The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Miami (O) 8.1 8.5 7.0
Bowling Green Kent St. 2.5 1.6 2.6

 

Wednesday October 31
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Toledo Ball St. 20.1 19.3 20.4

 

Thursday November 1
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Ohio U -2.0 -1.6 -1.9
Akron Northern Illinois -2.7 -2.4 -2.7
Central Florida Temple 15.0 15.2 14.6

 

Friday November 2
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Pittsburgh 7.3 8.3 7.2
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 16.7 15.3 17.2
Arizona Colorado 4.9 2.6 4.4

 

Saturday November 3
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU Houston -9.4 -10.6 -10.8
Purdue Iowa -0.3 0.1 -0.2
Georgia St. Texas St. 8.9 8.0 9.2
Wake Forest Syracuse -4.1 -4.7 -5.4
Kentucky Georgia -10.3 -8.5 -11.3
Cincinnati Navy 9.7 9.2 10.5
Ohio St. Nebraska 25.6 24.9 27.1
North Carolina Georgia Tech -11.4 -11.3 -11.6
Florida Missouri 1.6 1.3 1.3
Miami (Fla.) Duke 6.7 7.0 6.7
North Carolina St. Florida St. 7.7 8.0 7.8
East Carolina Memphis -15.1 -16.9 -16.5
Virginia Tech Boston College -2.6 -1.3 -2.8
Maryland Michigan St. -8.6 -7.8 -8.9
Texas Tech Oklahoma -9.2 -9.3 -10.7
Texas West Virginia 0.9 0.3 0.9
Wisconsin Rutgers 30.9 29.5 32.0
Northwestern Notre Dame -11.5 -10.6 -10.6
Illinois Minnesota -8.6 -8.2 -9.4
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 13.0 12.1 13.2
Army Air Force 12.3 12.5 12.4
South Florida Tulane 4.7 6.1 4.3
Coastal Carolina Appalachian St. -16.8 -16.1 -17.6
Boise St. BYU 13.1 12.1 12.6
New Mexico San Diego St. -11.5 -10.3 -12.2
Wyoming San Jose St. 19.3 18.4 20.6
Washington St. California 8.6 9.9 8.6
Southern Miss. Marshall -8.5 -8.0 -9.2
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia Southern -7.1 -8.8 -7.6
Arizona St. Utah -6.8 -6.6 -7.8
Oregon UCLA 13.4 13.6 16.3
Washington Stanford 9.8 10.2 10.6
Kansas Iowa St. -12.2 -12.1 -13.9
Auburn Texas A&M 4.6 4.8 6.2
Tennessee Charlotte 24.9 22.8 23.9
Mississippi St. Louisiana Tech 27.6 23.1 27.2
Baylor Oklahoma St. -6.6 -6.7 -6.9
Massachusetts Liberty 1.2 3.8 1.5
TCU Kansas St. 8.4 8.5 7.8
Tulsa Connecticut 17.8 16.6 19.0
Clemson Louisville 47.2 44.7 48.9
Michigan Penn St. 9.1 10.6 9.8
Ole Miss South Carolina -5.0 -4.4 -4.1
Rice UTEP -3.6 -4.0 -4.8
Troy Louisiana 11.7 10.8 11.9
Arkansas St. South Alabama 13.3 12.9 14.3
UAB UTSA 20.7 19.2 20.8
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic -1.3 1.7 -0.8
LSU Alabama -17.5 -15.8 -17.5
UNLV Fresno St. -28.7 -26.7 -28.9
Hawaii Utah St. -24.1 -23.7 -26.5
Oregon St. USC -20.4 -21.1 -21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
New Mexico St. Alcorn St. 10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3
2 Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1
3 Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8
4 Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7
5 Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0
6 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
7 Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9
8 Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8
9 L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4
10 Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8
11 Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6
12 Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9
13 Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5
14 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
15 Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6
17 Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9
18 Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8
19 West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8
20 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
21 Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1
22 Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9
23 Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9
24 Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4
26 Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1
27 Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0
28 Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9
29 Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7
30 Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5
31 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
32 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
33 N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7
34 Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3
35 Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2
36 Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1
37 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
38 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6
39 Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6
40 Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6
41 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5
42 Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8
43 U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0
44 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9
45 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
46 T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2
47 California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7
48 Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9
49 Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1
50 Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0
51 Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0
54 Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0
55 Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7
56 Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7
57 Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4
58 Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1
59 Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9
60 Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9
61 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3
62 Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3
63 Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1
64 Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0
65 BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8
66 Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8
67 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
68 N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5
69 N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2
70 Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2
71 Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1
72 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
73 Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4
74 Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2
75 U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4
76 Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2
77 Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0
78 U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8
79 Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7
80 Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0
81 Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7
82 South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5
83 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4
84 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1
85 Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8
86 Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3
88 Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2
89 Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0
90 Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5
91 Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4
92 Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1
93 Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4
94 SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3
95 Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2
96 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
97 Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0
98 Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4
99 Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8
100 Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0
101 Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5
102 Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3
103 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
104 Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1
105 Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2
106 Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1
107 Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0
108 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
109 East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2
110 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6
111 U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8
112 Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5
113 Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5
114 Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5
115 Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2
116 Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2
117 W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4
118 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
119 Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4
120 Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2
121 Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1
122 U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1
123 Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8
124 San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4
125 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0
126 Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8
128 Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0
129 N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8
130 Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1 3-1 7-1
South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5 3-1 7-1
East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5 4-0 7-1
Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5 2-2 3-5
Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4 1-3 2-6
SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3 2-2 3-5
Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8 0-4 1-7
AAC Averages 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1 5-0 8-0
Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 6-2
N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7 1-2 5-2
Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6 3-2 6-2
Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9 2-4 4-4
Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4 1-3 4-4
Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1 0-5 2-6
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9 2-3 4-4
Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9 2-2 5-3
Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1 1-3 5-3
Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6 3-1 4-3
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 4-1 6-2
Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0 3-1 4-4
N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5 1-4 1-6
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0 4-1 7-1
West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8 4-1 6-1
Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9 3-2 4-3
Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5 4-1 6-2
Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2 3-2 5-3
Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6 2-3 5-3
T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2 1-4 3-5
Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9 1-4 3-5
Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8 2-3 4-4
Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2 1-4 3-5
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8 3-2 6-2
Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5 4-2 5-3
Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0 3-2 5-3
Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-2 6-2
Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1 3-2 4-4
Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0 3-2 5-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-3
Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3 1-4 4-4
Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0 1-4 2-6
Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0 1-4 3-5
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7 3-1 5-2
Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3 4-1 5-3
Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2 1-3 3-5
Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0 4-0 6-2
Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4 0-4 1-7
Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8 3-2 4-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2 3-2 7-2
U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8 5-0 7-1
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1 4-1 6-2
Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1 2-2 3-4
U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8 0-4 0-8
Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2 0-5 1-8
CUSA Averages 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 8-0
Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1 x 6-2
BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8 x 4-4
Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 3-6
N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8 x 2-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3 4-0 7-1
Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0 3-1 5-3
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4 3-1 3-5
Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4 2-2 4-3
Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4 2-2 4-4
Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7 2-3 4-5
Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0 4-0 5-3
Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2 4-1 6-3
Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0 0-5 1-8
Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5 2-3 3-6
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3 4-0 7-1
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5 4-1 6-2
Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7 1-4 3-5
Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8 1-4 3-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-3 3-5
Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 4-0 7-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 3-1 6-2
Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0 3-2 5-4
U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8 0-4 2-6
Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5 3-2 6-4
San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4 1-3 1-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8 4-2 6-3
Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6 3-2 5-3
Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7 4-1 7-1
Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8 2-3 5-3
California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7 2-3 5-3
Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1 1-4 2-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9 4-2 6-2
U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0 3-3 4-4
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9 2-3 4-4
Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0 3-3 4-5
Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1 2-3 5-3
U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4 2-3 2-6
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8 5-1 7-1
Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7 0-4 4-4
Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8 5-1 7-1
Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1 4-2 6-2
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 3-3 4-3
Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1 1-4 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3 5-0 8-0
L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4 4-1 7-1
Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6 2-3 5-3
Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6 2-3 5-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4 3-2 5-3
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-3 5-3
Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4 4-0 7-1
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 4-0 6-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-2 5-3
Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2 1-3 2-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5 1-3 4-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-2 4-4
UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6 2-2 4-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0 1-3 2-6
Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0 0-4 2-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
7 MWC 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
10 CUSA 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Fresno St.
3 Houston
4 Utah St.
5 Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA [California] Utah St.
Cure AAC SBC [Eastern Michigan] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Coastal Carolina
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC At-Large South Florida [Arizona]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] Middle Tennessee
Bahamas MAC CUSA Northern Illinois Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Western Michigan]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Memphis [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Georgia Tech Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Nevada] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [BYU]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Virginia Tech Tennessee
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Troy
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Georgia
Military AAC ACC Temple Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Purdue Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Fiesta At-large At-large Kentucky Houston
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

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October 3, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 4-8, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:44 am

Another mediocre week by the PiRate Rating selections was offset by another spectacular week by three of our five Land Sharps.

Last week, our official picks went 4-7, to bring the total to date to 22-23-1.  This took our minor profit for the season to a minor loss of 5.7% Return on Investment.  We will include some Money Line parlays that give us better than +150 odds this week in an attempt to get back into the black.  In the past, we have done well when playing 4-game parlays that give us better than +150 odds, but we tend to cash in big on these parlays in November.  Hopefully, October will be nice to us.

As for the Land Sharps, Buckeye Michelle, Friday Dog 13, and Cal Gal Tiffany continue to draw the ire of the kind people in the State of Nevada.  If they keep up this streak, they will not be allowed to patronize the books (Note–every pick on this site is done strictly for entertainment purposes only, so they really have no connection with any books).

Dean615 and Stewed Meat have treaded water so far, as both as exactly .500 in their picks.  In Stewed’s defense, these are this Land Sharp’s “B” picks.  Stewed is a real professional, and Stewed A’s picks last week (college and NFL) went 8-3 including a Parlay win that returned 6 to 1 odds for a big profit.

This week, our Land Sharps have picked between 5 and 9 games.  Because we try not to do the same thing, and we include the NFL in our official picks, we are going with 9 selections–3 vs. spreads, 4, 10-point teasers, and 2 Money Line Parlays.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks 

Margins

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Akron Miami (O) 3 Akron
Baltimore Cleveland 3 Baltimore
San Francisco Arizona 3.5 San Francisco

10-Point Teasers (3-team parlays)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Louisville Georgia Tech 6.5 Georgia Tech
Boston College North Carolina St. 5.5 North Carolina St.
LSU Florida 13 Florida

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Alabama Arkansas 24 Alabama
Clemson Wake Forest 7.5 Clemson
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 2.5 Miami (Fla.)

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
South Florida Massachusetts 4 South Florida
Georgia Southern South Alabama 3.5 Georgia Southern
Ole Miss Louisiana-Monroe 2.5 Ole Miss

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Central Florida SMU 14 Central Florida
Washington St. Oregon St. 6.5 Washington St.
Fresno St. Nevada 2 Fresno St.

 

Money Line Parlays

4 Teams at +168

Winner Loser
North Carolina St. Boston College
Troy Georgia St.
UNLV New Mexico
Miami (Fla.) Florida St.

 

4 Teams at +174

Winner Loser
Liberty New Mexico St.
South Florida Massachusetts
Buffalo Central Michigan
Georgia Southern South Alabama

 

The Land Sharps

Buckeye Michelle

Year to Date: 14-6  70.0%, 37.0% Return on Investment

Connecticut +36 vs. Memphis

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

Minnesota +7.5 vs. Iowa

Air Force +3.5 vs. Navy

UAB +9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Friday Dog 13

Year to Date: 11-5 68.8%, 34.4% Return on Investment

Marshall -6 vs. Middle Tennessee

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Ole Miss -22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

West Virginia -28.5 vs. Kansas

Central Florida -24 vs. SMU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

South Florida -4 vs. Massachusetts

Syracuse -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

Year to Date: 17-9  65.4%, 27.3% Return on Investment

Utah St. +3 vs. BYU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida

Florida St. +13 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Southern -13.5 vs. South Alabama

Auburn -3 vs. Mississippi St.

Georgia -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Stewed Meat

Year to Date: 11-11  50.0%, -5% Return on Investment

Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Louisville

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

Florida +3 vs. LSU

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Colorado -2.5 vs. Arizona St.

Houston & Tulsa UNDER 70.5

Michigan & Maryland UNDER 49

 

Dean615

Year to Date: 7-7  50.0%, -5.0% Return on Investment

Notre Dame -6 vs. Virginia Tech

Wisconsin -17.5 vs. Nebraska

Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Kentucky

Florida & LSU UNDER 44.5

Notre Dame & Virginia Tech OVER 56.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 30, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 6

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday October 4
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Tulsa 15.2 17.1 15.0
Troy Georgia St. 16.2 15.3 16.8

 

Friday October 5
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Marshall Middle Tennesee 7.2 8.8 7.2
Louisville Georgia Tech -9.5 -8.4 -10.0
BYU Utah St. 0.1 -0.9 -0.5

 

Saturday October 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern South Alabama 11.5 11.0 11.3
Massachusetts South Florida -11.7 -11.8 -10.5
Wake Forest Clemson -19.6 -19.1 -22.5
Temple East Carolina 15.0 15.0 15.9
Ball St. Northern Illinois -8.3 -6.7 -8.5
Pittsburgh Syracuse -7.4 -6.3 -7.6
Central Florida SMU 26.2 26.8 27.6
Florida Atlantic Old Dominion 16.2 12.7 16.7
Ohio St. Indiana 33.1 31.6 34.2
North Carolina St. Boston College 2.0 4.4 1.9
Florida LSU 1.8 -0.4 1.4
South Carolina Missouri 0.6 1.1 -1.0
Michigan Maryland 21.9 22.1 23.2
Cincinnati Tulane 3.6 4.9 4.1
Kent St. Ohio U -13.5 -13.8 -14.7
Western Michigan Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.7 1.4
Central Michigan Buffalo -8.7 -8.3 -9.3
Akron Miami (O) 9.3 8.8 7.0
Virginia Tech Notre Dame -6.7 -4.1 -5.4
Rutgers Illinois -1.1 -1.7 -1.8
Boise St. San Diego St. 17.5 16.4 17.2
Colorado Arizona St. -2.3 0.6 -1.1
New Mexico St. Liberty -3.2 0.2 -3.3
UTEP North Texas -32.0 -31.3 -33.5
UCLA Washington -27.8 -25.9 -32.5
Stanford Utah 10.5 9.5 10.2
Nevada Fresno St. -16.5 -15.3 -16.8
Oregon St. Washington St. -20.0 -21.4 -21.0
Arizona California -3.1 -2.0 -2.3
UNLV New Mexico 8.2 8.1 8.5
Michigan St. Northwestern 13.3 13.2 12.8
West Virginia Kansas 18.7 19.3 20.3
Arkansas Alabama -37.0 -37.3 -40.1
Louisiana Tech UAB 8.6 8.8 9.7
Texas A&M Kentucky 2.1 1.8 2.2
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 6.4 6.4 7.1
Georgia Vanderbilt 33.8 29.8 35.0
Minnesota Iowa -6.5 -4.6 -5.8
Toledo Bowling Green 19.9 21.3 20.0
Mississippi St. Auburn 2.0 0.5 0.5
Air Force Navy -0.7 -3.0 -0.7
Ole Miss UL-Monroe 22.0 21.7 22.0
Texas (n) Oklahoma -8.3 -8.4 -9.5
Memphis Connecticut 28.9 30.4 30.9
Texas St. Louisiana -4.0 -2.7 -5.3
Rice UTSA -6.3 -7.7 -8.1
Baylor Kansas St. 2.3 1.7 3.0
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 14.7 14.2 15.2
Wisconsin Nebraska 26.8 25.8 29.0
San Jose St. Colorado St. -1.2 -1.2 -3.0
Hawaii Wyoming -11.6 -9.2 -12.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive ratings.  While past results are a major factor, these are not rankings based on what the teams have done so far.  Some teams will be ranked ahead of teams that beat them.  We are only trying to rate the teams based on what they should do in their next game.  Thus, our goal is to beat the spread and pick winners rather than be a report card for each team.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.0 137.9 141.9 139.9
2 Georgia 131.1 127.6 132.1 130.2
3 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
4 Clemson 129.2 126.5 129.8 128.5
5 Washington 125.6 123.5 127.5 125.5
6 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
7 Penn St. 123.5 120.8 124.0 122.8
8 Notre Dame 124.1 120.9 123.0 122.6
9 Oklahoma 120.8 119.5 121.4 120.6
10 Auburn 119.4 118.3 121.3 119.7
11 Michigan St. 120.3 118.3 119.8 119.5
12 Miami 118.3 117.0 118.2 117.9
13 Mississippi St. 118.4 115.7 118.8 117.7
14 Wisconsin 118.4 115.8 118.2 117.5
15 Stanford 118.2 115.5 118.4 117.4
16 L S U 115.4 115.6 116.6 115.9
17 Central Florida 115.0 115.1 115.5 115.2
18 Missouri 114.8 113.2 116.0 114.6
19 Boise St. 114.3 113.6 114.9 114.3
20 Virginia Tech 114.4 113.8 114.5 114.2
21 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
22 West Virginia 114.5 113.7 114.1 114.1
23 Boston College 114.8 112.0 114.6 113.8
24 Florida 114.2 112.3 115.0 113.8
25 N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.4 113.5 113.6
26 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
27 Oregon 112.9 112.9 113.6 113.1
28 Duke 113.8 111.5 113.2 112.9
29 Oklahoma St. 113.2 111.5 113.4 112.7
30 T C U 112.9 111.9 111.7 112.1
31 Iowa 113.2 110.7 112.4 112.1
32 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.0 111.9
33 Texas 112.5 111.1 111.9 111.8
34 Utah 110.7 108.9 111.2 110.3
35 Fresno St. 110.5 109.2 110.6 110.1
36 Georgia Tech 110.0 108.9 109.6 109.5
37 Syracuse 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5
38 Northwestern 110.0 108.2 110.0 109.4
39 Iowa State 109.8 108.0 109.2 109.0
40 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
41 U S C 109.4 107.6 108.6 108.5
42 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.2 107.9
43 Texas Tech 108.4 107.0 107.1 107.5
44 California 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.9
45 Purdue 107.5 105.9 107.1 106.8
46 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
47 Wake Forest 107.2 104.9 104.8 105.6
48 Utah St. 103.7 105.0 105.0 104.6
49 N. Texas 103.1 105.5 103.9 104.1
50 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
51 Colorado 103.1 104.7 104.2 104.0
52 Virginia 103.8 104.3 102.9 103.7
53 Minnesota 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5
54 Houston 102.9 103.7 103.1 103.2
55 BYU 102.3 102.6 103.0 102.6
56 Army 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.6
57 Kansas St. 103.3 101.9 102.1 102.4
58 Baylor 102.6 100.6 102.1 101.8
59 Memphis 100.8 102.6 101.5 101.6
60 Ole Miss 101.7 101.3 101.9 101.6
61 Arizona 101.9 100.3 102.1 101.4
62 Vanderbilt 100.2 100.8 100.1 100.4
63 San Diego St. 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.2
64 Pittsburgh 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.4
65 Appalachian St. 98.1 99.8 99.6 99.1
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.0 99.0
67 South Florida 98.2 100.3 98.2 98.9
68 Temple 98.7 98.6 99.4 98.9
69 Arkansas 100.1 97.6 98.8 98.8
70 N. Carolina 98.7 97.6 97.9 98.1
71 Toledo 97.6 98.9 97.5 98.0
72 Louisville 98.0 98.0 97.2 97.7
73 Buffalo 96.7 98.8 97.7 97.7
74 Kansas 98.8 97.3 96.8 97.6
75 Cincinnati 96.6 98.2 96.9 97.2
76 Florida Atlantic 96.8 97.2 97.2 97.1
77 Louisiana Tech 95.5 97.9 97.0 96.8
78 Tennessee 96.4 96.8 95.7 96.3
79 Navy 95.5 98.0 95.1 96.2
80 Wyoming 96.3 96.1 95.9 96.1
81 Marshall 94.3 97.0 95.3 95.6
82 Tulane 95.4 95.8 95.3 95.5
83 Akron 94.9 96.1 95.2 95.4
84 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.6 94.8 95.1
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.2 94.6 94.6
86 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.6 94.0 94.0
87 U C L A 94.8 94.6 92.0 93.8
88 Nebraska 94.6 93.0 92.2 93.2
89 Troy 92.1 93.5 93.6 93.1
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Air Force 91.8 92.0 91.4 91.7
92 Illinois 91.8 91.5 90.8 91.4
93 SMU 91.9 91.3 90.9 91.4
94 Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.4 90.1 90.9
95 Nevada 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.9
96 Middle Tennessee 90.1 91.2 91.1 90.8
97 U N L V 89.9 91.4 90.3 90.5
98 Tulsa 90.8 89.6 91.1 90.5
99 U A B 89.3 91.6 89.7 90.2
100 Arkansas St. 88.9 90.3 90.5 89.9
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 Georgia Southern 87.5 89.0 88.1 88.2
103 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 86.0 86.8
104 Central Michigan 85.5 88.0 86.0 86.5
105 East Carolina 86.2 86.1 86.0 86.1
106 Southern Miss. 84.5 87.6 85.3 85.8
107 W. Kentucky 83.9 87.1 85.1 85.4
108 New Mexico 84.7 86.3 84.8 85.3
109 Oregon St. 86.3 83.9 84.5 84.9
110 Old Dominion 83.6 87.5 83.4 84.9
111 Ball St. 84.1 86.5 83.8 84.8
112 Massachusetts 83.5 85.5 84.7 84.6
113 Colo. State 82.9 83.7 82.8 83.1
114 UL-Monroe 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.2
115 Hawaii 80.7 82.9 79.5 81.0
116 Liberty 81.1 79.9 81.3 80.8
117 U T S A 78.7 82.9 79.1 80.3
118 Bowling Green 80.2 80.1 80.0 80.1
119 Georgia St. 79.0 81.1 79.8 80.0
120 South Alabama 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
121 Coastal Carolina 78.7 81.5 79.3 79.8
122 Louisiana 77.8 79.7 78.8 78.8
123 San Jose St. 78.6 79.5 76.8 78.3
124 Kent St. 77.9 78.9 77.3 78.0
125 N. Mexico St. 74.9 77.1 75.0 75.7
126 Charlotte 74.4 76.6 74.3 75.1
127 Connecticut 74.9 75.2 73.6 74.6
128 Texas State 71.3 74.5 70.9 72.2
129 Rice 69.9 72.7 68.5 70.4
130 U T E P 68.6 71.7 68.0 69.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.0 115.1 115.5 115.2 1-0 4-0
South Florida 98.2 100.3 98.2 98.9 1-0 4-0
Temple 98.7 98.6 99.4 98.9 1-0 2-3
Cincinnati 96.6 98.2 96.9 97.2 1-0 5-0
East Carolina 86.2 86.1 86.0 86.1 0-1 2-2
Connecticut 74.9 75.2 73.6 74.6 0-2 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.7 103.1 103.2 0-0 3-1
Memphis 100.8 102.6 101.5 101.6 0-2 3-2
Navy 95.5 98.0 95.1 96.2 1-1 2-2
Tulane 95.4 95.8 95.3 95.5 1-0 2-3
SMU 91.9 91.3 90.9 91.4 1-0 2-3
Tulsa 90.8 89.6 91.1 90.5 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.6 96.2 95.6 95.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.2 126.5 129.8 128.5 1-0 4-0
Boston College 114.8 112.0 114.6 113.8 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.4 113.5 113.6 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 107.2 104.9 104.8 105.6 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.0 98.0 97.2 97.7 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 118.3 117.0 118.2 117.9 0-0 3-1
Virginia Tech 114.4 113.8 114.5 114.2 1-0 2-1
Duke 113.8 111.5 113.2 112.9 0-0 4-0
Georgia Tech 110.0 108.9 109.6 109.5 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.8 104.3 102.9 103.7 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.4 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 98.7 97.6 97.9 98.1 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.8 119.5 121.4 120.6 2-0 5-0
West Virginia 114.5 113.7 114.1 114.1 2-0 4-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 111.5 113.4 112.7 1-1 4-1
T C U 112.9 111.9 111.7 112.1 1-1 3-2
Texas 112.5 111.1 111.9 111.8 2-0 4-1
Iowa State 109.8 108.0 109.2 109.0 0-2 1-3
Texas Tech 108.4 107.0 107.1 107.5 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.3 101.9 102.1 102.4 0-2 2-3
Baylor 102.6 100.6 102.1 101.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas 98.8 97.3 96.8 97.6 0-2 2-3
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 2-0 5-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 2-0 4-1
Penn St. 123.5 120.8 124.0 122.8 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 120.3 118.3 119.8 119.5 2-0 3-1
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.0 99.0 1-1 4-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 86.0 86.8 0-2 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.4 115.8 118.2 117.5 1-0 3-1
Iowa 113.2 110.7 112.4 112.1 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 110.0 108.2 110.0 109.4 1-1 1-3
Purdue 107.5 105.9 107.1 106.8 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.6 93.0 92.2 93.2 0-2 0-4
Illinois 91.8 91.5 90.8 91.4 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 96.8 97.2 97.2 97.1 0-1 2-3
Marshall 94.3 97.0 95.3 95.6 1-0 3-1
Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.4 90.1 90.9 1-0 3-2
Middle Tennessee 90.1 91.2 91.1 90.8 1-0 2-2
W. Kentucky 83.9 87.1 85.1 85.4 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.6 87.5 83.4 84.9 0-2 1-4
Charlotte 74.4 76.6 74.3 75.1 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 103.1 105.5 103.9 104.1 0-1 4-1
Louisiana Tech 95.5 97.9 97.0 96.8 1-0 3-1
U A B 89.3 91.6 89.7 90.2 1-0 3-1
Southern Miss. 84.5 87.6 85.3 85.8 1-0 2-2
U T S A 78.7 82.9 79.1 80.3 1-0 2-3
Rice 69.9 72.7 68.5 70.4 0-1 1-4
U T E P 68.6 71.7 68.0 69.4 0-1 0-5
CUSA Averages 85.9 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.1 120.9 123.0 122.6 x 5-0
BYU 102.3 102.6 103.0 102.6 x 3-2
Army 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.6 x 3-2
Massachusetts 83.5 85.5 84.7 84.6 x 2-4
Liberty 81.1 79.9 81.3 80.8 x 2-2
N. Mexico St. 74.9 77.1 75.0 75.7 x 1-4
Independents Averages 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.7 98.8 97.7 97.7 1-0 4-1
Akron 94.9 96.1 95.2 95.4 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.9 95.2 94.6 94.6 0-0 2-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-1 1-4
Bowling Green 80.2 80.1 80.0 80.1 0-1 1-4
Kent St. 77.9 78.9 77.3 78.0 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.6 98.9 97.5 98.0 0-0 2-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.6 94.8 95.1 2-0 2-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.6 94.0 94.0 0-2 2-3
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 1-0 3-2
Central Michigan 85.5 88.0 86.0 86.5 0-1 1-4
Ball St. 84.1 86.5 83.8 84.8 1-0 2-3
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 114.3 113.6 114.9 114.3 1-0 3-1
Utah St. 103.7 105.0 105.0 104.6 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.3 96.1 95.9 96.1 0-1 2-3
Air Force 91.8 92.0 91.4 91.7 0-2 1-3
New Mexico 84.7 86.3 84.8 85.3 0-0 2-2
Colo. State 82.9 83.7 82.8 83.1 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.5 109.2 110.6 110.1 0-0 3-1
San Diego St. 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.2 0-0 3-1
Nevada 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.9 1-0 3-2
U N L V 89.9 91.4 90.3 90.5 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.7 82.9 79.5 81.0 2-0 5-1
San Jose St. 78.6 79.5 76.8 78.3 0-1 0-4
MWC Averages 93.7 94.2 93.6 93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.6 123.5 127.5 125.5 2-0 4-1
Stanford 118.2 115.5 118.4 117.4 2-0 4-1
Oregon 112.9 112.9 113.6 113.1 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 1-1 4-1
California 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.9 0-1 3-1
Oregon St. 86.3 83.9 84.5 84.9 0-2 1-4
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 110.7 108.9 111.2 110.3 0-2 2-2
U S C 109.4 107.6 108.6 108.5 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.2 107.9 1-1 3-2
Colorado 103.1 104.7 104.2 104.0 1-0 4-0
Arizona 101.9 100.3 102.1 101.4 1-1 2-3
U C L A 94.8 94.6 92.0 93.8 0-1 0-4
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.0 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.1 127.6 132.1 130.2 3-0 5-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 116.0 114.6 0-1 3-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-0 5-0
Florida 114.2 112.3 115.0 113.8 2-1 4-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.0 111.9 1-2 2-2
Vanderbilt 100.2 100.8 100.1 100.4 0-1 3-2
Tennessee 96.4 96.8 95.7 96.3 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.0 137.9 141.9 139.9 2-0 5-0
Auburn 119.4 118.3 121.3 119.7 1-1 4-1
Mississippi St. 118.4 115.7 118.8 117.7 0-2 3-2
L S U 115.4 115.6 116.6 115.9 2-0 5-0
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 1-1 3-2
Ole Miss 101.7 101.3 101.9 101.6 0-2 3-2
Arkansas 100.1 97.6 98.8 98.8 0-2 1-4
SEC Averages 113.7 112.4 114.2 113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.1 99.8 99.6 99.1 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.5 93.6 93.1 2-0 4-1
Georgia Southern 87.5 89.0 88.1 88.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 79.0 81.1 79.8 80.0 1-0 2-3
Coastal Carolina 78.7 81.5 79.3 79.8 1-1 3-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.9 90.3 90.5 89.9 0-1 3-2
UL-Monroe 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.2 0-2 2-3
South Alabama 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 1-4
Louisiana 77.8 79.7 78.8 78.8 0-1 1-3
Texas State 71.3 74.5 70.9 72.2 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.4 85.2 84.3 84.3

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.7 112.4 114.2 113.4
2 ACC 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
3 B12 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
5 P-12 107.4 106.0 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.6 96.2 95.6 95.8
7 IND 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.8
8 MWC 93.7 94.2 93.6 93.8
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.9 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.4 85.2 84.3 84.3

The Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. Central Florida
  2. South Florida
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Boise St.
  5. Fresno St.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC [Liberty] Coastal Carolina
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. California
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Appalachian St.
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati Marshall
Bahamas AAC CUSA South Florida North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Northern Illinois Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt 5-7
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Wyoming] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Toledo Northwestern 5-7
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC [BYU] [UNLV]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Michigan St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Texas
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Georgia Central Florida
Military AAC ACC [Utah] Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Washington St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota Florida
Fiesta At-large At-large Penn St. Oregon
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Clemson
Orange Ohio St. Notre Dame
Championship Alabama Notre Dame
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
Teams in Italics are 5-7 that qualify based on top APR scores

FBS Power 5 Schools That May Have New Coaches in 2019

There are sites where they list 10-50 head coaches on the hot seat.  Some of these are ridiculous, as they place secure coaches on their lists just to fill up space.  Some of these lists are not updated frequently, as they continue to list already dismissed coaches as being on a hot seat.

The majority of you reading this care mostly about the Power 5 schools.  We have a list of six coaches legitimately on the hot seat after one month of the football season has been played.  Additionally, we added one other that could be a one year hire.

We present the top 6 in reverse order with number one being the most likely candidate to not be his team’s head coach in 2019.

6. Texas Tech–Kliff Kingsbury

If Texas Tech can get to a bowl this year, Kingsbury will most likely get a one year reprieve.  The Red Raiders have an upset win over Oklahoma State, and this gives TTU a chance to make it to 6-6 and earn a low tier bowl.

5. Rutgers–Chris Ash

Rutgers has done very little in Ash’s first two seasons, and they are headed for a last place finish in the Big Ten East this year.  Losing to Kansas and Buffalo has harmed his job status, but transitioning to the Big Ten has been very difficult.  Ash may get one more year to try to turn the program around.

4. Georgia Tech–Paul Johnson

The fans of the Yellow Jackets have grown a little tired of watching their team rush for 300 yards per game and give up a ton of passing yards, while losing a lot of close games.  The problem with dismissing Johnson is that either Tech will have to go through a rough transition moving from the option offense to a more conventional offense, possibly having a weak offense for the next two (even three) years, or they will have to hire another option style coach, like Army’s Jeff Monken.  Tech is most likely headed to another sub .500 record.

3. Larry Fedora–North Carolina

Unless the Tar Heels make a miraculous turnaround and beat several ACC opponents, including Duke, and then they sneak into a minor bowl game, Fedora is most likely out after this season.  UNC has one ACC Coastal Division title and no conference championships in Fedora’s tenure, and the school has been in the headlines for the wrong reasons too many times in recent years.

2. Lovie Smith–Illinois

Illinois last had a winning season in 2011, and that team went 7-6 by beating a 6-7 UCLA team in a bowl and beating a slate of weak opponents.  The Illini last had a really successful season in 2007 when they snuck into the Rose Bowl.  This isn’t a sexy program, but there is no reason it cannot compete in the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions.  Smith’s teams in Champaign-Urbana have yet to show any intent on competing.  If Illinois loses at Nebraska in November, the announcement could come before they play their next game.

1 D.J. Durkin–Maryland

This one is obvious.  Durkin is holding on to this job strictly on a technicality at the moment, as he is on leave pending a hearing into the death of former player Jordan McNair.  We can see no way that Durkin will keep this job.  Whether interim head coach Matt Canada can win enough games to become the full-time coach is debatable, as the school may choose to clean house and start from scratch like it once did with its basketball program when it rambled out of control.

Could He Be One and Done?

One coach not on the hot seat list above is Arizona coach Kevin Sumlin.  Sumlin has not been the best fit with the talent on hand in Tucson, and the Cardinals are looking like a last place team in the weaker South Division in the Pac-12.

Sumlin inherited the top dual threat quarterback in the nation in Khalil Tate.  Last year under previous coach Rich Rodriguez, Tate rushed for 1,411 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging more than nine yards per rush.  He threw for 1,591 yards and 14 touchdowns.  He missed two games and part of another, so with 8 offensive starters returning, including their top-rate leader, Arizona was expected to score as many points per game as they did last year, if not more.  How many did they average in 2017?  41.3 points per game ranked among the national leaders.

Arizona returned nearly every player that caught a pass and their top non-QB runner.  The offense under Rich Rod would have expected to top 500 yards per game and 40 points per game for sure.

Sumlin has turned Tate into a drop back passer, and the results have been disastrous.  Through five games this year, Tate averages a measley 14 rushing yards per game.  His passing efficiency is down, mostly due to a much lower completion percentage.  Most importantly, the Wildcats are averaging 24 points per game against FBS opponents.  A 3-9 record is the most likely scenario, but that assumes ‘Zona will beat UCLA.

Sumlin has one saving grace.  The school will basically have to mortgage the football stadium to buy out his contract this year or next year, unless they can find cause to dismiss him.  Cause does not mean going 2-10.  He would have to be culpable in a violation of rules or school policy.

Coaches Likely To Receive Promotions To Better Jobs

There are some obvious names that are likely to be candidates to move up to bigger and better jobs in 2019.  It depends on which jobs come open.  You never know when somebody might retire, take an NFL job, or step down due to health reasons.  What if Nick Saban goes 15-0 and decides he has nothing more to prove at Alabama?  He might decide that he has one more chance at a Lomardi Trophy.  Others that potentially could retire include Bill Snyder at Kansas State, Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, David Cutcliffe at Duke, and even Mark Dantonio at Michigan State.

Who would be the key candidates that some school’s athletic director and board members might look to when they fill these jobs?

Coaches already at Power 5 Schools

1. Matt Campbell–Iowa St.

Campbell has turned Iowa State into a serious player in the Big 12, but this program has so many liabilities trying to compete with Oklahoma and Texas.  It isn’t likely that Campbell can sustain success over the long haul in Ames, so he might look to strike while the iron is hot, as it might start to cool after this season.

2. Bronco Mendenhall–Virginia

Mendenhall won at BYU and was a somewhat surprising choice for the Cavaliers’ job.  After a slow rebuilding process, he has made the Cavs a decent team that should earn a second consecutive bowl appearance.  This has never been a major football power, and Mendenhall maybe has one more job left in his resume.

3. Jeff Brohm–Purdue

Brohm won at Western Kentucky and immediately won at Purdue last year, taking the Boilermakers to their first bowl game in five years.  This is a hard place to win, but it has been done before.  However, Purdue is a basketball school, and other football powers can offer Brohm more than Purdue can match.  If he can get the Boilermakers back to a bowl this year after  an 0-3 start, somebody may come after him.

4. Mike Leach–Washington State

This would be a long shot, but Leach has been offered new job opportunities in the past 12 months.  He chose to stay in Pullman.  If you have never been to this part of the country, Pullman is in one of the most beautiful areas, offering lifelong Westerners like Leach something he could not find in the East or South.  The Palouse can transform an Instagrammer into the next Ansel Adams.  Leach might like to finish his career in this Heaven on Earth.  The contract to lure him away would have to be guaranteed with several million dollars per year offered.

Group  of 5 Head Coaches

Bryan Harsin–Boise St.

Harsin has become the next great Boise State head coach.  Dirk Koetter could not win at Arizona State after leaving Boise.  Dan Hawkins failed at Colorado.  Chris Petersen has become a major success at Washington, so one of the three great Bronco coaches has been able to do the trick away from the field of blue.

Craig Bohl–Wyoming

Bohl helped create the FCS dynasty at North Dakota State, winning three consecutive national titles.  He’s done an admirable job at Wyoming, where even though the state produces few FBS-caliber recruits, this program has a long history of being viable.  Bohl’s biggest liability is the one he can do nothing about–he’s 61 years old.

Scott Satterfield–Appalachian State

It seems like it is just a matter of time before some school comes after him and then offers him what it will take to get him to sign on the dotted line.  The Sun Belt Conference might never produce a New Year’s Six Bowl team, because it generally ranks last among the Group of 5.  Appalachian State might be good enough to play in an upper tier December bowl game if given the chance, but it isn’t likely to happen.  A 12-1 season is quite possible this year, and it will only lead to a bowl like the Camellia, Dollar General, or New Orleans.

Neal Brown–Troy

Brown is exactly like Satterfield.  He has done an incredible job at Troy and should continue to receive attention from other schools looking to fill vacancies.  Beating LSU last year and Nebraska this year will move him onto some school’s short list in December.

Five Coordinators at FBS Schools That Should Become Head Coaches One Day

Dave Arranda–LSU Defensive Coordinator

Mike Bloomgren–Stanford Offensive Coordinator

Tee Martin–USC Offensive Coordinator

Todd Orlando–Texas Defensive Coordinator

Brent Venables–Clemson Defensive Coordinator

 

Five FCS Head Coaches That Could Become FBS Head Coaches

Brian Bohannon–Kennesaw State (An option style coach)

John Grass–Jacksonville State

Lance Guidry–McNeese State

Mike Houston–James Madison

Chris Klieman–North Dakota State

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Tulsa 8.4 9.6 8.3

 

Friday September 21
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Central Florida Florida Atlantic 17.3 16.5 16.6
Illinois Penn St. -26.8 -23.9 -28.2
USC Washington St. 2.8 1.8 3.1

 

Saturday September 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Akron 18.5 15.2 17.5
Marshall North Carolina St. -16.0 -12.5 -14.4
Massachusetts Charlotte 10.2 9.7 11.0
Indiana Michigan St. -20.5 -18.8 -20.5
Maryland Minnesota -2.4 -3.4 -3.3
Ball St. Western Kentucky 1.6 0.6 -0.2
Purdue Boston College -10.2 -9.0 -11.1
Syracuse Connecticut 33.9 32.3 34.3
Miami (Fla.) Florida Int’l. 32.4 26.6 31.4
North Carolina Pittsburgh 0.8 0.0 0.6
Florida St. Northern Illinois 13.6 11.8 13.0
Bowling Green Miami (O) -3.6 -5.3 -4.1
Ohio St. Tulane 37.3 34.7 38.4
Georgia Tech Clemson -18.0 -15.8 -19.2
Cincinnati Ohio U 1.8 2.2 1.0
South Florida East Carolina 15.4 18.9 17.0
Wake Forest Notre Dame -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Toledo Nevada 9.0 10.8 9.1
Virginia Louisville 4.8 5.2 4.4
Georgia St. Western Michigan -11.4 -10.3 -11.3
Rutgers Buffalo -2.3 -5.5 -5.7
Oregon St. Arizona -10.1 -10.8 -11.6
Oregon Stanford -5.6 -3.0 -5.5
Tennessee Florida -10.9 -8.8 -12.0
Kentucky Mississippi St. -12.1 -10.6 -12.9
Michigan Nebraska 26.9 27.2 29.8
West Virginia Kansas St. 9.5 10.0 9.8
Ole Miss Kent St. 26.5 25.3 28.1
Southern Miss. Rice 14.9 15.1 16.7
Auburn Arkansas 24.7 26.1 28.6
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 14.7 14.3 16.3
SMU Navy -1.6 -5.2 -2.3
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 3.7 2.6 4.1
Arkansas St. UNLV 2.6 2.3 3.9
Texas TCU 0.2 -0.4 0.4
Oklahoma Army 29.5 27.8 30.2
LSU Louisiana Tech 23.0 20.4 22.9
Baylor Kansas 4.4 3.3 5.9
Vanderbilt South Carolina -7.1 -5.2 -6.3
Memphis South Alabama 26.8 27.0 27.3
Utah St. Air Force 13.2 14.6 15.3
UTEP New Mexico St. -3.9 -3.1 -4.5
UTSA Texas St. 11.1 12.4 12.5
UL-Monroe Troy -1.2 -2.9 -2.0
Old Dominion Virginia Tech -34.2 -29.7 -34.3
Liberty North Texas -17.1 -21.5 -17.8
Missouri Georgia -14.7 -12.5 -14.9
Alabama Texas A&M 28.9 28.0 30.4
Iowa Wisconsin 0.3 0.6 0.1
Washington Arizona St. 22.5 21.5 25.4
San Diego St. Eastern Michigan 10.9 10.1 11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Colorado St. Illinois St. 10.5
Central Michigan Maine 5.0
Duke UNC-Central 49.9
Appalachian St. Gardner-Webb 40.9
BYU McNeese St. 19.0
Houston Texas Southern 45.6
Hawaii Duquesne 27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2
2 Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4
3 Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1
5 Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7
6 Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1
7 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
8 Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0
9 Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9
10 Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8
11 Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7
12 Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4
13 Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6
14 Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3
15 Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3
16 Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3
17 Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0
18 Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9
19 Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7
20 L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4
21 Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5
23 Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4
24 Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3
25 N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3
26 Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1
27 Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0
28 S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7
29 Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7
30 West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5
31 Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8
32 Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6
33 Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3
34 Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4
35 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
36 Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8
37 Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4
38 Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4
39 California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3
40 Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3
41 Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2
42 U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0
43 Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6
45 Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5
46 Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2
48 Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7
49 Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5
50 Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2
51 Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1
52 Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0
54 BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6
55 N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5
56 Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0
59 Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0
60 Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4
61 San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7
62 Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6
63 Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4
64 Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2
65 N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0
66 Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9
67 South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4
68 Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8
69 Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7
70 Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2
71 Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3
72 Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1
73 Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1
74 Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8
75 Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6
76 Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2
79 Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0
80 Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5
81 Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4
82 U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1
83 Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0
84 Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6
86 Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3
87 Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7
88 Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2
89 Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9
90 Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6
91 Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8
92 Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7
93 Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1
94 Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0
95 SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8
96 U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7
98 Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8
99 U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7
100 Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7
101 Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6
102 Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2
103 New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6
104 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9
105 UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8
106 Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7
107 East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3
108 Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0
109 W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5
110 Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3
111 Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2
112 Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8
113 Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5
114 Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7
115 South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2
116 U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2
117 Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
119 Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7
120 Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5
121 Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5
122 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0
123 Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2
124 San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2
125 Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7
126 Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9
127 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4
128 Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6
129 Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4 0-0 3-0
Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3 0-0 1-2
Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7 0-0 3-0
East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-1 2-1
Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4 0-0 2-1
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 2-1
Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3 0-0 1-2
Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1 0-0 1-2
SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8 0-0 0-3
AAC Averages 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0 0-0 3-0
Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3 1-0 3-0
N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2 1-0 3-0
Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1 0-1 2-1
Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2 0-2 1-2
Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2 0-0 2-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3 0-0 2-1
Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7 0-0 3-0
Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8 0-1 1-2
Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0 1-0 2-1
Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0 0-0 2-1
N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9 0-0 3-0
T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5 0-0 2-1
West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5 0-0 2-0
Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6 0-0 2-1
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-1 0-2
Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7 0-0 2-1
Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8 0-0 2-1
Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4 0-0 2-1
Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9 0-0 2-1
Big 12 Averages 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1 1-0 3-0
Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0 0-0 2-1
Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9 0-0 3-0
Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8 0-0 1-1
Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4 0-0 2-1
Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8 0-0 3-0
Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0 0-0 2-1
Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3 0-0 3-0
Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4 1-0 1-2
Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5 0-0 3-0
Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2 0-1 0-3
Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1 0-0 0-2
Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6 0-0 2-1
Big Ten Averages 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7 0-0 2-1
Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7 0-0 1-2
Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2 1-0 2-1
W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5 0-0 0-3
Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1 0-2 0-3
Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9 1-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5 0-0 3-0
Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8 0-0 2-0
U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2 0-0 0-3
Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6 0-0 0-3
CUSA Averages 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6 x 3-0
BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6 x 2-1
Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2 x 2-1
Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3 x 1-3
Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4 x 0-4
Indep. Averages 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6 1-0 3-0
Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6 0-0 1-1
Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8 0-0 0-3
Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5 0-0 1-2
Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5 1-0 1-2
Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9 0-1 2-1
Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7 0-0 1-2
Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0 0-1 0-3
Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7 0-0 1-2
MAC Averages 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5 0-0 2-1
Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7 0-0 2-1
Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0 0-0 2-1
U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7 0-0 2-1
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 3-1
San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7 1-0 2-1
Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4 1-0 3-0
Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7 0-0 3-0
Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4 0-0 3-0
California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7 0-0 1-2
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0 0-1 1-2
Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6 0-0 2-1
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 3-0
Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6 0-0 1-2
U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4 1-0 3-0
Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-0 3-0
S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3 0-1 2-1
Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3 1-0 3-0
Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0 0-0 2-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8 0-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2 1-0 3-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1 0-0 3-0
Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7 0-1 2-1
L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4 1-0 3-0
Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1 0-0 2-1
Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1 0-1 2-1
Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2 0-0 1-2
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4 0-0 1-1
Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8 0-0 2-1
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0 0-0 2-1
Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7 0-0 2-1
UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8 0-0 2-1
South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2 1-0 1-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5 0-0 1-1
Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6 0-1 1-2
Sun Belt Averages 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
3 B12 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
4 BTEN 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
6 AAC 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
7 MWC 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
8 IND 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
11 SUN 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

This Week’s Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. South Florida
  2. Central Florida
  3. North Texas
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. [Northern Illinois]
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Marshall Western Michigan
Frisco AAC MAC [Utah] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Buffalo Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [BYU]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Army] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Wake Forest Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech California
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Boston College Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. South Carolina
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Washington
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Syracuse Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oregon North Texas
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Texas A&M
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Mississippi St.
PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Penn St. Georgia
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Clemson
Champ. Game Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Sweet 16 Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Washington State at USC  10:30 PM  on ESPN

USC has dropped consecutive road games, the most previous not being all that close.  With a true freshman quarterback and his top receiver also being a true freshman, can the Trojans score enough points against the Air Raid offense of the Pirate, Mike Leach.

Washington State is 3-0 but has yet to face strong competition, but if the Cougars can win this game, they become a contender for the Pac-12 North Division title.

Saturday
12:00 Noon

Georgia at Missouri  ESPN

Georgia should win this game by playing smashmouth football against a Missouri defense that just gave up a lot of points and yards against Purdue.  However, the Tigers may have overlooked an 0-2 team.  Still, Georgia looks invincible at least until they travel to the Bayou later in the season.

Minnesota at Maryland  BTN

All of a sudden, the Big Ten West looks open for more than one team.  Minnesota is a silent 3-0, and a win in College Park could find the Gophers ranked and in contention for the division flag.

Maryland’s win over Texas would have meant a lot more had they not gotten their Terrapin shell handed to them by lowly Temple.  The Terps must win this game to have any chance at becoming bowl eligible.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest ABC

Notre Dame is a very soft 3-0, and they have played all three games at home.  This will be the Irish’s first road game and first ACC opponent of the season.  They play at a Wake Forest team that made a valiant comeback that came up a bit short against Boston College.  Notre Dame must go 12-0 or 11-1 with a lot of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.

3:30 PM

Clemson at Georgia Tech ABC

We are not going to tell you that this game should be close, but…..

Clemson has not really fired on all cylinders yet.  It can be hard to play two separate offensive game plans every week, and the two quarterback system may prove to be a liability at some point.

The Tigers have been upset both of the last two years in conference play.  We don’t expect this to be one of those games, but we are anxious to see how CU uses their two QBs in conference play.

Georgia Tech’s multiple option offense should be forced into more passing situations against the top defensive front in the nation, but should Clemson’s offense not sustain a good number of drives, the Tigers may give up some points in the second half.

Kansas St. at West Virginia ESPN

West Virginia missed Saturday’s game, and so far teams that had games cancelled have not been all that sharp.  They face a Kansas State team that is going to need to pick up an upset or two to reach bowl eligibility this year.  The Mountaineers need to pick up a statement win in conference play to strike fear in the Oklahoma’s, Oklahoma State’s, and TCU’s.

Texas A&M at Alabama CBS

This week, the Crimson Tide have done something that has not been done in 17 years.  At the end of the 2001 season, National Champion Miami of Florida rated 9.6 points ahead of #2 Oregon.  Alabama is the first team since to be more than a touchdown ahead of the number two team in our ratings.

At this point, we’re not sure the Buffalo Bills could beat Alabama at New Era Field in the snow.  Alabama looked as good if not better than the 1995 Nebraska team that won the national championship with ease.

What makes this game so inviting is that Texas A&M played Clemson a couple weeks ago.  In that game, the Aggies looked like they belonged on the same field with a top 10 team.  If Alabama makes this another laugher, that will tell us all just how far ahead of another potential playoff team they have advanced.

TCU at Texas Fox

These teams don’t particularly care much for each other, and with TCU coming into this game with doubts, while the Longhorns are sky high, it should be quite interesting.  Prior last Saturday, TCU looked like a cinch to win this game according to the ratings.  After the ‘Horns clobbered USC and TCU blew up in a four-minute stretch against Ohio State, this game becomes a toss-up in the ratings.

What’s up for grabs in this game is a chance to become a key contender for the number two spot in the conference standings, which in the Big 12 will get you in the Conference Championship Game.

4 PM

South Carolina at Vanderbilt SEC

South Carolina is another team that had a game cancelled unexpectedly due to the weather.  They have not played since Georgia mutilated them in Columbia.  At this point, the Gamecocks are playing for a Citrus Bowl bid, as Georgia is not going to lose two conference games.

Vanderbilt did everything but outscore Notre Dame in South Bend, Saturday.  The Commodores outgained the Irish by 40 yards, but they suffered a loss of at least 11 points due not being able to hang onto the ball.  If the Commodores can come out with a chip on their shoulders, this can be a close game that could be decided in the final minutes.  However, as long time Commodore fans know, Vanderbilt has been known to come out flat and not show up the week after they experienced a moral victory.

7 PM

Florida at Tennessee ESPN

The winner of this game will earn a bowl bid this year.  That’s more than enough to make a game important, but this is the first chance for two new coaches to get the upper hand over their rival in this big rivalry game.

Tennessee’s defense has looked strong the last two weeks against an FCS team and the #130 FBS team.  How will they look against a better than average SEC offense?  Better yet, if you can only score 24 points at home against UTEP, how are you going to score enough to beat the Gators?

Mississippi St. at Kentucky ESPN2

One of these two teams will be 4-0 after this game, almost assuredly ranked in the top 25, and a serious contender for the Citrus or even Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.

The win over Florida in Gainesville is looking mighty good for the Wildcats, while Mississippi State looked a lot like Penn State in their last two games, which shouldn’t surprise many people that know that Coach Joe Moorhead was the offensive coordinator in Happy Valley.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. FS1

After getting pasted by Ole Miss in week one, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury was square in the middle of a hot seat in Lubbock.  The 63-point showing in a win over Houston has cooled the seat a bit, but the Red Raiders have an uphill climb to find four more wins and get bowl eligible.  Anything short of a bowl bid would most likely be the end of the Kingsbury era.

Oklahoma State looked like a playoff contender in their comfortable win over Boise State.  The Cowboys look like the top contender to their rival Sooners in the Big 12, and if they slow down the Red Raiders and hold them to 28 points or less, while winning by double digits, OSU could move on to a 9-0 start when they go to Norman in November.

 

7:30 PM

Michigan St. at Indiana BTN

Michigan State has been a major disappointment to start this season.  The Spartans had the most experience returning in FBS football this year, off a team that won 10 games last year.  A much closer than expected opening win over Utah State was followed by a loss at Arizona State.  After a week off, they now find themselves travelling into a potential ambush in Bloomington.

Indiana is 3-0 for the first time since 2015 and just the second time in the last nine seasons.  The Hoosiers look like a potential bowl eligible squad, and they basically need to pull off one conference upset to get to 3-6 in the league and guarantee six wins.  Their rebuilt defense is looking strong enough to keep them in this game, and if MSU hasn’t snapped out of their funk, the Hoosiers could surprise and move to 4-0.  The last three times IU began 4-0, they made it to a bowl game.

8:00 PM

Stanford at Oregon ABC

This may be the top game of the weekend.  The winner of this game will be the co-contender with Washington and possibly Washington State for the Pac-12 North flag.  Neither team has been exceptionally strong so far, and Stanford’s win over USC lost a lot of its oomph when USC was clobbered by Texas.  The key to this game may be the health of Bryce Love.  Love did not play against UC-Davis after rushing for 136 yards against USC.  Last year, he torched Oregon with 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon’s defense against the run has looked solid this year, while the Ducks’ passing game behind Justin Herbert has been spectacular at times.  The Ducks have had this game circled on their schedule since Spring practice.  The Cardinal have embarrassed the Ducks with consecutive slaughters the last two seasons, and the Ducks will be inspired to shut down Stanford’s running game and force the Cardinal out of their game plan.

8:30 PM

Wisconsin at Iowa Fox

If Wisconsin continues to look lifeless on offense for 20 minutes per game, the Badgers are not going to win the Big Ten West.  They are in a precarious position having to come to Iowa City for a prime time game, where the Hawkeyes enjoy an incredible home field advantage.

Iowa rarely puts up flashy offensive yardage numbers.  But, when you limit opponents to 42 rushing yards and 209 total yards per game, you can win by scoring 24 points and gaining 380 total yards.  They gang tackle and rarely let an opponent get many yards after contact.

10:30 PM

Arizona St. at Washington ESPN

The late game on ESPN is usually exciting, because it involves two teams with wide open offenses from the West Coast.  Also, frequently, these teams cannot play a lot of defense.  This mold was broken Saturday night, when in Washington’s win over Utah in Salt Lake City, the Huskies looked more like their 1959 and 1960 teams that went 10-1.  UW gained just 330 yards and gave up 261 to the Utes.

Arizona State did nothing on the ground against San Diego State, and if the Sun Devils don’t correct this Saturday night, they will get pasted in Seattle.  The ASU passing game cannot pass for 300 yards against the Huskies’ secondary, so if UW can limit ASU’s running game, this could be another one of those 1960-style defensive victories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 19, 2018

2018 Southeastern Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:38 pm

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.
Our Power 5 Conference preseason ratings and won-loss predictions were figured before knowing the outcome of recent suspensions to Coaches Urban Meyer and D.J. Durkin at Ohio State and Maryland. Because our ratings set 100.0 as average, and the mean of all 130 teams must be 100.0, taking points away from Ohio State and Maryland require redistributing points to the other 128 teams. Expect these ratings to change prior to August 25.

 
There is an old saying that the three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, the AFC, and the SEC. The Southeastern Conference is the big dog of college football. It is followed by zealots who treat it like a religion. The fans know more about an incoming freshman than most businesses know about new employees. Some fans basically take off from work on Wednesday to take their RVs on the road for a Saturday game. Tailgating in the SEC could be a regular TV program on the Food Network. SEC Football is one of the most successful industries in the world!

 

 

In an effort to show you a little more about how the PiRate Ratings are made, we are going to reveal one of the pre-season rating scores we apply to each team. We will show you the scores of each unit on the 14 teams. These include, the Offensive Line, Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Defensive Line, Linebackers, Defensive Backs, and Special Teams. This does not make up the entire rating. This is just one look at each team, but it is the one you don’t need to understand any advanced analytics to fully understand and appreciate.

 
Each unit is graded on a scale of 60-100 at the FBS level. The grades are 95% mechanical and could be performed by anybody that has the key to how the mechanical grading is made. The other 5% is a minor adjustment based on the players’ original recruiting rankings, which sometimes can predict a player to improve by more than another.
These scores look like school grades, but in this system, the difference between 70 and 90 is much less than the difference in test grades in schools. The difference in a 90 offensive line and a 70 offensive line can be as little as 3-4 points of PiRate Rating.

 
We take these grades and assign a weighting to the units. Obviously the quarterback is much more important than the long snapper. We add or subtract points based on depth, coaching changes, and other intangibles to come up with one part of the three PiRate Ratings. Each PiRate Rating has 5 to 7 different systems that measure talent and coaching of the 130 teams, which is why it takes basically 130 days to rate 130 teams. We start as soon as a team wraps up Spring Practice and sends out their Spring Media Guide. Last year’s final rating is the starting point, and all the preseason work presents a plus or minus adjustment to the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings.

 
Remember that these rankings include starters and reserves, and these are not Pro football draft ratings; an option quarterback might be rated ahead of a potential 1st round NFL selection, because we are only concerned with how the players affect the college game. Starters count for about 80% and reserves about 20% for each unit, unless the position has co-starters or the starting QB has yet to be named; there is a different algorithm for these instances. Also, these ratings do not include injuries incurred in August practices, so the sad news about Alabama losing outstanding outside linebacker Terrell Lewis is included in their score, but the recent loss of Christopher Allen is not. His injury will be reflected in Alabama’s opening rating against Louisville a week from Tuesday.

 
About the units: Tight ends are included in both the receivers and offensive line. Running backs are included as part of the receivers. When there is a true blocking fullback, he is part of the offensive line rating and contributes almost nothing to the running back score. If he is used as a receiver like an H-Back, then he is treated the same way as a tight end.

 
The style of defense factors minimally in the ratings for each unit. A 3-4 linebacker unit will be more important than a 4-2-5, so the linebackers will be given more weight in the algorithm at the end of the ratings’ process.

 

EAST

Florida
Quarterback: 80
Receivers: 83
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 91
Defensive Line: 94
Linebackers: 88
Defensive Backs: 93
Special Teams: 86

Outlook: The recovery period for the Gators will be brief. This team quit on the previous staff after narrow losses to LSU and Texas A&M. The defense is better than it played last year, and Mullen brought Todd Grantham with him from Mississippi State, where the Bulldogs were much better defensively than their talent level predicted.
The schedule is almost a dream. Three cupcakes in non-conference play, home games with Kentucky, LSU, Missouri, and South Carolina, and road games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt make nine wins possible and eight wins probable. The Gators aren’t ready to challenge Georgia for the East Division championship, but they figure to compete for number two in Mullen’s first year back at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The Captain Says: 5-3 in the conference and 8-4 overall

Georgia
Quarterback: 89
Receivers: 91
Offensive Line: 96
Running Backs: 97
Defensive Line: 93
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 95

Outlook: Normally, a team that lost as much as Georgia lost on defense would be expected to fall back by at least two wins if not more. Also, when a team that lost first and second round-drafted running backs, the offense lost might decline enough to cost the team another win. That is far from the case with Georgia. With potential future All-American Jake Fromm returning at quarterback after an incredible freshman year that saw him finish a close second in passing efficiency, Fromm should top 3,000 yards passing behind a top-notch offensive line. The defense returns more than enough talent to keep holding opponents to around 17 points per game, and the schedule gives the Bulldogs a chance to run the table to the SEC Championship Game.

The Captain Says: 7-1 in the SEC and 11-1 overall and berth in SEC Championship Game

Kentucky
Quarterback: 77
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 92
Defensive Line: 78
Linebackers: 90
Defensive Backs: 90
Special Teams: 84

Outlook: Mark Stoops has slowly increased the talent level in Lexington to the point where the Wildcats are just a little behind the teams competing for second place. Close losses to Florida and Ole Miss kept Kentucky from playing in the Outback or Gator Bowl last year. Depth concerns will hurt this team, just like it did last year, when the Wildcats ran out of gas following a 5-1 start.

The Captain Says: 2-6 in the SEC and 5-7 overall

Missouri
Quarterback: 94
Receivers: 89
Offensive Line: 94
Running Backs: 92
Defensive Line: 85
Linebackers: 86
Defensive Backs: 77
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Missouri will go as far as the passing game takes them. Drew Lock had a 202.9 passer efficiency ratings in the 7 wins, all against teams with losing records or an FCS member. His efficiency rating fell to 124.9 in the six losses, all to teams that played in bowls. The Tigers might win a game or two with their special teams.

The Captain Says: 3-5 in the SEC and 7-5 overall

South Carolina
Quarterback: 85
Receivers: 94
Offensive Line: 84
Running Backs: 84
Defensive Line: 86
Linebackers: 88
Defensive Backs: 88
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Will Muschamp has this team in contention for second place in the East, but the Gamecocks do not have a strong enough offensive or defensive line to compete with the Georgia’s and Alabama’s in this conference. South Carolina rarely dominates the stat box.

They were outgained by 258 yards in a season-opening win over North Carolina State, by 64 yards the following week in a win over Missouri, and by 54 yards in a win over Vanderbilt. Expect a better yardage output this year, but the Gamecocks are not likely to be +11 in turnovers, so the final outcome should be about the same.

The Captain Says: 5-3 in the SEC and 8-4 overall

Tennessee
Quarterback: 81
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 76
Running Backs: 79
Defensive Line: 80
Linebackers: 86
Defensive Backs: 83
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: Tennessee last competed for the SEC Championship in 2007. Derek Dooley and Butch Jones failed to make this program great again, and now the job is in the hands of Jeremy Pruitt. Pruitt is a tough disciplinarian with the ability to teach kindergarten, a rare combination. He’s also a top-notch recruiter, so it is only a matter of time before the talent level moves upward. 2018 will be a tough introduction to the head coaching world.

The Vols have decent talent on the defensive side of the ball, not enough to make noise in the SEC, but enough to win a couple times in the league and to lose games by fewer points. It’s up to the offense to move the ball and keep the defense off the field, and we don’t think the offense is up to the task.

The Captain says: 3-5 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Vanderbilt
Quarterback: 83
Receivers: 80
Offensive Line: 81
Running Backs: 74
Defensive Line: 76
Linebackers: 75
Defensive Backs: 81
Special Teams: 82

Outlook: Derek Mason’s defensive Midas Touch turned from gold to balsa wood last year. Coming off a bowl season, the Commodores were expected to compete for another in 2017. A 3-0 start looked like Vanderbilt might have been on its way to its third 8-win regular season of the decade. Three tough games with Alabama, Florida, and Georgia left the team battered and bruised, and the Commodore ship took on too much water. That great defense gave up 505 yards and 46 points per game in the seven conference losses.

The Commodores lost seven starters off that defense, and the 2018 edition could be a little weaker. The offense could not run the ball in SEC play, averaging just 79 yards per game in the seven losses.

The Captain Says: 1-7 in the SEC and 4-8 overall
WEST

Alabama
Quarterback: 96
Receivers: 86
Offensive Line: 96
Running Backs: 99
Defensive Line: 96
Linebackers: 95
Defensive Backs: 93
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: For anybody else in the league, maybe including Georgia, when a team lost as much talent as the Tide, they would be picked to drop from the national championship to maybe 9-3. When a team plugs new All-Americans into the lineup to replace those that just left, the only thing that changes are the names in the program.

Make no mistake about it: Alabama could be vulnerable against an excellent mobile quarterback that can evade the pass rush and find an open receiver (isn’t everybody vulnerable in this case). The Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson, and Chad Kelly type beat other Alabama defenses, so this could be the case in 2018. Who on the schedule has this type of quarterback with an offensive line that can protect him, and with receivers that can get open and pick up big yards? Well, they aren’t officially on the schedule, as least not until game number 15–Clemson.

The Captain says: 8-0 in the SEC and 12-0 overall and berth in SEC Championship Game
Arkansas
Quarterback: 78
Receivers: 81
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 87
Defensive Line: 79
Linebackers: 83
Defensive Backs: 79
Special Teams: 91

Outlook: The Bret Bielema era is over in Fayetteville, and grocers and restaurant owners are in mourning. Chad Morris brings his spread offense where the Razorbacks have been a pro-style power team in recent years. The talent level on both sides of the ball has fallen below the top teams in the league, and Arkansas is about on par with Kentucky in the other division. The two quarterbacks competing for the starting nod, Ty Storey and Cole Kelley, are both pro-style quarterbacks not necessarily equipped to run the Morris offense. The defense lacks a lot of quality talent, but new coordinator John Chavis will get more out of this unit than last year’s showing.

The Captain says: 2-6 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Auburn
Quarterback: 92
Receivers: 90
Offensive Line: 83
Running Backs: 87
Defensive Line: 94
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 92
Special Teams: 87

Outlook: Auburn has the talent to win the SEC Championship, but the schedule will prevent the Tigers from doing so. The Tigers must play the two division favorites plus dark horse Mississippi State on the road, and we wouldn’t pick the Cam Newton Auburn team to win all three games.
This could be the year where Auburn passes the ball for more than 250 yards per game. Jarrett Stidham has a stable full of race horse receivers and an offensive line that may be better at pass blocking than run blocking. The defense is still quite strong, so Auburn will compete in every game; it’s just that they will lose some close ones away from Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Captain says: 6-2 in the SEC and 9-3 overall

LSU
Quarterback: 78
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 85
Running Backs: 80
Defensive Line: 90
Linebackers: 92
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 87

Outlook: On paper, this might look like a team that is in danger of falling down to the bottom of the division. But, the Tigers still have a lot of talent, especially on defense, where it would not surprise us if LSU gives up less than 300 yards per game this year.

The offense looked to be a large negative with so much talent lost, but a little bird told us that recent Ohio State quarterback Joe Burrow is wowing the coaches in Baton Rouge. Since his arrival post Spring ball, two of the three quarterbacks expected to contend for a starting spot have transferred. Burrow had a 153.1 passer rating in very limited action with the Buckeyes. He has an accurate arm and plays with poise, but he has minimal game experience and dumped the ball to his backs even when he had open receivers downfield.

The Captain says: 3-5 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Mississippi
Quarterback: 81
Receivers: 96
Offensive Line: 88
Running Backs: 80
Defensive Line: 84
Linebackers: 79
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: Matt Luke should have been given a special award for keeping the Ole Miss team together and bringing normalcy back to the program. Old-timers like us see a lot of John Vaught in his ability to lead a team and play an open style of offense. Ole Miss is still on probation with a bowl-ban, and it will likely cost this team a bowl game for the second consecutive season, because the Rebels can pass the ball and defend the pass well enough to win half of their games.

Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu was quite effective when he finally took over as the starter. In the final five games, his 167.3 passer rating was the best in the league over the time period, and he averaged 321 yards per game in that stretch. Of course, it is a lot easier to have great passing stats when your receiving corps is more talented than three or four NFL teams. A.J. Brown might be a leading Heisman Trophy contender if he played for Notre Dame, Oklahoma, or USC.

The Captain says: 2-6 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Mississippi St.
Quarterback: 91
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 92
Running Backs: 90
Defensive Line: 93
Linebackers: 82
Defensive Backs: 90
Special Teams: 81

Outlook: Joe Moorhead comes to Starkville at the perfect time. He inherits all the pieces he needs to run a potent offense and play aggressive, smart defense. Except for the Alabama game, the Bulldogs can compete in the other 11. If Moorhead and defensive coordinator Bob Shoop can get improved play from the linebackers, and a couple of serviceable receivers can come forth to help take the heat off the running game, State could make a run at an 11-win season.

All this comes with a major caveat. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald must be 100% healthy and able to do the same thing this year that he did prior to the injury last year. If he stays healthy for 12 games, then State should have two, 1000-yard rushers.

The Captain says: 5-3 in the SEC and 9-3 overall

Texas A&M
Quarterback: 84
Receivers: 83
Offensive Line: 84
Running Backs: 86
Defensive Line: 88
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 85
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Jimbo Fisher figures to make a lot of changes in year one compared to how Kevin Sumlin ran the team. The offense will go from a spread passing game to a pro-style with more power running. Fisher is a great mentor of quarterbacks, but as of this writing, the starter for 2018 has not been decided. NIck Starkel is the better passer, while Kellen Mond adds a running aspect that Starkel does not have.

The Aggies are solid at all positions but not spectacular at any. They have experience at linebacker with Tyrel Dodson and Otaro Alaka back after combining for 182 tackles with 22 for loss and 11 sacks.

The Captain says: 4-4 in the SEC and 7-5 overall

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll

SEC
East 1st Place Points
Georgia 271 1977
South Carolina 8 1535
Florida 4 1441
Missouri 0 1057
Kentucky 1 874
Tennessee 1 704
Vanderbilt 0 392
West 1st Place Points
Alabama 263 1971
Auburn 19 1664
Mississippi St. 2 1239
Texas A&M 0 1091
LSU 0 1025
Ole Miss 0 578
Arkansas 0 412

The PiRate Ratings differ minimally

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 0-0 130.9 126.3 132.4 129.8
Missouri 0-0 0-0 114.4 112.7 116.0 114.3
S. Carolina 0-0 0-0 112.9 111.7 112.2 112.3
Florida 0-0 0-0 112.9 110.6 113.3 112.2
Kentucky 0-0 0-0 106.8 105.3 106.3 106.1
Tennessee 0-0 0-0 98.8 99.5 98.4 98.9
Vanderbilt 0-0 0-0 96.8 97.5 96.2 96.9
West Division
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 0-0 0-0 132.0 129.3 133.8 131.7
Auburn 0-0 0-0 122.0 121.2 124.4 122.5
Mississippi St. 0-0 0-0 122.5 119.2 122.7 121.5
L S U 0-0 0-0 110.1 110.3 110.7 110.4
Texas A&M 0-0 0-0 110.7 109.6 110.7 110.3
Arkansas 0-0 0-0 109.3 106.4 107.6 107.8
Ole Miss 0-0 0-0 105.3 105.1 106.1 105.5
SEC Averages 113.2 111.8 113.6 112.9

New Coaches
Dan Mullen isn’t a new coach to the league, but he is a new head coach at Florida. Mullen has a storied history with his new team. He tutored Tim Tebow during the Urban Meyer years when Florida won two national championships. He left Mississippi State stocked with incredible talent, and his recruiting efforts in Gainesville will quickly bring the Gators back to prominence.
Jeremy Pruitt has an incredible resume as a defensive genius, and he takes over a Tennessee team that did not play a lot of defense in recent years. Pruitt has produced top defenses at Georgia, Florida State, and Alabama, and he comes to Knoxville with multiple championship rings. His recruiting strengths in the Deep South should give the Volunteers a decent chance of returning to glory, but not for a few years.

Arkansas welcomes Chad Morris to Fayetteville after he turned the SMU program back into a bowl team. Morris brings his up-tempo,spread offense to the SEC West, where it has worked just fine at Auburn. The style is a complete contrast to former coach Bret Bielema’s power offense. Morris previously was offensive coordinator at Clemson and helped develop Deshaun Watson into a star.
Joe Moorhead takes over for Mullen at Mississippi State. Moorhead most recently was offensive coordinator for Penn State, where his offenses took off the last two years. He was the head coach of the Fordham Rams from 2012 to 2015, taking the Rams to three consecutive FCS Playoffs.

Jimbo Fisher takes over at Texas A&M after a brilliant career at Florida State, first as a coach-in-waiting under Bobby Bowden, and then as a national championship-winning head coach. His previous SEC experience included six years as quarterback coach under Tommy Tuberville at Auburn.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. Ohio State and Maryland could see their ratings change by large amounts depending on the outcome of the two coaching investigations.  The predicted won-loss records in the team capsules are more realistic.

SEC
Team Conference Overall
East
Georgia 8-0 12-1
Florida 6-2 9-3
South Carolina 6-2 9-3
Missouri 4-4 8-4
Kentucky 2-6 5-7
Vanderbilt 1-7 4-8
Tennessee 0-8 3-9
West
Alabama 8-0 13-0 *
Mississippi St. 7-1 11-1
Auburn 5-3 8-4
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5
Arkansas 3-5 7-5
Ole Miss 1-7 5-7
LSU 1-7 4-8

Bowl Tie-ins
1. Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA
2. Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL
3. Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL
3. Texas Bowl in Houston, TX
3. Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL
3. Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC
3. Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN
3. Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
9. Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA
9. Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL

Coming Tuesday–The PiRate Ratings return to the in-season format. Our first ratings for the pre-week one schedule debut for the 2018 season. A couple of early games begin the college football season on Saturday, August 25.

February 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for February 23-25, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:36 am

Note: In case you haven’t heard, Yahoo Sports has released information concerning the FBI’s probe of college basketball, naming names and teams.  Go to Yahoo Sports to read the article.

The article casts a shadow over the impending March Madness and whether players and even teams may be declared ineligible or run the risk of having the entire Final Four vacated if four implicated teams make the semifinals.

Until there is definite news on who will and will not be allowed to participate in the NCAA Tournament, the PiRate Ratings will continue to rate the teams as if nothing has affected the tournament.  Our Bracket Gurus report that runs on Monday afternoons will continue to include all teams that are eligible of this moment.  Our ratings will remain the same until players are removed from rosters.

 

In the PiRate Rating’s world, we have made a bit of a change this week.  The Mountain West Conference has reverted back to a one bid league for now as Boise State has fallen back in the Bubble race.  At the same time, St. Bonaventure has now moved into the projected field, giving the Atlantic 10 Conference multiple projected bids.  Thus, we have added the A-10 to our ratings list of power conferences and removed the MWC and returned it to mid-major.

We have retained Nevada and Boise State in the ratings of top mid-majors.

Also note that the first postseason conference tournament bracket has been decided.  The Atlantic Sun Conference begins tournament action Monday night, and you can see the bracket for this game at the conclusion of the spreads and ratings.

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads for Power Conferences and top Mid-Majors

Friday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Rhode Island Dayton 13.8
Indiana Ohio St. 3.0
Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
South Florida Tulane -6.5
SMU Wichita St. -3.7
VCU St. Bonaventure -2.6
Duquesne Davidson -7.1
Fordham LaSalle -3.8
George Mason Massachusetts 2.0
Richmond St. Joseph’s -0.3
St. Louis George Washington 6.8
Virginia Tech Louisville 3.8
Miami (Fla.) Boston College 8.8
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.2
Wake Forest Notre Dame -2.8
Pittsburgh Virginia -21.1
Duke Syracuse 15.8
TCU Baylor 4.8
Texas Oklahoma St. 6.3
Texas Tech Kansas 2.1
West Virginia Iowa St. 14.9
Oklahoma Kansas St. 4.9
DePaul Marquette -3.2
Georgetown Providence 1.2
St. John’s Seton Hall -1.4
Creighton Villanova -6.0
Maryland Michigan 1.7
Utah USC 1.9
California Washington -5.2
Stanford Washington St. 10.6
Oregon St. Arizona St. -4.2
Oregon Arizona -1.5
Ole Miss Tennessee -5.8
Georgia LSU 2.2
Mississippi St. South Carolina 6.4
Vanderbilt Texas A&M -1.9
Alabama Arkansas 2.4
Kentucky Missouri 5.3
Florida Auburn 0.1
Loyola Marymount Pacific -1.4
Saint Mary’s Santa Clara 21.6
BYU Gonzaga -5.0
Pepperdine Portland 1.1
San Francisco San Diego 2.3
Austin Peay Murray St. -6.0
Buffalo Ohio 11.3
East Tennessee St. Wofford 9.3
Loyola (Chi.) Illinois St. 11.7
Middle Tennessee UAB 9.6
New Mexico St. UMKC 17.0
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette -9.6
Stony Brook Vermont -9.5
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Cincinnati Tulsa 19.1
Temple Central Florida 4.7
Houston East Carolina 23.8
Connecticut Memphis 2.0
North Carolina St. Florida St. 0.5
Wisconsin Michigan St. -9.5
Rutgers Illinois -0.1
Purdue Minnesota 18.5
Nebraska Penn St. -0.2
Iowa Northwestern 1.6
Nevada Colorado St. 20.6
Colorado UCLA -3.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Villanova 121.7 BIGE
2 Duke 120.5 ACC
3 Purdue 119.6 BTEN
4 Virginia 119.4 ACC
5 Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
6 Cincinnati 118.0 AAC
7 North Carolina 116.7 ACC
8 Kansas 116.7 B12
9 West Virginia 115.8 B12
10 Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
11 Texas Tech 115.3 B12
12 Xavier 115.1 BIGE
13 Auburn 115.1 SEC
14 Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
15 Tennessee 113.6 SEC
16 Ohio St. 113.5 BTEN
17 TCU 112.9 B12
18 Clemson 112.9 ACC
19 Butler 112.8 BIGE
20 Arizona 112.8 PAC12
21 Michigan 112.7 BTEN
22 Creighton 112.2 BIGE
23 Kentucky 112.2 SEC
24 Nevada 112.1 MWC
25 Florida St. 112.0 ACC

PiRate Ratings By Power Conference

Team PiRate Conf.
Rhode Island 111.1 A10
Davidson 108.6 A10
St. Bonaventure 107.4 A10
VCU 101.3 A10
St. Louis 100.8 A10
Dayton 100.8 A10
St. Joseph’s 100.5 A10
LaSalle 99.8 A10
Duquesne 98.0 A10
George Washington 97.5 A10
Massachusetts 97.3 A10
Richmond 97.2 A10
George Mason 96.3 A10
Fordham 93.0 A10
Cincinnati 118.0 AAC
Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
Houston 111.8 AAC
SMU 107.5 AAC
Temple 105.4 AAC
UCF 104.2 AAC
Tulsa 102.4 AAC
Memphis 100.3 AAC
Tulane 99.5 AAC
Connecticut 99.3 AAC
East Carolina 91.5 AAC
South Florida 90.0 AAC
Duke 120.5 ACC
Virginia 119.4 ACC
North Carolina 116.7 ACC
Clemson 112.9 ACC
Florida St. 112.0 ACC
Virginia Tech 111.4 ACC
Notre Dame 111.1 ACC
Louisville 111.1 ACC
Miami FL 110.8 ACC
North Carolina St. 109.0 ACC
Syracuse 108.7 ACC
Boston College 105.5 ACC
Wake Forest 105.3 ACC
Georgia Tech 102.2 ACC
Pittsburgh 95.3 ACC
Kansas 116.7 B12
West Virginia 115.8 B12
Texas Tech 115.3 B12
TCU 112.9 B12
Baylor 111.1 B12
Oklahoma 111.0 B12
Texas 110.3 B12
Kansas St. 109.6 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.5 B12
Iowa St. 104.9 B12
Villanova 121.7 BIGE
Xavier 115.1 BIGE
Butler 112.8 BIGE
Creighton 112.2 BIGE
Seton Hall 111.3 BIGE
Marquette 109.6 BIGE
Providence 106.9 BIGE
St. John’s 106.9 BIGE
Georgetown 104.6 BIGE
DePaul 103.4 BIGE
Purdue 119.6 BTEN
Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
Ohio St. 113.5 BTEN
Michigan 112.7 BTEN
Penn St. 111.5 BTEN
Maryland 110.9 BTEN
Nebraska 107.8 BTEN
Indiana 107.0 BTEN
Wisconsin 106.4 BTEN
Northwestern 106.4 BTEN
Iowa 105.0 BTEN
Minnesota 104.6 BTEN
Illinois 104.4 BTEN
Rutgers 101.3 BTEN
Arizona 112.8 PAC12
Arizona St. 110.7 PAC12
USC 109.4 PAC12
UCLA 108.7 PAC12
Oregon 107.8 PAC12
Utah 107.8 PAC12
Stanford 104.4 PAC12
Washington 103.5 PAC12
Oregon St. 103.0 PAC12
Colorado 102.0 PAC12
Washington St. 97.3 PAC12
California 94.8 PAC12
Auburn 115.1 SEC
Tennessee 113.6 SEC
Kentucky 112.2 SEC
Florida 111.7 SEC
Texas A&M 111.2 SEC
Arkansas 111.0 SEC
Missouri 110.4 SEC
Alabama 109.9 SEC
Mississippi St. 108.8 SEC
LSU 107.8 SEC
Georgia 106.5 SEC
South Carolina 105.9 SEC
Vanderbilt 105.8 SEC
Mississippi 104.8 SEC
Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
Saint Mary’s 111.5 WCC
BYU 106.4 WCC
San Diego 101.0 WCC
San Francisco 100.3 WCC
Pacific 98.6 WCC
Loyola Marymount 94.2 WCC
Santa Clara 92.9 WCC
Portland 92.9 WCC
Pepperdine 91.0 WCC

PiRate Ratings For Key Mid-Majors

Nevada 112.1 MWC
Boise St. 108.8 MWC
Middle Tennessee 108.6 CUSA
Louisiana Lafayette 108.5 SBC
Loyola (Chi.) 108.3 MVC
Western Kentucky 107.3 CUSA
New Mexico St. 107.2 WAC
Murray St. 106.4 OVC

Conference Tournament Bracket

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 26
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #8 USC Upstate ESPN3
7:30 PM #4 NJIT #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #7 Stetson ESPN3
7:00 PM #3 Jacksonville #6 Kennesaw St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA FGCU/USCU NJIT/N.Fla. ESPN3
TBA Lipsc./Stetson Jville/Kenn ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
3:00 PM Higher Remaining Seed Lower Remaining Seed ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

September 25, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 28-30, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:08 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

September 28-30        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Texas -7.3 -6.9 -6.6
Duke Miami (Fla.) -5.4 -4.4 -6.1
Illinois Nebraska -6.7 -7.0 -6.8
Utah St. BYU -7.2 -7.3 -8.7
Washington St. USC 0.3 -1.6 -0.2
Georgia Tech North Carolina 7.3 5.8 6.9
Temple Houston -8.4 -6.7 -8.4
Minnesota Maryland 10.8 8.3 10.6
Florida Vanderbilt 11.4 12.1 11.5
Pittsburgh Rice 28.8 28.0 27.9
Arkansas New Mexico St. 21.4 23.0 21.3
Wisconsin Northwestern 15.7 13.2 13.7
East Carolina South Florida -24.4 -20.8 -25.4
North Carolina St. Syracuse 11.5 12.5 12.2
Boston College Central Michigan 12.0 11.7 11.0
Army UTEP 28.3 24.2 29.1
Tulsa Navy 6.7 5.0 6.8
Penn St. Indiana 24.5 22.4 24.5
Wake Forest Florida St. -15.7 -14.8 -15.2
Massachusetts Ohio U -3.1 -5.6 -4.0
Tennessee Georgia -7.7 -10.5 -9.9
Kansas St. Baylor 16.2 13.8 16.5
Kent St. Buffalo 0.6 -1.0 -0.7
SMU Connecticut 14.4 11.5 14.4
Kentucky Eastern Michigan 21.4 20.2 21.3
Stanford Arizona St. 19.3 17.9 19.4
Michigan St. Iowa -10.4 -7.1 -9.4
Wyoming Texas St. 25.7 21.2 25.2
Notre Dame Miami (O) 23.1 19.5 21.8
Bowling Green Akron -0.6 -3.7 0.4
Auburn Mississippi St. 17.5 14.2 17.0
Louisiana Tech South Alabama 9.2 7.3 10.0
Southern Miss. North Texas 9.2 8.4 8.8
Western Michigan Ball St. 23.4 19.5 23.0
Florida Int’l. Charlotte 12.8 10.3 13.5
Louisiana-Monroe Coastal Carolina 13.4 12.5 10.3
LSU Troy 25.1 23.0 26.6
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee -4.9 -2.1 -4.3
Cincinnati Marshall 7.3 8.5 7.8
New Mexico Air Force 2.3 2.0 2.5
Central Florida Memphis 0.4 3.6 1.1
Rutgers Ohio St. -30.5 -27.7 -30.3
Texas A&M South Carolina 2.6 1.1 2.3
Virginia Tech Clemson -7.9 -5.5 -6.4
Texas Tech Oklahoma St. -16.3 -14.8 -18.5
Oregon St. Washington -34.4 -31.1 -36.6
Alabama Ole Miss 34.6 31.3 35.3
Fresno St. Nevada 7.6 3.2 6.2
UCLA Colorado -0.6 0.9 1.1
UNLV San Jose St. 10.7 14.0 11.9
Oregon California 14.3 14.0 14.9
San Diego St. Northern Illinois 17.0 17.3 17.7
Hawaii Colorado St. -11.2 -8.6 -11.3
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Louisville Murray St. 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings (What They Have Done To Date)
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Oklahoma
5 USC
6 Penn St.
7 Georgia
8 Michigan
9 Ohio St.
10 Wisconsin
11 Miami (Fla)
12 TCU
13 Virginia Tech
14 Louisville
15 LSU
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Washington St.
18 Florida
19 South Florida
20 Stanford
21 Utah
22 San Diego St.
23 Minnesota
24 Auburn
25 Iowa
26 Mississippi St.
27 Duke
28 Central Florida
29 Kansas St.
30 Wake Forest
31 Texas Tech
32 North Carolina St.
33 Tennessee
34 Colorado
35 Georgia Tech
36 Notre Dame
37 Houston
38 West Virginia
39 Texas A&M
40 Oregon
41 Florida St.
42 Kentucky
43 South Carolina
44 Navy
45 Toledo
46 Vanderbilt
47 California
48 Memphis
49 Michigan St.
50 Northwestern
51 UCLA
52 Texas
53 Western Michigan
54 Maryland
55 Nebraska
56 Boise St.
57 Ole Miss
58 Arizona St.
59 Purdue
60 Indiana
61 UTSA
62 Virginia
63 SMU
64 Iowa St.
65 Colorado St.
66 Appalachian St.
67 Arkansas
68 Tulsa
69 Air Force
70 Pittsburgh
71 North Carolina
72 Troy
73 Northern Illinois
74 Arizona
75 Western Kentucky
76 Temple
77 Louisiana Tech
78 Tulane
79 BYU
80 Arkansas St.
81 Army
82 Southern Miss.
83 Eastern Michigan
84 Syracuse
85 Boston College
86 New Mexico
87 Illinois
88 Ohio
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Wyoming
91 Cincinnati
92 Old Dominion
93 Baylor
94 Miami (O)
95 Marshall
96 Idaho
97 Oregon St.
98 Central Michigan
99 Utah St.
100 Rutgers
101 Missouri
102 New Mexico St.
103 Hawaii
104 North Texas
105 Ball St.
106 Buffalo
107 Fresno St.
108 UL-Lafayette
109 Akron
110 South Alabama
111 Coastal Carolina
112 UL-Monroe
113 Nevada
114 Connecticut
115 East Carolina
116 Florida Int’l.
117 UNLV
118 Georgia St.
119 UAB
120 Kansas
121 Georgia Southern
122 Massachusetts
123 Rice
124 Kent St.
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Bowling Green
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Texas St.
130 Charlotte

The Predictive Ratings–These concentrate on the future and do not always reflect what the teams have done in the past.  Thus, a team can be rated higher than another team that beat them earlier this season.

PiRate Rating–Our oldest rating is based on analysis of statistical data against the strength of schedule to date.  It is more concerned with yards per point and predicting how many yards each team will gain and surrender rather than prior points scored and surrendered.

Mean Rating–This is a more conservative statistical rating, using the mean (average) of five separate statistical and scoring data points.  Updating this rating takes up most of our time on Sundays.  Of the three ratings we submit, this one is the most independent of the other two.

Bias Rating–This rating differs from the PiRate Rating only in how the algorithm is calculated.  We give a bias to certain factors, giving these more weight than others.  It is the most liberal rating in that our updating for this one allows teams to rise and fall by more points each week than in our other two ratings.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 132.7 136.4 135.5
2 Washington 130.0 126.7 130.7 129.1
3 Clemson 130.1 127.1 129.4 128.9
4 Ohio St. 130.0 127.3 129.3 128.9
5 Penn St. 126.9 124.9 127.5 126.4
6 Oklahoma 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
7 Florida St. 124.5 122.8 123.6 123.7
8 Auburn 124.2 121.9 124.1 123.4
9 Oklahoma St. 123.0 121.3 124.1 122.8
10 Wisconsin 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
11 Georgia 119.5 120.4 119.8 119.9
12 U S C 120.0 119.5 119.9 119.8
13 Virginia Tech 119.2 118.6 120.0 119.2
14 T C U 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
15 Miami 118.9 116.6 118.3 117.9
16 Stanford 117.9 116.3 117.3 117.2
17 Michigan 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
18 Washington St. 117.3 114.9 116.7 116.3
19 Louisville 116.1 115.0 116.2 115.8
20 N. Carolina St. 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
21 L S U 115.4 113.6 116.1 115.0
22 Florida 115.5 114.7 114.8 115.0
23 Kansas St. 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
24 Notre Dame 114.1 112.7 114.6 113.8
25 Texas 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
26 Kentucky 112.9 111.5 112.6 112.3
27 Georgia Tech 113.7 111.2 111.7 112.2
28 Oregon 113.0 110.2 112.1 111.8
29 South Florida 111.7 110.0 112.7 111.5
30 Iowa 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
31 Colorado 111.8 109.7 109.6 110.3
32 Mississippi St. 109.8 110.7 110.0 110.2
33 Duke 111.0 109.7 109.7 110.1
34 West Virginia 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
35 Northwestern 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
36 Minnesota 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
37 N. Carolina 109.4 108.4 107.8 108.5
38 Central Florida 107.0 108.9 108.0 108.0
39 U C L A 108.2 107.6 107.7 107.8
40 Utah 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
41 Tennessee 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.5
42 Syracuse 107.3 105.7 106.6 106.5
43 Vanderbilt 107.1 105.6 106.3 106.3
44 Arkansas 106.5 106.0 106.2 106.3
45 Wake Forest 106.4 105.5 106.0 105.9
46 Indiana 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6
47 S. Carolina 105.4 104.8 104.4 104.9
48 Ole Miss 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
49 Memphis 105.1 103.9 105.3 104.7
50 Pittsburgh 104.7 105.0 104.0 104.6
51 Colo. State 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
52 Houston 104.7 103.7 104.6 104.3
53 Texas A&M 105.0 102.9 103.7 103.9
54 Iowa State 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
55 Virginia 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
56 San Diego St. 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.3
57 Texas Tech 103.7 103.4 102.6 103.2
58 Maryland 101.7 104.0 101.7 102.4
59 Purdue 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
60 Baylor 100.9 103.0 100.9 101.6
61 Arizona St. 101.7 101.3 100.9 101.3
62 Nebraska 100.8 102.4 99.9 101.0
63 Tulsa 100.7 100.3 100.7 100.6
64 California 101.7 99.2 100.1 100.3
65 Toledo 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
66 Michigan St. 98.1 101.1 98.8 99.3
67 Navy 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
68 Western Michigan 99.4 97.6 100.7 99.2
69 Arizona 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
70 BYU 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
71 Boston College 98.8 99.2 98.2 98.7
72 SMU 98.2 98.3 98.6 98.4
73 Boise St. 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
75 U T S A 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
76 Army 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4
77 Rutgers 96.5 96.6 95.9 96.3
78 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
79 Miami (O) 94.0 96.2 95.8 95.3
80 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
81 Air Force 93.8 94.1 94.2 94.0
82 Eastern Michigan 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.9
83 W. Kentucky 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
84 Wyoming 94.6 93.1 93.2 93.6
85 New Mexico 93.1 93.1 93.7 93.3
86 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.5 93.1
87 Temple 92.5 93.2 92.4 92.7
88 Middle Tennessee 91.9 92.4 92.4 92.2
89 Cincinnati 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
90 Oregon St. 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
91 Illinois 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.8 92.4 91.7 91.6
93 Louisiana Tech 90.4 91.4 91.3 91.1
94 Hawaii 89.8 90.8 89.8 90.1
95 Central Michigan 89.3 90.0 89.6 89.6
96 Utah St. 90.2 89.3 89.2 89.6
97 Old Dominion 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
98 Northern Illinois 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
99 Arkansas St. 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
100 Kansas 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
101 Fresno St. 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
102 U N L V 87.0 89.9 87.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
104 N. Mexico St. 88.0 86.0 88.0 87.3
105 Connecticut 85.7 88.8 86.0 86.8
106 Marshall 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
107 Nevada 84.0 86.8 85.7 85.5
108 Florida Atlantic 84.0 87.3 85.1 85.5
109 Massachusetts 85.7 84.8 85.7 85.4
110 S. Alabama 84.2 87.1 84.4 85.2
111 Buffalo 83.3 86.0 85.3 84.9
112 Georgia St. 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
113 Idaho 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
114 UL-Lafayette 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
115 Akron 83.0 86.5 82.8 84.1
116 East Carolina 83.0 84.9 83.0 83.6
117 N. Texas 81.6 83.4 81.8 82.3
118 Kent St. 81.4 82.6 82.1 82.0
119 Florida Int’l. 81.6 81.7 82.6 82.0
120 UL-Monroe 81.4 81.9 80.0 81.1
121 Bowling Green 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
122 Ball St. 79.0 81.1 80.7 80.3
123 Georgia Southern 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
124 Rice 78.4 79.5 78.6 78.8
125 San Jose St. 78.8 78.4 78.0 78.4
126 Charlotte 71.9 74.4 72.1 72.8
127 Texas St. 71.9 74.8 71.0 72.6
128 U T E P 70.9 74.7 71.0 72.2
129 Coastal Carolina 70.5 71.9 72.2 71.6
130 UAB 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 1-0 4-0 111.7 110.0 112.7 111.5
Central Florida 0-0 2-0 107.0 108.9 108.0 108.0
Temple 0-1 2-2 92.5 93.2 92.4 92.7
Cincinnati 0-1 2-2 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
Connecticut 0-1 1-2 85.7 88.8 86.0 86.8
East Carolina 1-0 1-3 83.0 84.9 83.0 83.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 3-0 105.1 103.9 105.3 104.7
Houston 0-0 2-1 104.7 103.7 104.6 104.3
Tulsa 0-0 1-3 100.7 100.3 100.7 100.6
Navy 2-0 3-0 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
SMU 0-0 3-1 98.2 98.3 98.6 98.4
Tulane 0-1 2-2 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
             
AAC Averages     97.7 98.3 98.1 98.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 2-0 4-0 130.1 127.1 129.4 128.9
Florida St. 0-1 0-2 124.5 122.8 123.6 123.7
Louisville 1-1 3-2 116.1 115.0 116.2 115.8
N. Carolina St. 1-0 3-1 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
Syracuse 0-0 2-2 107.3 105.7 106.6 106.5
Wake Forest 1-0 4-0 106.4 105.5 106.0 105.9
Boston College 0-2 1-3 98.8 99.2 98.2 98.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 0-0 4-0 119.2 118.6 120.0 119.2
Miami 0-0 2-0 118.9 116.6 118.3 117.9
Georgia Tech 1-0 2-1 113.7 111.2 111.7 112.2
Duke 1-0 4-0 111.0 109.7 109.7 110.1
N. Carolina 0-2 1-3 109.4 108.4 107.8 108.5
Pittsburgh 0-1 1-3 104.7 105.0 104.0 104.6
Virginia 0-0 3-1 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
Oklahoma St. 0-1 3-1 123.0 121.3 124.1 122.8
T C U 1-0 4-0 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
Kansas St. 0-0 2-1 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
Texas 0-0 1-2 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
West Virginia 1-0 3-1 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
Iowa State 0-0 2-1 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
Texas Tech 0-0 3-0 103.7 103.4 102.6 103.2
Baylor 0-1 0-4 100.9 103.0 100.9 101.6
Kansas 0-1 1-3 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.1 110.2 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 3-1 130.0 127.3 129.3 128.9
Penn St. 1-0 4-0 126.9 124.9 127.5 126.4
Michigan 1-0 4-0 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
Indiana 0-1 2-1 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6
Maryland 0-0 2-1 101.7 104.0 101.7 102.4
Michigan St. 0-0 2-1 98.1 101.1 98.8 99.3
Rutgers 0-1 1-3 96.5 96.6 95.9 96.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 3-0 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
Iowa 0-1 3-1 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
Northwestern 0-0 2-1 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-0 3-0 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
Purdue 0-1 2-2 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
Nebraska 1-0 2-2 100.8 102.4 99.9 101.0
Illinois 0-0 2-1 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.7 108.5 108.7
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 2-2 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
Middle Tennessee 0-0 2-2 91.9 92.4 92.4 92.2
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
Marshall 0-0 2-1 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-3 84.0 87.3 85.1 85.5
Florida Int’l. 1-0 2-1 81.6 81.7 82.6 82.0
Charlotte 0-0 0-4 71.9 74.4 72.1 72.8
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 3-0 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
Louisiana Tech 1-0 2-2 90.4 91.4 91.3 91.1
Southern Miss. 0-0 2-1 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
N. Texas 1-0 2-2 81.6 83.4 81.8 82.3
Rice 1-1 1-3 78.4 79.5 78.6 78.8
U T E P 0-1 0-4 70.9 74.7 71.0 72.2
UAB 0-1 2-2 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.5 85.2 84.3 84.3
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   3-1 114.1 112.7 114.6 113.8
BYU   1-3 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
Army   2-2 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4
Massachusetts   0-5 85.7 84.8 85.7 85.4
             
Indep. Averages     98.7 97.9 99.2 98.6
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 1-0 2-2 94.0 96.2 95.8 95.3
Ohio U 1-0 3-1 90.8 92.4 91.7 91.6
Buffalo 0-0 2-2 83.3 86.0 85.3 84.9
Akron 0-0 1-3 83.0 86.5 82.8 84.1
Kent St. 0-0 1-3 81.4 82.6 82.1 82.0
Bowling Green 0-0 0-4 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 3-1 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
Western Michigan 0-0 2-2 99.4 97.6 100.7 99.2
Eastern Michigan 0-1 2-1 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.9
Central Michigan 0-1 2-2 89.3 90.0 89.6 89.6
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
Ball St. 0-0 2-2 79.0 81.1 80.7 80.3
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.7 89.5 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 2-2 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
Boise St. 1-0 2-2 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
Air Force 0-1 1-2 93.8 94.1 94.2 94.0
Wyoming 1-0 2-2 94.6 93.1 93.2 93.6
New Mexico 0-1 2-2 93.1 93.1 93.7 93.3
Utah St. 1-0 2-2 90.2 89.3 89.2 89.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 4-0 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.3
Hawaii 0-1 2-2 89.8 90.8 89.8 90.1
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
U N L V 0-0 1-2 87.0 89.9 87.4 88.1
Nevada 0-0 0-4 84.0 86.8 85.7 85.5
San Jose St. 0-1 1-4 78.8 78.4 78.0 78.4
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 1-0 4-0 130.0 126.7 130.7 129.1
Stanford 1-1 2-2 117.9 116.3 117.3 117.2
Washington St. 1-0 4-0 117.3 114.9 116.7 116.3
Oregon 0-1 3-1 113.0 110.2 112.1 111.8
California 0-1 3-1 101.7 99.2 100.1 100.3
Oregon St. 0-1 1-3 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 2-0 4-0 120.0 119.5 119.9 119.8
Colorado 0-1 3-1 111.8 109.7 109.6 110.3
U C L A 0-1 2-2 108.2 107.6 107.7 107.8
Utah 1-0 4-0 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
Arizona St. 1-0 2-2 101.7 101.3 100.9 101.3
Arizona 0-1 2-2 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 1-0 4-0 119.5 120.4 119.8 119.9
Florida 2-0 2-1 115.5 114.7 114.8 115.0
Kentucky 1-1 3-1 112.9 111.5 112.6 112.3
Tennessee 0-1 3-1 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.5
Vanderbilt 0-1 3-1 107.1 105.6 106.3 106.3
S. Carolina 1-1 3-1 105.4 104.8 104.4 104.9
Missouri 0-2 1-3 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 1-0 4-0 137.5 132.7 136.4 135.5
Auburn 1-0 3-1 124.2 121.9 124.1 123.4
L S U 0-1 3-1 115.4 113.6 116.1 115.0
Mississippi St. 1-1 3-1 109.8 110.7 110.0 110.2
Arkansas 0-1 1-2 106.5 106.0 106.2 106.3
Ole Miss 0-0 2-1 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
Texas A&M 1-0 3-1 105.0 102.9 103.7 103.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.5 111.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-2 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
Troy 1-0 3-1 93.3 93.6 92.5 93.1
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
N. Mexico St. 0-1 2-2 88.0 86.0 88.0 87.3
S. Alabama 0-1 1-3 84.2 87.1 84.4 85.2
Georgia St. 0-0 1-2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
Idaho 1-0 2-2 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
UL-Lafayette 0-1 1-3 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
UL-Monroe 1-0 1-2 81.4 81.9 80.0 81.1
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-3 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
Texas St. 0-1 1-3 71.9 74.8 71.0 72.6
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-2 70.5 71.9 72.2 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.0 84.8 84.0 84.3

How The Conferences Rate

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.5 111.5
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.7 108.5 108.7
6 INDEP. 98.7 97.9 99.2 98.6
7 AAC 97.7 98.3 98.1 98.0
8 MWC 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.6 89.7 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.5 85.2 84.3 84.3
11 Sun Belt 84.0 84.8 84.0 84.3

Alabama Takes Commanding Lead
Alabama’s most recent victory, a 59-0 pasting of Vanderbilt, propelled the top-ranked Tide into a rather lofty status this week. With the win, accompanied by unimpressive wins by Clemson and Oklahoma, Alabama has now opened a better than six-point cushion in the PiRate Ratings over the number two team. It is not often in PiRate Ratings’ history that a number one team has been rated more than six points ahead of the number two team. It puts ‘Bama in esteemed company. Since our ratings started in 1969, only two other number one teams held a greater than six-point edge over the number two team at the end of a season. Unfortunately, we do not have in-season information on our ratings prior to 1989.

If you were wondering, the other two teams that held a better than six-point edge on the field were Miami (Fla.) in 2001 and Nebraska in 1995. This does not mean that Alabama is one of the three best teams in our history; it just means they are in line to become one of three of the most dominant in a single season when compared to others from that particular year.  Alabama’s current rating is still historically lower than many others, namely Nebraska and Oklahoma of 1971, USC of 1972, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma of 1973, Oklahoma of 1974, Miami (Fla.) of 1987, USC of 2004, and Texas of 2005.
New Number Two
Speaking of number two, there is a new team in that position yet again. To date, the number two team has changed each week. This week, that distinguished honor goes to Washington (although Clemson stayed number two in our retrodictive ratings).

Best Group of 5
South Florida and San Diego State opened a little room over most of the rest of the Group of 5 field in the quest to receive the lone automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid awarded to this group.  However, one new team moved into contention to make this an interesting three-team race at this point. Central Florida not only won at Maryland, they destroyed the Terps. UCF Head Coach Scott Frost just established himself as a potential front-runner to return to his alma mater the moment Nebraska makes its next coaching change.

The Three Best Games This Week
The ACC passed the SEC in PiRate Rating superiority last week and slightly widened that lead this past weekend. Now, it showcases two of the top three games of this week.

Clemson may have been looking ahead to this week and thus failed to thrive for more than a half against Boston College. The Tigers face what is probably their stiffest test of the regular season with a trip to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech in the Saturday night prime-time game on ABC. Virginia Tech’s defense may be strong enough to keep the Hokies in the game and give Tech a legitimate chance at the upset.

Miami visits Durham to take on Duke in a game that will go far in deciding who will contend with Virginia Tech in the Coastal Division.

The other key game this week takes place Friday Night in the Palouse, where USC invades Pullman to take on Washington State. It promises to be a game with a lot of passing yards and total points scored, and it might be one of those four-hour marathons. It just could be the most exciting game of September.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 24, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for August 26, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:19 am

It’s here!  We hope you enjoyed a nice summer.  It’s football time in America once again.  Yes, in just two days, five college football games will dot the abbreviated schedule, including a game in Sydney, Australia.

For those new to this online establishment, the PiRates have been issuing ratings since 1969, when the Captain was a little buccaneer.  The ratings have been refined through the years, and in its current form, they look beyond the score of the game.  Our ratings rely on a perusal of the play-by-play data of the games, when the scores took place, how many yards were gained by each team, turnovers, and other odds and sods.  Two teams favored by 7 points over their opponents could both win their games 42-24, and they could mean two different things.  One team might have led 42-7 midway through the third quarter and allowed 17 points with their reserves.  The other team might have led 28-24 with 6 minutes to go in the game, and then the trailing team gave up a pick six and a fumble at their own 15 yard line to give up two late scores.  The former team could have won 70-7 if they had not let off the gas pedal, while the latter team might have lost the game had the turnovers not occurred.

Also, we factor in depth all through the season, underclassmen that contribute unexpectedly, and other factors that might affect a game score.  Additionally, our home field advantages are not fluid.  If North Carolina hosts Wake Forest, the home field advantage will be less than if North Carolina hosts Oregon State.  In some instances, the visiting team brings along an away from home field disadvantage.

We have three predictive ratings–PiRate, Mean, and Bias.  We also have retrodictive ratings that look only at past results and try to rank teams the way the polls should rank them.  At the beginning of the season, these retrodictive ratings have a rather high standard deviation, so we normalize them a bit with our predictive ratings.  By mid-October, these ratings are 100% retrodictive.

Let’s take a look at our Predictive Ratings for the 130 FBS schools.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
2 Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
3 Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
4 Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
5 Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
6 Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
7 Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
8 Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
9 U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
10 Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
11 L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
12 Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
13 Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
14 Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
15 Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
16 Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
17 Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
18 Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
19 Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
20 N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
21 Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
22 Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
23 Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
24 Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
25 Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
26 Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
27 Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
28 Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
29 South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
30 T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
31 Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
32 Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
33 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
34 Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
35 Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
36 Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
37 N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
38 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
39 U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
40 West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
41 Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
42 Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
43 Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
44 Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
45 Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
46 S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
47 Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
48 Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
49 Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
50 Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
51 Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
52 Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
53 Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
54 Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
55 Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
56 B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
57 Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
58 Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
59 Boston Coll. 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
60 Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
61 Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
62 Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
63 Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
64 Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
65 San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
66 Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
67 Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
68 W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
69 Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
70 Appalachian St. 99.8 96.8 100.4 99.0
71 Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
72 Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
73 Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
74 Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
75 Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
76 Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
77 SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
78 California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
79 Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
80 Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
82 Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
83 Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
84 Troy 94.1 94.4 93.4 94.0
85 Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
86 New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
87 U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
88 Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
89 Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
90 Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
91 Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
92 Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
93 Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
94 Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
95 Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
96 Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
97 Arkansas St. 88.3 90.1 90.0 89.5
98 Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
99 East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
100 Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
101 Idaho 86.4 89.1 87.2 87.5
102 Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
103 U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
104 Georgia St. 86.3 85.5 86.2 86.0
105 Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
106 Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
107 San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
108 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.8 84.7 85.5
109 Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
110 Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
111 Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
112 S. Alabama 83.8 86.8 84.0 84.9
113 Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
114 Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
115 Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
116 Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
117 N. Mexico St. 84.2 81.5 83.2 83.0
118 Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
119 Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
120 Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
121 N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
122 Georgia Southern 80.4 82.1 79.8 80.8
123 Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
124 Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
125 UL-Monroe 79.6 80.2 77.8 79.2
126 U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
127 Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
128 Coastal Carolina 72.1 73.5 73.9 73.2
129 Texas St. 70.7 74.7 69.4 71.6
130 UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3

Here are the predictive ratings by conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
         
AAC Averages   98.7 98.7 98.5
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
         
ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
         
Big 12 Averages 108.4 108.7 108.6 108.6
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3
         
CUSA Averages 89.9 92.1 91.0 91.0
         
Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
         
Independents Averages 98.3 97.1 98.7 98.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
         
MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0