The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 26, 2010

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Two

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game. 

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl

Detroit, MI

8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Toledo (8-4)  vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)

Vegas: Toledo by 1

Totals: 57

PiRate: Toledo by 3.3

Mean: Toledo by 2.8

Bias: Toledo by 16.8

100 Sims: Toledo 67  Florida International 33

Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6  Florida International 25.7

Outlier A: Toledo 49  Florida International 19

Outlier B: Florida International 37  Toledo 24

 

Monday, December 27

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

Air Force (8-4)  vs.  Georgia Tech (6-6)

Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½  

Totals: 56

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7

Mean: Air Force by 5.2

Bias: Air Force by 5.9

100 Sims: Air Force 55  Georgia Tech 45

Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2  Georgia Tech 26.9

Outlier A: Air Force 41  Georgia Tech 23

Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34  A Force 23

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

6:30 PM EST on ESPN

West Virginia (9-3)  vs. North Carolina State (8-4)

Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½

Totals: 49

PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8

Mean: West Virginia by 2.3

Bias: West Virginia by 3.0

100 Sims: West Virginia 53  North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)

Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8  North Carolina State 25.2

Outlier A: West Virginia 27  North Carolina State 10

Outlier B: North Carolina State 28  West Virginia 12

 

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM EST

Missouri (10-2)  vs.  Iowa (7-5)

Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½

Totals: 46 ½

PiRate: Even

Mean: Missouri by 4.1

Bias: Missouri by 12.6

100 Sims: Missouri 58  Iowa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6  Iowa 22.3

Outlier A: Missouri 31  Iowa 13

Outlier B: Iowa 21  Missouri 7

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl

Washington, D.C.

2:30 PM on EST

Maryland (8-4)  vs. East Carolina (6-6)

Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½

Totals: 68 ½

PiRate: Maryland by 18.4

Mean: Maryland by 11.2

Bias: Maryland by 13.8

100 Sims: East Carolina 51  Maryland 49

Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4  East Carolina 34.1

Outlier A: East Carolina 47  Maryland 31

Outlier B: Maryland 42  East Carolina 20

 

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

6:00 PM EST on ESPN

Baylor (7-5)  vs. Illinois (6-6)

Vegas: Baylor by 1

Totals: 62 ½

PiRate: Baylor by 2.4

Mean: Illinois by 1.6

Bias: Baylor by 6.9

100 Sims: Illinois 54  Baylor 46

Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1  Baylor 28.6

Outlier A: Illinois 34  Baylor 17

Outlier B: Baylor 28  Illinois 18

 

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM EST on ESPN

Oklahoma State (10-2)  vs. Arizona (7-5)

Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½

Totals: 66

PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1

Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1

Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6

100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61  Arizona 39

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0  Arizona 29.1

Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51  Arizona 27

Outlier B: Arizona 34  Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)

 

Thursday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U (7-6)  vs. Army (6-6)

Vegas: S M U by 7

Totals: 52

PiRate: S M U by 7.7

Mean: S M U by 3.2

Bias: S M U by 10.6

100 Sims: S M U 64  Army 36

Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2  Army 20.6

Outlier A: S M U 34  Army 10

Outlier B: Army 24  S M U 16

 

Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

3:20 PM EST

Syracuse (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 47 ½

PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5

Mean: Kansas State by 4.6

Bias: Syracuse by 2.3

100 Sims: Syracuse 53  Kansas State 47

Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1  Kansas State 18.6

Outlier A: Syracuse 24  Kansas State 7

Outlier B: Kansas State 17  Syracuse 3

 

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

6:30 PM EST

Tennessee (6-6)  vs. North Carolina (7-5)

Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½  

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8

Mean: North Carolina by 1.5

Bias: Tennessee by 6.6

100 Sims: Tennessee 50  North Carolina 50

Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5  North Carolina 23.9

Outlier A: Tennessee 30  North Carolina 14

Outlier B: North Carolina 27  Tennessee 12

 

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

10:00 PM EST

Nebraska (10-3)  vs. Washington (6-6)

Vegas: Nebraska by 14

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8

Mean: Nebraska by 11.5

Bias: Nebraska by 5.3

100 Sims: Nebraska 57  Washington 43

Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1  Washington 19.3

Outlier A: Nebraska 27  Washington 6

Outlier B: Washington 23  Nebraska 14

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

12:00 Noon EST

South Florida (7-5)  vs. Clemson (6-6)

Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½

Totals: 40 ½

PiRate: Clemson by 5.1

Mean: Clemson by 3.7

Bias: South Florida by 6.1

100 Sims: South Florida 58  Clemson 42

Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1  Clemson 19.2

Outlier A: South Florida 31  Clemson 12

Outlier B: Clemson 28  South Florida 16

 

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

2:00 PM EST on CBS

Notre Dame (7-5)  vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)

Vegas: Miami by 3

Totals: 47

PiRate: Miami by 6.3

Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2

Bias: Miami by 6.0

100 Sims: Notre Dame 52  Miami 48

Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4  Miami 23.2

Outlier A: Notre Dame 30  Miami 14

Outlier B: Miami 35  Notre Dame 14

 

Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST on ESPN

Central Florida (10-3)  vs. Georgia (6-6)

Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½

Totals: 55 ½

PiRate: Georgia by 12.8

Mean: Georgia by 5.3

Bias: Georgia by 11.3

100 Sims: Georgia 72  Central Florida 28

Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6  Central Florida 17.3

Outlier A: Georgia 38  Central Florida 10

Outlier B: Central Florida 24  Georgia 19

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM EST on ESPN

South Carolina (9-4)  vs. Florida State (9-4)

Vegas: South Carolina by 3

Totals: 55

PiRate: Florida State by 0.4

Mean: South Carolina by 0.5

Bias: Florida State by 1.6

100 Sims: Florida State 52  South Carolina 48

Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7  Florida State 26.6

Outlier A: Florida State 30  South Carolina 16

Outlier B: South Carolina 44  Florida State 17

 

Saturday, January 1

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U

Texas Tech (7-5)  vs. Northwestern (7-5)

Vegas: Texas Tech by 10

Totals: 60

PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5

Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3

Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6

100 Sims: Texas Tech 86  Northwestern 14

Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6  Northwestern 21.2

Outlier A: Texas Tech 45  Northwestern 17

Outlier B: Northwestern 30  Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)

 

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

1:00 PM EST on ABC

Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)

Vegas: Florida by 7 ½  

Totals: 48

PiRate: Florida by 13.2

Mean: Florida by 5.1

Bias: Florida by 5.5

100 Sims: Florida 54  Penn State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6  Penn State 19.8

Outlier A: Florida 28  Penn State 13

Outlier B: Penn State 21  Florida 10

 

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL

1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Michigan State (11-1) vs.  Alabama (9-3)

Vegas: Alabama by 10

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Alabama by 15.5

Mean: Alabama by 10.4

Bias: Alabama by 3.2

100 Sims: Alabama 59  Michigan State 41

Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6  Michigan State 24.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan State 12

Outlier B: Michigan State 35  Alabama 25

 

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM EST on ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4)  vs.  Michigan (7-5)

Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½

Totals: 61

PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3

Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3

Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8

100 Sims: Mississippi State 52  Michigan 48

Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7  Michigan 30.1

Outlier A: Mississippi State 38  Michigan 20

Outlier B: Michigan 36  Mississippi State 27

 

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

T C U (12-0)  vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

Vegas: T C U by 3

Totals: 58 ½

PiRate: T C U by 7.9

Mean: T C U by 5.8

Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6

100 Sims: Wisconsin 54  T C U 46

Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4  T C U 28.8

Outlier A: Wisconsin 40  T C U 24

Outlier B: T C U 34  Wisconsin 24

 

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma (11-2)  vs. Connecticut (8-4)

Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2

Totals: 55

PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7

Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2

Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7

100 Sims: Oklahoma 91  Connecticut 9

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3  Connecticut 14.8

Outlier A: Oklahoma 49  Connecticut 7

Outlier B: Connecticut 27  Oklahoma 23

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December 6, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 132.5 12 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Auburn 131.0 13 0
5 Boise State 128.8 11 1
6 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
7 Oklahoma 127.7 11 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 124.2 11 2
12 Florida State 119.8 9 4
13 South Carolina 119.4 9 4
14 Nebraska 118.9 10 3
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 117.0 9 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Nevada 115.7 12 1
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Florida 115.3 7 5
23 Missouri 115.2 10 2
24t Arizona 115.2 7 5
24t Iowa 115.2 7 5
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-4 119.8
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 11-2 124.2
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 5-2 9-3 117.0
Pittsburgh 5-2 7-5 110.7
Connecticut 5-2 8-4 108.0
South Florida 3-4 7-5 106.9
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-5 4-8 100.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-6 4-8 89.5

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Illinois 4-4 6-6 104.4
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-3 118.9
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 11-2 127.7
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 10-3 102.9
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-6 92.7
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   7-5 108.9
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Miami (O) 7-1 9-4 90.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-3 104.1
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-11 80.4
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 9-0 12-0 132.5
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-5 7-5 115.2
Southern Cal 5-4 8-5 112.0
Arizona St. 4-5 6-6 111.0
Oregon St. 4-5 5-7 109.6
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 5-4 6-6 107.1
U C L A 2-7 4-8 101.8
Washington State 1-8 2-10 94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-4 119.4
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 13-0 131.0
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-2 6-6 87.0
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 6-2 7-5 85.8
Middle Tennessee 5-3 6-6 82.8
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
Florida Atlantic 3-5 4-8 73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 7-1 11-1 128.8
Nevada 7-1 12-1 115.9
Hawaii 7-1 10-3 108.9
Fresno State 5-3 8-4 98.2
Louisiana Tech 4-4 5-7 93.0
Idaho 3-5 6-7 88.1
Utah State 2-6 4-8 88.0
San Jose State 0-8 1-12 78.5
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Navy Army (Philadelphia) 14.4 31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Navy Army  (Philadelphia) 31-23 27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

November 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 131.9 11 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Boise State 130.6 10 1
5 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
6 Auburn 127.5 12 0
7 Oklahoma 127.1 10 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 123.1 10 2
12 South Carolina 122.9 9 3
13 Florida State 120.9 9 3
14 Nebraska 119.5 10 2
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 116.8 8 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Arizona 116.3 7 4
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Nevada 115.3 11 1
23 Florida 115.3 7 5
24 Missouri 115.2 10 2
25 Iowa 115.2 7 5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-3 120.9
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
Coastal Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 10-2 123.1
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0
 

Big East Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 4-2 8-3 116.8
Pittsburgh 4-2 6-5 108.6
Connecticut 4-2 7-4 107.6
South Florida 3-3 7-4 107.3
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-4 4-7 102.8
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-5 4-7 89.7
 

Big Ten

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1
 

Big 12

North Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-2 119.5
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
South Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 10-2 127.1
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4
 

Conference USA

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 9-3 103.2
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-5 92.4
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6
 

Independents

Team Overall Rating
Notre Dame 7-5 108.9
Navy 8-3 102.6
Army 6-5 88.2
 

Mid American Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Miami (O) 7-1 8-4 87.8
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-2 106.9
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9
 

Mountain West Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-10 82.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2
 

Pac-10 Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 8-0 11-0 131.9
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-4 7-4 116.3
Southern Cal 4-4 7-5 111.0
Oregon St. 4-4 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 3-5 5-6 109.9
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 4-4 5-6 106.9
U C L A 2-6 4-7 102.8
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4
 

Southeastern Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-3 122.9
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 12-0 127.5
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1
 

Sunbelt Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-1 6-5 88.4
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 5-2 6-5 82.8
Middle Tennessee 4-3 5-6 81.4
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Florida Atlantic 3-4 4-7 76.7
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
 

Western Athletic Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-1 10-1 130.6
Nevada 6-1 11-1 115.3
Hawaii 7-1 9-3 106.8
Fresno State 5-3 7-4 97.5
Louisiana Tech 4-3 5-6 93.6
Idaho 2-5 5-7 89.3
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-7 1-11 77.3
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9
 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARIZONA Arizona St. 8.9 31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Illinois FRESNO STATE 4.1 31-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)   (Detroit) 19.1 42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Southern Cal U C L A 6.2 34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 2.7 20-17
Oregon OREGON STATE 18.7 45-26
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 10.0 31-21
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 30.1 42-12
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 2.8 24-21
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 10.0 34-24
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.1 30-27
BOISE STATE Utah State 47.4 61-14
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 18.2 35-17
IDAHO San Jose State 14.5 38-23
HAWAII U n l v 28.3 49-21
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 4.6 35-30
Virginia Tech Florida State (Charlotte) 2.2 25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 13.8 35-21
Oklahoma Nebraska (Dallas) 7.6 21-13
 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARIZONA Arizona St. 31-21 27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Illinois FRESNO STATE 34-31 34-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)  (Detroit) 35-24 41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Southern Cal U C L A 31-21 30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 27-24 27-23
Oregon OREGON STATE 49-26 51-19
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 35-27 35-20
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 34-14 34-14
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 34-22 28-26
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-24 34-28
BOISE STATE Utah State 56-20 59-17
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 37-17 35-31
IDAHO San Jose State 42-24 45-28
HAWAII U n l v 49-20 48-14
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 38-24 34-24
Virginia Tech Florida State  (Charlotte) 26-25 27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 34-26 35-30
Oklahoma Nebraska  (Dallas) 21-16 22-20
 

Bowl Projections

Bowl

Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) B Y U 6-6 WAC (#3?) Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 Miami (O) 8-5 WAC #(1) or 2 Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 S. D. State 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Louisville 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 Notre Dame 7-5 ACC #3 N. C. State 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Boston Coll. 7-5 C-USA #6 E C U 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Penn State 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Oklahoma St. 10-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 S M U 7-6 MWC #3-5/Army Army 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 7-5 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 8-4
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 8-4 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 Miami (FL) 7-5 Pac 10 #4 [Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #2 Florida State 9-4
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 7-5
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. 11-1 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Illinois 7-5 SEC #6 Florida 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 T C U 12-0 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Stanford 11-1
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large West Va. 9-3
Sugar BCS SEC Ohio State 11-1 BCS At-Large Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 7-5 MAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Nebraska 10-3 SEC #3-6 W Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Pittsburgh 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Temple 8-4] WAC #1 Nevada 11-1
Championship Game *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

November 22, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 23-27, 2010

The Winning Streak Comes To An End

It had to happen.  We knew we could not go through the entire season with one winning week after another.  Our luck ran dry this weekend.  Our picks went 2-2-1 against the spread, which in our terms, is a losing week, since you lay 10-11 odds when picking straight sides.

 

Perhaps we should not have deviated from our sweetheart teaser picks, but we liked the five games we selected.  Let’s quickly reveal our picks so we can move on and talk college football

 

1. Tennessee -9 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

Okay, if you are one of our regular subscribers to our handicapping service, maybe you did enjoy a winning week.  For, we told you that we felt that the Vols had a 99% chance of covering at -9.  If you decided to make this your only pick, then you went 1-0.

 

Vanderbilt has run out of gas, while Tennessee is on their annual November roll.  The final score was only 24-10, and we had to sweat out a late Vandy run with backup quarterback Jared Funk.

 

2. Ohio State -3 vs. Iowa

Push

This game surprised us a bit.  We felt as if the Buckeyes were ready to pull off a two touchdown win, and when the offense struggled early, we were concerned.  Ohio State is not as strong as they were supposed to be, and they should not have gained ground on Wisconsin in the BCS standings. 

 

3. Texas A&M + 2 ½ vs. Nebraska

WON

Please don’t let Bo Pelini hear this.  We told our subscribers that we had a sneaky suspicion that Nebraska would see a lot of questionable officiating calls go against them in this game, just like it happened against Texas.  The national media has to put on a good face, but we could care less about stepping on toes of the Big 12 Conference.  We warned our fans on Thursday that we suspected this would happen.  The game was considered a tossup, so we felt A&M would win by a touchdown.  It was only by a field goal, but we won any way.

 

4. Cleveland Browns + 1 ½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lost

The Browns’ short flirtation with respectability has gone back into hibernation.  We blew this one royally, thinking the boys from Lake Erie would win by 7-10 points.

 

5. San Francisco 49ers + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Lost

Tampa Bay has proven they are playoff worthy.  San Francisco’s offensive woes continue, and yet they are still in contention in the worst division in the history of NFL football.

 

A Look At The FBS Conference Races and Bowls

There are 35 bowls this year.  Thus, 70 teams need to be bowl eligible.  With two weeks to go in the season, only 64 teams are bowl eligible.  It is a sure thing that at least one or two others will gain bowl eligibility due to the schedule.  What happens if the magic number falls short of 70?  Will the NCAA allow 5-7 teams into the bowls?  Who would want to see a 5-7 and 6-6 team face off in a loser bowl?

 

A 12-team playoff, using the top 11 bowls would leave 24 bowls for the rest of the NCAA.  This would not be a problem.  The bowl that might end up with a 5-7 team would end up with a 7-5 or 8-4 team under a 12-team playoff.

 

The PiRate Ratings have conducted simulated NCAA football playoffs the past two seasons, and we will do so again after the end of the regular season.

 

Let’s look at each conference as it stands today.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech has sewn up the Coastal Division Championship.  They will face either North Carolina State or Florida State.  If N.C. State beats Maryland, they win the division title.  If Maryland wins, Florida State goes to the ACC title game.

 

Nine teams are already bowl eligible, and the conference has eight bowl tie-ins.  Expect all nine teams to land in bowls.

 

 

Big East

No team in this league belongs in a BCS bowl game.  TCU and Boise State are 21 points better than the best team in the Big East.  The cold hard fact is that the winner of this conference will be the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl picks—the Fiesta Bowl. 

 

Pittsburgh has a one game lead over West Virginia and Connecticut.  They would lose a three-way tiebreaker if the three finished 5-2.

 

Connecticut, South Florida, and Syracuse are bowl eligible.  Louisville is one win away, while Cincinnati and Rutgers are still in contention at 4-6.  We think UL will get that sixth win this week against Rutgers, while Cincinnati falls short.  Throw in Notre Dame, which will finish no worse than 6-6, and there will be enough teams to satisfy the league’s allotment.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Three teams are in contention for the Rose Bowl with one week to go.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tied at 6-1.  If they all win this week, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings will get the Rose Bowl bid.  Wisconsin holds a marginal lead over Ohio State.  The Badgers face Northwestern, while the Buckeyes host Michigan.  It will be a close vote if both win.  Michigan State wins a tiebreaker with Wisconsin, while Wisconsin wins a tiebreaker with Ohio State.  If Ohio State and Michigan State finish tied at 7-1, the Buckeyes will be the higher ranked team in the BCS and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

Eight teams are bowl eligible, and there is a decent chance that a second team will get a BCS at-large bid.  That would make nine bowl openings for eight teams, and the need for an at-large representative for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

 

 

 

Big 12

The Big 12 is out of the national championship picture this year.  Nebraska will win the North Division with a win over Colorado or a Missouri loss to Kansas.  Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma to wrap up the South Division, but the Sooners could easily win this game.  If Texas A&M beats Texas, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, it will take five steps into the conference’s tiebreaker rules to determine the representative for the Big 12 Championship Game.  Oklahoma would hold the leg up over the other two.

 

Colorado and Texas need wins to gain bowl eligibility, but it is our opinion that both will lose their finales and miss out.  That will leave eight bowl eligible teams for eight bowls.

 

 

 

Conference USA

In the East, Central Florida is as close to in the league title game as a team can be and not already have it clinched.  UCF only needs to beat hapless Memphis to secure the division flag.  It is a certainty.

 

In the West, SMU controls its own destiny.  However, the Mustangs play at East Carolina this week.  We believe the Pirates will win.  That means Tulsa would capture the flag with a win over Southern Miss.  We will give the Golden Hurricane the edge.

 

Houston needs a win at Texas Tech to gain bowl eligibility, but the Cougars are wounded without their top two quarterbacks.  No bowl for Houston this year.

 

 

 

Independents

Navy is bowl eligible, and the Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  Army is also bowl eligible, and they will get an at-large selection somewhere.  Notre Dame is bowl eligible, and they will either receive one of the Big East bowl bids or an at-large bid.

 

 

Mid-American

As usual, there are always more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids for the MAC.  Ohio, Temple, and Miami (O) from the East and Northern Illinois and Toledo from the West are bowl eligible.  Western Michigan will become bowl eligible with a win at Bowling Green.  That will leave six teams available for three bids.  Expect five of the six to go bowling.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

TCU’s blowout win over New Mexico this week will give the Horned Frogs their second consecutive undefeated regular season finish and at-large selection to a BCS Bowl.  There is a small chance that they could play for the National Championship.  Their BCS ranking will drop by playing the 1-10 Lobos, while Boise State finished on the road against a ranked team.

 

Five teams are bowl eligible, and all five will go to bowls.  That will leave one bowl spot open for an at-large invitee—the New Mexico Bowl.

 

 

 

Pac-10

This is the messy conference.  To start out, Southern Cal is ineligible for a bowl.  Throw in the chance that Stanford will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  Now, top it off with the fact that Arizona is the only other bowl eligible team at this point.  California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, but we believe only one of these five will do it.  That means this league could fall three bids short.

 

 

 

Southeastern

“As the Cam Turns” is the top-rated soap opera in the South during November sweeps.  It just may turn south on Auburn this week.  We think Alabama is going to end the Tigers’ championship hopes this week.  We cannot see any scenario where Auburn would jump Boise State and TCU after losing this late in the season.  It is no gimme that the Tigers can beat South Carolina twice in one season.

 

LSU can grab an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl with a win at Arkansas, but we believe the Razorbacks will put an end to those aspirations.

 

Georgia and Tennessee need victories this week to gain bowl eligibility.  We think both will be victorious.  That will leave 10 bowl eligible teams for nine bowls and an at-large bid.

 

 

 

 

Sunbelt

Somebody has to win this league.  With two weeks left in the season, one for UL-Monroe, no team has earned bowl eligibility.  The schedule guarantees that at least one team will become bowl eligible, and we think at least two will pick up a sixth win.  For a change, Troy may not win the conference championship.

 

 

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has a tough finale at Nevada this week, but we do not believe the boys from Reno have a strong enough defense to slow down the Broncos.  Boise State is our top-rated team, and we feel like they would be a field goal choice over Oregon in a national title game.  A win at Nevada should allow the Broncos to jump over TCU in the BCS standings, and if Auburn loses to Alabama, it should put BSU into the number two slot.

 

Louisiana Tech and Idaho still have remote chances at bowl eligibility, but we think both will fall one game short.  With BSU getting a BCS Bowl bid, the WAC will fall one team short in its bowl obligations. 

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 22, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Boise State 134.6 10 0
2 T C U 132.9 11 0
3 Oregon 132.1 10 0
4 Stanford 129.7 10 1
5 Alabama 127.5 9 2
6 Ohio State 127.1 10 1
7 Oklahoma 127.0 9 2
8 Auburn 126.2 11 0
9 Arkansas 124.4 9 2
10 Virginia Tech 122.8 9 2
11 Wisconsin 122.7 10 1
12 South Carolina 121.1 8 3
13 Texas A&M 118.8 8 3
14 Nebraska 118.8 9 2
15 Florida State 118.2 8 3
16 L S U 118.0 10 1
17t Florida 118.0 7 4
17t Miami (Fla) 118.0 7 4
19 Iowa 117.3 7 4
20 Oklahoma State 116.4 10 1
21 Arizona 116.1 7 3
22 North Carolina 115.6 6 5
23 Georgia 115.5 5 6
24 Missouri 114.9 9 2
25 Mississippi State 114.8 7 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 8-3 118.2
Clemson 4-4 6-5 112.8
North Carolina State 5-2 8-3 111.4
Maryland 4-3 7-4 104.7
Boston College 4-4 6-5 103.9
Wake Forest 1-7 2-9 89.9
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 7-0 9-2 122.8
Miami-FL 5-3 7-4 118.0
North Carolina 3-4 6-5 115.6
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-5 108.7
Virginia 1-6 4-7 95.3
Duke 1-6 3-8 95.1

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 3-2 7-3 114.6
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-4 110.8
Connecticut 3-2 6-4 106.4
South Florida 3-3 6-4 104.5
Cincinnati 2-3 4-6 104.0
Louisville 2-4 5-6 102.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-4 101.1
Rutgers 1-4 4-6 91.1

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 6-1 10-1 127.1
Wisconsin 6-1 10-1 122.7
Iowa 4-3 7-4 117.3
Michigan State 6-1 10-1 110.2
Michigan 3-4 7-4 106.5
Penn State 4-3 7-4 105.1
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Northwestern 3-4 7-4 95.4
Minnesota 1-6 2-9 94.0
Purdue 2-5 4-7 92.5
Indiana 0-7 4-7 88.7

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 5-2 9-2 118.8
Missouri 5-2 9-2 114.9
Kansas State 3-5 6-5 100.7
Colorado 2-5 5-6 100.3
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-6 3-8 88.5
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 5-2 9-2 127.0
Texas A&M 5-2 8-3 118.8
Oklahoma State 6-1 10-1 116.4
Texas 2-5 5-6 106.0
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 6-5 104.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 6-1 8-3 104.8
Southern Mississippi 5-2 8-3 98.6
East Carolina 5-2 6-5 90.2
U A B 3-4 4-7 86.8
Marshall 3-4 4-7 83.6
Memphis 0-7 1-10 69.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 5-2 8-3 98.1
Houston 4-4 5-6 96.5
S M U 5-2 6-5 92.2
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 2-5 3-8 84.0
Tulane 2-5 4-7 74.8

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   6-5 107.0
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-2 8-3 95.2
Ohio U 6-1 8-3 91.7
Miami (O) 6-1 7-4 85.2
Kent St. 3-4 4-7 80.6
Bowling Green 1-6 2-9 77.1
Buffalo 1-6 2-9 71.5
Akron 0-7 0-11 66.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 7-0 9-2 103.9
Toledo 6-1 7-4 88.5
Western Michigan 4-3 5-6 86.7
Central Michigan 2-5 3-8 84.5
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-5 2-9 69.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 7-0 11-0 132.9
Utah 6-1 9-2 111.7
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-2 6-5 104.2
S. D. State 4-3 7-4 102.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-5 2-9 84.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-6 1-10 75.4

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-0 10-0 132.1
Stanford 7-1 10-1 129.7
Arizona 4-3 7-3 116.1
Southern Cal 4-4 7-4 112.9
Oregon St. 4-3 5-5 112.3
California 3-5 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 109.2
Washington 3-4 4-6 105.1
U C L A 2-5 4-6 103.5
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 8-3 121.1
Florida 4-4 7-4 118.0
Georgia 3-5 5-6 115.5
Kentucky 2-5 6-5 106.9
Tennessee 2-5 5-6 105.0
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-9 88.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 5-2 9-2 127.5
Auburn 7-0 11-0 126.2
Arkansas 5-2 9-2 124.4
L S U 6-1 10-1 118.0
Mississippi State 3-4 7-4 114.8
Ole Miss 1-6 4-7 100.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 5-1 5-5 88.1
Arkansas State 4-3 4-7 84.2
Troy 4-2 5-5 82.2
Middle Tennessee 3-3 4-6 79.9
North Texas 3-5 3-8 79.0
Louisiana-Monroe 4-3 5-6 78.9
Florida Atlantic 3-3 4-6 78.2
U. of Louisiana 2-5 2-9 76.8
Western Kentucky 2-5 2-9 75.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-0 10-0 134.6
Nevada 5-1 10-1 111.3
Hawaii 6-1 8-3 106.2
Fresno State 4-3 6-4 97.7
Louisiana Tech 3-3 4-6 94.0
Idaho 2-4 5-6 89.1
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-6 1-10 76.9
New Mexico State 1-6 2-9 72.5

 

 

 
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 23      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Temple MIAMI (O) 7.0 28-21
       
Thursday, November 25      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Texas A&M TEXAS 10.3 24-14
       
Friday, November 26      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Louisville RUTGERS 8.6 28-19
Western Michigan BOWLING GREEN 6.6 27-20
West Virginia PITTSBURGH 1.3 21-20
ALABAMA Auburn 3.8 31-27
Buffalo AKRON 2.6 24-21
TOLEDO Central Michigan 7.0 38-31
Northern Illinois EASTERN MICHIGAN 31.5 45-13
EAST CAROLINA S m u 1.0 35-34
Ohio U KENT STATE 8.6 30-21
ARIZONA STATE U c l a 8.7 26-17
NEBRASKA Colorado 21.5 28-6
TULSA Southern Miss. 2.5 38-35
OREGON Arizona 19.5 44-24
Boise State NEVADA 26.3 46-20
       
Saturday, November 27      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARKANSAS L s u 9.4 35-26
STANFORD Oregon State 20.4 37-17
CONNECTICUT Cincinnati 5.4 26-21
FLORIDA STATE Florida 2.7 27-24
GEORGIA Georgia Tech 9.3 33-24
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 3.7 24-20
Iowa MINNESOTA 20.3 37-17
Mississippi State OLE MISS 11.4 28-17
North Carolina DUKE 18.5 45-26
SYRACUSE Boston College 0.2 17-17 to ot
OHIO STATE Michigan 23.6 44-20
Oklahoma OKLAHOMA STATE 8.1 34-26
Michigan State PENN STATE 2.1 30-28
South Carolina CLEMSON 5.8 34-28
VANDERBILT Wake Forest 2.0 26-24
RICE U a b 0.2 34-34 to ot
Kansas State NORTH TEXAS 18.7 44-25
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 30.0 37-7
WISCONSIN Northwestern 30.3 51-21
FLORIDA INT’L Arkansas State 6.4 34-28
MIAMI (FL) South Florida 16.5 38-21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic 4.2 31-27
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 4.6 26-21
PURDUE Indiana 6.8 38-31
TENNESSEE Kentucky 1.1 35-34
TEXAS TECH Houston 10.7 45-34
TROY Western Kentucky 9.5 38-28
Central Florida MEMPHIS 33.2 40-7
MARSHALL Tulane 11.8 35-23
Missouri Kansas (Kansas City) 26.4 40-14
Hawaii NEW MEXICO STATE 30.7 45-14
UTAH B y u 10.0 34-24
T c u NEW MEXICO 55.0 55-0
SAN DIEGO STATE U n l v 20.9 42-21
Louisiana Tech SAN JOSE STATE 14.1 31-17
SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame 8.9 33-24
FRESNO STATE Idaho 11.6 38-26

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 23      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Temple MIAMI (O) 27-20 27-16
       
Thursday, November 25      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Texas A&M TEXAS 23-13 20-14
       
Friday, November 26      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Louisville RUTGERS 24-21 28-17
Western Michigan BOWLING GREEN 35-28 38-16
PITTSBURGH West Virginia 17-14 17-14
ALABAMA Auburn 31-27 31-28
Buffalo AKRON 23-20 23-20
TOLEDO Central Michigan 38-30 41-21
Northern Illinois EASTERN MICHIGAN 45-19 49-17
EAST CAROLINA S m u 36-34 34-38
Ohio U KENT STATE 35-23 33-14
ARIZONA STATE U c l a 31-20 27-20
NEBRASKA Colorado 28-9 23-17
TULSA Southern Miss. 41-37 44-34
OREGON Arizona 42-23 41-23
Boise State NEVADA 42-30 60-31
       
Saturday, November 27      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARKANSAS L s u 31-27 31-20
STANFORD Oregon State 37-20 38-19
CONNECTICUT Cincinnati 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA STATE Florida 30-27 30-27
GEORGIA Georgia Tech 31-20 28-24
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 24-20 27-17
Iowa MINNESOTA 30-13 34-10
Mississippi State OLE MISS 33-25 34-24
North Carolina DUKE 35-24 35-24
SYRACUSE Boston College 16-14 19-17
OHIO STATE Michigan 37-17 38-24
OKLAHOMA STATE Oklahoma 30-27 27-31
Michigan State PENN STATE 30-27 20-23
South Carolina CLEMSON 35-30 36-20
VANDERBILT Wake Forest 23-17 20-23
RICE U a b 35-35 to ot 38-36
Kansas State NORTH TEXAS 41-21 45-24
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 35-9 31-14
WISCONSIN Northwestern 45-24 45-24
FLORIDA INT’L Arkansas State 34-27 34-27
MIAMI (FL) South Florida 30-17 30-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic 27-26 24-23
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 35-27 35-21
PURDUE Indiana 38-31 37-28
TENNESSEE Kentucky 34-31 35-30
TEXAS TECH Houston 41-32 41-28
TROY Western Kentucky 40-28 35-31
Central Florida MEMPHIS 42-14 47-10
MARSHALL Tulane 35-28 32-31
Missouri Kansas (Kansas City) 41-17 31-13
Hawaii NEW MEXICO STATE 45-17 44-17
UTAH B y u 37-24 28-24
T c u NEW MEXICO 50-7 56-0
SAN DIEGO STATE U n l v 44-24 44-20
Louisiana Tech SAN JOSE STATE 27-16 28-16
SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame 34-27 28-25
FRESNO STATE Idaho 38-30 38-26

 

 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) [Temple 9-3] WAC (#3?) [Army 6-6]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Toledo 9-3 WAC #(1) or 2 Fresno St. 7-5
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 S M U 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 East Carolina 7-5
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Kentucky 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Boston Coll. 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports Big East #2 West Va. 8-4 ACC #3 Miami 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Georgia Tech 6-6 C-USA #6 U T E P 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Nebraska 10-3 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 Southern Miss 8-4 MWC #3-5/Army Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 8-4 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 7-5 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 N.C. State 9-4 Pac 10 #4 [Notre Dame 6-6]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Florida 7-5 C-USA #1 Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 L S U 10-2 ACC #2 Florida St. 9-3
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 8-4
Capital One Big 10 #2 Mich. St. 11-1 SEC #2 Alabama 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Penn State 7-5 SEC #6 Miss. State 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Pittsburgh 8-4
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large T C U 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Ohio State 11-1
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Ohio U 9-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Okla. St. 10-2 SEC #3-6 W Arkansas 10-2
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Louisville 6-6 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Miami (O) 7-5] WAC #1 Nevada 11-2
Nat’l Championship *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Boise State 12-0

 

All CAPS and Italics—Team has already accepted bid to this bowl

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large entries.

November 15, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 16-20, 2010

Another Great Week Versus Spread

2010 is proving to be a season to remember for picking games against the spread.  The mediocrity in the middle has made picking games much easier when using 10-point and 13-point Sweetheart Teasers.

 

As we informed our subscription customers before we sent out our picks for the week, we will be playing fewer games per week now that a winning season has been guaranteed. 

 

Our most recent picks went 4-1, bringing our total for the season to 60-24-3 for 71.4%.  We have been happy and pleased with our ability to average about 60% success over the course of time, so this is definitely an anomaly.  Let’s look at how the picks played out:

 

1. 10-point Teaser:

Boise State -24 ½ vs. Idaho, West Virginia +5 vs. Cincinnati, and Syracuse + 7 ½ vs. Rutgers

WON

 

We had Boise State picked to win by 40 points, and we were not the least bit worried about the Broncos covering at 24 and a hook.  The other two picks in the parlay let us play what we thought were solid favorites now getting points.  We figured that both Cincinnati and Rutgers would lose by more than a touchdown.

 

2. 13-point Teaser:

Northwestern +22 ½ vs. Iowa, Michigan Pk vs. Purdue, Indiana +34 ½ vs. Wisconsin, and Minnesota +33 ½ vs. Illinois

Lost

 

We really liked this Big Ten parlay.  We figured Northwestern would keep the game close against Iowa and lose by a touchdown or less, so when they upset the Hawkeyes, we were happy.  We figured that Michigan was 10-14 points better than Purdue, and even though Denard Robinson had a weak game, the Wolverines prevailed by 11.  We never figured that Indiana would lose by 63 to Wisconsin.  We had predicted the Badgers to win by three touchdowns, so this one lost it for us.  We called for Minnesota to battle Illinois to the wire and have a shot at the upset.  We were right, but it did not matter.  It may matter for Ron Zook.  Losses to Northwestern and Fresno State will send him to the unemployment line.

 

3. 13-point Teaser:

Oklahoma -2 vs. Texas Tech, Texas A&M +10 ½ vs. Baylor, Kansas +48 vs. Nebraska, and Colorado +11 vs. Iowa State

WON

 

We loved this Big 12-themed parlay.  We called for Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech by at least 20 points, and the Sooners put an exclamation point on the deLeaching of the Red Raiders.  We stated that it was our opinion that Texas A&M was still not getting enough respect and figured they would beat Baylor outright.  We believed that Nebraska would slaughter Kansas but by more like 35 and not 48 points.  When the Cornhuskers only won by 17, we were winners in this parlay.  As for Colorado, the Buffalos were two-point picks over Iowa State, and they were playing for deposed coach Dan Hawkins.  Getting 11 points was more than we could have hoped for, and CU won outright.

 

4. 10-point Teaser

Tennessee Titans & Miami Dolphins Over 33, Detroit Lions & Buffalo Bills Under 54, and Cincinnati Bengals & Indianapolis Colts Under 57

WON

 

This totals parlay of pro teams was our strategy pick of the week.  We figured that with Randy Moss added to a lineup that was already scoring close to 28 points per game, and with the Titans having problems stopping the running game, both teams would top 21 points.  Miami controlled the game after the first quarter, and more than enough points were scored.  The Lions-Bills pick was more due to climate forecast.  Heavy snow was in the forecast, and we figured the colder weather would make this a defensive struggle.  As for the Bengals-Colts game, we did not think Cincinnati could score 17 points in this game, and we did not see Indy getting to 40.  It was much closer than we thought it would be.

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals Over 31 ½, Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants Under 55 ½, and St. Louis Rams & San Francisco 49ers Over 28

WON

 

We called for the Seattle-Arizona game to be a shootout with little defense, and we were surprised with the ease in which Seattle won.  Still, this was an easy cover.  We must admit that we blew the Giants-Cowboys game.  We figured New York would win by 21 points, but we were okay because this game narrowly covered when Dallas reacted to Jason Garrett’s coaching.  We played the Rams-49ers game thinking that both teams would top 14 points and were happy to see both do exactly that.

 

Coaching Carousel

At this point in the season, we already know there are openings at Colorado and Minnesota.  It looks like there will be an openings at New Mexico and Vanderbilt, and there will be others that will become available in the next three weeks.  Here are the candidates we hear are in the mix for these jobs:

 

1. New Mexico—The Lobos were not happy with minor bowl appearances almost every season under Rocky Long.  They ended up with back-to-back double digit loss seasons with Mike Locksley.  Mike Leach has been rumored here for a month, but we believe Leach will spend one more season out of the mix before somebody is brave enough to approach him.  We believe that this job will go to a coordinator at the college level.  It is not a glamour job.  Basketball is king in Albuquerque.

 

2. Colorado—Several names have been mentioned in this search, including former coach Bill McCartney, former Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, Georgia coach Mark Richt, and Nebraska offensive coordinator Shawn Watson.  LSU coach Les Miles has been rumored by the Denver Post.  We believe that McCartney may have a legitimate chance to get back into coaching after having retired 17 years ago.  Dick Vermeil proved you can take off 17 years and come back to the game.  Bill Snyder has proved you can come back at age 70 and win.

 

3. Minnesota—San Diego State’s Brady Hoke and Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen, Miami coach Randy Shannon,  former coaches Phil Fulmer and Mark Mangino are on the radar in Minneapolis.  The Gophers are pleased with Tubby Smith on the hardwoods, and it could be that another former SEC coach joins him in the great white north.  We think Fulmer could be the leading candidate. 

 

4. Vanderbilt—It is becoming apparent that Robbie Caldwell will indeed be a one-season stopgap.  However, this school does not have much to offer a big-time coach.  Gary Barnett and Tyrone Willingham turned this job down the last time it was available.  The Commodores just don’t have what it takes to entice a big-time coach to commit coaching suicide here.  We believe that a head coach from the Football Championship Series will get this job if it becomes available.  James Madison coach Mickey Matthews is apparently on the radar.  Miami offensive coordinator Mark Whipple could emerge as a candidate in this job as well.  Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo could be a dark horse candidate, but the spread option may not be a great choice for the SEC.  SEC linebackers and defensive backs can make enough big plays to grind the option to a halt when it is the lone weapon.  That is why no teams use it today.

 

The PiRate Ratings

Once again, there is a change at the top.  Oregon lost to Cal in every regard except the final score.  Who ever heard of a false start on a placekicker?  Then, he misses a 29-yarder.  We believe Boise State would beat Cal by 21-28 points if the Broncos had played them.  So, Boise State is our new number one. 

 

Remember, our ratings look forward and not backward like the polls.  When you see a team ranked in our top 25 but with a losing record, it is because we believe that is where they belong in the mix for the next week’s games.  Georgia is 5-6, but we still have them as one of our top 25.  That is because they are only 12 points weaker than Alabama and Auburn on a neutral field.

 

Overall, except for the top five or six teams, this is the weakest college football season since 1984.  That year, Brigham Young won the national championship.  Could it be “the year” for Boise State or TCU?

 

NCAA Top 25 November 15, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Boise State 133.4 9 0
2 T C U 132.9 11 0
3 Oregon 132.1 10 0
4 Ohio State 126.8 9 1
5 Stanford 126.7 9 1
6 Alabama 126.5 8 2
7 Auburn 126.2 11 0
8 Oklahoma 125.8 8 2
9 Arkansas 125.3 8 2
10 Virginia Tech 122.4 8 2
11 Wisconsin 121.6 9 1
12 South Carolina 120.4 7 3
13 Nebraska 119.5 9 1
14 Miami (Fla) 118.9 7 3
15 L S U 118.8 9 1
16 Florida State 118.5 7 3
17 Texas A&M 118.1 7 3
18 Iowa 117.6 7 3
19 North Carolina 116.5 6 4
20 Arizona 116.1 7 3
21 Florida 116.0 6 4
22 Southern Cal 115.5 7 3
23 Georgia 115.5 5 6
24 Missouri 115.4 8 2
25 Oklahoma State 115.3 9 1
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 5-2 7-3 118.5
Clemson 3-4 5-5 112.5
North Carolina State 4-2 7-3 110.5
Boston College 3-4 5-5 104.7
Maryland 4-2 7-3 104.4
Wake Forest 1-6 2-8 90.2
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 6-0 8-2 122.4
Miami-FL 5-2 7-3 118.9
North Carolina 3-3 6-4 116.5
Georgia Tech 3-4 5-5 109.1
Duke 1-5 3-7 94.7
Virginia 1-5 4-6 94.5

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 2-2 6-3 114.0
Pittsburgh 3-1 5-4 110.4
Connecticut 2-2 5-4 105.3
South Florida 3-2 6-3 104.9
Louisville 2-3 5-5 103.3
Syracuse 4-2 7-3 102.2
Cincinnati 1-3 3-6 101.7
Rutgers 1-3 4-5 93.4

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 5-1 9-1 126.8
Wisconsin 5-1 9-1 121.6
Iowa 4-2 7-3 117.6
Michigan State 5-1 9-1 111.5
Michigan 3-3 7-3 107.6
Penn State 3-3 6-4 105.4
Illinois 3-4 5-5 104.1
Northwestern 3-3 7-3 96.9
Minnesota 1-6 2-9 94.0
Purdue 2-4 4-6 91.2
Indiana 0-6 4-6 88.4

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 5-1 9-1 119.5
Missouri 4-2 8-2 115.4
Kansas State 3-4 6-4 101.6
Colorado 1-5 4-6 99.4
Iowa State 3-4 5-6 94.4
Kansas 1-5 3-7 89.6
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 4-2 8-2 125.8
Texas A&M 4-2 7-3 118.1
Oklahoma State 5-1 9-1 115.3
Baylor 4-3 7-4 106.5
Texas 2-5 4-6 105.7
Texas Tech 3-5 5-5 103.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 5-1 7-3 102.3
Southern Mississippi 4-2 7-3 96.9
East Carolina 5-1 6-4 93.7
U A B 2-4 3-7 87.0
Marshall 3-3 4-6 84.2
Memphis 0-6 1-9 68.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 4-2 7-3 98.7
Houston 4-3 5-5 98.2
S M U 4-2 5-5 91.6
U T E P 3-4 6-5 85.4
Rice 1-5 2-8 80.5
Tulane 2-4 4-6 78.3

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   5-5 106.2
Navy   7-3 103.0
Army   6-4 89.0

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-1 8-2 96.5
Ohio U 5-1 7-3 90.4
Miami (O) 5-1 6-4 86.4
Kent St. 3-3 4-6 84.2
Bowling Green 1-5 2-8 77.7
Buffalo 1-5 2-8 73.1
Akron 0-6 0-10 65.2
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 6-0 8-2 101.6
Toledo 5-1 6-4 87.9
Central Michigan 2-5 3-8 84.5
Western Michigan 3-3 4-6 83.1
Ball State 3-4 4-7 76.2
Eastern Michigan 1-5 1-9 68.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 7-0 11-0 132.9
Utah 5-1 8-2 112.3
Air Force 4-3 7-4 106.3
B Y U 4-2 5-5 103.9
S. D. State 4-2 7-3 101.8
UNLV 2-4 2-8 85.0
Colo. State 2-5 3-8 84.6
Wyoming 0-7 2-9 84.2
New Mexico 1-5 1-9 75.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-0 10-0 132.1
Stanford 6-1 9-1 126.7
Arizona 4-3 7-3 116.1
Southern Cal 4-3 7-3 115.5
California 3-4 5-5 113.2
Oregon St. 3-3 4-5 109.7
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 109.2
U C L A 2-4 4-5 106.1
Washington 2-4 3-6 103.5
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 7-3 120.4
Florida 4-4 6-4 116.0
Georgia 3-5 5-6 115.5
Kentucky 2-5 6-5 106.9
Tennessee 1-5 4-6 105.2
Vanderbilt 1-6 2-8 88.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 5-2 8-2 126.5
Auburn 7-0 11-0 126.2
Arkansas 4-2 8-2 125.3
L S U 5-1 9-1 118.8
Mississippi State 3-3 7-3 113.9
Ole Miss 1-5 4-6 100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 4-1 4-5 86.6
Arkansas State 4-3 4-6 83.8
Troy 4-2 5-4 82.9
North Texas 3-4 3-7 80.2
Middle Tennessee 2-3 3-6 80.2
Florida Atlantic 3-3 4-5 78.5
U. of Louisiana 2-4 2-8 78.3
Louisiana-Monroe 3-3 4-6 77.7
Western Kentucky 2-4 2-8 75.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 5-0 9-0 133.4
Nevada 4-1 9-1 110.3
Hawaii 5-1 7-3 104.9
Fresno State 4-2 6-3 98.9
Louisiana Tech 3-3 4-6 94.0
Utah State 2-4 4-6 89.5
Idaho 1-4 4-6 85.8
San Jose State 0-5 1-9 78.2
New Mexico State 1-5 2-8 73.5

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 16      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
TEMPLE Ohio U 9.1 31-22
       
Wednesday, November 17      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Miami (O) AKRON 19.2 31-12
TOLEDO Bowling Green 12.7 37-24
       
Thursday, November 18      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
WASHINGTON U c l a 0.4 28-28 to ot
Air Force U N L V 18.3 35-17
       
Friday, November 19      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
BOISE STATE Fresno State 38.0 55-17
       
Saturday, November 20      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
COLORADO Kansas State 0.8 27-26
Pittsburgh SOUTH FLORIDA 2.5 27-24
GEORGIA TECH Duke 17.4 44-27
Missouri IOWA STATE 18.0 38-20
Penn State Indiana    (Landover, MD) 18.5 33-14
West Virginia LOUISVILLE 7.7 28-20
Middle Tennessee WESTERN KY. 1.8 33-31
BOSTON COLLEGE Virginia 13.2 27-14
Florida State MARYLAND 11.1 31-20
MICHIGAN STATE Purdue 23.3 40-17
Wisconsin MICHIGAN 11.0 38-27
NORTH CAROLINA N. Carolina State 8.5 28-19
Clemson WAKE FOREST 19.8 34-14
Connecticut SYRACUSE 0.1 20-20 to ot
TULSA U t e p 16.3 38-22
Tennessee VANDERBILT 14.5 35-20
Oklahoma BAYLOR 16.3 37-21
East Carolina RICE 10.2 41-31
TEXAS A&M Nebraska 1.6 26-24
TEXAS Florida Atlantic 30.2 37-7
Florida Int’l LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 5.3 31-26
Arkansas MISSISSIPPI STATE 8.4 38-30
CINCINNATI Rutgers 11.3 35-24
Ohio State IOWA 6.2 24-18
Oklahoma State KANSAS 22.7 33-10
Virginia Tech MIAMI-FL 0.5 25-24
LOUISIANA-MONROE North Texas 0.0 30-30 to ot
SOUTH CAROLINA Troy 40.5 55-14
Illinois N’western (Wrigley Field) 6.2 34-28
Northern Illinois BALL STATE 22.4 38-16
BUFFALO Eastern Michigan 7.8 35-27
WESTERN MICHIGAN Kent State 1.9 33-31
WYOMING Colorado State 2.6 31-28
UTAH STATE Idaho 6.7 38-31
S M U Marshall 10.4 34-24
Stanford CALIFORNIA 11.5 28-16
NAVY Arkansas State 22.2 49-27
Central Florida TULANE 21.0 38-17
U A B Memphis 21.1 40-19
NEVADA New Mexico State 39.8 47-7
B Y U New Mexico 31.2 41-10
Notre Dame Army  (Yankee Stadium) 17.2 27-10
SOUTHERN MISS Houston 1.7 33-31
L S U Ole Miss 21.7 35-13
Southern Cal OREGON STATE 2.8 30-27
Utah SAN DIEGO STATE 7.5 38-30
HAWAII San Jose State 30.2 47-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 16      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
TEMPLE Ohio U 31-21 26-24
       
Wednesday, November 17      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Miami (O) AKRON 34-21 27-13
TOLEDO Bowling Green 40-28 38-20
       
Thursday, November 18      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
U c l a WASHINGTON 30-30 to ot 27-24
Air Force U N L V 35-17 35-14
       
Friday, November 19      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
BOISE STATE Fresno State 47-20 48-17
       
Saturday, November 20      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Kansas State COLORADO 28-23 23-26
Pittsburgh SOUTH FLORIDA 24-21 20-26
GEORGIA TECH Duke 38-28 37-28
Missouri IOWA STATE 35-24 34-17
Penn State Indiana    (Landover, MD) 27-14 41-17
West Virginia LOUISVILLE 24-21 20-21
WESTERN KY. Middle Tennessee 30-27 31-28
BOSTON COLLEGE Virginia 25-16 24-17
Florida State MARYLAND 27-24 23-26
MICHIGAN STATE Purdue 38-16 37-16
Wisconsin MICHIGAN 38-31 44-31
NORTH CAROLINA N. Carolina State 25-24 24-21
Clemson WAKE FOREST 35-21 38-17
SYRACUSE Connecticut 20-14 20-16
TULSA U t e p 41-24 45-28
Tennessee VANDERBILT 28-20 41-13
Oklahoma BAYLOR 38-30 42-24
East Carolina RICE 47-35 52-21
Nebraska TEXAS A&M 31-30 24-30
TEXAS Florida Atlantic 28-9 31-20
Florida Int’l LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 38-30 41-23
Arkansas MISSISSIPPI STATE 31-27 35-20
CINCINNATI Rutgers 28-24 28-27
Ohio State IOWA 26-23 30-20
Oklahoma State KANSAS 40-17 45-13
Virginia Tech MIAMI-FL 27-27 to ot 24-20
LOUISIANA-MONROE North Texas 34-31 35-33
SOUTH CAROLINA Troy 40-14 45-20
Northwestern Illinois  (Wrigley Field) 28-27 35-31
Northern Illinois BALL STATE 44-24 48 -16
BUFFALO Eastern Michigan 34-27 34-30
WESTERN MICHIGAN Kent State 30-27 31-27
WYOMING Colorado St. 28-27 21-27
UTAH STATE Idaho 34-32 40-30
S M U Marshall 35-26 35-28
Stanford CALIFORNIA 28-19 27-20
NAVY Arkansas State 41-24 42-24
Central Florida TULANE 38-24 38-24
U A B Memphis 45-28 44-24
NEVADA New Mexico State 52-16 51-17
B Y U New Mexico 34-7 47-17
Notre Dame Army  (Yankee Stadium) 26-17 28-17
SOUTHERN MISS Houston 37-31 37-32
L S U Ole Miss 35-13 27-10
Southern Cal OREGON STATE 31-26 38-20
Utah SAN DIEGO STATE 34-30 31-34
HAWAII San Jose State 49-20 56-17

 

 

Looking At The Bowls

Pity the bowls with Pac-10 tie-ins.  It looks like Oregon will play in the National Championship Game, and Stanford could easily earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid.  Only Arizona and California could be eligible for all the remaining bowls.  Southern Cal is not eligible, and it looks like a strong possibility that Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington will not become bowl eligible.

 

The Big Ten could be looking at two BCS bowl teams, so they could come up one team shy in meeting its bowl obligations.

 

The Mid-American Conference will have five bowl eligible teams with seven or more wins, so expect the MAC to get two extra bids as at-large teams.

 

Army needs one win to virtually guarantee the Black Knights a bowl bid.

 

The SEC could find itself with just one BCS bowl member if Arkansas beats LSU.  If Georgia beats Georgia Tech and Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky, 10 teams could be available for nine bowl spots.  Expect a 6-6 Kentucky team to become the top at-large candidate from among the 6-6 teams.

 

We believe the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conference could produce one extra bowl eligible team than they have spots available, so those two teams would become very attractive.

 

[Teams in brackets are at-large selections]
Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) [Connecticut 6-6] WAC (#3?) [Miami (O) 8-5]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Toledo 8-4 WAC #(1) or 2 Nevada 10-2
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 SMU 6-6
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Pittsburgh 7-5 C-USA #4-6 Sou. Miss 8-4
Las Vegas MWC #1 Utah 9-3 Pac 10 #5 [Temple 9-3]
Poinsettia MWC #2 S. Diego St. 9-3 Navy or WAC Navy 8-4
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 Hawaii 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Boston Coll. 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 S. Florida 8-4 ACC #3 Florida St. 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Northwestern 8-4
Military ACC #8 Georgia Tech 6-6 C-USA #6 E. Carolina 8-4
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 6-6
Alamo Big 12 #3 Oklahoma 9-3 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 UTEP 6-6 MWC #3-5/Army BYU 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Notre Dame 6-6 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 N. C. State 8-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 Maryland 8-4 Big East #3-4 West Va. 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 Miami (F) 8-4 Pac 10 #4 [Kentucky 6-6]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Florida 7-5 C-USA #1 Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Arkansas 10-2 ACC #2 N. Carolina 8-4
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #6-7 Michigan 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St.7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Penn St. 8-4
Capital One Big 10 #2 Mich. St. 10-2 SEC #2 Alabama 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Iowa 8-4 SEC #6 Miss. St. 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma St. 12-1 BCS At-Large Syracuse 9-3
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large TCU 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Ohio St. 11-1
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Ohio U 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Nebraska 10-3 SEC #3-6 W LSU 10-2
Birmingham Big East #5 Louisville 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Army 7-5] WAC #1 Fresno St. 7-5
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Boise St. 12-0
         
         
         

 

November 8, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 9-13, 2010

We’re In The Money

2010 has been a banner year for the PiRate Rankings.  Our picks against the spread for our customers have been hitting at better than 66.7% all year, but still we were in total shock when this past weekend’s games brought us an incredible 9-1-1 record.  For the year, our record moves to 56-23-3 for an incredible 70.9%.

 

It’s always nice to hear from you if you purchased our picks for the season back in August.  Why have we been so successful this year?  We believe it is the incredible parity in the NFL and a great deal of mediocrity in the NCAA.  So many of the NFL games have been close, and so many of the college teams after the top four or five are weaker than in past years.  So, when you play a 13-point teaser, it is like having gold in your hands if you know a little about numbers and football percentages.  Let’s take a look at our picks from this past weekend.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

Air Force +6 vs. Army, Miami (Fl) +5 ½ vs. Maryland, Texas A&M +16 ½ vs. Oklahoma, and Kansas State +16 ½ vs. Texas

WON

We had Air Force rated as a solid favorite over Army.  The Black Knights are enjoying their best season in years, but they do not have enough offense to face a potent Air Force team.  We figured the Falcons would win by 10-12 points, and even that was an understatement.

 

We felt that Miami had about a 65% chance of beating Maryland outright, so getting 5 ½ made us feel like it was a 95% chance of covering.  Our statement to our subscribers was, “Maryland’s record is too deceiving.  They could drop four in a row to finish 6-6.”

 

We are not about to tell you that we called for A&M to beat Oklahoma by two touchdowns, but we told our subscribers that, “Oklahoma cannot win this game by more than 10 points.”

 

As for the Kansas State-Texas game, we did call for KSU to win outright.  Getting 16 ½ points was pure gravy.

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Nevada +2 vs. Idaho, California -1 vs. Washington State, Stanford +4 vs. Arizona, and TCU +8 ½ vs. Utah

WON

We went with four clear favorites over four weaker opponents and got points in three of the four plays in the parlay.  We felt that all four would win by double digits, and even though Cal only won by seven, we easily won this teaser.

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Indiana +27 vs. Iowa, Michigan +6 ½ vs. Illinois, Wisconsin -10 vs. Purdue, and Arkansas +14 vs. South Carolina

WON

We were wrong in predicting how the Iowa-Indiana game would turn out, but it still won for us.  We expected a 35-24 type game and not the low scoring affair that happened.  As for Michigan-Illinois, we had to sweat this out for a while.  We expected the shootout, but we thought Michigan would win 42-31.  Tate Forcier pulled this one out for us.  He has to be the best number two QB in the nation.  Wisconsin needed to go well into the 3rd quarter before taking over this game, but they won by the same 21 points we predicted.  We called for Arkansas to outscore South Carolina.  We were looking for a 35-31 win, so the 21-point blowout was just fine for us.

 

4. Florida -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

We consider ourselves experts in the plight of poor Vanderbilt, as our founder grew up watching them play week after week.  He told us that Vanderbilt would be down 35 points by halftime, and he was off by six.  It was 41-0!

 

5. Louisiana Tech Pk vs. Fresno State

Loss

This is the one game we lost, and we thought it was one of our strongest plays of the week.  This is one of Fresno’s weaker teams in this run of winning years.  Thinking that a long trip to the Deep South might be a little too much, we went with Tech to win and missed it.

 

6. Tennessee -20 ½ vs. Memphis

WON

Again, we deferred to our founder and relied on his information in the Volunteer State.  He believed that Tennessee was better than an average C-USA team, and the average C-USA team was more than three touchdowns better than Memphis.  He also told us that Tennessee is 10-points better in November than in any other month.  That was good enough for us.

 

7. Buffalo Bills +3 vs. Chicago Bears

Push (Tie)

The Bears edged the Bills by a field goal to make this game a push.  We felt that Buffalo would break through for its first win playing on foreign soil.

 

8. Buffalo Bills & Chicago Bears OVER 40 ½

WON

We won the other part of this game by predicting it to be a 28-24 final.  The 41 points was a razor thin margin to win by, but we have lost our share of games by a point or half-point in the past, and those still counted as losses.

 

9. Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. Minnesota Vikings

WON

With the Vikings full of dissension, and Brett Favre tossing more interceptions than touchdowns, we thought the Minnesota defense would give up too many points, even to the lowly Cardinals.  Favre had a great day, but he tossed two interceptions.  The game stayed close, and Arizona almost won it outright.

 

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Atlanta Falcons OVER 44 ½

WON

We called this game almost exactly correct.  We called for the Falcons to win 28-24, but even though the actual final was a bit lower, it covered the total.

 

11. Green Bay Packers -7 ½ vs. Dallas Cowboys

WON

This was a gift from the odds makers.  Dallas is as weak as Carolina, but the public perception is that they are not.  Without Tony Romo, the spread should have been 13 ½ or even more. 

 

A New Number One

The PiRate Rankings have a new number one team.  TCU vaulted to first place after beating an undefeated Top 10 team on the road by 40 points.  This was a Utah team that proved it could beat Iowa State in Ames by several touchdowns more than Nebraska was able to do.

 

The Horned Frogs, unlike Auburn and Oregon, are equally strong on both offense and defense.  Boise State is proving to be the same.  We believe that both TCU and Boise State would defeat Oregon and Auburn in a national semifinal if there were playoffs.  The two non-automatic qualifiers are the two best teams in the land, even if our own PiRate Ratings has Oregon rated a little above Boise State.

 

The current BCS is just not acceptable as a real method of choosing the two best teams.  The two best teams should be the two teams playing the best.  Oregon and Auburn are both one half of a real juggernaut.  Neither has a championship defense.  Boise State and TCU have both a championship offense and defense.

 

What else do the MWC and WAC undefeated teams have to prove?  Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, and Utah massacred Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when they were given the chance.  Previously, Utah won its other BCS Bowl game in the 2004 season.

 

Here is where the BCS is flawed.  You have heard us say this before.  If you took the entire First and Second Team All-American squads and put them in a San Jose State uniform, and the Spartans went 12-0, they would not get the chance to play for the National Championship, even though it would be clear that they were 21 points better than any other team.  The National Championship Game should have the two best teams, or it is bogus.

 

The NCAA elite do not want to include the TCU’s and Boise State’s.  It is a corrupt system, and the PiRates are all about waging war against elitist corruption.  Wait until you see what we dictate for the bowls.  It is the only way to end this primitive system for selecting a national champion.

 

NCAA Top 25 November 8, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 134.5 9 0
2 Oregon 134.3 9 0
3 Boise State 132.2 8 0
4 Stanford 127.5 8 1
5 Ohio State 125.8 8 1
6t Arkansas 125.8 7 2
6t Alabama 125.8 7 2
8 Auburn 125.1 10 0
9 Oklahoma 123.2 7 2
10 Iowa 121.1 7 2
11 Virginia Tech 120.9 7 2
12 Nebraska 120.3 8 1
13 Florida State 119.1 6 3
14 Florida 119.0 6 3
15 Wisconsin 118.6 8 1
16 L S U 117.0 8 1
17 Arizona 117.6 7 2
18 North Carolina 117.5 6 3
19 Texas A&M 116.8 6 3
20 South Carolina 116.8 6 3
21 Georgia 116.6 5 5
22 Utah 116.0 8 1
23 Miami (Fla) 115.9 6 3
24 Missouri 115.9 7 2
25 Oregon State 115.5 4 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-2 6-3 119.1
Clemson 3-3 5-4 111.9
North Carolina State 3-2 6-3 107.9
Boston College 2-4 4-5 105.0
Maryland 3-2 6-3 102.3
Wake Forest 1-5 2-7 93.3
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 5-0 7-2 120.9
North Carolina 3-2 6-3 117.5
Miami-FL 4-2 6-3 115.9
Georgia Tech 3-3 5-4 112.6
Virginia 1-4 4-5 96.1
Duke 1-4 3-6 94.4

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Pittsburgh 3-0 5-3 111.5
West Virginia 1-2 5-3 111.5
Cincinnati 1-2 3-5 105.0
Connecticut 1-2 4-4 104.2
Louisville 2-2 5-4 104.0
South Florida 2-2 5-3 103.7
Syracuse 3-2 6-3 101.2
Rutgers 1-2 4-4 93.9

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 4-1 8-1 125.8
Iowa 4-1 7-2 121.1
Wisconsin 4-1 8-1 118.6
Michigan State 5-1 9-1 111.5
Michigan 2-3 6-3 106.7
Penn State 3-2 6-3 106.1
Illinois 3-3 5-4 106.1
Northwestern 2-3 6-3 95.9
Indiana 0-5 4-5 92.2
Purdue 2-3 4-5 91.6
Minnesota 0-6 1-9 91.5

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 4-1 8-1 120.3
Missouri 3-2 7-2 115.9
Kansas State 3-3 6-3 101.1
Colorado 0-5 3-6 97.8
Iowa State 3-3 5-5 96.0
Kansas 1-4 3-6 88.8
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 3-2 7-2 123.2
Texas A&M 3-2 6-3 116.8
Oklahoma State 4-1 8-1 112.8
Texas 2-4 4-5 108.7
Baylor 4-2 7-3 107.8
Texas Tech 3-4 5-4 105.5

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 5-0 7-2 104.7
Southern Mississippi 3-2 6-3 94.5
East Carolina 4-1 5-4 93.0
U A B 2-3 3-6 87.7
Marshall 2-3 3-6 84.5
Memphis 0-5 1-8 68.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-2 5-4 99.4
Tulsa 3-2 6-3 98.0
S M U 4-2 5-5 91.6
U T E P 3-4 6-4 84.4
Rice 1-4 2-7 80.8
Tulane 1-4 3-6 77.7

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Navy   6-3 105.4
Notre Dame   4-5 103.5
Army   5-4 88.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-1 8-2 96.5
Ohio U 5-1 7-3 90.4
Miami (O) 4-1 5-4 86.5
Kent St. 3-3 4-5 85.0
Bowling Green 1-4 2-7 77.6
Buffalo 1-4 2-7 76.4
Akron 0-6 0-10 65.2
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 5-0 7-2 98.6
Toledo 5-0 6-3 88.2
Western Michigan 2-3 3-6 83.7
Central Michigan 2-5 3-7 81.6
Ball State 2-4 3-7 73.9
Eastern Michigan 1-4 1-8 67.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 6-0 10-0 134.5
Utah 5-1 8-1 116.0
Air Force 3-3 6-4 106.8
B Y U 3-2 4-5 99.6
S. D. State 4-1 7-2 99.2
Colo. State 2-4 3-7 87.9
Wyoming 0-6 2-8 87.7
UNLV 1-4 1-8 81.5
New Mexico 1-4 1-8 74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 6-0 9-0 134.3
Stanford 5-1 8-1 127.5
Arizona 4-2 7-2 117.6
Oregon St. 3-2 4-4 115.5
Southern Cal 3-3 6-3 114.0
California 3-3 5-4 110.7
Arizona St. 2-4 4-5 107.9
U C L A 2-4 4-5 106.1
Washington 2-4 3-6 103.5
Washington State 0-7 1-9 90.6

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 4-3 6-3 119.0
South Carolina 4-3 6-3 116.8
Georgia 3-4 5-5 116.6
Kentucky 1-5 5-5 106.7
Tennessee 0-5 3-6 101.2
Vanderbilt 1-5 2-7 88.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Arkansas 4-2 7-2 125.8
Alabama 4-2 7-2 125.8
Auburn 6-0 10-0 125.1
L S U 5-1 8-1 117.7
Mississippi State 3-2 7-2 114.6
Ole Miss 1-4 4-5 102.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 4-1 5-3 87.4
Arkansas State 4-2 4-5 85.6
Florida International 3-1 3-5 83.1
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-5 82.4
Louisiana-Monroe 3-3 4-5 78.8
Florida Atlantic 2-3 3-5 78.7
U. of Louisiana 2-3 2-7 78.1
North Texas 2-4 2-7 78.0
Western Kentucky 1-4 1-8 73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 4-0 8-0 132.2
Nevada 3-1 8-1 111.3
Hawaii 5-1 7-3 104.9
Fresno State 4-1 6-2 97.9
Louisiana Tech 2-3 3-6 93.4
Utah State 1-4 3-6 89.4
Idaho 1-3 4-5 87.0
San Jose State 0-4 1-8 78.3
New Mexico State 1-4 2-7 74.1

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Toledo 13.4 34-21
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Miami (O) BOWLING GREEN 6.4 26-20
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT 4.3 24-20
East Carolina U A B 2.3 35-33
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
BUFFALO Ball State 5.5 23-17
Boise State IDAHO 42.2 52-10
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
AUBURN Georgia 11.5 42-30
ARKANSAS U t e p 44.9 62-17
Stanford ARIZONA STATE 16.1 40-24
Oregon CALIFORNIA 23.6 44-20
COLORADO Iowa State 4.8 35-30
FLORIDA STATE Clemson 10.2 34-24
FLORIDA South Carolina 5.2 26-21
Miami (Fl) GEORGIA TECH 0.3 27-27 to ot
Iowa NORTHWESTERN 22.2 42-20
KENTUCKY Vanderbilt 20.8 38-17
LOUISVILLE South Florida 3.3 24-21
MISSOURI Kansas State 17.8 35-17
Boston College DUKE 7.6 31-23
N. C. STATE Wake Forest 17.1 35-18
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA 0.4 20-20 to ot
NEBRASKA Kansas 34.5 45-10
Syracuse RUTGERS 4.3 24-20
OHIO STATE Penn State 22.7 33-10
OKLAHOMA Texas Tech 20.7 48-27
OREGON STATE Washington State 27.9 38-10
Texas A&M BAYLOR 6.5 34-27
Oklahoma State TEXAS 1.1 35-34
Maryland VIRGINIA 3.2 27-24
WISCONSIN Indiana 29.2 42-13
MARSHALL Memphis 19.4 35-16
WEST VIRGINIA Cincinnati 9.5 27-17
ALABAMA Mississippi State 14.2 28-14
ILLINOIS Minnesota 17.6 38-20
ARKANSAS STATE Western Kentucky 14.8 42-27
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Louisiana-Lafayette 4.1 27-23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE North Texas 7.4 34-27
Michigan PURDUE 12.1 38-26
TENNESSEE Ole Miss 1.6 28-26
TROY Florida Int’l 7.3 34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA Southern Miss 13.2 41-28
B y u COLORADO STATE 8.7 37-28
Army KENT STATE 0.2 20-20 to ot
WESTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan 18.5 40-21
Utah NOTRE DAME 8.5 40-31
NAVY Central Michigan 26.8 47-20
Rice TULANE 0.1 30-30 to ot
T C U San Diego State 38.8 49-10
Louisiana Tech NEW MEXICO STATE 16.3 28-12
AIR FORCE New Mexico 35.1 45-10
ARIZONA Southern Cal 6.6 31-24
Utah State SAN JOSE STATE 8.6 37-28
L S U Louisiana-Monroe 41.9 45-3
HOUSTON Tulsa 4.4 42-38
Nevada FRESNO STATE 10.4 41-31
Wyoming U N L V 3.7 28-24

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Toledo 31-21 30-22
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Miami (O) BOWLING GREEN 28-28 to ot 34-13
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT 24-16 23-17
East Carolina U A B 38-34 38-33
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
BUFFALO Ball State 26-21 27-12
Boise State IDAHO 41-12 56-14
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
AUBURN Georgia 37-27 41-27
ARKANSAS U t e p 49-20 52-17
Stanford ARIZONA STATE 38-28 38-14
Oregon CALIFORNIA 41-24 54-18
Iowa State COLORADO 31-28 30-20
FLORIDA STATE Clemson 28-20 22-20
FLORIDA South Carolina 23-17 24-17
Miami (Fl) GEORGIA TECH 31-27 24-28
Iowa NORTHWESTERN 31-17 27-16
KENTUCKY Vanderbilt 35-21 42-20
LOUISVILLE South Florida 27-23 27-24
MISSOURI Kansas State 33-24 35-24
Boston College DUKE 29-26 20-23
N. C. STATE Wake Forest 40-18 28-13
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA 27-24 28-24
NEBRASKA Kansas 39-7 45-17
Syracuse RUTGERS 28-26 26-27
OHIO STATE Penn State 26-10 24-14
OKLAHOMA Texas Tech 33-20 34-20
OREGON STATE Washington State 35-10 31-10
Texas A&M BAYLOR 34-32 35-31
Oklahoma State TEXAS 33-24 38-22
Maryland VIRGINIA 24-21 25-26
WISCONSIN Indiana 40-17 38-21
MARSHALL Memphis 37-21 37-19
WEST VIRGINIA Cincinnati 24-17 28-17
ALABAMA Mississippi State 23-10 20-10
ILLINOIS Minnesota 34-10 34-20
ARKANSAS STATE Western Kentucky 38-23 40-24
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Louisiana-Lafayette 25-17 21-18
MIDDLE TENNESSEE North Texas 35-30 33-27
Michigan PURDUE 34-25 38-23
TENNESSEE Ole Miss 28-26 31-26
TROY Florida Int’l 34-26 34-24
CENTRAL FLORIDA Southern Miss 35-23 35-26
B y u COLORADO STATE 34-28 41-22
Army KENT STATE 21-20 27-16
WESTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan 35-17 33-23
Utah NOTRE DAME 34-24 34-21
NAVY Central Michigan 44-24 44-20
TULANE Rice 30-25 31-21
T C U San Diego State 38-10 45-10
Louisiana Tech NEW MEXICO STATE 23-10 25-19
AIR FORCE New Mexico 35-3 34-13
ARIZONA Southern Cal 31-26 30-23
Utah State SAN JOSE STATE 34-30 38-28
L S U Louisiana-Monroe 40-7 37-9
HOUSTON Tulsa 38-38 to ot 45-41
Nevada FRESNO STATE 38-30 40-30
Wyoming U N L V 31-28 26-28

 

The Bowls

A lot of the bowls are going to be games with 7-5 and 6-6 mediocrity this year.  Unless it is your team playing, there will be no need to tune any of them in.  If the bowls were instead used to host playoff rounds, with 11 bowls being used for 12 teams, then the remaining bowls could then invite teams with eight and nine wins instead of six and seven.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen, but it is not what we think should happen.  If you ask us today, Boise State and TCU should meet for a third consecutive bowl season with the winner being declared National Champion.

 

Bowl Conference Prediction Conference Prediction
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) B Y U 6-6 WAC (#3?) [Ohio U 8-4]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Miami (O) 8-5 WAC #(1) or 2 Nevada 10-2
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Troy 7-5 C-USA #5 UTEP 6-6
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Connecticut 6-6 C-USA #4-6 Sou. Miss 7-5
Las Vegas MWC #1 Utah 11-1 Pac 10 #5 Oregon St. 6-6
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC Navy 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 Hawaii 10-3 C-USA #2-6 E C U 8-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC Northwestern 6-6 MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Georgia Tech 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 S. Florida 7-5 ACC #3 Florida St. 8-5
Insight Big 12 #4 Oklahoma 9-3 Big 10 #4 or 5 Mich. St. 10-2
Military ACC #8 Maryland 6-6 C-USA #6 S M U 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 8-4
Alamo Big 12 #3 Missouri 10-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 Tulsa 8-4 MWC #3-5/Army Army 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 7-5 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Miami (F) 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 U C L A 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 Clemson 7-5 Big East #3-4 West Va. 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 N.C. State 8-4 Pac 10 #4 California 6-6
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 6-6 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #2 N. Carolina 8-4
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #6-7 Michigan 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E Florida 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 Ohio St. 10-2 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Penn St. 8-4 SEC #6 S. Carolina 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Nebraska 11-2 BCS At-Large Pittsburgh 7-5
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large Arkansas 10-2
Sugar BCS SEC [T C U 12-0] BCS At-Large Boise St. 12-0
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Florida Int’l 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Oklahoma St. 11-2 SEC #3-6 W Alabama 9-3
Birmingham Big East #5 Louisville 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Temple 9-3] WAC #1 Fresno St. 7-5
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Auburn 13-0 *** BCS #2 *** Oregon 12-0

 

November 1, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 2-6, 2010

Ho-Hum Another Winning Weekend

 

Before we get too big of a swelled head and believe we can pick winners in our sleep, let us say that we were not pleased with this past weekend’s picks.  Yes, we had another winning week against the spread, but we have gotten to the point where 4-3 is not acceptable in this season of what looks like easy riches.  We went with underdogs in five picks and took the totals in two others.

 

Ralph Waldo Emerson said, “Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect.”  Lucky for us, we hope we can be called strong men, because we were prepared to go with 11 picks this week instead of seven.  Those four picks we did not make all lost.  For the season, our record against the spread is 47-22-2, dropping us to 68.1% against the spread.  Here is how it went:

 

1. St. Louis Rams +3 vs. Carolina Panthers

WON

 

We did not feel that one win over a week San Francisco team was the telltale sign that Carolina was on the verge of a major turnaround.  We liked Sam Bradford’s consistent improvement with experience, and we told you we believed the Rams would win outright.

 

2. Miami Dolphins +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

WON

 

As we stated in Thursday’s Email to our subscribers, we could not believe the Dolphins were not at least five-point favorites in this game.  If the odds makers continue to treat the Bengals like it was the first half of the 2009 season, then we won’t complain.

 

3. Buffalo Bills +7 ½ vs. Kansas City Chiefs

WON

 

Buffalo had a near miss against Baltimore, and we applauded their offensive changes.  We thought that with anything close to a repeat performance could give the Bills an upset win.  We loved the extra hook in the spread, and it became a solid pick.  When the game went to overtime, we were safe.

 

4. Tennessee Titans +4 vs. San Diego Chargers

Lost

 

We were hurt by two injuries in this game, one of them critical.  Kenny Britt went down early in the first quarter and was lost for the game.  Vince Young was off to a great start, and he ran out of weapons as the game wore on.  Then, he went down in the 4th quarter.  With Kerry Collins in the game, the Chargers could bottle up Chris Johnson, and with no Britt, Collins had little left to pass deep.

 

5. Seattle Seahawks +2 ½ vs. Oakland Raiders

Lost

 

Break up the Raiders!  How did they get Daryle Lamonica, Ben Davidson, Fred Biletnikoff, Art Shell, and the rest of the 1967 team through the fountain of youth?  Who would have thought that the Chiefs and Raiders would be fighting it out once again for the West Division title?  We goofed big time on this one.

 

6. Green Bay Packers & New York Jets OVER 42

Lost

 

Talk about blowing one big time, this game produced no touchdowns.  We thought that with a week off, the Jets would have their offense running smoothly.  We also thought that the Packers’ defense would be a little off after playing the Vikings on Monday Night Football.  It looked like the Lombardi Packers out there Sunday.

 

7. New Orleans Saints & Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 44 ½

WON

 

We were saved by the Sunday night game.  We felt that the Steelers would not allow the Saints to score 24 points in this game.  This was the best defense New Orleans has faced, and they have been having difficulty scoring.  We figured Pittsburgh would not score 20, and we were correct.

 

An Interesting Week of College Football

 

This will be an exciting week in the college football world.  There are games every night beginning Tuesday, and there will be reason to tune them in.

 

Tuesday night, Middle Tennessee travels to Arkansas State.  While we will not pick this game against the spread, because we pick our games late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning to get them to our subscribers by Thursday afternoon.  This game has added importance now that UL-Monroe knocked off Troy.  Middle Tennessee has one conference loss, while Arkansas State has two.  The loser will be out of the conference race, while the winner will have a chance should Troy fall again.  Additionally, the winner will be in good shape in the bowl picture, while the loser will be on thin ice.

 

Wednesday night, Rutgers visits South Florida.  The winner will emerge with a 5-3 record and an almost certain chance to become bowl eligible.  With Notre Dame falling out of the bowl picture for now, it looks like the Big East will need six bowl eligible teams.

 

Thursday night, Georgia Tech visits Virginia Tech, and the Hokies look like the class of the ACC.  If VT continues to win out and advances to the Orange Bowl, it will help Boise State stay in contention for the National Championship Game.  They would almost assuredly need an Oregon State victory over Oregon as well.

 

Friday night Central Florida plays at Houston in what could be a preview of the Conference USA Championship Game. 

 

On Saturday, there are several great games with important repercussions.  Arizona plays at Stanford.  The winner stays in contention for a possible BCS at-large bowl bid.  Stanford’s road to 11-1 is considerably easier than Arizona’s.

 

Illinois plays at Michigan.  Should the Illini win, expect the heat to come back under the seat of Coach Rich Rodriguez.  Ron Zook’s seat has cooled with Illinois on its way to a bowl game this year.

 

Virginia’s game at Duke did not look important a week ago, but after the Cavaliers knocked off Miami, this game became important.  Duke is coming off a big win against Navy, and they believe they can beat UVA.  Virginia is now in the bowl picture, and this becomes a must-win game.

 

Louisville ventures to Syracuse, where the Orange have become a conference champion contender.  The Cardinals are on the precipice of being good, and it is not impossible to see them pulling off a mild upset.  UL needs an upset to have a shot at a bowl.

 

Baylor plays at Oklahoma State in a game that now has direct bearing on the Big 12 South title.  Both teams have one conference loss, and both must still face Oklahoma.  The winner will have eight victories and move into Cotton Bowl contention as well.

 

North Carolina State plays at Clemson.  Coming off the upset of Florida State, the Wolfpack could be primed for a bounce, and Clemson needs an upset win.  After losing to Boston College, the Tigers are on the outside looking in for a bowl.  A loss here could send them to a 5-7 finish.

 

Oklahoma plays at Texas A&M, and if Ryan Tannehill has another day like he did against Texas Tech, the Aggies will have a chance to be there in the fourth quarter.  An upset would throw the South race wide open.  Oklahoma still has an outside shot at moving back to number two in the BCS, but we do not see it happening.  In fact, we believe they have a better chance of losing a second game this season.

 

Colorado must win at Kansas, or Dan Hawkins’ fate will be sealed.  The Buffalos are 3-5 and they have two other winnable games on the schedule.  We see them winning their fourth this weekend, but we aren’t so sure about those other two.  Hawkins may be finished in Boulder win or lose this week.

 

Texas faces Kansas State in the Little Apple, and this game is now a tossup.  The Longhorns could be in danger of falling all the way to 6-6 if they lose this game.  Kansas State needs one win to become bowl eligible, and they have North Texas at the end of the schedule to virtually guarantee that sixth win.  However, winning this game could move them up a couple notches in bowl priority.

 

Maryland plays at Miami, and the Hurricanes should be without quarterback Jacory Harris.  If Coach Randy Shannon chooses to play Harris after the QB suffered a concussion, then he should be put on the hot seat.  As for the Terps, they are now in strong contention in the ACC Atlantic Division.  With just one conference loss, they host Florida State and North Carolina State to conclude the regular season.

 

Arkansas visits South Carolina, where the winner stays in contention for the Capital One Bowl, Outback Bowl, and Cotton Bowl.  South Carolina could still win the automatic BCS Bowl bid, but we see that as a remote chance.

 

Air Force plays at Army, and the Black Knights have a chance to become bowl eligible.  This should be a great game.

 

Alabama ventures to Baton Rouge to take on LSU.  The winner stays in contention for the SEC West title and National Championship Game, while the loser can probably start making plans for the Cotton Bowl.

 

Hawaii is on a roll.  The Warriors have won six games in a row by an average score of 46-16.  Included in that streak are victories over Fresno State and Nevada.  Can the Warriors, who ranked 26th in the AP poll give Boise State a close game at the field of blue?  A Bronco win in this game coupled with Auburn facing Chattanooga could allow BSU to jump over Auburn.

 

The Big Game of the Week

 

#3 T C U has a chance to jump into the Championship Game picture with a win at #5 Utah in what has to be considered the game of the week.  The two undefeated teams will battle it out in Salt Lake City, and the Utes have major revenge on their minds after last season’s humiliating loss in Ft. Worth.  The game will be televised on the CBS College Sports Network, and that network is offering a free preview this week.  If you have Dish Network, Charter Communications Cable, or Time Warner Cable, you should be able to receive this game.  Check with your local cable company if not.

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings For The Week

 

NCAA Top 25 November 1, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 134.0 8 0
2 T C U 129.5 8 0
3 Boise State 129.4 7 0
4 Alabama 128.6 7 1
5 Oklahoma 126.2 7 1
6 Ohio State 125.8 8 1
7 Stanford 124.9 7 1
8 Auburn 124.5 9 0
9 Iowa 123.6 6 2
10 Nebraska 122.8 7 1
11 Arkansas 122.8 6 2
12 Virginia Tech 121.6 6 2
13 Florida State 120.9 6 2
14 South Carolina 119.8 6 2
15 Utah 119.5 8 0
16 Wisconsin 119.3 7 1
17 Arizona 119.2 7 1
18 Missouri 118.9 7 1
19 Oregon State 117.2 4 3
20 Miami (Fla) 117.1 5 3
21 Florida 116.2 5 3
22 North Carolina 116.0 5 3
23 Georgia 115.6 4 5
24 Southern Cal 114.9 5 3
25 Mississippi State 114.6 7 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-1 6-2 120.9
Clemson 2-3 4-4 112.5
North Carolina State 3-1 6-2 107.3
Boston College 1-4 3-5 104.5
Maryland 3-1 6-2 99.9
Wake Forest 1-4 2-6 93.8
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 4-0 6-2 121.6
Miami-FL 3-2 5-3 117.1
North Carolina 2-2 5-3 116.0
Georgia Tech 3-2 5-3 111.9
Virginia 1-3 4-4 96.9
Duke 0-4 2-6 93.1

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Pittsburgh 3-0 5-3 111.5
West Virginia 1-2 5-3 111.5
Cincinnati 1-2 3-5 105.0
South Florida 1-2 4-3 104.5
Connecticut 1-2 4-4 104.2
Syracuse 3-1 6-2 103.5
Louisville 1-2 4-4 101.7
Rutgers 1-1 4-3 93.1

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 4-1 8-1 125.8
Iowa 3-1 6-2 123.6
Wisconsin 3-1 7-1 119.3
Michigan State 4-1 8-1 111.9
Michigan 1-3 5-3 106.2
Illinois 3-2 5-3 106.6
Penn State 2-2 5-3 105.6
Northwestern 2-2 6-2 96.4
Purdue 2-2 4-4 90.9
Minnesota 0-5 1-8 91.1
Indiana 0-4 4-4 89.7

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 3-1 7-1 122.8
Missouri 3-1 7-1 118.9
Colorado 0-4 3-5 100.8
Kansas State 2-3 5-3 97.8
Iowa State 3-2 5-4 94.0
Kansas 0-4 2-6 86.8
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 3-1 7-1 126.2
Texas A&M 2-2 5-3 114.3
Texas 2-3 4-4 112.5
Baylor 4-1 7-2 110.3
Oklahoma State 3-1 7-1 109.3
Texas Tech 2-4 4-4 103.0

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 4-0 6-2 103.0
East Carolina 4-1 5-3 95.8
Southern Mississippi 2-2 5-3 94.4
U A B 2-2 3-5 90.2
Marshall 1-3 2-6 82.0
Memphis 0-5 1-7 69.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-1 5-3 101.1
Tulsa 2-2 5-3 95.2
S M U 4-1 5-4 94.0
Rice 1-3 2-6 83.6
U T E P 2-4 5-4 82.0
Tulane 1-3 3-5 77.8

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   4-5 103.5
Navy   5-3 101.6
Army   5-3 89.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 4-1 7-2 95.2
Ohio U 4-1 6-3 89.9
Miami (O) 4-1 5-4 86.5
Kent St. 3-2 4-4 86.3
Bowling Green 1-4 2-7 77.6
Buffalo 1-3 2-6 76.9
Akron 0-5 0-9 64.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 5-0 7-2 98.6
Toledo 5-0 6-3 88.2
Western Michigan 2-2 3-5 84.2
Central Michigan 1-5 2-7 81.1
Ball State 1-4 2-7 75.2
Eastern Michigan 1-4 1-8 67.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 5-0 9-0 129.5
Utah 5-0 8-0 119.5
Air Force 3-3 5-4 105.8
S. D. State 3-1 6-2 100.0
B Y U 2-2 3-5 97.3
Wyoming 0-5 2-7 91.2
Colo. State 2-3 3-6 87.1
UNLV 1-3 1-7 85.0
New Mexico 0-4 0-8 72.9

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 5-0 8-0 134.0
Stanford 4-1 7-1 124.9
Arizona 4-1 7-1 119.2
Oregon St. 3-1 4-3 117.2
Southern Cal 2-3 5-3 114.9
California 2-3 4-4 112.9
Arizona St. 2-3 4-4 107.0
U C L A 1-4 3-5 104.5
Washington 2-3 3-5 103.8
Washington State 0-6 1-8 89.6

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 4-2 6-2 119.8
Florida 3-3 5-3 116.2
Georgia 3-4 4-5 115.6
Kentucky 1-5 4-5 108.2
Tennessee 0-5 2-6 99.4
Vanderbilt 1-4 2-6 92.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.6
Auburn 6-0 9-0 124.5
Arkansas 3-2 6-2 122.8
Mississippi State 3-2 7-2 114.6
L S U 4-1 7-1 113.9
Ole Miss 1-4 3-5 104.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 3-1 4-3 87.6
Middle Tennessee 2-1 3-4 85.9
Florida International 2-1 2-5 84.1
Arkansas State 3-2 3-5 82.1
Florida Atlantic 1-3 2-5 78.9
Louisiana-Monroe 3-2 4-4 77.8
North Texas 2-3 2-6 77.8
U. of Louisiana 2-3 2-6 76.6
Western Kentucky 1-3 1-7 73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 3-0 7-0 129.4
Nevada 2-1 7-1 107.5
Hawaii 5-0 7-2 106.7
Fresno State 3-1 5-2 96.7
Louisiana Tech 2-2 3-5 94.9
Utah State 0-4 2-6 90.7
Idaho 1-2 4-4 89.8
San Jose State 0-4 1-8 78.3
New Mexico State 1-3 2-6 72.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Middle Tennessee ARKANSAS STATE 0.8 29-28
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
SOUTH FLORIDA Rutgers 14.9 35-20
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
OHIO U Buffalo 16.0 33-17
VIRGINIA TECH Georgia Tech 13.2 34-21
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Western Michigan CENTRAL MICHIGAN 0.6 25-24
HOUSTON Central Florida 1.6 35-33
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
STANFORD Arizona 9.2 33-24
Oregon State U C L A 9.7 31-21
FLORIDA STATE North Carolina 7.9 31-23
Nebraska IOWA STATE 25.8 38-12
Iowa INDIANA 30.9 44-13
Florida Atlantic WESTERN KENTUCKY 3.3 27-24
MICHIGAN STATE Minnesota 23.8 41-17
MICHIGAN Illinois 2.6 34-31
OLE MISS Louisiana Lafayette 30.5 48-17
Virginia DUKE 0.8 27-26
Boston College WAKE FOREST 7.7 28-20
SYRACUSE Louisville 4.8 21-16
OKLAHOMA STATE Baylor 2.0 33-31
TULSA Rice 14.6 38-23
PENN STATE Northwestern 12.7 33-20
CLEMSON North Carolina State 8.2 32-24
Florida VANDERBILT 21.0 28-7
Oklahoma TEXAS A&M 8.9 33-24
Troy NORTH TEXAS 6.8 31-24
California WASHINGTON STATE 20.8 35-14
FLORIDA INT’L UL-Monroe 9.3 30-21
Colorado KANSAS 11.0 28-17
Texas KANSAS STATE 11.7 26-14
MIAMI (FL) Maryland 20.2 34-14
OREGON Washington 33.7 51-17
Wisconsin PURDUE 25.4 41-16
SOUTH CAROLINA Arkansas 0.5 25-24
Missouri TEXAS TECH 12.9 41-28
Air Force ARMY 13.1 23-10
BALL STATE Akron 13.3 25-12
BOISE STATE Hawaii 26.2 50-24
B Y U U n l v 15.3 24-9
Temple KENT STATE 6.4 20-14
UTAH STATE New Mexico State 20.9 42-21
Navy EAST CAROLINA 2.8 34-31
T c u UTAH 6.5 27-21
Southern Miss TULANE 13.6 34-20
LOUISIANA TECH Fresno State 1.7 27-25
U A B Marshall 11.2 35-24
Nevada IDAHO 14.7 42-27
Wyoming NEW MEXICO 15.8 26-10
Alabama L S U 11.7 26-14
Tennessee MEMPHIS 27.0 40-13
S m u U T E P 9.0 35-26
SAN DIEGO STATE Colorado State 15.9 35-19
SOUTHERN CAL Arizona State 10.9 35-24

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
ARKANSAS STATE Middle Tennessee 29-24 31-24
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
SOUTH FLORIDA Rutgers 30-24 34-24
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
OHIO U Buffalo 30-14 33-17
VIRGINIA TECH Georgia Tech 35-20 35-20
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Western Michigan CENTRAL MICHIGAN 26-24 28-14
Central Florida HOUSTON 34-31 30-34
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
STANFORD Arizona 30-24 28-23
Oregon State U C L A 31-23 34-20
FLORIDA STATE North Carolina 28-19 30-17
Nebraska IOWA STATE 37-21 41-16
Iowa INDIANA 40-17 38-21
Florida Atlantic WESTERN KENTUCKY 26-24 28-17
MICHIGAN STATE Minnesota 44-20 45-20
Illinois MICHIGAN 36-34 35-38
OLE MISS Louisiana Lafayette 41-18 44-19
Virginia DUKE 24-21 27-18
Boston College WAKE FOREST 35-31 34-17
SYRACUSE Louisville 26-21 27-16
OKLAHOMA STATE Baylor 35-27 31-27
TULSA Rice 48-29 45-28
PENN STATE Northwestern 31-22 28-17
North Carolina State CLEMSON 31-30 30-31
Florida VANDERBILT 23-7 27-7
Oklahoma TEXAS A&M 34-27 34-21
Troy NORTH TEXAS 40-31 41-27
California WASHINGTON STATE 34-17 35-17
FLORIDA INT’L UL-Monroe 24-19 16-26
Colorado KANSAS 27-18 26-14
KANSAS STATE Texas 24-21 20-24
MIAMI (FL) Maryland 35-24 28-23
OREGON Washington 52-24 56-17
Wisconsin PURDUE 35-18 38-17
SOUTH CAROLINA Arkansas 28-26 27-26
Missouri TEXAS TECH 45-34 45-31
Air Force ARMY 20-13 21-17
BALL STATE Akron 27-14 20-16
BOISE STATE Hawaii 49-31 48-31
B Y U U n l v 30-14 31-10
Temple KENT STATE 23-16 27-13
UTAH STATE New Mexico State 37-21 33-24
EAST CAROLINA Navy 37-35 37-31
T c u UTAH 21-19 17-13
Southern Miss TULANE 35-27 34-20
Fresno State LOUISIANA TECH 27-26 23-31
U A B Marshall 35-26 35-26
Nevada IDAHO 40-28 41-28
Wyoming NEW MEXICO 31-16 27-20
Alabama L S U 24-20 24-14
Tennessee MEMPHIS 31-14 34-18
S m u U T E P 36-28 38-28
SAN DIEGO STATE Colorado State 35-19 34-20
SOUTHERN CAL Arizona State 38-28 38-28

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conference vs. Conference Prediction Prediction
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) vs. WAC (#3?) (La. Monroe 7-5) Louisiana Tech 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 vs. WAC #(1) or 2 Temple 9-3 Nevada 9-3
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 vs. C-USA #5 Troy 8-4 Tulsa 8-4
St. Petersburg Big East #6 vs. C-USA #4-6 Connecticut 6-6 East Carolina 8-4
Las Vegas MWC #1 vs. Pac 10 #5 Utah 11-1 (Ohio U 8-4)
Poinsettia MWC #2 vs. Navy or WAC San Diego St. 8-4 Navy 7-5
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 vs. C-USA #2-6 Hawaii 10-3 S M U 7-5
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC vs. MAC #1-2 Northwestern 6-6 Northern Ill. 11-2
Independence ACC #7 vs. MWC #3 Clemson 6-6 B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports Big East #2 vs. ACC #3 South Fla. 7-5 Fla. State 9-4
Insight Big 12 #4 vs. Big 10 #4 or 5 Okla. State 10-2 Penn State 8-4
Military ACC #8 vs. C-USA #6 Maryland 6-6 Southern Miss 7-5
Texas Big 12 #6-7 vs. Big 10 #6-7 Texas A&M 6-6 Illinois 8-4
Alamo Big 12 #3 vs. Pac 10 #2 Missouri 11-1 Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 vs. MWC #3-5/Army Houston 8-5 Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 vs. Big 12 #6-7 Pittsburgh 7-5 Texas 6-6
Music City SEC # 7 vs. ACC #6 Tennessee 6-6 North Carolina 6-6
Holiday Big 12 #5 vs. Pac 10 #3 Baylor 8-4 Oregon State 7-5
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 vs. Big East #3-4 Georgia Tech 7-5 West Va. 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 vs. Pac 10 #4 Miami (F) 7-5 California 6-6
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 vs. C-USA #1 Kentucky 6-6 Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 vs. ACC #2 Miss. State 8-4 North Car. St. 9-3
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #6-7 vs. Big 12 #8/CUSA Michigan 7-5 Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E vs. Big 10 #3 Florida 9-4 Ohio State 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 vs. SEC #2 Iowa 10-2 Arkansas 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 vs. SEC #6 Michigan St. 10-2 South Carolina 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 vs. BCS Big 10 Stanford 11-1 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 vs. BCS At-Large Oklahoma 12-1 Syracuse 10-2
Orange BCS ACC vs. BCS At-Large Va. Tech 11-2 T C U 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC vs. BCS At-Large Auburn 11-1 Boise St. 12-0
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 vs. MAC #1 or 2 Middle Tenn. 7-5 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3-6 W Nebraska 11-2 L S U 9-3
Birmingham Big East #5 vs. SEC #8 or 9 Louisville 6-6 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 vs. WAC #1 (Miami (O) 8-5) Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** vs. *** BCS #2 *** Oregon 12-0 Alabama 12-1
           
Teams in (Parentheses) are at-large bids

October 25, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 26-30, 2010

PiRate Picks Continue The Winning Streak

 Eight for eight!  Yes, we have now had a winning weekend for all eight weeks of the season.  Our most recent showing produced a 6-3 record against the spread.

 Unlike previous weeks where the NFL games did it for us, it was our college sweetheart teaser plays that made it another profitable weekend.  We know from e-mails that many of you like only the college games.  You have told us that you are only breaking even playing our college games.  Well, you got a 4-0 weekend by playing our four college picks.

Our record for the year is now 43-19-2 for 69.4%.  We don’t officially break our picks down by college and pro picks, because there could be weeks where we combine college and pro games in a teaser or moneyline parlay.  While some of you follow us strictly for our college selections, we issue our weekly selections to be played in total.  We also advise against playing an even amount of games, because finishing with a .500 mark against the spread is a losing proposition.

Here are how our picks finished.

1. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Navy +16 ½ vs. Notre Dame; Maryland +15 vs. Boston College; Minnesota +18 vs. Penn State

WON

2. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Northwestern +14 ½ vs. Michigan State; Syracuse +23 vs. West Virginia; Iowa State +31 vs. Texas

WON

3. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Arkansas Pk vs. Ole Miss; Hawaii +7 vs. Utah State; California +7 vs. Arizona State

WON

. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Alabama -7 vs. Tennessee; South Carolina -1 ½ vs. Vanderbilt; Georgia +5 vs. Kentucky

WON

5. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins

Lost

6. Atlanta Falcons -3 ½ vs. Cincinnati Bengals

WON

7. Chicago Bears -3 vs. Washington Redskins

Lost

8. San Diego Chargers -2 ½ vs. New England

Lost

9. Oakland +7 ½ vs. Denver

WON

A Look At The BCS Conferences

A C C

Atlantic Division

Florida State plays at North Carolina State Thursday night, and the winner will be in control in the division.  We think that the Wolfpack could pull off the minor upset, but NCSU has three tough road games to play.  They will not go 3-0 playing at Clemson, North Carolina, and Maryland.  So, we are sticking with our guns here and going with the Seminoles to win the division at 7-1 in the league.

Maryland has just one loss in conference play, and they finish the season by hosting Florida State and North Carolina State.  The Terrapins must still play at Miami, so it will be close to impossible to win the division outright.  There is a chance they could figure in a tie at 6-2, but we believe they will fall to 5-3 or 4-4.

Clemson is out of the picture in the division race, but we believe the Tigers will get to eight wins and garner a decent bowl.

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech looks pretty after beginning 0-2.  The Hokies have run roughshod over six consecutive opponents.  They get two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech, and then the only tough game left to play is the November 20 contest at Miami.  We give VT a great chance of running the table.

Miami should finish second in the division, while North Carolina and Georgia Tech go 4-4.  Virginia is lurking in the shadows.  The Cavaliers were not supposed to contend this season, yet they are 3-4 overall.  UVA has games with Duke, Maryland, and Boston College, so there is an outside chance they could finish 6-6.  We think they will come up a bit short.

1. BCS Bowl (Orange): Virginia Tech

2. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida State

3. Champs Sports Bowl: Miami

4. Sun Bowl: Clemson

5. Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina State

6. Music City Bowl: North Carolina

7. Independence Bowl: Maryland

8. Eagle Bank Bowl: Georgia Tech

 Big East

This conference’s automatic BCS Bowl invitation should be revoked this year and given to the Mountain West Conference.  Nobody in this league even deserves the Champs Sports Bowl Bid!

The race is still up for grabs between everybody but Connecticut.  We do not see any team going 6-1.  5-2 should be enough to win the league.  Pittsburgh and Syracuse seem to have the best chances of getting to 5-2, but we think Cincinnati has a good chance of catching fire and winning four of five to get to 5-2 as well.  The Bearcats have home games with Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt, and road games against West Virginia and Connecticut.

 West Virginia has the talent to win the league, but they play too inconsistently.  We think the Mountaineers could be headed to a 4-3 league mark.  South Florida should join them at that level, and we believe Louisville could surprise a couple of teams and get there as well.  It all adds up to horrendous mediocrity.  If Pitt, Syracuse, and Cincinnati end at 5-2, then the Bearcats will sneak into a BCS Bowl at 7-5 overall.

 1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Cincinnati

2. Champs Sports Bowl: Syracuse

3. Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia

4. Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame

5. PapaJohns Bowl: South Florida

6. St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh

At-Large: Las Vegas Bowl: Louisville fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Big Ten

You will notice that our ratings fail to rank 8-0 Michigan State in the PiRate Top 25.  The Spartans have sort of fallen through the cracks in the way our computer system rates teams.  A win at Iowa is almost assured to move MSU up several spots, but we are unenthusiastic about calling for that win.  Thus, we do not believe a Big Ten team will play for the national championship. 

We feel the Spartans will finish 7-1 in league play, finishing in a three-way tie with Iowa and Wisconsin.  The tiebreaking procedure would give Michigan State the Rose Bowl bid.  We believe that an 11-1 Wisconsin team would receive one of the at-large BCS Bowl Bids over a 12-0 TCU/Utah team (assuming Boise State finishes 12-0 as well).

Ohio State must still visit Iowa, so we believe the Buckeyes could lose another game.  Should Ohio State beat Iowa and finish 7-1 along with Wisconsin and Michigan State, then the one with the highest BCS rating will get the bid.  It is too early to predict that.

1. BCS Bowl (Rose): Michigan State

1a. At-Large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Wisconsin

2. Capitol One Bowl: Ohio State

3. Outback Bowl: Iowa

4. Gator Bowl: Michigan

5. Insight Bowl: Illinois

6. Texas Bowl: Northwestern

7. Dallas Football Classic: Penn State

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: No available team

Big 12

Missouri must face Nebraska in Lincoln this week.  Coming off the major upset over the number one BCS team tends to make one believe that the Tigers will bounce and fall to the Cornhuskers.  There is one thing in their favor; the officiating should be as biased against Nebraska as it was in the game with Texas.  Any close call will go in Mizzou’s favor.

 We still believe that Bo’s boys will prevail and eliminate the last undefeated Big 12 team.  That would give Nebraska the division title in a tie.

 As for the South, Oklahoma should still win and finish 7-1, but don’t count out Oklahoma State just yet.  The Cowboys have a shot.

 A hearty congratulation goes out to Art Briles at Baylor.  The Bears are now bowl eligible at 6-2, and they actually remain in contention for the South Division flag.  They would have to win at Texas, at Oklahoma State, and beat Texas A&M at home before they would get Oklahoma at home to conclude the regular season.

 There are going to be several teams contending for their important sixth win and bowl eligibility.  We tend to believe Colorado has played themselves out of the mix, and thus Dan Hawkins’ days in Boulder are numbered.  Iowa State should handle Kansas, but then the Cyclones face Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri to close out the regular season.  They need two wins, and they could beat Colorado, but this figures to be Hawkins’ last home game.

1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

2. Cotton Bowl: Missouri

3. Alamo Bowl: Nebraska

4. Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State

5. Holiday Bowl: Texas

6. Texas Bowl: Baylor

7. Pinstripe Bowl: Texas A&M

8. Dallas Football Classic: Texas Tech

At-large Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Kansas State fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Pac-10

If Oregon knocks off Southern Cal this weekend, then we believe the Ducks will run the table and secure a spot in the National Championship Game.  If USC wins, then the Ducks will quack in the Rose Bowl instead.  We are going to say Oregon goes 12-0 (we may possibly play against them in the official picks against the spread, so don’t take this as a statement that we are picking Oregon this week).

There is a lot of mediocrity in the second half of the standings, and the Trojans are not bowl-eligible this year due to probation.  Throw in the possibility that Stanford could earn an at-large BCS bowl bid, and there is not much chance the league will be able to fill its bowl allotments.  We believe they could fall two spots short.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Oregon

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Stanford

2. Alamo Bowl: Arizona

3. Holiday Bowl: California

4. Sun Bowl: Oregon State

5. Las Vegas Bowl: No Team Available

6. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: No Team Available

S E C

Auburn rests at the top of the BCS standings after beating LSU, but we don’t believe the Tigers will be there on November 28.  We think they will lose to Alabama in the season finale but qualify as an at-large BCS Bowl member.

Alabama could sneak back into the number two spot by winning out, omitting a 12-0 Boise State team that has a virtual road win over another BCS Bowl team.  The Broncos could still win the AP National Championship by winning big in their bowl.

LSU and Arkansas should both finish with better records than any East Division team.  Mississippi State could as well, meaning the top five teams come from the West Division.

The East race is up for grabs.  Georgia began the season 0-3 in league play, but we feel like the Bulldogs will finish 4-4 and grab a piece of the flag.  Florida and South Carolina look to be heading to a 4-4 finish, assuming the Gators beat the Gamecocks, and the Gamecocks lose to Arkansas.  If Kentucky can upset Mississippi State in Starkville, then the Wildcats will have an excellent chance at going 4-4 in league play as well.  Vanderbilt should be an easy win, and Tennessee would be very winnable for the Wildcats.  UK has lost 25 in a row to the Vols, and this looks like the year it should end.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Alabama

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Rose): Auburn

2. Capitol One Bowl: Arkansas

3. Cotton Bowl: L S U

4. Outback Bowl: Florida

5. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia

6. Gator Bowl: Mississippi State

7. Music City Bowl: Kentucky

8. Liberty Bowl: South Carolina

9. PapaJohns Bowl: No Team Available

The PiRate Ratings Top 25 For October 25, 2010

 

Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 132.8 7 0
2 Boise State 129.8 6 0
3 Alabama 128.6 7 1
4 T C U 128.4 7 0
5 Oklahoma 125.4 6 1
6 Auburn 123.5 8 0
7 Ohio State 123.5 7 1
8 Florida State 123.0 6 1
9 Arkansas 121.7 5 2
10 Virginia Tech 121.6 6 2
11 Stanford 121.4 6 1
12 Iowa 121.1 5 2
13 Missouri 120.9 7 0
14 South Carolina 120.8 5 2
15 Nebraska 120.8 6 1
16 Utah 120.2 7 0
17 Miami (Fla) 119.8 5 2
18 Wisconsin 119.3 7 1
19 Arizona 118.9 6 1
20 North Carolina 116.7 4 3
21 Southern Cal 116.1 5 2
22 California 115.7 4 3
23 Georgia 115.6 4 4
24 Clemson 115.0 4 3
25 Mississippi State 114.9 6 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

  

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-0 6-1 123.0
Clemson 2-2 4-3 115.0
North Carolina State 2-1 5-2 105.2
Boston College 0-4 2-5 102.1
Wake Forest 1-3 2-5 98.8
Maryland 2-1 5-2 96.9
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 4-0 6-2 121.6
Miami-FL 3-1 5-2 119.8
North Carolina 2-2 4-3 116.7
Georgia Tech 3-2 5-3 111.9
Virginia 0-3 3-4 93.2
Duke 0-4 1-6 90.3

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 1-1 5-2 111.7
Pittsburgh 2-0 4-3 111.0
Cincinnati 1-1 3-4 108.2
South Florida 1-2 4-3 104.5
Connecticut 0-2 3-4 104.0
Louisville 1-1 4-3 102.2
Syracuse 2-1 5-2 100.8
Rutgers 1-1 4-3 93.1

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 3-1 7-1 123.5
Iowa 2-1 5-2 121.1
Wisconsin 3-1 7-1 119.3
Michigan State 4-0 8-0 114.7
Michigan 1-2 5-2 107.6
Illinois 2-2 4-3 104.5
Penn State 1-2 4-3 104.2
Northwestern 1-2 5-2 96.3
Purdue 2-1 4-3 93.4
Minnesota 0-4 1-7 93.1
Indiana 0-3 4-3 89.8

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Missouri 3-0 7-0 120.9
Nebraska 2-1 6-1 120.8
Colorado 0-3 3-4 101.7
Kansas State 2-2 5-2 98.3
Iowa State 2-2 4-4 93.4
Kansas 0-3 2-5 87.4
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 2-1 6-1 125.4
Texas 2-2 4-3 114.8
Texas A&M 1-2 4-3 112.8
Oklahoma State 2-1 6-1 108.8
Baylor 3-1 6-2 107.0
Texas Tech 2-3 4-3 104.5

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 3-0 5-2 101.5
East Carolina 4-0 5-2 96.8
Southern Mississippi 2-1 5-2 95.4
U A B 1-2 2-5 89.2
Marshall 0-3 1-6 81.6
Memphis 0-4 1-6 71.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 3-1 4-3 99.4
S M U 3-1 4-4 93.8
Tulsa 2-2 4-3 93.7
Rice 1-3 2-6 83.6
U T E P 2-3 5-3 82.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 78.0

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   4-4 105.8
Navy   5-2 104.9
Army   4-3 90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 3-1 6-2 93.7
Ohio U 4-1 5-3 91.4
Miami (O) 3-1 4-4 85.8
Kent St. 2-2 3-4 85.3
Buffalo 1-2 2-5 77.6
Bowling Green 0-4 1-7 76.3
Akron 0-4 0-8 64.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 4-0 6-2 98.9
Toledo 4-0 5-3 86.2
Central Michigan 1-4 2-6 84.4
Western Michigan 2-1 3-4 83.0
Ball State 1-3 2-6 76.2
Eastern Michigan 1-3 1-7 69.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 4-0 8-0 128.4
Utah 4-0 7-0 120.2
Air Force 3-2 5-3 105.1
S. D. State 2-1 5-2 99.6
B Y U 2-2 3-5 97.3
Wyoming 0-4 2-6 91.6
Colo. State 1-3 2-6 85.5
UNLV 1-2 1-6 85.4
New Mexico 0-3 0-7 74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 4-0 7-0 132.8
Stanford 3-1 6-1 121.4
Arizona 3-1 6-1 118.9
Southern Cal 2-2 5-2 116.1
California 2-2 4-3 115.7
Oregon St. 2-1 3-3 113.4
Washington 2-2 3-4 106.8
U C L A 1-3 3-4 104.8
Arizona St. 1-3 3-4 104.3
Washington State 0-5 1-7 92.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 3-2 5-2 120.8
Georgia 3-3 4-4 115.6
Florida 2-3 4-3 114.7
Kentucky 1-4 4-4 107.9
Tennessee 0-4 2-5 98.1
Vanderbilt 1-3 2-5 93.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.6
Auburn 5-0 8-0 123.5
Arkansas 2-2 5-2 121.7
Mississippi State 2-2 6-2 114.9
L S U 4-1 7-1 113.9
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 105.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 3-0 4-2 91.2
Middle Tennessee 2-1 3-4 85.9
Florida International 2-0 2-4 85.6
Arkansas State 3-2 3-5 82.1
Florida Atlantic 0-3 1-5 77.4
Western Kentucky 1-2 1-6 76.6
North Texas 1-3 1-6 75.8
U. of Louisiana 2-3 2-5 75.6
Louisiana-Monroe 2-2 3-4 74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 2-0 6-0 129.8
Nevada 1-1 6-1 107.2
Hawaii 4-0 6-2 103.2
Fresno State 3-1 5-2 96.7
Louisiana Tech 2-1 3-4 94.5
Idaho 1-1 4-3 92.3
Utah State 0-3 2-5 91.0
San Jose State 0-3 1-7 79.3
New Mexico State 0-3 1-6 71.8

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, October 26      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
BOISE STATE Louisiana Tech 39.3 49-10
       
Thursday, October 28      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Florida State NORTH CAROLINA ST. 14.8 35-20
       
Friday, October 29      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
West Virginia CONNECTICUT 4.7 28-23
       
Saturday, October 30      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARKANSAS Vanderbilt 31.4 41-10
ARIZONA STATE Washington State 15.0 35-20
Arizona U C L A 11.1 28-17
IOWA STATE Kansas 9.0 23-14
Northwestern INDIANA 3.5 31-27
WESTERN KENTUCKY North Texas 3.3 34-31
Clemson BOSTON COLLEGE 9.9 27-17
MARYLAND Wake Forest 1.1 26-25
Auburn OLE MISS 15.4 42-27
NEBRASKA Missouri 3.4 27-24
OKLAHOMA Colorado 27.2 41-14
OREGON STATE California 0.7 28-27
PITTSBURGH Louisville 11.8 26-14
TEXAS A&M Texas Tech 11.3 38-27
TEXAS Baylor 10.8 31-20
Miami (Fl) VIRGINIA 23.6 34-10
Stanford WASHINGTON 11.6 35-23
MISSISSIPPI STATE Kentucky 10.0 34-24
ILLINOIS Purdue 14.1 31-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA East Carolina 7.7 35-27
CINCINNATI Syracuse 10.4 23-13
Florida Int’l FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5.7 27-21
IOWA Michigan State 9.9 31-21
Oklahoma State KANSAS STATE 7.5 38-30
Troy LOUISIANA-MONROE 14.5 35-20
NEVADA Utah State 19.2 40-21
SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee 25.7 38-12
SOUTHERN MISS U  a  b 9.2 35-26
Northern Illinois WESTERN MICHIGAN 12.9 34-21
TEMPLE Akron 31.3 41-10
OHIO U Louisiana-Lafayette 18.8 31-12
KENT STATE Ball State 11.6 32-20
San Diego State WYOMING 5.0 31-26
NOTRE DAME Tulsa 15.6 40-24
MARSHALL U t e p 2.2 30-28
Georgia (Jacksonville) Florida 0.9 17-16
Miami (O) BUFFALO 5.7 23-17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Bowling Green 11.1 34-23
NAVY Duke 17.6 38-20
S m u TULANE 13.3 37-24
San Jose State NEW MEXICO STATE 5.0 31-26
Toledo EASTERN MICHIGAN 14.0 35-21
COLORADO STATE New Mexico 14.0 24-10
Houston MEMPHIS 25.3 35-10
Utah AIR FORCE 11.6 32-20
Oregon SOUTHERN CAL 12.7 41-28
Ohio State MINNESOTA 27.4 34-7
PENN STATE Michigan 0.1 24-24 to ot
T c u U N L V 40.0 47-7
HAWAII Idaho 14.9 42-27

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Ratings Spreads

 

Tuesday, October 26      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
BOISE STATE Louisiana Tech 45-14 45-17
       
Thursday, October 28      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Florida State NORTH CAROLINA ST. 31-26 27-31
       
Friday, October 29      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
West Virginia CONNECTICUT 27-21 27-16
       
Saturday, October 30      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
ARKANSAS Vanderbilt 31-10 38-10
ARIZONA STATE Washington State 34-17 31-20
Arizona U C L A 27-17 34-17
IOWA STATE Kansas 31-12 35-13
Northwestern INDIANA 35-32 37-30
WESTERN KENTUCKY North Texas 38-31 41-24
Clemson BOSTON COLLEGE 33-24 32-14
MARYLAND Wake Forest 28-19 28-20
Auburn OLE MISS 38-26 42-24
NEBRASKA Missouri 28-26 27-24
OKLAHOMA Colorado 38-17 45-14
OREGON STATE California 28-27 31-21
PITTSBURGH Louisville 24-14 23-17
TEXAS A&M Texas Tech 34-28 35-31
TEXAS Baylor 28-24 27-24
Miami (Fl) VIRGINIA 31-14 30-17
Stanford WASHINGTON 38-28 40-24
MISSISSIPPI STATE Kentucky 33-24 27-25
ILLINOIS Purdue 36-21 34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA East Carolina 32-27 31-27
CINCINNATI Syracuse 23-16 21-17
Florida Int’l FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-24 30-20
IOWA Michigan State 31-26 27-26
Oklahoma State KANSAS STATE 34-31 38-30
Troy LOUISIANA-MONROE 31-20 37-13
NEVADA Utah State 49-23 48-27
SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee 31-12 31-13
SOUTHERN MISS U  a  b 40-28 41-31
Northern Illinois WESTERN MICHIGAN 30-21 35-16
TEMPLE Akron 37-7 41-7
OHIO U Louisiana-Lafayette 33-14 35-19
KENT STATE Ball State 30-21 31-21
San Diego State WYOMING 29-24 28-19
NOTRE DAME Tulsa 38-30 38-34
MARSHALL U t e p 26-25 27-23
Florida Georgia (Jacksonville) 20-19 14-23
Miami (O) BUFFALO 28-26 30-20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Bowling Green 34-24 33-21
NAVY Duke 38-19 37-20
S m u TULANE 31-24 27-21
San Jose State NEW MEXICO STATE 27-22 20-24
Toledo EASTERN MICHIGAN 37-21 38-17
COLORADO STATE New Mexico 34-17 34-17
Houston MEMPHIS 31-14 31-16
Utah AIR FORCE 28-20 31-10
Oregon SOUTHERN CAL 35-27 38-28
Ohio State MINNESOTA 34-10 44-10
Michigan PENN STATE 28-28 to ot 30-26
T c u U N L V 42-7 48-0
HAWAII Idaho 41-27 44-27

 

PiRate Bowl Look

 

Bowl Conference Conference Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or 5 WAC (#3?) San Diego St. 8-4 vs. La. Tech 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 WAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4 vs. Nevada 9-3
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 or 2 C-USA #5 Troy 9-3 vs. Tulsa 7-5
St. Petersburg Big East #6 C-USA #4 Pittsburgh 7-5 vs. S M U 7-6
Las Vegas MWC #1 Pac 10 #5 Utah 12-0 vs. (Louisville 7-5)
Poinsettia MWC #2 Navy or WAC T C U 11-1 vs. Navy 8-4
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3 C-USA #2 Hawaii 10-3 vs. East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 MAC #1 (Army 7-5) vs. Northern Ill. 11-2
Independence ACC #7 MWC #3 Maryland 7-5 vs. Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 ACC #3 Syracuse 9-3 vs. Miami (F) 9-3
Insight Big 12 #4 Big 10 #4 or 5 Oklahoma St. 10-2 vs. Illinois 7-5
Eagle Bank ACC #8 C-USA #6 Georgia Tech 6-6 vs. Houston 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6 Big 10 #6 Baylor 7-5 vs. Northwestern 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Pac 10 #2 Nebraska 11-2 vs. Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3 MWC #4 or 5 Southern Miss. 8-4 vs. B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #4 Big 12 #7 Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Texas A&M 6-6
Music City SEC # 7 ACC #6 Kentucky 7-5 vs. North Carolina 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Pac 10 #3 Texas 7-5 vs. California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #5 Big East #3 N. Carolina St. 8-4 vs. West Va. 8-4
Sun ACC #4 Pac 10 #4 Clemson 8-4 vs. Oregon St. 6-6
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 C-USA #1 South Carolina 7-5 vs. Central Florida 10-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 ACC #2 Georgia 7-6 vs. Florida St. 10-3
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #7 Big 12 #8 Penn State 6-6 vs. Texas Tech 6-6
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Big 10 #3 Florida 7-5 vs. Iowa 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 SEC #2 Ohio State 10-2 vs. Arkansas 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 SEC #6 Michigan 8-4 vs. Miss. State 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 BCS Big 10 Auburn 11-1 vs. Michigan St. 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 BCS At-Large Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Cincinnati 7-5
Orange BCS ACC BCS At-Large Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Boise St. 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC BCS At-Large Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Stanford 11-1
G M A C Sunbelt #1 or 2 MAC #2 Middle Tenn. 7-5 vs. Temple 9-3
Cotton Big 12 #2 SEC #3 or 4 Missouri 11-1 vs. L S U 9-3
Papajohns.com Big East #5 SEC #8 or 9 South Florida 7-5 vs. (Miami (O)) 8-5
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 WAC (Kansas State 7-5) vs. Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** *** BCS #2 *** Oregon 12-0 vs. Alabama 12-1

 

October 18, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 21-23, 2010

Another Winning Week Against The Spread

Seven for seven!  It has been a number of years since we started out with seven consecutive winning weeks.  The parity in the NFL has made sweetheart teasers much easier to play this year, but we decided to play straight up this past week.  We still won, finishing 5-2 for the week and making our record for the season 37-16-2.  Let’s take a look at how it went:

 

1. Miami (O) +13 vs. Central Michigan

WON 

As we told all of those who purchased our picks, we thought the wrong team was a double-digit favorite.  The populace getting action on this game went on recent year data.  Yes, CMU was a league power under Brian Kelly and Butch Jones, going 38-17 in the prior four seasons and winning two bowl games.  The Chippewas lost to Ball State a couple weeks ago! 

 

Miami won two games or less three of the previous four seasons, including a 1-11 mark last year.  They have not had a winning season since Josh Betts was a junior in Oxford.  However, this year, the Redhawks are a prime contender in the MAC East.  We picked this “upset” outright. 

2. Georgia -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

 

Those of you who have followed our picks for awhile know we do not consider any games a “lock of the week”, “four-star pick,” “guaranteed game of the year,” etc.  We treat every selection equally, as one we think should win and nothing else.  However, we did state that this line was a joke and could be a mortgage-burning game. 

We called for Georgia to win by four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs won 43-0.  This game fell under three major categories as a game to consider.  First, Georgia won by 27 at home over a conference foe that was not an arch-rival the week before and then stayed at home to face a weaker rival the following week.  Second, the weaker opponent won over a patsy at home the week before and had to play a much stronger opponent on the road the following week.  Third, every facet of play favored Georgia—GA rush vs. VU rush defense; GA pass vs. VU pass defense; GA rush defense vs. VU rush; GA pass defense vs. VU pass; and special teams. 

 

3. Eastern Michigan +14 ½ vs. Ball State

WON 

It may not have been the politically correct thing to state Thursday to those who purchased our picks, but we said, “this was a play against Coach Stan Parrish.  Poor Stan came into this game with a career coaching record of 6-45-1.  Even against a team with an 18-game losing streak, we could not see Ball State winning by more than two touchdowns.  We knew that Eastern Michigan would enter this game with confidence and play like it was their one chance to win a game this season.  We did not call for the outright upset, but we thought that Ball State would win by less than a touchdown.   

4. SMU +2 vs. Navy

Lost 

This one looked good for most of the day.  We believed that Navy would not be able to stop the Mustangs’ passing game.  We thought it would be a 35-31 SMU win, and Navy’s defense proved to be up to the challenge.  We missed this one. 

5. St. Louis Rams +7 ½ vs. San Diego Chargers

WON

 

The Chargers lost on the road at Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle, three teams that have about the same amount of talent as St. Louis.  The Rams already owned home wins over the Redskins and Seahawks.  We loved that we got more than a touchdown in this one, and it was the first game we isolated when the spread hit seven and a hook. 

6. Cleveland Browns +13 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Lost 

This was our other loss of the week, and like the first one, we came tantalizingly close to winning this one.  Cleveland scored late to cut the Pittsburgh lead to 11 and then kicked off onsides.  It failed.  The Steelers were content to run out the clock, but the Browns called time out twice.  On 3rd and long, Ben Roethlisberger through the fade into the end zone for a touchdown.  Still we had a chance, as the Browns quickly moved back into Steeler territory, but terrible game management ended the drive. 

7. Seattle Seahawks +6 vs. Chicago Bears

WON 

This was the last of the seven selections we chose last week, and to tell you the truth, had we been playing teasers, we would have left this one alone.  It was purely a system play, as the stats we compile showed it to be a toss-up game.  Seattle had an extra week to prepare, and Jay Cutler was coming off a concussion.   

Almost Like Playoffs

 

This has the makings of a great week in college football with several games serving as imitation playoffs.  At least two undefeated teams are assured of losing their first game as LSU faces Auburn and Oklahoma faces Missouri.  The other unbeatens include Michigan State playing at Northwestern.  The Wildcats had an off-week, so they benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game. 

Oklahoma State hosts Nebraska, and this looks like a close game.  If the Cowboys win this one, they could find themselves in first place in the Big 12 South.  TCU hosts Air Force, and the Horned Frogs should win by more than two touchdowns.  However, the Falcons have enough talent to challenge if TCU comes out flat.  Oregon hosts UCLA Thursday night, and we cannot see the Ducks losing at home to the Bruins.  Boise State has to wait until next Tuesday to play again, so we consider that game the following week. 

The Wild and Wacky SEC East

Look at the SEC East standings this week.  South Carolina and Florida both lost.  The Gamecocks lead the division at 2-2.  After starting league play at 0-3, Georgia is back in the race at 2-3.  Florida is also 2-3.  If the Bulldogs beat the Gators at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and Florida upends South Carolina, Georgia will be back in the driver’s seat. 

We believe there is a good chance that Georgia loses only to Auburn and finishes 4-4.  We can see South Carolina losing to Arkansas and Florida to finish 4-4.  We can see Florida losing to Georgia and beating South Carolina to finish 4-4.  Georgia would win this tiebreaker. 

Now for something even crazier.  What if Kentucky upsets Georgia this week after they upset South Carolina.  The Wildcats also started SEC play at 0-3.  A win over Georgia coupled by wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee would give them four conference wins.  Assuming they could not win at Mississippi State, Kentucky would win a three-way tiebreaker at 4-4 with South Carolina and Florida, or South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida (Georgia would have to beat Auburn in this scenario to get to 4-4). 

One more crazy thought.  With Alabama all of a sudden getting much easier to defend, and with Tennessee having a week to prepare, what if the Vols upset the Tide at Neyland Stadium this week?  It is not all that likely, but this is a tough rivalry game.  That would make Tennessee 1-3 with games left against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.  It wouldn’t be impossible to see Tennessee getting to 4-4 in this scenario. 

Only Vanderbilt appears to be totally out of the SEC East race, and yet, the Commodores are the only other team besides South Carolina with two conference losses.  The craziest thing of all:  If Vanderbilt could pull off a monumental upset over South Carolina (it is the Commodores’ Homecoming), they would move to 2-2 and be in first place in the division.  With a win over the Gamecocks, you would have to call the Tennessee and Kentucky games as winnable.  That would make Vandy 4-4.  They are more likely to finish 1-7, but just saying… 

This Week’s PiRate Top 25

 

NCAA Top 25 October 18, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 130.5 6 0
2 Boise State 129.8 6 0
3 Oklahoma 128.2 6 0
4 Alabama 127.9 6 1
5 T C U 127.4 7 0
6 Florida State 123.0 6 1
7 Auburn 122.7 7 0
8 Arkansas 122.5 4 2
9 Stanford 122.0 5 1
10 Iowa 121.4 5 1
11 South Carolina 121.0 4 2
12 Ohio State 120.8 6 1
13 Virginia Tech 120.5 5 2
14 Nebraska 120.5 5 1
15 North Carolina 119.1 4 2
16 Wisconsin 118.2 6 1
17 Texas 118.1 4 2
18 Missouri 117.8 6 0
19 Miami (Fla) 117.5 4 2
20 Utah 116.4 6 0
21 Southern Cal 116.1 5 2
22 Mississippi State 115.9 5 2
23 Arizona 115.9 5 1
24 Georgia 115.1 3 4
25 Michigan State 114.9 7 0
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

PiRate Ratings of All 120 FBS Teams (by conference)

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-0 6-1 123.0
Clemson 1-2 3-3 113.2
North Carolina State 2-1 5-2 105.2
Boston College 0-3 2-4 104.2
Wake Forest 1-3 2-5 98.8
Maryland 1-1 4-2 95.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 3-0 5-2 120.5
North Carolina 2-1 4-2 119.1
Miami-FL 2-1 4-2 117.5
Georgia Tech 3-1 5-2 113.8
Virginia 0-3 2-4 93.5
Duke 0-3 1-5 91.5

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 1-0 5-1 114.1
Pittsburgh 1-0 3-3 110.8
Cincinnati 1-0 3-3 110.2
Connecticut 0-1 3-3 107.5
South Florida 0-2 3-3 102.5
Louisville 0-1 3-3 98.4
Syracuse 1-1 4-2 98.4
Rutgers 1-0 4-2 93.3

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Iowa 2-0 5-1 121.4
Ohio State 2-1 6-1 120.8
Wisconsin 2-1 6-1 118.2
Michigan State 3-0 7-0 114.9
Michigan 1-2 5-2 107.6
Penn State 0-2 3-3 103.5
Illinois 1-2 3-3 103.3
Purdue 2-0 4-2 96.2
Northwestern 1-1 5-1 96.1
Minnesota 0-3 1-6 93.8
Indiana 0-2 4-2 91.1

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 1-1 5-1 120.5
Missouri 2-0 6-0 117.8
Colorado 0-2 3-3 102.0
Kansas State 2-1 5-1 97.9
Iowa State 1-2 3-4 91.2
Kansas 0-2 2-4 90.0
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 2-0 6-0 128.2
Texas 2-1 4-2 118.1
Texas A&M 0-2 3-3 111.2
Oklahoma State 2-0 6-0 109.1
Baylor 2-1 5-2 107.0
Texas Tech 1-3 3-3 104.2

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 2-0 4-2 100.4
Southern Mississippi 2-1 5-2 95.4
East Carolina 3-0 4-2 95.2
U A B 1-2 2-4 87.2
Marshall 0-2 1-5 83.5
Memphis 0-4 1-6 71.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-1 3-3 96.9
S M U 3-0 4-3 96.8
Tulsa 2-2 4-3 93.7
U T E P 2-2 5-2 85.6
Rice 1-2 2-5 84.8
Tulane 0-2 2-4 75.5

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   4-3 110.4
Navy   4-2 100.4
Army   4-3 90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 2-1 5-2 90.2
Miami (O) 3-0 4-3 88.6
Ohio U 3-1 4-3 88.6
Kent St. 1-2 2-4 83.7
Buffalo 1-1 2-4 81.2
Bowling Green 0-3 1-6 78.4
Akron 0-3 0-7 68.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 97.6
Toledo 3-0 4-3 86.4
Central Michigan 1-3 2-5 85.7
Western Michigan 1-1 2-4 79.5
Ball State 1-2 2-5 76.0
Eastern Michigan 1-3 1-6 69.4

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 3-0 7-0 127.4
Utah 3-0 6-0 116.4
Air Force 3-1 5-2 105.6
S. D. State 1-1 4-2 100.7
B Y U 1-2 2-5 97.5
Wyoming 0-3 2-5 91.4
Colo. State 1-2 2-5 88.3
UNLV 1-2 1-6 85.4
New Mexico 0-2 0-6 73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 3-0 6-0 130.5
Stanford 2-1 5-1 122.0
Southern Cal 2-2 5-2 116.1
Arizona 2-1 5-1 115.9
Oregon St. 2-1 3-3 113.4
California 1-2 3-3 113.0
Washington 2-1 3-3 109.9
U C L A 1-2 3-3 107.2
Arizona St. 1-2 3-3 107.0
Washington State 0-4 1-6 91.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 2-2 4-2 121.0
Georgia 2-3 3-4 115.1
Florida 2-3 4-3 114.7
Kentucky 1-3 4-3 107.9
Tennessee 0-3 2-4 98.9
Vanderbilt 1-2 2-4 93.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 3-1 6-1 127.9
Auburn 4-0 7-0 122.7
Arkansas 1-2 4-2 122.5
Mississippi State 2-2 5-2 115.9
L S U 4-0 7-0 114.7
Ole Miss 1-2 3-3 104.0

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 3-0 4-2 91.2
Florida International 2-0 2-4 85.6
Middle Tennessee 1-1 2-4 84.1
Arkansas State 2-2 2-5 81.1
U. of Louisiana 2-2 2-4 80.6
Florida Atlantic 0-2 1-4 78.5
Louisiana-Monroe 2-1 3-3 76.0
North Texas 1-3 1-6 75.8
Western Kentucky 0-2 0-6 73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 2-0 6-0 129.8
Nevada 1-1 6-1 107.2
Hawaii 3-0 5-2 97.7
Fresno State 2-1 4-2 96.9
Louisiana Tech 2-1 3-4 94.5
Utah State 0-2 2-4 94.5
Idaho 0-1 3-3 92.0
San Jose State 0-2 1-6 79.1
New Mexico State 0-2 1-5 72.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Thursday, October 21      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
OREGON U  c  l  a 26.8 37-10
       
Friday, October 22      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
CINCINNATI South Florida 10.7 31-20
       
Saturday, October 23      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
AUBURN L  s  u 11.5 36-24
ARKANSAS Ole Miss 21.5 42-20
ARIZONA Washington 9.5 31-21
STANFORD Washington State 33.7 44-10
CALIFORNIA Arizona State 9.0 30-21
COLORADO Texas Tech 0.8 33-32
Michigan State NORTHWESTERN 15.8 35-19
Georgia KENTUCKY 4.2 35-31
Connecticut LOUISVILLE 6.1 30-24
BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland 12.3 28-16
Penn State MINNESOTA 6.7 20-13
Oklahoma MISSOURI 6.9 31-24
OHIO STATE Purdue 28.1 38-10
Nebraska OKLAHOMA STATE 7.9 28-20
PITTSBURGH Rutgers 20.5 42-21
CLEMSON Georgia Tech 2.4 30-28
South Carolina VANDERBILT 24.9 28-3
BAYLOR Kansas State 12.1 38-26
TEXAS Iowa State 32.1 42-10
VIRGINIA Eastern Michigan 27.6 42-14
VIRGINIA TECH Duke 32.5 49-16
WEST VIRGINIA Syracuse 18.7 32-13
MISSISSIPPI STATE U  a  b 31.7 42-10
ILLINOIS Indiana 15.2 35-20
ARKANSAS STATE Florida Atlantic 5.6 30-24
Temple BUFFALO 6.5 24-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA Rice 19.1 31-12
IOWA Wisconsin 6.7 27-20
Texas A&M KANSAS 18.2 31-13
MIAMI (FL) North Carolina 1.4 25-24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Louisiana-Monroe 10.6 35-24
Notre Dame Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ) 10.0 34-24
Alabama TENNESSEE 25.5 33-7
MIAMI (O) Ohio U 2.5 30-27
B  Y  U Wyoming 9.6 31-21
Kent State BOWLING GREEN 2.8 31-28
Western Michigan AKRON 8.1 31-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Central Michigan 14.9 35-20
S  M  U Houston 2.9 34-31
EAST CAROLINA Marshall 14.7 38-23
IDAHO New Mexico State 22.9 45-22
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE Western Kentucky 10.5 31-20
Hawaii UTAH STATE 0.2 34-34 to ot
UTAH Colorado State 31.6 42-10
TOLEDO Ball State 13.4 30-17
Fresno State SAN JOSE STATE 15.3 27-12
T  C  U Air Force 25.3 34-9
U  T  E  P Tulane 13.1 37-24
San Diego State NEW MEXICO 24.8 35-10

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Thursday, October 21      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
OREGON U  c  l  a 40-17 41-17
       
Friday, October 22      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
CINCINNATI South Florida 30-18 28-24
       
Saturday, October 23      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
AUBURN L  s  u 30-26 33-20
ARKANSAS Ole Miss 42-30 45-27
ARIZONA Washington 28-17 24-20
STANFORD Washington State 45-12 38-10
CALIFORNIA Arizona State 27-23 27-23
Texas Tech COLORADO 31-31 to ot 34-27
Michigan State NORTHWESTERN 31-20 37-17
Georgia KENTUCKY 34-34 to ot 40-24
LOUISVILLE Connecticut 28-27 30-19
BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland 27-24 26-23
Penn State MINNESOTA 21-13 24-10
Oklahoma MISSOURI 29-28 30-17
OHIO STATE Purdue 37-17 34-17
Nebraska OKLAHOMA STATE 24-24 to ot 23-17
PITTSBURGH Rutgers 28-17 27-17
CLEMSON Georgia Tech 35-31 35-30
South Carolina VANDERBILT 28-14 27-7
BAYLOR Kansas State 30-28 34-26
TEXAS Iowa State 26-10 31-3
VIRGINIA Eastern Michigan 31-12 38-10
VIRGINIA TECH Duke 41-12 41-10
WEST VIRGINIA Syracuse 28-13 26-12
MISSISSIPPI STATE U  a  b 34-10 35-17
ILLINOIS Indiana 33-20 27-17
ARKANSAS STATE Florida Atlantic 34-26 31-20
Temple BUFFALO 24-16 26-14
CENTRAL FLORIDA Rice 34-14 35-16
IOWA Wisconsin 25-17 27-17
Texas A&M KANSAS 33-20 44-13
MIAMI (FL) North Carolina 24-21 24-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Louisiana-Monroe 34-30 35-20
Notre Dame Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ) 30-28 31-21
Alabama TENNESSEE 24-6 24-9
MIAMI (O) Ohio U 27-28 32-19
B  Y  U Wyoming 27-20 34-17
BOWLING GREEN Kent State 28-25 28-26
Western Michigan AKRON 34-21 31-21
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Central Michigan 33-20 33-14
S  M  U Houston 40-32 41-24
EAST CAROLINA Marshall 38-21 45-19
IDAHO New Mexico State 42-17 38-16
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE Western Kentucky 31-23 31-13
Hawaii UTAH STATE 38-28 42-31
UTAH Colorado State 38-9 27-10
TOLEDO Ball State 35-21 41-10
Fresno State SAN JOSE STATE 31-20 38-14
T  C  U Air Force 27-10 27-10
U  T  E  P Tulane 40-31 41-27
San Diego State NEW MEXICO 42-16 42-13

 

This Week’s Look At the Bowls

We continue to believe that only TCU and Boise State could emerge as unbeaten teams.  We can see Oregon stubbing their toe in the competitive Pac-10.  We believe Michigan State will lose once in Big Ten play.  We think Oklahoma has three chances to lose a game, and Oklahoma State and Missouri will not run the table.  We believe the Auburn-LSU winner will lose to Alabama.  TCU should dismiss Utah, so that would leave just the Horned Frogs and Broncos undefeated.  If it happens, they should finish 1-2 in the BCS standings.  If you are a fan of college football playoffs, you need to pull for this scenario to happen.  Can you predict the reaction if 11-1 Alabama and 11-1 Oregon lost out on a chance to play for the National Championship?  You can substitute 11-1 Ohio State’s, Iowa’s, Nebraska’s, Auburn’s, LSU’s, and any other 11-1 team from a major conference. 

The at-large hopefuls out there may luck out on the Pac-10 not coming up with enough teams to fulfill their obligations.  If Oregon and Stanford both end up in BCS Bowls, and with Southern Cal ineligible, the league could find itself being unable to provide bowl-eligible teams to at least one bowl and maybe as many as three.  Our ratings indicated that from among Arizona State, California, Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington, one team could finish 6-6, while the others all finish 5-7.

 

(Parentheses mean at-large selection) 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or 5 (Ohio U 7-5) WAC (#3-4) La. Tech 6-6
Humanitarian MAC #3 Temple 9-3 WAC #1 or 2 Nevada 10-2
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 or 2 Troy 9-3 C-USA #5 U T E P 8-5
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Syracuse 6-6 C-USA #4 Southern Miss 8-4
Las Vegas MWC #1 Utah 11-1 Pac 10 #5 (Cincinnati 7-5)
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC Navy 7-5
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3 Hawaii 10-3 C-USA #2 East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 Northwestern 6-6 MAC #1 Northern Ill. 10-3
Independence ACC #7 Miami 7-5 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 Notre Dame 7-5 ACC #3 North Carolina 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Wisconsin 9-3
Eagle Bank ACC #8 Maryland 6-6 C-USA #6 S M U 7-6
Texas Big 12 #6 Baylor 7-5 Big 10 #6 Illinois 8-4
Alamo Big 12 #3 Nebraska 11-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3 Tulsa 8-4 MWC #4 or 5 B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #4 Rutgers 6-6 Big 12 #7 Texas Tech 6-6
Music City SEC # 7 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #6 Georgia Tech 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Oklahoma St. 10-2 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #5 Clemson 7-5 Big East #3 Pittsburgh 7-5
Sun ACC #4 N. Carolina St. 8-4 Pac 10 #4 (Boston Coll. 7-5)
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 7-5 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 Florida 7-5 ACC #2 Florida State 10-3
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #7 Penn State 6-6 Big 12 #8 Kansas St. 6-6
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Georgia 7-6 Big 10 #3 Ohio State 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. 11-1 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 9-3 SEC #6 South Carolina 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 Oregon 11-1 BCS Big 10 Iowa 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 12-1 BCS At-Large West Virginia 10-2
Orange BCS ACC Virginia Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large Stanford 11-1
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Alabama 10-2
G M A C Sunbelt #1 or 2 Florida Int’l 6-6 MAC #2 Miami (O) 9-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Texas 10-2 SEC #3 or 4 Arkansas 10-2
Papajohns.com Big East #5 South Florida 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 (Army 7-5)
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 (Toledo 8-4) WAC Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Boise State 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** TCU 12-0

 

October 11, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 13-16, 2010

Another Great Weekend Against The Spread

 

It was nip and tuck with a couple of games, but when the dust cleared, we went 4-1 against the spread in our selections this past weekend.  That brings our record for the season to 32-14-2 for 69.6%.  As a result, we are advising our clients who have played every week to take some off the table and guarantee yourself a winning season.  We would like to believe we could continue at this pace, but being logical, 70% is uncanny for this late in the season.  Yes, we believe we have found some nice trends in the NFL and have exploited those trends, but they could change in a week.  Here is how our selections panned out.

 

1. College 10-point Sweetheart Teaser

Syracuse +17 ½ vs. South Florida, Michigan State +14 ½ vs. Michigan, and Utah +4 vs. Iowa State.

WON

Our goal with this one was to make two hot teams double digit underdogs in games where we thought they should be favored.  Syracuse and Michigan State did not disappoint, and they both pulled off upsets.  As for Utah, we liked getting points.  The Utes have quietly moved into the Top 10, and if not for TCU, they would be talked about in the BCS at-large bowl picture.

2. College 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Missouri +1 ½ vs. Colorado, Ohio U +4 vs. Bowling Green, LSU +19 ½ vs. Florida, and California +5 ½ vs. UCLA

WON

We felt Missouri would win versus the Buffs, but we did not like the spread.  By moving them to an underdog, we were secure in our beliefs.  The same went for Ohio U and Cal.  BGU could not beat the Bobcats if they played 50 times this year.  We felt the Bears would win or lose by a field goal or less.

We are not about to say we thought LSU would win at Gainesville, but we had faith in defensive coordinator John Chavis to keep this game close. 

3. NFL 10-point Sweetheart Teaser

Baltimore +3 vs. Denver, Indianapolis +3 vs. Kansas City, and Cincinnati +3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

WON

 We won this one by a mere half-point, but we will take it.  We’ve lost our share by that amount in the past.

 We took three teams that we thought would win close games and made them underdogs.  We hit it right on with the Ravens and Colts, and we got lucky that the Bengals only lost by three.

 4. 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Green Bay & Washington Under 57, New York Giants & Houston Under 60 ½, San Diego & Oakland Under 57 ½, and Tennessee & Dallas Under 55

Loss

We thought that we had a good one here with teams that either lacked enough offense to hurt us or had good enough defenses to make this one work.  It worked with the first two games, but Oakland caught fire late and lost this one for us, and then Tennessee and Dallas scored three times late to pile on.

5. 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Carolina & Chicago Over 20, St. Louis & Detroit Over 30, Atlanta & Cleveland Over 27 ½, and Tampa Bay & Cincinnati Over 25

WON

 This was the opposite approach to selection number 4.  We felt we had four games where either weak defense and/or better than advertised offense combined with a huge movement in a small totals line gave us a great advantage.  We actually thought that the only game we had to worry about here was the Rams-Lions game, and Detroit covered it all by themselves.

Time To Look At The Bowls

The college season is about half over, so it is time to start looking at the bowl possibilities.  Unlike the other places that just pick teams for each bowl, we like to look at it conference by conference and then place the teams in the bowl based on that data.  Here goes.

A C C

After starting 0-2 with a loss to James Madison, it looked like Virginia Tech was headed for a major disappointing season.  Can you remember 1995?  The Hokies lost their first two games to less than mediocre opponents and then ran the table, including a Sugar Bowl win over Texas.  Va. Tech could easily run the table once again and head to the Orange Bowl.

Florida State is their principal rival.  The Seminoles dismantled Miami Saturday night, but they have to prove they can play that way week after week.  We feel that FSU has the talent to win the Coastal Division.

North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, and Miami are good enough to pull off an upset and beat the weaker teams, but we do not feel like any of this trio can win a division flag.

North Carolina, Clemson, Boston College, and Maryland will all vie for six wins and bowl eligibility.  We feel like all four will get there, with the Tar Heels getting to seven wins.

1. BCS (Orange)—Virginia Tech

2. Chick-fil-A—Florida State

3. Champs Sports—North Carolina State

4. Sun—Miami

5. Meineke Car Care—North Carolina

6. Music City—Georgia Tech

7. Independence—Clemson

8. Eagle Bank—Maryland

Big East

This league has no dominant team, so don’t expect a 7-0 or 0-7 conference record this season.  West Virginia has the most talent, but the Mountaineers play inconsistently.  Still, we believe they have enough horses to go 6-1 and grab the league’s automatic BCS bowl berth.

We believe three teams will come up one win short—Connecticut, Pittsburgh, and Louisville.  We thought Rutgers might fall below .500 this season, but their win over UConn probably ensured them a sixth win.

South Florida and Cincinnati are not world beaters this season, but both should find a way to reach bowl eligibility.

As for the Syracuse Orangemen, their win at USF Saturday probably put them over the top.  We believe SU will contend for the league crown now, and they should win another four games.

Notre Dame is included here, because the Irish are included in the Big East Bowl Alignment.  They will get to seven wins and take one of the bids.

1. BCS (Fiesta)—West Virginia

2. Champs Sports—Syracuse

3. Meineke Car Care—Notre Dame

4. Pinstripe—Rutgers

5. PapaJohns—Cincinnati

6. St. Petersburg—South Florida

Big Ten

Ohio State occupies the top spot in the polls this week, but we feel like they will stumble at least one time before the end of the season.  Iowa appears to be the one team that can shut down the Buckeyes’ offense, and we believe the Hawkeyes can capture the conference flag.

Michigan State has to be considered in this race, but the Spartans, like Ohio State, must travel to Iowa City.

Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan should fight it out for the next three spots, while Penn State and Northwestern vie for the bottom two.  It looks to us like Purdue and Indiana will come up one win short, while Minnesota will run the table the wrong way in the conference.

Because we feel like there will be two undefeated teams from outside the automatic qualifying conferences, and we believe there will be too many one-loss teams available, we are going to call for the Big Ten to miss out on a second BCS bowl bid.

1. BCS (Rose)—Iowa

2. Capital One—Ohio State

3. Outback—Michigan State

4. Gator—Michigan

5. Insight—Wisconsin

6. Texas—Illinois

7. Dallas Football Classic—Penn State

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza—Northwestern

Big 12

Nebraska has the horses to run the table.  The Cornhuskers should take care of business with Texas this week, and their only tough opponent remaining would be Missouri.  We will call for the ‘Huskers to go 12-0 in the regular season, but we believe they will fall in the Conference Championship Game.

Oklahoma is the team we believe that will win the league’s automatic bid, but we also believe the Sooners will be upset one time in conference play.  OU has road games with Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, and it is our opinion that they will lose one of these.

Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas are the best of the rest in the league.  After that, it looks like there could be five teams finishing at 6-6 (Colorado, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech).

1. BCS (Fiesta)—Oklahoma

2. BCS (Sugar)—Nebraska

3. Cotton—Missouri

4. Alamo—Texas

5. Insight—Oklahoma State

6. Holiday—Colorado

7. Texas—Texas A&M

8. Pinstripe—Baylor

9. Dallas Football Classic—Kansas State

Pac-10

Oregon is the top team in the nation today, correct?  We say, “not so fast my friends.”  If the NCAA staged a post-season tournament in the FBS division, then Oregon might be the favorite to emerge victorious.  However, this is a one-loss and you might be out of it brand of football.  In the topsy-turvy Pac-10, there are too many good offenses to give any team a great shot at going 9-0.  Thus, we pick the Ducks to stub their webbed feet at least one time.  They will end up in Pasadena.

Stanford, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State will gain bowl eligibility, while Washington, UCLA, and Arizona State might all end up one win short.  With Southern Cal ineligible, it looks like there will be an opening for an at-large team to take a bowl bid.

1. BCS (Rose)—Oregon

2. Alamo—Stanford

3. Holiday—Arizona

4. Sun—California

5. Las Vegas—Oregon State

6. Kraft Fight Hunger—At-large team needed

SEC

 

Alabama might still be the best team in the land, but there is a chance they will never move up enough spots to play for the title.  We believe the Tide will win out and eliminate their arch-rival from the big game.   

Auburn could enter the season finale at 11-0 and be looking at a possible National Championship Game bid, but we believe they will fall to ‘Bama.

 

L S U is the luckiest undefeated team in the land, but their luck will run out a couple times.  Arkansas will win at least nine games, while the two Mississippi schools could end up 6-6 to make the enter Western Division bowl eligible.

 

The East will be lucky to send four teams to bowls, and it is a remote possibility that only two will get to six wins.  South Carolina and Florida will decide the division champion in their game in Gainesville in November.  We’ll give the edge to the Gators, and then the Gators will lose a second time to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. 

1. BCS (Sugar)—Alabama

2. BCS (Orange)—Auburn

3. Capital One—South Carolina

4. Outback—L S U

5. Cotton—Arkansas

6. Chick-fil-A—Florida

7. Gator—Georgia

8. Music City—Mississippi State

9. Liberty—Ole Miss

10. PapaJohns—Kentucky 

Mountain West 

Don’t engrave the letters T, C, and U on the conference championship trophy just yet.  Utah is also undefeated and in the top 10.  The Utes host the Frogs, and Utah has already enjoyed two undefeated seasons in the last six seasons.  The big game takes place in Salt Lake City on November 6. 

We will call the Horned Frogs the winner because we picked them to go 12-0 before the season started.

 

Utah could easily finish 11-1 and should finish at least 10-2.  Air Force has the rockets to win nine times.  San Diego State should become bowl eligible and play in a bowl for the first time in a dozen years.  BYU has a much easier schedule down the stretch, and we believe the Cougars will get their sixth win. 

Disclaimer: Because we believe TCU will get a rematch with Boise State in a BCS Bowl and because we believe the Pac-10 will not satisfy all its bowl arrangements, and because Utah will soon be a member there, we believe that an 11-1 Ute team could end up being dealt to a Pac-10 spot.   

1. BCS At-Large (NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Air Force

3. Poinsettia—Utah (See Above Disclaimer)

4. Independence—B Y U

5. Armed Forces—At-large spot to ARMY

6. New Mexico— San Diego State 

WAC 

Boise State has two tough games remaining.  By tough, we are talking about games where they may not win by three touchdowns or more.  The Broncos should run the table and finish the regular season ranked at the top in the human polls (unless some shady voters purposely vote them lower to give a BCS conference team a better chance to crack the National Championship Game). 

Nevada could be 11-0 when Boise State visits Reno on Friday night, November 26.  The Wolf Pack have a chance to play big spoiler, and if they should happen to pull off the unlikely upset and then take care of business a week later at Louisiana Tech, then who could say they don’t deserve to play in a BCS Bowl. 

Hawaii will win enough games to earn their home bowl’s bid.  Fresno State, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech should all figure in the picture.

 

1. BCS (NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)—Boise State

2. Humanitarian—Nevada

3. New Mexico—Louisiana Tech

4. Hawaii—Hawaii

5. Kraft Fight Hunger—Fresno State 

Conference USA 

Houston lost not one but two quarterbacks against UCLA, and with that lost any chance to have a Boise State or TCU type of season.  We doubt any league team will go 8-0 in conference play, and 6-2 could be enough to win a spot in the conference championship game.

 

Central Florida, Southern Mississippi, and East Carolina all have a shot in the East, while SMU and UTEP appear to be the top contenders in the West.  Houston still has a shot even with their number three quarterback, while Tulsa still has a mathematical chance.  All seven teams should gain bowl eligibility. 

1. Liberty—Central Florida

2. Hawaii—S M U

3. Armed Forces—Tulsa

4. St. Petersburg—Southern Mississippi

5. New Orleans—Houston