PiRate Picks For November 24-26, 2022

Just when we got our imaginary bank account into the black, we lost just enough this past week to take it a few dollars back into the red. What worked so well for a couple weeks came to a crashing halt last week in this topsy-turvy season.

We’re going to play it a bit more conservatively this week, but play more games in a conservative manner. We’ve chosen to games to play straight up, and then five Money Line Parlays. Remember, we never wager real money on these selections and suggest you follow our lead. Don’t get heartburn after consuming your turkey and then not be able to go max your cards out on Friday.

Selection #1: Eastern Michigan +1 1/2 vs. Central Michigan

Selection #2: Florida Atlantic + 7 1/2 vs. Western Kentucky

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay @ +136.48

Cincinnati over Tulane

LSU over Texas A&M

Selection #4: Money Line Parlay @ +136.90

Washington over Washington State

Ohio State over Michigan

Selection #5: Money Line Parlay @ +127.74

Southern Miss. over UL-Monroe

North Carolina over North Carolina St.

Selection #6: Money Line Parlay @ +125.59

Arizona over Arizona St.

Marshall over Georgia St.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay @ +250.54

Buffalo over Kent St.

SMU over Memphis

Louisiana over Texas St.

PiRate Picks — October 27, 2022

Due to overwhelming new scheduling issues, this feature is truncated this week.

Selection #1: 3, team 10-point Teaser (-130)

Miami (O) + 1 1/2 vs. Akron

Penn St. + 25 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

Virginia + 11 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla)

Selection #2: Money Line Parlay @ +169.53

South Carolina over Missouri

SMU over Tulsa

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay @ +166.75

North Carolina over Pittsburgh

Wake Forest over Louisville

PiRate Picks For September 16-17, 2022

That broken clock finally failed to show the correct time on the PiRate Ship. Last week, our five picks came in at 1-4, dropping our profit for the season to $1,211.77 ($1,311.77 left in the imaginary account).

We’re back to where we normally are in September. Usually, when we have a bad week, our saving grace in the past has been Money Line Parlays playing at +140 or higher odds. We had a tough time finding one really good parlay this week. While we like odds in the range of +140 to +180, we couldn’t find the right number of games to make this range work out. We also don’t like to play more than three games in a parlay, so it came down to going with 3 at more than +200 or go to five bigger favorites to get to +155 and change.

We also tend to like to play an odd number of games to eliminate the .500 record that results in a small loss. Of course, when one of those selections is a parlay that pays different than the straight 11-10 odds, a .500 record could be a winning week if one of those wins is the parlay.

Our selections this week are all about the numbers more than the actual teams playing. Without further adieu, here are our selections for the week. Remember: We never wager real money on our picks, and we highly suggest that you follow our lead.

Selection 1: Wyoming +14 1/2 vs. Air Force

This is a nice rivalry game, and the last time the margin of this game exceeded 14 points was 2013. Wyoming’s schedule has been considerably stronger than Air Force’s, as Illinois and Tulsa are both stronger than Colorado. Craig Bohl teams tend to be stronger against the run than the pass, so this looks like a good play to be on the side where the top four margins by frequency come with it (3, 7, 10, and 14 points represent the final margin in 1/4 of all college football games).

Selection #2: Wyoming & Air Force Under 46 1/2

For the same reasons above, this game appeals to us for the total. We think this game is more like a 20-17 game, which falls well under 46 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Maryland -2 1/2 vs. SMU

The PiRates really prefer to go with underdogs that we believe should be favorites, but there were no short ‘dogs this week that really jumped off the page. We believe that Maryland is better than a touchdown stronger than SMU. Game outcomes of 1 and 2 points occur just 5.9% of the time, and that includes 5.9% of the time that the favorite and the underdog win by 1 or 2.

Selection #4: Northern Illinois -2 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

Ditto the game above. Except, Vanderbilt exposed itself by showing its real weakness last week against Wake Forest. The Huskies were somewhat shocked by Tulsa in week one, but they should rebound in week two.

Selection #5: Nebraska and Oklahoma Under 66 1/2

What do you get when you combine a defensive genius head coach coaching in his third ever game against a big rival with a coach making his debut when a few days ago, he was an assistant coach? Usually, you get a hard-fought game that tends to be a little more defense-oriented. The Cornhuskers should play their best game of the season for interim coach Mickey Joseph, while the Sooners may play it a bit more conservatively. An OU win similar to last year’s game, which ended with 39 total points scored.

Selection #6: California and Notre Dame Over 40 1/2

Notre Dame last started a season 0-3 in 2007. Before Irish fans jump out of buildings, they were 0-2 in 2011 with a loss to a weak South Florida team and proceeded to win eight of their next nine games. Cal isn’t the best defensive team in the land, even though the Bears are only giving up 13.5 points per game so far. UC-Davis and UNLV are not offensive juggernauts.

If this game ends 21-20, it beats the total by a half-point. Notre Dame and Marshall combined for 47 points, and Cal’s offense is better than Marshall’s.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay at +204.42

Penn State over Auburn

Texas A&M over Miami (Fla.)

North Carolina St. over Texas Tech

Auburn barely beat a mediocre San Jose State team last week. A weaker Penn State team than this year’s squad defeated a stronger Auburn team than this year’s squad last year.

If Texas A&M loses again this week, Jimbo Fisher might be sharing a beer with Scott Frost the following Saturday somewhere outside of a football stadium.

Texas Tech’s win over Houston is getting a lot more accolades than it probably should have gotten. N.C. State’s narrow escape over East Carolina probably got too much as well. This is still a Wolf Pack team capable of winning the ACC Title.

American Athletic Conference Preview

Just when a Group of 5 Conference is getting really good with maybe three teams strong enough to contend for a 2022-23 Playoff berth, said league is about to lose all three really good teams. Cincinnati broke through the insiders’ club last year, when the Bearcats ran the table in the regular season and became the first G5 school to receive a bid to the National Championship Playoffs. It was the second consecutive year that Cinti won every regular season game.

Alas, the Bearcats are headed to the Big 12 Conference. Going with them are the other two really good teams–Houston and Central Florida. A host of Conference USA teams will replace the really good teams, and this league will fall back in the Group of 5 pecking order.

This will be one interesting race this year. Houston and Cincinnati are not scheduled to play, but there is a decent chance they will face each other in game 13 in December.

American Athletic Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.2	110.3	112.8	111.4
Houston	105.0	104.7	106.5	105.4
UCF	103.8	104.5	104.6	104.3
SMU	102.2	101.3	102.3	101.9
East Carolina	99.5	99.1	100.4	99.7
Tulane	98.6	97.7	97.9	98.1
Memphis	97.0	97.5	96.9	97.1
Tulsa	95.8	94.8	95.7	95.4
USF	96.2	94.7	95.1	95.3
Navy	92.9	92.1	91.3	92.1
Temple	80.9	83.4	78.6	81.0
AAC	98.5	98.2	98.4	98.3

American Athletic Conference Official Media Poll

		Votes
#	Team	1st Place	Overall
1	Houston	7	243
2	Cincinnati	10	242
3	Central Florida	7	225
4	SMU	0	187
5	Memphis	0	162
6	East Carolina	0	157
7	Tulane	0	115
8	Tulsa	0	93
9	South Florida	0	71
10	Navy	0	61
11	Temple	0	28

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

AAC	Conf	Overall
Cincinnati	8-0	12-1
Houston	8-0	11-2
Central Florida	7-1	10-2
SMU	5-3	7-5
East Carolina	4-4	6-6
Memphis	3-5	6-6
Tulsa	3-5	6-6
Tulane	2-6	5-7
South Florida	2-6	3-9
Navy	2-6	3-9
Temple	0-8	2-10

Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/7/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Arizona	Gonzaga	Baylor	Auburn
2	Kansas	Kentucky	Duke	Purdue
3	Wisconsin	Villanova	Tennessee	Texas Tech
4	Illinois	Providence	UCLA	Arkansas
5	Connecticut	Houston	Texas	Alabama
6	Saint Mary’s	LSU	Iowa	Ohio St.
7	Colorado St.	USC	Boise St.	Seton Hall
8	Michigan St.	Iowa St.	Murray St.	Marquette
9	North Carolina	San Diego St.	TCU	San Francisco
10	Creighton	Michigan	Loyola (Chi.)	Davidson
11	Miami (Fla.)	Memphis	Xavier	Notre Dame
12	South Dakota St.	North Texas	Wake Forest	Wyoming	Rutgers	SMU
13	Iona	Toledo	Chattanooga	Vermont
14	New Mexico St.	Princeton	Towson	Montana St.
15	Long Beach St.	Longwood	Jacksonville St.	Colgate
16	Georgia St.	Purdue Ft. Wayne	Bryant	Nicholls St.	Norfolk St.	Texas Southern

Last 4 Byes

Miami (Fla.)

Memphis

Xavier

Notre Dame

Last Four In

Wake Forest

Wyoming

Rutgers

SMU

First Four Out

VCU

Indiana

BYU

Dayton

Next Four Out

Texas A&M

Florida

Virginia Tech

Saint Louis

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/28/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Arizona	Gonzaga	Baylor	Kansas
2	Auburn	Duke	Kentucky	Purdue
3	Texas Tech	Villanova	Wisconsin	Tennessee
4	Providence	Illinois	Connecticut	UCLA
5	Texas	Arkansas	Ohio St.	Alabama
6	Houston	Saint Mary’s	USC	Michigan St.
7	LSU	Marquette	Iowa	Iowa St.
8	Colorado St.	Boise St.	Seton Hall	Murray St.
9	Wyoming	TCU	Notre Dame	Xavier
10	Creighton	San Francisco	Wake Forest	Davidson
11	North Texas	North Carolina	San Diego St.	Miami (Fla.)
12	Iona	South Dakota St.	Indiana	Memphis	Michigan	SMU
13	Chattanooga	New Mexico St.	Toledo	Vermont
14	Towson	Texas St.	Princeton	Northern Iowa
15	Jacksonville St.	Montana St.	Long Beach St.	Longwood
16	Colgate	Purdue Ft. Wayne	Bryant	Nicholls St.	Norfolk St.	Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69	Loyola (Chi.)
70	BYU
71	Rutgers
72	Florida
73	VCU
74	Virginia Tech
75	Oregon
76	St. Bonaventure
77	Dayton
78	Oklahoma
79	Mississippi St.
80	Belmont

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/25/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Arizona	Kansas	Auburn
2	Kentucky	Baylor	Purdue	Duke
3	Texas Tech	Villanova	Tennessee	Wisconsin
4	Illinois	UCLA	Providence	Texas
5	Ohio St.	Connecticut	Alabama	Houston
6	Arkansas	LSU	USC	Marquette
7	Iowa	Michigan St.	Iowa St.	Saint Mary’s
8	Colorado St.	Boise St.	Xavier	Murray St.
9	Seton Hall	Wyoming	Creighton	TCU
10	Miami (Fla.)	Michigan	San Francisco	Wake Forest
11	Notre Dame	Davidson	Loyola (Chi.)	North Carolina
12	North Texas	Iona	San Diego St.	Memphis	Rutgers	Indiana
13	Chattanooga	South Dakota St.	New Mexico St.	Vermont
14	Toledo	Wagner	Towson	Montana St.
15	Princeton	Texas St.	Long Beach St.	Jacksonville St.
16	Cleveland St.	Longwood	Colgate	Nicholls St.	Norfolk St.	Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69	SMU
70	BYU
71	VCU
72	Oregon
73	Dayton
74	Florida
75	Virginia
76	St. Bonaventure
77	UAB
78	Virginia Tech
79	Belmont
80	Mississippi St.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/21/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Arizona	Kansas	Auburn
2	Kentucky	Baylor	Purdue	Duke
3	Texas Tech	Illinois	Villanova	Tennessee
4	Wisconsin	UCLA	Providence	Texas
5	Alabama	Houston	Ohio St.	Connecticut
6	LSU	Arkansas	Michigan St.	USC
7	Marquette	Saint Mary’s	Xavier	Colorado St.
8	Boise St.	Iowa St.	Seton Hall	Murray St.
9	Wyoming	Iowa	San Francisco	TCU
10	Wake Forest	Davidson	San Diego St.	Creighton
11	Notre Dame	Miami (Fla.)	Indiana	Memphis	Michigan
12	North Texas	Iona	Chattanooga	Loyola (Chi.)	North Carolina
13	South Dakota St.	New Mexico St.	Northern Iowa	Vermont
14	Toledo	Wagner	Towson	Montana St.
15	Jacksonville St.	Princeton	Texas St.	UC-Irvine
16	Cleveland St.	Colgate	Longwood	New Orleans	Norfolk St.	Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69	BYU
70	SMU
71	Florida
72	Rutgers
73	VCU
74	Belmont
75	Oklahoma
76	Oregon

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sep 3-7

This Week’s Games

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Southern Miss.	South Alabama	7.3	6.5	9.3
Army	Middle Tenn.	5.2	6.9	4.5
Texas St.	SMU	-22.6	-21.1	-24.1
Memphis	Arkansas St.	18.0	13.9	17.7
Navy	BYU	4.9	4.5	3.3

FBS vs. FCS (PiRate Only)

FBS	FCS	PiRate
UAB	Cent. Arkansas	8.6
Marshall	E. Kentucky	21.5
North Texas	Hou. Baptist	26.9
UTEP	S F Austin	7.8

Note: Game Spreads Have Been Adjusted From Ratings Due To Covid-19 Opt-outs.

This Week’s Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.
1	Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3
2	L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
3	Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
4	Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
5	Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
6	Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
7	Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2
8	Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0
9	Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
10	Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7
11	Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
12	N. Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8
13	Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
14	Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6
15	Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1
16	Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
17	UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
18	Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
19	Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
20	Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
21	S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
22	Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
23	Ole Miss	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
24	Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0
25	Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0
26	Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
27	T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
28	Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
29	Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6
30	Miss. St.	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
31	Appal. St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2
32	Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0
33	Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2
34	SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7
35	BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3
36	Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2
37	W. Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7
38	Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2
39	Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
40	Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
41	Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4
42	Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7
43	Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0
44	W. Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7
45	Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
46	Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
47	Georgia Sou.	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0
48	Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
49	Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4
50	Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3
51	Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6
52	Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
53	USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2
54	NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
55	U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4
56	Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
57	Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6
58	E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
59	Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3
60	Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8
61	Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5
62	Coastal Car.	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6
63	Middle Tenn.	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8
64	Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
65	Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
66	La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
67	Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
68	Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4
69	Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
70	UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3
71	S. Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6
72	Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
73	North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
74	Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6
75	U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3
76	U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8	0-0	0-0
Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1	0-0	0-0
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1	0-0	0-0
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7	0-0	0-0
Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0	0-0	0-0
SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7	0-0	0-0
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2	0-0	0-0
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1	0-0	0-0
Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6	0-0	0-0
USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2	0-0	0-0
E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9	0-0	0-0
AAC Averages	101.5	100.7	100.4	100.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3	0-0	0-0
Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2	0-0	0-0
N. Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8	0-0	0-0
Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1	0-0	0-0
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9	0-0	0-0
Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0	0-0	0-0
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4	0-0	0-0
Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6	0-0	0-0
Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2	0-0	0-0
Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2	0-0	0-0
Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5	0-0	0-0
Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7	0-0	0-0
Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0	0-0	0-0
Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-0
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6	0-0	0-0
ACC Averages	104.9	105.4	105.3	105.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0	0-0	0-0
Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7	0-0	0-0
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3	0-0	0-0
Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6	0-0	0-0
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1	0-0	0-0
Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0	0-0	0-0
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3	0-0	0-0
W. Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7	0-0	0-0
Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4	0-0	0-0
Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5	0-0	0-0
Big 12 Averages	106.7	106.0	106.7	106.5
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
W. Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7	0-0	0-0
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5	0-0	0-0
Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3	0-0	0-0
U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4	0-0	0-0
Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3	0-0	0-0
Middle Tenn.	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8	0-0	0-0
La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4	0-0	0-0
Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4	0-0	0-0
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3	0-0	0-0
Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9	0-0	0-0
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7	0-0	0-0
U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3	0-0	0-0
U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9	0-0	0-0
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.0	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3	x	0-0
Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8	x	0-0
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4	x	0-0
Ind. Averages	92.7	94.0	92.7	93.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8	0-0	0-0
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9	0-0	0-0
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8	0-0	0-0
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2	0-0	0-0
S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3	0-0	0-0
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5	0-0	0-0
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8	0-0	0-0
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3	0-0	0-0
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5	0-0	0-0
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8	0-0	0-0
Miss. St.	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1	0-0	0-0
Ole Miss	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4	0-0	0-0
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3	0-0	0-0
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Appal. St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2	0-0	0-0
Georgia Sou.	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0	0-0	0-0
Coastal Car.	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6	0-0	0-0
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8	0-0	0-0
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2	0-0	0-0
Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6	0-0	0-0
UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3	0-0	0-0
S. Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6	0-0	0-0
Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6	0-0	0-0
SBC Averages	90.1	90.7	89.9	90.2

This Week’s Free College Pick–And You Get What You Pay For!

We are toning down the selections against the spread this year due to the lack of games each week and the uncertainty of available personnel.  We will issue a minimum of selections and highly urge you to not use this non-advice.  All wagers will be done at the pretend amount of $100 units.

 

1. Money Line Parlay (+103)

        Southern Miss over South Alabama

        Navy over BYU

2013 American Athletic Conference Preview

2013 American Athletic Conference Preview

 

Say hello to the newest FBS conference.  The AAC formed when the Catholic, non-scholarship football schools from the Big East and the schools that play football divided into two leagues.  For just one season, this conference will still field a somewhat decent roster of teams, but two of the most prestigious schools will leave for greener pastures at the end of this season.  With three more teams joining this league from Conference USA next year, it will basically make this new league the original Conference USA with a new name.

 

For this one season, the last that really matters for receiving a bid to a big bowl with the maximum payout, there is a team capable of challenging for the national championship.

 

Louisville should be favored to win all 12 games, and the Cardinals will not be required to play in a conference championship game to advance to the national title game should a 12-0 record earn them one of the top two spots in the final BCS National Championship Game.

 

If any school is capable of upsetting the Cardinals, it would be Cincinnati.  The Bearcats change coaches this season, as Butch Jones left for Tennessee.  He is replaced by journeyman coach Tommy Tuberville, who has piloted the likes of Ole Miss, Auburn, and Texas Tech.

 

Rutgers returns a significant amount of talent from last season’s 9-4 campaign, and the Scarlet Knights should compete with a trio of other teams for the third spot in the league.  Central Florida, South Florida, and SMU will compete with RU for the third spot.

 

Connecticut and Houston should be considered dark horses in the AAC race, while Memphis and Temple will bring up the rear.

 

 

New Teams: The members of the AAC played in either the Big East or CUSA last year.

 

Central Florida			CUSA
Cincinnati			Big East
Connecticut			Big East
Houston			CUSA
Louisville			Big East
Memphis			CUSA
Rutgers			Big East
S M U			CUSA
South Florida			Big East
Temple			Big East

 

 

Departed Teams: None, since this is the first season

 

2014 Additions: East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa move from CUSA, giving the AAC nine former CUSA members (Cincinnati and South Florida were once in CUSA).

 

2014 Departures: Louisville leaves for the ACC, while Rutgers heads to the Big Ten, leaving this league with no team that played in every Big East season and leaving just Connecticut and Temple that did not play in CUSA.

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

American Athletic Conference Team Conf. Overall PiRate Mean Bias Louisville 0-0 0-0 115.3 113.4 116.5 Cincinnati 0-0 0-0 105.5 105.9 105.9 Rutgers 0-0 0-0 99.3 104.2 100.1 Central Florida 0-0 0-0 98.2 97.5 99.2 South Florida 0-0 0-0 94.5 92.9 93.5 S M U 0-0 0-0 94.1 101.9 94.6 Connecticut 0-0 0-0 93.6 101.3 94.2 Houston 0-0 0-0 89.4 101.0 90.9 Memphis 0-0 0-0 88.7 98.4 89.7 Temple 0-0 0-0 87.6 85.1 85.6             League Averages     96.6 100.2 97.0     Official AAC Media Poll
Pos	Team	Points	1st Place
1	Louisville	298	28
2	Cincinnati	257	2
3	Rutgers	240	0
4	Central Florida	210	0
5	South Florida	155	0
6	Houston	134	0
7	Connecticut	131	0
8	S M U	118	0
9	Temple	60	0
10	Memphis	47	0

 

The AAC has not released an official preseason all-conference team.  Here is a list of key players for each of the members:

 

Central Florida

Blake Bortles—QB (62.9% comp/7.7 ypa/25 TD/7 Int)

Storm Johnson—RB (507 rush/4.5 avg)

J. J. Worton—WR (44-594/5 TD)

Breshad Perriman—WR (26-388/3 TD)

Justin McCray and Torrian Wilson—OL

Thomas Niles—DL (5 sacks/7 QB hurries)

Terrance Plummer—LB (108 tackles/7 TFL)

Clayton Geathers—DB (117 tackles)

 

Cincinnati

Brendon Kay—QB (63.0%/9.4 ypa/10 TD/2 Int—as co-starter)

Dan Sprague, Sam Longo, Austen Bujnoch, and Eric Lefeld—OL

Jordan Stepp—DL (4 TFL)

Greg Blair—LB (138 tackles/9 TFL/4 QB Hurries/8 Passes Defended)

Deven Drane—DB (43 tackles/9 Passes Defended)

Arryn Chenault—DB (3 Int/6 Passes Defended)

Tony Miliano—K (17-22 FG)

 

Connecticut

Lyle McCombs—RB (860 rush/6 TD)

Geremy Davis—WR (44-613)

Shamar Stephen—DL (26 tackles)

Yawin Smallwood—LB (120 tackles/15 TFL/4 Passes Defended)

Byron Jones—DB (88 tackles)

Chad Kristen—K (14-21 FG Strong Leg)

 

Houston

Daniel Spencer—WR (41-579)

Deontay Greenberry—WR (47-564)

Bryce Redman and Rowdy Harper—OL

Derrick Matthews—LB (126 tackles/6 sacks/17 TFL/9 QB Hurries)

Zach McMillian—DB (5 Int./11 Passes Defended)

Trevon Stewart—DB (126 tackles/8 Passes Defended)

Richie Leone—P (45.5 avg./39.7 net)

 

Louisville

Teddy Bridgewater—QB (68.5% comp./8.9 ypa/27 TD/8 Int. Heisman Candidate)

Michael Dyer—RB (former 1,242 yard rusher for Auburn in 2010)

DeVante Parker—WR (40-744/10 TD)

Damian Copeland—WR (50-628)

Jake Smith and John Miller—OL

Marcus Smith—DL (29 tackles/4 sacks/ 7 TFL)

Preston Brown—LB (109 tackles/5 Passes Defended)

Calvin Pryor—DB (100 tackles/7 Passes Defended)

Terrell Floyd—DB (3 Int./8 Passes Defended)

 

Memphis

Jacob Karam—QB (64.2% comp./14 TD/3 Int.—Formerly at Texas Tech)

Keiwone Malone—WR (44-476)

Alan Cross—TE (23-301/5 TD)

Al Bond—OL

Martin Ifedi—DL (7.5 sacks/11 TFL/4 QB Hurries)

Johnnie Farms—DL (9.5 TFL)

Charles Harris—LB (79 tackles)

Anthony Brown—LB (71 tackles)

Lonnie Ballentine—DB (3 Int./8 Passes Defended)

Tom Hornsey—P (43.4 avg./38.9 net/41.7% inside the 20)

 

Rutgers

Gary Nova—QB (57.0% comp./22 TD/16 Int.)

Brandon Coleman—WR (43-718/ 10 TD)

Betim Bujari, Antwan Lowery, and Kaleb Johnson—OL

Jamil Merrell—DL (40 tackles/10.5 TFL/5 QB Hurries)

Jamal Merrell—LB (83 tackles/8.5 TFL

Lorenzo Waters—DB (68 tackles/6.5 TFL)

 

S M U

Garrett Gilbert—QB (2932 yards/15 TD/15 Int./8 rush TD)

Traylon Shead—RB (Juco star should take pressure off passing game)

Jeremy Johnson—WR (67-679)

Der’Rikk Thompson—WR (41-535)

Randall Joyner—LB (93 tackles/8 Passes Defended)

Jay Scott—DB (76 tackles/11 Passes Defended)

Kenneth Acker—DB (50 tackles/3 Int./15 Passes Defended)

 

South Florida

Andre Davis—WR (46-534/6 TD)

Sean Price—TE (21-209)

Austin Reiter and Quinterrius Eatmon—OL

Aaron Lynch—DL (Former Starter at Notre Dame)

DeDe Lattimore—LB (76 tackles/7.5 TFL)

JaQuez Jenkins—DB (53 tackles)

Mark Joyce—DB (74 tackles)

 

Temple

Chris Coyer—RB (444 rush/4.0 avg)

Jalen Fitzpatrick—WR (30-363)

Tyler Matakevich—LB (101 tackles)

Anthony Robey—DB (41 tackles/6 Passes Defended)

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team	Central Florida Knights
Head Coach	George O’Leary
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Orlando
2012 Record
Conference	7-1 (in CUSA)
Overall	10-4
Grades
Run Offense	58
Pass Offense	73
Run Defense	57
Pass Defense	62
Ratings
PiRate	98.2
Mean	97.5
Bias	99.2
Rankings
PiRate	68
Mean	71
Bias	63
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-3

 

 

Team	Cincinnati Bearcats
Head Coach	Tommy Tuberville
Colors	Red and Black
City	Cincinnati
2012 Record
Conference	5-2 (in Big East)
Overall	10-3
Grades
Run Offense	69
Pass Offense	70
Run Defense	76
Pass Defense	68
Ratings
PiRate	105.5
Mean	105.9
Bias	105.9
Rankings
PiRate	42
Mean	40
Bias	42
Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	10-2

 

 

Team	Connecticut Huskies
Head Coach	Paul Pasqualoni
Colors	Navy and White
City	Storrs, CT
2012 Record
Conference	2-5 (in Big East)
Overall	5-7
Grades
Run Offense	48
Pass Offense	58
Run Defense	68
Pass Defense	60
Ratings
PiRate	93.6
Mean	101.3
Bias	94.2
Rankings
PiRate	84
Mean	57
Bias	81
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	Houston Cougars
Head Coach	Tony Levine
Colors	Scarlet and White
City
2012 Record
Conference	4-4 (in CUSA)
Overall	5-7
Grades
Run Offense	53
Pass Offense	75
Run Defense	45
Pass Defense	42
Ratings
PiRate	89.4
Mean	101.0
Bias	90.9
Rankings
PiRate	95
Mean	58
Bias	90
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	Louisville Cardinals
Head Coach	Charlie Strong
Colors	Cardinal and Black
City
2012 Record
Conference	5-2 (in Big East)
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	70
Pass Offense	94
Run Defense	78
Pass Defense	76
Ratings
PiRate	115.3
Mean	113.4
Bias	116.5
Rankings
PiRate	25
Mean	17
Bias	18
Prediction
Conference	8-0
Overall	12-0

 

 

Team	Memphis Tigers
Head Coach	Justin Fuente
Colors	Royal Blue and Gray
City	Memphis
2012 Record
Conference	1-7 (in CUSA)
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	49
Pass Offense	58
Run Defense	51
Pass Defense	55
Ratings
PiRate	88.7
Mean	98.4
Bias	89.7
Rankings
PiRate	96
Mean	64
Bias	95
Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

 

Team	Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Head Coach	Kyle Flood
Colors	Scarlet and White
City	New Brunswick, NJ
2012 Record
Conference	5-2 (in Big East)
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	65
Pass Offense	64
Run Defense	71
Pass Defense	59
Ratings
PiRate	99.3
Mean	104.2
Bias	100.1
Rankings
PiRate	61
Mean	43
Bias	57
Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

 

Team	S M U Mustangs
Head Coach	June Jones
Colors	Red and Blue
City	Dallas
2012 Record
Conference	5-3 (in CUSA)
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	35
Pass Offense	75
Run Defense	58
Pass Defense	62
Ratings
PiRate	94.1
Mean	101.9
Bias	94.6
Rankings
PiRate	80
Mean	51
Bias	79
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	6-6

 

 

Team	South Florida Bulls
Head Coach	Willie Taggart
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Tampa
2012 Record
Conference	1-6 (in Big East)
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	62
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	65
Pass Defense	46
Ratings
PiRate	94.5
Mean	92.9
Bias	93.5
Rankings
PiRate	79
Mean	91
Bias	83
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	Temple Owls
Head Coach	Matt Rhule
Colors	Cherry and White
City	Philadelphia
2012 Record
Conference	2-5 (in Big East)
Overall	4-7
Grades
Run Offense	52
Pass Offense	64
Run Defense	51
Pass Defense	43
Ratings
PiRate	87.6
Mean	85.1
Bias	85.6
Rankings
PiRate	98
Mean	115
Bias	106
Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	4-8