The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 24, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 24-28, 2020

All NFL This Week

A minor profit last week led us to a conclusion. In December, our NFL picks have been somewhat more successful than our college picks. The Virus has added an intangible to game outcomes at the college level, while only mildly affecting NFL games. Additionally, once students left schools and finished their semesters virtually at home, the college football players were left isolated on little islands. Rather than desire to play meaningless bowl games for a little compensation of bowl bling, many desired to spend the Holidays at home with family and friends. Other than the Fiesta Bowl, where all players will receive PS5’s, maybe a better prize in their eyes than anything the FBS Playoffs can offer.

The NFL is a totally different story. Week 16 is usually the most crucial week of the regular season. The best teams usually need one more win to secure the playoff spot they will secure or make the playoffs. The eliminated teams begin to experiment with roster changes. The worst teams may sabotage their chances to win meaningless games at the end of the season, especially when there is a generational superstar ready to become the next John Elway.

Before you read this and say, “this will be an easy week!” realize something else. Those clever folks in Nevada with all the positive revenue streams know this bit of information and have adequately padded the spreads to reflect this information.

So, in the end, the spreads are about as accurate in Week 16 as they are in Week 6. And, for our purposes, understanding that the numbers themselves are more important than the names attached to those numbers, we are issuing selections based on trying to “steal” an extra couple of percentage points in our favor. That small gain basically removes the vigorish that the books have. It still boils down to a 50-50 wager, so it is still highly speculative.

Our Christmas gift to you is knowledge. That knowledge is in our case an expert knowledge. Our expertise is knowing that we don’t know enough for you to take these selections and wager real money on the picks. This is an experiment in mathematics to be read for enjoyment and maybe to understand that without real inside information, none of us non-sharps can consistently pick winning selections.

As an FYI, the State of Tennessee legalized sports betting on November 1 of this year. According to Legal Sports Report, in the first 30 days, the citizens of the Volunteer State volunteered a record $131.4 million to the state’s four authorized sports books. Four more sports books, including the giant William Hill, will commence operations in Tennessee in 2021. These companies vacuum up money quickly, as a large majority of their customers get poor slowly. The state is very conservative, and the overwhelming majority disapprove of any tax, yet they willingly agree to pay the state exorbitant taxes in the way of gambling. Try showing this to an average sports bettor, and he or she will laugh at you, telling you that they can win money unlike when they pay taxes. Yet, if you look at their accounts, very few show a profit. We found one person willing to “experiment” for one calendar year. He usually allots himself $2,000 to play during the football season, and in most years, that two grand is gone by Thanksgiving. At the end of 2019, we convinced him to open an account with a broker and deposit the $2,000 and not bet for the 2020-2021 football season. When the Virus outbreak apparently doomed all sports for the year in March, he was able to stick to his convictions, thinking there would be no games to bet that money and lose. Simply reading a few periodicals on value investing, he quickly discovered an equal love for “wagering” on corporations in a sport where the bettor investor has the advantage.

He didn’t lose all his money by Thanksgiving. In fact, by the time he sat down to enjoy his moist and juicy turkey, his investment had already returned close to 18%. As 2020 limps to the finish line, his original $2,000 investment is now pushing $2,400. He doesn’t plan on withdrawing the money or placing the next $2,000 in one of the sports books. If you learn anything from this site, let it be this: If you have a couple decades or more remaining in your pre-retirement lives, or even if you have reached retirement age and figure on sticking around for another score or so, a buy and hold strategy in high-quality value stocks with a long history of positive earnings and dividends is going to make you a lot wealthier than betting on State to beat Tech by 7 1/2 points.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night. Here are our selections for the week.

1. NFL 6 1/2 Point Teaser+160
SelectionOpponentSpread
MiamiLas Vegas+6.5
BuffaloNew England-0.5
New OrleansMinnesota-0.5


2. NFL 7 Point Teaser-130
SelectionOpponentSpread
Tampa BayDetroit-2.5
ClevelandN.Y. Jets-2.5


3. 7 Point Teaser-130
SelectionOpponentSpread
HoustonCincinnati-0.5
ChicagoJacksonville-0.5


4. 10 Point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Kansas CityAtlanta-0.5
IndianapolisPittsburgh+8
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants-1


5. 10- Point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
CarolinaWashington+12
LA RamsSeattle+11
DallasPhiladelphia+12.5

December 18, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 18-21, 2020

A General Malaise

December in the sports wagering world has been about as sickly as the nation and world as a whole, but unfortunately, Pfizer and Moderna are not going to issue sports wagering vaccines to turn losers into winners.

How crazy have things been lately? Look at the most incredible Monday Night Football game in the 51 year history of the event. Baltimore was a 3 1/2 point favorite over Cleveland, and the Ravens led the Browns by three points after a brilliant drive that led to a long field goal. The Browns had one final play to hope for a miracle touchdown or to hope Baltimore committed a defensive 15-yard penalty that would lead to an untimed down and possible field goal to force overtime.

You’ve no doubt seen the dozen lateral play. Unless a large marching band is on the field, the play doesn’t work, because the offense needs a giant tuba player to set an important screen. The 99% of the other times, there are a dozen or so laterals that are fun to watch for 20-30 seconds. The play ends, and the game is over.

Well, this time it was different for the first time in another way. Cleveland ran out of real estate, and the last lateral led to a safety, making the final score a five-point spread. Unlike when a game outcome changes at the end when a team chooses to run the clock play one foot from scoring a touchdown that would change the margin winner or the total, this was totally different. 9,999 times out of 10,000, that part of the wagering public that was already counting their winnings with Cleveland covering, would have actually got those winnings. This was that one other time. Millions and millions of dollars changed on that one crazy play. Local sports talk radio in a state with legalized wagering took time out from coaching search speculation to talk with representatives of MGM and Fan Duel to get the juicy details.

As you know, we at the PiRate Ratings never wager real money on our selections and always recommend that you do the same if you are relying on our selections as real advice. We do this just for the fun of it. In past years, we have enjoyed some spectacular imaginary seasons. We’ve had a couple clinkers as well. This year, we had an imaginary profit entering Thanksgiving, but the last three weeks have seen just enough losses turn the profit to a minor loss for the season. And, unlike the one time Cleveland-Baltimore deal, we have seen our last selection of the week lose after two-thirds of the parlay had won. That last third has done us in. This past week, it was the Giants-Cardinals game. The Giants did us in the week before with the upset win at Seattle. On Thanksgiving, Dallas and Washington couldn’t get their offenses rolling enough.

This week, we joked among ourselves (only crazies like us would laugh at this), wondering if we should change the order of our selections, so that the final NFL game wouldn’t spoil the final third of a parlay. But, then we figured it would only infect the entire card. So, we continue to disbelieve the voodoo that somebody has been doing so well. We’ll call that nemesis, “The Wizard of Laterals.” The talisman that keeps him at bay is “The Gold Tuba.”

Here are this week’s selections. Remember, these are for entertainment purposes only, and we urge you not to wager real money on what you read, even if it’s your Christmas bonus. Save that money to pay for the expensive food on that diet you will begin in two weeks.

Dec 18-21
1. College 6 1/2 point Teaser-120
SelectionOpponentSpread
OklahomaIowa St.+1
Ohio St.Northwestern-13 1/2

2. College 10-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
UtahWashington St.– 1/2
Air ForceArmy+7 1/2
Ole MissLSU+7 1/2

3. College 10-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MissouriMississippi St.+8 1/2
ClemsonNotre Dame– 1/2
MinnesotaWisconsin+22 1/2

4. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Penn St.Illinois-5 1/2
AlabamaFlorida-7
CincinnatiTulsa-4 1/2

5. College Money Line Parlay+138.40
Must WinOpponentSpread
BuffaloBall St.
USCOregon+138.40
Texas A&MTennessee

6. College Money Line Parlay+187.04
Must WinOpponentSpread
MarshallUAB
OklahomaIowa St.+187.04
ClemsonNotre Dame

7. NFL 6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Green BayCarolina-2
IndianapolisHouston-1 1/2

8. NFL 6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
TennesseeDetroit-6
New EnglandMiami+7 1/2

9. NFL 6 1/2-point Teaser-120
SelectionOpponentSpread
Kansas CityNew Orleans+3 1/2
PittsburghCincinnati-6 1/2

10. NFL Money Line Parlay+134.81
Must WinOpponentSpread
Green BayCarolina
TennesseeDetroit+134.81
Kansas CityNew Orleans

11. NFL Money Line Parlay+148.28
Must WinOpponentSpread
IndianapolisHouston
ArizonaPhiladelphia+148.28
BuffaloDenver

December 11, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 11-14, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:12 am

Picking Games That Will Actually Be Played Harder Than Picking Winners

We moved this feature from Thursday to Friday beginning last week, in hopes that we would stop issuing selections only to have them be cancelled later in the day when games in our parlays and teasers were virus victims. So, what happened last week? Literally five minutes after we posted our selections, our number one selection as far as our confidence in thinking it would be a winner, was cancelled.

We cannot possibly send this out an hour before the Noon Eastern kickoffs, so Friday morning is about as late as we can release this weekly feature. Maybe, we should try to predict who will cancel in the final 24 hours before kickoff?

We were quite hesitant to use Tennessee and Vanderbilt in our selections this week, because the Commodores’ roster looks like a retail store about five weeks after they have begun to liquidate with a “going out of business” sale. They have 44 players remaining on the team, but they have just one defensive end left on the roster, and two real linebackers. They have been forced to use small defensive backs at linebacker and offensive linemen in the defensive line. One of the healthy defensive backs, a true freshman and one of the very few 4-star recruits suffered the tragic loss of his mother and has been left with three siblings that he will now become their legal guardian. He’s all of 18 years old.

If you want to contribute something to this family facing a tragic loss of having both father and mother pass away, the four teenage kids could use a little Holiday Season support. For what it’s worth, the Vanderbilt freshman, DeRickey Wright, is not only on athletic scholarship at Vanderbilt, he is on academic scholarship. His three sisters are aged 16, 14, and 10. A Go Fund Me account has been set up to help the family. Rather than ask you not to use our selections here as real betting advice, we ask you to consider donating a little to help this family in their worst time of grief.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/j3m97-wright-family

This Week’s Selections

1. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Arizona St.Arizona-0.5
GeorgiaMissouri-3
NebraskaMinnesota-0.5
2. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Ball St.Western Mich.+8
ToledoCentral Mich.-1
TroyCoastal Carolina+23.5
3. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
North CarolinaMiami (Fla.)+13
TennesseeVanderbilt-5.5
Boise St.Wyoming-1
4. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
FloridaLSU-13
AuburnMississippi St.+3.5
USCUCLA+7.5
5. Money Line Parlay @+131.55
Must WinOpponentOdds
ArmyNavy
Virginia TechVirginia+131.55
6. Money Line Parlay @ +160
Must WinOpponentOdds
UtahColorado
NorthwesternIllinois+160
7. NFL 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
ChicagoHouston+11.5
N.Y. GiantsArizona+12.5
DetroitGreen Bay+17.5

December 4, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 4-7, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:22 am

A Day Late — Hopefully Not A Dollar Short

We are publishing our most popular weekly feature at the PiRate Ratings a day later than normal. Four weeks of issuing some interesting parlays that we had a lot of faith in as winners only to see the games cancel the day that we published them forced us to take an extra 24 hours to try to eliminate the chances that we would see five parlays become void just after putting them out on this forum. Additionally, we tried to avoid games that involved teams that have forewarned that even as late as Friday afternoon, they could decide not to play. Also, there is the case of one team that is in danger of not having enough scholarship players remaining. Their choices would be to fold up operations for the year or play under the 53-man (or in this case 53-man and woman) limit.

Last week, we broke even, which is no fun. Our winning week was just a minute from being guaranteed, until the Baltimore Ravens scored at the end to make that game a push. It happens.

This week, we are stressing money line parlays paying off at better than even money odds. November was very kind to us in these plays, as we made a big fat profit on these better than +100 odds games. We are only going with one NFL selection, but in our statistical minds, it is our best parlay of the entire season–kiss of death!

Before looking at our selections for the week, please remember, that we have lost no money this year or any past year when issuing these selections, because we NEVER wager a penny on them. All of our picks are made with imaginary money at an imaginary book. We do know from your feedback that many of you actually use this site for wagering advice, but we don’t understand why. If you want to throw away hard-earned money because of something you read here, why not just donate that amount to a worthy charity. Our favorite charity with the five lasses that help me here on the PiRate ship is “Save A Fox” in Faribault, Minnesota: https://www.saveafox.org/.

Enjoy the selections, and the way to enjoy them is by keeping your money in your wallet.

College Money Line Parlays
1. 2-teams at +107.96
Must WinOpponentOdds
Miami (Fla.)Duke+107.96
MissouriArkansas

2. 3-teams at +145.28
Must WinOpponentOdds
Western Mich.Eastern Mich.
WashingtonStanford;+145.28
CincinnatiTulsa

3. 2-teams at +173.41
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MAuburn+173.41
Central Mich.Ball St.

4. 3-teams at +124.20 CANCELLED!
Must WinOpponentOdds
KentuckyS. Carolina
Buffalo (BU was en route to Ohio)Ohio+124.20
Iowa St.West Va.

5. 3-teams at +153.92
Must WinOpponentOdds
ToledoN. Illinois
San Diego St.Colorado St.+153.92
NC St.Georgia Tech

6. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
TCUOklahoma St.+11
NebraskaPurdue+11
MemphisTulane+11.5

7. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Fla. AtlanticGa. Southern+12.5
San Jose St.Hawaii+11
OklahomaBaylor-11.5

8. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
NevadaFresno St.+3.5
Oregon St.Utah+21.5
USCWashington St.-2.5

9. NFL 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MinnesotaJacksonvillePk
MiamiCincinnati-1.5
SeattleN.Y. Giants-0.5

November 25, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 26-30, 2020

Holiday Version Coming Out Early This Week

Hello PiRate Patrons. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday this week, we are publishing our selections against the imaginary book in Vegas a day earlier than normal. In the past three weeks, many of the selections we have issued have been cancelled due to Covid-19, and we increased the number of selections well into the teens so that at least 10 selections would actually stay active.

As this is printing a day earlier, and because college games are being postponed, cancelled, and scheduled at the last minute, we are going to issue a whopping 21 selections this week. Because all of our selections are for entertainment purposes only, and no real money is on the line, we can issue as many selections as we want. If we go 0-21, there will be no difference than if we go 12-9 or 21-0. That’s why we beg you not to wager real money on these selections. Our process is all about the numbers and has very little to do with the names attached. We believe the Vegas line knows the teams well enough, so we simply look for percentage advantages through certain numbers.

This week, we are going to include the Tuesday morning game between Charlotte and Western Kentucky. Yes, you heard that correct. The game was originally scheduled for Saturday, but virus issues mandated it be moved or cancelled. Charlotte has not played in forever, so they found it necessary to play this game on Tuesday morning. If it had been a Tuesday evening game, we would have considered it part of next week’s schedule, but Tuesday morning counts like Monday night in our book.

Additionally, you will see something we rarely do. We are going to play a 3-team, 7-point teaser which gives us +130 odds. We have only played this type of wager 3 or 4 times in 20 years.

One final note about today’s selections: we are going with a high odds Money Line parlay that pays out at more than +275. It is a long shot, but we liked the three teams, and our percentages indicate a better than one in three chance that it will win, and at +279.60, the implied percentage is just 26.3%, meaning we believe we have a 7% edge in taking this long shot.

Enjoy the monster numbers of selections. Just don’t wager on them.

Date:Nov. 26-30
College Games Straight Up -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
1. PittsburghClemson+24
2. San Jose St.Boise St.+12
3. Oklahoma CANCELLEDWest Va.-11

4. College 6-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Central Mich.Eastern Mich.-1
BuffaloKent St.-1

5. College 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120 CANCELLED
SelectionOpponentSpread
StanfordCalifornia+8
USCColorado-6 1/2

6. College 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentSpread
FloridaKentucky-16.5
MissouriVanderbilt-9

7. College 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentSpread
IowaNebraska-6 1/2
SMUEast Carolina-5 1/2

8. College 7-point Teaser +130
SelectionOpponentSpread
UTSANorth Texas+3 1/2
NorthwesternMichigan St.-6 1/2
Ole MissMiss. State-2 1/2

9. College 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Notre DameN. Carolina+5
Oregon St.Oregon+23 1/2
Texas A&MLSU-4 1/2

10. College Money Line Parlay +139.10
Must WinOpponentSpread
Boston CollegeLouisville+139.10
IndianaMaryland

11. College Money Line Parlay +126.23
Must WinOpponentSpread
UTSAN. Texas+126.23
Central Mich.Eastern Mich.

12. College Money Line Parlay +103.24
Must WinOpponentSpread
Notre DameNorth Carolina
Oklahoma St.Texas Tech+103.24
AlabamaAuburn

13. College Money Line Parlay +279.67 CANCELLED
Must WinOpponentSpread
Air ForceColorado St.
BuffaloKent St.+279.67
CharlotteWestern Ky.

NFL Straight Wagers -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
14. PittsburghBaltimore-5
15. N.Y. GiantsCincinnati-5 1/2
16. BuffaloLA Chargers-5 1/2

17. NFL 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentSpread
MiamiN.Y. Jets-1/2
LA RamsSan Francisco-1/2

18. NFL 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentSpread
HoustonDetroit+4
DallasWashington+4

19. NFL 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentSpread
IndianapolisTennessee+3 1/2
Kansas CityTampa Bay+3 1/2

20. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MinnesotaCarolina+5 1/2
New EnglandArizona+12 1/2
Green BayChicagoPk

21. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
TeamTeamTotal
DetroitHoustonU 61 1/2
DallasWashingtonO 36
IndianapolisTennesseeO 41

November 19, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 19-23, 2020

Another Winning Week But Disappointment At The End

The PiRate Rating selections for last week came with a caveat that we were not as confident about them in the bigger picture compared to the week before when we had a bonanza profitable week. And, with just the Monday Night game to go, we had already guaranteed ourselves another profitable weekend. Monday Night Football left one leg of a parlay alive. New Orleans and Cleveland had already won to set up a potential +162.57 win if the Ravens took care of New England. Alas, Baltimore laid a major egg, and the Patriots pulled the upset that looked everything like the wrong team was favored. So, instead of a major cleaning of the books, we had to settle with a 22.1% profit on our imaginary investments for the week.

If this is your first time, or you come here every week and see this message, make note that the PiRates NEVER wager real money on these, or any other, selections. We are math nerds that know how to pinch our pennies. This is just for fun and all wagers are pretend only. If you feel compelled to donate a large sum of money to the very wealthy sportsbooks, please reconsider and instead send a bit to our favorite charity–The Old PiRates on Rickety Ships Taking On Water Fund.

Because that nasty little virus has wiped out a bunch of our picks the last few weeks, we limited using the same teams in multiple strategies this week, even though three or four games appeared in every possible wagering situation that we like.

Enjoy–You will enjoy much more if you don’t wager these selections.

Date:Nov. 19-23
1. College 6-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
TulsaTulane-1/2
ArkansasLSU+8 1/2

2. College 6-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
Appy St.Coastal Car.+11 1/2
Arkansas St.Texas St.Pk

3. College 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentOdds
Air ForceNew Mexico-1/2
UTSASouthern Miss.-2 1/2

4. College 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentOdds
OregonUCLA-6 1/2
NC St.Liberty+3 1/2

5. College 10-point Teaser -110
Selection *CANCELLED*OpponentOdds
PurdueMinnesota+7 1/2
MarylandMich. St.+4 1/2
NebraskaIllinois-5

6. College 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
RiceNorth Texas+9
Oregon St.California+13 1/2
AlabamaKentucky-20

7. College 10-point Teaser -110 CANCELLED
SelectionOpponentOdds
San Jose St.Fresno St.+7 1/2
AuburnTennessee-1
WashingtonArizona-1 1/2

8. College Money Line Parlay +168.15
Must WinOpponentOdds
OklahomaOklahoma St.+168.15
RiceNorth Texas

9. College Money Line Parlay +139.47
Must WinOpponentOdds
MissouriS. Carolina+139.47
USCUtah

10. College Money Line +152
Must WinOpponentOdds
Oregon St.California+152

11. College Money Line +147
Must WinOpponentOdds
PittsburghVa. Tech+147

12. NFL 6 1/2 point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentOdds
Kansas CityLas Vegas-1/2
LA RamsTampa Bay+10 1/2

13. NFL 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentOdds
LA ChargersN.Y. Jets+8 1/2
Green BayIndianapolis-1/2

14. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
AtlantaNew Orleans+15
PittsburghJacksonvillePk
CincinnatiWashington+11 1/2

15. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
TeamTeamTotal
DetroitCarolinaO 39
PhiladelphiaClevelandO 37
BaltimoreTennesseeO 39

16. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
TeamTeamTotal
PittsburghJacksonvilleO 36 1/2
MiamiDenverO 35
LA RamsTampa BayO 38 1/2

November 12, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 12-16, 2020

A Week In The Penthouse Doesn’t Mean To Open The Vault

Last week, when we posted the weekly selections, we hinted that we really liked a lot of picks that seemed to tilt the numbers slightly in our favor, or to be more precise, to overcome the percentage vigorish that the selections had on the other side.

We were correct much more often than incorrect last week, and it resulted in a little fake bonanza in imaginary Vegas Book. We hit on three Money Line Parlays at better than +100 odds, and we hit on three of five 10-point teasers to parlay the selections into a better than 30% profit for the week.

There were other selections that became void after last week’s post was published, as games were called off late due to Covid. Eight games are already off the boards this week as this post publishes, and there is a chance that one or more of this week’s choices will be taken off the board as well. We tried to anticipate which games have the greater chances of being cancelled and left them off this week’s consideration list.

Additionally, we eliminated some teams from consideration due to prior Covid concerns that have left these teams with too many weeks off and too many recovering key players. We only really went with one selection where a college team has played just one game so far–Wisconsin.

Our sentiment is that this week is considerably more difficult to isolate favorable selections. We rely more on the numbers than the actual teams in most of our selections, as Nevada rarely misses on lines this late in the season, even in this dysfunctional 2020 season.

What we have favored this week are the lines that help us move through the highest percentage of key numbers, both in spreads and totals for the teasers. We also used our in-house formula for maximizing money line parlay spreads with our own personal ratings and predicted win percentages.

As usual, please read our disclosure: The PiRates NEVER wager real money on these selections. This is strictly a fun exercise with numbers performed by a bunch of numbers’ nerds that just happened to have all played football, but on the other hand, we have all had concussions from playing football, and sometimes we appear to be a bit punch drunk. So, DON’T blow your Christmas Fund on selections you will see below.

That goes for you, Ms. Buckeye in Florida, who didn’t listen to the warning after reading it a zillion times and went and bet big on the Gators at +150 to beat Georgia outright last week. You won last week, so you are very likely to lose this week if you choose one selection from our list.

Date:Nov. 12-16
College 10-point Teasers @-110

1. SelectionOpponentLine
PurdueNorthwestern+12 1/2
Ole MissS. Carolina-1
OregonWash. St.Pk

2. Selection (CANCELLED)OpponentLine
Coastal Car.Troy– 1/2
Fresno St.Utah St.Pk
Ga. SouthernTexas St.Pk

College Money Line Parlays

3. Must WinOpponentOdds
WisconsinMichigan+118.99
RutgersIllinois

4. Must WinOpponentOdds
W. VirginiaTCU
Ga. SouthernTroy+178.70
Ole MissS. Carolina

5. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
UtahUCLA+132.03
IndianaMichigan St.

6. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
Arizona St.California+106.90
OregonWash. St.

NFL 10-point Teasers @ -110

7. TeamTeamTotal
TennesseeIndianapolisO38 1/2
ClevelandHoustonO39
New OrleansSan FranciscoO39

8. TeamTeamTotal
DetroitWashingtonO 36 1/2
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphiaO 34 1/2
MiamiLA ChargersO 38 1/2

NFL Money Line Parlays

9. Must WinOpponentOdds
Tampa BayCarolina+155.57
MiamiLA Chargers

10. Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants+138.24
Las VegasDenver

11. Must WinOpponentOdds
New OrleansSan Francisco
BaltimoreNew England+162.57
ClevelandHouston

November 5, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 5-9, 2020

It’s Time To Go Crazy–With the Picks!

After a so-so week, where our picks went 5-6, but one of the wins was a better than +150 money line parlay, we suffered a minor loss of a few percentage points. We were not all that confident with the choices last week, and we were conservative with the selections. This week, we are going to be liberal with our selections. Using our different formulas, we found 27 different possible selections and narrowed it down to 16. That’s usually the kiss of death; the 11 selections we eliminated will probably go 8-3 or 9-2, while the 16 we chose will go 6-10. It happens all the time.

Just remember this: The PiRates NEVER wager real money on these or any other selections. We don’t even place a quarter in a slot machine when we are inside the State of Nevada.

Our Captain lives in the State of Tennessee, and he wanted to make sure that all of his Volunteer State followers repeat three times, “I will not wager on the selections made by the PiRate Ratings.” Tennessee became the newest state to legalize online wagering on November 1, and there is even a sportsbook in business in Nashville operating exclusively to Tennessee residents. If you are going to patronize this operation, please use other data to make your wagers. We do this just for entertainment purposes only. It’s easier to issue selections when the monetary outcome will be identical no matter what the score of the games.

That aside, here are the themes for this week’s selections. We have this feeling that it is time for the Underdogs to bark loudly. It may not result in a lot of upset wins, but we believe the Dogs are going to have their day against the spread, especially when aided by teaser action.

We also have issued our first big odd Underdog parlay for the season, as well as picking a Dog to win outright in a straight Money Line play.

Finally, headed to where the players can be legally paid for their performances, we have a couple of Money Line parlays, but our biggest theme of the week is our isolation of totals that we played in 10-point teasers. All of these games ran through the key frequent totals, which we feel has given us about a 5-7% edge over the norm.

Enjoy reading and discussing it with friends, but do not take your wallet out of your pocket until you are buying lunch after your friends make a lunch bet, and you side with these ratings.

Date:Nov. 5-9

College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. TempleSMU+18
2. Ga. SouthernTroy+3
3. SyracuseBoston Coll.+14
4. RiceUTSA-4
5. S. CarolinaTexas A&M+10

6. 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
TexasWest Va.-1/2
Kansas St.Okla. St.+18 1/2

7. 7-point Teaser @ +140
SelectionOpponentLine
WyomingColorado St.+3 1/2
San Diego St.San Jose St.-2
OregonStanford-3

8. Money Line Parlay @ +113.83
Must WinOpponentOdds
CincinnatiHouston
Fresno St.UNLV+113.83
UCLAColorado

9. Money Line Parlay @ +122.21
Must WinOpponentOdds
North CarolinaDuke
Miami (Fla.)NC St.+122.21
Fla. AtlanticWestern Ky.

10. Money Line Parlay @ +251.07
Must WinOpponentOdds
Oregon St.Washington St.
CaliforniaWashington+251.07
Parlay cancelled due to UC-UW game
cancellation

11. Money Line Play
Must WinOpponentOdds
FloridaGeorgia+150

12. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +110.23
Must WinOpponentOdds
MinnesotaDetroit
HoustonJacksonville+110.23

13. NFL Money Line Play
Must WinOpponentOdds
Las VegasLA Chargers-105

14. 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
San FranciscoGreen BayO38 1/2
Kansas CityCarolinaO42 1/2
MinnesotaDetroitO42 1/2

15. 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
TennesseeChicagoO36 1/2
DenverAtlantaO40
IndianapolisBaltimoreO37

16. 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
LA ChargersLas VegasO42
MiamiArizonaO38
PittsburghDallasO31 1/2

October 28, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 29-November 2, 2020

Cue-Steve Sabol

This is our annual tradition to publish the fantastic poem written by NFL Films genius Steve Sabol

The Autumn Wind

The Autumn Wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea,
With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weather beaten.
He wears a hooded sash,
With a silver hat about his head,
And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,
A villain big and bold.
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,
As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a raider,
Pillaging just for fun.
He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,
And laugh when he’s conquered and won.

——————————————————————————–

Last week, the Autumn wind might have been a pirate, but it did the PiRates in. It laughed when it conquered and won against our picks. We suffered the second worst week in the history of this column.

For the year, we are now in the red by a small percentage, and quite truthfully, we feel a bit gun-shy this week. The NFL spreads were basically too close to our spreads, or there are too many personnel changes due to injuries and decisions to start new blood.

We are going with 11 selections this week, and 10 of them are college plays. It should be quite obvious by now that you should not even consider using the information here to place actual money on with a sports book. The PiRate Ratings make their selections for purely entertainment purposes only.

Date:10/29-11/2

College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. Kansas StWest Va.+4
2. Michigan St.Michigan+24.5
3. Georgia St.Coastal Carolina+3
4. Ole MissVanderbilt-16
5. N. CarolinaVirginia+6.5

10-point Teasers (3-game parlays at -110)
SelectionOpponentLine
6. WyomingHawaii+11
GeorgiaKentucky-5
Wake ForestSyracuse-1

SelectionOpponentLine
7. TempleTulane+14
Central Fla.Houston+7.5
Notre DameGa. Tech-9.5

SelectionOpponentLine
8. Ole MissVanderbilt-6.5
Texas A&MArkansas-2
AlabamaMiss. St.-20.5

Money Line Parlays
Must WinOpponentOdds
9. CincinnatiMemphis+131.99
Okla. St.Texas

Must WinOpponentOdds
10. Boise St.Air Force+153.96
DukeCharlotte
San Jose St.New Mexico
San Diego St.Utah St.

NFL Straight Wager
SelectionOpponentLine
11. CarolinaAtlanta-2

October 22, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 22-26, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:55 am

Go Big or Go Home But Make Sure You Don’t Bet Your Mortgage!

Every week, we make sure any newcomers to this site understand that our selections on this weekly edition are made strictly for entertainment purposes only. We highly urge you never to wager real money on the picks you see published at this site. We never wager real money; all of our selections are made with our infinite imaginary bankroll.

That said, we know that there are a number of you reading this that will ignore the warning. That is your mistake, so if you have to cash in a Treasury Bond to cover your losses, don’t get mad at us.

Before we get into this week’s selections, let’s quickly review what happened last week. It wasn’t good. A lot of the profits we had accumulated were returned to the imaginary sports book in the imaginary Nevada. We still show a small imaginary profit for the year, but it is infinitesimal. Additionally, the selections that won were different styles of exotic wagers, while what had been most successful earlier in the year, the straight wagers, didn’t perform well.

This week, we are issuing a season high 18 selections. One might postulate that we are really confident this week and decided to issue a lot of selections. Actually, the reverse is true. We are considerably less confident with this week’s selections. We found several “almost good” possibilities and could not narrow the list down to “best” possibilities, as our internal numbers and the folks in Nevada agreed too often. We hoped to be able to play a bunch of Underdogs in the conferences beginning play, but it is like somebody set the odds based on our ratings. Multiple games with teams playing their openers saw the official line and our ratings agree within one point. Some of these lines originated several points off of our ratings, but by Monday night, they had moved to where our ratings had them. In a way, we love this, as it gives us a shot in the arm to know that our ratings are similar to what the Sharps believe. We do know that a handful of Sharps do follow this site, and we are thankful to some really nice people in the Las Vegas-Henderson area that have reached out to us. So, when does the invitation come to spend a week there in the middle of Winter?

Now, it’s time for this week’s selections. We do not really like playing a lot of favorites, but the underdog numbers just didn’t offer a lot of value. You will see that we are playing some games multiple times in different types of wagers. This leads to feast or famine, and in the past, this has offered us a tiny percentage increase in weeks where one or two games met our internal requirements for straight wager, totals, teasers, and/or money line parlays.

Enjoy, but keep your real money in your bank accounts, unless you already planned to wager on the selections you see here.

Date:10/22-10/26
College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. Penn St.Indiana-5.5
2. NavyHouston+14
3. Boston Col.Ga. Tech-3
4. MinnesotaMichigan+3
5. CincinnatiSMU+3
6. Air ForceSan Jose St.-7


7. College 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
OklahomaTCU-0.5
BaylorTexas+15


8. College 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
Penn St.IndianaE
KentuckyMissouri+0.5


9. College 7-point Teaser @ +140
SelectionOpponentLine
AuburnOle Miss+3.5
Okla. St.Iowa St.+3.5
Air ForceS.J. St.E


10. College Money Line Parlay @ +160.60
Must WinOpponentOdds
TulsaFla. Atlantic
OklahomaTCU+160.60
Air ForceS.J. St.


11. College Money Line Parlay @ +169.19
Must WinOpponentOdds
LibertySou. Miss.
Penn St.Indiana+169.19
LSUS. Carolina


NFL Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
12. PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants-4
13. AtlantaDetroit-1
14. DenverKansas City+10


15. NFL 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
PhiladelphiaN.Y. GiantsO35
BuffaloN.Y. JetsO35
WashingtonDallasO35


16. NFL 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
DenverKansas CityO36
New EnglandSan FranciscoO33.5
LA RamsChicagoO35


17. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +190.94
Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants
DallasWashington+190.94


18. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +180.33
Must WinOpponentOdds
Green BayHouston
New EnglandSan Francisco+180.33
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