PiRate Ratings College Football For The Playoffs and Bowls

Spreads for Bowls and Playoff Semifinals

Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Dec. 21	Myrtle Beach
Appalachian St.	North Texas	28.0	27.3	28.7
Dec. 22	Idaho Potato
Tulane	Nevada	9.1	8.2	8.2
Dec 22	Boca Raton
Central Florida	BYU	-3.3	-3.2	-3.2
Dec 23	New Orleans
Louisiana Tech	Georgia Southern	-8.6	-8.8	-8.8
Dec 23	Montgomery
Memphis	Florida Atlantic	18.5	16.4	16.4
Dec 24	New Mexico
Houston	Hawaii	10.6	8.9	10.2
Dec 25	Camellia
Marshall	Buffalo	-6.3	-7.0	-7.5
Dec 26	Gasparilla
South Carolina	UAB	3.6	1.4	3.2
Dec 26	Cure
Coastal Carolina	Liberty	7.0	4.6	6.9
Dec 26	First Responder
UTSA	Louisiana	-20.5	-19.7	-19.9
Dec 26	LendingTree
Western Ky.	Georgia St.	-0.6	-0.4	-1.5
Dec 29	Cheez-It
Miami (Fla.)	Oklahoma St.	-2.7	0.5	-1.3
Dec 29	Alamo
Texas	Colorado	17.0	15.0	18.1
Dec 30	Duke’s Mayo
Wake Forest	Wisconsin	-13.7	-11.2	-13.9
Dec 30	Music City
Iowa	Missouri	15.6	15.7	16.7
Dec 30	Cotton
Oklahoma	Florida	-1.2	-1.2	-1.6
Dec 31	Armed Forces
Tulsa	Mississippi St.	-1.0	-1.6	-2.7
Dec 31	Liberty
Army (replaces Tenn.)	West Va.	-10.0	-8.2	-10.0
Dec 31	Arizona
Ball St.	San Jose St.	-1.6	-3.3	-1.9
Dec 31	Texas
TCU	Arkansas	8.3	6.6	8.6
Jan 1	Peach
Georgia	Cincinnati	7.8	7.7	8.8
Jan 1	Citrus
Auburn	Northwestern	3.3	2.4	0.7
Jan 1	Rose *
Alabama	Notre Dame	17.0	17.9	19.0
Jan 1	Sugar
Clemson	Ohio St.	0.0	1.7	0.2
Jan 2	Gator
N.C. State	Kentucky	-7.7	-7.0	-8.3
Jan 2	Outback
Ole Miss	Indiana	-8.0	-9.4	-10.3
Jan 2	Fiesta
Oregon	Iowa St.	-3.4	-4.2	-4.1
Jan 2	Orange
Texas A&M	North Carolina	2.1	2.1	2.5

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Alabama	139.5	140.2	141.5	140.4	SEC-W
2	Clemson	131.1	131.9	133.3	132.1	ACC
3	Ohio St.	131.1	130.2	133.2	131.5	BTen-E
4	Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	SEC-E
5	Florida	123.1	122.8	124.0	123.3	SEC-E
6	Notre Dame	122.5	122.3	122.5	122.4	ACC
7	Texas A&M	121.9	122.0	122.8	122.2	SEC-W
8	Oklahoma	121.9	121.5	122.3	121.9	B12
9	Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	BTen-W
10	Iowa St.	120.2	119.4	120.4	120.0	B12
11	N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	ACC
12	Wisconsin	118.9	117.2	120.0	118.7	BTen-W
13	Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	BTen-E
14	Cincinnati	118.1	117.4	118.0	117.8	AAC
15	Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	B12
16	U S C	117.3	114.7	116.3	116.1	P12-S
17	Oregon	116.8	115.2	116.3	116.1	P12-N
18	Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	SEC-W
19	BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	Ind.
20	L S U	114.2	113.4	115.1	114.2	SEC-W
21	Penn St.	114.3	113.1	115.1	114.2	BTen-E
22	Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	B12
23	Northwestern	112.2	112.3	114.9	113.2	BTen-W
24	Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	ACC
25	UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	AAC
26	T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	B12
27	Arizona St.	110.2	109.7	110.0	109.9	P12-S
28	Utah	109.3	109.4	110.2	109.6	P12-S
29	Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	SEC-E
30	Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	P12-N
31	Ole Miss	109.1	108.1	109.3	108.8	SEC-W
32	Minnesota	107.5	108.0	109.2	108.2	BTen-W
33	Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	SUN-E
34	U C L A	108.0	106.9	107.0	107.3	P12-S
35	Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	ACC
36	Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	ACC
37	Tennessee	106.0	105.3	105.9	105.7	SEC-E
38	Miss. St.	105.6	105.0	106.2	105.6	SEC-W
39	Nebraska	105.2	104.7	106.5	105.5	BTen-W
40	Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	BTen-E
41	Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	SUN-W
42	Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	ACC
43	California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	P12-N
44	Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	ACC
45	Buffalo	104.3	105.2	104.9	104.8	MAC-E
46	W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	B12
47	Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	ACC
48	Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	AAC
49	Missouri	104.1	103.7	104.7	104.2	SEC-E
50	Boise St.	104.2	104.2	103.8	104.1	MWC-M
51	Stanford	104.6	103.1	104.4	104.0	P12-N
52	Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	ACC
53	Tulsa	104.6	103.4	103.5	103.8	AAC
54	Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	BTen-W
55	Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	AAC
56	Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	SUN-E
57	Oregon St.	103.0	102.6	102.0	102.5	P12-N
58	Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	SEC-W
59	Washington St.	102.6	101.2	102.9	102.2	P12-N
60	Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	B12
61	NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	ACC
62	Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	AAC
63	Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	Ind.
64	Air Force	100.9	101.6	100.7	101.1	MWC-M
65	Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	P12-S
66	San Jose St.	99.9	101.6	100.5	100.7	MWC-W
67	Illinois	100.4	99.7	101.1	100.4	BTen-W
68	Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	B12
69	Rutgers	100.4	99.4	99.8	99.9	BTen-E
70	SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	AAC
71	S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	SEC-E
72	Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	BTen-E
73	San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	MWC-W
74	Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	B12
75	Ball St.	98.2	98.3	98.6	98.4	MAC-W
76	Marshall	98.0	98.2	97.4	97.8	CUSA-E
77	Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	ACC
78	U A B	96.9	97.4	96.5	96.9	CUSA-W
79	Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	MWC-M
80	Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	MWC-W
81	Army	94.7	96.1	94.9	95.3	Ind.
82	Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	ACC
83	E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	AAC
84	Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	BTen-E
85	Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	MAC-E
86	Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	P12-S
87	Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	SUN-E
88	Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	MWC-W
89	Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	MWC-W
90	Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	MAC-W
91	Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	MAC-W
92	Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	SUN-E
93	Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	MAC-W
94	Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	SUN-E
95	Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	MAC-E
96	Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	AAC
97	W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	CUSA-E
98	Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	MAC-E
99	Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	ACC
100	Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	ACC
101	Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	MWC-M
102	Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	SEC-E
103	Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	SUN-W
104	Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	AAC
105	Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	CUSA-W
106	USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	AAC
107	Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	CUSA-E
108	New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	MWC-M
109	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	CUSA-E
110	U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	CUSA-W
111	Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	MAC-W
112	Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	MWC-M
113	La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	CUSA-W
114	Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	CUSA-E
115	Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	CUSA-E
116	Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	CUSA-W
117	S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	SUN-W
118	N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	MAC-W
119	Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	SUN-W
120	U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	MWC-W
121	Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	B12
122	North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	CUSA-W
123	U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	CUSA-W
124	Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	MAC-E
125	UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	SUN-W
126	Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	MAC-E
127	Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
Cincinnati	118.1	117.4	118.0	117.8	6-0	9-0
UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	5-3	6-3
Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	3-5	6-5
Tulsa	104.6	103.4	103.5	103.8	6-0	6-2
Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	5-3	7-3
Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	3-3	3-4
SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	4-3	7-3
E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	3-4	3-6
Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	3-4	3-7
Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	1-6	1-6
USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	0-7	1-8
AAC Avg.	100.7	100.0	99.7	100.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	131.1	131.9	133.3	132.1	8-1	10-1
Notre Dame	122.5	122.3	122.5	122.4	9-0	10-1
N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	7-3	8-3
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	7-2	8-2
Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	3-7	4-7
Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	5-5	6-5
Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	3-4	4-4
Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	4-5	5-5
Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	5-5	5-6
Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	5-5	6-5
NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	7-3	8-3
Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	2-6	3-6
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	3-6	3-7
Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	1-9	1-10
Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	1-9	2-9
ACC Avg.	106.0	106.3	106.2	106.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.9	121.5	122.3	121.9	6-2	8-2
Iowa St.	120.2	119.4	120.4	120.0	8-1	8-3
Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	5-3	6-3
Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	6-3	7-3
T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	5-4	6-4
W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	4-4	5-4
Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	2-7	2-7
Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	4-5	4-6
Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	3-6	4-6
Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	0-8	0-9
Big 12 Avg.	106.9	106.1	106.8	106.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	131.1	130.2	133.2	131.5	5-0	6-0
Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	6-1	6-1
Penn St.	114.3	113.1	115.1	114.2	4-5	4-5
Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	2-4	2-4
Rutgers	100.4	99.4	99.8	99.9	3-6	3-6
Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	2-5	2-5
Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	2-3	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	6-2	6-2
Wisconsin	118.9	117.2	120.0	118.7	3-3	3-3
Northwestern	112.2	112.3	114.9	113.2	6-1	6-2
Minnesota	107.5	108.0	109.2	108.2	3-4	3-4
Nebraska	105.2	104.7	106.5	105.5	3-5	3-5
Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	2-4	2-4
Illinois	100.4	99.7	101.1	100.4	2-6	2-6
Big Ten Avg.	109.3	108.8	110.4	109.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	98.0	98.2	97.4	97.8	4-1	7-2
W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	4-3	5-6
Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	4-2	5-3
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	0-3	0-5
Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	2-2	2-4
Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	2-4	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
U A B	96.9	97.4	96.5	96.9	3-1	6-3
Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	2-3	2-3
U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	5-2	7-4
La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	4-2	5-4
Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	2-4	3-7
North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	3-4	4-5
U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	0-4	3-5
CUSA Avg.	85.1	85.4	84.8	85.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	x	10-1
Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	x	9-1
Army	94.7	96.1	94.9	95.3	x	9-2
Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	x	0-4
Ind. Avg.	92.8	95.3	92.6	93.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Buffalo	104.3	105.2	104.9	104.8	5-0	5-1
Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	2-1	2-1
Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	2-1	2-1
Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	3-1	3-1
Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	1-5	1-5
Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	0-5	0-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Ball St.	98.2	98.3	98.6	98.4	5-1	6-1
Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	4-2	4-2
Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	4-2	4-2
Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	3-3	3-3
Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	2-4	2-4
N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	0-6	0-6
MAC Avg.	87.8	88.5	87.6	88.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Boise St.	104.2	104.2	103.8	104.1	5-0	5-2
Air Force	100.9	101.6	100.7	101.1	2-2	3-3
Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	2-4	2-4
Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	1-3	1-3
New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	2-5	2-5
Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	1-5	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
San Jose St.	99.9	101.6	100.5	100.7	6-0	7-0
San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	4-2	4-4
Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	6-2	6-2
Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	3-3	3-3
Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	4-4	4-4
U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	0-6	0-6
MWC Avg.	93.3	94.0	93.1	93.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Oregon	116.8	115.2	116.3	116.1	3-2	4-2
Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	3-1	3-1
California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	1-3	1-3
Stanford	104.6	103.1	104.4	104.0	4-2	4-2
Oregon St.	103.0	102.6	102.0	102.5	2-5	2-5
Washington St.	102.6	101.2	102.9	102.2	1-3	1-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
U S C	117.3	114.7	116.3	116.1	5-0	5-1
Arizona St.	110.2	109.7	110.0	109.9	2-2	2-2
Utah	109.3	109.4	110.2	109.6	3-2	3-2
U C L A	108.0	106.9	107.0	107.3	3-4	3-4
Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	3-1	4-1
Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	0-5	0-5
P12 Avg.	106.8	105.8	106.4	106.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	7-2	7-2
Florida	123.1	122.8	124.0	123.3	8-2	8-3
Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	4-6	4-6
Tennessee	106.0	105.3	105.9	105.7	3-7	3-7
Missouri	104.1	103.7	104.7	104.2	5-5	5-5
S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	2-8	2-8
Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	0-9	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Alabama	139.5	140.2	141.5	140.4	10-0	11-0
Texas A&M	121.9	122.0	122.8	122.2	8-1	8-1
Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	6-4	6-4
L S U	114.2	113.4	115.1	114.2	5-5	5-5
Ole Miss	109.1	108.1	109.3	108.8	4-5	4-5
Miss. St.	105.6	105.0	106.2	105.6	3-7	3-7
Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	3-7	3-7
SEC Avg.	111.7	111.2	112.1	111.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	8-0	11-0
Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	6-2	8-3
Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	4-4	7-5
Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	4-4	5-4
Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	3-6	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	7-1	9-1
Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	2-6	4-7
S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	3-5	4-7
Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	2-6	2-10
UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	0-7	0-10
Sun Avg.	91.1	91.4	90.9	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	League	Avg
1	SEC	111.7
2	BTen	109.5
3	B12	106.6
4	P12	106.4
5	ACC	106.2
6	AAC	100.1
7	Ind.	93.6
8	MWC	93.5
9	Sun	91.2
10	MAC	88.0
11	CUSA	85.1

Add On Game College Football — Sunday, November 15, 2020

Pirate Rating Spread For UCLA-California game added Friday, November 13 to be played Sunday, November 15.

Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
UCLA	California	-4.0	-5.6	-6.3

PiRate College Football Ratings: Final Regular Season

PiRate Ratings Spreads For 2019-2020 Bowls & Playoffs

Including TV & Start Times 

All Times Given Are Eastern Standard Time

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Dec. 20	Bahamas	ESPN	2:00 PM
Buffalo	Charlotte	6.9	7.1	7.6
Dec. 20	Frisco	ESPN2	7:30 PM
Utah St.	Kent St.	7.8	7.4	7.3
Dec. 21	New Mexico	ESPN	2:00 PM
San Diego St.	Central Michigan	5.3	6.1	4.1
Dec. 21	Cure	CBSSN	2:30 PM
Georgia Southern	Liberty	9.5	8.3	8.9
Dec. 21	Boca Raton	ABC	3:30 PM
SMU	Florida Atlantic	3.5	3.2	2.8
Dec.21	Camellia	ESPN	5:30 PM
Arkansas St.	Florida Int’l.	0.9	1.4	0.4
Dec. 21	Las Vegas	ABC	7:30 PM
Washington	Boise St.	5.0	4.3	5.6
Dec. 21	New Orleans	ESPN	9:00 PM
Appalachian St.	UAB	23.1	20.9	21.7
Dec. 23	Gasparilla	ESPN	2:30 PM
Central Florida	Marshall	19.6	19.4	19.6
Dec. 24	Hawaii	ESPN	8:00 PM
BYU	Hawaii	1.3	0.2	1.6
Dec. 26	Independence	ESPN	4:00 PM
Miami (Fla.)	Louisiana Tech	10.6	9.9	11.4
Dec. 26	Quick Lane	ESPN	8:00 PM
Pittsburgh	Eastern Michigan	13.1	12.3	12.6
Dec. 27	Military	ESPN	12:00 PM
North Carolina	Temple	8.3	8.3	7.9
Dec. 27	Pinstripe	ESPN	3:20 PM
Michigan St.	Wake Forest	4.6	4.4	3.4
Dec. 27	Texas	ESPN	6:45 PM
Texas A&M	Oklahoma St.	6.3	3.2	5.1
Dec. 27	Holiday	FS1	8:00 PM
Iowa	USC	7.4	5.3	6.2
Dec. 27	Cheez-It	ESPN	10:15 PM
Washington St.	Air Force	5.4	2.8	4.4
Dec. 28	Camping World	ABC	12:00 PM
Notre Dame	Iowa St.	7.9	6.7	8.3
Dec. 28	Cotton	ESPN	12:00 PM
Penn St.	Memphis	11.3	10.1	10.3
Dec. 28	Peach	ESPN	4:00 PM
LSU	Oklahoma	14.5	13.0	15.1
Dec. 28	Fiesta	ESPN	8:00 PM
Ohio St.	Clemson	1.6	2.3	1.0
Dec. 30	First Responder	ESPN	12:30 PM
Western Michigan	Western Kentucky	2.3	0.7	0.6
Dec. 30	Music City	ESPN	4:00 PM
Mississippi St.	Louisville	9.6	6.8	13.4
Dec. 30	Redbox	Fox	4:00 PM
California	Illinois	4.0	3.2	4.9
Dec. 30	Orange	ESPN	8:00 PM
Florida	Virginia	21.1	18.8	20.7
Dec. 31	Belk	ESPN	12:00 PM
Kentucky	Virginia Tech	1.9	0.8	0.4
Dec. 31	Sun	CBS	2:00 PM
Arizona St.	Florida St.	3.1	2.7	3.2
Dec. 31	Liberty	ESPN	3:45 PM
Kansas St.	Navy	10.8	8.4	9.3
Dec. 31	Arizona	CBSSN	4:30 PM
Wyoming	Georgia St.	9.3	10.2	10.5
Dec. 31	Alamo	ESPN	7:30 PM
Utah	Texas	10.2	9.0	10.9
Jan. 1	Citrus	ABC	1:00 PM
Alabama	Michigan	3.2	1.4	3.2
Jan. 1	Outback	ESPN	1:00 PM
Auburn	Minnesota	5.7	4.3	6.2
Jan. 1	Rose	ESPN	5:00 PM
Wisconsin	Oregon	0.7	0.7	0.3
Jan. 1	Sugar	ESPN	8:45 PM
Georgia	Baylor	8.8	7.0	9.7
Jan. 2	Birmingham	ESPN	3:00 PM
Cincinnati	Boston College	4.0	4.1	4.1
Jan. 2	Gator	ESPN	7:00 PM
Tennessee	Indiana	0.8	1.5	0.6
Jan. 3	Potato	ESPN	3:30 PM
Ohio U	Nevada	8.6	6.3	9.8
Jan. 4	Armed Forces	ESPN	11:30 AM
Tulane	Southern Miss.	5.9	9.6	6.1
Jan. 6	Lending Tree	ESPN	7:30 PM
Louisiana	Miami (O)	12.6	13.8	12.0
Jan. 13	Championship	ESPN	8:00 PM
Fiesta Bowl	Peach Bowl

 

 

 

 

2019 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

There was a time when the Pac-12 Conference, or one of its predecessor leagues like the Pac-10, Pac-8, Athletic Association of Western Universities, or Pacific Coast Conference was the premier football conference in America.  Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, California, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State have all been elite programs at some point in history.

In recent years, the league has failed to produce a dominant team like the 1954 UCLA Bruins, the 1972 USC Trojans or the 1991 Washington Huskies.  Oregon and Washington have fielded really good teams in this decade, but no Pac-12 team has finished number one since USC won in 2004 with Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Matt Leinart starred at the LA Coliseum.

While the Pac-12 champion has been a touchdown to 10 points weaker than the SEC Champion in the last decade, the bottom teams in the league have been better than other conferences’ bottom teams.  Since moving from eight to nine conference games in 2006, in 10 of the 12 years, at least one team and in many cases two teams have come up one win short of bowl eligibility.  Only Oregon in 2010 has been able to go 9-0 in the league and win the Pac-12 Championship Game as well.

Will this be the year that one team emerges from the pack to earn the league’s first playoff spot since Washington in 2016?  The odds say it won’t happen this year.  The league is too balanced, and there are no dominant teams.  It also doesn’t help that the two leading contenders for the conference championship must face off in an interdivisional game, and chances are high the two teams could split those games.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Pac-12 Media Poll
North Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Oregon	17	190
2	Washington	17	189
3	Stanford	0	129
4	Washington St.	1	108
5	California	0	81
6	Oregon St.	0	38
South Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Utah	33	206
2	USC	2	167
3T	Arizona St.	0	118
3T	UCLA	0	118
5	Arizona	0	85
6	Colorado	0	46
	Championship Game Winner		Overall Votes
	Utah		12
	Oregon		11
	Washington		9
	USC		2
	Washington St.		1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Pac-12
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	113.6	113.5	114.9	114.0
Washington	112.5	111.9	113.6	112.7
Washington St.	111.8	110.7	112.0	111.5
Stanford	108.5	107.5	108.6	108.2
California	106.8	107.0	108.1	107.3
Oregon St.	95.1	96.2	93.9	95.1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.4	114.7	116.6	115.9
Arizona St.	107.7	106.6	108.3	107.6
U C L A	107.6	106.9	106.8	107.1
U S C	104.0	105.2	104.4	104.6
Arizona	101.7	102.0	102.2	102.0
Colorado	99.8	99.0	99.9	99.5
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.4	107.1

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
North Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Washington	8-1	11-2
2	Oregon	7-2	9-3
3	Stanford	6-3	7-5
4	Washington St.	5-4	8-4
5	California	3-6	5-7
6	Oregon St.	0-9	1-11
South Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Utah	7-2	11-2*
2	UCLA	5-4	6-6
3	Arizona St.	4-5	6-6
4	USC	4-5	5-7
5	Arizona	3-6	5-7
6	Colorado	1-8	3-9
*	Utah picked to win Pac-12 Championship Game

 

As you can see, if our predictions are correct, three Pac-12 teams will miss bowl eligibility by one game, most likely because rather than playing an easy Group of 5 or FCS opponent, they will be playing a ninth conference game.

 

Bowl Predictions	Team
Playoffs	Not This Year
Rose	Utah
Cotton	Washington
Alamo	Oregon
Holiday	Washington St.
Redbox	Stanford
Sun	Arizona St.
Vegas	UCLA
Cheez-it	(At-large team needed)

 

Coaches That Could Move Up To Major Programs

None, but Stanford’s David Shaw has been rumored for years to be in the mix for a future NFL head coaching position.

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Clay Helton, USC

Helton begins the year with the hottest seat in college football.  He better win the BYU game in Provo, or who knows?  He could be met with his pink slip on the airport tarmac.  The Trojans’ schedule is a nightmare for a coach on the hot seat.  As if playing nine tough conference games isn’t enough, USC’s out-of-conference slate includes Fresno State, BYU, and Notre Dame.  If the Trojans go 2-1 in these games and then go 7-2 in the Pac-12 to win the South Division flag, Helton might keep his job.  Anything less, and Athletics Director Lynn Swann will have to make a move, assuming he still has his job.  Just remember, it only takes Urban Meyer one year to feel healthy enough to coach again.  There are also excellent options in Chris Peterson, Matt Campbell, Dino Babers, and even a current NFL coach.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Oregon

J. T. Daniels, USC

K.J. Costello, Stanford

Khalil Tate, Arizona

Keep eyes on Washington’s Jacob Eason and Washington State’s Gage Gebrud.

 

Top Offense

Oregon

Utah

Washington

 

Top Defense

California

Utah

Oregon

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Big 12 Conference–Oklahoma loses Heisman Trophy quarterback Kyler Murray and replaces him with former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.  Will Hurts make a run at the hardware competing against his former teammate?

Can Texas build upon their progress made last year, or will Iowa State or Baylor emerge as the principle rival to the Sooners this year?

 

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Bowls & Playoffs Preview

2017-18 Bowls & Playoffs Schedule

All times are EST

Saturday, December 16

New Orleans Bowl: 1:00 PM on ESPN

North Texas (9-4) vs. Troy (10-2)

 

Cure Bowl: 2:30 PM on CBSSN

Western Kentucky (6-6) vs. Georgia St. (6-5)

 

Las Vegas Bowl: 3:30 PM on ABC

Boise St. (10-3) vs. Oregon (7-5)

 

New Mexico Bowl: 4:30 PM on ESPN

Marshall (7-5) vs. Colorado St. (7-5)

 

Camellia Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Middle Tennessee (6-6) vs. Arkansas St. (7-4)

 

Tuesday, December 19

Boca Raton Bowl: 7:00 PM on ESPN

Akron (7-6) vs. Florida Atlantic (10-3)

 

Wednesday, December 20

Frisco Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

SMU (7-5) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-6)

 

Thursday, December 21

Gasparilla Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Temple (6-6) vs. Florida Int’l. (8-4)

 

Friday, December 22

Bahamas Bowl: 12:30 PM on ESPN

UAB (8-4) vs. Ohio U. (8-4)

 

Idaho Potato Bowl: 4:00 PM on ESPN

Central Michigan (8-4) vs. Wyoming (7-5)

 

Saturday, December 23

Birmingham Bowl: 12:00 PM on ESPN

South Florida (9-2) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)

 

Armed Forces Bowl: 3:30 PM on ESPN

Army (9-3) vs. San Diego St. (10-2)

 

Dollar General Bowl: 7:00 PM on ESPN

Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian St. (8-4)

 

Sunday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl: 8:30 PM on ESPN

Houston (7-4) vs. Fresno St. (9-4)

 

Tuesday, December 26

Heart of Dallas Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

West Virginia (7-5) vs. Utah (6-6)

 

Quick Lane Bowl: 5:00 PM on ESPN

Duke (6-6) vs. Northern Illinois (8-4)

 

Cactus Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. UCLA (6-6)

 

Wednesday, December 27

Independence Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

Florida St. (6-6) vs. Southern Miss. (8-4)

 

Pinstripe Bowl: 5:15 PM on ESPN

Boston College (7-5) vs. Iowa (7-5)

 

Foster Farms: 8:30 PM on Fox

Purdue (6-6) vs. Arizona (7-5)

 

Texas Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

Texas (6-6) vs. Missouri (7-5)

 

Thursday, December 28

Military Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

Navy (6-6) vs. Virginia (6-6)

 

Camping World Bowl: 5:15 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma St. (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (9-3)

 

Holiday Bowl: 9:00 PM on FS1

Michigan St. (9-3) vs. Washington St. (9-3)

 

Alamo Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

TCU (10-3) vs. Stanford (9-4)

 

Friday, December 29

Belk Bowl: 1:00 PM on ESPN

Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)

 

Sun Bowl: 3:00 PM on CBS

North Carolina St. (8-4) vs. Arizona St. (7-5)

 

Music City Bowl: 4:30 PM on ESPN

Kentucky (7-5) vs. Northwestern (9-3)

 

Arizona Bowl: 5:30 PM on CBSSN

Utah St. (6-6) vs. New Mexico St. (6-6)

 

Cotton Bowl: 8:30 PM on ESPN

Ohio St. (11-2) vs. USC (11-2)

 

Saturday, December 30

Taxslayer Bowl: 12:00 PM on ESPN

Louisville (8-4) vs. Mississippi St. (8-4)

 

Liberty Bowl: 12:30 PM on ABC

Iowa St. (7-5) vs. Memphis (10-2)

 

Fiesta Bowl: 4:00 PM on ESPN

Penn St. (10-2) vs. Washington (10-2)

 

Orange Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Wisconsin (12-1) vs. Miami (Fla.) (10-2)

 

Monday, January 1

Outback Bowl: 12:00 OM on ESPN2

Michigan (8-4) vs. South Carolina (8-4)

 

Peach Bowl: 12:30 PM on ESPN

Auburn (10-3) vs. Central Florida (12-0)

 

Citrus Bowl: 1:00 PM on ABC

Notre Dame (9-3) vs. LSU (9-3)

 

New Year’s Day Playoffs

Rose Bowl: 5:00 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Georgia (12-1)

 

Sugar Bowl: 8:45 PM on ESPN

Clemson (12-1) vs. Alabama (11-1)

 

Monday, January 8

National Championship Game: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner

 

PiRate Rating Spreads for Bowls/Playoffs

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Texas	Troy	-12.5	-11.2	-11.8
Georgia St.	Western Kentucky	-6.6	-6.9	-7.3
Boise St.	Oregon	-6.6	-5.7	-5.9
Marshall	Colorado St.	-10.4	-8.0	-8.7
Middle Tennessee	Arkansas St.	-5.9	-5.7	-5.7
Florida Atlantic	Akron	15.2	14.8	16.4
SMU	Louisiana Tech	11.7	10.5	11.1
Florida Int’l.	Temple	-5.8	-6.1	-5.2
UAB	Ohio U	-14.7	-16.3	-13.6
Wyoming	Central Michigan	0.4	-0.8	-1.4
South Florida	Texas Tech	3.8	3.2	4.5
San Diego St.	Army	2.4	2.3	3.2
Appalachian St.	Toledo	-5.9	-7.1	-7.7
Fresno St.	Houston	-3.5	-4.5	-2.7
West Virginia	Utah	0.2	0.7	0.2
Northern Illinois	Duke	-14.7	-13.8	-12.8
UCLA	Kansas St.	-7.7	-8.5	-8.4
Southern Miss.	Florida St.	-29.4	-27.4	-27.3
Boston College	Iowa	-0.3	-1.0	0.5
Arizona	Purdue	0.8	-0.3	-0.8
Texas	Missouri	4.2	6.3	5.5
Navy	Virginia	-1.1	0.5	-1.2
Oklahoma St.	Virginia Tech	1.9	1.8	2.6
TCU	Stanford	-1.3	-1.2	-0.6
Washington St.	Michigan St.	5.8	3.1	4.2
Wake Forest	Texas A&M	6.4	6.6	7.4
Arizona St.	North Carolina St.	-8.3	-8.7	-8.4
Kentucky	Northwestern	-8.4	-7.9	-9.9
New Mexico St.	Utah St.	-9.1	-9.6	-8.8
Ohio St.	USC	11.6	10.4	12.2
Mississippi St.	Louisville	-5.6	-4.5	-5.8
Memphis	Iowa St.	4.0	3.1	3.9
Washington	Penn St.	-2.4	-3.5	-2.7
Miami (Fla.)	Wisconsin	-3.4	-2.1	-3.6
South Carolina	Michigan	-8.3	-8.6	-8.6
Auburn	Central Florida	15.8	12.5	14.8
Notre Dame	LSU	-3.1	-1.8	-3.6
Oklahoma	Georgia	-2.4	-3.2	-1.8
Alabama	Clemson	2.8	2.4	1.7

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Final Regular Season Polls

The PiRate Poll has been updated after the Conference Championship Games, and our ratings show something different from what the Playoff Committee will decide later today.

Our Retrodictive Ratings are our closest approximation to merit based rewards.  It only factors who you beat, where you beat them, when you beat them, and in minimal fashion how you beat them.  Here are our final Retro Ratings prior to the bowls and playoffs.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Georgia
3	Oklahoma
4	Alabama
5	Ohio St.
6	Wisconsin
7	Central Florida
8	Penn St.
9	Auburn
10	Washington
11	Miami (Fla)
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Oklahoma St.
17	Stanford
18	Michigan St.
19	Michigan
20	Washington St.
21	Northwestern
22	Memphis
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Toledo
33	Wake Forest
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Appalachian St.
75	Colorado
76	Colorado St.
77	Temple
78	Nebraska
79	Western Michigan
80	Tulane
81	Arkansas St.
82	Florida Int’l.
83	Akron
84	Southern Miss.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Cincinnati
100	Western Kentucky
101	Tulsa
102	UNLV
103	Baylor
104	New Mexico St.
105	BYU
106	East Carolina
107	Nevada
108	Georgia St.
109	Massachusetts
110	Connecticut
111	Illinois
112	Old Dominion
113	UL-Monroe
114	Bowling Green
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	South Alabama
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Coastal Carolina
122	Georgia Southern
123	Kansas
124	Kent St.
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

While our ratings show that Alabama should be chosen ahead of Ohio State, we believe there will be too much pressure to take two SEC teams and leave out the Big Ten and Pac-12, especially when the Rose Bowl is one of the semifinal games.

Our ratings reflect a 34-point loss by Ohio State at a mediocre Iowa team combined with a home loss to Oklahoma, which slightly offsets their wins over Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Alabama’s best wins were not as impressive as the Buckeyes, but as a whole, they did beat more decent teams, and the SEC is several points better than the Big Ten.  Plus, their one loss was at Auburn, a team that had just blown Georgia off the Jordan-Hare Field.  Truth be told, if the Committee deferred to the smart guys in Nevada, Alabama would be the number one seed in the playoffs.

Our Predictive ratings back us up on this point.  However, the predictive ratings show that Ohio State is one of the four best teams at this point of the season.  We are scratching our heads on why Oklahoma is so low in the predictive ratings, because they have been improving week by week.  Unfortunately, they may have fallen between the cracks in how we update.  We have a mechanical update based on statistics and the point in which an easy win was already guaranteed, and maybe OU kept missing out on extra points due to a few yards here or there.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Clemson	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
3	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
4	Georgia	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
5	Auburn	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
6	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
7	Oklahoma	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
11	U S C	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
12	Stanford	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
13	Miami	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
14	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
15	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
16	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
17	T C U	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
18	Florida St.	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
46	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
47	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
48	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
49	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
50	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
51	Boise St.	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Florida Atlantic	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
63	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
64	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
65	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Fresno St.	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
71	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
74	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
75	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
76	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
77	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Arkansas St.	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
80	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
81	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
82	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
83	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
84	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
85	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
92	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	Massachusetts	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
98	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
99	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
100	Akron	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
103	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
104	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
105	N. Texas	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
113	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
114	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
115	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
116	UL-Monroe	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
117	S. Alabama	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
118	Idaho	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
119	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
120	Georgia St.	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
121	UL-Lafayette	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
122	Georgia Southern	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
123	Coastal Carolina	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
124	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	12-0	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-2	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	12-1	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	6-6	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-2	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	12-1	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-3	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	11-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-1	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	10-3	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	8-4	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
N. Texas	7-1	9-4	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-8	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Akron	6-2	7-6	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	11-2	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	10-3	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-4	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-4	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	11-2	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	12-1	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-3	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	7-1	10-2	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
Appalachian St.	7-1	8-4	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
Arkansas St.	6-2	7-4	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
N. Mexico St.	4-4	6-6	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-8	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
S. Alabama	3-5	4-8	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
Idaho	3-5	4-8	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
Georgia St.	5-3	6-5	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
UL-Lafayette	4-4	5-7	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
Georgia Southern	2-6	2-10	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
Coastal Carolina	2-6	3-9	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
2	SEC	112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
5	BIG TEN	108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
11	Sun Belt	83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

Look for our bowl and playoff spreads following next week’s Army – Navy game.

If you didn’t see our Army-Navy spread last week, it is:

Philadelphia	PA	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army (n)	Navy	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3

Why the unique color purple?

This is what we call Love Purple.  You can replicate it with the RGB of 69-0-169 and the Hex Code of 4500A9.

Love purple is the official logo color of our mom and pop company in Nashville.  We are highly appreciative of all our supporters here, and we wish you a loving and joyous holiday season.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

80 teams, but only 77 of them are 6-6 or better.  Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose State are the three 5-7 teams with the top APR scores, excluding Missouri, which opted out.

 

The at-large selections came down to an issue with one bowl where it appears that two teams from the same conference will be forced to play.  We selected a matchup of teams that avoided each other in conference play in making our final projections.

 

Our regular ratings and actual bowl coverage will begin Monday after all actual choices have been made.

 

BOWL PROJECTIONS–December 6, 2015

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Tulsa	vs.	Georgia St.
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Central Michigan *
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Utah	vs.	BYU
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio	vs.	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	San Jose St. *	vs.	Colorado St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Temple	vs.	Toledo
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Boise St.	vs.	Northern Illinois
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Bowling Green	vs.	Georgia Southern
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Western Michigan
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Cincinnati	vs.	San Diego St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	Connecticut	vs.	Marshall
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami	vs.	USC
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Utah St. *	vs.	Southern Miss.
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC	Arizona *	vs.	Duke
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Nebraska	vs.	UCLA
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina St.	vs.	Navy
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Akron *	vs.	Minnesota
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Washington *	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina	vs.	Baylor
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Arizona St. *	vs.	Nevada
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	vs.	Auburn
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Louisville	vs.	Texas A&M
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Florida St.	vs.	Houston
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Alabama	vs.	Michigan St.
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Clemson	vs.	Oklahoma
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	vs.	Washington St.
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan	vs.	Florida
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Iowa	vs.	Notre Dame
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Georgia
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	Oregon
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	vs.	California
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Michigan St.	vs.	Oklahoma
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

PiRate Ratings FBS Playoffs Computer Simulation–Simper Bowl VIII

We apologize for not having this post published when it was supposed to come out.  Major computer issues with substantial losses of data forced us to run an end around play to get back online.

Today, we are combining our annual Simper Bowl computer simulated playoffs (not like the actual playoffs–read prior postings under this category for a complete explanation) with the 100 simulations run for both actual Playoff games.

First, let’s start with our Simper Bowl Results.

In Simper Bowl VIII, #3-seed TCU squared off against #5-seed Baylor in our version of our 12-team playoff.  The game was played in Arlington, TX, and due to the proximity of both clubs, no home-field advantage was added, as we felt that both teams would have an equal amount of fans, and TCU was not all that much closer to the stadium to earn any extra advantage.

AND YOUR 2014 SIMPER BOWL VIII CHAMPION IS……………………

TCU!  Congratulations to the Horned Frogs, the team the computer simulator judged to be the best team in the nation.

Final Score: TCU 38  Baylor 26

STATS

First Downs: TC 27  BA 20

Rushing: TC 45-203  BA 23-67

Passing: TC 226  BA 291

Passes: TC 20-32-0  BA 28-51-1

Play-Yds: TC 77-429  BA 74-358

After 1st Qtr.: TCU 10  Baylor 6

Half: TCU 17  Baylor 16

After 3rd Qtr.: TCU 31  Baylor 19

********************************************

100 Sims of Actual Rose and Sugar Bowls

We simulated both Playoff games 100 times.  Here are the results.

Rose Bowl

#2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida St.

Outright Wins: Florida St. 57  Oregon 43

Average Score: Florida St. 24.9  Oregon 22.5

Outlier A: Florida St. 40  Oregon 22

Outlier B: Oregon 45  Florida St. 20

Sugar Bowl

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio St.

Outright Wins: Alabama 89  Ohio St. 11

Average Score: Alabama 32.6  Ohio St. 21.7

Outlier A: Alabama 44  Ohio St. 13

Outlier B: Ohio St. 29  Alabama 23

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Final Four

The semifinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and we now know who will play for the Simper Bowl title. If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

In the quarterfinal round, #1 Alabama knocked off #8 Mississippi St. 30-17; #7 Ole Miss upset #2 Oregon 24-22; #3 TCU dismissed #6 Florida St. 42-24; and #5 Baylor won at #4 Ohio St. 40-38/
The format for the Final Four is identical to the actual FBS Playoffs. In today’s simulation, we have #7 Ole Miss facing #3 TCU in the Rose Bowl, followed by #1 Alabama and #5 Baylor facing off in the Sugar Bowl.

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.
Rose Bowl
#3 TCU 27 #7 Ole Miss 10

Stats
First Downs: TC 19 OM 13
Rushing: TC 37-149 OM 32-89
Passing: TC 197 OM 239
Passes: TC 19-33-0 OM 21-39-4
Play-Yds: TC 70-346 OM 71-328
After 1st Qtr: TC 0 OM 0
Half: TC 7 OM 7
After 3rd Qtr: TC 20 OM 7

Sugar Bowl
#5 Baylor 26 #1 Alabama 24

Stats
First Downs BA 20 AL 19
Rushing: BA 26-79 AL 35-243
Passing: BA 419 AL 238
Passes: BA 35-53-1 AL 19-34-3
Play-Yds: BA 79-498 AL 69-481
After 1st Qtr: AL 10 BA 3
Half: AL 17 BA 16
After 3rd Qtr: BA 19 AL 17

And lo and behold, look who will be facing off in Simper Bowl VIII? It’s the two Big 12 teams that were not invited to the real inaugural playoffs. The simulator says that TCU and Baylor are the two best teams. As Former Texas Governor Rick Perry might say, “Oops!”

Return to this site on Tuesday, December 23 for the results of the simulation for the National Championship between Baylor and TCU.

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowl Projections

Thanksgiving weekend proved to be the biggest mover and shaker of the FBS standings of any week so far, as the Playoff Four lost one team, multiple Power Five Conference races were affected, and the top two leading contenders in the Group of Five conference race for a Big Six Bowl were upset.

Thus, a majority of the bowls see new teams gracing their predicted path. Let’s review all the changes from the weekend.

The ACC showed the SEC for one weekend who their daddy was, as the league went 4-0 against the bully. Georgia Tech may have earned a slot in a Big Four bowl even if the Yellow Jackets lose to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Louisville and Clemson both could have moved ahead of Duke in the selection order with wins over their in-state rivals.

Pittsburgh won at Miami to become bowl eligible, and the ACC now has 11 bowl eligible teams. Unless two ACC teams receive Big Six Bowl invitations, the league will have one too many bowl eligible teams. Miami and Boston College will be the two contenders to not receive a bid, if Georgia Tech fails to earn a Big Six Bowl.

The Big Ten saw Wisconsin defeat Minnesota to win the West Division flag, but two other major news items will affect the bowl bids from this league. Ohio State dismissed rival Michigan, but it came at a very costly price. Losing quarterback J. T. Barrett for the season in the final half is something the Buckeyes probably won’t be able to overcome with one week to prepare for the Badgers. Cardale Jones has limited playing experience, mostly in a mop-up role, and the sophomore was passed on the depth chart by the freshman Barrett.

Additionally, the Buckeye nation will deal with the tragic suicide of Kosta Karageorge.

Nebraska coach Bo Pelini was served his walking papers Sunday, and he will not be around to coach his team in the Cornhuskers’ bowl. The home loss to Minnesota was unforgivable to NU fans that believe that the days of Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne can be replicated in the 21st Century. A 66-27 record was not good enough. Frank Solich left Nebraska with a 58-19 record, as the fans in Lincoln felt that was not good enough. Remember Bill Callahan? He replaced Solich and took NU to a 27-22 record, including memorable losses to Texas Tech by 60 points and surrendering 76 points to Kansas.

Rumors have it that the Nebraska football players are quite agitated over this move, and there could be implications in the postseason. Interim Head Coach Barney Cotton will not have a chance to become the ne head coach, but Cotton should not be unemployed for long. He is one of the best offensive line coaches and a very credible offensive coordinator, producing great results everywhere he has been, including producing very successful offenses at schools like New Mexico State and Iowa State. When even your punter is making public statements against this firing, you know there is fire. Rumor also has it that many committed recruits are now backing out of their commitment, and the program could be on the verge of other programs that saw negative reactions like this bring a program down for a decade.

Baylor’s narrow win over a weak Texas Tech team may keep the Bears out of the Final Four, even though they beat TCU and will be the Big 12 Champions if they defeat Kansas State in Waco this week. The Horned Frogs demolished Texas doing what the selection committee calls “controlling the game for 60 minutes.”

Arizona emerged as the Pac-12 South winner after UCLA’s offense stagnated against Stanford, while the Cardinal offense accumulated plus 200 yards both on the ground and through the air. California and Oregon State both failed to win their sixth game, leaving the conference with eight bowl eligible teams. Since the Pac-12 Championship Game loser should still earn a Big Six Bowl bid, this league will not have an extra team available to go elsewhere as an at-large bowl substitute.

The SEC came away the loser of the weekend. With Mississippi State losing to Ole Miss, the SEC now can only hope to put one team in the Playoffs. Should Missouri upset Alabama in the conference title game, the SEC could actually be shut out of the Playoffs if Florida State, Oregon, TCU, and Baylor win.

With Tennessee defeating Vanderbilt, the league finishes with 12 bowl eligible teams. There will most likely be one extra team remaining after bowl bids go out, and obviously any SEC team still without a bowl will become the leading at-large candidate, regardless of any secondary bowl agreements with lesser leagues.

The Group of Five conferences now looks to Boise, Idaho, this weekend. If Boise State takes care of business and dismisses a 6-6 Fresno State team in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, the Broncos will most likely head to the Fiesta Bowl. Should the Bulldogs pull off the big upset, then Memphis might be the leader in the clubhouse for a possible Peach Bowl bid. The Tigers finished up their regular season with a 9-3 record and share of the AAC Championship.

Our conference-by-conference bowl look continues. Won-loss records shown are our projections.

[  ] indicates a team is an at-large selection for the bowl for which we have projected.

Group of Five Conferences

American Athletic Conference
As mentioned previously, Memphis concluded the regular season with a 41-10 romping over Connecticut. The Tigers are assured of a tie for the AAC title with a 7-1 mark. If Boise State beats Fresno State, the Tigers’ reward might be a trip to Birmingham. The league champion deserves a better fate than playing in a run-down, falling apart stadium. What’s worse is that Coach Justin Fuente might be leaving the Bluff City for ritzier football climes, like Lincoln, Nebraska for instance.

Cincinnati, Central Florida, East Carolina, and Houston will earn bowl bids, while Temple must beat Tulane in New Orleans to become bowl eligible. We believe the Owls will win but find no bowl invitations forthcoming.

1. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis 7-1/9-3 (vs. Florida)
2. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida 6-2/8-4 (vs. Miami)
3. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati 7-1/9-3 (vs. BYU)
4. Military Bowl: East Carolina 6-2/9-3 (vs. Pittsburgh)
5. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston 5-3/7-5 (vs. [ South Carolina ])

Also Bowl Eligible: Temple 4-4/6-6

Conference USA
What a losing week for CUSA! First, Marshall’s upset home loss to Western Kentucky rearranged the entire bowl order for this league. The Thundering Herd will not move up to a Big Six Bowl, and now there will be a glut of bowl eligible teams for this league’s guaranteed five bowl bids. With eight bowl eligible teams, three will most likely be left out of the postseason bonanza. Definitely, one of that sad trio will be UAB, as the Blazers will be shutting down their football program this week, the first FBS school to do so since Pacific almost 20 years ago.

1. Hawaii Bowl: Marshall 7-1/12-1 (vs. Air Force)
2. Bahamas Bowl: Louisiana Tech 7-1/8-5 (vs. Northern Illinois)
3. Boca Raton Bowl: Rice 5-3/7-5 (vs. Toledo)
4. New Mexico Bowl: UTEP 5-3/7-5 (vs. Utah St.)
5. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Western Kentucky 4-4/7-5 (vs. [ Texas St. ])

Also Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennessee 5-3/6-6, Old Dominion 4-4/6-6, UAB 4-4/6-6

Mid-American Conference
Northern Illinois won at Western Michigan to clinch the West Division title, while Bowling Green was the only East Division team with a plus .500 conference mark. The West has the top four teams in NIU, Toledo, WMU, and CMU.

Ohio was a leader for an at-large bowl bid until the SEC’s lost weekend more than likely created an extra at-large bowl bid for the top league.

The Huskies would be 11-2 with a win over BGU in the MAC title game, but that probably would not be enough to move NIU into the Big Six Bowl picture.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Northern Illinois 7-1/11-2 (vs. Louisiana Tech)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo 7-1/8-4 (vs. Rice)
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan 6-2/8-4 (vs. Fresno St.)
4. Camellia Bowl: Central Michigan 5-3/7-5 (vs. Appalachian St.)
5. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Bowling Green 5-3/7-6 (vs. Arkansas St.)

Also Bowl Eligible: Ohio 4-4/6-6

Mountain West Conference
Of the Group of Five teams, Boise State now has the most spectacular resume. The Broncos lost to Ole Miss and Air Force, two definite bowl teams. So, if BSU defeats Fresno State this week in the league title game, Boise should be headed to Tempe, Arizona, for the Fiesta Bowl, or possibly Arlington, Texas, for the Cotton Bowl. If this happens, then all seven bowl eligible teams will go bowling.

If Fresno State loses at Boise, the Bulldogs will finish 6-7, but it appears that FSU would still be bowl eligible in this case, as has happened in the past with other teams, most notably UCLA in 2011.

1. BIG SIX—Fiesta Bowl: Boise St. 7-1/11-2 (vs. Arizona)
2. Las Vegas Bowl: Colorado St. 6-2/10-2 (vs. Stanford)
3. Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego St. 5-3/7-5 (vs. Navy)
4. Hawaii Bowl: Air Force 5-3/9-3 (vs. Marshall)
5. New Mexico Bowl: Utah St. 6-2/9-4 (UTEP)
6. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada 4-4/7-5 (vs. Louisiana-Lafayette)
7. Idaho Potato Bowl: Fresno St. 5-3/6-7 (vs. Western Michigan)

Sunbelt Conference
The SBC finished with five bowl eligible teams for three bowl tie-ins. We believe that one of the extra bowl eligible teams will garner the last available at-large bid.

Georgia Southern technically is the sixth bowl eligible team, but the Eagles are in their final transition season before earning total FBS membership. GSU won the SBC title, but they failed to receive a waiver to become bowl eligible. An appeal was filed, but don’t count on this team getting into a bowl, even though they are clearly the titan of the league this year with near wins over bowl eligible Georgia Tech and North Carolina State teams.

Louisiana Lafayette is the top actual bowl eligible team, and the Ragin’ Cajuns have appeared in three consecutive New Orleans Bowl games. Technically, the GoDaddy bowl gets first choice of SBC teams, and they have selected Arkansas State three years running. We had switched the teams last week, but we are going back to selecting the trend to continue.

1. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas St. 5-3/7-5 (vs. Bowling Green)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette 7-1/8-4 (vs. Nevada)
3. Camellia Bowl: Appalachian St. 6-2/7-5 (vs. Central Michigan)
4. Heart of Dallas Bowl: [ Texas St. ] 5-3/7-5 vs. (Western Kentucky)

Also Bowl Eligible: South Alabama 5-3/6-6

Independents (not including Notre Dame)
Not much changed here this week. BYU had already clinched their Miami Bowl berth. Navy officially clinched their Poinsettia Bowl bid, while Army had already been eliminated from bowl eligibility.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: BYU 8-4 (vs. Cincinnati)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Navy 7-5 (vs. San Diego St.)

Power Five Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State’s resume gained a little clout this week with Louisville, Clemson, and Georgia Tech defeating SEC rivals. Should the Seminoles beat the Yellow Jackets in this week’s conference title game, FSU is without a doubt in the initial College Football Playoffs.

With Georgia Tech at 10-2 and Louisville, Clemson, and Duke at 9-3, odds are very good that the ACC will receive the Gator Bowl bid over the Big Ten, while the Big Ten is stuck with the Music City Bowl.

It will be interesting to see how far Notre Dame falls in the bowl pecking order, as they concluded the season on a four-game losing streak and 1-5 in the second half of the season. It figures the Irish will get into a tier 2 ACC bowl, but it will be a lower tier 2. They cannot pass any 9-3 team in bowl selections.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Florida St. 8-0/13-0 (vs. Oregon)
2. BIG SIX—Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech 6-2/10-3 (vs. Wisconsin)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Clemson 6-2/9-3 (vs. Kansas St.)
4. Gator Bowl: Louisville 5-3/9-3 (vs. Georgia)
5. Belk Bowl: Duke 5-3/9-3 (vs. Auburn)
6. Sun Bowl: Notre Dame 7-5 (vs. Washington)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: North Carolina St. 3-5/7-5 (vs. Rutgers)
8. Military Bowl: Pittsburgh 4-4/6-6 (vs. East Carolina)
9. Independence Bowl: North Carolina 4-4/6-6 (vs. Texas A&M)
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Virginia Tech 3-5/6-6 (vs. Illinois)
11. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami 3-5/6-6 (vs. Central Florida)
12. Texas Bowl: [ Boston College ] 4-4/7-5 (vs. LSU)

Big Ten
Ohio State has now had three significant quarterback injuries in two seasons. In 2013, Braxton Miller missed time early in the season. Kenny Guiton filled in and performed like an All-American with an even higher QB rating than Miller and an ability to run the ball almost as competently as the Heisman Trophy contender.

Once again, Miller sustained an injury this season, missing the entire campaign. Guiton was no longer around, so the backup roll fell in the hands of redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett, who merely came in and performed like an All-American just like Guiton last year.

Now, Barrett is out for the season. Can Coach Urban Meyer find All-American quarterback play in a third stringer that was passed on the depth chart by Guiton last year and Barrett this year? Cardale Jones is not an All-American caliber signal caller. He is better than the average sub, but in baseball terminology, his value over a replacement player is small.

Wisconsin is playing its best ball in November, dismissing their top three contenders in consecutive weeks to earn the West Division crown. A punishing ground game makes the mediocre passing game a little more potent, while the defense is better than average but not great. The difference in this game is that Joel Stave has significant big game experience, and we believe the Badgers will win the game this week and earn a trip to the Orange Bowl, beating out an SEC team for the privilege.

Illinois earned bowl eligibility while preventing rival Northwestern from earning that honor, while Michigan came up short in their upset bid over Ohio State.

1. BIG SIX—Orange Bowl: Wisconsin 7-1/11-2 (vs. Georgia Tech)
2. BIG SIX—Cotton Bowl: Ohio St. 8-0/11-2 (vs. Baylor)
3. BIG SIX—Peach Bowl: Michigan St. 7-1/10-2 (vs. Mississippi St.)
4. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska 5-3/9-3 (vs. Missouri)
5. Outback Bowl: Minnesota 5-3/8-4 (vs. Ole Miss)
6. Holiday Bowl: Iowa 4-4/7-5 (vs. UCLA)
7. Music City Bowl: Maryland 4-4/7-5 (vs. Tennessee)
8. San Francisco Bowl: Penn St. 2-6/6-6 (vs. USC)
9. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers 3-5/7-5 (vs. North Carolina St.)
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Illinois 3-5/6-6 (vs. Virginia Tech)

No League Team Available for the final bowl tie-in (Heart of Dallas or Armed Forces)

Big 12 Conference
Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty is adamant that he will play against Kansas State this week after suffering a mild concussion against Texas Tech, said injury causing headaches, double vision, and other issues. Even if Petty plays, Kansas State is not a pushover, and this game could be close with the visiting Wildcats definitely in contention.

TCU has conference bottom feeder Iowa State in Ft. Worth, and the Horned Frogs have two extra days preparation for this game, so it figures that TCU will win with ease to finish 11-1.

Oklahoma State still has slim bowl eligibility chances, but the Cowboys must win at Oklahoma this week. If the Sooners win, the Big 12 will definitely come up shy in its obligations to supply teams to at least seven bowls, and realistically eight bowls, since two league teams will be in Big Six Bowls.

1. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: TCU 8-1/11-1 (vs. Alabama)
2. BIG SIX—Cotton Bowl: Baylor 8-1/11-1 (vs. Ohio St.)
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma 6-3/9-3 (vs. Arizona St.)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Kansas St. 7-2/9-3 (vs. Clemson)
5. Liberty Bowl: Texas 5-4/6-6 (vs. Arkansas)
6. Cactus Bowl: West Virginia 5-4/7-5 (vs. Utah)

No League Team Available for the final two bowl tie-ins (Texas and Heart of Dallas or Armed Forces)

Pac-12 Conference
Oregon has lost three games in two seasons. Two of those three losses came at the hands of Arizona, the Ducks’ Pac-12 Championship Game opponent. If OU can figure out how to beat the Wildcats, the Ducks will be swimming in Pasadena on New Year’s Day. If Arizona wins again, the Wildcats have an infinitesimal chance of moving into the Final Four, needing Ohio State, Baylor, and Florida State or Alabama to lose.

Oregon State and California were eliminated from bowl eligibility, and with chances likely that the loser of the Championship Game will end up in Tempe, this league no longer appears to have an extra team for at-large bowl possibilities.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Oregon 8-1/12-1 (vs. Florida St.)
2. BIG SIX—Fiesta Bowl: Arizona 7-2/10-3 (vs. Boise St.)
3. Alamo Bowl: Arizona St. 6-3/9-3 (vs. Oklahoma)
4. Holiday Bowl: UCLA 6-3/9-3 (vs. Iowa)
5. San Francisco Bowl: USC 6-3/8-4 (vs. Penn St.)
6. Sun Bowl: Washington 4-5/8-5 (vs. Notre Dame)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Stanford 5-4/7-5 (vs. Colorado St.)
8. Cactus Bowl: Utah 5-4/8-4 (vs. West Virginia)

Southeastern Conference
The SEC West cannibalized itself this season, as all seven teams went undefeated outside of conference play but beat each other up to the point where only Alabama emerged with a chance to make the Final Four. If the Crimson Tide do the unthinkable and lose to Missouri, then the SEC just might be left out of the first Big Dance on the gridiron.

Mississippi State should still receive a Big Six Bowl, probably in Atlanta, where the Bulldog fans hopefully will show up and not take it as a door prize. If Missouri beats Alabama, the Tigers will then knock Wisconsin out of the Orange Bowl, but we are sticking with the Tide to win.

There are going to be excellent opportunities to make some very interesting and competitive bowl games with all the bowl eligible teams. Because the league wants no part of pairing Texas A&M and Texas, the Aggies will be placed in a bowl where Texas cannot be the opponent. However, in doing so, it may open up the chance to pit old rivals Texas and Arkansas against each other. Also, Missouri could be paired against Nebraska in an old rivalry game.

There is going to be one extra bowl eligible team from the SEC, but that team will be the number one choice when the at-large invitations are doled out.

1. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: Alabama 7-1/12-1 (vs. TCU)
2. BIG SIX—Peach Bowl: Mississippi St. 6-2/10-2 (vs. Michigan St.)
3. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Missouri 7-1/10-3 (vs. Nebraska)
4. Outback Bowl: Ole Miss 5-3/9-3 (vs. Minnesota)
5. Gator Bowl: Georgia 6-2/9-3 (vs. Louisville)
6. Belk Bowl: Auburn 4-4/8-4 (vs. Duke)
7. Texas Bowl: LSU 4-4/8-4 (vs. [ Boston College ])
8. Music City Bowl: Tennessee 3-5/6-6 (vs. Maryland)
9. Liberty Bowl: Arkansas 2-6/6-6 (vs. Texas)
10. Independence Bowl: Texas A&M 3-5/7-5 (vs. North Carolina)
11. Birmingham Bowl: Florida 4-4/6-5 (vs. Memphis)
12. Armed Forces Bowl: [ South Carolina ] 3-5/6-6 vs. Houston