The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 24, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 24, 2022

Thursday, March 24, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
GonzagaArkansas10.2
VillanovaMichigan4.0
DukeTexas Tech-0.2
ArizonaHouston1.3

March 19, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 pm

Sunday’s Games

Sunday, March 20, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
IllinoisHouston-3.3
VillanovaOhio St.4.4
DukeMichigan St.6.5
WisconsinIowa St.3.8
Texas TechNotre Dame7.3
AuburnMiami (Fla.)8.9
PurdueTexas2.6
ArizonaTCU10.3
XavierFlorida2.6
SMUWashington St.2.7
VanderbiltDayton2.3
North TexasVirginia3.2
OklahomaSt. Bonaventure6.7
VMIUNC Wilmington0.7
Florida AtlanticNorthern Colorado5.7
UNC GreensboroBoston1.3
Abilene ChristianTroy3.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Data

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Illinois233060.736.733.445.431.77.712.8
Houston101156.034.137.843.528.714.322.2
Villanova82861.035.930.948.230.54.811.5
Ohio St.1313160.037.328.846.233.5-1.06.0
Duke74457.636.831.846.928.64.112.7
Michigan St.385360.837.830.747.930.43.08.5
Wisconsin493860.131.225.949.932.33.47.3
Iowa St.1511059.736.828.250.728.11.23.8
Texas Tech65160.831.433.344.336.19.617.5
Notre Dame298456.838.022.549.327.0-2.53.8
Auburn24859.232.033.142.631.65.912.5
Miami (Fla.)1715757.035.323.453.928.8-5.01.3
Purdue310060.039.135.249.236.312.119.2
Texas321360.232.331.846.132.37.210.1
Arizona52058.235.434.541.935.17.017.9
TCU802460.330.437.847.931.212.516.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Game Analysis

Illinois vs. Houston

This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).

Villanova vs. Ohio St.

This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.

This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.

The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.

Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.

This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.

Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame

If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.

Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)

Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.

Purdue vs. Texas

This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.

Arizona vs. TCU

One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.

February 22, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 22, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
North DakotaSt. Thomas-0.9
DartmouthYale-2.2
MissouriTennessee-12.5
FloridaArkansas-0.6
IowaMichigan St.5.6
NortheasternCharleston-1.1
MonmouthSiena9.2
St. BonaventureRhode Island7.1
George WashingtonRichmond-6.4
Eastern MichiganNorthern Illinois2.6
Kent St.Ball St.9.6
AkronBowling Green8.1
Miami (O)Buffalo-6.5
Western MichiganToledo-15.3
OhioCentral Michigan17.6
Texas A&MGeorgia12.2
ConnecticutVillanova0.4
Texas TechOklahoma9.3
PittsburghMiami (Fla.)-4.4
Saint LouisSaint Joseph’s11.8
NorthwesternNebraska11.2
KansasKansas St.13.0
VanderbiltAlabama-3.8
Air ForceFresno St.-8.7
Boise St.San Diego St.2.0
Cal PolyCal St. Bakersfield-1.5
Utah St.New Mexico12.1
NevadaUNLV0.3

February 16, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
FairfieldManhattan7.0
ArmyColgate-7.3
USC UpstatePresbyterian1.9
XavierSt. John’s8.0
RadfordCampbell-3.4
RutgersIllinois-5.7
AlabamaMississippi St.7.0
LafayetteLoyola (MD)-1.1
Holy CrossBoston U-8.5
AmericanNavy-10.4
HamptonNorth Carolina A&T-3.2
Gardner-WebbWinthrop4.0
Charleston SouthernUNC Asheville-9.7
LouisvilleMiami (Fla.)-0.9
Notre DameBoston College11.1
New HampshireVermont-9.5
Maryland Baltimore Co.Stony Brook2.3
NJITUMass Lowell-3.5
HartfordMaine10.4
BinghamtonAlbany0.7
StetsonJacksonville-3.1
Florida Gulf CoastKennesaw St.3.9
St. BonaventureMassachusetts10.3
Saint Joseph’sGeorge Mason-0.3
Western CarolinaFurman-12.7
MercerEast Tennessee St.1.5
The CitadelWofford-5.4
LSUGeorgia19.0
DuquesneGeorge Washington3.1
Stephen F. AustinChicago St.19.1
Eastern KentuckyNorth Alabama6.1
Saint LouisLa Salle16.4
MarquetteGeorgetown15.5
TarletonUtah Valley-2.5
UT Rio Grande ValleySeattle-6.7
North CarolinaPittsburgh14.4
LipscombJacksonville St.-5.1
Central ArkansasBellarmine-7.1
ValparaisoLoyola (Chi.)-11.0
DrakeEvansville15.6
ConnecticutSeton Hall4.9
AuburnVanderbilt14.6
NorthwesternPurdue-5.3
Texas TechBaylor0.0
TempleSMU-4.2
UT MartinMorehead St.-9.8
New Mexico St.Dixie St.14.8
California BaptistGrand Canyon-4.7
Air ForceBoise St.-11.7
Fresno St.UNLV5.7
PepperdineGonzaga-29.4

February 9, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 9, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
CornellColumbia15.2
UNC AshevilleHampton10.5
FloridaGeorgia15.2
SMUHouston-7.4
RutgersOhio St.-4.1
Seton HallXavier2.6
HarvardYale-0.1
Boston UArmy8.2
Holy CrossLoyola (MD)-4.9
South FloridaCincinnati-8.7
ColgateLehigh14.1
BucknellAmerican3.0
WinthropRadford9.6
PresbyterianHigh Point2.0
North Carolina A&TCharleston Southern10.2
CampbellGardner-Webb0.8
NC St.Wake Forest-3.9
Miami (Fla.)Georgia Tech8.8
Notre DameLouisville7.5
New HampshireNJIT7.3
Stony BrookUMass Lowell3.2
AlbanyMaine13.6
Maryland Baltimore Co.Hartford6.6
VermontBinghamton16.2
North FloridaBellarmine-1.7
JacksonvilleEastern Kentucky3.5
Youngstown St.Oakland-4.2
Robert MorrisDetroit-2.9
MassachusettsGeorge Washington8.1
George MasonRichmond-0.7
DaytonDuquesne15.0
DavidsonSaint Joseph’s11.1
ChattanoogaWestern Carolina17.4
FairfieldQuinnipiac6.0
Delaware St.Maryland-Eastern Shore-7.4
StetsonJacksonville St.-7.2
Kennesaw St.Central Arkansas11.4
Florida Gulf CoastNorth Alabama6.7
Kansas St.Baylor-6.9
MemphisTulane9.8
Green BayWright St.-7.4
MilwaukeeNorthern Kentucky-2.4
Northern IowaSouthern Illinois5.8
Illinois St.Valparaiso3.3
DrakeMissouri St.-0.2
SamfordWofford-4.5
MississippiAlabama-5.4
OklahomaTexas Tech-3.7
Mississippi St.Tennessee-3.6
DePaulGeorgetown9.4
Florida St.Pittsburgh10.7
BradleyLoyola (Chi.)-3.5
NebraskaMinnesota-2.8
Oregon St.California-0.4
San Jose St.San Diego St.-15.9

March 21, 2021

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Sunday, March 21, 2021

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
BaylorWisconsin5.4
VillanovaNorth Texas5.7
ArkansasTexas Tech1.9
FloridaOral Roberts9.9
IllinoisLoyola (Chi.)6.2
Oklahoma St.Oregon St.5.6
West VirginiaSyracuse2.8
HoustonRutgers7.1

March 11, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 11, 2020

Date

3/11/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Dayton

Baylor

2

San Diego St.

Florida St.

Villanova

Creighton

3

Duke

Kentucky

Seton Hall

Michigan St.

4

Maryland

Louisville

Oregon

Wisconsin

5

Ohio St.

Auburn

Butler

BYU

6

West Virginia

Iowa

Penn St.

Virginia

7

Illinois

Colorado

Michigan

Arizona

8

Houston

Providence

LSU

Saint Mary’s

9

USC

Marquette

Oklahoma

Rutgers

10

Arizona St.

Florida

Indiana

Utah St.

11

E. Tennessee St.

Stanford

Xavier

Wichita St.

Texas Tech

12

Yale

Liberty

S. F. Austin

Richmond

UCLA

13

Vermont

Akron

North Texas

New Mexico St.

14

Bradley

Belmont

Hofstra

Colgate

15

UC-Irvine

N. Dakota St.

Little Rock

E. Washington

16

N. Kentucky

Winthrop

Siena

Prairie View

Robert Morris

N. C.  A&T

 

Last Four Byes:  Florida, Indiana, Stanford, and Xavier

Last Four IN: Wichita St., Texas Tech, Richmond, and UCLA

First Four OUT: North Carolina St., Cincinnati, Texas, and Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: Memphis, Northern Iowa, Purdue, and Saint Louis

 

Note:  Starting with today’s Bracketology and continuing for our final two Bracketology predictions (Friday and Sunday), our seed lines now reflect our beliefs that the NCAA Selection Committee will have some political beliefs that alter seed lines.  For instance, we moved Virginia up one seed strictly because they are the defending champions, and we believe some members on the Selection Committee will lobby on their behalf to be moved higher up.  

We are closely monitoring Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference.  Any blip that comes DU’s way might move the Flyers down to the 2-seed line if an elite team like Duke, Michigan St., or Kentucky romps through their conference tournament.

 

February 3, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 4, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:33 pm

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

15.7

Boston College

Duke

-17.2

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

3.2

Texas Tech

Oklahoma

7.0

DePaul

Xavier

0.8

Maryland

Rutgers

7.4

Michigan

Ohio St.

1.1

Michigan St.

Penn St.

7.9

Fairfield

Monmouth

0.1

Kent St.

Ball St.

3.5

Eastern Michigan

Buffalo

-1.7

Miami (O)

Western Michigan

4.3

Toledo

Northern Illinois

6.0

Central Michigan

Bowling Green

1.5

Fresno St.

Colorado St.

-0.8

Wyoming

Boise St.

-10.7

Nevada

Air Force

10.4

Arkansas

Auburn

3.4

Alabama

Tennessee

6.1

Kentucky

Mississippi St.

4.7

Texas A&M

Missouri

-0.9

 

Tuesday’s Best TV Games

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

FS1

Maryland

Rutgers

7:00 PM

SECN

Arkansas

Auburn

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Michigan

Ohio St.

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Alabama

Tennessee

8:00 PM

BTN

Michigan St.

Penn St.

9:00 PM

ESPN

Kentucky

Mississippi St.

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Texas Tech

Oklahoma

 

 

January 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 21, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:45 am

College Basketball Teams Playing Tuesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Villanova

Butler

1.1

Kansas

Kansas St.

17.5

Kentucky

Georgia

10.0

South Florida

Wichita St.

-5.0

Northwestern

Maryland

-8.6

Purdue

Illinois

5.0

Kent St.

Northern Illinois

8.5

Ohio

Toledo

-3.6

Bowling Green

Eastern Michigan

7.2

Buffalo

Western Michigan

9.1

LSU

Florida

2.9

Miami (O)

Akron

-6.6

TCU

Texas Tech

-3.1

Clemson

Wake Forest

6.2

Iowa St.

Oklahoma St.

4.7

Duke

Miami

19.2

Wisconsin

Nebraska

12.9

Missouri

Texas A&M

10.2

Marquette

St. John’s

8.5

Saint Joseph’s

VCU

-12.2

Tennessee

Ole Miss

7.7

New Mexico

San Jose St.

14.7

San Diego St.

Wyoming

26.2

Utah St.

Air Force

12.6

 

 

 

April 7, 2019

PiRate Ratings 2019 National Championship Preview

PiRate Ratings

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Virginia

120.1

0.0

Texas Tech

120.2

-0.1

TV Information

Tip Time: 9:20 PM Eastern Daylight

Network: CBS

Announce Team:

Play by Play: Jim Nantz 

Analysts: Bill Raftery and Grant Hill

Sideline Reporter: Tracy Wolfson

 

Bracketnomics Breakdown

Championship Game

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Virginia

60.55

11.6

29.7

75.2

12.7

15.5

10.0

Texas Tech

60.20

10.0

26.5

72.5

15.9

19.9

3.3

Strength of Schedule: This is basically even, so all other stats need not be adjusted.

True Shooting Percentage Margin: Virginia enjoys a tiny advantage, but not anything that can be convincing.  Both teams excel in forcing opponents to take bad shots or hurry them as the shot clock expires.  With both teams playing the Pack-Line Defense, it appears that the number of possessions per team will be quite low, as low as 60 per side, and with both teams stronger on the defensive end than on the offensive end, it would not be shocking if both teams scored less than a point per possession.

R+T Rating: This is where Virginia has the edge, thanks to better overall rebounding, avoiding mistakes, and picking up an occasional big steal.  Texas Tech’s 3.3 R+T is one of the lowest ever to make the Final Four, much less the Championship Game.

Rebounding Margin: Virginia is a better offensive rebounding team, but Texas Tech enjoys an equal advantage on the defensive glass, so this should be an even match.

Turnover Margin: Texas Tech forces turnovers on one out of every five possessions, while Virginia commits turnovers on one out of every eight possessions.  The Cavaliers usually commit more than their norm against teams that harass and sometimes overplay on defense, but they still manage to win these games.

Prediction: Experts and pundits never believed a team that runs the Pack-Line defense could win a national title, but since both championship game participants use this defense, it is guaranteed to win a national championship this year.

The raw numbers would have us suspect that 55 points might be enough to win this game, but something tells us that since these teams practice against a similar defense all the time, and Tony Bennett and Chris Beard know where their offenses can exploit each other’s defenses, that these teams could both top 60 points in this game.

There have been seven National Championship Games that have gone to overtime since the tournament began in 1939.  All of our ratings lead us to believe that this game could stay close the entire night.

Both teams have short benches, as Virginia played just seven players against Auburn, and Texas Tech used just eight players in their win over Michigan St.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Virginia 64  Texas Tech 60

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