The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 13-14, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:20 pm

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads of Major Conference Games

Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Tulane Connecticut 3.8
Temple Memphis 10.2
South Florida Cincinnati -22.9
Tulsa Wichita St. -11.6
Duke Wake Forest 17.3
Florida St. Syracuse 7.6
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech -2.8
Clemson Miami (Fla.) 4.4
Louisville Virginia Tech 3.9
Notre Dame North Carolina 0.5
Kansas Kansas St. 12.0
Oklahoma TCU 5.6
Texas Tech West Virginia 4.8
Iowa St. Baylor -4.1
Oklahoma St. Texas 0.0
Seton Hall Georgetown 11.6
Xavier Creighton 2.2
St. John’s Villanova -12.5
Michigan St. Michigan 10.2
Minnesota Purdue -8.3
Wyoming Colorado St. 8.2
San Jose St. Air Force 0.8
Fresno St. New Mexico 5.9
Nevada Utah St. 14.6
Boise St. San Diego St. 3.3
Arizona Oregon 8.9
Washington St. California 5.6
Arizona St. Oregon St. 15.3
Washington Stanford 4.5
UCLA Colorado 10.5
Ole Miss Florida -5.0
Georgia South Carolina 4.9
Mississippi St. Auburn -3.3
Vanderbilt Kentucky -4.1
Tennessee Texas A&M 4.7
Arkansas Missouri 4.9
LSU Alabama 3.8
Pepperdine Saint Mary’s -17.3
San Francisco Gonzaga -13.5
Santa Clara BYU -10.4
San Diego Loyola Marymount 11.2
Portland Pacific -2.5
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
East Carolina Houston -17.2
Virginia North Carolina St. 14.7
Indiana Northwestern 0.6
Rutgers Ohio St. -6.0
USC Utah 5.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Villanova 121.1 BIGE
2 Purdue 120.0 BTEN
3 Duke 119.7 ACC
4 Michigan St. 119.3 BTEN
5 Kansas 117.6 B12
6 Virginia 117.5 ACC
7 Gonzaga 117.2 WCC
8 Texas Tech 116.9 B12
9 North Carolina 116.2 ACC
10 Cincinnati 116.0 AAC
11 Wichita St. 116.0 AAC
12 West Virginia 115.6 B12
13 Creighton 115.0 BIGE
14 Oklahoma 114.8 B12
15 Xavier 113.7 BIGE
16 Tennessee 113.2 SEC
17 Arizona 113.2 PAC12
18 Arizona St. 113.2 PAC12
19 Clemson 112.9 ACC
20 Notre Dame 112.7 ACC
21 TCU 112.7 B12
22 Florida 112.7 SEC
23 Florida St. 112.5 ACC
24 Auburn 112.4 SEC
25 Michigan 112.1 BTEN

PiRate Ratings By Major Conference

Team PiRate Conf.
Cincinnati 116.0 AAC
Wichita St. 116.0 AAC
SMU 110.2 AAC
Houston 110.0 AAC
UCF 105.4 AAC
Temple 105.3 AAC
Tulsa 101.4 AAC
Tulane 101.3 AAC
Connecticut 100.5 AAC
Memphis 98.6 AAC
South Florida 90.1 AAC
East Carolina 89.8 AAC
Duke 119.7 ACC
Virginia 117.5 ACC
North Carolina 116.2 ACC
Clemson 112.9 ACC
Notre Dame 112.7 ACC
Florida St. 112.5 ACC
Miami FL 112.0 ACC
Louisville 110.5 ACC
Virginia Tech 110.1 ACC
Syracuse 108.4 ACC
North Carolina St. 106.8 ACC
Wake Forest 105.4 ACC
Boston College 105.4 ACC
Georgia Tech 102.3 ACC
Pittsburgh 96.5 ACC
Kansas 117.6 B12
Texas Tech 116.9 B12
West Virginia 115.6 B12
Oklahoma 114.8 B12
TCU 112.7 B12
Baylor 110.9 B12
Texas 110.8 B12
Kansas St. 108.6 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.8 B12
Iowa St. 103.8 B12
Villanova 121.1 BIGE
Creighton 115.0 BIGE
Xavier 113.7 BIGE
Seton Hall 112.0 BIGE
Butler 110.3 BIGE
Marquette 110.0 BIGE
Providence 106.8 BIGE
St. John’s 105.6 BIGE
Georgetown 103.9 BIGE
DePaul 103.6 BIGE
Purdue 120.0 BTEN
Michigan St. 119.3 BTEN
Michigan 112.1 BTEN
Ohio St. 112.1 BTEN
Maryland 110.7 BTEN
Penn St. 109.8 BTEN
Minnesota 108.2 BTEN
Northwestern 107.6 BTEN
Wisconsin 105.9 BTEN
Iowa 105.4 BTEN
Illinois 105.4 BTEN
Indiana 104.7 BTEN
Nebraska 104.7 BTEN
Rutgers 103.1 BTEN
Nevada 111.8 MWC
San Diego St. 109.1 MWC
Boise St. 108.9 MWC
UNLV 105.9 MWC
Fresno St. 104.3 MWC
Wyoming 101.9 MWC
New Mexico 101.4 MWC
Utah St. 100.7 MWC
Colorado St. 96.7 MWC
Air Force 92.1 MWC
San Jose St. 89.9 MWC
Arizona 113.2 PAC12
Arizona St. 113.2 PAC12
UCLA 108.7 PAC12
USC 108.7 PAC12
Oregon 107.8 PAC12
Utah 106.6 PAC12
Washington 102.7 PAC12
Colorado 102.2 PAC12
Stanford 101.7 PAC12
Oregon St. 101.4 PAC12
Washington St. 99.0 PAC12
California 96.4 PAC12
Tennessee 113.2 SEC
Florida 112.7 SEC
Auburn 112.4 SEC
Texas A&M 112.0 SEC
Kentucky 112.0 SEC
Arkansas 111.8 SEC
Missouri 110.4 SEC
LSU 108.6 SEC
Alabama 108.3 SEC
Georgia 107.0 SEC
Mississippi St. 105.6 SEC
South Carolina 105.1 SEC
Vanderbilt 104.9 SEC
Mississippi 104.2 SEC
Gonzaga 117.2 WCC
Saint Mary’s 111.3 WCC
BYU 106.5 WCC
San Diego 102.6 WCC
San Francisco 100.7 WCC
Pacific 97.0 WCC
Loyola Marymount 94.4 WCC
Santa Clara 92.6 WCC
Portland 91.5 WCC
Pepperdine 91.0 WCC

10 Mid-Major Teams That Have The Talent And Coaching To Make The Sweet 16
(listed alphabetically)

East Tennessee St.
Conference–Southern
Current Won-Loss Records– 4-0/13-4
Head Coach–Steve Forbes
Family Tree–Bruce Pearl & Gregg Marshall

With the Buccaneers’ win over UNC-Greensboro last night, ETSU remains in a 1st place tie with Furman in the SoCon. ETSU stayed close in their NCAA Tournament game with Florida last year, and this year’s team is a bit better. The Bucs came close to pulling off the upset win at #10 Xavier earlier this season, and they didn’t get embarrassed against Kentucky at Rupp Arena. The Bucs have won 11 of their last 12 with an average scoring margin of 81-64. ETSU plays at Furman next Thursday night.

Middle Tennessee St.
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-4
Head Coach–Kermit Davis, Jr.
Family Tree–Bob Boyd & Tim Floyd

It should come as no surprise to most basketball fans, especially those in the Big Ten, that the Blue Raiders are a force to be reckoned with. MTSU has won back-to-back second round NCAA Tournament games over Michigan State and Minnesota, before falling in the Round of 32 to strong teams. The Blue Raiders have at times this year played like a top 20 team. In December, they swept Florida Gulf Coast in a rare, back-to-back home and home series; then they won at neighborhood SEC rival Vanderbilt; then they blew Ole Miss off the floor in a home game; before losing close to Auburn in Birmingham in a game where they made a furious comeback to have a chance to win. Then, in Hawaii, they lost close games to USC and Miami. Star forward Nick King has five double-doubles so far, while Giddy Potts is the glue that keeps this team together. His defensive pressure can take opponents out of their offensive game plans.

Next week, MTSU plays on the road at the two toughest venues outside of their own Murphy Athletic Center. On Thursday night, the Blue Raiders visit Marshall, and on Saturday, they face off against chief rival Western Kentucky. If MTSU splits those two games, then they should secure another CUSA regular season title.

Missouri St.
Conference–Missouri Valley
Current Won-Loss Records–3-2/13-5
Head Coach–Paul Lusk
Family Tree–Gene Keady & Matt Painter

With Wichita State moving up to the American Athletic Conference, Missouri State becomes one of multiple contenders for the top spot in the Valley. Under Coach Paul Lusk, a former Purdue assistant, MSU has become a defensive force, especially inside, where the Bears have the best frontcourt in the league, led by top big man Alize Johnson. Johnson currently averages 15.2 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. This team can go eight deep with talented depth, and when their supporting cast is knocking down threes, this team can compete against anybody. MSU has a key game coming up at Drake a week from tomorrow. The winner of that game should be looking down at the rest of the league in the standings into February.

New Mexico St.
Conference–Western Athletic
Current Won-Loss Records–2-0/14-3
Head Coach–Chris Jans
Family Tree–Gregg Marshall

The Aggies might be strong enough to make a Cinderella run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and even consider themselves a possible Final Four contender. If you think this is impossible, it actually would not be a first in Las Cruces. NMSU has been in the Final Four, and it was no fluke back in 1970 when then coach Lou Henson guided the Aggies to a number three ranking in the polls.

This NMSU team has already made a name for itself with wins over Illinois in a not-so-neutral site game in Chicago and against Miami of Florida in Hawaii. After besting conference rival Grand Canyon by 11 last night, NMSU could run the table in the WAC this year and enter the NCAA Tournament as high as an 11th seed.

The Aggies are undersized and need to rely on pressure man-to-man defense with the occasional full-court press, but they play taller than they are and usually win the rebounding war, where they have a plus 8.7 margin presently.

Northern Kentucky
Conference–Horizon
Current Won-Loss Records–4-1/11-6
Head Coach–John Brannen
Family Tree–John Kresse & Anthony Grant

Until losing at home to Wright State last night, NKU looked like an almost sure thing to return to the NCAA Tournament this year after making their first appearance last year.

The Norse return the three stars that kept the team in the game against Kentucky in the Second Round last year, and it figures that NKU could win a second and even third round game this year, but they have to get there first. With Wright State looking like they could soon make this list, who knows if they will get another shot?

Old Dominion
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–3-1/12-4
Head Coach–Jeff Jones
Family Tree–Terry Holland

With an ACC championship at Virginia and four Colonial Athletic championships at American, Jeff Jones knows how to win. Old Dominion is one of four talented contenders for the CUSA crown, and most likely just one CUSA will get an invitation. So, it figures that ODU has about a 25% chance of going dancing this year. If they do get there, the Monarchs have the talent to stay around awhile.

ODU wins with its defense, where the Monarchs hold opponents to under 40% shooting from the field and then have a 5.6 rebounding margin and 3.9 turnover margin. At +9.5 in the hustle points, the opponent must shoot lights out or force ODU to shoot around 35% or worse to beat the Monarchs. Keep an eye on 6-10 post man Trey Porter, who appears to be on the cusp of breaking out into a star. In the last 5 games, he has averaged 17.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting 62% from the field.

If you are a fan of seeing a great offense go up against a great defense, you may want to tune into tomorrow’s ODU-Marshall game to see how the Monarchs’ defend the D’Antoni seven-second offense.

Rhode Island
Conference–Atlantic 10
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-3
Head Coach–Dan Hurley
Family Tree–Bob Wenzel (student of former Duke coach Bill Foster)

Before Rams’ fans get on our case that URI should be considered a Major and not Mid-Major team, and that they should move up into an at-large proability, we actually agree with you. And, if the Rams continue to win and make it obvious that they are a definite at-large team, we will move the A-10 up into the Major Conference grouping and rank the teams in this league like we are doing for the Mountain West and West Coast Conferences.

Dan Hurley is not getting all the publicity that his little brother has been getting at Arizona State, but the older of the two brothers is doing a smashup job at Rhode Island.
The Rams’ three losses have come to Nevada in Reno, Virginia in Brooklyn, and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They have wins against Seton Hall, Providence, and Florida Gulf Coast, and they get a chance to pick up another key win tomorrow when they host St. Bonaventure.

URI came close to making the Sweet 16 last year, beating Creighton before losing a heartbreaker to Oregon in the NCAA Tournament.

St. Bonaventure
Conference–Atlantic 10
Current Won-Loss Records–2-2/12-4
Head Coach–Mark Schmidt
Family Tree–Bruce Parkhill and Skip Prosser

The Bonnies have been close to making the Big Dance the last two years, coming up a game or two short. This may be their best team since 1978. With wins over over Maryland and Syracuse, St. Bonaventure has already shown that big time teams do not intimidate this group. A couple of senior leaders, Matt Mobley and Jaylen Adams, make a great one-two punch for the Bonnies, as the two combine to average 35.5 points per game. Earlier this season against UMass, the two combined for 60 points and 9 of 16 from behind the arc. If a dance opponent or two catches the pair this hot, SBU can get to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Of course, they still must earn their way into the dance, and losing back-to-back road games against Dayton and St. Joe’s damaged their at-large chances.

Their game with Rhode Island tomorrow morning is a real test to see if they are tournament worthy.

Vermont
Conference–America East
Current Won-Loss Records–2-0/12-5
Head Coach–John Becker
Family Tree–Mike Lonergan (who was a Gary Williams disciple)

Vermont has become the Villanova of the America East Conference. The Catamounts were overwhelming favorites to win the league this year after returning most of the team that won the league last year and led Purdue for a bit in their NCAA Tournament loss to the Boilermakers.

VU’s most impressive game this year was its opener at Kentucky, where the Catamounts made a furious comeback before falling by four points. Expect the Catamounts to extend their current five-game winning streak well into double digits, and it would not surprise us if VU wins out from here to enter the NCAA Tournament at 29-5.

Forward Anthony Lamb has averaged 22.5 points per game since New Year’s Day, and if guard Ernie Duncan can become more consistent, the Catamounts can make it to the Sweet 16.

Western Kentucky
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-5
Head Coach–Rick Stansbury
Family Tree–Lake Kelly and Richard Williams

It should be no surprise to long-time basketball fans that Western Kentucky has a team capable of becoming a Sweet 16 entrant in the NCAA Tournament. The Hilltoppers have been there before multiple times, even earning a Final Four berth in 1971, where WKU fell in overtime to Villanova.

This Hilltopper team is not going to remind the old-timers of the Clem Haskins or Jim McDaniel days. However, if you saw this team play in the Battle for Atlantis, they narrowly lost to top-ranked Villanova and then bested Purdue and SMU.
More importantly, WKU went on the road this past week and topped two of the three rivals they must defeat to win the CUSA Championship. The Hilltoppers beat Marshall 112-87 and Old Dominion 75-68, which leaves them currently tied for first with their arch-rival, Middle Tennessee.

In other years, CUSA might qualify two teams for the NCAA Tournament coming from the four teams that on any given night, could knock off a Big Ten or SEC opponent. However, unless one team runs the table in the regular season and then finished runner-up in the CUSA Tournament, it isn’t likely that the league will get an at-large bid.
WKU wins games because they have an incredible number of accurate shooters who know how to get open. All 5 starters average double figure scoring, and Coach Stansbury has a trio of competent rebounders and a duo of great playmakers.

Saturday, January 20, and Thursday, March 1 are the dates when WKU and Middle face off. The first game will be in Bowling Green, so WKU should be a slight favorite.

 

 

 

 

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January 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 6-7, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:02 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (multi-bid leagues only)

Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Connecticut East Carolina 14.7
Memphis Tulsa -0.9
Clemson Louisville 6.7
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 15.1
Virginia North Carolina 4.3
Syracuse Notre Dame 0.2
Boston College Wake Forest 3.1
North Carolina St. Duke -11.4
Baylor Texas 2.8
Texas Tech Kansas St. 10.1
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 8.0
West Virginia Oklahoma 4.4
TCU Kansas -1.3
Providence Xavier -4.7
Georgetown Creighton -5.9
St. John’s DePaul 7.6
Butler Seton Hall 2.2
Villanova Marquette 14.6
Michigan Illinois 9.7
Purdue Nebraska 18.2
Minnesota Indiana 11.4
Air Force Nevada -15.5
Colorado St. Fresno St. -4.5
Wyoming Boise St. -2.4
New Mexico San Jose St. 11.3
UNLV Utah St. 9.7
Colorado Arizona -8.3
Washington St. Washington -0.1
California UCLA -6.6
Georgia Alabama 0.7
Missouri Florida 2.6
Texas A&M LSU 8.6
Ole Miss Mississippi St. 1.3
Auburn Arkansas 1.6
South Carolina Vanderbilt 2.5
Tennessee Kentucky 4.1
Pepperdine San Francisco -3.7
Loyola Marymount Gonzaga -17.2
Pacific BYU -6.0
Santa Clara Portland 4.4
Saint Mary’s San Diego 13.9
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Central Florida Temple 1.5
Wichita St. South Florida 27.0
Cincinnati SMU 6.6
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 0.5
Ohio St. Michigan St. -6.7
Maryland Iowa 8.2
Utah Arizona St. -2.4
Stanford USC -5.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Michigan St. 119.3 BTEN
2 Duke 119.1 ACC
3 Villanova 119.0 BIGE
4 Purdue 118.2 BTEN
5 Kansas 116.7 B12
6 Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
7 Texas Tech 114.8 B12
8 Virginia 114.7 ACC
9 North Carolina 114.4 ACC
10 Oklahoma 114.0 B12
11 Xavier 113.9 BIGE
12 West Virginia 113.9 B12
13 Wichita St. 113.8 AAC
14 Arizona 113.5 P12
15 Arkansas 112.9 SEC
16 Cincinnati 112.8 AAC
17 Arizona St. 112.8 P12
18 Creighton 112.7 BIGE
19 Notre Dame 112.1 ACC
20 TCU 111.9 B12
21 Florida St. 111.9 ACC
22 Seton Hall 111.5 BIGE
23 Saint Mary’s 111.3 WCC
24 Clemson 111.2 ACC
25 Florida 111.2 SEC

PiRate Ratings By Conference (multi-bid conferences only)

Team PiRate Conf.
Wichita St. 113.8 AAC
Cincinnati 112.8 AAC
SMU 110.2 AAC
Houston 108.8 AAC
Temple 105.4 AAC
UCF 103.4 AAC
Tulsa 102.1 AAC
Tulane 101.2 AAC
Connecticut 100.5 AAC
Memphis 97.7 AAC
South Florida 90.8 AAC
East Carolina 89.8 AAC
Duke 119.1 ACC
Virginia 114.7 ACC
North Carolina 114.4 ACC
Notre Dame 112.1 ACC
Florida St. 111.9 ACC
Clemson 111.2 ACC
Miami FL 109.9 ACC
Virginia Tech 108.9 ACC
Louisville 108.5 ACC
Syracuse 108.3 ACC
Wake Forest 106.3 ACC
Boston College 105.4 ACC
North Carolina St. 105.2 ACC
Georgia Tech 100.1 ACC
Pittsburgh 97.3 ACC
Kansas 116.7 B12
Texas Tech 114.8 B12
Oklahoma 114.0 B12
West Virginia 113.9 B12
TCU 111.9 B12
Baylor 109.5 B12
Texas 109.2 B12
Kansas St. 108.2 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.1 B12
Iowa St. 103.1 B12
Villanova 119.0 BIGE
Xavier 113.9 BIGE
Creighton 112.7 BIGE
Seton Hall 111.5 BIGE
Butler 109.7 BIGE
Marquette 108.4 BIGE
St. John’s 106.1 BIGE
Providence 105.7 BIGE
Georgetown 103.3 BIGE
DePaul 102.0 BIGE
Michigan St. 119.3 BTEN
Purdue 118.2 BTEN
Michigan 110.3 BTEN
Maryland 109.4 BTEN
Ohio St. 109.1 BTEN
Minnesota 108.9 BTEN
Penn St. 108.0 BTEN
Northwestern 106.3 BTEN
Wisconsin 105.2 BTEN
Iowa 105.2 BTEN
Illinois 104.6 BTEN
Nebraska 104.0 BTEN
Indiana 101.5 BTEN
Rutgers 100.8 BTEN
Nevada 110.9 MWC
Boise St. 107.4 MWC
San Diego St. 107.2 MWC
UNLV 106.9 MWC
Fresno St. 104.6 MWC
Wyoming 101.5 MWC
Utah St. 100.7 MWC
New Mexico 99.6 MWC
Colorado St. 96.6 MWC
Air Force 92.4 MWC
San Jose St. 91.8 MWC
Arizona 113.5 P12
Arizona St. 112.8 P12
USC 108.8 P12
Oregon 107.7 P12
UCLA 107.3 P12
Utah 106.4 P12
Washington 102.3 P12
Colorado 101.2 P12
Stanford 100.8 P12
Oregon St. 100.6 P12
Washington St. 99.8 P12
California 97.7 P12
Arkansas 112.9 SEC
Florida 111.2 SEC
Tennessee 111.0 SEC
Auburn 111.0 SEC
Kentucky 110.9 SEC
Texas A&M 110.8 SEC
Missouri 109.8 SEC
Alabama 107.9 SEC
LSU 106.2 SEC
Mississippi St. 105.3 SEC
Georgia 105.1 SEC
Vanderbilt 105.1 SEC
Mississippi 104.1 SEC
South Carolina 104.1 SEC
Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
Saint Mary’s 111.3 WCC
BYU 105.9 WCC
San Diego 101.4 WCC
San Francisco 99.7 WCC
Pacific 96.9 WCC
Loyola Marymount 95.2 WCC
Santa Clara 94.0 WCC
Pepperdine 93.0 WCC
Portland 92.6 WCC

This Week’s Estimate of Who’s In The Big Dance

Note–This is not our Bracketology Gurus report.  We expect that our gurus will begin sending us this data by the first of February.  Until then, this is our best guess as to who would be in the field if it began today.

America East

Vermont 1-0/10-5

American

Cincinnati 2-0/13-2

Wichita St. 2-0/12-2

SMU 2-1/12-4

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island 2-0/10-3

Atlantic Coast

Duke 1-1/13-1

North Carolina 1-1/12-3

Virginia  2-0/13-1

Miami (Fla.) 1-1/12-2

Clemson 2-0/13-1

Florida St. 1-1/12-2

Notre Dame 2-0/12-3

Louisville 1-0/11-3

Syracuse 1-1/12-3

Atlantic Sun

Florida Gulf Coast 0-0/9-8

Big 12

West Virginia 2-0/13-1

Oklahoma 2-0/12-1

Kansas 1-1/11-3

TCU 1-1/13-1

Texas Tech 2-0/13-1

Texas 1-1/10-4

Baylor 0-2/10-4

Big East

Xavier 3-0/15-1

Seton Hall 2-0/13-2

Villanova 1-1/13-1

Creighton 2-1/12-3

Butler 2-1/12-4

Big Sky

Montana 3-0/10-5

Big South

Radford 2-0/9-6

Big Ten

Michigan St. 3-0/15-1

Purdue 3-0/14-2

Ohio St. 3-0/12-4

Michigan 2-1/13-3

Minnesota 2-1/13-3

Maryland 2-2/13-4

Big West

UC-Davis 1-0/10-5

Colonial

Charleston 2-0/11-3

Conference USA

Middle Tennessee 2-0/10-4

Horizon

Northern Kentucky 2-0/9-5

Ivy

Pennsylvania 0-0/9-5

Metro Atlantic

Canisius 2-0/8-7

Mid-American

Central Michigan 1-0/12-2

Mideastern Athletic

UNC-Central 1-0/7-8

Missouri Valley

Missouri St. 3-0/13-3

Mountain West

Nevada 3-0/14-3

Boise St. 3-0/13-2

Northeast

Robert Morris 3-0/9-7

Ohio Valley

Belmont 3-0/11-5

Pac-12

Arizona 2-0/12-3

Arizona St. 0-2/12-2

UCLA 2-1/11-4

USC 2-1/11-5

Patriot

Navy 1-1/10-5

Southeastern

Kentucky 2-0/12-2

Florida 2-0/10-4

Auburn 1-0/13-1

Texas A&M 0-2/11-3

Arkansas 1-1/11-3

Missouri 1-0/11-3

Mississippi St. 1-0/13-1

Southern

UNC-Greensboro 1-0/10-4

Southland

Stephen F. Austin 1-1/12-3

Southwestern Athletic

Jackson St. 2-0/5-10

Summit

South Dakota 2-0/14-4

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette 3-0/13-3

West Coast

Gonzaga 3-0/13-3

Saint Mary’s 3-0/14-2

Western Athletic

New Mexico St. 0-0/12-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Iowa
Minnesota Illinois
#2 @ +169  
Must Win Must Lose
Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette
Notre Dame USC
LSU Ole Miss
#3 @ +127  
Must Win Must Lose
Houston Memphis
Penn St. Michigan
#4 @ +132  
Must Win Must Lose
UAB Charlotte
Purdue Rutgers
Duke Pittsburgh

Good luck.  You’ll need it if you play our parlays.  Shame on you if you wager the paper that they say is real money on these selections.  If you want to gift away $400, you can send it to my Patreon page.

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

September 28, 2017

Is It Time For The Professional University Football League?

Many times in the last quarter century, multiple sports professionals have bantered about having one super conference in college sports. Media members, former athletic administrators and others have discussed what might happen if the largest financially successful athletic programs drop all pretenses and secede from the NCAA, forming their own professional college league.

The PiRates have always believed in amateur athletics, but at this point, it is hard to keep the amateur in high school athletics, where you have football and basketball factory high schools all over the country.

Maybe the time has come for the big boys to leave the supposedly amateur NCAA and form a new entity. The time may be the most ideal since the thought first became public.

With the NFL potentially crippled for the near term and maybe never again to experience the heights it enjoyed since it surpassed baseball circa 1969, when the Major Leagues divided into divisions, meaning the two best teams did not always play in the World Series, and when Joe Namath made that Super Bowl III guarantee.

Add to this the current FBI probe that has already brought down Rick Pitino and many assistant coaches and may eventually lead to some top schools landing in serious trouble. Recruiting the 5-star athletes leads to all sorts of dirty underhanded dealing.

The fix would be for the 32 biggest football factories to leave the NCAA and form their own professional league of universities.

What we call the PUFL (Professional University Football League) could take these 32 great teams with the gragantuan football stadiums and divide into eight divisions of four teams each. The league could play a 16-game schedule with a couple of pre-season games, and then 12 teams would make the playoffs, leading up to the College Super Bowl, or whatever they might call it.

Instead of recruiting and signing players who would enroll in college as students, the players would be reclassified as employees and would not go to school as students. There would be a draft similar to the early days of the American Football League. Certain players living near a campus could be reserved and signed by the school in their area, but only a small amount. The remainder of the top talent could be drafted and signed to a 3-year contract. The draft would run for 16 rounds, and each drafted player would be guaranteed a 3-year contract.  After the third year, players could move on to the NFL or sign a new 1-year contract and remain employed with the college.  An option could be that the player could become a free agent after three years and sign with another college.

After 16 rounds, the schools could then sign free agent high school talents in order to fill out a 60-man roster. With 60 players under contract for 3-year contracts, each school would then have a salary cap of $6 million. That would mean the average player would make $100,000 per year. There would be no need to have boosters paying recruits to receive under the table payments, because the top 512 players would belong to the team that drafted them (16 draft rounds of 32 teams).

The $6 million in salaries would more than be made up by added revenue from a television contract that would dwarf today’s current NCAA contract. All the major networks might want to participate. With 16 games a week, all 16 games could be televised nationally. The ratings would go through the roof, and the schools could make much more money than they currently do.

The Big Ten and SEC schools currently receive around $30-40 million from their networks.  According to the Green Bay Packers’ financial records, each NFL team received $244 million in TV revenue in 2016. We believe the PUFL teams could top that and maybe receive $300-500 million a year! The college game has the potential to do to the NFL what the NFL did to all other sports. This might be the time to strike, while the NFL has a serious wound that worsens daily, and while some current basketball personnel may be soon wearing a uniform with stripes for 2 to 5 years.

This is our offering for the 32 teams

Eastern Division
Maryland
Penn St.
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

Mideast Division
Michigan
Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Ohio St.

Midwest Division
Iowa
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Wisconsin

Lower South Division
Clemson
Florida
Florida St.
Miami

Upper South Division
Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
Tennessee

Southwest Division
Arkansas
LSU
Texas
Texas A&M

Upper West Division
California
Oregon
Utah
Washington

Lower West Division
Arizona St.
San Diego St.
UCLA
USC

Imagine it is Thanksgiving Day. In the early morning, Ohio State and Michigan can play. A little later, Alabama and Auburn would square off. After this game kicks off, Nebraska and Oklahoma would begin, followed by Texas and Texas A&M. Then in the late afternoon, Washington and Oregon would play, followed by UCLA and USC in the late game. Because teams in the same division would play twice a year, you could easily stage the second game on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Or, you could add other potential bonanza games like USC-Notre Dame, Texas-Arkansas, Penn State-West Virginia, LSU-Alabama, Florida-Florida State, or Clemson-Georgia.

If fans will pay $50+ to see Alabama and Fresno State or Ohio State and UNLV in non-conference games, how much might an Alabama-Oklahoma or a Ohio State-USC game command?

Think about TV ratings. Rather than have to stick with a 59-0 massacre, CBS would not have to worry about a terrible mismatch like Alabama pasting Vanderbilt. With an annual draft of the top players, Alabama or anybody else would not be 59 points better than another opponent. In fact, Alabama fans would have to deal with seasons where 12-4 records might be the best they can expect. Some current power might be hung with a string of losing seasons rather than suffer through a 7-win rebuilding season with three or four wins over the little sisters of the poor.

What would happen to all the other schools? Do you really think these big behemoths would care all that much? The other schools would have to make do with what was left over. Maybe, they could return to educating first with athletics becoming more of a real amateur competition. Would a leftover school really try to go after the 700th best athlete by throwing money at him? Would the shoe companies or some Nationwide Ned try to broker players to schools, when all the 4 and 5-star athletes would be off limits to them?

It could lead to new Ivy League type conferences. Duke, Northwestern, Stanford, Army, Navy, Air Force, Vanderbilt, Tulane, and Rice could form a league and bring back some of the former football greats of the past that once played major college football, like Fordham. These schools could team up with the current Ivy League and Patriot League and form their own alliance of teams that put academics first ahead of athletics.

September 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 21-23, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:15 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
South Florida Temple 18.3 15.9 19.4
Boise St. Virginia 5.1 3.0 3.2
Arizona Utah -3.6 -6.7 -5.6
Appalachian St. Wake Forest -6.1 -7.6 -5.5
North Carolina Duke 2.7 2.8 2.6
Purdue Michigan -11.7 -9.6 -10.2
Georgia Tech Pittsburgh 10.8 8.0 9.5
Iowa Penn St. -14.3 -12.2 -15.6
Clemson Boston College 36.5 31.9 36.8
Florida St. North Carolina St. 16.5 14.8 16.1
Georgia Mississippi St. 7.7 8.2 7.3
South Carolina Louisiana Tech 22.1 20.1 20.2
Tennessee Massachusetts 31.5 30.3 29.8
Kansas West Virginia -18.4 -15.9 -19.0
Kentucky Florida 0.5 -0.1 1.0
Maryland Central Florida 5.9 6.0 5.1
Louisville Kent St. 37.5 34.8 36.7
Eastern Michigan Ohio U 6.9 4.7 6.0
Central Michigan Miami (O) 1.3 -0.8 -0.4
Virginia Tech Old Dominion 31.1 27.6 31.1
Charlotte Georgia St. -6.7 -3.4 -6.1
Indiana Georgia Southern 28.1 26.8 28.9
Buffalo Florida Atlantic 2.1 1.5 3.0
Nebraska Rutgers 6.9 8.6 6.4
Miami (Fla.) Toledo 22.0 19.7 19.5
Colorado Washington -12.3 -10.9 -15.2
New Mexico St. UTEP 18.0 11.4 16.8
Navy Cincinnati 11.2 9.9 9.4
Ohio St. UNLV 44.7 39.0 43.5
Michigan St. Notre Dame -11.7 -6.4 -11.1
Wyoming Hawaii 11.2 7.5 9.8
Tulsa New Mexico 14.0 13.2 13.6
LSU Syracuse 11.2 11.2 12.7
Troy Akron 14.1 10.5 13.6
Middle Tennessee Bowling Green 14.3 14.4 14.0
Missouri Auburn -21.3 -21.8 -22.2
Houston Texas Tech 4.6 3.7 5.6
SMU Arkansas St. 10.8 9.4 9.4
Vanderbilt Alabama -18.3 -15.4 -17.8
Tulane Army 0.7 1.5 0.1
Oklahoma St. TCU 14.2 15.1 15.7
Western Kentucky Ball St. 17.8 14.3 17.4
North Texas UAB 20.3 17.0 18.3
Texas St. UTSA -19.2 -18.0 -22.4
Air Force San Diego St. -6.3 -6.0 -7.2
Texas A&M Arkansas 1.1 -0.5 -0.1
Rice Florida Int’l. 0.1 0.9 -0.7
South Alabama Idaho 4.9 5.6 4.1
UL-Lafayette UL-Monroe 5.4 6.3 6.7
Baylor Oklahoma -25.9 -21.3 -27.2
California USC -16.4 -18.4 -18.2
Washington St. Nevada 36.0 30.2 33.2
Arizona St. Oregon -11.0 -7.1 -11.2
Stanford UCLA 9.8 9.2 9.3
San Jose St. Utah St. 0.3 0.8 0.5
Connecticut East Carolina 6.6 7.9 7.5
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Coastal Carolina Western Illinois 5
Western Michigan Wagner 40
Memphis Southern Illinois 26

Same Two Again?
With Clemson’s dominating win at Louisville, our ratings now show the top two teams from last year resuming the top two spots again this season. For now, Alabama stays ahead of Clemson in our ratings, but internally, our Retrodictive Ratings show that Clemson is less than .2 point behind the Tide and just .5 point behind ‘Bama in the Predictive Ratings.

Who at this point looks like the best contenders for the other two Playoff spots? Oklahoma figures in as a high contender, but then so does Oklahoma State. If either runs the table, they are in. Out west, Washington and USC hold the top two spots, but Washington State, Utah, and Colorado are still in contention, as is a Dark Horse Cal Bears team.

In the Big Ten, Penn State has the look of a team that can go into the Horseshoe and do the same thing to Ohio State that Oklahoma did. Michigan is chugging along but looks to be missing something and probably cannot run the table. Ohio State is still in the Big Ten race, but to make the Playoffs now, the Buckeyes must start winning consistently and take out all Big Ten foes. In the West, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota are in contention but any of these teams will have to run the table to make it to the Final Four.

Aside from the Crimson Tide, Georgia and Mississippi State have chances to earn a playoff spot. The two Bulldogs face off in what has become a very important contest on Saturday.

Top Group of 5 Teams
Two teams appear to be at the top of the list for the Group of 5 Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid, but there are plenty of contenders, and it is much too early to call any one team convincingly ahead of the rest.

South Florida has had a little difficulty early in their games, but once the Bulls get on track, they play competently enough to run the table and earn that NY6 Bowl. San Diego State actually has a bigger win, having just knocked off Stanford, but the Aztecs still have a difficult couple of games to take the bid. Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Toledo, and Navy are the top contenders for now.

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

(like a poll based on what they have done to date)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Oklahoma
5 USC
6 Penn St.
7 LSU
8 Ohio St.
9 Oklahoma St.
10 Wisconsin
11 Michigan
12 Miami (Fla)
13 Georgia
14 Louisville
15 Florida St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Mississippi St.
18 TCU
19 Auburn
20 Stanford
21 Utah
22 Washington St.
23 Iowa
24 Florida
25 Colorado
26 Kansas St.
27 Tennessee
28 Minnesota
29 Houston
30 San Diego St.
31 South Florida
32 Georgia Tech
33 Wake Forest
34 Oregon
35 Notre Dame
36 Vanderbilt
37 West Virginia
38 Boise St.
39 Toledo
40 Duke
41 Kentucky
42 Michigan St.
43 South Carolina
44 UCLA
45 Maryland
46 California
47 Texas A&M
48 North Carolina St.
49 Memphis
50 Northwestern
51 Navy
52 Texas
53 Western Michigan
54 Texas Tech
55 Tulsa
56 Arkansas
57 North Carolina
58 Air Force
59 Ole Miss
60 Pittsburgh
61 Nebraska
62 Colorado St.
63 Appalachian St.
64 Central Florida
65 Temple
66 Purdue
67 UTSA
68 Iowa St.
69 Indiana
70 Arizona
71 Northern Illinois
72 Army
73 Troy
74 Louisiana Tech
75 Arkansas St.
76 Western Kentucky
77 SMU
78 BYU
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Syracuse
81 Southern Miss.
82 Boston College
83 Old Dominion
84 Illinois
85 Tulane
86 Cincinnati
87 Virginia
88 Ohio
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Arizona St.
91 Wyoming
92 New Mexico
93 Baylor
94 Central Michigan
95 Marshall
96 Missouri
97 Oregon St.
98 Rutgers
99 Miami (O)
100 Hawaii
101 Ball St.
102 Idaho
103 UL-Lafayette
104 Coastal Carolina
105 Utah St.
106 New Mexico St.
107 Akron
108 South Alabama
109 North Texas
110 Fresno St.
111 Buffalo
112 Connecticut
113 Nevada
114 UAB
115 Georgia Southern
116 UL-Monroe
117 San Jose St.
118 Kansas
119 Rice
120 UNLV
121 East Carolina
122 Kent St.
123 Florida Atlantic
124 Florida Int’l.
125 Bowling Green
126 Georgia St.
127 UTEP
128 Texas St.
129 Massachusetts
130 Charlotte

PiRate Predictive Ratings

(tries to predict the outcome of the next game on each team’s schedule)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 132.2 127.6 131.0 130.3
2 Clemson 131.2 127.6 130.7 129.8
3 Ohio St. 129.2 126.5 128.5 128.1
4 Oklahoma 128.1 125.9 129.1 127.7
5 Washington 128.4 125.0 129.1 127.5
6 Penn St. 127.7 125.5 128.5 127.2
7 Oklahoma St. 126.1 124.4 127.6 126.0
8 Florida St. 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
9 Auburn 122.7 120.6 122.5 121.9
10 Wisconsin 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
11 U S C 120.8 120.3 120.9 120.7
12 Virginia Tech 118.3 117.5 118.9 118.2
13 Miami 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
14 Georgia 116.7 117.9 116.8 117.1
15 Stanford 116.6 115.2 115.8 115.9
16 Washington St. 117.0 114.3 116.1 115.8
17 Michigan 116.2 115.8 115.4 115.8
18 Louisville 116.0 114.7 116.0 115.6
19 L S U 115.5 113.7 116.2 115.1
20 Florida 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
21 Kansas St. 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
22 T C U 114.9 112.3 114.9 114.0
23 Texas 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
24 N. Carolina St. 113.4 113.1 113.1 113.2
25 Oregon 114.3 110.8 113.6 112.9
26 Notre Dame 113.3 111.5 113.6 112.8
27 Mississippi St. 112.1 112.7 112.5 112.4
28 Kentucky 113.0 111.5 112.7 112.4
29 Colorado 113.1 111.1 110.9 111.7
30 Georgia Tech 113.1 110.6 111.1 111.6
31 Tennessee 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
32 Iowa 110.4 110.3 109.9 110.2
33 Vanderbilt 110.9 109.2 110.2 110.1
34 N. Carolina 110.8 109.7 109.3 109.9
35 South Florida 109.9 108.2 110.9 109.7
36 Northwestern 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
37 U C L A 109.8 109.0 109.5 109.4
38 West Virginia 109.1 109.9 109.1 109.4
39 Minnesota 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
40 Duke 109.6 108.4 108.2 108.7
41 Utah 106.6 108.7 107.0 107.4
42 S. Carolina 107.6 106.8 106.6 107.0
43 Arkansas 106.7 106.2 106.5 106.5
44 Syracuse 107.2 105.6 106.5 106.4
45 Maryland 105.6 107.7 105.7 106.3
46 Wake Forest 106.7 105.8 106.3 106.2
47 Indiana 105.0 105.1 105.4 105.2
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 105.6 104.6 105.2
49 Memphis 105.3 104.1 105.5 104.9
50 Ole Miss 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
51 Houston 105.0 103.9 104.9 104.6
52 Colo. State 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
53 Texas A&M 104.8 102.7 103.4 103.6
54 Iowa State 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
55 Central Florida 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
56 San Diego St. 103.1 103.0 104.2 103.4
57 Texas Tech 102.9 102.7 101.8 102.5
58 Tulsa 102.6 102.0 102.7 102.4
59 Purdue 101.5 103.2 102.2 102.3
60 Nebraska 100.6 102.3 99.6 100.8
61 Virginia 100.2 100.3 101.6 100.7
62 Boise St. 101.4 99.3 100.8 100.5
63 Arizona St. 100.4 100.7 99.4 100.2
64 Toledo 99.6 99.6 101.3 100.2
65 Michigan St. 98.6 102.0 99.5 100.0
66 California 101.4 98.9 99.6 100.0
67 Baylor 99.2 101.6 98.9 99.9
68 Navy 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
69 Arizona 100.0 99.0 98.4 99.1
70 Western Michigan 99.2 97.4 100.5 99.0
71 BYU 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
72 Boston College 97.7 98.7 96.9 97.8
73 Appalachian St. 98.0 95.7 98.3 97.3
74 SMU 97.1 97.3 97.4 97.3
75 Missouri 98.4 95.9 97.2 97.2
76 Army 96.5 96.0 97.4 96.6
77 Rutgers 96.7 96.7 96.2 96.5
78 U T S A 94.4 96.1 96.6 95.7
79 Temple 94.6 95.3 94.5 94.8
80 Wyoming 95.8 93.7 94.4 94.6
81 Eastern Michigan 94.6 94.2 94.5 94.4
82 Tulane 94.2 94.5 94.5 94.4
83 W. Kentucky 94.1 93.0 95.3 94.1
84 Air Force 93.7 94.1 94.0 93.9
85 Miami (O) 92.1 94.6 94.0 93.6
86 Troy 93.7 93.8 92.9 93.5
87 Middle Tennessee 92.2 92.7 92.7 92.5
88 Cincinnati 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
89 Oregon St. 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
90 New Mexico 91.6 91.8 92.1 91.8
91 Illinois 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
92 Central Michigan 90.9 91.3 91.1 91.1
93 Ohio U 90.2 92.0 91.0 91.1
94 Arkansas St. 89.3 90.9 91.0 90.4
95 Old Dominion 89.2 91.9 89.7 90.3
96 Northern Illinois 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
97 Louisiana Tech 88.5 89.7 89.4 89.2
98 Hawaii 88.6 90.2 88.6 89.1
99 Kansas 87.7 91.0 87.1 88.6
100 U N L V 87.5 90.4 87.9 88.6
101 Fresno St. 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
102 Southern Miss. 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
103 Connecticut 86.4 89.5 87.0 87.6
104 Marshall 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
105 N. Mexico St. 87.1 84.7 86.6 86.1
106 Nevada 84.0 87.1 86.0 85.7
107 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.4 85.2 85.6
108 S. Alabama 84.5 87.4 84.7 85.5
109 Utah St. 86.0 85.1 85.0 85.4
110 Buffalo 83.2 85.9 85.2 84.8
111 UL-Lafayette 84.2 85.5 84.0 84.6
112 Idaho 83.2 85.3 84.1 84.2
113 Akron 82.6 86.3 82.4 83.8
114 N. Texas 82.7 84.1 82.8 83.2
115 Massachusetts 83.5 82.7 83.4 83.2
116 San Jose St. 83.3 82.9 82.5 82.9
117 East Carolina 82.3 84.2 82.0 82.8
118 Georgia St. 83.0 82.2 82.8 82.7
119 Kent St. 81.5 82.9 82.3 82.2
120 Florida Int’l. 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
121 UL-Monroe 81.2 81.7 79.8 80.9
122 Bowling Green 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
123 Georgia Southern 79.9 81.2 79.5 80.2
124 Ball St. 78.8 81.2 80.4 80.1
125 Rice 78.8 79.8 79.0 79.2
126 Charlotte 74.3 76.9 74.7 75.3
127 Coastal Carolina 73.5 74.9 75.2 74.6
128 Texas St. 73.2 76.0 72.2 73.8
129 U T E P 71.6 75.8 72.2 73.2
130 UAB 65.4 70.1 67.5 67.7

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 0-0 3-0 109.9 108.2 110.9 109.7
Central Florida 0-0 1-0 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
Temple 0-0 2-1 94.6 95.3 94.5 94.8
Cincinnati 0-0 2-1 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
Connecticut 0-0 1-1 86.4 89.5 87.0 87.6
East Carolina 0-0 0-3 82.3 84.2 82.0 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 2-0 105.3 104.1 105.5 104.9
Houston 0-0 2-0 105.0 103.9 104.9 104.6
Tulsa 0-0 1-2 102.6 102.0 102.7 102.4
Navy 1-0 2-0 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
SMU 0-0 2-1 97.1 97.3 97.4 97.3
Tulane 0-1 1-2 94.2 94.5 94.5 94.4
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 3-0 131.2 127.6 130.7 129.8
Florida St. 0-0 0-1 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
Louisville 1-1 2-2 116.0 114.7 116.0 115.6
N. Carolina St. 0-0 2-1 113.4 113.1 113.1 113.2
Syracuse 0-0 2-1 107.2 105.6 106.5 106.4
Wake Forest 1-0 3-0 106.7 105.8 106.3 106.2
Boston College 0-1 1-2 97.7 98.7 96.9 97.8
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 0-0 3-0 118.3 117.5 118.9 118.2
Miami 0-0 1-0 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
Georgia Tech 0-0 1-1 113.1 110.6 111.1 111.6
N. Carolina 0-1 1-2 110.8 109.7 109.3 109.9
Duke 0-0 3-0 109.6 108.4 108.2 108.7
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-2 105.3 105.6 104.6 105.2
Virginia 0-0 2-1 100.2 100.3 101.6 100.7
             
ACC Averages     112.5 111.3 111.9 111.9
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 0-0 3-0 128.1 125.9 129.1 127.7
Oklahoma St. 0-0 3-0 126.1 124.4 127.6 126.0
Kansas St. 0-0 2-1 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
T C U 0-0 3-0 114.9 112.3 114.9 114.0
Texas 0-0 1-2 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
West Virginia 0-0 2-1 109.1 109.9 109.1 109.4
Iowa State 0-0 2-1 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
Texas Tech 0-0 2-0 102.9 102.7 101.8 102.5
Baylor 0-0 0-3 99.2 101.6 98.9 99.9
Kansas 0-0 1-2 87.7 91.0 87.1 88.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 2-1 129.2 126.5 128.5 128.1
Penn St. 0-0 3-0 127.7 125.5 128.5 127.2
Michigan 0-0 3-0 116.2 115.8 115.4 115.8
Maryland 0-0 2-0 105.6 107.7 105.7 106.3
Indiana 0-1 1-1 105.0 105.1 105.4 105.2
Michigan St. 0-0 2-0 98.6 102.0 99.5 100.0
Rutgers 0-0 1-2 96.7 96.7 96.2 96.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 3-0 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
Iowa 0-0 3-0 110.4 110.3 109.9 110.2
Northwestern 0-0 2-1 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-0 3-0 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
Purdue 0-0 2-1 101.5 103.2 102.2 102.3
Nebraska 0-0 1-2 100.6 102.3 99.6 100.8
Illinois 0-0 2-1 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
             
Big Ten Averages     109.0 108.9 108.7 108.9
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 1-2 94.1 93.0 95.3 94.1
Middle Tennessee 0-0 1-2 92.2 92.7 92.7 92.5
Old Dominion 0-0 2-1 89.2 91.9 89.7 90.3
Marshall 0-0 2-1 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-2 84.1 87.4 85.2 85.6
Florida Int’l. 0-0 1-1 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
Charlotte 0-0 0-3 74.3 76.9 74.7 75.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 2-0 94.4 96.1 96.6 95.7
Louisiana Tech 1-0 2-1 88.5 89.7 89.4 89.2
Southern Miss. 0-0 2-1 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
N. Texas 0-0 1-2 82.7 84.1 82.8 83.2
Rice 1-0 1-2 78.8 79.8 79.0 79.2
U T E P 0-1 0-3 71.6 75.8 72.2 73.2
UAB 0-0 2-1 65.4 70.1 67.5 67.7
             
CUSA Averages     83.6 85.4 84.4 84.5
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   2-1 113.3 111.5 113.6 112.8
BYU   1-3 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
Army   2-1 96.5 96.0 97.4 96.6
Massachusetts   0-4 83.5 82.7 83.4 83.2
             
Indep. Averages     98.0 97.1 98.4 97.8
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 0-0 1-2 92.1 94.6 94.0 93.6
Ohio U 0-0 2-1 90.2 92.0 91.0 91.1
Buffalo 0-0 1-2 83.2 85.9 85.2 84.8
Akron 0-0 1-2 82.6 86.3 82.4 83.8
Kent St. 0-0 1-2 81.5 82.9 82.3 82.2
Bowling Green 0-0 0-3 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 3-0 99.6 99.6 101.3 100.2
Western Michigan 0-0 1-2 99.2 97.4 100.5 99.0
Eastern Michigan 0-0 2-0 94.6 94.2 94.5 94.4
Central Michigan 0-0 2-1 90.9 91.3 91.1 91.1
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
Ball St. 0-0 2-1 78.8 81.2 80.4 80.1
             
MAC Averages     88.5 89.6 89.5 89.2
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 2-2 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
Boise St. 1-0 2-1 101.4 99.3 100.8 100.5
Wyoming 0-0 1-2 95.8 93.7 94.4 94.6
Air Force 0-0 1-1 93.7 94.1 94.0 93.9
New Mexico 0-1 1-2 91.6 91.8 92.1 91.8
Utah St. 0-0 1-2 86.0 85.1 85.0 85.4
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 3-0 103.1 103.0 104.2 103.4
Hawaii 0-0 2-1 88.6 90.2 88.6 89.1
U N L V 0-0 1-1 87.5 90.4 87.9 88.6
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
Nevada 0-0 0-3 84.0 87.1 86.0 85.7
San Jose St. 0-0 1-3 83.3 82.9 82.5 82.9
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.3 92.4 92.4
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 0-0 3-0 128.4 125.0 129.1 127.5
Stanford 0-1 1-2 116.6 115.2 115.8 115.9
Washington St. 1-0 3-0 117.0 114.3 116.1 115.8
Oregon 0-0 3-0 114.3 110.8 113.6 112.9
California 0-0 3-0 101.4 98.9 99.6 100.0
Oregon St. 0-1 1-3 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 1-0 3-0 120.8 120.3 120.9 120.7
Colorado 0-0 3-0 113.1 111.1 110.9 111.7
U C L A 0-0 2-1 109.8 109.0 109.5 109.4
Utah 0-0 3-0 106.6 108.7 107.0 107.4
Arizona St. 0-0 1-2 100.4 100.7 99.4 100.2
Arizona 0-0 2-1 100.0 99.0 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 3-0 116.7 117.9 116.8 117.1
Florida 1-0 1-1 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
Kentucky 1-0 3-0 113.0 111.5 112.7 112.4
Tennessee 0-1 2-1 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
Vanderbilt 0-0 3-0 110.9 109.2 110.2 110.1
S. Carolina 1-1 2-1 107.6 106.8 106.6 107.0
Missouri 0-1 1-2 98.4 95.9 97.2 97.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 0-0 3-0 132.2 127.6 131.0 130.3
Auburn 0-0 2-1 122.7 120.6 122.5 121.9
L S U 0-1 2-1 115.5 113.7 116.2 115.1
Mississippi St. 1-0 3-0 112.1 112.7 112.5 112.4
Arkansas 0-0 1-1 106.7 106.2 106.5 106.5
Ole Miss 0-0 2-1 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
Texas A&M 0-0 2-1 104.8 102.7 103.4 103.6
             
SEC Averages     112.4 111.0 111.8 111.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-1 98.0 95.7 98.3 97.3
Troy 1-0 2-1 93.7 93.8 92.9 93.5
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-1 89.3 90.9 91.0 90.4
N. Mexico St. 0-1 1-2 87.1 84.7 86.6 86.1
S. Alabama 0-0 1-2 84.5 87.4 84.7 85.5
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-2 84.2 85.5 84.0 84.6
Idaho 0-0 1-2 83.2 85.3 84.1 84.2
Georgia St. 0-0 0-2 83.0 82.2 82.8 82.7
UL-Monroe 0-0 0-2 81.2 81.7 79.8 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-2 79.9 81.2 79.5 80.2
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-1 73.5 74.9 75.2 74.6
Texas St. 0-1 1-2 73.2 76.0 72.2 73.8
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 85.0 84.3 84.5

Conference Ratings
Thanks to Wake Forest, Virgnia Tech, Syracuse, and North Carolina State improving with non-conference wins, while Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri sunk after so-so non-conference performances, the ACC overtook the SEC by a tiny bit for top conference. There are only three points separating the Power 5 conferences after three weeks of the season.

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.5 111.3 111.9 111.9
2 SEC 112.4 111.0 111.8 111.7
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 109.0 108.9 108.7 108.9
6 INDEP. 98.0 97.1 98.4 97.8
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.4 92.3 92.4 92.4
9 MAC 88.5 89.6 89.5 89.2
10 Sun Belt 84.2 85.0 84.3 84.5
11 CUSA 83.6 85.4 84.4 84.5

Bowl Projections Debut in October

September 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 7-9, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:51 pm

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Purdue Ohio U 8.3 8.7 8.1
South Alabama Oklahoma St. -34.5 -30.2 -36.1
Wisconsin Florida Atlantic 44.7 37.0 42.2
Army Buffalo 16.7 12.9 15.6
Michigan St. Western Michigan -5.2 2.7 -6.3
Rutgers Eastern Michigan 7.1 6.5 6.2
Massachusetts Old Dominion -4.5 -8.3 -5.3
Duke Northwestern -2.7 -2.0 -4.0
Connecticut South Florida -20.3 -15.3 -20.9
West Virginia East Carolina 24.3 24.0 24.2
Michigan Cincinnati 32.3 28.4 30.0
North Carolina Louisville -3.8 -4.4 -5.8
Kansas St. Charlotte 42.2 38.9 42.1
Iowa St. Iowa -9.3 -7.3 -8.3
Boston College Wake Forest 2.3 3.7 2.5
New Mexico New Mexico St. 8.6 11.8 10.4
UTEP Rice -0.6 2.9 0.4
Colorado Texas St. 47.4 40.6 46.6
Ball St. UAB 17.2 13.8 16.4
Syracuse Middle Tennessee 23.7 20.4 21.7
Virginia Indiana -2.4 -2.5 -1.4
Penn St. Pittsburgh 19.4 17.1 20.9
Alabama Fresno St. 48.8 45.5 47.8
Navy Tulane 8.1 8.6 7.6
Illinois Western Kentucky -7.0 -2.5 -10.4
Baylor UTSA 12.6 13.3 10.3
UCLA Hawaii 23.3 20.5 22.6
Kansas Central Michigan 5.4 8.6 4.3
Oregon Nebraska 10.2 5.1 9.8
Arkansas St. Miami (Fla.) -26.1 -22.2 -23.6
Texas San Jose St. 25.8 28.0 26.5
Arkansas TCU 0.8 3.3 1.1
Tulsa UL-Lafayette 21.5 18.4 21.6
North Carolina St. Marshall 35.2 32.7 33.8
Nevada Toledo -10.5 -6.8 -9.8
Florida St. UL-Monroe 48.1 45.8 48.9
Missouri South Carolina 1.3 -1.9 0.8
SMU North Texas 17.6 16.1 17.9
Clemson Auburn 7.4 5.7 6.6
Notre Dame Georgia -2.2 -5.4 -2.2
Louisiana Tech Mississippi St. -12.0 -11.0 -11.4
Ohio St. Oklahoma 11.6 10.5 9.8
Central Florida Memphis 0.8 3.8 1.3
USC Stanford 2.9 5.0 4.2
Idaho UNLV 5.9 5.3 6.3
Oregon St. Minnesota -4.1 -4.5 -5.4
Arizona St. San Diego St. 5.9 4.9 3.0
BYU Utah -2.8 -6.6 -2.6
Arizona Houston -2.3 -2.4 -4.6
Washington St. Boise St. 23.4 21.8 23.3

FBS vs. FCS Games

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Utah St. Idaho St. 25
Florida Northern Colorado 40
Kentucky Eastern Kentucky 30
LSU Chattanooga 40
Ole Miss UT-Martin 30
Tennessee Indiana St. 37
Vanderbilt Alabama A&M 45
Colorado St. Abilene Christian 37
Wyoming Gardner-Webb 29
Florida Int’l. Alcorn St. 15
Maryland Towson 33
Georgia Tech Jacksonville St. 18
Temple Villanova 19
Appalachian St. Savannah St. 46
Miami (O) Austin Peay 24
Northern Illinois Eastern Illinois 20
Kent St. Howard 22
Virginia Tech Delaware 41
California Weber St. 29
Georgia Southern New Hampshire 11
Troy Alabama St. 35
Bowling Green South Dakota 5
Southern Miss. Southern U 23
Texas A&M Nicholls St. 38
Akron Ark.-Pine Bluff 42
Washington Montana 41

Is this really just week two of the college football season? Normally, in week two, you get 40 FBS vs. FCS games on the schedule. You get the Big Ten playing the MAC; other Power 5 teams playing the weakest Group of 5 teams they can schedule if they didn’t get a FCS patsy. At best, you might get one or two marquee matchups and maybe a couple of okay conference games.
There are 26 FBS vs. FCS contests this week, but even a couple of those might now be interesting after Howard upset UNLV, Liberty knocked off Baylor, Tennessee State beat Georgia State, and James Madison took out East Carolina. There are a half dozen FCS teams this week that have a legitimate chance to beat an FBS team, led by South Dakota, which might even be favored over Bowling Green when the extra lines are released later this week.
There are some Power 5 vs. Group of 5 patsy games on the schedule, but there are a few that could become upsets, like Ohio at Purdue, Western Michigan at Michigan State, Eastern Michigan at Rutgers, Western Kentucky at Illinois, Central Michigan at Kansas, San Diego State at Arizona State, Houston at Arizona, and Boise State at Washington State. There are actually two Group of 5 teams hosting Power 5 teams. Mississippi State risks humility at tough Louisiana Tech, while Utah plays at rival BYU.
Ah, but now we get to the marquee games. There are enough to make this look more like the Saturday before Thanksgiving than week two. We have broken the slate down into great expectation contests and important other contests to preview this week.
Great Expectations
Pittsburgh at Penn State: We know James Franklin. We know that James Franklin has been reminding his Nittany Lions what Pitt did to PSU last year. We know Penn State has the talent to run the table and earn a playoff spot this year, while Pittsburgh may be about the same as last year. The Panthers also knocked off Clemson, so Coach Pat Narduzzi may be the new giant killer in college football, along the lines of Jack Curtice and Al Onofrio and Warren Powers at Missouri in past times. While the Nittany Lions should be considered rather heavy favorites in this one, it will be worth watching.

TCU at Arkansas: This was a great game last year, with Arkansas winning by 3 in overtime. The Big 12 needs a signature win in a hurry, and the league will get multiple opportunities to pull off a big win. Both teams looked dominant in wins over FCS foes last week, and those games served as fine dress rehearsals for this one. TCU’s Kenny Hill could be the difference in this one if his team is to win. Arkansas looks similar to the last two years, maybe a tad stronger, so this game should be close once again.

Auburn at Clemson: Trivia question with an obvious answer: In last year’s national championship run, only one opponent held Clemson under 20 points. Obviously, since it is brought up here, the answer is Auburn. That Auburn team did not have a lot of offense, and they kept it close, losing 19-13. This Auburn team has a powerful offense, and the defense is about as good as it was last year. Meanwhile, Clemson looks to have reloaded rather than rebuilt. This game could be more like a “quarterfinal round” game in the NCAA Playoffs. If you watch just one game this week, we’d select this one by a hair over a couple others. But, hey, you are going to take care of your Saturday chores and errands really early, so you can watch every single one of these games, aren’t you? We know you. We know your kind–we see it when we look in the mirror.

Georgia at Notre Dame: For a short time Saturday, it looked like Georgia had moved from a co-favorite to win the SEC East to the outright favorite after Florida’s offense forgot the object of the game is to move the ball toward the other team’s goal. Then, quarterback Jacob Eason took a beating near the sideline and was lost for the remainder of the game with a knee sprain. He is definitely out this week, and it isn’t a sure thing he will be back by September 23, when the Bulldogs play their first SEC game against the other Bulldogs, Mississippi State. Notre Dame easily dismissed Temple last week, which means they are better this year than last. How much better is still to be determined. If they are considerably better, the Irish need to win this big home game. If they are only a little better, they will look like Florida looked against Michigan last week.

Oklahoma at Ohio State: This is the second best game of the week, but it could easily become the better of the top two games. Ohio State might beat Indiana by 7 touchdowns if they played again, but Oklahoma might also beat Indiana by “half a hundred,” as former Coach Barry Switzer wanted every week. Which team has the better secondary? Oklahoma wins here. Who has the better offensive and defensive lines? Offensive lines are about equal, but the Buckeyes have the better defensive line. The offensive skill positions for both teams are top flight. We could see this one still to be decided late in the fourth quarter, or maybe after the fourth quarter.

Stanford at USC: Okay, maybe USC overlooked Western Michigan. Maybe WMU is still just as good as last year. Or, maybe the Trojan defense isn’t quite up to championship standards just yet. Stanford didn’t let down in their game against Rice “down under,” in Sydney, Australia. The Cardinal steamrolled the Owls, who definitely are not in Western Michigan’s class. This game should be interesting. Sam Darnold should be able to pass the ball with enough efficiency to put up 250 passing yards and 24 or more points, but can the USC defense contain a Stanford offense that looked very similar to the 2010 team that had Andrew Luck and Stepfan Taylor.

Important Other Games of Interest
Western Michigan at Michigan State: The Spartans disappointed greatly last year, and their opening win over Bowling Green did nothing to prove they were back. Western Michigan gave USC all it could handle for 3 quarters, and the Broncos look to be very good again this year under new head coach Tim Lester. This game should give Spartan fans a realistic look at whether their team is coming back. A win in East Lansing could propel the Spartans to a .500 or better season and a bowl bid. A loss, followed by another to Notre Dame next week, and MSU could finish under .500 again.

Northwestern at Duke: Stanford and Vanderbilt looked terrific in their first games. Duke and Northwestern looked okay, but this could be a year where all four brainy schools become bowl eligible. The winner of this game will be 2-0 with an almost guarantee of moving to 3-0 the following week.

Iowa at Iowa St.: Both teams looked better than decent in game one, but neither set the woods on fire. However, like the previous game, the winner of this rivalry emerges at 2-0 with an almost certain 3-0 start after next week. Matt Campbell may be about ready to take the Cyclones up a notch or two in the Big 12 standings, and we will be monitoring this one closely. If Iowa wins by double digits, then the Hawkeyes move to the top contender spot to Wisconsin in the Big Ten West.

Wake Forest at Boston College: Yet another game where the winner will be 2-0, this game should be a nice defensive showcase with the possibility that defense and special teams will be the deciding factor in a 17-14 type of score (BC won 17-14 last year). BC won in Winston-Salem last year, and the Eagles should be considered a mild favorite. Wake Forest has more experience and maybe a little better depth, so this game should be very close.

Nebraska at Oregon: Willie Taggart needed two years of rebuilding at his two previous stops in the coaching profession. Western Kentucky and South Florida both performed poorly in season one of their Taggart eras. Oregon opened the 2017 season with a 77-point offensive barrage against Southern Utah. Nebraska struggled with an Arkansas State team that could win 10 games this year and will almost assuredly earn a bowl bid. This game will give us a lot more information about whether Oregon can turn the corner in Taggart’s first year in Eugene, and whether Coach Mike Riley can get Nebraska back to the high echelon in college football, or whether 7-9 wins is the new norm in Lincoln.

South Carolina at Missouri: After watching Florida and Tennessee play in week one, there is clearly a chance for South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky to move up to number two behind Georgia, and if Eason is out long in Athens, who knows? Any of the current back four could sneak up and take the East Division flag. Because it is the first conference game of the season for the SEC, the winner will take the early lead in the East. South Carolina looked mighty impressive in their win over North Carolina State, while Missouri’s offense looked fantastic against Missouri State. The Tigers’ defense made MSU’s offense look great. As we mentioned in our preseason preview, it would not shock us if Missouri became the first major college team to both score and surrender 40 points per game in a season. The Tigers should score a lot of points again this week. If the Gamecocks don’t play too conservatively, USC can put up 50 on the Tiger defense. Missouri might win if Coach Will Muschamp tries to sustain a lot of long drives and keeps the ball out of Drew Lock’s hands.

Boise State at Washington State: This will be an interesting late game in the Palouse. Washington State’s defense pitched a shutout against Montana State in game one, while the Cougar offense was a lot more potent than the 31 points scored showed. This could be the best Mike Leach-coached team ever or a close second best to his 2008 team at Texas Tech.

The PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.5 128.7 132.5 131.6
2 Ohio St. 132.6 129.5 131.8 131.3
3 Washington 128.4 124.8 129.2 127.5
4 Clemson 128.5 124.7 127.6 126.9
5 Florida St. 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
6 Penn St. 126.2 123.9 126.9 125.7
7 Oklahoma 124.0 122.0 125.0 123.7
8 Auburn 124.1 122.0 124.0 123.4
9 Oklahoma St. 121.2 119.8 122.8 121.3
10 Wisconsin 122.9 118.8 121.4 121.1
11 U S C 120.2 119.8 120.6 120.2
12 L S U 120.4 118.6 121.1 120.0
13 Stanford 120.3 117.9 119.3 119.2
14 Washington St. 119.5 116.2 118.7 118.1
15 Michigan 118.3 117.3 117.5 117.7
16 Miami 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
17 Georgia 116.4 117.7 116.5 116.9
18 Virginia Tech 116.7 116.3 117.1 116.7
19 Louisville 116.7 115.8 117.1 116.5
20 Florida 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
21 N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
22 Kansas St. 114.1 113.6 114.5 114.1
23 Colorado 114.8 112.1 112.7 113.2
24 Iowa 112.0 111.4 111.7 111.7
25 Northwestern 112.1 110.0 111.8 111.3
26 Georgia Tech 112.8 110.3 110.8 111.3
27 Kentucky 111.8 110.3 111.3 111.1
28 Tennessee 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
29 T C U 111.7 108.9 111.4 110.6
30 Notre Dame 111.2 109.3 111.3 110.6
31 Texas 109.5 110.7 109.5 109.9
32 Oregon 111.2 107.8 110.2 109.7
33 Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
34 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
35 South Florida 109.5 107.7 110.7 109.3
36 Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
37 N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
38 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
39 U C L A 108.9 107.8 108.3 108.3
40 West Virginia 107.8 108.8 107.7 108.1
41 Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
42 Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
43 Utah 105.2 107.9 105.4 106.2
44 S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
45 Maryland 105.3 107.4 105.4 106.0
46 Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
47 Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
48 Memphis 104.9 103.9 105.3 104.7
49 Nebraska 104.0 105.8 103.3 104.4
50 Minnesota 104.4 104.6 104.0 104.3
51 Indiana 104.1 104.3 104.1 104.2
52 Colo. State 104.2 102.8 104.1 103.7
53 Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
54 Central Florida 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
55 Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
56 Baylor 101.9 104.4 101.8 102.7
57 Tulsa 102.7 101.7 102.7 102.4
58 Texas Tech 102.8 102.5 101.6 102.3
59 Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
60 Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
61 Western Michigan 102.7 99.1 104.4 102.1
62 Iowa State 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
63 Arizona St. 102.3 102.3 101.0 101.9
64 BYU 100.9 99.8 101.3 100.6
65 San Diego St. 99.4 100.4 101.0 100.3
66 Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
67 Navy 99.2 100.2 99.1 99.5
68 Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
69 California 100.6 98.0 98.6 99.1
70 Appalachian St. 99.7 96.9 100.2 98.9
71 W. Kentucky 98.6 96.1 100.4 98.4
72 Boise St. 98.6 96.9 97.9 97.8
73 Michigan St. 96.0 100.3 96.6 97.6
74 Arizona 98.8 97.6 96.4 97.6
75 Wyoming 98.7 96.3 97.5 97.5
76 SMU 97.0 97.3 97.4 97.2
77 Purdue 96.1 98.4 96.9 97.1
78 Rutgers 97.0 96.6 96.3 96.6
79 Army 96.3 95.9 97.2 96.5
80 Oregon St. 96.7 96.6 95.1 96.1
81 Temple 95.7 96.4 95.8 96.0
82 Miami (O) 92.9 95.3 95.1 94.4
83 Tulane 94.1 94.5 94.5 94.4
84 Troy 93.9 94.1 93.1 93.7
85 Air Force 93.3 94.0 93.6 93.6
86 New Mexico 92.7 93.2 93.6 93.2
87 Eastern Michigan 93.0 93.0 93.1 93.0
88 U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
89 Kansas 91.1 94.5 90.4 92.0
90 Ohio U 90.9 92.6 91.8 91.8
91 Old Dominion 90.4 93.4 90.9 91.6
92 Middle Tennessee 90.2 91.1 91.1 90.8
93 Louisiana Tech 89.8 91.6 90.7 90.7
94 Arkansas St. 89.5 91.1 91.2 90.6
95 Cincinnati 89.0 91.8 90.5 90.4
96 Hawaii 89.6 91.3 89.7 90.2
97 Illinois 89.1 91.2 87.5 89.3
98 Central Michigan 88.7 88.9 89.1 88.9
99 Connecticut 86.7 89.9 87.3 88.0
100 Idaho 86.2 88.9 87.0 87.3
101 Nevada 85.4 88.8 87.6 87.2
102 Fresno St. 87.6 86.2 87.7 87.2
103 East Carolina 86.5 87.8 86.5 86.9
104 Southern Miss. 86.1 87.5 86.2 86.6
105 Utah St. 87.1 86.0 86.3 86.5
106 Northern Illinois 86.2 86.2 86.4 86.2
107 San Jose St. 86.7 85.7 86.0 86.1
108 UL-Lafayette 84.3 86.2 84.1 84.9
109 Akron 83.5 87.3 83.5 84.8
110 S. Alabama 83.6 86.6 83.8 84.7
111 U N L V 83.3 86.5 83.7 84.5
112 N. Mexico St. 85.6 82.9 84.7 84.4
113 Georgia St. 84.5 83.7 84.4 84.2
114 Marshall 83.0 84.8 84.1 84.0
115 Kent St. 83.2 84.4 84.2 83.9
116 Buffalo 81.6 84.9 83.6 83.4
117 Massachusetts 83.4 82.6 83.1 83.0
118 Florida Atlantic 81.3 84.8 82.2 82.8
119 Bowling Green 81.8 82.4 82.7 82.3
120 N. Texas 81.5 83.1 81.4 82.0
121 Florida Int’l. 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
122 Georgia Southern 81.2 82.5 80.8 81.5
123 UL-Monroe 81.8 82.1 80.3 81.4
124 Ball St. 78.9 81.0 80.3 80.1
125 Rice 77.8 78.8 78.1 78.2
126 U T E P 74.7 79.2 76.0 76.7
127 Charlotte 74.9 77.7 75.4 76.0
128 Coastal Carolina 74.8 75.7 76.6 75.7
129 Texas St. 70.4 74.4 69.1 71.3
130 UAB 64.2 69.7 66.4 66.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 0-0 2-0 109.5 107.7 110.7 109.3
Central Florida 0-0 1-0 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
Temple 0-0 0-1 95.7 96.4 95.8 96.0
Cincinnati 0-0 1-0 89.0 91.8 90.5 90.4
Connecticut 0-0 1-0 86.7 89.9 87.3 88.0
East Carolina 0-0 0-1 86.5 87.8 86.5 86.9
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 1-0 104.9 103.9 105.3 104.7
Houston 0-0 0-0 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
Tulsa 0-0 0-1 102.7 101.7 102.7 102.4
Navy 0-0 1-0 99.2 100.2 99.1 99.5
SMU 0-0 1-0 97.0 97.3 97.4 97.2
Tulane 0-0 1-0 94.1 94.5 94.5 94.4
             
AAC Averages     97.7 98.2 98.1 98.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 0-0 1-0 128.5 124.7 127.6 126.9
Florida St. 0-0 0-1 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
Louisville 0-0 1-0 116.7 115.8 117.1 116.5
N. Carolina St. 0-0 0-1 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 0-0 1-0 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 0-0 1-0 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 0-0 1-0 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 0-0 1-0 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
Virginia Tech 0-0 1-0 116.7 116.3 117.1 116.7
Georgia Tech 0-0 0-1 112.8 110.3 110.8 111.3
N. Carolina 0-0 0-1 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-0 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 0-0 1-0 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 0-0 1-0 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
             
ACC Averages     112.5 111.2 111.8 111.8
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 0-0 1-0 124.0 122.0 125.0 123.7
Oklahoma St. 0-0 1-0 121.2 119.8 122.8 121.3
Kansas St. 0-0 1-0 114.1 113.6 114.5 114.1
T C U 0-0 1-0 111.7 108.9 111.4 110.6
Texas 0-0 0-1 109.5 110.7 109.5 109.9
West Virginia 0-0 0-1 107.8 108.8 107.7 108.1
Baylor 0-0 0-1 101.9 104.4 101.8 102.7
Texas Tech 0-0 1-0 102.8 102.5 101.6 102.3
Iowa State 0-0 1-0 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
Kansas 0-0 1-0 91.1 94.5 90.4 92.0
             
Big 12 Averages     108.5 108.8 108.7 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 1-0 132.6 129.5 131.8 131.3
Penn St. 0-0 1-0 126.2 123.9 126.9 125.7
Michigan 0-0 1-0 118.3 117.3 117.5 117.7
Maryland 0-0 1-0 105.3 107.4 105.4 106.0
Indiana 0-1 0-1 104.1 104.3 104.1 104.2
Michigan St. 0-0 1-0 96.0 100.3 96.6 97.6
Rutgers 0-0 0-1 97.0 96.6 96.3 96.6
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 1-0 122.9 118.8 121.4 121.1
Iowa 0-0 1-0 112.0 111.4 111.7 111.7
Northwestern 0-0 1-0 112.1 110.0 111.8 111.3
Nebraska 0-0 1-0 104.0 105.8 103.3 104.4
Minnesota 0-0 1-0 104.4 104.6 104.0 104.3
Purdue 0-0 0-1 96.1 98.4 96.9 97.1
Illinois 0-0 1-0 89.1 91.2 87.5 89.3
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.5 108.2 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-0 1-0 98.6 96.1 100.4 98.4
Old Dominion 0-0 1-0 90.4 93.4 90.9 91.6
Middle Tennessee 0-0 0-1 90.2 91.1 91.1 90.8
Marshall 0-0 1-0 83.0 84.8 84.1 84.0
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-1 81.3 84.8 82.2 82.8
Florida Int’l. 0-0 0-1 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
Charlotte 0-0 0-1 74.9 77.7 75.4 76.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 0-0 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-0 89.8 91.6 90.7 90.7
Southern Miss. 0-0 0-1 86.1 87.5 86.2 86.6
N. Texas 0-0 1-0 81.5 83.1 81.4 82.0
Rice 0-0 0-1 77.8 78.8 78.1 78.2
U T E P 0-0 0-1 74.7 79.2 76.0 76.7
UAB 0-0 1-0 64.2 69.7 66.4 66.8
             
CUSA Averages     83.2 85.2 84.2 84.2
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   1-0 111.2 109.3 111.3 110.6
BYU   1-1 100.9 99.8 101.3 100.6
Army   1-0 96.3 95.9 97.2 96.5
Massachusetts   0-2 83.4 82.6 83.1 83.0
             
Indep. Averages     97.9 96.9 98.2 97.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 0-0 0-1 92.9 95.3 95.1 94.4
Ohio U 0-0 1-0 90.9 92.6 91.8 91.8
Akron 0-0 0-1 83.5 87.3 83.5 84.8
Kent St. 0-0 0-1 83.2 84.4 84.2 83.9
Buffalo 0-0 0-1 81.6 84.9 83.6 83.4
Bowling Green 0-0 0-1 81.8 82.4 82.7 82.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 0-0 0-1 102.7 99.1 104.4 102.1
Toledo 0-0 1-0 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
Eastern Michigan 0-0 1-0 93.0 93.0 93.1 93.0
Central Michigan 0-0 1-0 88.7 88.9 89.1 88.9
Northern Illinois 0-0 0-1 86.2 86.2 86.4 86.2
Ball St. 0-0 0-1 78.9 81.0 80.3 80.1
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.5 89.6 89.2
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 1-1 104.2 102.8 104.1 103.7
Boise St. 0-0 1-0 98.6 96.9 97.9 97.8
Wyoming 0-0 0-1 98.7 96.3 97.5 97.5
Air Force 0-0 1-0 93.3 94.0 93.6 93.6
New Mexico 0-0 1-0 92.7 93.2 93.6 93.2
Utah St. 0-0 0-1 87.1 86.0 86.3 86.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-0 99.4 100.4 101.0 100.3
Hawaii 0-0 2-0 89.6 91.3 89.7 90.2
Nevada 0-0 0-1 85.4 88.8 87.6 87.2
Fresno St. 0-0 1-0 87.6 86.2 87.7 87.2
San Jose St. 0-0 1-1 86.7 85.7 86.0 86.1
U N L V 0-0 0-1 83.3 86.5 83.7 84.5
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.3 92.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 0-0 1-0 128.4 124.8 129.2 127.5
Stanford 0-0 1-0 120.3 117.9 119.3 119.2
Washington St. 0-0 1-0 119.5 116.2 118.7 118.1
Oregon 0-0 1-0 111.2 107.8 110.2 109.7
California 0-0 1-0 100.6 98.0 98.6 99.1
Oregon St. 0-0 1-1 96.7 96.6 95.1 96.1
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 0-0 1-0 120.2 119.8 120.6 120.2
Colorado 0-0 1-0 114.8 112.1 112.7 113.2
U C L A 0-0 1-0 108.9 107.8 108.3 108.3
Utah 0-0 1-0 105.2 107.9 105.4 106.2
Arizona St. 0-0 1-0 102.3 102.3 101.0 101.9
Arizona 0-0 1-0 98.8 97.6 96.4 97.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.6 109.1 109.6 109.8
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 1-0 116.4 117.7 116.5 116.9
Florida 0-0 0-1 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
Kentucky 0-0 1-0 111.8 110.3 111.3 111.1
Tennessee 0-0 1-0 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
Vanderbilt 0-0 1-0 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
S. Carolina 0-0 1-0 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
Missouri 0-0 1-0 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 0-0 1-0 133.5 128.7 132.5 131.6
Auburn 0-0 1-0 124.1 122.0 124.0 123.4
L S U 0-0 1-0 120.4 118.6 121.1 120.0
Arkansas 0-0 1-0 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
Ole Miss 0-0 1-0 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
Texas A&M 0-0 0-1 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
Mississippi St. 0-0 1-0 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
             
SEC Averages     113.1 111.7 112.5 112.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 0-1 99.7 96.9 100.2 98.9
Troy 0-0 0-1 93.9 94.1 93.1 93.7
Arkansas St. 0-0 0-1 89.5 91.1 91.2 90.6
Idaho 0-0 1-0 86.2 88.9 87.0 87.3
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-0 84.3 86.2 84.1 84.9
S. Alabama 0-0 0-1 83.6 86.6 83.8 84.7
N. Mexico St. 0-0 0-1 85.6 82.9 84.7 84.4
Georgia St. 0-0 0-1 84.5 83.7 84.4 84.2
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-1 81.2 82.5 80.8 81.5
UL-Monroe 0-0 0-1 81.8 82.1 80.3 81.4
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-0 74.8 75.7 76.6 75.7
Texas St. 0-0 1-0 70.4 74.4 69.1 71.3
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.6 85.4 84.6 84.9

Overall Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.1 111.7 112.5 112.4
2 ACC 112.5 111.2 111.8 111.8
3 PAC-12 110.6 109.1 109.6 109.8
4 BIG 12 108.5 108.8 108.7 108.7
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.5 108.2 108.4
6 AAC 97.7 98.2 98.1 98.0
7 INDEP. 97.9 96.9 98.2 97.7
8 MWC 92.2 92.3 92.4 92.3
9 MAC 88.6 89.5 89.6 89.2
10 SBC 84.6 85.4 84.6 84.9
11 CUSA 83.2 85.2 84.2 84.2

 

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Washington
5 Oklahoma
6 USC
7 Penn St.
8 LSU
9 Oklahoma St.
10 Auburn
11 Miami (Fla)
12 Wisconsin
13 Stanford
14 Michigan
15 Florida St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Kansas St.
18 Louisville
19 Washington St.
20 Georgia
21 Utah
22 Tennessee
23 Florida
24 Iowa
25 Colorado
26 South Florida
27 Pittsburgh
28 Georgia Tech
29 Nebraska
30 Western Michigan
31 Boise St.
32 Texas A&M
33 Northwestern
34 Houston
35 TCU
36 Notre Dame
37 West Virginia
38 Kentucky
39 Western Kentucky
40 Mississippi St.
41 San Diego St.
42 North Carolina
43 Toledo
44 Arkansas
45 Minnesota
46 UCLA
47 North Carolina St.
48 Memphis
49 Oregon
50 South Carolina
51 Vanderbilt
52 Ole Miss
53 California
54 Navy
55 Tulsa
56 BYU
57 Appalachian St.
58 Colorado St.
59 Air Force
60 Temple
61 Michigan St.
62 Wake Forest
63 Boston College
64 Louisiana Tech
65 Maryland
66 Troy
67 Central Florida
68 Texas Tech
69 Indiana
70 Old Dominion
71 Texas
72 Arkansas St.
73 Syracuse
74 Baylor
75 Duke
76 Missouri
77 Idaho
78 Arizona St.
79 New Mexico
80 Army
81 Wyoming
82 Arizona
83 Ohio
84 Eastern Michigan
85 Oregon St.
86 SMU
87 Iowa St.
88 Hawaii
89 UTSA
90 Northern Illinois
91 Central Michigan
92 Tulane
93 Southern Miss.
94 Middle Tennessee
95 Purdue
96 UL-Lafayette
97 Illinois
98 Virginia
99 Cincinnati
100 Georgia Southern
101 Miami (O)
102 North Texas
103 Nevada
104 San Jose St.
105 Utah St.
106 Rutgers
107 Marshall
108 Coastal Carolina
109 Kansas
110 UAB
111 Akron
112 South Alabama
113 Bowling Green
114 East Carolina
115 Connecticut
116 Fresno St.
117 Ball St.
118 UL-Monroe
119 Kent St.
120 New Mexico St.
121 UTEP
122 UNLV
123 Georgia St.
124 Charlotte
125 Florida Int’l.
126 Rice
127 Buffalo
128 Massachusetts
129 Florida Atlantic
130 Texas St.

Note: Bowl Projections will resume in October

August 29, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for August 31-September 3, 2017

This Week’s College Football Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Alabama (N) Florida St. 6.6 3.8 6.3
Arizona St. New Mexico St. 23.0 25.7 22.8
Auburn Georgia Southern 46.7 42.9 47.2
Boise St. Troy St. 8.3 6.2 8.2
Central Florida Florida Intl. 17.1 19.6 16.6
Clemson Kent 48.3 42.9 46.2
Coastal Carolina Massachusetts -10.5 -7.8 -8.4
Colorado Colorado St. 9.4 8.3 7.0
Eastern Mich. Charlotte 22.1 18.5 21.7
Florida (N) Michigan -1.1 -1.0 -0.8
Florida Atlantic Navy -12.5 -9.8 -11.1
Georgia Appalachian St. 19.6 23.9 19.1
Georgia Tech Tennessee 4.8 3.9 4.8
Illinois Ball St. 14.4 14.0 11.2
Indiana Ohio St. -25.1 -21.6 -23.9
Iowa Wyoming 16.2 18.4 17.1
LSU (N) BYU 20.5 19.8 20.6
Marshall Miami (Ohio) -9.4 -9.8 -11.1
Memphis Louisiana-Monroe 30.8 28.9 33.3
Michigan St. Bowling Green 16.0 20.5 14.9
Middle Tenn. Vanderbilt -17.7 -14.9 -15.8
Minnesota Buffalo 30.6 26.1 28.4
Mississippi South Alabama 26.8 22.4 22.0
NC St. (N) South Carolina 8.8 8.4 9.3
Nebraska Arkansas St. 19.4 19.2 17.0
North Carolina California 16.1 17.1 16.6
Northern Ill. Boston College -13.3 -14.1 -12.6
Northwestern Nevada 34.5 28.0 31.8
Notre Dame Temple 15.7 13.1 15.3
Oklahoma UTEP 52.6 46.1 52.3
Oklahoma St. Tulsa 14.5 14.5 16.1
Penn St. Akron 43.6 36.7 43.9
Purdue (N) Louisville -22.0 -18.5 -21.7
Rutgers Washington -29.9 -25.5 -31.8
Southern Miss. Kentucky -24.5 -21.2 -24.1
Texas Maryland 14.0 12.3 14.3
Texas-San Antonio Houston -10.3 -7.3 -8.0
UCLA Texas A&M 4.0 5.5 4.8
USC Western Mich. 22.4 25.8 21.1
Virginia Tech West Va. 9.0 7.5 9.6
Wisconsin Utah St. 37.6 34.4 36.9

(N) means neutral site game

We’ve had a small appetizer of college football games, and the first main course shall be served over the course of five days, commencing with a couple of choice morsels Thursday night. The PiRates will be focused on these games this weekend.

Ohio State at Indiana–It is rare for Big Ten teams to open with a conference game. This one should be a tad more interesting than it looks on the surface. Indiana released former head coach Kevin Wilson from his contract last year (actually a forced resignation), due to an issue with a player with more than an injured back who was told to keep playing.  Wilson didn’t wait long to have a new job. He is now the offensive coordinator at ….. Ohio State! Add Wilson’s chip on his shoulder to Coach Urban Meyer’s boulder chip on his shoulder from his Buckeyes’ being shut out by Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals, and Ohio State will most likely do everything it can to run the score up on IU. It is not supposed to matter, but if the Buckeyes win this game 63-0, the pollsters will immediately overreact and move them up in the polls, maybe up to number one.

Tulsa at Oklahoma State–Are the Cowboys strong enough to challenge rival Oklahoma and compete for the Big 12 Championship? This might be the best Oklahoma State team since the 2011 team came within an upset loss to Iowa State from playing for all the marbles. Tulsa might be a little better than the 10-3 team of last year, possibly the Golden Hurricane’s best team since maybe 1982 and definitely as good as recent dominant TU teams in this century. A close game doesn’t necessarily mean that Oklahoma State isn’t a playoff contender. This game could be rather close for quite a long time.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (in Denver)–The Rams’ offense looked lethal against Oregon State, and a team usually improves the most in the week between game one and game two. CU does benefit from having 2017 game film on CSU, but this advantage does not offset the one game of experience that the Rams have. If CSU pulls off the mild upset, the Rams could be in line to become the top Group of 5 contender for the New Year’s 6 Bowl tie-in. This just might be the actual best game of the week, but few people will watch this one outside the Centennial State.

Maryland at Texas–Tom Herman makes his debut in Austin, and the Longhorn faithful believe the days of wine and roses will return sooner rather than later. Maryland will not back down and be easy fodder for the Longhorns, and there is an extra factor in this game that could lead to a lower than expected game score. Who better to know the weaknesses of the Urban Meyer-style spread offense than somebody that was a defensive assistant under Meyer? In this game, former offensive coordinator Herman will lead UT against former Meyer defensive assistant D. J. Durkin, the head coach on the opposite sideline. This game becomes a real life chess match worth watching.

Wyoming at Iowa–Okay, you may not be all that excited about this game, but we are. First and foremost, some of the PiRates have a love and affinity for the Western part of this nation’s flyover real estate, Iowa and Wyoming included. Also, we are big time supporters of Cowboy coach Craig Bohl and Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz. These two gentlemen know their stuff, and their teams have an incredible grasp of the fundamentals and the “little things”. These two teams may win games in ways that are not easily seen in the box score. We look for this one to be nip and tuck, and it would not shock us if the visitors from Laramie pulled off the upset.

South Carolina vs. North Carolina State (in Charlotte)–The ACC has the small advantage over the SEC these days. The Wolf Pack appear to be primed to challenge Louisville for third best in the ACC Atlantic and maybe even become a dark horse contender for the division flag, while the Gamecocks are on the cusp but not yet playing like a challenger, even in the parity known as the SEC East. Our opinion on this one is that NCSU should win by more than a touchdown if not more than two. However, this should become a shootout, as South Carolin’a offense should annex a lot of territory in this game.

Florida vs. Michigan (in Arlington, TX)–We have been flip-flopping on this game since June. At first, we believed that Michigan could be in danger of falling back to 6-6 or even 5-7, while we believed that Florida was like a snake in high grass waiting to pounce on all the mice in their division of their league. Then, after looking at returning depth and experience, it appeared to us that Michigan had a lot of experienced backups who, with a year of seasoning, could be rather competent regulars in 2017. We were concerned about the Florida quarterback situation, and then Coach Jim McElwain secured the signature of former Notre Dame starter Malik Zaire. It tilted the needle over to the Gator side, but then McElwain was forced to suspend star receiver Antonio Callaway and a half dozen other players for this game. Callaway may have been the one piece in the puzzle that Michigan would have found no real answer in stopping. Now, the needle tilts toward the Maize and Blue. By the way, Michigan will wear maize-colored jerseys in this game, something they have not done in 89 years.

Alabama vs. Florida State (in Atlanta)–Obviously, this is the top game of the week and maybe the top game of the regular season. There are so many layers to peel off in this preview, more than we have space to devote to it. In an abridged version, can Florida State’s offensive line protect quarterback Deondre Francois long enough for him to find a group of raw receivers? Frnacois spent too much time with his back on the turf in 2016, and it will take a major improvement on the Seminoles part to hold off stars like Da’Ron Payne and get past the Crimson Tide trench to linebackers the quality of Rashaan Evans and Shaun Dion Hamilton. On the other side of the ball, Alabama cannot get by predominantly on a power running game. Jalen Hurts has the talent to throw for 200+ yards in this game. This game brings back memories of 50 years ago, when Alabama returned almost their entire two-deep from a defense that gave up 44 points in 11 games the year before and returned Ken Stabler from an offense that scored more than 27 points a game. The Tide were 20+ point favorites in this game and was lucky to escape with a 37-37 tie. Notably, in this game the great Bear Bryant was equipped with a microphone. There were issues with the scoreboard, and late in the game, Bryant was overheard on the mic saying, “What the H is the score any way?”

Texas A&M at UCLA–The losing team’s coach will sit on a seat that is about 10 degrees warmer Monday than it is now. Texas A&M has enough talent to compete for third in the SEC West and challenge for a 10-win season, but the Aggies looked as strong last year as well. After TAMU began the season 6-0, the team collapsed, finishing 2-5. The defense wore down after the overtime win over Tennessee, and the Aggies two wins after that big game came against New Mexico State and UT-San Antonio. UCLA struggled after quarterback Josh Rosen exited with a shoulder injury. However, the Bruins were just 3-2 prior to the injury in the Arizona State game, so Coach Jim Mora, Jr. overhauled the Bruin offense in the off-season and made numerous changes to his offensive coaching assistants. The Bruins also must rebuild a good bit on the defensive side of the ball, so the offense better gel quickly. So, don’t go up to the junior Mora and ask if his team can still make the playoffs this year.

There are a host of additional games on this week’s schedule that hold some bit of unique interest. Those games include:

FIU at Central Florida–Butch Davis returns to the sidelines for FIU and has enough talent to surprise in 2017. UCF believes they can challenge rival USF in the East.

Navy at FAU–Lane Kiffin’s debut with the Owls against the tricky triple option offense of Navy makes this one look like a track meet. It wouldn’t surprise us if more than 75 total points are scored in this one.

Temple at Notre Dame–The Owls begin life without Coach Matt Rhule. New head man Geoff Collins faces a total rebuild in Philly, while Notre Dame looks to recover from a poor 2016 season with a half-dozen new assistants.

Troy at Boise State–We have an eye on Boise at the start of the season. Boise State could be at a crossroads, where their dynasty seasons could be over. Then again, this could also be the low-point of a major rebuild. Troy was down for a few years, but the Trojans returned to Sun Belt fame last year with a 10-3 season and co-championship. It won’t get the headlines that the big games receive, but this game should be an excellent contest.

Kentucky at Southern Mississippi–Last year Southern Miss pulled off an incredible upset at Kentucky to begin the 2016 season, and it looked like Mark Stoops was in a bit of trouble in Lexington. However, the Wildcats turned things around to win seven games that included a trip to the Taxslayer Bowl. Now, there are football experts that believe Kentucky can compete for the 2017 SEC East title. The Blue and White return the bulk of an offense that averaged 30 points and 420 yards per game, while the defense should be a little better than last year. Southern Miss is not as strong as last year, but still good enough to knock off UK in Hattiesburg, especially if the expected rain makes this game sloppy.

Appalachian State at Georgia–Appy State came close to upsetting Tennessee in Knoxville to begin the 2016 season. Can the Mountaineers go down between the hedges and make like miserable for the Bulldogs? Georgia’s defense should control this game, holding ASU to about 200-250 total yards, while the offense may not be flashy, but should produce 200 rushing yards. If Georgia wins by less than 17 points, it will be cause for concern. We will look at all the SEC East teams carefully this week to see if one or two emerge as the true top squads.

Houston at UT-San Antonio–UTSA is a contender in the West Division of CUSA, and in a normal week, the Roadrunners would be expected to make this a close game. Houston must play this one with little practice thanks to Hurricane Harvey, and it is Major Applewhite’s debut with the Cougars. This will be interesting to see how much lost preparation hurts UH.

Georgia Southern at Auburn–We don’t expect this game to be close. It could easily be 21-0 in the first quarter. What we are looking for in this one is how well Tiger quarterback Jarrett Stidham runs Gus Malzahn’s offense. If Stidham replicates the stats from his last three FBS games (2015 against Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State), then watch out, because this Auburn team just might be good enough to go to the 2017-18 playoffs. Stidham’s stat line in those three games was 51-81-2 for 934 yards and 6 TDs. If he averages 11.5 yards per pass attempt for Auburn, then even Alabama better beware.

Purdue vs. Louisville (in Indianapolis)–This game features Jeff Brohm making his Boilermaker coaching Purdue against former mentor Bobby Petrino and some QB named Lamar Jackson, who owns some trophy he received from the Downtown Athletic Club in Manhattan named for former coach John Heisman. It would not be shocking if UL won this one by a score similar to 62-24, but what makes this game interesting is to see how a Big Ten team looks running a spread passing game.

South Alabama at Ole Miss–South Alabama upset Mississippi State and San Diego State last year, two teams that played in bowls. So, it would not be a big shock if the Jaguars won in Oxford. However, if USA wins, the blame will be on Ole Miss and interim coach Matt Luke rather than on the performance. Luke is most likely in a position where he has little chance of keeping the job full time, even though he deserves a head coaching job. It would not surprise us if a big name coach was patrolling the home team sidelines at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium next year.

LSU vs. BYU (in New Orleans)–This game was moved from Houston to New Orleans due to the hurricane. It gives the Tigers a tiny bit more advantage, but we didn’t think this game would be all that close in Houston. BYU has a game under its belt, and the Cougars did not show their entire arsenal. What they showed was only adequate at best. This game takes on added interest not because of the weather, but because whether Ed Orgeron can prove that the removing of the interim label was the right move in Baton Rouge. LSU has a considerable amount of talent, just behind Alabama and Auburn and as much as Texas A&M. The Tigers have a chance to win 10 games this year, but there is always that bit of doubt about a new coach. Orgeron has done well as the interim at USC and LSU, but his tenure as head coach at Ole Miss was a major disappointment.

Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee–Both Nashville-area teams played in bowls last year, and this game has become quite the local rivalry. MTSU has one of the top quarterbacks in the Group of 5, who happens to be the coach’s son. Brent Stockstill will draw NFL scouts to Murfreesboro this year, as the Blue Raiders look to have a potent offense capable of putting up 40 points and 500 yards per game. On the other side of the field, Derek Mason has begun to make Vanderbilt look more like Stanford East. The only ingredient missing in recent years has been the most important spot–at quarterback. Now, Vanderbilt has a competent passer, who while not another Andrew Luck or even Keller Chryst, he is competent enough to lead Vanderbilt to the cusp of division contention. Kyle Shurmur, son of Minnesota Viking OC Pat Shurmur, may have the knowledge of the game that a typical NFL quarterback may have. If he can show a bit more arm strength and a slightly quicker release, Vanderbilt’s offense will begin to look like Stanford’s, as the Commodored already have a strong running game and a stingy defense. If MTSU wins this game, then Syracuse and Minnesota will take notice, as the Blue Raiders will be capable of starting 3-0 against FBS competition. If Vanderbilt wins this game, then Kansas State needs to take note, because the Commodores will be 2-0 when the Wildcats come to the Music City on September 16.

Tennessee at Georgia Tech (in Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta)–Volunteer coach Butch Jones knows that he must win and win big in 2017, or else he will have a garage sale in January, where he disposes of a lot of orange-colored clothing and accessories. Tennessee was a disappointing 9-4 team last year and must try to improve with an unproven quarterback, something that usually only works if said raw QB wears crimson-colored clothing. Georgia Tech has an experienced offensive line returning to block for the spread option offense. Usually, if an offensive line is as experienced as the Techsters, the offense automatically improves some from the previous season. However, in this offense, the experience of the quarterback is much more important than the line, because in many cases the key defender at the point of attack is not blocked at all. Hence, the QB reads the defense and options off the reaction of the key defender. Coach Paul Johnson has not officially named his starting quarterback, but we think it will be former slot back TaQuon Marshall. The ultra-quick Marshall has the potential to be a great option quarterback, but getting his Baptism under orange fire is not the ideal way to begin a career. If Johnson goes with last year’s backup Matthew Jordan, then Tennessee’s defense should be good enough to hold the Yellow Jackets under 21 points. This is good, because the Vols may struggle on offense in September.

Note–Ratings and Bowl Projections return next week, as we did not update them after the small sampling of games last week.

Money Line Parlays makes its seasonal debut Thursday morning, August 31, 2017.

August 20, 2017

2017 Big Ten Preview

We kick off our Power 5 Conference previews today with the Big Ten Conference. While the Big Ten is our lowest rated Power 5 league to begin the season, the margin is miniscule. The number two through five leagues are separated by three points. What hurts the Big Ten is that four teams are below the norm among the entire 130 FBS roster. The other Power 5 leagues have 0, 1, or 2.

Most of the nation’s professional media have Ohio State as the overwhelming pick to win the league, and the PiRates believe the Buckeyes are the clear-cut favorite. However, Ohio State will face very stiff competition from Penn State again this season. The two teams are heavily loaded with talent, and the loser of this game could very well finish the regular season at 11-1 and have a small chance to earn a Playoff bid. The two teams square off in Columbus on October 28.

Michigan is looking at a major rebuilding project with the loss of 10 defensive starters. Having just five starters back on offense isn’t a picnic either, and Coach Jim Harbaugh has an opening game with Florida looming. The next three could come in any order, as Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan State are decent but not great teams. Two of this trio should become bowl-eligible.

The West will once again be competitive this year. Last year, five teams competed for the flag, and the same five should be involved in a hotly contested race this season. Wisconsin begins the year as the highest-rated team, but Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska are all capable of topping the Badgers. The race could end in a multiple-team tie, and 7-2 could even win the division outright yet again.

Jeff Brohm is the new ingredient in the Midwestern cocktail. He takes over a moribund Purdue program and promises to bring excitement to West Lafayette. Purdue has not been a factor for several years now, but the Boilermakers have a storied history as an exciting and innovative program that has pulled off big upsets. Brohm doesn’t have a lot of quality talent to work with in year one, but it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if the Boilermakers ruined a Saturday for a contending team.

Here is how the Big Ten media voted in the preseason poll.

Big Ten–East Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Ohio St. 34 260 29
2 Penn St. 7 231.5 4
3 Michigan 1 192 1
4 Michigan St. 0 128 0
5 Indiana 0 114 0
6 Maryland 0 100.5 0
7 Rutgers 0 38 0
         
Big Ten–West Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Wisconsin 31 259 4
2 Northwestern 5 219 0
3 Nebraska 2 176.5 0
4 Iowa 0 164.5 0
5 Minnesota 0 131 0
6t Purdue 0 57 0
6t Illinois 0 57 0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings are in close step with the media.

Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1

And, here are our not-so-scientific predictions for won-loss and bowl projections.

Big Ten Conference Projected Standings
Team Conference Overall Bowl
East Division      
Ohio St. 9-0 13-0 ***PLAYOFFS***
Penn St. 8-1 11-1 Cotton
Michigan 6-3 9-3 Outback
Indiana 3-6 6-6 Quick Lane
Maryland 2-7 4-8  
Michigan St. 2-7 4-8  
Rutgers 2-7 4-8  
       
Team Conference Overall Bowl
West Division      
Wisconsin 8-1 11-2 Citrus
Northwestern 6-3 9-3 Taxslayer
Minnesota 6-3 8-4 Foster Farms
Nebraska 5-4 7-5 Pinstripe
Iowa 4-5 7-5 Holiday
Purdue 1-8 2-10  
Illinois 1-8 2-10  
       
Ohio St. to win Big Ten Championship Game
No Big Ten team available for Armed Forces Bowl

 

Trivia: We are going to keep the previous trivia question open for a day or so. If you missed it, here it is again.
In 1918, Georgia Tech beat North Carolina State 118-0. For half a century no Division 1 team scored 100 points on another Division 1 team. In 1949 San Jose State beat New Mexico 103-0, but the Spartans would not become a major college participant until the following season, so this one doesn’t count. The last time a Division 1 team scored 100 points on another Division 1 team was in 1968, when current AAC West member Houston beat current AAC West member Tulsa 100-6.

A Houston wide receiver caught a 25-yard pass for a touchdown in that 100-6 game that made the score 93-6. He later went on to fame in the music business. A Tulsa lineman also became a famous celebrity on television and through his books.

Here are your three trivia questions:
1. Name the Houston Wide Receiver that would become a famous music celebrity.
2. Explain how this wide receiver once performed the National Anthem for a sporting event that was postponed soon after he performed, yet there was no rain, snow, or lightning.
3. Name the Tulsa lineman that became a famous TV celebrity and has used this game as a means to help advance his career.

 

Coming tomorrow: Read our Big 12 preview before you go watch the eclipse.  Is the sun going dark on this once great league, or is there life still in the Big 12?

March 22, 2017

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Games

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:33 pm

Sweet 16

Thursday, March 23
Team Team Red White Blue
Oregon Michigan -1 -1 -1
Gonzaga West Virginia 4 2 9
Kansas Purdue 4 4 1
Arizona Xavier 4 4 4

 

Friday, March 24
Team Team Red White Blue
North Carolina Butler 6 6 12
Baylor South Carolina 3 5 7
Kentucky UCLA 2 -1 1
Florida Wisconsin 5 4 -2

 

TV Schedule

Region Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
Thursday, March 23
Midwest 7:09 PM CBS Oregon vs. Michigan
West 7:39 PM TBS Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Midwest 9:39 PM CBS Kansas vs. Purdue
West 10:09 PM TBS Arizona vs. Xavier
Friday, March 24
South 7:09 PM CBS North Carolina vs. Butler
East 7:29 PM TBS Baylor vs. South Carolina
South 9:39 PM CBS Kentucky vs. UCLA
East 9:59 PM TBS Florida vs. Wisconsin
           
Saturday, March 25
Midwest TBA TBA Oregon/Michigan vs. Kansas/Purdue
West TBA TBA Gonzaga/WVU vs. Arizona/Xavier
           
Sunday, March 26
South TBA TBA UNC/Butler vs. Kentucky/UCLA
East TBA TBA Baylor/S Car vs. Florida/Wisconsin

 

 

 

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