PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	September 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Houston	7.1	6.3	4.7

 

Friday	September 20
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
La. Tech	Florida Int’l.	3.9	3.8	3.6
USC	Utah	-6.3	-3.8	-6.1
Boise St.	Air Force	10.8	9.0	10.4

 

Saturday	September 21
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida	Tennessee	16.0	13.6	16.9
Indiana	Connecticut	35.9	29.9	35.8
Rutgers	Boston College	-5.2	-5.0	-6.0
Syracuse	Western Mich.	6.2	6.6	5.8
Alabama	Southern Miss.	43.5	42.0	44.3
Iowa St.	UL-Monroe	22.3	21.8	21.9
Northwestern	Michigan St.	-3.7	-4.1	-5.0
Ole Miss	California	-2.4	-3.0	-4.6
Vanderbilt	LSU	-21.1	-19.5	-21.0
Wisconsin	Michigan	0.5	2.3	0.1
Massachusetts	Coastal Car.	-13.5	-12.2	-13.4
Ohio	Louisiana	3.7	2.4	5.6
Akron	Troy	-14.3	-14.3	-13.6
Buffalo	Temple	-15.1	-13.4	-15.5
Florida St.	Louisville	9.4	10.1	9.9
North Carolina	Appy St.	-0.4	2.1	1.6
Ohio St.	Miami (O)	40.6	40.8	40.9
Pittsburgh	Central Fla.	-3.1	-2.6	-4.9
TCU	SMU	4.3	8.2	3.9
Texas A&M	Auburn	5.0	5.3	4.6
Tulsa	Wyoming	0.0	-1.8	0.1
UAB	S. Alabama	12.0	10.4	13.6
BYU	Washington	-8.3	-7.7	-9.2
Kent St.	Bowling Green	11.4	11.5	11.7
Miami (Fla.)	Central Mich.	35.7	33.8	36.6
Mississippi St.	Kentucky	10.0	6.9	10.7
Missouri	South Carolina	5.7	4.7	6.0
Kansas	West Virginia	-5.7	-4.3	-5.5
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	6.4	7.5	6.1
N. Carolina St.	Ball St.	18.8	19.3	19.7
Virginia	Old Dominion	32.6	32.7	32.5
Rice	Baylor	-31.7	-30.5	-32.3
Stanford	Oregon	-8.2	-9.2	-9.5
Texas St.	Georgia St.	-0.5	-0.9	0.4
Clemson	Charlotte	48.5	44.4	48.8
Arkansas	San Jose St.	18.6	17.4	18.9
North Texas	UTSA	18.1	15.0	19.3
Texas	Oklahoma St.	5.1	4.5	5.3
Georgia	Notre Dame	9.3	9.6	9.7
Illinois	Nebraska	-6.4	-6.9	-7.0
UTEP	Nevada	-21.9	-18.1	-21.3
Arizona St.	Colorado	10.6	9.8	11.1
Colorado St.	Toledo	-9.1	-5.3	-10.4
San Diego St.	Utah St.	-5.4	-2.2	-6.9
Washington St.	UCLA	16.8	16.4	18.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor		PiRate
Army	Morgan St.		41
Wake Forest	Elon		30
Eastern Michigan	Central Conn.		31
Florida Atlantic	Wagner		35
Liberty	Hampton		29
East Carolina	William & Mary		16
Arkansas St.	Southern Illinois		22
Fresno St.	Sacramento St.		30
Hawaii	Central Arkansas		20

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.9	132.3	137.0	135.0
2	Clemson	134.5	131.2	135.4	133.7
3	Ohio St.	128.7	127.1	129.2	128.3
4	Georgia	127.5	125.8	128.1	127.1
5	L S U	126.0	123.3	124.8	124.7
6	Oklahoma	122.3	121.4	122.2	122.0
7	Notre Dame	121.2	119.2	121.4	120.6
8	Michigan	119.6	117.5	119.9	119.0
9	Florida	119.9	117.1	119.1	118.7
10	Texas A&M	119.4	117.8	118.3	118.5
11	Wisconsin	117.1	116.8	117.0	117.0
12	Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6
13	Auburn	117.4	115.5	116.8	116.6
14	Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0
15	Michigan St.	116.1	115.6	116.3	116.0
16	Penn St.	116.4	115.3	116.0	115.9
17	Iowa	115.7	113.7	115.8	115.0
18	Missouri	114.9	112.3	115.0	114.1
19	Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8
20	Mississippi St.	115.0	110.7	114.4	113.4
21	Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6
22	Central Florida	112.1	111.3	113.5	112.3
23	Texas	112.3	112.3	112.2	112.3
24	Baylor	111.9	112.1	111.6	111.9
25	Kansas St.	111.8	111.5	111.8	111.7
26	South Carolina	112.2	110.6	112.0	111.6
27	Miami (Fla.)	110.4	109.5	111.5	110.5
28	Oklahoma St.	110.2	110.9	109.9	110.3
29	Iowa St.	110.2	110.4	109.9	110.2
30	Northwestern	109.9	109.0	108.8	109.2
31	Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1
32	Minnesota	109.4	108.7	108.0	108.7
33	Maryland	109.1	108.5	108.3	108.6
34	California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0
35	U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6
36	Kentucky	108.0	106.8	106.7	107.2
37	Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0
38	Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0
39	T C U	105.2	108.8	105.7	106.6
40	Utah St.	106.3	105.1	107.7	106.3
41	Indiana	107.3	105.4	106.0	106.2
42	Tennessee	106.8	106.5	105.2	106.2
43	Boise St.	106.1	105.4	106.4	106.0
44	Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	105.6	105.7
45	Purdue	105.5	105.5	105.0	105.3
46	Texas Tech	105.6	105.8	104.6	105.3
47	Memphis	105.0	104.8	106.1	105.3
48	Duke	105.2	104.7	105.1	105.0
49	Syracuse	105.2	104.6	105.0	104.9
50	Cincinnati	105.1	103.5	105.2	104.6
51	Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6
52	West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3
53	Appalachian St.	105.2	103.3	104.4	104.3
54	Wake Forest	103.9	103.4	104.5	103.9
55	Virginia Tech	103.4	103.6	103.7	103.6
56	North Carolina	102.8	103.4	104.0	103.4
57	Temple	103.3	102.3	104.5	103.4
58	Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7
59	Vanderbilt	103.4	102.2	102.3	102.6
60	North Carolina St.	102.4	102.3	102.9	102.5
61	Florida St.	102.4	102.7	102.2	102.5
62	BYU	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4
63	SMU	102.0	101.5	102.8	102.1
64	Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	102.2	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.3	101.5	101.3	101.7
66	Army	101.5	101.6	101.1	101.4
67	Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.9	100.6
68	Tulane	100.2	100.6	100.6	100.5
69	Fresno St.	100.0	100.6	100.7	100.4
70	Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5
71	Air Force	98.2	99.4	99.1	98.9
72	San Diego St.	97.9	99.8	97.8	98.5
73	Arkansas	98.3	99.2	97.7	98.4
74	U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4
75	Houston	96.1	97.3	98.9	97.4
76	Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.2	97.2
77	Ohio	96.6	95.6	97.9	96.7
78	Wyoming	95.4	97.6	96.0	96.3
79	Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2
80	Georgia Southern	96.4	95.7	95.8	96.0
81	Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0
82	Louisiana	95.9	96.2	95.3	95.8
83	Louisville	96.1	95.7	95.3	95.7
84	Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5
85	Georgia Tech	95.7	93.8	96.2	95.2
86	Southern Miss.	95.4	93.2	95.7	94.8
87	Troy	94.5	94.7	93.4	94.2
88	Marshall	93.4	92.9	94.6	93.6
89	Northern Illinois	93.7	92.6	93.8	93.4
90	North Texas	92.8	92.1	93.7	92.9
91	Tulsa	92.4	92.9	93.1	92.8
92	Toledo	92.1	92.3	93.2	92.5
93	Rutgers	92.3	92.3	91.9	92.2
94	Nevada	91.3	93.0	91.1	91.8
95	South Florida	91.0	92.0	91.3	91.4
96	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2
97	Louisiana-Monroe	90.8	91.6	91.0	91.1
98	Eastern Michigan	90.7	91.1	91.4	91.1
99	Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.7	91.0	90.9
100	Navy	89.8	92.8	89.6	90.8
101	Florida Atlantic	90.4	89.7	91.1	90.4
102	Middle Tennessee	90.4	89.5	90.5	90.1
103	Florida Int’l.	89.6	89.3	89.9	89.6
104	Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.3	90.4	89.6
105	Liberty	88.5	89.7	88.9	89.0
106	Charlotte	88.1	88.8	88.6	88.5
107	Western Kentucky	86.3	87.0	87.6	86.9
108	U A B	85.7	87.4	86.3	86.5
109	Ball St.	86.6	86.0	86.1	86.2
110	Buffalo	85.8	86.4	86.5	86.2
111	Georgia St.	85.9	87.2	84.9	86.0
112	U N L V	84.9	87.0	84.9	85.6
113	Kent St.	85.3	85.2	85.6	85.4
114	Coastal Carolina	84.1	85.3	83.2	84.2
115	Texas St.	82.9	83.8	82.8	83.2
116	San Jose St.	82.8	84.8	81.9	83.2
117	New Mexico	82.2	85.5	81.4	83.1
118	East Carolina	82.2	84.3	81.7	82.7
119	Colorado St.	79.9	84.0	79.8	81.2
120	Rice	78.7	80.1	77.8	78.9
121	Central Michigan	77.8	78.7	77.9	78.1
122	Old Dominion	77.8	78.2	78.0	78.0
123	Akron	77.7	78.0	77.3	77.6
124	Texas-San Antonio	76.7	79.2	76.4	77.4
125	New Mexico St.	76.8	79.0	76.4	77.4
126	South Alabama	75.2	78.5	74.2	76.0
127	Bowling Green	75.9	75.7	75.9	75.9
128	Connecticut	74.4	78.5	73.2	75.4
129	U T E P	66.9	72.4	67.3	68.8
130	Massachusetts	68.1	70.6	67.3	68.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	112.1	111.3	113.5	112.3	0-0	3-0
Cincinnati	105.1	103.5	105.2	104.6	0-0	2-1
Temple	103.3	102.3	104.5	103.4	0-0	2-0
South Florida	91.0	92.0	91.3	91.4	0-0	1-2
East Carolina	82.2	84.3	81.7	82.7	0-1	1-2
Connecticut	74.4	78.5	73.2	75.4	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.0	104.8	106.1	105.3	0-0	3-0
SMU	102.0	101.5	102.8	102.1	0-0	3-0
Tulane	100.2	100.6	100.6	100.5	0-0	2-1
Houston	96.1	97.3	98.9	97.4	0-0	1-2
Tulsa	92.4	92.9	93.1	92.8	0-0	1-2
Navy	89.8	92.8	89.6	90.8	1-0	2-0
AAC Averages	96.1	96.8	96.7	96.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.5	131.2	135.4	133.7	2-0	3-0
Syracuse	105.2	104.6	105.0	104.9	0-1	1-2
Wake Forest	103.9	103.4	104.5	103.9	0-0	3-0
North Carolina St.	102.4	102.3	102.9	102.5	0-0	2-1
Florida St.	102.4	102.7	102.2	102.5	0-1	1-2
Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.9	100.6	1-0	2-1
Louisville	96.1	95.7	95.3	95.7	0-0	2-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	110.4	109.5	111.5	110.5	0-1	1-2
Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1	2-0	3-0
Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	105.6	105.7	0-1	1-2
Duke	105.2	104.7	105.1	105.0	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	103.4	103.6	103.7	103.6	0-1	2-1
North Carolina	102.8	103.4	104.0	103.4	1-0	2-1
Georgia Tech	95.7	93.8	96.2	95.2	0-1	1-2
ACC Averages	105.5	105.0	105.8	105.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.3	121.4	122.2	122.0	0-0	3-0
Texas	112.3	112.3	112.2	112.3	0-0	2-1
Baylor	111.9	112.1	111.6	111.9	0-0	2-0
Kansas St.	111.8	111.5	111.8	111.7	0-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	110.2	110.9	109.9	110.3	0-0	3-0
Iowa St.	110.2	110.4	109.9	110.2	0-0	1-1
T C U	105.2	108.8	105.7	106.6	0-0	2-0
Texas Tech	105.6	105.8	104.6	105.3	0-0	2-1
West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3	0-0	2-1
Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2	0-0	2-1
Big 12 Averages	109.0	109.4	108.8	109.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	127.1	129.2	128.3	1-0	3-0
Michigan	119.6	117.5	119.9	119.0	0-0	2-0
Michigan St.	116.1	115.6	116.3	116.0	0-0	2-1
Penn St.	116.4	115.3	116.0	115.9	0-0	3-0
Maryland	109.1	108.5	108.3	108.6	0-0	2-1
Indiana	107.3	105.4	106.0	106.2	0-1	2-1
Rutgers	92.3	92.3	91.9	92.2	0-1	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.1	116.8	117.0	117.0	0-0	2-0
Iowa	115.7	113.7	115.8	115.0	1-0	3-0
Northwestern	109.9	109.0	108.8	109.2	0-0	1-1
Minnesota	109.4	108.7	108.0	108.7	0-0	3-0
Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0	0-0	2-1
Purdue	105.5	105.5	105.0	105.3	0-0	1-2
Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.2	97.2	0-0	2-1
Big Ten Averages	110.8	110.1	110.3	110.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.4	92.9	94.6	93.6	0-0	2-1
Florida Atlantic	90.4	89.7	91.1	90.4	0-0	1-2
Middle Tennessee	90.4	89.5	90.5	90.1	0-0	1-2
Florida Int’l.	89.6	89.3	89.9	89.6	0-1	1-2
Charlotte	88.1	88.8	88.6	88.5	0-0	2-1
Western Kentucky	86.3	87.0	87.6	86.9	1-0	1-2
Old Dominion	77.8	78.2	78.0	78.0	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	95.4	93.2	95.7	94.8	0-0	2-1
North Texas	92.8	92.1	93.7	92.9	0-0	1-2
Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.7	91.0	90.9	0-0	2-1
U A B	85.7	87.4	86.3	86.5	0-0	2-0
Rice	78.7	80.1	77.8	78.9	0-0	0-3
Texas-San Antonio	76.7	79.2	76.4	77.4	0-0	1-2
U T E P	66.9	72.4	67.3	68.8	0-0	1-1
CUSA Averages	85.9	86.5	86.3	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.2	119.2	121.4	120.6	x	2-0
BYU	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4	x	2-1
Army	101.5	101.6	101.1	101.4	x	2-1
Liberty	88.5	89.7	88.9	89.0	x	1-2
New Mexico St.	76.8	79.0	76.4	77.4	x	0-3
Massachusetts	68.1	70.6	67.3	68.7	x	0-3
Indep. Averages	93.1	93.7	92.9	93.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.6	95.6	97.9	96.7	0-0	1-2
Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.3	90.4	89.6	0-0	1-2
Buffalo	85.8	86.4	86.5	86.2	0-0	1-2
Kent St.	85.3	85.2	85.6	85.4	0-0	1-2
Akron	77.7	78.0	77.3	77.6	0-1	0-3
Bowling Green	75.9	75.7	75.9	75.9	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	102.2	101.7	0-0	2-1
Northern Illinois	93.7	92.6	93.8	93.4	0-0	1-2
Toledo	92.1	92.3	93.2	92.5	0-0	1-1
Eastern Michigan	90.7	91.1	91.4	91.1	0-0	2-1
Ball St.	86.6	86.0	86.1	86.2	0-0	1-2
Central Michigan	77.8	78.7	77.9	78.1	1-0	2-1
MAC Averages	87.9	87.6	88.2	87.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	106.3	105.1	107.7	106.3	0-0	1-1
Boise St.	106.1	105.4	106.4	106.0	0-0	3-0
Air Force	98.2	99.4	99.1	98.9	0-0	2-0
Wyoming	95.4	97.6	96.0	96.3	0-0	3-0
New Mexico	82.2	85.5	81.4	83.1	0-0	1-1
Colorado St.	79.9	84.0	79.8	81.2	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	100.0	100.6	100.7	100.4	0-0	0-2
San Diego St.	97.9	99.8	97.8	98.5	0-0	3-0
Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0	0-0	2-1
Nevada	91.3	93.0	91.1	91.8	0-0	2-1
U N L V	84.9	87.0	84.9	85.6	0-0	1-2
San Jose St.	82.8	84.8	81.9	83.2	0-0	1-1
MWC Averages	93.4	95.0	93.5	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6	0-0	2-1
Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8	0-1	2-1
Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6	0-0	3-0
California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0	1-0	3-0
Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6	0-1	1-2
Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5	0-0	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0	0-0	3-0
U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6	1-0	2-1
Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0	0-0	3-0
Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	0-0	2-1
U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4	0-0	0-3
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.5	125.8	128.1	127.1	1-0	3-0
Florida	119.9	117.1	119.1	118.7	1-0	3-0
Missouri	114.9	112.3	115.0	114.1	0-0	2-1
South Carolina	112.2	110.6	112.0	111.6	0-1	1-2
Kentucky	108.0	106.8	106.7	107.2	0-1	2-1
Tennessee	106.8	106.5	105.2	106.2	0-0	1-2
Vanderbilt	103.4	102.2	102.3	102.6	0-1	0-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.9	132.3	137.0	135.0	1-0	3-0
L S U	126.0	123.3	124.8	124.7	0-0	3-0
Texas A&M	119.4	117.8	118.3	118.5	0-0	2-1
Auburn	117.4	115.5	116.8	116.6	0-0	3-0
Mississippi St.	115.0	110.7	114.4	113.4	0-0	2-1
Ole Miss	102.3	101.5	101.3	101.7	1-0	2-1
Arkansas	98.3	99.2	97.7	98.4	0-1	2-1
SEC Averages	114.8	113.0	114.2	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.2	103.3	104.4	104.3	0-0	2-0
Georgia Southern	96.4	95.7	95.8	96.0	0-0	1-2
Troy	94.5	94.7	93.4	94.2	0-0	1-1
Georgia St.	85.9	87.2	84.9	86.0	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	84.1	85.3	83.2	84.2	0-0	2-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	95.9	96.2	95.3	95.8	0-0	2-1
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2	0-0	1-2
Louisiana-Monroe	90.8	91.6	91.0	91.1	0-0	1-1
Texas St.	82.9	83.8	82.8	83.2	0-0	0-3
South Alabama	75.2	78.5	74.2	76.0	0-0	1-2
SBC Averages	90.2	90.8	89.6	90.2

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Once again this week, our fearless bowl projections show a lot of at-large teams needed to fill spots.  This week, the number is eight teams.  The Southeastern Conference is looking like an eight-bid league this year, and the league will most likely have 12 spots to fill.  With Alabama, Georgia, and LSU looking like teams that will play in New Year’s Six Bowls or Playoffs, and with Missouri not eligible for a bowl this year, there will probably be just five other bowl eligible teams in the premiere league in FBS Football.  Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky should become bowl eligible, but Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt don’t look like they have the strength to reach six wins.

The Big Ten might benefit by an extra bid if Indiana and Northwestern can get to 6-6.  Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue look like they could supply a little fodder for the other 11 teams to pick up conference wins and allow 11 to become bowl eligible, when only 10 teams will have guaranteed bowl spots.  It figures that if any Big Ten team remains with at-large bowl bids available, the Big Ten will be at the top of the at-large lists.

The Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt Conferences look like they will have extra bowl eligible teams this year, but at this point of the season, some of these teams may be bowl eligible but not get an invitations.

Here’s our look at the Bowls and Playoffs this week.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Houston	[UAB]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Western Michigan]	Troy
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Toledo
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	North Texas	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Navy	Charlotte
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	SMU
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	[Army]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Northwestern
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	[Hawaii]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Kansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	California
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Louisiana Tech	[Nevada]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Indiana]	Syracuse
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	[Wyoming]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Washington
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Iowa
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Duke]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Auburn	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Alabama	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PiRate College Football Ratings: September 3, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday	September 6
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rice	Wake Forest	-21.7	-19.5	-22.2
Boise St.	Marshall	16.3	16.3	16.0
Saturday	September 7
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Pittsburgh	Ohio	13.7	14.6	11.6
Virginia Tech	Old Dominion	35.6	35.7	36.2
Akron	UAB	-1.6	-3.5	-2.3
Michigan	Army	21.5	19.6	22.1
Purdue	Vanderbilt	6.9	8.1	7.2
Iowa	Rutgers	25.8	23.0	25.7
Maryland	Syracuse	-4.9	-5.0	-6.2
Missouri	West Virginia	9.6	6.9	10.0
Ohio St.	Cincinnati	16.5	16.2	16.6
Kansas St.	Bowling Green	30.1	30.0	29.4
Utah	Northern Illinois	25.1	24.8	25.4
Georgia Tech	South Florida	12.7	10.1	13.5
Colorado	Nebraska	-2.7	-4.9	-2.3
Clemson	Texas A&M	18.2	15.5	20.4
Wisconsin	Central Michigan	39.1	37.5	38.7
Appalachian St.	Charlotte	21.3	18.5	19.9
Mississippi St.	Southern Miss.	23.8	21.5	23.0
Connecticut	Illinois	-23.6	-20.2	-24.6
Baylor	UTSA	35.1	32.2	34.9
Alabama	New Mexico St.	60.8	53.3	61.9
UCLA	San Diego St.	14.5	12.0	14.0
Florida St.	Louisiana-Monroe	19.1	19.2	19.3
Texas St.	Wyoming	-9.9	-11.4	-11.0
SMU	North Texas	8.0	7.9	7.5
Tennessee	BYU	8.5	8.2	6.7
Florida Atlantic	Central Florida	-15.9	-15.7	-16.3
Florida Int’l.	Western Kentucky	8.8	7.9	7.8
Kansas	Coastal Carolina	16.7	16.8	17.5
Louisiana	Liberty	8.7	7.3	7.3
Michigan St.	Western Michigan	17.8	18.8	17.7
Texas	LSU	-11.2	-8.4	-10.6
Auburn	Tulane	21.5	18.5	20.3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	5.4	3.4	5.0
Oregon	Nevada	21.7	20.0	23.0
Penn St.	Buffalo	33.1	31.1	32.0
Kentucky	Eastern Michigan	22.3	20.8	20.4
Texas Tech	UTEP	44.3	38.6	42.9
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	-7.1	-4.4	-6.8
USC	Stanford	-2.4	0.0	-2.1
Washington	California	9.3	8.4	9.2
Fresno St.	Minnesota	-8.4	-7.2	-6.5
Hawaii	Oregon St.	6.7	7.5	7.7

San Jose St.	Tulsa	-4.3	-2.4	-6.2
UNLV	Arkansas St.	-1.5	0.9	-1.0

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home	Visitor		PiRate
Virginia	William & Mary		35.8
Arizona St.	Sacramento St.		33.7
South Carolina	Charleston Sou.		38.6
Memphis	Southern U		36.4
Kent St.	Kennesaw St.		-1.8
North Carolina St.	Western Carolina		41.0
Ball St.	Fordham		25.9
Miami (O)	Tennessee Tech		35.1
Massachusetts	Southern Illinois		4.6
Indiana	Eastern Illinois		32.1
Boston College	Richmond		35.0
Louisiana Tech	Grambling		26.4
Georgia	Murray St.		52.3
Colorado St.	Western Illinois		6.4
Washington St.	Northern Colorado		41.9
East Carolina	Gardner-Webb		24.1
Georgia Southern	Maine		10.2
Duke	North Carolina A&T		26.9
Georgia St.	Furman		7.0
Louisville	Eastern Kentucky		19.9
Oklahoma St.	McNeese St.		36.8
South Alabama	Jackson St.		24.4
Oklahoma	South Dakota		38.3
Middle Tennessee	Tennessee St.		25.9
Florida	UT-Martin		42.6
Utah St.	Stony Brook		27.5
Houston	Prairie View		28.6
Arizona	Northern Arizona		23.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.8	131.5	136.7	134.6
2	Clemson	134.0	130.3	135.0	133.1
3	Georgia	125.9	123.9	126.3	125.4
4	L S U	126.1	123.3	125.0	124.8
5	Ohio St.	121.6	119.8	121.8	121.1
6	Michigan	121.3	119.3	121.8	120.8
7	Notre Dame	120.2	118.4	120.2	119.6
8	Oklahoma	119.9	118.9	119.6	119.5
9	Florida	120.0	117.1	119.0	118.7
10	Texas A&M	118.6	117.1	117.2	117.7
11	Penn St.	117.0	115.9	116.9	116.6
12	Utah	116.8	115.2	117.2	116.4
13	Auburn	117.2	114.8	116.5	116.2
14	Michigan St.	115.9	115.6	116.1	115.9
15	Mississippi St.	116.5	111.8	116.0	114.8
16	Wisconsin	114.4	113.9	114.1	114.1
17	Iowa	115.0	112.5	114.7	114.0
18	Oregon	113.1	113.1	114.2	113.5
19	Washington	113.3	112.5	114.4	113.4
20	Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0
21	Syracuse	112.0	111.8	112.3	112.0
22	Texas	111.9	111.8	111.5	111.7
23	Missouri	112.5	109.6	112.4	111.5
24	South Carolina	111.0	109.6	111.0	110.5
25	Minnesota	111.0	110.4	109.8	110.4
26	Baylor	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2
27	Iowa St.	110.0	110.4	109.9	110.1
28	Northwestern	110.7	109.7	109.7	110.0
29	Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.7	111.2	110.0
30	Oklahoma St.	109.8	110.4	109.3	109.8
31	Central Florida	109.3	108.3	110.4	109.3
32	Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1
33	Stanford	109.3	108.2	109.4	109.0
34	Virginia Tech	107.7	108.0	108.2	108.0
35	Purdue	108.2	108.1	107.6	108.0
36	Texas Tech	108.0	108.1	107.1	107.7
37	Indiana	108.6	106.8	107.4	107.6
38	Kentucky	108.4	107.2	107.2	107.6
39	Kansas St.	107.7	107.5	107.3	107.5
40	California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4
41	Arizona St.	107.3	106.3	107.7	107.1
42	Cincinnati	107.6	106.0	107.7	107.1
43	Tennessee	107.1	106.9	105.5	106.5
44	Boise St.	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.5
45	Nebraska	105.6	107.3	105.2	106.0
46	U C L A	106.0	105.6	105.3	105.7
47	West Virginia	105.9	105.7	105.4	105.6
48	Pittsburgh	105.9	105.6	105.2	105.6
49	Utah St.	105.4	104.2	106.8	105.4
50	Boston College	104.9	104.6	105.6	105.0
51	Florida St.	104.4	104.8	104.4	104.6
52	Appalachian St.	105.5	103.4	104.6	104.5
53	U S C	103.8	105.2	104.3	104.5
54	Memphis	104.0	103.5	105.1	104.2
55	Vanderbilt	104.3	103.0	103.4	103.6
56	North Carolina St.	103.2	103.2	104.0	103.5
57	Maryland	104.0	103.5	102.8	103.4
58	Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.7	103.4
59	Duke	103.5	102.9	103.2	103.2
60	North Carolina	102.0	103.2	103.4	102.9
61	Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7
62	T C U	101.1	104.9	101.5	102.5
63	Temple	102.4	101.2	103.7	102.4
64	BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.0	100.9	100.8	101.2
66	Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9
67	Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.3	100.0
68	Illinois	99.9	100.8	99.3	100.0
69	Western Michigan	100.1	98.7	100.4	99.7
70	Colorado	99.9	99.4	99.9	99.7
71	SMU	99.5	98.7	99.9	99.4
72	Georgia Tech	99.6	97.6	100.3	99.2
73	Arkansas	99.0	100.0	98.3	99.1
74	Tulane	98.7	99.3	99.1	99.0
75	Air Force	97.7	99.0	98.5	98.4
76	Hawaii	97.3	99.3	96.9	97.8
77	Wyoming	96.7	99.1	97.6	97.8
78	Houston	96.0	97.2	98.7	97.3
79	Ohio	96.3	95.0	97.8	96.4
80	Georgia Southern	95.9	95.1	95.1	95.4
81	Kansas	95.0	96.2	94.7	95.3
82	Nevada	94.4	96.1	94.2	94.9
83	Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9
84	Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8
85	San Diego St.	94.1	96.1	93.8	94.7
86	Oregon St.	94.6	95.8	93.2	94.5
87	Northern Illinois	94.7	93.4	94.8	94.3
88	Southern Miss.	94.7	92.3	95.0	94.0
89	Louisiana	93.8	93.9	92.9	93.5
90	Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2
91	North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1
92	Rutgers	92.2	92.5	92.0	92.2
93	Middle Tennessee	91.8	91.0	92.1	91.6
94	Tulsa	91.2	91.6	92.1	91.6
95	Toledo	91.2	91.4	92.3	91.6
96	Florida Atlantic	91.4	90.6	92.1	91.4
97	Florida Int’l.	91.2	91.0	91.7	91.3
98	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2
99	South Florida	90.4	91.5	90.5	90.8
100	Miami (Ohio)	90.8	89.1	91.3	90.4
101	Louisiana Tech	90.6	90.2	90.4	90.4
102	Eastern Michigan	89.1	89.4	89.8	89.5
103	Louisiana-Monroe	89.1	89.8	89.1	89.3
104	Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9
105	Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7
106	Navy	86.9	89.9	86.5	87.8
107	U N L V	86.8	89.3	86.9	87.7
108	Buffalo	87.0	87.8	88.0	87.6
109	Ball St.	87.1	86.7	86.8	86.9
110	Charlotte	86.3	86.9	86.7	86.6
111	Western Kentucky	85.4	86.2	86.9	86.1
112	Kent St.	85.6	85.8	86.0	85.8
113	U A B	84.7	86.6	85.2	85.5
114	East Carolina	84.5	86.6	84.2	85.1
115	San Jose St.	83.9	86.1	83.0	84.3
116	Texas St.	83.8	84.7	83.6	84.0
117	New Mexico	83.1	86.2	82.5	84.0
118	Coastal Carolina	81.3	82.4	80.2	81.3
119	Colorado St.	79.5	83.8	79.7	81.0
120	Bowling Green	80.5	80.5	80.9	80.7
121	Akron	80.6	80.7	80.5	80.6
122	Rice	79.2	80.8	78.7	79.6
123	New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0
124	Central Michigan	78.3	79.4	78.4	78.7
125	Texas-San Antonio	77.8	80.6	77.5	78.6
126	South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3
127	Old Dominion	75.0	75.3	75.0	75.1
128	Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6
129	Connecticut	73.3	77.6	71.8	74.2
130	U T E P	66.3	72.0	66.7	68.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	109.3	108.3	110.4	109.3	0-0	1-0
Cincinnati	107.6	106.0	107.7	107.1	0-0	1-0
Temple	102.4	101.2	103.7	102.4	0-0	1-0
South Florida	90.4	91.5	90.5	90.8	0-0	0-1
East Carolina	84.5	86.6	84.2	85.1	0-0	0-1
Connecticut	73.3	77.6	71.8	74.2	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.0	103.5	105.1	104.2	0-0	1-0
SMU	99.5	98.7	99.9	99.4	0-0	1-0
Tulane	98.7	99.3	99.1	99.0	0-0	1-0
Houston	96.0	97.2	98.7	97.3	0-0	0-1
Tulsa	91.2	91.6	92.1	91.6	0-0	0-1
Navy	86.9	89.9	86.5	87.8	0-0	1-0
AAC Averages	95.3	96.0	95.8	95.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.0	130.3	135.0	133.1	1-0	1-0
Syracuse	112.0	111.8	112.3	112.0	0-0	1-0
Boston College	104.9	104.6	105.6	105.0	1-0	1-0
Florida St.	104.4	104.8	104.4	104.6	0-0	0-1
North Carolina St.	103.2	103.2	104.0	103.5	0-0	1-0
Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.7	103.4	0-0	1-0
Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9	0-0	0-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.7	111.2	110.0	0-0	0-1
Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1	1-0	1-0
Virginia Tech	107.7	108.0	108.2	108.0	0-1	0-1
Pittsburgh	105.9	105.6	105.2	105.6	0-1	0-1
Duke	103.5	102.9	103.2	103.2	0-0	0-1
North Carolina	102.0	103.2	103.4	102.9	0-0	1-0
Georgia Tech	99.6	97.6	100.3	99.2	0-1	0-1
ACC Averages	106.8	106.3	107.1	106.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.9	118.9	119.6	119.5	0-0	1-0
Texas	111.9	111.8	111.5	111.7	0-0	1-0
Baylor	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2	0-0	1-0
Iowa St.	110.0	110.4	109.9	110.1	0-0	1-0
Oklahoma St.	109.8	110.4	109.3	109.8	0-0	1-0
Texas Tech	108.0	108.1	107.1	107.7	0-0	1-0
Kansas St.	107.7	107.5	107.3	107.5	0-0	1-0
West Virginia	105.9	105.7	105.4	105.6	0-0	1-0
T C U	101.1	104.9	101.5	102.5	0-0	1-0
Kansas	95.0	96.2	94.7	95.3	0-0	1-0
Big 12 Averages	108.0	108.4	107.6	108.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	121.6	119.8	121.8	121.1	0-0	1-0
Michigan	121.3	119.3	121.8	120.8	0-0	1-0
Penn St.	117.0	115.9	116.9	116.6	0-0	1-0
Michigan St.	115.9	115.6	116.1	115.9	0-0	1-0
Indiana	108.6	106.8	107.4	107.6	0-0	1-0
Maryland	104.0	103.5	102.8	103.4	0-0	1-0
Rutgers	92.2	92.5	92.0	92.2	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	114.4	113.9	114.1	114.1	0-0	1-0
Iowa	115.0	112.5	114.7	114.0	0-0	1-0
Minnesota	111.0	110.4	109.8	110.4	0-0	1-0
Northwestern	110.7	109.7	109.7	110.0	0-0	0-1
Purdue	108.2	108.1	107.6	108.0	0-0	0-1
Nebraska	105.6	107.3	105.2	106.0	0-0	1-0
Illinois	99.9	100.8	99.3	100.0	0-0	1-0
Big Ten Averages	110.4	109.7	109.9	110.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2	0-0	1-0
Middle Tennessee	91.8	91.0	92.1	91.6	0-0	0-1
Florida Atlantic	91.4	90.6	92.1	91.4	0-0	0-1
Florida Int’l.	91.2	91.0	91.7	91.3	0-0	0-1
Charlotte	86.3	86.9	86.7	86.6	0-0	1-0
Western Kentucky	85.4	86.2	86.9	86.1	0-0	0-1
Old Dominion	75.0	75.3	75.0	75.1	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.7	92.3	95.0	94.0	0-0	1-0
North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1	0-0	1-0
Louisiana Tech	90.6	90.2	90.4	90.4	0-0	0-1
U A B	84.7	86.6	85.2	85.5	0-0	1-0
Rice	79.2	80.8	78.7	79.6	0-0	0-1
Texas-San Antonio	77.8	80.6	77.5	78.6	0-0	1-0
U T E P	66.3	72.0	66.7	68.3	0-0	1-0
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	86.1	86.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.2	118.4	120.2	119.6	x	1-0
BYU	101.4	101.2	101.4	101.3	x	0-1
Army	100.2	100.2	99.8	100.1	x	1-0
Liberty	88.0	89.3	88.3	88.5	x	0-1
New Mexico St.	76.6	79.3	76.2	77.3	x	0-1
Massachusetts	73.4	76.2	72.8	74.1	x	0-1
Indep. Averages	93.3	94.1	93.1	93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.3	95.0	97.8	96.4	0-0	1-0
Miami (Ohio)	90.8	89.1	91.3	90.4	0-0	0-1
Buffalo	87.0	87.8	88.0	87.6	0-0	1-0
Kent St.	85.6	85.8	86.0	85.8	0-0	0-1
Bowling Green	80.5	80.5	80.9	80.7	0-0	1-0
Akron	80.6	80.7	80.5	80.6	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	100.1	98.7	100.4	99.7	0-0	1-0
Northern Illinois	94.7	93.4	94.8	94.3	0-0	1-0
Toledo	91.2	91.4	92.3	91.6	0-0	0-1
Eastern Michigan	89.1	89.4	89.8	89.5	0-0	1-0
Ball St.	87.1	86.7	86.8	86.9	0-0	0-1
Central Michigan	78.3	79.4	78.4	78.7	0-0	1-0
MAC Averages	88.4	88.2	88.9	88.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.5	0-0	1-0
Utah St.	105.4	104.2	106.8	105.4	0-0	0-1
Air Force	97.7	99.0	98.5	98.4	0-0	1-0
Wyoming	96.7	99.1	97.6	97.8	0-0	1-0
New Mexico	83.1	86.2	82.5	84.0	0-0	1-0
Colorado St.	79.5	83.8	79.7	81.0	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.3	100.0	0-0	0-1
Hawaii	97.3	99.3	96.9	97.8	0-0	1-0
Nevada	94.4	96.1	94.2	94.9	0-0	1-0
San Diego St.	94.1	96.1	93.8	94.7	0-0	1-0
U N L V	86.8	89.3	86.9	87.7	0-0	1-0
San Jose St.	83.9	86.1	83.0	84.3	0-0	1-0
MWC Averages	93.8	95.4	93.9	94.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	113.1	113.1	114.2	113.5	0-0	0-1
Washington	113.3	112.5	114.4	113.4	0-0	1-0
Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0	0-0	1-0
Stanford	109.3	108.2	109.4	109.0	0-0	1-0
California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4	0-0	1-0
Oregon St.	94.6	95.8	93.2	94.5	0-0	0-1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.8	115.2	117.2	116.4	0-0	1-0
Arizona St.	107.3	106.3	107.7	107.1	0-0	1-0
U C L A	106.0	105.6	105.3	105.7	0-0	0-1
U S C	103.8	105.2	104.3	104.5	0-0	1-0
Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9	0-0	0-1
Colorado	99.9	99.4	99.9	99.7	0-0	1-0
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.9	123.9	126.3	125.4	1-0	1-0
Florida	120.0	117.1	119.0	118.7	0-0	1-0
Missouri	112.5	109.6	112.4	111.5	0-0	0-1
South Carolina	111.0	109.6	111.0	110.5	0-0	0-1
Kentucky	108.4	107.2	107.2	107.6	0-0	1-0
Tennessee	107.1	106.9	105.5	106.5	0-0	0-1
Vanderbilt	104.3	103.0	103.4	103.6	0-1	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.8	131.5	136.7	134.6	0-0	1-0
L S U	126.1	123.3	125.0	124.8	0-0	1-0
Texas A&M	118.6	117.1	117.2	117.7	0-0	1-0
Auburn	117.2	114.8	116.5	116.2	0-0	1-0
Mississippi St.	116.5	111.8	116.0	114.8	0-0	1-0
Ole Miss	102.0	100.9	100.8	101.2	0-0	0-1
Arkansas	99.0	100.0	98.3	99.1	0-0	1-0
SEC Averages	114.6	112.6	113.9	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.5	103.4	104.6	104.5	0-0	1-0
Georgia Southern	95.9	95.1	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-1
Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8	0-0	1-0
Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9	0-0	1-0
Coastal Carolina	81.3	82.4	80.2	81.3	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	93.8	93.9	92.9	93.5	0-0	0-1
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2	0-0	0-1
Louisiana-Monroe	89.1	89.8	89.1	89.3	0-0	1-0
Texas St.	83.8	84.7	83.6	84.0	0-0	0-1
South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3	0-0	0-1
SBC Averages	90.1	90.7	89.4	90.0

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.7
2	BTen	110.0
3	B12	108.0
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	106.7
6	AAC	95.7
7	MWC	94.4
8	Ind	93.5
9	SUN	90.0
10	MAC	88.5
11	CUSA	86.1

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Utah St.
5	Appalachian St.

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Miami (O)]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Louisiana-Monroe
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	California
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Florida Int’l.	Georgia St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Purdue]	Southern Miss.
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	Hawaii	Houston
Independence	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Maryland
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Stanford
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Baylor
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Central Florida
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	Kansas St.
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Indiana]	Miami (Fla.)
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	Arkansas
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Vanderbilt
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	Utah St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Michigan St.
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Army]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Wisconsin
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Northwestern	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Appalachian St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Oklahoma
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Woe To Us

One week into the season, panic has set in at a number of schools after unexpected losses or even unimpressive wins have sent the fans of certain schools into full-scale panic.

Worst of the lot is the University of Tennessee.  The Volunteers, 25-point favorites, lost at home to Georgia State in a game that Vols were clearly manhandled by the team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Eastern Division in 2019.

Calls have come from within a lot of the fan base for massive changes to be made just 13 games into Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s head coaching career.  There are even calls to rid Athletics Director Phil Fulmer of his duties as well.

Today, in our little old folks reminiscing feature, I will tell you that contrary to the current popular belief, that this loss in Knoxville is not the worst loss in modern day history.

Let’s set the Time Machine back to 1958.  Coach Bowden Wyatt led an archaic Tennessee Single Wing offense that as recently as 1956 had allowed the Big Orange to run the table in the regular season and finish 2nd nationally to champion Oklahoma.

The following year, Tennessee won eight games including the Gator Bowl.  Two of their three losses came to top 5 teams.

In 1958, the Vols stumbled coming out of the gate.  In a 2-4 start that produced little offense and strong defense, Coach Wyatt all of a sudden found himself in hot water.  Tennessee fans, spoiled under the long reign of General Robert Neyland, reacted to this 2-4 start like former New York Yankees manager George Steinbrenner used to react when his team won only 90 games and missed out on the American League Division title.

Game seven was one of those automatic wins against tiny in-state rival Chattanooga.  The Mocs at times in the 20th Century were classified as Major College, or the equivalent of today’s FBS.  However, in 1958, they were Small College, or the equivalent of FCS.

Chattanooga entered this game coming off a loss at Tennessee Tech, and nobody gave Coach Scrappy Moore’s team any hope playing the mighty Vols at Shield-Watkins Field.  When the game started, Chattanooga’s defense, led by future American Football League starter Charlie Long at linebacker (he was also a starting offensive guard and played that position with the Boston Patriots), had little problem stopping Tennessee’s balanced-line Single Wing offense.  Time and time again, Tennessee ran line bucks, off-tackle plays, sweeps, and traps, and the Mocs defense stopped the attack and forced punts.

Chattanooga’s offense was not a juggernaut, but on this day, the Mocs would garner two touchdown drives and led 14-0 with precious little time remaining.  The stadium began to lose its home fans rapidly, as the then 46,000 seat stadium had about 30,000 people in seats.  This was a good thing because of what would happen in a few minutes.

Tennessee mounted one final desperation drive with the forward pass, something Wyatt-coached Vols teams used infrequently.  Chattanooga played a loose defense, allowing the Vols to use up the rest of the clock but finally scoring points in the last few seconds of the game.  The extra point was blocked, and Chattanooga pulled off its greatest ever upset, beating Tennessee in Knoxville 14-6.

The Chattanooga fans, totally excited over their impossible feat, stormed the field and tore down the goalposts.  What happens next has been told to me in the past by older acquaintances that lived in Chattanooga and have passed on to their reward.  Here’s a composite of these stories told to me many years ago:

The Tennessee fans that remained until the end of the game took offense at the Chattanooga fans storming their field and tearing down their goalposts.  When about 100 Vols’ fans decided to let the mob rule, they began to attack the Mocs fans, and within a few seconds, this became a full-scale riot.

In what has been described to me to have resembled the streets of Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the Knoxville police had to bring their riot gear and paddy wagons to the campus.  Eventually, tear gas was lobbed onto the field to stop the violence that had gotten well out of control.  Many Chattanooga fans and a handful of Tennessee fans had been detained and carted off to vehicles to be transferred to jail.

Here’s the most outrageous part of this story.  The sheriff of Hamilton County (Chattanooga as the county seat) was at this game as a fan.  He rounded up a “posse” of Mocs to attempt to overpower the Knoxville police and emancipate the arrested Chattanooga fans.  The sheriff was then arrested by the Knoxville police.

Tennessee had two home games remaining in 1958, and the administration decided they would not purchase new goalposts.  Instead, they erected very cheap wooden goalposts, the type anybody could construct by going to Home Depot, Lowe’s, or Menard’s today.

Coach Wyatt was barbecued in the local newspapers.  The Knoxville Journal and the Knoxville News-Sentinel opposed each other in 1958 like Fox News and CNN oppose each other today.  Yet, the two papers were in agreement that something needed to be done.  At 2-5, Tennessee now faced a closing three games against a top-5 Ole Miss team that had lost only to eventual national champion LSU; a decent Kentucky team under future Cleveland Browns head coach Blanton Collier; and a Vanderbilt team that would lose only one game prior to the season-ending contest with the Vols.

Staring a potential 2-8 season in the face, there was no joy in “The Marble City.”  Tennessee football was to Knoxville on Saturdays what it is to Green Bay on Sundays.

With the makeshift goalposts, Tennessee entered their game with Ole Miss as double-digit underdogs at home.  Having done exhaustive research, this was a first at Shields-Watkins Field.  Rarely had the Vols been underdogs at home under Neyland, so being a double-digit underdog to the Rebels was a new low.

As unexpected as their loss was to Chattanooga the previous week, the Vols went the opposite way against Coach Johnny Vaught’s Rebels.  Ole Miss had just scored 56 points the previous week against Houston, and their defense was giving up less than six points per game.  Even LSU could muster only 14 points, so the Vols’ Single Wing offense looked to be in a huge bind, and it was conceivable that Tennessee would be lucky to even cross midfield.

Not only did Tennessee move the ball across midfield, they moved it up and down the field for most of the day, while their defense slowed a great Split-T attack and Ole Miss’s top back, Charlie Flowers, had trouble moving the ball for most of the day.  An 18-16 upset was as big as the upset loss to Chattanooga.

Ironically, the Vols’ fans stormed the field after this game and quickly made short work of the cheap, makeshift goalposts.  Tennessee had to erect another set of wooden goalposts for its final home game.  Also ironically, goalposts would not be needed in that final home game, as neither Tennessee nor Kentucky attempted an extra point that day.  The Vol offense returned to its inept depths and failed to produce points.  A safety by the defense prevented the goose egg from staying on the old scoreboard.  Kentucky scored a lone touchdown and missed a two-point conversion but won 6-2.  This guaranteed a losing season for the Vols.

The season ended with Tennessee visiting their in-state rival Vanderbilt in Nashville.  This Vanderbilt team was ranked number 15 and looking at a likely Sun, Gator, or Bluegrass Bowl bid with a win over the lowly Vols.  Vanderbilt entered this game without an SEC loss and only one overall, which came against a Clemson team that won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship and would face LSU in the Sugar Bowl.

After Coach Neyland came to Knoxville, Vanderbilt was rarely favored to beat their nemesis down the road on US Highway 70.  On this late November day, the Commodores were expected to win easily and give some of their second team players extra experience.

Once again, the Vols came out fired up and stopped Vanderbilt’s version of the Split-T and Wing-T offense.  The UT Single Wing offense was not potent by any means, but they moved the ball.  In 1958, few teams made more than two or three field goals in an entire season, and many did not make even one.  On this day, a field goal gave the Vols a surprising early lead, and Tennessee led 10-6 in the fourth quarter.  Two long Vanderbilt drives ended with turnovers, a fumble on the first and an interception on the second.  The Vol player (cannot remember his name) that recovered the fumble also picked off the pass, and Tennessee shocked Vandy at Dudley Field.  As a result, the Commodores were passed over for the bowl bids.  The Sun Bowl took Hardin-Simmons; the Bluegrass Bowl in Louisville took Florida State; and the Gator Bowl chose Florida and Ole Miss.

To all the Vols fans, as well as those that cheer for Tennessee to lose, let this be a warning to you.  The same can be said to Florida State, South Carolina, Missouri, UCLA, and Arizona fans this week.  Your team failed miserably in game one, but you never know what might happen in game two.  This going to the extremes, believing your team might be Playoff bound if they win their first game, and believing that the sky is falling if they lose their first game, is a ridiculous emotion.  It’s just the first game.  Teams have stunk in their first game and proceeded to win the national championship.  Not that this will happen in 2019, but the Seminoles, Gamecocks, Tigers, Bruins, Wildcats, and Vols fans still have reason to believe that this current low point will be replaced with multiple reversals of misfortune.

Week Two–Some Marquee Games

This will be a Saturday to make plans to watch a lot of football if you are a big college fan.

Noon, EDT

Michigan vs. Army–Fox Sports

This is the best early game.  The Wolverines had some trouble against Middle Tennessee in week one, while Army struggled with Rice.  This game may be lower scoring than first expected, but both teams did not show their entire playbooks last week.  I expect more offense and will look at the totals numbers for this game.  If Army can pull off the upset, the Black Knights can easily run the table for the regular season and possibly earn a spot in the Cotton Bowl.  Army is not eligible for the guaranteed Group of 5 New Year’s Bowl bid, as this goes to the highest-rated Group of 5 Conference Champion.  However, if the men from West Point beat Michigan and proceed to go 13-0 in the regular season, they could still be selected as an at-large team for the Cotton Bowl.

Of course, Michigan is a tough team to beat at The Big House, and Army does not wear scarlet and gray uniforms.

Purdue vs. Vanderbilt–Big Ten Network

This looks like a bowl eliminator game, even in week 2.  Purdue watched a 17-point lead disappear in Reno against Nevada.  Vanderbilt suffered against national contender Georgia and has injuries on its already thin offensive line.  The team that emerges 1-1 will still hold bowl hopes for 2019.  The loser has little path to six wins.

3:30 PM EDT

Clemson vs. Texas A&M–ABC

The Aggies gave the Tigers one of their two toughest battles last year in College Station, and Coach Jimbo Fisher certainly knows how to prepare for a game against his former rival when he coached at Florida State.  Having to go to Deaf Valley to place Trevor the Great may be asking the Aggies to do the impossible, but Clemson didn’t look like a super team against Georgia Tech last week, and Lawrence actually completed two passes to the wrong colored jersey.  This game might be quite interesting if the Aggies can contain the CU running game and make Clemson one dimensional.

7:30 PM EDT

Texas vs. LSU–ABC

This may be the overall best game of the week.  Texas looked just as strong if not stronger beating Louisiana Tech in week one as they looked like last year when they beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.  LSU looked like a team that Alabama fans need to worry about, as the new Tiger offense did things through the air that it had not done before, even in the Bert Jones days.  Joe Burrow added his name to Heisman Trophy contention after week one.  The winner of this game stays in Playoff contention.  The loser is already looking at top tier bowl but no Playoffs.

8:00 PM EDT

North Carolina vs. Miami–ACC Network

Kudos to Coach Mack Brown for showing the nation that old guys can still teach new tricks to the youngsters.  North Carolina can now become a co-favorite for the Coastal Division flag with a win over Miami in week two.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had an extra week to lick their wounds after falling to rival Florida in a game that Miami had a chance to win at the end.

10:30 PM EDT

Washington vs. California–FS1

After Oregon lost in the final nine seconds to Auburn, the Pac-12 was placed behind the 8-ball.  It is going to take a 12-0 team from the Pac-12 to make the Playoffs, so this game will see one team emerge as having accomplished what is mandatory for that to happen.  Washington quarterback Jacob Eason looked like a potential first team All Pac-12 player in game one, but then Eastern Washington’s defense is not the standard to judge excellence.

Cal had to come from behind to beat FCS rival UC Davis.  Having to go to Seattle for this game makes the Bears a solid underdog, but Coach Justin Wilcox is impressing us with his handling of the boys from Berkeley.  Expect this game to be closer than expected and most likely quite exciting.  Cal stopped the Huskies last year in a 12-10 win.

Stanford vs. USC–ESPN

When USC quarterback J.T. Daniels went down with a season-ending injury in the middle of the Fresno State game, you could just see Coach Clay Helton’s subconscious brain imagining the help-wanted ads in the Los Angeles Times.  With an incredibly difficult schedule and a mandate to win 8 or 9 games this year, how does Helton survive the season much less get through it to the end with a true freshman signal caller?

Helton and the Trojans may have a shot against the Cardinal, because Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello might not play after suffering a gruesome hit in what should have been called a targeting penalty against Northwestern.  Costello might be in the concussion protocol and unable to play in this game, and backup Davis Mills did not produce any points after entering the game for the second half.

The winner of this game will be an unconvincing 2-0 team, but the loser will be in dire straits at 1-1.  USC faces four consecutive games where they will be the underdog, while Stanford decided to play Central Florida and Notre Dame as two of its three non-conference games.  The Cardinal may not have five more wins on their schedule if they lose this game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday	August 24
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida (n)	Miami (Fla.)	11.0	9.5	8.9
Hawaii	Arizona	-2.2	-0.3	-3.4
Thursday	August 29
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	UCLA	2.6	1.1	3.7
Tulane	Florida Int’l.	4.4	5.4	3.7
Clemson	Georgia Tech	36.7	34.0	36.7
Texas A&M	Texas St.	36.5	33.7	34.9
Arizona St.	Kent St.	26.4	24.6	26.8
BYU	Utah	-13.5	-11.5	-13.5
Friday	August 30
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Rice	28.2	26.4	28.7
South Florida	Wisconsin	-12.1	-10.1	-10.9
Michigan St.	Tulsa	27.1	26.4	26.2
Rutgers	Massachusetts	21.2	18.1	21.2
Wake Forest	Utah St.	1.3	2.0	0.0
Nevada	Purdue	-15.2	-13.4	-15.2
Colorado (n)	Colorado St.	20.5	14.8	20.6
Oregon St.	Oklahoma St.	-11.9	-10.8	-12.3
Saturday	August 31
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	18.9	16.1	19.5
Illinois	Akron	16.5	17.3	15.4
Indiana (n)	Ball St.	23.8	22.4	23.3
Nebraska	South Alabama	35.9	33.8	36.8
Ohio St.	Florida Atlantic	32.2	31.1	31.7
Kentucky	Toledo	21.3	19.7	19.0
Memphis	Ole Miss	3.1	3.7	5.6
Louisiana (n)	Mississippi St.	-25.0	-19.6	-25.8
North Carolina (n)	South Carolina	-14.3	-11.3	-12.7
Tennessee	Georgia St.	30.8	29.0	30.3
Alabama (n)	Duke	31.3	26.7	32.2
Coastal Carolina	Eastern Michigan	-5.2	-4.1	-7.1
Stanford	Northwestern	0.3	0.1	1.5
Boston College	Virginia Tech	-1.5	-2.6	-1.6
Liberty	Syracuse	-21.3	-19.4	-21.0
Arkansas St.	SMU	-5.4	-4.3	-5.8
Florida St. (n)	Boise St.	2.0	3.6	1.9
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-18.7	-17.8	-20.0
Auburn (n)	Oregon	3.8	0.9	1.5
LSU	Georgia Southern	28.0	25.3	27.3
Wyoming	Missouri	-18.5	-12.7	-17.7
Iowa	Miami (O)	27.4	26.6	26.8
Michigan	Middle Tennessee	35.2	33.8	35.8
Pittsburgh	Virginia	3.4	2.4	2.7
Texas	Louisiana Tech	23.4	23.5	22.5
Washington St.	New Mexico St.	37.0	32.5	37.4
USC	Fresno St.	7.2	8.0	6.8
Sunday/Monday	September 1/2
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma	Houston	28.2	25.7	24.9
Louisville	Notre Dame	-23.8	-22.4	-25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate
San Jose St.	Northern Colorado	14.5
Connecticut	Wagner	12.6
Central Michigan	Albany	9.8
Bowling Green	Morgan St.	17.2
Buffalo	Robert Morris	43.9
Charlotte	Gardner-Webb	26.5
Western Kentucky	Central Arkansas	11.9
Central Florida	Florida A&M	45.5
UAB	Alabama St.	45.5
Minnesota	South Dakota St.	12.7
UNLV	Southern Utah	17.3
Air Force	Colgate	11.3
New Mexico	Sam Houston St.	9.7
Maryland	Howard	36.0
Iowa St.	Northern Iowa	22.2
Kansas	Indiana St.	13.8
West Virginia	James Madison	18.5
Ohio U	Rhode Island	27.6
Washington	E. Washington	18.0
Temple	Bucknell	44.2
Navy	Holy Cross	24.4
Penn St.	Idaho	40.5
Appalachian St.	East Tennessee	36.3
Arkansas	Portland St.	21.0
Texas Tech	Montana St.	25.7
UTSA	Incarnate Word	7.3
Troy	Campbell	33.8
California	UC-Davis	14.5
Marshall	VMI	37.8
Old Dominion	Norfolk St.	23.5
Southern Miss	Alcorn St.	23.6
Kansas St.	Nicholls	23.9
Baylor	Stephen F Austin	37.3
Northern Illinois	Illinois St.	7.3
Western Michigan	Monmouth	20.5
North Texas	Abilene Christian	19.4
UTEP	Houston Baptist	15.2
TCU	Ark. Pine Bluff	52.3
Louisiana-Monroe	Grambling	24.3
San Diego St.	Weber St.	8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.3	130.6	136.1	134.0
2	Clemson	133.8	129.6	134.6	132.7
3	Georgia	125.7	123.6	126.1	125.1
4	Michigan	122.9	120.8	123.6	122.4
5	L S U	123.5	120.4	122.2	122.0
6	Ohio St.	121.1	119.3	121.3	120.6
7	Notre Dame	121.0	119.1	121.5	120.5
8	Oklahoma	120.5	119.4	120.1	120.0
9	Florida	120.7	117.8	119.7	119.4
10	Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	116.7	117.2
11	Utah	116.6	114.7	116.8	116.0
12	Auburn	117.0	114.4	116.1	115.8
13	Mississippi St.	117.5	112.5	117.2	115.7
14	Michigan St.	115.6	115.3	115.7	115.5
15	Penn St.	115.0	113.9	114.9	114.6
16	Missouri	115.5	112.4	115.5	114.5
17	Iowa	115.1	112.6	114.9	114.2
18	Oregon	113.3	113.5	114.6	113.8
19	South Carolina	113.8	112.2	113.7	113.2
20	Washington	112.7	111.9	113.8	112.8
21	Iowa St.	111.8	112.2	111.7	111.9
22	Syracuse	111.9	111.5	112.0	111.8
23	Washington St.	112.0	110.7	112.2	111.6
24	Tennessee	111.8	111.6	110.3	111.2
25	Minnesota	111.8	111.2	110.6	111.2
26	Texas	111.4	111.2	110.7	111.1
27	Northwestern	111.3	110.4	110.3	110.7
28	Purdue	110.4	110.3	110.0	110.2
29	Baylor	110.3	110.2	109.8	110.1
30	Miami (Fla.)	109.6	108.3	110.8	109.6
31	Oklahoma St.	109.6	110.0	108.9	109.5
32	Wisconsin	109.7	109.0	109.0	109.2
33	Virginia Tech	108.5	109.1	109.2	108.9
34	Indiana	109.6	107.8	108.6	108.7
35	Stanford	108.7	107.5	108.8	108.3
36	Central Florida	108.1	107.1	109.2	108.1
37	Kentucky	108.8	107.5	107.6	108.0
38	Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	108.5	107.7
39	Pittsburgh	108.0	107.6	107.4	107.7
40	Nebraska	107.2	108.8	107.0	107.7
41	California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4
42	Virginia	107.1	107.7	107.2	107.3
43	Texas Tech	107.5	107.6	106.6	107.2
44	U C L A	107.1	106.9	106.3	106.8
45	Kansas St.	107.0	106.8	106.6	106.8
46	Cincinnati	106.8	105.0	107.0	106.3
47	West Virginia	106.4	106.2	105.9	106.1
48	Utah St.	105.6	104.3	107.0	105.6
49	Florida St.	105.2	105.9	105.4	105.5
50	Boise St.	105.2	104.3	105.5	105.0
51	U S C	103.8	105.2	104.2	104.4
52	Appalachian St.	105.4	103.3	104.5	104.4
53	Boston College	104.1	103.5	104.6	104.1
54	Memphis	103.8	103.3	105.0	104.0
55	Duke	104.0	103.8	103.8	103.9
56	Vanderbilt	104.5	103.3	103.6	103.8
57	Wake Forest	103.4	102.8	103.5	103.2
58	T C U	101.8	105.6	102.2	103.2
59	Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7
60	North Carolina St.	102.5	102.2	103.1	102.6
61	Temple	102.2	101.0	103.5	102.2
62	Arizona	101.9	102.0	102.4	102.1
63	Maryland	102.3	101.8	101.1	101.7
64	BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.2	101.1	100.9	101.4
66	North Carolina	99.5	100.9	101.0	100.5
67	Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.4	100.1
68	Georgia Tech	100.1	98.6	101.0	99.9
69	Colorado	100.0	99.0	100.1	99.7
70	Arkansas	99.5	100.5	98.8	99.6
71	Western Michigan	99.6	98.2	99.9	99.2
72	SMU	99.4	98.4	99.6	99.1
73	Georgia Southern	98.5	98.0	97.9	98.2
74	Air Force	96.7	98.0	97.5	97.4
75	Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.3	97.2
76	Houston	95.4	96.7	98.2	96.7
77	Ohio	96.5	95.2	98.0	96.6
78	Tulane	95.9	96.6	96.0	96.2
79	Hawaii	95.7	97.7	95.0	96.1
80	Kansas	95.3	96.5	95.0	95.6
81	South Florida	94.6	95.9	95.1	95.2
82	Wyoming	94.0	96.6	94.8	95.1
83	Oregon St.	94.8	96.2	93.6	94.9
84	San Diego St.	94.2	96.2	93.9	94.8
85	Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8
86	Florida Int’l.	94.0	93.7	94.8	94.2
87	Northern Illinois	94.5	93.2	94.6	94.1
88	Louisville	94.7	94.2	93.0	93.9
89	Southern Miss.	94.6	92.2	94.9	93.9
90	Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2
91	North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1
92	Nevada	92.2	93.9	91.8	92.6
93	Louisiana	92.5	92.9	91.4	92.3
94	Tulsa	91.5	91.9	92.5	92.0
95	Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.1	92.6	91.9
96	Rutgers	91.9	91.9	91.5	91.8
97	Arkansas St.	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5
98	Louisiana Tech	91.1	90.8	91.2	91.0
99	Toledo	90.5	90.8	91.6	90.9
100	Middle Tennessee	90.7	90.0	90.8	90.5
101	Miami (Ohio)	90.7	89.0	91.1	90.3
102	Louisiana-Monroe	89.2	89.9	89.2	89.4
103	Eastern Michigan	89.0	89.2	89.8	89.4
104	Buffalo	88.2	89.0	89.2	88.8
105	Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7
106	Western Kentucky	87.9	88.7	89.4	88.6
107	U A B	87.2	89.1	87.7	88.0
108	U N L V	86.4	88.9	86.5	87.3
109	Navy	86.2	89.2	85.8	87.1
110	Charlotte	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7
111	East Carolina	85.2	87.6	85.1	86.0
112	Ball St.	85.8	85.4	85.3	85.5
113	Kent St.	85.0	85.5	85.2	85.2
114	San Jose St.	83.8	86.0	82.9	84.2
115	Georgia St.	84.0	85.6	83.0	84.2
116	Texas St.	83.8	84.9	83.8	84.2
117	New Mexico	83.2	86.3	82.6	84.1
118	Akron	83.3	83.4	83.5	83.4
119	Coastal Carolina	81.4	82.6	80.2	81.4
120	Colorado St.	79.4	84.2	79.5	81.0
121	New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0
122	Bowling Green	78.5	78.5	78.9	78.7
123	Central Michigan	78.1	79.2	78.2	78.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	77.2	80.0	76.9	78.0
125	Rice	77.1	78.8	76.4	77.5
126	Old Dominion	75.7	76.0	75.7	75.8
127	South Alabama	74.3	78.0	73.1	75.2
128	Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6
129	Connecticut	73.6	77.9	72.1	74.5
130	U T E P	66.9	72.6	67.3	68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	108.1	107.1	109.2	108.1	0-0	0-0
Cincinnati	106.8	105.0	107.0	106.3	0-0	0-0
Temple	102.2	101.0	103.5	102.2	0-0	0-0
South Florida	94.6	95.9	95.1	95.2	0-0	0-0
East Carolina	85.2	87.6	85.1	86.0	0-0	0-0
Connecticut	73.6	77.9	72.1	74.5	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	103.8	103.3	105.0	104.0	0-0	0-0
SMU	99.4	98.4	99.6	99.1	0-0	0-0
Houston	95.4	96.7	98.2	96.7	0-0	0-0
Tulane	95.9	96.6	96.0	96.2	0-0	0-0
Tulsa	91.5	91.9	92.5	92.0	0-0	0-0
Navy	86.2	89.2	85.8	87.1	0-0	0-0
AAC Averages	95.2	95.9	95.8	95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.8	129.6	134.6	132.7	0-0	0-0
Syracuse	111.9	111.5	112.0	111.8	0-0	0-0
Florida St.	105.2	105.9	105.4	105.5	0-0	0-0
Boston College	104.1	103.5	104.6	104.1	0-0	0-0
Wake Forest	103.4	102.8	103.5	103.2	0-0	0-0
North Carolina St.	102.5	102.2	103.1	102.6	0-0	0-0
Louisville	94.7	94.2	93.0	93.9	0-0	0-0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	109.6	108.3	110.8	109.6	0-0	0-0
Virginia Tech	108.5	109.1	109.2	108.9	0-0	0-0
Pittsburgh	108.0	107.6	107.4	107.7	0-0	0-0
Virginia	107.1	107.7	107.2	107.3	0-0	0-0
Duke	104.0	103.8	103.8	103.9	0-0	0-0
North Carolina	99.5	100.9	101.0	100.5	0-0	0-0
Georgia Tech	100.1	98.6	101.0	99.9	0-0	0-0
ACC Averages	106.6	106.1	106.9	106.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	120.5	119.4	120.1	120.0	0-0	0-0
Iowa St.	111.8	112.2	111.7	111.9	0-0	0-0
Texas	111.4	111.2	110.7	111.1	0-0	0-0
Baylor	110.3	110.2	109.8	110.1	0-0	0-0
Oklahoma St.	109.6	110.0	108.9	109.5	0-0	0-0
Texas Tech	107.5	107.6	106.6	107.2	0-0	0-0
Kansas St.	107.0	106.8	106.6	106.8	0-0	0-0
West Virginia	106.4	106.2	105.9	106.1	0-0	0-0
T C U	101.8	105.6	102.2	103.2	0-0	0-0
Kansas	95.3	96.5	95.0	95.6	0-0	0-0
Big 12 Averages	108.2	108.6	107.7	108.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	122.9	120.8	123.6	122.4	0-0	0-0
Ohio St.	121.1	119.3	121.3	120.6	0-0	0-0
Michigan St.	115.6	115.3	115.7	115.5	0-0	0-0
Penn St.	115.0	113.9	114.9	114.6	0-0	0-0
Indiana	109.6	107.8	108.6	108.7	0-0	0-0
Maryland	102.3	101.8	101.1	101.7	0-0	0-0
Rutgers	91.9	91.9	91.5	91.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	115.1	112.6	114.9	114.2	0-0	0-0
Minnesota	111.8	111.2	110.6	111.2	0-0	0-0
Northwestern	111.3	110.4	110.3	110.7	0-0	0-0
Purdue	110.4	110.3	110.0	110.2	0-0	0-0
Wisconsin	109.7	109.0	109.0	109.2	0-0	0-0
Nebraska	107.2	108.8	107.0	107.7	0-0	0-0
Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.3	97.2	0-0	0-0
Big Ten Averages	110.1	109.4	109.6	109.7
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Int’l.	94.0	93.7	94.8	94.2	0-0	0-0
Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2	0-0	0-0
Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.1	92.6	91.9	0-0	0-0
Middle Tennessee	90.7	90.0	90.8	90.5	0-0	0-0
Western Kentucky	87.9	88.7	89.4	88.6	0-0	0-0
Charlotte	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7	0-0	0-0
Old Dominion	75.7	76.0	75.7	75.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	92.2	94.9	93.9	0-0	0-0
North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1	0-0	0-0
Louisiana Tech	91.1	90.8	91.2	91.0	0-0	0-0
U A B	87.2	89.1	87.7	88.0	0-0	0-0
Texas-San Antonio	77.2	80.0	76.9	78.0	0-0	0-0
Rice	77.1	78.8	76.4	77.5	0-0	0-0
U T E P	66.9	72.6	67.3	68.9	0-0	0-0
CUSA Averages	86.2	86.8	86.6	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.0	119.1	121.5	120.5	x	0-0
Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7	x	0-0
BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7	x	0-0
Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7	x	0-0
New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0	x	0-0
Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6	x	0-0
Indep. Averages	94.2	95.2	94.3	94.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.5	95.2	98.0	96.6	0-0	0-0
Miami (Ohio)	90.7	89.0	91.1	90.3	0-0	0-0
Buffalo	88.2	89.0	89.2	88.8	0-0	0-0
Kent St.	85.0	85.5	85.2	85.2	0-0	0-0
Akron	83.3	83.4	83.5	83.4	0-0	0-0
Bowling Green	78.5	78.5	78.9	78.7	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	99.6	98.2	99.9	99.2	0-0	0-0
Northern Illinois	94.5	93.2	94.6	94.1	0-0	0-0
Toledo	90.5	90.8	91.6	90.9	0-0	0-0
Eastern Michigan	89.0	89.2	89.8	89.4	0-0	0-0
Ball St.	85.8	85.4	85.3	85.5	0-0	0-0
Central Michigan	78.1	79.2	78.2	78.5	0-0	0-0
MAC Averages	88.3	88.1	88.8	88.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	105.6	104.3	107.0	105.6	0-0	0-0
Boise St.	105.2	104.3	105.5	105.0	0-0	0-0
Air Force	96.7	98.0	97.5	97.4	0-0	0-0
Wyoming	94.0	96.6	94.8	95.1	0-0	0-0
New Mexico	83.2	86.3	82.6	84.1	0-0	0-0
Colorado St.	79.4	84.2	79.5	81.0	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.4	100.1	0-0	0-0
Hawaii	95.7	97.7	95.0	96.1	0-0	0-0
San Diego St.	94.2	96.2	93.9	94.8	0-0	0-0
Nevada	92.2	93.9	91.8	92.6	0-0	0-0
U N L V	86.4	88.9	86.5	87.3	0-0	0-0
San Jose St.	83.8	86.0	82.9	84.2	0-0	0-0
MWC Averages	93.0	94.7	93.1	93.6
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	113.3	113.5	114.6	113.8	0-0	0-0
Washington	112.7	111.9	113.8	112.8	0-0	0-0
Washington St.	112.0	110.7	112.2	111.6	0-0	0-0
Stanford	108.7	107.5	108.8	108.3	0-0	0-0
California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4	0-0	0-0
Oregon St.	94.8	96.2	93.6	94.9	0-0	0-0
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	114.7	116.8	116.0	0-0	0-0
Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	108.5	107.7	0-0	0-0
U C L A	107.1	106.9	106.3	106.8	0-0	0-0
U S C	103.8	105.2	104.2	104.4	0-0	0-0
Arizona	101.9	102.0	102.4	102.1	0-0	0-0
Colorado	100.0	99.0	100.1	99.7	0-0	0-0
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.5	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.7	123.6	126.1	125.1	0-0	0-0
Florida	120.7	117.8	119.7	119.4	0-0	0-0
Missouri	115.5	112.4	115.5	114.5	0-0	0-0
South Carolina	113.8	112.2	113.7	113.2	0-0	0-0
Tennessee	111.8	111.6	110.3	111.2	0-0	0-0
Kentucky	108.8	107.5	107.6	108.0	0-0	0-0
Vanderbilt	104.5	103.3	103.6	103.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	130.6	136.1	134.0	0-0	0-0
L S U	123.5	120.4	122.2	122.0	0-0	0-0
Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	116.7	117.2	0-0	0-0
Auburn	117.0	114.4	116.1	115.8	0-0	0-0
Mississippi St.	117.5	112.5	117.2	115.7	0-0	0-0
Ole Miss	102.2	101.1	100.9	101.4	0-0	0-0
Arkansas	99.5	100.5	98.8	99.6	0-0	0-0
SEC Averages	115.3	113.2	114.6	114.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.4	103.3	104.5	104.4	0-0	0-0
Georgia Southern	98.5	98.0	97.9	98.2	0-0	0-0
Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8	0-0	0-0
Georgia St.	84.0	85.6	83.0	84.2	0-0	0-0
Coastal Carolina	81.4	82.6	80.2	81.4	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	92.5	92.9	91.4	92.3	0-0	0-0
Arkansas St.	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5	0-0	0-0
Louisiana-Monroe	89.2	89.9	89.2	89.4	0-0	0-0
Texas St.	83.8	84.9	83.8	84.2	0-0	0-0
South Alabama	74.3	78.0	73.1	75.2	0-0	0-0
SBC Averages	89.5	90.2	88.8	89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	114.4
2	BTen	109.7
3	B12	108.2
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	106.5
6	AAC	95.6
7	Ind	94.5
8	MWC	93.6
9	SUN	89.5
10	MAC	88.4
11	CUSA	86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Cincinnati
3	Utah St.
4	Boise St.
5	Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Southern Miss.
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Houston	Florida Int’l.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Temple	Georgia Southern
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Utah St.	UCLA
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	UAB	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Memphis
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Northwestern
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	South Florida
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	Minnesota
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Hawaii
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Miami (Fla.)	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Army	Washington
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	TCU
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Stanford	Wisconsin
Music City	SEC	ACC	Indiana	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Syracuse	Tennessee
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Kentucky
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	Fresno St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Texas A&M	Nebraska
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Auburn	Penn St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	SMU	North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	South Carolina	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Air Force
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Purdue	Boise St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Georgia
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Michigan
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 28, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Gonzaga	123.1	0.0	Florida St.	115.7	7.4
Tennessee	117.8	0.0	Purdue	117.6	0.2
Michigan	119.1	0.0	Texas Tech	118.4	0.7
Virginia	120.6	0.0	Oregon	111.2	9.4

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team	Team	TIME (EDT)	TV	LOCATION
Florida St.	Gonzaga	7:09 PM	CBS	Anaheim
Purdue	Tennessee	7:29 PM	TBS	Louisville
Texas Tech	Michigan	9:39 PM	CBS	Anaheim
Oregon	Virginia	9:59 PM	TBS	Louisville

 

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Sweet 16

What a Sweet 16 we have!  My experience in watching the NCAA Tournament goes back to the 1964 season as UCLA went 30-0 using a small lineup with no starter over 6 foot 5.  The 16-0 run in 2 1/2 minutes made me a Bruin fan on the spot, especially because one of the catalysts was small,left-handed guard Gail Goodrich; I was also a small, left-handed guard.

On the whole, my memory now includes 56 different NCAA Tournaments.  I had a difficult time finding a Sweet 16 as strong as this one.  I had to go back to the 1970 season to find the equivalent in power teams still in the Dance.  Of course, in 1970,  there were just 25 teams invited to the Tournament, so 18 teams competed in the opening round, while another seven received express bids to the Sweet 16.

Among that talented group of 1970 teams, there were:

1. UCLA was not supposed to win the 1970 tournament, as Kareem Abdul Jabbar and his fantastic class of 1969 graduated.  Sidney Wicks, Curtis Rowe, and Henry Bibby gave John Wooden an incredibly talented trio to build around as he went back to his high post offense.

2. Jacksonville had Artis Gilmore and Rex Morgan as an incredible inside-outside attack.  The Dolphins averaged close to 100 points per game and had a second starter in their lineup, Pembroke Burrows, who was over 7 feet tall.

3. St. Bonaventure had the best player in college basketball not named Maravich in Bob Lanier.  Lanier led the Bonnies to the top of the Eastern Elite, and SBU made it to the Final Four.  However, Lanier was injured in the East Regional Final and SBU had no chance in the Final Four against Jacksonville.

4. New Mexico State was in the top 5 all year long with future NBA stars Charlie Criss and Sam Lacey as well as hot shooting Jimmy Collins.  The Aggies were picked by many as capable of beating UCLA in the national semifinals.  Wicks and Rowe put NMSU out of their misery early in the second half.

5. Kentucky might have had the best team in the nation in 1970 had star guard Mike Casey not have suffered season-ending injuries in a car wreck the summer before.  With Dan Issel, Mike Pratt, Tom Parker, and Larry Steele, the Wildcats might have gone 30-0 had Casey not hurt his leg.

6. Niagara had the incomparable 5 foot 9 inch Calvin Murphy who was the total package on the hardwoods.  Murphy averaged well over 30 ppg for his career with the Purple Eagles and enjoyed a lengthy pro career.  He once scored 68 points against Syracuse.  He was a lot more than a scorer.  His defensive pressure broke down opposing teams.  He could drive quickly through defenses and pass to open teammates under the basket, and he was the best baton twirler in the college ranks.

7. Villanova had two future NBA All-Stars in Howard Porter and Chris Ford, as well as Fran O’Hanlon, who played in the ABA.  It was Ford that tripped Lanier in the Eastern Regional Championship Game that doomed St. Bonaventure.

8. Notre Dame had the best offensive player in the tournament in Austin Carr.  Carr was unstoppable on offense with the way officials called fouls in 1970.  He averaged over 38 points per game, but he made history in this tournament by scoring 61 points in the opening round win over Ohio U.  He hit for more than 50 in the Sweet 16 against Kentucky.

9. Iowa set the Big Ten record for points per game in 1970, almost averaging 100 points per night.  Among their stars was Downtown Freddie Brown, who would become one of the best 6th men in NBA history.  Before he became known as “Instant Offense” off the Seattle Supersonics’ bench, he was a dynamic starter for the Hawkeyes along with John Johnson, who averaged close to 30 ppg.

14 of the 16 teams in that tournament were what I consider strong teams according to today’s statistical standards, and 14 of this year’s 16 remaining teams fit that same description.

It’s no coincidence that of the 16 teams left, the Bracketnomics correctly picked 14 of the 16.

NOTE: The data that follows may be a little different than the original Bracketnomics’ posting at the beginning of the tournament.  Stats have been altered, especially the Strengths of Schedule (SOS) for some of the teams.

If you get to re-select your brackets at this point, ignore the original predictions and use these updated stats.  The originals predictions are still our “official bracket-picks,” but in this round, there is new and improved analytics.

NOTE 2: Do not confuse the Bracketnomics’ selections with the PiRate Ratings, which may contradict these picks in a couple of games.  The PiRate Ratings are strictly mechanical with no objective reasoning applied.  Bracketnomics are more subjective based on back-tested data usable only in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Gonzaga	56.14	17.6	31.1	73.2	12.8	16.5	15.1
Florida St.	59.85	3.7	33.0	73.5	16.2	18.0	9.1

After two rounds in this tournament, Gonzaga still owns the best criteria in the field, and nothing has changed in our beliefs that they have the best chance to run the table.  The Bulldogs only potential weakness is schedule strength, but at 56%+, it is more than adequate for a national champion.  The True Shooting % Margin combined with the R+T make The Zags the much better team here.  Florida State relies on offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers, but Gonzaga is not the team that the Seminoles can exploit enough times to come up with the win.  Gonzaga gets revenge for last year’s Sweet 16.

Prediction:  Gonzaga by 10-15 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Tennessee	59.50	5.3	31.1	70.5	13.9	15.8	5.5
Purdue	60.82	3.5	34.3	74.0	13.6	16.9	11.6

Purdue hasn’t been in the Elite 8 since 2000, and they have not made it to the Final Four since 1980.  The Boilermakers have historically been unable to get scoring spurts in the Gene Keady-Matt Painter years.  They played excellent half-court offense and defense defense, but their style did not allow them to be overpowering on the boards or to gamble for steals on defense.  Like Money Ball does not work in the Major League Playoffs, possession basketball doesn’t work well in the Big Dance.  Teams need to have that spurtability, which is what the R+T rating shows, and Purdue has rarely had a great R+T rating.  That was the past; this Boilermaker squad has a very good R+T rating, and it comes from both an excellent rebounding strength combined with an adequate ability to force turnovers and not cough the ball up enough times to matter.

Tennessee is more like the old Purdue teams.  The Volunteers have excellent half-court presence on both sides of the ball, but they cannot dominate on the glass, and they do not force enough turnovers.  In this game, I look for Purdue to get numerous second chance scoring opportunities, and eventually, the Boilermakers will go for the kill shot with a scoring run that gives them the victory.

Prediction: Purdue by 6 to 11 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan	59.87	8.8	24.0	75.6	12.1	15.9	4.0
Texas Tech	58.42	10.1	28.1	71.7	16.1	20.0	4.4

 

This has the chance to be a classic game that will generate headlines for a long time.  This is the closest thing to a 50-50 tossup there can be.  If you had to choose one game to go to triple overtime, this is the one I’d pick (I just gave it the kiss of death and it will be a blowout now).

With Michigan’s 1 1/2 point SOS advantage, it basically makes all the criteria dead even.  Two teams with excellent defensive efficiency should lead to the game being decided on rebounding and turnovers.  The Red Raiders are better on the offensive glass, but the Wolverines are better on the defensive glass.  Texas Tech is considerably better forcing turnovers, but Michigan is considerably better holding onto the ball.  The R+T is dead even.  The only tiny little stat where there is a difference is TS% Margin, where even with the better SOS, Michigan comes up just a tad short, but not enough to matter more than one point on the scoreboard.

I have to go to extracurricular statistics here to select a winner in this game.  Texas Tech has been more consistent with their production, while Michigan’s standard deviation of statistics has been greater.  The Wolverines have been up for five consecutive games, while Texas Tech has been on an even keel since January.  Michigan has experience from making it to the Championship Game last year, while Texas Tech made it to the Elite 8 last year, so once again this washes.  Michigan is 7-3 against ranked teams this year.  TTU is 3-2.  Maybe, this is the only stat I can use to pick a winner, and it is still a total guess.  I’ll have my eyes glued to this game.

Prediction: Michigan by 1 to 5 points, possibly in overtime

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Virginia	59.95	12.9	29.9	74.8	13.0	15.7	10.4
Oregon	55.83	4.5	29.4	71.7	15.4	18.3	4.3

Oregon coach Dana Altman deserves a ton of credit.  If you don’t think losing a 5-star McDonald’s All-American freshman phenom when you have another one on the roster  hurts, look at what happened to Bryce Drew at Vanderbilt.  Drew lost Darius Garland early in the year but still had another 5-star freshman phenom in Simi Shittu.  Vanderbilt lost their final 20 games in a row, and Drew was dismissed.  Altman lost superstar Bol Bol early in the year, and the Ducks were counted out.  Altman rallied Oregon and won the Pac-12 Tournament.  Then, they knocked out mid-major darling UC-Irvine to make it back to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years.

Virginia survived a scare against Gardner-Webb, but the Cavaliers righted the ship and stormed back to win by 15, and then the Cavs ousted Oklahoma much more easily in the Round of 32.  On the surface, some may believe that UVA is strictly a half-court possession wonder, the type that usually disappoints in the Big Dance.  This is not so.  The Cavaliers have a double-digit R+T rating, which makes them capable of benefiting from scoring spurts, like they did in 2016, when they made it to the Elite 8 and watched a second half double-digit lead against Syracuse turn into a loss when the Orangemen went on a huge scoring run.

This game looks like the most lopsided in this round.  Virginia has the advantage across the board, and Oregon has not beaten a team this good all year.  The Ducks only played one ranked team in the regular season.  Think of Bol Bol as twice the player Tacko Fall is for Central Florida.  That’s why  Oregon should be happy they made the Sweet 16.

Prediction: Virginia by 12-17 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan St.	61.11	14.0	33.8	74.1	16.4	12.7	12.3
LSU	58.71	3.4	36.5	69.8	15.2	17.6	9.4

The fact that four SEC teams made the Sweet 16, and LSU won the conference championship shows that the Tigers are good enough to keep playing into April, even with acting coach Tony Benford taking over for Will Wade.

On the other side, Michigan State is almost perfect when you look at the resume of a Final Four team.  The Spartans do not force turnovers like most Final Four teams in the past, and they are vulnerable to a team that can pressure them into turnovers.

LSU has the personnel to force MSU out of their normal offense and negate any potential rebounding advantage Sparty has.  This game still looks favorable to Michigan State due to a great difference in True Shooting Percentage Margin.  LSU might not get enough open looks and second chance points to match the inside scoring of Nick Ward and Xavier Tillman combined with the three-point shooting of Cassius Winston.

Prediction: Michigan State by 4 to 9 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
North Carolina	62.05	5.4	34.8	77.7	14.6	16.5	18.9
Auburn	59.91	1.9	32.2	67.8	14.6	21.8	2.7

 

This game should be played at a tempo of 75 possessions per team.  Auburn was the best up-tempo team in the SEC this year, but North Carolina was the best up-tempo team in the ACC.

Can Auburn force North Carolina, namely point guard Coby White to make enough mistakes to keep this game close?  White has been prone to force the issue a bit at times, but in the games against the best pressure man-to-man teams, he did not make enough mistakes to cost Carolina the win, and in several games, his deft handling of the ball was the reason the Tar Heels won.

North Carolina remains the second best team in the tournament according to Bracketnomics, and this game has the potential to get out of hand.  The Tar Heels have a huge advantage on the offensive glass, and this should be the deciding factor.  UNC will score on several consecutive possessions at some point in this game and take a commanding lead that forces Auburn to panic on offense and commit some mistakes of their own.

Prediction: North Carolina by 10-15 points

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Duke	62.61	9.8	35.5	71.0	14.7	17.0	12.1
Virginia Tech	58.20	8.5	29.0	72.9	15.3	19.1	6.1

 

Virginia Tech’s home court advantage in a game with Duke was three points and change, but let’s round it back to 3.  They beat Duke in Blacksburg by five points.  Duke didn’t have Zion Williamson.  Is Zion worth three points more for Duke than his backup?  Of course, he is; he’s worth a lot more than three extra points in Duke’s overall production.

Duke has an exploitable liability, and Central Florida exposed it.  Buzz Williams will do everything to try to force the Blue Devils to beat his squad by not being weak in their perimeter shooting.  UCF had two big guys inside that could force Duke to shoot from the perimeter.  Virginia Tech has one big guy, Kerry Blackshear, who probably cannot stop the Duke inside game.

In my opinion, there are a couple teams that can force Duke to have a better than average perimeter shooting night to beat them, but Virginia Tech is not one of them.

Prediction: Duke by 8 to 13 points

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kentucky	60.44	9.8	36.6	74.7	15.8	16.0	16.2
Houston	55.45	8.3	34.2	74.8	14.0	15.8	14.6

This game could be very interesting in a different way than the Michigan and Texas Tech game.  You get contrasting styles in this contest, and there are many variables, some of which favor the underdog Cougars in this cat fight.

There is a giant variable here, one that is enough to take this game from a relatively safe victory for Kentucky to a toss-up.  Star forward P.J. Washington might play in this game, and he might not be healthy enough.  Even if he plays, he cannot possibly be all that effective.  What bothers me is that he went from a protective boot to a cast, which means the injury was worse than first thought.  He’s going to one of the top foot specialists in the nation, and I think the goal here is to make sure Washington is ready for the NBA Draft.

If Washington does not play in this game, it becomes one where Houston has a 40-45% chance of winning.  If Washington plays sparingly, Kentucky’s chances increase by another 5-10%.  If miraculously Washington can play near full strength for 25 minutes, then the Big Blue win this game going away.

I will select this game based on the assumption that Washington will play but at much less than full strength.  Reid Travis is ready to have a big game for Kentucky now that he is basically 100% at full strength following his injury, and I look for John Calipari to direct his team to play intelligently and take advantage of their muscle advantage.

Prediction: Kentucky but 5-10 points

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Saturday, March 23, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
LSU	114.6	0.0	Maryland	113.0	1.6
Kentucky	118.5	0.0	Wofford	113.9	4.6
Michigan	119.0	0.0	Florida	111.9	7.1
Florida St.	115.2	0.0	Murray St.	110.4	4.8
Gonzaga	123.1	0.0	Baylor	110.5	12.6
Michigan St.	120.9	0.0	Minnesota	110.2	10.7
Purdue	117.1	0.0	Villanova	111.8	5.3
Kansas	115.3	0.0	Auburn	115.7	-0.4

Saturday’s Schedule

TIME (ET)	GAME	TV	SITE
12:10 p.m.	(6) Maryland vs. (3) LSU	CBS	Jacksonville
Approx. 2:55 p.m.	(7) Wofford vs. (2) Kentucky	CBS	Jacksonville
5:15 p.m.	(10) Florida vs. (2) Michigan	CBS	Des Moines
6:10 p.m.	(12) Murray St. vs. (4) Florida St.	TNT	Hartford
7:10 p.m.	(9) Baylor vs. (1) Gonzaga	TBS	Salt Lake City
Approx. 8:00 p.m.	(10) Minnesota vs. (2) Michigan St.	CBS	Des Moines
Approx 8:55 p.m.	(6) Villanova vs. (3) Pudue	TNT	Hartford
Approx 9:55 p.m.	(5) Auburn vs. (4) Kansas	TBS	Salt Lake City

 

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Round of 32 for Saturday, March 23, 2019

Saturday, March 23, 2019  

Round of 32

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
LSU	58.68	3.4	36.9	70.0	15.3	17.7	10.2
Maryland	59.94	7.1	33.9	75.3	16.6	12.3	8.6

Maryland’s strength of schedule advantage is negligible.  LSU’s R+T advantage is also negligible.  Rebounding should be close to even, and it doesn’t appear like turnovers will decide this game.

It comes down to true shooting % margin, and Maryland’s is better by enough to move the needle into Terp territory.

Predicted Winner: Maryland but a close game

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kentucky	60.47	9.9	36.9	74.7	15.9	16.1	16.3
Wofford	52.40	8.2	32.8	76.3	13.6	18.1	13.5

Wofford looked great in the closing minutes of their blowout win over Seton Hall, just like they did when they closed out the SoCon Championship Game against UNC-Greensboro.  This will not repeat itself Saturday.  Kentucky might give the Terriers a dose of their own medicine, but it will more than likely come in the first half.  The Wildcats are too much out of Wofford’s class, and the SOS difference makes UK’s analytics much superior to Wofford’s.

Even with P. J. Washington still unavailable until next week at the earliest, Kentucky has too much muscle and quickness for the Terriers.  Wofford’s excellent inside-outside combination won’t be able to connect enough times.

Predicted Winner: Kentucky by double digits

 

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan	60.07	8.8	23.8	75.2	12.1	16.0	3.4
Florida	60.24	1.4	31.1	67.9	15.5	19.3	-1.0

Florida became one of the few teams with a negative R+T rating to advance to the Round of 32, and their R+T is still negative.  Michigan’s R+T is definitely a liability also, but at least it is positive.  The Wolverines has a far superior true shooting % margin, most of which is due to their top-rate defense, led by “defensive coordinator” Luke Yaklich.

Predicted Winner: Michigan by 5 to 12 points

 

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Florida St.	59.75	3.4	32.8	73.5	16.3	18.1	8.7
Murray St.	48.31	11.2	31.6	70.7	14.7	17.0	7.2

 

The popular pick is Ja Morant and the Racers, but the ACC was really tough at the top, and this data shows the Seminoles’ SOS looks insurmountable in this game.  The ‘Noles have a lot more muscle than Marquette, and they will be able to wear down Murray and control the boards while forcing the Racers into more second half mistakes.

Predicted Winner: Florida St. by 7 to 15

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Gonzaga	55.92	17.7	30.9	73.1	12.8	16.6	15.0
Baylor	58.64	1.5	37.8	71.4	16.6	16.2	9.0

Baylor’s SOS is a little better than Gonzaga, and the Bears should be able to get a couple extras offensive rebounds, but Gonzaga is too much better everywhere else.  A lot of people are picking the Bears to be the first team to send a #1-seed home, but in my opinion, Gonzaga has the best path to the Final Four of any #1-seed.

Predicted Winner: Gonzaga by double digits

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan St.	61.31	13.6	33.6	73.8	16.0	12.8	11.9
Minnesota	59.70	2.0	31.5	72.4	14.8	14.3	1.1

Never before have conference rivals met in the Round of 32, and this does alter our data a little bit, but not much.  In their previous meeting, Michigan State thoroughly destroyed Minnesota in a game in East Lansing.  The analytical data in that game was not that much off the norm, as Michigan State was expected to dominate the offensive glass and get better percentage shots.

The data has not changed much from that home game for Sparty.  It will be closer this time, but the outcome should still be the same.  MSU has huge R+T and True Shooting % Margin advantages here.  Minny might not be able to beat the Spartans more than one time in 10 games on a neutral floor.

Predicted Winner: Michigan St. by 10-15 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Purdue	60.86	2.9	34.2	73.8	13.5	17.0	11.1
Villanova	58.03	5.1	30.5	72.9	14.2	15.3	3.2

 

The defending national champions may not make it to the Sweet 16.  Purdue isn’t that much slower than the Wildcats and much stronger.  The Boilermakers’ will eventually lose to a team with a superior TS Margin and enough muscle to make the board battle even, but I don’t think the Wildcats have the juice this year to be that team.

Predicted Winner: Purdue by 4 to 9 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kansas	62.70	6.1	29.7	72.0	16.0	15.6	2.7
Auburn	59.91	1.7	32.5	67.9	14.7	21.9	6.8

 

This will be an interesting game, and it should be a nail-biter unless one team just doesn’t have it and lays an egg.  I believe that if these teams play 10 times, it would be 5 to 5 in wins.  Kansas has the better TS% Margin, but not by that much.   The difference in this game is that Auburn can force turnovers, and Kansas is turnover-prone.  That’s where I give the Tigers an ever so slight advantage overall.

Predicted Winner: Auburn by 6 or less

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 21, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Louisville	114.1	0.0	Minnesota	109.7	4.4
LSU	114.6	0.0	Yale	106.1	8.5
Auburn	115.7	0.0	New Mexico St.	108.9	6.8
Vermont	105.7	1.0	Florida St.	115.4	-8.7
Michigan St.	121.1	0.0	Bradley	99.8	21.3
Maryland	113.1	0.0	Belmont	109.5	3.6
Kansas	114.5	0.0	Northeastern	105.8	8.7
Marquette	112.6	0.0	Murray St.	109.2	3.4
Nevada	113.1	0.0	Florida	111.5	1.6
Kentucky	118.0	0.0	Abilene Christian	101.4	16.6
Villanova	111.9	1.0	Saint Mary’s	111.1	1.8
Gonzaga	122.9	0.0	Fairleigh-Dickinson	97.3	25.6
Michigan	119.0	0.0	Montana	102.4	16.6
Wofford	113.6	0.0	Seton Hall	108.9	4.7
Purdue	117.1	0.0	Old Dominion	103.6	13.5
Syracuse	110.8	0.0	Baylor	110.0	0.8

Schedule for Thursday

Time	Game	TV	Location
12:15 p.m.	(10) Minnesota vs. (7) Louisville	CBS	Des Moines
12:40 p.m.	(14) Yale vs. (3) LSU	truTV	Jacksonville
1:30 p.m.	(12) New Mexico St. vs. (5) Auburn	TNT	Salt Lake City
2 p.m.	(13) Vermont vs. (4) Florida St.	TBS	Hartford
Approx. 2:30 PM	(15) Bradley vs. (2) Michigan St.	CBS	Des Moines
Approx. 2:55 PM	(11) Belmont vs. (6) Maryland	truTV	Jacksonville
Approx. 3:45 PM	(13) Northeastern vs. (4) Kansas	TNT	Salt Lake City
Approx. 4:15 PM	(12) Murray St. vs. (5) Marquette	TBS	Hartford
6:50 p.m.	(10) Florida vs. (7) Nevada	TNT	Des Moines
7:10 p.m.	(15) Abilene Christian vs. (2) Kentucky	CBS	Jacksonville
7:20 p.m.	(11) Saint Mary’s vs. (6) Villanova	TBS	Hartford
7:27 p.m.	(16) Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. (1) Gonzaga	truTV	Salt Lake City
Approx. 9:20 PM	(15) Montana vs. (2) Michigan	TNT	Des Moines
Approx. 9:40 PM	(10) Seton Hall vs. (7) Wofford	CBS	Jacksonville
Approx. 9:50 PM	(14) Old Dominion vs. (3) Purdue	TBS	Hartford
Approx. 9:57 PM	(9) Baylor vs. (8) Syracuse	truTV	Salt Lake City

Happy Spring!

 

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology For 2019

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Duke	Virginia	Gonzaga	North Carolina
2	Michigan St.	Tennessee	Michigan	Kentucky
3	Houston	Florida St.	Texas Tech	LSU
4	Purdue	Kansas St.	Wisconsin	Kansas
5	Auburn	Villanova	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
6	Buffalo	Mississippi St.	Cincinnati	Marquette
7	Wofford	Maryland	Louisville	Nevada
8	Iowa	Seton Hall	Minnesota	Central Florida
9	Ole Miss	Syracuse	Baylor	Washington
10	Virginia Commonwealth	Utah St.	Florida	Oklahoma
11	Oregon	Ohio St.	Temple/Arizona St.	St. John’s/TCU
12	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.	Vermont
13	Liberty	UC-Irvine	Old Dominion	Montana
14	Saint Louis	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Colgate	Abilene Christian
16	Gardner-Webb	Prairie View A&M	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	N. Dakota St./UNC Central

 

Last Four Byes

Virginia Commonwealth

Florida

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

 

Last Four In

Temple

St. John’s

TCU

Arizona St.

 

First Four Out

North Carolina St.

Belmont

UNC Greensboro

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Indiana

Alabama

Clemson

Texas

 

Bids By Conference

Conference	Bids
Big Ten	8
ACC	7
SEC	7
Big 12	7
Big East	4
AAC	4
Pac-12	3
MWC	2
West Coast	2
Atlantic 10	2
One-Bid Leagues	22

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 17, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Houston	114.9	0.0	Cincinnati	111.1	3.8
Saint Louis	102.6	0.0	St. Bonaventure	102.2	0.4
Michigan St.	120.9	0.0	Michigan	118.5	2.4
Yale	106.0	2.5	Harvard	103.0	5.5
Tennessee	119.0	1.0	Auburn	115.8	4.2
Georgia St.	103.2	0.0	UT-Arlington	99.3	3.9

Late Saturday Night Bracketology Update

Includes Oregon’s Championship Win in the Pac-12

March 17, 2019 (AM Edition)
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Duke	Virginia	Gonzaga	North Carolina
2	Michigan St.	Tennessee	Michigan	Kentucky
3	Houston	Purdue	Texas Tech	LSU
4	Florida St.	Kansas St.	Wisconsin	Kansas
5	Auburn	Villanova	Virginia Tech	Mississippi St.
6	Buffalo	Marquette	Cincinnati	Iowa St.
7	Wofford	Maryland	Louisville	Nevada
8	Iowa	Seton Hall	Minnesota	Washington
9	Ole Miss	Syracuse	Baylor	Central Florida
10	Virginia Commonwealth	Utah St.	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
11	Oregon	TCU	Temple/North Carolina St.	St. John’s/Florida
12	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.	Vermont
13	Liberty	UC-Irvine	Old Dominion	Montana
14	St. Louis	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Colgate	Abilene Christian
16	Gardner-Webb	Prairie View A&M	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	N. Dakota St./UNC Central

 

Last 4 Bye	Virginina Commonwealth	Ohio St.	Oklahoma	TCU
Last 4 In	Temple	Florida	St. John’s	North Carolina St.

 

First 4 Out	Arizona St.	Belmont	UNC Greensboro	Furman
Next 4 Out	Indiana	Alabama	Clemson	Texas

 

The Bracket Gurus Take Over The Bracketology Seeding Sunday

Next Bracketology Update–Sunday Early Afternoon

Final Bracketology Update–Once Big Ten Championship Game Winner is Known