PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Final Four

Saturday, April 2, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Duke	North Carolina	3.8
Kansas	Villanova	2.0

Bracketnomics

Team	O-Eff	D-Eff	SOS	37+ 3pt	OReb%	-45% vs. 2pt	FT Rate 37	R + T New Rate	Old R+T
Duke	1	45	58.9	37.0	31.6	46.6	28.6	3.6	12.3
North Carolina	18	39	59.3	36.1	31.0	47.5	30.1	10.1	16.7
Kansas	7	18	61.8	35.5	33.1	47.0	32.9	6.2	13.8
Villanova	9	17	61.4	35.7	31.1	48.0	30.1	4.1	10.9

Duke vs. North Carolina

For so many years, there was a chance that the two two rivals in college basketball would meet in the Final Four.

Personally, in 1982, I held 4 tickets to the Mideast Regional at Vanderbilt University when the NCAA Selection Committee had placed Kentucky and Louisville on a collision course in the second round after Kentucky dismissed Middle Tennessee State in the first round. The two Bluegrass rivals had not met for 25 years, and here they were just two days away from the most colossal game in the tournament since Houston and UCLA played in 1968. Alas, tiny MTSU upset Kentucky, and the value of those four tickets went from new car purchase to nice dinner purchase.

What does that have to do with this game in New Orleans? Absolutely nothing, but it allows me to stall a bit. This game is not easy to figure. Duke has the overall most efficient offense in college basketball, while Carolina is in the top 20 in offensive efficiency but since February, the Tar Heels are in the top five. Carolina’s defense is marginally better than Duke’s, but it isn’t all that much. Carolina has a little better offense at forcing fouls on the defense and a little better R+T Rating, but how much extra do you give Duke for trying to send Coach K out a winner?

In 1975, Kentucky clearly had better overall talent and should have beaten UCLA, but the Bruins played close to their top potential for the retiring Coach Wooden. The last time these two teams played, Carolina spoiled Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Additionally, the Tar Heels did not win the regular season or conference tournament in the ACC, while Duke won the regular season title. PiRate Bracketnomics values a conference champion over a non-champion in tossup games, so the edge goes to Duke to make it to the Championship Game on Monday night.

Kansas vs. Villanova

The PiRate Bracketnomics System correctly picked Kansas and Villanova to make the Final Four before the tournament began. We also picked Kansas to cut down the nets in New Orleans, so you know who we are selecting in this game.

Now, let’s look at why. First, Villanova is missing a key player in Justin Moore from an already small playing rotation. Now for the numbers. Kansas has a very slim advantage in offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding rate, defensive 2-point field goal percentage, and R+T Ratings. Strength of schedule is basically dead even, so with the injury to Moore, KU becomes a 4 or 5 point favorite.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 27, 2022

Sunday, March 27, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
North Carolina	Saint Peter’s	9.6
Kansas	Miami (Fla.)	8.8

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 26, 2022

Saturday, March 26, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Villanova	Houston	-2.1
Duke	Arkansas	3.7
Southern Utah	Portland	3.7

Elite 8 Bracketnomics Analysis

Team	O-Eff	D-Eff	SOS	37+ 3pt	OReb%	-45% vs. 2pt	FT Rate 37	R + T New Rate	Old R+T
Villanova	8	30	60.8	0.360	31.2	48.6	0.30	6.5	11.6
Houston	10	10	56.5	0.345	37.7	44.0	0.29	14.1	22.0
Duke	4	43	58.2	0.370	31.9	46.4	0.29	3.9	12.3
Arkansas	54	14	58.2	0.304	29.9	46.5	0.38	6.9	12.7
North Carolina	20	42	59.0	0.364	30.7	48.0	0.30	9.6	16.0
Saint Peter’s	225	28	49.5	0.355	32.1	43.5	0.38	4.6	8.9
Kansas	6	26	61.8	0.360	33.5	47.1	0.32	6.2	13.3
Miami (Fla.)	18	121	57.9	0.344	22.7	53.2	0.29	-5.4	-3.0

Villanova vs. Houston: Houston has a more perfect Final Four Bracketnomics resume, but there is a caveat. The Cougars accumulated some of this resume with two former starters that were both lost for the season due to injuries.

Villanova has a better schedule strength and a better three-point shooting percentage, while Houston holds the R+T edge. It is so close to call, but the general rule of thumb is to go with the better R+T rating in tossup games. By a thin hair, the pick is Houston to repeat as a Final Four team.

Duke vs. Arkansas: It appears as if the Atlantic Coast Conference was quite underrated this year. Three of the Elite 8 are ACC teams. Duke showed a lot of toughness beating the number one defensive team in the nation Thursday night. Of course, Arkansas beat the number one team overall, and it did not look like a fluke.

Duke is close to having an ideal Final Four resume. The key here is that the Blue Devils have a considerably better Final Four resume than Arkansas, and they add two intangibles. First, they are playing for Coach K to go out a champion like John Wooden. Second, the ACC may need a few extra points in schedule strength. Duke is the choice.

North Carolina vs. Saint Peter’s: What we have here is a total monkey wrench in the Bracketnomics system. Saint Peter’s is not supposed to be here. I am not saying that no mid-major team should ever be in the Elite 8. It’s just that the Peacocks, with this resume, do not fit like past mid-major teams like George Mason, Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler. If Saint Peter’s makes the Final Four, the Bracketnomics System will be a total failure, because there isn’t any justification that says the Peacocks should make the Final Four.

How did this tiny commuter school located on both sides of what was once the Lincoln Highway in Jersey City get to the Elite 8? Beating Kentucky was “The Mouse That Roared.” This was not one of those all freshmen teams with no tournament experience. Beating Murray State wasn’t as surprising as we thought the Racers had failed to beat a really quality team. Beating Purdue was almost as shocking as beating Kentucky, but we have noted that Gene Keady and his disciples have never had great success in the NCAA Tournamnent, as Steve Lavin and Kevin Stallings also had issues with teams trying to win half-court possessions at the expense of forcing the issue and accumulating great R+T rating scores.

Now comes a North Carolina team that at one point this year lost to Kentucky by more than 30 points and looked like an NIT team but all of a sudden caught fire and slaughtered Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Coach K’s final home game. North Carolina looked like a national championship team in the Sweet 16, and Hubert Davis must be given all kinds of credit for guiding the Tar Heels from probable NIT to probable Final Four. I am going with the Tar Heels to set up the incredible top rivalry game in the Final Four. Saint Peter’s has a slightly better defensive efficiency, and their guards are incredibly deceptively better than a Metro Atlantic team, but the Peacocks’ schedule strength does not measure up to Final Four standards. What we’re looking at is an allowance horse champion trying to beat a Grade 1 Stakes winner in the Florida Derby with a trip to Churchill Downs on the line. For the sake of this system, the pick is North Carolina.

Kansas vs. Miami (Fla): After Selection Sunday, when we presented our massive Bracketnomics release, Kansas was our choice to go all the way and win the National Championship. The Jayhawks are halfway to the prize, but KU hasn’t won their games as convincingly as I hoped. Now the Jayhawks face a team that can attack them in a different way with Larranaga’s Runts. Miami is another team that the Bracketnomics say should not be here. Their R+T rating is the absolute lowest in R+T history of any Elite 8 team. In fact, they were not supposed to make it past the Round of 32 with this R+T rating.

In every facet that matters, KU has the advantage. This game should be a double-digit win for the Jayhawks, but with KU not clicking on all cylinders and Miami playing at its peak in the obviously underrated ACC, this game looks painfully closer than it should be. The pick is Kansas, but it may be one of those ugly wins.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Friday, March 25, 2022

Friday, March 25, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Purdue	Saint Peter’s	13.1
Kansas	Providence	7.9
UCLA	North Carolina	4.1
Miami (Fla.)	Iowa St.	0.2

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 24, 2022

Thursday, March 24, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Gonzaga	Arkansas	10.2
Villanova	Michigan	4.0
Duke	Texas Tech	-0.2
Arizona	Houston	1.3

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 17, 2022

Thursday, March 17, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Colorado St.	Michigan	-2.1
Providence	South Dakota St.	2.9
Boise St.	Memphis	-1.9
Baylor	Norfolk St.	20.2
Tennessee	Longwood	16.6
Iowa	Richmond	10.2
Gonzaga	Georgia St.	23.1
North Carolina	Marquette	1.9
Connecticut	New Mexico St.	9.0
Kentucky	Saint Peter’s	17.3
Saint Mary’s	Indiana	2.3
San Diego St.	Creighton	2.3
Arkansas	Vermont	4.2
Murray St.	San Francisco	-2.3
UCLA	Akron	14.9
Kansas	Texas Southern	18.7
Fresno St.	Eastern Washington	11.8

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Wednesday, March 16, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Wright St.	Bryant	0.7
Rutgers	Notre Dame	-1.6
Wake Forest	Towson	7.0
Toledo	Dayton	0.3
Virginia	Mississippi St.	-0.1
SMU	Nicholls St.	14.6
Saint Louis	Northern Iowa	5.1
BYU	Long Beach St.	11.8
Florida	Iona	7.1
Coastal Carolina	Maryland Eastern Shore	12.5
Youngstown St.	Morgan St.	5.5
South Alabama	Southeast Louisiana	10.7
Florida Gulf Coast	Detroit	3.6
Maryland Baltimore Co.	Merrimack	5.5
Southern Utah	Kent St.	1.6

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Tuesday, March 15, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Texas Southern	Texas A&M–CC	3.9
Wyoming	Indiana	-4.6
VCU	Princeton	7.3
Vanderbilt	Belmont	2.4
Oklahoma	Missouri St.	5.7
North Texas	Texas St.	8.1
Xavier	Cleveland St.	13.7
Texas A&M	Alcorn St.	19.1
Utah St.	Oregon	3.4
Washington St.	Santa Clara	4.3
Colorado	St. Bonaventure	4.4
Appalachian St.	USC Upstate	10.2
UTEP	Western Illinois	6.6

Coming Around 4 PM EDT–Bracketnomics 2022, The Analysis to help you pick your brackets

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 13, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
American Athletic Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Fort Worth, TX
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Houston	Memphis	4.8
Atlantic 10 Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Washington, D.C.
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Davidson	Richmond	2.5
Big Ten Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Indianapolis
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Iowa	Purdue	-0.2
Ivy League–CHAMPIONSHIP
Boston
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Princeton	Yale	2.5
Southeastern Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Tampa
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Tennessee	Texas A&M	7.8

Final Bracketology coming this afternoon after SEC Championship Game Concludes

After last night’s late games on the West Coast concluded, our Bracketology hopefuls shrunk to 70 teams. We still have to eliminate two teams from our field of 68 and then do a final seeding after the conclusion of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The outcome of that game will most definitely affect the field, possibly changing who plays an opening round “play-in” game in Dayton.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/14/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Auburn	Arizona	Kentucky
2	Kansas	Purdue	Baylor	Duke
3	Villanova	Texas Tech	Providence	Wisconsin
4	Illinois	UCLA	Tennessee	Houston
5	Texas	Michigan St.	Marquette	Alabama
6	LSU	Ohio St.	Xavier	Connecticut
7	Arkansas	USC	Iowa	Saint Mary’s
8	Seton Hall	Wyoming	Colorado St.	TCU
9	Wake Forest	Boise St.	Iowa St.	Murray St.
10	Loyola (Chi.)	Indiana	Notre Dame	Miami (Fla.)
11	San Francisco	Oklahoma	Davidson	North Carolina
12	North Texas	Iona	Michigan	BYU	Memphis	Belmont
13	Toledo	New Mexico St.	Chattanooga	South Dakota St.
14	Vermont	Wagner	Liberty	Montana St.	Oregon
15	Cleveland St.	Yale	Texas St.	Long Beach St.
16	Colgate	UNC Wilmington	Longwood	Norfolk St.	New Orleans	Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69	Creighton
70	San Diego St.
71	SMU
72	Oregon
73	Florida
74	Rutgers
75	Kansas St.
76	Saint Louis

PiRate Ratings Bracketology is an estimate of what we believe the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will do and not our own personal beliefs on which 68 teams deserve a spot in the field. If we chose the at-large teams, no power conference team in last place or four games under .500 in their league would be considered for the Big Dance, while teams like Rutgers and Virginia, which have proven themselves in conference play and hailing from a Power Conference would be given preference over teams behind them in the conference standings.