| Home | Visitor | Spread |
| San Diego St. | Florida Atlantic | 1.3 |
| Connecticut | Miami (Fla) | 6.7 |
Bracketnomics Comparisons
| Stat | FAU | SDSU |
| O-RTG | 24 | 75 |
| D-RTG | 30 | 4 |
| SOS | 52.2 | 58.9 |
| 3-Pt | 36.5 | 34.7 |
| O-Reb | 31.7 | 32.0 |
| 2PT%D | 44.7 | 49.4 |
| FTR | 29.2 | 32.6 |
| R+T Rate | 8.4 | 7.8 |
| Old R+T | 16.5 | 13.5 |
| Marg | 12.9 | 8.6 |
| Win Strk | 20 & 11 | 8 & 6 |
| Pre25 | NO | YES |
| Champ | YES | YES |
| Coach Exp | 0 | 3: 0-3 |
| 3 Upper | NO | YES |
| F/C 20-12 | NO | NO |
| DBLFIG | 3 | 1 |
| OReb | 31.7 | 32.0 |
| OStl | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| OTurn | 15.7 | 14.9 |
| DReb | 24.8 | 25.7 |
| DStl | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| DTurn | 15.9 | 15.1 |
| Reb Marg | 6.2 | 4.5 |
| Stl/G | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| D Stl | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| TO Marg | 0.6 | 1.3 |
One of these Cinderella teams will become the next Butler, playing a big-time team for the National Championship Monday night. We don’t have this as a factor, but a CUSA team won the CBI, and a CUSA team beat another CUSA team in the NIT Championship Game. Could it be that CUSA is a lot better than the numbers show? If so, then how much more does Florida Atlantic deserve to be given credit?
The efficiency numbers are outside the range of a national champion, so if one of these teams cuts down the nets Monday night, it will throw a monkey wrench into this system. As for this semifinal game, FAU has the closer championship resume with a much better offensive efficiency rating. The Owls also appear to be the superior inside defense team in this system. Even though the PiRate Ratings spread favors SDSU, the Bracketnomics Criteria says FAU will win this game, and it might eventually be by a margin in double figures.
| Stat | Miami | UConn |
| O-RTG | 5 | 3 |
| D-RTG | 104 | 11 |
| SOS | 56.7 | 59.8 |
| 3-Pt | 36.9 | 36.3 |
| O-Reb | 31.7 | 38.5 |
| 2PT%D | 51.6 | 45.0 |
| FTR | 31.0 | 30.5 |
| R+T Rate | 5.8 | 14.9 |
| Old R+T | 10.8 | 21.4 |
| Marg | 7.7 | 14.4 |
| Win Strk | 9 & 7 | 14 & 6 |
| Pre25 | NO | NO |
| Champ | Co | No |
| Coach Exp | 10 & 1FF | 4: 0-4 |
| 3 Upper | NO | NO |
| F/C 20-12 | NO | YES |
| DBLFIG | 4 | 3 |
| OReb | 31.7 | 38.5 |
| OStl | 10.5 | 9.2 |
| OTurn | 14.1 | 15.7 |
| DReb | 28.4 | 25.7 |
| DStl | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| DTurn | 15.7 | 16.5 |
| Reb Marg | 2.9 | 9.4 |
| Stl/G | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| D Stl | 5.9 | 6.6 |
| TO Marg | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Before the tournament began, we issued our list of which teams had national championship resumes. On the day before the release of all the stats, we mentioned Connecticut, because the Huskies had one of the top two resumes in the criteria. Then, we did something we wish we could do over–we believed that maybe this could be Purdue’s year to break their losing curse. At the same time, we warned you about the Big Ten and their style of play not being conducive to winning in the Big Dance, and we mentioned that disciples of Gene Keady played the wrong style of ball to win in late March. When Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson, it was precisely their inability to force turnovers and get cheap baskets that cost them.
Some of you did follow our secondary advice and went with Connecticut to win the Championship. If you did, then you may still be alive in your bracket pools. We won’t take credit for picking UConn, as they were our secondary pick, but we will kick ourselves all year if the Huskies indeed win it all, since we had been talking about them having a championship resume as far back as late January.
Miami isn’t chopped liver. In fact, ACC teams are the polar opposite of Big Ten teams. The teams in the ACC know how to score quickly and score with cheap baskets. The Hurricanes can force turnovers on UConn and score fast break points. The U has a national championship offense, but their defense does not meet the criteria. UConn has both a national championship offense and defense. Miami’s principle liability is their weakness against preventing shots in the paint. UConn should get a few too many close-in shots in this game and will be more consistent with their offense.
UConn did not win either their regular conference or conference tournament championship, and they were not ranked in the preseason, two things that most national champions have done. UConn has twice won national championships in the 21st Century when they were somewhat of an outlier. The last time they did this, it was when they handily defeated long shot Butler. If they beat Miami, they will be playing another long shot Monday Night.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 