The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 24, 2018

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl Teaser

We come to the last football picks post of the season.  The PiRates stayed away from the college bowl season and the NFL playoffs to this point, but we are staring at a little deficit for the season.

For three consecutive years, the PiRate Ratings earned a “profit” with our “imaginary” bank roll.  Wagering an equal fake $100 on every selection, we have enjoyed two marvelous seasons and one minor success in the last three years.

The 2017-18 season brought us back down to Earth, but a late surge brought the losses to the point where one final win would give us a winning season even more miraculous than the Jets beating the Colts in SB III.

So, with that in mind, we issue our final selection for the football season.  And, it is not even a money line selection like almost all of our picks.  We go back to a 10-point teaser parlay, something that used to give us some success, but something we got away from when we became rather lucky with money line parlays.

Because our computer ratings and simulations show this game to be as tight as it can be, and the standard deviation of our simulations comes in rather lean, we believe it is possible to make four picks in this game and combine them into a 4-event parlay at +136 odds.  The deficit sits at $-146, so a win would make a 3% loss become a 2% profit for the year.

So, without further adieu, here is our pretend final play of the season.

The wager for this game is doubled to $200.

SUPER BOWL 52 Pick

Super Bowl 52  Sunday, February 4, 2018 6:30 PM EST 
10-point teaser 
 $200 on 4-team parlay @ +136 $200 wins $472
Team 1 Team 2 Number
New England Philadelphia +4.5
Philadelphia New England +15.5
New England Philadelphia Under 57.5
New England Philadelphia Over 37.5
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PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Super Bowl 52: February 4, 2018

While we have taken a break from doing expanded NFL coverage for this season due to the overwhelming number of you that have indicated your political opposition to the league’s policies or lack thereof, we will expand our coverage just a tad today for Super Bowl 52, but we promise to do it in a tactful way and focus on the real true hero that will be appearing in this game.

You, our patrons, represent an excellent microcosm for football fandom.  The NFL is off a good 10% in television viewership, and pictures of the weekly games have shown all stadiums with more and more empty seats.  The so-called Mainstream Media, with the exception of Fox News, and the top conservative radio hosts like Laura Ingraham, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Michael Savage, blame the increasing decline on things like the high number of concussions, the outlawing of two sports fantasy sites, cord cutting, bad games, and the retirement of Peyton Manning.  Last year, they blamed the Presidential election on the decline, but the decline continued this year, and there was no election.  We all know why a large number of former fans are now former fans and may possibly be permanently former fans.

Read our editorial at the conclusion of this feature.

Super Bowl 52

New England Patriots (15-3-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (15-3-0)

Date: Sunday, February 4, 2018

Site: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Scheduled Kickoff Time:  6:30 PM EST/5:30 PM CST (local time in Minneapolis)

TV & Announce Crew: NBC with Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth, Heather Cox, and Michele Tafoya

Radio & Announce Crew: Westwood One with Kevin Harlan and Boomer Esiason

Current Las Vegas Line (on 1/24/2018): New England by 5 1/2

Money Line: New England -220, Philadelphia +180

Total: 47 1/2

The PiRate Ratings Spreads

If you are a new patron to this site, we issue three separate ratings for college and NFL football.  Each rating is a different algorithm based on the same statistical data.

PiRate: New England by 0.3

Mean: New England by 1.5

Bias: Philadelphia by 0.3

Total: 42

100 Computer Simulations 

Every year, we run 100 computer simulations with the help of a college statistics professor’s program.  This might be the last year we can do this, because said professor may move at the end of this term.

If you think last year’s game was exciting, being the first of 51 to go to overtime, you haven’t seen anything yet if the computer is accurate this year.  We’ve never seen a playoff game this close since our simulations began 16 years ago.

Number of New England Wins: 50

Number of Philadelphia Wins: 50

Average Score: New England 22.52  Philadelphia 21.90

Median New England Score: 21

Median Philadelphia Score: 21

New England’s Standard Deviation: 7.04

Philadelphia’s Standard Deviation: 5.04

New England Outlier Win: Pats 38 Eagles 17

Philadelphia Outlier Win: Eagles 30 Pats 14

 

Our Super Bowl 52 MVP (even before kickoff)

You can have Bill Belichick and Doug Pederson as role models.  Maybe you want to look up to Nick Foles or Tom Brady.  However, we at the PiRates Stand Up to admire referee Gene Steratore.  Steratore lives in the Pittsburgh area.  He has been a single parent for close to 20 years.  He owns with his brother (also an NFL Official) a successful and reputable janitorial supply company.  Call this a testimonial, but since delving into his life a bit more, we have decided to purchase some products from Steratore Sanitary Supplies (steratoresanitary.com).

Steratore is also one of the top NCAA basketball officials, doing a large number of Big Ten games as well as NCAA Tournament games.  He may be the best two-sport star you have hardly heard about.

Steratore gets excellent ratings in both sports; his business is outstanding; and he deserves some mention in Father of the Year discussions.

Our hats and hearts go out to such a fine outstanding American, one who believes in hard work as the way to succeed.  You won’t find Steratore making a public statement by dishonoring the flag of the United States of America.

We like to refer to a joke that former President Ronald Reagan made 30+ years ago.  He joked about how Cuba has the same rights as the United States.  In the USA, a citizen can stand up on a street corner and issue his dislike and opposition to the President of the United States.  In Cuba, a citizen can also stand up on a street corner and issue his dislike and opposition to the President of the United States.

Definitely, American citizens have the incredible gift from its founding fathers’ documents that allow them to express their opposition to the government and its laws.  The Bill of Rights belongs as the second document that should be included in the Governing Hall of Fame (Magna Carta number one).

The Flag and the National Anthem of the United States are not members of government.  They are a testament to citizens of this country having the right to publicly oppose and also seek public office ourselves.  Opposing the flag and anthem are indications that a person does not have allegiance to the Constitution of the United States of America.

When NFL players make protests of the anthem and flag, and then the NFL steps into it deeper by refusing to carry a patriotic advertisement (not a freebie either) due to political reasons, this is a line of bunk in the opinions of all 6 PiRates.

How more political can past Super Bowl advertisements, especially last year’s game, be?  Do you remember the Annheiser Busch ad where the original Busch faced all types of hatred from others when he immigrated to this country?  It was sad that Mr. Busch faced trouble when he first moved to the USA (if this is accurate).  However, the timing of this ad when the hot topic of the day was how to deal with illegal immigration created a Budweiser Boycott that has now made the giant corporation reconsider if they will remain a sponsor of the league going forward.

Audi, Coca-Cola, Airbnb, and a hair care company that we cannot remember the name, all ran political ads, ads that offended some part of the population.

How can being patriotic and loving the principles that this country was founded on be considered political, unless it is a covert way of stating that the NFL represents an opposition to our principles of existence, thus implying they lack allegiance to our country?

None of us on the PiRate Ship will watch or listen to the Super Bowl.  We have chosen not to watch or listen to any games all year.  And before, you say we are 100% pro-President Trump or right wing conservatives, 3 of the 6 PiRates voted for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Primaries.  2 of the 6 supported other GOP candidates that did not win.  The 6th was as usual 100% behind a third party candidate.

However, on the 20th day of January, 2017, all six of us prayed for the well-being of our country, and prayed for the health and well-being of our President and Vice President.  We are 100% behind the system as it was determined in our Constitution.  The flag and anthem are relatives of the Constitution.  You may support no politicians in power today, or you may love them or some of them, but if you do not love your country and do not have 100% allegiance to it, then you are not a real citizen of the country.  If you want to make change to the current status, then do it by playing by the rules laid out in the great document that allowed this nation to continue to exist after 241+ years.

One more thought: this is baseball’s best opportunity to reclaim its birthright as our national pastime.  The 2016 and 2017 baseball seasons were incredible ones, and 2018 might be the best one since six divisional play began.  The New York Yankees and New York Mets should bring fans into the park in larger numbers, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels have great attractions to make it banner years at Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium of Anaheim.  The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals will have to hold off the Milwaukee Brewers in what should be an exciting race.  The Cleveland Indians may make a run at their all-time wins record of 111 in 1954, after winning 102 last year and getting better in the off season.  Then, you have the best team statistics can create in the reigning world champion Houston Astros.  If new Angels’ two-way player Shohei Otani more closely resembles Wes Ferrell than Clint Hartung, then the AL West race should be quite interesting.  This looks like the year to come back to baseball if you haven’t sampled the excitement in recent years.

 

November 30, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for December 1-2, 2017 (with 10-point teasers)

For those of you still following this weekly feature, we’ll buy and read your book you will write dealing with masochism.  This has been a lousy year for the PiRate Picks.  This week, there are not enough college games to put together many Money Line parlays, so we are dusting off and bringing out of mothballs our former claim to fame to give us 4 plays–10-point teasers.

For those of you who are not wise to a 10-point teaser, this type of play allows the player to move the point spread or totals number by 10 points in either direction and then play a parlay at certain odds.  We like to combine either 3 teams at -110 or 4 teams at +136 odds, and this week, we have two 4-game parlays at +136.

Thus, a winning week can be had with a 2-2 record, and at 3-1, it can be a very profitable week.  At 4-0, we get out of the red and into the black.  At 1-3 or 0-4, we take more Maalox.

Remember this most important aspect to this weekly feature–all our picks are just for fun, and we never wager real coin or currency or Bitcoins on these picks. We suggest you do the same as well.

#1 @ +273  
Must Win Must Lose
USC Stanford
New Mexico St. South Alabama
Clemson Miami
Oklahoma TCU

 

#2 @ +230  
Must Win Must Lose
Wisconsin Ohio St.

 

#3 10-point teaser +136  
Clemson Miami Under 57
Wisconsin Ohio St. Under 62
Florida St. UL-Monroe Under 75
Oklahoma TCU Under 73.5

 

#4 10-point teaser +136  
Stanford USC Under 69
Florida Atlantic North Texas Under 84
Central Florida Memphis Under 92
Auburn Georgia Under 58

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 21, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 21-25, 2017

Ugh!  After a nice streak of winning weeks to get us into the black, albeit by a sliver, our picks wore the collar last week.  Now, we are 9% in the red with just a couple weeks left to go to try to make it three consecutive winning seasons.  Boycotting the NFL picks has really hurt us this year, but that had to be done.

Maybe with 5 picks this week, we can hit on something that we have not been able to do well in the last few years–hit big on rivalry week.  In past years, we have played it safe and issued only one or two parlays on this week.  When a 2-9 team plays its 9-2 rival, the outcome isn’t as cut and dry as the week before when 2-8 played 8-2 in a non-rivalry game.

We only went with five games to throw a lot of darts on the board and hope we can somehow come out with a high enough score to win.  We need to win any three of these parlays to put us back in the black for the year, but winning three of five during rivalry week is crazy.  So, if we do, it is more pure dumb luck than our strategy.

As always, this is just an exercise for fun among one PiRate Captain and his 5 lasses.

Date
Nov 21-25
#1 @ +147  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Kent St.
Florida Int’l. Western Ky.
   
#2 @ +137  
Must Win Must Lose
Texas Texas Tech
Tennessee Vanderbilt
   
#3 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
La.-Lafayette Georgia Southern
Florida St. Florida
Clemson South Carolina
   
#4 @ +154  
Must Win Must Lose
North Texas Rice
Middle Tenn. Old Dominion
Alabama Auburn
Wisconsin Minnesota
   
#5 @ +156  
Must Win Must Lose
Eastern Mich. Bowling Green
Georgia Georgia Tech
Northwestern Illinois
Virginia Tech Virginia
San Diego St. New Mexico

 

November 16, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 16-18, 2017

After a winning week with a modest 35% return on our investment, the PiRate Rating Money Line Parlays are just a fraction below break even for the season.  We are submitting three selections this week, with the odds being a tad lower in hopes that at least two of these three will win and put us back in the black for the season.  There are numerous trap games this week, so we chose to lay off about 35 of these games that could have been used to produce parlays in the +180 to +235 range.  The problem is that in just about every case, we were split on one of the games in the possible parlay.  For instance, the Western Kentucky-Middle Tennessee game found us divided at 3 to 3.  Either way, we could have used this parlay to produce a nice fat odds in our favor, but none of us are steadfast in our belief in the team we believe will win.  You can put a ditto on Wake Forest and North Carolina St.  We were 3-3 on that game too.

What you do receive this week are three parlays in which we were 6-0 on all but one game, and 5-1 on the other (NW-Duke).

Here are our 3 selections for the week.  REMEMBER: we issue these selections only for entertainment purposes and NEVER wager real currency on these picks.  We advise you follow our lead.  If you are a professional “player” and will play regardless, please use these selections as only one source for your investing ideas.

#1 @ +136  
Must Win Must Lose
Georgia Tech Duke
West Virginia Texas
******************** ********************
#2 @ +165  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Minnesota
South Alabama Georgia Southern
Missouri Vanderbilt
********************  ********************
#3 @ +122  
Must Win Must Lose
Utah St. Hawaii
Old Dominion Rice
Idaho Coastal Carolina

November 9, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 9-11, 2017

The Captain has regained control of the helm, and he is steering the PiRate ship once again.  Actually, the lasses suffered a loss last week, and they were too shy to come up with any parlays this week.  The Captain on short notice was only able to create two parlays, as he believes this may be a week to look at other wagering philosophies with several key games being played.

If you are new to this site, this weekly feature picks money line parlays that go off at better than +120 odds.  As a general rule, we look for 3-game parlays, but in some cases (like today), we will combine four or more games, and in fact, we once issued a 7-game parlay at +225 odds and won the wager.

Here are this week’s two parlay selections.  As always, consider this when deciding how you will make use of this publication: No PiRate booty has been jeopardized in the making of this feature.  We only play with pretend currency when selecting our parlays.

#1 @ +170  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Purdue
South Carolina Florida
Southern Miss. Rice
#2 @ +157  
Must Win Must Lose
Pittsburgh North Carolina
Florida Int’l. Old Dominion
Missouri Tennessee
Middle Tenn. Charlotte

 

 

November 2, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 2-6, 2017

The PiRate Captain had to send up the white flag after his lasses staged a successful mutiny two weeks ago. Much to his chagrin and ego, the ladies proceeded to come up with back-to-back weeks of pillaging of the Vegas vessels.

Last week, they brought in enough booty to send the SS Fortune into the black for the season. They proceeded to return a profit on the investment of a whopping 147%, missing out on going a perfect 4 for 4 by one play in overtime in the Appy State-U Mass game.  For the season, the PiRate Account is now in the black with a very modest 1% ROI.

The Captain will note that in the previous two seasons, the period from the last of October to the first of December followed the same MO–the selection results went from red numbers to black numbers and clinched a profit for the overall seasons.
Now, the lasses are lobbying to change the name of the PiRate ship to Queen Anne’s Revenge. The Captain is worried that five swollen heads on the lovely ladies could lead to a return of some booty to the Nevada books, but the ladies are overly confident that they have zeroed in using their superior female intuition.

Once again, the ladies picked the teams they thought had the best chance of winning outright but at the same time went off as small favorites, total tossups, or even slight underdogs. The Captain merely served as their accountant, putting together the best possible parlays as far as favorable odds go, thanks to his knowing which of the 2 dozen reputable books had the best overall odds.

 
The PiRate lasses selected four money line parlays, each going off at better than +120 odds, which is the unwritten rule for this weekly feature. Actually, there are just three parlays this week, as the fourth selection is a single game where the ladies believe the underdog should be favored by at least a touchdown.

Enjoy the picks, but remember, neither the ladies nor the Captain ever wager real money on the outcomes of these games. The goal here is to have fun with math.

#1 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
North Texas Louisiana Tech
#2 @ +144  
Must Win Must Lose
Georgia St.
Georgia Southern
Kentucky Ole Miss
#3 @ +167  
Must Win Must Lose
Navy Temple
Northwestern Nebraska
#4 @ +204  
Must Win Must Lose
Missouri Florida
UAB Rice
Tulane Cincinnati

 

 

October 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 26-28, 2017

Oh brother!  I leave my ladies in charge of the website for a few days, and when I return from a nice long weekend, they have rearranged all the e-furniture.  Worse, they exchanged the Money Line picks I had left with their own, and they actually enjoyed a winning week.  They issued four selections (totally different than what I had left to be published), and they won two of the four for a return on investment of 28%.

Believe me, I have not heard the end of this.  Mrs. Captain, of course, sided with her gender, and so this week, I must defer to the ladies to pick the parlays yet again.  All I have done is to organize their picks into the best possible parlay odds by sourcing the best odds from the available books.  What you have as a result are four more parlays, each returning greater than +120 odds (actually this week better than +150) while playing no more than three games per parlay.

Because the ladies selected to teams to win outright as underdogs, and to minimize risk, I have combined these two underdogs in one parlay that, if it wins, it would return an incredible payoff at +375 (a $100 investment would return $475).

One preface to this before you look at the parlays.  Two of the ladies here bleed scarlet and gray and believe that the Giant Horseshoe is a basilica, tabernacle, shrine, and temple.  They believe that script Ohio is akin to the holy scriptures.  Their key pick this week is Ohio State over Penn State, and to add to their partiality, they refer to the opponent at State Pen, and they believe James Franklin was set on Earth by Lucifer.

Personally, I see the Buckeyes ready to get their revenge, but I know Coach Franklin and have seen him work miracles at Vanderbilt.  If he could win at Georgia and Florida as a bigger underdog than his Nittany Lions will be tomorrow, then he can certainly channel his inner Tom Lasorda and get his team ready to run through the walls at said horseshoe.  I would not have selected this game as part of a parlay, but then I have ceded control of this submission to the lasses.

#1 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Marshall
Georgia Florida
#2 @ +162  
Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Vanderbilt
Notre Dame NC State
Texas Baylor
#3 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Iowa Minnesota
Ohio St. Penn St.
#4 @ +375  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Michigan St.
Wyoming New Mexico

Money Line Parlay Tutorial for newcomers to this site

If you are new to Money Lines and Parlays, hopefully this will explain it well enough for you to understand what is going on above.

When two sports teams play, the more familiar way to provide options for wagering is a pointspread.  For instance, say that Notre Dame is playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Alabama might be favored to win by 6 1/2 points.  In order for Alabama to win the game for those that bet on the Crimson Tide, they would have to win by 7 or more points.  If Notre Dame won or lost by 6 points or less, then those that wagered on Notre Dame would win their bets.

There is another way to bet on this game.  It is called the “Money Line.”  Pointspreads are not used.  Instead, you simply pick either Alabama or Notre Dame to win the game.  If you can bet on Alabama to win this game, even by one point, it sounds too good to be true.  Yes, there is a catch here.  In order to bet on Alabama, you must put up more money than the sports book, but if you bet on the underdog Irish to win the game, the book puts up more money than you.  This is why the wager is called a “money line.”

When you look at money line odds, the favorite will have a minus number, and the underdog will have a plus number, although there are times when a tossup game will have two minus numbers.  The reason for this is that the sports books must get their cut or vigorish.

Let’s look at a couple games to be played tonight.  Northern Illinois hosts Eastern Michigan, and NIU is a modest favorite.  The Money Line is available at about 15 sports books where one could make a wager in one’s home via the Internet.  The line may vary from site to sire, so it is best to shop around to find the best odds.

For our purposes in this tutorial, we will use one famous online sports book, Five Dimes.  At the present time, the Money Line odds at 5D for the NIU-EMU game is listed at:   Northern Illinois -275, Eastern Michigan +235.

If you want to wager on NIU, you must put up $275 for every $100 5 Dimes puts up.  If you wager $100 on NIU to win, you will $36.36 profit and receive back $136.36 if NIU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.  If you wager $100 on EMU to win, you will receive $275 profit and receive back $375 if EMU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.

When you combine two or more games into one money line wager, your odds improve, but your chances of winning all the games in the one wager go down.  Let’s say you want to combine three favorites into one betting wager.  Let’s say you are going to play a parlay that includes Favorite #1 at -250, Favorite #2 at -225, and Favorite #3 at -180.

How do yo determine what the odds would be on this parlay of three favorites, all of whom would have to win their games for you to win your wager?  I won’t bore you with the mathematical formula.  There is an easy way to figure the odds, and it is called a parlay calculator.  You don’t have to buy this from a Las Vegas book store.  They are available for free in many places online.  In our opinion, the parlay calculator at Vegasinsider.com is the easiest one to use.  You can find this calculator at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

First, we select $100 for the bet amount (you can put any other amount in this spot, but all of the PiRate Rating parlays are played at $100 per wager.  We simply input -250, -225-, and -180 adjacent to Team #1 Money Line, Team #2 Money Line, and Team #3 Money Line.  Then we click on “Calculate”, and we see the number $214.57 returned.  This means that if these three favorites we have selected all win their games, we will make a $214.57 profit and receive $314.57 in our account (The profit plus what we wagered).  If the three teams do not all win their games, we will be out the $100 we invested on this game.  It can be a headache to see two teams win their games, and then your final favored team loses in an upset due to a fourth quarter field goal, but it happens, and you have to live with it.

Our goal at the PiRate Ratings is to select parlays that return better than +120 odds, while betting mostly on favored teams.  We prefer to play no more than three games in a parlay, but there are times when we might play 6 or 7 prohibitive favorites when the odds look preferable.  We won a 7-team parlay once that returned +200 odds, and all 7 teams won by double-digits.  Of course, this is a rare event.  Every week, some big underdog will upset a favorite.  In recent weeks, we had some considerable underdogs pulling off big upsets.  Syracuse surprised Clemson.  Arizona State beat up on Washington, Arizona took out Washington State, Tulsa whipped Houston, Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Troy beat LSU.  These sure things that could have been included on parlays destroyed the selections.

As usual, read this and understand it: The PiRates never wager real currency on our selections.  We enjoy the fun that mathematics married to athletics brings a group of math geeks.  We only wager imaginary money on these games, and thus we have no worries about issuing these picks.  They are strictly for the fun of it, and enjoying a winning week is a win for mathematics and not our bank accounts.

Enjoy the games, but be just as wealthy on Sunday morning as you are on Saturday morning.

 

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Iowa
Minnesota Illinois
#2 @ +169  
Must Win Must Lose
Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette
Notre Dame USC
LSU Ole Miss
#3 @ +127  
Must Win Must Lose
Houston Memphis
Penn St. Michigan
#4 @ +132  
Must Win Must Lose
UAB Charlotte
Purdue Rutgers
Duke Pittsburgh

Good luck.  You’ll need it if you play our parlays.  Shame on you if you wager the paper that they say is real money on these selections.  If you want to gift away $400, you can send it to my Patreon page.

October 12, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 12-14, 2017

Ouch!  We took it on the chin and everywhere else last week, as all four of our parlays went down in flames.  It wasn’t even close, as we were 0-4 quite quickly.

About all we accomplished in the last two weeks is that we now have two of our followers experimenting with their own formulas.  One is using IF bets, while the other is going with single games.  Neither of them accomplished what they hoped so far, but both are mathematically sound.  The issue is that there is a bit more parity in football this season, and the teams that you and we just know will win for sure go off at Money Line odds of -1000 or worse.  If you are totally sure that Ohio State will beat Nebraska, Mississippi State will beat BYU, Alabama will beat Arkansas, Oklahoma State will beat Baylor, Georgia will beat Missouri, South Florida will beat Cincinnati, Clemson will beat Syracuse, and Iowa State will beat Kansas, you can put down a wager on this parlay and feel about 85% confident you will win this wager.  And guess what you will receive for every $1 you wager on this “sure thing”?  If you bet $1 and win, you will receive $1.35 in winnings, which includes your original buck invested.  Yes, it would be a 35% return on your investment, and even Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman would accept a 35% ROI over 3 days in the investment.  But, they would still hold off on this one, because the Margin of Safety would not be there, and the chances of losing all of the investment would outweigh the chance to make a 35% profit in 3 days.

This week our little ship of buccaneers and queens of the sea were not in agreement on many supposed sure-thing winners that would allow us to construct parlays with odds of +120 or better.  We only came up with two parlays, one of which forced us to go four-deep in games.  We are in the hole a bit too much to risk additional funds on games we do not all believe can win.

We almost made a decision to double our investment on this week’s games, but the Captain warned us that doubling down almost always ballooned into something out of control.  If you lose $100 this week, bet $200 next week; if you lose again, then bet $400 the next week; then $800, $1,600, $3,200, etc.  If you get on a really cold streak, soon you are betting your house and car, and your family, and your kidney, etc.  So, we stick with equal unit wagers on all games.

REMEMBER THIS: We are playing with imaginary currency.  So, we actually could double down, because $200 of fake dough is equal to $100 of fake dough.  We do know that a large number of you reading this use the real stuff, so we are going to approach this weekly feature as if it was real.  Also, there are more than one of you that have told us that you modify our selections and our Ratings’ Spreads and actually do quite well with the data.  One of you has even told us about how you have been ultra successful, but we did not press this issue in order for you to keep your method private.  Any method that really works quickly doesn’t work once the world discovers the secret, because the odds then change, making the system worthless.

Here are our picks for this week.  We hope they are a tad better than worthless, but we have our doubts.

#1@ +170  
Must Win Must Lose
UL-Lafayette Texas St.
South Carolina Tennessee
San Diego St. Boise St.

 

#2 @ +137  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami (O) Kent St.
Temple Connecticut
Tulane Florida Int’l.
Houston Tulsa

 

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