PiRate Ratings Picks For August 29-September 2, 2019

Last week, the PiRate Ratings did not make any selections on the two FBS games on the schedule, but our experimental Davey19 system made its first ever pick, and it chose a good one.  The computer program chose Hawaii at +11 against Arizona, and UH not only covered the spread, they won the game outright.

So, entering official week 1 of the college season, the PiRate Ratings stay at $0, while the Davey19 program sits at +$100.

With no NFL games for another weekend, we will jump into the water and stay in the shallow end of the betting pool this week with a minimum of plays.

PiRate Ratings Picks

#1: Money Line Parlay @ +189

SMU over Arkansas St.

South Carolina over North Carolina

 

#2: Money Line Parlay @ +146

Utah over BYU

Purdue over Nevada

Colorado over Colorado St.

Rutgers over UMass

 

#3: Money Line Parlay @ +182

Pittsburgh over Virginia

N. Carolina St. over East Carolina

Missouri over Wyoming

 

#4: 13-Point Teaser @ 10-14

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Rutgers	U Mass	28.5	U Mass
Colorado	Colorado St.	0.5	Colorado
Virginia Tech	Boston College	18.5	Boston College
Florida St.	Boise St.	17.5	Boise St.

 

Davey19 Selections

Straight Selections Against the Spread

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Virginia Tech	Boston College	5.5	Boston College
Florida St.	Boise St.	5.5	Boise St.
Southern Cal	Fresno St.	13.5	Fresno St.

 

10-Point Teaser @10-12

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Army	Rice	11.5	Army
Illinois	Akron	28	Akron
N. Carolina St.	East Carolina	6.5	North Carolina St.

 

10-Point Teaser @10-12

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Alabama	Duke	44.5	Duke
Michigan	Middle Tennessee	45	Middle Tennessee
Georgia	Vanderbilt	30.5	Vanderbilt

 

 

 

Final Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Pardon our brevity today, but we do have other tasks at hands on the PiRate ship.  This is our final election eve analytical look at the 2018 Mid-term Election races.

U.S. Senate

We were tempted to make one slight change today based on the final reliable polling coming from a couple of honest pollsters.  However, in these states, Early Voting has already seen large percentages of voters deciding.  We have to use the polls at the time of Early Voting, so we did not move the needle at all.

For three weeks, we have been split between 53-47 and 54-46 in favor of the Republicans in the Senate.  Our Over/Under spread would be 53 1/2.

U.S. House of Representatives

This could take up hours more than we have to explain, and if you are reading this 14 hours before the polls open on the East Coast, you only have time for a couple of paragraphs.

Based on our models of handicapping the polls based on their recent biases from the previous election, we believe that the Democrats are assured of picking up 13 seats as their floor and 34 seats as their ceiling.  They currently own 193 seats, so this bumps their minimum in the next Congress to 206 and a maximum of 227.  It takes 218 to get a majority.

We believe that there are about 26 seats remaining that are true tossup races.  Of the 26 tossups, the Democrats need to win 12 of the races to gain control.  If you factor in that the Democrats polled a little better three weeks ago when some states commenced with early voting, we tend to tilt the needle of toss-up races in their favor.  If we had to wager on an over/under number for the number of Democrats in the next Congress, we’d place that number at 219.5, since our data shows the Democrats taking control of the House by a margin of 219 to 216 or 220 to 215.

Gubernatorial Races

We must admit that we did not perform any additional data mining on the governor’s races.  We will stick with our over/under number of 26.5 in favor of the Republicans, as our data is split between 26-24 and 27-23 in favor of the GOP.

 

Our plea with our incredible brothers and sisters of the greatest nation in the world.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, please act like a good and decent human being and accept the results without resulting to violence.  Our nation received the most incredible gift from our Founding Fathers.

There is a fantastic quote attributable to Benjamin Franklin in 1787.  When Franklin was leaving Independence Hall following long hours of discussion at the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Franklin as he left the hall whether our new nation would be a Republic or a Monarchy.

Franklin’s genius reply was, “A Republic if you can keep it.”

My fellow friends and countrymen, we are doing our worst not to keep it.  I lived through the 1968 through 1972 election cycle.  I never believed the nation could become more divided then than ever again in my lifetime.  We are approaching this four year black eye.  Let’s stop it before it can surpass those four years.

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

The PiRate Ratings consist of a group of mathematical nerds that love to look at ratings of all types.  Sports ratings dominate about 95% of what we publish, but we are big-time followers of the political scene, as our founder was once a journalist and has worked as an official in past elections.

We do not have our own polling data.  However, we handicap other polls based on past accuracy and whether the polls show bias one way or another.  Then, we go use the various dates of each handicapped poll and use linear regression analysis to come up with a prediction.

This takes a lot of time to search for the polls we believe are the most accurate.  Very few were all that accurate in 2016, but there were some major polling efforts that showed President Trump leading the electoral vote count in the final days before the election.

Today, we look at the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and the Gubernatorial Races.  The result is a split decision for 2019.

The United States Senate

Safe Seats

21 of the 35 seats are considered safe, where the candidate in the lead today has a greater than 95% chance of winning in November.

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)
Feinstein is like a Supreme Court Justice in the Golden State. She will hold this seat for life, or until she retires. This easily stays a safe seat for the Democrats.

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)
Connecticut has become much bluer in the last 15 years, and Murphy will win this seat with token opposition to retain it for the Democrats.

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)
Carper is almost as safe as if he were running unopposed. This seat is retained by the Democrats.

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)
The same thing about Carper applies here. Hirano cruises to an easy victory to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats, so this seat in essence is retained by the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)
Cardin wins a third term in a safe race to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Her chances of becoming the next President are most likely gone now, but Warren should retain this seat for the Democrats by a healthy margin.

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)
This seat remains Democrat with a safe win for Stabenow.

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Klobuchar should win re-election by a landslide of more than 20% to retain this seat for the Democrats

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D)
This race was never all that close, and Smith has maintained a double-digit lead to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)
Wicker may score the largest GOP landslide victory in the 2018 elections to retain this seat for the Republicans

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)
Fischer has a large lead and will win a second term in the Cornhusker State and retain this seat for the Republicans.

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)
Like Fischer, Heinrich easily wins re-election to a second term and retains this seat for the Democrats

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
This could be the largest landslide victory for the party of Jefferson and Jackson. Gillibrand will then have to address the rumors about whether or not she will launch a Presidentail campaign for the 2020 election. The Democrats retain this seat.

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)
This race was never close, and the Democrats will easily retain it in a landslide.

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
It’s a third term for Whitehouse, and the Democrats retain this seat.

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)
The former GOP Presidential candidate will win by 30+% to retain this seat for the Republicans.

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats and will win re-election by a large landslide. His announcement for the 2020 Presidential race should come sometime in the Spring or early Summer of 2019.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)
The former Vice-presidential candidate and running mate for Hillary Clinton might become a Presidential contender in 2020, but for now, he retains this seat for the Democrats.

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)
Cantwell wins for the fourth time and could stay in this seat for two or three more terms. She won by less than 1% in 2000, by 17% in 2006, and by 20+% in 2012, and she could win by 20+% again this time. The Democrats keep this seat.

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)
Barrasso should win this race by 50%, to safely retain this seat for the Republicans.

 

Contested Seats

Arizona
Martha McSally (R) 52.5
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47.5
Arizona stays Republican after negative ads against Sinema, using her own voice, are quite effective.

Florida
Bill Nelson (D) 50.3
Rick Scott (R) 49.7
Florida race is too close to call at this point, but if the election were today, Nelson would retain this seat for the Democrats.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D) 48.2
Mike Braun (R) 47.4
Lucy Brenton (L) 4.4
This race is trending toward Donnelly in the most recent polls, and the Democrats look like they will retain this seat unless something drastic changes the race in the final two weeks.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 37.2
Mike Espy (D) 34.7
Chris McDaniel (R) 24.0
Toby Bartee (D) 4.1
It’s hard to see how Mississippi would flip, but Espy is probably the Democrats’ best possible candidate in the Magnolia State. This race is too close to call, but if the general election were held today, Hyde-Smith would win to keep this seat Republican.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R) 51.5
Claire McCaskill (D) 48.5
This race now looks like it is trending to Hawley after Project Veritas releases damaging evidence in McCaskill’s own words on hiding her actual stance on gun control with the quote that “People just can’t know that.” This state will flip from Democrat to Republican.

Montana
Jon Tester (D) 51.1
Matt Rosendale (R) 48.9
Tester holds on to a narrow lead, but the President has been in Big Sky Country four times in this election cycle, and this race has moved from leaning Democrat to narrowly Democrat. It is too close to call officially, but if the election were today, Tester would squeak by with re-election and keep this seat Democrat.

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D) 53.8
Bob Hugin (R) 46.2
This seat is close to safe for a Menendez re-election, and the Democrats retain it.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R) 53.7
Jacky Rosen (D) 46.3
This race was closer earlier in the campaign cycle, but Heller has a somewhat comfortable lead and should retain this seat for the Republicans.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R) 55.9
Heidi Heitkamp (D) 44.1
This seat is almost assured of flipping from Democrat to Republican. Heitkamp had the numbers working against her in a red state that went for Trump.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D) 57.6
Lou Barletta (R) 42.4
This race has opened up by a healthy enough margin to guarantee it for Casey and retain the seat for the Democrats.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R) 53.8
Phil Bredesen (D) 46.2
In another case where Project Veritas produced damning evidence that Bredesen had lied about his support for Justice Kavanaugh, this race has moved by several points in favor of Blackburn. It is not decided yet, as Tennessee has never elected a female to statewide office, and in past years, females that held the lead in polls lost on election day. It is a tossup state, but if the election were held today, the Republicans would narrowly hold onto this seat.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R) 54.1
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45.9
In a state where gun ownership is above the national average, O’Rourke’s statement that Texas should lead the nation conversation for gun control can be considered a gaffe that will cost him a couple of points and make this race close to safe for Cruz to win re-election and retain this seat for the Republicans.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D) 54.6
Patrick Morrisey (R) 45.4
Joe Manchin showed his intelligence in a very red state when he voted for Justice Kavanaugh. He will win by close to double digits and retain this seat for the Democrats. Manchin considered retiring, and he later would not make a comment on the possibility of switching parties. Manchin has tried to encourage other Democrats to work with the President, as in his opinion this is how his party can add to its numbers. His words are falling on deaf ears.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D) 54.7
Leah Vukmir (R) 45.3
Baldwin has excellent organization in the Badger State, and she should win this race without much concern that the GOP can sneak up on election day like the state did for the President. The Democrats retain this seat.

 

The 65 Senators not up for re-election
Republicans 42
Democrats 23

There are 35 seats up for grabs this year due to two special elections.
Safe for Democrats 21
Safe for Republicans 5

Subtotal
Republicans 47
Democrats 44

*** Nine states will decide the balance of power in the US Senate. ***
Three lean to the Democrats today
Florida
Indiana
Montana

Six lean to the Republicans today
Arizona
Mississippi Special Election
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Tennessee

The current prediction is:
Republicans 53
Democrats 47

 

The United States House of Representatives

Currently
Republicans 235
Democrats 193

2018 Safe seats (411)
Democrats 212
Republicans 199

2018 Contested Seats (27)

Forecasting the 27 races individually is more than our tiny group can handle.  We have used our regression analysis to look at net gains and net losses in the polls.  It is not as accurate as looking at each race individually, but we do prefer to get at least 4 hours of sleep a night.

If the election were held today
Democrats 222
Republicans 216

 

Gubernatorial Races if the election were held today
Republicans 27
Democrats 23

 

So, who will be the big winner in November?  It’s hard to say, but if we do end up with a split decision, the biggest winners may be all the political bloggers and online political sites that will have a field day cramming their opinions down the country’s throats.

The only political commentary we will make is this: Many people fail to understand that the elected official that most affects his or her life is the councilman or alderman in his or her neighborhood.  Yet, history shows that these elections receive the lowest turnout of all races.

Please vote in your local elections wherever you live and for whomever you believe will best represent your views and opinions and who best will respond to any redresses you might have.  In most cases, you can talk personally with your councilman or alderman.  Most of us can never speak directly with any other elected official, other than one or two seconds in a handshake line during an election cycle.

We live in interesting times!

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 16-18, 2017

After a winning week with a modest 35% return on our investment, the PiRate Rating Money Line Parlays are just a fraction below break even for the season.  We are submitting three selections this week, with the odds being a tad lower in hopes that at least two of these three will win and put us back in the black for the season.  There are numerous trap games this week, so we chose to lay off about 35 of these games that could have been used to produce parlays in the +180 to +235 range.  The problem is that in just about every case, we were split on one of the games in the possible parlay.  For instance, the Western Kentucky-Middle Tennessee game found us divided at 3 to 3.  Either way, we could have used this parlay to produce a nice fat odds in our favor, but none of us are steadfast in our belief in the team we believe will win.  You can put a ditto on Wake Forest and North Carolina St.  We were 3-3 on that game too.

What you do receive this week are three parlays in which we were 6-0 on all but one game, and 5-1 on the other (NW-Duke).

Here are our 3 selections for the week.  REMEMBER: we issue these selections only for entertainment purposes and NEVER wager real currency on these picks.  We advise you follow our lead.  If you are a professional “player” and will play regardless, please use these selections as only one source for your investing ideas.

#1 @ +136
Must Win	Must Lose
Georgia Tech	Duke
West Virginia	Texas
********************	********************
#2 @ +165
Must Win	Must Lose
Northwestern	Minnesota
South Alabama	Georgia Southern
Missouri	Vanderbilt
********************	********************
#3 @ +122
Must Win	Must Lose
Utah St.	Hawaii
Old Dominion	Rice
Idaho	Coastal Carolina

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 9-11, 2017

The Captain has regained control of the helm, and he is steering the PiRate ship once again.  Actually, the lasses suffered a loss last week, and they were too shy to come up with any parlays this week.  The Captain on short notice was only able to create two parlays, as he believes this may be a week to look at other wagering philosophies with several key games being played.

If you are new to this site, this weekly feature picks money line parlays that go off at better than +120 odds.  As a general rule, we look for 3-game parlays, but in some cases (like today), we will combine four or more games, and in fact, we once issued a 7-game parlay at +225 odds and won the wager.

Here are this week’s two parlay selections.  As always, consider this when deciding how you will make use of this publication: No PiRate booty has been jeopardized in the making of this feature.  We only play with pretend currency when selecting our parlays.

#1 @ +170
Must Win	Must Lose
Northwestern	Purdue
South Carolina	Florida
Southern Miss.	Rice

#2 @ +157
Must Win	Must Lose
Pittsburgh	North Carolina
Florida Int’l.	Old Dominion
Missouri	Tennessee
Middle Tenn.	Charlotte

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 2-6, 2017

The PiRate Captain had to send up the white flag after his lasses staged a successful mutiny two weeks ago. Much to his chagrin and ego, the ladies proceeded to come up with back-to-back weeks of pillaging of the Vegas vessels.

Last week, they brought in enough booty to send the SS Fortune into the black for the season. They proceeded to return a profit on the investment of a whopping 147%, missing out on going a perfect 4 for 4 by one play in overtime in the Appy State-U Mass game.  For the season, the PiRate Account is now in the black with a very modest 1% ROI.

The Captain will note that in the previous two seasons, the period from the last of October to the first of December followed the same MO–the selection results went from red numbers to black numbers and clinched a profit for the overall seasons.
Now, the lasses are lobbying to change the name of the PiRate ship to Queen Anne’s Revenge. The Captain is worried that five swollen heads on the lovely ladies could lead to a return of some booty to the Nevada books, but the ladies are overly confident that they have zeroed in using their superior female intuition.

Once again, the ladies picked the teams they thought had the best chance of winning outright but at the same time went off as small favorites, total tossups, or even slight underdogs. The Captain merely served as their accountant, putting together the best possible parlays as far as favorable odds go, thanks to his knowing which of the 2 dozen reputable books had the best overall odds.

 
The PiRate lasses selected four money line parlays, each going off at better than +120 odds, which is the unwritten rule for this weekly feature. Actually, there are just three parlays this week, as the fourth selection is a single game where the ladies believe the underdog should be favored by at least a touchdown.

Enjoy the picks, but remember, neither the ladies nor the Captain ever wager real money on the outcomes of these games. The goal here is to have fun with math.

#1 @ +155
Must Win	Must Lose
North Texas	Louisiana Tech

#2 @ +144
Must Win	Must Lose
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern
Kentucky	Ole Miss

#3 @ +167
Must Win	Must Lose
Navy	Temple
Northwestern	Nebraska

#4 @ +204
Must Win	Must Lose
Missouri	Florida
UAB	Rice
Tulane	Cincinnati

 

 

2017 Southeastern Conference Preview

The old adage goes that a southern gentleman’s three favorite professional sports leagues are, the NFC, the AFC, and the SEC.  Others see SEC football as a religion, and whoever is the head coach at Alabama, as the reigning Moses with direct communication to the Great Bear in the Sky.

For those that have not followed college football more than a few years, this league has been around for almost 85 years, but even before then, the league members were “killing it” on the gridiron.  As far back as 1904, the Crimson Tide played excellent footbal, and under Hall of Fame Coach Wallace Wade, the 1925 Alabama football team won the Southern Conference, the Rose Bowl, and finished 10-0 as the nation’s best team.

What is the top annual college football award? Easy: it’s the Heisman Trophy, named for John Heisman.  Heisman coached at two different schools that would become charter members of the SEC–Georgia Tech and Auburn.

General Robert Neyland led Tennessee from 1926 to 1952 with a couple of breaks to serve in the military.  Neyland was considered the best defensive coach in the history of the game, and one of his Volunteer teams shut out every opponent on the schedule.  Even at what is considered the bottom feeder programs of the league, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, both schools have pasts where they were not only great, they were the best in the nation.  Bear Bryant guided the 1950 Wildcats to an 11-1 season and major upset victory over number one Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl.  Dan McGugin led the Commodores from 1904 to 1934, finishing with a record of 197-55-19 and winning multiple national championships at Vandy (retroactively according to recognized computer polls).  So, when you see the 14 SEC teams fighting it out week after week this year and think that they all of a sudden became the behemoths of the college football world, recall that this is not a new phenomenon.  The SEC is as storied as Major League Baseball.

2017 figures to be another great year in this league with four or five teams capable of making the Playoffs.  It is higher than an average chance that this season could see two SEC teams making the Playoffs.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason.

SEC East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Georgia	138	1,572	6
2	Florida	96	1,526	3
3	Tennessee	3	998	0
4	South Carolina	5	897	1
5	Kentucky	0	869	0
6	Vanderbilt	1	554	1
7	Missouri	0	388	0
SEC West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Alabama	225	1,683	217
2	Auburn	13	1,329	11
3	LSU	4	1,262	3
4	Arkansas	1	796	1
5	Texas A&M	0	722	0
6	Mississippi St.	0	633	0
7	Ole Miss	0	379	0

The PiRate Ratings are a tad different, but you can see there are several highly-regarded teams, as all 14 teams rate above 100.0.

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	116.3	117.6	116.4	116.8
Florida	115.3	114.6	114.6	114.8
Kentucky	111.7	110.2	111.2	111.0
Tennessee	111.4	109.6	109.5	110.2
Vanderbilt	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
S. Carolina	106.4	106.1	105.6	106.0
Missouri	104.7	101.3	103.4	103.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	133.4	128.6	132.4	131.5
Auburn	124.0	121.9	123.9	123.3
L S U	120.3	118.5	121.0	119.9
Arkansas	109.5	109.1	109.5	109.4
Ole Miss	107.6	106.2	106.0	106.6
Texas A&M	107.6	105.2	106.2	106.3
Mississippi St.	104.4	105.1	104.6	104.7
SEC Averages	113.1	111.6	112.4	112.4

And, take a look at our unscientific won-loss predictions and bowl projections.  You will notce that we believe there will be a surprise this year.

Southeastern Conference Projected Standings
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Georgia	6-2	10-3	Orange
Florida	6-2	8-4	Taxslayer
Kentucky	5-3	9-3	Outback
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	Belk
Vanderbilt	3-5	7-5	Music City
South Carolina	3-5	5-7
Missouri	1-7	5-7
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Auburn	7-1	12-1	PLAYOFFS
Alabama	7-1	11-1	PLAYOFFS
LSU	5-3	9-3	Citrus
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	Texas
Texas A&M	3-5	6-6	Liberty
Mississippi St.	2-6	6-6	Birmingham
Ole Miss	1-7	5-7
Auburn to win SEC Championship Game

What the PiRate Ratings think at the start of this season:  Yes, you see that correctly above!  We have Alabama rated number one in the nation to begin the season, but we have Auburn picked as the SEC West Champion.  The two rivals play in Auburn this year, and our preseason belief is that Alabama will enter that game 11-0, while Auburn is 10-1.  We then show Auburn winning the game to take the West Division, while Alabama finished second with an 11-1 record, probably falling to third in the playoff seeding.

Then, we show Auburn winning the SEC Championship, earning the number two playoff seed.  You will see tomorrow that we have only one team picked to go undefeated, and that will be Ohio State (or in other words the winner of the Ohio State-Penn State game).  We previously showed you that we believe USC at 10-2 will knock off 12-0 Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

We then foresee USC sneaking into the #4 seed in the Playoffs, with Ohio State the top-seed.  Do you know what would happen if the seeding goes Ohio State, Auburn, Alabama, and USC?  The rules for the playoff state that the overall number one seed must have the bowl site advantage over the number four seed.  Since the two playoff semifinal games are the Rose and Sugar Bowls, Ohio State could not possibly play USC in the Rose Bowl.  It would make for a very interesting Sugar Bowl matchup between the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions.

But, then look what the Rose Bowl would get.  How about the crazy rematch of Alabama and Auburn in the Rose Bowl?  Can you imagine the insanity of a week in the L.A. area between the fans of the two schools?  In addition, the City of Angels likes its epic productions, and this would be the Rose Bowl for the ages.  Imagine the Tournament of Roses Parade with all the crimson and white and burnt orange and navy.  Yea, Alabama versus War Eagle.  Los Angeles hasn’t seen anything like this since Cecile B. Demille last made movies–the 10 Commandments of Football become the Greatest Show on Earth!

 

Coming tomorrow: It’s here.  The college football season kicks off Saturday, and we will commence with our regular weekly format.  This is our plan for 2017.

1. A weekly college forecast with our PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for all 130 FBS teams, and our spreads for the week’s games.

2. A weekly NFL forecast with the same ratings and spreads

3. A weekly Money Line Parlay edition in which we attempt to go for a third consecutive year where we make a large return on investment (just for fun, as we do not wager actual money on games).4. Returning this year on Friday afternoons: During the last three years, we have been a little too busy to devote time to the retro-football league that we enjoyed performing.  Many of you have asked about this in this time, and we are happy to announce it is coming back.

Many of you reading this may know that Sports Illustrated and Avalon Hill put out a couple of excellent and fun tabletop football games several decades ago.  The college version was called, “Bowl Bound,” and the NFL version was called, “Paydirt.”  The games are no longer made, but many football and math lovers have continued making the teams for this game.  The codes were not that hard to crack, and actually, some of the more advanced analytics experts were able to improve on these games.  What we will use for our recreations is an advanced version of this game.  The teams have updated charts to more closely match what these teams’ results.  We must admit that the originator of these games did not have access to an Internet that did not exist.  Enough information is out there to more accurately estimate a teams’ strengths and weaknesses and then to normalize it so that an average team in 1950 and an average team in 1975 should approach a mean score of 21-21 with both teams winning 50 of 100 games.

Thus, if a team is 12 points better than average in 1950, they are as strong as a team that is 12 points better than average in 1975.

This is how it will work this year.

A. We are using 14 NFL teams from the period between 1950 and 1975, using the rules and schedule of 1965.  Kickoffs will be from the 40 yard line; the goalposts will be on the goal lines and not on the end lines (shouldn’t they be called end posts now?); there will be no 10-yard penalties.  Holding and other current 10-yard penalties will be 15-yard penalties like in the “good ole days;” there will be no overtime for regular season games.

B. We are also using the 10 AFL teams from the period between 1960 and 1975, using the rules, and the schedule from the 1968 season.

C. There will be an NFL Championship Game and AFL Championship Game and then a Super Bowl between the two champions.

Here are the 24 teams that will be used for this event.

NFL East

Cleveland 1950

Dallas 1971

NY Giants 1959

Philadelphia 1960

Pittsburgh 1975

St. Louis 1975

Washington 1972

NFL West

Baltimore 1958

Chicago 1963

Detroit 1954

Green Bay 1962

Los Angeles 1967

Minnesota 1975

San Francisco 1970

AFL East

Boston 1964

Buffalo 1964

Houston 1961

Miami 1972

NY Jets 1968

AFL West

Cincinnati 1973

Denver 1973

Kansas City 1969

Oakland 1967

San Diego 1963

The games will be played using a computer-assisted play-calling system based on the tendencies of the teams in question.  For instance, Miami will have more fullback power runs inside the tackles.  Minnesota will feature more passes with the quarterback moving out of the pocket.  The NY Jets and Oakland will feature more of a vertical passing game, while Cincinnati relies more on the precursor to the West Coast Offense.  On defense, teams like the Rams will be tough to run on and trouble for quarterbacks without strong offensive lines.

The teams will play a 14-game regular season schedule with the champions of each division only making the playoffs–no wildcard teams.

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 1-5, 2016

This just for fun weekly feature turned out to be our most widely read part of the PiRate Ratings last year, because just like a broken clock is correct twice a day, somehow our money line parlays returned 40% on investment last year. People began leaving comments at our sister site, http://www.piratings.webs.com , telling us they were using these picks to wager their hard-earned money. That disappointed us a lot, since we begged them not to do this.

This is a just for fun mathematical experiment. We have no inside information; we have no specialist in Vegas placing wagers anonymously for us like other heavy hitters. In fact, if we were to announce to any book that we would like to play our picks for real, they would bend over backwards to help us do just that. So, that should tell you not to use these picks. Just read what we have to offer. If there is some way to wager just for fun with your friends, by picking X number of teams to win outright, then maybe you can use our selections.

For those not aware of the Money Line, it is a line established to wager on who you think will win the game without having to cover a pointspread. Obviously, if Michigan plays Hawaii, you would take Michigan to win. As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friend.” In order to take Michigan to win the game outright over Hawaii, you have to give ridiculous odds to the book. To win just $100 on this proposal, you must put up $75,000! If you want to wager just $100 on Hawaii to win the game in the biggest upset in years, you would win $25,000 if it happened!

Obviously, this is an extreme outlier. Let’s look at a closer game this week. Vanderbilt hosts South Carolina tomorrow night. The current Money Line odds are listed as Vanderbilt -185 and South Carolina +165. This means that if you believe the Commodores will win, you must put up $185 to win $100 ($285, because you get your investment money back as well). If you believe South Carolina will win this game, then by wagering $100, you stand to win $165 ($265 as you will get your $100 back as well if you win) if the Gamecocks win.

A Money Line parlay allows you to combine multiple games in order to raise your total odds. The catch is that if you bet X amount of games as one parlay wager, all X teams must win. It is considered a sucker bet to play this type of exotic wager, but we are not suckers, because we bet $0 every week. We can choose and choose parlays every week, and we will not lose a penny. We hope you will not either.

Here is our plan of attack that worked rather well last year for us. We will select a host of favorites and bunch them into parlays where the odds are better than even money for us should we win the wager. For example, let’s say that you combine three favorites into one parlay wager. Team A is listed at -250. Team B is listed at -235. Team C is listed at -225. The parlay on this three-team wager would be +188, or you would put up $100 to win $188 ($288 because as you know by now, when you win, you get back your investment money as well.)

It is not easy for three teams at -250, -235, and -225 to all win in a given week. That’s the catch. It looks so easy, and there are some nice hotels in Vegas that have been built from funds donated to them by suckers that thought it looked so easy.

Okay, now that you have been warned, let’s get started with our first Money Line Parlays of the 2016 season. We are playing just two parlays this week, and by playing, we mean like it is Monopoly–it is just a fun game.

Parlay #1

This one gives us +167 odds on our $100 fantasy investment. Yep, if we win, we receive $267 from the fake book in fake Vegas.

Tulsa over San Jose St.
Wake Forest over Tulane
LSU over Wisconsin
West Virginia over Missouri

Parlay #2

This one gives us +127 odds on our $100 fantasy investment. So, if we win just one of these two parlays, it will be a profitable week.

Colorado over Colorado St.
Temple over Army
UTEP over New Mexico St.
Minnesota over Oregon St.

Okay, that’s $200 fake invested funds into two parlays. If we lose both, we are out our imaginary $200. If we win #1 and lose #2, we will have a nice profit in week one returning $267 on the $200 wagered (33.5% ROI). If we lose #1 and win #2, we will have a so-so profit in week one returning $227 on the $200 wagered (13.5% ROI). If somehow both parlays win, we will be taking a fake vacation to an imaginary mountain lodge after pulling off a return of $494 on the $200 wagered (147% ROI).

One final warning and plea–please do not wager real money on these picks. Use them for fun only. See if you can come up with your own and see for yourself how easy hard it is.

Happy football holiday weekend.

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs–Semifinals

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 received automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt received automatic bids if any finished in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaced the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we used an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then selected the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and gave them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seeded the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams received a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 faced off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

In the quarterfinal round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/28/2013-14-ncaa-football-computer-simulation-playoffs-quarterfinals/

 

South Carolina upset Florida St., Stanford defeated Michigan St., Oregon upset Auburn, and Missouri upset Alabama to make this the first time in the PiRate Simulation history that a top-3 seed did not make the semifinal round.

 

Here are your Final Four Match-ups that were simulated yesterday:

 

#4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

#6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

Game 1: #4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

 

Winner: Stanford 17  South Carolina 13

 

Stan	Team	S Car
16	FD	14
41-159	Rushing	43-112
167	Passing	121
15-27-1	Passes	13-23-2
68	Play	66
326	Yards	233
	1	2	3	4	F
Stan	0	3	7	7	17
S Car	7	3	0	3	13

 

 

Game 2: #6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

Winner: Oregon 48  Missouri 35

 

Mo	Team	Ore
21	FD	24
42-162	Rushing	52-308
257	Passing	244
19-32-2	Passes	21-32-0
74	Play	82
419	Yards	552
	1	2	3	4	F
Mo	14	7	14	0	35
Ore	10	10	14	14	48

 

Simper Bowl VII is now set. 

 

#4 Stanford vs. #10 Oregon

 

The Ducks will be trying to threepeat as Simper Bowl Champions.

 

Here are the results of the first six Simper Bowls

 

Simper Bowl I—January 2008: USC 38  Oklahoma 24

Simper Bowl II—January 2009: USC 27  Florida 23

Simper Bowl III—January 2010: Boise St. 39  TCU 37

Simper Bowl IV—January 2011: Ohio St. 27  Wisconsin 21

Simper Bowl V—January 2012: Oregon 38  Wisconsin 30

Simper Bowl VI—January 2013: Oregon 34  Alabama 24

PiRate Ratings: College Football–December 6-7, 2013

The Big Answer About The PiRate Ratings

“How can you still have Alabama at Number Two, you xoxoxo,?” says an irate Auburn fan.

 

We get this question quite a bit over the years.  Many times in the past as well as this past weekend, an Auburn beat an Alabama, yet they did not pass them in our ratings.

 

The answer to this question is simple.  We do not rank teams based on what they have done so far this season, or what is referred to as retrodictive rankings.  If we had these type of rankings, then surely the Auburns of 2013 and past years would be ahead of the Alabamas.

 

Our ratings are predictive.  We rate teams and do not rank them.  Our ratings try to predict what the next week of games will be, thus being called predictive ratings.

 

What our ratings say is that if Alabama and Auburn somehow make it to the NCAA Championship Game, we will have Alabama favored to win.

 

And, to that Auburn fan from Montgomery, here is something else for you to chew on.  It is not like we choose to place the ratings where they go.  Our system is a multiple statistic system that is about 99% mechanical and can be reproduced by anybody that has been taught the method.  The only semi-subjective part of our ratings comes in the home-field advantage, because we choose to believe that home-field advantage changes for every game.  In other words, Oklahoma receives considerably less home-field advantage this week hosting Oklahoma St. than they did when they hosted UL-Monroe the first of the season.

 

The BCS is Still BS, and the New Playoff Will Be as Well

We strongly oppose the BCS bowl system, realizing that it is more political than the party conventions every four years.

 

We suspect the four-team playoff commencing next year will also be more like a meeting of the Illinois General Assembly.

 

Who would be in the four team playoff if it began this season?  Florida St. and Ohio St. would be near locks as of now, while you figure that Alabama would still get in as well as the winner of the Missouri-Auburn game.  What about Oklahoma St.?  What more would a Northern Illinois have to do to smell a selection?

 

Why leave this choice in the hands of football politicians?  This is not the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the number 69 team gets shafted.  The teams that can win the dance are always selected or earn automatic berths.

 

If college football ever wanted to “get it right,” they would adopt a model similar to the basketball tournament.  Until then, it will be perceived as a fraud by a substantial part of the fans.

 

Here is how the PiRates would make it right:

 

1. Go to a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. Give the champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 automatic bids.

 

3. Give the champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which will replace the BCS and have mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.

 

4. Select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

 

5. Seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

 

Let’s look at what could be this year.  First, we must make a couple assumptions, but it will be easy for you the reader to adjust this if different teams win next week.

 

In our world, among the conference championship games, Florida St. beats Duke, Ohio St. beats Michigan St., Arizona St. beats Stanford, and Auburn beats Missouri.  These are not our predictions; they are just being used to make the idea easier to understand.

 

Here are the 12 teams that we would show qualifying for the Tournament.

1. AAC—Central Florida received an automatic bid by finishing at number 16.

2. ACC—Florida St. gets an automatic bid

3. Big 12—Oklahoma St. gets an automatic bid

4. Big Ten—Ohio St. gets an automatic bid

5. CUSA—Marshall does not get a bid by failing to crack the top 16

6. MAC—Northern Illinois gets an automatic bid by making the top 16

7. MWC—Fresno St. narrowly misses out and does not make the tournament

8. Pac-12—Arizona St. gets an automatic bid

9. SEC—Auburn gets an automatic bid

10. SBC—UL-Lafayette does not make the tournament

 

This means five at-large teams will be selected.  Assuming the conference championship games play out as suggested above, here are the five at-large teams.

Alabama

South Carolina

Baylor

Missouri

Stanford

 

This is how the tournament would be seeded:

1. Florida St.

2. Ohio St.

3. Auburn

4. Alabama

5. Oklahoma St.

6. South Carolina

7. Missouri

8. Stanford

9. Baylor

10. Arizona St.

11. Northern Illinois

12. Central Florida

 

The first round games would then be:

Game 1: Oklahoma St. vs. Central Florida

Game 2: South Carolina vs. Northern Illinois

Game 3: Missouri vs. Arizona St.

Game 4: Stanford vs. Baylor

 

The second round games would then be:

Game 5: Alabama vs. Game 1 winner

Game 6: Auburn vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7: Ohio St. vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8: Florida St. vs. Game 4 winner

 

The semifinal round games would then be:

Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 8 winner

Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner

 

Championship

Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular
1	Florida St.	136.9
2	Alabama	134.8
3	Ohio St.	128.2
4	Oklahoma St.	127.7
5	Stanford	127.7
6	Arizona St.	127.3
7	Oregon	125.5
8	Baylor	125.2
9	Missouri	125.2
10	L S U	123.2
11	Washington	122.2
12	Auburn	122.2
13	Michigan St.	121.6
14	U C L A	121.3
15	Wisconsin	121.0
16	South Carolina	120.8
17	Clemson	120.6
18	Texas A&M	119.1
19	Ole Miss	117.4
20	Texas	117.1
21	Oklahoma	117.0
22	Georgia	117.0
23	U S C	116.6
24	Arizona	114.1
25	Notre Dame	113.9
26	Oregon St.	113.5
27	Louisville	113.2
28	Kansas St.	112.9
29	Michigan	112.1
30	B Y U	111.6
31	Georgia Tech	111.0
32	Miami	110.5
33	Iowa	109.5
34	North Carolina	108.8
35	Nebraska	108.7
36	Cincinnati	108.5
37	Bowling Green	108.1
38	Utah	108.1
39	Vanderbilt	107.9
40	Mississippi St.	107.9
41	Duke	107.4
42	Penn St.	107.4
43	Florida	107.4
44	T C U	107.3
45	Minnesota	106.8
46	Virginia Tech	106.7
47	Northwestern	106.7
48	Texas Tech	106.3
49	East Carolina	105.9
50	Utah St.	105.8
51	Washington St.	105.8
52	Central Florida	105.7
53	Fresno St.	105.6
54	Northern Illinois	105.1
55	Houston	104.6
56	Marshall	104.2
57	Boise St.	103.9
58	Tennessee	102.8
59	Ball St.	101.7
60	Boston College	101.5
61	Indiana	101.5
62	Pittsburgh	100.5
63	West Virginia	99.7
64	Buffalo	99.7
65	North Texas	99.5
66	Syracuse	99.0
67	Colorado St.	98.9
68	Arkansas	98.6
69	Wake Forest	98.5
70	Maryland	98.0
71	Toledo	98.0
72	San Jose St.	98.0
73	Navy	97.1
74	Illinois	96.8
75	Rice	96.2
76	Kentucky	95.7
77	Iowa St.	95.5
78	S M U	93.5
79	Florida Atlantic	93.4
80	U T S A	93.2
81	San Diego St.	92.7
82	Western Kentucky	92.2
83	Colorado	92.1
84	Louisiana–Lafayette	92.1
85	U N L V	91.2
86	Kansas	90.9
87	Rutgers	90.7
88	Tulane	90.5
89	Arkansas St.	90.5
90	Temple	90.2
91	Middle Tennessee	89.9
92	Memphis	89.8
93	Virginia	89.6
94	Kent St.	89.6
95	North Carolina St.	89.2
96	California	88.2
97	South Alabama	88.0
98	South Florida	87.5
99	Nevada	87.0
100	Purdue	86.5
101	Connecticut	86.3
102	Ohio	86.0
103	Central Michigan	85.9
104	Louisiana–Monroe	85.3
105	Wyoming	84.9
106	Akron	84.5
107	Tulsa	84.1
108	Troy	83.6
109	Hawaii	83.5
110	Army	81.8
111	New Mexico	79.5
112	Texas St.	79.1
113	Louisiana Tech	78.0
114	Western Michigan	76.8
115	U A B	75.3
116	Air Force	74.4
117	U T E P	74.0
118	New Mexico St.	70.5
119	Massachusetts	68.7
120	Southern Miss.	68.0
121	Georgia St.	67.7
122	Miami (O)	67.5
123	Idaho	67.4
124	Eastern Michigan	67.2
125	Florida Int’l	66.4

 

PiRate Mean
1	Florida St.	140.4
2	Alabama	131.1
3	Ohio St.	127.4
4	Arizona St.	126.2
5	Missouri	123.7
6	Michigan St.	122.0
7	Wisconsin	121.8
8	Clemson	121.4
9	Oregon	121.4
10	L S U	121.4
11	Auburn	121.4
12	Stanford	121.1
13	Oklahoma St.	120.0
14	South Carolina	118.9
15	Baylor	118.3
16	Washington	118.0
17	U C L A	117.2
18	Texas A&M	116.6
19	Georgia	115.2
20	Ole Miss	114.1
21	U S C	113.1
22	Michigan	112.8
23	Louisville	112.5
24	Oklahoma	111.9
25	Notre Dame	111.7
26	Miami	111.3
27	Arizona	110.8
28	North Carolina	110.4
29	Georgia Tech	110.3
30	B Y U	110.2
31	Houston	110.1
32	Cincinnati	109.9
33	Bowling Green	109.6
34	Texas	109.4
35	Duke	109.1
36	Iowa	109.0
37	Central Florida	108.5
38	East Carolina	108.3
39	Penn St.	108.1
40	Marshall	107.7
41	Northern Illinois	107.7
42	Virginia Tech	107.5
43	Nebraska	107.2
44	Minnesota	107.1
45	Oregon St.	106.5
46	Vanderbilt	106.4
47	Kansas St.	106.1
48	Mississippi St.	105.9
49	Utah	105.7
50	Fresno St.	105.5
51	Ball St.	105.3
52	Florida	105.1
53	Washington St.	105.0
54	Utah St.	104.6
55	Northwestern	104.5
56	Indiana	102.8
57	Boston College	102.2
58	Buffalo	102.0
59	North Texas	101.9
60	T C U	101.7
61	Tennessee	101.6
62	Boise St.	101.5
63	Maryland	101.1
64	Wake Forest	101.0
65	Texas Tech	100.8
66	Arkansas	100.5
67	Pittsburgh	100.1
68	Toledo	100.1
69	Syracuse	99.4
70	Colorado St.	99.0
71	Rice	98.7
72	Navy	98.5
73	Illinois	98.1
74	San Jose St.	96.2
75	U T S A	95.5
76	S M U	94.9
77	Memphis	94.1
78	Florida Atlantic	94.1
79	Middle Tennessee	94.1
80	Kentucky	94.1
81	Western Kentucky	94.1
82	Tulane	94.0
83	Louisiana–Lafayette	93.6
84	West Virginia	92.7
85	U N L V	92.7
86	Rutgers	92.6
87	Kent St.	92.6
88	Colorado	92.4
89	North Carolina St.	92.3
90	San Diego St.	91.8
91	Virginia	91.5
92	South Alabama	91.3
93	Temple	91.2
94	Arkansas St.	90.3
95	Ohio	89.4
96	Central Michigan	88.6
97	Nevada	88.5
98	Iowa St.	88.3
99	Akron	88.1
100	Army	86.9
101	Troy	86.6
102	Louisiana–Monroe	86.4
103	South Florida	85.8
104	Kansas	85.8
105	Wyoming	85.4
106	Purdue	84.7
107	Hawaii	84.3
108	Connecticut	84.2
109	California	84.1
110	Tulsa	84.0
111	Texas St.	83.3
112	New Mexico	82.0
113	Louisiana Tech	79.5
114	Western Michigan	79.0
115	Air Force	77.3
116	U A B	76.5
117	U T E P	76.1
118	New Mexico St.	73.3
119	Massachusetts	73.2
120	Georgia St.	72.6
121	Idaho	71.3
122	Miami (O)	69.7
123	Eastern Michigan	69.4
124	Southern Miss.	68.5
125	Florida Int’l	68.3

 

PiRate Bias
1	Florida St.	138.6
2	Alabama	135.3
3	Oklahoma St.	128.6
4	Ohio St.	128.1
5	Arizona St.	127.2
6	Stanford	126.9
7	Baylor	126.3
8	Missouri	125.4
9	Oregon	125.3
10	L S U	124.0
11	Auburn	122.5
12	Wisconsin	121.6
13	Washington	121.6
14	Clemson	121.5
15	Michigan St.	121.5
16	U C L A	120.5
17	South Carolina	120.3
18	Texas A&M	118.4
19	Georgia	117.0
20	Oklahoma	116.6
21	U S C	116.0
22	Ole Miss	116.0
23	Texas	115.8
24	Notre Dame	112.9
25	Louisville	112.8
26	Arizona	112.7
27	Kansas St.	112.0
28	Oregon St.	111.9
29	Michigan	111.5
30	B Y U	111.5
31	Georgia Tech	110.7
32	Miami	110.5
33	North Carolina	110.1
34	Iowa	109.7
35	Bowling Green	109.3
36	Cincinnati	108.6
37	Mississippi St.	108.1
38	Duke	107.8
39	Utah	107.6
40	Utah St.	107.5
41	Vanderbilt	107.5
42	Nebraska	107.3
43	Penn St.	107.2
44	T C U	107.1
45	Minnesota	106.9
46	Central Florida	106.8
47	East Carolina	106.8
48	Florida	106.8
49	Washington St.	106.7
50	Virginia Tech	106.1
51	Northern Illinois	106.1
52	Northwestern	105.9
53	Marshall	105.9
54	Houston	105.8
55	Texas Tech	105.4
56	Fresno St.	105.3
57	Boise St.	104.9
58	Ball St.	102.8
59	Tennessee	102.1
60	Boston College	101.9
61	Buffalo	101.2
62	Indiana	100.9
63	Pittsburgh	100.3
64	North Texas	100.3
65	Colorado St.	99.9
66	Syracuse	99.3
67	Maryland	99.2
68	Wake Forest	98.7
69	Toledo	98.5
70	West Virginia	98.4
71	San Jose St.	98.4
72	Arkansas	97.8
73	Navy	97.6
74	Rice	96.4
75	Illinois	96.0
76	Kentucky	95.0
77	Iowa St.	94.8
78	Florida Atlantic	94.5
79	U T S A	93.4
80	San Diego St.	93.4
81	S M U	93.1
82	Western Kentucky	92.4
83	Louisiana–Lafayette	92.3
84	U N L V	92.1
85	Colorado	91.4
86	Memphis	91.3
87	Tulane	91.2
88	Middle Tennessee	90.6
89	Arkansas St.	90.6
90	Rutgers	90.3
91	Virginia	90.3
92	Kent St.	90.3
93	Kansas	90.1
94	Temple	89.7
95	North Carolina St.	89.3
96	South Alabama	89.1
97	Nevada	87.4
98	South Florida	87.0
99	Connecticut	86.2
100	California	86.1
101	Ohio	86.0
102	Central Michigan	86.0
103	Wyoming	85.2
104	Akron	85.1
105	Louisiana–Monroe	85.0
106	Troy	84.7
107	Purdue	84.5
108	Hawaii	84.4
109	Tulsa	83.7
110	Army	83.1
111	New Mexico	79.8
112	Texas St.	79.0
113	Western Michigan	77.3
114	Louisiana Tech	76.6
115	U A B	74.7
116	Air Force	74.0
117	U T E P	73.1
118	New Mexico St.	70.0
119	Georgia St.	68.5
120	Massachusetts	68.3
121	Southern Miss.	67.2
122	Idaho	67.1
123	Florida Int’l	65.9
124	Eastern Michigan	65.7
125	Miami (O)	65.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	6-1	10-1	113.2	112.5	112.8
Cincinnati	6-1	9-2	108.5	109.9	108.6
Central Florida	7-0	10-1	105.7	108.5	106.8
Houston	5-3	8-4	104.6	110.1	105.8
S M U	4-3	5-6	93.5	94.9	93.1
Rutgers	2-5	5-6	90.7	92.6	90.3
Temple	1-7	2-10	90.2	91.2	89.7
Memphis	1-6	3-8	89.8	94.1	91.3
South Florida	2-5	2-9	87.5	85.8	87.0
Connecticut	2-5	2-9	86.3	84.2	86.2
League Averages			97.0	98.4	97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida St.	8-0	12-0	136.9	140.4	138.6
Clemson	7-1	10-2	120.6	121.4	121.5
Boston College	4-4	7-5	101.5	102.2	101.9
Syracuse	4-4	6-6	99.0	99.4	99.3
Wake Forest	2-6	4-8	98.5	101.0	98.7
Maryland	3-5	7-5	98.0	101.1	99.2
North Carolina St.	0-8	3-9	89.2	92.3	89.3
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Tech	5-3	7-5	111.0	110.3	110.7
Miami	5-3	9-3	110.5	111.3	110.5
North Carolina	4-4	6-6	108.8	110.4	110.1
Duke	6-2	10-2	107.4	109.1	107.8
Virginia Tech	5-3	8-4	106.7	107.5	106.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	6-6	100.5	100.1	100.3
Virginia	0-8	2-10	89.6	91.5	90.3
League Averages			105.6	107.0	106.0

 

Big 12 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma St.	7-1	10-1	127.7	120.0	128.6
Baylor	7-1	10-1	125.2	118.3	126.3
Texas	7-1	8-3	117.1	109.4	115.8
Oklahoma	6-2	9-2	117.0	111.9	116.6
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	112.9	106.1	112.0
T C U	2-7	4-8	107.3	101.7	107.1
Texas Tech	4-5	7-5	106.3	100.8	105.4
West Virginia	2-7	4-8	99.7	92.7	98.4
Iowa St.	2-7	3-9	95.5	88.3	94.8
Kansas	1-8	3-9	90.9	85.8	90.1
League Averages			110.0	103.5	109.5

 

Big Ten Conference
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	8-0	12-0	128.2	127.4	128.1
Wisconsin	6-2	9-3	121.0	121.8	121.6
Penn St.	4-4	7-5	107.4	108.1	107.2
Indiana	3-5	5-7	101.5	102.8	100.9
Illinois	1-7	4-8	96.8	98.1	96.0
Purdue	0-8	1-11	86.5	84.7	84.5
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Michigan St.	8-0	11-1	121.6	122.0	121.5
Michigan	3-5	7-5	112.1	112.8	111.5
Iowa	5-3	8-4	109.5	109.0	109.7
Nebraska	5-3	8-4	108.7	107.2	107.3
Northwestern	1-7	5-7	106.7	104.5	105.9
Minnesota	4-4	8-4	106.8	107.1	106.9
League Averages			108.9	108.8	108.4

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
East Carolina	6-2	9-3	105.9	108.3	106.8
Marshall	7-1	9-3	104.2	107.7	105.9
Florida Atlantic	4-4	6-6	93.4	94.1	94.5
Middle Tennessee	6-2	8-4	89.9	94.1	90.6
U A B	1-7	2-10	75.3	76.5	74.7
Southern Miss.	1-7	1-11	68.0	68.5	67.2
Florida Int’l	1-7	1-11	66.4	68.3	65.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Texas	6-2	8-4	99.5	101.9	100.3
Rice	7-1	9-3	96.2	98.7	96.4
U T S A	6-2	7-5	93.2	95.5	93.4
Tulane	5-3	7-5	90.5	94.0	91.2
Tulsa	2-6	3-9	84.1	84.0	83.7
Louisiana Tech	3-5	4-8	78.0	79.5	76.6
U T E P	1-7	2-10	74.0	76.1	73.1
League Averages			87.0	89.1	87.2

 

Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Notre Dame		8-4	113.9	111.7	112.9
B Y U		8-4	111.6	110.2	111.5
Navy		7-4	97.1	98.5	97.6
Army		3-8	81.8	86.9	83.1
New Mexico St.		2-10	70.5	73.3	70.0
Idaho		1-11	67.4	71.3	67.1
Independent Avg’s.			90.4	92.0	90.4

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	7-1	9-3	108.1	109.6	109.3
Buffalo	6-2	8-4	99.7	102.0	101.2
Kent St.	3-5	4-8	89.6	92.6	90.3
Ohio	4-4	7-5	86.0	89.4	86.0
Akron	4-4	5-7	84.5	88.1	85.1
Massachusetts	1-7	1-11	68.7	73.2	68.3
Miami (O)	0-8	0-12	67.5	69.7	65.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Northern Illinois	8-0	12-0	105.1	107.7	106.1
Ball St.	7-1	10-2	101.7	105.3	102.8
Toledo	5-3	7-5	98.0	100.1	98.5
Central Michigan	5-3	6-6	85.9	88.6	86.0
Western Michigan	1-7	1-11	76.8	79.0	77.3
Eastern Michigan	1-7	2-10	67.2	69.4	65.7
League Averages			87.6	90.4	87.8

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah St.	7-1	8-4	105.8	104.6	107.5
Boise St.	6-2	8-4	103.9	101.5	104.9
Colorado St.	5-3	7-6	98.9	99.0	99.9
Wyoming	3-5	5-7	84.9	85.4	85.2
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	79.5	82.0	79.8
Air Force	0-8	2-10	74.4	77.3	74.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	7-1	10-1	105.6	105.5	105.3
San Jose St.	5-3	6-6	98.0	96.2	98.4
San Diego St.	6-2	7-5	92.7	91.8	93.4
U N L V	5-3	7-5	91.2	92.7	92.1
Nevada	3-5	4-8	87.0	88.5	87.4
Hawaii	0-8	1-11	83.5	84.3	84.4
League Averages			92.1	92.4	92.7

 

Pacific 12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Stanford	7-2	10-2	127.7	121.1	126.9
Oregon	7-2	10-2	125.5	121.4	125.3
Washington	5-4	8-4	122.2	118.0	121.6
Oregon St.	4-5	6-6	113.5	106.5	111.9
Washington St.	4-5	6-6	105.8	105.0	106.7
California	0-9	1-11	88.2	84.1	86.1
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona St.	8-1	10-2	127.3	126.2	127.2
U C L A	6-3	9-3	121.3	117.2	120.5
U S C	6-3	9-4	116.6	113.1	116.0
Arizona	4-5	7-5	114.1	110.8	112.7
Utah	2-7	5-7	108.1	105.7	107.6
Colorado	1-8	4-8	92.1	92.4	91.4
League Averages			113.5	110.1	112.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	7-1	11-1	125.2	123.7	125.4
South Carolina	6-2	10-2	120.8	118.9	120.3
Georgia	5-3	8-4	117.0	115.2	117.0
Vanderbilt	4-4	8-4	107.9	106.4	107.5
Florida	3-5	4-8	107.4	105.1	106.8
Tennessee	2-6	4-8	102.8	101.6	102.1
Kentucky	0-8	2-10	95.7	94.1	95.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	7-1	11-1	134.8	131.1	135.3
L S U	5-3	9-3	123.2	121.4	124.0
Auburn	7-1	11-1	122.2	121.4	122.5
Texas A&M	4-4	8-4	119.1	116.6	118.4
Ole Miss	3-5	7-5	117.4	114.1	116.0
Mississippi St.	3-5	6-6	107.9	105.9	108.1
Arkansas	0-8	3-9	98.6	100.5	97.8
League Averages			114.3	112.6	114.0

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Kentucky	4-3	8-4	92.2	94.1	92.4
Louisiana–Lafayette	5-1	8-3	92.1	93.6	92.3
Arkansas St.	5-2	7-5	90.5	90.3	90.6
South Alabama	3-3	5-6	88.0	91.3	89.1
Louisiana–Monroe	4-3	6-6	85.3	86.4	85.0
Troy	4-3	6-6	83.6	86.6	84.7
Texas St.	2-5	6-6	79.1	83.3	79.0
Georgia St.	0-7	0-12	67.7	72.6	68.5
League Averages			84.8	87.3	85.2

 

Transitioning Teams
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern		7-4	88.1	90.4	94.8
Old Dominion		8-4	83.4	84.7	89.2
Appalachian St.		3-8	74.1	73.0	80.8
Charlotte		5-6	58.4	63.0	65.5
Not figured in regular averages to 100			76.0	77.8	82.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	Louisville	-2.2	-0.1	-1.7
Bowling Green (n)	Northern Illinois (Det.)	3.0	1.9	3.2
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	-8.7	-6.1	-10.0
S M U	Central Florida	-9.2	-10.6	-10.7
Connecticut	Memphis	-0.5	-6.9	-2.1
Baylor	Texas	10.6	11.4	13.0
Missouri (n)	Auburn (Atlanta)	3.0	2.3	2.9
Rutgers	South Florida	6.2	9.8	6.3
Arizona St.	Stanford	2.6	8.1	3.3
Florida St. (n)	Duke (Charlotte)	29.5	31.3	30.8
South Alabama	UL-Lafayette	-2.1	-0.3	-1.2
Ohio St. (n)	Michigan St. (Indpls.)	6.6	5.4	6.6

 

Bowl Projections

We are playing the contrarian this week.  Our bowl projections show us going with Missouri to beat Auburn, Bowling Green to beat Northern Illinois, Arizona St. to beat Stanford, and Michigan St. to beat Ohio St.  If you want the standard fare, you can find about 20 other sites with conventional bowl projections this week.

 

If Missouri beats Auburn and Michigan St. beats Ohio St., we believe the Tigers will narrowly edge out Alabama for the number two spot in the BCS and advance to the title game.

 

GAME	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	U N L V	vs.	Oregon St.
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas	Fresno St.	vs.	Washington
Famous Idaho Potato	Colorado St.	vs.	Ball St.
New Orleans	UL-Lafayette %	vs.	Tulane
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s	Toledo *	vs.	Middle Tennessee
Hawai’i	San Diego St.	vs.	North Texas
Little Caesars Pizza	Northern Illinois	vs.	Syracuse *
Poinsettia	Utah St.	vs.	Washington St. *
Military Bowl	Boston College	vs.	East Carolina
Texas	Minnesota	vs.	North Carolina *
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	Arizona	vs.	B Y U %
Pinstripe	Houston	vs.	Notre Dame *
Belk	Louisville	vs.	Virginia Tech
Russell Athletic	Cincinnati	vs.	Clemson
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Kansas St.	vs.	Nebraska
Armed Forces	Boise St.	vs.	Navy %
Music City	Georgia Tech	vs.	Ole Miss
Alamo	Oklahoma	vs.	Stanford
Holiday	Texas Tech	vs.	U C L A
AdvoCare V100 Bowl	Western Kentucky *	vs.	Maryland
Sun	Miami	vs.	U S C
Liberty	Mississippi St.	vs.	Marshall
Chick-fil-A	Duke	vs.	L S U
Heart Of Dallas	Rice	vs.	Pittsburgh *
Gator	Michigan	vs.	Georgia
Outback	South Carolina	vs.	Iowa
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Auburn
Rose	Michigan St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Fiesta	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Central Florida
Sugar	Ohio St.	vs.	Baylor
Cotton	Texas A&M	vs.	Texas
Orange	Alabama	vs.	Oregon
BBVA Compass Bowl	Rutgers	vs.	Vanderbilt
GoDaddy.com	Arkansas St.	vs.	Bowling Green
BCS Championship	Florida St.	vs.	Missouri
* At-Large Selection
% Already Accepted Bid