College Football Preview: November 10-14, 2015

The Week That Was–The Big Skakedown
It started last Tuesday with Northern Illinois knocking off unbeaten Toledo. Memphis, Michigan State, TCU, and LSU followed suit, and now it’s down to Clemson, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Ohio State, and Iowa. Five unbeaten teams remain, but at least two of the quintet must lose, because Ohio State and Iowa would meet in the Big Ten Championship Game if they won out, and Baylor and Oklahoma State must play in the regular season.

Does this mean that #1 Clemson’s path is clear and easy? No, because the Tigers may not be the best team in the ACC at the present time. North Carolina had a bump in the road in the opening week of the season, blowing a lead and losing to South Carolina to open the season. Since then, the Tar Heels have dominated on both sides of the ball. The most recent win, a blowout of rival Duke, moves UNC into the driver’s seat in the Coastal Division.

The schedule does not have as many great games this week, but there are many important ones. Not only are conference races still up for grabs, there are about 20 teams competing for the final six to eight bowl bids. As we believed last week, we continue to believe this week that only 79 teams will reach bowl eligibility. That means one 5-7 team will back into a bowl game. The rule states that if it comes down to 5-7 teams, the tiebreaker is the last football APR (academic progress rate) score. In case you were wondering, Nebraska is number one in line with a 985 score, followed by Vanderbilt (983), Army (981), Rutgers (980), Boston College (980), Georgia Tech (978), Virginia Tech (977), Washington (977), and Kansas St. (976) (teams already bowl eligible were not included in the APR rankings.)

Let’s break the conference races down and show you just how dysfunctional the race to the Playoffs could be.

Power Five Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Clemson sits pretty at 6-0/9-0 with little competition in their site in the regular season. However, North Carolina looks to be headed to an 8-0 finish. We believe that the Tar Heels have a better than 50-50 chance of beating Clemson and securing the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.

Notre Dame is included in the ACC write-up, since the Irish can receive an ACC bowl bid and even jump over an ACC team with one additional win. The Irish must close out the season at Stanford, and as of now, we believe the Cardinal will win a close one. At 10-2, Notre Dame would jump over everybody else in the ACC that isn’t automatically in a NY6 Bowl.

Florida State will look much better if the Seminoles edge Florida in three weeks, while Duke and Pittsburgh will decide who rates ahead of the other when they face off in Durham this week.

Miami, North Carolina State, and Louisville will go somewhere, while Virginia Tech still has a strong chance of getting a sixth win. Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Virginia are out for now.

Big Ten
Ohio State and Iowa look like they are headed to an epic 12-0 vs. 12-0 battle in the Big Ten Championship Game, but those sneaky PiRates believe there is going to be a little fly in the Buckeye ointment. All season long, we have been looking at the upstart rival up north. Michigan may be repeating history from 1969. If you didn’t read our analogy from October, we compared this season to 1969, when defending national champion Ohio State entered the final game undefeated and ranked number one, while Michigan came into the game with two losses, one to a conference champion from another power conference, and one to Michigan State. In 1969, Michigan’s defense shut down Ohio State in the second half and pulled off a big upset at the Big House to win the Big Ten title. The PiRates believe history can and will repeat itself, and Michigan will win the East by upsetting Ohio State again.

Iowa must lost twice for Wisconsin to pass them in the standings, and the Hawkeyes close with Minnesota and Purdue at home and Nebraska on the road. The Hawkeyes might run the table, but we believe Michigan or Ohio State would beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should Michigan State upset Ohio State and take the East Division flag, then Iowa might take the conference title and advance to the playoffs at 13-0. For now, we say Michigan over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. That would leave an Ohio State team at 11-1 probably as the number four seed in the playoffs.

Besides the five teams previously mentioned, Penn State and Northwestern are sure things for bowls. Indiana and Rutgers have the next two best chances to get to 6-6, while Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska have minor chances.

Big 12
TCU can still win the Big 12 Championship, but the Horned Frogs are out of the playoff picture. Oklahoma State and Baylor, remain undefeated, while Oklahoma sits a game back with one loss. Baylor still must play all three of the contenders consecutively, and we believe the Bears are going to lose at least one game and more likely two of the three.

Oklahoma cannot lose another game and win the league, and the Sooners close with the other three contenders, with Baylor and Oklahoma State coming on the road.

Oklahoma State has a winnable road game against Iowa State, and then the Cowboys close with home games against Baylor and Oklahoma. After OSU dismissed TCU, it looks like the boys from Stillwater have the best chance of running the table and entering the playoffs at 12-0.

There is quite a drop after the top four. We see three additional bowl eligible teams in West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. As for Texas, the Longhorns are 4-5 with games at West Virginia, home against Texas Tech, and a finale at Baylor. It looks like 5-7 for the Longhorns, and 5-7 may not allow Coach Charlie Strong to keep his job.

Pac-12
This is an interesting race, and it may be so balanced at this point that no team emerges with just one loss. In the North, Stanford needs one more conference win to clinch the division. The Cardinal can do that this week against Oregon, but if the Ducks win, the race is still alive. The Ducks could then win the division by knocking off USC and Oregon State, if California beats Stanford.

Washington State can still tie for the division crown by winning at UCLA, home against Colorado, and at Washington, if Stanford loses to Oregon and Cal, and Oregon wins out. However, the Cougars have been eliminated from the Pac-12 Championship Game, because Oregon would edge WSU with a better intradivisional record.

California needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and the Bears should get that against Oregon State this week. Washington might finish 5-7 with losses at Arizona State and against Washington State, but the Huskies might be the one lucky 5-7 team to make it to a bowl thanks to their APR score.

The South Division title is still undecided with Utah holding a one game lead over USC and UCLA. The Trojans beat the Utes earlier this year, while Utah and UCLA have yet to play, and of course USC and UCLA have yet to play. Utah is not getting much respect, and the Utes are not totally out of the playoff race themselves. If they beat UCLA and then knock off Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game, a 12-1 Utah team could make a case, especially if USC continues to win.

Arizona State is a wounded team coming in with just one engine, but the Seminoles have the best shot of the rest of getting to 6-6.

Southeastern
Who is going to beat Alabama the rest of the way? The Crimson Tide are supposed to be headed for a trap game at Mississippi State this week, but the Bulldogs do not have enough talent to upset the Tide, unless ‘Bama gives them 14 points in turnovers like they did against Ole Miss.

Ole Miss played themselves out of the conference championship picture with the loss to Arkansas. Facemask penalties can be big. LSU could only win the West if they win out and Alabama loses. It may be even harder for the Tigers to win out than for someone else to beat Alabama.

The rest of this division will also be bowl eligible, an incredible seven out of seven. Because of this, a 12-1 Alabama team might deserve to be the overal number one seed regardless of who else goes undefeated.

Florida has already clinched the East Division, but the Gators might still lose two more games. A team that scores just nine points at home on Vanderbilt could easily lose at South Carolina or at home to Florida State, and they will lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Tennessee was 3-4 two weeks ago, but the Volunteers should win out to finish 8-4 and take second in the division. Georgia has a tough finishing conference game at Auburn, but the Bulldogs finish with two sure things out of conference against Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech. If they lose either one, then Mark Richt becomed unemployed.

Kentucky has now lost four games in a row to fall to 4-5, but the Wildcats’ next two games are winnable. This week’s game at Vanderbilt could be tough, but the Commodores’ offense is as weak as any Power Six Conference team, and a couple of scores could be all the Wildcats need to secure a win. The following week’s game against Charlotte should get the ‘Cats bowl eligible if they knock off the Commodores this week.

South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Missouri are out of the bowl race, and Missouri’s team could be looking at one or more forfeit losses to close the season due to racial tensions on the campus leading to a team walkout. Missouri’s proposed finishing schedule includes a game against BYU in Kansas City this weekend, followed by a home game against Tennessee and a road game against Arkansas.

Group of Five Conferences

American Athletic
Navy’s upset of Memphis ruined the big game for this week, when the Tigers go to Houston. Houston is still in control of the New Year’s Six Bowl that goes to the best Group of Five team, but the Cougars have three tough games to go. Besides needing to beat Memphis, they have to beat Navy and then Temple in the AAC Championship Game.

Don’t count out Navy just yet. The Midshipmen’s lone loss is to Notre Dame, and they did not look like the underdog pulling off a surprise in the win at Memphis. Navy could do the same thing to Houston and take the West Division flag.

Tulsa is not in contention in the West, but the Golden Hurricane needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. The season-ended against Tulane ought to give UT that win.

Temple has a two-game lead in the East Division, but they have a tough closing schedule. The Owls play at the hot South Florida Bulls this week, and USF is still alive in the division race. TU then finishes with home games against Memphis and Connecticut. We believe TU will win out and then win the Conference Championship Game to earn the New Year’s Six Bowl bid.

Besides USF, Cincinnati appears to be the only other team headed to bowl eligibility, as Connecticut and East Carolina don’t appear to have enough winnable games left.

Conference USA
Any chance that a C-USA team could make it to the New Year’s Six Bowl was lost when Marshall lost at Middle Tennessee this past weekend. Western Kentucky already had two losses, and even if the Hilltoppers win out, they will not jump over every AAC team.

The Middle Tennessee win virtually locked up a bowl bid for the Blue Raiders, while Old Dominion and Florida International still hold slim chances of making it to six wins.

In the West, Louisiana Tech looks invincible at this point, but Southern Miss. still has a shot. We believe the winner of that game will eventually emerge as the overall conference champion and have first dibs on which of seven contracted bowls they wish to accept, or in other words accepts the Bahamas Bowl.

Rice and UTEP still have even money odds’ chances of finishing 6-6.

Independents
BYU has already clinched a bowl, and they will be invited to either the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl.

Army already has seven losses, but if the Black Knights beat Tulane, Rutgers, and Navy, they could still earn a bowl bid with a superior APR score. We think West Point will lose an eighth, ninth, and tenth game, so it is a moot point.

Mid-American
Bowling Green is up two games with three to play in the East, and the Falcons would have to lose all three for Buffalo to surpass them. The Bulls need just one more win to become bowl eligible, and that should happen with a game against UMass on November 27, if not at Akron the week before.

Akron needs two more wins, and the Zips still have Miami of Ohio and Kent State on their schedule. Call it 6-6 for Terry Bowden’s crew, as Akron makes it to a bowl for the second time ever.

Ohio needs one more win to earn a bowl bid. The Bobcats were once a leading contender to win the division, but the season soured at the halfway point. Weak opponents in consecutive weeks against Kent State and Ball State should get Ohio to 7-5.

The West Division is a mess thanks to last week’s results. Western Michigan is now alone in first place at 5-0, but the Broncos have a killer finishing schedule against Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Toledo, the latter two on the road.

Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan are in a three-way tie at 4-1. TU has a schedule the equal of WMU with games at CMU, at BGU, and at home against WMU. NIU has it a little easier with games at Buffalo, and home against WMU and Ohio. CMU closes with Toledo at home but their final two games are easy wins against Kent State and Eastern Michigan. The Chippewas were a consensus 5th place choice in the preseason, and first year coach John Bonamego will draw a lot of attention from bigger schools after spending most of his career coaching in the NFL.

Mountain West
It was supposed to be a slam dunk 13-0 season for Boise State, but the Broncos stumbled early against BYU and lost at Utah State. Still, BSU can win the Mountain Division with a closing schedule of New Mexico, Air Force, and San Jose State. The Broncos will not be the favored team in the conference championship game if they win the division title.

Air Force still controls its own destiny in the Mountain Division, and hiding in the bushes, New Mexico also controls its own destiny. Bob Davie’s Lobos may not win out and take the division flag, but UNM needs just one more win to earn their first bowl bid since 2007. Utah State needs help to win the division and appears headed to a 6-6 finish.

Colorado State must win two more games to get to six wins, and the Rams should do it by defeating UNLV and Fresno State. That would mean five of the six Mountain teams would earn a bowl bid.

The West Division is not so fortunate. Only San Diego State is assured of earning a bowl bid at this point, and the Aztecs appear to be the class of the entire league this year.

Nevada should finish 6-6, but there is no guarantee that the Wolfpack will win another game with San Jose State, Utah State, and San Diego State left to play. As for San Jose State, the Spartans are 4-5 after a close loss to BYU, and they close with Nevada, Hawaii, and Boise State. The winner of the Nevada-San Jose State game should finish 6-6, but that is not for sure.

Sun Belt
In a weeknight surprise, Arkansas State upset Appalachian State to take command in the SBC. The Red Wolves have three easy marks in their way to the SBC title in Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, and Texas State. The fans in Jonesboro might be getting nervous, not because ASU could be upset, but because someone may come calling for Coach Blake Anderson.

Appalachian State will still go bowling this year, as will Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Lafayette.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	129.6	127.4	129.5	128.8
2	Ohio St.	128.5	123.1	129.3	127.0
3	Baylor	127.8	124.0	128.1	126.6
4	Oklahoma	127.0	123.7	127.6	126.1
5	Stanford	124.2	122.3	124.6	123.7
6	Clemson	122.9	124.1	123.6	123.5
7	TCU	126.0	117.7	126.4	123.4
8	LSU	123.6	120.8	123.7	122.7
9	Notre Dame	123.1	120.2	123.1	122.1
10	USC	122.0	118.1	122.0	120.7
11	North Carolina	120.3	120.8	120.6	120.6
12	Utah	121.9	116.8	121.4	120.0
13	UCLA	122.2	116.2	120.8	119.7
14	Ole Miss	122.2	116.9	120.1	119.7
15	Tennessee	120.6	116.5	120.4	119.2
16	Oklahoma St.	119.2	116.6	119.8	118.5
17	Florida	119.4	116.0	119.4	118.3
18	Michigan	119.0	116.2	119.1	118.1
19	Arkansas	118.8	113.6	118.0	116.8
20	Mississippi St.	116.7	113.4	117.2	115.8
21	Auburn	116.0	113.6	115.4	115.0
22	Oregon	117.1	110.8	116.7	114.9
23	Georgia	117.2	110.7	116.1	114.7
24	Michigan St.	115.5	112.3	114.8	114.2
25	Florida St.	114.1	114.8	113.4	114.1
26	Texas A&M	115.6	112.1	113.4	113.7
27	California	115.1	109.4	114.2	112.9
28	Houston	109.9	115.9	112.1	112.6
29	Wisconsin	112.7	112.3	111.8	112.3
30	Iowa	110.7	112.9	111.3	111.6
31	Georgia Tech	112.7	110.3	111.3	111.4
32	Arizona St.	113.6	108.1	112.1	111.3
33	Boise St.	112.4	109.0	112.1	111.2
34	North Carolina St.	110.4	112.2	109.4	110.7
35	West Virginia	112.9	106.9	111.9	110.6
36	Bowling Green	107.8	112.8	110.9	110.5
37	Virginia Tech	110.2	109.9	110.0	110.0
38	Temple	108.8	110.9	109.5	109.7
39	Washington	110.1	107.1	110.4	109.2
40	Louisville	107.5	110.2	107.3	108.3
41	Nebraska	108.4	106.6	107.6	107.5
42	Pittsburgh	106.8	107.3	107.4	107.2
43	Memphis	106.5	107.4	107.1	107.0
44	Missouri	108.4	104.8	107.3	106.8
45	South Carolina	108.3	104.8	106.8	106.6
46	Cincinnati	105.3	107.2	107.1	106.5
47	Penn St.	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5
48	Washington St.	107.4	103.8	107.7	106.3
49	Duke	106.1	106.3	106.2	106.2
50	BYU	106.2	105.6	106.8	106.2
51	Navy	104.6	108.1	105.4	106.0
52	Western Kentucky	105.6	105.7	106.6	106.0
53	San Diego St.	104.0	108.4	105.5	106.0
54	Arizona	107.3	101.9	106.5	105.2
55	Miami	104.2	104.7	105.1	104.7
56	Illinois	105.4	103.9	104.5	104.6
57	Minnesota	105.2	103.5	104.5	104.4
58	Texas Tech	107.1	98.9	106.7	104.2
59	Northwestern	104.1	104.3	103.9	104.1
60	Toledo	103.2	104.2	104.7	104.0
61	Texas	105.0	101.7	105.0	103.9
62	Louisiana Tech	103.4	103.6	104.5	103.8
63	Western Michigan	102.3	103.2	103.7	103.1
64	Kansas St.	106.1	96.3	105.3	102.6
65	Colorado	104.7	99.6	102.4	102.2
66	Virginia	101.6	99.7	101.3	100.9
67	Kentucky	102.5	98.0	100.7	100.4
68	Vanderbilt	101.5	97.7	101.7	100.3
69	Utah St.	99.5	99.8	99.5	99.6
70	Boston College	99.2	102.0	97.6	99.6
71	Northern Illinois	97.0	100.9	97.9	98.6
72	Iowa St.	99.6	95.9	99.4	98.3
73	Appalachian St.	96.4	99.3	98.2	98.0
74	Air Force	96.6	100.8	96.0	97.8
75	Georgia Southern	95.9	98.7	96.8	97.1
76	Indiana	96.5	96.5	95.8	96.3
77	Wake Forest	95.2	98.5	94.5	96.1
78	Marshall	95.4	96.3	95.6	95.8
79	South Florida	93.3	99.1	94.4	95.6
80	Purdue	96.4	95.3	94.9	95.5
81	Maryland	95.0	94.1	94.9	94.7
82	East Carolina	92.6	96.2	93.1	94.0
83	Syracuse	93.3	95.7	92.2	93.7
84	Rutgers	94.7	91.4	92.7	92.9
85	Arkansas St.	92.1	93.2	93.3	92.9
86	Middle Tennessee	93.3	92.3	92.9	92.8
87	Central Michigan	90.7	95.0	92.8	92.8
88	Southern Mississippi	91.7	93.8	92.5	92.7
89	San Jose St.	91.7	94.4	91.9	92.7
90	Colorado St.	92.7	92.0	91.9	92.2
91	Tulsa	90.2	94.5	91.2	92.0
92	Connecticut	88.8	93.7	90.0	90.8
93	Florida International	89.8	92.2	89.9	90.6
94	Nevada	89.1	93.0	88.9	90.3
95	New Mexico	89.0	90.0	88.2	89.1
96	Oregon St.	90.4	87.1	88.2	88.6
97	Ohio	85.7	89.8	87.0	87.5
98	Buffalo	83.2	89.3	85.0	85.8
99	Tulane	85.2	87.4	84.4	85.7
100	Akron	83.2	88.9	84.7	85.6
101	UNLV	84.0	86.5	85.4	85.3
102	Massachusetts	84.1	86.9	84.8	85.3
103	SMU	83.9	87.8	83.5	85.1
104	Troy	83.7	85.1	85.2	84.7
105	UL-Lafayette	83.5	86.2	83.8	84.5
106	Rice	82.8	85.9	82.7	83.8
107	Florida Atlantic	82.3	85.4	83.1	83.6
108	Hawaii	82.0	83.7	80.9	82.2
109	Army	77.9	86.7	79.4	81.3
110	Ball St.	80.4	82.6	81.0	81.3
111	Fresno St.	80.1	83.6	78.1	80.6
112	Kent St.	79.5	82.2	80.1	80.6
113	Wyoming	80.1	81.6	78.9	80.2
114	Central Florida	79.1	82.1	79.4	80.2
115	UT-San Antonio	78.8	81.3	79.2	79.8
116	UTEP	77.1	79.8	77.0	78.0
117	Georgia St.	77.3	77.5	78.0	77.6
118	Old Dominion	76.3	80.7	75.7	77.6
119	Texas St.	76.6	79.8	76.2	77.5
120	South Alabama	74.8	80.9	75.9	77.2
121	Miami (O)	74.1	79.0	74.7	75.9
122	Idaho	73.0	78.3	74.1	75.1
123	North Texas	72.6	76.6	72.7	74.0
124	Kansas	75.7	69.3	73.4	72.8
125	UL-Monroe	73.2	72.1	73.2	72.8
126	Eastern Michigan	70.7	76.9	70.0	72.5
127	New Mexico St.	71.6	73.3	71.7	72.2
128	Charlotte	68.4	70.6	68.5	69.2

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Baylor
5	Notre Dame
6	LSU
7	Oklahoma
8	Stanford
9	Iowa
10	Utah
11	TCU
12	Florida
13	Oklahoma St.
14	Michigan
15	Michigan St.
16	Houston
17	USC
18	Mississippi St.
19	North Carolina
20	Memphis
21	Ole Miss
22	Navy
23	UCLA
24	Florida St.
25	Northwestern
26	Temple
27	BYU
28	Wisconsin
29	Tennessee
30	Boise St.
31	Toledo
32	Texas A&M
33	Bowling Green
34	Oregon
35	Penn St.
36	Western Kentucky
37	Arkansas
38	Washington St.
39	Georgia
40	Pittsburgh
41	California
42	Miami (Fla)
43	West Virginia
44	Auburn
45	Washington
46	Cincinnati
47	Duke
48	Louisville
49	North Carolina St.
50	Appalachian St.
51	Western Michigan
52	Louisiana Tech
53	San Diego St.
54	Northern Illinois
55	Illinois
56	Texas Tech
57	Georgia Southern
58	Arizona St.
59	Nebraska
60	Georgia Tech
61	Central Michigan
62	Air Force
63	Kansas St.
64	Minnesota
65	Virginia Tech
66	Marshall
67	South Florida
68	Utah St.
69	Arkansas St.
70	Texas
71	Indiana
72	Arizona
73	South Carolina
74	Connecticut
75	Southern Miss.
76	Tulsa
77	Virginia
78	Iowa St.
79	Kentucky
80	Missouri
81	Buffalo
82	Vanderbilt
83	Maryland
84	Middle Tennessee
85	San Jose St.
86	East Carolina
87	Ohio
88	Rutgers
89	Syracuse
90	Boston College
91	Colorado
92	Louisiana-Lafayette
93	Colorado St.
94	Akron
95	New Mexico
96	Nevada
97	South Alabama
98	Purdue
99	Wake Forest
100	Oregon St.
101	Troy
102	Florida Int’l.
103	Old Dominion
104	UNLV
105	Rice
106	Kent St.
107	Ball St.
108	Tulane
109	SMU
110	Army
111	Texas St.
112	UTEP
113	Idaho
114	Massachusetts
115	Florida Atlantic
116	Georgia St.
117	Fresno St.
118	Hawaii
119	Miami (O)
120	Kansas
121	UTSA
122	New Mexico St.
123	Wyoming
124	Louisiana-Monroe
125	North Texas
126	Charlotte
127	Eastern Michigan
128	Central Florida

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	115.7	111.9	115.0	114.2
2	Pac-12	113.0	108.4	112.3	111.2
3	Big 12	110.6	105.1	110.4	108.7
4	ACC	107.5	108.3	107.1	107.6
5	Big Ten	107.0	105.7	106.5	106.4
6	Indep.	102.4	104.2	103.1	103.2
7	AAC	95.7	99.2	96.4	97.1
8	MWC	91.8	93.6	91.4	92.3
9	MAC	87.8	91.7	89.0	89.5
10	CUSA	86.0	88.0	86.2	86.7
11	SBC	81.6	84.0	82.4	82.7

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	5-0	8-1	108.8	110.9	109.5	109.7
Cincinnati	2-3	5-4	105.3	107.2	107.1	106.5
South Florida	3-2	5-4	93.3	99.1	94.4	95.6
East Carolina	2-4	4-6	92.6	96.2	93.1	94.0
Connecticut	3-3	5-5	88.8	93.7	90.0	90.8
Central Florida	0-6	0-10	79.1	82.1	79.4	80.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	5-0	9-0	109.9	115.9	112.1	112.6
Memphis	4-1	8-1	106.5	107.4	107.1	107.0
Navy	5-0	7-1	104.6	108.1	105.4	106.0
Tulsa	2-3	5-4	90.2	94.5	91.2	92.0
Tulane	1-5	2-7	85.2	87.4	84.4	85.7
SMU	0-5	1-8	83.9	87.8	83.5	85.1
AAC Averages			95.7	99.2	96.4	97.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	6-0	9-0	122.9	124.1	123.6	123.5
Florida St.	5-2	7-2	114.1	114.8	113.4	114.1
North Carolina St.	2-3	6-3	110.4	112.2	109.4	110.7
Louisville	4-2	5-4	107.5	110.2	107.3	108.3
Boston College	0-7	3-7	99.2	102.0	97.6	99.6
Wake Forest	1-5	3-6	95.2	98.5	94.5	96.1
Syracuse	1-4	3-6	93.3	95.7	92.2	93.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	5-0	8-1	120.3	120.8	120.6	120.6
Georgia Tech	1-5	3-6	112.7	110.3	111.3	111.4
Virginia Tech	2-3	4-5	110.2	109.9	110.0	110.0
Pittsburgh	4-1	6-3	106.8	107.3	107.4	107.2
Duke	3-2	6-3	106.1	106.3	106.2	106.2
Miami	3-2	6-3	104.2	104.7	105.1	104.7
Virginia	2-3	3-6	101.6	99.7	101.3	100.9
ACC Averages			107.5	108.3	107.1	107.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Baylor	5-0	8-0	127.8	124.0	128.1	126.6
Oklahoma	5-1	8-1	127.0	123.7	127.6	126.1
TCU	5-1	8-1	126.0	117.7	126.4	123.4
Oklahoma St.	6-0	9-0	119.2	116.6	119.8	118.5
West Virginia	1-4	4-4	112.9	106.9	111.9	110.6
Texas Tech	2-5	5-5	107.1	98.9	106.7	104.2
Texas	3-3	4-5	105.0	101.7	105.0	103.9
Kansas St.	0-5	3-5	106.1	96.3	105.3	102.6
Iowa St.	2-4	3-6	99.6	95.9	99.4	98.3
Kansas	0-6	0-9	75.7	69.3	73.4	72.8
Big 12 Averages			110.6	105.1	110.4	108.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	5-0	9-0	128.5	123.1	129.3	127.0
Michigan	4-1	7-2	119.0	116.2	119.1	118.1
Michigan St.	4-1	8-1	115.5	112.3	114.8	114.2
Penn St.	4-2	7-3	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5
Indiana	0-5	4-5	96.5	96.5	95.8	96.3
Maryland	0-5	2-7	95.0	94.1	94.9	94.7
Rutgers	1-5	3-6	94.7	91.4	92.7	92.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	5-1	8-2	112.7	112.3	111.8	112.3
Iowa	5-0	9-0	110.7	112.9	111.3	111.6
Nebraska	2-4	4-6	108.4	106.6	107.6	107.5
Illinois	2-3	5-4	105.4	103.9	104.5	104.6
Minnesota	1-4	4-5	105.2	103.5	104.5	104.4
Northwestern	3-2	7-2	104.1	104.3	103.9	104.1
Purdue	1-4	2-7	96.4	95.3	94.9	95.5
Big Ten Averages			107.0	105.7	106.5	106.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	6-0	8-2	105.6	105.7	106.6	106.0
Marshall	5-1	8-2	95.4	96.3	95.6	95.8
Middle Tennessee	3-2	4-5	93.3	92.3	92.9	92.8
Florida International	3-3	5-5	89.8	92.2	89.9	90.6
Florida Atlantic	2-4	2-7	82.3	85.4	83.1	83.6
Old Dominion	2-3	4-5	76.3	80.7	75.7	77.6
Charlotte	0-6	2-7	68.4	70.6	68.5	69.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	5-1	7-3	103.4	103.6	104.5	103.8
Southern Mississippi	4-1	6-3	91.7	93.8	92.5	92.7
Rice	2-3	4-5	82.8	85.9	82.7	83.8
UT-San Antonio	1-4	1-8	78.8	81.3	79.2	79.8
UTEP	2-3	4-5	77.1	79.8	77.0	78.0
North Texas	1-5	1-8	72.6	76.6	72.7	74.0
CUSA Averages			86.0	88.0	86.2	86.7
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		8-1	123.1	120.2	123.1	122.1
BYU		7-2	106.2	105.6	106.8	106.2
Army		2-7	77.9	86.7	79.4	81.3
Independents Averages			102.4	104.2	103.1	103.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	5-0	7-2	107.8	112.8	110.9	110.5
Ohio	2-3	5-4	85.7	89.8	87.0	87.5
Buffalo	3-2	5-4	83.2	89.3	85.0	85.8
Akron	2-3	4-5	83.2	88.9	84.7	85.6
Massachusetts	0-5	1-8	84.1	86.9	84.8	85.3
Kent St.	2-3	3-6	79.5	82.2	80.1	80.6
Miami (O)	1-5	2-8	74.1	79.0	74.7	75.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	4-1	7-1	103.2	104.2	104.7	104.0
Western Michigan	5-0	6-3	102.3	103.2	103.7	103.1
Northern Illinois	4-1	6-3	97.0	100.9	97.9	98.6
Central Michigan	4-1	5-4	90.7	95.0	92.8	92.8
Ball St.	2-4	3-7	80.4	82.6	81.0	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-6	1-9	70.7	76.9	70.0	72.5
MAC Averages			87.8	91.7	89.0	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	4-1	7-2	112.4	109.0	112.1	111.2
Utah St.	4-2	5-4	99.5	99.8	99.5	99.6
Air Force	4-1	6-3	96.6	100.8	96.0	97.8
Colorado St.	2-3	4-5	92.7	92.0	91.9	92.2
New Mexico	3-2	5-4	89.0	90.0	88.2	89.1
Wyoming	1-5	1-9	80.1	81.6	78.9	80.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	5-0	6-3	104.0	108.4	105.5	106.0
San Jose St.	3-2	4-5	91.7	94.4	91.9	92.7
Nevada	3-2	5-4	89.1	93.0	88.9	90.3
UNLV	2-3	3-6	84.0	86.5	85.4	85.3
Hawaii	0-6	2-8	82.0	83.7	80.9	82.2
Fresno St.	1-5	2-7	80.1	83.6	78.1	80.6
MWC Averages			91.8	93.6	91.4	92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	7-0	8-1	124.2	122.3	124.6	123.7
Oregon	4-2	6-3	117.1	110.8	116.7	114.9
California	2-4	5-4	115.1	109.4	114.2	112.9
Washington	2-4	4-5	110.1	107.1	110.4	109.2
Washington St.	4-2	6-3	107.4	103.8	107.7	106.3
Oregon St.	0-6	2-7	90.4	87.1	88.2	88.6
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	4-2	6-3	122.0	118.1	122.0	120.7
Utah	5-1	8-1	121.9	116.8	121.4	120.0
UCLA	4-2	7-2	122.2	116.2	120.8	119.7
Arizona St.	2-4	4-5	113.6	108.1	112.1	111.3
Arizona	2-5	5-5	107.3	101.9	106.5	105.2
Colorado	1-5	4-6	104.7	99.6	102.4	102.2
Pac-12 Averages			113.0	108.4	112.3	111.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	3-3	5-4	120.6	116.5	120.4	119.2
Florida	6-1	8-1	119.4	116.0	119.4	118.3
Georgia	4-3	6-3	117.2	110.7	116.1	114.7
Missouri	1-5	4-5	108.4	104.8	107.3	106.8
South Carolina	1-6	3-6	108.3	104.8	106.8	106.6
Kentucky	2-5	4-5	102.5	98.0	100.7	100.4
Vanderbilt	1-4	3-6	101.5	97.7	101.7	100.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	5-1	8-1	129.6	127.4	129.5	128.8
LSU	4-1	7-1	123.6	120.8	123.7	122.7
Ole Miss	4-2	7-3	122.2	116.9	120.1	119.7
Arkansas	3-2	5-4	118.8	113.6	118.0	116.8
Mississippi St.	3-2	7-2	116.7	113.4	117.2	115.8
Auburn	2-4	5-4	116.0	113.6	115.4	115.0
Texas A&M	3-3	6-3	115.6	112.1	113.4	113.7
SEC Averages			115.7	111.9	115.0	114.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	4-1	7-2	96.4	99.3	98.2	98.0
Georgia Southern	4-1	6-2	95.9	98.7	96.8	97.1
Arkansas St.	5-0	6-3	92.1	93.2	93.3	92.9
Troy	2-3	3-6	83.7	85.1	85.2	84.7
UL-Lafayette	3-1	4-4	83.5	86.2	83.8	84.5
Georgia St.	1-3	2-6	77.3	77.5	78.0	77.6
Texas St.	1-3	2-6	76.6	79.8	76.2	77.5
South Alabama	2-2	4-4	74.8	80.9	75.9	77.2
Idaho	2-4	3-6	73.0	78.3	74.1	75.1
UL-Monroe	0-5	1-8	73.2	72.1	73.2	72.8
New Mexico St.	2-3	2-7	71.6	73.3	71.7	72.2
Sun Belt Averages			81.6	84.0	82.4	82.7

NCAA Playoff Projections
1	Clemson
2	Alabama
3	Ohio St.
4	Notre Dame

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team
1	Houston
2	Navy
3	Temple
4	Memphis
5	Boise St.

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team
10	Boston College
9	Iowa St.
8	Indiana
7	Wake Forest
6	Purdue
5	Maryland
4	Syracuse
3	Rutgers
2	Oregon St.
1	Kansas

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	96.9
2	Harvard	94.2
3	North Dakota St.	91.9
4	McNeese St.	91.7
5	Dartmouth	91.5
6	Dayton	91.3
7	Charleston Southern	90.2
8	South Dakota St.	90.0
9	Illinois St.	89.6
10	Coastal Carolina	89.6

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 10
Ohio	Kent St.	8.7	10.1	9.4
Central Michigan	Toledo	-10.0	-6.7	9.4
Wednesday, November 11
Buffalo	Northern Illinois	-10.8	-8.6	-9.9
Western Michigan	Bowling Green	-2.5	-6.6	-4.2
Thursday, November 12
South Alabama	Louisiana-Lafayette	-6.2	-2.8	-5.4
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	5.5	3.4	4.3
Friday, November 13
Colorado	USC	-14.3	-15.5	-16.6
Saturday, November 14
Duke	Pittsburgh	1.8	1.5	1.3
Auburn	Georgia	1.8	5.9	2.3
South Carolina	Florida	-8.1	-8.2	-9.6
Tennessee	North Texas	51.0	42.9	50.7
Army	Tulane	-4.3	2.3	-2.0
West Virginia	Texas	10.9	8.2	9.9
Illinois	Ohio St.	-20.1	-16.2	-21.8
TCU	Kansas	53.3	51.4	56.0
Michigan St.	Maryland	23.5	21.2	22.9
Northwestern	Purdue	10.2	11.5	11.5
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tennessee	-8.5	-4.4	-7.3
Miami (O)	Akron	-7.1	-7.9	-8.0
Old Dominion	UTEP	2.2	3.9	1.7
Florida St.	North Carolina St.	6.7	5.6	7.0
Louisville	Virginia	8.9	13.5	9.0
Charlotte	UTSA	-7.9	-8.2	-8.2
Air Force	Utah St.	0.1	4.0	-0.5
Eastern Michigan	Massachusetts	-11.4	-8.0	-12.8
Louisana-Monroe	Arkansas St.	-16.4	-18.6	-17.6
Arizona St.	Washington	6.5	4.0	4.7
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	19.1	19.1	18.5
Notre Dame	Wake Forest	30.9	24.7	31.6
Syracuse	Clemson	-26.6	-25.4	-28.4
Mississippi St.	Alabama	-9.9	-11	-9.3
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	-16.6	-17.7	-17.4
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	8.6	7.1	8.7
Rutgers	Nebraska	-11.2	-12.7	-12.4
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	4.0	5.6	4.4
Indiana	Michigan	-19.5	-16.7	-20.3
Troy	Georgia Southern	-9.7	-11.1	-9.1
Rice	Southern Miss.	-6.4	-5.4	-7.3
Navy	SMU	23.7	23.3	24.9
Nevada	San Jose St.	-0.1	1.1	-0.5
Texas St.	Georgia St.	1.8	4.8	0.7
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	1.0	1.7	3.0
Idaho	Appalachian St.	-20.4	-18.0	-21.1
South Florida	Temple	-12.5	-8.8	-12.1
Colorado St.	UNLV	11.7	8.5	9.5
Houston	Memphis	6.4	11.5	8.0
LSU	Arkansas	7.8	10.2	8.7
Stanford	Oregon	10.1	14.5	10.9
Missouri *	BYU	[3.2]	[0.2]	[1.5]
Cincinnati	Tulsa	18.1	15.7	18.9
Baylor	Oklahoma	3.8	3.3	3.5
Iowa	Minnesota	8.5	12.4	9.8
Arizona	Utah	-11.6	-11.9	-11.9
Boise St.	New Mexico	26.4	22.0	26.9
San Diego St.	Wyoming	26.9	29.8	29.6
California	Oregon St.	27.7	25.3	29.0
UCLA	Washington St.	17.8	15.4	16.1
Hawaii	Fresno St.	5.9	4.1	6.8
FBS vs. FCS	Week 11	PiRate
Texas A&M	Western Carolina	29
* Ongoing Strike of Missouri Football Team May Force Forfeiture Of This Game In Kansas City

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	vs.	Appalachian St.
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Rice
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Washington St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	vs.	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Central Michigan	vs.	Utah St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Washington * ^	vs.	Northern Illinois
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Boise St.	vs.	California *
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Bowling Green	vs.	Arkansas St.
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Toledo
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Tulsa	vs.	BYU
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	Houston	vs.	Marshall
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	Oregon
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Akron *	vs.	UTEP
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	vs.	Rutgers
Independence	SEC	ACC	Arkansas	vs.	Miami (Fla)
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Indiana	vs.	UCLA
Military	ACC	AAC	Navy	vs.	Virginia Tech
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Ohio *	vs.	Nevada *
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Buffalo *	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Colorado St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	vs.	Kentucky
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	vs.	Auburn
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Georgia
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	North Carolina	vs.	Michigan
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Stanford
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Alabama	vs.	Ohio St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	vs.	USC
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	vs.	Florida
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	LSU
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	vs.	Notre Dame
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Clemson	vs.	Temple
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Louisville	vs.	Mississippi St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Ole Miss
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	Utah
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Stanford	vs.	Alabama
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Washington qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 15-19, 2011

“Are You Nuts?”

One of our loyal readers asked this question of us last week, when we had Texas A&M ranked number 11, even though the Aggies were 5-4.

 

The short answer to that question is, “probably,” but that is beside the point.  The PiRate Ratings are not rankings based on what a team has done to this point in the season.  Our ratings are 95% predictive; they are meant to indicate where a team is for the coming week’s games.

 

So, even though the future SEC member lost to drop to 5-5, Texas A&M remains at number 14 in the PiRate Ratings.

 

Let us take a look back at yesteryear to further explain how a team like A&M could still be ranked so highly.  We’ll set the time machine back to 1957.  The PiRate Ratings had not yet been created, since none of the PiRates had been created.

 

The team in question in 1957 is Illinois.  The Fighting Illini finished 4-5 that year (Big Ten teams only played nine games a year until the 1960’s and Ohio State still played nine games in 1969).

 

To say that Illinois faced a tough schedule is an understatement.  It was brutal.  The boys from Champaign-Urbana finished the season 4-5, yet some ratings that year gave them the merit they deserved and ranked them in their final ratings.  Even the AP had them rated in the top 20 after seven games, when their record was 3-4.

 

Coach Ray Eliot had some stars on that team, two of whom you may have heard about, because they are in the NFL Hall of Fame.  Linebacker Ray Nitschke became one of the best ever defenders in the NFL, as he led the great Green Bay Packer defenses to five NFL Championships.  Bobby Mitchell began his NFL career as the other back in the Cleveland Browns’ backfield (to Jim Brown).  He earned his Hall of Fame induction after he was traded to the Washington Redskins and was moved to flanker, where he was on the receiving end of hundreds of Sonny Jergensen passes.

 

Illinois opened the season against UCLA at the L. A. Coliseum.  Coach Red Sanders’ Bruins were picked to win the Pacific Coast Conference and go to the Rose Bowl.  They had already played Air Force and won 47-0.  Illinois gave UCLA a good game, but the Bruins prevailed 16-6 en route to an 8-2 season.

 

The following week, Illinois blew out Colgate 40-0.  At 1-1, the Illini ventured to Columbus, Ohio, to take on Ohio State.  The Buckeyes would emerge as the UPI National Champion, as Woody Hayes’ Scarlet and Gray epitomized his “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense that year, setting Ohio State rushing records.  Illinois fought hard and still had a chance to win late in the game, but Ohio State prevailed 21-7.

 

The Illini returned home the following week and hosted number four Minnesota.  The Gophers were 3-0, outscoring opponents 108 to 30.  Illinois played spectacularly and not only pulled off the upset, they slaughtered the Gophers 34-13.

 

Illinois entered the top 20 at number 16 the next week.  The following week, Illinois played at number eight Michigan State (who would finish the season at number two in the UPI Poll and number one in a couple of polls).  The Illini gave Sparty a great game, falling short 19-14 to fall to 2-3.

 

Next up was a visit from Purdue, the only team to beat Michigan State in 1957.  The Boilermakers had the best quarterback in the Big Ten and a future NFL Hall of Famer in Len Dawson.  Illinois fell 21-6, and their record was now 2-4.

 

The following week, Illinois pulled off another big upset, besting number 11 Michigan 20-19.  At 3-4, the Illini actually moved back into the top 20 at number 15.

 

Illinois could not catch a break, as they had to venture to Camp Randall Stadium to play rival Wisconsin, yet another team headed to a finish in the rankings, at number 14.  UW won 24-13, and Illinois was assured of a losing season.

 

The season ended with a visit from rival Northwestern, and Illinois wiped the Wildcats off the field with a 27-0 win to cap off what could have been the best season ever by a team with a losing record.

 

Back to 2011.  Texas A&M began the season with a blowout of SMU, a team that will be bowl bound this year.  They disposed of a weak Idaho team in week two.  In week three, they fell to current number two Oklahoma State 30-29 after blowing a 17-point lead.  They followed it up with a similar loss to current number six Arkansas, blowing a large lead before losing 42-38.  After a five-point win over Texas Tech, before the Red Raiders collapsed, A&M put a major whipping on Baylor by 27 points.  They won at Iowa State by 16 to move to 5-2.  The Aggies have lost three in a row since then, blowing yet another large lead to future SEC rival Missouri, losing to Oklahoma in a game where they proved to be good enough to compete if they had eliminated mistakes, and losing in four overtimes to Kansas State.

 

At 5-5, Texas A&M could easily be 9-1 with wins over Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Kansas State.  They finish with Kansas and Texas and could easily be 6-6 when the bowl are doled out.  They could be pitted against another 6-6 or 7-5 team in their bowl, and it very well may be a huge mismatch.

 

Congrats to Ron English

It went mostly unnoticed this week, but Eastern Michigan became bowl-eligible with a win over Buffalo.  The 6-4 Eagles were expected to win maybe two or three games this year, which would have been a major improvement in itself.  EMU was a combined 2-22 in 2009 and 2010.

 

Here are the PiRate Ratings For This Week

 

#	Team	PiRate
1	L S U	135.5
2	Alabama	135.0
3	Oregon	132.0
4	Oklahoma St.	131.6
5	Oklahoma	131.6
6	Stanford	129.6
7	Wisconsin	124.8
8	Southern Cal	123.9
9	Florida St.	122.6
10	Arkansas	121.9
11	Boise St.	120.2
12	Georgia	119.8
13	Notre Dame	119.5
14	Texas A&M	119.3
15	Missouri	117.2
16	Michigan St.	116.4
17	Texas	115.8
18	Michigan	115.7
19	Nebraska	114.9
20	T C U	114.8
21	S. Carolina	114.7
22	Houston	114.5
23	Clemson	114.3
24	Utah	113.1
25	Virginia Tech	113.0
26	Arizona St.	112.8
27	Kansas St.	112.7
28	Miami (FL)	112.5
29	Florida	112.3
30	Washington	110.7
31	Mississippi St.	110.5
32	California	110.0
33	Tulsa	108.7
34	Cincinnati	108.7
35	B Y U	108.4
36	Ohio St.	108.4
37	Vanderbilt	108.1
38	Southern Miss.	107.6
39	Penn St.	107.1
40	W. Virginia	107.0
41	Nevada	106.2
42	Georgia Tech	106.1
43	Baylor	106.0
44	Pittsburgh	104.6
45	U C L A	104.5
46	Iowa	103.9
47	Virginia	103.6
48	Auburn	103.6
49	Northwestern	103.3
50	N. Carolina	103.2
51	Wake Forest	103.2
52	Washington St.	102.8
53	LouisianaTech	102.8
54	S. Florida	102.7
55	N. Carolina St.	101.7
56	Oregon St.	101.7
57	Tennessee	101.6
58	Arizona	101.4
59	Illinois	101.3
60	Louisville	99.9
61	Purdue	99.3
62	Utah St.	99.3
63	Rutgers	99.1
64	Boston Coll.	98.9
65	Toledo	98.2
66	Iowa St.	98.2
67	Air Force	97.9
68	Temple	97.3
69	Northern Illinois	97.3
70	San Diego St.	97.2
71	Texas Tech	97.2
72	Central Florida	96.9
73	Navy	96.7
74	Hawaii	96.6
75	Duke	96.2
76	Wyoming	95.9
77	Connecticut	95.3
78	Colorado	95.3
79	S M U	94.3
80	Arkansas St.	93.5
81	Minnesota	93.3
82	Maryland	93.2
83	Western Michigan	93.1
84	San Jose St.	92.0
85	Syracuse	91.3
86	Miami (O)	91.1
87	Kentucky	91.1
88	Ole Miss	90.5
89	Kansas	90.3
90	East Carolina	90.1
91	Fresno St.	89.4
92	Ohio U	88.9
93	U T E P	88.4
94	Western Ky.	87.8
95	Florida Int’l	87.7
96	New Mexico St.	85.8
97	Marshall	85.8
98	Army	85.6
99	UL-Lafayette	85.4
100	UL-Monroe	85.4
101	Colorado St.	84.4
102	Rice	84.1
103	Idaho	83.8
104	Indiana	83.2
105	Bowling Green	82.5
106	Ball St.	82.2
107	Kent St.	81.2
108	Eastern Michigan	80.9
109	North Texas	80.1
110	U A B	78.2
111	U N L V	78.1
112	Central Michigan	77.7
113	Troy	75.8
114	Middle Tennessee	73.5
115	Buffalo	73.0
116	New Mexico	70.4
117	Tulane	67.7
118	Memphis	66.8
119	Akron	65.1
120	Florida Atlantic	63.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
FloridaState	5-2	7-3	122.6
Clemson	6-1	9-1	114.3
WakeForest	4-3	5-5	103.2
North CarolinaState	2-4	5-5	101.7
BostonCollege	2-5	3-7	98.9
Maryland	1-5	2-8	93.2
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	5-1	9-1	113.0
Miami-FL	3-4	5-5	112.5
Georgia Tech	4-3	7-3	106.1
Virginia	4-2	7-3	103.6
North Carolina	2-4	6-4	103.2
Duke	1-5	3-7	96.2

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	3-1	7-2	108.7
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	107.0
Pittsburgh	3-2	5-5	104.6
South Florida	1-4	5-4	102.7
Louisville	3-2	5-5	99.9
Rutgers	3-2	7-3	99.1
Connecticut	2-2	4-5	95.3
Syracuse	1-4	5-5	91.3

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Wisconsin	4-2	8-2	124.8
OhioState	3-3	6-4	108.4
PennState	5-1	8-2	107.1
Illinois	2-4	6-4	101.3
Purdue	3-3	5-5	99.3
Indiana	0-6	1-9	83.2
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
MichiganState	5-1	8-2	116.4
Michigan	4-2	8-2	115.7
Nebraska	4-2	8-2	114.9
Iowa	3-3	6-4	103.9
Northwestern	2-4	5-5	103.3
Minnesota	1-5	2-8	93.3

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma State	7-0	10-0	131.6
Oklahoma	5-1	8-1	131.6
Texas A&M	3-4	5-5	119.3
Missouri	3-4	5-5	117.2
Texas	3-3	6-3	115.8
Kansas State	5-2	8-2	112.7
Baylor	3-3	6-3	106.0
Iowa State	2-4	5-4	98.2
Texas Tech	2-5	5-5	97.2
Kansas	0-7	2-8	90.3

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	5-1	9-1	107.6
Central Florida	2-4	4-6	96.9
East Carolina	3-3	4-6	90.1
Marshall	3-3	4-6	85.8
U A B	2-5	2-8	78.2
Memphis	1-4	2-8	66.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	6-0	10-0	114.5
Tulsa	6-0	7-3	108.7
S M U	4-2	6-4	94.3
U T E P	2-4	5-5	88.4
Rice	2-4	3-7	84.1
Tulane	1-6	2-9	67.7

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-3	119.5
B Y U		7-3	108.4
Navy		4-6	96.7
Army		3-7	85.6

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	4-3	6-4	97.3
Miami (O)	3-3	4-6	91.1
Ohio U	4-2	7-3	88.9
Bowling Green	2-4	4-6	82.5
Kent St.	3-3	4-6	81.2
Buffalo	1-5	2-8	73.0
Akron	0-6	1-9	65.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Toledo	5-1	6-4	98.2
Northern Illinois	5-1	7-3	97.3
Western Michigan	3-3	5-5	93.1
Ball State	4-2	6-4	82.2
Eastern Michigan	4-2	6-4	80.9
Central Michigan	2-5	3-8	77.7

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	3-1	8-1	120.2
T C U	5-0	8-2	114.8
Air Force	1-4	5-5	97.9
San Diego State	3-2	6-3	97.2
Wyoming	3-1	6-3	95.9
Colorado State	1-3	3-6	84.4
UNLV	1-3	2-7	78.1
New Mexico	1-4	1-9	70.4

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-0	9-1	132.0
Stanford	7-1	9-1	129.6
Washington	4-3	6-4	110.7
California	3-4	6-4	110.0
WashingtonState	2-5	4-6	102.8
OregonState	2-5	2-8	101.7
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
U S C	5-2	8-2	123.9
Utah	3-4	6-4	113.1
ArizonaState	4-3	6-4	112.8
U C L A	4-3	5-5	104.5
Arizona	1-6	2-8	101.4
Colorado	1-6	2-9	95.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia	6-1	8-2	119.8
South Carolina	6-2	8-2	114.7
Florida	3-5	5-5	112.3
Vanderbilt	2-5	5-5	108.1
Tennessee	0-6	4-6	101.6
Kentucky	1-5	4-6	91.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
L S U	6-0	10-0	135.5
Alabama	6-1	9-1	135.0
Arkansas	5-1	9-1	121.9
Mississippi State	1-5	5-5	110.5
Auburn	4-3	6-4	103.6
Ole Miss	0-6	2-8	90.5

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Arkansas State	6-0	8-2	93.5
Western Kentucky	5-1	5-5	87.8
Florida International	3-3	6-4	87.7
Louisiana-Monroe	2-4	3-7	85.9
U. of Louisiana	6-2	8-3	84.9
North Texas	3-3	4-6	80.1
Troy	1-4	2-7	75.8
Middle Tennessee	1-4	2-7	73.5
Florida Atlantic	0-6	0-9	63.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nevada	4-0	6-3	106.2
Louisiana Tech	4-1	6-4	102.8
Utah State	2-2	4-5	99.3
Hawaii	3-3	5-5	96.6
San Jose State	2-4	3-7	92.0
Fresno State	2-3	3-7	89.4
New Mexico State	2-3	4-6	85.8
Idaho	1-4	2-8	83.8

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads.

 

Tuesday, November 15		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Ball St.	18.1	42-24	17
Wednesday, November 16		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
MIAMI (O)	Western Michigan	1.0	34-33	1
Ohio U	BOWLING GREEN	3.9	31-27	5
Thursday, November 17		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
VIRGINIA TECH	North Carolina	13.3	23-10	13
Marshall	MEMPHIS	16.5	34-17	13
Southern Miss.	U A B	26.9	37-10	22 1/2
Friday, November 18		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
Toledo	CENTRAL MICHIGAN	18.0	45-27	15
Oklahoma St.	IOWA ST.	30.4	47-17	27 1/2
Saturday, November 19		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
NORTHWESTERN	Minnesota	13.0	34-21	15 1/2
Wisconsin	ILLINOIS	20.5	38-17	13 1/2
Iowa	PURDUE	1.6	28-26	2 1/2
MICHIGAN ST.	Indiana	36.7	51-17	28
Louisville	CONNECTICUT	1.6	24-22	1
Georgia Tech	DUKE	7.4	31-24	10
WAKE FOREST	Maryland	12.5	30-17	12
FLORIDA ST.	Virginia	22.0	38-16	18
Clemson	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	9.6	27-17	10
BUFFALO	Akron	10.4	31-21	10
GEORGIA	Kentucky	32.2	42-10	29 1/2
Vanderbilt	TENNESSEE	3.5	28-24	1
MISSOURI	Texas Tech	23.0	44-21	16 1/2
KENT ST.	Eastern Michigan	2.8	31-28	6 1/2
TEMPLE	Army	14.2	31-17	NL
WYOMING	New Mexico	28.5	42-13	26
B Y U	New Mexico St.	25.6	45-19	22 1/2
Tulsa	U T E P	17.3	41-24	NL
RICE	Tulane	18.9	38-19	12 1/2
TEXAS A&M	Kansas	32.0	49-17	30
Utah	WASHINGTON ST.	6.8	30-23	6
L s u	OLE MISS	42.0	45-3	30 1/2
T C U	Colorado St.	33.4	40-7	35 1/2
Washington	OREGON ST.	6.0	30-24	3
ARIZONA ST.	Arizona	13.9	31-17	14 1/2
STANFORD	California	22.1	42-20	20 1/2
MICHIGAN	Nebraska	3.8	24-20	2 1/2
U C L A	Colorado	12.2	28-16	14
Central Florida	EAST CAROLINA	3.8	31-27	8
OHIO ST.	Penn St.	4.3	14-10	5 1/2
Cincinnati	RUTGERS	6.6	31-24	1 1/2
TEXAS	Kansas St.	6.1	34-28	7
NOTRE DAME	Boston College	23.6	34-10	24 1/2
Navy	SAN JOSE ST.	1.7	26-24	5 1/2
NEVADA	Louisiana Tech	6.9	35-28	7 1/2
Utah St.	IDAHO	12.5	37-24	7
AIR FORCE	U n l v	22.8	33-10	NL
HOUSTON	S m u	23.2	44-21	21 1/2
ARKANSAS	Mississippi St.	14.4	31-17	14 1/2
Miami (FL)	SOUTH FLORIDA	6.8	28-21	1 1/2
Oklahoma	BAYLOR	22.6	42-19	14
OREGON	Southern Cal	11.6	31-19	16 1/2
Boise St.	SAN DIEGO ST.	20.0	37-17	20
HAWAII	Fresno St.	11.2	35-24	4
TROY	Florida Atlantic	15.1	35-20	14 1/2
Western Kentucky	NORTH TEXAS	4.7	28-23	2 1/2
LOUISIANA-MONROE	Florida Int’l	0.7	28-27	-1
Arkansas St.	MIDDLETENNESSEE	18.5	31-12	11

 

 

And, here is our Bowl speculation for the week.

 

Bowl	Conference	Conference	Team	Team
New Mexico	MWC # 5	Pac12 #7 / WAC	Wyoming	Nevada
Famous Idaho Potato	MWC #2 or 4	WAC	Boise St.	Utah St.
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	C-USA	Arkansas St.	(Louisville)
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	C-USA	South Florida	Florida Int’l
Poinsettia	MWC #2 or 4	WAC	San Diego St.	Louisiana Tech
MAACO	MWC #1	Pac 12 #5	T C U	Utah
Hawaii	WAC	C-USA	Hawaii	S M U
Independence	ACC #7	MWC #3	Miami (Fl)	Air Force
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	MAC #2	Illinois	Toledo
Belk	ACC #5	Big East #3	North Carolina	West Va.
Military	ACC #8	Navy	Virginia	Navy
Holiday	Pac 12 #3	Big 12 #5	Arizona St.	Texas A&M
Champs Sports	Big East #2	ACC #3	Notre Dame	Florida St.
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Pac 10 #2	Kansas St.	Washington
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	B Y U	Marshall	B Y U
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Big 12 #7	Pittsburgh	(Northwestern)
Music City	SEC # 7	ACC #6	Mississippi St.	North Carolina St.
Insight	Big 12 #4	Big 10 #4 or 5	Missouri	Penn St.
Meineke Car Care of Texas	Big 12 #6	Big 10 #6	Baylor	Ohio St.
Sun	ACC #4	Pac 12 #4	Georgia Tech	California
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	Army/ACC	U C L A	Wake Forest
Liberty	SEC#8-9/BigEast	C-USA #1	Vanderbilt	Southern Miss.
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	ACC #2	Auburn	Clemson
TicketCity	Big 10 #7	C-USA	Iowa	Tulsa
Capital One	Big 10 #2	SEC #2	Michigan St.	Arkansas
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	SEC #6	Nebraska	Florida
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Big 10 #3	South Carolina	Michigan
Rose	BCS Pac12	BCS Big 10	Oregon	Wisconsin
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	BCS At-Large	Oklahoma	Stanford
Sugar	BCS SEC	BCS At-Large	Alabama	Houston
Orange	BCS ACC	BCS At-Large	Va. Tech	Rutgers
Cotton	Big 12 #2	SEC #3 or 4	Texas	Georgia
BBVA Compass	Big East#5/CUSA	SEC #8 or 9	Cincinnati	Western Ky.
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	MAC #1	Louisiana-Laf.	Northern Illinois
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	*** BCS #2 ***	L S U	Oklahoma St.

 

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 8-12, 2011

The Conference Races & The Bowls

The Search For 70 Bowl Eligible Teams

 

With 35 bowls, the Football Bowl Subdivision needs 70 bowl-eligible teams to fill those spots.  Remember, we cannot include Southern Cal in that list, because they are ineligible for a bowl game this year.  Since there are only 120 total FBS schools, it requires a lot of teams to get to six wins by virtue of defeating a team from the Football Championship Subdivision, formerly known as I-AA.  There are only four more FBS versus FCS games this year, all involving teams from the SEC.  Three of those SEC teams are already bowl eligible, so only the Florida-Furman game can help an FBS team become bowl eligible. 

 

If there are fewer than 70 bowl eligible teams, the NCAA supposedly will allow teams with a losing record to earn bowl bids.  The last team with a losing record to earn a bowl bid was North Texas in 2001, but the Mean Green earned their bid by winning the Sunbelt Conference championship.  William and Mary won the Southern Conference title and earned the automatic bid to the Tangerine Bowl, even though they were just 5-6 overall.  SMU, at 4-6, was invited to the Sun Bowl in 1963.  Will it happen again in 2011?  Let’s look at the conference breakdown and count who we think will make it.

 

ACC

Atlantic

Clemson leads Florida State and Wake Forest by one full game.  The Tigers have already defeated the Seminoles, and if they defeat Wake Forest this weekend, they will wrap up a spot in the ACC Championship Game.  If the Demon Deacons win, then all three teams will be alive having gone 1-1 against each other.

 

Coastal

Virginia Tech leads Georgia Tech by a half-game and Virginia by a full game, and the Hokies must play both teams.  They face Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Thursday. 

 

Bowl Eligible (6)

Florida St., Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia

 

Bowl Probable (3)

North Carolina St., Wake Forest, and Miami need each need one more win and each have two winnable games left.

 

Big East

All eight teams are still in contention to be bowl eligible.  Cincinnati leads with a 3-0 conference record, while Louisville is a half game back at 3-1, losing to the Bearcats in October.  West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Connecticut have two conference losses.

 

This race is a mess, and we believe that five of the eight teams will end up bowl eligible.  Throw in Notre Dame, since the Irish will not earn a BCS Bowl Bid, and you have six bowl eligibles.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Cincinnati, Notre Dame, West Virginia, and Rutgers

 

Bowl Probable (2)

Louisville and Syracuse

 

The Cardinals and the Orangemen both have five wins.  UL can win all three of their remaining games, so it should be a slam dunk for Coach Charlie Strong’s club.  Syracuse and South Florida square off at the Carrier Dome Friday night, and the loser will probably be eliminated.

 

We believe Pittsburgh and Connecticut will both fall a game short, but both still have legitimate shots at getting to six wins.  As for South Florida, the Bulls must win at Syracuse this week, or we believe they are out of the picture.

 

Big Ten

The first year of the 12-team Big Ten has been a disappointment as no teams are in contention for the big prize, and the Rose Bowl participant will more than likely have two or even three losses.

 

Bowl Eligible (8)

Wisconsin, Ohio St., Penn St., Illinois, Michigan St., Nebraska, Michigan, and Iowa

 

Bowl Probable (1)

Northwestern

 

Northwestern has four wins, but their next two games are at home against Rice and Minnesota.  We believe they will win both to become bowl eligible.

 

Purdue is 4-5.  They must upset either Ohio State or Iowa and then beat Indiana to become bowl eligible.  We do not see the Boilermakers becoming Spoilermakers this year.

 

Big 12

Oklahoma State has moved up to number two in the BCS Ratings, as they passed Alabama. We here at the PiRate Ratings still have Oklahoma rated a bit higher than Oklahoma State, but the Sooners’ have lost a key piece to their offense.  The big game OU-OSU game comes on December 3 in Stillwater at Boone Pickens Stadium.  Tickets for that game may be more expensive than a dozen barrels of oil.  The Cowboys get an extra week to prepare for the game, so all factors are on their side.  We think it will be a great game, but losing Ryan Broyles for the season will be a major blow for OU.  We call this game a tossup as of today.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Kansas St., and Texas

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Texas A&M, Missouri, and Baylor

 

Texas A&M and Baylor need one more win, as does Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Missouri needs two more wins.

 

A&M has been a major disappointment, but the Aggies still have a home game with Kansas and should easily win that one to become bowl eligible.

 

Baylor plays at Kansas this week and faces Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium on November 26.  The Bears will be in a bowl.

 

Missouri, just officially announced as the SEC’s 14^th team beginning next season, has a home game with Texas Tech and a season-ender with Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium.

 

Texas Tech fell apart after upsetting Oklahoma.  The Red Raiders finish with Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Baylor, and unless they pull off another big upset, they will stay home in December.

 

Iowa State needs one more win, but the Cyclones finish with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State.  The next big win in Ames may be won by Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, or Newt Gingrich at the Iowa Caucuses.

 

Conference USA

Houston has a very slim chance to get to a BCS Bowl, if the Cougars go 13-0 in the regular season.  They need Boise State to lose a game so they can be the highest-rated non automatic qualifying champion in the BCS Rankings.  They need Tulsa to be 8-3 and Southern Miss to be 11-1 when they face and beat them to end the regular season and win the conference championship game.  Then, they will still need for a couple top 10 teams to drop into the second 10.  It’s possible, but not probable, because it is going to be hard for anybody to knock off Boise State.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Houston, Southern Mississippi, Tulsa, and SMU

 

Bowl Probable (1)

Marshall

 

There are four teams with four wins, needing two more to become bowl eligible. However, with their schedules, we only believe one will get to six victories.

 

UTEP closes with East Carolina, Tulsa, and Central Florida.  The Miners’ easiest game prior to last week was against Rice, and the lost to the Owls.

 

Central Florida closes with Southern Miss, East Carolina, and UTEP.  Only the UTEP game is at home, and we cannot see UCF winning either road game.

 

East Carolina has a decent chance with games against UTEP, UCF, and Marshall, but only the UCF game is in Greenville.

 

Marshall should lose at Tulsa this weekend, but the Thundering Herd benefits from playing Memphis the following week before hosting East Carolina the week after.  They have the best chance at emerging with six wins.

 

Independents

We have already included Notre Dame in the Big East list because the Irish do not appear to be headed to a BCS Bowl.  They would have to win at Stanford and still need a lot of help.

 

Bowl Eligible (1)

Brigham Young

 

Bowl Probable (0)

This will open the door for two at-large bowl berths. Neither Army nor Navy appear to be headed to bowl eligibility.  Both are 3-6, so one is guaranteed to lose a seventh game when they face off on December 10.

 

Navy has tough games at SMU and San Jose State before taking on Army.  The Midshipmen have beaten Army 11 straight times, and it could be Army’s year to end that streak.

 

Army closes with Rutgers and Temple before taking on Navy.

 

Mid-American

Here is another muddled conference where 10 different teams have a chance to make it to the championship game.

 

In the East, Miami of Ohio has won three games in a row after a 1-5 start to move into a tie for first with Ohio.  Temple is a half game back, while Bowling Green and Kent State are one game back.

 

In the West, Northern Illinois and Toledo are tied at 4-1 in league play, but the Huskies own the tiebreak over the Rockets after winning their epic match 63-60.  Ball State, Western Michigan, and even Eastern Michigan are still mathematically alive.

 

Bowl Eligible (3)

Ohio, Northern Illinois, and Ball State

 

Bowl Probable (5)

Toledo, Temple, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Bowling Green

 

As many as three of these probable teams could be 6-6 and would serve as the last line of teams available for at-large bids.

 

Mountain West

Boise State is number five in the BCS rankings, and the Broncos will need help from several other teams to make it to the National Championship Game.  Oklahoma State and Stanford must lose, and Alabama may have to lose again or LSU may have to lose.

 

The funny thing about the Broncos this year is that we feel this is their weakest team in the last four years!  Their run defense is not as forceful as it has been the last five years, and Boise will have a tough time winning out with TCU, San Diego State, and Wyoming still to play.

 

Bowl Eligible (2)

Boise State and TCU

 

Bowl Probable (3)

San Diego State, Wyoming, and Air Force

 

All three teams need just one more win for bowl eligibility, and all three have two patsies on their schedules.  So, all three should have at least seven wins, and one team should get to eight.

 

However, with Boise State likely headed to a BCS Bowl (not the National Championship Game), the MWC will need six bowl eligible teams and will come up one short.

 

Pac-12

Stanford still has national title aspirations, and they will need to beat Oregon handily this week and then close with convincing wins over Cal and Notre Dame.  If the Cardinal can beat the Ducks by two touchdowns, it will at least establish a comparison with LSU.  LSU beat Oregon by 13 in the season opener.  Remember, Stanford has been hit hard by injuries to their receiving corps, while Oregon is coming into their Saturday game near full strength.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona State

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Utah, UCLA, and California

 

These three teams each need one more win to get to six and all three have really good shots at doing so.

 

Utah’s schedule gives them a chance to win out.  The Utes host UCLA, then go to fast-falling Washington State, before closing at home against Colorado.

 

UCLA has a home game with Colorado, and that alone will get them to six victories.  Road games at Utah and USC do not look promising, but if they win both, they will play in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

California should become bowl eligible this weekend when they host Oregon State.

 

Southeastern

11 of the 12 teams are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, and at least nine teams will get there.  The big news is that Alabama stayed in second place in the BCS rankings.  If they win out, they will be in the National Championship Game.

 

LSU has a tough home game with Arkansas, but the Tigers should run the table and meet Alabama in New Orleans for the National Championship.

 

Bowl Eligible (6)

LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, and South Carolina

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Florida, Mississippi State, and Tennessee

 

Florida needs one more win and has a game with Furman, so the Gators are in.

 

Mississippi State needs one more win and should get it in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss.

 

Tennessee, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are 4-5 and need two more wins.  All three must play the other two and all three will probably lose their other game, which in all three cases come on the road against teams with winning records.  Because Tennessee has a long history of beating the other two, we will go with the Volunteers to beat Vanderbilt and Kentucky and become the ninth bowl eligible SEC team.

 

If both LSU and Alabama advance to the title game, the SEC will need 11 bowl eligible teams, so there could be two and even three at-large spots available for other teams.  If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, then the Tide and Tigers could play again.

 

Sunbelt

No SBC team has won 10 regular season games, but it could happen this year.  If Arkansas State defeats Louisiana (UL-Lafayette for those that do not realize the Ragin’ Cajuns call themselves “the University of Louisiana” these days), the Red Wolves will win out and go 10-2.

 

This league has benefitted from the at-large bowl bid in recent years, and it should be another season of getting at least one extra team in a bowl.

 

Bowl Eligible (2)

Arkansas State and U. of Louisiana

 

Bowl Probable (2)

Florida International and Western Kentucky

 

After starting 0-4, Western Kentucky has reeled off five straight wins, but that streak will come to a crashing halt this week.  The Hilltoppers play at LSU.

 

WAC

Two thirds through the season, no WAC team has become bowl eligible as of yet.  This league has four bowl allotments, and only three teams have five wins (no other team has even four yet).  To make matters worse, some teams will need seven wins to become eligible, because they play 13 regular season games.

 

Bowl Eligible (0)

 

Bowl Probable (4)

Nevada, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, and Utah State

 

Nevada and Louisiana Tech face off in Reno on November 19, and the winner of that game will be the conference champion, while the loser will still become bowl eligible.

 

Hawaii has home games with an subpar Fresno State team and an inept Tulane team, so the Warriors will get their needed seven wins.

 

Utah State is a stretch, but we believe the Aggies have what it takes to win out including pulling off an upset over Nevada in Logan a week after the Wolf Pack beats Louisiana Tech.

 

Total Bowl Eligible as of November 7, 2011—44

 

Total Bowl Probable as of November 7, 2011—30

 

As of today, we see about 74 bowl eligible teams fighting for 70 bowl spots.  See our bowl possibilities at the end of this post.

 

Here is this week’s list of teams ranked from 1 to 120.

 

#	Team	PiRate
1	L S U	137.3
2	Alabama	136.9
3	Stanford	133.7
4	Oklahoma	131.5
5	Oregon	128.7
6	Oklahoma St.	127.4
7	Wisconsin	124.6
8	Florida St.	124.0
9	Boise St.	123.8
10	Southern Cal	122.2
11	TexasA&M	121.3
12	Notre Dame	119.4
13	Arkansas	118.1
14	Texas	117.1
15	Arizona St.	116.8
16	Missouri	115.8
17	Clemson	115.7
18	Georgia	115.2
19	Nebraska	115.0
20	S. Carolina	114.6
21	Michigan	114.5
22	Michigan St.	114.1
23	Florida	112.6
24	Washington	112.5
25	Houston	112.4
26	T C U	111.9
27	Utah	111.7
28	Virginia Tech	111.6
29	Miami(FL)	111.1
30	Kansas St.	110.3
31	Mississippi St.	110.0
32	Cincinnati	109.7
33	Ohio St.	109.6
34	Baylor	108.3
35	California	108.2
36	Southern Miss.	107.8
37	Georgia Tech	107.4
38	Auburn	107.4
39	Penn St.	107.0
40	U C L A	106.8
41	Vanderbilt	106.5
42	Iowa	106.0
43	W. Virginia	106.0
44	Arizona	106.0
45	Nevada	105.9
46	Tulsa	105.8
47	B Y U	105.5
48	Tennessee	104.4
49	Pittsburgh	103.8
50	Oregon St.	103.4
51	TexasTech	103.2
52	Northwestern	103.2
53	N. Carolina	103.2
54	Virginia	103.0
55	N. Carolina St.	102.5
56	Illinois	102.4
57	WakeForest	101.8
58	S. Florida	101.2
59	Air Force	100.8
60	Louisville	100.7
61	Utah St.	99.9
62	Washington St.	99.8
63	LouisianaTech	99.6
64	Toledo	99.0
65	Rutgers	98.9
66	San Diego St.	98.7
67	Iowa St.	98.2
68	BostonColl.	98.1
69	Temple	98.0
70	Purdue	97.5
71	Hawaii	96.9
72	S M U	96.5
73	Duke	96.3
74	Central Florida	96.1
75	Connecticut	95.3
76	Northern Illinois	95.0
77	Navy	94.4
78	Ole Miss	93.9
79	Minnesota	93.8
80	Maryland	93.6
81	Arkansas St.	93.0
82	Syracuse	93.0
83	Kentucky	92.8
84	Western Michigan	92.3
85	Wyoming	92.2
86	Colorado	92.0
87	East Carolina	91.7
88	Fresno St.	91.0
89	San Jose St.	90.9
90	Miami(O)	90.4
91	Marshall	88.3
92	OhioU	88.2
93	Kansas	88.0
94	U T E P	86.7
95	Idaho	86.7
96	Army	85.9
97	FloridaInt’l	85.8
98	UL-Lafayette	84.9
99	Bowling Green	84.7
100	WesternKy.	84.5
101	New Mexico St.	84.2
102	Rice	84.2
103	UL-Monroe	83.6
104	Indiana	83.2
105	Colorado St.	82.9
106	Ball St.	82.2
107	U N L V	82.2
108	Eastern Michigan	80.2
109	North Texas	79.6
110	Central Michigan	78.4
111	U A B	78.4
112	Kent St.	78.3
113	Troy	76.3
114	MiddleTennessee	76.2
115	Buffalo	73.5
116	Tulane	69.7
117	Akron	67.7
118	New Mexico	67.4
119	Memphis	66.9
120	FloridaAtlantic	65.6

 

The PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
FloridaState	4-2	6-3	124.0
Clemson	5-1	8-1	115.7
North CarolinaState	2-3	5-4	102.5
WakeForest	4-2	5-4	101.8
BostonCollege	1-5	2-7	98.1
Maryland	1-5	2-7	93.6
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	4-1	8-1	111.6
Miami-FL	3-3	5-4	111.1
Georgia Tech	4-2	7-2	107.4
North Carolina	2-4	6-4	103.2
Virginia	3-2	6-3	103.0
Duke	1-4	3-6	96.3

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	3-0	7-1	109.7
West Virginia	2-2	6-3	106.0
Pittsburgh	2-2	4-5	103.8
South Florida	0-4	4-4	101.2
Louisville	3-1	5-4	100.7
Rutgers	3-2	6-3	98.9
Connecticut	2-2	4-5	95.3
Syracuse	1-3	5-4	93.0

 

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Wisconsin	3-2	7-2	124.6
OhioState	3-2	6-3	109.6
PennState	5-0	8-1	107.0
Illinois	2-3	6-3	102.4
Purdue	2-3	4-5	97.5
Indiana	0-6	1-9	83.2
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	3-2	7-2	115.0
Michigan	3-2	7-2	114.5
MichiganState	4-1	7-2	114.1
Iowa	3-2	6-3	106.0
Northwestern	2-4	4-5	103.2
Minnesota	1-4	2-7	93.8

 

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	5-1	8-1	131.5
OklahomaState	6-0	9-0	127.4
TexasA&M	3-3	5-4	121.3
Texas	3-2	6-2	117.1
Missouri	2-4	4-5	115.8
KansasState	4-2	7-2	110.3
Baylor	2-3	5-3	108.3
TexasTech	2-4	5-4	103.2
IowaState	2-4	5-4	98.2
Kansas	0-6	2-7	88.0

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	4-1	8-1	107.8
Central Florida	2-3	4-5	96.1
East Carolina	3-2	4-5	91.7
Marshall	3-2	4-5	88.3
U A B	1-5	1-8	78.4
Memphis	1-3	2-7	66.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	5-0	9-0	112.4
Tulsa	5-0	6-3	105.8
S M U	4-2	6-3	96.5
U T E P	1-4	4-5	86.7
Rice	2-4	3-6	84.2
Tulane	1-5	2-8	69.7

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-3	119.4
B Y U		6-3	105.5
Navy		3-6	94.4
Army		3-6	85.9

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-3	5-4	98.0
Miami(O)	3-2	4-5	90.4
OhioU	3-2	6-3	88.2
Bowling Green	2-3	4-5	84.7
Kent St.	2-3	3-6	78.3
Buffalo	1-4	2-7	73.5
Akron	0-5	1-8	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Toledo	4-1	5-4	99.0
Northern Illinois	4-1	6-3	95.0
Western Michigan	3-2	5-4	92.3
BallState	4-2	6-4	82.2
Eastern Michigan	3-2	5-4	80.2
Central Michigan	2-4	3-7	78.4

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
BoiseState	3-0	8-0	123.8
T C U	4-0	7-2	111.9
Air Force	1-3	5-4	100.8
San DiegoState	2-2	5-3	98.7
Wyoming	2-1	5-3	92.2
ColoradoState	1-2	3-5	82.9
UNLV	1-2	2-6	82.2
New Mexico	0-4	0-9	67.4

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Stanford	7-0	9-0	133.7
Oregon	6-0	8-1	128.7
Washington	4-2	6-3	112.5
California	2-4	5-4	108.2
OregonState	2-4	2-7	103.4
WashingtonState	1-5	3-6	99.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
U S C	4-2	7-2	122.2
ArizonaState	4-2	6-3	116.8
Utah	2-4	5-4	111.7
U C L A	4-2	5-4	106.8
Arizona	1-5	2-7	106.0
Colorado	0-6	1-9	92.0

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Georgia	5-1	7-2	115.2
South Carolina	5-2	7-2	114.6
Florida	3-4	5-4	112.6
Vanderbilt	1-5	4-5	106.5
Tennessee	0-5	4-5	104.4
Kentucky	1-4	4-5	92.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
L S U	6-0	9-0	137.3
Alabama	5-1	8-1	136.9
Arkansas	4-1	8-1	118.1
MississippiState	1-4	5-4	110.0
Auburn	4-2	6-3	107.4
Ole Miss	0-6	2-7	93.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
ArkansasState	5-0	7-2	93.0
FloridaInternational	2-3	5-4	85.8
U.ofLouisiana	6-1	8-2	84.9
Western Kentucky	5-1	5-4	84.5
Louisiana-Monroe	1-4	2-7	83.6
North Texas	2-3	3-6	79.6
Troy	1-3	2-6	76.3
MiddleTennessee	1-3	2-6	76.2
FloridaAtlantic	0-5	0-8	65.6

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nevada	3-0	5-3	105.9
UtahState	1-2	3-5	99.9
LouisianaTech	4-1	5-4	99.6
Hawaii	3-2	5-4	96.9
FresnoState	2-2	3-6	91.0
San JoseState	2-3	3-6	90.9
New MexicoState	1-3	3-6	84.2
Idaho	1-4	2-7	86.7

 

 

Here are the PiRate spreads for this week’s games.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Tuesday, November 1		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
TOLEDO	Western Michigan	9.7	38-28	10
Northern Illinois	BOWLING GREEN	7.3	35-28	7
Wednesday, November 2		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
TEMPLE	Miami (O)	10.1	27-17	13
Thursday, November 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
Ohio U	CENTRAL MICHIGAN	7.3	27-20	5
Houston	TULANE	40.2	50-10	33
Virginia Tech	GEORGIA TECH	1.2	26-25	-1
Friday, November 4		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
South Florida	SYRACUSE	4.7	28-23	4
Saturday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
Pittsburgh	LOUISVILLE	0.1	27-27 to ot	-3
Ohio St.	PURDUE	9.1	35-26	8
Michigan	ILLINOIS	9.1	30-21	3
NORTHWESTERN	Rice	22.0	45-23	15 1/2
VANDERBILT	Kentucky	16.2	35-19	13
CLEMSON	Wake Forest	16.9	34-17	19 1/2
VIRGINIA	Duke	9.7	34-24	8 1/2
North Carolina St.	BOSTON COLLEGE	1.4	17-16	2
EASTERN MICHIGAN	Buffalo	9.2	33-24	2 1/2
Texas A&M	KANSAS ST.	8.0	42-34	3
Kent St.	AKRON	8.1	28-20	6 1/2
Baylor	KANSAS	17.3	38-21	17 1/2
AIR FORCE	Wyoming	11.6	33-21	14
B Y U	Idaho	22.3	38-16	19 1/2
S M U	Navy	5.1	35-30	6 1/2
UTAH ST.	San Jose St.	12.0	38-26	11
TULSA	Marshall	20.5	38-17	16
BOISE ST.	T c u	14.9	38-23	15 1/2
FLORIDA ST.	Miami (Fla)	15.4	31-16	10
CINCINNATI	West Virginia	6.7	31-24	3 1/2
Rutgers  (n)	Army	13.0	27-12	8 1/2
MISSOURI	Texas	1.7	38-36	-1 1/2
Nebraska	PENN ST.	4.5	26-21	3
Oklahoma St.	TEXAS TECH	21.2	49-28	18
Michigan St.	IOWA	5.1	21-16	3
ARKANSAS	Tennessee	16.7	27-10	NL
SOUTH CAROLINA	Florida	5.0	24-19	NL
SOUTHERN CAL	Washington	13.2	34-21	13 1/2
GEORGIA	Auburn	10.3	31-21	12 1/2
CALIFORNIA	Oregon St.	7.8	28-20	9 1/2
STANFORD	Oregon	8.0	38-30	3
NEVADA	Hawaii	12.5	34-21	10
U a b	MEMPHIS	9.0	23-14	7 1/2
San Diego St.	COLORADO ST.	13.3	30-17	14 1/2
Alabama	MISSISSIPPI ST.	23.9	34-10	18 1/2
Arizona St.	WASHINGTON ST.	14.0	35-21	12 1/2
Louisiana Tech	OLE MISS	2.7	27-24	-1
Wisconsin	MINNESOTA	27.8	49-21	28 1/2
Notre Dame  (n)	Maryland	24.8	38-13	19
Fresno St.	NEW MEXICO ST.	4.3	31-27	NL
UTAH	U c l a	7.9	27-19	7 1/2
SOUTHERN MISS.	Central Florida	14.7	35-20	10
East Carolina	U T E P	2.5	31-28	-3 1/2
Arizona	COLORADO	11.0	28-17	13 1/2
U n l v	NEW MEXICO	12.3	28-16	8 1/2
ARKANSAS ST.	Louisiana-Lafayette	11.1	38-27	9 1/2
North Texas	TROY	0.8	27-26	NL
LOUISIANA-MONROE	Middle Tennessee	11.2	28-17	5 1/2
FLORIDA INT’L	Florida Atlantic	22.7	33-10	18 1/2
L S U	Western Kentucky	56.3	56-0	41

 

 

Bowl Speculation

(Team) means at-large selection.  The MAC and Sunbelt Get Them All!

 

Bowl	Conference	Conference	Team	Team
New Mexico	MWC # 5	Pac12 #7 / WAC	(Toledo)	Louisiana Tech
Famous Idaho Potato	MWC #2 or 4	WAC	Wyoming	Nevada
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	C-USA	Arkansas St.	(Ball St.)
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	C-USA	Syracuse	Marshall
Poinsettia	MWC #2 or 4	WAC	San Diego St.	Utah St.
MAACO	MWC #1	Pac 12 #5	T C U	U C L A
Hawaii	WAC	C-USA	Hawaii	Southern Miss.
Independence	ACC #7	MWC #3	Miami (Fl)	Air Force
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	MAC #2	Illinois	Ohio U
Belk	ACC #5	Big East #3	North Carolina	West Virginia
Military	ACC #8	Navy	Virginia	(Temple)
Holiday	Pac 12 #3	Big 12 #5	Utah	Missouri
Champs Sports	Big East #2	ACC #3	Notre Dame	Clemson
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Pac 10 #2	Kansas St.	Arizona St.
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	B Y U	Tulsa	B Y U
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Big 12 #7	Rutgers	(Florida Int’l)
Music City	SEC # 7	ACC #6	Tennessee	North Carolina St.
Insight	Big 12 #4	Big 10 #4 or 5	Texas A&M	Ohio St.
Meineke Car Care of Texas	Big 12 #6	Big 10 #6	Baylor	Michigan
Sun	ACC #4	Pac 12 #4	Virginia Tech	Washington
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	Army/ACC	California	Wake Forest
Liberty	SEC#8-9/BigEast	C-USA #1	Mississippi St.	Houston
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	ACC #2	Auburn	Florida State
TicketCity	Big 10 #7	C-USA	Iowa	S M U
Capital One	Big 10 #2	SEC #2	Wisconsin	Georgia
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	SEC #6	Nebraska	Florida
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Big 10 #3	South Carolina	Michigan St.
Rose	BCS Pac12	BCS Big 10	Stanford	Penn St.
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	BCS At-Large	Oklahoma	Oregon
Sugar	BCS SEC	BCS At-Large	Alabama	Boise St.
Orange	BCS ACC	BCS At-Large	Georgia Tech	Cincinnati
Cotton	Big 12 #2	SEC #3 or 4	Texas	Arkansas
BBVA Compass	Big East#5/CUSA	SEC #8 or 9	Louisville	(Western Ky.)
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	MAC #1	Louisiana-Laf.	Northern Illinois
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	*** BCS #2 ***	L S U	Oklahoma St.

 

 

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 1-5, 2011

1 vs. 2

Are you ready for the newest Game of the Century?  Here is a breakdown of this special game.

 

L S U (5-0 SEC  8-0 Overall #1 in nation) vs. Alabama (5-0 SEC  8-0 Overall #2 in Nation)

 

Site: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL  Capacity: 101,820

 

Television: Saturday, November 5, 2011 CBS 8:00 PM EDT

 

L S U

Oregon (N)                 40-27

Northwestern St.       49-  3

@ Mississippi St.        19-  6

@ West Virginia        47-21

Kentucky                    35-  7

Florida                        41-11

@ Tennessee              38-  7

Auburn                      45-10

 

Stat Box

Stat                             LSU                Opp

Pts                               39.3                 11.5

FD                               20.8                 14.5

Rushing                      189.0               76.6

Rush Avg.                  4.3                   2.5

Real Rush *               194.1               92.3

Real Rush Avg. *      4.5                   3.3

Passing Yds.               183.1               174.8

Pass Yds/Att.             8.3                   5.4

Real Passing Yds. *   178.0               159.1

QB Sacks Allowed     7-41                 19-125

Interception %          0.6                   4.3

Total Offense             372.1               251.4

Punts                          43.9/Net 41.1 

PAT                            38-40

FG                               10-12 (44 LG)

Kick Return               23.8                 19.8

Punt Return               8.0                   0.6

TO Margin                 +15

Red Zone total           39                    16

RZ TD                        31                      9

RZ FG                          7                      6

 

* Using NFL rules where sacks count against passing yardage

Alabama

Kent St.                      48-  7

@ Penn St.                 27-11

North Texas               41-  0

Arkansas                    38-14

@ Florida                   38-10

Vanderbilt                  34-  0

@ Ole Miss                 52-  7

Tennessee                   37-  6

 

Stat Box

Stat                             Ala                  Opp

Pts                               39.4                   6.9

FD                               21.9                   9.9

Rushing                      229.3               44.9

Rush Avg.                  5.8                   1.7

Real Rush *               238.3               59.8

Real Rush Avg. *      6.3                   2.4

Passing Yds.               228.4               135.6

Pass Yds/Att.             8.0                   4.5

Real Passing Yds. *   219.4               120.8

QB Sacks Allowed     12-72               17-119

Interception %          2.2                   3.7

Total Offense             457.6               180.5

Punts                          39.0/36.4 Net 

PAT                            39-40

FG                               12-16 (45 LG)

Kick Return               23.5

Punt Return               12.7

TO Margin                 +6

Red Zone total           41                    9

RZ TD                        24                    5

RZ FG                        11                    1

 

* Using NFL rules where sacks count against passing yardage

 

 

PiRate Ratings

Alabama                     138.1  #1

L S U                          136.1  #2

 

Alabama Home-field Advantage for this game: 3 pts

 

PiRate Spread           Alabama 5.0

PiRate Score              Alabama 21  L S U 16

 

100 Computer Simulations

Wins: Alabama 54  L S U 46

Avg. Score: Alabama 18.76  L S U 16.36

Outlier A: Alabama 31  L S U 10

Outlier B: L S U 24  Alabama 10

Average Spread: 7.48 points

Spread Deviation: 4.64

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate
1	Alabama	138.1
2	L S U	136.1
3	Stanford	134.0
4	Oklahoma	132.0
5	Oklahoma St.	130.6
6	Oregon	128.1
7	Boise St.	126.9
8	Southern Cal	122.4
9	Florida St.	122.4
10	Notre Dame	122.1
11	Wisconsin	121.8
12	TexasA&M	120.8
13	Arizona St.	119.1
14	Missouri	118.6
15	Nebraska	118.5
16	Michigan	117.1
17	S. Carolina	116.9
18	Arkansas	116.5
19	Michigan St.	116.3
20	Clemson	115.7
21	Texas	114.3
22	Georgia	113.9
23	Ohio St.	113.4
24	Washington	113.1
25	Florida	112.9
26	T C U	112.1
27	Virginia Tech	111.6
28	Houston	109.6
29	Cincinnati	109.5
30	Mississippi St.	109.5
31	W. Virginia	109.3
32	Utah	109.2
33	Miami(FL)	108.9
34	Arizona	108.3
35	Southern Miss.	107.5
36	Auburn	107.4
37	Georgia Tech	107.4
38	Penn St.	107.0
39	Kansas St.	106.8
40	TexasTech	106.3
41	Nevada	105.9
42	Vanderbilt	105.9
43	N. Carolina	105.8
44	Tulsa	105.7
45	Baylor	105.5
46	B Y U	105.5
47	California	105.4
48	Tennessee	105.1
49	U C L A	104.2
50	Pittsburgh	104.0
51	Iowa	103.7
52	Oregon St.	103.1
53	Air Force	102.6
54	Illinois	102.4
55	Washington St.	102.3
56	S. Florida	101.3
57	Iowa St.	101.0
58	Purdue	100.6
59	Toledo	100.6
60	Temple	100.3
61	Northwestern	100.0
62	BostonColl.	99.7
63	Virginia	99.5
64	WakeForest	99.4
65	N. Carolina St.	99.4
66	San Diego St.	99.3
67	Rutgers	98.8
68	Duke	98.7
69	Utah St.	98.7
70	Hawaii	98.4
71	Louisville	97.7
72	S M U	97.5
73	Ole Miss	97.0
74	Maryland	96.8
75	LouisianaTech	96.4
76	Central Florida	96.2
77	Syracuse	94.3
78	Connecticut	94.3
79	Arkansas St.	93.8
80	Fresno St.	93.7
81	Northern Illinois	93.4
82	San Jose St.	93.4
83	Western Michigan	92.3
84	Wyoming	92.0
85	East Carolina	92.0
86	Navy	91.8
87	Colorado	91.8
88	Minnesota	90.1
89	Kentucky	90.0
90	Miami(O)	89.3
91	Marshall	88.3
92	U T E P	87.5
93	FloridaInt’l	86.0
94	OhioU	85.9
95	New Mexico St.	85.5
96	UL-Lafayette	85.2
97	Kansas	85.2
98	Bowling Green	84.7
99	Army	84.6
100	WesternKy.	84.3
101	Idaho	84.2
102	Rice	83.4
103	UL-Monroe	83.3
104	Colorado St.	82.9
105	Ball St.	81.5
106	U A B	81.2
107	Eastern Michigan	80.9
108	Indiana	80.4
109	North Texas	79.6
110	U N L V	79.4
111	Troy	78.9
112	Central Michigan	78.7
113	Kent St.	78.0
114	MiddleTennessee	75.5
115	Buffalo	73.5
116	Tulane	69.2
117	Akron	68.8
118	Memphis	66.9
119	New Mexico	66.8
120	FloridaAtlantic	64.8

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
FloridaState	3-2	5-3	122.4
Clemson	5-1	8-1	115.7
BostonCollege	1-4	2-6	99.7
WakeForest	4-2	5-3	99.4
North CarolinaState	1-3	4-4	99.4
Maryland	1-4	2-6	96.8
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	4-1	8-1	111.6
Miami-FL	2-3	4-4	108.9
Georgia Tech	4-2	7-2	107.4
North Carolina	2-3	6-3	105.8
Virginia	2-2	5-3	99.5
Duke	1-3	3-5	98.7

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	2-0	6-1	109.5
West Virginia	2-1	6-2	109.3
Pittsburgh	2-1	4-4	104.0
South Florida	0-3	4-3	101.3
Rutgers	2-2	5-3	98.8
Louisville	2-1	4-4	97.7
Syracuse	1-2	5-3	94.3
Connecticut	1-2	3-5	94.3

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Wisconsin	2-2	6-2	121.8
OhioState	2-2	5-3	113.4
PennState	5-0	8-1	107.0
Illinois	2-3	6-3	102.4
Purdue	2-2	4-4	100.6
Indiana	0-5	1-8	80.4
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	3-1	7-1	118.5
Michigan	3-1	7-1	117.1
MichiganState	3-1	6-2	116.3
Iowa	2-2	5-3	103.7
Northwestern	1-4	3-5	100.0
Minnesota	1-3	2-6	90.1

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	4-1	7-1	132.0
OklahomaState	5-0	8-0	130.6
TexasA&M	3-2	5-3	120.8
Missouri	2-3	4-4	118.6
Texas	2-2	5-2	114.3
KansasState	4-1	7-1	106.8
TexasTech	2-3	5-3	106.3
Baylor	1-3	4-3	105.5
IowaState	1-4	4-4	101.0
Kansas	0-5	2-6	85.2

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	3-1	7-1	107.5
Central Florida	2-2	4-4	96.2
East Carolina	3-1	4-4	92.0
Marshall	3-2	4-5	88.3
U A B	1-4	1-7	81.2
Memphis	1-3	2-7	66.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	4-0	8-0	109.6
Tulsa	4-0	5-3	105.7
S M U	3-2	5-3	97.5
U T E P	1-3	4-4	87.5
Rice	1-4	2-6	83.4
Tulane	1-4	2-7	69.2

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		5-3	122.1
B Y U		6-3	105.5
Navy		2-6	91.8
Army		3-5	84.6

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-2	5-3	100.3
Miami(O)	2-2	3-5	89.3
OhioU	2-2	5-3	85.9
Bowling Green	2-3	4-5	84.7
Kent St.	1-3	2-6	78.0
Buffalo	1-4	2-7	73.5
Akron	0-4	1-7	68.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Toledo	4-0	5-3	100.6
Northern Illinois	3-1	5-3	93.4
Western Michigan	3-2	5-4	92.3
BallState	3-2	5-4	81.5
Eastern Michigan	3-1	5-3	80.9
Central Michigan	2-3	3-6	78.7

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
BoiseState	2-0	7-0	126.9
T C U	3-0	6-2	112.1
Air Force	1-3	4-4	102.6
San DiegoState	1-2	4-3	99.3
Wyoming	2-0	5-2	92.0
ColoradoState	1-2	3-5	82.9
UNLV	1-1	2-5	79.4
New Mexico	0-3	0-8	66.8

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Stanford	6-0	8-0	134.0
Oregon	5-0	7-1	128.1
Washington	4-1	6-2	113.1
California	1-4	4-4	105.4
OregonState	2-3	2-6	103.1
WashingtonState	1-4	3-5	102.3
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
U S C	3-2	6-2	122.4
ArizonaState	4-1	6-2	119.1
Utah	1-4	4-4	109.2
Arizona	1-4	2-6	108.3
U C L A	3-2	4-4	104.2
Colorado	0-5	1-8	91.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-1	7-1	116.9
Georgia	5-1	6-2	113.9
Florida	2-4	4-4	112.9
Vanderbilt	1-4	4-4	105.9
Tennessee	0-5	3-5	105.1
Kentucky	0-4	3-5	90.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	138.1
L S U	5-0	8-0	136.1
Arkansas	3-1	7-1	116.5
MississippiState	1-4	4-4	109.5
Auburn	4-2	6-3	107.4
Ole Miss	0-5	2-6	97.0

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
ArkansasState	4-0	6-2	93.8
FloridaInternational	2-2	5-3	86.0
U.ofLouisiana	5-1	7-2	85.2
Western Kentucky	4-1	4-4	84.3
Louisiana-Monroe	1-3	2-6	83.3
North Texas	2-3	3-6	79.6
Troy	1-3	2-5	78.9
MiddleTennessee	1-3	2-5	75.5
FloridaAtlantic	0-4	0-7	64.8

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nevada	3-0	5-3	105.9
UtahState	0-2	2-5	98.7
Hawaii	3-1	5-3	98.4
LouisianaTech	3-1	4-4	96.4
FresnoState	2-1	3-5	93.7
San JoseState	2-2	3-5	93.4
New MexicoState	1-3	3-5	85.5
Idaho	0-4	1-7	84.2

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Tuesday, November 1		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
TOLEDO	Northern Illinois	10.2	38-28	7
Wednesday, November 2		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
Temple	OHIOU	11.4	28-17	5
Thursday, November 3		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
MIAMI(O)	Akron	23.0	35-12	16 1/2
Florida St.	BOSTONCOLLEGE	19.7	34-14	14 1/2
Tulsa	CENTRAL FLORIDA	6.5	34-27	-3
Friday, November 4		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
KENT ST.	Central Michigan	1.8	23-21	-1
Southern Cal	COLORADO	27.6	41-13	22
Saturday, November 5		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
WEST VIRGINIA	Louisville	14.6	35-20	14
EASTERN MICHIGAN	Ball St.	1.9	26-24	-3 1/2
Ole Miss	KENTUCKY	4.0	24-20	2 1/2
GEORGIA	New Mexico St.	32.9	47-14	37
RUTGERS	South Florida	0.5	28-27	-1
Virginia	MARYLAND	0.2	26-26 to ot	-2 1/2
CONNECTICUT	Syracuse	2.5	24-21	3 1/2
MIAMI(FL)	Duke	13.2	30-17	16 1/2
MICHIGAN ST.	Minnesota	29.2	42-13	28
WISCONSIN	Purdue	24.2	41-17	26 1/2
OHIO ST.	Indiana	36.0	42-6	29
FLORIDA	Vanderbilt	10.5	27-16	11
IOWA ST.	Kansas	18.8	35-16	13 1/2
NEBRASKA	Northwestern	22.5	44-21	19
T c u	WYOMING	17.1	38-21	20
S M U	Tulane	31.3	41-10	25
AIR FORCE	Army	21.0	42-21	14 1/2
Michigan	IOWA	9.9	31-21	3 1/2
TEXAS	TexasTech	11.0	31-20	10
OKLAHOMA	TexasA&M	14.7	41-26	16 1/2
ARKANSAS	South Carolina	2.6	27-24	4 1/2
North Carolina	NORTH CAROLINA ST.	3.9	27-23	3 1/2
ALABAMA	L s u	5.0	21-16	4 1/2
Oregon	WASHINGTON	12.0	40-28	16 1/2
Arizona St.	U C L A	11.9	35-23	13 1/2
CALIFORNIA	Washington St.	6.1	34-28	9 1/2
Notre Dame	WAKEFOREST	20.2	37-17	14
Southern Miss.	EAST CAROLINA	12.5	41-28	9 1/2
SAN JOSE ST.	Idaho	12.2	35-23	6
ARIZONA	Utah	2.1	24-22	1 1/2
Stanford	OREGON ST.	27.9	49-21	21
OKLAHOMA ST.	Kansas St.	27.3	44-17	21 1/2
Missouri	BAYLOR	10.1	38-28	1
Houston	U A B	25.9	50-24	24
Cincinnati	PITTSBURGH	2.5	24-21	3
SAN DIEGO ST.	New Mexico	35.5	49-13	37
U t e p	RICE	1.6	28-26	1 1/2
FRESNO ST.	LouisianaTech	1.3	28-27	4
Boise St.	U N L V	44.5	59-14	41
HAWAII	Utah St.	3.7	31-27	9
NAVY	Troy	15.9	42-26	5
UL-LAFAYETTE	UL-Monroe	4.4	28-24	3 1/2
WESTERN KENTUCKY	FloridaInternational	0.8	28-27	-3
TENNESSEE	MiddleTennessee	32.6	42-9	18
Arkansas St.	FLORIDAATLANTIC	26.5	37-10	16

 

Note: If you like Halloween stories, check out the true story that happened to our founder 41 years ago tonight at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/a-true-halloween-story/

 

PiRate Ratings: College Football for October 25-29, 2011

A Different Look At The Bowls

You can go to a couple dozen sites to get bowl projections, but those are simply opinionated predictions.  At the PiRate Ratings, we like to look at the bowls in the same way the bowls themselves look at the teams.  We go conference-by-conference and try to act as if we were representatives of the bowls.

 

Before going further, let us not forget that we issued a challenge at the first of this year to boycott the sponsors of the bowls and to notify the sponsors of your choice that you are boycotting their products for that purpose.  This was done as a ploy to take away the only reason there is not an NCAA Playoff in FBS Football.  If corporations were to become afraid to sponsor a bowl, then the bowl cannot make money.  If there was an “Occupy the Bowls” movement, the corporate big-wigs just might decide to sponsor playoffs and not bowl games.  When that happens, there will be playoffs.

 

Okay, that said, let us look at each conference and give you their bowl tie-ins and show you which teams are on the radar screen for invitations.

 

A C C

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Orange Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Chick-fil-A

3. Champs Sports

4. Sun

5. Belk

6. Music City

7. Independence

8. Military

Note: The ACC is the first substitute if the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl cannot fill its Pac-12 spot or if Army is not bowl eligible

 

The ACC Championship Game winner will get an automatic BCS Bowl bid, and it will be the Orange Bowl unless the champion goes to the National Championship Game.  For the Tigers to get to the title game, at least four teams from among LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Stanford will have to lose while CU goes 13-0.  Clemson is not a sure thing to get that far.  Virginia Tech is capable of beating the Tigers in a rematch.

 

The loser of the ACC Championship Game should end up in Atlanta in the Chick-fil-A. 

 

The next tier of teams that should get the next bowl slots are Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest and North Carolina State will fill out the last two spots.  There is a good chance that Virginia will win six games, and they could push Wake Forest for the eighth bowl spot.  In that case a 7-5 Demon Deacon team could fill in as an at-large entry in another bowl, and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl will have an opening for an ACC team, since Army will not be bowl eligible.

 

Big East

1. BCS Automatic Bid (At-Large)

(Notre Dame is eligible for all spots below here)

2. Champs Sports

3. Belk

4. Pinstripe

5. Liberty or BVAA Compass *

6. Beef O’Brady’s

 

* The Liberty Bowl has the option of selecting a Big East team in lieu of a Conference USA team or in place of the SEC if there are not enough bowl eligible SEC teams.  See SEC for more details.

 

Cincinnati is currently on top of the Big East at 2-0, but the Bearcats still have road games with Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Syracuse and a game at Paul Brown Stadium off campus against West Virginia.  Cinti will be in a bowl, but we are not sure they are the true favorite to make it a BCS bowl.

 

With the exception of South Florida, any of the other seven teams could win the league title.  Syracuse sure looks like the team to beat as of this week.  The Orange have a key game at Louisville this weekend.

 

Notre Dame is not headed to a BCS bowl with three losses and a road game still to play against Stanford.  The Irish will grab one of the five non-BCS bowl bids.  Counting Cincinnati and Syracuse, there will need to be three more bowl-eligible teams to fill the required slots.  Rutgers and West Virginia are sure things.  Pittsburgh and Louisville might decide the last bowl-eligible team when they face off in November.  Connecticut and South Florida are least likely to win six games.

 

Big Ten

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Rose Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Capital One

3. Outback

4-5. Gator or

4-5. Insight

6. Meineke Car Care

7. Ticket City

8. Little Caesar’s

 

The Big Ten champion will be headed to Pasadena this year, as it is almost impossible for this league to finish in the top two of the BCS Standings.

 

Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, and Nebraska all have just one loss and are bowl eligible.  Illinois is bowl eligible as well.  Iowa should get there this weekend after playing Minnesota.  Purdue and Ohio State, both 4-3, face off in November, and the winner of that game will finish the season with six or more wins.  If the conference sends a second team to the BCS, the Little Caesar’s Bowl could be looking to the Sunbelt to fill the vacant slot.  We think the Big Ten will miss out on getting a second BCS spot.

 

Big 12

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Fiesta Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Cotton

3. Alamo

4. Insight

5. Holiday

6. Meineke Car Care

7. Pinstripe (Notre Dame is eligible for this if Big 12 cannot provide a team)

 

With Oklahoma losing to Texas Tech, it throws a monkey wrench into the Big 12’s “sure-thing” chance to produce two BCS Bowl teams.  Oklahoma State is the only National Championship Game possibility now, as it appears that Boise State will not fall enough in the computer rankings for a one-loss Big 12 team to pass them, especially if Georgia keeps winning in the SEC.

 

Kansas State is still undefeated, but the Wildcats have Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M in the next three weeks.  If they win all three, then they deserve to move into the top two, but there’s a greater chance of a satellite fragment crashing at the 50-yard line at Snyder Family Stadium than the Wildcats completing that sweep.

 

Oklahoma State needs to win out, and they will play the Alabama-LSU winner for the national championship (assuming LSU does not beat Alabama and then lose to Arkansas).

After the Sooners, Cowboys, and Wildcats, Texas A&M is the best of the rest.  The Aggies could easily be undefeated, but they blew double digit leads in back-to-back weeks against Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

 

Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas are sure to gain bowl eligibility, while Missouri has a good shot to get to 6-6.  If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State and finishes 10-2, we believe they will still have a chance to garner a BCS At-large spot.  If the Sooners beat OSU and both finish 11-1, then it will be an almost certainty that the league will send two teams.

 

Pac-12

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Rose Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Alamo

3. Holiday

4. Sun

5. MAACO

6. Kraft Fight Hunger

7. New Mexico

 

Stanford will deserve a spot in the National Championship Game if they go 13-0 with their schedule.  They face USC at the Coliseum this weekend, and must also defeat Oregon and Notre Dame in Palo Alto.  Then, they have to win the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, most likely against Arizona State.

 

Oregon is still a co-favorite to win the league title for the second consecutive year.  The Ducks lost to LSU to open the season, but they have gotten better and better each week.  Oregon has a tough three-game stretch at Washington, at Stanford, and versus USC.  If they win out and then take Arizona State in the conference title game, they might be the top one-loss team and the only one capable of leapfrogging over an undefeated Boise State team.

 

Since the Trojans are not eligible for bowl participation until next year, there is a very good possibility that this conference will not have seven bowl eligible teams this year.

 

Washington and Arizona State are the other sure things, while Cal will probably do it if they beat UCLA this week.  It is a high probability that no other team will win six games, so the Pac-12 will come up short by two teams, three if they send a second team to the BCS. 

 

S E C

1. BCS Automatic Bid (Sugar Bowl if not Championship Game)

2. Capital One

3-4-5. Outback or

3-4-5. Cotton or

3-4-5. Chick-fil-A

6. Gator

7. Music City

8-9. Liberty *

8-9 BVAA Compass *

 

* If the SEC cannot provide enough teams, the Liberty and Compass bowls alternate each year which bowl will find an at-large participant.  If the Liberty Bowl does not get an SEC team, they will take a Big East team that would have been the Compass Bowl’s selection.

 

It is very hard to believe the winner of the Alabama-LSU game would not be in the National Championship Game.  It isn’t impossible, but it’s hard to see any other SEC team beating the winner of this game.  It is also possible that if the winner of this epic matchup on November 5 wins by less than a field goal in one of those game for the ages, that the two teams could play again in New Orleans for all the marbles.

 

Arkansas is lurking in the bushes.  They have upset LSU before, including the Tigers’ national championship year of 2007.

 

Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina will be bowl eligible, and all of them could have eight wins on their resume.

 

Mississippi State is having an off-year after winning nine games in 2010, but the Bulldogs should get to 6-6 with Kentucky, UT-Martin, and Ole Miss still on the schedule.

 

Tennessee and Vanderbilt both have a chance to get to six wins, and it is likely that the winner of their November 19 game will be 6-6, while the loser finishes 5-7.  Kentucky and Ole Miss will not become bowl eligible this year.  So, it looks like nine bowl eligible teams for a probable 10 slots.

 

Best of the Rest

Mountain West

1. MAACO

2. Poinsettia

3. Independence

4. Famous Idaho Potato

5. New Mexico

 

Boise State has road victories over Georgia and Toledo, two teams that will be in bowls.  They have home victories over Tulsa, Nevada, and Air Force, who should all be in bowls.  The Broncos still have games with TCU and San Diego State, who should both be in bowls.  That adds to seven bowl teams on their schedule, and if they go 12-0, they will definitely be deserving of a BCS at-large Bowl Bid, but not the National Championship Game.  The Broncos will only get to New Orleans if every other team loses at least one game (Houston not included).  In our opinion, the Broncos deserve a BCS Bowl game over any Big East or ACC team.

 

TCU and San Diego State are sure things to become bowl eligible, while Air Force has concluded the difficult part of their schedule and could win out.

 

This is where things get murky.  If BSU earns a BCS bowl bid, this league will be liable for six bowl teams.  They may only have four.  Wyoming is 4-2, but the Cowboys will be hard pressed to come up with two more wins with a schedule that includes San Diego State, Air Force, and Boise State on the road and TCU at home.  A win over New Mexico is almost a guarantee, so the Cowboys would have to win against rival Colorado State in Ft. Collins on December 3.

 

The Rest

 

Conference USA

1. Liberty *

2. Hawaii

3. Ticket City

4. Armed Forces

5. Beef O’Brady’s

6. New Orleans

* BVAA Compass

 

* The Liberty Bowl can select a Big East team in place of the CUSA champion and send the league champion to Birmingham to the Compass Bowl.

 

Houston could go 13-0 and still be forced to play in the Liberty Bowl, although the Cougars could be shipped to a better bowl, such as the Alamo Bowl, in a “back room deal.”

 

Southern Mississippi and Tulsa are the two best teams after Houston, and both still have to play the Cougars (that is if USM wins the East Division and Houston wins the West).

 

SMU and UTEP should both be bowl eligible.  Of the remaining East Division teams, East Carolina has the best chance of sneaking in with six wins, while Central Florida and Marshall are long shots.  There is a chance that this league will come up one team short.

 

Independents

1. Notre Dame: Irish get a BCS bid if they finish in the top 8 in the final BCS standings.  They can also qualify for any Non-BCS bowl with ties to the Big East, and they can fill the Big 12’s Pinstripe Bowl slot if it is not filled by a Big 12 team).

 

2. B Y U: Cougars will earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl if they win seven games.

 

3. Navy: Midshipmen qualify for the Military Bowl if they are bowl eligible.

 

4. Army: The Black Knights qualify for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl if they are bowl eligible.  The ACC will replace a non-eligible Army team if they have a ninth bowl eligible team.

 

The only sure thing here is that BYU will earn their Armed Forces Bowl bid.  Notre Dame will go to one of the Big East bowls, while Army and Navy will be home for the holidays this year.

 

M A C

1. GoDaddy.com

2. Little Caesar’s

 

Toledo is the one sure thing this year.  The Rockets have been on a mission since the referees took away the Syracuse game from them with the blatantly terribly wrong PAT call.  They will earn one of the two guaranteed bowl bids.

 

Five teams will be competing for the other bowl spot.  In the East, where four teams have two conference losses, Temple, Ohio, and Bowling Green could all become bowl eligible.  In the West, besides Toledo, Northern Illinois can never be counted out of contention, as the Huskies have enough support to earn an at-large bid.  The two surprise teams here are Ball State and Eastern Michigan.  Both are 3-1/5-3, and both should win again to become bowl eligible.  While the Cardinals were in a bowl during Brady Hoke’s final season at BSU in 2008, it has been 24 years since EMU made its only bowl appearance.  The Eagles could win eight games, and Coach Ron English would have to merit some National Coach of the Year votes for taking a team that was #120 in the BCS two years ago.

 

Sunbelt

1. New Orleans

2. GoDaddy.com

* Beef O’Grady’s

* BVAA Compass

 

* The SBC is the principal backup choice of the Beef O’Grady’s Bowl if it cannot fill its spots with their regular tie-ins.  It is a secondary backup for the BVAA Compass Bowl.

 

Arkansas State is 3-0 in league play, while UL-Lafayette and Western Kentucky have one league loss apiece.  ASU beat WKU, and WKU beat ULL.  If ULL beats ASU, then the three could share the title, but we do not believe that will happen.  We’ll stick with ASU until somebody beats them in league play.

 

Florida International has a good chance of getting to seven wins and almost guaranteeing their receiving an at-large bowl bid.

 

The typical powers Troy and Middle Tennessee are out of the bowl picture for now.

 

W A C

Famous Idaho Potato

Poinsettia

Hawaii (Hawaii if they have seven or more wins)

New Mexico

 

Nevada will be the conference champion again, and Hawaii will win at least eight games.  After that, there is a question whether any other team will be bowl eligible.

 

San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State are 3-4, while Fresno State is 3-5.  FSU plays 13 games, and the Bulldogs are on pace to finish 6-7 and out of the bowl picture.

 

Of the 3-4 teams, Louisiana Tech still must face Fresno State, Ole Miss, and Nevada on the road, and that leads to seven losses.  New Mexico State still has games against Nevada, Georgia, and BYU, and that leads to at least seven losses.  San Jose State has the best chance to finish 3-2 and become bowl eligible.  The Spartans close with Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Navy, and Fresno State.  2^nd year coach Mike MacIntyre has done a great job in two years there, and with former Michigan starting quarterback Tate Forcier set to become eligible next year, the Spartans could be on the verge of returning to their former winning ways when they went to four bowls in a decade.

 

This Week’s Power Ratings 1-120

#	Team	PiRate
1	Alabama	138.1
2	Stanford	136.5
3	L S U	136.1
4	Oregon	131.6
5	Oklahoma St.	129.3
6	Oklahoma	129.3
7	Boise St.	126.9
8	Wisconsin	124.5
9	TexasA&M	123.3
10	Notre Dame	119.8
11	Florida St.	119.8
12	Clemson	119.5
13	Southern Cal	119.2
14	Arkansas	119.0
15	Michigan St.	118.8
16	Arizona St.	118.1
17	S. Carolina	116.7
18	Michigan	116.3
19	Missouri	115.6
20	Nebraska	114.9
21	Virginia Tech	114.3
22	Florida	113.5
23	Georgia	113.0
24	Miami(FL)	112.7
25	Washington	112.6
26	T C U	112.6
27	Kansas St.	112.3
28	Texas	111.3
29	TexasTech	111.1
30	Mississippi St.	111.0
31	Ohio St.	110.4
32	Cincinnati	109.5
33	W. Virginia	109.0
34	California	108.9
35	Arizona	108.5
36	Penn St.	107.7
37	Iowa	107.5
38	Southern Miss.	107.4
39	Tennessee	106.8
40	Utah	106.7
41	Auburn	106.7
42	Houston	106.6
43	Nevada	106.6
44	Baylor	106.5
45	Oregon St.	105.6
46	B Y U	105.0
47	Georgia Tech	104.1
48	Vanderbilt	103.9
49	WakeForest	103.0
50	San Diego St.	102.8
51	Pittsburgh	102.7
52	N. Carolina	102.4
53	Illinois	101.9
54	N. Carolina St.	101.7
55	Tulsa	101.4
56	S M U	101.3
57	S. Florida	101.3
58	Purdue	101.1
59	Toledo	100.6
60	U C L A	100.6
61	Maryland	100.4
62	Temple	100.3
63	Air Force	100.3
64	Washington St.	99.8
65	Hawaii	99.3
66	Northwestern	99.2
67	Rutgers	99.1
68	Utah St.	98.7
69	Ole Miss	97.7
70	Syracuse	97.1
71	Duke	96.7
72	BostonColl.	96.6
73	Iowa St.	95.9
74	Virginia	95.8
75	Connecticut	95.1
76	Navy	95.0
77	LouisianaTech	95.0
78	San Jose St.	94.8
79	Louisville	93.9
80	Central Florida	93.9
81	Fresno St.	93.7
82	Northern Illinois	93.4
83	Colorado	92.7
84	Western Michigan	92.6
85	East Carolina	92.5
86	Arkansas St.	91.9
87	Kentucky	89.1
88	Kansas	88.5
89	Wyoming	88.1
90	Bowling Green	87.7
91	U T E P	87.6
92	FloridaInt’l	87.1
93	Minnesota	86.8
94	Miami(O)	86.3
95	OhioU	85.9
96	U A B	85.8
97	Rice	85.5
98	Marshall	84.7
99	New Mexico St.	84.5
100	Colorado St.	84.5
101	Army	84.1
102	UL-Monroe	84.0
103	WesternKy.	83.1
104	Idaho	83.0
105	UL-Lafayette	82.1
106	Indiana	81.2
107	North Texas	81.0
108	Eastern Michigan	80.9
109	Ball St.	80.7
110	Central Michigan	80.0
111	MiddleTennessee	78.6
112	Buffalo	78.0
113	Troy	77.8
114	U N L V	77.8
115	Kent St.	74.5
116	New Mexico	70.1
117	Memphis	69.2
118	Tulane	68.7
119	Akron	67.5
120	FloridaAtlantic	64.8

 

By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
FloridaState	2-2	4-3	119.8
Clemson	5-0	8-0	119.5
WakeForest	4-1	5-2	103.0
North CarolinaState	1-2	4-3	101.7
Maryland	1-3	2-5	100.4
BostonCollege	0-4	1-6	96.6
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	3-1	7-1	114.3
Miami-FL	2-2	4-3	112.7
Georgia Tech	3-2	6-2	104.1
North Carolina	1-3	5-3	102.4
Duke	1-2	3-4	96.7
Virginia	1-2	4-3	95.8

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	2-0	6-1	109.5
West Virginia	1-1	5-2	109.0
Pittsburgh	1-1	3-4	102.7
South Florida	0-3	4-3	101.3
Rutgers	2-1	5-2	99.1
Syracuse	1-1	5-2	97.1
Connecticut	1-1	3-4	95.1
Louisville	1-1	3-4	93.9

 

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Wisconsin	2-1	6-1	124.5
OhioState	1-2	4-3	110.4
PennState	4-0	7-1	107.7
Illinois	2-2	6-2	101.9
Purdue	2-1	4-3	101.1
Indiana	0-4	1-7	81.2
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
MichiganState	3-0	6-1	118.8
Michigan	2-1	6-1	116.3
Nebraska	2-1	6-1	114.9
Iowa	2-1	5-2	107.5
Northwestern	0-4	2-5	99.2
Minnesota	0-3	1-6	86.8

 

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
OklahomaState	4-0	7-0	129.3
Oklahoma	3-1	6-1	127.5
TexasA&M	3-1	5-2	123.3
Missouri	1-3	3-4	115.6
KansasState	4-0	7-0	112.3
Texas	1-2	4-2	111.3
TexasTech	2-2	5-2	111.1
Baylor	1-2	4-2	106.5
IowaState	0-4	3-4	95.9
Kansas	0-4	2-5	88.5

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	2-1	6-1	107.4
Central Florida	1-2	3-4	93.9
East Carolina	2-1	3-4	92.5
U A B	1-3	1-6	85.8
Marshall	2-2	3-5	84.7
Memphis	1-2	2-6	69.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Houston	3-0	7-0	106.6
Tulsa	3-0	4-3	101.4
S M U	3-1	5-2	101.3
U T E P	1-2	4-3	87.6
Rice	1-3	2-5	85.5
Tulane	1-3	2-6	68.7

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		4-3	119.8
B Y U		6-2	105.0
Navy		2-5	95.0
Army		2-5	84.1

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	3-2	5-3	100.3
Bowling Green	2-2	4-4	87.7
Miami(O)	1-2	2-5	86.3
OhioU	2-2	5-3	85.9
Buffalo	1-3	2-6	78.0
Kent St.	0-3	1-6	74.5
Akron	0-3	1-6	67.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Toledo	4-0	5-3	100.6
Northern Illinois	3-1	5-3	93.4
Western Michigan	2-2	4-4	92.6
Eastern Michigan	3-1	5-3	80.9
BallState	3-1	5-3	80.7
Central Michigan	1-3	2-6	80.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
BoiseState	2-0	7-0	126.9
T C U	3-0	5-2	112.6
San DiegoState	1-1	4-2	102.8
Air Force	0-3	3-4	100.3
Wyoming	1-0	4-2	88.1
ColoradoState	1-1	3-4	84.5
UNLV	0-1	1-5	77.8
New Mexico	0-2	0-7	70.1

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Stanford	5-0	7-0	136.5
Oregon	4-0	6-1	131.6
Washington	3-1	5-2	112.6
California	1-3	4-3	108.9
OregonState	2-2	2-5	105.6
WashingtonState	1-3	3-4	99.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
U S C	3-1	6-1	119.2
ArizonaState	3-1	5-2	118.1
Arizona	1-3	2-5	108.5
Utah	0-4	3-4	106.7
U C L A	2-2	3-4	100.6
Colorado	0-4	1-7	92.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	4-1	6-1	116.7
Florida	2-3	4-3	113.5
Georgia	4-1	5-2	113.0
Tennessee	0-4	3-4	106.8
Vanderbilt	1-3	4-3	103.9
Kentucky	0-3	3-4	89.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-0	8-0	138.1
L S U	5-0	8-0	136.1
Arkansas	2-1	6-1	119.0
MississippiState	0-4	3-4	111.0
Auburn	3-2	5-3	106.7
Ole Miss	0-4	2-5	97.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
ArkansasState	3-0	5-2	91.9
FloridaInternational	1-2	4-3	87.1
Louisiana-Monroe	1-2	2-5	84.0
Western Kentucky	3-1	3-4	83.1
U.ofLouisiana	4-1	6-2	82.1
North Texas	2-2	3-5	81.0
MiddleTennessee	1-2	2-4	78.6
Troy	1-2	2-4	77.8
FloridaAtlantic	0-4	0-7	64.8

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nevada	2-0	4-3	106.6
Hawaii	2-1	4-3	99.3
UtahState	0-2	2-5	98.7
LouisianaTech	2-1	3-4	95.0
San JoseState	2-1	3-4	94.8
FresnoState	2-1	3-5	93.7
New MexicoState	1-2	3-4	84.5
Idaho	0-3	1-6	83.0

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Tuesday, October 25		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
FLORIDAINT’L	Troy	11.8	33-21	5
Wednesday, October 26		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
PITTSBURGH	Connecticut	10.6	28-17	10 1/2
Thursday, October 27		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
MIAMI(FL)	Virginia	19.9	34-14	14 1/2
HOUSTON	Rice	23.1	51-28	26 1/2
Friday, October 28		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
T C U	B y u	11.1	35-24	11 1/2
Saturday, October 29		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
Mississippi St.	KENTUCKY	18.9	31-12	10 1/2
MARSHALL	U a b	1.9	26-24	6
Central Mich.	AKRON	10.0	31-21	8 1/2
WESTERNMICH.	Ball St.	14.4	31-17	13 1/2
NORTH CAROLINA	WakeForest	2.4	28-26	7
FLORIDA ST.	North Carolina St.	21.6	38-16	19 1/2
Clemson	GEORGIATECH	12.4	42-30	NL
Iowa	MINNESOTA	17.7	28-10	17 1/2
Michigan St.	NEBRASKA	0.4	24-24 to ot	-5 1/2
Northwestern	INDIANA	15.5	37-21	9 1/2
MICHIGAN	Purdue	18.2	38-20	15
PENN ST.	Illinois	9.3	23-14	6
Virginia Tech	DUKE	15.1	27-12	14
West Virginia	RUTGERS	6.9	31-24	7
Syracuse	LOUISVILLE	0.2	26-26 to ot	-4
MARYLAND	BostonCollege	6.8	27-20	7 1/2
AUBURN	Ole Miss	12.0	35-23	10 1/2
Arkansas	VANDERBILT	12.6	34-21	12 1/2
TEXAS	Kansas	26.3	38-12	24
Bowling Green	KENT ST.	10.7	31-20	5
Air Force	NEW MEXICO	27.7	42-14	28 1/2
TULSA	S m u	3.1	37-34	3
ARIZONA ST.	Colorado	28.4	38-10	30 1/2
EAST CAROLINA	Tulane	26.8	40-13	18
TEXASA&M	Missouri	11.2	38-27	11
TEXASTECH	Iowa St.	18.2	38-20	17 1/2
MIAMI(O)	Buffalo	5.8	28-22	8
NOTRE DAME	Navy	27.8	45-17	17 1/2
Florida  (N)	Georgia	0.5	24-23	NL
LOUISIANATECH	San Jose St.	3.7	31-27	9 1/2
CENTRAL FLORIDA	Memphis	27.7	41-13	29
Hawaii	IDAHO	12.8	38-25	11
Colorado St.	U N L V	3.7	28-24	3 1/2
UTAH	Oregon St.	4.1	27-23	7
California	U C L A	5.3	31-26	5 1/2
WASHINGTON	Arizona	7.1	30-23	8
OREGON	Washington St.	35.3	56-21	32 1/2
South Carolina	TENNESSEE	6.9	20-10	6 1/2
Oklahoma	KANSAS ST.	12.2	42-30	13 1/2
OKLAHOMA ST.	Baylor	25.8	50-24	18
Wisconsin	OHIO ST.	11.1	25-14	8 1/2
Southern Miss.	U T E P	16.8	38-21	11
Stanford	SOUTHERN CAL	13.8	35-21	8 1/2
Nevada	NEW MEXICO ST.	19.1	40-21	15
SAN DIEGO ST.	Wyoming	17.7	35-17	17
UL-MONROE	Western Kentucky	3.4	31-28	6 1/2
ARKANSAS ST.	North Texas	13.4	34-21	14 1/2
UL-Lafayette	MIDDLETENNESSEE	1.0	26-25	-3

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Two

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game. 

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl

Detroit, MI

8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Toledo (8-4)  vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)

Vegas: Toledo by 1

Totals: 57

PiRate: Toledo by 3.3

Mean: Toledo by 2.8

Bias: Toledo by 16.8

100 Sims: Toledo 67  Florida International 33

Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6  Florida International 25.7

Outlier A: Toledo 49  Florida International 19

Outlier B: Florida International 37  Toledo 24

 

Monday, December 27

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

Air Force (8-4)  vs.  Georgia Tech (6-6)

Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½  

Totals: 56

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7

Mean: Air Force by 5.2

Bias: Air Force by 5.9

100 Sims: Air Force 55  Georgia Tech 45

Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2  Georgia Tech 26.9

Outlier A: Air Force 41  Georgia Tech 23

Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34  A Force 23

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

6:30 PM EST on ESPN

West Virginia (9-3)  vs. North Carolina State (8-4)

Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½

Totals: 49

PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8

Mean: West Virginia by 2.3

Bias: West Virginia by 3.0

100 Sims: West Virginia 53  North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)

Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8  North Carolina State 25.2

Outlier A: West Virginia 27  North Carolina State 10

Outlier B: North Carolina State 28  West Virginia 12

 

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM EST

Missouri (10-2)  vs.  Iowa (7-5)

Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½

Totals: 46 ½

PiRate: Even

Mean: Missouri by 4.1

Bias: Missouri by 12.6

100 Sims: Missouri 58  Iowa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6  Iowa 22.3

Outlier A: Missouri 31  Iowa 13

Outlier B: Iowa 21  Missouri 7

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl

Washington, D.C.

2:30 PM on EST

Maryland (8-4)  vs. East Carolina (6-6)

Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½

Totals: 68 ½

PiRate: Maryland by 18.4

Mean: Maryland by 11.2

Bias: Maryland by 13.8

100 Sims: East Carolina 51  Maryland 49

Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4  East Carolina 34.1

Outlier A: East Carolina 47  Maryland 31

Outlier B: Maryland 42  East Carolina 20

 

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

6:00 PM EST on ESPN

Baylor (7-5)  vs. Illinois (6-6)

Vegas: Baylor by 1

Totals: 62 ½

PiRate: Baylor by 2.4

Mean: Illinois by 1.6

Bias: Baylor by 6.9

100 Sims: Illinois 54  Baylor 46

Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1  Baylor 28.6

Outlier A: Illinois 34  Baylor 17

Outlier B: Baylor 28  Illinois 18

 

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM EST on ESPN

Oklahoma State (10-2)  vs. Arizona (7-5)

Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½

Totals: 66

PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1

Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1

Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6

100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61  Arizona 39

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0  Arizona 29.1

Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51  Arizona 27

Outlier B: Arizona 34  Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)

 

Thursday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U (7-6)  vs. Army (6-6)

Vegas: S M U by 7

Totals: 52

PiRate: S M U by 7.7

Mean: S M U by 3.2

Bias: S M U by 10.6

100 Sims: S M U 64  Army 36

Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2  Army 20.6

Outlier A: S M U 34  Army 10

Outlier B: Army 24  S M U 16

 

Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

3:20 PM EST

Syracuse (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 47 ½

PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5

Mean: Kansas State by 4.6

Bias: Syracuse by 2.3

100 Sims: Syracuse 53  Kansas State 47

Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1  Kansas State 18.6

Outlier A: Syracuse 24  Kansas State 7

Outlier B: Kansas State 17  Syracuse 3

 

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

6:30 PM EST

Tennessee (6-6)  vs. North Carolina (7-5)

Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½  

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8

Mean: North Carolina by 1.5

Bias: Tennessee by 6.6

100 Sims: Tennessee 50  North Carolina 50

Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5  North Carolina 23.9

Outlier A: Tennessee 30  North Carolina 14

Outlier B: North Carolina 27  Tennessee 12

 

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

10:00 PM EST

Nebraska (10-3)  vs. Washington (6-6)

Vegas: Nebraska by 14

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8

Mean: Nebraska by 11.5

Bias: Nebraska by 5.3

100 Sims: Nebraska 57  Washington 43

Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1  Washington 19.3

Outlier A: Nebraska 27  Washington 6

Outlier B: Washington 23  Nebraska 14

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

12:00 Noon EST

South Florida (7-5)  vs. Clemson (6-6)

Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½

Totals: 40 ½

PiRate: Clemson by 5.1

Mean: Clemson by 3.7

Bias: South Florida by 6.1

100 Sims: South Florida 58  Clemson 42

Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1  Clemson 19.2

Outlier A: South Florida 31  Clemson 12

Outlier B: Clemson 28  South Florida 16

 

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

2:00 PM EST on CBS

Notre Dame (7-5)  vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)

Vegas: Miami by 3

Totals: 47

PiRate: Miami by 6.3

Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2

Bias: Miami by 6.0

100 Sims: Notre Dame 52  Miami 48

Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4  Miami 23.2

Outlier A: Notre Dame 30  Miami 14

Outlier B: Miami 35  Notre Dame 14

 

Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST on ESPN

Central Florida (10-3)  vs. Georgia (6-6)

Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½

Totals: 55 ½

PiRate: Georgia by 12.8

Mean: Georgia by 5.3

Bias: Georgia by 11.3

100 Sims: Georgia 72  Central Florida 28

Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6  Central Florida 17.3

Outlier A: Georgia 38  Central Florida 10

Outlier B: Central Florida 24  Georgia 19

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM EST on ESPN

South Carolina (9-4)  vs. Florida State (9-4)

Vegas: South Carolina by 3

Totals: 55

PiRate: Florida State by 0.4

Mean: South Carolina by 0.5

Bias: Florida State by 1.6

100 Sims: Florida State 52  South Carolina 48

Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7  Florida State 26.6

Outlier A: Florida State 30  South Carolina 16

Outlier B: South Carolina 44  Florida State 17

 

Saturday, January 1

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U

Texas Tech (7-5)  vs. Northwestern (7-5)

Vegas: Texas Tech by 10

Totals: 60

PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5

Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3

Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6

100 Sims: Texas Tech 86  Northwestern 14

Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6  Northwestern 21.2

Outlier A: Texas Tech 45  Northwestern 17

Outlier B: Northwestern 30  Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)

 

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

1:00 PM EST on ABC

Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)

Vegas: Florida by 7 ½  

Totals: 48

PiRate: Florida by 13.2

Mean: Florida by 5.1

Bias: Florida by 5.5

100 Sims: Florida 54  Penn State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6  Penn State 19.8

Outlier A: Florida 28  Penn State 13

Outlier B: Penn State 21  Florida 10

 

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL

1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Michigan State (11-1) vs.  Alabama (9-3)

Vegas: Alabama by 10

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Alabama by 15.5

Mean: Alabama by 10.4

Bias: Alabama by 3.2

100 Sims: Alabama 59  Michigan State 41

Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6  Michigan State 24.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan State 12

Outlier B: Michigan State 35  Alabama 25

 

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM EST on ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4)  vs.  Michigan (7-5)

Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½

Totals: 61

PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3

Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3

Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8

100 Sims: Mississippi State 52  Michigan 48

Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7  Michigan 30.1

Outlier A: Mississippi State 38  Michigan 20

Outlier B: Michigan 36  Mississippi State 27

 

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

T C U (12-0)  vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

Vegas: T C U by 3

Totals: 58 ½

PiRate: T C U by 7.9

Mean: T C U by 5.8

Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6

100 Sims: Wisconsin 54  T C U 46

Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4  T C U 28.8

Outlier A: Wisconsin 40  T C U 24

Outlier B: T C U 34  Wisconsin 24

 

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma (11-2)  vs. Connecticut (8-4)

Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2

Totals: 55

PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7

Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2

Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7

100 Sims: Oklahoma 91  Connecticut 9

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3  Connecticut 14.8

Outlier A: Oklahoma 49  Connecticut 7

Outlier B: Connecticut 27  Oklahoma 23

2010 Big 12 Conference Preview

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Big 12 Conference Preview

The Big 12 Conference almost ceased to exist this summer.  It looked like eight of the 12 teams would leave and end up in the Big Ten, Pac-10, and even SEC.  After the dust cleared, the conference was left with 10 teams.  Colorado was the only member of six possible teams to accept the Pac-10 bid.  Nebraska, tired of seeing Texas control the league, gladly accepted a bid to the Big Ten.  The rest of the league will hold a grudge in this final season before divorce becomes official.  Speaking of officials, this league will need close scrutiny this year.  After Nebraska felt they had been robbed in the Big 12 Championship Game, can they expect any better treatment this year? 

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos	North	B12	W-L
1	Nebraska	8-0	12-1
2	Missouri	4-4	8-4
3	Colorado	4-4	6-6
4	Kansas	3-5	5-7
5	Kansas State	2-6	6-6
6	Iowa State	1-7	3-9
Pos	South	B12	W-L
1	Oklahoma	7-1	12-1
2	Texas	6-2	10-2
3	Texas Tech	5-3	8-4
4	Texas A&M	4-4	7-5
5	Baylor	3-5	6-6
6	Oklahoma State	1-7	5-7

 

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma over Nebraska

 

BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

BCS Bowl: Nebraska

Cotton Bowl: Texas

Alamo Bowl: Missouri

Insight Bowl: Texas Tech

Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M

Texas Bowl: Baylor

Pinstripe Bowl: Colorado

Dallas Football Classic: Kansas State

 

 

Team By Team Breakdown

North Division

Team	Colorado Buffaloes
Head Coach	Dan Hawkins
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Boulder, CO
2009 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9
PiRate Rating	105.5
National Rating	45
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

Strengths: Offensive Line, Receivers, Defensive Line

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 24-27 points / 320-340 yards

Expected Defense: 24-27 points / 340-360 yards

Schedule: Out of Conference: Colorado State (n), @ California, Hawaii, and Georgia

Interdivision: Baylor, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Outlook: The Buffaloes need to settle on one quarterback, and Tyler Hansen is that man.  Hansen should get more time to pass and pass for 2,500 or more yards, and we don’t expect CU QBs to be sacked 44 times again.  Rodney Stewart could top 1,000 yards rushing.  Transfers from Michigan, USC and UCLA should bolster the receiving corps.  The offensive line returns the entire two-deep from last year, including nine players with starting experience.

A better pass rush should help the defense improve a little, but we don’t expect the Buffs to challenge for a top four position in the league.  Coach Dan Hawkins must win this year, or he will be out of a job.  We don’t know if 6-6 and a minor bowl will be enough, but that is what we think will happen.

Team	Iowa State Cyclones
Head Coach	Paul Rhoads
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