The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 2, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 5-8, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:22 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Central FloridaSMU4.96.35.4
RutgersNebraska1.81.00.1
MemphisHouston-1.00.4-1.4
NevadaColorado St.6.57.56.4
San Jose St.UNLV2.85.34.1
Georgia TechDuke2.90.43.2
MarylandPurdue-0.40.61.2
VirginiaLouisville-7.5-6.4-8.3
Miami (Fla.)North Carolina6.14.65.8
IndianaMichigan-22.1-21.8-24.7
Bowling GreenBuffalo3.4-0.10.4
PittsburghVirginia Tech18.617.119.0
GeorgiaAuburn26.526.529.0
Boston CollegeClemson-18.0-16.6-19.3
MassachusettsLiberty-23.0-24.0-27.2
Michigan St.Ohio St.-17.0-16.9-19.5
KentuckySouth Carolina6.88.28.0
North Carolina St.Florida St.7.36.77.6
KansasTCU-9.0-9.2-10.6
FloridaMissouri6.07.07.0
CincinnatiSouth Florida23.624.426.2
Georgia St.Georgia Southern7.16.68.3
Miami (O)Kent St.3.33.65.0
Western MichiganEastern Michigan8.48.79.5
Texas St.Appalachian St.-15.9-16.4-17.5
Wake ForestArmy15.214.814.9
Arkansas St.James Madison-7.6-8.1-11.4
Iowa St.Kansas St.-0.70.3-0.4
Boise St.Fresno St.4.94.85.1
OhioAkron9.911.711.9
Utah St.Air Force-9.4-9.4-9.7
ArizonaOregon-13.9-13.3-13.4
USCWashington St.10.810.610.9
UCLAUtah-6.3-5.5-6.5
Arizona St.Washington-4.6-5.9-5.3
StanfordOregon St.-3.1-4.9-5.7
Louisiana-MonroeCoastal Carolina-10.3-11.4-12.8
VanderbiltOle Miss-20.1-17.4-20.1
LSUTennessee0.8-0.1-0.4
TulaneEast Carolina3.43.32.4
Oklahoma St.Texas Tech13.813.813.5
Oklahoma Texas2.12.03.4
AlabamaTexas A&M25.023.625.3
TroySouthern Miss.6.97.08.3
Mississippi St.Arkansas4.54.83.5
NorthwesternWisconsin-12.3-10.6-12.7
IllinoisIowa-1.10.7-0.6
NavyTulsa-4.0-4.2-5.3
Central MichiganBall St.8.99.811.3
Northern IllinoisToledo1.91.20.4
UABMiddle Tennessee12.111.312.4
UTSAWestern Kentucky1.50.5-0.3
Florida Int’l.Connecticut-13.8-12.1-13.2
Louisiana TechUTEP-3.2-1.7-4.5
New MexicoWyoming2.10.3-0.2
Notre Dame BYU3.13.03.6
San Diego St.Hawaii25.223.624.9
Oklahoma-Texas played in Dallas / Notre Dame-BYU played in Las Vegas

No FBS vs. FCS Games This Week

Teams With Byes This Week

Baylor
California
Charlotte
Colorado
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana
Marshall
Minnesota
New Mexico St.
North Texas
Old Dominion
Penn St.
Rice
South Alabama
Syracuse
Temple
West Virginia

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama132.2
2Ohio St.131.3
3Georgia130.2
4Michigan124.4
5Clemson119.3
6Utah118.7
7Minnesota118.7
8Oklahoma St.118.4
9Tennessee118.0
10Penn St.116.7
11NC State116.1
12T C U115.4
13Oklahoma115.2
14Ole Miss115.2
15Purdue115.2
16Mississippi St.115.1
17L S U115.1
18Arkansas113.8
19Baylor113.6
20Oregon113.2
21Notre Dame112.8
22Texas112.7
23Maryland112.6
24U S C112.6
25Iowa112.6
26Cincinnati112.4
27Kentucky112.2
28Kansas St.112.1
29Florida St.111.9
30Wisconsin111.1
31Pittsburgh110.7
32Texas A&M110.6
33Miami (Fla.)110.6
34Michigan St.110.5
35U C L A109.7
36BYU109.5
37Illinois109.2
38Washington109.2
39Iowa St.108.9
40Wake Forest108.5
41Louisville108.2
42Syracuse108.2
43North Carolina108.1
44Oregon St.107.8
45Texas Tech107.7
46South Carolina107.6
47Florida106.7
48UCF106.5
49West Virginia106.0
50Auburn105.8
51Washington St.104.9
52SMU104.0
53Missouri103.1
54Kansas102.8
55Air Force102.4
56Nebraska101.6
57Tulane101.4
58East Carolina101.3
59Houston101.2
60Arizona St.100.9
61Boise St.100.8
62Stanford100.2
63W. Kentucky100.2
64Rutgers99.6
65Appalachian St.99.3
66Fresno St.98.9
67California98.8
68Indiana98.5
69Boston College98.4
70Virginia98.3
71Memphis98.1
72Liberty98.0
73U T S A97.8
74James Madison97.8
75Tulsa97.2
76U A B97.1
77Georgia St.96.6
78Arizona96.6
79Coastal Carolina96.5
80Toledo96.4
81Northwestern96.2
82Army96.0
83Troy95.2
84N. Illinois95.0
85Virginia Tech94.9
86Marshall94.6
87Duke94.2
88Vanderbilt94.0
89Georgia Tech93.9
90South Alabama93.3
91San Jose St.93.2
92Miami (Ohio)93.1
93San Diego St.93.0
94Central Mich.92.5
95Louisiana92.3
96U N L V92.2
97Kent St.91.1
98Western Mich.91.0
99Ga. Southern90.8
100USF90.7
101Southern Miss.90.3
102Utah St.89.9
103Navy89.6
104Old Dominion89.3
105Florida Atlantic87.9
106Middle Tennessee87.7
107Colorado87.5
108Buffalo87.4
109U T E P86.8
110North Texas86.5
111Wyoming86.4
112Arkansas St.86.2
113Bowling Green86.1
114Nevada85.6
115Rice85.6
116Ohio85.4
117Ball St.85.0
118Eastern Mich.84.7
119New Mexico84.2
120UL-Monroe82.5
121Colorado St.81.8
122Louisiana Tech81.2
123Temple80.8
124Connecticut80.4
125Texas St.80.1
126Charlotte79.6
127Akron76.3
128Hawaii71.4
129New Mexico St.71.3
130Massachusetts71.2
131Florida Int’l.64.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati112.1111.6113.6112.4
UCF106.1106.8106.7106.5
SMU104.3103.4104.3104.0
Tulane101.7101.1101.3101.4
East Carolina101.2100.8101.9101.3
Houston101.5100.6101.6101.2
Memphis98.098.597.798.1
Tulsa97.396.797.597.2
USF91.590.290.490.7
Navy90.289.589.289.6
Temple80.882.878.780.8

AAC98.698.398.598.5

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson119.3119.1119.6119.3
NC State116.5115.5116.3116.1
Florida St.112.2111.8111.8111.9
Wake Forest108.6108.4108.5108.5
Louisville109.0108.0107.8108.2
Syracuse109.0107.9107.6108.2
Boston College98.399.597.398.4

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh111.7110.5109.9110.7
Miami (Fla.)111.1109.9110.7110.6
North Carolina108.1108.3107.9108.1
Virginia99.099.196.998.3
Virginia Tech95.695.893.494.9
Duke94.196.492.094.2
Georgia Tech94.694.392.893.9

ACC106.2106.0105.2105.8

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.118.9117.5118.9118.4
T C U116.0114.8115.4115.4
Oklahoma115.7114.6115.3115.2
Baylor114.2113.1113.6113.6
Texas113.6112.7111.8112.7
Kansas St.112.8111.5112.1112.1
Iowa St.109.0108.8108.8108.9
Texas Tech108.0106.7108.4107.7
West Virginia106.4106.0105.7106.0
Kansas104.0102.6101.8102.8

Big 12111.8110.8111.2111.3

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.131.5130.2132.2131.3
Michigan124.8123.7124.7124.4
Penn St.116.9116.9116.5116.7
Maryland112.7112.7112.6112.6
Michigan St.111.5110.3109.7110.5
Rutgers100.999.997.999.6
Indiana99.798.997.098.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota118.9118.2118.9118.7
Purdue116.0115.1114.3115.2
Iowa113.6112.4111.7112.6
Wisconsin111.7111.1110.5111.1
Illinois109.5110.1108.1109.2
Nebraska102.2101.9100.8101.6
Northwestern96.497.594.896.2

Big Ten111.9111.3110.7111.3

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky99.599.5101.6100.2
U T S A98.097.098.397.8
U A B96.796.797.997.1
Florida Atlantic87.688.787.487.9
Middle Tennessee87.187.988.087.7
U T E P86.886.686.986.8
North Texas86.485.787.586.5
Rice85.685.585.685.6
Louisiana Tech81.182.479.981.2
Charlotte79.680.279.079.6
Florida Int’l.64.467.063.064.8

CUSA86.687.086.886.8

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame113.2111.6113.5112.8
BYU110.1108.6109.9109.5
Liberty96.898.498.798.0
Army95.996.196.196.0
Connecticut80.781.678.880.4
New Mexico St.70.972.870.271.3
Massachusetts71.872.469.571.2

Independents91.391.691.091.3

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)91.594.093.793.1
Kent St.90.392.490.791.1
Buffalo85.988.488.087.4
Bowling Green86.885.885.886.1
Ohio84.286.485.785.4
Akron76.276.875.876.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo95.596.597.196.4
N. Illinois94.995.295.095.0
Central Mich.91.092.893.692.5
Western Mich.90.591.391.291.0
Ball St.84.685.684.885.0
Eastern Mich.84.685.184.284.7

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Air Force102.1102.1103.0102.4
Boise St.100.9100.1101.5100.8
Utah St.89.889.790.389.9
Wyoming85.387.386.686.4
New Mexico84.584.683.484.2
Colorado St.81.682.481.681.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.99.098.399.598.9
San Jose St.92.493.294.093.2
San Diego St.93.192.693.193.0
U N L V92.690.992.992.2
Nevada85.186.885.085.6
Hawaii70.972.171.371.4

MWC89.890.090.290.0

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah118.4117.7120.2118.7
Oregon113.6112.9113.0113.2
U S C112.0112.6113.3112.6
U C L A109.1109.2110.7109.7
Washington108.6109.3109.7109.2
Oregon St.107.8107.1108.4107.8
Washington St.104.2105.0105.4104.9
Arizona St.100.9100.5101.4100.9
Stanford101.799.399.7100.2
California98.498.599.698.8
Arizona96.796.596.696.6
Colorado88.686.787.387.5

Pac-12105.0104.6105.4105.0

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia130.3128.9131.3130.2
Tennessee117.8117.9118.2118.0
Kentucky111.6112.3112.8112.2
South Carolina107.9107.1107.7107.6
Florida106.1107.6106.5106.7
Missouri103.1103.5102.5103.1
Vanderbilt94.295.092.794.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama132.0131.2133.4132.2
Ole Miss116.3114.5114.8115.2
Mississippi St.115.8114.6115.0115.1
L S U115.6114.8114.8115.1
Arkansas114.3112.7114.5113.8
Texas A&M110.0110.6111.1110.6
Auburn106.8105.4105.3105.8

SEC113.0112.6112.9112.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.97.999.5100.399.3
James Madison95.597.5100.397.8
Georgia St.96.195.698.296.6
Coastal Carolina95.496.797.496.5
Marshall94.295.194.594.6
Ga. Southern90.690.591.490.8
Old Dominion89.389.489.289.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy94.395.096.395.2
South Alabama92.493.194.393.3
Louisiana91.791.993.392.3
Southern Miss.89.990.590.590.3
Arkansas St.85.486.986.486.2
UL-Monroe82.682.882.182.5
Texas St.79.580.680.380.1

Sun Belt91.191.892.591.8

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.8
2Big Ten111.3
3Big 12111.3
4Atlantic Coast105.8
5Pac-12105.0
6American Athletic98.5
7Sun Belt91.8
8Independents91.3
9Mountain West90.0
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.8

2022 Debut of Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasRiceWestern Michigan
CureMiddle TennesseeSouthern Miss.
FenwayNotre DameCentral Florida
New MexicoUTSANew Mexico
L.A.Oregon St.San Jose St.
Lending TreeKent St.Marshall
Las VegasUSCLSU
Frisco{Kansas}BYU
Myrtle Beach{Iowa St.}Appalachian St.
Famous Idaho PotatoBoise St.Ball St.
Boca Raton{Texas Tech}Coastal Carolina
New OrleansTroyUAB
Armed ForcesHoustonWestern Kentucky
IndependenceSMUArmy
Gasparilla[South Carolina]Memphis
HawaiiUNLVUTEP
Quick Lane{Liberty}Eastern Michigan
CamelliaMiami (O)South Alabama
First ResponderTulsa{Wyoming}
BirminghamNorth Texas[Louisville]
Guaranteed RateTexas[Wisconsin]
MilitaryPittsburghTulane
LibertyBaylor{Washington St.}
HolidayUCLASyracuse
TexasOklahomaTexas A&M
PinstripeNorth CarolinaPurdue
Cheez-ItDukeKansas St.
AlamoOklahoma St.Oregon
Duke’s MayoWake ForestMaryland
Tony the TigerMiami (Fla.)Washingon
ArizonaAir ForceToledo
OrangeNorth Carolina St.Tennessee
Music CityIowaFlorida
SugarTCUOle Miss
TaxSlayerMississippi St.Florida St.
PeachAlabamaClemson
FiestaOhio St.Georgia
Tampa BayMinnesotaKentucky
CitrusIllinoisArkansas
CottonPenn St.Cincinnati
RoseUtahMichigan
National ChampionshipAlabamaOhio St.

{Team} = At-large replacement when team not available

[Team] = Team projected to be 5-7 but receive bid due to highest APR scores

September 29, 2022

PiRate Picks–September 29-October 1, 2022

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:38 am

If you follow this weekly feature, then you must realize at this point in the season that the picks made here have put us in an untenable position. Through four full weeks and one partial fifth week in the college football season, we have issued 21 selections. 16 of them have won, and five of them have been at odds exceeding even money. Our imaginary $1,000 starting account has ballooned to $1,906.19 after going 3-0 last week with two of those three wins bringing better than +130 parlay payouts. That 16-5 record is even more ridiculous when you consider that we had one week where we were 1-4. In all the other weeks, our pretend wagering selections are 15-1! Meanwhile, we made comments in two of those weeks that we did not particularly like the slate of games available for those weeks. All this should tell you that if a situation is obviously untenable, don’t make any large gambles on the situation continuing to be as successful or even successful at all in the future. If 76.2% winners were the norm, and the wagers were real, we would be banned from wagering at most of the books and definitely greatly limited in the amount we could wager at those that did not ban us. Only a small minority of the big-time players ever get limited or banned. That’s why in all honesty, the selections going forward are almost sure to disappoint until the percentages normalize. Think of our selections being like the Cleveland Indians beginning the 1966 baseball season at 14-1 and then 27-10 near the completion of the first quarter of the season. The Indians held a substantial lead over Baltimore, but Leon Wagner was not Frank Robinson. Robby would go on to win the Triple Crown, and the Orioles would pass Cleveland with ease and go on to win the AL pennant in a breeze. The PiRate Ratings are Cleveland. Maybe, our 1954 is out there some day, but there is no reason to believe that it is this year.

Now, that we have a clear conscience, here are our picks for this week. Remember: we never wager real money on these selections, and we suggest you follow this lead. If you are a professional wagering maven, then we know you only read this weekly feature as supplemental information for your other research.

Selection #1: Iowa +10 1/2 vs. Michigan

This play is all about the number. At 9 1/2, we wouldn’t play it. We probably wouldn’t play it at 13 1/2 either. Michigan is clearly better than Iowa, but can they win by double digits in Iowa City when the Hawkeyes’ offense is starting to show signs of respectability? Iowa might be able to control the ball for 32 or more minutes in this game, and Michigan has played one above average team at home with no road games. At 10 1/2, we get 39% of the spreads most likely for a game to have, including nine of the top 15 spreads in college football. Our internal (not the PiRate Ratings) quick compare system shows this game to be a maximum of 8 points in Michigan’s favor and only about a 65% chance that the Maize and Blue will win the game by any amount. We see this being a 27-20 game for the Wolverines, and it wouldn’t be a big shock if Iowa pulled off the upset.

Selection #2: Penn State & Northwestern Under 52 1/2

James Franklin has this team believing in itself, and we have little doubt that the Nittany Lions will win this game with relative ease, but we also believe the first quarter and some of the second quarter of this game will be played conservatively as Penn State tries some new wrinkles. Northwestern’s history of being good in even-numbered years and rebuilding in odd-numbered years may have come to an end, as the Wildcats look no better than they were last year, and their win over Nebraska isn’t worth much. The NU offense isn’t likely to keep the scoreboard operator busy. We think this could be a 34-10 game, maybe a 38-7 game.

Selection #3: UNLV and New Mexico Over 42 1/2

This was a late addition to our selections this week, as the total dropped by a full point on Wednesday, and we think it has been moved too much. There are some middling plays going on with this game. At 43 1/2, it was too close to our projection of 28-17 and 45 points. Usually, we like a game to differ by three points or more in the total, but when it’s this low, 2 1/2 points are enough to make a play. The only concern is that the Lobos are scoring points of fewer than normal total yards gained. However, UNLV’s offense is better than New Mexico’s defense, and we also think there is a chance that the Rebels could score more then 28 points in this game.

Selection #4: Minnesota & Purdue Over 51 1/2

If you follow this weekly feature for any amount of time, you will probably see a trend toward playing the Under on more totals than the Over, but this week, it is an even split. We respect Minnesota’s excellent start to the season, but their defense has yet to be tested by a Power 5 competent offense, as it will this week. This isn’t Drew Brees bringing the Spoilermakers to The Cities, but this also isn’t the Bobby Bell Gophers of 1960 and 1961. Our internal rating shows PU will top 24 points in this game, but their lack of a power running game might prevent the Boilermakers from scoring the one extra TD needed to win this game. Minnesota probably will top 30 points. At 34-27, that’s 9 1/2 more points than needed to satisfy this play.

Selection #5: Oklahoma & TCU Under 68 1/2

This was actually the one total that jumped off the page when we first saw it. Oklahoma is coming off an upset loss to Kansas State where they gave up more than 40 points. TCU is averaging 46.3 points per game but hasn’t played a real defense yet. We suspect that defensive-oriented Sooner coach Brent Venables will concentrate his efforts this week on giving his defense more confidence by playing this game a little more conservatively. Meanwhile, TCU will experience some difficulty trying to consistently move the ball with short passing plays. We think the total for this game will be 60 or less. A final score of 34-21 is expected.

Selection #6: Money Line Parlay @ +176.22

Kent State over Ohio U

Wyoming over San Jose St.

The key game for us this week is the Wyoming-San Jose State game in Laramie. We believe the wrong team is favored. The Cowboys have been a different team at home in altitude as opposed to the road, and San Jose State is coming into a weather situation they have not had a chance to prepare for in the Bay Area. This game could be played in a windy rainstorm, possibly a thunderstorm, with a chance that it could be delayed one or more times. Wyoming has an advantage if the running game must be used more in the quarters where the wind is in the face of the offense. We are looking for Wyoming to win this one outright by 5 to 10 points.

We didn’t want to play Wyoming straight up for 11-10 odds, so we looked to a coupling game that would ramp it up to better than +130, and we found it in the Kent State-Ohio game. The Golden Flashes are at least 10 points better than the Bobcats, but the Money Line was only -450, and combining it with the underdog selection, it makes this parlay an attractive +176.22.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay @ +157.22

Kansas State over Texas Tech

North Carolina over Virginia Tech

Western Kentucky over Troy

Both teams won big games last week in the Kansas State-Texas Tech match-up. But, the Red Raiders beat their most hated rival. TTU rarely gets the respect in the Lone Star State by the fans of the Longhorns. At the same time, Kansas State has used a big win over a ranked opponent to propel themselves to bigger and better things. Add in the factor that our internal rating shows the Wildcats to be nine points better, and this is an attractive part of a parlay for us.

Neither North Carolina nor Virginia Tech are going to go on big runs to finish with fat won-loss records this year. In fact, we think the Hokies are looking at 5-7 or even 4-8, while the Tar Heels are maybe looking at 7-5 and a minor bowl game. We are looking at a 35-28 win for Mack Brown’s squad.

In Bowling Green, Kentucky, the Hilltoppers have been known as a basketball school with a neat mascot, but their football team should not be overlooked this year. Following a 73-0 win over possibly the worst FBS team in Florida International, they step up to play another under-the-radar team in Troy. This used to be a fierce rivlary game when both were Sun Belt Conference members, and we expect a close, hard-fought game with a lot of offensive action. Our selection of WKU here comes about due to an old theorem of ours from the 1970s that states that when a team easily slaughters a weaker team in a home game one week and then plays at home again the following week, they tend to continue to play near the best of their abilities. We think WKU wins this close game, maybe by just a field goal to five points.

September 25, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 29-October 1

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:25 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
BYUUtah St.23.221.622.5
HoustonTulane3.12.84.0
Middle TennesseeUTSA-7.3-4.7-5.9
Boise St.San Diego St.7.36.67.5
UCLAWashington2.81.72.9
UNLVNew Mexico10.78.511.9
WisconsinIllinois11.310.112.1
Penn St.Northwestern25.123.926.9
Boston CollegeLouisville-10.6-8.3-10.9
Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern7.79.59.5
Florida St.Wake Forest10.410.410.5
ArmyGeorgia St.6.87.85.1
ClemsonNorth Carolina St.4.55.35.0
PittsburghGeorgia Tech25.825.126.4
MarylandMichigan St.1.32.53.0
DukeVirginia-8.9-6.5-9.5
North CarolinaVirginia Tech11.611.313.6
Old DominionLiberty-3.1-4.6-5.1
South FloridaEast Carolina-4.6-5.5-6.4
Central FloridaSMU4.96.35.4
Ball St.Northern Illinois-10.9-10.5-11.2
MinnesotaPurdue10.711.313.2
James MadisonTexas St.16.217.120.4
Air ForceNavy16.217.319.0
BaylorOklahoma St.1.01.50.8
KansasIowa St.-2.7-4.2-5.4
LouisianaSouth Alabama1.91.41.8
MemphisTemple20.218.322.0
TulsaCincinnati-12.1-12.1-13.4
Eastern MichiganMassachusetts16.616.819.3
UtahOregon St.10.39.911.4
New Mexico St.Florida Int’l.15.614.916.9
Washington St.California6.46.96.1
ArizonaColorado7.89.58.8
USCArizona St.13.914.914.5
OregonStanford14.516.415.9
Ole MissKentucky7.24.84.6
Kansas St.Texas Tech7.57.66.3
Ohio St.Rutgers33.032.437.0
Mississippi St.Texas A&M6.33.83.6
TCUOklahoma-3.8-4.1-4.6
IowaMichigan-7.4-7.3-9.0
TexasWest Virginia8.87.99.1
AuburnLSU-6.0-6.8-7.1
ArkansasAlabama-12.9-13.7-13.9
MissouriGeorgia-28.2-26.3-30.6
ToledoCentral Michigan3.42.62.2
BuffaloMiami (O)-4.3-4.5-4.8
ConnecticutFresno St.-20.6-19.0-24.0
AkronBowling Green-9.0-7.2-8.8
Kent St.Ohio9.29.28.3
Arkansas St.Louisiana-Monroe3.14.44.4
North TexasFlorida Atlantic-3.1-5.3-2.2
CharlotteUTEP-4.4-3.3-4.9
NebraskaIndiana3.54.04.8
Western KentuckyTroy11.611.112.3
RiceUAB-11.9-12.4-13.9
WyomingSan Jose St.-0.90.7-0.8

FBS vs. FCS Spreads

FBSFCSPiRate
Appalachian St.The Citadel32.4
FloridaEastern Washington27.4
MarshallGardner-Webb27.7
Western MichiganNew Hampshire20.4
South CarolinaSouth Carolina St.32.5
SyracuseWagner51.0

Teams With A Bye This Week

Colorado St.
Hawaii
Louisiana Tech
Miami (Fla.)
Nevada
Notre Dame
Southern Miss.
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia132.8
2Alabama131.3
3Ohio St.130.9
4Michigan123.9
5Minnesota121.3
6Clemson118.5
7Oklahoma118.3
8Tennessee117.7
9Penn St.117.6
10Utah117.0
11Oklahoma St.116.8
12NC State116.6
13L S U115.3
14Ole Miss115.1
15Wisconsin115.0
16Baylor114.9
17Arkansas114.8
18Pittsburgh114.0
19Florida St.113.9
20Mississippi St.113.8
21Iowa113.0
22Oregon113.0
23Purdue112.6
24Cincinnati112.6
25Kentucky112.5
26U S C112.5
27Notre Dame112.5
28Texas A&M112.2
29Texas112.2
30Kansas St.112.0
31Michigan St.111.9
32T C U111.6
33Maryland111.1
34Miami (Fla.)110.3
35BYU110.2
36Louisville109.9
37Washington109.6
38Oregon St.109.5
39Iowa St.109.4
40U C L A109.1
41Syracuse107.9
42Texas Tech107.8
43South Carolina107.4
44West Virginia106.6
45UCF106.5
46Wake Forest106.5
47Florida106.4
48North Carolina106.2
49Illinois105.9
50Auburn105.6
51SMU104.0
52Washington St.103.6
53Air Force103.4
54Kansas102.3
55W. Kentucky102.1
56Fresno St.101.9
57Houston101.5
58Missouri101.4
59Virginia101.4
60Arizona St.101.1
61Tulane100.7
62Nebraska100.6
63Stanford100.4
64California100.1
65East Carolina100.0
66Rutgers99.8
67Indiana99.5
68Boise St.99.3
69U A B99.1
70Army98.6
71Appalachian St.98.6
72Memphis98.0
73Boston College97.4
74Virginia Tech97.1
75Tulsa97.0
76Coastal Carolina96.9
77U T S A96.8
78Liberty96.8
79James Madison96.6
80N. Illinois96.4
81Northwestern95.3
82San Diego St.95.2
83Arizona95.2
84Marshall94.8
85Georgia St.94.5
86Toledo94.5
87Central Mich.94.3
88Miami (Ohio)93.8
89Vanderbilt93.7
90Troy93.0
91South Alabama92.9
92Louisiana92.7
93U N L V92.1
94USF92.0
95Kent St.91.5
96San Jose St.91.3
97Georgia Tech91.2
98Duke90.6
99Old Dominion90.5
100Ga. Southern90.5
101Western Mich.90.3
102Florida Atlantic90.2
103Southern Miss.90.1
104Colorado89.5
105Utah St.89.3
106Navy88.9
107Middle Tennessee88.3
108Wyoming87.9
109Buffalo86.7
110U T E P86.6
111Bowling Green86.4
112Eastern Mich.85.6
113Nevada85.4
114Arkansas St.85.1
115Ohio85.1
116New Mexico84.2
117North Texas84.2
118Rice83.9
119UL-Monroe83.6
120Ball St.83.6
121Colorado St.81.6
122Texas St.81.2
123Louisiana Tech81.0
124Temple80.9
125Charlotte79.8
126Connecticut77.7
127Akron76.0
128New Mexico St.75.2
129Hawaii71.2
130Massachusetts70.6
131Florida Int’l.61.9

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati112.2111.7113.8112.6
UCF106.1106.8106.7106.5
SMU104.3103.4104.3104.0
Houston101.7100.8102.0101.5
Tulane101.1100.5100.5100.7
East Carolina99.999.5100.6100.0
Memphis98.098.397.798.0
Tulsa97.296.697.397.0
USF92.891.591.792.0
Navy89.788.888.288.9
Temple80.883.078.780.9

AAC98.598.298.398.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson118.5118.3118.8118.5
NC State117.0116.0116.8116.6
Florida St.114.1113.8113.9113.9
Louisville110.6109.5109.6109.9
Syracuse108.7107.6107.3107.9
Wake Forest106.7106.4106.4106.5
Boston College97.498.796.297.4

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh114.9113.8113.4114.0
Miami (Fla.)110.8109.6110.4110.3
North Carolina106.3106.4106.1106.2
Virginia102.0102.0100.2101.4
Virginia Tech97.798.095.597.1
Georgia Tech92.191.790.091.2
Duke90.693.088.290.6

ACC106.2106.0105.2105.8

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma118.7117.7118.6118.3
Oklahoma St.117.4115.9117.2116.8
Baylor115.4114.4115.0114.9
Texas112.9111.8111.8112.2
Kansas St.112.7111.4111.9112.0
T C U112.4111.1111.5111.6
Iowa St.109.3109.3109.5109.4
Texas Tech108.1106.8108.6107.8
West Virginia107.1106.9105.7106.6
Kansas103.7102.1101.1102.3

Big 12111.7110.7111.1111.2

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.131.2129.7132.0130.9
Michigan124.4123.2124.2123.9
Penn St.117.7117.7117.6117.6
Michigan St.112.9111.7111.1111.9
Maryland111.2111.2111.1111.1
Rutgers101.1100.398.099.8
Indiana100.799.998.099.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota121.3120.8121.7121.3
Wisconsin115.5114.9114.6115.0
Iowa114.0112.9112.2113.0
Purdue113.6112.5111.5112.6
Illinois106.3106.9104.6105.9
Nebraska101.2100.999.8100.6
Northwestern95.696.793.795.3

Big Ten111.9111.4110.7111.3

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky101.3101.4103.7102.1
U A B98.598.7100.199.1
U T S A97.395.997.296.8
Florida Atlantic89.891.189.890.2
Middle Tennessee87.588.788.888.3
U T E P86.786.386.686.6
North Texas84.283.385.184.2
Rice84.183.883.783.9
Louisiana Tech80.982.279.781.0
Charlotte79.780.579.379.8
Florida Int’l.61.664.259.961.9

CUSA86.586.986.786.7

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame112.9111.3113.2112.5
BYU110.8109.2110.6110.2
Army98.498.898.798.6
Liberty95.697.297.596.8
Connecticut78.279.175.877.7
New Mexico St.74.776.674.375.2
Massachusetts71.371.868.670.6

Independents91.792.091.291.6

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)92.194.794.593.8
Kent St.90.692.891.191.5
Buffalo85.387.787.286.7
Bowling Green87.085.986.286.4
Ohio83.986.085.385.1
Akron76.076.775.476.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
N. Illinois96.296.696.596.4
Toledo93.794.795.294.5
Central Mich.92.894.695.594.3
Western Mich.89.890.690.590.3
Eastern Mich.85.486.085.485.6
Ball St.83.384.283.383.6

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Air Force102.9103.1104.3103.4
Boise St.99.598.599.999.3
Utah St.89.189.189.689.3
Wyoming86.788.988.287.9
New Mexico84.584.883.484.2
Colorado St.81.482.281.481.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.101.8101.1102.8101.9
San Diego St.95.294.995.495.2
U N L V92.690.792.992.1
San Jose St.90.691.292.091.3
Nevada84.986.684.885.4
Hawaii70.771.971.171.2

MWC90.090.290.590.2

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.8115.9118.5117.0
Oregon113.4112.8112.8113.0
U S C111.9112.5113.1112.5
Washington108.9109.8110.2109.6
Oregon St.109.4108.9110.1109.5
U C L A108.7108.6110.1109.1
Washington St.103.0103.7104.0103.6
Arizona St.101.0100.6101.6101.1
Stanford101.999.499.9100.4
California99.699.8101.0100.1
Arizona95.395.195.195.2
Colorado90.588.689.389.5

Pac-12105.0104.6105.5105.0

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia132.8131.4134.2132.8
Tennessee117.5117.6117.9117.7
Kentucky111.9112.6113.1112.5
South Carolina107.7106.9107.5107.4
Florida105.8107.3106.2106.4
Missouri101.6102.0100.6101.4
Vanderbilt93.994.792.493.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.1130.3132.4131.3
L S U115.7115.0115.1115.3
Ole Miss116.2114.4114.7115.1
Arkansas115.2113.6115.5114.8
Mississippi St.114.7113.2113.5113.8
Texas A&M111.4112.3112.9112.2
Auburn106.7105.2105.0105.6

SEC113.0112.6112.9112.9

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.97.298.899.698.6
Coastal Carolina95.697.197.996.9
James Madison94.396.399.296.6
Marshall94.495.394.794.8
Georgia St.94.193.496.194.5
Old Dominion90.590.690.490.5
Ga. Southern90.490.190.990.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy92.292.893.993.0
South Alabama92.192.893.992.9
Louisiana92.092.293.792.7
Southern Miss.89.790.390.390.1
Arkansas St.84.385.885.285.1
UL-Monroe83.783.983.383.6
Texas St.80.681.781.381.2

Sun Belt90.891.592.291.5

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.9
2Big Ten111.3
3Big 12111.2
4Atlantic Coast105.8
5Pac-12105.0
6American Athletic98.4
7Independents91.6
8Sun Belt91.5
9Mountain West90.2
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.7

Coming In October

As October leads the College Football worlds into mostly conference play, it’s time to start looking ahead at the Playoffs and Bowl Projections. The PiRates do it a bit differently from others. We don’t make our projections based on what each team has done to the present time, like most others. We first forecast the rest of the season and then make our projections based on what we believe the standings will be. Additionally, we plan to do our best to explain the inexact rules for where teams can go. No longer can you look and see who will finish 3rd in a conference and then know where the 3rd place team is automatically slotted to go bowling. It’s more like the 1960’s, where the bowls can choose which teams they want with the help of the conferences that have the tie-ins. In the case of many bowls, multiple conferences can be in the mix, and ESPN can steer the teams into the bowls they want them to appear so as to attempt to get their maximum TV ratings.

This Week’s Playoff Projections

1.) Alabama

2.) Ohio State

3.) Georgia

4.) USC

Top Group of 5 (For The Cotton Bowl Bid)

1.) Cincinnati

2.) Central Florida

3.) Coastal Carolina

4.) Air Force

5.) Middle Tennessee

September 18, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 22-24, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Virginia TechWest Virginia-2.5-1.5-3.1
Georgia St.Coastal Carolina6.44.16.5
SyracuseVirginia10.49.411.3
Air ForceNevada19.117.120.3
UTEPBoise St.-18.4-17.8-19.3
Iowa St.Baylor-2.6-1.3-1.5
KentuckyNorthern Illinois20.120.621.6
South CarolinaCharlotte30.028.129.9
TempleMassachusetts9.211.29.4
GeorgiaKent St.50.246.451.5
North CarolinaNotre Dame-1.30.8-1.4
Miami (Fla.)Middle Tennessee34.331.932.6
MichiganMaryland18.016.618.3
North Carolina St.Connecticut42.640.745.5
Penn St.Central Michigan29.727.626.7
Central FloridaGeorgia Tech17.118.119.9
LouisvilleSouth Florida16.916.916.6
Michigan St.Minnesota2.72.20.5
Wake ForestClemson-11.2-11.5-12.2
Ohio St.Wisconsin15.213.816.7
LibertyAkron24.025.327.3
Florida St.Boston College17.114.917.7
TennesseeFlorida15.614.416.1
CincinnatiIndiana13.213.317.7
East CarolinaNavy16.216.919.2
Georgia SouthernBall St.9.98.410.4
Eastern MichiganBuffalo9.57.67.7
Appalachian St.James Madison8.68.46.1
RutgersIowa-9.2-8.5-10.3
KansasDuke17.513.217.8
NorthwesternMiami (O)8.67.13.9
Old DominionArkansas St.9.88.49.0
ColoradoUCLA-12.0-13.9-14.7
BYUWyoming28.724.527.2
New Mexico St.Hawaii5.15.73.8
Arizona St.Utah-11.5-10.7-12.5
Oregon St.USC1.60.51.5
San Diego St.Toledo4.53.23.2
Washington St.Oregon-7.7-6.3-6.1
CaliforniaArizona4.85.06.2
WashingtonStanford8.011.711.3
TroyMarshall-1.5-2.2-0.4
South AlabamaLouisiana Tech11.010.014.0
Mississippi St.Bowling Green30.329.729.4
OklahomaKansas St.13.414.114.6
Ole MissTulsa23.922.722.5
AlabamaVanderbilt37.135.039.9
SMUTCU-5.7-4.9-3.9
Texas TechTexas-2.7-3.3-1.3
UL-MonroeLouisiana-9.6-9.9-12.7
Texas A&M (n)Arkansas-4.6-1.7-3.6
HoustonRice20.520.121.8
MemphisNorth Texas16.718.115.7
TulaneSouthern Miss.17.415.916.2
AuburnMissouri8.56.78.3
Western KentuckyFlorida Int’l.35.032.139.3
Utah St.UNLV1.03.41.7
PurdueFlorida Atlantic31.528.929.4
LSUNew Mexico33.832.533.9
San Jose St.Western Michigan-1.7-2.4-1.5

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
IllinoisChattanooga23.8
OhioFordham16.7
Texas St.Houston Baptist26.4
PittsburghRhode Island32.0
Colorado St.Sacramento St.-3.0
UTSATexas Southern37.2

Teams With Byes

Army
Fresno St.
Nebraska
Oklahoma St.
UAB

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia135.3
2Alabama129.5
3Ohio St.128.8
4Michigan124.6
5Oklahoma120.7
6Clemson119.7
7Tennessee118.2
8Penn St.118.2
9NC State117.1
10Wisconsin116.6
11Oklahoma St.116.5
12Minnesota116.4
13Utah116.3
14Ole Miss115.8
15Purdue115.2
16Michigan St.115.2
17Arkansas115.1
18L S U114.9
19Miami (Fla.)114.8
20Baylor114.6
21Pittsburgh114.3
22Mississippi St.113.5
23Kentucky113.4
24Oregon113.0
25Florida St.112.5
26Texas112.5
27Iowa112.4
28Cincinnati112.2
29Texas A&M111.8
30U S C111.6
31Notre Dame111.3
32BYU111.0
33T C U110.7
34Maryland110.0
35Oregon St.109.8
36Iowa St.109.7
37Kansas St.109.6
38Washington108.7
39Syracuse108.3
40Louisville108.1
41U C L A107.7
42North Carolina107.7
43Texas Tech107.5
44South Carolina107.0
45UCF106.6
46Auburn106.2
47Florida105.9
48Wake Forest105.6
49Illinois105.5
50West Virginia104.5
51SMU104.4
52Boise St.104.2
53Washington St.103.3
54Kansas102.8
55Tulane102.7
56Houston102.4
57Air Force102.3
58Arizona St.101.8
59Fresno St.101.7
60East Carolina101.7
61Stanford101.4
62Missouri101.4
63Virginia100.9
64Nebraska100.3
65Rutgers100.1
66Indiana99.9
67Appalachian St.99.7
68Virginia Tech99.6
69U A B98.9
70Boston College98.9
71California98.7
72W. Kentucky98.5
73Army98.4
74Memphis98.3
75Liberty98.2
76U T S A97.1
77Georgia St.96.8
78Northwestern96.6
79Arizona96.3
80Marshall95.8
81Tulsa95.8
82N. Illinois95.6
83San Diego St.95.2
84Vanderbilt95.2
85James Madison95.0
86Louisiana94.8
87Toledo94.5
88USF94.3
89Coastal Carolina93.6
90Western Mich.93.2
91Central Mich.93.2
92Miami (Ohio)92.5
93Troy92.0
94South Alabama91.4
95Georgia Tech91.2
96Colorado91.2
97U N L V91.2
98Old Dominion90.8
99Ga. Southern90.3
100Utah St.90.2
101Duke89.6
102Kent St.89.0
103Eastern Mich.88.8
104San Jose St.88.3
105Florida Atlantic88.3
106Southern Miss.88.1
107Navy87.2
108Wyoming87.2
109Bowling Green86.7
110Nevada86.5
111Ohio85.4
112Middle Tennessee84.8
113Arkansas St.84.8
114New Mexico84.6
115Colorado St.84.1
116North Texas83.9
117Ball St.83.7
118Buffalo83.5
119U T E P83.2
120Rice82.6
121Louisiana Tech82.2
122UL-Monroe82.0
123Texas St.80.9
124Charlotte80.2
125Temple79.6
126Connecticut77.2
127Akron75.1
128New Mexico St.73.9
129Hawaii72.5
130Massachusetts72.2
131Florida Int’l.65.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati111.8111.2113.5112.2
UCF106.1106.8106.8106.6
SMU104.5103.8104.9104.4
Tulane103.1102.4102.5102.7
Houston102.5101.7103.1102.4
East Carolina101.4101.1102.5101.7
Memphis98.298.698.098.3
Tulsa96.095.496.095.8
USF95.093.894.194.3
Navy88.287.286.387.2
Temple79.681.977.379.6

AAC98.898.598.698.6

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson119.6119.5120.1119.7
NC State117.4116.4117.5117.1
Florida St.112.8112.2112.4112.5
Syracuse109.1108.0107.9108.3
Louisville108.9107.7107.7108.1
Wake Forest105.9105.5105.4105.6
Boston College98.7100.397.798.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Fla.)115.3114.1114.9114.8
Pittsburgh115.2114.1113.7114.3
North Carolina107.6107.9107.6107.7
Virginia101.6101.699.6100.9
Virginia Tech100.1100.698.099.6
Georgia Tech92.191.789.991.2
Duke89.692.287.089.6

ACC106.7106.5105.7106.3

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma120.9120.1121.1120.7
Oklahoma St.117.1115.6116.9116.5
Baylor115.2114.0114.5114.6
Texas113.1112.2112.1112.5
T C U111.7110.2110.4110.7
Iowa St.109.5109.7110.0109.7
Kansas St.110.5109.0109.4109.6
Texas Tech107.9106.4108.3107.5
West Virginia105.1104.7103.6104.5
Kansas104.2102.4101.8102.8

Big 12111.5110.4110.8110.9

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.129.2127.5129.9128.8
Michigan125.0123.8125.0124.6
Penn St.118.3118.2118.1118.2
Michigan St.116.2115.1114.4115.2
Maryland110.1110.1109.8110.0
Rutgers101.3100.798.3100.1
Indiana101.1100.498.399.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin117.0116.6116.2116.6
Minnesota116.5115.9116.9116.4
Purdue116.3115.1114.2115.2
Iowa113.5112.2111.6112.4
Illinois105.9106.5104.2105.5
Nebraska100.9100.699.5100.3
Northwestern96.998.094.896.6

Big Ten112.0111.5110.8111.4

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B98.398.599.998.9
W. Kentucky97.797.6100.298.5
U T S A97.696.297.597.1
Florida Atlantic87.889.287.888.3
Middle Tennessee84.085.285.384.8
North Texas84.083.084.883.9
U T E P83.483.083.183.2
Rice83.082.682.382.6
Louisiana Tech82.183.680.982.2
Charlotte79.980.979.780.2
Florida Int’l.65.268.063.465.5

CUSA85.786.285.985.9

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame111.9110.1112.0111.3
BYU111.6109.8111.5111.0
Army98.298.698.598.4
Liberty96.898.699.198.2
Connecticut77.878.775.177.2
New Mexico St.73.575.372.873.9
Massachusetts72.973.370.472.2

Independents91.892.191.391.7

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)90.893.493.492.5
Kent St.88.190.488.489.0
Bowling Green87.286.286.686.7
Ohio84.286.385.685.4
Buffalo82.184.684.083.5
Akron75.375.874.375.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
N. Illinois95.595.895.595.6
Toledo93.794.795.294.5
Western Mich.92.693.693.593.2
Central Mich.91.693.594.493.2
Eastern Mich.88.689.188.688.8
Ball St.83.484.583.483.7

MAC87.889.088.688.4

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.3103.3104.9104.2
Air Force101.9101.9103.2102.3
Utah St.89.990.190.690.2
Wyoming85.988.387.387.2
New Mexico84.785.283.884.6
Colorado St.83.984.783.984.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.101.6100.9102.6101.7
San Diego St.95.294.995.495.2
U N L V91.889.791.991.2
San Jose St.87.888.289.088.3
Nevada85.987.885.986.5
Hawaii71.973.272.672.5

MWC90.490.790.990.7

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.2115.1117.8116.3
Oregon113.4112.8112.8113.0
U S C111.1111.7112.1111.6
Oregon St.109.7109.2110.6109.8
Washington107.9108.9109.2108.7
U C L A107.3107.2108.7107.7
Washington St.102.7103.4103.7103.3
Arizona St.101.6101.4102.3101.8
Stanford102.9100.3100.9101.4
California98.298.399.598.7
Arizona96.496.396.396.3
Colorado92.290.391.091.2

Pac-12105.0104.6105.4105.0

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia135.3133.8136.9135.3
Tennessee118.0118.1118.6118.2
Kentucky112.6113.4114.1113.4
South Carolina107.5106.5107.1107.0
Florida105.3106.8105.5105.9
Missouri101.6102.0100.4101.4
Vanderbilt95.396.393.895.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.4128.4130.7129.5
Ole Miss116.9115.1115.5115.8
Arkansas115.6113.8116.0115.1
L S U115.5114.6114.7114.9
Mississippi St.114.5112.9113.1113.5
Texas A&M111.0112.1112.4111.8
Auburn107.2105.7105.7106.2

SEC113.3112.8113.2113.1

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.98.3100.0100.799.7
Georgia St.96.395.598.596.8
Marshall95.396.495.795.8
James Madison92.794.697.695.0
Coastal Carolina92.494.094.593.6
Old Dominion90.890.990.890.8
Ga. Southern90.389.890.890.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana93.994.296.194.8
Troy91.391.792.992.0
South Alabama90.691.192.491.4
Southern Miss.87.788.488.388.1
Arkansas St.84.085.584.884.8
UL-Monroe82.382.481.482.0
Texas St.80.381.481.080.9

Sun Belt90.591.191.891.1

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.1
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12110.9
4Atlantic Coast106.3
5Pac-12105.0
6American Athletic98.6
7Independents91.7
8Sun Belt91.1
9Mountain West90.7
10Mid-American88.4
11Conference USA85.9

Playoff Projections

1.) Georgia

2.) Ohio St.

3.) Alabama

4.) Oklahoma

Most Likely Top Group of 5 Team

For Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Game

1.) Coastal Carolina

2.) Cincinnati

3.) Appalachian St.

4.) Tulane

September 11, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 16-17, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:28 am

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LouisvilleFlorida St.-0.5-1.1-0.9
WyomingAir Force-17.9-15.3-18.2
Miami (O)Cincinnati-18.8-15.0-17.7
MichiganConnecticut48.745.951.5
SyracusePurdue-5.1-4.9-4.3
TempleRutgers-22.8-19.7-22.5
BaylorTexas St.37.535.236.0
IndianaWestern Kentucky6.66.20.9
South CarolinaGeorgia-20.7-19.7-22.6
NebraskaOklahoma-11.5-10.6-12.9
Coastal CarolinaBuffalo13.512.414.2
Iowa St.Ohio28.025.426.3
New MexicoUTEP0.71.5-0.5
VirginiaOld Dominion13.914.011.9
UCLASouth Alabama22.121.522.2
Notre DameCalifornia18.116.117.2
UNLVNorth Texas4.83.43.5
Kansas St.Tulane15.014.214.7
WisconsinNew Mexico St.43.941.043.3
AuburnPenn St.-2.8-4.2-3.6
Northern IllinoisVanderbilt5.54.87.8
MinnesotaColorado23.524.825.1
Georgia TechOle Miss-16.4-14.6-16.8
OregonBYU0.82.1-0.1
UABGeorgia Southern10.210.811.2
Appalachian St.Troy10.111.811.6
HoustonKansas6.48.010.7
AlabamaUL-Monroe49.548.051.7
Washington St.Colorado St.19.219.019.8
Wake ForestLiberty14.612.111.4
Bowling GreenMarshall-6.3-8.9-7.8
LSUMississippi St.1.22.01.4
Ohio St.Toledo34.531.133.1
TennesseeAkron43.542.844.5
Georgia St.Charlotte23.621.626.8
North Carolina St.Texas Tech12.513.012.2
MemphisArkansas St.16.615.515.8
Florida AtlanticCentral Florida-13.9-12.8-14.2
FloridaSouth Florida13.917.315.5
MarylandSMU8.89.78.0
WashingtonMichigan St.-10.1-7.8-6.8
Western MichiganPittsburgh-20.1-17.6-16.9
IowaNevada31.127.428.9
RiceLousiana-13.9-15.0-17.6
TexasUTSA18.318.717.2
ClemsonLouisiana Tech41.940.344.2
Texas A&MMiami (Fla.)-2.60.1-1.0
UtahSan Diego St.23.622.325.0
USCFresno St.9.110.48.7
Arizona St.Eastern Michigan21.720.923.0

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
ArizonaNorth Dakota St.3.3
ArkansasMissouri St.31.3
ArmyVillanova11.8
Ball St.Murray St.21.6
Boise St.UT-Martin24.3
Boston CollegeMaine27.1
Central MichiganBucknell37.3
DukeNorth Carolina A&T25.4
East CarolinaCampbell30.4
HawaiiDuquesne12.0
Kent St.Long Island28.8
KentuckyYoungstown St.33.7
MassachusettsStony Brook-1.0
Middle TennesseeTennessee St.24.6
MissouriAbilene Christian28.4
NorthwesternSouthern Illinois18.6
Oklahoma St.Arkansas-Pine Bluff54.3
Oregon St.Montana St.18.3
Southern Miss.Northwestern St.25.4
TulsaJacksonville St.20.5
Virginia TechWofford31.2
West VirginiaTowson St.32.6

Teams With Bye Weeks

Navy
North Carolina
TCU
Illinois
Florida Int’l.
Utah St.
San Jose St.
Stanford
James Madison

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia133.2
2Alabama129.1
3Ohio St.126.6
4Michigan124.0
5Clemson120.5
6Oklahoma118.5
7Michigan St.117.6
8NC State117.1
9Tennessee117.0
10Oklahoma St.116.4
11Utah116.1
12Arkansas115.8
13Purdue115.7
14Penn St.115.6
15Miami (Fla.)115.5
16Wisconsin115.3
17Mississippi St.114.9
18Baylor114.6
19Minnesota114.5
20Pittsburgh114.1
21Kentucky113.6
22L S U113.5
23BYU113.0
24Ole Miss113.0
25Iowa112.5
26Texas112.3
27Notre Dame112.2
28Florida St.112.2
29Kansas St.112.0
30Cincinnati111.9
31Texas A&M111.4
32Oregon111.0
33T C U110.4
34Maryland110.1
35U S C109.9
36U C L A109.4
37Iowa St.109.3
38South Carolina109.2
39Auburn109.1
40Oregon St.108.6
41Louisville108.3
42Syracuse107.9
43Texas Tech107.5
44North Carolina107.4
45Florida107.0
46Wake Forest106.8
47Washington106.3
48UCF105.2
49Illinois105.2
50Arizona St.105.1
51Houston105.0
52Air Force104.6
53SMU104.3
54Boise St.104.1
55Nebraska103.8
56West Virginia103.5
57Fresno St.103.5
58Missouri102.0
59Rutgers101.9
60Washington St.101.9
61Virginia101.7
62East Carolina101.4
63Stanford101.1
64Indiana100.4
65Tulane100.3
66Appalachian St.100.2
67Virginia Tech100.0
68Kansas99.7
69Georgia St.99.5
70Boston College99.2
71Northwestern98.9
72U A B98.7
73Memphis98.5
74W. Kentucky98.3
75California98.1
76Louisiana98.0
77U T S A97.3
78Army97.2
79N. Illinois97.1
80Toledo96.7
81Liberty96.6
82Arizona96.3
83Marshall96.3
84San Diego St.95.5
85Tulsa94.9
86James Madison94.8
87Georgia Tech94.0
88Coastal Carolina93.8
89Vanderbilt93.6
90USF93.4
91Western Mich.93.4
92Colorado93.1
93Central Mich.93.0
94Miami (Ohio)92.8
95Troy91.5
96Ga. Southern90.5
97South Alabama90.4
98Old Dominion90.4
99Utah St.90.0
100Florida Atlantic89.6
101Duke89.4
102U N L V88.4
103Kent St.88.3
104San Jose St.88.1
105Navy87.0
106North Texas87.0
107Southern Miss.86.6
108Nevada86.4
109Eastern Mich.86.2
110Bowling Green86.2
111Ohio85.8
112Colorado St.85.5
113U T E P85.1
114Wyoming84.9
115Arkansas St.84.5
116Middle Tennessee84.0
117Ball St.83.4
118Buffalo83.4
119New Mexico83.2
120UL-Monroe82.4
121Louisiana Tech81.4
122Texas St.80.9
123Rice79.9
124Connecticut78.3
125Temple78.3
126Charlotte78.0
127Akron76.4
128New Mexico St.75.5
129Hawaii72.6
130Massachusetts71.5
131Florida Int’l.65.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati111.7110.8113.3111.9
UCF104.9105.4105.4105.2
Houston104.8104.3106.0105.0
SMU104.4103.6104.8104.3
East Carolina101.1100.8102.2101.4
Tulane100.8100.1100.1100.3
Memphis98.498.898.398.5
Tulsa95.194.595.194.9
USF94.492.893.293.4
Navy88.087.086.187.0
Temple78.380.775.878.3

AAC98.498.198.298.2

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.3120.2121.1120.5
NC State117.4116.4117.5117.1
Florida St.112.6112.0112.0112.2
Louisville109.1107.9108.1108.3
Syracuse108.7107.6107.4107.9
Wake Forest107.2106.7106.6106.8
Boston College99.0100.698.099.2

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Fla.)116.1114.7115.8115.5
Pittsburgh115.2113.9113.3114.1
North Carolina107.3107.6107.3107.4
Virginia102.3102.4100.3101.7
Virginia Tech100.5101.098.4100.0
Georgia Tech94.894.692.894.0
Duke89.492.086.889.4

ACC107.1107.0106.1106.7

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma118.8117.8118.9118.5
Oklahoma St.117.0115.5116.8116.4
Baylor115.3114.0114.5114.6
Texas113.0112.1111.9112.3
Kansas St.112.8111.3111.8112.0
T C U111.4109.9110.1110.4
Iowa St.109.3109.2109.5109.3
Texas Tech107.9106.4108.3107.5
West Virginia104.1103.7102.6103.5
Kansas101.499.398.499.7

Big 12111.1109.9110.3110.4

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.127.2125.2127.6126.6
Michigan124.5123.0124.5124.0
Michigan St.118.6117.4116.7117.6
Penn St.115.8115.7115.4115.6
Maryland110.2110.3109.9110.1
Rutgers103.1102.4100.3101.9
Indiana101.6101.098.6100.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Purdue116.7115.5114.7115.7
Wisconsin115.8115.1114.8115.3
Minnesota114.6114.0115.0114.5
Iowa113.7112.2111.7112.5
Illinois105.6106.2103.9105.2
Nebraska104.3104.2103.0103.8
Northwestern99.2100.397.198.9

Big Ten112.2111.6110.9111.6

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B98.198.399.798.7
W. Kentucky97.597.3100.298.3
U T S A97.796.397.797.3
Florida Atlantic89.090.689.289.6
North Texas86.986.188.087.0
U T E P85.284.885.285.1
Middle Tennessee83.284.484.584.0
Louisiana Tech81.482.979.981.4
Rice80.579.979.479.9
Charlotte77.878.977.278.0
Florida Int’l.65.067.863.265.3

CUSA85.786.185.985.9

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanAverageAverage
BYU113.6111.7113.7113.0
Notre Dame112.8110.9113.0112.2
Army97.097.497.397.2
Liberty95.297.197.696.6
Connecticut78.880.076.178.3
New Mexico St.75.077.174.575.5
Massachusetts72.272.669.771.5
Independents92.192.491.792.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)90.993.893.692.8
Kent St.87.489.787.788.3
Bowling Green86.985.686.086.2
Ohio84.486.886.185.8
Buffalo82.084.683.783.4
Akron76.477.175.776.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
N. Illinois96.997.297.397.1
Toledo95.797.097.596.7
Western Mich.92.693.893.993.4
Central Mich.91.493.394.293.0
Eastern Mich.86.186.685.886.2
Ball St.83.184.283.183.4

MAC87.889.188.788.6

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Air Force104.1104.0105.6104.6
Boise St.104.2103.2104.8104.1
Utah St.89.789.990.490.0
Colorado St.85.286.185.485.5
Wyoming83.786.284.984.9
New Mexico83.483.982.283.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.103.3102.6104.5103.5
San Diego St.95.495.395.695.5
U N L V89.286.989.088.4
San Jose St.87.688.088.888.1
Nevada85.787.885.886.4
Hawaii72.073.372.772.6

MWC90.390.690.890.6

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.0114.7117.6116.1
Oregon111.4110.9110.6111.0
U S C109.4110.0110.2109.9
U C L A108.9108.8110.5109.4
Oregon St.108.5108.0109.4108.6
Washington105.5106.6106.9106.3
Arizona St.104.8104.6105.8105.1
Washington St.101.4102.0102.2101.9
Stanford102.6100.0100.6101.1
California97.697.898.898.1
Arizona96.496.396.396.3
Colorado94.192.292.993.1

Pac-12104.7104.3105.2104.7

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia133.2131.5134.8133.2
Tennessee116.9116.8117.2117.0
Kentucky112.8113.6114.3113.6
South Carolina109.6108.8109.2109.2
Florida106.2108.1106.7107.0
Missouri102.2102.6101.0102.0
Vanderbilt93.994.992.093.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.1127.9130.4129.1
Arkansas116.3114.5116.7115.8
Mississippi St.115.9114.3114.7114.9
L S U114.1113.2113.1113.5
Ole Miss114.2112.2112.6113.0
Texas A&M110.5111.8111.8111.4
Auburn110.0108.5108.7109.1

SEC113.2112.8113.1113.0

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.98.6100.5101.3100.2
Georgia St.98.998.0101.599.5
Marshall95.697.096.396.3
James Madison92.594.497.494.8
Coastal Carolina92.594.094.893.8
Ga. Southern90.590.091.090.5
Old Dominion90.490.490.490.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana96.997.499.598.0
Troy91.091.292.391.5
South Alabama89.790.291.390.4
Southern Miss.86.286.986.886.6
Arkansas St.83.885.384.584.5
UL-Monroe82.682.981.782.4
Texas St.80.281.481.080.9

Sun Belt90.791.492.191.4

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.0
2Big Ten111.6
3Big 12110.4
4Atlantic Coast106.7
5Pac-12104.7
6American Athletic98.2
7Independents92.1
8Sun Belt91.4
9Mountain West90.6
10Mid-American88.6
11Conference USA85.9

A Tale of Two Conferences

In the mid 1990’s, Conference USA formed when the old Metro Conference dissolved. The league was founded to combine two former basketball conferences into a Midwestern league. At the time, it also had some rather successful football teams. Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Southern Miss., UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, East Carolina, and Army were all early members of the new league. Then, TCU joined and had a top 5 season in the early 2000’s. The league saw early success, and with that, the Big East raided CUSA and took Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida. Seeing the writing on the wall, TCU bolted for the Mountain West, where an incredible rivalry with Boise State ensued. CUSA then expanded with new members, making the league quite relevant, as the new teams provided numerous upsets over Power Conference opponents. Central Florida, SMU, Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, and Marshall joined the league and all found some successful seasons. Then, the American Athletic Conference formed, and once again, CUSA lost some significant teams in Memphis, Tulane, Houston, Central Florida, SMU, and Tulsa.

The Sun Belt Conference began as a basketball league back in the mid-1970’s, and in its early years, the league jumped over many others in the Low and Mid-Major area. There was a year where four SBC teams made the NCAA Tournament. The league saw teams come and go, as it struggled financially. They even kicked New Orleans out of the conference because the Privateers did not have a Division 1 level gymnasium.

The Sun Belt decided to sponsor football beginning in the early part of this century. Almost annually, the makeup of the league changed. Teams as far west as Utah State and Idaho joined the conference at times, as they played in the same league with teams from Florida. When Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, and UAB all left the Sun Belt for CUSA in a matter of a couple of seasons, it looked like CUSA would force the SBC back to a basketball conference, while CUSA continued to thrive with some respectable programs.

Then, something happened. About the time that the SEC was becoming a super league and superior to all others, and all their member schools began recruiting nationally instead of regionally, a lot of really good Southeastern recruits started to lose out to the elite 5-star and high 4-star talents from all over America. These low 4-star and 3-star players had once filled SEC rosters, but now they needed to find other schools. Many of them chose to stay near their homes, and that mean Sun Belt Conference schools.

Schools like Troy, Georgia Southern, and what was still known as Louisiana-Lafayette started getting players that used to go to Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. The addition of Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State to the league as they moved to FBS brought some solid former FCS programs that further strengthened this league. All of a sudden, the SBC passed CUSA, and it was CUSA that almost died when the 2021 expansion routlette began. Texas and Oklahoma decided to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, so the Big 12 robbed the AAC of its three best schools, and then the AAC robbed CUSA of its largest market schools. Three schools, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss quickly petitioned the Sun Belt for admission and were fast-tracked. Then the league found a real diamond in the rough in James Madison. Meanwhile, CUSA had to look for crumbs just to survive. They secured markers for FCS schools Jacksonville State and Sam Houston, and then added Liberty and New Mexico State as future members. It was almost too late, because both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee came very close to leaving for the Mid-American Conference.

In just five or six years, the Sun Belt rose from weakeast FBS league by far to possibly the strongest. Once Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida leave the American, the SBC should be better than the new AAC with CUSA teams. It has already passed the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Conference USA football as a whole might not be as strong as the FCS Missouri Valley Football Conference once the league is reduced to ashes by the departures of its top markets.

September 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 9-10, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:58 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Central FloridaLouisville-0.41.71.7
New MexicoBoise St.-17.8-16.0-19.8
Ohio St.Arkansas St.48.845.148.9
Georgia St.North Carolina-5.8-7.1-2.7
Penn St.Ohio34.331.031.2
ArmyUTSA2.74.93.4
Miami (Fla.)Southern Miss.34.532.433.8
NorthwesternDuke17.816.318.8
Kansas St.Missouri10.48.810.3
ArkansasSouth Carolina9.17.79.5
TexasAlabama-15.6-15.5-18.8
VanderbiltWake Forest-8.4-6.4-9.5
Central MichiganSouth Alabama9.010.811.0
Ball St.Western Michigan-7.0-7.2-8.5
Notre DameMarshall28.325.127.8
CharlotteMaryland-29.2-27.9-29.2
PittsburghTennessee1.50.2-0.7
NavyMemphis-3.2-4.2-4.4
Air ForceColorado7.39.19.8
Texas A&MAppalachian St.20.019.618.8
WisconsinWashington St.22.321.020.5
Colorado St.Middle Tennessee10.19.99.2
Michigan St.Akron44.341.842.4
IllinoisVirginia3.13.42.7
CaliforniaUNLV11.814.713.6
Texas TechHouston5.94.95.1
IowaIowa St.8.77.26.5
East CarolinaOld Dominion12.612.113.5
West VirginiaKansas6.88.99.1
LibertyUAB-1.70.1-1.2
FloridaKentucky-2.2-1.1-2.8
ToledoMassachusetts21.121.925.6
ConnecticutSyracuse-26.3-23.5-27.7
OklahomaKent St.35.031.435.0
LouisianaEastern Michigan10.410.213.3
TulsaNorthern Illinois1.0-0.10.4
Texas St.Florida Int’l.14.812.617.2
AuburnSan Jose St.28.226.426.1
NebraskaGeorgia Southern23.023.621.2
StanfordUSC-1.4-5.0-4.2
Oklahoma St.Arizona St.14.913.413.2
MichiganHawaii55.552.654.8
Virginia TechBoston College1.70.3-0.2
UTEPNew Mexico St.12.89.913.9
BYUBaylor1.20.51.9
Fresno St.Oregon St.-2.0-2.3-1.5
ArizonaMississippi St.-15.9-13.9-14.4

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
MinnesotaWestern Illinois32.5
North Carolina St.Charleston Southern34.1
UtahSouthern Utah34.8
TempleLafayette9.7
ClemsonFurman34.2
CincinnatiKennesaw St.29.7
GeorgiaSamford42.3
WashingtonPortland St.23.8
PurdueIndiana St.30.1
RutgersWagner38.4
WyomingNorthern Colorado22.4
Bowling GreenEastern Kentucky5.8
James MadisonNorfolk St.32.7
UCLAAlabama St.36.8
NevadaIncarnate Word10.2
BuffaloHoly Cross9.7
Miami (O)Robert Morris29.2
Coastal CarolinaGardner-Webb29.5
Florida AtlanticSoutheast Louisiana10.1
Ole MissCentral Arkansas29.7
Georgia TechWestern Carolina18.8
Utah St.Weber St.9.8
TulaneAlcorn St.23.7
SMULamar39.5
South FloridaHoward26.6
TroyAlabama A&M25.3
Louisiana TechStephen F. Austin10.1
LSUSouthern32.4
North TexasTexas Southern27.1
RiceMcNeese St.6.6
TCUTarleton31.2
IndianaIdaho21.5
San Diego St.Idaho St.25.9
UL-MonroeNicholls St.7.5
OregonEastern Washington21.6

Bye Weeks

Florida St.
Western Kentucky

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia133.4
2Alabama130.8
3Ohio St.127.9
4Michigan123.7
5Clemson120.8
6Oklahoma118.8
7Wisconsin117.9
8Notre Dame117.2
9Michigan St.117.1
10Tennessee116.9
11NC State116.4
12Miami (Fla.)116.4
13Oklahoma St.116.2
14Arkansas115.4
15Penn St.115.3
16Utah115.1
17Baylor114.7
18Purdue114.7
19Mississippi St.114.5
20Texas A&M114.4
21Pittsburgh114.2
22Iowa114.0
23Minnesota113.7
24BYU112.9
25Kentucky112.8
26L S U112.2
27Florida St.111.9
28Ole Miss111.5
29Cincinnati111.4
30Texas111.2
31Auburn110.9
32Kansas St.110.7
33T C U109.7
34Maryland109.7
35South Carolina109.6
36U C L A109.3
37U S C108.7
38Iowa St.108.5
39Oregon St.108.5
40Oregon108.5
41Louisville107.9
42Texas Tech107.8
43Florida107.8
44Nebraska107.4
45North Carolina107.3
46Syracuse107.3
47UCF105.9
48Wake Forest105.5
49Washington105.3
50Arizona St.105.3
51Houston105.0
52SMU105.0
53West Virginia104.1
54Boise St.104.0
55Missouri103.9
56Fresno St.103.6
57Illinois103.5
58Virginia103.4
59Air Force102.4
60Stanford102.2
61Northwestern101.2
62East Carolina101.0
63Indiana100.9
64Boston College100.8
65Rutgers100.7
66Georgia St.99.6
67Washington St.99.6
68U A B99.4
69Kansas98.8
70Tulane98.5
71California98.4
72Virginia Tech98.4
73W. Kentucky98.1
74Appalachian St.98.0
75Army97.6
76N. Illinois97.3
77U T S A96.9
78Arizona96.8
79Louisiana96.6
80Memphis96.3
81Liberty96.0
82Colorado95.7
83Central Mich.95.6
84Coastal Carolina95.5
85San Diego St.95.3
86Vanderbilt94.9
87Tulsa94.7
88Toledo94.6
89Georgia Tech94.1
90USF93.7
91Utah St.93.5
92James Madison93.5
93Miami (Ohio)93.5
94Western Mich.93.5
95Marshall93.1
96Troy91.6
97Old Dominion90.8
98Navy89.9
99Nevada88.6
100Colorado St.88.5
101Florida Atlantic88.2
102U N L V88.1
103Kent St.88.0
104Ga. Southern87.9
105Eastern Mich.87.8
106South Alabama87.8
107San Jose St.87.0
108Bowling Green86.9
109North Texas86.8
110Duke86.5
111Ohio86.1
112Southern Miss.85.8
113U T E P85.4
114Wyoming84.9
115Buffalo84.9
116Ball St.83.4
117Arkansas St.83.3
118New Mexico83.2
119Middle Tennessee81.8
120UL-Monroe81.2
121Louisiana Tech80.2
122Texas St.79.5
123Connecticut78.9
124Charlotte78.4
125Temple78.0
126Rice77.9
127Akron77.2
128New Mexico St.75.2
129Massachusetts74.3
130Hawaii72.9
131Florida Int’l.67.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati111.2110.3112.8111.4
UCF105.4106.1106.2105.9
Houston104.8104.3106.0105.0
SMU105.1104.3105.5105.0
East Carolina100.8100.4101.8101.0
Tulane99.098.398.398.5
Memphis96.496.696.096.3
Tulsa95.094.394.994.7
USF94.793.193.593.7
Navy90.789.989.189.9
Temple78.080.475.578.0

AAC98.398.098.298.1

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.6120.5121.4120.8
NC State116.7115.7116.8116.4
Florida St.112.3111.7111.7111.9
Louisville108.8107.4107.5107.9
Syracuse108.2106.8106.8107.3
Wake Forest106.0105.3105.3105.5
Boston College100.4102.299.8100.8

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Fla.)116.9115.5116.7116.4
Pittsburgh115.3114.0113.4114.2
North Carolina107.3107.6107.0107.3
Virginia103.9104.1102.2103.4
Virginia Tech99.199.496.698.4
Georgia Tech94.994.792.994.1
Duke86.689.283.786.5

ACC106.9106.7105.8106.5

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma119.1117.9119.3118.8
Oklahoma St.116.9115.2116.4116.2
Baylor115.4114.1114.6114.7
Texas112.0111.0110.5111.2
Kansas St.111.6110.2110.4110.7
T C U110.7109.2109.4109.7
Iowa St.108.5108.4108.7108.5
Texas Tech108.2106.7108.6107.8
West Virginia104.5104.3103.4104.1
Kansas100.798.497.398.8
Big 12110.7109.5109.9110.0

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.128.4126.3129.0127.9
Michigan124.2122.7124.2123.7
Michigan St.118.3116.8116.1117.1
Penn St.115.7115.3114.9115.3
Maryland109.9109.8109.4109.7
Indiana102.1101.599.1100.9
Rutgers101.9101.299.1100.7
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin118.4117.7117.4117.9
Purdue115.7114.5113.7114.7
Iowa115.2113.7113.2114.0
Minnesota113.8113.2114.2113.7
Nebraska107.9107.9106.6107.4
Illinois104.0104.5102.0103.5
Northwestern101.4102.599.6101.2

Big Ten112.6112.0111.3112.0

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B98.798.9100.599.4
W. Kentucky97.397.1100.098.1
U T S A97.595.997.396.9
Florida Atlantic87.689.287.888.2
North Texas86.785.987.886.8
U T E P85.584.985.885.4
Middle Tennessee81.082.182.281.8
Louisiana Tech80.281.778.780.2
Charlotte78.179.477.778.4
Rice78.577.977.477.9
Florida Int’l.66.769.865.067.2

CUSA85.385.785.585.5

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame117.8115.9118.0117.2
BYU113.5111.6113.6112.9
Army97.297.897.797.6
Liberty94.696.596.896.0
Connecticut79.380.876.778.9
New Mexico St.74.777.073.975.2
Massachusetts75.075.572.474.3

Independents93.293.692.793.2

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)91.694.594.393.5
Kent St.87.189.687.388.0
Bowling Green87.686.386.786.9
Ohio84.587.286.686.1
Buffalo83.586.185.284.9
Akron77.078.076.677.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
N. Illinois97.097.497.597.3
Central Mich.93.895.997.095.6
Toledo93.694.895.594.6
Western Mich.92.693.894.093.5
Eastern Mich.87.788.387.487.8
Ball St.83.184.283.083.4

MAC88.389.789.389.1

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.2103.0104.9104.0
Air Force102.0101.9103.4102.4
Utah St.93.293.493.993.5
Colorado St.88.189.188.488.5
Wyoming83.786.284.984.9
New Mexico83.484.182.183.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.103.4102.7104.7103.6
San Diego St.95.295.195.495.3
Nevada87.990.088.088.6
U N L V89.086.588.688.1
San Jose St.86.586.987.687.0
Hawaii72.373.673.072.9

MWC90.791.091.291.0

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah115.0113.7116.6115.1
U C L A108.8108.7110.4109.3
U S C108.2109.0109.0108.7
Oregon St.108.4107.9109.2108.5
Oregon108.9108.4108.1108.5
Washington104.5105.6105.9105.3
Arizona St.104.9104.9106.2105.3
Stanford103.8101.0101.8102.2
Washington St.99.199.799.999.6
California97.898.299.298.4
Arizona96.796.896.896.8
Colorado96.794.895.695.7

Pac-12104.4104.1104.9104.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia133.4131.7135.0133.4
Tennessee116.8116.7117.1116.9
Kentucky112.1112.9113.4112.8
South Carolina109.9109.3109.7109.6
Florida106.9108.8107.6107.8
Missouri104.1104.4103.1103.9
Vanderbilt95.196.393.394.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.6129.5132.3130.8
Arkansas116.0114.0116.2115.4
Mississippi St.115.6113.8114.2114.5
Texas A&M113.5114.9114.9114.4
L S U112.8111.9111.8112.2
Ole Miss112.7110.7111.1111.5
Auburn111.8110.3110.6110.9

SEC113.7113.2113.6113.5

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia St.98.998.0101.899.6
Appalachian St.96.598.399.198.0
Coastal Carolina94.295.796.595.5
James Madison91.293.196.193.5
Marshall92.493.893.193.1
Old Dominion90.790.890.890.8
Ga. Southern87.987.388.487.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana95.696.098.296.6
Troy91.191.392.491.6
South Alabama87.387.688.587.8
Southern Miss.85.486.185.985.8
Arkansas St.82.684.283.183.3
UL-Monroe81.481.780.581.2
Texas St.79.079.979.779.5

Sun Belt89.690.391.090.3

Rating of Conferences

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.5
2Big Ten112.0
3Big 12110.0
4Atlantic Coast106.5
5Pac-12104.4
6American Athletic98.1
7Independents93.2
8Mountain West91.0
9Sun Belt90.3
10Mid-American89.1
11Conference USA85.5

Playoff Projections

#1: Alabama

#2: Georgia

#3: Ohio St.

#4: Clemson

September 1, 2022

PiRate Picks–September 1-5, 2022

You know what they say about a broken clock being accurate twice a day? The PiRate Ratings happened to hit the right time on our broken clock in week one. We began the season with three totals’ plays in Week 0, and by luck, all three won. So, we start the season 3-0 against the spread, but are our picks a broken clock that happened to get lucky and be broken on the right time, or did we legitimately begin the season on a winning note?

In most years, our picks begin seasons on a somewhat mediocre beginning and then hit a hot spot in October and early November. What are we to make of a 3-0 start, where if we had begun with an imaginary bank account of $1,000 and wagered $100 on each of the three picks, we would have $1,300 in our account today? Maybe, if we were smart enough, we’d cash in our winning 30% profit and go away for the season. Not many people can make a 30% profit on an investment in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub. In actuality a 30% profit on $0 is still $0. We could lose every pick we make the rest of the season, and we will have the same amount of real money we would have if we won every wager the rest of the year, because out real investment in this is $0. We never wager real money on these picks, and please don’t do so either.

Some of you do wager for real. We hope this site is merely an addendum to your process.

We have chosen three more selections in Week 1 of the College Football Season, and the three selections involve three different types of wagers. We are going with one side, one total, and one Money Line Parlay with a potential payoff of 141.77%.

Selection #1: Florida + 2 1/2 vs. Utah

Utah probably has three key games this year, where if the Utes go 3-0, they might be 13-0 when the College Football Playoff Committee chooses the four big teams. This is one of those three. I’d really like to see this game move to 3 1/2 points, because about 1 of every 11 college football games end with a 3-point spread. However, this one is a game where we believe the wrong team might be favored. Florida was much better than their record last year. The Gators basically mailed it in the second half of the year, and Dan Mullen was shown the door. New coach Billy Napier has restored the faith at the Swamp. While this Gator team has some vulnerable areas, maybe on the offensive side of the ball, the thought here is that the defense will be fired up and play above their heads in Napier’s first game. While the average of the three PiRate Ratings show Utah to be more than a 6-point favorite in this game, the thought here is that the Gators will be a touchdown better than their real worth, and that makes Florida a slight favorite. Getting 2 1/2 points when the underdog looks like a 55% outright winner is enough to work and make this a pick.

Selection #2: Michigan and Colorado St. UNDER 61 1/2

The question here to us is, “Can Michigan score over 50 points in this game?” The reason we ask this is that Colorado State is likely to score 10 points or less trying to break in a new offense with a new coach and without the necessary players to make it work? Michigan figures to win this game by more than 4 touchdowns, more likely 5 touchdowns. A score of 45-10 looks about right here, and that’s 6 1/2 points less than the total for this game.

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay–3 games at +141.77

Pittsburgh over West Virginia

TCU over Colorado

Houston over UTSA

The Backyard Brawl to start the season is an incredible first game rivalry. Pittsburgh lost a lot of talent off last year’s team, but the Panthers had a good bit of depth. Meanwhile, West Virginia is slowly building up their talent level, but the Mountaineers have a long way to go. In fact, this could be the year where the game with Kansas determines which team finishes last in the Big 12. Pittsburgh looks 10-13 points better to start the season.

TCU starts a new era in Fort Worth for the first time since 2000. Sonny Dykes tries to give the Horned Frogs a little more offense and brings more of a passing game, air-raid style. After surprising some people in the 2020 Covid year and guiding the Buffs to four consecutive wins to start his tenure in Boulder, Colorado has since gone 4-10. This game looks like a 10-14 point win for TCU.

Houston figures to contend along with Central Florida as Cincinnati’s top competitors in the American Athletic Conference. While UTSA is a top of the food chain team in CUSA, they are not ready to stake a claim to second best team in the Lonestar State after Texas A&M. Even playing in San Antonio, the Cougars are at least a touchdown better than the Roadrunners.

Season to Date

Beginning Bankroll (not real): $1,000

Imaginary Investment Last Week: $300

Outcome 3-0

Imaginary return $600

New Bank Account: $1,300

August 28, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sept. 1-5, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:07 am

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
TennesseeBall St.33.532.033.5
PittsburghWest Virginia13.712.613.3
PurduePenn St.4.74.14.0
MissouriLouisiana Tech26.725.127.2
MinnesotaNew Mexico St.42.039.043.1
Oklahoma St.Central Michigan28.224.024.4
IndianaIllinois0.3-0.8-0.7
Old DominionVirginia Tech-9.0-9.4-6.4
Michigan St.Western Michigan29.826.926.2
DukeTemple5.85.85.0
ColoradoTCU-7.3-7.6-6.6
Ole MissTroy25.723.522.8
FloridaUtah-7.0-3.5-8.6
South FloridaBYU-12.9-12.5-14.0
SyracuseLouisville-2.9-3.3-3.5
Ohio St.Notre Dame14.214.115.2
MarylandBuffalo30.127.428.0
MichiganColorado St.38.235.037.4
Appalachian St.North Carolina-10.0-8.4-6.7
Boston CollegeRutgers2.25.15.0
James MadisonMiddle Tennessee4.04.77.7
Coastal CarolinaArmy-2.8-2.1-1.2
KentuckyMiami (O)23.521.221.9
South CarolinaGeorgia St.13.113.39.3
North TexasSMU-10.5-10.4-9.3
OhioFlorida Atlantic-0.80.41.4
East CarolinaNorth Carolina St.-16.3-15.7-15.6
WyomingTulsa-10.1-6.3-8.8
USCRice27.128.529.0
UCLABowling Green23.825.026.3
Oregon St.Boise St.4.14.63.8
WashingtonKent St.19.817.820.8
San Diego St.Arizona6.46.46.9
NevadaTexas St.9.210.58.1
Georgia (Atlanta)Oregon21.419.823.8
Southern Miss.Liberty-7.8-9.3-10.3
AlabamaUtah St.37.235.538.0
OklahomaUTEP37.236.637.4
Mississippi St.Memphis20.618.019.0
TexasUL-Monroe32.030.331.0
ArkansasCincinnati7.56.56.2
UTSAHouston-5.9-7.4-7.9
TulaneMassachusetts25.924.327.8
HawaiiWestern Kentucky-18.5-16.5-20.2
LSU (New Orleans)Florida St.3.43.33.5
Georgia TechClemson-21.7-21.5-24.4

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
AkronSt. Francis (PA)8.3
Central FloridaS. Carolina St.29.5
Florida Int’l.Bryant8.8
ToledoLong Island39.0
Wake ForestVMI31.7
Northern IllinoisEastern Illinois28.0
UABAlabama A&M28.8
Arizona St.Northern Arizona26.1
Fresno St.Cal Poly SLO31.3
San Jose St.Portland St.12.7
Eastern MichiganEastern Kentucky13.2
CharlotteWilliam & Mary3.8
KansasTennessee Tech25.1
Air ForceNorthern Iowa15.3
New MexicoMaine4.6
Texas A&MSam Houston27.7
ConnecticutCentral Connecticut13.0
IowaSouth Dakota St.16.7
NavyDelaware18.1
VirginiaRichmond22.1
Iowa St.SE Missouri St.33.2
NebraskaNorth Dakota21.1
Miami (Fla.)Bethune-Cookman38.6
MarshallNorfolk St.28.1
CaliforniaUC Davis18.6
South AlabamaNicholls St.9.7
Georgia SouthernMorgan St.28.6
AuburnMercer28.2
VanderbiltElon17.2
Kansas St.South Dakota23.2
WisconsinIllinois St.31.3
LouisianaSE Louisiana18.1
BaylorAlbany38.5
Arkansas St.Grambling21.8
StanfordColgate30.3
Texas TechMurray St.30.0
Washington St.Idaho25.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia130.5
2Alabama129.1
3Ohio St.128.3
4Michigan123.0
5Clemson120.0
6Oklahoma119.1
7NC State118.1
8Michigan St.117.7
9Wisconsin117.6
10Oklahoma St.117.5
11Notre Dame116.8
12Utah116.6
13Purdue115.9
14Arkansas115.3
15Tennessee115.1
16Pittsburgh115.0
17Iowa114.7
18Miami (Fla.)114.7
19Penn St.114.6
20Texas A&M114.3
21Mississippi St.113.9
22Minnesota113.6
23Baylor113.5
24Kentucky112.7
25L S U112.5
26Ole Miss112.2
27Florida St.111.6
28BYU111.5
29Cincinnati111.5
30Oregon111.3
31Auburn111.2
32Louisville111.0
33Kansas St.110.3
34Texas110.2
35Maryland110.0
36U C L A109.1
37South Carolina109.1
38Iowa St.108.7
39North Carolina108.2
40T C U107.8
41Nebraska107.6
42Oregon St.107.2
43Texas Tech106.7
44Florida106.7
45Boise St.106.0
46U S C105.9
47Houston105.5
48Wake Forest105.4
49Washington104.9
50Syracuse104.8
51Arizona St.104.5
52UCF104.4
53Illinois103.8
54Missouri103.7
55Virginia103.6
56Fresno St.103.5
57West Virginia103.3
58Stanford102.2
59SMU102.0
60Washington St.101.5
61Air Force101.4
62Northwestern101.2
63Boston College101.2
64Indiana100.9
65Georgia St.100.1
66Rutgers100.1
67East Carolina99.8
68Virginia Tech99.7
69Army99.0
70California98.3
71N. Illinois98.2
72Tulane98.2
73U A B98.1
74Appal. St.97.8
75San Diego St.97.7
76Colorado97.6
77Kansas97.3
78Memphis97.2
79Liberty97.0
80Louisiana96.9
81W. Kentucky96.7
82U T S A96.5
83Tulsa95.5
84Vanderbilt95.4
85USF95.4
86Utah St.95.2
87Georgia Tech95.0
88Central Mich.95.0
89Toledo94.5
90Arizona94.1
91Coastal Car.94.0
92Miami (Ohio)93.5
93Western Mich.93.1
94Navy92.2
95Marshall92.1
96Troy91.2
97North Texas90.4
98J. Madison89.5
99Old Dominion89.4
100Colorado St.89.2
101Florida Atlantic88.6
102Eastern Mich.88.5
103Kent St.88.4
104U N L V88.1
105Nevada87.8
106San Jose St.87.4
107Bowling Green87.1
108Ga. Southern86.6
109Middle Tennessee86.5
110Ohio85.9
111South Alabama85.8
112Southern Miss.85.3
113Ball St.85.1
114U T E P85.1
115Buffalo84.5
116Wyoming84.1
117Duke84.1
118UL-Monroe82.1
119Temple81.1
120Texas St.81.0
121Arkansas St.80.8
122Rice80.7
123Charlotte80.7
124Louisiana Tech80.4
125New Mexico80.2
126Akron78.5
127Connecticut78.2
128New Mexico St.75.3
129Hawaii74.8
130Massachusetts74.7
131Florida Int’l.67.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati111.3110.4112.9111.5
Houston105.1104.8106.6105.5
UCF103.9104.6104.7104.4
SMU102.3101.4102.4102.0
East Carolina99.699.2100.599.8
Tulane98.797.898.098.2
Memphis97.197.697.097.2
Tulsa95.994.995.895.5
USF96.394.895.295.4
Navy93.092.291.492.2
Temple81.083.578.781.1

AAC98.698.398.598.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson119.8119.6120.6120.0
NC State118.4117.4118.6118.1
Florida St.112.1111.4111.3111.6
Louisville111.8110.6110.8111.0
Wake Forest105.9105.2105.2105.4
Syracuse105.9104.3104.2104.8
Boston College100.6102.6100.3101.2

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh116.0114.7114.3115.0
Miami (Fla.)115.2113.8115.0114.7
North Carolina108.3108.5107.8108.2
Virginia104.1104.3102.4103.6
Virginia Tech100.4100.897.999.7
Georgia Tech95.795.693.795.0
Duke84.386.881.284.1

ACC107.0106.8105.9106.6

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma119.4118.2119.8119.1
Oklahoma St.118.3116.4117.7117.5
Baylor114.2112.9113.4113.5
Kansas St.111.2109.8110.0110.3
Texas111.2110.0109.5110.2
Iowa St.108.7108.6108.9108.7
T C U108.9107.3107.3107.8
Texas Tech107.1105.6107.5106.7
West Virginia103.8103.6102.5103.3
Kansas99.296.995.897.3

Big 12110.2108.9109.2109.5

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.128.7126.7129.6128.3
Michigan123.7121.9123.5123.0
Michigan St.119.0117.4116.8117.7
Penn St.115.1114.6114.1114.6
Maryland110.3110.1109.8110.0
Indiana102.1101.599.1100.9
Rutgers101.4100.598.3100.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin118.1117.4117.1117.6
Purdue116.8115.7115.0115.9
Iowa115.9114.4113.9114.7
Minnesota113.7113.1114.1113.6
Nebraska108.1108.1106.8107.6
Illinois104.3104.8102.3103.8
Northwestern101.4102.599.6101.2

Big Ten112.8112.0111.4112.1

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B97.497.699.298.1
W. Kentucky96.095.698.696.7
U T S A97.295.496.796.5
North Texas90.289.591.690.4
Florida Atlantic88.089.688.188.6
Middle Tennessee85.786.886.986.5
U T E P85.284.685.385.1
Rice81.380.780.280.7
Charlotte80.481.780.080.7
Louisiana Tech80.382.078.880.4
Florida Int’l.67.170.265.467.6

CUSA86.386.786.586.5

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame117.5115.5117.4116.8
BYU112.2110.2112.2111.5
Army98.699.399.299.0
Liberty95.497.598.097.0
Connecticut78.680.176.078.2
New Mexico St.74.877.174.075.3
Massachusetts75.376.072.774.7

Independents93.293.792.893.2

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)91.694.694.493.5
Kent St.87.490.287.788.4
Bowling Green87.886.586.987.1
Ohio84.387.086.585.9
Buffalo83.185.884.884.5
Akron78.379.377.978.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
N. Illinois97.998.398.498.2
Central Mich.93.195.496.495.0
Toledo93.594.795.494.5
Western Mich.92.293.593.693.1
Eastern Mich.88.489.088.188.5
Ball St.84.786.084.885.1

MAC88.590.089.689.4

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.106.1105.0107.0106.0
Air Force101.0100.9102.4101.4
Utah St.94.895.295.695.2
Colorado St.88.689.989.189.2
Wyoming82.885.684.084.1
New Mexico80.481.179.180.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.103.3102.6104.6103.5
San Diego St.97.597.597.997.7
U N L V89.086.588.688.1
Nevada87.289.387.087.8
San Jose St.86.987.388.087.4
Hawaii74.175.674.974.8

MWC91.091.491.591.3

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.5115.0118.4116.6
Oregon111.7111.4110.9111.3
U C L A108.6108.5110.2109.1
Oregon St.107.2106.6107.8107.2
U S C105.4106.2106.2105.9
Washington104.2105.0105.5104.9
Arizona St.104.1104.1105.4104.5
Stanford103.8101.0101.8102.2
Washington St.101.0101.6101.8101.5
California97.798.199.198.3
Colorado98.596.797.797.6
Arizona94.194.194.094.1

Pac-12104.4104.0104.9104.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia130.6128.7132.2130.5
Tennessee115.2114.9115.3115.1
Kentucky112.1112.8113.3112.7
South Carolina109.5108.8108.9109.1
Florida105.9108.0106.3106.7
Missouri104.0104.1103.0103.7
Vanderbilt95.696.893.895.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.0127.7130.6129.1
Arkansas115.9113.9116.1115.3
Texas A&M113.4114.8114.8114.3
Mississippi St.115.2113.1113.5113.9
L S U113.0112.2112.2112.5
Ole Miss113.4111.4111.8112.2
Auburn112.1110.6110.9111.2

SEC113.2112.7113.1113.0

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia St.99.398.5102.6100.1
Appalachian St.96.298.199.097.8
Coastal Carolina92.894.295.094.0
Marshall91.492.892.192.1
James Madison87.289.192.189.5
Old Dominion89.489.489.589.4
Ga. Southern86.686.087.186.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana95.996.398.596.9
Troy90.790.992.091.2
South Alabama85.385.686.585.8
Southern Miss.85.185.685.285.3
UL-Monroe82.282.781.582.1
Texas St.80.481.381.481.0
Arkansas St.80.181.780.680.8

Sun Belt88.889.490.289.5

Conference Rankings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.0
2Big Ten112.1
3Big 12109.5
4Atlantic Coast106.6
5Pac-12104.4
6American Athletic98.4
7Independents93.2
8Mountain West91.3
9Sun Belt89.5
10Mid-American89.4
11Conference USA86.5

The Best TV Games This Week

Thursday, September 1
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
7:00 PMESPNPittsburghWest Virginia
8:00 PMFoxPurduePenn St.

Friday, September 2
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
7:00 PMESPNMichigan St.Western Michigan
8:00 PMFS1IndianaIllinois
10:00 PMESPNColoradoTCU

Saturday, September 3
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMABCMichiganColorado St.
12:00 PMESPNEast CarolinaNorth Carolina St.
12:00 PMESPNUAppalachian St.North Carolina
12:00 PMFS1IowaSouth Dakota St.
3:30 PMCBSSan Diego St.Arizona
3:30 PMESPNArkansasCincinnati
3:30 PMABCGeorgia (Atl.)Oregon
3:30 PMFoxOklahomaUTEP
7:00 PMESPNFloridaUtah
7:30 PMESPNUMississippi St.Memphis
7:30 PMABCOhio St.Notre Dame
7:30 PMSECNAlabamaUtah St.
10:30 PMESPNOregon St.Boise St.
10:30 PMFS1WashingtonKent St.

Sunday, September 4
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
7:30 PMABCLSU (New Orleans)Florida St.

Monday, September 5
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
8:00 PMESPNGeorgia TechClemson

August 18, 2022

Big Ten Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am

Will the Big Ten Conference become the Big Billion? Rumors from multiple sources indicate that this league is on the precipice of signing a TV and media rights package that will be north of a billion dollars. This deal does not include Notre Dame. Should the Irish end up in this league, the Big Ten will dwarf even the SEC in money paid out per school.

USC and UCLA are set to join the league in two years. Whether other teams join as well is anybody’s guess.

Both divisions this year figure to have competitive races. Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to win the East and the league overall, but there are multiple teams capable of upsetting the Buckeyes. Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are strong once again, and it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that at least one of these contenders upsets the Buckeyes.

Maryland has an easy out of conference schedule and has a good chance to gain bowl eligibility. Rutgers and Indiana will bring up the rear.

In the West, five different teams could contend for the division title. Purdue has the benefit of avoiding Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State from the East. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are all about equal in talent this year, while Nebraska could finally return to the plus side of .500. Illinois and Northwestern are one or more excellent recruiting classes away from being contenders.

Big Ten Preseason PiRate Ratings

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.128.6126.6129.5128.2
Michigan123.6121.8123.4122.9
Michigan St.118.9117.3116.7117.6
Penn St.115.0114.5114.0114.5
Maryland110.2110.0109.7109.9
Indiana102.0101.499.0100.8
Rutgers101.3100.498.2100.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin118.0117.3117.0117.5
Iowa117.4115.9115.4116.2
Purdue116.7115.6114.9115.8
Minnesota113.6113.0114.0113.5
Nebraska110.1110.1109.0109.7
Illinois103.0103.6101.1102.5
Northwestern99.7100.897.799.4

Big Ten112.7112.0111.4112.0

Preseason Official Big Ten Media Poll

Votes
#East1st PlaceOverall
1Ohio St.36252
2Michigan0203
3Penn St.0169
4Michigan St.0162
5Maryland0104
6Rutgers060
7Indiana058

#West1st PlaceOverall
1Wisconsin31246
2Iowa3198
3Minnesota2162
4Purdue0153
5Nebraska0123
6Illinois065
7Northwestern061

ChampionshipOverall
Ohio St.36

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

EastConf.Overall
Ohio St.9-013-0
Michigan8-111-1
Penn St.6-38-4
Michigan St.6-39-3
Maryland3-66-6
Rutgers1-83-9
Indiana1-83-9

WestConf.Overall
Purdue7-210-3
Wisconsin6-39-3
Minnesota6-39-3
Iowa5-48-4
Nebraska4-56-6
Northwestern1-84-8
Illinois0-93-9

July 18, 2022

PiRate College Football Game Debuts

After months of planning and design, the makers of the PiRate Ratings have created a college football game that can be played by one person in solitaire mode or by two people in head-to-head mode. All teams have been designed to perform as they did in real life using the PiRate Ratings’ Strength of Schedule formula to adjust their statistics to account for quality of opposition.

If you played the Sports Illustrated and Avalon Hill games of Bowl Bound and Pay Dirt, you will find this game a little more strategically involved while a little easier to play, as it used standard dice to see the results.

For the low price of $8, we will send you a zip file with all the charts, rules, and a scoreboard and numbers that you can print out to keep track of the action. We also send you a blank statistics sheet so you can record the action for posterity.

All you need are the dice, or to use one of many different free online dice rollers available online.

Go to https://pirate-football.square.site/ to purchase.

Our debut college game is the 1960-1979 Best of the Big Ten Conference. Here are the teams included in this set.

1963 Illinois–The greatest linebacker of all time, Dick Butkus, played center as well and made All-American with a powerful team

1967 Indiana–One of the most exciting teams of all time, the “Cardiac Kids” kept pulling out late victories week after week until they won a trip to the Rose Bowl

1960 Iowa–Some computer formulas say the Hawkeyes were the best team in the nation, as they beat 7 ranked teams and finished 8-1

1973 Michigan–Bo Schembechler’s Wolverines went 10-0-1 but had to stay home for the Holidays thanks to the archaic Big Ten rules of the time

1966 Michigan St.–Duffy Daugherty stockpiled some of the best talent ever to appear on a Big Ten campus at the same time. Bubba Smith anchored a stellar defense, while Gene Washington stretched defenses with his quickness and deceptive moves

1960 Minnesota–Coach Murray Warmath played for General Robert Neyland at Tennessee and continued to follow the General’s philosophy of playing conservative football and waiting for the other team to make the mistakes. He had a great squad in 1960, featuring the multi-tooled Sandy Stephens, who was the starting quarterback, a starting defensive back, the team’s punter, and the top punt returner. Future All-Pro Bobby Bell led the defensive charge and also opened up running lanes as an offensive lineman

1962 Northwestern–Before he became a multiple national championship winning coach at Notre Dame, Ara Parseghian took the Wildcat to Number 1 in the polls for a couple weeks in 1962

1973 Ohio State–Woody Hayes had no trouble stockpiling talent, and he had it on both sides of the ball in 1973, as the Buckeyes went 10-0-1 with a 21-point win in the Rose Bowl

1967 Purdue–The Boilermakers split the conference championship, as Leroy Keyes may have deserved the Heisman Trophy with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, run the sweep and off-tackle as competently as anybody in the game, and to pull up and throw a halfback option pass like a pro. Having future pro quarterback Mike Phipps made the offense click

1962 Wisconsin-The Badgers came within one close incomplete pass of coming back from a 42-14 deficit to win the Rose Bowl

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