The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 21-25, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:45 am

A Narrow Positive

We told you last week that the third week in November had historically been our most successful wagering week of the 21st Century.  Hopefully, this wasn’t a peak, but our selections did turn a small profit yet again on this favorable week of the season.

As far as the fourth week of November, our results over the last several years have been mixed.  Since this is a 5-Saturday November, the typical end of season rivalry games will be next week, so we are hoping that this week will be more typical of past third weeks.

Are you confused?  You shouldn’t be, because in the end, we highly encourage you not to wager based on any information you read here.  You pay nothing for these selections, so you should wager nothing on them.

This week our regular PiRate Picks will go big or go  home.  We are going with parlays that return big odds, and if we can win half of the  parlays, it will be a windfall imaginary profit.

We are also going to take our first 7-point, 3-game NFL Parlay of the season at 7-5 odds.

As for the Davey19 experimental system, we have seven selections against the spread.  Davey19 has been a somewhat positive experiment this year, and last week was another good one as the picks went 4-2-1.  It is experimental, so we cannot vouch for its continued success.  It is strictly mechanical and does not take into consideration the weather forecast and any injury news that came out after Monday’s PiRate Ratings were published.

 

PiRate Picks

Money Line Parlays

 

#1. 3-games at +219

USC over UCLA

UL-Monroe over Coastal Carolina

Stanford over California

 

 

#2. 4-games at +307

Michigan over Indiana

North Texas over Rice

San Jose St. over UNLV

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

 

 

#3. 5-games at +297

Oklahoma St. over West Virginia

Wake Forest over Duke

Louisville over Syracuse

Georgia St. over South Alabama

Georgia over Texas A&M

 

 

#4. 4-NFL games at +435

Houston over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Denver

Oakland over N.Y. Jets

New England over Dallas

 

 

#5. 3-Game, 7-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Indianapolis

10.5

Indianapolis

New Orleans

Carolina

1.5

New Orleans

Dallas

New England

0.5

New England

 

 

Davey19 Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Wyoming

Colorado St.

6.5

Wyoming

Iowa

Illinois

15.5

Illinois

Ball St.

Kent St.

3.5

Kent St.

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

4

Virginia Tech

Nebraska

Maryland

4.5

Nebraska

Missouri

Tennessee

4

Tennessee

Fresno St.

Nevada

14

Nevada

 

 

November 14, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 14-18, 2019

Your 1962 New York Mets of Selections

The lovable 1962 New York Mets won 40 games in their initial season in Major League Baseball.  There were a couple of star players, and the rest of the roster belonged in the International League.  

That’s how our selections have fared this year.  A couple of times, we came up with some incredible wins on some long shot picks, but the rest of the time, our picks belonged in the bush leagues.

The good thing about the Mets was that eventually 1969 came, and they performed miracles in winning the World Series.  Of course, having player development that brought them Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, Cleon Jones, Jerry Grote, and Bud Harrelson, as well as some nice acquisitions in Tommie Agee and Donn Clendenon, made their roster quite strong.  The PiRate Ratings have not developed any young talent in the last few weeks with hopes that a wagering week like 1969 will create a second miracle.

On the other hand, this has historically been the week that our ratings have enjoyed the most over the last 10 years.  The third week of November has brought us our highest return on imaginary investment (our picks are for entertainment purposes and never actually wagered on by us) of the season.

Three years ago, we hit on some outrageous parlays and outright picks against the spread, making a slight ROI on the year into a windfall profit margin.  Two years ago, we turned a slight deficit on the year into a nice profit that when combined with the bowl season gave us another year in the black.  Last year, we went from large deficit to almost break even after this week.

You can see the trend.  Every year, this week turned the momentum in our direction, but each year, this week reversed more malaise than the previous season.  In 2019, we find ourselves so deep in the whole that even the best ever finish on this week will still leave us well in the red.

So, remember, even though  this week has been rather successful for us in the past, please DO NOT WAGER your money on what you will read below.  If we have not faith in these picks, why should you?

Disclaimer: This does not apply to those handful of Smarts that somehow take our spreads and other data and make money off them somehow in Nevada and in the Caribbean.  How you do it, we do not know.  But, we do know that a group of Smarts uses our ratings and consistently beats the books.  

This week, we are going to issue a few less choices overall, but this is because we feel the heat on us.  This has been a winning week so many times for us that we spent an extra 10 minutes or so per selection looking them over.  We found a couple of special teasers that cross over the important spread numbers.  We isolated on some money line parlays that we feel strong about.

As for our experimental Davey19 system, the biggest difference in the line and its predicted score just so happened to pop up this week.  There is a reason for this.  The oddsmakers definitely consider psychological factors when making the line.  Davey19 has no personality.  Davey is a computer program with no emotion.  

What game are we talking about?  The Iowa-Minnesota game in Iowa City has the Gophers playing on the road in a tough environment coming off their monumental home win over Penn State.  The oddsmakers have Iowa favored in this game as a trap for Minnesota.  Davey19 strictly picks games when its experimental spread differs from the line by more than 3.5 points.  Davey19 says Minnesota is a touchdown better than Iowa at Kinnick Stadium.  That’s a full 10 points different.  Minnesota might indeed suffer a letdown, but 10 points of letdown is a lot.  And, the Gophers aren’t just playing a game following an upset win.  They have a lot more to play for now.  They have the Playoffs in their sites, and for now, every game is the biggest game in school history since Sandy Stephens, Roger Hagberg, and Bobby Bell played for the #3 Gophers against #1 Iowa in 1960.  Yes, this is the biggest game in Minnesota history since they played Iowas 59 years ago and basically secured the national championship with a convincing win over the #1 team.

Without further adieu, here are our picks for the week.

 

PiRate Picks

College Money Line Parlays

 

#1–3 Games at +142

Winner

Loser

Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech

Georgia Southern

UL-Monroe

Middle Tennessee

Rice

 

#2–3 Games at +148

Winner

Loser

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

Florida

Missouri

Kansas St.

West Virginia

 

#3–4 Games at +133

Winner

Loser

Michigan

Michigan St.

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

Duke

Syracuse

Texas A&M

South Carolina

 

#4–2 Games at +134

Winner

Loser

Notre Dame

Navy

Georgia

Auburn

 

#5–3 Games at +151

Winner

Loser

Memphis

Houston

Air Force

Colorado St.

Louisville

N. Carolina St.

 

NFL 10-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Denver

0.5

Minnesota

Oakland

Cincinnati

0.5

Oakland

Chicago

LA Rams

3.5

LA Rams

 

NFL 13-Point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

16

Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay

New Orleans

7.5

New Orleans

Atlanta

Carolina

7.5

Carolina

Washington

N.Y. Jets

14.5

N.Y. Jets

 

Davey19

An Experimental College Football Selection System

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

San Diego St.

1

San Diego St.

Ball St.

Central Michigan

2.5

Ball St.

USC

California

6.5

USC

TCU

Texas Tech

3.5

Texas Tech

Southern Miss.

UTSA

17

UTSA

LSU

Ole Miss

21

Ole Miss

Iowa

Minnesota

3

Minnesota

 

 

 

November 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 7-11, 2019

Welcome to Thursday Comedy Relief.  It’s official now: this is the worst season in the 21st Century for PiRate Picks.  As we always tell you, these picks are free and maybe not worth what you pay for them.  In past years, we have had better access to information that has been unavailable to us, and so these picks are not going to be as reliable as when we were actually winning consistently.

We know that some of you reading this have discovered the little “secret” system in our regular weekly ratings that through super computer programming, you can come up with a half-dozen or so picks that are rewarding you with better than 62% wins.  It’s so secret, that we do not know the real particulars, and we unwisely recommended that you not tell us how you are doing it, because it might be too tempting to try it ourselves and then lose our mortgage payments (figuratively, since we burned our mortgage some time ago).

This is the absolute best week for college football to date.  This week’s games between Alabama and LSU, preceded by Minnesota and Penn State, and including Baylor-TCU, Iowa State-Oklahoma, and even including the best FCS game of the year and the celebration of the 150th anniversary of college football–undefeated Princeton versus undefeated Dartmouth at Yankee Stadium, we know that a lot of you love to add a little excitement when watching these top games.

Please, please, please, disregard our selections when considering whether or not you will wager on these games.  We are hitting 48% in our selections this year.  That’s total crappy status.  You cannot win at 48%, because even if you wager the exact opposite, at 52% you still lose.  None of your reading this feature are one of those folks with the supercomputer winning on 63+% of the wagers that our ratings somehow pop up 6-10 games per week, and our selections below are not part of that system.

 

This Week’s PiRate Picks

College Games

10-point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida St.

Boston College

11

Boston College

Ohio St.

Maryland

32

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

Illinois

24.5

Illinois

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Vanderbilt

16.5

Florida

Ole Miss

N. Mexico St.

38.5

N. Mexico St.

Kentucky

Tennessee

11

Tennessee

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Georgia

Ole Miss

6.5

Georgia

Virginia

Georgia Tech

26

Georgia Tech

BYU

Liberty

27

Liberty

 

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas Tech

West Virginia

15.5

West Virginia

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

19.5

Louisville

Wake Forest

Virginia Tech

15.5

Virginia Tech

Penn St.

Minnesota

20

Minnesota

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Northwestern

Purdue

15.5

Purdue

Charlotte

UTEP

Pk

Charlotte

Baylor

TCU

10.5

TCU

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

1.5

Oklahoma

 

College Money Line Parlay –4 games at +268

 

Winner

Loser

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

Fresno St.

Utah St.

Notre Dame

Duke

Washington

Oregon St.

 

NFL Games

13-Point Teasers

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Oakland

14.5

Oakland

New Orleans

Atlanta

Pk

New Orleans

Cincinnati

Baltimore

3

Baltimore

Carolina

Green Bay

8

Green Bay

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Chicago

Detroit

15.5

Detroit

Miami

Indianapolis

2.5

Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

10.5

N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay

Arizona

17.5

Arizona

 

Money Line Parlay –2 Games at +149

 

Winner

Loser

N.Y. Giants

N.Y. Jets

Green Bay

Carolina

 

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Coastal Carolina

14.5

Coastal Carolina

Michigan St.

Illinois

15

Illinois

Boise St.

Wyoming

13.5

Wyoming

Alabama

LSU

5.5

Alabama

Troy

Georgia Southern

3

Georgia Southern

Kentucky

Tennessee

1

Tennessee

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

5

Louisiana Tech

 

 

October 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 24-28, 2019

It couldn’t last.  Our winning streak ended soon after it began, and both the PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks fell to the losing side last week.  We’re back at it again hoping that maybe if you see a game you have thought about wagering real money on the outcome, you will see that we agree with you, and you will quickly forget playing that game.

Remember, the PiRates do not wager real money on football games, and we encourage you not to use our picks as handicapping aids if you happen to play for real.  These picks are free and are priced exactly where they need to be.

PiRate Picks

This week, we add a new twist that hasn’t been shown here in several years.  We are going to make a few 6-point teaser picks (2-game parlays @ 10-11 odds)

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

4

UConn

Memphis

Tulsa

4.5

Memphis

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas A&M

Mississippi St.

4.5

Texas A&M

Iowa

Northwestern

4

Iowa

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Miami (Fla.)

Pittsburgh

0.5

Pittsburgh

Arkansas St.

Texas St.

5.5

Arkansas St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

SMU

Houston

4

SMU

Central Michigan

Buffalo

7.5

Buffalo

Purdue

Illinois

20

Illinois

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Liberty

Rutgers

17

Rutgers

Rice

Southern Miss.

0.5

Southern Miss

Wyoming

Nevada

4

Wyoming

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

4.5

Fresno St

Georgia Southern

N. Mexico St.

4.5

Ga. Southern

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

0.5

Iowa St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Ohio

Ball St.

7.5

Ball St.

Oklahoma

Kansas St.

13.5

Oklahoma

Minnesota

Maryland

6.5

Minnesota

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas

TCU

11.5

TCU

Ohio St.

Wisconsin

4.5

Ohio St.

LSU

Auburn

0.5

LSU

 

College 13-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Troy

Georgia St.

12

Georgia St.

Penn St.

Michigan St.

19.5

Michigan St.

Middle Tennessee

Florida Int’l.

10.5

Fla. Intl

South Carolina

Tennessee

17.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Washington

6.5

Minnesota

N.Y. Giants

Detroit

3

Detroit

Tampa Bay

Tennessee

7.5

Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Chargers

Chicago

6

Chicago

N.Y. Jets

Jacksonville

4

Jacksonville

Philadelphia

Buffalo

8.5

Buffalo

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

LA Rams

Cincinnati

3

LA Rams

New Orleans

Arizona

0.5

New Orleans

Oakland

Houston

3

Houston

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Indianapolis

4.5

Indianapolis

New England

Cleveland

3

New England

Miami

Pittsburgh

4.5

Pittsburgh

 

Davey19 Selections

College Picks Against The Spread

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Connecticut

Massachusetts

10

UMass

Purdue

Illinois

10

Illinois

Central Florida

Temple

11

Temple

Buffalo

Central Michigan

2.5

Buffalo

Liberty

Rutgers

7.5

Rutgers

Marshall

Western Kentucky

5

Western Kentucky

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

10.5

Oklahoma St.

Ball St.

Ohio

2.5

Ball St.

North Texas

Charlotte

4.5

Charlotte

 

Note: For those of you that play for real, please be aware that in both college and pro football this weekend, Miami is playing Pittsburgh at Heinz Stadium.  Don’t confuse the games on the card.

The Pitt Panthers and Miami of Florida Hurricanes face off Saturday at Noon Eastern Daylight Time.  The Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night at 8:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

 

And, as a reminder, next Sunday’s NFL games will kick off in Standard Time.  Daylight Savings Time goes to bed Sunday morning at 2 AM, November 3.  It never ceases to amaze us as to how many 9 to 5 workers fail to notice that one of their car’s headlights, taillights, brake lights, or signal lights is not working, until after the clocks are set back in the Fall, and they drive home from work in the dark. 

Please check all your lights before you turn your clock back an hour.  Darkness at 4:30 PM always leads to increased traffic accidents in large cities, so play it safe and prepare by becoming a better defensive driver.  The life you save, may be mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 17-21, 2019

Hooray, Hooray!  Maybe our little ditty we recited at the beginning of last week’s picks really worked!  That ditty went this way, “Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!”  It has to do with a childhood saying, and it worked then and apparently worked last week.

Both our PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks won.  The PiRate Picks enjoyed a windfall weekend with big wins.  Another 6 or 7 weeks in a row just like this, and we might even get back to level in our imaginary bank accounts.

While we have been trying to issue our money line parlay picks on Friday, we have a Thursday night game that is included in our selections, we have to issue those picks today as well.

Remember, the PiRates never wager real money on the outcomes of these games, and we also remind you that you frequently get what you pay for, and this is totally free.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers, 3 Game Parlays

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana

Arkansas St.

17

Arkansas St.

Ohio

Kent St.

17.5

Kent St.

Utah St.

Nevada

31

Nevada

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

California

Oregon St.

21

Oregon St.

Washington

Oregon

7

Oregon

South Carolina

Florida

15.5

Florida

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

9

Southern Miss.

Auburn

Arkansas

29

Arkansas

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

13.5

North Carolina

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Iowa St.

Texas Tech

17

Texas Tech

Rice

UTSA

14.5

UTSA

SMU

Temple

17.5

Temple

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Denver

Kansas City

7

Kansas City

N.Y. Giants

Arizona

13

Arizona

Houston

Indianapolis

10

Indianapolis

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Minnesota

Detroit

11

Detroit

Green Bay

Oakland

15.5

Oakland

LA Rams

Atlanta

13

Atlanta

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Seattle

Baltimore

13

Baltimore

Philadelphia

Dallas

7

Dallas

New England

N.Y. Jets

20.5

N.Y. Jets

 

 

Money Line Parlays

 

All 3-game parlays 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Oregon

Washington

Penn St.

Michigan

+188

Western Ky.

Charlotte

 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

Western Mich.

Eastern Mich.

+193

Boise St.

BYU

 

 

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Stanford

UCLA

Florida

South Carolina

+224

Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Margins Plays

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Kent St.

Ohio

+7.5

Boise St.

BYU

-6.5

Oregon

Washington

-2.5

Florida

South Carolina

-4.5

North Carolina

Va Tech

-3

Hawaii

AFA

+3

Houston

Indianapolis

+1

Oakland

Green Bay

+5.5

Washington

San Francisco

+10.5

LA Chargers

Tennessee

+2.5

 

Totals Plays

 

Team

Team

Total

Pick

UCLA

Stanford

52.5

Under

Georgia Tech

Miami (Fla.)

46

Under

Florida St.

Wake Forest

69

Under

North Carolina

Virginia Tech

57

Under

Tennessee

LA Chargers

40

Under

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 10, 2019

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Plays

We had an upset pick at +200 a couple nights ago, but since we isolated on this one, a bunch of Sharps obviously saw the same value we did.  So, our upset pick is only going off at +195 for now.  We have three Money Line plays to show you this week, two of which are parlays.

Money Line Play #1

Temple +195 vs. Memphis

It’s true that Temple doesn’t enjoy the best home field advantage, but Memphis has a considerable road team disadvantage.  The Tigers have not been tested on the road, and their stats on both sides of the ball are not Boise State worthy at the moment.

Temple dropped a game at Buffalo, but the Owls would beat the Bulls seven times out of 10.  TU’s defense should be just strong enough to hold the Tigers under 28 points, while the Owl offense has a good chance at 30+.  Thus we have strong feelings that Temple will win this game outright.  If you can find this game anywhere at +200, then play it as a gamble.  Our ratings show this a toss-up game, so +200 is quite a bargain if you can find it.

 

Money Line Play #2

Two-game Parlay at +138

 

Eastern Michigan over Ball St.

Central Michigan over New Mexico St.

 

 

Money Line Play #3

Three-game Parlay at +155

Wake Forest over Louisville

Ohio U over Northern Illinois

Baylor over Texas Tech

 

Remember–We do not charge for our selections, and you should consider this information worth what you pay for it.  Please do not lose your mortgage payment because of something you read on this site.  We NEVER wager real money on sporting events.

October 9, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 10-14, 2019

Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!  That’s a saying that goes back to the 1960’s, when a certain PiRate Captain was in school trying to impress this really cute blonde-haired, blue-eyed tomboy classmate.  It so happened that she and he were outside on the playground, and he was trying to teach her how to hit foul shots on the basketball goal.  She kept barely missing on those foul shots, when he made this little ditty up as it came to mind.  And, voila!  The pretty girl made three shots in a row.  The rest is history.  In the 1970’s, This girl would go on to become the star of her high school basketball team, setting the all-time single-season and career scoring marks.  She then enjoyed a four-year career as a starting guard for a Division 1 college team, playing in the NCAA Tournament.

 

The Captain figured it wouldn’t hurt to repeat that mantra in hopes that it would turn around the recent misfortunes of the PiRate Ratings.  The ratings in recent weeks have been just barely missing.

How much do you pay for these selections?  Remember, you usually get what you pay for, and that’s what these selections have been worth this season.  So, let’s hope we get more luck this week.

Without further adieu, here are the selections you should avoid like the plague.

 

PiRate Rating Selections

 

10-point Teasers, 3-game parlays

 

#1

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Syracuse

NC St.

+14.5

Virginia

Miami

+12.5

New Mexico

Colorado St.

+13.5

 

 

#2

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Indiana

Rutgers

+38

Navy

Tulsa

+11

Texas

Oklahoma

+21.5

 

 

#3

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Temple

Memphis

+16

Nebraska

Minnesota

+17.5

Boise St.

Hawaii

-1.5

 

 

#4

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Eastern Michigan

Ball St.

+9

Central Michigan

New Mexico St.

Pk

Arizona St.

Washington St.

+11

 

 

#5

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Oregon St.

Utah

+23.5

Ole Miss

Missouri

+22

Ohio

Northern Illinois

+3.5

 

 

#6

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Baylor

Texas Tech

-1

Vanderbilt

UNLV

-4.5

Wisconsin

Michigan St.

-0.5

 

 

#7

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Florida

LSU

+23.5

Nevada

San Jose St.

+8

Alabama

Texas A&M

-6.5

 

 

#8

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Florida Atlantic

Middle Tenn.

-0.5

UAB

UTSA

-2

Notre Dame

USC

-1

 

 

#9

Pick

Opponent

Spread

New England

N.Y. Jets

-6.5

Baltimore

Cincinnati

-1

Cleveland

Seattle

+12

 

 

#10

Pick

Opponent

Spread

New Orleans

Jacksonville

+11.5

Miami

Washington

+13.5

Arizona

Atlanta

+12.5

 

 

#11

Pick

Opponent

Spread

Denver

Tennessee

+7.5

Detroit

Green Bay

+14.5

Carolina

Tampa Bay

+8

 

 

Davey19  Selections

 

Pick

Opponent

Spread

UL-Monroe

Texas St.

-3

Virginia

Miami (Fla.)

+2.5

Colorado

Oregon

+21.5

Illinois

Michigan

+22.5

Nebraska

Minnesota

+8

Arkansas

Kentucky

+7

Air Force

Fresno St.

-3

Coming Friday–We will issue three money line selections, one an outright upset winner currently listed at +200, and two parlays.

 

 

October 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last week, our special money line parlays delivered mixed results.  If you chose to play Duke and Baylor in your upset parlay, you enjoyed a nice bonanza.  If you added or chose Kansas State or Indiana, then your imaginary investment was shredded.

We did not issue any money line parlay picks in our regular weekly picks yesterday.  We decided to save them for this post.  We just want to stress that these selections are totally off the wall long shots at odds of better than +150.  In other words, they are not likely to win, even though they always look handsome on paper.

We have chosen three college parlays and one NFL parlay this week.  Take a look.

 

Money Line Parlay #1  Odds: +160

San Diego State over Colorado State

UAB over Rice

Texas over West Virginia

Miami (Fla.) over Virginia Tech

 

 

Money Line Parlay #2  Odds: +162

Auburn over Florida

North Carolina over Georgia Tech

Maryland over Rutgers

 

 

Money Line Parlay #3  Odds: +198

Colorado over Arizona

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan

Oklahoma State over Texas Tech

 

 

Money Line Parlay #4  Odds: +230

Chicago over Oakland

New Orleans over Tampa Bay

LA Chargers over Denver

 

 

October 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 3-7, 2019

Yet another week went by with mixed results here on the PiRate ship.  Our original picks began the weekend on a high note, as we hit on outright Money Line upsets by Duke and by Baylor.  Indiana even looked promising for awhile, before Michigan State proved too much for the Hoosiers.  Then, what we gained on Saturday, we gave back on Sunday.

The Davey19 experimental system had another successful week, bringing the total for the year back into the black.  When we use this formula, many times we look at the plays and feel apprehensive about publishing them, but they have proven to be winners so far this year.

Today, our concentration is more on the number and less on the teams involved.  Certainly, the teams involve matter, as getting 7 1/2 points for a winless team wouldn’t be worth a hoot against a top 5 team.  But, when it comes to games that are not considered blowout games, we are going to go heavy on the ones that cross multiple frequent numbers most prevalent in football outcomes.

By the way, do you know which numbers we speak of?  There are separate sets of numbers for college and for NFL games.  Let’s look at college first.

About 35% of all FBS football games end with the winner beating the loser by 3, 4, 7, 10, 14, 17, or 21 points.  Those 7 margins make up better than 1/3 of all game outcomes.  When we refer to crossing numbers, this means we can play a teaser of 6, 6 1/2, 7, 10, or 13 points and cross multiple frequent margins.

For example, let’s say that Team A is listed as a 2 1/2 point underdog to Team B.  If we were to play Team A in a 10-point teaser as part of a 3-game parlay, we’d be allowed to move that spread from 2 1/2 to 12 1/2.  Doing so crosses 3, 4, 7, and 10, four of the most frequent margins in football games.  Crossing four numbers is quite nice.  

If Team B is a favorite over Team A by 2 1/2 and you play Team A in a 6-point, 2-game teaser, you can make Team A go from a 2 1/2 point to an 8 1/2 point underdog, crossing 3, 4, and 7.  In this instance crossing three frequent margins is wonderful when only having to win two games on a parlay.

When it comes to NFL games, the frequency of margins has changed quite a bit since 2015, when the extra point attempt was moved back to the 18 yard line and more teams began going for two-point conversions.

Today’s NFL sees a lot of games decided by 5 or 6 points.  Prior to 2015, more games ended by 10 and 4 points than today.  The advantage is now more in the smart bettor’s favor than it used to be.  42% of all NFL games end with a margin of 3, 4, 5. 6, or 7 points.  So, being able to cross these five margins in a teaser is an incredible opportunity if you can find a tossup game and tease it past that magical number 7.  Or, if you think you have a team that is a sure outright winner and is favored by more than 7 points, if you can tease that number to 2 1/2 or less, you are gaining a large advantage.  Professional gambling author John Ferguson, known by the nom deplum of Stanford Wong made the Teaser play that moves through 3 and 7 point margins quite famous, and today, this is called a Wong Teaser.  Wong’s favorite teaser play was a 6-point tease of favorites of 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points down to 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points, and a 6-point tease of underdogs of 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points to 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points.

When Ferguson made big money betting these types of teasers, the books offered much fairer odds on them, until more people picked up on this and began to win too much.  Now, you can get -110 odds on 2-game, 6-point teasers.  You have to put up $11 for every $10 the books put up.  We are not in the business of advertising for any company, so we won’t tell you the name, but if you do your research, you can still find a place where a 2-game, 6-point teaser has +100 odds, which means they put up dollar for dollar what you put up.

We have heard from a few of you that anxiously await these picks to come out every Thursday morning in the Central US.  Hopefully, you heed our advice and never wager real money on our published suggestions (And if you do, maybe it is to convince you not to play the games we picked!).

Even though our Davey19 experimental program is showing a profit for the year, the number of weeks it has been tried is still too small to mean much.  Our regular system had a multi-year run of success, but this year, it stinks.  So, just because Davey19 has a multi-week run of success, it could just as easily stink this week.  

Let’s get on with it.  Here are our selections for the week.  Once again–we never wager real money on these picks.  We are math geeks, and numbers are our friends.  We will make a statement that some people have taught their children how to love math by using applications like this and others using money to teach them how important math is.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers

 

#1

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Duke

Pittsburgh

15

Pittsburgh

Toledo

Western Michigan

12

Western Michigan

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

17 1/2

Vanderbilt

Our feeling on this one is that Pittsburgh is vastly underrated with close losses to Penn State and Virginia.  Their listless win over Delaware can be excused as a sandwich game between the big upset of Central Florida and the conference game with Duke.

We believe that Western Michigan has about a 55-60% chance of winning this game outright, so making Toledo a double-digit favorite entices us to take the Broncos in this one.

An admission: we typically never play either way on a game involving Vanderbilt.  Our captain has inside connections with the program, and he feels that it wouldn’t be right to issue picks either way on the Commodores.  However, this week, this game becomes a prime pick, and the Captain has no inside information here.  This is purely a comparison of personnel, as well as production so far.  The Captain says that Vanderbilt’s opening troika of games with Northern Illinois in Game 4 basically made it a certainty that they would open 1-3 and become devalued.  Ole Miss’s defense is going to suffer a letdown against the Vanderbilt offense.  The Rebels have reached that point where the players pretty much know that the season is going to head south in October and November.  Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has a gimme game next week with UNLV and will not be looking forward past the next play in this game.  Ole Miss must play at Missouri, against Texas A&M, and at Auburn the next three weeks.  With LSU and Mississippi State coming at the end of the year, the chances of making it to bowl eligibility are about 1-2%.  Vanderbilt must win this game so that the UNLV game next week really matters.  A win Saturday virtually guarantees getting back to .500 the next week and with three definitely winnable games left on the schedule.  The SEC needs one of the bottom five teams to step up and gain bowl eligibility, and unless Missouri wins their challenge to ineligibility before December, the Commodores have the most favorable path to 6-6.

 

#2

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Florida

Auburn

7 1/2

Auburn

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia Tech

4

Miami

Oklahoma St.

Texas Tech

Pk

Oklahoma St.

 

We have been looking at the Florida-Auburn game since last Saturday night.  Our statistics and schedule strength show Auburn to be a legitimate touchdown or more favorite in this game, so getting more than that magical 7 points is quite appealing.

Teasing Miami from two touchdowns to 4 points brings us through the numbers 14, 10, and 7, and until Virginia Tech looks like a team with players that care, we will always look at teasing in their opponents’ favor.

Oklahoma State should beat Texas Tech 8 out of 10 times, so we are hoping that getting the Cowboys as a Pick’em will work, and this won’t be one of those two other times.

 

#3

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Penn St.

Purdue

18

Penn St.

Iowa

Michigan

6 1/2

Michigan

Washington

Stanford

6 1/2

Washington

 

We are not the type of player that plays a 4-touchdown favorite over a conference opponent, but with Purdue’s injury issues, we almost went with Penn State in a straight play at -28 over the Boilermakers.  However, we went the safer route and teased this under 21 points.  James Franklin may call off the dogs and allow PU a backdoor cover, but 18 points feels safe.

The Iowa-Michigan game was one of those really tough calls.  We hoped Iowa would pick up a little more Sharp support being undefeated, while Michigan has not won any big games under Jim Harbaugh.  Alas,  not enough Sharp money came in on Iowa, and the margin didn’t move to the 2 1/2 points we wanted.  We still like this number giving Michigan 6 1/2 points to play with, which does move the margin through two crucial numbers.  The fact that our ratings show that Michigan has about a 60% chance of winning the game, we’ll take the 6 1/2 points like it is bonus points for the true spread.

We get to move through 14, 10, and 7 in the Washington-Stanford game, and in our analysis, we believe the Huskies can blow the Cardinal off the field.  As a matter of fact, the Davey19 formula could be used to take UW outright at -16 1/2, but it was so close that we did not include it in this week’s Davey19 picks.

 

#4

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Tulane

Army

13

Army

Kansas St.

Baylor

12

Baylor

Nebraska

Northwestern

17 1/2

Northwestern

 

Tulane has become the sexy new Group of 5 favorite among the media, especially the ladies and gentlemen at ESPN and Fox Sports.  Army has yet to fire on all cylinders this year, but we don’t see the Green Wave going to West Point and winning by two touchdowns.

The Kansas State-Baylor game is strictly a numbers’ play.  Moving 2 to 12 goes through 3, 4, 7, and 10.  We don’t particularly love Baylor’s chances of winning after the emotional home upset of Iowa State, but 12 points from 2 are too much to turn down.

The same thing applies to Nebraska and Northwestern.  Neither team looks strong enough to blow out the other.  17 1/2 moves the spread through 10, 14, and 17, and in addition, we think the Cornhuskers should be favored by about 4 points.  So, this becomes more like a 13-point tease at a 10-point price.

 

#5

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Ohio

Buffalo

13

Buffalo

Iowa St.

TCU

13

TCU

Western Kentucky

Old Dominion

13 1/2

Old Dominion

 

These three plays are 100% about the numbers and not the teams after you factor in that these games are fairly evenly matched.  Ohio has been a disappointment so far, but their schedule has been a bit more than the Bobcats could handle to this point.  Additionally, this is a major revenge game for Buffalo, and it is a must-win game if the Bulls are to remain alive in the MAC-East.  Moving the line through 4, 7, and 10 is just gravy.

Iowa State and TCU might split 10 games, so getting the Horned Frogs and 13 is another great numbers’ play.

Western Kentucky has moved up from near the bottom to near the top in the CUSA East Division race, and the big upset over UAB last week means the Hilltoppers are now a contender in the division race.  However, teams that pull off big home upsets in conference games that go on the road the next week as a road favorite in a conference game have poor records covering the spread.  WKU may win this game, but not by two touchdowns.  

 

#6

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

UTSA

UTEP

11 1/2

UTEP

North Carolina

Georgia Tech

1/2

North Carolina

Rice

UAB

1

UAB

 

UTSA and UTEP could combine their rosters and still struggle to finish 3-9, so when one of these weak teams can be forced into a double-digit situation that crosses all the lower key numbers (3, 4, 7, and 10), we jump on this one.

Teasing the Tar Heels is the only way to go in this game.  North Carolina will bounce some after falling short against Clemson, but Georgia Tech is likely to go 0-8 in ACC play this year trying to move from the triple option philosophy to the standard style of play.  That’s usually a three-year transition process.  We’ll put enough faith in Mack Brown to get his Carolina team ready enough to win this game, even if just by a couple points.

The Rice-UAB spread should probably be larger than it is, and we were enticed to look twice at playing UAB straight up.  Teasing the Blazers into an underdog is too good to pass up in this one.

 

13-point Teaser

#7

Team

Team

Total

Pick

Arizona

Cincinnati

34

Over

Minnesota

N.Y. Giants

30 1/2

Over

Tennessee

Buffalo

25 1/2

Over

San Francisco

Cleveland

33 1/2

Over

 

We had to choose one 13-point teaser and go with NFL Totals.  It can be hard to find action in a 13-point teaser of totals, but it is possible, so we are going with one.

The reasoning behind this play is that NFL games have smaller standard deviations of point totals in games.  The books have to be careful with totals that are too low in an environment where offenses have the advantage over defenses.  Thus, moving them by 13 points back in the direction where they probably need to be makes these games enticing.  Other than that, we don’t have a lot else to go on in these plays.  We chose these four games because our own internal ratings show that all four games should be played in the 38-45 point total range.

Davey19

Davey19 is a mechanical system using multiple rules that would take much too long to explain.  And, if it proves to be successful, we aren’t about to explain it to the rest of the world.

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Kansas St.

Baylor

1

Kansas St.

Eastern Michigan

Central Michigan

5 1/2

Eastern Michigan

SMU

Tulsa

13 1/2

Tulsa

Auburn

Florida

2 1/2

Auburn

LSU

Utah St.

28

Utah St.

Carolina

Jacksonville

3 1/2

Jacksonville

Kansas City

Indianapolis

11 1/2

Indianapolis

New England

Washington

15 1/2

Washington

Philadelphia

N. Y. Jets

14 1/2

N.Y. Jets

 

 

 

 

September 27, 2019

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last Friday, we issued a special Money Line Parlay play that went off at +250, and it won.  We had help getting the five winning teams at relatively low odds together.  But, it was up to us to put the parlay together, as none of the “Sharps” that tutored us on how to play smarter actually ended up with this parlay (until one person saw it on this site and did play a small wager on it.

This week, we are swimming in the deep end without the swim instructors.  Can we find another rare gem with a big payout?  We doubt it, but here goes any way.

Remember, the members of the PiRate Ratings NEVER wager money on the picks we issue; actually, we just don’t wager at all, and if you are planning to wager real money, please do not do so based on what you read here.

Even the top Sharps that are now teaching us more about what we have been doing wrong in recent years only win about 62 to 65% of their wagers, and they wager 10-20 games a week.  If you took their advice but only chose a couple of their wagers, the chances that you’d win big would be minimal, because they have to play double digit games a week to avoid risk and let the law of averages tilt to their side.

Since only about 1% of those that wager regularly are profitable, and since 99% of these winners wouldn’t think of giving you advice, realize that practically every service out there that is marketing their talents to you are profiting off your money and not their wagers.  If they were really successful players, they would never offer their advice to the public.  They’d keep it to themselves and selfishly continue to win.

Now that you know that we are giving you these picks, you should understand these two things.

  1. We are not part of the 1% of Sharps that enjoy 6-figure and 7-figure annual careers, as we do not wager one cent.

  2. Our selections provided to you for free are worth exactly what you paid for it.  If we really knew what we were doing, then we might be in Las Vegas with some of our friends placing wagers and never telling anybody else what we selected.

 

This week’s theme is trying to find incredible value betting a parlay of underdogs.  We looked at all the college games this week and isolated on five teams we believe stand decent chances to win outright as underdogs.  

We actually issued individual Money Line selections on each of these five teams in individual plays, because we feel like three of these teams should pull the actual upset.

The five games where we have studied the personnel groupings and looked for extras like teams playing a sandwich game between two more important games involve these games.

 

Marshall over Cincinnati

Duke over Virginia Tech

Kansas State over Oklahoma State

Baylor over Iowa State

North Carolina State over Florida State.

 

You can play each of these game as singular money line plays and get better than +120 odds on each team.

At the time of this writing, you can get Duke at +125 at a couple of the big books in Nevada.  You can get North Carolina State at +210.  Both Marshall and Kansas State can be found at +165.  Baylor can be wagered at +130.

What if you began combining these teams into 2 or 3 game parlays?  The potential odds are incredible.  Yes, the potential for winning is minimal, but for a little pretend money, you could make a pretend killing if you pick the right 2 or 3 teams.

There’s the rub.  If you play all five teams as single money line upset choices, you stand a decent chance of making a minor imaginary profit.  But, if just one of the potential big payout parlays pays off, you could make five times what you put in.

Let’s look at some examples.  We can’t list them all, as there are too many combinations.

 

 

2-Game Parlays

Marshall over Cincinnati and Duke over Virginia Tech: +485

Marshall over Cincinnati and Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: +496

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St. & North Carolina St. over Florida St.: +722

 

 

3-Game Parlays

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St., Baylor over Iowa St., & NC ST. over Florida St.: +1790

Marshall, Kansas St., and North Carolina St. all in upset wins: +2036

Have fun making combinations of these games.  Here’s the complete crazy parlay where you combine all five of these teams.

If you bet Marshall, Kansas St., North Carolina St., Baylor, and Duke all to win in upsets, the money line parlay payout would be:

 

+10953

Yes, if you were crazy enough to put $100 in Nevada on these five teams to win in upset games, and all five pulled off their upsets, you would cash a winning ticket of $11,053!

If you only put $10 on this parlay, you could cash $1,105.

If you just put that same dollar you use playing Mega Millions, and it won, you’d pocket more than $110, and your chances to win on this parlay are multitudes better than winning the lottery.

—————————————————————————————————————————————-

Did you hear about the guy that bet 89 cents on a ton of games last week on a parlay, and won every game heading into Monday Night Football.  Had the Washington Redskins won that final bet for him, he would have taken that 89 cents and cashed in a half million dollars!

When the Bears won the game, the naive media announced that the poor sap lost.  Without knowing for sure, we bet that this guy won big, maybe even 6-figures.

The media is never the best place to receive information on anything.  In this case, we are confident that the bettor hedged his wager on Monday morning.  Obviously, he probably didn’t have $100,000 to invest on the MNF game, but he probably found a willing money lender to purchase that ticket for 100 grand.

If you had $100,000, and you bought that ticket, then the guy that spent 89 cents just won $99,999.19 on his wager, and he leaves quite happy as a big winner, at least until he realizes his tax bracket just went way up.

The person that bought that potential half-million dollar ticket then played as many different tickets he needed on Monday afternoon until he had $200,000 in wagers on the Bears.  It would have taken him going to multiple books, but it is easily done.

Let’s look at the money lender on Monday afternoon.

  1. $100,000 spent buying the ticket

  2. $200,000 spent buying tickets on the Bears.

If the Redskins had won the last game on that parlay, the lender collects the half million dollar payout and profits by $200,000 since he invested $300,000.

If the Bears had won (which they did), then the half-million dollar parlay is trashed, but the lender cashes in a winning ticket on his Bears bet and receives $400,000.  The profit is only $100,000 in this case.

Technically, the lender could have places additional bets on the Redskins, which would have brought his guaranteed payout to around $135,000 no matter what the outcome, but we just wanted to show you an example in hedging to get a guaranteed win.

If you had a 50% chance of realizing a 33% of 67% return on your investment in 24 hours, you are guaranteeing yourself an average ROI of 50% in one day!  Now, how many of you with some seed money are planning to relocate to Nevada and do some hedge playing?  Alas, we here are more like the 89 cent investor.

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