PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 24, 2022

Thursday, March 24, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Gonzaga	Arkansas	10.2
Villanova	Michigan	4.0
Duke	Texas Tech	-0.2
Arizona	Houston	1.3

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 19, 2022

Saturday’s Games–NCAA, NIT, CBI, and The Basketball Classic

Saturday, March 19, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Baylor	North Carolina	7.3
Kansas	Creighton	9.0
Tennessee	Michigan	5.4
Providence	Richmond	3.5
UCLA	Saint Mary’s	4.6
Murray St.	Saint Peter’s	9.0
Arkansas	New Mexico St.	7.9
Gonzaga	Memphis	12.0
Texas A&M	Oregon	3.9
Wake Forest	VCU	4.8
BYU	Northern Iowa	6.7
Drake	Purdue Ft. Wayne	9.5
Stephen F. Austin	UNC Asheville	5.7
Middle Tennessee	Cal Baptist	6.8
Ohio	Rice	5.9
UTEP	Western Illinois	6.6
Portland	New Orleans	8.2

Team	O-Eff	D-Eff	SOS	37+ 3pt	OReb%	-45% vs. 2pt	FT Rate 37	R + T New Rate	R+T Old Rate
Baylor	9	14	61.1	34.6	36.3	49.5	28.5	11.4	17.4
N. Carolina	27	64	58.0	36.2	30.4	48.3	29.6	10.0	15.7
Kansas	6	29	61.8	35.5	33.4	47.9	32.8	5.2	12.1
Creighton	124	18	58.6	30.7	28.6	43.5	26.0	-1.8	4.0
Tennessee	36	3	61.8	35.9	32.8	45.8	29.6	8.5	13.9
Michigan	19	91	61.6	34.0	31.2	50.8	28.9	7.8	12.5
Providence	31	79	57.5	34.3	30.5	46.6	38.5	2.1	7.4
Richmond	68	104	54.8	33.7	22.4	50.0	30.9	-3.4	1.5
UCLA	15	12	59.4	35.1	29.8	47.3	36.8	5.7	17.3
Saint Mary’s	63	9	57.3	35.0	27.8	46.0	23.9	7.3	13.2
Murray St.	35	40	48.4	35.3	36.0	48.3	31.3	15.2	24.0
Saint Peter’s	259	34	48.3	35.3	32.0	43.5	37.1	5.0	9.0
Arkansas	40	16	58.4	30.7	30.8	46.4	37.9	7.1	12.8
N. Mexico St.	87	73	50.7	32.6	33.7	45.6	34.8	8.1	14.5
Gonzaga	1	7	56.9	37.9	29.0	41.6	29.8	7.2	21.8
Memphis	50	31	57.3	35.9	37.5	45.3	38.4	6.7	11.7

Bracketnomics Predictions

Baylor vs. North Carolina

Baylor is just a tad stronger across the board and has a lot more NCAA Tournament experience on the bench and on the court.  Baylor should win but not by a large margin.

Kansas vs. Creighton

This has all the looks of a large margin victory for the Jayhawks   Creighton’s offense looks to be in trouble against Kansas’s defense, and spurtability heavily favors KU.

Tennessee vs. Michigan

This should be a close game with several lead changes.  Michigan’s interior defense may be a tad vulnerable to Tennessee’s inside muscle, but, the Wolverines’ offense is considerably better overall than Tennessee’s offense.  Schedule strength and R+T Ratings are basically a wash.  Solely on the interior defense, Tennessee gets the nod.

Providence vs. Richmond

Can Richmond make the Sweet 16 with an R+T Rating that shows the Spiders receive little or no Spurtability?  Providence is not a pushover, but the Friars are most likely not going to advance past the Sweet 16.  Providence has the advantage in every one of these stats.  Richmond beat Iowa by playing a much better half court game than the Big Ten Tournament champs.  Providence’s win over South Dakota St. was a little more hustle points over half court game, and it gets really difficult for a team to keep winning the half court game over and over, especially when the other team has the decided Spurtability advantage.  Look for the Friars to advance.

UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s

This game could stay close for quite a long time.  UCLA has the clear-cut edge in the essential stats, but the edge is not large enough to call the Bruins a prohibitive favorite.  The key here is the FT rate, where UCLA might be a little quicker and force SMC to commit more than their usual number of fouls.  UCLA needs to keep its starters on the floor more than the average tournament team, and the Gaels do not figure to force key players to go to the bench with foul trouble.  Give the edge to the Bruins but don’t expect a big blowout.

Murray St. vs. Saint Peter’s

In all but one respect, these teams are rather evenly matched.  Murray State has a huge R+T Rating advantage, 15 points to be exact in the old counting stat version and three times more in the rate stat version.  What this means is that the Racers are likely to enjoy one major spurt or multiple smaller spurts and pull away from the Peacocks at some point in the game.  Saint Peter’s won’t have the ability to play catch-up after a large spurt.  The Racers will be an interesting Sweet 16 team.

Arkansas vs. New Mexico St.

This game has special meaning with yours truly, ye old PiRate Captain.  Five years ago, when he was the head coach at Nevada, I called Eric Musselman the best Mid-Major head coach and a sure thing success wherever he ended up in a power conference.  When he was hired by Arkansas, I predicted he would return the Razorbacks to the prominence they enjoyed under Eddie Sutton and Nolan Richardson and have Arkansas competing for a shot at the Final Four within five years.  He is only in year three, and he almost made the Final Four last year.  

New Mexico State head coach Chris Jans is my current top Mid-Major coach in college basketball.  It is my belief that when he gets a power five coaching job, he too will produce the results Muss is producing in Fayetteville.

Now, about this game: Arkansas has a bit too much defensive abilities for the Aggies to consistently score in this game.  The difference in schedule strength and the slight evidence that the Razorbacks have a little more quickness is enough to call this one in Arkansas’s favor.  Don’t discount NMSU; Jans can coach undermanned talent and keep games close.  The Aggies can keep this game close and even have a chance to pull the upset, but the Razorbacks have about a 65% chance of winning this game.  Arky goes to the Sweet 16 again.

Gonzaga vs. Memphis

Don’t automatically dismiss Memphis in this game.  While Gonzaga has a decisive Bracketnomics advantage, Memphis has two superior aspects that can be used to exploit the 1-seed, and both work together to strengthen the advantages.  

Memphis has an exceptional offensive rebounding advantage in this game.  The Tigers are one of a small handful that have an O Reb% in excess of the magical 37%.  Memphis also exceeds the 37% margin in FT rate, which shows the Tigers have explosive quickness to the rim.  If Gonzaga gets into foul trouble in this game, all their other advantages will be neutralized.

Gonzaga is still the pick here, but this game should be a lot closer than expected, and Memphis will have a chance to pull off the big upset if Gonzaga fouls too much.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–Saturday Morning, the day before Selection Sunday

Date	3/12/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Arizona	Gonzaga	Baylor	Kentucky
2	Kansas	Auburn	Duke	Purdue
3	Villanova	Tennessee	Texas Tech	Wisconsin
4	UCLA	Arkansas	Illinois	Providence
5	Connecticut	Houston	Iowa	Texas
6	Saint Mary’s	LSU	Alabama	Colorado St.
7	Michigan St.	Boise St.	Ohio St.	USC
8	San Diego St.	TCU	Murray St.	Creighton
9	Memphis	North Carolina	Iowa St.	Seton Hall
10	Marquette	Davidson	Loyola (Chi.)	San Francisco
11	Indiana	Miami (Fla.)	Notre Dame	Michigan
12	South Dakota St.	UAB	SMU	Wyoming	Rutgers	Virginia Tech
13	Vermont	Chattanooga	New Mexico St.	Princeton
14	Kent St.	Montana St.	Longwood	Colgate
15	Long Beach St.	Monmouth	Delaware	Jacksonville St.
16	Wright St.	Bryant	Norfolk St.	Georgia St.	Texas Southern	Texas A&M-CC

Teams That Can Steal a Bid (Alphabetical Order)

Dayton

Richmond

Saint Louis

Texas A&M

Tulane

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/7/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Arizona	Gonzaga	Baylor	Auburn
2	Kansas	Kentucky	Duke	Purdue
3	Wisconsin	Villanova	Tennessee	Texas Tech
4	Illinois	Providence	UCLA	Arkansas
5	Connecticut	Houston	Texas	Alabama
6	Saint Mary’s	LSU	Iowa	Ohio St.
7	Colorado St.	USC	Boise St.	Seton Hall
8	Michigan St.	Iowa St.	Murray St.	Marquette
9	North Carolina	San Diego St.	TCU	San Francisco
10	Creighton	Michigan	Loyola (Chi.)	Davidson
11	Miami (Fla.)	Memphis	Xavier	Notre Dame
12	South Dakota St.	North Texas	Wake Forest	Wyoming	Rutgers	SMU
13	Iona	Toledo	Chattanooga	Vermont
14	New Mexico St.	Princeton	Towson	Montana St.
15	Long Beach St.	Longwood	Jacksonville St.	Colgate
16	Georgia St.	Purdue Ft. Wayne	Bryant	Nicholls St.	Norfolk St.	Texas Southern

Last 4 Byes

Miami (Fla.)

Memphis

Xavier

Notre Dame

Last Four In

Wake Forest

Wyoming

Rutgers

SMU

First Four Out

VCU

Indiana

BYU

Dayton

Next Four Out

Texas A&M

Florida

Virginia Tech

Saint Louis

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 6, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
America East Conference–Quarterfinals
Higher Seed at Home
Home Team	Lower Seed	Spread
Vermont	NJIT	21.5
Maryland Baltimore Co.	UMass Lowell	2.5
New Hampshire	Binghamton	6.6
Hartford	Albany	3.7
Big South Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Charlotte
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Longwood	Winthrop	-1.2
Colonial Athletic Association–Quarterfinals
Charlotte
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Towson	Northeastern	11.9
Drexel	Delaware	0.9
UNC Wilmington	Elon	3.4
Hofstra	Charleston	2.6
Missouri Valley Conference CHAMPIONSHIP
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Drake	Loyola (Chi.)	4.2
Patriot League–Semifinals
Higher Seed at Home
Home	Visitor	Spread
Colgate	Lehigh	11.7
Navy
Southern Conference–Semifinals
Asheville, NC
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Chattanooga	Wofford	2.4
Furman	Samford	8.5
Summit League–Quarterfinals Continue
Sioux Falls, SD
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Kansas City	South Dakota	0.1
Oral Roberts	Western Illinois	6.0
Sun Belt Conference–Semifinals
Pensacola, FL
Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Troy	Louisiana	-0.3
Appalachian St.	Georgia St.	-0.4

Sunday’s Regularly Scheduled Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Memphis	Houston	-3.7
Rutgers	Penn St.	4.2
Ohio St.	Michigan	3.7
Wisconsin	Nebraska	13.1
Tulsa	Central Florida	-2.5
Temple	South Florida	9.1
SMU	Tulane	7.4
Michigan St.	Maryland	5.9
Illinois	Iowa	2.0
Northwestern	Minnesota	5.8

Dance Tickets Punched

1

Murray St.

Ohio Valley

30-2

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/28/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Arizona	Gonzaga	Baylor	Kansas
2	Auburn	Duke	Kentucky	Purdue
3	Texas Tech	Villanova	Wisconsin	Tennessee
4	Providence	Illinois	Connecticut	UCLA
5	Texas	Arkansas	Ohio St.	Alabama
6	Houston	Saint Mary’s	USC	Michigan St.
7	LSU	Marquette	Iowa	Iowa St.
8	Colorado St.	Boise St.	Seton Hall	Murray St.
9	Wyoming	TCU	Notre Dame	Xavier
10	Creighton	San Francisco	Wake Forest	Davidson
11	North Texas	North Carolina	San Diego St.	Miami (Fla.)
12	Iona	South Dakota St.	Indiana	Memphis	Michigan	SMU
13	Chattanooga	New Mexico St.	Toledo	Vermont
14	Towson	Texas St.	Princeton	Northern Iowa
15	Jacksonville St.	Montana St.	Long Beach St.	Longwood
16	Colgate	Purdue Ft. Wayne	Bryant	Nicholls St.	Norfolk St.	Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69	Loyola (Chi.)
70	BYU
71	Rutgers
72	Florida
73	VCU
74	Virginia Tech
75	Oregon
76	St. Bonaventure
77	Dayton
78	Oklahoma
79	Mississippi St.
80	Belmont

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 27, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Georgetown	Connecticut	-14.7
Harvard	Princeton	-5.1
Houston	SMU	12.8
Quinnipiac	Canisius	1.1
Michigan	Illinois	-0.1
Manhattan	Fairfield	-0.2
Saint Peter’s	Niagara	4.9
Siena	Monmouth	-5.5
Rider	Iona	-12.1
Memphis	Wichita St.	8.1
George Mason	George Washington	11.5
Temple	Tulane	1.0
Maryland	Ohio St.	2.5
UNC Greensboro	East Tennessee St.	3.4
DePaul	St. John’s	-1.6
Montana	Montana St.	-2.8
Minnesota	Indiana	-3.3
Penn St.	Nebraska	12.6

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Army	Bucknell	3.0
St. John’s	Creighton	4.3
South Carolina	Mississippi St.	-1.7
Virginia	Duke	-7.0
Providence	Xavier	1.3
Texas	TCU	8.9
VCU	George Mason	7.4
Georgia St.	UL Monroe	9.0
Boston U	Lafayette	9.8
Holy Cross	Colgate	-13.3
East Carolina	South Florida	6.5
Lehigh	American	4.1
Navy	Loyola (MD)	8.1
Longwood	Radford	9.9
North Carolina A&T	High Point	1.6
Gardner-Webb	UNC Asheville	5.0
Presbyterian	Charleston Southern	10.7
Hampton	Campbell	-6.2
North Carolina St.	Boston College	6.0
Notre Dame	Syracuse	3.4
Clemson	Wake Forest	-1.1
Binghamton	Vermont	-12.2
UMass Lowell	Stony Brook	2.4
NJIT	New Hampshire	-2.0
Hartford	Maryland Baltimore Co.	0.6
Maine	Albany	-6.3
North Alabama	Central Arkansas	5.0
Liberty	Florida Gulf Coast	8.4
Kennesaw St.	Stetson	7.2
Jacksonville St.	Eastern Kentucky	8.8
Jacksonville	North Florida	6.2
Bellarmine	Lipscomb	7.8
Iowa St.	West Virginia	4.3
Troy	UT Arlington	4.4
Georgia Southern	Louisiana	-0.5
Valparaiso	Drake	-5.0
Indiana St.	Northern Iowa	-5.7
Fordham	La Salle	5.8
Dayton	Massachusetts	12.8
Duquesne	Davidson	-11.5
VMI	Wofford	-0.1
UNC Greensboro	Western Carolina	10.7
East Tennessee St.	Chattanooga	-4.7
Mercer	The Citadel	5.9
Michigan	Rutgers	7.1
Little Rock	Appalachian St.	-8.2
Tulane	Houston	-10.4
Southern Illinois	Illinois St.	5.7
SMU	Tulsa	11.5
Chicago St.	Grand Canyon	-15.9
South Alabama	Texas St.	3.8
Arkansas St.	Coastal Carolina	1.1
Missouri St.	Bradley	5.2
Loyola (Chi.)	Evansville	22.0
Samford	Furman	-7.0
Auburn	Mississippi	15.7
Seton Hall	Butler	12.1
Kentucky	LSU	8.1
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-3.7
Central Florida	Cincinnati	2.2
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-6.7
Colorado St.	Wyoming	4.4
Washington St.	Washington	10.6

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/21/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Arizona	Kansas	Auburn
2	Kentucky	Baylor	Purdue	Duke
3	Texas Tech	Illinois	Villanova	Tennessee
4	Wisconsin	UCLA	Providence	Texas
5	Alabama	Houston	Ohio St.	Connecticut
6	LSU	Arkansas	Michigan St.	USC
7	Marquette	Saint Mary’s	Xavier	Colorado St.
8	Boise St.	Iowa St.	Seton Hall	Murray St.
9	Wyoming	Iowa	San Francisco	TCU
10	Wake Forest	Davidson	San Diego St.	Creighton
11	Notre Dame	Miami (Fla.)	Indiana	Memphis	Michigan
12	North Texas	Iona	Chattanooga	Loyola (Chi.)	North Carolina
13	South Dakota St.	New Mexico St.	Northern Iowa	Vermont
14	Toledo	Wagner	Towson	Montana St.
15	Jacksonville St.	Princeton	Texas St.	UC-Irvine
16	Cleveland St.	Colgate	Longwood	New Orleans	Norfolk St.	Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69	BYU
70	SMU
71	Florida
72	Rutgers
73	VCU
74	Belmont
75	Oklahoma
76	Oregon

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 20, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Butler	Providence	-3.7
Wichita St.	Houston	-8.3
Wisconsin	Michigan	1.8
Maine	NJIT	-3.0
Detroit	Wright St.	0.6
Iona	Fairfield	11.2
Cincinnati	Temple	7.4
Central Florida	East Carolina	10.1
Milwaukee	Purdue Fort Wayne	-2.8
Northern Iowa	Missouri St.	-1.4
Marist	Quinnipiac	6.6
Siena	Saint Peter’s	-2.4
Manhattan	Rider	3.0
Fordham	George Mason	-3.2
SMU	Memphis	-0.1
Creighton	Marquette	0.2
Oakland	Northern Kentucky	6.9
Green Bay	Cleveland St.	-8.4
San Jose St.	New Mexico	-6.0
Hartford	Stony Brook	0.5
Loyola (MD)	Lehigh	5.0
Purdue	Rutgers	12.6
Bellarmine	Jacksonville St.	0.8
USC	Washington St.	5.0
Missouri	Mississippi St.	-5.9