The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Friday, March 16

Friday’s PiRate Rating Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Texas A&M Providence 3.8
Purdue Cal St. Fullerton 17.0
Wichita St. Marshall 9.4
Cincinnati Georgia St. 12.7
North Carolina Lipscomb 17.4
Arkansas Butler -1.2
West Virginia Murray St. 6.3
Nevada Texas 2.5
Creighton Kansas St. 2.5
Michigan St. Bucknell 12.8
Xavier Texas Southern 20.0
Auburn Charleston 11.9
Virginia MD-Baltimore Co. 20.6
TCU Syracuse 4.3
Missouri Florida St. -1.1
Clemson New Mexico St. 4.1

Today’s NCAA Tournament Schedule

Friday, Mar 16, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:15 PM 7 Texas A&M 10 Providence Charlotte CBS
12:40 PM 2 Purdue 15 Cal St. Fullerton Detroit truTV
1:30 PM 4 Wichita St. 13 Marshall San Diego TNT
2:00 PM 2 Cincinnati 15 Georgia St. Nashville TBS
2:45 PM 2 North Carolina 15 Lipscomb Charlotte CBS
3:10 PM 7 Arkansas 10 Butler Detroit truTV
4:00 PM 5 West Virginia 12 Murray St. San Diego TNT
4:30 PM 7 Nevada 10 Texas Nashville TBS
6:50 PM 8 Creighton 9 Kansas St. Charlotte TNT
7:10 PM 3 Michigan St. 14 Bucknell Detroit CBS
7:20 PM 1 Xavier 16 Texas Southern Nashville TBS
7:27 PM 4 Auburn 13 Charleston San Diego truTV
9:20 PM 1 Virginia 16 MD-Baltimore Co. Charlotte TNT
9:40 PM 6 TCU 11 Syracuse Detroit CBS
9:50 PM 8 Missouri 9 Florida St. Nashville TBS
9:57 PM 5 Clemson 12 New Mexico St. San Diego truTV

Saturday’s Schedule

Saturday, Mar 17, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:10 PM 1 Villanova 9 Alabama Pittsburgh CBS
2:40 PM 2 Duke 7 Rhode Island Pittsburgh CBS
5:15 PM 5 Kentucky 13 Buffalo Boise, ID CBS
6:10 PM 3 Tennessee 11 Loyola (Chi.) Dallas TNT
7:10 PM 1 Kansas 8 Seton Hall Wichita, KS TBS
7:45 PM 4 Gonzaga 5 Ohio St. Boise, ID CBS
8:40 PM 3 North Texas 6 Florida Dallas TNT
9:40 PM 3 Michigan 6 Houston Wichita, KS TBS

Bracket Results To Date: 15-5

Today’s Criteria Bracket Picks

Virginia over Maryland-Baltimore Co.

Creighton over Kansas St.

Texas over Nevada

Cincinnati over Georgia St.

Xavier over Texas Southern

Missouri over Florida St.

Texas A&M over Providence

North Carolina over Lipscomb

West Virginia over Murray St.

Wichita St. over Marshall

Butler over Arkansas

Purdue over Cal. St. Fullerton

Clemson over New Mexico St.

Auburn over College of Charleston

Syracuse over TCU

Michigan St. over Bucknell

 

 

 

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March 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Thursday, March 15

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , — piratings @ 5:08 am

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Rhode Island Oklahoma -1.1
Tennessee Wright St. 12.6
Gonzaga UNC-Greensboro 11.0
Kansas Penn 13.4
Duke Iona 18.4
Miami (Fla.) Loyola (Chi.) 0.6
Ohio St. South Dakota St. 6.8
Seton Hall North Carolina St. 1.2
Villanova Radford 21.1
Kentucky Davidson 4.4
Houston San Diego St 4.4
Texas Tech Stephen F. Austin 10.7
Virginia Tech Alabama 1.8
Arizona Buffalo 5.2
Michigan Montana 7.7
Florida St. Bonaventure 4.5

Today’s NCAA Tournament Schedule

All Times Eastern Daylight

Thursday, Mar 15, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:15 PM 7 Rhode Island 10 Oklahoma Pittsburgh CBS
12:40 PM 3 Tennessee 14 Wright St. Dallas truTV
1:30 PM 4 Gonzaga 13 UNC-Greensboro Boise, ID TNT
2:00 PM 1 Kansas 16 Penn Wichita, KS TBS
2:45 PM 2 Duke 15 Iona Pittsburgh CBS
3:10 PM 6 Miami (Fla.) 11 Loyola (Chi.) Dallas truTV
4:00 PM 5 Ohio St. 12 South Dakota St. Boise, ID TNT
4:30 PM 8 Seton Hall 9 North Carolina St. Wichita, KS TBS
6:50 PM 1 Villanova 16 Radford Pittsburgh TNT
7:10 PM 5 Kentucky 12 Davidson Boise, ID CBS
7:20 PM 6 Houston 11 San Diego St Wichita, KS TBS
7:27 PM 3 Texas Tech 14 Stephen F. Austin Dallas truTV
9:20 PM 8 Virginia Tech 9 Alabama Pittsburgh TNT
9:40 PM 4 Arizona 13 Buffalo Boise, ID CBS
9:50 PM 3 Michigan 14 Montana Wichita, KS TBS
9:57 PM 6 Florida 11 St. Bonaventure Dallas truTV

Bracket Picking Record to Date: 3-1

Today’s Bracket Picking Predicted Winners

Oklahoma over Rhode Island

Tennessee over Wright St.

Gonzaga over UNC-Greensboro

Kansas over Penn

Duke over Iona

Loyola (Chi.) over Miami (Fla.) [UPSET]

Ohio St. over South Dakota St.

Seton Hall over North Carolina St.

Villanova over Radford

Kentucky over Davidson

Houston over San Diego St.

Texas Tech over Stephen F. Austin

Virginia Tech over Alabama

Arizona over Buffalo

Michigan over Montana

St. Bonaventure over Florida [UPSET]

 

 

 

March 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Wed., March 14

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
UNC-Central Texas Southern -2.8
Arizona St. Syracuse 1.9

Tournament Schedule

All Times Eastern Daylight

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
6:40 PM 16 UNC-Central 16 Texas Southern Dayton, OH truTV
9:10 PM 11 Arizona St. 11 Syracuse Dayton, OH truTV

 

Thursday, Mar 15, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:15 PM 7 Rhode Island 10 Oklahoma Pittsburgh CBS
12:40 PM 3 Tennessee 14 Wright St. Dallas truTV
1:30 PM 4 Gonzaga 13 UNC-Greensboro Boise, ID TNT
2:00 PM 1 Kansas 16 Penn Wichita, KS TBS
2:45 PM 2 Duke 15 Iona Pittsburgh CBS
3:10 PM 6 Miami (Fla.) 11 Loyola (Chi.) Dallas truTV
4:00 PM 5 Ohio St. 12 South Dakota St. Boise, ID TNT
4:30 PM 8 Seton Hall 9 North Carolina St. Wichita, KS TBS
6:50 PM 1 Villanova 16 Radford Pittsburgh TNT
7:10 PM 5 Kentucky 12 Davidson Boise, ID CBS
7:20 PM 6 Houston 11 San Diego St Wichita, KS TBS
7:27 PM 3 Texas Tech 14 Stephen F. Austin Dallas truTV
9:20 PM 8 Virginia Tech 9 Alabama Pittsburgh TNT
9:40 PM 4 Arizona 13 Buffalo Boise, ID CBS
9:50 PM 3 Michigan 14 Montana Wichita, KS TBS
9:57 PM 6 Florida 11 St. Bonaventure Dallas truTV

 

Friday, Mar 16, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:15 PM 7 Texas A&M 10 Providence Charlotte CBS
12:40 PM 2 Purdue 15 Cal St. Fullerton Detroit truTV
1:30 PM 4 Wichita St. 13 Marshall San Diego TNT
2:00 PM 2 Cincinnati 15 Georgia St. Nashville TBS
2:45 PM 2 North Carolina 15 Lipscomb Charlotte CBS
3:10 PM 7 Arkansas 10 Butler Detroit truTV
4:00 PM 5 West Virginia 12 Murray St. San Diego TNT
4:30 PM 7 Nevada 10 Texas Nashville TBS
6:50 PM 8 Creighton 9 Kansas St. Charlotte TNT
7:10 PM 3 Michigan St. 14 Bucknell Detroit CBS
7:20 PM 1 Xavier 16 UNCC/Tex Sou. Nashville TBS
7:27 PM 4 Auburn 13 Charleston San Diego truTV
9:20 PM 1 Virginia 16 MD-Baltimore Co. Charlotte TNT
9:40 PM 6 TCU 11 Ariz.St./Syracuse Detroit CBS
9:50 PM 8 Missouri 9 Florida St. Nashville TBS
9:57 PM 5 Clemson 12 New Mexico St. San Diego truTV

 

Note: Virginia’s outstanding 6th Man De’Andre Hunter is out for the season, and this will knock the Cavaliers down a few notches in our criteria.  If you have not submitted your brackets yet, you might take this into consideration, as the Cavaliers have lost a potent weapon that could play anywhere on the floor.  He was to Virginia what John Havlicek was to the Boston Celtics in the 1960’s, the 6th man that was the secret sauce of Red Auerbach’s extended success.  Without Hunter, Virginia reverts back to a great defensive team that lacks enough offensive power to beat an athletic opponent the likes of Arizona or Cincinnati.  Hunter was instrumental in helping the Cavs secure two wins over Syracuse, and road wins against Miami and Virginia Tech.

 

The PiRates New Criteria Shows Beginner’s Luck

Did you read our lengthy piece yesterday pertaining to our brand new paradigm?  The PiRates scrapped our old, archaic system of picking brackets and debuted our new mostly statistical metric based criteria.

We were not sure how successful it might be in the first year of its existence, and we are sure we will need to tweak it some in the ensuing years, but we started out with a bang last night.

We hit both games and basically called how St. Bonaventure would send the Sons of Westwood home to SoCal.  We wrote that we believed the Bonnies would force turnovers on the Bruins, which would be the deciding factor in the game, and it was spot on.

We are reminded that a broken watch is also correct twice a day.

 

 

 

 

 

March 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 5, 2018

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads for Conference Tournament Games 

Home Team Visitor  
or Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Charleston William & Mary 4.1
Northeastern UNC-Wilmington 9.6
Oakland Cleveland St. 8.4
Wright St. Milwaukee 4.0
Iona Fairfield 4.7
Central Michigan Bowling Green 7.6
Kent St. Northern Illinois 5.5
Miami (O) Ohio 2.7
Western Michigan Akron 7.8
North Carolina A&T Delaware St. 10.4
Norfolk St. Md. Eastern Shore 12.2
UNC-Greensboro East Tennessee St. -0.3
South Dakota St. North Dakota St. 6.4
South Dakota Denver 10.5
Gonzaga San Francisco 14.5
Saint Mary’s BYU 4.5

Yesterday’s Championship Games

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Lipscomb 108 Florida Gulf Coast 96
Big South Conference Tournament
Radford 55 Liberty 52
Big Ten Conference Tournament
Michigan 75 Purdue 66
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Loyola (Chi.) 65 Illinois St. 49

Teams Already In The Field

Team Conf. W-L
Murray St. OVC 26-5
Radford B-South 22-12
Loyola (Chi.) MVC 28-5
Lipscomb A-SUN 23-9
Michigan BTen 28-7

Conference Tournament Championship Games Today

All Times EST

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #4 Iona #6 Fairfield ESPN
Southern Conference Tournament
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM #1 UNC-Greensboro #2 East Tennessee St. ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments In Action Today

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Charleston #4 William & Mary CBSSN
8:30 PM #2 Northeastern #6 UNC-Wilmington CBSSN
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Chas/W&M NE/UNCW CBSSN

 

Horizon League Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #4 Oakland #8 Cleveland St. ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Wright St. #6 Milwaukee ESPNU
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Oak/CSU WSU/Milw ESPN

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Cleveland (First Round at Higher Seeds)
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 5
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #8 Central Michigan #9 Bowling Green ESPN3
7:00 PM #5 Kent St. #12 Northern Illinois ESPN3
7:00 PM #7 Miami (O) #10 Ohio U ESPN3
7:45 PM #6 Western Michigan #11 Akron ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Buffalo CMU or BGU ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Ball St. Kent or NIU ESPN3
6:30 PM #2 Toledo Mia or Ohio ESPN3
9:00 PM #3 Eastern Michigan WMU or Akron ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM Buff/CMU/BGU Ball/Kent/NIU CBSSN
9:00 PM Tol/Mia/Ohio EMU/WMU/Akron CBSSN *
* This game will be available at cbssports.com
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Norfolk, VA
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 North Carolina A&T #13 Delaware St. ESPN3
9:00 PM #5 Norfolk St. #12 Md-Eastern Shore ESPN3
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM #8 Howard #9 Florida A&M ESPN3
6:30 PM #6 UNC-Central #11 Coppin St. ESPN3
9:00 PM #7 Morgan St. #10 South Carolina St. ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Hampton Howard or FAMU ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Bethune-Cookman MSU or SCSU ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #3 Savannah St. UNCC or Coppin ESPN3
8:00 PM NCAT or Dela St. Norf St or UMES ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Hampton/Howard/FAMU NCAT/DelSt/NorfSt/UMES ESPN3
8:00 PM BCU/MSU/SCSU Sav/UNCC/Coppin ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Summit League Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 South Dakota St. #5 North Dakota St. ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 South Dakota #3 Denver ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM SDSU/NDSU USD/Denver ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM #1 Gonzaga #4 San Francisco ESPN
11:00 PM #2 Saint Mary’s #3 BYU ESPN2
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM  Gonzaga/USF SMU/BYU  ESPN

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report Coming Later Today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 27, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–February 27, 2018

Last Night’s Games

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–February 26
   
Florida Gulf Coast 96 USC Upstate 76
North Florida 80 NJIT 76
Lipscomb 89 Stetson 73
Jacksonville 87 Kennesaw St . 68

Atlantic Sun Bracket

All times EST

Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #3 Jacksonville ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
3:00 PM Higher Remaining Seed Lower Remaining Seed ESPN

Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Big South Conference Tournament
1st Round & Championship Game at Higher Seeds
Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 27
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #7 High Point #10 Longwood BSN
7:00 PM #8 Charleston Southern #9 Presbyterian BSN
BSN TV at http://bigsouthsports.com    
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #2 Radford High Point or Longwood ESPN3
3:30 PM #3 Winthrop #6 Gardner-Webb ESPN3
7:00 PM #1 UNC-Asheville Presbyterian or Chas Sou. ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Campbell #5 Liberty ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Rad/HP/Longwood Winthrop/G-Webb ESPN3
8:30 PM UNCA/Presby/Chas Sou Campbell or Liberty ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
1:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN

UNC-Asheville should make it to the Championship Game, but Liberty could be a tough out in the semifinals.  Radford and Winthrop are fairly evenly matched on the other side of the bracket, but Radford probably has the better overall talent and is playing a little stronger at this point in the season.  Both Radford and Winthrop split their series against UNCA, with the home team winning every game, but UNCA narrowly won their home games over the two contenders, while they were blown out on the road.  The big news is that UNCA as the #1 seed will be at home for all games it plays in this tournament.

Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 27
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #7 Lafayette #10 American Stadium
7:00 PM #8 Loyola (MD) #9 Army Stadium
       
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Bucknell Loyola or Army Stadium
7:00 PM #4 Lehigh #5 Boston U Stadium
7:00 PM #2 Colgate Lafayette or American Stadium
7:00 PM #3 Navy #6 Holy Cross Stadium
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
12/2 Bucknell/Loyola/Army Lehigh or Boston U CBSSN
12/2 Colgate/Lafayette/American Navy or Holy Cross CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
7:30 PM     CBSSN

Bucknell is the overwhelming favorite to cruise to the Patriot League Championship.  The Bison did lose at home to Boston U during the regular season, but they won 15 of 16 games after that, with the only loss coming on the road against Lehigh in overtime.

One player to watch in this tournament is forward Zach Thomas of Bucknell.  He averages 21 points and 9 rebounds per game.  He is a multi-tool player, as he might be the best passer on the team as well.

Colgate has a couple of streaky three-point shooters in Will Rayman and Jordan Swopshire, but the Raiders have no inside muscle and will have to rely on hot shooting to have a chance to get past Bucknell, if they make it to the title game.

Lehigh is the team to watch in this tournament.  The Hawks are red hot and ride an eight-game winning streak as the tournament begins.  Included in that streak is a win over Bucknell, where the Hawks connected on 11 of 21 three-point shots.  Lehigh has what Clark Kellogg calls “spurtability.”  They get hot streaks and go on big runs, fueled by excellent defensive play from their guards that can pressure the ball.   A player to watch for Lehigh is tiny guard Kahron Ross.  He can pick your pockets clean and then feed a teammate for an easy bucket.  A potential semifinal game with Bucknell could be the most exciting tournament game this week.

If you were wondering what Stadium TV is, this is a free over the air network that is available in most markets.  It was American Sports Network at one time and merged with Campus Insiders online.  You can check for the proper channel in your market here: https://23455-presscdn-pagely.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Stadium-Active-Markets-February-5.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Conference Championship Games: January 21, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Sunday, January 21, 2018

3:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at New England Patriots (14-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 7.6

Mean: New England by 8.0

Bias: New England by 7.4

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 27  Jacksonville 17 

 

6:40 PM on Fox

Minnesota Vikings (14-3-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 2.0

Mean: Minnesota by 1.2

Bias:  Minnesota by 2.1

Total: 37

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 20  Philadelphia 17

January 8, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Divisional Playoff Round: January 13-14, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday, January 13, 2018

4:35 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (11-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3-0)

PiRate: Philadelphia by 5.2

Mean: Philadelphia by 5.6

Bias: Philadelphia by 5.1

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Philadelphia 26  Atlanta 20

 

8:15 PM on CBS

Tennessee Titans (10-7-0) at New England Patriots (13-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 11.5

Mean: New England by  11.5

Bias: New England by 11.7

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 28  Tennessee 16

 

Sunday, January 14, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3-0)

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 6.1

Mean: Pittsburgh by 6.4

Bias: Pittsburgh by 5.9

Total: 43

Estimated Realistic Score: Pittsburgh 24 Jacksonville 17

 

4:40 PM on Fox Sports

New Orleans Saints (12-5-0) at Minnesota Vikings (13-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 4.7

Mean: Minnesota by 4.8

Bias: Minnesota by 4.8

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 24  New Orleans 20

March 14, 2017

Starting Times For NCAA Tournament Second Round Games

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:36 pm
Day Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
Thursday, March 16 12:15 PM CBS Notre Dame vs. Princeton
Thursday, March 16 12:40 PM truTV Virginia vs. UNC-Wilmington
Thursday, March 16 1:30 PM TNT Butler vs. Winthrop
Thursday, March 16 2:00 PM TBS Gonzaga vs. South Dakota St.
Thursday, March 16 2:45 PM CBS West Virginia vs. Bucknell
Thursday, March 16 3:10 PM truTV Florida vs. East Tennessee St.
Thursday, March 16 4:00 PM TNT Minnesota vs. Middle Tennessee
Thursday, March 16 4:30 PM TBS Northwestern vs. Vanderbilt
Thursday, March 16 6:50 PM TNT Maryland vs. Xavier
Thursday, March 16 7:10 PM CBS Villanova vs. Mt. St. Marys/UNO
Thursday, March 16 7:20 PM TBS Saint Mary’s vs. VCU
Thursday, March 16 7:27 PM truTV Purdue vs. Vermont
Thursday, March 16 9:20 PM TNT Florida St. vs. Florida Gulf Coast
Thursday, March 16 9:40 PM CBS Wisconsin vs. Virginia Tech
Thursday, March 16 9:50 PM TBS Arizona vs. North Dakota
Thursday, March 16 9:57 PM truTV Iowa St. vs. Nevada
Friday, March 17 12:15 PM CBS Michigan vs. Oklahoma St.
Friday, March 17 12:40 PM truTV Baylor vs. New Mexico St.
Friday, March 17 1:30 PM TNT Arkansas vs. Seton Hall
Friday, March 17 2:00 PM TBS Oregon vs. Iona
Friday, March 17 2:45 PM CBS Louisville vs. Jacksonville St.
Friday, March 17 3:10 PM truTV SMU vs. Providence/USC
Friday, March 17 4:00 PM TNT North Carolina vs. Texas Southern
Friday, March 17 4:30 PM TBS Creighton vs. Rhode Island
Friday, March 17 6:50 PM TNT Kansas vs. UNC-Cent./UC-Davis
Friday, March 17 7:10 PM CBS Dayton vs. Wichita St.
Friday, March 17 7:20 PM TBS Duke vs. Troy
Friday, March 17 7:27 PM truTV Cincinnati vs. Kan. St./Wake Forest
Friday, March 17 9:20 PM TNT Miami (Fla.) vs. Michigan St.
Friday, March 17 9:40 PM CBS Kentucky vs. Northern Kentucky
Friday, March 17 9:50 PM TBS South Carolina vs. Marquette
Friday, March 17 9:57 PM truTV UCLA vs. Kent St.

March 10, 2017

Conference Tournament Update–Friday, March 10, 2017

Bubble Update

Iowa, Illinois, and Utah clinched bids yesterday, but it’s to the junior prom rather than the senior prom.  The trio are NIT-bound.  USC lost a close one to rival UCLA last night, but we believe the Trojans are rather safe for now.

Some interesting upsets has made it a nerve-wracking day for a few teams that thought they were on the good side of the Bubble.  Let’s take a look at those teams that received Bubble invitations Thursday.

A. TCU–The Horned Frogs pulled the big upset over Kansas, although the Jayhawks were missing a key player due to suspension.  Kansas will remain a #1 seed, but they could move down to the fourth top-seed.  Meanwhile, Jamie Dixon is looking like a genius, taking a program that has been down for a long time and bringing it to the precipice of NCAA Tournament membership.  A Frog win today over Iowa State would give TCU 20 wins with a better than average schedule strength.  It would be mighty impressive on a resume, and the Committee would probably move that piece of paper up into the “accepted pile.”

B. Kansas State–The surprises kept coming in Kansas City, as the Wildcats knocked off Baylor in the nightcap of the Big 12 Quarterfinals.  At this point, K-State may have done enough to earn a bid, so this is probably the end of the line for Illinois State, and it could put a Friday Bubble loser in jeopardy.

C. Indiana demolished Iowa yesterday, and the Hoosiers looked more like the team they were suppose to be this year.  If IU drops Wisconsin today, the Hoosier will have a chance to make the field.  However, the Committee does not seem to favor the Big Ten this year, and it would be difficult to substantiate Indiana making the field if they do not advance to the Championship Game.  Purdue may be fortunate to become a 4-seed, and with Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State all expected to make the field, an eighth Big Ten team would have to be very impressive in the next couple of days in order to make the field.  The interesting plot line here is that IU can win this tournament if they continue to play like they did yesterday, and then it would almost be a given that the Big Ten sent eight teams.  That would definitely burst a Bubble down the line.

D. Xavier had played itself down to the Bubble prior to Big East Tournament play, but the Musketeers moved back to the safe zone with their win over Butler Thursday.  XU will get a bid even if Creighton tops them tonight.

Bubblelicious Games on Friday

If your favorite team is still in that gray area,  and another upset or two makes the Committee order more ice cream, it could be a nervous 48 hours if your team loses today.  Here are the teams that should consider today must win games, even if some Bracketologists consider these teams to be in the field.  The key is that our 13 Bracketology Gurus are not unanimous in their beliefs that these teams are safe even with a loss today.

A. Vanderbilt:  The Commodores made it three for three over Texas A&M, and they bombed away from the perimeter to bury the Aggies with a second half barrage of threes.  Vandy must now do the same thing to the highly-ranked Florida Gators today to become a safe Bubble team.  A loss would leave the Commodores at 18-15, and that would give VU two negatives.  No 15-loss team has ever received and at-large bid, and almost all at-large teams have won four more games than they have lost.  19-15 improves Vandy’s chances by leaps and bounds over 18-15.

B. Houston: The Cougars still need more than one win to have any chance to make the Field.  They must beat UConn today, and then they will need an upset of Cincinnati tomorrow to even move into serious consideration.  Of course, that means Cinti must win their game against Tulsa.

C. Rhode Island is in the same boat with Houston.  Not only must the Rams take out St. Bonaventure today to have a shot at the Dance, they also must upset Dayton tomorrow and thus need Dayton to beat Davidson to set up that game.

D. TCU will move into the Field with a win over Iowa State today.  Of course, it will be a probationary invitation, because they could then be leapfrogged if a team like Indiana or Alabama should win an automatic bid.

E. Speaking of Indiana, the Hoosiers will become an official Bubbler today if they beat Wisconsin.

F. All four SEC games today have Bubble Implications.  We already told you about Vanderbilt.  Georgia has a chance to make some noise if the Bulldogs can find a way to upset Kentucky.  UGA came close to sweeping the Wildcats in the regular season only to lose two heartbreakers.  If UK wants to win this tournament, they will waltz through with three double-digit wins, but if the players are already thinking about the NBA Draft and don’t want to jeopardize their chances by giving their all and risking injury, then any team left in the field can beat the Wildcats.

G. Ole Miss has 20 wins, and a win today over Arkansas, followed by a possible win tomorrow over Florida (if UF beat Vandy), could move the Rebels into contention for a bid.

H. Alabama is the forgotton team in the SEC Tournament.  The Crimson Tide have the potential to play with any league member when they take smart shots.  Coach Avery Johnson knows how to prepare his team to compete, and it all comes down to FG% for the Tide.  Until somebody beats the Crimson, they cannot be overlooked–even if they are.  If the Tide beats South Carolina today and then gets a semifinal game with Kentucky tomorrow, a win over the Wildcats would have to make ‘Bama a serious contender.

I. The three Mid-Major Players: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, and Texas-Arlington are still alive in the at-large race, but the way the trio is playing, they will really have to lay an egg to lose in their conference tournaments.  MTSU faces the one team that beat them in conference play today, and we expect the Blue Raiders to punish UTEP with a blowout win.

Nevada faces a somewhat tougher task facing Fresno State, and if the men from Reno win, they are no guarantee in the Championship against either Colorado State or San Diego State.  In fact, the way the Aztecs played yesterday, they looked similar to all their past teams that advanced into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  This is possibly the best tournament to watch tonight if you are a basketball junkie from another league.

UT-Arlington is the least likely of the three in this group to get an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament, but they do own the one victory over Saint Mary’s other than the three Gonzaga pinned on the Gaels.  There isn’t a lot to add to their schedule strength, so UTA really needs to win the Sun Belt title.

Friday’s Schedule

Conference Tournament Schedule–All Times Eastern Standard
American Athletic Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 SMU 27-4 vs. 9 East Carolina 15-17 12:00 PM ESPN2
4 Central Florida 20-10 vs. 5 Memphis 19-12 2:00 PM ESPN2
2 Cincinnati 27-4 vs. 7 Tulsa 15-16 7:00 PM ESPNU
3 Houston 21-9 vs. 6 Connecticut 15-16 9:00 PM ESPNU
                 
Atlantic Coast Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 North Carolina 27-6 vs. 5 Duke 25-8 7:00 PM ESPN
2 Florida St. 25-7 vs. 3 Notre Dame 24-8 9:00 PM ESPN
                 
Atlantic 10 Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Dayton 24-6 vs. 9 Davidson 16-14 12:00 PM NBCSN
4 Rhode Island 21-9 vs. 5 St. Bonaventure 20-11 2:30 PM NBCSN
2 VCU 24-7 vs. 7 George Mason 20-12 6:00 PM NBCSN
3 Richmond 19-11 vs. 6 George Washington 19-13 8:30 PM NBCSN
                 
Big 12 Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
8 TCU 19-14 vs. 4 Iowa St. 21-10 7:00 PM ESPN2
2 West Virginia 25-7 vs. 6 Kansas St. 20-12 9:00 PM ESPN2
                 
Big East Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Villanova 29-3 vs. 5 Seton Hall 21-10 6:30 PM FS1
7 Xavier 21-12 vs. 6 Creighton 24-8 9:00 PM FS1
                 
Big Sky Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 North Dakota 20-9 vs. 4 Idaho 18-12 8:35 PM Big Sky
2 Eastern Washington 22-10 vs. 3 Weber St. 18-12 11:05 PM Big Sky
                 
Big Ten Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Purdue 25-6 vs. 8 Michigan 21-11 12:00 PM ESPN
4 Minnesota 23-8 vs. 5 Michigan St. 19-13 2:20 PM ESPN
2 Wisconsin 23-8 vs. 10 Indiana 18-14 6:30 PM BTN
3 Maryland 24-7 vs. 6 Northwestern 22-10 8:50 PM BTN
                 
Big West Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
2 UC-Davis 20-12 vs. 3 Cal St. Fullerton 17-13 9:30 PM ESPN3
1 UC-Irvine 20-13 vs. 4 Long Beach St. 15-18 12:00 AM ESPN3
                 
Conference USA
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Middle Tennessee 28-4 vs. 4 UTEP 15-16 12:30 PM CBSSN
2 Louisiana Tech 23-9 vs. 6 Marshall 19-14 3:00 PM CBSSN
                 
Mid-American Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Akron 25-7 vs. 4 Ball St. 21-11 5:30 PM CBSSN
2 Ohio U 20-10 vs. 6 Kent St. 20-13 8:00 PM CBSSN
                 
Mideastern Athletic Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 UNC-Central 23-8 vs. 5 Md.–Eastern Shore 13-19 6:00 PM ESPN3
2 Norfolk St. 16-15 vs. 11 Howard 10-23 8:00 PM ESPN3
                 
Mountain West Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Nevada 26-6 vs. 4 Fresno St. 20-11 10:00 PM CBSSN
2 Colorado St. 22-10 vs. 6 San Diego St. 20-13 12:30 AM CBSSN
                 
Pac-12 Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Oregon 28-4 vs. 5 California 21-11 9:00 PM P12 Net.
2 Arizona 28-4 vs. 3 UCLA 29-3 11:30 PM ESPN
                 
Southeastern Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Kentucky 26-5 vs. 8 Georgia 19-13 1:00 PM SECN
4 South Carolina 22-9 vs. 5 Alabama 18-13 3:20 PM SECN
2 Florida 24-7 vs. 7 Vanderbilt 18-14 7:00 PM SECN
3 Arkansas 23-8 vs. 6 Ole Miss 20-12 9:20 PM SECN
                 
Southland Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 New Orleans 18-11 vs. 5 Sam Houston St. 21-12 6:00 PM ESPN3
2 Texas A&M-CC 19-10 vs. 3 Stephen F. Austin 18-13 8:30 PM ESPN3
                 
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Texas Southern 21-11 vs. 5 Grambling 16-16 3:30 PM None
2 Alcorn St. * 17-13 vs. 3 Southern 15-17 9:30 PM None
                 
*Alcorn St. is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.
If the Braves win the tourney, Texas Sou. wins the bid.
                 
Sun Belt Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 UT-Arlington 24-7 vs. 8 Coastal Carolina 16-16 1:30 PM ESPN3
4 Texas St. 18-12 vs. 12 Louisiana-Monroe 9-23 3:00 PM ESPN3
2 Georgia St. 19-11 vs. 7 Louisiana-Lafayette 21-11 6:00 PM ESPN3
3 Georgia Southern 18-13 vs. 6 Troy 19-14 8:30 PM ESPN3
                 
Western Athletic Conference
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Cal St. Bakersfield 21-8 vs. 4 Utah Valley 15-15 9:00 PM ESPN3
2 New Mexico St. 26-5 vs. 3 Missouri-KC 17-15 11:30 PM ESPN3

NOTE: We are getting several inquiries about our Red-White-Blue ratings and why we do not post them for every game.  The computing of these ratings are quite laborious; it takes upwards of 7 to 8 minutes to do just one game, and even with five or six people retrieving the stats, it limits us to once per week and just the Power Conference games.  We are not issuing any this weekend, as we are spending all our extra time getting this information for the teams that have clinched bids and finished regular season play.

We will issue picks for all NCAA Tournament games, commencing with the First Four at Dayton.  We hope to have the First Four previews on this site by Monday Night Eastern Daylight Time.  

 

March 7, 2017

Conference Tournament Update–Sunday, March 7, 2017

New Dance Partners

UNC-Wilmington won the Colonial Athletic Association once again, and the Seahawks seem to have recovered from their February swoon that saw them lose four times.  UNCW will be a formidable seed, be it from the 11, 12, or 13 hole.  Coach Kevin Keatts has established himself as a future star in the business, destined to end up at a power conference school.

 

Steve Forbes is quickly developing into a top-flight coach as well.  The former assistant at Tennessee under Bruce Pearl guided his East Tennessee State Buccaneers to the Southern Conference title last night, and this ETSU team has a lot of the traits that the Volunteers possessed when Pearl and Forbes were in Knoxville.  The Bucs will be a hard team for a 3 or 4-seed to get past in the second round.

 

Iona repeats as conference champions, as the Gaels fought off Siena in a close game to win the MAAC title on the loser’s home court.  The Gaels will be a 14 or 15-seed, but they look like a one and done team this year.

Tickets Punched So Far

Ohio Valley Conference: JACKSONVILLE ST. (20-14)
Big South Conference: WINTHROP (26-6)
Missouri Valley Conference: WICHITA ST. (30-4)
Atlantic Sun Conference: FLORIDA GULF COAST (26-7)
Colonial Athletic Association: UNC-WILMINGTON (29-5)
Southern Conference: EAST TENNESSEE ST. (27-7)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: IONA (22-12)

 

Surprise Surprise–Last Place Team One Win Away From Dancing

The Horizon League had a couple of worthy teams this year that could have won an opening game in the NCAA Tournament.  Valparaiso looked like a Sweet 16 dark horse in early February, but the Crusaders lost a couple of games and then lost their version of Lebron and quickly exited the tournament in the opening game.  Oakland appeared to have an easy road to the Horizon championship, but the Grizzlies fell to a feisty Youngstown State team in their first game.

What’s left for the title game tonight?  Last-place and 23-loss Milwaukee has advanced to the championship game to face a Northern Kentucky team that picked the right time to play its best ball of the year.  The Norse ended the regular season on a roll and have parlayed that into where they are now one win away from making their first ever NCAA Tournament berth at the Division 1 level.  They were a dominant Division II team for more than a dozen years before moving up to the big time.

 

Today’s Tournament Schedule

Championship Games–NCAA Bid on the Line

Time (ET) Network Conference Team vs. Team
7:00 PM ESPN Horizon Northern Kentucky vs. Milwaukee
7:00 PM ESPN2 Northeast Mount St. Mary’s vs. St. Francis (PA)
9:00 PM ESPN2 Summit South Dakota St. vs. Omaha
9:00 PM ESPN West Coast Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s

Other Tournament Games

Time (ET) Network Conference Team vs. Team
12:00 PM ESPN2 ACC Clemson vs. North Carolina St.
2:00 PM ESPN2 ACC Wake Forest vs. Boston College
4:00 PM ESPN3 MEAC Delaware St. vs. Bethune-Cookman
5:35 PM Watch Big Sky Big Sky Portland St. vs. Northern Arizona
6:00 PM ESPN3 MEAC South Carolina St. vs. Florida A&M
7:00 PM ESPNU ACC Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
7:00 PM Radio Only SWAC Alcorn St. * vs. Mississippi Valley
8:30 PM Radio Only SWAC Texas Southern vs. Alabama St.
8:30 PM Radio Only SWAC Southern vs. Jackson St.
8:35 PM Watch Big Sky Big Sky Sacramento St. vs. Idaho St.
9:00 PM Radio Only SWAC Prairie View A&M vs. Grambling
11:05 PM Watch Big Sky Big Sky Montana St. vs. Southern Utah

* Alcorn State is ineligible for postseason play, and if the Braves win the SWAC Tournament, regular season champion Texas Southern will get the automatic bid.

 

The Bubble

Keep an eye on the ACC Tournament opening round in Brooklyn.  All three games involve teams on the Bubble–Clemson plays in the first game, Wake Forest plays in the second game, and Georgia Tech plays in the third game.  All three must win today to stay on the Bubble, but a win will not get any of the three into the field.  They all need multiple wins to earn at-large bids.

 

Game of the Night

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s face off for a third time tonight, when the two Pacific powers meet in the West Coast Conference Tournament Championship Game yet again.  Gonzaga has not looked like a Final Four team since losing to BYU in their regular season finale, while SMC looks like a team ready to make a long run in the NCAA Tournament with a stifling defense and improving offense.  If SMC pulls the upset tonight, Gonzaga could fall to a 2-seed, allowing Kentucky or Oregon to move up to a 1-seed.  SMC could move up to a 5 or even 4-seed with a win tongiht.

 

 

 

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