The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 16, 2017

The Best of the Best and Where They Might Be Vulnerable

Every year about this time, a group of anywhere from a half dozen to 30 college basketball teams rank as possible national title contenders.  In some years, only a handful of teams have reasonable title aspirations.  In some years, there are no clear cut favorites, and many teams could become Cinderella’s with the perfect fit for the glass slipper.

There has been a bit of a paradigm shift in college basketball the last two seasons.  It wasn’t much of a change, but lowering the shot clock from 35 to 30 seconds has done a world of good for the game.  The 14% less time per possession has led to 8-12 more possessions per game for each team.  Teams that three years ago averaged 65 possessions per game are today pushing the ball to the tune of 80 possessions per game.

Contrary to what may have been predicted, offensive efficiency has not gone down.  It has gone up, because the layup and dunk off a fast break when the attacking team has a number’s advantage has led to more points per possession.  The offensive increase has once again made college basketball as exciting as it was in its hey days of the 1960’s and 1970’s.

Also contrary to belief, the increased pace has not created a new UCLA dynasty in the men’s game like U Conn has done with the women’s side.  There are more than enough quality athletes throughout the nation and the world to make 100 teams competitive enough to win an NCAA Tournament game and 25 teams strong enough to reel off six consecutive wins after March 10.

We are not saying that the following 25 teams are the best 25 in the nation.  We have taken a sampling of the top teams from power conferences, the two or three current leaders from among the leagues just shy of being a power conference, as well as a couple of teams from mid-major conferences.

Today’s first look at the contenders will concentrate on showing you how the Four Factors and some of our own PiRate Ratings criteria can isolate where a contender might be vulnerable come NCAA Tournament time.  When it comes time for the teams to have one shining moment, the game changes a little.

In the past, teams that got to the Dance by beating opponents at the foul line sometimes floundered in the tournament, because officials let the players have a little more leeway before blowing their whistles.

Additionally, some teams that went 28-4 in the regular season but did so by running opponents out of the gym or holding onto the ball in a slower-paced offense found that quality opponents like they faced in the Dance did not succumb to their methods of operation.

Likewise, some full court pressure teams that entered the Dance with large scoring margin advantages (often padded by beating poor teams by 40 points), found that quality ball-control teams did not turn the ball over and allow these teams to score in transition.  These pressing teams had little half-court offense and quickly fell to teams that turned the ball over 10 times per game.

Today, we look at 25 chosen teams to tell you where they can exploit other quality teams, and also where they are vulnerable.  As you will see in this first look, there are no teams today that are not totally vulnerable in some way.  Thus, there is no clear-cut favorite to cut down the nets in Phoenix on April 3.  In point of fact, as we see it today, there are a couple dozen quality teams capable of making the Final Four, and yet all of these teams have an Achilles’ Heel and could lose before the Sweet 16 commences.

Before we get into the meat of this report, there could be a few readers not totally familiar with the Four Factors in basketball.  It is not rocket science.  The Four Factors (applies to both offense and defense) are:

  1. Field Goal Efficiency
  2. Turnover Rate
  3. Offensive Reboundin Rate
  4. Free Throw Rate

Field Goal Efficiency: [FGM+(3ptM * 0.5)]/FGA

Where FGM is field goals made; 3ptM is three-pointers made; and FGA is field goals attempted.  If your favorite team attempted 60 shots in a game and made 28 of these shots with 8 coming as three-pointers, then their FG Efficiency is [28+(8*0.5)]/60 which equals .533 or 53.3%

The difference between the offensive FG efficiency and the defensive FG efficiency is the FG efficiency margin.  This is by far the most important contributory part to winning in basketball, which is obvious, since the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket and score points, while limiting the opponents from putting the ball in the basket.

Turnover Rate:  TOV/100 Possessions figured as:  [TOV/(FGA+(FTA*0.475)+TOV]*100 and expressed as a percentage

This is a simple metric.  All it seeks to discover is how many turnovers does a team commit for every 1oo possessions.  There is a small adjustment in what qualifies as a possession for this metric as opposed to actual possessions.  Offensive rebounds are not factored into the possession counting here, as once a team secures an offensive rebound, they have already attempted a shot without committing a turnover.  The chance for a turnover after this is limited and can skew the real rate at which a team turns the ball over or forces their opponent to turn the ball over.

If your team committed 14 turnovers in a game in which they took 60 field goal attempts and 25 free throw attempts, their turnover rate for that game was: [14/(60+(25*.475)+14]*10o which comes to: 16.3%

Offensive Rebounding Rate: [OR/(OR+ Opponents’ DR)]*100, 

Where OR is offensive rebounds and DR is defensive rebounds.

If your team had 12 offensive rebounds, and their opponent had 32 defensive rebounds, your team’s offensive rebounding rate was: [12/(12+32)] * 100 which is 27.3%

Obviously, the compliment to this is defensive rebounding rate, which is the same formula applied to the opponents’ rebounding.

Free Throw Rate: FTM/100 Possessions or (FTM/[FGA+(FTA*0.475)-OR+TOV]) *100

There is a difference of opinion on how the expert analytics gurus figure this metric.  Some simple use FTA/FGA.  Some prefer FTM/FGA.  We have heard arguments in favor of both of these metrics, but we really liked a paper written by The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective’s John Ezekowitz, who argued for the metric we chose above in his February 21, 2011, paper entitled Re-examining The Four Factors: The Case For Free Throws Made Per 100 Possessions.

Putting It All Together

The key to the four factors is finding an algorithm in which the results of each team can be turned into some form of a rating or to produce a spread for a game between teams.  What good is it to know that Team A has X, Y, Z, and W rates in the four factors, and their opponent has a little better X and Z, and weaker Y and W rates.  So, where does that get us?  Only when the Four Factors can be turned into a rating of some sort is the data useful to the fan.

The PiRates tried for a few years to come up with an accurate rating from the Four Factors.  Our original mistake was assuming the different factors would not affect the college game any different than it does the NBA, where the numbers were determined to be 40% FG efficiency, 25% turnover rate, 20% offensive rebounding rate, and 15% free throw rate.

This did not make for an accurate rating when applied to college teams and uses to compare them in a point spread sort of way.  Whereas the NBA teams basically play equal schedules in terms of strengths of opponents (once enough games had been played), this cannot be said of the college game, where one team’s schedule could be as much as 20 points per game stronger than another team’s schedule.  Also, in the NBA, every team plays 41 home games and 41 road games.  The top college teams might schedule 19 home games, 3 neutral games, and just 9 road games.

We also realized that not all turnovers are the same.  A steal is worth more than any other type of turnover, because the ball remains live, and the defense frequently finds itself with a 2 on 1 or 3 on 2 fast break opportunity following a high percentage of their steals.  In the college game, more full court pressure can lead to steals that produce a lot of easy baskets, whereas in the NBA, this is a rare occurrence.

After much trial and error, we came up with three separate algorithms that when back-tested in past seasons produced acceptable predictive results.

Now, we can take a look at these 25 teams and make some assumptions based on their four factors data to date.  We can add some PiRate Rating data (like our unique R+T formula) to polish our beliefs.

The numbers you see below are our Blue Rating Scores for each of the Four Factors plus the Strength of Schedule score, the R+T rating, and the teams rating in true road and neutral games (neutral games when a team plays in another gym in their area against an out of town team does not count–like Kansas playing a Big East team in Kansas City).

AAC

Cincinnati: FG 6.4  TO 0.8  OR 0.6  FT 0.2  SOS 56.1  R+T 18.4 Rd W-L 4-2

The Bearcats do not excel in any one factor, but they are better than average in all factors.  Their SOS is good but not great, and their R+T rating is very good.  They will benefit from having extra scoring opportunities.  Cinti will run into trouble against big muscle teams from the power conferences, and they will struggle against teams that play choking man to man defense.  However, this team has enough talent to make it to the second weekend of the Big Dance.

ACC

Virginia: FG 12.0   TO 4.7   OR 4.3   FT -1.2   SOS 59.6   R+T 16.2   Rd W-L 6-1

The Cavaliers are going to be a tough out for any opponent in the NCAA Tournament.  Their style of defense will destroy teams that cannot shoot from the perimeter, and the Cavs will also exploit teams that do not have excellent passers.  To beat UVa, you must be able to pass the ball quick enough from the strong side to the weak side and then penetrate their interior defense for either an open look inside or a pass to a wide open three-point shooter.  Virginia will not beat itself.  Wisconsin and Arizona could be trouble for the Cavs, whereas Virginia could be a tough out for a team like Florida.

North Carolina: FG 6.4  TO 3.7   OR 17.4   FT 7.7   SOS 58.9   R+T 33.6   Rd W-L 7-3

The Tar Heels have the look of a Final Four team.  However, they have some small vulnerabilities.  First, they are not the best shooting team in Chapel Hill history, in fact far from it.  They do make up for this by being the best offensive rebounding team in college basketball.  They are not that shabby in the turnover department either, and thus, they have the best R+T rating in many years.  By the time the season moves into March, UNC will either be unbeatable and peaking at the right time or a major disappointment due to fatigue and injuries.  This is one team we cannot see losing prior to the Sweet 16, as they will be a 1 or 2 seed and no 15 or 16 seed can compete with them, with only a slim chance that a 7 or 8 seed can keep a game within single digits.

The team that beats UNC will be the team that can muscle their way under the basket and make the rebounding part of the equation only a minor Tar Heel victory.  Said team will also have to force the Heels into a few more turnovers than normal and produce some quick points off those turnovers.  West Virginia and Kentucky are the teams that will give UNC fits, while a great shooting team like UCLA or Gonzaga will find that they must do more than shoot lights out to beat this team.

Florida St.: FG 11.2   TO 2.8   OR 2.5   FT 2.4   SOS 58.6   R+T 15.6   Rd W-L 4-2

The Seminoles are going to be a tough match-up for teams outside the ACC that have never played against them.  Their style of play will lead to large victories in the early rounds of the tournament, but once FSU faces stiff competition, their inconsistent style of play will hurt their chances.  There will be many teams with a resume similar to theirs from amongst the power leagues.  FSU will be more like a poor man’s Kentucky.  They might win by 20-30 in the opening game, and they might make it to the Sweet 16 by way of a double digit win in their next game, but once they get to the Sweet 16, the Seminoles should be a quick out against a quality opponent like Villanova, Kansas, or Oregon.

Louisville: FG 6.5   TO 4.8  OR 7.9   FT 1.7   SOS 62.9   R+T 20.3   Rd W-L 5-2

Don’t dismiss this edition of Cardinals.  Rick Pitino knows how to coach in March, and there is enough talent at the Yum Center to guide UL to the Final Four.  The Cards have played a tough schedule to date and pulling off numbers like their current Four Factors against the opposition they have faced is a sign of a top 10 team.  In most years, these numbers would be the best in the nation, and even in a year where there are many great teams, these numbers stick out as among the best.

To beat the Cards, it is going to take a team that can shut off their inside game and force UL to beat them from the perimeter.  Not many teams can do this, but there are some potential teams out there that can send the Cards home, such as Virginia from their own league, Oregon, and Purdue.

Notre Dame: FG 8.5   TO 4.0   OR 0.2   FT 3.8   SOS 56.3   R+T 11.2   Rd W-L 5-2

The Fighting Irish have been consistently good for several years but with also a consistent liability.  Notre Dame has not been a dominant rebounding team since Digger Phelps retired.  While, the Irish have numbers strong enough to indicate they are Sweet 16 worthy, they do not have the dominating inside game that will get them to Phoenix.  A host of quality teams are out there that can hit the glass and limit ND to one shot per possession, and the Irish are bound to face one of them if they make it to the Sweet 16.  Baylor, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Kentucky could send Mike Brey’s bunch home to Indiana.  On the other hand, Notre Dame could be a tough opponent for UCLA, Villanova, or Maryland.

Big 12

West Virginia: FG 7.2    TO 16.0   OR 5.8   FT 5.1   SOS 53.7   R+T 27.2   Rd W-L 5-2

The jury is still out on this team, even though our PiRate Blue metrics say that Coach Bob Huggins has the currently top team in the land.  Huggie Bear’s Mountaineers have to prove they can sustain these fat metric ratings against the top teams.  WVU’s SOS is rather low for a Power Conference team, and they have yet to face Kansas or any tough team on enemy hardwood.  Their toughest road game to date came against Texas Tech, and they flunked that exam.

If WVU can keep their TO rate at astronomically high numbers and also maintain their better than average rebound rate, they are capable of making it to Phoenix.  Whereas many pressing teams eventually run into a team that does not fret the pressure and actually exploits it for points, WVU is more than your typical on the line/up the line gimmick defense.  This team can win by dominating on the glass, getting the ball inside for easy baskets, hitting the three, and playing strong half-court defense.  Once again, until they play Kansas a couple times, Kansas State on the road, as well as road trips to Iowa State and Baylor, it is too early to make a logical call on this team.

Baylor: FG 11.1   TO -0.2   OR 9.5   FT 8.1   SOS 61.8   R+T 20.5   Rd W-L 6-1

 

Scott Drew has been to the Elite 8 before, and this Baylor team looks like his next Elite 8 club.  Until the Bears face a team that can force the issue and pressure the ball, they look like a favorite to advance in each round.  As West Virginia showed, Baylor is not equipped to handle crazy pressure.  Other teams that might exploit this weakness include Virginia, Butler, Kentucky, and Florida.  And, if a mid-major like UNC-Wilmington or Middle Tennessee meets the Bears in the round of 32, Baylor will have to bring their A-game to avoid a major upset loss.

Kansas: FG 11.2   TO 1.7   OR 6.2  FT 0.1   SOS 59.1   R+T 16.4   Rd W-L  4-1

The Jayhawks have been flying under the radar if that is possible, but now that KU has ascended to the top of the charts, they will be on the center stage every game they occupy the penthouse.  Bill Self always has a contender in Lawrence, so this should come as no surprise when we say that the Jayhawks have the right stuff to make it all the way to the Final Four.  They can shoot the ball with the best of them, and they can defend the ball with the best of them.  They are not world-beaters anywhere else, but their other metrics are quite strong.  And, they have produced these numbers against a very good schedule.  KU has another big bonus, something they had when they won the title back in 1988.  With a star like Frank Mason III, teams will have to concentrate and dedicate another defender to stop this star.  That might work against some teams, but KU has five or six other players that can carry the team, so it is impossible to really double up on Mason.  If you are old enough to remember 1988, this reminds us of Danny Manning.

Big East

Villanova: FG 12.1   TO 1.6   OR 4.1    FT 9.6   SOS 61.1    R+T 16.1    Rd W-L 8-1

The Wildcats have proven so far this year to be good enough to repeat as National Champions, and in point of fact, at this point in the season compared to last year, they are a better team.  The rub is that so are about 30 other dominating teams.  VU has been putting teams away by getting their regulars into foul trouble from making quick moves to the basket.  Unlike other teams with very high FT rates, they are less likely to suffer from how the game is called differently in the Big Dance, because officials will blow their whistles on drives to the basket that produce contact.

Considering ‘Nova has put up these gaudy numbers against A+ competition, and they have an 8-1 record away from Philly, they are more than capable of making it back to Phoenix.  But, as Alabama just found out in football, getting back to the title game and winning it, are in different universes.  Villanova wants no part of North Carolina in a rematch.

Creighton: FG 12.5   TO 2.7   OR -3.4   FT 2.7    SOS 58.8   R+T 7.3    Rd W-L 7-0

Every year, one or two highly-rated teams gets sent home from the Dance early by a mid-major team that can exploit the power team’s weakness.  Creighton has the resume of a power team that could be susceptible to an early round loss.  Their negative rebounding rate might be covered up by other assets during the regular season, but come tournament time, just about every opponent they might face will be able to exploit this poor metric.  If their TO rate was really good, they could overcome this liability, but this is not the case, as the Blue Jays are just average or a little below in this department as well.  Their R+T rating is too low to make it to the Elite 8, and the Sweet 16 is their ceiling.  If they make it to the Sweet 16, teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Kentucky can beat them by double digits.

Butler: FG 6.5   TO 5.1   OR 0.1   FT 2.1   SOS 61.3  R+T 10.0   Rd W-L 5-3

When Butler made back-to-back appearances in the National Championship Game, their Four Factors numbers were consistently good but not outstanding in any category.  This Butler team has somewhat inconsistent numbers compared to those Bulldog teams, but at the same time, they are stronger in the turnover rates and have played a much tougher schedule to date than those teams that won five tournament games.

Butler is probably a little too inconsistent this year to win five games and make it to the championship.  They might be better equipped to beat a North Carolina or Kansas than the 2010 and 2011 teams, but this Bulldog edition could easily stub its toe right out of the gates and not get a chance to upset teams like the 2010 and 2011 teams did (Syracuse, Kansas State, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Florida).

Big Ten

The Big Ten has been able to make it to the Final Four multiple times in recent years, but no league team has cut down the nets since Michigan State in 2000 (Maryland was in the ACC when they won in 2002).  There are a couple teams this year capable of giving it a good try.

Wisconsin: FG 8.9  TO 3.9  OR 15.9   FT 2.6    SOS 52.7  R+T 28.8   Rd W-L 4-3

The Badgers have played a rather weak schedule to date, and that could send their current numbers much lower once the better Big Ten opponents have been faced away from Madison.  With Bronson Koenig, Ethan Happ, and Nigel Hayes, the Badgers have a trio of quality players good enough to carry them to the Final Four.  In past years, overall team speed was an issue with this team, but the Badgers have quickness, finesse, and power this year.  UW has been much, much better at home than away from home, and a lot of teams that go 18-0 at home and 9-6 away from home leave the Dance early.  A quality team that is headed to the Elite 8 usually wins 70% or more of its games away from home, and UW is just 4-3 at this point.  Of course, those three losses came to Creighton, North Carolina, and Purdue.  Recent road wins against Marquette and Indiana could be an indication that UW is on the verge of breaking out and becoming a serious contender.

Maryland: FG 6.1  TO 0.5   OR 3.4  FT 7.5  SOS 56.4   R+T 8.8  Rd W-L 6-0

An aside: Back in the days when only one team per conference went to the NCAA Tournament, Maryland had a team that was good enough to win the national championship but was just a couple points away from getting a chance to play in it.  The 1974 Terrapins went 23-5.  Their five losses represent the best five-loss team in history.  Loss number one came at the hands of #1 UCLA in Pauley Pavillion to open the season (Bruins had won more than 70 consecutive games), in a game in which the officiating was very generous to the Bruins and yet UM lost by just one point and had a chance to win the game at the buzzer.  Loss number two came at North Carolina State, who had won 35 of its previous 36 games (lone loss to UCLA) and who would be the eventual national champs.  This loss was a six-point loss, and the Terps led this game into the second half before a Wolf Pack rally won it for the home team.  Loss number three came on the road against #4 North Carolina, yet another contest where UM had a chance to win until late in the second half.  The Terps only home loss came against NC State, who by now would not lose again until the following season.  This loss to the Pack was another close affair with UM losing by six after leading in the second half.  You can probably guess where loss number five came.  Once again, NC State topped UM in the ACC Championship Game in what is probably the best every ACC Title game.  State won by a score of 103-100 in overtime.  Maryland’s 23 wins were mostly lopsided affairs.  Even the two other contests against North Carolina were not close, as the Terps won by 11 in College Park and by 20 in Greensboro in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

What has that got to do with this year’s Terp team?  Nothing, except this year’s UM team will be in the Big Dance even if they do not win the Big Ten Tournament or the regular season title.  However, this year’s UM team is primed to be an early round upset loser, because it is nowhere near as talented as that 1974 team that featured John Lucas, Tom McMillen, and Len Elmore.  That UM team out-shot quality opposition by 11%, out-rebounded them by 11 per game, and outscored them by 17 points per game.

Purdue: FG 10.1  TO -0.7  OR 10.5  FT 8.3   SOS 55.9  R+T 19.7   Rd W-L 5-2

We could give another history lesson on this Big Ten team.  Purdue has been to the Final Four twice before, but both times, it was with teams that played an entirely different style of basketball from this team and from all the teams during the Gene Keady era.

We have a lot of respect for Coach Keady and his successful disciples, including current Boilermaker coach Matt Painter.  However, history has not been kind to the “Keady system” in NCAA Tournament history.  Purdue never made it to the Final Four with all the highly-ranked teams of the 1980’s and 1990’s and seldom made it past the second game.  Case in point, last year, the Boilermakers left the Dance immediately, losing to Arkansas-Little Rock in their first game.

Why is it that Purdue has under-performed so consistently for so many years?  Coach Keady and his disciples strongly advocate an intelligent offensive half-court set and tough man-to-man defense to prevent good shots.  That works well in the regular season, as teams like this routinely play smart ball and beat all the teams they are supposed to beat, and even upset some better teams.  But, when you get into the second week of March, the opposition is usually as good as you at shooting and preventing good shots.  Games are more frequently decided by which team gets more opportunities to shoot.  Thus rebounding and turnover margin play significantly more important roles than they do in the regular season.  Purdue has not been a consistently tough team on the boards, and they do not pressure the passing lanes.

This year’s Boilermaker squad is one of the best rebounding teams in Mackey Arena in a long time, but once again, PU is stinking it up in the turnover rate metric.  The rebounding strength could get Painter’s squad past the first game and maybe even into the Sweet 16, but when the Boilermakers run into a team like Butler, Kentucky, or Florida, or even a Mid-major like UNC-Wilmington or Middle Tennessee, they are going to have a tough time advancing.  And, should they find West Virginia in their bracket…..

Pac-12

UCLA: FG 14.2   TO 0.3   OR -1.0   FT 3.2   SOS 53.4   R+T 10.0   Rd W-L 8-1

This might be the most exciting team to watch, but this UCLA team suffers from the same issues that Purdue suffers from as stated above.  When the Bruins are hot, they can put any team away, and their win at Kentucky showed this.  However, they will run into defenses that can slow them down when they get to March, and the Bruins do not have what it takes to get additional scoring chances through rebounding and turnover margin.  Additionally, the Bruins have played a lot of cupcakes this year, and a lot of their shooting stats have been aided by playing weak defensive teams.  Until they are ousted thought, Lonzo Ball and company promise to give the fan his or her money’s worth.

Oregon: FG 10.2   TO 3.0   OR 7.5   FT 6.5   SOS 57.1   R+T 19.5   Rd W-L 5-2

The Ducks could be a contender for the Final Four.  After a slow start, Oregon has now won 14 consecutive games and looks like the team the pundits expected they would be this season.  The Ducks have a really tough closing stretch in the regular season with seven consecutive tough games between February 4 and 25.  Included in this slate is a three-game stretch against Arizona, UCLA, and USC, with the latter two on the road.  If Oregon can come through this three-week stretch without injuries or undue fatigue, this team can repeat its performance of last year and maybe make it one round past what it did last year.  That would mean they make it to Phoenix.

Arizona: FG  8.3  TO 0.6   OR 7.3   FT 10.4   SOS 58.1   R+T 20.2   Rd W-L 5-2

At first glance, Arizona’s numbers don’t look much different than Oregon’s above.  Look a little closer.  This is a team that relies a bit too much on free throw rate and is vulnerable against a team that can pressure the ball and force turnovers.  Arizona wants no part of West Virginia, but they could fall prey to a lesser pressure team or a team that turns the ball over less than 10 times a game like Virginia.  In their loss to Gonzaga, the Wildcats turned the ball over nine times in the first half and didn’t shoot well, and Gonzaga pulled out to a double digit lead.  Arizona did get to the foul line several times, but they missed too many foul shots to get back in the game.  This is likely to happen to them in an NCAA Sweet 16 game if UA makes it that far.

SEC

Kentucky: FG  9.1  TO 6.7   OR 7.4   FT 4.7   SOS 61.1   R+T 22.3   Rd W-L 6-1

This is always a tough team to figure out.  Annually, John Calipari recruits the top talent in the nation to Lexington, and Kentucky has better talent than every team on its schedule.  However, that talent is almost always freshmen, and even five McDonald’s All-Americans as college freshmen are bound to play a bit inconsistently.  On any given night, these future NBA stars are liable to blow out an average team by 30 to 40 points.  On any given night, these future NBA stars are liable to fiddle around and allow a mediocre team to stay in contention.

In Kentucky’s favor, these freshmen will have 33 to 35 games of experience by the time the NCAA Tournament begins, and the Wildcats will have a 1 or 2 seed, able to get to the Sweet 16 just by showing up.  Once at the Sweet 16, this team will have the talent and tools to keep winning, but they will still be just raw enough to lay an egg and go home with a disappointing loss.

It will take a muscle team to beat Kentucky, one that can throw its weight around on the glass, make their fouls count more like unnecessary roughness penalties in football, and has the ability to outscore the Wildcats from behind the arc.

Florida: FG 3.1  TO 6.6  OR 1.7   FT 8.9   SOS 63.0   R+T 11.4   Rd W-L 8-3

Here is a really interesting team.  At first glance, this Florida team looks like many of the Florida teams under former coach Billy Donovan.  The Gators’ ball-hawking defense tends to lead to more scoring opportunities for the orange and blue than for their opponents.  However, the really good Gator teams under Donovan played incredible half-court defense.  This Gator team is a bit weak defending inside, and that will be their downfall in March.  The Gators are adequate but not great shooting the ball, and when they don’t force a turnover, they are not great at stopping the ball from going through the opponents’ basket.

One thing in UF’s favor is their schedule has prepared them to play top-flight teams.  Outside of the league Florida played Seton Hall, Miami, Gonzaga, Florida State, and Duke.

South Carolina: FG 7.8   TO 4.9   OR 4.6   FT -5.4   SOS 56.2   R+T 13.9   Rd W-L 4-2

You have to look at South Carolina’s statistics a bit differently than just viewing their numbers.  This is a tale of two teams.  There is the USC team that is 11-0 when its best player, Sindarius Thornwell has been healthy enough to play, and there is the USC team that is 3-3 when Thornwell has not played.

The bad news for SEC teams is that Thornwell is close to 100% well again, and the Gamecocks are 4-0 in the league because of it.  A healthy Thornwell is a threat to record a triple double or score 20 points and pull down a dozen boards, while playing exemplary defense.

If the Gamecocks stay healthy this year, they look like a near lock to make the Dance, and once they get there, we have faith in Coach Frank Martin that they will play multiple games.  USC’s defense is tournament worthy, and they have just enough offense to pull away in the second half.  Their major liability is at the foul line, where they commit more than an average number of fouls.  However, this stat suffered considerably during Thornwell’s absence.  Since his return, the Gamecocks have a much better showing.

The Rest

Gonzaga: FG 15.6  TO 1.6   OR  2.6  FT 5.6   SOS 55.9  R+T 16.9   Rd W-L 7-0

Gonzaga faces a similar task that Wichita State faced in 2014, when they went 34-0 in the regular season.  The Bulldogs are the last undefeated team standing at 17-0, and the way they dominated St. Mary’s Saturday night, many sports professionals are calling for an undefeated regular season.  They still have to go to St. Mary’s, and they have to play at BYU, so they could still lose one or two regular season games this year.

Gonzaga has been a number one seed before as well as the top-ranked team in the nation, and things did not go all that well for the Bulldogs.  In 2013, the Zags entered NCAA Tournament play with a 31-2 record.  They almost became the first number one seed to lose to a 16-seed, when they had to hold on to narrowly edge Southern University in the Round of 64.  Then, GU fell in the Round of 32 to Wichita State, and the Shockers rolled to the Final Four from there.

Might things be different this year for Mark Few’s squad?  Gonzaga looks a lot like UCLA.  They are not quite as good shooting the ball, but they are a tad better defending the ball.  They are considerably better on the boards, but by the time the Dance begins to tap, their strength of schedule will have dropped to a point where they may not be ready to face a quality team in the Sweet 16.  The Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga team that made it to the Elite 8 was more equipped for the tournament than this year’s squad, so we believe Gonzaga will fall in the Sweet 16 round.

Nevada: FG 5.4   TO -1.8   OR 3.5   FT 9.8   SOS 52.3   R+T 8.0   Rd W-L 8-3

If you consider Gonzaga not to be a mid-major, then Nevada is the best non Power Conference team in the West this year, but the Wolfpack are a paper tiger.  They do not have the numbers to be a serious contender like some former Mountain West Conference teams in the past.  Their low R+T number coming from a below average schedule strength means Nevada is likely to exit the Dance quickly and by double digits.  We wanted to include them here today so you can compare them to the two mid-majors most likely to advance to the second weekend this year.

UNC-Wilmington: FG 3.8   TO 7.1   OR 3.7   FT -2.0  SOS 51.2   R+T 12.9  Rd W-L 9-2

UNCW gave Duke a big scare last year in the Round of 64, and this year’s team is better, capable of making a run to the Sweet 16.  Coach Kevin Keatts is a Rick Pitino disciple, and we would not be shocked to see Keatts taking over a big time program sooner rather than later.  He has all the tools to be a star on the big stage, and his team plays like it deserves a shot on basketball’s Broadway.

UNCW’s biggest liability is their negative FT rate.  This has come about because the Seahawks commit a lot of fouls with their pressure defense.  We tend to believe that some of this has been because they have played a lot of games on the road, where the officials whistled them for more fouls than they would have received had they been at home.  When the NCAA Tournament begins, a lot of the plays in which they might have been whistled for a foul in the regular season will no longer draw a foul call.

UNCW is the poor man’s West Virginia, and they could easily be this year’s Stephen F. Austin.  Beware if your favorite big time program makes the Tournament and they draw this team, and your team is like Purdue, Baylor, UCLA, Arizona, or Creighton.  The Seahawk press can produce a quick burst of points and put your team behind the eight ball.

Middle Tennessee: FG 3.7  TO 5.0  OR 7.4  FT -2.5  SOS 56.3  R+T 17.5  Rd W-L 8-1

If you like UNCW’s chances, then you’ll love Middle Tennessee’s chances this year.  This is the CUSA team that upset Michigan State in last year’s tournament, and this year’s Blue Raider squad is maybe 10 points better than last year’s group.  Middle Tennessee actually played UNCW over the Thanksgiving holiday and beat the Seahawks by five.  The Blue Raiders went on the road to Ole Miss and destroyed the Rebels in the first half with a 29-point halftime lead before coasting to a 15-point win.  They repeated the performance against SEC neighbor Vanderbilt winning by 23 and never being challenged.

The Blue Raiders could have 30 wins when the NCAA Tournament begins, and it would not surprise us if they receive a seed as high as 9 or 10.  Of course, this would mean they would play a 1 or 2 seed in the Round of 32 should they win their first game.  The Blue Raiders’ fans should root for your team to draw a team like Purdue, Notre Dame, Creighton, Butler, or Maryland in the first game and not someone like West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oregon, or Kentucky.  Of course, these teams are most likely to be encountered after the opening game, which means the Blue Raiders should be a hot pick in the Round of 64.

We did not include the 25 best teams in this presentation.  There are many other quality teams like Indiana, Duke, Miami, TCU, Xavier, Akron, Illinois State, California, Utah, USC, and New Mexico State.

We hope you enjoyed this piece and learned a little about how the Four Factors has been part of the new analytical study of basketball.

Coming Friday: We take our next stab at the Field of 68, and if we can get our gurus to send us the information in time, we will debut our annual Bracketology Guru report.  Shout out to the Gurus that have not done so–please return the email we sent you to tell us if you plan to participate this year.  If we do not have enough information to debut our guru composite, we will attempt to select 68 teams ourselves.

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September 24, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–September 26-28, 2013

Interesting Games For Week 5

 

Thursday Night:

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

Usually when a spread option team that relies on the veer as its primary weapon breaks in a new starting quarterback, its offense suffers and takes several games to get in synch.  Vad Lee is not your typical new starter, as he receive a lot of playing time last year in Coach Paul Johnson’s option attack.  With Lee as the chief engineer, Tech’s offensive production has looked much like that of Oklahoma in the Barry Switzer days.  The Jackets average 345 rushing yards per game at a 5.7 yard per attempt clip, and they gain an average of 10.7 yards per passing attempt.  These are numbers of an offense that can score on anybody.  Now, add to that a much improved defense that yields just 275 yards per game, and you have a key contender in the Coastal Division of the ACC.

Virginia Tech has been quite the disappointment so far, even though the Hokies are 3-1 like they were expected to be after four games.  This is not the program it was two years ago, and the Va. Tech offense is in bad need of a tune-up.  The defense is still credible, but it will need an effort much like the 2009 defense if the Hokies are to return to Blacksburg with a 4-1 record.

Saturday

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

The Crimson Tide were as flat as Western Nebraska last week, as they slept walked through the Colorado St. game.  Ole Miss had an extra week to prepare for this game after the mild upset at Texas.

Last year, Ole Miss looked like they belonged in this game, even though Alabama won 33-14.  The Rebel defense limited ‘Bama’s production, but Alabama stopped the Rebel offense.  This year, we do not believe The Crimson Tide can stop the Ole Miss attack, because there are too many weapons.  Ole Miss will not put up 42 points like Johnny Football and his machine did two weeks ago, but then again, the Rebels will hold Alabama well below 49.

We may be totally off base here, but we see this one that will not be decided until the waning minutes of the game.  Ole Miss has a shot at the upset that will put them back on the national title contention map.  Check below to see how the PiRate Ratings call this game.  Our ratings do not always reflect how we feel about a game, since the ratings are chiefly mechanical and not influenced by our personal beliefs.

Washington St. vs. Stanford (game to be played in Seattle)

Stanford looked like a Rose Bowl team for two quarters, a Holiday Bowl team for one quarter, and Cal for one quarter last week against Arizona St.,  The Cardinal have yet to play 60 minutes of quality football.  Can they play 30 minutes of quality football, 15 minutes of okay football, and 15 minutes of mediocre football and pull out a Pac-12 win this week against an up and coming Cougar team?

This game will be played in Seattle, not Pullman, so Washington St. will not enjoy its usual home field advantage.  Still, the much-improved Cougars will play tough for four quarters.  This one could get interesting if WSU can keep it close in the first half.  The Pac-12 North rates a little ahead of the SEC West this week, so this game should definitely be on your watch list.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

These former Southwest Conference rivals square off in an important game in Fayetteville, and while it may not have division title implications, it is a key game for both teams.  How will the Aggies stop the Wisconsin-style ground game that Bret Bielema has brought to the SEC?  If Johnny Manziel doesn’t have the football, he cannot do his magic.  Had Arkansas beaten Rutgers last week, this game would have meant a lot more, but it still means a lot in the SEC.  An Arkansas victory gives the Razorbacks a 90-95% probability of getting bowl eligible this year.  An A&M victory keeps the Aggies in contention for a Sugar Bowl or other BCS Bowl bid.

Georgia vs. LSU

This one is our top game of the week.  The winner stays in contention for a National Championship.  The loser might be looking at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl for its ceiling.

The two quarterbacks in this game are as talented as the lower-tiered NFL starters.  Georgia’s Aaron Murray may be the better college QB, but LSU’s Zach Mettenberger may eventually be the better NFL QB.  New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has been an outstanding teacher, and the LSU passing game looks like the equal of its SEC brethren.  Add one of the top rushing attacks, and you have an offense that will light up the scoreboard.

Georgia is very similar to the Tigers, except the Bulldogs throw the ball a little better and are not as strong running the ball.

Both teams have room to improve on the defensive side, and that is what makes this game so interesting.  Which defense will step up and come up with enough big plays to hold the other team to about 30 points?  That team will be the winner.

Washington vs. Arizona

One of these teams will be an impressive 4-0 on Sunday morning.  Seldom since the 1970’s has there been a game between two major conference teams where both foes average better than 300 rushing yards per game.  This one does.  Of course, UW also averages more than 300 passing yards per game and looks like a team capable of beating Stanford and becoming the key competition to Oregon in the Pac-12 North.

Arizona is more one-dimensional in its zone-read offense.  The passing game will probably not beat a quality opponent if the running game is slowed.

What makes us think UW has the potential to compete with Oregon and Stanford is our belief that the Huskies still have room to improve on offense from A+ to A++.  Once All-American tight end Austin Seferrian-Jenkins is fully back to form after beginning the season under suspension, then the Huskies’ offense might be as potent as the Ducks.

If Arizona pulls off the upset, then the Wildcats will soar into the top 10 in the power ratings.

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma

The Irish now must consider this like a key conference game if they are to remain in contention for a BCS Bowl invitation.  They will get that invitation at 10-2, but 9-3 could find Notre Dame looking at a minor bowl.  With Arizona St., USC, and Stanford remaining on the schedule along with tricky games against Navy and at Pittsburgh, The Fighting Irish have a tough mountain to climb to get to 10-2.  A loss here Saturday leaves them no room for error the rest of the way.

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops has moaned about not getting enough respect.  Wins over Louisiana-Monroe, West Virginia, and Tulsa are not respect-earning victories.  TCU, Texas, and Kansas St. are no longer respect-earning victories.  That leaves Oklahoma St. and this game for OU to get the esteem they believe they should have.  If the Sooners drop what to OU fans is a must-win game, then Stoops will feel his seat warming up.

Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin

The interest in this game is two-fold.  First, the winner of this game is more than likely your Leaders’ Division Champion.  With Penn St. ineligible, and the rest of the division substandard to these two rivals, the winner of this game will have to lose twice in the league to fall below the loser.

The secondary interest in this game is the Buckeye quarterback situation.  Does Coach Urban Meyer go with Heisman Trophy contender Braxton Miller, or does he stick with the rifle-armed Kenny Guiton who merely guides OSU on touchdown drives more like the Buckeyes hail from Eugene, Oregon.

He won’t ask our opinion, but if it were up to us, we would stick with the hot hand.  It is similar to when Wally Pipp was injured for the 1925 Yankees.  The backup, some kid named Gehrig, immediately proved that he was the best first baseman in the Majors.  Guiton looks like the best passer in the Big Ten and one of the top in the nation.  Putting Miller in as starter could only damage the Buckeye offense.  He will be rusty, and OSU can ill-afford to stumble for two or three series while hoping he gets untracked.  Miller can easily be inserted into the game for a series here and there after Guiton has worked his magic once again.

It is our belief that the only way Ohio St. can lose this game is if Miller starts and is off his game.  A typical showing from Guiton makes the Buckeyes too strong for any Big Ten opponent.

This Week’s PiRate Power Rankings

PiRate Regular

1

Oregon

133.9

2

Alabama

130.5

3

Stanford

124.9

4

Ole Miss

124.9

5

Oklahoma St.

122.6

6

Ohio St.

122.2

7

Texas A&M

122.1

8

Baylor

121.5

9

L S U

121.3

10

Georgia

121.2

11

Washington

120.4

12

South Carolina

119.9

13

Arizona

119.5

14

Florida St.

119.0

15

Louisville

118.3

16

U C L A

118.3

17

Florida

118.0

18

Texas

116.5

19

Clemson

116.4

20

Missouri

116.2

21

Wisconsin

116.2

22

Arizona St.

116.2

23

Notre Dame

115.7

24

Oklahoma

115.6

25

Miami

115.4

26

Georgia Tech

114.7

27

Michigan St.

114.6

28

Oregon St.

113.4

29

Northwestern

113.3

30

Michigan

113.1

31

T C U

113.1

32

U S C

112.5

33

Nebraska

112.0

34

Mississippi St.

111.1

35

Penn St.

110.6

36

Kansas St.

108.9

37

Virginia Tech

108.8

38

Texas Tech

108.6

39

B Y U

108.5

40

Vanderbilt

107.3

41

Auburn

107.1

42

North Carolina

106.7

43

Washington St.

106.2

44

Utah

105.3

45

Cincinnati

104.7

46

Tennessee

104.5

47

Syracuse

104.2

48

Minnesota

103.8

49

Utah St.

103.8

50

Central Florida

103.4

51

Iowa

103.3

52

Maryland

103.0

53

Fresno St.

103.0

54

Indiana

102.9

55

Boise St.

100.8

56

Toledo

100.6

57

Arkansas

100.2

58

Boston College

100.2

59

Pittsburgh

99.9

60

Bowling Green

99.9

61

Illinois

99.8

62

Rutgers

99.5

63

San Jose St.

99.4

64

Kentucky

99.0

65

Marshall

98.9

66

Ball St.

98.9

67

West Virginia

98.4

68

East Carolina

98.2

69

Iowa St.

98.1

70

Northern Illinois

97.8

71

Navy

97.6

72

Duke

97.1

73

North Carolina St.

97.0

74

Wake Forest

97.0

75

California

96.3

76

Rice

96.0

77

Purdue

95.7

78

Virginia

94.1

79

Louisiana–Monroe

94.1

80

San Diego St.

93.8

81

Wyoming

93.6

82

North Texas

93.6

83

Tulsa

93.6

84

Colorado St.

93.5

85

S M U

93.3

86

Houston

93.0

87

Kansas

92.9

88

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.6

89

Ohio

92.1

90

Colorado

92.0

91

Arkansas St.

91.4

92

Connecticut

90.8

93

U T S A

90.0

94

Memphis

89.9

95

Western Kentucky

89.9

96

Buffalo

89.7

97

South Florida

89.3

98

Nevada

89.1

99

U A B

87.6

100

Kent St.

87.3

101

Middle Tennessee

87.1

102

Temple

86.7

103

U N L V

85.6

104

Florida Atlantic

85.2

105

U T E P

83.9

106

Army

83.8

107

Hawaii

83.4

108

Troy

83.2

109

Louisiana Tech

83.2

110

Akron

83.1

111

South Alabama

82.9

112

Tulane

82.0

113

Texas St.

81.7

114

Central Michigan

81.6

115

Southern Miss.

81.3

116

Western Michigan

79.9

117

New Mexico

79.3

118

Miami (O)

78.9

119

Eastern Michigan

77.7

120

Air Force

75.7

121

New Mexico St.

74.0

122

Massachusetts

72.6

123

Idaho

69.1

124

Florida Int’l

66.0

125

Georgia St.

60.2

 

PiRate Mean

1

Oregon

129.8

2

Alabama

123.9

3

Florida St.

122.7

4

L S U

120.5

5

Ole Miss

120.5

6

Ohio St.

119.5

7

Georgia

118.7

8

Texas A&M

118.1

9

South Carolina

117.9

10

Arizona St.

117.3

11

Wisconsin

117.2

12

Louisville

116.9

13

Miami

116.5

14

Washington

116.1

15

Clemson

116.0

16

Stanford

116.0

17

Arizona

114.6

18

Michigan St.

114.5

19

Georgia Tech

114.3

20

Florida

114.0

21

Penn St.

113.8

22

Missouri

113.5

23

Baylor

112.9

24

Oklahoma St.

112.6

25

Notre Dame

112.4

26

U C L A

112.2

27

Oklahoma

111.4

28

Michigan

111.2

29

Northwestern

110.9

30

U S C

109.8

31

Maryland

109.5

32

Virginia Tech

109.2

33

North Carolina

109.0

34

Nebraska

109.0

35

Mississippi St.

107.8

36

T C U

107.4

37

Texas

107.0

38

Auburn

106.9

39

Texas Tech

106.8

40

Washington St.

106.7

41

B Y U

106.6

42

Indiana

106.4

43

Arkansas

106.2

44

Central Florida

105.6

45

Cincinnati

105.2

46

Utah

105.0

47

Vanderbilt

104.9

48

Minnesota

103.8

49

Illinois

103.7

50

Tennessee

103.7

51

Rutgers

103.4

52

Marshall

103.2

53

Oregon St.

102.9

54

Houston

102.7

55

North Carolina St.

102.7

56

Iowa

102.7

57

Ball St.

102.5

58

Syracuse

102.3

59

Fresno St.

101.5

60

Toledo

101.5

61

Kansas St.

101.0

62

Utah St.

100.9

63

Wake Forest

100.8

64

East Carolina

100.3

65

Rice

100.1

66

Navy

99.8

67

Bowling Green

99.7

68

Kentucky

99.6

69

Northern Illinois

99.0

70

Boston College

98.5

71

Pittsburgh

98.1

72

Virginia

97.5

73

Colorado

97.5

74

Duke

97.5

75

S M U

97.0

76

Memphis

97.0

77

Ohio

95.6

78

Boise St.

95.4

79

North Texas

95.4

80

Wyoming

95.3

81

San Jose St.

94.5

82

Louisiana–Monroe

94.2

83

Colorado St.

93.0

84

Middle Tennessee

92.9

85

Nevada

92.4

86

Purdue

92.3

87

U T S A

92.1

88

California

91.8

89

Western Kentucky

91.5

90

West Virginia

91.4

91

Tulsa

90.6

92

Army

90.6

93

Louisiana–Lafayette

90.3

94

Kent St.

90.3

95

Kansas

90.2

96

San Diego St.

90.1

97

Buffalo

90.0

98

U A B

89.7

99

U T E P

89.5

100

Texas St.

88.3

101

U N L V

88.2

102

Iowa St.

88.0

103

Akron

87.7

104

South Alabama

87.4

105

Tulane

87.4

106

Arkansas St.

86.9

107

Connecticut

86.2

108

New Mexico

85.5

109

Temple

85.1

110

Florida Atlantic

84.8

111

Louisiana Tech

84.7

112

Troy

83.9

113

Central Michigan

83.5

114

Hawaii

83.5

115

Miami (O)

82.8

116

South Florida

82.3

117

Eastern Michigan

81.9

118

Massachusetts

81.3

119

Southern Miss.

80.7

120

Western Michigan

80.7

121

Air Force

79.9

122

New Mexico St.

78.7

123

Idaho

77.4

124

Georgia St.

69.4

125

Florida Int’l

68.2

PiRate Bias

1

Oregon

135.5

2

Alabama

131.3

3

Ole Miss

125.2

4

Stanford

123.8

5

Oklahoma St.

123.4

6

Ohio St.

122.5

7

Baylor

122.5

8

L S U

122.3

9

Texas A&M

122.2

10

Washington

121.4

11

Georgia

121.4

12

Florida St.

120.9

13

Louisville

120.3

14

South Carolina

119.6

15

Arizona

118.3

16

Clemson

117.3

17

U C L A

117.2

18

Florida

116.5

19

Wisconsin

116.4

20

Arizona St.

116.0

21

Miami

115.6

22

Georgia Tech

115.6

23

Oklahoma

115.6

24

Missouri

115.5

25

Texas

115.2

26

Northwestern

113.8

27

Notre Dame

113.7

28

T C U

113.3

29

Michigan St.

112.7

30

Michigan

112.3

31

U S C

112.3

32

Mississippi St.

111.3

33

Oregon St.

111.3

34

Nebraska

110.3

35

Penn St.

110.2

36

B Y U

108.9

37

Texas Tech

108.5

38

Virginia Tech

108.2

39

Kansas St.

107.5

40

North Carolina

107.3

41

Washington St.

107.2

42

Vanderbilt

106.5

43

Auburn

106.2

44

Utah St.

105.8

45

Maryland

105.5

46

Utah

105.5

47

Cincinnati

105.1

48

Central Florida

104.3

49

Iowa

104.2

50

Fresno St.

103.7

51

Syracuse

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.3

53

Minnesota

103.2

54

Indiana

102.8

55

Boise St.

101.8

56

Toledo

101.7

57

Bowling Green

101.1

58

Marshall

101.0

59

Boston College

100.5

60

Illinois

100.4

61

Ball St.

100.2

62

Rutgers

100.0

63

East Carolina

99.5

64

San Jose St.

99.5

65

Pittsburgh

99.3

66

Arkansas

98.8

67

Northern Illinois

98.5

68

North Carolina St.

98.0

69

Navy

97.7

70

Kentucky

97.5

71

Rice

97.1

72

Wake Forest

97.1

73

West Virginia

96.5

74

Duke

96.2

75

Iowa St.

96.2

76

Wyoming

96.0

77

Houston

94.5

78

Virginia

94.4

79

California

94.3

80

San Diego St.

94.3

81

Colorado St.

94.2

82

North Texas

94.1

83

Louisiana–Monroe

93.5

84

Ohio

93.4

85

Purdue

93.0

86

S M U

92.7

87

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.7

88

Tulsa

92.6

89

Kansas

91.6

90

Connecticut

91.3

91

Memphis

90.7

92

Arkansas St.

90.7

93

U T S A

90.3

94

Western Kentucky

90.3

95

Colorado

90.1

96

Buffalo

89.8

97

Nevada

89.4

98

South Florida

88.0

99

U A B

87.8

100

Kent St.

87.6

101

Middle Tennessee

87.5

102

U N L V

86.0

103

Temple

85.4

104

Florida Atlantic

85.3

105

Army

84.9

106

U T E P

84.0

107

Troy

83.9

108

South Alabama

83.9

109

Hawaii

83.6

110

Akron

83.5

111

Louisiana Tech

82.6

112

Tulane

81.9

113

Texas St.

81.3

114

Southern Miss.

81.3

115

Western Michigan

80.9

116

Central Michigan

80.7

117

New Mexico

79.5

118

Miami (O)

77.6

119

Eastern Michigan

77.1

120

Air Force

75.5

121

New Mexico St.

73.9

122

Massachusetts

72.8

123

Idaho

68.5

124

Florida Int’l

65.6

125

Georgia St.

61.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

0-0

4-0

118.3

116.9

120.3

Cincinnati

0-0

3-1

104.7

105.2

105.1

Central Florida

0-0

3-0

103.4

105.6

104.3

Rutgers

0-0

3-1

99.5

103.4

100.0

S M U

0-0

1-2

93.3

97.0

92.7

Houston

1-0

3-0

93.0

102.7

94.5

Connecticut

0-0

0-3

90.8

86.2

91.3

Memphis

0-0

1-2

89.9

97.0

90.7

South Florida

0-0

0-3

89.3

82.3

88.0

Temple

0-1

0-3

86.7

85.1

85.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.1

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

1-0

3-0

119.0

122.7

120.9

Clemson

1-0

3-0

116.4

116.0

117.3

Syracuse

0-0

2-2

104.2

102.3

103.6

Maryland

0-0

4-0

103.0

109.5

105.5

Boston College

1-0

2-1

100.2

98.5

100.5

North Carolina St.

0-1

2-1

97.0

102.7

98.0

Wake Forest

0-1

2-2

97.0

100.8

97.1

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

0-0

3-0

115.4

116.5

115.6

Georgia Tech

2-0

3-0

114.7

114.3

115.6

Virginia Tech

0-0

3-1

108.8

109.2

108.2

North Carolina

0-1

1-2

106.7

109.0

107.3

Pittsburgh

1-1

2-1

99.9

98.1

99.3

Duke

0-2

2-2

97.1

97.5

96.2

Virginia

0-0

2-1

94.1

97.5

94.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.8

105.7

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oklahoma St.

0-0

3-0

122.6

112.6

123.4

Baylor

0-0

3-0

121.5

112.9

122.5

Texas

1-0

2-2

116.5

107.0

115.2

Oklahoma

1-0

3-0

115.6

111.4

115.6

T C U

0-1

1-2

113.1

107.4

113.3

Kansas St.

0-1

2-2

108.9

101.0

107.5

Texas Tech

1-0

4-0

108.6

106.8

108.5

West Virginia

0-1

2-2

98.4

91.4

96.5

Iowa St.

0-0

0-2

98.1

88.0

96.2

Kansas

0-0

2-1

92.9

90.2

91.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.6

102.9

109.0

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

0-0

4-0

122.2

119.5

122.5

Wisconsin

1-0

3-1

116.2

117.2

116.4

Penn St.

0-0

3-1

110.6

113.8

110.2

Indiana

0-0

2-2

102.9

106.4

102.8

Illinois

0-0

2-1

99.8

103.7

100.4

Purdue

0-1

1-3

95.7

92.3

93.0

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

0-0

3-1

114.6

114.5

112.7

Northwestern

0-0

4-0

113.3

110.9

113.8

Michigan

0-0

4-0

113.1

111.2

112.3

Nebraska

0-0

3-1

112.0

109.0

110.3

Minnesota

0-0

4-0

103.8

103.8

103.2

Iowa

0-0

3-1

103.3

102.7

104.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.0

108.8

108.5

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Marshall

0-0

2-2

98.9

103.2

101.0

East Carolina

1-0

2-1

98.2

100.3

99.5

U A B

0-0

1-2

87.6

89.7

87.8

Middle Tennessee

1-0

3-1

87.1

92.9

87.5

Florida Atlantic

0-2

1-3

85.2

84.8

85.3

Southern Miss.

0-0

0-3

81.3

80.7

81.3

Florida Int’l

0-0

0-4

66.0

68.2

65.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

0-0

1-2

96.0

100.1

97.1

North Texas

0-0

2-2

93.6

95.4

94.1

Tulsa

0-0

1-2

93.6

90.6

92.6

U T S A

1-0

2-2

90.0

92.1

90.3

U T E P

0-1

1-2

83.9

89.5

84.0

Louisiana Tech

0-1

1-3

83.2

84.7

82.6

Tulane

1-0

2-2

82.0

87.4

81.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.6

90.0

87.9

     

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

3-1

115.7

112.4

113.7

B Y U

 

1-2

108.5

106.6

108.9

Navy

 

2-0

97.6

99.8

97.7

Army

 

1-3

83.8

90.6

84.9

New Mexico St.

 

0-4

74.0

78.7

73.9

Idaho

 

0-4

69.1

77.4

68.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

91.5

94.3

91.3

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

1-0

3-1

99.9

99.7

101.1

Ohio

0-0

3-1

92.1

95.6

93.4

Buffalo

0-0

1-2

89.7

90.0

89.8

Kent St.

0-1

1-3

87.3

90.3

87.6

Akron

0-0

1-3

83.1

87.7

83.5

Miami (O)

0-0

0-3

78.9

82.8

77.6

Massachusetts

0-0

0-4

72.6

81.3

72.8

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

1-0

2-2

100.6

101.5

101.7

Ball St.

1-0

3-1

98.9

102.5

100.2

Northern Illinois

0-0

3-0

97.8

99.0

98.5

Central Michigan

0-1

1-3

81.6

83.5

80.7

Western Michigan

0-0

0-4

79.9

80.7

80.9

Eastern Michigan

0-1

1-3

77.7

81.9

77.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.7

90.5

88.1

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

1-0

2-2

103.8

100.9

105.8

Boise St.

1-1

2-2

100.8

95.4

101.8

Wyoming

1-0

3-1

93.6

95.3

96.0

Colorado St.

0-0

1-3

93.5

93.0

94.2

New Mexico

0-0

1-2

79.3

85.5

79.5

Air Force

0-3

1-3

75.7

79.9

75.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

1-0

3-0

103.0

101.5

103.7

San Jose St.

0-0

1-2

99.4

94.5

99.5

San Diego St.

0-0

0-3

93.8

90.1

94.3

Nevada

1-0

2-2

89.1

92.4

89.4

U N L V

0-0

2-2

85.6

88.2

86.0

Hawaii

0-1

0-3

83.4

83.5

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.8

91.7

92.4

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

0-0

3-0

133.9

129.8

135.5

Stanford

1-0

3-0

124.9

116.0

123.8

Washington

0-0

3-0

120.4

116.1

121.4

Oregon St.

1-0

3-1

113.4

102.9

111.3

Washington St.

1-0

3-1

106.2

106.7

107.2

California

0-0

1-2

96.3

91.8

94.3

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona

0-0

3-0

119.5

114.6

118.3

U C L A

0-0

3-0

118.3

112.2

117.2

Arizona St.

0-1

2-1

116.2

117.3

116.0

U S C

0-1

3-1

112.5

109.8

112.3

Utah

0-1

3-1

105.3

105.0

105.5

Colorado

0-0

2-0

92.0

97.5

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.2

110.0

112.7

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

1-0

2-1

121.2

118.7

121.4

South Carolina

1-1

2-1

119.9

117.9

119.6

Florida

1-0

2-1

118.0

114.0

116.5

Missouri

0-0

3-0

116.2

113.5

115.5

Vanderbilt

0-2

2-2

107.3

104.9

106.5

Tennessee

0-1

2-2

104.5

103.7

103.3

Kentucky

0-0

1-2

99.0

99.6

97.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

1-0

3-0

130.5

123.9

131.3

Ole Miss

1-0

3-0

124.9

120.5

125.2

Texas A&M

0-1

3-1

122.1

118.1

122.2

L S U

1-0

4-0

121.3

120.5

122.3

Mississippi St.

0-1

2-2

111.1

107.8

111.3

Auburn

1-1

3-1

107.1

106.9

106.2

Arkansas

0-0

3-1

100.2

106.2

98.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.5

112.6

114.1

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

0-0

2-2

94.1

94.2

93.5

Louisiana–Monroe

0-0

2-2

92.6

90.3

92.7

Arkansas St.

1-0

2-2

91.4

86.9

90.7

Western Kentucky

0-1

2-2

89.9

91.5

90.3

Troy

0-1

2-2

83.2

83.9

83.9

South Alabama

1-0

2-1

82.9

87.4

83.9

Texas St.

0-0

2-1

81.7

88.3

81.3

Georgia St.

0-0

0-4

60.2

69.4

61.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.5

86.5

84.7

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

2-1

85.9

88.3

93.0

Old Dominion

 

2-2

81.0

81.8

88.0

Appalachian St.

 

1-2

79.1

77.8

86.2

Charlotte

 

2-2

57.0

61.6

64.1

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Date:

September 26-28, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech Virginia Tech

8.9

8.1

10.4

Tulsa Iowa St.

-1.5

5.6

-0.6

B Y U Middle Tennessee

25.4

17.7

25.4

San Jose St. Utah St.

-1.4

-3.4

-3.3

Alabama Ole Miss

8.6

6.4

9.1

Arizona St. U S C

6.7

10.5

6.7

Arkansas Texas A&M

-18.9

-8.9

-20.4

Ball St. Toledo

0.8

3.5

1.0

Boise St. Southern Miss.

23.0

18.2

24.0

Boston College Florida St.

-15.8

-21.2

-17.4

Bowling Green Akron

19.3

14.5

20.1

Buffalo Connecticut

1.4

6.3

1.0

Central Florida South Carolina

-13.5

-9.3

-12.3

Clemson Wake Forest

22.4

18.2

23.2

Colorado St. U T E P

12.6

6.5

13.2

Duke Troy

16.9

16.6

15.3

Georgia L S U

2.9

1.2

2.1

Hawaii Fresno St.

-15.6

-14.0

-16.1

Idaho Temple

-14.6

-4.7

-13.9

Illinois Miami (O)

23.9

23.9

25.8

Kentucky Florida

-16.0

-11.4

-16.0

Louisiana Tech (a) Army

-0.6

-5.9

-2.3

Minnesota Iowa

3.5

4.1

2.0

Missouri Arkansas St.

27.8

29.6

27.8

Nevada Air Force

16.4

15.5

16.9

New Mexico U N L V

-3.8

-0.2

-4.0

New Mexico St. San Diego St.

-17.3

-8.9

-17.9

North Carolina East Carolina

11.5

11.7

10.8

North Carolina St. Central Michigan

18.4

22.2

20.3

Notre Dame Oklahoma

3.1

4.0

1.1

Ohio St. Wisconsin

9.0

5.3

9.1

Oregon California

40.6

41.0

44.2

Oregon St. Colorado

24.4

8.4

24.2

Pittsburgh Virginia

8.8

3.6

7.9

Purdue Northern Illinois

0.9

-3.7

-2.5

Rice Florida Atlantic

13.3

17.8

14.3

South Florida Miami (Fl)

-24.1

-32.2

-25.6

T C U S M U

21.8

12.4

22.6

Tennessee South Alabama

24.6

19.3

22.4

Texas St. Wyoming

-9.4

-4.5

-12.2

U T S A Houston

-1.0

-8.6

-2.2

UL-Monroe Tulane

13.1

5.4

13.3

Vanderbilt U A B

22.2

17.7

21.2

Washington Arizona

3.9

4.5

6.1

Washington St. (b) Stanford

-16.7

-7.3

-14.6

West Virginia Oklahoma St.

-21.2

-18.2

-23.9

Western Kentucky Navy

-5.2

-5.8

-4.9

Western Michigan Kent St.

-4.9

-7.1

-4.2

   

 

 

 

(a) Neutral Site Game at Dallas

 

 

 

(b) Game Played in Seattle

 

 

 

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Wyoming

vs.

Washington St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

(U T S A)

vs.

Toledo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Rice

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

(Arkansas St.)

vs.

East Carolina

Hawai’i

(Ohio)

vs.

North Texas

Little Caesars Pizza

Bowling Green

vs.

Illinois

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

(Oregon St.)

Military Bowl

Pittsburgh

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Nebraska

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

U S C

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

(Notre Dame)

Belk

Houston

vs.

North Carolina

Russell Athletic

Central Florida

vs.

Georgia Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Northwestern

Armed Forces

San Jose St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

North Carolina St.

vs.

Florida

Alamo

Baylor

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

Washington

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

(Ball St.)

vs.

Virginia Tech

Sun

Maryland

vs.

Arizona

Liberty

Mississippi St.

vs.

Tulsa

Chick-fil-A

Miami

vs.

South Carolina

Heart Of Dallas

Middle Tennessee

vs.

Iowa

Gator

Michigan St.

vs.

Missouri

Outback

Texas A&M

vs.

Michigan

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Georgia

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

U C L A

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

L S U

vs.

Clemson

Cotton

Ole Miss

vs.

Oklahoma

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Louisville

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Auburn

GoDaddy.com

Texas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Oregon

vs.

Alabama

Coming Up

Wednesday—New NFL PiRate Ratings and Spreads for Week 4

Thursday—PiRate Picks for College Week 5 & NFL Week 4

 

*** Thank You For Your Patronage ***

 

 

September 11, 2011

PiRate Ratings for College Football: Week 3–September 15-17, 2011

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , — piratings @ 3:24 pm

PiRate Ratings For Week 3: September 15-17, 2011

 

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

133.2

2

Oklahoma

132.8

3

TexasA&M

130.6

4

Stanford

127.7

5

L S U

127.2

6

Oregon

125.1

7

Boise St.

124.8

8

Arkansas

123.6

9

Florida St.

122.0

10

S. Carolina

120.5

11

Oklahoma St.

120.3

12

Notre Dame

120.2

13

Wisconsin

119.6

14

Florida 

118.8

15

Miss.State

117.1

16

Michigan

117.0

17

Virginia Tech

116.4

18

Arizona St.

116.1

19

Nebraska

114.8

20

Missouri

113.5

21

Southern Cal

113.3

22

Michigan St.

113.1

23

PennState

113.0

24

Miami

112.9

25

Auburn

112.5

26

Washington

111.7

27

Arizona

111.3

28

Georgia 

111.2

29

T C U

110.7

30

California

109.9

31

B Y U

109.3

32

Tennessee

109.1

33

Utah

108.8

34

Maryland

108.8

35

Clemson

108.6

36

Texas

108.3

37

Washington St.

107.8

38

Cincinnati

107.1

39

Pittsburgh

107.0

40

Illinois

106.8

41

N.C.State

106.7

42

U C L A

106.7

43

Iowa

106.7

44

Baylor

106.7

45

OhioState

106.6

46

W. Virginia

106.6

47

N. Carolina

106.2

48

TexasTech

105.7

49

Tulsa

105.0

50

Oregon St.

104.8

51

S. Florida

104.6

52

Northwestern

104.3

53

Air Force

103.6

54

Hawaii

101.8

55

Connecticut

101.4

56

WakeForest

101.3

57

IowaState

101.2

58

BostonColl.

100.9

59

Georgia Tech

100.8

60

Vanderbilt

100.7

61

Colorado

100.6

62

Nevada

99.4

63

Minnesota

99.3

64

San Diego St.

99.3

65

Navy

99.2

66

Houston

99.1

67

Ole Miss

99.1

68

Kansas St.

99.0

69

Central Fla.

99.0

70

S M U

98.8

71

Virginia

98.8

72

Kentucky

98.0

73

Utah St.

96.6

74

East Carolina

96.4

75

Duke

96.3

76

Purdue

95.9

77

Rutgers

95.0

78

Kansas

94.9

79

Fresno St.

94.9

80

Southern Miss.

94.0

81

Toledo

94.0

82

N. Illinois

93.8

83

Syracuse

93.6

84

San Jose St.

93.0

85

La.Tech

92.6

86

Miami(O)

91.9

87

Colo.State

91.6

88

Rice

90.9

89

FloridaInt’l

90.4

90

Wyoming

89.6

91

Louisville

89.3

92

Temple

89.3

93

Arkansas St.

88.8

94

W. Michigan

88.7

95

Marshall

88.5

96

U A B

86.5

97

Bowling Green

85.5

98

OhioU

85.1

99

Louisiana-Monroe

84.8

100

C. Michigan

84.1

101

Indiana

83.6

102

Idaho

83.2

103

Army

83.1

104

New Mexico

82.2

105

Troy

81.9

106

U N L V

81.0

107

N. Mexico St.

80.8

108

Ball St.

79.7

109

Tulane

78.8

110

Kent St.

78.3

111

U T E P

78.0

112

Louisiana-Laf.

77.3

113

Buffalo

76.7

114

MiddleTenn.

76.6

115

WesternKy.

76.6

116

N. Texas

69.6

117

Eastern Michigan

69.2

118

Fla.Atlantic

69.1

119

Akron

66.5

120

Memphis

64.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference—106.6 (5)

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

0-0

2-0

122.0

Maryland

1-0

1-0

108.8

Clemson

0-0

2-0

108.6

North CarolinaState

0-1

1-1

106.7

WakeForest

1-0

1-1

101.3

BostonCollege

0-0

0-2

100.9

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

2-0

116.4

Miami-FL

0-1

0-1

112.9

North Carolina

0-0

2-0

106.2

Georgia Tech

0-0

2-0

100.8

Virginia

0-0

2-0

98.8

Duke

0-0

0-2

96.3

 

 

Big East Conference—100.6 (7)

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

0-0

1-1

107.1

Pittsburgh

0-0

2-0

107.0

West Virginia

0-0

2-0

106.6

South Florida

0-0

2-0

104.6

Connecticut

0-0

1-1

101.4

Rutgers

0-0

1-1

95.0

Syracuse

0-0

2-0

93.6

Louisville

0-0

1-1

89.3

 

 

Big Ten—106.7 (4)

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

0-0

2-0

119.6

PennState

0-0

1-1

113.0

Illinois

0-0

2-0

106.8

OhioState

0-0

2-0

106.6

Purdue

0-0

1-1

95.9

Indiana

0-0

0-2

83.6

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

0-0

2-0

117.0

Nebraska

0-0

2-0

114.8

MichiganState

0-0

2-0

113.1

Iowa

0-0

1-1

106.7

Northwestern

0-0

2-0

104.3

Minnesota

0-0

0-2

99.3

 

 

Big 12—111.3 (3)

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

1-0

132.8

TexasA&M

0-0

0-0

130.6

OklahomaState

0-0

2-0

120.3

Missouri

0-0

1-1

113.5

Texas

0-0

2-0

108.3

Baylor

0-0

1-0

106.7

TexasTech

0-0

1-0

105.7

IowaState

0-0

2-0

101.2

KansasState

0-0

1-0

99.0

Kansas

0-0

2-0

94.9

 

 

Conference USA—81.7 (11)

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Florida

0-0

2-0

99.0

East Carolina

0-0

0-2

96.4

Southern Mississippi

0-1

1-1

94.0

Marshall

1-0

1-0

88.5

U A B

0-0

0-1

86.5

Memphis

0-0

0-2

64.4

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Tulsa

1-0

1-1

105.0

Houston

0-0

2-0

99.1

S M U

1-0

1-0

98.8

Rice

0-0

1-1

90.9

Tulane

0-1

1-1

78.8

U T E P

0-1

1-1

78.0

 

 

Independents—103.0 (6)

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

0-2

120.2

B Y U  

1-1

109.3

Navy  

2-0

99.2

Army  

0-2

83.1

 

 

Mid American Conference—83.3  (10)

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Miami(O)

0-0

0-1

91.9

Temple

1-0

2-0

89.3

Bowling Green

0-0

2-0

85.5

OhioU

0-0

2-0

85.1

Kent St.

0-0

0-2

78.3

Buffalo

0-0

1-1

76.7

Akron

0-1

0-2

66.5

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

0-0

1-1

94.0

Northern Illinois

0-0

1-1

93.8

Western Michigan

0-0

1-1

88.7

Central Michigan

0-0

1-1

84.1

BallState

0-0

1-1

79.7

Eastern Michigan

0-0

2-0

69.2

 

 

Mountain West Conference—97.9 (8)

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

0-0

1-0

124.8

T C U

1-0

1-1

110.7

Air Force

0-1

1-1

103.6

San DiegoState

0-0

2-0

99.3

ColoradoState

1-0

2-0

91.6

Wyoming

0-0

2-0

89.6

New Mexico

0-1

0-2

82.2

UNLV

0-0

0-2

81.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference—112.0  (2)

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

0-0

2-0

127.7

Oregon

0-0

1-1

125.1

Washington

0-0

2-0

111.7

California

0-0

2-0

109.9

WashingtonState

0-0

2-0

107.8

OregonState

0-0

0-2

104.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArizonaState

0-0

2-0

116.1

U S C

1-0

2-0

113.3

Arizona

0-0

1-1

111.3

Utah

0-1

1-1

108.8

U C L A

0-0

1-1

106.7

Colorado

0-0

0-2

100.6

 

 

Southeastern Conference—114.3  (1)

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

1-0

2-0

120.5

Florida

0-0

2-0

118.8

Georgia

0-1

0-2

111.2

Tennessee

0-0

2-0

109.1

Vanderbilt

0-0

2-0

100.7

Kentucky

0-0

2-0

98.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

2-0

133.2

L S U

0-0

2-0

127.2

Arkansas

0-0

2-0

123.6

MississippiState

0-1

1-1

117.1

Auburn

1-0

2-0

112.5

Ole Miss

0-0

1-1

99.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference—79.5  (12)

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaInternational

1-0

2-0

90.4

ArkansasState

0-0

1-1

88.8

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

1-1

84.8

Troy

0-0

0-1

81.9

U.ofLouisiana

0-0

1-1

77.3

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-2

76.6

MiddleTennessee

0-0

0-2

76.6

North Texas

0-1

0-2

69.6

FloridaAtlantic

0-0

0-2

69.1

 

 

Western Athletic Conference—92.8  (9)

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Hawaii

0-0

1-1

101.8

Nevada

0-0

0-1

99.4

UtahState

0-0

1-1

96.6

FresnoState

0-0

0-2

94.9

San JoseState

0-0

0-2

93.0

LouisianaTech

0-0

1-1

92.6

Idaho

0-0

1-1

83.2

New MexicoState

0-0

1-1

80.8

 

 

PiRate Ratings For Week 3 Games (with opening lines)

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 15  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

L s u MISSISSIPPISTATE

7.1

34-27

4   

   

 

 

 

Friday, September 16  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

BoiseState TOLEDO

27.3

48-21

20 1/2

CONNECTICUT IowaState

3.7

21-17

6 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, September 17  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MARYLAND West Virginia

4.7

28-23

-3   

Auburn CLEMSON

0.9

31-30

-3   

IOWA Pittsburgh

3.2

24-21

4   

CINCINNATI Akron

43.6

54-10

29 1/2

Wyoming BOWLING GREEN

0.1

27-27 to ot

-4 1/2

MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan

50.3

63-13

30 1/2

PennState TEMPLE

21.2

31-10

6 1/2

WESTERN MICHIGAN Central Michigan

7.6

31-23

5   

VANDERBILT Ole Miss

4.6

21-16

-2   

BOSTONCOLLEGE Duke

8.1

32-24

9   

GEORGIATECH Kansas

9.9

34-24

14   

Colorado(n) ColoradoState

9.0

28-19

10   

Wisconsin(n) Northern Illinois

25.8

47-21

14   

MINNESOTA Miami(O)

10.9

35-24

1 1/2

FLORIDA Tennessee

13.2

31-18

10   

NOTRE DAME MichiganState

10.6

31-20

3 1/2

NORTH CAROLINA Virginia

10.9

28-17

11   

U C L A Texas

1.9

21-19

-4 1/2

NEBRASKA Washington

7.1

31-24

17 1/2

TexasTech NEW MEXICO

21.0

38-17

24   

Northwestern ARMY

18.2

35-17

6 1/2

Nevada SAN JOSESTATE

3.4

31-28

7 1/2

U A B Tulane

10.7

34-23

11 1/2

SOUTH CAROLINA Navy

25.3

42-17

16 1/2

WashingtonState SAN DIEGOSTATE

5.5

30-24

-9 1/2

KENTUCKY Louisville

11.2

21-10

7 1/2

Houston LOUISIANATECH

4.0

35-31

8   

Marshall OHIOU

0.4

24-24 to ot

-3 1/2

TEXASA&M Idaho

51.9

62-10

29 1/2

BALLSTATE Buffalo

5.5

28-22

5 1/2

ArizonaState ILLINOIS

5.8

30-24

1 1/2

KANSASSTATE KentState

24.2

34-10

18 1/2

SOUTHERN CAL Syracuse

24.2

37-13

13   

Oklahoma FLORIDASTATE

6.8

38-31

4   

NEW MEXICOSTATE U t e p

5.8

27-21

-2   

MIAMI(FLA) OhioState

10.3

34-24

1   

B Y U Utah

3.0

20-17

5 1/2

OklahomaState TULSA

12.8

41-28

11   

Hawaii U N L V

17.3

38-21

17   

Stanford ARIZONA

12.9

37-24

8   

T C U Louisiana-Monroe

29.4

35-6

31   

VIRGINIATECH ArkansasState

31.1

45-14

27 1/2

Central Florida FLORIDAINT’L

5.6

23-17

5   

ALABAMA North Texas

68.1

68-0

43 1/2

ARKANSAS Troy

45.7

56-10

26 1/2

 

September 6, 2011

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 8-10, 2011

PiRate Ratings—For Games of September 8-10, 2011

 

Robert Griffin III, Robert Griffin III, Robert Griffin III—there, now we are as trendy as any other football media this week.  The Junior quarterback may save the Bears this year, but he will not save the Big 12 Conference, and he may soon take a backseat to his own program when Baylor is left to find a location to align itself.

 

It looks like Dan Beebe’s conference is going to be the odd-league out.  Can the Big 12 survive in name only?

 

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech appear to be headed west to the Pac-16, albeit a year later than most people thought.  When Texas A&M slaughtered SMU Sunday, it felt more like an SEC team beating up on a CUSA team than anything else.

 

Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri will need to find a new conference.  Missouri makes a smart choice for the SEC, but the Big Ten and Big East are there as well.

 

As for the Big Ten, has anybody else noticed something about their new logo?  It goes something like this, “B1G.”  Glance at that logo, and you can almost see this, “B16.”  Might there be a valid reason for that similarity?

 

Week two presents a few really good games, until the BCS Bowl system is destroyed and replaced with playoffs, there will be no reason for the top programs to schedule intersectional games against each other.  Thus, because it is a no-win proposition, you won’t see many teams hurrying to add Boise State to their non-conference schedule.  You won’t see Oklahoma playing Arkansas, even though fans could easily drive to the opponent’s home stadium.  You won’t see a Big Ten-SEC Challenge where the 12 Big Ten teams face the 12 SEC teams like you see in basketball.  Instead, you get a couple of good games and several duds.

 

Here is the PiRate Ratings Top 25 For Week Two of the college football season, followed by all 120 FBS teams by conference.

 

NCAA Top 25 This Week

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Oklahoma

132.8

1

0

2

Alabama

132.4

1

0

3

Texas A&M

130.6

1

0

4

L S U

127.2

1

0

5

Stanford

126.8

1

0

6

Boise St.

124.2

1

0

7

Oregon

123.1

0

1

8

Arkansas

123.0

1

0

9

Florida St.

121.8

1

0

10

Notre Dame

121.6

0

1

11

S. Carolina

121.2

1

0

12

Oklahoma St.

118.0

1

0

13

Virginia Tech

117.6

1

0

14

Miss. State

117.3

1

0

15

Arizona St.

116.9

1

0

16

Wisconsin

116.6

1

0

17

Nebraska

116.4

1

0

18

Florida 

116.1

1

0

19

Michigan

115.4

1

0

20

Southern Cal

113.6

1

0

21

Arizona

113.6

1

0

22

Penn State

113.6

1

0

23

Miami

112.9

0

1

24

Michigan St.

112.7

1

0

25

Missouri

112.7

1

0

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-0

1-0

121.8

Clemson

0-0

1-0

109.2

North Carolina State

0-0

1-0

109.1

Maryland

1-0

1-0

108.8

Boston College

0-0

0-1

106.4

Wake Forest

0-0

0-1

98.7

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

1-0

117.6

Miami-FL

0-1

0-1

112.9

North Carolina

0-0

1-0

108.2

Virginia

0-0

1-0

99.4

Georgia Tech

0-0

1-0

97.7

Duke

0-0

0-1

97.1

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

0-0

1-0

109.3

Pittsburgh

0-0

1-0

107.7

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

106.6

South Florida

0-0

1-0

104.3

Connecticut

0-0

1-0

101.8

Syracuse

0-0

1-0

94.6

Rutgers

0-0

1-0

94.0

Louisville

0-0

1-0

90.5

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

0-0

1-0

116.6

Penn State

0-0

1-0

113.6

Ohio State

0-0

1-0

108.7

Illinois

0-0

1-0

105.6

Purdue

0-0

1-0

97.3

Indiana

0-0

0-1

83.0

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

1-0

116.4

Michigan

0-0

1-0

115.4

Michigan State

0-0

1-0

112.7

Iowa

0-0

1-0

107.3

Minnesota

0-0

0-1

105.3

Northwestern

0-0

1-0

104.6

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

1-0

132.8

Texas A&M

0-0

0-0

130.6

Oklahoma State

0-0

1-0

118.0

Missouri

0-0

1-0

112.7

Texas

0-0

1-0

108.5

Baylor

0-0

1-0

106.1

Texas Tech

0-0

1-0

105.7

Iowa State

0-0

1-0

100.6

Kansas State

0-0

1-0

99.0

Kansas

0-0

1-0

95.1

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

0-0

1-0

97.0

East Carolina

0-0

0-1

95.2

Central Florida

0-0

1-0

92.5

U A B

0-0

0-0

89.1

Marshall

0-0

0-0

85.8

Memphis

0-0

0-1

71.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Tulsa

0-0

0-1

103.6

S M U

0-0

0-0

102.0

Houston

0-0

1-0

98.9

Rice

0-0

0-1

89.5

Tulane

0-0

1-0

80.2

U T E P

0-0

1-0

74.8

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

0-1

121.6

B Y U  

1-0

109.0

Navy  

1-0

97.1

Army  

0-1

81.3

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Miami (O)

0-0

0-1

91.9

Ohio U

0-0

1-0

85.4

Temple

0-0

1-0

85.1

Bowling Green

0-0

1-0

84.2

Kent St.

0-0

0-1

80.6

Buffalo

0-0

0-1

75.7

Akron

0-0

0-1

69.2

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Northern Illinois

0-0

1-0

93.6

Toledo

0-0

1-0

91.9

Western Michigan

0-0

0-1

88.5

Central Michigan

0-0

1-0

83.4

Ball State

0-0

1-0

79.9

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

69.6

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

0-0

1-0

124.2

T C U

0-0

0-1

108.0

Air Force

0-0

1-0

106.3

San Diego State

0-0

1-0

100.8

Colorado State

1-0

1-0

91.4

Wyoming

0-0

1-0

89.6

UNLV

0-0

0-1

84.8

New Mexico

0-1

0-1

82.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

0-0

1-0

126.8

Oregon

0-0

0-1

123.1

Washington

0-0

1-0

112.4

California

0-0

1-0

111.0

Oregon State

0-0

0-1

110.1

Washington State

0-0

1-0

103.0

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arizona State

0-0

1-0

116.9

U S C

0-0

1-0

113.6

Arizona

0-0

1-0

113.6

U C L A

0-0

0-1

108.7

Utah

0-0

1-0

108.4

Colorado

0-0

0-1

99.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

0-0

1-0

121.2

Florida

0-0

1-0

116.1

Georgia

0-0

0-1

110.2

Tennessee

0-0

1-0

106.9

Vanderbilt

0-0

1-0

100.2

Kentucky

0-0

1-0

98.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

1-0

132.4

L S U

0-0

1-0

127.2

Arkansas

0-0

1-0

123.0

Mississippi State

0-0

1-0

117.3

Auburn

0-0

1-0

111.8

Ole Miss

0-0

0-1

99.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida International

1-0

1-0

89.5

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-1

84.1

Arkansas State

0-0

0-1

83.5

Troy

0-0

0-1

81.9

Middle Tennessee

0-0

0-1

79.7

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-1

78.6

U.of Louisiana

0-0

0-1

73.5

North Texas

0-1

0-1

69.6

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-1

69.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

0-0

0-0

101.4

Hawaii

0-0

1-0

101.1

Utah State

0-0

0-1

95.6

LouisianaTech

0-0

0-1

93.4

Fresno State

0-0

0-1

93.3

San Jose State

0-0

0-1

90.8

Idaho

0-0

0-1

83.0

New Mexico State

0-0

0-1

74.3

 

 

Here is a look at this week’s games with the PiRate Ratings and official early Las Vegas line from Monday.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 8  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

OKLAHOMA STATE Arizona

7.9

42-34

14   

   

 

 

 

Friday, September 9  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

ARIZONA STATE Missouri

7.7

28-20

7 1/2

LOUISVILLE Florida Int’l

3.5

28-24

4 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, September 10  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

WISCONSIN Oregon State

11.0

38-27

21   

Iowa IOWA STATE

4.7

24-19

7   

KENTUCKY Central Michigan

17.8

28-10

13 1/2

San Diego State ARMY

15.0

35-20

9 1/2

OHIOSTATE Toledo

19.8

37-17

18   

Mississippi State AUBURN

2.5

31-28

6 1/2

NORTH CAROLINA Rutgers

17.7

31-13

11   

KANSAS Northern Illinois

5.0

28-23

-6 1/2

S M U U t e p

30.2

49-19

18   

TENNESSEE Cincinnati

1.1

25-24

6 1/2

Tulsa TULANE

20.9

42-21

13 1/2

Virginia Tech EAST CAROLINA

19.4

44-25

19   

MINNESOTA New Mexico State

35.0

49-14

19 1/2

WASHINGTON Hawaii

15.8

42-26

4   

OREGON Nevada

26.2

45-19

26   

California COLORADO

8.8

28-19

6   

Stanford DUKE

26.2

40-14

21   

Alabama PENN STATE

14.8

27-12

10   

AIR FORCE T c u

1.8

28-26

-1 1/2

North Carolina St. WAKE FOREST

7.9

35-27

2   

Purdue RICE

4.3

28-24

2   

Southern Miss. MARSHALL

8.2

25-17

8 1/2

South Carolina GEORGIA

8.0

31-23

3   

Temple AKRON

13.4

27-14

15   

NEBRASKA Fresno State

27.1

41-14

28   

Virginia INDIANA

13.4

27-14

6 1/2

TEXAS B y u

3.5

28-24

6 1/2

FLORIDA U a b

31.5

45-13

21 1/2

SOUTH FLORIDA Ball State

27.9

38-10

21   

ARKANSAS New Mexico

44.3

58-14

37   

WASHINGTON STATE U n l v

21.7

35-13

14   

VANDERBILT Connecticut

1.4

20-19

Pk

SOUTHERN CAL Utah

9.2

30-21

9    

Boston College CENTRAL FLORIDA

10.4

27-17

-6 1/2

Notre Dame MICHIGAN

2.7

27-24

3 1/2

U C L A San Jose State

21.4

35-14

21 1/2

MICHIGAN STATE Florida Atlantic

47.3

56-9

31 1/2

ARKANSAS STATE Memphis

14.3

35-21

14 1/2

Houston NORTH TEXAS

31.8

52-20

22   

Navy WESTERN KENTUCKY

16.0

30-14

10   

Georgia Tech MIDDLE TENNESSEE

15.0

35-20

11 1/2

KENT STATE Louisiana

10.6

28-17

9 1/2

 

Coming Tomorrow—the opening NFL PiRate Ratings

January 11, 2011

PiRate Ratings College Football Top 25–Final

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , — piratings @ 7:20 am

Congratulations to the Auburn Tigers, winners of the BCS Championship Game.  It was a great contest, but the final drive was something of a letdown with the non-tackle leading to Auburn getting an easy field goal on the last play.

The PiRate Ratings have been calculated from all the meaningless bowls, and Auburn did not gain enough points to emerge the PiRate National Champion.

Our 2010-11 National Champion played and won on New Year’s Day.  The TCU Horned Frogs gained enough points to edge out Auburn for the PiRate National Champion.  Here is our final top 25 rating for the season.

NCAA Top 25 January 11, 2011
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 134.2 13 0
2 Auburn 133.8 14 0
3 Ohio State 132.6 12 1
4 Oregon 131.9 12 1
5 Stanford 131.8 12 1
6 Boise State 130.7 12 1
7 Wisconsin 130.4 11 2
8 Alabama 130.1 10 3
9 Oklahoma 129.4 12 2
10 L S U 124.1 11 2
11 Oklahoma State 124.0 11 2
12 Nevada 120.3 13 1
13 Florida State 120.2 10 4
14 Arkansas 119.7 10 3
15 Mississippi State 119.4 9 4
16 Virginia Tech 117.7 11 3
17 South Carolina 117.1 9 5
18 Nebraska 115.8 10 4
19 Texas A&M 115.6 9 4
20 S.D. State 115.1 9 4
21 Florida 113.7 8 5
22 N. C. State 113.5 9 4
23 Iowa 113.4 8 5
24 Central Fla. 113.2 11 3
25 Maryland 112.9 9 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though we rank them to two decimal points

December 6, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 132.5 12 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Auburn 131.0 13 0
5 Boise State 128.8 11 1
6 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
7 Oklahoma 127.7 11 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 124.2 11 2
12 Florida State 119.8 9 4
13 South Carolina 119.4 9 4
14 Nebraska 118.9 10 3
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 117.0 9 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Nevada 115.7 12 1
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Florida 115.3 7 5
23 Missouri 115.2 10 2
24t Arizona 115.2 7 5
24t Iowa 115.2 7 5
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-4 119.8
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 11-2 124.2
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 5-2 9-3 117.0
Pittsburgh 5-2 7-5 110.7
Connecticut 5-2 8-4 108.0
South Florida 3-4 7-5 106.9
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-5 4-8 100.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-6 4-8 89.5

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Illinois 4-4 6-6 104.4
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-3 118.9
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 11-2 127.7
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 10-3 102.9
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-6 92.7
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   7-5 108.9
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Miami (O) 7-1 9-4 90.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-3 104.1
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-11 80.4
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 9-0 12-0 132.5
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-5 7-5 115.2
Southern Cal 5-4 8-5 112.0
Arizona St. 4-5 6-6 111.0
Oregon St. 4-5 5-7 109.6
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 5-4 6-6 107.1
U C L A 2-7 4-8 101.8
Washington State 1-8 2-10 94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-4 119.4
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 13-0 131.0
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-2 6-6 87.0
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 6-2 7-5 85.8
Middle Tennessee 5-3 6-6 82.8
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
Florida Atlantic 3-5 4-8 73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 7-1 11-1 128.8
Nevada 7-1 12-1 115.9
Hawaii 7-1 10-3 108.9
Fresno State 5-3 8-4 98.2
Louisiana Tech 4-4 5-7 93.0
Idaho 3-5 6-7 88.1
Utah State 2-6 4-8 88.0
San Jose State 0-8 1-12 78.5
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Navy Army (Philadelphia) 14.4 31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Navy Army  (Philadelphia) 31-23 27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

November 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 131.9 11 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Boise State 130.6 10 1
5 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
6 Auburn 127.5 12 0
7 Oklahoma 127.1 10 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 123.1 10 2
12 South Carolina 122.9 9 3
13 Florida State 120.9 9 3
14 Nebraska 119.5 10 2
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 116.8 8 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Arizona 116.3 7 4
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Nevada 115.3 11 1
23 Florida 115.3 7 5
24 Missouri 115.2 10 2
25 Iowa 115.2 7 5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-3 120.9
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
Coastal Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 10-2 123.1
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0
 

Big East Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 4-2 8-3 116.8
Pittsburgh 4-2 6-5 108.6
Connecticut 4-2 7-4 107.6
South Florida 3-3 7-4 107.3
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-4 4-7 102.8
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-5 4-7 89.7
 

Big Ten

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1
 

Big 12

North Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-2 119.5
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
South Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 10-2 127.1
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4
 

Conference USA

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 9-3 103.2
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-5 92.4
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6
 

Independents

Team Overall Rating
Notre Dame 7-5 108.9
Navy 8-3 102.6
Army 6-5 88.2
 

Mid American Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Miami (O) 7-1 8-4 87.8
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-2 106.9
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9
 

Mountain West Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-10 82.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2
 

Pac-10 Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 8-0 11-0 131.9
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-4 7-4 116.3
Southern Cal 4-4 7-5 111.0
Oregon St. 4-4 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 3-5 5-6 109.9
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 4-4 5-6 106.9
U C L A 2-6 4-7 102.8
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4
 

Southeastern Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-3 122.9
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 12-0 127.5
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1
 

Sunbelt Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-1 6-5 88.4
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 5-2 6-5 82.8
Middle Tennessee 4-3 5-6 81.4
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Florida Atlantic 3-4 4-7 76.7
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
 

Western Athletic Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-1 10-1 130.6
Nevada 6-1 11-1 115.3
Hawaii 7-1 9-3 106.8
Fresno State 5-3 7-4 97.5
Louisiana Tech 4-3 5-6 93.6
Idaho 2-5 5-7 89.3
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-7 1-11 77.3
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9
 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARIZONA Arizona St. 8.9 31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Illinois FRESNO STATE 4.1 31-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)   (Detroit) 19.1 42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Southern Cal U C L A 6.2 34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 2.7 20-17
Oregon OREGON STATE 18.7 45-26
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 10.0 31-21
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 30.1 42-12
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 2.8 24-21
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 10.0 34-24
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.1 30-27
BOISE STATE Utah State 47.4 61-14
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 18.2 35-17
IDAHO San Jose State 14.5 38-23
HAWAII U n l v 28.3 49-21
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 4.6 35-30
Virginia Tech Florida State (Charlotte) 2.2 25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 13.8 35-21
Oklahoma Nebraska (Dallas) 7.6 21-13
 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARIZONA Arizona St. 31-21 27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Illinois FRESNO STATE 34-31 34-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)  (Detroit) 35-24 41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Southern Cal U C L A 31-21 30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 27-24 27-23
Oregon OREGON STATE 49-26 51-19
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 35-27 35-20
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 34-14 34-14
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 34-22 28-26
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-24 34-28
BOISE STATE Utah State 56-20 59-17
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 37-17 35-31
IDAHO San Jose State 42-24 45-28
HAWAII U n l v 49-20 48-14
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 38-24 34-24
Virginia Tech Florida State  (Charlotte) 26-25 27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 34-26 35-30
Oklahoma Nebraska  (Dallas) 21-16 22-20
 

Bowl Projections

Bowl

Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) B Y U 6-6 WAC (#3?) Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 Miami (O) 8-5 WAC #(1) or 2 Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 S. D. State 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Louisville 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 Notre Dame 7-5 ACC #3 N. C. State 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Boston Coll. 7-5 C-USA #6 E C U 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Penn State 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Oklahoma St. 10-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 S M U 7-6 MWC #3-5/Army Army 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 7-5 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 8-4
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 8-4 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 Miami (FL) 7-5 Pac 10 #4 [Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #2 Florida State 9-4
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 7-5
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. 11-1 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Illinois 7-5 SEC #6 Florida 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 T C U 12-0 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Stanford 11-1
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large West Va. 9-3
Sugar BCS SEC Ohio State 11-1 BCS At-Large Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 7-5 MAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Nebraska 10-3 SEC #3-6 W Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Pittsburgh 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Temple 8-4] WAC #1 Nevada 11-1
Championship Game *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

November 22, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 23-27, 2010

The Winning Streak Comes To An End

It had to happen.  We knew we could not go through the entire season with one winning week after another.  Our luck ran dry this weekend.  Our picks went 2-2-1 against the spread, which in our terms, is a losing week, since you lay 10-11 odds when picking straight sides.

 

Perhaps we should not have deviated from our sweetheart teaser picks, but we liked the five games we selected.  Let’s quickly reveal our picks so we can move on and talk college football

 

1. Tennessee -9 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

Okay, if you are one of our regular subscribers to our handicapping service, maybe you did enjoy a winning week.  For, we told you that we felt that the Vols had a 99% chance of covering at -9.  If you decided to make this your only pick, then you went 1-0.

 

Vanderbilt has run out of gas, while Tennessee is on their annual November roll.  The final score was only 24-10, and we had to sweat out a late Vandy run with backup quarterback Jared Funk.

 

2. Ohio State -3 vs. Iowa

Push

This game surprised us a bit.  We felt as if the Buckeyes were ready to pull off a two touchdown win, and when the offense struggled early, we were concerned.  Ohio State is not as strong as they were supposed to be, and they should not have gained ground on Wisconsin in the BCS standings. 

 

3. Texas A&M + 2 ½ vs. Nebraska

WON

Please don’t let Bo Pelini hear this.  We told our subscribers that we had a sneaky suspicion that Nebraska would see a lot of questionable officiating calls go against them in this game, just like it happened against Texas.  The national media has to put on a good face, but we could care less about stepping on toes of the Big 12 Conference.  We warned our fans on Thursday that we suspected this would happen.  The game was considered a tossup, so we felt A&M would win by a touchdown.  It was only by a field goal, but we won any way.

 

4. Cleveland Browns + 1 ½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lost

The Browns’ short flirtation with respectability has gone back into hibernation.  We blew this one royally, thinking the boys from Lake Erie would win by 7-10 points.

 

5. San Francisco 49ers + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Lost

Tampa Bay has proven they are playoff worthy.  San Francisco’s offensive woes continue, and yet they are still in contention in the worst division in the history of NFL football.

 

A Look At The FBS Conference Races and Bowls

There are 35 bowls this year.  Thus, 70 teams need to be bowl eligible.  With two weeks to go in the season, only 64 teams are bowl eligible.  It is a sure thing that at least one or two others will gain bowl eligibility due to the schedule.  What happens if the magic number falls short of 70?  Will the NCAA allow 5-7 teams into the bowls?  Who would want to see a 5-7 and 6-6 team face off in a loser bowl?

 

A 12-team playoff, using the top 11 bowls would leave 24 bowls for the rest of the NCAA.  This would not be a problem.  The bowl that might end up with a 5-7 team would end up with a 7-5 or 8-4 team under a 12-team playoff.

 

The PiRate Ratings have conducted simulated NCAA football playoffs the past two seasons, and we will do so again after the end of the regular season.

 

Let’s look at each conference as it stands today.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech has sewn up the Coastal Division Championship.  They will face either North Carolina State or Florida State.  If N.C. State beats Maryland, they win the division title.  If Maryland wins, Florida State goes to the ACC title game.

 

Nine teams are already bowl eligible, and the conference has eight bowl tie-ins.  Expect all nine teams to land in bowls.

 

 

Big East

No team in this league belongs in a BCS bowl game.  TCU and Boise State are 21 points better than the best team in the Big East.  The cold hard fact is that the winner of this conference will be the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl picks—the Fiesta Bowl. 

 

Pittsburgh has a one game lead over West Virginia and Connecticut.  They would lose a three-way tiebreaker if the three finished 5-2.

 

Connecticut, South Florida, and Syracuse are bowl eligible.  Louisville is one win away, while Cincinnati and Rutgers are still in contention at 4-6.  We think UL will get that sixth win this week against Rutgers, while Cincinnati falls short.  Throw in Notre Dame, which will finish no worse than 6-6, and there will be enough teams to satisfy the league’s allotment.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Three teams are in contention for the Rose Bowl with one week to go.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tied at 6-1.  If they all win this week, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings will get the Rose Bowl bid.  Wisconsin holds a marginal lead over Ohio State.  The Badgers face Northwestern, while the Buckeyes host Michigan.  It will be a close vote if both win.  Michigan State wins a tiebreaker with Wisconsin, while Wisconsin wins a tiebreaker with Ohio State.  If Ohio State and Michigan State finish tied at 7-1, the Buckeyes will be the higher ranked team in the BCS and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

Eight teams are bowl eligible, and there is a decent chance that a second team will get a BCS at-large bid.  That would make nine bowl openings for eight teams, and the need for an at-large representative for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

 

 

 

Big 12

The Big 12 is out of the national championship picture this year.  Nebraska will win the North Division with a win over Colorado or a Missouri loss to Kansas.  Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma to wrap up the South Division, but the Sooners could easily win this game.  If Texas A&M beats Texas, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, it will take five steps into the conference’s tiebreaker rules to determine the representative for the Big 12 Championship Game.  Oklahoma would hold the leg up over the other two.

 

Colorado and Texas need wins to gain bowl eligibility, but it is our opinion that both will lose their finales and miss out.  That will leave eight bowl eligible teams for eight bowls.

 

 

 

Conference USA

In the East, Central Florida is as close to in the league title game as a team can be and not already have it clinched.  UCF only needs to beat hapless Memphis to secure the division flag.  It is a certainty.

 

In the West, SMU controls its own destiny.  However, the Mustangs play at East Carolina this week.  We believe the Pirates will win.  That means Tulsa would capture the flag with a win over Southern Miss.  We will give the Golden Hurricane the edge.

 

Houston needs a win at Texas Tech to gain bowl eligibility, but the Cougars are wounded without their top two quarterbacks.  No bowl for Houston this year.

 

 

 

Independents

Navy is bowl eligible, and the Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  Army is also bowl eligible, and they will get an at-large selection somewhere.  Notre Dame is bowl eligible, and they will either receive one of the Big East bowl bids or an at-large bid.

 

 

Mid-American

As usual, there are always more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids for the MAC.  Ohio, Temple, and Miami (O) from the East and Northern Illinois and Toledo from the West are bowl eligible.  Western Michigan will become bowl eligible with a win at Bowling Green.  That will leave six teams available for three bids.  Expect five of the six to go bowling.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

TCU’s blowout win over New Mexico this week will give the Horned Frogs their second consecutive undefeated regular season finish and at-large selection to a BCS Bowl.  There is a small chance that they could play for the National Championship.  Their BCS ranking will drop by playing the 1-10 Lobos, while Boise State finished on the road against a ranked team.

 

Five teams are bowl eligible, and all five will go to bowls.  That will leave one bowl spot open for an at-large invitee—the New Mexico Bowl.

 

 

 

Pac-10

This is the messy conference.  To start out, Southern Cal is ineligible for a bowl.  Throw in the chance that Stanford will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  Now, top it off with the fact that Arizona is the only other bowl eligible team at this point.  California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, but we believe only one of these five will do it.  That means this league could fall three bids short.

 

 

 

Southeastern

“As the Cam Turns” is the top-rated soap opera in the South during November sweeps.  It just may turn south on Auburn this week.  We think Alabama is going to end the Tigers’ championship hopes this week.  We cannot see any scenario where Auburn would jump Boise State and TCU after losing this late in the season.  It is no gimme that the Tigers can beat South Carolina twice in one season.

 

LSU can grab an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl with a win at Arkansas, but we believe the Razorbacks will put an end to those aspirations.

 

Georgia and Tennessee need victories this week to gain bowl eligibility.  We think both will be victorious.  That will leave 10 bowl eligible teams for nine bowls and an at-large bid.

 

 

 

 

Sunbelt

Somebody has to win this league.  With two weeks left in the season, one for UL-Monroe, no team has earned bowl eligibility.  The schedule guarantees that at least one team will become bowl eligible, and we think at least two will pick up a sixth win.  For a change, Troy may not win the conference championship.

 

 

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has a tough finale at Nevada this week, but we do not believe the boys from Reno have a strong enough defense to slow down the Broncos.  Boise State is our top-rated team, and we feel like they would be a field goal choice over Oregon in a national title game.  A win at Nevada should allow the Broncos to jump over TCU in the BCS standings, and if Auburn loses to Alabama, it should put BSU into the number two slot.

 

Louisiana Tech and Idaho still have remote chances at bowl eligibility, but we think both will fall one game short.  With BSU getting a BCS Bowl bid, the WAC will fall one team short in its bowl obligations. 

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 22, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Boise State 134.6 10 0
2 T C U 132.9 11 0
3 Oregon 132.1 10 0
4 Stanford 129.7 10 1
5 Alabama 127.5 9 2
6 Ohio State 127.1 10 1
7 Oklahoma 127.0 9 2
8 Auburn 126.2 11 0
9 Arkansas 124.4 9 2
10 Virginia Tech 122.8 9 2
11 Wisconsin 122.7 10 1
12 South Carolina 121.1 8 3
13 Texas A&M 118.8 8 3
14 Nebraska 118.8 9 2
15 Florida State 118.2 8 3
16 L S U 118.0 10 1
17t Florida 118.0 7 4
17t Miami (Fla) 118.0 7 4
19 Iowa 117.3 7 4
20 Oklahoma State 116.4 10 1
21 Arizona 116.1 7 3
22 North Carolina 115.6 6 5
23 Georgia 115.5 5 6
24 Missouri 114.9 9 2
25 Mississippi State 114.8 7 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 8-3 118.2
Clemson 4-4 6-5 112.8
North Carolina State 5-2 8-3 111.4
Maryland 4-3 7-4 104.7
Boston College 4-4 6-5 103.9
Wake Forest 1-7 2-9 89.9
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 7-0 9-2 122.8
Miami-FL 5-3 7-4 118.0
North Carolina 3-4 6-5 115.6
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-5 108.7
Virginia 1-6 4-7 95.3
Duke 1-6 3-8 95.1

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 3-2 7-3 114.6
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-4 110.8
Connecticut 3-2 6-4 106.4
South Florida 3-3 6-4 104.5
Cincinnati 2-3 4-6 104.0
Louisville 2-4 5-6 102.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-4 101.1
Rutgers 1-4 4-6 91.1

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 6-1 10-1 127.1
Wisconsin 6-1 10-1 122.7
Iowa 4-3 7-4 117.3
Michigan State 6-1 10-1 110.2
Michigan 3-4 7-4 106.5
Penn State 4-3 7-4 105.1
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Northwestern 3-4 7-4 95.4
Minnesota 1-6 2-9 94.0
Purdue 2-5 4-7 92.5
Indiana 0-7 4-7 88.7

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 5-2 9-2 118.8
Missouri 5-2 9-2 114.9
Kansas State 3-5 6-5 100.7
Colorado 2-5 5-6 100.3
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-6 3-8 88.5
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 5-2 9-2 127.0
Texas A&M 5-2 8-3 118.8
Oklahoma State 6-1 10-1 116.4
Texas 2-5 5-6 106.0
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 6-5 104.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 6-1 8-3 104.8
Southern Mississippi 5-2 8-3 98.6
East Carolina 5-2 6-5 90.2
U A B 3-4 4-7 86.8
Marshall 3-4 4-7 83.6
Memphis 0-7 1-10 69.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 5-2 8-3 98.1
Houston 4-4 5-6 96.5
S M U 5-2 6-5 92.2
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 2-5 3-8 84.0
Tulane 2-5 4-7 74.8

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   6-5 107.0
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-2 8-3 95.2
Ohio U 6-1 8-3 91.7
Miami (O) 6-1 7-4 85.2
Kent St. 3-4 4-7 80.6
Bowling Green 1-6 2-9 77.1
Buffalo 1-6 2-9 71.5
Akron 0-7 0-11 66.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 7-0 9-2 103.9
Toledo 6-1 7-4 88.5
Western Michigan 4-3 5-6 86.7
Central Michigan 2-5 3-8 84.5
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-5 2-9 69.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 7-0 11-0 132.9
Utah 6-1 9-2 111.7
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-2 6-5 104.2
S. D. State 4-3 7-4 102.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-5 2-9 84.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-6 1-10 75.4

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-0 10-0 132.1
Stanford 7-1 10-1 129.7
Arizona 4-3 7-3 116.1
Southern Cal 4-4 7-4 112.9
Oregon St. 4-3 5-5 112.3
California 3-5 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 109.2
Washington 3-4 4-6 105.1
U C L A 2-5 4-6 103.5
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 8-3 121.1
Florida 4-4 7-4 118.0
Georgia 3-5 5-6 115.5
Kentucky 2-5 6-5 106.9
Tennessee 2-5 5-6 105.0
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-9 88.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 5-2 9-2 127.5
Auburn 7-0 11-0 126.2
Arkansas 5-2 9-2 124.4
L S U 6-1 10-1 118.0
Mississippi State 3-4 7-4 114.8
Ole Miss 1-6 4-7 100.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 5-1 5-5 88.1
Arkansas State 4-3 4-7 84.2
Troy 4-2 5-5 82.2
Middle Tennessee 3-3 4-6 79.9
North Texas 3-5 3-8 79.0
Louisiana-Monroe 4-3 5-6 78.9
Florida Atlantic 3-3 4-6 78.2
U. of Louisiana 2-5 2-9 76.8
Western Kentucky 2-5 2-9 75.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-0 10-0 134.6
Nevada 5-1 10-1 111.3
Hawaii 6-1 8-3 106.2
Fresno State 4-3 6-4 97.7
Louisiana Tech 3-3 4-6 94.0
Idaho 2-4 5-6 89.1
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-6 1-10 76.9
New Mexico State 1-6 2-9 72.5

 

 

 
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 23      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Temple MIAMI (O) 7.0 28-21
       
Thursday, November 25      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Texas A&M TEXAS 10.3 24-14
       
Friday, November 26      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Louisville RUTGERS 8.6 28-19
Western Michigan BOWLING GREEN 6.6 27-20
West Virginia PITTSBURGH 1.3 21-20
ALABAMA Auburn 3.8 31-27
Buffalo AKRON 2.6 24-21
TOLEDO Central Michigan 7.0 38-31
Northern Illinois EASTERN MICHIGAN 31.5 45-13
EAST CAROLINA S m u 1.0 35-34
Ohio U KENT STATE 8.6 30-21
ARIZONA STATE U c l a 8.7 26-17
NEBRASKA Colorado 21.5 28-6
TULSA Southern Miss. 2.5 38-35
OREGON Arizona 19.5 44-24
Boise State NEVADA 26.3 46-20
       
Saturday, November 27      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARKANSAS L s u 9.4 35-26
STANFORD Oregon State 20.4 37-17
CONNECTICUT Cincinnati 5.4 26-21
FLORIDA STATE Florida 2.7 27-24
GEORGIA Georgia Tech 9.3 33-24
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 3.7 24-20
Iowa MINNESOTA 20.3 37-17
Mississippi State OLE MISS 11.4 28-17
North Carolina DUKE 18.5 45-26
SYRACUSE Boston College 0.2 17-17 to ot
OHIO STATE Michigan 23.6 44-20
Oklahoma OKLAHOMA STATE 8.1 34-26
Michigan State PENN STATE 2.1 30-28
South Carolina CLEMSON 5.8 34-28
VANDERBILT Wake Forest 2.0 26-24
RICE U a b 0.2 34-34 to ot
Kansas State NORTH TEXAS 18.7 44-25
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 30.0 37-7
WISCONSIN Northwestern 30.3 51-21
FLORIDA INT’L Arkansas State 6.4 34-28
MIAMI (FL) South Florida 16.5 38-21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic 4.2 31-27
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 4.6 26-21
PURDUE Indiana 6.8 38-31
TENNESSEE Kentucky 1.1 35-34
TEXAS TECH Houston 10.7 45-34
TROY Western Kentucky 9.5 38-28
Central Florida MEMPHIS 33.2 40-7
MARSHALL Tulane 11.8 35-23
Missouri Kansas (Kansas City) 26.4 40-14
Hawaii NEW MEXICO STATE 30.7 45-14
UTAH B y u 10.0 34-24
T c u NEW MEXICO 55.0 55-0
SAN DIEGO STATE U n l v 20.9 42-21
Louisiana Tech SAN JOSE STATE 14.1 31-17
SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame 8.9 33-24
FRESNO STATE Idaho 11.6 38-26

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 23      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Temple MIAMI (O) 27-20 27-16
       
Thursday, November 25      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Texas A&M TEXAS 23-13 20-14
       
Friday, November 26      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Louisville RUTGERS 24-21 28-17
Western Michigan BOWLING GREEN 35-28 38-16
PITTSBURGH West Virginia 17-14 17-14
ALABAMA Auburn 31-27 31-28
Buffalo AKRON 23-20 23-20
TOLEDO Central Michigan 38-30 41-21
Northern Illinois EASTERN MICHIGAN 45-19 49-17
EAST CAROLINA S m u 36-34 34-38
Ohio U KENT STATE 35-23 33-14
ARIZONA STATE U c l a 31-20 27-20
NEBRASKA Colorado 28-9 23-17
TULSA Southern Miss. 41-37 44-34
OREGON Arizona 42-23 41-23
Boise State NEVADA 42-30 60-31
       
Saturday, November 27      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARKANSAS L s u 31-27 31-20
STANFORD Oregon State 37-20 38-19
CONNECTICUT Cincinnati 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA STATE Florida 30-27 30-27
GEORGIA Georgia Tech 31-20 28-24
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 24-20 27-17
Iowa MINNESOTA 30-13 34-10
Mississippi State OLE MISS 33-25 34-24
North Carolina DUKE 35-24 35-24
SYRACUSE Boston College 16-14 19-17
OHIO STATE Michigan 37-17 38-24
OKLAHOMA STATE Oklahoma 30-27 27-31
Michigan State PENN STATE 30-27 20-23
South Carolina CLEMSON 35-30 36-20
VANDERBILT Wake Forest 23-17 20-23
RICE U a b 35-35 to ot 38-36
Kansas State NORTH TEXAS 41-21 45-24
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 35-9 31-14
WISCONSIN Northwestern 45-24 45-24
FLORIDA INT’L Arkansas State 34-27 34-27
MIAMI (FL) South Florida 30-17 30-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic 27-26 24-23
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 35-27 35-21
PURDUE Indiana 38-31 37-28
TENNESSEE Kentucky 34-31 35-30
TEXAS TECH Houston 41-32 41-28
TROY Western Kentucky 40-28 35-31
Central Florida MEMPHIS 42-14 47-10
MARSHALL Tulane 35-28 32-31
Missouri Kansas (Kansas City) 41-17 31-13
Hawaii NEW MEXICO STATE 45-17 44-17
UTAH B y u 37-24 28-24
T c u NEW MEXICO 50-7 56-0
SAN DIEGO STATE U n l v 44-24 44-20
Louisiana Tech SAN JOSE STATE 27-16 28-16
SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame 34-27 28-25
FRESNO STATE Idaho 38-30 38-26

 

 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) [Temple 9-3] WAC (#3?) [Army 6-6]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Toledo 9-3 WAC #(1) or 2 Fresno St. 7-5
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 S M U 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 East Carolina 7-5
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Kentucky 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Boston Coll. 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports Big East #2 West Va. 8-4 ACC #3 Miami 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Georgia Tech 6-6 C-USA #6 U T E P 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Nebraska 10-3 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 Southern Miss 8-4 MWC #3-5/Army Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 8-4 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 7-5 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 N.C. State 9-4 Pac 10 #4 [Notre Dame 6-6]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Florida 7-5 C-USA #1 Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 L S U 10-2 ACC #2 Florida St. 9-3
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 8-4
Capital One Big 10 #2 Mich. St. 11-1 SEC #2 Alabama 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Penn State 7-5 SEC #6 Miss. State 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Pittsburgh 8-4
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large T C U 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Ohio State 11-1
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Ohio U 9-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Okla. St. 10-2 SEC #3-6 W Arkansas 10-2
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Louisville 6-6 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Miami (O) 7-5] WAC #1 Nevada 11-2
Nat’l Championship *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Boise State 12-0

 

All CAPS and Italics—Team has already accepted bid to this bowl

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large entries.

November 15, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 16-20, 2010

Another Great Week Versus Spread

2010 is proving to be a season to remember for picking games against the spread.  The mediocrity in the middle has made picking games much easier when using 10-point and 13-point Sweetheart Teasers.

 

As we informed our subscription customers before we sent out our picks for the week, we will be playing fewer games per week now that a winning season has been guaranteed. 

 

Our most recent picks went 4-1, bringing our total for the season to 60-24-3 for 71.4%.  We have been happy and pleased with our ability to average about 60% success over the course of time, so this is definitely an anomaly.  Let’s look at how the picks played out:

 

1. 10-point Teaser:

Boise State -24 ½ vs. Idaho, West Virginia +5 vs. Cincinnati, and Syracuse + 7 ½ vs. Rutgers

WON

 

We had Boise State picked to win by 40 points, and we were not the least bit worried about the Broncos covering at 24 and a hook.  The other two picks in the parlay let us play what we thought were solid favorites now getting points.  We figured that both Cincinnati and Rutgers would lose by more than a touchdown.

 

2. 13-point Teaser:

Northwestern +22 ½ vs. Iowa, Michigan Pk vs. Purdue, Indiana +34 ½ vs. Wisconsin, and Minnesota +33 ½ vs. Illinois

Lost

 

We really liked this Big Ten parlay.  We figured Northwestern would keep the game close against Iowa and lose by a touchdown or less, so when they upset the Hawkeyes, we were happy.  We figured that Michigan was 10-14 points better than Purdue, and even though Denard Robinson had a weak game, the Wolverines prevailed by 11.  We never figured that Indiana would lose by 63 to Wisconsin.  We had predicted the Badgers to win by three touchdowns, so this one lost it for us.  We called for Minnesota to battle Illinois to the wire and have a shot at the upset.  We were right, but it did not matter.  It may matter for Ron Zook.  Losses to Northwestern and Fresno State will send him to the unemployment line.

 

3. 13-point Teaser:

Oklahoma -2 vs. Texas Tech, Texas A&M +10 ½ vs. Baylor, Kansas +48 vs. Nebraska, and Colorado +11 vs. Iowa State

WON

 

We loved this Big 12-themed parlay.  We called for Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech by at least 20 points, and the Sooners put an exclamation point on the deLeaching of the Red Raiders.  We stated that it was our opinion that Texas A&M was still not getting enough respect and figured they would beat Baylor outright.  We believed that Nebraska would slaughter Kansas but by more like 35 and not 48 points.  When the Cornhuskers only won by 17, we were winners in this parlay.  As for Colorado, the Buffalos were two-point picks over Iowa State, and they were playing for deposed coach Dan Hawkins.  Getting 11 points was more than we could have hoped for, and CU won outright.

 

4. 10-point Teaser

Tennessee Titans & Miami Dolphins Over 33, Detroit Lions & Buffalo Bills Under 54, and Cincinnati Bengals & Indianapolis Colts Under 57

WON

 

This totals parlay of pro teams was our strategy pick of the week.  We figured that with Randy Moss added to a lineup that was already scoring close to 28 points per game, and with the Titans having problems stopping the running game, both teams would top 21 points.  Miami controlled the game after the first quarter, and more than enough points were scored.  The Lions-Bills pick was more due to climate forecast.  Heavy snow was in the forecast, and we figured the colder weather would make this a defensive struggle.  As for the Bengals-Colts game, we did not think Cincinnati could score 17 points in this game, and we did not see Indy getting to 40.  It was much closer than we thought it would be.

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals Over 31 ½, Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants Under 55 ½, and St. Louis Rams & San Francisco 49ers Over 28

WON

 

We called for the Seattle-Arizona game to be a shootout with little defense, and we were surprised with the ease in which Seattle won.  Still, this was an easy cover.  We must admit that we blew the Giants-Cowboys game.  We figured New York would win by 21 points, but we were okay because this game narrowly covered when Dallas reacted to Jason Garrett’s coaching.  We played the Rams-49ers game thinking that both teams would top 14 points and were happy to see both do exactly that.

 

Coaching Carousel

At this point in the season, we already know there are openings at Colorado and Minnesota.  It looks like there will be an openings at New Mexico and Vanderbilt, and there will be others that will become available in the next three weeks.  Here are the candidates we hear are in the mix for these jobs:

 

1. New Mexico—The Lobos were not happy with minor bowl appearances almost every season under Rocky Long.  They ended up with back-to-back double digit loss seasons with Mike Locksley.  Mike Leach has been rumored here for a month, but we believe Leach will spend one more season out of the mix before somebody is brave enough to approach him.  We believe that this job will go to a coordinator at the college level.  It is not a glamour job.  Basketball is king in Albuquerque.

 

2. Colorado—Several names have been mentioned in this search, including former coach Bill McCartney, former Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, Georgia coach Mark Richt, and Nebraska offensive coordinator Shawn Watson.  LSU coach Les Miles has been rumored by the Denver Post.  We believe that McCartney may have a legitimate chance to get back into coaching after having retired 17 years ago.  Dick Vermeil proved you can take off 17 years and come back to the game.  Bill Snyder has proved you can come back at age 70 and win.

 

3. Minnesota—San Diego State’s Brady Hoke and Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen, Miami coach Randy Shannon,  former coaches Phil Fulmer and Mark Mangino are on the radar in Minneapolis.  The Gophers are pleased with Tubby Smith on the hardwoods, and it could be that another former SEC coach joins him in the great white north.  We think Fulmer could be the leading candidate. 

 

4. Vanderbilt—It is becoming apparent that Robbie Caldwell will indeed be a one-season stopgap.  However, this school does not have much to offer a big-time coach.  Gary Barnett and Tyrone Willingham turned this job down the last time it was available.  The Commodores just don’t have what it takes to entice a big-time coach to commit coaching suicide here.  We believe that a head coach from the Football Championship Series will get this job if it becomes available.  James Madison coach Mickey Matthews is apparently on the radar.  Miami offensive coordinator Mark Whipple could emerge as a candidate in this job as well.  Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo could be a dark horse candidate, but the spread option may not be a great choice for the SEC.  SEC linebackers and defensive backs can make enough big plays to grind the option to a halt when it is the lone weapon.  That is why no teams use it today.

 

The PiRate Ratings

Once again, there is a change at the top.  Oregon lost to Cal in every regard except the final score.  Who ever heard of a false start on a placekicker?  Then, he misses a 29-yarder.  We believe Boise State would beat Cal by 21-28 points if the Broncos had played them.  So, Boise State is our new number one. 

 

Remember, our ratings look forward and not backward like the polls.  When you see a team ranked in our top 25 but with a losing record, it is because we believe that is where they belong in the mix for the next week’s games.  Georgia is 5-6, but we still have them as one of our top 25.  That is because they are only 12 points weaker than Alabama and Auburn on a neutral field.

 

Overall, except for the top five or six teams, this is the weakest college football season since 1984.  That year, Brigham Young won the national championship.  Could it be “the year” for Boise State or TCU?

 

NCAA Top 25 November 15, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Boise State 133.4 9 0
2 T C U 132.9 11 0
3 Oregon 132.1 10 0
4 Ohio State 126.8 9 1
5 Stanford 126.7 9 1
6 Alabama 126.5 8 2
7 Auburn 126.2 11 0
8 Oklahoma 125.8 8 2
9 Arkansas 125.3 8 2
10 Virginia Tech 122.4 8 2
11 Wisconsin 121.6 9 1
12 South Carolina 120.4 7 3
13 Nebraska 119.5 9 1
14 Miami (Fla) 118.9 7 3
15 L S U 118.8 9 1
16 Florida State 118.5 7 3
17 Texas A&M 118.1 7 3
18 Iowa 117.6 7 3
19 North Carolina 116.5 6 4
20 Arizona 116.1 7 3
21 Florida 116.0 6 4
22 Southern Cal 115.5 7 3
23 Georgia 115.5 5 6
24 Missouri 115.4 8 2
25 Oklahoma State 115.3 9 1
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 5-2 7-3 118.5
Clemson 3-4 5-5 112.5
North Carolina State 4-2 7-3 110.5
Boston College 3-4 5-5 104.7
Maryland 4-2 7-3 104.4
Wake Forest 1-6 2-8 90.2
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 6-0 8-2 122.4
Miami-FL 5-2 7-3 118.9
North Carolina 3-3 6-4 116.5
Georgia Tech 3-4 5-5 109.1
Duke 1-5 3-7 94.7
Virginia 1-5 4-6 94.5

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 2-2 6-3 114.0
Pittsburgh 3-1 5-4 110.4
Connecticut 2-2 5-4 105.3
South Florida 3-2 6-3 104.9
Louisville 2-3 5-5 103.3
Syracuse 4-2 7-3 102.2
Cincinnati 1-3 3-6 101.7
Rutgers 1-3 4-5 93.4

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 5-1 9-1 126.8
Wisconsin 5-1 9-1 121.6
Iowa 4-2 7-3 117.6
Michigan State 5-1 9-1 111.5
Michigan 3-3 7-3 107.6
Penn State 3-3 6-4 105.4
Illinois 3-4 5-5 104.1
Northwestern 3-3 7-3 96.9
Minnesota 1-6 2-9 94.0
Purdue 2-4 4-6 91.2
Indiana 0-6 4-6 88.4

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 5-1 9-1 119.5
Missouri 4-2 8-2 115.4
Kansas State 3-4 6-4 101.6
Colorado 1-5 4-6 99.4
Iowa State 3-4 5-6 94.4
Kansas 1-5 3-7 89.6
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 4-2 8-2 125.8
Texas A&M 4-2 7-3 118.1
Oklahoma State 5-1 9-1 115.3
Baylor 4-3 7-4 106.5
Texas 2-5 4-6 105.7
Texas Tech 3-5 5-5 103.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 5-1 7-3 102.3
Southern Mississippi 4-2 7-3 96.9
East Carolina 5-1 6-4 93.7
U A B 2-4 3-7 87.0
Marshall 3-3 4-6 84.2
Memphis 0-6 1-9 68.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 4-2 7-3 98.7
Houston 4-3 5-5 98.2
S M U 4-2 5-5 91.6
U T E P 3-4 6-5 85.4
Rice 1-5 2-8 80.5
Tulane 2-4 4-6 78.3

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   5-5 106.2
Navy   7-3 103.0
Army   6-4 89.0

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-1 8-2 96.5
Ohio U 5-1 7-3 90.4
Miami (O) 5-1 6-4 86.4
Kent St. 3-3 4-6 84.2
Bowling Green 1-5 2-8 77.7
Buffalo 1-5 2-8 73.1
Akron 0-6 0-10 65.2
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 6-0 8-2 101.6
Toledo 5-1 6-4 87.9
Central Michigan 2-5 3-8 84.5
Western Michigan 3-3 4-6 83.1
Ball State 3-4 4-7 76.2
Eastern Michigan 1-5 1-9 68.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 7-0 11-0 132.9
Utah 5-1 8-2 112.3
Air Force 4-3 7-4 106.3
B Y U 4-2 5-5 103.9
S. D. State 4-2 7-3 101.8
UNLV 2-4 2-8 85.0
Colo. State 2-5 3-8 84.6
Wyoming 0-7 2-9 84.2
New Mexico 1-5 1-9 75.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-0 10-0 132.1
Stanford 6-1 9-1 126.7
Arizona 4-3 7-3 116.1
Southern Cal 4-3 7-3 115.5
California 3-4 5-5 113.2
Oregon St. 3-3 4-5 109.7
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 109.2
U C L A 2-4 4-5 106.1
Washington 2-4 3-6 103.5
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 7-3 120.4
Florida 4-4 6-4 116.0
Georgia 3-5 5-6 115.5
Kentucky 2-5 6-5 106.9
Tennessee 1-5 4-6 105.2
Vanderbilt 1-6 2-8 88.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 5-2 8-2 126.5
Auburn 7-0 11-0 126.2
Arkansas 4-2 8-2 125.3
L S U 5-1 9-1 118.8
Mississippi State 3-3 7-3 113.9
Ole Miss 1-5 4-6 100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 4-1 4-5 86.6
Arkansas State 4-3 4-6 83.8
Troy 4-2 5-4 82.9
North Texas 3-4 3-7 80.2
Middle Tennessee 2-3 3-6 80.2
Florida Atlantic 3-3 4-5 78.5
U. of Louisiana 2-4 2-8 78.3
Louisiana-Monroe 3-3 4-6 77.7
Western Kentucky 2-4 2-8 75.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 5-0 9-0 133.4
Nevada 4-1 9-1 110.3
Hawaii 5-1 7-3 104.9
Fresno State 4-2 6-3 98.9
Louisiana Tech 3-3 4-6 94.0
Utah State 2-4 4-6 89.5
Idaho 1-4 4-6 85.8
San Jose State 0-5 1-9 78.2
New Mexico State 1-5 2-8 73.5

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 16      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
TEMPLE Ohio U 9.1 31-22
       
Wednesday, November 17      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Miami (O) AKRON 19.2 31-12
TOLEDO Bowling Green 12.7 37-24