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Each team has its own specific play-calling chart for you to play solitaire without another live opponent. You can even have the solitaire system call the plays on both sides and watch the game like you are at the 50- yard line in a luxury box.
This week begins the long hours of numbers’ crunching to update the college PiRate Ratings. 2024 presents a multitude of obstacles, as mass conference realignment requires complete changing of formats and new algorithmic equations, and then, there is the ever increasing Transfer Portal, where every player basically can become a free agent and negotiate his “contract” with the high bidder. Significant players will be transferring to their 2024 schedules all the way into August, so this means the updated ratings must be updated again and again in the final weeks before their release.
This year also brings the college football fan a 12-team playoff, meaning teams with 9-3 records might have a shot to get into the playoffs. Most likely more than half of the dozen will be members of the expanded Big Ten and Southeastern Conferences. One team, the likely #12 seed will be the top Group of 5 participant, and said team will likely lose on the road by double digit points to the #5 seed in the first round.
The release of the preseason college PiRate Ratings will appear here around August 15. The release of the preseason NFL PiRate Ratings will appear around August 30.
This year, college PiRate Ratings will update on Sunday afternoons following each week of the season, except for after Week 1, when LSU will play USC in Las Vegas on Sunday, and Boston College visits Florida State on Labor Day. Ratings will publish on Tuesday after Week 1. NFL Ratings will update early Tuesday mornings, about 2 hours after the conclusion of Monday Night Football.
Once again, there will be a Week 0 in college football this year, with four college games taking place on August 24, including Florida State playing Georgia Tech at Aviva Stadium on the Emerald Isle, Dublin, Ireland.
It wasn’t the most accurate of seasons for the PiRate Bracketnomics’ system, but it did pick the national champion again. We’re not sure of the exact count, but someone else says this is our 15th correct pick of the national champion in 23 years of putting out a mathematical prediction.
In the end, Connecticut won by getting several more cheap baskets than Purdue. The Boilermakers could not force turnovers on UConn, and the Huskies applied enough defensive pressure on Purdue’s guards to force the Boilermakers to become one dimensional.
The PiRates now prepare to go to sea for the next 17 weeks, as we expect to encounter some swift currents and crashing waves, preparing for an evolution of college football not seen in more than 100 years. We have to recalculate and reprogram all the conferences that will have massive realignment. Hopefully, we will have the college football ratings ready to debut the second or third week of August.
| Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
| Connecticut | Purdue | 1.5 |
| Stat | UConn | Purdue |
| O-RTG | 127.2 | 125.7 |
| D-RTG | 91.6 | 94.4 |
| SOS | 61.9 | 63.5 |
| 3-Pt | 36.0 | 40.6 |
| O-Reb | 36.5 | 37.8 |
| 2PT%D | 43.0 | 47.4 |
| FTR | 32.3 | 41.6 |
| R+T Rate | 12.2 | 13.1 |
| Old R+T | 22.2 | 23.5 |
| Marg | 18.1 | 14.1 |
| Win Strk | 14/12/7 | 9/7/7 |
| Pre25 | Y | Y |
| Champ | Y | Y |
| Coach Exp | 5 (NC) | 15 |
| 3 Upper | N | N |
| F/C 20-12 | Y | Y |
| DBLFIG | 5.0 | 4 |
| OReb | 36.5 | 37.8 |
| OStl | 9.5 | 8.0 |
| OTurn | 12.5 | 14.0 |
| DReb | 26.7 | 23.9 |
| DStl | 8.3 | 9.9 |
| DTurn | 14.0 | 12.1 |
| Reb Marg | 8.8 | 11.7 |
| Stl/G | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| D Stl | 5.5 | 6.8 |
| TO Marg | 0.9 | -1.9 |
Explanation of the following stats.
PER: Player Efficiency Rating is a per-minute rating that sums up all a player’s positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player’s performance.”
TS%: True Shooting Percentage is the player’s shooting efficiency, calculated by: (pts * 0.5)/(FGA + (.475 * FTA))
FTr: Free Throw Rate is the number of FT attempts compared to FG attempts
ORB%: Offensive Rebound Percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds while the player was on the floor
DRB%: Defensive Rebound Percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds while the player was on the floor
Ast%: Assist percentage is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on the floor
STL%: Steal percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while he was on the floor
BLK%: Block percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent two-point FG attempts blocked by the player while he was on the floor
TO%: Turnover percentage is the number of turnovers per 100 plays
O+/- & D+/- : Offensive and Defensive Plus/Minus is an estimate of the offensive/defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league average player translated to an average team
| Team | UConn | Purdue |
| Stat | Klingan | Edey |
| PER | 35.4 | 39.2 |
| TS% | 63.7 | 66.0 |
| FTr | 48.8 | 82.9 |
| ORB% | 14.2 | 18.2 |
| DRB% | 23.8 | 25.6 |
| Ast% | 13.8 | 14.8 |
| Stl% | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Blk% | 11.8 | 7.0 |
| TO% | 7.4 | 10.8 |
| O+/- | 9.0 | 12.9 |
| D+/- | 6.2 | 3.7 |
| Team | UConn | Purdue |
| Stat | Karaban | Kaufman-Renn |
| PER | 20.4 | 17.1 |
| TS% | 62.7 | 54.3 |
| FTr | 16.1 | 47.8 |
| ORB% | 5.6 | 11.5 |
| DRB% | 12.5 | 15.7 |
| Ast% | 7.7 | 10.2 |
| Stl% | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Blk% | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| TO% | 7.5 | 11.0 |
| O+/- | 6.1 | 2.6 |
| D+/- | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Team | UConn | Purdue |
| Stat | Castle | Loyer |
| PER | 19.1 | 13.8 |
| TS% | 55.3 | 58.1 |
| FTr | 38.3 | 33.9 |
| ORB% | 7.8 | 1.1 |
| DRB% | 12.1 | 7.3 |
| Ast% | 18.5 | 12.1 |
| Stl% | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Blk% | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| TO% | 12.8 | 11.3 |
| O+/- | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| D+/- | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Team | UConn | Purdue |
| Stat | Spencer | Jones |
| PER | 22.9 | 14.5 |
| TS% | 64.5 | 54.6 |
| FTr | 22.9 | 24.9 |
| ORB% | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| DRB% | 12.3 | 8.5 |
| Ast% | 19.0 | 12.1 |
| Stl% | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Blk% | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| TO% | 8.2 | 12.1 |
| O+/- | 7.3 | 2.5 |
| D+/- | 4.4 | 3.3 |
| Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
| Connecticut | Alabama | 5.7 |
| Purdue | North Carolina St. | 11.0 |
After a fantastic first weekend of Bracketnomics success, the second weekend was a bummer. We at least have our national champion pick still alive, as Connecticut has looked like a UCLA team during the Jabbar/Walton days, not facing any opposition to get to the Final Four.
Unfortunately, the only other thing we picked correctly, and we hate that it came true, was our three-month long worry that Houston’s style of intensive play leads to a high incidence of injuries, and just one injury to a key player could kill their chances of getting to the Final Four. It did, and they didn’t. This makes three key injuries in three years for Kelvin Sampson’s club, and it is definitely not coincidental.
We sort of mentioned that the NCAA Selection Committee had given Purdue its best chance to make the Final Four, and it was probably now or never for Matt Painter to take the Boilermakers to the promised land, because no teams in its regional had the necessary skills to attack Purdue’s one Achilles’ heel. To beat Purdue, a team must be able to pressure their backcourt and force the Boilermakers to make turnovers, especially steals that lead to fast break baskets, where Zach Edey cannot recover in time to get into defensive positioning. Is there a team remaining that can exploit this weakness, or is this year the year the Keady Curse is broken, like 2004 for the Boston Red Sox?
Let’s take a look at both Semifinal games as the Bracketnomics’ data shows. Actual PiRate Spreads for these games will publish later today.
| Stat | Purdue | NC State |
| O-RTG | 126.4 | 115.1 |
| D-RTG | 95.3 | 99.0 |
| SOS | 63.6 | 59.7 |
| 3-Pt | 40.6 | 34.7 |
| O-Reb | 38.0 | 28.4 |
| 2PT%D | 47.5 | 49.2 |
| FTR | 42.2 | 32.6 |
| R+T Rate | 13.4 | 2.3 |
| Old R+T | 23.5 | 5.9 |
| Marg | 14.1 | 4.3 |
| Win Strk | 9/7/7 | 9 |
| Pre25 | Y | N |
| Champ | Y | Y |
| Coach Exp | 15 | 4 |
| 3 Upper | N | Y |
| F/C 20-12 | Y | N |
| DBLFIG | 4 | 4 |
| OReb | 38.0 | 28.4 |
| OStl | 8.0 | 10.4 |
| OTurn | 13.8 | 12.0 |
| DReb | 24.0 | 29.0 |
| DStl | 9.8 | 7.4 |
| DTurn | 12.0 | 15.2 |
| Reb Marg | 11.7 | -0.6 |
| Stl/G | 5.5 | 7.2 |
| D Stl | 6.8 | 5.1 |
| TO Marg | -1.9 | 2.6 |
Verdict: The only chance North Carolina State has of pulling off a monumental upset is to capitalize to the maximum on their ability to force turnovers and pick up steals and then get extra points off these extra scoring opportunities. It will take at least 8 steals and 15 forced turnovers to give the Wolf Pack any chance of winning this game, and a more likely winning scenario would need 10 or more steals and 17 or more turnovers forced. Without these parameters being met, Purdue will win the half-court battle at both ends enough times to secure a comfortable win. The officials have not called three-seconds once on Edey the entire tournament, and he’s been in the lane long enough to get a parking ticket. And, while he’s been fouled on almost every possession in the tournament, he’s done a good deal of fouling right back. Who knows if this will change in the Final Four, but if Edey were forced to the bench with foul trouble, the game becomes more evenly matched.
One other thing to look at in this game is whether Purdue’s outside shooters remain hot from the field. If they hit over 40% from behind the arc, Edey can be held to 18 points and Purdue will still win.
One minor thing to consider is that NC State coach Kevin Keatts comes from the Rick Pitino coaching tree, and this tree has been quite successful in the Final Four with Billy Donovan and Tubby Smith owning championship rings. Keatts must know that he’s going to have to put exceptional pressure on the PU back-court, but Painter is no fool; he knows exactly what the Wolf Pack must do to win, and he’s definitely prepared his perimeter players this week for the expected strategy to be employed.
| Stat | UConn | Alabama |
| O-RTG | 126.7 | 125.8 |
| D-RTG | 91.5 | 102.6 |
| SOS | 61.8 | 63.2 |
| 3-Pt | 35.8 | 37.1 |
| O-Reb | 36.6 | 35.2 |
| 2PT%D | 43.0 | 50.7 |
| FTR | 32.4 | 35.7 |
| R+T Rate | 12.3 | 3.9 |
| Old R+T | 22.2 | 9.9 |
| Marg | 18.1 | 9.5 |
| Win Strk | 14/11/7 | 6 |
| Pre25 | Y | Y |
| Champ | Y | N |
| Coach Exp | 5 (NC) | 6 |
| 3 Upper | N | Y |
| F/C 20-12 | Y | N |
| DBLFIG | 5.0 | 4 |
| OReb | 36.6 | 35.2 |
| OStl | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| OTurn | 12.5 | 13.6 |
| DReb | 26.7 | 30.8 |
| DStl | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| DTurn | 14.0 | 13.2 |
| Reb Marg | 8.8 | 4.1 |
| Stl/G | 6.3 | 7.1 |
| D Stl | 5.5 | 7.5 |
| TO Marg | 0.9 | -0.4 |
Verdict: This has the makings of another blowout win for the defending national champions. Alabama’s defense is not up to the task of slowing down Connecticut, and the only way the Crimson Tide can stay in this game is if they hit about 15 three-pointers and force the pace to go north of 73 possessions. Otherwise, UConn will grab the lead in the first half and have this game out of reach by halftime, or if Alabama is still within reach, the Huskies will go on one of their patented second half runs to cause many viewers to turn off the game and go about their normal Saturday night activities.
Note: North Carolina State playing in its 41st game in the Semifinals becomes just the third Division 1 team ever to play 41 games in a season, or half an NBA season. If the Wolf Pack upset Purdue to make it to the final game, they will be the first team ever to play 42 games in a season. The other two teams that played 41 games were Connecticut in 2011 and Michigan in 2018. The 2011 UConn team did it the same way that NC State has done it so far this year–win 5 games in 5 days in their conference tournament to even qualify for the Big Dance and then win six more NCAA Tournament games to win the Championship. NC State has won four more games to get to game 41.
| Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
| Indiana St. | Utah | 0.4 |
| Seton Hall | Georgia | 2.4 |
| Home | Visitor | Spread |
| Duke | North Carolina St. | 8.2 |
| Purdue | Tennessee | 2.5 |
| NCAA Tournament Schedule | ||||
| All Times EST | ||||
| 2:20 PM on CBS | ||||
| Purdue | 32-4 | vs. | Tennessee | 27-8 |
| 5:05 PM on CBS | ||||
| Duke | 27-8 | vs. | North Carolina St. | 25-14 |
| Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
| Connecticut | Illinois | 5.7 |
| Alabama | Clemson | 5.0 |
| NCAA Tournament Schedule | ||||
| All Times EST | ||||
| 6:00 PM on TBS | ||||
| Connecticut | 34-3 | vs. | Illinois | 29-8 |
| 8:45 PM on TBS | ||||
| Alabama | 24-11 | vs. | Clemson | 24-11 |
| Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
| Marquette | North Carolina St. | 6.9 |
| Purdue | Gonzaga | 4.8 |
| Houston | Duke | 3.2 |
| Tennessee | Creighton | 2.0 |
| NCAA Tournament Schedule | ||||
| All Times EST | ||||
| 7:00 PM on CBS | ||||
| Marquette | 27-9 | vs. | North Carolina St. | 24-14 |
| 7:30 PM on TBS | ||||
| Purdue | 31-4 | vs. | Gonzaga | 27-7 |
| 9:30 PM on CBS | ||||
| Houston | 32-4 | vs. | Duke | 26-8 |
| 10:00 PM on TBS | ||||
| Tennessee | 26-8 | vs. | Creighton | 25-9 |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 