The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 31, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 1-5, 2016

The College Football Playoff Committee doles out its first playoff ranking tomorrow, and it looks like their job became easy enough that they can come in late to the office. With losses to Baylor, West Virginia, and Nebraska, and wins by Clemson and Washington, four undefeated Power 5 Conference teams remain. Obviously, the first ranking will include Alabama, Michigan, Clemson, and Washington as its first quartet. There is some talk that Texas A&M should be in the mix, but including a one-loss SEC team over an unbeaten Washington, Michigan, or Clemson, would draw enough ire from the non-SEC football world that the committee would be barbecued in the media.

In the end, there is only one way to hold a proper playoff. The playoffs should be decided the same way they are decided in every sport that has a playoff–on the field. No committee should be needed to figure out which teams to invite. Politics should have no bearing on the process. It is obvious that if it comes down to it, a one-loss team like Ohio State, Alabama, or Clemson will always trump a one-loss team like Washington, Baylor, or Louisville.

The champions of the Power 5 conferences should receive automatic bids to an 8-team playoff. Or, the winners of the conference championship games should receive automatic bids. That would mean, until the Big 12 expanded to at least 12 teams and implemented a championship game, their conference would not receive an automatic bid. Also, no independent team could be eligible for the playoffs, so Notre Dame, BYU, Army, and U Mass would have to find a league or else never be eligible for a playoff spot.

As for the other three spots in the playoffs, take the Group of 5 and award the top conference champion overall, the sixth playoff spot. That would be Western Michigan as of now.  Of the remaining four conference champions, give them spots 7 through 10 and have them play a preliminary “play-in” round to earn the 7th and 8th spots in the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at this in action. First, the Big 12 would have to expand by at least two teams to retain their automatic bid status. For the sake of argument, let’s add Notre Dame and BYU as the 11th and 12th teams. Army and U Mass could go to Conference USA.

Imagine for a moment that these moves have occurred. Now, using what has happened so far this year, let’s say that Clemson wins the ACC, Alabama wins the SEC, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Oklahoma wins the Big 12, and Washington wins the Pac-12. Western Michigan goes 13-0 to win the MAC and become the best Group of 5 team. The remaining four Group of 5 Champions are South Florida in the AAC, Western Kentucky in CUSA, Troy in the Sun Belt, and San Diego State in the Mountain West.

In the preliminary round, #7 seed South Florida would host #10 seed Troy, while #8 seed San Diego State would host #9 seed Western Kentucky. Western Michigan would be the #6 seed; Oklahoma #5, Washington #4, Clemson #3, Michigan #2, and Alabama #1.

After the preliminary round, #1 Alabama would host the winner of the SDSU-WKU game; #2 Michigan would host the winner of the South Florida-Troy game; #3 Clemson would host #6 Western Michigan; and #4 Washington would host #5 Oklahoma.

The debate would revolve around teams like Troy and Western Kentucky getting spots in playoffs, even if they were just preliminary rounds. But, this is the same thing that happens in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the champion of the #31 conference tournament gets an automatic bid, while a top ten team that does not win their league’s conference tournament does not receive an automatic bid.

In the end, the NCAA will never implement such a plan, because fairness is not part of their plan. A fair profit is all that matters, so for now, the big powers will get the benefit of the doubt for financial reasons only.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.9 129.1 135.8 133.6
2 Michigan 128.7 126.4 128.7 127.9
3 Washington 128.8 121.6 128.6 126.3
4 Louisville 127.2 122.5 127.1 125.6
5 Clemson 126.7 119.5 125.6 123.9
6 LSU 124.8 119.8 124.4 123.0
7 Auburn 123.7 121.2 123.9 122.9
8 Ohio St. 121.9 121.5 122.2 121.9
9 Oklahoma 120.9 119.4 120.6 120.3
10 Virginia Tech 119.1 117.7 119.5 118.8
11 Texas A&M 117.5 115.5 117.3 116.8
12 Florida St. 119.2 112.7 118.3 116.7
13 North Carolina 118.4 112.0 118.3 116.2
14 Colorado 117.5 113.0 117.3 116.0
15 Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.2 115.0 115.5
16 USC 117.7 112.9 115.5 115.4
17 Wisconsin 115.4 113.4 116.1 115.0
18 Florida 114.7 116.6 113.2 114.8
19 Tennessee 115.5 112.7 114.7 114.3
20 Baylor 113.8 114.3 114.2 114.1
21 Pittsburgh 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
22 Miami 115.7 110.0 115.0 113.6
23 Western Michigan 112.9 111.8 114.6 113.1
24 Stanford 114.6 108.6 114.0 112.4
25 Penn St. 112.0 113.2 111.4 112.2
26 Nebraska 113.2 110.2 113.1 112.2
27 Ole Miss 114.3 109.2 113.0 112.2
28 Washington St. 112.4 109.5 112.2 111.4
29 West Virginia 111.8 110.8 111.3 111.3
30 Iowa 112.1 109.5 111.9 111.2
31 Notre Dame 112.7 108.8 111.3 110.9
32 Texas 110.3 111.4 109.7 110.5
33 UCLA 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5
34 Houston 109.3 108.2 110.7 109.4
35 Utah 111.7 106.2 110.1 109.3
36 Northwestern 110.4 106.4 109.4 108.7
37 South Florida 108.8 107.0 109.3 108.4
38 Arkansas 109.9 105.2 108.0 107.7
39 BYU 109.6 104.1 109.2 107.6
40 Georgia Tech 109.2 105.3 108.1 107.5
41 Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
42 Kansas St. 106.6 108.9 106.5 107.3
43 Mississippi St. 107.8 106.3 106.7 106.9
44 TCU 106.5 108.0 105.6 106.7
45 Boise St. 105.7 106.9 106.7 106.4
46 Oregon 107.1 105.3 106.3 106.2
47 San Diego St. 105.6 104.2 107.6 105.8
48 Minnesota 105.8 104.7 105.3 105.3
49 Western Kentucky 105.5 102.9 106.8 105.1
50 Temple 104.6 103.9 105.0 104.5
51 Tulsa 103.4 104.8 104.1 104.1
52 North Carolina St. 104.9 102.3 104.5 103.9
53 Texas Tech 104.6 103.8 103.1 103.9
54 Michigan St. 104.5 103.9 102.8 103.7
55 Indiana 102.9 104.8 102.5 103.4
56 Virginia 104.3 101.5 103.8 103.2
57 Arizona St. 103.9 102.8 102.5 103.1
58 Maryland 102.3 104.7 100.8 102.6
59 Syracuse 104.0 100.8 102.6 102.5
60 Navy 102.6 101.7 102.4 102.3
61 Toledo 101.5 101.8 102.0 101.8
62 California 104.6 97.8 102.2 101.5
63 Duke 101.7 101.6 101.0 101.4
64 Wake Forest 101.6 100.4 102.0 101.4
65 Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
66 Appalachian St. 100.4 100.7 102.4 101.2
67 Vanderbilt 101.6 98.4 100.3 100.1
68 Memphis 100.7 98.8 99.6 99.7
69 South Carolina 99.7 99.3 99.3 99.5
70 Boston College 99.9 98.8 99.4 99.4
71 Arizona 99.6 97.4 98.1 98.4
72 Iowa St. 98.6 98.2 97.9 98.2
73 Louisiana Tech 96.9 98.8 98.6 98.1
74 Missouri 97.9 97.6 97.2 97.6
75 Central Florida 95.9 97.3 96.6 96.6
76 Cincinnati 96.4 96.8 96.4 96.6
77 Middle Tennessee 95.8 96.7 96.3 96.3
78 Army 92.8 99.8 94.9 95.8
79 New Mexico 94.8 96.9 95.7 95.8
80 Central Michigan 95.0 96.9 95.4 95.8
81 Air Force 94.8 96.2 94.8 95.3
82 Troy 93.0 97.7 95.0 95.3
83 Northern Illinois 94.1 95.5 95.4 95.0
84 SMU 94.4 93.9 96.5 95.0
85 Oregon St. 96.7 92.2 95.3 94.7
86 East Carolina 94.0 95.5 94.3 94.6
87 Illinois 95.0 91.6 94.0 93.6
88 Ohio 91.3 97.1 92.0 93.5
89 Wyoming 92.2 92.3 93.2 92.6
90 Connecticut 92.4 91.3 92.0 91.9
91 Southern Mississippi 91.6 91.9 92.0 91.9
92 Arkansas St. 90.6 92.6 92.3 91.8
93 Utah St. 91.0 93.6 90.8 91.8
94 Colorado St. 90.0 91.8 90.9 90.9
95 Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
96 Rutgers 92.0 89.6 90.6 90.8
97 Georgia Southern 88.2 88.6 90.0 89.0
98 Kent St. 87.2 89.0 87.9 88.1
99 Miami (O) 86.8 87.7 88.2 87.6
100 Old Dominion 86.2 89.7 86.7 87.5
101 Ball St. 85.4 87.9 86.5 86.6
102 Akron 84.2 89.9 85.6 86.6
103 Tulane 84.9 88.9 85.6 86.5
104 Nevada 85.3 87.7 85.9 86.3
105 UNLV 85.1 88.2 85.2 86.2
106 South Alabama 83.5 90.1 84.8 86.1
107 Eastern Michigan 85.1 87.4 85.4 86.0
108 Hawaii 85.9 84.9 85.7 85.5
109 Georgia St. 82.7 87.4 84.6 84.9
110 UTSA 81.7 88.4 84.1 84.8
111 Marshall 82.8 86.4 83.7 84.3
112 Kansas 82.9 88.1 80.3 83.8
113 North Texas 81.7 84.8 82.5 83.0
114 Massachusetts 80.3 86.6 81.4 82.8
115 Bowling Green 82.4 82.8 82.4 82.5
116 San Jose St. 82.7 82.7 82.2 82.5
117 Idaho 79.5 84.8 81.1 81.8
118 Fresno St. 80.0 83.5 79.7 81.1
119 Florida International 79.1 83.7 79.3 80.7
120 UL-Lafayette 77.7 83.8 79.5 80.4
121 Rice 77.6 84.3 77.6 79.8
122 Buffalo 76.3 83.2 76.9 78.8
123 Florida Atlantic 74.1 78.8 77.0 76.6
124 Charlotte 73.7 79.0 74.4 75.7
125 UTEP 72.2 76.7 73.4 74.1
126 New Mexico St. 71.6 74.7 72.5 72.9
127 Texas St. 67.5 69.7 68.3 68.5
128 UL-Monroe 64.9 69.8 65.2 66.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Michigan
3 Clemson
4 Louisville
5 Washington
6 Texas A&M
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Western Michigan
10 Auburn
11 Nebraska
12 Florida
13 Oklahoma
14 Colorado
15 LSU
16 Washington St.
17 Penn St.
18 Virginia Tech
19 West Virginia
20 Florida St.
21 Boise St.
22 USC
23 North Carolina
24 Tennessee
25 Utah
26 Baylor
27 Houston
28 Stanford
29 South Florida
30 Oklahoma St.
31 Arkansas
32 Pittsburgh
33 Appalachian St.
34 San Diego St.
35 Tulsa
36 Troy
37 Minnesota
38 Iowa
39 Northwestern
40 BYU
41 Ole Miss
42 Temple
43 Georgia Tech
44 Kansas St.
45 Western Kentucky
46 Miami (Fla)
47 Navy
48 Kentucky
49 Wyoming
50 Toledo
51 Arizona St.
52 California
53 Texas Tech
54 UCLA
55 Oregon
56 Texas
57 Georgia
58 Maryland
59 Louisiana Tech
60 North Carolina St.
61 Indiana
62 Memphis
63 Middle Tennessee
64 Wake Forest
65 TCU
66 South Carolina
67 Central Florida
68 Vanderbilt
69 Syracuse
70 Air Force
71 Colorado St.
72 Mississippi St.
73 Southern Miss.
74 Notre Dame
75 New Mexico
76 SMU
77 Boston College
78 Ohio
79 Army
80 Oregon St.
81 Duke
82 Old Dominion
83 Central Michigan
84 Michigan St.
85 Akron
86 Georgia Southern
87 Cincinnati
88 Arizona
89 Eastern Michigan
90 East Carolina
91 Missouri
92 Idaho
93 Virginia
94 Arkansas St.
95 South Alabama
96 Utah St.
97 Illinois
98 North Texas
99 Hawaii
100 Rutgers
101 Northern Illinois
102 UTSA
103 Ball St.
104 Tulane
105 Connecticut
106 Kent St.
107 Purdue
108 Iowa St.
109 UL-Lafayette
110 Miami (O)
111 Georgia St.
112 UNLV
113 Nevada
114 San Jose St.
115 New Mexico St.
116 Marshall
117 Bowling Green
118 Charlotte
119 Massachusetts
120 UL-Monroe
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Kansas
123 Texas St.
124 Buffalo
125 UTEP
126 Rice
127 Fresno St.
128 Florida Atlantic

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 108.8 107.0 109.3 108.4
Temple 104.6 103.9 105.0 104.5
Central Florida 95.9 97.3 96.6 96.6
Cincinnati 96.4 96.8 96.4 96.6
East Carolina 94.0 95.5 94.3 94.6
Connecticut 92.4 91.3 92.0 91.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 109.3 108.2 110.7 109.4
Tulsa 103.4 104.8 104.1 104.1
Navy 102.6 101.7 102.4 102.3
Memphis 100.7 98.8 99.6 99.7
SMU 94.4 93.9 96.5 95.0
Tulane 84.9 88.9 85.6 86.5
         
AAC Averages 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.1
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.2 122.5 127.1 125.6
Clemson 126.7 119.5 125.6 123.9
Florida St. 119.2 112.7 118.3 116.7
North Carolina St. 104.9 102.3 104.5 103.9
Syracuse 104.0 100.8 102.6 102.5
Wake Forest 101.6 100.4 102.0 101.4
Boston College 99.9 98.8 99.4 99.4
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 119.1 117.7 119.5 118.8
North Carolina 118.4 112.0 118.3 116.2
Pittsburgh 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
Miami 115.7 110.0 115.0 113.6
Georgia Tech 109.2 105.3 108.1 107.5
Virginia 104.3 101.5 103.8 103.2
Duke 101.7 101.6 101.0 101.4
         
ACC Averages 111.9 108.4 111.4 110.6
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.9 119.4 120.6 120.3
Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.2 115.0 115.5
Baylor 113.8 114.3 114.2 114.1
West Virginia 111.8 110.8 111.3 111.3
Texas 110.3 111.4 109.7 110.5
Kansas St. 106.6 108.9 106.5 107.3
TCU 106.5 108.0 105.6 106.7
Texas Tech 104.6 103.8 103.1 103.9
Iowa St. 98.6 98.2 97.9 98.2
Kansas 82.9 88.1 80.3 83.8
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.2
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 128.7 126.4 128.7 127.9
Ohio St. 121.9 121.5 122.2 121.9
Penn St. 112.0 113.2 111.4 112.2
Michigan St. 104.5 103.9 102.8 103.7
Indiana 102.9 104.8 102.5 103.4
Maryland 102.3 104.7 100.8 102.6
Rutgers 92.0 89.6 90.6 90.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 115.4 113.4 116.1 115.0
Nebraska 113.2 110.2 113.1 112.2
Iowa 112.1 109.5 111.9 111.2
Northwestern 110.4 106.4 109.4 108.7
Minnesota 105.8 104.7 105.3 105.3
Illinois 95.0 91.6 94.0 93.6
Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
         
Big Ten Averages 107.7 106.5 107.1 107.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 105.5 102.9 106.8 105.1
Middle Tennessee 95.8 96.7 96.3 96.3
Old Dominion 86.2 89.7 86.7 87.5
Marshall 82.8 86.4 83.7 84.3
Florida International 79.1 83.7 79.3 80.7
Florida Atlantic 74.1 78.8 77.0 76.6
Charlotte 73.7 79.0 74.4 75.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.9 98.8 98.6 98.1
Southern Mississippi 91.6 91.9 92.0 91.9
UTSA 81.7 88.4 84.1 84.8
North Texas 81.7 84.8 82.5 83.0
Rice 77.6 84.3 77.6 79.8
UTEP 72.2 76.7 73.4 74.1
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 87.9 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.7 108.8 111.3 110.9
BYU 109.6 104.1 109.2 107.6
Army 92.8 99.8 94.9 95.8
Massachusetts 80.3 86.6 81.4 82.8
         
Indep. Averages 98.9 99.8 99.2 99.3
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.3 97.1 92.0 93.5
Kent St. 87.2 89.0 87.9 88.1
Miami (O) 86.8 87.7 88.2 87.6
Akron 84.2 89.9 85.6 86.6
Bowling Green 82.4 82.8 82.4 82.5
Buffalo 76.3 83.2 76.9 78.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 112.9 111.8 114.6 113.1
Toledo 101.5 101.8 102.0 101.8
Central Michigan 95.0 96.9 95.4 95.8
Northern Illinois 94.1 95.5 95.4 95.0
Ball St. 85.4 87.9 86.5 86.6
Eastern Michigan 85.1 87.4 85.4 86.0
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.6 91.0 91.3
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 105.7 106.9 106.7 106.4
New Mexico 94.8 96.9 95.7 95.8
Air Force 94.8 96.2 94.8 95.3
Wyoming 92.2 92.3 93.2 92.6
Utah St. 91.0 93.6 90.8 91.8
Colorado St. 90.0 91.8 90.9 90.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 105.6 104.2 107.6 105.8
Nevada 85.3 87.7 85.9 86.3
UNLV 85.1 88.2 85.2 86.2
Hawaii 85.9 84.9 85.7 85.5
San Jose St. 82.7 82.7 82.2 82.5
Fresno St. 80.0 83.5 79.7 81.1
         
MWC Averages 91.1 92.5 91.5 91.7
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 128.8 121.6 128.6 126.3
Stanford 114.6 108.6 114.0 112.4
Washington St. 112.4 109.5 112.2 111.4
Oregon 107.1 105.3 106.3 106.2
California 104.6 97.8 102.2 101.5
Oregon St. 96.7 92.2 95.3 94.7
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colorado 117.5 113.0 117.3 116.0
USC 117.7 112.9 115.5 115.4
UCLA 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5
Utah 111.7 106.2 110.1 109.3
Arizona St. 103.9 102.8 102.5 103.1
Arizona 99.6 97.4 98.1 98.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 114.7 116.6 113.2 114.8
Tennessee 115.5 112.7 114.7 114.3
Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
Vanderbilt 101.6 98.4 100.3 100.1
South Carolina 99.7 99.3 99.3 99.5
Missouri 97.9 97.6 97.2 97.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 135.9 129.1 135.8 133.6
LSU 124.8 119.8 124.4 123.0
Auburn 123.7 121.2 123.9 122.9
Texas A&M 117.5 115.5 117.3 116.8
Ole Miss 114.3 109.2 113.0 112.2
Arkansas 109.9 105.2 108.0 107.7
Mississippi St. 107.8 106.3 106.7 106.9
         
SEC Averages 112.3 110.0 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 100.4 100.7 102.4 101.2
Troy 93.0 97.7 95.0 95.3
Arkansas St. 90.6 92.6 92.3 91.8
Georgia Southern 88.2 88.6 90.0 89.0
South Alabama 83.5 90.1 84.8 86.1
Georgia St. 82.7 87.4 84.6 84.9
Idaho 79.5 84.8 81.1 81.8
UL-Lafayette 77.7 83.8 79.5 80.4
New Mexico St. 71.6 74.7 72.5 72.9
Texas St. 67.5 69.7 68.3 68.5
UL-Monroe 64.9 69.8 65.2 66.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.8 85.5 83.2 83.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.3 110.0 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 111.9 108.4 111.4 110.6
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big 12 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.2
5 Big Ten 107.7 106.5 107.1 107.1
6 Independents 98.9 99.8 99.2 99.3
7 AAC 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.1
8 MWC 91.1 92.5 91.5 91.7
9 MAC 90.2 92.6 91.0 91.3
10 CUSA 84.5 87.9 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 81.8 85.5 83.2 83.5

 

 

This Week’s Games–November 1-5
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 1
Northern Illinois Bowling Green 14.7 15.7 16.4
Ball St. Western Michigan -24.5 -20.9 -25.1
         
Wednesday, November 2
Akron Toledo -15.3 -9.9 -14.4
         
Thursday, November 3
Ohio U Buffalo 18.0 16.9 18.1
Iowa St. Oklahoma -19.3 -18.2 -19.7
Georgia St. Arkansas St. -5.4 -2.7 -5.2
Colorado UCLA 10.3 7.3 10.8
         
Friday, November 4
Miami (O) Central Michigan -5.2 -6.2 -4.2
Connecticut Temple -9.2 -9.6 -10.0
Boise St. San Jose St. 26.0 27.2 27.5
         
Saturday, November 5
Boston College Louisville -24.3 -20.7 -24.7
Clemson Syracuse 25.7 21.7 26.0
Duke Virginia Tech -14.4 -13.1 -15.5
North Carolina St. Florida St. -11.3 -7.4 -10.8
North Carolina Georgia Tech 12.2 9.7 10.2
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 3.6 1.6 3.7
Washington St. Arizona 15.8 15.1 17.1
USC Oregon 13.6 10.6 12.2
California Washington -21.2 -20.8 -23.4
West Virginia Kansas 31.9 25.7 34.0
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. -5.6 -4.3 -5.5
Notre Dame (N) Navy 10.1 7.1 8.9
Army Air Force 1.0 6.6 3.1
Ole Miss Georgia Southern 29.1 23.6 26.0
Mississippi St. Texas A&M -6.7 -6.2 -7.6
Auburn Vanderbilt 25.1 25.8 26.6
Texas Tech Texas -3.2 -5.1 -4.1
Rutgers Indiana -8.4 -12.7 -9.4
Illinois Michigan St. -6.5 -9.3 -5.8
Northwestern Wisconsin -3.0 -5.0 -4.7
Middle Tennessee UTSA 17.1 11.3 15.2
Wake Forest Virginia -0.2 1.4 0.7
Rice Florida Atlantic 6.0 8.0 3.1
Colorado St. Fresno St. 13.0 11.3 14.2
Southern Miss. Charlotte 20.9 15.9 20.6
Baylor TCU 9.8 8.8 11.1
Stanford Oregon St. 20.9 19.4 21.7
Cincinnati BYU -10.2 -4.3 -9.8
Troy Massachusetts 15.7 14.1 16.6
Arkansas Florida -1.8 -8.4 -2.2
Michigan Maryland 29.4 28.7 30.9
Minnesota Purdue 17.0 17.5 17.8
Appalachian St. Texas St. 35.9 34.0 37.1
SMU Memphis -3.8 -2.4 -0.6
South Carolina Missouri 5.0 4.7 5.1
UL-Lafayette Idaho 0.8 2.0 1.4
UL-Monroe South Alabama -13.6 -18.3 -17.6
Central Florida Tulane 14.0 14.4 14.0
Western Kentucky Florida Int’l. 29.4 22.2 30.5
North Texas Louisiana Tech -12.2 -11.0 -13.1
Old Dominion Marshall 5.9 6.2 5.5
San Diego St. Hawaii 23.7 23.3 25.9
Penn St. Iowa 2.9 6.7 2.5
Kentucky Georgia -4 -2.4 -3.4
LSU Alabama -8 -6.3 -8.4
Tulsa East Carolina 12.4 12.3 12.8
Ohio St. Nebraska 11.7 14.3 12.1
New Mexico Nevada 12.5 12.2 12.8
Wyoming Utah St. 4.2 1.7 5.4

(N)–Game to be played in Jacksonville, FL

FBS vs. FCS Week 10  
Home Visitor PiRate
Tennessee Tennessee Tech 41
UTEP Houston Baptist 16

 

Bowl Projections

The bowl outlook took a major turn this past weekend with numerous upsets bringing multiple teams into the bowl discussions.  Let’s take a look at how each conference was affected.

Group of 5 Leagues

American Athletic Conference

South Florida recovered from its loss to Temple by beating Navy at its own game.  This now opens the door in the West for Tulsa, which beat Memphis to move into position to take the West if they win out.  Because the AAC does not slot bowl teams into specific bowls, it did not change much.  Houston with two losses is out of the NY6 Bowl picture for now.  The AAC has eight bowl tie-ins but appears headed to having just seven bowl eligible teams.  However, SMU is getting better and better every week, so the Mustangs could sneak in as the eighth eligible team.  For now, we are predicting that Cincinnati will not be bowl eligible.

Conference USA

Western Kentucky should win the East with Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion earning bowl bids from this division.  The West is up for grabs, but Louisiana Tech is starting to look like the team that will emerge as the division winner.  Southern Miss. and North Texas are still alive, and UTSA is a dark horse.  We see six bowl eligible teams emerging, which is perfect, since the league has six bowl tie-ins.

Independents

BYU is going to be bowl eligible and get the Poinsettia bid allotted to the Cougars.  With Army’s upset of Wake Forest, the Black Knights should get to seven wins and become bowl eligible.  Notre Dame still looks like a team on the outside.  The Fighting Irish might need to beat USC in the season finale to get to 6-6, and for now, we do not believe they can beat the Trojans.

Mid-American Conference

Western Michigan is now in the driver’s seat for the NY6 Bowl thanks to Wyoming’s win over Boise State.  The Broncos have a rather easy November schedule and figure to play a 7-5 or even 6-6 team in the MAC title game.

The East has become quite interesting.  While Ohio has the upper hand in the race, keep an eye on Miami of Ohio.  Miami has not figured in the race in years, but the Redhawks won at Eastern Michigan Saturday to move to 3-2 in the league.  If Miami wins out, and Ohio loses to Toledo and either Central Michigan or Akron, then Miami could be the division winner with a 6-6 overall mark.

The MAC will have at least seven bowl eligible teams, and they only have five bowl tie-ins.  Because WMU for now is slotted for the Cotton Bowl, there will be one surplus team to become an at-large invitee to another bowl.

Mountain West Conference

Boise State’s loss not only knocks them well back in the NY6 Bowl pecking order, the Broncos now need Wyoming to lose twice in order to get a trip to the MWC Championship Game.  It has been awhile since the Broncos have played at home in the bowl season, but we believe they will garner another bowl even if they do not win the league.

San Diego State is all but assured to win the West Division, and the Aztecs could be the only division team to gain bowl eligibility.  Hawaii’s loss at home to New Mexico means the Rainbow Warriors are probably looking at 6-7 at best.  At 6-7, UH would have preference over the 5-7 teams trying to gain alternate status to bowls.

Sun Belt

With 11 teams and just four bowl tie-ins, the SBC usually produces an extra bowl eligible team or two.  We believe two league teams will receive at-large bids this year.  Troy and Appalachian State are already bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern in good shape.  South Alabama and either Idaho or Louisiana-Lafayette should give the league a couple of at-large candidates.

Power 5 Leagues

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville in the Atlantic and North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh in the Coastal are assured of bowls, but after that, it is a jumbled race.  For now, we believe Miami, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech will become bowl eligible, but North Carolina State, Boston College, Syracuse, and Duke will not.  We also believe Duke may fall to 4-8, taking the Blue Devils out of the 5-7 bowl sweepstakes, where they hold the APR Ace card.  Boston College has a fat APR score and could get in at 5-7.  Overall, we see nine bowl teams from this league.  Because Clemson should get a playoff spot and Louisville is safe as a NY6 Bowl team, and because there is a chance that either North Carolina or Virginia Tech could sneak into the Cotton Bowl picture, this league will not supply all its contracted bowls with teams.

Big 12 Conference

With the two undefeated teams losing this past weekend, it is almost impossible now for a team from this league to make the Playoffs.  It is the price the Big 12 pays for not expanding (and as some believe because Texas says no expansion).  As of today, we have the league champion going to the Sugar Bowl, and no other team should earn an NY6 bid.  With Texas and Texas Tech winning, this now makes a strong case for seven bowl eligible teams (TCU dropping out for now) for seven bowls.

Big Ten Conference

Can Michigan win at the Giant Horseshoe?  We believe the Wolverines are now considerably better than Ohio State, and we cannot see a West Division team staying within two touchdowns of the Maize and Blue.  Jim Harbaugh has his alma mater looking much like it did back in the Bo Schembechler 1970’s.

Should Michigan hand Ohio State that season-ending loss, and should Penn State win out, the Nittany Lions could be the Rose Bowl’s choice over a multiple loss West Division champion.

We are looking at 10 bowl eligible teams in this league, but we also believe three teams will be in the NY6, meaning the league will come up one team short for its bowl obligations.

Pac-12 Conference

With Washington’s win at Utah, we now show the Huskies going to the Palouse and beating rival Washington State in the season finale.  In the South, Colorado controls its own destiny with a favorable schedule, but they will have to beat Utah in Boulder on the final weekend.

We show UCLA, Cal, and Oregon falling short, while Arizona State recovers to gain bowl eligibility.  This leads to seven bowl eligible teams for eight spots (one playoff and seven bowls), so the Cactus Bowl would have to find another team.

Southeastern Conference

In what was an interesting turn of events this past weekend in the East Division, South Carolina upset Tennessee and Kentucky won at Missouri.  Florida now controls its own destiny in the division, but if the Gators lose to Arkansas and LSU on the road, and Kentucky beats fading Georgia and Tennessee teams, the Wildcats would be the major shocking surprise winner in the division!

Alabama plays at LSU this weekend, and we just cannot see the Tigers winning this game.  The Tide get Auburn at home, so it looks like a march to the top seed for the Saban Dynasty.

We have added South Carolina to the Bowl list this week, and with Kentucky now 99% assured of gaining bowl eligibility, that brings the SEC to 11 bowl eligible teams, which means they will supply a team for every bowl tie-in.

The 7-loss Alternate Teams

This week, we have 78 teams gaining bowl eligibility.  We have Hawaii at 6-7, so the Rainbow Warriors would be team #79.  The 80th team would thus go to the highest APR score of the 5-7 teams.  Duke would be that team if the Blue Devils can win two more times, but their schedule is set up for a hard crash, and thus we do not believe they will win five games.

Next up among the possible 5-7 teams is Vanderbilt.  If the Commodores win one of their final four games (Missouri is still to be played), it looks like they will be the 80th team in the field.  It might mean a 1,500+ mile trip out West.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. North Texas
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Temple vs. Appy St.
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. S. Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC La. Tech vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Central Fla. vs. Central Mich.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. Western Ky.
Poinsettia MWC BYU Colorado St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA South Florida vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. Texas Tech
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Arkansas St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. Boise St.
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Memphis vs. Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten [Akron] vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC/ND Ole Miss vs. [Idaho]
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {Hawaii} vs. Sou. Miss.
Military ACC/ND AAC [Army] vs. Tulsa
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. {Vanderbilt}
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Va. Tech vs. Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Wash. St.
Texas Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Tennessee
Birmingham AAC SEC [Ga. Sou.] vs. S. Carolina
Belk ACC/ND SEC Wake Forest vs. Florida
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. Arkansas
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Georgia Tech vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Northwestern vs. Georgia
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Nebraska
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Auburn
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Kentucky
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Michigan vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Ohio St. vs. LSU
Cotton At-Large At-Large N. Carolina vs. Western Mich.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Michigan
           
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} At-Large Selection of projected 7-Loss Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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October 20, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 20-24, 2016

Not So Good

Last weekend was not a great one for the parlay-pickers at PiRate Headquarters.  We selected four longshot parlays and returned one winner at +192, as upsets by Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt prevented a potential major windfall.

For the season, this drops our mediocre results to just plain not-so-good.  As usual, our solace is that we are not out a penny, because we never actually invest real currency (or whatever you call those green notes in your wallet).

We’re not all that enthused with this week’s schedule either.  It took an extra afternoon to come up with four picks, and we included two underdogs to win outright in our four plays.  Good luck with that.

It may be a better weekend to hike in the forest with all the changing colors on the trees.

1. College Parlay @ +209
California over Oregon
North Carolina over Virginia
West Virginia over TCU
 
2.College Parlay @ +234
Colorado over Stanford
Oklahoma over Texas Tech
Alabama over Texas A&M
Tulsa over Tulane
 
3. College Singleton @ +275
Arizona St. over Washington St.
 
4. NFL Parlay @ +208
Green Bay over Chicago
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Atlanta over San Diego
Denver over Houston

October 17, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 20-22, 2016

Another Hot Seat Burns

Purdue dismissed Darrell Hazell as head coach yesterday, even though the Boilermakers are off to a 3-3 start and have been more competitive in their games this year than in recent seasons. This brings to three the number of coaches that were replaced in the first half of the season (Les Miles–LSU & Ron Turner–Florida International), not counting Art Briles and Baylor.

Firing a coach in mid-season allows a school to officially, but quietly, begin its coaching search ahead of the schools that have already decided to go with a new regime but have yet to make the announcement official. LSU, FIU, and Purdue can now begin reaching out to agents of prospective coaches to feel out the situation. Coach X, who is 5-1 at a Group of 5 School this year would never say he was interested in any job other than the one he currently has, but Coach X’s agent, Johnny Slickster, has already begun to talk to schools about interviewing his client as well as telling them in a general manner what basic details would have to be included in a contract.

Prime Candidates

The three schools with openings for 2017 will no doubt balloon to seven to 12 schools by the time we exchange our Christmas and Hanukkah gifts this year, so who are the prime candidates to see their incomes climb from six to seven figures?

Basically, three types of candidates earn head coaching jobs in college football–head coaches at smaller schools than the one in question, top coordinators from successful schools, and NFL coaches that have recently lost their jobs. Occasionally, a smaller Group of 5 program will hire a coach from FCS ranks, and a former head coach will get another chance to come back into coaching, but most of the available jobs go to one of the three types described above. Today we will look at the head coaches at smaller schools.

In the past, Miami of Ohio was called “The Cradle of Coaches.” This MAC program produced a Hall of Fame class in its own. Among the legends that coached at the Oxford, Ohio, school were Paul Brown, Sid Gillman, Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Ara Parseghian, Weeb Ewbank, Sean Payton, John Harbaugh, Jim Tressel, Bill Mallory, John Pont, and Colonel Red Blaik.

While the Red Hawks are not producing legends any more, their conference has become a breeding grounds for Power 5 teams. It should be no different this year, as Western Michigan’s P.J. Fleck could be the top candidate for multiple jobs. Fleck has stated that he believes too many coaches fail to see how good they have it where they currently are and make a mistake moving up. Other than Al McGuire, who stayed at Marquette for years after being offered multiple jobs every season, there are not too many American males that have turned down the doubling or tripling of their salary to remain in a smaller job. Kalamazoo, Michigan, is a nice northern town, but places like Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Austin, Texas, or Los Angeles, are very livable too, especially when they come with four million dollar contracts.

Jason Candle at Toledo, John Bonamego at Central Michigan, and Chris Creighton at Eastern Michigan could all be on the radar as well. Creighton has maneuvered the EMU into position to go to a bowl this year, and the Eagles have only been bowling one time, back in 1987.

The Sun Belt Conference has chiefly supplied coaches from Arkansas State in recent years, and the guys they sent on to bigger places have done quite well, including Gus Malzahn, Hugh Freeze, and Bryan Harsin. It’s time to spread the wealth of wizards to other locations, and there are some prime candidates this year. Scott Satterfield at Appalachian State could get some feelers. Troy’s Neal Brown will draw interest, and Idaho’s Paul Petrino will be on some schools’ lists, especially since his program will drop to FCS in two years.

In Conference USA, Jeff Brohm is a hot commodity at the present, but there are other potential candidates in this league. Marshall’s Doc Holliday may only have an interest in one other job, which is not about to become open any time soon, but his recruiting ability could earn him a look at Purdue. Bobby Wilder from Old Dominion could be an option for a larger school, while North Texas’s Seth Littrell is probably a couple years away from becoming a hot commodity.

In the Mountain West, Tony Sanchez is a Las Vegas man, so he may not be ready to leave UNLV after two years. The Rebels have not completely turned the corner, but a sneaky bowl-eligible season when they were picked to finish near the bottom could put Sanchez on some radar screens. The coach that appears to be a rising star from the MWC is Wyoming’s Craig Bohl.  Bohl built North Dakota State into the Alabama of the FCS, and he could get some offers from the Big 12, Pac-12, and even Big Ten.
Then, there is the American Athletic Conference, where Houston’s Tom Herman could be the leading candidate at multiple big-time programs. Herman could stay in Houston if the Cougars were told they were going to be selected by the Big 12, but at this point in time, it is starting to look like the Big 12 will stay as they are. South Florida’s Willie Taggart and Temple’s Matt Rhule should get opportunities to talk to bigger schools.

There are three other Group of 5 coaches that could draw specialty interest if certain jobs became available. Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo, Tulane’s Willie Fritz, and Army’s Jeff Monken may not get the opportunity to interview at a big-time state school, because these three coaches are triple option coaches. There are not many schools in the Power 5 Conferences that would consider going to the archaic system of running the ball 85% of the time, but a place like Purdue, Vanderbilt, or Kansas might be willing to try it out. You cannot ask for too much more from Paul Johnson, who has guided Georgia Tech to seven bowls in eight years, including a top 10 finish and Orange Bowl win.

We will add two more men that could probably go to a Power 5 team and win, but that we feel will not get the opportunity to do so. Akron’s Terry Bowden and New Mexico’s Bob Davie once coached at big-time programs. Bowden led Auburn to multiple SEC West championships, while Davie took over for Lou Holtz at Notre Dame.

How Good is Bama

We frequently get asked by people that know us to compare a team with team’s from the past. Recently, an Alabama fan asked us how good this Tide team was compared to those from the past. He was only asking to compare to past Tide teams, but we like to go one further. How good is this Alabama team among all the teams in college football history?

The obvious answer is that the 2016 Alabama team would beat the 1962 Green Bay Packers or the 1970 Pro Bowl teams, just like today’s Cleveland Cavaliers would run the Boston Celtics of the Red Auerbach era out of the gym, and many high school sprinters of today could win the Gold Medal in the 1896 Olympics.

However, we could say it another way. LeBron James might only have grown to 6 foot 4 had he lived 50 years ago. Compared to Elgin Baylor or Connie Hawkins, he might have been a bench-warmer back then. Had Jesse Owens been born in 1994, he might make Usain Bolt look slow. You have to compare talent to its historical time frame.

So, with the above caveat, where does Alabama currently rank among all-time teams? We can use our PiRate formula to determine how they rank among teams since about 1970. The formula has been tweaked through the years, but we have kept records to know how to compare a rating from 1979 with a rating from today. To be considered great, a team in our PiRate and Bias ratings needs to top 135.0, and in the Mean rating, 130.0. Alabama tops 135 in the PiRate and Bias, but they are a tad under 130 in the Mean. 135 means that a team is 5 touchdowns better than the average team.

Very few teams have finished the season five touchdowns better than the average team. Since 1970, that group is limited to:

1971–Nebraska
1972–Southern Cal
1974–Oklahoma
1995–Nebraska
2001–Miami
2004–Southern Cal
2005–Texas

The 1995 Nebraska team remains the top ever in our PiRate Ratings’ history. USC in 1972 and Nebraska in 1971 are close behind in a tie for second (The 1971 Oklahoma team almost made this list).

There are no doubt other teams prior to our ratings that are as good or even better than the teams we have listed. Army in 1944 and 1945 was much like an all-star team. Notre Dame between 1946 and 1949 stocked the NFL with more than 30 players. Oklahoma once won 47 games in a row in the middle 1950’s and went 107-8-2 over an 11-year span.

If the season ended today, this Alabama team would rank 6th all-time in our PiRate Ratings, behind 1995 Nebraska, 1972 USC, 1971 Nebraska, 2001 Miami, and 2004 USC. Check below to see how we rate the Tide against unbeaten Texas A&M this week.

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 128.6 135.5 133.2
2 Michigan 129.3 126.8 129.8 128.6
3 Washington 128.5 121.1 128.6 126.1
4 Ohio St. 125.6 124.9 126.5 125.7
5 Louisville 126.5 121.3 126.4 124.7
6 Clemson 126.3 119.0 125.3 123.5
7 LSU 123.8 119.1 123.2 122.0
8 Oklahoma 120.2 118.3 120.1 119.5
9 Auburn 118.5 116.6 118.7 117.9
10 Tennessee 118.7 115.6 118.1 117.5
11 Virginia Tech 117.2 116.4 117.5 117.0
12 Texas A&M 117.3 115.5 117.1 116.6
13 Miami 118.8 112.2 118.5 116.5
14 Florida St. 118.7 112.3 117.7 116.2
15 Colorado 116.5 112.3 116.8 115.2
16 Wisconsin 115.3 113.4 116.0 114.9
17 USC 116.9 112.4 114.6 114.6
18 North Carolina 116.6 110.1 116.4 114.4
19 Oklahoma St. 114.1 115.1 113.9 114.4
20 Houston 114.3 112.6 116.1 114.3
21 Baylor 113.8 114.1 114.4 114.1
22 Ole Miss 116.2 110.4 115.3 114.0
23 Florida 113.7 116.0 112.0 113.9
24 Pittsburgh 114.9 111.2 114.1 113.4
25 Western Michigan 113.1 111.7 115.0 113.3
26 Washington St. 113.2 110.1 113.3 112.2
27 Nebraska 113.0 109.9 113.0 112.0
28 Stanford 114.2 107.8 113.1 111.7
29 Iowa 112.2 109.5 112.1 111.3
30 Texas 110.9 112.1 110.2 111.1
31 UCLA 111.6 110.2 111.1 111.0
32 West Virginia 111.4 110.1 110.9 110.8
33 South Florida 111.3 109.0 112.0 110.8
34 Arkansas 112.8 107.9 110.7 110.5
35 Notre Dame 112.0 108.4 110.3 110.2
36 TCU 109.6 111.1 109.1 109.9
37 North Carolina St. 110.2 107.2 110.0 109.1
38 Boise St. 108.1 109.3 109.4 108.9
39 Georgia Tech 109.5 105.3 108.6 107.8
40 Mississippi St. 108.8 106.7 107.8 107.8
41 Georgia 108.2 107.4 107.5 107.7
42 Utah 110.1 104.7 108.0 107.6
43 Penn St. 107.1 109.1 105.9 107.4
44 BYU 109.3 103.6 108.8 107.2
45 Northwestern 109.2 104.5 107.9 107.2
46 Kansas St. 106.4 108.9 106.2 107.2
47 Minnesota 105.7 104.5 105.2 105.1
48 Arizona St. 105.8 104.9 104.6 105.1
49 Oregon 105.9 104.3 104.9 105.0
50 Michigan St. 105.4 104.4 103.3 104.4
51 Memphis 105.8 102.4 104.6 104.3
52 Indiana 103.0 105.6 102.7 103.8
53 Toledo 103.4 102.8 104.0 103.4
54 Wake Forest 104.1 101.7 103.8 103.2
55 Texas Tech 103.4 102.7 101.4 102.5
56 Virginia 103.0 100.8 102.4 102.1
57 California 105.1 97.8 102.8 101.9
58 Maryland 101.4 104.3 99.5 101.7
59 Syracuse 103.1 99.8 101.5 101.5
60 San Diego St. 101.2 99.9 103.3 101.5
61 Missouri 101.6 100.9 101.1 101.2
62 Duke 101.1 101.3 100.2 100.9
63 Navy 100.9 100.8 100.6 100.8
64 Temple 100.7 100.6 100.7 100.7
65 Vanderbilt 101.6 98.4 100.3 100.1
66 Tulsa 99.1 101.3 99.9 100.1
67 Arizona 100.9 98.8 99.4 99.7
68 South Carolina 99.5 99.0 98.9 99.2
69 Appalachian St. 98.4 98.6 100.3 99.1
70 Boston College 99.2 98.6 98.9 98.9
71 Western Kentucky 99.1 96.2 99.9 98.4
72 Central Michigan 97.6 99.3 98.3 98.4
73 Air Force 97.7 98.9 97.9 98.2
74 Kentucky 97.8 99.4 96.9 98.0
75 Iowa St. 98.3 97.8 97.6 97.9
76 Cincinnati 97.7 98.0 97.8 97.9
77 Army 93.3 101.7 96.3 97.1
78 Connecticut 97.6 95.4 97.5 96.9
79 Illinois 97.4 93.9 96.6 96.0
80 Troy 92.8 97.4 94.8 95.0
81 Middle Tennessee 94.5 95.5 95.1 95.0
82 Central Florida 94.0 96.3 94.4 94.9
83 Louisiana Tech 93.9 95.3 95.4 94.9
84 Utah St. 93.2 95.7 92.9 93.9
85 Oregon St. 95.6 91.1 93.9 93.5
86 Northern Illinois 92.7 94.0 93.8 93.5
87 New Mexico 92.2 94.6 92.9 93.3
88 Purdue 94.2 92.3 92.9 93.1
89 East Carolina 91.9 93.9 92.1 92.6
90 Georgia Southern 91.6 91.5 93.8 92.3
91 Ohio 89.4 96.4 89.8 91.9
92 SMU 91.2 90.8 93.3 91.8
93 Southern Mississippi 91.3 91.8 91.7 91.6
94 Old Dominion 89.0 92.5 89.6 90.4
95 UNLV 88.5 91.8 88.8 89.7
96 Arkansas St. 87.9 89.9 89.6 89.1
97 Wyoming 88.9 88.9 89.5 89.1
98 Akron 86.6 92.6 88.1 89.1
99 Rutgers 90.2 88.0 88.6 89.0
100 Colorado St. 87.3 89.1 88.2 88.2
101 Ball St. 86.5 88.5 87.7 87.6
102 Marshall 85.8 88.9 87.0 87.2
103 Nevada 85.7 88.4 86.5 86.9
104 Tulane 85.3 89.4 85.9 86.9
105 South Alabama 83.5 90.4 84.8 86.2
106 Kent St. 85.3 87.0 85.9 86.1
107 Eastern Michigan 85.1 87.6 85.3 86.0
108 UTSA 82.6 89.6 85.3 85.9
109 Kansas 83.7 89.5 81.0 84.8
110 Georgia St. 82.5 87.0 84.4 84.6
111 Bowling Green 84.3 84.4 84.2 84.3
112 Miami (O) 83.4 84.7 84.8 84.3
113 San Jose St. 84.3 83.9 83.5 83.9
114 Hawaii 84.0 82.8 83.6 83.5
115 Rice 80.7 87.5 80.9 83.0
116 Fresno St. 80.4 84.3 80.2 81.6
117 Idaho 79.0 84.6 80.5 81.4
118 Florida International 79.3 84.5 79.4 81.1
119 Massachusetts 78.3 85.0 79.4 80.9
120 North Texas 79.1 81.7 79.7 80.2
121 Florida Atlantic 76.8 81.7 80.0 79.5
122 UL-Lafayette 76.0 82.8 77.6 78.8
123 Buffalo 74.8 82.0 75.4 77.4
124 Charlotte 71.1 76.7 71.5 73.1
125 UTEP 70.5 75.1 71.5 72.4
126 New Mexico St. 70.7 74.1 71.4 72.1
127 UL-Monroe 69.8 74.6 70.3 71.6
128 Texas St. 69.1 70.6 70.1 69.9

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.3 109.0 112.0 110.8
Temple 100.7 100.6 100.7 100.7
Cincinnati 97.7 98.0 97.8 97.9
Connecticut 97.6 95.4 97.5 96.9
Central Florida 94.0 96.3 94.4 94.9
East Carolina 91.9 93.9 92.1 92.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 114.3 112.6 116.1 114.3
Memphis 105.8 102.4 104.6 104.3
Navy 100.9 100.8 100.6 100.8
Tulsa 99.1 101.3 99.9 100.1
SMU 91.2 90.8 93.3 91.8
Tulane 85.3 89.4 85.9 86.9
         
AAC Averages 99.2 99.3 99.6 99.3
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 126.5 121.3 126.4 124.7
Clemson 126.3 119.0 125.3 123.5
Florida St. 118.7 112.3 117.7 116.2
North Carolina St. 110.2 107.2 110.0 109.1
Wake Forest 104.1 101.7 103.8 103.2
Syracuse 103.1 99.8 101.5 101.5
Boston College 99.2 98.6 98.9 98.9
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 117.2 116.4 117.5 117.0
Miami 118.8 112.2 118.5 116.5
North Carolina 116.6 110.1 116.4 114.4
Pittsburgh 114.9 111.2 114.1 113.4
Georgia Tech 109.5 105.3 108.6 107.8
Virginia 103.0 100.8 102.4 102.1
Duke 101.1 101.3 100.2 100.9
         
ACC Averages 112.1 108.4 111.5 110.7
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.2 118.3 120.1 119.5
Oklahoma St. 114.1 115.1 113.9 114.4
Baylor 113.8 114.1 114.4 114.1
Texas 110.9 112.1 110.2 111.1
West Virginia 111.4 110.1 110.9 110.8
TCU 109.6 111.1 109.1 109.9
Kansas St. 106.4 108.9 106.2 107.2
Texas Tech 103.4 102.7 101.4 102.5
Iowa St. 98.3 97.8 97.6 97.9
Kansas 83.7 89.5 81.0 84.8
         
Big 12 Averages 107.2 108.0 106.5 107.2
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 129.3 126.8 129.8 128.6
Ohio St. 125.6 124.9 126.5 125.7
Penn St. 107.1 109.1 105.9 107.4
Michigan St. 105.4 104.4 103.3 104.4
Indiana 103.0 105.6 102.7 103.8
Maryland 101.4 104.3 99.5 101.7
Rutgers 90.2 88.0 88.6 89.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 115.3 113.4 116.0 114.9
Nebraska 113.0 109.9 113.0 112.0
Iowa 112.2 109.5 112.1 111.3
Northwestern 109.2 104.5 107.9 107.2
Minnesota 105.7 104.5 105.2 105.1
Illinois 97.4 93.9 96.6 96.0
Purdue 94.2 92.3 92.9 93.1
         
Big Ten Averages 107.8 106.5 107.1 107.2
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 99.1 96.2 99.9 98.4
Middle Tennessee 94.5 95.5 95.1 95.0
Old Dominion 89.0 92.5 89.6 90.4
Marshall 85.8 88.9 87.0 87.2
Florida International 79.3 84.5 79.4 81.1
Florida Atlantic 76.8 81.7 80.0 79.5
Charlotte 71.1 76.7 71.5 73.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 93.9 95.3 95.4 94.9
Southern Mississippi 91.3 91.8 91.7 91.6
UTSA 82.6 89.6 85.3 85.9
Rice 80.7 87.5 80.9 83.0
North Texas 79.1 81.7 79.7 80.2
UTEP 70.5 75.1 71.5 72.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.1 87.5 85.2 85.6
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.0 108.4 110.3 110.2
BYU 109.3 103.6 108.8 107.2
Army 93.3 101.7 96.3 97.1
Massachusetts 78.3 85.0 79.4 80.9
         
Indep. Averages 98.2 99.7 98.7 98.9
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 89.4 96.4 89.8 91.9
Akron 86.6 92.6 88.1 89.1
Kent St. 85.3 87.0 85.9 86.1
Bowling Green 84.3 84.4 84.2 84.3
Miami (O) 83.4 84.7 84.8 84.3
Buffalo 74.8 82.0 75.4 77.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.1 111.7 115.0 113.3
Toledo 103.4 102.8 104.0 103.4
Central Michigan 97.6 99.3 98.3 98.4
Northern Illinois 92.7 94.0 93.8 93.5
Ball St. 86.5 88.5 87.7 87.6
Eastern Michigan 85.1 87.6 85.3 86.0
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.6 91.0 91.3
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 108.1 109.3 109.4 108.9
Air Force 97.7 98.9 97.9 98.2
Utah St. 93.2 95.7 92.9 93.9
New Mexico 92.2 94.6 92.9 93.3
Wyoming 88.9 88.9 89.5 89.1
Colorado St. 87.3 89.1 88.2 88.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 101.2 99.9 103.3 101.5
UNLV 88.5 91.8 88.8 89.7
Nevada 85.7 88.4 86.5 86.9
San Jose St. 84.3 83.9 83.5 83.9
Hawaii 84.0 82.8 83.6 83.5
Fresno St. 80.4 84.3 80.2 81.6
         
MWC Averages 91.0 92.3 91.4 91.6
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 128.5 121.1 128.6 126.1
Washington St. 113.2 110.1 113.3 112.2
Stanford 114.2 107.8 113.1 111.7
Oregon 105.9 104.3 104.9 105.0
California 105.1 97.8 102.8 101.9
Oregon St. 95.6 91.1 93.9 93.5
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colorado 116.5 112.3 116.8 115.2
USC 116.9 112.4 114.6 114.6
UCLA 111.6 110.2 111.1 111.0
Utah 110.1 104.7 108.0 107.6
Arizona St. 105.8 104.9 104.6 105.1
Arizona 100.9 98.8 99.4 99.7
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.3 109.3 108.6
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 118.7 115.6 118.1 117.5
Florida 113.7 116.0 112.0 113.9
Georgia 108.2 107.4 107.5 107.7
Missouri 101.6 100.9 101.1 101.2
Vanderbilt 101.6 98.4 100.3 100.1
South Carolina 99.5 99.0 98.9 99.2
Kentucky 97.8 99.4 96.9 98.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 135.6 128.6 135.5 133.2
LSU 123.8 119.1 123.2 122.0
Auburn 118.5 116.6 118.7 117.9
Texas A&M 117.3 115.5 117.1 116.6
Ole Miss 116.2 110.4 115.3 114.0
Arkansas 112.8 107.9 110.7 110.5
Mississippi St. 108.8 106.7 107.8 107.8
         
SEC Averages 112.4 110.1 111.7 111.4
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 98.4 98.6 100.3 99.1
Troy 92.8 97.4 94.8 95.0
Georgia Southern 91.6 91.5 93.8 92.3
Arkansas St. 87.9 89.9 89.6 89.1
South Alabama 83.5 90.4 84.8 86.2
Georgia St. 82.5 87.0 84.4 84.6
Idaho 79.0 84.6 80.5 81.4
UL-Lafayette 76.0 82.8 77.6 78.8
New Mexico St. 70.7 74.1 71.4 72.1
UL-Monroe 69.8 74.6 70.3 71.6
Texas St. 69.1 70.6 70.1 69.9
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 85.6 83.4 83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.4 110.1 111.7 111.4
2 ACC 112.1 108.4 111.5 110.7
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.3 109.3 108.6
4 Big 12 107.2 108.0 106.5 107.2
5 Big Ten 107.8 106.5 107.1 107.2
6 AAC 99.2 99.3 99.6 99.3
7 Independents 98.2 99.7 98.7 98.9
8 MWC 91.0 92.3 91.4 91.6
9 MAC 90.2 92.6 91.0 91.3
10 CUSA 84.1 87.5 85.2 85.6
11 Sun Belt 81.9 85.6 83.4 83.7

 

This Week’s Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 20-22
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, October 20      
Virginia Tech Miami (Fla.) 1.4 7.2 2.0
South Alabama Troy -7.3 -5.0 -8.0
Boise St. BYU 1.8 8.7 3.6
         
Friday, October 21      
Temple South Florida -7.6 -5.4 -8.3
San Diego St. San Jose St. 19.9 19.0 22.8
California Oregon 2.2 -3.5 0.9
         
Saturday, October 22      
Army North Texas 17.2 23.0 19.6
South Carolina Massachusetts 24.2 17.0 22.5
Connecticut Central Florida 6.6 2.1 6.1
Toledo Central Michigan 8.8 6.5 8.7
Bowling Green Miami (O) 2.9 1.7 1.4
Northwestern Indiana 8.7 1.4 7.7
Iowa Wisconsin -0.1 -0.9 -0.9
Louisville North Carolina St. 19.3 17.1 19.4
Kansas Oklahoma St. -27.4 -22.6 -29.9
Kansas St. Texas -1.5 -0.2 -1.0
Minnesota Rutgers 18.5 19.5 19.6
Boston College Syracuse -0.9 1.8 0.4
Kent St. Ohio U -2.1 -7.4 -1.9
Air Force Hawaii 17.2 19.6 17.8
Ball St. Akron 2.9 -1.1 2.6
Stanford Colorado 0.7 -1.5 -0.7
Virginia North Carolina -10.6 -6.3 -11.0
Navy Memphis -1.9 1.4 -1.0
Michigan Illinois 34.9 35.9 36.2
Nebraska Purdue 21.8 20.6 23.1
West Virginia TCU 4.8 2.0 4.8
Appalachian St. Idaho 22.9 17.5 23.3
Northern Illinois Buffalo 20.9 15.0 21.4
Alabama Texas A&M 21.3 16.1 21.4
Western Michigan Eastern Michigan 30.0 26.1 32.7
Tulsa Tulane 16.8 14.9 17.0
UCLA Utah 4.5 8.5 6.1
Missouri Middle Tennessee 10.1 8.4 9.0
UNLV Colorado St. 4.2 5.7 3.6
Marshall Charlotte 17.7 13.4 18.5
Auburn Arkansas 8.7 11.7 11.0
Washington Oregon St. 35.9 33.0 37.7
Florida Int’l. Louisiana Tech -11.6 -7.4 -13.0
Western Kentucky Old Dominion 13.1 6.7 13.3
UTSA UTEP 14.6 17.0 16.3
Cincinnati East Carolina 8.8 7.1 8.7
SMU Houston -20.9 -19.3 -20.3
Texas St. UL-Lafayette -4.4 -9.7 -5.0
Maryland Michigan St. -1.0 2.9 -0.8
Kentucky Mississippi St. -8.0 -4.3 -7.9
New Mexico St. Georgia Southern -17.9 -14.4 -19.4
Penn St. Ohio St. -15.5 -12.8 -17.6
Texas Tech Oklahoma -13.8 -12.6 -15.7
LSU Ole Miss 9.1 11.2 10.4
New Mexico UL-Monroe 25.4 23.0 25.6
Arizona St. Washington St. -4.4 -2.2 -5.7
Utah St. Fresno St. 15.8 14.4 15.7
Nevada Wyoming -0.2 2.5 -0.1

 

FBS vs. FCS Week 8  
Home Visitor PiRate
Georgia St. UT-Martin 15
Rice Prairie View 14
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 25

Bowl Projections

This week, we project 78 teams to be bowl eligible, necessitating two 7-loss teams falling into bowl games.  A 6-7 Hawaii team trumps all other 7-loss teams.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Sou. Miss.
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Utah vs. Boise St.
Cure AAC SBC South Florida vs. Ga. Southern
Camellia MAC SBC Akron vs. S. Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Tulsa vs. Central Mich.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. Western Ky.
Poinsettia MWC BYU Air Force vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Memphis vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. [Idaho]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Appy St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. {Hawaii}
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Temple vs. Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Georgia Tech vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC/ND {Boston Coll.} vs. [Florida Int’l.]
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland vs. North Texas
Military ACC/ND AAC N. Carolina St. vs. Central Fla.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Arizona St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [UNLV] vs. California
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Florida St. vs. TCU
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Wash. St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Ole Miss
Birmingham AAC SEC [Arkansas St.] vs. [Ball St.]
Belk ACC/ND SEC Wake Forest vs. Georgia
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. LSU
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 N. Carolina vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC La. Tech vs. San Diego St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Northwestern vs. [Army]
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Clemson vs. Tennessee
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Arkansas
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. West Virginia
Outback Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Louisville vs. Western Mich.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.
           
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} At-Large Selection of projected 7-Loss Team

 

 

 

October 10, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 12-15, 2016

Happy Thanksgiving!

Yes, it’s the second Monday in October, and the Oktoberfest Parade was a dandy this year.  That doubleheader football classic continues as these words are typed.

The spicy, not sweet, pumpkin pie was delicious again, and the crisp cool weather with snow due by Friday creates the perfect festive environment.  Plus, there are no wild dashes to the stores tomorrow.

For those of you readers in the lower 48 not familiar with what us PiRates speak of, today is Canadian Thanksgiving.  It is actually somewhat older than the holiday celebrated in the States.

The Kitchener-Waterloo Oktoberfest Parade features floats, pretty lasses waving until their hands go numb, and all the fun and frivolity of any parade in the Lower 48.  Rather than sponsor a store to begin selling for the next big holiday, this parade concentrates on raising funds with the Onkel Hans Food Drive.

The Lions did play today, but it was the British Columbia Lions.  They fell in a heartbreaker to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 37-35.  We have friends that call the winners “Winterpeg.”  In the nightcap, Calgary is playing Toronto, and the game is currently nearing halftime with CGY in the lead.

Our hats and hearts go to our friends and patrons in Canada on your special day.  Your nation has opened its heart to our PiRate family in the past, and you are our extended family in our book.  We hope to keep a certain jewelry designer’s paws off all that amethyst in NW Ontario, for she would like nothing more than to bring it all home with her and make beautiful jewelry as she has done before.

Cinderella’s Slipper Didn’t Fit This Time

We were all prepared to recall the incredibly fantasy-like feats of the Cardiac Indiana Hoosiers of 1967, and it would have been for good reason.  When Tennessee almost pulled a 12-foot rabbit out of their hat Saturday afternoon in College Station, Texas, it might have topped the Hoosiers’ unexpected run to the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl in 1967.

Alas, the Vols ran out of Aladdins’ lamps to rub, and they were shocked back to reality in double overtime.  With Alabama coming to Knoxville this week, don’t expect any miracles.  Nick Saban’s Tide will keep the throttle at full-speed even if the Tide go up 21 points quickly.

Are We Looking At Another Great Big Ten Finale

Ohio State and Michigan are both undefeated, both in the top 5, both averaging at  least 50 points per game, and both giving up less than a dozen points per game as the season is halfway in the books.

It looks close to a sure thing that one of these two teams will make the Playoffs at the end of the season and enter said games at 13-0.  Yes, Nebraska is still unbeaten, but the Cornhuskers appear to be about 14-17 points weaker than either East Division power.  There is a chance both teams could find a way into the 4-team scramble if Clemson, Washington, and the loser of the Alabama-Texas A&M game all lose another game.

In the Days of Woody Hayes in Columbus Bo Schembechler in Ann Arbor, there were two very special games between these two teams when both were undefeated with the Rose Bowl (the only bowl available to a Big Ten team) on the line.   The first time was in 1970.

The 1969 Ohio State team looked like the best team in college football since the 1945 Army Cadets.  They destroyed all eight opponents on their schedule.  Michigan had improved week-to-week after losing big to a Missouri team that would win the Big 8 and play in the Orange Bowl.  The Wolverines entered the 1969 finale just one game behind the Buckeyes in the Big Ten race, so an unlikely upset win would put the Maize and Blue in the Rose Bowl.  Nobody outside of Michigan gave the Wolverines a chance to win the game, but a basket full of OSU turnovers led to an incredible upset.

Now, in 1970, Ohio State was ready for revenge.  The entire campus was prepared for war.  The Buckeyes had won all their games again leading up to this one, and this time Michigan had won all their games.  This time, Michigan looked like the more unbeatable team.  The Wolverines had just blown out Iowa almost like they blew out Rutgers this past weekend.  Ohio State had barely edged a Purdue team that was much weaker than the Boilermakers’ previous four editions.

As wont to be when Woody’s team faced Bo’s team, the game was a defensive struggle for 60 minutes.  Michigan couldn’t move the ball at all the entire day, while Ohio State found a lot of success running inside the tackles and then faking inside and running outside.  However, it did not produce points.  It took a blocked extra point attempt to decide this game, as Ohio State won 10-9 to earn a trip to the Rose Bowl.  In Pasadena, the Buckeyes were not prepared to face the passing game of Stanford’s Jim Plunkett, as the Indians (not yet the Cardinal) pulled off a big upset and opened the door for Nebraska to take the first of two consecutive national titles.

As the season continues, and if both teams continue to win, we will give a short history of the 1973 and 2006 games.  If the two teams are 11-0 when they play in November, it will outrank the Game of the Century of 2006, when Ohio State was #1 and Michigan was #2.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.8 124.8 131.5 129.4
2 Michigan 129.0 126.5 129.5 128.3
3 Ohio St. 126.2 125.6 127.3 126.4
4 Louisville 127.8 122.1 127.9 125.9
5 Washington 128.2 120.8 128.3 125.8
6 Clemson 127.7 120.1 126.9 124.9
7 LSU 123.8 118.6 123.0 121.8
8 Virginia Tech 120.7 119.9 121.3 120.6
9 Tennessee 121.2 118.1 120.8 120.0
10 Oklahoma 119.8 117.7 119.6 119.0
11 Miami 120.4 113.5 120.3 118.1
12 Auburn 118.2 116.3 118.4 117.6
13 Florida St. 119.3 112.4 118.5 116.7
14 Texas A&M 117.0 115.2 116.8 116.3
15 Houston 115.1 113.2 117.1 115.1
16 Ole Miss 116.8 110.6 116.3 114.6
17 Wisconsin 114.7 112.7 115.2 114.2
18 Oklahoma St. 113.8 114.8 113.6 114.1
19 Colorado 114.7 110.3 114.8 113.3
20 North Carolina 115.3 109.1 114.9 113.1
21 Pittsburgh 114.4 110.8 113.5 112.9
22 Florida 112.6 115.2 110.8 112.9
23 USC 114.8 110.6 112.4 112.6
24 Washington St. 113.0 109.8 113.1 112.0
25 Nebraska 113.2 109.6 113.2 112.0
26 Baylor 111.3 111.4 111.9 111.5
27 Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
28 UCLA 111.9 110.6 111.4 111.3
29 Iowa 112.4 109.5 111.8 111.2
30 Stanford 113.6 107.0 112.3 111.0
31 South Florida 111.5 109.1 112.3 111.0
32 Boise St. 109.9 110.8 111.6 110.8
33 Western Michigan 110.4 109.5 112.1 110.7
34 Texas 110.5 111.8 109.7 110.7
35 Arkansas 112.2 107.7 109.7 109.9
36 TCU 109.3 110.8 108.8 109.6
37 Georgia 109.5 108.7 109.0 109.1
38 Georgia Tech 109.8 105.5 108.9 108.1
39 North Carolina St. 109.1 106.4 108.7 108.1
40 Utah 110.5 105.0 108.5 108.0
41 Kansas St. 107.1 109.8 107.0 108.0
42 Mississippi St. 108.6 106.7 107.5 107.6
43 BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
44 West Virginia 107.8 106.7 107.2 107.2
45 Penn St. 106.8 108.8 105.6 107.1
46 Arizona St. 107.3 106.6 106.3 106.8
47 Michigan St. 107.3 106.5 105.4 106.4
48 Texas Tech 107.0 106.1 105.1 106.1
49 Northwestern 107.8 102.9 106.3 105.7
50 Oregon 105.7 104.1 104.7 104.8
51 Memphis 106.1 102.4 104.8 104.5
52 Toledo 104.5 103.5 105.3 104.4
53 Maryland 104.0 107.2 102.0 104.4
54 Indiana 102.8 105.9 102.5 103.7
55 Minnesota 103.6 102.1 103.2 103.0
56 Wake Forest 103.5 101.6 103.0 102.7
57 Virginia 103.5 101.2 103.0 102.6
58 Missouri 103.0 102.0 102.6 102.6
59 Arizona 103.3 100.9 101.9 102.0
60 San Diego St. 101.7 100.1 104.0 102.0
61 California 104.8 97.5 102.5 101.6
62 Temple 100.8 100.6 100.9 100.8
63 Navy 100.7 100.6 100.4 100.6
64 Air Force 99.5 100.2 99.9 99.9
65 Duke 99.5 100.2 98.4 99.4
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 97.6 99.3 99.3
67 South Carolina 99.3 98.8 98.7 99.0
68 Tulsa 97.8 100.2 98.4 98.8
69 Boston College 99.0 98.4 98.7 98.7
70 Central Michigan 97.8 99.5 98.5 98.6
71 Western Kentucky 99.3 96.0 100.2 98.5
72 Iowa St. 98.7 98.1 98.1 98.3
73 Appalachian St. 97.5 97.0 99.3 97.9
74 Syracuse 99.6 96.3 97.7 97.9
75 Kentucky 97.6 99.2 96.7 97.8
76 Cincinnati 97.5 97.8 97.6 97.7
77 Connecticut 97.4 95.3 97.2 96.7
78 Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
79 Illinois 97.0 93.7 96.0 95.6
80 Troy 93.1 97.7 95.1 95.3
81 Middle Tennessee 94.3 95.7 94.8 94.9
82 Central Florida 93.9 96.3 94.2 94.8
83 Ohio 91.2 98.7 91.7 93.9
84 Utah St. 93.0 95.5 92.7 93.7
85 Northern Illinois 92.5 93.8 93.6 93.3
86 Purdue 94.0 92.3 93.2 93.2
87 Oregon St. 95.2 90.8 93.4 93.1
88 Louisiana Tech 91.9 93.1 93.2 92.7
89 East Carolina 91.7 93.7 91.9 92.4
90 Georgia Southern 91.3 91.3 93.5 92.1
91 New Mexico 90.7 93.6 91.2 91.9
92 Southern Mississippi 91.3 92.3 91.9 91.9
93 SMU 91.0 90.6 93.1 91.6
94 Akron 88.6 94.1 90.3 91.0
95 Old Dominion 88.8 92.3 89.4 90.2
96 Rutgers 91.1 88.7 89.7 89.9
97 UNLV 88.3 91.9 88.6 89.6
98 Wyoming 88.7 88.7 89.3 88.9
99 Arkansas St. 87.7 89.5 89.3 88.8
100 Nevada 87.0 90.1 87.8 88.3
101 Marshall 86.4 89.3 87.7 87.8
102 Ball St. 86.5 88.0 87.5 87.3
103 Kansas 86.2 92.2 83.5 87.3
104 Colorado St. 86.0 88.1 86.5 86.9
105 South Alabama 84.0 91.1 85.4 86.8
106 Kent St. 86.0 87.6 86.5 86.7
107 Tulane 85.0 89.4 85.7 86.7
108 UTSA 82.4 89.4 85.3 85.7
109 Georgia St. 82.2 86.7 84.1 84.3
110 Bowling Green 84.2 84.7 83.9 84.3
111 San Jose St. 84.0 84.6 83.8 84.1
112 Miami (O) 83.0 84.4 84.5 84.0
113 Eastern Michigan 82.3 85.3 83.4 83.7
114 Hawaii 84.2 82.7 83.8 83.6
115 Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
116 Rice 80.9 87.7 80.9 83.2
117 Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.8 81.5
118 Florida International 79.6 84.6 79.7 81.3
119 UL-Lafayette 76.9 84.4 78.6 80.0
120 North Texas 78.9 81.5 79.5 80.0
121 Florida Atlantic 76.5 81.6 79.6 79.2
122 Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
123 Buffalo 75.3 83.0 76.1 78.2
124 New Mexico St. 73.4 76.6 74.3 74.8
125 Charlotte 70.9 76.7 71.3 73.0
126 UTEP 70.3 74.9 71.3 72.2
127 UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
128 Texas St. 69.6 71.0 70.6 70.4
           
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.3 110.0 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 112.1 108.4 111.5 110.7
3 Pac-12 110.3 106.2 109.1 108.5
4 Big Ten 107.9 106.6 107.2 107.2
5 Big 12 107.2 108.0 106.5 107.2
6 Independents 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
7 AAC 92.0 91.7 92.3 92.0
8 MWC 91.1 92.6 91.6 91.8
9 MAC 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
10 CUSA 84.0 87.3 85.0 85.4
11 Sun Belt 82.0 85.7 83.5 83.7
American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.5 109.1 112.3 111.0
Temple 100.8 100.6 100.9 100.8
Cincinnati 97.5 97.8 97.6 97.7
Connecticut 97.4 95.3 97.2 96.7
Central Florida 93.9 96.3 94.2 94.8
East Carolina 91.7 93.7 91.9 92.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 115.1 113.2 117.1 115.1
Memphis 106.1 102.4 104.8 104.5
Navy 100.7 100.6 100.4 100.6
Tulsa 97.8 100.2 98.4 98.8
SMU 91.0 90.6 93.1 91.6
Tulane 85.0 89.4 85.7 86.7
         
AAC Averages 92.0 91.7 92.3 92.0
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.8 122.1 127.9 125.9
Clemson 127.7 120.1 126.9 124.9
Florida St. 119.3 112.4 118.5 116.7
North Carolina St. 109.1 106.4 108.7 108.1
Wake Forest 103.5 101.6 103.0 102.7
Boston College 99.0 98.4 98.7 98.7
Syracuse 99.6 96.3 97.7 97.9
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 120.7 119.9 121.3 120.6
Miami 120.4 113.5 120.3 118.1
North Carolina 115.3 109.1 114.9 113.1
Pittsburgh 114.4 110.8 113.5 112.9
Georgia Tech 109.8 105.5 108.9 108.1
Virginia 103.5 101.2 103.0 102.6
Duke 99.5 100.2 98.4 99.4
         
ACC Averages 112.1 108.4 111.5 110.7
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 119.8 117.7 119.6 119.0
Oklahoma St. 113.8 114.8 113.6 114.1
Baylor 111.3 111.4 111.9 111.5
Texas 110.5 111.8 109.7 110.7
TCU 109.3 110.8 108.8 109.6
Kansas St. 107.1 109.8 107.0 108.0
West Virginia 107.8 106.7 107.2 107.2
Texas Tech 107.0 106.1 105.1 106.1
Iowa St. 98.7 98.1 98.1 98.3
Kansas 86.2 92.2 83.5 87.3
         
Big 12 Averages 107.2 108.0 106.5 107.2
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 129.0 126.5 129.5 128.3
Ohio St. 126.2 125.6 127.3 126.4
Penn St. 106.8 108.8 105.6 107.1
Michigan St. 107.3 106.5 105.4 106.4
Maryland 104.0 107.2 102.0 104.4
Indiana 102.8 105.9 102.5 103.7
Rutgers 91.1 88.7 89.7 89.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 114.7 112.7 115.2 114.2
Nebraska 113.2 109.6 113.2 112.0
Iowa 112.4 109.5 111.8 111.2
Northwestern 107.8 102.9 106.3 105.7
Minnesota 103.6 102.1 103.2 103.0
Illinois 97.0 93.7 96.0 95.6
Purdue 94.0 92.3 93.2 93.2
         
Big Ten Averages 107.9 106.6 107.2 107.2
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 99.3 96.0 100.2 98.5
Middle Tennessee 94.3 95.7 94.8 94.9
Old Dominion 88.8 92.3 89.4 90.2
Marshall 86.4 89.3 87.7 87.8
Florida International 79.6 84.6 79.7 81.3
Florida Atlantic 76.5 81.6 79.6 79.2
Charlotte 70.9 76.7 71.3 73.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 91.9 93.1 93.2 92.7
Southern Mississippi 91.3 92.3 91.9 91.9
UTSA 82.4 89.4 85.3 85.7
Rice 80.9 87.7 80.9 83.2
North Texas 78.9 81.5 79.5 80.0
UTEP 70.3 74.9 71.3 72.2
         
CUSA Averages 84.0 87.3 85.0 85.4
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
         
Independents Averages 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.2 98.7 91.7 93.9
Akron 88.6 94.1 90.3 91.0
Kent St. 86.0 87.6 86.5 86.7
Bowling Green 84.2 84.7 83.9 84.3
Miami (O) 83.0 84.4 84.5 84.0
Buffalo 75.3 83.0 76.1 78.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 110.4 109.5 112.1 110.7
Toledo 104.5 103.5 105.3 104.4
Central Michigan 97.8 99.5 98.5 98.6
Northern Illinois 92.5 93.8 93.6 93.3
Ball St. 86.5 88.0 87.5 87.3
Eastern Michigan 82.3 85.3 83.4 83.7
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 109.9 110.8 111.6 110.8
Air Force 99.5 100.2 99.9 99.9
Utah St. 93.0 95.5 92.7 93.7
New Mexico 90.7 93.6 91.2 91.9
Wyoming 88.7 88.7 89.3 88.9
Colorado St. 86.0 88.1 86.5 86.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 101.7 100.1 104.0 102.0
UNLV 88.3 91.9 88.6 89.6
Nevada 87.0 90.1 87.8 88.3
San Jose St. 84.0 84.6 83.8 84.1
Hawaii 84.2 82.7 83.8 83.6
Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.8 81.5
         
MWC Averages 91.1 92.6 91.6 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 128.2 120.8 128.3 125.8
Washington St. 113.0 109.8 113.1 112.0
Stanford 113.6 107.0 112.3 111.0
Oregon 105.7 104.1 104.7 104.8
California 104.8 97.5 102.5 101.6
Oregon St. 95.2 90.8 93.4 93.1
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colorado 114.7 110.3 114.8 113.3
USC 114.8 110.6 112.4 112.6
UCLA 111.9 110.6 111.4 111.3
Utah 110.5 105.0 108.5 108.0
Arizona St. 107.3 106.6 106.3 106.8
Arizona 103.3 100.9 101.9 102.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.3 106.2 109.1 108.5
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 121.2 118.1 120.8 120.0
Florida 112.6 115.2 110.8 112.9
Georgia 109.5 108.7 109.0 109.1
Missouri 103.0 102.0 102.6 102.6
Vanderbilt 100.8 97.6 99.3 99.3
South Carolina 99.3 98.8 98.7 99.0
Kentucky 97.6 99.2 96.7 97.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.8 124.8 131.5 129.4
LSU 123.8 118.6 123.0 121.8
Auburn 118.2 116.3 118.4 117.6
Texas A&M 117.0 115.2 116.8 116.3
Ole Miss 116.8 110.6 116.3 114.6
Arkansas 112.2 107.7 109.7 109.9
Mississippi St. 108.6 106.7 107.5 107.6
         
SEC Averages 112.3 110.0 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 97.5 97.0 99.3 97.9
Troy 93.1 97.7 95.1 95.3
Georgia Southern 91.3 91.3 93.5 92.1
Arkansas St. 87.7 89.5 89.3 88.8
South Alabama 84.0 91.1 85.4 86.8
Georgia St. 82.2 86.7 84.1 84.3
UL-Lafayette 76.9 84.4 78.6 80.0
Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
New Mexico St. 73.4 76.6 74.3 74.8
UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
Texas St. 69.6 71.0 70.6 70.4
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.0 85.7 83.5 83.7
PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Washington
6 Texas A&M
7 Louisville
8 Tennessee
9 Nebraska
10 Wisconsin
11 Florida St.
12 Houston
13 Ole Miss
14 Western Michigan
15 Oklahoma
16 Baylor
17 Boise St.
18 Miami (Fla)
19 Virginia Tech
20 LSU
21 West Virginia
22 Florida
23 Stanford
24 South Florida
25 Auburn
26 Arkansas
27 Utah
28 Georgia
29 USC
30 Washington St.
31 Arizona St.
32 Colorado
33 North Carolina
34 Navy
35 North Carolina St.
36 Memphis
37 TCU
38 UCLA
39 Penn St.
40 Pittsburgh
41 Air Force
42 Kansas St.
43 Toledo
44 Wake Forest
45 Oklahoma St.
46 Iowa
47 BYU
48 Troy
49 Maryland
50 Georgia Tech
51 Indiana
52 San Diego St.
53 California
54 Texas Tech
55 Tulsa
56 Appalachian St.
57 Northwestern
58 Georgia Southern
59 Minnesota
60 Central Michigan
61 Mississippi St.
62 Central Florida
63 Oregon
64 Kentucky
65 Akron
66 Michigan St.
67 Texas
68 Louisiana Tech
69 Wyoming
70 Western Kentucky
71 Arizona
72 South Carolina
73 Temple
74 Notre Dame
75 Old Dominion
76 Southern Miss.
77 Boston College
78 Duke
79 Ohio
80 South Alabama
81 Connecticut
82 Middle Tennessee
83 Missouri
84 Army
85 Virginia
86 Tulane
87 East Carolina
88 Vanderbilt
89 Cincinnati
90 Oregon St.
91 Colorado St.
92 Purdue
93 Eastern Michigan
94 Rutgers
95 Utah St.
96 Illinois
97 Syracuse
98 Idaho
99 Iowa St.
100 Hawaii
101 UL-Lafayette
102 Northern Illinois
103 UTSA
104 Ball St.
105 Arkansas St.
106 Nevada
107 Georgia St.
108 SMU
109 Texas St.
110 Marshall
111 New Mexico
112 North Texas
113 UNLV
114 New Mexico St.
115 Kent St.
116 Bowling Green
117 Kansas
118 UL-Monroe
119 Massachusetts
120 Florida Int’l.
121 Buffalo
122 Charlotte
123 San Jose St.
124 Fresno St.
125 Florida Atlantic
126 UTEP
127 Miami (O)
128 Rice

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 12-15
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wednesday, October 12      
UL-Lafayette Appalachian St. -18.1 -8.1 -18.2
         
Thursday, October 13      
East Carolina Navy -6.0 -3.9 -5.5
         
         
Friday, October 14      
Louisville Duke 31.3 24.9 32.5
Tulane Memphis -18.6 -10.5 -16.6
Fresno St. San Diego St. -18.5 -12.6 -21.2
BYU Mississippi St. 3.9 -0.1 4.6
         
Saturday, October 15      
Georgia Vanderbilt 11.7 14.1 12.7
Clemson North Carolina St. 21.6 16.7 21.2
Purdue Iowa -15.9 -14.7 -16.1
Oklahoma Kansas St. 15.7 10.9 15.6
Texas Tech West Virginia 2.2 2.4 0.9
Rutgers Illinois -3.9 -3.0 -4.3
Maryland Minnesota 3.4 8.1 1.8
Georgia Tech Georgia Southern 20.5 16.2 17.4
Virginia Pittsburgh -7.9 -6.6 -7.5
Ohio U Eastern Michigan 11.9 16.4 10.7
Miami (O) Kent St. -1.0 -1.2 -0.1
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky -3.0 1.7 -3.4
Akron Western Michigan -18.8 -12.4 -18.8
Florida St. Wake Forest 18.8 13.8 18.5
Buffalo Ball St. -9.2 -3.0 -9.4
Toledo Bowling Green 22.3 20.8 23.4
Northern Illinois Central Michigan -2.3 -2.7 -1.9
Massachusetts Louisiana Tech -8.8 -3.1 -8.8
Baylor Kansas 28.1 22.2 31.4
Tennessee Alabama -7.6 -3.7 -7.7
Arizona USC -8.5 -6.7 -7.5
Air Force (*) New Mexico 8.8 6.6 8.7
Michigan St. Northwestern 2.5 6.6 2.1
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina 8.1 7.4 8.4
Troy Georgia St. 13.9 14.0 14.0
Indiana Nebraska -7.9 -0.7 -7.7
Syracuse Virginia Tech -18.1 -20.6 -20.6
Oregon St. Utah -12.3 -11.2 -12.1
Florida Missouri 12.6 16.2 11.2
Idaho New Mexico St. 6.2 8.8 6.6
Charlotte Florida Int’l -6.2 -5.4 -5.9
Marshall Florida Atlantic 12.9 10.7 11.1
Rice UTSA 1.0 0.8 -1.9
Arkansas Ole Miss -1.6 0.1 -3.6
UL-Monroe Texas St. 2.0 5.5 1.5
Arkansas St. South Alabama 6.7 1.4 6.9
South Florida Connecticut 17.1 16.8 18.1
Houston Tulsa 20.3 16.0 21.7
Texas Iowa St. 14.8 16.0 14.6
LSU Southern Miss. 34.5 28.3 33.1
Notre Dame Stanford 2.5 5.7 2.3
Central Florida Temple -3.9 -1.3 -3.7
Colorado Arizona St. 10.4 6.7 11.5
Wisconsin Ohio St. -8.5 -9.9 -9.1
Boise St. Colorado St. 26.9 25.7 28.1
Washington St. UCLA 4.1 2.2 4.7
San Jose St. Nevada -0.5 -3 -1.5
Hawaii UNLV -0.1 -5.2 -0.8
         
(*) Game to be played in Dallas
FBS vs. FCS Week 7  
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 31

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA Colorado St. vs. Louisiana Tech
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Washington St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Connecticut vs. Appalachian St.
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Ga. Southern
Miami Beach AAC MAC Central Florida vs. Toledo
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU Air Force vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ball St. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA South Florida vs. Western Mich.
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. Texas
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Arkansas St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. Hawaii
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Memphis vs. Pittsburgh
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten [Akron] vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND [Southern Miss.] vs. Wake Forest
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Minnesota vs. North Texas
Military ACC/ND AAC Georgia Tech vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech vs. California
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten N.Carolina St. vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Virginia Tech vs. TCU
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. USC
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Arkansas
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulsa vs. [South Alabama]
Belk ACC/ND SEC North Carolina vs. Auburn
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. Arizona St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. LSU
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Florida St. vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC UTSA vs. Idaho
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Indiana vs. [Army]
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Tennessee
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Georgia
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Miami (Fla.) vs. Florida
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Ole Miss
Cotton At-Large At-Large Boise St. vs. Baylor
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Nat’l Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.
           
[Team] At-Large Selection

October 3, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 5-8, 2016

5-7 Bowl Teams Could Increase This Year

Last year, Minnesota, Nebraska, and San Jose State finished with 5-7 regular season records but received bowl bids when only 77 FBS teams were bowl eligible at the end of the season.  These three schools held the three highest Academic Progress Rate (APR) Scores of the teams finishing 5-7.  As luck would have it, all three schools won their bowl games.

This year, the number of teams failing to reach 6-6 or better records could be fewer than last year’s 77.  It could be as low as 71 or 72, meaning there could be bowls where both teams are 5-7, and there could be bowls that have to invite teams with fanbases so small, they could arrive at the bowl in a bus.

The logical reply is that there are too many bowls, and this is quite obvious to all with half a brain.  The actual reply is that these bowls exist to make money for the sponsors, or at least to attempt to make money for the sponsors (advertising plays a major part in making money for a corporation).

The intelligent thing to do would be to expand the playoffs to eight teams, and use seven bowls to play these games.  Then, cap the number of bowls so that there can be no more than 40 in a single season.  With seven of the 40 being used for the Playoffs, and with eight teams qualifying for the Playoffs, 66 additional teams would receive bowl bids, removing the bottom six of the current 80 without a bowl.  In most years, there should be 66 bowl eligible teams after the Playoff spots had been awarded.

Best of all, with an expansion to eight Playoff teams, all five Power 5 Conference Champions could be guaranteed an automatic spot in the Playoffs.  It would leave room for three at-large teams with the top Group of 5 team getting one of those three bids.

With a need for up to six to eight 5-7 teams to fill bowl spots this year, the APR scores could go quite low, because maybe a dozen schools will finish 5-7.  Let’s take a look at the possible contenders for 5-7 bowl invitations.

Power 5 Leagues

Atlantic Coast Conference

Boston College, Duke, North Carolina St., and Virginia are battling it out for bowl eligibility, and Wake Forest and Georgia Tech could fall back into this pack.  Syracuse is on the outside, looking in, but the Orangemen cannot be eliminated, as Dino Babers creates major headaches for defensive coordinators.

The ACC should have 10 Bowl Eligible participants, counting Notre Dame as one of the 10.  Clemson is an odds-on team to make the Playoffs, while Louisville should earn a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Miami, North Carolina, or Virginia Tech could sneak in as a third conference member playing in a NY6 bowl, and the league has 10 bowl allotments to fill.  This would leave two bowls without ACC bowl eligible teams, likely the Quick Lane and St. Petersburg Bowls.  The ACC voted in the Spring to require 7-5 records for bowl eligibility, but this is just a ceremonial rule until the rest of the FBS follows suit.  There will be 6-6 teams in this league playing in bowls.

Big 12

Texas now appears headed to a probable 5-7 record, and Charles Strong will not survive such a performance in Austin.  Kansas State and Texas Tech are most likely going to be bowl eligible, while Iowa State and Kansas are sure not to be.  That leaves seven bowl eligible teams.  The league most likely will be out in the cold in the Playoff race, as Oklahoma won’t get in with two wins, and neither Baylor nor West Virginia do not look like 12-0 teams.

However, it is possible and actually probable that the number two team in this league will end up in the Cotton Bowl, as one of the NY6 selections.  This means seven bowl eligible teams will come up one short for the Big 12’s seven bowl bids.  The Armed Forces Bowl would be the odd-bowl out.

Big Ten

The Big Ten may not be as strong overall as the SEC, but the top half surely is right there at the top.  Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska remain undefeated overall, as some expected, but Maryland is now 4-0 under first year coach D.J. Durkin, the former assistant to Jim Harbaugh and before that Urban Meyer.  Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan State figure to become bowl eligible, while Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern will compete for bowl eligibility.  Looking at the schedules, it is our current opinion that Iowa and Northwestern will finish 5-7, while Illinois loses at least eight games.

The Ohio State-Michigan winner is an odds-on favorite to claim the number one or number two overall seed in the Playoffs after disposing of the West Division champion in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The loser of this game should head to Pasadena, while the third best team in the league competes with the third best ACC team for the final NY6 Bowl spot.

We see nine league teams gaining bowl eligibility, and for now, we are going with just two making NY6 appearances.  This would require 10 bowl eligible teams, so the Heart of Dallas Bowl would be forced to find a replacement.

Pac-12

This is where there could be a lot of interesting happenings.  Who thought that Oregon might not be bowl eligible this season?  The Ducks have the look of 5-7.  Washington State, California, Arizona, and the UCLA-USC loser will contend for the final bowl spots, with three of the four probably gaining bowl eligiblity.  At the moment, we have Arizona as the odd team out.

The key in the Pac-12 is Washington.  Can the Huskies run the table, win the Pac-12 Championship Game, and make the Playoffs at 13-0?  The PiRates believe this league is too tough to win out on the road, and UW has road games remaining against Oregon, Utah, Cal, and Washington St.  It is our belief that the Huskies will go 12-1 and miss out on the Playoffs if Houston runs the table.

Because of this, UW would then play in the Rose Bowl.  Due to the parity, we do not foresee a second Pac-12 team receving a NY6 Bowl bid, and the league only has seven bowl tie-ins.  With nine probably bowl eligible teams, two of them would be shipped to other bowls as at-large invitees.  Not to worry, because there will be ample spots available and a team like Cal or Washington State would be at the top of the priority list.

SEC

Assuming Alabama continues to add to their dynasty, put the Crimson Tide in the Playoffs as one of the top two seeds.  The winner of this week’s Texas A&M-Tennessee game could finish with 11 wins and definitely receive the Sugar Bowl bid, while the loser could receive the Orange Bowl bid.

Now, look at the bottom.  In the East, South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt, and in the West, Mississippi State will all contend for 5-7 records.  One of these five should be exactly 5-7, and there is a strong possibility that one of the 5-7 teams will earn a bowl bid.

Considering just bowl eligible teams, the SEC is looking at nine getting to 6-6 or better.  When you remove the NY6 invitees, it leaves six schools for the remaining nine bowls, so the Independence, Birmingham, and Music City Bowls are likely to invite at-large teams.

Group of 5 Leagues

AAC

Will Houston run the table, including a win over Louisville?  If so, the Cougars stand a 50-50 chance of making the Playoffs.  Remember, that game with the Cardinals is in Houston.  Houston is virtually guaranteed at least a NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl if they do not make the Playoffs, so the AAC will need nine bowl eligible teams to satisfy its bowl allotments.

Our crystal ball says that seven AAC teams will become bowl eligible, so there will be two more bowl openings for at-large invitees.  Since this league does not prioritize their bowls, and only Navy is really tied to one bowl, it is a pure guess to select the unfortunate bowls that will have to find replacement teams.

As for 5-7 possibles, it would not surprise us if UConn finishes with that record.  Cincinnati could fall into that category as well.  We had Central Florida in that boat last week, but we now believe UCF will get to 6-6.

CUSA

Conference USA is out of any NY6 consideration this year, so it is a cut and dry six bowl bids with a possible seventh with a secondary allotment at the Independence Bowl.  It looks like six schools will be bowl eligible, so once again the Independence Bowl sponsors will be burning the Midnight oil trying to find teams.

MAC

In past years, the Mid-American Conference has benefited from the lack of bowl eligible teams elsewhere and sent one or two extra teams to bowls.  We see more of the same this year, as the league has five bowl tie-ins and it looks like seven teams will be bowl eligible.

It is a long shot, but Western Michigan could sneak into the Cotton Bowl if the Broncos run the table and Houston and Boise State both lose a game.  For now, we say WMU wins the MAC with a 12-1 record and possibly 13-0.  At 13-0, some back room deals could be made to take the Broncos out of a MAC bowl and pair them up with a possible undefeated team from another Group of 5 league.

Pay close attention to the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game in Mid-November.  The winner is likely to squeeze in as the seventh bowl eligible team in the league.  If EMU can win this game, it would be the first time the Eagles make a bowl since 1987.

MWC

San Diego State’s losing to South Alabama hurt Boise State’s chances to pad a resume in the event that Houston loses a game this year.  The Broncos could go 13-0 and not make a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  They still must get past Air Force, and the Falcons have yet to lose this year.

This league is very muddled at this point, and there could be more teams with seven losses than in any other conference.  In the Mountain Division, the bottom four teams could all finish 5-7, but the odds are that one of the four will get to 6-6.  As of today, we are going to tap Wyoming to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and make Coach Craig Bohl a top candidate in Power 5 Conference coaching vacancies in December.  Bohl turned North Dakota State into the Alabama of FCS football.

Colorado State, Utah State, and New Mexico look like 5-7 teams.  The Aggies might be the luckiest ducks in football if they finish 5-7 this year.  See below to the end of this commentary to discover why.

In the West Division, the key is Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors will receive a ticket to the front of the seven-loss line if they lose seven games, because they will be 6-7 and not 5-7.  The NCAA guidelines state that a 6-7 team trumps any 5-7 team in bowl prioritization.  If UH finishes 5-8 or worse, then a host of other 5-7 teams will breathe minor sighs of relief.

The other part of the equation in the West Division is what happens with the two teams from the Silver State.  Nevada and UNLV are as mysterious as Area 51 this year.  The Wolf Pack played well at Notre Dame and then laid an egg in Hawaii.  The Rebels look to be on the cusp of turning things around with future star coach Tony Sanchez.  For our own sanity, we will give both schools promotions to 6-6, but that could change in a week.

Sun Belt

Like CUSA, the SBC is not a contender for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  The league has four bids with a secondary fifth bid, and in all likelihood, there will be four bowl eligible teams.

Independents

We count Notre Dame as an ACC team, since they are open to appear in the ACC’s bowls and can leapfrog over any ACC team with a one game better record.

Massachusetts is not a bowl contender this year, but the Minutemen are an improved school and could be in contention in the next two years.

Army and BYU are the other two independent schools, and the Black Knights of West Point are going to end their bowl drought this year.  BYU is on the bubble.  The Cougars are going to have to fight and claw their way to a 6-6 record.  BYU is guaranteed a spot in the Poinsettia Bowl if they get to 6-6.  Army does not have a bowl tie-in this year due to their failure to compete for a bowl for the last several years, but the Cadets will definitely get a bowl bid with a 6-6 or better record.  They should be at least 7-5, and who knows: they could even win that 12th regular season game this year.

The Academic Progress Rate

The APR decides which 5-7 teams get bowl bids and which do not if there are openings remaining after all bowl eligible teams have been selected.  We believe this week that four 5-7 teams will receive bowl invitations with just 76 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  With four bowl openings, the top four 5-7 teams according to APR scores would receive those bids.  It does not matter if Oregon or Iowa is 5-7 and gets overlooked as a school like Duke or Boston College is also 5-7.  Here is the list of probable 5-7 teams ranked in order of APR score.  Because so many of the top APR scores belong to teams that figure to already be bowl eligible, it could take the 75th best APR score to fill a bowl.

  1. Duke
  2. Northwestern
  3. Vanderbilt
  4. Georgia Tech
  5. Central Florida
  6. Illinois
  7. Boston College
  8. Missouri
  9. Utah St.
  10. South Carolina

What this means is that if Duke finishes 5-7 and there is at least one bowl spot open, the Blue Devils automatically receive that bid.

The rules state that the 5-7 teams that qualify for bowls get to select the remaining bowls that are open in the order of their APR ranking.  For example, let’s say there are four bowl spots remaining and Duke, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, and Georgia Tech all finish 5-7.

Duke would select which of the four bowls that they wish to accept an invitation.  Northwestern would then select which of the remaining three bowls that they wish to accept.  Vanderbilt would then select from the remaining two bowls, and Georgia Tech would receive what was left.

Our wacky bowl selections are at the conclusion of this commentary.

Here are This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Predictive

For newcomers to this site, we supply two types of ratings.  Predictive ratings look forward to the next week’s games and do not act as rankings.  You will see that Louisville is rated ahead of Clemson in our Predictive Ratings, because we believe that if the two teams played this week on a neutral field, Louisville would win.

We look at each game and re-create a logical score of each game based on the statistical and play-by-play data.  Two 28-14 scores can be totally different.  In one instance, the game could have been 28-0 with five minutes left to play, and the second string of the losing team scored two late TDs.  In another instance, the score could be 21-14 with a few minutes left to play, and the trailing team driving in the Red Zone for the tying score, before a pick six at the end makes the game 28-14 rather than 21-21.  Our ratings differentiate between these two outcomes.

We have three separate Predictive Ratings, each using a different logarithm to come up with a power rating number.  We then supply an average for the three.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.2 124.1 131.0 128.8
2 Ohio St. 126.6 125.7 128.1 126.8
3 Louisville 127.6 121.9 127.7 125.7
4 Michigan 124.5 122.0 125.0 123.8
5 Washington 124.4 116.9 124.3 121.9
6 Clemson 124.8 116.8 123.8 121.8
7 LSU 123.6 118.4 122.8 121.6
8 Tennessee 121.7 118.3 121.4 120.5
9 Oklahoma 120.3 117.8 120.3 119.5
10 Miami 120.9 113.9 120.9 118.6
11 Houston 118.3 116.2 120.6 118.4
12 Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.1 116.6
13 Florida St. 118.8 112.0 117.9 116.2
14 North Carolina 118.1 111.5 117.8 115.8
15 Texas A&M 116.2 114.7 115.9 115.6
16 Auburn 115.8 114.2 115.8 115.3
17 Oklahoma St. 114.9 115.7 114.9 115.2
18 Stanford 117.7 110.7 116.6 115.0
19 Ole Miss 117.1 110.9 116.6 114.9
20 Wisconsin 114.4 112.4 114.9 113.9
21 Colorado 114.8 110.4 115.2 113.5
22 Pittsburgh 114.8 111.2 114.1 113.4
23 TCU 113.1 114.2 112.8 113.4
24 Florida 112.4 115.0 110.6 112.7
25 USC 114.7 110.5 112.0 112.4
26 UCLA 112.7 111.2 112.4 112.1
27 Nebraska 112.9 109.3 112.9 111.7
28 Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
29 Baylor 111.1 111.2 111.7 111.3
30 South Florida 111.9 109.2 112.9 111.3
31 Western Michigan 110.9 109.8 112.8 111.2
32 Mississippi St. 112.0 109.8 111.1 111.0
33 Iowa 112.2 109.1 111.5 110.9
34 Texas 110.0 111.7 109.0 110.2
35 Arkansas 112.5 108.1 109.9 110.2
36 Michigan St. 110.2 109.6 108.5 109.4
37 Boise St. 108.1 109.2 109.6 109.0
38 Washington St. 109.5 106.7 109.4 108.6
39 Georgia 108.9 108.3 108.3 108.5
40 Oregon 109.0 107.5 108.2 108.2
41 Kansas St. 106.9 109.8 106.8 107.8
42 Utah 110.3 104.7 108.0 107.7
43 Georgia Tech 109.4 105.1 108.3 107.6
44 BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
45 North Carolina St. 108.1 105.8 107.6 107.2
46 West Virginia 107.6 106.5 107.0 107.0
47 Maryland 106.4 109.7 104.4 106.8
48 Arizona St. 107.0 106.5 105.8 106.5
49 Texas Tech 107.2 106.1 105.3 106.2
50 Northwestern 107.5 102.6 106.0 105.4
51 Penn St. 104.7 106.6 103.5 104.9
52 Toledo 104.8 103.2 105.8 104.6
53 Memphis 106.5 102.3 104.8 104.6
54 Minnesota 103.8 102.5 103.5 103.3
55 Indiana 101.9 105.3 101.2 102.8
56 Arizona 103.8 101.5 102.7 102.7
57 Air Force 102.3 102.7 102.9 102.6
58 California 105.8 98.2 103.7 102.6
59 Virginia 103.3 101.0 102.8 102.4
60 Missouri 102.7 101.7 102.3 102.3
61 San Diego St. 101.5 99.1 103.9 101.5
62 Boston College 101.4 101.2 101.3 101.3
63 Wake Forest 101.8 100.2 101.1 101.1
64 Vanderbilt 102.5 98.6 101.2 100.8
65 Temple 100.4 100.7 100.9 100.7
66 Tulsa 98.9 101.2 99.6 99.9
67 Western Kentucky 100.9 96.5 102.0 99.8
68 Syracuse 101.3 97.7 99.6 99.6
69 Central Michigan 98.8 100.2 99.7 99.6
70 South Carolina 99.9 99.2 99.4 99.5
71 Duke 99.6 99.9 98.2 99.2
72 Cincinnati 98.5 98.9 98.7 98.7
73 Appalachian St. 97.3 96.8 99.1 97.7
74 Navy 97.8 97.9 97.2 97.7
75 Iowa St. 97.9 97.5 97.1 97.5
76 Kentucky 96.4 98.7 95.3 96.8
77 Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
78 Illinois 97.8 94.5 97.0 96.5
79 Connecticut 96.7 94.5 96.4 95.9
80 Utah St. 94.4 96.7 94.3 95.1
81 Troy 92.9 97.5 94.9 95.1
82 Southern Mississippi 94.4 94.9 95.3 94.9
83 Middle Tennessee 94.1 95.5 94.6 94.7
84 Central Florida 93.7 96.1 94.0 94.6
85 Ohio 91.5 99.7 92.3 94.5
86 Rutgers 95.6 93.2 94.2 94.4
87 New Mexico 92.5 95.2 93.2 93.7
88 Northern Illinois 92.0 93.5 92.9 92.8
89 Purdue 93.2 91.5 92.2 92.3
90 Georgia Southern 91.5 91.3 93.8 92.2
91 Oregon St. 94.2 90.1 92.2 92.2
92 East Carolina 91.3 93.6 91.3 92.1
93 Marshall 90.0 92.7 91.7 91.5
94 Louisiana Tech 90.0 92.3 91.1 91.1
95 UNLV 89.0 93.4 89.2 90.5
96 SMU 89.9 89.6 91.9 90.5
97 Old Dominion 88.1 91.5 88.5 89.4
98 Akron 86.9 92.7 88.4 89.3
99 Nevada 87.5 90.6 88.5 88.9
100 Arkansas St. 87.5 89.5 89.0 88.7
101 San Jose St. 87.5 87.9 87.8 87.7
102 Ball St. 85.8 87.6 86.6 86.7
103 South Alabama 83.8 90.9 85.2 86.6
104 Tulane 84.8 89.2 85.5 86.5
105 Wyoming 85.4 85.7 85.8 85.7
106 Colorado St. 84.6 86.9 84.9 85.5
107 Miami (O) 84.4 85.5 86.1 85.3
108 Kansas 83.7 90.1 80.8 84.9
109 Kent St. 83.8 85.3 84.0 84.4
110 Bowling Green 84.2 84.0 83.6 83.9
111 Georgia St. 81.7 86.4 83.6 83.9
112 Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
113 Eastern Michigan 81.7 85.3 82.6 83.2
114 Rice 80.7 87.5 80.7 83.0
115 UTSA 79.0 86.5 81.6 82.4
116 Florida Atlantic 79.7 84.3 82.1 82.0
117 Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.6 81.4
118 Buffalo 78.0 85.8 79.1 81.0
119 Florida International 78.5 83.9 78.2 80.2
120 Hawaii 80.7 79.4 79.8 80.0
121 UL-Lafayette 76.7 84.2 78.4 79.8
122 Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
123 North Texas 75.3 78.1 75.5 76.3
124 New Mexico St. 73.2 76.4 74.1 74.6
125 UTEP 71.7 75.9 73.1 73.6
126 UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
127 Charlotte 68.7 75.0 69.8 71.2
128 Texas St. 70.1 71.3 71.1 70.8

Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings are more like the poll rankings you see in the media, such as the AP and Coaches Polls.  These ratings attempt to rank from best to worst based on what the teams have done so far this year.  They are not meant to predict outcomes of future games.  Wins and schedule strength matter in these ratings, and whether a team deserved to win because they dominated a game or lucked out by winning a game they would have lost nine times out of 10, doesn’t affect their rating.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.9 109.2 112.9 111.3
Temple 100.4 100.7 100.9 100.7
Cincinnati 98.5 98.9 98.7 98.7
Connecticut 96.7 94.5 96.4 95.9
Central Florida 93.7 96.1 94.0 94.6
East Carolina 91.3 93.6 91.3 92.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 118.3 116.2 120.6 118.4
Memphis 106.5 102.3 104.8 104.6
Tulsa 98.9 101.2 99.6 99.9
Navy 97.8 97.9 97.2 97.7
SMU 89.9 89.6 91.9 90.5
Tulane 84.8 89.2 85.5 86.5
         
AAC Averages 99.1 99.2 99.5 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.6 121.9 127.7 125.7
Clemson 124.8 116.8 123.8 121.8
Florida St. 118.8 112.0 117.9 116.2
North Carolina St. 108.1 105.8 107.6 107.2
Boston College 101.4 101.2 101.3 101.3
Wake Forest 101.8 100.2 101.1 101.1
Syracuse 101.3 97.7 99.6 99.6
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 120.9 113.9 120.9 118.6
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.1 116.6
North Carolina 118.1 111.5 117.8 115.8
Pittsburgh 114.8 111.2 114.1 113.4
Georgia Tech 109.4 105.1 108.3 107.6
Virginia 103.3 101.0 102.8 102.4
Duke 99.6 99.9 98.2 99.2
         
ACC Averages 111.9 108.2 111.3 110.5
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.3 117.8 120.3 119.5
Oklahoma St. 114.9 115.7 114.9 115.2
TCU 113.1 114.2 112.8 113.4
Baylor 111.1 111.2 111.7 111.3
Texas 110.0 111.7 109.0 110.2
Kansas St. 106.9 109.8 106.8 107.8
West Virginia 107.6 106.5 107.0 107.0
Texas Tech 107.2 106.1 105.3 106.2
Iowa St. 97.9 97.5 97.1 97.5
Kansas 83.7 90.1 80.8 84.9
         
Big 12 Averages 107.3 108.1 106.6 107.3
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 126.6 125.7 128.1 126.8
Michigan 124.5 122.0 125.0 123.8
Michigan St. 110.2 109.6 108.5 109.4
Maryland 106.4 109.7 104.4 106.8
Penn St. 104.7 106.6 103.5 104.9
Indiana 101.9 105.3 101.2 102.8
Rutgers 95.6 93.2 94.2 94.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 114.4 112.4 114.9 113.9
Nebraska 112.9 109.3 112.9 111.7
Iowa 112.2 109.1 111.5 110.9
Northwestern 107.5 102.6 106.0 105.4
Minnesota 103.8 102.5 103.5 103.3
Illinois 97.8 94.5 97.0 96.5
Purdue 93.2 91.5 92.2 92.3
         
Big Ten Averages 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.4
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 100.9 96.5 102.0 99.8
Middle Tennessee 94.1 95.5 94.6 94.7
Marshall 90.0 92.7 91.7 91.5
Old Dominion 88.1 91.5 88.5 89.4
Florida Atlantic 79.7 84.3 82.1 82.0
Florida International 78.5 83.9 78.2 80.2
Charlotte 68.7 75.0 69.8 71.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 94.4 94.9 95.3 94.9
Louisiana Tech 90.0 92.3 91.1 91.1
Rice 80.7 87.5 80.7 83.0
UTSA 79.0 86.5 81.6 82.4
North Texas 75.3 78.1 75.5 76.3
UTEP 71.7 75.9 73.1 73.6
         
CUSA Averages 83.9 87.3 84.9 85.4
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
         
Independents Averages 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.5 99.7 92.3 94.5
Akron 86.9 92.7 88.4 89.3
Miami (O) 84.4 85.5 86.1 85.3
Kent St. 83.8 85.3 84.0 84.4
Bowling Green 84.2 84.0 83.6 83.9
Buffalo 78.0 85.8 79.1 81.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 110.9 109.8 112.8 111.2
Toledo 104.8 103.2 105.8 104.6
Central Michigan 98.8 100.2 99.7 99.6
Northern Illinois 92.0 93.5 92.9 92.8
Ball St. 85.8 87.6 86.6 86.7
Eastern Michigan 81.7 85.3 82.6 83.2
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.7 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 108.1 109.2 109.6 109.0
Air Force 102.3 102.7 102.9 102.6
Utah St. 94.4 96.7 94.3 95.1
New Mexico 92.5 95.2 93.2 93.7
Wyoming 85.4 85.7 85.8 85.7
Colorado St. 84.6 86.9 84.9 85.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 101.5 99.1 103.9 101.5
UNLV 89.0 93.4 89.2 90.5
Nevada 87.5 90.6 88.5 88.9
San Jose St. 87.5 87.9 87.8 87.7
Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.6 81.4
Hawaii 80.7 79.4 79.8 80.0
         
MWC Averages 91.1 92.7 91.6 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 124.4 116.9 124.3 121.9
Stanford 117.7 110.7 116.6 115.0
Washington St. 109.5 106.7 109.4 108.6
Oregon 109.0 107.5 108.2 108.2
California 105.8 98.2 103.7 102.6
Oregon St. 94.2 90.1 92.2 92.2
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colorado 114.8 110.4 115.2 113.5
USC 114.7 110.5 112.0 112.4
UCLA 112.7 111.2 112.4 112.1
Utah 110.3 104.7 108.0 107.7
Arizona St. 107.0 106.5 105.8 106.5
Arizona 103.8 101.5 102.7 102.7
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.3 106.3 109.2 108.6
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 121.7 118.3 121.4 120.5
Florida 112.4 115.0 110.6 112.7
Georgia 108.9 108.3 108.3 108.5
Missouri 102.7 101.7 102.3 102.3
Vanderbilt 102.5 98.6 101.2 100.8
South Carolina 99.9 99.2 99.4 99.5
Kentucky 96.4 98.7 95.3 96.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.2 124.1 131.0 128.8
LSU 123.6 118.4 122.8 121.6
Texas A&M 116.2 114.7 115.9 115.6
Auburn 115.8 114.2 115.8 115.3
Ole Miss 117.1 110.9 116.6 114.9
Mississippi St. 112.0 109.8 111.1 111.0
Arkansas 112.5 108.1 109.9 110.2
         
SEC Averages 112.4 110.0 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 97.3 96.8 99.1 97.7
Troy 92.9 97.5 94.9 95.1
Georgia Southern 91.5 91.3 93.8 92.2
Arkansas St. 87.5 89.5 89.0 88.7
South Alabama 83.8 90.9 85.2 86.6
Georgia St. 81.7 86.4 83.6 83.9
UL-Lafayette 76.7 84.2 78.4 79.8
Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
New Mexico St. 73.2 76.4 74.1 74.6
UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
Texas St. 70.1 71.3 71.1 70.8
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 85.6 83.4 83.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.4 110.0 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 111.9 108.2 111.3 110.5
3 Pac-12 110.3 106.3 109.2 108.6
4 Big Ten 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.4
5 Big 12 107.3 108.1 106.6 107.3
6 Independents 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
7 AAC 99.1 99.2 99.5 99.2
8 MWC 91.1 92.7 91.6 91.8
9 MAC 90.2 92.7 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 83.9 87.3 84.9 85.4
11 Sun Belt 81.9 85.6 83.4 83.6

This Week’s Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 5-8
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wednesday, October 5      
Arkansas St. Georgia Southern -1.0 1.2 -1.8
         
Thursday, October 6      
Louisiana Tech Western Kentucky -7.9 -1.2 -7.9
Memphis Temple 9.1 4.6 6.9
         
Friday, October 7      
Boston College Clemson -20.4 -12.6 -19.5
Central Florida Tulane 11.9 9.9 11.5
Tulsa SMU 12.0 14.6 10.7
New Mexico Boise St. -12.6 -11.0 -13.4
         
Saturday, October 8      
Connecticut Cincinnati 1.2 -1.4 0.7
North Carolina St. Notre Dame -2.0 -0.9 -1.0
Mississippi St. Auburn -0.8 -1.4 -1.7
Penn St. Maryland 1.3 -0.1 2.1
Florida LSU -8.2 -0.4 -9.2
Minnesota Iowa -5.4 -3.6 -5.0
UTSA Southern Miss. -12.9 -5.9 -11.2
Kansas TCU -26.9 -21.6 -29.5
Texas (N) Oklahoma -10.3 -6.1 -11.3
South Florida East Carolina 23.6 18.6 24.6
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 8.4 9.1 8.8
Ohio Bowling Green 9.3 17.7 10.7
Eastern Michigan Toledo -20.6 -15.4 -20.7
Navy Houston -17.5 -15.3 -20.4
Akron Miami (O) 4.5 9.2 4.3
Texas A&M Tennessee -2.5 -0.6 -2.5
North Carolina Virginia Tech 4.5 -1.7 3.7
Florida Atlantic Charlotte 23.5 11.8 14.8
Buffalo Kent St. -3.3 3.0 -2.4
Georgia St. Texas St. 14.1 17.6 15.0
Wyoming Air Force -13.9 -14.0 -14.1
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 20.0 21.2 20.8
Ohio St. Indiana 27.7 23.4 29.9
Michigan St. BYU 3.7 9.0 2.4
Illinois Purdue 7.1 8.5 7.3
Duke Army 9.8 1.7 5.4
Central Michigan Ball St. 16.0 15.6 16.1
Kentucky Vanderbilt -3.1 2.9 -2.9
USC Colorado 2.9 3.1 -0.2
San Jose St. Hawaii 10.8 12.5 12.0
Old Dominion Massachusetts 10.0 6.5 9.1
Western Michigan Northern Illinois 21.9 19.3 22.9
Rutgers Michigan -25.9 -25.8 -27.8
Arkansas Alabama -15.7 -12.3 -18.1
Kansas St. Texas Tech 2.7 6.7 4.5
North Texas Marshall -11.7 -11.6 -13.2
Nevada Fresno St. 10.3 9.1 11.9
UL-Monroe Idaho -4.0 -4.9 -4.8
Wake Forest Syracuse 3.5 5.5 4.5
South Carolina Georgia -7.0 -7.1 -6.9
Oregon Washington -12.4 -6.4 -13.1
Miami (Fla) Florida St. 4.1 3.9 5.0
UTEP Florida Int’l. -4.3 -5.5 -2.6
Oregon St. California -8.6 -5.1 -8.5
Utah Arizona 9.5 6.2 8.3
Colorado St. Utah St. -6.8 -6.8 -6.4
San Diego St. UNLV 15.5 8.7 17.7
Arizona St. UCLA -2.7 -1.7 -3.6
Stanford Washington St. 11.2 7.0 10.2

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA Nevada vs. Louisiana Tech
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC USC vs. Boise St.
Cure AAC SBC [Army] vs. Appalachian St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Marshall vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Central Florida vs. Ohio U
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Tulsa vs. Western Mich.
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {Boston Coll.}
Dollar General MAC SBC Toledo vs. Ga. Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Southern Miss. vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND South Florida vs. Georgia Tech
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten [Ball St.] vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC/ND [Washington St.] vs. {South Carolina}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {Northwestern} vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC Wake Forest vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Colorado
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. UCLA
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Utah
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC [N.Illinois] vs. {Utah St.}
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Florida
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Notre Dame vs. Arizona St.
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Old Dominion vs. UNLV
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Penn St. vs. [California]
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Tennessee
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. LSU
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Houston
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Georgia vs. Nebraska
Cotton At-Large At-Large Baylor vs. Miami (Fla.)
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Nat’l Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} At-Large Selection of projected 5-7 team

 

 

 

 

September 19, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For September 22-24, 2016

What an incredible college football week has just passed!  We told you last week that it could be the best September slate of college football games in years, and it lived up to the hype.

Guess what?  This weekend won’t exactly be chopped liver.  There are some excellent games on tap, and more conference games will be played this week.

First, some information about you guys and dolls.  We asked you to go to our sister site at http://www.piratings.webs.com and tell us who your favorite college and NFL teams happened to be.  We have received dozens of replies so far, and a pattern has developed.

Among the colleges mentioned, a large majority of you are Big Ten fans.  The number one school mentioned so far, and by quite a large margin, is Ohio State.  Number two surprised us, as we expected that an SEC school or six would be among the top ones you fine folks follow.  No SEC team received more than three votes, and that three belongs to Florida.  Number two behind the Buckeyes was their arch-rival Michigan, and in distant third place was the other Big Ten East biggie, Michigan State.

The NFL followed suit with upper Midwest fan support.  In a close race so far, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Chicago rank one-two-three.

It could be that the PiRate Ratings have a lot of upper Midwest support.  There are ties to Ohio State in a minor way, much less than the ties to Wisconsin, but it is there.  However, we expected a lot more SEC support, and it just didn’t come.  Wherefore art thou Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, and Aggie fans?

Okay, now to get down to business.  We will obviously comment on the 3 Big Ten schools first today, and then include other games of interest that you might want to follow this week.

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes get a well-timed week off after picking up the biggest win of the NCAA season against the Sooners in Norman.  Their next two games are home contests against Rutgers and Indiana, so Urban Meyer’s team will be 5-0 when they head up to Camp Randall Stadium on October 15.

The stats are intimidating to any future opponent: 56.7 points per game to 12.3 points allowed per game; 306 yards per game rushing to just 103 allowed per game; a total yards per game average of 545 to 279; the defense has intercepted nine passes in three games; and if that isn’t enough riches, the Buckeyes have the best kicking game in the nation so far with a 50+ yard punt average and a 47+ yard net punt average to go with perfect 100% accuracy on PATs and field goals.

Michigan

The Wolverines spotted improved Colorado a quick two touchdown lead before getting down to business and posting an impressive 17-point win at the Big House.  Penn State comes to Ann Arbor this week, after the Nittany Lions held off a pesky Temple team.  The Maize and Blue defense and special teams have scored or set up more points than they have allowed with interception returns, punt returns, and three blocked kicks so far.  At one time, in 1969, Penn State’s defense and special teams scored or set up more points than the defense allowed for the entire season.  That Penn State team finished undefeated, and if this Michigan team can continue to replicate that great 1969 Penn State team, there is no reason to think the Wolverines cannot run the table–at least head to the Giant Horseshoe at 11-0.  How much would another 11-0 vs. 11-0 matchup cost to purchase a ticket on the street this time?  Prices were highly inflated in 2006, when these two teams were undefeated and ranked 1-2.

As for this week, We don’t think James Franklin’s Nittany Lions will roar much.  They might hold Michigan under 40 points, but can they score more than 17?

 

Michigan St.

The Spartans looked like a different team between game one against Furman and game two against Notre Dame.  Now MSU hosts a Wisconsin team that must have overlooked Georgia State last week, but even overlooking the Panthers, UW should have won by 30.  Sparty’s defense held Notre Dame’s rushing game at bay all night, and a repeat performance against the Badgers will mean a double-digit win.  For the record, we do not believe they will stop the UW rush like they stopped the Notre Dame running game.

Tyler O’Connor looked like a pro prospect at times against the Irish secondary.  His one interception came on a deflection, and if you remove that deflection, he had a night Connor Cook would have been proud of.  Look for MSU to win another tight game by less than a touchdown.  The last three times these schools have played, the margins were all under a TD.

Other Games of Interest

Thursday Night:

Clemson at Georgia Tech

The CU win at Auburn does not look all that impressive after Texas A&M looked better in their win at Jordan-Hare.  The narrow win over Troy could not be erased by the slaughter over the FCS school that was so unprepared to play a Power 5 team, that their kick returner handed the Tigers a touchdown by tossing it to the back judge without downing the ball.  This Clemson team has started to resemble the Florida State team of 2014.  That FSU team was considerably weaker than the 2013 champion, but they still made it to the playoffs.  We are not sure this CU team is playoff worthy, but they have time to right the ship.

Georgia Tech is 3-0 and looks like a defensive juggernaut in the process.  However, a closer look shows their defensive performance has come against three teams that would have trouble scoring in 11 on 0 practice drills.  Tech’s next three games could see a reverse in defensive performance.  Still, the Yellow Jackets are mighty tough to prepare for, and when you take away two days of preparation, it could make this a rather interesting game to watch.

Saturday

Florida at Tennessee

Butch Jones’ legacy in Knoxville is like an almost finished book.  The one major chapter of his mystery novel is the one where you find out who did it.  If Florida did it, ole Butch may not get a chance to write the sequel.

Florida has won 11 straight games in this series.  The average score in this streak has been 29-16, although the last two have both been decided by a single point.  The Gators are going to have to make due with Austin Appleby at quarterback after starter Luke Del Rio injured his knee on a cheap shot tackle by North Texas.  Appleby would become the second former Purdue quarterback to start a game for an SEC team in the last two weeks (Danny Etling @ LSU).  After replacing Del Rio, Appleby completed passes of 11 and 19 yards against the Mean Green in his four attempts.  At Purdue, Appleby had a tendency to force throws where he should not have passed, and his interception rate was  4%, about 45% higher than the QB that sent him packing from West Lafayette.

Josh Dobbs has not been what he was expected to be this year.  It looks like the coaching staff has put a governor on his scrambling and is not calling for Dobbs to keep the ball on many designed running plays.  That might change this week, as the Vols need to pull out all the stops to move the ball against Geoff Collins’ defense.

Tennessee is not without major losses due to injury, and it affects a trio of excellent starting defensive players.  All-American punt returner and very good cornerback Cameron Sutton will be out for several weeks. All-SEC weakside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin should be able to play, but he will be far from 100%, and the Vols are hurting depthwise here, as middle linebacker Darrin Kirkland and backup hybrid linebacker/safety Quarte Sapp will miss the game.

Expect a low-scoring, hard-fought game that comes down to the final few minutes.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M in Arlington, TX (Dallas Cowboys Stadium)–The Southwest Classic

What can these two former Southwest Conference rivals do for a second encore after the last two games in Jerryworld went to overtime?  The Aggies won both games, and it would not surprise us again if the game was still to be decided late in the fourth quarter.  Arkansas has not beaten A&M since the Aggies joined the SEC.

Both teams have big wins already this year.  Arkansas won at TCU, while A&M topped UCLA, so they have been tested, and we expect a quality game from both sides.  It was hoped that Austin Allen would be able to approach his graduated brother Brandon’s stats at quarterback, but through three games, little brother has greatly surpassed expectations.  Add to this fact that running back Rawleigh Williams has done an admirable job replacing Alex Collins.  It has been the Razorback defense that has not quite lived up to expectations.

As for the Aggies, Kevin Sumlin has dealth with his critics in recent years since Johnny Manziel left College Station, and most of that criticism has come from subsequently weaker offenses year over year.  We may ask these critics why a 44-31 win is better than a 29-16 win?  This Aggie team can play defense, as most defenses led by legendary guru John Chavis tend to do.  Against Josh Rosen and UCLA, the Aggie defense produced five sacks and three interceptions.  Auburn tried to throw short, and A&M didn’t give up yards after the catch.

Arkansas will try to combine pounding the ball up the gut with vertical passes to Keon Hatcher combined with spreading the field and finding Drew Morgan, tight end Jeremy Sprinkle, and Dominique Reed.

Stanford at UCLA

The must-win games continue to allow Stanford a chance to stay in the playoff hunt.  A win over USC at home was just fine.  A win at UCLA and by a larger margin than the Bruins fell at Texas A&M, gives the Cardinal the much-needed ammunition to fight against the Clemson’s, Louisville’s, and Houston’s.  SU must run the table against a weaker Pac-12 slate, and a win at the Rose Bowl Saturday night pumps up their resume.  A loss, and it’s all up to Washington and Arizona State to carry the Pac-12 banner.

Boise St. at Oregon St.

The Broncos are now in a multi-team battle with South Florida, Houston, Memphis, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Toledo, and San Diego State for the NY6 Bowl Bid.  For that matter, throw in a surprising Army team into this mix and don’t eliminate the other two service academies just yet.

This game is Boise’s best resume builder for the rest of the season, even though the Beavers are at the bottom of the Pac-12.  It is almost required that BSU wins this game by at least 17 points, or they might have to be the last remaining undefeated team in December.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings–Predictive
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.1 123.6 130.9 128.5
2 Louisville 127.9 121.7 128.1 125.9
3 Ohio St. 122.9 122.2 124.4 123.2
4 LSU 124.0 118.3 123.0 121.8
5 Michigan 121.9 119.8 122.5 121.4
6 Tennessee 121.8 117.1 121.8 120.2
7 Oklahoma 120.0 117.3 119.9 119.1
8 Clemson 122.2 113.9 120.7 118.9
9 Stanford 121.4 114.2 120.3 118.6
10 Washington 121.0 113.2 121.1 118.4
11 Miami 120.1 112.8 120.0 117.6
12 Houston 115.5 113.6 117.7 115.6
13 Oklahoma St. 115.3 116.3 115.1 115.6
14 Florida St. 117.9 110.6 116.8 115.1
15 North Carolina 117.2 110.5 116.9 114.9
16 Virginia Tech 114.5 114.1 114.8 114.5
17 Texas A&M 114.8 113.8 114.8 114.5
18 Pittsburgh 115.9 111.4 115.0 114.1
19 Iowa 115.1 112.0 114.8 114.0
20 Auburn 113.9 112.4 113.8 113.4
21 Mississippi St. 114.4 111.7 113.7 113.3
22 Notre Dame 114.9 111.2 113.6 113.2
23 Florida 112.6 116.3 110.8 113.2
24 Michigan St. 113.5 112.5 111.7 112.6
25 Texas 112.1 113.6 111.2 112.3
26 TCU 111.9 113.5 111.5 112.3
27 USC 114.3 109.9 111.6 111.9
28 Oregon 112.3 111.0 111.5 111.6
29 Arkansas 113.7 108.8 111.0 111.2
30 South Florida 111.6 109.0 112.8 111.1
31 Ole Miss 113.6 107.1 112.4 111.0
32 Georgia 111.0 111.1 110.9 111.0
33 UCLA 111.4 110.4 111.0 110.9
34 Baylor 110.4 110.5 111.5 110.8
35 Nebraska 111.8 108.4 111.9 110.7
36 Wisconsin 111.1 109.0 111.7 110.6
37 Georgia Tech 111.0 107.2 110.4 109.5
38 Boise St. 108.0 109.4 110.3 109.2
39 Colorado 110.1 105.6 110.6 108.8
40 Utah 110.8 105.1 108.7 108.2
41 Kansas St. 107.2 110.2 107.1 108.2
42 BYU 110.3 103.6 109.7 107.9
43 Penn St. 107.2 109.0 105.9 107.4
44 Arizona St. 107.5 108.1 106.3 107.3
45 West Virginia 107.2 106.6 106.8 106.9
46 Western Michigan 106.8 104.8 108.6 106.7
47 Washington St. 107.6 104.8 107.5 106.7
48 North Carolina St. 106.9 104.7 106.3 106.0
49 San Diego St. 105.8 102.9 108.2 105.7
50 Minnesota 105.1 103.1 104.8 104.3
51 Central Michigan 103.0 105.7 104.2 104.3
52 Northwestern 106.4 101.2 104.8 104.1
53 Texas Tech 105.5 103.3 103.4 104.1
54 Toledo 104.2 102.8 105.2 104.1
55 Missouri 104.1 103.3 103.9 103.8
56 Indiana 101.8 106.3 101.4 103.2
57 Arizona 104.3 102.0 103.1 103.1
58 Cincinnati 101.9 102.5 102.6 102.4
59 Maryland 101.4 105.0 99.2 101.9
60 Memphis 103.7 99.6 102.0 101.8
61 California 105.0 96.6 102.7 101.4
62 Air Force 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 101.8 99.5 100.9 100.8
64 Tulsa 99.7 102.0 100.4 100.7
65 Vanderbilt 102.5 98.3 101.0 100.6
66 South Carolina 100.9 99.9 100.4 100.4
67 Boston College 100.5 99.5 100.0 100.0
68 Temple 99.9 99.6 100.3 100.0
69 Western Kentucky 100.8 96.4 102.0 99.7
70 Syracuse 101.4 97.6 99.2 99.4
71 Virginia 100.4 97.4 99.7 99.2
72 Duke 99.0 99.8 97.3 98.7
73 Navy 98.8 98.7 98.3 98.6
74 Appalachian St. 97.7 96.4 99.8 98.0
75 Army 93.8 102.0 97.1 97.6
76 Connecticut 97.5 95.3 97.7 96.9
77 Rutgers 98.0 95.5 96.4 96.7
78 Purdue 97.6 95.2 96.6 96.5
79 Illinois 97.6 94.3 96.6 96.2
80 East Carolina 95.1 97.2 95.5 95.9
81 Oregon St. 98.4 93.6 95.8 95.9
82 Kentucky 94.9 97.5 93.6 95.3
83 Ohio 91.5 100.1 92.5 94.7
84 Utah St. 93.9 96.7 93.5 94.7
85 Middle Tennessee 94.0 95.3 94.5 94.6
86 Iowa St. 95.0 94.7 93.8 94.5
87 Northern Illinois 93.7 94.9 94.4 94.3
88 Southern Mississippi 93.8 93.7 94.8 94.1
89 New Mexico 92.2 95.2 93.0 93.5
90 Nevada 91.6 95.1 92.8 93.2
91 SMU 92.6 91.8 91.9 92.1
92 Georgia Southern 91.3 91.3 93.6 92.1
93 UNLV 89.8 94.2 89.9 91.3
94 Troy 88.6 93.6 90.5 90.9
95 Louisiana Tech 89.8 92.0 90.9 90.9
96 Marshall 88.7 93.1 90.5 90.8
97 Arkansas St. 88.7 90.7 90.2 89.9
98 San Jose St. 89.8 89.8 90.0 89.9
99 Akron 86.7 93.1 88.1 89.3
100 Bowling Green 89.7 88.5 89.1 89.1
101 Central Florida 88.2 90.6 88.2 89.0
102 Colorado St. 86.0 88.7 86.5 87.1
103 Ball St. 85.9 87.9 86.8 86.9
104 Kansas 85.0 92.5 82.3 86.6
105 Tulane 85.5 88.6 85.7 86.6
106 Old Dominion 85.4 88.3 85.7 86.5
107 Kent St. 84.1 85.8 84.3 84.8
108 Rice 81.8 89.6 81.8 84.4
109 Miami (O) 83.6 84.4 84.7 84.2
110 Wyoming 83.9 83.6 84.1 83.9
111 Georgia St. 81.5 86.6 83.2 83.8
112 Florida Atlantic 81.7 85.1 83.3 83.4
113 UTSA 79.6 87.5 82.1 83.1
114 South Alabama 80.0 87.6 81.4 83.0
115 Florida International 80.2 87.1 80.9 82.7
116 Massachusetts 79.5 87.5 81.0 82.7
117 Eastern Michigan 79.9 85.1 80.8 81.9
118 Fresno St. 80.5 84.6 80.1 81.7
119 Buffalo 77.8 86.6 79.0 81.2
120 UL-Lafayette 75.8 84.4 77.7 79.3
121 Idaho 76.0 81.8 77.3 78.4
122 New Mexico St. 75.4 78.0 76.2 76.5
123 Hawaii 77.1 75.8 76.2 76.4
124 North Texas 74.6 77.0 74.6 75.4
125 UTEP 72.3 76.7 73.8 74.3
126 Charlotte 70.5 77.7 71.6 73.3
127 Texas St. 71.6 72.7 72.8 72.4
128 UL-Monroe 70.1 75.2 70.7 72.0

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Houston
5 Michigan
6 Tennessee
7 Stanford
8 Washington
9 Louisville
10 Arkansas
11 Texas A&M
12 Wisconsin
13 Baylor
14 LSU
15 Florida St.
16 Georgia
17 Michigan St.
18 Utah
19 Florida
20 Oklahoma
21 Nebraska
22 Miami (Fla)
23 San Diego St.
24 Ole Miss
25 South Florida
26 Toledo
27 Western Michigan
28 North Carolina
29 Iowa
30 Oregon
31 Boise St.
32 West Virginia
33 TCU
34 Navy
35 UCLA
36 Central Michigan
37 Notre Dame
38 Arizona St.
39 Oklahoma St.
40 Virginia Tech
41 Memphis
42 California
43 USC
44 Georgia Tech
45 Western Kentucky
46 Auburn
47 Pittsburgh
48 Georgia Southern
49 Texas
50 Minnesota
51 Texas Tech
52 Colorado
53 Penn St.
54 BYU
55 Kansas St.
56 Air Force
57 Indiana
58 Washington St.
59 Mississippi St.
60 Maryland
61 Wake Forest
62 North Carolina St.
63 Cincinnati
64 Army
65 South Carolina
66 Arizona
67 Tulsa
68 Akron
69 Missouri
70 Utah St.
71 Appalachian St.
72 Northwestern
73 East Carolina
74 Troy
75 Southern Miss.
76 Temple
77 Marshall
78 Louisiana Tech
79 Nevada
80 Colorado St.
81 Vanderbilt
82 Middle Tennessee
83 Rutgers
84 Connecticut
85 Ohio
86 Duke
87 Bowling Green
88 Ball St.
89 SMU
90 Kentucky
91 Arkansas St.
92 Boston College
93 Syracuse
94 Illinois
95 Texas St.
96 Purdue
97 Oregon St.
98 San Jose St.
99 Wyoming
100 UL-Lafayette
101 Virginia
102 UTEP
103 Idaho
104 South Alabama
105 Northern Illinois
106 Tulane
107 New Mexico
108 Central Florida
109 Fresno St.
110 Iowa St.
111 UNLV
112 Old Dominion
113 Florida Atlantic
114 Rice
115 New Mexico St.
116 Kansas
117 Georgia St.
118 Massachusetts
119 UTSA
120 Eastern Michigan
121 Kent St.
122 Hawaii
123 UL-Monroe
124 Miami (O)
125 Buffalo
126 Florida Int’l.
127 Charlotte
128 North Texas

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.6 109.0 112.8 111.1
Cincinnati 101.9 102.5 102.6 102.4
Temple 99.9 99.6 100.3 100.0
Connecticut 97.5 95.3 97.7 96.9
East Carolina 95.1 97.2 95.5 95.9
Central Florida 88.2 90.6 88.2 89.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 115.5 113.6 117.7 115.6
Memphis 103.7 99.6 102.0 101.8
Tulsa 99.7 102.0 100.4 100.7
Navy 98.8 98.7 98.3 98.6
SMU 92.6 91.8 91.9 92.1
Tulane 85.5 88.6 85.7 86.6
         
AAC Averages 99.2 99.1 99.4 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.9 121.7 128.1 125.9
Clemson 122.2 113.9 120.7 118.9
Florida St. 117.9 110.6 116.8 115.1
North Carolina St. 106.9 104.7 106.3 106.0
Wake Forest 101.8 99.5 100.9 100.8
Boston College 100.5 99.5 100.0 100.0
Syracuse 101.4 97.6 99.2 99.4
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 120.1 112.8 120.0 117.6
North Carolina 117.2 110.5 116.9 114.9
Virginia Tech 114.5 114.1 114.8 114.5
Pittsburgh 115.9 111.4 115.0 114.1
Georgia Tech 111.0 107.2 110.4 109.5
Virginia 100.4 97.4 99.7 99.2
Duke 99.0 99.8 97.3 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.2 107.2 110.4 109.6
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.0 117.3 119.9 119.1
Oklahoma St. 115.3 116.3 115.1 115.6
Texas 112.1 113.6 111.2 112.3
TCU 111.9 113.5 111.5 112.3
Baylor 110.4 110.5 111.5 110.8
Kansas St. 107.2 110.2 107.1 108.2
West Virginia 107.2 106.6 106.8 106.9
Texas Tech 105.5 103.3 103.4 104.1
Iowa St. 95.0 94.7 93.8 94.5
Kansas 85.0 92.5 82.3 86.6
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.0
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 122.9 122.2 124.4 123.2
Michigan 121.9 119.8 122.5 121.4
Michigan St. 113.5 112.5 111.7 112.6
Penn St. 107.2 109.0 105.9 107.4
Indiana 101.8 106.3 101.4 103.2
Maryland 101.4 105.0 99.2 101.9
Rutgers 98.0 95.5 96.4 96.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 115.1 112.0 114.8 114.0
Nebraska 111.8 108.4 111.9 110.7
Wisconsin 111.1 109.0 111.7 110.6
Minnesota 105.1 103.1 104.8 104.3
Northwestern 106.4 101.2 104.8 104.1
Purdue 97.6 95.2 96.6 96.5
Illinois 97.6 94.3 96.6 96.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.3
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 100.8 96.4 102.0 99.7
Middle Tennessee 94.0 95.3 94.5 94.6
Marshall 88.7 93.1 90.5 90.8
Old Dominion 85.4 88.3 85.7 86.5
Florida Atlantic 81.7 85.1 83.3 83.4
Florida International 80.2 87.1 80.9 82.7
Charlotte 70.5 77.7 71.6 73.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 93.8 93.7 94.8 94.1
Louisiana Tech 89.8 92.0 90.9 90.9
Rice 81.8 89.6 81.8 84.4
UTSA 79.6 87.5 82.1 83.1
North Texas 74.6 77.0 74.6 75.4
UTEP 72.3 76.7 73.8 74.3
         
CUSA Averages 84.1 87.7 85.1 85.6
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 114.9 111.2 113.6 113.2
BYU 110.3 103.6 109.7 107.9
Army 93.8 102.0 97.1 97.6
Massachusetts 79.5 87.5 81.0 82.7
         
Independents Averages 99.6 101.1 100.4 100.4
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.5 100.1 92.5 94.7
Akron 86.7 93.1 88.1 89.3
Bowling Green 89.7 88.5 89.1 89.1
Kent St. 84.1 85.8 84.3 84.8
Miami (O) 83.6 84.4 84.7 84.2
Buffalo 77.8 86.6 79.0 81.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 106.8 104.8 108.6 106.7
Central Michigan 103.0 105.7 104.2 104.3
Toledo 104.2 102.8 105.2 104.1
Northern Illinois 93.7 94.9 94.4 94.3
Ball St. 85.9 87.9 86.8 86.9
Eastern Michigan 79.9 85.1 80.8 81.9
         
MAC Averages 90.6 93.3 91.5 91.8
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 108.0 109.4 110.3 109.2
Air Force 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
Utah St. 93.9 96.7 93.5 94.7
New Mexico 92.2 95.2 93.0 93.5
Colorado St. 86.0 88.7 86.5 87.1
Wyoming 83.9 83.6 84.1 83.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 105.8 102.9 108.2 105.7
Nevada 91.6 95.1 92.8 93.2
UNLV 89.8 94.2 89.9 91.3
San Jose St. 89.8 89.8 90.0 89.9
Fresno St. 80.5 84.6 80.1 81.7
Hawaii 77.1 75.8 76.2 76.4
         
MWC Averages 91.6 93.2 92.2 92.3
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.4 114.2 120.3 118.6
Washington 121.0 113.2 121.1 118.4
Oregon 112.3 111.0 111.5 111.6
Washington St. 107.6 104.8 107.5 106.7
California 105.0 96.6 102.7 101.4
Oregon St. 98.4 93.6 95.8 95.9
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 114.3 109.9 111.6 111.9
UCLA 111.4 110.4 111.0 110.9
Colorado 110.1 105.6 110.6 108.8
Utah 110.8 105.1 108.7 108.2
Arizona St. 107.5 108.1 106.3 107.3
Arizona 104.3 102.0 103.1 103.1
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.3 106.2 109.2 108.6
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 121.8 117.1 121.8 120.2
Florida 112.6 116.3 110.8 113.2
Georgia 111.0 111.1 110.9 111.0
Missouri 104.1 103.3 103.9 103.8
Vanderbilt 102.5 98.3 101.0 100.6
South Carolina 100.9 99.9 100.4 100.4
Kentucky 94.9 97.5 93.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.1 123.6 130.9 128.5
LSU 124.0 118.3 123.0 121.8
Texas A&M 114.8 113.8 114.8 114.5
Auburn 113.9 112.4 113.8 113.4
Mississippi St. 114.4 111.7 113.7 113.3
Arkansas 113.7 108.8 111.0 111.2
Ole Miss 113.6 107.1 112.4 111.0
         
SEC Averages 112.4 110.0 111.6 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 97.7 96.4 99.8 98.0
Georgia Southern 91.3 91.3 93.6 92.1
Troy 88.6 93.6 90.5 90.9
Arkansas St. 88.7 90.7 90.2 89.9
Georgia St. 81.5 86.6 83.2 83.8
South Alabama 80.0 87.6 81.4 83.0
UL-Lafayette 75.8 84.4 77.7 79.3
Idaho 76.0 81.8 77.3 78.4
New Mexico St. 75.4 78.0 76.2 76.5
Texas St. 71.6 72.7 72.8 72.4
UL-Monroe 70.1 75.2 70.7 72.0
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.5 85.3 83.0 83.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.4 110.0 111.6 111.3
2 ACC 111.2 107.2 110.4 109.6
3 Pac-12 110.3 106.2 109.2 108.6
4 Big Ten 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.3
5 Big 12 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.0
6 Independents 99.6 101.1 100.4 100.4
7 AAC 99.2 99.1 99.4 99.2
8 MWC 91.6 93.2 92.2 92.3
9 MAC 90.6 93.3 91.5 91.8
10 CUSA 84.1 87.7 85.1 85.6
11 Sun Belt 81.5 85.3 83.0 83.3

This Week’s Spreads

Thursday, September 22  PiRate Mean  Bias 
Georgia Tech Clemson -8.2 -3.7 -7.3
         
Friday, September 23  PiRate  Mean  Bias 
Eastern Michigan Wyoming -1.0 4.5 -0.3
Utah USC -0.5 -1.8 0.1
         
         
Saturday, September 24  PiRate  Mean  Bias 
Akron Appalachian St. -8.0 -0.3 -8.7
Buffalo Army -14.0 -13.4 -16.1
Cincinnati Miami (O) 20.8 20.6 20.4
Connecticut Syracuse -1.9 -0.3 0.5
Indiana Wake Forest 3.0 9.8 3.5
Kentucky South Carolina -3.0 0.6 -3.8
Michigan Penn St. 17.7 13.8 19.6
Michigan St. Wisconsin 5.4 6.5 3.0
North Carolina Pittsburgh 4.3 2.1 4.9
Purdue Nevada 9.0 3.1 6.8
South Florida Florida St. -3.8 0.9 -1.5
Temple Charlotte 31.9 24.4 31.2
Tennessee Florida 12.2 3.8 14.0
Virginia Central Michigan 0.4 -5.3 -1.5
Virginia Tech East Carolina 22.4 19.9 22.3
West Virginia (N) BYU -0.1 6.0 0.1
Western Michigan Georgia Southern 18.5 16.5 18.0
Iowa St. San Jose St. 8.2 7.9 6.8
Old Dominion UTSA 8.3 3.3 6.1
Rutgers Iowa -14.1 -13.5 -15.4
Alabama Kent St. 50.0 40.8 49.6
Auburn LSU -7.1 -2.9 -6.2
Baylor Oklahoma St. -1.9 -2.8 -0.6
Minnesota Colorado St. 22.1 17.4 21.3
Ole Miss Georgia 5.6 -1.0 4.5
Texas A&M (N) Arkansas 1.1 5.0 3.8
Tulane UL-Lafayette 11.7 6.2 10.0
Memphis Bowling Green 17.0 14.1 15.9
Troy New Mexico St. 16.2 18.6 17.3
Utah St. Air Force -4.0 -1.6 -4.9
Arizona Washington -13.7 -8.2 -15.0
Arizona St. California 5.5 14.5 6.6
Oregon Colorado 5.2 8.4 3.9
Oregon St. Boise St. -6.6 -12.8 -11.5
UCLA Stanford -7.0 -0.8 -6.3
Massachusetts Mississippi St. -32.4 -21.7 -30.2
Notre Dame Duke 18.9 14.4 19.3
Western Kentucky Vanderbilt 1.3 1.1 4.0
Fresno St. Tulsa -16.2 -14.4 -17.3
Florida Atlantic Ball St. -1.2 0.2 -0.5
Rice North Texas 9.7 15.1 9.7
Texas St. Houston -41.9 -38.9 -42.9
Florida Int’l. Central Florida -6.0 -1.5 -5.3
Middle Tennessee Louisiana Tech 6.7 5.8 6.1
Northwestern Nebraska -2.4 -4.2 -4.1
Marshall Louisville -36.4 -26.1 -35.1
SMU TCU -17.3 -19.7 -17.6
UTEP Southern Miss. -18.5 -14.0 -18.0
UNLV Idaho 16.8 15.4 15.6
FBS vs. FCS Week 4  
Home Visitor PiRate
Boston College Wagner 36
Ohio Gardner-Webb 30
Missouri Delaware St. 45
South Alabama Nicholls St. 19
Arkansas St. Central Arkansas 21
Northern Illinois Western Illinois 13
Kansas St. Missouri St. 42

 

 

 

March 19, 2016

NCAA 3rd Round Picks–Sunday, March 20, 2016

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:04 pm
Higher Seed Lower Seed Red White Blue
Villanova Iowa 5 4 8
Notre Dame Stephen F. Austin -1 4 -3
Oklahoma VCU 6 4 -1
Syracuse Middle Tennessee 6 10 5
Maryland Hawaii 3 6 7
Texas A&M Northern Iowa 7 9 10
Xavier Wisconsin 6 4 8
Oregon St. Joseph’s 5 4 8

 

Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Higher Seed Lower Seed
12:10 PM CBS Villanova Iowa
2:40 PM CBS Notre Dame Stephen F. Austin
5:10 PM CBS Oklahoma VCU
6:10 PM TNT Syracuse Middle Tennessee
6:45 PM TBS Maryland Hawaii
7:45 PM TruTV Texas A&M Northern Iowa
8:40 PM TNT Xavier Wisconsin
9:40 PM TBS Oregon St. Joseph’s

 

 

September 1, 2015

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:46 pm

Check back Wednesday afternoon, September 2, 2015, for additional coverage of week one of the college football season.

For now, enjoy the initial PiRate Rating spreads for games between FBS school.  Tomorrow’s update will include FBS vs. FCS games.

This Week’s Games
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 3
North Carolina (N) South Carolina 3.6 6.4 4.0
Central Florida Florida Int’l 8.4 11.2 8.4
Central Michigan Oklahoma St. -30.3 -23.5 -29.0
Vanderbilt Western Kentucky 0.4 -3.8 -2.0
Utah Michigan 9.9 6.4 10.4
Minnesota T C U -17.5 -5.4 -19.1
Idaho Ohio U 16.5 10.6 15.9
Tulane Duke -4.0 -1.2 -3.9
Arizona U T S A 49.3 31.3 48.6
Hawaii Colorado -16.8 -7.0 -15.9
         
Friday, September 4        
Georgia St. Charlotte 8.2 3.4 7.6
Western Michigan Michigan St. 23.5 15.5 22.9
S M U Baylor -40.2 -29.9 -41.8
Illinois Kent St. 21.3 14.4 18.5
Boise St. Washington 16.3 12.3 16.1
         
Saturday, September 5        
Georgia Louisiana-Monroe 45.0 39.6 44.4
Northwestern Stanford 12.7 7.6 14.6
Eastern Michigan Old Dominion 6.9 2.8 6.2
Nebraska B Y U 8.2 5.8 6.2
Temple Penn St. 6.4 4.9 6.0
Tulsa Florida Atlantic 7.5 10.5 8.0
Arkansas U T E P 42.3 30.9 42.0
Auburn (N) Louisville 11.8 7.5 9.9
U C L A Virginia 27.2 22.4 26.4
Tennessee (N) Bowling Green 32.2 20.4 29.8
N. Carolina St. Troy 40.5 44.0 39.0
Oklahoma Akron 44.6 31.5 41.5
Texas A&M (N) Arizona St. -0.8 2.6 -2.3
Kentucky Louisiana-Lafayette 25.3 16.5 24.4
Notre Dame Texas 13.1 10.1 12.6
West Virginia Georgia Southern 33.9 25.3 32.9
Florida N. Mexico St. 39.6 33.3 38.6
Northern Illinois U N L V 18.2 18.6 18.8
Alabama (N) Wisconsin 11.4 9.1 10.8
Florida St. Texas St. 33.4 28.1 31.6
Southern Miss. Mississippi St. -25.4 -20.7 -27.1
U S C Arkansas St. 36.8 31.0 40.9
         
Sunday, September 6        
Marshall Purdue -1.0 -1.5 1.7
         
Monday, September 7        
Virginia Tech Ohio St. -15.0 -6.5 -16.1

September 12, 2013

PiRate Picks for College and NFL Football–September 12-16, 2013

A Week to Forget

Historically, the second week of the college football season and the first week of the NFL season has been a good one for us, but we stunk up the joint with our picks last week.  There is a reason the books call them “teasers.”  They tease you into thinking these selections are so easy to win, but they are quite the opposite.  Most people lose their shirts playing these sucker selections, but we have done quite well with them in the past due to the crossing of certain key numbers.  Oh, well: we wagered $0, so we would have either won big and collected $0, or lost big and lost $0.  That is how we suggest you wager as well—just for the fun of it.

 

This week, we have the following 17 fun selections for you to peruse.

 

College Sides

1. Texas Tech +3 ½ vs. T C U

2. Troy +8 vs. Arkansas St.

3. Louisville -13 ½ vs. Kentucky

4. Ohio U +8 ½ vs. Marshall

5. Virginia Tech -7 ½ vs. East Carolina

6. Connecticut +7 vs. Maryland

7. Wake Forest -3 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

8. Western Kentucky – 9 ½ vs. South Alabama

9. Illinois +10 vs. Washington

 

N F L Sides

10. Baltimore -6 ½ vs. Cleveland

11. Indianapolis -2 ½ vs. Miami

12. Oakland -5 ½ vs. Jacksonville

 

College Totals

13. Connecticut & Maryland UNDER 48

 

14. 10-point Teaser

Western Kentucky + ½ vs. South Alabama

UCLA +14 ½ vs. Nebraska

Texas +7 ½ vs. Ole Miss

 

15. 10-point Teaser

Illinois +20 vs. Washington

Ohio St. -5 ½ vs. California

Northwestern -20 vs. Western Michigan

 

16. 13-point Teaser

Bowling Green + 15 ½ vs. Indiana

Virginia Tech +5 ½ vs. East Carolina

Connecticut +19 ½ vs. Maryland

Florida St. -20 ½ vs. Nevada

 

17. 13-point Teaser

Iowa St. +15 ½ vs. Iowa

Alabama +5 vs. Texas A&M

Auburn +7 ½ vs. Mississippi St.

South Carolina – ½ vs. Vanderbilt

 

September 10, 2013

PiRate Ratings For College Football–September 12-14, 2013

College Football Ratings And Spreads For September 12-14, 2013

 

FBS Power Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

132.4

2

Oregon

131.8

3

Stanford

126.5

4

Oklahoma St.

122.3

5

Texas A&M

122.1

6

Georgia

121.5

7

Ole Miss

121.2

8

L S U

121.1

9

Ohio St.

120.6

10

Texas

120.4

11

Arizona

120.3

12

South Carolina

119.5

13

Michigan

119.1

14

Washington

118.7

15

Baylor

117.5

16

Florida

117.5

17

Notre Dame

117.1

18

Arizona St.

116.9

19

Louisville

116.7

20

Clemson

116.7

21

T C U

116.3

22

Oregon St.

115.8

23

Northwestern

115.7

24

U C L A

115.6

25

Wisconsin

115.3

26

Florida St.

115.1

27

Missouri

115.1

28

Miami

114.6

29

Oklahoma

114.2

30

Nebraska

113.7

31

Georgia Tech

113.5

32

Michigan St.

113.5

33

Virginia Tech

111.8

34

U S C

111.8

35

Penn St.

111.5

36

B Y U

110.8

37

Kansas St.

110.5

38

Vanderbilt

109.6

39

Mississippi St.

108.9

40

Cincinnati

108.8

41

Tennessee

108.0

42

North Carolina

106.9

43

Auburn

106.9