The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for February 23-25, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:36 am

Note: In case you haven’t heard, Yahoo Sports has released information concerning the FBI’s probe of college basketball, naming names and teams.  Go to Yahoo Sports to read the article.

The article casts a shadow over the impending March Madness and whether players and even teams may be declared ineligible or run the risk of having the entire Final Four vacated if four implicated teams make the semifinals.

Until there is definite news on who will and will not be allowed to participate in the NCAA Tournament, the PiRate Ratings will continue to rate the teams as if nothing has affected the tournament.  Our Bracket Gurus report that runs on Monday afternoons will continue to include all teams that are eligible of this moment.  Our ratings will remain the same until players are removed from rosters.

 

In the PiRate Rating’s world, we have made a bit of a change this week.  The Mountain West Conference has reverted back to a one bid league for now as Boise State has fallen back in the Bubble race.  At the same time, St. Bonaventure has now moved into the projected field, giving the Atlantic 10 Conference multiple projected bids.  Thus, we have added the A-10 to our ratings list of power conferences and removed the MWC and returned it to mid-major.

We have retained Nevada and Boise State in the ratings of top mid-majors.

Also note that the first postseason conference tournament bracket has been decided.  The Atlantic Sun Conference begins tournament action Monday night, and you can see the bracket for this game at the conclusion of the spreads and ratings.

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads for Power Conferences and top Mid-Majors

Friday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Rhode Island Dayton 13.8
Indiana Ohio St. 3.0
Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
South Florida Tulane -6.5
SMU Wichita St. -3.7
VCU St. Bonaventure -2.6
Duquesne Davidson -7.1
Fordham LaSalle -3.8
George Mason Massachusetts 2.0
Richmond St. Joseph’s -0.3
St. Louis George Washington 6.8
Virginia Tech Louisville 3.8
Miami (Fla.) Boston College 8.8
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.2
Wake Forest Notre Dame -2.8
Pittsburgh Virginia -21.1
Duke Syracuse 15.8
TCU Baylor 4.8
Texas Oklahoma St. 6.3
Texas Tech Kansas 2.1
West Virginia Iowa St. 14.9
Oklahoma Kansas St. 4.9
DePaul Marquette -3.2
Georgetown Providence 1.2
St. John’s Seton Hall -1.4
Creighton Villanova -6.0
Maryland Michigan 1.7
Utah USC 1.9
California Washington -5.2
Stanford Washington St. 10.6
Oregon St. Arizona St. -4.2
Oregon Arizona -1.5
Ole Miss Tennessee -5.8
Georgia LSU 2.2
Mississippi St. South Carolina 6.4
Vanderbilt Texas A&M -1.9
Alabama Arkansas 2.4
Kentucky Missouri 5.3
Florida Auburn 0.1
Loyola Marymount Pacific -1.4
Saint Mary’s Santa Clara 21.6
BYU Gonzaga -5.0
Pepperdine Portland 1.1
San Francisco San Diego 2.3
Austin Peay Murray St. -6.0
Buffalo Ohio 11.3
East Tennessee St. Wofford 9.3
Loyola (Chi.) Illinois St. 11.7
Middle Tennessee UAB 9.6
New Mexico St. UMKC 17.0
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette -9.6
Stony Brook Vermont -9.5
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Cincinnati Tulsa 19.1
Temple Central Florida 4.7
Houston East Carolina 23.8
Connecticut Memphis 2.0
North Carolina St. Florida St. 0.5
Wisconsin Michigan St. -9.5
Rutgers Illinois -0.1
Purdue Minnesota 18.5
Nebraska Penn St. -0.2
Iowa Northwestern 1.6
Nevada Colorado St. 20.6
Colorado UCLA -3.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Villanova 121.7 BIGE
2 Duke 120.5 ACC
3 Purdue 119.6 BTEN
4 Virginia 119.4 ACC
5 Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
6 Cincinnati 118.0 AAC
7 North Carolina 116.7 ACC
8 Kansas 116.7 B12
9 West Virginia 115.8 B12
10 Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
11 Texas Tech 115.3 B12
12 Xavier 115.1 BIGE
13 Auburn 115.1 SEC
14 Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
15 Tennessee 113.6 SEC
16 Ohio St. 113.5 BTEN
17 TCU 112.9 B12
18 Clemson 112.9 ACC
19 Butler 112.8 BIGE
20 Arizona 112.8 PAC12
21 Michigan 112.7 BTEN
22 Creighton 112.2 BIGE
23 Kentucky 112.2 SEC
24 Nevada 112.1 MWC
25 Florida St. 112.0 ACC

PiRate Ratings By Power Conference

Team PiRate Conf.
Rhode Island 111.1 A10
Davidson 108.6 A10
St. Bonaventure 107.4 A10
VCU 101.3 A10
St. Louis 100.8 A10
Dayton 100.8 A10
St. Joseph’s 100.5 A10
LaSalle 99.8 A10
Duquesne 98.0 A10
George Washington 97.5 A10
Massachusetts 97.3 A10
Richmond 97.2 A10
George Mason 96.3 A10
Fordham 93.0 A10
Cincinnati 118.0 AAC
Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
Houston 111.8 AAC
SMU 107.5 AAC
Temple 105.4 AAC
UCF 104.2 AAC
Tulsa 102.4 AAC
Memphis 100.3 AAC
Tulane 99.5 AAC
Connecticut 99.3 AAC
East Carolina 91.5 AAC
South Florida 90.0 AAC
Duke 120.5 ACC
Virginia 119.4 ACC
North Carolina 116.7 ACC
Clemson 112.9 ACC
Florida St. 112.0 ACC
Virginia Tech 111.4 ACC
Notre Dame 111.1 ACC
Louisville 111.1 ACC
Miami FL 110.8 ACC
North Carolina St. 109.0 ACC
Syracuse 108.7 ACC
Boston College 105.5 ACC
Wake Forest 105.3 ACC
Georgia Tech 102.2 ACC
Pittsburgh 95.3 ACC
Kansas 116.7 B12
West Virginia 115.8 B12
Texas Tech 115.3 B12
TCU 112.9 B12
Baylor 111.1 B12
Oklahoma 111.0 B12
Texas 110.3 B12
Kansas St. 109.6 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.5 B12
Iowa St. 104.9 B12
Villanova 121.7 BIGE
Xavier 115.1 BIGE
Butler 112.8 BIGE
Creighton 112.2 BIGE
Seton Hall 111.3 BIGE
Marquette 109.6 BIGE
Providence 106.9 BIGE
St. John’s 106.9 BIGE
Georgetown 104.6 BIGE
DePaul 103.4 BIGE
Purdue 119.6 BTEN
Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
Ohio St. 113.5 BTEN
Michigan 112.7 BTEN
Penn St. 111.5 BTEN
Maryland 110.9 BTEN
Nebraska 107.8 BTEN
Indiana 107.0 BTEN
Wisconsin 106.4 BTEN
Northwestern 106.4 BTEN
Iowa 105.0 BTEN
Minnesota 104.6 BTEN
Illinois 104.4 BTEN
Rutgers 101.3 BTEN
Arizona 112.8 PAC12
Arizona St. 110.7 PAC12
USC 109.4 PAC12
UCLA 108.7 PAC12
Oregon 107.8 PAC12
Utah 107.8 PAC12
Stanford 104.4 PAC12
Washington 103.5 PAC12
Oregon St. 103.0 PAC12
Colorado 102.0 PAC12
Washington St. 97.3 PAC12
California 94.8 PAC12
Auburn 115.1 SEC
Tennessee 113.6 SEC
Kentucky 112.2 SEC
Florida 111.7 SEC
Texas A&M 111.2 SEC
Arkansas 111.0 SEC
Missouri 110.4 SEC
Alabama 109.9 SEC
Mississippi St. 108.8 SEC
LSU 107.8 SEC
Georgia 106.5 SEC
South Carolina 105.9 SEC
Vanderbilt 105.8 SEC
Mississippi 104.8 SEC
Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
Saint Mary’s 111.5 WCC
BYU 106.4 WCC
San Diego 101.0 WCC
San Francisco 100.3 WCC
Pacific 98.6 WCC
Loyola Marymount 94.2 WCC
Santa Clara 92.9 WCC
Portland 92.9 WCC
Pepperdine 91.0 WCC

PiRate Ratings For Key Mid-Majors

Nevada 112.1 MWC
Boise St. 108.8 MWC
Middle Tennessee 108.6 CUSA
Louisiana Lafayette 108.5 SBC
Loyola (Chi.) 108.3 MVC
Western Kentucky 107.3 CUSA
New Mexico St. 107.2 WAC
Murray St. 106.4 OVC

Conference Tournament Bracket

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 26
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #8 USC Upstate ESPN3
7:30 PM #4 NJIT #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #7 Stetson ESPN3
7:00 PM #3 Jacksonville #6 Kennesaw St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA FGCU/USCU NJIT/N.Fla. ESPN3
TBA Lipsc./Stetson Jville/Kenn ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
3:00 PM Higher Remaining Seed Lower Remaining Seed ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

 

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October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

September 25, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 28-30, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:08 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

September 28-30        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Texas -7.3 -6.9 -6.6
Duke Miami (Fla.) -5.4 -4.4 -6.1
Illinois Nebraska -6.7 -7.0 -6.8
Utah St. BYU -7.2 -7.3 -8.7
Washington St. USC 0.3 -1.6 -0.2
Georgia Tech North Carolina 7.3 5.8 6.9
Temple Houston -8.4 -6.7 -8.4
Minnesota Maryland 10.8 8.3 10.6
Florida Vanderbilt 11.4 12.1 11.5
Pittsburgh Rice 28.8 28.0 27.9
Arkansas New Mexico St. 21.4 23.0 21.3
Wisconsin Northwestern 15.7 13.2 13.7
East Carolina South Florida -24.4 -20.8 -25.4
North Carolina St. Syracuse 11.5 12.5 12.2
Boston College Central Michigan 12.0 11.7 11.0
Army UTEP 28.3 24.2 29.1
Tulsa Navy 6.7 5.0 6.8
Penn St. Indiana 24.5 22.4 24.5
Wake Forest Florida St. -15.7 -14.8 -15.2
Massachusetts Ohio U -3.1 -5.6 -4.0
Tennessee Georgia -7.7 -10.5 -9.9
Kansas St. Baylor 16.2 13.8 16.5
Kent St. Buffalo 0.6 -1.0 -0.7
SMU Connecticut 14.4 11.5 14.4
Kentucky Eastern Michigan 21.4 20.2 21.3
Stanford Arizona St. 19.3 17.9 19.4
Michigan St. Iowa -10.4 -7.1 -9.4
Wyoming Texas St. 25.7 21.2 25.2
Notre Dame Miami (O) 23.1 19.5 21.8
Bowling Green Akron -0.6 -3.7 0.4
Auburn Mississippi St. 17.5 14.2 17.0
Louisiana Tech South Alabama 9.2 7.3 10.0
Southern Miss. North Texas 9.2 8.4 8.8
Western Michigan Ball St. 23.4 19.5 23.0
Florida Int’l. Charlotte 12.8 10.3 13.5
Louisiana-Monroe Coastal Carolina 13.4 12.5 10.3
LSU Troy 25.1 23.0 26.6
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee -4.9 -2.1 -4.3
Cincinnati Marshall 7.3 8.5 7.8
New Mexico Air Force 2.3 2.0 2.5
Central Florida Memphis 0.4 3.6 1.1
Rutgers Ohio St. -30.5 -27.7 -30.3
Texas A&M South Carolina 2.6 1.1 2.3
Virginia Tech Clemson -7.9 -5.5 -6.4
Texas Tech Oklahoma St. -16.3 -14.8 -18.5
Oregon St. Washington -34.4 -31.1 -36.6
Alabama Ole Miss 34.6 31.3 35.3
Fresno St. Nevada 7.6 3.2 6.2
UCLA Colorado -0.6 0.9 1.1
UNLV San Jose St. 10.7 14.0 11.9
Oregon California 14.3 14.0 14.9
San Diego St. Northern Illinois 17.0 17.3 17.7
Hawaii Colorado St. -11.2 -8.6 -11.3
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Louisville Murray St. 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings (What They Have Done To Date)
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Oklahoma
5 USC
6 Penn St.
7 Georgia
8 Michigan
9 Ohio St.
10 Wisconsin
11 Miami (Fla)
12 TCU
13 Virginia Tech
14 Louisville
15 LSU
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Washington St.
18 Florida
19 South Florida
20 Stanford
21 Utah
22 San Diego St.
23 Minnesota
24 Auburn
25 Iowa
26 Mississippi St.
27 Duke
28 Central Florida
29 Kansas St.
30 Wake Forest
31 Texas Tech
32 North Carolina St.
33 Tennessee
34 Colorado
35 Georgia Tech
36 Notre Dame
37 Houston
38 West Virginia
39 Texas A&M
40 Oregon
41 Florida St.
42 Kentucky
43 South Carolina
44 Navy
45 Toledo
46 Vanderbilt
47 California
48 Memphis
49 Michigan St.
50 Northwestern
51 UCLA
52 Texas
53 Western Michigan
54 Maryland
55 Nebraska
56 Boise St.
57 Ole Miss
58 Arizona St.
59 Purdue
60 Indiana
61 UTSA
62 Virginia
63 SMU
64 Iowa St.
65 Colorado St.
66 Appalachian St.
67 Arkansas
68 Tulsa
69 Air Force
70 Pittsburgh
71 North Carolina
72 Troy
73 Northern Illinois
74 Arizona
75 Western Kentucky
76 Temple
77 Louisiana Tech
78 Tulane
79 BYU
80 Arkansas St.
81 Army
82 Southern Miss.
83 Eastern Michigan
84 Syracuse
85 Boston College
86 New Mexico
87 Illinois
88 Ohio
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Wyoming
91 Cincinnati
92 Old Dominion
93 Baylor
94 Miami (O)
95 Marshall
96 Idaho
97 Oregon St.
98 Central Michigan
99 Utah St.
100 Rutgers
101 Missouri
102 New Mexico St.
103 Hawaii
104 North Texas
105 Ball St.
106 Buffalo
107 Fresno St.
108 UL-Lafayette
109 Akron
110 South Alabama
111 Coastal Carolina
112 UL-Monroe
113 Nevada
114 Connecticut
115 East Carolina
116 Florida Int’l.
117 UNLV
118 Georgia St.
119 UAB
120 Kansas
121 Georgia Southern
122 Massachusetts
123 Rice
124 Kent St.
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Bowling Green
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Texas St.
130 Charlotte

The Predictive Ratings–These concentrate on the future and do not always reflect what the teams have done in the past.  Thus, a team can be rated higher than another team that beat them earlier this season.

PiRate Rating–Our oldest rating is based on analysis of statistical data against the strength of schedule to date.  It is more concerned with yards per point and predicting how many yards each team will gain and surrender rather than prior points scored and surrendered.

Mean Rating–This is a more conservative statistical rating, using the mean (average) of five separate statistical and scoring data points.  Updating this rating takes up most of our time on Sundays.  Of the three ratings we submit, this one is the most independent of the other two.

Bias Rating–This rating differs from the PiRate Rating only in how the algorithm is calculated.  We give a bias to certain factors, giving these more weight than others.  It is the most liberal rating in that our updating for this one allows teams to rise and fall by more points each week than in our other two ratings.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 132.7 136.4 135.5
2 Washington 130.0 126.7 130.7 129.1
3 Clemson 130.1 127.1 129.4 128.9
4 Ohio St. 130.0 127.3 129.3 128.9
5 Penn St. 126.9 124.9 127.5 126.4
6 Oklahoma 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
7 Florida St. 124.5 122.8 123.6 123.7
8 Auburn 124.2 121.9 124.1 123.4
9 Oklahoma St. 123.0 121.3 124.1 122.8
10 Wisconsin 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
11 Georgia 119.5 120.4 119.8 119.9
12 U S C 120.0 119.5 119.9 119.8
13 Virginia Tech 119.2 118.6 120.0 119.2
14 T C U 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
15 Miami 118.9 116.6 118.3 117.9
16 Stanford 117.9 116.3 117.3 117.2
17 Michigan 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
18 Washington St. 117.3 114.9 116.7 116.3
19 Louisville 116.1 115.0 116.2 115.8
20 N. Carolina St. 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
21 L S U 115.4 113.6 116.1 115.0
22 Florida 115.5 114.7 114.8 115.0
23 Kansas St. 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
24 Notre Dame 114.1 112.7 114.6 113.8
25 Texas 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
26 Kentucky 112.9 111.5 112.6 112.3
27 Georgia Tech 113.7 111.2 111.7 112.2
28 Oregon 113.0 110.2 112.1 111.8
29 South Florida 111.7 110.0 112.7 111.5
30 Iowa 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
31 Colorado 111.8 109.7 109.6 110.3
32 Mississippi St. 109.8 110.7 110.0 110.2
33 Duke 111.0 109.7 109.7 110.1
34 West Virginia 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
35 Northwestern 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
36 Minnesota 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
37 N. Carolina 109.4 108.4 107.8 108.5
38 Central Florida 107.0 108.9 108.0 108.0
39 U C L A 108.2 107.6 107.7 107.8
40 Utah 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
41 Tennessee 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.5
42 Syracuse 107.3 105.7 106.6 106.5
43 Vanderbilt 107.1 105.6 106.3 106.3
44 Arkansas 106.5 106.0 106.2 106.3
45 Wake Forest 106.4 105.5 106.0 105.9
46 Indiana 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6
47 S. Carolina 105.4 104.8 104.4 104.9
48 Ole Miss 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
49 Memphis 105.1 103.9 105.3 104.7
50 Pittsburgh 104.7 105.0 104.0 104.6
51 Colo. State 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
52 Houston 104.7 103.7 104.6 104.3
53 Texas A&M 105.0 102.9 103.7 103.9
54 Iowa State 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
55 Virginia 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
56 San Diego St. 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.3
57 Texas Tech 103.7 103.4 102.6 103.2
58 Maryland 101.7 104.0 101.7 102.4
59 Purdue 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
60 Baylor 100.9 103.0 100.9 101.6
61 Arizona St. 101.7 101.3 100.9 101.3
62 Nebraska 100.8 102.4 99.9 101.0
63 Tulsa 100.7 100.3 100.7 100.6
64 California 101.7 99.2 100.1 100.3
65 Toledo 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
66 Michigan St. 98.1 101.1 98.8 99.3
67 Navy 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
68 Western Michigan 99.4 97.6 100.7 99.2
69 Arizona 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
70 BYU 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
71 Boston College 98.8 99.2 98.2 98.7
72 SMU 98.2 98.3 98.6 98.4
73 Boise St. 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
75 U T S A 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
76 Army 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4
77 Rutgers 96.5 96.6 95.9 96.3
78 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
79 Miami (O) 94.0 96.2 95.8 95.3
80 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
81 Air Force 93.8 94.1 94.2 94.0
82 Eastern Michigan 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.9
83 W. Kentucky 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
84 Wyoming 94.6 93.1 93.2 93.6
85 New Mexico 93.1 93.1 93.7 93.3
86 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.5 93.1
87 Temple 92.5 93.2 92.4 92.7
88 Middle Tennessee 91.9 92.4 92.4 92.2
89 Cincinnati 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
90 Oregon St. 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
91 Illinois 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.8 92.4 91.7 91.6
93 Louisiana Tech 90.4 91.4 91.3 91.1
94 Hawaii 89.8 90.8 89.8 90.1
95 Central Michigan 89.3 90.0 89.6 89.6
96 Utah St. 90.2 89.3 89.2 89.6
97 Old Dominion 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
98 Northern Illinois 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
99 Arkansas St. 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
100 Kansas 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
101 Fresno St. 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
102 U N L V 87.0 89.9 87.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
104 N. Mexico St. 88.0 86.0 88.0 87.3
105 Connecticut 85.7 88.8 86.0 86.8
106 Marshall 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
107 Nevada 84.0 86.8 85.7 85.5
108 Florida Atlantic 84.0 87.3 85.1 85.5
109 Massachusetts 85.7 84.8 85.7 85.4
110 S. Alabama 84.2 87.1 84.4 85.2
111 Buffalo 83.3 86.0 85.3 84.9
112 Georgia St. 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
113 Idaho 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
114 UL-Lafayette 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
115 Akron 83.0 86.5 82.8 84.1
116 East Carolina 83.0 84.9 83.0 83.6
117 N. Texas 81.6 83.4 81.8 82.3
118 Kent St. 81.4 82.6 82.1 82.0
119 Florida Int’l. 81.6 81.7 82.6 82.0
120 UL-Monroe 81.4 81.9 80.0 81.1
121 Bowling Green 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
122 Ball St. 79.0 81.1 80.7 80.3
123 Georgia Southern 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
124 Rice 78.4 79.5 78.6 78.8
125 San Jose St. 78.8 78.4 78.0 78.4
126 Charlotte 71.9 74.4 72.1 72.8
127 Texas St. 71.9 74.8 71.0 72.6
128 U T E P 70.9 74.7 71.0 72.2
129 Coastal Carolina 70.5 71.9 72.2 71.6
130 UAB 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 1-0 4-0 111.7 110.0 112.7 111.5
Central Florida 0-0 2-0 107.0 108.9 108.0 108.0
Temple 0-1 2-2 92.5 93.2 92.4 92.7
Cincinnati 0-1 2-2 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
Connecticut 0-1 1-2 85.7 88.8 86.0 86.8
East Carolina 1-0 1-3 83.0 84.9 83.0 83.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 3-0 105.1 103.9 105.3 104.7
Houston 0-0 2-1 104.7 103.7 104.6 104.3
Tulsa 0-0 1-3 100.7 100.3 100.7 100.6
Navy 2-0 3-0 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
SMU 0-0 3-1 98.2 98.3 98.6 98.4
Tulane 0-1 2-2 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
             
AAC Averages     97.7 98.3 98.1 98.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 2-0 4-0 130.1 127.1 129.4 128.9
Florida St. 0-1 0-2 124.5 122.8 123.6 123.7
Louisville 1-1 3-2 116.1 115.0 116.2 115.8
N. Carolina St. 1-0 3-1 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
Syracuse 0-0 2-2 107.3 105.7 106.6 106.5
Wake Forest 1-0 4-0 106.4 105.5 106.0 105.9
Boston College 0-2 1-3 98.8 99.2 98.2 98.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 0-0 4-0 119.2 118.6 120.0 119.2
Miami 0-0 2-0 118.9 116.6 118.3 117.9
Georgia Tech 1-0 2-1 113.7 111.2 111.7 112.2
Duke 1-0 4-0 111.0 109.7 109.7 110.1
N. Carolina 0-2 1-3 109.4 108.4 107.8 108.5
Pittsburgh 0-1 1-3 104.7 105.0 104.0 104.6
Virginia 0-0 3-1 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
Oklahoma St. 0-1 3-1 123.0 121.3 124.1 122.8
T C U 1-0 4-0 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
Kansas St. 0-0 2-1 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
Texas 0-0 1-2 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
West Virginia 1-0 3-1 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
Iowa State 0-0 2-1 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
Texas Tech 0-0 3-0 103.7 103.4 102.6 103.2
Baylor 0-1 0-4 100.9 103.0 100.9 101.6
Kansas 0-1 1-3 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.1 110.2 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 3-1 130.0 127.3 129.3 128.9
Penn St. 1-0 4-0 126.9 124.9 127.5 126.4
Michigan 1-0 4-0 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
Indiana 0-1 2-1 105.4 105.5 106.0 105.6
Maryland 0-0 2-1 101.7 104.0 101.7 102.4
Michigan St. 0-0 2-1 98.1 101.1 98.8 99.3
Rutgers 0-1 1-3 96.5 96.6 95.9 96.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 3-0 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
Iowa 0-1 3-1 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
Northwestern 0-0 2-1 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-0 3-0 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
Purdue 0-1 2-2 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
Nebraska 1-0 2-2 100.8 102.4 99.9 101.0
Illinois 0-0 2-1 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.7 108.5 108.7
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 2-2 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
Middle Tennessee 0-0 2-2 91.9 92.4 92.4 92.2
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
Marshall 0-0 2-1 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-3 84.0 87.3 85.1 85.5
Florida Int’l. 1-0 2-1 81.6 81.7 82.6 82.0
Charlotte 0-0 0-4 71.9 74.4 72.1 72.8
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 3-0 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
Louisiana Tech 1-0 2-2 90.4 91.4 91.3 91.1
Southern Miss. 0-0 2-1 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
N. Texas 1-0 2-2 81.6 83.4 81.8 82.3
Rice 1-1 1-3 78.4 79.5 78.6 78.8
U T E P 0-1 0-4 70.9 74.7 71.0 72.2
UAB 0-1 2-2 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.5 85.2 84.3 84.3
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   3-1 114.1 112.7 114.6 113.8
BYU   1-3 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
Army   2-2 96.3 95.9 97.1 96.4
Massachusetts   0-5 85.7 84.8 85.7 85.4
             
Indep. Averages     98.7 97.9 99.2 98.6
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 1-0 2-2 94.0 96.2 95.8 95.3
Ohio U 1-0 3-1 90.8 92.4 91.7 91.6
Buffalo 0-0 2-2 83.3 86.0 85.3 84.9
Akron 0-0 1-3 83.0 86.5 82.8 84.1
Kent St. 0-0 1-3 81.4 82.6 82.1 82.0
Bowling Green 0-0 0-4 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 3-1 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
Western Michigan 0-0 2-2 99.4 97.6 100.7 99.2
Eastern Michigan 0-1 2-1 94.0 93.8 93.8 93.9
Central Michigan 0-1 2-2 89.3 90.0 89.6 89.6
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
Ball St. 0-0 2-2 79.0 81.1 80.7 80.3
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.7 89.5 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 2-2 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
Boise St. 1-0 2-2 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
Air Force 0-1 1-2 93.8 94.1 94.2 94.0
Wyoming 1-0 2-2 94.6 93.1 93.2 93.6
New Mexico 0-1 2-2 93.1 93.1 93.7 93.3
Utah St. 1-0 2-2 90.2 89.3 89.2 89.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 4-0 103.0 103.0 104.0 103.3
Hawaii 0-1 2-2 89.8 90.8 89.8 90.1
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
U N L V 0-0 1-2 87.0 89.9 87.4 88.1
Nevada 0-0 0-4 84.0 86.8 85.7 85.5
San Jose St. 0-1 1-4 78.8 78.4 78.0 78.4
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 1-0 4-0 130.0 126.7 130.7 129.1
Stanford 1-1 2-2 117.9 116.3 117.3 117.2
Washington St. 1-0 4-0 117.3 114.9 116.7 116.3
Oregon 0-1 3-1 113.0 110.2 112.1 111.8
California 0-1 3-1 101.7 99.2 100.1 100.3
Oregon St. 0-1 1-3 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 2-0 4-0 120.0 119.5 119.9 119.8
Colorado 0-1 3-1 111.8 109.7 109.6 110.3
U C L A 0-1 2-2 108.2 107.6 107.7 107.8
Utah 1-0 4-0 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
Arizona St. 1-0 2-2 101.7 101.3 100.9 101.3
Arizona 0-1 2-2 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 1-0 4-0 119.5 120.4 119.8 119.9
Florida 2-0 2-1 115.5 114.7 114.8 115.0
Kentucky 1-1 3-1 112.9 111.5 112.6 112.3
Tennessee 0-1 3-1 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.5
Vanderbilt 0-1 3-1 107.1 105.6 106.3 106.3
S. Carolina 1-1 3-1 105.4 104.8 104.4 104.9
Missouri 0-2 1-3 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 1-0 4-0 137.5 132.7 136.4 135.5
Auburn 1-0 3-1 124.2 121.9 124.1 123.4
L S U 0-1 3-1 115.4 113.6 116.1 115.0
Mississippi St. 1-1 3-1 109.8 110.7 110.0 110.2
Arkansas 0-1 1-2 106.5 106.0 106.2 106.3
Ole Miss 0-0 2-1 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
Texas A&M 1-0 3-1 105.0 102.9 103.7 103.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.5 111.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-2 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
Troy 1-0 3-1 93.3 93.6 92.5 93.1
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
N. Mexico St. 0-1 2-2 88.0 86.0 88.0 87.3
S. Alabama 0-1 1-3 84.2 87.1 84.4 85.2
Georgia St. 0-0 1-2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
Idaho 1-0 2-2 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
UL-Lafayette 0-1 1-3 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
UL-Monroe 1-0 1-2 81.4 81.9 80.0 81.1
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-3 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
Texas St. 0-1 1-3 71.9 74.8 71.0 72.6
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-2 70.5 71.9 72.2 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.0 84.8 84.0 84.3

How The Conferences Rate

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.5 111.5
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.1 110.2 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.7 108.5 108.7
6 INDEP. 98.7 97.9 99.2 98.6
7 AAC 97.7 98.3 98.1 98.0
8 MWC 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.6 89.7 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.5 85.2 84.3 84.3
11 Sun Belt 84.0 84.8 84.0 84.3

Alabama Takes Commanding Lead
Alabama’s most recent victory, a 59-0 pasting of Vanderbilt, propelled the top-ranked Tide into a rather lofty status this week. With the win, accompanied by unimpressive wins by Clemson and Oklahoma, Alabama has now opened a better than six-point cushion in the PiRate Ratings over the number two team. It is not often in PiRate Ratings’ history that a number one team has been rated more than six points ahead of the number two team. It puts ‘Bama in esteemed company. Since our ratings started in 1969, only two other number one teams held a greater than six-point edge over the number two team at the end of a season. Unfortunately, we do not have in-season information on our ratings prior to 1989.

If you were wondering, the other two teams that held a better than six-point edge on the field were Miami (Fla.) in 2001 and Nebraska in 1995. This does not mean that Alabama is one of the three best teams in our history; it just means they are in line to become one of three of the most dominant in a single season when compared to others from that particular year.  Alabama’s current rating is still historically lower than many others, namely Nebraska and Oklahoma of 1971, USC of 1972, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma of 1973, Oklahoma of 1974, Miami (Fla.) of 1987, USC of 2004, and Texas of 2005.
New Number Two
Speaking of number two, there is a new team in that position yet again. To date, the number two team has changed each week. This week, that distinguished honor goes to Washington (although Clemson stayed number two in our retrodictive ratings).

Best Group of 5
South Florida and San Diego State opened a little room over most of the rest of the Group of 5 field in the quest to receive the lone automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid awarded to this group.  However, one new team moved into contention to make this an interesting three-team race at this point. Central Florida not only won at Maryland, they destroyed the Terps. UCF Head Coach Scott Frost just established himself as a potential front-runner to return to his alma mater the moment Nebraska makes its next coaching change.

The Three Best Games This Week
The ACC passed the SEC in PiRate Rating superiority last week and slightly widened that lead this past weekend. Now, it showcases two of the top three games of this week.

Clemson may have been looking ahead to this week and thus failed to thrive for more than a half against Boston College. The Tigers face what is probably their stiffest test of the regular season with a trip to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech in the Saturday night prime-time game on ABC. Virginia Tech’s defense may be strong enough to keep the Hokies in the game and give Tech a legitimate chance at the upset.

Miami visits Durham to take on Duke in a game that will go far in deciding who will contend with Virginia Tech in the Coastal Division.

The other key game this week takes place Friday Night in the Palouse, where USC invades Pullman to take on Washington State. It promises to be a game with a lot of passing yards and total points scored, and it might be one of those four-hour marathons. It just could be the most exciting game of September.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 24, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for August 26, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:19 am

It’s here!  We hope you enjoyed a nice summer.  It’s football time in America once again.  Yes, in just two days, five college football games will dot the abbreviated schedule, including a game in Sydney, Australia.

For those new to this online establishment, the PiRates have been issuing ratings since 1969, when the Captain was a little buccaneer.  The ratings have been refined through the years, and in its current form, they look beyond the score of the game.  Our ratings rely on a perusal of the play-by-play data of the games, when the scores took place, how many yards were gained by each team, turnovers, and other odds and sods.  Two teams favored by 7 points over their opponents could both win their games 42-24, and they could mean two different things.  One team might have led 42-7 midway through the third quarter and allowed 17 points with their reserves.  The other team might have led 28-24 with 6 minutes to go in the game, and then the trailing team gave up a pick six and a fumble at their own 15 yard line to give up two late scores.  The former team could have won 70-7 if they had not let off the gas pedal, while the latter team might have lost the game had the turnovers not occurred.

Also, we factor in depth all through the season, underclassmen that contribute unexpectedly, and other factors that might affect a game score.  Additionally, our home field advantages are not fluid.  If North Carolina hosts Wake Forest, the home field advantage will be less than if North Carolina hosts Oregon State.  In some instances, the visiting team brings along an away from home field disadvantage.

We have three predictive ratings–PiRate, Mean, and Bias.  We also have retrodictive ratings that look only at past results and try to rank teams the way the polls should rank them.  At the beginning of the season, these retrodictive ratings have a rather high standard deviation, so we normalize them a bit with our predictive ratings.  By mid-October, these ratings are 100% retrodictive.

Let’s take a look at our Predictive Ratings for the 130 FBS schools.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
2 Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
3 Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
4 Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
5 Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
6 Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
7 Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
8 Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
9 U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
10 Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
11 L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
12 Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
13 Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
14 Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
15 Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
16 Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
17 Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
18 Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
19 Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
20 N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
21 Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
22 Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
23 Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
24 Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
25 Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
26 Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
27 Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
28 Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
29 South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
30 T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
31 Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
32 Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
33 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
34 Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
35 Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
36 Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
37 N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
38 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
39 U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
40 West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
41 Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
42 Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
43 Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
44 Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
45 Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
46 S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
47 Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
48 Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
49 Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
50 Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
51 Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
52 Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
53 Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
54 Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
55 Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
56 B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
57 Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
58 Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
59 Boston Coll. 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
60 Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
61 Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
62 Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
63 Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
64 Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
65 San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
66 Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
67 Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
68 W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
69 Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
70 Appalachian St. 99.8 96.8 100.4 99.0
71 Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
72 Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
73 Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
74 Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
75 Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
76 Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
77 SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
78 California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
79 Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
80 Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
82 Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
83 Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
84 Troy 94.1 94.4 93.4 94.0
85 Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
86 New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
87 U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
88 Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
89 Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
90 Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
91 Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
92 Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
93 Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
94 Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
95 Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
96 Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
97 Arkansas St. 88.3 90.1 90.0 89.5
98 Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
99 East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
100 Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
101 Idaho 86.4 89.1 87.2 87.5
102 Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
103 U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
104 Georgia St. 86.3 85.5 86.2 86.0
105 Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
106 Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
107 San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
108 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.8 84.7 85.5
109 Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
110 Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
111 Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
112 S. Alabama 83.8 86.8 84.0 84.9
113 Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
114 Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
115 Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
116 Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
117 N. Mexico St. 84.2 81.5 83.2 83.0
118 Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
119 Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
120 Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
121 N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
122 Georgia Southern 80.4 82.1 79.8 80.8
123 Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
124 Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
125 UL-Monroe 79.6 80.2 77.8 79.2
126 U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
127 Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
128 Coastal Carolina 72.1 73.5 73.9 73.2
129 Texas St. 70.7 74.7 69.4 71.6
130 UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3

Here are the predictive ratings by conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
         
AAC Averages   98.7 98.7 98.5
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
         
ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
         
Big 12 Averages 108.4 108.7 108.6 108.6
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3
         
CUSA Averages 89.9 92.1 91.0 91.0
         
Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
         
Independents Averages 98.3 97.1 98.7 98.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
         
MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
         
MWC Averages 91.6 91.9 91.8 91.7
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.7 109.1 109.8 109.9
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
         
SEC Averages 113.1 111.6 112.4 112.4
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.8 96.8 100.4 99.0
Troy 94.1 94.4 93.4 94.0
Arkansas St. 88.3 90.1 90.0 89.5
Idaho 86.4 89.1 87.2 87.5
Georgia St. 86.3 85.5 86.2 86.0
UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.8 84.7 85.5
S. Alabama 83.8 86.8 84.0 84.9
N. Mexico St. 84.2 81.5 83.2 83.0
Georgia Southern 80.4 82.1 79.8 80.8
UL-Monroe 79.6 80.2 77.8 79.2
Coastal Carolina 72.1 73.5 73.9 73.2
Texas St. 70.7 74.7 69.4 71.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 84.2 85.1 84.2 84.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC Averages 113.1 111.6 112.4 112.4
2 ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8
3 Pac-12 Averages 110.7 109.1 109.8 109.9
4 Big 12 Averages 108.4 108.7 108.6 108.6
5 Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1
6 AAC Averages 98.2 98.7 98.7 98.5
7 Independents Averages 98.3 97.1 98.7 98.0
8 MWC Averages 91.6 91.9 91.8 91.7
9 CUSA Averages 89.9 92.1 91.0 91.0
10 MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4
11 Sun Belt Averages 84.2 85.1 84.2 84.5

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Florida St.
4 Clemson
5 Washington
6 Oklahoma
7 USC
8 Penn St.
9 LSU
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Auburn
12 Miami (Fla)
13 Wisconsin
14 Stanford
15 Michigan
16 Florida
17 Virginia Tech
18 Kansas St.
19 Louisville
20 Washington St.
21 Georgia
22 Texas A&M
23 Georgia Tech
24 Utah
25 Tennessee
26 South Florida
27 Iowa
28 Tulsa
29 West Virginia
30 North Carolina
31 Nebraska
32 Western Michigan
33 Colorado
34 North Carolina St.
35 Pittsburgh
36 BYU
37 Houston
38 Northwestern
39 Kentucky
40 TCU
41 Western Kentucky
42 Boise St.
43 Appalachian St.
44 San Diego St.
45 Toledo
46 Minnesota
47 Arkansas
48 Memphis
49 Texas
50 Baylor
51 Mississippi St.
52 Colorado St.
53 Oregon
54 Vanderbilt
55 Ole Miss
56 South Carolina
57 Temple
58 Troy
59 Navy
60 UCLA
61 Notre Dame
62 California
63 Indiana
64 Idaho
65 Wake Forest
66 Old Dominion
67 Louisiana Tech
68 Boston College
69 Arkansas St.
70 Air Force
71 Michigan St.
72 Central Florida
73 Syracuse
74 Duke
75 Missouri
76 Wyoming
77 Texas Tech
78 Arizona St.
79 New Mexico
80 Maryland
81 Arizona
82 Oregon St.
83 Army
84 Ohio
85 Eastern Michigan
86 Middle Tennessee
87 Southern Miss.
88 SMU
89 Iowa St.
90 Northern Illinois
91 UTSA
92 Hawaii
93 Georgia Southern
94 Central Michigan
95 Miami (O)
96 UL-Lafayette
97 Cincinnati
98 Illinois
99 Tulane
100 South Alabama
101 Purdue
102 Akron
103 Utah St.
104 Virginia
105 San Jose St.
106 Nevada
107 Bowling Green
108 North Texas
109 East Carolina
110 UNLV
111 Rutgers
112 Coastal Carolina
113 Kansas
114 Ball St.
115 Georgia St.
116 Connecticut
117 UL-Monroe
118 Kent St.
119 UTEP
120 Charlotte
121 Marshall
122 Florida Int’l.
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 New Mexico St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Texas St.
129 Buffalo
130 UAB

 

This Week’s Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Colorado St. Oregon St. 1.8 1.8 3.1
Massachusetts Hawaii 0.2 -1.4 1.4
San Jose St. South Florida -21.4 -20.0 -23.3
Stanford * Rice 38.4 35.2 36.4
         
* This game will be played in Sydney, Australia

 

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
BYU Portland St. 32.0

 

BOWL PROJECTIONS

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Middle Tennessee South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Temple Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 San Diego St. UCLA
New Mexico CUSA MWC Southern Miss. New Mexico
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston Louisiana Tech
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Idaho
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Central Florida Western Kentucky
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Old Dominion Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Tulsa Mississippi St.
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Florida Atlantic]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Georgia St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Memphis Colorado St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Syracuse] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Duke Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 West Virginia Colorado
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Georgia Tech [Navy]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Notre Dame Nebraska
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Minnesota Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 TCU Arkansas
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [BYU] North Carolina
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Kansas St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Iowa Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Texas Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Louisville Tennessee
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 North Carolina St. Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Miami (Fla) Vanderbilt
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Troy
Cotton At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Florida
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Baylor Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Washington Oklahoma St.
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Georgia
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Kentucky
Peach At-large At-large Florida St. South Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Wisconsin LSU
Rose Playoff Semi-final Auburn Alabama
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. USC
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Ohio St. Alabama

Note: There will be no money line parlay selections issued this week.  There are not enough games.  That feature will commence next Thursday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 23, 2017

2017 Southeastern Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:54 am

The old adage goes that a southern gentleman’s three favorite professional sports leagues are, the NFC, the AFC, and the SEC.  Others see SEC football as a religion, and whoever is the head coach at Alabama, as the reigning Moses with direct communication to the Great Bear in the Sky.

For those that have not followed college football more than a few years, this league has been around for almost 85 years, but even before then, the league members were “killing it” on the gridiron.  As far back as 1904, the Crimson Tide played excellent footbal, and under Hall of Fame Coach Wallace Wade, the 1925 Alabama football team won the Southern Conference, the Rose Bowl, and finished 10-0 as the nation’s best team.

What is the top annual college football award? Easy: it’s the Heisman Trophy, named for John Heisman.  Heisman coached at two different schools that would become charter members of the SEC–Georgia Tech and Auburn.

General Robert Neyland led Tennessee from 1926 to 1952 with a couple of breaks to serve in the military.  Neyland was considered the best defensive coach in the history of the game, and one of his Volunteer teams shut out every opponent on the schedule.  Even at what is considered the bottom feeder programs of the league, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, both schools have pasts where they were not only great, they were the best in the nation.  Bear Bryant guided the 1950 Wildcats to an 11-1 season and major upset victory over number one Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl.  Dan McGugin led the Commodores from 1904 to 1934, finishing with a record of 197-55-19 and winning multiple national championships at Vandy (retroactively according to recognized computer polls).  So, when you see the 14 SEC teams fighting it out week after week this year and think that they all of a sudden became the behemoths of the college football world, recall that this is not a new phenomenon.  The SEC is as storied as Major League Baseball.

2017 figures to be another great year in this league with four or five teams capable of making the Playoffs.  It is higher than an average chance that this season could see two SEC teams making the Playoffs.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason.

SEC East Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Georgia 138 1,572 6
2 Florida 96 1,526 3
3 Tennessee 3 998 0
4 South Carolina 5 897 1
5 Kentucky 0 869 0
6 Vanderbilt 1 554 1
7 Missouri 0 388 0
         
SEC West Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Alabama 225 1,683 217
2 Auburn 13 1,329 11
3 LSU 4 1,262 3
4 Arkansas 1 796 1
5 Texas A&M 0 722 0
6 Mississippi St. 0 633 0
7 Ole Miss 0 379 0

The PiRate Ratings are a tad different, but you can see there are several highly-regarded teams, as all 14 teams rate above 100.0.

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
         
SEC Averages 113.1 111.6 112.4 112.4

And, take a look at our unscientific won-loss predictions and bowl projections.  You will notce that we believe there will be a surprise this year.

Southeastern Conference Projected Standings
East Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Georgia 6-2 10-3 Orange
Florida 6-2 8-4 Taxslayer
Kentucky 5-3 9-3 Outback
Tennessee 4-4 7-5 Belk
Vanderbilt 3-5 7-5 Music City
South Carolina 3-5 5-7  
Missouri 1-7 5-7  
       
West Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Auburn 7-1 12-1 PLAYOFFS
Alabama 7-1 11-1 PLAYOFFS
LSU 5-3 9-3 Citrus
Arkansas 3-5 7-5 Texas
Texas A&M 3-5 6-6 Liberty
Mississippi St. 2-6 6-6 Birmingham
Ole Miss 1-7 5-7  
       
Auburn to win SEC Championship Game

What the PiRate Ratings think at the start of this season:  Yes, you see that correctly above!  We have Alabama rated number one in the nation to begin the season, but we have Auburn picked as the SEC West Champion.  The two rivals play in Auburn this year, and our preseason belief is that Alabama will enter that game 11-0, while Auburn is 10-1.  We then show Auburn winning the game to take the West Division, while Alabama finished second with an 11-1 record, probably falling to third in the playoff seeding.

Then, we show Auburn winning the SEC Championship, earning the number two playoff seed.  You will see tomorrow that we have only one team picked to go undefeated, and that will be Ohio State (or in other words the winner of the Ohio State-Penn State game).  We previously showed you that we believe USC at 10-2 will knock off 12-0 Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

We then foresee USC sneaking into the #4 seed in the Playoffs, with Ohio State the top-seed.  Do you know what would happen if the seeding goes Ohio State, Auburn, Alabama, and USC?  The rules for the playoff state that the overall number one seed must have the bowl site advantage over the number four seed.  Since the two playoff semifinal games are the Rose and Sugar Bowls, Ohio State could not possibly play USC in the Rose Bowl.  It would make for a very interesting Sugar Bowl matchup between the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions.

But, then look what the Rose Bowl would get.  How about the crazy rematch of Alabama and Auburn in the Rose Bowl?  Can you imagine the insanity of a week in the L.A. area between the fans of the two schools?  In addition, the City of Angels likes its epic productions, and this would be the Rose Bowl for the ages.  Imagine the Tournament of Roses Parade with all the crimson and white and burnt orange and navy.  Yea, Alabama versus War Eagle.  Los Angeles hasn’t seen anything like this since Cecile B. Demille last made movies–the 10 Commandments of Football become the Greatest Show on Earth!

 

Coming tomorrow: It’s here.  The college football season kicks off Saturday, and we will commence with our regular weekly format.  This is our plan for 2017.

1. A weekly college forecast with our PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for all 130 FBS teams, and our spreads for the week’s games.

2. A weekly NFL forecast with the same ratings and spreads

3. A weekly Money Line Parlay edition in which we attempt to go for a third consecutive year where we make a large return on investment (just for fun, as we do not wager actual money on games).4. Returning this year on Friday afternoons: During the last three years, we have been a little too busy to devote time to the retro-football league that we enjoyed performing.  Many of you have asked about this in this time, and we are happy to announce it is coming back.

Many of you reading this may know that Sports Illustrated and Avalon Hill put out a couple of excellent and fun tabletop football games several decades ago.  The college version was called, “Bowl Bound,” and the NFL version was called, “Paydirt.”  The games are no longer made, but many football and math lovers have continued making the teams for this game.  The codes were not that hard to crack, and actually, some of the more advanced analytics experts were able to improve on these games.  What we will use for our recreations is an advanced version of this game.  The teams have updated charts to more closely match what these teams’ results.  We must admit that the originator of these games did not have access to an Internet that did not exist.  Enough information is out there to more accurately estimate a teams’ strengths and weaknesses and then to normalize it so that an average team in 1950 and an average team in 1975 should approach a mean score of 21-21 with both teams winning 50 of 100 games.

Thus, if a team is 12 points better than average in 1950, they are as strong as a team that is 12 points better than average in 1975.

This is how it will work this year.

A. We are using 14 NFL teams from the period between 1950 and 1975, using the rules and schedule of 1965.  Kickoffs will be from the 40 yard line; the goalposts will be on the goal lines and not on the end lines (shouldn’t they be called end posts now?); there will be no 10-yard penalties.  Holding and other current 10-yard penalties will be 15-yard penalties like in the “good ole days;” there will be no overtime for regular season games.

B. We are also using the 10 AFL teams from the period between 1960 and 1975, using the rules, and the schedule from the 1968 season.

C. There will be an NFL Championship Game and AFL Championship Game and then a Super Bowl between the two champions.

Here are the 24 teams that will be used for this event.

NFL East

Cleveland 1950

Dallas 1971

NY Giants 1959

Philadelphia 1960

Pittsburgh 1975

St. Louis 1975

Washington 1972

NFL West

Baltimore 1958

Chicago 1963

Detroit 1954

Green Bay 1962

Los Angeles 1967

Minnesota 1975

San Francisco 1970

AFL East

Boston 1964

Buffalo 1964

Houston 1961

Miami 1972

NY Jets 1968

AFL West

Cincinnati 1973

Denver 1973

Kansas City 1969

Oakland 1967

San Diego 1963

The games will be played using a computer-assisted play-calling system based on the tendencies of the teams in question.  For instance, Miami will have more fullback power runs inside the tackles.  Minnesota will feature more passes with the quarterback moving out of the pocket.  The NY Jets and Oakland will feature more of a vertical passing game, while Cincinnati relies more on the precursor to the West Coast Offense.  On defense, teams like the Rams will be tough to run on and trouble for quarterbacks without strong offensive lines.

The teams will play a 14-game regular season schedule with the champions of each division only making the playoffs–no wildcard teams.

November 17, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 17-21, 2016

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:00 am

Abbreviated Post today due to time concerns.

Here are our 5 parlay picks for this week

 

November 15-21, 2016
1. College Parlay at +120
Memphis over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh over Duke
South Florida over SMU
 
2. College Parlay at +318
Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
Central Florida over Tulsa
 
3. College Parlay at +163
Ole Miss over Vanderbilt
USC over UCLA
Nebraska over Maryland
LSU over Florida
Utah over Oregon
 
4. NFL Parlay at +132
Indianapolis over Tennessee
Detroit over Jacksonville
 
5. NFL Parlay at +139
Kansas City over Tampa Bay
Seattle over Philadelphia
N.Y. Giants over Chicago

 

September 26, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For September 29-October 1, 2016

Less Smiles in Baton Rouge

On Sunday, LSU fired Coach Les Miles after Miles’ team lost at Auburn Saturday night in a game that could have gone LSU’s way had the officials decided that the final play was run in time.  The clock ran out on a play in which it was plain to see that the head referee never signaled to start the clock.

Of course, Miles did not lose his job on this one play.  We believe he lost his job because LSU has not been able to secure a star quarterback since Zach Mettenberger left.  Miles actually had two commitments from potential stars and then lost them at the eleventh hour.  Braxton Miller was set to come to LSU, and that would have made the Tigers much stronger.  Gunner Kiel committed to LSU before de-committing and committing to Notre Dame, before de-committing and committing to Cincinnati, before quitting, before returning as the third string QB for the Bearcats.

Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was let go as well, and former Ole Miss head coach and USC interim Ed Orgeron takes over as the interim in Baton Rouge.  We believe Orgeron has about a 0.3% chance (1 in about 333) of getting the gig full-time.  LSU would have to run the table from here, win the SEC Championship Game, and then win convincingly in the Sugar Bowl for that to happen.

So, who replaces Miles at LSU.  Immediately, the name of Art Briles came up in some circles.  Some say that Briles was merely a scapegoat, and that he will land somewhere in 2017.  There will be numerous openings at schools where winning is all that matters.  We don’t believe Briles will end up in Baton Rouge.

Two names that we feel could be more serious candidates are Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher and Houston’s Tom Herman.  Prior to becoming the coach in waiting and then the head coach at Florida State, Fisher was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at LSU during a time when the Bengal Tigers produced JaMarcus Russell and won a national championship in 2003.

Herman was Urban Meyer’s offensive guru at Ohio State prior to taking the Houston job.  With the Cougars undefeated and facing a probable run into the top four before playing Louisville in November, if UH runs the table and makes the NCAA Playoffs, there is no way he could leave for another job at that point, and LSU’s recruiting effort for 2017 would be shot by then.

There are a few other options.  Bobby Petrino at Louisville and Todd Graham at Arizona State have proven to be as nomadic as Larry Brown on the basketball court.  A few extra pesos thrown their way can get them to jump.  Then there is the potential NFL route.  USC took Pete Carroll and reaped many rewards.  What if Sean Payton was available before the season ended?  Or, how about Bruce Arians?

 

A Lot of Haves

It’s still early in the season, but there are an inordinate amount of teams still undefeated four weeks into the season.  By December, the number will whittle down to two or three at most, but until then, there are some interesting match ups on the schedule ahead.

It starts this week, when Stanford and Washington square off in Seattle Friday night.  The game will air on ESPN at 9PM Eastern Time for those that want to watch the unofficial crowning of the Pac-12 North champion.  It continues Saturday, when Michigan host Wisconsin at 3:30 PM Eastern Time on ABC.  Then, in prime-time, Louisville ventured to Deaf Valley to face Clemson at 8 PM Eastern on ABC.

In the coming weeks, there are potential unbeaten contests between Tennessee and Texas A&M, Tennessee or Texas A&M against Alabama, Ohio State and Wisconsin, Ohio State and Nebraska, Nebraska and Wisconsin, Washington and Utah, Washington and Arizona State, Utah and Arizona State, Louisville and Houston, and Boise State and San Diego State in the MWC Championship Game.  Oh, and then there is the possibility that Ohio State and Michigan could square off in the Giant Horseshoe on November 26 with “everything” on the line.  The two rivals have been in this boat before.  Both teams were undefeated heading into this game in 1970, 1973, and 2006.

Bowl Projections Begin Today

We usually wait until after the first week in October to post our initial bowl projections, but we went ahead and scooted that up a week this year.  The reason why we did it is that we feel there are already fewer than 80 teams on pace to win six games.  With teams like USC, Oregon, California LSU, Texas Tech, Connecticut, Duke, and others looking at potential 5-7 seasons, it isn’t going to be easy finding some good bowl games.  Then, there are possibilities where a top 20 team could be squaring off against a 6-6 or 5-7 team in a bowl.  Although we do not favor 5-7 or even 6-6 teams getting post-season rewards, we will remind you that three 5-7 teams played in bowls last season, and all three won.  See our projections at the end of this feature.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.2 124.1 131.0 128.8
2 Louisville 127.9 122.3 128.1 126.1
3 Michigan 124.7 122.2 125.2 124.0
4 Ohio St. 123.2 122.5 124.7 123.5
5 Clemson 124.0 115.9 122.9 120.9
6 Tennessee 121.9 118.0 121.8 120.6
7 LSU 122.4 117.0 121.4 120.3
8 Oklahoma 120.1 117.4 120.0 119.2
9 Stanford 121.7 114.7 120.6 119.0
10 Houston 117.8 115.8 120.2 117.9
11 Miami 120.3 113.0 120.2 117.8
12 Florida St. 119.6 112.7 118.8 117.0
13 Washington 119.4 111.9 119.3 116.9
14 Virginia Tech 116.4 116.0 116.9 116.4
15 Texas A&M 116.5 115.0 116.4 116.0
16 Auburn 115.5 113.7 115.4 114.9
17 North Carolina 117.0 110.5 116.6 114.7
18 Pittsburgh 116.1 111.4 115.3 114.3
19 Ole Miss 116.4 110.1 115.9 114.1
20 Oklahoma St. 113.7 114.7 113.6 114.0
21 Wisconsin 114.2 112.2 114.7 113.7
22 TCU 113.3 114.6 113.1 113.7
23 Florida 112.8 115.7 111.1 113.2
24 Iowa 114.3 111.3 113.8 113.1
25 Baylor 112.3 112.4 113.3 112.7
26 Texas 112.2 113.7 111.3 112.4
27 Nebraska 113.0 109.4 113.2 111.9
28 USC 113.5 108.9 110.8 111.1
29 UCLA 111.4 110.2 111.0 110.9
30 Notre Dame 112.5 109.2 110.9 110.9
31 Mississippi St. 111.8 109.6 110.9 110.8
32 Oregon 111.3 109.8 110.5 110.5
33 Colorado 111.6 107.3 112.1 110.4
34 Arkansas 112.3 107.9 109.7 110.0
35 Michigan St. 110.9 109.8 109.2 110.0
36 Boise St. 108.8 109.6 110.6 109.7
37 South Florida 109.9 106.9 110.8 109.2
38 Utah 111.3 105.8 109.2 108.8
39 Kansas St. 107.2 110.2 107.1 108.2
40 Georgia Tech 109.7 105.7 108.7 108.0
41 Georgia 108.2 108.1 107.4 107.9
42 Arizona St. 108.2 108.1 107.0 107.8
43 BYU 109.9 103.8 109.5 107.7
44 Western Michigan 107.1 105.3 108.9 107.1
45 West Virginia 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
46 Washington St. 107.7 104.9 107.6 106.8
47 North Carolina St. 107.0 104.8 106.4 106.1
48 San Diego St. 106.0 103.1 108.4 105.9
49 Memphis 107.2 103.1 105.5 105.3
50 Penn St. 104.9 107.1 103.7 105.2
51 Arizona 105.6 103.0 104.6 104.4
52 Toledo 104.4 103.0 105.4 104.3
53 Texas Tech 105.6 103.4 103.5 104.2
54 Missouri 104.4 103.6 104.2 104.1
55 Northwestern 105.7 100.7 104.0 103.5
56 Minnesota 103.9 102.3 103.6 103.3
57 Central Michigan 101.6 103.7 102.6 102.6
58 Indiana 101.2 105.1 100.5 102.3
59 Wake Forest 102.9 101.2 102.3 102.2
60 Maryland 101.6 105.2 99.4 102.1
61 Air Force 101.1 101.7 101.6 101.5
62 California 104.8 97.1 102.5 101.5
63 Cincinnati 100.8 101.5 101.1 101.2
64 Vanderbilt 102.6 98.4 101.2 100.8
65 Duke 100.9 101.3 99.5 100.6
66 Virginia 101.5 99.1 101.0 100.5
67 Boston College 100.7 99.7 100.2 100.2
68 Syracuse 101.9 98.2 100.3 100.2
69 Tulsa 98.7 101.0 99.4 99.7
70 Western Kentucky 100.7 96.3 101.8 99.6
71 South Carolina 99.9 99.2 99.2 99.5
72 Temple 99.1 99.6 99.3 99.4
73 Navy 99.0 98.9 98.5 98.8
74 Appalachian St. 97.7 96.8 99.7 98.1
75 Rutgers 98.3 95.7 96.9 97.0
76 Iowa St. 97.4 97.0 96.2 96.9
77 Purdue 97.7 95.7 96.9 96.8
78 Army 92.6 101.0 95.6 96.4
79 Illinois 97.7 94.4 96.7 96.3
80 Kentucky 95.9 98.2 94.8 96.3
81 Connecticut 97.0 94.7 96.6 96.1
82 Oregon St. 97.6 93.4 95.5 95.5
83 Southern Mississippi 94.4 94.4 95.5 94.8
84 Utah St. 93.7 96.3 93.3 94.4
85 Ohio 91.2 99.8 92.2 94.4
86 Middle Tennessee 93.8 95.1 94.3 94.4
87 East Carolina 93.5 95.6 93.7 94.3
88 Troy 91.4 96.2 93.3 93.7
89 New Mexico 92.3 95.3 93.1 93.6
90 Nevada 91.5 94.6 92.5 92.9
91 Northern Illinois 91.7 92.9 92.4 92.3
92 Central Florida 91.2 93.8 91.3 92.1
93 Georgia Southern 91.3 91.1 93.6 92.0
94 SMU 91.2 90.7 93.5 91.8
95 Louisiana Tech 90.0 92.2 91.1 91.1
96 Marshall 89.0 92.8 90.8 90.9
97 UNLV 87.7 92.3 87.7 89.2
98 Akron 86.7 92.7 88.2 89.2
99 Arkansas St. 87.5 89.5 89.0 88.7
100 Colorado St. 87.2 89.5 87.7 88.1
101 San Jose St. 87.4 87.5 87.6 87.5
102 Old Dominion 86.0 89.3 86.2 87.2
103 Ball St. 86.1 88.2 87.1 87.1
104 Kansas 85.0 92.5 82.3 86.6
105 Tulane 84.3 88.1 84.6 85.7
106 Miami (O) 84.7 85.4 86.2 85.4
107 Bowling Green 85.7 84.5 85.1 85.1
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.3 84.2 84.5
109 Massachusetts 81.1 88.6 82.8 84.2
110 Georgia St. 81.6 86.7 83.3 83.9
111 Wyoming 83.3 83.6 83.5 83.5
112 Florida Atlantic 81.5 84.8 83.0 83.1
113 Rice 80.7 88.0 80.5 83.1
114 South Alabama 79.8 87.4 81.2 82.8
115 Fresno St. 81.5 85.6 81.1 82.7
116 UTSA 79.0 86.5 81.6 82.4
117 Buffalo 79.0 87.6 80.5 82.4
118 Eastern Michigan 80.5 85.1 81.4 82.3
119 UL-Lafayette 77.0 84.9 78.8 80.3
120 Idaho 77.8 83.4 79.2 80.1
121 Florida International 77.2 83.9 77.8 79.6
122 Hawaii 77.2 75.9 76.3 76.5
123 North Texas 75.4 78.3 75.6 76.5
124 New Mexico St. 72.9 75.7 73.7 74.1
125 UTEP 71.7 76.0 73.1 73.6
126 Charlotte 70.8 77.2 72.1 73.4
127 UL-Monroe 70.2 75.3 70.8 72.1
128 Texas St. 69.8 71.0 70.8 70.5

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Houston
5 Michigan
6 Tennessee
7 Stanford
8 Washington
9 Louisville
10 Texas A&M
11 Wisconsin
12 Baylor
13 Nebraska
14 Arkansas
15 Florida St.
16 Utah
17 Oklahoma
18 Ole Miss
19 Miami (Fla)
20 LSU
21 Michigan St.
22 Georgia
23 San Diego St.
24 Florida
25 Toledo
26 Western Michigan
27 North Carolina
28 South Florida
29 Boise St.
30 Iowa
31 TCU
32 West Virginia
33 Oregon
34 Navy
35 UCLA
36 Arizona St.
37 Virginia Tech
38 Memphis
39 Notre Dame
40 Oklahoma St.
41 Central Michigan
42 Auburn
43 USC
44 Georgia Tech
45 California
46 Minnesota
47 Colorado
48 Pittsburgh
49 Texas
50 Western Kentucky
51 Texas Tech
52 Kansas St.
53 Penn St.
54 BYU
55 Mississippi St.
56 Air Force
57 Washington St.
58 Georgia Southern
59 Wake Forest
60 Maryland
61 Indiana
62 North Carolina St.
63 Cincinnati
64 Tulsa
65 Missouri
66 Army
67 South Carolina
68 Arizona
69 Southern Miss.
70 Troy
71 Appalachian St.
72 Northwestern
73 East Carolina
74 Temple
75 Utah St.
76 Akron
77 Louisiana Tech
78 Duke
79 Vanderbilt
80 Middle Tennessee
81 Marshall
82 Boston College
83 Rutgers
84 Connecticut
85 Ohio
86 Syracuse
87 Nevada
88 Colorado St.
89 Ball St.
90 Kentucky
91 Illinois
92 SMU
93 Virginia
94 Purdue
95 Oregon St.
96 Bowling Green
97 Tulane
98 San Jose St.
99 Wyoming
100 UL-Lafayette
101 Idaho
102 Central Florida
103 Arkansas St.
104 South Alabama
105 Texas St.
106 New Mexico
107 Northern Illinois
108 Fresno St.
109 Iowa St.
110 Florida Atlantic
111 UNLV
112 Old Dominion
113 UTEP
114 Massachusetts
115 Georgia St.
116 Kansas
117 Rice
118 UTSA
119 Eastern Michigan
120 UL-Monroe
121 New Mexico St.
122 Hawaii
123 Kent St.
124 North Texas
125 Buffalo
126 Miami (O)
127 Florida Int’l.
128 Charlotte

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.9 106.9 110.8 109.2
Cincinnati 100.8 101.5 101.1 101.2
Temple 99.1 99.6 99.3 99.4
Connecticut 97.0 94.7 96.6 96.1
East Carolina 93.5 95.6 93.7 94.3
Central Florida 91.2 93.8 91.3 92.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 117.8 115.8 120.2 117.9
Memphis 107.2 103.1 105.5 105.3
Tulsa 98.7 101.0 99.4 99.7
Navy 99.0 98.9 98.5 98.8
SMU 91.2 90.7 93.5 91.8
Tulane 84.3 88.1 84.6 85.7
         
AAC Averages 99.2 99.2 99.5 99.3
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.9 122.3 128.1 126.1
Clemson 124.0 115.9 122.9 120.9
Florida St. 119.6 112.7 118.8 117.0
North Carolina St. 107.0 104.8 106.4 106.1
Wake Forest 102.9 101.2 102.3 102.2
Boston College 100.7 99.7 100.2 100.2
Syracuse 101.9 98.2 100.3 100.2
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 120.3 113.0 120.2 117.8
Virginia Tech 116.4 116.0 116.9 116.4
North Carolina 117.0 110.5 116.6 114.7
Pittsburgh 116.1 111.4 115.3 114.3
Georgia Tech 109.7 105.7 108.7 108.0
Duke 100.9 101.3 99.5 100.6
Virginia 101.5 99.1 101.0 100.5
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.0 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.1 117.4 120.0 119.2
Oklahoma St. 113.7 114.7 113.6 114.0
TCU 113.3 114.6 113.1 113.7
Baylor 112.3 112.4 113.3 112.7
Texas 112.2 113.7 111.3 112.4
Kansas St. 107.2 110.2 107.1 108.2
West Virginia 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
Texas Tech 105.6 103.4 103.5 104.2
Iowa St. 97.4 97.0 96.2 96.9
Kansas 85.0 92.5 82.3 86.6
         
Big 12 Averages 107.4 108.3 106.7 107.5
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 124.7 122.2 125.2 124.0
Ohio St. 123.2 122.5 124.7 123.5
Michigan St. 110.9 109.8 109.2 110.0
Penn St. 104.9 107.1 103.7 105.2
Indiana 101.2 105.1 100.5 102.3
Maryland 101.6 105.2 99.4 102.1
Rutgers 98.3 95.7 96.9 97.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 114.2 112.2 114.7 113.7
Iowa 114.3 111.3 113.8 113.1
Nebraska 113.0 109.4 113.2 111.9
Northwestern 105.7 100.7 104.0 103.5
Minnesota 103.9 102.3 103.6 103.3
Purdue 97.7 95.7 96.9 96.8
Illinois 97.7 94.4 96.7 96.3
         
Big Ten Averages 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.3
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 100.7 96.3 101.8 99.6
Middle Tennessee 93.8 95.1 94.3 94.4
Marshall 89.0 92.8 90.8 90.9
Old Dominion 86.0 89.3 86.2 87.2
Florida Atlantic 81.5 84.8 83.0 83.1
Florida International 77.2 83.9 77.8 79.6
Charlotte 70.8 77.2 72.1 73.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 94.4 94.4 95.5 94.8
Louisiana Tech 90.0 92.2 91.1 91.1
Rice 80.7 88.0 80.5 83.1
UTSA 79.0 86.5 81.6 82.4
North Texas 75.4 78.3 75.6 76.5
UTEP 71.7 76.0 73.1 73.6
         
CUSA Averages 83.9 87.3 84.9 85.4
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.5 109.2 110.9 110.9
BYU 109.9 103.8 109.5 107.7
Army 92.6 101.0 95.6 96.4
Massachusetts 81.1 88.6 82.8 84.2
         
Independents Averages 99.0 100.7 99.7 99.8
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.2 99.8 92.2 94.4
Akron 86.7 92.7 88.2 89.2
Miami (O) 84.7 85.4 86.2 85.4
Bowling Green 85.7 84.5 85.1 85.1
Kent St. 84.0 85.3 84.2 84.5
Buffalo 79.0 87.6 80.5 82.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 107.1 105.3 108.9 107.1
Toledo 104.4 103.0 105.4 104.3
Central Michigan 101.6 103.7 102.6 102.6
Northern Illinois 91.7 92.9 92.4 92.3
Ball St. 86.1 88.2 87.1 87.1
Eastern Michigan 80.5 85.1 81.4 82.3
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 108.8 109.6 110.6 109.7
Air Force 101.1 101.7 101.6 101.5
Utah St. 93.7 96.3 93.3 94.4
New Mexico 92.3 95.3 93.1 93.6
Colorado St. 87.2 89.5 87.7 88.1
Wyoming 83.3 83.6 83.5 83.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 106.0 103.1 108.4 105.9
Nevada 91.5 94.6 92.5 92.9
UNLV 87.7 92.3 87.7 89.2
San Jose St. 87.4 87.5 87.6 87.5
Fresno St. 81.5 85.6 81.1 82.7
Hawaii 77.2 75.9 76.3 76.5
         
MWC Averages 91.5 93.0 91.9 92.1
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.7 114.7 120.6 119.0
Washington 119.4 111.9 119.3 116.9
Oregon 111.3 109.8 110.5 110.5
Washington St. 107.7 104.9 107.6 106.8
California 104.8 97.1 102.5 101.5
Oregon St. 97.6 93.4 95.5 95.5
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 113.5 108.9 110.8 111.1
UCLA 111.4 110.2 111.0 110.9
Colorado 111.6 107.3 112.1 110.4
Utah 111.3 105.8 109.2 108.8
Arizona St. 108.2 108.1 107.0 107.8
Arizona 105.6 103.0 104.6 104.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.3 106.3 109.2 108.6
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 121.9 118.0 121.8 120.6
Florida 112.8 115.7 111.1 113.2
Georgia 108.2 108.1 107.4 107.9
Missouri 104.4 103.6 104.2 104.1
Vanderbilt 102.6 98.4 101.2 100.8
South Carolina 99.9 99.2 99.2 99.5
Kentucky 95.9 98.2 94.8 96.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.2 124.1 131.0 128.8
LSU 122.4 117.0 121.4 120.3
Texas A&M 116.5 115.0 116.4 116.0
Auburn 115.5 113.7 115.4 114.9
Ole Miss 116.4 110.1 115.9 114.1
Mississippi St. 111.8 109.6 110.9 110.8
Arkansas 112.3 107.9 109.7 110.0
         
SEC Averages 112.3 109.9 111.5 111.2
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 97.7 96.8 99.7 98.1
Troy 91.4 96.2 93.3 93.7
Georgia Southern 91.3 91.1 93.6 92.0
Arkansas St. 87.5 89.5 89.0 88.7
Georgia St. 81.6 86.7 83.3 83.9
South Alabama 79.8 87.4 81.2 82.8
UL-Lafayette 77.0 84.9 78.8 80.3
Idaho 77.8 83.4 79.2 80.1
New Mexico St. 72.9 75.7 73.7 74.1
UL-Monroe 70.2 75.3 70.8 72.1
Texas St. 69.8 71.0 70.8 70.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.5 85.3 83.0 83.3

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.3 109.9 111.5 111.2
2 ACC 111.8 108.0 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.3 106.3 109.2 108.6
4 Big 12 107.4 108.3 106.7 107.5
5 Big Ten 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.3
6 Independents 99.0 100.7 99.7 99.8
7 AAC 99.2 99.2 99.5 99.3
8 MWC 91.5 93.0 91.9 92.1
9 MAC 90.2 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 83.9 87.3 84.9 85.4
11 Sun Belt 81.5 85.3 83.0 83.3

 

This Week’s Games–September 29-October 1
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 29      
Texas Tech Kansas 23.6 13.9 24.2
Houston Connecticut 23.8 24.1 26.6
         
Friday, September 30      
BYU Toledo 9.0 4.3 7.6
Washington Stanford 0.7 0.2 1.7
         
Saturday, October 1      
Boston College Buffalo 24.2 14.6 22.2
Pittsburgh Marshall 29.1 20.6 26.5
Ole Miss Memphis 11.2 9.0 12.4
Massachusetts Tulane -0.2 3.5 1.2
Penn St. Minnesota 4.0 7.8 3.1
Iowa Northwestern 11.6 13.6 12.8
Ohio St. Rutgers 27.9 29.8 30.8
West Virginia Kansas St. 3.4 -0.8 2.9
Duke Virginia 2.4 5.2 1.5
Syracuse Notre Dame -7.6 -8.0 -7.6
Cincinnati South Florida -6.1 -2.4 -6.7
Temple SMU 10.9 11.9 8.8
Charlotte Old Dominion -13.2 -10.1 -12.1
North Texas Middle Tennessee -15.4 -13.8 -15.7
Louisiana Tech UTEP 21.3 19.2 21.0
Florida Int’l Florida Atlantic -12.3 1.1 -3.2
Central Michigan Western Michigan -3.5 0.4 -4.3
Ball St. Northern Illinois -3.1 -1.8 -2.8
Bowling Green Eastern Michigan 7.7 1.9 6.2
Miami (O) Ohio -4.5 -12.4 -4.0
East Carolina Central Florida 5.3 4.8 5.4
Kent St. Akron -0.7 -5.4 -2.0
Maryland Purdue 6.9 12.5 5.5
Georgia Tech Miami (Fla) -7.6 -4.3 -8.5
Nebraska Illinois 18.3 18.0 19.5
Michigan Wisconsin 13.5 13.0 13.5
Clemson Louisville -0.9 -3.4 -2.2
Florida St. North Carolina 5.6 5.2 5.2
Auburn UL-Monroe 48.3 41.4 47.6
Air Force Navy 5.1 5.8 6.1
Southern Miss. Rice 16.7 9.4 18.3
Colorado St. Wyoming 5.9 7.9 6.2
Alabama Kentucky 38.3 39.9 39.2
Georgia Tennessee -10.7 -6.9 -11.4
Appalachian St. Georgia St. 19.1 13.1 19.4
Vanderbilt Florida -7.7 -14.8 -7.4
California Utah -3.5 -5.7 -3.7
Oklahoma St. Texas 4.5 4.0 5.3
Colorado Oregon St. 17.0 16.9 19.6
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 6.6 6.1 6.6
South Carolina Texas A&M -13.6 -12.8 -14.2
UCLA Arizona 8.8 10.2 9.4
USC Arizona St. 8.3 3.8 6.8
Iowa St. Baylor -11.9 -12.4 -14.1
Indiana Michigan St. -6.7 -1.7 -5.7
TCU Oklahoma -3.8 0.2 -3.9
LSU Missouri 21.0 16.4 20.2
South Alabama San Diego St. -22.7 -12.2 -23.7
New Mexico St. UL-Lafayette -1.6 -6.7 -2.6
Idaho Troy -10.6 -9.8 -11.1
New Mexico San Jose St. 7.9 10.8 8.5
Boise St. Utah St. 18.1 16.3 20.3
Washington St. Oregon -0.6 -1.9 0.1
UNLV Fresno St. 9.2 9.7 9.6
Hawaii Nevada -10.3 -14.7 -12.2

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS vs. FCS Week 5  
Home Visitor PiRate
Arkansas Alcorn St. 50
Western Kentucky Houston Baptist 45
Texas St. Incarnate Word 15

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Old Dominion
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC USC vs. Boise St.
Cure AAC SBC [Akron] vs. UL-Lafayette
Camellia MAC SBC Ball St. vs. Ga. Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC W. Kentucky vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Cincinnati vs. W. Michigan
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Sou. Miss.
Poinsettia MWC BYU Air Force vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC C. Michigan vs. Colorado St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Tulsa vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. Texas Tech
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio vs. Appy St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Marshall vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Connecticut vs. Notre Dame
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC/ND [Army] vs. Georgia Tech
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC N. C. State vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Colorado
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas vs. Oregon
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Wake Forest vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Florida St. vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Arizona St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Arkansas
Birmingham AAC SEC South Florida vs. [Duke]
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Utah
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. LSU
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 N. Carolina vs. UCLA
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC La. Tech vs. Utah St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Penn St. vs. [California]
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Baylor
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Miami (Fla.) vs. Auburn
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Houston vs. Texas A&M
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Stanford
Sugar Big 12 SEC Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.

 

 

 

 

 

September 12, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For September 15-17, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:03 pm

The Best Schedule in a September Saturday in Years

This will be a week for college football fanatics to arrange their schedules to be glued to your viewing devices.  Forget mowing that lawn; the groceries can be shopped for Friday after work.  Tell your spouses that their honey-do list for this Saturday must be postponed, and let them know that the buckaroos at the PiRate Ratings have ordered you to do research this week.

This week’s schedule of games might even be better on the whole than rivalry weeks at the end of the season.  Let’s look at some of the great offerings, and by great, we don’t necessarily mean top 10 teams facing off against each other.  There are even great games among the bottom 30 teams.

Actually, the festivities commence Thursday night, when Houston visits Cincinnati.  This is somewhat of a trap game for the Cougars.  It is their first road game, and it comes against a solid but not spectacular conference foe.  Cincinnati began the season with a lackluster victory over a cream puff, and then won at Purdue last week.  The Bearcats are just talented enough to play their best game of the season and upset Houston.  It should be a great game with a good deal of scoring.

 

On Friday night, in what looks like a possible blowout, Rice hosts Baylor.  At one time, when both teams were Southwest Conference members, this was a huge rivalry game, not unlike Texas and Arkansas.  Baylor has won the last seven times these teams have faced off, with the last Owl win coming in the old SWC days in 1992.  Baylor put up 70 points on Rice last year in Waco, and even thought the Bears are several touchdowns stronger, this game might be interesting for awhile.

 

Now to Saturday, when the fun continues in bunches.

12 Noon Eastern Time

ABC: Florida State at Louisville

Don’t be surprised if the home team Cardinals pull the upset here.  Coach Bobby Petrino has built an offense at UL that could end the season averaging north of 50 points per game.  The defense is not Top 5 tough like other teams, but we are not sure that Florida State’s defense is ready to win it a championship either.  In a shootout, the better gunman usually wins, and Louisville has the better sharpshooter.  This one could be a 45-41 affair, and it is a 50-50 game in our opinion.  The PiRate Ratings are 100% in agreement with the winner.  See below.

Big Ten Network: Temple at Penn State

Coach James Franklin has felt that seat start to warm up in not so Happy Valley.  Losing to rival Pitt is not great, but losing for a second season to Temple could add some gas to that flame under the seat.  Temple imploded against Army, and then the Owls could not stop the option.  They righted the ship last week, and Penn State better play mistake-free ball and not give TU any gift points.

12:30 PM

ACC Network: Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech

Why is this game so important?  Both teams need this game to stay in the bowl chase this early in the season.  Georgia Tech pulled out a last-second win against Boston College in Dublin, Ireland, in week one.  The Yellow Jackets looked much better this past weekend, but they only played FCS Mercer.  This week, they face a coach that earned his job by stopping the read option, and Coach Derek Mason of Vanderbilt probably knows how to stop the spread option like his Stanford defenses did against Marcus Mariota’s Oregon offense.

The problem is that Vanderbilt’s offense is as weak as Boston College’s offense, and the Commodores may have trouble reaching 14 points in this game.  A 17-14 game would not be a shocker, although we believe that both teams will improve on the attack side after two so-so performances.  We believe the game could be won by less than a touchdown, with Tech having a 60% chance and Vanderbilt a 40% chance of winning.

3:30 PM

Big  Ten Network: Colorado at Michigan

Could it be that Coach Mike MacIntyre has turned the Buffalo program around?  After blowing out rival Colorado State at Invesco Field in week one, CU toyed with Idaho State in week two.  Sure, these are not quality opponents, but in recent years, CU might have gone 1-1 against these teams.

Playing at the Big House against a tough group of Wolverines is probably too much for the Buffs to take on, but it could be a very interesting game if CU does not turn the ball over.

 

WatchESPN App: South Florida at Syracuse

This will be an interesting contest with a team in Syracuse that might throw 50-60 passes and run off 100 scrimmage plays in a game before the season ends, and a South Florida team that plays the Stanford-Michigan smashmouth offense.  USF might be the one team that can derail Houston if the two meet in the AAC Championship Game, and the Bulls just might be a dark horse contender for the New Year’s 6 Bowl.  However, Coach Dino Babers has the ‘Cuse playing well above their level of 2015, and The Orangemen could just as easily end USF’s hopes for playing on January 2.

 

ABC: Oregon at Nebraska

Call this game a playoff eliminator.  The loser can win out and still miss the playoffs, while the winner stays alive with the hope that a 13-0 season will get them to Atlanta or Glendale, AZ.  Coach Mike Riley certainly knows Oregon well, having coached at Oregon State so long, but then Mark Helfrich knows a lot about what Riley’s teams do.  So, it should come down to which team executes its game plan better.  The Huskers can be an extra touchdown better in Lincoln than on a neutral field, and Oregon has not been a giant killer on the road in recent years.

 

CBS Sports Network: San Diego State at Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois is off to its worst start in years at 0-2, while SDSU is 2-0.  Why would we call this a game worth watching?  First, NIU’s first two games were road games, and the Huskies have a 31-2 home record in the last six years.  They won’t bend or break at Huskie Stadium.

Rocky Long may have the best team he’s ever coached in his career this season.  San Diego State has a decent chance of running the table in the regular season for the first time since 1969, when Dennis Shaw ran the Air Coryell offense to perfection.  The Aztecs have a couple of roadblock road games with trips to Dekalb this week and then to South Alabama in two weeks.  If they can get through these games unscathed, then you can add another prime contender with Houston, South Florida, Boise State, and maybe another MAC team for the NY6 Bowl bid.

 

CBS: Alabama at Ole Miss

Ole Miss is the one team that doesn’t back down to the Crimson Tide.  The Rebels have beaten ‘Bama in back-to-back years.  When has a team beaten Alabama three years in a row, when the Tide was not going through a rough patch where they did not stay in the Top 10?  It’s never been done when Alabama finished in the Top 10 all three seasons.  The closest was the 1967-68-69 seasons when Tennessee beat the Tide, but in 1969, Alabama had declined and would finish 6-5.

Ole Miss blew an excellent opportunity to make this a game between two Top 10 teams, when turnovers cost them a big lead against Florida State.  We believe the Rebels can play a mistake-free game this week and still lose by up to three touchdowns.  If a rebuilding reloading Tide team can go into Oxford and win big, we could be looking at another dynasty in Tuscaloosa like the Crimson fans saw in the early 1960’s and most of the 1970’s.

7:00 PM

ESPN: Texas A&M at Auburn

This one can be called the hot seat avoidance game.  The losing coach is going to begin to be in a bit of trouble.  How do we rate Auburn’s close loss to Clemson at Jordan-Hare Stadium, after Troy went to CU and lost by the same amount of points?  Auburn handled Arkansas State with ease, but ASU lost at home to Toledo in week one.  This becomes a put up or shut up game for War Eagle Nation.

Texas A&M has a quality win over UCLA, plus a no extra knowledge learned win over a very weak Prairie View team.  This is the Aggies’ first road game, and it comes in a tough place to win, but they won by a field goal the last time they came here.  We expect a hard-fought, close game.

 

ESPN2: Mississippi State at LSU

The loser will be 0-1 in the SEC and 1-2 overall, and they can look forward to hoping for an Outback Bowl bid at the max.  If the winner has maroon jerseys, then there will be less smiles in the LSU coaching office come Sunday Morning.  Les Miles is on the hottest of hot seats at the present time, and a home loss to a team that lost to South Alabama might be enough to make his dismissal inevitable.

Then, there is the health of star back Leonard Fournette, who missed the Jacksonville State game Saturday night.  Fournette is expected back in practice tomorrow, but he still suffers from the effects of the ankle injury.  And, there is the little matter of who will start at quarterback for the Tigers.  Former Purdue starter Danny Etling started 6 of 8 for 100 yards after replacing ineffective Brandon Harris in the second quarter.  However, he was 0 of 6 in the second half.

 

ESPN3: Navy at Tulane

How in the world could we select this game as one that could be a must watch affair?  Okay, first we did say this was a week for football fanatics, so give us a tad bit of slack here.  This actually should be a very interesting and fun game to watch, so consider giving it a few minutes time early in the evening.

Tulane’s first-year coach Willie Fritz came from Georgia Southern.  This Green Wave squad was not expected to do much in year one, as Fritz began the process of turning a former Pro-style offense into his unique form of multiple option offense, similar but different from the Navy/Georgia Tech style of spread option or inverted wishbone.  In week one, TU went to Wake Forest and held their own in a defensive struggle.  The Green Wave almost pulled off the upset, and after Wake knocked off Duke last week, this loss in Winston-Salem looks better than it did on opening night.  TU then handled Southern with ease, this time doing it with a breakout true freshman quarterback in Johnathan Brantley, who ran the option like a seasoned veteran.

Besides having two option teams going at each other, this is an American Athletic Conference game and an intra-division one to boot.  It should be a fun retro match that resembles the Oklahoma-Texas games of the early 1970s.

 

7:30 PM

NBC: Michigan State at Notre Dame

Neither team has looked as good as expected to this point, although Michigan State has only played one game, and the Spartans have had an extra week to prepare.  You know the old adage, that a team improves the most between its first and second game, and having two weeks to improve should make Sparty a live road ‘dog.

If you are around 60 years of age or older, you know how great this rivalry has been.  You saw the 1966 game that ended in a 10-10 tie, where both teams finished the season at 9-0-1.  Expect the score to pass 20 total points sometime in the second quarter.

Fox Sports: Ohio State at Oklahoma

Now this is how top teams should schedule!  If there were automatic NCAA Playoff bids to each of the Power 5 Conference Champions with three at-large bids to be awarded, then you would see more games like this instead of Big U vs. Northwest Southeastern Tech.

An Oklahoma loss means the Sooners can only expect a Sugar Bowl bid if they win the Big 12 Conference.  An Ohio State win in Norman could be enough to move the Buckeyes up to Number One in the nation, even if Alabama wins at Ole Miss.  Ohio State has started its first two games slowly, and a repeat at Memorial Stadium could be impossible to rally to victory if they get down by double-digits.

The key in this one is how much Oklahoma’s pass defense has improved since week one.  If J. T. Barrett can exploit the OU secondary for a deep pass for a touchdown, the Buckeyes’ running game might be able to get untracked and put up 250 yards on the Sooners.

We expect a game with more than 70 points scored, and wouldn’t this be an excellent night for a handful of overtimes?

8:00 PM

ABC: USC at Stanford

USC faces two separate extra troubles this week.  First, the home Cardinal had an extra week to prepare after besting a decent Kansas State team in week one.  Second, Stanford knows what Alabama did to the Trojans on a neutral field.  They know that to be given serious credibility, they cannot beat USC by a field goal or touchdown and get it.  They have to win this one by double digits to get any respect.

USC is not chopped liver.  The Trojans have played in the Rose Bowl in a season in which the national champ embarrassed them.  Look back at 1966, when USC lost to Notre Dame 51-0, yet made it to the Rose Bowl.

If truth be told, the Trojans are not 46 points weaker than Alabama.  If they played again, they might only lose by 24-28 points.  Stanford better be on guard, because the Trojans seek the same respect that Stanford believes they must earn.  Expect a good game on the Farm Saturday night.

10:30 PM

ESPN: Texas at California

This one is all about the Longhorns venturing out of the Lone Star State.  Cal is rebuilding and will be lucky to win five games this year, while Texas is trying to return to greatness.  The Longhorns have holes in their defense, and Cal has an offense capable of scoring a lot of points.  The key is how well the Texas offense will fare on foreign soil, even against a very porous defense.  If you wake up Sunday morning and see that Coach Charlie Strong’s team hung half a hundred on the Bears, then UT could easily be 4-0 when the Red River Shootout takes place in Dallas.  A win there, and it would be quite possible to see a path to 12-0 for the ‘Horns.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.9 124.3 131.9 129.4
2 Tennessee 124.8 120.1 124.8 123.2
3 LSU 124.6 118.7 123.7 122.3
4 Oklahoma 122.7 119.5 122.5 121.6
5 Louisville 123.4 117.2 123.6 121.4
6 Michigan 121.6 119.7 122.2 121.2
7 Ohio St. 120.1 119.9 121.7 120.6
8 Florida St. 122.9 115.6 121.8 120.1
9 Clemson 121.9 113.6 120.4 118.6
10 Washington 121.1 113.3 121.2 118.5
11 Stanford 120.5 113.1 119.4 117.7
12 Oklahoma St. 114.9 116.4 114.7 115.3
13 Auburn 115.7 113.9 115.8 115.1
14 North Carolina 117.1 110.4 116.8 114.8
15 Iowa 115.9 112.8 115.6 114.8
16 Notre Dame 116.4 112.4 115.3 114.7
17 Texas 113.7 116.7 113.7 114.7
18 Miami 117.5 109.5 116.8 114.6
19 Pittsburgh 116.3 111.3 115.4 114.3
20 Houston 113.9 111.8 115.9 113.9
21 Florida 112.9 116.6 111.1 113.5
22 Wisconsin 113.9 111.5 114.7 113.4
23 Mississippi St. 114.1 111.6 113.3 113.0
24 USC 115.2 111.0 112.5 112.9
25 TCU 111.7 113.6 111.5 112.3
26 Oregon 112.8 111.7 111.8 112.1
27 Texas A&M 112.4 111.7 112.2 112.1
28 Georgia 111.3 111.4 111.2 111.3
29 Michigan St. 111.9 111.2 109.9 111.0
30 Virginia Tech 111.0 110.6 111.3 111.0
31 Arkansas 113.1 108.2 110.4 110.6
32 UCLA 110.9 110.5 110.4 110.6
33 Baylor 110.3 110.0 111.4 110.6
34 Ole Miss 113.1 106.7 111.7 110.5
35 Nebraska 111.5 107.9 111.8 110.4
36 South Florida 110.1 107.6 111.5 109.7
37 Arizona St. 109.3 109.6 108.3 109.1
38 Boise St. 107.7 109.1 110.0 108.9
39 Colorado 110.3 105.6 110.8 108.9
40 BYU 110.8 103.5 110.3 108.2
41 Utah 111.0 104.9 108.6 108.2
42 Penn St. 107.6 109.5 106.0 107.7
43 Georgia Tech 108.2 104.5 107.6 106.8
44 West Virginia 107.0 106.4 106.6 106.7
45 North Carolina St. 106.7 104.2 106.0 105.6
46 Washington St. 106.5 103.4 106.3 105.4
47 San Diego St. 105.2 101.9 107.6 104.9
48 Kansas St. 103.9 107.2 103.5 104.9
49 Texas Tech 105.8 103.4 103.6 104.3
50 Western Michigan 104.2 102.4 106.1 104.2
51 Minnesota 104.9 102.9 104.6 104.1
52 Vanderbilt 105.8 101.5 104.3 103.9
53 Northwestern 106.2 100.7 104.6 103.8
54 Boston College 104.3 103.3 103.8 103.8
55 Cincinnati 103.1 103.9 104.0 103.7
56 Central Michigan 102.2 105.0 103.4 103.5
57 Missouri 103.8 103.0 103.6 103.5
58 Arizona 104.6 102.2 103.6 103.5
59 Indiana 101.6 106.1 101.2 103.0
60 Maryland 102.4 106.0 100.2 102.9
61 Toledo 103.0 101.4 103.9 102.8
62 Air Force 100.6 101.0 101.1 100.9
63 Syracuse 102.9 99.0 100.5 100.8
64 Wake Forest 101.7 99.4 100.8 100.7
65 South Carolina 101.1 100.0 100.6 100.6
66 Tulsa 99.5 101.8 100.2 100.5
67 Appalachian St. 99.8 99.2 102.5 100.5
68 Western Kentucky 101.4 96.6 102.8 100.3
69 Memphis 102.3 97.4 100.4 100.1
70 Temple 99.5 99.1 100.2 99.6
71 Virginia 100.7 97.6 100.0 99.4
72 California 103.8 93.9 100.6 99.4
73 Duke 99.2 100.3 97.5 99.0
74 Navy 99.0 98.7 98.5 98.8
75 Illinois 99.8 96.3 98.7 98.3
76 Rutgers 98.2 95.2 96.3 96.6
77 Connecticut 97.2 95.1 97.4 96.6
78 Purdue 97.6 95.2 96.6 96.5
79 Oregon St. 98.3 93.5 95.7 95.8
80 East Carolina 94.9 97.1 95.3 95.8
81 Kentucky 95.4 97.7 93.7 95.6
82 Southern Mississippi 95.2 94.5 96.2 95.3
83 Marshall 93.2 97.6 95.0 95.3
84 Northern Illinois 94.0 95.6 94.7 94.8
85 Georgia Southern 93.8 93.5 96.3 94.6
86 Iowa St. 95.2 94.6 93.8 94.5
87 Utah St. 93.3 96.3 92.6 94.1
88 New Mexico 92.0 95.5 93.1 93.6
89 Middle Tennessee 92.2 94.1 92.5 92.9
90 Army 88.7 96.9 92.0 92.5
91 Nevada 91.1 94.1 92.1 92.5
92 Ohio 89.2 97.8 90.2 92.4
93 SMU 92.5 91.7 91.8 92.0
94 UNLV 90.5 94.8 90.6 92.0
95 Bowling Green 92.0 90.2 91.6 91.3
96 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.4 91.4 90.8
97 Louisiana Tech 89.5 91.9 90.7 90.7
98 San Jose St. 89.6 90.0 90.1 89.9
99 Troy 86.9 92.5 88.8 89.4
100 Kansas 86.4 94.7 83.9 88.4
101 Central Florida 87.2 89.6 87.2 88.0
102 Old Dominion 85.6 88.8 86.0 86.8
103 Colorado St. 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
104 Florida Atlantic 85.0 88.1 86.9 86.7
105 Tulane 85.3 88.6 85.5 86.5
106 Ball St. 85.5 87.5 86.4 86.5
107 Akron 83.2 89.6 84.6 85.8
108 Rice 81.9 90.1 81.9 84.6
109 Kent St. 83.9 85.6 84.1 84.6
110 Wyoming 83.7 83.4 83.9 83.7
111 Miami (O) 83.0 84.2 83.9 83.7
112 South Alabama 80.5 87.9 81.9 83.4
113 Florida International 80.6 87.4 81.4 83.1
114 Fresno St. 81.6 85.9 81.3 82.9
115 Massachusetts 79.1 87.2 80.5 82.3
116 Buffalo 78.3 87.6 79.7 81.9
117 UTSA 78.3 86.5 80.6 81.8
118 Georgia St. 78.7 84.1 80.2 81.0
119 Eastern Michigan 78.2 83.4 79.1 80.2
120 Idaho 77.6 83.7 79.0 80.1
121 UL-Lafayette 75.3 84.1 77.2 78.9
122 UTEP 76.3 80.7 77.8 78.3
123 New Mexico St. 74.9 77.8 76.1 76.3
124 Hawaii 76.8 75.6 75.7 76.0
125 North Texas 74.8 77.2 74.8 75.6
126 Charlotte 72.2 79.4 73.3 75.0
127 Texas St. 72.1 73.2 73.3 72.9
128 UL-Monroe 67.6 73.0 68.0 69.5

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 110.1 107.6 111.5 109.7
Cincinnati 103.1 103.9 104.0 103.7
Temple 99.5 99.1 100.2 99.6
Connecticut 97.2 95.1 97.4 96.6
East Carolina 94.9 97.1 95.3 95.8
Central Florida 87.2 89.6 87.2 88.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 113.9 111.8 115.9 113.9
Tulsa 99.5 101.8 100.2 100.5
Memphis 102.3 97.4 100.4 100.1
Navy 99.0 98.7 98.5 98.8
SMU 92.5 91.7 91.8 92.0
Tulane 85.3 88.6 85.5 86.5
         
AAC Averages 98.7 98.6 99.0 98.8
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 123.4 117.2 123.6 121.4
Florida St. 122.9 115.6 121.8 120.1
Clemson 121.9 113.6 120.4 118.6
North Carolina St. 106.7 104.2 106.0 105.6
Boston College 104.3 103.3 103.8 103.8
Syracuse 102.9 99.0 100.5 100.8
Wake Forest 101.7 99.4 100.8 100.7
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 117.1 110.4 116.8 114.8
Miami 117.5 109.5 116.8 114.6
Pittsburgh 116.3 111.3 115.4 114.3
Virginia Tech 111.0 110.6 111.3 111.0
Georgia Tech 108.2 104.5 107.6 106.8
Virginia 100.7 97.6 100.0 99.4
Duke 99.2 100.3 97.5 99.0
         
ACC Averages 111.0 106.9 110.2 109.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 122.7 119.5 122.5 121.6
Oklahoma St. 114.9 116.4 114.7 115.3
Texas 113.7 116.7 113.7 114.7
TCU 111.7 113.6 111.5 112.3
Baylor 110.3 110.0 111.4 110.6
West Virginia 107.0 106.4 106.6 106.7
Kansas St. 103.9 107.2 103.5 104.9
Texas Tech 105.8 103.4 103.6 104.3
Iowa St. 95.2 94.6 93.8 94.5
Kansas 86.4 94.7 83.9 88.4
         
Big 12 Averages 107.2 108.3 106.5 107.3
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 121.6 119.7 122.2 121.2
Ohio St. 120.1 119.9 121.7 120.6
Michigan St. 111.9 111.2 109.9 111.0
Penn St. 107.6 109.5 106.0 107.7
Indiana 101.6 106.1 101.2 103.0
Maryland 102.4 106.0 100.2 102.9
Rutgers 98.2 95.2 96.3 96.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 115.9 112.8 115.6 114.8
Wisconsin 113.9 111.5 114.7 113.4
Nebraska 111.5 107.9 111.8 110.4
Minnesota 104.9 102.9 104.6 104.1
Northwestern 106.2 100.7 104.6 103.8
Illinois 99.8 96.3 98.7 98.3
Purdue 97.6 95.2 96.6 96.5
         
Big Ten Averages 108.1 106.8 107.4 107.4
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 101.4 96.6 102.8 100.3
Marshall 93.2 97.6 95.0 95.3
Middle Tennessee 92.2 94.1 92.5 92.9
Old Dominion 85.6 88.8 86.0 86.8
Florida Atlantic 85.0 88.1 86.9 86.7
Florida International 80.6 87.4 81.4 83.1
Charlotte 72.2 79.4 73.3 75.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 95.2 94.5 96.2 95.3
Louisiana Tech 89.5 91.9 90.7 90.7
Rice 81.9 90.1 81.9 84.6
UTSA 78.3 86.5 80.6 81.8
UTEP 76.3 80.7 77.8 78.3
North Texas 74.8 77.2 74.8 75.6
         
CUSA Averages 85.1 88.7 86.2 86.7
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 116.4 112.4 115.3 114.7
BYU 110.8 103.5 110.3 108.2
Army 88.7 96.9 92.0 92.5
Massachusetts 79.1 87.2 80.5 82.3
         
Independents Averages 98.8 100.0 99.5 99.4
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 89.2 97.8 90.2 92.4
Bowling Green 92.0 90.2 91.6 91.3
Akron 83.2 89.6 84.6 85.8
Kent St. 83.9 85.6 84.1 84.6
Miami (O) 83.0 84.2 83.9 83.7
Buffalo 78.3 87.6 79.7 81.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 104.2 102.4 106.1 104.2
Central Michigan 102.2 105.0 103.4 103.5
Toledo 103.0 101.4 103.9 102.8
Northern Illinois 94.0 95.6 94.7 94.8
Ball St. 85.5 87.5 86.4 86.5
Eastern Michigan 78.2 83.4 79.1 80.2
         
MAC Averages 89.7 92.5 90.6 91.0
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 107.7 109.1 110.0 108.9
Air Force 100.6 101.0 101.1 100.9
Utah St. 93.3 96.3 92.6 94.1
New Mexico 92.0 95.5 93.1 93.6
Colorado St. 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
Wyoming 83.7 83.4 83.9 83.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 105.2 101.9 107.6 104.9
Nevada 91.1 94.1 92.1 92.5
UNLV 90.5 94.8 90.6 92.0
San Jose St. 89.6 90.0 90.1 89.9
Fresno St. 81.6 85.9 81.3 82.9
Hawaii 76.8 75.6 75.7 76.0
         
MWC Averages 91.5 93.0 92.0 92.2
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 121.1 113.3 121.2 118.5
Stanford 120.5 113.1 119.4 117.7
Oregon 112.8 111.7 111.8 112.1
Washington St. 106.5 103.4 106.3 105.4
California 103.8 93.9 100.6 99.4
Oregon St. 98.3 93.5 95.7 95.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 115.2 111.0 112.5 112.9
UCLA 110.9 110.5 110.4 110.6
Arizona St. 109.3 109.6 108.3 109.1
Colorado 110.3 105.6 110.8 108.9
Utah 111.0 104.9 108.6 108.2
Arizona 104.6 102.2 103.6 103.5
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.1 109.1 108.5
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 124.8 120.1 124.8 123.2
Florida 112.9 116.6 111.1 113.5
Georgia 111.3 111.4 111.2 111.3
Vanderbilt 105.8 101.5 104.3 103.9
Missouri 103.8 103.0 103.6 103.5
South Carolina 101.1 100.0 100.6 100.6
Kentucky 95.4 97.7 93.7 95.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.9 124.3 131.9 129.4
LSU 124.6 118.7 123.7 122.3
Auburn 115.7 113.9 115.8 115.1
Mississippi St. 114.1 111.6 113.3 113.0
Texas A&M 112.4 111.7 112.2 112.1
Arkansas 113.1 108.2 110.4 110.6
Ole Miss 113.1 106.7 111.7 110.5
         
SEC Averages 112.9 110.4 112.0 111.8
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.8 99.2 102.5 100.5
Georgia Southern 93.8 93.5 96.3 94.6
Arkansas St. 89.6 91.4 91.4 90.8
Troy 86.9 92.5 88.8 89.4
South Alabama 80.5 87.9 81.9 83.4
Georgia St. 78.7 84.1 80.2 81.0
Idaho 77.6 83.7 79.0 80.1
UL-Lafayette 75.3 84.1 77.2 78.9
New Mexico St. 74.9 77.8 76.1 76.3
Texas St. 72.1 73.2 73.3 72.9
UL-Monroe 67.6 73.0 68.0 69.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.5 85.5 83.2 83.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.9 110.4 112.0 111.8
2 ACC 111.0 106.9 110.2 109.4
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.1 109.1 108.5
4 Big Ten 108.1 106.8 107.4 107.4
5 Big 12 107.2 108.3 106.5 107.3
6 Independents 98.8 100.0 99.5 99.4
7 AAC 98.7 98.6 99.0 98.8
8 MWC 91.5 93.0 92.0 92.2
9 MAC 89.7 92.5 90.6 91.0
10 CUSA 85.1 88.7 86.2 86.7
11 Sun Belt 81.5 85.5 83.2 83.4

 

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Florida St.
4 Clemson
5 Tennessee
6 Michigan
7 Wisconsin
8 Washington
9 Houston
10 Stanford
11 Arkansas
12 Louisville
13 Texas A&M
14 Oklahoma
15 Iowa
16 Texas
17 Baylor
18 LSU
19 Utah
20 Georgia
21 Florida
22 Michigan St.
23 Ole Miss
24 Oregon
25 Nebraska
26 Notre Dame
27 Pittsburgh
28 Miami (Fla.)
29 Arizona St.
30 North Carolina
31 USC
32 Boise St.
33 West Virginia
34 TCU
35 Auburn
36 San Diego St.
37 UCLA
38 Toledo
39 Western Michigan
40 Navy
41 BYU
42 South Florida
43 Colorado
44 Georgia Tech
45 Western Kentucky
46 Oklahoma St.
47 Appalachian St.
48 Georgia Southern
49 Minnesota
50 Cincinnati
51 Mississippi St.
52 Virginia Tech
53 California
54 Penn St.
55 Texas Tech
56 Central Michigan
57 Indiana
58 East Carolina
59 Southern Miss.
60 Memphis
61 Wake Forest
62 Marshall
63 Air Force
64 North Carolina St.
65 Maryland
66 Army
67 Missouri
68 Kansas St.
69 South Carolina
70 Tulsa
71 Washington St.
72 Arizona
73 Louisiana Tech
74 Temple
75 Duke
76 Northwestern
77 Vanderbilt
78 Boston College
79 Illinois
80 South Alabama
81 Bowling Green
82 Syracuse
83 Utah St.
84 Akron
85 Ohio
86 Rutgers
87 Colorado St.
88 Arkansas St.
89 Troy
90 Connecticut
91 MTSU
92 Kentucky
93 Texas St.
94 Purdue
95 SMU
96 Nevada
97 San Jose St.
98 UTEP
99 Oregon St.
100 Wyoming
101 Idaho
102 Virginia
103 Ball St.
104 Iowa St.
105 Central Florida
106 Northern Illinois
107 Fresno St.
108 New Mexico
109 Florida Atlantic
110 UNLV
111 UL-Lafayette
112 Tulane
113 New Mexico St.
114 Kansas
115 Old Dominion
116 Rice
117 Georgia St.
118 Massachusetts
119 UTSA
120 Charlotte
121 Hawaii
122 UL-Monroe
123 Florida Int’l.
124 North Texas
125 Buffalo
126 Eastern Michigan
127 Miami (O)
128 Kent St.

 

This Week’s Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 15      
Cincinnati Houston -7.8 -4.9 -8.9
         
Friday, September 16      
Rice Baylor -26.4 -17.9 -27.5
Utah St. Arkansas St. 7.2 8.4 4.7
UTSA Arizona St. -28.5 -20.6 -25.2
         
Saturday, September 17      
Appalachian St. Miami (Fla.) -14.7 -7.3 -11.3
Louisville Florida St. 3.5 4.6 4.8
Penn St. Temple 10.1 12.4 7.8
Rutgers New Mexico 9.2 2.7 5.2
Tennessee Ohio 38.6 25.3 37.6
Memphis Kansas 18.9 5.7 19.5
TCU Iowa St. 19.5 22.0 20.7
Wisconsin Georgia St. 38.2 30.4 37.5
Bowling Green Middle Tennessee 2.3 -1.4 1.6
Marshall Akron 13.0 11.0 13.4
Georgia Tech Vanderbilt 5.4 6.0 6.3
Connecticut Virginia -0.5 0.5 0.4
Washington St. Idaho 31.4 22.2 29.8
Kansas St. Florida Atlantic 21.9 22.1 19.6
Central Michigan UNLV 14.7 13.2 15.8
Toledo Fresno St. 24.4 18.5 25.6
Massachusetts Florida Int’l. 1.0 2.3 1.6
Miami (O) Western Kentucky -16.4 -10.4 -16.9
Michigan Colorado 14.3 17.1 14.4
Syracuse South Florida -4.2 -5.6 -8.0
Virginia Tech Boston College 9.7 10.3 10.5
Nebraska Oregon 1.7 -0.8 3.0
Northern Illinois San Diego St. -8.2 -3.0 -9.9
Oklahoma St. Pittsburgh 1.6 8.1 2.3
Ole Miss Alabama -15.8 -14.6 -17.2
Kentucky New Mexico St. 23.5 22.9 20.6
South Carolina East Carolina 8.7 5.4 7.8
Illinois Western Michigan -1.4 -3.1 -4.4
Charlotte Eastern Michigan -4.0 -2.0 -3.8
North Carolina St. Old Dominion 23.6 17.9 22.5
Georgia Southern UL-Monroe 28.7 23.0 30.8
Auburn Texas A&M 6.3 5.2 6.6
LSU Mississippi St. 13.5 10.1 13.4
Southern Miss. Troy 10.8 4.5 9.9
Texas Tech Louisiana Tech 19.3 14.5 15.9
UTEP Army -9.4 -13.2 -11.2
Central Florida Maryland -12.2 -13.4 -10.0
Tulane Navy -11.2 -7.6 -10.5
UL-Lafayette South Alabama -3.2 -1.8 -2.7
Florida North Texas 41.1 42.4 39.3
Notre Dame Michigan St. 7.5 4.2 8.4
Arkansas Texas St. 44.0 38.0 40.1
Missouri Georgia -4.5 -5.4 -4.6
Oklahoma Ohio St. 5.6 2.6 3.8
Northwestern Duke 9.5 2.9 9.6
Stanford USC 8.3 5.1 9.9
Nevada Buffalo 16.3 10.0 15.9
BYU UCLA 2.9 -4.0 2.9
California Texas -6.9 -19.8 -10.1
San Jose St. Utah -18.9 -12.4 -16.0
Arizona Hawaii 31.3 30.1 31.4

 

FBS versus FCS Teams–PiRate Estimated Spread

FBS vs. FCS Week 3  
Home Visitor PiRate
Clemson South Carolina St. 47
Iowa North Dakota St. 19
Tulsa N. C. A&T 25
Ball St. Eastern Kentucky 15
Kent St. Monmouth 11
North Carolina James Madison 26
Colorado St. Northern Colorado 21
Wyoming UC-Davis 11
Oregon St. Idaho St. 25
Wake Forest Delaware 23
SMU Liberty 11
Washington Portland St. 42

 

 

 

 

 

August 31, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 1-5, 2016

This just for fun weekly feature turned out to be our most widely read part of the PiRate Ratings last year, because just like a broken clock is correct twice a day, somehow our money line parlays returned 40% on investment last year. People began leaving comments at our sister site, http://www.piratings.webs.com , telling us they were using these picks to wager their hard-earned money. That disappointed us a lot, since we begged them not to do this.

This is a just for fun mathematical experiment. We have no inside information; we have no specialist in Vegas placing wagers anonymously for us like other heavy hitters. In fact, if we were to announce to any book that we would like to play our picks for real, they would bend over backwards to help us do just that. So, that should tell you not to use these picks. Just read what we have to offer. If there is some way to wager just for fun with your friends, by picking X number of teams to win outright, then maybe you can use our selections.

For those not aware of the Money Line, it is a line established to wager on who you think will win the game without having to cover a pointspread. Obviously, if Michigan plays Hawaii, you would take Michigan to win. As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friend.” In order to take Michigan to win the game outright over Hawaii, you have to give ridiculous odds to the book. To win just $100 on this proposal, you must put up $75,000! If you want to wager just $100 on Hawaii to win the game in the biggest upset in years, you would win $25,000 if it happened!

Obviously, this is an extreme outlier. Let’s look at a closer game this week. Vanderbilt hosts South Carolina tomorrow night. The current Money Line odds are listed as Vanderbilt -185 and South Carolina +165. This means that if you believe the Commodores will win, you must put up $185 to win $100 ($285, because you get your investment money back as well). If you believe South Carolina will win this game, then by wagering $100, you stand to win $165 ($265 as you will get your $100 back as well if you win) if the Gamecocks win.

A Money Line parlay allows you to combine multiple games in order to raise your total odds. The catch is that if you bet X amount of games as one parlay wager, all X teams must win. It is considered a sucker bet to play this type of exotic wager, but we are not suckers, because we bet $0 every week. We can choose and choose parlays every week, and we will not lose a penny. We hope you will not either.

Here is our plan of attack that worked rather well last year for us. We will select a host of favorites and bunch them into parlays where the odds are better than even money for us should we win the wager. For example, let’s say that you combine three favorites into one parlay wager. Team A is listed at -250. Team B is listed at -235. Team C is listed at -225. The parlay on this three-team wager would be +188, or you would put up $100 to win $188 ($288 because as you know by now, when you win, you get back your investment money as well.)

It is not easy for three teams at -250, -235, and -225 to all win in a given week. That’s the catch. It looks so easy, and there are some nice hotels in Vegas that have been built from funds donated to them by suckers that thought it looked so easy.

Okay, now that you have been warned, let’s get started with our first Money Line Parlays of the 2016 season. We are playing just two parlays this week, and by playing, we mean like it is Monopoly–it is just a fun game.

Parlay #1

This one gives us +167 odds on our $100 fantasy investment. Yep, if we win, we receive $267 from the fake book in fake Vegas.

Tulsa over San Jose St.
Wake Forest over Tulane
LSU over Wisconsin
West Virginia over Missouri

Parlay #2

This one gives us +127 odds on our $100 fantasy investment. So, if we win just one of these two parlays, it will be a profitable week.

Colorado over Colorado St.
Temple over Army
UTEP over New Mexico St.
Minnesota over Oregon St.

Okay, that’s $200 fake invested funds into two parlays. If we lose both, we are out our imaginary $200. If we win #1 and lose #2, we will have a nice profit in week one returning $267 on the $200 wagered (33.5% ROI). If we lose #1 and win #2, we will have a so-so profit in week one returning $227 on the $200 wagered (13.5% ROI). If somehow both parlays win, we will be taking a fake vacation to an imaginary mountain lodge after pulling off a return of $494 on the $200 wagered (147% ROI).

One final warning and plea–please do not wager real money on these picks. Use them for fun only. See if you can come up with your own and see for yourself how easy hard it is.

Happy football holiday weekend.

August 28, 2016

College Football Spreads for September 1-5 ,2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:32 am

After a sample taste of Bloomin’ Football Down Under, the college football season begins in earnest this week, kicking off with a host of games on Thursday night and finishing with the annual lone Monday Night Football Game during the regular college season.

 

There are a few things we failed to mention in our college conference previews this year, namely that our preseason ratings failed to produce a clear-cut dominant team or even a small group of dominant teams.  It is our opinions that this will be more of a balanced season with 20-25 teams capable of competing for their conference championships, and as many as 8-12 teams with reasonable beliefs they can earn a playoff spot.

 

There is reason for this parity.  The most recent dominant teams–Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Baylor, and even Clemson, figure to be a little less powerful than in recent years.  These teams can still win the national title, but they are not likely to go 12-0 in the regular season and outscore their opponents by an average of 40-10.

 

As a whole, the Pac-12 and Big Ten figure to be a couple points weaker this year than in recent seasons, while the Big 12 is about on par with last seasons, but with a minor changing of the guard, as we believe Texas will replace Baylor as one of the championship contenders.  The ACC appears to be on a slight rise, while the SEC remains the SEC.  While Alabama and Florida may be down a bit, LSU and Tennessee are moving up a bit, which should make the top league’s championship race one where the powers beat up on themselves and leaves every team with a league loss.

 

Because only one game involving FBS teams has been played, we will update the 128 teams after this weekend’s games.  Cal dropped a tiny bit while Hawaii rose a tiny bit, so it really does very little to the ratings, and we have already altered the Hawaii-Michigan game this weekend based on Hawaii’s result in Australia.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads.

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Alabama USC 6.8 4.7 7.0
Arizona BYU -1.4 4.3 -2.2
Arkansas Louisiana Tech 34.0 24.7 31.2
Arkansas St. Toledo -5.6 -1.2 -3.9
Auburn Clemson -9.3 0.4 -8.8
Boston College Georgia Tech 0.1 2.4 0.5
Colorado Colorado St. 18.8 11.5 18.0
Florida Massachusetts 42.5 36.3 38.9
Florida Intl. Indiana -16.1 -13.4 -13.6
Florida St. Mississippi 12.3 11.0 12.8
Georgia North Carolina -3.4 6.3 -3.5
Georgia St. Ball St. 0.6 4.0 2.6
Houston Oklahoma -13.5 -11.3 -11.2
Iowa Miami (Ohio) 36.8 31.3 35.7
Kentucky Southern Miss. 10.2 12.7 7.9
Louisiana-Lafayette Boise St. -24.6 -15.4 -24.1
Louisville Charlotte 49.1 34.2 46.9
Michigan Hawaii 45.7 45.1 47.0
Minnesota Oregon St. 10.0 12.8 12.7
Mississippi St. South Alabama 47.0 32.9 45.7
Nebraska Fresno St. 29.8 20.3 30.1
North Texas SMU -18.7 -14.5 -18.5
Northwestern Western Mich. 10.7 5.6 7.2
Ohio Texas St. 22.9 31.7 23.6
Ohio St. Bowling Green 19.6 21.8 19.2
Penn St. Kent 30.7 30.3 29.3
Stanford Kansas St. 21.2 8.3 20.9
Temple Army 19.7 9.7 18.2
Tennessee Appalachian St. 35.7 29.6 34.8
Texas Notre Dame 1.9 10.7 3.3
Texas A&M UCLA 4.2 4.2 4.7
Tulsa San Jose St. 11.7 14.2 11.5
UTEP New Mexico St. 4.3 6.5 4.4
Vanderbilt South Carolina 10.9 4.4 10.0
Wake Forest Tulane 22.6 15.6 22.0
Washington Rutges 24.4 18.2 25.8
West Va. Missouri 7.9 8.6 7.8
Western Kentucky Rice 17.1 1.7 17.4
Wisconsin LSU -17.0 -13.7 -15.8
Wyoming Northern Ill. -11.3 -12.9 -12.3

Every week, we will also reveal what we call estimated spreads for the games involving an FBS team playing an FCS team.  We say this is estimated, because it is simply a score-based formula similar to the original regular PiRate Rating of the 1970’s and 1980’s, before the advent of the Internet making data-mining so easy.  This is a raw estimate based on establishing a crude rating for the FCS team and the regular PiRate Rating for the FBS team.  We update the FBS team very marginally when they play an FCS team because of this.

 

FBS vs. FCS Week 1 Estimated
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Michigan Presbyterian 30.4
Connecticut Maine 26.2
Cincinnati UT-Martin 25.6
North Carolina St. William & Mary 28.1
Utah Southern Utah 32.3
Utah St. Weber St. 24.8
Idaho Montana St. 7.2
New Mexico South Dakota 15.2
UNLV Jackson St. 29.8
Eastern Michigan Mississippi Valley 28.5
Syracuse Colgate 26.2
Buffalo Albany 23.8
Michigan St. Furman 45.1
Baylor Northwestern St. 44.7
Nevada Cal Poly SLO 18.2
Navy Fordham 33.9
Purdue Eastern Kentucky 19.0
Maryland Howard 43.4
Virginia Tech Liberty 32.7
Pittsburgh Villanova 29.0
Air Force Abilene Christian 36.1
Virginia Richmond 18.3
Illinois Murray St. 32.8
Oklahoma St. SE Louisiana 44.1
Oregon UC-Davis 44.3
Duke UNC-Central 35.2
East Carolina Western Carolina 22.0
Florida Atlantic Southern Illinois 6.3
Georgia Southern Savannah St. 53.6
Miami (Fla) Florida A&M 49.0
Troy Austin Peay 32.5
Old Dominion Hampton 17.2
Akron VMI 28.9
South Florida Towson 31.6
Kansas Rhode Island 20.6
UL-Monroe Southern 14.9
UTSA Alabama St. 23.0
Central Florida South Carolina St. 14.8
Middle Tennessee Alabama A&M 43.0
Memphis SE Missouri 32.7
Iowa St. Northern Iowa 9.4
TCU South Dakota St. 31.2
Texas Tech Stephen F. Austin 34.6
Washington St. E. Washington 30.0
San Diego St. New Hampshire 29.9
Arizona St. Northern Arizona 28.6

Coming Wednesday–The PiRate Ratings will issue our initial JUST FOR FUN Moneyline Parlay wagers for week one of the college football season.  Last year, our moneyline parlays caught lightning in a bottle and finished with a hefty 40% return on investment, BUT that does not mean they are usable to throw away your hard earned money.  If you already know what you are doing, then maybe you can look at our selections with an expertise that will allow you to filter out our errors in judgment and find a small silver needle in the Nevada haystack.

 

There will be fewer selections since we normally include the NFL games in this weekly entry, and we do not fool with preseason games.  Beginning the following week, we expect to issue more selections.

 

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