PiRate Ratings Elite 8 Preview

RED-WHITE-BLUE RATINGS

Saturday, March 25
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Gonzaga	Xavier	11	8	3
Kansas	Oregon	6	3	3

 

Sunday, March 26
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Kentucky	North Carolina	1	-2	-1
Florida	South Carolina	6	7	5

 

PiRate Ratings National Championship Criteria Breakdown of the Elite 8

Gonzaga vs. Xavier

Power Conference: Xavier-Yes, Gonzaga-No    Favors Xavier

Strength of Schedule: Xavier 58.70, Gonzaga 54.02  Favors Xavier by a little

R+T Rating: Gonzaga 20.3, Xavier 14.4  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Scoring Margin: Gonzaga 22.3, Xavier 4.0  Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

FG% Differential: Gonzaga 14.5, Xavier 1.1  Favors Gonzaga by a lot

Road W-L: Gonzaga 20-0, Xavier 12-9   Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

Winning Streaks: Gonzaga 29 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Expected Possessions in this Game: 69 per team  Favors neither team

Outcome: Gonzaga has everything going for it except conference strength and schedule.  If the Bulldogs had the same numbers and played in the Big East, they would have the perfect resume for a national champion.  However, there hasn’t been a national champion from outside a power conference since UNLV won in 1990, and before that, it was Texas Western in 1966.  Of course, non power conference teams have made it to the Final Four numerous times in the past decade.

Criteria Selection: GONZAGA 75  Xavier 70

 

Kansas vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Yes for Both   Favors neither team

Strength of Schedule: Kansas 58.11, Oregon 56.83  Only slightly favors Kansas

R+T Rating: Oregon 14.8,  Kansas 12.6  Only slightly favors Oregon

Scoring Margin: Oregon 13.5, Kansas 12.0  Not much difference

FG% Differential: Oregon 7.7, Kansas 7.5  A Push

Road W-L: Kansas 16-3, Oregon 15-5  This favors Kansas, but it is almost a home game for KU

Winning Streaks: Kansas 18 & 8, Oregon 17 & 8  A Push

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Slightly favors Kansas

Outcome: We have to include two extra criteria here.  Oregon’s stats must be slightly discounted due to the loss of Boucher, and Kansas is playing this game in their favorite venue not named Phog Allen Fieldhouse, earning about two points of home court advantage.   Otherwise, this game would be a tossup, and it still might be rather close.  However, watching what KU did to a quality Purdue team on this court Thursday night, it makes us wonder if any college team can beat Kansas in KC.  Oops!  That happened in the Big 12 Tournament, so think again–except not today.

Criteria Selection: KANSAS 83  Oregon 75

 

Florida vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both and both in the SEC so this is a third game between these teams.  Both teams won the game on their home floor.

Strength of Schedule: Florida 59.34, South Carolina 56.23  A slight edge to the Gators

R+T Rating: Florida 11.1, South Carolina 10.4  About the same

Scoring Margin: Florida 11.9, South Carolina 8.3  A small edge to the Gators

FG% Differential: Florida 4.3, South Carolina 2.3  A small edge to the Gators

Road W-L: Florida 18-7, South Carolina 10-7, actually about the same as UF played a lot of early neutral site games in their own backyard while their gym was being refurbished

Winning Streaks: Florida 9 & 7, South Carolina 8 & 5

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Favors neither team

Outcome: South Carolina’s defense in their Sweet 16 game against Baylor was the best we have seen in a game this late into the Big Dance since Georgetown manhandled Kentucky in 1984, which comes on top of one of the best offensive performances in their win over Duke.  Can the Gamecocks do this to a team that is not just a conference foe, but a rather strong rival?  Florida might also be a tad fatigued coming off the overtime win over Wisconsin, but it helps that the Gators are facing a team they know about without having to look at the film for a long time.  This will be the most exciting game of this round, even more exciting than the big UK-UNC match, because this will have the feel of the 7th game of an NBA playoff series.

Criteria Selection: FLORIDA 67  South Carolina 64

 

Kentucky vs. North Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both  Before the tourney started, the ACC might have gotten a little extra over the SEC, but with 3 of the Elite 8 from the SEC, it almost makes us think about the opposite

Strength of Schedule: North Carolina 59.00, Kentucky 58.63   A Push

R+T Rating: North Carolina 31.0,  Kentucky 17.1  UNC has the best R+T in NCAA basketball, but Kentucky’s is rather high as well, and in the course of this game, it will not give the Tar Heels a lot of advantage

Scoring Margin: North Carolina 14.7, Kentucky 13.8  Not enough difference to matter

FG% Differential: North Carolina 5.6,  Kentucky 5.2  A Push

Road W-L: Kentucky 17-3, North Carolina 14-7,  A slight edge to the Wildcats

Winning Streaks: Kentucky 14 & 7, North Carolina 13 & 7, While this looks like another push, Kentucky’s 14-game winning streak is ongoing, and there is a definite difference in the Wildcats’ performance in this streak, while Carolina played its best basketball in November and December

Expected Possessions in this Game: 74,  which favors Kentucky just like it did in December

Outcome: We selected Kentucky to run the table and win the National Championship before the NCAA Tournament started, and nothing has changed our beliefs that the Wildcats are the best team in the nation when they want to play up to their potential.  It can be difficult to motivate a stable full of future NBA Lottery picks, but Coach John Calipari is a master psychologist with an ability to coerce through his many talks with his players.  When any of the starters and a couple reserves can go off and score 25 points in a game, it is hard to prepare in advance.  Stop Monk, and someone else has a career night.

Criteria Selection: KENTUCKY 85  North Carolina 73

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PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 505 Sweet 16 Criteria Reveal

If you get to start anew with your brackets in whatever pool you are playing in as a participant, we have updated our PiRate Ratings Criteria for the Sweet 16.
If you played along with us, you should have 10 teams left in your Sweet 16, having 26 of the 32 first round winners. If you are in a league where you get one point for each winner that goes from 64 to 32, and two points for every correct Sweet 16 team, then you should be sitting pretty with 46 points. Hopefully, we will help you score some 3-point winners the next two nights, whether you must stick with your original picks, or you get to start over with the 16 remaining teams.

To understand our methods if you don’t already know, refer to this primer: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/bracketnomics-505-the-advanced-level-course-in-bracket-selection/

Here is a breakdown of each game for the next two nights, followed by an update at how the Elite 8 and Final Four look using our criteria.

Oregon vs. Michigan
Power Conference: Both teams

Strength of Schedule: Very slight edge to Michigan, but not enough to matter much

R+T Rating: Large edge to Oregon, as the Ducks’ R+T is 14.7 to the Wolverines’ 3.2. This means that on average, Oregon will have an opportunity through superior rebounding, ball-steals, and overall turnover differential to outscore Michigan by 11.5 points. There is a caveat, as the Ducks are missing a key component in Chris Boucher.
Ability to Win Away from Home: Oregon 14-5/Michigan 11-8. The Ducks have a decent advantage here, but not enough to move this game to the win column.

Winning Streak(s): The Ducks won 17 games in a row at one point this season and eight in a row another time, while Michigan had two, five-game winning streaks. Once again, Oregon has the advantage here, but we cannot annoint the Ducks winners just yet. Not having Boucher removes a lot of these advantages three rounds into the Big Dance.

Since the strengths of schedule are similar, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Michigan = 8.9, Oregon = 13.8, Ducks look better here
FG% Differential: Michigan = 1.9, Oregon = 7.8, Ducks look much better here, as UM fails to qualify
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 68

This is a tough game to figure out, because Boucher’s absence makes Oregon less than what the stats say. Still, the Ducks come out as the superior team based on how we use the criteria. In our original picks, we had Louisville knocking Oregon out of the tournament in this round, but the Cardinals were sent packing last weekend.

PiRate Criteria Pick: OREGON

 

Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Power Conference: West Virginia is, Gonzaga is not. A slight edge to the Mountaineers

Strength of Schedule: WVU 55.55. Gonzaga 54.02, a slight edge to the Mountaineers

R+T Rating: WVU 19.1, Gonzaga 21.2, a push when SOS is applied

Ability to Win Away from Home: WVU 11-6, Gonzaga 19-0, even with SOS factored into the equation, Gonzaga has the advantage here.

Winning Streak(s): WVU 8 & 4, Gonzaga 29 & 5, Gonzaga enjoys a small advantage

We must handicap these stats with Gonzaga playing in a weaker conference and a slightly weaker schedule
Scoring Margin: WVU 15.3, Gonzaga 22.8, a push
FG% Differential: WVU 3.4, Gonzaga 14.5
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 71

This is where we see another #1 seed going down. Gonzaga’s main Achilles Heel is their conference, where the WCC has two other quality teams. Of course, teams like Butler, George Mason, VCU, and Wichita State have advanced to the Final Four, but the percentages say that these are exceptions and not the norm. When you are trying to win a contest by going with the percentages, you go with the norm unless you have a major reason not to do so. When looking at the obvious way this game will deviate from the norm, it comes from the vaunted WVU full-court press, something that Gonzaga has not faced from a quality team this year. It is our belief that GU will commit very few turnovers against the press and even capitalize with a couple of easy baskets, making it look like to the casual fan that the press is not working. However, we believe it will take the Bulldogs out of their offense just enough to cause them to rush and make poor shot selections, and it will also begin to wear their bigger, bulkier players down in the second half. A fatigued team is only a shell of itself, and once GU is fatigued, WVU will pull away and win this game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WEST VIRGINIA

Kansas vs. Purdue
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: KU 58.11, PU 55.83, a decided advantage for the Jayhawks

R+T Rating: KU 12.3, PU 15.5, a credible advantage for the Boilermakers

Ability to Win Away from Home: KU 16-3, PU 12-5, a tiny advantage for KU

Winning Streak(s): KU 18 & 8, PU 7 & 6, KU has the advantage, but this isn’t overwhelming since PU has two 6+ streaks, and that is all we are looking for in this criterion

Since the strengths of schedule favor KU enough to matter, we must handicap the following stats.
Scoring Margin: KU 11.4, PU 12.6, with the handicap, KU has a minor advantage here
FG% Differential: KU 7.3, PU 6.4, a slight edge to the Jayhawks
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 72 which will favor KU in the 2nd half

In previous years where Purdue was very good, we would call for Kansas to easily win this game because in the past, Purdue did not own good R+T numbers. In fact, they were downright awful. However, this year is very different up in West Lafayatte, where Purdue has an R+T number strong enough to reach the Final Four. Unfortunately, Kansas has the criteria strong enough to win the National Championship, and thus we must go with the team that is only a tad better in this game. A Boilermaker win would not be a surprise at all, but we must go with the percentages.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KANSAS (but this should be an outstanding game)

Arizona vs. Xavier
Power Conference: Both (in recent years, we would discount the Pac-12 some, but not this year. Three league teams made the Sweet 16.

Strength of Schedule: Arizona 58.17, Xavier 58.70, a wash

R+T Rating: Arizona 18.0, Xavier 15.2, the Wildcats with an ever so slight advantage that is not enough to mean much

Ability to Win Away from Home: Arizona 17-3, Xavier 11-9, this is a big advantage for ‘Zona

Winning Streak(s): Arizona 15 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6, Another tiny advantage to the Wildcats

Since the strengths of schedule are almost identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Arizona 11.0, Xavier 4.1, the Wildcats have a major advantage here, as XU’s scoring margin is well beneath the threshold of a Final Four contender.
FG% Differential: Arizona 6.0, Xavier 0.9, another big edge for Arizona
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67

This one appears to be headed to a double-digit win for the higher-seeded team. Add on to the criteria the fact that Xavier has not been the same since Edmund Sumner was lost for the year at the end of January, and this game looks like a potential breeze for Arizona.
PiRate Criteria Pick: ARIZONA (by double digits)

 

North Carolina vs. Butler
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UNC 59.00, BU 59.04, a total push

R+T Rating: UNC 31.1, BU 9.5, do we really need to go on after this criterion shows the Tar Heels with a chance on average to score 20 more points on rebounds, steals, and turnovers?

Ability to Win Away from Home: UNC 13-7, BU 12-5, pretty much even here

Winning Streak(s): UNC 13 & 7, BU 12 & 5, another push

Since the strengths of schedule are identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: UNC 14.8, BU 7.8, Give the Heels a little more advantage here
FG% Differential: UNC 5.5, BU 3.7, more props for the Heels
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 70 (Butler will want to slow the pace, but they will have to play catchup)

Pirate Criteria Pick: NORTH CAROLINA

Baylor vs. South Carolina
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: BU 59.40, USC 56.23, the Bears have a little advantage here

R+T Rating: BU 19.3, USC 10.4, Baylor with decent advantage in this one

Ability to Win Away from Home: BU 12-5, USC 11-7, another tilt to the Bears

Winning Streak(s): BU 15 & 5, USC 8 & 5, BU with yet another advantage

Since the strengths of schedule favors Baylor, the following stats must be handicapped a little
Scoring Margin: BU 10.1, USC 7.9, the criteria keeps tilting green
FG% Differential: BU 7.2, USC 1.9, this continues the trend
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67, Baylor will conrol the pace.

PiRate Criteria Pick: BAYLOR

 

Kentucky vs. UCLA
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UK 58.63, UCLA 54.00, a nice advantage for the Wildcats, but UCLA still meets the minimum number for Final Four consideration, and remember UCLA won at Kentucky earlier this season

R+T Rating: UK 17.2, UCLA 10.9

Ability to Win Away from Home: UK 16-3, UCLA 14-3, nothing to learn here

Winning Streak(s): UK 13 & 7, UCLA 13 & 10, not much here either

We must handicap the following stats in UK’s favor fde to the strengths of schedule
Scoring Margin: UK 13.9, UCLA 15.0, basically a wash
FG% Differential: UK 5.4, UCLA 10.2, The Bruins pick up a big advantage here with Championship-caliber differential
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 74, expect the most up-tempo game of the Sweet 16, and it could even top 75.

Face it: this is the game that is going to make this round. The winner most likely plays North Carolina in the Elite 8, making for a fantastic 48-hours in Memphis, where they could move these games to the Liberty Bowl and still not have enough seats for the fans that want to get in. Think of this game like the second Ali-Frazier fight. Or, if you are a Bruin fan over the age of 55, be forewarned and remember that Houston beat your Bruins in the 1967-68 regular season before meeting up with the worst ever whipping by a number one team in the history of the game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KENTUCKY — Until the Wildcats are knocked out of the tournament, they have the best resume when comparing it to past National Champions.

 

Florida vs. Wisconsin
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: Fla 59.34, UW 54.79, The Gators have a decided advantage

R+T Rating: Fla 3.3, UW 3.3 This is a dirty wash, as neither team can expect to be a Championship team with these R+T ratings.

Ability to Win Away from Home: Fla 17-7, UW 12-7, Florida played a lot of neutral site games near home when their arena was not ready following remodeling. This becomes a wash

Winning Streak(s): Fla. 9 & 7, UW 9 & 8, a wash

Since the strengths of schedule favor the Gators, the following stats must be handicapped in UF’s favor. Scoring Margin: UF 6.2, UW 9.2, a wash
FG% Differential: UF 4.6, UW 4.2, a small edge for the Gators
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 69 We look for the Badgers to slow the tempo a little

When Florida isn’t playing Vanderbilt, they look like Final Four contenders. Actually, two of the three losses to the Commodores came after the Gators lost John Egbunu for the season due to injury, and UF went from 23-5 to 24-8 after that loss. This discounts the Gators’ results enough to make up for the schedule strength favor. In other words, this is a game where you flip a coin. We do not use the Four Factors in this criteria selection process, but if we were to use them for this game, it would just add a bunch of balance, as the teams would come out dead even. We must select somebody to go on and lose to Baylor Sunday, and just because they have a little more recent NCAA Tournament success, we will go with the Badgers.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WISCONSIN –but this is really a tie

Elite 8 to Final Four
Baylor over Wisconsin
Arizona over West Virginia
Kentucky over North Carolina
Kansas over Oregon

Semifinals
Baylor over Arizona
Kentucky over Kansas

Championship
Kentucky over Baylor

Note: When we first revealed the criteria for all 68 teams in the dance, we listed the top 10 teams with the best matching criteria to past champions. The top 6 teams in this list, and 8 of the 10 made the Sweet 16. Here is that top 10 again.
1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Baylor
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Villanova
9. Kansas
10. Purdue

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Games

Sweet 16

Thursday, March 23
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Oregon	Michigan	-1	-1	-1
Gonzaga	West Virginia	4	2	9
Kansas	Purdue	4	4	1
Arizona	Xavier	4	4	4

 

Friday, March 24
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
North Carolina	Butler	6	6	12
Baylor	South Carolina	3	5	7
Kentucky	UCLA	2	-1	1
Florida	Wisconsin	5	4	-2

 

TV Schedule

Region	Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
Thursday, March 23
Midwest	7:09 PM	CBS	Oregon	vs.	Michigan
West	7:39 PM	TBS	Gonzaga	vs.	West Virginia
Midwest	9:39 PM	CBS	Kansas	vs.	Purdue
West	10:09 PM	TBS	Arizona	vs.	Xavier
Friday, March 24
South	7:09 PM	CBS	North Carolina	vs.	Butler
East	7:29 PM	TBS	Baylor	vs.	South Carolina
South	9:39 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	UCLA
East	9:59 PM	TBS	Florida	vs.	Wisconsin
Saturday, March 25
Midwest	TBA	TBA	Oregon/Michigan	vs.	Kansas/Purdue
West	TBA	TBA	Gonzaga/WVU	vs.	Arizona/Xavier
Sunday, March 26
South	TBA	TBA	UNC/Butler	vs.	Kentucky/UCLA
East	TBA	TBA	Baylor/S Car	vs.	Florida/Wisconsin

 

 

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-1	3	1
Baylor	New Mexico St.	11	12	13
Arkansas	Seton Hall	2	1	-1
Oregon	Iona	11	12	10
Louisville	Jacksonville St.	18	18	17
SMU	USC	8	8	4
North Carolina	Texas Southern	22	20	19
Creighton	Rhode Island	4	1	2
Kansas	UC-Davis	22	19	18
Dayton	Wichita St.	-7	-5	-1
Duke	Troy	15	16	14
Cincinnati	Kansas St.	2	5	2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	1	2	-2
Kentucky	Northern Kentucky	19	18	13
South Carolina	Marquette	1	-1	1
UCLA	Kent St.	16	14	10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:15 PM	CBS	Michigan	vs.	Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	New Mexico St.
1:30 PM	TNT	Arkansas	vs.	Seton Hall
2:00 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Iona
2:45 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM	truTV	SMU	vs.	USC
4:00 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Texas Southern
4:30 PM	TBS	Creighton	vs.	Rhode Island
6:50 PM	TNT	Kansas	vs.	UC-Davis
7:10 PM	CBS	Dayton	vs.	Wichita St.
7:20 PM	TBS	Duke	vs.	Troy
7:27 PM	truTV	Cincinnati	vs.	Kansas St.
9:20 PM	TNT	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Michigan St.
9:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM	TBS	South Carolina	vs.	Marquette
9:57 PM	truTV	UCLA	vs.	Kent St.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 505 Bracket Reveal & First Four Preview

For those that just want to see our Red-White-Blue Ratings for the First Four, here they are.

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
New Orleans	Mount St. Mary’s	3	-1	1
Wake Forest	Kansas St.	1	1	1
UNC-Central	UC-Davis	4	3	6
Providence	USC	1	1	1

Now, for the rest of you:

Welcome one and all to our annually most viewed edition of the PiRate Ratings.  We have been working diligently for the past 42 hours getting this edition of March Madness Bracketnomics ready for you.

If you are new to this site today, there is something you need to do, and even if you are not, you should take this advice.  Open another window and bring up our primer from yesterday where we explain how we have come up with the numbers that we will show you today.  The link to the primer is:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/bracketnomics-505-the-advanced-level-course-in-bracket-selection/

Before we begin picking winners in our bracket based on the PiRate Criteria, let us give you another little bit of advice in selecting your own brackets.

1. Do not select a lot of early upsets.  Realize that nobody ever has picked a perfect bracket.  The chances are so slim that nobody may ever pick one!  The key to winning bracket contests where you must choose all the games at the beginning and do not get to select new winners after every round is to pick the National Champion, the Final Four, and the Elite 8 teams.  Realize that in about 95% of the cases, the Final Four teams come from one, two, three, or four seeds.  There will frequently be a seed lower than 4, but good luck trying to pick one.  What you will most likely do is remove one of the favorites to get there, so select very few upsets early.
2. In the last 60+ years, only 2 times was the national champion a team from outside a major conference, and it has not happened since 1990.  So, go heavy on the best teams in the power conferences–Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.  No Pac-12 team has won the title since Arizona beat Kentucky in 1997, so you might discount the Pac-12 a little.  No Big Ten team has won the title since Michigan State in 2000, so you might also want to discount the Big Ten a little.
3. The most likely spots for upsets early come from 10-11-12 seed lines for good reason.  The top lower and mid-major teams usually end up on one of these seed lines, and in actuality, some of these teams would beat their higher-seed opponent 7 times out of 10.  In other words, these upsets are not really upsets.  They are incorrect seedings by the Committee.

Okay, we will leave the rest of that strategy up to you.  Let’s get to the Bracketnomics Facts for 2017

 

Who Has The Statistical Criteria That Looks Like A Final Four Team

This is an unusual year.  There are no teams closely similar to the Connecticut women’s team.  There is no obvious best team like in some years out of the past.  On the other hand, there are an inordinate amount of teams this year that look like they would have trouble winning the NIT 10 years ago.  There is parity by virtue of mediocrity.  The way the game is played in 2017, and with the 30-second shot clock, the game has become harder to isolate on just two or three teams and call them the heavy favorites to make the Final Four.

Let’s eliminate some teams so that what we have left is a much easier group to compare.

A. First, let’s forget the chance that a low-major or mid-major conference team will make the Final Four this year.  This does not include Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, or Wichita State, who we consider to be above mid-major.

B. Next, let’s take out any team that played a schedule too soft to prepare them for the top echelon of opponents.  From what’s left after (A), that will remove Wichita State and UCLA.

C. Next, let’s dump any team with a single-digit R+T rating after the Sweet 16 round.  Any single digit team in the Elite 8 gets knocked out, unless their opponent also has a single digit rating.  From this list of teams still in contention after (A) and (B), we now dump: South Carolina, Butler, Wake Forest, Arkansas, Minnesota, Michigan State, USC, Northwestern, Michigan, Notre Dame, Maryland, Marquette, Kansas State, Providence, Iowa State, Creighton, Vanderbilt, and Virginia Tech.

D. Let’s remove any teams that are missing key players and might be able to get to the Sweet 16 without these players, but they are most likely to bow out at this point when the competition is too strong.  Say good bye to Xavier and Oregon.  For now, Creighton and Florida stay in because they played a significant number of games without their key players.

Now we have a much more manageable list of Final Four and Elite 8 Contenders, down to just 21 teams.

But, we are not finished eliminating teams.  What about teams that have not played all that well away from home?  We can eliminate the 22-9 team that went 17-0 at home and 5-9 away from home, because these teams are not going to all of a sudden beat the nation’s finest teams away from their home floor, at least not 4 consecutive times.

Let’s now say bye bye to Florida State, Miami (Fla.), and Seton Hall, lowering the number to 19.

And, then there is the essential thing of having enough consistency to win four games in a row against quality competition.  We cannot keep any teams that did not sustain at least one long winning streak or two extended winning streaks.  Only West Virginia fails to meet this criterion from the remaining group, lowering our list to 18.

Now,  let’s look at how the remaining 18 teams rate in the criteria that matter.

Scoring Margin

There is a reason both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are still in this list.  They are serious contenders this year.  Gonzaga has the highest scoring margin and Saint Mary’s has the third highest among the 17 remaining teams.  From the list of 17, there are a couple teams that do not meet the 8 point minimum to be considered as a strong Final Four contender.  There are teams that make the Final Four with less than 8 point scoring margins, but they are the exception rather than the rule, and we are looking for angles that increase our percentage chance of hitting on Final Four teams.  It’s the end of the line here for Oklahoma State.

 

Field Goal Percentage Differential

Eventually, in order to get to the Final Four, a team is going to have to be superior when it comes to shooting and defending the shot, because eventually, being able to dominate the glass or force a lot of turnovers will not work against teams that can also rebound and force turnovers.  We are looking only for a difference of 5% or more to stay in the hunt for Final Four contention.  We must say adieu to three more teams that cannot meet this standard–Florida, Duke, and Wisconsin.  Now we have 14 teams on our list of Final Four contenders.

 

Rebound Margin

Remember that R+T rating is much more important than any of its components (Rebounding, Turnovers, and Steals), but for Final Four consideration, well over 90% of the past Final Four teams had positive rebound margin.  In what may help vindicate our selections to this point, all 14 teams remaining have positive rebounding margin.

 

Okay, Already, Who Is Left?

The following teams have resumes that could get them to the Final Four.  In alphabetical order, they are: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina, Purdue, Saint Mary’s, SMU, Villanova, Virginia, and West Virginia.  If our criteria is worth anything these years, we expect the Final Four to come from this list of teams.  But, we need to do better.  You cannot select 14 teams to make the Final Four or even Elite 8.

 

What we need to do now is look at each game as it is played.  It won’t help us to go with the 4 best resumes if these teams cannot all make the Final Four because they will play each other prior to that round.

Here is how we see the First Four games according to PiRate Criteria.  Note that our criteria and our Red-White-Blue Ratings have no real correlation, so the teams we predict to win may not be the same as the teams our criteria says will win.

First Four

New Orleans over Mount St. Mary’s

UNC-Central over UC-Davis

USC over Providence

Kansas St. over Wake Forest

Most brackets allow you to miss here without penalty and start in earnest at 64 teams, but we don’t go for that.

Round of 64

You will not see us picking many upsets in this round.  Remember the important factoid we revealed at the beginning: you win your bracket contests by getting your teams into the Elite 8, Final 4, and National Championship.  If you pick a lot of upsets, you are liable to have very few teams left by the Elite 8.

Villanova over New Orleans (Mount St. Mary’s)

Wisconsin over Virginia Tech

Virginia over UNC-Wilmington (upset possible, but we’ll take the Cavs)

Florida over East Tennessee (like a home game for the Gators)

SMU over USC in a rematch (also over Providence) near tossup vs. USC close to 50-50

Baylor over New Mexico St.

South Carolina over Marquette in close one that will be like home game for Gamecocks.

Duke over Troy

Gonzaga over South Dakota St.

Northwestern over Vanderbilt (close game)

Notre Dame over Princeton

West Virginia over Bucknell (not this year for Bison as Mountaineers are too physical)

Maryland over Xavier (Chris Mack becomes an early candidate for other big openings)

Florida State over Florida Gulf Coast (FGCU not as strong as their Sweet 16 team)

Saint Mary’s over VCU (Will Wade comes free for promotion to power conference team)

Arizona over North Dakota

Kansas over UNC-Central (UC-Davis)

Miami over Michigan State (MSU one and done two years in a row)

Iowa State over Nevada (but this one should be nip and tuck)

Purdue over Vermont (Boilermakers finally have the right type of resume to advance)

Creighton over Rhode Island (freeing up Dan Hurley if a big school wants him)

Oregon over Iona (loss of Chris Boucher does not hurt yet)

Oklahoma State over Michigan (This upset we will pick.  Cowboys have better criteria resume)

Louisville over Jacksonville State (UL almost has a home game in Indy)

North Carolina over Texas Southern

Seton Hall over Arkansas (should be physical and close)

Minnesota over Middle Tennessee (Blue Raiders are the Vegas favorite, but Gophers can exploit interior defense)

Butler over Winthrop (we would not be shocked if Butler has to rally to win this one)

Cincinnati over Kansas State (Wake Forest)

UCLA over Kent State

Wichita St. over Dayton (Will Archie Miller be the next NC State coach?)

Kentucky over Northern Kentucky (Norse would be happy with a lead at under 16 timeout in 1st half)

 

Round of 32

Villanova over Wisconsin

Virginia over Florida (should be very close, maybe overtime)

Baylor over SMU (this one should be a great game–Tim Jankovich in play at Illinois)

Duke over South Carolina (We don’t see Frank Martin leaving the Palmetto State unless he has 4 million reasons)

Gonzaga over Northwestern (Cinderella season ends here–no Cubs repeat in the Windy City)

West Virginia over Notre Dame (Irish wear down in the second half)

Florida State over Maryland

Arizona over Saint Mary’s (expect a hard-fought game but Gaels are outmanned)

Kansas over Miami (closer than expected)

Purdue over Iowa State (Boilermakers look impressive to this point)

Oregon over Creighton (Boucher’s absence felt but not enough for Ducks to lose)

Louisville over Oklahoma St. (Brad Underwood vs. Rick Pitino–Brilliant!)

North Carolina over Seton Hall

Butler over Minnesota (Should be a great game)

Cincinnati over UCLA (Bruins numbers padded by substandard overall schedule–not strong enough inside)

Kentucky over Wichita State (because Wildcat players appear to be on a mission and if so are the class of the field)

 

Sweet 16 to Elite 8

Villanova over Virginia (Cavs do not have enough offense to win at this point)

Baylor over Duke (Our big upset pick in this round, because Duke has holes Bears can exploit)

West Virginia over Gonzaga (Sorry Bulldog fans, WVU style of play is not what you want to face)

Arizona over Florida State (We expect Wildcats to win big in this one)

Kansas over Purdue (KU will have to play lights out to put Boilermakers away)

Louisville over Oregon (Boucher’s absence is too much to overcome in this round

North Carolina over Butler (If Heels are rolling at this point, then next round is actual title game)

Kentucky over Cincinnati (Should be ultra-physical and highly emotional game)

 

Elite 8 to Final Four

Unfortunately, at this point the top two teams in the field will meet

Baylor over Villanova (no repeat for Wildcats but a great game)

Arizona over West Virginia (Mountaineers run out of gas at this point)

Louisville over Kansas (Cards win a sloppy game)

Kentucky over North Carolina (This should have been the National Championship Game)

 

Final Four Semifinals

Baylor over Arizona (tough to go against a team playing in its home state)

Kentucky over Louisville (how much will this ticket cost)

 

National Championship

Kentucky over Baylor

 

The Kentucky criteria best matches that of past national champions.  Add to the fact that they have the most talent and a coach that can use the right psychology to motivate these future millionaires to play like their draft status is to be determined in this tournament, and we believe the Wildcats will cut the nets in Arizona.

 

Here is how the 14 top Pirate Criteria teams rank overall

1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Baylor
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Villanova
9. Kansas
10. Purdue
11. Duke
12. Cincinnati
13. Saint Mary’s
14. SMU

 

TV Schedule For First Four in Dayton

Day	Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
Tuesday, March 14	6:40 PM	truTV	New Orleans	vs.	Mount St. Mary’s
Tuesday, March 14	9:10 PM	truTV	Wake Forest	vs.	Kansas St.
Wednesday, March 15	6:40 PM	truTV	UC-Davis	vs.	UNC-Central
Wednesday, March 15	9:10 PM	truTV	USC	vs.	Providence

 

 

 

 

The Pirate Ratings Bracketology Gurus Report For March 6, 2017

NOTE: Today, we combine our Bracketology Gurus Report with our conference tournament updates.

Automatic Bids Awarded

Ohio Valley Conference: JACKSONVILLE ST. (20-14)

Big South Conference: WINTHROP (26-6)

Missouri Valley Conference: WICHITA ST. (30-4)

Atlantic Sun Conference: FLORIDA GULF COAST (26-7)

Today’s TV Schedule

Championship Games–Winner Gets Automatic Bid

Time (ET)	Network	Conference	Team	vs.	Team
7:00 PM	CBSSN	Colonial	UNC-Wilmington	vs.	College of Charleston
7:00 PM	ESPN2	SoCon	UNC-Greensboro	vs.	East Tennessee St.
9:00 PM	ESPN2	MAAC	Siena	vs.	Iona

Other Conference Tournament Games Today

Time (ET)	Network	Conference	Team	vs.	Team
5:00 PM	ESPN3	MEAC	MD-Eastern Shore	vs.	N.C. A&T
7:00 PM	ESPN3	Summit	South Dakota	vs.	South Dakota St.
7:00 PM	ESPN3	Amer. East	Vermont	vs.	New Hampshire
7:00 PM	ESPNU	Horizon	Northern Kentucky	vs.	Youngstown St.
7:00 PM	ESPN3	MAC	Eastern Michigan	vs.	Northern Illinois
7:00 PM	Kent St. Sports	MAC	Kent St.	vs.	Central Michigan
7:00 PM	ESPN3	MEAC	Coppin St.	vs.	Howard
7:30 PM	ESPN3	Amer. East	Stony Brook	vs.	Albany
7:30 PM	ESPN3	MAC	Western Michigan	vs.	Miami (O)
8:00 PM	ESPN3	MAC	Toledo	vs.	Bowling Green
9:00 PM	ESPN	WCC	Gonzaga	vs.	Santa Clara
9:30 PM	ESPN3	Summit	IUPUI	vs.	Omaha
9:30 PM	ESPNU	Horizon	Illinois-Chicago	vs.	Milwaukee
11:30 PM	ESPN2	WCC	Saint Mary’s	vs.	BYU

 

The Bubble As of Monday, 3/6/2017 12 Noon ET

Getting Closer to Safe (Probably Still In With 1 & Done in Conference Tournament) 

Michigan

Arkansas

Seton Hall

Michigan St.

In Good Shape but Need Another Win in Conference Tournament

VCU

Marquette

Providence

Xavier

In Today, But Might Need 2 Conference Tournament Wins to Stay In

USC

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Syracuse

In For Now, But Likely To Fall With Just One Upset In Power Conference Tournament

Illinois St.

Out For Now, But With A Chance To Play In With Big Conference Tournament Wins (in order)

Kansas St.

Rhode Island

Illinois

Iowa

California

Ole Miss

Houston 

Georgia

Must Now Win Automatic Bid (or Definitely Make Conference Championship Game)

Georgia

Georgia Tech

Indiana

This Week’s Guru Seeds

Seed	Team
1	Villanova
1	Kansas
1	North Carolina
1	Gonzaga
2	Kentucky
2	Oregon
2	Louisville
2	Baylor
3	UCLA
3	Arizona
3	Florida St.
3	Butler
4	Duke
4	Florida
4	Purdue
4	West Virginia
5	Virginia
5	Notre Dame
5	Minnesota
5	Cincinnati
6	SMU
6	Saint Mary’s
6	Iowa St.
6	Maryland
7	Creighton
7	Wisconsin
7	Oklahoma St.
7	South Carolina
8	Miami
8	Northwestern
8	Dayton
8	Virginia Tech
9	Michigan
9	Arkansas
9	Wichita St.
9	Seton Hall
10	Michigan St.
10	VCU
10	Marquette
10	Providence
11	Xavier
11	USC
11	Middle Tennessee
11	Vanderbilt
11	Wake Forest
12	Syracuse
12	Illinois St.
12	Nevada
12	UNC-Wilmington
12	UT-Arlington
13	Princeton
13	Vermont
13	Winthrop
13	Akron
14	Bucknell
14	New Mexico St.
14	FGCU
14	UNC-Greensboro
15	Iona
15	South Dakota
15	Northern Kentucky
15	UC-Irvine
16	North Dakota
16	Texas Southern
16	Jacksonville St.
16	New Orleans
16	UNC-Central
16	Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes: Marquette, Providence, Xavier, USC

Last Four In (headed to Dayton): Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest, Syracuse vs. Illinois St.

First Four Out (#1 NIT Seeds): Kansas St., Rhode Island, Illinois, Iowa

Next Four Out (#2 NIT Seeds): California, Ole Miss, Houston, Utah

All Conference Tournament Brackets Up to Date

America East Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Vermont	26-5	vs.	8	Maine	7-24	86-41
2	2	Stony Brook	17-12	vs.	7	Binghamton	12-19	70-60
3	3	Albany	19-12	vs.	6	Hartford	9-22	100-71
4	4	New Hampshire	19-11	vs.	5	Md.-Baltimore Co.	18-11	74-65
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Vermont	27-5	vs.	4	New Hampshire	20-11	7:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Stony Brook	18-12	vs.	3	Albany	20-12	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
American Athletic Conference Tournament–Hartford,CT
First Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Temple	16-15	vs.	9	East Carolina	14-17	3:30 PM	ESPNU
2	7	Tulsa	14-16	vs.	10	Tulane	6-24	6:00 PM	ESPNNews
3	6	Connecticut	14-16	vs.	11	South Florida	7-22	8:00 PM	ESPNNews
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	1	SMU	27-4	vs.		Game 1 winner		12:00 PM	ESPN2
5	4	Central Florida	20-10	vs.	5	Memphis	19-12	2:00 PM	ESPN2
6	2	Cincinnati	27-4	vs.		Game 2 winner		7:00 PM	ESPNU
7	3	Houston	21-9	vs.		Game 3 winner		9:00 PM	ESPNU
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 5 winner		3:00 PM	ESPN2
9		Game 6 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		5:00 PM	ESPN2
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
10		Game 8 winner		vs.		Game 9 winner		3:15 PM	ESPN
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament–Brooklyn
First Round, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	12	Clemson	16-14	vs.	13	North Carolina St.	15-16	12:00 PM	ESPN2
2	10	Wake Forest	18-12	vs.	15	Boston College	9-22	2:00 PM	ESPN2
3	11	Georgia Tech	17-14	vs.	14	Pittsburgh	15-16	7:00 PM	ESPNU
Second Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	8	Syracuse	18-13	vs.	9	Miami (Fla.)	20-10	12:00 PM	ESPN
5	5	Duke	23-8	vs.		Game 1 winner		2:00 PM	ESPN
6	7	Virginia Tech	21-9	vs.		Game 2 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN2
7	6	Virginia	21-9	vs.		Game 3 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8	1	North Carolina		vs.		Game 4 winner		12:00 PM	ESPN
9	4	Louisville		vs.		Game 5 winner		2:00 PM	ESPN
10	2	Florida St.		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN
11	3	Notre Dame		vs.		Game 7 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN
Semfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
12		Game 8 winner		vs.		Game 9 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN or 2
13		Game 10 winner		vs.		Game 11 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN or 2
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
14		Game 12 winner		vs.		Game 13 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Monday, February 27
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Florida Gulf Coast	23-7	vs.	8	Stetson	11-20	87-57
2	2	Lipscomb	19-12	vs.	7	NJIT	11-19	97-66
3	3	North Florida	13-18	vs.	6	Jacksonville	17-14	77-74
4	4	USC-Upstate	17-14	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	13-17	78-80
Semifinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
5	1	Florida Gulf Coast	24-7	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	14-17	74-62
6	2	Lipscomb	20-12	vs.	3	North Florida	14-18	85-91
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
7	1	Florida Gulf Coast	25-7	vs.	3	North Florida	15-18	77-61
Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament–Pittsburgh (Duquense)
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	12	Massachusetts	14-17	vs.	13	St. Joseph’s	11-19	6:00 PM	ASN
2	11	St. Louis	11-20	vs.	14	Duquesne	10-21	8:30 PM	ASN
2nd Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	8	LaSalle	15-14	vs.	9	Davidson	15-14	12:00 PM	NBCSN
4	5	St. Bonaventure	19-11	vs.		Game 1 winner		2:30 PM	NBCSN
5	7	George Mason		vs.	10	Fordham		6:00 PM	NBCSN
6	6	George Washington	18-13	vs.		Game 2 winner		8:30 PM	NBCSN
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	1	Dayton	24-6	vs.		Game 3 winner		12:00 PM	NBCSN
8	4	Rhode Island	21-9	vs.		Game 4 winner		2:30 PM	NBCSN
9	2	VCU	24-7	vs.		Game 5 winner		6:00 PM	NBCSN
10	3	Richmond	19-11	vs.		Game 6 winner		8:30 PM	NBCSN
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		1:00 PM	CBSSN
12		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		3:30 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
13		Game 11 winner		vs.		Game 12 winner		12:30 PM	CBS
Big 12 Conference Tournament–Kansas City
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	TCU	17-14	vs.	9	Oklahoma	11-19	7:00 PM	ESPNU
2	7	Texas Tech	18-13	vs.	10	Texas	10-21	9:00 PM	ESPNU
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	4	Iowa St.	20-10	vs.	5	Oklahoma St.	20-11	12:30 PM	ESPN2
4	1	Kansas	28-3	vs.		Game 1 winner		2:30 PM	ESPN2
5	2	West Virginia	24-7	vs.		Game 2 winner		7:00 PM	ESPNU
6	3	Baylor	25-6	vs.	6	Kansas St.	19-12	9:00 PM	ESPNU
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 3 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN or 2
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		9:00 P<	ESPN or 2
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN
Big East Conference Tournament–New York City
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	St. John’s	13-18	vs.	9	Georgetown	14-17	7:00 PM	FS1
2	7	Xavier	19-12	vs.	10	DePaul	9-21	9:30 PM	FS1
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	Villanova	28-3	vs.				12:00 PM	FS1
4	4	Marquette	19-11	vs.	5	Seton Hall	20-10	2:30 PM	FS1
5	2	Butler	23-7	vs.				7:00 PM	FS1
6	3	Providence	20-11	vs.	6	Creighton	23-8	9:30 PM	FS1
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 1 winner		vs.		Game 2 winner		6:30 PM	FS1
8		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		9:00 PM	FS1
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		5:30 PM	Fox
Big Sky Conference Tournament–Reno, NV
1st Round, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Portland St.	14-15	vs.	9	Northern Arizona	9-22	5:35 PM	Watch Big Sky
2	7	Sacramento St.	12-17	vs.	10	Idaho St.	5-25	8:35 PM	Watch Big Sky
3	6	Montana St.	16-15	vs.	11	Southern Utah	5-26	11:05 PM	Watch Big Sky
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	1	North Dakota	19-9	vs.		Game 1 winner		3:05 PM	Watch Big Sky
5	4	Idaho	17-12	vs.	5	Montana	16-15	5:35 PM	Watch Big Sky
6	2	Eastern Washington	21-10	vs.		Game 2 winner		8:35 PM	Watch Big Sky
7	3	Weber St.	17-12	vs.		Game 3 winner		11:05 PM	Watch Big Sky
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 5 winner		8:35 PM	Watch Big Sky
9		Game 6 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		11:05 PM	Watch Big Sky
Championship Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
10		Game 8 winner		vs.		Game 9 winner		8:30 PM	ESPNU
Big South Conference Tournament—Winthrop
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Campbell	14-16	vs.	10	Presbyterian	5-24	81-62
2	8	Charleston Southern	11-18	vs.	9	Longwood	6-23	79-74
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	2	UNC-Asheville	23-8	vs.	7	Campbell	15-16	79-81
4	3	Liberty	19-12	vs.	6	Radford	13-17	52-56
5	1	Winthrop	23-6	vs.	8	Charleston Southern	12-18	92-78
6	4	Gardner-Webb	18-13	vs.	5	High Point	15-15	91-55
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
7	6	Radford	14-17	vs.	7	Campbell	16-16	50-66
8	1	Winthrop	24-6	vs.	4	Gardner-Webb	19-13	80-77 ot
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
9	1	Winthrop	25-6	vs.	7	Campbell	17-16	76-59
Big Ten Conference Tournament–Washington, DC
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	12	Nebraska	12-18	vs.	13	Penn St.	14-17	4:30 PM	ESPN
2	11	Ohio St.	17-14	vs.	14	Rutgers	14-17	7:00 PM	BTN
2nd Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	8	Michigan	20-11	vs.	9	Illinois	18-13	12:00 PM	BTN
4	5	Michigan St.	18-13	vs.		Game 1 winner		2:20 PM	BTN
5	7	Iowa	18-13	vs.	10	Indiana	17-14	6:30 PM	ESPN2
6	6	Northwestern	21-10	vs.		Game 2 winner		8:50 PM	ESPN2
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	1	Purdue	25-6	vs.		Game 3 winner		12:00 PM	ESPN
8	4	Minnesota	23-8	vs.		Game 4 winner		2:20 PM	ESPN
9	2	Wisconsin	23-8	vs.		Game 5 winner		6:30 PM	BTN
10	3	Maryland	24-7	vs.		Game 6 winner		8:50 PM	BTN
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		1:00 PM	CBS
12		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		3:30 PM	CBS
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
13		Game 11 winner		vs.		Game 12 winner		3:00 PM	CBS
Big West Conference Tournament–Anaheim
Quarterfinal Round–Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	2	UC-Davis	19-12	vs.	7	Cal Poly	11-19	3:00 PM	FSW
2	3	Cal St. Fullerton	16-13	vs.	6	Cal St. Northridge	11-18	5:30 PM	FSW
3	1	UC-Irvine	19-13	vs.	8	UC-Riverside	7-20	9:00 PM	Prime
4	4	Long Beach St.	14-18	vs.	5	Hawaii	14-15	11:30 PM	Prime
Semifinal Round–Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Game 1 winner		vs.		Game 2 winner		9:30 PM	ESPN3
6		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		12:00 AM	ESPN3
Championship Game–Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		11:30 PM	ESPN2
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament–Charleston, SC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Hofstra	15-16	vs.	9	Delaware	12-19	76-81
2	7	James Madison	9-22	vs.	10	Drexel	9-22	80-70
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	1	UNC-Wilmington	26-5	vs.	9	Delaware	13-19	91-82
4	4	William & Mary	16-13	vs.	5	Elon	18-13	71-66
5	2	College of Charleston	23-8	vs.	7	James Madison	10-22	67-62
6	3	Towson St.	19-12	vs.	6	Northeastern	15-15	82-54
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
7	1	UNC-Wilmington	27-5	vs.	4	William & Mary	17-13	105-94
8	2	College of Charleston	24-8	vs.	6	Northeastern	16-15	67-59
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9	1	UNC-Wilmington	28-5	vs.	2	College of Charleston	25-8	7:00 PM	CBSSN
Conference USA Tournament–Birmingham, AL
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Western Kentucky	15-16	vs.	9	UTSA	13-18	12:30 PM	Camp. Insiders
2	5	Rice	21-10	vs.	12	Southern Miss.	9-21	3:00 PM	Camp. Insiders
3	7	UAB	16-15	vs.	10	Charlotte	13-16	6:30 PM	Camp. Insiders
4	6	Marshall	17-14	vs.	11	Florida Atlantic	10-19	9:00 PM	Camp. Insiders
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Middle Tennessee	27-4	vs.		Game 1 winner		12:30 PM	ASN
6	4	UTEP	14-16	vs.		Game 2 winner		3:00 PM	ASN
7	2	Louisiana Tech	22-9	vs.		Game 3 winner		6:30 PM	ASN
8	3	Old Dominion	19-11	vs.		Game 4 winner		9:00 PM	ASN
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		12:30 PM	CBSSN
10		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		3:00 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		8:30 PM	CBSSN
Horizon League Tournament (Motor City Madness)–Detroit
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Detroit Mercy	8-22	vs.	10	Milwaukee	8-23	60-85
2	8	Cleveland St.	9-21	vs.	9	Youngstown St.	11-20	69-84
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	1	Oakland	24-7	vs.	9	Youngstown St.	12-20	80-81
4	2	Valparaiso	24-7	vs.	10	MIlwaukee	9-23	41-43
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
5	3	Green Bay	18-12	vs.	6	Illinois-Chicago	14-17	70-79
6	4	Northern Kentucky	21-10	vs.	5	Wright St.	20-11	82-77
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Northern Kentucky	22-10	vs.	9	Youngstown St.	13-20	7:00 PM	ESPNU
8		Illinois-Chicago	15-17	vs.	10	Milwaukee	10-23	9:30 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN
Ivy League Tournament–Philadelphia
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	Princeton	21-6	vs.	4	Penn	13-14	1:30 PM	ESPNU
2	2	Harvard	18-9	vs.	3	Yale	17-10	4:00 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3		Game 1 winner		vs.		Game 2 winner		12:00 PM	ESPN2
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament at Albany (Siena)
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Quinnipiac	10-20	vs.	9	Niagara	9-22	69-88
2	7	Canisius	17-14	vs.	10	Marist	8-23	77-73
3	6	Rider	17-14	vs.	11	Manhattan	10-21	69-68
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
4	1	Mounmouth	26-5	vs.	9	Niagara	10-22	84-59
5	2	St. Peter’s	18-12	vs.	7	Canisius	18-14	61-58
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
6	3	Iona	19-12	vs.	6	Rider	18-14	88-70
7	4	Siena	15-16	vs.	5	Fairfield	16-13	78-66
Semifinal Round–Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
8	1	Monmouth	27-5	vs.	4	Siena	16-16	85-89
9	2	St. Peter’s	19-12	vs.	3	Iona	20-12	65-73
Championship Game–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
10	3	Iona	21-12	vs.	4	Siena	17-16	9:00 PM	ESPN2
Mid-American Conference Tournament (1st Round at Higher Seed, All Others at Cleveland)
1st Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Eastern Michigan	15-16	vs.	9	Northern Illinois	15-16	7:00 PM	ESPN
2	5	Western Michigan	15-15	vs.	12	Miami (O)	11-20	7:30 PM	ESPN
3	7	Toledo	16-15	vs.	10	Bowling Green	13-18	8:00 PM	ESPN
4	6	Kent St.	18-13	vs.	11	Central Michigan	16-15	7:00 PM	None
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Akron	24-7	vs.		Game 1 winner		12:00 PM	ESPN3
6	4	Ball St.	20-11	vs.		Game 2 winner		2:30 PM	ESPN3
7	2	Ohio U	19-10	vs.		Game 3 winner		6:30 PM	ESPN3
8	3	Buffalo	17-14	vs.		Game 4 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		5:30 PM	CBSSN
10		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		8:00 PM	CBSSN
Mideast Athletic Conference Tournament at Norfolk, VA (Norfolk St.)
1st Round, Day 1–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	5	Maryland-Eastern Shore	12-19	vs.	12	N. Carolina A&T	3-28	5:00 PM	ESPN3
2	6	Coppin St.	8-23	vs.	11	Howard	8-23	7:00 PM	ESPN3
1st Round, Day 2–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	8	Delaware St.	10-21	vs.	9	Bethune-Cookman	9-21	4:00 PM	ESPN3
4	7	South Carolina St.	10-19	vs.	10	Florida A&M	7-22	6:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	UNC-Central	22-8	vs.		Game 3 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Norfolk St.	15-15	vs.		Game 4 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	3	Morgan St.	14-15	vs.		Game 2 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	4	Hampton	14-15	vs.		Game 1 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
10		Game 6 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN2
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (Arch Madness) at St. Louis
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Evansville	15-16	vs.	9	Indiana St.	11-19	83-72
2	7	Bradley	12-19	vs.	10	Drake	7-23	67-58
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	1	Illinois St.	25-5	vs.	8	Evansville	16-16	80-69
4	4	Southern Illinois	16-15	vs.	5	Loyola (Chi.)	18-13	55-50
5	2	Wichita St.	27-4	vs.	7	Bradley	13-19	82-56
6	3	Northern Iowa	14-15	vs.	6	Missouri St.	16-15	64-70
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
7	1	Illinois St.	26-5	vs.	4	Southern Illinois	17-15	63-50
8	2	Wichita St.	28-4	vs.	6	Missouri St.	17-15	78-63
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
9	1	Illinois St.	27-5	vs.	2	Wichita St.	29-4	51-71
Mountain West Conference Tournament–Las Vegas (UNLV)
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Utah St.		vs.	9	San Jose St.		2:00 PM	MWN
2	7	Wyoming		vs.	10	Air Force		4:30 PM	MWN
3	6	San Diego St.		vs.	11	UNLV		7:00 PM	MWN
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	1	Nevada	25-6	vs.		Game 1 winner		3:00 PM	CBSSN
5	4	Fresno St.	19-11	vs.	5	New Mexico	17-13	5:30 PM	CBSSN
6	2	Colorado St.	21-10	vs.		Game 2 winner		9:00 PM	CBSSN
7	3	Boise St.	19-10	vs.		Game 3 winner		11:30 PM	CBSSN
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 5 winner		10:00 PM	CBSSN
9		Game 6 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		12:30 AM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
10		Game 8 winner		vs.		Game 9 winner		6:00 PM	CBS
Northeast Conference Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Mount St. Mary’s	16-15	vs.	8	Sacred Heart	13-18	76-73
2	2	Long Island	20-11	vs.	7	Robert Morris	13-18	68-69
3	3	Wagner	15-13	vs.	6	Fairleigh-Dickinson	11-18	72-70
4	4	St. Francis (PA)	14-15	vs.	5	Bryant	12-19	100-78
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
5	3	Wagner	16-13	vs.	4	St. Francis (PA)	15-15	70-71
6	1	Mount St. Mary’s	17-15	vs.	7	Robert Morris	14-18	75-66
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	1	Mount St. Mary’s	18-15		4	St. Francis (PA)	16-15	11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament at Nashville
1st Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	5	Southeast Missouri	14-17	vs.	8	Tennessee St.	17-12	78-75 ot
2	6	Tennessee Tech	12-19	vs.	7	Murray St.	14-16	84-85 2ot
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	4	Jacksonville St.	17-14	vs.	5	Southeast Missouri	15-17	74-51
4	3	Morehead St.	14-15	vs.	7	Murray St.	15-16	69-75
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
5	1	Belmont	22-5	vs.	4	Jacksonville St.	18-14	59-65
6	2	UT-Martin	20-11	vs.	7	Murray St.	16-16	73-67
Championship Game, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
7	2	UT-Martin	21-11	vs.	4	Jacksonville St.	19-14	55-66
Pac-12 Conference Tournament–Las Vegas
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Arizona St.	14-17	vs.	9	Stanford	14-16	3:00 PM	P12 Net.
2	5	California	19-11	vs.	12	Oregon St.	5-26	5:30 PM	P12 Net.
3	7	Colorado	18-13	vs.	10	Washington St.	13-17	9:00 PM	P12 Net.
4	6	USC	23-8	vs.	11	Washington	9-21	11:30 PM	P12 Net.
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Oregon	27-4	vs.		Game 1 winner		3:00 PM	P12 Net.
6	4	Utah	20-10	vs.		Game 2 winner		5:30 PM	P12 Net.
7	2	Arizona	27-4	vs.		Game 3 winner		9:00 PM	P12 Net.
8	3	UCLA	28-3	vs.		Game 4 winner		11:30 PM	ESPN
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		9:00 PM	P12 Net.
10		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		11:30 PM	ESPN
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		11:00 PM	ESPN
Patriot League Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Loyola (MD.)	14-15	vs.	10	Lafayette	9-20	67-64
2	8	Army	12-18	vs.	9	American	8-21	74-58
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	2	Boston U	23-8	vs.	7	Loyola (MD.)	15-15	64-60
4	3	Lehigh	19-12	vs.	6	Colgate	10-21	77-72
5	1	Bucknell	23-6	vs.	8	Army	13-18	78-62
6	4	Navy	18-13	vs.	5	Holy Cross	15-16	49-42
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
7	2	Boston U	24-8	vs.	3	Lehigh	20-12	88-91 ot
8	1	Bucknell	24-6	vs.	4	Navy	19-13	70-65
Championship Game, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9	1	Bucknell	25-6	vs.	3	Lehigh	21-12	7:30 PM	CBSSN
Southeastern Conference Tournament–Nashville
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	12	Mississippi St.	15-15	vs.	13	LSU	10-20	7:00 PM	SECN
2	11	Auburn	18-13	vs.	14	MIssouri	7-23	9:00 PM	SECN
2nd Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	8	Georgia	18-13	vs.	9	Tennessee	16-15	1:00 PM	SECN
4	5	Alabama	17-13	vs.		Game 1 winner		3:20 PM	SECN
5	7	Vanderbilt	17-14	vs.	10	Texas A&M	16-14	7:00 PM	SECN
6	6	Ole Miss	19-12	vs.		Game 2 winner		9:20 PM	SECN
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	1	Kentucky	26-5	vs.		Game 3 winner		1:00 PM	SECN
8	4	South Carolina	22-9	vs.		Game 4 winner		3:20 PM	SECN
9	2	Florida	24-7	vs.		Game 5 winner		7:00 PM	SECN
10	3	Arkansas	23-8	vs.		Game 6 winner		9:20 PM	SECN
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN
12		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		3:20 PM	ESPN
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
13		Game 11 winner		vs.		Game 12 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN
Southern Conference Tournament–Asheville, NC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Western Carolina	9-22	vs.	9	The Citadel	11-20	72-78
2	7	Samford	17-14	vs.	10	VMI	6-23	79-61
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	1	UNC-Greensboro	23-8	vs.	9	The Citadel	12-20	76-67
4	4	Chattanooga	19-11	vs.	5	Wofford	15-16	67-79
5	2	Furman	21-10	vs.	7	Samford	18-14	63-67
6	3	East Tennessee St.	24-7	vs.	6	Mercer	15-16	73-66
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
7	1	UNC-Greensboro	24-8	vs.	5	Wofford	16-16	77-73
8	3	East Tennessee St.	25-7	vs.	7	Samford	19-14	81-72
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9	1	UNC-Greensboro	25-8	vs.	3	East Tennessee St.	26-7	7:00 PM	ESPN2
Southland Conference Tournament–Katy, TX (Greater Houston area)
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	5	Sam Houston St.	19-12	vs.	8	Central Arkansas	8-23	6:00 PM	ESPN3
2	6	Lamar	18-13	vs.	7	Southeastern Louisiana	16-15	8:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	4	Houston Baptist	17-12	vs.		Game 1 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
4	3	Stephen F. Austin	17-13	vs.		Game 2 winner		8:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	New Orleans	18-11	vs.		Game 3 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Texas A&M-CC	19-10	vs.		Game 4 winner		8:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		9:30 PM	ESPN2
Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament–1st round at higher seed, Semis and Finals at Houston
Quarterfinal Round–Tuesday, March 7 at higher seed
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	Texas Southern	20-11	vs.	8	Alabama St.	8-22	8:30 PM	None
2	4	Prairie View A&M	13-19	vs.	5	Grambling	15-16	9:00 PM	None
3	2	Alcorn St. *	16-13	vs.	7	Mississippi Valley	7-24	7:00 PM	None
4	3	Southern	14-17	vs.	6	Jackson St.	14-17	8:30 PM	None
Semifinal Round–Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Game 1 winner		vs.		Game 2 winner		3:30 PM	None
6		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		9:30 PM	None
Championship Game–Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		6:30 PM	ESPNU
*Alcorn St. is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores. If the Braves win the tourney, Texas Sou. wins the bid.
Summit League Tournament–Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	South Dakota	21-10		8	Western Illinois	8-19	78-69 ot
2	2	North Dakota St.	19-10		7	IUPUI	13-17	57-76
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	4	South Dakota St.	15-16		5	Denver	16-13	83-73
4	3	Omaha	16-13		6	Fort Wayne	19-11	84-80
Semifinal Round–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	South Dakota	22-10		4	South Dakota St.	16-16	7:00 PM	ESPN3
6	7	IUPUI	14-17		3	Omaha	17-13	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2
Sun Belt Conference Tournament–New Orleans
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Coastal Carolina	15-16	vs.	9	South Alabama	14-17	1:30 PM	ESPN3
2	5	Arkansas St.	20-11	vs.	12	Louisiana-Monroe	8-23	3:00 PM	ESPN3
3	7	Louisiana-Lafayette	20-11	vs.	10	Arkansas-Little Rock	15-16	6:00 PM	ESPN3
4	6	Troy	18-14	vs.	11	Appalachian St.	9-20	8:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	UT-Arlington	24-7	vs.		Game 1 winner		1:30 PM	ESPN3
6	4	Texas St.	18-12	vs.		Game 2 winner		3:00 PM	ESPN3
7	2	Georgia St.	19-11	vs.		Game 3 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	3	Georgia Southern	18-13	vs.		Game 4 winner		8:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		12:30 PM	ESPN3
10		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		3:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		2:00 PM	ESPN2
West Coast Conference Tournament at Las Vegas
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Pepperdine	9-21	vs.	9	Pacific	10-21	84-89
2	7	San Diego	13-17	vs.	10	Portland	10-21	55-60
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	3	BYU	21-10	vs.	6	Loyola Marymount	15-14	89-81
4	4	Santa Clara	16-15	vs.	5	San Francisco	20-11	76-69
5	1	Gonzaga	29-1	vs.	9	Pacific	11-21	82-50
6	2	Saint Mary’s	26-3	vs.	10	Portland	11-21	81-58
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	3	BYU	22-10	vs.	2	Saint Mary’s	27-3	9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
8	1	Gonzaga	30-1	vs.	4	Santa Clara	17-15	9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN
Western Athletic Conference Tournament–Las Vegas
Quarterfinal Round–Thursday, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	4	Utah Valley	14-15	vs.	5	Seattle	13-16	5:00 PM	WAC Digital
2	2	New Mexico St.	25-5	vs.	7	Chicago St.	6-25	7:30 PM	WAC Digital
3	3	Missouri-KC	16-15	vs.	6	UT Rio Grande Valley	10-21	10:00 PM	WAC Digital
Semifinal Round–Friday, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	1	Cal State Bakersfield	21-8	vs.		Game 1 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN3
5		Game 2 winner		vs.		Game 3 winner		11:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game–Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
6		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 5 winner		11:00 PM	ESPNU

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For March 4-5, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, March 4, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Virginia	Pittsburgh	13	15	13
Louisville	Notre Dame	10	9	12
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	10	8	9
Syracuse	Georgia Tech	7	10	6
Clemson	Boston College	14	13	10
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest	2	3	2
North Carolina	Duke	9	7	7
SMU	Memphis	15	16	16
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	5	4	5
Oklahoma	TCU	2	2	-1
Texas	Baylor	-4	-4	-6
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	2	-1	-1
Georgetown	Villanova	-8	-9	-5
St. John’s	Providence	1	-1	-1
DePaul	Xavier	-6	-7	-9
Butler	Seton Hall	10	10	10
Marquette	Creighton	3	3	1
Rutgers	Illinois	-3	-3	-5
Ohio St.	Indiana	2	1	1
Maryland	Michigan St.	4	3	1
Colorado	California	2	-1	-3
Utah	Stanford	10	10	9
Arizona St.	Arizona	-9	-10	-11
Oregon St.	Oregon	-19	-20	-17
USC	Washington	12	12	9
UCLA	Washington St.	24	25	18
Texas A&M	Kentucky	-9	-7	-4
Tennessee	Alabama	4	3	4
Arkansas	Georgia	5	6	2
Vanderbilt	Florida	-6	-7	-3
Auburn	Missouri	10	9	7
LSU	Mississippi St.	-1	-1	1
Ole Miss	South Carolina	-2	-1	-3

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, March 5, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Connecticut	Cincinnati	-6	-7	-4
Iowa	Penn St.	6	5	5
Northwestern	Purdue	1	-4	-4
Wisconsin	Minnesota	5	9	2
Nebraska	Michigan	-4	-7	-1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Villanova
2. Gonzaga
3. North Carolina
4. Kansas
5. Kentucky
6. UCLA
7. Wichita St.
8. Purdue
9. Florida
10. West Virginia
11. Baylor
12. Duke
13. Oregon
14. Louisville
15. Saint Mary’s
16. SMU
17. Florida St.
18. Cincinnati
19. Butler
20. Virginia
21. Iowa St.
22. Oklahoma St.
23. Wisconsin
24. Arizona
25. Creighton

ACC

1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Florida St.
5. Virginia
6. Notre Dame
7. Wake Forest
8. Miami (Fla.)
9. Virginia Tech
10. Syracuse
11. Clemson
12. Georgia Tech
13. Pittsburgh
14. North Carolina St.
15. Boston College

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Iowa St.
5. Oklahoma St.
6. Texas Tech (tie)
7. Kansas St. (tie)
8. TCU
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Butler
3. Creighton
4. Marquette
5. Providence
6. Seton Hall
7. Xavier
8. Georgetown
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Purdue
2. Wisconsin
3. Maryland
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan St.
8. Iowa
9. Illinois
10. Indiana
11. Ohio St.
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Pac-12

1. Oregon
2. UCLA
3. Arizona
4. California
5. USC
6. Utah
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Georgia
6. Alabama
7. Vanderbilt
8. Ole Miss
9. Texas A&M
10. Tennessee
11. Auburn
12. Mississippi St.
13. Missouri
14. LSU

Current Bubble Teams

Top 10 Bubble Teams (IN THE DANCE)

1. VCU
2. Providence
3. Seton Hall
4. Marquette
5. Xavier
6. USC
7. Syracuse
8. Wake Forest 
9. Illinois
10. Illinois St.

Top Bubble Teams (OUT OF THE FIELD & NIT-BOUND)

1. California
2. Kansas St.
3. Rhode Island
4. Georgia
5. Houston
6. Georgia Tech
7. Vanderbilt
8. TCU
9. Utah
10. Iowa

Conference Tournament Update

America East Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Vermont	26-5	vs.	8	Maine	7-24	86-41
2	2	Stony Brook	17-12	vs.	7	Binghamton	12-19	70-60
3	3	Albany	19-12	vs.	6	Hartford	9-22	100-71
4	4	New Hampshire	19-11	vs.	5	Md.-Baltimore Co.	18-11	74-65
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Vermont	27-5	vs.	4	New Hampshire	20-11	7:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Stony Brook	18-12	vs.	3	Albany	20-12	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Monday, February 27
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Florida Gulf Coast	23-7	vs.	8	Stetson	11-20	87-57
2	2	Lipscomb	19-12	vs.	7	NJIT	11-19	97-66
3	3	North Florida	13-18	vs.	6	Jacksonville	17-14	77-74
4	4	USC-Upstate	17-14	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	13-17	78-80
Semifinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
5	1	Florida Gulf Coast	24-7	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	14-17	74-62
6	2	Lipscomb	20-12	vs.	3	North Florida	14-18	85-91
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	1	Florida Gulf Coast	25-7	vs.	3	North Florida	15-18	3:00 PM	ESPN
Big South Conference Tournament–1st Round & Championship at Higher Seed, Middle 2 Rounds at #1 Winthrop
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Campbell	14-16	vs.	10	Presbyterian	5-24	81-62
2	8	Charleston Southern	11-18	vs.	9	Longwood	6-23	79-74
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	2	UNC-Asheville	23-8	vs.	7	Campbell	15-16	79-81
4	3	Liberty	19-12	vs.	6	Radford	13-17	52-56
5	1	Winthrop	23-6	vs.	8	Charleston Southern	12-18	92-78
6	4	Gardner-Webb	18-13	vs.	5	High Point	15-15	91-55
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	6	Radford	14-17	vs.	7	Campbell	16-16	6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	1	Winthrop	24-6	vs.	4	Gardner-Webb	19-13	8:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament–Charleston, SC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Hofstra	15-16	vs.	9	Delaware	12-19	6:00 PM	CAA.tv
2	7	James Madison	9-22	vs.	10	Drexel	9-22	8:30 PM	CAA.tv
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	UNC-Wilmington	26-5	vs.				12:00 PM	Comcast SN
4	4	William & Mary	16-13	vs.	5	Elon	18-13	2:30 PM	Comcast SN
5	2	College of Charleston	23-8	vs.				6:00 PM	Comcast SN
6	3	Towson St.	19-12	vs.	6	Northeastern	15-15	8:30 PM	Comcast SN
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		2:00 PM	Comcast SN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		4:30 PM	Comcast SN
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	CBSSN
Horizon League Tournament (Motor City Madness)–Detroit
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	7	Detroit Mercy	8-22	vs.	10	Milwaukee	8-23	5:30 PM	ESPN3
2	8	Cleveland St.	9-21	vs.	9	Youngstown St.	11-20	8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	Oakland	24-7	vs.		Game 2 winner		5:30 PM	ESPN3
4	2	Valparaiso	24-7	vs.		Game 1 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	3	Green Bay	18-12	vs.	6	Illinois-Chicago	14-17	5:00 PM	ESPN3
6	4	Northern Kentucky	21-10	vs.	5	Wright St.	20-11	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:00 PM	ESPNU
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 5 winner		9:30 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament at Albany (Siena)
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Quinnipiac	10-20	vs.	9	Niagara	9-22	69-88
2	7	Canisius	17-14	vs.	10	Marist	8-23	77-73
3	6	Rider	17-14	vs.	11	Manhattan	10-21	69-68
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	1	Mounmouth	26-5	vs.	9	Niagara	10-22	7:00 PM	ESPN3
5	2	St. Peter’s	18-12	vs.	7	Canisius	18-14	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
6	3	Iona	19-12	vs.	6	Rider	18-14	7:00 PM	ESPN3
7	4	Siena	15-16	vs.	5	Fairfield	16-13	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round–Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		4:30 PM	ESPN3
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
10		Game 8 winner		vs.		Game 9 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2
Mideast Athletic Conference Tournament at Norfolk, VA (Norfolk St.)
1st Round, Day 1–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	5	Maryland-Eastern Shore	12-19	vs.	12	N. Carolina A&T	3-28	5:00 PM	ESPN3
2	6	Coppin St.	8-23	vs.	11	Howard	8-23	7:00 PM	ESPN3
1st Round, Day 2–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	8	Delaware St.	10-21	vs.	9	Bethune-Cookman	9-21	4:00 PM	ESPN3
4	7	South Carolina St.	10-19	vs.	10	Florida A&M	7-22	6:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round. Day 1, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	UNC-Central	22-8	vs.		Game 3 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Norfolk St.	15-15	vs.		Game 4 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round. Day 2, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	3	Morgan St.	14-15	vs.		Game 2 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	4	Hampton	14-15	vs.		Game 1 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
10		Game 6 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN2
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (Arch Madness) at St. Louis
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Evansville	15-16	vs.	9	Indiana St.	11-19	83-72
2	7	Bradley	12-19	vs.	10	Drake	7-23	67-58
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	Illinois St.	25-5	vs.	8	Evansville	16-16	1:00 PM	MVC TV
4	4	Southern Illinois	16-15	vs.	5	Loyola (Chi.)	18-13	3:30 PM	MVC TV
5	2	Wichita St.	27-4	vs.	7	Bradley	13-19	7:00 PM	MVC TV
6	3	Northern Iowa	14-15	vs.	6	Missouri St.	16-15	9:30 PM	MVC TV
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		3:30 PM	CBSSN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		6:00 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		2:00 PM	CBS
Northeast Conference Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Mount St. Mary’s	16-15	vs.	8	Sacred Heart	13-18	76-73
2	2	Long Island	20-11	vs.	7	Robert Morris	13-18	68-69
3	3	Wagner	15-13	vs.	6	Fairleigh-Dickinson	11-18	72-70
4	4	St. Francis (PA)	14-15	vs.	5	Bryant	12-19	100-78
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Mount St. Mary’s	17-15	vs.	7	Robert Morris	14-18	12 or 2 PM	MSG/FCS
6	3	Wagner	16-13	vs.	4	St. Francis (PA)	15-15	12 or 2 PM	MSG/FCS
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament at Nashville
1st Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	5	Southeast Missouri	14-17	vs.	8	Tennessee St.	17-12	78-75 ot
2	6	Tennessee Tech	12-19	vs.	7	Murray St.	14-16	84-85 2ot
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	4	Jacksonville St.	17-14	vs.	5	Southeast Missouri	15-17	74-51
4	3	Morehead St.	14-15	vs.	7	Murray St.	15-16	69-75
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Belmont	22-5	vs.	4	Jacksonville St.	18-14	7:30 PM	ESPNU
6	2	UT-Martin	20-11	vs.	7	Murray St.	16-16	10:00 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN2
Patriot League Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Loyola (MD.)	14-15	vs.	10	Lafayette	9-20	67-64
2	8	Army	12-18	vs.	9	American	8-21	74-58
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	2	Boston U	23-8	vs.	7	Loyola (MD.)	15-15	64-60
4	3	Lehigh	19-12	vs.	6	Colgate	10-21	77-72
5	1	Bucknell	23-6	vs.	8	Army	13-18	78-62
6	4	Navy	18-13	vs.	5	Holy Cross	15-16	49-42
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	2	Boston U	24-8	vs.	3	Lehigh	20-12	12 or 2 PM	CBSSN
8	1	Bucknell	24-6	vs.	4	Navy	19-13	12 or 2 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:30 PM	CBSSN
Southern Conference Tournament–Asheville, NC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Western Carolina	9-22	vs.	9	The Citadel	11-20	5:00 PM	ESPN3
2	7	Samford	17-14	vs.	10	VMI	6-23	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	UNC-Greensboro	23-8	vs.		Game 1 winner		12:00 PM	ESPN3
4	4	Chattanooga	19-11	vs.	5	Wofford	15-16	2:30 PM	ESPN3
5	2	Furman	21-10	vs.		Game 2 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
6	3	East Tennessee St.	24-7	vs.	6	Mercer	15-16	8:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		5:00 PM	ESPN3
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN2
Summit League Tournament–Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	South Dakota	21-10		8	Western Illinois	8-19	7:00 PM	ESPN3
2	2	North Dakota St.	19-10		7	IUPUI	13-17	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	4	South Dakota St.	15-16		5	Denver	16-13	7:00 PM	ESPN3
4	3	Omaha	16-13		6	Fort Wayne	19-11	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Game 1 winner				Game 3 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
6		Game 2 winner				Game 4 winner		9:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2
West Coast Conference Tournament at Las Vegas
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Pepperdine	9-21	vs.	9	Pacific	10-21	BYUtv	9:00 PM
2	7	San Diego	13-17	vs.	10	Portland	10-21	BYUtv	11:00 PM
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	3	BYU	21-10	vs.	6	Loyola Marymount	15-14	4:00 PM	BYUtv
4	4	Santa Clara	16-15	vs.	5	San Francisco	20-11	6:00 PM	BYUtv
5	1	Gonzaga	29-1	vs.		Game 1 winner		10:00 PM	ESPN2
6	2	Saint Mary’s	26-3	vs.		Game 2 winner		12:00 AM	ESPN2
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN

 

 

The Pirate Ratings Bracketology Gurus Report For February 27, 2017

Gonzaga’s Loss–Good or Bad

Minutes after Gonzaga lost their home finale Saturday night, we began hearing the so-called experts talk about how a loss might help the Bulldogs rather than keep the pressure on them to stay undefeated.  We have heard this statement many times in the past, and we believe it is hogwash.  A loss never really helps a team, even if coaches and others say it may help focus attention and force players to play harder.

The team that goes 29-0 before losing is not one that needs help focusing or one that can find a way to improve on the loss.  As a matter of fact, we believe this loss hurts Gonzaga more than what it looks like on face value.  Their players lost a lot of confidence, and any self-doubt can create weaker play.  Look at it in baseball.  When a player has to think about facing Aroldis Chapman, or before him Randy Johnson, Rob Dibble, or Sandy Koufax, the thought of facing a pitcher than they cannot possibly hit oftentimes leads to the batter not being able to hit these stars.  The all-time hits leader, Pete Rose, didn’t believe he could hit Koufax’s curve ball, and he didn’t.  He hit below .175 against him.

In the basketball world, we see a close correlation between Gonzaga and the 1977 San Francisco Dons.  That USF team had four stars that would matriculate to the NBA, including future Chicago Bulls’ center Bill Cartwright, who had been considered the nation’s top high school prospect when he signed with the Dons.

The 1977 USF team played in the West Coast Athletic Conference, the predecessor of today’s West Coast Conference, of which Gonzaga is a member (as is USF).  The Dons were the odds-on favorite to win the WCAC title, but nobody expected USF to do what they did that year.  Starting just outside the top 10, USF began winning game after game.  Their early schedule featured several power conference teams, including eventual SEC champion Tennessee and WAC Champion Utah.  The Dons stayed undefeated throughout November and December, and with a win over St. John’s and a second win over Houston, USF moved to the top of the polls in early January.  There was no real competition in conference play as the Dons won the league by five games.  With a 29-0 record and a scoring margin near 20 points per game, USF closed out the regular season with a road game against a good but not great Notre Dame team.

In the second half, the Irish began to wear down the USF stars, and they were able to neutralize the Dons’ best factor–their rebounding ability.  Notre Dame went on a run and knocked USF out of the unbeaten ranks just before NCAA Tournament play began.  USF fell to number three in the nation behind Michigan and UCLA, but the experts of the day said that the loss would help USF be able to focus and recover.  It wasn’t to be.  In their very first tournament game, USF ran up against the Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV, and Coach Jerry Tarkanian was about to take his team to its first Final Four.  UNLV ran out to a quick double-digit lead and cruised to a 121-95 victory to end USF’s year at 29-2.

We are not saying that Gonzaga will lose its first tournament game, and remember that when USF lost to UNLV, there were just 32 Tournament teams.  What we are saying is that Gonzaga’s chances of making the Final 4 are now less by several percentage points than it was prior to Saturday.  In fact, we are willing to state that we do not believe the Bulldogs will make it to the Elite 8 this year, because their confidence level has dropped.  They may not even win the WCC Tournament.  Saint Mary’s might advance further in the Dance.  That’s how much we believe this loss hurt the Zags.

 

Our Weekly Look at the Conferences

To many basketball fans, the next five weeks equates to summer vacation. Conference tournament action commences today with the opening round of the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament tipping off in Fort Myers, Florida, Nashville, Spartanburg, South Carolina, and Jacksonville, as the four higher seeded teams host the four lower seeded teams.

Starting today, our Bracketology Report merges with the Conference Tournament Coverage, so you will get a bit of both. In total 10 different leagues have their tournament brackets in place, so instead of showing you the records of the top teams in those leagues, we will show you the tournament schedules along with a brief look at who is hot, who is not, and who we think might win.
Our Bracketology Gurus have sent their selections to us this week, and many of them plan to update every time their bracket changes in the last two weeks before Selection Sunday.

ONE BID CONFERENCES
America East

America East Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	Vermont	26-5	vs.	8	Maine	7-24	7:00 PM	ESPN3
2	2	Stony Brook	17-12	vs.	7	Binghamton	12-19	7:00 PM	ESPN3
3	3	Albany	19-12	vs.	6	Hartford	9-22	7:30 PM	ESPN3
4	4	New Hampshire	19-11	vs.	5	Md.-Baltimore Co.	18-11	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Highest Remaining Seed		vs.		Lowest Remaining Seed		7:00 PM	ESPN3
6		2nd Highest Remaining Seed		vs.		2nd Lowest Remaining Seed		7:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs

Vermont finished the regular season with a perfect 16-0 record in the league, and there is only one other team remaining that has an undefeated conference record (Princeton is 12-0 in the Ivy League with two games remaining). So, the Catamounts must be considered prohibitive favorites, especially since they have home court advantage throughout the tournament. Only one league opponent gabe Vermont any real difficulty this year, and that was Maryland-Baltimore County. However, UMBC finished as the fifth seed, and the Retrievers will have to win a road game against New Hampshire to get a chance at the Catamounts. UNH lost at Vermont by just eight points after playing to a stalemate in the first half, and the Wildcats did not lose another game afterwards, finishing on a five-game winning streak.

Atlantic Sun

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Monday, February 27
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	Florida Gulf Coast	23-7	vs.	8	Stetson	11-20	7:00 PM	WatchESPN
2	2	Lipscomb	19-12	vs.	7	NJIT	11-19	8:00 PM	WatchESPN
3	3	North Florida	13-18	vs.	6	Jacksonville	17-14	7:00 PM	WatchESPN
4	4	USC-Upstate	17-14	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	13-17	7:00 PM	WatchESPN
Semifinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Game 1 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		TBA	WatchESPN
6		Game 2 winner		vs.		Game 3 winner		TBA	WatchESPN
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		3:00 PM	ESPN

Florida Gulf Coast has been in this spot before, and the Eagles have come through as the favorite more than once. They did lose at home to second seed Lipscomb in an ugly game where defense dominated, but the Bisons will most likely have to beat North Florida in the semifinals to get to Fort Myers for the title game. North Florida swept Lipscomb during the regular season, with their star Dallas Moore scoring 75 points in the two contests. FGCU is looking pretty and the Eagles would be competitive if they make the Big Dance. They beat UT-Arlington and lost close games to Michigan St. and Baylor.

Big Sky
North Dakota 13-3/18-8
Eastern Washington 12-4/20-9
Weber St. 11-5/16-11
Idaho 10-6/16-12
Montana St. 10-6/15-14

Weber State dropped three straight games, while the two teams above them in the standings are enjoying nice winning streaks. Montana State is the hot team from the next waive, but keep an eye on 8th place Portland State (7-9/14-13). The Vikings have lost a lot of close games, five in overtime, and they have the ability to score points in big spurts. It would not be a surprise if PSU upset a team or two in this tournament, which in our opinion is wide open.

Big South

Big South Conference Tournament–1st Round & Championship at Higher Seed, Middle 2 Rounds at #1 Winthrop
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	7	Campbell	14-16	vs.	10	Presbyterian	5-24	7:00 PM	BSouth Net.
2	8	Charleston Southern	11-18	vs.	9	Longwood	6-23	7:00 PM	BSouth Net.
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	2	UNC-Asheville	23-8	vs.		Game 1 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN3
4	3	Liberty	19-12	vs.	6	Radford	13-17	3:00 PM	ESPN3
5	1	Winthrop	23-6	vs.		Game 2 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
6	4	Gardner-Webb	18-13	vs.	5	High Point	15-15	9:00 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN

Winthrop and UNC-Asheville could be on a collision course for a rematch of last year’s championship game, where UNCA won on a neutral floor and then became fodder for eventual National Champion Villanova in the Round of 64. Winthrop has the edge this year, as the Eagles will play at home as long as they remain in the tournament. The two games between these teams were both nip and tuck games that went to the wire, with the game in Asheville needing an extra 10 minutes to decide the winner (UNCA won to earn a split). If you are looking for a dark horse, Gardner-Webb is playing its best ball of the year at the present time, and the Bulldogs upset UNCA to give the regular season title to Winthrop.

Big West
UC-Davis 10-4/18-11
UC-Irvine 10-4/17-13
Cal St. Fullerton 8-6/14-13

No team has been able to dominate in this league this year, and the tournament should be competitive. The current co-leaders meet in Irvine to close the regular season, and the winner should take the top seed. Long Beach St. (8-7/13-18) has been dreadful away from home this year, but Anaheim is almost like being at home in the Pyramid, so the 49ers might be worth looking at as a dark horse.

Colonial Athletic

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament–Charleston, SC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Hofstra	15-16	vs.	9	Delaware	12-19	6:00 PM	CAA.tv
2	7	James Madison	9-22	vs.	10	Drexel	9-22	8:30 PM	CAA.tv
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	UNC-Wilmington	26-5	vs.				12:00 PM	Comcast SN
4	4	William & Mary	16-13	vs.	5	Elon	18-13	2:30 PM	Comcast SN
5	2	College of Charleston	23-8	vs.				6:00 PM	Comcast SN
6	3	Towson St.	19-12	vs.	6	Northeastern	15-15	8:30 PM	Comcast SN
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		2:00 PM	Comcast SN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		4:30 PM	Comcast SN
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	CBSSN

A month ago, we could have just ceded this tournament to defending champ UNC-Wilmington, but that was before the Seahawks lost to William and Mary, Charleston, and Elon. Now, this looks like a tournament that is much more up for grabs. UNCW is still the favorite, but they will not win this is a cake walk. Expect some competitive games, and it would not be a surprise if somebody other than the top two teams emerges as the eventual champion. We are keeping an eye on 8-seed Hofstra. The Gaels lost a lot of close games and then won a couple on the road at the end. They have to play in the opening round and would need to win four games to take the NCAA bid, but they could sneak into the semifinals.

Conference USA
Note: Middle Tennessee is closing in on moving into the Bubble should they win out and make it to the CUSA Championship Game and lose. For now, we keep CUSA as a one-team bid.

Middle Tennessee 15-1/25-4
Louisiana Tech 13-4/21-9
Old Dominion 11-5/18-10
UTEP 11-5/13-15
Rice 10-6/20-9

Middle Tennessee clinched the CUSA regular season title yesterday, and with two home games over bottom-feeders, the Blue Raiders should enter the conference tournament at 27-4. The good news for MTSU is the host team looks like they are headed for a 7th place finish, and UAB could not face the Blue Raiders until the Championship Game from that spot. The Blazers took the Raiders to the wire yesterday in the Magic City. UTEP was the lone team to beat the Raiders, but Rice and Louisiana Tech played MTSU close and could pose a challenge.

Horizon
Oakland 14-4/24-7
Valparaiso 14-4/24-7
Northern Kentucky 12-6/21-10
Green Bay 12-6/18-12
Wright St. 11-7/20-11

Imagine how the Cleveland Cavaliers would respond if Lebron James were lost just prior to the start of the playoffs. That’s how Valpo feels right now, as their big star is out of action, and the Crusaders are just an average team without him. Will Alec Peters return 100% healthy from his leg injury that cost him to miss the last two games? Without him yesterday, Valpo lost at Northern Kentucky to fall into a first place tie with Oakland.

Oakland has won nine consecutive games, while Northern Kentucky is making a name for itself for the first time since it became the third Cincinnati-area team to play Division 1 basketball. NKU Head Coach John Brannen is one of the up and coming coaches with a future at a bigger program sometime down the road, and his Norse could be ready to make some noise in Motor City Madness.

Ivy
Princeton 12-0/19-6
Harvard 10-2/18-7
Yale 7-5/15-10
Columbia 5-7/11-14
Penn 5-7/12-13

The top four teams in the Ivy League qualify for the inaugural Ivy League Tournament at the Palestra in Philadelphia. Princeton and Harvard have clinched spots, while Yale needs another win to clinch a spot. The final spot is still to be decided, as Columbia beat Penn Saturday night to move back into a tie for fourth place. At present, Columbia holds the tiebreaker, but Penn has the more advantageous closing schedule with two home games, while the Lions must play two road games.

Princeton must still get by Harvard at home to finish 14-0 and then most likely will have to beat Harvard a third time to make it to the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers played a couple of good non-conference foes close, but this does not look like the year where an Ivy team will win an NCAA Tournament game.

Metro Atlantic

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament at Albany (Siena)
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Quinnipiac	10-20	vs.	9	Niagara	9-22	5:00 PM	ESPN3
2	7	Canisius	17-14	vs.	10	Marist	8-23	7:00 PM	ESPN3
3	6	Rider	17-14	vs.	11	Manhattan	10-21	9:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	1	Mounmouth	26-5	vs.		Game 1 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
5	2	St. Peter’s	18-12	vs.		Game 2 winner		9:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
6	3	Iona	19-12	vs.		Game 3 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
7	4	Siena	15-16	vs.	5	Fairfield	16-13	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round–Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		4:30 PM	ESPN3
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
10		Game 8 winner		vs.		Game 9 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2

An interesting factoid here: The MAAC tiebreaker system forced a coin flip to determine the bottom two seeds. Marist and Manhattan tied for last at 5-15. Using the MAAC tiebreaker system, the two teams split their games. The second tiebreaker resorts in seeing who had the better record against the top-ranked team and downward until one team finished with a better record against the teams in order. Unfortunately, both Marist and Manhattan were swept by the top 5 teams. The 6th and 7th place teams tied, and Marist and Manhattan both went 1-3 against those two teams. Both teams swept Niagara, so that left no choice but to flip a coin to decide which team would be the #10 seed and which team would be the #11 seed.
Marist won the coin flip and will be the #10 seed, while Manhattan will be the #11 seed.

As for the other end of the standings, Monmouth tries to make up for stumbling in this tournament last year when the Hawks had enough talent to do some damage in the Big Dance. They may get there a year late, but the 2017 Hawks do not look to be as strong as last year’s team; they do enter the tournament riding a 16-game winning streak. Siena has to be considered a contender, since the tournament will be played on their home floor. Iona and St. Peter’s will not go down without a fight, so if the bracket holds, the semifinal round should be one worth watching.

Mid-American
Akron 13-3/23-6
Ohio 10-6/18-9
Ball St. 9-7/18-11
Kent St. 9-7/17-12
Buffalo 9-7/15-14
Western Michigan 9-7/13-15

The MAC Tournament is always a wide-open event, and the regular season champ is rarely a big favorite. Buffalo has won the last two MAC Tournaments, and the Bulls have to be considered a contender to “three-peat.” Akron failed as the top seed last year, and the Zips have lost the magic touch they had earlier in the season when they ran off a dozen victories in a row. Kent State is the hot team in the East, while Western Michigan is trying to become the MAC basketball version of the 1914 Miracle Boston Braves. WMU was in last place at 3-7 in the league, but the Broncos have won six consecutive games to move into a tie for first in the West.

Mideastern Athletic
UNC-Central 13-1/22-6
Norfolk St. 12-3/15-14
Morgan St. 10-4/13-14

MEAC hopes for avoiding Dayton rest on UNC-Central winning the conference tournament. The Eagles could even concievably move up to a 15-seed if they win out.

Mountain West
Nevada 12-4/23-6
Colorado St. 12-4/20-9
Boise St. 11-5/18-9
Fresno St. 9-7/17-11

Every week, we see a different team looking like the best in this league, but what the last few weeks have really told us is there is no really great MWC team this year like San Diego State and New Mexico have been in recent years. Then again, the top four this year are not chopped liver, and even though this figures to be a one-bid league in 2017, don’t automatically select this league’s representative to fall in their first NCAA Tournament game. Nevada has a very good offense. Colorado State has a very good defense. Boise State and Fresno State have better than average offenses and defenses. And, then there is always the possibility that one of the two recent teams that have controlled this league (San Diego St. and New Mexico) could get hot and take the conference tournament crown.

Northeast

Northeast Conference Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	Mount St. Mary’s	16-15	vs.	8	Sacred Heart	13-18	7:00 PM	NEC Frontrow
2	2	Long Island	20-11	vs.	7	Robert Morris	13-18	9:00 PM	MSG+/FCS
3	3	Wagner	15-13	vs.	6	Fairleigh-Dickinson	11-18	7:00 PM	MSG+/FCS
4	4	St. Francis (PA)	14-15	vs.	5	Bryant	12-19	7:00 PM	NEC Frontrow
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Highest Remaining Seed		vs.		Lowest Remaining Seed		12 or 2 PM	MSG/FCS
6		2nd Highest Remaining Seed		vs.		2nd Lowest Remaining Seed		12 or 2 PM	MSG/FCS
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs

In the last four years, four different teams have won the NEC regular season championship, and four different teams have won the conference tournament. In the four cases, the regular season champion did not win the conference tournament. The last team to win both the regular season and conference tournament was Long Island five years ago. Mount St. Mary’s won the regular season title, but LIU looks like the team to beat once again, as the Blackbirds enter tourney play riding a six-game winning streak that includes a victory at MSM.

Ohio Valley

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament at Nashville
1st Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	5	Southeast Missouri	14-17	vs.	8	Tennessee St.	17-12	7:30 PM	OVC Digital
2	6	Tennessee Tech	12-19	vs.	7	Murray St.	14-16	9:30 PM	OVC Digital
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	4	Jacksonville St.	17-14			Game 1 winner		7:30 PM	OVC Digital
4	3	Morehead St.	14-15			Game 2 winner		9:30 PM	OVC Digital
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Belmont	22-5			Game 3 winner		7:30 PM	ESPNU
6	2	UT-Martin	20-11			Game 4 winner		10:00 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN2

Belmont has been in the NCAA Tournament seven times in the last 11 years, and if the Bruins do not make it eight out of 12 this year, it will be a major shock. Last year, Austin Peay came from the lowest seed to upset the field, and if you are looking for a team to repeat that, keep an eye on Tennessee State.

Patriot

Patriot League Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	7	Loyola (MD.)	14-15	vs.	10	Lafayette	9-20	7:30 PM	Patriot Lg Net
2	8	Army	12-18	vs.	9	American	8-21	7:00 PM	Patriot Lg Net
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	2	Boston U	23-8	vs.		Game 1 winner		7:00 PM	Patriot Lg Net
4	3	Lehigh	19-12	vs.	6	Colgate	10-21	7:00 PM	Patriot Lg Net
5	1	Bucknell	23-6	vs.		Game 2 winner		7:00 PM	Patriot Lg Net
6	4	Navy	18-13	vs.	5	Holy Cross	15-16	7:00 PM	Patriot Lg Net
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		12 or 2 PM	CBSSN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		12 or 2 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:30 PM	CBSSN

Bucknell is tough to beat at home, and the Bison will get home court advantage throughout the tournament, but Lehigh swept the Bison during the regular season. The Explorers were swept by Boston U, and they will most likely have to win in Boston to get to Bucknell. Boston was swept by Bucknell, so the top three were like Rock, Paper, Scissors. Might another team be in the mix? It would be a very long shot, because the top three ended the season looking double-digit points better than the rest of the league.

Southern
East Tennessee 14-3/24-6
Furman 14-4/21-10
UNC-Greensboro 13-4/22-8
Chattanooga 10-7/19-10

The two hot teams meet tonight to decide the regular season champion, with ETSU visiting UNCG. Both teams enter with six-game winning streaks, and both teams have been playing defense like champions. The loser of this game will probably get a chance for revenge when the outcome is much more important.

Southland
New Orleans 12-4/17-10
Texas A&M-CC 11-5/18-9
Stephen F. Austin 11-5/16-12
Houston Baptist 10-6/15-12

This is a weak year in the SLC, and the eventural league representative in the NCAA has a high probability of heading to Dayton as a 16-seed in a first four game. The two hot teams as conference play comes to the end are Texas A&M-CC with a nine-game winning streak and Houston Baptist with a seven-game winning streak. TAMCC coach Willis Wilson came close to getting into the Dance many times with Rice, and he has slowly built the Islanders into a contender. It would be touching if Wilson finally made it to the NCAA Tournament in his 22nd season as a Division I head coach.

Southwestern Athletic
Texas Southern 13-2/17-11
Southern 10-6/14-15
Grambling 8-7/13-15

Unfortunately for this league, the hottest team is the one ineligible to go to the NCAA Tournament (Alcorn State). Texas Southern will be the heavy favorite, but even if the Tigers win the tournament, they will almost assuredly have to play in the First Four in Dayton.

Summit

Summit League Tournament–Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	South Dakota	21-10		8	Western Illinois	8-19	7:00 PM	ESPN3
2	2	North Dakota St.	19-10		7	IUPUI	13-17	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	4	South Dakota St.	15-16		5	Denver	16-13	7:00 PM	ESPN3
4	3	Omaha	16-13		6	Fort Wayne	19-11	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Game 1 winner				Game 3 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
6		Game 2 winner				Game 4 winner		9:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2

This should be a rather interesting tournament. 4-seed South Dakota State and 6-seed Fort Wayne cannot be overlooked, but the top three seeds are clearly the co-favorites. Omaha and Fort Wayne can light up the scoreboard, and their quarterfinal game could see one or both teams top the century mark.

Sun Belt
UT-Arlington 12-3/22-6
Georgia St. 11-5/18-10
Georgia Southern 11-5/18-11
Arkansas St. 10-5/18-9

UT-Arlington has the lone signature win in this league this year (beat St. Mary’s), and the Mavericks could be this year’s version of UALR. The top four in this league could play each other 10 times, and the final records might range from just 17-13 to 13-17, so UTA cannot automatically waltz through to the NCAA Tournament.

Western Athletic
Cal St. Bakersfield 12-1/21-7
New Mexico St. 10-3/24-5

One of these two teams should win the conference tournament, mostly because the only other quality team (Grand Canyon) is still a year away from becoming a full-fledge Division I member. CSUB has won 10 games in a row by an average of 11.5 points per game, which includes a win over New Mexico St.

MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES

American
In: SMU, Cincinnati
Bubble: Houston

Atlantic 10
In: Dayton, VCU
Bubble: Rhode Island

Atlantic Coast
In: North Carolina, Florida St., Louisville, Notre Dame, Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech, Virginia
Bubble: Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech

Big 12
In: Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Bubble: Kansas St., TCU, Texas Tech

Big East
In: Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Bubble: Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier, Marquette

Big Ten
In: Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan St., Northwestern, Michigan
Bubble: Iowa

Missouri Valley

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (Arch Madness) at St. Louis
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Evansville	15-16	vs.	9	Indiana St.	11-19	7:00 PM	MVC TV
2	7	Bradley	12-19	vs.	10	Drake	7-23	9:30 PM	MVC TV
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	Illinois St.	25-5	vs.		Game 1 winner		1:00 PM	MVC TV
4	4	Southern Illinois	16-15	vs.	5	Loyola (Chi.)	18-13	3:30 PM	MVC TV
5	2	Wichita St.	27-4	vs.		Game 2 winner		7:00 PM	MVC TV
6	3	Northern Iowa	14-15	vs.	6	Missouri St.	16-15	9:30 PM	MVC TV
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		3:30 PM	CBSSN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		6:00 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		2:00 PM	CBS

In: Wichita St.
Bubble: Illinois St.

Pac-12
In: Oregon, Arizona, UCLA
Bubble: California, Utah, USC

SEC
In: Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina
Bubble: Vanderbilt, Georgia

West Coast

West Coast Conference Tournament at Las Vegas
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Pepperdine	9-21	vs.	9	Pacific	10-21	BYUtv	9:00 PM
2	7	San Diego	13-17	vs.	10	Portland	10-21	BYUtv	11:00 PM
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	3	BYU	21-10	vs.	6	Loyola Marymount	15-14	4:00 PM	BYUtv
4	4	Santa Clara	16-15	vs.	5	San Francisco	20-11	6:00 PM	BYUtv
5	1	Gonzaga	29-1	vs.		Game 1 winner		10:00 PM	ESPN2
6	2	Saint Mary’s	26-3	vs.		Game 2 winner		12:00 AM	ESPN2
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN

In: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Bubble: None

The PiRate Ratings Bracketology Gurus Composite For February 27, 2017
1. North Carolina, Kansas, Villanova, Oregon
2. Gonzaga, Louisville, Kentucky, Baylor
3. Arizona, UCLA, Butler, Florida St.
4. West Virginia, SMU, Purdue, Florida
5. Duke, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Creighton
6. Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oklahoma St.
7. Saint Mary’s, Miami, Maryland, Iowa St.
8. South Carolina, Dayton, Michigan St., Virginia Tech
9. Michigan, Wichita St., Arkansas, VCU
10. Middle Tennessee, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Syracuse
11. Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier, California, Marquette
12. UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, UT-Arlington, Illinois St., Wake Forest
13. Vermont, Monmouth, Bucknell, East Tennessee
14. Western Michigan, Belmont, Princeton, UNC-Asheville
15. Oakland, Cal St. Bakersfield, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota
16. Eastern Washington, UNC-Central, Texas Southern, UC-Davis, Long Island, Texas A&M-CC

Last Four Byes: Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Syracuse
Last Four In/Dayton Bound: Wake Forest vs. Illinois St. / Marquette vs. California
First Four Out/#1 NIT Seeds: Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, Kansas St., TCU
Next Four Out: Georgia Tech, Houston, Texas Tech, Georgia

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 25-26, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Red-White-Blue Spreads *

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 25, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Clemson	Florida St.	-3	-1	-3
Pittsburgh	North Carolina	-10	-9	-6
North Carolina St.	Virginia	-8	-9	-9
Boston College	Virginia Tech	-6	-5	-2
Miami	Duke	-1	-1	-1
Connecticut	SMU	-6	-6	-4
TCU	West Virginia	-7	-7	1
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	10	6	8
Iowa St.	Baylor	3	2	-4
Texas	Kansas	-7	-6	-5
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	-1	-1	-2
St. John’s	Georgetown	1	-1	-4
DePaul	Seton Hall	-5	-5	-7
Villanova	Creighton	8	10	8
Providence	Marquette	2	2	9
Minnesota	Penn St.	10	9	11
Michigan	Purdue	-2	-1	-2
Maryland	Iowa	7	8	9
Indiana	Northwestern	3	6	8
Missouri St.	Wichita St.	-12	-9	-10
Northern Iowa	Illinois St.	-5	-3	-5
Stanford	Oregon	-7	-10	-8
Arizona	UCLA	2	2	7
Arizona St.	USC	-3	-4	-4
Washington St.	Washington	2	1	1
South Carolina	Tennessee	6	5	4
Kentucky	Florida	5	3	3
Ole Miss	Missouri	11	10	10
Vanderbilt	Mississippi St.	7	7	10
Georgia	LSU	14	12	13
Texas A&M	Alabama	4	3	6
Auburn	Arkansas	1	1	-1
Gonzaga	BYU	23	19	19
Saint Mary’s	Santa Clara	17	18	19

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 26, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Louisville	Syracuse	14	12	15
Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	12	14	10
Central Florida	Cincinnati	-4	-5	-2
Xavier	Butler	1	1	2
Michigan St.	Wisconsin	-1	-1	6
Nebraska	Illinois	2	1	1

* Red, White, and Blue Ratings are 3 different algorithmic formulas using basketball’s Four Factors, Strength of Schedule, and where the game is played as the predominant data to come up with a game spread.  The Red and White Ratings closely mirror each other, while the Blue Rating uses considerably more data and is time-consuming to calculate.  Thus, we are limited with the amount of games we can predict.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Gonzaga
2. North Carolina
3. Kansas
4. Villanova
5. Florida
6. Kentucky
7. Louisville
8. West Virginia
9. Wichita St.
10. Oregon
11. Duke
12. Purdue
13. UCLA
14. Saint Mary’s
15. Baylor
16. Cincinnati
17. Florida St.
18. Wisconsin
19. SMU
20. Arizona
21. Notre Dame
22. Creighton
23. Virginia
24. Butler
25. Oklahoma St.

ACC

1. North Carolina
2. Louisville
3. Duke
4. Florida St.
5. Notre Dame
6. Virginia
7. Miami
8. Syracuse
9. Wake Forest
10. Virginia Tech
11. Clemson
12. Pittsburgh
13. Georgia Tech
14. North Carolina St.
15. Boston College

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Iowa St.
6. Kansas St.
7. TCU
8. Texas Tech
9. Texas
10. Oklahoma

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Creighton
3. Butler
4. Xavier
5. Marquette
6. Providence
7. Georgetown
8. Seton Hall
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Purdue
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Minnesota
5. Maryland
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan St.
8. Indiana
9. Ohio St.
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Pac-12

1. Oregon
2. UCLA
3. Arizona
4. California
5. USC
6. Utah
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. Arkansas
4. South Carolina
5. Vanderbilt
6. Georgia
7. Ole Miss
8. Tennessee
9. Alabama
10. Texas A&M
11. Auburn
12. Mississippi St.
13. Missouri
14. LSU

Oh, have we got some great games for you this weekend

Every week, we seem to tell you there are some great games to watch for that weekend.  This one is no different.  There are more than enough interesting games this week for you to watch.  Most of the Bubble teams are playing, and we have the crucial ones you can see on TV or online.  Then, you have some big games where both teams will be in the NCAA no matter what, so these games are big just to see who looks the part.  You also have a couple of rival games, and in one case there is a low-major conference rivalry game that ended in a fight the last time the two teams played on the same court where they will play this weekend.  You will see that we have compared this game to the 1965 Giants and Dodgers, but at least no baseball bats will be present (at least we hope).

All Times Eastern
Time	Home	Visitor	TV	Why to Watch
Friday Night
7:00 PM	Green Bay	Oakland	ESPNU	2nd place in Horizon on the line
7:00 PM	Monmouth	Siena	ESPN2	Monmouth G Justin Robinson
8:00 PM	Harvard	Yale	ESPN3	These two rivals will meet in Ivy Semis too
Saturday
Time	Home	Visitor	TV	Why to Watch
12:00 PM	Clemson	Florida St.	ACC Net.	Must win for CU on the Bubble
12:00 PM	Connecticut	SMU	CBS	SMU vying for #3 Seed
1:00 PM	New Hampshire	Md.-Baltimore Co.	ESPN3	AmEst #3 Seed to avoid Verm. til finals
2:00 PM	Kentucky	Florida	CBS	SEC Reg. Season Championhip on the line
2:00 PM	TCU	West Virginia	ESPN	TCU needs win for Bubble Advancement
2:00 PM	Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	ESPNU	TTU needs win for Bubble Advancement
2:00 PM	Northern Iowa	Illinois St.	CBSSN	ISU trying to stay on good part of Bubble
2:00 PM	Rhode Island	VCU	ESPN2	URI needs win stay at bottom of Bubble
2:00 PM	Vermont	Stony Brook	ESPN3	Top 2 teams in AmEst–Title preview?
3:00 PM	Villanova	Creighton	Fox	Top 20 Matchup
4:00 PM	Vanderbilt	Mississippi St.	ESPNU	VU needs win to stay on Bubble
4:00 PM	Michigan	Purdue	ESPN2	Mich. trying to stay on good part of Bubble
4:00 PM	Miami (Fla.)	Duke	CBS	Miami can clinch NCAA w/win
4:00 PM	Stanford	Oregon	Pac-12 Net.	Ducks competing for #2 Seed
4:00 PM	Iowa St.	Baylor	ESPN	Baylor competing for #2 Seed
4:00 PM	Providence	Marquette	CBSSN	Both teams on Bubble–Marq in better pos.
6:00 PM	Oklahoma	Kansas St.	ESPNU	KSU must win to stay in Bubble
7:00 PM	Columbia	Penn	ESPN3	Last Ivy League Tournament spot on line
8:00 PM	Indiana	Northwestern	Big 10 Net.	IU loss could be final straw for Crean
8:15 PM	Arizona	UCLA	ESPN	Game of the Day
10:00 PM	Gonzaga	BYU	ESPN2	Zags Last resume builder until WCCT
Sunday
Time	Home	Visitor	TV	Why to Watch
1:00 PM	UAB	Middle Tennessee	CBSSN	MTSU slim chance for at-large if needed
2:00 PM	Louisville	Syracuse	CBS	Orange win secures NCAA bid
3:00 PM	Central Florida	Cincinnati	CBSSN	Will Tacko make Cinti Fall
3:30 PM	Xavier	Butler	FS1	Game of the Day
4:00 PM	Michigan St.	Wisconsin	CBS	MSU win & on the “in” part of the Bubble
4:00 PM	Iona	Monmouth	ESPN3	Mad Rivalry like 1965 Dodgers-Giants
6:30 PM	Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	ESPNU	Tech needs more W’s for NCAA bid

Conference Tournaments Begin Monday

One conference tournament commences play Monday night.  The Atlantic Sun Bracket is finalized, and the quarterfinal round begins on the 27th.  The A-Sun does not have one hosting site.  All games will be played on the home floor of the higher seed, and Florida Gulf Coast owns home court advantage throughout.

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Monday, February 27
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Florida Gulf Coast	23-7	vs.	8	Stetson	11-20	7:00 PM	WatchESPN
2	Lipscomb	19-12	vs.	7	NJIT	11-19	8:00 PM	WatchESPN
3	North Florida	13-18	vs.	6	Jacksonville	17-14	7:00 PM	WatchESPN
4	USC-Upstate	17-14	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	13-17	7:00 PM	WatchESPN

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 18-19, 2017

 

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 18, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Miami (Fla.)	Clemson	3	5	5
North Carolina St.	Notre Dame	-7	-5	-4
Duke	Wake Forest	9	11	10
Louisville	Virginia Tech	14	14	15
Pittsburgh	Florida St.	-1	-5	-4
North Carolina	Virginia	6	4	2
Cincinnati	Tulsa	16	17	14
Houston	SMU	-1	1	-1
Baylor	Kansas	2	2	7
Texas	Kansas St.	-1	1	2
West Virginia	Texas Tech	14	12	9
Iowa St.	TCU	8	8	4
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	14	11	13
Seton Hall	Villanova	-7	-8	-5
Marquette	Xavier	3	3	-1
Iowa	Illinois	6	3	1
Purdue	Michigan St.	13	13	8
Northwestern	Rutgers	13	11	9
Ohio St.	Nebraska	6	7	5
Wichita St.	Northern Iowa	20	17	18
Oregon	Colorado	12	15	18
Washington St.	Arizona St.	-2	-1	3
Washington	Arizona	-10	-10	-9
UCLA	USC	12	12	9
Tennessee	Missouri	14	12	15
Mississippi St.	Florida	-12	-11	-10
Alabama	LSU	12	12	10
Texas A&M	Auburn	4	4	8
Arkansas	Ole Miss	7	7	5
Georgia	Kentucky	-7	-7	-4
Vanderbilt	South Carolina	-2	1	2
Gonzaga	Pacific	34	27	29
BYU	Saint Mary’s	-3	-5	-5

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 19, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Georgia Tech	Syracuse	1	-3	2
Butler	DePaul	19	18	21
Creighton	Georgetown	9	8	5
Wisconsin	Maryland	7	8	4
Minnesota	Michigan	4	1	6
Illinois St.	Loyola (Chi.)	10	8	8
Oregon St.	Utah	-13	-10	-11

PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Gonzaga
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. West Virginia
5. Louisville
6. North Carolina
7. Florida
8. Kentucky
9. Virginia
10. Duke
11. Purdue
12. Florida St.
13. Baylor
14. UCLA
15. Wichita St.
16. Oregon
17. Saint Mary’s
18. SMU
19. Arizona
20. Creighton
21. Wisconsin
22. Oklahoma St.
23. Cincinnati
24. Butler
25. Notre Dame

 

ACC

1. Louisville
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Duke
5. Florida St.
6. Notre Dame
7. Wake Forest
8. Miami (Fla.)
9. Clemson
10. Syracuse
11. Virginia Tech
12. Georgia Tech
13. Pittsburgh
14. North Carolina St.
15. Boston College

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Iowa St.
6. TCU
7. Kansas St.
8. Texas Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Creighton
3. Butler
4. Marquette
5. Xavier
6. Seton Hall
7. Providence
8. Georgetown
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Purdue
2. Wisconsin
3. Maryland
4. Northwestern
5. Minnesota
6. Michigan
7. Indiana
8. Michigan St.
9. Iowa
10. Ohio St.
11. Illinois
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Pac-12

1. UCLA
2. Oregon
3. Arizona
4. California
5. Utah
6. USC
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Washington
10. Arizona St.
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. South Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Alabama
8. Ole Miss
9. Vanderbilt
10. Texas A&M
11. Auburn
12. Mississippi St.
13. Missouri
14. LSU

Friday Night Games You Might Want To Watch

Don’t wait until Saturday to start following basketball games, because there are some interesting Friday night games this week.

Starting at 7 PM EST tonight, tune into ESPN2 to see Valparaiso visit Oakland in a battle of the top two teams in the Horizon League.  Alec Peters may be the best Mid-Major player you have not seen.  Peters averages 23.1 points per game and 10.7 rebounds a game for Valpo, and he is an excellent passer similar to Bill Walton in his UCLA days.

Earlier in the season, Oakland won by 12 at Valpo, never allowing the Crusaders to take a lead in the entire game.  Oakland guard Martez Walker put the game away in the opening minutes of the second half with a salvo of baskets while also being a force on the glass.

 

There are two important Ivy League games tonight.  Columbia visits Harvard in a game the Lions need to show they belong with the top three in the league.  Princeton, Harvard, and Yale are locks to make the four-team Ivy League Tournament, but Columbia still has work to do and has a weekend road set with Harvard and Dartmouth after losing at Penn and Princeton last weekend.  This game will be on ESPN3 at 7 PM EST.  Two more losses this weekend, and Columbia could be tied for fourth rather in fourth by two games over the lower division.

At 8 PM EST on ESPN3, Princeton visits Yale.  If the Tigers can get by the Bulldogs tonight, their chance of wrapping up the top seed in the Ivy League’s first ever tournament will be about 98%, since they already won at Harvard.  PU is riding an 11-game winning streak.

 

At 9 PM EST on ESPN2, Virginia Commonwealth visits Richmond in a big Atlantic 10 game.  VCU is in first place in the league, but the Rams need a resume boost to guarantee a possible at-large bid if they do not earn the automatic invitation.  Richmond has no signature wins, and the Spiders will have to run the table in the A-10 Tournament to get back to the Dance.

 

At 10 PM EST, California travels west across the Bay to take on Stanford at Maples Pavilion in a game that could move the Bears into safe at-large territory if they can take down their rival.  This game will air on FS1.  Coach Cuonzo Martin’s teams tend to become tougher defensively and gel as a team in the second half of the year, and this Bear team is 8-2 in its last 10 games with the two losses coming at Oregon and at Arizona.  Three weeks ago in Berkeley, 6-11 Ivan Rabb was unstoppable, hitting a couple of threes from the top of the key and getting some in-your-face baskets at the rim, as his 25 points destroyed the Cardinal.

 

Saturday’s Best Games

Kansas at Baylor 1 PM EST on CBS

Kentucky at Georgia 6 PM EST on ESPN

TCU at Iowa St. 6 PM EST on ESPNEWS

SMU at Houston 6 PM EST on ESPN2

Xavier at Marquette 8 PM EST on CBSSN

Virginia at North Carolina 8:15 PM EST on ESPN

USC at UCLA 10 PM EST on Pac-12 Network

Saint Mary’s at BYU 10 PM EST on ESPN2

 

Gonzaga 2017 vs. Wichita State 2014

Current undefeated and top-ranked Gonzaga reminds many fans of the 2014 Wichita State team that ran the table and earned the regular season number one ranking prior to entering NCAA Tournament action as the top seed.  That Shocker team beat only one top team that season, winning at Tennessee.  The Vols would go on to make the Sweet 16, before falling to Michigan by a bucket.

This year’s Gonzaga team has a slightly better schedule resume.  The Bulldogs own neutral court victories of Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona in an 8-day period just after Thanksgiving.  The Zags also swept top 20 Saint Mary’s by 23 and 10 points.

Let’s take a look at the Four Factors comparison between the two teams.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

Gonzaga has the clear advantage here.  The Bulldogs current EFG% is 58.1%.  Their regular FG% is 51.6%, and they are hitting 39% of their three-point attempts.  Defensively, GU gives up an EFG% of just 41.7%, for an EFG% margin of 16.4%, the best in the nation.

In 2014, Wichita State was quite good in this factor, but they were not as good as GU this year.  The Shockers’ EFG% was 52.6%, as there were games where they could not hit from outside 10 feet until the last 5-8 minutes of the second half.  Their defensive EFG% was very good at 44.6% for an EFG% margin of 8.0%.  It was not in the top 10 in the nation that year.

 

Turnover Rate

This factor is a wash between the two undefeated teams.  Gonzaga has a current TO rate of 13.8 and a defensive TO rate of 16.1 for a margin of 2.3%

Wichita State had a TO rate of 13.6 and a defensive TO rate of 16.3 for a margin of 2.7%.

 

Rebound Rate

This is where Wichita State had a major advantage.  The Shockers had an Offensive Rebound Rate of 35.0, which was very good, while their Defensive Rebound Rate was an excellent 26.0 for a Rebound Rate margin of 9.0%.  The Shockers did not have a dominant rebounder, but their three guards rebounded like power forwards.

 

Gonzaga has an Offensive Rebound Rate of 31.1 and a Defensive Rebound Rate of 27.0 for a Rebound Rate margin of 4.1.  The Bulldogs have won the battle of the boards in a large majority of their games thanks to the two-headed seven-foot dominators combining for 11 boards a game.  While the Bulldogs are quite good in this factor, Wichita State was dominant.

 

Free Throw Rate

This is the least important of the Four Factors, but it is still important just by being one of the four factors.  Gonzaga has one of the best FT Rate margins in the nation this year, and the reason is that opponents are forced to foul Gonzaga’s big dominating centers inside to prevent easy baskets.

GU’s offensive FT Rate is 22.9, and their defensive FT Rate is 15.3 for a FT Rate margin of 7.6%.  As good as this number is, 2014 Wichita State had one of the best FT Rates of all time.  Their Offensive FT Rate was 28.4, while their Defensive FT Rate was 18.8 for a FT Rate margin of 9.6%!

 

Other Factors

These factors were made under slightly different strengths of schedule.  Gonzaga’s current SOS averages about 2 points per game better than Wichita’s SOS from 2014.  This even includes Wichita’s game against Kentucky, which put an end to the undefeated season in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.

The PiRate R+T ratings for both teams is a wash.  Gonzaga’s current R+T is 20.4, while Wichita State’s was 21.2.  Both teams received ample extra scoring opportunities due to superior rebounding and turnovers (with an emphasis on steals).

There is virtually no difference in quality depth, as both teams could go two deep at every position.

 

Wichita State’s Season Ended

The Shockers won their first NCAA Tournament game by 27 points over 16-seed Cal Poly.  Then they fell by 2 to Kentucky in the next round.  Kentucky won because Wichita State lacked the overall quickness to prevent numerous open shots by the Wildcats on both the perimeter and through penetration.  John Calipari adjusted well at halftime when Wichita State enjoyed a 6-point lead, and a 10-0 UK run in a three-minute stretch at the start of the second half gave Kentucky the lead.  Trailing by two with seven seconds left, Wichita State had a chance to tie or win the game, but Fred Van Vleet’s contested three-pointer from 21 feet out bricked off the backboard.

 

Gonzaga’s Vulnerability

It is difficult for some to understand that an undefeated team with a scoring margin of 23.8 points per game could really be vulnerable, but even the 1972 UCLA Bruins had a few liabilities.  Gonzaga is not unbeatable, as all college teams (even the UConn women’s team) can be defeated, even if it is not that likely.

A good pressure defense team can disrupt the Bulldogs enough to provide an opening to score some cheap baskets off steals and to force GU into foul trouble.  Florida almost had enough in the defensive tank to pull it off, but Gonzaga still won thanks to hot inside-outside shooting from Josh Perkins and Jonathan Williams, while the Bulldog defense stuck to the Gators like glue, forcing UF to shoot just 36.9% from the field and a pitiful 10.5% from behind the arc.

Gonzaga does not always put an opponent away once they have taken a double-digit lead.  They almost saw Iowa State come back from a 15-point halftime deficit and 18-point 2nd half deficit, as Iowa State’s Deonte Burton brought the Cyclones back to within a point with multiple chances to take the lead in the final minute.  ISU had a shot to win at the buzzer and could not get the shot off.  If GU does not help out on defense, a star player can possibly end the Bulldogs’ season in the Big Dance.

Our Take

We believe Gonzaga is clearly better than the 2014 Wichita State team.  If they enter the NCAA Tournament with a 33-0 record (which we believe is about 95% possible), they will obviously be a #1 seed.  The first game against a #16 seed should be no problem, and we cannot see any possible #8 or #9 seed finding a way to beat them two days later.

Once they get to the Sweet 16, there could be some teams capable of beating the Zags, but only if either Gonzaga lays a big egg or the opponent plays lights out.  The possible #4 or #5 seeds that could pose a problem for GU include West Virginia, Cincinnati, SMU, and South Carolina.  All four of these teams can force Gonzaga to turn the ball over and alter their offense to a point where they must shoot poor shots late in the shot clock.

If Gonzaga makes it to the Elite 8, there will be somebody like Louisville, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, Duke, or North Carolina in their path.  All of these teams can beat Gonzaga half the time, so it would be considered a 50-50 game against any of these teams.

Looking at the Final Four if GU finally makes it to there, we actually do not think the other potential number one seeds are the teams likely to beat the Bulldogs.  Villanova, Kansas, and Baylor will not match up well with GU.  It will be another team, like one of the teams mentioned in the Elite 8 paragraph that will stop the undefeated streak–if it is stopped.

 

Since Indiana last blitzed the field in 1975-76 (and Rutgers made it to the Final Four undefeated), Indiana State in 1979, UNLV in 1991, and Kentucky in 2015, made it to the Final Four unbeaten, and none of the three won the title.

Indiana State was clearly not up to Michigan State’s talent level as Larry Bird could not beat Magic Johnson plus Greg Kelser plus 5 or 6 other really good Spartans.

UNLV met a really good Duke team that probably would not have beaten the Runnin’ Rebels more than 2 times out of 10.  However, the Blue Devils had been dealt a major black eye with the worst ever National Championship Game loss to UNLV the year before, and they came out punching.

Kentucky ran up against a much more poised and mature Wisconsin team, one in which the Badgers players had ma lot more NCAA Tournament experience.  UW played a smart game; they forced Kentucky to beat them by doing something other than one-on-one dribble drives and feeds when faced with double-teams.  The UK players did not come out punching, and their defense was subpar that night.

In Gonzaga’s favor, they are not a one-man team like Indiana State (Carl Nicks was good but not a star).  They will not face an opponent that has a grudge from losing by 30+ points the last time they played, but Florida and Arizona might know a little more about what it will take to win if there is a rematch in the Dance.  The Bulldogs are not an inexperienced team lacking maturity that will fall to a more experienced, more mature team, because Mark Few has too many mature players on this team for that to happen.

If Gonzaga loses in the NCAA Tournament, it will be because the other team has equal or superior talent and plays well enough with that talent to win.  Otherwise, GU will become the next undefeated national champion.

The PiRates say that Gonzaga has a 1 in 12 chance of going 39-0 and winning the national title and maybe a 1 in 11.8 chance of just winning the national title.  We believe they have a 1 in 3 chance of making it to the Final Four.