PiRate Ratings College Football For August 28

Monday, August 23, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Date:	August 28, 2021
Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Illinois	Nebraska	-3.8	-4.0	-3.4
UCLA	Hawaii	19.7	20.4	19.9
New Mexico St.	UTEP	-4.5	-4.7	-5.3
Fresno St.	Connecticut	20.2	21.1	26.5

FBS vs. FCS

FBS	FCS	PiRate
San Jose St.	Southern Utah	23.8

It’s called Week 0. Four FBS college football games will kick off the 2021 season. Included in the quartet of games is a Big Ten conference game with an old Big Ten coach returning to a new Big Ten school to face another coach that is sitting on a very hot seat.

On the West Coast, Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins host Hawaii, and a good showing with no injuries could set the Bruins up for a potential upset of LSU next week.

If you have followed our site so far this year, you have now seen the preseason ratings and predictions for all 130 FBS teams. Here are those ratings in full.

The PiRate Ratings for August 23

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	130.2
2	Oklahoma	128.1
3	Georgia	125.2
4	Iowa St.	124.8
5	Clemson	122.2
6	Ohio St.	121.9
7	U S C	119.4
8	Florida	118.2
9	Texas A&M	118.1
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Miami (Fla.)	116.9
12	Cincinnati	116.5
13	Auburn	116.1
14	T C U	116.0
15	Wisconsin	115.9
16	Texas	115.6
17	Indiana	115.5
18	Ole Miss	113.3
19	Arizona St.	113.1
20	Oklahoma St.	113.1
21	Penn St.	113.1
22	Iowa	112.8
23	Oregon	112.5
24	West Virginia	112.3
25	L S U	112.1
26	Washington	112.1
27	Utah	111.9
28	U C L A	110.5
29	Notre Dame	110.2
30	Mississippi St.	110.1
31	Arkansas	109.5
32	BYU	109.2
33	Louisiana	109.2
34	Coastal Carolina	108.4
35	Wake Forest	107.7
36	Kentucky	107.4
37	Maryland	107.2
38	Oregon St.	106.9
39	Missouri	106.4
40	Minnesota	106.1
41	NC State	106.1
42	Northwestern	105.8
43	Colorado	105.7
44	Liberty	105.5
45	Virginia Tech	105.3
46	Boston College	105.2
47	Michigan	104.9
48	Baylor	104.5
49	Kansas St.	104.4
50	Tennessee	104.0
51	Boise St.	103.9
52	Purdue	103.7
53	Florida St.	103.5
54	Nebraska	103.2
55	Michigan St.	103.0
56	Stanford	103.0
57	UCF	102.8
58	Virginia	102.7
59	Washington St.	102.5
60	Louisville	102.1
61	Texas Tech	101.9
62	Appalachian St.	101.0
63	South Carolina	100.8
64	Houston	100.7
65	San Jose St.	100.3
66	Pittsburgh	100.2
67	San Diego St.	100.2
68	Tulsa	100.1
69	Army	100.0
70	Miami (Ohio)	99.7
71	Central Michigan	99.7
72	Tulane	99.0
73	Nevada	98.8
74	Wyoming	98.5
75	California	98.4
76	Georgia Tech	98.2
77	Buffalo	98.0
78	Ball St.	97.4
79	Toledo	96.7
80	Air Force	96.5
81	Georgia St.	96.5
82	Illinois	96.4
83	Fresno St.	95.3
84	East Carolina	95.3
85	U A B	95.2
86	SMU	95.0
87	Rutgers	95.0
88	Arizona	94.6
89	Hawaii	94.6
90	U T S A	93.9
91	Ohio	93.5
92	Marshall	93.4
93	Troy	93.4
94	Memphis	93.2
95	Syracuse	92.9
96	Kent St.	91.7
97	Georgia Southern	91.6
98	Eastern Michigan	91.4
99	South Alabama	91.2
100	Western Michigan	91.0
101	USF	90.4
102	Navy	90.3
103	Vanderbilt	90.1
104	Arkansas St.	89.9
105	Duke	89.8
106	Colorado St.	89.0
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Florida Atlantic	87.7
109	Northern Illinois	87.5
110	Rice	87.1
111	Louisiana Tech	86.5
112	Utah St.	85.8
113	New Mexico	85.7
114	Kansas	85.4
115	U N L V	84.9
116	Southern Miss.	84.4
117	Middle Tennessee	83.7
118	Western Kentucky	82.7
119	North Texas	81.7
120	Temple	81.6
121	Akron	79.8
122	Charlotte	79.5
123	Florida Int’l.	79.0
124	Connecticut	76.7
125	U T E P	76.0
126	UL-Monroe	75.6
127	UMass	73.1
128	Old Dominion	71.4
129	Bowling Green	70.8
130	New Mexico St.	69.7

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	116.3	115.3	118.0	116.5
UCF	102.5	101.2	104.8	102.8
Houston	101.1	99.5	101.6	100.7
Tulsa	100.2	100.3	99.7	100.1
Tulane	98.8	97.5	100.6	99.0
East Carolina	95.3	94.3	96.2	95.3
SMU	94.3	95.4	95.4	95.0
Memphis	92.4	92.8	94.3	93.2
USF	91.0	89.7	90.6	90.4
Navy	90.8	90.0	90.3	90.3
Temple	80.6	82.4	81.9	81.6
AAC Averages	96.7	96.2	97.6	96.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.9	121.5	124.0	122.2
Wake Forest	108.0	106.7	108.3	107.7
NC State	106.5	105.8	105.9	106.1
Boston College	104.7	105.3	105.7	105.2
Florida St.	103.4	103.6	103.5	103.5
Louisville	101.7	101.4	103.2	102.1
Syracuse	93.7	93.1	92.1	92.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.4	116.7	119.9	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	117.1	116.1	117.7	116.9
Virginia Tech	106.4	104.9	104.7	105.3
Virginia	102.1	104.1	101.8	102.7
Pittsburgh	99.8	100.9	100.1	100.2
Georgia Tech	98.0	98.3	98.3	98.2
Duke	89.7	91.2	88.5	89.8
ACC Averages	104.9	105.0	105.3	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	129.3	126.7	128.2	128.1
Iowa St.	125.3	123.5	125.6	124.8
T C U	116.6	115.1	116.3	116.0
Texas	116.7	114.5	115.6	115.6
Oklahoma St.	113.5	113.2	112.5	113.1
West Virginia	113.8	112.0	111.1	112.3
Baylor	104.9	104.8	103.8	104.5
Kansas St.	104.9	104.7	103.5	104.4
Texas Tech	102.0	102.8	100.8	101.9
Kansas	88.1	85.6	82.5	85.4
Big 12 Averages	111.5	110.3	110.0	110.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Indiana	114.9	115.0	116.4	115.5
Penn St.	111.7	112.8	114.6	113.1
Maryland	108.7	106.9	105.8	107.2
Michigan	104.3	105.1	105.3	104.9
Michigan St.	103.5	103.0	102.5	103.0
Rutgers	94.1	96.3	94.5	95.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.2	115.2	117.3	115.9
Iowa	112.3	111.6	114.5	112.8
Minnesota	104.6	106.1	107.6	106.1
Northwestern	105.8	105.8	105.8	105.8
Purdue	103.6	102.9	104.5	103.7
Nebraska	102.8	103.4	103.3	103.2
Illinois	96.0	96.4	96.9	96.4
Big Ten Averages	107.0	107.3	108.0	107.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.8	110.6	111.2	110.2
BYU	109.2	108.2	110.3	109.2
Liberty	104.3	105.6	106.5	105.5
Army	100.0	99.8	100.2	100.0
Connecticut	77.4	78.6	74.2	76.7
UMass	74.8	74.0	70.5	73.1
New Mexico St.	70.3	71.1	67.6	69.7
Indep. Averages	92.1	92.6	91.5	92.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	101.9	99.2	98.1	99.7
Buffalo	98.5	97.5	97.9	98.0
Ohio	92.2	94.4	94.0	93.5
Kent St.	91.3	93.4	90.5	91.7
Akron	81.8	79.6	78.1	79.8
Bowling Green	71.6	72.1	68.8	70.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.5	99.1	99.5	99.7
Ball St.	98.4	98.3	95.5	97.4
Toledo	97.5	96.7	95.8	96.7
Eastern Michigan	93.1	91.2	89.8	91.4
Western Michigan	91.2	91.6	90.1	91.0
Northern Illinois	89.3	87.0	86.1	87.5
MAC Averages	92.3	91.7	90.4	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.9	103.3	104.3	103.9
Wyoming	97.7	98.4	99.5	98.5
Air Force	96.4	96.3	96.9	96.5
Colorado St.	88.8	88.8	89.3	89.0
Utah St.	85.6	86.6	85.2	85.8
New Mexico	85.8	86.2	85.2	85.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	100.8	101.1	99.0	100.3
San Diego St.	100.6	99.9	100.2	100.2
Nevada	98.4	99.7	98.4	98.8
Fresno St.	93.7	95.7	96.7	95.3
Hawaii	94.8	94.1	94.7	94.6
U N L V	85.8	84.3	84.6	84.9
MWC Averages	94.4	94.5	94.5	94.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.0	112.4	114.1	112.5
Washington	110.9	112.4	112.9	112.1
Oregon St.	106.7	106.7	107.3	106.9
Stanford	102.6	103.9	102.4	103.0
Washington St.	102.3	103.2	102.1	102.5
California	95.7	100.5	99.0	98.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	118.8	118.4	120.9	119.4
Arizona St.	112.4	113.5	113.6	113.1
Utah	111.8	112.1	111.8	111.9
U C L A	110.5	110.5	110.6	110.5
Colorado	106.4	105.8	104.9	105.7
Arizona	95.2	94.5	94.0	94.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.0	107.8	107.8	107.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	124.8	124.5	126.3	125.2
Florida	117.0	119.4	118.1	118.2
Kentucky	106.7	108.8	106.8	107.4
Missouri	106.2	106.9	106.2	106.4
Tennessee	104.1	103.1	104.6	104.0
South Carolina	101.1	101.0	100.4	100.8
Vanderbilt	90.9	89.9	89.6	90.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.4	128.8	131.3	130.2
Texas A&M	117.4	118.3	118.6	118.1
Auburn	116.4	115.2	116.6	116.1
Ole Miss	113.3	113.3	113.2	113.3
L S U	111.0	112.4	112.8	112.1
Mississippi St.	110.2	110.4	109.7	110.1
Arkansas	110.1	109.9	108.5	109.5
SEC Averages	111.4	111.6	111.6	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.2	106.4	109.6	108.4
Appalachian St.	100.5	100.0	102.5	101.0
Georgia St.	97.0	96.2	96.3	96.5
Troy	93.1	93.4	93.7	93.4
Georgia Southern	91.7	92.1	91.2	91.6
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.8	107.6	110.4	109.2
South Alabama	91.6	91.5	90.6	91.2
Arkansas St.	89.8	91.0	88.8	89.9
Texas St.	89.4	86.7	87.2	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.4	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.8	94.1	94.4	94.5

Conference Ratings
1	Southeastern	111.5
2	Big 12	110.6
3	Pac-12	107.5
4	Big Ten	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Sun Belt	94.5
8	Mountain West	94.5
9	Independents	92.1
10	Mid-American	91.4
11	Conference USA	84.4

The Best of the Best and Where They Might Be Vulnerable

Every year about this time, a group of anywhere from a half dozen to 30 college basketball teams rank as possible national title contenders.  In some years, only a handful of teams have reasonable title aspirations.  In some years, there are no clear cut favorites, and many teams could become Cinderella’s with the perfect fit for the glass slipper.

There has been a bit of a paradigm shift in college basketball the last two seasons.  It wasn’t much of a change, but lowering the shot clock from 35 to 30 seconds has done a world of good for the game.  The 14% less time per possession has led to 8-12 more possessions per game for each team.  Teams that three years ago averaged 65 possessions per game are today pushing the ball to the tune of 80 possessions per game.

Contrary to what may have been predicted, offensive efficiency has not gone down.  It has gone up, because the layup and dunk off a fast break when the attacking team has a number’s advantage has led to more points per possession.  The offensive increase has once again made college basketball as exciting as it was in its hey days of the 1960’s and 1970’s.

Also contrary to belief, the increased pace has not created a new UCLA dynasty in the men’s game like U Conn has done with the women’s side.  There are more than enough quality athletes throughout the nation and the world to make 100 teams competitive enough to win an NCAA Tournament game and 25 teams strong enough to reel off six consecutive wins after March 10.

We are not saying that the following 25 teams are the best 25 in the nation.  We have taken a sampling of the top teams from power conferences, the two or three current leaders from among the leagues just shy of being a power conference, as well as a couple of teams from mid-major conferences.

Today’s first look at the contenders will concentrate on showing you how the Four Factors and some of our own PiRate Ratings criteria can isolate where a contender might be vulnerable come NCAA Tournament time.  When it comes time for the teams to have one shining moment, the game changes a little.

In the past, teams that got to the Dance by beating opponents at the foul line sometimes floundered in the tournament, because officials let the players have a little more leeway before blowing their whistles.

Additionally, some teams that went 28-4 in the regular season but did so by running opponents out of the gym or holding onto the ball in a slower-paced offense found that quality opponents like they faced in the Dance did not succumb to their methods of operation.

Likewise, some full court pressure teams that entered the Dance with large scoring margin advantages (often padded by beating poor teams by 40 points), found that quality ball-control teams did not turn the ball over and allow these teams to score in transition.  These pressing teams had little half-court offense and quickly fell to teams that turned the ball over 10 times per game.

Today, we look at 25 chosen teams to tell you where they can exploit other quality teams, and also where they are vulnerable.  As you will see in this first look, there are no teams today that are not totally vulnerable in some way.  Thus, there is no clear-cut favorite to cut down the nets in Phoenix on April 3.  In point of fact, as we see it today, there are a couple dozen quality teams capable of making the Final Four, and yet all of these teams have an Achilles’ Heel and could lose before the Sweet 16 commences.

Before we get into the meat of this report, there could be a few readers not totally familiar with the Four Factors in basketball.  It is not rocket science.  The Four Factors (applies to both offense and defense) are:

1. Field Goal Efficiency
2. Turnover Rate
3. Offensive Reboundin Rate
4. Free Throw Rate

Field Goal Efficiency: [FGM+(3ptM * 0.5)]/FGA

Where FGM is field goals made; 3ptM is three-pointers made; and FGA is field goals attempted.  If your favorite team attempted 60 shots in a game and made 28 of these shots with 8 coming as three-pointers, then their FG Efficiency is [28+(8*0.5)]/60 which equals .533 or 53.3%

The difference between the offensive FG efficiency and the defensive FG efficiency is the FG efficiency margin.  This is by far the most important contributory part to winning in basketball, which is obvious, since the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket and score points, while limiting the opponents from putting the ball in the basket.

Turnover Rate:  TOV/100 Possessions figured as:  [TOV/(FGA+(FTA*0.475)+TOV]*100 and expressed as a percentage

This is a simple metric.  All it seeks to discover is how many turnovers does a team commit for every 1oo possessions.  There is a small adjustment in what qualifies as a possession for this metric as opposed to actual possessions.  Offensive rebounds are not factored into the possession counting here, as once a team secures an offensive rebound, they have already attempted a shot without committing a turnover.  The chance for a turnover after this is limited and can skew the real rate at which a team turns the ball over or forces their opponent to turn the ball over.

If your team committed 14 turnovers in a game in which they took 60 field goal attempts and 25 free throw attempts, their turnover rate for that game was: [14/(60+(25*.475)+14]*10o which comes to: 16.3%

Offensive Rebounding Rate: [OR/(OR+ Opponents’ DR)]*100, 

Where OR is offensive rebounds and DR is defensive rebounds.

If your team had 12 offensive rebounds, and their opponent had 32 defensive rebounds, your team’s offensive rebounding rate was: [12/(12+32)] * 100 which is 27.3%

Obviously, the compliment to this is defensive rebounding rate, which is the same formula applied to the opponents’ rebounding.

Free Throw Rate: FTM/100 Possessions or (FTM/[FGA+(FTA*0.475)-OR+TOV]) *100

There is a difference of opinion on how the expert analytics gurus figure this metric.  Some simple use FTA/FGA.  Some prefer FTM/FGA.  We have heard arguments in favor of both of these metrics, but we really liked a paper written by The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective’s John Ezekowitz, who argued for the metric we chose above in his February 21, 2011, paper entitled Re-examining The Four Factors: The Case For Free Throws Made Per 100 Possessions.

Putting It All Together

The key to the four factors is finding an algorithm in which the results of each team can be turned into some form of a rating or to produce a spread for a game between teams.  What good is it to know that Team A has X, Y, Z, and W rates in the four factors, and their opponent has a little better X and Z, and weaker Y and W rates.  So, where does that get us?  Only when the Four Factors can be turned into a rating of some sort is the data useful to the fan.

The PiRates tried for a few years to come up with an accurate rating from the Four Factors.  Our original mistake was assuming the different factors would not affect the college game any different than it does the NBA, where the numbers were determined to be 40% FG efficiency, 25% turnover rate, 20% offensive rebounding rate, and 15% free throw rate.

This did not make for an accurate rating when applied to college teams and uses to compare them in a point spread sort of way.  Whereas the NBA teams basically play equal schedules in terms of strengths of opponents (once enough games had been played), this cannot be said of the college game, where one team’s schedule could be as much as 20 points per game stronger than another team’s schedule.  Also, in the NBA, every team plays 41 home games and 41 road games.  The top college teams might schedule 19 home games, 3 neutral games, and just 9 road games.

We also realized that not all turnovers are the same.  A steal is worth more than any other type of turnover, because the ball remains live, and the defense frequently finds itself with a 2 on 1 or 3 on 2 fast break opportunity following a high percentage of their steals.  In the college game, more full court pressure can lead to steals that produce a lot of easy baskets, whereas in the NBA, this is a rare occurrence.

After much trial and error, we came up with three separate algorithms that when back-tested in past seasons produced acceptable predictive results.

Now, we can take a look at these 25 teams and make some assumptions based on their four factors data to date.  We can add some PiRate Rating data (like our unique R+T formula) to polish our beliefs.

The numbers you see below are our Blue Rating Scores for each of the Four Factors plus the Strength of Schedule score, the R+T rating, and the teams rating in true road and neutral games (neutral games when a team plays in another gym in their area against an out of town team does not count–like Kansas playing a Big East team in Kansas City).

AAC

Cincinnati: FG 6.4  TO 0.8  OR 0.6  FT 0.2  SOS 56.1  R+T 18.4 Rd W-L 4-2

The Bearcats do not excel in any one factor, but they are better than average in all factors.  Their SOS is good but not great, and their R+T rating is very good.  They will benefit from having extra scoring opportunities.  Cinti will run into trouble against big muscle teams from the power conferences, and they will struggle against teams that play choking man to man defense.  However, this team has enough talent to make it to the second weekend of the Big Dance.

ACC

Virginia: FG 12.0   TO 4.7   OR 4.3   FT -1.2   SOS 59.6   R+T 16.2   Rd W-L 6-1

The Cavaliers are going to be a tough out for any opponent in the NCAA Tournament.  Their style of defense will destroy teams that cannot shoot from the perimeter, and the Cavs will also exploit teams that do not have excellent passers.  To beat UVa, you must be able to pass the ball quick enough from the strong side to the weak side and then penetrate their interior defense for either an open look inside or a pass to a wide open three-point shooter.  Virginia will not beat itself.  Wisconsin and Arizona could be trouble for the Cavs, whereas Virginia could be a tough out for a team like Florida.

North Carolina: FG 6.4  TO 3.7   OR 17.4   FT 7.7   SOS 58.9   R+T 33.6   Rd W-L 7-3

The Tar Heels have the look of a Final Four team.  However, they have some small vulnerabilities.  First, they are not the best shooting team in Chapel Hill history, in fact far from it.  They do make up for this by being the best offensive rebounding team in college basketball.  They are not that shabby in the turnover department either, and thus, they have the best R+T rating in many years.  By the time the season moves into March, UNC will either be unbeatable and peaking at the right time or a major disappointment due to fatigue and injuries.  This is one team we cannot see losing prior to the Sweet 16, as they will be a 1 or 2 seed and no 15 or 16 seed can compete with them, with only a slim chance that a 7 or 8 seed can keep a game within single digits.

The team that beats UNC will be the team that can muscle their way under the basket and make the rebounding part of the equation only a minor Tar Heel victory.  Said team will also have to force the Heels into a few more turnovers than normal and produce some quick points off those turnovers.  West Virginia and Kentucky are the teams that will give UNC fits, while a great shooting team like UCLA or Gonzaga will find that they must do more than shoot lights out to beat this team.

Florida St.: FG 11.2   TO 2.8   OR 2.5   FT 2.4   SOS 58.6   R+T 15.6   Rd W-L 4-2

The Seminoles are going to be a tough match-up for teams outside the ACC that have never played against them.  Their style of play will lead to large victories in the early rounds of the tournament, but once FSU faces stiff competition, their inconsistent style of play will hurt their chances.  There will be many teams with a resume similar to theirs from amongst the power leagues.  FSU will be more like a poor man’s Kentucky.  They might win by 20-30 in the opening game, and they might make it to the Sweet 16 by way of a double digit win in their next game, but once they get to the Sweet 16, the Seminoles should be a quick out against a quality opponent like Villanova, Kansas, or Oregon.

Louisville: FG 6.5   TO 4.8  OR 7.9   FT 1.7   SOS 62.9   R+T 20.3   Rd W-L 5-2

Don’t dismiss this edition of Cardinals.  Rick Pitino knows how to coach in March, and there is enough talent at the Yum Center to guide UL to the Final Four.  The Cards have played a tough schedule to date and pulling off numbers like their current Four Factors against the opposition they have faced is a sign of a top 10 team.  In most years, these numbers would be the best in the nation, and even in a year where there are many great teams, these numbers stick out as among the best.

To beat the Cards, it is going to take a team that can shut off their inside game and force UL to beat them from the perimeter.  Not many teams can do this, but there are some potential teams out there that can send the Cards home, such as Virginia from their own league, Oregon, and Purdue.

Notre Dame: FG 8.5   TO 4.0   OR 0.2   FT 3.8   SOS 56.3   R+T 11.2   Rd W-L 5-2

The Fighting Irish have been consistently good for several years but with also a consistent liability.  Notre Dame has not been a dominant rebounding team since Digger Phelps retired.  While, the Irish have numbers strong enough to indicate they are Sweet 16 worthy, they do not have the dominating inside game that will get them to Phoenix.  A host of quality teams are out there that can hit the glass and limit ND to one shot per possession, and the Irish are bound to face one of them if they make it to the Sweet 16.  Baylor, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Kentucky could send Mike Brey’s bunch home to Indiana.  On the other hand, Notre Dame could be a tough opponent for UCLA, Villanova, or Maryland.

Big 12

West Virginia: FG 7.2    TO 16.0   OR 5.8   FT 5.1   SOS 53.7   R+T 27.2   Rd W-L 5-2

The jury is still out on this team, even though our PiRate Blue metrics say that Coach Bob Huggins has the currently top team in the land.  Huggie Bear’s Mountaineers have to prove they can sustain these fat metric ratings against the top teams.  WVU’s SOS is rather low for a Power Conference team, and they have yet to face Kansas or any tough team on enemy hardwood.  Their toughest road game to date came against Texas Tech, and they flunked that exam.

If WVU can keep their TO rate at astronomically high numbers and also maintain their better than average rebound rate, they are capable of making it to Phoenix.  Whereas many pressing teams eventually run into a team that does not fret the pressure and actually exploits it for points, WVU is more than your typical on the line/up the line gimmick defense.  This team can win by dominating on the glass, getting the ball inside for easy baskets, hitting the three, and playing strong half-court defense.  Once again, until they play Kansas a couple times, Kansas State on the road, as well as road trips to Iowa State and Baylor, it is too early to make a logical call on this team.

Baylor: FG 11.1   TO -0.2   OR 9.5   FT 8.1   SOS 61.8   R+T 20.5   Rd W-L 6-1

 

Scott Drew has been to the Elite 8 before, and this Baylor team looks like his next Elite 8 club.  Until the Bears face a team that can force the issue and pressure the ball, they look like a favorite to advance in each round.  As West Virginia showed, Baylor is not equipped to handle crazy pressure.  Other teams that might exploit this weakness include Virginia, Butler, Kentucky, and Florida.  And, if a mid-major like UNC-Wilmington or Middle Tennessee meets the Bears in the round of 32, Baylor will have to bring their A-game to avoid a major upset loss.

Kansas: FG 11.2   TO 1.7   OR 6.2  FT 0.1   SOS 59.1   R+T 16.4   Rd W-L  4-1

The Jayhawks have been flying under the radar if that is possible, but now that KU has ascended to the top of the charts, they will be on the center stage every game they occupy the penthouse.  Bill Self always has a contender in Lawrence, so this should come as no surprise when we say that the Jayhawks have the right stuff to make it all the way to the Final Four.  They can shoot the ball with the best of them, and they can defend the ball with the best of them.  They are not world-beaters anywhere else, but their other metrics are quite strong.  And, they have produced these numbers against a very good schedule.  KU has another big bonus, something they had when they won the title back in 1988.  With a star like Frank Mason III, teams will have to concentrate and dedicate another defender to stop this star.  That might work against some teams, but KU has five or six other players that can carry the team, so it is impossible to really double up on Mason.  If you are old enough to remember 1988, this reminds us of Danny Manning.

Big East

Villanova: FG 12.1   TO 1.6   OR 4.1    FT 9.6   SOS 61.1    R+T 16.1    Rd W-L 8-1

The Wildcats have proven so far this year to be good enough to repeat as National Champions, and in point of fact, at this point in the season compared to last year, they are a better team.  The rub is that so are about 30 other dominating teams.  VU has been putting teams away by getting their regulars into foul trouble from making quick moves to the basket.  Unlike other teams with very high FT rates, they are less likely to suffer from how the game is called differently in the Big Dance, because officials will blow their whistles on drives to the basket that produce contact.

Considering ‘Nova has put up these gaudy numbers against A+ competition, and they have an 8-1 record away from Philly, they are more than capable of making it back to Phoenix.  But, as Alabama just found out in football, getting back to the title game and winning it, are in different universes.  Villanova wants no part of North Carolina in a rematch.

Creighton: FG 12.5   TO 2.7   OR -3.4   FT 2.7    SOS 58.8   R+T 7.3    Rd W-L 7-0

Every year, one or two highly-rated teams gets sent home from the Dance early by a mid-major team that can exploit the power team’s weakness.  Creighton has the resume of a power team that could be susceptible to an early round loss.  Their negative rebounding rate might be covered up by other assets during the regular season, but come tournament time, just about every opponent they might face will be able to exploit this poor metric.  If their TO rate was really good, they could overcome this liability, but this is not the case, as the Blue Jays are just average or a little below in this department as well.  Their R+T rating is too low to make it to the Elite 8, and the Sweet 16 is their ceiling.  If they make it to the Sweet 16, teams like Baylor, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Kentucky can beat them by double digits.

Butler: FG 6.5   TO 5.1   OR 0.1   FT 2.1   SOS 61.3  R+T 10.0   Rd W-L 5-3

When Butler made back-to-back appearances in the National Championship Game, their Four Factors numbers were consistently good but not outstanding in any category.  This Butler team has somewhat inconsistent numbers compared to those Bulldog teams, but at the same time, they are stronger in the turnover rates and have played a much tougher schedule to date than those teams that won five tournament games.

Butler is probably a little too inconsistent this year to win five games and make it to the championship.  They might be better equipped to beat a North Carolina or Kansas than the 2010 and 2011 teams, but this Bulldog edition could easily stub its toe right out of the gates and not get a chance to upset teams like the 2010 and 2011 teams did (Syracuse, Kansas State, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Florida).

Big Ten

The Big Ten has been able to make it to the Final Four multiple times in recent years, but no league team has cut down the nets since Michigan State in 2000 (Maryland was in the ACC when they won in 2002).  There are a couple teams this year capable of giving it a good try.

Wisconsin: FG 8.9  TO 3.9  OR 15.9   FT 2.6    SOS 52.7  R+T 28.8   Rd W-L 4-3

The Badgers have played a rather weak schedule to date, and that could send their current numbers much lower once the better Big Ten opponents have been faced away from Madison.  With Bronson Koenig, Ethan Happ, and Nigel Hayes, the Badgers have a trio of quality players good enough to carry them to the Final Four.  In past years, overall team speed was an issue with this team, but the Badgers have quickness, finesse, and power this year.  UW has been much, much better at home than away from home, and a lot of teams that go 18-0 at home and 9-6 away from home leave the Dance early.  A quality team that is headed to the Elite 8 usually wins 70% or more of its games away from home, and UW is just 4-3 at this point.  Of course, those three losses came to Creighton, North Carolina, and Purdue.  Recent road wins against Marquette and Indiana could be an indication that UW is on the verge of breaking out and becoming a serious contender.

Maryland: FG 6.1  TO 0.5   OR 3.4  FT 7.5  SOS 56.4   R+T 8.8  Rd W-L 6-0

An aside: Back in the days when only one team per conference went to the NCAA Tournament, Maryland had a team that was good enough to win the national championship but was just a couple points away from getting a chance to play in it.  The 1974 Terrapins went 23-5.  Their five losses represent the best five-loss team in history.  Loss number one came at the hands of #1 UCLA in Pauley Pavillion to open the season (Bruins had won more than 70 consecutive games), in a game in which the officiating was very generous to the Bruins and yet UM lost by just one point and had a chance to win the game at the buzzer.  Loss number two came at North Carolina State, who had won 35 of its previous 36 games (lone loss to UCLA) and who would be the eventual national champs.  This loss was a six-point loss, and the Terps led this game into the second half before a Wolf Pack rally won it for the home team.  Loss number three came on the road against #4 North Carolina, yet another contest where UM had a chance to win until late in the second half.  The Terps only home loss came against NC State, who by now would not lose again until the following season.  This loss to the Pack was another close affair with UM losing by six after leading in the second half.  You can probably guess where loss number five came.  Once again, NC State topped UM in the ACC Championship Game in what is probably the best every ACC Title game.  State won by a score of 103-100 in overtime.  Maryland’s 23 wins were mostly lopsided affairs.  Even the two other contests against North Carolina were not close, as the Terps won by 11 in College Park and by 20 in Greensboro in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

What has that got to do with this year’s Terp team?  Nothing, except this year’s UM team will be in the Big Dance even if they do not win the Big Ten Tournament or the regular season title.  However, this year’s UM team is primed to be an early round upset loser, because it is nowhere near as talented as that 1974 team that featured John Lucas, Tom McMillen, and Len Elmore.  That UM team out-shot quality opposition by 11%, out-rebounded them by 11 per game, and outscored them by 17 points per game.

Purdue: FG 10.1  TO -0.7  OR 10.5  FT 8.3   SOS 55.9  R+T 19.7   Rd W-L 5-2

We could give another history lesson on this Big Ten team.  Purdue has been to the Final Four twice before, but both times, it was with teams that played an entirely different style of basketball from this team and from all the teams during the Gene Keady era.

We have a lot of respect for Coach Keady and his successful disciples, including current Boilermaker coach Matt Painter.  However, history has not been kind to the “Keady system” in NCAA Tournament history.  Purdue never made it to the Final Four with all the highly-ranked teams of the 1980’s and 1990’s and seldom made it past the second game.  Case in point, last year, the Boilermakers left the Dance immediately, losing to Arkansas-Little Rock in their first game.

Why is it that Purdue has under-performed so consistently for so many years?  Coach Keady and his disciples strongly advocate an intelligent offensive half-court set and tough man-to-man defense to prevent good shots.  That works well in the regular season, as teams like this routinely play smart ball and beat all the teams they are supposed to beat, and even upset some better teams.  But, when you get into the second week of March, the opposition is usually as good as you at shooting and preventing good shots.  Games are more frequently decided by which team gets more opportunities to shoot.  Thus rebounding and turnover margin play significantly more important roles than they do in the regular season.  Purdue has not been a consistently tough team on the boards, and they do not pressure the passing lanes.

This year’s Boilermaker squad is one of the best rebounding teams in Mackey Arena in a long time, but once again, PU is stinking it up in the turnover rate metric.  The rebounding strength could get Painter’s squad past the first game and maybe even into the Sweet 16, but when the Boilermakers run into a team like Butler, Kentucky, or Florida, or even a Mid-major like UNC-Wilmington or Middle Tennessee, they are going to have a tough time advancing.  And, should they find West Virginia in their bracket…..

Pac-12

UCLA: FG 14.2   TO 0.3   OR -1.0   FT 3.2   SOS 53.4   R+T 10.0   Rd W-L 8-1

This might be the most exciting team to watch, but this UCLA team suffers from the same issues that Purdue suffers from as stated above.  When the Bruins are hot, they can put any team away, and their win at Kentucky showed this.  However, they will run into defenses that can slow them down when they get to March, and the Bruins do not have what it takes to get additional scoring chances through rebounding and turnover margin.  Additionally, the Bruins have played a lot of cupcakes this year, and a lot of their shooting stats have been aided by playing weak defensive teams.  Until they are ousted thought, Lonzo Ball and company promise to give the fan his or her money’s worth.

Oregon: FG 10.2   TO 3.0   OR 7.5   FT 6.5   SOS 57.1   R+T 19.5   Rd W-L 5-2

The Ducks could be a contender for the Final Four.  After a slow start, Oregon has now won 14 consecutive games and looks like the team the pundits expected they would be this season.  The Ducks have a really tough closing stretch in the regular season with seven consecutive tough games between February 4 and 25.  Included in this slate is a three-game stretch against Arizona, UCLA, and USC, with the latter two on the road.  If Oregon can come through this three-week stretch without injuries or undue fatigue, this team can repeat its performance of last year and maybe make it one round past what it did last year.  That would mean they make it to Phoenix.

Arizona: FG  8.3  TO 0.6   OR 7.3   FT 10.4   SOS 58.1   R+T 20.2   Rd W-L 5-2

At first glance, Arizona’s numbers don’t look much different than Oregon’s above.  Look a little closer.  This is a team that relies a bit too much on free throw rate and is vulnerable against a team that can pressure the ball and force turnovers.  Arizona wants no part of West Virginia, but they could fall prey to a lesser pressure team or a team that turns the ball over less than 10 times a game like Virginia.  In their loss to Gonzaga, the Wildcats turned the ball over nine times in the first half and didn’t shoot well, and Gonzaga pulled out to a double digit lead.  Arizona did get to the foul line several times, but they missed too many foul shots to get back in the game.  This is likely to happen to them in an NCAA Sweet 16 game if UA makes it that far.

SEC

Kentucky: FG  9.1  TO 6.7   OR 7.4   FT 4.7   SOS 61.1   R+T 22.3   Rd W-L 6-1

This is always a tough team to figure out.  Annually, John Calipari recruits the top talent in the nation to Lexington, and Kentucky has better talent than every team on its schedule.  However, that talent is almost always freshmen, and even five McDonald’s All-Americans as college freshmen are bound to play a bit inconsistently.  On any given night, these future NBA stars are liable to blow out an average team by 30 to 40 points.  On any given night, these future NBA stars are liable to fiddle around and allow a mediocre team to stay in contention.

In Kentucky’s favor, these freshmen will have 33 to 35 games of experience by the time the NCAA Tournament begins, and the Wildcats will have a 1 or 2 seed, able to get to the Sweet 16 just by showing up.  Once at the Sweet 16, this team will have the talent and tools to keep winning, but they will still be just raw enough to lay an egg and go home with a disappointing loss.

It will take a muscle team to beat Kentucky, one that can throw its weight around on the glass, make their fouls count more like unnecessary roughness penalties in football, and has the ability to outscore the Wildcats from behind the arc.

Florida: FG 3.1  TO 6.6  OR 1.7   FT 8.9   SOS 63.0   R+T 11.4   Rd W-L 8-3

Here is a really interesting team.  At first glance, this Florida team looks like many of the Florida teams under former coach Billy Donovan.  The Gators’ ball-hawking defense tends to lead to more scoring opportunities for the orange and blue than for their opponents.  However, the really good Gator teams under Donovan played incredible half-court defense.  This Gator team is a bit weak defending inside, and that will be their downfall in March.  The Gators are adequate but not great shooting the ball, and when they don’t force a turnover, they are not great at stopping the ball from going through the opponents’ basket.

One thing in UF’s favor is their schedule has prepared them to play top-flight teams.  Outside of the league Florida played Seton Hall, Miami, Gonzaga, Florida State, and Duke.

South Carolina: FG 7.8   TO 4.9   OR 4.6   FT -5.4   SOS 56.2   R+T 13.9   Rd W-L 4-2

You have to look at South Carolina’s statistics a bit differently than just viewing their numbers.  This is a tale of two teams.  There is the USC team that is 11-0 when its best player, Sindarius Thornwell has been healthy enough to play, and there is the USC team that is 3-3 when Thornwell has not played.

The bad news for SEC teams is that Thornwell is close to 100% well again, and the Gamecocks are 4-0 in the league because of it.  A healthy Thornwell is a threat to record a triple double or score 20 points and pull down a dozen boards, while playing exemplary defense.

If the Gamecocks stay healthy this year, they look like a near lock to make the Dance, and once they get there, we have faith in Coach Frank Martin that they will play multiple games.  USC’s defense is tournament worthy, and they have just enough offense to pull away in the second half.  Their major liability is at the foul line, where they commit more than an average number of fouls.  However, this stat suffered considerably during Thornwell’s absence.  Since his return, the Gamecocks have a much better showing.

The Rest

Gonzaga: FG 15.6  TO 1.6   OR  2.6  FT 5.6   SOS 55.9  R+T 16.9   Rd W-L 7-0

Gonzaga faces a similar task that Wichita State faced in 2014, when they went 34-0 in the regular season.  The Bulldogs are the last undefeated team standing at 17-0, and the way they dominated St. Mary’s Saturday night, many sports professionals are calling for an undefeated regular season.  They still have to go to St. Mary’s, and they have to play at BYU, so they could still lose one or two regular season games this year.

Gonzaga has been a number one seed before as well as the top-ranked team in the nation, and things did not go all that well for the Bulldogs.  In 2013, the Zags entered NCAA Tournament play with a 31-2 record.  They almost became the first number one seed to lose to a 16-seed, when they had to hold on to narrowly edge Southern University in the Round of 64.  Then, GU fell in the Round of 32 to Wichita State, and the Shockers rolled to the Final Four from there.

Might things be different this year for Mark Few’s squad?  Gonzaga looks a lot like UCLA.  They are not quite as good shooting the ball, but they are a tad better defending the ball.  They are considerably better on the boards, but by the time the Dance begins to tap, their strength of schedule will have dropped to a point where they may not be ready to face a quality team in the Sweet 16.  The Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga team that made it to the Elite 8 was more equipped for the tournament than this year’s squad, so we believe Gonzaga will fall in the Sweet 16 round.

Nevada: FG 5.4   TO -1.8   OR 3.5   FT 9.8   SOS 52.3   R+T 8.0   Rd W-L 8-3

If you consider Gonzaga not to be a mid-major, then Nevada is the best non Power Conference team in the West this year, but the Wolfpack are a paper tiger.  They do not have the numbers to be a serious contender like some former Mountain West Conference teams in the past.  Their low R+T number coming from a below average schedule strength means Nevada is likely to exit the Dance quickly and by double digits.  We wanted to include them here today so you can compare them to the two mid-majors most likely to advance to the second weekend this year.

UNC-Wilmington: FG 3.8   TO 7.1   OR 3.7   FT -2.0  SOS 51.2   R+T 12.9  Rd W-L 9-2

UNCW gave Duke a big scare last year in the Round of 64, and this year’s team is better, capable of making a run to the Sweet 16.  Coach Kevin Keatts is a Rick Pitino disciple, and we would not be shocked to see Keatts taking over a big time program sooner rather than later.  He has all the tools to be a star on the big stage, and his team plays like it deserves a shot on basketball’s Broadway.

UNCW’s biggest liability is their negative FT rate.  This has come about because the Seahawks commit a lot of fouls with their pressure defense.  We tend to believe that some of this has been because they have played a lot of games on the road, where the officials whistled them for more fouls than they would have received had they been at home.  When the NCAA Tournament begins, a lot of the plays in which they might have been whistled for a foul in the regular season will no longer draw a foul call.

UNCW is the poor man’s West Virginia, and they could easily be this year’s Stephen F. Austin.  Beware if your favorite big time program makes the Tournament and they draw this team, and your team is like Purdue, Baylor, UCLA, Arizona, or Creighton.  The Seahawk press can produce a quick burst of points and put your team behind the eight ball.

Middle Tennessee: FG 3.7  TO 5.0  OR 7.4  FT -2.5  SOS 56.3  R+T 17.5  Rd W-L 8-1

If you like UNCW’s chances, then you’ll love Middle Tennessee’s chances this year.  This is the CUSA team that upset Michigan State in last year’s tournament, and this year’s Blue Raider squad is maybe 10 points better than last year’s group.  Middle Tennessee actually played UNCW over the Thanksgiving holiday and beat the Seahawks by five.  The Blue Raiders went on the road to Ole Miss and destroyed the Rebels in the first half with a 29-point halftime lead before coasting to a 15-point win.  They repeated the performance against SEC neighbor Vanderbilt winning by 23 and never being challenged.

The Blue Raiders could have 30 wins when the NCAA Tournament begins, and it would not surprise us if they receive a seed as high as 9 or 10.  Of course, this would mean they would play a 1 or 2 seed in the Round of 32 should they win their first game.  The Blue Raiders’ fans should root for your team to draw a team like Purdue, Notre Dame, Creighton, Butler, or Maryland in the first game and not someone like West Virginia, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oregon, or Kentucky.  Of course, these teams are most likely to be encountered after the opening game, which means the Blue Raiders should be a hot pick in the Round of 64.

We did not include the 25 best teams in this presentation.  There are many other quality teams like Indiana, Duke, Miami, TCU, Xavier, Akron, Illinois State, California, Utah, USC, and New Mexico State.

We hope you enjoyed this piece and learned a little about how the Four Factors has been part of the new analytical study of basketball.

Coming Friday: We take our next stab at the Field of 68, and if we can get our gurus to send us the information in time, we will debut our annual Bracketology Guru report.  Shout out to the Gurus that have not done so–please return the email we sent you to tell us if you plan to participate this year.  If we do not have enough information to debut our guru composite, we will attempt to select 68 teams ourselves.

PiRate Ratings: College Football–September 26-28, 2013

Interesting Games For Week 5

 

Thursday Night:

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

Usually when a spread option team that relies on the veer as its primary weapon breaks in a new starting quarterback, its offense suffers and takes several games to get in synch.  Vad Lee is not your typical new starter, as he receive a lot of playing time last year in Coach Paul Johnson’s option attack.  With Lee as the chief engineer, Tech’s offensive production has looked much like that of Oklahoma in the Barry Switzer days.  The Jackets average 345 rushing yards per game at a 5.7 yard per attempt clip, and they gain an average of 10.7 yards per passing attempt.  These are numbers of an offense that can score on anybody.  Now, add to that a much improved defense that yields just 275 yards per game, and you have a key contender in the Coastal Division of the ACC.

Virginia Tech has been quite the disappointment so far, even though the Hokies are 3-1 like they were expected to be after four games.  This is not the program it was two years ago, and the Va. Tech offense is in bad need of a tune-up.  The defense is still credible, but it will need an effort much like the 2009 defense if the Hokies are to return to Blacksburg with a 4-1 record.

Saturday

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

The Crimson Tide were as flat as Western Nebraska last week, as they slept walked through the Colorado St. game.  Ole Miss had an extra week to prepare for this game after the mild upset at Texas.

Last year, Ole Miss looked like they belonged in this game, even though Alabama won 33-14.  The Rebel defense limited ‘Bama’s production, but Alabama stopped the Rebel offense.  This year, we do not believe The Crimson Tide can stop the Ole Miss attack, because there are too many weapons.  Ole Miss will not put up 42 points like Johnny Football and his machine did two weeks ago, but then again, the Rebels will hold Alabama well below 49.

We may be totally off base here, but we see this one that will not be decided until the waning minutes of the game.  Ole Miss has a shot at the upset that will put them back on the national title contention map.  Check below to see how the PiRate Ratings call this game.  Our ratings do not always reflect how we feel about a game, since the ratings are chiefly mechanical and not influenced by our personal beliefs.

Washington St. vs. Stanford (game to be played in Seattle)

Stanford looked like a Rose Bowl team for two quarters, a Holiday Bowl team for one quarter, and Cal for one quarter last week against Arizona St.,  The Cardinal have yet to play 60 minutes of quality football.  Can they play 30 minutes of quality football, 15 minutes of okay football, and 15 minutes of mediocre football and pull out a Pac-12 win this week against an up and coming Cougar team?

This game will be played in Seattle, not Pullman, so Washington St. will not enjoy its usual home field advantage.  Still, the much-improved Cougars will play tough for four quarters.  This one could get interesting if WSU can keep it close in the first half.  The Pac-12 North rates a little ahead of the SEC West this week, so this game should definitely be on your watch list.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

These former Southwest Conference rivals square off in an important game in Fayetteville, and while it may not have division title implications, it is a key game for both teams.  How will the Aggies stop the Wisconsin-style ground game that Bret Bielema has brought to the SEC?  If Johnny Manziel doesn’t have the football, he cannot do his magic.  Had Arkansas beaten Rutgers last week, this game would have meant a lot more, but it still means a lot in the SEC.  An Arkansas victory gives the Razorbacks a 90-95% probability of getting bowl eligible this year.  An A&M victory keeps the Aggies in contention for a Sugar Bowl or other BCS Bowl bid.

Georgia vs. LSU

This one is our top game of the week.  The winner stays in contention for a National Championship.  The loser might be looking at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl for its ceiling.

The two quarterbacks in this game are as talented as the lower-tiered NFL starters.  Georgia’s Aaron Murray may be the better college QB, but LSU’s Zach Mettenberger may eventually be the better NFL QB.  New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has been an outstanding teacher, and the LSU passing game looks like the equal of its SEC brethren.  Add one of the top rushing attacks, and you have an offense that will light up the scoreboard.

Georgia is very similar to the Tigers, except the Bulldogs throw the ball a little better and are not as strong running the ball.

Both teams have room to improve on the defensive side, and that is what makes this game so interesting.  Which defense will step up and come up with enough big plays to hold the other team to about 30 points?  That team will be the winner.

Washington vs. Arizona

One of these teams will be an impressive 4-0 on Sunday morning.  Seldom since the 1970’s has there been a game between two major conference teams where both foes average better than 300 rushing yards per game.  This one does.  Of course, UW also averages more than 300 passing yards per game and looks like a team capable of beating Stanford and becoming the key competition to Oregon in the Pac-12 North.

Arizona is more one-dimensional in its zone-read offense.  The passing game will probably not beat a quality opponent if the running game is slowed.

What makes us think UW has the potential to compete with Oregon and Stanford is our belief that the Huskies still have room to improve on offense from A+ to A++.  Once All-American tight end Austin Seferrian-Jenkins is fully back to form after beginning the season under suspension, then the Huskies’ offense might be as potent as the Ducks.

If Arizona pulls off the upset, then the Wildcats will soar into the top 10 in the power ratings.

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma

The Irish now must consider this like a key conference game if they are to remain in contention for a BCS Bowl invitation.  They will get that invitation at 10-2, but 9-3 could find Notre Dame looking at a minor bowl.  With Arizona St., USC, and Stanford remaining on the schedule along with tricky games against Navy and at Pittsburgh, The Fighting Irish have a tough mountain to climb to get to 10-2.  A loss here Saturday leaves them no room for error the rest of the way.

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops has moaned about not getting enough respect.  Wins over Louisiana-Monroe, West Virginia, and Tulsa are not respect-earning victories.  TCU, Texas, and Kansas St. are no longer respect-earning victories.  That leaves Oklahoma St. and this game for OU to get the esteem they believe they should have.  If the Sooners drop what to OU fans is a must-win game, then Stoops will feel his seat warming up.

Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin

The interest in this game is two-fold.  First, the winner of this game is more than likely your Leaders’ Division Champion.  With Penn St. ineligible, and the rest of the division substandard to these two rivals, the winner of this game will have to lose twice in the league to fall below the loser.

The secondary interest in this game is the Buckeye quarterback situation.  Does Coach Urban Meyer go with Heisman Trophy contender Braxton Miller, or does he stick with the rifle-armed Kenny Guiton who merely guides OSU on touchdown drives more like the Buckeyes hail from Eugene, Oregon.

He won’t ask our opinion, but if it were up to us, we would stick with the hot hand.  It is similar to when Wally Pipp was injured for the 1925 Yankees.  The backup, some kid named Gehrig, immediately proved that he was the best first baseman in the Majors.  Guiton looks like the best passer in the Big Ten and one of the top in the nation.  Putting Miller in as starter could only damage the Buckeye offense.  He will be rusty, and OSU can ill-afford to stumble for two or three series while hoping he gets untracked.  Miller can easily be inserted into the game for a series here and there after Guiton has worked his magic once again.

It is our belief that the only way Ohio St. can lose this game is if Miller starts and is off his game.  A typical showing from Guiton makes the Buckeyes too strong for any Big Ten opponent.

This Week’s PiRate Power Rankings

PiRate Regular
1	Oregon	133.9
2	Alabama	130.5
3	Stanford	124.9
4	Ole Miss	124.9
5	Oklahoma St.	122.6
6	Ohio St.	122.2
7	Texas A&M	122.1
8	Baylor	121.5
9	L S U	121.3
10	Georgia	121.2
11	Washington	120.4
12	South Carolina	119.9
13	Arizona	119.5
14	Florida St.	119.0
15	Louisville	118.3
16	U C L A	118.3
17	Florida	118.0
18	Texas	116.5
19	Clemson	116.4
20	Missouri	116.2
21	Wisconsin	116.2
22	Arizona St.	116.2
23	Notre Dame	115.7
24	Oklahoma	115.6
25	Miami	115.4
26	Georgia Tech	114.7
27	Michigan St.	114.6
28	Oregon St.	113.4
29	Northwestern	113.3
30	Michigan	113.1
31	T C U	113.1
32	U S C	112.5
33	Nebraska	112.0
34	Mississippi St.	111.1
35	Penn St.	110.6
36	Kansas St.	108.9
37	Virginia Tech	108.8
38	Texas Tech	108.6
39	B Y U	108.5
40	Vanderbilt	107.3
41	Auburn	107.1
42	North Carolina	106.7
43	Washington St.	106.2
44	Utah	105.3
45	Cincinnati	104.7
46	Tennessee	104.5
47	Syracuse	104.2
48	Minnesota	103.8
49	Utah St.	103.8
50	Central Florida	103.4
51	Iowa	103.3
52	Maryland	103.0
53	Fresno St.	103.0
54	Indiana	102.9
55	Boise St.	100.8
56	Toledo	100.6
57	Arkansas	100.2
58	Boston College	100.2
59	Pittsburgh	99.9
60	Bowling Green	99.9
61	Illinois	99.8
62	Rutgers	99.5
63	San Jose St.	99.4
64	Kentucky	99.0
65	Marshall	98.9
66	Ball St.	98.9
67	West Virginia	98.4
68	East Carolina	98.2
69	Iowa St.	98.1
70	Northern Illinois	97.8
71	Navy	97.6
72	Duke	97.1
73	North Carolina St.	97.0
74	Wake Forest	97.0
75	California	96.3
76	Rice	96.0
77	Purdue	95.7
78	Virginia	94.1
79	Louisiana–Monroe	94.1
80	San Diego St.	93.8
81	Wyoming	93.6
82	North Texas	93.6
83	Tulsa	93.6
84	Colorado St.	93.5
85	S M U	93.3
86	Houston	93.0
87	Kansas	92.9
88	Louisiana–Lafayette	92.6
89	Ohio	92.1
90	Colorado	92.0
91	Arkansas St.	91.4
92	Connecticut	90.8
93	U T S A	90.0
94	Memphis	89.9
95	Western Kentucky	89.9
96	Buffalo	89.7
97	South Florida	89.3
98	Nevada	89.1
99	U A B	87.6
100	Kent St.	87.3
101	Middle Tennessee	87.1
102	Temple	86.7
103	U N L V	85.6
104	Florida Atlantic	85.2
105	U T E P	83.9
106	Army	83.8
107	Hawaii	83.4
108	Troy	83.2
109	Louisiana Tech	83.2
110	Akron	83.1
111	South Alabama	82.9
112	Tulane	82.0
113	Texas St.	81.7
114	Central Michigan	81.6
115	Southern Miss.	81.3
116	Western Michigan	79.9
117	New Mexico	79.3
118	Miami (O)	78.9
119	Eastern Michigan	77.7
120	Air Force	75.7
121	New Mexico St.	74.0
122	Massachusetts	72.6
123	Idaho	69.1
124	Florida Int’l	66.0
125	Georgia St.	60.2

 

PiRate Mean
1	Oregon	129.8
2	Alabama	123.9
3	Florida St.	122.7
4	L S U	120.5
5	Ole Miss	120.5
6	Ohio St.	119.5
7	Georgia	118.7
8	Texas A&M	118.1
9	South Carolina	117.9
10	Arizona St.	117.3
11	Wisconsin	117.2
12	Louisville	116.9
13	Miami	116.5
14	Washington	116.1
15	Clemson	116.0
16	Stanford	116.0
17	Arizona	114.6
18	Michigan St.	114.5
19	Georgia Tech	114.3
20	Florida	114.0
21	Penn St.	113.8
22	Missouri	113.5
23	Baylor	112.9
24	Oklahoma St.	112.6
25	Notre Dame	112.4
26	U C L A	112.2
27	Oklahoma	111.4
28	Michigan	111.2
29	Northwestern	110.9
30	U S C	109.8
31	Maryland	109.5
32	Virginia Tech	109.2
33	North Carolina	109.0
34	Nebraska	109.0
35	Mississippi St.	107.8
36	T C U	107.4
37	Texas	107.0
38	Auburn	106.9
39	Texas Tech	106.8
40	Washington St.	106.7
41	B Y U	106.6
42	Indiana	106.4
43	Arkansas	106.2
44	Central Florida	105.6
45	Cincinnati	105.2
46	Utah	105.0
47	Vanderbilt	104.9
48	Minnesota	103.8
49	Illinois	103.7
50	Tennessee	103.7
51	Rutgers	103.4
52	Marshall	103.2
53	Oregon St.	102.9
54	Houston	102.7
55	North Carolina St.	102.7
56	Iowa	102.7
57	Ball St.	102.5
58	Syracuse	102.3
59	Fresno St.	101.5
60	Toledo	101.5
61	Kansas St.	101.0
62	Utah St.	100.9
63	Wake Forest	100.8
64	East Carolina	100.3
65	Rice	100.1
66	Navy	99.8
67	Bowling Green	99.7
68	Kentucky	99.6
69	Northern Illinois	99.0
70	Boston College	98.5
71	Pittsburgh	98.1
72	Virginia	97.5
73	Colorado	97.5
74	Duke	97.5
75	S M U	97.0
76	Memphis	97.0
77	Ohio	95.6
78	Boise St.	95.4
79	North Texas	95.4
80	Wyoming	95.3
81	San Jose St.	94.5
82	Louisiana–Monroe	94.2
83	Colorado St.	93.0
84	Middle Tennessee	92.9
85	Nevada	92.4
86	Purdue	92.3
87	U T S A	92.1
88	California	91.8
89	Western Kentucky	91.5
90	West Virginia	91.4
91	Tulsa	90.6
92	Army	90.6
93	Louisiana–Lafayette	90.3
94	Kent St.	90.3
95	Kansas	90.2
96	San Diego St.	90.1
97	Buffalo	90.0
98	U A B	89.7
99	U T E P	89.5
100	Texas St.	88.3
101	U N L V	88.2
102	Iowa St.	88.0
103	Akron	87.7
104	South Alabama	87.4
105	Tulane	87.4
106	Arkansas St.	86.9
107	Connecticut	86.2
108	New Mexico	85.5
109	Temple	85.1
110	Florida Atlantic	84.8
111	Louisiana Tech	84.7
112	Troy	83.9
113	Central Michigan	83.5
114	Hawaii	83.5
115	Miami (O)	82.8
116	South Florida	82.3
117	Eastern Michigan	81.9
118	Massachusetts	81.3
119	Southern Miss.	80.7
120	Western Michigan	80.7
121	Air Force	79.9
122	New Mexico St.	78.7
123	Idaho	77.4
124	Georgia St.	69.4
125	Florida Int’l	68.2
PiRate Bias
1	Oregon	135.5
2	Alabama	131.3
3	Ole Miss	125.2
4	Stanford	123.8
5	Oklahoma St.	123.4
6	Ohio St.	122.5
7	Baylor	122.5
8	L S U	122.3
9	Texas A&M	122.2
10	Washington	121.4
11	Georgia	121.4
12	Florida St.	120.9
13	Louisville	120.3
14	South Carolina	119.6
15	Arizona	118.3
16	Clemson	117.3
17	U C L A	117.2
18	Florida	116.5
19	Wisconsin	116.4
20	Arizona St.	116.0
21	Miami	115.6
22	Georgia Tech	115.6
23	Oklahoma	115.6
24	Missouri	115.5
25	Texas	115.2
26	Northwestern	113.8
27	Notre Dame	113.7
28	T C U	113.3
29	Michigan St.	112.7
30	Michigan	112.3
31	U S C	112.3
32	Mississippi St.	111.3
33	Oregon St.	111.3
34	Nebraska	110.3
35	Penn St.	110.2
36	B Y U	108.9
37	Texas Tech	108.5
38	Virginia Tech	108.2
39	Kansas St.	107.5
40	North Carolina	107.3
41	Washington St.	107.2
42	Vanderbilt	106.5
43	Auburn	106.2
44	Utah St.	105.8
45	Maryland	105.5
46	Utah	105.5
47	Cincinnati	105.1
48	Central Florida	104.3
49	Iowa	104.2
50	Fresno St.	103.7
51	Syracuse	103.6
52	Tennessee	103.3
53	Minnesota	103.2
54	Indiana	102.8
55	Boise St.	101.8
56	Toledo	101.7
57	Bowling Green	101.1
58	Marshall	101.0
59	Boston College	100.5
60	Illinois	100.4
61	Ball St.	100.2
62	Rutgers	100.0
63	East Carolina	99.5
64	San Jose St.	99.5
65	Pittsburgh	99.3
66	Arkansas	98.8
67	Northern Illinois	98.5
68	North Carolina St.	98.0
69	Navy	97.7
70	Kentucky	97.5
71	Rice	97.1
72	Wake Forest	97.1
73	West Virginia	96.5
74	Duke	96.2
75	Iowa St.	96.2
76	Wyoming	96.0
77	Houston	94.5
78	Virginia	94.4
79	California	94.3
80	San Diego St.	94.3
81	Colorado St.	94.2
82	North Texas	94.1
83	Louisiana–Monroe	93.5
84	Ohio	93.4
85	Purdue	93.0
86	S M U	92.7
87	Louisiana–Lafayette	92.7
88	Tulsa	92.6
89	Kansas	91.6
90	Connecticut	91.3
91	Memphis	90.7
92	Arkansas St.	90.7
93	U T S A	90.3
94	Western Kentucky	90.3
95	Colorado	90.1
96	Buffalo	89.8
97	Nevada	89.4
98	South Florida	88.0
99	U A B	87.8
100	Kent St.	87.6
101	Middle Tennessee	87.5
102	U N L V	86.0
103	Temple	85.4
104	Florida Atlantic	85.3
105	Army	84.9
106	U T E P	84.0
107	Troy	83.9
108	South Alabama	83.9
109	Hawaii	83.6
110	Akron	83.5
111	Louisiana Tech	82.6
112	Tulane	81.9
113	Texas St.	81.3
114	Southern Miss.	81.3
115	Western Michigan	80.9
116	Central Michigan	80.7
117	New Mexico	79.5
118	Miami (O)	77.6
119	Eastern Michigan	77.1
120	Air Force	75.5
121	New Mexico St.	73.9
122	Massachusetts	72.8
123	Idaho	68.5
124	Florida Int’l	65.6
125	Georgia St.	61.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	0-0	4-0	118.3	116.9	120.3
Cincinnati	0-0	3-1	104.7	105.2	105.1
Central Florida	0-0	3-0	103.4	105.6	104.3
Rutgers	0-0	3-1	99.5	103.4	100.0
S M U	0-0	1-2	93.3	97.0	92.7
Houston	1-0	3-0	93.0	102.7	94.5
Connecticut	0-0	0-3	90.8	86.2	91.3
Memphis	0-0	1-2	89.9	97.0	90.7
South Florida	0-0	0-3	89.3	82.3	88.0
Temple	0-1	0-3	86.7	85.1	85.4
League Averages			96.9	98.1	97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida St.	1-0	3-0	119.0	122.7	120.9
Clemson	1-0	3-0	116.4	116.0	117.3
Syracuse	0-0	2-2	104.2	102.3	103.6
Maryland	0-0	4-0	103.0	109.5	105.5
Boston College	1-0	2-1	100.2	98.5	100.5
North Carolina St.	0-1	2-1	97.0	102.7	98.0
Wake Forest	0-1	2-2	97.0	100.8	97.1
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami	0-0	3-0	115.4	116.5	115.6
Georgia Tech	2-0	3-0	114.7	114.3	115.6
Virginia Tech	0-0	3-1	108.8	109.2	108.2
North Carolina	0-1	1-2	106.7	109.0	107.3
Pittsburgh	1-1	2-1	99.9	98.1	99.3
Duke	0-2	2-2	97.1	97.5	96.2
Virginia	0-0	2-1	94.1	97.5	94.4
League Averages			105.3	106.8	105.7

 

Big 12 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma St.	0-0	3-0	122.6	112.6	123.4
Baylor	0-0	3-0	121.5	112.9	122.5
Texas	1-0	2-2	116.5	107.0	115.2
Oklahoma	1-0	3-0	115.6	111.4	115.6
T C U	0-1	1-2	113.1	107.4	113.3
Kansas St.	0-1	2-2	108.9	101.0	107.5
Texas Tech	1-0	4-0	108.6	106.8	108.5
West Virginia	0-1	2-2	98.4	91.4	96.5
Iowa St.	0-0	0-2	98.1	88.0	96.2
Kansas	0-0	2-1	92.9	90.2	91.6
League Averages			109.6	102.9	109.0

 

Big Ten Conference
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean		Bias
Ohio St.	0-0		4-0		122.2		119.5		122.5
Wisconsin	1-0		3-1		116.2		117.2		116.4
Penn St.	0-0		3-1		110.6		113.8		110.2
Indiana	0-0		2-2		102.9		106.4		102.8
Illinois	0-0		2-1		99.8		103.7		100.4
Purdue	0-1		1-3		95.7		92.3		93.0
Legends Division
Team	Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean		Bias
Michigan St.	0-0		3-1		114.6		114.5		112.7
Northwestern	0-0		4-0		113.3		110.9		113.8
Michigan	0-0		4-0		113.1		111.2		112.3
Nebraska	0-0		3-1		112.0		109.0		110.3
Minnesota	0-0		4-0		103.8		103.8		103.2
Iowa	0-0		3-1		103.3		102.7		104.2
League Averages					109.0		108.8		108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team		Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean		Bias
Marshall		0-0		2-2		98.9		103.2		101.0
East Carolina		1-0		2-1		98.2		100.3		99.5
U A B		0-0		1-2		87.6		89.7		87.8
Middle Tennessee		1-0		3-1		87.1		92.9		87.5
Florida Atlantic		0-2		1-3		85.2		84.8		85.3
Southern Miss.		0-0		0-3		81.3		80.7		81.3
Florida Int’l		0-0		0-4		66.0		68.2		65.6
West Division
Team		Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean		Bias
Rice		0-0		1-2		96.0		100.1		97.1
North Texas		0-0		2-2		93.6		95.4		94.1
Tulsa		0-0		1-2		93.6		90.6		92.6
U T S A		1-0		2-2		90.0		92.1		90.3
U T E P		0-1		1-2		83.9		89.5		84.0
Louisiana Tech		0-1		1-3		83.2		84.7		82.6
Tulane		1-0		2-2		82.0		87.4		81.9
League Averages						87.6		90.0		87.9

 

Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Notre Dame		3-1	115.7	112.4	113.7
B Y U		1-2	108.5	106.6	108.9
Navy		2-0	97.6	99.8	97.7
Army		1-3	83.8	90.6	84.9
New Mexico St.		0-4	74.0	78.7	73.9
Idaho		0-4	69.1	77.4	68.5
Independent Avg’s.			91.5	94.3	91.3

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	1-0	3-1	99.9	99.7	101.1
Ohio	0-0	3-1	92.1	95.6	93.4
Buffalo	0-0	1-2	89.7	90.0	89.8
Kent St.	0-1	1-3	87.3	90.3	87.6
Akron	0-0	1-3	83.1	87.7	83.5
Miami (O)	0-0	0-3	78.9	82.8	77.6
Massachusetts	0-0	0-4	72.6	81.3	72.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	1-0	2-2	100.6	101.5	101.7
Ball St.	1-0	3-1	98.9	102.5	100.2
Northern Illinois	0-0	3-0	97.8	99.0	98.5
Central Michigan	0-1	1-3	81.6	83.5	80.7
Western Michigan	0-0	0-4	79.9	80.7	80.9
Eastern Michigan	0-1	1-3	77.7	81.9	77.1
League Averages			87.7	90.5	88.1

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah St.	1-0	2-2	103.8	100.9	105.8
Boise St.	1-1	2-2	100.8	95.4	101.8
Wyoming	1-0	3-1	93.6	95.3	96.0
Colorado St.	0-0	1-3	93.5	93.0	94.2
New Mexico	0-0	1-2	79.3	85.5	79.5
Air Force	0-3	1-3	75.7	79.9	75.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	1-0	3-0	103.0	101.5	103.7
San Jose St.	0-0	1-2	99.4	94.5	99.5
San Diego St.	0-0	0-3	93.8	90.1	94.3
Nevada	1-0	2-2	89.1	92.4	89.4
U N L V	0-0	2-2	85.6	88.2	86.0
Hawaii	0-1	0-3	83.4	83.5	83.6
League Averages			91.8	91.7	92.4
Pacific 12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	0-0	3-0	133.9	129.8	135.5
Stanford	1-0	3-0	124.9	116.0	123.8
Washington	0-0	3-0	120.4	116.1	121.4
Oregon St.	1-0	3-1	113.4	102.9	111.3
Washington St.	1-0	3-1	106.2	106.7	107.2
California	0-0	1-2	96.3	91.8	94.3
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona	0-0	3-0	119.5	114.6	118.3
U C L A	0-0	3-0	118.3	112.2	117.2
Arizona St.	0-1	2-1	116.2	117.3	116.0
U S C	0-1	3-1	112.5	109.8	112.3
Utah	0-1	3-1	105.3	105.0	105.5
Colorado	0-0	2-0	92.0	97.5	90.1
League Averages			113.2	110.0	112.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.				Overall			PiRate		Mean			Bias
Georgia	1-0				2-1			121.2		118.7			121.4
South Carolina	1-1				2-1			119.9		117.9			119.6
Florida	1-0				2-1			118.0		114.0			116.5
Missouri	0-0				3-0			116.2		113.5			115.5
Vanderbilt	0-2				2-2			107.3		104.9			106.5
Tennessee	0-1				2-2			104.5		103.7			103.3
Kentucky	0-0				1-2			99.0		99.6			97.5
West Division
Team	Conf.				Overall			PiRate		Mean			Bias
Alabama	1-0				3-0			130.5		123.9			131.3
Ole Miss	1-0				3-0			124.9		120.5			125.2
Texas A&M	0-1				3-1			122.1		118.1			122.2
L S U	1-0				4-0			121.3		120.5			122.3
Mississippi St.	0-1				2-2			111.1		107.8			111.3
Auburn	1-1				3-1			107.1		106.9			106.2
Arkansas	0-0				3-1			100.2		106.2			98.8
League Averages								114.5		112.6			114.1
Sunbelt Conference
Team		Conf.				Overall			PiRate			Mean			Bias
Louisiana–Lafayette		0-0				2-2			94.1			94.2			93.5
Louisiana–Monroe		0-0				2-2			92.6			90.3			92.7
Arkansas St.		1-0				2-2			91.4			86.9			90.7
Western Kentucky		0-1				2-2			89.9			91.5			90.3
Troy		0-1				2-2			83.2			83.9			83.9
South Alabama		1-0				2-1			82.9			87.4			83.9
Texas St.		0-0				2-1			81.7			88.3			81.3
Georgia St.		0-0				0-4			60.2			69.4			61.6
League Averages									84.5			86.5			84.7
Transitioning Teams
Team				Overall			PiRate				Mean			Bias
Georgia Southern				2-1			85.9				88.3			93.0
Old Dominion				2-2			81.0				81.8			88.0
Appalachian St.				1-2			79.1				77.8			86.2
Charlotte				2-2			57.0				61.6			64.1
Not figured in regular averages to 100

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Date:	September 26-28, 2013
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	8.9	8.1	10.4
Tulsa	Iowa St.	-1.5	5.6	-0.6
B Y U	Middle Tennessee	25.4	17.7	25.4
San Jose St.	Utah St.	-1.4	-3.4	-3.3
Alabama	Ole Miss	8.6	6.4	9.1
Arizona St.	U S C	6.7	10.5	6.7
Arkansas	Texas A&M	-18.9	-8.9	-20.4
Ball St.	Toledo	0.8	3.5	1.0
Boise St.	Southern Miss.	23.0	18.2	24.0
Boston College	Florida St.	-15.8	-21.2	-17.4
Bowling Green	Akron	19.3	14.5	20.1
Buffalo	Connecticut	1.4	6.3	1.0
Central Florida	South Carolina	-13.5	-9.3	-12.3
Clemson	Wake Forest	22.4	18.2	23.2
Colorado St.	U T E P	12.6	6.5	13.2
Duke	Troy	16.9	16.6	15.3
Georgia	L S U	2.9	1.2	2.1
Hawaii	Fresno St.	-15.6	-14.0	-16.1
Idaho	Temple	-14.6	-4.7	-13.9
Illinois	Miami (O)	23.9	23.9	25.8
Kentucky	Florida	-16.0	-11.4	-16.0
Louisiana Tech (a)	Army	-0.6	-5.9	-2.3
Minnesota	Iowa	3.5	4.1	2.0
Missouri	Arkansas St.	27.8	29.6	27.8
Nevada	Air Force	16.4	15.5	16.9
New Mexico	U N L V	-3.8	-0.2	-4.0
New Mexico St.	San Diego St.	-17.3	-8.9	-17.9
North Carolina	East Carolina	11.5	11.7	10.8
North Carolina St.	Central Michigan	18.4	22.2	20.3
Notre Dame	Oklahoma	3.1	4.0	1.1
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	9.0	5.3	9.1
Oregon	California	40.6	41.0	44.2
Oregon St.	Colorado	24.4	8.4	24.2
Pittsburgh	Virginia	8.8	3.6	7.9
Purdue	Northern Illinois	0.9	-3.7	-2.5
Rice	Florida Atlantic	13.3	17.8	14.3
South Florida	Miami (Fl)	-24.1	-32.2	-25.6
T C U	S M U	21.8	12.4	22.6
Tennessee	South Alabama	24.6	19.3	22.4
Texas St.	Wyoming	-9.4	-4.5	-12.2
U T S A	Houston	-1.0	-8.6	-2.2
UL-Monroe	Tulane	13.1	5.4	13.3
Vanderbilt	U A B	22.2	17.7	21.2
Washington	Arizona	3.9	4.5	6.1
Washington St. (b)	Stanford	-16.7	-7.3	-14.6
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	-21.2	-18.2	-23.9
Western Kentucky	Navy	-5.2	-5.8	-4.9
Western Michigan	Kent St.	-4.9	-7.1	-4.2
(a) Neutral Site Game at Dallas
(b) Game Played in Seattle

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Bowl Projections

GAME	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Washington St.
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas	Boise St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Famous Idaho Potato	(U T S A)	vs.	Toledo
New Orleans	UL-Lafayette	vs.	Rice
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s	(Arkansas St.)	vs.	East Carolina
Hawai’i	(Ohio)	vs.	North Texas
Little Caesars Pizza	Bowling Green	vs.	Illinois
Poinsettia	Utah St.	vs.	(Oregon St.)
Military Bowl	Pittsburgh	vs.	Marshall
Texas	Nebraska	vs.	Kansas St.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	U S C	vs.	B Y U
Pinstripe	Rutgers	vs.	(Notre Dame)
Belk	Houston	vs.	North Carolina
Russell Athletic	Central Florida	vs.	Georgia Tech
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Texas	vs.	Northwestern
Armed Forces	San Jose St.	vs.	Navy
Music City	North Carolina St.	vs.	Florida
Alamo	Baylor	vs.	Stanford
Holiday	Texas Tech	vs.	Washington
AdvoCare V100 Bowl	(Ball St.)	vs.	Virginia Tech
Sun	Maryland	vs.	Arizona
Liberty	Mississippi St.	vs.	Tulsa
Chick-fil-A	Miami	vs.	South Carolina
Heart Of Dallas	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Iowa
Gator	Michigan St.	vs.	Missouri
Outback	Texas A&M	vs.	Michigan
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Georgia
Rose	Ohio St.	vs.	U C L A
Fiesta	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Fresno St.
Sugar	L S U	vs.	Clemson
Cotton	Ole Miss	vs.	Oklahoma
Orange	Florida St.	vs.	Louisville
BBVA Compass Bowl	Cincinnati	vs.	Auburn
GoDaddy.com	Texas St.	vs.	Northern Illinois
BCS Championship	Oregon	vs.	Alabama

Coming Up

Wednesday—New NFL PiRate Ratings and Spreads for Week 4

Thursday—PiRate Picks for College Week 5 & NFL Week 4

 

*** Thank You For Your Patronage ***

 

 

PiRate Ratings for College Football: Week 3–September 15-17, 2011

PiRate Ratings For Week 3: September 15-17, 2011

 

#	Team	PiRate
1	Alabama	133.2
2	Oklahoma	132.8
3	TexasA&M	130.6
4	Stanford	127.7
5	L S U	127.2
6	Oregon	125.1
7	Boise St.	124.8
8	Arkansas	123.6
9	Florida St.	122.0
10	S. Carolina	120.5
11	Oklahoma St.	120.3
12	Notre Dame	120.2
13	Wisconsin	119.6
14	Florida	118.8
15	Miss.State	117.1
16	Michigan	117.0
17	Virginia Tech	116.4
18	Arizona St.	116.1
19	Nebraska	114.8
20	Missouri	113.5
21	Southern Cal	113.3
22	Michigan St.	113.1
23	PennState	113.0
24	Miami	112.9
25	Auburn	112.5
26	Washington	111.7
27	Arizona	111.3
28	Georgia	111.2
29	T C U	110.7
30	California	109.9
31	B Y U	109.3
32	Tennessee	109.1
33	Utah	108.8
34	Maryland	108.8
35	Clemson	108.6
36	Texas	108.3
37	Washington St.	107.8
38	Cincinnati	107.1
39	Pittsburgh	107.0
40	Illinois	106.8
41	N.C.State	106.7
42	U C L A	106.7
43	Iowa	106.7
44	Baylor	106.7
45	OhioState	106.6
46	W. Virginia	106.6
47	N. Carolina	106.2
48	TexasTech	105.7
49	Tulsa	105.0
50	Oregon St.	104.8
51	S. Florida	104.6
52	Northwestern	104.3
53	Air Force	103.6
54	Hawaii	101.8
55	Connecticut	101.4
56	WakeForest	101.3
57	IowaState	101.2
58	BostonColl.	100.9
59	Georgia Tech	100.8
60	Vanderbilt	100.7
61	Colorado	100.6
62	Nevada	99.4
63	Minnesota	99.3
64	San Diego St.	99.3
65	Navy	99.2
66	Houston	99.1
67	Ole Miss	99.1
68	Kansas St.	99.0
69	Central Fla.	99.0
70	S M U	98.8
71	Virginia	98.8
72	Kentucky	98.0
73	Utah St.	96.6
74	East Carolina	96.4
75	Duke	96.3
76	Purdue	95.9
77	Rutgers	95.0
78	Kansas	94.9
79	Fresno St.	94.9
80	Southern Miss.	94.0
81	Toledo	94.0
82	N. Illinois	93.8
83	Syracuse	93.6
84	San Jose St.	93.0
85	La.Tech	92.6
86	Miami(O)	91.9
87	Colo.State	91.6
88	Rice	90.9
89	FloridaInt’l	90.4
90	Wyoming	89.6
91	Louisville	89.3
92	Temple	89.3
93	Arkansas St.	88.8
94	W. Michigan	88.7
95	Marshall	88.5
96	U A B	86.5
97	Bowling Green	85.5
98	OhioU	85.1
99	Louisiana-Monroe	84.8
100	C. Michigan	84.1
101	Indiana	83.6
102	Idaho	83.2
103	Army	83.1
104	New Mexico	82.2
105	Troy	81.9
106	U N L V	81.0
107	N. Mexico St.	80.8
108	Ball St.	79.7
109	Tulane	78.8
110	Kent St.	78.3
111	U T E P	78.0
112	Louisiana-Laf.	77.3
113	Buffalo	76.7
114	MiddleTenn.	76.6
115	WesternKy.	76.6
116	N. Texas	69.6
117	Eastern Michigan	69.2
118	Fla.Atlantic	69.1
119	Akron	66.5
120	Memphis	64.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference—106.6 (5)
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
FloridaState	0-0	2-0	122.0
Maryland	1-0	1-0	108.8
Clemson	0-0	2-0	108.6
North CarolinaState	0-1	1-1	106.7
WakeForest	1-0	1-1	101.3
BostonCollege	0-0	0-2	100.9
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	0-0	2-0	116.4
Miami-FL	0-1	0-1	112.9
North Carolina	0-0	2-0	106.2
Georgia Tech	0-0	2-0	100.8
Virginia	0-0	2-0	98.8
Duke	0-0	0-2	96.3

 

 

Big East Conference—100.6 (7)
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	0-0	1-1	107.1
Pittsburgh	0-0	2-0	107.0
West Virginia	0-0	2-0	106.6
South Florida	0-0	2-0	104.6
Connecticut	0-0	1-1	101.4
Rutgers	0-0	1-1	95.0
Syracuse	0-0	2-0	93.6
Louisville	0-0	1-1	89.3

 

 

Big Ten—106.7 (4)
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Wisconsin	0-0	2-0	119.6
PennState	0-0	1-1	113.0
Illinois	0-0	2-0	106.8
OhioState	0-0	2-0	106.6
Purdue	0-0	1-1	95.9
Indiana	0-0	0-2	83.6
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Michigan	0-0	2-0	117.0
Nebraska	0-0	2-0	114.8
MichiganState	0-0	2-0	113.1
Iowa	0-0	1-1	106.7
Northwestern	0-0	2-0	104.3
Minnesota	0-0	0-2	99.3

 

 

Big 12—111.3 (3)
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	0-0	1-0	132.8
TexasA&M	0-0	0-0	130.6
OklahomaState	0-0	2-0	120.3
Missouri	0-0	1-1	113.5
Texas	0-0	2-0	108.3
Baylor	0-0	1-0	106.7
TexasTech	0-0	1-0	105.7
IowaState	0-0	2-0	101.2
KansasState	0-0	1-0	99.0
Kansas	0-0	2-0	94.9

 

 

Conference USA—81.7 (11)
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	0-0	2-0	99.0
East Carolina	0-0	0-2	96.4
Southern Mississippi	0-1	1-1	94.0
Marshall	1-0	1-0	88.5
U A B	0-0	0-1	86.5
Memphis	0-0	0-2	64.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	1-0	1-1	105.0
Houston	0-0	2-0	99.1
S M U	1-0	1-0	98.8
Rice	0-0	1-1	90.9
Tulane	0-1	1-1	78.8
U T E P	0-1	1-1	78.0

 

 

Independents—103.0 (6)
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		0-2	120.2
B Y U		1-1	109.3
Navy		2-0	99.2
Army		0-2	83.1

 

 

Mid American Conference—83.3  (10)
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Miami(O)	0-0	0-1	91.9
Temple	1-0	2-0	89.3
Bowling Green	0-0	2-0	85.5
OhioU	0-0	2-0	85.1
Kent St.	0-0	0-2	78.3
Buffalo	0-0	1-1	76.7
Akron	0-1	0-2	66.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Toledo	0-0	1-1	94.0
Northern Illinois	0-0	1-1	93.8
Western Michigan	0-0	1-1	88.7
Central Michigan	0-0	1-1	84.1
BallState	0-0	1-1	79.7
Eastern Michigan	0-0	2-0	69.2

 

 

Mountain West Conference—97.9 (8)
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
BoiseState	0-0	1-0	124.8
T C U	1-0	1-1	110.7
Air Force	0-1	1-1	103.6
San DiegoState	0-0	2-0	99.3
ColoradoState	1-0	2-0	91.6
Wyoming	0-0	2-0	89.6
New Mexico	0-1	0-2	82.2
UNLV	0-0	0-2	81.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference—112.0  (2)
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Stanford	0-0	2-0	127.7
Oregon	0-0	1-1	125.1
Washington	0-0	2-0	111.7
California	0-0	2-0	109.9
WashingtonState	0-0	2-0	107.8
OregonState	0-0	0-2	104.8
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
ArizonaState	0-0	2-0	116.1
U S C	1-0	2-0	113.3
Arizona	0-0	1-1	111.3
Utah	0-1	1-1	108.8
U C L A	0-0	1-1	106.7
Colorado	0-0	0-2	100.6

 

 

Southeastern Conference—114.3  (1)
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	1-0	2-0	120.5
Florida	0-0	2-0	118.8
Georgia	0-1	0-2	111.2
Tennessee	0-0	2-0	109.1
Vanderbilt	0-0	2-0	100.7
Kentucky	0-0	2-0	98.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	0-0	2-0	133.2
L S U	0-0	2-0	127.2
Arkansas	0-0	2-0	123.6
MississippiState	0-1	1-1	117.1
Auburn	1-0	2-0	112.5
Ole Miss	0-0	1-1	99.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference—79.5  (12)
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
FloridaInternational	1-0	2-0	90.4
ArkansasState	0-0	1-1	88.8
Louisiana-Monroe	0-0	1-1	84.8
Troy	0-0	0-1	81.9
U.ofLouisiana	0-0	1-1	77.3
Western Kentucky	0-0	0-2	76.6
MiddleTennessee	0-0	0-2	76.6
North Texas	0-1	0-2	69.6
FloridaAtlantic	0-0	0-2	69.1

 

 

Western Athletic Conference—92.8  (9)
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Hawaii	0-0	1-1	101.8
Nevada	0-0	0-1	99.4
UtahState	0-0	1-1	96.6
FresnoState	0-0	0-2	94.9
San JoseState	0-0	0-2	93.0
LouisianaTech	0-0	1-1	92.6
Idaho	0-0	1-1	83.2
New MexicoState	0-0	1-1	80.8

 

 

PiRate Ratings For Week 3 Games (with opening lines)

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Thursday, September 15		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
L s u	MISSISSIPPISTATE	7.1	34-27	4
Friday, September 16		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
BoiseState	TOLEDO	27.3	48-21	20 1/2
CONNECTICUT	IowaState	3.7	21-17	6 1/2
Saturday, September 17		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
MARYLAND	West Virginia	4.7	28-23	-3
Auburn	CLEMSON	0.9	31-30	-3
IOWA	Pittsburgh	3.2	24-21	4
CINCINNATI	Akron	43.6	54-10	29 1/2
Wyoming	BOWLING GREEN	0.1	27-27 to ot	-4 1/2
MICHIGAN	Eastern Michigan	50.3	63-13	30 1/2
PennState	TEMPLE	21.2	31-10	6 1/2
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Central Michigan	7.6	31-23	5
VANDERBILT	Ole Miss	4.6	21-16	-2
BOSTONCOLLEGE	Duke	8.1	32-24	9
GEORGIATECH	Kansas	9.9	34-24	14
Colorado(n)	ColoradoState	9.0	28-19	10
Wisconsin(n)	Northern Illinois	25.8	47-21	14
MINNESOTA	Miami(O)	10.9	35-24	1 1/2
FLORIDA	Tennessee	13.2	31-18	10
NOTRE DAME	MichiganState	10.6	31-20	3 1/2
NORTH CAROLINA	Virginia	10.9	28-17	11
U C L A	Texas	1.9	21-19	-4 1/2
NEBRASKA	Washington	7.1	31-24	17 1/2
TexasTech	NEW MEXICO	21.0	38-17	24
Northwestern	ARMY	18.2	35-17	6 1/2
Nevada	SAN JOSESTATE	3.4	31-28	7 1/2
U A B	Tulane	10.7	34-23	11 1/2
SOUTH CAROLINA	Navy	25.3	42-17	16 1/2
WashingtonState	SAN DIEGOSTATE	5.5	30-24	-9 1/2
KENTUCKY	Louisville	11.2	21-10	7 1/2
Houston	LOUISIANATECH	4.0	35-31	8
Marshall	OHIOU	0.4	24-24 to ot	-3 1/2
TEXASA&M	Idaho	51.9	62-10	29 1/2
BALLSTATE	Buffalo	5.5	28-22	5 1/2
ArizonaState	ILLINOIS	5.8	30-24	1 1/2
KANSASSTATE	KentState	24.2	34-10	18 1/2
SOUTHERN CAL	Syracuse	24.2	37-13	13
Oklahoma	FLORIDASTATE	6.8	38-31	4
NEW MEXICOSTATE	U t e p	5.8	27-21	-2
MIAMI(FLA)	OhioState	10.3	34-24	1
B Y U	Utah	3.0	20-17	5 1/2
OklahomaState	TULSA	12.8	41-28	11
Hawaii	U N L V	17.3	38-21	17
Stanford	ARIZONA	12.9	37-24	8
T C U	Louisiana-Monroe	29.4	35-6	31
VIRGINIATECH	ArkansasState	31.1	45-14	27 1/2
Central Florida	FLORIDAINT’L	5.6	23-17	5
ALABAMA	North Texas	68.1	68-0	43 1/2
ARKANSAS	Troy	45.7	56-10	26 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 8-10, 2011

PiRate Ratings—For Games of September 8-10, 2011

 

Robert Griffin III, Robert Griffin III, Robert Griffin III—there, now we are as trendy as any other football media this week.  The Junior quarterback may save the Bears this year, but he will not save the Big 12 Conference, and he may soon take a backseat to his own program when Baylor is left to find a location to align itself.

 

It looks like Dan Beebe’s conference is going to be the odd-league out.  Can the Big 12 survive in name only?

 

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech appear to be headed west to the Pac-16, albeit a year later than most people thought.  When Texas A&M slaughtered SMU Sunday, it felt more like an SEC team beating up on a CUSA team than anything else.

 

Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri will need to find a new conference.  Missouri makes a smart choice for the SEC, but the Big Ten and Big East are there as well.

 

As for the Big Ten, has anybody else noticed something about their new logo?  It goes something like this, “B1G.”  Glance at that logo, and you can almost see this, “B16.”  Might there be a valid reason for that similarity?

 

Week two presents a few really good games, until the BCS Bowl system is destroyed and replaced with playoffs, there will be no reason for the top programs to schedule intersectional games against each other.  Thus, because it is a no-win proposition, you won’t see many teams hurrying to add Boise State to their non-conference schedule.  You won’t see Oklahoma playing Arkansas, even though fans could easily drive to the opponent’s home stadium.  You won’t see a Big Ten-SEC Challenge where the 12 Big Ten teams face the 12 SEC teams like you see in basketball.  Instead, you get a couple of good games and several duds.

 

Here is the PiRate Ratings Top 25 For Week Two of the college football season, followed by all 120 FBS teams by conference.

 

NCAA Top 25 This Week
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Oklahoma	132.8	1	0
2	Alabama	132.4	1	0
3	Texas A&M	130.6	1	0
4	L S U	127.2	1	0
5	Stanford	126.8	1	0
6	Boise St.	124.2	1	0
7	Oregon	123.1	0	1
8	Arkansas	123.0	1	0
9	Florida St.	121.8	1	0
10	Notre Dame	121.6	0	1
11	S. Carolina	121.2	1	0
12	Oklahoma St.	118.0	1	0
13	Virginia Tech	117.6	1	0
14	Miss. State	117.3	1	0
15	Arizona St.	116.9	1	0
16	Wisconsin	116.6	1	0
17	Nebraska	116.4	1	0
18	Florida	116.1	1	0
19	Michigan	115.4	1	0
20	Southern Cal	113.6	1	0
21	Arizona	113.6	1	0
22	Penn State	113.6	1	0
23	Miami	112.9	0	1
24	Michigan St.	112.7	1	0
25	Missouri	112.7	1	0
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	0-0	1-0	121.8
Clemson	0-0	1-0	109.2
North Carolina State	0-0	1-0	109.1
Maryland	1-0	1-0	108.8
Boston College	0-0	0-1	106.4
Wake Forest	0-0	0-1	98.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	0-0	1-0	117.6
Miami-FL	0-1	0-1	112.9
North Carolina	0-0	1-0	108.2
Virginia	0-0	1-0	99.4
Georgia Tech	0-0	1-0	97.7
Duke	0-0	0-1	97.1

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Cincinnati	0-0	1-0	109.3
Pittsburgh	0-0	1-0	107.7
West Virginia	0-0	0-0	106.6
South Florida	0-0	1-0	104.3
Connecticut	0-0	1-0	101.8
Syracuse	0-0	1-0	94.6
Rutgers	0-0	1-0	94.0
Louisville	0-0	1-0	90.5

 

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Wisconsin	0-0	1-0	116.6
Penn State	0-0	1-0	113.6
Ohio State	0-0	1-0	108.7
Illinois	0-0	1-0	105.6
Purdue	0-0	1-0	97.3
Indiana	0-0	0-1	83.0
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	0-0	1-0	116.4
Michigan	0-0	1-0	115.4
Michigan State	0-0	1-0	112.7
Iowa	0-0	1-0	107.3
Minnesota	0-0	0-1	105.3
Northwestern	0-0	1-0	104.6

 

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	0-0	1-0	132.8
Texas A&M	0-0	0-0	130.6
Oklahoma State	0-0	1-0	118.0
Missouri	0-0	1-0	112.7
Texas	0-0	1-0	108.5
Baylor	0-0	1-0	106.1
Texas Tech	0-0	1-0	105.7
Iowa State	0-0	1-0	100.6
Kansas State	0-0	1-0	99.0
Kansas	0-0	1-0	95.1

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Southern Mississippi	0-0	1-0	97.0
East Carolina	0-0	0-1	95.2
Central Florida	0-0	1-0	92.5
U A B	0-0	0-0	89.1
Marshall	0-0	0-0	85.8
Memphis	0-0	0-1	71.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	0-0	0-1	103.6
S M U	0-0	0-0	102.0
Houston	0-0	1-0	98.9
Rice	0-0	0-1	89.5
Tulane	0-0	1-0	80.2
U T E P	0-0	1-0	74.8

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		0-1	121.6
B Y U		1-0	109.0
Navy		1-0	97.1
Army		0-1	81.3

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Miami (O)	0-0	0-1	91.9
Ohio U	0-0	1-0	85.4
Temple	0-0	1-0	85.1
Bowling Green	0-0	1-0	84.2
Kent St.	0-0	0-1	80.6
Buffalo	0-0	0-1	75.7
Akron	0-0	0-1	69.2
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	0-0	1-0	93.6
Toledo	0-0	1-0	91.9
Western Michigan	0-0	0-1	88.5
Central Michigan	0-0	1-0	83.4
Ball State	0-0	1-0	79.9
Eastern Michigan	0-0	0-0	69.6

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	0-0	1-0	124.2
T C U	0-0	0-1	108.0
Air Force	0-0	1-0	106.3
San Diego State	0-0	1-0	100.8
Colorado State	1-0	1-0	91.4
Wyoming	0-0	1-0	89.6
UNLV	0-0	0-1	84.8
New Mexico	0-1	0-1	82.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Stanford	0-0	1-0	126.8
Oregon	0-0	0-1	123.1
Washington	0-0	1-0	112.4
California	0-0	1-0	111.0
Oregon State	0-0	0-1	110.1
Washington State	0-0	1-0	103.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Arizona State	0-0	1-0	116.9
U S C	0-0	1-0	113.6
Arizona	0-0	1-0	113.6
U C L A	0-0	0-1	108.7
Utah	0-0	1-0	108.4
Colorado	0-0	0-1	99.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	0-0	1-0	121.2
Florida	0-0	1-0	116.1
Georgia	0-0	0-1	110.2
Tennessee	0-0	1-0	106.9
Vanderbilt	0-0	1-0	100.2
Kentucky	0-0	1-0	98.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	0-0	1-0	132.4
L S U	0-0	1-0	127.2
Arkansas	0-0	1-0	123.0
Mississippi State	0-0	1-0	117.3
Auburn	0-0	1-0	111.8
Ole Miss	0-0	0-1	99.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	1-0	1-0	89.5
Louisiana-Monroe	0-0	0-1	84.1
Arkansas State	0-0	0-1	83.5
Troy	0-0	0-1	81.9
Middle Tennessee	0-0	0-1	79.7
Western Kentucky	0-0	0-1	78.6
U.of Louisiana	0-0	0-1	73.5
North Texas	0-1	0-1	69.6
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-1	69.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nevada	0-0	0-0	101.4
Hawaii	0-0	1-0	101.1
Utah State	0-0	0-1	95.6
LouisianaTech	0-0	0-1	93.4
Fresno State	0-0	0-1	93.3
San Jose State	0-0	0-1	90.8
Idaho	0-0	0-1	83.0
New Mexico State	0-0	0-1	74.3

 

 

Here is a look at this week’s games with the PiRate Ratings and official early Las Vegas line from Monday.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Thursday, September 8		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
OKLAHOMA STATE	Arizona	7.9	42-34	14
Friday, September 9		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
ARIZONA STATE	Missouri	7.7	28-20	7 1/2
LOUISVILLE	Florida Int’l	3.5	28-24	4 1/2
Saturday, September 10		PiRate Spread
Favorite	Underdog		Score	Line
WISCONSIN	Oregon State	11.0	38-27	21
Iowa	IOWA STATE	4.7	24-19	7
KENTUCKY	Central Michigan	17.8	28-10	13 1/2
San Diego State	ARMY	15.0	35-20	9 1/2
OHIOSTATE	Toledo	19.8	37-17	18
Mississippi State	AUBURN	2.5	31-28	6 1/2
NORTH CAROLINA	Rutgers	17.7	31-13	11
KANSAS	Northern Illinois	5.0	28-23	-6 1/2
S M U	U t e p	30.2	49-19	18
TENNESSEE	Cincinnati	1.1	25-24	6 1/2
Tulsa	TULANE	20.9	42-21	13 1/2
Virginia Tech	EAST CAROLINA	19.4	44-25	19
MINNESOTA	New Mexico State	35.0	49-14	19 1/2
WASHINGTON	Hawaii	15.8	42-26	4
OREGON	Nevada	26.2	45-19	26
California	COLORADO	8.8	28-19	6
Stanford	DUKE	26.2	40-14	21
Alabama	PENN STATE	14.8	27-12	10
AIR FORCE	T c u	1.8	28-26	-1 1/2
North Carolina St.	WAKE FOREST	7.9	35-27	2
Purdue	RICE	4.3	28-24	2
Southern Miss.	MARSHALL	8.2	25-17	8 1/2
South Carolina	GEORGIA	8.0	31-23	3
Temple	AKRON	13.4	27-14	15
NEBRASKA	Fresno State	27.1	41-14	28
Virginia	INDIANA	13.4	27-14	6 1/2
TEXAS	B y u	3.5	28-24	6 1/2
FLORIDA	U a b	31.5	45-13	21 1/2
SOUTH FLORIDA	Ball State	27.9	38-10	21
ARKANSAS	New Mexico	44.3	58-14	37
WASHINGTON STATE	U n l v	21.7	35-13	14
VANDERBILT	Connecticut	1.4	20-19	Pk
SOUTHERN CAL	Utah	9.2	30-21	9
Boston College	CENTRAL FLORIDA	10.4	27-17	-6 1/2
Notre Dame	MICHIGAN	2.7	27-24	3 1/2
U C L A	San Jose State	21.4	35-14	21 1/2
MICHIGAN STATE	Florida Atlantic	47.3	56-9	31 1/2
ARKANSAS STATE	Memphis	14.3	35-21	14 1/2
Houston	NORTH TEXAS	31.8	52-20	22
Navy	WESTERN KENTUCKY	16.0	30-14	10
Georgia Tech	MIDDLE TENNESSEE	15.0	35-20	11 1/2
KENT STATE	Louisiana	10.6	28-17	9 1/2

 

Coming Tomorrow—the opening NFL PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings College Football Top 25–Final

Congratulations to the Auburn Tigers, winners of the BCS Championship Game.  It was a great contest, but the final drive was something of a letdown with the non-tackle leading to Auburn getting an easy field goal on the last play.

The PiRate Ratings have been calculated from all the meaningless bowls, and Auburn did not gain enough points to emerge the PiRate National Champion.

Our 2010-11 National Champion played and won on New Year’s Day.  The TCU Horned Frogs gained enough points to edge out Auburn for the PiRate National Champion.  Here is our final top 25 rating for the season.

NCAA Top 25 January 11, 2011
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	134.2	13	0
2	Auburn	133.8	14	0
3	Ohio State	132.6	12	1
4	Oregon	131.9	12	1
5	Stanford	131.8	12	1
6	Boise State	130.7	12	1
7	Wisconsin	130.4	11	2
8	Alabama	130.1	10	3
9	Oklahoma	129.4	12	2
10	L S U	124.1	11	2
11	Oklahoma State	124.0	11	2
12	Nevada	120.3	13	1
13	Florida State	120.2	10	4
14	Arkansas	119.7	10	3
15	Mississippi State	119.4	9	4
16	Virginia Tech	117.7	11	3
17	South Carolina	117.1	9	5
18	Nebraska	115.8	10	4
19	Texas A&M	115.6	9	4
20	S.D. State	115.1	9	4
21	Florida	113.7	8	5
22	N. C. State	113.5	9	4
23	Iowa	113.4	8	5
24	Central Fla.	113.2	11	3
25	Maryland	112.9	9	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though we rank them to two decimal points

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	132.5	12	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Auburn	131.0	13	0
5	Boise State	128.8	11	1
6	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
7	Oklahoma	127.7	11	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	124.2	11	2
12	Florida State	119.8	9	4
13	South Carolina	119.4	9	4
14	Nebraska	118.9	10	3
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	117.0	9	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Nevada	115.7	12	1
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Florida	115.3	7	5
23	Missouri	115.2	10	2
24t	Arizona	115.2	7	5
24t	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-4	119.8
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	11-2	124.2
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	117.0
Pittsburgh	5-2	7-5	110.7
Connecticut	5-2	8-4	108.0
South Florida	3-4	7-5	106.9
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-5	4-8	100.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-6	4-8	89.5

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Illinois	4-4	6-6	104.4
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-3	118.9
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	11-2	127.7
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	10-3	102.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-6	92.7
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Miami (O)	7-1	9-4	90.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-3	104.1
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-11	80.4
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	9-0	12-0	132.5
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-5	7-5	115.2
Southern Cal	5-4	8-5	112.0
Arizona St.	4-5	6-6	111.0
Oregon St.	4-5	5-7	109.6
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	5-4	6-6	107.1
U C L A	2-7	4-8	101.8
Washington State	1-8	2-10	94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-4	119.4
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	13-0	131.0
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-2	6-6	87.0
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	6-2	7-5	85.8
Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	82.8
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1
Florida Atlantic	3-5	4-8	73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-1	11-1	128.8
Nevada	7-1	12-1	115.9
Hawaii	7-1	10-3	108.9
Fresno State	5-3	8-4	98.2
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7	93.0
Idaho	3-5	6-7	88.1
Utah State	2-6	4-8	88.0
San Jose State	0-8	1-12	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Navy	Army (Philadelphia)	14.4	31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army  (Philadelphia)	31-23	27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	131.9	11	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Boise State	130.6	10	1
5	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
6	Auburn	127.5	12	0
7	Oklahoma	127.1	10	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	123.1	10	2
12	South Carolina	122.9	9	3
13	Florida State	120.9	9	3
14	Nebraska	119.5	10	2
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	116.8	8	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Arizona	116.3	7	4
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Nevada	115.3	11	1
23	Florida	115.3	7	5
24	Missouri	115.2	10	2
25	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-3	120.9
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	10-2	123.1
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	4-2	8-3	116.8
Pittsburgh	4-2	6-5	108.6
Connecticut	4-2	7-4	107.6
South Florida	3-3	7-4	107.3
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-4	4-7	102.8
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-5	4-7	89.7

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-2	119.5
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	10-2	127.1
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	9-3	103.2
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-5	92.4
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Miami (O)	7-1	8-4	87.8
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-2	106.9
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-10	82.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	8-0	11-0	131.9
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-4	7-4	116.3
Southern Cal	4-4	7-5	111.0
Oregon St.	4-4	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	3-5	5-6	109.9
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	4-4	5-6	106.9
U C L A	2-6	4-7	102.8
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-3	122.9
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	12-0	127.5
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-1	6-5	88.4
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	5-2	6-5	82.8
Middle Tennessee	4-3	5-6	81.4
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Florida Atlantic	3-4	4-7	76.7
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-1	10-1	130.6
Nevada	6-1	11-1	115.3
Hawaii	7-1	9-3	106.8
Fresno State	5-3	7-4	97.5
Louisiana Tech	4-3	5-6	93.6
Idaho	2-5	5-7	89.3
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-7	1-11	77.3
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	8.9	31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	4.1	31-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)   (Detroit)	19.1	42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Southern Cal	U C L A	6.2	34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	2.7	20-17
Oregon	OREGON STATE	18.7	45-26
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	10.0	31-21
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	30.1	42-12
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	2.8	24-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	10.0	34-24
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	3.1	30-27
BOISE STATE	Utah State	47.4	61-14
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	18.2	35-17
IDAHO	San Jose State	14.5	38-23
HAWAII	U n l v	28.3	49-21
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	4.6	35-30
Virginia Tech	Florida State (Charlotte)	2.2	25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	13.8	35-21
Oklahoma	Nebraska (Dallas)	7.6	21-13

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	31-21	27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	34-31	34-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)  (Detroit)	35-24	41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Southern Cal	U C L A	31-21	30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	27-24	27-23
Oregon	OREGON STATE	49-26	51-19
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	35-27	35-20
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	34-14	34-14
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	34-22	28-26
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	31-24	34-28
BOISE STATE	Utah State	56-20	59-17
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	37-17	35-31
IDAHO	San Jose State	42-24	45-28
HAWAII	U n l v	49-20	48-14
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	38-24	34-24
Virginia Tech	Florida State  (Charlotte)	26-25	27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	34-26	35-30
Oklahoma	Nebraska  (Dallas)	21-16	22-20

Bowl Projections Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	B Y U 6-6	WAC (#3?)	Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Miami (O) 8-5	WAC #(1) or 2	Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	Connecticut 7-5	C-USA #4-6	Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO	MWC #1	Utah 10-2	Pac 10 #5	[Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	S. D. State 8-4	Navy or WAC	NAVY 9-3
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	HAWAII 10-3	C-USA #2-6	Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Louisville 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	Notre Dame 7-5	ACC #3	N. C. State 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 7-5
Military	ACC #8	Boston Coll. 7-5	C-USA #6	E C U 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Penn State 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Oklahoma St. 10-2	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	S M U 7-6	MWC #3-5/Army	Army 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 7-5	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Maryland 8-4
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	N. Carolina 8-4	Big East #3-4	S. Florida 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	Miami (FL) 7-5	Pac 10 #4	[Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6	C-USA #1	Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	Miss. State 8-4	ACC #2	Florida State 9-4
Ticket City	Big 10 #6-7	Northwestern 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 7-5
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan St. 11-1	SEC #2	L S U 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Illinois 7-5	SEC #6	Florida 7-5
Rose	BCS Pac10	T C U 12-0	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 11-2	BCS At-Large	Stanford 11-1
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	West Va. 9-3
Sugar	BCS SEC	Ohio State 11-1	BCS At-Large	Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 7-5	MAC #1 or 2	Toledo 8-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska 10-3	SEC #3-6 W	Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass	Big East #5	Pittsburgh 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Temple 8-4]	WAC #1	Nevada 11-1
Championship Game	*** BCS #1 ***	Oregon 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 23-27, 2010

The Winning Streak Comes To An End

It had to happen.  We knew we could not go through the entire season with one winning week after another.  Our luck ran dry this weekend.  Our picks went 2-2-1 against the spread, which in our terms, is a losing week, since you lay 10-11 odds when picking straight sides.

 

Perhaps we should not have deviated from our sweetheart teaser picks, but we liked the five games we selected.  Let’s quickly reveal our picks so we can move on and talk college football

 

1. Tennessee -9 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

Okay, if you are one of our regular subscribers to our handicapping service, maybe you did enjoy a winning week.  For, we told you that we felt that the Vols had a 99% chance of covering at -9.  If you decided to make this your only pick, then you went 1-0.

 

Vanderbilt has run out of gas, while Tennessee is on their annual November roll.  The final score was only 24-10, and we had to sweat out a late Vandy run with backup quarterback Jared Funk.

 

2. Ohio State -3 vs. Iowa

Push

This game surprised us a bit.  We felt as if the Buckeyes were ready to pull off a two touchdown win, and when the offense struggled early, we were concerned.  Ohio State is not as strong as they were supposed to be, and they should not have gained ground on Wisconsin in the BCS standings. 

 

3. Texas A&M + 2 ½ vs. Nebraska

WON

Please don’t let Bo Pelini hear this.  We told our subscribers that we had a sneaky suspicion that Nebraska would see a lot of questionable officiating calls go against them in this game, just like it happened against Texas.  The national media has to put on a good face, but we could care less about stepping on toes of the Big 12 Conference.  We warned our fans on Thursday that we suspected this would happen.  The game was considered a tossup, so we felt A&M would win by a touchdown.  It was only by a field goal, but we won any way.

 

4. Cleveland Browns + 1 ½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lost

The Browns’ short flirtation with respectability has gone back into hibernation.  We blew this one royally, thinking the boys from Lake Erie would win by 7-10 points.

 

5. San Francisco 49ers + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Lost

Tampa Bay has proven they are playoff worthy.  San Francisco’s offensive woes continue, and yet they are still in contention in the worst division in the history of NFL football.

 

A Look At The FBS Conference Races and Bowls

There are 35 bowls this year.  Thus, 70 teams need to be bowl eligible.  With two weeks to go in the season, only 64 teams are bowl eligible.  It is a sure thing that at least one or two others will gain bowl eligibility due to the schedule.  What happens if the magic number falls short of 70?  Will the NCAA allow 5-7 teams into the bowls?  Who would want to see a 5-7 and 6-6 team face off in a loser bowl?

 

A 12-team playoff, using the top 11 bowls would leave 24 bowls for the rest of the NCAA.  This would not be a problem.  The bowl that might end up with a 5-7 team would end up with a 7-5 or 8-4 team under a 12-team playoff.

 

The PiRate Ratings have conducted simulated NCAA football playoffs the past two seasons, and we will do so again after the end of the regular season.

 

Let’s look at each conference as it stands today.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech has sewn up the Coastal Division Championship.  They will face either North Carolina State or Florida State.  If N.C. State beats Maryland, they win the division title.  If Maryland wins, Florida State goes to the ACC title game.

 

Nine teams are already bowl eligible, and the conference has eight bowl tie-ins.  Expect all nine teams to land in bowls.

 

 

Big East

No team in this league belongs in a BCS bowl game.  TCU and Boise State are 21 points better than the best team in the Big East.  The cold hard fact is that the winner of this conference will be the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl picks—the Fiesta Bowl. 

 

Pittsburgh has a one game lead over West Virginia and Connecticut.  They would lose a three-way tiebreaker if the three finished 5-2.

 

Connecticut, South Florida, and Syracuse are bowl eligible.  Louisville is one win away, while Cincinnati and Rutgers are still in contention at 4-6.  We think UL will get that sixth win this week against Rutgers, while Cincinnati falls short.  Throw in Notre Dame, which will finish no worse than 6-6, and there will be enough teams to satisfy the league’s allotment.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Three teams are in contention for the Rose Bowl with one week to go.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tied at 6-1.  If they all win this week, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings will get the Rose Bowl bid.  Wisconsin holds a marginal lead over Ohio State.  The Badgers face Northwestern, while the Buckeyes host Michigan.  It will be a close vote if both win.  Michigan State wins a tiebreaker with Wisconsin, while Wisconsin wins a tiebreaker with Ohio State.  If Ohio State and Michigan State finish tied at 7-1, the Buckeyes will be the higher ranked team in the BCS and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

Eight teams are bowl eligible, and there is a decent chance that a second team will get a BCS at-large bid.  That would make nine bowl openings for eight teams, and the need for an at-large representative for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

 

 

 

Big 12

The Big 12 is out of the national championship picture this year.  Nebraska will win the North Division with a win over Colorado or a Missouri loss to Kansas.  Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma to wrap up the South Division, but the Sooners could easily win this game.  If Texas A&M beats Texas, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, it will take five steps into the conference’s tiebreaker rules to determine the representative for the Big 12 Championship Game.  Oklahoma would hold the leg up over the other two.

 

Colorado and Texas need wins to gain bowl eligibility, but it is our opinion that both will lose their finales and miss out.  That will leave eight bowl eligible teams for eight bowls.

 

 

 

Conference USA

In the East, Central Florida is as close to in the league title game as a team can be and not already have it clinched.  UCF only needs to beat hapless Memphis to secure the division flag.  It is a certainty.

 

In the West, SMU controls its own destiny.  However, the Mustangs play at East Carolina this week.  We believe the Pirates will win.  That means Tulsa would capture the flag with a win over Southern Miss.  We will give the Golden Hurricane the edge.

 

Houston needs a win at Texas Tech to gain bowl eligibility, but the Cougars are wounded without their top two quarterbacks.  No bowl for Houston this year.

 

 

 

Independents

Navy is bowl eligible, and the Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  Army is also bowl eligible, and they will get an at-large selection somewhere.  Notre Dame is bowl eligible, and they will either receive one of the Big East bowl bids or an at-large bid.

 

 

Mid-American

As usual, there are always more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids for the MAC.  Ohio, Temple, and Miami (O) from the East and Northern Illinois and Toledo from the West are bowl eligible.  Western Michigan will become bowl eligible with a win at Bowling Green.  That will leave six teams available for three bids.  Expect five of the six to go bowling.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

TCU’s blowout win over New Mexico this week will give the Horned Frogs their second consecutive undefeated regular season finish and at-large selection to a BCS Bowl.  There is a small chance that they could play for the National Championship.  Their BCS ranking will drop by playing the 1-10 Lobos, while Boise State finished on the road against a ranked team.

 

Five teams are bowl eligible, and all five will go to bowls.  That will leave one bowl spot open for an at-large invitee—the New Mexico Bowl.

 

 

 

Pac-10

This is the messy conference.  To start out, Southern Cal is ineligible for a bowl.  Throw in the chance that Stanford will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  Now, top it off with the fact that Arizona is the only other bowl eligible team at this point.  California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, but we believe only one of these five will do it.  That means this league could fall three bids short.

 

 

 

Southeastern

“As the Cam Turns” is the top-rated soap opera in the South during November sweeps.  It just may turn south on Auburn this week.  We think Alabama is going to end the Tigers’ championship hopes this week.  We cannot see any scenario where Auburn would jump Boise State and TCU after losing this late in the season.  It is no gimme that the Tigers can beat South Carolina twice in one season.

 

LSU can grab an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl with a win at Arkansas, but we believe the Razorbacks will put an end to those aspirations.

 

Georgia and Tennessee need victories this week to gain bowl eligibility.  We think both will be victorious.  That will leave 10 bowl eligible teams for nine bowls and an at-large bid.

 

 

 

 

Sunbelt

Somebody has to win this league.  With two weeks left in the season, one for UL-Monroe, no team has earned bowl eligibility.  The schedule guarantees that at least one team will become bowl eligible, and we think at least two will pick up a sixth win.  For a change, Troy may not win the conference championship.

 

 

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has a tough finale at Nevada this week, but we do not believe the boys from Reno have a strong enough defense to slow down the Broncos.  Boise State is our top-rated team, and we feel like they would be a field goal choice over Oregon in a national title game.  A win at Nevada should allow the Broncos to jump over TCU in the BCS standings, and if Auburn loses to Alabama, it should put BSU into the number two slot.

 

Louisiana Tech and Idaho still have remote chances at bowl eligibility, but we think both will fall one game short.  With BSU getting a BCS Bowl bid, the WAC will fall one team short in its bowl obligations. 

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 22, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Boise State	134.6	10	0
2	T C U	132.9	11	0
3	Oregon	132.1	10	0
4	Stanford	129.7	10	1
5	Alabama	127.5	9	2
6	Ohio State	127.1	10	1
7	Oklahoma	127.0	9	2
8	Auburn	126.2	11	0
9	Arkansas	124.4	9	2
10	Virginia Tech	122.8	9	2
11	Wisconsin	122.7	10	1
12	South Carolina	121.1	8	3
13	Texas A&M	118.8	8	3
14	Nebraska	118.8	9	2
15	Florida State	118.2	8	3
16	L S U	118.0	10	1
17t	Florida	118.0	7	4
17t	Miami (Fla)	118.0	7	4
19	Iowa	117.3	7	4
20	Oklahoma State	116.4	10	1
21	Arizona	116.1	7	3
22	North Carolina	115.6	6	5
23	Georgia	115.5	5	6
24	Missouri	114.9	9	2
25	Mississippi State	114.8	7	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	8-3	118.2
Clemson	4-4	6-5	112.8
North Carolina State	5-2	8-3	111.4
Maryland	4-3	7-4	104.7
Boston College	4-4	6-5	103.9
Wake Forest	1-7	2-9	89.9
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	7-0	9-2	122.8
Miami-FL	5-3	7-4	118.0
North Carolina	3-4	6-5	115.6
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-5	108.7
Virginia	1-6	4-7	95.3
Duke	1-6	3-8	95.1

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	114.6
Pittsburgh	4-1	6-4	110.8
Connecticut	3-2	6-4	106.4
South Florida	3-3	6-4	104.5
Cincinnati	2-3	4-6	104.0
Louisville	2-4	5-6	102.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-4	101.1
Rutgers	1-4	4-6	91.1

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	10-1	127.1
Wisconsin	6-1	10-1	122.7
Iowa	4-3	7-4	117.3
Michigan State	6-1	10-1	110.2
Michigan	3-4	7-4	106.5
Penn State	4-3	7-4	105.1
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Northwestern	3-4	7-4	95.4
Minnesota	1-6	2-9	94.0
Purdue	2-5	4-7	92.5
Indiana	0-7	4-7	88.7

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-2	9-2	118.8
Missouri	5-2	9-2	114.9
Kansas State	3-5	6-5	100.7
Colorado	2-5	5-6	100.3
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-6	3-8	88.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	5-2	9-2	127.0
Texas A&M	5-2	8-3	118.8
Oklahoma State	6-1	10-1	116.4
Texas	2-5	5-6	106.0
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	6-5	104.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	6-1	8-3	104.8
Southern Mississippi	5-2	8-3	98.6
East Carolina	5-2	6-5	90.2
U A B	3-4	4-7	86.8
Marshall	3-4	4-7	83.6
Memphis	0-7	1-10	69.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	5-2	8-3	98.1
Houston	4-4	5-6	96.5
S M U	5-2	6-5	92.2
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	2-5	3-8	84.0
Tulane	2-5	4-7	74.8

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-5	107.0
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-2	8-3	95.2
Ohio U	6-1	8-3	91.7
Miami (O)	6-1	7-4	85.2
Kent St.	3-4	4-7	80.6
Bowling Green	1-6	2-9	77.1
Buffalo	1-6	2-9	71.5
Akron	0-7	0-11	66.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	7-0	9-2	103.9
Toledo	6-1	7-4	88.5
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	86.7
Central Michigan	2-5	3-8	84.5
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-5	2-9	69.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	132.9
Utah	6-1	9-2	111.7
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-2	6-5	104.2
S. D. State	4-3	7-4	102.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-5	2-9	84.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-6	1-10	75.4

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-0	10-0	132.1
Stanford	7-1	10-1	129.7
Arizona	4-3	7-3	116.1
Southern Cal	4-4	7-4	112.9
Oregon St.	4-3	5-5	112.3
California	3-5	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	109.2
Washington	3-4	4-6	105.1
U C L A	2-5	4-6	103.5
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	8-3	121.1
Florida	4-4	7-4	118.0
Georgia	3-5	5-6	115.5
Kentucky	2-5	6-5	106.9
Tennessee	2-5	5-6	105.0
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-9	88.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-2	9-2	127.5
Auburn	7-0	11-0	126.2
Arkansas	5-2	9-2	124.4
L S U	6-1	10-1	118.0
Mississippi State	3-4	7-4	114.8
Ole Miss	1-6	4-7	100.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	5-1	5-5	88.1
Arkansas State	4-3	4-7	84.2
Troy	4-2	5-5	82.2
Middle Tennessee	3-3	4-6	79.9
North Texas	3-5	3-8	79.0
Louisiana-Monroe	4-3	5-6	78.9
Florida Atlantic	3-3	4-6	78.2
U. of Louisiana	2-5	2-9	76.8
Western Kentucky	2-5	2-9	75.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-0	10-0	134.6
Nevada	5-1	10-1	111.3
Hawaii	6-1	8-3	106.2
Fresno State	4-3	6-4	97.7
Louisiana Tech	3-3	4-6	94.0
Idaho	2-4	5-6	89.1
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-6	1-10	76.9
New Mexico State	1-6	2-9	72.5

 

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Temple	MIAMI (O)	7.0	28-21
Thursday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Texas A&M	TEXAS	10.3	24-14
Friday, November 26
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Louisville	RUTGERS	8.6	28-19
Western Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	6.6	27-20
West Virginia	PITTSBURGH	1.3	21-20
ALABAMA	Auburn	3.8	31-27
Buffalo	AKRON	2.6	24-21
TOLEDO	Central Michigan	7.0	38-31
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	31.5	45-13
EAST CAROLINA	S m u	1.0	35-34
Ohio U	KENT STATE	8.6	30-21
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	8.7	26-17
NEBRASKA	Colorado	21.5	28-6
TULSA	Southern Miss.	2.5	38-35
OREGON	Arizona	19.5	44-24
Boise State	NEVADA	26.3	46-20
Saturday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARKANSAS	L s u	9.4	35-26
STANFORD	Oregon State	20.4	37-17
CONNECTICUT	Cincinnati	5.4	26-21
FLORIDA STATE	Florida	2.7	27-24
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	9.3	33-24
North Carolina St.	MARYLAND	3.7	24-20
Iowa	MINNESOTA	20.3	37-17
Mississippi State	OLE MISS	11.4	28-17
North Carolina	DUKE	18.5	45-26
SYRACUSE	Boston College	0.2	17-17 to ot
OHIO STATE	Michigan	23.6	44-20
Oklahoma	OKLAHOMA STATE	8.1	34-26
Michigan State	PENN STATE	2.1	30-28
South Carolina	CLEMSON	5.8	34-28
VANDERBILT	Wake Forest	2.0	26-24
RICE	U a b	0.2	34-34 to ot
Kansas State	NORTH TEXAS	18.7	44-25
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	30.0	37-7
WISCONSIN	Northwestern	30.3	51-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Arkansas State	6.4	34-28
MIAMI (FL)	South Florida	16.5	38-21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Atlantic	4.2	31-27
UL-MONROE	UL-Lafayette	4.6	26-21
PURDUE	Indiana	6.8	38-31
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	1.1	35-34
TEXAS TECH	Houston	10.7	45-34
TROY	Western Kentucky	9.5	38-28
Central Florida	MEMPHIS	33.2	40-7
MARSHALL	Tulane	11.8	35-23
Missouri	Kansas (Kansas City)	26.4	40-14
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO STATE	30.7	45-14
UTAH	B y u	10.0	34-24
T c u	NEW MEXICO	55.0	55-0
SAN DIEGO STATE	U n l v	20.9	42-21
Louisiana Tech	SAN JOSE STATE	14.1	31-17
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	8.9	33-24
FRESNO STATE	Idaho	11.6	38-26

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Temple	MIAMI (O)	27-20	27-16
Thursday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Texas A&M	TEXAS	23-13	20-14
Friday, November 26
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Louisville	RUTGERS	24-21	28-17
Western Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	35-28	38-16
PITTSBURGH	West Virginia	17-14	17-14
ALABAMA	Auburn	31-27	31-28
Buffalo	AKRON	23-20	23-20
TOLEDO	Central Michigan	38-30	41-21
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	45-19	49-17
EAST CAROLINA	S m u	36-34	34-38
Ohio U	KENT STATE	35-23	33-14
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	31-20	27-20
NEBRASKA	Colorado	28-9	23-17
TULSA	Southern Miss.	41-37	44-34
OREGON	Arizona	42-23	41-23
Boise State	NEVADA	42-30	60-31
Saturday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARKANSAS	L s u	31-27	31-20
STANFORD	Oregon State	37-20	38-19
CONNECTICUT	Cincinnati	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA STATE	Florida	30-27	30-27
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	31-20	28-24
North Carolina St.	MARYLAND	24-20	27-17
Iowa	MINNESOTA