The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 31, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Final Four

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San Diego St.Florida Atlantic1.3
ConnecticutMiami (Fla)6.7

Bracketnomics Comparisons

StatFAUSDSU
O-RTG2475
D-RTG304
SOS52.258.9
3-Pt36.534.7
O-Reb31.732.0
2PT%D44.749.4
FTR29.232.6
R+T Rate8.47.8
Old R+T16.513.5
Marg12.98.6
Win Strk20 & 118 & 6
Pre25NOYES
ChampYESYES
Coach Exp03: 0-3
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12NONO
DBLFIG31
OReb31.732.0
OStl9.210.1
OTurn15.714.9
DReb24.825.7
DStl8.59.2
DTurn15.915.1
Reb Marg6.24.5
Stl/G6.56.8
D Stl5.86.2
TO Marg0.61.3

One of these Cinderella teams will become the next Butler, playing a big-time team for the National Championship Monday night. We don’t have this as a factor, but a CUSA team won the CBI, and a CUSA team beat another CUSA team in the NIT Championship Game. Could it be that CUSA is a lot better than the numbers show? If so, then how much more does Florida Atlantic deserve to be given credit?

The efficiency numbers are outside the range of a national champion, so if one of these teams cuts down the nets Monday night, it will throw a monkey wrench into this system. As for this semifinal game, FAU has the closer championship resume with a much better offensive efficiency rating. The Owls also appear to be the superior inside defense team in this system. Even though the PiRate Ratings spread favors SDSU, the Bracketnomics Criteria says FAU will win this game, and it might eventually be by a margin in double figures.


StatMiamiUConn
O-RTG53
D-RTG10411
SOS56.759.8
3-Pt36.936.3
O-Reb31.738.5
2PT%D51.645.0
FTR31.030.5
R+T Rate5.814.9
Old R+T10.821.4
Marg7.714.4
Win Strk9 & 714 & 6
Pre25NONO
ChampCoNo
Coach Exp10 & 1FF4: 0-4
3 UpperNONO
F/C 20-12NOYES
DBLFIG43
OReb31.738.5
OStl10.59.2
OTurn14.115.7
DReb28.425.7
DStl8.59.6
DTurn15.716.5
Reb Marg2.99.4
Stl/G7.36.3
D Stl5.96.6
TO Marg1.20.0

Before the tournament began, we issued our list of which teams had national championship resumes. On the day before the release of all the stats, we mentioned Connecticut, because the Huskies had one of the top two resumes in the criteria. Then, we did something we wish we could do over–we believed that maybe this could be Purdue’s year to break their losing curse. At the same time, we warned you about the Big Ten and their style of play not being conducive to winning in the Big Dance, and we mentioned that disciples of Gene Keady played the wrong style of ball to win in late March. When Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson, it was precisely their inability to force turnovers and get cheap baskets that cost them.

Some of you did follow our secondary advice and went with Connecticut to win the Championship. If you did, then you may still be alive in your bracket pools. We won’t take credit for picking UConn, as they were our secondary pick, but we will kick ourselves all year if the Huskies indeed win it all, since we had been talking about them having a championship resume as far back as late January.

Miami isn’t chopped liver. In fact, ACC teams are the polar opposite of Big Ten teams. The teams in the ACC know how to score quickly and score with cheap baskets. The Hurricanes can force turnovers on UConn and score fast break points. The U has a national championship offense, but their defense does not meet the criteria. UConn has both a national championship offense and defense. Miami’s principle liability is their weakness against preventing shots in the paint. UConn should get a few too many close-in shots in this game and will be more consistent with their offense.

UConn did not win either their regular conference or conference tournament championship, and they were not ranked in the preseason, two things that most national champions have done. UConn has twice won national championships in the 21st Century when they were somewhat of an outlier. The last time they did this, it was when they handily defeated long shot Butler. If they beat Miami, they will be playing another long shot Monday Night.

March 26, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 26, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
San Diego St.Creighton-1.7
TexasMiami (Fla)5.3

For Bracketnomics Comparisons, check out yesterday’s publication: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2023/03/25/pirate-ratings-college-basketball-saturday-march-25-2023/

March 25, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Saturday, March 25, 2023



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Kansas St.Florida Atlantic0.8
ConnecticutGonzaga1.2

Bracketnomics Comparisons

StatSDSUCreighton
O-RTG7022
D-RTG414
SOS57.959.3
3-Pt34.935.8
O-Reb32.025.2
2PT%D49.345.9
FTR33.328.6
R+T Rate9.00.1
Old R+T13.78.6
Marg8.88.3
Win Strk7 & 68 & 6
Pre25YESYES
ChampYESNo
Coach Exp3: 0-310: 1S16
3 UpperYESNO
F/C 20-12NOYES
DBLFIG15
OReb32.025.2
OStl10.47.2
OTurn15.114.9
DReb25.723.2
DStl9.38.6
DTurn17.212.4
Reb Marg4.63.9
Stl/G7.05.1
D Stl6.36.0
TO Marg1.3-1.8

Creighton is the slight favorite in this criteria, but it isn’t by much. If not for overall strength of schedule, the Aztecs would have the advantage due to better steal rate and turnover rate, the two criteria that are showing up to be more important this year than an average year. SDSU beat Alabama, because they jumped the passing lanes and won the R+T battle with ease.


StatFAUKansas St.
O-RTG2635
D-RTG2927
SOS50.558.5
3-Pt36.534.0
O-Reb31.430.4
2PT%D44.749.1
FTR28.936.2
R+T Rate8.71.6
Old R+T16.06.4
Marg13.26.6
Win Strk20 & 109 & 6
Pre25NONO
ChampYESNo
Coach Exp00
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12NOYES
DBLFIG33
OReb31.430.4
OStl9.511.0
OTurn14.517.0
DReb25.129.9
DStl8.210.2
DTurn15.918.0
Reb Marg5.71.4
Stl/G6.57.9
D Stl5.67.3
TO Marg0.90.9

Florida Atlantic overcame Tennessee’s inside advantage in the Sweet 16, but we have seen the Vols’ inconsistent play all year and don’t think it was entirely the Owls’ defense that eliminated Tennessee’s biggest advantage. Kansas State also has the inside advantage, by even more than that enjoyed by UT. This looks like the end of a great mid-major run for FAU, as Kansas State has enough advantage here to make their first Final Four since Tex Winter and his triple post offense guided the Wildcats to the 1964 Final Four.


StatMiamiTexas
O-RTG615
D-RTG10410
SOS56.160.0
3-Pt37.034.5
O-Reb31.928.2
2PT%D51.547.3
FTR30.230.7
R+T Rate6.13.7
Old R+T11.08.0
Marg7.710.6
Win Strk9 & 77 & 6
Pre25NOYES
ChampCoYES
Coach Exp10 & 1FF0
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12NONO
DBLFIG44
OReb31.928.2
OStl10.411.2
OTurn14.014.3
DReb28.429.1
DStl8.58.1
DTurn15.719.5
Reb Marg3.0-0.3
Stl/G7.27.9
D Stl5.95.7
TO Marg1.34.3

On paper, this is an exciting tossup that could go down to the last minute. However, there is a huge question mark in this game. Texas may not have the services of 6 foot 9 inch forward Dylan Disu, who has been the Longhorns’ best player down the stretch. They dismissed Xavier with Disu playing less than a minute before further injuring his leg.

If Disu cannot play, Miami can ramp up the tempo in this game and wear Texas down. Without Disu, Texas has a major liability on the glass, and they will have to force a lot of turnovers to make up for Miami’s potential extra shot attempts.

Jim Larranaga has taken a team to the Final Four once before, and he did so with a low major team beating the overall number one seed to get there. Miami made it this far last year. It looks favorable for Hurricane Warnings to go up in Houston next week.


StatConnecticutGonzaga
O-RTG31
D-RTG1373
SOS58.557.5
3-Pt36.438.6
O-Reb38.931.8
2PT%D45.050.3
FTR30.933.6
R+T Rate15.011.4
Old R+T21.218.8
Marg14.013.9
Win Strk14 & 612 & 11
Pre25NOYES
ChampNoYES
Coach Exp4: 0-422 & 2FF
3 UpperNOYES
F/C 20-12YESYES
DBLFIG34
OReb38.931.8
OStl9.310.2
OTurn15.913.1
DReb25.925.0
DStl9.87.3
DTurn16.616.5
Reb Marg9.45.9
Stl/G6.47.4
D Stl6.75.3
TO Marg-0.12.6

As far as the Bracketnomics are concerned, this may be the real National Championship Game. The two best offenses left in the field and two of the three best overall face off. But, UConn also has a top 20 defense, which is how most National Champions look–top 10 offense and top 20 defense.

Still, this game is not a slam dunk easy win for UConn. Gonzaga has a coach with a lot more tournament experience with two recent Final Fours and with players that have played in the National Championship on this roster. Gonzaga was a pre-season top 25 team, while the Huskies were not, and almost every past national champion was ranked in the pre-season.

The one stat that really concerns us is the turnover margin. As we told you above, turnover margin and steals have been considerably more important this year than an average year. UConn has a negative turnover margin and has a propensity to be a little too gracious throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys. If Gonzaga can get 8 or more steals and force 14 or more turnovers in this game, they will likely win. If the Huskies can limit Bulldog steals to 6 or less, and they commit 12 or fewer turnovers, they will win. If it’s somewhere in between, this game could come down to a last second shot or even overtime.

March 24, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Friday, March 24, 2023

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AlabamaSan Diego St.7.6
HoustonMiami (Fla)7.7
CreightonPrinceton10.6
TexasXavier3.2

March 23, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Thursday, March 23, 2023

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Kansas St.Michigan St.0.7
ConnecticutArkansas4.3
TennesseeFlorida Atlantic5.8
UCLAGonzaga1.3

March 19, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 19, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:39 am
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BaylorCreighton-0.3
ColoradoUtah Valley4.7
ConnecticutSaint Mary’s4.2
DuquesneRice5.5
Eastern KentuckyCleveland St.0.8
Florida AtlanticFairleigh Dickinson18.7
GonzagaTCU4.4
IndianaMiami (Fla)1.8
Kansas St.Kentucky-0.2
MarquetteMichigan St.3.2
North TexasSam Houston St.3.4
Oklahoma St.Eastern Washington11.5
OregonCentral Florida4.6
StetsonMilwaukee2.7
Tarleton St.Radford1.1
UABMorehead St.16.0
WisconsinLiberty2.9
XavierPittsburgh5.4

March 18, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Saturday, March 18, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:04 am
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AlabamaMaryland7.7
CharlotteWestern Carolina6.4
HofstraCincinnati-1.1
HoustonAuburn6.3
Indiana St.USC Upstate10.7
KansasArkansas2.7
MissouriPrinceton0.0
San Diego St.Furman6.5
San Jose St.Southern Indiana9.4
Southern UtahNorth Alabama8.9
TennesseeDuke3.8
TexasPenn St.6.8
UCLANorthwestern26.7
VanderbiltMichigan0.1

March 16, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Thursday, March 16, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:02 am
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AlabamaTexas A&M-CC24.2
ArizonaPrinceton13.5
ArkansasIllinois1.5
DukeOral Roberts5.1
HoustonNorthern Kentucky19.7
IowaAuburn-2.2
KansasHoward19.6
MarylandWest Virginia-0.6
MissouriUtah St.-2.5
NorthwesternBoise St.-0.5
San Diego St.Charleston5.1
TennesseeLouisiana13.3
TexasColgate13.9
Texas A&MPenn St.2.4
UCLAUNC Asheville18.5
VirginiaFurman5.6

March 15, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 15, 2023

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Texas SouthernFairleigh Dickinson1.4
ClemsonMorehead St.17.0
FloridaCentral Florida4.5
Youngstown St.Oklahoma St.-6.2
North TexasAlcorn St.16.3
CincinnatiVirginia Tech4.8
Santa ClaraSam Houston St..1.8
Arizona St.Nevada-0.1
New MexicoUtah Valley5.3
OregonUC Irvine8.8

March 14, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Tuesday, March 14, 2023

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Texas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.4.3
MichiganToledo7.2
RutgersHofstra9.1
UABSouthern Miss.7.9
LibertyVillanova1.8
VanderbiltYale2.9
Mississippi St.Pittsburgh1.8
WisconsinBradley4.5
ColoradoSeton Hall3.3
Washington St.Eastern Washington9.7
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