The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Toledo -29.0 -26.8 -29.3
Georgia St. South Alabama -0.7 -3.5 -1.1
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.3 1.6
Oregon St. Stanford -25.0 -23.9 -25.8
Boston College Florida St. -11.7 -10.5 -10.5
Memphis Tulane 12.3 11.5 11.9
SMU Tulsa 4.6 4.9 5.2
Purdue Nebraska 5.4 4.3 7.0
Kentucky Tennessee 6.4 6.9 7.7
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.8 8.6 9.2
Akron Buffalo 4.2 4.3 2.7
South Florida Houston 13.5 12.7 14.7
Wake Forest Louisville -3.4 -3.8 -3.6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) -19.1 -17.9 -19.6
Michigan Rutgers 20.0 20.2 19.5
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13.2 14.2 14.3
Massachusetts Appalachian St. -4.6 -3.5 -4.3
Pittsburgh Virginia 6.2 6.9 5.1
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.0 13.8 14.7
Connecticut Missouri -9.8 -5.3 -8.6
West Virginia Oklahoma St. -11.3 -9.7 -12.0
Maryland Indiana -0.9 0.4 -1.6
Virginia Tech Duke 18.5 18.7 20.2
Illinois Wisconsin -30.8 -26.5 -30.8
Coastal Carolina Texas St. 3.9 2.4 6.4
Deleted Game 0 0 0
Kansas Kansas St. -29.6 -26.4 -30.5
Iowa Minnesota 9.5 8.5 10.0
Wyoming New Mexico 7.2 6.1 5.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -3.1 -6.4 -4.3
BYU San Jose St. 15.0 14.8 15.1
UTEP UTSA -18.4 -17.3 -19.5
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe 1.8 2.5 3.3
Colorado St. Air Force 15.8 14.0 15.6
Southern Miss. UAB 17.4 15.2 15.8
Colorado California 3.9 4.7 3.2
Arizona St. USC -5.0 -5.3 -4.7
Rice Louisiana Tech -10.8 -11.4 -11.3
Oregon Utah 5.3 1.8 3.9
Notre Dame N. Carolina St. 5.7 4.9 6.3
Washington UCLA 23.7 21.8 24.7
Troy Georgia Southern 23.8 22.5 24.0
Northwestern Michigan St. 10.4 7.1 9.5
Deleted Game 0 0 0
North Texas Old Dominion 3.4 2.7 3.9
Baylor Texas -12.9 -11.7 -13.7
Iowa St. TCU -6.6 -4.1 -6.1
Florida (n) Georgia -12.3 -13.6 -13.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 0.6 -2.3 0.1
Arizona Washington St. -10.0 -8.7 -10.7
Oklahoma Texas Tech 20.3 19.3 21.5
Ole Miss Arkansas 6.4 5.5 5.6
Ohio St. Penn St. 9.0 8.4 7.8
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 1.4 -1.5 0.5
Utah St. Boise St. -6.4 -5.5 -6.4
Fresno St. UNLV 16.4 12.9 17.4
Hawaii San Diego St. -7.1 -6.2 -8.0
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Florida Austin Peay 41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Penn St.
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Notre Dame
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Central Florida
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Michigan St.
15 Stanford
16 Virginia Tech
17 North Carolina St.
18 Washington St.
19 USC
20 Auburn
21 South Florida
22 Michigan
23 Texas A&M
24 Mississippi St.
25 LSU
26 Iowa St.
27 Memphis
28 Georgia Tech
29 Toledo
30 West Virginia
31 Iowa
32 Boise St.
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona St.
35 Navy
36 Louisville
37 Fresno St.
38 San Diego St.
39 Arizona
40 Florida St.
41 Wake Forest
42 Texas
43 Northwestern
44 UCLA
45 Florida
46 Boston College
47 Texas Tech
48 Marshall
49 Colorado St.
50 Kentucky
51 SMU
52 Syracuse
53 Oregon
54 Northern Illinois
55 Indiana
56 California
57 Utah
58 Purdue
59 Virginia
60 Western Michigan
61 Houston
62 Troy
63 Minnesota
64 Maryland
65 Appalachian St.
66 Kansas St.
67 Army
68 Florida Atlantic
69 Duke
70 Pittsburgh
71 Southern Miss.
72 Nebraska
73 Colorado
74 Tennessee
75 Ohio
76 Ole Miss
77 Arkansas St.
78 Vanderbilt
79 Tulane
80 Akron
81 Arkansas
82 Air Force
83 Rutgers
84 Wyoming
85 North Texas
86 Utah St.
87 UTSA
88 New Mexico
89 Louisiana Tech
90 Florida Int’l.
91 Western Kentucky
92 Missouri
93 Tulsa
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Central Michigan
96 Cincinnati
97 Temple
98 North Carolina
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico St.
101 Miami (O)
102 Georgia St.
103 Middle Tennessee
104 South Alabama
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 UL-Monroe
109 UAB
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 UNLV
113 Hawaii
114 Oregon St.
115 BYU
116 UL-Lafayette
117 Old Dominion
118 Kent St.
119 Idaho
120 Bowling Green
121 Massachusetts
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Charlotte
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Georgia Southern
130 Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
3 Penn St. 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
4 Georgia 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
5 Washington 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
6 Clemson 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
7 Auburn 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
8 Oklahoma St. 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
9 Virginia Tech 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
10 Oklahoma 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
11 Miami 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
12 Notre Dame 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
13 Wisconsin 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
14 Stanford 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
15 T C U 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
16 Florida St. 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
17 N. Carolina St. 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
18 Washington St. 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
19 U S C 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
20 L S U 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
21 Georgia Tech 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
22 Texas 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
24 Florida 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
25 Louisville 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
26 Michigan 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
27 Kansas St. 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
29 Iowa State 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
30 Mississippi St. 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
31 Syracuse 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
32 Northwestern 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
33 West Virginia 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
34 Iowa 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
35 Texas A&M 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
36 Arizona St. 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
37 S. Carolina 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
38 Kentucky 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
39 Wake Forest 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
40 U C L A 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
41 Boston College 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
42 Duke 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
43 Colo. State 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
44 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
45 Oregon 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
46 Indiana 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
47 Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
48 Michigan St. 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
49 Memphis 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
50 Utah 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
51 Arizona 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
52 California 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
53 Texas Tech 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
54 Minnesota 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
55 Ole Miss 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
56 Purdue 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
59 Toledo 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
60 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
61 Virginia 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
62 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
63 Houston 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
64 Maryland 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
65 Arkansas 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
66 Nebraska 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
67 Baylor 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
68 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
69 N. Carolina 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
70 SMU 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
71 San Diego St. 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
72 Army 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
73 Missouri 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
74 Fresno St. 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
75 Tulsa 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Eastern Michigan 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
77 Florida Atlantic 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
78 Tulane 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
79 Troy 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
80 Ohio U 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
82 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
83 Marshall 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
84 Appalachian St. 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
85 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
86 Northern Illinois 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
87 Utah St. 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
88 U T S A 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
89 Air Force 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
90 W. Kentucky 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
91 Temple 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
92 Oregon St. 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
93 Central Michigan 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
94 New Mexico 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
95 Miami (O) 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
96 Louisiana Tech 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
97 BYU 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
98 Massachusetts 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
99 Cincinnati 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
100 Illinois 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
101 N. Mexico St. 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
103 Akron 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
104 S. Alabama 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
105 Nevada 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
106 Connecticut 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
107 Buffalo 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
108 Hawaii 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
109 U N L V 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
110 Middle Tennessee 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
111 Florida Int’l. 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
112 N. Texas 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
113 Old Dominion 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
114 Georgia St. 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
115 East Carolina 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
116 UL-Lafayette 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
117 Kansas 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
118 UL-Monroe 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
119 Idaho 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
120 Bowling Green 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
121 Kent St. 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
122 San Jose St. 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
123 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
124 Georgia Southern 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
125 UAB 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
126 U T E P 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
129 Ball St. 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
130 Texas St. 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 6-0 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
South Florida 4-0 7-0 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
Connecticut 2-3 3-4 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 3-1 6-1 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
Houston 2-2 4-3 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
SMU 2-1 5-2 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
Tulsa 1-3 2-6 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
Florida St. 2-3 2-4 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
Louisville 2-3 5-3 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
Wake Forest 1-3 4-3 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
Boston College 2-3 4-4 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 2-1 6-1 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 4-0 6-0 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
Duke 1-4 4-4 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
Pittsburgh 1-3 3-5 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
Virginia 2-1 5-2 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
N. Carolina 0-5 1-7 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 3-1 6-1 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
T C U 4-0 7-0 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
Texas 2-2 3-4 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
Kansas St. 1-3 3-4 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
Iowa State 3-1 5-2 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
West Virginia 3-1 5-2 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
Texas Tech 1-3 4-3 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
Baylor 0-4 0-7 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
Kansas 0-4 1-6 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
Penn St. 4-0 7-0 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
Michigan 2-2 5-2 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
Indiana 0-4 3-4 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
Michigan St. 4-0 6-1 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
Maryland 1-3 3-4 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
Rutgers 2-2 3-4 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-0 7-0 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
Northwestern 2-2 4-3 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
Iowa 1-3 4-3 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
Minnesota 1-3 4-3 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
Purdue 1-3 3-4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
Illinois 0-4 2-5 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 3-0 4-3 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
Marshall 3-0 6-1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
W. Kentucky 3-1 5-2 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
Old Dominion 0-3 2-5 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 1-2 4-2 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
Louisiana Tech 1-2 3-4 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
Southern Miss. 3-1 5-2 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
N. Texas 3-1 4-3 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
Rice 1-2 1-6 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
U T E P 0-3 0-7 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
Army   6-2 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
BYU   1-7 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
Massachusetts   1-6 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
             
Indep. Averages     99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
Akron 3-1 4-4 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-1 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 2-5 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
Ball St. 0-3 2-5 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 4-0 6-2 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
Boise St. 3-0 5-2 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
Wyoming 2-1 4-3 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
Utah St. 2-2 4-4 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
Air Force 2-2 3-4 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
New Mexico 1-3 3-4 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-2 6-2 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
Fresno St. 4-0 5-2 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
U N L V 1-3 2-5 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
Stanford 4-1 5-2 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
Oregon 1-4 4-4 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
California 1-4 4-4 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-2 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
Arizona St. 3-1 4-3 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
U C L A 2-2 4-3 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
Colorado 1-4 4-4 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
Utah 1-3 4-3 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
Arizona 3-1 5-2 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
Florida 3-2 3-3 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
Kentucky 2-2 5-2 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
Missouri 0-4 2-5 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
L S U 3-1 6-2 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
Mississippi St. 2-2 5-2 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
Arkansas 0-4 2-5 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 2-1 5-2 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-2 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
S. Alabama 2-1 3-4 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
Georgia St. 2-1 3-3 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
UL-Monroe 3-2 3-4 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
Idaho 1-2 2-5 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-6 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
Coastal Carolina 0-4 1-6 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC North Texas South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Houston Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Arizona
New Mexico CUSA MWC La. Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC N. Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Colorado] Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Fla. Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 SMU [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Arkansas St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Navy San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Virginia [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Iowa USC
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [Western Ky.] Boston Coll.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech West Virginia
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Georgia St.
Cotton At-large At-large TCU Arizona St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1

 

 

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October 16, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 19-21, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:52 am

This week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Louisiana-Lafayette 9.0 8.7 10.4
Houston Memphis 0.4 0.6 0.1
Old Dominion Western Kentucky -8.3 -5.2 -9.3
Middle Tennessee Marshall -1.8 -2.2 -3.0
Nevada Air Force -2.8 -1.4 -1.4
New Mexico Colorado St. -12.0 -11.0 -11.5
Army Temple 8.3 7.8 9.1
Wisconsin Maryland 24.0 18.8 22.7
Texas Tech Iowa St. 0.7 -0.1 -1.0
Toledo Akron 15.0 12.3 15.4
Missouri Idaho 16.4 12.4 14.6
Northwestern Iowa 4.2 2.4 4.6
Connecticut Tulsa -11.3 -8.5 -10.9
Florida St. Louisville 13.9 13.3 13.1
Rutgers Purdue -6.2 -5.9 -7.4
Duke Pittsburgh 7.3 5.9 6.8
Virginia Boston College 6.3 5.6 7.0
Georgia St. Troy -5.0 -5.9 -4.3
Eastern Michigan Western Michigan -0.7 0.0 -1.6
Ohio U Kent St. 14.1 14.2 14.5
Bowling Green Northern Illinois -5.6 -4.4 -5.4
Miami (O) Buffalo 7.3 6.8 6.2
Ball St. Central Michigan -12.4 -11.0 -11.7
Minnesota Illinois 19.7 19.1 20.7
Virginia Tech North Carolina 18.4 18.7 20.0
Michigan St. Indiana 1.5 3.5 1.6
Alabama Tennessee 37.4 34.7 38.2
Appalachian St. Coastal Carolina 30.8 27.5 29.5
Navy Central Florida -11.4 -12.6 -12.5
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 13.7 13.3 13.9
Massachusetts Georgia Southern 10.5 8.3 10.9
Utah Arizona St. 4.4 7.0 4.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma -6.6 -5.6 -7.0
TCU Kansas 42.5 37.0 44.1
Texas Oklahoma St. -7.9 -6.1 -8.5
UCLA Oregon 0.1 2.1 0.5
Cincinnati SMU -9.3 -7.2 -8.5
Mississippi St. Kentucky -0.3 1.4 0.6
South Alabama Louisiana-Monroe 8.0 9.8 9.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 8.7 10.0 9.3
UNLV Utah St. -3.1 0.0 -2.4
Charlotte UAB 1.7 0.5 -0.2
Tulane South Florida -14.1 -12.5 -14.8
UTSA Rice 19.8 20.7 21.2
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 3.6 4.0 4.2
East Carolina BYU -9.0 -6.7 -9.0
Ole Miss LSU -6.3 -6.1 -8.6
Arkansas Auburn -18.6 -17.2 -19.1
Georgia Tech Wake Forest 11.7 10.6 10.5
Penn St. Michigan 18.2 15.9 19.9
Notre Dame USC 2.3 1.5 3.2
Baylor West Virginia -8.3 -7.0 -8.7
California Arizona 3.9 2.7 3.3
Boise St. Wyoming 11.3 10.9 12.4
San Diego St. Fresno St. 9.4 11.0 9.7
Washington St. Colorado 10.7 9.8 12.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings–Ranks the teams based on what they have done to date.  This rating is better to gauge what the teams have done so far rather than how they might fare going forward.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.7
2 Penn St. 130.8
3 Georgia 130.6
4 TCU 129.3
5 Clemson 128.7
6 Ohio St. 128.5
7 Wisconsin 127.9
8 Miami (Fla) 127.0
9 Notre Dame 126.7
10 USC 126.4
11 Central Florida 126.2
12 Washington 125.8
13 Oklahoma St. 125.1
14 Oklahoma 124.9
15 Stanford 124.2
16 Michigan St. 123.7
17 Michigan 123.3
18 North Carolina St. 123.0
19 Washington St. 122.2
20 Virginia Tech 121.6
21 South Florida 121.5
22 Texas A&M 121.2
23 Auburn 120.8
24 Iowa 119.9
25 San Diego St. 119.4
26 Mississippi St. 118.9
27 Florida St. 118.8
28 Memphis 118.6
29 Wake Forest 117.3
30 Texas Tech 116.8
31 West Virginia 116.4
32 LSU 116.3
33 Kentucky 116.1
34 Boise St. 115.9
35 Navy 115.2
36 South Carolina 114.7
37 Virginia 113.8
38 Toledo 113.1
39 Iowa St. 112.0
40 Utah 110.9
41 Oregon 110.5
42 California 110.1
43 Texas 110.0
44 Arizona St. 109.8
45 Georgia Tech 109.5
46 Florida 109.2
47 Louisville 108.7
48 Arizona 108.5
49 Purdue 107.7
50 Northwestern 107.4
51 Houston 106.9
52 Duke 106.3
53 Colorado St. 105.8
54 Indiana 104.6
55 Syracuse 103.9
56 UCLA 103.4
57 Marshall 103.2
58 Western Michigan 103.1
59 Fresno St. 103.0
60 Colorado 102.8
61 Minnesota 102.1
62 SMU 101.8
63 Maryland 101.6
64 Northern Illinois 101.5
65 Boston College 100.9
66 Appalachian St. 100.4
67 Troy 100.0
68 Kansas St. 99.7
69 Army 98.6
70 Ole Miss 97.2
71 North Texas 97.1
72 Tennessee 96.7
73 Nebraska 96.4
74 Louisiana Tech 96.3
75 Vanderbilt 95.6
76 Southern Miss. 95.2
77 Florida Atlantic 95.0
78 Tulane 94.8
79 Akron 94.6
80 Wyoming 94.5
81 Arkansas 92.9
82 Ohio 92.8
83 Western Kentucky 92.6
84 Air Force 92.0
85 Arkansas St. 91.8
86 Tulsa 91.7
87 Pittsburgh 91.3
88 New Mexico 91.1
89 UTSA 90.7
90 Temple 90.2
91 Utah St. 89.9
92 North Carolina 89.5
93 Buffalo 89.3
94 Florida Int’l. 88.7
95 UAB 88.1
96 Middle Tennessee 87.0
97 Cincinnati 85.7
98 Rutgers 85.1
99 New Mexico St. 84.2
100 Eastern Michigan 83.9
101 UL-Monroe 83.6
102 Georgia St. 83.4
103 UL-Lafayette 81.9
104 Illinois 81.2
105 UNLV 81.0
106 Central Michigan 80.7
107 Miami (O) 80.5
108 Baylor 80.4
109 Missouri 80.4
110 South Alabama 80.3
111 Oregon St. 79.9
112 Hawaii 79.7
113 BYU 79.6
114 Connecticut 79.5
115 Idaho 79.4
116 Nevada 78.9
117 Kent St. 78.7
118 Old Dominion 78.1
119 East Carolina 77.8
120 Bowling Green 77.5
121 Ball St. 77.0
122 Kansas 76.2
123 Rice 75.7
124 Georgia Southern 75.3
125 Massachusetts 75.1
126 Coastal Carolina 74.6
127 San Jose St. 74.2
128 UTEP 73.5
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 71.9

Predictive Ratings–This rating is a forward-looking rating trying to predict the outcome of future games.  Unlike other predictive ratings, ours are geared toward only each teams’ next game, because we adjust our ratings based on many factors that cannot be reflected just from the score of the games.  A team that is predicted to win by 14 points that wins by exactly 14 points might be expected to retain an identical rating the following week, but we adjust for things like depth, how the score became a 14-point victory, how the teams’ past opponents fared during the week (more weight given to recent games than early games), etc.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
3 Penn St. 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
4 Washington 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
5 Clemson 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
6 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
7 Oklahoma St. 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
8 Auburn 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
9 Florida St. 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
10 Oklahoma 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
11 Miami 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
12 Wisconsin 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
13 Stanford 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
14 T C U 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
15 U S C 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
17 N. Carolina St. 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
18 Notre Dame 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
19 Washington St. 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
20 Georgia Tech 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
21 L S U 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
22 Texas 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
23 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
24 Michigan 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
25 Florida 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
26 South Florida 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
27 Kansas St. 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
28 Louisville 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
29 Northwestern 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
30 Kentucky 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
31 West Virginia 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
32 Syracuse 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
33 Iowa 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
34 Iowa State 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
35 Texas A&M 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
36 Mississippi St. 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
37 S. Carolina 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
38 Utah 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
39 Colorado 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
40 Duke 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
41 Wake Forest 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
42 Oregon 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
43 Texas Tech 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
44 Colo. State 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
45 Indiana 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
46 Virginia 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
47 Arizona St. 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
48 Minnesota 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
49 U C L A 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
50 California 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
51 Michigan St. 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
52 Ole Miss 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
53 Arizona 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
54 Memphis 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
55 Purdue 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
56 Pittsburgh 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
59 Arkansas 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
60 N. Carolina 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
61 Boston College 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
63 Houston 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
64 Maryland 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
65 Navy 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
66 San Diego St. 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
67 Nebraska 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
69 Baylor 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
70 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
71 SMU 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
72 Army 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
73 Tulsa 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
75 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
76 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
77 Tulane 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
78 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
79 Rutgers 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
80 Fresno St. 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
81 U T S A 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
82 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
83 W. Kentucky 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
84 Florida Atlantic 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
85 Oregon St. 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
86 Marshall 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
87 Air Force 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
88 Temple 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
89 BYU 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
90 Arkansas St. 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
91 Utah St. 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
93 New Mexico 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
95 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
96 Louisiana Tech 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
97 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
98 Akron 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
99 N. Mexico St. 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
100 Illinois 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
101 Cincinnati 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
102 Southern Miss. 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
103 Middle Tennessee 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
104 Nevada 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
105 S. Alabama 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
106 U N L V 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
107 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
108 N. Texas 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
109 Hawaii 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
110 Georgia St. 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
111 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
112 Massachusetts 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
113 Connecticut 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
114 Idaho 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
115 Florida Int’l. 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
116 Old Dominion 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
117 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
118 Kansas 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
119 UL-Monroe 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
120 East Carolina 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 UAB 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
127 Charlotte 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 U T E P 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
129 Texas St. 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
130 Coastal Carolina 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 3-0 5-0 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
South Florida 3-0 6-0 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
Temple 1-3 3-4 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
Cincinnati 0-3 2-5 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
Connecticut 1-3 2-4 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
East Carolina 1-3 1-6 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-1 5-1 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
Houston 2-1 4-2 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
Navy 3-1 5-1 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-2 2-5 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
Tulane 1-1 3-3 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
             
AAC Averages     97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
Florida St. 2-2 2-3 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
Louisville 1-3 4-3 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
Syracuse 2-1 4-3 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
Boston College 1-3 3-4 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 3-0 5-0 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
Duke 1-3 4-3 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
Virginia 2-0 5-1 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
Pittsburgh 0-3 2-5 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
N. Carolina 0-4 1-6 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 2-1 5-1 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
Oklahoma 2-1 5-1 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
T C U 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
Texas 2-1 3-3 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
Kansas St. 1-2 3-3 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
West Virginia 2-1 4-2 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
Iowa State 2-1 4-2 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
Texas Tech 1-2 4-2 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
Baylor 0-3 0-6 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
Kansas 0-3 1-5 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
             
Big 12 Averages     109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
Michigan 2-1 5-1 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
Indiana 0-3 3-3 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
Michigan St. 3-0 5-1 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
Maryland 1-2 3-3 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
Rutgers 1-2 2-4 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 3-0 6-0 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
Northwestern 1-2 3-3 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
Iowa 1-2 4-2 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
Minnesota 0-3 3-3 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
Purdue 1-2 3-3 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
Illinois 0-3 2-4 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 2-1 4-2 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
Marshall 2-0 5-1 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
Middle Tennessee 1-2 3-4 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
Old Dominion 0-2 2-4 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
Charlotte 0-3 0-7 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-2 3-2 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
Southern Miss. 2-1 4-2 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
N. Texas 3-0 4-2 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
Rice 1-1 1-5 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
U T E P 0-3 0-7 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
Army   5-2 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
BYU   1-6 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
             
Indep. Averages     98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 2-1 5-2 92.0 93.3 92.8 92.7
Miami (O) 1-2 2-5 88.2 90.3 89.3 89.3
Akron 3-0 4-3 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
Buffalo 1-2 3-4 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Bowling Green 1-2 1-6 81.5 82.5 82.1 82.0
Kent St. 1-2 2-5 80.3 81.7 80.8 80.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 2-0 5-1 100.6 100.5 101.9 101.0
Western Michigan 2-1 4-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-4 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 2-0 4-2 90.9 90.7 91.6 91.0
Central Michigan 1-2 3-4 87.7 88.6 88.1 88.1
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.2 76.4 75.4 75.3
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 3-0 5-2 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
Boise St. 2-0 4-2 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
Wyoming 2-0 4-2 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
Air Force 1-2 2-4 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
Utah St. 1-2 3-4 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-2 3-3 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-1 6-1 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
Fresno St. 3-0 4-2 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
Nevada 1-2 1-6 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
U N L V 1-2 2-4 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
Stanford 4-1 5-2 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
Oregon 1-3 4-3 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
California 1-3 4-3 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-1 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
Utah 1-2 4-2 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
Colorado 1-3 4-3 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
Arizona St. 2-1 3-3 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
U C L A 1-2 3-3 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
Arizona 2-1 4-2 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
Florida 3-2 3-3 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
Kentucky 2-1 5-1 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
Tennessee 0-3 3-3 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
Missouri 0-4 1-5 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-0 7-0 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
Auburn 3-1 5-2 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
L S U 2-1 5-2 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
Mississippi St. 1-2 4-2 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
Ole Miss 1-2 3-3 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
Arkansas 0-3 2-4 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 3-0 4-2 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
Troy 1-1 4-2 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
Arkansas St. 2-0 3-2 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
S. Alabama 1-1 2-4 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
Georgia St. 2-0 3-2 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-3 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
Idaho 1-2 2-4 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
UL-Monroe 3-1 3-3 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-5 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
Coastal Carolina 0-3 1-5 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
3 BIG 12 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
4 PAC-12 110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
7 AAC 97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
8 MWC 92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
9 MAC 88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

Bowl Projections

You probably see bowl projections from many sites, and from what we have learned, many of them just throw teams into the slots based on how they think in their head without really looking at the remaining schedules and then plotting how the committees will allot teams.

The PiRates project the won-loss records of all 130 teams every week, and then look at the bowls as the committees and leagues would look at them.  Thus, ours are always going to be a bit unique and will not follow in lockstep with the big sites where they really do not have a lot of time to devote to this task.  This feature actually takes up more time than anything else we do other than our college basketball March Madness submissions.

Thus, rather than just state the bowl projections this week, how about we explain our selections.  Also, we apologize for all the abbreviations, but apparently many of you that use your phone to access our site cannot read this feature unless we do so.  Tabular data can be difficult at times to display in an aesthetically brilliant manner.

American Athletic Conference

Central Florida and South Florida could be heading to an incredible final regular season game, where the winner not only takes the East Division title, but they enter AAC Championship play undefeated as the odds-on favorite to snag the New Year’s 6 Bowl invitation.  If by some strange possibility that there are less than three one-loss or undefeated Power 5 conference teams, then an undefeated UCF or USF might have an outside shot at making the playoffs.

In the West, Houston, Memphis, and Navy look to vie for the division flag, with SMU also an outside possibility.  We like the Cougars to cop that flag, mostly because they host Memphis this week and should bounce back with their best game of the month.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: With the AAC Champion predicted to make the NY6 bowl, this league needs 8 bowl eligible teams to fill its contracts, so having just 6 bowl eligible teams will open up two bowls (Birmingham & Gasparilla) to at-large entries.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson’s loss to Syracuse doesn’t end the Tigers’ shot at defending their national title, as this loss was about on par with last year’s loss to Pittsburgh.  However, in order to get there, CU must win out, and that includes having to beat NC State in Raleigh and then the Coastal Division champion in the ACC Championship Game.  At this point, our belief is that it will not happen for the Tigers this season.

Miami has survived close games against Florida State and Georgia Tech the last two weeks.  The Hurricanes have to fend off Virginia Tech and the up and coming Virginia Cavaliers, and we think Mark Richt’s team will be able to make it to the ACC Championship Game.

For the time being, our belief is that North Carolina State will hold off Clemson and then take out Miami to win the ACC Championship, but we also believe the Wolf Pack will lose one conference game, leaving them with a record of 11-2, which will keep them out of the playoffs.

Notre Dame figures in the ACC Bowl Tie-ins, as the Irish can trump any ACC team that has just one more victory than they do.  In other words, if Virginia goes 10-2, and Notre Dame goes 9-3, the Irish can jump over the Cavs in the bowl pecking order.

As of today, we have Notre Dame pegged for a 10-2 finish, which will not give them a good enough slate to make the playoffs, but it will put them in the NY6 Bowl group.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 11 (which includes Notre Dame)

Result: Under this scenario, NC State would earn the Orange Bowl bid as the ACC Champion.  Notre Dame and one other team (Miami is our choice this week) would receive NY6 Bowls, while Clemson would fall to the Citrus Bowl.  Under this scenario, the ACC-Notre Dame alliance would actually need 12 bowl eligible teams, while they would have just 11 bowl eligible teams.  This would open up the Quick Lane Bowl for an at-large team.

Big 12

This is going to be highly ironic for this league.  The Big 12 kept losing out in the playoff picture due to a lack of having a conference championship game like the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.  This year, there will be a Big 12 Championship Game, but unlike the others, it will pit the number one versus the number two team in the standings.  Since the Big 12 teams all play each other, it guarantees a rematch for the title game.  There is just enough parity in this league this year that the number one team can sweep the number two team or vice versa.  Thus, the conference championship game could be the one factor that keeps the Big 12 out of the playoffs.  Yes, ironic indeed.

TCU is the lone unbeaten left in the league, but the Horned Frogs would have to win at Oklahoma and then beat one of the Oklahoma teams a second time in order to make the playoffs.  There are scenarios were TCU could lose to Oklahoma in the regular season and then win the Big 12 Championship Game and squeak into the playoffs, but for now, we believe there might be another scenario.  We currently project Oklahoma State to win out, including beating Oklahoma and then taking TCU in the rematch for the conference title.  At 12-1, we show Oklahoma State to be the #4 team entering the playoffs.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 7

Result: With Oklahoma State going to the Playoffs, and with the possibility that both Oklahoma and TCU could have two losses at the end of the season, we project no other conference team to receive a bid to a NY6 bowl.  With 7 projected bowl eligible teams, the league would have exactly the number needed to furnish its bowl obligations.

We came up with 7 bowl eligible teams, because we believe that two teams from among Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech will get to 6 wins, while one finishes 5-7.  For now, we believe there will be exactly 78 bowl eligible teams to fill the 78 slots, so no 5-7 teams will be needed to fill spots.

Big Ten

This is perhaps the most interesting league this year.  Ohio State lost early at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes were dismissed as a potential title-contender.  Remember that Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech the year they won the national championship in the very first playoff season.  Since losing at home to the Sooners, Urban Meyer’s team has done exactly what his Florida team did in 2008 after losing at home to Ole Miss.

Penn State is the darling team in this league at the present time, and the Nittany Lions should handle Michigan this week.  However, James Franklin’s squad has road dates against Michigan State and Ohio State lurking.  We believe Penn State can win in East Lansing, but Ohio State will be almost impossible to beat in Columbus.  The Buckeyes have been looking forward to getting revenge over last year’s upset loss in Happy Valley, and we believe Ohio State will win convincingly and then run the table.

The end of that table could be the demise of an undefeated season for Wisconsin, much like Iowa falling to Penn State in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.  If this happens, then both Penn State and Wisconsin will be one loss teams that both lost to a playoff team.  That, along with the huge fan bases, would be enough to propel both one-loss teams into NY6 bowls.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Putting Ohio State into the playoffs, and both Penn State and Wisconsin into NY6 bowls, the Big Ten would need 10 bowl eligible teams, while we project just 9 to make it.  Thus, the Armed Forces Bowl would need to find an at-large replacement.

Conference USA

Up to now, you have seen multiple bowls that will need at-large replacements for conferences that will not supply enough bowl-eligible teams, yet you have not seen us list a league with extra teams available.  CUSA is going to strike it rich this year, as this league should have quite an excess of bowl eligible teams after fulfilling the allotted contracts.

There is no overwhelming favorite in the league, even at the halfway point of the season.  Because of this, CUSA should produce double digit teams with at least 6 wins.

In the East, Western Kentucky is nothing like the 2016 Hilltopper team.  They are just starting to play good football, but it may be too late to win the division.  Middle Tennessee’s chances to win the division ended when star quarterback Brent Stockstill went down with an injury.  If he returns in time, the Blue Raiders can still salvage a 6-6 season.  Florida Atlantic and Florida International have shots at taking the division title, and both should become bowl eligible.

The team that the PiRates believe will win the East is Marshall.  Coach Doc Holliday is hands-down the best recruiter in the division and probably about equal with UTSA’s Frank Wilson for tops in the league.  Holliday could be on the radar of bigger schools if the Mountaineers take the conference title this year.

The West race is just as interesting.  North Texas and Louisiana Tech are the top two contenders, and the two teams play in Ruston on November 4.  We give LT the edge due to the home field advantage.

We have to mention possibly the most incredible feat of all, one that is going virtually unnoticed outside of the league.  UAB, a team that did not play for the past two years, returned to FBS football.  This was akin to SMU’s death penalty.  Nobody expected the Blazers to compete for bowl eligibility in their return to college football, with a 3-9 season considered the ceiling.  UAB not only figures to become bowl eligible, they are still in contention for the West Division title.  Coach Bill Clark needs to receive some National Coach of the Year votes for doing the almost impossible.  This is like a pro sports team expansion franchise making the playoffs in their first season.  Did you hear that Las Vegas Golden Knights fans?

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 10

Result: With no real shot at the NY6 bowl, CUSA will have to make do with its six bowl tie-ins.  However, we show 10 bowl eligible teams.  And, thanks to the fact that we show more than four bowl bids up for grabs that will need at-large teams, we believe all 10 bowl eligible teams will find spots.  It is also very possible that two CUSA teams will have to face each other in a bowl game.

Independents

With Notre Dame included in the ACC bowl picture, this really only leaves Army in this discussion, since BYU and UMass will finish on the wrong side of .500.  This is rather cut and dry.  Army needs a 6-6 record to automatically earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl, one of the bowls that will most likely need to find an at-large opponent, most likely from CUSA.

Mid-American Conference

There is still a chance for Toledo to ascend to the top of the Group of 5 hierarchy and earn a NY6 bowl bid.  The Rockets only loss was at undefeated Miami of Florida, and should Jason Candles’ team win out, and USF and UCF both lose, then Toledo could sneak in at the end and grab a Peach Bowl spot.  If this happens, the MAC will still have enough bowl eligible teams left to satisfy its bowl obligations, but the more likely scenario is that Toledo will have to settle for a regular MAC bowl, and the league will have one extra team ready to grab an at-large bid.  The MAC has a secondary bowl agreement with the Quick Lane Bowl, and we project this bowl to need an at-large entry, so everything should work out for the MAC to get six bowl bids instead of 5.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: Either Buffalo or Central Michigan figures to get to 6-6, and whichever team does will be rewarded with a trip to Detroit during the holidays.

Mountain West Conference

Boise State picked a fine time to look like the Broncos teams of 2006  and 2009.  Their pasting of San Diego State put this league behind the AAC and possibly the MAC in the race for the one NY6 Bowl for Group of 5 leagues.  Boise State has two losses, both to current one-loss teams, and that might be enough to limit the league to its regular five bids.

Because the West Division figures to have just two bowl eligible teams (San Diego State and Fresno State), the Mountain Division will need to supply three bowl eligible teams from among the parity in the division.  At this time, Air Force, Utah State and New Mexico have tough roads to get to 6-6, but Colorado State and Wyoming should join Boise State with enough wins.  In fact, this is still a three-team race for the division flag, and at the moment, we project Wyoming to win.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 5

Result: It will be interesting to see how the league will send its teams to the bowls this year, especially if Boise State and San Diego State both miss out on the title.  While the New Mexico and Hawaii Bowls are just fine with always inviting the home team, the Idaho Potato Bowl has been wont to invite somebody other than the Broncos to the field of blue.  We do not project New Mexico or Hawaii to become bowl eligible, so it should be quite interesting indeed to see where each league team goes after the champion gets the automatic bid to the Las Vegas Bowl.

Pac-12 Conference

This league took the biggest hit of all this past weekend when Washington and Washington State bowed out of the playoff race.  USC might still hold a slim chance of making it into the playoffs by winning out, which would include victories over Notre Dame in South Bend, Arizona State in Tempe, and Colorado in Boulder, plus the Conference Championship Game, but we do not forecast the Trojans to win out or even win the Pac-12 Championship.

With the recent turn of events, it could be that Stanford now holds the key to the Pac-12 bowl scramble.  The Cardinal lost at USC and at San Diego State, but since then, David Shaw’s squad looks the most complete.  With a home finale against Notre Dame, the possible Pac-12 champion could be 10-3, but even at 11-2, we do not see a way that Stanford (or any other Pac-12 team could get in the playoff).

The two Arizona schools had coaches on very hot seats before this past weekend, but Arizona State’s smashing of Washington, and Arizona’s trouncing of UCLA most likely gave Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez stays of execution if not outright commutations.

UCLA looks like the team hurting the most, and for Jim Mora, Jr., the bell might soon toll for him.  Chip Kelly might be the right person for this job.  Forget the eastern schools with openings; if UCLA offers him this job, Kelly will take it before he takes jobs like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Nebraska, or possibly Auburn if there is a move there.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: It is our belief that with no playoff teams, the league will get two teams in the NY6 bowl block.  The champion will get an automatic berth, and we believe that if Stanford wins out in the league, then either USC or Washington will get a bid to the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.

For now, we have both UCLA and Colorado just missing out on bowl eligibility, while we move California and the two Arizona teams into bowl eligibility.  There will be one extra team available to take an at-large bowl bid back in the east.  Arizona, you look like the perfect team to spend the holiday season in some rural Southern town.

Southeastern Conference 

There will be a mini-crisis or two coming forth from the SEC race this season.  First, and most obvious, it looks like there is more than a decent chance that both Alabama and Georgia could run the table and square off in the SEC Championship games sporting identical 12-0 records, with Alabama number one and Georgia number two.  We then expect a close game with the loser remaining in the top four, thus giving the SEC two teams in the playoffs.  Since the playoffs began, this has not happened.

The other mini-crisis involves the fact that this league now looks to be short in its bowl eligibility needs.  Missouri and Arkansas are headed to losing records, which will open at least one coaching job if not two.  Ole Miss is ineligible for bowl consideration, and both Tennessee and Vanderbilt appear to be headed to a season finale where both teams could be 5-6, so the loser will be out of the bowl picture.  Throw in the distinct possibility now that Florida could very well fall to 5-6 (had a game cancelled due to Hurricane Irma) and also miss out on a bowl.  That brings the number of bowl-ineligible SEC teams to  five, leaving 9 bowl-eligible teams.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Start with two teams making the playoffs.  This will mean that the Orange Bowl will choose to go elsewhere with their opponent to the ACC champion.  It will leave two bowls without an SEC representative, the Birmingham and the Independence.  Unfortunately for the Birmingham Bowl, it looks like it might need two at-large teams to face off at Legion Field on December 23.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N.  Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Wyoming Washington St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC UTSA Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Louisiana Tech
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Southern Miss.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Marshall Toledo
Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Boise St.
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 [Arizona] [Fla. Atlantic]
A.  Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
$ General MAC SBC Akron Appy St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Memphis San Diego St.
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Arizona
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Florida St. Iowa
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Miss. State
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Louisville
Camp.Wrld. ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Oklahoma
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Utah
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Syracuse California
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Notre Dame Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Tennessee
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Stanford
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large N.C.  St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma St.
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

August 21, 2016

2016 Big 12 Conference Football Preview

The Big 12 has been teetering on the brink of unplanned obsolescence for the last couple of years. As the only Power 5 Conference without a postseason Conference Championship Game, the league powers have been a little paranoid that other predators from the West Coast, the Deep South, and the Upper Midwest, might pillage them and leave them without a job. The Pac-12 is anxious to change its name to the Pac-16. The SEC and Big Ten realize that it is easier to work with 16 rather than 14 teams. The ACC has 15 in all sports except football, but even in football, Notre Dame plays basically five conference games per year.

What does a league do with just 10 members? It cannot play a conference title game until it has 12. Obviously, the league must expand by two to six teams, or else, their members will be searching for greener futures and high payouts.

In the meantime, the Big 12 continues to provide some of the most exciting football on the planet. The quasi-renegade league provides the alternative to the SEC’s and Big Ten’s blood and guts play, just like the old American Football League of the 1960’s sold itself as the more entertaining league to the NFL. The AFL had all the razzle dazzle stars like Joe Namath, Len Dawson, Daryle Lamonica, John Hadl, Cookie Gilchrist, Lance Alworth, and others, while the NFL was all about bruising fullbacks running between the tackles and halfbacks running power sweeps behind pulling guards.

The Big 12 is the pass-happy league with wide open offenses, blitzing and gambling defenses, and no game secure even if a team has scored over 50 points. Who can forget the day in 2014 when undefeated TCU led undefeated Baylor by 18 points in the fourth quarter and lost 61-58? You could have watched Alabama beat Arkansas 14-13 that day. Michigan beat Penn State 18-13.

2016 promises to be an interesting season in the Southwest. Oklahoma represented the league in the NCAA Playoffs, after two 11-1 teams failed to earn a spot the year before. The Sooners quickly bowed out in a semifinal loss to Clemson, but OU is loaded this season and in contention for the top overall spot.

The Sooners will not receive a free pass to the playoffs this year. Their schedule is tricky with a pre-conference matchups with Houston at NRG Stadium to start the season and Ohio State on September 17. Then following a bye week, OU has a road game with TCU, and the annual Red River Shootout with Texas the following Saturday. If Coach Bob Stoops can guide his squad to a 5-0 start, a 7-0 finish is very likely.

A group of four teams figure to be the main challengers to the Sooners, or in a probable case, a quartet fighting for a Sugar Bowl berth as the league runnerup. Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor figure to be on most pundits’ lists, but the PiRates believe that Coach Charlie Strong will bring the Texas Longhorns back to near the top of the standings this year and even give Oklahoma a run for its money. If he doesn’t, the UT alumni may be advertising for a new coach in 2017.

For the Longhorns, the season kicks off with a Sunday tilt at home against Notre Dame, and a win in the opener could give the burnt orange a shot in the arm. A road game against Oklahoma State precedes the fight with the Sooners at the Texas State Fair the following week, and pulling off back-to-back wins over their rivals to the north is most unlikely. Thus, we believe that Texas can win 10 games and vie for the Sugar Bowl bid, but they cannot win 11 or 12 and contend for a playoff spot.

TCU begins the season ranked ahead of Texas in our ratings and actually within shouting distance of Oklahoma, but the Horned Frogs have to rebuild on offense due to heavy losses, including their star quarterback, running back, and wideout. The defense is still solid, but they may be on the field for too many plays in crucial games. Road games at Baylor and Texas could eliminate any gain made by possibly upsetting Oklahoma ar Amon G. Carter Stadium.

Oklahoma State is flying a little under the radar to begin the season. The Cowboys were 10-0 last year, before losing to Baylor, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss to end the year at 10-3. Their offense could top 42 points per game this year with experience and depth returning, while the defense should be on par with last year’s defense. OSU wins games by outscoring opponents, so scores like 45-31 are frequent happenings, and this team can win double digit games again while giving up 30+ points per game.

Baylor faced a minor rebuilding project heading into this season, but off the field events have wounded the Bears enough to where second half of the season depth issues could cause a minor fold. We do not expect BU to contend for the Big 12 crown, and we would not be shocked if the losses began to mount beginning with a trip to Austin on October 29.

Kansas State, West Virginia, and Texas Tech represent the next wave. In most years, KSU plays one of the softest non-conference slates, guaranteeing themselves of three wins before taking the field, and thus needing just a 3-6 conference mark to earn a bowl bid. However, the Wildcats will begin the season 0-1 with a Friday night game at the Farm against Stanford. The likely 3-6 conference record will leave the guys from the Little Apple home for the holidays.

Texas Tech faces a similar situation. The Red Raiders are looking at 3-6 or even 2-7 in league play, as they must play Kansas State and Iowa State on the road. Playing at Arizona State in September could prevent TTU from going bowling as well.

West Virginia may actually be a tad weaker than the previous two teams, but the Mountaineers have the favorable schedule that could give them the three wins they need to pair with a 3-6 conference mark and finish 6-6.

Iowa State is not ready to compete for bowl eligibility this year, but the Cyclones are moving upwards slowly. They could even sneak into a tie for 7th if the ball bounces their way, but they should win more than one conference game this year.

Kansas still has basketball season to await. The Jayhawks are likely destined for yet another last place finish, but this year KU should at least win a game after finishing 0-12 in 2015. The season opener with Rhode Island is the only for sure winnable game, but the Jayhawks might be confident enough to pull off the mild upset over Ohio the following week. It looks like another 0-9 league mark for the Jayhawks, but then by the time they host Texas on November 19, all will be okay with the Rock Chalkers at Allen Fieldhouse.

Here is how the Big 12 Media predicted the 2016 order of finish.

2016 Big 12 Conference Media Poll
# Team 1st Pl. Total
1 Oklahoma 24 258
2 TCU 2 222
3 Oklahoma St. 0 202
4 Baylor 0 156
5 Texas 0 151
6 Texas Tech 0 141
7 West Virginia 0 126
8 Kansas St. 0 88
9 Iowa St. 0 59
10 Kansas 0 27

Here are the initial 2016 PiRate Ratings for the league.

Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 125.6 122.1 125.6 124.4
Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.8 117.5 117.9
Texas 114.4 118.0 114.4 115.6
TCU 113.3 115.6 113.2 114.0
Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
West Virginia 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.2
Kansas St. 103.1 107.5 102.5 104.4
Texas Tech 104.9 102.3 102.7 103.3
Iowa St. 99.8 99.2 98.7 99.2
Kansas 88.3 96.1 85.9 90.1

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.

Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls, and notice that this league will not provide the needed number to fill all of its obligations, thus benefiting other leagues like the Big Ten and Pac-12, who both may have extra bowl eligible teams this year.

Big 12 Conference Projected Standings
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Oklahoma 9-0 12-0 Playoffs/Fiesta
Oklahoma St. 7-2 10-2 Alamo
Texas 7-2 10-2 Sugar
TCU 6-3 9-3 Russell Athletic
Baylor 6-3 9-3 Texas
West Virginia 3-6 6-6 Liberty
Kansas St. 3-6 5-7  
Texas Tech 2-7 4-8  
Iowa St. 2-7 4-8  
Kansas 0-9 2-10

Coming Monday, August 22: The Pac-12 Conference with wide open races in both divisions.  Is there a surprise team ready to emerge as the new league beast, or is it more of the same old fare?

November 1, 2015

College Football Preview: November 3-7, 2015

The 5-Star College Football Week of the Season
This is the biggest week of the college football season so far. Many questions will be answered by this time next Sunday. The second issuing of the NCAA Playoff Committee will be much different than the first one that comes out Tuesday, as many of the contending teams face off against other contending teams this week. Additionally, there are key games that will weed out conference championship pretenders from the contenders. And, in multiple cases, there will be games where the winners take a giant step toward bowl eligibity, while the losers drop out of the picture.

This is the great Bonanza for you the fan this week.

Tuesday
Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo is still in the race for a New Year’s Six Bowl bid. The Rockets hold wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, and they would need for Memphis and Houston to lose before they would have a shot, but it is still possible. Northern Illinois is still in the MAC West Division race.

Wednesday
Ohio at Bowling Green: The MAC East Division title goes to Bowling Green if the Falcons win this game. If Ohio upsets BGU, the Falcons still have a one-game lead.

Thursday
Arkansas St. at Appalachian St.: The winner will hold first place to themselves in the Sun Belt Conference. Both teams are going bowling this year, and if Appy St. wins out to finish 11-1, that could set up an incredible GoDaddy.com bowl between two 11-win teams.

Saturday
Duke at North Carolina: A week after getting “hosed” by the referees, Duke must now win at its arch-rival to stay in the ACC Coastal Division race. A Tar Heel win basically puts North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game.

Florida St. at Clemson: Another impressive CU win could vault the Tigers into the upper two spots in the Playoff bracket with no remaining teams to play as strong as FSU or Notre Dame, who Clemson would have already beaten. If Florida St. can win at Clemson and then at Florida, and if they could then win the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles would have a chance at the #4 seed.

Arkansas at Ole Miss: This could be a trap game for the Rebels. With a game coming up against LSU, Ole Miss can ill-afford to lose to Arkansas and fall below the Alabama-LSU winner. If Ole Miss can win, the Rebels stay in control in the SEC West Race.

Iowa at Indiana: The Hawkeyes can only make the Playoffs if they win out and then beat either Ohio St. or Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game. Indiana was once 4-0, but they have dropped four straight games. The Hoosiers must come up with two wins in their last four games, and besides this game, they face Michigan and Maryland and Purdue on the road. Kevin Wilson’s job could be on the line.

TCU at Oklahoma St.: The winner should move into the top 4 in the following week’s poll, and Oklahoma State has come out of nowhere to be in this position. The Cowboys host the three other contenders in the league, and at this point, we have to consider them the co-favorite to win the Big 12. The other co-favorite is the team they play Saturday. We believe the winner of this game will emerge as the league champion, but if the league champion loses a game, the destination will most likely be New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl and not the Playoffs.

Cincinnati at Houston: The Cougars can smell that New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid. They have the most advantageous schedule of any of the contending teams for the one guaranteed Group of 5 teams. Cincinnati is out of the NY6 picture, but the Bearcats have an offense capable of matching UH point for point.

Utah St. at New Mexico: Bob Davie has the Lobos close to getting back to a bowl. New Mexico is 4-4 and needs two upsets in their final four games from a group that also includes Boise St., Colorado St., and Air Force. If the Lobos can get an upset in this game, we believe they will get one more. As for Utah St., the Mountain West Mountain Division flag is in their grasp with a previous win over Boise St., but the Aggies must still play at Air Force and cannot afford to slip up here.

Navy at Memphis: Memphis must keep pace with Houston and Toledo in the Group of 5 race. A win here would be considered a quality win, especially if the Tigers can win as convincingly as Notre Dame’s win over the Midshipmen. Navy is basically locked into a Military Bowl bid at this point, but if they beat Memphis and win out, while Houston and Toledo both lose a game ,the Middies could find themselves in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl.

LSU at Alabama: This is the top game of the week. How many times in recent history has this game had national championship repercussions? Can Leonard Fournette keep LSU’s offense moving against a Crimson Tide defense that will force the Tigers to throw the ball or face eight men up front? What about Alabama’s offense? It has been Jekyll and Hyde this year when the Tide has the ball. LSU’s run defense might be up to the task to slow the ‘Bama running game. It should be close and lower than average scoring.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 128.9 126.7 128.5 128.0
2 Ohio St. 129.0 123.6 129.8 127.5
3 Baylor 128.3 124.8 128.8 127.3
4 TCU 129.5 121.0 130.1 126.9
5 Oklahoma 126.4 122.9 126.6 125.3
6 LSU 124.3 121.5 124.7 123.5
7 Clemson 122.6 123.8 123.3 123.2
8 Stanford 122.5 120.7 122.2 121.8
9 Notre Dame 122.8 119.7 122.8 121.8
10 USC 122.7 119.1 123.1 121.6
11 Florida 121.5 118.3 121.9 120.6
12 Ole Miss 122.7 117.7 120.8 120.4
13 Tennessee 121.4 117.3 121.4 120.0
14 Utah 121.7 116.2 120.9 119.6
15 North Carolina 117.8 118.1 117.7 117.9
16 UCLA 120.3 114.3 118.5 117.7
17 Michigan 118.5 115.4 118.1 117.3
18 Texas A&M 117.8 114.5 116.0 116.1
19 Arkansas 118.0 112.5 117.0 115.8
20 Michigan St. 116.6 113.4 116.3 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
22 Oklahoma St. 115.2 112.8 115.6 114.5
23 California 116.2 110.9 115.6 114.2
24 Florida St. 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
25 Georgia 116.9 109.8 115.5 114.1
26 Arizona St. 116.0 110.8 115.0 113.9
27 Oregon 116.0 109.3 115.3 113.5
28 Houston 110.2 117.0 112.9 113.4
29 Wisconsin 113.2 113.5 112.7 113.1
30 Auburn 113.8 111.2 112.8 112.6
31 Iowa 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
32 Georgia Tech 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
33 Boise St. 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
34 West Virginia 113.2 107.5 112.4 111.0
35 Memphis 110.3 111.2 111.1 110.9
36 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
37 North Carolina St. 109.8 111.2 108.6 109.9
38 Temple 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
39 Washington 110.3 107.7 110.9 109.6
40 Bowling Green 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
41 Duke 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.7
42 Missouri 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
43 Louisville 106.9 109.3 106.2 107.5
44 Pittsburgh 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.3
45 BYU 107.1 106.3 108.0 107.1
46 Western Kentucky 106.4 106.5 107.7 106.9
47 Penn St. 106.7 107.0 106.7 106.8
48 Nebraska 107.8 106.0 106.6 106.8
49 San Diego St. 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
50 Cincinnati 105.0 106.1 106.3 105.8
51 Toledo 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
52 South Carolina 107.2 103.7 105.5 105.5
53 Miami 104.1 104.7 105.1 104.6
54 Arizona 106.6 100.9 105.4 104.3
55 Washington St. 105.3 101.4 105.1 103.9
56 Minnesota 104.7 103.0 104.0 103.9
57 Northwestern 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
58 Texas Tech 106.8 98.3 106.2 103.8
59 Colorado 105.9 100.7 104.3 103.6
60 Texas 104.7 101.4 104.5 103.5
61 Louisiana Tech 102.8 102.2 103.6 102.9
62 Navy 100.3 103.8 100.9 101.7
63 Kansas St. 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
64 Illinois 102.6 100.7 101.4 101.6
65 Kentucky 103.3 99.4 101.8 101.5
66 Virginia 101.7 99.7 101.3 100.9
67 Appalachian St. 99.1 102.3 101.3 100.9
68 Utah St. 100.3 100.8 100.8 100.6
69 Boston College 99.8 103.0 98.4 100.4
70 Western Michigan 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.1
71 Iowa St. 99.9 96.4 100.1 98.8
72 Purdue 99.2 98.5 98.0 98.6
73 Vanderbilt 99.9 95.9 99.7 98.5
74 Air Force 96.8 100.8 96.3 98.0
75 Georgia Southern 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
76 Northern Illinois 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
77 Wake Forest 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
78 Indiana 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
79 Marshall 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
80 East Carolina 93.4 96.9 94.2 94.8
81 South Florida 92.5 98.4 93.3 94.7
82 Syracuse 93.9 96.6 93.3 94.6
83 Maryland 94.5 92.9 94.0 93.8
84 Rutgers 95.1 92.1 93.6 93.6
85 Central Michigan 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
86 Southern Mississippi 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
88 San Jose St. 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
89 Tulsa 90.1 94.4 91.1 91.9
90 Colorado St. 92.2 90.8 91.0 91.3
91 Florida International 90.1 92.7 90.7 91.2
92 Oregon St. 92.6 89.3 90.8 90.9
93 Connecticut 88.6 93.4 89.5 90.5
94 Nevada 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
95 Arkansas St. 89.1 89.9 89.9 89.6
96 Ohio 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
97 New Mexico 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
98 Tulane 85.4 87.7 84.9 86.0
99 Buffalo 83.2 89.5 85.1 85.9
100 Massachusetts 84.6 87.2 85.4 85.7
101 Akron 83.0 88.9 84.4 85.4
102 UL-Lafayette 83.6 86.7 84.1 84.8
103 SMU 83.6 87.5 83.2 84.8
104 Rice 83.3 86.6 83.5 84.5
105 Hawaii 83.4 85.6 83.1 84.0
106 Ball St. 82.7 85.1 83.6 83.8
107 UNLV 82.6 84.6 83.2 83.5
108 Florida Atlantic 81.8 84.9 82.3 83.0
109 Troy 80.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
110 Texas St. 80.4 83.8 79.9 81.4
111 Fresno St. 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
112 Army 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
113 Wyoming 80.6 82.8 79.8 81.1
114 UT-San Antonio 79.8 82.3 80.6 80.9
115 Kent St. 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
116 Central Florida 79.2 82.2 79.5 80.3
117 UTEP 76.6 79.1 76.2 77.3
118 South Alabama 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
119 Georgia St. 76.9 76.7 77.4 77.0
120 Old Dominion 75.3 79.7 74.3 76.4
121 UL-Monroe 76.7 75.6 76.7 76.3
122 Idaho 73.1 78.5 74.4 75.3
123 North Texas 73.2 78.0 73.6 74.9
124 Miami (O) 73.1 77.6 73.5 74.7
125 Eastern Michigan 72.2 78.8 71.7 74.2
126 Kansas 76.6 70.2 74.5 73.8
127 New Mexico St. 68.8 70.3 69.0 69.4
128 Charlotte 68.1 70.1 67.7 68.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Clemson
5 LSU
6 Baylor
7 Oklahoma
8 Michigan St.
9 Notre Dame
10 Utah
11 Iowa
12 Florida
13 Stanford
14 Oklahoma St.
15 Michigan
16 Memphis
17 Ole Miss
18 USC
19 Houston
20 Florida St.
21 North Carolina
22 Mississippi St.
23 Toledo
24 Wisconsin
25 Texas A&M
26 UCLA
27 Navy
28 Temple
29 BYU
30 Tennessee
31 Northwestern
32 Penn St.
33 California
34 Boise St.
35 Appalachian St.
36 Bowling Green
37 Duke
38 Pittsburgh
39 Oregon
40 Washington
41 Western Kentucky
42 Arkansas
43 Miami (Fla)
44 Georgia
45 Cincinnati
46 Texas Tech
47 Washington St.
48 Louisville
49 Utah St.
50 North Carolina St.
51 Georgia Southern
52 Auburn
53 West Virginia
54 Marshall
55 Louisiana Tech
56 Virginia Tech
57 Arizona St.
58 San Diego St.
59 Western Michigan
60 Central Michigan
61 Kansas St.
62 Air Force
63 Georgia Tech
64 Minnesota
65 Illinois
66 Iowa St.
67 Indiana
68 Northern Illinois
69 Virginia
70 Missouri
71 Texas
72 South Carolina
73 Arizona
74 Kentucky
75 Arkansas St.
76 Southern Miss.
77 Tulsa
78 Connecticut
79 South Florida
80 East Carolina
81 Nebraska
82 Colorado
83 Boston College
84 Syracuse
85 Ohio
86 Purdue
87 Vanderbilt
88 Maryland
89 Rutgers
90 Buffalo
91 MTSU
92 Wake Forest
93 Louisiana-Lafayette
94 Colorado St.
95 San Jose St.
96 Kent St.
97 Rice
98 Akron
99 Nevada
100 South Alabama
101 Oregon St.
102 Troy
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Ball St.
105 UNLV
106 New Mexico
107 Tulane
108 SMU
109 Army
110 Old Dominion
111 Texas St.
112 Fresno St.
113 Massachusetts
114 Idaho
115 Florida Atlantic
116 Georgia St.
117 Hawaii
118 Kansas
119 Louisiana-Monroe
120 Wyoming
121 UTSA
122 UTEP
123 Miami (O)
124 Eastern Michigan
125 North Texas
126 Central Florida
127 Charlotte
128 New Mexico St.

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 4-0 7-1 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
Cincinnati 2-2 5-3 105.0 106.1 106.3 105.8
East Carolina 2-3 4-5 93.4 96.9 94.2 94.8
South Florida 2-2 4-4 92.5 98.4 93.3 94.7
Connecticut 2-3 4-5 88.6 93.4 89.5 90.5
Central Florida 0-5 0-9 79.2 82.2 79.5 80.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 4-0 8-0 110.2 117.0 112.9 113.4
Memphis 4-0 8-0 110.3 111.2 111.1 110.9
Navy 4-0 6-1 100.3 103.8 100.9 101.7
Tulsa 1-3 4-4 90.1 94.4 91.1 91.9
Tulane 1-4 2-6 85.4 87.7 84.9 86.0
SMU 0-4 1-7 83.6 87.5 83.2 84.8
             
AAC Averages     95.6 99.1 96.4 97.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 5-0 8-0 122.6 123.8 123.3 123.2
Florida St. 5-1 7-1 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
North Carolina St. 1-3 5-3 109.8 111.2 108.6 109.9
Louisville 3-2 4-4 106.9 109.3 106.2 107.5
Boston College 0-6 3-6 99.8 103.0 98.4 100.4
Wake Forest 1-5 3-6 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
Syracuse 1-3 3-5 93.9 96.6 93.3 94.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 4-0 7-1 117.8 118.1 117.7 117.9
Georgia Tech 1-5 3-6 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
Duke 3-1 6-2 108.4 108.8 108.9 108.7
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-2 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.3
Miami 2-2 5-3 104.1 104.7 105.1 104.6
Virginia 2-2 3-5 101.7 99.7 101.3 100.9
             
ACC Averages     107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 4-0 7-0 128.3 124.8 128.8 127.3
TCU 5-0 8-0 129.5 121.0 130.1 126.9
Oklahoma 4-1 7-1 126.4 122.9 126.6 125.3
Oklahoma St. 5-0 8-0 115.2 112.8 115.6 114.5
West Virginia 0-4 3-4 113.2 107.5 112.4 111.0
Texas Tech 2-4 5-4 106.8 98.3 106.2 103.8
Texas 2-3 3-5 104.7 101.4 104.5 103.5
Kansas St. 0-4 3-4 105.3 95.2 104.3 101.6
Iowa St. 2-3 3-5 99.9 96.4 100.1 98.8
Kansas 0-5 0-8 76.6 70.2 74.5 73.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 8-0 129.0 123.6 129.8 127.5
Michigan 3-1 6-2 118.5 115.4 118.1 117.3
Michigan St. 4-0 8-0 116.6 113.4 116.3 115.4
Penn St. 4-1 7-2 106.7 107.0 106.7 106.8
Indiana 0-4 4-4 96.2 96.2 95.5 96.0
Maryland 0-4 2-6 94.5 92.9 94.0 93.8
Rutgers 1-4 3-5 95.1 92.1 93.6 93.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-1 7-2 113.2 113.5 112.7 113.1
Iowa 4-0 8-0 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
Nebraska 1-4 3-6 107.8 106.0 106.6 106.8
Minnesota 1-3 4-4 104.7 103.0 104.0 103.9
Northwestern 2-2 6-2 103.9 104.0 103.5 103.8
Illinois 1-3 4-4 102.6 100.7 101.4 101.6
Purdue 1-3 2-6 99.2 98.5 98.0 98.6
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 5-0 7-2 106.4 106.5 107.7 106.9
Marshall 5-0 8-1 95.5 96.6 95.8 96.0
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-5 93.2 92.0 92.7 92.6
Florida International 2-3 4-5 90.1 92.7 90.7 91.2
Florida Atlantic 2-3 2-6 81.8 84.9 82.3 83.0
Old Dominion 1-3 3-5 75.3 79.7 74.3 76.4
Charlotte 0-5 2-6 68.1 70.1 67.7 68.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 4-1 6-3 102.8 102.2 103.6 102.9
Southern Mississippi 4-1 6-3 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
Rice 2-2 4-4 83.3 86.6 83.5 84.5
UT-San Antonio 1-3 1-7 79.8 82.3 80.6 80.9
UTEP 1-3 3-5 76.6 79.1 76.2 77.3
North Texas 1-4 1-7 73.2 78.0 73.6 74.9
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.0 86.2 86.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   7-1 122.8 119.7 122.8 121.8
BYU   6-2 107.1 106.3 108.0 107.1
Army   2-6 77.7 86.7 79.1 81.2
             
Independents Averages     102.5 104.2 103.3 103.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 4-0 6-2 106.2 111.0 109.0 108.7
Ohio 2-2 5-3 87.0 91.3 88.6 89.0
Buffalo 2-2 4-4 83.2 89.5 85.1 85.9
Massachusetts 0-4 1-7 84.6 87.2 85.4 85.7
Akron 1-3 3-5 83.0 88.9 84.4 85.4
Kent St. 2-2 3-5 79.5 82.0 80.0 80.5
Miami (O) 0-5 1-8 73.1 77.6 73.5 74.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-0 7-0 104.6 105.6 106.3 105.5
Western Michigan 4-0 5-3 99.5 100.2 100.6 100.1
Northern Illinois 3-1 5-3 95.3 99.2 96.0 96.8
Central Michigan 4-1 5-4 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
Ball St. 2-3 3-6 82.7 85.1 83.6 83.8
Eastern Michigan 0-5 1-8 72.2 78.8 71.7 74.2
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
Utah St. 4-1 5-3 100.3 100.8 100.8 100.6
Air Force 4-1 5-3 96.8 100.8 96.3 98.0
Colorado St. 1-3 3-5 92.2 90.8 91.0 91.3
New Mexico 2-2 4-4 88.2 89.0 86.9 88.0
Wyoming 1-4 1-8 80.6 82.8 79.8 81.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-0 6-3 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
San Jose St. 3-2 4-4 91.3 94.2 91.2 92.2
Nevada 2-2 4-4 88.8 92.5 88.4 89.9
Hawaii 0-5 2-7 83.4 85.6 83.1 84.0
UNLV 1-3 2-6 82.6 84.6 83.2 83.5
Fresno St. 1-4 2-6 80.7 84.4 78.9 81.3
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 6-0 7-1 122.5 120.7 122.2 121.8
California 2-3 5-3 116.2 110.9 115.6 114.2
Oregon 3-2 5-3 116.0 109.3 115.3 113.5
Washington 2-3 4-4 110.3 107.7 110.9 109.6
Washington St. 3-2 5-3 105.3 101.4 105.1 103.9
Oregon St. 0-5 2-6 92.6 89.3 90.8 90.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 3-2 5-3 122.7 119.1 123.1 121.6
Utah 4-1 7-1 121.7 116.2 120.9 119.6
UCLA 3-2 6-2 120.3 114.3 118.5 117.7
Arizona St. 2-3 4-4 116.0 110.8 115.0 113.9
Arizona 2-4 5-4 106.6 100.9 105.4 104.3
Colorado 1-4 4-5 105.9 100.7 104.3 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 5-1 7-1 121.5 118.3 121.9 120.6
Tennessee 2-3 4-4 121.4 117.3 121.4 120.0
Georgia 3-3 5-3 116.9 109.8 115.5 114.1
Missouri 1-4 4-4 109.0 105.4 108.0 107.5
South Carolina 1-5 3-5 107.2 103.7 105.5 105.5
Kentucky 2-4 4-4 103.3 99.4 101.8 101.5
Vanderbilt 1-3 3-5 99.9 95.9 99.7 98.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.9 126.7 128.5 128.0
LSU 4-0 7-0 124.3 121.5 124.7 123.5
Ole Miss 4-1 7-2 122.7 117.7 120.8 120.4
Texas A&M 3-2 6-2 117.8 114.5 116.0 116.1
Arkansas 2-2 4-4 118.0 112.5 117.0 115.8
Mississippi St. 2-2 6-2 115.8 112.5 116.2 114.8
Auburn 1-4 4-4 113.8 111.2 112.8 112.6
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 4-0 7-1 99.1 102.3 101.3 100.9
Georgia Southern 4-1 6-2 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-3 89.1 89.9 89.9 89.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-4 83.6 86.7 84.1 84.8
Troy 1-3 2-6 80.7 82.1 82.2 81.7
Texas St. 1-2 2-5 80.4 83.8 79.9 81.4
South Alabama 1-2 3-4 74.7 80.7 75.6 77.0
Georgia St. 1-2 2-5 76.9 76.7 77.4 77.0
UL-Monroe 0-4 1-7 76.7 75.6 76.7 76.3
Idaho 2-3 3-5 73.1 78.5 74.4 75.3
New Mexico St. 1-3 1-7 68.8 70.3 69.0 69.4
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.8 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.3 108.7
4 ACC 107.4 108.3 107.1 107.6
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.5 104.2 103.3 103.4
7 AAC 95.6 99.1 96.4 97.0
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
9 MAC 87.8 91.6 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.0 88.0 86.2 86.8
11 SBC 81.7 84.1 82.5 82.8

 

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 LSU
3 Clemson
4 Baylor

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Memphis      
2 Houston      
3 Toleo      
4 Temple      
5 Navy  

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Iowa St.  
9 Purdue  
8 Vanderbilt  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Indiana  
5 Syracuse  
4 Maryland  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.6
2 Dartmouth 92.8
3 Harvard 92.4
4 Chattanooga 91.3
5 Illinois St. 91.1
6 North Dakota St. 91.0
7 McNeese St. 90.7
8 Dayton 90.6
9 Richmond 90.3
10 Charleston Southern 89.4

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 3        
Toledo Northern Illinois 12.3 9.4 10.1
         
Wednesday, November 4        
Bowling Green Ohio 21.2 21.7 22.4
         
Thursday, November 5        
Kent St. Buffalo -1.2 -5.0 -2.6
Western Michigan Ball St. 19.8 18.1 20.0
Appalachian St. Arkansas St. 13.0 15.4 14.4
Kansas St. Baylor -20.0 -26.6 -21.5
Missouri Mississippi St. -3.8 -4.1 -5.2
Fresno St. Nevada -5.1 -5.1 -6.5
         
Friday, November 6        
SMU Temple -22.2 -20.4 -23.3
UTEP Rice -4.2 -5.0 -4.8
San Jose St. BYU -12.8 -9.1 -13.8
         
Saturday, November 7        
Massachusetts Akron 4.1 0.8 3.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 27.6 24.6 28.4
Tulsa Central Florida 13.9 15.2 14.6
Northwestern Penn St. 0.2 0.0 -0.2
Purdue Illinois -0.4 0.8 -0.4
Florida Int’l. Charlotte 25.0 25.6 26.0
West Virginia Texas Tech 9.4 12.2 9.2
North Carolina Duke 10.9 10.8 10.3
Florida Vanderbilt 24.6 25.4 25.2
Georgia Kentucky 16.6 13.4 16.7
Pittsburgh Notre Dame -12.9 -9.1 -12.3
Louisville Syracuse 16.0 15.7 15.9
Boston College North Carolina St. -7.0 -5.2 -7.2
Colorado Stanford -13.6 -17.0 -14.9
Georgia St. Louisiana-Lafayette -4.2 -7.5 -4.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan 3.4 1.3 4.3
South Alabama Idaho 5.1 5.7 4.7
Wyoming Colorado St. -9.6 -6.0 -9.2
Miami (Fla) Virginia 4.9 7.5 6.3
Clemson Florida St. 11.5 12.0 12.9
Ole Miss Arkansas 7.7 8.2 6.8
Air Force Army 22.1 17.1 20.2
Washington St. Arizona St. -7.7 -6.4 -6.9
Indiana Iowa -11.5 -13.7 -12.8
Maryland Wisconsin -15.7 -17.6 -15.7
Michigan Rutgers 26.4 26.3 27.5
Oklahoma St. TCU -11.3 -5.2 -11.5
Louisiana Tech North Texas 32.6 27.2 33.0
Middle Tennessee Marshall 0.7 -1.6 -0.1
Houston Cincinnati 8.2 13.9 9.6
Troy Louisiana-Monroe 6.5 9.0 8.0
New Mexico Utah St. -9.1 -8.8 -10.9
Texas St. New Mexico St. 13.6 15.5 12.9
Tulane Connecticut -2.0 -2.7 -1.6
Tennessee South Carolina 17.2 16.6 18.9
Oregon St. UCLA -24.7 -22.0 -24.7
UNLV Hawaii 3.2 3.0 4.1
Memphis Navy 13.0 10.4 13.2
UTSA Old Dominion 7.0 5.1 8.8
Oklahoma Iowa St. 29.5 29.5 29.5
Nebraska Michigan St. -5.8 -4.4 -6.7
Washington Utah -8.4 -5.5 -7.0
Texas A&M Auburn 7.0 6.3 6.2
East Carolina South Florida 3.9 1.5 3.9
Alabama LSU 7.6 8.2 6.8
Texas Kansas 31.1 34.2 33.0
Ohio St. Minnesota 27.3 23.6 28.8
Oregon California 2.8 1.4 2.7
USC Arizona 19.1 21.2 20.7

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA Colorado St. vs. Old Dominion
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Washington St. vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Temple vs. Bowling Green
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. Washington *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Toledo vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina vs. Oregon
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Texas St. * vs. Rice
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers ^
Independence SEC ACC Akron * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Miami (Fla) * vs. California
Military ACC AAC North Carolina St. vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville vs. Buffalo *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Central Michigan * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC East Carolina vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC Florida St. vs. Georgia
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Kentucky
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Iowa vs. LSU
Cotton Playoff Playoff Ohio St. vs. Alabama
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Oklahoma St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. UCLA
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Utah vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke vs. Texas A&M
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. USC
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Ohio St. vs. Clemson
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Rutgers qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

October 5, 2015

College Football Preview: October 8-10, 2015

Note: South Carolina – LSU game has been moved from USC to LSU.  We have updated the spreads for that game below.

Deja vu in the Big Ten?

We have stated it earlier in the season, but at this point in the season, the Big Ten race looks eerily similar to the 1969 Big Ten season. Of course, there are differences, especially in the way the game is played today as compared to 46 seasons ago, but there are enough similarities that it has heightened our enthusiasm toward watching the Big Ten games.

For a little background, our PiRate Ratings began about this time 46 years ago. It was about four games into the season (10-game seasons for most, 9-game season still for Ohio St.), that we looked in the newspaper to discover the entire top ten was undefeated and untied. Our founder thought, “how can you determine which of these 10 teams is really the best?”

He began looking at comparative scores and how easily or difficult each win was. That is how the PiRate Ratings started. At first, no numerical rating was awarded; it was strictly who is better than who.
Ohio State entered the 1969 season after becoming the surprise 1968 National Champion. The Buckeyes had knocked off unbeaten USC with Heisman Trophy winner O.J. Simpson the previous year. Coach Woody Hayes’ team was predominately a group of sensational sophomores. Beginning the 1969 season, the Buckeyes were the clear-cut number one team.

Purdue was also a pre-season top 10 team entering 1969. The Boilermakers were coming off three consecutive 8-2 regular seasons (with a Rose Bowl win in 1966-67 to make it a ninth win). Purdue had the top quarterback in the conference in Mike Phipps, and many experts believed he was the best passer in the nation and certain first QB to be picked in the next NFL Draft.

Michigan had finished the 1968 season with a 50-14 pasting by Ohio State. Worse than the final score was that the Buckeyes led the Wolverines 44-14 late in the fourth quarter when outstanding fullback Jim Otis barreled his way into the end zone for a touchdown. Up 50-14, Hayes decided to punish the hated rival to the north and go for two points. Bill Long, the 1967 starter who lost his QB job to Buckeye great Rex Kern attempted to pass to Bill Pollitt but overthrew him, and the try was unsuccessful. The Wolverines had to deal with this defeat for a year, and they vowed to get their revenge.
Michigan began 1969 with a new head coach in fiery Bo Schembechler, who had already enjoyed success as a 6-year head coach at Miami of Ohio. Schembechler favored shortening games with a tough defense that stopped the run and rushed the quarterback, while grinding it out with a power running game and play-action passing game on offense.
By now, you should be able to see the similarities. The 1969 Ohio State team began the season as the obvious number one team with a group of more than two dozen junior stars. Purdue figured to be the top challenger to Ohio State with a great quarterback and an exceptional coach in Jack Mollenkopf, who had built the Boilermaker program up to national prominence, even taking PU to the top spot in the polls for a couple weeks in the past.
Michigan was not picked to contend for the top three spots in the Big Ten with a new coach, with a new philosophy, and a lot of new personnel.

The one substitute in this similarity to 2015 is to change Purdue to Michigan St. Here is what you have in 2015.
Ohio State is the runaway number one choice as the season begins and continues. Michigan State with outstanding coach Mark Dantonio and top quarterback Connor Cook has risen to national prominence and is the top contender. Michigan with fiery new coach Jim Harbaugh with years of past experience is the team nobody picked to contend, coming in behind Penn State in the preseason pecking order for number four in the East Division.

Now, add another little fact to the similarity. The 1969 Wolverine team fell early to a team from another power conference, said team then going on to win that conference and play in the Orange Bowl. Missouri beat the 1969 Wolverines. UM was written off after that defeat, but Missouri won the Big 8 title and played in the Orange Bowl.
2015 Michigan lost at Utah to begin the season. With the Utes now 4-0 and nationally ranked after winning by four touchdowns at Oregon, that UM loss in Salt Lake City does not look so bad. With consecutive shutout wins, the Wolverines surely look like a Schembechler team. Harbaugh did play for Bo in Ann Arbor.

The Wolverines have a tough game this week against unbeaten Northwestern. This one could see less than 20 total points scored, and a 0-0 score late in the game would not be surprising. It is homecoming in Ann Arbor. Michigan better not be looking ahead to the next game for the Paul Bunyan Trophy against the Spartans, because this NU team owns a win over Stanford, and they do not fear the Wolverines.

The Big Ten is going to continue to be the most interesting conference until things play out. With Iowa still undefeated, the races in both divisions will be fun to watch.

Next Coaches to move to Power 5 Conference Teams

There appears to be future openings at teams in Power 5 Conferences. Depending on who you believe, there could be a half-dozen openings in the big time.

Illinois figures to look for a new full-time coach, but if interim Bill Cubit continues to perform well, this job may not be open. Paul Rhoads is in serious jeopardy at Iowa State. Virginia’s Mike London faced a much too difficult schedule, and he has virtually no chance of guiding the Cavaliers to a winning record. Darrell Hazell might have secured his spot at Purdue had the Boilermakers been able to close the deal and upset Michigan State, but Hazell is likely to be fired at the end of this season if Purdue finishes in the West Division basement again.

Then, there are some big name coaches at big name schools that have the fans, alums, and boosters complaining. Charlie Strong at Texas is probably safe because the Longhorns have a long list of folks still on the payroll and no longer. If the Longhorns lose by 30 points this week to Oklahoma and then lose to either Iowa State or Kansas, Strong could find himself in some trouble.

Maryland’s Randy Edsall has never really endeared himself to the Terrapin community, and the Terps could seek a new coach next year, especially if UM loses to Rutgers and finishes last in the Big Ten East.

While we don’t believe it is possible, there are no rumblings to replace Butch Jones at Tennessee, after the Volunteers blew their third 14-point lead of the season in a loss to Arkansas. Losses to Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, and Alabama would leave the Vols at 5-7, and in the same boat they were when they fired Derek Dooley after three seasons.

Al Golden is in some hot water at Miami, even though he has had to deal with a lot of sanctions from the previous regime. The Hurricanes should be bowl eligible this year, but this school has not traveled to bowls in large numbers in recent years. Golden probably keeps his job unless the ‘Canes collapse and finish below .500.

Virginia Tech’s Frank Beamer may be sent out to pasture in a manner similar to Bobby Bowden. The Hokies have not contended for ACC honors in recent years, and the fans in Blacksburg are ready for something new. They may get it.

The ole ball coach is not completely safe at South Carolina. Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks fell from 11-2 to 7-6 last year and could drop below .500 this year. A homecoming loss to Vanderbilt in two weeks could seal his fate.

With a lot of possible job openings, which Group of 5 coaches appear to be ready to move up to the big time? Let’s take a look league by league.

American Athletic Conference
Justin Fuente is the current darling of the mid-major football world. The Memphis coach has won 12 consecutive games, and the Tigers are now more of a football than basketball school. Fuente comes from the Garry Patterson coaching tree, and he could be the leading candidate should the Iowa State job become available. Memphis fans like to believe that their team can move up to the Big 12 and become big-time, thus being able to keep Fuente, but that is not likely to happen in the next six months, and job openings with his name at the top of the list will be available.

Tommy Tuberville is 61 years old, so a little bit of age discrimination could creep into his attempts to move back to the big time. He begged to get out of Lubbock and took the Cincinnati job as somewhat of a step down from Texas Tech. We could see where Virginia might have an interest in him, after David Cutcliffe has done so well at Duke.
Matt Rhule has done wonders at Temple. Several schools could look toward him. Rhule has NFL experience and could also become a candidate for a couple pro jobs.

East Carolina’s Ruffin McNeill creates a lot of excitement with his wide open offense. The Pirates have consistently averaged 35-40 points per game and have been bowling four of his five seasons in Greenville. ECU is in contention in the East Division this year, and if they win the crown, McNeill could vault above many others for job openings, like at Virginia Tech or Maryland.

Houston’s Tom Herman is a first year head coach. It would be a major surprise to see Herman leave after one year, but if the Cougars run the table and earn the New Year’s Six Bowl allocated to a Group of Five member, he might not ever be this hot of a commodity. The former Urban Meyer assistant could be on the radar of several schools.

Conference USA
Maybe the best recruiter in the land resides in CUSA. Marshall’s Doc Holliday would draw interest from any Big Ten or ACC school with an opening. Holliday might prefer to stay in West Virginia, but the job in Mogantown does not appear to have any openings in the near future.

Jeff Brohm is just in his second season at Western Kentucky, but the Hilltoppers are fun to watch, and they win. WKU went should earn back-to-back bowl games, and Brohm could field multiple offers at the end of the season.
With a last name of “Holtz,” if the team you coach has consistent success, you are going to eventually get an offer to move up. Skip Holtz has produced winners at East Carolina and now at Louisiana Tech. His dad started out small at William & Mary before moving on to five big time schools.

Mid-American Conference
The MAC tends to produce more Power 5 head coaches than any other league, mostly ascending to the Big Ten. There is no shortage of future Power 5 possibiities here. Let’s start with Toledo’s Matt Campbell, who has guided the Rockets to wins over Arkansas and Iowa State this year. He may be the first option at the first Big Ten opening this year.

Rod Carey has done quite well at Northern Illinois despite the Huskies not faring so well this year. Still, Carey has produced 12 and 11-win seasons in Dekalb, and NIU has become the new “Cradle of Coaches.”

Dino Babers is already 2-0 in the Big Ten this year, and Bowling Green hopes to go undefeated in the MAC as well. Babers’ offense is another one of those wide-open high-scoring outfits that fans love to watch.

Mountain West Conference
The Boise State coach is always going to be a hot commodity. Bryan Harsin guided the Broncos to the Fiesta Bowl in his first season in Potatoland, and the Broncos are in contention for another New Year’s Six Bowl again this year.

Former Notre Dame coach Bob Davie has slowly built the New Mexico program up to where the Lobos could sneak into a bowl this year. Davie’s teams have consistently led the nation in rushing among teams not using the triple-option offense. He could be an option at an Iowa State, Virginia, Maryland, or Purdue.

Sun Belt Conference
There are no real candidates in this league at the current time, but should Paul Johnson retire at Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern’s Willie Fritz could be the best option, and we do mean to use “option” as a double entendre. Fritz’s option offense is totally different than the option offenses used at Tech, Army, Navy, or Air Force. He likely will never be a serious candidate at any successful Power 5 program, but at a Georgia Tech, Purdue, Vanderbilt, or Kansas, this type of philosophy could turn things around.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
1 Ohio St.
2 Alabama
3 TCU
4 Utah
5 Oklahoma
6 Texas A&M
7 Baylor
8 Clemson
9 LSU
10 Northwestern
11 Florida
12 Florida St.
13 Stanford
14 Michigan
15 USC
16 Michigan St.
17 Notre Dame
18 Ole Miss
19 Georgia
20 Oklahoma St.
21 Iowa
22 UCLA
23 California
24 West Virginia
25 Houston
26 Boise St.
27 Toledo
28 Temple
29 Memphis
30 BYU
31 Navy
32 Pittsburgh
33 North Carolina
34 Duke
35 Kansas St.
36 Western Kentucky
37 Mississippi St.
38 Kentucky
39 Missouri
40 North Carolina St.
41 Texas Tech
42 Wisconsin
43 Arizona St.
44 Oregon
45 Illinois
46 Indiana
47 Arkansas
48 Louisville
49 Miami (Fl.)
50 Penn St.
51 Washington
52 Tennessee
53 Syracuse
54 Ohio
55 Cincinnati
56 East Carolina
57 Boston College
58 Minnesota
59 Georgia Southern
60 Marshall
61 Auburn
62 Arizona
63 Air Force
64 Louisiana Tech
65 Georgia Tech
66 Nebraska
67 Bowling Green
68 Appalachian St.
69 Tulsa
70 South Carolina
71 Virginia Tech
72 Utah St.
73 Iowa St.
74 Oregon St.
75 Colorado
76 Vanderbilt
77 Central Michigan
78 Wake Forest
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas
81 Northern Illinois
82 Washington St.
83 Virginia
84 Southern Miss.
85 Arkansas St.
86 Ball St.
87 Akron
88 Connecticut
89 Western Michigan
90 Maryland
91 San Jose St.
92 South Alabama
93 Rutgers
94 Colorado St.
95 San Diego St.
96 Massachusetts
97 Buffalo
98 Purdue
99 UNLV
100 New Mexico
101 Rice
102 South Florida
103 Nevada
104 Kent St.
105 Florida Int’l
106 UL-Monroe
107 Hawaii
108 Tulane
109 Army
110 UL-Lafayette
111 Troy
112 UT-San Antonio
113 Texas St.
114 SMU
115 Old Dominion
116 Fresno St.
117 Eastern Michigan
118 Florida Atlantic
119 Central Florida
120 Idaho
121 Miami (O)
122 UTEP
123 Kansas
124 Charlotte
125 Georgia St.
126 North Texas
127 New Mexico St.
128 Wyoming

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 128.8 121.3 129.7 126.6
2 Alabama 127.4 125.3 126.8 126.5
3 TCU 129.1 120.0 130.2 126.4
4 Baylor 126.4 122.7 127.3 125.5
5 USC 124.9 121.5 125.3 123.9
6 Utah 125.7 119.9 125.1 123.6
7 Oklahoma 122.8 120.0 123.3 122.0
8 Notre Dame 123.0 119.4 123.3 121.9
9 Ole Miss 124.4 117.8 122.3 121.5
10 Stanford 121.2 120.0 121.2 120.8
11 LSU 122.0 118.6 121.6 120.7
12 Texas A&M 120.9 118.7 120.0 119.9
13 UCLA 121.5 115.0 119.3 118.6
14 Georgia 121.3 113.8 120.4 118.5
15 Tennessee 118.7 114.1 118.1 117.0
16 Clemson 116.1 117.0 116.2 116.4
17 Georgia Tech 117.7 114.7 116.9 116.4
18 Michigan 117.3 113.6 117.1 116.0
19 Oregon 118.6 111.3 118.0 116.0
20 Arkansas 118.2 112.4 117.4 116.0
21 Florida 116.9 113.6 116.8 115.8
22 North Carolina 115.9 115.8 115.7 115.8
23 Boise St. 117.1 112.0 117.0 115.4
24 California 116.7 111.6 116.6 115.0
25 Michigan St. 116.4 112.3 115.7 114.8
26 West Virginia 115.6 110.2 115.0 113.6
27 Florida St. 113.8 114.3 112.4 113.5
28 Arizona St. 115.3 110.3 114.2 113.3
29 Mississippi St. 114.3 110.3 114.2 112.9
30 Auburn 113.3 111.1 112.1 112.2
31 Oklahoma St. 112.3 110.5 112.5 111.8
32 North Carolina St. 110.5 112.3 109.4 110.7
33 Louisville 109.3 112.1 109.9 110.4
34 Wisconsin 109.9 110.9 109.1 110.0
35 Virginia Tech 110.4 108.5 110.5 109.8
36 Missouri 110.7 107.8 110.0 109.5
37 Northwestern 108.7 109.6 108.9 109.1
38 Temple 107.1 109.1 108.2 108.1
39 Iowa 106.4 109.5 107.3 107.7
40 Texas Tech 110.8 101.6 110.7 107.7
41 Nebraska 108.9 106.2 108.1 107.7
42 Miami 106.9 107.3 107.2 107.1
43 Arizona 110.1 102.9 107.9 107.0
44 Pittsburgh 105.1 106.5 106.4 106.0
45 Duke 105.7 105.4 106.3 105.8
46 Kansas St. 109.9 98.7 108.8 105.8
47 Illinois 106.9 104.4 105.7 105.7
48 Western Kentucky 104.8 104.1 106.3 105.1
49 South Carolina 106.9 103.3 105.2 105.1
50 Memphis 104.4 104.8 105.5 104.9
51 BYU 105.1 103.6 105.9 104.9
52 Cincinnati 104.2 104.8 105.5 104.8
53 Houston 101.1 109.2 103.9 104.7
54 Kentucky 105.8 102.4 105.1 104.4
55 Penn St. 103.5 106.1 103.6 104.4
56 Minnesota 105.0 103.5 104.2 104.2
57 Colorado 105.7 100.9 104.8 103.8
58 Washington 104.0 102.0 104.5 103.5
59 Texas 104.3 101.7 103.7 103.2
60 Boston College 101.4 105.8 99.9 102.4
61 Toledo 101.5 100.2 102.8 101.5
62 Louisiana Tech 101.6 99.7 102.7 101.3
63 Navy 99.6 103.0 100.1 100.9
64 Virginia 100.6 97.5 99.7 99.3
65 Vanderbilt 100.9 95.8 100.5 99.1
66 Bowling Green 96.8 101.1 98.6 98.8
67 Purdue 99.3 98.9 98.1 98.8
68 Indiana 98.1 99.3 98.2 98.5
69 Middle Tennessee 98.3 97.3 97.9 97.8
70 Washington St. 99.6 94.7 98.3 97.5
71 Appalachian St. 95.6 99.1 97.6 97.4
72 East Carolina 95.8 99.1 96.4 97.1
73 Syracuse 96.0 99.7 95.6 97.1
74 Georgia Southern 96.0 98.3 96.8 97.0
75 Wake Forest 95.6 99.5 94.7 96.6
76 Utah St. 96.8 95.3 96.9 96.3
77 Western Michigan 96.0 95.3 97.2 96.2
78 San Diego St. 93.9 99.2 94.8 96.0
79 San Jose St. 94.3 97.5 94.7 95.5
80 Rutgers 97.3 94.0 95.1 95.5
81 Marshall 95.1 95.6 95.4 95.4
82 Air Force 93.7 98.7 93.4 95.3
83 Ohio 93.2 97.6 94.9 95.2
84 Iowa St. 95.9 92.6 95.1 94.5
85 Northern Illinois 92.7 95.5 93.0 93.7
86 Tulsa 90.9 96.7 92.2 93.3
87 Colorado St. 93.5 91.4 91.9 92.3
88 Oregon St. 93.0 91.4 92.1 92.2
89 Maryland 92.0 89.4 90.5 90.6
90 South Florida 88.6 94.9 88.3 90.6
91 Massachusetts 88.5 91.9 90.3 90.2
92 Nevada 89.0 93.0 88.4 90.1
93 New Mexico 90.1 90.8 89.2 90.0
94 Southern Mississippi 89.6 90.5 89.3 89.8
95 Florida International 88.4 90.8 90.0 89.7
96 Tulane 89.1 91.7 87.8 89.5
97 Central Florida 87.7 91.0 88.5 89.1
98 Central Michigan 86.9 90.9 89.0 88.9
99 Arkansas St. 88.6 88.5 89.3 88.8
100 Hawaii 88.0 89.9 88.2 88.7
101 Akron 85.5 91.8 87.2 88.2
102 Buffalo 84.1 91.3 86.6 87.3
103 Ball St. 85.9 88.6 87.0 87.2
104 SMU 85.3 89.1 85.2 86.5
105 Fresno St. 84.8 90.6 83.1 86.2
106 Rice 83.9 87.6 84.3 85.3
107 Army 81.0 91.6 82.9 85.2
108 Connecticut 83.1 88.5 83.7 85.1
109 Kent St. 83.3 86.1 84.0 84.5
110 UL-Lafayette 82.6 86.0 82.6 83.7
111 UNLV 82.2 84.6 83.1 83.3
112 Florida Atlantic 81.7 85.7 82.1 83.2
113 Texas St. 81.2 85.1 80.9 82.4
114 UT-San Antonio 80.6 83.8 82.0 82.1
115 UL-Monroe 81.9 79.1 81.5 80.8
116 UTEP 79.2 81.8 78.8 79.9
117 South Alabama 76.1 83.2 77.9 79.1
118 Wyoming 78.4 80.4 77.0 78.6
119 Old Dominion 76.5 82.2 75.4 78.0
120 Eastern Michigan 74.7 84.2 74.3 77.7
121 Miami (O) 75.3 80.4 75.4 77.0
122 North Texas 74.9 80.6 75.0 76.8
123 Kansas 78.6 72.3 76.3 75.7
124 Troy 74.6 75.0 76.1 75.2
125 Georgia St. 75.4 74.1 75.1 74.9
126 New Mexico St. 73.9 75.2 74.1 74.4
127 Idaho 70.7 78.2 72.0 73.6
128 Charlotte 69.2 71.3 69.1 69.9

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 4-0 107.1 109.1 108.2 108.1
Cincinnati 0-2 3-2 104.2 104.8 105.5 104.8
East Carolina 1-1 3-2 95.8 99.1 96.4 97.1
South Florida 0-1 1-3 88.6 94.9 88.3 90.6
Central Florida 0-1 0-5 87.7 91.0 88.5 89.1
Connecticut 0-1 2-3 83.1 88.5 83.7 85.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-0 5-0 104.4 104.8 105.5 104.9
Houston 1-0 4-0 101.1 109.2 103.9 104.7
Navy 2-0 4-0 99.6 103.0 100.1 100.9
Tulsa 0-1 2-2 90.9 96.7 92.2 93.3
Tulane 1-0 2-2 89.1 91.7 87.8 89.5
SMU 0-1 1-4 85.3 89.1 85.2 86.5
             
AAC Averages     94.7 98.5 95.4 96.2
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 4-0 116.1 117.0 116.2 116.4
Florida St. 2-0 4-0 113.8 114.3 112.4 113.5
North Carolina St. 0-1 4-1 110.5 112.3 109.4 110.7
Louisville 1-1 2-3 109.3 112.1 109.9 110.4
Boston College 0-2 3-2 101.4 105.8 99.9 102.4
Syracuse 1-0 3-1 96.0 99.7 95.6 97.1
Wake Forest 0-2 2-3 95.6 99.5 94.7 96.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-2 2-3 117.7 114.7 116.9 116.4
North Carolina 1-0 4-1 115.9 115.8 115.7 115.8
Virginia Tech 0-1 2-3 110.4 108.5 110.5 109.8
Miami 0-0 3-1 106.9 107.3 107.2 107.1
Pittsburgh 1-0 3-1 105.1 106.5 106.4 106.0
Duke 2-0 4-1 105.7 105.4 106.3 105.8
Virginia 0-0 1-3 100.6 97.5 99.7 99.3
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.3 107.2 107.7
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
TCU 2-0 5-0 129.1 120.0 130.2 126.4
Baylor 1-0 4-0 126.4 122.7 127.3 125.5
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 122.8 120.0 123.3 122.0
West Virginia 0-1 3-1 115.6 110.2 115.0 113.6
Oklahoma St. 2-0 5-0 112.3 110.5 112.5 111.8
Texas Tech 0-2 3-2 110.8 101.6 110.7 107.7
Kansas St. 0-1 3-1 109.9 98.7 108.8 105.8
Texas 0-2 1-4 104.3 101.7 103.7 103.2
Iowa St. 1-0 2-2 95.9 92.6 95.1 94.5
Kansas 0-1 0-4 78.6 72.3 76.3 75.7
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.0 110.3 108.6
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 5-0 128.8 121.3 129.7 126.6
Michigan 1-0 4-1 117.3 113.6 117.1 116.0
Michigan St. 1-0 5-0 116.4 112.3 115.7 114.8
Penn St. 1-0 4-1 103.5 106.1 103.6 104.4
Indiana 0-1 4-1 98.1 99.3 98.2 98.5
Rutgers 0-1 2-2 97.3 94.0 95.1 95.5
Maryland 0-1 2-3 92.0 89.4 90.5 90.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-1 3-2 109.9 110.9 109.1 110.0
Northwestern 1-0 5-0 108.7 109.6 108.9 109.1
Iowa 1-0 5-0 106.4 109.5 107.3 107.7
Nebraska 0-1 2-3 108.9 106.2 108.1 107.7
Illinois 1-0 4-1 106.9 104.4 105.7 105.7
Minnesota 0-1 3-2 105.0 103.5 104.2 104.2
Purdue 0-1 1-4 99.3 98.9 98.1 98.8
             
Big Ten Averages     107.0 105.6 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 2-0 4-1 104.8 104.1 106.3 105.1
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-3 98.3 97.3 97.9 97.8
Marshall 1-0 4-1 95.1 95.6 95.4 95.4
Florida International 0-1 2-3 88.4 90.8 90.0 89.7
Florida Atlantic 1-0 2-3 81.7 85.7 82.1 83.2
Old Dominion 0-1 2-3 76.5 82.2 75.4 78.0
Charlotte 0-2 2-3 69.2 71.3 69.1 69.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-2 101.6 99.7 102.7 101.3
Southern Mississippi 1-0 3-2 89.6 90.5 89.3 89.8
Rice 1-1 2-3 83.9 87.6 84.3 85.3
UT-San Antonio 1-0 1-4 80.6 83.8 82.0 82.1
UTEP 0-1 2-3 79.2 81.8 78.8 79.9
North Texas 0-2 0-4 74.9 80.6 75.0 76.8
             
CUSA Averages     86.4 88.5 86.8 87.3
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   4-1 123.0 119.4 123.3 121.9
BYU   3-2 105.1 103.6 105.9 104.9
Army   1-4 81.0 91.6 82.9 85.2
             
Independents Averages     103.0 104.9 104.0 104.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 1-0 3-2 96.8 101.1 98.6 98.8
Ohio 1-0 4-1 93.2 97.6 94.9 95.2
Massachusetts 0-0 1-3 88.5 91.9 90.3 90.2
Akron 0-1 2-3 85.5 91.8 87.2 88.2
Buffalo 0-1 2-3 84.1 91.3 86.6 87.3
Kent St. 1-0 2-3 83.3 86.1 84.0 84.5
Miami (O) 0-1 1-4 75.3 80.4 75.4 77.0
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 1-0 4-0 101.5 100.2 102.8 101.5
Western Michigan 0-0 1-3 96.0 95.3 97.2 96.2
Northern Illinois 0-1 2-3 92.7 95.5 93.0 93.7
Central Michigan 1-0 2-3 86.9 90.9 89.0 88.9
Ball St. 1-1 2-3 85.9 88.6 87.0 87.2
Eastern Michigan 0-1 1-4 74.7 84.2 74.3 77.7
             
MAC Averages     88.0 91.9 89.3 89.7
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 1-0 4-1 117.1 112.0 117.0 115.4
Utah St. 1-0 2-2 96.8 95.3 96.9 96.3
Air Force 1-0 2-2 93.7 98.7 93.4 95.3
Colorado St. 0-1 2-3 93.5 91.4 91.9 92.3
New Mexico 1-0 3-2 90.1 90.8 89.2 90.0
Wyoming 0-1 0-5 78.4 80.4 77.0 78.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 2-3 93.9 99.2 94.8 96.0
San Jose St. 1-1 2-3 94.3 97.5 94.7 95.5
Nevada 0-1 2-3 89.0 93.0 88.4 90.1
Hawaii 0-1 2-3 88.0 89.9 88.2 88.7
Fresno St. 0-2 1-4 84.8 90.6 83.1 86.2
UNLV 1-0 2-3 82.2 84.6 83.1 83.3
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.5 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 3-0 4-1 121.2 120.0 121.2 120.8
Oregon 1-1 3-2 118.6 111.3 118.0 116.0
California 2-0 5-0 116.7 111.6 116.6 115.0
Washington 0-1 2-2 104.0 102.0 104.5 103.5
Washington St. 0-1 2-2 99.6 94.7 98.3 97.5
Oregon St. 0-1 2-2 93.0 91.4 92.1 92.2
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 1-1 3-1 124.9 121.5 125.3 123.9
Utah 1-0 4-0 125.7 119.9 125.1 123.6
UCLA 1-1 4-1 121.5 115.0 119.3 118.6
Arizona St. 1-1 3-2 115.3 110.3 114.2 113.3
Arizona 0-2 3-2 110.1 102.9 107.9 107.0
Colorado 0-1 3-2 105.7 100.9 104.8 103.8
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.5 112.3 111.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-1 4-1 121.3 113.8 120.4 118.5
Tennessee 0-2 2-3 118.7 114.1 118.1 117.0
Florida 3-0 5-0 116.9 113.6 116.8 115.8
Missouri 1-1 4-1 110.7 107.8 110.0 109.5
South Carolina 0-3 2-3 106.9 103.3 105.2 105.1
Kentucky 2-1 4-1 105.8 102.4 105.1 104.4
Vanderbilt 0-2 2-3 100.9 95.8 100.5 99.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 1-1 4-1 127.4 125.3 126.8 126.5
Ole Miss 2-1 4-1 124.4 117.8 122.3 121.5
LSU 2-0 4-0 122.0 118.6 121.6 120.7
Texas A&M 2-0 5-0 120.9 118.7 120.0 119.9
Arkansas 1-1 2-3 118.2 112.4 117.4 116.0
Mississippi St. 1-2 3-2 114.3 110.3 114.2 112.9
Auburn 0-2 3-2 113.3 111.1 112.1 112.2
             
SEC Averages     115.8 111.8 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 3-1 95.6 99.1 97.6 97.4
Georgia Southern 2-0 4-1 96.0 98.3 96.8 97.0
Arkansas St. 1-0 2-3 88.6 88.5 89.3 88.8
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-3 82.6 86.0 82.6 83.7
Texas St. 0-0 1-3 81.2 85.1 80.9 82.4
UL-Monroe 0-1 1-3 81.9 79.1 81.5 80.8
South Alabama 1-0 3-2 76.1 83.2 77.9 79.1
Troy 0-1 1-3 74.6 75.0 76.1 75.2
Georgia St. 1-0 1-3 75.4 74.1 75.1 74.9
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-4 73.9 75.2 74.1 74.4
Idaho 0-2 1-4 70.7 78.2 72.0 73.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.5 83.8 82.2 82.5

This Week’s Spreads

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, October 8        
Houston SMU 18.3 22.6 21.2
USC Washington 23.9 22.5 23.8
         
Friday, October 9        
Marshall Southern Miss. 8.5 8.1 9.1
Virginia Tech North Carolina St. 2.9 -0.8 4.1
         
Saturday, October 10        
Army Duke -22.2 -11.3 -20.9
Ole Miss New Mexico St. 53.5 45.6 51.2
LSU South Carolina 17.6 17.8 18.9
Florida Int’l UTEP 11.7 11.5 13.7
Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 9.0 9.3 10.9
Iowa Illinois 2.5 8.1 4.6
Kansas Baylor -44.8 -47.4 -48.0
Texas (N) Oklahoma -18.5 -18.3 -19.6
Ohio St. Maryland 39.8 34.9 42.2
Penn St. Indiana 8.4 9.8 8.4
Temple Tulane 20.5 19.9 22.9
Western Michigan Central Michigan 11.1 6.4 10.2
Pittsburgh Virginia 7.0 11.5 9.2
Ohio Miami (O) 19.9 19.2 21.5
Bowling Green Massachusetts 10.8 11.7 10.8
Florida Atlantic Rice 0.3 0.6 0.3
Boston College Wake Forest 8.8 9.3 8.2
Eastern Michigan Akron -8.8 -5.6 -10.9
Toledo Kent St. 20.2 16.1 20.8
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -18.2 -23.0 -20.5
Northern Illinois Ball St. 9.3 9.4 8.5
Clemson Georgia Tech 0.9 4.8 1.8
Tennessee Georgia 0.4 3.3 0.7
South Florida Syracuse -4.4 -1.8 -4.3
Notre Dame Navy 26.4 19.4 26.2
Michigan Northwestern 11.6 7.0 11.2
Nebraska Wisconsin 2.0 -1.7 2.0
Purdue Minnesota -3.2 -2.1 -3.6
Texas Tech Iowa St. 17.9 12.0 18.6
Central Florida Connecticut 7.1 5.0 7.3
Arizona Oregon St. 20.1 14.5 18.8
Mississippi St. Troy 42.7 38.3 41.1
Oregon Washington St. 22.0 19.6 22.7
Tulsa Louisiana-Monroe 12.0 20.6 13.7
Colorado St. Boise St. -20.6 -17.6 -22.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Texas St. 3.9 3.4 4.2
Nevada New Mexico 1.4 4.7 1.7
Alabama Arkansas 12.2 15.9 12.4
Texas-San Antonio Louisiana Tech -18.5 -13.6 -18.2
West Virginia Oklahoma St. 6.3 2.7 5.5
Kansas St. TCU -16.2 -18.3 -18.4
Missouri Florida -3.2 -2.8 -3.8
BYU East Carolina 12.8 8.0 12.0
Florida St. Miami (Fl.) 8.9 9.0 7.2
Rutgers Michigan St. -16.6 -15.8 -18.1
UNLV San Jose St. -9.6 -10.4 -9.1
Arizona St. Colorado 12.6 12.4 12.4
Utah California 12.0 11.3 11.5
Air Force Wyoming 17.3 20.3 18.4
Fresno St. Utah St. -9.5 -2.2 -11.3
Hawaii San Diego St. -1.9 -5.3 -2.6
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 6 PiRate    
North Texas Portland St. -7    

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Temple vs. UL-Lafayette
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Oregon vs. Boise St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Cincinnati vs. Marshall
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Miami (FL) * vs. Ohio U
Poinsettia MWC Army San Diego St. vs. Minnesota *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Toledo vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Western Kentucky vs. Bowling Green
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. BYU
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA East Carolina vs. Florida Int’l.
Sun ACC Pac-12 Duke vs. Arizona St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Western Mich. * vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse vs. Wisconsin
Independence SEC ACC Mississippi St. vs. N. Carolina St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nebraska vs. California
Military ACC AAC Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Illinois vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. West Virginia
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Missouri
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Middle Tennessee *
Belk ACC SEC Louisville vs. Florida
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Kentucky
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Baylor vs. Notre Dame
Cotton Playoff Playoff Stanford vs. LSU
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Michigan
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. UCLA
Ouback Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Ole Miss
Sugar Big 12 SEC Alabama vs. TCU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Utah
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Oklahoma vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC North Carolina vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Tennessee
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. USC
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Boston College * vs. San Jose St. *
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Stanford vs. Michigan
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

September 22, 2015

College Football Preview: September 24-26, 2015

It was an interesting Week 3 in the college football world with Ole Miss topping off an incredible day by topping Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  Ohio State and TCU looked very beatable in narrow wins over Northern Illinois and SMU, while Georgia and Notre Dame pulled off convincing wins.

We start to ruminate about the playoff teams for this year, and you will see our first look at who we believe are the leaders in the clubhouse.  One of our readers, Gary in Toronto, has sent us a comment asking who we believe would have been the four playoff teams in recent years before the playoffs were real.  Gary, we did this one better.  We calculated who we thought would have made the playoffs all the way back to 1969, when we first began compiling ratings.

What follows is not who WE thought should have been in the playoffs; this is who we believe the COMMITTEE of the time period would have selected based on the same criteria they use today, plus our personal belief that politics do play a part.  Thus, deserving undefeated teams like Miami of Ohio and Toledo in the 1970’s, and maybe even Dartmouth in 1970 would have been excluded for one and two-loss teams from the power leagues.  For you trivia buffs, Dartmouth was actually a ranked team in 1970, the last Ivy League team to finish the season ranked in the then top 20 (Yale was the last Ivy League team to appear in the weekly rankings in 1972).

Here they are:

2013: 1-Florida St.,  2-Auburn,  3-Michigan St., 4-Alabama
2012: 1-Alabama, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Oregon, 4-Stanford
2011: 1-LSU, 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma St., 4-Oregon
2010: 1-Auburn, 2-Oregon, 3-TCU, 4-Stanford
2009: 1-Alabama, 2-Texas, 3-Florida, 4-Boise St.
2008: 1-Florida, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Utah
2007: 1-LSU, 2-Ohio St., 3-Kansas, 4-West Virginia
2006: 1-Ohio St., 2-Florida, 3-Michigan, 4-USC
2005: 1-Texas, 2-USC, 3-Penn St., 4-Virginia Tech
2004: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Auburn, 4-Utah
2003: 1-LSU, 2-Oklahoma, 3-USC, 4-Michigan
2002: 1-Ohio St., 2-Miami, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
2001: 1-Miami, 2-Nebraska, 3-Oregon, 4-Colorado
2000: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Florida St., 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1999: 1-Florida St., 2-Virginia Tech, 3-Nebraska, 4-Kansas St.
1998: 1-Tennessee. 2-Florida St., 3-Ohio St., 4-Kansas St.
1997: 1-Nebraska, 2-Michigan, 3-Florida St., 4-Tennessee
1996: 1-Florida St., 2-Florida, 3-Ohio St., 4-Arizona St.
1995: 1-Nebraska, 2-Florida, 3-Tennessee, 4-Ohio St.
1994: 1-Nebraska, 2-Penn St., 3-Miami, 4-Colorado
1993: 1-Florida St., 2-Notre Dame, 3-West Virginia, 4-Nebraska
1992: 1-Alabama. 2-Miami, 3-Texas A&M, 4-Florida St.
1991: 1-Miami, 2-Washington, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1990: 1: Georgia Tech, 2-Colorado, 3-Miami, 4-Washington
1989: 1-Miami, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Colorado, 4-Tennessee
1988: 1-Notre Dame, 2-West Virginia, 3-Miami, 4-Florida St.
1987: 1-Miami, 2-Oklahoma 3-Florida St., 4-Syracuse
1986: 1-Miami, 2-Penn St., 3-Oklahoma, 4-Michigan
1985: 1-Oklahoma, 2-Penn St., 3-Michigan, 4-Miami
1984: 1-BYU, 2-Washington, 3-Nebraska, 4-Boston College
1983: 1-Nebraska, 2-Texas, 3-Miami, 4-Auburn
1982: 1-Georgia, 2-Penn St., 3-Nebraska, 4-SMU
1981: 1-Clemson, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Georgia, 4-Penn St.
1980: 1-Georgia, 2-Pittsburgh, 3-Notre Dame, 4-Nebraska
1979: 1-Alabama, 2-USC, 3-Ohio St., 4-Oklahoma
1978: 1-Penn St., 2-USC, 3-Alabama, 4-Oklahoma
1977: 1-Texas, 2-Notre Dame, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1976: 1-Pittsburgh, 2-Michigan, 3-Georgia, 4-USC
1975: 1-Ohio St., 2-Alabama, 3-Oklahoma, 4-Arizona St.
1974: 1-Alabama, 2-Ohio St., 3-USC, 4-Michigan
1973: 1-Notre Dame, 2-Alabama, 3-Penn St., 4-Ohio St.
1972: 1-USC, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Texas, 4-Michigan
1971: 1-Nebraska, 2-Oklahoma, 3-Alabama, 4-Michigan
1970: 1-Texas, 2-Nebraska, 3-Tennessee, 4-Notre Dame
1969: 1-Texas, 2-Penn St., 3-USC, 4-Missouri

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 133.4 124.0 134.3 130.6
2 Ole Miss 130.2 123.8 128.8 127.6
3 LSU 125.8 121.8 125.6 124.4
4 TCU 127.4 117.2 128.5 124.4
5 Alabama 125.0 123.3 124.6 124.3
6 Baylor 123.7 119.8 124.2 122.6
7 Notre Dame 123.4 119.4 123.9 122.2
8 Georgia 124.4 116.8 123.7 121.6
9 USC 121.5 118.2 121.9 120.5
10 Oklahoma 121.1 118.4 121.4 120.3
11 Georgia Tech 123.0 115.0 122.6 120.2
12 Oregon 122.8 114.8 122.2 119.9
13 UCLA 122.6 116.1 120.5 119.7
14 Texas A&M 120.4 118.6 119.4 119.5
15 Michigan St. 121.2 115.3 121.1 119.2
16 Tennessee 120.6 116.4 120.4 119.1
17 Stanford 118.4 117.2 118.6 118.1
18 California 118.1 113.1 118.6 116.6
19 Auburn 116.9 114.9 115.9 115.9
20 Clemson 115.3 116.5 115.2 115.7
21 Utah 117.8 112.1 117.0 115.6
22 Arkansas 117.4 111.1 116.3 114.9
23 Florida St. 114.9 115.3 113.6 114.6
24 Virginia Tech 115.4 111.8 115.8 114.3
25 North Carolina 113.7 113.7 113.3 113.6
26 West Virginia 115.0 109.6 114.4 113.0
27 Oklahoma St. 112.0 112.6 112.7 112.4
28 Arizona St. 114.7 109.4 113.2 112.4
29 Arizona 114.9 107.8 113.0 111.9
30 Mississippi St. 113.4 108.9 113.4 111.9
31 Michigan 112.8 108.9 112.1 111.3
32 Wisconsin 111.2 112.0 110.2 111.1
33 Florida 111.8 108.4 111.2 110.5
34 Missouri 111.4 108.5 110.5 110.1
35 Boise St. 112.2 106.7 111.5 110.1
36 Nebraska 110.9 108.3 110.5 109.9
37 North Carolina St. 109.3 111.4 108.3 109.7
38 Miami 109.0 109.9 109.4 109.4
39 BYU 108.9 107.0 110.3 108.7
40 Minnesota 109.3 107.5 109.1 108.6
41 Temple 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
42 Louisville 107.2 109.8 107.4 108.1
43 Texas Tech 111.0 101.6 110.8 107.8
44 Northwestern 106.8 107.8 106.8 107.1
45 Penn St. 105.7 107.8 105.9 106.5
46 Texas 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
47 Illinois 107.2 104.8 106.2 106.1
48 Memphis 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
49 South Carolina 107.3 103.6 105.8 105.6
50 Kentucky 106.3 102.9 105.6 104.9
51 Pittsburgh 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
52 Kansas St. 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
53 Colorado 105.8 101.5 105.1 104.1
54 Washington 103.7 101.9 104.1 103.2
55 Iowa 101.8 104.7 102.5 103.0
56 Duke 102.4 103.0 103.0 102.8
57 Cincinnati 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
58 Boston College 101.2 106.1 99.5 102.3
59 Virginia 103.0 100.1 102.5 101.9
60 Houston 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
61 Western Kentucky 100.9 98.5 102.0 100.5
62 Louisiana Tech 101.3 98.2 102.1 100.5
63 Navy 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
64 Toledo 99.7 97.7 100.6 99.3
65 Middle Tennessee 98.3 98.0 98.0 98.1
66 Purdue 98.8 98.2 96.8 97.9
67 Bowling Green 95.3 99.8 97.4 97.5
68 Wake Forest 95.5 100.2 94.5 96.7
69 Air Force 94.7 99.9 94.5 96.4
70 Rutgers 98.0 94.9 96.1 96.3
71 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
72 Marshall 95.8 95.6 96.4 95.9
73 Vanderbilt 98.2 92.2 97.1 95.8
74 San Diego St. 93.7 98.9 94.7 95.8
75 Syracuse 94.4 98.7 93.8 95.6
76 Georgia Southern 94.5 96.6 95.0 95.4
77 Utah St. 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
78 Indiana 94.8 96.4 94.6 95.3
79 Northern Illinois 94.2 96.8 94.6 95.2
80 Western Michigan 94.6 95.1 95.5 95.1
81 Colorado St. 96.3 93.8 94.8 95.0
82 Maryland 95.3 93.0 94.2 94.2
83 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
84 Tulsa 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
85 Ohio 91.5 96.4 93.2 93.7
86 Appalachian St. 92.0 95.0 94.1 93.7
87 Hawaii 91.8 94.0 92.4 92.7
88 Nevada 91.4 95.3 90.9 92.5
89 Oregon St. 92.8 91.1 91.7 91.9
90 East Carolina 90.0 94.5 90.1 91.5
91 Central Florida 89.4 93.2 90.8 91.1
92 Florida International 89.3 92.1 91.2 90.9
93 San Jose St. 90.2 92.9 89.5 90.9
94 Arkansas St. 90.5 90.3 91.5 90.8
95 New Mexico 90.6 91.4 90.0 90.7
96 Fresno St. 88.1 95.1 87.4 90.2
97 South Florida 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
98 Rice 87.8 92.6 88.6 89.7
99 SMU 88.1 92.0 88.2 89.4
100 Massachusetts 87.5 91.1 89.1 89.2
101 Tulane 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
102 Buffalo 83.8 91.3 86.4 87.2
103 UL-Lafayette 85.3 89.4 85.7 86.8
104 Southern Mississippi 86.5 87.0 85.5 86.3
105 Ball St. 84.9 87.8 85.8 86.2
106 Akron 83.0 89.5 84.4 85.6
107 Central Michigan 83.0 88.9 84.9 85.6
108 Texas St. 83.8 87.6 83.5 85.0
109 Kent St. 83.2 86.0 83.9 84.4
110 Connecticut 81.8 87.9 82.0 83.9
111 Florida Atlantic 82.0 86.2 82.6 83.6
112 Old Dominion 80.7 88.0 79.8 82.8
113 UTEP 81.8 84.8 81.6 82.7
114 North Texas 79.9 86.4 80.4 82.2
115 South Alabama 77.9 85.7 79.7 81.1
116 Army 76.9 87.6 78.2 80.9
117 UL-Monroe 81.7 78.3 81.0 80.3
118 UNLV 79.2 81.6 79.9 80.2
119 Miami (O) 76.6 83.0 76.7 78.8
120 UT-San Antonio 77.2 80.7 78.3 78.7
121 Eastern Michigan 75.0 84.9 75.0 78.3
122 Wyoming 78.0 80.0 76.2 78.1
123 Kansas 78.9 72.6 76.6 76.0
124 Troy 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
125 Georgia St. 75.7 74.5 75.4 75.2
126 New Mexico St. 73.6 74.8 73.5 74.0
127 Idaho 70.6 79.1 72.1 73.9
128 Charlotte 69.0 71.0 68.5 69.5

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 3-0 107.2 109.4 108.5 108.4
Cincinnati 0-1 2-1 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.5
East Carolina 0-1 1-2 90.0 94.5 90.1 91.5
Central Florida 0-0 0-3 89.4 93.2 90.8 91.1
South Florida 0-0 1-2 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
Connecticut 0-0 2-1 81.8 87.9 82.0 83.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 3-0 105.2 105.1 106.7 105.7
Houston 0-0 2-0 97.7 105.8 100.4 101.3
Navy 1-0 2-0 98.3 101.4 98.8 99.5
Tulsa 0-0 2-1 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
SMU 0-0 1-2 88.1 92.0 88.2 89.4
Tulane 0-0 1-2 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
             
AAC Averages     93.9 97.9 94.6 95.5
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 3-0 115.3 116.5 115.2 115.7
Florida St. 1-0 3-0 114.9 115.3 113.6 114.6
North Carolina St. 0-0 3-0 109.3 111.4 108.3 109.7
Louisville 0-1 0-3 107.2 109.8 107.4 108.1
Boston College 0-1 2-1 101.2 106.1 99.5 102.3
Wake Forest 0-1 2-1 95.5