The Pi-Rate Ratings

May 1, 2015

PiRate Ratings Kentucky Derby Preview

Filed under: Horse Racing — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:45 pm

Kentucky Derby 141 has been handed over to American Pharoah by the public and the horse racing media, but when have either been correct on something they both agreed upon? If you said the 1977 Belmont Stakes, then you may be correct.

Here’s a little secret about this year’s Deby field: It may be the strongest since 1969 when Majestic Prince, Arts & Letters, Top Knight, and Dike chased away a lot of contenders. Those four quality horses represented half of what was a tiny eight-horse field.

With 19 probable starters now that El Kabeir is likely to scratch tomorrow morning after the deadline for another supplemental entry to make it into the field, there are upwards of seven or eight quality horses that could compete for the win at 10 furlongs.

The key to winning the Kentucky Derby as a fan is to pick a winner that will return you a good price. Betting the favorite and often the second best horse will not return a profit over time. Of course, selecting a 99-1 longshot is simply the same thing as donating your cash to the track.

The way to make money is to find a horse with odds of 5-1 or better and determine that he has a good chance of winning. If you have a game longshot in the 15-1 to 30-1 range, you might consider taking him to show or taking him across the board (win-place-show).

This year, we have many reasons to go against the favorite, but it is really hard to eliminate the next horse, because he looks like a real star. Let’s take a look at the horses in order of odds and tell you what we think. We do not recommend that you invest your money on what we have to say. For full disclosure, we will not lose a penny, because we will not wager a penny. For us, this is all about the race, no betting.

American Pharoah (5-2)

What’s to Like: With the exception of his first race, he has run away from the field every time, gaining in the stretch run without being asked to go by jockey Victor Espinoza. The Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby runs were similar to that of former Derby winner Smarty Jones.

He loves the Churchill Downs track as evidenced by his impressive five furlong workout in 58 and 2 earlier this week.

Ran the final 1/8 mile in 12-3 at the Arkansas Derby with Epsinoza not going to the whip.

Showed two different moves in a two-turn race.

Trainer Bob Baffert knows how to train Derby winners. Jockey Espinoza has two Derby wins, including last year aboard California Chrome.

What’s Not to Like: This horse has not been bred to run 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May as a three year old with a high Dosage Index. Horses with his DI have won past Derbies, but at 5-2 odds, we do not like his pedigree.

Although he has not been asked to run full out in the stretch this year, his early and late pace are not among the best in this field.

Breaking from the 17-hole, he will have to use up a lot of energy to get to the first turn where he likes to be early in the race. It’s likely, he will use up too much energy if he gets up within a couple lengths of the leader at no more than four wide, and it’s unsure if he can win a race from well off the pace, especially when he will have to pass several horses.

His Beyer Speed Figures and Bris Speed Ratings are not as impressive as others, and his low odds make it easy to throw him out of our wagering strategy.

Analysis: He may prove to be another Smarty Jones and run away from the field, but American Pharoah is not our favorite or even a pick to finish in the top three.

Dortmund (3-1)

What’s to Like: This horse is 17 hands tall and is undefeated, having won three races as a two year old and three more this year. The great Seattle Slew was 16 hands tall, and he too was an undefeated colt when he won the Triple Crown.

He has been a little faster in successive races this year, showing a propensity to love increasing distances, and with his pedigree, he is bred to have good speed at 10 furlongs. In fact, his Dosage profile is similar to the entire lot of past Triple Crown winners.

He has shown an ability to get to the lead and wire the field and to also win by coming from off the pace, and he has two definite kicks in his races–one early and one in the stretch.

Jockey Martin Garcia has won big races on Bob Baffert horses in the past, with Lookin’ at Lucky winning the Preakness and the Breeder’s Cup Classic.

He has consistently posted Beyer Speed Figures and Bris Speed Figures strong enough to win the Kentucky Derby.

He has won a race at Churchill Downs, somethng that bodes well for a Derby horse.

His father is Big Brown–‘nuf ced

What’s Not to Like: Very little is not to like about this horse except that his odds are still too low to make money given his chances of not winning against his probable payout.

Even though he has won his most recent races in stretch runs, his speed in the final 1/8 of those races have been slower than American Pharoah–13 seconds in the Santa Anita Derby.

Extremly slow late pace in the SA Derby may hide the fact that this horse may not be fast enough to beat late charging horses with much better late speed

Analysis: At 3-1, he is too expensive for our tastes even if he has the stats of a winner. There are other horses in this field with impressive stats that will return a better bang for the buck.

Carpe Diem (8-1)

What’s to Like: Jockey John Velazquez has a past Derby win on Animal Kingdom, and Trainer Todd Pletcher has numerous Triple Crown race wins including a Kentucky Derby win with Super Saver.

Two for two as a three year old, including the Bluegrass Stakes.

Ran the final 1/8 in 12-4 in the Bluegrass win.

Has the classic Derby racing style–coming from off a pace but not from so many lengths that he will have to pass the entire field.

What’s Not to Like: His wins have not been all that impressive, and he did not look like the best horse in the Bluegrass.

His Beyer and Bris Speed numbers are decent but not as strong as other contenders.

His pedigree is acceptable, but he comes from a line that has not produced a Derby winner in numerous attempts.

Analysis: He could hit the board, but we do not give him a strong shot of wearing the roses.

Materiality (12-1)

What’s to Like: He too is undefeated with an upset win over Upstart in the Florida Derby.

He has two 9 furlong wins this year.

He’s another Pletcher horse with a quality jockey in Javier Castellano, who has a past Preakness and Breeder’s Cup Classic Championship.

He owns the top Beyer Speed Figure with a 110 in the Florida Derby, and his 105 Bris Speed rating is among the three best.

What’s Not to Like: He did not race as a two-year old, and no horse since the 19th century has won this race without running as a two-year old. It is asking too much for a horse to train up to this race starting this late in his career.

Like Dortmund, the late pace in his key prep was much too slow, and this horse will have to win from near the front of the pack. It’s likely, he will lose ground in the stretch.

His final 3/8 in the last two races are typical of a horse that will be out of gas in the stretch, further strengthening the liability just listed.

Analysis: A horse without two year old experience may win the Derby one day, but it will not be one that has our investment wagered on him winning.

Firing Line (12-1)

What’s to Like: Gary Stevens is the top active jockey in the nation.

He’s twice finished less than a length behind Dortmund in stakes races.

Has improved his speed ratings with each race and appears ready to run his best race on Saturday.

What’s Not to Like: It has been since March 22, since he last raced, 41 days.

He has not won a major prep race, with his last win coming in the Sunland Derby in New Mexico.

Analysis: It’s hard to see him in the winner’s circle, but it would not surprise us to see Firing Line hit the board.

Upstart (15-1)

What’s to Like: Even though he was a beaten favorite in his last race, his speed figures and class place him among the contenders.

What’s Not to Like: Appears to be best suited for shorter than 10f races.

Trainer and jockey have no Triple Crown wins.

Ran a rather slow final 1/8 mile in his top prep.

Analysis: There are better investment opportunities.

Frosted (15-1)

What’s to Like: Jockey Joel Rosario has a past Derby win on Orb in 2013.

Ran one of the best key prep races of the group with his victory in the Wood Memorial.

He’s a short closer, meaning he will come from off the pace but not from the back of the field, which has been successful more times in the Derby than any other style.

Ran a final 1/8 of 12-3 in the Wood.

What’s Not to Like: Looks like a possible bounce candidate after running the race of his career and improving on his speed ratings by a large number.

Has a tendency to get bumped by other horses, which has prevented him from contending in other races.

Lost twice against Upstart by considerable lengths.

Analysis: If he can return to his Wood form, he might be dangerous if he does not get boxed in at the mile pole. Look for him to be streaking by the 1/8 pole, but whether he has enough left in the tank to pass them all is a guess. He might be worth a shot to show.

International Star (20-1)

Analysis: This horse lacks the speed or the class to win this race, so there is no need to discuss his assets. He will be flying late in the race but figures to have too much ground to make up and better horses with closing speed ahead of him.

Mubtaahij (20-1)

Analysis: Until a horse shipping from the UAE wins this race, we will lay off him. However, he looked impressive winning two races at 9 1/2 furlongs.

Tencendur (30-1)

What’s to Like: Showed improved speed in his last race, a game second to Frosted in the Wood.

What’s Not to Like: Everything else.

Analysis: Not worth the 30-1 odds in our opinion.

Danzig Moon (30-1)

Analysis: He doesn’t have the figures of a winner, but of the longshots in the race, he piques our interest based on his pedigree and his second place finish in the Bluegrass with a nightmare trip.

Itsaknockout (30-1)

Analysis: Lacks the speed to compete.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1)

Analysis: The race rabbit who will run the opening 1/4 in 22 and change and allow for a likely short closer to win this race unless the top two don’t bite and let him run away at the start.

Keen Ice (50-1)

Analysis: Although he won at Churchill Downs as a 2yo, that’s the only race he’s won.

War Story (50-1)

Analysis: Still eligible for one other than maiden races, which is only a tiny step better than Keen Ice.

Mr. Z (50-1)

Analysis: D. Wayne Lukas always finds a way to enter a horse, even if he might be slower than the pony that accompanies American Pharoah to the gate.

Frammento (50-1)

Analysis: Allowed into the race when Stanford scratched, he has just one career win, and he did not race well in his previous Chuchill start.

Our Pick to Win: This is the toughest Derby we have handicapped in more than a decade. We do not like the top two horses in this race, because they come from a pedigree with zero Kentucky Derby success. It may be a stretch, because of his lack of racing at age two, but we believe Materiality is the best horse in the field. At 12-1, he offers a lot of value, and he is our choice across the board (Win-Place-Show).

We do not like any of the exotic wagers in this race, because there are nine or 10 horses bunched together in the middle of the pack, and any could hit the board. It would require too many wagers.

If we had $100 to wager, we would go with $50 on Materiality to win and $25 to place and show.

May 4, 2012

PiRate Ratings Kentucky Derby 138 Preview

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings, as we preview the 2012 Kentucky Derby today.  Like we do with our NCAA Tournament selections, we have backtested several statistical data and traits of horses that have won past Derbies, with emphasis placed on the most recent runs for the roses.

We also carefully look at how each horse ran each of the 3 year old prep races.  How did he run in the final 3/8 mile?  How did he run in the final 1/8 mile?  Did he gain or lose ground in the stretch?  How did he handle traffic?  What is his running style, and can he rate from off the pace if he is normally one to go to the lead?

These questions are just a sampling of the 53 different sets of data we examine.  We try to isolate horses with the stamina to go 10 furlongs with speed at the finish.  We want a horse that is in the top class of contenders and who competed in at least two of the key preps.  We want a horse that appears to be improving coming into May with little or no chance of bouncing from its last race.

This year, we are faced with something similar to the 1989 Derby.  In 1989, D. Wayne Lukas entered Houston, a horse that could not race past a mile.  He had won the Derby Trial a week earlier, and all Houston did was set a blazing early pace, leading for the first mile.  This allowed Sunday Silence to come from off the pace and upset the heavily favored Easy Goer, a horse that liked to press from just off the lead.

This year, we have Trinniberg, a horse almost assured of breaking from the #9 gate and heading to the lead.  We’re talking about a horse with almost quarterhorse speed and stamina.  He could go the opening quarter in 22 seconds and the half in 45!  This blistering pace would be suicide for any of the contenders to try to press from just off the pace, while a half dozen excellent stalkers compete for the lead in the stretch as the pace-setters come back to the pack.

Trinniberg is going to almost stop after 7 furlongs, making this race very interesting at the end of the backstretch.  This should be a jockey’s race for the handful of horses that can stalk from off the pace and then move at the right time.  Some of these horses will be stuck and have a hard time finding a hole, while some may be forced to go 3, 4, and even 5 wide to stay in the clear.  At 5 wide, a horse will have to run several yards more than a horse on the rail, but a horse on the rail may not get a clean enough trip to move at the right time.  Thus, an experienced jockey will be very important.

In the end, we think the race will develop into a two-horse match down the stretch between Creative Cause and Union Rags.  Creative Cause’s jockey Joel Rosario won the San Felipe on March 10 with a race that wins the Kentucky Derby.  Of the 20 horses in the field, Creative Cause is the closest to the average Derby winner in our crucial statistics.  Union Rags ranks just behind him, in what we would call a statistical dead heat.  The only reason we consider Creative Cause to be our favorite is because we believe Union Rags may have peaked and will not move forward, while we believe Creative Cause is sitting on the best race of his career. 

Bodemeister was the early line favorite, but he has since relinquished that role to Union Rags.  Bodemeister did not race as a two year old, and he is a front-runner.  He cannot go to the lead with Trinniberg, because he will have nothing left in the tank after 7 furlongs.  He will have to rate from off the pace, and he has no history of doing so.  Other horses have better late speed, and we do not see him making a big run when he is called on to do so.

Dullahan is the one horse in the race with a Dosage Index above 4.  In the latter part of the 20th Century, a couple of high dosage horses won, but the trend has returned in the 21st Century.  Horses with pedigrees that indicate 10 furlongs is not their best distance have not fared well.  Also, Dullahan has not shown a propensity to run his best on dirt.  He likes turf and the polytrack. 

Hansen was once the top horse in this crop of horses, but he may have been his best as a two year old.  Additionally, he has not impressed in recent training, and he may not be at top form for the Derby.

El Padrino is a dark horse contender.  However, we believe he is going the wrong way in form. 

Gemologist is undefeated, but that is about the only thing he has in common with Smarty Jones, Seattle Slew, and Majestic Prince.  We believe he ran a bit too hard in winning the Wood Memorial, and he is liable to bounce some. You can throw out Alpha for the same reason.

Take Charge Indy has the hot jockey in Calvin Borel, and we all know where Borel will move his horse before the first turn.  Can he keep his horse on the rail and then find a hole at the right time and make an impressive move down the stretch?  Borel might be able to do so, but we do not believe this horse has enough stamina to stretch out to a mile and a quarter and hold off this class of competition.

We believe a couple of long shots have excellent chances to hit the board and make the exotic payouts very rich.  Daddy Nose Best, Prospective, and Sabercat are three horses that will be flying down the stretch.  They will have too much ground to make up and too many horses to pass to win the race, but any of these three could place or show.

NOTE: The PiRate Ratings will return in August for the football season.  This is the last post until then.  It has come to our attention that our Pro Football Ratings won the Pro Football Prediction Tracker 2011-12 championship against the spread, edging out Sportstrends, Dunkel,  and 70 other national football ratings’ services.

June 6, 2008

A PiRate Look At The Belmont Stakes

A PiRate Extra

Belmont Stakes 140

7-June-2008

Belmont Park—Elmont, NY

Approximately 6:25 PM EDT

Television: ABC

Radio: ESPN Radio

Forecast Weather at Post-Time: Sunny and mid-80’s

 

That great purveyor of prose Yogi Berra once supposedly said, “It’s Déjà vu all over again.”  That’s the scary thought that has been going through my head about the Belmont Stakes.  Let’s look back at three famous winners of the first two legs of the Triple Crown that failed to win the Belmont as prohibitive favorites—two of them were post 1978, the last year a horse won the Triple Crown.

 

In 1979, Spectacular Bid was even more of a heavy favorite than Big Brown is in 2008.  He went to post at 1-10 odds and was already considered to be better than any of the three Triple Crown winner in the 1970’s and maybe the best of all time.  Trainer Bud Delp was confident if not downright cocky enjoying his 15 minutes of fame.  For 20 days after the Preakness, Delp could be seen, heard, and read throughout the nation’s sports pages, television newscasts, and radio broadcasts.  The Bid had won a dozen consecutive races and most of them were not close, so there was no possibility of him losing the Belmont.  Until, that is, he stepped on a safety pin (or as some pundits believe trainer Ronnie Franklin rode the worst race in the history of the Belmont).  One way or the other, a long shot named Coastal pulled off the biggest upset since a horse name Upset pinned the lone loss on Man O’ War.  Coastal was the son of the great Majestic Prince.

 

Majestic Prince was and will always be my favorite horse.  I loved and idolized him the way kids idolize Michael Jordan, A-Rod, or Lebron James; he is the reason the sport of kings is my favorite sport.  Majestic Prince entered the 1969 Kentucky Derby having won all seven of his previous races.  In a year many believe to have been the strongest ever for thoroughbreds with Top Knight, Arts & Letters, and Dike competing against him, and the great Ack Ack waiting in the wings later in the summer, there was no way Majestic Prince or any of these other greats could possibly win the Triple Crown. 

 

The Prince won the Derby by coming from behind to edge Arts & Letters.  He repeated the feat at Pimlico two weeks later, but in the Preakness, he injured a tendon on his right front leg.  Trainer Johnny Longden, one of the best jockeys ever and rider of Triple Crown winner Count Fleet, was ready to pull Majestic Prince from the Belmont, as the horse weight and training time and was obviously not ready to run.  Because it had been 21 years since Citation had been the last Triple Crown winner, there was intense pressure from all sources for Majestic Prince to run.  That pressure plus Triple Crown Fever led owner Frank McMahon to overrule Longden and enter the Prince in the Belmont.

 

Majestic Prince trailed far behind for one mile of the Belmont as jockey Bill Hartack didn’t want to force the great, but ailing horse to stalk from just off the lead (the normal strategy for the horse).  In the final two furlongs, Majestic Prince made a move and passed three horses but couldn’t overtake Arts & Letters, losing by five lengths.  It was the Prince’s last race.

 

Let us fast forward to the year 1981.  A horse named Pleasant Colony was not undefeated entering the Kentucky Derby, but he was one for one under his new trainer, Johnny Campo.  Campo was a likeable loudmouth.  He was the quintessential New Yorker with a large opinion of his opinions.  He was never at a loss for words, and when his horse won the roses at Churchill Downs, Campo’s lips were the only thing that he exercised. 

 

Campo was a short and quite obese but hard-working trainer with a chip on his shoulders the size of his girth.  He made for great copy.  Members of the press would ask him one question and get enough information for two stories.  When Pleasant Colony won the Preakness, Campo was ready to give reporters enough verbiage to write a book the size of War and Peace.  He had a heated feud with commentator and hall of fame jockey Eddie Arcaro.

 

Pleasant Colony was a heavy favorite to win the Triple Crown, but a horse named Summing held off his late charge.  Pleasant Colony finished third, and Campo took his medicine but was gracious in defeat.

 

So here we are in 2008.  Big Brown has impressively won all of his prior races.  Trainer Rick Dutrow has been almost as controversial and loudmouthed as Delp and Campo.  Big Brown has suffered an injury that led to the possibility that he might not run.  However, after the now infamous quarter crack has supposedly healed, he has been deemed well enough to run.  Following a seemingly excellent workout at the track, all is apparently well with the newest “greatest horse of all time.”

 

Wednesday morning’s Belmont draw found the big favorite assigned to the number one post.  That’s not where Dutrow wanted his phenom to break.  To make matters worse, the chief rival, Casino Drive, drew the fifth post that Dutrow was hoping for.  To make matters even worse, the horse that drew the second post is a maiden who really doesn’t belong in this race.  All the cards are stacked against Big Brown.  At his current 2-5 odds, there is no value whatsoever in putting two bucks on him to win $2.80.

 

So, let’s take a look at the field and try to find value elsewhere.

   

 

The Horses

 

1-Big Brown: Morning Line Odds- 2-5/Jockey- Kent Desormeaux/Trainer- Rick Dutrow, Jr.

Most of the horse-racing fans throughout the world will be pulling for Big Brown to win the Triple Crown, and I will predict the bettors at Belmont Park and elsewhere will drive his odds down below the current 2-5.  The odds could even go to 1-10 by post time.  Many people will purchase two dollar tickets and hold them with the hopes that a never cashed ticket of a Triple Crown winner might one day be worth several times more than the $2.20 for which it could be cashed around 6:30 PM Saturday night.  As I have explained herein, I am not one for sentiment.  While I agree he is a super horse win or lose this race, I am not risking capital for such a small return.  He might win with ease, and he might do it in a manner similar to Secretariat, but $2.20 is just not enough reward here.  Horses can lose a race due to many factors beyond their jockey’s control.  All it takes is a little stumble, a bumping from another horse, or jockey’s error, and the greatest horses can be upset.  Kent Desormeaux has stated on record that he erred when he rode Real Quiet in the 1998 Belmont and narrowly lost a Triple Crown bid.  He took Real Quiet to the lead too early and vows not to do the same with Big Brown.  There is a possibility he could overcompensate and go for the lead too late.  We’ll have to wait and see, but there are place and show bets that will return far more money than $2.20 if Big Brown wins the race.

 

2-Guadalcanal: Morning Line Odds- 50-1/Jockey- Javier Castellano/Trainer- Fred Seitz

This horse has already run a race of 1 ½ miles, albeit on turf.  That’s the only good thing to say about him.  He is a maiden, and maidens don’t finish in the money in Triple Crown races.  He is a notorious slow starter coming out of the gate, and he has a history of getting involved with another horse in a bumping contest.  If he bumps Big Brown at the start, it could be the bump heard around the world.  He’s clearly out of his class here, and I wouldn’t consider him.

 

3-Macho Again: Morning Line Odds- 20-1/Jockey- Garrett Gomez/Trainer- Dallas Stewart

When was the last time the second place horse in the Preakness was 20-1 in the Belmont Morning Line?  Now, take into consideration that this horse gained in the stretch on Big Brown, and even though Big Brown was not asked to run all out, none of the other horses in the race gained 1¾ lengths.  New jockey Garrett Gomez should get a great trip coming out of the third post.  Look for Macho Again to make a game effort and possibly take the lead at some point after six furlongs.  Whether he can hold off a charge from two excellent horses, I don’t know, but he has as strong a chance of finishing third as any of the other contenders.  I’d highly consider putting Macho Again in your show betting and as part of your exacta and trifectas.

 

4-Denis of Cork: Morning Line Odds- 12-1/Jockey- Robby Albarado/Trainer- David Carroll

Here is a horse whose past performances scream for inclusion in some form of your wagers.  He will be racing on five weeks rest.  His pedigree screams for him to run at longer distances.  He only needs a hot pace to be considered a serious contender to hit the board and possibly pull off a big upset.  I’m not sure we’re going to see the opening quarter in less than 23 and change and the opening half in less than 46 and change.  It may be tough for him to make that one huge run in the final furlong and get a piece of the pot.  Still, you have to give him strong consideration in your wagering.

 

5-Casino Drive: Morning Line Odds-7-2/Jockey-Edgar Prado/Trainer-Kazuo Fujisawa

If this were a Western movie, this horse would come to the track with jockey Edgar Prado wearing the black hat.  Prado has already played the role of spoiler twice before, when he rode Sarava and Birdstone to upset wins in the Belmont, preventing War Emblem and Smarty Jones from winning the Triple Crown.  He has a stronger horse in this race than he had when he pulled off those upsets.  In the Peter Pan Stakes, Casino Drive ran the type of race that Big Brown likes to run.  He relaxed into a nice stalking position about two lengths off the pace and then made one tremendous move in the final quarter, running away from the field.  The one real weakness this horse has is little experience.  This will be just his third race.  Both of his previous races were at 1 1/8 miles, and there is no hard evidence that this horse can go 12 furlongs.  Still, he earned a 101 Beyer Speed Rating for his Peter Pan win, while Big Brown earned a 100 in the Preakness.  His odds may be as low as 5-2 by post time, but if they move to 4-1 or more, he becomes a value play.  Betting Big Brown and Casino Drive in a cold exacta may return little more than bus fare.  

 

 

6-Da’ Tara: Morning Line Odds- 30-1/Jockey-Alan Garcia/Trainer-Nick Zito

I don’t wager on horses with only a maiden win in their history in Triple Crown races.  Da’Tara broke his maiden in January at Gulfstream Park, finished third in a cheap allowance race, and then finished well back in the Florida Derby.  He is better than Guadalcanal, but that’s not saying much.

 

 

7-Tale of Ekati: Morning Line Odds-20-1/Jockey-Eibar Coa/Trainer-Barclay Tagg

I suspect this horse will eventually prove to be a capable sprinter.  I don’t believe distance racing is his strong point.  In the Louisiana and Kentucky Derbies, he was close to the lead entering the home stretch and faded.  He won the Wood Memorial when the opening fractions were ridiculously fast.  This won’t happen in the Belmont, and this horse will be forced to make his move at the same time Big Brown and Casino Drive make their move.  He’ll be left behind.

 

 

 

This horse has done absolutely nothing this year after looking strong as a two year old.  His four 2008 races resulted in finishes of eighth, seventh, fifth, and seventh.  I’d toss this one out, unless you plan on playing several long shots in your exotic wagers. 

8-Anak Nakal: Morning Line Odds- 30-1/Jockey- Julien Leparoux/Trainer- Nick Zito

9-Ready’s Echo: Morning Line Odds- 30-1/Jockey- John Velazquez/Trainer- Todd Pletcher

We have yet another horse eligible to race in no victories other than maiden allowance races, so he is supposed to be automatically tossed out.  He won’t win the race and won’t get any win wagers placed by me, but he just may be strong enough to contend for finishing in the money.  Ready’s Echo ran in the Peter Pan against Casino Drive, and while he finished 6¼ lengths back in third, he basically ran even with him in the final two calls after making up several lengths earlier in the race.  This horse has some intriguing factors working in his favor.  He should like the long distance, and he should be considered in your place, show, and exotic wagers.

 

10-Icabad Crane: Morning Line Odds- 20-1/Jockey-Jeremy Rose/Trainer- H. Graham Motion

He finished third in the Preakness and made up 1 ¼ lengths only after Big Brown wasn’t pushed in the final 220 yards.  Yet another stretch running horse who likes to come from off the pace, he should be forced to go wide when he makes his move.  He cannot afford to be more than three wide and have any chance to pass enough horses to hit the board.  I’ll pass on him.

 

My $100 Mythical Wager

 

I am not wagering at all on Big Brown in this race.  I am looking for better value.  I am also going to lay off Casino Drive, because I think Prado will go for the lead earlier than he can afford to do so, and Casino Drive will run out of gas and/or his odds will not be high enough for there to be betting value. 

 

On the other hand, I am not about to pick another horse to win this race.  I’m looking for long shots to hit the board in the second and third place slots.  At least one long shot is guaranteed to hit the board because there are just two low-priced horses in the race as of late Thursday night when I write this story.

 

There are three horses I like in this betting strategy—Macho Again, Denis of Cork and Ready’s Echo.  I like Macho Again and Ready’s Echo a little more than Denis of Cork, so here is how I am playing the Belmont.  I am putting $20 on Macho Again and Ready’s Echo to both place and show (4 wagers) and $20 on Denis of Cork to show.  I decided to avoid the exotics due to the high take on exotics at Belmont Park.  These wagers are still a bit risky, as I will need two of these horses to finish in the money in order to make a profit.  I think I have the three top long shots though, and I like my chances of two of them finishing in the money, if Casino Drive proves not to be up for the distance.   

 

The PiRate Team Makes Their Mythical $100 Wagers

 

Because I have to compose this story a day earlier than normal due to travel considerations, I had to ask my band of experts to submit their ideas a day earlier than normal as well.  Not all of them could participate this time, and the three who did could only submit their betting choices without commentary.  Here is how they see the race.

 

Walker Jones picks Big Brown, Casino Drive, and Ready’s Echo in that order.  His $100 wager includes a $60 exacta straight on Big Brown on top of Casino Drive; a $20 Trifecta with Big Brown on top of Casino Drive and Ready’s Echo; and a $20 Trifecta with Big Brown on top of Ready’s Echo and Casino Drive.

 

Wesley Kahnert picks Big Brown, Casino Drive, and Tale of Ekati to finish one-two-three.  His $100 wager includes $10 on Big Brown on top of each of the other nine horses and $2 each on Big Brown on top of Casino Drive and these five horses in a trifecta: Macho Again, Ready’s Echo, Denis of Cork, Icabad Crane, and Anak Nakal.

 

Boulder Bob picks a huge upset in this race.  He picks Ready’s Echo to win with Big Brown second and Da’Tara third.  His $100 wager includes $20 on Ready’s Echo to win, $30 on Ready’s Echo to place, and $50 on Ready’s Echo to show.

May 16, 2008

A PiRate Look At the 2008 Preakness Stakes

A PiRate Extra

Preakness Stakes 133

17-May-2008

Pimlico Race Course-Baltimore

Approximately 6:15 PM EDT

Television: NBC (Tom Durkin Calling the Race)

Radio: Premiere Radio Networks (Dave Johnson Calling the Race)

Forecast Weather at Post-Time: Mostly Cloudy & Low 70s

 

Meet the new super horse.  Big Brown overcame historical odds of coming from post 20 and being too lightly raced to make the Kentucky Derby look like a contest between the Boston Red Sox and Portland Sea Dogs.  Immediately following the race, he had been awarded the honor of becoming a sure thing for the Triple Crown. 

 

Now, let’s recount all the Triple Crown winners in the last 30 years.  Oops, there haven’t been any.  Spectacular Bid was 1-9 when he lost in the Belmont.  You couldn’t ask for a more prohibitive favorite.  Pleasant Colony pulled off two exciting victories and went off as the favorite in the Belmont and finished third.  Alysheba edged Bet Twice two times before seeing his rival dust him in New York.  Sunday Silence and Easy Goer repeated the Alysheba-Bet Twice challenge a few years later.  Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Charismatic entered their Belmonts as favorites to take the Crown and all three just missed.  Ditto War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones.

 

Yes, there have been numerous super horses since Affirmed last won the Triple Crown in 1978.  They won the first two legs, but missed out three weeks later.  Now, add Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos, Unbridled, and Swale to the list.  These four looked every bit as impressive as Big Brown when they earned their roses at Churchill Downs, and they failed to deliver in the Preakness.

 

Big Brown may very well be the next Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Citation, Count Fleet, or Whirlaway, but he could also be the next Smarty Jones or even Fu Peg.  That is what makes handicapping so much fun and intriguing.

 

The one sure thing in this race is that Big Brown’s odds have opened at 1-2, and I would guess by post-time, they will be even stronger (at least 2-5 and maybe 1-3 or 1-4).

 

Here are the current odds for the race as of Friday morning.  Since Behindthebar was scratched a half hour ago from the time of this writing, new morning line odds have yet to be issued.  Behindthebar figured to be the strongest Big Brown Rival, and now the presumptive super horse has little competition.

 

PP.       Horse                           Odds               Jockey                         Trainer

  1        Macho Again              20-1                 Julien Leparoux           Dallas Stewart

  2        Tres Borrachos            30-1                 Tyler Baze                   Beau Greely

  3        Icabad Crane               30-1                 Jeremy Rose                Graham Motion

  4        Yankee Bravo             15-1                 Alex Solis                    Patrick Gallagher

  5        Behindthebar              SCR               

  6        Racecar Rhapsody      30-1                 Robby Albarado         Ken McPeek

  7        Big Brown                    1-2                 Kent Desormeaux       Richard Dutrow

  8        Kentucky Bear            15-1                 Jamie Theriot               Reade Baker

  9        Stevil                           30-1                 John Velazquez           Nick Zito

10        Riley Tucker                30-1                 Edgar Prado                Bill Mott

11        Giant Moon                 30-1                 Ramon Dominguez     Richard Schosberg

12        Gayego                          8-1                 Mike Smith                 Paulo Lobo

13        Hey Byrn                    20-1                 Charles Lopez             Eddie Plesa

 

Breakdown of the Field

 

1-Macho Again

This horse won the Derby Trial three weeks ago and recorded a personal best Beyer Speed Figure of 99.  That race was 7 ½ furlongs around one turn.  Macho Again has raced 1 1/8 mile just once and finished a distant seventh in the Lane’s End.  He was bumped coming out of the gate, but that didn’t prevent him from performing so poorly in the final 2 furlongs.  What you have here is a decent sprint horse that comes from off the pace.  Look for him to make a move on the backstretch but have nothing left in the tank going into the turn.  I expect him to finish well back.

 

2-Tres Borrachos

Here is an improving horse.  His speed figures have improved with each race, and he has raced much faster on dirt than on polytrack.  He set the pace at the Arkansas Derby, appeared to tire from setting too fast of a pace, and then he passed another fading horse to finish third.  If Big Brown runs an average race, Tres Borrachos will not finish within five lengths of him.  If Big Brown doesn’t show up, then this rested horse will be a factor in the race.  He stands a decent chance of hitting the board.

 

3-Icabad Crane

This horse won at Pimlico on April 19 in the Federico Tesio over a very weak field.  He came from off the pace to win in the stretch, and he should be passing horses tomorrow.  If the pace is overly fast, it will be to his advantage, but Tesio had a slow pace, and he still passed the speed horses who tried to cheat from the front.  He should be considered in any exotics.

 

4-Yankee Bravo

This horse is similar to Macho Again.  He could fade in the final 1/8, and he could fade more than Macho Again.  However, he could be closer to the lead when he begins to fade.  He won the California Derby and another minor stakes race, but he has finished third and fourth in his two graded stakes races.  If you think he will hit the board, then you should be putting something on Macho Again as well.

 

6-Racecar Rhapsody

I make it a habit never to wager on horses running in grade 1 stakes and still eligible to be running in non-winners of one other than maiden allowance races.  This horse has one lifetime victory, and that was last October.  However, it may be time for an exception, as this horse has good enough speed to challenge for the lead tomorrow.  He may be in last place for the first ¾ mile, but he has one huge kick that could propel him by the field into second place.  Still, he’s not for me.

 

7-Big Brown

There is only one horse in the field that has recorded a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure.  Big Brown has done it three times in a row.  In his only other race, his first one ever, he ran a 90 BSF, but he won that one by more than 11 lengths!  How can he possibly lose this race?  Unfortunately, accidents happen, and he could stumble or throw his jockey, or veer out wide after being spooked.  Then again, his problem from feet and his jockey’s desire to give him five weeks off between starts could be more important than most people think.

 

I expect him to bounce this week.  He won’t be able to run the type of race we saw in the Kentucky and Florida Derbies.  On the other hand, there will be no Colonel John, Pyro, or Smooth Air in this field.  His top challenger has scratched.  I don’t expect him to lose unless he stumbles or throws his jockey.  He should be able to rate from just off the lead and then run away from the field at the mile pole.  I expect to see a slower time because Desormeaux may never have to go to the whip.  Why try to run a 1:53.4 when he can probably win at 1:55?

 

The problem with wagering on such a prohibitive favorite is the return is not worth the small risk.  More people at PRC may purchase a $2 ticket to win and never cash it, hoping the assessed value of the ticket one day becomes valuable.  Does anyone care to buy a set of uncashed winning tickets to the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont stakes?  That $6 investment in Secretariat fetched $5,000 for one smart investor.  

 

As if he needs any extra benefit, Big Brown will now break from post number six, the post that has produced the most career Preakness wins.

 

8-Kentucky Bear

Throw out a horrible run in the Fountain of Youth, and this horse looked good in his other two career starts.  We are trying to locate the number two horse in this race, and Kentucky Bear has to be included in the argument.  In the Bluegrass, he was caught nine wide and lost a lot of ground, yet he rallied for third and was closing the entire time.  In his first time out, he exploded in the stretch and ran away from all challengers.  He should post a Beyer Speed Figure in the 90-95 range, and that just may be good enough to finish in the money.  It helps that he appears to like this track when it is fast, and the track should be fast for the race.

 

9-Stevil

Kentucky Bear was nine wide in the Bluegrass, but this horse was 12 wide!  He made up 3½ lengths, so he has to be coupled with Kentucky Bear if you think Kentucky Bear has a chance in the Preakness.  The difference in my opinion is that Kentucky Bear is better suited for staying for 9½ furlongs.  Stevil is still eligible for 1X Allowance Races, so I don’t expect victory number two to come in the Preakness nor do I expect him to finish second.

 

10-Riley Tucker

We have yet another horse with one career win, but this one ran a 96 Beyer in the Lexington Stakes in his most recent race.  That was good enough for third.  It also represented a huge jump forward.  I expect him to regress toward the mean in this race, and that means a fifth to last place finish.

 

11-Giant Moon

If you are looking for a live long shot, look no further.  This horse has the credentials to shock the world if Big Brown falters, and he should hit the board.  Throw out a race where he was racing in the slop and with fog too thick for the track announcer to see in the Gotham Stakes.  He was caught tight in the rail, and his jockey Ramon Dominguez had little choice but to ride the rail through the fog.  Except for that race, you have a consistent better than average improving horse.  At 30-1, he looks quite enticing.  If those odds go south, then he becomes a great overlay.

 

12-Gayego

Gayego is the only challenger from the Kentucky Derby returning for more of Big Brown.  He’s also the only other horse in the field with a triple digit Beyer figure, earning a pair of them.  He never figured in the Derby, and we did not see his potential two weeks ago.  I don’t expect him to return to form in two weeks.  If he was a long shot, I might consider wagering something on him, but he figures to go off as the second betting choice.  I won’t be using him in my picks.

 

13-Hey Byrn

He’s the only horse to have won at 9 ½ furlongs in this race, which means little or nothing to me.  He finished more than 15 lengths behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby, and you have to ask if he finishes 15 lengths back in the Preakness if that will be good enough to hit the board.  I don’t think so.

 

My Call of the Race

 

The horses are all in the gate, and they’re off.  Breaking sharply and taking the early lead is Giant Moon with Tres Borrachos, Big Brown, and Hey Byrn right there with him.  Gayego is just behind the leaders, and then there’s a gap back to Macho Again and Kentucky Bear.  Stevil and Riley Tucker are 3 and 4 wide to the outside and then there’s a gap back to Yankee Bravo.  Icabad Crane is 11th,  and the trailer is Racecar Rhapsody as the horses head into the first turn. 

 

They’re in the turn, and it’s Giant Moon with a ½ length lead over Tres Borrachos.  Big Brown is well-placed in third and Gayego is fourth a length back.  Hey Byrn is just behind in fifth, and three lengths separate him from the logjam in back.  Macho Again has been saving ground on the rail, with Kentucky Bear running to his side.  Stevil and Riley Tucker are still wide of Kentucky Bear and then there’s a gap of two lengths back to Yankee Bravo with Icabad Crane and Racecar Rhapsody not being asked to run. 

 

The opening quarter was a slow 23 and 8 tenths.  As they head down the backstretch, Tres Borrachos has moved a nose ahead of Giant Moon.  Big Brown is running comfortably in third and Gayego is beginning to move closer to the leaders.  Hey Byrn is still in fifth but Macho Again and Kentucky Bear are closing in on him. 

 

They race down the backstretch and the half goes in a pedestrian 47 and 2 tenths.  Gayego is making a move and he’s closing in on the lead and neck and neck with Big Brown.  Tres Borrachos is beginning to tire and Giant Moon has the lead.  And there goes Big Brown.  He’s going for the lead, and he has it right now.  Giant Moon is in second, and Gayego has a bead on him.  Hey Byrn and Tres Borrachos are tiring, and Macho Again has passed them both.  Kentucky Bear makes his move and he’s going to the outside of Macho Again.  Racecar Rhapsody is flying and has made a move to get into eighth.

 

As they approach the final turn, it’s Big Brown opening a two and a half length lead.  Gayego has moved into second and may be gaining ground on Big Brown.  Giant Moon is third and there’s a gap of two back to Macho Again, Kentucky Bear, and Racecar Rhapsody.

 

As they turn for home, it’s all Big Brown.  He’s opened a four length lead over Gayego with Giant Moon gaining on him in third.  Kentucky Bear and Macho Again are hooked up in a duel for fourth with Racecar Rhapsody still there in sixth.  Yankee Bravo is making his move, but it is too late.

 

In the deep stretch, it’s all Big Brown by four and a half lengths.  He’s going to cross the finish line and win the 113th Preakness Stakes.  Kentucky Bear closes strong for second with Giant Moon holding on for third.  There’s a photo for fourth between Gayego and Macho Again.

 

My $100 Mythical Wager

 

You hear that there’s no value in putting $100 on Big Brown to win at 1-2 odds at best.  I beg to differ if you think he has a 75% chance of winning this race.  Where else can you get a 50% return on your investment in just two minutes?  Think about this.  Let’s say you invested $100 on a stock at 9:30 AM Monday.  How many will give you a chance to sell at $150 at 9:32 after all commissions have been paid.  You’d be lucky to find a stock that will return 50% in a year, and more realistically, you would happily settle for a 50% return after three years.

 

On the other hand, betting $100 on Big Brown to win is like routing for the 1927 New York Yankees to beat the St. Louis Browns.  I’m guessing there will be more money in the exotic pool for than any other this decade.  Even when Barbaro won the Derby so convincingly two years ago, he wasn’t nearly as heavy a favorite as Big Brown is going to be (mostly because there was still some class in Preakness 101).  Big Brown has chased away all the other class horses, and what we are left with is something akin to when the great Boxer Joe Louis defeated Primo Carnera and Max Baer.  Once he was the heavyweight champion, there weren’t any top-class contenders left, and those poor saps who went down hard were said to be members of “the bum of the month club.”  It’s fitting that Louis was the Brown Bomber, a nickname that could aptly apply to Big Brown.

 

So, I am going to take half of my $100 and go with what looks like a sure thing.  Then, I am going to take my “sure thing” and use it in the exotics.

 

$50 on Big Brown to win

 

$4 Exacta Partial Wheel with Big Brown keyed over Giant Moon, Kentucky Bear, Gayego, Macho Again, and Racecar Rhapsody ($20 total in the wheel)

 

$1 Trifecta Partial Wheel with Big Brown keyed over Giant Moon, Kentucky Bear, and Gayego over the field (30 separate $1 wagers)

 

The Real Experts

 

Two weeks ago, I introduced you to a group of friends who are much better at this than me.  Three of them proved their worth and picked winning wagers for you, while my return lost all of its $100 investment.  All three of those experts are back to offer their sage advice.  This week, one new expert will supply his genius to the race.  He would have contributed for the Derby blog, but he was working as a journalist at Churchill Downs and wrote an excellent, albeit sad story on the filly Eight Belles.

 

Note: The experts all submitted their selections prior to Behindthebar scratching.  I contacted Wes K so that he could alter his pick after the announcement.

 

Walker Jones

Fool me once….Big Brown convinced me he’s a horse for the ages so I’m certainly not going to try to beat him in this spot.  He obviously offers no value in the win pool and if he comes in first or second he will kill the place and show pools so I’ll take a stab at the exotics.  Before outlining my wagers I pick the race as follows:

 

1) Big Brown

2) Tres Borrachos

3) Racecar Rhapsody

 

Tres Borrachos is bred for the classic distances and has tried hard in all of his races and is improving.  He was headed in the Ark Derby and fought back for the show.  He may get an easy lead and should hang tough in the stretch even if Big Brown goes by him.  Racecar Rhapsody is also bred to easily handle the 1 3/16 distance and is a deep closer.  He should be flying late.  Both Tres Borrachos and Racecar Rhapsody have run their races no matter what the surface as opposed to others like Behindatthebar who may prefer a synthetic track.

 

I will bet my $100 as follows….

 

$30 exacta Big Brown on top of Tres Borrachos/Racecar Rhapsody = $60

$20 trifecta Big Brown to win with TB & RR second and third = $40

 

Wesley Kahnert

 

I’ll stick with the winning formula I had in the Derby.  I may not be ready to give him the Triple Crown, because the Belmont is torturous on horses not ready to run 1 ½ miles on three weeks notice, but I cannot see any horse coming within 10 lengths of Big Brown.  Half of the remaining dozen can finish second in this race and almost all of them have a chance for third.  The luck of the draw says that one of the two horses in the field will be a nice long shot. 

 

I’m taking $100 on Big Brown in a trifecta with the entire field in the second and third positions.  (Editor’s note: That means $1 each on Big Brown over the field over the field for 100 separate wagers.  If Big Brown wins, Wes automatically wins the trifecta).

 

Randy Moss’s Protégé  (Note: This person has no affiliation with Randy Moss other than being a devout follower of Moss’s Pace Figures).

 

Big Brown ran a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Derby, and if you look at the pace and how much extra he had to run in the race, he ran the equivalent of a 115 to 120.  If you follow the Thorograph sheets, you will see that they consider Big Brown’s Derby to be up there among the top Derby finishes ever.  I agree that we are looking at the next Secretariat.  I don’t think the short layoff will hurt Big Brown.  As long as his front legs are okay, he will run the same race Saturday that he ran two weeks ago.  Richard Dutrow is acting like the coach who builds up his opponent, so when his team wins 42-0, it looks like an accomplishment.  Expect 42-0 in this horse race.  His winning silks will already be painted on the weather vane before the second place horse crosses the finish line.

 

I’ll put $20 on Big Brown to win, $20 on Big Brown to show because his show pool money may be even better than his win pool money if few people bet him to show.

 

With the other $60, I will play an Exacta partial wheel with Big Brown keyed over the six longest shots: Tres Borrachos, Icabad Crane, Racecar Rhapsody, Stevil, Riley Tucker, and Giant Moon at $10 apiece.

 

Bill Marhsall

 

William goes by the handle of Class of Clyde in the Vanderbilt University Athletics Internet world.  He is a veteran of thoroughbred racing, and he was in Louisville to report on the Derby for the Aiken, South Carolina newspaper.

 

“Sure Things at Pimlico”

 

One thing can be said with confidence about the Preakness – when the result is in, it’s even money it won’t make sense.  For every Preakness that plays according to form, there’s one that throws form out the window.  So there’s hope for those seeking the winner of this Preakness elsewhere than the obvious.  And without question, the obvious is Big Brown.

 

While there have been no big upsets since the turn of the century, not many expected 3-10 favorite Fusaichi Pegasus to lose his bid for the Black-Eyed Susans in ’00.  But he did – to Red Bullet, which he had beaten in the Wood Memorial.  The very next year, Monarchos wheeled in to Baltimore from Louisville having recorded the second fastest winning time in the history of the Kentucky Derby.  Point Given was the “hot horse” that year, but few would have predicted that, of the five Derby runners returning for the Preakness, Monarchos would finish last.

 

In the ‘90s, we saw Louis Quatorze, 16th in the Derby, win the Preakness handily.  There was Pine Bluff, 5th in Louisville leaving that spot available for the Derby winner, Lil E. Tee, at Pimlico.  Hansel, 10th in the Derby galloped home 7 lengths ahead of his Preakness field, including the first three from the ’91 Derby.

 

On the flip side, 6 of the last 11 Preakness winners were keeping a Triple Crown bid alive, having also won the Derby.

 

This year, we have another sure thing in Big Brown, with only one Derby rival, Gayego, showing up for a rematch.  Almost half the field (5 starters) are eligible for non-winners of two lifetime.  No doubt, Big Brown should walk his beat.  But no less so than Riva Ridge and Swale, both compromised by sloppy tracks, or Bold Forbes, done in by a suicidal pace, or Strike the Gold and Sea Hero, well beaten for no apparent reason.

 

Big Brown may win from here to there, but remember, there are no sure things in horse racing.

******************************************************************************************************************************************************

All the above being said, I think Big Brown will win this Preakness.  The only way I see to bet it is to try to pick the second horse and make exactas.  Trifectas cost too much with the synthetic variable on top of too few starts and too little consistency among the rest of the field.  I liked Macho Again’s Derby Trial in which he beat some decent horses on the dirt from off the pace.  I thought Yankee Bravo ran well in the Louisiana Derby and was intimidated when lodging his bid in the Santa Anita Derby by a swerving Bob Black Jack.  Racecar Rhapsody has never run a truly bad race and, being a dead closer, might come along to pick up the pieces.  With $100, I’d make $20 cold exactas with Big Brown on top of these three and $10 exactas with Big Brown beneath these three.  With the remaining $10, I’d do a $2 box using Macho Again with both Yankee Bravo and Racecar Rhapsody, and use the last $2 for a cold exacta, Yankee Bravo on top of Racecar Rhapsody.  

 

May 3, 2008

Kentucky Derby Wrap-Up

Congratulations to Wesley, Walker, and “Randy” for their profitable days at Churchill Downs Saturday afternoon.

 

Wesley played his $100 bankroll on Big Brown to win, and that wager returned $340.  Walker cashed winning tickets on Eight Belles to place and show, and it returned $170.  “Randy” hit the exacta with Big Brown and Eight Belles returning $141.60.

 

Jeannie’s $100 wagers returned just $6.40, as she had $2 on Eight Belles to show.  As for Bob and me, we didn’t cash any winning tickets.

 

Of course, I can speak for all six of us when we express our condolences on the death of the filly Eight Belles.  With Barbaro breaking down two years ago in the Preakness, the horse racing industry now has two tragedies in three years, both of which occurred when the sport was showcasing its greatest moments.

 

If there ever was a year for the three decade long triple crown drought to end, this one needs to happen.  Big Brown won the Derby in such convincing fashion, it’s hard to foresee huge fields challenging him in Baltimore in two weeks.  If he romps at Pimlico, this could be the smallest Belmont field in years. 

 

Big Brown went four wide into the first turn after having to veer in from the 20th post position.  He had to stalk for the first time in his life, and he never got close to the rail until the final stretch.  He, in essence, would have won by 10 or more lengths had he been able to get out in front and inside early.  With the tragic loss of Eight Belles, the closest competitor to him who could make it to the Preakness was Denis of Cork, who was eight lengths back; using the same logic as above, Big Brown beat him by about 12-15 lengths.

 

If he comes to Baltimore in complete health, Big Brown could go off as a 1-5 favorite.  With a better post draw, he could wire the field at Pimlico.  If he wins there, he will be the shortest favorite to attempt the Triple Crown since Spectacular Bid in 1979.  Of course, the Bid failed to win that Belmont, so remember a sure thing this is not.

May 2, 2008

A PiRate Look at the 2008 Kentucky Derby

A PiRate Extra

Kentucky Derby 134

03-May-2008

Churchill Downs-Louisville

Approximately 6:04 PM EDT

Television: NBC

Radio: ESPN

 

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings.  Today, it’s time to take an in-depth look at the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  In past years, I have been fortunate to have predicted a few winners and cashed several winning tickets.  Last year was one of those fortunate years, as Street Sense came in first as I predicted.  This year, I have very little confidence that any handicapper can feel confident.  With the change to Polytrack racing surfaces in several of the most important prep races, nobody can know for sure how horses racing on dirt for the first time this year will adjust.

 

The Daily Racing Form’s speed expert, Andrew Beyer, summed it up best when he commented a couple of days ago, “Judging how horses will make the transition from Poly to dirt is guesswork, not handicapping.”  I agree with Beyer, and if the Thoroughbred Racing Association doesn’t address this issue soon and decide on one type of track only, you will see a reduction in the number of serious people willing to wager on big races like this.  The industry can ill-afford to lose any more customers.

 

In today’s preview, I am going to introduce 5 additional experts to the PiRatings.  Three of them either own or have owned racing thoroughbreds.  One is a successful handicapper who has won two pick sixes in his lifetime.  The fifth is a huge fan who will be making her 28th trip to the Derby and has been a regular at the famous Barnstable Brown Party.  All six of us will report on how we would spend $100 on this race if we were at the Churchill Downs betting window.

 

Let’s start off this preview in earnest with a look at the field.  Odds given are the current odds as of Friday morning.

 

PP. Horse                         Odds            Jockey                             Trainer

  1. Cool Coal Man             20-1             Julien Leparoux       Nick Zito

  2. Tale of Ekati               15-1             Eibar Coa               Barclay Tagg

  3. Anak Nakal                 30-1             Raphael Bejarano    Nick Zito

  4. Court Vision                20-1             Garrett Gomez        Bill Mott

  5. Eight Belles                 20-1             Gabriel Saez           Larry Jones

  6. Z Fortune                   15-1             Robby Albarado      Steve Asmussen

  7. Big Truck                    50-1             Javier Castellano     Barclay Tagg

  8. Visionaire                   20-1             Jose Lezcano          Michael Matz

  9. Pyro                             6-1            Shaun Bridgmohan  Steve Asmussen

10. Colonel John                 4-1            Corey Nakatani       Eoin Harty

11. Z Humor                     30-1             Rene Douglas          Bill Mott

12. Smooth Air                 20-1             Manoel Cruz            Bennie Stutts, Jr.

13. Bob Black Jack             20-1             Richard Migliore      James Kasparoff

14. Monba                        15-1             Ramon Dominguez  Todd Pletcher

15. Adriano                      30-1             Edgar Prado           Graham Motion

16. Denis of Cork              20-1             Calvin Borel            David Carroll

17. Cowboy Cal                20-1             John Velazquez       Todd Pletcher

18. Recapturetheglory       20-1             E.T. Baird               Louie Roussel

19. Gayego                      15-1             Mike Smith             Paulo Lobo

20. Big Brown                    3-1            Kent Desormeaux    Richard Dutrow, Jr.

 

The Major Prep Races

 

Wood Memorial: Tale of Ekati passed favored War Pass in the final 1/8 mile.  Court Vision came in third.

 

Blue Grass Stakes: Monba went 6 wide and came from off the pace to edge Cowboy Cal by a neck.  Favored Pyro never figured in this race and finished a distant 10th.  Keeneland uses a polytrack surface.

 

Santa Anita Derby: Colonel John rallied from 9th at the ¾ pole and edged Bob Black Jack.  Santa Anita is now a polytrack surface.

 

Florida Derby: Big Brown went immediately to the lead in a very fast opening quarter and slowly gained ground as his opponents slowed in the final furlong and winning by 5f over Smooth Air.  This marked the second time in three attempts for Big Brown to wire the field, and in the other race, he was never more than one length back of the lead.

 

Arkansas Derby: Gayego stalked from second place for the opening ½ and then took the lead prior to the ¾ pole.  He held off a challenge from the closing Z Fortune, who made up 5 lengths in the stretch.

 

Illinois Derby: Recapturetheglory wired the field in race that equaled the best time at 1 1/8 mile at Hawthorne in the last three years.  He pulled away in the stretch showing that he had plenty of run in him.  Z Humor remained in 3rd position for the entire race, but he lost ground in the final 5/8 mile.

 

Lanes End: Adriano went 4 wide around the stretch and came from off the pace to pull away in the final 1/16 mile.  Turfway Park uses a polytrack surface.

 

Fantasy Stakes: Eight Belles closed fast in the stretch to pass Alina in the final 70 yards and take this race for fillies at Oaklawn Park.

 

Breakdown of the Field

 

1- Cool Coal Man: He won an allowance race at Churchill Downs in November, and many will bet on him for that fact alone.  In graded stakes races, he won the Fountain of Youth, but then he finished 9th in the Blue Grass.  Nick Zito brought him to CD where he breezed ½ mile in 47.2.  He may like the track, but he is an early speed horse with better speed horses in the race.  Look for him to vie for the lead for the opening mile, but he will be passed in the final 2 furlongs.  I don’t look for him to finish in the money.

 

2- Tale of Ekati: Winning the Wood Memorial over War Pass should have made him a strong contender here, but his odds are 15-1!  His jockey in that race, Edgar Prado, chose to ride Adriano, so that doesn’t bode well for this colt.  At least Eibar Coa has ridden him before, and he won one of those races.  Coa will try to stalk from the second flight of horses and then make one big run at the head of the stretch.  I just don’t think he has the stamina to go 10 furlongs, and I think he will quit in the stretch.  He’s trained by Barclay Tagg, who gave us a near triple crown with Funny Cide.

 

3- Anak Nakal: If this horse won, it would have to rank as one of the five biggest upsets in Derby history.  In his three races this year, he finished 8th in the Fountain of Youth, 7th in the Rebel, and 5th in the Wood.  Except for his maiden win, his only other win came against a weak field in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs last year.  Even though he is an improving colt, I cannot see him challenging Saturday.  His fasted Beyer speed is 87, and it takes a 104-110 to win this race in most years.

 

4- Court Vision: This horse has an excellent pedigree that couldn’t be any more Kentucky Derby favorable.  He’s a deep closer, and he will be flying past horses in the stretch.  In a field of 20, jockey Garrett Gomez will be hard-pressed not to be checked a couple of times.  I don’t see him being able to get the perfect trip he will need to be a factor.  With a top Beyer of 90, we have the same dilemma as with Anak Nakal-he doesn’t have enough speed to stay close enough to the lead to let that one burst carry him past the field.

 

5- Eight Belles:  This filly would have been close to an even money favorite in the Oaks, but trainer Larry Jones decided to go for the roses.  I think she will finish far up the track and never figure in this race.  Eight Belles has won four consecutive races this year, but she hasn’t raced against Colts.  She’s faced weak competition, hasn’t raced in a field larger than eight, and has never raced farther than 1 1/16 mile.  The odds are too stacked against her.  Look for her to finish well back in the pack.

 

6- Z Fortune: He was forced 4 wide in the Arkansas Derby and still finished a game second, earning a 102 Beyer number.  Although he drew an excellent post, he figures to be left behind in the opening ½ mile.  I don’t think he has enough closing kick to pass at least a dozen horses in the final 3/8, and I expect him to have at least that many to pass.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit the board, and at 15-1 odds, he should pay well to show or in exotics.

 

7- Big Truck: Like Pyro, he couldn’t handle the polytrack surface at Keeneland and finished a distant 11th.  He won the Tampa Bay Derby by coming from off the pace against 1-20 favorite War Pass.  Former rider Eibar Coa chose to ride Barclay Tagg’s other horse, Tale of Ekati.  I don’t see him factoring in the race.

 

8- Visionaire: The winner of the Gotham at Aqueduct in March, he was forced 10 wide in the Bluegrass and while making a move from last place in the stretch, he finished 5th.  He is a stretch runner who can fly in the final furlong, and he should have no problem with the distance.  Passing 19 horses is tough, and a couple other stretch runners could be flying at the same time.  If the truck comes up muddy, expect to see his odds drop in free-fall.  He ran a 98 Beyer in winning the Gotham in the slop.

 

9- Pyro: One of the big wildcards in this race, Pyro would have been the co-favorite if he had chosen to run on a dirt track in his final prep.  He ran in the Bluegrass, and he obviously wasn’t able to handle the polytrack surface.  Throwing that one race out, this horse has been a consistent runner.  On the negative side, I have doubts about his ability to go 10 furlongs, and I cannot remember a horse who won any Grade I stakes race after posting a 73 Beyer number in his previous race.  In a race with several closers, jockey Bridgmohan could be forced to go too wide to figure.  At 6-1, I look for another horse.

 

10- Colonel John: Here’s another wildcard horse.  He’s never run a triple-digit Beyer, and he’s never run on anything but polytrack.  This is where things get tricky.  Jockeys running on polytrack believe that their horse must rate and come from off the pace to win, saving energy along the way.  It has led to many slower than normal races, and Colonel John has won four times in slow times.  At Churchill Downs, he has shown a likeness for the dirt track, earning a bullet for his workout on April 27 after breezing 5 furlongs in 57.4.  He has enough speed to stay close to the first flight of early speed horses, and his pedigree suggests that 10 furlongs is where he will run his best race.  You have to consider him a legitimate threat to win the race, especially if the pace is very fast.

 

11- Z Humor: Here’s a horse that really shouldn’t be in this race.  He has only finished in the money in one race this year, and that was a third place showing in the Illinois Derby.  He got a perfect trip in that race and couldn’t take advantage of it.  I expect him to finish in one of the final five spots in this race.

 

12- Smooth Air: Big Brown ran away from him in the Florida Derby, and I cannot see him reversing that in this race.  He could still hit the board, but he has little room for error in a race where better horses will be making their big move at the same time as he.  This horse has not been 100% this week, as he has run a fever.  I don’t see him moving forward, and I won’t include him in any WPS bets.

 

13- Bob Black Jack: He could be another Housebuster.  Housebuster was nearly unbeatable between 6 furlongs and a mile, but that was as far as he could run.  This horse should challenge Big Brown for the early lead, and he could set a pace that will be too fast for any of those who challenge him to sustain.  Add to this that it will be his first race on dirt, and he hasn’t wowed anybody at Churchill Downs this week.  Look for him to be on or near the lead at the end of a mile, but he will not have anything left at that point.

 

14- Monba: Here’s another horse with a past win at Churchill Downs, and that will earn him some backers.  I won’t be one of them.  He came out of the Fountain of Youth lame in February after being squeezed, and although he recovered to win the Bluegrass, I look for him to regress this weekend. 

 

15- Adriano: He won the Lane’s End at Turfway Park back in March and hasn’t raced since.  It wasn’t a necessarily strong race, and his 92 Beyer he earned in that race was his best.  He has raced just once on dirt, and he didn’t figure in that one, finishing 9th in the Fountain of Youth, well behind winner Cool Coal Man.  He’s one to toss out.

 

 

16- Denis of Cork: He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in November with 2007 Kentucky Derby Champion jockey Calvin Borel onboard.  He proceeded to win an allowance race and then the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes before finishing a distant 5th in the Illinois Derby.  Those four races represent his entire resume.  I cannot see him figuring in the Kentucky Derby and would toss him out if you are thinking of playing an exacta box.

 

17- Cowboy Cal: Here’s a consistent horse.  After his first race in which he was wide and tired in the stretch, Cowboy Cal has run five races in which he earned Beyer Speed numbers of 90, 95, 93, 91, and 92.  He should run a respectable 92 or so in the Derby, and that ought to be good enough for 9th or 10th place.

 

18- Recapturetheglory: He blistered the Hawthorne track in winning the Illinois Derby in 1:49 for 9 furlongs, but Andrew Beyer only gave him a 102 rating for that race, even though the track variant that day was 19.  I have to consider him a real dark horse.  He has a stalking style, and that style has won more Kentucky Derbies than any other.  He’s trained well since he arrived at the track.  I don’t see him getting the roses, but he should be highly considered on the bottom of exacta plays.

 

19- Gayego: The winner of the Arkansas Derby is just 15-1 in the morning line.  Here’s a horse that can rate behind fast and slow paces and still come home first.  He proved he could handle dirt at Oaklawn after shipping east from California.  His one drawback is his pedigree which does not show 10 furlongs to be the optimum distance for this bloodline.  He could come off the pace and stick a nose in front rounding the stretch, but he might not be able to stay at that point.  I think enough horses will pass him in the stretch to prevent him from earning a check.

 

20- Big Brown:  Here is the biggest wildcard in the field.  Obviously, he is the best horse in the field.  If just the top eight horses ran in this race, he’d be favored at less than even money odds.  Heck, at an eight horse maximum, he’d be even money odds to win the triple crown this year.  However, this is a 20-horse race, and this horse is breaking from the 20th post.  We’re also looking at an inexperienced horse who has to be on the lead or no more than one length back.  He is going to have to extend himself to pass enough horses in the opening 1/16 mile in order not to be forced 7 to 10 wide at the first turn.  He’s going to see Bob Black Jack and three or four others race out quickly, so it won’t be a given that he can get to the turn without going very wide.  Of all the horses who have won from the 16-20 posts, 100% of them did so by coming from off the pace.  No horse has ever wired the field from the outside.  There’s no value in playing him to win at 3-1 odds, and there are a slew of horses like Mr. Frisky who were can’t lose prospects who lost.  I won’t play him, but I won’t be surprised if he goes out and becomes the next Seattle Slew.  I didn’t pick Seattle Slew to win that day either, so take this for what it is.  I’ll be looking for the horse that can beat him.

 

 

My $100 Wager on the Kentucky Derby

 

With 20 horses in the race and 20 different betting interests, it allows one to place money on a really good horse at relatively high odds.  I want a double-digit odds horse in my betting choices. 

 

Before I reveal my “official” choices, I will explain that I have about 60 different factors I look at.  I award weighted points to each horse for each factor and then add the numbers together.  Last year Street Sense had the high point total, and I picked him to win.  This year, the polytrack problem makes the exercise much more difficult and time consuming.

 

Colonel John finished with the most points, with Z Fortune a surprising second and Cowboy Cal an even more surprising third.  I don’t just routinely play the horses in the order they finish in my system, but I will look for either Cowboy Cal or Z Fortune to hit the board at big odds.  Thus, I will play both of them to show. 

 

Even though I do not like his Beyer numbers, I am still going with Colonel John to hit the board as well.  Among the other top contenders, I am still scared of Pyro.  I expect we could see his odds drop as the race approaches.  That’s why I am willing to pick him to finish in the money as well.  So, it leaves me with four horses to place wagers on to hit the board.  Thus, here is how I am playing the race:

 

#6 Z Fortune $10 to show

#9 Pyro $10 to place and $10 to show

#10 Colonel John $20 to win, $20 to place, and $20 to show

#17 Cowboy Cal $10 to show

 

I am staying away from exotics this year because there would be too many variations to play, and the track take is too much.

 

Guest Experts

 

Now it’s time for the people who really know their stuff.  I will present five guest experts with much better credentials than me.  They will tell you what they think about this race.  I present them by the name they chose for me to use.

 

1. Boulder Bob

Bob is an amateur handicapper who has frequented all of the major West Coast tracks.  He has won Pick Six bets twice in his betting life and claims to have successfully picked 11 outright winners in this race since 1984.

 

“I look for horses that ran the final 1/8 mile in a 1 1/8 mile Grade 1 or 2 race in less than 13 seconds while gaining ground or extending their lead.  These horses are the ones most likely to go the distance at 1 ¼ miles and have the class to do so.  Colonel John and Recapturetheglory are the two horses that best fit that bill, so I’m playing them to win and place.  I will use them in exacta boxes as well.”

 

Wager

$20 on Colonel John to win

$20 on Recapturetheglory to place

$10 on Recapturetheglory to show

$5 each on an exacta with Colonel John on top of Recapturetheglory, Big Brown, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, and Gayego

 

$5 each on an exacta with Recapturetheglory on top of Colonel John, Big Brown, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, and Gayego.

 

2. Wesley Kahnert

I came to know Wes quite by accident.  He became a regular contributor to the Vandymania Internet fan site where I once was a writer.  He used the posting name of Weskahnsin, and I mistakenly thought he was from Wisconsin, my adopted home state.  Little did I know his handle stood for, “Wes Kahn’s In,” something many people said to him when he entered the locker room where he played college football.  Wes has relatives who work in the horse racing business, and he has been to several races over his career. 

 

“I don’t have much time to contribute here, but I will go with the favorite Big Brown to prove to one and all that he is the next super horse.  He’s the only horse in this field to run two 106 Beyer’s and a 110 Bris Speed Rating.  He should have enough speed to position himself behind Bob Black Jack and move inside enough to save ground.  Bob Black Jack will quit, and Big Brown will pass him and win by 5-10 lengths.  I don’t like Colonel John or any of the west coast horses.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Pyro returned to form and finished second.”

 

Wager

$100 on Big Brown to win

 

3. Walker Jones

Walker is another regular poster at Vandymania.  He lives in New Orleans where he owns a freight forwarding company.  A 1968 graduate of Vanderbilt University, he owns a 3 year old filly, Cutty Spark, who will be racing tonight (Friday, May 2) in a $12,500 maiden claiming event at Evangeline Downs. 

 

“Let me begin by stating that this is the toughest Derby for me to handicap in recent memory.  Aside from the obvious wild card of synthetic surface form I have a ranking system to judge stamina as 1 1/4 miles is a whole new ball game for 3yo colts on the 1st Saturday in May.  My ranking system is 1-4 stars and in this field no colt has more than two stars according to my system.  As a result I believe the derby is wide open and I will throw out the three top picks…Big Brown, Col. John and Pyro.  It seems to me that there is plenty of speed and the race will set up for a closer so I’m throwing out all of the speed horses and the ones that come from right off the pace (Gayego, Big Brown (again) Recapture the Glory, Cowboy Cal, and Bob Black Jack), I always throw out any colt who has a terrible recent race (Pyro (again), Monba, Adriano, Cool Cold Man, Anak Natal, Big Truck, Dennis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Z Fortune) and finally any colt who is changing equipment for the derby (Court Vision – blinkers on).  This leaves Visionaire, Eight Belles (f), Smooth Air and Z Humor.  After analysis of the form and pedigree of these four I pick the race in the order shown above. Visionaire’s Blue Grass is much better than it looks.  He was 10 wide and shuffled back to last and was running better than any of the others at the end to finish 5th beaten a little more than 6 lengths. I expect Eight Belles (f) will be a little further back than usual and make a good run.  I don’t think Z Humor and Smooth Air are good enough to seriously threaten. They just weren’t eliminated by the above criteria.   Betting strategy….  I’m not going to try to hit a home run here and cash an exotic bet.  With 20 betting interests the place and show bets should pay very well, especially if the favorites run out as expected.

 

A point I forgot to make about Big Brown is that usually when everyone thinks a horse is “the next super horse” it turns out not to be the case.  Even if the horse does turn out to be great he doesn’t win the derby (Curlin last year and Point Given a few years ago as examples).”

 

Wager

$20 on Visionaire to win, $20 to place, and $20 to show

$20 on Eight Belles to place and $20 to show

 

4. Jeannie the Horse Queenie

Jeannie has asked not to have her real name revealed here, so I helped her come up with this name.  She has a financial stake in three horses and has been a multi-year attendee at the famous annual Barnstable Brown Bash for the benefit of diabetes research.  Jeannie correctly picked Street Sense, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, and Go for Gin in the last 20 years.  She currently lives just outside of Nashville, but she is originally from Kentucky.

 

“I saw Adriano win the Lanes End in March and thought he was going to be my horse.  I expected him to run in the Bluegrass or Lexington, but when his handlers chose to skip them and go straight to the Derby, I didn’t like the long layoff.  So, I threw him out.

 

Next, I liked how Big Brown won the Florida Derby with ease against a decent field.  However, he is too lightly raced, and I cannot play a speedball from the 20th post.  Smooth Air, the second place finisher in the Florida Derby drew the 12th post, and he will have a little extra room to his outside for the auxiliary gate.  I expect him to break cleanly and get a perfect ride to the first turn.  He should be 5 lengths off the lead until he is ready to make his move, and I think he will be able to make a big move at the end of the backstretch.  At 20-1 odds, he should pay well if he hits the board.”

 

Wager

$5 on Smooth Air to Win

$5 on Smooth Air to Place

$20 on Smooth Air to Show

$2 each on an exacta box with Smooth Air on top of Big Brown, Pyro, Colonel John, Court Vision, Z Fortune, Visionaire, and Adriano

$1 each on a trifecta with Smooth Air on top of the same horses in the exacta as second and third choices

$5 on Adriano to Show

$2 on Eight Belles to Show because she’s a real lady

 

5. Randy Moss’s protégé

Let me preface this by saying that this “expert” does not have a relationship with Randy Moss and has only met him in passing at the track.  He uses Moss’s special pace figures to pick his winners.  This person chose not to release his name, but he will have a special interest in the under card at Churchill Downs tomorrow.

 

“I have been using the relatively new Moss Pace figures to pick winners of claiming and allowance races in the last two years, and the numbers of winning bets has increased for me.  So, I am going to give it a try in the Derby.

 

In his preview that he gave in the Daily Racing Form, Moss mentions that horses with front running styles are hurt on polytrack courses, so their prospects should increase when they move to dirt.  For that reason, I like Gayego to make a leap forward after running an excellent race at the Arkansas Derby.  I look for him to hit the board, but he’s not my choice to win the race.  I’m going with Pyro to prove that the Bluegrass was an aberration, and I think Colonel John will be chasing him home at the finish.  Visionaire is my long shot to finish in the money.”

 

Wager

$10 to win on Pyro

$10 to place on Pyro

$10 to show on Pyro

$10 to place on Colonel John

$10 to show on Colonel John

$6 to show on Gayego

$5 to show on Visionaire

$2 exacta wheel on Pyro over Colonel John, Gayego, Visionaire, Big Brown, Recapturetheglory

$2 exacta wheel on Colonel John over Pyro, Gayego, Visionaire, Big Brown, Recapturetheglory

$1 exacta wheel on Big Brown over the other 19 horses

 

So there you have it.  I hope this has been of some help to you.  I will return in two weeks to preview the Preakness in a truncated version of this preview.  I will be in Milwaukee during the Belmont Stakes, but I hope to find time to preview the final leg of the triple crown.  Then, look forward to some new stuff coming this summer.

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