American Athletic Conference Preview

Today, we preview the strongest of the Group of 5 conferences.  In a couple of years, we might be referring to the American Athletic Conference as the top of the “Tier 2” leagues.  It would not be surprising to see some of the Big 12 teams and some of the AAC teams merging into one league.

Until then, the AAC remains the conference where the top team is usually the leading contender for the guaranteed Group of 5 team in a New Year’s Six bowl.  Last year, Cincinnati ran the table in the abbreviated season and then beat Tulsa in an exciting game to move to 9-0 and earn the New Year’s Six bowl bid against Georgia in the Peach Bowl.  Playing basically a road game against the in-state school, the Bearcats had a chance to win the game and fell just short.

Bearcats coach Luke Fickell welcomes back a roster that has a little rebuilding to do, but the talent-level should be a little stronger thanks to some excellent recruiting classes bringing underclassmen to the roster.

UC has back-to-back games at Indiana and Notre Dame after beginning the year with winnable home games.  If the Bearcats can pick off the Hoosiers and Fighting Irish, they could find themselves in the same position as last year–in the hunt for a Playoff bid but probably looking at a #6 or #7 final rating and a repeat trip to a New Year’s Six bowl.

The Bearcats cannot be counted out this year against the big dogs on their schedule.  A defense that gave up 16.8 points and 325 yards per game last year, could be a little better in 2021.  The secondary coverage should be one of the five best in the nation, led by the top cover corner in the nation in Ahmad Gardner.

The only question for this year’s UC team is the offensive line, which must be rebuilt with more underclassmen than upperclassmen.  In a season where other teams might field 23-year old seniors, this could come to haunt the Bearcats.

Central Florida undergoes a big change as Josh Heupel and his up-tempo, high-powered spread offense have moved to Tennessee, while former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn brings his different style of spread offense to Orlando.  The former offense was driving on the interstate in open country, while the new offense will be like the old blue highway with winding roads and hilly terrain.  It won’t be as flashy, but the Knights could benefit by playing defense a lot less than they did in recent years.  This is going to benefit UCF’s young defense that must break in eight new starters, including four excellent defensive backs.

The UCF offense can become the team’s best defense if they can sustain long drives.  In Heupel’s time in Orlando, UCF had no trouble moving the ball, but they scored so quickly, the defense fatigued.  In the Knights’ three losses last year, second half defense was the reason they lost those games by eight to Tulsa, one to Memphis, and three to Cincinnati.

This is year three for Dana Holgorsen, and he’s 7-13 in two years at the helm.  This is a school that made it public that 8-4 records were grounds for divorce with its head coach, so Holgorsen better hope he can turn things around this year, or he might receive a lump sum alimony check with orders to vacate the premises.

An Air Raid style offense that struggles to pass the ball is an anomaly.  Houston also had a problem holding onto the ball in 2020, and the defense was overly tasked due to a lot of short offensive drives that turned the ball over via fumble, interception, or punt.  

What hurt the Cougars most last year was never knowing if they were going to play from week to week.  They were like understudies when the star had a cold.  They prepared all week and then found out on Friday that their game was cancelled.  It happened eight times!

Quarterback Clayton Tune has the potential to run the Air Raid.  Houston needs to have an extra receiver step up to complement Jeremy Singleton and Nathaniel Dell.  

Defensively, we expect the UH stop troops to show considerable progress this year, especially if the Cougars cut down on the turnovers.  They gave up slightly less than 400 yards per game and 32 points per game in 2020. With most of the top players returning, those numbers could drop to 350-370 yards and 25-28 points per game.  And, what might that bring UH?  Maybe an 8-4 record, and we know what that did to former coaches Major Applewhite and Tony Levine.

Tulsa was the big surprise of the AAC last year.  After multiple years languishing near or at the bottom of the standings, the Golden Hurricane discovered how to play defense.  TU surrendered 21.6 points and 333 yards per game, holding Oklahoma State to 16, Navy to 6, undefeated league champion Cincinnati to 27, and Mississippi State to 28 in the Armed Forces Bowl.

That defense returns 10 starters, so opponents are going to be in for a fight trying to score points on the Hurricane in 2021.  If the offense can live up to expectations, then TU might repeat with another trip to the AAC Championship Game.  Quarterback Davis Brin came off the bench as the backup last year against Tulane and led TU on three consecutive touchdown drives, and then led his team to an overtime victory.  If he can play an entire season like he did in that quarter and a half, Tulsa might be playing at Cincinnati in November with first place on the line.

Tulane has slowly improved year by year during coach Willie Fritz’s tenure in the Crescent City.  Now entering year six, Fritz has a minor defensive rebuild to perform, but the offense should remain potent after averaging 35 points per game and leading the league in rushing.  This is a team that may be a year away from contending for a spot in the conference championship game, and we expect the Green Wave to remain a .500 team this year.

East Carolina coach Mike Houston was the Nick Saban of FCS football during his tenure at James Madison.  Prior to that, he did the inevitable and won at The Citadel.  After a 4-8 record in year one at ECU, his 2020 shortened season record of 3-6 included consecutive wins over Temple and SMU to finish the 2020 season.  This just might be the year the Pirates cross the .500 threshold and return to a bowl for the first time since 2014.  10 starters return to both sides of the ball.  Houston’s short passing game is almost an aerial version of Woody Hayes’ three yards and a cloud of dust.  By spreading the field and throwing quick passes for 3 to 7 yards with an occasional run after catch of another 10-15 yards, it can be difficult to bend and not break for any defense.

The key will be the defense.  If the more experienced stop side can shave a touchdown off its 2020 average, that might be enough for the Pirates to break even in the league.  The problem is that ECU plays Appalachian State, South Carolina, and Marshall out of conference.

SMU enjoyed a 7-3 season that ended with a Frisco Bowl bid that never came to fruition due to Covid.  With nine starters returning to the attack side, one would think that the Mustangs are poised to top their 39 points per game average.  But, the biggest reason why this team moved the ball with relative ease last year is one of the two not returning.  Former Oklahoma backup Tanner Mordecai might be a talented passer, but he isn’t going to match what Shane Buechele did in Dallas.  With an expected drop in offense, and a defense that at best will be as good as 2020, expect the Mustangs to take a step backward this year, but they could still earn a bowl bid.

Since Justin Fuente won 19 games his last two years at Memphis and then took the Virginia Tech job, pundits have predicted the downfall of the Tigers’ fortunes.  Mike Norvell replaced Fuente and guided the Tigers to a Cotton Bowl berth before he took the Florida State job two years ago.  Ryan Silverfield took over last year, and during Covid, UM’s best offensive players opted out.  Memphis still managed to put together an 8-3 record that included a bowl win over Florida Atlantic.

Now, the Tigers face an issue at quarterback as former QB Brady White gambled on the NFL Draft, went undrafted, signed a free agent contract with the Tennessee Titans, and did not make it to the preseason.  Two transfers from Power 5 schools expect to vie for the starting QB job this year.  Former Arizona Wildcat Grant Gunnell and former LSU Tiger Peter Parrish are competing for the job, and we expect Gunnell to be under center when Memphis runs its first play of the 2021 season.  Considering that he had very little help at Arizona, as the Wildcats struggled to compete in the Pac-12, Gunnell looked decent enough to believe he can guide Memphis to a possible break-even or slightly winning record.

South Florida hired former Clemson offensive coordinator Jeff Scott to try to return the Bulls’ program to where it was in the prior decade.  Unfortunately, Scott couldn’t bring any of Clemson’s All-Americans to Tampa.  After going 1-8 with the lone win coming against FCS The Citadel, there is nowhere to go but up for the Bulls this year.  The offense has a chance to be improved this year, but there’s one small problem.  Scott still does not know who will be his starting quarterback as August practices have been underway for a week.  The defense is missing several key parts from a unit that was downright weak in 2020.  Against FBS competition, USF gave up 44.1 points and more than 450 yards per game.  

USF has a difficult schedule this year with games out of conference against North Carolina State, Florida, and BYU.  Winning three games would be considered a major advancement this year.

Navy was one of the most disappointing teams last year, but Coach Ken Niumtalolo failed to get the Midshipmen ready to play to start the season due to Covid concerns.  After an opening game pasting at the hands of BYU, Navy rebounded to get to 3-2, but then they dropped their final five games, scoring just 13 points in the last three.

The 2021 picture is anything but rosy for Navy.  The offense suffered severe losses, as players that would normally come back for an extra year at other schools are starting their military commitment.  When a triple option team has to break in a new quarterback, two new slotbacks, and three new offensive linemen, it is expected that the offense will suffer a drop in production.  Navy only scored 16.6 points per game and rushed for just 178 yards per game, an all-time low in Niumatololo’s 13 years.  Now, Navy embarks on a 2021 season with its toughest schedule in many years.  Marshall, Air Force, Notre Dame, and Army represent one of the toughest out of conference slates in all of FBS football, as all four should earn bowls this year.  This looks like a rough year in Annapolis.

After several really good years under Al Golden, Steve Addazio, Matt Rhule, and Geoff Collins, Temple looked like they pulled off a minor coup when they hired former Northern Illinois head coach Rod Carey to keep the good times rolling in Philly.  After an 8-5 season in 2019, Temple looked more like the 2003 and 2004 program that was kicked out of the old Big East Conference last year.  A 1-6 season almost became an 0-7 season, but the Owls benefitted from USF mistakes to pull out a 2-point win.

One would think that the program couldn’t be worse than last year, but the Owls have major rebuilding projects on both sides of the ball this year.

On the positive side, if you can call it that, Temple was one of the most affected teams by Covid last year.  They almost didn’t play at all and only played their first game in Mid-October, losing narrowly to a Navy team playing its fourth game of the season.  2021 should be another tough one at Lincoln Financial Field.

Here is how the American Athletic media voted at the preseason conference meetings.

2021 American Athletic Conference Preseason Media Poll

		Team (First-Place Votes)	Points
	1.	Cincinnati (22)	262
	2.	UCF (2)	241
	3.	SMU	188
	4.	Houston	181
	5.	Memphis	168
	6.	Tulsa	153
	7.	Tulane	132
	8.	East Carolina	85
		Navy	85
	10.	Temple	46
	11.	South Florida	43

The PiRate Ratings are not that different.

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	116.3	115.3	118.0	116.5
UCF	102.5	101.2	104.8	102.8
Houston	101.1	99.5	101.6	100.7
Tulsa	100.2	100.3	99.7	100.1
Tulane	98.8	97.5	100.6	99.0
East Carolina	95.3	94.3	96.2	95.3
SMU	94.3	95.4	95.4	95.0
Memphis	92.4	92.8	94.3	93.2
USF	91.0	89.7	90.6	90.4
Navy	90.8	90.0	90.3	90.3
Temple	80.6	82.4	81.9	81.6
AAC Averages	96.7	96.2	97.6	96.8

The PiRate Ratings are not designed to predict won-loss records for a season, as they have a use by date of the next week’s games.  Nevertheless, we issue predictions just for the fun of it.

American Athletic	Conf.	Overall
Cincinnati	8-0	12-1*
Central Florida	6-2	9-4
Houston	6-2	10-2
Tulsa	6-2	8-4
Memphis	5-3	8-4
Tulane	4-4	6-6
East Carolina	4-4	5-7
SMU	3-5	6-6
Navy	1-7	2-10
South Florida	1-7	2-10
Temple	0-8	2-10
* Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game

Saturday’s College Football TV Schedule

This weekly addition to the PiRate Ratings is supposed to be the easiest edition we put out, but not this year. The TV schedule has already changed twice today after changing on Monday when Baylor postponed their game with Oklahoma St. With the cancellation of Vanderbilt and Missouri, one switch was made. Then, when it became official that Florida and LSU were moving to December 12, another change was made.

So, this is the TV schedule as of Wednesday evening, Eastern Time. We suggest you look at this feature again later in the week if other games are postponed. If the schedule changes, we will do our best to update it all the way until Saturday morning.

Time ET	Network	Home	Visitors	Entertainment Value
12:00 PM	ABC	Georgia Tech	Clemson	Tech turnovers could make this super blowout
12:00 PM	ESPN	South Carolina	Auburn	Should be rather close game–loser’s coach on hot seat
12:00 PM	ESPN2	E. Carolina	Navy	Replaces Tulsa-Cinti.
12:00 PM	FOX	West Virginia	Kansas	Probably a dud game
12:00 PM	SECN	Tennessee	Kentucky	Vols own Cats in this series, but an even matchup
12:00 PM	FSN	Syracuse	Liberty	Flames could win this one and maybe by a lot
12:00 PM	ESPNU	South Alabama	Texas St.	Only if you are a fan of one of the teams
12:00 PM	ACCN	Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	Both teams coming off emotional losses
1:30 PM	CBSSN	UTSA	Army	Game should be over quickly–maybe 120 plays
2:30 PM	NBC	Notre Dame	Louisville	Irish need to win big to let Clemson know they are there
3:30 PM	ABC	Memphis	Central Florida	Could it be a 90 to 100-point total?
3:30 PM	SECN	Arkansas	Ole Miss	Before Hogs were in SEC, this was a rivalry game
3:30 PM	FSN	NC St.	Duke	A backyard brawl that should make Pack 4-1
4:00 PM	ESPN	Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	All’s not well in Starkville all of a sudden
4:00 PM	ACCN	Wake Forest	Virginia	Expect a close game but maybe not entertaining
4:00 PM	ESPN2	Georgia Southern	U Mass	The Minutemen play their first game of the year
6:00 PM	CBSSN	Louisiana Tech	Marshall	Winner of this game most likely wins CUSA regular season
7:30 PM	ABC	Florida St.	North Carolina	UNC needs to top half a hundred again to be a contender
7:30 PM	ESPN2	UTEP	Southern Miss.	CANCELLED
8:00 PM	CBS	Alabama	Georgia	Maybe the Regular Season Game of the Year!
8:00 PM	ESPNU	Charlotte	Florida Int’l.	CANCELLED
8:00 PM	ACCN	Virginia Tech	Boston College	Nice game but not Bama & Dogs

Coming tomorrow: our for entertainment purposes only handicapping selections that have accidentally made a decent imaginary profit this year. We must be due for a big losing week, but maybe we can back into some additional winners. We heard from a few of you that went against our warning and actually wagered on some longshot parlays that happened to win last week. Please do not think for one second that we can be this lucky again. Don’t wager real money on our fun picks!

PiRate Ratings–College Football September 13, 2020

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Week 3	Sep. 18-19
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma St.	Tulsa	16.9	18.1	19.6
Georgia St.	Louisiana	-16.9	-16.7	-17.0
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	11.9	11.7	11.5
Western Ky.	Liberty	11.2	9.4	11.4
Tulane	Navy	-1.6	0.6	-0.5
Duke	Boston College	3.0	3.9	2.4
Baylor	Houston	4.3	5.9	6.0
Marshall	Appalachian St.	-2.0	-1.4	-4.3
Notre Dame	USF	24.3	24.6	26.1
North Carolina	Charlotte	26.5	26.6	27.5
Georgia Tech	UCF	-7.1	-8.2	-9.4
Ga. Southern	Fla. Atlantic	12.9	12.2	14.1
Middle Tenn.	Troy	-1.5	-2.5	-1.7
North Texas	SMU	-21.5	-19.8	-20.1
UL-Monroe	Texas St.	4.5	4.1	4.6
Louisville	Miami (Fla.)	11.2	9.1	10.0
Southern Miss.	La. Tech	3.4	2.5	0.9
NC St.	Wake Forest	-3.3	-4.2	-3.3

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Coastal Carolina	Campbell	22.3
Cincinnati	Austin Peay	27.4
UTSA	S F Austin	12.0
Clemson	Citadel	47.5
Arkansas St.	Cent. Arkansas	11.8
UTEP	Abilene Chr.	-0.7

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Clemson	123.7	124.7	127.6	125.4	ACC
2	L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8	SEC-W
3	Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3	SEC-W
4	Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8	SEC-E
5	Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9	SEC-E
6	Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5	SEC-W
7	Oklahoma	117.1	117.1	117.3	117.2	B12
8	Notre Dame	117.2	116.2	117.2	116.9	ACC
9	Texas	116.3	115.1	116.4	115.9	B12
10	Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8	SEC-W
11	Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3	B12
12	N. Carolina	111.9	112.4	113.3	112.5	ACC
13	Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8	SEC-E
14	Louisville	110.7	111.3	109.7	110.5	ACC
15	Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9	ACC
16	UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8	AAC
17	Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2	SEC-E
18	Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1	AAC
19	S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3	SEC-E
20	Memphis	109.0	107.7	108.2	108.3	AAC
21	Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1	B12
22	Iowa St.	107.9	107.1	107.5	107.5	B12
23	Miss. St.	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1	SEC-W
24	Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4	ACC
25	BYU	106.7	105.2	106.3	106.1	Ind.
26	Louisiana	106.2	105.7	106.2	106.0	SUN-W
27	Florida St.	105.5	103.9	105.4	104.9	ACC
28	Pittsburgh	103.9	105.7	104.1	104.6	ACC
29	T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3	B12
30	Kansas St.	104.2	103.0	104.1	103.8	B12
31	Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7	AAC
32	Ole Miss	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4	SEC-W
33	Appal. St.	102.8	101.9	103.9	102.9	SUN-E
34	Miami (Fla.)	101.5	104.1	101.7	102.4	ACC
35	W. Virginia	101.4	101.5	101.5	101.5	B12
36	Duke	100.6	101.3	100.0	100.6	ACC
37	SMU	100.6	100.1	99.6	100.1	AAC
38	Georgia Tech	100.6	99.9	99.6	100.0	ACC
39	Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5	SEC-E
40	Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5	ACC
41	Wake Forest	98.3	99.4	98.3	98.7	ACC
42	Marshall	98.9	98.5	97.6	98.3	CUSA
43	Texas Tech	97.2	96.0	97.4	96.9	B12
44	Navy	98.1	96.1	96.0	96.7	AAC
45	W. Kentucky	95.9	97.0	96.7	96.5	CUSA
46	Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2	AAC
47	Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1	AAC
48	Arkansas St.	95.7	96.9	95.6	96.1	SUN-W
49	Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5	CUSA
50	Syracuse	94.0	96.0	94.6	94.9	ACC
51	Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3	SEC-W
52	Tulane	94.5	94.7	93.6	94.3	AAC
53	Army	93.2	95.3	93.2	93.9	Ind.
54	USF	95.0	93.7	93.1	93.9	AAC
55	NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6	ACC
56	Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.7	94.0	93.5	SUN-E
57	U A B	92.6	93.4	92.1	92.7	CUSA
58	Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6	SEC-E
59	Coastal Car.	91.8	92.4	92.2	92.1	SUN-E
60	E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9	AAC
61	Southern Miss.	88.5	89.0	87.2	88.2	CUSA
62	Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8	SUN-E
63	Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7	SUN-E
64	La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4	CUSA
65	Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4	Ind.
66	Charlotte	86.4	86.7	86.8	86.7	CUSA
67	Kansas	86.3	86.5	85.0	86.0	B12
68	S. Alabama	85.1	86.4	84.8	85.4	SUN-W
69	Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3	CUSA
70	Middle Tenn.	84.1	85.0	84.1	84.4	CUSA
71	Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9	CUSA
72	UL-Monroe	82.0	82.2	80.4	81.5	SUN-W
73	North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7	CUSA
74	Texas St.	79.0	79.6	77.3	78.6	SUN-W
75	U T S A	77.1	77.0	76.5	76.9	CUSA
76	U T E P	63.4	66.0	63.0	64.1	CUSA

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
Memphis	109.0	107.7	108.2	108.3
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
SMU	100.6	100.1	99.6	100.1
Navy	98.1	96.1	96.0	96.7
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
Tulane	94.5	94.7	93.6	94.3
USF	95.0	93.7	93.1	93.9
E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
AAC Averages	100.6	99.9	99.5	100.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Clemson	123.7	124.7	127.6	125.4
Notre Dame	117.2	116.2	117.2	116.9
N. Carolina	111.9	112.4	113.3	112.5
Louisville	110.7	111.3	109.7	110.5
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
Florida St.	105.5	103.9	105.4	104.9
Pittsburgh	103.9	105.7	104.1	104.6
Miami (Fla.)	101.5	104.1	101.7	102.4
Duke	100.6	101.3	100.0	100.6
Georgia Tech	100.6	99.9	99.6	100.0
Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
Wake Forest	98.3	99.4	98.3	98.7
Syracuse	94.0	96.0	94.6	94.9
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
ACC Averages	105.1	105.6	105.5	105.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Oklahoma	117.1	117.1	117.3	117.2
Texas	116.3	115.1	116.4	115.9
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
Iowa St.	107.9	107.1	107.5	107.5
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
Kansas St.	104.2	103.0	104.1	103.8
W. Virginia	101.4	101.5	101.5	101.5
Texas Tech	97.2	96.0	97.4	96.9
Kansas	86.3	86.5	85.0	86.0
Big 12 Averages	105.7	105.0	105.6	105.4
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Marshall	98.9	98.5	97.6	98.3
W. Kentucky	95.9	97.0	96.7	96.5
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
U A B	92.6	93.4	92.1	92.7
Southern Miss.	88.5	89.0	87.2	88.2
La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
Charlotte	86.4	86.7	86.8	86.7
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
Middle Tenn.	84.1	85.0	84.1	84.4
Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
U T S A	77.1	77.0	76.5	76.9
U T E P	63.4	66.0	63.0	64.1
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	85.6	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
BYU	106.7	105.2	106.3	106.1
Army	93.2	95.3	93.2	93.9
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
Ind. Averages	95.4	96.5	95.4	95.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
Miss. St.	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
Ole Miss	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Appal. St.	102.8	101.9	103.9	102.9
Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.7	94.0	93.5
Coastal Car.	91.8	92.4	92.2	92.1
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Louisiana	106.2	105.7	106.2	106.0
Arkansas St.	95.7	96.9	95.6	96.1
S. Alabama	85.1	86.4	84.8	85.4
UL-Monroe	82.0	82.2	80.4	81.5
Texas St.	79.0	79.6	77.3	78.6
SBC Averages	91.0	91.5	90.9	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	League	Avg
1	Southeastern	110.4
2	Big 12	105.4
3	Atlantic Coast	105.4
4	American	100.0
5	Independents	95.8
6	Sun Belt	91.2
7	Conference USA	85.9

This Week’s TV Schedule

Friday, September 18
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN3	Coastal Carolina	Campbell
Saturday, September 19
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	Fox	Baylor	Houston
12:00 PM	ESPN	Oklahoma St.	Tulsa
12:00 PM	ESPN3	Duke	Boston College
12:00 PM	ESPN2	Georgia St.	Louisiana
12:00 PM	ACC	Pittsburgh	Syracuse
12:00 PM	ABC	Tulane	Navy
12:00 PM	ESPNU	Western Kentucky	Liberty
12:00 PM	ESPN+	Cincinnati	Austin Peay
1:30 PM	CBSSN	Marshall	Appalachian St.
2:30 PM	USA	Notre Dame	South Florida
3:00 PM	ABC	Georgia Tech	Central Florida
3:30 PM	ESPN3	North Carolina	Charlotte
3:30 PM	ESPN3	UTSA	S. F. Austin
4:00 PM	ACC	Clemson	The Citadel
4:00 PM	ESPN2	Georgia Southern	Florida Atlantic
4:00 PM	ESPNU	Middle Tennessee	Troy
6:00 PM	CBSSN	North Texas	SMU
7:00 PM	ESPN+	Louisville	Miami (Fla.)
7:30 PM	ABC	Arkansas St.	Central Arkansas
7:30 PM	ESPNU	UL Monroe	Texas St.
8:00 PM	ACC	NC State	Weake Forest
9:00 PM	ESPN3	UTEP	Abilene Christian

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For December 31, 2019

Spreads for Power Conference Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Florida St.	Georgia Tech	11.5
Clemson	Miami (Fla.)	2.0
Duke	Boston College	21.4
Central Florida	Temple	-2.4

 

2019 American Athletic Conference Football Preview

Today, we wrap up the Group of 5 Conference previews with the American Athletic Conference.  The AAC has seen its champion represent the Group of 5 conferences in a New Year’s 6 Bowl Game three times in the five years of the current rules set in place.  While this league is the strongest Group of 5 league to start 2019, we selected Army to be our predicted G5 team to make an NY6 Bowl bid this year.

This is a league about to undergo some transition.  Connecticut will return to the Big East after in 2020, and there will be an opening for another school to join the AAC.  It could be U Mass, Army, or Liberty, but it could also be somebody like Buffalo from the Mid-American Conference or possibly a new FCS school deciding to jump to FBS, like Villanova.

As for this season, the AAC should be a little more competitive than in the recent past.  Central Florida has dominated the league for two consecutive years, and the Golden Knights will be an excellent team once again this year.  However, teams like Cincinnati, Temple, Memphis, and maybe one or two dark horses will make UCF’s path to a “threepeat” quite difficult.

Here is how the American Athletic Conference Media voted in their preseason poll.

American Athletic Conference Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Central Florida	19	169
2	Cincinnati	11	157
3	South Florida	0	107
4	Temple	0	101
5	East Carolina	0	66
6	Connecticut	0	30
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Memphis	15	165
2	Houston	14	162
3	Tulane	0	108
4	SMU	1	87
5	Navy	0	70
6	Tulsa	0	38
	Championship Game Winner		Overall Votes
	Central Florida		12
	Cincinnati		8
	Memphis		6
	Houston		4

 

Here are our preseason PiRate Ratings.

Preseason PiRate Ratings–American Athletic
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	107.7	107.1	108.8	107.9
Cincinnati	106.6	105.0	106.8	106.1
Temple	101.9	101.0	103.2	102.0
South Florida	94.4	95.9	94.9	95.1
East Carolina	85.0	87.6	84.9	85.8
Connecticut	75.9	77.9	74.4	76.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	104.0	103.3	105.2	104.2
SMU	98.7	98.4	98.9	98.7
Houston	95.0	96.7	97.8	96.5
Tulane	95.4	96.6	95.5	95.8
Tulsa	91.3	91.9	92.3	91.8
Navy	86.3	89.2	85.9	87.2
AAC Averages	95.2	95.9	95.7	95.6

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Cincinnati	6-2	9-4
2	Central Florida	6-2	9-3
3	Temple	5-3	9-3
4	South Florida	5-3	6-6
5	East Carolina	2-6	5-7
6	Connecticut	0-8	1-11
West Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Memphis	6-2	10-3*
2	SMU	5-3	8-4
3	Houston	5-3	7-5
4	Tulane	4-4	6-6
5	Navy	3-5	4-8
6	Tulsa	1-7	3-9
*	Memphis Picked To Win AAC Championship Game

 

Bowl Predictions
Birmingham	SMU
Boca Raton	Central Florida
Cure	Temple
Frisco	Houston
Gasparilla	Cincinnati
Hawaii	Memphis
Military	South Florida

Also Bowl Eligible

Tulane

 

Coaches That Could Move To Power 5 Conferences

Luke Fickell, Cincinnati

Josh Heupel, Central Florida

Mike Norvell, Memphis

Willie Fritz, Tulane

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Randy Edsall, Connecticut

Phillip Montgomery, Tulsa

 

Top Quarterbacks

D’Eriq King, Houston

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

Brady White, Memphis

 

Top Offense

Central Florida

Memphis

Houston

 

Top Defense

Temple

Memphis

Cincinnati

 

Coming Tomorrow: We start previewing Power 5 Conferences with the ACC

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Tennessee	117.9	0.0	Iowa	111.4	6.5
North Carolina	121.3	0.0	Washington	109.7	11.6
Duke	122.9	0.0	Central Florida	110.0	12.9
Texas Tech	118.0	0.0	Buffalo	115.2	2.8
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Liberty	107.3	8.2
Virginia	120.8	0.0	Oklahoma	111.4	9.4
Houston	115.3	0.0	Ohio St.	110.2	5.1
Oregon	110.8	0.0	UC Irvine	106.6	4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time	Game	Network	Site
12:10 PM	Tennessee vs. Iowa	CBS	Columbus
2:40 PM	North Carolina vs. Washington	CBS	Columbus
5:15 PM	Duke vs. Central Florida	CBS	Columbia
6:10 PM	Texas Tech vs. Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
7:10 PM	Virginia Tech vs. Liberty	TBS	San Jose
7:45 PM	Virginia vs. Oklahoma	TruTV	Columbia
8:40 PM	Houston vs. Ohio St.	TNT	Tulsa
9:40 PM	Oregon vs. UC-Irvine	TBS	San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Bowls & Playoffs

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday	December 15
New Mexico Bowl		2:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah St.	North Texas	11.6	10.2	12.4
Cure Bowl		2:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Louisiana	9.3	7.5	7.3
Las Vegas Bowl		3:30 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	Arizona St.	2.8	3.7	3.4
Camellia Bowl		5:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern	Eastern Michigan	-4.7	-4.2	-4.3
New Orleans Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Middle Tennessee	-0.6	-0.7	-0.2
Tuesday	December 18
Boca Raton Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
UAB	Northern Illinois	-0.6	0.7	-0.2
Wednesday	December 19
Frisco Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
San Diego St.	Ohio U	-8.7	-9.8	-9.4
Thursday	December 20
Gasparilla Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Florida	Marshall	-1.9	-2.8	-3.0
Friday	December 21
Bahamas Bowl		12:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Florida Int’l.	9.8	7.9	9.3
Idaho Potato Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	BYU	-11.1	-10.0	-11.2
Saturday	December 22	12:00 PM on ESPN
Birmingham Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Wake Forest	-2.3	0.7	0.3
Armed Forces Bowl		3:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Army	-1.3	-1.5	-1.2
Dollar General Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Troy	5.6	5.8	5.1
Hawaii Bowl		10:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Hawaii	Louisiana Tech	-3.3	-3.6	-4.0
Wednesday	December 26
First Responder Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Boston College	-0.3	1.7	0.5
Quick Lane Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Minnesota	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.6	-11.4
Cheez-it Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	California	0.4	1.2	-0.8
Thursday	December 27	1:30 PM on ESPN
Independence Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Duke	Temple	6.4	4.1	5.0
Pinstripe Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wisconsin	Miami (Fla.)	-6.5	-7.5	-7.0
Texas Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baylor	Vanderbilt	-0.4	-2.1	-1.1
Friday	December 28
Music City Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Auburn	Purdue	6.8	7.2	8.4
Camping World Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	West Virginia	1.0	0.8	1.2
Arizona Bowl		5:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Nevada	Arkansas St.	3.6	2.2	1.6
Alamo Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa St.	Washington St.	-3.3	-3.9	-3.6
Saturday	December 29
Peach Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida	Michigan	-9.7	-9.9	-9.6
Belk Bowl		12:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Carolina	Virginia	5.9	4.8	6.6
Cotton Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Clemson	Notre Dame	12.6	12.9	14.3
Orange Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	Oklahoma	19.2	18.7	20.8
Monday	December 31
Redbox Bowl		3:00 PM on Fox
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	Michigan St.	-0.8	1.0	0.4
Military Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Cincinnati	1.9	-0.2	1.0
Sun Bowl		2:00 PM on CBS
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Stanford	Pittsburgh	5.3	4.2	6.1
Liberty Bowl		3:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	Oklahoma St.	12.0	12.1	13.1
Holiday Bowl		7:00 PM on FS1
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah	Northwestern	6.0	6.1	6.7
Gator Bowl		7:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Texas A&M	-2.9	-2.7	-4.0
Tuesday	January 1
Outback Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN2
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa	Mississippi St.	-7.5	-7.8	-9.3
Citrus Bowl		1:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kentucky	Penn St.	-6.7	-5.6	-6.5
Fiesta Bowl		1:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
LSU	Central Florida	2.9	1.5	3.0
Rose Bowl		5:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	Washington	6.9	7.1	6.6
Sugar Bowl		8:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia	Texas	14.9	14.3	17.1
Monday	January 7
National Championship Game		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bama or Okla.	Clem or N. Dame

For those that need to know–these ratings include the list of star players that are sitting out their bowl so as not to risk injury prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.  For example, Will Grier will not play for West Virginia, and that is enough to switch the Mountaineers from favorite to underdog.  This includes a list through Saturday, December 9.

NOTE:  The PiRate Ratings will commence with college basketball coverage as soon as all the major conference teams have played their tenth game.  Our rating is meaningless until every team has played 10 games.

Once again, we have combined all three of our sub-ratings into one more accurate rating.  We will issue spreads on weekend games through the conference tournaments and then spreads on the conference tournament games.

Additionally, starting in Mid-January, we will see the return of our Bracketology Gurus, who in two years of existence have gotten all 68 teams in the tournament one year and 67 of the 68 teams in the other.  We hand-picked 12 not-so-angry men that love college basketball and devote about the same amount of time in analyzing college basketball data as we analyze Major League Baseball.

 

 

What If… An NCAA Playoffs With No Committee Choices

Four teams are happy.  At least three teams are sad and feel slighted.  Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been invited to the playoffs.  Ohio State and Georgia were jilted.

There could be an argument for Oklahoma and Notre Dame over Ohio State and Georgia.  On the other hand, the folks that know best, those sharps in Nevada, would tell you that Georgia is the third best team in the nation.  Many computers will tell you that on December 29, 2018, Ohio State would be a better team than Oklahoma.

Imagine if specially appointed committees chose other things for the rest of us.  How would you like some insider former politicians explaining to you why Candidate A will be your President instead of Candidate B, even though all the political experts say that Candidate B would be the better Chief Excutive?

What is a special committee of psychologists chose who you will marry based on their criteria.  You may be in love with Michelle, but they may choose Kelly for you because she can balance a checkbook and you cannot?

What if the NFL had to choose just four teams for the playoffs.  This year, there are five really good teams in the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, and Texans.  Maybe the Bears and Chargers are also among the four best.  Do you want a 12-4 division winner not making the NFL Playoffs?

Of course you don’t.  And, the fandom of college football doesn’t buy for a minute that the Selection Committee knows what it’s doing.  Let’s see any of them pick games against the spread.  If they are true experts, then they will put up results that make Billy Walters look like an amateur.

The four team playoff did nothing to solve the problems of the two-team BCS National Championship Game it replaced.  In fact, this year, you could make an excellent argument that just putting Alabama against Clemson would be a better option than picking four out of six or seven deserving teams.

Any legitimate FBS Playoffs must allow every FBS team a chance to play their way into said playoffs.  There are 130 FBS teams.  There needs to be no more than 64 top level teams and preferably 32, but let’s not even talk about separating the Power 5 from the Group of 5.  Let’s talk about honest realignment into 7 conferences of 16 teams  and 1 conference of 18 teams.  In an even better world, two FBS teams would drop down to FCS, leaving 128 teams.

Divide each conference into two divisions.  Every team within a division will play each other during the regular season plus three teams in the other division.  In the 18-team conference, there will be just two teams against the other division.  The rhyme and reason to which schools a team in the other division would play would be made by the league with a rotating schedule so that a different three teams would be played every year, possibly using the NFL’s strategy of having the prior first place team in one division playing the prior first place team in the other division and so on down to the prior last place teams playing each other.

At the end of the season, the top team in each division of each conference would then make the 16-team playoff.  In the first round, the division winners of each conference would play to determine the conference champion.  This would leave eight teams for eight playoff spots.

These conference championship games could be played on neutral sites like the current Power Five Conference Championship Games, or on the home field of the team with the better conference record with set tiebreakers to determine the higher seed if there is a tie.

With the number down to eight, the next round could be played on home fields of the higher seeds as determined by criteria that all teams and all fans will know, just like home field is determined in the NFL.  At no time will a committee of so-called experts determine who is in these playoffs and who will be the home team.

After this second round of the playoffs, the final four can then be played like it is today.

This would give every team a chance to play for the national title, just like all 350 Division 1 basketball teams have a chance.  If you think this isn’t fair to Alabama or Clemson to have to play more games to become national champion, then you must absolutely hate March Madness when Sister Jean and her Loyola Ramblers or Butler or Wichita State can make a run to the Final Four.  You must hate the fact that a Gonzaga can advance from a small program into one of the top 10 in the nation.

If the entire FBS has a chance to win the national title, then all programs will have a chance to do what Gonzaga has done in basketball.

Another bonus could be in scheduling.  Instead of an SEC team like Georgia scheduling Austin Peay and Massachusetts, or Alabama scheduling The Citadel, Arkansas State, and Louisiana (the one in Lafayette and not Baton Rouge), the national schedule makers could schedule Alabama and Oklahoma, or Georgia and Michigan.

What about the FBS vs. FCS games?  Why not give each FBS team two preseason games against FCS teams, where the FBS team pays the FCS team a check just like they do now?  With all the extra billions coming into this new paradigm, the FBS teams could keep these FCS programs solvent without putting a 63-3 pasting on them in a regular season game.

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 14

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Friday	November 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mid-American Conference Championship Game @ Buffalo
Buffalo	Northern Illinois	5.9	6.9	7.0
Pac-12 Conference Championship Game @ Santa Clara, CA
Washington	Utah	5.4	4.5	5.4

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX
Oklahoma	Texas	7.2	7.4	7.6
Sun Belt Conference Championship Game @ Appy St.
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	17.8	17.6	18.0
Conference USA Championship Game @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee	UAB	2.3	2.0	2.8
American Athletic Conference Championship Game @ Central FL
Central Florida	Memphis	11.3	10.4	10.8
Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta
Alabama	Georgia	12.8	13.4	13.3
Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ Boise St.
Boise St.	Fresno St.	2.7	3.0	3.2
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC
Clemson	Pittsburgh	30.3	28.7	31.4
Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN
Ohio St.	Northwestern	15.5	15.4	16.0

Other Saturday Games

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Marshall	12.6	8.6	10.7
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	30.9	29.9	30.5
South Carolina	Akron	30.2	28.2	30.4
California	Stanford	-5.2	-5.0	-5.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Iowa St.	Drake	42.7
Liberty	Norfolk St.	26.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4
2	Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3
3	Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2
4	Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4
9	Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
21	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3
22	Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8
23	Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6
24	Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7
25	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
26	S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9
30	Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1
40	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
54	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
55	Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7
68	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
69	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
70	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
71	Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
76	Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3
77	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
78	U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9
79	Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5
85	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0
111	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
112	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
113	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
118	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
119	Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3	8-0	11-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0	1-7	3-8
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5	5-3	8-4
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3	8-0	12-0
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9	5-3	8-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1	6-2	7-5
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6	4-4	5-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0	8-1	11-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6	7-2	9-3
Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7	6-3	7-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	8-1	11-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1	8-1	8-4
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3	7-1	8-4
Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5	6-2	8-3
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9	7-1	9-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3	x	5-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7	7-1	10-2
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8	2-6	4-7
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6	6-2	7-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6	7-1	10-2
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7	7-1	10-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4	7-2	9-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8	5-3	7-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6	4-4	7-4
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3	6-3	9-3
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2	7-1	11-1
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4	4-4	6-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4	8-0	12-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8	7-1	9-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5	5-3	7-5
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
2	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
3	ACC	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top Group of 5

Central Florida will get the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid with a win over Memphis this week in the CUSA Championship Game.  If Memphis pulls off the upset, then UCF could still sneak in depending on how the loss looks.

Should UCF fall by a considerable margin because Mackenzie Milton is out for the season, then Boise State could move above the Golden Knights should the Broncos defeat Fresno State for the second time.

Should Fresno State beat Boise State, and Memphis beat Central Florida, then there could be some issues with the awarding of Bowl Bids.  Because Army doesn’t play Navy until December 8, and the announcement of the bowl bids is December 3, then Army could be excluded even if they blowout Navy by 50 points.  In this instance, Central Florida would probably still get the bid at 11-1.  Had Army defeated Duke at the beginning of the season, then at 11-1 with a loss only to Oklahoma (a game they came close to winning), then the Bowl Committee would have been in a heap of trouble, having to make alternate announcements pending what Army did versus Navy.

At 10-2, Army may still get a chance to play a Power 5 opponent in a bowl game.  Coach Jeff Monken would be a cinch to be offered a Power 5 job if he was not in the Paul Johnson mode.  Monken’s triple option offense is stronger than Georgia Tech’s this year, and his defense is considerably better.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

This week, you will see many of the bowl projection sites beginning to come to agreement on the top bowl games.  No doubt, almost every projection will have Alabama in the Cotton Bowl against either Oklahoma or Ohio State, while Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the Orange Bowl.

We thought about this for a long time Saturday night as Clemson and Alabama continued to dominate.  It looked so much like the Playoffs could be narrowed to two teams.  However, we thought about something.  Georgia is not going to lay over and die for the Crimson Tide to roll over.  The Bulldogs have a bad taste in their mouth from last year, where they could smell the National Championship Trophy in the second half of the title game, before some freshman named Tua came off the bench in the second half and looked like a combination of Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

We have noticed the teams that have given Alabama the most trouble through the Nick Saban years.  These teams have physical defenses and offenses with dual-threat quarterbacks that can act as another running back while still passing like stars.  Think about Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, or DeShaun Watson.  Even Chad Kelly had legs and could take off and run.  These are the teams that gave the Crimson Tide the most trouble in the last decade.

In the last few weeks, Alabama’s defense has been exposed by this read and react style of offense.  The Citadel’s triple option basically embarrassed Alabama in the first half.  Auburn’s spread option offense did some damage, but Jarrett Stidham does not have the legs to motor on the keeper like the QBs that have outscored Alabama to victory.

Here’s the thing.  Just like Alabama last year, Georgia has their not-so-secret weapon sitting on the bench waiting to be this year’s Tua Tagovailoa.  Freshman sensation Justin Fields possesses the same skills as Newton, Manziel, and Watson.  He has the potential to lead Georgia to an upset victory and totally throw the FBS Playoffs into disarray.

What if Georgia beat Alabama?  Assuming Clemson easily dismisses Pittsburgh, then Clemson would be number one, Georgia and Notre Dame would be number two and three in either order, and Alabama would fall to number four.  Ohio State and Oklahoma would be left out.  Forget Central Florida.  Even if Bama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State, and Texas beats Oklahoma, a Georgia team at 11-2 would get into the playoffs before UCF.

If Georgia were to upset Alabama, then four SEC teams would most likely make the NY6 bowls.  The Bulldogs and Tide would make the playoffs.  Florida would most likely make the Peach Bowl, and LSU would probably edge out Penn State and others for the Sugar Bowl.

There are 81 bowl eligible teams as of today.  Virginia Tech is a win over Marshall this weekend from becoming bowl eligible and making it  82.  Liberty can get to 6-6 with a win over Norfolk State, but they have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility as a transition team to FBS once 78 teams became bowl eligible.

If you are a fan of a Mountain West, Mid-American, or Sun Belt Conference team that is 6-6 today, you better cheer hard for Marshall to knock off Virginia Tech.  There are already three teams too many for the bowls, and if the Hokies win, they will jump over any of the Group of 5 teams hoping to land in a bowl.  Teams like Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Wyoming, and Louisiana-Monroe are holding out for a miracle.  At most one of these teams will make it to a bowl, and if Virginia Tech wins this weekend, all four are likely to have empty envelopes.  Eastern Michigan could still top Western Michigan, but the Broncos have a larger fan base than the Eagles.

What you see below is our look at the bowls should Georgia beat Alabama.  You can look at all the others on the Internet to see what it would look like if the status quo remains, but we believe you will want to read this alternative look.

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Memphis	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Tulane	[Army]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Wake Forest]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	TCU
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Western Michigan]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	[San Diego St.]
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Georgia Tech	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Washington St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Notre Dame	Georgia
Orange			Clemson	Alabama
Championship Game			Georgia	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 13

There are a bevy of interesting games with something on the line this week. Playoff games are on the line, bowl eligibility is on the line, and a few coaching jobs are on the line as Rivalry Week returns.
If you are a fan of a 5-6 team this week, you better hope that they win, because there is 0.01% chance or 1 in 10,000 that a bowl will have to take a team that is worse than 6-6. As of today, 71 teams are now bowl eligible. Three games this week will pit teams with identical 5-6 records, so three more are guaranteed to become bowl eligible, bringing the total to 74. There needs to be four more teams that will need one more win, and there are an additional 16 teams that have a chance to do so. The chances that 13 of these 16 teams lose their final game are less than the chances of the San Diego Padres facing the Chicago White Sox in the 2019 World Series.
Below, we take another look at each conference so you can determine which games you want to watch this week, or if you’d rather go shopping on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. You really should spend a few bucks with a locally owned small business this Saturday. We recommend our favorite jewelry artist, Marjorie Miller of Marjorie Miller Designs right here in the Music City at Beautiful Gifts for Her

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	-6.5	-6.0	-6.2
Miami (O)	Ball St.	17.9	17.6	20.4

 

Thursday	November 22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Colorado St.	14.7	14.6	15.4
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	-17.4	-16.1	-18.1

 

Friday	November 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Akron	19.3	19.6	20.6
Cincinnati	East Carolina	17.8	19.3	18.3
Kent St.	Eastern Michigan	-14.7	-15.2	-15.4
Bowling Green	Buffalo	-13.3	-14.5	-14.3
Iowa	Nebraska	17.0	16.3	17.2
Kansas	Texas	-13.8	-13.8	-14.7
Missouri	Arkansas	24.8	25.6	26.8
South Alabama	Coastal Carolina	-0.3	-1.0	-0.6
Toledo	Central Michigan	19.6	18.8	19.5
South Florida	Central Florida	-21.0	-20.0	-21.5
Oregon St.	Oregon	-20.9	-22.8	-22.4
Memphis	Houston	3.1	3.9	3.7
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-0.6	-2.1	-1.0
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-1.0	-0.7	-1.4
Washington St.	Washington	-1.6	-0.4	-2.1

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	6.0	5.0	5.5
Connecticut	Temple	-30.1	-29.9	-31.6
Louisville	Kentucky	-21.4	-20.6	-22.4
Clemson	South Carolina	28.8	27.6	30.1
Michigan St.	Rutgers	29.0	28.0	29.5
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-12.2	-12.3	-12.7
Florida Int’l.	Marshall	-2.1	-1.1	-2.5
Boston College	Syracuse	7.6	6.8	8.0
Ohio St.	Michigan	-3.5	-4.2	-4.3
Northwestern	Illinois	24.9	23.8	26.2
Georgia	Georgia Tech	15.5	14.1	17.1
Duke	Wake Forest	11.7	11.5	12.8
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.3	13.3	14.3
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	-11.6	-11.6	-11.2
Louisiana Tech	Western Kentucky	12.4	11.6	12.4
Rice	Old Dominion	-13.1	-13.6	-14.0
UTEP	Southern Miss.	-13.3	-13.4	-14.0
Liberty	New Mexico St.	11.0	8.6	11.4
Boise St.	Utah St.	3.9	2.2	3.1
Utah	BYU	17.8	15.8	17.6
Appalachian St.	Troy	9.5	10.1	9.6
New Mexico	Wyoming	-8.5	-7.9	-9.0
Middle Tennessee	UAB	-2.1	-2.6	-1.8
California	Colorado	12.9	10.6	12.8
UCLA	Stanford	-11.9	-10.1	-13.9
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	4.3	3.6	4.8
TCU	Oklahoma St.	-2.2	-2.1	-3.7
Florida St.	Florida	-4.9	-4.5	-6.4
Penn St.	Maryland	16.1	14.9	16.3
Baylor	Texas Tech	-7.0	-7.3	-6.2
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	36.9	35.3	37.9
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	11.8	11.5	12.3
Texas A&M	LSU	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7
Indiana	Purdue	-6.6	-6.0	-6.4
Tulane	Navy	6.9	5.5	6.9
UL-Monroe	Louisiana	5.3	3.7	4.6
Tulsa	SMU	-2.9	-2.9	-2.3
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	20.3	19.1	19.9
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	-13.8	-12.8	-15.0
UTSA	North Texas	-22.5	-20.9	-22.5
USC	Notre Dame	-17.3	-16.7	-17.8
Alabama	Auburn	25.4	24.8	25.5
UNLV	Nevada	-13.3	-12.5	-13.4
San Diego St.	Hawaii	20.3	18.8	21.5
Arizona	Arizona St.	-7.2	-7.3	-6.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9
4	Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3
5	Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9
6	Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3
7	Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9
8	Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8
9	Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9
10	Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6
11	L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9
12	Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2
13	Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2
14	West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8
15	Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7
16	Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6
17	Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4
18	Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3
19	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2
20	Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1
21	Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0
22	Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8
23	Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7
24	Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6
25	Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3
26	Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2
27	Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1
28	N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8
29	Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4
30	S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4
31	Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3
32	Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3
33	Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1
34	Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9
35	Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8
36	Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6
37	Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0
38	Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9
39	Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8
40	Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5
41	Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3
42	Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2
43	Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9
44	California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6
45	Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1
46	U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6
47	Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1
48	T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6
49	Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2
50	Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8
51	Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7
52	Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6
53	Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6
54	Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6
55	Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5
56	Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4
57	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
58	Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4
59	Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9
60	Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5
61	Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4
62	Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3
63	BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1
64	Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1
65	Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0
66	Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8
67	N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9
68	Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8
69	U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6
70	Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6
71	U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3
72	Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1
73	Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5
74	Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1
75	Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0
76	N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7
77	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
78	Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2
79	San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0
80	Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9
81	Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8
82	Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4
83	Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2
84	Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1
85	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
86	Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4
87	Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6
88	SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4
89	Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4
90	Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5
91	Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3
92	South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0
94	Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9
95	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7
96	Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3
97	Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2
98	Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0
99	Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9
100	Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9
101	Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2
102	Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0
103	UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0
104	Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9
105	East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5
106	Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2
107	New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5
108	Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0
109	Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9
110	Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3
111	W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7
112	Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5
113	U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3
116	Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8
117	Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7
118	Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5
119	Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0
121	San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0
122	Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0
123	Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8
124	Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1
125	South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9
126	U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8
127	N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6
128	Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6
129	U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6
130	Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2	7-0	10-0
Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2	6-1	7-4
Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5	5-2	9-2
South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9	3-4	7-4
East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5	1-6	3-7
Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6	0-7	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5	4-3	7-4
Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9	5-2	8-3
SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4	4-3	5-6
Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4	4-3	5-6
Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2	1-6	2-9
Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0	2-5	3-8
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	8-0	11-0
Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0	4-3	7-4
N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8	4-3	7-3
Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5	5-2	8-3
Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1	3-5	5-6
Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3	2-5	5-6
Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0	0-8	2-9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6	3-4	6-5
Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3	5-3	7-4
Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3	3-4	7-4
Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6	6-1	7-4
Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1	4-3	7-4
Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4	3-4	4-6
N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9	1-6	2-8
ACC Averages	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8	7-1	10-1
West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8	6-2	8-2
Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3	6-2	8-3
Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1	5-3	6-4
Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8	3-5	6-5
Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9	3-5	5-6
T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6	3-5	5-6
Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8	3-5	5-6
Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1	3-5	5-6
Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2	1-7	3-8
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9	8-0	10-1
Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9	7-1	10-1
Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4	5-3	8-3
Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7	4-4	6-5
Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6	3-5	5-6
Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0	2-6	5-6
Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9	0-8	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2	4-4	7-4
Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3	7-1	7-4
Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1	5-3	7-4
Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3	4-4	5-6
Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4	3-5	4-7
Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6	2-6	5-6
Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9	2-6	4-7
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	3-4	5-6
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	5-2	7-3
Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6	6-1	7-4
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0	6-1	8-3
Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0	2-5	4-7
W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7	1-6	2-9
Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3	3-4	4-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3	7-0	9-2
N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7	4-3	8-3
Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3	5-2	7-4
Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2	3-4	5-5
U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8	2-5	3-8
U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6	1-6	1-10
Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4	0-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9	x	11-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1	x	6-5
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-8
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7	5-2	7-4
Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1	6-1	9-2
Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8	5-2	5-6
Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9	2-5	4-6
Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5	2-5	3-8
Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1	4-3	6-5
Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0	6-1	7-4
Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1	4-3	6-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3	4-3	6-5
Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3	0-7	1-10
Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7	3-4	4-7
MAC Averages	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9	6-1	9-2
Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8	7-0	10-1
Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2	2-5	4-7
Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4	3-4	5-6
New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5	1-6	3-8
Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3	2-5	3-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2	6-1	9-2
San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0	4-3	7-4
Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4	5-2	7-4
U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9	1-6	3-8
Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8	4-3	7-5
San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0	1-6	1-10
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9	6-2	8-3
Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6	7-1	10-1
Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1	4-3	6-4
Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2	4-4	7-4
California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6	3-4	6-4
Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2	1-7	2-9
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7	6-3	8-3
Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9	4-4	6-5
U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6	4-5	5-6
Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4	4-4	5-6
U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6	3-5	3-8
Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5	2-6	5-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3	7-1	10-1
Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6	3-4	7-4
Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4	5-3	8-3
S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4	4-4	6-4
Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0	5-3	8-3
Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6	2-5	5-6
Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8	2-5	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0	7-0	11-0
Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3	3-4	7-4
L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9	5-2	9-2
Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2	3-4	7-4
Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8	4-3	7-4
Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6	1-6	5-6
Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9	0-7	2-9
SEC Averages	114.4	113.2	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8	6-1	8-2
Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5	7-0	9-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7	5-2	8-3
Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0	2-5	5-6
Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9	4-3	7-4
UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0	4-3	6-5
Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9	4-3	6-5
Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1	1-6	3-8
South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9	1-6	2-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.2	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
5	PAC12	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	IND	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
8	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
9	MAC	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

Group of 5 Teams Still in Running for NY6 Bowl

1. Central Florida
2. Utah St.
3. Boise St.
4. Fresno St.
5. Army

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	San Diego St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Arizona]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	[Eastern Michigan]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Syracuse	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Texas Tech
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Miami (Fla.)
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Central Florida
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Standard

American Athletic
UCF vs. USF: Central Florida easily disposed of Cincinnati, and now they must end the regular season with a swooning South Florida team that looks all out of kilter. USF was 7-0 and has now lost four consecutive games. The Bulls play one good half and one bad half in nearly every game, and if this repeats itself, UCF should win by more than 20 points. However, we suspect USF will play its best game of the year, so this game could be closer than expected, especially if USF’s better half is the first half.

Time: Friday, 4:00 PM
TV: ESPN

Memphis vs. Houston: The West Division race is still up for grabs, and it will go to the winner of the Houston-Memphis game at the Liberty Bowl. Houston may have a little bit of dissension after some issues on the sidelines against Tulane last week. Memphis is playing its best ball of the season, and the Tigers enjoy a modicum of home field advantage. This game could have some head coaching implications. Major Applewhite is not a huge favorite in Houston, and a loss plus a bowl loss could put his job in jeopardy. On the other side, Memphis coach Mike Norvell could be on the short list of multiple Power 5 Conference jobs.
Time: Friday, 12:00 PM
TV: ABC

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Tulane vs. Navy, 12 Noon on ESPNU
SMU vs. Tulsa, 3:30 PM on CBSSN

Atlantic Coast
Clemson will play Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game, but there are other reasons to watch the Tigers this week. CU plays rival South Carolina, and this should give us all a chance to see Trevor Lawrence face a tough SEC defense. Somewhere down the road, Clemson might play for a National Championship against an even better SEC defense. In limited action earlier this year Lawrence was 5 of 9 for 99 yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M. South Carolina became bowl eligible against Chattanooga last night, and the Gamecocks added a late replacement game for their hurricane cancellation. They now play Akron next week, so there is a chance to get to 8-4 if they can pull off the big upset in this game. At 8-4, they could move up over Missouri and Auburn in the bowl pecking order.  Clemson vs. South Carolina

Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: ESPN

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida State vs. Florida, 12 PM on ABC
Wake Forest vs. Duke, 12:30 PM on ACCn

Big 12
This conference has multiple games of importance in both the Playoff and bowl picture. Let’s start by explaining how the Conference Championship Game looks.

Oklahoma leads Texas and West Virginia by one game in the standings, but the Sooners have not clinched a spot in the Championship Game. Oklahoma plays at West Virginia this week. Texas visits Kansas.

If Oklahoma wins, they are the #1 seed, and West Virginia falls to 6-3 in the league. If Texas then beats Kansas, it will be a rematch of the Red River Rivalry in Arlington, Texas, as the Longhorns will be 7-2.

If West Virginia beats Oklahoma, and Texas beats Kansas, then the Sooners are eliminated, while West Virginia and Texas play in the title game.

If Texas loses to Kansas in a monumental upset, then no matter what happens in the OU-WVU game, the two will play again the next week for the Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma needs to beat West Virginia and Texas and hope for Northwestern to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game to have any chance at making the Playoffs. There is a minor chance that they could get in if Notre Dame lays an egg at the Coliseum against USC this week, but the way the Trojans are playing, don’t bet on it.

There are three more important games in the Big 12 this week.  Texas Tech plays Baylor at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The winner earns a bowl bid, while the loser plays again next September. If the loser is Texas Tech, there’s a good chance that somebody other than Kliff KIngsbury will be coaching the Red Raiders in 2019. His job is not totally secure unless TTU wins this game and the bowl game.
Oklahoma State is bowl eligible thanks to the upset over West Virginia. The Cowboys close the season against TCU, and the 5-6 Horned Frogs need a win to become bowl eligible. TCU had several near misses, but their defense looked strong in stopping Baylor Saturday.
Kansas State might be playing its final game under the direction of legendary coach Bill Snyder. At 79, there’s a chance that Snyder will retire for good after this season. Kansas State is 5-6 and faces a tough finishing game against Iowa State in Ames. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell might also be leading his Cyclones on the field for the last time. He could easily be gobbled up by a bigger school looking to hire a new coach. Should Urban Meyer step down at Ohio State, a lot of insiders believe that Campbell would be on a very short list in Columbus.

Big 12 Key Game Schedule
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Time: Friday, 8 PM
TV; ESPN

Texas vs. Kansas
Time: Friday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Time: Saturday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.
Time: Saturday, 8 PM
TV: Fox

Kansas St. vs. Iowa St.
Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: FS1

 

Big Ten
Michigan vs. Ohio State: It’s all about the big rivalry game at the Giant Horseshoe. Michigan and Ohio State will meet for the annual grudge match, and the winner wins the East and stays in contention for the Playoffs. The loser most likely would get the consolation prize of a Rose Bowl game. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, which means they are zero for their last eight. In that span, they lose their most important game prior to this one, when they fell by a field goal in 2006. Expect a hard-fought effort on both sides, and the winner just may come out of this game at somewhat less than 100%, giving Northwestern a bit more chance to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Fox

Indiana and Purdue face off in Bloomington in a bowl qualification/elimination game. These may be the two best 5-6 teams in the nation, and the winner will be a tough 6-6 bowl team. Purdue may be playing with some distractions, as it appears as if Coach Jeff Brohm is halfway out the door and headed south to his Alma Mater in Louisville.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe must fall in the favor of Minnesota against Wisconsin if the Golden Gophers are to nab the Big Ten’s ninth bowl bid. UM is 5-6 and extremely inconsistent, sometimes in the same half of games. Wisconsin is coming in for a landing with a stalled engine, so this game should be close and relatively low scoring.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

Maryland has not won a game since D.J. Durkin was officially re-instated and then fired. The Terrapins were 5-3 and looking like a bowl team before the news hit. They have dropped three games in a row and must win at Penn State to become bowl eligible. Penn State is winning on fumes in November. The Nittany Lions’ offense has disappeared. Still, PSU looks like a prohibitive favorite in this game, and they actually still hold a remote chance of earning the final New Year’s Six Bowl bid. A win would almost guarantee them no worse than the Citrus or Outback Bowl games on New Year’s Day. Maryland vs. Penn St.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

Conference USA
CUSA lost any chance of sending a team to the Peach Bowl when UAB coughed up the ball too many times and lost at Texas A&M after coming out even in total yardage. The Blazers have clinched a berth in the CUSA Championship Game, and their contest at Middle Tennessee this week will still be important, because the East Division race is still to be decided. If Middle beats UAB, and Marshall beats Florida International, then Middle and UAB would play again next week in the CUSA Championship Game. If FIU beats Marshall and UAB beats Middle Tennessee, then FIU wins the East Division race.

Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
Time: 3PM, Saturday
TV: Online only at ESPN3

Florida International vs. Marshall
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Stadium and Facebook

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte
Time: Saturday, 6PM
TV: Stadium

Southern Mississippi vs. UTEP
Time: 3 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Independents
Notre Dame can become the first team to secure a spot in the Playoffs by topping USC in Los Angeles. USC will be playing for bowl eligibility as well as Coach Clay Helton’s job security. There might be a couple of NFL head coaches, including former coach Pete Carroll interested in taking the job if it becomes available, but we tend to believe Dino Babers might be the answer if this job opens up. As for the Irish, they are peaking at the right time. A double-digit win should leave Notre Dame in the 3-slot with a trip to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson the most likely scenario.  Notre Dame vs. USC

Time: 8 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

 

Mid-American
The MAC Championship Game will pit Buffalo and Northern Illinois unless the unthinkable happens, and the Bulls lose to a weak Bowling Green team. Should Buffalo lose, then Miami of Ohio has a chance to do the unthinkable for the second time in three years if they beat Ball St. Miami began 2016 at 0-6 and then won six games in a row to come from last to first and make a bowl game. This year the Red Hawks were 1-4 and then 3-6 before winning back-to-back games over favored Ohio and Northern Illinois teams. Ohio can only win the division if Buffalo and Miami both lose.
In the West, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan all have six wins and are bowl eligible, but there is little chance that all three will be invited to bowls. At least one of these three will miss out, so, it is important to get that seventh win this week.

Key MAC Games Schedule

Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPNU

Miami (O) vs. Ball St.
Time: 7PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPN+

Ohio U vs. Akron
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: CBSSN
Note: Akron is technically still in the running for bowl eligibility at 4-6, but the Zips must beat Ohio and then South Carolina, so we have eliminated them from the bowl team possibles.

Eastern Michigan vs. Kent St.
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online

Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Time: 7 PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPNU

Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online
Mountain West
Fresno State clinched a spot in the conference championship game and will face the winner of the Boise State-Utah State game. Utah State is playing for more than just a spot in the MWC Championship Game. They are the team on-deck should Central Florida fall to USF or in the AAC Championship Game. The Aggies could sneak into the Fiesta Bowl with wins over Boise State and Fresno State and a loss by UCF.

Boise State-Utah St.
Time: 10:15 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN

Wyoming is 5-6 and needs a win over New Mexico to become bowl eligible. Even at 6-6, the Cowboys have only a slim chance to earn a bowl bid.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: MWCn
Pac-12
Both division races will be decided this week. In the North Division race, it comes down to the Apple Cup game between Washington and Washington St. Washington State has not won the Apple Cup since Mike Leach’s first year in the Palouse. UW has won the last five years by better than three touchdowns per game. An impressive win over Washington combined with a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game could bring the Playoffs into view for WSU if Northwestern won the Big Ten Championship Game and Oklahoma did not win the Big 12 Championship.  Washington State vs. Washington

Time: 8:30 PM, Friday
TV: Fox

The South Division comes down to Utah or Arizona State. Utah has already finished their conference slate, and their game against BYU is strictly for bragging rights in the Beehive State. The Arizona State-Arizona game is the important one. If the Sun Devils win, then Coach Herm Edwards will force all those pundits to eat crow when they called his hiring a farce. ASU would win the South with a win over their rival. Arizona has a lot to play for as well. The Wildcats are 5-6 and must win to become bowl eligible, where they most likely would be shipped east as an at-large team for a bowl needing to fill a spot.

Arizona-Arizona State
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: FS1

Colorado was 5-0, and now the Buffaloes are 5-6. Coach Mike MacIntyre is on a hot seat in snowy Boulder, and CU must venture to smoky Berkeley to face a hot Cal team that got an unexpected week off last week. CU better hope that Cal is looking forward to the Stanford makeup game the following week and overlooks the Buffs, because CU hasn’t got much left in the tank at this point.  Colorado vs. California

Time: 7PM, Saturday
TV: Pac-12
Southeastern
Alabama and Georgia will meet in the next chapter of greatness in the SEC Championship Game next week, but both teams must not overlook their arch-rivals this week, both of whom come into this game in peak performance.

Alabama should have little problem with Auburn, but the Tide showed some vulnerabilities that Auburn, and then Georgia, and possibly Clemson can attack. By saying “vulnerabilities,” we refer to something similar to the 1927 New York Yankees being a little weak at third base with Jumping Joe Dugan. Auburn last beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 2010, but that team has Cam Newton at quarterback and still only won by a point.

Alabama vs. Auburn
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: CBS

Georgia cannot afford a loss to Georgia Tech, as the Bulldogs might not make the playoffs even if they subsequently beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Tech has made a big turnaround since starting the season 1-3. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall has a chance to reach 1,000 rushing yards with a good game here and another in the bowl game.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: SECn

Vanderbilt and Tennessee face off in Nashville with a bowl game going to the winner and the end of the line coming for the loser. Tennessee needs quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to return from a head and neck injury suffered Saturday against Missouri. Guarantano is worth more than a touchdown to the Vols compared to backup Keller Chryst. The Vols also have concerns at wideout where Marquez Callaway also was injured against Missouri. Vanderbilt has some injury concerns at quarterback as well, but it is their number two guy that will probably miss this game. Should anything happen to Kyle Shurmur, then the Commodores would be forced to put a true freshman with zero game experience into the most important game of their season. Vandy coach Derek Mason could receive some feelers from other job openings if he can guide the Commodores to their second bowl in three years. He was courted by California last year, and a possible opening or two in the Pac-12 could attract him.  Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Time: 4 PM, Saturday
TV: SECn

Sun Belt
Half of the league still holds SBC Championship Game aspirations. In the East, Troy plays Appalachian State, and the winner takes the division title and hosts the inaugural SBC Championship Game. The Mountaineers host this game and have not lost a conference game at home in more than three years. These two teams did not play each other last year when they tied for first, and the last two times they played, the games came down to the final minute.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

The West Division is currently log-jammed with three teams tied for first at 4-3. Louisiana holds the trump card in this three-way race. If the Ragin’ Cajuns defeat rival UL-Monroe, they will win the division title and play in the league title game. If UL-Monroe beats Louisiana, then Arkansas State would get in if the Red Wolves beat Texas State. If UL-Monroe wins and Arkansas State loses, then the Warhawks would win the division title outright.
Louisiana vs. UL-Monroe
Time: 3 PM ,Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Time: 4PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN3