.

101.7

57

Tennessee

101.6

58

Arizona

101.4

59

Illinois

101.3

60

Louisville

99.9

61

Purdue

99.3

62

Utah St.

99.3

63

Rutgers

99.1

64

Boston Coll.

98.9

65

Toledo

98.2

66

Iowa St.

98.2

67

Air Force

97.9

68

Temple

97.3

69

Northern Illinois

97.3

70

San Diego St.

97.2

71

Texas Tech

97.2

72

Central Florida

96.9

73

Navy

96.7

74

Hawaii

96.6

75

Duke

96.2

76

Wyoming

95.9

77

Connecticut

95.3

78

Colorado

95.3

79

S M U

94.3

80

Arkansas St.

93.5

81

Minnesota

93.3

82

Maryland

93.2

83

Western Michigan

93.1

84

San Jose St.

92.0

85

Syracuse

91.3

86

Miami (O)

91.1

87

Kentucky

91.1

88

Ole Miss

90.5

89

Kansas

90.3

90

East Carolina

90.1

91

Fresno St.

89.4

92

Ohio U

88.9

93

U T E P

88.4

94

Western Ky.

87.8

95

Florida Int’l

87.7

96

New Mexico St.

85.8

97

Marshall

85.8

98

Army

85.6

99

UL-Lafayette

85.4

100

UL-Monroe

85.4

101

Colorado St.

84.4

102

Rice

84.1

103

Idaho

83.8

104

Indiana

83.2

105

Bowling Green

82.5

106

Ball St.

82.2

107

Kent St.

81.2

108

Eastern Michigan

80.9

109

North Texas

80.1

110

U A B

78.2

111

U N L V

78.1

112

Central Michigan

77.7

113

Troy

75.8

114

Middle Tennessee

73.5

115

Buffalo

73.0

116

New Mexico

70.4

117

Tulane

67.7

118

Memphis

66.8

119

Akron

65.1

120

Florida Atlantic

63.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-2

7-3

122.6

Clemson

6-1

9-1

114.3

WakeForest

4-3

5-5

103.2

North CarolinaState

2-4

5-5

101.7

BostonCollege

2-5

3-7

98.9

Maryland

1-5

2-8

93.2

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

5-1

9-1

113.0

Miami-FL

3-4

5-5

112.5

Georgia Tech

4-3

7-3

106.1

Virginia

4-2

7-3

103.6

North Carolina

2-4

6-4

103.2

Duke

1-5

3-7

96.2

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

3-1

7-2

108.7

West Virginia

3-2

7-3

107.0

Pittsburgh

3-2

5-5

104.6

South Florida

1-4

5-4

102.7

Louisville

3-2

5-5

99.9

Rutgers

3-2

7-3

99.1

Connecticut

2-2

4-5

95.3

Syracuse

1-4

5-5

91.3

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

4-2

8-2

124.8

OhioState

3-3

6-4

108.4

PennState

5-1

8-2

107.1

Illinois

2-4

6-4

101.3

Purdue

3-3

5-5

99.3

Indiana

0-6

1-9

83.2

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

MichiganState

5-1

8-2

116.4

Michigan

4-2

8-2

115.7

Nebraska

4-2

8-2

114.9

Iowa

3-3

6-4

103.9

Northwestern

2-4

5-5

103.3

Minnesota

1-5

2-8

93.3

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma State

7-0

10-0

131.6

Oklahoma

5-1

8-1

131.6

Texas A&M

3-4

5-5

119.3

Missouri

3-4

5-5

117.2

Texas

3-3

6-3

115.8

Kansas State

5-2

8-2

112.7

Baylor

3-3

6-3

106.0

Iowa State

2-4

5-4

98.2

Texas Tech

2-5

5-5

97.2

Kansas

0-7

2-8

90.3

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

5-1

9-1

107.6

Central Florida

2-4

4-6

96.9

East Carolina

3-3

4-6

90.1

Marshall

3-3

4-6

85.8

U A B

2-5

2-8

78.2

Memphis

1-4

2-8

66.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

6-0

10-0

114.5

Tulsa

6-0

7-3

108.7

S M U

4-2

6-4

94.3

U T E P

2-4

5-5

88.4

Rice

2-4

3-7

84.1

Tulane

1-6

2-9

67.7

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

7-3

119.5

B Y U  

7-3

108.4

Navy  

4-6

96.7

Army  

3-7

85.6

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

4-3

6-4

97.3

Miami (O)

3-3

4-6

91.1

Ohio U

4-2

7-3

88.9

Bowling Green

2-4

4-6

82.5

Kent St.

3-3

4-6

81.2

Buffalo

1-5

2-8

73.0

Akron

0-6

1-9

65.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

5-1

6-4

98.2

Northern Illinois

5-1

7-3

97.3

Western Michigan

3-3

5-5

93.1

Ball State

4-2

6-4

82.2

Eastern Michigan

4-2

6-4

80.9

Central Michigan

2-5

3-8

77.7

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

3-1

8-1

120.2

T C U

5-0

8-2

114.8

Air Force

1-4

5-5

97.9

San Diego State

3-2

6-3

97.2

Wyoming

3-1

6-3

95.9

Colorado State

1-3

3-6

84.4

UNLV

1-3

2-7

78.1

New Mexico

1-4

1-9

70.4

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

7-0

9-1

132.0

Stanford

7-1

9-1

129.6

Washington

4-3

6-4

110.7

California

3-4

6-4

110.0

WashingtonState

2-5

4-6

102.8

OregonState

2-5

2-8

101.7

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

5-2

8-2

123.9

Utah

3-4

6-4

113.1

ArizonaState

4-3

6-4

112.8

U C L A

4-3

5-5

104.5

Arizona

1-6

2-8

101.4

Colorado

1-6

2-9

95.3

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

6-1

8-2

119.8

South Carolina

6-2

8-2

114.7

Florida

3-5

5-5

112.3

Vanderbilt

2-5

5-5

108.1

Tennessee

0-6

4-6

101.6

Kentucky

1-5

4-6

91.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

6-0

10-0

135.5

Alabama

6-1

9-1

135.0

Arkansas

5-1

9-1

121.9

Mississippi State

1-5

5-5

110.5

Auburn

4-3

6-4

103.6

Ole Miss

0-6

2-8

90.5

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arkansas State

6-0

8-2

93.5

Western Kentucky

5-1

5-5

87.8

Florida International

3-3

6-4

87.7

Louisiana-Monroe

2-4

3-7

85.9

U. of Louisiana

6-2

8-3

84.9

North Texas

3-3

4-6

80.1

Troy

1-4

2-7

75.8

Middle Tennessee

1-4

2-7

73.5

Florida Atlantic

0-6

0-9

63.2

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

4-0

6-3

106.2

Louisiana Tech

4-1

6-4

102.8

Utah State

2-2

4-5

99.3

Hawaii

3-3

5-5

96.6

San Jose State

2-4

3-7

92.0

Fresno State

2-3

3-7

89.4

New Mexico State

2-3

4-6

85.8

Idaho

1-4

2-8

83.8

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads.

 

Tuesday, November 15  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Ball St.

18.1

42-24

17   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 16  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MIAMI (O) Western Michigan

1.0

34-33

1   

Ohio U BOWLING GREEN

3.9

31-27

5   

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 17  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

VIRGINIA TECH North Carolina

13.3

23-10

13   

Marshall MEMPHIS

16.5

34-17

13   

Southern Miss. U A B

26.9

37-10

22 1/2

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 18  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Toledo CENTRAL MICHIGAN

18.0

45-27

15   

Oklahoma St. IOWA ST.

30.4

47-17

27 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 19  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

NORTHWESTERN Minnesota

13.0

34-21

15 1/2

Wisconsin ILLINOIS

20.5

38-17

13 1/2

Iowa PURDUE

1.6

28-26

2 1/2

MICHIGAN ST. Indiana

36.7

51-17

28   

Louisville CONNECTICUT

1.6

24-22

1   

Georgia Tech DUKE

7.4

31-24

10   

WAKE FOREST Maryland

12.5

30-17

12   

FLORIDA ST. Virginia

22.0

38-16

18   

Clemson NORTH CAROLINA ST.

9.6

27-17

10   

BUFFALO Akron

10.4

31-21

10   

GEORGIA Kentucky

32.2

42-10

29 1/2

Vanderbilt TENNESSEE

3.5

28-24

1   

MISSOURI Texas Tech

23.0

44-21

16 1/2

KENT ST. Eastern Michigan

2.8

31-28

6 1/2

TEMPLE Army

14.2

31-17

NL

WYOMING New Mexico

28.5

42-13

26   

B Y U New Mexico St.

25.6

45-19

22 1/2

Tulsa U T E P

17.3

41-24

NL

RICE Tulane

18.9

38-19

12 1/2

TEXAS A&M Kansas

32.0

49-17

30   

Utah WASHINGTON ST.

6.8

30-23

6   

L s u OLE MISS

42.0

45-3

30 1/2

T C U Colorado St.

33.4

40-7

35 1/2

Washington OREGON ST.

6.0

30-24

3   

ARIZONA ST. Arizona

13.9

31-17

14 1/2

STANFORD California

22.1

42-20

20 1/2

MICHIGAN Nebraska

3.8

24-20

2 1/2

U C L A Colorado

12.2

28-16

14   

Central Florida EAST CAROLINA

3.8

31-27

8   

OHIO ST. Penn St.

4.3

14-10

5 1/2

Cincinnati RUTGERS

6.6

31-24

1 1/2

TEXAS Kansas St.

6.1

34-28

7   

NOTRE DAME Boston College

23.6

34-10

24 1/2

Navy SAN JOSE ST.

1.7

26-24

5 1/2

NEVADA Louisiana Tech

6.9

35-28

7 1/2

Utah St. IDAHO

12.5

37-24

7   

AIR FORCE U n l v

22.8

33-10

NL

HOUSTON S m u

23.2

44-21

21 1/2

ARKANSAS Mississippi St.

14.4

31-17

14 1/2

Miami (FL) SOUTH FLORIDA

6.8

28-21

1 1/2

Oklahoma BAYLOR

22.6

42-19

14   

OREGON Southern Cal

11.6

31-19

16 1/2

Boise St. SAN DIEGO ST.

20.0

37-17

20   

HAWAII Fresno St.

11.2

35-24

4   

TROY Florida Atlantic

15.1

35-20

14 1/2

Western Kentucky NORTH TEXAS

4.7

28-23

2 1/2

LOUISIANA-MONROE Florida Int’l

0.7

28-27

-1   

Arkansas St. MIDDLETENNESSEE

18.5

31-12

11   

 

 

And, here is our Bowl speculation for the week.

 

Bowl

Conference

Conference

Team

Team

New Mexico

MWC # 5

Pac12 #7 / WAC

Wyoming

Nevada

Famous Idaho Potato

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

Boise St.

Utah St.

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

C-USA

Arkansas St.

(Louisville)

Beef O’Brady’s

Big East #6

C-USA

South Florida

Florida Int’l

Poinsettia

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

San Diego St.

Louisiana Tech

MAACO

MWC #1

Pac 12 #5

T C U

Utah

Hawaii

WAC

C-USA

Hawaii

S M U

Independence

ACC #7

MWC #3

Miami (Fl)

Air Force

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #8

MAC #2

Illinois

Toledo

Belk

ACC #5

Big East #3

North Carolina

West Va.

Military

ACC #8

Navy

Virginia

Navy

Holiday

Pac 12 #3

Big 12 #5

Arizona St.

Texas A&M

Champs Sports

Big East #2

ACC #3

Notre Dame

Florida St.

Alamo

Big 12 #3

Pac 10 #2

Kansas St.

Washington

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

B Y U

Marshall

B Y U

Pinstripe

Big East #4

Big 12 #7

Pittsburgh

(Northwestern)

Music City

SEC # 7

ACC #6

Mississippi St.

North Carolina St.

Insight

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #4 or 5

Missouri

Penn St.

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

Baylor

Ohio St.

Sun

ACC #4

Pac 12 #4

Georgia Tech

California

Kraft Fight Hunger

Pac 10 #6

Army/ACC

U C L A

Wake Forest

Liberty

SEC#8-9/BigEast

C-USA #1

Vanderbilt

Southern Miss.

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

ACC #2

Auburn

Clemson

TicketCity

Big 10 #7

C-USA

Iowa

Tulsa

Capital One

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

Michigan St.

Arkansas

Gator

Big 10 #4 or 5

SEC #6

Nebraska

Florida

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Big 10 #3

South Carolina

Michigan

Rose

BCS Pac12

BCS Big 10

Oregon

Wisconsin

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

BCS At-Large

Oklahoma

Stanford

Sugar

BCS SEC

BCS At-Large

Alabama

Houston

Orange

BCS ACC

BCS At-Large

Va. Tech

Rutgers

Cotton

Big 12 #2

SEC #3 or 4

Texas

Georgia

BBVA Compass

Big East#5/CUSA

SEC #8 or 9

Cincinnati

Western Ky.

GoDaddy.com

Sunbelt # 2

MAC #1

Louisiana-Laf.

Northern Illinois

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

*** BCS #2 ***

L S U

Oklahoma St.

 

November 7, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 8-12, 2011

The Conference Races & The Bowls

The Search For 70 Bowl Eligible Teams

 

With 35 bowls, the Football Bowl Subdivision needs 70 bowl-eligible teams to fill those spots.  Remember, we cannot include Southern Cal in that list, because they are ineligible for a bowl game this year.  Since there are only 120 total FBS schools, it requires a lot of teams to get to six wins by virtue of defeating a team from the Football Championship Subdivision, formerly known as I-AA.  There are only four more FBS versus FCS games this year, all involving teams from the SEC.  Three of those SEC teams are already bowl eligible, so only the Florida-Furman game can help an FBS team become bowl eligible. 

 

If there are fewer than 70 bowl eligible teams, the NCAA supposedly will allow teams with a losing record to earn bowl bids.  The last team with a losing record to earn a bowl bid was North Texas in 2001, but the Mean Green earned their bid by winning the Sunbelt Conference championship.  William and Mary won the Southern Conference title and earned the automatic bid to the Tangerine Bowl, even though they were just 5-6 overall.  SMU, at 4-6, was invited to the Sun Bowl in 1963.  Will it happen again in 2011?  Let’s look at the conference breakdown and count who we think will make it.

 

ACC

Atlantic

Clemson leads Florida State and Wake Forest by one full game.  The Tigers have already defeated the Seminoles, and if they defeat Wake Forest this weekend, they will wrap up a spot in the ACC Championship Game.  If the Demon Deacons win, then all three teams will be alive having gone 1-1 against each other.

 

Coastal

Virginia Tech leads Georgia Tech by a half-game and Virginia by a full game, and the Hokies must play both teams.  They face Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Thursday. 

 

Bowl Eligible (6)

Florida St., Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia

 

Bowl Probable (3)

North Carolina St., Wake Forest, and Miami need each need one more win and each have two winnable games left.

 

Big East

All eight teams are still in contention to be bowl eligible.  Cincinnati leads with a 3-0 conference record, while Louisville is a half game back at 3-1, losing to the Bearcats in October.  West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Connecticut have two conference losses.

 

This race is a mess, and we believe that five of the eight teams will end up bowl eligible.  Throw in Notre Dame, since the Irish will not earn a BCS Bowl Bid, and you have six bowl eligibles.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Cincinnati, Notre Dame, West Virginia, and Rutgers

 

Bowl Probable (2)

Louisville and Syracuse

 

The Cardinals and the Orangemen both have five wins.  UL can win all three of their remaining games, so it should be a slam dunk for Coach Charlie Strong’s club.  Syracuse and South Florida square off at the Carrier Dome Friday night, and the loser will probably be eliminated.

 

We believe Pittsburgh and Connecticut will both fall a game short, but both still have legitimate shots at getting to six wins.  As for South Florida, the Bulls must win at Syracuse this week, or we believe they are out of the picture.

 

Big Ten

The first year of the 12-team Big Ten has been a disappointment as no teams are in contention for the big prize, and the Rose Bowl participant will more than likely have two or even three losses.

 

Bowl Eligible (8)

Wisconsin, Ohio St., Penn St., Illinois, Michigan St., Nebraska, Michigan, and Iowa

 

Bowl Probable (1)

Northwestern

 

Northwestern has four wins, but their next two games are at home against Rice and Minnesota.  We believe they will win both to become bowl eligible.

 

Purdue is 4-5.  They must upset either Ohio State or Iowa and then beat Indiana to become bowl eligible.  We do not see the Boilermakers becoming Spoilermakers this year.

 

Big 12

Oklahoma State has moved up to number two in the BCS Ratings, as they passed Alabama. We here at the PiRate Ratings still have Oklahoma rated a bit higher than Oklahoma State, but the Sooners’ have lost a key piece to their offense.  The big game OU-OSU game comes on December 3 in Stillwater at Boone Pickens Stadium.  Tickets for that game may be more expensive than a dozen barrels of oil.  The Cowboys get an extra week to prepare for the game, so all factors are on their side.  We think it will be a great game, but losing Ryan Broyles for the season will be a major blow for OU.  We call this game a tossup as of today.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Kansas St., and Texas

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Texas A&M, Missouri, and Baylor

 

Texas A&M and Baylor need one more win, as does Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Missouri needs two more wins.

 

A&M has been a major disappointment, but the Aggies still have a home game with Kansas and should easily win that one to become bowl eligible.

 

Baylor plays at Kansas this week and faces Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium on November 26.  The Bears will be in a bowl.

 

Missouri, just officially announced as the SEC’s 14th team beginning next season, has a home game with Texas Tech and a season-ender with Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium.

 

Texas Tech fell apart after upsetting Oklahoma.  The Red Raiders finish with Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Baylor, and unless they pull off another big upset, they will stay home in December.

 

Iowa State needs one more win, but the Cyclones finish with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State.  The next big win in Ames may be won by Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, or Newt Gingrich at the Iowa Caucuses.

 

Conference USA

Houston has a very slim chance to get to a BCS Bowl, if the Cougars go 13-0 in the regular season.  They need Boise State to lose a game so they can be the highest-rated non automatic qualifying champion in the BCS Rankings.  They need Tulsa to be 8-3 and Southern Miss to be 11-1 when they face and beat them to end the regular season and win the conference championship game.  Then, they will still need for a couple top 10 teams to drop into the second 10.  It’s possible, but not probable, because it is going to be hard for anybody to knock off Boise State.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Houston, Southern Mississippi, Tulsa, and SMU

 

Bowl Probable (1)

Marshall

 

There are four teams with four wins, needing two more to become bowl eligible. However, with their schedules, we only believe one will get to six victories.

 

UTEP closes with East Carolina, Tulsa, and Central Florida.  The Miners’ easiest game prior to last week was against Rice, and the lost to the Owls.

 

Central Florida closes with Southern Miss, East Carolina, and UTEP.  Only the UTEP game is at home, and we cannot see UCF winning either road game.

 

East Carolina has a decent chance with games against UTEP, UCF, and Marshall, but only the UCF game is in Greenville.

 

Marshall should lose at Tulsa this weekend, but the Thundering Herd benefits from playing Memphis the following week before hosting East Carolina the week after.  They have the best chance at emerging with six wins.

 

Independents

We have already included Notre Dame in the Big East list because the Irish do not appear to be headed to a BCS Bowl.  They would have to win at Stanford and still need a lot of help.

 

Bowl Eligible (1)

Brigham Young

 

Bowl Probable (0)

This will open the door for two at-large bowl berths. Neither Army nor Navy appear to be headed to bowl eligibility.  Both are 3-6, so one is guaranteed to lose a seventh game when they face off on December 10.

 

Navy has tough games at SMU and San Jose State before taking on Army.  The Midshipmen have beaten Army 11 straight times, and it could be Army’s year to end that streak.

 

Army closes with Rutgers and Temple before taking on Navy.

 

Mid-American

Here is another muddled conference where 10 different teams have a chance to make it to the championship game.

 

In the East, Miami of Ohio has won three games in a row after a 1-5 start to move into a tie for first with Ohio.  Temple is a half game back, while Bowling Green and Kent State are one game back.

 

In the West, Northern Illinois and Toledo are tied at 4-1 in league play, but the Huskies own the tiebreak over the Rockets after winning their epic match 63-60.  Ball State, Western Michigan, and even Eastern Michigan are still mathematically alive.

 

Bowl Eligible (3)

Ohio, Northern Illinois, and Ball State

 

Bowl Probable (5)

Toledo, Temple, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Bowling Green

 

As many as three of these probable teams could be 6-6 and would serve as the last line of teams available for at-large bids.

 

Mountain West

Boise State is number five in the BCS rankings, and the Broncos will need help from several other teams to make it to the National Championship Game.  Oklahoma State and Stanford must lose, and Alabama may have to lose again or LSU may have to lose.

 

The funny thing about the Broncos this year is that we feel this is their weakest team in the last four years!  Their run defense is not as forceful as it has been the last five years, and Boise will have a tough time winning out with TCU, San Diego State, and Wyoming still to play.

 

Bowl Eligible (2)

Boise State and TCU

 

Bowl Probable (3)

San Diego State, Wyoming, and Air Force

 

All three teams need just one more win for bowl eligibility, and all three have two patsies on their schedules.  So, all three should have at least seven wins, and one team should get to eight.

 

However, with Boise State likely headed to a BCS Bowl (not the National Championship Game), the MWC will need six bowl eligible teams and will come up one short.

 

Pac-12

Stanford still has national title aspirations, and they will need to beat Oregon handily this week and then close with convincing wins over Cal and Notre Dame.  If the Cardinal can beat the Ducks by two touchdowns, it will at least establish a comparison with LSU.  LSU beat Oregon by 13 in the season opener.  Remember, Stanford has been hit hard by injuries to their receiving corps, while Oregon is coming into their Saturday game near full strength.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona State

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Utah, UCLA, and California

 

These three teams each need one more win to get to six and all three have really good shots at doing so.

 

Utah’s schedule gives them a chance to win out.  The Utes host UCLA, then go to fast-falling Washington State, before closing at home against Colorado.

 

UCLA has a home game with Colorado, and that alone will get them to six victories.  Road games at Utah and USC do not look promising, but if they win both, they will play in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

California should become bowl eligible this weekend when they host Oregon State.

 

Southeastern

11 of the 12 teams are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, and at least nine teams will get there.  The big news is that Alabama stayed in second place in the BCS rankings.  If they win out, they will be in the National Championship Game.

 

LSU has a tough home game with Arkansas, but the Tigers should run the table and meet Alabama in New Orleans for the National Championship.

 

Bowl Eligible (6)

LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, and South Carolina

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Florida, Mississippi State, and Tennessee

 

Florida needs one more win and has a game with Furman, so the Gators are in.

 

Mississippi State needs one more win and should get it in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss.

 

Tennessee, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are 4-5 and need two more wins.  All three must play the other two and all three will probably lose their other game, which in all three cases come on the road against teams with winning records.  Because Tennessee has a long history of beating the other two, we will go with the Volunteers to beat Vanderbilt and Kentucky and become the ninth bowl eligible SEC team.

 

If both LSU and Alabama advance to the title game, the SEC will need 11 bowl eligible teams, so there could be two and even three at-large spots available for other teams.  If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, then the Tide and Tigers could play again.

 

Sunbelt

No SBC team has won 10 regular season games, but it could happen this year.  If Arkansas State defeats Louisiana (UL-Lafayette for those that do not realize the Ragin’ Cajuns call themselves “the University of Louisiana” these days), the Red Wolves will win out and go 10-2.

 

This league has benefitted from the at-large bowl bid in recent years, and it should be another season of getting at least one extra team in a bowl.

 

Bowl Eligible (2)

Arkansas State and U. of Louisiana

 

Bowl Probable (2)

Florida International and Western Kentucky

 

After starting 0-4, Western Kentucky has reeled off five straight wins, but that streak will come to a crashing halt this week.  The Hilltoppers play at LSU.

 

WAC

Two thirds through the season, no WAC team has become bowl eligible as of yet.  This league has four bowl allotments, and only three teams have five wins (no other team has even four yet).  To make matters worse, some teams will need seven wins to become eligible, because they play 13 regular season games.

 

Bowl Eligible (0)

 

Bowl Probable (4)

Nevada, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, and Utah State

 

Nevada and Louisiana Tech face off in Reno on November 19, and the winner of that game will be the conference champion, while the loser will still become bowl eligible.

 

Hawaii has home games with an subpar Fresno State team and an inept Tulane team, so the Warriors will get their needed seven wins.

 

Utah State is a stretch, but we believe the Aggies have what it takes to win out including pulling off an upset over Nevada in Logan a week after the Wolf Pack beats Louisiana Tech.

 

Total Bowl Eligible as of November 7, 2011—44

 

Total Bowl Probable as of November 7, 2011—30

 

As of today, we see about 74 bowl eligible teams fighting for 70 bowl spots.  See our bowl possibilities at the end of this post.

 

Here is this week’s list of teams ranked from 1 to 120.

 

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

137.3

2

Alabama

136.9

3

Stanford

133.7

4

Oklahoma

131.5

5

Oregon

128.7

6

Oklahoma St.

127.4

7

Wisconsin

124.6

8

Florida St.

124.0

9

Boise St.

123.8

10

Southern Cal

122.2

11

TexasA&M

121.3

12

Notre Dame

119.4

13

Arkansas

118.1

14

Texas

117.1

15

Arizona St.

116.8

16

Missouri

115.8

17

Clemson

115.7

18

Georgia 

115.2

19

Nebraska

115.0

20

S. Carolina

114.6

21

Michigan

114.5

22

Michigan St.

114.1

23

Florida 

112.6

24

Washington

112.5

25

Houston

112.4

26

T C U

111.9

27

Utah

111.7

28

Virginia Tech

111.6

29

Miami(FL)

111.1

30

Kansas St.

110.3

31

Mississippi St.

110.0

32

Cincinnati

109.7

33

Ohio St.

109.6

34

Baylor

108.3

35

California

108.2

36

Southern Miss.

107.8

37

Georgia Tech

107.4

38

Auburn

107.4

39

Penn St.

107.0

40

U C L A

106.8

41

Vanderbilt

106.5

42

Iowa

106.0

43

W. Virginia

106.0

44

Arizona

106.0

45

Nevada

105.9

46

Tulsa

105.8

47

B Y U

105.5

48

Tennessee

104.4

49

Pittsburgh

103.8

50

Oregon St.

103.4

51

TexasTech

103.2

52

Northwestern

103.2

53

N. Carolina

103.2

54

Virginia

103.0

55

N. Carolina St.

102.5

56

Illinois

102.4

57

WakeForest

101.8

58

S. Florida

101.2

59

Air Force

100.8

60

Louisville

100.7

61

Utah St.

99.9

62

Washington St.

99.8

63

LouisianaTech

99.6

64

Toledo

99.0

65

Rutgers

98.9

66

San Diego St.

98.7

67

Iowa St.

98.2

68

BostonColl.

98.1

69

Temple

98.0

70

Purdue

97.5

71

Hawaii

96.9

72

S M U

96.5

73

Duke

96.3

74

Central Florida

96.1

75

Connecticut

95.3

76

Northern Illinois

95.0

77

Navy

94.4

78

Ole Miss

93.9

79

Minnesota

93.8

80

Maryland

93.6

81

Arkansas St.

93.0

82

Syracuse

93.0

83

Kentucky

92.8

84

Western Michigan

92.3

85

Wyoming

92.2

86

Colorado

92.0

87

East Carolina

91.7

88

Fresno St.

91.0

89

San Jose St.

90.9

90

Miami(O)

90.4

91

Marshall

88.3

92

OhioU

88.2

93

Kansas

88.0

94

U T E P

86.7

95

Idaho

86.7

96

Army

85.9

97

FloridaInt’l

85.8

98

UL-Lafayette

84.9

99

Bowling Green

84.7

100

WesternKy.

84.5

101

New Mexico St.

84.2

102

Rice

84.2

103

UL-Monroe

83.6

104

Indiana

83.2

105

Colorado St.

82.9

106

Ball St.

82.2

107

U N L V

82.2

108

Eastern Michigan

80.2

109

North Texas

79.6

110

Central Michigan

78.4

111

U A B

78.4

112

Kent St.

78.3

113

Troy

76.3

114

MiddleTennessee

76.2

115

Buffalo

73.5

116

Tulane

69.7

117

Akron

67.7

118

New Mexico

67.4

119

Memphis

66.9

120

FloridaAtlantic

65.6

 

The PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

4-2

6-3

124.0

Clemson

5-1

8-1

115.7

North CarolinaState

2-3

5-4

102.5

WakeForest

4-2

5-4

101.8

BostonCollege

1-5

2-7

98.1

Maryland

1-5

2-7

93.6

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

4-1

8-1

111.6

Miami-FL

3-3

5-4

111.1

Georgia Tech

4-2

7-2

107.4

North Carolina

2-4

6-4

103.2

Virginia

3-2

6-3

103.0

Duke

1-4

3-6

96.3

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

3-0

7-1

109.7

West Virginia

2-2

6-3

106.0

Pittsburgh

2-2

4-5

103.8

South Florida

0-4

4-4

101.2

Louisville

3-1

5-4

100.7

Rutgers

3-2

6-3

98.9

Connecticut

2-2

4-5

95.3

Syracuse

1-3

5-4

93.0

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

3-2

7-2

124.6

OhioState

3-2

6-3

109.6

PennState

5-0

8-1

107.0

Illinois

2-3

6-3

102.4

Purdue

2-3

4-5

97.5

Indiana

0-6

1-9

83.2

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

3-2

7-2

115.0

Michigan

3-2

7-2

114.5

MichiganState

4-1

7-2

114.1

Iowa

3-2

6-3

106.0

Northwestern

2-4

4-5

103.2

Minnesota

1-4

2-7

93.8

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

5-1

8-1

131.5

OklahomaState

6-0

9-0

127.4

TexasA&M

3-3

5-4

121.3

Texas

3-2

6-2

117.1

Missouri

2-4

4-5

115.8

KansasState

4-2

7-2

110.3

Baylor

2-3

5-3

108.3

TexasTech

2-4

5-4

103.2

IowaState

2-4

5-4

98.2

Kansas

0-6

2-7

88.0

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

4-1

8-1

107.8

Central Florida

2-3

4-5

96.1

East Carolina

3-2

4-5

91.7

Marshall

3-2

4-5

88.3

U A B

1-5

1-8

78.4

Memphis

1-3

2-7

66.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

5-0

9-0

112.4

Tulsa

5-0

6-3

105.8

S M U

4-2

6-3

96.5

U T E P

1-4

4-5

86.7

Rice

2-4

3-6

84.2

Tulane

1-5

2-8

69.7

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

6-3

119.4

B Y U  

6-3

105.5

Navy  

3-6

94.4

Army  

3-6

85.9

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-3

5-4

98.0

Miami(O)

3-2

4-5

90.4

OhioU

3-2

6-3

88.2

Bowling Green

2-3

4-5

84.7

Kent St.

2-3

3-6

78.3

Buffalo

1-4

2-7

73.5

Akron

0-5

1-8

67.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

4-1

5-4

99.0

Northern Illinois

4-1

6-3

95.0

Western Michigan

3-2

5-4

92.3

BallState

4-2

6-4

82.2

Eastern Michigan

3-2

5-4

80.2

Central Michigan

2-4

3-7

78.4

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

3-0

8-0

123.8

T C U

4-0

7-2

111.9

Air Force

1-3

5-4

100.8

San DiegoState

2-2

5-3

98.7

Wyoming

2-1

5-3

92.2

ColoradoState

1-2

3-5

82.9

UNLV

1-2

2-6

82.2

New Mexico

0-4

0-9

67.4

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

7-0

9-0

133.7

Oregon

6-0

8-1

128.7

Washington

4-2

6-3

112.5

California

2-4

5-4

108.2

OregonState

2-4

2-7

103.4

WashingtonState

1-5

3-6

99.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

4-2

7-2

122.2

ArizonaState

4-2

6-3

116.8

Utah

2-4

5-4

111.7

U C L A

4-2

5-4

106.8

Arizona

1-5

2-7

106.0

Colorado

0-6

1-9

92.0

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

5-1

7-2

115.2

South Carolina

5-2

7-2

114.6

Florida

3-4

5-4

112.6

Vanderbilt

1-5

4-5

106.5

Tennessee

0-5

4-5

104.4

Kentucky

1-4

4-5

92.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

6-0

9-0

137.3

Alabama

5-1

8-1

136.9

Arkansas

4-1

8-1

118.1

MississippiState

1-4

5-4

110.0

Auburn

4-2

6-3

107.4

Ole Miss

0-6

2-7

93.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

5-0

7-2

93.0

FloridaInternational

2-3

5-4

85.8

U.ofLouisiana

6-1

8-2

84.9

Western Kentucky

5-1

5-4

84.5

Louisiana-Monroe

1-4

2-7

83.6

North Texas

2-3

3-6

79.6

Troy

1-3

2-6

76.3

MiddleTennessee

1-3

2-6

76.2

FloridaAtlantic

0-5

0-8

65.6

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

3-0

5-3

105.9

UtahState

1-2

3-5

99.9

LouisianaTech

4-1

5-4

99.6

Hawaii

3-2

5-4

96.9

FresnoState

2-2

3-6

91.0

San JoseState

2-3

3-6

90.9

New MexicoState

1-3

3-6

84.2

Idaho

1-4

2-7

86.7

 

 

Here are the PiRate spreads for this week’s games.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

TOLEDO Western Michigan

9.7

38-28

10   

Northern Illinois BOWLING GREEN

7.3

35-28

7   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

TEMPLE Miami (O)

10.1

27-17

13   

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Ohio U CENTRAL MICHIGAN

7.3

27-20

5   

Houston TULANE

40.2

50-10

33   

Virginia Tech GEORGIA TECH

1.2

26-25

-1   

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 4  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

South Florida SYRACUSE

4.7

28-23

4   

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 5  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Pittsburgh LOUISVILLE

0.1

27-27 to ot

-3   

Ohio St. PURDUE

9.1

35-26

8   

Michigan ILLINOIS

9.1

30-21

3   

NORTHWESTERN Rice

22.0

45-23

15 1/2

VANDERBILT Kentucky

16.2

35-19

13   

CLEMSON Wake Forest

16.9

34-17

19 1/2

VIRGINIA Duke

9.7

34-24

8 1/2

North Carolina St. BOSTON COLLEGE

1.4

17-16

2   

EASTERN MICHIGAN Buffalo

9.2

33-24

2 1/2

Texas A&M KANSAS ST.

8.0

42-34

3   

Kent St. AKRON

8.1

28-20

6 1/2

Baylor KANSAS

17.3

38-21

17 1/2

AIR FORCE Wyoming

11.6

33-21

14   

B Y U Idaho

22.3

38-16

19 1/2

S M U Navy

5.1

35-30

6 1/2

UTAH ST. San Jose St.

12.0

38-26

11   

TULSA Marshall

20.5

38-17

16   

BOISE ST. T c u

14.9

38-23

15 1/2

FLORIDA ST. Miami (Fla)

15.4

31-16

10   

CINCINNATI West Virginia

6.7

31-24

3 1/2

Rutgers  (n) Army

13.0

27-12

8 1/2

MISSOURI Texas

1.7

38-36

-1 1/2

Nebraska PENN ST.

4.5

26-21

3   

Oklahoma St. TEXAS TECH

21.2

49-28

18   

Michigan St. IOWA

5.1

21-16

3   

ARKANSAS Tennessee

16.7

27-10

NL

SOUTH CAROLINA Florida

5.0

24-19

NL

SOUTHERN CAL Washington

13.2

34-21

13 1/2

GEORGIA Auburn

10.3

31-21

12 1/2

CALIFORNIA Oregon St.

7.8

28-20

9 1/2

STANFORD Oregon

8.0

38-30

3   

NEVADA Hawaii

12.5

34-21

10   

U a b MEMPHIS

9.0

23-14

7 1/2

San Diego St. COLORADO ST.

13.3

30-17

14 1/2

Alabama MISSISSIPPI ST.

23.9

34-10

18 1/2

Arizona St. WASHINGTON ST.

14.0

35-21

12 1/2

Louisiana Tech OLE MISS

2.7

27-24

-1   

Wisconsin MINNESOTA

27.8

49-21

28 1/2

Notre Dame  (n) Maryland

24.8

38-13

19   

Fresno St. NEW MEXICO ST.

4.3

31-27

NL

UTAH U c l a

7.9

27-19

7 1/2

SOUTHERN MISS. Central Florida

14.7

35-20

10   

East Carolina U T E P

2.5

31-28

-3 1/2

Arizona COLORADO

11.0

28-17

13 1/2

U n l v NEW MEXICO

12.3

28-16

8 1/2

ARKANSAS ST. Louisiana-Lafayette

11.1

38-27

9 1/2

North Texas TROY

0.8

27-26

NL

LOUISIANA-MONROE Middle Tennessee

11.2

28-17

5 1/2

FLORIDA INT’L Florida Atlantic

22.7

33-10

18 1/2

L S U Western Kentucky

56.3

56-0

41   

 

 

Bowl Speculation

(Team) means at-large selection.  The MAC and Sunbelt Get Them All!

 

Bowl

Conference

Conference

Team

Team

New Mexico

MWC # 5

Pac12 #7 / WAC

(Toledo)

Louisiana Tech

Famous Idaho Potato

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

Wyoming

Nevada

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

C-USA

Arkansas St.

(Ball St.)

Beef O’Brady’s

Big East #6

C-USA

Syracuse

Marshall

Poinsettia

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

San Diego St.

Utah St.

MAACO

MWC #1

Pac 12 #5

T C U

U C L A

Hawaii

WAC

C-USA

Hawaii

Southern Miss.

Independence

ACC #7

MWC #3

Miami (Fl)

Air Force

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #8

MAC #2

Illinois

Ohio U

Belk

ACC #5

Big East #3

North Carolina

West Virginia

Military

ACC #8

Navy

Virginia

(Temple)

Holiday

Pac 12 #3

Big 12 #5

Utah

Missouri

Champs Sports

Big East #2

ACC #3

Notre Dame

Clemson

Alamo

Big 12 #3

Pac 10 #2

Kansas St.

Arizona St.

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

B Y U

Tulsa

B Y U

Pinstripe

Big East #4

Big 12 #7

Rutgers

(Florida Int’l)

Music City

SEC # 7

ACC #6

Tennessee

North Carolina St.

Insight

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #4 or 5

Texas A&M

Ohio St.

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

Baylor

Michigan

Sun

ACC #4

Pac 12 #4

Virginia Tech

Washington

Kraft Fight Hunger

Pac 10 #6

Army/ACC

California

Wake Forest

Liberty

SEC#8-9/BigEast

C-USA #1

Mississippi St.

Houston

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

ACC #2

Auburn

Florida State

TicketCity

Big 10 #7

C-USA

Iowa

S M U

Capital One

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

Wisconsin

Georgia

Gator

Big 10 #4 or 5

SEC #6

Nebraska

Florida

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Big 10 #3

South Carolina

Michigan St.

Rose

BCS Pac12

BCS Big 10

Stanford

Penn St.

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

BCS At-Large

Oklahoma

Oregon

Sugar

BCS SEC

BCS At-Large

Alabama

Boise St.

Orange

BCS ACC

BCS At-Large

Georgia Tech

Cincinnati

Cotton

Big 12 #2

SEC #3 or 4

Texas

Arkansas

BBVA Compass

Big East#5/CUSA

SEC #8 or 9

Louisville

(Western Ky.)

GoDaddy.com

Sunbelt # 2

MAC #1

Louisiana-Laf.

Northern Illinois

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

*** BCS #2 ***

L S U

Oklahoma St.

 

 

October 31, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 1-5, 2011

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:57 am

1 vs. 2

Are you ready for the newest Game of the Century?  Here is a breakdown of this special game.

 

L S U (5-0 SEC  8-0 Overall #1 in nation) vs. Alabama (5-0 SEC  8-0 Overall #2 in Nation)

 

Site: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL  Capacity: 101,820

 

Television: Saturday, November 5, 2011 CBS 8:00 PM EDT

 

L S U

Oregon (N)                 40-27

Northwestern St.       49-  3

@ Mississippi St.        19-  6

@ West Virginia        47-21

Kentucky                    35-  7

Florida                        41-11

@ Tennessee              38-  7

Auburn                      45-10

 

Stat Box

Stat                             LSU                Opp

Pts                               39.3                 11.5

FD                               20.8                 14.5

Rushing                      189.0               76.6

Rush Avg.                  4.3                   2.5

Real Rush *               194.1               92.3

Real Rush Avg. *      4.5                   3.3

Passing Yds.               183.1               174.8

Pass Yds/Att.             8.3                   5.4

Real Passing Yds. *   178.0               159.1

QB Sacks Allowed     7-41                 19-125

Interception %          0.6                   4.3

Total Offense             372.1               251.4

Punts                          43.9/Net 41.1 

PAT                            38-40

FG                               10-12 (44 LG)

Kick Return               23.8                 19.8

Punt Return               8.0                   0.6

TO Margin                 +15

Red Zone total           39                    16

RZ TD                        31                      9

RZ FG                          7                      6

 

* Using NFL rules where sacks count against passing yardage

Alabama

Kent St.                      48-  7

@ Penn St.                 27-11

North Texas               41-  0

Arkansas                    38-14

@ Florida                   38-10

Vanderbilt                  34-  0

@ Ole Miss                 52-  7

Tennessee                   37-  6

 

Stat Box

Stat                             Ala                  Opp

Pts                               39.4                   6.9

FD                               21.9                   9.9

Rushing                      229.3               44.9

Rush Avg.                  5.8                   1.7

Real Rush *               238.3               59.8

Real Rush Avg. *      6.3                   2.4

Passing Yds.               228.4               135.6

Pass Yds/Att.             8.0                   4.5

Real Passing Yds. *   219.4               120.8

QB Sacks Allowed     12-72               17-119

Interception %          2.2                   3.7

Total Offense             457.6               180.5

Punts                          39.0/36.4 Net 

PAT                            39-40

FG                               12-16 (45 LG)

Kick Return               23.5

Punt Return               12.7

TO Margin                 +6

Red Zone total           41                    9

RZ TD                        24                    5

RZ FG                        11                    1

 

* Using NFL rules where sacks count against passing yardage

 

 

PiRate Ratings

Alabama                     138.1  #1

L S U                          136.1  #2

 

Alabama Home-field Advantage for this game: 3 pts

 

PiRate Spread           Alabama 5.0

PiRate Score              Alabama 21  L S U 16

 

100 Computer Simulations

Wins: Alabama 54  L S U 46

Avg. Score: Alabama 18.76  L S U 16.36

Outlier A: Alabama 31  L S U 10

Outlier B: L S U 24  Alabama 10

Average Spread: 7.48 points

Spread Deviation: 4.64

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

138.1

2

L S U

136.1

3

Stanford

134.0

4

Oklahoma

132.0

5

Oklahoma St.

130.6

6

Oregon

128.1

7

Boise St.

126.9

8

Southern Cal

122.4

9

Florida St.

122.4

10

Notre Dame

122.1

11

Wisconsin

121.8

12

TexasA&M

120.8

13

Arizona St.

119.1

14

Missouri

118.6

15

Nebraska

118.5

16

Michigan

117.1

17

S. Carolina

116.9

18

Arkansas

116.5

19

Michigan St.

116.3

20

Clemson

115.7

21

Texas

114.3

22

Georgia 

113.9

23

Ohio St.

113.4

24

Washington

113.1

25

Florida 

112.9

26

T C U

112.1

27

Virginia Tech

111.6

28

Houston

109.6

29

Cincinnati

109.5

30

Mississippi St.

109.5

31

W. Virginia

109.3

32

Utah

109.2

33

Miami(FL)

108.9

34

Arizona

108.3

35

Southern Miss.

107.5

36

Auburn

107.4

37

Georgia Tech

107.4

38

Penn St.

107.0

39

Kansas St.

106.8

40

TexasTech

106.3

41

Nevada

105.9

42

Vanderbilt

105.9

43

N. Carolina

105.8

44

Tulsa

105.7

45

Baylor

105.5

46

B Y U

105.5

47

California

105.4

48

Tennessee

105.1

49

U C L A

104.2

50

Pittsburgh

104.0

51

Iowa

103.7

52

Oregon St.

103.1

53

Air Force

102.6

54

Illinois

102.4

55

Washington St.

102.3

56

S. Florida

101.3

57

Iowa St.

101.0

58

Purdue

100.6

59

Toledo

100.6

60

Temple

100.3

61

Northwestern

100.0

62

BostonColl.

99.7

63

Virginia

99.5

64

WakeForest

99.4

65

N. Carolina St.

99.4

66

San Diego St.

99.3

67

Rutgers

98.8

68

Duke

98.7

69

Utah St.

98.7

70

Hawaii

98.4

71

Louisville

97.7

72

S M U

97.5

73

Ole Miss

97.0

74

Maryland

96.8

75

LouisianaTech

96.4

76

Central Florida

96.2

77

Syracuse

94.3

78

Connecticut

94.3

79

Arkansas St.

93.8

80

Fresno St.

93.7

81

Northern Illinois

93.4

82

San Jose St.

93.4

83

Western Michigan

92.3

84

Wyoming

92.0

85

East Carolina

92.0

86

Navy

91.8

87

Colorado

91.8

88

Minnesota

90.1

89

Kentucky

90.0

90

Miami(O)

89.3

91

Marshall

88.3

92

U T E P

87.5

93

FloridaInt’l

86.0

94

OhioU

85.9

95

New Mexico St.

85.5

96

UL-Lafayette

85.2

97

Kansas

85.2

98

Bowling Green

84.7

99

Army

84.6

100

WesternKy.

84.3

101

Idaho

84.2

102

Rice

83.4

103

UL-Monroe

83.3

104

Colorado St.

82.9

105

Ball St.

81.5

106

U A B

81.2

107

Eastern Michigan

80.9

108

Indiana

80.4

109

North Texas

79.6

110

U N L V

79.4

111

Troy

78.9

112

Central Michigan

78.7

113

Kent St.

78.0

114

MiddleTennessee

75.5

115

Buffalo

73.5

116

Tulane

69.2

117

Akron

68.8

118

Memphis

66.9

119

New Mexico

66.8

120

FloridaAtlantic

64.8

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

3-2

5-3

122.4

Clemson

5-1

8-1

115.7

BostonCollege

1-4

2-6

99.7

WakeForest

4-2

5-3

99.4

North CarolinaState

1-3

4-4

99.4

Maryland

1-4

2-6

96.8

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

4-1

8-1

111.6

Miami-FL

2-3

4-4

108.9

Georgia Tech

4-2

7-2

107.4

North Carolina

2-3

6-3

105.8

Virginia

2-2

5-3

99.5

Duke

1-3

3-5

98.7

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

2-0

6-1

109.5

West Virginia

2-1

6-2

109.3

Pittsburgh

2-1

4-4

104.0

South Florida

0-3

4-3

101.3

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

98.8

Louisville

2-1

4-4

97.7

Syracuse

1-2

5-3

94.3

Connecticut

1-2

3-5

94.3

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

2-2

6-2

121.8

OhioState

2-2

5-3

113.4

PennState

5-0

8-1

107.0

Illinois

2-3

6-3

102.4

Purdue

2-2

4-4

100.6

Indiana

0-5

1-8

80.4

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

3-1

7-1

118.5

Michigan

3-1

7-1

117.1

MichiganState

3-1

6-2

116.3

Iowa

2-2

5-3

103.7

Northwestern

1-4

3-5

100.0

Minnesota

1-3

2-6

90.1

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

4-1

7-1

132.0

OklahomaState

5-0

8-0

130.6

TexasA&M

3-2

5-3

120.8

Missouri

2-3

4-4

118.6

Texas

2-2

5-2

114.3

KansasState

4-1

7-1

106.8

TexasTech

2-3

5-3

106.3

Baylor

1-3

4-3

105.5

IowaState

1-4

4-4

101.0

Kansas

0-5

2-6

85.2

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

3-1

7-1

107.5

Central Florida

2-2

4-4

96.2

East Carolina

3-1

4-4

92.0

Marshall

3-2

4-5

88.3

U A B

1-4

1-7

81.2

Memphis

1-3

2-7

66.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

4-0

8-0

109.6

Tulsa

4-0

5-3

105.7

S M U

3-2

5-3

97.5

U T E P

1-3

4-4

87.5

Rice

1-4

2-6

83.4

Tulane

1-4

2-7

69.2

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

5-3

122.1

B Y U  

6-3

105.5

Navy  

2-6

91.8

Army  

3-5

84.6

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-2

5-3

100.3

Miami(O)

2-2

3-5

89.3

OhioU

2-2

5-3

85.9

Bowling Green

2-3

4-5

84.7

Kent St.

1-3

2-6

78.0

Buffalo

1-4

2-7

73.5

Akron

0-4

1-7

68.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

4-0

5-3

100.6

Northern Illinois

3-1

5-3

93.4

Western Michigan

3-2

5-4

92.3

BallState

3-2

5-4

81.5

Eastern Michigan

3-1

5-3

80.9

Central Michigan

2-3

3-6

78.7

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

2-0

7-0

126.9

T C U

3-0

6-2

112.1

Air Force

1-3

4-4

102.6

San DiegoState

1-2

4-3

99.3

Wyoming

2-0

5-2

92.0

ColoradoState

1-2

3-5

82.9

UNLV

1-1

2-5

79.4

New Mexico

0-3

0-8

66.8

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

6-0

8-0

134.0

Oregon

5-0

7-1

128.1

Washington

4-1

6-2

113.1

California

1-4

4-4

105.4

OregonState

2-3

2-6

103.1

WashingtonState

1-4

3-5

102.3

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

3-2

6-2

122.4

ArizonaState

4-1

6-2

119.1

Utah

1-4

4-4

109.2

Arizona

1-4

2-6

108.3

U C L A

3-2

4-4

104.2

Colorado

0-5

1-8

91.8

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

5-1

7-1

116.9

Georgia

5-1

6-2

113.9

Florida

2-4

4-4

112.9

Vanderbilt

1-4

4-4

105.9

Tennessee

0-5

3-5

105.1

Kentucky

0-4

3-5

90.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

5-0

8-0

138.1

L S U

5-0

8-0

136.1

Arkansas

3-1

7-1

116.5

MississippiState

1-4

4-4

109.5

Auburn

4-2

6-3

107.4

Ole Miss

0-5

2-6

97.0

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

4-0

6-2

93.8

FloridaInternational

2-2

5-3

86.0

U.ofLouisiana

5-1

7-2

85.2

Western Kentucky

4-1

4-4

84.3

Louisiana-Monroe

1-3

2-6

83.3

North Texas

2-3

3-6

79.6

Troy

1-3

2-5

78.9

MiddleTennessee

1-3

2-5

75.5

FloridaAtlantic

0-4

0-7

64.8

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

3-0

5-3

105.9

UtahState

0-2

2-5

98.7

Hawaii

3-1

5-3

98.4

LouisianaTech

3-1

4-4

96.4

FresnoState

2-1

3-5

93.7

San JoseState

2-2

3-5

93.4

New MexicoState

1-3

3-5

85.5

Idaho

0-4

1-7

84.2

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

TOLEDO Northern Illinois

10.2

38-28

7   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Temple OHIOU

11.4

28-17

5   

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MIAMI(O) Akron

23.0

35-12

16 1/2

Florida St. BOSTONCOLLEGE

19.7

34-14

14 1/2

Tulsa CENTRAL FLORIDA

6.5

34-27

-3   

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 4  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

KENT ST. Central Michigan

1.8

23-21

-1   

Southern Cal COLORADO

27.6

41-13

22   

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 5  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

WEST VIRGINIA Louisville

14.6

35-20

14   

EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball St.

1.9

26-24

-3 1/2

Ole Miss KENTUCKY

4.0

24-20

2 1/2

GEORGIA New Mexico St.

32.9

47-14

37   

RUTGERS South Florida

0.5

28-27

-1   

Virginia MARYLAND

0.2

26-26 to ot

-2 1/2

CONNECTICUT Syracuse

2.5

24-21

3 1/2

MIAMI(FL) Duke

13.2

30-17

16 1/2

MICHIGAN ST. Minnesota

29.2

42-13

28   

WISCONSIN Purdue

24.2

41-17

26 1/2

OHIO ST. Indiana

36.0

42-6

29   

FLORIDA Vanderbilt

10.5

27-16

11   

IOWA ST. Kansas

18.8

35-16

13 1/2

NEBRASKA Northwestern

22.5

44-21

19   

T c u WYOMING

17.1

38-21

20   

S M U Tulane

31.3

41-10

25   

AIR FORCE Army

21.0

42-21

14 1/2

Michigan IOWA

9.9

31-21

3 1/2

TEXAS TexasTech

11.0

31-20

10   

OKLAHOMA TexasA&M

14.7

41-26

16 1/2

ARKANSAS South Carolina

2.6

27-24

4 1/2

North Carolina NORTH CAROLINA ST.

3.9

27-23

3 1/2

ALABAMA L s u

5.0

21-16

4 1/2

Oregon WASHINGTON

12.0

40-28

16 1/2

Arizona St. U C L A

11.9

35-23

13 1/2

CALIFORNIA Washington St.

6.1

34-28

9 1/2

Notre Dame WAKEFOREST

20.2

37-17

14   

Southern Miss. EAST CAROLINA

12.5

41-28

9 1/2

SAN JOSE ST. Idaho

12.2

35-23

6   

ARIZONA Utah

2.1

24-22

1 1/2

Stanford OREGON ST.

27.9

49-21

21   

OKLAHOMA ST. Kansas St.

27.3

44-17

21 1/2

Missouri BAYLOR

10.1

38-28

1   

Houston U A B

25.9

50-24

24   

Cincinnati PITTSBURGH

2.5

24-21

3   

SAN DIEGO ST. New Mexico

35.5

49-13

37   

U t e p RICE

1.6

28-26

1 1/2

FRESNO ST. LouisianaTech

1.3

28-27

4   

Boise St. U N L V

44.5

59-14

41   

HAWAII Utah St.

3.7

31-27

9   

NAVY Troy

15.9

42-26

5   

UL-LAFAYETTE UL-Monroe

4.4

28-24

3 1/2

WESTERN KENTUCKY FloridaInternational

0.8

28-27

-3   

TENNESSEE MiddleTennessee

32.6

42-9

18   

Arkansas St. FLORIDAATLANTIC

26.5

37-10

16   

 

Note: If you like Halloween stories, check out the true story that happened to our founder 41 years ago tonight at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/a-true-halloween-story/

 

October 23, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for October 25-29, 2011

A Different Look At The Bowls

You can go to a couple dozen sites to get bowl projections, but those are simply opinionated predictions.  At the PiRate Ratings, we like to look at the bowls in the same way the bowls themselves look at the teams.  We go conference-by-conference and try to act as if we were representatives of the bowls.

 

Before going further, let us not forget that we issued a challenge at the first of this year to boycott the sponsors of the bowls and to notify the sponsors of your choice that you are boycotting their products for that purpose.  This was done as a ploy to take away the only reason there is not an NCAA Playoff in FBS Football.  If corporations were to become afraid to sponsor a bowl, then the bowl cannot make money.  If there was an “Occupy the Bowls” movement, the corporate big-wigs just might decide to sponsor playoffs and not bowl games.  When that happens, there will be playoffs.

 

Okay, that said, let us look at each conference and give you their bowl tie-ins and show you which teams are on the radar screen for invitations.

 

A C C

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Orange Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Chick-fil-A

3. Champs Sports

4. Sun

5. Belk

6. Music City

7. Independence

8. Military

Note: The ACC is the first substitute if the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl cannot fill its Pac-12 spot or if Army is not bowl eligible

 

The ACC Championship Game winner will get an automatic BCS Bowl bid, and it will be the Orange Bowl unless the champion goes to the National Championship Game.  For the Tigers to get to the title game, at least four teams from among LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Stanford will have to lose while CU goes 13-0.  Clemson is not a sure thing to get that far.  Virginia Tech is capable of beating the Tigers in a rematch.

 

The loser of the ACC Championship Game should end up in Atlanta in the Chick-fil-A. 

 

The next tier of teams that should get the next bowl slots are Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest and North Carolina State will fill out the last two spots.  There is a good chance that Virginia will win six games, and they could push Wake Forest for the eighth bowl spot.  In that case a 7-5 Demon Deacon team could fill in as an at-large entry in another bowl, and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl will have an opening for an ACC team, since Army will not be bowl eligible.

 

Big East

1. BCS Automatic Bid (At-Large)

(Notre Dame is eligible for all spots below here)

2. Champs Sports

3. Belk

4. Pinstripe

5. Liberty or BVAA Compass *

6. Beef O’Brady’s

 

* The Liberty Bowl has the option of selecting a Big East team in lieu of a Conference USA team or in place of the SEC if there are not enough bowl eligible SEC teams.  See SEC for more details.

 

Cincinnati is currently on top of the Big East at 2-0, but the Bearcats still have road games with Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse and a game at Paul Brown Stadium off campus against West Virginia.  Cinti will be in a bowl, but we are not sure they are the true favorite to make it a BCS bowl.

 

With the exception of South Florida, any of the other seven teams could win the league title.  Syracuse sure looks like the team to beat as of this week.  The Orange have a key game at Louisville this weekend.

 

Notre Dame is not headed to a BCS bowl with three losses and a road game still to play against Stanford.  The Irish will grab one of the five non-BCS bowl bids.  Counting Cincinnati and Syracuse, there will need to be three more bowl-eligible teams to fill the required slots.  Rutgers and West Virginia are sure things.  Pittsburgh and Louisville might decide the last bowl-eligible team when they face off in November.  Connecticut and South Florida are least likely to win six games.

 

Big Ten

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Rose Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Capital One

3. Outback

4-5. Gator or

4-5. Insight

6. Meineke Car Care

7. Ticket City

8. Little Caesar’s

 

The Big Ten champion will be headed to Pasadena this year, as it is almost impossible for this league to finish in the top two of the BCS Standings.

 

Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, and Nebraska all have just one loss and are bowl eligible.  Illinois is bowl eligible as well.  Iowa should get there this weekend after playing Minnesota.  Purdue and Ohio State, both 4-3, face off in November, and the winner of that game will finish the season with six or more wins.  If the conference sends a second team to the BCS, the Little Caesar’s Bowl could be looking to the Sunbelt to fill the vacant slot.  We think the Big Ten will miss out on getting a second BCS spot.

 

Big 12

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Fiesta Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Cotton

3. Alamo

4. Insight

5. Holiday

6. Meineke Car Care

7. Pinstripe (Notre Dame is eligible for this if Big 12 cannot provide a team)

 

With Oklahoma losing to Texas Tech, it throws a monkey wrench into the Big 12’s “sure-thing” chance to produce two BCS Bowl teams.  Oklahoma State is the only National Championship Game possibility now, as it appears that Boise State will not fall enough in the computer rankings for a one-loss Big 12 team to pass them, especially if Georgia keeps winning in the SEC.

 

Kansas State is still undefeated, but the Wildcats have Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M in the next three weeks.  If they win all three, then they deserve to move into the top two, but there’s a greater chance of a satellite fragment crashing at the 50-yard line at Snyder Family Stadium than the Wildcats completing that sweep.

 

Oklahoma State needs to win out, and they will play the Alabama-LSU winner for the national championship (assuming LSU does not beat Alabama and then lose to Arkansas).

After the Sooners, Cowboys, and Wildcats, Texas A&M is the best of the rest.  The Aggies could easily be undefeated, but they blew double digit leads in back-to-back weeks against Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

 

Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas are sure to gain bowl eligibility, while Missouri has a good shot to get to 6-6.  If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State and finishes 10-2, we believe they will still have a chance to garner a BCS At-large spot.  If the Sooners beat OSU and both finish 11-1, then it will be an almost certainty that the league will send two teams.

 

Pac-12

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Rose Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Alamo

3. Holiday

4. Sun

5. MAACO

6. Kraft Fight Hunger

7. New Mexico

 

Stanford will deserve a spot in the National Championship Game if they go 13-0 with their schedule.  They face USC at the Coliseum this weekend, and must also defeat Oregon and Notre Dame in Palo Alto.  Then, they have to win the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, most likely against Arizona State.

 

Oregon is still a co-favorite to win the league title for the second consecutive year.  The Ducks lost to LSU to open the season, but they have gotten better and better each week.  Oregon has a tough three-game stretch at Washington, at Stanford, and versus USC.  If they win out and then take Arizona State in the conference title game, they might be the top one-loss team and the only one capable of leapfrogging over an undefeated Boise State team.

 

Since the Trojans are not eligible for bowl participation until next year, there is a very good possibility that this conference will not have seven bowl eligible teams this year.

 

Washington and Arizona State are the other sure things, while Cal will probably do it if they beat UCLA this week.  It is a high probability that no other team will win six games, so the Pac-12 will come up short by two teams, three if they send a second team to the BCS. 

 

S E C

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Sugar Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Capital One

3-4-5. Outback or

3-4-5. Cotton or

3-4-5. Chick-fil-A

6. Gator

7. Music City

8-9. Liberty *

8-9 BVAA Compass *

 

* If the SEC cannot provide enough teams, the Liberty and Compass bowls alternate each year which bowl will find an at-large participant.  If the Liberty Bowl does not get an SEC team, they will take a Big East team that would have been the Compass Bowl’s selection.

 

It is very hard to believe the winner of the Alabama-LSU game would not be in the National Championship Game.  It isn’t impossible, but it’s hard to see any other SEC team beating the winner of this game.  It is also possible that if the winner of this epic matchup on November 5 wins by less than a field goal in one of those game for the ages, that the two teams could play again in New Orleans for all the marbles.

 

Arkansas is lurking in the bushes.  They have upset LSU before, including the Tigers’ national championship year of 2007.

 

Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina will be bowl eligible, and all of them could have eight wins on their resume.

 

Mississippi State is having an off-year after winning nine games in 2010, but the Bulldogs should get to 6-6 with Kentucky, UT-Martin, and Ole Miss still on the schedule.

 

Tennessee and Vanderbilt both have a chance to get to six wins, and it is likely that the winner of their November 19 game will be 6-6, while the loser finishes 5-7.  Kentucky and Ole Miss will not become bowl eligible this year.  So, it looks like nine bowl eligible teams for a probable 10 slots.

 

Best of the Rest

Mountain West

1. MAACO

2. Poinsettia

3. Independence

4. Famous Idaho Potato

5. New Mexico

 

Boise State has road victories over Georgia and Toledo, two teams that will be in bowls.  They have home victories over Tulsa, Nevada, and Air Force, who should all be in bowls.  The Broncos still have games with TCU and San Diego State, who should both be in bowls.  That adds to seven bowl teams on their schedule, and if they go 12-0, they will definitely be deserving of a BCS at-large Bowl Bid, but not the National Championship Game.  The Broncos will only get to New Orleans if every other team loses at least one game (Houston not included).  In our opinion, the Broncos deserve a BCS Bowl game over any Big East or ACC team.

 

TCU and San Diego State are sure things to become bowl eligible, while Air Force has concluded the difficult part of their schedule and could win out.

 

This is where things get murky.  If BSU earns a BCS bowl bid, this league will be liable for six bowl teams.  They may only have four.  Wyoming is 4-2, but the Cowboys will be hard pressed to come up with two more wins with a schedule that includes San Diego State, Air Force, and Boise State on the road and TCU at home.  A win over New Mexico is almost a guarantee, so the Cowboys would have to win against rival Colorado State in Ft. Collins on December 3.

 

The Rest

 

Conference USA

1. Liberty *

2. Hawaii

3. Ticket City

4. Armed Forces

5. Beef O’Brady’s

6. New Orleans

* BVAA Compass

 

* The Liberty Bowl can select a Big East team in place of the CUSA champion and send the league champion to Birmingham to the Compass Bowl.

 

Houston could go 13-0 and still be forced to play in the Liberty Bowl, although the Cougars could be shipped to a better bowl, such as the Alamo Bowl, in a “back room deal.”

 

Southern Mississippi and Tulsa are the two best teams after Houston, and both still have to play the Cougars (that is if USM wins the East Division and Houston wins the West).

 

SMU and UTEP should both be bowl eligible.  Of the remaining East Division teams, East Carolina has the best chance of sneaking in with six wins, while Central Florida and Marshall are long shots.  There is a chance that this league will come up one team short.

 

Independents

1. Notre Dame: Irish get a BCS bid if they finish in the top 8 in the final BCS standings.  They can also qualify for any Non-BCS bowl with ties to the Big East, and they can fill the Big 12’s Pinstripe Bowl slot if it is not filled by a Big 12 team).

 

2. B Y U: Cougars will earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl if they win seven games.

 

3. Navy: Midshipmen qualify for the Military Bowl if they are bowl eligible.

 

4. Army: The Black Knights qualify for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl if they are bowl eligible.  The ACC will replace a non-eligible Army team if they have a ninth bowl eligible team.

 

The only sure thing here is that BYU will earn their Armed Forces Bowl bid.  Notre Dame will go to one of the Big East bowls, while Army and Navy will be home for the holidays this year.

 

M A C

1. GoDaddy.com

2. Little Caesar’s

 

Toledo is the one sure thing this year.  The Rockets have been on a mission since the referees took away the Syracuse game from them with the blatantly terribly wrong PAT call.  They will earn one of the two guaranteed bowl bids.

 

Five teams will be competing for the other bowl spot.  In the East, where four teams have two conference losses, Temple, Ohio, and Bowling Green could all become bowl eligible.  In the West, besides Toledo, Northern Illinois can never be counted out of contention, as the Huskies have enough support to earn an at-large bid.  The two surprise teams here are Ball State and Eastern Michigan.  Both are 3-1/5-3, and both should win again to become bowl eligible.  While the Cardinals were in a bowl during Brady Hoke’s final season at BSU in 2008, it has been 24 years since EMU made its only bowl appearance.  The Eagles could win eight games, and Coach Ron English would have to merit some National Coach of the Year votes for taking a team that was #120 in the BCS two years ago.

 

Sunbelt

1. New Orleans

2. GoDaddy.com

* Beef O’Grady’s

* BVAA Compass

 

* The SBC is the principal backup choice of the Beef O’Grady’s Bowl if it cannot fill its spots with their regular tie-ins.  It is a secondary backup for the BVAA Compass Bowl.

 

Arkansas State is 3-0 in league play, while UL-Lafayette and Western Kentucky have one league loss apiece.  ASU beat WKU, and WKU beat ULL.  If ULL beats ASU, then the three could share the title, but we do not believe that will happen.  We’ll stick with ASU until somebody beats them in league play.

 

Florida International has a good chance of getting to seven wins and almost guaranteeing their receiving an at-large bowl bid.

 

The typical powers Troy and Middle Tennessee are out of the bowl picture for now.

 

W A C

Famous Idaho Potato

Poinsettia

Hawaii (Hawaii if they have seven or more wins)

New Mexico

 

Nevada will be the conference champion again, and Hawaii will win at least eight games.  After that, there is a question whether any other team will be bowl eligible.

 

San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State are 3-4, while Fresno State is 3-5.  FSU plays 13 games, and the Bulldogs are on pace to finish 6-7 and out of the bowl picture.

 

Of the 3-4 teams, Louisiana Tech still must face Fresno State, Ole Miss, and Nevada on the road, and that leads to seven losses.  New Mexico State still has games against Nevada, Georgia, and BYU, and that leads to at least seven losses.  San Jose State has the best chance to finish 3-2 and become bowl eligible.  The Spartans close with Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Navy, and Fresno State.  2nd year coach Mike MacIntyre has done a great job in two years there, and with former Michigan starting quarterback Tate Forcier set to become eligible next year, the Spartans could be on the verge of returning to their former winning ways when they went to four bowls in a decade.

 

This Week’s Power Ratings 1-120

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

138.1

2

Stanford

136.5

3

L S U

136.1

4

Oregon

131.6

5

Oklahoma St.

129.3

6

Oklahoma

129.3

7

Boise St.

126.9

8

Wisconsin

124.5

9

TexasA&M

123.3

10

Notre Dame

119.8

11

Florida St.

119.8

12

Clemson

119.5

13

Southern Cal

119.2

14

Arkansas

119.0

15

Michigan St.

118.8

16

Arizona St.

118.1

17

S. Carolina

116.7

18

Michigan

116.3

19

Missouri

115.6

20

Nebraska

114.9

21

Virginia Tech

114.3

22

Florida 

113.5

23

Georgia 

113.0

24

Miami(FL)

112.7

25

Washington

112.6

26

T C U

112.6

27

Kansas St.

112.3

28

Texas

111.3

29

TexasTech

111.1

30

Mississippi St.

111.0

31

Ohio St.

110.4

32

Cincinnati

109.5

33

W. Virginia

109.0

34

California

108.9

35

Arizona

108.5

36

Penn St.

107.7

37

Iowa

107.5

38

Southern Miss.

107.4

39

Tennessee

106.8

40

Utah

106.7

41

Auburn

106.7

42

Houston

106.6

43

Nevada

106.6

44

Baylor

106.5

45

Oregon St.

105.6

46

B Y U

105.0

47

Georgia Tech

104.1

48

Vanderbilt

103.9

49

WakeForest

103.0

50

San Diego St.

102.8

51

Pittsburgh

102.7

52

N. Carolina

102.4

53

Illinois

101.9

54

N. Carolina St.

101.7

55

Tulsa

101.4

56

S M U

101.3

57

S. Florida

101.3

58

Purdue

101.1

59

Toledo

100.6

60

U C L A

100.6

61

Maryland

100.4

62

Temple

100.3

63

Air Force

100.3

64

Washington St.

99.8

65

Hawaii

99.3

66

Northwestern

99.2

67

Rutgers

99.1

68

Utah St.

98.7

69

Ole Miss

97.7

70

Syracuse

97.1

71

Duke

96.7

72

BostonColl.

96.6

73

Iowa St.

95.9

74

Virginia

95.8

75

Connecticut

95.1

76

Navy

95.0

77

LouisianaTech

95.0

78

San Jose St.

94.8

79

Louisville

93.9

80

Central Florida

93.9

81

Fresno St.

93.7

82

Northern Illinois

93.4

83

Colorado

92.7

84

Western Michigan

92.6

85

East Carolina

92.5

86

Arkansas St.

91.9

87

Kentucky

89.1

88

Kansas

88.5

89

Wyoming

88.1

90

Bowling Green

87.7

91

U T E P

87.6

92

FloridaInt’l

87.1

93

Minnesota

86.8

94

Miami(O)

86.3

95

OhioU

85.9

96

U A B

85.8

97

Rice

85.5

98

Marshall

84.7

99

New Mexico St.

84.5

100

Colorado St.

84.5

101

Army

84.1

102

UL-Monroe

84.0

103

WesternKy.

83.1

104

Idaho

83.0

105

UL-Lafayette

82.1

106

Indiana

81.2

107

North Texas

81.0

108

Eastern Michigan

80.9

109

Ball St.

80.7

110

Central Michigan

80.0

111

MiddleTennessee

78.6

112

Buffalo

78.0

113

Troy

77.8

114

U N L V

77.8

115

Kent St.

74.5

116

New Mexico

70.1

117

Memphis

69.2

118

Tulane

68.7

119

Akron

67.5

120

FloridaAtlantic

64.8

 

By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

2-2

4-3

119.8

Clemson

5-0

8-0

119.5

WakeForest

4-1

5-2

103.0

North CarolinaState

1-2

4-3

101.7

Maryland

1-3

2-5

100.4

BostonCollege

0-4

1-6

96.6

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

3-1

7-1

114.3

Miami-FL

2-2

4-3

112.7

Georgia Tech

3-2

6-2

104.1

North Carolina

1-3

5-3

102.4

Duke

1-2

3-4

96.7

Virginia

1-2

4-3

95.8

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

2-0

6-1

109.5

West Virginia

1-1

5-2

109.0

Pittsburgh

1-1

3-4

102.7

South Florida

0-3

4-3

101.3

Rutgers

2-1

5-2

99.1

Syracuse

1-1

5-2

97.1

Connecticut

1-1

3-4

95.1

Louisville

1-1

3-4

93.9

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

2-1

6-1

124.5

OhioState

1-2

4-3

110.4

PennState

4-0

7-1

107.7

Illinois

2-2

6-2

101.9

Purdue

2-1

4-3

101.1

Indiana

0-4

1-7

81.2

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

MichiganState

3-0

6-1

118.8

Michigan

2-1

6-1

116.3

Nebraska

2-1

6-1

114.9

Iowa

2-1

5-2

107.5

Northwestern

0-4

2-5

99.2

Minnesota

0-3

1-6

86.8

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

OklahomaState

4-0

7-0

129.3

Oklahoma

3-1

6-1

127.5

TexasA&M

3-1

5-2

123.3

Missouri

1-3

3-4

115.6

KansasState

4-0

7-0

112.3

Texas

1-2

4-2

111.3

TexasTech

2-2

5-2

111.1

Baylor

1-2

4-2

106.5

IowaState

0-4

3-4

95.9

Kansas

0-4

2-5

88.5

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

2-1

6-1

107.4

Central Florida

1-2

3-4

93.9

East Carolina

2-1

3-4

92.5

U A B

1-3

1-6

85.8

Marshall

2-2

3-5

84.7

Memphis

1-2

2-6

69.2

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

3-0

7-0

106.6

Tulsa

3-0

4-3

101.4

S M U

3-1

5-2

101.3

U T E P

1-2

4-3

87.6

Rice

1-3

2-5

85.5

Tulane

1-3

2-6

68.7

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

4-3

119.8

B Y U  

6-2

105.0

Navy  

2-5

95.0

Army  

2-5

84.1

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-2

5-3

100.3

Bowling Green

2-2

4-4

87.7

Miami(O)

1-2

2-5

86.3

OhioU

2-2

5-3

85.9

Buffalo

1-3

2-6

78.0

Kent St.

0-3

1-6

74.5

Akron

0-3

1-6

67.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

4-0

5-3

100.6

Northern Illinois

3-1

5-3

93.4

Western Michigan

2-2

4-4

92.6

Eastern Michigan

3-1

5-3

80.9

BallState

3-1

5-3

80.7

Central Michigan

1-3

2-6

80.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

2-0

7-0

126.9

T C U

3-0

5-2

112.6

San DiegoState

1-1

4-2

102.8

Air Force

0-3

3-4

100.3

Wyoming

1-0

4-2

88.1

ColoradoState

1-1

3-4

84.5

UNLV

0-1

1-5

77.8

New Mexico

0-2

0-7

70.1

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

5-0

7-0

136.5

Oregon

4-0

6-1

131.6

Washington

3-1

5-2

112.6

California

1-3

4-3

108.9

OregonState

2-2

2-5

105.6

WashingtonState

1-3

3-4

99.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

3-1

6-1

119.2

ArizonaState

3-1

5-2

118.1

Arizona

1-3

2-5

108.5

Utah

0-4

3-4

106.7

U C L A

2-2

3-4

100.6

Colorado

0-4

1-7

92.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

4-1

6-1

116.7

Florida

2-3

4-3

113.5

Georgia

4-1

5-2

113.0

Tennessee

0-4

3-4

106.8

Vanderbilt

1-3

4-3

103.9

Kentucky

0-3

3-4

89.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

5-0

8-0

138.1

L S U

5-0

8-0

136.1

Arkansas

2-1

6-1

119.0

MississippiState

0-4

3-4

111.0

Auburn

3-2

5-3

106.7

Ole Miss

0-4

2-5

97.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

3-0

5-2

91.9

FloridaInternational

1-2

4-3

87.1

Louisiana-Monroe

1-2

2-5

84.0

Western Kentucky

3-1

3-4

83.1

U.ofLouisiana

4-1

6-2

82.1

North Texas

2-2

3-5

81.0

MiddleTennessee

1-2

2-4

78.6

Troy

1-2

2-4

77.8

FloridaAtlantic

0-4

0-7

64.8

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

2-0

4-3

106.6

Hawaii

2-1

4-3

99.3

UtahState

0-2

2-5

98.7

LouisianaTech

2-1

3-4

95.0

San JoseState

2-1

3-4

94.8

FresnoState

2-1

3-5

93.7

New MexicoState

1-2

3-4

84.5

Idaho

0-3

1-6

83.0

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, October 25  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

FLORIDAINT’L Troy

11.8

33-21

5   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, October 26  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

PITTSBURGH Connecticut

10.6

28-17

10 1/2

   

 

 

 

Thursday, October 27  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MIAMI(FL) Virginia

19.9

34-14

14 1/2

HOUSTON Rice

23.1

51-28

26 1/2

   

 

 

 

Friday, October 28  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

T C U B y u

11.1

35-24

11 1/2

   

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Saturday, October 29  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Mississippi St. KENTUCKY

18.9

31-12

10 1/2

MARSHALL U a b

1.9

26-24

6   

Central Mich. AKRON

10.0

31-21

8 1/2

WESTERNMICH. Ball St.

14.4

31-17

13 1/2

NORTH CAROLINA WakeForest

2.4

28-26

7   

FLORIDA ST. North Carolina St.

21.6

38-16

19 1/2

Clemson GEORGIATECH

12.4

42-30

NL

Iowa MINNESOTA

17.7

28-10

17 1/2

Michigan St. NEBRASKA

0.4

24-24 to ot

-5 1/2

Northwestern INDIANA

15.5

37-21

9 1/2

MICHIGAN Purdue

18.2

38-20

15   

PENN ST. Illinois

9.3

23-14

6   

Virginia Tech DUKE

15.1

27-12

14   

West Virginia RUTGERS

6.9

31-24

7   

Syracuse LOUISVILLE

0.2

26-26 to ot

-4   

MARYLAND BostonCollege

6.8

27-20

7 1/2

AUBURN Ole Miss

12.0

35-23

10 1/2

Arkansas VANDERBILT

12.6

34-21

12 1/2

TEXAS Kansas

26.3

38-12

24   

Bowling Green KENT ST.

10.7

31-20

5   

Air Force NEW MEXICO

27.7

42-14

28 1/2

TULSA S m u

3.1

37-34

3   

ARIZONA ST. Colorado

28.4

38-10

30 1/2

EAST CAROLINA Tulane

26.8

40-13

18   

TEXASA&M Missouri

11.2

38-27

11   

TEXASTECH Iowa St.

18.2

38-20

17 1/2

MIAMI(O) Buffalo

5.8

28-22

8   

NOTRE DAME Navy

27.8

45-17

17 1/2

Florida  (N) Georgia

0.5

24-23

NL

LOUISIANATECH San Jose St.

3.7

31-27

9 1/2

CENTRAL FLORIDA Memphis

27.7

41-13

29   

Hawaii IDAHO

12.8

38-25

11   

Colorado St. U N L V

3.7

28-24

3 1/2

UTAH Oregon St.

4.1

27-23

7   

California U C L A

5.3

31-26

5 1/2

WASHINGTON Arizona

7.1

30-23

8   

OREGON Washington St.

35.3

56-21

32 1/2

South Carolina TENNESSEE

6.9

20-10

6 1/2

Oklahoma KANSAS ST.

12.2

42-30

13 1/2

OKLAHOMA ST. Baylor

25.8

50-24

18   

Wisconsin OHIO ST.

11.1

25-14

8 1/2

Southern Miss. U T E P

16.8

38-21

11   

Stanford SOUTHERN CAL

13.8

35-21

8 1/2

Nevada NEW MEXICO ST.

19.1

40-21

15   

SAN DIEGO ST. Wyoming

17.7

35-17

17   

UL-MONROE Western Kentucky

3.4

31-28

6 1/2

ARKANSAS ST. North Texas

13.4

34-21

14 1/2

UL-Lafayette MIDDLETENNESSEE

1.0

26-25

-3   

 

 

December 26, 2010

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Two

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game. 

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl

Detroit, MI

8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Toledo (8-4)  vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)

Vegas: Toledo by 1

Totals: 57

PiRate: Toledo by 3.3

Mean: Toledo by 2.8

Bias: Toledo by 16.8

100 Sims: Toledo 67  Florida International 33

Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6  Florida International 25.7

Outlier A: Toledo 49  Florida International 19

Outlier B: Florida International 37  Toledo 24

 

Monday, December 27

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

Air Force (8-4)  vs.  Georgia Tech (6-6)

Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½  

Totals: 56

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7

Mean: Air Force by 5.2

Bias: Air Force by 5.9

100 Sims: Air Force 55  Georgia Tech 45

Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2  Georgia Tech 26.9

Outlier A: Air Force 41  Georgia Tech 23

Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34  A Force 23

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

6:30 PM EST on ESPN

West Virginia (9-3)  vs. North Carolina State (8-4)

Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½

Totals: 49

PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8

Mean: West Virginia by 2.3

Bias: West Virginia by 3.0

100 Sims: West Virginia 53  North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)

Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8  North Carolina State 25.2

Outlier A: West Virginia 27  North Carolina State 10

Outlier B: North Carolina State 28  West Virginia 12

 

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM EST

Missouri (10-2)  vs.  Iowa (7-5)

Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½

Totals: 46 ½

PiRate: Even

Mean: Missouri by 4.1

Bias: Missouri by 12.6

100 Sims: Missouri 58  Iowa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6  Iowa 22.3

Outlier A: Missouri 31  Iowa 13

Outlier B: Iowa 21  Missouri 7

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl

Washington, D.C.

2:30 PM on EST

Maryland (8-4)  vs. East Carolina (6-6)

Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½

Totals: 68 ½

PiRate: Maryland by 18.4

Mean: Maryland by 11.2

Bias: Maryland by 13.8

100 Sims: East Carolina 51  Maryland 49

Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4  East Carolina 34.1

Outlier A: East Carolina 47  Maryland 31

Outlier B: Maryland 42  East Carolina 20

 

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

6:00 PM EST on ESPN

Baylor (7-5)  vs. Illinois (6-6)

Vegas: Baylor by 1

Totals: 62 ½

PiRate: Baylor by 2.4

Mean: Illinois by 1.6

Bias: Baylor by 6.9

100 Sims: Illinois 54  Baylor 46

Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1  Baylor 28.6

Outlier A: Illinois 34  Baylor 17

Outlier B: Baylor 28  Illinois 18

 

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM EST on ESPN

Oklahoma State (10-2)  vs. Arizona (7-5)

Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½

Totals: 66

PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1

Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1

Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6

100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61  Arizona 39

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0  Arizona 29.1

Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51  Arizona 27

Outlier B: Arizona 34  Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)

 

Thursday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U (7-6)  vs. Army (6-6)

Vegas: S M U by 7

Totals: 52

PiRate: S M U by 7.7

Mean: S M U by 3.2

Bias: S M U by 10.6

100 Sims: S M U 64  Army 36

Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2  Army 20.6

Outlier A: S M U 34  Army 10

Outlier B: Army 24  S M U 16

 

Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

3:20 PM EST

Syracuse (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 47 ½

PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5

Mean: Kansas State by 4.6

Bias: Syracuse by 2.3

100 Sims: Syracuse 53  Kansas State 47

Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1  Kansas State 18.6

Outlier A: Syracuse 24  Kansas State 7

Outlier B: Kansas State 17  Syracuse 3

 

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

6:30 PM EST

Tennessee (6-6)  vs. North Carolina (7-5)

Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½  

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8

Mean: North Carolina by 1.5

Bias: Tennessee by 6.6

100 Sims: Tennessee 50  North Carolina 50

Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5  North Carolina 23.9

Outlier A: Tennessee 30  North Carolina 14

Outlier B: North Carolina 27  Tennessee 12

 

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

10:00 PM EST

Nebraska (10-3)  vs. Washington (6-6)

Vegas: Nebraska by 14

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8

Mean: Nebraska by 11.5

Bias: Nebraska by 5.3

100 Sims: Nebraska 57  Washington 43

Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1  Washington 19.3

Outlier A: Nebraska 27  Washington 6

Outlier B: Washington 23  Nebraska 14

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

12:00 Noon EST

South Florida (7-5)  vs. Clemson (6-6)

Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½

Totals: 40 ½

PiRate: Clemson by 5.1

Mean: Clemson by 3.7

Bias: South Florida by 6.1

100 Sims: South Florida 58  Clemson 42

Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1  Clemson 19.2

Outlier A: South Florida 31  Clemson 12

Outlier B: Clemson 28  South Florida 16

 

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

2:00 PM EST on CBS

Notre Dame (7-5)  vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)

Vegas: Miami by 3

Totals: 47

PiRate: Miami by 6.3

Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2

Bias: Miami by 6.0

100 Sims: Notre Dame 52  Miami 48

Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4  Miami 23.2

Outlier A: Notre Dame 30  Miami 14

Outlier B: Miami 35  Notre Dame 14

 

Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST on ESPN

Central Florida (10-3)  vs. Georgia (6-6)

Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½

Totals: 55 ½

PiRate: Georgia by 12.8

Mean: Georgia by 5.3

Bias: Georgia by 11.3

100 Sims: Georgia 72  Central Florida 28

Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6  Central Florida 17.3

Outlier A: Georgia 38  Central Florida 10

Outlier B: Central Florida 24  Georgia 19

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM EST on ESPN

South Carolina (9-4)  vs. Florida State (9-4)

Vegas: South Carolina by 3

Totals: 55

PiRate: Florida State by 0.4

Mean: South Carolina by 0.5

Bias: Florida State by 1.6

100 Sims: Florida State 52  South Carolina 48

Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7  Florida State 26.6

Outlier A: Florida State 30  South Carolina 16

Outlier B: South Carolina 44  Florida State 17

 

Saturday, January 1

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U

Texas Tech (7-5)  vs. Northwestern (7-5)

Vegas: Texas Tech by 10

Totals: 60

PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5

Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3

Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6

100 Sims: Texas Tech 86  Northwestern 14

Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6  Northwestern 21.2

Outlier A: Texas Tech 45  Northwestern 17

Outlier B: Northwestern 30  Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)

 

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

1:00 PM EST on ABC

Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)

Vegas: Florida by 7 ½  

Totals: 48

PiRate: Florida by 13.2

Mean: Florida by 5.1

Bias: Florida by 5.5

100 Sims: Florida 54  Penn State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6  Penn State 19.8

Outlier A: Florida 28  Penn State 13

Outlier B: Penn State 21  Florida 10

 

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL

1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Michigan State (11-1) vs.  Alabama (9-3)

Vegas: Alabama by 10

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Alabama by 15.5

Mean: Alabama by 10.4

Bias: Alabama by 3.2

100 Sims: Alabama 59  Michigan State 41

Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6  Michigan State 24.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan State 12

Outlier B: Michigan State 35  Alabama 25

 

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM EST on ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4)  vs.  Michigan (7-5)

Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½

Totals: 61

PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3

Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3

Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8

100 Sims: Mississippi State 52  Michigan 48

Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7  Michigan 30.1

Outlier A: Mississippi State 38  Michigan 20

Outlier B: Michigan 36  Mississippi State 27

 

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

T C U (12-0)  vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

Vegas: T C U by 3

Totals: 58 ½

PiRate: T C U by 7.9

Mean: T C U by 5.8

Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6

100 Sims: Wisconsin 54  T C U 46

Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4  T C U 28.8

Outlier A: Wisconsin 40  T C U 24

Outlier B: T C U 34  Wisconsin 24

 

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma (11-2)  vs. Connecticut (8-4)

Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2

Totals: 55

PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7

Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2

Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7

100 Sims: Oklahoma 91  Connecticut 9

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3  Connecticut 14.8

Outlier A: Oklahoma 49  Connecticut 7

Outlier B: Connecticut 27  Oklahoma 23

August 19, 2010

2010 Big 12 Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:33 am

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Big 12 Conference Preview

The Big 12 Conference almost ceased to exist this summer.  It looked like eight of the 12 teams would leave and end up in the Big Ten, Pac-10, and even SEC.  After the dust cleared, the conference was left with 10 teams.  Colorado was the only member of six possible teams to accept the Pac-10 bid.  Nebraska, tired of seeing Texas control the league, gladly accepted a bid to the Big Ten.  The rest of the league will hold a grudge in this final season before divorce becomes official.  Speaking of officials, this league will need close scrutiny this year.  After Nebraska felt they had been robbed in the Big 12 Championship Game, can they expect any better treatment this year? 

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos North B12 W-L
1 Nebraska 8-0 12-1
2 Missouri 4-4 8-4
3 Colorado 4-4 6-6
4 Kansas 3-5 5-7
5 Kansas State 2-6 6-6
6 Iowa State 1-7 3-9
       
Pos South B12 W-L
1 Oklahoma 7-1 12-1
2 Texas 6-2 10-2
3 Texas Tech 5-3 8-4
4 Texas A&M 4-4 7-5
5 Baylor 3-5 6-6
6 Oklahoma State 1-7 5-7

 

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma over Nebraska

 

BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

BCS Bowl: Nebraska

Cotton Bowl: Texas

Alamo Bowl: Missouri

Insight Bowl: Texas Tech

Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M

Texas Bowl: Baylor

Pinstripe Bowl: Colorado

Dallas Football Classic: Kansas State

 

 

Team By Team Breakdown

North Division

Team Colorado Buffaloes
               
Head Coach Dan Hawkins
               
Colors Black and Gold
               
City Boulder, CO
               
2009 Record              
Conference 2-6
Overall 3-9
               
PiRate Rating 105.5
               
National Rating 45
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 6-6

 

Strengths: Offensive Line, Receivers, Defensive Line

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 24-27 points / 320-340 yards

Expected Defense: 24-27 points / 340-360 yards

Schedule: Out of Conference: Colorado State (n), @ California, Hawaii, and Georgia

Interdivision: Baylor, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Outlook: The Buffaloes need to settle on one quarterback, and Tyler Hansen is that man.  Hansen should get more time to pass and pass for 2,500 or more yards, and we don’t expect CU QBs to be sacked 44 times again.  Rodney Stewart could top 1,000 yards rushing.  Transfers from Michigan, USC and UCLA should bolster the receiving corps.  The offensive line returns the entire two-deep from last year, including nine players with starting experience.

A better pass rush should help the defense improve a little, but we don’t expect the Buffs to challenge for a top four position in the league.  Coach Dan Hawkins must win this year, or he will be out of a job.  We don’t know if 6-6 and a minor bowl will be enough, but that is what we think will happen.

Team Iowa State Cyclones
               
Head Coach Paul Rhoads
               
Colors Cardinal and Gold
               
City Ames, IA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 7-6
               
PiRate Rating 94.4
               
National Rating 77
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 1-7
Overall 3-9

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Receiver, Defensive Line, Linebacker

Expected Offense: 22-26 point / 375-400 yards

Expected Defense: 24-28 points / 425-450 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Northern Illinois, @ Iowa, Northern Iowa, and Utah

Interdivision: Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas

Outlook: Coach Paul Rhoads placed the Cyclones in a bowl in his first year in Ames, but ISU will revert back to their losing ways this year.  The offense will be somewhat improved, but it was ranked last in the Big 12 last year.  Quarterback Austin Arnaud will hand the ball to Alexander Robinson a lot this year, and if Robinson stays healthy, he could top 1,250 yards on the ground.  Arnaud can run and pass with equal competency, so he should take some of the pressure off Robinson.  Other than Jake Williams, ISU will have to rely on several average receivers.  None of his teammates will allow Williams to avoid double coverage.  The offensive line features tackle Kelechi Osemele, a 2nd Team All-Big 12 selection last year.

Seven key defensive performers graduated, so the Cyclones will take a large step backwards.  The front seven will be much weaker, and opponents will run the ball for more yards and pass against less pass rushing pressure.  Even with a decent secondary, the weaker pass rush will force them to cover a half-second to a second longer.  Expect the pass yardage allowed to go up as well.

ISU should win two of their four non-conference games, but we can only see them winning one Big 12 contest.  Call it a 3-9 rebuilding season.

Team Kansas Jayhawks
               
Head Coach Turner Gill
               
Colors Dark Blue and Red
               
City Lawrence, KS
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 102.0
               
National Rating 53
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 3-5
Overall 5-7

 

Strengths: Not many, but the Offensive Line and Defensive Line are small positives

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Linebacker, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 22-26 points / 330-350 yards

Expected Defense: 24-28 points / 360-380 yards

Schedule: Out of conference: North Dakota State, Georgia Tech, @ Southern Mississippi, New Mexico State

Interdivision: @ Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State

Outlook: Turner Gill takes over after bringing Buffalo from also-ran to MAC Champion in short time.  It will take time here for his system to bear fruit, but we are confident that he can recruit the Midwest and Southwest and return the Jayhawks to prominence.

KU will debut a new quarterback this year, as Kale Pick and Jordan Webb are locked in a competitive battle.  Pick threw five passes, while Webb has yet to take a college snap.  An interesting battle brews at running back, where last year’s leading rusher Toben Opurum and 6th year player and former linebacker Angus Quigley could form a decent tandem.  KU lost two star receivers who combined for 186 receptions and more than 2,300 yards, so this will be a liability.  Four starters return to the line, and they will undergo some restructuring to fit Gill’s change of offense.

In a pass happy league, a weak secondary is bad news.  KU has some bad news.  The returning defensive backs combined for just two interceptions.  This side of the ball will have to learn a new system as well, and the defensive line is the only average unit using Big 12 standards.  A real plus for the Jayhawks is not having to play Oklahoma or Texas from the South.

Gill has enough talent to repeat last year’s 5-7 record.  The offense wi