The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, February 12, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
AuburnTexas A&M14.0
BaylorTexas6.5
LehighLafayette3.7
GeorgetownCreighton-5.0
MassachusettsSaint Joseph’s1.7
AlabamaArkansas4.4
KansasOklahoma10.3
VillanovaSeton Hall8.3
Boston UAmerican12.7
WagnerMerrimack15.2
Fairleigh DickinsonSacred Heart-2.5
Central ConnecticutSt. Francis (NY)-0.3
Indiana St.Illinois St.1.0
FairfieldNiagara2.0
ArmyNavy-5.1
WisconsinRutgers7.9
BucknellHoly Cross4.0
Morgan St.North Carolina Central-1.2
TulaneTemple4.3
Montana St.Northern Arizona13.9
Long IslandBryant-0.8
Gardner-WebbCharleston Southern17.5
North CarolinaFlorida St.7.3
ColumbiaYale-12.8
PennsylvaniaHarvard2.9
CornellBrown2.3
BinghamtonNew Hampshire0.3
Oklahoma St.West Virginia3.1
Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern5.6
DaytonGeorge Washington15.9
Rhode IslandDavidson-2.1
FurmanChattanooga3.0
DrexelNortheastern7.5
TowsonElon12.0
BuffaloBall St.11.7
GeorgiaSouth Carolina-2.7
RiceNorth Texas-5.7
Chicago St.Sam Houston-11.7
Wake ForestMiami6.8
PittsburghNC St.-0.4
Cleveland St.IUPUI22.0
UL MonroeTexas St.-3.6
LouisianaUT Arlington4.1
Western IllinoisNorth Dakota12.7
HoustonMemphis10.9
Michigan St.Indiana3.7
VMIThe Citadel8.5
Miami (O)Bowling Green1.2
Eastern MichiganOhio-10.2
KentuckyFlorida12.4
Texas TechTCU10.4
Morehead St.Murray St.-5.2
OregonCalifornia11.5
Coppin St.South Carolina St.6.5
UC San DiegoUC Riverside-4.2
Alcorn St.Bethune-Cookman8.9
HowardDelaware St.19.9
UTSAWestern Kentucky-12.0
Sacramento St.Southern Utah-7.5
Northwestern St.McNeese St.-0.9
NichollsTexas A&M-CC5.9
Utah ValleyNew Mexico St.-0.4
SeattleLamar17.2
St. Francis (PA)Mount St. Mary’s-1.7
USC UpstateUNC Asheville-0.1
North Carolina A&TLongwood-5.1
VirginiaGeorgia Tech8.6
PrincetonDartmouth7.2
Florida Gulf CoastStetson7.9
Iowa St.Kansas St.4.2
Appalachian St.Georgia St.3.5
Missouri St.Valparaiso13.1
George MasonVCU-0.1
DenverSouth Dakota-3.5
East Tennessee St.Samford5.2
James MadisonWilliam & Mary12.6
ButlerMarquette-6.2
SIU EdwardsvilleTennessee Tech-0.8
Eastern IllinoisUT Martin-5.7
Texas SouthernGrambling11.6
WinthropPresbyterian8.2
North AlabamaBellarmine-4.1
Northern IllinoisToledo-14.2
Boston CollegeDuke-14.1
Alabama A&MMississippi Valley St.11.5
Loyola (MD)Colgate-6.5
Southeast Missouri St.Belmont-13.9
Austin PeayTennessee St.4.3
IdahoWeber St.-9.9
Eastern WashingtonIdaho St.12.5
SE LouisianaHouston Baptist8.6
New OrleansIncarnate Word11.1
UMass LowellMaryland Baltimore Co.2.0
LipscombEastern Kentucky-0.9
Jacksonville St.Central Arkansas16.0
TroyLittle Rock12.9
South Dakota St.Omaha24.5
Alabama St.Arkansas-Pine Bluff9.9
HamptonRadford-1.4
Kennesaw St.North Florida5.1
DuquesneFordham0.4
WashingtonArizona-15.7
MichiganOhio St.2.4
TennesseeVanderbilt13.4
East CarolinaSMU-7.8
Norfolk St.Maryland-Eastern Shore11.3
Santa ClaraSan Francisco-0.3
High PointCampbell0.4
Virginia TechSyracuse6.0
JacksonvilleLiberty-4.4
RichmondLa Salle13.3
ProvidenceDePaul7.8
Prairie View A&MSouthern-3.4
Jackson St.Florida A&M4.4
DelawareHofstra0.1
ClemsonNotre Dame2.5
AlbanyVermont-10.7
NJITHartford1.5
Purdue Fort WayneIllinois Chicago4.1
South AlabamaArkansas St.5.7
WoffordWestern Carolina14.0
UNC WilmingtonCharleston0.8
MaristCanisius8.1
Western MichiganCentral Michigan0.4
Wichita StateSouth Florida14.4
TulsaCincinnati-4.2
ColoradoUtah4.9
TarletonAbilene Christian0.3
San DiegoPacific7.4
Southern IllinoisEvansville12.4
BradleyDrake2.3
Oral RobertsKansas City7.8
St. ThomasNorth Dakota St.-5.5
LSUMississippi St.8.0
San Diego St.Air Force18.3
MissouriMississippi-0.5
MinnesotaPenn St.0.7
MontanaPortland St.5.7
Dixie St.Grand Canyon-10.0
San Jose St.Wyoming-13.8
GonzagaSaint Mary’s16.2
USCUCLA-2.4
Washington St.Arizona St.11.4
Cal St. BakersfieldCal St. Northridge7.3
Cal PolyUC Santa Barbara-9.5
California BaptistUT Rio Grande Valley6.9
PepperdineBYU-13.7
PortlandLoyola Marymount0.8
Oregon St.Stanford-4.5
HawaiiCal St. Fullerton3.0

Great TV Watching Today–Our Best Bets

Time (EST)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMESPN2BaylorTexas
12:00 PMSECNAlabamaArkansas
1:00 PMCBSKansasOklahoma
1:00 PMFOXVillanovaSeton Hall
2:00 PMFS1WisconsinRutgers
2:00 PMESPN+FurmanChattanooga
3:00 PMACCNWake ForestMiami (Fla.)
3:30 PMABCHoustonMemphis
3:30 PMFOXMichigan St.Indiana
4:00 PMESPNKentuckyFlorida
4:00 PMESPN+Texas TechTCU
4:00 PMESPN+Morehead St.Murray St.
4:00 PMESPNUIowa St.Kansas St.
6:00 PMPAC12WashingtonArizona
6:00 PMESPNMichiganOhio St.
8:00 PMESPN2LSUMississippi St.
10:00 PMESPN2GonzagaSaint Mary’s
10:00 PMESPNUSCUCLA
12:00 AMESPN2HawaiiCal St. Fullerton

January 31, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Monday, January 31, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:45 am

Monday’s PiRate Rating Spreads

HomeVisitorsSpread
LafayetteColgate-9.5
Notre DameDuke-5.6
Western IllinoisUMKC4.8
Kennesaw St.Liberty-4.7
MaineHartford-5.8
VermontAlbany15.0
Southern UtahNorthern Arizona13.4
UNC WilmingtonDrexel-1.1
Boston UniversityHoly Cross16.5
Tennessee TechMorehead St.-4.5
Austin PeaySIU Edwardsville3.2
MercerWofford-5.0
Penn St.Iowa-3.8
South Carolina St.Howard-7.9
Maryland-Eastern ShoreMorgan St.0.8
Delaware St.Coppin St.-11.1
North DakotaSouth Dakota St.-19.0
Alabama A&MBethune-Cookman2.0
WyomingColorado St.1.6
Jackson St.Southern-1.8
Alcorn St.Grambling7.2
BaylorWest Virginia14.2
Weber St.Eastern Washington7.9
North Carolina CentralNorfolk St.-3.1
Alabama St.Florida A&M1.0
Santa ClaraPacific14.8
OklahomaTCU5.8
San Diego St.New Mexico13.8
Portland St.Northern Colorado-1.9

Monday’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateConference
1Gonzaga124.5West Coast
2Arizona121.2Pac-12
3Baylor120.5Big 12
4Kentucky120.2Southeastern
5Purdue119.4Big Ten
6Houston119.4American Athletic
7Auburn119.3Southeastern
8UCLA118.2Pac-12
9Villanova118.2Big East
10Kansas117.9Big 12
11Duke117.2Atlantic Coast
12Tennessee116.7Southeastern
13Texas Tech116.6Big 12
14LSU116.6Southeastern
15Illinois116.0Big Ten
16Connecticut115.5Big East
17Alabama115.2Southeastern
18Texas115.0Big 12
19Michigan St.114.8Big Ten
20Iowa114.3Big Ten
21Xavier114.0Big East
22Ohio St.113.9Big Ten
23Indiana113.2Big Ten
24USC112.6Pac-12
25Michigan112.5Big Ten
26Saint Mary’s112.5West Coast
27Wisconsin112.2Big Ten
28Oklahoma112.1Big 12
29Arkansas112.0Southeastern
30North Carolina112.0Atlantic Coast
31Seton Hall111.9Big East
32Florida111.7Southeastern
33Marquette111.6Big East
34Iowa St.111.2Big 12
35Washington St.111.1Pac-12
36BYU111.1West Coast
37Virginia Tech111.1Atlantic Coast
38Loyola Chicago111.0Missouri Valley
39San Francisco110.8West Coast
40Wake Forest110.7Atlantic Coast
41Boise St.110.7Mountain West
42Oregon110.7Pac-12
43San Diego St.110.6Mountain West
44UAB110.5Conference USA
45Mississippi St.110.5Southeastern
46Memphis110.4American Athletic
47Murray St.110.4Ohio Valley
48Oklahoma St.110.2Big 12
49Utah St.110.1Mountain West
50Providence109.9Big East
51Colorado St.109.6Mountain West
52SMU109.4American Athletic
53West Virginia109.3Big 12
54TCU109.3Big 12
55Belmont109.1Ohio Valley
56Saint Louis109.0Atlantic 10
57Clemson109.0Atlantic Coast
58Northwestern109.0Big Ten
59Miami FL108.7Atlantic Coast
60Notre Dame108.6Atlantic Coast
61VCU108.6Atlantic 10
62Missouri St.108.5Missouri Valley
63Davidson108.5Atlantic 10
64Toledo108.4Mid-American
65Florida St.108.3Atlantic Coast
66Texas A&M108.2Southeastern
67Wyoming108.2Mountain West
68Creighton108.1Big East
69Furman108.1Southern
70Cincinnati108.0American Athletic
71Iona107.9Metro Atlantic
72Kansas St.107.8Big 12
73South Dakota St.107.8Summit
74Chattanooga107.8Southern
75St. John’s107.7Big East
76Maryland107.6Big Ten
77Syracuse107.5Atlantic Coast
78Penn St.107.5Big Ten
79Dayton107.4Atlantic 10
80North Texas107.4Conference USA
81Fresno St.107.2Mountain West
82Vermont107.2America East
83Wichita St.107.1American Athletic
84St. Bonaventure107.0Atlantic 10
85UCF106.9American Athletic
86Santa Clara106.8West Coast
87Virginia106.6Atlantic Coast
88Richmond106.6Atlantic 10
89Colorado106.5Pac-12
90Louisiana Tech106.4Conference USA
91Ohio106.3Mid-American
92Minnesota106.3Big Ten
93Stanford106.0Pac-12
94Vanderbilt105.9Southeastern
95South Carolina105.8Southeastern
96Drake105.7Missouri Valley
97Rutgers105.5Big Ten
98DePaul105.3Big East
99Towson105.2Colonial Athletic
100Louisville105.1Atlantic Coast
101Rhode Island105.0Atlantic 10
102N.C. State105.0Atlantic Coast
103New Mexico St.105.0Western Athletic
104Bradley104.8Missouri Valley
105Northern Iowa104.6Missouri Valley
106Mississippi104.6Southeastern
107George Mason104.4Atlantic 10
108Wagner104.3Northeast
109UNLV104.3Mountain West
110Wofford104.1Southern
111Utah103.9Pac-12
112Oakland103.9Horizon
113Liberty103.8Atlantic Sun
114UC Irvine103.8Big West
115Hofstra103.7Colonial Athletic
116Grand Canyon103.7Western Athletic
117Weber St.103.6Big Sky
118Buffalo103.6Mid-American
119Tulane103.6American Athletic
120Utah Valley103.5Western Athletic
121California103.4Pac-12
122Jacksonville St.103.3Atlantic Sun
123Nevada103.1Mountain West
124Monmouth103.0Metro Atlantic
125Colgate102.9Patriot League
126Arizona St.102.9Pac-12
127Oral Roberts102.8Summit
128Butler102.7Big East
129Seattle102.6Western Athletic
130Western Kentucky102.6Conference USA
131Temple102.5American Athletic
132South Alabama102.4Sun Belt
133Southern Illinois102.4Missouri Valley
134Georgia Tech102.4Atlantic Coast
135Middle Tennessee101.8Conference USA
136Tulsa101.7American Athletic
137Washington101.7Pac-12
138Yale101.7Ivy League
139Boston College101.7Atlantic Coast
140UC Santa Barbara101.7Big West
141Akron101.5Mid-American
142Princeton101.5Ivy League
143Morehead St.101.5Ohio Valley
144Florida Atlantic101.3Conference USA
145Delaware101.3Colonial Athletic
146Missouri101.2Southeastern
147Abilene Christian101.1Western Athletic
148UC Riverside101.1Big West
149Navy101.0Patriot League
150Drexel100.9Colonial Athletic
151Oregon St.100.7Pac-12
152Georgetown100.6Big East
153Montana St.100.6Big Sky
154Stephen F. Austin100.6Western Athletic
155San Diego100.5West Coast
156Southern Utah100.5Big Sky
157Saint Joseph’s100.5Atlantic 10
158Nebraska100.5Big Ten
159Appalachian St.100.4Sun Belt
160Coastal Carolina100.4Sun Belt
161Longwood100.3Big South
162Saint Peter’s100.3Metro Atlantic
163Cal St. Fullerton100.2Big West
164North Dakota St.100.2Summit
165Hawaii100.2Big West
166Montana100.1Big Sky
167Texas St.100.1Sun Belt
168Kent St.100.0Mid-American
169Pittsburgh99.9Atlantic Coast
170Bellarmine99.9Atlantic Sun
171Sam Houston St.99.9Western Athletic
172Texas Southern99.9Southwestern Athletic
173Loyola Marymount99.8West Coast
174VMI99.8Southern
175New Mexico99.8Mountain West
176Cleveland St.99.8Horizon
177Massachusetts99.7Atlantic 10
178East Carolina99.7American Athletic
179Boston University99.7Patriot League
180UTEP99.6Conference USA
181Brown99.5Ivy League
182Old Dominion99.5Conference USA
183Rice99.5Conference USA
184Arkansas St.99.5Sun Belt
185Charleston99.4Colonial Athletic
186Indiana St.99.3Missouri Valley
187Georgia St.99.3Sun Belt
188Fairfield99.2Metro Atlantic
189Gardner Webb99.2Big South
190UNC Greensboro99.1Southern
191Louisiana99.1Sun Belt
192Illinois St.99.1Missouri Valley
193East Tennessee St.98.9Southern
194Tarleton St.98.9Western Athletic
195Georgia98.8Southeastern
196Northern Colorado98.7Big Sky
197Winthrop98.7Big South
198Marist98.6Metro Atlantic
199Troy98.6Sun Belt
200Cornell98.4Ivy League
201Bryant98.4Northeast
202Penn98.3Ivy League
203Western Illinois98.3Summit
204Miami OH98.3Mid-American
205Charlotte98.3Conference USA
206James Madison98.3Colonial Athletic
207Long Beach St.98.2Big West
208Eastern Washington98.2Big Sky
209Detroit Mercy98.2Horizon
210Norfolk St.98.2Mideastern Athletic
211Fordham98.1Atlantic 10
212Valparaiso98.1Missouri Valley
213Niagara98.1Metro Atlantic
214Wright St.98.0Horizon
215Marshall97.9Conference USA
216Nicholls St.97.9Southland
217Campbell97.9Big South
218Stony Brook97.8America East
219Bowling Green97.8Mid-American
220Southern97.7Southwestern Athletic
221UT Arlington97.7Sun Belt
222Howard97.6Mideastern Athletic
223Harvard97.5Ivy League
224UNC Wilmington97.3Colonial Athletic
225Florida Gulf Coast97.3Atlantic Sun
226Jacksonville96.9Atlantic Sun
227Georgia Southern96.8Sun Belt
228Cal Baptist96.8Western Athletic
229Duquesne96.8Atlantic 10
230Eastern Kentucky96.7Atlantic Sun
231South Dakota96.6Summit
232UC Davis96.6Big West
233Mercer96.6Southern
234Kennesaw St.96.6Atlantic Sun
235Portland96.6West Coast
236UNC Asheville96.6Big South
237Air Force96.6Mountain West
238South Florida96.5American Athletic
239Northern Kentucky96.4Horizon
240Dartmouth96.3Ivy League
241Cal St. Bakersfield96.2Big West
242La Salle96.2Atlantic 10
243Ball St.96.2Mid-American
244Youngstown St.96.1Horizon
245New Hampshire96.1America East
246Samford96.0Southern
247UMKC96.0Summit
248UMBC96.0America East
249FIU96.0Conference USA
250LIU95.8Northeast
251Purdue Fort Wayne95.7Horizon
252Mount St. Mary’s95.7Northeast
253Quinnipiac95.7Metro Atlantic
254Northeastern95.6Colonial Athletic
255UMass Lowell95.4America East
256Alcorn St.95.1Southwestern Athletic
257Pacific95.0West Coast
258George Washington94.8Atlantic 10
259Loyola MD94.7Patriot League
260Albany94.7America East
261Texas A&M Corpus Chris94.6Southland
262High Point94.5Big South
263The Citadel94.5Southern
264Tennessee Tech94.5Ohio Valley
265UC San Diego94.5Big West
266Elon94.5Colonial Athletic
267Eastern Michigan94.3Mid-American
268Portland St.94.3Big Sky
269Siena94.3Metro Atlantic
270North Alabama94.3Atlantic Sun
271Manhattan94.2Metro Atlantic
272Illinois Chicago94.0Horizon
273Louisiana Monroe93.9Sun Belt
274Army93.9Patriot League
275New Orleans93.9Southland
276USC Upstate93.8Big South
277Pepperdine93.6West Coast
278Canisius93.5Metro Atlantic
279Hartford93.4America East
280Dixie St.93.4Western Athletic
281Jackson St.93.4Southwestern Athletic
282Austin Peay93.4Ohio Valley
283Lipscomb93.3Atlantic Sun
284Presbyterian93.1Big South
285Prairie View A&M92.9Southwestern Athletic
286North Carolina A&T92.9Big South
287SIU Edwardsville92.7Ohio Valley
288UT Rio Grande Valley92.7Western Athletic
289St. Thomas92.7Summit
290Binghamton92.7America East
291Rider92.6Metro Atlantic
292North Carolina Central92.6Mideastern Athletic
293Radford92.6Big South
294North Florida92.5Atlantic Sun
295Southeast Missouri St.92.4Ohio Valley
296Southeastern Louisiana92.4Southland
297Evansville92.4Missouri Valley
298Coppin St.92.3Mideastern Athletic
299Stetson92.3Atlantic Sun
300San Jose St.92.2Mountain West
301Robert Morris91.8Horizon
302Milwaukee91.8Horizon
303Merrimack91.8Northeast
304St. Francis PA91.7Northeast
305Western Carolina91.6Southern
306Denver91.5Summit
307Tennessee St.91.5Ohio Valley
308Cal Poly91.4Big West
309Lehigh91.2Patriot League
310McNeese St.91.2Southland
311Little Rock91.2Sun Belt
312Florida A&M91.1Southwestern Athletic
313Northern Illinois91.0Mid-American
314Lafayette90.9Patriot League
315Sacramento St.90.8Big Sky
316Sacred Heart90.7Northeast
317NJIT90.6America East
318St. Francis NY90.4Northeast
319Grambling St.90.4Southwestern Athletic
320Tennessee Martin90.3Ohio Valley
321Southern Miss90.3Conference USA
322Cal St. Northridge90.2Big West
323Green Bay90.1Horizon
324UTSA90.1Conference USA
325Morgan St.90.0Mideastern Athletic
326Idaho89.9Big Sky
327Alabama St.89.6Southwestern Athletic
328Northern Arizona89.6Big Sky
329William & Mary89.2Colonial Athletic
330American88.9Patriot League
331Central Michigan88.9Mid-American
332Western Michigan88.8Mid-American
333Hampton88.7Big South
334Bucknell88.4Patriot League
335Lamar88.4Western Athletic
336Maryland Eastern Shore88.3Mideastern Athletic
337Northwestern St.87.9Southland
338Bethune Cookman87.8Southwestern Athletic
339Central Arkansas87.5Atlantic Sun
340Idaho St.87.4Big Sky
341Alabama A&M87.3Southwestern Athletic
342Fairleigh Dickinson87.3Northeast
343South Carolina St.87.2Mideastern Athletic
344Central Connecticut86.9Northeast
345Columbia86.5Ivy League
346Nebraska Omaha86.3Summit
347North Dakota86.3Summit
348Holy Cross85.7Patriot League
349Chicago St.85.3Western Athletic
350Houston Baptist85.2Southland
351Maine85.1America East
352Charleston Southern84.7Big South
353Incarnate Word84.5Southland
354Eastern Illinois83.1Ohio Valley
355Arkansas Pine Bluff82.7Southwestern Athletic
356IUPUI80.2Horizon
357Delaware St.78.7Mideastern Athletic
358Mississippi Valley St.77.9Southwestern Athletic

Alphabetical

#TeamPiRateConference
147Abilene Christian101.1Western Athletic
237Air Force96.6Mountain West
141Akron101.5Mid-American
17Alabama115.2Southeastern
341Alabama A&M87.3Southwestern Athletic
327Alabama St.89.6Southwestern Athletic
260Albany94.7America East
256Alcorn St.95.1Southwestern Athletic
330American88.9Patriot League
159Appalachian St.100.4Sun Belt
2Arizona121.2Pac-12
126Arizona St.102.9Pac-12
29Arkansas112.0Southeastern
355Arkansas Pine Bluff82.7Southwestern Athletic
184Arkansas St.99.5Sun Belt
274Army93.9Patriot League
7Auburn119.3Southeastern
282Austin Peay93.4Ohio Valley
243Ball St.96.2Mid-American
3Baylor120.5Big 12
170Bellarmine99.9Atlantic Sun
55Belmont109.1Ohio Valley
338Bethune Cookman87.8Southwestern Athletic
290Binghamton92.7America East
41Boise St.110.7Mountain West
139Boston College101.7Atlantic Coast
179Boston University99.7Patriot League
219Bowling Green97.8Mid-American
104Bradley104.8Missouri Valley
181Brown99.5Ivy League
201Bryant98.4Northeast
334Bucknell88.4Patriot League
118Buffalo103.6Mid-American
128Butler102.7Big East
36BYU111.1West Coast
228Cal Baptist96.8Western Athletic
308Cal Poly91.4Big West
241Cal St. Bakersfield96.2Big West
163Cal St. Fullerton100.2Big West
322Cal St. Northridge90.2Big West
121California103.4Pac-12
217Campbell97.9Big South
278Canisius93.5Metro Atlantic
339Central Arkansas87.5Atlantic Sun
344Central Connecticut86.9Northeast
331Central Michigan88.9Mid-American
185Charleston99.4Colonial Athletic
352Charleston Southern84.7Big South
205Charlotte98.3Conference USA
74Chattanooga107.8Southern
349Chicago St.85.3Western Athletic
70Cincinnati108.0American Athletic
57Clemson109.0Atlantic Coast
176Cleveland St.99.8Horizon
160Coastal Carolina100.4Sun Belt
125Colgate102.9Patriot League
89Colorado106.5Pac-12
51Colorado St.109.6Mountain West
345Columbia86.5Ivy League
16Connecticut115.5Big East
298Coppin St.92.3Mideastern Athletic
200Cornell98.4Ivy League
68Creighton108.1Big East
240Dartmouth96.3Ivy League
63Davidson108.5Atlantic 10
79Dayton107.4Atlantic 10
145Delaware101.3Colonial Athletic
357Delaware St.78.7Mideastern Athletic
306Denver91.5Summit
98DePaul105.3Big East
209Detroit Mercy98.2Horizon
280Dixie St.93.4Western Athletic
96Drake105.7Missouri Valley
150Drexel100.9Colonial Athletic
11Duke117.2Atlantic Coast
229Duquesne96.8Atlantic 10
178East Carolina99.7American Athletic
193East Tennessee St.98.9Southern
354Eastern Illinois83.1Ohio Valley
230Eastern Kentucky96.7Atlantic Sun
267Eastern Michigan94.3Mid-American
208Eastern Washington98.2Big Sky
266Elon94.5Colonial Athletic
297Evansville92.4Missouri Valley
188Fairfield99.2Metro Atlantic
342Fairleigh Dickinson87.3Northeast
249FIU96.0Conference USA
32Florida111.7Southeastern
312Florida A&M91.1Southwestern Athletic
144Florida Atlantic101.3Conference USA
225Florida Gulf Coast97.3Atlantic Sun
65Florida St.108.3Atlantic Coast
211Fordham98.1Atlantic 10
81Fresno St.107.2Mountain West
69Furman108.1Southern
189Gardner Webb99.2Big South
107George Mason104.4Atlantic 10
258George Washington94.8Atlantic 10
152Georgetown100.6Big East
195Georgia98.8Southeastern
227Georgia Southern96.8Sun Belt
187Georgia St.99.3Sun Belt
134Georgia Tech102.4Atlantic Coast
1Gonzaga124.5West Coast
319Grambling St.90.4Southwestern Athletic
116Grand Canyon103.7Western Athletic
323Green Bay90.1Horizon
333Hampton88.7Big South
279Hartford93.4America East
223Harvard97.5Ivy League
165Hawaii100.2Big West
262High Point94.5Big South
115Hofstra103.7Colonial Athletic
348Holy Cross85.7Patriot League
6Houston119.4American Athletic
350Houston Baptist85.2Southland
222Howard97.6Mideastern Athletic
326Idaho89.9Big Sky
340Idaho St.87.4Big Sky
15Illinois116.0Big Ten
272Illinois Chicago94.0Horizon
192Illinois St.99.1Missouri Valley
353Incarnate Word84.5Southland
23Indiana113.2Big Ten
186Indiana St.99.3Missouri Valley
71Iona107.9Metro Atlantic
20Iowa114.3Big Ten
34Iowa St.111.2Big 12
356IUPUI80.2Horizon
281Jackson St.93.4Southwestern Athletic
226Jacksonville96.9Atlantic Sun
122Jacksonville St.103.3Atlantic Sun
206James Madison98.3Colonial Athletic
10Kansas117.9Big 12
72Kansas St.107.8Big 12
234Kennesaw St.96.6Atlantic Sun
168Kent St.100.0Mid-American
4Kentucky120.2Southeastern
242La Salle96.2Atlantic 10
314Lafayette90.9Patriot League
335Lamar88.4Western Athletic
309Lehigh91.2Patriot League
113Liberty103.8Atlantic Sun
283Lipscomb93.3Atlantic Sun
311Little Rock91.2Sun Belt
250LIU95.8Northeast
207Long Beach St.98.2Big West
161Longwood100.3Big South
191Louisiana99.1Sun Belt
273Louisiana Monroe93.9Sun Belt
90Louisiana Tech106.4Conference USA
100Louisville105.1Atlantic Coast
38Loyola Chicago111.0Missouri Valley
173Loyola Marymount99.8West Coast
259Loyola MD94.7Patriot League
14LSU116.6Southeastern
351Maine85.1America East
271Manhattan94.2Metro Atlantic
198Marist98.6Metro Atlantic
33Marquette111.6Big East
215Marshall97.9Conference USA
76Maryland107.6Big Ten
336Maryland Eastern Shore88.3Mideastern Athletic
177Massachusetts99.7Atlantic 10
310McNeese St.91.2Southland
46Memphis110.4American Athletic
233Mercer96.6Southern
303Merrimack91.8Northeast
59Miami FL108.7Atlantic Coast
204Miami OH98.3Mid-American
25Michigan112.5Big Ten
19Michigan St.114.8Big Ten
135Middle Tennessee101.8Conference USA
302Milwaukee91.8Horizon
92Minnesota106.3Big Ten
106Mississippi104.6Southeastern
45Mississippi St.110.5Southeastern
358Mississippi Valley St.77.9Southwestern Athletic
146Missouri101.2Southeastern
62Missouri St.108.5Missouri Valley
124Monmouth103.0Metro Atlantic
166Montana100.1Big Sky
153Montana St.100.6Big Sky
143Morehead St.101.5Ohio Valley
325Morgan St.90.0Mideastern Athletic
252Mount St. Mary’s95.7Northeast
47Murray St.110.4Ohio Valley
102N.C. State105.0Atlantic Coast
149Navy101.0Patriot League
158Nebraska100.5Big Ten
346Nebraska Omaha86.3Summit
123Nevada103.1Mountain West
245New Hampshire96.1America East
175New Mexico99.8Mountain West
103New Mexico St.105.0Western Athletic
275New Orleans93.9Southland
213Niagara98.1Metro Atlantic
216Nicholls St.97.9Southland
317NJIT90.6America East
210Norfolk St.98.2Mideastern Athletic
270North Alabama94.3Atlantic Sun
30North Carolina112.0Atlantic Coast
286North Carolina A&T92.9Big South
292North Carolina Central92.6Mideastern Athletic
347North Dakota86.3Summit
164North Dakota St.100.2Summit
294North Florida92.5Atlantic Sun
80North Texas107.4Conference USA
254Northeastern95.6Colonial Athletic
328Northern Arizona89.6Big Sky
196Northern Colorado98.7Big Sky
313Northern Illinois91.0Mid-American
105Northern Iowa104.6Missouri Valley
239Northern Kentucky96.4Horizon
58Northwestern109.0Big Ten
337Northwestern St.87.9Southland
60Notre Dame108.6Atlantic Coast
112Oakland103.9Horizon
91Ohio106.3Mid-American
22Ohio St.113.9Big Ten
28Oklahoma112.1Big 12
48Oklahoma St.110.2Big 12
182Old Dominion99.5Conference USA
127Oral Roberts102.8Summit
42Oregon110.7Pac-12
151Oregon St.100.7Pac-12
257Pacific95.0West Coast
202Penn98.3Ivy League
78Penn St.107.5Big Ten
277Pepperdine93.6West Coast
169Pittsburgh99.9Atlantic Coast
235Portland96.6West Coast
268Portland St.94.3Big Sky
285Prairie View A&M92.9Southwestern Athletic
284Presbyterian93.1Big South
142Princeton101.5Ivy League
50Providence109.9Big East
5Purdue119.4Big Ten
251Purdue Fort Wayne95.7Horizon
253Quinnipiac95.7Metro Atlantic
293Radford92.6Big South
101Rhode Island105.0Atlantic 10
183Rice99.5Conference USA
88Richmond106.6Atlantic 10
291Rider92.6Metro Atlantic
301Robert Morris91.8Horizon
97Rutgers105.5Big Ten
315Sacramento St.90.8Big Sky
316Sacred Heart90.7Northeast
157Saint Joseph’s100.5Atlantic 10
56Saint Louis109.0Atlantic 10
26Saint Mary’s112.5West Coast
162Saint Peter’s100.3Metro Atlantic
171Sam Houston St.99.9Western Athletic
246Samford96.0Southern
155San Diego100.5West Coast
43San Diego St.110.6Mountain West
39San Francisco110.8West Coast
300San Jose St.92.2Mountain West
86Santa Clara106.8West Coast
129Seattle102.6Western Athletic
31Seton Hall111.9Big East
269Siena94.3Metro Atlantic
287SIU Edwardsville92.7Ohio Valley
52SMU109.4American Athletic
132South Alabama102.4Sun Belt
95South Carolina105.8Southeastern
343South Carolina St.87.2Mideastern Athletic
231South Dakota96.6Summit
73South Dakota St.107.8Summit
238South Florida96.5American Athletic
295Southeast Missouri St.92.4Ohio Valley
296Southeastern Louisiana92.4Southland
220Southern97.7Southwestern Athletic
133Southern Illinois102.4Missouri Valley
321Southern Miss90.3Conference USA
156Southern Utah100.5Big Sky
84St. Bonaventure107.0Atlantic 10
318St. Francis NY90.4Northeast
304St. Francis PA91.7Northeast
75St. John’s107.7Big East
289St. Thomas92.7Summit
93Stanford106.0Pac-12
154Stephen F. Austin100.6Western Athletic
299Stetson92.3Atlantic Sun
218Stony Brook97.8America East
77Syracuse107.5Atlantic Coast
194Tarleton St.98.9Western Athletic
54TCU109.3Big 12
131Temple102.5American Athletic
12Tennessee116.7Southeastern
320Tennessee Martin90.3Ohio Valley
307Tennessee St.91.5Ohio Valley
264Tennessee Tech94.5Ohio Valley
18Texas115.0Big 12
66Texas A&M108.2Southeastern
261Texas A&M Corpus Chris94.6Southland
172Texas Southern99.9Southwestern Athletic
167Texas St.100.1Sun Belt
13Texas Tech116.6Big 12
263The Citadel94.5Southern
64Toledo108.4Mid-American
99Towson105.2Colonial Athletic
199Troy98.6Sun Belt
119Tulane103.6American Athletic
136Tulsa101.7American Athletic
44UAB110.5Conference USA
232UC Davis96.6Big West
114UC Irvine103.8Big West
148UC Riverside101.1Big West
265UC San Diego94.5Big West
140UC Santa Barbara101.7Big West
85UCF106.9American Athletic
8UCLA118.2Pac-12
255UMass Lowell95.4America East
248UMBC96.0America East
247UMKC96.0Summit
236UNC Asheville96.6Big South
190UNC Greensboro99.1Southern
224UNC Wilmington97.3Colonial Athletic
109UNLV104.3Mountain West
24USC112.6Pac-12
276USC Upstate93.8Big South
221UT Arlington97.7Sun Belt
288UT Rio Grande Valley92.7Western Athletic
111Utah103.9Pac-12
49Utah St.110.1Mountain West
120Utah Valley103.5Western Athletic
180UTEP99.6Conference USA
324UTSA90.1Conference USA
212Valparaiso98.1Missouri Valley
94Vanderbilt105.9Southeastern
61VCU108.6Atlantic 10
82Vermont107.2America East
9Villanova118.2Big East
87Virginia106.6Atlantic Coast
37Virginia Tech111.1Atlantic Coast
174VMI99.8Southern
108Wagner104.3Northeast
40Wake Forest110.7Atlantic Coast
137Washington101.7Pac-12
35Washington St.111.1Pac-12
117Weber St.103.6Big Sky
53West Virginia109.3Big 12
305Western Carolina91.6Southern
203Western Illinois98.3Summit
130Western Kentucky102.6Conference USA
332Western Michigan88.8Mid-American
83Wichita St.107.1American Athletic
329William & Mary89.2Colonial Athletic
197Winthrop98.7Big South
27Wisconsin112.2Big Ten
110Wofford104.1Southern
214Wright St.98.0Horizon
67Wyoming108.2Mountain West
21Xavier114.0Big East
138Yale101.7Ivy League
244Youngstown St.96.1Horizon

PiRate Ratings By Conference

America East
TeamRating
Vermont107.2
Stony Brook97.8
New Hampshire96.1
UMBC96.0
UMass Lowell95.4
Albany94.7
Hartford93.4
Binghamton92.7
NJIT90.6
Maine85.1
American Athletic
TeamRating
Houston119.4
Memphis110.4
SMU109.4
Cincinnati108.0
Wichita St.107.1
UCF106.9
Tulane103.6
Temple102.5
Tulsa101.7
East Carolina99.7
South Florida96.5
Atlantic 10
TeamRating
Saint Louis109.0
VCU108.6
Davidson108.5
Dayton107.4
St. Bonaventure107.0
Richmond106.6
Rhode Island105.0
George Mason104.4
Saint Joseph’s100.5
Massachusetts99.7
Fordham98.1
Duquesne96.8
La Salle96.2
George Washington94.8
Atlantic Coast
TeamRating
Duke117.2
North Carolina112.0
Virginia Tech111.1
Wake Forest110.7
Clemson109.0
Miami FL108.7
Notre Dame108.6
Florida St.108.3
Syracuse107.5
Virginia106.6
Louisville105.1
N.C. State105.0
Georgia Tech102.4
Boston College101.7
Pittsburgh99.9
Atlantic Sun
TeamRating
Liberty103.8
Jacksonville St.103.3
Bellarmine99.9
Florida Gulf Coast97.3
Jacksonville96.9
Eastern Kentucky96.7
Kennesaw St.96.6
North Alabama94.3
Lipscomb93.3
North Florida92.5
Stetson92.3
Central Arkansas87.5
Big 12
TeamRating
Baylor120.5
Kansas117.9
Texas Tech116.6
Texas115.0
Oklahoma112.1
Iowa St.111.2
Oklahoma St.110.2
West Virginia109.3
TCU109.3
Kansas St.107.8
Big East
TeamRating
Villanova118.2
Connecticut115.5
Xavier114.0
Seton Hall111.9
Marquette111.6
Providence109.9
Creighton108.1
St. John’s107.7
DePaul105.3
Butler102.7
Georgetown100.6
Big Sky
TeamRating
Weber St.103.6
Montana St.100.6
Southern Utah100.5
Montana100.1
Northern Colorado98.7
Eastern Washington98.2
Portland St.94.3
Sacramento St.90.8
Idaho89.9
Northern Arizona89.6
Idaho St.87.4
Big South
TeamRating
Longwood100.3
Gardner Webb99.2
Winthrop98.7
Campbell97.9
UNC Asheville96.6
High Point94.5
USC Upstate93.8
Presbyterian93.1
North Carolina A&T92.9
Radford92.6
Hampton88.7
Charleston Southern84.7
Big Ten
TeamRating
Purdue119.4
Illinois116.0
Michigan St.114.8
Iowa114.3
Ohio St.113.9
Indiana113.2
Michigan112.5
Wisconsin112.2
Northwestern109.0
Maryland107.6
Penn St.107.5
Minnesota106.3
Rutgers105.5
Nebraska100.5
Big West
TeamRating
UC Irvine103.8
UC Santa Barbara101.7
UC Riverside101.1
Cal St. Fullerton100.2
Hawaii100.2
Long Beach St.98.2
UC Davis96.6
Cal St. Bakersfield96.2
UC San Diego94.5
Cal Poly91.4
Cal St. Northridge90.2
Colonial Athletic
TeamRating
Towson105.2
Hofstra103.7
Delaware101.3
Drexel100.9
Charleston99.4
James Madison98.3
UNC Wilmington97.3
Northeastern95.6
Elon94.5
William & Mary89.2
Conference USA
TeamRating
UAB110.5
North Texas107.4
Louisiana Tech106.4
Western Kentucky102.6
Middle Tennessee101.8
Florida Atlantic101.3
UTEP99.6
Old Dominion99.5
Rice99.5
Charlotte98.3
Marshall97.9
FIU96.0
Southern Miss90.3
UTSA90.1
Horizon
TeamRating
Oakland103.9
Cleveland St.99.8
Detroit Mercy98.2
Wright St.98.0
Northern Kentucky96.4
Youngstown St.96.1
Purdue Fort Wayne95.7
Illinois Chicago94.0
Robert Morris91.8
Milwaukee91.8
Green Bay90.1
IUPUI80.2
Ivy League
TeamRating
Yale101.7
Princeton101.5
Brown99.5
Cornell98.4
Penn98.3
Harvard97.5
Dartmouth96.3
Columbia86.5
Metro Atlantic
TeamRating
Iona107.9
Monmouth103.0
Saint Peter’s100.3
Fairfield99.2
Marist98.6
Niagara98.1
Quinnipiac95.7
Siena94.3
Manhattan94.2
Canisius93.5
Rider92.6
Mid-American
TeamRating
Toledo108.4
Ohio106.3
Buffalo103.6
Akron101.5
Kent St.100.0
Miami OH98.3
Bowling Green97.8
Ball St.96.2
Eastern Michigan94.3
Northern Illinois91.0
Central Michigan88.9
Western Michigan88.8
Mideastern Athletic
TeamRating
Norfolk St.98.2
Howard97.6
North Carolina Central92.6
Coppin St.92.3
Morgan St.90.0
Maryland Eastern Shore88.3
South Carolina St.87.2
Delaware St.78.7
Missouri Valley
TeamRating
Loyola Chicago111.0
Missouri St.108.5
Drake105.7
Bradley104.8
Northern Iowa104.6
Southern Illinois102.4
Indiana St.99.3
Illinois St.99.1
Valparaiso98.1
Evansville92.4
Mountain West
TeamRating
Boise St.110.7
San Diego St.110.6
Utah St.110.1
Colorado St.109.6
Wyoming108.2
Fresno St.107.2
UNLV104.3
Nevada103.1
New Mexico99.8
Air Force96.6
San Jose St.92.2
Northeast
TeamRating
Wagner104.3
Bryant98.4
LIU95.8
Mount St. Mary’s95.7
Merrimack91.8
St. Francis PA91.7
Sacred Heart90.7
St. Francis NY90.4
Fairleigh Dickinson87.3
Central Connecticut86.9
Ohio Valley
TeamRating
Murray St.110.4
Belmont109.1
Morehead St.101.5
Tennessee Tech94.5
Austin Peay93.4
SIU Edwardsville92.7
Southeast Missouri St.92.4
Tennessee St.91.5
Tennessee Martin90.3
Eastern Illinois83.1
Pac-12
TeamRating
Arizona121.2
UCLA118.2
USC112.6
Washington St.111.1
Oregon110.7
Colorado106.5
Stanford106.0
Utah103.9
California103.4
Arizona St.102.9
Washington101.7
Oregon St.100.7
Patriot League
TeamRating
Colgate102.9
Navy101.0
Boston University99.7
Loyola MD94.7
Army93.9
Lehigh91.2
Lafayette90.9
American88.9
Bucknell88.4
Holy Cross85.7
Southeastern
TeamRating
Kentucky120.2
Auburn119.3
Tennessee116.7
LSU116.6
Alabama115.2
Arkansas112.0
Florida111.7
Mississippi St.110.5
Texas A&M108.2
Vanderbilt105.9
South Carolina105.8
Mississippi104.6
Missouri101.2
Georgia98.8
Southern
TeamRating
Furman108.1
Chattanooga107.8
Wofford104.1
VMI99.8
UNC Greensboro99.1
East Tennessee St.98.9
Mercer96.6
Samford96.0
The Citadel94.5
Western Carolina91.6
Southland
TeamRating
Nicholls St.97.9
Texas A&M Corpus Chris94.6
New Orleans93.9
Southeastern Louisiana92.4
McNeese St.91.2
Northwestern St.87.9
Houston Baptist85.2
Incarnate Word84.5
Southwestern Athletic
TeamRating
Texas Southern99.9
Southern97.7
Alcorn St.95.1
Jackson St.93.4
Prairie View A&M92.9
Florida A&M91.1
Grambling St.90.4
Alabama St.89.6
Bethune Cookman87.8
Alabama A&M87.3
Arkansas Pine Bluff82.7
Mississippi Valley St.77.9
Summit
TeamRating
South Dakota St.107.8
Oral Roberts102.8
North Dakota St.100.2
Western Illinois98.3
South Dakota96.6
UMKC96.0
St. Thomas92.7
Denver91.5
Nebraska Omaha86.3
North Dakota86.3
Sun Belt
TeamRating
South Alabama102.4
Appalachian St.100.4
Coastal Carolina100.4
Texas St.100.1
Arkansas St.99.5
Georgia St.99.3
Louisiana99.1
Troy98.6
UT Arlington97.7
Georgia Southern96.8
Louisiana Monroe93.9
Little Rock91.2
West Coast
TeamRating
Gonzaga124.5
Saint Mary’s112.5
BYU111.1
San Francisco110.8
Santa Clara106.8
San Diego100.5
Loyola Marymount99.8
Portland96.6
Pacific95.0
Pepperdine93.6
Western Athletic
TeamRating
New Mexico St.105.0
Grand Canyon103.7
Utah Valley103.5
Seattle102.6
Abilene Christian101.1
Stephen F. Austin100.6
Sam Houston St.99.9
Tarleton St.98.9
Cal Baptist96.8
Dixie St.93.4
UT Rio Grande Valley92.7
Lamar88.4
Chicago St.85.3

Coming Later Today: Updated Bracketology

There was quite a bit of movement in the March Madness field this past weekend, and the Bubble has changed quite a bit since Friday.

November 11, 2021

PiRate Picks–November 11-13, 2021

We almost made it, but a small miss is as good as a long mile. Last week, with a fourth consecutive winning week looking promising, a couple of fourth quarters went against us, and alas we suffered a tiny loss of 0.9%, or less than $5 on $500 invested in imaginary currency.

For the year, our net profit is now 4.88%, so we are still in the black, just barely. This week, we delayed by a day putting this feature online. The reason is that we did not like the overall numbers and wanted the betting public to help us out by moving the money lines just enough for our program to show the parlays to have an edge by finding the best lines. After looking at 11 different books, we still could only find three wagers to play. Four more were monitored closely and might have eventually moved to make them playable, but we like to publish this before Noon on Thursday, and the movements aren’t moving this morning (Thursday at 9:30 AM EST).

These next two weeks historically have seen monumental upsets in college football when teams that appear to be superior to the opponents they are playing have hidden depth issues. It’s not just players that don’t dress out. By this point in the schedule most college teams have 10-20 players that are playing with minor injuries and are not the same as they were four weeks ago. We look for teams that win consistently through the first week in November but tend to lose power ratings while winning, because instead of producing a statistics box that looks like a 20-point win, they produce a statistics box of 15-17 points, and then 10-14 points. We do not update our ratings by final score. We look at the statistics and make a score adjustment based on the domination or lack thereof and then update. A team that wins by 28 points and is out-gained by 50 yards where the opponent lost fumbles in the Red Zone may actually receive credit for a 14-point “effective win.” A team that wins by 11 points but ends the game at the opponent’s five yard line and chooses to take a knee may receive credit for an 18-point effective win.

You will also notice that since early in the season, we have stopped playing NFL parlays in this feature. The variance in the games is making it impossible for our method to isolate on enough games to make a favorable parlay. We think there are two reasons for this. First, even though there are lousy teams like Detroit, there are no dominant teams that can be counted on to win when they are favored by less than a touchdown. Second, now that many millions more people can legally wager, the odds no longer move by large enough amounts to create favorable odds. There are 60+ college games to find favorable numbers, and the public may not find a Mountain West Conference game worth much, while we do. There are 13-16 NFL games per week, and even Detroit, San Francisco, and Miami get heavy action. We’d like to play three underdogs this week, but the numbers are not favorable according to our program.

Here are our three selections for this week. Remember, we never wager real money on these picks. If we don’t, do you think you should?

Odds:+185
Must WinOpponent
East CarolinaMemphis

Odds:+205.47
Must WinOpponent
Kansas St.West Virginia
Air ForceColorado St.
Oklahoma St.TCU

Odds:+152.71
Must WinOpponent
LouisianaTroy
OklahomaBaylor
OregonWashington St.

October 27, 2021

PiRate Picks–October 28-30, 2021

Back To Back Winning Weeks

Usually, the middle of October to the middle of November has been the period where our college football parlay picks have made their move into positive territory, and this year has been another example of that. After going north and south of the break-even line, in the last two weeks, a couple of big wins with fat payouts has taken our imaginary bankroll and turned it from red to black numbers.

We won two of the four parlays, one paying out at +187 and the other at +147.40. That comes to a 33.6% return on investment for the weekend. For the year, $3,500 in imaginary funds have been wagered with the sports books, and $3,704.28 in imaginary funds have been returned for an ROI of 5.84%.

Last week, we did not particularly like the games overall. It was difficult finding suitable parlays with payouts better than +120 that our “system” said had a better chance than the minimum needed to show a profit. The week before, too many games presented themselves as playable, and we had to limit the ones we wanted.

This week, it is somewhere in between. We selected to underdogs to win outright with rather fat payout odds. Our methods say these two games are virtual tossup games, so if we can get better than +120 on these games, we feel compelled to take the ‘dogs.

However, after the two straight up upset selections, we spent an extra hour plus trying to combine games into suitable odds while remaining confident that the teams would win.

So, without further adieu, here are our five selections for this week.

Note: Corrected Parlay after astute football guru Dustdog spotted an error.

Date:October 28-30


Odds:


+360
Must WinOpponent
UTEPFlorida Atlantic


Odds:+170
Must WinOpponent
Michigan St.Michigan


Odds:+225.59
Must WinOpponent
IllinoisRutgers
Notre DameNorth Carolina


Odds:+269.54
Must WinOpponent
Central FloridaTemple
Kansas St.TCU
RiceNorth Texas


Odds:+150
Must WinOpponent
Utah St.Hawaii
San Jose St.Wyoming

October 20, 2021

PiRate Picks–October 21-23, 2021

What a minor difference a week made! After just missing on three big-payout parlays two weeks ago, we played the same strategy last week and made a minor splash thanks to the help of one long shot parlay that won and returned better than 3 to 1 odds. With another win at +187, we made a small profit last week, but large enough to turn our minor net loss for the season into a net gain of 2.3%.

Of course, as we say every week, our financial loss or gain is merely imaginary, as we are playing with imaginary funds that never run out but never accrue. This feature is presented just for fun, and we strongly urge you not to wager real money on what you read here, unless it merely validates your research.

This week presents the fewest number of games that met our criteria this year in any week. We could only go with four parlays of two teams apiece. None are major long shots, but they all top +120, which is the minimum odds we will play. Enjoy!

Date:

October 21-25

Odds:+187
Must WinOpponent
Central FloridaMemphis
Notre DameUSC

Odds:+147.40
Must WinOpponent
Eastern MichiganBowling Green
Kent St.Ohio U


Odds:+138.99
Must WinOpponent
San Jose St.UNLV
Ball St.Miami (O)


Odds:+131.08
Must WinOpponent
MinnesotaMaryland
TCUWest Virginia

September 8, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 9-13, 2021

Last week’s opening picks missed, as Virginia Tech made Sam Howell look like Thurston Howell. Duke then failed to show up against Charlotte, and poof, our two picks were destroyed. Such is life when you wager on parlays that return the odds we look for when we place our imaginary wagers.

We have two more picks returning some fat odds this week, and maybe we’ll get lucky and hit on one. We will also tell you a week 1 tip for the NFL. Although we are here just for Money Line Parlays this year, it doesn’t mean we cannot give out a little interesting information.

Here are our two Money Line Parlays for Week two of the college season. We will eventually pick some NFL games, but Week one is not the time and place for that.

Parlay 1

Odds:+224
Must WinOpponent
VirginiaIllinois
RutgersSyracuse
MichiganWashington

Parlay 2

Odds:+180.56
Must WinOpponent
Mississippi St.North Carolina St.
TCUCalifornia

Here’s our tip for Week 1 of the NFL season. Underdogs of 1 to 3 points tend to win outright 50% of the time, but they also lose by less than 3 points another 8-10% of the time. That’s 58-60% success for wagering on 3-point Underdogs.

There are seven games as of this writing with a 3-point spread. The Dogs are:

Houston against Jacksonville

Arizona against Tennessee

Philadelphia against Atlanta

Indianapolis against Seattle

Cincinnati against Minnesota

Miami against New England

N.Y. Giants against Denver

December 29, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads For December 30-31, 2017

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:56 am
Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Connecticut Wichita St. -10.0
Houston Temple 8.6
North Carolina Wake Forest 14.0
Duke Florida St. 10.6
Virginia Boston College 16.2
Notre Dame Georgia Tech 16.5
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) -11.8
Clemson N. C. State 8.5
TCU Oklahoma 1.4
Xavier DePaul 16.1
Butler Villanova -7.9
Marquette Georgetown 8.3
Nevada New Mexico 15.7
San Diego St. Utah St. 10.1
UNLV Boise St. 4.0
Arizona Arizona St. 2.5
Stanford California 7.1
Arkansas Tennessee 5.2
Florida Vanderbilt 9.1
Alabama Texas A&M -4.1
BYU Saint Mary’s 0.2
Gonzaga Santa Clara 25.2
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Tulane Tulsa 2.0
Cincinnati Memphis 20.1
East Carolina Central Florida -10.9
SMU South Florida 22.3
Syracuse Virginia Tech 0.1
Creighton Providence 10.2
Seton Hall St. John’s 8.1
Oregon St. Utah -4.0
UCLA Washington 9.0
USC Washington St. 14.1
Oregon Colorado 11.4
Kentucky Georgia 9.8
Ole Miss South Carolina 2.0

 

 

October 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Toledo -29.0 -26.8 -29.3
Georgia St. South Alabama -0.7 -3.5 -1.1
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.3 1.6
Oregon St. Stanford -25.0 -23.9 -25.8
Boston College Florida St. -11.7 -10.5 -10.5
Memphis Tulane 12.3 11.5 11.9
SMU Tulsa 4.6 4.9 5.2
Purdue Nebraska 5.4 4.3 7.0
Kentucky Tennessee 6.4 6.9 7.7
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.8 8.6 9.2
Akron Buffalo 4.2 4.3 2.7
South Florida Houston 13.5 12.7 14.7
Wake Forest Louisville -3.4 -3.8 -3.6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) -19.1 -17.9 -19.6
Michigan Rutgers 20.0 20.2 19.5
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13.2 14.2 14.3
Massachusetts Appalachian St. -4.6 -3.5 -4.3
Pittsburgh Virginia 6.2 6.9 5.1
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.0 13.8 14.7
Connecticut Missouri -9.8 -5.3 -8.6
West Virginia Oklahoma St. -11.3 -9.7 -12.0
Maryland Indiana -0.9 0.4 -1.6
Virginia Tech Duke 18.5 18.7 20.2
Illinois Wisconsin -30.8 -26.5 -30.8
Coastal Carolina Texas St. 3.9 2.4 6.4
Deleted Game 0 0 0
Kansas Kansas St. -29.6 -26.4 -30.5
Iowa Minnesota 9.5 8.5 10.0
Wyoming New Mexico 7.2 6.1 5.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -3.1 -6.4 -4.3
BYU San Jose St. 15.0 14.8 15.1
UTEP UTSA -18.4 -17.3 -19.5
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe 1.8 2.5 3.3
Colorado St. Air Force 15.8 14.0 15.6
Southern Miss. UAB 17.4 15.2 15.8
Colorado California 3.9 4.7 3.2
Arizona St. USC -5.0 -5.3 -4.7
Rice Louisiana Tech -10.8 -11.4 -11.3
Oregon Utah 5.3 1.8 3.9
Notre Dame N. Carolina St. 5.7 4.9 6.3
Washington UCLA 23.7 21.8 24.7
Troy Georgia Southern 23.8 22.5 24.0
Northwestern Michigan St. 10.4 7.1 9.5
Deleted Game 0 0 0
North Texas Old Dominion 3.4 2.7 3.9
Baylor Texas -12.9 -11.7 -13.7
Iowa St. TCU -6.6 -4.1 -6.1
Florida (n) Georgia -12.3 -13.6 -13.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 0.6 -2.3 0.1
Arizona Washington St. -10.0 -8.7 -10.7
Oklahoma Texas Tech 20.3 19.3 21.5
Ole Miss Arkansas 6.4 5.5 5.6
Ohio St. Penn St. 9.0 8.4 7.8
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 1.4 -1.5 0.5
Utah St. Boise St. -6.4 -5.5 -6.4
Fresno St. UNLV 16.4 12.9 17.4
Hawaii San Diego St. -7.1 -6.2 -8.0
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Florida Austin Peay 41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Penn St.
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Notre Dame
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Central Florida
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Michigan St.
15 Stanford
16 Virginia Tech
17 North Carolina St.
18 Washington St.
19 USC
20 Auburn
21 South Florida
22 Michigan
23 Texas A&M
24 Mississippi St.
25 LSU
26 Iowa St.
27 Memphis
28 Georgia Tech
29 Toledo
30 West Virginia
31 Iowa
32 Boise St.
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona St.
35 Navy
36 Louisville
37 Fresno St.
38 San Diego St.
39 Arizona
40 Florida St.
41 Wake Forest
42 Texas
43 Northwestern
44 UCLA
45 Florida
46 Boston College
47 Texas Tech
48 Marshall
49 Colorado St.
50 Kentucky
51 SMU
52 Syracuse
53 Oregon
54 Northern Illinois
55 Indiana
56 California
57 Utah
58 Purdue
59 Virginia
60 Western Michigan
61 Houston
62 Troy
63 Minnesota
64 Maryland
65 Appalachian St.
66 Kansas St.
67 Army
68 Florida Atlantic
69 Duke
70 Pittsburgh
71 Southern Miss.
72 Nebraska
73 Colorado
74 Tennessee
75 Ohio
76 Ole Miss
77 Arkansas St.
78 Vanderbilt
79 Tulane
80 Akron
81 Arkansas
82 Air Force
83 Rutgers
84 Wyoming
85 North Texas
86 Utah St.
87 UTSA
88 New Mexico
89 Louisiana Tech
90 Florida Int’l.
91 Western Kentucky
92 Missouri
93 Tulsa
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Central Michigan
96 Cincinnati
97 Temple
98 North Carolina
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico St.
101 Miami (O)
102 Georgia St.
103 Middle Tennessee
104 South Alabama
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 UL-Monroe
109 UAB
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 UNLV
113 Hawaii
114 Oregon St.
115 BYU
116 UL-Lafayette
117 Old Dominion
118 Kent St.
119 Idaho
120 Bowling Green
121 Massachusetts
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Charlotte
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Georgia Southern
130 Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
3 Penn St. 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
4 Georgia 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
5 Washington 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
6 Clemson 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
7 Auburn 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
8 Oklahoma St. 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
9 Virginia Tech 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
10 Oklahoma 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
11 Miami 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
12 Notre Dame 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
13 Wisconsin 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
14 Stanford 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
15 T C U 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
16 Florida St. 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
17 N. Carolina St. 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
18 Washington St. 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
19 U S C 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
20 L S U 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
21 Georgia Tech 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
22 Texas 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
24 Florida 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
25 Louisville 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
26 Michigan 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
27 Kansas St. 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
29 Iowa State 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
30 Mississippi St. 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
31 Syracuse 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
32 Northwestern 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
33 West Virginia 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
34 Iowa 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
35 Texas A&M 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
36 Arizona St. 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
37 S. Carolina 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
38 Kentucky 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
39 Wake Forest 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
40 U C L A 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
41 Boston College 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
42 Duke 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
43 Colo. State 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
44 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
45 Oregon 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
46 Indiana 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
47 Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
48 Michigan St. 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
49 Memphis 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
50 Utah 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
51 Arizona 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
52 California 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
53 Texas Tech 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
54 Minnesota 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
55 Ole Miss 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
56 Purdue 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
59 Toledo 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
60 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
61 Virginia 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
62 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
63 Houston 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
64 Maryland 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
65 Arkansas 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
66 Nebraska 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
67 Baylor 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
68 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
69 N. Carolina 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
70 SMU 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
71 San Diego St. 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
72 Army 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
73 Missouri 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
74 Fresno St. 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
75 Tulsa 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Eastern Michigan 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
77 Florida Atlantic 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
78 Tulane 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
79 Troy 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
80 Ohio U 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
82 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
83 Marshall 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
84 Appalachian St. 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
85 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
86 Northern Illinois 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
87 Utah St. 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
88 U T S A 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
89 Air Force 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
90 W. Kentucky 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
91 Temple 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
92 Oregon St. 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
93 Central Michigan 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
94 New Mexico 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
95 Miami (O) 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
96 Louisiana Tech 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
97 BYU 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
98 Massachusetts 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
99 Cincinnati 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
100 Illinois 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
101 N. Mexico St. 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
103 Akron 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
104 S. Alabama 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
105 Nevada 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
106 Connecticut 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
107 Buffalo 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
108 Hawaii 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
109 U N L V 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
110 Middle Tennessee 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
111 Florida Int’l. 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
112 N. Texas 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
113 Old Dominion 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
114 Georgia St. 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
115 East Carolina 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
116 UL-Lafayette 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
117 Kansas 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
118 UL-Monroe 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
119 Idaho 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
120 Bowling Green 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
121 Kent St. 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
122 San Jose St. 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
123 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
124 Georgia Southern 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
125 UAB 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
126 U T E P 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
129 Ball St. 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
130 Texas St. 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 6-0 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
South Florida 4-0 7-0 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
Connecticut 2-3 3-4 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 3-1 6-1 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
Houston 2-2 4-3 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
SMU 2-1 5-2 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
Tulsa 1-3 2-6 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
Florida St. 2-3 2-4 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
Louisville 2-3 5-3 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
Wake Forest 1-3 4-3 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
Boston College 2-3 4-4 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 2-1 6-1 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 4-0 6-0 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
Duke 1-4 4-4 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
Pittsburgh 1-3 3-5 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
Virginia 2-1 5-2 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
N. Carolina 0-5 1-7 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 3-1 6-1 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
T C U 4-0 7-0 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
Texas 2-2 3-4 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
Kansas St. 1-3 3-4 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
Iowa State 3-1 5-2 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
West Virginia 3-1 5-2 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
Texas Tech 1-3 4-3 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
Baylor 0-4 0-7 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
Kansas 0-4 1-6 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
Penn St. 4-0 7-0 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
Michigan 2-2 5-2 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
Indiana 0-4 3-4 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
Michigan St. 4-0 6-1 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
Maryland 1-3 3-4 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
Rutgers 2-2 3-4 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-0 7-0 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
Northwestern 2-2 4-3 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
Iowa 1-3 4-3 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
Minnesota 1-3 4-3 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
Purdue 1-3 3-4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
Illinois 0-4 2-5 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 3-0 4-3 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
Marshall 3-0 6-1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
W. Kentucky 3-1 5-2 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
Old Dominion 0-3 2-5 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 1-2 4-2 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
Louisiana Tech 1-2 3-4 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
Southern Miss. 3-1 5-2 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
N. Texas 3-1 4-3 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
Rice 1-2 1-6 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
U T E P 0-3 0-7 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
Army   6-2 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
BYU   1-7 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
Massachusetts   1-6 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
             
Indep. Averages     99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
Akron 3-1 4-4 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-1 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 2-5 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
Ball St. 0-3 2-5 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 4-0 6-2 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
Boise St. 3-0 5-2 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
Wyoming 2-1 4-3 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
Utah St. 2-2 4-4 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
Air Force 2-2 3-4 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
New Mexico 1-3 3-4 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-2 6-2 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
Fresno St. 4-0 5-2 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
U N L V 1-3 2-5 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
Stanford 4-1 5-2 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
Oregon 1-4 4-4 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
California 1-4 4-4 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-2 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
Arizona St. 3-1 4-3 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
U C L A 2-2 4-3 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
Colorado 1-4 4-4 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
Utah 1-3 4-3 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
Arizona 3-1 5-2 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
Florida 3-2 3-3 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
Kentucky 2-2 5-2 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
Missouri 0-4 2-5 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
L S U 3-1 6-2 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
Mississippi St. 2-2 5-2 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
Arkansas 0-4 2-5 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 2-1 5-2 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-2 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
S. Alabama 2-1 3-4 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
Georgia St. 2-1 3-3 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
UL-Monroe 3-2 3-4 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
Idaho 1-2 2-5 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-6 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
Coastal Carolina 0-4 1-6 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC North Texas South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Houston Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Arizona
New Mexico CUSA MWC La. Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC N. Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Colorado] Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Fla. Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 SMU [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Arkansas St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Navy San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Virginia [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Iowa USC
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [Western Ky.] Boston Coll.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech West Virginia
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Georgia St.
Cotton At-large At-large TCU Arizona St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1

 

 

October 16, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 19-21, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:52 am

This week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Louisiana-Lafayette 9.0 8.7 10.4
Houston Memphis 0.4 0.6 0.1
Old Dominion Western Kentucky -8.3 -5.2 -9.3
Middle Tennessee Marshall -1.8 -2.2 -3.0
Nevada Air Force -2.8 -1.4 -1.4
New Mexico Colorado St. -12.0 -11.0 -11.5
Army Temple 8.3 7.8 9.1
Wisconsin Maryland 24.0 18.8 22.7
Texas Tech Iowa St. 0.7 -0.1 -1.0
Toledo Akron 15.0 12.3 15.4
Missouri Idaho 16.4 12.4 14.6
Northwestern Iowa 4.2 2.4 4.6
Connecticut Tulsa -11.3 -8.5 -10.9
Florida St. Louisville 13.9 13.3 13.1
Rutgers Purdue -6.2 -5.9 -7.4
Duke Pittsburgh 7.3 5.9 6.8
Virginia Boston College 6.3 5.6 7.0
Georgia St. Troy -5.0 -5.9 -4.3
Eastern Michigan Western Michigan -0.7 0.0 -1.6
Ohio U Kent St. 14.1 14.2 14.5
Bowling Green Northern Illinois -5.6 -4.4 -5.4
Miami (O) Buffalo 7.3 6.8 6.2
Ball St. Central Michigan -12.4 -11.0 -11.7
Minnesota Illinois 19.7 19.1 20.7
Virginia Tech North Carolina 18.4 18.7 20.0
Michigan St. Indiana 1.5 3.5 1.6
Alabama Tennessee 37.4 34.7 38.2
Appalachian St. Coastal Carolina 30.8 27.5 29.5
Navy Central Florida -11.4 -12.6 -12.5
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 13.7 13.3 13.9
Massachusetts Georgia Southern 10.5 8.3 10.9
Utah Arizona St. 4.4 7.0 4.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma -6.6 -5.6 -7.0
TCU Kansas 42.5 37.0 44.1
Texas Oklahoma St. -7.9 -6.1 -8.5
UCLA Oregon 0.1 2.1 0.5
Cincinnati SMU -9.3 -7.2 -8.5
Mississippi St. Kentucky -0.3 1.4 0.6
South Alabama Louisiana-Monroe 8.0 9.8 9.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 8.7 10.0 9.3
UNLV Utah St. -3.1 0.0 -2.4
Charlotte UAB 1.7 0.5 -0.2
Tulane South Florida -14.1 -12.5 -14.8
UTSA Rice 19.8 20.7 21.2
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 3.6 4.0 4.2
East Carolina BYU -9.0 -6.7 -9.0
Ole Miss LSU -6.3 -6.1 -8.6
Arkansas Auburn -18.6 -17.2 -19.1
Georgia Tech Wake Forest 11.7 10.6 10.5
Penn St. Michigan 18.2 15.9 19.9
Notre Dame USC 2.3 1.5 3.2
Baylor West Virginia -8.3 -7.0 -8.7
California Arizona 3.9 2.7 3.3
Boise St. Wyoming 11.3 10.9 12.4
San Diego St. Fresno St. 9.4 11.0 9.7
Washington St. Colorado 10.7 9.8 12.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings–Ranks the teams based on what they have done to date.  This rating is better to gauge what the teams have done so far rather than how they might fare going forward.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.7
2 Penn St. 130.8
3 Georgia 130.6
4 TCU 129.3
5 Clemson 128.7
6 Ohio St. 128.5
7 Wisconsin 127.9
8 Miami (Fla) 127.0
9 Notre Dame 126.7
10 USC 126.4
11 Central Florida 126.2
12 Washington 125.8
13 Oklahoma St. 125.1
14 Oklahoma 124.9
15 Stanford 124.2
16 Michigan St. 123.7
17 Michigan 123.3
18 North Carolina St. 123.0
19 Washington St. 122.2
20 Virginia Tech 121.6
21 South Florida 121.5
22 Texas A&M 121.2
23 Auburn 120.8
24 Iowa 119.9
25 San Diego St. 119.4
26 Mississippi St. 118.9
27 Florida St. 118.8
28 Memphis 118.6
29 Wake Forest 117.3
30 Texas Tech 116.8
31 West Virginia 116.4
32 LSU 116.3
33 Kentucky 116.1
34 Boise St. 115.9
35 Navy 115.2
36 South Carolina 114.7
37 Virginia 113.8
38 Toledo 113.1
39 Iowa St. 112.0
40 Utah 110.9
41 Oregon 110.5
42 California 110.1
43 Texas 110.0
44 Arizona St. 109.8
45 Georgia Tech 109.5
46 Florida 109.2
47 Louisville 108.7
48 Arizona 108.5
49 Purdue 107.7
50 Northwestern 107.4
51 Houston 106.9
52 Duke 106.3
53 Colorado St. 105.8
54 Indiana 104.6
55 Syracuse 103.9
56 UCLA 103.4
57 Marshall 103.2
58 Western Michigan 103.1
59 Fresno St. 103.0
60 Colorado 102.8
61 Minnesota 102.1
62 SMU 101.8
63 Maryland 101.6
64 Northern Illinois 101.5
65 Boston College 100.9
66 Appalachian St. 100.4
67 Troy 100.0
68 Kansas St. 99.7
69 Army 98.6
70 Ole Miss 97.2
71 North Texas 97.1
72 Tennessee 96.7
73 Nebraska 96.4
74 Louisiana Tech 96.3
75 Vanderbilt 95.6
76 Southern Miss. 95.2
77 Florida Atlantic 95.0
78 Tulane 94.8
79 Akron 94.6
80 Wyoming 94.5
81 Arkansas 92.9
82 Ohio 92.8
83 Western Kentucky 92.6
84 Air Force 92.0
85 Arkansas St. 91.8
86 Tulsa 91.7
87 Pittsburgh 91.3
88 New Mexico 91.1
89 UTSA 90.7
90 Temple 90.2
91 Utah St. 89.9
92 North Carolina 89.5
93 Buffalo 89.3
94 Florida Int’l. 88.7
95 UAB 88.1
96 Middle Tennessee 87.0
97 Cincinnati 85.7
98 Rutgers 85.1
99 New Mexico St. 84.2
100 Eastern Michigan 83.9
101 UL-Monroe 83.6
102 Georgia St. 83.4
103 UL-Lafayette 81.9
104 Illinois 81.2
105 UNLV 81.0
106 Central Michigan 80.7
107 Miami (O) 80.5
108 Baylor 80.4
109 Missouri 80.4
110 South Alabama 80.3
111 Oregon St. 79.9
112 Hawaii 79.7
113 BYU 79.6
114 Connecticut 79.5
115 Idaho 79.4
116 Nevada 78.9
117 Kent St. 78.7
118 Old Dominion 78.1
119 East Carolina 77.8
120 Bowling Green 77.5
121 Ball St. 77.0
122 Kansas 76.2
123 Rice 75.7
124 Georgia Southern 75.3
125 Massachusetts 75.1
126 Coastal Carolina 74.6
127 San Jose St. 74.2
128 UTEP 73.5
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 71.9

Predictive Ratings–This rating is a forward-looking rating trying to predict the outcome of future games.  Unlike other predictive ratings, ours are geared toward only each teams’ next game, because we adjust our ratings based on many factors that cannot be reflected just from the score of the games.  A team that is predicted to win by 14 points that wins by exactly 14 points might be expected to retain an identical rating the following week, but we adjust for things like depth, how the score became a 14-point victory, how the teams’ past opponents fared during the week (more weight given to recent games than early games), etc.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
3 Penn St. 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
4 Washington 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
5 Clemson 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
6 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
7 Oklahoma St. 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
8 Auburn 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
9 Florida St. 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
10 Oklahoma 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
11 Miami 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
12 Wisconsin 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
13 Stanford 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
14 T C U 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
15 U S C 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
17 N. Carolina St. 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
18 Notre Dame 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
19 Washington St. 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
20 Georgia Tech 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
21 L S U 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
22 Texas 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
23 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
24 Michigan 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
25 Florida 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
26 South Florida 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
27 Kansas St. 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
28 Louisville 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
29 Northwestern 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
30 Kentucky 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
31 West Virginia 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
32 Syracuse 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
33 Iowa 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
34 Iowa State 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
35 Texas A&M 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
36 Mississippi St. 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
37 S. Carolina 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
38 Utah 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
39 Colorado 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
40 Duke 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
41 Wake Forest 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
42 Oregon 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
43 Texas Tech 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
44 Colo. State 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
45 Indiana 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
46 Virginia 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
47 Arizona St. 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
48 Minnesota 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
49 U C L A 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
50 California 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
51 Michigan St. 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
52 Ole Miss 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
53 Arizona 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
54 Memphis 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
55 Purdue 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
56 Pittsburgh 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
59 Arkansas 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
60 N. Carolina 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
61 Boston College 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
63 Houston 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
64 Maryland 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
65 Navy 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
66 San Diego St. 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
67 Nebraska 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
69 Baylor 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
70 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
71 SMU 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
72 Army 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
73 Tulsa 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
75 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
76 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
77 Tulane 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
78 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
79 Rutgers 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
80 Fresno St. 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
81 U T S A 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
82 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
83 W. Kentucky 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
84 Florida Atlantic 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
85 Oregon St. 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
86 Marshall 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
87 Air Force 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
88 Temple 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
89 BYU 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
90 Arkansas St. 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
91 Utah St. 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
93 New Mexico 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
95 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
96 Louisiana Tech 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
97 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
98 Akron 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
99 N. Mexico St. 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
100 Illinois 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
101 Cincinnati 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
102 Southern Miss. 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
103 Middle Tennessee 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
104 Nevada 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
105 S. Alabama 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
106 U N L V 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
107 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
108 N. Texas 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
109 Hawaii 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
110 Georgia St. 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
111 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
112 Massachusetts 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
113 Connecticut 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
114 Idaho 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
115 Florida Int’l. 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
116 Old Dominion 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
117 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
118 Kansas 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
119 UL-Monroe 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
120 East Carolina 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 UAB 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
127 Charlotte 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 U T E P 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
129 Texas St. 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
130 Coastal Carolina 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 3-0 5-0 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
South Florida 3-0 6-0 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
Temple 1-3 3-4 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
Cincinnati 0-3 2-5 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
Connecticut 1-3 2-4 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
East Carolina 1-3 1-6 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-1 5-1 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
Houston 2-1 4-2 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
Navy 3-1 5-1 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-2 2-5 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
Tulane 1-1 3-3 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
             
AAC Averages     97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
Florida St. 2-2 2-3 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
Louisville 1-3 4-3 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
Syracuse 2-1 4-3 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
Boston College 1-3 3-4 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 3-0 5-0 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
Duke 1-3 4-3 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
Virginia 2-0 5-1 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
Pittsburgh 0-3 2-5 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
N. Carolina 0-4 1-6 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 2-1 5-1 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
Oklahoma 2-1 5-1 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
T C U 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
Texas 2-1 3-3 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
Kansas St. 1-2 3-3 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
West Virginia 2-1 4-2 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
Iowa State 2-1 4-2 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
Texas Tech 1-2 4-2 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
Baylor 0-3 0-6 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
Kansas 0-3 1-5 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
             
Big 12 Averages     109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
Michigan 2-1 5-1 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
Indiana 0-3 3-3 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
Michigan St. 3-0 5-1 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
Maryland 1-2 3-3 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
Rutgers 1-2 2-4 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 3-0 6-0 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
Northwestern 1-2 3-3 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
Iowa 1-2 4-2 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
Minnesota 0-3 3-3 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
Purdue 1-2 3-3 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
Illinois 0-3 2-4 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 2-1 4-2 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
Marshall 2-0 5-1 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
Middle Tennessee 1-2 3-4 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
Old Dominion 0-2 2-4 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
Charlotte 0-3 0-7 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-2 3-2 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
Southern Miss. 2-1 4-2 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
N. Texas 3-0 4-2 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
Rice 1-1 1-5 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
U T E P 0-3 0-7 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
Army   5-2 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
BYU   1-6 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
             
Indep. Averages     98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 2-1 5-2 92.0 93.3 92.8 92.7
Miami (O) 1-2 2-5 88.2 90.3 89.3 89.3
Akron 3-0 4-3 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
Buffalo 1-2 3-4 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Bowling Green 1-2 1-6 81.5 82.5 82.1 82.0
Kent St. 1-2 2-5 80.3 81.7 80.8 80.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 2-0 5-1 100.6 100.5 101.9 101.0
Western Michigan 2-1 4-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-4 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 2-0 4-2 90.9 90.7 91.6 91.0
Central Michigan 1-2 3-4 87.7 88.6 88.1 88.1
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.2 76.4 75.4 75.3
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 3-0 5-2 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
Boise St. 2-0 4-2 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
Wyoming 2-0 4-2 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
Air Force 1-2 2-4 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
Utah St. 1-2 3-4 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-2 3-3 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-1 6-1 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
Fresno St. 3-0 4-2 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
Nevada 1-2 1-6 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
U N L V 1-2 2-4 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
Stanford 4-1 5-2 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
Oregon 1-3 4-3 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
California 1-3 4-3 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-1 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
Utah 1-2 4-2 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
Colorado 1-3 4-3 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
Arizona St. 2-1 3-3 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
U C L A 1-2 3-3 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
Arizona 2-1 4-2 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
Florida 3-2 3-3 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
Kentucky 2-1 5-1 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
Tennessee 0-3 3-3 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
Missouri 0-4 1-5 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-0 7-0 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
Auburn 3-1 5-2 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
L S U 2-1 5-2 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
Mississippi St. 1-2 4-2 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
Ole Miss 1-2 3-3 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
Arkansas 0-3 2-4 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 3-0 4-2 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
Troy 1-1 4-2 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
Arkansas St. 2-0 3-2 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
S. Alabama 1-1 2-4 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
Georgia St. 2-0 3-2 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-3 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
Idaho 1-2 2-4 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
UL-Monroe 3-1 3-3 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-5 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
Coastal Carolina 0-3 1-5 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
3 BIG 12 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
4 PAC-12 110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
7 AAC 97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
8 MWC 92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
9 MAC 88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

Bowl Projections

You probably see bowl projections from many sites, and from what we have learned, many of them just throw teams into the slots based on how they think in their head without really looking at the remaining schedules and then plotting how the committees will allot teams.

The PiRates project the won-loss records of all 130 teams every week, and then look at the bowls as the committees and leagues would look at them.  Thus, ours are always going to be a bit unique and will not follow in lockstep with the big sites where they really do not have a lot of time to devote to this task.  This feature actually takes up more time than anything else we do other than our college basketball March Madness submissions.

Thus, rather than just state the bowl projections this week, how about we explain our selections.  Also, we apologize for all the abbreviations, but apparently many of you that use your phone to access our site cannot read this feature unless we do so.  Tabular data can be difficult at times to display in an aesthetically brilliant manner.

American Athletic Conference

Central Florida and South Florida could be heading to an incredible final regular season game, where the winner not only takes the East Division title, but they enter AAC Championship play undefeated as the odds-on favorite to snag the New Year’s 6 Bowl invitation.  If by some strange possibility that there are less than three one-loss or undefeated Power 5 conference teams, then an undefeated UCF or USF might have an outside shot at making the playoffs.

In the West, Houston, Memphis, and Navy look to vie for the division flag, with SMU also an outside possibility.  We like the Cougars to cop that flag, mostly because they host Memphis this week and should bounce back with their best game of the month.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: With the AAC Champion predicted to make the NY6 bowl, this league needs 8 bowl eligible teams to fill its contracts, so having just 6 bowl eligible teams will open up two bowls (Birmingham & Gasparilla) to at-large entries.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson’s loss to Syracuse doesn’t end the Tigers’ shot at defending their national title, as this loss was about on par with last year’s loss to Pittsburgh.  However, in order to get there, CU must win out, and that includes having to beat NC State in Raleigh and then the Coastal Division champion in the ACC Championship Game.  At this point, our belief is that it will not happen for the Tigers this season.

Miami has survived close games against Florida State and Georgia Tech the last two weeks.  The Hurricanes have to fend off Virginia Tech and the up and coming Virginia Cavaliers, and we think Mark Richt’s team will be able to make it to the ACC Championship Game.

For the time being, our belief is that North Carolina State will hold off Clemson and then take out Miami to win the ACC Championship, but we also believe the Wolf Pack will lose one conference game, leaving them with a record of 11-2, which will keep them out of the playoffs.

Notre Dame figures in the ACC Bowl Tie-ins, as the Irish can trump any ACC team that has just one more victory than they do.  In other words, if Virginia goes 10-2, and Notre Dame goes 9-3, the Irish can jump over the Cavs in the bowl pecking order.

As of today, we have Notre Dame pegged for a 10-2 finish, which will not give them a good enough slate to make the playoffs, but it will put them in the NY6 Bowl group.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 11 (which includes Notre Dame)

Result: Under this scenario, NC State would earn the Orange Bowl bid as the ACC Champion.  Notre Dame and one other team (Miami is our choice this week) would receive NY6 Bowls, while Clemson would fall to the Citrus Bowl.  Under this scenario, the ACC-Notre Dame alliance would actually need 12 bowl eligible teams, while they would have just 11 bowl eligible teams.  This would open up the Quick Lane Bowl for an at-large team.

Big 12

This is going to be highly ironic for this league.  The Big 12 kept losing out in the playoff picture due to a lack of having a conference championship game like the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.  This year, there will be a Big 12 Championship Game, but unlike the others, it will pit the number one versus the number two team in the standings.  Since the Big 12 teams all play each other, it guarantees a rematch for the title game.  There is just enough parity in this league this year that the number one team can sweep the number two team or vice versa.  Thus, the conference championship game could be the one factor that keeps the Big 12 out of the playoffs.  Yes, ironic indeed.

TCU is the lone unbeaten left in the league, but the Horned Frogs would have to win at Oklahoma and then beat one of the Oklahoma teams a second time in order to make the playoffs.  There are scenarios were TCU could lose to Oklahoma in the regular season and then win the Big 12 Championship Game and squeak into the playoffs, but for now, we believe there might be another scenario.  We currently project Oklahoma State to win out, including beating Oklahoma and then taking TCU in the rematch for the conference title.  At 12-1, we show Oklahoma State to be the #4 team entering the playoffs.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 7

Result: With Oklahoma State going to the Playoffs, and with the possibility that both Oklahoma and TCU could have two losses at the end of the season, we project no other conference team to receive a bid to a NY6 bowl.  With 7 projected bowl eligible teams, the league would have exactly the number needed to furnish its bowl obligations.

We came up with 7 bowl eligible teams, because we believe that two teams from among Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech will get to 6 wins, while one finishes 5-7.  For now, we believe there will be exactly 78 bowl eligible teams to fill the 78 slots, so no 5-7 teams will be needed to fill spots.

Big Ten

This is perhaps the most interesting league this year.  Ohio State lost early at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes were dismissed as a potential title-contender.  Remember that Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech the year they won the national championship in the very first playoff season.  Since losing at home to the Sooners, Urban Meyer’s team has done exactly what his Florida team did in 2008 after losing at home to Ole Miss.

Penn State is the darling team in this league at the present time, and the Nittany Lions should handle Michigan this week.  However, James Franklin’s squad has road dates against Michigan State and Ohio State lurking.  We believe Penn State can win in East Lansing, but Ohio State will be almost impossible to beat in Columbus.  The Buckeyes have been looking forward to getting revenge over last year’s upset loss in Happy Valley, and we believe Ohio State will win convincingly and then run the table.

The end of that table could be the demise of an undefeated season for Wisconsin, much like Iowa falling to Penn State in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.  If this happens, then both Penn State and Wisconsin will be one loss teams that both lost to a playoff team.  That, along with the huge fan bases, would be enough to propel both one-loss teams into NY6 bowls.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Putting Ohio State into the playoffs, and both Penn State and Wisconsin into NY6 bowls, the Big Ten would need 10 bowl eligible teams, while we project just 9 to make it.  Thus, the Armed Forces Bowl would need to find an at-large replacement.

Conference USA

Up to now, you have seen multiple bowls that will need at-large replacements for conferences that will not supply enough bowl-eligible teams, yet you have not seen us list a league with extra teams available.  CUSA is going to strike it rich this year, as this league should have quite an excess of bowl eligible teams after fulfilling the allotted contracts.

There is no overwhelming favorite in the league, even at the halfway point of the season.  Because of this, CUSA should produce double digit teams with at least 6 wins.

In the East, Western Kentucky is nothing like the 2016 Hilltopper team.  They are just starting to play good football, but it may be too late to win the division.  Middle Tennessee’s chances to win the division ended when star quarterback Brent Stockstill went down with an injury.  If he returns in time, the Blue Raiders can still salvage a 6-6 season.  Florida Atlantic and Florida International have shots at taking the division title, and both should become bowl eligible.

The team that the PiRates believe will win the East is Marshall.  Coach Doc Holliday is hands-down the best recruiter in the division and probably about equal with UTSA’s Frank Wilson for tops in the league.  Holliday could be on the radar of bigger schools if the Mountaineers take the conference title this year.

The West race is just as interesting.  North Texas and Louisiana Tech are the top two contenders, and the two teams play in Ruston on November 4.  We give LT the edge due to the home field advantage.

We have to mention possibly the most incredible feat of all, one that is going virtually unnoticed outside of the league.  UAB, a team that did not play for the past two years, returned to FBS football.  This was akin to SMU’s death penalty.  Nobody expected the Blazers to compete for bowl eligibility in their return to college football, with a 3-9 season considered the ceiling.  UAB not only figures to become bowl eligible, they are still in contention for the West Division title.  Coach Bill Clark needs to receive some National Coach of the Year votes for doing the almost impossible.  This is like a pro sports team expansion franchise making the playoffs in their first season.  Did you hear that Las Vegas Golden Knights fans?

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 10

Result: With no real shot at the NY6 bowl, CUSA will have to make do with its six bowl tie-ins.  However, we show 10 bowl eligible teams.  And, thanks to the fact that we show more than four bowl bids up for grabs that will need at-large teams, we believe all 10 bowl eligible teams will find spots.  It is also very possible that two CUSA teams will have to face each other in a bowl game.

Independents

With Notre Dame included in the ACC bowl picture, this really only leaves Army in this discussion, since BYU and UMass will finish on the wrong side of .500.  This is rather cut and dry.  Army needs a 6-6 record to automatically earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl, one of the bowls that will most likely need to find an at-large opponent, most likely from CUSA.

Mid-American Conference

There is still a chance for Toledo to ascend to the top of the Group of 5 hierarchy and earn a NY6 bowl bid.  The Rockets only loss was at undefeated Miami of Florida, and should Jason Candles’ team win out, and USF and UCF both lose, then Toledo could sneak in at the end and grab a Peach Bowl spot.  If this happens, the MAC will still have enough bowl eligible teams left to satisfy its bowl obligations, but the more likely scenario is that Toledo will have to settle for a regular MAC bowl, and the league will have one extra team ready to grab an at-large bid.  The MAC has a secondary bowl agreement with the Quick Lane Bowl, and we project this bowl to need an at-large entry, so everything should work out for the MAC to get six bowl bids instead of 5.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: Either Buffalo or Central Michigan figures to get to 6-6, and whichever team does will be rewarded with a trip to Detroit during the holidays.

Mountain West Conference

Boise State picked a fine time to look like the Broncos teams of 2006  and 2009.  Their pasting of San Diego State put this league behind the AAC and possibly the MAC in the race for the one NY6 Bowl for Group of 5 leagues.  Boise State has two losses, both to current one-loss teams, and that might be enough to limit the league to its regular five bids.

Because the West Division figures to have just two bowl eligible teams (San Diego State and Fresno State), the Mountain Division will need to supply three bowl eligible teams from among the parity in the division.  At this time, Air Force, Utah State and New Mexico have tough roads to get to 6-6, but Colorado State and Wyoming should join Boise State with enough wins.  In fact, this is still a three-team race for the division flag, and at the moment, we project Wyoming to win.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 5

Result: It will be interesting to see how the league will send its teams to the bowls this year, especially if Boise State and San Diego State both miss out on the title.  While the New Mexico and Hawaii Bowls are just fine with always inviting the home team, the Idaho Potato Bowl has been wont to invite somebody other than the Broncos to the field of blue.  We do not project New Mexico or Hawaii to become bowl eligible, so it should be quite interesting indeed to see where each league team goes after the champion gets the automatic bid to the Las Vegas Bowl.

Pac-12 Conference

This league took the biggest hit of all this past weekend when Washington and Washington State bowed out of the playoff race.  USC might still hold a slim chance of making it into the playoffs by winning out, which would include victories over Notre Dame in South Bend, Arizona State in Tempe, and Colorado in Boulder, plus the Conference Championship Game, but we do not forecast the Trojans to win out or even win the Pac-12 Championship.

With the recent turn of events, it could be that Stanford now holds the key to the Pac-12 bowl scramble.  The Cardinal lost at USC and at San Diego State, but since then, David Shaw’s squad looks the most complete.  With a home finale against Notre Dame, the possible Pac-12 champion could be 10-3, but even at 11-2, we do not see a way that Stanford (or any other Pac-12 team could get in the playoff).

The two Arizona schools had coaches on very hot seats before this past weekend, but Arizona State’s smashing of Washington, and Arizona’s trouncing of UCLA most likely gave Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez stays of execution if not outright commutations.

UCLA looks like the team hurting the most, and for Jim Mora, Jr., the bell might soon toll for him.  Chip Kelly might be the right person for this job.  Forget the eastern schools with openings; if UCLA offers him this job, Kelly will take it before he takes jobs like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Nebraska, or possibly Auburn if there is a move there.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: It is our belief that with no playoff teams, the league will get two teams in the NY6 bowl block.  The champion will get an automatic berth, and we believe that if Stanford wins out in the league, then either USC or Washington will get a bid to the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.

For now, we have both UCLA and Colorado just missing out on bowl eligibility, while we move California and the two Arizona teams into bowl eligibility.  There will be one extra team available to take an at-large bowl bid back in the east.  Arizona, you look like the perfect team to spend the holiday season in some rural Southern town.

Southeastern Conference 

There will be a mini-crisis or two coming forth from the SEC race this season.  First, and most obvious, it looks like there is more than a decent chance that both Alabama and Georgia could run the table and square off in the SEC Championship games sporting identical 12-0 records, with Alabama number one and Georgia number two.  We then expect a close game with the loser remaining in the top four, thus giving the SEC two teams in the playoffs.  Since the playoffs began, this has not happened.

The other mini-crisis involves the fact that this league now looks to be short in its bowl eligibility needs.  Missouri and Arkansas are headed to losing records, which will open at least one coaching job if not two.  Ole Miss is ineligible for bowl consideration, and both Tennessee and Vanderbilt appear to be headed to a season finale where both teams could be 5-6, so the loser will be out of the bowl picture.  Throw in the distinct possibility now that Florida could very well fall to 5-6 (had a game cancelled due to Hurricane Irma) and also miss out on a bowl.  That brings the number of bowl-ineligible SEC teams to  five, leaving 9 bowl-eligible teams.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Start with two teams making the playoffs.  This will mean that the Orange Bowl will choose to go elsewhere with their opponent to the ACC champion.  It will leave two bowls without an SEC representative, the Birmingham and the Independence.  Unfortunately for the Birmingham Bowl, it looks like it might need two at-large teams to face off at Legion Field on December 23.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N.  Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Wyoming Washington St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC UTSA Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Louisiana Tech
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Southern Miss.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Marshall Toledo
Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Boise St.
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 [Arizona] [Fla. Atlantic]
A.  Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
$ General MAC SBC Akron Appy St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Memphis San Diego St.
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Arizona
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Florida St. Iowa
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Miss. State
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Louisville
Camp.Wrld. ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Oklahoma
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Utah
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Syracuse California
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Notre Dame Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Tennessee
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Stanford
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large N.C.  St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma St.
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

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