Last 4 Byes: Nevada, Boise St., Memphis, Oklahoma St.
Last 4 In: West Virginia, USC, Mississippi St., Wisconsin
First 4 Out: Utah St., North Carolina, Texas Tech, Michigan
Next 4 Out: Clemson, New Mexico, Penn St., Arizona St.
What Is My Process?
I have been asked by multiple people how I make my bracketology. It is a multi-step process. I use the same data that the NCAA Selection Committee uses–Net Ratings, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, Eye Test, etc. that the Committee uses.
I begin by choosing the one-bid conference representatives. Each time, I use the team that is in first place at the time. If two or more teams are tied for first, I choose the team with the most current success. Most of these teams automatically move to the 12-16 seed lines. They will be compared to each other and seeded 12 through 16. A couple (like Florida Atlantic this year) may move up. If enough move up, then the at-large field may feature two or even four 12-seeds, but in most years, the last 4 teams in the field will be the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th best 11-seeds.
The next step in the process is to pick the teams that are obviously getting bids from the multiple bid conferences. These include teams like Virginia, Marquette, Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, and UCLA among others at the present time. After that, I then choose about 20 other teams that represent the Bubble. From these 20 Bubble teams, I will closely examine the resumes of each, ranking them from 1 to 20. The big question with the Bubble is, “how many are needed to get to 68 total teams?” This week, it was seven. Seven teams made the field. Eight teams fell into first 4 out or next 4 out, while the other five would be placed in an under consideration list and needing a lot of help. Michigan had been in the under consideration group for weeks until recent victories allowed the Wolverines to jump up to first 4 out status. A couple more wins, and the Maize and Blue might find themselves in the Field.
Once I have the 68 teams chosen, and I have the 12-16 seeds filled in (22 teams), the remaining 46 teams are ranked as I believe the Committee will rank them. When you see my seed lines, they are in the order of my rankings, so that looking at today’s #3 seeds, Marquette is my top 3-seed team. Tennessee has fallen to the last 3-seed team. I do not alter my seed lines to prevent teams from the same conference from playing in the first round. If two Big 12 teams are shown playing in the Round of 64, the Committee will change the S-Curve. I’ll leave the teams where they finish in my rankings.
If I could change one thing in how the Selection Committee chooses the at-large teams, it would be to add conference record into the equation. If the third place team in the ACC beats the sixth place team both times in the regular season and finishes three games ahead in the standings, that should at least mean as much as out of conference results. In my mind, a 13-7 ACC team that sweeps a 10-10 ACC team has proven itself to be the better of the two teams. Yet, every year, the Committee takes one of these teams that finished behind another and that lose to the other team that did not receive a bid. The Committee tends to give more weight to out of conference games in November and December than conference games in January and February.
Championship Fortnight Begins Monday
The greatest five weeks of college basketball action start Monday night when the first conference tournament action begins. The Atlantic Sun Tournament begins with the top 10 finishers in the regular season qualifying. Team #9 will host Team #10 and Team #7 will host Team #8.
The #9 vs. #10 winner will then play the #1 seed, and the #7 vs. #8 winner will then play the #2 seed in the quarterfinals. The #3 seed will play the #6 seed, and the #4 seed will play the #5 seed. Unlike most leagues, this conference will then re-seed the teams, like the NFL Playoffs, in the semifinal round. All A-Sun Tournament games will be played at the home gym of the better seed.
Three more tournaments begin on Tuesday. The Horizon League’s first round will find the #6 through 11 seeds playing to make the quarterfinals, while the top 5 seeds receive first round byes. First Round and Quarterfinal Round games will be played on the better seeds’ home floors, with the semifinals and finals moving to Indianapolis.
The Patriot League will take place exclusively on the better seeds’ home floors. Tuesday’s first round games will see #10 playing at #7 and #9 playing at #8, or a normal first round bracket in a 10-team field.
The Sun Belt Conference features all 14 teams playing in beautiful Pensacola, Florida. The first round begins Tuesday with the #11 seed playing #14 and the #12 seed playing #13. This will be a hotly contested tournament for the one bid, as there are four teams in this league (Marshall, Southern Miss, Louisiana, and James Madison) talented enough to beat a single digit seed in the Round of 64. If Marshall wins the automatic bid, the Thundering Herd’s R+T Rating is going to be high enough to be considered a dark horse for the Sweet 16.
Check back daily once conference tournament action begins. The PiRate Ratings will have daily updates.
This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).
Villanova vs. Ohio St.
This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.
This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.
Duke vs. Michigan St.
Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.
The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.
This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.
Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame
If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.
Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)
Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.
Purdue vs. Texas
This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.
Arizona vs. TCU
One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.
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