PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 3

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday,	September 13
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest	Boston College	-6.6	-5.7	-9.3

 

Friday	September 14
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Georgia St.	29.4	28.6	29.4

 

Saturday	September 15
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tennessee	UTEP	31.7	28.9	31.8
Indiana	Ball St.	16.8	13.2	16.6
Maryland	Temple	15.9	14.3	14.8
Florida Int’l.	Massachusetts	-2.0	0.7	-2.7
Toledo	Miami (Fla.)	-17.1	-13.1	-16.6
Army	Hawaii	20.9	19.0	22.6
Penn St.	Kent St.	42.6	38.1	43.4
North Carolina	Central Florida	-9.3	-10.2	-10.2
Charlotte	Old Dominion	-4.0	-6.0	-3.9
Syracuse	Florida St.	0.5	-0.4	-0.3
Iowa St.	Oklahoma	-9.6	-10.3	-10.9
Nebraska	Troy	13.5	10.4	9.3
Kansas	Rutgers	3.3	3.1	3.2
Virginia Tech	East Carolina	33.5	33.8	34.3
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	-6.6	-5.9	-7.0
Notre Dame	Vanderbilt	22.1	17.4	20.3
Virginia	Ohio U	9.9	8.8	7.1
Michigan	SMU	35.4	35.3	37.8
Appalachian St.	Southern Miss.	14.8	13.1	15.6
Oklahoma St.	Boise St.	0.4	-1.0	-0.5
Wisconsin	BYU	25.2	21.6	24.3
North Carolina St.	West Virginia	4.6	4.9	4.8
Minnesota	Miami (O)	20.5	17.7	19.3
Auburn	LSU	13.4	11.8	15.3
Illinois	South Florida	-1.7	-5.1	-3.8
Northern Illinois	Central Michigan	15.6	13.4	15.4
Clemson	Georgia Southern	48.6	44.0	48.9
New Mexico St.	New Mexico	-8.7	-8.0	-8.3
UAB	Tulane	-5.5	-3.2	-4.9
Baylor	Duke	-9.8	-9.6	-9.8
Florida	Colorado St.	28.6	25.0	28.6
Texas Tech	Houston	3.6	0.6	1.0
Kansas St.	UTSA	29.8	23.4	28.0
Arkansas	North Texas	12.0	6.3	9.5
Oregon	San Jose St.	41.4	40.7	43.9
Buffalo	Eastern Michigan	5.3	6.4	5.9
Nevada	Oregon St.	6.5	9.3	8.2
Ole Miss	Alabama	-23.4	-21.5	-24.4
Tulsa	Arkansas St.	7.6	4.6	6.5
South Alabama	Texas St.	13.7	12.6	15.4
Georgia	Middle Tennessee	45.6	39.6	46.0
South Carolina	Marshall	20.5	16.5	18.7
Purdue	Missouri	-7.4	-7.5	-10.0
Northwestern	Akron	25.6	21.8	25.4
Mississippi St.	Louisiana	46.8	41.6	46.4
Texas A&M	UL-Monroe	28.8	27.9	28.3
Louisville	Western Kentucky	23.3	19.7	21.5
Texas	USC	-0.4	-0.2	-0.8
TCU	Ohio St.	-11.5	-9.4	-13.1
Utah	Washington	-12.5	-11.6	-14.1
UCLA	Fresno St.	-6.2	-4.8	-8.3
San Diego St.	Arizona St.	-7.1	-5.0	-5.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Utah St.	Tennessee Tech	38.6
Kentucky	Murray St.	36.1
Connecticut	Rhode Island	10.2
Stanford	UC-Davis	36.9
Navy	Lehigh	29.8
Wyoming	Wofford	17.5
Bowling Green	Eastern Kentucky	13.5
Colorado	New Hampshire	30.3
California	Idaho St.	32.1
Liberty	Norfolk St.	18.5
Florida Atlantic	Bethune-Cookman	38.5
Coastal Carolina	Campbell	17.7
Cincinnati	Alabama A&M	36.0
Western Michigan	Delaware St.	39.7
Iowa	Northern Iowa	32.2
Washington St.	Eastern Wash.	23.7
UNLV	Prairie-View	21.2
Arizona	Southern Utah	24.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	133.8	131.7	135.7	133.7
2	Georgia	131.9	127.6	133.3	130.9
3	Clemson	130.8	127.7	131.5	130.0
4	Ohio St.	128.7	125.9	129.3	128.0
5	Washington	126.7	124.2	129.1	126.6
6	Auburn	123.2	121.8	125.8	123.6
7	Mississippi St.	123.8	120.8	124.4	123.0
8	Michigan	123.1	122.0	124.0	123.0
9	Oklahoma	122.6	121.3	123.2	122.4
10	Michigan St.	122.3	120.0	122.0	121.5
11	Penn St.	121.2	118.0	121.5	120.2
12	Wisconsin	121.2	118.3	120.9	120.1
13	Stanford	120.5	118.1	121.0	119.9
14	Notre Dame	120.7	116.9	119.1	118.9
15	Boston College	118.2	115.2	118.5	117.3
16	Miami	117.3	115.3	116.9	116.5
17	Boise St.	116.4	115.8	117.2	116.5
18	Virginia Tech	116.2	115.7	116.1	116.0
19	Missouri	115.2	113.7	116.8	115.2
20	Oregon	114.5	114.6	115.2	114.8
21	Duke	115.2	112.7	114.7	114.2
22	T C U	114.2	113.6	113.2	113.6
23	Iowa	114.2	111.8	113.6	113.2
24	Oklahoma St.	113.8	111.8	113.7	113.1
25	L S U	112.8	112.9	113.5	113.1
26	N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.7	112.9	113.0
27	Central Florida	112.7	112.5	112.8	112.7
28	Texas A&M	113.0	111.7	113.2	112.6
29	Northwestern	112.9	110.8	112.9	112.2
30	S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.4	111.4
31	U S C	112.1	110.3	111.5	111.3
32	West Virginia	111.7	110.9	111.1	111.2
33	Utah	111.2	109.5	112.0	110.9
34	Georgia Tech	110.6	109.6	110.2	110.2
35	Florida	110.2	108.0	110.3	109.5
36	Iowa State	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
37	California	109.7	106.9	109.3	108.6
38	Florida St.	109.0	108.3	108.6	108.6
39	Kentucky	108.7	107.5	108.4	108.2
40	Washington St.	108.8	107.9	107.7	108.1
41	Arizona St.	108.8	107.3	108.1	108.1
42	Texas	108.7	107.1	107.7	107.8
43	Ole Miss	107.5	107.2	108.3	107.6
44	Fresno St.	107.9	106.3	107.4	107.2
45	Wake Forest	108.7	106.5	106.2	107.1
46	Minnesota	106.6	105.8	106.3	106.2
47	Syracuse	106.5	104.9	105.3	105.6
48	Memphis	104.2	106.3	105.3	105.3
49	Maryland	105.9	104.4	105.1	105.1
50	Kansas St.	106.0	104.3	105.0	105.1
51	Purdue	104.8	103.1	103.7	103.9
52	Houston	103.1	104.3	103.8	103.7
53	Utah St.	102.5	104.0	104.1	103.5
54	Arkansas	104.9	102.0	103.2	103.4
55	Louisville	102.9	102.7	102.3	102.6
56	Texas Tech	103.7	101.8	101.9	102.5
57	Colorado	101.1	102.7	102.4	102.1
58	Vanderbilt	101.5	102.5	101.8	102.0
59	Baylor	102.4	100.2	101.9	101.5
60	Virginia	101.5	101.8	99.9	101.1
61	Pittsburgh	101.0	100.7	100.2	100.7
62	Arizona	101.0	99.3	100.9	100.4
63	N. Carolina	100.4	99.3	99.6	99.8
64	BYU	99.0	99.8	99.6	99.4
65	Florida Atlantic	99.0	99.5	99.7	99.4
66	South Florida	98.0	101.0	98.9	99.3
67	San Diego St.	98.7	99.3	99.9	99.3
68	Nebraska	100.1	98.4	97.5	98.6
69	Toledo	97.2	99.3	97.3	97.9
70	U C L A	98.8	98.5	96.2	97.8
71	Indiana	98.0	97.1	97.5	97.5
72	Wyoming	97.4	97.3	97.2	97.3
73	N. Texas	95.9	98.8	96.7	97.1
74	Tennessee	97.2	97.5	96.5	97.1
75	Army	96.3	96.7	96.5	96.5
76	Buffalo	95.3	97.6	96.5	96.5
77	Navy	95.5	98.3	95.2	96.4
78	Northern Illinois	96.1	96.7	96.1	96.3
79	Marshall	94.4	97.3	95.6	95.8
80	Tulane	95.6	95.7	95.2	95.5
81	Ohio U	94.6	96.0	95.9	95.5
82	Appalachian St.	94.2	95.7	95.5	95.1
83	Kansas	96.1	95.0	94.1	95.1
84	Rutgers	95.8	94.9	93.9	94.9
85	Louisiana Tech	93.4	95.9	94.6	94.6
86	Eastern Michigan	92.4	93.7	93.1	93.1
87	Air Force	93.0	93.1	92.5	92.9
88	Illinois	93.3	92.9	92.1	92.8
89	Tulsa	93.0	91.6	93.6	92.7
90	Temple	92.5	92.6	92.8	92.6
91	Cincinnati	92.0	93.6	92.0	92.5
92	Nevada	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3
93	Akron	90.3	91.9	90.5	90.9
94	Western Michigan	89.9	91.5	90.7	90.7
95	Troy	89.5	91.0	91.1	90.5
96	U N L V	89.5	91.1	90.0	90.2
97	Middle Tennessee	89.3	91.0	90.2	90.2
98	Miami (O)	89.1	91.1	90.0	90.1
99	SMU	90.7	89.7	89.2	89.9
100	Massachusetts	88.2	90.0	89.6	89.3
101	Arkansas St.	87.9	89.5	89.6	89.0
102	U A B	87.6	90.0	87.8	88.5
103	UL-Monroe	87.1	86.7	87.9	87.3
104	New Mexico	86.4	88.1	86.3	86.9
105	Oregon St.	87.8	85.2	86.1	86.4
106	Georgia Southern	85.3	86.7	85.6	85.9
107	East Carolina	85.7	84.9	84.8	85.1
108	Colo. State	84.6	85.9	84.7	85.1
109	Florida Int’l.	83.2	87.7	83.8	84.9
110	Central Michigan	83.5	86.3	83.7	84.5
111	Ball St.	83.2	85.9	82.9	84.0
112	Bowling Green	83.7	83.7	83.9	83.8
113	Southern Miss.	82.3	85.5	82.8	83.6
114	W. Kentucky	81.6	85.0	82.7	83.1
115	Old Dominion	81.0	85.2	81.0	82.4
116	South Alabama	81.3	83.4	82.3	82.3
117	Kent St.	81.6	82.9	81.0	81.8
118	U T S A	79.2	83.9	80.0	81.1
119	Louisiana	79.5	81.7	80.5	80.6
120	Liberty	81.0	79.3	81.2	80.5
121	Hawaii	79.9	82.2	78.4	80.2
122	Coastal Carolina	78.5	81.5	79.1	79.7
123	Georgia St.	77.9	80.7	78.9	79.2
124	Connecticut	78.5	78.7	77.2	78.1
125	N. Mexico St.	75.7	78.1	76.0	76.6
126	San Jose St.	76.1	76.9	74.3	75.8
127	Charlotte	74.5	76.8	74.6	75.3
128	Texas State	70.7	73.8	69.9	71.5
129	Rice	70.4	73.4	69.1	71.0
130	U T E P	68.5	71.6	67.8	69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	112.7	112.5	112.8	112.7	1-0	2-0
South Florida	98.0	101.0	98.9	99.3	0-0	2-0
Temple	92.5	92.6	92.8	92.6	0-0	0-2
Cincinnati	92.0	93.6	92.0	92.5	0-0	2-0
East Carolina	85.7	84.9	84.8	85.1	0-0	1-1
Connecticut	78.5	78.7	77.2	78.1	0-1	0-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.2	106.3	105.3	105.3	0-1	1-1
Houston	103.1	104.3	103.8	103.7	0-0	2-0
Navy	95.5	98.3	95.2	96.4	1-0	1-1
Tulane	95.6	95.7	95.2	95.5	0-0	1-1
Tulsa	93.0	91.6	93.6	92.7	0-0	1-1
SMU	90.7	89.7	89.2	89.9	0-0	0-2
AAC Averages	95.1	95.7	95.1	95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	130.8	127.7	131.5	130.0	0-0	2-0
Boston College	118.2	115.2	118.5	117.3	0-0	2-0
N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.7	112.9	113.0	0-0	2-0
Florida St.	109.0	108.3	108.6	108.6	0-1	1-1
Wake Forest	108.7	106.5	106.2	107.1	0-0	2-0
Syracuse	106.5	104.9	105.3	105.6	0-0	2-0
Louisville	102.9	102.7	102.3	102.6	0-0	1-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	117.3	115.3	116.9	116.5	0-0	1-1
Virginia Tech	116.2	115.7	116.1	116.0	1-0	2-0
Duke	115.2	112.7	114.7	114.2	0-0	2-0
Georgia Tech	110.6	109.6	110.2	110.2	0-0	1-1
Virginia	101.5	101.8	99.9	101.1	0-0	1-1
Pittsburgh	101.0	100.7	100.2	100.7	0-0	1-1
N. Carolina	100.4	99.3	99.6	99.8	0-0	0-2
ACC Averages	110.8	109.5	110.2	110.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.6	121.3	123.2	122.4	0-0	2-0
T C U	114.2	113.6	113.2	113.6	0-0	2-0
Oklahoma St.	113.8	111.8	113.7	113.1	0-0	2-0
West Virginia	111.7	110.9	111.1	111.2	0-0	2-0
Iowa State	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1	0-0	0-1
Texas	108.7	107.1	107.7	107.8	0-0	1-1
Kansas St.	106.0	104.3	105.0	105.1	0-0	1-1
Texas Tech	103.7	101.8	101.9	102.5	0-0	1-1
Baylor	102.4	100.2	101.9	101.5	0-0	2-0
Kansas	96.1	95.0	94.1	95.1	0-0	1-1
Big 12 Averages	108.9	107.4	108.1	108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	125.9	129.3	128.0	1-0	2-0
Michigan	123.1	122.0	124.0	123.0	0-0	1-1
Michigan St.	122.3	120.0	122.0	121.5	0-0	1-1
Penn St.	121.2	118.0	121.5	120.2	0-0	2-0
Maryland	105.9	104.4	105.1	105.1	0-0	2-0
Indiana	98.0	97.1	97.5	97.5	0-0	2-0
Rutgers	95.8	94.9	93.9	94.9	0-1	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	121.2	118.3	120.9	120.1	0-0	2-0
Iowa	114.2	111.8	113.6	113.2	0-0	2-0
Northwestern	112.9	110.8	112.9	112.2	1-0	1-1
Minnesota	106.6	105.8	106.3	106.2	0-0	2-0
Purdue	104.8	103.1	103.7	103.9	0-1	0-2
Nebraska	100.1	98.4	97.5	98.6	0-0	0-1
Illinois	93.3	92.9	92.1	92.8	0-0	2-0
Big Ten Averages	110.6	108.8	110.0	109.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	99.0	99.5	99.7	99.4	0-0	1-1
Marshall	94.4	97.3	95.6	95.8	0-0	2-0
Middle Tennessee	89.3	91.0	90.2	90.2	0-0	1-1
Florida Int’l.	83.2	87.7	83.8	84.9	1-0	1-1
W. Kentucky	81.6	85.0	82.7	83.1	0-0	0-2
Old Dominion	81.0	85.2	81.0	82.4	0-1	0-2
Charlotte	74.5	76.8	74.6	75.3	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	95.9	98.8	96.7	97.1	0-0	2-0
Louisiana Tech	93.4	95.9	94.6	94.6	0-0	2-0
U A B	87.6	90.0	87.8	88.5	0-0	1-1
Southern Miss.	82.3	85.5	82.8	83.6	0-0	1-1
U T S A	79.2	83.9	80.0	81.1	0-0	0-2
Rice	70.4	73.4	69.1	71.0	0-0	1-2
U T E P	68.5	71.6	67.8	69.3	0-0	0-2
CUSA Averages	84.3	87.3	84.8	85.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.7	116.9	119.1	118.9	x	2-0
BYU	99.0	99.8	99.6	99.4	x	1-1
Army	96.3	96.7	96.5	96.5	x	1-1
Massachusetts	88.2	90.0	89.6	89.3	x	1-2
Liberty	81.0	79.3	81.2	80.5	x	1-1
N. Mexico St.	75.7	78.1	76.0	76.6	x	0-3
Ind. Averages	93.5	93.5	93.7	93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	95.3	97.6	96.5	96.5	0-0	2-0
Ohio U	94.6	96.0	95.9	95.5	0-0	1-0
Akron	90.3	91.9	90.5	90.9	0-0	1-0
Miami (O)	89.1	91.1	90.0	90.1	0-0	0-2
Bowling Green	83.7	83.7	83.9	83.8	0-0	0-2
Kent St.	81.6	82.9	81.0	81.8	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.2	99.3	97.3	97.9	0-0	1-0
Northern Illinois	96.1	96.7	96.1	96.3	0-0	0-2
Eastern Michigan	92.4	93.7	93.1	93.1	0-0	2-0
Western Michigan	89.9	91.5	90.7	90.7	0-0	0-2
Central Michigan	83.5	86.3	83.7	84.5	0-0	0-2
Ball St.	83.2	85.9	82.9	84.0	0-0	1-1
MAC Averages	89.8	91.4	90.1	90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	116.4	115.8	117.2	116.5	0-0	2-0
Utah St.	102.5	104.0	104.1	103.5	0-0	1-1
Wyoming	97.4	97.3	97.2	97.3	0-0	1-2
Air Force	93.0	93.1	92.5	92.9	0-0	1-1
New Mexico	86.4	88.1	86.3	86.9	0-0	1-1
Colo. State	84.6	85.9	84.7	85.1	0-1	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	107.9	106.3	107.4	107.2	0-0	1-1
San Diego St.	98.7	99.3	99.9	99.3	0-0	1-1
Nevada	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	0-0	1-1
U N L V	89.5	91.1	90.0	90.2	0-0	1-1
Hawaii	79.9	82.2	78.4	80.2	1-0	3-0
San Jose St.	76.1	76.9	74.3	75.8	0-0	0-2
MWC Averages	93.6	94.3	93.6	93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	126.7	124.2	129.1	126.6	0-0	1-1
Stanford	120.5	118.1	121.0	119.9	1-0	2-0
Oregon	114.5	114.6	115.2	114.8	0-0	2-0
California	109.7	106.9	109.3	108.6	0-0	2-0
Washington St.	108.8	107.9	107.7	108.1	0-0	2-0
Oregon St.	87.8	85.2	86.1	86.4	0-0	1-1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
U S C	112.1	110.3	111.5	111.3	0-1	1-1
Utah	111.2	109.5	112.0	110.9	0-0	2-0
Arizona St.	108.8	107.3	108.1	108.1	0-0	2-0
Colorado	101.1	102.7	102.4	102.1	0-0	2-0
Arizona	101.0	99.3	100.9	100.4	0-0	0-2
U C L A	98.8	98.5	96.2	97.8	0-0	0-2
Pac-12 Averages	108.4	107.0	108.3	107.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.9	127.6	133.3	130.9	1-0	2-0
Missouri	115.2	113.7	116.8	115.2	0-0	2-0
S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.4	111.4	0-1	1-1
Florida	110.2	108.0	110.3	109.5	0-1	1-1
Kentucky	108.7	107.5	108.4	108.2	1-0	2-0
Vanderbilt	101.5	102.5	101.8	102.0	0-0	2-0
Tennessee	97.2	97.5	96.5	97.1	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	133.8	131.7	135.7	133.7	0-0	2-0
Auburn	123.2	121.8	125.8	123.6	0-0	2-0
Mississippi St.	123.8	120.8	124.4	123.0	0-0	2-0
L S U	112.8	112.9	113.5	113.1	0-0	2-0
Texas A&M	113.0	111.7	113.2	112.6	0-0	1-1
Ole Miss	107.5	107.2	108.3	107.6	0-0	2-0
Arkansas	104.9	102.0	103.2	103.4	0-0	1-1
SEC Averages	114.0	112.5	114.5	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	94.2	95.7	95.5	95.1	0-0	1-1
Troy	89.5	91.0	91.1	90.5	0-0	1-1
Georgia Southern	85.3	86.7	85.6	85.9	0-0	2-0
Coastal Carolina	78.5	81.5	79.1	79.7	0-0	1-1
Georgia St.	77.9	80.7	78.9	79.2	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.9	89.5	89.6	89.0	0-0	1-1
UL-Monroe	87.1	86.7	87.9	87.3	0-0	2-0
South Alabama	81.3	83.4	82.3	82.3	0-0	0-2
Louisiana	79.5	81.7	80.5	80.6	0-0	1-0
Texas State	70.7	73.8	69.9	71.5	0-0	1-1
Sun Belt Averages	83.2	85.1	84.0	84.1

 

Conference Ratings

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.0	112.5	114.5	113.7
2	ACC	110.8	109.5	110.2	110.2
3	BTEN	110.6	108.8	110.0	109.8
4	B12	108.9	107.4	108.1	108.1
5	P-12	108.4	107.0	108.3	107.9
6	AAC	95.1	95.7	95.1	95.3
7	MWC	93.6	94.3	93.6	93.8
8	IND	93.5	93.5	93.7	93.5
9	MAC	89.8	91.4	90.1	90.4
10	CUSA	84.3	87.3	84.8	85.4
11	SUN	83.2	85.1	84.0	84.1

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Southern Miss.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Colorado
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Tulsa	Western Michigan
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Houston	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	UNLV
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	[Virginia]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Navy	[California]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Louisiana
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Florida Int’l.	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[BYU]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Louisville	Indiana
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Army]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Georgia Tech	[UAB]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	[Utah]	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	North Carolina St.	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Boston College	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Virginia Tech
Military	AAC	ACC	Cincinnati	Syracuse
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Washington St.
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	[Georgia Southern]	Kentucky
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	USC
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Florida
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Boise St.	TCU
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Stanford
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Auburn
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton	FBS	PLAYOFF	Alabama	Ohio St.
Orange	FBS	PLAYOFF	Clemson	Georgia
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018 Mountain West Conference Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.

Some of our Group of 5 Conference won-loss predictions were figured before the beginning of August preseason practices. Thus, it could be that a player or players on some teams have already suffered season-ending or multiple game injuries or have left their teams, and these won-loss predictions no longer accurately reflect our ratings. We hope that by the time we preview the Power 5 conferences, we will know who is not going to be available (players and head coaches).

For a few seasons, it looked like there would be a changing of the guard in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State went from the top of the league to the bottom, which brought former California coach Jeff Tedford on board. Quickly, the Bulldogs returned to the top of the West Division, topping the previous king in San Diego State.
In the Mountain Division, Boise State fell back a notch for a couple seasons, but the Broncos appear to be on the precipice of returning to the same dominance that former head coach Chris Petersen guided the school.
One thing that never changes in the MWC is the wide variation of playing styles. If you go on a caravan to see all 12 teams play during the season, you will see three types of option-style football with UNLV, Air Force, and New Mexico; you will see a standard power-style offense like Alabama and Georgia with Colorado State and San Diego State; you will get a nice sampling of the West Coast offense from Fresno State and Wyoming; you will see the wide-open Air Raid offense with Nevada; and then you will see an all over the map offense in most other places.
While the two historic powers resume their spots as tops in the league, this is a really fun conference from top to bottom. The MWC could very well provide more bowl eligible teams this year than they have bowl agreements, and whoever gets shipped to an alternate site is sure to provide an exciting game for that bowl.

Boise State and Fresno State hooked up in back-to-back weeks last year, with FSU winning the regular season finale 28-17. A week later Boise got revenge by winning the MWC Championship Game 17-14. The win allowed the Broncos to head to sin city, where they topped Oregon 38-28 to finish 11-3. With most of their very good defense returning this year, Boise must be considered a top contender to nab the NY6 Bowl bid. The Broncos return top quarterback in the league Brett Rypien as well as 1,000-yard rusher Alexander Mattison, and BSU might run the table if they can score 30 points every week. A tough opener at Troy in the Alabama heat and another tough game at Oklahoma State may keep the Broncos from going 13-0, and at 12-1, they may have a difficult time finishing ahead of the AAC champion.

Behind the Broncos, Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State, and Utah State should compete for second place in the division and bowl eligibility. Wyoming returns a lot of quality talent from a team that went 8-5 a year ago. If not for the probability that a freshman will be under center, the Cowboys might be a serious threat to Boise’s potential run this year. Coach Craig Bohl’s Cowboys will succeed because their defense might be the best in the league with a top-flight defensive line returning intact and a linebacking corps that takes a backseat to no other team in the league.

Utah State will have significant experience returning this year from a team that beat the weaker teams on their 2017 schedule and didn’t compete all that well against the better teams. Expect the Aggies to be tougher against the better half of its schedule this year, and USU should make a run at eight or nine wins. The opener at Michigan State could be rough though, and the Aggies close the season on the road against Colorado State and Boise State.

Mike Bobo faces somewhat of a rebuilding job at Colorado State this year. The Rams enjoyed a decent year as they christened their new on-campus stadium. An overtime loss to Boise was all that kept CSU from playing in the conference championship game, but with massive losses on both sides of the ball this year, Bobo will be lucky to get his squad bowl eligible.

Air Force typically plays a lot of seniors, so in most years, it will appear as if they face a rebuilding project, when they have seasoned veterans ready to assume leadership roles. The Falcons’ unique offense always causes trouble for opposing defensive coaches and personnel, as most defensive linemen today are built for pass rushing and stopping the run in their gap or gaps. Having to basically read and react to the quarterback’s reads means these players might be a tad slow making the right choice. Air Force has more than usual defensive experience returning, and Troy Calhoun has won big with about the same amount of returning experience in the past. The key is keeping quarterback Arion Worthman healthy. The Falcons’ schedule gives them a chance to play Boise State in Colorado Springs with first place on the line.

New Mexico is at a crossroads with Coach Bob Davie. The shotgun spread option continues to give the Lobos one of the nation’s top running games, but UNM didn’t score a lot of points last year after the offense clicked in 2016. Don’t expect much improvement from the offense this year, as untested players will start at quarterback and most of the offensive line. The Lobos don’t get to practice against high-quality passers, and it hurts their pass defense. This could be the end of the line for Coach Davie if his team finishes in the basement a second consecutive season.

The West Division race should be a two-team fight between Fresno State and San Diego State. SDSU was the overwhelming pick to win last year, but FSU surprised the nation by beating the Aztecs in San Diego. Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs combined solid running with excellent short passing, and the defense frequently held opponents to three and out following long Bulldog drives. When a team can score a touchdown on a 10-play drive that consumes more than six minutes and then get their defense off the field three plays later, it is not only demoralizing for the opponent, the ensuing fatigue caused by the short rest can hurt a defense for an entire half. If quarterback Marcus McMaryion improves as much this season as he did last year, he could be looking at a high draft pick selection next Spring.

San Diego State went 2-0 in the Pac-12 last year, but they didn’t win the West Division of their own league. The Aztecs topped Arizona State in Tempe, which signaled the beginning of the end for Todd Graham. More impressively, they knocked off Stanford a week later. SDSU was 6-0 and in the catbird’s seat for the NY6 Bowl bid until back-to-back losses to the eventual two division champions ended all hopes. After holding Air Force’s and New Mexico’s option running attacks in check during the regular season, the Aztecs had no answer for Army’s potent offense in the Armed Forces Bowl. The future of this program is up in the air, as they will be seeking a new stadium on campus. There are no guarantees, and their lease runs out at SDCCU Stadium, which lost the Chargers last year. There will be an issue on the November ballot whether or not to fund an on-campus stadium that can be used for multiple purposes. There even was a remote option that old Balboa Stadium, home to the Chargers in the 1960’s could be remodeled and built into a new football venue for the Aztecs.

Nevada and UNLV should compete for third place in the division plus a bowl bid. Both teams have strong offenses but suspect defenses. Neither is strong enough to go 7-1 in the league, but on any given Saturday both could pull off a big upset that decides who will win the division title.

Nevada punishes opponents with their Air Raid offense led by quarterback Ty Gangi, who is able to pass the ball for more than 300 yards per game this year.  UNLV followed the lead of dual threat QB Armani Rogers and the running acumen of tailback Lexington Thomas, and both return this year behind a capable offensive line. The Rebels couldn’t stop the run last year, which kept UNLV at 6-6 when they could have been 9-3.

Hawaii and San Jose State will compete for fifth in the division. The Rainbow Warriors beat the Spartans last year, but they have the biggest rebuilding job in the conference–on both sides of the ball. SJSU finished last in the league on offense and defense and has a long way to go just to become mediocre. One reason why Hawaii might edge out SJSU is the schedule. Hawaii plays FCS member Duquesne the week before this game, while San Jose has to play at Oregon.

Here is how the MWC media voted in the preseason poll.

Mountain West Conference
Team	Votes
Mountain Division	1st Place	Total
1. Boise State	22	132
2. Wyoming	0	95
3. Colorado State	0	82
4. Utah State	0	78
5. Air Force	0	52
6. New Mexico	0	23
West Division	1st Place	Total
1. Fresno State	16	126
2. San Diego State	6	116
3. UNLV	0	78
4. Nevada	0	72
5. Hawaii	0	45
6. San Jose State	0	25

The PiRate Ratings basically confirm the media’s preseason opinions, differing only in the middle of the pack.

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	0-0	0-0	110.2	109.3	110.9	110.1
Wyoming	0-0	0-0	98.5	98.6	98.8	98.6
Utah St.	0-0	0-0	96.8	98.3	98.1	97.7
Air Force	0-0	0-0	91.7	91.7	90.9	91.4
Colo. State	0-0	0-0	85.6	87.1	86.1	86.3
New Mexico	0-0	0-0	85.7	87.6	85.3	86.2
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	0-0	0-0	107.0	105.4	106.7	106.4
San Diego St.	0-0	0-0	98.7	99.5	99.8	99.3
Nevada	0-0	0-0	92.4	92.5	92.6	92.5
U N L V	0-0	0-0	89.1	90.8	89.6	89.8
San Jose St.	0-0	0-0	76.6	77.4	74.8	76.3
Hawaii	0-0	0-0	74.4	76.4	72.2	74.3
MWC Averages			92.2	92.9	92.2	92.4

New Coaches

There are no new coaches in the Mountain West this year.  There are a couple of places where coaches need to produce successful seasons this year to keep their jobs next year.  Tony Sanchez needs to get UNLV into a bowl and win at least seven games.  Nick Rolovich needs to show some sign of progress after Hawaii sunk from a bowl team to a 3-9 team.  Matt Wells cannot afford a losing record at Utah State with the talent he has this year.  And, Bob Davie could be forced into retirement if New Mexico plays as weak on offense this year as they did last year.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

Note: We know that our won-loss records do not factor in any upsets.  There predicted records use the average PiRate Rating plus a set home field advantage to pick the winners.  All FBS vs. FCS games are automatically given to the FBS team.  Obviously, the season is not cut and dry like this, but we concentrate our efforts mostly on the next week of scheduled games and do not look forward past one week with our ratings.

Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall
Boise State	8-0	12-1 *
Utah State	6-2	8-4
Wyoming	6-2	8-4
Colorado State	3-5	4-8
Air Force	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	0-8	3-9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall
Fresno State	7-1	10-3
San Diego State	6-2	8-4
UNLV	5-3	7-5
Nevada	3-5	5-7
San Jose St.	1-7	2-10
Hawaii	0-8	2-11

Bowl Tie-ins
The MWC sends its champion to the Las Vegas Bowl, if it does not qualify for the Group of 5 Conference’s automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl bid. The remaining bowl bids have no set pecking order. These are the bowls tie-ins for 2018.

1. Las Vegas Bowl in Las Vegas, NV
Arizona Bowl in Tucson, AZ
Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu, HI
Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID
New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, NM

The Mountain West Conference has an alternate bowl agreement to send a team to the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix, AZ.

Coming Tomorrow–The FBS Independents

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 12-14, 2017

Ouch!  We took it on the chin and everywhere else last week, as all four of our parlays went down in flames.  It wasn’t even close, as we were 0-4 quite quickly.

About all we accomplished in the last two weeks is that we now have two of our followers experimenting with their own formulas.  One is using IF bets, while the other is going with single games.  Neither of them accomplished what they hoped so far, but both are mathematically sound.  The issue is that there is a bit more parity in football this season, and the teams that you and we just know will win for sure go off at Money Line odds of -1000 or worse.  If you are totally sure that Ohio State will beat Nebraska, Mississippi State will beat BYU, Alabama will beat Arkansas, Oklahoma State will beat Baylor, Georgia will beat Missouri, South Florida will beat Cincinnati, Clemson will beat Syracuse, and Iowa State will beat Kansas, you can put down a wager on this parlay and feel about 85% confident you will win this wager.  And guess what you will receive for every $1 you wager on this “sure thing”?  If you bet $1 and win, you will receive $1.35 in winnings, which includes your original buck invested.  Yes, it would be a 35% return on your investment, and even Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman would accept a 35% ROI over 3 days in the investment.  But, they would still hold off on this one, because the Margin of Safety would not be there, and the chances of losing all of the investment would outweigh the chance to make a 35% profit in 3 days.

This week our little ship of buccaneers and queens of the sea were not in agreement on many supposed sure-thing winners that would allow us to construct parlays with odds of +120 or better.  We only came up with two parlays, one of which forced us to go four-deep in games.  We are in the hole a bit too much to risk additional funds on games we do not all believe can win.

We almost made a decision to double our investment on this week’s games, but the Captain warned us that doubling down almost always ballooned into something out of control.  If you lose $100 this week, bet $200 next week; if you lose again, then bet $400 the next week; then $800, $1,600, $3,200, etc.  If you get on a really cold streak, soon you are betting your house and car, and your family, and your kidney, etc.  So, we stick with equal unit wagers on all games.

REMEMBER THIS: We are playing with imaginary currency.  So, we actually could double down, because $200 of fake dough is equal to $100 of fake dough.  We do know that a large number of you reading this use the real stuff, so we are going to approach this weekly feature as if it was real.  Also, there are more than one of you that have told us that you modify our selections and our Ratings’ Spreads and actually do quite well with the data.  One of you has even told us about how you have been ultra successful, but we did not press this issue in order for you to keep your method private.  Any method that really works quickly doesn’t work once the world discovers the secret, because the odds then change, making the system worthless.

Here are our picks for this week.  We hope they are a tad better than worthless, but we have our doubts.

#1@ +170
Must Win	Must Lose
UL-Lafayette	Texas St.
South Carolina	Tennessee
San Diego St.	Boise St.

 

#2 @ +137
Must Win	Must Lose
Miami (O)	Kent St.
Temple	Connecticut
Tulane	Florida Int’l.
Houston	Tulsa

 

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Semifinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—The Final Four

 

You are looking live at the College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.  Last week in the quarterfinals, Auburn beat Arkansas, Wisconsin edged Stanford, Oregon trounced Boise State, and Ohio State bested TCU.

 

For those of you that did not read our features from the previous two weeks, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began two weeks ago with four games being played.  The quarterfinals ran last Monday; today, the semifinals run, and next Monday, January 3, the Championship Game, called “The Simper Bowl,” will run.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games, and Auburn, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Ohio State advanced to today’s semifinal games. 

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.  They were extremely close today.  In the Orange Bowl, 88 sims were decided by five points or less.  In the Rose Bowl, all 100 sims were decided by single digits, and 17 went to overtime!

 

 

Orange Bowl

#1 Auburn vs. #5 Wisconsin

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 40.6  Auburn 38.7

Wisconsin wins: 53

Auburn wins: 47

 

Outlier A: Wisconsin 48  Auburn 36

Outlier B: Auburn 42  Wisconsin 29

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-248  pass-177

Average Auburn Yards: rush-208  pass-211

 

Rose Bowl

#2 Oregon vs. #6 Ohio State

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.9  Oregon 24.8

Ohio State wins: 50

Oregon wins: 50

Outlier A: Ohio State 45  Oregon 37 3ot

Outlier B: Oregon 30  Ohio State 21

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-183  pass-179

Average Oregon Yards: rush-186  pass-180

 

 

Simper Bowl IV is set.  Congratulations to the Big Ten Conference for landing both championship game participants.  Wisconsin will play Ohio State for all the marbles, and you can see the results next Monday in play-by-play format.

 

The format for the championship game will be different.  We will simulate this game 100 times to discover the winner of the game to determine the winner.  Then, we will simulate it again as many times as needed for the winner to come up with another win.  The first simulation past number 100 that shows our 100-game simulation as the winner will be the official Simper Bowl results.  Since we will give you the results in a play-by-play format, if you do not peak at the bottom, you can follow the action as if you are seeing it unfold live, sort of.

 

For example, let’s say we were simulating 2009 Alabama against 2008 Florida.  Let’s say that Alabama wins the 100 simulations by a margin of 52 to 48.  We will then simulate this game again and again until the result shows Alabama winning and take that first simulation from #101 on that shows Alabama winning as the game result.

 

So, come by this website next Monday afternoon, January 3, 2011, for Simper Bowl IV.

 

Happy New Years to all, and please be responsible Friday night.  Don’t miss 2011 because you were ignorant on the last day of 2010.

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Quarterfinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—Quarterfinal Round

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.

 

For those of you that did not read our feature from last week, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began last Monday with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run today; the semifinals run next Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game will run on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games. 

 

Here are the matchups for today’s quarterfinal round.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.

 

 

Sugar Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

 

WINNER: AUBURN

 

Average Score: Auburn 44.6  Arkansas 23.9

Auburn wins: 93

Arkansas wins: 7

Outlier A: Auburn 59  Arkansas 17

Outlier B: Arkansas 49  Auburn 42 2OT

Average Auburn Yards: rush-231  pass-280

Average Arkansas Yards: rush-108  pass-271

 

Cotton Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.3  Stanford 36.1

Wisconsin wins: 59

Stanford: 41

Outlier A: Wisconsin 51  Stanford 30

Outlier B: Stanford 40  Wisconsin 27

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-251  pass-208

Average Stanford Yards: rush-106  pass-311

 

Fiesta Bowl

#10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

 

WINNER: OREGON

 

Average Score: Oregon 50.6  Boise State 31.7

Oregon wins: 88

Boise State wins: 12

Outlier A: Oregon 56  Boise State 16

Outlier B: Boise State 48  Oregon 35

Average Oregon Yards: rush-307  pass-277

Average Boise State Yards: rush-133  pass-299

 

Capital One Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 19.7  T C U 14.4

Ohio State wins: 60

T C U: 40

Outlier A: Ohio State 28  T C U 6

Outlier B: T C U 20  Ohio State 7

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-147  pass-155

Average T C U Yards: rush-97  pass-146

 

The semifinal round is set.  In the Orange Bowl, top-seeded Auburn takes on number five seed Wisconsin.  In the Rose Bowl, number two seed Oregon faces number six seed Ohio State.  Have a Merry Christmas, and we will see you next Monday with the new results.

PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part One

We will be posting three bowl previews this year.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and our 100 times computer simulation for each game.

Today, we cover the bowls before Christmas Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from December 26 through New Year’s Day. Finally, we will preview the bowls after January 1.  Three bowls kick off Saturday, and four more will be played next week.  

Saturday, December 18

New Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque, NM

1 PM EST on ESPN

Brigham Young Cougars 6-6  vs.  Texas-El Paso Miners 6-6

Vegas: BYU by 11 ½

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: BYU by 18.8

Mean: BYU by 12.3

Bias: BYU by 14.8

100 Sims: BYU 89  UTEP 11

Avg. Sim Score: BYU 33.7  UTEP 20.2

Outlier A: BYU 45  UTEP 17

Outlier B: UTEP 29  BYU 23

 

Humanitarian Bowl

Boise, ID

4:30 PM EST on ESPN

Fresno State Bulldogs 8-4  vs.  Northern Illinois Huskies 10-3

Vegas: Northern Illinois by 1

Totals: 59

PiRate: Northern Illinois by 4.4

Mean: Northern Illinois by 4.1

Bias: Northern Illinois by 9.6

100 Sims: Northern Illinois 58  Fresno State 42

Avg. Sim Score: Northern Illinois 34.6  Fresno State 30.1

Outlier A: Northern Illinois 42  Fresno State 23

Outlier B: Fresno State 37  Northern Illinois 27

 

New Orleans Bowl

New Orleans, LA

8:00 PM EST on ESPN

Troy Trojans 7-5  vs. Ohio U Bobcats 8-4

Vegas: Troy by 2 ½

Totals: 58

PiRate: Ohio U by 3.6

Mean: Ohio U by 2.1

Bias: Ohio U by 16.2

100 Sims: Ohio U 61  Troy 39

Avg. Sim Score: Ohio U 35.1  Troy 29.8

Outlier A: Ohio U 41  Troy 17

Outlier B: Troy 38  Ohio U 27

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady Bowl

St. Petersburg, FL

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 8-4  vs. Louisville Cardinals 6-6

Vegas: Louisville by 3

Totals: 57

PiRate: Louisville by 5.7

Mean: Louisville by 1.2

Bias: Louisville by 10.5

100 Sims: Louisville 60  Southern Miss 40

Avg. Sim Score: Louisville 31.1  Southern Miss 27.9

Outlier A: Louisville 35  Southern Miss 13

Outlier B: Southern Miss 40  Louisville 21

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl

Las Vegas, NV

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

Utah Utes 10-2  vs. Boise State Broncos 11-1

Vegas: Boise State by 17

Totals: 61

PiRate: Boise State by 17.7

Mean: Boise State by 14.0

Bias: Boise State by 16.6

100 Sims: Boise State 76  Utah 24

Avg. Sim Score: Boise State 40.3  Utah 24.1

Outlier A: Boise State 51  Utah 20

Outlier B: Utah 38  Boise State 31 (two different results gave Utah a 7-point win)

 

Thursday, December 23

Poinsettia Bowl

San Diego, CA

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

San Diego State Aztecs 8-4  vs. Navy Midshipmen 9-3

Vegas: San Diego State by 4 ½

Totals: 60

PiRate: San Diego State by 5.6

Mean: San Diego State by 0.8

Bias: San Diego State by 4.3

100 Sims: San Diego State 55  Navy 45

Avg. Sim Score: San Diego State 32.8  Navy 30.7

Outlier A: San Diego State 44  Navy 24

Outlier B: Navy 38  San Diego State 26

 

Friday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl

Honolulu, HI

7:00 PM EST on ESPN

Hawaii Warriors 10-3  vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 9-3

Vegas: Hawaii by 10

Totals: 73 ½

PiRate: Hawaii by 14.6

Mean: Hawaii by 6.2

Bias: Hawaii by 9.9

100 Sims: Hawaii 58  Tulsa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Hawaii 46.4  Tulsa 40.2

Outlier A: Hawaii 59  Tulsa 35

Outlier B: Tulsa 47  Hawaii 38

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

Can Boise State defend their Simper Bowl title from last season?  Will Auburn and Oregon make it to the title game?  Is there a dark horse team that can emerge like Butler in basketball?

 

Let’s get started with the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for four and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in “Simper Bowl III.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State, as the teams played to a 10-10 tie in regulation before Boise won in six overtimes 39-37.

 

Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls, 38-24 over Oklahoma in Simper Bowl I and 27-23 over Florida in Simper Bowl II.

 

Our simulated playoffs have 12 teams.  We take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and award them automatic bids.  We then take all other conference champions that finish in the top 12 of the BCS and award them automatic bids.  We then select the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and award at-large bids until we have our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams are then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds receive first round byes as a reward.  We also limit to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we need 11 games.  So, we use the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round begins today with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run next Monday; the semifinals on Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we are changing our format.  We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinals

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Arkansas or Michigan State

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Wisconsin or Connecticut

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Oklahoma or Boise State

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Ohio State or Virginia Tech

 

Semifinals

Orange Bowl: Winners of the Sugar and Cotton Bowls

Rose Bowl: Winners of the Fiesta and Capital One Bowls

 

Simper Bowl IV—The National Championship Game

Orange Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner

 

Are you ready?  Here are the results of the first round games.

 

Outback Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

WINNER: ARKANSAS

 

Average Score: Arkansas 30.4  Michigan State 27.6

Arkansas wins: 59

Michigan State wins: 41

Outlier A: Arkansas 44  Michigan State 17

Outlier B: Michigan State 37  Arkansas 20

Arkansas Avg Yards: rush-113  pass-274

Michigan State Avg Yards: rush-144  pass-228

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.7  Connecticut 22.6

Wisconsin wins: 94

Connecticut wins: 6

Outlier A: Wisconsin 61  Connecticut 13

Outlier B: Connecticut 33  Wisconsin 28

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-246  pass-234

Average Connecticut Yards: rush-153  pass-159

 

Insight Bowl

#7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

 

WINNER: BOISE STATE

 

Average Score: Boise State 37.3  Oklahoma 29.2

Boise State wins: 66

Oklahoma wins: 34

Outlier A: Boise State 41  Oklahoma 20

Outlier B: Oklahoma 34  Boise State 26

Average Boise State Yards: rush-157  pass-269

Average Oklahoma Yards: rush-128  pass-249

 

Alamo Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.0  Virginia Tech 18.7

Ohio State wins: 68

Virginia Tech: 32

Outlier A: Ohio State 37  Virginia Tech 10

Outlier B: Virginia Tech 24  Ohio State 17

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-151  pass-177

Average Virginia Tech Yards: rush-111  pass-149

 

 

The quarterfinal round is now set and will be played next Monday, December 20.  Here is the schedule.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	132.5	12	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Auburn	131.0	13	0
5	Boise State	128.8	11	1
6	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
7	Oklahoma	127.7	11	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	124.2	11	2
12	Florida State	119.8	9	4
13	South Carolina	119.4	9	4
14	Nebraska	118.9	10	3
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	117.0	9	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Nevada	115.7	12	1
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Florida	115.3	7	5
23	Missouri	115.2	10	2
24t	Arizona	115.2	7	5
24t	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-4	119.8
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	11-2	124.2
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	117.0
Pittsburgh	5-2	7-5	110.7
Connecticut	5-2	8-4	108.0
South Florida	3-4	7-5	106.9
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-5	4-8	100.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-6	4-8	89.5

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Illinois	4-4	6-6	104.4
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-3	118.9
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	11-2	127.7
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	10-3	102.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-6	92.7
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Miami (O)	7-1	9-4	90.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-3	104.1
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-11	80.4
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	9-0	12-0	132.5
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-5	7-5	115.2
Southern Cal	5-4	8-5	112.0
Arizona St.	4-5	6-6	111.0
Oregon St.	4-5	5-7	109.6
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	5-4	6-6	107.1
U C L A	2-7	4-8	101.8
Washington State	1-8	2-10	94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-4	119.4
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	13-0	131.0
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-2	6-6	87.0
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	6-2	7-5	85.8
Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	82.8
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1
Florida Atlantic	3-5	4-8	73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-1	11-1	128.8
Nevada	7-1	12-1	115.9
Hawaii	7-1	10-3	108.9
Fresno State	5-3	8-4	98.2
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7	93.0
Idaho	3-5	6-7	88.1
Utah State	2-6	4-8	88.0
San Jose State	0-8	1-12	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Navy	Army (Philadelphia)	14.4	31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army  (Philadelphia)	31-23	27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	131.9	11	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Boise State	130.6	10	1
5	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
6	Auburn	127.5	12	0
7	Oklahoma	127.1	10	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	123.1	10	2
12	South Carolina	122.9	9	3
13	Florida State	120.9	9	3
14	Nebraska	119.5	10	2
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	116.8	8	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Arizona	116.3	7	4
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Nevada	115.3	11	1
23	Florida	115.3	7	5
24	Missouri	115.2	10	2
25	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-3	120.9
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	10-2	123.1
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	4-2	8-3	116.8
Pittsburgh	4-2	6-5	108.6
Connecticut	4-2	7-4	107.6
South Florida	3-3	7-4	107.3
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-4	4-7	102.8
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-5	4-7	89.7

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-2	119.5
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	10-2	127.1
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	9-3	103.2
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-5	92.4
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Miami (O)	7-1	8-4	87.8
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-2	106.9
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-10	82.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	8-0	11-0	131.9
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-4	7-4	116.3
Southern Cal	4-4	7-5	111.0
Oregon St.	4-4	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	3-5	5-6	109.9
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	4-4	5-6	106.9
U C L A	2-6	4-7	102.8
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-3	122.9
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	12-0	127.5
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-1	6-5	88.4
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	5-2	6-5	82.8
Middle Tennessee	4-3	5-6	81.4
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Florida Atlantic	3-4	4-7	76.7
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-1	10-1	130.6
Nevada	6-1	11-1	115.3
Hawaii	7-1	9-3	106.8
Fresno State	5-3	7-4	97.5
Louisiana Tech	4-3	5-6	93.6
Idaho	2-5	5-7	89.3
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-7	1-11	77.3
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	8.9	31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	4.1	31-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)   (Detroit)	19.1	42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Southern Cal	U C L A	6.2	34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	2.7	20-17
Oregon	OREGON STATE	18.7	45-26
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	10.0	31-21
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	30.1	42-12
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	2.8	24-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	10.0	34-24
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	3.1	30-27
BOISE STATE	Utah State	47.4	61-14
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	18.2	35-17
IDAHO	San Jose State	14.5	38-23
HAWAII	U n l v	28.3	49-21
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	4.6	35-30
Virginia Tech	Florida State (Charlotte)	2.2	25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	13.8	35-21
Oklahoma	Nebraska (Dallas)	7.6	21-13

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	31-21	27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Illinois	FRESNO STATE	34-31	34-27
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)  (Detroit)	35-24	41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Southern Cal	U C L A	31-21	30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	27-24	27-23
Oregon	OREGON STATE	49-26	51-19
Washington	WASHINGTON STATE	35-27	35-20
WEST VIRGINIA	Rutgers	34-14	34-14
Pittsburgh	CINCINNATI	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA INT’L	Middle Tennessee	34-22	28-26
Troy	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	31-24	34-28
BOISE STATE	Utah State	56-20	59-17
Nevada	LOUISIANA TECH	37-17	35-31
IDAHO	San Jose State	42-24	45-28
HAWAII	U n l v	49-20	48-14
Auburn	South Carolina (Atlanta)	38-24	34-24
Virginia Tech	Florida State  (Charlotte)	26-25	27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	34-26	35-30
Oklahoma	Nebraska  (Dallas)	21-16	22-20

Bowl Projections Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	B Y U 6-6	WAC (#3?)	Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Miami (O) 8-5	WAC #(1) or 2	Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	Connecticut 7-5	C-USA #4-6	Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO	MWC #1	Utah 10-2	Pac 10 #5	[Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	S. D. State 8-4	Navy or WAC	NAVY 9-3
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	HAWAII 10-3	C-USA #2-6	Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Louisville 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports	Big East #2	Notre Dame 7-5	ACC #3	N. C. State 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 7-5
Military	ACC #8	Boston Coll. 7-5	C-USA #6	E C U 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Penn State 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Oklahoma St. 10-2	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	S M U 7-6	MWC #3-5/Army	Army 6-6
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 7-5	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Maryland 8-4
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	N. Carolina 8-4	Big East #3-4	S. Florida 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	Miami (FL) 7-5	Pac 10 #4	[Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6	C-USA #1	Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	Miss. State 8-4	ACC #2	Florida State 9-4
Ticket City	Big 10 #6-7	Northwestern 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 7-5
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan St. 11-1	SEC #2	L S U 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Illinois 7-5	SEC #6	Florida 7-5
Rose	BCS Pac10	T C U 12-0	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 11-2	BCS At-Large	Stanford 11-1
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	West Va. 9-3
Sugar	BCS SEC	Ohio State 11-1	BCS At-Large	Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 7-5	MAC #1 or 2	Toledo 8-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Nebraska 10-3	SEC #3-6 W	Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass	Big East #5	Pittsburgh 7-5	SEC #8 or 9	Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Temple 8-4]	WAC #1	Nevada 11-1
Championship Game	*** BCS #1 ***	Oregon 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 23-27, 2010

The Winning Streak Comes To An End

It had to happen.  We knew we could not go through the entire season with one winning week after another.  Our luck ran dry this weekend.  Our picks went 2-2-1 against the spread, which in our terms, is a losing week, since you lay 10-11 odds when picking straight sides.

 

Perhaps we should not have deviated from our sweetheart teaser picks, but we liked the five games we selected.  Let’s quickly reveal our picks so we can move on and talk college football

 

1. Tennessee -9 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

Okay, if you are one of our regular subscribers to our handicapping service, maybe you did enjoy a winning week.  For, we told you that we felt that the Vols had a 99% chance of covering at -9.  If you decided to make this your only pick, then you went 1-0.

 

Vanderbilt has run out of gas, while Tennessee is on their annual November roll.  The final score was only 24-10, and we had to sweat out a late Vandy run with backup quarterback Jared Funk.

 

2. Ohio State -3 vs. Iowa

Push

This game surprised us a bit.  We felt as if the Buckeyes were ready to pull off a two touchdown win, and when the offense struggled early, we were concerned.  Ohio State is not as strong as they were supposed to be, and they should not have gained ground on Wisconsin in the BCS standings. 

 

3. Texas A&M + 2 ½ vs. Nebraska

WON

Please don’t let Bo Pelini hear this.  We told our subscribers that we had a sneaky suspicion that Nebraska would see a lot of questionable officiating calls go against them in this game, just like it happened against Texas.  The national media has to put on a good face, but we could care less about stepping on toes of the Big 12 Conference.  We warned our fans on Thursday that we suspected this would happen.  The game was considered a tossup, so we felt A&M would win by a touchdown.  It was only by a field goal, but we won any way.

 

4. Cleveland Browns + 1 ½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lost

The Browns’ short flirtation with respectability has gone back into hibernation.  We blew this one royally, thinking the boys from Lake Erie would win by 7-10 points.

 

5. San Francisco 49ers + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Lost

Tampa Bay has proven they are playoff worthy.  San Francisco’s offensive woes continue, and yet they are still in contention in the worst division in the history of NFL football.

 

A Look At The FBS Conference Races and Bowls

There are 35 bowls this year.  Thus, 70 teams need to be bowl eligible.  With two weeks to go in the season, only 64 teams are bowl eligible.  It is a sure thing that at least one or two others will gain bowl eligibility due to the schedule.  What happens if the magic number falls short of 70?  Will the NCAA allow 5-7 teams into the bowls?  Who would want to see a 5-7 and 6-6 team face off in a loser bowl?

 

A 12-team playoff, using the top 11 bowls would leave 24 bowls for the rest of the NCAA.  This would not be a problem.  The bowl that might end up with a 5-7 team would end up with a 7-5 or 8-4 team under a 12-team playoff.

 

The PiRate Ratings have conducted simulated NCAA football playoffs the past two seasons, and we will do so again after the end of the regular season.

 

Let’s look at each conference as it stands today.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech has sewn up the Coastal Division Championship.  They will face either North Carolina State or Florida State.  If N.C. State beats Maryland, they win the division title.  If Maryland wins, Florida State goes to the ACC title game.

 

Nine teams are already bowl eligible, and the conference has eight bowl tie-ins.  Expect all nine teams to land in bowls.

 

 

Big East

No team in this league belongs in a BCS bowl game.  TCU and Boise State are 21 points better than the best team in the Big East.  The cold hard fact is that the winner of this conference will be the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl picks—the Fiesta Bowl. 

 

Pittsburgh has a one game lead over West Virginia and Connecticut.  They would lose a three-way tiebreaker if the three finished 5-2.

 

Connecticut, South Florida, and Syracuse are bowl eligible.  Louisville is one win away, while Cincinnati and Rutgers are still in contention at 4-6.  We think UL will get that sixth win this week against Rutgers, while Cincinnati falls short.  Throw in Notre Dame, which will finish no worse than 6-6, and there will be enough teams to satisfy the league’s allotment.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Three teams are in contention for the Rose Bowl with one week to go.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tied at 6-1.  If they all win this week, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings will get the Rose Bowl bid.  Wisconsin holds a marginal lead over Ohio State.  The Badgers face Northwestern, while the Buckeyes host Michigan.  It will be a close vote if both win.  Michigan State wins a tiebreaker with Wisconsin, while Wisconsin wins a tiebreaker with Ohio State.  If Ohio State and Michigan State finish tied at 7-1, the Buckeyes will be the higher ranked team in the BCS and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

Eight teams are bowl eligible, and there is a decent chance that a second team will get a BCS at-large bid.  That would make nine bowl openings for eight teams, and the need for an at-large representative for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

 

 

 

Big 12

The Big 12 is out of the national championship picture this year.  Nebraska will win the North Division with a win over Colorado or a Missouri loss to Kansas.  Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma to wrap up the South Division, but the Sooners could easily win this game.  If Texas A&M beats Texas, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, it will take five steps into the conference’s tiebreaker rules to determine the representative for the Big 12 Championship Game.  Oklahoma would hold the leg up over the other two.

 

Colorado and Texas need wins to gain bowl eligibility, but it is our opinion that both will lose their finales and miss out.  That will leave eight bowl eligible teams for eight bowls.

 

 

 

Conference USA

In the East, Central Florida is as close to in the league title game as a team can be and not already have it clinched.  UCF only needs to beat hapless Memphis to secure the division flag.  It is a certainty.

 

In the West, SMU controls its own destiny.  However, the Mustangs play at East Carolina this week.  We believe the Pirates will win.  That means Tulsa would capture the flag with a win over Southern Miss.  We will give the Golden Hurricane the edge.

 

Houston needs a win at Texas Tech to gain bowl eligibility, but the Cougars are wounded without their top two quarterbacks.  No bowl for Houston this year.

 

 

 

Independents

Navy is bowl eligible, and the Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  Army is also bowl eligible, and they will get an at-large selection somewhere.  Notre Dame is bowl eligible, and they will either receive one of the Big East bowl bids or an at-large bid.

 

 

Mid-American

As usual, there are always more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids for the MAC.  Ohio, Temple, and Miami (O) from the East and Northern Illinois and Toledo from the West are bowl eligible.  Western Michigan will become bowl eligible with a win at Bowling Green.  That will leave six teams available for three bids.  Expect five of the six to go bowling.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

TCU’s blowout win over New Mexico this week will give the Horned Frogs their second consecutive undefeated regular season finish and at-large selection to a BCS Bowl.  There is a small chance that they could play for the National Championship.  Their BCS ranking will drop by playing the 1-10 Lobos, while Boise State finished on the road against a ranked team.

 

Five teams are bowl eligible, and all five will go to bowls.  That will leave one bowl spot open for an at-large invitee—the New Mexico Bowl.

 

 

 

Pac-10

This is the messy conference.  To start out, Southern Cal is ineligible for a bowl.  Throw in the chance that Stanford will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  Now, top it off with the fact that Arizona is the only other bowl eligible team at this point.  California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, but we believe only one of these five will do it.  That means this league could fall three bids short.

 

 

 

Southeastern

“As the Cam Turns” is the top-rated soap opera in the South during November sweeps.  It just may turn south on Auburn this week.  We think Alabama is going to end the Tigers’ championship hopes this week.  We cannot see any scenario where Auburn would jump Boise State and TCU after losing this late in the season.  It is no gimme that the Tigers can beat South Carolina twice in one season.

 

LSU can grab an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl with a win at Arkansas, but we believe the Razorbacks will put an end to those aspirations.

 

Georgia and Tennessee need victories this week to gain bowl eligibility.  We think both will be victorious.  That will leave 10 bowl eligible teams for nine bowls and an at-large bid.

 

 

 

 

Sunbelt

Somebody has to win this league.  With two weeks left in the season, one for UL-Monroe, no team has earned bowl eligibility.  The schedule guarantees that at least one team will become bowl eligible, and we think at least two will pick up a sixth win.  For a change, Troy may not win the conference championship.

 

 

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has a tough finale at Nevada this week, but we do not believe the boys from Reno have a strong enough defense to slow down the Broncos.  Boise State is our top-rated team, and we feel like they would be a field goal choice over Oregon in a national title game.  A win at Nevada should allow the Broncos to jump over TCU in the BCS standings, and if Auburn loses to Alabama, it should put BSU into the number two slot.

 

Louisiana Tech and Idaho still have remote chances at bowl eligibility, but we think both will fall one game short.  With BSU getting a BCS Bowl bid, the WAC will fall one team short in its bowl obligations. 

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 22, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	Boise State	134.6	10	0
2	T C U	132.9	11	0
3	Oregon	132.1	10	0
4	Stanford	129.7	10	1
5	Alabama	127.5	9	2
6	Ohio State	127.1	10	1
7	Oklahoma	127.0	9	2
8	Auburn	126.2	11	0
9	Arkansas	124.4	9	2
10	Virginia Tech	122.8	9	2
11	Wisconsin	122.7	10	1
12	South Carolina	121.1	8	3
13	Texas A&M	118.8	8	3
14	Nebraska	118.8	9	2
15	Florida State	118.2	8	3
16	L S U	118.0	10	1
17t	Florida	118.0	7	4
17t	Miami (Fla)	118.0	7	4
19	Iowa	117.3	7	4
20	Oklahoma State	116.4	10	1
21	Arizona	116.1	7	3
22	North Carolina	115.6	6	5
23	Georgia	115.5	5	6
24	Missouri	114.9	9	2
25	Mississippi State	114.8	7	4
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	8-3	118.2
Clemson	4-4	6-5	112.8
North Carolina State	5-2	8-3	111.4
Maryland	4-3	7-4	104.7
Boston College	4-4	6-5	103.9
Wake Forest	1-7	2-9	89.9
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	7-0	9-2	122.8
Miami-FL	5-3	7-4	118.0
North Carolina	3-4	6-5	115.6
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-5	108.7
Virginia	1-6	4-7	95.3
Duke	1-6	3-8	95.1

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	3-2	7-3	114.6
Pittsburgh	4-1	6-4	110.8
Connecticut	3-2	6-4	106.4
South Florida	3-3	6-4	104.5
Cincinnati	2-3	4-6	104.0
Louisville	2-4	5-6	102.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-4	101.1
Rutgers	1-4	4-6	91.1

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	6-1	10-1	127.1
Wisconsin	6-1	10-1	122.7
Iowa	4-3	7-4	117.3
Michigan State	6-1	10-1	110.2
Michigan	3-4	7-4	106.5
Penn State	4-3	7-4	105.1
Illinois	4-4	6-5	105.1
Northwestern	3-4	7-4	95.4
Minnesota	1-6	2-9	94.0
Purdue	2-5	4-7	92.5
Indiana	0-7	4-7	88.7

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	5-2	9-2	118.8
Missouri	5-2	9-2	114.9
Kansas State	3-5	6-5	100.7
Colorado	2-5	5-6	100.3
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-6	3-8	88.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	5-2	9-2	127.0
Texas A&M	5-2	8-3	118.8
Oklahoma State	6-1	10-1	116.4
Texas	2-5	5-6	106.0
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	6-5	104.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	6-1	8-3	104.8
Southern Mississippi	5-2	8-3	98.6
East Carolina	5-2	6-5	90.2
U A B	3-4	4-7	86.8
Marshall	3-4	4-7	83.6
Memphis	0-7	1-10	69.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	5-2	8-3	98.1
Houston	4-4	5-6	96.5
S M U	5-2	6-5	92.2
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	2-5	3-8	84.0
Tulane	2-5	4-7	74.8

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		6-5	107.0
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-2	8-3	95.2
Ohio U	6-1	8-3	91.7
Miami (O)	6-1	7-4	85.2
Kent St.	3-4	4-7	80.6
Bowling Green	1-6	2-9	77.1
Buffalo	1-6	2-9	71.5
Akron	0-7	0-11	66.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	7-0	9-2	103.9
Toledo	6-1	7-4	88.5
Western Michigan	4-3	5-6	86.7
Central Michigan	2-5	3-8	84.5
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-5	2-9	69.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	7-0	11-0	132.9
Utah	6-1	9-2	111.7
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-2	6-5	104.2
S. D. State	4-3	7-4	102.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-5	2-9	84.5
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-6	1-10	75.4

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	7-0	10-0	132.1
Stanford	7-1	10-1	129.7
Arizona	4-3	7-3	116.1
Southern Cal	4-4	7-4	112.9
Oregon St.	4-3	5-5	112.3
California	3-5	5-6	110.2
Arizona St.	2-5	4-6	109.2
Washington	3-4	4-6	105.1
U C L A	2-5	4-6	103.5
Washington State	1-7	2-9	94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	8-3	121.1
Florida	4-4	7-4	118.0
Georgia	3-5	5-6	115.5
Kentucky	2-5	6-5	106.9
Tennessee	2-5	5-6	105.0
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-9	88.9
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Alabama	5-2	9-2	127.5
Auburn	7-0	11-0	126.2
Arkansas	5-2	9-2	124.4
L S U	6-1	10-1	118.0
Mississippi State	3-4	7-4	114.8
Ole Miss	1-6	4-7	100.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	5-1	5-5	88.1
Arkansas State	4-3	4-7	84.2
Troy	4-2	5-5	82.2
Middle Tennessee	3-3	4-6	79.9
North Texas	3-5	3-8	79.0
Louisiana-Monroe	4-3	5-6	78.9
Florida Atlantic	3-3	4-6	78.2
U. of Louisiana	2-5	2-9	76.8
Western Kentucky	2-5	2-9	75.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	6-0	10-0	134.6
Nevada	5-1	10-1	111.3
Hawaii	6-1	8-3	106.2
Fresno State	4-3	6-4	97.7
Louisiana Tech	3-3	4-6	94.0
Idaho	2-4	5-6	89.1
Utah State	2-5	4-7	86.2
San Jose State	0-6	1-10	76.9
New Mexico State	1-6	2-9	72.5

 

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Temple	MIAMI (O)	7.0	28-21
Thursday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Texas A&M	TEXAS	10.3	24-14
Friday, November 26
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Louisville	RUTGERS	8.6	28-19
Western Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	6.6	27-20
West Virginia	PITTSBURGH	1.3	21-20
ALABAMA	Auburn	3.8	31-27
Buffalo	AKRON	2.6	24-21
TOLEDO	Central Michigan	7.0	38-31
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	31.5	45-13
EAST CAROLINA	S m u	1.0	35-34
Ohio U	KENT STATE	8.6	30-21
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	8.7	26-17
NEBRASKA	Colorado	21.5	28-6
TULSA	Southern Miss.	2.5	38-35
OREGON	Arizona	19.5	44-24
Boise State	NEVADA	26.3	46-20
Saturday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
ARKANSAS	L s u	9.4	35-26
STANFORD	Oregon State	20.4	37-17
CONNECTICUT	Cincinnati	5.4	26-21
FLORIDA STATE	Florida	2.7	27-24
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	9.3	33-24
North Carolina St.	MARYLAND	3.7	24-20
Iowa	MINNESOTA	20.3	37-17
Mississippi State	OLE MISS	11.4	28-17
North Carolina	DUKE	18.5	45-26
SYRACUSE	Boston College	0.2	17-17 to ot
OHIO STATE	Michigan	23.6	44-20
Oklahoma	OKLAHOMA STATE	8.1	34-26
Michigan State	PENN STATE	2.1	30-28
South Carolina	CLEMSON	5.8	34-28
VANDERBILT	Wake Forest	2.0	26-24
RICE	U a b	0.2	34-34 to ot
Kansas State	NORTH TEXAS	18.7	44-25
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	30.0	37-7
WISCONSIN	Northwestern	30.3	51-21
FLORIDA INT’L	Arkansas State	6.4	34-28
MIAMI (FL)	South Florida	16.5	38-21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Atlantic	4.2	31-27
UL-MONROE	UL-Lafayette	4.6	26-21
PURDUE	Indiana	6.8	38-31
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	1.1	35-34
TEXAS TECH	Houston	10.7	45-34
TROY	Western Kentucky	9.5	38-28
Central Florida	MEMPHIS	33.2	40-7
MARSHALL	Tulane	11.8	35-23
Missouri	Kansas (Kansas City)	26.4	40-14
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO STATE	30.7	45-14
UTAH	B y u	10.0	34-24
T c u	NEW MEXICO	55.0	55-0
SAN DIEGO STATE	U n l v	20.9	42-21
Louisiana Tech	SAN JOSE STATE	14.1	31-17
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	8.9	33-24
FRESNO STATE	Idaho	11.6	38-26

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Tuesday, November 23
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Temple	MIAMI (O)	27-20	27-16
Thursday, November 25
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Texas A&M	TEXAS	23-13	20-14
Friday, November 26
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Louisville	RUTGERS	24-21	28-17
Western Michigan	BOWLING GREEN	35-28	38-16
PITTSBURGH	West Virginia	17-14	17-14
ALABAMA	Auburn	31-27	31-28
Buffalo	AKRON	23-20	23-20
TOLEDO	Central Michigan	38-30	41-21
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	45-19	49-17
EAST CAROLINA	S m u	36-34	34-38
Ohio U	KENT STATE	35-23	33-14
ARIZONA STATE	U c l a	31-20	27-20
NEBRASKA	Colorado	28-9	23-17
TULSA	Southern Miss.	41-37	44-34
OREGON	Arizona	42-23	41-23
Boise State	NEVADA	42-30	60-31
Saturday, November 27
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
ARKANSAS	L s u	31-27	31-20
STANFORD	Oregon State	37-20	38-19
CONNECTICUT	Cincinnati	26-21	24-16
FLORIDA STATE	Florida	30-27	30-27
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	31-20	28-24
North Carolina St.	MARYLAND	24-20	27-17
Iowa	MINNESOTA	30-13	34-10
Mississippi State	OLE MISS	33-25	34-24
North Carolina	DUKE	35-24	35-24
SYRACUSE	Boston College	16-14	19-17
OHIO STATE	Michigan	37-17	38-24
OKLAHOMA STATE	Oklahoma	30-27	27-31
Michigan State	PENN STATE	30-27	20-23
South Carolina	CLEMSON	35-30	36-20
VANDERBILT	Wake Forest	23-17	20-23
RICE	U a b	35-35 to ot	38-36
Kansas State	NORTH TEXAS	41-21	45-24
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	35-9	31-14
WISCONSIN	Northwestern	45-24	45-24
FLORIDA INT’L	Arkansas State	34-27	34-27
MIAMI (FL)	South Florida	30-17	30-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Florida Atlantic	27-26	24-23
UL-MONROE	UL-Lafayette	35-27	35-21
PURDUE	Indiana	38-31	37-28
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	34-31	35-30
TEXAS TECH	Houston	41-32	41-28
TROY	Western Kentucky	40-28	35-31
Central Florida	MEMPHIS	42-14	47-10
MARSHALL	Tulane	35-28	32-31
Missouri	Kansas (Kansas City)	41-17	31-13
Hawaii	NEW MEXICO STATE	45-17	44-17
UTAH	B y u	37-24	28-24
T c u	NEW MEXICO	50-7	56-0
SAN DIEGO STATE	U n l v	44-24	44-20
Louisiana Tech	SAN JOSE STATE	27-16	28-16
SOUTHERN CAL	Notre Dame	34-27	28-25
FRESNO STATE	Idaho	38-30	38-26

 

 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC #4 or (5)	[Temple 9-3]	WAC (#3?)	[Army 6-6]
Humanitarian	MAC #3	Toledo 9-3	WAC #(1) or 2	Fresno St. 7-5
New Orleans	Sunbelt #(1) or 2	Fla. Int’l 7-5	C-USA #5	S M U 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	Connecticut 7-5	C-USA #4-6	East Carolina 7-5
MAACO	MWC #1	Utah 10-2	Pac 10 #5	[Kentucky 6-6]
Poinsettia	MWC #2	San Diego St. 8-4	Navy or WAC	NAVY 9-3
Hawaii	Hawaii/WAC #3/4	HAWAII 10-3	C-USA #2-6	Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8/SBC	[Boston Coll. 6-6]	MAC #1-2	N. Illinois 11-2
Independence	ACC #7	Clemson 6-6	MWC #3	B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports	Big East #2	West Va. 8-4	ACC #3	Miami 8-4
Insight	Big 12 #4	Missouri 10-2	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan 7-5
Military	ACC #8	Georgia Tech 6-6	C-USA #6	U T E P 6-6
Texas	Big 12 #6-7	Texas Tech 7-5	Big 10 #6-7	Northwestern 7-5
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Nebraska 10-3	Pac 10 #2	Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces	C-USA #3-4	Southern Miss 8-4	MWC #3-5/Army	Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe	Big East #3-4	Syracuse 8-4	Big 12 #6-7	Baylor 7-5
Music City	SEC # 7	Tennessee 6-6	ACC #6	Maryland 7-5
Holiday	Big 12 #5	Texas A&M 9-3	Pac 10 #3	California 6-6
Meineke Car Care	ACC #4-5	N. Carolina 7-5	Big East #3-4	S. Florida 7-5
Sun	ACC #4 or 5	N.C. State 9-4	Pac 10 #4	[Notre Dame 6-6]
Liberty	SEC #8 or 9	Florida 7-5	C-USA #1	Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A	SEC #3-6	L S U 10-2	ACC #2	Florida St. 9-3
Ticket City	Big 10 #6-7	Illinois 7-5	Big 12 #8/CUSA	Kansas St. 7-5
Outback	SEC #3-6 E	S. Carolina 9-4	Big 10 #3	Iowa 8-4
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Mich. St. 11-1	SEC #2	Alabama 10-2
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Penn State 7-5	SEC #6	Miss. State 8-4
Rose	BCS Pac10	Stanford 11-1	BCS Big 10	Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma 11-2	BCS At-Large	Pittsburgh 8-4
Orange	BCS ACC	Va. Tech 11-2	BCS At-Large	T C U 12-0
Sugar	BCS SEC	Auburn 12-1	BCS At-Large	Ohio State 11-1
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	Troy 6-6	MAC #1 or 2	Ohio U 9-4
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Okla. St. 10-2	SEC #3-6 W	Arkansas 10-2
BBVA Compass	Big East #5	Louisville 6-6	SEC #8 or 9	Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 10 #6	[Miami (O) 7-5]	WAC #1	Nevada 11-2
Nat’l Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Oregon 12-0	*** BCS #2 ***	Boise State 12-0

 

All CAPS and Italics—Team has already accepted bid to this bowl

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large entries.