PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Rhode Island	Richmond	2.2
Georgia	Alabama	-15.0
Duke	Clemson	12.1
Illilnois	Michigan St.	5.4
Villanova	DePaul	15.3
Northern Kentucky	Wright St.	-0.7
Charleston	William & Mary	13.2
Dayton	Fordham	12.4
Yale	Columbia	17.6
Iona	Siena	16.6
Temple	Cincinnati	-3.1
Indiana St.	Missouri St.	-7.6
Ohio	Northern Illinois	16.5
Bowling Green	Eastern Michigan	6.8
Central Michigan	Akron	-11.6
Kent St.	Western Michigan	13.3
Toledo	Buffalo	5.4
Ball St.	Miami (O)	-2.5
Baylor	Kansas St.	14.6
North Dakota St.	St. Thomas	7.6
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	-4.7
Loyola (Chi.)	Southern Illinois	12.3
Rutgers	Maryland	1.4
Missouri	Auburn	-15.4
Connecticut	Georgetown	17.5
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	11.3
TCU	Texas	-1.5
Colorado St.	Nevada	11.2
New Mexico	Fresno St.	-4.9
Boise St.	Wyoming	5.1
Oregon	Colorado	6.8
Cal St. Northridge	UCSB	-7.3
San Jose St.	Air Force	-0.1
UCLA	Arizona	-3.1

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Canisius	Quinnipiac	-0.5
Fairfield	Iona	-5.3
Stanford	USC	-6.6
Towson	Hofstra	3.8
Tennessee	South Carolina	14.3
Penn St.	Rutgers	4.1
Baylor	Texas Tech	10.1
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-8.6
Marquette	DePaul	7.0
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	10.2
North Alabama	Eastern Kentucky	-2.3
Liberty	North Florida	13.2
Jacksonville St.	Lipscomb	11.9
Jacksonville	Stetson	5.7
Bellarmine	Central Arkansas	12.1
La Salle	St. Bonaventure	-10.7
VCU	George Washington	17.7
Dayton	Saint Louis	1.3
Davidson	Massachusetts	10.7
James Madison	Northeastern	3.9
Drexel	Delaware	2.5
Akron	Ball St.	10.3
Ohio	Bowling Green	8.0
Kent St.	Northern Illinois	13.0
Western Michigan	Buffalo	-15.0
Miami (O)	Toledo	-2.2
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	6.7
Stephen F. Austin	UT Rio Grande Valley	10.9
Kansas	Iowa St.	12.0
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	6.8
Northern Iowa	Indiana St.	8.5
Texas	Oklahoma	5.4
Nebraska	Illinois	-14.1
Texas A&M	Mississippi	4.7
Alabama	Auburn	-0.1
Creighton	Providence	1.2
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	2.6
Loyola (Chi.)	Valparaiso	17.2
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	16.1
UNLV	New Mexico	7.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
St. John’s	DePaul	4.3
Michigan St.	Nebraska	16.4
South Florida	Houston	-20.5
Florida	Alabama	0.4
Tennessee	Ole Miss	15.9
East Carolina	Tulane	0.1
Central Florida	Temple	11.4
Louisvile	Pittsburgh	12.6
Dayton	VCU	0.9
Saint Joseph’s	Davidson	-4.5
Richmond	Massachusetts	6.9
Miami (Fla.)	Syracuse	1.2
Villanova	Creighton	10.2
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	-1.4
Notre Dame	North Carolina	-1.9
Bradley	Missouri St.	-3.1
Northwestern	Penn St.	6.3

PiRate Ratings Sweet 16 Spreads

Friday, March 26, 2021

Favorite	Underdog	Spread
Loyola (Chi.)	Oregon St.	6.5
Baylor	Villanova	5.2
Arkansas	Oral Roberts	13.3
Houston	Syracuse	7.0
Gonzaga	Creighton	13.3
Michigan	Florida St.	3.4
Alabama	UCLA	5.7
USC	Oregon	3.4

Bracketnomics Took A Beating

Like 99% of the public, our brackets are destroyed thanks to all the lower seeded teams winning in the first two rounds. Obviously, the Big Ten was highly overrated, and the Pac-12 was highly underrated. A lack of non-conference games this year made the schedule strengths too biased. There are only four teams in the Sweet 16 with resumes similar to past national champions.

Gonzaga is the only remaining team that meets 90% of the criteria of a national champion. Michigan would also meet the criteria, but their star playmaker is still injured and out. So, the Wolverines have to be discounted somewhat.

Baylor and Houston meet more than 75% of the criteria, but they are missing one key important stat. Connecticut is the only past national champion of the 21st Century to win the national title with this type of criteria.

If Gonzaga wins the title, then the bracketnomics data will have proven itself to be accurate for the year, even if our interpretation of the data was wrong. If Michigan, Houston, or Baylor wins the title, then it will be another Connecticut type of deal, where the criteria was valid but not identifiable enough to be considered a success. If anybody else cuts the nets, then the criteria failed for this year.

What should we make of this data this year? Do we throw this year out due to the highly dysfunctional season? So many games were cancelled this year, while other games were scheduled on as little as 48-72 hours notice. Included in the cancellations was a Gonzaga vs. Baylor game that should have been played, in all places, in Indianapolis in December!

One thing we will note in 2021-2022 is to consider the Big Ten Conference to be a tad overrated and the Pac-12 Conference a tad underrated. Maybe, it is time for “The Conference of Champions” to return to its prominence it enjoyed in the second half of the 20th Century.

What to Make of Gonzaga

Gonzaga’s strength of schedule just barely qualifies for national championship-worthy criteria. However, no team from outside the Power Conferences (AAC, ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, or SEC) has won the national championship since 1990, when UNLV cut down the nets. In three decades, Gonzaga came within a made basket, and Butler came within a rimmed out prayer of pulling off the Mid-Major miracle.

Gonzaga has been compared all season to the 1991 UNLV team that ran the table during the regular season with a scoring margin of close to 30 points, only to fall to Duke in the Final Four.

Could Gonzaga meet a power conference blue blood and meet the same fate as UNLV 30 years ago? Creighton would not be considered a blue blood, and we cannot see the Bulldogs losing Saturday. A win in the Sweet 16 would have GU playing a Pac-12 team in the Elite 8, either USC or Oregon. We cannot count either of these teams as a Duke-like blue blood.

In the National Semifinals, Gonzaga would face either Michigan, Florida State, UCLA, or Alabama. With Isaiah Livers able to play, Michigan would definitely be considered blue blood material. Florida State is in the blue blood neighborhood. UCLA and Alabama are both a little too green to be blue these days.

The Championship Game would present a potential opponent in Baylor that would be a true blue blood team this year. Syracuse might be a powder blue blood with their matchup zone so hard to prepare for when teams have not faced it before.

However, we here on the PiRate ship do not see Gonzaga as the UNLV team three decades later. We see this Bulldogs team more like the 1964 UCLA Bruins 57 years later. By this, we do not refer to playing style. The two teams couldn’t be any more different. Coach John Wooden’s first national champions were small in size; no starter was taller than 6 foot 5 inches. Gonzaga has size and muscle inside.

The 1964 Bruins used a devastating 2-2-1, 3/4 court zone press and occasionally a 1-2-1-1 full court zone press to force tempo and turnovers, while Gonzaga uses a standard half-court defense that relies on pressuring the ball and forcing poor shots, where they can control the boards and run the fast break and secondary break for cheap baskets and then hit the offensive glass for additional chances.

Where the two teams are quite similar is their method for winning games. In going 30-0 in 1964, UCLA put every game away with a 2 to 3 minute scoring run. The best example occurred in the national title game, where a favored Duke team, with two 6 foot 10 inch starters towering over the Bruins, fell under pressure in just 2 1/2 minutes, as the Bruins ran off 16 points in a row.

Gonzaga has this same ability to take a three-point lead and make it a 15-point lead in just a couple minutes of playing time. Their game against BYU in the West Coast Conference Championship Game is a testament to this ability. BYU held a 10-point lead and looked like they were going to do what Saint Mary’s had done in the prior WCC Championship Game. Then, in very little clock time, GU went from 10 down to 10 up, and the game was over.

There is another team remaining with the same ability to go on a major game-clinching scoring run, and that is Houston. Funny how comparing Gonzaga to UCLA brings Houston into the conversation, as Houston and UCLA conjure up memories of past titanic rivals like Dempsey-Tunney, Affirmed-Alydar, and New York Yankees and Brooklyn Dodgers.

Houston is most definitely not considered the favorite to make it to the National Championship Game. They still have to solve the Syracuse zone and then possibly beat the most underrated team in the field in Loyola of Chicago or the team that found lightning in a bottle in Oregon State. Then, they most likely have to dismiss Baylor to make it to their third national championship game in the school’s history.

A Houston-Gonzaga national championship tilt would be quite memorable, and it would be one where both teams enjoy scoring runs that make the outcome unpredictable.

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Sunday, March 21, 2021

Favorite	Underdog	Spread
Baylor	Wisconsin	5.4
Villanova	North Texas	5.7
Arkansas	Texas Tech	1.9
Florida	Oral Roberts	9.9
Illinois	Loyola (Chi.)	6.2
Oklahoma St.	Oregon St.	5.6
West Virginia	Syracuse	2.8
Houston	Rutgers	7.1

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/13/2021
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Michigan	Illinois
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	Oklahoma St.
3	Houston	Arkansas	Kansas	Texas
4	Florida St.	Purdue	West Virginia	Virginia
5	Tennessee	Creighton	Colorado	Villanova
6	Oregon	USC	Texas Tech	Missouri
7	LSU	Oklahoma	Wisconsin	Clemson
8	BYU	Florida	Loyola (Chi.)	North Carolina
9	Rutgers	San Diego St.	Virginia Tech	Connecticut
10	St. Bonaventure	Georgia Tech	VCU	Maryland
11	Wichita St.	Michigan St.	UCLA	Louisville
12	Western Ky.	Winthrop	Syracuse	Drake	Utah St.	Ole Miss
13	UCSB	Liberty	UNCG	Colgate
14	Buffalo	Morehead St.	Abilene Christian	E. Washington
15	Cleveland St.	Grand Canyon	Oral Roberts	Drexel
16	Iona	Mount St. Mary’s	Appalachian St.	Hartford	Norfolk St.	Prairie View A&M

First Four Out–Alternates

69 Saint Louis

70 Colorado St.

71 Boise St.

72 Xavier

Potential Bubble Busters: Memphis. Georgetown, and Oregon St.

A Quick Look At The Bubble

Thursday, March 11 Prior To Start of Today’s Games

It’s just a little more than 80 hours until the Selection Sunday bids are announced. We will have our final bracketology Sunday around 4 PM EST, unless there is a final tournament game that would affect the seeding.

As of this morning, here is our look at the teams in the gray area, on the bubble.

Let’s start with the teams that we believe are currently in the field if the bids were awarded today, but that are vulnerable to being bumped if other teams play their way into the field.

Louisville: The Cardinals lost in their first ACC Tournament game to fellow bubbler Duke. The Cardinals took a 6-spot dive in the Net Ratings after the loss, and they are in jeopardy of falling out of the tournament if a host of teams play their way in. At 13-7, they finished the season 4-6. UL won just one Quad 1 game, but they were 6-1 in Quad 2 games. Their chances of making the field are still about 85-90%, but they could find themselves playing that extra at-large play-in game.

Xavier: The Musketeers are in a much more precarious position following their immediate Big East Tournament ouster. Xavier fell to 62 in the Net, and they too finished 4-6 after starting 9-2. If a couple of teams still playing advance a couple rounds in their tournaments, it could be lights out for the Musketeers. Their chances of making the field are close to 50-50 today.

Drake: The Bulldogs lost to Loyola in the Arch Madness Championship Game to finish 23-4 with two losses to the Ramblers. A #45 Net with a 6-2 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, including one win over Loyola should be enough to keep Drake in a safe spot in this field. Their chances of making the field are about 95%.

Wichita St.: The Selection Committee does not compare teams within the same conference in theory, but when looking at each team’s resumes, they are basically forced to look at who they beat and didn’t beat, and obviously more games are played in-conference, especially this season. Wichita St. is rated behind Memphis in the Net, and their 13-4 record includes a 9-0 mark against Quad 3 & 4 teams. On the plus side, the Shockers finished 9-1 with a win over Houston. The Shockers need to make it to at least the semifinals of the AAC Tournament; a loss to the USF-Temple winner would really jeopardize their tournament hopes. On the good side, Wichita looks to have an express seeding to the AAC Championship Game, so we give them a better than 50-50 chance to Dance.

Syracuse: Yesterday’s pasting of potential Bubble team North Carolina St. has given the Orangemen a legitimate shot to make the field with an upset of Virginia today. SU is now at 39 in the Net. A 1-6 Quad 1 record is poor, but the 5-1 Quad 2 has the Orangemen in position to move into the at-large positive category with a win today. A loss to the Cavs would not totally eliminate SU, depending on what happens in other tournaments. We give SU a 55% chance of making the field. If they stay in the top 40 of the Net, they should get in.

Boise St.: The Mountain West Conference has four teams competing for bids. There might be three awarded. Boise State has 2 Quad 1 wins, and their Net is currently 43. A win over Nevada today is mandatory. If they get that win, then a decent showing against San Diego State tomorrow should be satisfactory. We give BSU a 55-60% chance of making the field.

Colorado St.: Wins at San Diego St. and at Utah St. had the Rams at the top of the MWC in January, but CSU has swooned since and is in danger of playing themselves out of the field. With a Net of 50, a quarterfinal round loss to Fresno St. today would be a dagger in their hearts or dancing shoes. The Rams must win today, and then they might have to beat the Utah St.-UNLV winner tomorrow. If they play USU, it could be an eliminator game.

UCLA: The Bruins are March Madness royalty. The humans on the Selection Committee will find a way to justify placing them in the Dance. A quarterfinal win in the Pac-12 Tournament would more than suffice along with their moving into the top 40 in the Net. UCLA has a 75-80% chance to make the field.

Michigan St.: The Spartans will be hurt if the Net Ratings prove to be as important as the first 16-team pre-selection made by the Committee a month ago. MSU is a low 67 in the Net, but they are coming off a win over 1-seed line Michigan and have 5 Quad 1 wins. The Big Ten schedule, along with a win at Duke, should be enough for Sparty to celebrate with a Dance ticket on Sunday. A win over Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament sets it in stone.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have work to do. They would not be in the field if the Selections were made today, but Ole Miss has a path to get in. They absolutely must defeat South Carolina today and then will have to upset LSU tomorrow to raise their Net of 53 up to the low 40’s at worst. Two wins over Missouri and one over Tennessee are not enough to warrant their selection. Their chances of making the Dance are around 30%.

Utah St.: The Aggies are just outside the Field today, but they swept San Diego State and have a resume ready to move them into the field with a win over UNLV today and then a win over Colorado State in a knockout game tomorrow. If they don’t win two games, they lose out.

SMU: The Mustangs need a lot of help to get in. Teams above them on this list have to play their way out of the field, and SMU needs to do damage in the AAC Tournament, maybe make it to the Championship Game against Houston (not Memphis). A 55 Net is too low to warrant a bid. Their chance to get in is about 20%.

Memphis: It’s awful that the only a desperation heave at the basket by an out of control Houston player could keep the Tigers out of the field. Memphis had a chance to move up into the 40’s in the Net and now sits at 52, which is not good enough. Memphis will have to make it to the Championship Game of the AAC Tournament and face Wichita State in that game to still have an at-large shot. More realistically, the Tigers may need to qualify automatically at this point.

Seton Hall & St. John’s: These two teams face off today in the Big East Tournament. The winner stays alive, while the loser can only think about NIT Selection. The winner still has work to do, maybe needing another tournament win, especially over top-seed Villanova. If Georgetown beats the Hoyas today, then the winner of the SH-SJ game must beat GU tomorrow. St. John’s might still need one more win after that.

Duke: The Eastern equivalent of UCLA, the Blue Devils are March Madness royalty. Like a heavyweight champion in a boxing match, if it goes 15 rounds, the champion will at the least win on a split decision. Duke will qualify for that split decision today if they beat Florida St. The Committee will invent the reason to leapfrog the Blue Devils over eight teams to get them in the Field. A loss today would make them 13-12 with a Net in the 50’s, so they need that win today.

Saint Louis: The Billikens were greatly harmed by a multiple-game cancellation in the regular season. Wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure in the regular season are not going to be enough, and SLU lost to the Bonnies in the A-10 Tournament. It’s not going to be a happy Sunday in the Gateway to the West.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
South Florida	Temple	-2.6
Tulsa	Tulane	2.7
Central Florida	East Carolina	4.7
Virginia	Syracuse	3.4
Georgia Tech	Miami	11.1
Florida St.	Duke	4.8
Virginia Tech	North Carolina	-3.0
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	1.4
Baylor	Kansas St.	22.7
Kansas	Oklahoma	2.6
Texas	Texas Tech	0.3
Villanova	Georgetown	8.6
St. John’s	Seton Hall	-0.2
Creighton	Butler	11.0
Connecticut	DePaul	11.0
Southern Utah	Northern Colorado	6.7
Idaho St.	Montana St.	-1.6
Eastern Washington	Northern Arizona	15.2
Weber St.	Montana	4.9
Maryland	Michigan St.	2.2
Ohio St.	Minnesota	7.3
Rutgers	Indiana	1.3
Wisconsin	Penn St.	2.3
UCSB	Long Beach St.	14.8
UC Davis	Cal St. Bakersfield	-5.4
UC Irvine	Cal Poly	17.1
UC Riverside	Hawaii	7.0
Western Kentucky	UTSA	5.3
UAB	Rice	7.8
Louisiana Tech	Florida Atlantic	8.9
Old Dominion	North Texas	-6.1
Saint Peter’s	Rider	6.2
Marist	Niagara	-1.0
Toledo	Ball St.	8.3
Kent St.	Ohio U	1.1
Buffalo	Miami (O)	8.0
Akron	Bowling Green	1.2
Florida A&M	Morgan St.	-1.2
Norfolk St.	North Carolina Central	4.6
San Diego St.	Wyoming	15.2
Boise St.	Nevada	4.0
Utah St.	UNLV	11.1
Colorado St.	Fresno St.	10.9
Oregon	Arizona St.	7.7
UCLA	Oregon St.	5.4
USC	Utah	7.3
Colorado	California	14.8
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	2.5
Florida	Vanderbilt	7.0
Missouri	Georgia	4.2
Ole Miss	South Carolina	5.1
Northwestern St.	New Orleans	-2.2
Sam Houston St.	Lamar	8.8
Texas Southern	Alcorn St.	7.1
Grambling	Southern	-1.7
California Baptist	Seattle	0.2
New Mexico St.	UT Rio Grande Valley	7.9

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

Championship Game–Saturday, March 13, 11 AM, ESPN2

6 U Mass-Lowell at 4 Hartford

American Athletic Conference

1st Round–Thursday, March 11 @ Fort Worth, TX

8 South Florida vs. 9 Temple (winner plays 1 Wichita St. Friday)

(4 SMU plays 5 Cincinnati Friday)

7 Tulsa vs. 10 Tulane (winner plays 2 Houston Friday)

6 Central Florida vs. 11 East Carolina (winner plays 3 Memphis Friday)

Atlantic Coast Conference

Quarterfinals, Thursday, March 11

1 Virginia vs. 8 Syracuse

4 Georgia Tech vs. 13 Miami (Fla.)

2 Florida St. vs. 10 Duke

3 Virginia Tech vs. 6 North Carolina

Atlantic 10 Conference

Championship Game–Sunday, March 14, 1PM, CBS @ Dayton, OH

1 Saint Bonaventure vs. 2 Virginia Commonwealth

Big East Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ New York, NY

1 Villanova vs. 8 Georgetown

4 St. John’s vs. 5 Seton Hall

2 Creighton vs. 10 Butler

3 Connecticut vs. 11 DePaul

Big Sky Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Boise, ID

1 Southern Utah vs. 8 Northern Colorado

4 Idaho St. vs. 5 Montana St.

2 Eastern Washington vs. 10 Northern Arizona

3 Weber St. vs. 6 Montana

Big Ten Conference

2nd Round–Thursday, March 11 @ Indianapolis, IN

8 Maryland vs. 9 Michigan St.

5 Ohio St. vs. 13 Minnesota

7 Rutgers vs. 10 Indiana

6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Penn St.

Big 12 Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Kansas City, MO

1 Baylor vs. 9 Kansas St.

4 West Virginia vs. 5 Oklahoma St.

2 Kansas vs. 7 Oklahoma

3 Texas vs. 6 Texas Tech

Big West Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

1 UCSB vs. 9 Long Beach St.

4 Cal St. Bakersfield vs. 5 UC-Davis

2 UC-Irvine vs. 10 Cal Poly

3 UC-Riverside vs. 6 Hawaii

Conference USA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Frisco, TX (Dallas Cowboys Practice Facility)

1E Western Kentucky vs. 4W UTSA

2W UAB vs. 6W Rice

1W Louisiana Tech vs. 4E Florida Atlantic

2E Old Dominion vs. 3W North Texas

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals Continue, Thursday, March 11 @ Atlantic City, NJ

4 Marist vs. 5 Niagara

3 St. Peter’s vs. 11 Rider

Mid-American Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Cleveland

1 Toledo vs. 8 Ball St.

4 Kent St. vs. 5 Ohio U

2 Buffalo vs. 7 Miami (O)

3 Akron vs. 6 Bowling Green

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals, Thursday, March 11 @ Norfolk, VA

2S Florida A&M vs. 3N Morgan St.

2N Norfolk St. vs. 3S UNC-Central

Mountain West Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

1 San Diego St. vs. 8 Wyoming

4 Boise St. vs. 5 Nevada

2 Utah St. vs. 7 UNLV

3 Colorado St. vs. 6 Fresno St.

Pac-12 Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

1 Oregon vs. 8 Arizona St.

4 UCLA vs. 5 Oregon St.

2 USC vs. 7 Utah

3 Colorado vs. 11 California

Patriot League

Championship Game, Sunday March 14, 12 PM EST, CBSSN

9 Loyola (MD) at 2 Colgate

Southeastern Conference

2nd Round–Thursday, March 11 @ Nashville, TN

8 Kentucky vs. 9 Mississippi St. (winner plays 1 Alabama Friday)

5 Florida vs. 13 Vanderbilt (winner plays 4 Tennessee Friday)

7 Missouri vs. 10 Georgia (winner plays 2 Arkansas Friday)

6 Ole Miss vs. 11 South Carolina (winner plays 3 LSU Friday)

Southland Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Katy, TX (Greater Houston)

4 Northwestern St. vs. 5 New Orleans

3 Sam Houston St. vs. 6 Lamar

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals Continue, Thursday, March 11 @ Birmingham, AL

4 Grambling vs. 5 Southern

3 Texas Southern vs. 6 Alcorn St.

Western Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

4 California-Baptist vs. 5 Seattle (winner plays 1 Grand Canyon Friday)

3 New Mexico St. vs. 6 UT-Rio Grande Valley (winner plays 2 Utah Valley Friday)

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty 23-5

Winthrop 23-1

Loyola (Chi.) 24-4

Morehead St. 23-7

UNC-Greensboro 21-8

Appalachian St. 17-11

Drexel 12-7

Cleveland St. 19-7

Mount St. Mary’s 12-10

Oral Roberts 16-10

Gonzaga 26-0

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/8/2021
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Michigan	Illinois
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	West Virginia
3	Houston	Arkansas	Kansas	Villanova
4	Purdue	Texas	Oklahoma St.	Florida St.
5	Virginia	Texas Tech	USC	Tennessee
6	Creighton	Colorado	Clemson	Oklahoma
7	Oregon	Missouri	Wisconsin	Florida
8	BYU	LSU	Virginia Tech	Connecticut
9	Rutgers	San Diego St.	Loyola (Chi.)	North Carolina
10	Maryland	St. Bonaventure	UCLA	Louisville
11	Georgia Tech	Michigan St.	VCU	Colorado St.
12	Western Ky.	Toledo	Boise St.	Drake	Wichita St.	Xavier
13	UCSB	Winthrop	Liberty	Colgate
14	UNCG	S. Dakota St.	Morehead St.	Abilene Chr.
15	E. Washington	Georgia St.	Siena	Cleveland St.
16	Northeastern	Bryant	Grand Canyon	Hartford	Norfolk St.	Prairie View A&M

Teams in Bold have secured automatic bids

The Bad Side of the Bubble

69	Ole Miss
70	Syracuse
71	Utah St.
72	Saint Louis
73	Seton Hall
74	SMU
75	St. John’s
76	North Carolina St.

Bracketnomics Tutorial Release Coming This Week!

Until recently, when our breakthrough Sabertooth Baseball Game went viral due to a Facebook post that we still do not know who the benevolent benefactor of great news is, our most popular annual activity here on the PiRate Ratings has been “Bracketnomics.”

For years, we have used technical statistics and other data to isolate the real March Madness contenders from the pretenders and to eliminate certain higher seeds due to their possessing “uh-oh” stats that show them ripe for a quick upset.

We were all set to debut our latest evolution of Bracketnomics last year, until Covidnomics defeated all sports in March of 2020. It gave us extra time to scour our resources and to look for more trends, in addition to the tried and true methods we have used for years.

Coming Friday, we will release our Bracketnomics 2021 Tutorial, so you can have the weekend to look it over and use the information the best way you know how. Please let the best way you know how be a method that involves no financial risk.

The PiRate Ratings personal creation of “R+T” Rating, schedule strength, and the Four Factors still hold considerable importance, but the handicapping of each data point has changed. Other sets of data added to the mix should let you clearly see which teams have the look of past national champions, Final Four participants, and even Cinderella Mid-Majors that might be ready to wear the slipper until there are just eight teams remaining.

Oh, and if you haven’t heard about our advanced analytics tabletop baseball game that went viral over the weekend, you can check it out at our sister site: https://sabertoothbaseball.wordpress.com and order a game at https://sabertooth-baseball.square.site , or click the link in the WordPress site.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
La Salle	Saint Joseph’s	0.6
George Washington	Fordham	4.3
Tulane	Wichita St.	-4.5
Syracuse	Clemson	0.8
Notre Dame	NC St.	2.4
Florida St.	Boston College	14.9
Seton Hall	Connecticut	0.2
St. John’s	Providence	2.6
Villanova	Creighton	1.6
Eastern Washington	Idaho St.	13.7
Penn St.	Minnesota	3.1
Northwestern	Maryland	-2.6
North Carolina A&T	South Carolina St.	12.0
North Carolina Central	Florida A&M	0.4
Colorado St.	New Mexico	18.8
UNLV	San Diego St.	-12.3
Wagner	Merrimack	6.1
Belmont	SIU Edwardsville	16.4
Morehead St.	Southeast Missouri St.	8.7
Utah	Oregon St.	3.8
Oregon	UCLA	2.4
USC	Stanford	7.7
Boston U	Lehigh	7.2
Florida	Missouri	4.9
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	-3.7
Sam Houston St.	Texas A&M-CC	14.7
New Orleans	Northwestern St.	3.0
Houston Baptist	Incarnate Word	0.4
Central Arkansas	Southeast Louisiana	1.5
Stephen F. Austin	Abilene Christian	-3.1