The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 7, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Selections For: September 7-11, 2017

Recent PiRate Ratings history has shown that our money line parlay selections have been rather mediocre in the month of September. It figures, since we only select parlays that produce returns of better than 100% if they win. It can be harder earlier in the season to get a solid grasp on teams that we feel are certain to win and not just should win.
Today, we are going to include two long shot parlays that we felt compelled to select, just for the fact that they offer crazy returns, while at the same time looking quite possible.
We hope you do not wager your hard-earned money based on our advice. We know there are many of you that do not heed that recommendation. If you want to lose, you should at least lose picking games from your heart and brain. We never lose, because all we wager is the little bit of time it takes to select our parlays. In our hearts and brains, this is always a lot of fun, so we are guaranteed winners every week.

As for the opening week of the pretend wagering season, we selected just one parlay. It was looking good for awhile, until the Cal Bears put a hurtin’ on North Carolina in Chapel Hill. We lost the 5-game parlay on that one game, as the other four went our way. Alas, as with parlays that return better than 100%, this happens.

This week, we are going with five different parlays. Two of these parlays are long shots, returning hefty profits if they should happen to miraculously win. One of these two could almost guarantee another winning season if it wins, and it incredibly allows us to go with two ranked teams, one in the top 5!

Looking at the official numbers, after one week, we are at $-100 on $100 invested. That is a 100% loss on investment to date.

Here are this week’s parlay selections

 

#1 @ +118  
Must Win Must Lose
Purdue Ohio
New Mexico New Mexico St.

Purdue’s new offense has not yet hit its stride, and it may not this season.  However, the Boilermakers have some athletes getting a chance to shine after being restrained prior to Jeff Brohm’s arrival.  After giving Louisville all it could handle last week, we believe the team believes in Brohm and will come out firing on all cylinders at Ross Ade Stadium.

As for the rivalry in the Land of Enchantment, New Mexico looks like the superior team on both sides of the ball, but the Aggies are not that far behind.  In most years, the Lobos would be stronger favorites.  We believe New Mexico’s running game will eventually control what happens on the scoreboard.

 

 

#2 @ +140  
Must Win Must Lose
UTEP Rice
Miss St. La. Tech

UTEP  looked a tad bit better against Oklahoma than Rice looked against Stanford, and this game is in El Paso.  Throw in the possibility that the Owls may be on the verge of quitting on David Bailiff, while the Miners still have faith in Sean Kugler.

Mississippi State does play Louisiana Tech in Rustin this week, but the Tech home field advantage should not affect the outcome of this game.  The Bulldogs never seem to get the respect they deserve under Dan Mullen.  They are better than any team in CUSA, and they should win this game by double digits.

 

#3 @ +1010  
Must Win Must Lose
Oklahoma Ohio St.
Stanford USC

This parlay intrigued us all week, so we just had to use it.  How frequently does one get a chance to return 10 times his investment while playing two ranked teams?  We are going with the Number 5 and Number 14 team to win, in other words, not really shocking upsets if they happen.  We know the chance that both underdogs win on the road is slim, but hey, this is for more than a thousand in winnings on just $100 invested.

 

 

#4 @ +178  
Must Win Must Lose
Atlanta Chicago
Pittsburgh Cleveland
Denver LA Chargers

This is more like our typical parlay plays.  We believe these three favorites have an excellent chance of starting the year 1-0, and at $178 profit for every $100 invested, it gives a generous reward if the three teams win.

 

 

#5 @ +478  
Must Win Must Lose
Baltimore Cincinnati
New Orleans Minnesota

Seldom is a +478 parlay our favorite selection of a week, but this one is.  It is our opinion that the wrong teams are favored in these two games.  The odds makers are giving the home teams much too much advantage for playing at home.  Cincinnati does not have the great home field advantage it had in the good ole days.  Minnesota’s advantage comes later in the season.  We will go with superior quarterbacks in these two games.

 

Once again, please do not wager your own money (or anybody else’s) on our recommendations.  We go a bit liberal with our selections, because we don’t have any financial stake at risk.

 

 

 

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August 24, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for August 26, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:19 am

It’s here!  We hope you enjoyed a nice summer.  It’s football time in America once again.  Yes, in just two days, five college football games will dot the abbreviated schedule, including a game in Sydney, Australia.

For those new to this online establishment, the PiRates have been issuing ratings since 1969, when the Captain was a little buccaneer.  The ratings have been refined through the years, and in its current form, they look beyond the score of the game.  Our ratings rely on a perusal of the play-by-play data of the games, when the scores took place, how many yards were gained by each team, turnovers, and other odds and sods.  Two teams favored by 7 points over their opponents could both win their games 42-24, and they could mean two different things.  One team might have led 42-7 midway through the third quarter and allowed 17 points with their reserves.  The other team might have led 28-24 with 6 minutes to go in the game, and then the trailing team gave up a pick six and a fumble at their own 15 yard line to give up two late scores.  The former team could have won 70-7 if they had not let off the gas pedal, while the latter team might have lost the game had the turnovers not occurred.

Also, we factor in depth all through the season, underclassmen that contribute unexpectedly, and other factors that might affect a game score.  Additionally, our home field advantages are not fluid.  If North Carolina hosts Wake Forest, the home field advantage will be less than if North Carolina hosts Oregon State.  In some instances, the visiting team brings along an away from home field disadvantage.

We have three predictive ratings–PiRate, Mean, and Bias.  We also have retrodictive ratings that look only at past results and try to rank teams the way the polls should rank them.  At the beginning of the season, these retrodictive ratings have a rather high standard deviation, so we normalize them a bit with our predictive ratings.  By mid-October, these ratings are 100% retrodictive.

Let’s take a look at our Predictive Ratings for the 130 FBS schools.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
2 Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
3 Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
4 Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
5 Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
6 Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
7 Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
8 Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
9 U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
10 Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
11 L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
12 Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
13 Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
14 Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
15 Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
16 Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
17 Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
18 Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
19 Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
20 N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
21 Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
22 Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
23 Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
24 Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
25 Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
26 Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
27 Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
28 Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
29 South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
30 T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
31 Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
32 Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
33 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
34 Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
35 Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
36 Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
37 N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
38 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
39 U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
40 West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
41 Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
42 Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
43 Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
44 Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
45 Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
46 S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
47 Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
48 Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
49 Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
50 Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
51 Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
52 Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
53 Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
54 Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
55 Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
56 B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
57 Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
58 Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
59 Boston Coll. 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
60 Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
61 Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
62 Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
63 Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
64 Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
65 San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
66 Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
67 Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
68 W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
69 Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
70 Appalachian St. 99.8 96.8 100.4 99.0
71 Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
72 Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
73 Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
74 Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
75 Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
76 Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
77 SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
78 California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
79 Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
80 Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
82 Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
83 Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
84 Troy 94.1 94.4 93.4 94.0
85 Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
86 New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
87 U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
88 Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
89 Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
90 Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
91 Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
92 Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
93 Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
94 Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
95 Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
96 Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
97 Arkansas St. 88.3 90.1 90.0 89.5
98 Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
99 East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
100 Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
101 Idaho 86.4 89.1 87.2 87.5
102 Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
103 U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
104 Georgia St. 86.3 85.5 86.2 86.0
105 Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
106 Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
107 San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
108 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.8 84.7 85.5
109 Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
110 Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
111 Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
112 S. Alabama 83.8 86.8 84.0 84.9
113 Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
114 Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
115 Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
116 Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
117 N. Mexico St. 84.2 81.5 83.2 83.0
118 Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
119 Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
120 Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
121 N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
122 Georgia Southern 80.4 82.1 79.8 80.8
123 Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
124 Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
125 UL-Monroe 79.6 80.2 77.8 79.2
126 U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
127 Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
128 Coastal Carolina 72.1 73.5 73.9 73.2
129 Texas St. 70.7 74.7 69.4 71.6
130 UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3

Here are the predictive ratings by conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
         
AAC Averages   98.7 98.7 98.5
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
         
ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
         
Big 12 Averages 108.4 108.7 108.6 108.6
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3
         
CUSA Averages 89.9 92.1 91.0 91.0
         
Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
         
Independents Averages 98.3 97.1 98.7 98.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
         
MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
         
MWC Averages 91.6 91.9 91.8 91.7
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.7 109.1 109.8 109.9
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
         
SEC Averages 113.1 111.6 112.4 112.4
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.8 96.8 100.4 99.0
Troy 94.1 94.4 93.4 94.0
Arkansas St. 88.3 90.1 90.0 89.5
Idaho 86.4 89.1 87.2 87.5
Georgia St. 86.3 85.5 86.2 86.0
UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.8 84.7 85.5
S. Alabama 83.8 86.8 84.0 84.9
N. Mexico St. 84.2 81.5 83.2 83.0
Georgia Southern 80.4 82.1 79.8 80.8
UL-Monroe 79.6 80.2 77.8 79.2
Coastal Carolina 72.1 73.5 73.9 73.2
Texas St. 70.7 74.7 69.4 71.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 84.2 85.1 84.2 84.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC Averages 113.1 111.6 112.4 112.4
2 ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8
3 Pac-12 Averages 110.7 109.1 109.8 109.9
4 Big 12 Averages 108.4 108.7 108.6 108.6
5 Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1
6 AAC Averages 98.2 98.7 98.7 98.5
7 Independents Averages 98.3 97.1 98.7 98.0
8 MWC Averages 91.6 91.9 91.8 91.7
9 CUSA Averages 89.9 92.1 91.0 91.0
10 MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4
11 Sun Belt Averages 84.2 85.1 84.2 84.5

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Florida St.
4 Clemson
5 Washington
6 Oklahoma
7 USC
8 Penn St.
9 LSU
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Auburn
12 Miami (Fla)
13 Wisconsin
14 Stanford
15 Michigan
16 Florida
17 Virginia Tech
18 Kansas St.
19 Louisville
20 Washington St.
21 Georgia
22 Texas A&M
23 Georgia Tech
24 Utah
25 Tennessee
26 South Florida
27 Iowa
28 Tulsa
29 West Virginia
30 North Carolina
31 Nebraska
32 Western Michigan
33 Colorado
34 North Carolina St.
35 Pittsburgh
36 BYU
37 Houston
38 Northwestern
39 Kentucky
40 TCU
41 Western Kentucky
42 Boise St.
43 Appalachian St.
44 San Diego St.
45 Toledo
46 Minnesota
47 Arkansas
48 Memphis
49 Texas
50 Baylor
51 Mississippi St.
52 Colorado St.
53 Oregon
54 Vanderbilt
55 Ole Miss
56 South Carolina
57 Temple
58 Troy
59 Navy
60 UCLA
61 Notre Dame
62 California
63 Indiana
64 Idaho
65 Wake Forest
66 Old Dominion
67 Louisiana Tech
68 Boston College
69 Arkansas St.
70 Air Force
71 Michigan St.
72 Central Florida
73 Syracuse
74 Duke
75 Missouri
76 Wyoming
77 Texas Tech
78 Arizona St.
79 New Mexico
80 Maryland
81 Arizona
82 Oregon St.
83 Army
84 Ohio
85 Eastern Michigan
86 Middle Tennessee
87 Southern Miss.
88 SMU
89 Iowa St.
90 Northern Illinois
91 UTSA
92 Hawaii
93 Georgia Southern
94 Central Michigan
95 Miami (O)
96 UL-Lafayette
97 Cincinnati
98 Illinois
99 Tulane
100 South Alabama
101 Purdue
102 Akron
103 Utah St.
104 Virginia
105 San Jose St.
106 Nevada
107 Bowling Green
108 North Texas
109 East Carolina
110 UNLV
111 Rutgers
112 Coastal Carolina
113 Kansas
114 Ball St.
115 Georgia St.
116 Connecticut
117 UL-Monroe
118 Kent St.
119 UTEP
120 Charlotte
121 Marshall
122 Florida Int’l.
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 New Mexico St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Texas St.
129 Buffalo
130 UAB

 

This Week’s Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Colorado St. Oregon St. 1.8 1.8 3.1
Massachusetts Hawaii 0.2 -1.4 1.4
San Jose St. South Florida -21.4 -20.0 -23.3
Stanford * Rice 38.4 35.2 36.4
         
* This game will be played in Sydney, Australia

 

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
BYU Portland St. 32.0

 

BOWL PROJECTIONS

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Middle Tennessee South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Temple Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 San Diego St. UCLA
New Mexico CUSA MWC Southern Miss. New Mexico
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston Louisiana Tech
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Idaho
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Central Florida Western Kentucky
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Old Dominion Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Tulsa Mississippi St.
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Florida Atlantic]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Georgia St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Memphis Colorado St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Syracuse] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Duke Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 West Virginia Colorado
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Georgia Tech [Navy]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Notre Dame Nebraska
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Minnesota Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 TCU Arkansas
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [BYU] North Carolina
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Kansas St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Iowa Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Texas Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Louisville Tennessee
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 North Carolina St. Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Miami (Fla) Vanderbilt
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Troy
Cotton At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Florida
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Baylor Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Washington Oklahoma St.
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Georgia
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Kentucky
Peach At-large At-large Florida St. South Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Wisconsin LSU
Rose Playoff Semi-final Auburn Alabama
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. USC
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Ohio St. Alabama

Note: There will be no money line parlay selections issued this week.  There are not enough games.  That feature will commence next Thursday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 20, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 20-24, 2016

Not So Good

Last weekend was not a great one for the parlay-pickers at PiRate Headquarters.  We selected four longshot parlays and returned one winner at +192, as upsets by Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt prevented a potential major windfall.

For the season, this drops our mediocre results to just plain not-so-good.  As usual, our solace is that we are not out a penny, because we never actually invest real currency (or whatever you call those green notes in your wallet).

We’re not all that enthused with this week’s schedule either.  It took an extra afternoon to come up with four picks, and we included two underdogs to win outright in our four plays.  Good luck with that.

It may be a better weekend to hike in the forest with all the changing colors on the trees.

1. College Parlay @ +209
California over Oregon
North Carolina over Virginia
West Virginia over TCU
 
2.College Parlay @ +234
Colorado over Stanford
Oklahoma over Texas Tech
Alabama over Texas A&M
Tulsa over Tulane
 
3. College Singleton @ +275
Arizona St. over Washington St.
 
4. NFL Parlay @ +208
Green Bay over Chicago
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Atlanta over San Diego
Denver over Houston

September 6, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For September 9-10, 2016

What an incredible opening week to the college football season!  When was the last time seven SEC schools were 0-1?  It would take a lot of research, but we’re guessing if it happened, it happened back when Sewanee was a member of the league in the 1930’s.

 

How do you imagine Les Miles has slept since Saturday night?  He is going to need a lot of ice to keep cool in that boiling hot seat in Baton Rouge.  What about Mark Stoops, Gus Malzahn, and Derek Mason?  At least Malzahn lost at home by less than a touchdown to the defending national runner-up, but the questionable decisions in the final minutes left many War Eagle fans perplexed.

 

It wasn’t a great week for the Pac-12 Conference either.  USC and UCLA used to play doubleheaders early in the season at the L.A. Coliseum.  Often, it was actually a Friday night, Saturday night deal.  These days, that no longer happens, and this year, both teams ventured to the Lone Star State and left with 0-1 records.  Arizona lost to BYU.  Oregon State lost at Minnesota, and then Washington State lost to Eastern Washington.

 

The Big Ten had a decent first week.  Ohio State and Michigan began the year like the good ole days when the two teams might both still be unbeaten by the time they faced off in late November.  Michigan State, Penn State, and Minnesota won but didn’t look great doing so.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa, and Nebraska looked great doing so.  Purdue’s win over an FCS school looked neutral, while Northwestern and Rutgers lost.  And, then there was Wisconsin.  They Lambeau leapt over LSU, making for Coach Miles’ recent insomnia.

 

The ACC picked up two wins over the SEC in three attempts, and the Big 12 picked up a couple of big wins, led by Texas edging Notre Dame.

 

The big winner of the day was the AAC, where Houston immediately jumped to the top of the Group of Five and even placed themselves into contention for a playoff spot if the Cougars can run the table impressively.  However, they will have to get past a couple of tough conference opponents.

 

Out West, San Diego State and Boise State believe they have what it takes to run the table and challenge Houston for that one guaranteed New Year’s 6 Bowl.

 

Week two does not offer as much as week one of the college season, and there isn’t a Thursday night game, as the NFL gets center stage.  Next week, we actually believe the college schedule has more to offer than week one.  For now, the big game this week is the one taking place at Bristol Motor Speedway just south of Bristol, Tennessee.  The Tennessee Volunteers and Virginia Tech Hokies have not played in decades, even though the two semi-powers are within an easy drive of each other.  They hope to place 150,000 fans in the speedway for the ball game.  It will be the ABC Primetime Game at 8 PM Eastern Time.

 

Usually, after the first week, some new readers to this site will see our ratings and think we are nuts that a team that lost in week one might still be rated higher than the team that beat them.  There are two basic types of ratings’ metrics.  The Predictive Ratings try to predict the outcome of the next game, so what the team has done to this point of the season is not as important as how they might do in the future.

 

You will see that LSU did not fall below Wisconsin in our Predictive Ratings.  Think of it this way.  If the 1927 New York Yankees dropped their season opener to the Boston Red Sox, would that make the Red Sox a better team?  The Yankees would eventually finish 59 games ahead of Boston that year, and no, they did not actually begin the season by losing to Boston.  They defeated the Philadelphia Athletics, the team that would finish number two in the American League.

 

Retrodictive Ratings are more like what you are probably accustomed to seeing.  They rank teams based on what they have done so far and cannot be used to predict the outcome of future games.  If Team A beat Teams B & C, and Team B beat Team C, then they should be ranked A, B, C in that order.  It isn’t that easy because with 128 FBS teams, there are dozens of exceptions where Team A might beat Team B and lose to Team C, while Team B beats Team C.  It gets a little easier as the season continues, because eventually, there will be teams that have done better than other teams in a more organized manner.

 

Okay, if you are still awake, here are our Predictive Ratings this week.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 132.2 124.4 132.2 129.6
2 Clemson 126.4 117.1 125.2 122.9
3 LSU 124.8 118.9 123.9 122.5
4 Tennessee 124.0 119.1 123.8 122.3
5 Oklahoma 122.4 119.2 122.2 121.3
6 Michigan 121.5 119.3 122.1 121.0
7 Florida St. 122.7 115.4 121.6 119.9
8 Oklahoma St. 118.5 119.8 118.5 118.9
9 Louisville 119.9 114.0 119.8 117.9
10 Stanford 120.5 113.1 119.4 117.7
11 Washington 120.5 111.7 120.4 117.5
12 Ohio St. 117.1 117.1 118.3 117.5
13 Texas 114.2 116.9 114.2 115.1
14 Miami 117.9 109.3 117.2 114.8
15 Pittsburgh 116.8 111.4 116.1 114.8
16 Notre Dame 116.4 112.1 115.0 114.5
17 Georgia 114.3 114.4 114.2 114.3
18 Auburn 114.9 113.1 114.4 114.1
19 Houston 113.6 111.5 115.6 113.6
20 North Carolina 115.8 109.0 115.2 113.3
21 Mississippi St. 114.4 111.7 113.5 113.2
22 TCU 112.1 114.4 112.0 112.8
23 Oregon 112.3 111.3 111.2 111.6
24 Texas A&M 111.9 111.2 111.7 111.6
25 Iowa 112.8 109.7 112.2 111.6
26 USC 114.0 108.9 110.8 111.2
27 Ole Miss 113.8 107.4 112.4 111.2
28 Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
29 Wisconsin 112.2 108.4 112.7 111.1
30 Michigan St. 111.9 111.2 109.9 111.0
31 UCLA 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7
32 Florida 110.0 114.0 107.6 110.5
33 Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
34 Nebraska 111.1 107.3 111.3 109.9
35 Arkansas 112.4 107.1 109.6 109.7
36 Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
37 Utah 111.1 105.0 108.6 108.2
38 Colorado 109.6 104.9 110.1 108.2
39 BYU 110.7 103.4 110.3 108.1
40 South Florida 108.5 105.9 109.7 108.0
41 Penn St. 107.4 109.7 105.6 107.6
42 Boise St. 105.7 108.7 108.1 107.5
43 Washington St. 108.8 104.1 108.5 107.2
44 North Carolina St. 108.3 105.0 107.9 107.1
45 West Virginia 107.2 106.6 106.8 106.9
46 Georgia Tech 108.3 104.6 107.7 106.9
47 Arizona 107.1 104.7 106.1 106.0
48 Northwestern 108.2 102.7 106.6 105.8
49 San Diego St. 105.1 102.4 108.4 105.3
50 Kansas St. 103.9 107.2 103.5 104.9
51 Texas Tech 106.4 103.8 104.2 104.8
52 Boston College 104.9 103.2 104.6 104.2
53 Minnesota 104.6 102.6 104.3 103.8
54 Western Michigan 103.7 101.9 105.6 103.7
55 Indiana 102.1 106.7 102.0 103.6
56 Tulsa 102.3 104.4 103.4 103.4
57 Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
58 Vanderbilt 105.1 100.1 102.8 102.7
59 Toledo 102.7 101.1 103.6 102.5
60 Cincinnati 101.3 102.5 102.3 102.1
61 Missouri 102.4 101.3 101.7 101.8
62 Maryland 100.9 104.2 98.1 101.1
63 Central Michigan 99.1 102.1 100.1 100.4
64 South Carolina 100.8 99.9 100.4 100.4
65 Duke 100.4 101.7 99.0 100.4
66 Western Kentucky 101.1 96.5 102.5 100.0
67 Appalachian St. 99.2 98.4 101.7 99.8
68 Memphis 102.0 97.1 100.1 99.8
69 Illinois 101.1 97.7 100.3 99.7
70 Virginia 100.9 97.7 100.3 99.6
71 Air Force 99.3 99.6 99.5 99.5
72 Temple 99.2 98.8 99.9 99.3
73 California 103.9 93.4 99.8 99.0
74 Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
75 Wake Forest 100.0 97.5 98.8 98.8
76 Kentucky 98.3 100.3 97.2 98.6
77 Purdue 99.4 96.6 98.3 98.1
78 Iowa St. 98.3 97.7 97.2 97.7
79 Northern Illinois 95.9 97.6 96.8 96.8
80 New Mexico 95.0 98.3 96.3 96.6
81 Connecticut 97.0 94.8 97.3 96.4
82 Rutgers 97.9 94.9 96.0 96.3
83 Utah St. 94.5 98.4 94.3 95.7
84 Oregon St. 98.0 93.2 95.4 95.5
85 Southern Miss. 94.8 94.1 95.8 94.9
86 Marshall 92.5 96.9 94.3 94.6
87 East Carolina 93.1 96.1 93.2 94.1
88 Middle Tennessee 92.7 95.3 93.8 93.9
89 Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
90 SMU 93.4 92.0 92.6 92.7
91 Nevada 91.1 94.4 92.4 92.7
92 Bowling Green 93.2 91.4 92.8 92.5
93 UNLV 90.3 94.9 90.4 91.9
94 Arkansas St. 90.2 92.0 92.6 91.6
95 Army 87.5 95.9 91.1 91.5
96 Kansas 89.5 97.3 87.1 91.3
97 Louisiana Tech 89.4 91.8 90.6 90.6
98 Ohio 85.9 95.0 86.8 89.3
99 San Jose St. 88.4 88.8 88.9 88.7
100 Central Florida 87.3 90.0 87.3 88.2
101 Akron 84.6 92.4 86.3 87.8
102 Old Dominion 86.2 89.6 86.8 87.5
103 Colorado St. 85.9 88.1 86.2 86.7
104 Troy 83.9 90.5 85.5 86.7
105 Florida Atlantic 84.6 88.3 86.5 86.5
106 Ball St. 85.0 86.9 85.6 85.8
107 Tulane 84.5 87.8 84.7 85.7
108 Rice 82.9 90.9 82.6 85.5
109 Kent St. 84.4 86.1 84.6 85.1
110 Miami (O) 84.0 85.2 84.9 84.7
111 Florida Int’l 81.8 88.9 83.2 84.6
112 South Alabama 80.8 89.2 82.2 84.1
113 Wyoming 83.9 83.8 84.2 84.0
114 Georgia St. 80.3 85.8 82.1 82.7
115 Fresno St. 81.4 85.7 81.1 82.7
116 Eastern Michigan 79.6 85.1 81.0 81.9
117 Buffalo 78.3 87.6 79.7 81.9
118 UTSA 78.1 86.8 80.6 81.9
119 Massachusetts 78.5 87.3 79.7 81.8
120 Idaho 77.9 85.0 79.5 80.8
121 UL-Lafayette 75.2 84.0 77.1 78.8
122 UTEP 75.8 80.5 77.3 77.9
123 Hawaii 76.6 75.4 75.5 75.8
124 North Texas 74.3 76.7 74.3 75.1
125 Charlotte 71.7 78.9 72.8 74.5
126 New Mexico St. 72.4 75.5 73.4 73.8
127 Texas St. 71.6 72.7 72.8 72.4
128 UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8

 

And, here are our Retrodictive Ratings for this week.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Florida St.
4 Ohio St.
5 Michigan
6 Stanford
7 Louisville
8 Washington
9 TCU
10 Houston
11 Oklahoma
12 Tennessee
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Georgia
15 Wisconsin
16 Oregon
17 Iowa
18 LSU
19 Ole Miss
20 Texas
21 Notre Dame
22 Arkansas
23 North Carolina
24 Miami (Fla)
25 Texas A&M
26 Michigan St.
27 Florida
28 Baylor
29 Pittsburgh
30 West Virginia
31 Auburn
32 Utah
33 Nebraska
34 USC
35 UCLA
36 BYU
37 San Diego St.
38 Western Michigan
39 Toledo
40 Western Kentucky
41 Boise St.
42 Arizona St.
43 Penn St.
44 North Carolina St.
45 Georgia Tech
46 South Florida
47 Mississippi St.
48 Virginia Tech
49 Navy
50 Texas Tech
51 Appalachian St.
52 Northwestern
53 California
54 Indiana
55 Minnesota
56 Washington St.
57 Memphis
58 Colorado
59 Duke
60 Arizona
61 Georgia Southern
62 Southern Miss.
63 Syracuse
64 Kansas St.
65 Cincinnati
66 Illinois
67 Air Force
68 Central Michigan
69 East Carolina
70 South Carolina
71 Tulsa
72 Utah St.
73 Louisiana Tech
74 Wake Forest
75 Temple
76 Missouri
77 MTSU
78 Arkansas St.
79 Maryland
80 Marshall
81 Purdue
82 Akron
83 Vanderbilt
84 Northern Illinois
85 Connecticut
86 Boston College
87 South Alabama
88 Bowling Green
89 Kentucky
90 Nevada
91 New Mexico
92 Army
93 Oregon St.
94 SMU
95 Virginia
96 Iowa St.
97 Rutgers
98 Ohio
99 Kansas
100 San Jose St.
101 Colorado St.
102 UNLV
103 Central Florida
104 Troy
105 Florida Atlantic
106 Ball St.
107 Wyoming
108 Old Dominion
109 Rice
110 UTEP
111 Texas St.
112 Idaho
113 Florida Int’l.
114 Massachusetts
115 Georgia St.
116 Eastern Michigan
117 UTSA
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Tulane
120 Fresno St.
121 Buffalo
122 Kent St.
123 Miami (O)
124 UL-Monroe
125 Hawaii
126 North Texas
127 New Mexico St.
128 Charlotte

Here are the Predictive Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 108.5 105.9 109.7 108.0
Cincinnati 101.3 102.5 102.3 102.1
Temple 99.2 98.8 99.9 99.3
Connecticut 97.0 94.8 97.3 96.4
East Carolina 93.1 96.1 93.2 94.1
Central Florida 87.3 90.0 87.3 88.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 113.6 111.5 115.6 113.6
Tulsa 102.3 104.4 103.4 103.4
Memphis 102.0 97.1 100.1 99.8
Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
SMU 93.4 92.0 92.6 92.7
Tulane 84.5 87.8 84.7 85.7
         
AAC Averages 98.5 98.4 98.7 98.5
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 126.4 117.1 125.2 122.9
Florida St. 122.7 115.4 121.6 119.9
Louisville 119.9 114.0 119.8 117.9
North Carolina St. 108.3 105.0 107.9 107.1
Boston College 104.9 103.2 104.6 104.2
Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
Wake Forest 100.0 97.5 98.8 98.8
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 117.9 109.3 117.2 114.8
Pittsburgh 116.8 111.4 116.1 114.8
North Carolina 115.8 109.0 115.2 113.3
Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
Georgia Tech 108.3 104.6 107.7 106.9
Duke 100.4 101.7 99.0 100.4
Virginia 100.9 97.7 100.3 99.6
         
ACC Averages 111.3 107.0 110.6 109.6
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 122.4 119.2 122.2 121.3
Oklahoma St. 118.5 119.8 118.5 118.9
Texas 114.2 116.9 114.2 115.1
TCU 112.1 114.4 112.0 112.8
Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
West Virginia 107.2 106.6 106.8 106.9
Kansas St. 103.9 107.2 103.5 104.9
Texas Tech 106.4 103.8 104.2 104.8
Iowa St. 98.3 97.7 97.2 97.7
Kansas 89.5 97.3 87.1 91.3
         
Big 12 Averages 108.2 109.3 107.6 108.4
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 121.5 119.3 122.1 121.0
Ohio St. 117.1 117.1 118.3 117.5
Michigan St. 111.9 111.2 109.9 111.0
Penn St. 107.4 109.7 105.6 107.6
Indiana 102.1 106.7 102.0 103.6
Maryland 100.9 104.2 98.1 101.1
Rutgers 97.9 94.9 96.0 96.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 112.8 109.7 112.2 111.6
Wisconsin 112.2 108.4 112.7 111.1
Nebraska 111.1 107.3 111.3 109.9
Northwestern 108.2 102.7 106.6 105.8
Minnesota 104.6 102.6 104.3 103.8
Illinois 101.1 97.7 100.3 99.7
Purdue 99.4 96.6 98.3 98.1
         
Big Ten Averages 107.7 106.3 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 101.1 96.5 102.5 100.0
Marshall 92.5 96.9 94.3 94.6
Middle Tennessee 92.7 95.3 93.8 93.9
Old Dominion 86.2 89.6 86.8 87.5
Florida Atlantic 84.6 88.3 86.5 86.5
Florida International 81.8 88.9 83.2 84.6
Charlotte 71.7 78.9 72.8 74.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 94.8 94.1 95.8 94.9
Louisiana Tech 89.4 91.8 90.6 90.6
Rice 82.9 90.9 82.6 85.5
UTSA 78.1 86.8 80.6 81.9
UTEP 75.8 80.5 77.3 77.9
North Texas 74.3 76.7 74.3 75.1
         
CUSA Averages 85.1 88.9 86.2 86.7
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 116.4 112.1 115.0 114.5
BYU 110.7 103.4 110.3 108.1
Army 87.5 95.9 91.1 91.5
Massachusetts 78.5 87.3 79.7 81.8
         
Independents Averages 98.3 99.7 99.0 99.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 93.2 91.4 92.8 92.5
Ohio 85.9 95.0 86.8 89.3
Akron 84.6 92.4 86.3 87.8
Kent St. 84.4 86.1 84.6 85.1
Miami (O) 84.0 85.2 84.9 84.7
Buffalo 78.3 87.6 79.7 81.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 103.7 101.9 105.6 103.7
Toledo 102.7 101.1 103.6 102.5
Central Michigan 99.1 102.1 100.1 100.4
Northern Illinois 95.9 97.6 96.8 96.8
Ball St. 85.0 86.9 85.6 85.8
Eastern Michigan 79.6 85.1 81.0 81.9
         
MAC Averages 89.7 92.7 90.6 91.0
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 105.7 108.7 108.1 107.5
Air Force 99.3 99.6 99.5 99.5
New Mexico 95.0 98.3 96.3 96.6
Utah St. 94.5 98.4 94.3 95.7
Colorado St. 85.9 88.1 86.2 86.7
Wyoming 83.9 83.8 84.2 84.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 105.1 102.4 108.4 105.3
Nevada 91.1 94.4 92.4 92.7
UNLV 90.3 94.9 90.4 91.9
San Jose St. 88.4 88.8 88.9 88.7
Fresno St. 81.4 85.7 81.1 82.7
Hawaii 76.6 75.4 75.5 75.8
         
MWC Averages 91.4 93.3 92.1 92.3
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 120.5 113.1 119.4 117.7
Washington 120.5 111.7 120.4 117.5
Oregon 112.3 111.3 111.2 111.6
Washington St. 108.8 104.1 108.5 107.2
California 103.9 93.4 99.8 99.0
Oregon St. 98.0 93.2 95.4 95.5
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 114.0 108.9 110.8 111.2
UCLA 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7
Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
Utah 111.1 105.0 108.6 108.2
Colorado 109.6 104.9 110.1 108.2
Arizona 107.1 104.7 106.1 106.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.5 105.9 109.0 108.5
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 124.0 119.1 123.8 122.3
Georgia 114.3 114.4 114.2 114.3
Florida 110.0 114.0 107.6 110.5
Vanderbilt 105.1 100.1 102.8 102.7
Missouri 102.4 101.3 101.7 101.8
South Carolina 100.8 99.9 100.4 100.4
Kentucky 98.3 100.3 97.2 98.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 132.2 124.4 132.2 129.6
LSU 124.8 118.9 123.9 122.5
Auburn 114.9 113.1 114.4 114.1
Mississippi St. 114.4 111.7 113.5 113.2
Texas A&M 111.9 111.2 111.7 111.6
Ole Miss 113.8 107.4 112.4 111.2
Arkansas 112.4 107.1 109.6 109.7
         
SEC Averages 112.8 110.2 111.8 111.6
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.2 98.4 101.7 99.8
Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
Arkansas St. 90.2 92.0 92.6 91.6
Troy 83.9 90.5 85.5 86.7
South Alabama 80.8 89.2 82.2 84.1
Georgia St. 80.3 85.8 82.1 82.7
Idaho 77.9 85.0 79.5 80.8
UL-Lafayette 75.2 84.0 77.1 78.8
New Mexico St. 72.4 75.5 73.4 73.8
Texas St. 71.6 72.7 72.8 72.4
UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.1 85.3 82.8 83.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.8 110.2 111.8 111.6
2 ACC 111.3 107.0 110.6 109.6
3 Pac-12 110.5 105.9 109.0 108.5
4 Big 12 108.2 109.3 107.6 108.4
5 Big Ten 107.7 106.3 107.0 107.0
6 Independents 98.3 99.7 99.0 99.0
7 AAC 98.5 98.4 98.7 98.5
8 MWC 91.4 93.3 92.1 92.3
9 MAC 89.7 92.7 90.6 91.0
10 CUSA 85.1 88.9 86.2 86.7
11 Sun Belt 81.1 85.3 82.8 83.1

And, here are our spreads for this week.

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Friday, September 9      
Florida Int’l. Maryland -16.1 -12.3 -11.9
Syracuse Louisville -11.7 -10.0 -13.7
         
Saturday, September 10      
Army Rice 7.6 8.0 11.5
East Carolina North Carolina St. -12.7 -6.4 -12.2
U Mass (N) Boston College -27.9 -17.4 -26.4
Michigan Central Florida 37.7 32.8 38.3
Pittsburgh Penn St. 11.9 4.2 13.0
Purdue Cincinnati 0.6 -3.4 -1.5
Nebraska Wyoming 30.2 26.5 30.1
Oklahoma St. Central Michigan 22.4 20.7 21.4
Clemson Troy 45.5 29.6 42.7
USC Utah St. 22.5 13.5 19.5
Air Force Georgia St. 22.0 16.8 20.4
Kansas Ohio 6.6 5.3 3.3
Appalachian St. Old Dominion 15.5 11.3 17.4
Duke Wake Forest 2.9 6.7 2.7
Florida Kentucky 14.7 16.7 13.4
Notre Dame Nevada 28.8 21.2 26.1
Ohio St. Tulsa 18.3 16.2 18.4
Alabama Western Kentucky 34.1 30.9 32.7
Baylor SMU 18.5 20.2 20.5
Wisconsin Akron 30.6 19.0 29.4
Navy Connecticut 5.2 7.2 4.3
Indiana Ball St. 19.6 22.3 18.9
Vanderbilt Middle Tennessee 14.4 6.8 11.0
Colorado St. UTSA 10.8 4.3 8.6
Washington Idaho 45.6 29.7 43.9
Miami (Fla) Florida Atlantic 35.8 23.5 33.2
South Florida Northern Illinois 15.6 11.3 15.9
Mississippi St. South Carolina 16.6 14.8 16.1
Oklahoma UL-Monroe 57.5 48.9 56.9
TCU Arkansas 2.7 10.3 5.4
Texas UTEP 41.4 39.4 39.9
South Alabama Georgia Southern -9.7 0.1 -10.8
Auburn Arkansas St. 27.7 24.1 24.8
Illinois North Carolina -11.7 -8.3 -11.9
Iowa Iowa St. 16.5 14.0 17.0
Missouri Eastern Michigan 25.8 19.2 23.7
Utah BYU 2.4 3.6 0.3
Tennessee (N) Virginia Tech 13.0 8.3 12.3
UCLA UNLV 23.8 18.5 23.2
New Mexico St. New Mexico -20.6 -20.8 -20.9
Arizona St. Texas Tech 5.3 8.4 6.5
Boise St. Washington St. -12.3 -0.5 -9.8
Oregon Virginia 14.9 17.1 14.4
San Diego St. California 4.2 12.0 11.6

Here are the PiRate Ratings For FBS vs. FCS games this week.

FBS FCS PiRate
Georgia Nicholls St. 55.6
Rutgers Howard 34.9
Houston Lamar 48.9
Minnesota Indiana St. 25.7
Texas A&M Prairie View 43.6
Florida St. Charleston Sou. 38.4
Temple Stony Brook 23.9
West Virginia Youngstown St. 27.2
Georgia Tech Mercer 31.3
Bowling Green North Dakota 24.0
Miami (O) Eastern Illinois 11.0
Northwestern Illinois St. 21.0
Ole Miss Wofford 41.9
San Jose St. Portland St. 11.2
Colorado Idaho St. 39.4
Charlotte Elon 10.1
Kent St. N. C. A&T 11.0
Marshall Morgan St. 40.9
Toledo Maine 34.5
Louisiana Tech S. Carolina St. 35.5
UL-Lafayette McNeese St. 4.6
Western Michigan UNC Central 37.1
North Texas Bethune Cookman 5.2
Southern Miss. Savannah St. 49.4
LSU Jacksonville St. 31.5
Tulane Southern 21.5
Fresno St. Cal St. Sacramento 21.7
Arizona Grambling 40.3
Hawaii UT-Martin 6.1

Our Bowl Projections will commence in October.

 

Check back Thursday for our Just for Fun Money Line Parlay  selections.  Week one was a dud, as two upsets did us in.

August 22, 2016

2016 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:45 am

The Pac-12 was the odd league out last season in the NCAA Playoffs, as league champion Stanford saw their chances to earn a bid end before they started last year. An opening week loss at Northwestern in which the Cardinal could not run the ball and could not average even 4.5 yards per pass attempt. After that game, Stanford averaged more than 40 points per game the rest of the season and almost 10 yards per pass attempt. It culminated with a blowout win over Iowa in the Rose Bowl.

This season, Stanford begins the year as our choice to be the fourth seed in the 2017 FBS Playoffs, but their path to the conference championship is cluttered by nine additional teams fully capable of beating anybody else in this league. The Pac-12 will be as competitive as it has ever been, and the PiRate believe that 10 teams will earn bowl elibility this season, including the entire South Division. Yes, even Colorado is improved enough to go 6-6 and earn its first bowl bid in nine years.

The North Division has the two bottom-feeding teams to begin the 2016 season. California must start over with a major rebuild after losing top draft selection Jared Goff and the top six pass receivers on offense and their top three defensive stars. The Golden Bears and Oregon State, which has returned to their familiar position of the 1970’s, 80’s, and 90’s, will fight it out in Corvallis in early October to see which team will avoid a possible 0-9 conference record.

The other four teams in the North Division will make for an excellent race this year. Stanford is the favorite to begin the season, but the Cardinal are not a shoo-in to win their division, much less the overall league championship. A new quarterback must be found to replace Kevin Hogan, but Coach David Shaw has a happy decision to make in replacing him. Both Keller Chryst and Ryan Burns are highly talented and able to put up better overall stats than Hogan.

Of course, whoever wins the starting job, or even if it becomes a platoon, the number one job for the QBs will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey 25 times a game and getting out of the way. McCaffrey begins the season as one of two top candidates for the Heisman Trophy (Clemson’s DeShaun Watson being the other). McCaffrey led the Cardinal with more than 2,000 rushing yards in 2015, and he also led the team in receptions and receiving yards. A reloaded offensive line should allow SU to stay consistently strong all year, and hopefully for fans on The Farm, the team will not lay an egg in September, when most of the difficult games will be played.

Washington is the sexy pick of many pundits to win the North this year, as the Huskies return a lot of talent from a 7-6 team, including two capable quarterbacks and a running back that scored 14 rushing touchdowns and who will be running behind an experienced and talented offensive line.

The Huskies have a chance to be 4-0 when they face Stanford on Friday night, September 30, but they could also be 0-1 in the league and looking at elimination with a loss to SU.

Oregon missed Marcus Mariota enough to lose four games for the first time since 2007. The Ducks look to be in the same boat again this year, lacking enough offensive consistency to win games 52-42 every week, while having a defense that could give up 40 points per game in conference play. Adding a road game in Lincoln against Nebraska plus facing USC and Utah on the road from the other division means the Ducks are likely to lose four games again this year.

The Pirate worked his magic again last year. Coach Mike Leach guided Washington State to its first nine-win season in a dozen years. The Cougars shaved 11 points per game off their 2014 defensive average, while continuing to pass the ball better than any other team in the land. Luke Falk completed nearly 70% of his passes in his first year as a starter in Pullman with a TD/INT ratio of 38 to 8. Most of Falk’s receivers are back, and the pass blockers are talented enough to allow Falk time to find them. The WSU offense should be even better this year, and after averaging around 31 points per game for three years running, this team should top 35 per game this season. Keep an eye on this team: they could be the dark horse to challenge Stanford.

There is no clear-cut favorite in the South Division, and it would not be at all surprising if multiple teams finished tied for first at 6-3 or even 5-4. Home field advantages in Boulder, Salt Lake City, Tempe, Tucson, and Los Angeles are enough to turn underdogs into favorites, and no team in this division has the talent to be a prohibitive favorite over another team.

Somebody has to win a trip to the Conference Championship Game, and our choice from among the six fairly equal teams is USC. The Trojans must replace Cody Kessler at QB, but their offense is deep and talented, albeit not dominating everywhere else. Max Browne is the new starting quarterback. He has played sparingly in two seasons, but the former top QB in the 2012 class has a rifle arm and can throw the ball 50-60 yards with ease.

The Trojan defense will be suspect at the start of the season, especially up front where there will be an entirely new starting defensive line and two new linebackers. If any type of pass rush can be generated, the secondary could lead the league in interceptions, as the Trojans are loaded in the back of the defense.

UCLA has the missing the experienced quarterback in Josh Rosen, but the Bruins have a lot of holes to plug everywhere else on the offense. The Bruins lost their star running back and top two receivers, as well as three star offensive linemen. Rosen might be running for his life a bit too much for the Bruin offense to excel this year.

Defensively, The Sons of Westwood could lead the division in fewest points and yard allowed. 15 of the top 17 tacklers from 2015 are back including the entire front four and six of the front seven.

Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado could play each other 100 times each and all win 50 times. There is very little separating these four teams, as each has its own strengths and exploitable weaknesses. Home field advantage should allow the quartet to pick up key conference wins in their paths to bowl eligibility. Other than Colorado’s September 17 game at Michigan, these teams should win all their remaining non-conference games this year. Hosting Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, and Utah should give the Buffaloes a 50-50 chance at finding four additional wins after securing two against Colorado State and Idaho, so CU has a fighting chance to give 4th year coach Mike MacIntyre his first bowl team in Boulder.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media predicted the standings.

Pac-12 North Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Stanford 24 186 20
2 Washington 8 163 4
3 Oregon 1 132  
4 Washington St. 0 112  
5 California 0 67  
6 Oregon St. 0 33  
         
Pac-12 South Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 UCLA 19 180 3
2 USC 12 173 5
3 Utah 2 127 1
4 Arizona 0 87  
5 Arizona St. 0 85  
6 Colorado 0 63  

Here is how the PiRate Ratings show the league at the start of the season.

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1

 

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.

Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

Pac-12 Conference Projected Standings
North Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Stanford 8-1 12-1 * Playoffs–Peach
Washington 7-2 10-2 Rose
Oregon 6-3 8-4 Holiday
Washington St. 5-4 8-4 Foster Farms
California 1-8 2-10  
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11  
       
South Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
USC 7-2 9-4 Alamo
UCLA 6-3 7-5 Sun
Arizona St. 4-5 7-5 Las Vegas
Colorado 4-5 6-6 [St. Petersburg] *
Arizona 3-6 6-6 [Armed Forces] *
Utah 3-6 6-6 Cactus
       
* Colorado’s and Arizona’s bowl bids are at-large invitations

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Atlantic Coast Conference was once the weakest of the Power 5 leagues and arguably only on par with the old Big East Conference.  Now, the ACC is number two for the first time ever.

December 26, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Semifinal Round of the 2015-16 PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs have been played, and the Final Four has now been whittled down to two.

 

In case you are wondering why Michigan St., Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Stanford are the Final Four teams, this season’s simulation used the Football Championship Series format of 24 teams.  Michigan St. defeated Baylor and Iowa to make it to the semifinals.  Ole Miss defeated Houston, Clemson, and North Carolina, as the Rebels were the #16 seed and had to win a play-in game to make it to the Sweet 16.  Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Ohio St., while Stanford got here by knocking off Florida St. and Alabama.

 

Here are the Final Four Semifinal Results.

Semifinal Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss 3 14 7 3 27 18 129 268 397
#5 Michigan St. 0 7 10 0 17 17 161 158 327
                   
#3 Oklahoma 0 3 21 7 31 22 154 247 401
#7 Stanford 7 6 0 7 20 17 169 158 327

This sets up Simper Bowl IX at Arlington, Texas, next week.  16th-seed Ole Miss will play 3rd-seed Oklahoma.

 

Fear not ye of computer simulation tremors.  Next week, we will run our annual 100 sims on the playoff games–the real ones where that sugar-addicted dude Larry Culpepper will be lurking around somewhere.

 

 

December 19, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The first two rounds of the Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs have been previously posted here.  Today’s Quarterfinal Round featured three teams from the Big Ten, two from the SEC, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12.

If you have not been following our 2015-16 tournament, we are using the same 24-team format currently in use by the Football Championship Division.  Here are the contests for the football version of the Elite 8.

Quarterfinal Round   1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss at 10 14 0 3 27 24 163 242 405
#8 North Carolina   7 6 3 0 16 17 145 189 334
                     
#7 Stanford at 7 0 3 7 17 12 130 169 299
#2 Alabama   3 3 7 0 13 17 202 116 318
                     
#6 Ohio St. at 0 3 14 3 20 20 221 106 327
#3 Oklahoma   5 7 14 0 26 22 137 303 440
                     
#5 Michigan St. at 3 3 7 10 23 19 129 222 351
#4 Iowa   0 14 0 7 21 16 172 133 305

The Final Four is now set.  In next week’s semifinal round, it will be:

#16 Ole Miss vs. #5 Michigan St. at the Orange Bowl

#7 Stanford vs. #3 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl

December 11, 2015

Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 2

Welcome back to round 2 of our computer simulated college football playoffs.  If you did not see last week’s posting of round 1, we are taking the Football Bowl Subdivision teams and applying the Football Championship Series rules to the playoffs.

 

Thus our FBS simulated playoffs consisted of 24 teams with every conference champion guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.

 

Here were this week’s Round 2 Pairings.

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame at
#8 North Carolina  
   
#10 Florida St. at
#7 Stanford  
   
#11 TCU at
#6 Ohio St.  
   
#12 Baylor at
#5 Michigan St.  
   
#13 Northwestern at
#4 Iowa  
   
#19 Michigan at
#3 Oklahoma  
   
#15 Oregon at
#2 Alabama  
   
#16 Ole Miss at
#1 Clemson  

 

The games were simulated, and there were some surprises.  Here are the final scores of the games.

North Carolina 27  Notre Dame 23

Stanford 24  Florida St. 20

Ohio St. 34  TCU 21

Michigan St. 27  Baylor 24

Iowa 23 Northwestern 17

Oklahoma 47  Michigan 28

Alabama 20  Oregon 16

Ole Miss 35  Clemson 20

 

Here are the basic stats for those games.

Second Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#9 Notre Dame at 0 14 6 3 23 19 171 149 320
#8 North Carolina   7 10 3 7 27 20 135 271 406
                     
#10 Florida St. at 6 14 0 0 20 17 183 128 311
#7 Stanford   3 7 7 7 24 18 206 149 355
                     
#11 TCU at 0 7 14 0 21 18 130 211 341
#6 Ohio St.   6 3 15 10 34 34 271 138 409
                     
#12 Baylor at 0 3 14 7 24 23 98 226 324
#5 Michigan St.   6 14 7 0 27 16 188 177 365
                     
#13 Northwestern at 10 0 7 0 17 16 129 176 305
#4 Iowa   0 6 3 14 23 16 135 153 288
                     
#19 Michigan at 0 7 7 14 28 22 169 250 419
#3 Oklahoma   14 17 9 7 47 27 251 279 530
                     
#15 Oregon at 3 3 10 0 16 14 76 202 278
#2 Alabama   7 7 3 3 20 18 247 139 386
                     
#16 Ole Miss at 21 7 7 0 35 23 190 194 384
#1 Clemson   0 6 7 7 20 17 147 161 308

 

Here are the pairings for the Quarterfinal Round.

Quarterfinal Round  
#16 Ole Miss at
#8 North Carolina  
   
#7 Stanford at
#2 Alabama  
   
#6 Ohio St. at
#3 Oklahoma  
   
#5 Michigan St. at
#4 Iowa  

December 5, 2015

Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 1

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:44 am

The 2015-16 Computer Simulated Playoffs for FBS football has been extended to 24 teams, using the same format that is presently used for the actual FCS playoffs.

 

In today’s opening round, the number 9 through 24 seeds play at the home stadium of the better seed, while the top 8 seeds receive a bye to the second round, where they will host winners from today’s round.

 

For this computer simulation, we simulated each game only one time.  If we had done 100 or 1,000 simulations for each game, there would be no upsets, and the top seeds would have won every contest, making this experiment useless.

 

Here is today’s Schedule of Round 1 Games:

#24 Arkansas St. at #9 Notre Dame

#23 Bowling Green at #10 Florida St.

#22 Western Kentucky at #11 TCU

#21 San Diego St. at #12 Baylor

#20 Utah at #13 Northwestern

#19 Michigan at #14 Oregon

#18 Michigan at #15 Oklahoma St.

#17 Houston at #16 Ole Miss

 

Here are the results of those Round 1 games:

Team 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#9 Notre Dame 14 14 10 0 38 24 211 174 385
#24 Arkansas St. 0 3 0 7 10 13 12 169 181
 
#10 Florida St. 6 14 10 7 37 23 179 301 480
#23 Bowling Green 3 7 3 7 20 18 86 311 397
#11 TCU 20 14 10 7 51 30 221 307 528
#22 Western Kent. 2 0 14 7 23 18 90 276 366
#12 Baylor 0 3 14 10 27 19 179 194 373
#21 San Diego St. 0 0 7 6 13 14 156 138 294
#13 Northwestern 3 3 10 3 19 16 180 147 327
#20 Utah 0 10 7 0 17 17 91 164 255
#14 Oklahoma St. 10 0 7 7 24 20 152 223 375
#19 Michigan 6 14 7 0 27 22 164 209 373
#15 Oregon 3 13 9 0 25 18 208 159 367
#18 Florida 3 6 3 0 12 12 114 126 240
#16 Ole Miss 16 14 6 3 39 27 177 331 508
#17 Houston 7 10 7 0 24 18 88 209 297

Here are the Round 2 Pairings to be published Friday or Saturday, December 11-12

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame at
#8 North Carolina  
   
#10 Florida St. at
#7 Stanford  
   
#11 TCU at
#6 Ohio St.  
   
#12 Baylor at
#5 Michigan St.  
   
#13 Northwestern at
#4 Iowa  
   
#19 Michigan at
#3 Oklahoma  
   
#15 Oregon at
#2 Alabama  
   
#16 Ole Miss at
#1 Clemson  

November 30, 2015

If Big-time FBS Football Held Its Own 24-Team Playoff

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:16 am

The Football Championship Series of the NCAA conducts a 24-team playoff. The conference champions of all the FCS leagues except the Ivy League, The Southwest Athletic Conference, and the Mideastern Athletic Conference receive an automatic bid.  The Ivy League refuses its teams from playing postseason football, while the SWAC and MEAC champions play in the Celebration Bowl.

The 24-team tournament awards first round byes to the top eight seeds, while the remaining 16 teams play to cut the number from 24 to 16.

What if the Football Bowl Series held a 24-team playoff rather than a four-team playoff? There is still a week to go in the regular season, but if there was a move to a 24-team playoff, this would be the opening week of the playoffs, and the conference championship games would be eliminated in lieu of adding 20 playoff teams.

We will have to surmise the actual conference champions of leagues that still have championships up for grabs, but a 24-team FBS playoff would look something like this.
American Athletic Conference: Houston
Atlantic Coast Conference: Clemson
Big 12 Conference: Oklahoma
Big Ten Conference: Iowa
Conference USA: Western Kentucky
Mid-American Conference: Bowling Green
Mountain West Conference: San Diego St.
Pac-12 Conference: Stanford
Southeastern Conference: Alabama
Sun Belt Conference: Arkansas St.

To those 10 automatic bids, the following 14 teams would receive at-large bids.
Michigan St.
Ohio St.
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Florida St.
TCU
Baylor
Northwestern
Oklahoma St.
Oregon
Ole Miss
Florida
Michigan
Utah

The first round games to be played this week would look something like this.
Numbers in parentheses represent seedings

G1: (24) Arkansas St. at (9) Notre Dame
G2: (23) Bowling Green at (10) Florida St.
G3: (22) Western Kentucky at (11) TCU
G4: (21) San Diego St. at (12) Baylor
G5: (20) Utah at (13) Northwestern
G6: (19) Michgan at (14) Oklahoma St.
G7: (18) Florida at (15) Oregon
G8: (17) Houston at (16) Ole Miss

The Second Round would look like this.
G1 winner at (8) North Carolina
G2 winner at (7) Stanford
G3 winner at (6) Ohio St.
G4 winner at (5) Michigan St.
G5 winner at (4) Iowa
G6 winner at (3) Oklahoma
G7 winner at (2) Alabama
G8 winner at (1) Clemson

If you have been a reader here for long enough, you know that we have access to a large computer that allows us to input all the statistics of each team and simulate games. We inputted the statistics this morning and played all 23 games of this simulated tournament.

We will reveal the results of Round one later this week.

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