The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 19, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Final Four

The semifinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and we now know who will play for the Simper Bowl title. If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

In the quarterfinal round, #1 Alabama knocked off #8 Mississippi St. 30-17; #7 Ole Miss upset #2 Oregon 24-22; #3 TCU dismissed #6 Florida St. 42-24; and #5 Baylor won at #4 Ohio St. 40-38/
The format for the Final Four is identical to the actual FBS Playoffs. In today’s simulation, we have #7 Ole Miss facing #3 TCU in the Rose Bowl, followed by #1 Alabama and #5 Baylor facing off in the Sugar Bowl.

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.
Rose Bowl
#3 TCU 27 #7 Ole Miss 10

Stats
First Downs: TC 19 OM 13
Rushing: TC 37-149 OM 32-89
Passing: TC 197 OM 239
Passes: TC 19-33-0 OM 21-39-4
Play-Yds: TC 70-346 OM 71-328
After 1st Qtr: TC 0 OM 0
Half: TC 7 OM 7
After 3rd Qtr: TC 20 OM 7

Sugar Bowl
#5 Baylor 26 #1 Alabama 24

Stats
First Downs BA 20 AL 19
Rushing: BA 26-79 AL 35-243
Passing: BA 419 AL 238
Passes: BA 35-53-1 AL 19-34-3
Play-Yds: BA 79-498 AL 69-481
After 1st Qtr: AL 10 BA 3
Half: AL 17 BA 16
After 3rd Qtr: BA 19 AL 17

And lo and behold, look who will be facing off in Simper Bowl VIII? It’s the two Big 12 teams that were not invited to the real inaugural playoffs. The simulator says that TCU and Baylor are the two best teams. As Former Texas Governor Rick Perry might say, “Oops!”

Return to this site on Tuesday, December 23 for the results of the simulation for the National Championship between Baylor and TCU.

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February 1, 2011

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Super Bowl XLV

Super Bowl XLV

 

 

Sunday, February 6, 2011, at Arlington, TX

6:30 PM EST on Fox-TV

Green Bay Packers (13-6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4-0)

 

Ratings

Pirate:       Green Bay 113.8           Pittsburgh 107.9

Mean:         Green Bay 110.9           Pittsburgh 109.8

Bias:           Green Bay 109.0           Pittsburgh 108.8

 

Vegas:        Green Bay by 2 ½

Totals:       44 ½

$-Line:       Green Bay -145            Pittsburgh +125

Halftime:   Green Bay by 1

Halftime Totals:       22 ½

 Our Ratings

PiRate:       Green Bay by 5.9

Mean:         Green Bay by 1.1

Bias:           Green Bay by 0.2

 

100 Computer Simulations:         Pittsburgh 51  Green Bay 49

Avg. Simulation Score:                    Green Bay 24.6  Pittsburgh 24.2

Simulation Outlier A:                      Pittsburgh 29  Green Bay 13

Simulation Outlier B:                      Green Bay 31  Pittsburgh 10

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   Pittsburgh – 4        Green Bay – 1

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    Over – 5       Under – 0

We do not have official picks during the Playoffs, but here is our Unofficial pick for this week: 

Make this an official edict: FORGET IT!  The Standard deviation on all our possibilities makes this a truly 50-50 proposition. 

 If you absolutely must place a legal wager somewhere, we advise going with this one.  If the game is as close as our computer data predicts, you might be able to play the extremes and win with this 4-part parlay:

 13-Point Teaser

Green Bay +12 ½

Pittsburgh +15 ½

Over 31 ½

Under 57 ½

For What it’s worth, our Conference Championship Unofficial picks merely went 5-0.  Here they are again:

1. Green Bay & Chicago Under 21 ½ (Halftime Line)

2. Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago

3. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 19 ½ (Halftime Line)

4. Pittsburgh & New York Jets Over 38 ½  

5. 10-point Teaser Parlay

          1 Green Bay & Chicago OVER 33 ½

          2 Green Bay +7 Chicago

          3 Pittsburgh & New York Jets OVER 28 ½  

Beginning Next Week: We look at the NCAA Basketball Tournament by perusing each conference and telling you where the candidates stand.  This will culminate in our annual can’t miss NCAA Bracket Breakdown and our special formula that has been amazingly accurate at picking the winner before the first tournament game is played.  It picked Duke to win last year when the Blue Devils were not among the favorites.  It predicted a fall by Kansas and Kentucky prior to the Final Four and it correctly tabbed Georgetown and Vanderbilt as the two most likely ranked teams to fall in first round upsets.  Check out our past posts in the “College Basketball” Category.

January 3, 2011

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–The Simper Bowl

SIMPER BOWL IV

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation College Football National Championship Game

 

You are looking live at the 2010-11 College Football National Championship Game from Glendale, Arizona.  It’s Simper Bowl IV, and you can feel the excitement in the air.

 

Three weeks ago, 12 teams began their quest to get here today.  Two are left: the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers meet for the second time this season.  These two squared off at Camp Randall Stadium in October with Wisconsin winning 31-18. 

 

If you want to see how these two teams got to Glendale, look at the blog entries for the previous three Mondays.  If you read last week’s entry, it explains how we simulated this big game today.

 

This simulation precludes any actions these two teams actually made during the bowl season.  Only the regular season results were figured in this computation, so if any players were injured during the bowl games, these are not figured into today’s game.  It is as if the bowls never happened.

 

It’s a beautiful evening here in Glendale, Arizona, tonight.  It is clear, and mild with a temperature of 61 degrees.  There is no wind to speak of, and the roof is open tonight.

 

The referee is on the field with the team captains.  Let’s go to our sideline reporter for the coin toss.

 

Gentlemen, this is the Simpler Bowl Official coin.  On this side of the coin is a Buckeye, and on this side of the coin is a Badger.  I will flip the coin, and whichever side it lands on wins the toss.

 

The flip shows that Ohio State has won the toss.  What do you want to do?

 

We want to defer to the second half.

 

Okay, Wisconsin, it’s your choice.  Do you want to receive or pick a side.

 

We want the ball.

 

Ohio State, pick the side you wish to defend.

 

Ohio State has won the toss and deferred to the second half.  Wisconsin will receive and defend this side.

 

Okay, we’re ready for the opening kickoff.

 

1st Quarter

Devin Barclay kicks off for Ohio State, and Jared Abbrederis hauls in the kick at the three.  He moves to the right and crosses the 25 yard line to the 28 for a 25-yard return.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W28

 Scott Tolzien takes the snap and hands the ball to Montee Ball going up the middle to the left.  He crosses the 30 to the 32 yard line where he is met by Andrew Sweat.  Gain of four.

 

2nd & 6 at W32

Tolzien gives to Ball going off left tackle.  Ball cannot break through the line and is stopped for no gain by a swarm of Buckeyes.

 

3rd & 6 at W32

Tolzien drops to pass.  He throws to the right hook to tight end Lance Kendricks.  The pass is complete for 12 yards and a first down.  Tackle made by Orhian Johnson.

 

1st & 10 at W44

Tolzien fakes to Ball and gives to Nick Toon on the reverse.  Toon has room to run. He crosses midfield.  He goes down the sideline and is knocked out of bounds after picking up 21 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O35

Tolzien hands to Ball going up the middle on a quick opener.  Ball picks up three yards before being knocked down by Brian Rolle.

 

2nd & 7 at O32

Tolzien fakes to Ball and drops back to pass, but he is sacked for a six yard loss by Nathan Williams.

 

3rd & 13 at O38

Tolzien drops back to pass.  He spots Isaac Anderson open on the sideline, but Anderson cannot hold onto the ball after being defended by Johnson.

 

4th & 13 at O38

Wisconsin takes a delay of game penalty of five yards.

 

4th & 18 at O43

Brad Nortman is in to punt.  He delivers a high-arching punt that is going to be fair caught by Jordan Hall at the nine yard line.  Punt of 34 yards with no return.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O9

Terrelle Pryor fakes to Dan Herron and keeps the ball going to the right.  He cannot get to the corner and is brought down for a one yard loss.  Tackle by Culmer St. Jean.

 

2nd & 11 at O8

Pryor hands to Herron going off left tackle.  Herron crosses the 10 to the 12 yard line for a gain of four yards.

 

3rd & 7 at O12

Pryor rolls out to the right and looks to pass.  He cannot spot an open receiver, and he runs.  He crosses the 15 to the 18 yard line, where he is going to be short of the first down.

 

4th & 1 at O18

Ben Buchanan is in to punt for the Buckeyes.  He gets off a rocket.  The ball travels 62 yards to the Wisconsin 20.  David Gilreth picks up the ball and tries to run to his left.  He breaks a tackle and has some open space.  He is to the 30, the 40, to midfield before he is brought down at the Ohio State 47.  Hold on.  There is a flag back at the Wisconsin 26.  The referee signals that the Badgers are guilty of an illegal block in the back.  That moves the ball back to the Wisconsin 16.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W16

Tolzien bobbles the snap.  He picks it up and runs back to the line of scrimmage for no gain.

 

2nd & 10 at W16

Tolzien drops back to pass and gives to James White on the draw.  White has some room to run up the middle.  He crosses the 20 to the 24 for a gain of eight yards.

 

3rd & 2 at W24

Tolzien gives to John Clay going up the middle.  He is brought down at the 26 by Ross Homan.  The referee has called for a measurement.  Here comes the chains.  “First Down!”

 

1st & 10 at W26

Tolzien fakes to White and drops back.  Nick Toon is open in the deep middle.  The pass is complete to Toon for 21 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W47

Tolzien gives to White going to the right.  He cannot make it to the corner and turns upfield where he is met by Homan at the line of scrimmage for no gain.

 

2nd & 10 at W47

Tolzien drops back to pass and cannot find an open receiver.  He scrambles to the left and spots White open just across the line of scrimmage.  The pass is complete for five yards.

 

3rd & 5 at O48

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires quickly to Kendricks, but the pass is off target.

 

4th & 5 at O48.

Nortman is in to punt.  Here is the kick.  It does not turn over, and Hall hauls it in at the 13.  He moves to the left and gets three yards on the return.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O16

There is movement in the line.  False start on Ohio State.

 

1st & 15 at O11

Pryor gives to Herron going to the left.  Herron crosses the 15 to the 17, where he is met by Blake Sorensen.

 

2nd & 9 at O17

Pryor fakes to Herron and drops back to pass.  He has no time and is going to go down hard after being sacked by J. J. Watt for a loss of seven.  Pryor is slow to get up.

 

3rd & 16 at O10

Ohio State is forced to take a time out as Pryor is hurting.

 

Time is back in, and Pryor gives to Herron on a delay.  Nobody is fooled, and Herron goes down after picking up four yards.

 

4th & 12 at O14

Buchanan is in to punt.  Here’s the kick.  It travels 41 yard to the Wisconsin 45.  Gilreth makes a fair catch.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W45

Tolzien hands off to Ball going up the middle.  Ball gets to midfield before being met by Rolle and Sweat.  That is the final play of the first quarter.

 

End of 1st Quarter

Ohio State 0  Wisconsin 0

 

2nd Quarter

Wisconsin Ball

2nd & 5 at 50

Tolzien rolls out to his left and pulls up.  He passes down the sideline to Abbrederis who catches the pass for 12 yards and a first down.  Devon Torrence makes the stop.

 

1st & 10 at O38

Tolzien fakes to Ball and drops back to pass.  He is looking deep and has a man open.  He fires to Toon, and Toon makes the diving catch at the Ohio State 11 yard line.  Gain of 27 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O11

Tolzien hands to Ball, and Ball is met at the line by a host of Buckeyes for no gain.  There is a flag on the play.  Wisconsin is guilty of an illegal formation—not enough men on the line.  Ohio State takes the penalty.

 

1st & 15 at O16

Tolzien drops back and gives to Ball on a delay.  He breaks a tackle and crosses the 10 to the seven yard line and a gain of nine.

 

2nd & 6 at O7

Tolzien hands to Ball going to his left.  He dives forward across the five to the three and a gain of four.

 

3rd & 2 at O3

Ohio State jumps offsides, so Wisconsin has a free play.  Tolzien rolls out to his right.  He pulls the ball down.  He sprints to the sideline and crosses the goal for a TOUCHDOWN.  Wisconsin declines the penalty.

 

PAT

Phillip Welch boots the ball through the uprights. 

 

WISCONSIN 7  OHIO STATE 0

 

Kickoff

Welch’s kick bounced into the end zone and goes through for a touchback.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O20

Pryor fakes to Brandon Saine and keeps the ball for a four yard gain to the left.  Antonio Fenelus makes the stop.

 

2nd & 6 at O25

Pryor gives to Saine going wide to the right.  Saine turns the corner and picks up a block.  He crosses the 30 to the 33 for an eight yard gain and a first down.  Aaron Henry makes the stop.

 

1st & 10 at O33

Pryor gives to Herron going up the middle.  He crosses the 35 to the 37 for a gain of four.  Sorenson makes the stop.

 

2nd & 6 at O37

Pryor fakes to Herron and drops back to pass.  Here comes the pass rush.  Pryor escapes the first tackle and rolls to his right.  He gets outside and throws the ball away.

 

3rd & 6 at O37

Pryor drops back to pass and runs the draw up the middle.  He breaks a tackle and crosses the 40 to the 45 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O45

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to the left.  He is met by a swarm of defenders and loses one yard.

 

2nd & 11 at O44

Pryor drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Jake Stoneburner for a gain of seven yards.  Mike Taylor makes the tackle.

 

3rd & 4 at W49

Pryor sprints to his right and looks to pass.  He pulls the ball down and runs for the sideline.  He crosses the spot for a first down and goes out of bounds at the 42.  There is a late hit out of bounds, moving the ball another 15 yards.

 

1st & 10 at W27

Pryor fakes to Herron and looks to the corner of the end zone.  His pass is on target to Devier Posey, but at the last second, it is batted away by Antonio Fenelus and is incomplete.

 

2nd & 10 at W27

Pryor gives to Herron running to his left.  He crosses the 25 to the 22 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 5 at W22

Pryor takes a quick drop and throws quickly to Dane Sanzenbacher.  Sanzenbacher makes the catch but cannot pick up the first down on a gain of four.

 

4th & 1 at W18

Ohio State is going for the first down.  Pryor is under center, and he runs the quarterback sneak for a yard and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W17

Pryor hands the ball to Saine who runs off right tackle.  He crosses the 15 to the 13 and a gain of four.

 

2nd & 6 at W13

Pryor fakes to Saine and sprints left.  He pushes a pass over the outstretched hands of Niles Brinkley, and it is caught by Posey for a seven yard pickup and a first down.

 

1st & G at W6

Pryor hands to Herron going off left tackle.  He has a hole and he waltzes in for the touchdown, but there is a flag down on the play.  The score will not count.  Ohio State is guilty of a hold.

 

1st & G at W16

Pryor rolls to his right and looks back across the middle.  He fires to Stoneburner, but the ball is off target and incomplete.

 

2nd & G at W16

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to the left.  He gets by the first wave and crosses the 15 and the 10 before being knocked out of bounds by Aaron Henry at the eight.

 

 3rd & G at W8

Pryor throws a quick look-in pass to Sanzenbacher that is complete.  Sanzenbacher dives forward to the goal but he comes up a bit short.  Ohio State has the ball just shy of the Wisconsin goal.

 

4th & G at W1

Ohio State is going for it.  Pryor under center.  He sneaks in for the TOUCHDOWN.

 

PAT

Barclay’s point after is good to cap an 18-play, 80-yard drive.

 

OHIO STATE 7  WISCONSIN 7

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick is short but high.  Gilreth hauls it in at the nine and goes straight up the middle.  He crosses the 15 to the 20 and goes down at the 23.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W23

Tolzien fakes to White and drops back to pass.  He has to scramble and runs to his right for a two yard gain.

 

2nd & 8 at W25

Tolzien gives to White going to the left of center.  White picks up three yards.

 

3rd & 5 at W28

Tolzien drops back to pass.  He looks short to Kendricks, but he is covered.  Tolzien takes a sack back at the 20, as Homan comes in on a delayed blitz.

 

4th & 13 at W20

Nortman set to punt.  It is high and long.  Hall retreats and fields it at the Ohio State 32.  Hall has a little room to his right, and he returns the punt to the 39.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O32

Pryor drops back to pass and fires down the left sideline.  Posey makes a circus catch just short of midfield for a gain of 16 and a first down. 

 

1st & 10 at O48

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps the ball around right tackle.  He crosses midfield for a gain of five.

 

2nd & 5 at W47

Pryor gives to Saine going up the middle.  He breaks a tackle and goes down at the 42 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W42

Pryor rolls to his right, looking deep downfield to Sanzenbacher.  Now, he decides to run, and he crosses the 40 to the 37 before being knocked out of bounds by Taylor.

 

2nd & 5 at W37

Pryor fumbles the snap and falls on the ball for a loss of three yards.  Ohio State calls timeout.  That is their first of the half.  There is 2:16 remaining until halftime.

 

3rd & 8 at W40

Pryor runs the QB draw.  He crosses the 35 but is tackled short of the first down by Valai on a gain of six.

 

4th & 2 at W34

Ohio State chooses to go for the first down.  Pryor is under center.  He gives to Herron on a blast off left guard.  Herron’s second effort gets the first down at the 32.

 

1st & 10 at W32

Pryor drops back to pass and has a man open over the middle.  He fires to Saine coming out of the backfield, and the pass is complete.  Saine runs across the 25 to the 23.  Ohio State calls its second timeout of the half.  There is 0:51 remaining until halftime.

 

2nd & 1 at W23

Pryor runs to the right and gets the first down, but he is brought down by St. Jean before he can get out of bounds at the 20.  First Down.

 

1st & 10 at W20

Pryor spikes the ball to stop the clock at 0:43

 

2nd & 10 at W20

Pryor drops back to pass, and he cannot find an open receiver.  He runs to his right and takes a coverage sack at the 22 as he goes out of bounds.

 

3rd & 12 at W22

Pryor gives to Herron on a draw play.  Herron crosses the 20 to the 16.  Ohio State chooses to let the clock run down to 0:03 and takes its final timeout.

 

4th & 6 at W16

Barclay enters the game to attempt a 33-yard field goal.  The snap is good; the ball is placed down, and the kick is GOOD.  The clock expires for halftime.

 

OHIO STATE 10  WISCONSIN 7

 

Third Quarter

Wisconsin will kick off to start the second half.  Welch runs into the ball and kicks a beauty.  The ball bounces in the end zone for a touchback.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O20

Pryor fakes to Herron and tosses quick to Zach Boren.  The pass is complete and Boren is wide open.  He crosses the 25 to the 33 and has a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O33

Pryor gives to Herron.  Herron has a hole.  He crosses the 40 to the 41 for eight yards.

 

2nd & 2 at O41

Pryor fakes right to Herron and keeps to the left.  He crosses the 45 and midfield for a gain of 11 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W48

Pryor gives to Saine up the middle. Saine has nowhere to  run and gets back to the line of scrimmage where Watt brings him down.

 

2nd & 10 at W48

Pryor drops back and throws wide to Sanzenbacher.  The pass is off the mark and incomplete.

 

3rd & 10 at W48

Pryor drops back to pass, but Wisconsin blitzes.  Pryor runs and cannot get to the corner.  He gains one yard.

 

4th & 9 at W47

Buchanan punts, and Gilreth calls for a fair catch at the 11 yard line.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W11

Wisconsin is guilty of a false start.

 

1st & 15 at W6

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  He gets to the 10 yard line and is met by a host of Buckeyes, led by Rolle.

 

2nd & 11 at W10

Tolzien drops to pass and throws to Kendricks.  The pass is incomplete.  Wisconsin is guilty of holding.  Ohio State declines the penalty.

 

3rd & 11 at W10

Tolzien drops to pass, but here comes the Buckeye blitz.  Tolzien has nowhere to go, and he is dropped back at the three by Cameron Heyward.

 

4th & 18 at W3

Nortman set to punt.  It is a low line drive and is returnable.  Hall catches it at the Wisconsin 44.  He crosses the 40, to the 35, the 30, and is knocked out of bounds at the 28.  There is a flag down on the play.  Ohio State is guilty of a block in the back at the 34.  10 yards from the spot places the ball back at the Wisconsin 44.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W44

Pryor gives to Herron.  Herron cuts back inside and has some room to run.  He crosses the 40 to the 34 and has a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W34

Pryor drops to pass.  He spots Posey open on the deep sideline.  His pass is complete.  Posey catches it at the 17 and begins to run.  He’s to the 15, the 10, the 5, and Touchdown!

 

PAT

Barclay’s kick is good.

 

OHIO STATE 17  WISCONSIN 7

 

KICKOFF

Barclay’s kick is taken by Gilreth at the three.  Gilreth runs to his right behind a wall of blockers.  He crosses the 25 to the 28 before going out of bounds.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W28

Tolzien gives to Ball going off right tackle.  Ball crosses the 30 to the 32 before Orhion Johnson meets him for the tackle.

 

2nd & 6 at W32

Tolzien gives to Ball going wide to the right.  Ball has some room to run.  He crosses the 40 to the 44 for a gain of 12 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W44

Tolzien hands to White going up the middle.  White gets two yards before Rolle knocks him to the ground.

 

2nd & 8 at W46

Tolzien stands and fires quickly to Kendricks.  Kendricks catches the ball and gets to the midfield stripe.

 

3rd & 2 at 50

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  He’s going to be close to the first down marker.  The referee calls for a measurement.  Wisconsin is short by about four inches.

 

4th & 1 at O49

Tolzien gives to Clay going off right guard.  He bashes through the line for three yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O46

Tolzien fakes to White and passes wide to Toon.  The pass is complete, and Toon advances the ball to the 32 yard line for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O32

Tolzien hands to White going to his left.  Homan is there to meet him, and White is dropped for a loss of two.

 

2nd & 12 at O34

Tolzien takes a semi-roll to this right and looks to pass.  He fires to Isaac Anderson.  Anderson makes the catch and is immediately brought down by Tyler Moeller at the 24.

 

3rd & 2 at O24

Tolzien fakes to Clay and passes to Kendricks across the middle.  Kendricks catches the ball at the 18 and turns to run.  He crosses the 15 to the 11 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O11

Tolzien hands to Ball going off left tackle.  He crosses the 10 to the 5, and heads to the flag.  He’s brought down at the one, but it is enough for a first down.

 

1st & G at O1

Tolzien sneaks, but he does not get in.  No gain.

 

2nd & G at O1

Tolzien hands to Clay, but Clay fumbles the ball.  There is a pileup on the field.  Wisconsin ball at the 2.

 

3rd & G at O2

Tolzien fakes to Clay and runs into the end zone for the Touchdown!

 

PAT

Welch’s point after try is good.

 

OHIO STATE 17  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Welch’s kick is short and is taken by Jamaal Berry on a bounce at the eight.  Berry heads to his right.  He crosses the 10, the 15, the 20, and he has interference clearing a hole for him.  He crosses the 30, the 40, and is finally pushed out of bounds at the 44.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O44

Pryor fakes to Jordan Hall and keeps in the opposite direction.  He is hit hard by Patrick Butrym and goes down at the 45 for a gain of one.  Pryor seems to be favoring his left elbow. 

 

2nd & 9 at O45

Joe Bauserman replaces Pryor at quarterback.  Bauserman hands to Saine going off right tackle.  Saine gets four yards before being met by Taylor.

 

3rd & 5 at O41

Bauserman gives to Saine going to his left.  He breaks a tackle and heads across the 45 to the 47 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O47

Bauserman fakes to Saine and rolls out to pass.  Nobody is open downfield, but he spots Saine just in front of him.  His pass is complete and Saine turns to run.  He crosses the 50 to the Wisconsin 46 for a gain of seven.

 

2nd & 3 at W46

Bauserman hands to Saine going up the middle.  Saine gets four yards and a first down before Taylor brings him down.  That is the last play of the third quarter.

 

End of 3rd Quarter

Ohio State 17  Wisconsin 14

 

4th Quarter

Ohio State Continues Possession

1st & 10 at W42

Pryor is back in at QB.  He gives to Herron going to his left.  Herron crosses the 40 to the 37.

 

2nd & 5 at W37

Pryor gives to Herron going to his right.  Herron is met by a host of Badger defenders and is taken down for a loss of a yard.

 

3rd & 6 at W38

Pryor drops to pass, and now he runs.  He crosses the 35 and takes a dive at the 32 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W32

Pryor fakes to Herron and fires wide to Sanzenbacher.  The pass is on target and complete to the 20 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W20

Pryor gives to Herron going off right guard.  Pryor doesn’t get much, maybe a yard, before Watt engulfs him at the 19.

 

2nd & 9 at W19

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps to his left.  Now, he pulls up and throws to the end zone to Posey.  The pass is off the mark and incomplete.

 

3rd & 9 at W19

Pryor drops back to pass and is hit as he throws.  The ball sails high and is intercepted by Niles Brinkley at the 10.  Brinkley is off to the races.  He crosses the 20, the 30, the 40, the 50, the Ohio State 40, and is finally brought down at the 38.  There is a flag down on the field back at the Wisconsin 20.

 

Holding on Ohio State is the call, and Wisconsin declines the penalty.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W10

Tolzien gives to Ball going to the left.  Ball turns the corner and gets to the 13.

 

2nd & 7 at W13

Tolzien rolls out wide to the right.  He looks to pass and now decides to run.  He is caught from behind by Nathan Williams and dropped for a three yard loss.

 

3rd & 10 at W10

Tolzien gives to Ball on a draw play.  Ball crosses the 15 to the 17, but he is short of a first down.

 

4th & 3 at W17

Nortman is ready to punt.  It is partially blocked and goes out of bounds at the Badger 38 yard line.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W38

Pryor gives to Herron up the middle.  Herron gets to the 35 for a gain of three.

 

2nd & 7 at W35

Pryor gives to Herron going to his left.  Herron finds a seam and heads to the 30 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 2 at W30

Pryor gives to Saine going up the middle.  Saine breaks a tackle and crosses the 25 to the 23 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W23

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps going in the opposite direction.  He’s fooled the Badger defense.  Pryor crosses the 20 to the 15, the 10, the 5, and he is finally knocked out of bounds at the 2 for a gain of 21 and a first down.

 

1st & G at W2

Pryor gives to Saine, diving across the line, and he falls into the end zone for a Touchdown!

 

PAT

Barclay’s point after attempt is good.

 

OHIO STATE 24  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick sails to the Wisconsin 7 where Abbrederis hauls it in.  He crosses the 20 to the 24 yard line.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W24

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Toon.  Toon makes the catch at the 32 and turns upfield to the 35 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W35

Tolzien fakes to White and passes wide to Anderson.  The pass is complete to the 43, where Devon Torrence brings him down short of the first down.

 

2nd & 2 at W43

Tolzien gives to Clay going left of cente.  Clay crosses the 45 to the 47 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W47

Tolzien fakes to White and drops to pass.  He looks deep across the middle to Kendricks, but the pass is batted away by Jermale Hines.

 

2nd & 10 at W47

Tolzien gives to Ball going wide to the left.  Ball has some room.  He crosses the 50 to the Ohio State 45 and dives to the 43 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O43

Tolzien takes a semi-roll to his right.  He fires downfield to Toon, and the pass is complete at the 36.  Toon turns and breaks a tackle, but he is knocked down from behind by Homan and fumbles.  John Simon recovers for the Buckeyes at the 35.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O35

Pryor fakes to Saine and looks deep down the sideline for Posey.  Posey jumps up and makes a diving catch at the Wisconsin 41 for a gain of 24 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W41

Pryor gives to Saine going off left tackle.  Saine is stopped at the 40 for a gain of a yard.

 

2nd & 9 at W40

Pryor gives to Saine going off right tackle.  Saine cuts back to the inside and gets to the 35 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 4 at W35

Pryor gives to Herron going just right of center.  Herron has a hole.  He crosses the 30 to the 28 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W28

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to his right.  He crosses the 25 to the 23 before being knocked out of bounds.

 

2nd & 5 at W23

Pryor fumbles the snap and falls on the ball for a two yard loss.

 

3rd & 7 at W23

Pryor drops back to pass and escapes a strong pass rush.  He gets outside and throws the ball away.

 

4th & 7 at W23

Barclay attempts a 40-yard field goal.  The ball is down; the kick is up; and it is Good.

 

OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick is a squibb on the ground.  Gilreth comes up to field it on a bounce at the 18.  He gains 10 yards before being brought down by a swarm of Buckeyes.

 

Wisconsin Possession

The Badgers must go to a hurry up offense with 2:05 left in the game.

 

1st & 10 at W28

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Kendricks.  The pass is complete, and Kendricks gets to the 39 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W39

Tolzien drops back and fires quickly to the outside to Toon.  The pass is complete at the 42, and Toon picks up three more yards before going out of bounds.

 

2nd & 4 at W45

Tolzien has no time to pass.  He tries to break free, but he is sacked by Cameron Heyward for a loss of seven.  Wisconsin calls its first timeout of the half.

 

3rd & 11 at W38

Tolzien drops back to pass and looks to his right.  He fires to Anderson, and the pass is complete at the 47 yard line.  Anderson cannot gain anything extra.  Wisconsin calls its second timeout of the half with 1:34 remaining.

 

4th & 2 at W47

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  Her gets across midfield to the Ohio State 48 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O48

Tolzien spikes the ball.

 

2nd & 10 at O48

Tolzien drops to pass and looks deep for Toon.  Toon is covered, and Tolzien dumps to Ball.  Ball catches the ball at the 48 and runs across the 45 to the 41 and out of bounds.

 

3rd & 3 at O41

Tolzien rolls to his right and throws to the sideline to Gilreth.  Gilreth cannot haul it in.

 

4th & 3 at O41

Tolzien fires quickly to Kendrick.  Kendricks catches the ball at the 37 and gets to the 35 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O35

Tolzien spikes the ball with 0:59 remaining.

 

2nd & 10 at O35

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires deep down the left side to Toon.  Toon has it in his hands, but he cannot keep possession of the ball.

 

3rd & 10 at O35

Tolzien drops back and has to scramble immediately.  He crosses the 30 to the 28, but he cannot get the first down.  Wisconsin calls its final timeout.  0:45 to go in the game.

 

4th & 3 at O28

Tolzien drops back and passes to Kendricks.  Kendricks makes the catch at the 20 and turns and races to the 17 before running out of bounds.  First Down Wisconsin.  0:36 left in the game.

 

1st & 10 at O17

Tolzien drops back and fires into the end zone to Toon.  Toon makes the catch for the Touchdown!

 

PAT

Welch’s point after try is good

 

OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 21

 

Kickoff

Wisconsin lines up for an onside kick attempt.  Welch’s kick bounces twice, and Tyler Moeller grabs the ball for Ohio State.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W41

Ohio State comes out in the victory formation.  Pryor takes the snap and takes two steps backward before taking a knee at the 43.  Wisconsin is out of timeouts, and the clock winds to zero.

 

Ohio State has won the Simper Bowl!

 

FINAL SCORE:  OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 21

 

Thank You for tuning in.  Join the PiRate Ratings Thursday afternoon for our computer simulations of the Wildcard Round of the NFL Playoffs.  We will simulate each of the four games 100 times and give you the results.

December 31, 2010

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Three

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the third preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from January 3 through The BCS Championship Game.   

 

Monday, January 3

Orange Bowl

Miami, FL

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Stanford (11-1)  vs.  Virginia Tech (11-2)

Vegas: Stanford by 3 ½

Totals: 58

PiRate: Stanford by 7.6

Mean: Stanford by 5.3

Bias: Stanford by 13.7

100 Sims: Stanford 77  Virginia Tech 23

Avg. Sim Score: Stanford 30.4  Virginia Tech 20.9

Outlier A: Stanford 45  Virginia Tech 19

Outlier B: Virginia Tech 33  Stanford 21

 

Tuesday, January 4

Sugar Bowl

New Orleans, LA

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Ohio State (11-1)  vs. Arkansas (10-2)

Vegas: Ohio State by 3 ½

Totals: 56 ½

PiRate: Ohio State by 3.6

Mean: Ohio State by 2.8

Bias: Arkansas by 4.1

100 Sims: Arkansas 54  Ohio State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Arkansas 26.3  Ohio State 23.7

Outlier A: Arkansas 34  Ohio State 14

Outlier B: Ohio State 27  Arkansas 16

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Mobile, AL

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Miami (Ohio) (9-4)  vs. Middle Tennessee (6-6)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 48 ½

PiRate: Miami (O) by 7.8

Mean: Miami (O) by 6.2

Bias: Miami (O) by 9.7

100 Sims: Miami (O) 64  Middle Tennessee 36

Avg. Sim Score: Miami (O) 35.1  Middle Tennessee 26.5

Outlier A: Miami (O) 41  Middle Tennessee 20

Outlier B: Middle Tennessee 34  Miami (O) 20

 

Friday, January 7

Cotton Bowl

Arlington, TX

8:00 PM EST on Fox Network

L S U (10-2)  vs. Texas A&M (9-3)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 49

PiRate: Texas A&M by 1.8

Mean: L S U by 1.0

Bias: Texas A&M by 6.6

100 Sims: L S U 53  Texas A&M 47

Avg. Sim Score: L S U 25.5  Texas A&M 25.1

Outlier A: L S U 30  Texas A&M 13

Outlier B: Texas A&M 28  LSU 17

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl

Birmingham, AL

12 Noon EST on ESPN

Pittsburgh (7-5)  vs.  Kentucky (6-6)

Vegas: Pittsburgh by 3 ½

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 4.8

Mean: Pittsburgh by 4.7

Bias: Kentucky by 5.6

100 Sims: Pittsburgh 62  Kentucky 38

Avg. Sim Score: Pittsburgh 19.8  Kentucky 16.9

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 27  Kentucky 7

Outlier B: Kentucky 23  Pittsburgh 10

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM EST on ESPN

Nevada (12-1)  vs. Boston College (7-5)

Vegas: Nevada by 7 ½

Totals: 55

PiRate: Nevada by 12.9

Mean: Nevada by 12.4

Bias: Nevada by 5.3

100 Sims: Nevada 70  Boston College 30

Avg. Sim Score: Nevada 31.8  Boston College 23.6

Outlier A: Nevada 48  Boston College 25

Outlier B: Boston College 31  Nevada 24 (two times)

 

Monday, January 10

B C S  Championship Game

Glendale, AZ

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Oregon (12-0)  vs.  Auburn (13-0)

Vegas: Auburn by 2 ½

Totals: 74 ½

PiRate: Oregon by 7.8

Mean: Oregon by 2.4

Bias: Oregon by 9.6

100 Sims: Oregon 64  Auburn 36

Avg. Sim Score: Oregon 43.6  Auburn 36.9

Outlier A: Oregon 51  Auburn 32

Outlier B: Auburn 44  Oregon 38 (three others by 6)

8 simulations went to overtime, with Oregon winning seven of those games

December 27, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Semifinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—The Final Four

 

You are looking live at the College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.  Last week in the quarterfinals, Auburn beat Arkansas, Wisconsin edged Stanford, Oregon trounced Boise State, and Ohio State bested TCU.

 

For those of you that did not read our features from the previous two weeks, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began two weeks ago with four games being played.  The quarterfinals ran last Monday; today, the semifinals run, and next Monday, January 3, the Championship Game, called “The Simper Bowl,” will run.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games, and Auburn, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Ohio State advanced to today’s semifinal games. 

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.  They were extremely close today.  In the Orange Bowl, 88 sims were decided by five points or less.  In the Rose Bowl, all 100 sims were decided by single digits, and 17 went to overtime!

 

 

Orange Bowl

#1 Auburn vs. #5 Wisconsin

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 40.6  Auburn 38.7

Wisconsin wins: 53

Auburn wins: 47

 

Outlier A: Wisconsin 48  Auburn 36

Outlier B: Auburn 42  Wisconsin 29

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-248  pass-177

Average Auburn Yards: rush-208  pass-211

 

Rose Bowl

#2 Oregon vs. #6 Ohio State

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.9  Oregon 24.8

Ohio State wins: 50

Oregon wins: 50

Outlier A: Ohio State 45  Oregon 37 3ot

Outlier B: Oregon 30  Ohio State 21

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-183  pass-179

Average Oregon Yards: rush-186  pass-180

 

 

Simper Bowl IV is set.  Congratulations to the Big Ten Conference for landing both championship game participants.  Wisconsin will play Ohio State for all the marbles, and you can see the results next Monday in play-by-play format.

 

The format for the championship game will be different.  We will simulate this game 100 times to discover the winner of the game to determine the winner.  Then, we will simulate it again as many times as needed for the winner to come up with another win.  The first simulation past number 100 that shows our 100-game simulation as the winner will be the official Simper Bowl results.  Since we will give you the results in a play-by-play format, if you do not peak at the bottom, you can follow the action as if you are seeing it unfold live, sort of.

 

For example, let’s say we were simulating 2009 Alabama against 2008 Florida.  Let’s say that Alabama wins the 100 simulations by a margin of 52 to 48.  We will then simulate this game again and again until the result shows Alabama winning and take that first simulation from #101 on that shows Alabama winning as the game result.

 

So, come by this website next Monday afternoon, January 3, 2011, for Simper Bowl IV.

 

Happy New Years to all, and please be responsible Friday night.  Don’t miss 2011 because you were ignorant on the last day of 2010.

December 26, 2010

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Two

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game. 

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl

Detroit, MI

8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Toledo (8-4)  vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)

Vegas: Toledo by 1

Totals: 57

PiRate: Toledo by 3.3

Mean: Toledo by 2.8

Bias: Toledo by 16.8

100 Sims: Toledo 67  Florida International 33

Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6  Florida International 25.7

Outlier A: Toledo 49  Florida International 19

Outlier B: Florida International 37  Toledo 24

 

Monday, December 27

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

Air Force (8-4)  vs.  Georgia Tech (6-6)

Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½  

Totals: 56

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7

Mean: Air Force by 5.2

Bias: Air Force by 5.9

100 Sims: Air Force 55  Georgia Tech 45

Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2  Georgia Tech 26.9

Outlier A: Air Force 41  Georgia Tech 23

Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34  A Force 23

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

6:30 PM EST on ESPN

West Virginia (9-3)  vs. North Carolina State (8-4)

Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½

Totals: 49

PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8

Mean: West Virginia by 2.3

Bias: West Virginia by 3.0

100 Sims: West Virginia 53  North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)

Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8  North Carolina State 25.2

Outlier A: West Virginia 27  North Carolina State 10

Outlier B: North Carolina State 28  West Virginia 12

 

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM EST

Missouri (10-2)  vs.  Iowa (7-5)

Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½

Totals: 46 ½

PiRate: Even

Mean: Missouri by 4.1

Bias: Missouri by 12.6

100 Sims: Missouri 58  Iowa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6  Iowa 22.3

Outlier A: Missouri 31  Iowa 13

Outlier B: Iowa 21  Missouri 7

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl

Washington, D.C.

2:30 PM on EST

Maryland (8-4)  vs. East Carolina (6-6)

Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½

Totals: 68 ½

PiRate: Maryland by 18.4

Mean: Maryland by 11.2

Bias: Maryland by 13.8

100 Sims: East Carolina 51  Maryland 49

Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4  East Carolina 34.1

Outlier A: East Carolina 47  Maryland 31

Outlier B: Maryland 42  East Carolina 20

 

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

6:00 PM EST on ESPN

Baylor (7-5)  vs. Illinois (6-6)

Vegas: Baylor by 1

Totals: 62 ½

PiRate: Baylor by 2.4

Mean: Illinois by 1.6

Bias: Baylor by 6.9

100 Sims: Illinois 54  Baylor 46

Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1  Baylor 28.6

Outlier A: Illinois 34  Baylor 17

Outlier B: Baylor 28  Illinois 18

 

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM EST on ESPN

Oklahoma State (10-2)  vs. Arizona (7-5)

Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½

Totals: 66

PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1

Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1

Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6

100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61  Arizona 39

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0  Arizona 29.1

Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51  Arizona 27

Outlier B: Arizona 34  Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)

 

Thursday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U (7-6)  vs. Army (6-6)

Vegas: S M U by 7

Totals: 52

PiRate: S M U by 7.7

Mean: S M U by 3.2

Bias: S M U by 10.6

100 Sims: S M U 64  Army 36

Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2  Army 20.6

Outlier A: S M U 34  Army 10

Outlier B: Army 24  S M U 16

 

Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

3:20 PM EST

Syracuse (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 47 ½

PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5

Mean: Kansas State by 4.6

Bias: Syracuse by 2.3

100 Sims: Syracuse 53  Kansas State 47

Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1  Kansas State 18.6

Outlier A: Syracuse 24  Kansas State 7

Outlier B: Kansas State 17  Syracuse 3

 

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

6:30 PM EST

Tennessee (6-6)  vs. North Carolina (7-5)

Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½  

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8

Mean: North Carolina by 1.5

Bias: Tennessee by 6.6

100 Sims: Tennessee 50  North Carolina 50

Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5  North Carolina 23.9

Outlier A: Tennessee 30  North Carolina 14

Outlier B: North Carolina 27  Tennessee 12

 

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

10:00 PM EST

Nebraska (10-3)  vs. Washington (6-6)

Vegas: Nebraska by 14

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8

Mean: Nebraska by 11.5

Bias: Nebraska by 5.3

100 Sims: Nebraska 57  Washington 43

Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1  Washington 19.3

Outlier A: Nebraska 27  Washington 6

Outlier B: Washington 23  Nebraska 14

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

12:00 Noon EST

South Florida (7-5)  vs. Clemson (6-6)

Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½

Totals: 40 ½

PiRate: Clemson by 5.1

Mean: Clemson by 3.7

Bias: South Florida by 6.1

100 Sims: South Florida 58  Clemson 42

Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1  Clemson 19.2

Outlier A: South Florida 31  Clemson 12

Outlier B: Clemson 28  South Florida 16

 

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

2:00 PM EST on CBS

Notre Dame (7-5)  vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)

Vegas: Miami by 3

Totals: 47

PiRate: Miami by 6.3

Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2

Bias: Miami by 6.0

100 Sims: Notre Dame 52  Miami 48

Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4  Miami 23.2

Outlier A: Notre Dame 30  Miami 14

Outlier B: Miami 35  Notre Dame 14

 

Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST on ESPN

Central Florida (10-3)  vs. Georgia (6-6)

Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½

Totals: 55 ½

PiRate: Georgia by 12.8

Mean: Georgia by 5.3

Bias: Georgia by 11.3

100 Sims: Georgia 72  Central Florida 28

Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6  Central Florida 17.3

Outlier A: Georgia 38  Central Florida 10

Outlier B: Central Florida 24  Georgia 19

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM EST on ESPN

South Carolina (9-4)  vs. Florida State (9-4)

Vegas: South Carolina by 3

Totals: 55

PiRate: Florida State by 0.4

Mean: South Carolina by 0.5

Bias: Florida State by 1.6

100 Sims: Florida State 52  South Carolina 48

Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7  Florida State 26.6

Outlier A: Florida State 30  South Carolina 16

Outlier B: South Carolina 44  Florida State 17

 

Saturday, January 1

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U

Texas Tech (7-5)  vs. Northwestern (7-5)

Vegas: Texas Tech by 10

Totals: 60

PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5

Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3

Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6

100 Sims: Texas Tech 86  Northwestern 14

Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6  Northwestern 21.2

Outlier A: Texas Tech 45  Northwestern 17

Outlier B: Northwestern 30  Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)

 

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

1:00 PM EST on ABC

Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)

Vegas: Florida by 7 ½  

Totals: 48

PiRate: Florida by 13.2

Mean: Florida by 5.1

Bias: Florida by 5.5

100 Sims: Florida 54  Penn State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6  Penn State 19.8

Outlier A: Florida 28  Penn State 13

Outlier B: Penn State 21  Florida 10

 

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL

1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Michigan State (11-1) vs.  Alabama (9-3)

Vegas: Alabama by 10

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Alabama by 15.5

Mean: Alabama by 10.4

Bias: Alabama by 3.2

100 Sims: Alabama 59  Michigan State 41

Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6  Michigan State 24.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan State 12

Outlier B: Michigan State 35  Alabama 25

 

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM EST on ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4)  vs.  Michigan (7-5)

Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½

Totals: 61

PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3

Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3

Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8

100 Sims: Mississippi State 52  Michigan 48

Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7  Michigan 30.1

Outlier A: Mississippi State 38  Michigan 20

Outlier B: Michigan 36  Mississippi State 27

 

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

T C U (12-0)  vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

Vegas: T C U by 3

Totals: 58 ½

PiRate: T C U by 7.9

Mean: T C U by 5.8

Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6

100 Sims: Wisconsin 54  T C U 46

Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4  T C U 28.8

Outlier A: Wisconsin 40  T C U 24

Outlier B: T C U 34  Wisconsin 24

 

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma (11-2)  vs. Connecticut (8-4)

Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2

Totals: 55

PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7

Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2

Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7

100 Sims: Oklahoma 91  Connecticut 9

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3  Connecticut 14.8

Outlier A: Oklahoma 49  Connecticut 7

Outlier B: Connecticut 27  Oklahoma 23

December 20, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Quarterfinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—Quarterfinal Round

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.

 

For those of you that did not read our feature from last week, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began last Monday with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run today; the semifinals run next Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game will run on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games. 

 

Here are the matchups for today’s quarterfinal round.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.

 

 

Sugar Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

 

WINNER: AUBURN

 

Average Score: Auburn 44.6  Arkansas 23.9

Auburn wins: 93

Arkansas wins: 7

Outlier A: Auburn 59  Arkansas 17

Outlier B: Arkansas 49  Auburn 42 2OT

Average Auburn Yards: rush-231  pass-280

Average Arkansas Yards: rush-108  pass-271

 

Cotton Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.3  Stanford 36.1

Wisconsin wins: 59

Stanford: 41

Outlier A: Wisconsin 51  Stanford 30

Outlier B: Stanford 40  Wisconsin 27

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-251  pass-208

Average Stanford Yards: rush-106  pass-311

 

Fiesta Bowl

#10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

 

WINNER: OREGON

 

Average Score: Oregon 50.6  Boise State 31.7

Oregon wins: 88

Boise State wins: 12

Outlier A: Oregon 56  Boise State 16

Outlier B: Boise State 48  Oregon 35

Average Oregon Yards: rush-307  pass-277

Average Boise State Yards: rush-133  pass-299

 

Capital One Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 19.7  T C U 14.4

Ohio State wins: 60

T C U: 40

Outlier A: Ohio State 28  T C U 6

Outlier B: T C U 20  Ohio State 7

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-147  pass-155

Average T C U Yards: rush-97  pass-146

 

The semifinal round is set.  In the Orange Bowl, top-seeded Auburn takes on number five seed Wisconsin.  In the Rose Bowl, number two seed Oregon faces number six seed Ohio State.  Have a Merry Christmas, and we will see you next Monday with the new results.

December 16, 2010

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part One

We will be posting three bowl previews this year.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and our 100 times computer simulation for each game.

Today, we cover the bowls before Christmas Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from December 26 through New Year’s Day. Finally, we will preview the bowls after January 1.  Three bowls kick off Saturday, and four more will be played next week.  

Saturday, December 18

New Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque, NM

1 PM EST on ESPN

Brigham Young Cougars 6-6  vs.  Texas-El Paso Miners 6-6

Vegas: BYU by 11 ½

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: BYU by 18.8

Mean: BYU by 12.3

Bias: BYU by 14.8

100 Sims: BYU 89  UTEP 11

Avg. Sim Score: BYU 33.7  UTEP 20.2

Outlier A: BYU 45  UTEP 17

Outlier B: UTEP 29  BYU 23

 

Humanitarian Bowl

Boise, ID

4:30 PM EST on ESPN

Fresno State Bulldogs 8-4  vs.  Northern Illinois Huskies 10-3

Vegas: Northern Illinois by 1

Totals: 59

PiRate: Northern Illinois by 4.4

Mean: Northern Illinois by 4.1

Bias: Northern Illinois by 9.6

100 Sims: Northern Illinois 58  Fresno State 42

Avg. Sim Score: Northern Illinois 34.6  Fresno State 30.1

Outlier A: Northern Illinois 42  Fresno State 23

Outlier B: Fresno State 37  Northern Illinois 27

 

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans, LA

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Troy Trojans 7-5  vs. Ohio U Bobcats 8-4

Vegas: Troy by 2 ½

Totals: 58

PiRate: Ohio U by 3.6

Mean: Ohio U by 2.1

Bias: Ohio U by 16.2

100 Sims: Ohio U 61  Troy 39

Avg. Sim Score: Ohio U 35.1  Troy 29.8

Outlier A: Ohio U 41  Troy 17

Outlier B: Troy 38  Ohio U 27

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady Bowl

St. Petersburg, FL

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 8-4  vs. Louisville Cardinals 6-6

Vegas: Louisville by 3

Totals: 57

PiRate: Louisville by 5.7

Mean: Louisville by 1.2

Bias: Louisville by 10.5

100 Sims: Louisville 60  Southern Miss 40

Avg. Sim Score: Louisville 31.1  Southern Miss 27.9

Outlier A: Louisville 35  Southern Miss 13

Outlier B: Southern Miss 40  Louisville 21

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas, NV

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

Utah Utes 10-2  vs. Boise State Broncos 11-1

Vegas: Boise State by 17

Totals: 61

PiRate: Boise State by 17.7

Mean: Boise State by 14.0

Bias: Boise State by 16.6

100 Sims: Boise State 76  Utah 24

Avg. Sim Score: Boise State 40.3  Utah 24.1

Outlier A: Boise State 51  Utah 20

Outlier B: Utah 38  Boise State 31 (two different results gave Utah a 7-point win)

 

Thursday, December 23

Poinsettia Bowl

San Diego, CA

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

San Diego State Aztecs 8-4  vs. Navy Midshipmen 9-3

Vegas: San Diego State by 4 ½

Totals: 60

PiRate: San Diego State by 5.6

Mean: San Diego State by 0.8

Bias: San Diego State by 4.3

100 Sims: San Diego State 55  Navy 45

Avg. Sim Score: San Diego State 32.8  Navy 30.7

Outlier A: San Diego State 44  Navy 24

Outlier B: Navy 38  San Diego State 26

 

Friday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl

Honolulu, HI

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

Hawaii Warriors 10-3  vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 9-3

Vegas: Hawaii by 10

Totals: 73 ½

PiRate: Hawaii by 14.6

Mean: Hawaii by 6.2

Bias: Hawaii by 9.9

100 Sims: Hawaii 58  Tulsa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Hawaii 46.4  Tulsa 40.2

Outlier A: Hawaii 59  Tulsa 35

Outlier B: Tulsa 47  Hawaii 38

December 13, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

Can Boise State defend their Simper Bowl title from last season?  Will Auburn and Oregon make it to the title game?  Is there a dark horse team that can emerge like Butler in basketball?

 

Let’s get started with the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for four and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in “Simper Bowl III.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State, as the teams played to a 10-10 tie in regulation before Boise won in six overtimes 39-37.

 

Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls, 38-24 over Oklahoma in Simper Bowl I and 27-23 over Florida in Simper Bowl II.

 

Our simulated playoffs have 12 teams.  We take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and award them automatic bids.  We then take all other conference champions that finish in the top 12 of the BCS and award them automatic bids.  We then select the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and award at-large bids until we have our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams are then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds receive first round byes as a reward.  We also limit to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we need 11 games.  So, we use the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round begins today with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run next Monday; the semifinals on Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we are changing our format.  We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinals

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Arkansas or Michigan State

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Wisconsin or Connecticut

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Oklahoma or Boise State

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Ohio State or Virginia Tech

 

Semifinals

Orange Bowl: Winners of the Sugar and Cotton Bowls

Rose Bowl: Winners of the Fiesta and Capital One Bowls

 

Simper Bowl IV—The National Championship Game

Orange Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner

 

Are you ready?  Here are the results of the first round games.

 

Outback Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

WINNER: ARKANSAS

 

Average Score: Arkansas 30.4  Michigan State 27.6

Arkansas wins: 59

Michigan State wins: 41

Outlier A: Arkansas 44  Michigan State 17

Outlier B: Michigan State 37  Arkansas 20

Arkansas Avg Yards: rush-113  pass-274

Michigan State Avg Yards: rush-144  pass-228

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.7  Connecticut 22.6

Wisconsin wins: 94

Connecticut wins: 6

Outlier A: Wisconsin 61  Connecticut 13

Outlier B: Connecticut 33  Wisconsin 28

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-246  pass-234

Average Connecticut Yards: rush-153  pass-159

 

Insight Bowl

#7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

 

WINNER: BOISE STATE

 

Average Score: Boise State 37.3  Oklahoma 29.2

Boise State wins: 66

Oklahoma wins: 34

Outlier A: Boise State 41  Oklahoma 20

Outlier B: Oklahoma 34  Boise State 26

Average Boise State Yards: rush-157  pass-269

Average Oklahoma Yards: rush-128  pass-249

 

Alamo Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.0  Virginia Tech 18.7

Ohio State wins: 68

Virginia Tech: 32

Outlier A: Ohio State 37  Virginia Tech 10

Outlier B: Virginia Tech 24  Ohio State 17

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-151  pass-177

Average Virginia Tech Yards: rush-111  pass-149

 

 

The quarterfinal round is now set and will be played next Monday, December 20.  Here is the schedule.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

February 6, 2010

A Better Way To Expand The NCAA Tournament

A Better Way To Expand The NCAA Tournament Field

Field of 88

The NCAA is tinkering with the idea of expanding the basketball tournament field from 65 to 96 teams.  Under this format, 32 teams would receive first round byes, while 64 teams would be forced into a “play-in” round. This would allow just about every .500 team in conference play in the top six conferences a great shot at making the field.  It supposedly would allow the regular season champions from the mid-majors to get in the field if they did not win their conference tournament championship.

I have a better idea, and I believe it would create maximum excitement.  Almost every fan fell in love with George Mason when they made their run to the Final Four.  It’s what is supposed to create all the excitement when a “little team” makes a deep run.  My plan would allow for a “little team” to make a deep run every season, while giving more of the power conference teams a chance to make the field.

Here’s how I propose an 88-team field.

1. Divide the conferences into two categories, similar to how football has BCS and non-BCS conferences.  Call the elite conferences the “56 Division” and the other conferences the “32 Division.”  

2. The 56 division will consist of the top 10 conferences in RPI over the previous five years, and the 32 Division will consist of the remaining 21 conferences (plus Independents and the yet-to-be-awarded an automatic bid Great West Conference).

3. The 32 Division will conduct their conference tournaments during the Wednesday through Saturday falling between February 25 to March 3, while the 56 Division will conduct their conference tournaments during the Wednesday through Sunday falling between March 4 and March 11.

4. On the Sunday following the 32 Division conference tournaments, the NCAA will announce their field of 32.  This will allow for all 21 conference tournament champions to make the field plus the top 11 at-large.  So, if a team from the Southland Conference finishes 29-4 but loses in the Southland Conference Tournament, that 29-4 team will get in the field of 32.

5. On the Sunday that concludes the 56 Division conferment tournaments, the NCAA will announce their field of 56 teams.  This averages out to 5.6 teams per large conference.  If the numbers ten, nine, and eight conferences receive just two bids each, then the remaining seven conferences will split 50 bids, more than seven per league.

6. The 32 Division will begin their opening two rounds of NCAA tournament play during the week that the 56 Division will be conducting their conference tournaments.  They will play two rounds, the first one falling on the Wednesday and Thursday of that week, and the second round falling on the Friday and Saturday of that week.  By Sunday, when the 56 Division field is announced, there will be eight teams remaining in the 32 Division field.

7. The 32 Division continues to play its own bracket for the next three games.  The 56 Division plays its own bracket for its first three rounds.  The next week after the 56 Division teams are selected will be much like it is now.  On the following Thursday through Sunday, two rounds will be played.  The 56 Division will have 14 teams remaining, while the 32 Division will have two teams left.  This leaves the same Sweet 16.

8. The following week, the two remaining 32 Division teams will join the bracket that included the overall #1 seed.  Those two teams will play for the 32 Division title, and the winner will then be one of the Elite 8.  The 56 Division will move from 14 to seven teams during this first game of the weekend.  The 32 Division champion will now play in the Elite 8 against a 56 Division team.

9.  Teams will be seeded 1-56 in the 56 Division and 1-32 in the 32 Division with no consideration given to conference affiliation.  Two teams from the same conference might play in the first round.

This guarantees that a mid-major or lower-prestigious team will advance to the Elite 8 every year.

Here’s an example of how this tournament might look.  For the sake of argument, let’s say these 10 conferences would be considered the 56 Division:  ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Pac-10, and SEC.  

The 32 Division would then take the remaining conferences: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sunbelt, WAC, and West Coast.

Let’s say these teams won the 32 Division conference tournaments:

America East—Vermont

Atlantic Sun—East Tennessee

Big Sky—Weber State

Big South—Coastal Carolina

Big West—Pacific

Colonial—George Mason

Horizon—Green Bay (upsetting Butler)

Ivy—Cornell

MAAC—Iona (upsetting Siena)

MAC—Kent State

MEAC—Morgan State

Northeast—Robert Morris

Ohio Valley—Morehead State (upsetting Murray State)

Patriot—Lafayette

Southern—Charleston

Southland—Stephen F. Austin (upsetting Sam Houston)

SWAC—Texas Southern

Summit—IUPUI

Sunbelt—Arkansas State

WAC—Utah State

West Coast—St. Mary’s (mild upset over Gonzaga)

These 21 conference champions automatically make the field of 32, and the five upset victims are easily chosen as well.  Additionally, six more teams are selected from these conferences—Louisiana Tech, Oakland, Old Dominion, Western Carolina, Akron, and Northern Colorado.

The 56 Division Field is announced on Selection Sunday, with these 56 teams in the field (Bold represents automatic qualifier by virtue of conference tournament championships)

ACC (8)—Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Clemson

Atlantic 10 (5)—Temple, Xavier, Rhode Island, Richmond, and Charlotte

Big East (10)—Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Marquette

Big Ten (5)—Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois

Big 12 (7)—Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., and Baylor

CUSA (4)—UAB, Tulsa, UTEP, and Memphis

Missouri Valley (2)—Northern Iowa and Wichita State

Mountain West (4)—BYU, UNLV, New Mexico, and San Diego State

Pac-10 (3)—California, Arizona State, and Washington

SEC (8)—Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Alabama and Ole Miss

Villanova is named the overall number one seed, so the 32 Division champion will be placed in the bracket with Villanova.  Should Villanova win its first three tournament games, the Wildcats will face the 32 Division champion for a trip to the Final Four.  If Villanova is upset before making it to the Elite 8, the 32 Division champion will still play the team from that part of the bracket that makes it to the Elite 8 (the bracket will not be re-arranged).

Here is a computer simulated version of the tournament.

32 Division

Round One—played March 10 and 11

Butler  74  Texas Southern 62

Gonzaga 80  Lafayette 58

Cornell 72  Arkansas State 55

Old Dominion 68  Robert Morris 64

St. Mary’s 69  Vermont 52

Siena 75  East Tennessee 69

Stephen F. Austin 77  Utah State 74

Sam Houston 69  Coastal Carolina 67

Akron 58  Louisiana Tech 55

Green Bay 64  Kent State 60

Oakland 74  Morgan State 69

George Mason 62  Western Carolina 60

Pacific 83  Iona 78

Morehead State 72  Charleston 65

Weber State 90  Northern Colorado 77

Murray State 77  IUPUI 75 ot

Round Two—played March 12 and 13

Butler 69  Murray State 62

Gonzaga 85  Weber State 68

Cornell 67  Morehead State 62

Pacific 71  Old Dominion 67

St. Mary’s 70  George Mason 55

Siena 70  Oakland 60

Sam Houston 65  Akron 60

Stephen F. Austin 66  Green Bay 63

Round Three—played March 18 and 19

Butler 74  Sam Houston 60

Gonzaga 89  Stephen F. Austin 70

Cornell 82  Siena 80 2ot

St. Mary’s 73  Pacific 65

Round Four—played March 20 and 21

St. Mary’s 66  Butler 63

Gonzaga 78  Cornell 71

32-Division Championship—played March 25 or 26

St. Mary’s 72  Gonzaga 70

St. Mary’s moves on to the Elite 8 as the number 8 seed in the Villanova bracket.

56-Division

Round One—played March 18 and 19

Villanova 75  Alabama 66

Michigan State 65  Florida 63

Cincinnati 73  Northern Iowa 64

Oklahoma State 80  Richmond 66

Kansas 73  Illinois 70

Tulsa 70  New Mexico 61

Missouri 81  Temple 72

Clemson 77  UAB 70

Syracuse 73  Virginia 62

Vanderbilt 80  Washington 69

Texas 91  South Florida 69

Ohio State 73  California 60

Duke 91  Arizona State 72

Notre Dame 72  Rhode Island 71

B Y U 70  Wichita State 64

Texas A&M 74  Charlotte 67

West Virginia 83  UTEP 73

South Carolina 69  Purdue 67

Wake Forest 72  Florida State 67

Georgia Tech 80  UNLV 65

Kentucky 88  Memphis 77

Wisconsin 61  Marquette 58

Maryland 85  Pittsburgh 77

Louisville 65  Baylor 63

Kansas State 75  Virginia Tech 64

Mississippi State 71  Georgetown 69

Tennessee 82  San Diego State 68

Xavier 72  Ole Miss 60

Round Two—played March 20 and 21

Villanova 82  Oklahoma State 71

Michigan State 73  Cincinnati 66

Clemson 81  Kansas 74

Missouri 84  Tulsa 69

Syracuse 73  Ohio State 65

Vanderbilt 72  Texas 70

Duke 85  Texas A&M 70

Notre Dame 71  BYU 66

West Virginia 77 Georgia Tech 74

South Carolina 73  Wake Forest 70

Kentucky 84  Louisville 75

Maryland 68  Wisconsin 64

Kansas State 70  Xavier 67

Mississippi State 75  Tennessee 70

Round Three—played March 25 and 26

Michigan State 66  Villanova 64

Missouri 91  Clemson 83

Syracuse 72  Vanderbilt 64

Duke 81  Notre Dame 70

West Virginia 71  South Carolina 62

Kentucky 82  Maryland 70

Mississippi State 74  Kansas State 70

Elite 8 Round—played March 27 and 28

St. Mary’s 65  Michigan State 62

Mississippi State 76  Missouri 72

Kentucky 80  Syracuse 73

West Virginia 82  Duke 80

Final Four—played April 3

West Virginia 69  St. Mary’s 61

Kentucky 81  Mississippi State 72

Championship Game—played April 5

Kentucky 79  West Virginia 74

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