The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 31, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 1, 2023

HomeVisitorSpread
AmericanBucknell7.6
AuburnGeorgia11.4
Boston U.Holy Cross7.8
BradleySouthern Illinois5.3
BryantMaine7.1
Cal BaptistSouthern Utah-0.4
CampbellUSC Upstate4.4
Charleston SouthernGardner-Webb-3.2
CincinnatiTulsa16.3
DrakeNorthern Iowa9.1
East Tennessee St.Wofford-0.6
EvansvilleIndiana St.-12.3
FloridaTennessee-7.0
FurmanChattanooga7.0
George MasonMassachusetts3.8
GeorgetownCreighton-14.0
Illinois St.Illinois Chicago5.1
La SalleGeorge Washington-0.3
LafayetteNavy0.5
LehighArmy1.1
LouisvilleGeorgia Tech-3.2
MarquetteVillanova10.6
MissouriLSU10.0
Missouri St.Valparaiso10.0
Murray St.Belmont0.1
New Mexico St.Stephen F. Austin-1.2
NJITNew Hampshire-0.7
North CarolinaPittsburgh8.3
North Carolina St.Florida St.11.8
OklahomaOklahoma St.1.9
PresbyterianRadford-7.9
PurduePenn St.9.6
RichmondSt. Bonaventure5.0
RutgersMinnesota17.2
Saint Joseph’sRhode Island4.1
SeattleAbilene Christian8.0
South FloridaEast Carolina7.0
St. John’sSeton Hall0.8
TulaneSMU9.4
UMass LowellAlbany13.9
UMBCBinghamton8.8
UT ArlingtonTarleton St.-2.9
UT-Rio Grande ValleySam Houston-12.2
Utah St.New Mexico3.4
Western CarolinaSamford-3.4
WinthropLongwood-2.3
XavierProvidence4.9

January 24, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
AkronMiami (O)13.8
ArkansasLSU12.4
Ball St.Buffalo4.6
Boise St.Fresno St.13.9
Central MichiganBowling Green0.4
ClemsonGeorgia Tech10.3
DrakeIndiana St.5.8
East CarolinaTulsa4.8
Florida St.Miami (Fla)-5.2
GeorgetownDePaul-1.9
IllinoisOhio St.2.2
Iowa St.Kansas St.5.2
La SalleDavidson-3.5
MississippiMissouri0.4
Missouri St.Illinois Chicago11.6
North Carolina St.Notre Dame12.4
Northern IllinoisKent St.-13.0
OhioWestern Michigan10.2
RutgersPenn St.6.1
San Jose St.Air Force3.1
Southern IllinoisMurray St.6.1
SyracuseNorth Carolina-3.5
TCUOklahoma7.0
TexasOklahoma St.7.5
ToledoEastern Michigan19.1
UNLVWyoming7.8
VanderbiltKentucky-2.5

January 18, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 18. 2023

HomeVisitorSpread
AmericanLafayette5.1
ArmyBucknell5.6
CaliforniaOregon-7.4
CampbellRadford-1.7
Central ArkansasNorth Alabama0.3
Charleston SouthernUNC Asheville-2.3
ChattanoogaFurman1.2
Colorado St.San Diego St-4.9
DePaulXavier-9.1
DrakeMissouri St.6.2
East Tennessee St.Samford-3.7
Grand CanyonUtah Tech10.9
High PointWinthrop1.3
Holy CrossColgate-12.4
Indiana St.Bradley0.1
LongwoodGardner Webb5.1
LouisvillePittsburgh-10.7
Loyola (Chi)Saint Louis-7.3
LSUAuburn-5.1
MarquetteProvidence5.7
MissouriArkansas-1.0
Morgan St.Hartford15.6
NavyBoston U.2.8
NebraskaOhio St.-5.5
Northern IowaIllinois St.6.5
Oklahoma St.Oklahoma2.7
Seton HallConnecticut-4.8
South FloridaCincinnati-3.9
St. BonaventureDuquesne-0.4
TempleEast Carolina7.7
Texas A&MFlorida2.0
TulsaSMU-1.4
UMass LowellUMBC5.9
USC UpstatePresbyterian5.5
Utah ValleyAbilene Christian9.1
VirginiaVirginia Tech6.4
West VirginiaTCU1.8
Western CarolinaWofford-0.7

January 10, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:44 pm
HomeVisitorSpread
ArkansasAlabama0.0
ArmyAmerican-0.7
BradleyEvansville19.5
BryantAlbany10.3
BucknellLoyola (MD)7.7
Cal BaptistUtah Valley-1.9
Cal St. BakersfieldUC Santa Barbara-7.7
Cal St. NorthridgeUC Davis-5.9
Central FloridaMemphis1.4
Charleston SouthernHigh Point-0.4
ChattanoogaWestern Carolina8.2
CincinnatiEast Carolina11.5
ClemsonLouisville17.9
ColgateBoston U.10.3
DavidsonRichmond0.6
DelawareTowson-1.9
DukePittsburgh8.3
ElonNorth Carolina A&T-2.8
Florida Int’l.Florida Atlantic-12.6
GeorgiaMississippi St.-1.7
HofstraMonmouth20.1
HoustonSouth Florida24.5
Illinois St.Missouri St.-4.5
Indiana St.Southern Illinois4.2
LehighHoly Cross5.0
MaineNew Hampshire2.4
MarquetteConnecticut-2.3
MassachusettsLa Salle8.6
MercerFurman-5.0
Miami (Fla)Boston College13.5
NavyLafayette6.1
NJITBinghamton2.8
North TexasLouisiana Tech8.5
NorthwesternRutgers-1.1
Penn St.Indiana-1.5
PresbyterianGardner Webb-6.8
Rhode IslandSt. Bonaventure0.7
RiceMiddle Tennessee0.0
Saint Joseph’sDuquesne-3.0
Saint LouisGeorge Mason5.9
SamfordWofford3.0
SMUTulane-3.0
SyracuseVirginia Tech-1.9
Tarleton St.Chicago St.10.4
TexasTCU6.9
Texas A&MMissouri0.4
The CitadelEast Tennessee St.0.1
UABWestern Kentucky11.1
UC IrvineCal St. Fullerton9.3
UC San DiegoUC Riverside-4.8
UMass LowellVermont2.5
UNC WilmingtonCharleston-0.4
UNLVBoise St.0.8
USC UpstateCampbell1.4
UT Rio Grande ValleyAbilene Christian-5.0
UTEPUTSA9.5
VMIUNC Greensboro-8.4
Wake ForestFlorida St.7.9
Washington St.California13.0
West VirginiaBaylor2.1
William & MaryHampton7.9
WinthropRadford-1.2
XavierCreighton3.5

January 7, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 7, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
Abilene ChristianSouthern Utah0.3
AlabamaKentucky6.8
Alcorn St.Alabama A&M5.6
ArizonaWashington St.13.1
Arkansas Pine BluffTexas Southern-5.3
AuburnArkansas-0.7
Austin PeayCentral Arkansas8.6
BaylorKansas St.5.0
BelmontMissouri St.0.6
Boise St.Utah St.-0.4
Boston CollegeDuke-10.3
Bowling GreenOhio-3.4
BradleyValparaiso16.0
BrownDartmouth8.2
BuffaloNorthern Illinois9.7
Cal PolyUC Santa Barbara-7.1
Cal St. FullertonHawaii-2.0
CharlestonDelaware11.6
ChattanoogaVMI14.4
Cleveland St.Green Bay15.1
ColoradoOregon St.16.0
Colorado St.Fresno St.4.6
ColumbiaPenn-8.7
ConnecticutCreighton7.9
Coppin St.South Carolina St.6.5
CornellPrinceton2.1
DrakeMurray St.7.3
DrexelMonmouth15.4
East Tennessee St.Furman-5.9
Eastern MichiganCentral Michigan-1.2
Eastern WashingtonSacramento St.5.5
EvansvilleIllinois St.-2.8
Fairleigh DickinsonLong Island11.4
FloridaGeorgia8.7
Florida AtlanticCharlotte9.1
Florida Gulf CoastNorth Florida8.8
Florida Int’l.UAB-13.8
Florida St.Georgia Tech0.6
FordhamSaint Joseph’s4.2
Gardner WebbRadford4.6
George MasonLoyola (Chi.)7.1
George WashingtonMassachusetts-1.6
Georgia SouthernOld Dominion0.3
GramblingBethune Cookman12.7
HamptonNortheastern-4.2
HowardDelaware St.11.6
IdahoPortland St.-1.3
IllinoisWisconsin5.2
Incarnate WordTexas A&M CC-8.9
Indiana St.Illinois Chicago12.5
Jackson St.Alabama St.5.7
JacksonvilleLipscomb4.1
Jacksonville St.Bellarmine0.9
James MadisonAppalachian St.12.7
La SalleRhode Island0.5
LindenwoodTennessee St.-1.0
Little RockSoutheast Missouri St.-2.7
LongwoodWinthrop9.4
LouisianaGeorgia St.8.5
Louisiana MonroeSouthern Miss.-7.1
Louisiana TechUTEP6.6
LouisvilleWake Forest-8.8
Loyola MarymountSan Francisco2.1
MarquetteGeorgetown18.5
MarshallCoastal Carolina11.7
McNeese St.Texas A&M-Commerce0.2
MemphisEast Carolina15.2
MerrimackSt. Francis NY3.4
Miami (O)Kent St.-13.2
Michigan St.Michigan3.6
Middle TennesseeNorth Texas-3.6
MinnesotaNebraska-4.1
Mississippi St.Mississippi4.9
Mississippi Valley St.Prairie View-7.9
MissouriVanderbilt9.5
Morehead St.Eastern Illinois8.2
Morgan St.North Carolina Central-0.9
New MexicoUNLV4.9
New Mexico St.Cal Baptist4.5
New OrleansHouston Christian4.2
Norfolk St.Maryland Eastern Shore7.5
Norhtern IowaSouthern Illinois-1.9
North AlabamaStetson-2.2
North CarolinaNotre Dame13.5
North Carolina A&TUNC Wilmington-7.0
North DakotaSouth Dakota St.-5.4
North Dakota St.South Dakota2.5
Northern ArizonaMontana St.-5.9
Northern ColoradoMontana-1.4
Northwestern St.Nicholls St.-0.7
Oklahoma St.Texas-0.6
Oral RobertsUMKC14.2
PepperdinePacific6.6
PittsburghClemson1.4
PresbyterianCharleston Southern1.5
ProvidenceSt. John’s7.0
Purdue Ft. WayneMilwaukee7.6
QueensKennesaw St.3.5
RichmondDuquesne4.5
Sacred HeartHartford11.5
Saint LouisSt. Bonaventure8.1
Saint Mary’sPortland15.3
Sam Houston St.Tarleton St.10.2
San DiegoBYU-4.7
San Jose St.Nevada-2.2
Santa ClaraGonzaga-8.0
Seton HallButler3.8
South AlabamaTexas St.4.7
South CarolinaTennessee-20.4
Southeastern LouisianaLamar13.6
SouthernFlorida A&M14.4
Southern IndianaSIU Edwardsville-1.2
St. ThomasOmaha8.2
Stephen F. AustinGrand Canyon-1.4
StonehillCentral Connecticut St.3.2
Stony BrookTowson-6.7
TCUIowa St.3.9
TempleTulane0.7
Texas A&MLSU3.4
Texas TechOklahoma-16.8
TroyArkansas St.12.4
UC DavisCal St. Bakersfield7.4
UC IrvineLong Beach St.8.3
UC RiversideCal St. Northridge10.4
UNC AshevilleCampbell5.7
UNC GreensboroSamford4.9
USC UpstateHigh Point-0.9
UT ArlingtonSeattle-3.7
UT MartinTennessee Tech5.6
UT Rio Grande ValleyUtah Valley-10.2
UtahOregon5.5
UTSAWestern Kentucky-7.0
VCUDavidson4.1
VillanovaXavier-1.5
VirginiaSyracuse11.5
Virginia TechNorth Carolina St.3.1
WagnerSt. Francis PA6.0
Weber St.Idaho St.6.0
West VirginiaKansas-1.4
Western CarolinaMercer-0.6
Western IllinoisDenver1.6
William & MaryHofstra-6.5
WoffordThe Citadel9.0
WyomingSan Diego St-7.7
YaleHarvard10.6
Youngstown St.IUPUI23.0

October 27, 2022

PiRate Picks — October 27, 2022

Due to overwhelming new scheduling issues, this feature is truncated this week.

Selection #1: 3, team 10-point Teaser (-130)

Miami (O) + 1 1/2 vs. Akron

Penn St. + 25 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

Virginia + 11 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla)

Selection #2: Money Line Parlay @ +169.53

South Carolina over Missouri

SMU over Tulsa

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay @ +166.75

North Carolina over Pittsburgh

Wake Forest over Louisville

September 8, 2022

PiRate Picks For September 9-10, 2022

Last week, the most important part of our PiRate Picks publication was telling you that a broken clock is still correct twice a day. Please remember this, because we have experienced our broken clock accuracy up front this year. For the second week in a row, our selections went 3-0 to give us a 6-0 record to start the season. We know there are about 150-200 new visitors to this site since the 2021-22 College Football National Championship. Get this and get it good–we are not svengali’s. We are not Billy Walters. We aren’t even Brent Musberger and his incredible cast of handicappers. What are we? Really lucky and not much more than that.

Every week, we preface our selections by urging (begging) you not to wager real currency on the selections you read on this site. We know that there are a considerable number of professional speculators in the Nevada gold mines. We don’t have to tell you what to do with your occupation. It’s Joe Tackletrap in Wichita Falls, Texas, who makes $40,000 a year working himself silly that can ill afford to lose $500 that we have concerns about losing $500 because he wagered $100 each on five selections and lost them all, as he saw his mortgage payment money taken away.

Last week, we casually mentioned that there were some people in Nevada that we had information that they were following this site. Wow! We heard from six different people, two of whom represent a consortium of others, telling us they follow this site. And, they were not all from Las Vegas. We have to give some love to the biggest little city in America–Reno. There’s somebody there that sent us a little note.

For one paragraph, let’s pretend that we really did speculate these first two weeks of the football season, wagering $100 ($110) on margins and totals and $100 on the money line parlay. With the 6-0 record, including a parlay that paid back $241.77, our pretend starting bank account of $1,000 would now be worth $1,641.77. Making a 64% profit in two weeks in real life would quickly lead us to cash out and play no more games. That would be our Holiday Fund for this year.

What are the chances that our picks will be perfect again this week? The prior best first three week start we have ever had was a 9-3-1 start to the 2008 season. In most years, September is our worst month, with a big turnaround in October. Thus, we still do not have much confidence in our September picks. It’s merely the law of averages giving us a positive outlier.

Now that we have adequately warned you, we present our picks for this week. We are going with five selections.

Selection #1: Missouri and Kansas State UNDER 56 1/2

Our belief here is that the Wildcats will play a bit conservatively in the first half trying to keep the ball away from the Tiger offense, as Coach Chris Kleiman is a defense first leader. Missouri scored 52 points against a weak Louisiana Tech defense, and our belief is that the totals line might be a tad too high due to this. KSU’s defense pitched a shutout over FCS South Dakota. The Coyotes are not the top team in the Mount Rushmore state, but their offense is consistent. We see this game as a 28-20 win for the Wildcats. That gives us an extra touchdown to be wrong and still be right.

Selection #2: Iowa and Iowa State OVER 39 1/2

Iowa failed to reach the end zone against South Dakota State, winning 7-3 on a field goal and two safeties. The public looked at a Big Ten team’s offense failing to score on an FCS opponent and didn’t realize two important factors. First, South Dakota State is probably better than 60-75 FBS teams. Second, a college football team improves the most during a season in the practices between game one and game two. You can bet that this week in Iowa City, the offensive units in Hawkeye Land have had just about enough of hearing how lame they were in the opener. Over in Ames, Iowa State’s offense is far superior to its defense. Giving up 10 points to SEMO is nothing like Iowa’s holding SDSU to 3. SEMO is a mediocre Ohio Valley Conference team. Iowa will unleash its offense this week and top 20 points. Our hope is that Iowa State will respond in kind and make this a 24-21 game, topping 39 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Florida and Kentucky OVER 52 1/2

Florida came through for us last week, winning as an underdog when we believed the wrong team was favored. Kentucky overcame a slow start and eventually slaughtered a decent but not spectacular Miami of Ohio team. We believe that the Florida team that almost beat Alabama in 2021 before the team quit on former coach Dan Mullen has returned. If they could score 29 on Alabama last year and 29 on a tough Utah defense in week one, the Gators should put the chomp on Kentucky’s defense for more than 35 points. Can Kentucky’s offense produce 17 points or more? We think they Wildcats will top 20 points, and thus we believe the total in this game will top 56.

Selection #4: Arizona +11 1/2 vs. Mississippi State

This game is a tad different from how we normally play home underdogs. We tend to like our home dogs to get 1 to 7 points. We are making an exception here because it is our belief that few too people saw how the Wildcats went to San Diego State on the Christening of their new stadium and spoiled the party for the home team. We have been keeping our eyes on Coach Jedd Fisch since his arrival in Tucson. It is our beliefe that ‘Zona may have found their football equivalent of Lute Olson. His pedigree is about as incredible as a long-time assistant coach can own. Going up against a Mike Leach-coached team, this late night desert dogfight is going to give us reason to brew an evening pot of coffee. This could be the most entertaining game of Week Two, and we expect the home team to be in it for the entire 60 minutes. What’s great about this selection is that the superior SEC is having to play at the Pac-12 opponent’s home field rather than watch the Pac-12 team make the 2,000+ mile trip to the Southeast. Mississippi State could win this game 31-21, 34-24, 38-28, 35-24, 38-27 and still not cover. We tend to believe that this game will be a 3 to 7 point game in either direction.

Selection #5: Money Line Parlay at +172.97

Central Florida over Louisville

Arkansas over South Carolina

Florida over Kentucky

Louisville looked terrible in a blowout loss at Syracuse and did not look ready to play. Coach Scott Satterfield is sitting on a scorching hot seat, as he has had UL detractors since his hiring. At the same time, Gus Malzahn has quickly become a favored coach in Orlando, and Central Florida looks like a real contender for the American Athletic Conference Championship. In addition, UCF has had this game circled on their schedule and calendar. UL won this game on a pick six last year. The Cardinals are headed to an ambush in Orlando.

The Arkansas-South Carolina game should be quite interesting as two very good SEC teams face off in Fayetteville. We were a bit concerned with Spencer Rattler’s performance against Georgia State, as it was a little too similar to the performances he turned in at Oklahoma, which cost him his starting spot. Arkansas has a much better pass rush and secondary than Georgia State, and their offense at times pushed Cincinnati’s defense around. We see Pig Sooey winning by 10-14 points if not more.

Kentucky has defeated Florida twice in four years, after going mutiple decades without a win over the Gators. Billy Napier has quickly become a favorite in the Swamp almost on par with Steve Spurrier. He probably is the most like former Gator coaches Ray Graves and Doug Dickey than Spurrier or any coaches since. The Gators will be prepared and ready to play every week. Napier is part of both the Nick Saben and Dabo Swinney coaching trees. He knows how to run a program, and his year at Louisiana proved it. Kentucky and coach Mark Stoops are not exactly chopped liver. The Wildcats have a potent team with an NFL prospect under center. Will Levis could be a top three pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kentucky could be the second best team in the SEC East, but they could be the third or fourth best too. We believe that the Gators will come into this game not resting on their laurels after pulling off the biggest win of Week One. Napier won’t let them get swollen heads. We’re going with Florida in a thriller, and we see the Gators winning 38-28.

February 20, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
ButlerProvidence-3.7
Wichita St.Houston-8.3
WisconsinMichigan1.8
MaineNJIT-3.0
DetroitWright St.0.6
IonaFairfield11.2
CincinnatiTemple7.4
Central FloridaEast Carolina10.1
MilwaukeePurdue Fort Wayne-2.8
Northern IowaMissouri St.-1.4
MaristQuinnipiac6.6
SienaSaint Peter’s-2.4
ManhattanRider3.0
FordhamGeorge Mason-3.2
SMUMemphis-0.1
CreightonMarquette0.2
OaklandNorthern Kentucky6.9
Green BayCleveland St.-8.4
San Jose St.New Mexico-6.0
HartfordStony Brook0.5
Loyola (MD)Lehigh5.0
PurdueRutgers12.6
BellarmineJacksonville St.0.8
USCWashington St.5.0
MissouriMississippi St.-5.9

November 17, 2021

PiRate Picks–November 17-20

Last week, we had a lot of difficulty isolating potential Money Line parlays where the numbers and our method meshed. In the end, we could only issue three selection parlays. So, guess what happened? We won big! How big? How about a Return on Investment of 96.8%? Yes, we almost doubled our imaginary weekly investment, and that ballooned our imaginary profit for the year to 10.63%. With more than $500 in imaginary profit to play with, we are loosening the reins a bit this week, because the third week in November historically has been the week with major upsets of teams thinking they have sure wins in the bag prior to playing their penultimate rival the following week. It isn’t exact as much as it used to be; USC and UCLA are playing this week, and both rivals have additional games. Some of the games we are choosing as big upsets do not necessarily fit this category, but in this case, Game 12 for these teams may be even more important than playing an arch-rival. We will explain each pick separately this week to show you why.

One of the weekly questions we receive at our email is “where do you get those payout odds?” First of all, it’s amazing how many of you email us when we don’t give out the email address. Sure, it can be found elsewhere, but to go to that much trouble to find it actually means a lot to us, and because of that, we try to answer every one of them without using a form response.

Here’s how we do it. We bookmark almost 2 dozen sports books, which include Las Vegas, Off shore, and those now legal in the various states that legalized sports betting and forced every radio and TV station to carry 30-40 ads per day, making it like it is election season 24/7/365. From these 2 dozen books, we then note which specific book has the best odds on each college football game. Contrary to what most people might do, where they look for the game and then wager due to their thought on the outcome, we look at the number and then wager based on the advantage we believe we gain by the number being off by a 5% or more. For example, if State U is listed at -225 vs. Tech, and we believe the Money Line should be -240, and there are 15 other books with the game between -240 and -250, we consider that a 6.25% advantage for us. Anything over 5% presents a possible choice.

Next, we then begin to combine these games into parlays that return a minimum of +120 odds. We rarely play a parlay at +120. We are usually more interested in parlays of +150 or better, where winning the parlay 30-40% of the time will produce a net profit. Of course, the key is that our own inside data must present the 5% or better advantage, not just one book over the other books.

Another question we receive often is, “which book has the best money line odds?” We cannot answer that question, because it changes from week to week. Just about every parlay we select in a given week comes from a different book than every other parlay for that week. This week, we are going with six different selections, using four different books. If you want to know which single book would be the best one and only book where you choose to open an account, we are not qualified to give you that answer, because the answer would change from week to week.

Let’s get started with this week’s selections.

Odds:+270
Must WinOpponent
MissouriFlorida

Dan Mullen has lost the locker room. After firing multiple coaches, the Gators’s defense quit on their coach, while at the same time, the new defensive coordinator was not ready against weak FCS Samford. Missouri has an offense capable of scoring 50 points against this Gator defense. The Tigers and Gators have some bad blood, and the head coaches even displayed animous last year. Both teams are now playing for a minor bowl game. Florida’s players could care less about a possible Birmingham or Gasparilla Bowl bid. Missouri’s players realize this is a good step forward for the future. At +270 and playing at home in a cold Columbia, Missouri, climate, where the temperature will be in the low 50’s with a wind chill in the 40’s, everything is in Missouri’s favor to pull off the upset and becoming bowl eligible.

Odds:+160
Must WinOpponent
Old DominionMiddle Tennessee

This one does not fit the upset pattern listed above. It is a different theory entirely. Old Dominion head coach Ricky Rahne is accomplishing incredible things in 2021. ODU was one of the teams that did not play football in 2020. Their roster was decimated with just 7 of their starting 22 players from 2019 suiting up this year. The Monarchs looked more like Connecticut and Massachusetts when the season commenced in September. After a 1-6 start with the win over FCS Hampton, ODU looked like a potential 1-11 team. However, Rahne and his staff kept the team’s confidence level high and made adjustments on both sides of the ball, and the Monarchs have won three consecutive C-USA games to put themselves into contention to win out and become bowl eligible. Looking at just the last three weeks, ODU clearly looks superior to Middle Tennessee, and at +160, we’re willing to risk $100 in imaginary bucks that they will win their fourth game in a row and then beat Charlotte next week to become a bowl team.

Odds:+360
Must WinOpponent
SMUCincinnati

We couldn’t resist this one. Cincinnati has been sneaking by with 20 minutes of good football per game since winning at Notre Dame. That sufficed in narrow wins over weak Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, and South Florida teams. SMU can stake themselves to a three touchdown lead if the Bearcats don’t play a first 30 minutes like they did against the Irish. It is our belief that Cincinnati will lose a game before the end of the regular season, and they will have to beat SMU, East Carolina, and most likely Houston to get to 13-0. Playing like they have since Mid-October, we don’t see a path to 13-0. With the odds this high and with SMU capable of outscoring the Bearcats, we are willing to take a little more risk calling for an outright upset.

Odds:+159.65
Must WinOpponent
Northern IllinoisBuffalo
HoustonMemphis

Normally, we release this feature late on Wednesday or on Thursday morning. We had to move the release up to Wednesday at Midday because of the Northern Illinois-Buffalo game that plays tonight. The Huskies generated a big difference in the money line in our belief. We believe NIU should be in excess of -250 against the Bulls, so this became an automatic play. Combining NIU with Houston was done because this game had the best odds with the same book that had the best odds for NIU, and it moved the parlay to greater than +150. We think Houston might actually be the best G5 team at this point.

Odds:+303.09
Must WinOpponent
East CarolinaNavy
ClemsonWake Forest
West VirginiaTexas

The +303.09 payout odds on this game is the perfect example of finding better numbers. If we played this same parlay at the same book from the previous parlay, the odds would have been around +275. That’s a difference of more than 9%, and that’s where winning edges come from.

All three of these games feature small favorites playing teams with specific liabilities that can be exploited by the favorite. East Carolina can exploit Navy’s weak pass defense while hiding a vulnerable pass defense that Navy cannot exploit. Clemson’s defense is strong enough to limit Wake Forest to 24-28 points, and the Demon Deacon defense gives up 30 points to opponents before kickoff. Even the mediocre CU offense will score 31 points against WFU. West Virginia playing at home in November is a tough out. Texas is a dying rose and without Bijan Robinson, we are not sure that the Longhorns could win on the road against Marshall at this point.

Odds:+235
Must WinOpponent
ColoradoWashington

Washington fired coach Jimmy Lake this week after losing to Arizona State. They play rival Washington State next week. The Huskies are just not talented overall, and their 4-6 record is well-deserved. Having to play on the road with little to no depth and at high altitude, we don’t expect UW to have their A-game this week. Colorado is 3-7 with a road game against Utah next week. This is senior day, and CU’s players know in the back of their heads that this is their chance for one more victory. This has the look of a 20-17 game either way, and at +235, we will take the home underdog to come out on top.

Remember that the PiRates never wager real money on these games, and we highly suggest you do not either. At this time of year, you need all the extra cash you can get, and losing a couple hundred of those greenbacks because of what you have read here is so not in the holiday spirit.

September 30, 2021

PiRate Picks–September 30-October 4, 2021

This edition will be short this week due to time constraints, but it is chock full of college money line parlays, as we perceive some excellent value on the college side and not on the NFL side. We even include a rare, 4-team parlay at +372.50. Remember, we never wager real money on our selections and recommend you do the same. Use this feature only for entertainment purposes or supplemental research.

Date:

September 30-October 4

1. Odds:+173.19
Must WinOpponent
Notre DameCincinnati
Michigan St.Western Kentucky


2. Odds:+219.78
Must WinOpponent
PurdueMinnesota
OregonStanford
ArmyBall St.


3. Odds:+220.45
Must WinOpponent
MissouriTennessee
USCColorado
West VirginiaTexas Tech


4. Odds:+372.50
Must WinOpponent
TexasTCU
Wake ForestLouisville
South CarolinaTroy
Oklahoma St.Baylor
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