The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 15, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tulane

Houston

7.1

6.3

4.7

 

Friday

September 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

La. Tech

Florida Int’l.

3.9

3.8

3.6

USC

Utah

-6.3

-3.8

-6.1

Boise St.

Air Force

10.8

9.0

10.4

 

Saturday

September 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida

Tennessee

16.0

13.6

16.9

Indiana

Connecticut

35.9

29.9

35.8

Rutgers

Boston College

-5.2

-5.0

-6.0

Syracuse

Western Mich.

6.2

6.6

5.8

Alabama

Southern Miss.

43.5

42.0

44.3

Iowa St.

UL-Monroe

22.3

21.8

21.9

Northwestern

Michigan St.

-3.7

-4.1

-5.0

Ole Miss

California

-2.4

-3.0

-4.6

Vanderbilt

LSU

-21.1

-19.5

-21.0

Wisconsin

Michigan

0.5

2.3

0.1

Massachusetts

Coastal Car.

-13.5

-12.2

-13.4

Ohio

Louisiana

3.7

2.4

5.6

Akron

Troy

-14.3

-14.3

-13.6

Buffalo

Temple

-15.1

-13.4

-15.5

Florida St.

Louisville

9.4

10.1

9.9

North Carolina

Appy St.

-0.4

2.1

1.6

Ohio St.

Miami (O)

40.6

40.8

40.9

Pittsburgh

Central Fla.

-3.1

-2.6

-4.9

TCU

SMU

4.3

8.2

3.9

Texas A&M

Auburn

5.0

5.3

4.6

Tulsa

Wyoming

0.0

-1.8

0.1

UAB

S. Alabama

12.0

10.4

13.6

BYU

Washington

-8.3

-7.7

-9.2

Kent St.

Bowling Green

11.4

11.5

11.7

Miami (Fla.)

Central Mich.

35.7

33.8

36.6

Mississippi St.

Kentucky

10.0

6.9

10.7

Missouri

South Carolina

5.7

4.7

6.0

Kansas

West Virginia

-5.7

-4.3

-5.5

New Mexico

New Mexico St.

6.4

7.5

6.1

N. Carolina St.

Ball St.

18.8

19.3

19.7

Virginia

Old Dominion

32.6

32.7

32.5

Rice

Baylor

-31.7

-30.5

-32.3

Stanford

Oregon

-8.2

-9.2

-9.5

Texas St.

Georgia St.

-0.5

-0.9

0.4

Clemson

Charlotte

48.5

44.4

48.8

Arkansas

San Jose St.

18.6

17.4

18.9

North Texas

UTSA

18.1

15.0

19.3

Texas

Oklahoma St.

5.1

4.5

5.3

Georgia

Notre Dame

9.3

9.6

9.7

Illinois

Nebraska

-6.4

-6.9

-7.0

UTEP

Nevada

-21.9

-18.1

-21.3

Arizona St.

Colorado

10.6

9.8

11.1

Colorado St.

Toledo

-9.1

-5.3

-10.4

San Diego St.

Utah St.

-5.4

-2.2

-6.9

Washington St.

UCLA

16.8

16.4

18.3

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Army

Morgan St.

41

Wake Forest

Elon

30

Eastern Michigan

Central Conn.

31

Florida Atlantic

Wagner

35

Liberty

Hampton

29

East Carolina

William & Mary

16

Arkansas St.

Southern Illinois

22

Fresno St.

Sacramento St.

30

Hawaii

Central Arkansas

20

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

135.9

132.3

137.0

135.0

2

Clemson

134.5

131.2

135.4

133.7

3

Ohio St.

128.7

127.1

129.2

128.3

4

Georgia

127.5

125.8

128.1

127.1

5

L S U

126.0

123.3

124.8

124.7

6

Oklahoma

122.3

121.4

122.2

122.0

7

Notre Dame

121.2

119.2

121.4

120.6

8

Michigan

119.6

117.5

119.9

119.0

9

Florida

119.9

117.1

119.1

118.7

10

Texas A&M

119.4

117.8

118.3

118.5

11

Wisconsin

117.1

116.8

117.0

117.0

12

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

13

Auburn

117.4

115.5

116.8

116.6

14

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

15

Michigan St.

116.1

115.6

116.3

116.0

16

Penn St.

116.4

115.3

116.0

115.9

17

Iowa

115.7

113.7

115.8

115.0

18

Missouri

114.9

112.3

115.0

114.1

19

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

20

Mississippi St.

115.0

110.7

114.4

113.4

21

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

22

Central Florida

112.1

111.3

113.5

112.3

23

Texas

112.3

112.3

112.2

112.3

24

Baylor

111.9

112.1

111.6

111.9

25

Kansas St.

111.8

111.5

111.8

111.7

26

South Carolina

112.2

110.6

112.0

111.6

27

Miami (Fla.)

110.4

109.5

111.5

110.5

28

Oklahoma St.

110.2

110.9

109.9

110.3

29

Iowa St.

110.2

110.4

109.9

110.2

30

Northwestern

109.9

109.0

108.8

109.2

31

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

32

Minnesota

109.4

108.7

108.0

108.7

33

Maryland

109.1

108.5

108.3

108.6

34

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

35

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

36

Kentucky

108.0

106.8

106.7

107.2

37

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

38

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

39

T C U

105.2

108.8

105.7

106.6

40

Utah St.

106.3

105.1

107.7

106.3

41

Indiana

107.3

105.4

106.0

106.2

42

Tennessee

106.8

106.5

105.2

106.2

43

Boise St.

106.1

105.4

106.4

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

105.6

105.7

45

Purdue

105.5

105.5

105.0

105.3

46

Texas Tech

105.6

105.8

104.6

105.3

47

Memphis

105.0

104.8

106.1

105.3

48

Duke

105.2

104.7

105.1

105.0

49

Syracuse

105.2

104.6

105.0

104.9

50

Cincinnati

105.1

103.5

105.2

104.6

51

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

52

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

53

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.3

104.4

104.3

54

Wake Forest

103.9

103.4

104.5

103.9

55

Virginia Tech

103.4

103.6

103.7

103.6

56

North Carolina

102.8

103.4

104.0

103.4

57

Temple

103.3

102.3

104.5

103.4

58

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

59

Vanderbilt

103.4

102.2

102.3

102.6

60

North Carolina St.

102.4

102.3

102.9

102.5

61

Florida St.

102.4

102.7

102.2

102.5

62

BYU

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.4

63

SMU

102.0

101.5

102.8

102.1

64

Western Michigan

102.0

100.9

102.2

101.7

65

Ole Miss

102.3

101.5

101.3

101.7

66

Army

101.5

101.6

101.1

101.4

67

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.9

100.6

68

Tulane

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

69

Fresno St.

100.0

100.6

100.7

100.4

70

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

71

Air Force

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.9

72

San Diego St.

97.9

99.8

97.8

98.5

73

Arkansas

98.3

99.2

97.7

98.4

74

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

75

Houston

96.1

97.3

98.9

97.4

76

Illinois

97.2

98.1

96.2

97.2

77

Ohio

96.6

95.6

97.9

96.7

78

Wyoming

95.4

97.6

96.0

96.3

79

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

80

Georgia Southern

96.4

95.7

95.8

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

82

Louisiana

95.9

96.2

95.3

95.8

83

Louisville

96.1

95.7

95.3

95.7

84

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

85

Georgia Tech

95.7

93.8

96.2

95.2

86

Southern Miss.

95.4

93.2

95.7

94.8

87

Troy

94.5

94.7

93.4

94.2

88

Marshall

93.4

92.9

94.6

93.6

89

Northern Illinois

93.7

92.6

93.8

93.4

90

North Texas

92.8

92.1

93.7

92.9

91

Tulsa

92.4

92.9

93.1

92.8

92

Toledo

92.1

92.3

93.2

92.5

93

Rutgers

92.3

92.3

91.9

92.2

94

Nevada

91.3

93.0

91.1

91.8

95

South Florida

91.0

92.0

91.3

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

97

Louisiana-Monroe

90.8

91.6

91.0

91.1

98

Eastern Michigan

90.7

91.1

91.4

91.1

99

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.7

91.0

90.9

100

Navy

89.8

92.8

89.6

90.8

101

Florida Atlantic

90.4

89.7

91.1

90.4

102

Middle Tennessee

90.4

89.5

90.5

90.1

103

Florida Int’l.

89.6

89.3

89.9

89.6

104

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.3

90.4

89.6

105

Liberty

88.5

89.7

88.9

89.0

106

Charlotte

88.1

88.8

88.6

88.5

107

Western Kentucky

86.3

87.0

87.6

86.9

108

U A B

85.7

87.4

86.3

86.5

109

Ball St.

86.6

86.0

86.1

86.2

110

Buffalo

85.8

86.4

86.5

86.2

111

Georgia St.

85.9

87.2

84.9

86.0

112

U N L V

84.9

87.0

84.9

85.6

113

Kent St.

85.3

85.2

85.6

85.4

114

Coastal Carolina

84.1

85.3

83.2

84.2

115

Texas St.

82.9

83.8

82.8

83.2

116

San Jose St.

82.8

84.8

81.9

83.2

117

New Mexico

82.2

85.5

81.4

83.1

118

East Carolina

82.2

84.3

81.7

82.7

119

Colorado St.

79.9

84.0

79.8

81.2

120

Rice

78.7

80.1

77.8

78.9

121

Central Michigan

77.8

78.7

77.9

78.1

122

Old Dominion

77.8

78.2

78.0

78.0

123

Akron

77.7

78.0

77.3

77.6

124

Texas-San Antonio

76.7

79.2

76.4

77.4

125

New Mexico St.

76.8

79.0

76.4

77.4

126

South Alabama

75.2

78.5

74.2

76.0

127

Bowling Green

75.9

75.7

75.9

75.9

128

Connecticut

74.4

78.5

73.2

75.4

129

U T E P

66.9

72.4

67.3

68.8

130

Massachusetts

68.1

70.6

67.3

68.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

112.1

111.3

113.5

112.3

0-0

3-0

Cincinnati

105.1

103.5

105.2

104.6

0-0

2-1

Temple

103.3

102.3

104.5

103.4

0-0

2-0

South Florida

91.0

92.0

91.3

91.4

0-0

1-2

East Carolina

82.2

84.3

81.7

82.7

0-1

1-2

Connecticut

74.4

78.5

73.2

75.4

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.0

104.8

106.1

105.3

0-0

3-0

SMU

102.0

101.5

102.8

102.1

0-0

3-0

Tulane

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

0-0

2-1

Houston

96.1

97.3

98.9

97.4

0-0

1-2

Tulsa

92.4

92.9

93.1

92.8

0-0

1-2

Navy

89.8

92.8

89.6

90.8

1-0

2-0

AAC Averages

96.1

96.8

96.7

96.6

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.5

131.2

135.4

133.7

2-0

3-0

Syracuse

105.2

104.6

105.0

104.9

0-1

1-2

Wake Forest

103.9

103.4

104.5

103.9

0-0

3-0

North Carolina St.

102.4

102.3

102.9

102.5

0-0

2-1

Florida St.

102.4

102.7

102.2

102.5

0-1

1-2

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.9

100.6

1-0

2-1

Louisville

96.1

95.7

95.3

95.7

0-0

2-1

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

110.4

109.5

111.5

110.5

0-1

1-2

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

2-0

3-0

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

105.6

105.7

0-1

1-2

Duke

105.2

104.7

105.1

105.0

0-0

2-1

Virginia Tech

103.4

103.6

103.7

103.6

0-1

2-1

North Carolina

102.8

103.4

104.0

103.4

1-0

2-1

Georgia Tech

95.7

93.8

96.2

95.2

0-1

1-2

ACC Averages

105.5

105.0

105.8

105.5

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.3

121.4

122.2

122.0

0-0

3-0

Texas

112.3

112.3

112.2

112.3

0-0

2-1

Baylor

111.9

112.1

111.6

111.9

0-0

2-0

Kansas St.

111.8

111.5

111.8

111.7

0-0

3-0

Oklahoma St.

110.2

110.9

109.9

110.3

0-0

3-0

Iowa St.

110.2

110.4

109.9

110.2

0-0

1-1

T C U

105.2

108.8

105.7

106.6

0-0

2-0

Texas Tech

105.6

105.8

104.6

105.3

0-0

2-1

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

0-0

2-1

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

0-0

2-1

Big 12 Averages

109.0

109.4

108.8

109.1

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

128.7

127.1

129.2

128.3

1-0

3-0

Michigan

119.6

117.5

119.9

119.0

0-0

2-0

Michigan St.

116.1

115.6

116.3

116.0

0-0

2-1

Penn St.

116.4

115.3

116.0

115.9

0-0

3-0

Maryland

109.1

108.5

108.3

108.6

0-0

2-1

Indiana

107.3

105.4

106.0

106.2

0-1

2-1

Rutgers

92.3

92.3

91.9

92.2

0-1

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

117.1

116.8

117.0

117.0

0-0

2-0

Iowa

115.7

113.7

115.8

115.0

1-0

3-0

Northwestern

109.9

109.0

108.8

109.2

0-0

1-1

Minnesota

109.4

108.7

108.0

108.7

0-0

3-0

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

0-0

2-1

Purdue

105.5

105.5

105.0

105.3

0-0

1-2

Illinois

97.2

98.1

96.2

97.2

0-0

2-1

Big Ten Averages

110.8

110.1

110.3

110.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.4

92.9

94.6

93.6

0-0

2-1

Florida Atlantic

90.4

89.7

91.1

90.4

0-0

1-2

Middle Tennessee

90.4

89.5

90.5

90.1

0-0

1-2

Florida Int’l.

89.6

89.3

89.9

89.6

0-1

1-2

Charlotte

88.1

88.8

88.6

88.5

0-0

2-1

Western Kentucky

86.3

87.0

87.6

86.9

1-0

1-2

Old Dominion

77.8

78.2

78.0

78.0

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

95.4

93.2

95.7

94.8

0-0

2-1

North Texas

92.8

92.1

93.7

92.9

0-0

1-2

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.7

91.0

90.9

0-0

2-1

U A B

85.7

87.4

86.3

86.5

0-0

2-0

Rice

78.7

80.1

77.8

78.9

0-0

0-3

Texas-San Antonio

76.7

79.2

76.4

77.4

0-0

1-2

U T E P

66.9

72.4

67.3

68.8

0-0

1-1

CUSA Averages

85.9

86.5

86.3

86.2

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.2

119.2

121.4

120.6

x

2-0

BYU

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.4

x

2-1

Army

101.5

101.6

101.1

101.4

x

2-1

Liberty

88.5

89.7

88.9

89.0

x

1-2

New Mexico St.

76.8

79.0

76.4

77.4

x

0-3

Massachusetts

68.1

70.6

67.3

68.7

x

0-3

Indep. Averages

93.1

93.7

92.9

93.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.6

95.6

97.9

96.7

0-0

1-2

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.3

90.4

89.6

0-0

1-2

Buffalo

85.8

86.4

86.5

86.2

0-0

1-2

Kent St.

85.3

85.2

85.6

85.4

0-0

1-2

Akron

77.7

78.0

77.3

77.6

0-1

0-3

Bowling Green

75.9

75.7

75.9

75.9

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

102.0

100.9

102.2

101.7

0-0

2-1

Northern Illinois

93.7

92.6

93.8

93.4

0-0

1-2

Toledo

92.1

92.3

93.2

92.5

0-0

1-1

Eastern Michigan

90.7

91.1

91.4

91.1

0-0

2-1

Ball St.

86.6

86.0

86.1

86.2

0-0

1-2

Central Michigan

77.8

78.7

77.9

78.1

1-0

2-1

MAC Averages

87.9

87.6

88.2

87.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.3

105.1

107.7

106.3

0-0

1-1

Boise St.

106.1

105.4

106.4

106.0

0-0

3-0

Air Force

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.9

0-0

2-0

Wyoming

95.4

97.6

96.0

96.3

0-0

3-0

New Mexico

82.2

85.5

81.4

83.1

0-0

1-1

Colorado St.

79.9

84.0

79.8

81.2

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

100.0

100.6

100.7

100.4

0-0

0-2

San Diego St.

97.9

99.8

97.8

98.5

0-0

3-0

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

0-0

2-1

Nevada

91.3

93.0

91.1

91.8

0-0

2-1

U N L V

84.9

87.0

84.9

85.6

0-0

1-2

San Jose St.

82.8

84.8

81.9

83.2

0-0

1-1

MWC Averages

93.4

95.0

93.5

93.9

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

0-0

2-1

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

0-1

2-1

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

0-0

3-0

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

1-0

3-0

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

0-1

1-2

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

0-0

1-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-0

3-0

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

1-0

2-1

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

0-0

3-0

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

0-0

2-1

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

0-0

0-3

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.5

125.8

128.1

127.1

1-0

3-0

Florida

119.9

117.1

119.1

118.7

1-0

3-0

Missouri

114.9

112.3

115.0

114.1

0-0

2-1

South Carolina

112.2

110.6

112.0

111.6

0-1

1-2

Kentucky

108.0

106.8

106.7

107.2

0-1

2-1

Tennessee

106.8

106.5

105.2

106.2

0-0

1-2

Vanderbilt

103.4

102.2

102.3

102.6

0-1

0-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.9

132.3

137.0

135.0

1-0

3-0

L S U

126.0

123.3

124.8

124.7

0-0

3-0

Texas A&M

119.4

117.8

118.3

118.5

0-0

2-1

Auburn

117.4

115.5

116.8

116.6

0-0

3-0

Mississippi St.

115.0

110.7

114.4

113.4

0-0

2-1

Ole Miss

102.3

101.5

101.3

101.7

1-0

2-1

Arkansas

98.3

99.2

97.7

98.4

0-1

2-1

SEC Averages

114.8

113.0

114.2

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.3

104.4

104.3

0-0

2-0

Georgia Southern

96.4

95.7

95.8

96.0

0-0

1-2

Troy

94.5

94.7

93.4

94.2

0-0

1-1

Georgia St.

85.9

87.2

84.9

86.0

0-0

2-1

Coastal Carolina

84.1

85.3

83.2

84.2

0-0

2-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

95.9

96.2

95.3

95.8

0-0

2-1

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

0-0

1-2

Louisiana-Monroe

90.8

91.6

91.0

91.1

0-0

1-1

Texas St.

82.9

83.8

82.8

83.2

0-0

0-3

South Alabama

75.2

78.5

74.2

76.0

0-0

1-2

SBC Averages

90.2

90.8

89.6

90.2

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Once again this week, our fearless bowl projections show a lot of at-large teams needed to fill spots.  This week, the number is eight teams.  The Southeastern Conference is looking like an eight-bid league this year, and the league will most likely have 12 spots to fill.  With Alabama, Georgia, and LSU looking like teams that will play in New Year’s Six Bowls or Playoffs, and with Missouri not eligible for a bowl this year, there will probably be just five other bowl eligible teams in the premiere league in FBS Football.  Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky should become bowl eligible, but Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt don’t look like they have the strength to reach six wins.

The Big Ten might benefit by an extra bid if Indiana and Northwestern can get to 6-6.  Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue look like they could supply a little fodder for the other 11 teams to pick up conference wins and allow 11 to become bowl eligible, when only 10 teams will have guaranteed bowl spots.  It figures that if any Big Ten team remains with at-large bowl bids available, the Big Ten will be at the top of the at-large lists.

The Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt Conferences look like they will have extra bowl eligible teams this year, but at this point of the season, some of these teams may be bowl eligible but not get an invitations.

Here’s our look at the Bowls and Playoffs this week.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Houston

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Western Michigan]

Troy

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Northern Illinois

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Arizona

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

North Texas

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Charlotte

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

[Army]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Northwestern

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Maryland

Texas

Big 12

SEC

TCU

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

[Hawaii]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Central Florida

California

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Louisiana Tech

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Indiana]

Syracuse

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

[Wyoming]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Washington

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Auburn

Michigan St.

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

 

 

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Alabama

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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September 8, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 9, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:00 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday

September 13

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wake Forest (x)

North Carolina

2.0

0.5

0.8

Boston College

Kansas

15.2

13.8

16.4

Houston

Washington St.

-14.3

-12.3

-12.0

 

 

Saturday

September 14

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

Arkansas St.

34.6

32.3

35.2

Mississippi St.

Kansas St.

9.4

4.9

9.1

West Virginia

North Carolina St.

2.9

2.5

1.5

Penn St.

Pittsburgh

12.8

12.2

13.3

Illinois

Eastern Michigan

12.5

13.4

11.0

Indiana

Ohio St.

-11.3

-11.3

-12.9

Temple

Maryland

-4.7

-5.5

-2.5

Cincinnati

Miami (O)

15.9

16.0

15.3

Colorado

Air Force

3.6

2.2

3.1

Ball St.

Florida Atlantic

-0.1

0.4

-0.9

Notre Dame

New Mexico

40.1

35.2

40.6

Central Michigan

Akron

-1.3

-0.7

-1.2

South Carolina

Alabama

-20.5

-18.1

-21.4

Central Florida

Stanford

8.7

8.7

10.1

BYU

USC

-2.0

-3.3

-2.7

UTSA

Army

-22.9

-20.5

-23.1

Tulsa

Oklahoma St.

-16.6

-16.6

-15.2

Minnesota

Georgia Southern

17.7

17.9

17.2

Northwestern

UNLV

29.5

26.3

28.5

South Alabama

Memphis

-24.9

-20.8

-27.0

Navy

East Carolina

5.3

6.1

5.2

Arkansas

Colorado St.

20.7

17.2

19.6

Michigan St.

Arizona St.

14.8

15.4

14.8

Louisville (n)

Western Kentucky

8.5

7.1

5.7

Iowa St.

Iowa

-4.0

-1.4

-3.9

California

North Texas

19.7

20.5

20.4

Bowling Green

Lousiana Tech

-8.2

-7.9

-7.8

Liberty

Buffalo

2.3

2.7

1.2

Charlotte

Massachusetts

19.4

17.0

20.3

Troy

Southern Miss.

2.8

6.0

1.6

Marshall

Ohio

-0.4

0.3

-0.7

Auburn

Kent St.

34.3

31.8

33.2

Kentucky

Florida

-8.8

-7.1

-9.0

Middle Tennessee

Duke

-9.5

-9.8

-9.1

SMU

Texas St.

19.2

17.4

19.7

Western Michigan

Georgia St.

12.5

9.5

13.5

Washington

Hawaii

19.1

16.4

20.6

Syracuse

Clemson

-24.9

-21.7

-25.6

Virginia

Florida St.

9.0

9.2

9.4

Purdue

TCU

11.0

7.1

10.4

UCLA

Oklahoma

16.1

-15.4

-16.7

New Mexico St.

San Diego St.

-18.4

-18.2

-18.7

Rice (n)

Texas

-32.9

-31.1

-33.2

Nebraska

Northern Illinois

13.3

16.0

12.5

Arizona

Texas Tech

-3.8

-4.0

-2.6

 

(x) The North Carolina vs. Wake Forest game does not count as an Atlantic Coast Conference Game.  It is a non-conference game and will have no effect on the conference standings.

(n) The Rice and Texas game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.  Even though Rice is in Houston, we expect more Texas fans at this game and thus have it listed as no home field advantage for Rice.

The Louisville and Western Kentucky game will be played at Nissan Stadium in Nashville and is a true neutral site game.

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Tennessee

Chattanooga

24

Virginia Tech

Furman

26

Georgia Tech

The Citadel

31

Coastal Carolina

Norfolk St.

27

Ole Miss

SE Louisiana

26

Miami (Fla.)

Bethune-Cookman

36

Oregon St.

Cal Poly

16

Utah

Idaho St.

35

Wyoming

Idaho

28

South Florida

South Carolina St.

23

Texas A&M

Lamar

39

Nevada

Weber St.

13

Florida Int’l.

New Hampshire

16

Toledo

Murray St.

27

LSU

Northwestern St.

50

Missouri

SE Missouri St.

34

Louisiana

Texas Southern

39

Tulane

Missouri St.

28

Boise St.

Portland St.

34

Oregon

Montana

29

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.4

110.5

112.7

111.5

0-0

2-0

Cincinnati

104.8

103.1

104.7

104.2

0-0

1-1

Temple

102.6

101.4

103.9

102.6

0-0

1-0

South Florida

90.7

91.7

91.0

91.1

0-0

0-2

East Carolina

84.9

87.0

84.6

85.5

0-0

1-1

Connecticut

74.2

78.3

73.0

75.2

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

103.8

103.3

104.9

104.0

0-0

2-0

SMU

100.8

100.1

101.4

100.8

0-0

2-0

Tulane

98.9

99.3

99.3

99.2

0-0

1-1

Houston

95.8

97.0

98.5

97.1

0-0

1-1

Tulsa

92.5

93.1

93.4

93.0

0-0

1-1

Navy

87.1

90.1

86.7

88.0

0-0

1-0

AAC Averages

95.6

96.2

96.2

96.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

133.8

130.2

134.5

132.9

1-0

2-0

Syracuse

105.9

105.6

105.9

105.8

0-0

1-1

Boston College

104.8

104.5

105.5

104.9

1-0

2-0

North Carolina St.

103.5

103.5

104.3

103.8

0-0

2-0

Wake Forest

103.6

102.9

103.9

103.5

0-0

2-0

Florida St.

102.9

103.2

102.7

103.0

0-0

1-1

Louisville

95.5

94.9

94.3

94.9

0-0

1-1

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

109.4

108.5

110.5

109.5

0-1

0-2

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

1-0

2-0

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.3

105.2

105.4

0-1

1-1

Virginia Tech

104.6

104.8

104.9

104.8

0-1

1-1

North Carolina

103.1

103.9

104.6

103.9

1-0

2-0

Duke

103.7

103.1

103.4

103.4

0-0

1-1

Georgia Tech

99.0

97.1

99.5

98.5

0-1

1-1

ACC Averages

106.0

105.5

106.3

105.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

120.4

119.4

120.1

120.0

0-0

2-0

Texas

112.1

111.9

111.8

111.9

0-0

1-1

Baylor

111.6

111.8

111.3

111.6

0-0

2-0

Iowa St.

110.2

110.6

110.1

110.3

0-0

1-0

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.6

110.1

0-0

2-0

Kansas St.

110.1

110.0

109.9

110.0

0-0

2-0

Texas Tech

107.6

107.9

106.7

107.4

0-0

2-0

West Virginia

103.5

103.0

102.8

103.1

0-0

1-1

T C U

101.3

105.1

101.7

102.7

0-0

1-0

Kansas

92.6

93.7

92.1

92.8

0-0

1-1

Big 12 Averages

107.9

108.4

107.6

108.0

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

124.9

123.2

125.3

124.5

0-0

2-0

Michigan

119.3

117.2

119.6

118.7

0-0

2-0

Michigan St.

117.8

117.5

118.2

117.8

0-0

2-0

Penn St.

116.6

115.6

116.4

116.2

0-0

2-0

Indiana

110.6

108.8

109.4

109.6

0-0

2-0

Maryland

109.8

109.4

108.9

109.4

0-0

2-0

Rutgers

92.0

92.0

91.6

91.9

0-1

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

116.8

116.5

116.7

116.7

0-0

2-0

Iowa

115.2

113.0

115.1

114.4

1-0

2-0

Northwestern

110.9

109.9

109.9

110.2

0-0

0-1

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.3

109.9

0-0

2-0

Purdue

109.4

109.2

109.0

109.2

0-0

1-1

Nebraska

105.4

106.8

104.8

105.7

0-0

1-1

Illinois

98.7

99.8

97.8

98.8

0-0

2-0

Big Ten Averages

111.3

110.6

110.9

110.9

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.3

92.9

94.4

93.5

0-0

1-1

Middle Tennessee

91.6

90.8

91.9

91.4

0-0

1-1

Florida Int’l.

89.7

89.4

90.0

89.7

0-1

0-2

Florida Atlantic

89.8

88.9

90.3

89.7

0-0

0-2

Western Kentucky

86.9

87.8

88.6

87.7

1-0

1-1

Charlotte

86.8

87.2

87.1

87.0

0-0

1-1

Old Dominion

77.6

78.0

77.8

77.8

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.8

92.2

95.0

94.0

0-0

1-1

North Texas

91.7

90.9

92.4

91.7

0-0

1-1

Louisiana Tech

89.1

88.7

88.9

88.9

0-0

1-1

U A B

85.5

87.2

86.1

86.3

0-0

2-0

Rice

79.2

80.8

78.5

79.5

0-0

0-2

Texas-San Antonio

76.6

79.1

76.1

77.2

0-0

1-1

U T E P

66.7

72.2

67.1

68.6

0-0

1-1

CUSA Averages

85.7

86.2

86.0

85.9

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.4

118.6

120.4

119.8

x

1-0

BYU

102.2

102.1

102.2

102.2

x

1-1

Army

101.9

102.0

101.7

101.9

x

1-1

Liberty

86.9

88.0

86.9

87.2

x

0-2

New Mexico St.

76.9

79.1

76.5

77.5

x

0-2

Massachusetts

69.9

72.7

69.3

70.6

x

0-2

Indep. Averages

93.0

93.7

92.8

93.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.7

95.6

98.1

96.8

0-0

1-1

Miami (Ohio)

90.4

88.7

90.9

90.0

0-0

1-1

Buffalo

87.1

87.8

88.2

87.7

0-0

1-1

Kent St.

85.7

85.9

86.1

85.9

0-0

1-1

Akron

79.8

80.1

79.6

79.8

0-0

0-2

Bowling Green

77.8

77.7

78.0

77.9

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.2

96.8

98.3

97.8

0-0

1-1

Northern Illinois

95.0

93.8

95.3

94.7

0-0

1-1

Toledo

91.4

91.6

92.5

91.8

0-0

0-1

Eastern Michigan

89.2

89.4

89.8

89.5

0-0

1-1

Ball St.

87.2

86.8

86.9

87.0

0-0

1-1

Central Michigan

76.0

76.9

75.9

76.2

0-0

1-1

MAC Averages

87.9

87.6

88.3

87.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.1

104.9

107.5

106.1

0-0

1-1

Boise St.

106.0

105.3

106.3

105.9

0-0

2-0

Air Force

97.9

99.2

98.7

98.6

0-0

1-0

Wyoming

96.4

98.6

97.0

97.3

0-0

2-0

New Mexico

83.3

86.4

82.7

84.2

0-0

1-0

Colorado St.

80.5

84.8

80.7

82.0

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.8

100.4

100.5

100.2

0-0

0-2

San Diego St.

97.8

99.7

97.7

98.4

0-0

2-0

Hawaii

97.1

99.0

96.5

97.5

0-0

2-0

Nevada

91.4

93.1

91.2

91.9

0-0

1-1

U N L V

84.4

86.6

84.3

85.1

0-0

1-1

San Jose St.

82.6

84.6

81.7

83.0

0-0

1-1

MWC Averages

93.6

95.2

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.1

116.1

117.2

116.5

0-0

1-1

Washington St.

113.1

112.3

113.5

113.0

0-0

2-0

Washington

112.2

111.4

113.1

112.2

0-1

1-1

California

108.4

108.4

109.9

108.9

1-0

2-0

Stanford

106.2

105.3

106.1

105.9

0-1

1-1

Oregon St.

94.8

96.1

93.6

94.8

0-0

0-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-0

2-0

U S C

107.2

108.4

107.9

107.9

1-0

2-0

Arizona St.

106.0

105.0

106.4

105.8

0-0

2-0

U C L A

101.3

101.0

100.4

100.9

0-0

0-2

Arizona

100.8

100.9

101.0

100.9

0-0

1-1

Colorado

100.1

99.9

100.3

100.1

0-0

2-0

Pac-12 Averages

106.9

106.6

107.2

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

125.4

123.4

125.8

124.9

1-0

2-0

Florida

120.2

117.3

119.2

118.9

0-0

2-0

Missouri

114.4

111.8

114.5

113.6

0-0

1-1

South Carolina

112.3

110.9

112.3

111.8

0-0

1-1

Kentucky

108.3

107.2

107.2

107.6

0-0

2-0

Tennessee

106.3

106.0

104.7

105.7

0-0

0-2

Vanderbilt

103.1

101.9

102.0

102.3

0-1

0-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.8

132.0

136.7

134.8

0-0

2-0

L S U

125.9

123.2

124.7

124.6

0-0

2-0

Texas A&M

118.8

117.2

117.7

117.9

0-0

1-1

Auburn

117.0

114.8

116.3

116.0

0-0

2-0

Mississippi St.

116.4

111.9

116.0

114.8

0-0

2-0

Ole Miss

102.8

102.0

101.8

102.2

1-0

1-1

Arkansas

98.2

98.9

97.3

98.2

0-1

1-1

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.0

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.0

103.1

104.2

104.1

0-0

2-0

Georgia Southern

95.8

95.0

95.0

95.3

0-0

1-1

Troy

95.1

95.7

94.1

95.0

0-0

1-0

Georgia St.

88.7

90.3

87.8

88.9

0-0

2-0

Coastal Carolina

83.4

84.6

82.5

83.5

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

94.9

95.2

94.3

94.8

0-0

1-1

Arkansas St.

93.7

94.1

93.6

93.8

0-0

1-1

Louisiana-Monroe

90.6

91.4

90.8

90.9

0-0

1-1

Texas St.

84.1

85.2

84.2

84.5

0-0

0-2

South Alabama

76.4

80.0

75.4

77.3

0-0

1-1

SBC Averages

90.8

91.5

90.2

90.8

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.8

2

BTen

110.9

3

B12

108.0

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.9

6

AAC

96.0

7

MWC

94.2

8

Ind

93.2

9

SUN

90.8

10

MAC

87.9

11

CUSA

85.9

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Central Florida

2

Utah St.

3

Boise St.

4

Cincinnati

5

Appalachian St.

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

This week’s bowl projections finds an uncanny nine bowl spots needing at-large teams.  With Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina struggling, and with Missouri ineligible for a bowl, the SEC could field just eight bowl eligible teams.  Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Florida could all be in a NY6 bowl, which means the SEC could fall five teams short fulfilling their bowl agreements.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Houston

[Colorado]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Cincinnati

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Northern Illinois

Louisiana

Las Vegas

MWC

Pac-12

Boise St.

USC

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

North Texas

Troy

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

[Buffalo]

Charlotte

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

Hawaii

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Southern Miss.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Miami (Fla.)

Nebraska

Military

ACC

AAC

Syracuse

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Boston College

Maryland

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Central Florida

Georgia

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

UAB

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Western Michigan]

Virginia Tech

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

[Purdue]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

North Carolina St.

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Army]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

UL-Monroe

Wyoming

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

California

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Michigan St.

Texas A&M

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Kentucky

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

LSU

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

[Georgia Southern]

[Liberty]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Auburn

Michigan

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Indiana

Fresno St.

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Appalachian St.

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

 

 

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Alabama

Ohio St.

 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Heat on a Seat and Hot Coaches

Look all over the Internet, and listen all over sports talk radio this week, and you will hear about college football coaches on the way to unemployment. In Knoxville, Tennessee, the talk isn’t if second year Volunteer coach Jeremy Pruitt will be ousted at the end of the season, it’s whether he can make it to November. Pruitt doesn’t have the talent on either side of the ball to compete, and he should get more time to turn things around on Rocky Top, but the fans might not allow this to happen.

Making things a little worse for Pruitt, former coach Urban Meyer made statements about how the Volunteers should be a top 10 program. Might Meyer be already campaigning for this job as insurance in the event that Clay Helton builds on his 2-0 start at USC and keeps his job?

Willie Taggart was about to join Pruitt at the very hottest of the seats, but his Florida State Seminoles survived an overtime scare to beat Louisiana-Monroe. Playing at Virginia may be a tough pill for Seminole fans to swallow. If Florida State loses this game, that will make the Seminoles 6-9 in Taggart’s year and a quarter in Tallahassee. FSU could be headed to their worst back-to-back records since Darrell Mudra went 4-18 in 1974 and 1975.

Chip Kelly’s UCLA offense looks weaker than the end of the Karl Dorrell era in Westwood. Will the Bruin fans allow another year of this if UCLA falls to 6th in the South Division? Neither Cincinnati nor San Diego State are juggernauts, as the Bearcats fell 42-0 to Ohio State, while San Diego State had narrowly edged Weber State the week prior.

There three coaches appear to have the hottest seats in college football, but what about the opposite end of the equation? Which coaches are the hottest commodities at this point of the season? Who might be a head coach in 2020 at a bigger program than where he is now?

I have broken this down into four categories. The lowest on the food chain are the handful of FCS head coaches that might move up. The past record is so-so when a champion FCS coach moves to FBS. For every Jim Tressel and Bobby Bowden, you have coaches that totally flamed out when moving up. Wyoming is hoping that Craig Bohl proves to be a better hire than Joe Glenn. Glenn was the hottest FCS coach when the Cowboys hired him away from Montana following a 39-6 three-year record. Glenn went 30-41 in Laramie. Bohl came from North Dakota State, where he won three consecutive FCS Championships, and so far he is 30-35 at Wyoming, but 24-17 in his last three years and two games.

Second on the list are the coordinators at some successful FBS programs. Some of the best college head coaches ascended to their jobs from coordinator positions. Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, Ryan Day at Ohio State, and Kirby Smart at Georgia were coordinators at big time programs before becoming head coaches.

Third on the list are current head coaches at FBS schools in line to move to a bigger and better program. These can be both Group of 5 and Power 5 coaches.
Finally, there are some (one) currently out of coaching coaches. This person may be working for Fox Sports today. He claims he has retired, but until he is out of the game for a few years, nobody believes this.

Here’s the PiRate 2-deep of coaches. These 22 could improve a downtrodden program.

Category 1: Current FCS Head Coaches

Many of the top FCS teams in 2019 have first or second year coaches, because their program has produced new hires elsewhere. In addition, some of the remaining great FCS coaches are at a point in their careers where they are not going to have a chance to be hired at the FBS level, or they have previously failed as an FBS coach.
There are three prime coaches in this level that the PiRate Ratings believes can move to FBS and succeed.

1.Jay Hill, Weber State: Hill is 44 years old and has many coaching years left in his career. He’s spent most of his career in the State of Utah, having been an assistant with the Utes. At Weber State, he’s made the playoffs three years in a row, and his Wildcats have won consecutive Big Sky Conference titles. If a Group of 5 job opens out west, like New Mexico or UTEP, Hill could be in line to get a FBS job.

2. Brian Bohananon, Kennesaw St.: At 48, Bohannon is nearing the time where he will have to make the move up to FBS or be content to remain in FCS football. He won immediately after building this program up from scratch, and KSU almost won at Kent State this past weekend. The one possible issue is that Bohannon is a triple option style coach coming from the Paul Johnson coaching tree. KSU averaged more than 350 yards per game on the ground last year, and the service academies and Georgia Tech proved you can win at the FBS level with this offense. Will fans of a school concur?

3. Bob Surace, Princeton: Are you looking for another Urban Meyer in the making? Surace’s Princeton teams have been big-time spread offense powerhouses. The Tigers could run for 300 and pass for 200 yards a game, and that’s a hard task to stop. Princeton went 10-0 last year, beating 9-1 Dartmouth in the top Ivy League game in 30+ years. At 51, 2020 is probably the end of the line for getting a job at an FBS school. He could be in line for an AAC or MAC job if one became available.

Category 2: Current FBS Coordinators

This list is usually the longest of the categories, but this year it is number two. There are a handful of coordinators that appear to be on the radar to move up to the head position.

4. Bob Shoop, Mississippi State DC: Age may hamper his efforts to land a head coaching job, as he’s 53 and would be 54 in 2020. He was head coach at Columbia for three years and only went 7-23, but Columbia has been the bottom feeder of the Ivy League for almost 60 years. Winning in any sport in upper Manhattan is nearly impossible. Shoop should be judged on his excellent defensive work with Boston College, Vanderbilt, Penn State, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. State led the SEC in scoring and led the nation in total defense last year and finished second in the nation in scoring defense. With LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Kentucky on the schedule, that’s quite a feat.

5. Chris Long, Notre Dame OC: Long produced big numbers in his one year as OC at Memphis before coming to South Bend to run the Irish offense. In 2017, he helped the Irish offense roll up more than 440 total yards and 34 points per game with dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush. Last year, the Irish made the playoffs with pro-style QB Ian Book guiding the team to 31 points and 440 yards of offense. Notre Dame has a history of moving coordinators to head coaching hires at other schools, but it’s been a mixed bag at best. You may not know the name John Ray. He may have had the brightest star of any past Irish coordinator, after his defense led Notre Dame to the 1966 national championship while giving up less than four points per game. He was hired to turn Kentucky back into a big time football program and in four years, Ray went 10-33 in Lexington and 4-24 in the SEC. Giving up 58 points to a mediocre Indiana team in his debut set the stage for four years of despair at Stoll Field. Long is just 36 years old, so he’s got additional time to prove himself.

6. Alex Grinch, Oklahoma DC: Grinch is in his first year at Oklahoma after spending time as Urban Meyer’s DC at Ohio State. If Oklahoma shows any improvement defensively this year, the Sooners are a threat to win it all, and Grinch would become a hero ready to take over a team of his own.

7. Dave Aranda, LSU DC: Prior to this year, LSU had to rely on stingy defense and conservative offense to win games. Coach Ed Orgeron has opened up the offense in 2019, and quarterback Joe Burrow is slinging the ball all over the yard. This has led to a great 2-0 start for the Tigers, but it means that Arranda’s defense must play extra snaps. There were some incredible and some not so incredible results against Texas, and there will probably be some issues stopping top notch offenses remaining on the schedule, but LSU has the talent and coaching to compete with Alabama and Georgia for the SEC Championship. If Arranda’s defense produces a “Chinese Bandits” year in Baton Rouge, look for another school to come calling to make him the head coach.

8. Brent Venables, Clemson DC: Where not going to kid you about this; Venables is number one with a bullet among this category. If Clemson should run the table again this year, Trevor Lawrence and the offense will get most of the credit. However, Clemson finished number one nationally last year in scoring defense and number five in total defense. The Tigers had to reload on the stop side of the ball, as that incredible front four of 2018 closed up their college careers. In two games into the new season, Clemson has given up just 12 points per game. Before coming to Clemson, Venables ran the defense at Oklahoma, and defense slowly disappeared in Norman after he left.

 

Category 3: Current FBS Head Coaches at Power 5 Schools

9. Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia: Virginia had fallen on hard times with seven losing season in eight years under former coaches Al Groh and Mike London. After a rough first year in Charlottesville, Mendenhall began to produce magic like he did at BYU. Bryce Perkins may be the best QB in the ACC not named Lawrence, and Virginia is the current favorite to win the Coastal Division title. Mendenhall is 53 and maybe on the upper limits of his being able to move to another school, but if his alma mater comes knocking, he could take the Oregon State job.

10. Matt Rhule, Baylor: Baylor was in dire straits following all the damage done by former coach Art Briles. The Bears had moved into the top 10 on an annual basis before the bottom fell out in the wake of a sexual assault scandal. After a 1-11 debut in Waco, Rhule turned things around and guided Baylor to a 7-6 season and Texas Bowl win last year. His team is 2-0 to start this season, and they Bears are now a strong contender for the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Rhule turned the program around at Temple before coming to Baylor, and he was 20-7 in his final two years in Philadelphia, including a win over Penn State. Rhule could be the answer at a bigger Power 5 school. Or, he could take Baylor back to where it was at the beginning of this decade.

11. Matt Campbell, Iowa St.: Campbell’s name has been rumored at USC, and it was rumored at Ohio State, but he’s more likely to stay at Iowa State until a top 10 program comes along and seeks his services. Even if the USC job should become available, his name might not be “sexy” enough for the Socal fanatics. Campbell has done an incredible job in Ames, even beating Oklahoma in Norman. His Cyclones have a big game this week in the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy game with rival Iowa. If ISU wins this one, they must be considered a top contender along with Baylor for the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Add a 35-15 record with two divisional titles at Toledo, and Campbell’s resume is as good as any other potential candidate for a top 5 program.

12. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: It was expected that Kentucky would struggle to win six games and return to a bowl in 2019, after the Wildcats had their best year in 41 seasons in 2018. With the loss of the best player in college football, as well as their only sure offensive weapon, the Wildcats figured to struggle and have a difficult time staying out of the SEC East cellar. But, after two games, this Kentucky team looks as strong as last year’s edition, and with issues at Tennessee, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, UK could find itself in the race for the number two spot in the division with Florida and Missouri. If Stoops guides the ‘Cats to another 10-win season, a giant may throw enough money to get him to move on. It worked rather well for two past coaches that succeeded in Lexington. Bear Bryant won national championships at Alabama, while Blanton Collier won an NFL Championship with the Cleveland Browns.

Category 4: Current Head Coaches at Group of 5 FBS Schools

13. Luke Fickell, Cincinnati: The Bearcats might be the only team in the AAC East that can give Central Florida a scare, and UC has produced past head coaches that went elsewhere and won, like Mark Dantonio and Brian Kelly. Sid Gillman was once the Cinti head coach before making a name for himself in the American Football League with the Chargers. On the other hand, Butch Jones did not fare well at Tennessee after leading this school, and the father of the triple option, Homer Rice, never won again after leaving UC for Rice and then coming back to coach the Bengals for two years. Fickell might get a chance to coach in the Big Ten down the road if he can put together a few more seasons like 2018.

14. Josh Heupel, Central Florida: Heupel replaced Scott Frost in Orlando, and the Golden Knights have continued to win using a totally different style of play. If Heupel can run the table at UCF this year and then beat a big program in the Cotton Bowl, he could be in line for a job at a Power 5 school. If for some reason Lincoln Riley takes an NFL job as has been hinted, Heupel could easily be the man his alma mater looks for as the replacement.

15. Mike Norvell, Memphis: Norvell has done more than maintain the success that Justin Fuente had at Memphis. He’s come extremely close to winning the AAC Championship. His Memphis teams have been Central Florida’s number one nemesis, and UCF had to rally twice last year to beat the Tigers as it did in the 2017 AAC Championship Game. Norvell has experience as an assistant in the Pac-12, and if a Pac-12 job other than USC became available at the end of the year, he’d have to be a contender.

16. Willie Fritz, Tulane: Fritz has been a winner at every stop along the way in his career. He guided Tulane to a bowl win last year, the first time the Green Wave had won a bowl in 16 years. He won 18 games in two years at Georgia Southern including the Eagles’ first ever bowl win before coming to New Orleans, and prior to that, he went 40-15 at Sam Houston and 97-47 at Central Missouri. He’s the second oldest candidate on this list at 59, so he’d be quite a stretch for a Power 5 school to hire. He might be more suited to a place like one of the service academies if a job opens, as his offensive style includes a lot of the option game.

17. Jeff Monken, Army: If you like Fritz, then you must love Monken. Monken was the option guru at Georgia Southern prior to Fritz, when the Eagles were still in the FCS. He went 38-16 at GSU, which included playoff appearances in the three years that they were eligible before transitioning to FBS. Monken turned Army around quickly, and his triple option offense and tough defense could work in the FBS, just like it did for his mentor Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. A school like Vanderbilt might succeed with this strategy if the Commodores have an opening. Or, Monken could get a financial promotion to coach at a Group of 5 school in a conference, where he would have a chance to compete for a New Year’s Six Bowl. UTEP or Connecticut might be willing to take a chance.

18. Seth Littrell, North Texas: Now, let’s go to the other end of the spectrum. Littrell is an Air Raid coach, and he’s going to be missing the pilot of his offense when Mason Fine graduates at the end of this school year. North Texas has been quite entertaining to watch in Littrell’s time in Denton. While the OC at North Carolina, he tutored Mitch Trubisky and left Chapel Hill for this job following an 11-3 season that has not been matched since he moved on. A school like Illinois or Rutgers might be interested in him if they have to hire a coach in 2020.

19. Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan: Winning at EMU is one of the toughest assignments an FBS coach can undertake. Between 1975 and 2013 (1975 was their first as D1), EMU made it to one bowl game. Between 1990 and 2013, EMU had one winning season. Since Creighton came to Ypsilanti, the Eagles have had two winning seasons and two bowl appearances in the last three years. Creighton had to earn his way to FBS Football. He began at NAIA Ottawa College and then moved to D3 Wabash. He won 6 championships in 11 years below the D1 level. He took over at FCS Drake in 2008 and took the Bulldogs to a 41-22 record in six years there. This man can re-tool a program from the bottom up and should get a chance to coach at an FBS school. He’s 50, so his time is now. If EMU gets to another bowl this year, some school will most likely offer him a substantial raise. He’s a natural for a Big Ten or Big 12 job.

20. Jason Candle, Toledo: The MAC always has future Power 5 coaches roaming the sidelines, and Candle must be considered a prime suspect to make that move up, just like his predecessor, Campbell. At 39, he’s still got something to prove at Toledo, but the Rockets are always fun to watch, and this could attract schools that are having issues selling tickets.

21. Craig Bohl, Wyoming: Bohl is 24-17 in his last three years and two games in Laramie. He was 104-32 in 11 years at North Dakota State, which ended with three FCS National Championships in a row. His number one issue is the same as Fritz’s; he’s 61 and most likely won’t be approached by a major program. Still, he could be a short-time answer at a Big 12 or Pac-12 school, and Bill Snyder showed you can coach well into your 70’s. He could easily finish his career with 10 years of service.

22. Nick Rolovich, Hawaii: It might be hard to convince a coach to leave the Elysian Fields to coach on the more stressful Mainland. Rolovich has returned Hawaii to the status it enjoyed June Jones. Jones left Hawaii for SMU, and it may or may not have been the right move. Rolovich has little experience with any big time coaches that you could call mentors. He was an assistant for one year under Chris Ault at Nevada plus three years under Brian Polian. So, his name is not going to win any press conferences. Look at Hawaii’s stats under Rolovich. Some school might like 400 passing yards and 38 points per game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 19, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:01 pm

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday August 24
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Florida (n) Miami (Fla.) 11.0 9.5 8.9
Hawaii Arizona -2.2 -0.3 -3.4
 

 

Thursday August 29
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Cincinnati UCLA 2.6 1.1 3.7
Tulane Florida Int’l. 4.4 5.4 3.7
Clemson Georgia Tech 36.7 34.0 36.7
Texas A&M Texas St. 36.5 33.7 34.9
Arizona St. Kent St. 26.4 24.6 26.8
BYU Utah -13.5 -11.5 -13.5
 

 

Friday August 30
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Army Rice 28.2 26.4 28.7
South Florida Wisconsin -12.1 -10.1 -10.9
Michigan St. Tulsa 27.1 26.4 26.2
Rutgers Massachusetts 21.2 18.1 21.2
Wake Forest Utah St. 1.3 2.0 0.0
Nevada Purdue -15.2 -13.4 -15.2
Colorado (n) Colorado St. 20.5 14.8 20.6
Oregon St. Oklahoma St. -11.9 -10.8 -12.3
 

 

Saturday August 31
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. East Carolina 18.9 16.1 19.5
Illinois Akron 16.5 17.3 15.4
Indiana (n) Ball St. 23.8 22.4 23.3
Nebraska South Alabama 35.9 33.8 36.8
Ohio St. Florida Atlantic 32.2 31.1 31.7
Kentucky Toledo 21.3 19.7 19.0
Memphis Ole Miss 3.1 3.7 5.6
Louisiana (n) Mississippi St. -25.0 -19.6 -25.8
North Carolina (n) South Carolina -14.3 -11.3 -12.7
Tennessee Georgia St. 30.8 29.0 30.3
Alabama (n) Duke 31.3 26.7 32.2
Coastal Carolina Eastern Michigan -5.2 -4.1 -7.1
Stanford Northwestern 0.3 0.1 1.5
Boston College Virginia Tech -1.5 -2.6 -1.6
Liberty Syracuse -21.3 -19.4 -21.0
Arkansas St. SMU -5.4 -4.3 -5.8
Florida St. (n) Boise St. 2.0 3.6 1.9
Vanderbilt Georgia -18.7 -17.8 -20.0
Auburn (n) Oregon 3.8 0.9 1.5
LSU Georgia Southern 28.0 25.3 27.3
Wyoming Missouri -18.5 -12.7 -17.7
Iowa Miami (O) 27.4 26.6 26.8
Michigan Middle Tennessee 35.2 33.8 35.8
Pittsburgh Virginia 3.4 2.4 2.7
Texas Louisiana Tech 23.4 23.5 22.5
Washington St. New Mexico St. 37.0 32.5 37.4
USC Fresno St. 7.2 8.0 6.8
 

 

Sunday/Monday September 1/2
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Oklahoma Houston 28.2 25.7 24.9
Louisville Notre Dame -23.8 -22.4 -25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home Visitor PiRate
San Jose St. Northern Colorado 14.5
Connecticut Wagner 12.6
Central Michigan Albany 9.8
Bowling Green Morgan St. 17.2
Buffalo Robert Morris 43.9
Charlotte Gardner-Webb 26.5
Western Kentucky Central Arkansas 11.9
Central Florida Florida A&M 45.5
UAB Alabama St. 45.5
Minnesota South Dakota St. 12.7
UNLV Southern Utah 17.3
Air Force Colgate 11.3
New Mexico Sam Houston St. 9.7
Maryland Howard 36.0
Iowa St. Northern Iowa 22.2
Kansas Indiana St. 13.8
West Virginia James Madison 18.5
Ohio U Rhode Island 27.6
Washington E. Washington 18.0
Temple Bucknell 44.2
Navy Holy Cross 24.4
Penn St. Idaho 40.5
Appalachian St. East Tennessee 36.3
Arkansas Portland St. 21.0
Texas Tech Montana St. 25.7
UTSA Incarnate Word 7.3
Troy Campbell 33.8
California UC-Davis 14.5
Marshall VMI 37.8
Old Dominion Norfolk St. 23.5
Southern Miss Alcorn St. 23.6
Kansas St. Nicholls 23.9
Baylor Stephen F Austin 37.3
Northern Illinois Illinois St. 7.3
Western Michigan Monmouth 20.5
North Texas Abilene Christian 19.4
UTEP Houston Baptist 15.2
TCU Ark. Pine Bluff 52.3
Louisiana-Monroe Grambling 24.3
San Diego St. Weber St. 8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0
2 Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7
3 Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1
4 Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4
5 L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0
6 Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6
7 Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5
8 Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0
9 Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4
10 Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2
11 Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0
12 Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8
13 Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7
14 Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5
15 Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6
16 Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5
17 Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2
18 Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8
19 South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2
20 Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8
21 Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9
22 Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8
23 Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6
24 Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2
25 Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2
26 Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1
27 Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7
28 Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2
29 Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1
30 Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6
31 Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5
32 Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2
33 Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9
34 Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7
35 Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3
36 Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1
37 Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0
38 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7
39 Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7
40 Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7
41 California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4
42 Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3
43 Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2
44 U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8
45 Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8
46 Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3
47 West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1
48 Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6
49 Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5
50 Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0
51 U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4
52 Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4
53 Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1
54 Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0
55 Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9
56 Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8
57 Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2
58 T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2
59 Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7
60 North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6
61 Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2
62 Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1
63 Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7
64 BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7
65 Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4
66 North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5
67 Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1
68 Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9
69 Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7
70 Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6
71 Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2
72 SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1
73 Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2
74 Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4
75 Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2
76 Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7
77 Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6
78 Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2
79 Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1
80 Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6
81 South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2
82 Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1
83 Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9
84 San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8
85 Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8
86 Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2
87 Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1
88 Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9
89 Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9
90 Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2
91 North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1
92 Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6
93 Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3
94 Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0
95 Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9
96 Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8
97 Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5
98 Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0
99 Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9
100 Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5
101 Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3
102 Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4
103 Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4
104 Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8
105 Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7
106 Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6
107 U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0
108 U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3
109 Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1
110 Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7
111 East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0
112 Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5
113 Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2
114 San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2
115 Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2
116 Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2
117 New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1
118 Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4
119 Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4
120 Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0
121 New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0
122 Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7
123 Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5
124 Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0
125 Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5
126 Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8
127 South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2
128 Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6
129 Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5
130 U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1 0-0 0-0
Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3 0-0 0-0
Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2 0-0 0-0
South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2 0-0 0-0
East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0 0-0 0-0
Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0 0-0 0-0
SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1 0-0 0-0
Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7 0-0 0-0
Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2 0-0 0-0
Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0 0-0 0-0
Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1 0-0 0-0
 

 

AAC Averages 95.2 95.9 95.8 95.6
 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7 0-0 0-0
Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8 0-0 0-0
Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5 0-0 0-0
Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1 0-0 0-0
Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2 0-0 0-0
North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6 0-0 0-0
Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6 0-0 0-0
Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9 0-0 0-0
Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7 0-0 0-0
Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3 0-0 0-0
Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9 0-0 0-0
North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5 0-0 0-0
Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

ACC Averages 106.6 106.1 106.9 106.5
 

 

Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0 0-0 0-0
Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9 0-0 0-0
Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1 0-0 0-0
Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1 0-0 0-0
Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5 0-0 0-0
Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8 0-0 0-0
West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1 0-0 0-0
T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big 12 Averages 108.2 108.6 107.7 108.2
 

 

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4 0-0 0-0
Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6 0-0 0-0
Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5 0-0 0-0
Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6 0-0 0-0
Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7 0-0 0-0
Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7 0-0 0-0
Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2 0-0 0-0
Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2 0-0 0-0
Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7 0-0 0-0
Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2 0-0 0-0
Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2 0-0 0-0
Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7 0-0 0-0
Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big Ten Averages 110.1 109.4 109.6 109.7
 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2 0-0 0-0
Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2 0-0 0-0
Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9 0-0 0-0
Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5 0-0 0-0
Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6 0-0 0-0
Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7 0-0 0-0
Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9 0-0 0-0
North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1 0-0 0-0
Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0 0-0 0-0
U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0 0-0 0-0
Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0 0-0 0-0
Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5 0-0 0-0
U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

CUSA Averages 86.2 86.8 86.6 86.5
 

 

FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5 x 0-0
Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7 x 0-0
BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7 x 0-0
Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7 x 0-0
New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0 x 0-0
Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6 x 0-0
 

 

Indep. Averages 94.2 95.2 94.3 94.5
 

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6 0-0 0-0
Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3 0-0 0-0
Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8 0-0 0-0
Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2 0-0 0-0
Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2 0-0 0-0
Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1 0-0 0-0
Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9 0-0 0-0
Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4 0-0 0-0
Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5 0-0 0-0
Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

MAC Averages 88.3 88.1 88.8 88.4
 

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6 0-0 0-0
Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0 0-0 0-0
Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4 0-0 0-0
Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1 0-0 0-0
New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1 0-0 0-0
Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1 0-0 0-0
San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6 0-0 0-0
U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3 0-0 0-0
San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

MWC Averages 93.0 94.7 93.1 93.6
 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8 0-0 0-0
Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8 0-0 0-0
Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6 0-0 0-0
Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3 0-0 0-0
California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4 0-0 0-0
Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0 0-0 0-0
Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7 0-0 0-0
U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8 0-0 0-0
U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4 0-0 0-0
Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.5 107.1
 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1 0-0 0-0
Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4 0-0 0-0
Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5 0-0 0-0
South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2 0-0 0-0
Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2 0-0 0-0
Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0 0-0 0-0
Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0 0-0 0-0
L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0 0-0 0-0
Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2 0-0 0-0
Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8 0-0 0-0
Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7 0-0 0-0
Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4 0-0 0-0
Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.3 113.2 114.6 114.4
 

 

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4 0-0 0-0
Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2 0-0 0-0
Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2 0-0 0-0
Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3 0-0 0-0
Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5 0-0 0-0
Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4 0-0 0-0
Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2 0-0 0-0
South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

SBC Averages 89.5 90.2 88.8 89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings

 

# League Average
1 SEC 114.4
2 BTen 109.7
3 B12 108.2
4 P12 107.1
5 ACC 106.5
6 AAC 95.6
7 Ind 94.5
8 MWC 93.6
9 SUN 89.5
10 MAC 88.4
11 CUSA 86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Cincinnati
3 Utah St.
4 Boise St.
5 Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conf Conf Team Team
Bahamas MAC CUSA Western Michigan Southern Miss.
Frisco AAC At-large Houston Florida Int’l.
Cure AAC SBC Temple Georgia Southern
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech San Diego St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Central Florida Ohio
Camellia MAC SBC Eastern Michigan Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Utah St. UCLA
New Orleans CUSA SBC #1 UAB Appalachian St.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Hawaii BYU/MWC AAC BYU Memphis
Independence ACC SEC Florida St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Northwestern
Military ACC AAC Pittsburgh South Florida
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Minnesota
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Mississippi St.
Holiday Pac-12 Big Ten Washington St. Iowa
Cheez-It Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Hawaii
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) Iowa St.
Cotton At-large At-large Army Washington
First Responder CUSA Big 12 Marshall TCU
Redbox Pac-12 Big Ten Stanford Wisconsin
Music City SEC ACC Indiana Wake Forest
Orange ACC BTen/SEC Notre Dame Florida
Belk ACC SEC Syracuse Tennessee
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Tech Arizona St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Arizona SBC MWC Troy Fresno St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor Oregon
Citrus SEC BTen/ACC Texas A&M Nebraska
Outback Big Ten SEC Auburn Penn St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Utah
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC SMU North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator SEC Big Ten South Carolina Michigan St.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Air Force
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Purdue Boise St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta Top 4 Top 4 Clemson Georgia
Peach Top 4 Top 4 Alabama Michigan
Champsionship Fiesta Peach Clemson Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

August 18, 2019

2019 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

Current Penn State and former Vanderbilt football coach James Franklin once said, “The three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, AFC, and SEC.”  Even though Clemson has taken Alabama to the woodshed twice in three years, the SEC is still the class of college football.  Clemson has no rival in the ACC like Alabama has in the SEC.  There are no Georgia, LSU, Florida, or Texas A&M types in the ACC.  Clemson played Texas A&M last year; it was a close game, and the Aggies had a chance to win it.  They go to Clemson early this season, and it is probably the only game Clemson will have to worry about until the Playoffs.

In the East Division, Georgia is the only team that has won the SEC Championship in the last 10 seasons.  The Bulldogs won the 2017 title, and they led Alabama in the National Championship Game until Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench and became the best quarterback to wear the Crimson since Ken Stabler and Joe Namath.  Georgia lost to LSU last season and then led Alabama into the second half in the Championship Game, before Tua rallied the Tide again.  Can the third year be the charm?  Coach Kirby Smart has star quarterback Jake Fromm and talented running back D’Andre Swift back behind a tough offensive line.  The receiving corps is thin on experience but has some talent, and with Fromm throwing the ball, the passing game will top 200 yards a game.

The Bulldog defense had a little trouble stopping some enemy quarterbacks last year, but the secondary will be improved in 2019.  The Bulldog defense should yield 17 or less points per game, and Georgia has a chance to go 12-0 and get that third chance in a row to stop the Tide.

Florida won 10 games in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach in the Swamp.  The Gators should be Georgia’s principle competitor this year, but Mullen has some rebuilding to do on the attack side.  Feleipe Franks is a near star at quarterback.  If he stays healthy, Franks should pass for 3,000 yards this year, as Florida has a receiving corps that rivals Alabama’s in the league.  A defense that returns a lot up front and in back could give the Gators a chance in Jacksonville against the Bulldogs.

Unless an appeal is successful, Missouri will be on probation this year and not eligible for the SEC Championship Game, the Playoffs, or a bowl.  The Tigers might be the dark horse in the division, and if eligibility is restored, this team might be good enough to sneak into the division title picture, probably in a three-way tie.  Former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant replaces Drew Lock at quarterback, and the Missouri offense will be a little different, using Bryant’s ability to run.  The Tigers have an excellent receiving corps, led by a potential Mackie Award-winning tight end Albert Okwuegbunam.  The Missouri defense is not up to the standards of Florida and Georgia, but Coach Barry Odom has been gifted with a plum of a schedule this year.  The Tigers have a chance to go to Georgia on November 9 with an 8-0 record.

South Carolina and Tennessee are teams in transition.  The Gamecocks are trying to stay relevant against a tough schedule, while Tennessee is trying to return to relevance after several years under .500 in the SEC.  The Gamecocks are looking at a mild rebuilding year with a young, inexperienced defense that gave up more than 27 points last year.  Having to compete with Florida and Georgia is tough, but USC has three tough non-conference opponents, in rival Clemson plus North Carolina and Appalachian St.

Tennessee returns the most starters of any team in a power 5 conference, and the Vols have a rather strong group of redshirt freshmen available for second year coach Jeremy Pruitt.  Pruitt is a master defensive specialist, and the Volunteers will improve on their 2018 numbers of 28 points and 377 yards per game allowed.  The Big Orange offense was inconsistent last year, and it won’t be championship quality this year.  With Jim Chaney brought on board as offensive coordinator, Tennessee should be a little more consistent in 2019, and the Vols should improve to the plus side of .500 and make a bowl game.

Kentucky had its best season since 1977 in 2018, but the Wildcats face a major rebuilding year under Coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats lost All-American Josh Allen off the defense, and even if they returned the rest of that unit, it would mean the defense would be weaker.  Unfortunately, UK lost six other starters from this side of the ball, and it was defense that allowed UK to win 10 games last year.  The offense also lost seven starters, including star running back Benny Snell.  Terry Wilson is a serviceable quarterback, but he’s not going to shred defensive backfields like Fromm or Franks in the East.

Vanderbilt is the perennial choice for last place in the East Division, but Coach Derek Mason has been able to produce bowl eligibility twice in three years, even having to play a tough non-conference foe in those years.  The Commodores lost star quarterback Kyle Shurmur, but they bring in former Ball State starter Riley Neal, and Neal has the talent to equal or even top the production given by Shurmur.  With running back Keyshawn Vaughn returning after leading the SEC in rushing, and with a receiving corps that is deep and talented, the Commodores could average more than 400 total yards and 30 points per game this year.  Unfortunately, the defense may give up even more, and that is why Vandy might not be as dandy in 2019.  The losses of secondary stars Joejuan Williams and Ladarius Wiley will be tough on an inexperienced pass defense.

In the West, Alabama is the odds-on favorite to go 12-0, win the SEC Championship Game, and then win the semifinal game in the Playoffs, where a rematch with Clemson will excite college football fans from coast to coast.  In the Nick Saban years in Tuscaloosa, the Tide has had numerous stars drafted into the NFL, and it looked Saban had a little rebuilding to do.  At Alabama, one future star replaces a former star.  There is no such thing as rebuilding when you perpetually have the number one recruiting class in college football.  With Tagovailoa returning at quarterback, and with the best receiving corps outside of the NFL, Alabama should have no trouble topping 40 or even 45 points and 300-350 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide has the SEC’s best defense yet again, but they could be a tad vulnerable against some tough running backs and top of the line quarterbacks (like Fromm).  It will not be a cakewalk for the Crimson Tide this year.  One team is liable to upset them along the way, but whether that team can also finish 7-1 in the league and win the crown is highly unlikely.

LSU appears to have the best chance of dethroning the King.  The Tigers won 10 games last year but did not compete with Alabama, losing at home 29-0.  Coach Ed Orgeron has done a fine job recruiting talent to Baton Rouge, and in quarterback Joe Burrow, he has a potentially great passer, something that has prevented the Tigers from beating Alabama in recent years.  Defensively, the Tigers have the best defense not wearing crimson, and the LSU secondary might be the best in the nation.  It will give the Tigers a chance to stop Tua and the Tide.  An early game against Texas in Austin should give the nation a great look to see if LSU has what it takes to knock off the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium in November.

Texas A&M faces an impossible schedule.  They play Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia, which is just plain brutal.  Second year coach Jimbo Fisher has worked wonders in his short time in College Station, but the A&M defense is going to be battered and bruised by these top notch offenses.  The Aggies could average more than 40 points per game in the other eight contests, and it would not be a surprise to see them upset one of those four powers.  At the same time, Auburn, Mississippi State, and South Carolina might sneak up and upset the Aggies.  8-4 is about the best that can be expected under these circumstances.

Auburn also has an impossible schedule this year, as in addition to Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M in the West, the Tigers have their annual game against Georgia, and then they must commence play against a tough Oregon team in a neutral site game.  With the loss of Jarrett Stidham and his top two targets, the offense may take a step backwards.  The defense should be quite strong, but in the SEC West, the Tigers could lose a lot of 21-17 games.  Coach Gus Malzahn is in a bit of a pickle on the Plains, and if War Eagles don’t win nine times this year, Gus may be on the bus out of town.

Mississippi State might be strong enough to compete for a division title in the Pac-12 or Big 12, but in the SEC West, they are probably not even in the top four.  In a league with incredibly talented defenses, the Bulldogs had the best of all in 2018, holding nine teams under 14 points.  Still, it led to only an 8-5 season, and the Maroons have issues on the offensive side of the ball this year, especially the all-important passing game.  Only a strong chance of going 4-0 outside the league will guarantee the Bulldogs bowl eligibility.

Arkansas might be the true sleeper of the league this year.  Second year coach Chad Morris had a major transition when he came to Fayetteville and switched the Razorbacks from a smash mouth offense to a more finesse spread offense.  He didn’t have the personnel to make the offense shine.  He will have a lot more of the necessary pieces this season, and he has a quarterback that can make the offense go.  Ben Hicks was Morris’s quarterback at SMU, when the Mustangs passed for close to 300 yards and scored 38 points per game in 2017.  He won’t replicate those numbers in the SEC, but Arkansas should top 28 points per game and challenge for a 6-6 record and bowl eligibility.

Ole Miss comes off probation this year, and the Rebels can become eligible for a bowl once again.  Unfortunately, the Rebels face a major rebuilding and transitioning with new offensive and defensive coordinators.  The offense welcomes Rich Rodriguez, and his read-option spread to the SEC.  The West Division foes have many years experience facing a nearly identical offense at Auburn, so it will not be something new and surprising.  The Rebels will not be as talented or competent at Auburn running this offense, so Ole Miss should see a considerable dip in production on this side of the ball.  Of course, losing quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and three star receivers would hurt no matter what offense was being run.  Defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre has a lot more experience to work with on his side of the ball, but the Rebels lack the talent to compete against the rest of the West.  It could be a long year in Oxford.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Southeastern Conference Media Poll
 

 

East Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall
1 Georgia 233 1789
2 Florida 21 1499
3 Missouri 3 1149
4 S. Carolina 1 883
5 Tennessee 1 804
6 Kentucky 1 798
7 Vanderbilt 0 358
 

 

West Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall
1 Alabama 253 1813
2 LSU 5 1493
3 Texas A&M 0 1268
4 Auburn 1 1090
5 Mississippi St. 1 769
6 Ole Miss 0 504
7 Arkansas 0 343
 

 

Championship Game Winner Overall Votes
Alabama 203
Georgia 49
LSU 3
Mississippi St. 1
Tennessee 1
Florida 1
South Carolina 1
Auburn 1

 

The PiRate Ratings show just how strong the league begins the 2019 season.  Ten teams begin 2019 at least 10 points better than the average FBS school.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–SEC

 

East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 126.2 123.6 126.6 125.5
Florida 120.5 117.8 119.5 119.2
Missouri 115.3 112.4 115.3 114.3
S. Carolina 114.0 112.2 113.9 113.4
Tennessee 112.6 111.6 111.1 111.8
Kentucky 109.5 107.5 108.3 108.4
Vanderbilt 104.3 103.3 103.4 103.7
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 135.6 130.6 136.4 134.2
L S U 123.3 120.4 122.0 121.9
Texas A&M 118.6 116.6 117.0 117.4
Auburn 116.8 114.4 115.9 115.7
Mississippi St. 117.0 112.5 116.7 115.4
Ole Miss 102.0 101.1 100.7 101.3
Arkansas 100.0 100.5 99.3 100.0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.4 113.2 114.7 114.4

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss

 

East Division

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Georgia 8-0 12-1
2 Florida 6-2 10-2
3 Missouri 5-3 9-3
4 Tennessee 3-5 7-5
5 South Carolina 3-5 6-6
6 Kentucky 2-6 6-6
7 Vanderbilt 2-6 5-7
 

 

West Division

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Alabama 8-0 13-0*
2 LSU 6-2 10-2
3 Texas A&M 5-3 8-4
4 Auburn 4-4 8-4
5 Mississippi St. 3-5 7-5
6 Ole Miss 2-6 5-7
7 Arkansas 1-7 5-7
 

*

 

Alabama picked to win SEC Championship Game

 

Coaches That Could Be In Line To Get A Top 10 Job

Most of the coaches are already at a program that either is a top 10 job or has the potential to be.  However, there is one coach that could advance to a bigger program

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

 

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Will Muschamp, South Carolina

 

Malzahn’s seat is considerably hotter than Muschamp’s seat.  If Auburn does not find a way to finish in the top three in the SEC West, there will most likely be a change on the Plains.

 

Top Quarterbacks

We have been showcasing three and sometimes four quarterbacks in the other conferences, but there is NFL Draft potential deep into the ranking of SEC quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Feleipe Franks, Florida

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Kelly Bryant, Missouri

Jake Bentley, South Carolina

Joe Burrow, LSU

Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee

 

Best Offense

Alabama

Georgia

Missouri

 

Best Defense

Alabama

LSU

Florida

 

Coming Tomorrow:  It’s finally here!  This is week 0 of the NCAA Football season.  There are two games Saturday, and that means we will debut the full regular season ratings.  Look for our first weekly report tomorrow.

Here’s how we expect to release our information this year.

Mondays: Updated College Football Ratings and Spreads for the week’s FBS games

Tuesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the week’s games

Thursdays: Our PiRate Rating picks for the week’s college and NFL games

Very Important Reminder: The members of the PiRate Ratings do not wager on football games.  We issue our selections just for entertainment purposes only and remind you that they are presented free of charge.  You get what you paid for, so don’t go wagering your mortgage payment on our advice.

That said, the PiRate Picks have returned narrow overall profits for four consecutive seasons.  Our claim to fame is finding Money Line Parlays that return better than even money odds.  Thus, we can hit on just 40% of them and still turn a profit, because the average parlay has +150 to +180 odds.  This means that if you place $1 on a parlay at +180 odds, if you win, you will receive $2.80 back from the Nevada books (Your $1 investment plus a profit of $1.80 for winning the parlay).  If you win 30% of your wagers at +150, you will turn a profit of 5%.  If you can win one of every three parlays at an average of +150, your profit is 16.7%, more than the average return in the stock market over time.  Of course, over time, your chances of profiting in the stock market nears 100%, where in football wagering,  your chances of profiting remains at 47.6%, unless you have inside information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 29, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 29, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Michigan St.

121.0

0.0

LSU

114.5

6.5

North Carolina

121.4

0.0

Auburn

115.9

5.5

Duke

122.4

0.0

Virginia Tech

115.4

7.0

Kentucky

118.3

0.0

Houston

116.0

2.3

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team

Team

TIME (EDT)

TV

LOCATION

LSU

Michigan St.

7:09 PM

CBS

Washington, D.C.

Auburn

N. Carolina

7:29 PM

TBS

Kansas City

Va. Tech

Duke

9:39 PM

CBS

Washington, D.C.

Houston

Kentucky

9:59 PM

TBS

Kansas City

March 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Saturday, March 23, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:57 am

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

LSU

114.6

0.0

Maryland

113.0

1.6

Kentucky

118.5

0.0

Wofford

113.9

4.6

Michigan

119.0

0.0

Florida

111.9

7.1

Florida St.

115.2

0.0

Murray St.

110.4

4.8

Gonzaga

123.1

0.0

Baylor

110.5

12.6

Michigan St.

120.9

0.0

Minnesota

110.2

10.7

Purdue

117.1

0.0

Villanova

111.8

5.3

Kansas

115.3

0.0

Auburn

115.7

-0.4

Saturday’s Schedule

TIME (ET)

GAME

TV

SITE

12:10 p.m.

(6) Maryland vs. (3) LSU

CBS

Jacksonville

Approx. 2:55 p.m.

(7) Wofford vs. (2) Kentucky

CBS

Jacksonville

5:15 p.m.

(10) Florida vs. (2) Michigan

CBS

Des Moines

6:10 p.m.

(12) Murray St. vs. (4) Florida St.

TNT

Hartford

7:10 p.m.

(9) Baylor vs. (1) Gonzaga

TBS

Salt Lake City

Approx. 8:00 p.m.

(10) Minnesota vs. (2) Michigan St.

CBS

Des Moines

Approx 8:55 p.m.

(6) Villanova vs. (3) Pudue

TNT

Hartford

Approx 9:55 p.m.

(5) Auburn vs. (4) Kansas

TBS

Salt Lake City

 

March 22, 2019

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Round of 32 for Saturday, March 23, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:02 am

Saturday, March 23, 2019  

Round of 32

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

LSU

58.68

3.4

36.9

70.0

15.3

17.7

10.2

Maryland

59.94

7.1

33.9

75.3

16.6

12.3

8.6

Maryland’s strength of schedule advantage is negligible.  LSU’s R+T advantage is also negligible.  Rebounding should be close to even, and it doesn’t appear like turnovers will decide this game.

It comes down to true shooting % margin, and Maryland’s is better by enough to move the needle into Terp territory.

Predicted Winner: Maryland but a close game

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Kentucky

60.47

9.9

36.9

74.7

15.9

16.1

16.3

Wofford

52.40

8.2

32.8

76.3

13.6

18.1

13.5

Wofford looked great in the closing minutes of their blowout win over Seton Hall, just like they did when they closed out the SoCon Championship Game against UNC-Greensboro.  This will not repeat itself Saturday.  Kentucky might give the Terriers a dose of their own medicine, but it will more than likely come in the first half.  The Wildcats are too much out of Wofford’s class, and the SOS difference makes UK’s analytics much superior to Wofford’s.

Even with P. J. Washington still unavailable until next week at the earliest, Kentucky has too much muscle and quickness for the Terriers.  Wofford’s excellent inside-outside combination won’t be able to connect enough times.

Predicted Winner: Kentucky by double digits

 

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Michigan

60.07

8.8

23.8

75.2

12.1

16.0

3.4

Florida

60.24

1.4

31.1

67.9

15.5

19.3

-1.0

Florida became one of the few teams with a negative R+T rating to advance to the Round of 32, and their R+T is still negative.  Michigan’s R+T is definitely a liability also, but at least it is positive.  The Wolverines has a far superior true shooting % margin, most of which is due to their top-rate defense, led by “defensive coordinator” Luke Yaklich.

Predicted Winner: Michigan by 5 to 12 points

 

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Florida St.

59.75

3.4

32.8

73.5

16.3

18.1

8.7

Murray St.

48.31

11.2

31.6

70.7

14.7

17.0

7.2

 

The popular pick is Ja Morant and the Racers, but the ACC was really tough at the top, and this data shows the Seminoles’ SOS looks insurmountable in this game.  The ‘Noles have a lot more muscle than Marquette, and they will be able to wear down Murray and control the boards while forcing the Racers into more second half mistakes.

Predicted Winner: Florida St. by 7 to 15

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Gonzaga

55.92

17.7

30.9

73.1

12.8

16.6

15.0

Baylor

58.64

1.5

37.8

71.4

16.6

16.2

9.0

Baylor’s SOS is a little better than Gonzaga, and the Bears should be able to get a couple extras offensive rebounds, but Gonzaga is too much better everywhere else.  A lot of people are picking the Bears to be the first team to send a #1-seed home, but in my opinion, Gonzaga has the best path to the Final Four of any #1-seed.

Predicted Winner: Gonzaga by double digits

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Michigan St.

61.31

13.6

33.6

73.8

16.0

12.8

11.9

Minnesota

59.70

2.0

31.5

72.4

14.8

14.3

1.1

Never before have conference rivals met in the Round of 32, and this does alter our data a little bit, but not much.  In their previous meeting, Michigan State thoroughly destroyed Minnesota in a game in East Lansing.  The analytical data in that game was not that much off the norm, as Michigan State was expected to dominate the offensive glass and get better percentage shots.

The data has not changed much from that home game for Sparty.  It will be closer this time, but the outcome should still be the same.  MSU has huge R+T and True Shooting % Margin advantages here.  Minny might not be able to beat the Spartans more than one time in 10 games on a neutral floor.

Predicted Winner: Michigan St. by 10-15 points

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Purdue

60.86

2.9

34.2

73.8

13.5

17.0

11.1

Villanova

58.03

5.1

30.5

72.9

14.2

15.3

3.2

 

The defending national champions may not make it to the Sweet 16.  Purdue isn’t that much slower than the Wildcats and much stronger.  The Boilermakers’ will eventually lose to a team with a superior TS Margin and enough muscle to make the board battle even, but I don’t think the Wildcats have the juice this year to be that team.

Predicted Winner: Purdue by 4 to 9 points

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Kansas

62.70

6.1

29.7

72.0

16.0

15.6

2.7

Auburn

59.91

1.7

32.5

67.9

14.7

21.9

6.8

 

This will be an interesting game, and it should be a nail-biter unless one team just doesn’t have it and lays an egg.  I believe that if these teams play 10 times, it would be 5 to 5 in wins.  Kansas has the better TS% Margin, but not by that much.   The difference in this game is that Auburn can force turnovers, and Kansas is turnover-prone.  That’s where I give the Tigers an ever so slight advantage overall.

Predicted Winner: Auburn by 6 or less

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 15, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, March 15, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:37 am

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Houston

114.9

0.0

Connecticut

105.1

9.8

Memphis

106.7

3.0

Central Florida

110.3

-0.6

Cincinnati

110.3

0.0

SMU

103.1

7.2

Temple

106.8

0.0

Wichita St.

104.7

2.1

Virginia Commonwealth

111.3

0.0

Rhode Island

103.0

8.3

St. Bonaventure

102.6

0.0

George Mason

100.7

1.9

Davidson

106.3

0.0

Saint Joseph’s

99.2

7.1

Dayton

107.9

0.0

Saint Louis

102.8

5.1

Virginia

122.1

0.0

Florida St.

113.4

8.7

North Carolina

121.8

0.0

Duke

123.5

-1.7

Kansas St.

112.9

1.0

Iowa St.

113.6

0.3

Kansas

114.9

2.0

West Virginia

105.7

11.2

Villanova

112

0.0

Xavier

106.0

6.0

Seton Hall

108.6

1.0

Marquette

113.0

-3.4

Montana

101.6

0.0

Weber St.

97.4

4.2

Southern Utah

93.4

0.0

Eastern Washington

95.2

-1.8

Michigan St.

120.9

0.0

Ohio St.

110.5

10.4

Wisconsin

115.4

1.0

Nebraska

111.7

4.7

Purdue

117.5

0.0

Minnesota

109.2

8.3

Michigan

118.3

0.0

Iowa

111.6

6.7

UC-Irvine

105.6

0.0

Long Beach St.

97.1

8.5

UC Santa Barbara

99.8

0.0

Cal St. Fullerton

98.3

1.5

Old Dominion

103.4

0.0

UAB

100.3

3.1

Western Kentucky

103.4

0.0

Southern Miss.

104.0

-0.6

Buffalo

115.3

0.0

Central Michigan

103.2

12.1

Northern Illinois

102.6

0.0

Bowling Green

104.1

-1.5

North Carolina A&T

92.5

0.0

North Carolina Central

92.6

-0.1

Norfolk St.

94.3

0.0

Howard

91.1

3.2

Nevada

113.9

1.0

San Diego St.

103.3

11.6

Utah St.

110.6

0.0

Fresno St.

108.5

2.1

Washington

109.5

0.0

Colorado

107.0

2.5

Arizona St.

107.9

0.0

Oregon

109.7

-1.8

Sam Houston St.

99.7

0.0

New Orleans

94.7

5.0

Abilene Christian

101.1

0.0

Southeastern Louisiana

95.7

5.4

LSU

114.8

0.0

Florida

112.9

1.9

South Carolina

106.9

0.0

Auburn

115.3

-8.4

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Alabama

108.2

9.8

Tennessee

119.0

1.0

Mississippi St.

114.0

6.0

Georgia Southern

104.7

0.0

Louisiana Monroe

102.3

2.4

Texas St.

103.0

0.0

South Alabama

97.4

5.6

Prairie View A&M

96.5

0.0

Grambling

94.1

2.4

Texas Southern

96.6

0.0

Alabama St.

89.0

7.6

New Mexico St.

108.1

0.0

UT Rio Grande Valley

98.7

9.4

Utah Valley

105.1

0.0

Grand Canyon

105.6

-0.5

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

First Round–Thursday, March 14

Connecticut

80

South Florida

73

Memphis

83

Tulane

68

SMU

74

Tulsa

65

Wichita St.

73

East Carolina

57

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Houston (29-2)

9

Connecticut (16-16)

4

Central Florida (23-7)

5/12

Memphis (20-12)

2

Cincinnati (25-6)

10

SMU (15-16)

3

Temple (23-8)

6

Wichita St. (18-13)

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Rhode Island

76

La Salle

57

George Mason

61

George Washington

57

Saint Joseph’s

92

Duquesne

86

Saint Louis

71

Richmond

68

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia Commonwealth (25-6)

8

Rhode Island (17-14)

4

St. Bonaventure (16-15)

5

George Mason (18-14)

2

Davidson (23-8)

10

Saint Joseph’s (14-18)

3

Dayton (21-10)

6

Saint Louis (20-12)

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Virginia

76

North Carolina St.

56

Florida St.

65

Virginia Tech

63 ot

North Carolina

83

Louisville

70

Duke

84

Syracuse

72

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia (29-2)

5

Florida St. (26-6)

2

North Carolina (27-5)

3

Duke (27-5)

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Kansas St.

70

TCU

61

Iowa St.

83

Baylor

66

West Virginia

79

Texas Tech

74

Kansas

65

Texas

57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Kansas St. (25-7)

5

Iowa St. (21-11)

10

West Virginia (14-19)

3

Kansas (24-8)

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Villanova

73

Providence

62

Xavier

63

Creighton

61

Marquette

86

St. John’s

54

Seton Hall

73

Georgetown

57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (23-9)

4

Xavier (17-14)

2

Marquette (24-8)

3

Seton Hall (19-12)

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Montana

79

Sacramento St.

73

Weber St.

81

Portland St.

71

Southern Utah

83

Northern Colorado

63

Eastern Washington

90

Montana St.

84

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (24-8)

4

Weber St. (18-14)

7

Southern Utah (16-15)

3

Eastern Washington (15-17)

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Ohio St.

79

Indiana

75

Nebraska

69

Maryland

61

Minnesota

77

Penn St.

72 ot

Iowa

83

Illinois

62

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Michigan St. (25-6)

8

Ohio St. (19-13)

4

Wisconsin (22-9)

13

Nebraska (18-15)

2

Purdue (23-8)

7

Minnesota (20-12)

3

Michigan (26-5)

6

Iowa (22-10)

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

UC-Irvine

63

Cal St. Riverside

44

Long Beach St.

68

Hawaii

66

Cal St. Fullerton

75

UC Davis

71 ot

UC Santa Barbara

71

Cal St. Northridge

68

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (28-5)

5

Long Beach St. (15-18)

2

UC Santa Barbara (22-9)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (15-16)

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Old Dominion

57

Louisiana Tech

56

UAB

85

UTSA

76

Western Kentucky

67

North Texas

51

Southern Miss.

82

Marshall

73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (24-8)

5

UAB (20-13)

2

Western Kentucky (19-13)

3

Southern Miss. (20-11)

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Buffalo

82

Akron

46

Central Michigan

89

Kent St.

81

Northern Illinois

80

Toledo

76

Bowling Green

99

Ball St.

86

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (29-3)

5

Central Michigan (23-10)

7

Northern Illinois (27-16)

3

Bowling Green (21-11)

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

UNC Central

75

Delaware St.

57

Howard

80

Bethune-Cookman

71

North Carolina A&T

82

Coppin St.

79 ot

Norfolk St.

78

South Carolina St.

73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

North Carolina A&T (19-12)

3

North Carolina Central (16-15)

1

Norfolk St. (20-12)

4

Howard (17-15)

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Nevada

77

Boise St.

69

San Diego St.

63

UNLV

55

Utah St.

91

New Mexico

83

Fresno St.

76

Air Force

50

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1

Nevada (29-3)

4

San Diego St. (20-11)

2

Utah St. (26-6)

3

Fresno St. (22-8)

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Washington

78

USC

75

Colorado

73

Oregon St.

58

Arizona St.

83

UCLA

72

Oregon

66

Utah

54

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (25-7)

5

Colorado (21-11)

2

Arizona St. (22-9)

6

Oregon (21-12)

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

New Orleans

76

Lamar

72

Southeastern Louisiana

79

Central Arkansas

65

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Sam Houston St. (21-10)

4

New Orleans (18-12)

2

Abilene Christian (25-6)

3

Southeastern Louisiana (17-15)

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Florida

66

Arkansas

50

Auburn

81

Missouri

71

Alabama

62

Ole Miss

57

Mississippi St.

80

Texas A&M

54

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

LSU (26-5)

8

Florida (18-14)

4

South Carolina (16-15)

5

Auburn (23-9)

2

Kentucky (26-5)

10

Alabama (18-14)

3

Tennessee (27-4)

6

Mississippi St. (23-9)

Sun Belt Conference

Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Louisiana Monroe

80

Coastal Carolina

50

South Alabama

70

Louisiana

69

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

Georgia Southern (20-11)

7

Louisiana Monroe (18-14)

4

Texas St. (23-8)

8

South Alabama (17-16)

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Site: at Higher Seeds

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 12

Prairie View A&M

86

Alcorn St.

66

Grambling

59

Arkansas Pine Bluff

52

Alabama St.

58

Jackson St.

49

Texas Southern

80

Southern

70

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Prairie View A&M (21-12)

4

Grambling (17-15)

2

Texas Southern (20-12)

6

Alabama St. (12-18)

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

New Mexico St.

86

Chicago St.

49

UT RGV

85

Cal St. Bakersfield

70

Grand Canyon

84

Seattle

75

Utah Valley

70

UM Kansas City

64

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (28-4)

4

UT Rio Grande Valley (19-15)

2

Utah Valley (24-8)

3/6

Grand Canyon (19-12)

 

 

 

 

March 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Saturday, March 9, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Abilene Christian

100.5

2.5

Incarnate Word

85.0

18.0

Appalachian St.

98.2

2.5

South Alabama

97.1

3.6

Arizona

106.1

2.5

Arizona St.

108.1

0.5

Arkansas

108.4

3.0

Alabama

108.3

3.1

Arkansas St.

94.5

2.5

Louisiana

99.7

-2.7

Auburn

115.5

3.0

Tennessee

118.9

-0.4

Belmont

109.0

0.0

Murray St.

108.6

0.4

Boise St.

102.0

3.0

Air Force

95.5

9.5

Boston College

104.9

3.0

North Carolina St.

112.2

-4.3

BYU

106.2

0.0

San Diego

104.6

1.6

Cal Poly

88.6

2.5

UC Santa Barbara

101.0

-9.9

Cal St. Fullerton

99.5

3.5

Hawaii

97.7

5.3

Chicago St.

79.4

2.5

Missouri Kansas City

94.9

-13.0

Clemson

112.0

3.0

Syracuse

111.4

3.6

Coastal Carolina

101.1

2.5

Troy

95.1

8.5

Colorado

106.8

3.0

USC

105.8

4.0

Colorado St.

99.4

3.0

UNLV

100.9

1.5

Columbia

97.1

2.5

Harvard

103.6

-4.0

Cornell

95.4

2.5

Dartmouth

97.9

0.0

Creighton

109.9

2.5

DePaul

105.1

7.3

Drake

102.6

0.0

Northern Iowa

99.1

3.5

Duquesne

100.3

3.0

Dayton

108.2

-4.9

East Tennessee St.

106.6

0.0

Chattanooga

94.0

12.6

Elon

92.0

0.0

UNC Wilmington

94.7

-2.7

Fairleigh-Dickinson

97.2

2.5

Robert Morris

95.0

4.7

Florida Int’l.

97.0

2.5

North Texas

101.3

-1.8

Fresno St.

107.2

2.5

San Jose St.

85.7

24.0

Furman

107.9

0.0

Mercer

98.3

9.6

George Washington

93.8

2.5

George Mason

101.0

-4.7

Georgia Southern

104.8

2.0

Georgia St.

103.2

3.6

Grambling

93.7

2.5

Alabama A&M

84.6

11.6

Hartford

98.8

2.5

UMass Lowell

95.0

6.3

Idaho St.

91.2

2.0

Idaho

84.9

8.3

Iowa St.

114.3

3.0

Texas Tech

118.0

-0.7

Jackson St.

89.5

2.5

Alabama St.

89.2

2.8

James Madison

93.8

0.0

Towson

94.0

-0.2

Kansas

114.9

3.0

Baylor

110.6

7.3

Kansas St.

112.8

3.0

Oklahoma

111.6

4.2

Kentucky

118.2

3.0

Florida

111.7

9.5

La Salle

96.9

2.5

Fordham

95.6

3.8

Lamar

97.6

2.5

McNeese St.

89.4

10.7

Little Rock

96.6

2.5

Louisiana Monroe

100.8

-1.7

Loyola (Chi.)

103.7

0.0

Bradley

99.5

4.2

LSU

113.7

3.0

Vanderbilt

102.1

14.6

Marquette

112.9

3.0

Georgetown

106.0

9.9

Marshall

99.4

3.0

Florida Atlantic

99.0

3.4

Maryland-Baltimore Co.

97.0

2.5

Albany

94.1

5.4

Memphis

107

3.0

Tulsa

103.1

6.9

Michigan St.

120.2

1.5

Michigan

118.2

3.5

Middle Tennessee

95.5

2.5

UTEP

92.4

5.6

Mississippi St.

113.4

3.0

Texas A&M

105.4

11.0

Mississippi Valley St.

83.8

2.5

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

89.4

-3.1

Missouri

106.2

3.0

Ole Miss

110.0

-0.8

Nevada

114.7

3.0

San Diego St.

104.2

13.5

New Mexico St.

107.8

3.0

California Baptist

97.4

13.4

Nicholls St.

91.3

2.5

Southeastern Louisiana

94.9

-1.1

North Carolina

120.7

1.0

Duke

123.5

-1.8

Northern Colorado

100.9

2.5

Northern Arizona

91.5

11.9

Northwestern

107.4

3.0

Purdue

117.4

-7.0

Northwestern St.

86.6

2.5

Central Arkansas

91.4

-2.3

Oklahoma St.

104.7

3.0

West Virginia

105.1

2.6

Omaha

100.1

0.0

North Dakota

94.5

5.6

Penn

103.3

2.5

Brown

101.3

4.5

Pittsburgh

105.0

2.5

Notre Dame

106.0

1.5

Portland St.

94.4

2.5

Montana St.

95.2

1.7

Prairie View

95.5

2.5

Alcorn St.

84.6

13.4

Princeton

100.2

2.5

Yale

105.7

-3.0

Providence

106.4

3.0

Butler

108.5

0.9

Quinnipiac

96.9

0.0

Monmouth

93.3

3.6

Rhode Island

102.1

2.5

Massachusetts

97.7

6.9

Rice

94.8

2.5

Charlotte

91.7

5.6

Richmond

99.0

2.5

Davidson

106.8

-5.3

Rider

98.7

0.0

Siena

95.4

3.3

Sacramento St.

94.6

2.5

Montana

102.6

-5.5

San Francisco

107.7

0.0

Pepperdine

99.8

7.9

Seattle

98.3

2.5

Grand Canyon

105.0

-4.2

Seton Hall

108.2

2.5

Villanova

113.5

-2.8

South Carolina

106.4

2.5

Georgia

103.9

5.0

South Dakota St.

106.1

1.0

Western Illinois

92.1

15.0

Southern Miss.

102.6

2.5

UTSA

100.6

4.5

St. Bonaventure

102.7

3.0

Saint Louis

103.6

2.1

St. Francis (PA)

95.7

2.5

Long Island

95.3

2.9

Stephen F. Austin

92.4

2.0

Sam Houston St.

99.0

-4.6

Stony Brook

100.8

2.5

Binghamton

89.3

14.0

Temple

106.9

3.0

Central Florida

110.7

-0.8

Texas

112.6

2.5

TCU

109.3

5.8

Texas A&M CC

93.6

2.5

Houston Baptist

93.5

2.6

Texas Southern

97.6

2.5

Southern

86.8

13.3

Tulane

92.8

2.5

Wichita St.

105.0

-9.7

UAB

99.7

2.5

Old Dominion

104.2

-2.0

UC Davis

96

2.5

UC Riverside

91.3

7.2

UC Irvine

105.5

2.5

Cal St. Northridge

93.6

14.4

UNC Greensboro

105.5

0.0

Samford

99.9

5.6

UT Arlington

99.6

2.0

Texas St.

103.4

-1.8

Utah

104.0

3.0

UCLA

105.1

1.9

Utah Valley

103.8

2.5

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.9

9.4

Vermont

106.1

3.0

Maine

88.7

20.4

Virginia

123.5

3.0

Louisville

113.7

12.8

Wake Forest

100.2

2.5

Florida St.

114.7

-12.0

Washington

110.1

3.0

Oregon

108.9

4.2

Washington St.

97.4

2.5

Oregon St.

106.1

-6.2

Weber St.

98.7

2.5

Eastern Washington

94.9

6.3

Wofford

112.9

0.0

VMI

91.6

21.3

Wyoming

90

3.0

New Mexico

99.6

-6.6

Xavier

106.9

3.0

St. John’s

108.2

1.7

Conference Tournaments Update

 

America East Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Vermont (24-6)

8

Maine (5-26)

2

Stony Brook (24-7)

7

Binghamton (9-22)

3

Maryland-Baltimore Co. (19-12)

6

Albany (12-19)

4

Hartford (17-14)

5

UMass Lowell (15-16)

 

 

Big South Conference

Semifinals–Friday, March 8 (at Campbell)

Radford

63

Charleston Southern

54

Gardner-Webb

79

Campbell

74

 

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Radford)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

2

Radford (22-10)

4

Gardner-Webb (22-11)

 

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC

First Round–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

James Madison (13-18)

9

Towson (10-21)

7

Elon (11-20)

10

UNC Wilmington (9-22)

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Site: Times Union Center, Albany, NY (Siena)

Iona

73

Saint Peter’s

71

Canisius

69

Manhattan

65 ot

 

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

Quinnipiac (16-13)

6

Monmouth (12-20)

4

Rider (16-14)

5

Siena (16-15)

 

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)

Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 8

Loyola (Chi)

67

Valparaiso

54

Bradley

61

Missouri St.

58

Drake

78

Illinois St.

62

Northern Iowa

61

Southern Illinois

58

 

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Loyola (Chi.) (20-12)

5

Bradley (18-14)

2

Drake (24-8)

6

Northern Iowa (15-17)

 

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

St. Francis (PA) (17-13)

6

Long Island (16-15)

2

Fairleigh-Dickinson (18-13)

4

Robert Morris (17-15)

 

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

Semifinals–Friday, March 8

Belmont

83

Austin Peay

67

Murray St.

76

Jacksonville St.

74

 

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 9 ****

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Belmont (26-4)

2

Murray St. (26-4)

 

Southern Conference

Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC

First Round–Friday, March 8

VMI

96

Western Carolina

83

Samford

100

The Citadel

71

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Wofford (26-4)

8

VMI (11-20)

4

East Tennessee St. (23-8)

5

Chattanooga (12-19)

2

UNC Greensboro (26-5)

7

Samford (17-15)

3

Furman (24-6)

6

Mercer (11-19)

 

 

Summit League

Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9 & Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1 (sat)

South Dakota St. (24-7)

8

Western Illinois (9-20)

4 (sun)

Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)

5

South Dakota (13-16)

3 (sun)

North Dakota St. (15-15)

6

Oral Roberts (11-20)

2 (sat)

Omaha (19-10)

7

North Dakota (12-17)

 

 

West Coast Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Second Round–Friday, March 8

San Diego

62

Santa Clara

45

Pepperdine

68

Loyola Marymount

65

 

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

BYU (19-12)

6

San Diego (20-13)

4

San Francisco (21-9)

8

Pepperdine (15-17)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, March 8, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Ball St.

103.1

2.5

Northern Illinois

100.7

4.9

Belmont

109.0

0.0

Austin Peay

103.2

5.8

Buffalo

113.7

3.0

Bowling Green

102.9

13.8

Campbell

99.0

2.5

Gardner-Webb

99.3

2.2

Canisius

95.1

0.0

Manhattan

90.9

4.2

Columbia

97.1

2.5

Dartmouth

97.9

1.7

Cornell

95.4

2.5

Harvard

103.6

-5.7

Drake

102.6

0.0

Illinois St.

98.5

4.1

Iona

97.7

0.0

Saint Peter’s

92.0

5.7

Kent St.

101.4

2.5

Akron

103.4

0.5

Loyola (Chi)

103.7

0.0

Valparaiso

98.1

5.6

Loyola Marymount

102.3

0.0

Pepperdine

99.8

2.5

Maryland

113.3

3.0

Minnesota

109.4

6.9

Missouri St.

99.7

0.0

Bradley

99.5

0.2

Murray St.

108.6

0.0

Jacksonville St.

103.1

5.5

Ohio

98.1

2.5

Miami (O)

101.4

-0.8

Penn

103.3

3.0

Yale

105.7

0.6

Princeton

100.2

3.0

Brown

101.3

1.9

Radford

102.7

0.0

Charleston Southern

99.5

3.2

Samford

99.9

0.0

The Citadel

95.2

4.7

Santa Clara

98.3

0.0

San Diego

104.6

-6.3

Southern Illinois

101.8

0.0

Northern Iowa

99.1

2.7

Toledo

108.0

3.0

Eastern Michigan

100.1

10.9

Virginia Commonwealth

111.2

3.0

Saint Joseph’s

99.4

14.8

Virginia Tech

116.3

3.0

Miami (Fla)

107.5

11.8

VMI

91.6

0.0

Western Carolina

93.2

-1.6

Western Michigan

94.7

2.5

Central Michigan

101.8

-4.6

 

Conference Tournaments Update

Big South Conference

Site: Campbell University, Buies Creek, NC

Quarterfinals

Radford

84

Presbyterian

76

Charleston Southern

77

Winthrop

63

Campbell

86

Hampton

77

Gardner-Webb

75

High Point

69

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 8 (at Campbell)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

2

Radford (21-10)

6

Charleston Southern (17-14)

1

Campbell (20-11)

4

Gardner-Webb (21-11)

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Site: Times Union Center, Albany, NY (Siena)

First Round

Saint Peter’s

71

Marist

68 ot

Manhattan

57

Fairfield

53

Monmouth

76

Niagara

72

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 8 

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Iona (14-15)

9

Saint Peter’s (10-21)

4

Rider (16-14)

5

Siena (16-15)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Canisius (14-16)

7

Manhattan (11-20)

3

Quinnipiac (16-13)

6

Monmouth (12-20)

 

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)

Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Valparaiso

77

Indiana St.

55

Illinois St.

65

Evansville

60

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Loyola (Chi) (19-12)

9

Valparaiso (15-17)

4

Missouri St. (16-15)

5

Bradley (17-14)

2

Drake (23-8)

7

Illinois St. (17-15)

3

Southern Illinois (17-14)

6

Northern Iowa (14-17)

 

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Austin Peay

95

Morehead St.

81

Jacksonville St.

88

UT-Martin

81

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Belmont (25-4)

4

Austin Peay (22-10)

2

Murray St. (25-4)

3

Jacksonville St. (24-8)

 

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Colgate

81

Boston U

69

Bucknell

77

Holy Cross

65

Lehigh

78

Army

70

Navy

60

American

56

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Colgate (22-10)

5

Navy (12-18)

2

Bucknell (20-10)

3

Lehigh (20-10)

 

 

Southern Conference

Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC

First Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

VMI (10-20)

9

Western Carolina (7-24)

7

Samford (16-15)

10

The Citadel (12-17)

 

 

West Coast Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Thursday, March 7

San Diego

67

Portland

47

Pepperdine

61

Pacific

53

 

Second Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

6

Santa Clara (16-14)

7

San Diego (19-13)

5

Loyola Marymount (20-10)

8

Pepperdine (14-17)

 

Coming Later Today: Bracketology Update

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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