The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 31, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 31-January 5, 2019

Happy New Year to all our readers

 

This should be the year where we all see clearly.  2020 isn’t 2010 or 2005 when we could all be quite far-sighted, but after this year, we all become nearsighted.  We will be blind in another 70 years!

If that looks like nonsense to you, then you should consider that what follows makes the above look like rocket science.

Once again, we are issuing picks against the spread as entertainment purposes only.  These are not our more scientific Davey19 picks that enjoyed an experimental winning season.  So, please do not wager real money based on what you see below.

Because games are now down to a minimum, we do not have any great teaser or money line parlays through Sunday’s playoff games.  We are going with straight margin selections.  Enjoy, but in order to enjoy, you should keep your wallet in your pockets.

 

 

College Bowl Games

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Virginia Tech

Kentucky

2.5

Va. Tech

Arizona St.

Florida St.

4

Florida St.

Wyoming

Georgia St.

7.5

Georgia St.

Utah

Texas

7.5

Texas

Wisconsin

Oregon

3

Oregon

Tennessee

Indiana

2

Tennessee

 

NFL Wildcard Playoffs

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Buffalo

3

Buffalo

New England

Tennessee

4.5

New England

Seattle

Philadelphia

2.5

Philadelphia

December 26, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 26-30, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — piratings @ 8:48 am

Happy New Year’s To All And To All A Good Slate Of Games

 

Last week, when we made our slim number of selections, they came with a Mount Everest size warning that we didn’t see a lot of value in any potential picks available through Christmas Day.  We warned you like we always do not to select any of our selections for real.  We hope you heeded that warning, because that was about our only accurate prediction we made.

This week, the slate is different.  We do see some value and have been a little bit liberal in our recommended selections.  So, do we need to forego the weekly warning and tell you to open up your accounts and go for broke?  Are you kidding?  NO WAY!

By all means, please heed our weekly warning–DO NOT play with real money when it comes to using the data you see on this website.  We do not bet money on these games, and we should no best about our confidence levels in these selections.

This is for entertainment purposes only, as only a group of math nerds would make.  This is not Davey19 that concluded the season on a huge winning streak and a nice positive return on imagined investment.  That is a system that will continue to undergo experimentation in 2020 to see if the success can be sustained.

We are altering our range of dates for the games this week so that next week there will be an ample amount of college bowl games to play.  Thus, since there will be no college ratings’ updates until the week of the National Championship, and there will be just four NFL games during Wildcard Week, we will issue our next ridiculous selections on Monday for games between New Year’s Eve and the NFL Playoffs on Sunday, January 5 plus one minor bowl game on January 6.

 

College Bowl Game Selections

 

We are going with three games straight up against the spread plus a handful of teaser picks for this next group of bowls.  We find a little more potential value in these picks, not based on trends so far in the bowls (there really haven’t been many), but more because the games appear to offer value in the numbers.

 

Straight Up Against The Spread

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Miami

Louisiana Tech

6.5

Miami

Air Force

Washington St.

2.5

Wash. St.

Mississippi St.

Louisville

4.5

Louisville

 College Bowl Teasers

 

6-point 2 Legs

@10-11

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Pittsburgh

Eastern Michigan

6.5

Pitt

Texas A&M

Oklahoma St.

12.5

Okl St.

10-point 3 Legs

@10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana Tech

Miami (Fla)

3.5

Miami

North Carolina

Temple

14.5

Temple

LSU

Oklahoma

3.5

LSU

10-point 3 Legs

@10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

W. Kentucky

W. Michigan

13

W. Michigan

Illinois

California

3.5

Cal

Florida

Virginia

24.5

Virginia

13-point 4 legs

@10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

USC

Iowa

11

Iowa

Air Force

Washington St.

16.5

Wash. St.

Penn St.

Memphis

20

Memphis

Mississippi St.

Louisville

17.5

Louisville

 

NFL Selections

 

We are going back into our old bag of tricks for this week’s NFL selections.  Somehow, we had let this strategy fall by the wayside for a few years, and honestly, we don’t know why.  This strategy found some success through the years when final weeks of the seasons presented multiple teams still jostling to get into the playoffs, to get byes, and to get home field advantage to the Conference Championships.

This year’s Week 17 presents us with multiple games where one or both teams are playing for something.  The strategy is to go with the team that has the most to gain by winning and then playing them in a teaser of 6, 10, or 13 points.

Additionally, the kickoff times for these games can be important.  If a team plays at 4:25 on Sunday, and the importance of their game rides on what happens at 1:00, then the team in question may no longer have as much to play for it the 1:00 game makes their game inconsequential.  There are two potential games this week where that could affect how much a team will go all out to win a game that just became meaningless.

Both of these games are AFC games.  Oakland plays at Denver in the late afternoon slot.  The Raiders will need at least one team to win in the early time slot from among New England (over Miami), Chicago (over Minnesota), or Detroit (over Green Bay).  Because New England is in a must-win situation in order to guarantee a first round bye, and the Dolphins have little chance of winning in Foxboro, we feel strongly that Oakland will start the game against Denver still alive for the #6-seed.  Therefore, Oakland’s game counts as one with definite playoff repercussion.

On the other hand, Houston and Tennessee presents a different set of circumstances.  This game only means something for the Texans if the LA Chargers upset the Kansas City Chiefs.  Houston can then play to move up a spot from 4th to 3rd and avoid Buffalo in a Wildcard Round.  If Kansas City wins the early game, then the Texans are locked in as the 4th seed.  At the same time, Tennessee has a must-win situation, and the other two teams fighting for the 6th seed are playing late games as well.  Because this game will change greatly if Houston has something to play for, but there is an overwhelming possibility that the Chiefs will be playing to win in the remote chance that New England loses, we cannot include the Texans-Titans game in this grouping.

The Sunday Night game features two teams playing for the NFC West title.  Therefore, no matter what happens in the Saints’ and Packers’ games  earlier in the day, this game will be seriously important.  Therefore, it is one to include in this system.

This strategy has us taking the teams that must win and playing them in teaser parlays.  In the case of the Sunday Night game where both teams have something to play for, the strategy is to take the teaser that gives us the most points, which is obviously a 13-point selection with the underdog.

The other issue is grouping these games so that we could shop around the different books to find the most favorable odds.  Since we are not trying to get you to bet, and we are not being paid as influencers to any particular book, we will not reveal the three different books that we used to select these teasers.

 

NFL Teasers

 

 

6-point 2 Legs

@10-11

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Kansas City

LA Chargers

2.5

KC

Dallas

Washington

4.5

Dallas

10-point 3 legs

@10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

New Orleans

Carolina

3

New Orleans

New England

Miami

5.5

New England

Denver

Oakland

13

Oakland

13-point 4 Legs

@10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Detroit

Green Bay

0.5

Green Bay

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

13

Pittsburgh

N. Y. Giants

Philadelphia

8.5

Philadelphia

San Francisco

Seattle

16

Seattle

 

 

 

December 19, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 21-24, 2019

Not Much, You?

As bowl season commences in college football, in most years, we would be gung ho to issue a multitude of picks against the spread and via the money line.  This is not the case this year.

 

In past years, public momentum has swung wildly to the favored teams enough to move the spreads well past what the favorites could consistently cover.  Both the spreads and money lines moved enough points to make betting the underdog late in the week or nearest the day of the game so much more advantageous.

It is only a hypothesis, but maybe since gambling has basically been legalized in the entire country, and because globally more people are seriously interested in trying to make a quick buck, the public no longer wagers  throws away money to the Sharps like they did in past years.

Normally, we would have quickly seen patterns where Team A opened as a 4 1/2 point favorite and after four or five days, the spread was up to 7 1/2 points.  Money Line favorites opened at -205 and inflated to -325.  At the same time, we rated the games close to a toss-up, so taking the points and wagering on the underdog at inflated money line odds made the outcome over the course of bowl season very profitable.

That just isn’t the case this year.  Almost all the games have been wagered on by the public in a much more reasonable manner.  It’s obvious that people are more apt to do their homework these days, and with the Internet offering volume after volume of information, the smart amateurs have wagered using intelligent strategies.  Thus, there just isn’t a lot of value in the first week of college bowl games.  We have only selected two bowl games out of the first week (through Christmas Eve).  On one of those two bowls, we are playing it two ways, but there is not a heavy dose of confidence in either bowl.

The NFL can be tricky in Week 17.  The teams that have little to play for may begin substituting more freely or even changing their lineups.  Teams near the bottom of the standings needing Joe Burrow in 2020 might see their personnel decisions change just enough to “tank” and lose.  Personally, our motto applies to the 2021 Draft, where some NFL team will “Be clever and tank for Trevor,” because Trevor Lawrence is a once in a generation superstar.  The team that can go 1-15 in 2020 might become a future New England Patriots if they can draft and acquire free agent quality offensive linemen in 2020 and then take Lawrence with the first pick in 2021, while stocking up on receivers to complement him.

That does little to nothing to help us this week, as Cincinnati can already print “Burrow” with the number “1” on a Bengal jersey.

There are a few serious playoff implication games this week, but for the most part, there are few “extra oomph” reasons to locate a lot of value.

The key playoff games this week include:

Tampa Bay vs. Houston–The Texans can clinch with a win over the Bucs, or a loss by the Titans to New Orleans.  Tampa Bay is a hot team finishing the year and has a chance to end up with a winning record.  Houston is in a sandwich situation having beaten the Titans in Nashville last week and having to face them again in Houston next week.

Tennessee vs. New Orleans–The Titans must win their final two games to clinch the AFC South, but they can still get in the playoffs as a Wildcard at 9-7.  For Tennessee’s situation, this is a must-win game.  New Orleans is playing for home field advantage, as they are locked in a tight race for best record in the NFC.  The Saints played on Monday night and now must play on the road.

New England vs. Buffalo–This game really won’t have much effect on the playoffs.  If Buffalo goes to Foxboro and wins, the two teams will be tied in the standings, but the Patriots hold the tiebreaker.  Only if New England then loses to the lowly Dolphins in Week 17, while Buffalo beats the Jets can the Bills win the AFC East.

Seattle vs. Arizona–The Seahawks are playing for both the NFC West title and a first round bye against a Cardinals team that cannot get the first pick of the draft and has little other to play for.  Of course, the entire world sees this and has moved the line appropriately.

Philadelphia vs. Dallas–This is the key game of the week.  Dallas is all of a sudden the darling of the football world after destroying the Rams last Sunday night.  Philadelphia may be the most overlooked playoff contender.  The winner of this game most likely earns the division title, because they both have relatively easy season finales.

Minnesota vs. Green Bay–The Monday night game will go far in determining the Black and Blue Division champion.  Depending on what happens on Saturday and Sunday, Minnesota could still be playing for their Wildcard life if the Rams beat the 49ers.  Green Bay could be playing for a first round bye and even home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  Think of the difference in an NFC Championship Game in January being played at Lambeau Field, The Superdome, Levi’s Stadium, or Century Link Field.  There is quite a difference.  Lambeau could be 20 below zero.  Century Link could be deafening with new record decible levels.  The Superdome will be 72 degrees with a Brees but not a breeze.  Yours truly has kicked field goals of more than 50 yards inside the Superdome.  Depending on the outcomes of Saturday and Sunday, this game could have no considerations by Sunday night.

Now that we’ve given you reasons not to wager based on our selections, please read it one more time:  DO NOT wager real money on our selections that are only meant to entertain the reader.  We NEVER wager real money on our selections–we are math nerds and not Nevada Sharps.

 

PiRate Picks

Bowl Games

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Buffalo

Charlotte

7

Charlotte

SMU

Florida Atlantic

3

SMU

 

 

Money Line Upset Pick at +205

Winner

Loser

Charlotte

Buffalo

 

 

NFL Week 17 Selections

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Tampa Bay

3

Tampa Bay

LA Chargers

Oakland

7

Oakland

Dallas

Philadelphia

2.5

Philadelphia

 

 

Money Line: 2 Legs at +150

Winner

Loser

Miami

Cincinnati

Seattle

Arizona

 

 

Money Line: 3 Legs at +201

Winner

Loser

Pittsburgh

N. Y. Jets

Kansas City

Chicago

Atlanta

Jacksonville

 

 

 

December 12, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For December 12-16, 2019

Davey19 Concludes College Football Regular Season With Second Perfect Slate In 3 Weeks!

Our experimental Davey19 forecast model went 3-0 last week during Conference Championship Week, correctly picking against the spread the AAC, Big 12, and Sun Belt Conference Championship Games.  This led to a final four weeks record of 22-8-1 or 73.3% against the spread, which is smashingly excellent.  It left the Davey19 system well in the black for the season.

We discovered quite early in the year that this system apparently works best on conference games in college football.  It was so-so with non-conference football and totally useless with NFL games.  So, because of that, Davey19 is being shut down for the college bowl season and the remainder of the NFL season.  We will continue to experiment with this system next year when the college teams play conference games, and then if we have another successful year, especially wiping up in November as the sample size increases, we may remove the “experimental” tag from the system name.

 

What you will get for the rest of the season are the regular PiRate Ratings selections, or in other words, the most useless but entertaining picks against the spread and the money line.  We are throwing caution to the wind coming up with picks so out in left field, that they are on top of the roof across the street from old Griffith Stadium in Washington.  For those of you under the age of 85 or not an architectural fan of old demolished baseball parks, it was over 400 feet to left field at Washington’s Griffith Stadium for most of its existence, until players like Harmon Killebrew, Roy Sievers, and Jim Lemon wore Washington Senators jerseys.  Therefore, the roof on top of the building over the left field wall was only reachable by visiting players like Jimmy Foxx and, of course, Mickey Mantle.

FYI: Mantle’s  565 foot blast over the bleachers at Griffith was hit to left-center and landed on Oakdale Street three houses down from the ballpark.  The Yankees’ radio announcer said something to the effect that somebody should get out a tape measure to see how far the blast carried.  Thus, the term “Tape Measure Home Run” was coined.  Additionally, the ball might have traveled several feet more had it not grazed the edge of the football scoreboard.  I would cite the source for this, but this is from aged memory without actually looking it up.

Okay, now that we’ve diverted your attention away from our crazy, goofy, insane, but free picks, here is how we are progressing the rest of the way.  You will receive our expertly “It seemed like a good idea at the time” selections.  Don’t you dare use them to wager real money on games unless you also like to touch live electricity while swimming in a pool.  None of the PiRates have ever wagered a dollar on any of the selections that appear on this site.  While we do know that there are pros, even two Sharps, that use our site for information, they are using our regular weekly ratings and have different algorithms and rules to apply to them to make profits.  These different Sharps are using data completely different from each other, and from one of them (actually somebody in the public eye as a pro), this person plugged numbers into a computer for weeks before discovering this anomaly that led to about 65.2% success against the spread over the last 6 years.  We take great pain to never issue these picks on this site for two reasons.  First, this person told us this in confidence and revealing it publicly means the odds might change and ruin this person’s very hard work.  Second, the minute we recommend these picks, luck will turn the other way and make them stop working.

Therefore, we seldom if ever make straight selections against the spread or the totals that might second what the successful system also chooses.  We have fun devising teaser and money line parlays, looking for the big odds payout.  Davey19 is totally different, as it is a mechanical system for picking conference games in college with occasional non-conference games selected.  While there have been times where Davey19 and the Sharp have selected the same games, we have tried to censor those games from Davey19 when there are enough other games the system chooses.  For instance, one week Davey19 flagged 10 games, but we only issued 7, because the other three were games that the Sharp also keyed.

So, here are our strictly for fun parlays for week 15 of the NFL system.  There have been some highly successful weeks with these picks, but there have been even more losing weeks, so once again, please look at these just for fun and do not wager these selections based on reading them here.

 

10-Point Teasers @ 10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Kansas City

0.5

Kansas City

Carolina

Seattle

4

Seattle

Jacksonville

Oakland

3.5

Oakland

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Arizona

Cleveland

7.5

Cleveland

Dallas

LA Rams

8.5

LA Rams

Indianapolis

New Orleans

1.5

New Orleans

 

 

13-Point Teasers @ 10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Baltimore

N.Y. Jets

29.5

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Chicago

17.5

Chicago

Chicago

Green Bay

8.5

Green Bay

Minnesota

LA Chargers

15.5

LA Chargers

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Minnesota

10.5

Minnesota

San Francisco

Atlanta

24

Atlanta

Pittsburgh

Buffalo

15

Buffalo

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

11

Pittsburgh

 

7-Point Teaser @ 10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

New England

Cincinnati

2

New England

Detroit

Tampa Bay

3.5

Tampa Bay

 

 

Money Line Parlays

#1–1 Game at +435

In other words, this is a major upset pick that we just have a feeling about due to the favorite having played three tough games in a row and an underdog that can score points and plays better on the road than at home.

Winner

Loser

Atlanta

San Francisco

 

#2–2 Games at +156

Winner

Loser

Tennessee

Houston

Philadelphia

Washington

 

#3–2 Games at +198

Winner

Loser

Cleveland

Arizona

Minnesota

LA Chargers

 

#4–3 Games at +224

Winner

Loser

Kansas City

Denver

New England

Cincinnati

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

 

#5–3 Games at +241

Winner

Loser

Green Bay

Chicago

LA Rams

Dallas

New Orleans

Indianapolis

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 26, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 28-December 2, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:08 am

We are putting out this feature a couple days early this week for the obvious reason that in the United States, Thursday is Thanksgiving Day (for those two to three thousand of you reading this from South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia).

We received a request to show you what our results have been in picking games this year.  At first, we felt like this is something that should not be published for two reasons.  First, this is a downright terrible year for our selections, and I am sure that if I took the hours of time needed to calculate pretend money exchange, and then I pretended that each game considered of a $100 base for the wager, that the result would be quite negative.

On the other hand, I have done a couple weeks of calculating, and actually, the results are positive, especially on the Davey19 experimental selections.  And, mostly for this reason, I didn’t want to publish the results, because it would contribute to some guy or gal out there all of a sudden reading this with the false idea that we are smart here on the PiRate ship.  I am an old softie.  I don’t want to imagine somebody reading this post, thinking that this is the best advice since Benjamin Graham wrote The Intelligent Investor, and then proceed to lose the money that would pay for Christmas, their house note, and their car note.

Please, please, please, do not wager real money from information you read on this site.  Does it not speak volumes that nobody here in PiRate Land has ever bet $1 on anything published here?  Actually, the only “betting” any of us have ever done has been made on the premise that contrarian value investing of blue chip stocks will always post positive returns in a 10-year period.  If you want to take any advice from her today, it’s that as early as possible in your lifetime, try to invest regularly in your future and do so by reading as much as you can about what has worked for small individual investors for 130 years.

That said, please take the following with a grain of wet salt.  Last week’s Davey19 selections went 7-0.  Wagering the $100 in imaginary dollars on every game, your return on $700 invested would have been $1,400 with a return on investment of 100%.  

We looked back at the week before, and the Davey19 picks went 4-2-1 for a return on investment of 28.6% (700 invested and 900 returned).

As for the regular PiRate Picks, since each game has a different potential return, we are not going to spend all the time to figure out each week’s return, especially since we don’t want you thinking that we have discovered the elixir that some of the Smarts in Nevada and in the Caribbean drank from.

Last week, if you count each wager as a $100 wager, we issued 5 selections for $500.  The return on the wins at hot odds would have been $637 for a profit of $137 or a return on investment of 27.4%.

Without going back a couple months, I know for sure that some of our weekly picks would have cost you several C-notes.  So, once again, these picks cost you nothing, and you should consider the value to be worth your expense.

Here are our picks for this week.

PiRate Picks

7-point

Teasers

14-10

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Iowa

Nebraska

12.5

Nebraska

Missouri

Arkansas

5

Missouri

Boise St.

Colorado St.

6.5

Boise St.

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Appalachian St.

Troy

6

Appy St.

Illinois

Northwestern

2.5

Illinois

Purdue

Indiana

0.5

Indiana

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Marshall

Florida Int’l.

Pk

Marshall

Charlotte

Old Dominion

1.5

Charlotte

West. Kentucky

Middle Tenn.

1.5

West. Kentucky

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

UTEP

Rice

0.5

Rice

Florida Atlantic

Southern Miss.

1.5

Fla. Atlantic

North Carolina

NC St.

1

North Carolina

 

 

10-point

Teasers

10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas

Texas Tech

Pk

Texas

Ball St.

Miami (O)

13

Miami (O)

Toledo

Central Michigan

0.5

Central Mich.

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Memphis

Cincinnati

1

Memphis

Arkansas St.

South Alabama

3

Arkansas St.

Notre Dame

Stanford

6

Notre Dame

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

North Texas

UAB

10

UAB

Georgia Southern

Georgia St.

17.5

Georgia St.

UCLA

California

12.5

California

 

 

13-point

Teasers

10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Northern Illinois

Western Michigan

4.5

Western Mich.

Miss. State

Ole Miss

16

Ole Miss

Virginia

Virginia Tech

10.5

Va. Tech

TCU

West Virginia

Pk

TCU

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Kentucky

Louisville

16

Louisville

Michigan

Ohio St.

4

Ohio St.

Liberty

N. Mexico St.

0.5

Liberty

Wisconsin

Minnesota

15.5

Minnesota

 

 

Money Line

Parlays

#1  3-Teams

@+227

Winner

Loser

UAB

North Texas

Western Ky.

Middle Tenn.

Texas

Texas Tech

 

 

#2 3-Teams

@+207

Winner

Loser

Virginia Tech

Virginia

Rice

UTEP

Utah St.

New Mexico

 

 

#3 4-Teams

@+211

Winner

Loser

North Carolina

NC St.

Washington

Washington St.

Illinois

Northwestern

Temple

Connecticut

 

 

NFL 7-point

Teaser

14-10

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

8.5

Tampa Bay

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

9

Pittsburgh

Kansas City

Oakland

3

Kansas City

 

 

NFL 10-point

Teaser

10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Detroit

Chicago

7.5

Chicago

Buffalo

Dallas

3.5

Dallas

Carolina

Washington

17

Washington

 

 

NFL 13-point

Teaser

10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Tennessee

Indianapolis

10.5

Indianapolis

Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets

9.5

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

Green Bay

7

Green Bay

Denver

LA Chargers

10.5

LA Chargers

 

 

Davey19

Experimental and Mechanical Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Mississippi St.

Ole Miss

3

Ole Miss

Virginia Tech

Virginia

2.5

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Syracuse

3.5

Wake Forest

Air Force

Wyoming

10.5

Wyoming

Rice

UTEP

6.5

Rice

UAB

North Texas

Pk

UAB

UCLA

California

2.5

California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 21-25, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:45 am

A Narrow Positive

We told you last week that the third week in November had historically been our most successful wagering week of the 21st Century.  Hopefully, this wasn’t a peak, but our selections did turn a small profit yet again on this favorable week of the season.

As far as the fourth week of November, our results over the last several years have been mixed.  Since this is a 5-Saturday November, the typical end of season rivalry games will be next week, so we are hoping that this week will be more typical of past third weeks.

Are you confused?  You shouldn’t be, because in the end, we highly encourage you not to wager based on any information you read here.  You pay nothing for these selections, so you should wager nothing on them.

This week our regular PiRate Picks will go big or go  home.  We are going with parlays that return big odds, and if we can win half of the  parlays, it will be a windfall imaginary profit.

We are also going to take our first 7-point, 3-game NFL Parlay of the season at 7-5 odds.

As for the Davey19 experimental system, we have seven selections against the spread.  Davey19 has been a somewhat positive experiment this year, and last week was another good one as the picks went 4-2-1.  It is experimental, so we cannot vouch for its continued success.  It is strictly mechanical and does not take into consideration the weather forecast and any injury news that came out after Monday’s PiRate Ratings were published.

 

PiRate Picks

Money Line Parlays

 

#1. 3-games at +219

USC over UCLA

UL-Monroe over Coastal Carolina

Stanford over California

 

 

#2. 4-games at +307

Michigan over Indiana

North Texas over Rice

San Jose St. over UNLV

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

 

 

#3. 5-games at +297

Oklahoma St. over West Virginia

Wake Forest over Duke

Louisville over Syracuse

Georgia St. over South Alabama

Georgia over Texas A&M

 

 

#4. 4-NFL games at +435

Houston over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Denver

Oakland over N.Y. Jets

New England over Dallas

 

 

#5. 3-Game, 7-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Indianapolis

10.5

Indianapolis

New Orleans

Carolina

1.5

New Orleans

Dallas

New England

0.5

New England

 

 

Davey19 Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Wyoming

Colorado St.

6.5

Wyoming

Iowa

Illinois

15.5

Illinois

Ball St.

Kent St.

3.5

Kent St.

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

4

Virginia Tech

Nebraska

Maryland

4.5

Nebraska

Missouri

Tennessee

4

Tennessee

Fresno St.

Nevada

14

Nevada

 

 

November 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 14-18, 2019

Your 1962 New York Mets of Selections

The lovable 1962 New York Mets won 40 games in their initial season in Major League Baseball.  There were a couple of star players, and the rest of the roster belonged in the International League.  

That’s how our selections have fared this year.  A couple of times, we came up with some incredible wins on some long shot picks, but the rest of the time, our picks belonged in the bush leagues.

The good thing about the Mets was that eventually 1969 came, and they performed miracles in winning the World Series.  Of course, having player development that brought them Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, Cleon Jones, Jerry Grote, and Bud Harrelson, as well as some nice acquisitions in Tommie Agee and Donn Clendenon, made their roster quite strong.  The PiRate Ratings have not developed any young talent in the last few weeks with hopes that a wagering week like 1969 will create a second miracle.

On the other hand, this has historically been the week that our ratings have enjoyed the most over the last 10 years.  The third week of November has brought us our highest return on imaginary investment (our picks are for entertainment purposes and never actually wagered on by us) of the season.

Three years ago, we hit on some outrageous parlays and outright picks against the spread, making a slight ROI on the year into a windfall profit margin.  Two years ago, we turned a slight deficit on the year into a nice profit that when combined with the bowl season gave us another year in the black.  Last year, we went from large deficit to almost break even after this week.

You can see the trend.  Every year, this week turned the momentum in our direction, but each year, this week reversed more malaise than the previous season.  In 2019, we find ourselves so deep in the whole that even the best ever finish on this week will still leave us well in the red.

So, remember, even though  this week has been rather successful for us in the past, please DO NOT WAGER your money on what you will read below.  If we have not faith in these picks, why should you?

Disclaimer: This does not apply to those handful of Smarts that somehow take our spreads and other data and make money off them somehow in Nevada and in the Caribbean.  How you do it, we do not know.  But, we do know that a group of Smarts uses our ratings and consistently beats the books.  

This week, we are going to issue a few less choices overall, but this is because we feel the heat on us.  This has been a winning week so many times for us that we spent an extra 10 minutes or so per selection looking them over.  We found a couple of special teasers that cross over the important spread numbers.  We isolated on some money line parlays that we feel strong about.

As for our experimental Davey19 system, the biggest difference in the line and its predicted score just so happened to pop up this week.  There is a reason for this.  The oddsmakers definitely consider psychological factors when making the line.  Davey19 has no personality.  Davey is a computer program with no emotion.  

What game are we talking about?  The Iowa-Minnesota game in Iowa City has the Gophers playing on the road in a tough environment coming off their monumental home win over Penn State.  The oddsmakers have Iowa favored in this game as a trap for Minnesota.  Davey19 strictly picks games when its experimental spread differs from the line by more than 3.5 points.  Davey19 says Minnesota is a touchdown better than Iowa at Kinnick Stadium.  That’s a full 10 points different.  Minnesota might indeed suffer a letdown, but 10 points of letdown is a lot.  And, the Gophers aren’t just playing a game following an upset win.  They have a lot more to play for now.  They have the Playoffs in their sites, and for now, every game is the biggest game in school history since Sandy Stephens, Roger Hagberg, and Bobby Bell played for the #3 Gophers against #1 Iowa in 1960.  Yes, this is the biggest game in Minnesota history since they played Iowas 59 years ago and basically secured the national championship with a convincing win over the #1 team.

Without further adieu, here are our picks for the week.

 

PiRate Picks

College Money Line Parlays

 

#1–3 Games at +142

Winner

Loser

Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech

Georgia Southern

UL-Monroe

Middle Tennessee

Rice

 

#2–3 Games at +148

Winner

Loser

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

Florida

Missouri

Kansas St.

West Virginia

 

#3–4 Games at +133

Winner

Loser

Michigan

Michigan St.

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

Duke

Syracuse

Texas A&M

South Carolina

 

#4–2 Games at +134

Winner

Loser

Notre Dame

Navy

Georgia

Auburn

 

#5–3 Games at +151

Winner

Loser

Memphis

Houston

Air Force

Colorado St.

Louisville

N. Carolina St.

 

NFL 10-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Denver

0.5

Minnesota

Oakland

Cincinnati

0.5

Oakland

Chicago

LA Rams

3.5

LA Rams

 

NFL 13-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

16

Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay

New Orleans

7.5

New Orleans

Atlanta

Carolina

7.5

Carolina

Washington

N.Y. Jets

14.5

N.Y. Jets

 

Davey19

An Experimental College Football Selection System

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

San Diego St.

1

San Diego St.

Ball St.

Central Michigan

2.5

Ball St.

USC

California

6.5

USC

TCU

Texas Tech

3.5

Texas Tech

Southern Miss.

UTSA

17

UTSA

LSU

Ole Miss

21

Ole Miss

Iowa

Minnesota

3

Minnesota

 

 

 

November 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 7-11, 2019

Welcome to Thursday Comedy Relief.  It’s official now: this is the worst season in the 21st Century for PiRate Picks.  As we always tell you, these picks are free and maybe not worth what you pay for them.  In past years, we have had better access to information that has been unavailable to us, and so these picks are not going to be as reliable as when we were actually winning consistently.

We know that some of you reading this have discovered the little “secret” system in our regular weekly ratings that through super computer programming, you can come up with a half-dozen or so picks that are rewarding you with better than 62% wins.  It’s so secret, that we do not know the real particulars, and we unwisely recommended that you not tell us how you are doing it, because it might be too tempting to try it ourselves and then lose our mortgage payments (figuratively, since we burned our mortgage some time ago).

This is the absolute best week for college football to date.  This week’s games between Alabama and LSU, preceded by Minnesota and Penn State, and including Baylor-TCU, Iowa State-Oklahoma, and even including the best FCS game of the year and the celebration of the 150th anniversary of college football–undefeated Princeton versus undefeated Dartmouth at Yankee Stadium, we know that a lot of you love to add a little excitement when watching these top games.

Please, please, please, disregard our selections when considering whether or not you will wager on these games.  We are hitting 48% in our selections this year.  That’s total crappy status.  You cannot win at 48%, because even if you wager the exact opposite, at 52% you still lose.  None of your reading this feature are one of those folks with the supercomputer winning on 63+% of the wagers that our ratings somehow pop up 6-10 games per week, and our selections below are not part of that system.

 

This Week’s PiRate Picks

College Games

10-point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida St.

Boston College

11

Boston College

Ohio St.

Maryland

32

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Illinois

24.5

Illinois

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Vanderbilt

16.5

Florida

Ole Miss

N. Mexico St.

38.5

N. Mexico St.

Kentucky

Tennessee

11

Tennessee

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Georgia

Ole Miss

6.5

Georgia

Virginia

Georgia Tech

26

Georgia Tech

BYU

Liberty

27

Liberty

 

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas Tech

West Virginia

15.5

West Virginia

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

19.5

Louisville

Wake Forest

Virginia Tech

15.5

Virginia Tech

Penn St.

Minnesota

20

Minnesota

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Northwestern

Purdue

15.5

Purdue

Charlotte

UTEP

Pk

Charlotte

Baylor

TCU

10.5

TCU

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

1.5

Oklahoma

 

College Money Line Parlay –4 games at +268

 

Winner

Loser

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

Fresno St.

Utah St.

Notre Dame

Duke

Washington

Oregon St.

 

NFL Games

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Oakland

14.5

Oakland

New Orleans

Atlanta

Pk

New Orleans

Cincinnati

Baltimore

3

Baltimore

Carolina

Green Bay

8

Green Bay

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Chicago

Detroit

15.5

Detroit

Miami

Indianapolis

2.5

Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

10.5

N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay

Arizona

17.5

Arizona

 

Money Line Parlay –2 Games at +149

 

Winner

Loser

N.Y. Giants

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Carolina

 

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Coastal Carolina

14.5

Coastal Carolina

Michigan St.

Illinois

15

Illinois

Boise St.

Wyoming

13.5

Wyoming

Alabama

LSU

5.5

Alabama

Troy

Georgia Southern

3

Georgia Southern

Kentucky

Tennessee

1

Tennessee

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

5

Louisiana Tech

 

 

October 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 24-28, 2019

It couldn’t last.  Our winning streak ended soon after it began, and both the PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks fell to the losing side last week.  We’re back at it again hoping that maybe if you see a game you have thought about wagering real money on the outcome, you will see that we agree with you, and you will quickly forget playing that game.

Remember, the PiRates do not wager real money on football games, and we encourage you not to use our picks as handicapping aids if you happen to play for real.  These picks are free and are priced exactly where they need to be.

PiRate Picks

This week, we add a new twist that hasn’t been shown here in several years.  We are going to make a few 6-point teaser picks (2-game parlays @ 10-11 odds)

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

4

UConn

Memphis

Tulsa

4.5

Memphis

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

4.5

Texas A&M

Iowa

Northwestern

4

Iowa

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Miami (Fla.)

Pittsburgh

0.5

Pittsburgh

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

5.5

Arkansas St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

SMU

Houston

4

SMU

Central Michigan

Buffalo

7.5

Buffalo

Purdue

Illinois

20

Illinois

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Liberty

Rutgers

17

Rutgers

Rice

Southern Miss.

0.5

Southern Miss

Wyoming

Nevada

4

Wyoming

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

4.5

Fresno St

Georgia Southern

N. Mexico St.

4.5

Ga. Southern

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

0.5

Iowa St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Ohio

Ball St.

7.5

Ball St.

Oklahoma

Kansas St.

13.5

Oklahoma

Minnesota

Maryland

6.5

Minnesota

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas

TCU

11.5

TCU

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

4.5

Ohio St.

LSU

Auburn

0.5

LSU

 

College 13-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Troy

Georgia St.

12

Georgia St.

Penn St.

Michigan St.

19.5

Michigan St.

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

10.5

Fla. Intl

South Carolina

Tennessee

17.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Washington

6.5

Minnesota

N.Y. Giants

Detroit

3

Detroit

Tampa Bay

Tennessee

7.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Chicago

6

Chicago

N.Y. Jets

Jacksonville

4

Jacksonville

Philadelphia

Buffalo

8.5

Buffalo

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Rams

Cincinnati

3

LA Rams

New Orleans

Arizona

0.5

New Orleans

Oakland

Houston

3

Houston

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Indianapolis

4.5

Indianapolis

New England

Cleveland

3

New England

Miami

Pittsburgh

4.5

Pittsburgh

 

Davey19 Selections

College Picks Against The Spread

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

10

UMass

Purdue

Illinois

10

Illinois

Central Florida

Temple

11

Temple

Buffalo

Central Michigan

2.5

Buffalo

Liberty

Rutgers

7.5

Rutgers

Marshall

Western Kentucky

5

Western Kentucky

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.5

Oklahoma St.

Ball St.

Ohio

2.5

Ball St.

North Texas

Charlotte

4.5

Charlotte

 

Note: For those of you that play for real, please be aware that in both college and pro football this weekend, Miami is playing Pittsburgh at Heinz Stadium.  Don’t confuse the games on the card.

The Pitt Panthers and Miami of Florida Hurricanes face off Saturday at Noon Eastern Daylight Time.  The Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night at 8:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

 

And, as a reminder, next Sunday’s NFL games will kick off in Standard Time.  Daylight Savings Time goes to bed Sunday morning at 2 AM, November 3.  It never ceases to amaze us as to how many 9 to 5 workers fail to notice that one of their car’s headlights, taillights, brake lights, or signal lights is not working, until after the clocks are set back in the Fall, and they drive home from work in the dark. 

Please check all your lights before you turn your clock back an hour.  Darkness at 4:30 PM always leads to increased traffic accidents in large cities, so play it safe and prepare by becoming a better defensive driver.  The life you save, may be mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 17-21, 2019

Hooray, Hooray!  Maybe our little ditty we recited at the beginning of last week’s picks really worked!  That ditty went this way, “Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!”  It has to do with a childhood saying, and it worked then and apparently worked last week.

Both our PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks won.  The PiRate Picks enjoyed a windfall weekend with big wins.  Another 6 or 7 weeks in a row just like this, and we might even get back to level in our imaginary bank accounts.

While we have been trying to issue our money line parlay picks on Friday, we have a Thursday night game that is included in our selections, we have to issue those picks today as well.

Remember, the PiRates never wager real money on the outcomes of these games, and we also remind you that you frequently get what you pay for, and this is totally free.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers, 3 Game Parlays

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Arkansas St.

17

Arkansas St.

Ohio

Kent St.

17.5

Kent St.

Utah St.

Nevada

31

Nevada

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

California

Oregon St.

21

Oregon St.

Washington

Oregon

7

Oregon

South Carolina

Florida

15.5

Florida

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

9

Southern Miss.

Auburn

Arkansas

29

Arkansas

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

13.5

North Carolina

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Iowa St.

Texas Tech

17

Texas Tech

Rice

UTSA

14.5

UTSA

SMU

Temple

17.5

Temple

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Kansas City

7

Kansas City

N.Y. Giants

Arizona

13

Arizona

Houston

Indianapolis

10

Indianapolis

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Detroit

11

Detroit

Green Bay

Oakland

15.5

Oakland

LA Rams

Atlanta

13

Atlanta

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Seattle

Baltimore

13

Baltimore

Philadelphia

Dallas

7

Dallas

New England

N.Y. Jets

20.5

N.Y. Jets

 

 

Money Line Parlays

 

All 3-game parlays 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Oregon

Washington

Penn St.

Michigan

+188

Western Ky.

Charlotte

 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

Western Mich.

Eastern Mich.

+193

Boise St.

BYU

 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Stanford

UCLA

Florida

South Carolina

+224

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Margins Plays

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Kent St.

Ohio

+7.5

Boise St.

BYU

-6.5

Oregon

Washington

-2.5

Florida

South Carolina

-4.5

North Carolina

Va Tech

-3

Hawaii

AFA

+3

Houston

Indianapolis

+1

Oakland

Green Bay

+5.5

Washington

San Francisco

+10.5

LA Chargers

Tennessee

+2.5

 

Totals Plays

 

Team

Team

Total

Pick

UCLA

Stanford

52.5

Under

Georgia Tech

Miami (Fla.)

46

Under

Florida St.

Wake Forest

69

Under

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

57

Under

Tennessee

LA Chargers

40

Under

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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