The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 17, 2014

PiRate Ratings Top 30 Bracketologists Report

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:13 am

Two weeks from today, the first postseason conference tournament will swing into action.  No, it will not be the big power conferences, but even an opening round game in a one-bid league is enough to stir up dance fever.

 

Selection Sunday is less than a month away, so it is time to break out the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology report.

 

We do not have a Bracketologist on staff here.  We concentrate on Bracketnomics, the study of how to pick winners in the bracket based on reverse-engineered statistical data of past Final Four participants with an emphasis on the most recent successes.

 

This year, our Bracketnomics’ data has been drastically changed to meet the changes in the way the game has been played in recent years.  Be sure to look for our Bracketnomics primer on Selection Sunday.

 

For Bracketology, we search for little known bloggers (like us) who actually have a history of better forecasting than the big named guys like Lunardi, Palm, and The USA Today.  Yes, there are math geniuses that forecast the field of 68 with more accuracy than the guys you probably know.

 

How do we know this?  It is the same thing as the college and NFL football experts.  You may know about Sagarin and Dunkel, but there are a couple dozen (including the PiRate Ratings) with a long history of outperforming these two major computer rankings.

 

We have chosen 30 little known (nationally) Bracketologists with better predictive histories than the big guys and put them together into what we here call the “Bracket Braintrust.”

 

From this list, we then assign the competing teams one of five grades: Lock, Safe, Bubble—In, Bubble, and Bubble—Out.  “Lock” means the team is guaranteed of making the tournament even if they lose the rest of their games.  “Safe” means the team is safely in the tournament unless it totally collapses (like a 20-5 ACC team losing its last seven games to finish 20-12).  “Bubble—In” means this team is on the bubble, but if the season ended today, they would be in the tournament.  “Bubble” means this team is on the bubble and would be one of the last 4-8 out if the tournament began today.  “Bubble—Out” means the team is on the bubble, but if the season ended today, they would not be in the tournament, and they need multiple teams in front of them to fall back while they win big at the end.  We use the initials, “L, S, Bi, B, and Bo” in our conference-by-conference look.

 

Let’s Start With the One-Bid Leagues.  No matter which team wins these conference tournaments, only one team from each league will get a bid.  This does not include conferences like the MVC, where if Wichita State wins the automatic bid, the Valley will be a one-bid league.

 

We list the top contenders and a possible dark horse candidate for each of these leagues.

 

One-Bid Leagues (21)

 

American East

Vermont 11-1/17-9

Stony Brook 10-2/18-8

Albany 7-6/13-13

 

Vermont lost by one point at Duke and owns a win over Yale.

 

Atlantic Sun

Mercer 12-2/21-6

Florida Gulf Coast 11-3/17-10

East Tennessee 9-6/16-12

 

Mercer won at Ole Miss and played well in losses at Texas and Oklahoma.  FGCU has no impressive wins this year.

 

Big Sky

Weber St. 11-2/14-7

Northern Colorado 9-5/15-8

 

Northern Colorado won at Kansas St.  The winner here faces a probably trip to Dayton for the opening round.

 

Big South

Coastal Carolina 9-3/16-10

V M I  8-4/15-10

High Point 7-4/11-13

Radford 7-5/17-10

Winthrop 7-5/14-11

Gardner-Webb 7-5/14-13

UNC-Asheville 7-5/13-13

 

You can see this league is quite balanced.  Of these teams, VMI might be the toughest matchup for an opponent, because the Keydets play an unorthodox style of up-tempo ball.  There are no impressive wins here to report, and this looks like a possible opening round conference.

 

Big West

UC-Irvine 8-2/17-9

UCSB 7-3/16-7

Hawaii 7-4/18-7

Long Beach St. 7-4/11-14

 

UCI won at Washington, and UCSB beat California at home.  This league will avoid the opening round unless an upset winner takes the bid.

 

Colonial

Delaware 11-0/19-7

Towson 8-3/17-9

William & Mary 7-4/15-9

 

The Blue Hens lost close games at Villanova, Ohio St., and Richmond, but they have no top 100 wins, so they are not under consideration for an at-large bid.  The nation will get a chance to see one of the top three-men scoring machines work if Delaware wins the bid.  Devon Saddler (20.4), Davon Usher (19.4), and Jarivs Threatt (17.9) combine for 57.7 points per game.

 

Conference USA

Louisiana Tech 9-2/21-5 (B)

UTEP 9-2/19-7 (Bo)

Middle Tennessee 9-2/19-7

Southern Miss. 8-3/21-5

Tulsa 8-3/13-12

 

Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, and UTEP must all be considered as “Bo” teams if they lose in the CUSA finals.  As of today, none of this group has done enough to qualify as an at-large team.  Southern Miss’s best win was at North Dakota St., and the Selection Committee may not see that as a big win.  Louisiana Tech won at Oklahoma, but the Bulldogs have a non-conference strength of schedule in the 280’s.  We have LT on the Bubble as of today, but for the Bulldogs to get in as an at-large, it will take several teams above them playing themselves out, because LT has little chance of leapfrogging.  We have UTEP far back in the Bubble—Out teams.

 

Horizon

Green Bay 11-2/21-5

Cleveland St. 9-4/18-10

Valparaiso 8-4/16-11

 

Green Bay beat Virginia and narrowly lost to Wisconsin, so the Phoenix can compete in the round of 64 and possibly be an upset team.

 

Cleveland State stayed close at Rupp Arena against Kentucky.

 

Ivy

Harvard 7-1/20-4

Yale 7-1/13-9

 

Yale won at Harvard, but even if they sweep the Crimson, a tie would still bring a tiebreaker.  If Yale wins the league and automatic bid, Harvard would have a mild argument as an at-large, but we just don’t see the Ivy getting two teams.  Harvard’s top win is a neutral site game over Green Bay.

 

Mid-American

Toledo 9-3/21-4

Akron 9-3/17-8

Western Michigan 9-3/16-8

Ohio 8-4/18-7

Buffalo 8-4/14-8

 

Poor strengths of schedule and lack of quality wins makes this a one-bid league again.  The once proud MAC is still not back to where it once was.

 

Metro Atlantic

Iona 14-2/17-8

Manhattan 12-4/19-6

Quinnipiac 12-4/17-8

Canisius 12-4/18-9

 

Iona’s out of conference schedule was rather strong, but the Gaels did not win any of these games.

 

Mideastern Athletic

UNC-Central 11-1/19-5

Norfolk St. 8-3/14-11

Morgan St. 7-3/9-13

Hampton 9-4/14-11

 

UNC-Central’s upset win over North Carolina St. is enough to avoid the opening round if the Eagles win the MEAC Tournament.  UNCC played well in losses to Wichita St., Cincinnati, and Maryland.

 

Northeast

Robert Morris 11-1/16-11

Bryant 8-3/16-10

Wagner 7-4/13-11

 

This looks like an Opening Round game conference.  RMU has no top 100 wins.

 

Ohio Valley

Belmont 11-2/20-8

Murray St. 11-2/16-9

Morehead St. 9-3/18-9

Eastern Kentucky 8-5/18-9

 

Belmont has been close before in the NCAA Tournament, losing to Duke by one.  This year, the Bruins won at North Carolina and have close losses to Kentucky, VCU, and Richmond.

 

Patriot

Boston U. 12-2/19-8

American 11-3/15-10

Holy Cross 10-4/16-10

 

Boston U won at Maryland, but that is not an overly impressive win this season—just enough to avoid a trip to Dayton if the Terriers get the bid.

 

Southern

Davidson 11-1/15-11

Chattanooga 10-2/16-11

Wofford 9-3/15-10

Elon 8-3/15-11

Western Carolina 8-4/15-12

 

This is not a glory year for SoCon basketball.  However, the conference tournament should be quite exciting with many nail-biters.

 

Southland

Stephen F. Austin 13-0/24-2

Sam Houston 10-3/18-7

Texas A&M-Corpus Christie 10-4/13-14

 

SFA has done nothing to qualify for at-large status, but the Lumberjacks should breeze through to the automatic bid.  They swept Sam Houston in the regular season.  The only conference team to give SFA trouble was Incarnate Word, and they are ineligible as a transitioning team.

 

Summit

North Dakota St. 9-2/20-6

South Dakota St. 8-3/16-10

I P F W  7-4/19-9

 

South Dakota St. was a better upset win possibility in last year’s tournament than NDSU is this year, and the Jackrabbits bowed quickly against Michigan.

 

Sun Belt

Georgia St. 10-1/17-7

Western Kentucky 9-4/17-9

UL-Lafayette 8-5/17-9

 

Not what it once was due to teams moving to better conferences, the SBC is just strong enough to muscle up to a 15-seed if GSU wins the bid.

 

Southwestern Athletic

Southern 10-2/14-11

Alabama St. 8-4/14-9

 

The SWAC is an improving league, but the 2014 champion is still more than likely headed to Dayton for the opening round.  Southern lost by 14 at Florida and were never really in contention, but forward Calvin Godfrey showed he can play with the big guys.

 

Western Athletic

Utah Valley 9-2/15-9

New Mexico St. 9-3/20-8

 

With Grand Canyon ineligible due to the transition process to D1, Utah Valley and New Mexico St. are the only two WAC teams capable of avoiding Dayton and the opening round.  This league has fallen more than any other due to the mass defections to other conferences.

 

NMSU’s RPI is around 80, but the Aggies did beat New Mexico earlier this year.

 

The Missouri Valley Conference and The West Coast Conference—One or Two-Bid Leagues

 

Missouri Valley

Wichita St. 14-0/27-0 (L)

Indiana St. 11-3/20-6

Missouri St. 7-7/17-9

 

Wichita St. should run the table and enter the NCAA Tournament at 35-0, but if the Shockers fall in the MVC Tournament, some big team’s bubble will burst, because this will then become a two-bid league.

 

West Coast

Gonzaga 13-1/23-4 (L)

B Y U  10-5/18-10 (B)

St. Mary’s 9-5/19-8 (Bo)

 

Gonzaga is a lock for the tournament, but BYU is still on the outside looking in.  For now, we are giving this league just one team, bringing the total of teams in the field to this point to 23.

 

Multiple Bid Leagues (45)

 

As of today, we show these leagues combining to produce 45 total bids.  The teams listed as “Bi” (Bubble—In) would be in the Tournament if today was Selection Sunday, but they are in no way secure bids.

 

There is quality at the top, as the best 20 teams are quite good this year.  After the top 20, the rest of the field looks to be far down from past years.  Teams as low as second to last in the Big 12 would be considered in the field if today was Selection Sunday, and that is utterly ridiculous.

 

It is our opinion that the top eight leagues should get 24 bids (3 per conference), and the rest of the nation should get eight bids total, making this a 32-team field.  Expand the College Insider’s Tournament for the smaller conference teams and bring the NIT back to a more prestigious event.

 

Legend: (L) = Lock; (S) = Safe; (Bi) = Bubble—In; (B)= Bubble; (Bo)=Bubble—Out.  The difference between (B) and (Bo) is that the (B) are among the next 8 out, whereas the (Bo) are more than 8 out.  The (Bi) are among the last 8 in.

 

 

Atlantic Coast

Syracuse 12-0/25-0 (L)

Virginia 12-1/21-5 (L)

Duke 9-3/20-5 (L)

North Carolina 7-4/17-7 (S)

Pittsburgh 8-5/20-6 (S)

North Carolina St. 6-6/16-9 (Bo)

Clemson 6-6/15-9 (Bo)

Florida St. 6-7/15-10 (B)

 

American Athletic

Cincinnati 12-1/23-3 (L)

Louisville 10-2/21-4 (L)

SMU 9-4/20-6 (S)

Connecticut 8-4/20-5 (S)

Memphis 8-4/19-6 (S)

 

Atlantic 10

St. Louis 10-0/23-2 (S)

V C U  8-3/20-6 (S)

St. Joseph’s 7-3/17-7 (Bi)

Richmond 7-3/17-8 (Bo)

Massachusetts 7-4/20-5 (S)

George Washington 7-4/19-6 (S)

Dayton 5-5/17-8 (B)

 

Big 12

Kansas 10-2/19-6 (L)

Texas 9-3/20-5 (L)

Oklahoma 8-5/19-7 (S)

Iowa St. 7-5/19-5 (S)

Kansas St. 7-5/17-8 (S)

West Virginia 7-6/15-11 (B)

Texas Tech 5-7/13-12 (Bo)

Baylor 4-8/16-9 (B)

Oklahoma St. 4-8/16-9 (Bi)

 

Big East

Creighton 11-2/21-4 (L)

Villanova 10-2/22-3 (L)

Xavier 7-5/17-8 (S)

Marquette 7-5/15-10 (Bo)

Providence 7-6/17-9 (Bi)

St. John’s 7-6/17-9 (Bo)

Georgetown 6-7/15-10 (Bi)

 

Big Ten

Michigan St. 10-3/21-5 (L)

Michigan 10-3/18-7 (L)

Iowa 8-4/19-6 (S)

Wisconsin 8-5/21-5 (L)

Ohio St. 7-6/20-6 (S)

Nebraska 6-6/14-10 (Bo)

Minnesota 6-7/17-9 (Bi)

 

Mountain West

San Diego St. 11-1/22-2 (L)

New Mexico 10-2/19-5 (S)

 

Pac-12

Arizona 10-2/23-2 (L)

U C L A  9-3/20-5 (S)

Arizona St. 8-4/19-6 (S)

California 8-4/17-8 (S)

Colorado 8-5/19-7 (S)

Stanford 7-5/16-8 (Bi)

Utah 6-7/17-8 (Bo)

Washington 6-7/14-12 (Bo)

Oregon St. 5-7/13-11 (Bo)

Oregon 4-8/16-8 (Bi)

 

Southeastern

Florida 12-0/23-2 (L)

Kentucky 9-3/19-6 (L)
Georgia 8-4/14-10 (Bo)

Ole Miss 7-5/16-9 (Bo)

Missouri 6-6/18-7 (Bi)

L S U  6-6/15-9 (B)

Tennessee 6-6/15-10 (Bi)

 

If The Season Ended Today

Seed

Team

Conference

 

1

Florida

SEC

 

1

Syracuse

ACC

 

1

Arizona

Pac-12

 

1

Wichita St.

Missouri Valley

 

2

Villanova

Big East

 

2

Kansas

Big 12

 

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

 

2

Duke

ACC

 

3

Michigan

Big Ten

 

3

Creighton

Big East

 

3

Wisconsin

Big Ten

 

3

Iowa St.

Big 12

 

4

San Diego St.

Mountain West

 

4

Cincinnati

American

 

4

Virginia

ACC

 

4

St. Louis

Atlantic 10

 

5

Iowa

Big Ten

 

5

Kentucky

SEC

 

5

Louisville

American

 

5

Texas

Big 12

 

6

U C L A

Pac-12

 

6

Ohio St.

Big Ten

 

6

Connecticut

American

 

6

Oklahoma

Big 12

 

7

North Carolina

ACC

 

7

Massachusetts

Atlantic 10

 

7

Gonzaga

West Coast

 

7

Memphis

American

 

8

Kansas St.

Big 12

 

8

Arizona St.

Pac-12

 

8

V C U

Atlantic 10

 

8

Pittsburgh

ACC

 

9

S M U

American

 

9

New Mexico

Mountain West

 

9

Colorado

Pac-12

 

9

Oklahoma St.

Big 12

 

10

George Washington

Atlantic 10

 

10

Stanford

Pac-12

 

10

California

Pac-12

 

10

Xavier

Big East

 

11

Minnesota

Big Ten

 

11

Missouri

SEC

 

11

Tennessee

SEC

 

11

Harvard

Ivy

 

12

Green Bay

Horizon

 

12

Toledo

Mid-American

 

12

Georgetown

Big East

1st Rd

12

St. Joseph’s

Atlantic 10

1st Rd

12

Providence

Big East

1st Rd

12

Oregon

Pac-12

1st Rd

13

Stephen F. Austin

Southland

 

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

 

13

North Dakota St.

Summit

 

13

Delaware

Colonial

 

14

Mercer

Atlantic Sun

 

14

Iona

Metro Atlantic

 

14

Vermont

America East

 

14

Georgia St.

Sun Belt

 

15

UNC-Central

MEAC

 

15

Boston U.

Patriot

 

15

Southern Miss.

CUSA

 

15

U C S B

Big West

 

16

Davidson

Southern

 

16

Southern U.

SWAC

 

16

Weber St.

Big Sky

1st Rd

16

Robert Morris

Northeast

1st Rd

16

Coastal Carolina

Big South

1st Rd

16

Utah Valley

WAC

1st Rd

 

Last Eight Bubble Teams On the Inside For Now (Oregon is last team in today)

Oregon

Providence

St. Joseph’s

Georgetown

Tennessee

Missouri

Minnesota

Xavier

 

Top Eight Bubble Teams On the Outside, Looking In (Richmond is first team out today)

Richmond

B Y U

Louisiana Tech

Florida St.

Baylor

Dayton

L S U

West Virginia

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February 11, 2014

College Basketball–Conference Tournaments Primer

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , — piratings @ 2:51 pm

We normally kick off our NCAA Men’s Basketball coverage with a breakdown of the Bracketbuster games, but the Bracketbuster weekend is no more.  So, we have chosen today to begin putting our slant on bracketology.

 

We have tweaked our Bracketnomics’ formula, and when we get closer to Big Dance time, we will explain our changes as well as why we made changes.  There are numerous ratings’ formulas out there, including the major four factors, but those factors are not as reliable in NCAA Tournament play as they are in regular season play, so if you follow this type of rating, you will be barking up the wrong tree after March 10.

 

The first conference tournaments begin in just 20 days, so we will start by giving you a preview on each conference tournament.

 

Conference: America East

Site: SEFCU Arena, Guilderland, NY (Greater Albany)

Date: March 8-9, 15

Teams in Tournament: 8 (Massachusetts-Lowell Not Eligible)

Bracket Type: Standard (1-8/4-5/2-7/3-6)

 

Conference: American Athletic

Site: The Fed Ex Forum, Memphis, TN

Date: March 12-15

Teams in Tournament: 10

Bracket Type: Standard (7-10, 8-9, 1-7-10, 4-5 2-8-9, 3-6)

 

Conference: Atlantic 10

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Date: March 12-16

Teams in Tournament: 13

Bracket Type: Standard (12-13, 5-12-13, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5-12-13, 2-7-10, 3-6-11)

 

Conference: Atlantic Coast

Site: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC

Date: March 12-16

Teams in Tournament: 15

Bracket Type: 15 to 12 to 8 (10-15, 11-14, 12-13, 5-12-13, 6-11-14, 7-10-15, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5-12-13, 2-7-10-15, 3-6-11-14)

 

Conference: Atlantic Sun

Site: All Games Played at home floor of higher seed

Date: March 4, 6, & 9

Teams in Tournament: 8 (Northern Kentucky Not Eligible)

Bracket Type: Standard (8@1, 7@2, 6@3, 5@4)

 

Conference: Big 12

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Date: March 12-15

Teams in Tournament: 10

Bracket Type: Standard (7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5, 2-7-10, 3-6)

 

Conference: Big East

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Date: March 12-15

Teams in Tournament: 10

Bracket Type: Standard (7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5, 2-7-10, 3-6)

 

Conference: Big Sky

Site: At Home Floor of Regular Season Champion

Date: March 14-16

Teams in Tournament: 7

Bracket Type: Re-Seeded After Each Round (2-7, 3-6, 4-5, 1-bye and plays lowest seeded 1st round winner)

 

Conference: Big South

Site: HTC Center, Conway, SC (Coastal Carolina)

Date: March 5, 7-9

Teams in Tournament: 12

Bracket Type: Standard Divisional (3N-6S, 4N-5S, 3S-6N, 4S-5N, 1N-4S-5N, 2S-3N-6S, 1S-4N-5S, 2N-3S-6N)

 

Conference: Big Ten

Site: Banker’s Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

Date: March 13-16

Teams in Tournament: 12

Bracket Type: Standard (5-12, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5-12, 2-7-10, 3-6-11)

 

Conference: Big West

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Date: March 13-15

Teams in Tournament: 8

Bracket Type: Standard (1-8, 4-5, 2-7, 3-6)

 

Conference: Colonial Athletic

Site: Baltimore Arena, Baltimore, MD

Date: March 7-10

Teams in Tournament: 9

Bracket Type: Standard (8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5, 2-7, 3-6)

 

Conference: Conference USA

Site: Don Haskins Center, El Paso, TX

Date: March 11-15

Teams in Tournament: 15 (Florida Int’l Not eligible)

Bracket Type: 15 to 12 to 8 (10-15, 11-14, 12-13, 5-12-13, 6-11-14, 7-10-15, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5-12-13, 2-7-10-15, 3-6-11-14)

 

Conference: Horizon League

Site: First Round at Higher Seed, Quarterfinals and Semifinals at #1 Seed, Championship at Higher Seed

Date: March 4, 7, 8, & 11

Teams in Tournament: 9

Bracket Type: 9 to 6 to 4 (4-9, 5-8, 6-7, 3-6-7, 4-9-5-8, 1-4-9-5-8, 2-3-6-7)

 

Conference: Ivy League

Site: No Tournament—Regular Season Champion Receives Automatic Bid

Date: If Two Teams Are Tied, the Playoff would be held March 10 or 11

Teams in Tournament: N/A

Bracket Type: N/A

 

Conference: Metro Atlantic Athletic

Site: Mass Mutual Center, Springfield, MA

Date: March 6, 8-10

Teams in Tournament: 11

Bracket Type: Standard (6-11, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5, 2-7-10, 3-6-11)

 

Conference: Mid-American

Site: First Round at Higher Seed, Rest at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH)

Date: March 10, 12-15

Teams in Tournament: 12 (teams seeded 1-12 regardless of which division they are in)

Bracket Type: Standard (5-12, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5-12, 2-7-10, 3-6-11)

 

Conference: Mid-Eastern Athletic

Site: Norfolk Scope, Norfolk, VA

Date: March 10-13

Teams in Tournament: 13

Bracket Type: Standard (4-13, 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-13-5-12, 2-7-10, 3-6-11)

 

Conference: Missouri Valley (Arch Madness)

Site: Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO

Date: March 6-9

Teams in Tournament: 10

Bracket Type: Standard (7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5, 2-7-10, 3-6)

 

Conference: Mountain West

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Date: March 12-15

Teams in Tournament: 11

Bracket Type: Standard (6-11, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5, 2-7-10, 3-6-11)

 

Conference: Northeast

Site: All Games Played at Higher Seed

Date: March 5, 8, & 11

Teams in Tournament: 8

Bracket Type: Standard (8@1, 5@4, 7@2, 6@3)

 

Conference: Ohio Valley

Site: Municipal Auditorium (Nashville, TN)

Date: March 5-8

Teams in Tournament: 8

Bracket Type: 8 to 6 to 4 (5-8, 6-7, 4-5-8, 3-6-7, 1-4-5-8, 2-3-6-7)

 

Conference: Pac-12

Site: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Date: March 12-15

Teams in Tournament: 12

Bracket Type: Standard (5-12, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5-12, 2-7-10, 3-6-11)

 

Conference: Patriot League

Site: All Games Played at Higher Seed

Date: March 3, 5, 8, & 12

Teams in Tournament: 10

Bracket Type: Standard (10@7, 9@8, 8-9@1, 5@4 7-10@2, 6@3)

 

Conference: Southeastern

Site: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA

Date: March 12-16

Teams in Tournament: 14

Bracket Type: 14 to 12 to 8 (11-14, 12-13, 5-12-13, 6-11-14, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5-12-13, 2-7-10, 3-6-11-14)

 

Conference: Southern

Site: U.S. Cellular Center, Asheville, NC

Date: March 7-10

Teams in Tournament: 11

Bracket Type: Standard (6-11, 7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5, 2-7-10, 3-6-11)

 

Conference: Southland

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX (Greater Houston)

Date: March 12, 14-16

Teams in Tournament: 8 (Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, & New Orleans Not Eligible)

Bracket Type: 8 to 6 to 4 (5-8, 6-7, 4-5-8, 3-6-7, 1-4-5-8, 2-3-6-7)

 

Conference: Southwestern Athletic

Site: Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Date: March 13-16

Teams in Tournament: 7 (UA-Pine Bluff, Grambling, & Mississippi Valley St. are ineligible)

Bracket Type: Standard (2-7, 3-6, 4-5, 1-4-5, 2-7-3-6)

 

Conference: Summit League

Site: Sioux Falls Arena, Sioux Falls, SD

Date: March 8-11

Teams in Tournament: 7 (Omaha Not Eligible)

Bracket Type: Standard (2-7, 3-6, 4-5, 1-4-5, 2-7-3-6)

 

Conference: Sun Belt

Site: Lakefront Arena (New Orleans, LA)

Date: March 13-16

Teams in Tournament: 8

Bracket Type: 8 to 6 to 4 (5-8, 6-7, 4-5-8, 3-6-7, 1-4-5-8, 2-3-6-7)

 

Conference: West Coast

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Date: March 6, 8, 10-11

Teams in Tournament: 10

Bracket Type: Standard (7-10, 8-9, 1-8-9, 4-5, 2-7-10, 3-6)

 

Conference: Western Athletic

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Date: March 13-15

Teams in Tournament: 8 (Grand Canyon not eligible)

Bracket Type: Standard (1-8, 4-5, 2-7, 3-6)

 

December 28, 2013

2013-14 NCAA Football Computer Simulation Playoffs–Quarterfinals

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

Today’s quarterfinal games look like this:

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

 

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

We had our first major upset in the tournament, as the Gamecocks came from behind in the fourth quarter thanks to an incredible defensive effort.

 

Final Score: South Carolina 18   Florida St. 16

 

FSU

Team

Scar

 

 

 

18

FD

15

 

 

 

31-84

Rushing

42-161

 

 

 

214

Passing

146

 

 

 

19-37-2

Passes

13-21-0

 

 

 

68

Play

63

 

 

 

298

Yards

307

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

FSU

7

6

3

0

16

Scar

0

3

3

12

18

 

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

In a match of the two teams headed to the Rose Bowl in reality, the Cardinal dominated the game for four quarters to advance to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Stanford 20  Michigan St. 10

 

Stan

Team

MSU

 

 

 

16

FD

12

 

 

 

39-144

Rushing

33-128

 

 

 

191

Passing

152

 

 

 

17-27-0

Passes

16-28-1

 

 

 

66

Play

61

 

 

 

335

Yards

280

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Stan

3

3

7

7

20

MSU

0

0

10

0

10

 

 

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

In a nip and tuck offensive explosion, the Ducks wiped out the other top seed, preventing the actual national championship contenders from advancing to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Oregon 52  Auburn 49

 

Aub

Team

Ore

 

 

 

26

FD

23

 

 

 

55-297

Rushing

43-224

 

 

 

223

Passing

309

 

 

 

19-29-1

Passes

21-34-0

 

 

 

84

Play

77

 

 

 

520

Yards

533

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Aub

14

21

7

7

49

Ore

10

14

21

7

52

 

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

Alabama mounted a huge 2nd half comeback to force overtime, but a missed extra point cost the Tide and the Tigers advanced to the semis.

 

Final Score: Missouri 24 Alabama 23 ot

 

Ala

Team

Mo

 

 

 

 

16

FD

21

 

 

 

 

34-126

Rushing

55-211

 

 

 

 

233

Passing

160

 

 

 

 

19-30-0

Passes

14-22-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

77

 

 

 

 

359

Yards

371

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Ala

0

3

0

14

6

23

MO

0

7

10

0

7

24

 

The Semifinal Round is now set.  Here are your Final Four Match-ups:

 

#4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

#6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

In the years we have simulated these playoffs, this is the lowest total of seeded teams ever to make the semifinals. Check back on New Year’s Eve to see which two teams advance to the 2014 Simper Bowl.

August 15, 2013

2013 Sunbelt Conference Football Preview

2013 Sunbelt Conference Preview

 

Once again, the Sunbelt Conference kicks off our PiRate Ratings Previews for a new college football season.  We preview the conferences in reverse order of overall league average, and the SBC brings up the rear once again.  Whereas in past seasons, this league was not that far behind its non-automatic-qualifying conference brethren, changes due to defections and new additions have damaged the league.

New Teams: Georgia State and Texas State

Departed Teams: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, North Texas

2014 Additions: New Mexico St. and Idaho return to the league they left after 2003, while FCS teams Appalachian St. and Georgia Southern move to FBS

2014 Departures: Western Kentucky moves to CUSA

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana—Monroe

0-0

0-0

96.8

93.0

98.0

Arkansas St.

0-0

0-0

93.6

87.6

93.5

Louisiana—Lafayette

0-0

0-0

92.4

91.6

92.2

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-0

89.5

93.5

90.3

Troy

0-0

0-0

85.5

87.0

87.1

Texas St.

0-0

0-0

80.6

87.8

79.9

South Alabama

0-0

0-0

79.9

82.7

80.5

Georgia St.

0-0

0-0

60.7

71.5

62.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.9

86.8

85.5

 

Official Sunbelt Media Poll

 

     

Pos.

Team

Points

1st Place

 

     

1 (tie)

Louisiana-Lafayette

57

4

 

     

1 (tie)

Louisiana-Monroe

57

2

 

     

3

Arkansas St.

45

2

 

     

4

Western Kentucky

44

0

 

     

5

Troy

35

0

 

     

6

Texas St.

23

0

 

     

7

South Alabama

19

0

 

     

8

Georgia St.

8

0

 

 

 

 

Official Pre-season All-Sunbelt Conference Team

Offense
Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)
David Oku (Arkansas State, Sr., RB)
Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., RB)
J.D. McKissic (Arkansas State, So., WR)
Je’Ron Hamm (ULM, Sr., WR)
Eric Thomas (Troy, Sr. WR)
Wes Saxton (South Alabama, Jr., TE)
Bryce Giddens (Arkansas State, So., OL)
Andre Huval (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., OL)
Josh Allen (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., OL)
Terrence Jones (Troy, Jr., OL)
Sean Conway (WKU, Sr., OL)
 
Defense
Ryan Carrethers (Arkansas State, Sr., DL)
Christian Ringo (Louisiana-Lafayette, Jr., DL)
Kentarius Caldwell (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DL)
Alex Page (South Alabama, Sr., DL)
Qushaun Lee (Arkansas State, Jr., LB)
Justin Anderson (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., LB)
Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)
Sterling Young (Arkansas State, Jr., DB)
Isaiah Newsome (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DB)
Tyrell Pearson (South Alabama, Sr., DB)
Jonathan Dowling (WKU, Sr., DB)
 
Special Teams
Brian Davis (Arkansas State, Sr., K)
Will Scott (Troy, Sr., P)
Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., Return Specialist)
 
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year
Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)
 
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year
Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100    A+

86-92      A

79-85      A-

72-78      B+

65-71      B

58-64      B-

51-57      C+

44-50      C

37-43      C-

30-36      D

0-29        F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team

UL-Monroe Warhawks

             
Head Coach

Todd Berry

             
Colors

Maroon & Gold

             
City

Monroe, LA

             
2012 Record            
Conference

6-2

Overall

8-5

             
Grades            
Run Offense

57

Pass Offense

76

Run Defense

62

Pass Defense

51

             
Ratings              
PiRate

96.8

Mean

93.0

Bias

98.0

             
Rankings              
PiRate

76

Mean

90

Bias

72

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-1

Overall

8-4

Team

Arkansas State Red Wolves

             
Head Coach

Bryan Harsin

             
Colors

Scarlet & Black

             
City

Jonesboro, AR

             
2012 Record            
Conference

7-1

Overall

10-3

             
Grades            
Run Offense

67

Pass Offense

67

Run Defense

52

Pass Defense

49

             
Ratings              
PiRate

93.6

Mean

87.6

Bias

93.5

             
Rankings              
PiRate

83

Mean

108

Bias

84

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-1

Overall

9-3

Team

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

             
Head Coach

Mark Hudspeth

             
Colors

Vermillion and White

             
City

Lafayette, LA

             
2012 Record            
Conference

6-2

Overall

9-4

             
Grades            
Run Offense

67

Pass Offense

71

Run Defense

49

Pass Defense

43

             
Ratings              
PiRate

92.4

Mean

91.6

Bias

92.2

             
Rankings              
PiRate

87

Mean

98

Bias

88

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-2

Overall

8-4

Team

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

             
Head Coach

Bobby Petrino

             
Colors

Red and White

             
City

Bowling Green, KY

             
2012 Record            
Conference

4-4

Overall

7-6

             
Grades            
Run Offense

53

Pass Offense

60

Run Defense

48

Pass Defense

55

             
Ratings              
PiRate

89.5

Mean

93.5

Bias

90.3

             
Rankings              
PiRate

93

Mean

89

Bias

93

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-2

Overall

8-4

Team

Troy Trojans

             
Head Coach

Larry Blakeney

             
Colors

Red, Black, and Gray

             
City

Troy, AL

             
2012 Record            
Conference

3-5

Overall

5-7

             
Grades            
Run Offense

36

Pass Offense

72

Run Defense

41

Pass Defense

47

             
Ratings              
PiRate

85.5

Mean

87.0

Bias

87.1

             
Rankings              
PiRate

106

Mean

109

Bias

99

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-4

Overall

4-8

Team

Texas State Bobcats

             
Head Coach

Dennis Franchione

             
Colors

Maroon and Gold

             
City

San Marcos, TX

             
2012 Record            
Conference

2-4 (in WAC)

Overall

4-8

             
Grades            
Run Offense

52

Pass Offense

38

Run Defense

57

Pass Defense

40

             
Ratings              
PiRate

80.6

Mean

87.8

Bias

79.9

             
Rankings              
PiRate

117

Mean

106

Bias

118

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-5

Overall

4-8

Team

South Alabama Jaguars

             
Head Coach

Joey Jones

             
Colors

Red, White, and Blue

             
City

Mobile, AL

             
2012 Record            
Conference

1-7

Overall

2-11

             
Grades            
Run Offense

50

Pass Offense

46

Run Defense

46

Pass Defense

39

             
Ratings              
PiRate

79.9

Mean

82.7

Bias

80.5

             
Rankings              
PiRate

118

Mean

119

Bias

116

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-6

Overall

2-10

Team

Georgia State Panthers

             
Head Coach

Trent Miles

             
Colors

Royal Blue and White

             
City

Atlanta

             
2012 Record            
Conference

1-7 (in FCS:Colonial Athletic)

Overall

1-10

             
Grades            
Run Offense

17

Pass Offense

35

Run Defense

31

Pass Defense

19

             
Ratings              
PiRate

60.7

Mean

71.5

Bias

62.1

             
Rankings              
PiRate

125

Mean

125

Bias

125

               
Prediction              
Conference

0-7

Overall

0-12

June 24, 2013

The Better Approach to the NCAA Playoffs

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 am

100_2789

The NCAA Football Playoff is just two seasons away from becoming a reality.  This is the final season for the BCS Bowl system formula to select two teams to play for the National Championship.

In more years than not, the two teams perceived to be the best two played in the National Championship Game, but was that really the case?

There were seasons where one or more teams appeared to be the class of the country, only to find that another team was actually better, by a large amount in some seasons.

The Southeastern Conference has dominated the National Championship in the 21st Century, and in one of those rare occasions where the SEC was snubbed, an undefeated team might have been better than one of the two teams playing in the title game.  Witnessing all the seasons where a one-loss SEC team pounded its opponent in the championship contest makes one wonder if Auburn might have been the best team in 2004, and at least more deserving than Oklahoma for playing in the title game.

Just because the championship has been expanded by adding two more teams, there is no reason to believe that the NCAA has fixed its problems.  Look at BoiseState in 2006 and 2009.  Look at TCU in 2010.  Look at Utah in 2004 and 2008.  We really cannot state that any of these five undefeated teams did not deserve to be in the Championship Game.

Take 2009.  Both BoiseState and TCU ran the table in the regular season.  They were denied a spot in the title game based on schedule strength.  This is a major flaw that is not being addressed by the NCAA.  How do we know that had either of these teams played for the title that they would have beaten Alabama that year.

Schedule strength is a joke when determining who deserves to play for the national title.  As an example, let’s say that the entire 1st and 2nd team All-Americans were juniors in eligibility but seniors as students.  Now, let’s say that every one of the 22 position players and special teams players decided to transfer to Eastern Michigan.

It would be obvious that Eastern Michigan would be the best team in the nation by far, maybe even a little better than the weakest NFL teams.  EMU would easily go 12-0 and then run all over the MAC East winner in the Conference Championship Game.

Now, let’s say that the Eagles played Illinois State, Idaho, Army, and South Alabama outside of the MAC.  Add games with Akron, U Mass, Miami of Ohio, from the East with the five MAC West teams, and their strength of schedule might be around #120.  This 13-0 team might have a chance at playing as the last selected BCS Bowl team, but the Eagles would have zero chance to play for the championship.  Yet, we all would know that they were the best college team since Army in 1945!  What a travesty to deny this best team in modern football a chance to play for the title!  Do we deny the Baltimore Ravens a chance to get to the Super Bowl, if their schedule is weaker than New England’s?  Ask yourself this: how many times in the last 20 years has the team with the best record made it to the Super Bowl?

The NFL is the number one sports league in the world for a reason.  There is no selection committee choosing who gets into the NFL playoffs.  Every fan in the world can see which teams are in the playoffs without a fancy computer formula that has needed to be tweaked multiple times when it was easy to tell that the most deserving teams did not always receive an invitation.

The NCAA needs to set up a similar system to where all fans can know for sure which teams will make the playoffs.  Rather than choose the representatives, the teams’ play on the field should be the only deciding factor.

It is rather easy to do if you ask us on our PiRate ship.  It would require minimal adjustment to pull it off.  We believe the NCAA FBS division should be subdivided into FBA-1 and FBS-2.  There are about 80 schools that play at a level where they could possibly field a playoff-caliber team.  The other 46, and soon to be more do not have the resources as of now to play at the highest echelon of college football.

Thus, it would be our plan to take these 80 schools and place them into four, 20-team league, subdivided into two, 10-team divisions.  We are not all that far away from having that now.

With 10 teams in a division, every team would be able to play itself into the playoff without having to be selected.  The teams would play every other team in their division plus three at-large games that would have minimal impact on their making the playoffs.

After 12 games, with nine of the games coming within the division, a divisional champion would move on to play the opposite divisional champion in each of the four leagues.  The four champions would then become the four teams in the NCAA playoffs.  No seeding would be done.  The four league championship games would be played at neutral sites, and the four winners would not be seeded.  They would face off in the semifinals on a rotation with East playing Midwest and South playing West one year; East playing South and Midwest playing West the next year; and East playing West and South playing Midwest the next year.

The East, South, Midwest, and West Leagues could keep conference names, so we could be looking at a 20-team ACC, 20-team SEC, 20-team Big 20, and 20-team Pac-20.

We suggest the leagues continue to keep their current teams, with the exception of the Big 12 which would send teams into different leagues.

So, the ACC would keep its Atlantic and Coastal divisions with the seven current teams scheduled to be there in 2014 (Louisville replacing Maryland in the Atlantic Division.  To this 14-team league, we would add West Virginia, Cincinnati, South Florida, Central Florida, Connecticut, and East Carolina with three going to the Atlantic and three to the Coastal.

The SEC would keep its 14 teams in the present form and then add Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston, and SMU,

The Big 20 would take the 14 Big Ten schools of 2014 (Maryland and Rutgers already coming to the conference) and add Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., Oklahoma, OklahomaSt., and Notre Dame.

The expanded Pac-20 would include the current 12 members plus BYU, Boise St., Fresno St., Nevada, San Diego St., San Jose St., Hawaii, and Utah St.

Every one of these 80 teams could begin each season knowing that if they won their division, nothing could prevent them from becoming National Champion.

For divisional ties, a tiebreaker system similar to the NFL would be used to break all ties.  A coin flip would be the last of about 7 or 8 tiebreakers (The NFL has never needed to use this, and the chances would be so infinitesimal to believe it would happen while the Sun still shines on the Earth.

Here is an example of how it would work.  We will say that in 2016 under this plan, Florida St. and West Virginia won the two ACC divisions after West Virginia and Louisville had to go to the third tiebreaker to determine who won.  Florida St. then beat West Virginia in the ACC Championship Game to earn the first spot in the NCAA Playoffs.

In the SEC, Texas, LSU, and Alabama all finished tied at 7-2 in their division, but Texas held the tiebreaker over its two rivals. Florida tied South Carolina in the other division but won the head-to-head contest to represent the East Division.  Texas then won the SEC Championship Game.

In the Big 20, Ohio St. won one of the divisions outright, while Oklahoma and Nebraska tied at 8-1, but the Sooners won the head-to-head contest to take the tiebreaker. Ohio St. then beat Oklahoma in the Big 20 Championship Game.

In the Pac-20, Oregon and USC both went 9-0/12-0, with USC winning the Pac-20 Championship Game.  The Trojans are considered the overwhelming number one team, but that matters not in these playoffs.  They are just one of the four participants in the NCAA Playoffs.

This would be the season where the East and West play each other and the South and Midwest play each other in the semifinal round.  So, in the Final Four, we would see Florida St. take on USC and Ohio St. face Texas, with the winners advancing to the National Championship Game.

March 7, 2013

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–Thursday, March 7, 2013

Today’s Conference Tournaments in Action

Atlantic Sun—Quarterfinal Round Continues

Big South—Quarterfinal Round

Missouri Valley—Opening Round

Ohio Valley—Quarterfinal Round

West Coast—2nd Round

 

America East Conference

 

Seed

Team

Conference

Overall

RPI

1

Stony Brook

14-2

23-6

71

2

Vermont

11-5

19-10

128

3

Hartford

10-6

17-12

171

4

Albany

9-7

21-10

164

5

Maine

6-10

11-18

273

6

U M B C

5-11

7-22

312

7

N. Hampshire

5-11

9-19

293

8

Binghamton

1-15

3-26

338

 

Conference Tournament—Albany, NY  (Championship Game at Higher Seed)

 

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

1

2-Vermont vs. 7-New Hampshire

12:00 Noon

ESPN3

2

3-Hartford vs. 6-U M B C

2:00 PM

ESPN3

3

1-Stony Brook vs. 8-Binghamton

6:00 PM

ESPN3

4

4-Albany vs. 5-Maine

8:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

5

Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2

5:00 PM

ESPN3

6

Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4

7:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 -Finals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 16

 

 

7

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

11:30 AM

ESPN2

 

at Higher Seeded Winner’s Home Court

 

 

 

Online Site: www.americaeast.com

 

Atlantic Sun Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Mercer 14-4 22-10 131
2 Florida Gulf Coast 13-5 22-10 109
3 Stetson 11-7 14-15 223
4 SC Upstate 9-9 15-16 228
5 Jacksonville 9-9 14-17 268
6 North Florida 8-10 13-19 220
7 East Tennessee St. 8-10 10-21 263
8 Lipscomb 7-11 12-18 235

 

Conference Tournament—Macon, GA (Mercer)

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals Time TV

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 06, 2013    

1

#2 Florida Gulf Coast  73  #7 N. Florida  63    

2

#1 Mercer  82  #8 Lipscomb  48    

 

     

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals    

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 07, 2013    

3

#3 Stetson vs. #6 East Tennessee St. 2:30 p.m. ESPN3

4

#4 Jacksonville vs. #5 USC-Upstate 8:30 p.m. ESPN3

 

     

 

Day 3 – Semifinals    

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 08, 2013    

5

#2 Fla. Gulf Coast vs. Winner Game 3 5:30 p.m. CSS

6

#1 Mercer vs. Winner Game 4 8:00 p.m. CSS

 

     

 

Day 4 – Finals    

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 09, 2013    

7

Semifinal Winners 12:00 p.m. ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.atlanticsun.org

 

Big South Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Charleston Southern 12-4 17-11 186
2 High Point 12-4 17-12 248
3 Gardner-Webb 11-5 20-11 185
4 UNC-Asheville 10-6 16-16 202
5 Coastal Carolina 9-7 14-15 246
6 V M I 8-8 13-16 311
7 Campbell 7-9 13-19 293
8 Radford 7-9 13-19 313
9 Winthrop 6-10 14-16 275
10 Liberty 6-10 12-20 324
11 Presbyterian 4-12 8-24 339
12 Longwood 4-12 8-24 336

 

Conference Tournament—Conway, SC (Myrtle Beach Area) (Coastal Carolina)

Game #

Day 1 – First Round

Time

TV

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 5

 

 

1

5S Winthrop  60  4N Radford  58 ot

 

 

2

6N Longwood  87  3S UNC-Asheville  72

 

 

3

3N Campbell  81  6S Presbyterian  73

 

 

4

5N Liberty  78  4S Coastal Carolina  61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 7

 

 

5

1S Charleston Southern vs. 5S Winthrop

12 Noon

Online

6

2N V M I vs. 6N Longwood

2:00 PM

Online

7

2S Gardner-Webb vs. 3N Campbell

6:00 PM

Online

8

1N High Point vs. 5N Liberty

8:00 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

9

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

12 Noon

ESPN3

10

Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

2:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4-Finals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

11

Winner Game 9 vs. Winner Game 10

12 Noon

ESPN2

 

Online TV Site: www.bigsouthsports.com

 

Colonial Athletic Association

 

Seed

Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Northeastern 14-4 19-11 160
2 Delaware 13-5 18-13 127
3 James Madison 11-7 17-14 207
4 George Mason 10-8 17-13 155
5 Drexel 9-9 13-17 205
6 William & Mary 7-11 13-16 265
7 Hofstra 4-14 7-24 321

 

Conference Tournament—Richmond, VA

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

1

4-George Mason vs. 5-Drexel

3:30 PM

Online

2

2-Delaware vs. 7-Hofstra

6:00 PM

Online

3

3-James Madison vs. 6-William & Mary

8:30 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

4

1-Northeastern vs. Winner Game 1

2:00 PM

NBCSN

5

Winner Game 2 vs. Winner Game 3

4:30 PM

NBCSN

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3-Finals

 

 

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

6

Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5

7:00 PM

NBCSN

 

Online Site: http://www.caasports.com

 

Horizon League

 

Seed

Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Valparaiso 13-3 24-7 63
2 Detroit 12-4 20-11 58
3 Wright St. 10-6 19-11 166
4 Green Bay 10-6 17-14 167
5 Illinois-Chicago 7-9 17-14 164
6 Youngstown St. 7-9 17-14 190
7 Loyola (Chi) 5-11 15-16 218
8 Cleveland St. 5-11 14-18 196
9 Milwaukee 3-13 8-24 301

 

Conference Tournament—1st Round & Championship @ Higher Seed, Quarterfinals & Semifinals at Valparaiso

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 5

 

 

1

4-Green Bay  62  9-Milwaukee  46

 

 

2

5-Illinois-Chicago  82  8-Cleveland St.  59

 

 

3

6-Youngstown St.  62  7-Loyola (Chi)  60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

4

3-Wright St. vs. 6-Youngstown St.

6:00 PM

Horizon Network

5

4-Green Bay vs. 5-Illinois-Chicago

8:30 PM

Horizon Network

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

6

2-Detroit vs. Winner Game 4

6:00 PM

ESPNU (10:30)

7

1-Valparaiso vs/ Winner Game 5

8:30 PM

ESPNU

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

8

Winner Game 6 vs. Winner Game 7

9:00 PM

ESPN

 

Online Site: http://www.horizonleague.org

 

M A A C

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Niagara 13-5 18-12 123
2 Rider 12-6 18-13 135
3 Loyola (MD) 12-6 21-10 98
4 Iona 11-7 17-13 117
5 Canisius 11-7 18-12 110
6 Manhattan 9-9 12-17 200
7 Fairfield 9-9 17-14 170
8 Marist 6-12 10-20 250
9 Siena 4-14 7-23 297
10 St. Peter’s 3-15 9-20 283

 

Conference Tournament—Springfield, MA

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

1

8-Marist vs. 9-Siena

7:30 PM

Online

2

7-Fairfield vs. 10-St. Peter’s

9:30 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

3

1-Niagara vs. Winner Game 1

2:30 PM

ESPN3

4

4-Iona vs. 5-Canisius

4:30 PM

ESPN3

5

2-Rider vs. Winner Game 2

7:30 PM

ESPN3

6

3-Loyola (MD) vs. 6-Manhattan

9:30 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

7

Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4

2:00 PM

ESPN3

8

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

4:30 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

9

Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

9:00 PM

ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.maacsports.com

 

Missouri Valley Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Creighton 13-5 24-7 36
2 Wichita St. 12-6 24-7 40
3 Northern Iowa 11-7 18-13 79
4 Evansville 10-8 18-13 96
5 Indiana St. 9-9 17-13 78
6 Illinois St. 8-10 17-14 120
7 Missouri St. 7-11 10-21 211
8 Bradley 7-11 16-15 181
9 Drake 7-11 14-16 150
10 Southern Illinois 6-12 14-16 177

 

Conference Tournament—St. Louis (Arch Madness)

 

Game #

Day 1 – Opening Round

Time

TV

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 7

 

 

1

8-Bradley vs. 9-Drake

7:05 PM

MVC TV

2

7-Missouri St. vs. 10-Southern Illinois

9:35 PM

MVC TV

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

3

1-Creighton vs. Winner Game 1

1:05 PM

MVC TV

4

4-Evansville vs. 5-Indiana St.

3:35 PM

MVC TV

5

2-Wichita St. vs. Winner Game 2

7:05 PM

MVC TV

6

3-Northern Iowa vs. 6-Illinois St.

9:35 PM

MVC TV

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

7

Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4

2:35 PM

MVC TV

8

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

5:05 PM

MVC TV

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

9

Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

2:05 PM

CBS

 

 

Online Site: http://www.mvc-sports.com

 

 

Northeast Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Robert Morris 14-4 23-9 114
2 Wagner 12-6 19-11 124
3 Long Island 12-6 18-13 195
4 Bryant 12-6 19-11 146
5 Mt. St. Mary‘s 11-7 17-13 156
6 Quinnipiac 11-7 15-16 191
7 Central Connecticut 9-9 13-17 197
8 St. Francis, NY 8-10 12-18 216

 

Conference Tournament—Games at Campus Sites.  Higher Seeds Host All Games.  Teams Will Be Re-Seeded After Quarterfinals

 

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6

 

 

1

1-Robert Morris  75  8-St. Francis (NY)  57

 

 

2

2-Wagner  72  7-Central Connecticut  50

 

 

3

3-Long Island  91  6-Quinnipiac  83

 

 

4

5-Mt. St. Mary‘s  75  4-Bryant  69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

5

5-Mt. St. Mary’s at 1-Robert Morris

12:00 or 2:30 PM

ESPN3

6

3-Long Island at 2-Wagner

12:00 or 2:30 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Finals

 

 

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

7

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

7:00 PM

ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.northeastconference.org

 

Ohio Valley Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Belmont 14-2 24-6 24
2 Murray St. 10-6 20-9 128
3 Eastern Kentucky 12-4 23-8 65
4 Tennessee St. 11-5 17-13 111
5 Morehead St. 8-8 15-17 172
6 Southeast Missouri 8-8 17-15 224
7 E. Illinois 6-10 11-21 272
8 UT-Martin 5-11 9-21 306

 

Conference Tournament—Nashville

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6

 

 

1

5-Morehead St.  73  8-UT-Martin  66

 

 

2

6-Southeast Missouri  78  7-E. Illinois  68

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 7

 

 

3

4-Tennessee St. vs. 5-Morehead St.

7:00 PM

OVC Network

4

3-Eastern Kentucky vs. 6-S E M O

9:00 PM

OVC Network

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

5

1-Belmont vs. Winner Game 3

7:00 PM

ESPNU

6

2-Murray St. vs. Winner Game 4

9:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

7

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

7:00 PM

ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com

 

Patriot League

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Bucknell 12-2 26-5 52
2 Lafayette 10-4 18-14 173
3 Lehigh 10-4 21-8 105
4 Army 8-6 16-14 213
5 American 5-9 10-20 261
6 Colgate 5-9 11-21 255
7 Holy Cross 4-10 12-18 249
8 Navy 2-12 8-23 314

 

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6

 

 

1

1-Bucknell  58  8-Navy  42

 

 

2

4-Army  65  5-American  44

 

 

3

2-Lafayette  77  7-Holy Cross  54

 

 

4

3-Lehigh  71  6-Colgate  64

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

 

Games at Higher Seed

 

 

5

4-Army at 1-Bucknell

2:00 or 4:30 PM

CBSSN

6

3-Lehigh at 2-Lafayette

2:00 or 4:30 PM

CBSSN

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Finals

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13

 

 

 

Game at Higher Seed

 

 

7

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

7:30 PM

CBSSN

 

Online Site: http://www.patriotleague.org

 

Southern Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Davidson 17-1 23-7 82
2 College of Charleston 14-4 22-9 147
3 Elon 13-5 20-10 176
4 Appalachian St. 10-8 14-15 270
5 Western Carolina 9-9 13-18 251
6 Samford 9-9 11-20 281
7 Chattanooga 8-10 13-18 276
8 Wofford 7-11 13-18 240
9 Georgia Southern 7-11 13-18 277
10 UNC-Greensboro 6-12 8-21 330
11 The Citadel 5-13 8-21 327
12 Furman 3-15 6-23 342

 

Conference Tournament: Asheville, NC

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

1

8-Wofford vs. 9-Georgia Southern

11:30 AM

ESPN3

2

5-Samford vs. 12-Furman

2:00 PM

ESPN3

3

7-Chattanooga vs. 10-UNC-Greensboro

6:00 PM

ESPN3

4

6-Western Carolina vs. 11-The Citadel

8:30 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

5

1-Davidson vs. Winner Game 1

12:00 PM

ESPN3

6

4-Appalachian St. vs. Winner Game 2

2:30 PM

ESPN3

7

2-Elon vs. Winner Game 3

6:00 PM

ESPN3

8

3-College of Charleston vs. Winner Game 4

8:30 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

9

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

6:00 PM

ESPN3

10

Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

8:30 PM

ESPN3

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

11

Winner Game 9 vs. Winner Game 10

7:00 PM

ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.soconsports.com

 

Summit League

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 South Dakota St. 13-3 22-9 75
2 Western Illinois 13-3 21-7 126
3 North Dakota St. 12-4 22-8 81
4 Oakland 10-6 16-15 132
5 I P F W 7-9 15-16 264
6 Mo.-Kansas City 5-11 8-23 287
7 South Dakota 5-11 10-19 242
8 I U P U I 1-15 6-25 325

 

Conference Tournament—Sioux Falls, SD

 

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

1

1-South Dakota St. vs. 8-I U P U I

7:00 PM

FOXCS

2

2-Western Illinois vs. 7-South Dakota

9:30 PM

FOXCS

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

3

4-Oakland vs. 5-I P F W

7:00 PM

FOXCS

4

3-North Dakota St. vs. 6-UM-Kansas City

9:30 PM

FOXCS

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 –Semifinals

 

 

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

5

Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 3

7:00 PM

FOXCS

6

Winner Game 2 vs. Winner Game 4

9:30 PM

FOXCS

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

7

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

9:00 PM

ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.thesummitleague.org

 

Sun Belt Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Middle Tennessee 19-1 27-4 23
2 South Alabama 14-6 17-11 149
3 Arkansas St. 12-8 18-11 154
4 Florida Int’l 11-9 16-13 137
5 Arkansas-Little Rock 11-9 17-14 163
6 Western Kentucky 10-10 16-15 178
7 Florida Atlantic 9-11 14-17 209
8 Louisiana-Lafayette 8-12 12-19 229
9 North Texas 7-13 12-19 233
10 Troy 6-14 11-20 271
11 Louisiana-Monroe 3-17 4-22 299

 

Conference Tournament—Hot Springs, AR

Note: This Tournament Uses Two Courts— S=Summit Arena, C=Convention Center Court

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

1

6-Western Kentucky vs. 11-UL-Monroe

7:00 PM  S

Online

2

8-UL-Lafayette vs. 9-North Texas

7:30 PM  C

Online

3

7-Florida Atlantic vs. 10-Troy

9:30 PM  S

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

4

4-Florida Int’l vs. 5-Ark.-Little Rock

7:00 PM  C

Sun Belt Network

5

1-Middle Tennessee vs. Winner Game 2

7:30 PM  S

Sun Belt Network

6

3-South Alabama vs. Winner Game 1

9:30 PM  C

Sun Belt Network

7

2-Arkansas St. vs. Winner Game 3

10:00 PM  S

Sun Belt Network

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

8

Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5

7:30 PM  S

Sun Belt Network

9

Winner Game 6 vs. Winner Game 7

9:00 PM  S

Sun Belt Network

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

10

Winner Game 8 vs. Winner Game 9

7:00 PM  S

ESPN

 

Online Site: http://www.sunbeltsports.org

 

West Coast Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Gonzaga 16-0 29-2 10
2 St. Mary’s 14-2 26-5 41
3 B Y U 10-6 21-10 62
4 Santa Clara 9-7 21-10 90
5 San Francisco 7-9 14-15 152
6 San Diego 7-9 14-17 180
7 Pepperdine 4-12 12-17 204
8 Portland 4-12 11-21 219
9 Loyola Marymount 1-15 9-22 253

 

Conference Tournament: Las Vegas

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6

 

 

1

9-Loyola Marymount  65  8-Portland  54

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – 2nd Round

 

 

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 7

 

 

2

5-San Francisco vs. 9-Loyola Marymount

8:00 PM

BYU-TV

3

6-San Diego vs. 7-Pepperdine

10:30 PM

BYU-TV

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

4

4-Santa Clara vs. Winner Game 2

8:00 PM

ESPNU

5

3-B Y U vs. Winner Game 3

10:30 PM

ESPNU

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

6

1-Gonzaga vs. Winner Game 4

8:00 PM

ESPN2

7

2-St. Mary’s vs. Winner Game 5

10:30 PM

ESPN2

 

 

 

 

 

Day 5 – Finals

 

 

8

MONDAY, MARCH 11

8:00 PM

ESPN

 

Online Site: http://www.wccsports.com

 

As The Bubble Blows

Villanova moved up to the top of the bubble with their win over Georgetown last night.  Barring 4 or 5 major conference tournament upset winners, the Wildcats will be dancing.

 

With the loss, Georgetown’s chances at earning a 1-seed drop to slim.  The Hoyas must win the Big East Tournament and hope that two or three teams in front of them lose.

 

One of those teams that may not be in front of Georgetown is Miami.  The Hurricanes continued their late-season slide last night with a loss to Georgia Tech.  That makes three losses in their last four games.

 

Florida and Michigan both won important games last night.  The Gators secured the regular season SEC Championship with a win over Vanderbilt, while the Wolverines won at Purdue to put themselves into contention for a piece of the regular season Big Ten Championship.  The Maize and Blue host Indiana Sunday afternoon, and a win leaves both teams at 13-5.  If Michigan wins, Ohio State can join them at 13-5 with a win over Illinois, and tonight’s Michigan State-Wisconsin winner will make it a crowded finish if that team can win its last game (MSU hosts Northwestern, while UW plays at Penn St.)

 

IowaState got their big win last night over OklahomaState, but is it big enough?  OSU is not KU or even K-State, so the Cyclones still have work to do to be on the safe side of the bubble.

 

Tennessee came from behind to win at Auburn, and the Vols will move into the field of 68 with a win over Missouri Saturday and at least one win in the SEC Tournament.

 

Stanford put themselves into position to get into position with a nasty win over rival Cal, snapping the Bears’ 7-game winning streak.  The Cardinal need a couple of Pac-12 Tournament wins to have a chance, and they probably need to get to the championship round to get in as an at-large.

 

Maryland played itself into the NIT with a loss to Streaking North Carolina last night.  A loss at Virginia Sunday would seal their fate.

 

Other Big Games of Note for Thursday, March 07, 2013

Wisconsin at Michigan St.: Besides giving the winner a chance to play for a share of the Big Ten title, the loser of this game will see their seed dropping as the result of consecutive losses.  Wisconsin fell at home to Purdue last time out, while Sparty comes into this game with a three-game losing streak (Indiana, OhioState, and Michigan).

 

Oregon at Colorado: The Buffaloes are close qualifying for an at-large bid.  They host the two Oregon schools to close out the regular season, and if they win tonight, CU moves up there with Villanova at the top of the bubble.  The Ducks finish at lowly Utah, so they can still win the regular season title with just one win, but may have to share it with just one win.

 

Kentucky at Georgia:  We believe that no matter what the Wildcats do, the Selection Committee will find some loophole to include the Big Blue in the Dance.  With their current resume, if the name on their jerseys read “Nebraska,” they would be looking at two must-win games to close out the regular season.  Georgia isn’t playing for an NCAA bid, and their NIT hopes are dim as well, but a win over the Cats to close out their home schedule would be as big as Kentucky beating Georgia on the gridiron.

December 7, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Round One

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The Opening Round of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs is in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off with the top four seeds receiving byes.

 

Without further adieu, let’s reveal the results.

 

#12 Seed: Louisville (10-2) at #5 Seed: Oregon (11-1)

Oregon 45  Louisville 17

 

Oregon

Team

Louisville

45

Score

17

23

First Downs

18

42

Rush Attempts

37

223

Rush Yards

104

18

Pass Completions

18

29

Pass Attempts

32

209

Pass Yards

191

0

Intercepted

1

3-43.7

Punt Average

6-41.5

2-41

Punt Returns

0-0

4-92

Kick Returns

5-93

5-40

Penalties

7-57

0-0

Fumbles/Lost

2-0

2-11

Def: Sack-Yds

0-0

71

Plays

69

432

Total Yards

295

 

#11 Seed: Florida State (11-2) at #6 Seed: Kansas State (11-1)

Kansas State 27  Florida State 16

 

Kansas St.

Team

Florida St.

27

Score

16

18

First Downs

17

47

Rush Attempts

34

202

Rush Yards

119

10

Pass Completions

22

22

Pass Attempts

38

147

Pass Yards

236

1

Intercepted

2

5-43.4

Punt Average

5-39.8

1-(-3)

Punt Returns

3-14

3-61

Kick Returns

2-38

6-55

Penalties

7-46

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

2-13

Def: Sack-Yds

0-0

69

Plays

72

349

Total Yards

355

 

 

#10 Seed: Texas A&M (10-2) at #7 Seed: Georgia (11-2)

Georgia 33  Texas A&M 31

 

Georgia

Team

Texas A&M

33

Score

31

22

First Downs

23

36

Rush Attempts

41

137

Rush Yards

180

20

Pass Completions

29

34

Pass Attempts

45

242

Pass Yards

313

1

Intercepted

1

3-41.3

Punt Average

2-45.0

0-0

Punt Returns

0-0

6-199

Kick Returns

1-21

5-35

Penalties

8-72

0-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

1-12

Def: Sack-Yds

2-11

70

Plays

86

379

Total Yards

493

 

#9 Seed: Stanford (11-2) at #8 Seed LSU (10-2)

Stanford 28  LSU 20

 

L S U

Team

Stanford

20

Score

28

16

First Downs

20

42

Rush Attempts

39

151

Rush Yards

172

16

Pass Completions

17

29

Pass Attempts

28

156

Pass Yards

183

2

Intercepted

0

6-45.7

Punt Average

5-41.6

2-6

Punt Returns

3-37

3-59

Kick Returns

2-47

6-50

Penalties

8-56

2-1

Fumbles/Lost

1-0

1-7

Def: Sack-Yds

2-15

71

Plays

67

307

Total Yards

355

 

Round Two is now set.  Our Elite Eight Games Include:

 

#9 Seed: Stanford (12-2) at #1 Seed: Notre Dame (12-0)

#7 Seed: Georgia (12-2) at #2 Seed: Alabama (12-1)

#6 Seed: Kansas St. (12-1) at #3 Seed: Ohio State (12-0)

#5 Seed: Oregon (12-1) at #4 Seed: Florida (11-1)

 

These games will be simulated and revealed next Friday, December 14, 2012 before 4 PM Eastern Standard Time.

December 3, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Bracket Reveal

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

Yes, a playoff is coming to college football in two more years, but as far as we are concerned, the NCAA still had not gotten it right.  A four-team playoff this year would have included Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida, and Oregon.  Kansas State would have been left out, and that would be a travesty.

Imagine the NFL leaving out the San Francisco 49ers from the playoffs this year.  It would be an outrage and would lessen the NFL as a brand.

There’s a reason the Super Bowl is what it is:  It is a legitimate playoff where all division champions are included.

The NCAA will never approach the success of the NFL while there is a chance that an 11-1 Kansas State team would not be included as Big 12 Champions.  No poll or computer rating, ours included, can really select Alabama, Florida, or Oregon as a better team than Kansas State, and thus this new four-team playoff that will commence in 2014 is a joke without merit.

Schedule strength can never determine which teams are better and more deserving than others.  It does not determine which teams are the best.  Winning a conference championship does accomplish that.

For instance, what if the Houston Texans roster played as the collegiate Houston Cougars?  Let’s say, the “Texans” played the same schedule this season as the “Cougars” and easily ran the table with a 13-0 mark, destroying the likes of Texas State, Louisiana Tech, UCLA, Rice, North Texas, UAB, SMU, UTEP, East Carolina, Tulsa, Marshall, and Tulane, before knocking off Central Florida in the Conference USA Championship Game.

Let’s say with this 13-0 record, Houston moved up to number nine in the BCS rankings.  In the current BCS season, they would have been rewarded with the Orange Bowl bid that went to Northern Illinois.  After thoroughly destroying Florida State to finish 14-0, they might have moved up to sixth or fifth.  We are supposed to believe that four or five college teams are still better than the most talented roster in the NFL.

Under the future playoff rules, the 13-0 Cougars/Texans would not even have a chance of playing in the playoffs.  That’s correct, the top team in the NFL would be deemed unworthy of playing for the collegiate national championship.

How to rectify this is very simple.  First, the champions of the current top six conferences must receive automatic playoff spots, just like the eight divisional champions of the NFL.  Then, six more at-large teams need to be included to guarantee that a 13-0 Houston Cougars team with the Houston Texans roster would be included.

Okay, so you say that our supposition is a big joke?  Sure, the top NFL team would never put on college jerseys and play.  However, how can you tell that a 13-0 Houston Cougars team may or may not be a better team than a 11-1 Florida Gators team?  If Florida played Houston’s schedule, they could do no better than 13-0.

This is where our PiRate Playoff system corrects these terrible misdeeds.

This is our sixth year simulating playoffs.  Here is how it works:

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.  In our world, teams on probation are eligible for our playoffs.  We want the best teams from each conference.  We believe that not allowing teams to appear in the postseason after they played an entire season is ridiculous.  Only the players and fans are punished.  Instead, probation should be monetary only.  Thus, Ohio State is eligible for our playoffs.

After the top six conference champions are selected, we next take any conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS poll also receives an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are added based on BCS rating until 12 total teams have been selected.

Just like the NFL, our simulated college playoffs are played at the home field of the higher-seeded team until the Championship Game, The Simper Bowl, which is played at a neutral site.  In past years, we have chosen the Los Angeles Coliseum, but we have chosen a new location this year—Metlife Stadium in Metro New Jersey.  If a Super Bowl can be played outdoors in East Rutherford, then we can stage a college championship game there as well.

Each game in our simulated playoffs will be simulated just one time this year.  By simulating games 100 times, there is very little chance for upsets, and in real playoffs, teams only square off once.  So, if a team that might win 12 times out of 100 happens to win that lone simulation, it is the same as an upset in the NFL playoffs, and why the NFL is the king of all sports.

About the simulator:  We have access to a computer simulator on a large college campus.  It has been used to predict winners against the spread in the past, but at the present time, nobody is using it for that purpose.  A large string of statistical data is fed into the simulator, and it spits out winners of simulated games along with total statistics.

In the past, the simulator produced individual statistics and even a basic play-by-play, such as: “Smith 3 yard gain up the middle/Tackle Jones and Brown.”  Unfortunately, we only have access to total statistics this year.

What do we think about the 35 bowls with 70 teams, including schools that are 6-6 or even 6-7?  We could not care less about these games.  It might be a big deal for Central Michigan and Western Kentucky to play in a bowl, but we aren’t going to give it a moment’s notice.  In fact, only the box score with stats means anything to us, and then only because we have to calculate new ratings for the final ratings.

Even games such as Clemson and LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and Oregon and Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl mean nothing.  They cannot affect the national championship.  At least in the old days, it was possible for as many as five bowl games to play a part in the National Championship.

We like to use the 1970-71 bowl season as an example.  Entering the bowls, Texas was 10-0, Ohio State was 9-0, Nebraska was 10-0-1, and Arizona State was 11-0.  Additionally, Toledo and Dartmouth were undefeated in a year in which the Rockets and Big Green were actually good enough to beat a top ten team, with squads that were probably the best ever from the MAC and Ivy League.  Tennessee and Notre Dame both had just one loss, with the Vols losing only to Top Ten team Auburn with Pat Sullivan throwing to Terry Beasley.  The Irish were undefeated until losing their final game against Southern Cal in the Coliseum in LA.

Toledo was limited to the Tangerine Bowl as MAC Champion, and the Rockets destroyed William & Mary by four touchdowns.  It wasn’t enough to put them in the title picture, but it led to a Top 10 finish in some polls.

Arizona State played North Carolina in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta and won by more than three touchdowns to finish 11-0.  However, the Sun Devils were in the WAC then, and their schedule was not quite as tough as others in contention.  They did beat a 6-5 Kansas State team by 22 point, but Nebraska beat the Wildcats by 38.

New Year’s Day started with the Sugar Bowl on ABC and the Cotton Bowl on CBS, both kicking off at roughly the same time.  In the Cotton Bowl, number one Texas was facing off against #4 Notre Dame.  The Longhorns had defeated the Irish the year before in the Cotton Bowl to win the national title.  However, Coach Ara Parseghian devised an entirely new defense aimed at stopping the powerful wishbone offense run by Texas.  They held the Longhorns more than 30 points under their scoring average, while quarterback Joe Theismann passed the Irish to a convincing 13-point win.  Number one was up for grabs now.

Over on ABC, Tennessee was thoroughly destroying a 9-2 Air Force team in the Sugar Bowl.  That Air Force team had clobbered Pac-8 champ Stanford earlier in the season.  Now, the Vols and Irish had won as one-loss teams.  All eyes shifted west to Pasadena.

In the Rose Bowl on NBC, Curt Gowdy explained to the nation that Ohio State would lock up the national title with a victory over 8-3 Stanford.  The undefeated Buckeyes were a senior-laden team with enough stars to start an NFL expansion franchise.  Those seniors had been 27-1 to this point in their careers.  But, Stanford had the big equalizer.  Heisman Trophy winner Jim Plunkett and end Randy Vataha was the best passing combo in the nation, just a fraction ahead of Sullivan and Beasley.  Ohio State’s three yards and a cloud of dust offense began the game looking invincible, but then Stanford’s defense brought a rover back up to the middle to plug the off-tackle holes.  Plunkett began firing rifle shots against a Buckeye secondary that had not faced a passing team all season.  All of a sudden, the cinch national title was gone, and Stanford won by 10 points.

Now, the nation turned to Miami and the Orange Bowl on NBC.  Nebraska was 10-0-1, but the Cornhuskers were a slight underdog to 9-2 LSU, a team that had lost to Notre Dame 3-0.  The game was a defensive struggle all night, and LSU led for three quarters.  With 15 minutes to go in the game, it looked like several teams might split the title.  Nebraska had one good fourth quarter drive to take the lead, and the “Huskers held on to win a nailbiter 17-12.

All told, the Peach, Sugar, Cotton, Rose, and Orange Bowls played a part in the title that season.  Nebraska eventually won all of the postseason versions of the “legitimate” national championships of that day.  All four New Year’s Day Bowls were essential games to watch.

In other years, as many as five different teams claimed national championships in the same year.  It may not have been ideal, but at least teams that deserved to be considered in the national championship equation received recognition.  For instance, in 1973, Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and Oklahoma all received recognition from at least one “officially recognized” polling service as national champion.  Additionally, there were three major mathematical ratings (pre-computer) that were considered legitimate enough to award a national champion.  The Carr Ratings, Litkenhous Ratings, and Dunkel Ratings crowned a national champion every year.

This cannot happen today.  Yes, the AP still crowns a recognized national champion and has awarded one to a team that did not win the BCS Championship Game (and could theoretically move 12-0 Ohio State to number one if Notre Dame loses to Alabama), but it does not come close to matching the bowls of yesteryear.

It is our opinion that the old way with multiple champions was better than the current BCS.  It made the four big New Year’s Day bowls must-see television events.

The new four-team playoff misses the mark and will cause the same troubles.  It would not have worked this year, and if Ohio State had been eligible, it would have meant that both Oregon and Kansas State would have been left out in favor of Alabama and Florida.

The only way to crown one legitimate champion is to give every top team a chance to play for it on the football field, and until the NCAA copies the NFL and institutes a playoff that gives the big conference champions an automatic bid and gives the smaller conference champions a chance to get into the playoffs, then any championship awarded is bogus.

With that in mind, the PiRate Ratings release its “Dandy Dozen” for 2012-13 and the pairings for the PiRate simulated playoffs.  The Road to Simper Bowl VI begins today.

Automatic Bids

Atlantic Coast Conference: Florida State 11-2

Big East Conference: Louisville 10-2

Big Ten Conference: Ohio State 12-0 (See above for why Ohio State is here and not Wisconsin)

Big 12 Conference: Kansas State 11-1

Pacific-12 Conference: Stanford 11-2

Southeastern Conference: Alabama 12-1

 

Other Conference Champions in BCS Top 12

No Teams Qualified (Northern Illinois did not qualify in our playoffs)

At-Large Selections (Selected in order of BCS Ranking)

Notre Dame 12-0

Florida 11-1

Oregon 11-1

Georgia 11-2

L S U 10-2

Texas A&M 10-2

 

Here are how our “Dandy Dozen” are seeded.  The top four teams receive first-round byes, while numbers 5 through 12 play in to the Final Eight, just like the NFL Playoffs.

  1. Notre Dame

  2. Alabama

  3. Ohio State (based on where they would have been if not on probation).

  4. Florida

  5. Oregon

  6. Kansas State

  7. Georgia

  8. L S U

  9. Stanford

10. Texas A&M

11. Florida State

12. Louisville

 

The opening round of the PiRate Simulated Playoffs begin this Friday, December 7, 2012.  Check back Friday after 1PM Eastern Standard Time for the results and statistics.

Here are the matchups

8 at L S U
————————-
|
|————————
9 Stanford | |
————————- |————————
1 at Notre Dame | |
————————- |
|
|
5 at Oregon |————————
————————- | |
| | |
|———————— | |
12 Louisville | | | |
 ———————— |———————— |
4 at Florida | |
————————- |
|Championship Game
|—————————-
7 at Georgia |At Met Life Stadium
————————- |
| |
|———————— |
10 Texas A&M | | |
————————- |———————— |
2 at Alabama | | |
————————- | |
| |
| |
6 at Kansas State |————————
————————- |
| |
|———————— |
11 Florida State | | |
————————- |————————
3 at Ohio State |
————————-

March 11, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Tournaments — March 11 Update

Here is the up-to-date (as of Saturday Night, March 10) results of all conference tournaments as well as the pairings for today’s games.

 

America East

Preliminary Round

#9 Binghamton 73  #8 Md.-Balt. Co. 67

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook 78  # 9 Binghamton 69

#4 Albany 63  #5 New Hampshire 45

#2 Vermont 50  #7 Maine 40

#6 Hartford 53  #3 Boston U 49 

 

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook 57  #4 Albany 55

#2 Vermont 77  #6 Hartford 73 2OT

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Vermont 51  #1 Stony Brook 43

 

Automatic Bid – VERMONT 23-11

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

 

This is a one-bid league.  Vermont destroyed Stony Brook by 19 points during the regular season, and yesterday showed that the earlier game was not a fluke.

 

A C C

Opening Round

#8 Maryland 82  #9 Wake Forest 60

#5 North Carolina St. 78  #12 Boston College 57

#10 Virginia Tech 68  #7 Clemson 63

#6 Miami (FL) 54  #11 Georgia Tech 36

 

Quarterfinals

#1 North Carolina 85  #8 Maryland 69

#5 North Carolina St. 67  #4 Virginia 64

#2 Duke 60  #10 Virginia Tech 56

#3 Florida St. 82  #6 Miami (FL) 71

 

Semifinals

#1 North Carolina 69  #5 North Carolina St. 67

#3 Florida St. 62  #2 Duke 59  

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 North Carolina (29-4) vs. #3 Florida St. (23-9)

 

 

At-Large: North Carolina, Duke, Florida St., Virginia

Upper Bubble: North Carolina St.

Lower Bubble: Miami (FL)

 

North Carolina already has a number one seed to the NCAA Tournament, but the Tar Heels will play all out today.  UNC usually fares best in the Big Dance when they win the ACC Tournament.

 

 

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont 76  #8 Jacksonville 62

#4 East Tennessee 68  #5 N. Florida 66

#2 Mercer 61  #7 Lipscomb 53

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 71  #3 S. Carolina Upstate 61

 

Semifinals

#1 Belmont 69  #4 East Tennessee 61

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 #2 Mercer 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Belmont 83  Florida Gulf Coast 69

 

Automatic Bid – BELMONT 27-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Atlantic 10

1st Round

#8 Massachusetts 92  #9 Duquesne 83

#5 St. Joe’s 80  #12 Charlotte 64

#7 LaSalle 80  #10 Richmond 72

#6 Dayton 67  #11 George Washington 50

 

Quarterfinals

#8 Massachusetts 77  #1 Temple 71

#4 St. Bonaventure 71  #5 St. Joe’s 68

#2 St. Louis 78  #7 LaSalle 71

#3 Xavier 70  #6 Dayton 69

 

Semifinals

#4 St. Bonaventure 84  #8 Massachusetts 80

#3 Xavier 71  #2 St. Louis 64  

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Xavier (21-11) vs. #4 St. Bonaventure (19-11)

 

At-Large: Temple, St. Louis

Upper Bubble:

Lower Bubble: Xavier

 

There will be one less bubble team getting an at-large bid thanks to the A-10.  Neither Xavier nor St. Bonaventure would have received a bid, so the winner becomes a bid-thief.

 

Big East

Opening Round

#9 Connecticut 81  #16 Dayton 67

#13 Pittsburgh 73  #12 St. John’s 59

#10 Seton Hall 79  #15 Providence 47

#14 Villanova 70  #11 Rutgers 49

 

2nd Round

#9 Connecticut 71  #8 West Virginia 67 OT

#5 Georgetown 64  #13 Pittsburgh 52

#7 Louisville 61 #10 Seton Hall 55

#6 South Florida 56  #14 Villanova 47

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Syracuse 58  #9 Connecticut 55

#4 Cincinnati 72  #5 Georgetown 70 2OT

#7 Louisville 84  #2 Marquette 71

#3 Notre Dame 57 #6 South Florida 52

 

Semifinals

#4 Cincinnati 71  #1 Syracuse 68  

#7 Louisville 64  #3 Notre Dame 50

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#7 Louisville 50  #4 Cincinnati 44

 

Automatic Bid – LOUISVILLE 26-9

At-Large Teams – Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Connecticut

Bubble – Seton Hall, South Florida

 

Big Sky

Quarterfinals

#3 Portland St. 75  #6 Montana St. 53

#4 Eastern Washington 81  #5 Idaho St. 75

 

Semifinals

#1 Montana 74  #4 Eastern Washington 66

#2 Weber St. 69 #3 Portland St. 63

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Montana 85 #2 Weber St. 66

 

Automatic Bid: MONTANA 25-6

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

This is a one-bid league, but both Montana and Weber State are talented enough to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. With an RPI around 70, the Wildcats are probably not on the bubble.

 

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8 High Point 68  #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55  #10 Radford 53

 

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86  #8 High Point 61

#4 Charleston Sou. 88  #5 Liberty 74

#6 Winthrop 71  #3 Campbell 55

#7 VMI 85  #2 Coastal Carolina 68

 

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91  #4 Charleston Sou. 64

#7 VMI 75  #6 Winthrop 55

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 UNC-Asheville  80  #7 VMI 64

 

Automatic Bid – UNC-ASHEVILLE 24-9

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Big Ten

Opening Round

#8 Iowa 64  #9 Illinois 61

#5 Indiana 75  #12 Penn State 58

#10 Minnesota 75  #7 Northwestern 68

#6 Purdue 79  #11 Nebraska 61

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Michigan St. 92  #8 Iowa 75

#4 Wisconsin 79  #5 Indiana 71

#2 Michigan 73  #10 Minnesota 69

#3 Ohio St. 88  #6 Purdue 71

 

Semifinals

#1 Michigan St. 65 #4 Wisconsin 52

#3 Ohio St. 77  #2 Michigan 55  

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Michigan St. (26-7) vs. #3 Ohio St. (27-6)

 

At-Large: Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue

Upper Bubble:

Lower Bubble: Northwestern

 

The two best teams in the league face off for the final conference championship.  All bids will be decided by the final horn.

 

Big 12

Opening Round

#9 Texas A&M 62  #8 Oklahoma 53

#7 Oklahoma St. 76  #10 Texas Tech 60

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Kansas 83  #9 Texas A&M 66

#4 Baylor 82  #5 Kansas St. 74

#2 Missouri 88  #7 Oklahoma St. 70

#3 Iowa St. 65  #6 Texas 71

 

Semifinals

#4 Baylor 81  #1 Kansas 72  

#2 Missouri 81  #6 Texas 67

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Missouri 90  #4 Baylor 75

 

Automatic Bid – MISSOURI 30-4

At-Large Teams – Kansas, Baylor, Iowa St., Kansas St.,

Bubble – Texas

 

Missouri has a decent shot at moving up to a number one seed, but not as much as if they had defeated Kansas instead of Baylor for the title.

 

Big West

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Beach St. 80  #8 UC-Davis 46

#4 Cal Poly SLO 66  #5 UC-Riverside 54

#7 UC-Irvine 65  #2 Cal State Fullerton 59

#3 U C S B 72  #6 Pacific 52

 

Semifinals

#1 Long Beach St. 68  #7 UC-Irvine 57

#3 U C S B 64  #4 Cal Poly SLO 52

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Long Beach St. 77  #3 U C S B 64

 

Automatic Bid – LONG BEACH ST. 25-8

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Long Beach State deserves a number 12 seed.  The 49ers will be a dangerous opponent in the first two rounds.

 

Colonial Athletic

Opening Round

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70  #8 James Madison 59

#5 Delaware 72  #12 Towson St. 65

#6 Georgia St. 85  #11 Hofstra 50

#7 Northeastern 57  #10 William & Mary 49

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Drexel 59  #9 UNC-Wilmington 47

#4 Old Dominion 88  #5 Delaware 74

#3 George Mason 61  #6 Georgia St. 59

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 75  #10 William & Mary 65

 

Semifinals

#1 Drexel 68  #4 Old Dominion 51

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 74  #3 George Mason 64

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 59 #1 Drexel 56

 

Automatic Bid – VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 28-6

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Drexel

 

 

Drexel has a chance of earning an at-large bid, but their RPI is on the low side at 68.

 

Conference USA

Opening Round

#5 U A B 72  #12 Tulane 64

#8 U T E P 67 #9 Houston 62 OT

#10 East Carolina 68  #7 Rice 66 

#6 Marshall 74  #11 S M U 56

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis 65  #8 U T E P 47

#4 Central Florida 51  #5 U A B 43

#2 Southern Mississippi 81  #10 East Carolina 78

#6 Marshall 105  #3 Tulsa 100  3 OT

 

Semifinals

#1 Memphis 83  #4 Central Florida 52

#6 Marshall 73  #2 Southern Mississippi 62

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Memphis 83  #6 Marshall 57

 

Automatic Bid – MEMPHIS 26-8

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Southern Miss

 

Memphis’s blowout win over Marshall definitely kept the Thundering Herd out of any discussion.  Southern Miss is not a high bubble team.  The Golden Eagles could be disappointed around 7 PM EDT today.

 

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4 Milwaukee 68  #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5 Butler 70  #8 Wright St. 52

#3 Detroit 80  #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6 Youngstown 77  #7 Green Bay 60

 

Quarterfinals

#5 Butler 71 #4 Milwaukee 49

#3 Detroit 93 #6 Youngstown St. 76

 

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso 65  #5 Butler 46

#3 Detroit 63  #2 Cleveland St. 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Detroit 70  #1 Valparaiso 50

 

Automatic Bid – DETROIT 22-13

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

This is a one-bid league.  Neither Valpo, Cleveland State nor Butler will  earn at-large bids.

 

M A A C

Preliminary Round

#8 Marist 64 #9 St. Peter’s 57

#7 Niagara 80 #10 Canisius 70

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Iona 87  #8 Marist 63

#4 Fairfield 65  #5 Rider 63

#2 Loyola (MD) 86  #7 Niagara 73

#6 Siena 84  #3 Manhattan 82

 

Semifinals

#4 Fairfield 85  #1 Iona 75

#2 Loyola (MD) 70  #6 Siena 60

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Loyola (MD) 48  #4 Fairfield 44

 

Automatic Bid – LOYOLA (MD) 24-8

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

This is a one-bid league.  Iona played their way out of the Big Dance and into the NIT.

 

M A C

Opening Round

#12 Northern Illinois 55  #5 Eastern Michigan 52  

#8 Western Michigan 69  #9 Ball St. 63

#7 Toledo 60  #10 (Miami (O) 53

#11 Central Michigan 54  #6 Bowling Green 53  

 

2nd Round

#8 Western Michigan 71  #12 Northern Illinois 54

#7 Toledo 75  #11 Central Michigan 72

 

Quarterfinals

#4 Kent St. 76  #8 Western Michigan 72

#3 Ohio 65  #7 Toledo 57

 

Semifinals

#1 Akron 78  #4 Kent St. 74

#3 Ohio 77  #2  Buffalo 74

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Ohio 64  #1 Akron 63

 

Automatic Bid – OHIO 26-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Akron

 

Akron fell to #58 in the RPI, so the Zips have a chance to get an at-large bid.

 

M E A C

Opening Round

#8 Hampton 69 #9 Morgan St. 65

#5 North Carolina Central 60 #12 Md. Eastern Shore 43

#4 Bethune-Cookman 62 #13 South Carolina St. 53

#11 Florida A& M 74  #6 Coppin St. 72

#10 Howard 51  #7 North Carolina A&T 50

 

Quarterfinals

#8 Hampton 59  #1 Savannah St. 46

#4 Bethune-Cookman 60  #5 North Carolina Central 59

#2 Norfolk St. 71 #7 Howard 61

#11 Florida A&M 65  #3 Delaware St. 55  

 

Semfinals

#4 Bethune-Cookman 81  #8 Hampton 72

#2 Norfolk St. 58  #11 Florida A&M 46

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Norfolk St. 73  #4 Bethune-Cookman 70

 

Automatic Bid – NORFOLK ST. 25-9

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

 

Norfolk State makes its first trip to the NCAA Tournament, and the Spartans have a chance to avoid the first round in Dayton.

 

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St. 66  #9 Southern Illinois 51

#7 Drake 65  #10 Bradley 49

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita St. 72 #8 Indiana St. 48

#4 Illinois St. 54 #5 Northern Iowa 42

#2 Creighton 68 vs. #7 Drake 61

#3 Evansville 72 vs. #6 Missouri St. 64

 

Semifinals

#4 Illinois St. 65  #1 Wichita St. 64

#2 Creighton 99  #3 Evansville 71

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Creighton 83  #4 Illinois St. 79 OT

 

Automatic Bid – CREIGHTON 27-5

At-Large – Wichita St. 27-5

Bubble – None

 

Mountain West

Quarterfinals

#1 San Diego St. 65  #8 Boise St. 62

#4 Colorado St. 81  #5 T C U 60

#2 New Mexico 79  #7 Air Force 64

#3 U N L V 56  #6 Wyoming 48

 

Semifinals

#1 San Diego St. 79  #4 Colorado St. 69

#2 New Mexico 72  #3 U N L V 67

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 New Mexico 68  #1 San Diego St. 59

 

Automatic Bid – NEW MEXICO 27-6

At-Large – San Diego St., U N L V

Bubble – Colorado St.

 

Anything other than four bids would be disappointing and even ridiculous.  Colorado State’s RPI is #24, and the Rams are tournament-worthy.

 

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island 80  #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80  #4 St. Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87  #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87  #7 Central Conn. St. 77

 

Semifinals

#1 Long Island 78 #5 Quinnipiac 75

#3 Robert Morris 71  #2 Wagner 64

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Long Island 90  #3 Robert Morris 73

 

Automatic Bid: LONG ISLAND 25-8

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

Wagner’s slim chances for getting in as a wildcard team went bye-bye with their semifinal loss to RMU.

 

LIU enters the Big Dance winning 20 of their last 22 games.

 

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75  #8 E. Kentucky 65

#7 Jacksonville St. 75  #6 Austin Peay 70

 

Quarterfinals

#4 Tennessee Tech 77 #5 Southeast Missouri 73

#3 Morehead St. 68  #7 Jacksonville St. 54

 

Semifinals

#1 Murray St. 78  #4 Tennessee Tech 58

#2 Tennessee St. 59 #3 Morehead St. 52

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Murray St. 54  #2 Tennessee St. 52

 

Automatic Bid – MURRAY ST. 30-1

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

 

Murray State should receive a #4 or #5 seed, a #6 at worst.

 

Pac-12

Opening Round

#9 Oregon St. 69  #8 Washington St. 64

#5 U C L A 55  #12 U S C 40

#7 Stanford 85  #10 Arizona St. 65

#6 Colorado 53  #11 Utah 41

 

Quarterfinals

#9 Oregon State 86  #1 Washington 84

#4 Arizona 66  #5 U C L A 58

#2 California 77  #7 Stanford 71

#6 Colorado 63  #3 Oregon 62  

 

Semifinals

#4 Arizona 72  #9 Oregon St. 61

#6 Colorado 70  #2 California 59

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#6 Colorado 53  #4 Arizona 51

 

Automatic Bid – COLORADO 23-11

At-Large – None

Bubble – California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona

 

Colorado is the only sure bid in this league.  However, we believe that no ‘Big Six” conference will receive just one bid.  Politics must be considered, even if “they” claim that all at-large teams are considered as independents.  Look for at least one from the bubble above to make the Dance.

 

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87  #8 Navy 63

#5 Lafayette 84  #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57  #6 Army 40

 

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell 79 #5 Lafayette 52

#2 Lehigh 85 #3 American 66

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Lehigh 82  #1 Bucknell 77  

 

Automatic Bid: LEHIGH 26-7

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

The Mountain Hawks search for the first NCAA Tournament win in their fifth trip to the Big Dance, and they have the one-two punch in C J McCollum and Gabe Knutson.  Lehigh lost at Michigan State by just nine points earlier in the year, and they enter the NCAA Tournament having won eight games in a row and 12 of 13.

 

Southern

Opening Round

#5N Appalachian St. 93  #4S College of Charleston 81

#3N Western Carolina 68  #6S Citadel 56

#5S Furman 75  #4N Samford 66

#3S Georgia Southern 76  #6N Chattanooga 70

 

Quarterfinals

#1N UNC-Greensboro 65  #5N Appalachian St. 55

#3N Western Carolina 82 #2S Wofford 59

#1S Davidson 73  #5S Furman 54

#2N Elon 65  #3S Georgia Southern 58

 

Semifinals

#3N Western Carolina 82  #1N UNC-Greensboro 77

#1S Davidson 83  #2N Elon 67

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1S Davidson  93 #1N UNC-Greensboro 91

 

Automatic Bid – DAVIDSON 25-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Davidson might not have earned a ticket as an at-large team.  Tell that to Kansas coach Bill Self, and he would say you were crazy.

 

S E C

Opening Round

#8 L S U 70  #9 Arkansas 54

#5 Alabama 63  #12 South Carolina 57

#7 Ole Miss 68  #10 Auburn 54

#11 Georgia 71  #6 Mississippi St. 61 

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Kentucky 60  #8 L S U 51

#4 Florida 66  #5 Alabama 63

#7 Ole Miss 77  #2 Tennessee 72 OT

#3 Vanderbilt 63  #11 Georgia 41

 

Semifinals

#1 Kentucky 74  #4 Florida 71

#3 Vanderbilt 65  #7 Ole Miss 53

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Kentucky (32-1) vs. #3 Vanderbilt (23-10)

 

At-Large: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt

Upper Bubble: Alabama

Lower Bubble: Ole Miss, Mississippi St.

 

The two teams picked to finish one-two at the beginning of the year meet for the tournament championship.  Kentucky won two close games during the year.  The Wildcats are just one last second jump shot away from being undefeated and considered the best team since Bill Walton’s 1973 UCLA Bruins went 30-0.  Look for the Wildcats to turn Royal Street into Royal Blue Street around 2:30 PM today.

 

Southland

Quarterfinals

#1 UT-Arlington 96  #8 Nicholls St. 48

#4 McNeese St. 78  #5 TX-San Antonio 74 OT

#2 Stephen F Austin 68  #7 Sam Houston 46

#3 Lamar 76  #6 Northwestern State (LA) 69

 

Semifinals

#4 McNeese St. 92  #1 UT-Arlington 72  

#3 Lamar 55  #2 Stephen F Austin 44  

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Lamar 70 #4 McNeese St. 49

 

Automatic Bid – LAMAR 23-11

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

 

Lamar probably has a date in Dayton in two or three days.

 

S W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. 63  #8 Jackson St. 60

#5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 60  #4 Alabama St. 56  

#2 Texas Southern 75  #7 Alabama A&M 62

#6 Alcorn St. 103  #3 Prairie View 79

 

Semifinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. 71  #5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 64

#2 Texas Southern 60  #6 Alcorn St. 55

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Mississippi Valley St. 71  #2 Texas Southern 69

 

Automatic Bid – MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ST. 21-12

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

 

The Delta Devils began the season 1-11 but have gone 20-1 since.  Still, they most likely will be forced to play in Dayton.

 

Summit League

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 71  #8 I P F W 67

#4 Western Illinois 58  #5 North Dakota St. 53

#2 South Dakota St. 77  I U P U I 56

#6 Southern Utah 84  #3 Oakland 82

 

Semifinals

#4 Western Illinois 54  #1 Oral Roberts 53

#2 South Dakota St. 63  #6 Southern Utah 47

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 South Dakota St. 52  #4 Western Illinois 50

 

Automatic Bid – SOUTH DAKOTA ST. 27-7

At-Large Teams –None

Bubble – Oral Roberts

               

Had South Dakota St. and Oral Roberts advanced to the Championship Game, and Oral Roberts’ lost instead of losing to WIU in the semis, ORU would be on the at-large line and not the bubble.  With an RPI of 55, the Golden Eagles are in a precarious position. 

 

Sunbelt

Opening Round

#6 South Alabama 87  #11 Troy 81

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #10 Florida Int’l 63

#9 Arkansas St. 70 #8 Florida Atlantic 55

 

Quarterfinals

#9 Arkansas St. 64  #1 Middle Tennessee 61

#5 North Texas 65  #4 Louisiana-Lafayette 62

#7 Western Kentucky 68  #2 U A L R  63 

#3 Denver 61  #6 South Alabama 50

 

Semifinals

#5 North Texas 76  #9 Arkansas St. 72

#7 Western Kentucky 67  #3 Denver 63

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#7 Western Kentucky 74  #3 Denver 70

 

Automatic Bid –WESTERN KENTUCKY 15-18

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Middle Tennessee

 

This is probably a one-bid league. The top two seeds lost in their first games in this unique tournament played in two separate gyms in the same building.  Middle Tennessee may still be on the bubble with an RPI of 65, but they are more than likely headed to the NIT.  Western Kentucky will be headed to the first round in Dayton.  However, their 15-18 record is very misleading.  The Hilltoppers were supposed to contend for the regular season championship; however, major dissension led to a poor start and a dismissal of head coach Ken McDonald.  Since Ray Harper assumed command, WKU has sported a 10-7 record, and a 7-4 finish.  This team cannot be overlooked in Dayton and could very well advance to the second round.

 

W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Nevada 54  #8 San Jose St. 44

#5 Louisiana Tech 72  #4 Utah St. 70

#2 New Mexico St. 65  #7 Fresno St. 49

#6 Hawaii 72  #3 Idaho 70

 

Semifinals

#5 Louisiana Tech 78  #1 Nevada 73  

#2 New Mexico St. 92  #6 Hawaii 81

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 New Mexico St. 82  #5 Louisiana Tech 57

 

Automatic Bid – NEW MEXICO ST. 26-9

At-Large – None

Bubble – Nevada.

 

Nevada fell to #63 in the RPI, and the Wolfpack are on the cusp of falling off the bubble. 

 

West Coast

Opening Round

#8 Portland 74 #9 Santa Clara 70

 

2nd Round

#5 San Francisco 87  #8 Portland 66

#6 San Diego 76  #7 Pepperdine 54

 

Quarterfinals

#5 San Francisco 67  #4 Loyola Marymount 60

#3 B Y U 73 vs. #6 San Diego 68

 

Semifinals

#1 Saint Mary’s 83  #5 San Francisco 78

#2 Gonzaga 77  #3 B Y U 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Saint Mary’s 78  #2 Gonzaga 74 OT

 

Automatic Bid – SAINT MARY’S 26-5

At-Large Teams – Gonzaga

Bubble – B Y U

 

This has the look of a three-bid league, with the two behemoths and BYU all headed to the Big Dance.  Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga are now the true powers of the West.  If you remember UCLA versus USC or Oregon State in the 1970’s and 1980’s, this is what this rivalry has become.  Both teams could easily advance to the Elite 8.

 

March 10, 2012

NCAA College Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 10 Update

Here is the up-to-date (as of Friday Night, March 9) results of all conference tournaments as well as the pairings for today’s games.

 

America East

Preliminary Round

#9 Binghamton 73  #8 Md.-Balt. Co. 67

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Stony Brook 78  # 9 Binghamton 69

#4 Albany 63  #5 New Hampshire 45

#2 Vermont 50  #7 Maine 40

#6 Hartford 53  #3 Boston U 49 

 

Semifinals

#1 Stony Brook 57  #4 Albany 55

#2 Vermont 77  #6 Hartford 73 2OT

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Stony Brook (21-8) vs. Vermont (22-11)

 

This is a one-bid league.  Stony Brook has won 19 of its last 21 games, but one of those two losses was a 19-point humiliation at the hands of Vermont.  The Sea Wolves defeated the Catamounts at Stony Brook Arena earlier in the season, and that is where this game will be played Saturday afternoon.

 

A C C

Opening Round

#8 Maryland 82  #9 Wake Forest 60

#5 North Carolina St. 78  #12 Boston College 57

#10 Virginia Tech 68  #7 Clemson 63

#6 Miami (FL) 54  #11 Georgia Tech 36

 

Quarterfinals

#1 North Carolina 85  #8 Maryland 69

#5 North Carolina St. 67  #4 Virginia 64

#2 Duke 60  #10 Virginia Tech 56

#3 Florida St. 82  #6 Miami (FL) 71

 

Semifinals

#1 North Carolina (28-4) vs. #5 North Carolina St. (22-11)

#2 Duke (27-5) vs. #3 Florida St. (22-9)

 

At-Large: North Carolina, Duke, Florida St., Virginia

Upper Bubble: North Carolina St.

Lower Bubble: Miami (FL)

 

The North Carolina St.-Virginia game lived up to our predicted billing.  We believe the Wolf Pack have a better than 50-50 chance of getting into the Big Dance.

 

North Carolina knocked off the Wolf Pack by 19 and by 12 during the regular season.  Duke and Florida State split during conference play, with the Seminoles winning in Durham and the Blue Devils winning in Tallahassee.

 

Atlantic Sun

Quarterfinals

#1 Belmont 76  #8 Jacksonville 62

#4 East Tennessee 68  #5 N. Florida 66

#2 Mercer 61  #7 Lipscomb 53

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 71  #3 S. Carolina Upstate 61

 

Semifinals

#1 Belmont 69  #4 East Tennessee 61

#6 Florida Gulf Coast 62 #2 Mercer 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Belmont 83  Florida Gulf Coast 69

 

Automatic Bid – BELMONT 27-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Atlantic 10

1st Round

#8 Massachusetts 92  #9 Duquesne 83

#5 St. Joe’s 80  #12 Charlotte 64

#7 LaSalle 80  #10 Richmond 72

#6 Dayton 67  #11 George Washington 50

 

Quarterfinals

#8 Massachusetts 77  #1 Temple 71

#4 St. Bonaventure 71  #5 St. Joe’s 68

#2 St. Louis 78  #7 LaSalle 71

#3 Xavier 70  #6 Dayton 69

 

Semifinals

#4 St. Bonaventure (18-11) vs. #8 Massachusetts (22-10)

#2 St. Louis (25-6) vs. #3 Xavier (20-11)

 

At-Large: Temple, St. Louis

Upper Bubble:

Lower Bubble: Xavier, St. Joe’s, and Dayton

 

As we told you a couple days ago, the eight quarterfinal teams were not that far apart talent-wise.  All four games were close, exciting contests, and the number one seed was sent home by the number eight seed.  Temple and St. Louis are sure locks for bids, and if one of the other three remaining semifinalist win the tournament, there will be one less at-large bid going to the bubble.

 

Big East

Opening Round

#9 Connecticut 81  #16 Dayton 67

#13 Pittsburgh 73  #12 St. John’s 59

#10 Seton Hall 79  #15 Providence 47

#14 Villanova 70  #11 Rutgers 49

 

2nd Round

#9 Connecticut 71  #8 West Virginia 67 OT

#5 Georgetown 64  #13 Pittsburgh 52

#7 Louisville 61 #10 Seton Hall 55

#6 South Florida 56  #14 Villanova 47

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Syracuse 58  #9 Connecticut 55

#4 Cincinnati 72  #5 Georgetown 70 2OT

#7 Louisville 84  #2 Marquette 71

#3 Notre Dame 57 #6 South Florida 52

 

Semifinals

#4 Cincinnati 71  #1 Syracuse 68  

#7 Louisville 64  #3 Notre Dame 50

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#4 Cincinnati (24-9) vs. #7 Louisville (25-9)

 

At-Large: Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati

Upper Bubble: West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut

Lower Bubble: South Florida

 

This is definitely one championship game to watch.  Both teams are playing their best ball of the year, and this rivalry goes back a very long way through multiple conferences.

 

Big Sky

Quarterfinals

#3 Portland St. 75  #6 Montana St. 53

#4 Eastern Washington 81  #5 Idaho St. 75

 

Semifinals

#1 Montana 74  #4 Eastern Washington 66

#2 Weber St. 69 #3 Portland St. 63

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Montana 85 #2 Weber St. 66

 

Automatic Bid: MONTANA 25-6

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

This is a one-bid league, but both Montana and Weber State are talented enough to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. With an RPI around 70, the Wildcats are probably not on the bubble.

 

Big South

Preliminary Round

#8 High Point 68  #9 Gardner-Webb 58

#7 VMI 55  #10 Radford 53

 

Quarterfinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 86  #8 High Point 61

#4 Charleston Sou. 88  #5 Liberty 74

#6 Winthrop 71  #3 Campbell 55

#7 VMI 85  #2 Coastal Carolina 68

 

Semifinals

#1 UNC-Asheville 91  #4 Charleston Sou. 64

#7 VMI 75  #6 Winthrop 55

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 UNC-Asheville  80  #7 VMI 64

 

Automatic Bid – UNC-ASHEVILLE 24-9

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

Big Ten

Opening Round

#8 Iowa 64  #9 Illinois 61

#5 Indiana 75  #12 Penn State 58

#10 Minnesota 75  #7 Northwestern 68

#6 Purdue 79  #11 Nebraska 61

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Michigan St. 92  #8 Iowa 75

#4 Wisconsin 79  #5 Indiana 71

#2 Michigan 73  #10 Minnesota 69

#3 Ohio St. 88  #6 Purdue 71

 

Semifinals

#1 Michigan St. (25-7) vs. #4 Wisconsin (24-8)

#2 Michigan (24-8) vs. #3 Ohio St. (26-6)

 

At-Large: Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue

Upper Bubble:

Lower Bubble: Northwestern

 

The folks in Indianapolis can claim their final four is as good as the Big East’s.  They might be wrong, because this one could be better!

 

The top four seeds advanced, and this is definitely the toast of the tournaments.  Any of these four could cut down the nets Sunday.  The cherry on top is that yesterday’s games were high-scoring shootouts reminiscent of the old run and gun days of Big Ten days of yore.

 

Big 12

Opening Round

#9 Texas A&M 62  #8 Oklahoma 53

#7 Oklahoma St. 76  #10 Texas Tech 60

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Kansas 83  #9 Texas A&M 66

#4 Baylor 82  #5 Kansas St. 74

#2 Missouri 88  #7 Oklahoma St. 70

#3 Iowa St. 65  #6 Texas 71

 

Semifinals

#4 Baylor 81  #1 Kansas 72  

#2 Missouri 81  #6 Texas 67

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Missouri (29-4) vs. #4 Baylor (27-6)

 

At-Large: Kansas, Missouri, Iowa St., Baylor, Kansas St.

Upper Bubble: Texas

Lower Bubble: None

 

Missouri has a lot to play for today.  A win over Baylor more than likely moves the Tigers to a number one seed.  However, Baylor will be tough to defeat three times in one season.  MU beat BU by 15 and by one during the regular season.

 

Big West

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Beach St. 80  #8 UC-Davis 46

#4 Cal Poly SLO 66  #5 UC-Riverside 54

#7 UC-Irvine 65  #2 Cal State Fullerton 59

#3 U C S B 72  #6 Pacific 52

 

Semifinals

#1 Long Beach St. (23-8) vs. #7 UC-Irvine (12-19)

#3 U C S B (19-9) vs. #4 Cal Poly SLO (18-15)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: Long Beach St.

Lower Bubble: None

 

Long Beach State could possibly earn an at-large bid if they lose today or tomorrow, but the 49ers should have minimal competition in the semifinals and not much more in the finals.

 

Colonial Athletic

Opening Round

#9 UNC-Wilmington 70  #8 James Madison 59

#5 Delaware 72  #12 Towson St. 65

#6 Georgia St. 85  #11 Hofstra 50

#7 Northeastern 57  #10 William & Mary 49

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Drexel 59  #9 UNC-Wilmington 47

#4 Old Dominion 88  #5 Delaware 74

#3 George Mason 61  #6 Georgia St. 59

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 75  #10 William & Mary 65

 

Semifinals

#1 Drexel 68  #4 Old Dominion 51

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 74  #3 George Mason 64

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Virginia Commonwealth 59 #1 Drexel 56

 

Automatic Bid – VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 28-6

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Drexel

 

 

Drexel has a chance of earning an at-large bid, but their RPI is on the low side at 68.

 

Conference USA

Opening Round

#5 U A B 72  #12 Tulane 64

#8 U T E P 67 #9 Houston 62 OT

#10 East Carolina 68  #7 Rice 66 

#6 Marshall 74  #11 S M U 56

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Memphis 65  #8 U T E P 47

#4 Central Florida 51  #5 U A B 43

#2 Southern Mississippi 81  #10 East Carolina 78

#6 Marshall 105  #3 Tulsa 100  3 OT

 

Semifinals

#1 Memphis 83  #4 Central Florida 52

#6 Marshall 73  #2 Southern Mississippi 62

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Memphis (25-8) vs. #6 Marshall (21-12)

 

At-Large: Memphis

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: Southern Miss

 

 

Central Florida will be placed in the lower bubble with a win today against the top seed in the conference tournament.  Should Central Florida and Marshall meet in tomorrow’s championship game, the bubble will burst for somebody else.

 

Horizon League

Opening Round

#4 Milwaukee 68  #9 Illinois-Chi. 55

#5 Butler 70  #8 Wright St. 52

#3 Detroit 80  #10 Loyola (Chi) 71

#6 Youngstown 77  #7 Green Bay 60

 

Quarterfinals

#5 Butler 71 #4 Milwaukee 49

#3 Detroit 93 #6 Youngstown St. 76

 

Semifinals

#1 Valparaiso 65  #5 Butler 46

#3 Detroit 63  #2 Cleveland St. 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Detroit 70  #1 Valparaiso 50

 

Automatic Bid – DETROIT 22-13

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

This is a one-bid league.  Neither Valpo, Cleveland State nor Butler will  earn at-large bids.

 

M A A C

Preliminary Round

#8 Marist 64 #9 St. Peter’s 57

#7 Niagara 80 #10 Canisius 70

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Iona 87  #8 Marist 63

#4 Fairfield 65  #5 Rider 63

#2 Loyola (MD) 86  #7 Niagara 73

#6 Siena 84  #3 Manhattan 82

 

Semifinals

#4 Fairfield 85  #1 Iona 75

#2 Loyola (MD) 70  #6 Siena 60

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Loyola (MD) 48  #4 Fairfield 44

 

Automatic Bid – LOYOLA (MD) 24-8

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

This is a one-bid league.  Iona played their way out of the Big Dance and into the NIT.

 

M A C

Opening Round

#12 Northern Illinois 55  #5 Eastern Michigan 52  

#8 Western Michigan 69  #9 Ball St. 63

#7 Toledo 60  #10 (Miami (O) 53

#11 Central Michigan 54  #6 Bowling Green 53  

 

2nd Round

#8 Western Michigan 71  #12 Northern Illinois 54

#7 Toledo 75  #11 Central Michigan 72

 

Quarterfinals

#4 Kent St. 76  #8 Western Michigan 72

#3 Ohio 65  #7 Toledo 57

 

Semifinals

#1 Akron 78  #4 Kent St. 74

#3 Ohio 77  #2  Buffalo 74

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Akron (22-10) vs. #3 Ohio (25-7)

 

Akron is now #52 in the RPI and Ohio is #60.  The loser of this game will fall a few spots, but they should have a small chance of getting in as one of the last four in.  That small chance is close to a slim and none chance.

 

M E A C

Opening Round

#8 Hampton 69 #9 Morgan St. 65

#5 North Carolina Central 60 #12 Md. Eastern Shore 43

#4 Bethune-Cookman 62 #13 South Carolina St. 53

#11 Florida A& M 74  #6 Coppin St. 72

#10 Howard 51  #7 North Carolina A&T 50

 

Quarterfinals

#8 Hampton 59  #1 Savannah St. 46

#4 Bethune-Cookman 60  #5 North Carolina Central 59

#2 Norfolk St. 71 #7 Howard 61

#11 Florida A&M 65  #3 Delaware St. 55  

 

Semfinals

#4 Bethune-Cookman 81  #8 Hampton 72

#2 Norfolk St. 58  #11 Florida A&M 46

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Norfolk St. (24-9) vs. #4 Bethune-Cookman (18-16)

 

This is a one-bid league.  With Savannah State suffering an early exit, only Norfolk State can possibly avoid a trip to Dayton for the first round.

 

Missouri Valley

Opening Round

#8 Indiana St. 66  #9 Southern Illinois 51

#7 Drake 65  #10 Bradley 49

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Wichita St. 72 #8 Indiana St. 48

#4 Illinois St. 54 #5 Northern Iowa 42

#2 Creighton 68 vs. #7 Drake 61

#3 Evansville 72 vs. #6 Missouri St. 64

 

Semifinals

#4 Illinois St. 65  #1 Wichita St. 64

#2 Creighton 99  #3 Evansville 71

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Creighton 83  #4 Illinois St. 79 OT

 

Automatic Bid – Creighton 27-5

At-Large – Wichita St. 27-5

Bubble – None

 

Mountain West

Quarterfinals

#1 San Diego St. 65  #8 Boise St. 62

#4 Colorado St. 81  #5 T C U 60

#2 New Mexico 79  #7 Air Force 64

#3 U N L V 56  #6 Wyoming 48

 

Semifinals

#1 San Diego St. 79  #4 Colorado St. 69

#2 New Mexico 72  #3 U N L V 67

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 San Diego St. (26-6) vs. #2 New Mexico (26-6)

 

At-Large: San Diego St., UNLV, New Mexico

Upper Bubble: Colorado St.

Lower Bubble: None

 

Anything other than four bids would be disappointing and even ridiculous.  Colorado State’s RPI is #24, and the Rams are tournament-worthy.

 

Northeast

Quarterfinals

#1 Long Island 80  #8 Sacred Heart 68

#5 Quinnipiac 80  #4 St. Francis (NY) 72

#3 Robert Morris 87  #6 Monmouth 68

#2 Wagner 87  #7 Central Conn. St. 77

 

Semifinals

#1 Long Island 78 #5 Quinnipiac 75

#3 Robert Morris 71  #2 Wagner 64

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Long Island 90  #3 Robert Morris 73

 

Automatic Bid: LONG ISLAND 25-8

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

Wagner’s slim chances for getting in as a wildcard team went bye-bye with their semifinal loss to RMU.

 

LIU enters the Big Dance winning 20 of their last 22 games.

 

Ohio Valley

Opening Round

#5 Southeast Missouri 75  #8 E. Kentucky 65

#7 Jacksonville St. 75  #6 Austin Peay 70

 

Quarterfinals

#4 Tennessee Tech 77 #5 Southeast Missouri 73

#3 Morehead St. 68  #7 Jacksonville St. 54

 

Semifinals

#1 Murray St. 78  #4 Tennessee Tech 58

#2 Tennessee St. 59 #3 Morehead St. 52

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Murray St. 54  #2 Tennessee St. 52

 

Automatic Bid – Murray St. 30-1

At-Large – None

Bubble – None

 

Murray State should receive a #4 or #5 seed, a #6 at worst.

 

Pac-12

Opening Round

#9 Oregon St. 69  #8 Washington St. 64

#5 U C L A 55  #12 U S C 40

#7 Stanford 85  #10 Arizona St. 65

#6 Colorado 53  #11 Utah 41

 

Quarterfinals

#9 Oregon State 86  #1 Washington 84

#4 Arizona 66  #5 U C L A 58

#2 California 77  #7 Stanford 71

#6 Colorado 63  #3 Oregon 62  

 

Semifinals

#4 Arizona 72  #9 Oregon St. 61

#6 Colorado 70  #2 California 59

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#4 Arizona (23-10) vs. #6 Colorado (22-11)

 

At-Large:

Upper Bubble: California

Lower Bubble: Colorado, Washington, Arizona, Oregon

 

The only sure thing is that today’s championship game winner will get an automatic bid.  California’s RPI is #36, and that should be enough to get a bid, but stranger things have happened before.  We cannot call them a lock for an at-large bid.

 

The RPIs for the other four teams are iffy.  Oregon is #66; Washington is #68, Colorado is #70, and Arizona is #76.  Today’s loser will stay in the 70’s, which is the lowest range possible for an at-large bid.

 

Colorado’s defense has been swarming in the first three games, and the Buffaloes have not played this type of defense since the 1960’s.  CU is our bet to cut down the nets Saturday.

 

Patriot League

Quarterfinals

#1 Bucknell 87  #8 Navy 63

#5 Lafayette 84  #4 Holy Cross 76

#2 Lehigh 70 #7 Colgate 57

#3 American 57  #6 Army 40

 

Semifinals

#1 Bucknell 79 #5 Lafayette 52

#2 Lehigh 85 #3 American 66

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 Lehigh 82  #1 Bucknell 77  

 

Automatic Bid: LEHIGH 26-7

At-Large: None

Bubble: None

 

The Mountain Hawks search for the first NCAA Tournament win in their fifth trip to the Big Dance, and they have the one-two punch in C J McCollum and Gabe Knutson.  Lehigh lost at Michigan State by just nine points earlier in the year, and they enter the NCAA Tournament having won eight games in a row and 12 of 13.

 

Southern

Opening Round

#5N Appalachian St. 93  #4S College of Charleston 81

#3N Western Carolina 68  #6S Citadel 56

#5S Furman 75  #4N Samford 66

#3S Georgia Southern 76  #6N Chattanooga 70

 

Quarterfinals

#1N UNC-Greensboro 65  #5N Appalachian St. 55

#3N Western Carolina 82 #2S Wofford 59

#1S Davidson 73  #5S Furman 54

#2N Elon 65  #3S Georgia Southern 58

 

Semifinals

#3N Western Carolina 82  #1N UNC-Greensboro 77

#1S Davidson 83  #2N Elon 67

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1S Davidson  93 #1N UNC-Greensboro 91

 

Automatic Bid – DAVIDSON 25-7

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – None

 

 

Davidson might not have earned a ticket as an at-large team.  Tell that to Kansas coach Bill Self, and he would say you were crazy.

 

S E C

Opening Round

#8 L S U 70  #9 Arkansas 54

#5 Alabama 63  #12 South Carolina 57

#7 Ole Miss 68  #10 Auburn 54

#11 Georgia 71  #6 Mississippi St. 61 

 

Quarterfinals

#1 Kentucky 60  #8 L S U 51

#4 Florida 66  #5 Alabama 63

#7 Ole Miss 77  #2 Tennessee 72 OT

#3 Vanderbilt 63  #11 Georgia 41

 

Semifinals

#1 Kentucky (31-1) vs. #4 Florida (23-9)

#3 Vanderbilt (22-10) vs. #7 Ole Miss (20-12)

 

At-Large: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt

Upper Bubble: Alabama

Lower Bubble: Ole Miss, Mississippi St.

 

Ole Miss is the hot team that could surprise and make it to the championship game on Sunday.  The Rebels would move to the upper bubble with a win today over an inconsistent Vanderbilt team.

 

Florida does not match up well with Kentucky.  If the Gators pull off the big upset, it will be because the Wildcats did not show up to play for a second consecutive day.

 

Tennessee is now NIT-bound, and Mississippi State is probably headed that way as well.  We cannot see the committee taking the Bulldogs if they do not take their rival Rebels as well.

 

Southland

Quarterfinals

#1 UT-Arlington 96  #8 Nicholls St. 48

#4 McNeese St. 78  #5 TX-San Antonio 74 OT

#2 Stephen F Austin 68  #7 Sam Houston 46

#3 Lamar 76  #6 Northwestern State (LA) 69

 

Semifinals

#4 McNeese St. 92  #1 UT-Arlington 72  

#3 Lamar 55  #2 Stephen F Austin 44  

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#3 Lamar (22-11) vs. #4 McNeese St. (17-14)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

 

The top two seeds fell in the semifinals, and now the Southland champion may be looking to make reservations in Dayton.

 

S W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. 63  #8 Jackson St. 60

#5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 60  #4 Alabama St. 56  

#2 Texas Southern 75  #7 Alabama A&M 62

#6 Alcorn St. 103  #3 Prairie View 79

 

Semifinals

#1 Mississippi Valley St. 71  #5 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 64

#2 Texas Southern 60  #6 Alcorn St. 55

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Mississippi Valley St. (20-12) vs. #2 Texas Southern (15-17)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: None

 

Today’s championship game winner will be headed to Dayton for the opening round.  At least, the top two seeds advanced to the finals, and it gives the SWAC a fighting chance to compete in the “play-in.”

 

Summit League

Quarterfinals

#1 Oral Roberts 71  #8 I P F W 67

#4 Western Illinois 58  #5 North Dakota St. 53

#2 South Dakota St. 77  I U P U I 56

#6 Southern Utah 84  #3 Oakland 82

 

Semifinals

#4 Western Illinois 54  #1 Oral Roberts 53

#2 South Dakota St. 63  #6 Southern Utah 47

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 South Dakota St. 52  #4 Western Illinois 50

Automatic Bid – SOUTH DAKOTA ST. 27-7

At-Large Teams –None

Bubble – Oral Roberts

               

Had South Dakota St. and Oral Roberts advanced to the Championship Game, and Oral Roberts’ lost instead of losing to WIU in the semis, ORU would be on the at-large line and not the bubble.  With an RPI of 55, the Golden Eagles are in a precarious position. 

 

Sunbelt

Opening Round

#6 South Alabama 87  #11 Troy 81

#7 Western Kentucky 67 #10 Florida Int’l 63

#9 Arkansas St. 70 #8 Florida Atlantic 55

 

Quarterfinals

#9 Arkansas St. 64  #1 Middle Tennessee 61

#5 North Texas 65  #4 Louisiana-Lafayette 62

#7 Western Kentucky 68  #2 U A L R  63 

#3 Denver 61  #6 South Alabama 50

 

Semifinals

#5 North Texas 76  #9 Arkansas St. 72

#7 Western Kentucky 67  #3 Denver 63

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#7 Western Kentucky 74  #3 Denver 70

 

Automatic Bid –WESTERN KENTUCKY 15-18

At-Large Teams – None

Bubble – Middle Tennessee

 

This is probably a one-bid league. The top two seeds lost in their first games in this unique tournament played in two separate gyms in the same building.  Middle Tennessee may still be on the bubble with an RPI of 65, but they are more than likely headed to the NIT.  Western Kentucky will be headed to the first round in Dayton.  However, their 15-18 record is very misleading.  The Hilltoppers were supposed to contend for the regular season championship; however, major dissension led to a poor start and a dismissal of head coach Ken McDonald.  Since Ray Harper assumed command, WKU has sported a 10-7 record, and a 7-4 finish.  This team cannot be overlooked in Dayton and could very well advance to the second round.

 

W A C

Quarterfinals

#1 Nevada 54  #8 San Jose St. 44

#5 Louisiana Tech 72  #4 Utah St. 70

#2 New Mexico St. 65  #7 Fresno St. 49

#6 Hawaii 72  #3 Idaho 70

 

Semifinals

#1 Nevada (26-5) vs. #5 Louisiana Tech (17-15)

#2 New Mexico St. (24-9) vs. #6 Hawaii (16-15)

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#2 New Mexico St. (25-9) vs. #5 Louisiana Tech (18-15)

 

At-Large: None

Upper Bubble: None

Lower Bubble: Nevada.

 

Nevada fell to #63 in the RPI, and the Wolfpack are on the cusp of falling off the bubble.  New Mexico State is at #69, so their chances to get in as an at-large if they lose today are nil.

 

West Coast

Opening Round

#8 Portland 74 #9 Santa Clara 70

 

2nd Round

#5 San Francisco 87  #8 Portland 66

#6 San Diego 76  #7 Pepperdine 54

 

Quarterfinals

#5 San Francisco 67  #4 Loyola Marymount 60

#3 B Y U 73 vs. #6 San Diego 68

 

Semifinals

#1 Saint Mary’s 83  #5 San Francisco 78

#2 Gonzaga 77  #3 B Y U 58

 

CHAMPIONSHIP

#1 Saint Mary’s 78  #2 Gonzaga 74 OT

 

Automatic Bid – SAINT MARY’S 26-5

At-Large Teams – Gonzaga

Bubble – B Y U

 

This has the look of a three-bid league, with the two behemoths and BYU all headed to the Big Dance.  Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga are now the true powers of the West.  If you remember UCLA versus USC or Oregon State in the 1970’s and 1980’s, this is what this rivalry has become.  Both teams could easily advance to the Elite 8.

 Coming Saturday Evening: We release Bracketnomics 505–the 2012 edition with more detailed grading than ever before.  We’ve made it even more scientific than ever!  Tell all your friends, but only those playing in a different bracket contest than you.

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