This week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
| Home |
Visitor |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
| Arkansas St. |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
9.0 |
8.7 |
10.4 |
| Houston |
Memphis |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
| Old Dominion |
Western Kentucky |
-8.3 |
-5.2 |
-9.3 |
| Middle Tennessee |
Marshall |
-1.8 |
-2.2 |
-3.0 |
| Nevada |
Air Force |
-2.8 |
-1.4 |
-1.4 |
| New Mexico |
Colorado St. |
-12.0 |
-11.0 |
-11.5 |
| Army |
Temple |
8.3 |
7.8 |
9.1 |
| Wisconsin |
Maryland |
24.0 |
18.8 |
22.7 |
| Texas Tech |
Iowa St. |
0.7 |
-0.1 |
-1.0 |
| Toledo |
Akron |
15.0 |
12.3 |
15.4 |
| Missouri |
Idaho |
16.4 |
12.4 |
14.6 |
| Northwestern |
Iowa |
4.2 |
2.4 |
4.6 |
| Connecticut |
Tulsa |
-11.3 |
-8.5 |
-10.9 |
| Florida St. |
Louisville |
13.9 |
13.3 |
13.1 |
| Rutgers |
Purdue |
-6.2 |
-5.9 |
-7.4 |
| Duke |
Pittsburgh |
7.3 |
5.9 |
6.8 |
| Virginia |
Boston College |
6.3 |
5.6 |
7.0 |
| Georgia St. |
Troy |
-5.0 |
-5.9 |
-4.3 |
| Eastern Michigan |
Western Michigan |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
-1.6 |
| Ohio U |
Kent St. |
14.1 |
14.2 |
14.5 |
| Bowling Green |
Northern Illinois |
-5.6 |
-4.4 |
-5.4 |
| Miami (O) |
Buffalo |
7.3 |
6.8 |
6.2 |
| Ball St. |
Central Michigan |
-12.4 |
-11.0 |
-11.7 |
| Minnesota |
Illinois |
19.7 |
19.1 |
20.7 |
| Virginia Tech |
North Carolina |
18.4 |
18.7 |
20.0 |
| Michigan St. |
Indiana |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1.6 |
| Alabama |
Tennessee |
37.4 |
34.7 |
38.2 |
| Appalachian St. |
Coastal Carolina |
30.8 |
27.5 |
29.5 |
| Navy |
Central Florida |
-11.4 |
-12.6 |
-12.5 |
| Miami (Fla.) |
Syracuse |
13.7 |
13.3 |
13.9 |
| Massachusetts |
Georgia Southern |
10.5 |
8.3 |
10.9 |
| Utah |
Arizona St. |
4.4 |
7.0 |
4.9 |
| Kansas St. |
Oklahoma |
-6.6 |
-5.6 |
-7.0 |
| TCU |
Kansas |
42.5 |
37.0 |
44.1 |
| Texas |
Oklahoma St. |
-7.9 |
-6.1 |
-8.5 |
| UCLA |
Oregon |
0.1 |
2.1 |
0.5 |
| Cincinnati |
SMU |
-9.3 |
-7.2 |
-8.5 |
| Mississippi St. |
Kentucky |
-0.3 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
| South Alabama |
Louisiana-Monroe |
8.0 |
9.8 |
9.2 |
| Florida Atlantic |
North Texas |
8.7 |
10.0 |
9.3 |
| UNLV |
Utah St. |
-3.1 |
0.0 |
-2.4 |
| Charlotte |
UAB |
1.7 |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
| Tulane |
South Florida |
-14.1 |
-12.5 |
-14.8 |
| UTSA |
Rice |
19.8 |
20.7 |
21.2 |
| Louisiana Tech |
Southern Miss. |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
| East Carolina |
BYU |
-9.0 |
-6.7 |
-9.0 |
| Ole Miss |
LSU |
-6.3 |
-6.1 |
-8.6 |
| Arkansas |
Auburn |
-18.6 |
-17.2 |
-19.1 |
| Georgia Tech |
Wake Forest |
11.7 |
10.6 |
10.5 |
| Penn St. |
Michigan |
18.2 |
15.9 |
19.9 |
| Notre Dame |
USC |
2.3 |
1.5 |
3.2 |
| Baylor |
West Virginia |
-8.3 |
-7.0 |
-8.7 |
| California |
Arizona |
3.9 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
| Boise St. |
Wyoming |
11.3 |
10.9 |
12.4 |
| San Diego St. |
Fresno St. |
9.4 |
11.0 |
9.7 |
| Washington St. |
Colorado |
10.7 |
9.8 |
12.6 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Retrodictive Ratings–Ranks the teams based on what they have done to date. This rating is better to gauge what the teams have done so far rather than how they might fare going forward.
| PiRate Retrodictive |
| # |
Team |
Rating |
| 1 |
Alabama |
132.7 |
| 2 |
Penn St. |
130.8 |
| 3 |
Georgia |
130.6 |
| 4 |
TCU |
129.3 |
| 5 |
Clemson |
128.7 |
| 6 |
Ohio St. |
128.5 |
| 7 |
Wisconsin |
127.9 |
| 8 |
Miami (Fla) |
127.0 |
| 9 |
Notre Dame |
126.7 |
| 10 |
USC |
126.4 |
| 11 |
Central Florida |
126.2 |
| 12 |
Washington |
125.8 |
| 13 |
Oklahoma St. |
125.1 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma |
124.9 |
| 15 |
Stanford |
124.2 |
| 16 |
Michigan St. |
123.7 |
| 17 |
Michigan |
123.3 |
| 18 |
North Carolina St. |
123.0 |
| 19 |
Washington St. |
122.2 |
| 20 |
Virginia Tech |
121.6 |
| 21 |
South Florida |
121.5 |
| 22 |
Texas A&M |
121.2 |
| 23 |
Auburn |
120.8 |
| 24 |
Iowa |
119.9 |
| 25 |
San Diego St. |
119.4 |
| 26 |
Mississippi St. |
118.9 |
| 27 |
Florida St. |
118.8 |
| 28 |
Memphis |
118.6 |
| 29 |
Wake Forest |
117.3 |
| 30 |
Texas Tech |
116.8 |
| 31 |
West Virginia |
116.4 |
| 32 |
LSU |
116.3 |
| 33 |
Kentucky |
116.1 |
| 34 |
Boise St. |
115.9 |
| 35 |
Navy |
115.2 |
| 36 |
South Carolina |
114.7 |
| 37 |
Virginia |
113.8 |
| 38 |
Toledo |
113.1 |
| 39 |
Iowa St. |
112.0 |
| 40 |
Utah |
110.9 |
| 41 |
Oregon |
110.5 |
| 42 |
California |
110.1 |
| 43 |
Texas |
110.0 |
| 44 |
Arizona St. |
109.8 |
| 45 |
Georgia Tech |
109.5 |
| 46 |
Florida |
109.2 |
| 47 |
Louisville |
108.7 |
| 48 |
Arizona |
108.5 |
| 49 |
Purdue |
107.7 |
| 50 |
Northwestern |
107.4 |
| 51 |
Houston |
106.9 |
| 52 |
Duke |
106.3 |
| 53 |
Colorado St. |
105.8 |
| 54 |
Indiana |
104.6 |
| 55 |
Syracuse |
103.9 |
| 56 |
UCLA |
103.4 |
| 57 |
Marshall |
103.2 |
| 58 |
Western Michigan |
103.1 |
| 59 |
Fresno St. |
103.0 |
| 60 |
Colorado |
102.8 |
| 61 |
Minnesota |
102.1 |
| 62 |
SMU |
101.8 |
| 63 |
Maryland |
101.6 |
| 64 |
Northern Illinois |
101.5 |
| 65 |
Boston College |
100.9 |
| 66 |
Appalachian St. |
100.4 |
| 67 |
Troy |
100.0 |
| 68 |
Kansas St. |
99.7 |
| 69 |
Army |
98.6 |
| 70 |
Ole Miss |
97.2 |
| 71 |
North Texas |
97.1 |
| 72 |
Tennessee |
96.7 |
| 73 |
Nebraska |
96.4 |
| 74 |
Louisiana Tech |
96.3 |
| 75 |
Vanderbilt |
95.6 |
| 76 |
Southern Miss. |
95.2 |
| 77 |
Florida Atlantic |
95.0 |
| 78 |
Tulane |
94.8 |
| 79 |
Akron |
94.6 |
| 80 |
Wyoming |
94.5 |
| 81 |
Arkansas |
92.9 |
| 82 |
Ohio |
92.8 |
| 83 |
Western Kentucky |
92.6 |
| 84 |
Air Force |
92.0 |
| 85 |
Arkansas St. |
91.8 |
| 86 |
Tulsa |
91.7 |
| 87 |
Pittsburgh |
91.3 |
| 88 |
New Mexico |
91.1 |
| 89 |
UTSA |
90.7 |
| 90 |
Temple |
90.2 |
| 91 |
Utah St. |
89.9 |
| 92 |
North Carolina |
89.5 |
| 93 |
Buffalo |
89.3 |
| 94 |
Florida Int’l. |
88.7 |
| 95 |
UAB |
88.1 |
| 96 |
Middle Tennessee |
87.0 |
| 97 |
Cincinnati |
85.7 |
| 98 |
Rutgers |
85.1 |
| 99 |
New Mexico St. |
84.2 |
| 100 |
Eastern Michigan |
83.9 |
| 101 |
UL-Monroe |
83.6 |
| 102 |
Georgia St. |
83.4 |
| 103 |
UL-Lafayette |
81.9 |
| 104 |
Illinois |
81.2 |
| 105 |
UNLV |
81.0 |
| 106 |
Central Michigan |
80.7 |
| 107 |
Miami (O) |
80.5 |
| 108 |
Baylor |
80.4 |
| 109 |
Missouri |
80.4 |
| 110 |
South Alabama |
80.3 |
| 111 |
Oregon St. |
79.9 |
| 112 |
Hawaii |
79.7 |
| 113 |
BYU |
79.6 |
| 114 |
Connecticut |
79.5 |
| 115 |
Idaho |
79.4 |
| 116 |
Nevada |
78.9 |
| 117 |
Kent St. |
78.7 |
| 118 |
Old Dominion |
78.1 |
| 119 |
East Carolina |
77.8 |
| 120 |
Bowling Green |
77.5 |
| 121 |
Ball St. |
77.0 |
| 122 |
Kansas |
76.2 |
| 123 |
Rice |
75.7 |
| 124 |
Georgia Southern |
75.3 |
| 125 |
Massachusetts |
75.1 |
| 126 |
Coastal Carolina |
74.6 |
| 127 |
San Jose St. |
74.2 |
| 128 |
UTEP |
73.5 |
| 129 |
Texas St. |
72.6 |
| 130 |
Charlotte |
71.9 |
Predictive Ratings–This rating is a forward-looking rating trying to predict the outcome of future games. Unlike other predictive ratings, ours are geared toward only each teams’ next game, because we adjust our ratings based on many factors that cannot be reflected just from the score of the games. A team that is predicted to win by 14 points that wins by exactly 14 points might be expected to retain an identical rating the following week, but we adjust for things like depth, how the score became a 14-point victory, how the teams’ past opponents fared during the week (more weight given to recent games than early games), etc.
| PiRate Ratings |
| # |
Team |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| 1 |
Alabama |
138.7 |
134.4 |
137.5 |
136.9 |
| 2 |
Ohio St. |
135.6 |
133.0 |
135.5 |
134.7 |
| 3 |
Penn St. |
128.7 |
126.6 |
129.6 |
128.3 |
| 4 |
Washington |
127.0 |
124.3 |
127.4 |
126.2 |
| 5 |
Clemson |
127.2 |
124.6 |
126.7 |
126.2 |
| 6 |
Georgia |
125.5 |
125.9 |
125.9 |
125.8 |
| 7 |
Oklahoma St. |
124.7 |
123.4 |
125.7 |
124.6 |
| 8 |
Auburn |
124.7 |
122.7 |
124.7 |
124.0 |
| 9 |
Florida St. |
122.8 |
121.4 |
121.6 |
122.0 |
| 10 |
Oklahoma |
121.9 |
120.8 |
122.3 |
121.7 |
| 11 |
Miami |
121.9 |
119.8 |
121.3 |
121.0 |
| 12 |
Wisconsin |
121.9 |
118.5 |
120.5 |
120.3 |
| 13 |
Stanford |
120.9 |
119.5 |
120.3 |
120.2 |
| 14 |
T C U |
120.8 |
118.4 |
121.3 |
120.1 |
| 15 |
U S C |
119.1 |
118.4 |
118.9 |
118.8 |
| 16 |
Virginia Tech |
118.9 |
118.3 |
119.2 |
118.8 |
| 17 |
N. Carolina St. |
118.1 |
117.4 |
118.2 |
117.9 |
| 18 |
Notre Dame |
117.9 |
116.5 |
118.6 |
117.6 |
| 19 |
Washington St. |
116.3 |
113.8 |
115.9 |
115.3 |
| 20 |
Georgia Tech |
116.4 |
113.9 |
115.0 |
115.1 |
| 21 |
L S U |
114.8 |
113.0 |
115.4 |
114.4 |
| 22 |
Texas |
113.7 |
114.3 |
114.2 |
114.1 |
| 23 |
Central Florida |
112.9 |
114.3 |
114.3 |
113.9 |
| 24 |
Michigan |
114.0 |
114.2 |
113.2 |
113.8 |
| 25 |
Florida |
113.8 |
112.9 |
113.0 |
113.2 |
| 26 |
South Florida |
112.3 |
111.0 |
113.5 |
112.3 |
| 27 |
Kansas St. |
112.3 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
| 28 |
Louisville |
111.9 |
111.1 |
111.6 |
111.5 |
| 29 |
Northwestern |
111.3 |
109.6 |
111.4 |
110.8 |
| 30 |
Kentucky |
111.2 |
110.0 |
110.5 |
110.6 |
| 31 |
West Virginia |
110.2 |
110.7 |
110.5 |
110.5 |
| 32 |
Syracuse |
111.1 |
109.5 |
110.4 |
110.3 |
| 33 |
Iowa |
110.0 |
110.2 |
109.8 |
110.0 |
| 34 |
Iowa State |
108.9 |
109.4 |
109.9 |
109.4 |
| 35 |
Texas A&M |
109.5 |
107.2 |
108.8 |
108.5 |
| 36 |
Mississippi St. |
107.9 |
108.5 |
108.1 |
108.2 |
| 37 |
S. Carolina |
108.1 |
107.1 |
107.2 |
107.5 |
| 38 |
Utah |
106.7 |
108.3 |
106.9 |
107.3 |
| 39 |
Colorado |
108.6 |
107.0 |
106.3 |
107.3 |
| 40 |
Duke |
108.0 |
106.9 |
106.8 |
107.2 |
| 41 |
Wake Forest |
107.7 |
106.3 |
107.5 |
107.1 |
| 42 |
Oregon |
107.8 |
105.4 |
106.7 |
106.6 |
| 43 |
Texas Tech |
106.6 |
106.3 |
105.9 |
106.3 |
| 44 |
Colo. State |
106.1 |
104.9 |
106.2 |
105.7 |
| 45 |
Indiana |
105.1 |
105.0 |
105.7 |
105.3 |
| 46 |
Virginia |
105.3 |
104.6 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
| 47 |
Arizona St. |
105.3 |
104.3 |
105.0 |
104.9 |
| 48 |
Minnesota |
104.7 |
105.5 |
104.1 |
104.8 |
| 49 |
U C L A |
105.0 |
104.5 |
104.2 |
104.6 |
| 50 |
California |
105.8 |
103.4 |
104.1 |
104.4 |
| 51 |
Michigan St. |
103.6 |
105.4 |
104.3 |
104.4 |
| 52 |
Ole Miss |
105.5 |
103.9 |
103.8 |
104.4 |
| 53 |
Arizona |
104.9 |
103.7 |
103.8 |
104.1 |
| 54 |
Memphis |
104.3 |
103.7 |
104.5 |
104.1 |
| 55 |
Purdue |
103.9 |
103.7 |
104.5 |
104.0 |
| 56 |
Pittsburgh |
103.7 |
104.0 |
103.0 |
103.6 |
| 57 |
Boise St. |
103.9 |
102.2 |
103.8 |
103.3 |
| 58 |
Tennessee |
104.3 |
102.7 |
102.3 |
103.1 |
| 59 |
Arkansas |
103.2 |
102.5 |
102.5 |
102.8 |
| 60 |
N. Carolina |
103.4 |
102.6 |
102.2 |
102.7 |
| 61 |
Boston College |
102.0 |
102.0 |
101.9 |
102.0 |
| 62 |
Vanderbilt |
102.3 |
101.5 |
101.0 |
101.6 |
| 63 |
Houston |
101.7 |
101.2 |
101.6 |
101.5 |
| 64 |
Maryland |
101.0 |
102.7 |
100.8 |
101.5 |
| 65 |
Navy |
101.2 |
101.9 |
101.3 |
101.4 |
| 66 |
San Diego St. |
101.0 |
101.1 |
101.9 |
101.3 |
| 67 |
Nebraska |
100.5 |
101.6 |
99.4 |
100.5 |
| 68 |
Toledo |
99.4 |
99.4 |
100.6 |
99.8 |
| 69 |
Baylor |
98.9 |
100.7 |
98.8 |
99.5 |
| 70 |
Western Michigan |
99.4 |
98.2 |
100.5 |
99.4 |
| 71 |
SMU |
98.5 |
98.7 |
98.9 |
98.7 |
| 72 |
Army |
98.1 |
98.1 |
98.7 |
98.3 |
| 73 |
Tulsa |
98.4 |
98.2 |
98.1 |
98.2 |
| 74 |
Appalachian St. |
98.1 |
96.2 |
98.2 |
97.5 |
| 75 |
Eastern Michigan |
95.7 |
95.2 |
95.9 |
95.6 |
| 76 |
Missouri |
96.6 |
94.3 |
95.5 |
95.5 |
| 77 |
Tulane |
95.2 |
95.4 |
95.7 |
95.4 |
| 78 |
Wyoming |
95.6 |
94.3 |
94.4 |
94.7 |
| 79 |
Rutgers |
94.7 |
94.8 |
94.1 |
94.5 |
| 80 |
Fresno St. |
94.5 |
93.1 |
95.2 |
94.3 |
| 81 |
U T S A |
92.9 |
94.9 |
94.4 |
94.0 |
| 82 |
Troy |
93.3 |
93.6 |
92.6 |
93.2 |
| 83 |
W. Kentucky |
92.6 |
92.1 |
93.7 |
92.8 |
| 84 |
Florida Atlantic |
91.4 |
94.1 |
92.7 |
92.7 |
| 85 |
Oregon St. |
93.0 |
92.7 |
91.6 |
92.4 |
| 86 |
Marshall |
91.3 |
92.7 |
93.1 |
92.4 |
| 87 |
Air Force |
92.1 |
92.7 |
92.3 |
92.4 |
| 88 |
Temple |
92.2 |
92.8 |
92.1 |
92.4 |
| 89 |
BYU |
92.1 |
91.7 |
91.7 |
91.8 |
| 90 |
Arkansas St. |
90.8 |
92.1 |
92.3 |
91.7 |
| 91 |
Utah St. |
92.2 |
91.3 |
91.7 |
91.7 |
| 92 |
Ohio U |
90.9 |
92.3 |
91.6 |
91.6 |
| 93 |
New Mexico |
91.1 |
90.9 |
91.7 |
91.2 |
| 94 |
Northern Illinois |
90.6 |
90.4 |
91.3 |
90.7 |
| 95 |
Miami (O) |
89.6 |
91.6 |
90.8 |
90.7 |
| 96 |
Louisiana Tech |
88.7 |
90.3 |
89.6 |
89.6 |
| 97 |
Central Michigan |
88.9 |
89.7 |
89.4 |
89.3 |
| 98 |
Akron |
88.0 |
90.5 |
88.7 |
89.1 |
| 99 |
N. Mexico St. |
88.5 |
86.5 |
88.8 |
87.9 |
| 100 |
Illinois |
87.9 |
89.4 |
86.4 |
87.9 |
| 101 |
Cincinnati |
86.7 |
88.9 |
87.9 |
87.8 |
| 102 |
Southern Miss. |
87.1 |
88.4 |
87.5 |
87.6 |
| 103 |
Middle Tennessee |
87.0 |
88.0 |
87.6 |
87.5 |
| 104 |
Nevada |
86.3 |
88.3 |
87.9 |
87.5 |
| 105 |
S. Alabama |
86.5 |
89.0 |
86.8 |
87.4 |
| 106 |
U N L V |
86.6 |
88.8 |
86.8 |
87.4 |
| 107 |
Buffalo |
85.4 |
87.7 |
87.6 |
86.9 |
| 108 |
N. Texas |
85.7 |
87.1 |
86.3 |
86.4 |
| 109 |
Hawaii |
86.0 |
87.0 |
85.8 |
86.3 |
| 110 |
Georgia St. |
85.8 |
85.2 |
85.8 |
85.6 |
| 111 |
UL-Lafayette |
84.9 |
86.3 |
84.9 |
85.4 |
| 112 |
Massachusetts |
85.6 |
84.9 |
85.5 |
85.3 |
| 113 |
Connecticut |
84.1 |
86.7 |
84.2 |
85.0 |
| 114 |
Idaho |
83.2 |
84.9 |
84.0 |
84.0 |
| 115 |
Florida Int’l. |
83.5 |
83.8 |
84.3 |
83.9 |
| 116 |
Old Dominion |
82.3 |
85.0 |
82.3 |
83.2 |
| 117 |
Bowling Green |
82.6 |
83.5 |
83.3 |
83.1 |
| 118 |
Kansas |
81.2 |
84.4 |
80.2 |
82.0 |
| 119 |
UL-Monroe |
81.0 |
81.7 |
80.0 |
80.9 |
| 120 |
East Carolina |
79.6 |
81.5 |
79.2 |
80.1 |
| 121 |
Kent St. |
79.2 |
80.7 |
79.6 |
79.8 |
| 122 |
Georgia Southern |
77.5 |
79.1 |
77.1 |
77.9 |
| 123 |
San Jose St. |
76.7 |
76.8 |
76.0 |
76.5 |
| 124 |
Rice |
75.1 |
76.2 |
75.2 |
75.5 |
| 125 |
Ball St. |
74.0 |
76.2 |
75.2 |
75.1 |
| 126 |
UAB |
72.4 |
75.8 |
74.5 |
74.2 |
| 127 |
Charlotte |
72.1 |
74.3 |
72.3 |
72.9 |
| 128 |
U T E P |
71.8 |
74.8 |
72.0 |
72.9 |
| 129 |
Texas St. |
70.4 |
72.8 |
69.2 |
70.8 |
| 130 |
Coastal Carolina |
69.8 |
71.2 |
71.1 |
70.7 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
| American Athletic Conference |
| East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
AAC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Central Florida |
3-0 |
5-0 |
112.9 |
114.3 |
114.3 |
113.9 |
| South Florida |
3-0 |
6-0 |
112.3 |
111.0 |
113.5 |
112.3 |
| Temple |
1-3 |
3-4 |
92.2 |
92.8 |
92.1 |
92.4 |
| Cincinnati |
0-3 |
2-5 |
86.7 |
88.9 |
87.9 |
87.8 |
| Connecticut |
1-3 |
2-4 |
84.1 |
86.7 |
84.2 |
85.0 |
| East Carolina |
1-3 |
1-6 |
79.6 |
81.5 |
79.2 |
80.1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
AAC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Memphis |
2-1 |
5-1 |
104.3 |
103.7 |
104.5 |
104.1 |
| Houston |
2-1 |
4-2 |
101.7 |
101.2 |
101.6 |
101.5 |
| Navy |
3-1 |
5-1 |
101.2 |
101.9 |
101.3 |
101.4 |
| SMU |
1-1 |
4-2 |
98.5 |
98.7 |
98.9 |
98.7 |
| Tulsa |
1-2 |
2-5 |
98.4 |
98.2 |
98.1 |
98.2 |
| Tulane |
1-1 |
3-3 |
95.2 |
95.4 |
95.7 |
95.4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| AAC Averages |
|
|
97.3 |
97.8 |
97.6 |
97.6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Atlantic Coast Conference |
| Atlantic Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
ACC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Clemson |
4-1 |
6-1 |
127.2 |
124.6 |
126.7 |
126.2 |
| Florida St. |
2-2 |
2-3 |
122.8 |
121.4 |
121.6 |
122.0 |
| N. Carolina St. |
4-0 |
6-1 |
118.1 |
117.4 |
118.2 |
117.9 |
| Louisville |
1-3 |
4-3 |
111.9 |
111.1 |
111.6 |
111.5 |
| Syracuse |
2-1 |
4-3 |
111.1 |
109.5 |
110.4 |
110.3 |
| Wake Forest |
1-2 |
4-2 |
107.7 |
106.3 |
107.5 |
107.1 |
| Boston College |
1-3 |
3-4 |
102.0 |
102.0 |
101.9 |
102.0 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Coastal Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
ACC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Miami |
3-0 |
5-0 |
121.9 |
119.8 |
121.3 |
121.0 |
| Virginia Tech |
1-1 |
5-1 |
118.9 |
118.3 |
119.2 |
118.8 |
| Georgia Tech |
2-1 |
3-2 |
116.4 |
113.9 |
115.0 |
115.1 |
| Duke |
1-3 |
4-3 |
108.0 |
106.9 |
106.8 |
107.2 |
| Virginia |
2-0 |
5-1 |
105.3 |
104.6 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
| Pittsburgh |
0-3 |
2-5 |
103.7 |
104.0 |
103.0 |
103.6 |
| N. Carolina |
0-4 |
1-6 |
103.4 |
102.6 |
102.2 |
102.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ACC Averages |
|
|
112.8 |
111.6 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Big 12 Conference |
| Team |
B12 |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Oklahoma St. |
2-1 |
5-1 |
124.7 |
123.4 |
125.7 |
124.6 |
| Oklahoma |
2-1 |
5-1 |
121.9 |
120.8 |
122.3 |
121.7 |
| T C U |
3-0 |
6-0 |
120.8 |
118.4 |
121.3 |
120.1 |
| Texas |
2-1 |
3-3 |
113.7 |
114.3 |
114.2 |
114.1 |
| Kansas St. |
1-2 |
3-3 |
112.3 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
| West Virginia |
2-1 |
4-2 |
110.2 |
110.7 |
110.5 |
110.5 |
| Iowa State |
2-1 |
4-2 |
108.9 |
109.4 |
109.9 |
109.4 |
| Texas Tech |
1-2 |
4-2 |
106.6 |
106.3 |
105.9 |
106.3 |
| Baylor |
0-3 |
0-6 |
98.9 |
100.7 |
98.8 |
99.5 |
| Kansas |
0-3 |
1-5 |
81.2 |
84.4 |
80.2 |
82.0 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Big 12 Averages |
|
|
109.9 |
110.1 |
110.1 |
110.0 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Big Ten Conference |
| East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
BTen |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Ohio St. |
4-0 |
6-1 |
135.6 |
133.0 |
135.5 |
134.7 |
| Penn St. |
3-0 |
6-0 |
128.7 |
126.6 |
129.6 |
128.3 |
| Michigan |
2-1 |
5-1 |
114.0 |
114.2 |
113.2 |
113.8 |
| Indiana |
0-3 |
3-3 |
105.1 |
105.0 |
105.7 |
105.3 |
| Michigan St. |
3-0 |
5-1 |
103.6 |
105.4 |
104.3 |
104.4 |
| Maryland |
1-2 |
3-3 |
101.0 |
102.7 |
100.8 |
101.5 |
| Rutgers |
1-2 |
2-4 |
94.7 |
94.8 |
94.1 |
94.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
BTen |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Wisconsin |
3-0 |
6-0 |
121.9 |
118.5 |
120.5 |
120.3 |
| Northwestern |
1-2 |
3-3 |
111.3 |
109.6 |
111.4 |
110.8 |
| Iowa |
1-2 |
4-2 |
110.0 |
110.2 |
109.8 |
110.0 |
| Minnesota |
0-3 |
3-3 |
104.7 |
105.5 |
104.1 |
104.8 |
| Purdue |
1-2 |
3-3 |
103.9 |
103.7 |
104.5 |
104.0 |
| Nebraska |
2-2 |
3-4 |
100.5 |
101.6 |
99.4 |
100.5 |
| Illinois |
0-3 |
2-4 |
87.9 |
89.4 |
86.4 |
87.9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Big Ten Averages |
|
|
108.8 |
108.6 |
108.5 |
108.6 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Conference USA |
| East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
CUSA |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| W. Kentucky |
2-1 |
4-2 |
92.6 |
92.1 |
93.7 |
92.8 |
| Florida Atlantic |
2-0 |
3-3 |
91.4 |
94.1 |
92.7 |
92.7 |
| Marshall |
2-0 |
5-1 |
91.3 |
92.7 |
93.1 |
92.4 |
| Middle Tennessee |
1-2 |
3-4 |
87.0 |
88.0 |
87.6 |
87.5 |
| Florida Int’l. |
2-1 |
4-2 |
83.5 |
83.8 |
84.3 |
83.9 |
| Old Dominion |
0-2 |
2-4 |
82.3 |
85.0 |
82.3 |
83.2 |
| Charlotte |
0-3 |
0-7 |
72.1 |
74.3 |
72.3 |
72.9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
CUSA |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| U T S A |
0-2 |
3-2 |
92.9 |
94.9 |
94.4 |
94.0 |
| Louisiana Tech |
1-1 |
3-3 |
88.7 |
90.3 |
89.6 |
89.6 |
| Southern Miss. |
2-1 |
4-2 |
87.1 |
88.4 |
87.5 |
87.6 |
| N. Texas |
3-0 |
4-2 |
85.7 |
87.1 |
86.3 |
86.4 |
| Rice |
1-1 |
1-5 |
75.1 |
76.2 |
75.2 |
75.5 |
| U T E P |
0-3 |
0-7 |
71.8 |
74.8 |
72.0 |
72.9 |
| UAB |
2-1 |
4-2 |
72.4 |
75.8 |
74.5 |
74.2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| CUSA Averages |
|
|
83.9 |
85.5 |
84.7 |
84.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FBS Independents |
| Team |
|
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Notre Dame |
|
5-1 |
117.9 |
116.5 |
118.6 |
117.6 |
| Army |
|
5-2 |
98.1 |
98.1 |
98.7 |
98.3 |
| BYU |
|
1-6 |
92.1 |
91.7 |
91.7 |
91.8 |
| Massachusetts |
|
0-6 |
85.6 |
84.9 |
85.5 |
85.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Indep. Averages |
|
|
98.4 |
97.8 |
98.6 |
98.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mid-American Conference |
| East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
MAC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Ohio U |
2-1 |
5-2 |
92.0 |
93.3 |
92.8 |
92.7 |
| Miami (O) |
1-2 |
2-5 |
88.2 |
90.3 |
89.3 |
89.3 |
| Akron |
3-0 |
4-3 |
88.0 |
90.5 |
88.7 |
89.1 |
| Buffalo |
1-2 |
3-4 |
85.4 |
87.7 |
87.6 |
86.9 |
| Bowling Green |
1-2 |
1-6 |
81.5 |
82.5 |
82.1 |
82.0 |
| Kent St. |
1-2 |
2-5 |
80.3 |
81.7 |
80.8 |
80.9 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
MAC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Toledo |
2-0 |
5-1 |
100.6 |
100.5 |
101.9 |
101.0 |
| Western Michigan |
2-1 |
4-3 |
99.4 |
98.2 |
100.5 |
99.4 |
| Eastern Michigan |
0-2 |
2-4 |
95.9 |
95.5 |
96.3 |
95.9 |
| Northern Illinois |
2-0 |
4-2 |
90.9 |
90.7 |
91.6 |
91.0 |
| Central Michigan |
1-2 |
3-4 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
88.1 |
88.1 |
| Ball St. |
0-2 |
2-4 |
74.2 |
76.4 |
75.4 |
75.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MAC Averages |
|
|
88.7 |
89.7 |
89.6 |
89.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Mountain West Conference |
| Mountain Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
MWC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Colo. State |
3-0 |
5-2 |
106.1 |
104.9 |
106.2 |
105.7 |
| Boise St. |
2-0 |
4-2 |
103.9 |
102.2 |
103.8 |
103.3 |
| Wyoming |
2-0 |
4-2 |
95.6 |
94.3 |
94.4 |
94.7 |
| Air Force |
1-2 |
2-4 |
92.1 |
92.7 |
92.3 |
92.4 |
| Utah St. |
1-2 |
3-4 |
92.2 |
91.3 |
91.7 |
91.7 |
| New Mexico |
1-2 |
3-3 |
91.1 |
90.9 |
91.7 |
91.2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
MWC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| San Diego St. |
2-1 |
6-1 |
101.0 |
101.1 |
101.9 |
101.3 |
| Fresno St. |
3-0 |
4-2 |
94.5 |
93.1 |
95.2 |
94.3 |
| Nevada |
1-2 |
1-6 |
86.3 |
88.3 |
87.9 |
87.5 |
| U N L V |
1-2 |
2-4 |
86.6 |
88.8 |
86.8 |
87.4 |
| Hawaii |
1-3 |
3-4 |
86.0 |
87.0 |
85.8 |
86.3 |
| San Jose St. |
0-4 |
1-7 |
76.7 |
76.8 |
76.0 |
76.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MWC Averages |
|
|
92.7 |
92.6 |
92.8 |
92.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Pac-12 Conference |
| North Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
P12 |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Washington |
3-1 |
6-1 |
127.0 |
124.3 |
127.4 |
126.2 |
| Stanford |
4-1 |
5-2 |
120.9 |
119.5 |
120.3 |
120.2 |
| Washington St. |
3-1 |
6-1 |
116.3 |
113.8 |
115.9 |
115.3 |
| Oregon |
1-3 |
4-3 |
107.8 |
105.4 |
106.7 |
106.6 |
| California |
1-3 |
4-3 |
105.8 |
103.4 |
104.1 |
104.4 |
| Oregon St. |
0-4 |
1-6 |
93.0 |
92.7 |
91.6 |
92.4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| South Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
P12 |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| U S C |
4-1 |
6-1 |
119.1 |
118.4 |
118.9 |
118.8 |
| Utah |
1-2 |
4-2 |
106.7 |
108.3 |
106.9 |
107.3 |
| Colorado |
1-3 |
4-3 |
108.6 |
107.0 |
106.3 |
107.3 |
| Arizona St. |
2-1 |
3-3 |
105.3 |
104.3 |
105.0 |
104.9 |
| U C L A |
1-2 |
3-3 |
105.0 |
104.5 |
104.2 |
104.6 |
| Arizona |
2-1 |
4-2 |
104.9 |
103.7 |
103.8 |
104.1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Pac-12 Averages |
|
|
110.0 |
108.8 |
109.3 |
109.4 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Southeastern Conference |
| East Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
SEC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Georgia |
4-0 |
7-0 |
125.5 |
125.9 |
125.9 |
125.8 |
| Florida |
3-2 |
3-3 |
113.8 |
112.9 |
113.0 |
113.2 |
| Kentucky |
2-1 |
5-1 |
111.2 |
110.0 |
110.5 |
110.6 |
| S. Carolina |
3-2 |
5-2 |
108.1 |
107.1 |
107.2 |
107.5 |
| Tennessee |
0-3 |
3-3 |
104.3 |
102.7 |
102.3 |
103.1 |
| Vanderbilt |
0-4 |
3-4 |
102.3 |
101.5 |
101.0 |
101.6 |
| Missouri |
0-4 |
1-5 |
96.6 |
94.3 |
95.5 |
95.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| West Division |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Team |
SEC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Alabama |
4-0 |
7-0 |
138.7 |
134.4 |
137.5 |
136.9 |
| Auburn |
3-1 |
5-2 |
124.7 |
122.7 |
124.7 |
124.0 |
| L S U |
2-1 |
5-2 |
114.8 |
113.0 |
115.4 |
114.4 |
| Texas A&M |
3-1 |
5-2 |
109.5 |
107.2 |
108.8 |
108.5 |
| Mississippi St. |
1-2 |
4-2 |
107.9 |
108.5 |
108.1 |
108.2 |
| Ole Miss |
1-2 |
3-3 |
105.5 |
103.9 |
103.8 |
104.4 |
| Arkansas |
0-3 |
2-4 |
103.2 |
102.5 |
102.5 |
102.8 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| SEC Averages |
|
|
111.9 |
110.5 |
111.2 |
111.2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sunbelt Conference |
| Team |
SBC |
Overall |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| Appalachian St. |
3-0 |
4-2 |
98.1 |
96.2 |
98.2 |
97.5 |
| Troy |
1-1 |
4-2 |
93.3 |
93.6 |
92.6 |
93.2 |
| Arkansas St. |
2-0 |
3-2 |
90.8 |
92.1 |
92.3 |
91.7 |
| N. Mexico St. |
1-2 |
3-4 |
88.5 |
86.5 |
88.8 |
87.9 |
| S. Alabama |
1-1 |
2-4 |
86.5 |
89.0 |
86.8 |
87.4 |
| Georgia St. |
2-0 |
3-2 |
85.8 |
85.2 |
85.8 |
85.6 |
| UL-Lafayette |
2-1 |
3-3 |
84.9 |
86.3 |
84.9 |
85.4 |
| Idaho |
1-2 |
2-4 |
83.2 |
84.9 |
84.0 |
84.0 |
| UL-Monroe |
3-1 |
3-3 |
81.0 |
81.7 |
80.0 |
80.9 |
| Georgia Southern |
0-2 |
0-5 |
77.5 |
79.1 |
77.1 |
77.9 |
| Texas St. |
0-3 |
1-6 |
70.4 |
72.8 |
69.2 |
70.8 |
| Coastal Carolina |
0-3 |
1-5 |
69.8 |
71.2 |
71.1 |
70.7 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sun Belt Averages |
|
|
84.2 |
84.9 |
84.2 |
84.4 |
| PiRate Ratings By Conference |
| # |
League |
PiRate |
Mean |
Bias |
Average |
| 1 |
ACC |
112.8 |
111.6 |
112.2 |
112.2 |
| 2 |
SEC |
111.9 |
110.5 |
111.2 |
111.2 |
| 3 |
BIG 12 |
109.9 |
110.1 |
110.1 |
110.0 |
| 4 |
PAC-12 |
110.0 |
108.8 |
109.3 |
109.4 |
| 5 |
BIG TEN |
108.8 |
108.6 |
108.5 |
108.6 |
| 6 |
INDEP. |
98.4 |
97.8 |
98.6 |
98.3 |
| 7 |
AAC |
97.3 |
97.8 |
97.6 |
97.6 |
| 8 |
MWC |
92.7 |
92.6 |
92.8 |
92.7 |
| 9 |
MAC |
88.6 |
89.6 |
89.5 |
89.3 |
| 10 |
CUSA |
83.9 |
85.5 |
84.7 |
84.7 |
| 11 |
Sun Belt |
84.2 |
84.9 |
84.2 |
84.4 |
Bowl Projections
You probably see bowl projections from many sites, and from what we have learned, many of them just throw teams into the slots based on how they think in their head without really looking at the remaining schedules and then plotting how the committees will allot teams.
The PiRates project the won-loss records of all 130 teams every week, and then look at the bowls as the committees and leagues would look at them. Thus, ours are always going to be a bit unique and will not follow in lockstep with the big sites where they really do not have a lot of time to devote to this task. This feature actually takes up more time than anything else we do other than our college basketball March Madness submissions.
Thus, rather than just state the bowl projections this week, how about we explain our selections. Also, we apologize for all the abbreviations, but apparently many of you that use your phone to access our site cannot read this feature unless we do so. Tabular data can be difficult at times to display in an aesthetically brilliant manner.
American Athletic Conference
Central Florida and South Florida could be heading to an incredible final regular season game, where the winner not only takes the East Division title, but they enter AAC Championship play undefeated as the odds-on favorite to snag the New Year’s 6 Bowl invitation. If by some strange possibility that there are less than three one-loss or undefeated Power 5 conference teams, then an undefeated UCF or USF might have an outside shot at making the playoffs.
In the West, Houston, Memphis, and Navy look to vie for the division flag, with SMU also an outside possibility. We like the Cougars to cop that flag, mostly because they host Memphis this week and should bounce back with their best game of the month.
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6
Result: With the AAC Champion predicted to make the NY6 bowl, this league needs 8 bowl eligible teams to fill its contracts, so having just 6 bowl eligible teams will open up two bowls (Birmingham & Gasparilla) to at-large entries.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Clemson’s loss to Syracuse doesn’t end the Tigers’ shot at defending their national title, as this loss was about on par with last year’s loss to Pittsburgh. However, in order to get there, CU must win out, and that includes having to beat NC State in Raleigh and then the Coastal Division champion in the ACC Championship Game. At this point, our belief is that it will not happen for the Tigers this season.
Miami has survived close games against Florida State and Georgia Tech the last two weeks. The Hurricanes have to fend off Virginia Tech and the up and coming Virginia Cavaliers, and we think Mark Richt’s team will be able to make it to the ACC Championship Game.
For the time being, our belief is that North Carolina State will hold off Clemson and then take out Miami to win the ACC Championship, but we also believe the Wolf Pack will lose one conference game, leaving them with a record of 11-2, which will keep them out of the playoffs.
Notre Dame figures in the ACC Bowl Tie-ins, as the Irish can trump any ACC team that has just one more victory than they do. In other words, if Virginia goes 10-2, and Notre Dame goes 9-3, the Irish can jump over the Cavs in the bowl pecking order.
As of today, we have Notre Dame pegged for a 10-2 finish, which will not give them a good enough slate to make the playoffs, but it will put them in the NY6 Bowl group.
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 11 (which includes Notre Dame)
Result: Under this scenario, NC State would earn the Orange Bowl bid as the ACC Champion. Notre Dame and one other team (Miami is our choice this week) would receive NY6 Bowls, while Clemson would fall to the Citrus Bowl. Under this scenario, the ACC-Notre Dame alliance would actually need 12 bowl eligible teams, while they would have just 11 bowl eligible teams. This would open up the Quick Lane Bowl for an at-large team.
Big 12
This is going to be highly ironic for this league. The Big 12 kept losing out in the playoff picture due to a lack of having a conference championship game like the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC. This year, there will be a Big 12 Championship Game, but unlike the others, it will pit the number one versus the number two team in the standings. Since the Big 12 teams all play each other, it guarantees a rematch for the title game. There is just enough parity in this league this year that the number one team can sweep the number two team or vice versa. Thus, the conference championship game could be the one factor that keeps the Big 12 out of the playoffs. Yes, ironic indeed.
TCU is the lone unbeaten left in the league, but the Horned Frogs would have to win at Oklahoma and then beat one of the Oklahoma teams a second time in order to make the playoffs. There are scenarios were TCU could lose to Oklahoma in the regular season and then win the Big 12 Championship Game and squeak into the playoffs, but for now, we believe there might be another scenario. We currently project Oklahoma State to win out, including beating Oklahoma and then taking TCU in the rematch for the conference title. At 12-1, we show Oklahoma State to be the #4 team entering the playoffs.
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 7
Result: With Oklahoma State going to the Playoffs, and with the possibility that both Oklahoma and TCU could have two losses at the end of the season, we project no other conference team to receive a bid to a NY6 bowl. With 7 projected bowl eligible teams, the league would have exactly the number needed to furnish its bowl obligations.
We came up with 7 bowl eligible teams, because we believe that two teams from among Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech will get to 6 wins, while one finishes 5-7. For now, we believe there will be exactly 78 bowl eligible teams to fill the 78 slots, so no 5-7 teams will be needed to fill spots.
Big Ten
This is perhaps the most interesting league this year. Ohio State lost early at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes were dismissed as a potential title-contender. Remember that Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech the year they won the national championship in the very first playoff season. Since losing at home to the Sooners, Urban Meyer’s team has done exactly what his Florida team did in 2008 after losing at home to Ole Miss.
Penn State is the darling team in this league at the present time, and the Nittany Lions should handle Michigan this week. However, James Franklin’s squad has road dates against Michigan State and Ohio State lurking. We believe Penn State can win in East Lansing, but Ohio State will be almost impossible to beat in Columbus. The Buckeyes have been looking forward to getting revenge over last year’s upset loss in Happy Valley, and we believe Ohio State will win convincingly and then run the table.
The end of that table could be the demise of an undefeated season for Wisconsin, much like Iowa falling to Penn State in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game. If this happens, then both Penn State and Wisconsin will be one loss teams that both lost to a playoff team. That, along with the huge fan bases, would be enough to propel both one-loss teams into NY6 bowls.
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9
Result: Putting Ohio State into the playoffs, and both Penn State and Wisconsin into NY6 bowls, the Big Ten would need 10 bowl eligible teams, while we project just 9 to make it. Thus, the Armed Forces Bowl would need to find an at-large replacement.
Conference USA
Up to now, you have seen multiple bowls that will need at-large replacements for conferences that will not supply enough bowl-eligible teams, yet you have not seen us list a league with extra teams available. CUSA is going to strike it rich this year, as this league should have quite an excess of bowl eligible teams after fulfilling the allotted contracts.
There is no overwhelming favorite in the league, even at the halfway point of the season. Because of this, CUSA should produce double digit teams with at least 6 wins.
In the East, Western Kentucky is nothing like the 2016 Hilltopper team. They are just starting to play good football, but it may be too late to win the division. Middle Tennessee’s chances to win the division ended when star quarterback Brent Stockstill went down with an injury. If he returns in time, the Blue Raiders can still salvage a 6-6 season. Florida Atlantic and Florida International have shots at taking the division title, and both should become bowl eligible.
The team that the PiRates believe will win the East is Marshall. Coach Doc Holliday is hands-down the best recruiter in the division and probably about equal with UTSA’s Frank Wilson for tops in the league. Holliday could be on the radar of bigger schools if the Mountaineers take the conference title this year.
The West race is just as interesting. North Texas and Louisiana Tech are the top two contenders, and the two teams play in Ruston on November 4. We give LT the edge due to the home field advantage.
We have to mention possibly the most incredible feat of all, one that is going virtually unnoticed outside of the league. UAB, a team that did not play for the past two years, returned to FBS football. This was akin to SMU’s death penalty. Nobody expected the Blazers to compete for bowl eligibility in their return to college football, with a 3-9 season considered the ceiling. UAB not only figures to become bowl eligible, they are still in contention for the West Division title. Coach Bill Clark needs to receive some National Coach of the Year votes for doing the almost impossible. This is like a pro sports team expansion franchise making the playoffs in their first season. Did you hear that Las Vegas Golden Knights fans?
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 10
Result: With no real shot at the NY6 bowl, CUSA will have to make do with its six bowl tie-ins. However, we show 10 bowl eligible teams. And, thanks to the fact that we show more than four bowl bids up for grabs that will need at-large teams, we believe all 10 bowl eligible teams will find spots. It is also very possible that two CUSA teams will have to face each other in a bowl game.
Independents
With Notre Dame included in the ACC bowl picture, this really only leaves Army in this discussion, since BYU and UMass will finish on the wrong side of .500. This is rather cut and dry. Army needs a 6-6 record to automatically earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl, one of the bowls that will most likely need to find an at-large opponent, most likely from CUSA.
Mid-American Conference
There is still a chance for Toledo to ascend to the top of the Group of 5 hierarchy and earn a NY6 bowl bid. The Rockets only loss was at undefeated Miami of Florida, and should Jason Candles’ team win out, and USF and UCF both lose, then Toledo could sneak in at the end and grab a Peach Bowl spot. If this happens, the MAC will still have enough bowl eligible teams left to satisfy its bowl obligations, but the more likely scenario is that Toledo will have to settle for a regular MAC bowl, and the league will have one extra team ready to grab an at-large bid. The MAC has a secondary bowl agreement with the Quick Lane Bowl, and we project this bowl to need an at-large entry, so everything should work out for the MAC to get six bowl bids instead of 5.
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6
Result: Either Buffalo or Central Michigan figures to get to 6-6, and whichever team does will be rewarded with a trip to Detroit during the holidays.
Mountain West Conference
Boise State picked a fine time to look like the Broncos teams of 2006 and 2009. Their pasting of San Diego State put this league behind the AAC and possibly the MAC in the race for the one NY6 Bowl for Group of 5 leagues. Boise State has two losses, both to current one-loss teams, and that might be enough to limit the league to its regular five bids.
Because the West Division figures to have just two bowl eligible teams (San Diego State and Fresno State), the Mountain Division will need to supply three bowl eligible teams from among the parity in the division. At this time, Air Force, Utah State and New Mexico have tough roads to get to 6-6, but Colorado State and Wyoming should join Boise State with enough wins. In fact, this is still a three-team race for the division flag, and at the moment, we project Wyoming to win.
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 5
Result: It will be interesting to see how the league will send its teams to the bowls this year, especially if Boise State and San Diego State both miss out on the title. While the New Mexico and Hawaii Bowls are just fine with always inviting the home team, the Idaho Potato Bowl has been wont to invite somebody other than the Broncos to the field of blue. We do not project New Mexico or Hawaii to become bowl eligible, so it should be quite interesting indeed to see where each league team goes after the champion gets the automatic bid to the Las Vegas Bowl.
Pac-12 Conference
This league took the biggest hit of all this past weekend when Washington and Washington State bowed out of the playoff race. USC might still hold a slim chance of making it into the playoffs by winning out, which would include victories over Notre Dame in South Bend, Arizona State in Tempe, and Colorado in Boulder, plus the Conference Championship Game, but we do not forecast the Trojans to win out or even win the Pac-12 Championship.
With the recent turn of events, it could be that Stanford now holds the key to the Pac-12 bowl scramble. The Cardinal lost at USC and at San Diego State, but since then, David Shaw’s squad looks the most complete. With a home finale against Notre Dame, the possible Pac-12 champion could be 10-3, but even at 11-2, we do not see a way that Stanford (or any other Pac-12 team could get in the playoff).
The two Arizona schools had coaches on very hot seats before this past weekend, but Arizona State’s smashing of Washington, and Arizona’s trouncing of UCLA most likely gave Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez stays of execution if not outright commutations.
UCLA looks like the team hurting the most, and for Jim Mora, Jr., the bell might soon toll for him. Chip Kelly might be the right person for this job. Forget the eastern schools with openings; if UCLA offers him this job, Kelly will take it before he takes jobs like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Nebraska, or possibly Auburn if there is a move there.
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9
Result: It is our belief that with no playoff teams, the league will get two teams in the NY6 bowl block. The champion will get an automatic berth, and we believe that if Stanford wins out in the league, then either USC or Washington will get a bid to the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.
For now, we have both UCLA and Colorado just missing out on bowl eligibility, while we move California and the two Arizona teams into bowl eligibility. There will be one extra team available to take an at-large bowl bid back in the east. Arizona, you look like the perfect team to spend the holiday season in some rural Southern town.
Southeastern Conference
There will be a mini-crisis or two coming forth from the SEC race this season. First, and most obvious, it looks like there is more than a decent chance that both Alabama and Georgia could run the table and square off in the SEC Championship games sporting identical 12-0 records, with Alabama number one and Georgia number two. We then expect a close game with the loser remaining in the top four, thus giving the SEC two teams in the playoffs. Since the playoffs began, this has not happened.
The other mini-crisis involves the fact that this league now looks to be short in its bowl eligibility needs. Missouri and Arkansas are headed to losing records, which will open at least one coaching job if not two. Ole Miss is ineligible for bowl consideration, and both Tennessee and Vanderbilt appear to be headed to a season finale where both teams could be 5-6, so the loser will be out of the bowl picture. Throw in the distinct possibility now that Florida could very well fall to 5-6 (had a game cancelled due to Hurricane Irma) and also miss out on a bowl. That brings the number of bowl-ineligible SEC teams to five, leaving 9 bowl-eligible teams.
Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9
Result: Start with two teams making the playoffs. This will mean that the Orange Bowl will choose to go elsewhere with their opponent to the ACC champion. It will leave two bowls without an SEC representative, the Birmingham and the Independence. Unfortunately for the Birmingham Bowl, it looks like it might need two at-large teams to face off at Legion Field on December 23.
| Bowl |
Conferences |
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
| N. Orleans |
CUSA |
SBC |
UAB |
Arkansas St. |
| Cure |
AAC |
SBC |
SMU |
Georgia St. |
| Las Vegas |
MWC 1 |
PAC-12 5 |
Wyoming |
Washington St. |
| New Mexico |
CUSA |
MWC |
UTSA |
Colorado St. |
| Camellia |
MAC |
SBC |
Northern Illinois |
Troy |
| Boca Raton |
AAC |
CUSA |
South Florida |
Louisiana Tech |
| Frisco |
AAC |
MAC |
Houston |
Western Mich. |
| Gasparilla |
AAC |
CUSA |
[Southern Miss.] |
Florida Int’l. |
| Bahamas |
CUSA 1 |
MAC |
Marshall |
Toledo |
| Potato |
MAC |
MWC |
Ohio U |
Boise St. |
| B’ham |
AAC |
SEC 8-9 |
[Arizona] |
[Fla. Atlantic] |
| A. Forces |
Army |
BIG TEN 8 |
Army |
[Middle Tenn.] |
| $ General |
MAC |
SBC |
Akron |
Appy St. |
| Hawaii |
AAC |
MWC |
Memphis |
San Diego St. |
| Ht. of Dallas |
BIG 12 6 |
CUSA |
Iowa St. |
North Texas |
| Quick Lane |
ACC 7-9 |
BIG TEN 7 |
[Central Mich.] |
Indiana |
| Cactus |
BIG 12 5 |
PAC-12 6 |
Texas |
Arizona |
| Independ. |
ACC 7-9 |
SEC 8-9 |
Duke |
[Western Ky.] |
| Pinstripe |
ACC 3-6 |
BIG TEN 5 |
Florida St. |
Iowa |
| F. Farms |
BIG TEN 6 |
PAC-12 8 |
Purdue |
Oregon |
| Texas |
BIG 12 3 |
SEC 2-7 |
Texas Tech |
Miss. State |
| Military |
AAC 7-9 |
ACC 7-9 |
Navy |
Louisville |
| Camp.Wrld. |
ACC 2 |
BIG 12 2 |
Virginia |
Oklahoma |
| Holiday |
BIG TEN 3 |
PAC-12 2 |
Northwestern |
Utah |
| Alamo |
BIG 12 1 |
PAC-12 1 |
TCU |
USC |
| Belk |
ACC 3-6 |
SEC 2-7 |
Virginia Tech |
Kentucky |
| Sun |
ACC 3-6 |
Pac-12 |
Syracuse |
California |
| Music City |
ACC 3-6/B10 4 |
SEC 2-7 |
Georgia Tech |
Auburn |
| Arizona |
MWC |
SBC |
Fresno St. |
New Mexico St. |
| Cotton |
At-large |
At-large |
Notre Dame |
Washington |
| Taxslayer |
ACC 3-6/B10 4 |
SEC 2-7 |
Michigan |
South Carolina |
| Liberty |
BIG 12 4 |
SEC 2-7 |
West Virginia |
Tennessee |
| Fiesta |
At-large |
At-large |
Wisconsin |
Stanford |
| Orange |
ACC 1 |
SEC 1/B10 1 |
Miami (Fla.) |
Penn St. |
| Outback |
BIG TEN 2 |
SEC 2-7 |
Michigan St. |
LSU |
| Peach |
At-large |
At-large |
N.C. St. |
Central Florida |
| Citrus |
B10 1/ACC 2 |
SEC 1 |
Clemson |
Texas A&M |
| Rose |
Playoff |
Semi-final |
Ohio St. |
Georgia |
| Sugar |
Playoff |
Semi-final |
Alabama |
Oklahoma St. |
| Champ. |
Semifinal |
Winners |
Alabama |
Ohio St. |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 