PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 21-23, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Florida	Temple	18.3	15.9	19.4
Boise St.	Virginia	5.1	3.0	3.2
Arizona	Utah	-3.6	-6.7	-5.6
Appalachian St.	Wake Forest	-6.1	-7.6	-5.5
North Carolina	Duke	2.7	2.8	2.6
Purdue	Michigan	-11.7	-9.6	-10.2
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	10.8	8.0	9.5
Iowa	Penn St.	-14.3	-12.2	-15.6
Clemson	Boston College	36.5	31.9	36.8
Florida St.	North Carolina St.	16.5	14.8	16.1
Georgia	Mississippi St.	7.7	8.2	7.3
South Carolina	Louisiana Tech	22.1	20.1	20.2
Tennessee	Massachusetts	31.5	30.3	29.8
Kansas	West Virginia	-18.4	-15.9	-19.0
Kentucky	Florida	0.5	-0.1	1.0
Maryland	Central Florida	5.9	6.0	5.1
Louisville	Kent St.	37.5	34.8	36.7
Eastern Michigan	Ohio U	6.9	4.7	6.0
Central Michigan	Miami (O)	1.3	-0.8	-0.4
Virginia Tech	Old Dominion	31.1	27.6	31.1
Charlotte	Georgia St.	-6.7	-3.4	-6.1
Indiana	Georgia Southern	28.1	26.8	28.9
Buffalo	Florida Atlantic	2.1	1.5	3.0
Nebraska	Rutgers	6.9	8.6	6.4
Miami (Fla.)	Toledo	22.0	19.7	19.5
Colorado	Washington	-12.3	-10.9	-15.2
New Mexico St.	UTEP	18.0	11.4	16.8
Navy	Cincinnati	11.2	9.9	9.4
Ohio St.	UNLV	44.7	39.0	43.5
Michigan St.	Notre Dame	-11.7	-6.4	-11.1
Wyoming	Hawaii	11.2	7.5	9.8
Tulsa	New Mexico	14.0	13.2	13.6
LSU	Syracuse	11.2	11.2	12.7
Troy	Akron	14.1	10.5	13.6
Middle Tennessee	Bowling Green	14.3	14.4	14.0
Missouri	Auburn	-21.3	-21.8	-22.2
Houston	Texas Tech	4.6	3.7	5.6
SMU	Arkansas St.	10.8	9.4	9.4
Vanderbilt	Alabama	-18.3	-15.4	-17.8
Tulane	Army	0.7	1.5	0.1
Oklahoma St.	TCU	14.2	15.1	15.7
Western Kentucky	Ball St.	17.8	14.3	17.4
North Texas	UAB	20.3	17.0	18.3
Texas St.	UTSA	-19.2	-18.0	-22.4
Air Force	San Diego St.	-6.3	-6.0	-7.2
Texas A&M	Arkansas	1.1	-0.5	-0.1
Rice	Florida Int’l.	0.1	0.9	-0.7
South Alabama	Idaho	4.9	5.6	4.1
UL-Lafayette	UL-Monroe	5.4	6.3	6.7
Baylor	Oklahoma	-25.9	-21.3	-27.2
California	USC	-16.4	-18.4	-18.2
Washington St.	Nevada	36.0	30.2	33.2
Arizona St.	Oregon	-11.0	-7.1	-11.2
Stanford	UCLA	9.8	9.2	9.3
San Jose St.	Utah St.	0.3	0.8	0.5
Connecticut	East Carolina	6.6	7.9	7.5

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Coastal Carolina	Western Illinois	5
Western Michigan	Wagner	40
Memphis	Southern Illinois	26

Same Two Again?
With Clemson’s dominating win at Louisville, our ratings now show the top two teams from last year resuming the top two spots again this season. For now, Alabama stays ahead of Clemson in our ratings, but internally, our Retrodictive Ratings show that Clemson is less than .2 point behind the Tide and just .5 point behind ‘Bama in the Predictive Ratings.

Who at this point looks like the best contenders for the other two Playoff spots? Oklahoma figures in as a high contender, but then so does Oklahoma State. If either runs the table, they are in. Out west, Washington and USC hold the top two spots, but Washington State, Utah, and Colorado are still in contention, as is a Dark Horse Cal Bears team.

In the Big Ten, Penn State has the look of a team that can go into the Horseshoe and do the same thing to Ohio State that Oklahoma did. Michigan is chugging along but looks to be missing something and probably cannot run the table. Ohio State is still in the Big Ten race, but to make the Playoffs now, the Buckeyes must start winning consistently and take out all Big Ten foes. In the West, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota are in contention but any of these teams will have to run the table to make it to the Final Four.

Aside from the Crimson Tide, Georgia and Mississippi State have chances to earn a playoff spot. The two Bulldogs face off in what has become a very important contest on Saturday.

Top Group of 5 Teams
Two teams appear to be at the top of the list for the Group of 5 Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid, but there are plenty of contenders, and it is much too early to call any one team convincingly ahead of the rest.

South Florida has had a little difficulty early in their games, but once the Bulls get on track, they play competently enough to run the table and earn that NY6 Bowl. San Diego State actually has a bigger win, having just knocked off Stanford, but the Aztecs still have a difficult couple of games to take the bid. Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Toledo, and Navy are the top contenders for now.

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

(like a poll based on what they have done to date)

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Clemson
3	Washington
4	Oklahoma
5	USC
6	Penn St.
7	LSU
8	Ohio St.
9	Oklahoma St.
10	Wisconsin
11	Michigan
12	Miami (Fla)
13	Georgia
14	Louisville
15	Florida St.
16	Virginia Tech
17	Mississippi St.
18	TCU
19	Auburn
20	Stanford
21	Utah
22	Washington St.
23	Iowa
24	Florida
25	Colorado
26	Kansas St.
27	Tennessee
28	Minnesota
29	Houston
30	San Diego St.
31	South Florida
32	Georgia Tech
33	Wake Forest
34	Oregon
35	Notre Dame
36	Vanderbilt
37	West Virginia
38	Boise St.
39	Toledo
40	Duke
41	Kentucky
42	Michigan St.
43	South Carolina
44	UCLA
45	Maryland
46	California
47	Texas A&M
48	North Carolina St.
49	Memphis
50	Northwestern
51	Navy
52	Texas
53	Western Michigan
54	Texas Tech
55	Tulsa
56	Arkansas
57	North Carolina
58	Air Force
59	Ole Miss
60	Pittsburgh
61	Nebraska
62	Colorado St.
63	Appalachian St.
64	Central Florida
65	Temple
66	Purdue
67	UTSA
68	Iowa St.
69	Indiana
70	Arizona
71	Northern Illinois
72	Army
73	Troy
74	Louisiana Tech
75	Arkansas St.
76	Western Kentucky
77	SMU
78	BYU
79	Eastern Michigan
80	Syracuse
81	Southern Miss.
82	Boston College
83	Old Dominion
84	Illinois
85	Tulane
86	Cincinnati
87	Virginia
88	Ohio
89	Middle Tennessee
90	Arizona St.
91	Wyoming
92	New Mexico
93	Baylor
94	Central Michigan
95	Marshall
96	Missouri
97	Oregon St.
98	Rutgers
99	Miami (O)
100	Hawaii
101	Ball St.
102	Idaho
103	UL-Lafayette
104	Coastal Carolina
105	Utah St.
106	New Mexico St.
107	Akron
108	South Alabama
109	North Texas
110	Fresno St.
111	Buffalo
112	Connecticut
113	Nevada
114	UAB
115	Georgia Southern
116	UL-Monroe
117	San Jose St.
118	Kansas
119	Rice
120	UNLV
121	East Carolina
122	Kent St.
123	Florida Atlantic
124	Florida Int’l.
125	Bowling Green
126	Georgia St.
127	UTEP
128	Texas St.
129	Massachusetts
130	Charlotte

PiRate Predictive Ratings

(tries to predict the outcome of the next game on each team’s schedule)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	132.2	127.6	131.0	130.3
2	Clemson	131.2	127.6	130.7	129.8
3	Ohio St.	129.2	126.5	128.5	128.1
4	Oklahoma	128.1	125.9	129.1	127.7
5	Washington	128.4	125.0	129.1	127.5
6	Penn St.	127.7	125.5	128.5	127.2
7	Oklahoma St.	126.1	124.4	127.6	126.0
8	Florida St.	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
9	Auburn	122.7	120.6	122.5	121.9
10	Wisconsin	122.8	118.6	121.0	120.8
11	U S C	120.8	120.3	120.9	120.7
12	Virginia Tech	118.3	117.5	118.9	118.2
13	Miami	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
14	Georgia	116.7	117.9	116.8	117.1
15	Stanford	116.6	115.2	115.8	115.9
16	Washington St.	117.0	114.3	116.1	115.8
17	Michigan	116.2	115.8	115.4	115.8
18	Louisville	116.0	114.7	116.0	115.6
19	L S U	115.5	113.7	116.2	115.1
20	Florida	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
21	Kansas St.	114.1	113.8	114.3	114.1
22	T C U	114.9	112.3	114.9	114.0
23	Texas	113.2	114.0	113.4	113.6
24	N. Carolina St.	113.4	113.1	113.1	113.2
25	Oregon	114.3	110.8	113.6	112.9
26	Notre Dame	113.3	111.5	113.6	112.8
27	Mississippi St.	112.1	112.7	112.5	112.4
28	Kentucky	113.0	111.5	112.7	112.4
29	Colorado	113.1	111.1	110.9	111.7
30	Georgia Tech	113.1	110.6	111.1	111.6
31	Tennessee	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
32	Iowa	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2
33	Vanderbilt	110.9	109.2	110.2	110.1
34	N. Carolina	110.8	109.7	109.3	109.9
35	South Florida	109.9	108.2	110.9	109.7
36	Northwestern	110.2	108.4	110.3	109.6
37	U C L A	109.8	109.0	109.5	109.4
38	West Virginia	109.1	109.9	109.1	109.4
39	Minnesota	109.5	109.3	109.3	109.4
40	Duke	109.6	108.4	108.2	108.7
41	Utah	106.6	108.7	107.0	107.4
42	S. Carolina	107.6	106.8	106.6	107.0
43	Arkansas	106.7	106.2	106.5	106.5
44	Syracuse	107.2	105.6	106.5	106.4
45	Maryland	105.6	107.7	105.7	106.3
46	Wake Forest	106.7	105.8	106.3	106.2
47	Indiana	105.0	105.1	105.4	105.2
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	105.6	104.6	105.2
49	Memphis	105.3	104.1	105.5	104.9
50	Ole Miss	105.9	104.4	104.1	104.8
51	Houston	105.0	103.9	104.9	104.6
52	Colo. State	105.0	103.4	105.1	104.5
53	Texas A&M	104.8	102.7	103.4	103.6
54	Iowa State	102.9	104.1	103.8	103.6
55	Central Florida	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
56	San Diego St.	103.1	103.0	104.2	103.4
57	Texas Tech	102.9	102.7	101.8	102.5
58	Tulsa	102.6	102.0	102.7	102.4
59	Purdue	101.5	103.2	102.2	102.3
60	Nebraska	100.6	102.3	99.6	100.8
61	Virginia	100.2	100.3	101.6	100.7
62	Boise St.	101.4	99.3	100.8	100.5
63	Arizona St.	100.4	100.7	99.4	100.2
64	Toledo	99.6	99.6	101.3	100.2
65	Michigan St.	98.6	102.0	99.5	100.0
66	California	101.4	98.9	99.6	100.0
67	Baylor	99.2	101.6	98.9	99.9
68	Navy	99.0	100.0	98.9	99.3
69	Arizona	100.0	99.0	98.4	99.1
70	Western Michigan	99.2	97.4	100.5	99.0
71	BYU	98.9	98.1	99.4	98.8
72	Boston College	97.7	98.7	96.9	97.8
73	Appalachian St.	98.0	95.7	98.3	97.3
74	SMU	97.1	97.3	97.4	97.3
75	Missouri	98.4	95.9	97.2	97.2
76	Army	96.5	96.0	97.4	96.6
77	Rutgers	96.7	96.7	96.2	96.5
78	U T S A	94.4	96.1	96.6	95.7
79	Temple	94.6	95.3	94.5	94.8
80	Wyoming	95.8	93.7	94.4	94.6
81	Eastern Michigan	94.6	94.2	94.5	94.4
82	Tulane	94.2	94.5	94.5	94.4
83	W. Kentucky	94.1	93.0	95.3	94.1
84	Air Force	93.7	94.1	94.0	93.9
85	Miami (O)	92.1	94.6	94.0	93.6
86	Troy	93.7	93.8	92.9	93.5
87	Middle Tennessee	92.2	92.7	92.7	92.5
88	Cincinnati	90.7	93.1	92.5	92.1
89	Oregon St.	92.6	92.6	91.1	92.1
90	New Mexico	91.6	91.8	92.1	91.8
91	Illinois	91.6	92.9	90.6	91.7
92	Central Michigan	90.9	91.3	91.1	91.1
93	Ohio U	90.2	92.0	91.0	91.1
94	Arkansas St.	89.3	90.9	91.0	90.4
95	Old Dominion	89.2	91.9	89.7	90.3
96	Northern Illinois	89.4	89.3	89.8	89.5
97	Louisiana Tech	88.5	89.7	89.4	89.2
98	Hawaii	88.6	90.2	88.6	89.1
99	Kansas	87.7	91.0	87.1	88.6
100	U N L V	87.5	90.4	87.9	88.6
101	Fresno St.	88.6	87.0	88.8	88.2
102	Southern Miss.	87.7	88.9	87.7	88.1
103	Connecticut	86.4	89.5	87.0	87.6
104	Marshall	85.9	87.1	87.2	86.8
105	N. Mexico St.	87.1	84.7	86.6	86.1
106	Nevada	84.0	87.1	86.0	85.7
107	Florida Atlantic	84.1	87.4	85.2	85.6
108	S. Alabama	84.5	87.4	84.7	85.5
109	Utah St.	86.0	85.1	85.0	85.4
110	Buffalo	83.2	85.9	85.2	84.8
111	UL-Lafayette	84.2	85.5	84.0	84.6
112	Idaho	83.2	85.3	84.1	84.2
113	Akron	82.6	86.3	82.4	83.8
114	N. Texas	82.7	84.1	82.8	83.2
115	Massachusetts	83.5	82.7	83.4	83.2
116	San Jose St.	83.3	82.9	82.5	82.9
117	East Carolina	82.3	84.2	82.0	82.8
118	Georgia St.	83.0	82.2	82.8	82.7
119	Kent St.	81.5	82.9	82.3	82.2
120	Florida Int’l.	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
121	UL-Monroe	81.2	81.7	79.8	80.9
122	Bowling Green	80.4	80.9	81.1	80.8
123	Georgia Southern	79.9	81.2	79.5	80.2
124	Ball St.	78.8	81.2	80.4	80.1
125	Rice	78.8	79.8	79.0	79.2
126	Charlotte	74.3	76.9	74.7	75.3
127	Coastal Carolina	73.5	74.9	75.2	74.6
128	Texas St.	73.2	76.0	72.2	73.8
129	U T E P	71.6	75.8	72.2	73.2
130	UAB	65.4	70.1	67.5	67.7

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	0-0	3-0	109.9	108.2	110.9	109.7
Central Florida	0-0	1-0	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
Temple	0-0	2-1	94.6	95.3	94.5	94.8
Cincinnati	0-0	2-1	90.7	93.1	92.5	92.1
Connecticut	0-0	1-1	86.4	89.5	87.0	87.6
East Carolina	0-0	0-3	82.3	84.2	82.0	82.8
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	2-0	105.3	104.1	105.5	104.9
Houston	0-0	2-0	105.0	103.9	104.9	104.6
Tulsa	0-0	1-2	102.6	102.0	102.7	102.4
Navy	1-0	2-0	99.0	100.0	98.9	99.3
SMU	0-0	2-1	97.1	97.3	97.4	97.3
Tulane	0-1	1-2	94.2	94.5	94.5	94.4
AAC Averages			97.5	98.1	97.9	97.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	1-0	3-0	131.2	127.6	130.7	129.8
Florida St.	0-0	0-1	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
Louisville	1-1	2-2	116.0	114.7	116.0	115.6
N. Carolina St.	0-0	2-1	113.4	113.1	113.1	113.2
Syracuse	0-0	2-1	107.2	105.6	106.5	106.4
Wake Forest	1-0	3-0	106.7	105.8	106.3	106.2
Boston College	0-1	1-2	97.7	98.7	96.9	97.8
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	0-0	3-0	118.3	117.5	118.9	118.2
Miami	0-0	1-0	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
Georgia Tech	0-0	1-1	113.1	110.6	111.1	111.6
N. Carolina	0-1	1-2	110.8	109.7	109.3	109.9
Duke	0-0	3-0	109.6	108.4	108.2	108.7
Pittsburgh	0-0	1-2	105.3	105.6	104.6	105.2
Virginia	0-0	2-1	100.2	100.3	101.6	100.7
ACC Averages			112.5	111.3	111.9	111.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	0-0	3-0	128.1	125.9	129.1	127.7
Oklahoma St.	0-0	3-0	126.1	124.4	127.6	126.0
Kansas St.	0-0	2-1	114.1	113.8	114.3	114.1
T C U	0-0	3-0	114.9	112.3	114.9	114.0
Texas	0-0	1-2	113.2	114.0	113.4	113.6
West Virginia	0-0	2-1	109.1	109.9	109.1	109.4
Iowa State	0-0	2-1	102.9	104.1	103.8	103.6
Texas Tech	0-0	2-0	102.9	102.7	101.8	102.5
Baylor	0-0	0-3	99.2	101.6	98.9	99.9
Kansas	0-0	1-2	87.7	91.0	87.1	88.6
Big 12 Averages			109.8	110.0	110.0	109.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	1-0	2-1	129.2	126.5	128.5	128.1
Penn St.	0-0	3-0	127.7	125.5	128.5	127.2
Michigan	0-0	3-0	116.2	115.8	115.4	115.8
Maryland	0-0	2-0	105.6	107.7	105.7	106.3
Indiana	0-1	1-1	105.0	105.1	105.4	105.2
Michigan St.	0-0	2-0	98.6	102.0	99.5	100.0
Rutgers	0-0	1-2	96.7	96.7	96.2	96.5
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	3-0	122.8	118.6	121.0	120.8
Iowa	0-0	3-0	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2
Northwestern	0-0	2-1	110.2	108.4	110.3	109.6
Minnesota	0-0	3-0	109.5	109.3	109.3	109.4
Purdue	0-0	2-1	101.5	103.2	102.2	102.3
Nebraska	0-0	1-2	100.6	102.3	99.6	100.8
Illinois	0-0	2-1	91.6	92.9	90.6	91.7
Big Ten Averages			109.0	108.9	108.7	108.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	0-1	1-2	94.1	93.0	95.3	94.1
Middle Tennessee	0-0	1-2	92.2	92.7	92.7	92.5
Old Dominion	0-0	2-1	89.2	91.9	89.7	90.3
Marshall	0-0	2-1	85.9	87.1	87.2	86.8
Florida Atlantic	0-0	1-2	84.1	87.4	85.2	85.6
Florida Int’l.	0-0	1-1	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
Charlotte	0-0	0-3	74.3	76.9	74.7	75.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	0-0	2-0	94.4	96.1	96.6	95.7
Louisiana Tech	1-0	2-1	88.5	89.7	89.4	89.2
Southern Miss.	0-0	2-1	87.7	88.9	87.7	88.1
N. Texas	0-0	1-2	82.7	84.1	82.8	83.2
Rice	1-0	1-2	78.8	79.8	79.0	79.2
U T E P	0-1	0-3	71.6	75.8	72.2	73.2
UAB	0-0	2-1	65.4	70.1	67.5	67.7
CUSA Averages			83.6	85.4	84.4	84.5
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		2-1	113.3	111.5	113.6	112.8
BYU		1-3	98.9	98.1	99.4	98.8
Army		2-1	96.5	96.0	97.4	96.6
Massachusetts		0-4	83.5	82.7	83.4	83.2
Indep. Averages			98.0	97.1	98.4	97.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (O)	0-0	1-2	92.1	94.6	94.0	93.6
Ohio U	0-0	2-1	90.2	92.0	91.0	91.1
Buffalo	0-0	1-2	83.2	85.9	85.2	84.8
Akron	0-0	1-2	82.6	86.3	82.4	83.8
Kent St.	0-0	1-2	81.5	82.9	82.3	82.2
Bowling Green	0-0	0-3	80.4	80.9	81.1	80.8
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	0-0	3-0	99.6	99.6	101.3	100.2
Western Michigan	0-0	1-2	99.2	97.4	100.5	99.0
Eastern Michigan	0-0	2-0	94.6	94.2	94.5	94.4
Central Michigan	0-0	2-1	90.9	91.3	91.1	91.1
Northern Illinois	0-0	2-1	89.4	89.3	89.8	89.5
Ball St.	0-0	2-1	78.8	81.2	80.4	80.1
MAC Averages			88.5	89.6	89.5	89.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colo. State	0-0	2-2	105.0	103.4	105.1	104.5
Boise St.	1-0	2-1	101.4	99.3	100.8	100.5
Wyoming	0-0	1-2	95.8	93.7	94.4	94.6
Air Force	0-0	1-1	93.7	94.1	94.0	93.9
New Mexico	0-1	1-2	91.6	91.8	92.1	91.8
Utah St.	0-0	1-2	86.0	85.1	85.0	85.4
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	3-0	103.1	103.0	104.2	103.4
Hawaii	0-0	2-1	88.6	90.2	88.6	89.1
U N L V	0-0	1-1	87.5	90.4	87.9	88.6
Fresno St.	0-0	1-2	88.6	87.0	88.8	88.2
Nevada	0-0	0-3	84.0	87.1	86.0	85.7
San Jose St.	0-0	1-3	83.3	82.9	82.5	82.9
MWC Averages			92.4	92.3	92.4	92.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	0-0	3-0	128.4	125.0	129.1	127.5
Stanford	0-1	1-2	116.6	115.2	115.8	115.9
Washington St.	1-0	3-0	117.0	114.3	116.1	115.8
Oregon	0-0	3-0	114.3	110.8	113.6	112.9
California	0-0	3-0	101.4	98.9	99.6	100.0
Oregon St.	0-1	1-3	92.6	92.6	91.1	92.1
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	1-0	3-0	120.8	120.3	120.9	120.7
Colorado	0-0	3-0	113.1	111.1	110.9	111.7
U C L A	0-0	2-1	109.8	109.0	109.5	109.4
Utah	0-0	3-0	106.6	108.7	107.0	107.4
Arizona St.	0-0	1-2	100.4	100.7	99.4	100.2
Arizona	0-0	2-1	100.0	99.0	98.4	99.1
Pac-12 Averages			110.1	108.8	109.3	109.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	0-0	3-0	116.7	117.9	116.8	117.1
Florida	1-0	1-1	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
Kentucky	1-0	3-0	113.0	111.5	112.7	112.4
Tennessee	0-1	2-1	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
Vanderbilt	0-0	3-0	110.9	109.2	110.2	110.1
S. Carolina	1-1	2-1	107.6	106.8	106.6	107.0
Missouri	0-1	1-2	98.4	95.9	97.2	97.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	0-0	3-0	132.2	127.6	131.0	130.3
Auburn	0-0	2-1	122.7	120.6	122.5	121.9
L S U	0-1	2-1	115.5	113.7	116.2	115.1
Mississippi St.	1-0	3-0	112.1	112.7	112.5	112.4
Arkansas	0-0	1-1	106.7	106.2	106.5	106.5
Ole Miss	0-0	2-1	105.9	104.4	104.1	104.8
Texas A&M	0-0	2-1	104.8	102.7	103.4	103.6
SEC Averages			112.4	111.0	111.8	111.7
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	1-0	2-1	98.0	95.7	98.3	97.3
Troy	1-0	2-1	93.7	93.8	92.9	93.5
Arkansas St.	0-0	1-1	89.3	90.9	91.0	90.4
N. Mexico St.	0-1	1-2	87.1	84.7	86.6	86.1
S. Alabama	0-0	1-2	84.5	87.4	84.7	85.5
UL-Lafayette	0-0	1-2	84.2	85.5	84.0	84.6
Idaho	0-0	1-2	83.2	85.3	84.1	84.2
Georgia St.	0-0	0-2	83.0	82.2	82.8	82.7
UL-Monroe	0-0	0-2	81.2	81.7	79.8	80.9
Georgia Southern	0-0	0-2	79.9	81.2	79.5	80.2
Coastal Carolina	0-0	1-1	73.5	74.9	75.2	74.6
Texas St.	0-1	1-2	73.2	76.0	72.2	73.8
Sun Belt Averages			84.2	85.0	84.3	84.5

Conference Ratings
Thanks to Wake Forest, Virgnia Tech, Syracuse, and North Carolina State improving with non-conference wins, while Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri sunk after so-so non-conference performances, the ACC overtook the SEC by a tiny bit for top conference. There are only three points separating the Power 5 conferences after three weeks of the season.

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	112.5	111.3	111.9	111.9
2	SEC	112.4	111.0	111.8	111.7
3	BIG 12	109.8	110.0	110.0	109.9
4	PAC-12	110.1	108.8	109.3	109.4
5	BIG TEN	109.0	108.9	108.7	108.9
6	INDEP.	98.0	97.1	98.4	97.8
7	AAC	97.5	98.1	97.9	97.8
8	MWC	92.4	92.3	92.4	92.4
9	MAC	88.5	89.6	89.5	89.2
10	Sun Belt	84.2	85.0	84.3	84.5
11	CUSA	83.6	85.4	84.4	84.5

Bowl Projections Debut in October

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PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 7-9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Purdue	Ohio U	8.3	8.7	8.1
South Alabama	Oklahoma St.	-34.5	-30.2	-36.1
Wisconsin	Florida Atlantic	44.7	37.0	42.2
Army	Buffalo	16.7	12.9	15.6
Michigan St.	Western Michigan	-5.2	2.7	-6.3
Rutgers	Eastern Michigan	7.1	6.5	6.2
Massachusetts	Old Dominion	-4.5	-8.3	-5.3
Duke	Northwestern	-2.7	-2.0	-4.0
Connecticut	South Florida	-20.3	-15.3	-20.9
West Virginia	East Carolina	24.3	24.0	24.2
Michigan	Cincinnati	32.3	28.4	30.0
North Carolina	Louisville	-3.8	-4.4	-5.8
Kansas St.	Charlotte	42.2	38.9	42.1
Iowa St.	Iowa	-9.3	-7.3	-8.3
Boston College	Wake Forest	2.3	3.7	2.5
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	8.6	11.8	10.4
UTEP	Rice	-0.6	2.9	0.4
Colorado	Texas St.	47.4	40.6	46.6
Ball St.	UAB	17.2	13.8	16.4
Syracuse	Middle Tennessee	23.7	20.4	21.7
Virginia	Indiana	-2.4	-2.5	-1.4
Penn St.	Pittsburgh	19.4	17.1	20.9
Alabama	Fresno St.	48.8	45.5	47.8
Navy	Tulane	8.1	8.6	7.6
Illinois	Western Kentucky	-7.0	-2.5	-10.4
Baylor	UTSA	12.6	13.3	10.3
UCLA	Hawaii	23.3	20.5	22.6
Kansas	Central Michigan	5.4	8.6	4.3
Oregon	Nebraska	10.2	5.1	9.8
Arkansas St.	Miami (Fla.)	-26.1	-22.2	-23.6
Texas	San Jose St.	25.8	28.0	26.5
Arkansas	TCU	0.8	3.3	1.1
Tulsa	UL-Lafayette	21.5	18.4	21.6
North Carolina St.	Marshall	35.2	32.7	33.8
Nevada	Toledo	-10.5	-6.8	-9.8
Florida St.	UL-Monroe	48.1	45.8	48.9
Missouri	South Carolina	1.3	-1.9	0.8
SMU	North Texas	17.6	16.1	17.9
Clemson	Auburn	7.4	5.7	6.6
Notre Dame	Georgia	-2.2	-5.4	-2.2
Louisiana Tech	Mississippi St.	-12.0	-11.0	-11.4
Ohio St.	Oklahoma	11.6	10.5	9.8
Central Florida	Memphis	0.8	3.8	1.3
USC	Stanford	2.9	5.0	4.2
Idaho	UNLV	5.9	5.3	6.3
Oregon St.	Minnesota	-4.1	-4.5	-5.4
Arizona St.	San Diego St.	5.9	4.9	3.0
BYU	Utah	-2.8	-6.6	-2.6
Arizona	Houston	-2.3	-2.4	-4.6
Washington St.	Boise St.	23.4	21.8	23.3

FBS vs. FCS Games

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Utah St.	Idaho St.	25
Florida	Northern Colorado	40
Kentucky	Eastern Kentucky	30
LSU	Chattanooga	40
Ole Miss	UT-Martin	30
Tennessee	Indiana St.	37
Vanderbilt	Alabama A&M	45
Colorado St.	Abilene Christian	37
Wyoming	Gardner-Webb	29
Florida Int’l.	Alcorn St.	15
Maryland	Towson	33
Georgia Tech	Jacksonville St.	18
Temple	Villanova	19
Appalachian St.	Savannah St.	46
Miami (O)	Austin Peay	24
Northern Illinois	Eastern Illinois	20
Kent St.	Howard	22
Virginia Tech	Delaware	41
California	Weber St.	29
Georgia Southern	New Hampshire	11
Troy	Alabama St.	35
Bowling Green	South Dakota	5
Southern Miss.	Southern U	23
Texas A&M	Nicholls St.	38
Akron	Ark.-Pine Bluff	42
Washington	Montana	41

Is this really just week two of the college football season? Normally, in week two, you get 40 FBS vs. FCS games on the schedule. You get the Big Ten playing the MAC; other Power 5 teams playing the weakest Group of 5 teams they can schedule if they didn’t get a FCS patsy. At best, you might get one or two marquee matchups and maybe a couple of okay conference games.
There are 26 FBS vs. FCS contests this week, but even a couple of those might now be interesting after Howard upset UNLV, Liberty knocked off Baylor, Tennessee State beat Georgia State, and James Madison took out East Carolina. There are a half dozen FCS teams this week that have a legitimate chance to beat an FBS team, led by South Dakota, which might even be favored over Bowling Green when the extra lines are released later this week.
There are some Power 5 vs. Group of 5 patsy games on the schedule, but there are a few that could become upsets, like Ohio at Purdue, Western Michigan at Michigan State, Eastern Michigan at Rutgers, Western Kentucky at Illinois, Central Michigan at Kansas, San Diego State at Arizona State, Houston at Arizona, and Boise State at Washington State. There are actually two Group of 5 teams hosting Power 5 teams. Mississippi State risks humility at tough Louisiana Tech, while Utah plays at rival BYU.
Ah, but now we get to the marquee games. There are enough to make this look more like the Saturday before Thanksgiving than week two. We have broken the slate down into great expectation contests and important other contests to preview this week.
Great Expectations
Pittsburgh at Penn State: We know James Franklin. We know that James Franklin has been reminding his Nittany Lions what Pitt did to PSU last year. We know Penn State has the talent to run the table and earn a playoff spot this year, while Pittsburgh may be about the same as last year. The Panthers also knocked off Clemson, so Coach Pat Narduzzi may be the new giant killer in college football, along the lines of Jack Curtice and Al Onofrio and Warren Powers at Missouri in past times. While the Nittany Lions should be considered rather heavy favorites in this one, it will be worth watching.

TCU at Arkansas: This was a great game last year, with Arkansas winning by 3 in overtime. The Big 12 needs a signature win in a hurry, and the league will get multiple opportunities to pull off a big win. Both teams looked dominant in wins over FCS foes last week, and those games served as fine dress rehearsals for this one. TCU’s Kenny Hill could be the difference in this one if his team is to win. Arkansas looks similar to the last two years, maybe a tad stronger, so this game should be close once again.

Auburn at Clemson: Trivia question with an obvious answer: In last year’s national championship run, only one opponent held Clemson under 20 points. Obviously, since it is brought up here, the answer is Auburn. That Auburn team did not have a lot of offense, and they kept it close, losing 19-13. This Auburn team has a powerful offense, and the defense is about as good as it was last year. Meanwhile, Clemson looks to have reloaded rather than rebuilt. This game could be more like a “quarterfinal round” game in the NCAA Playoffs. If you watch just one game this week, we’d select this one by a hair over a couple others. But, hey, you are going to take care of your Saturday chores and errands really early, so you can watch every single one of these games, aren’t you? We know you. We know your kind–we see it when we look in the mirror.

Georgia at Notre Dame: For a short time Saturday, it looked like Georgia had moved from a co-favorite to win the SEC East to the outright favorite after Florida’s offense forgot the object of the game is to move the ball toward the other team’s goal. Then, quarterback Jacob Eason took a beating near the sideline and was lost for the remainder of the game with a knee sprain. He is definitely out this week, and it isn’t a sure thing he will be back by September 23, when the Bulldogs play their first SEC game against the other Bulldogs, Mississippi State. Notre Dame easily dismissed Temple last week, which means they are better this year than last. How much better is still to be determined. If they are considerably better, the Irish need to win this big home game. If they are only a little better, they will look like Florida looked against Michigan last week.

Oklahoma at Ohio State: This is the second best game of the week, but it could easily become the better of the top two games. Ohio State might beat Indiana by 7 touchdowns if they played again, but Oklahoma might also beat Indiana by “half a hundred,” as former Coach Barry Switzer wanted every week. Which team has the better secondary? Oklahoma wins here. Who has the better offensive and defensive lines? Offensive lines are about equal, but the Buckeyes have the better defensive line. The offensive skill positions for both teams are top flight. We could see this one still to be decided late in the fourth quarter, or maybe after the fourth quarter.

Stanford at USC: Okay, maybe USC overlooked Western Michigan. Maybe WMU is still just as good as last year. Or, maybe the Trojan defense isn’t quite up to championship standards just yet. Stanford didn’t let down in their game against Rice “down under,” in Sydney, Australia. The Cardinal steamrolled the Owls, who definitely are not in Western Michigan’s class. This game should be interesting. Sam Darnold should be able to pass the ball with enough efficiency to put up 250 passing yards and 24 or more points, but can the USC defense contain a Stanford offense that looked very similar to the 2010 team that had Andrew Luck and Stepfan Taylor.

Important Other Games of Interest
Western Michigan at Michigan State: The Spartans disappointed greatly last year, and their opening win over Bowling Green did nothing to prove they were back. Western Michigan gave USC all it could handle for 3 quarters, and the Broncos look to be very good again this year under new head coach Tim Lester. This game should give Spartan fans a realistic look at whether their team is coming back. A win in East Lansing could propel the Spartans to a .500 or better season and a bowl bid. A loss, followed by another to Notre Dame next week, and MSU could finish under .500 again.

Northwestern at Duke: Stanford and Vanderbilt looked terrific in their first games. Duke and Northwestern looked okay, but this could be a year where all four brainy schools become bowl eligible. The winner of this game will be 2-0 with an almost guarantee of moving to 3-0 the following week.

Iowa at Iowa St.: Both teams looked better than decent in game one, but neither set the woods on fire. However, like the previous game, the winner of this rivalry emerges at 2-0 with an almost certain 3-0 start after next week. Matt Campbell may be about ready to take the Cyclones up a notch or two in the Big 12 standings, and we will be monitoring this one closely. If Iowa wins by double digits, then the Hawkeyes move to the top contender spot to Wisconsin in the Big Ten West.

Wake Forest at Boston College: Yet another game where the winner will be 2-0, this game should be a nice defensive showcase with the possibility that defense and special teams will be the deciding factor in a 17-14 type of score (BC won 17-14 last year). BC won in Winston-Salem last year, and the Eagles should be considered a mild favorite. Wake Forest has more experience and maybe a little better depth, so this game should be very close.

Nebraska at Oregon: Willie Taggart needed two years of rebuilding at his two previous stops in the coaching profession. Western Kentucky and South Florida both performed poorly in season one of their Taggart eras. Oregon opened the 2017 season with a 77-point offensive barrage against Southern Utah. Nebraska struggled with an Arkansas State team that could win 10 games this year and will almost assuredly earn a bowl bid. This game will give us a lot more information about whether Oregon can turn the corner in Taggart’s first year in Eugene, and whether Coach Mike Riley can get Nebraska back to the high echelon in college football, or whether 7-9 wins is the new norm in Lincoln.

South Carolina at Missouri: After watching Florida and Tennessee play in week one, there is clearly a chance for South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky to move up to number two behind Georgia, and if Eason is out long in Athens, who knows? Any of the current back four could sneak up and take the East Division flag. Because it is the first conference game of the season for the SEC, the winner will take the early lead in the East. South Carolina looked mighty impressive in their win over North Carolina State, while Missouri’s offense looked fantastic against Missouri State. The Tigers’ defense made MSU’s offense look great. As we mentioned in our preseason preview, it would not shock us if Missouri became the first major college team to both score and surrender 40 points per game in a season. The Tigers should score a lot of points again this week. If the Gamecocks don’t play too conservatively, USC can put up 50 on the Tiger defense. Missouri might win if Coach Will Muschamp tries to sustain a lot of long drives and keeps the ball out of Drew Lock’s hands.

Boise State at Washington State: This will be an interesting late game in the Palouse. Washington State’s defense pitched a shutout against Montana State in game one, while the Cougar offense was a lot more potent than the 31 points scored showed. This could be the best Mike Leach-coached team ever or a close second best to his 2008 team at Texas Tech.

The PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	133.5	128.7	132.5	131.6
2	Ohio St.	132.6	129.5	131.8	131.3
3	Washington	128.4	124.8	129.2	127.5
4	Clemson	128.5	124.7	127.6	126.9
5	Florida St.	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
6	Penn St.	126.2	123.9	126.9	125.7
7	Oklahoma	124.0	122.0	125.0	123.7
8	Auburn	124.1	122.0	124.0	123.4
9	Oklahoma St.	121.2	119.8	122.8	121.3
10	Wisconsin	122.9	118.8	121.4	121.1
11	U S C	120.2	119.8	120.6	120.2
12	L S U	120.4	118.6	121.1	120.0
13	Stanford	120.3	117.9	119.3	119.2
14	Washington St.	119.5	116.2	118.7	118.1
15	Michigan	118.3	117.3	117.5	117.7
16	Miami	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
17	Georgia	116.4	117.7	116.5	116.9
18	Virginia Tech	116.7	116.3	117.1	116.7
19	Louisville	116.7	115.8	117.1	116.5
20	Florida	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
21	N. Carolina St.	115.2	114.5	114.9	114.9
22	Kansas St.	114.1	113.6	114.5	114.1
23	Colorado	114.8	112.1	112.7	113.2
24	Iowa	112.0	111.4	111.7	111.7
25	Northwestern	112.1	110.0	111.8	111.3
26	Georgia Tech	112.8	110.3	110.8	111.3
27	Kentucky	111.8	110.3	111.3	111.1
28	Tennessee	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
29	T C U	111.7	108.9	111.4	110.6
30	Notre Dame	111.2	109.3	111.3	110.6
31	Texas	109.5	110.7	109.5	109.9
32	Oregon	111.2	107.8	110.2	109.7
33	Arkansas	109.5	109.1	109.5	109.4
34	Vanderbilt	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
35	South Florida	109.5	107.7	110.7	109.3
36	Syracuse	110.3	108.1	109.3	109.2
37	N. Carolina	109.9	108.4	108.3	108.9
38	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.8	108.0	108.5
39	U C L A	108.9	107.8	108.3	108.3
40	West Virginia	107.8	108.8	107.7	108.1
41	Ole Miss	107.6	106.2	106.0	106.6
42	Texas A&M	107.6	105.2	106.2	106.3
43	Utah	105.2	107.9	105.4	106.2
44	S. Carolina	106.4	106.1	105.6	106.0
45	Maryland	105.3	107.4	105.4	106.0
46	Duke	106.3	105.1	104.9	105.4
47	Mississippi St.	104.4	105.1	104.6	104.7
48	Memphis	104.9	103.9	105.3	104.7
49	Nebraska	104.0	105.8	103.3	104.4
50	Minnesota	104.4	104.6	104.0	104.3
51	Indiana	104.1	104.3	104.1	104.2
52	Colo. State	104.2	102.8	104.1	103.7
53	Houston	104.1	102.9	104.0	103.7
54	Central Florida	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
55	Missouri	104.7	101.3	103.4	103.1
56	Baylor	101.9	104.4	101.8	102.7
57	Tulsa	102.7	101.7	102.7	102.4
58	Texas Tech	102.8	102.5	101.6	102.3
59	Wake Forest	102.7	102.2	102.0	102.3
60	Boston College	102.0	102.9	101.5	102.1
61	Western Michigan	102.7	99.1	104.4	102.1
62	Iowa State	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
63	Arizona St.	102.3	102.3	101.0	101.9
64	BYU	100.9	99.8	101.3	100.6
65	San Diego St.	99.4	100.4	101.0	100.3
66	Toledo	99.3	99.1	100.9	99.8
67	Navy	99.2	100.2	99.1	99.5
68	Virginia	98.7	98.8	99.7	99.1
69	California	100.6	98.0	98.6	99.1
70	Appalachian St.	99.7	96.9	100.2	98.9
71	W. Kentucky	98.6	96.1	100.4	98.4
72	Boise St.	98.6	96.9	97.9	97.8
73	Michigan St.	96.0	100.3	96.6	97.6
74	Arizona	98.8	97.6	96.4	97.6
75	Wyoming	98.7	96.3	97.5	97.5
76	SMU	97.0	97.3	97.4	97.2
77	Purdue	96.1	98.4	96.9	97.1
78	Rutgers	97.0	96.6	96.3	96.6
79	Army	96.3	95.9	97.2	96.5
80	Oregon St.	96.7	96.6	95.1	96.1
81	Temple	95.7	96.4	95.8	96.0
82	Miami (O)	92.9	95.3	95.1	94.4
83	Tulane	94.1	94.5	94.5	94.4
84	Troy	93.9	94.1	93.1	93.7
85	Air Force	93.3	94.0	93.6	93.6
86	New Mexico	92.7	93.2	93.6	93.2
87	Eastern Michigan	93.0	93.0	93.1	93.0
88	U T S A	91.3	93.1	93.5	92.6
89	Kansas	91.1	94.5	90.4	92.0
90	Ohio U	90.9	92.6	91.8	91.8
91	Old Dominion	90.4	93.4	90.9	91.6
92	Middle Tennessee	90.2	91.1	91.1	90.8
93	Louisiana Tech	89.8	91.6	90.7	90.7
94	Arkansas St.	89.5	91.1	91.2	90.6
95	Cincinnati	89.0	91.8	90.5	90.4
96	Hawaii	89.6	91.3	89.7	90.2
97	Illinois	89.1	91.2	87.5	89.3
98	Central Michigan	88.7	88.9	89.1	88.9
99	Connecticut	86.7	89.9	87.3	88.0
100	Idaho	86.2	88.9	87.0	87.3
101	Nevada	85.4	88.8	87.6	87.2
102	Fresno St.	87.6	86.2	87.7	87.2
103	East Carolina	86.5	87.8	86.5	86.9
104	Southern Miss.	86.1	87.5	86.2	86.6
105	Utah St.	87.1	86.0	86.3	86.5
106	Northern Illinois	86.2	86.2	86.4	86.2
107	San Jose St.	86.7	85.7	86.0	86.1
108	UL-Lafayette	84.3	86.2	84.1	84.9
109	Akron	83.5	87.3	83.5	84.8
110	S. Alabama	83.6	86.6	83.8	84.7
111	U N L V	83.3	86.5	83.7	84.5
112	N. Mexico St.	85.6	82.9	84.7	84.4
113	Georgia St.	84.5	83.7	84.4	84.2
114	Marshall	83.0	84.8	84.1	84.0
115	Kent St.	83.2	84.4	84.2	83.9
116	Buffalo	81.6	84.9	83.6	83.4
117	Massachusetts	83.4	82.6	83.1	83.0
118	Florida Atlantic	81.3	84.8	82.2	82.8
119	Bowling Green	81.8	82.4	82.7	82.3
120	N. Texas	81.5	83.1	81.4	82.0
121	Florida Int’l.	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
122	Georgia Southern	81.2	82.5	80.8	81.5
123	UL-Monroe	81.8	82.1	80.3	81.4
124	Ball St.	78.9	81.0	80.3	80.1
125	Rice	77.8	78.8	78.1	78.2
126	U T E P	74.7	79.2	76.0	76.7
127	Charlotte	74.9	77.7	75.4	76.0
128	Coastal Carolina	74.8	75.7	76.6	75.7
129	Texas St.	70.4	74.4	69.1	71.3
130	UAB	64.2	69.7	66.4	66.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	0-0	2-0	109.5	107.7	110.7	109.3
Central Florida	0-0	1-0	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
Temple	0-0	0-1	95.7	96.4	95.8	96.0
Cincinnati	0-0	1-0	89.0	91.8	90.5	90.4
Connecticut	0-0	1-0	86.7	89.9	87.3	88.0
East Carolina	0-0	0-1	86.5	87.8	86.5	86.9
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	1-0	104.9	103.9	105.3	104.7
Houston	0-0	0-0	104.1	102.9	104.0	103.7
Tulsa	0-0	0-1	102.7	101.7	102.7	102.4
Navy	0-0	1-0	99.2	100.2	99.1	99.5
SMU	0-0	1-0	97.0	97.3	97.4	97.2
Tulane	0-0	1-0	94.1	94.5	94.5	94.4
AAC Averages			97.7	98.2	98.1	98.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	0-0	1-0	128.5	124.7	127.6	126.9
Florida St.	0-0	0-1	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
Louisville	0-0	1-0	116.7	115.8	117.1	116.5
N. Carolina St.	0-0	0-1	115.2	114.5	114.9	114.9
Syracuse	0-0	1-0	110.3	108.1	109.3	109.2
Wake Forest	0-0	1-0	102.7	102.2	102.0	102.3
Boston College	0-0	1-0	102.0	102.9	101.5	102.1
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	0-0	1-0	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
Virginia Tech	0-0	1-0	116.7	116.3	117.1	116.7
Georgia Tech	0-0	0-1	112.8	110.3	110.8	111.3
N. Carolina	0-0	0-1	109.9	108.4	108.3	108.9
Pittsburgh	0-0	1-0	108.8	108.8	108.0	108.5
Duke	0-0	1-0	106.3	105.1	104.9	105.4
Virginia	0-0	1-0	98.7	98.8	99.7	99.1
ACC Averages			112.5	111.2	111.8	111.8
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	0-0	1-0	124.0	122.0	125.0	123.7
Oklahoma St.	0-0	1-0	121.2	119.8	122.8	121.3
Kansas St.	0-0	1-0	114.1	113.6	114.5	114.1
T C U	0-0	1-0	111.7	108.9	111.4	110.6
Texas	0-0	0-1	109.5	110.7	109.5	109.9
West Virginia	0-0	0-1	107.8	108.8	107.7	108.1
Baylor	0-0	0-1	101.9	104.4	101.8	102.7
Texas Tech	0-0	1-0	102.8	102.5	101.6	102.3
Iowa State	0-0	1-0	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
Kansas	0-0	1-0	91.1	94.5	90.4	92.0
Big 12 Averages			108.5	108.8	108.7	108.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	1-0	1-0	132.6	129.5	131.8	131.3
Penn St.	0-0	1-0	126.2	123.9	126.9	125.7
Michigan	0-0	1-0	118.3	117.3	117.5	117.7
Maryland	0-0	1-0	105.3	107.4	105.4	106.0
Indiana	0-1	0-1	104.1	104.3	104.1	104.2
Michigan St.	0-0	1-0	96.0	100.3	96.6	97.6
Rutgers	0-0	0-1	97.0	96.6	96.3	96.6
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	1-0	122.9	118.8	121.4	121.1
Iowa	0-0	1-0	112.0	111.4	111.7	111.7
Northwestern	0-0	1-0	112.1	110.0	111.8	111.3
Nebraska	0-0	1-0	104.0	105.8	103.3	104.4
Minnesota	0-0	1-0	104.4	104.6	104.0	104.3
Purdue	0-0	0-1	96.1	98.4	96.9	97.1
Illinois	0-0	1-0	89.1	91.2	87.5	89.3
Big Ten Averages			108.6	108.5	108.2	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	0-0	1-0	98.6	96.1	100.4	98.4
Old Dominion	0-0	1-0	90.4	93.4	90.9	91.6
Middle Tennessee	0-0	0-1	90.2	91.1	91.1	90.8
Marshall	0-0	1-0	83.0	84.8	84.1	84.0
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-1	81.3	84.8	82.2	82.8
Florida Int’l.	0-0	0-1	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
Charlotte	0-0	0-1	74.9	77.7	75.4	76.0
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	0-0	0-0	91.3	93.1	93.5	92.6
Louisiana Tech	0-0	1-0	89.8	91.6	90.7	90.7
Southern Miss.	0-0	0-1	86.1	87.5	86.2	86.6
N. Texas	0-0	1-0	81.5	83.1	81.4	82.0
Rice	0-0	0-1	77.8	78.8	78.1	78.2
U T E P	0-0	0-1	74.7	79.2	76.0	76.7
UAB	0-0	1-0	64.2	69.7	66.4	66.8
CUSA Averages			83.2	85.2	84.2	84.2
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		1-0	111.2	109.3	111.3	110.6
BYU		1-1	100.9	99.8	101.3	100.6
Army		1-0	96.3	95.9	97.2	96.5
Massachusetts		0-2	83.4	82.6	83.1	83.0
Indep. Averages			97.9	96.9	98.2	97.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (O)	0-0	0-1	92.9	95.3	95.1	94.4
Ohio U	0-0	1-0	90.9	92.6	91.8	91.8
Akron	0-0	0-1	83.5	87.3	83.5	84.8
Kent St.	0-0	0-1	83.2	84.4	84.2	83.9
Buffalo	0-0	0-1	81.6	84.9	83.6	83.4
Bowling Green	0-0	0-1	81.8	82.4	82.7	82.3
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	0-0	0-1	102.7	99.1	104.4	102.1
Toledo	0-0	1-0	99.3	99.1	100.9	99.8
Eastern Michigan	0-0	1-0	93.0	93.0	93.1	93.0
Central Michigan	0-0	1-0	88.7	88.9	89.1	88.9
Northern Illinois	0-0	0-1	86.2	86.2	86.4	86.2
Ball St.	0-0	0-1	78.9	81.0	80.3	80.1
MAC Averages			88.6	89.5	89.6	89.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colo. State	0-0	1-1	104.2	102.8	104.1	103.7
Boise St.	0-0	1-0	98.6	96.9	97.9	97.8
Wyoming	0-0	0-1	98.7	96.3	97.5	97.5
Air Force	0-0	1-0	93.3	94.0	93.6	93.6
New Mexico	0-0	1-0	92.7	93.2	93.6	93.2
Utah St.	0-0	0-1	87.1	86.0	86.3	86.5
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	1-0	99.4	100.4	101.0	100.3
Hawaii	0-0	2-0	89.6	91.3	89.7	90.2
Nevada	0-0	0-1	85.4	88.8	87.6	87.2
Fresno St.	0-0	1-0	87.6	86.2	87.7	87.2
San Jose St.	0-0	1-1	86.7	85.7	86.0	86.1
U N L V	0-0	0-1	83.3	86.5	83.7	84.5
MWC Averages			92.2	92.3	92.4	92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	0-0	1-0	128.4	124.8	129.2	127.5
Stanford	0-0	1-0	120.3	117.9	119.3	119.2
Washington St.	0-0	1-0	119.5	116.2	118.7	118.1
Oregon	0-0	1-0	111.2	107.8	110.2	109.7
California	0-0	1-0	100.6	98.0	98.6	99.1
Oregon St.	0-0	1-1	96.7	96.6	95.1	96.1
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	0-0	1-0	120.2	119.8	120.6	120.2
Colorado	0-0	1-0	114.8	112.1	112.7	113.2
U C L A	0-0	1-0	108.9	107.8	108.3	108.3
Utah	0-0	1-0	105.2	107.9	105.4	106.2
Arizona St.	0-0	1-0	102.3	102.3	101.0	101.9
Arizona	0-0	1-0	98.8	97.6	96.4	97.6
Pac-12 Averages			110.6	109.1	109.6	109.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	0-0	1-0	116.4	117.7	116.5	116.9
Florida	0-0	0-1	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
Kentucky	0-0	1-0	111.8	110.3	111.3	111.1
Tennessee	0-0	1-0	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
Vanderbilt	0-0	1-0	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
S. Carolina	0-0	1-0	106.4	106.1	105.6	106.0
Missouri	0-0	1-0	104.7	101.3	103.4	103.1
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	0-0	1-0	133.5	128.7	132.5	131.6
Auburn	0-0	1-0	124.1	122.0	124.0	123.4
L S U	0-0	1-0	120.4	118.6	121.1	120.0
Arkansas	0-0	1-0	109.5	109.1	109.5	109.4
Ole Miss	0-0	1-0	107.6	106.2	106.0	106.6
Texas A&M	0-0	0-1	107.6	105.2	106.2	106.3
Mississippi St.	0-0	1-0	104.4	105.1	104.6	104.7
SEC Averages			113.1	111.7	112.5	112.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	0-0	0-1	99.7	96.9	100.2	98.9
Troy	0-0	0-1	93.9	94.1	93.1	93.7
Arkansas St.	0-0	0-1	89.5	91.1	91.2	90.6
Idaho	0-0	1-0	86.2	88.9	87.0	87.3
UL-Lafayette	0-0	1-0	84.3	86.2	84.1	84.9
S. Alabama	0-0	0-1	83.6	86.6	83.8	84.7
N. Mexico St.	0-0	0-1	85.6	82.9	84.7	84.4
Georgia St.	0-0	0-1	84.5	83.7	84.4	84.2
Georgia Southern	0-0	0-1	81.2	82.5	80.8	81.5
UL-Monroe	0-0	0-1	81.8	82.1	80.3	81.4
Coastal Carolina	0-0	1-0	74.8	75.7	76.6	75.7
Texas St.	0-0	1-0	70.4	74.4	69.1	71.3
Sun Belt Averages			84.6	85.4	84.6	84.9

Overall Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.1	111.7	112.5	112.4
2	ACC	112.5	111.2	111.8	111.8
3	PAC-12	110.6	109.1	109.6	109.8
4	BIG 12	108.5	108.8	108.7	108.7
5	BIG TEN	108.6	108.5	108.2	108.4
6	AAC	97.7	98.2	98.1	98.0
7	INDEP.	97.9	96.9	98.2	97.7
8	MWC	92.2	92.3	92.4	92.3
9	MAC	88.6	89.5	89.6	89.2
10	SBC	84.6	85.4	84.6	84.9
11	CUSA	83.2	85.2	84.2	84.2

 

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Washington
5	Oklahoma
6	USC
7	Penn St.
8	LSU
9	Oklahoma St.
10	Auburn
11	Miami (Fla)
12	Wisconsin
13	Stanford
14	Michigan
15	Florida St.
16	Virginia Tech
17	Kansas St.
18	Louisville
19	Washington St.
20	Georgia
21	Utah
22	Tennessee
23	Florida
24	Iowa
25	Colorado
26	South Florida
27	Pittsburgh
28	Georgia Tech
29	Nebraska
30	Western Michigan
31	Boise St.
32	Texas A&M
33	Northwestern
34	Houston
35	TCU
36	Notre Dame
37	West Virginia
38	Kentucky
39	Western Kentucky
40	Mississippi St.
41	San Diego St.
42	North Carolina
43	Toledo
44	Arkansas
45	Minnesota
46	UCLA
47	North Carolina St.
48	Memphis
49	Oregon
50	South Carolina
51	Vanderbilt
52	Ole Miss
53	California
54	Navy
55	Tulsa
56	BYU
57	Appalachian St.
58	Colorado St.
59	Air Force
60	Temple
61	Michigan St.
62	Wake Forest
63	Boston College
64	Louisiana Tech
65	Maryland
66	Troy
67	Central Florida
68	Texas Tech
69	Indiana
70	Old Dominion
71	Texas
72	Arkansas St.
73	Syracuse
74	Baylor
75	Duke
76	Missouri
77	Idaho
78	Arizona St.
79	New Mexico
80	Army
81	Wyoming
82	Arizona
83	Ohio
84	Eastern Michigan
85	Oregon St.
86	SMU
87	Iowa St.
88	Hawaii
89	UTSA
90	Northern Illinois
91	Central Michigan
92	Tulane
93	Southern Miss.
94	Middle Tennessee
95	Purdue
96	UL-Lafayette
97	Illinois
98	Virginia
99	Cincinnati
100	Georgia Southern
101	Miami (O)
102	North Texas
103	Nevada
104	San Jose St.
105	Utah St.
106	Rutgers
107	Marshall
108	Coastal Carolina
109	Kansas
110	UAB
111	Akron
112	South Alabama
113	Bowling Green
114	East Carolina
115	Connecticut
116	Fresno St.
117	Ball St.
118	UL-Monroe
119	Kent St.
120	New Mexico St.
121	UTEP
122	UNLV
123	Georgia St.
124	Charlotte
125	Florida Int’l.
126	Rice
127	Buffalo
128	Massachusetts
129	Florida Atlantic
130	Texas St.

Note: Bowl Projections will resume in October

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for August 31-September 3, 2017

This Week’s College Football Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama (N)	Florida St.	6.6	3.8	6.3
Arizona St.	New Mexico St.	23.0	25.7	22.8
Auburn	Georgia Southern	46.7	42.9	47.2
Boise St.	Troy St.	8.3	6.2	8.2
Central Florida	Florida Intl.	17.1	19.6	16.6
Clemson	Kent	48.3	42.9	46.2
Coastal Carolina	Massachusetts	-10.5	-7.8	-8.4
Colorado	Colorado St.	9.4	8.3	7.0
Eastern Mich.	Charlotte	22.1	18.5	21.7
Florida (N)	Michigan	-1.1	-1.0	-0.8
Florida Atlantic	Navy	-12.5	-9.8	-11.1
Georgia	Appalachian St.	19.6	23.9	19.1
Georgia Tech	Tennessee	4.8	3.9	4.8
Illinois	Ball St.	14.4	14.0	11.2
Indiana	Ohio St.	-25.1	-21.6	-23.9
Iowa	Wyoming	16.2	18.4	17.1
LSU (N)	BYU	20.5	19.8	20.6
Marshall	Miami (Ohio)	-9.4	-9.8	-11.1
Memphis	Louisiana-Monroe	30.8	28.9	33.3
Michigan St.	Bowling Green	16.0	20.5	14.9
Middle Tenn.	Vanderbilt	-17.7	-14.9	-15.8
Minnesota	Buffalo	30.6	26.1	28.4
Mississippi	South Alabama	26.8	22.4	22.0
NC St. (N)	South Carolina	8.8	8.4	9.3
Nebraska	Arkansas St.	19.4	19.2	17.0
North Carolina	California	16.1	17.1	16.6
Northern Ill.	Boston College	-13.3	-14.1	-12.6
Northwestern	Nevada	34.5	28.0	31.8
Notre Dame	Temple	15.7	13.1	15.3
Oklahoma	UTEP	52.6	46.1	52.3
Oklahoma St.	Tulsa	14.5	14.5	16.1
Penn St.	Akron	43.6	36.7	43.9
Purdue (N)	Louisville	-22.0	-18.5	-21.7
Rutgers	Washington	-29.9	-25.5	-31.8
Southern Miss.	Kentucky	-24.5	-21.2	-24.1
Texas	Maryland	14.0	12.3	14.3
Texas-San Antonio	Houston	-10.3	-7.3	-8.0
UCLA	Texas A&M	4.0	5.5	4.8
USC	Western Mich.	22.4	25.8	21.1
Virginia Tech	West Va.	9.0	7.5	9.6
Wisconsin	Utah St.	37.6	34.4	36.9

(N) means neutral site game

We’ve had a small appetizer of college football games, and the first main course shall be served over the course of five days, commencing with a couple of choice morsels Thursday night. The PiRates will be focused on these games this weekend.

Ohio State at Indiana–It is rare for Big Ten teams to open with a conference game. This one should be a tad more interesting than it looks on the surface. Indiana released former head coach Kevin Wilson from his contract last year (actually a forced resignation), due to an issue with a player with more than an injured back who was told to keep playing.  Wilson didn’t wait long to have a new job. He is now the offensive coordinator at ….. Ohio State! Add Wilson’s chip on his shoulder to Coach Urban Meyer’s boulder chip on his shoulder from his Buckeyes’ being shut out by Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals, and Ohio State will most likely do everything it can to run the score up on IU. It is not supposed to matter, but if the Buckeyes win this game 63-0, the pollsters will immediately overreact and move them up in the polls, maybe up to number one.

Tulsa at Oklahoma State–Are the Cowboys strong enough to challenge rival Oklahoma and compete for the Big 12 Championship? This might be the best Oklahoma State team since the 2011 team came within an upset loss to Iowa State from playing for all the marbles. Tulsa might be a little better than the 10-3 team of last year, possibly the Golden Hurricane’s best team since maybe 1982 and definitely as good as recent dominant TU teams in this century. A close game doesn’t necessarily mean that Oklahoma State isn’t a playoff contender. This game could be rather close for quite a long time.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (in Denver)–The Rams’ offense looked lethal against Oregon State, and a team usually improves the most in the week between game one and game two. CU does benefit from having 2017 game film on CSU, but this advantage does not offset the one game of experience that the Rams have. If CSU pulls off the mild upset, the Rams could be in line to become the top Group of 5 contender for the New Year’s 6 Bowl tie-in. This just might be the actual best game of the week, but few people will watch this one outside the Centennial State.

Maryland at Texas–Tom Herman makes his debut in Austin, and the Longhorn faithful believe the days of wine and roses will return sooner rather than later. Maryland will not back down and be easy fodder for the Longhorns, and there is an extra factor in this game that could lead to a lower than expected game score. Who better to know the weaknesses of the Urban Meyer-style spread offense than somebody that was a defensive assistant under Meyer? In this game, former offensive coordinator Herman will lead UT against former Meyer defensive assistant D. J. Durkin, the head coach on the opposite sideline. This game becomes a real life chess match worth watching.

Wyoming at Iowa–Okay, you may not be all that excited about this game, but we are. First and foremost, some of the PiRates have a love and affinity for the Western part of this nation’s flyover real estate, Iowa and Wyoming included. Also, we are big time supporters of Cowboy coach Craig Bohl and Hawkeye coach Kirk Ferentz. These two gentlemen know their stuff, and their teams have an incredible grasp of the fundamentals and the “little things”. These two teams may win games in ways that are not easily seen in the box score. We look for this one to be nip and tuck, and it would not shock us if the visitors from Laramie pulled off the upset.

South Carolina vs. North Carolina State (in Charlotte)–The ACC has the small advantage over the SEC these days. The Wolf Pack appear to be primed to challenge Louisville for third best in the ACC Atlantic and maybe even become a dark horse contender for the division flag, while the Gamecocks are on the cusp but not yet playing like a challenger, even in the parity known as the SEC East. Our opinion on this one is that NCSU should win by more than a touchdown if not more than two. However, this should become a shootout, as South Carolin’a offense should annex a lot of territory in this game.

Florida vs. Michigan (in Arlington, TX)–We have been flip-flopping on this game since June. At first, we believed that Michigan could be in danger of falling back to 6-6 or even 5-7, while we believed that Florida was like a snake in high grass waiting to pounce on all the mice in their division of their league. Then, after looking at returning depth and experience, it appeared to us that Michigan had a lot of experienced backups who, with a year of seasoning, could be rather competent regulars in 2017. We were concerned about the Florida quarterback situation, and then Coach Jim McElwain secured the signature of former Notre Dame starter Malik Zaire. It tilted the needle over to the Gator side, but then McElwain was forced to suspend star receiver Antonio Callaway and a half dozen other players for this game. Callaway may have been the one piece in the puzzle that Michigan would have found no real answer in stopping. Now, the needle tilts toward the Maize and Blue. By the way, Michigan will wear maize-colored jerseys in this game, something they have not done in 89 years.

Alabama vs. Florida State (in Atlanta)–Obviously, this is the top game of the week and maybe the top game of the regular season. There are so many layers to peel off in this preview, more than we have space to devote to it. In an abridged version, can Florida State’s offensive line protect quarterback Deondre Francois long enough for him to find a group of raw receivers? Frnacois spent too much time with his back on the turf in 2016, and it will take a major improvement on the Seminoles part to hold off stars like Da’Ron Payne and get past the Crimson Tide trench to linebackers the quality of Rashaan Evans and Shaun Dion Hamilton. On the other side of the ball, Alabama cannot get by predominantly on a power running game. Jalen Hurts has the talent to throw for 200+ yards in this game. This game brings back memories of 50 years ago, when Alabama returned almost their entire two-deep from a defense that gave up 44 points in 11 games the year before and returned Ken Stabler from an offense that scored more than 27 points a game. The Tide were 20+ point favorites in this game and was lucky to escape with a 37-37 tie. Notably, in this game the great Bear Bryant was equipped with a microphone. There were issues with the scoreboard, and late in the game, Bryant was overheard on the mic saying, “What the H is the score any way?”

Texas A&M at UCLA–The losing team’s coach will sit on a seat that is about 10 degrees warmer Monday than it is now. Texas A&M has enough talent to compete for third in the SEC West and challenge for a 10-win season, but the Aggies looked as strong last year as well. After TAMU began the season 6-0, the team collapsed, finishing 2-5. The defense wore down after the overtime win over Tennessee, and the Aggies two wins after that big game came against New Mexico State and UT-San Antonio. UCLA struggled after quarterback Josh Rosen exited with a shoulder injury. However, the Bruins were just 3-2 prior to the injury in the Arizona State game, so Coach Jim Mora, Jr. overhauled the Bruin offense in the off-season and made numerous changes to his offensive coaching assistants. The Bruins also must rebuild a good bit on the defensive side of the ball, so the offense better gel quickly. So, don’t go up to the junior Mora and ask if his team can still make the playoffs this year.

There are a host of additional games on this week’s schedule that hold some bit of unique interest. Those games include:

FIU at Central Florida–Butch Davis returns to the sidelines for FIU and has enough talent to surprise in 2017. UCF believes they can challenge rival USF in the East.

Navy at FAU–Lane Kiffin’s debut with the Owls against the tricky triple option offense of Navy makes this one look like a track meet. It wouldn’t surprise us if more than 75 total points are scored in this one.

Temple at Notre Dame–The Owls begin life without Coach Matt Rhule. New head man Geoff Collins faces a total rebuild in Philly, while Notre Dame looks to recover from a poor 2016 season with a half-dozen new assistants.

Troy at Boise State–We have an eye on Boise at the start of the season. Boise State could be at a crossroads, where their dynasty seasons could be over. Then again, this could also be the low-point of a major rebuild. Troy was down for a few years, but the Trojans returned to Sun Belt fame last year with a 10-3 season and co-championship. It won’t get the headlines that the big games receive, but this game should be an excellent contest.

Kentucky at Southern Mississippi–Last year Southern Miss pulled off an incredible upset at Kentucky to begin the 2016 season, and it looked like Mark Stoops was in a bit of trouble in Lexington. However, the Wildcats turned things around to win seven games that included a trip to the Taxslayer Bowl. Now, there are football experts that believe Kentucky can compete for the 2017 SEC East title. The Blue and White return the bulk of an offense that averaged 30 points and 420 yards per game, while the defense should be a little better than last year. Southern Miss is not as strong as last year, but still good enough to knock off UK in Hattiesburg, especially if the expected rain makes this game sloppy.

Appalachian State at Georgia–Appy State came close to upsetting Tennessee in Knoxville to begin the 2016 season. Can the Mountaineers go down between the hedges and make like miserable for the Bulldogs? Georgia’s defense should control this game, holding ASU to about 200-250 total yards, while the offense may not be flashy, but should produce 200 rushing yards. If Georgia wins by less than 17 points, it will be cause for concern. We will look at all the SEC East teams carefully this week to see if one or two emerge as the true top squads.

Houston at UT-San Antonio–UTSA is a contender in the West Division of CUSA, and in a normal week, the Roadrunners would be expected to make this a close game. Houston must play this one with little practice thanks to Hurricane Harvey, and it is Major Applewhite’s debut with the Cougars. This will be interesting to see how much lost preparation hurts UH.

Georgia Southern at Auburn–We don’t expect this game to be close. It could easily be 21-0 in the first quarter. What we are looking for in this one is how well Tiger quarterback Jarrett Stidham runs Gus Malzahn’s offense. If Stidham replicates the stats from his last three FBS games (2015 against Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State), then watch out, because this Auburn team just might be good enough to go to the 2017-18 playoffs. Stidham’s stat line in those three games was 51-81-2 for 934 yards and 6 TDs. If he averages 11.5 yards per pass attempt for Auburn, then even Alabama better beware.

Purdue vs. Louisville (in Indianapolis)–This game features Jeff Brohm making his Boilermaker coaching Purdue against former mentor Bobby Petrino and some QB named Lamar Jackson, who owns some trophy he received from the Downtown Athletic Club in Manhattan named for former coach John Heisman. It would not be shocking if UL won this one by a score similar to 62-24, but what makes this game interesting is to see how a Big Ten team looks running a spread passing game.

South Alabama at Ole Miss–South Alabama upset Mississippi State and San Diego State last year, two teams that played in bowls. So, it would not be a big shock if the Jaguars won in Oxford. However, if USA wins, the blame will be on Ole Miss and interim coach Matt Luke rather than on the performance. Luke is most likely in a position where he has little chance of keeping the job full time, even though he deserves a head coaching job. It would not surprise us if a big name coach was patrolling the home team sidelines at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium next year.

LSU vs. BYU (in New Orleans)–This game was moved from Houston to New Orleans due to the hurricane. It gives the Tigers a tiny bit more advantage, but we didn’t think this game would be all that close in Houston. BYU has a game under its belt, and the Cougars did not show their entire arsenal. What they showed was only adequate at best. This game takes on added interest not because of the weather, but because whether Ed Orgeron can prove that the removing of the interim label was the right move in Baton Rouge. LSU has a considerable amount of talent, just behind Alabama and Auburn and as much as Texas A&M. The Tigers have a chance to win 10 games this year, but there is always that bit of doubt about a new coach. Orgeron has done well as the interim at USC and LSU, but his tenure as head coach at Ole Miss was a major disappointment.

Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee–Both Nashville-area teams played in bowls last year, and this game has become quite the local rivalry. MTSU has one of the top quarterbacks in the Group of 5, who happens to be the coach’s son. Brent Stockstill will draw NFL scouts to Murfreesboro this year, as the Blue Raiders look to have a potent offense capable of putting up 40 points and 500 yards per game. On the other side of the field, Derek Mason has begun to make Vanderbilt look more like Stanford East. The only ingredient missing in recent years has been the most important spot–at quarterback. Now, Vanderbilt has a competent passer, who while not another Andrew Luck or even Keller Chryst, he is competent enough to lead Vanderbilt to the cusp of division contention. Kyle Shurmur, son of Minnesota Viking OC Pat Shurmur, may have the knowledge of the game that a typical NFL quarterback may have. If he can show a bit more arm strength and a slightly quicker release, Vanderbilt’s offense will begin to look like Stanford’s, as the Commodored already have a strong running game and a stingy defense. If MTSU wins this game, then Syracuse and Minnesota will take notice, as the Blue Raiders will be capable of starting 3-0 against FBS competition. If Vanderbilt wins this game, then Kansas State needs to take note, because the Commodores will be 2-0 when the Wildcats come to the Music City on September 16.

Tennessee at Georgia Tech (in Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta)–Volunteer coach Butch Jones knows that he must win and win big in 2017, or else he will have a garage sale in January, where he disposes of a lot of orange-colored clothing and accessories. Tennessee was a disappointing 9-4 team last year and must try to improve with an unproven quarterback, something that usually only works if said raw QB wears crimson-colored clothing. Georgia Tech has an experienced offensive line returning to block for the spread option offense. Usually, if an offensive line is as experienced as the Techsters, the offense automatically improves some from the previous season. However, in this offense, the experience of the quarterback is much more important than the line, because in many cases the key defender at the point of attack is not blocked at all. Hence, the QB reads the defense and options off the reaction of the key defender. Coach Paul Johnson has not officially named his starting quarterback, but we think it will be former slot back TaQuon Marshall. The ultra-quick Marshall has the potential to be a great option quarterback, but getting his Baptism under orange fire is not the ideal way to begin a career. If Johnson goes with last year’s backup Matthew Jordan, then Tennessee’s defense should be good enough to hold the Yellow Jackets under 21 points. This is good, because the Vols may struggle on offense in September.

Note–Ratings and Bowl Projections return next week, as we did not update them after the small sampling of games last week.

Money Line Parlays makes its seasonal debut Thursday morning, August 31, 2017.

2017 Big Ten Preview

We kick off our Power 5 Conference previews today with the Big Ten Conference. While the Big Ten is our lowest rated Power 5 league to begin the season, the margin is miniscule. The number two through five leagues are separated by three points. What hurts the Big Ten is that four teams are below the norm among the entire 130 FBS roster. The other Power 5 leagues have 0, 1, or 2.

Most of the nation’s professional media have Ohio State as the overwhelming pick to win the league, and the PiRates believe the Buckeyes are the clear-cut favorite. However, Ohio State will face very stiff competition from Penn State again this season. The two teams are heavily loaded with talent, and the loser of this game could very well finish the regular season at 11-1 and have a small chance to earn a Playoff bid. The two teams square off in Columbus on October 28.

Michigan is looking at a major rebuilding project with the loss of 10 defensive starters. Having just five starters back on offense isn’t a picnic either, and Coach Jim Harbaugh has an opening game with Florida looming. The next three could come in any order, as Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan State are decent but not great teams. Two of this trio should become bowl-eligible.

The West will once again be competitive this year. Last year, five teams competed for the flag, and the same five should be involved in a hotly contested race this season. Wisconsin begins the year as the highest-rated team, but Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska are all capable of topping the Badgers. The race could end in a multiple-team tie, and 7-2 could even win the division outright yet again.

Jeff Brohm is the new ingredient in the Midwestern cocktail. He takes over a moribund Purdue program and promises to bring excitement to West Lafayette. Purdue has not been a factor for several years now, but the Boilermakers have a storied history as an exciting and innovative program that has pulled off big upsets. Brohm doesn’t have a lot of quality talent to work with in year one, but it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if the Boilermakers ruined a Saturday for a contending team.

Here is how the Big Ten media voted in the preseason poll.

Big Ten–East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Ohio St.	34	260	29
2	Penn St.	7	231.5	4
3	Michigan	1	192	1
4	Michigan St.	0	128	0
5	Indiana	0	114	0
6	Maryland	0	100.5	0
7	Rutgers	0	38	0
Big Ten–West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Wisconsin	31	259	4
2	Northwestern	5	219	0
3	Nebraska	2	176.5	0
4	Iowa	0	164.5	0
5	Minnesota	0	131	0
6t	Purdue	0	57	0
6t	Illinois	0	57	0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings are in close step with the media.

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	132.3	129.1	131.3	130.9
Penn St.	125.3	122.6	125.8	124.6
Michigan	116.5	115.7	115.5	115.9
Indiana	104.3	104.6	104.5	104.5
Maryland	101.8	104.3	101.7	102.6
Michigan St.	95.4	100.1	95.6	97.0
Rutgers	95.5	95.7	94.6	95.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	122.2	118.0	120.7	120.3
Northwestern	113.9	111.3	113.5	112.9
Iowa	111.6	111.2	111.3	111.4
Minnesota	106.8	106.3	106.5	106.5
Nebraska	104.7	106.3	104.0	105.0
Purdue	94.7	97.3	95.4	95.8
Illinois	90.1	92.0	88.4	90.2
Big Ten Averages	108.2	108.2	107.8	108.1

And, here are our not-so-scientific predictions for won-loss and bowl projections.

Big Ten Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
Ohio St.	9-0	13-0	***PLAYOFFS***
Penn St.	8-1	11-1	Cotton
Michigan	6-3	9-3	Outback
Indiana	3-6	6-6	Quick Lane
Maryland	2-7	4-8
Michigan St.	2-7	4-8
Rutgers	2-7	4-8
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
West Division
Wisconsin	8-1	11-2	Citrus
Northwestern	6-3	9-3	Taxslayer
Minnesota	6-3	8-4	Foster Farms
Nebraska	5-4	7-5	Pinstripe
Iowa	4-5	7-5	Holiday
Purdue	1-8	2-10
Illinois	1-8	2-10
Ohio St. to win Big Ten Championship Game
No Big Ten team available for Armed Forces Bowl

 

Trivia: We are going to keep the previous trivia question open for a day or so. If you missed it, here it is again.
In 1918, Georgia Tech beat North Carolina State 118-0. For half a century no Division 1 team scored 100 points on another Division 1 team. In 1949 San Jose State beat New Mexico 103-0, but the Spartans would not become a major college participant until the following season, so this one doesn’t count. The last time a Division 1 team scored 100 points on another Division 1 team was in 1968, when current AAC West member Houston beat current AAC West member Tulsa 100-6.

A Houston wide receiver caught a 25-yard pass for a touchdown in that 100-6 game that made the score 93-6. He later went on to fame in the music business. A Tulsa lineman also became a famous celebrity on television and through his books.

Here are your three trivia questions:
1. Name the Houston Wide Receiver that would become a famous music celebrity.
2. Explain how this wide receiver once performed the National Anthem for a sporting event that was postponed soon after he performed, yet there was no rain, snow, or lightning.
3. Name the Tulsa lineman that became a famous TV celebrity and has used this game as a means to help advance his career.

 

Coming tomorrow: Read our Big 12 preview before you go watch the eclipse.  Is the sun going dark on this once great league, or is there life still in the Big 12?

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Games

Sweet 16

Thursday, March 23
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Oregon	Michigan	-1	-1	-1
Gonzaga	West Virginia	4	2	9
Kansas	Purdue	4	4	1
Arizona	Xavier	4	4	4

 

Friday, March 24
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
North Carolina	Butler	6	6	12
Baylor	South Carolina	3	5	7
Kentucky	UCLA	2	-1	1
Florida	Wisconsin	5	4	-2

 

TV Schedule

Region	Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
Thursday, March 23
Midwest	7:09 PM	CBS	Oregon	vs.	Michigan
West	7:39 PM	TBS	Gonzaga	vs.	West Virginia
Midwest	9:39 PM	CBS	Kansas	vs.	Purdue
West	10:09 PM	TBS	Arizona	vs.	Xavier
Friday, March 24
South	7:09 PM	CBS	North Carolina	vs.	Butler
East	7:29 PM	TBS	Baylor	vs.	South Carolina
South	9:39 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	UCLA
East	9:59 PM	TBS	Florida	vs.	Wisconsin
Saturday, March 25
Midwest	TBA	TBA	Oregon/Michigan	vs.	Kansas/Purdue
West	TBA	TBA	Gonzaga/WVU	vs.	Arizona/Xavier
Sunday, March 26
South	TBA	TBA	UNC/Butler	vs.	Kentucky/UCLA
East	TBA	TBA	Baylor/S Car	vs.	Florida/Wisconsin

 

 

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Sunday, March 18, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Louisville	Michigan	4	3	6
Kentucky	Wichita St.	1	1	8
Kansas	Michigan St.	11	8	1
North Carolina	Arkansas	14	10	8
Oregon	Rhode Island	7	6	4
Baylor	USC	17	9	8
Duke	South Carolina	6	6	5
UCLA	Cincinnati	1	1	-1

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:10 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Michigan
2:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Wichita St.
5:15 PM	CBS	Kansas	vs.	Michigan St.
6:10 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Arkansas
7:10 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Rhode Island
7:45 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	USC
8:40 PM	TNT	Duke	vs.	South Carolina
9:40 PM	TBS	UCLA	vs.	Cincinnati

Morning & Afternoon: Swallow Return to Capistrano

Spring Equinox: Monday, March 20, 2017 @ 6:29 AM EDT

 

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-1	3	1
Baylor	New Mexico St.	11	12	13
Arkansas	Seton Hall	2	1	-1
Oregon	Iona	11	12	10
Louisville	Jacksonville St.	18	18	17
SMU	USC	8	8	4
North Carolina	Texas Southern	22	20	19
Creighton	Rhode Island	4	1	2
Kansas	UC-Davis	22	19	18
Dayton	Wichita St.	-7	-5	-1
Duke	Troy	15	16	14
Cincinnati	Kansas St.	2	5	2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	1	2	-2
Kentucky	Northern Kentucky	19	18	13
South Carolina	Marquette	1	-1	1
UCLA	Kent St.	16	14	10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:15 PM	CBS	Michigan	vs.	Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	New Mexico St.
1:30 PM	TNT	Arkansas	vs.	Seton Hall
2:00 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Iona
2:45 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM	truTV	SMU	vs.	USC
4:00 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Texas Southern
4:30 PM	TBS	Creighton	vs.	Rhode Island
6:50 PM	TNT	Kansas	vs.	UC-Davis
7:10 PM	CBS	Dayton	vs.	Wichita St.
7:20 PM	TBS	Duke	vs.	Troy
7:27 PM	truTV	Cincinnati	vs.	Kansas St.
9:20 PM	TNT	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Michigan St.
9:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM	TBS	South Carolina	vs.	Marquette
9:57 PM	truTV	UCLA	vs.	Kent St.

 

 

 

Conference Tournament Update–Saturday, March 11, 2017

Joining The Field

You might be thinking, “Wait, there were no conference championship games Friday, so how could there be an addition to the automatic bid list?”

It is a technicality issue.  In the SWAC, Alcorn State is ineligible for postseason play, but they were eligible for the conference tournament.  The Braves have made it to the Championship Game of the SWAC Tournament, but they cannot receive a bid to the NCAA Tournament.  Their opponent tonight is Texas Southern, the regular season SWAC champion.  The rules in the SWAC state that if the conference tournament champion is ineligible for the postseason, the regular season champion gets the automatic bid.  Thus, Texas Southern is in the Dance no matter what happens tonight in the conference championship game.

We rarely issue opinions on matters like this, but this one seems obvious.  The conference championship game is now meaningless, and leagues like the SWAC struggle to fill seats in tournament games if they do not put them on the home courts of the higher seeds.  This league does not include all their members in the conference tournament, yet they included an ineligible team.  It seems obvious that the SWAC should have kept Alcorn State out of the conference tournament and allowed Arkansas-Pine Bluff (one of two teams left out) to participate.  That at least would make the Championship Game mean something.

Today’s Schedule

All times Eastern Standard 

America East Conference Tournament Championship — Vermont Hosts
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Vermont	28-5	vs.	3	Albany	21-12	11:00 AM	ESPN2

Vermont has a perfect America East record this year, now at 16-0, as they prepare to host Albany.  The last time these two teams met, Albany took a seven-point first half lead in Burlington, before the Catamounts clawed back into the lead in the second half.  The game was still close with less than four minutes remaining before a big closing run by VU produced a 12-point victory.  David Nichols kept Albany in that game with his three-point shooting, and if the Great Danes are to pull off the upset, they will need to be hot from behind the arc.  Vermont should win its 21st consecutive game and become a feisty lower-seed foe for a second round biggie.

 

American Athletic Conference Tournament Semifinals–Hartford,CT
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	SMU	28-4	vs.	4	Central Florida	21-10	3:00 PM	ESPN2
2	Cincinnati	28-4	vs.	6	Connecticut	16-16	5:00 PM	ESPN2

One might think that SMU and Cincinnati have this tournament semifinals all wrapped up and will face off tomorrow in a rubber game to decide the conference tournament title winner.  Think again.  Central Florida and Connecticut are worthy competitors, and both teams have the ability to pull off upsets.

Cincinnati destroyed UConn both times they played, but the Huskies have a knack for becoming a different team in conference tournament play.  They looked like they were poised for a repeat performance after smashing a good Houston team and ending the Couagars’ hopes of an at-large bid.

Central Florida presents incredible matchup problems with 7-6 behemoth Tacko Fall able to alter gameplans all by himself.  UCF has won six consecutive games, and Coach Johnny Dawkins knows how to use Fall to suck defenders in so that his prime long-range shooters, Matt Williams, B J Taylor, and Nick Banyard, can get open looks.  UCF hit 14 three-pointers in their decimation of Memphis.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Championship–Brooklyn
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	Duke	26-8	vs.	3	Notre Dame	25-8	9:00 PM	ESPN

Neither team was picked by most of the ACC media experts to make it to the championship game of this tournament.  Duke dropped Louisville and North Carolina to make it here, while Notre Dame took care of business against Virginia and Florida St.  Both teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament, so the two are playing for pride and a chance to move up one seed line in the Dance.  Duke won at Notre Dame in their only meeting this year, and this win occurred during Coach K’s absence with Jeff Capel guiding the team.  The Blue Devils had a hot streak in that game, hitting over 50% from the field and an amazing 23 of 24 at the foul line.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Semifinals–Pittsburgh (Duquense)
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9	Davidson	17-14	vs.	4	Rhode Island	22-9	1:00 PM	CBSSN
2	VCU	25-7	vs.	3	Richmond	20-11	3:30 PM	CBSSN

Nervous fans of teams on the Bubble will be watching this league the next two days.  With top-seed Dayton dismissed by Davidson, there are three teams left in this quartet that can burst some bubbles elsewhere.  Rhode Island may have already played itself in to the NCAA Tournament, but Richmond and Davidson must win the automatic bid.  This tournament should be must watch this afternoon if your team still needs some help.

 

Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship–Kansas City
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Iowa St.	22-10	vs.	2	West Virginia	26-7	6:00 PM	ESPN

They hit just 26.7% of their shots, and their press was not very effective yesterday, but West Virginia found a way to beat Kansas State, doing so by dominating on the glass.  Now, the Mountaineers go for the Big 12 Title against an Iowa State team that did not fare well against WVU in two previous tries.

In both games, the Cyclones wore out with fatigue from facing full-court pressure.  WVU went on big runs both times to win by double digits.  ISU might have more fatigue problems tonight, since this is their third game in three days.  The Mountaineers seemed to look a little tired as well last night, but Coach Huggins provided the adrenaline needed to get over the hump.

 

Big East Conference Tournament Championship–New York City
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Villanova	30-3	vs.	6	Creighton	25-8	5:30 PM	Fox

Villanova already knows they will be a #1 seed as they attempt to defend their National Championship, but the Wildcats can secure the overall top-seed with a win over the Blue Jays this afternoon.  Both teams were down a key player when they met most recently, but VU has its key player back now in power forward Darryl Reynolds.  Reynolds has been pulling down the tough rebounds in his three games back, and the Wildcats once again have the look of a Final Four team.

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament Championship–Reno, NV
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	North Dakota	21-9	vs.	3	Weber St.	19-12	8:30 PM	ESPNU

North Dakota swept the season series with Weber State, including the big win back in February that put the Fighting Hawks in control of the Big Sky race.  UND won with their incredible guard tandem of Quinton Hooker and Geno Crandall, and WSU will have to come up with an incredible defensive gameplan to keep UND out of the Big Dance.  The Hawks are hoping a convincing win can help them avoid a layover in Dayton.

 

Big Ten Conference Tournament Semifinals–Washington, DC
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8	Michigan	22-11	vs.	4	Minnesota	24-8	1:00 PM	CBS
2	Wisconsin	24-8	vs.	6	Northwestern	23-10	3:30 PM	CBS

The four teams remaining will not hurt anybody else’s Bubble chances, as they will all receive Dance invitations, but there is still drama remaining in this tournament.  Michigan survived a travel nightmare just to get to this tournament.  Northwestern has never been a factor in this tournament and has not won a Big Ten title of any kind.  Meanwhile, it would make for a terrific championship game tomorrow if neighboring rivals Minnesota and Wisconsin played for the trophy.  It also would give the Big Ten a chance to move a team into the 4-seed line.

 

Big West Conference Tournament Championship–Anaheim
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	UC-Irvine	21-13	vs.	2	UC-Davis	21-12	11:30 PM	ESPN2

The top two seeds split their two regular season meetings, but UC-Irvine thoroughly embarrassed UC-Davis when they met in Irvine last week with the regular season title on the line.  The Anteaters opened the game with a 22-3 lead, and the Aggies never threatened the rest of the way.  UCI connected on 14 treys in that game.

 

Conference USA Tournament Championship–Birmingham, AL
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Middle Tennessee	29-4	vs.	6	Marshall	20-14	8:30 PM	CBSSN

This game might be the most exciting one of the entire day, and the fact that Middle Tennessee might already have done enough to lock up an at-large bid will not take anything away from the excitement this game promises.  Expect the shot clock to play very little factor in this game, as both teams like to push the tempo.

If you like to follow the Houston Rockets with James Harden, Lou Williams, and Eric Gordon playing like thoroughbred race horses, then Marshall is the team for you.  There is a good reason why the Thundering Herd plays like the Rockets, as they are coached by Dan D’Antoni, Mike’s brother.  The Thundering Herd run up and down the floor like UNLV from the 1970’s, but they have one huge Achilles’ Heel.  They cannot rebound very well.  Middle Tennessee is an average rebounding team, but the Blue Raiders swept Marshall in the regular season thanks to spreading the wealth around.  In their most recent game against the Herd, MTSU placed six players in double figures, while a seventh had nine points in a 97-86 win.  Get your popcorn and soda ready for this one, as it will give you two hours of pure viewing pleasure.

 

Ivy League Tournament Semifinals–Philadelphia
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Princeton	21-6	vs.	4	Penn	13-14	1:30 PM	ESPNU
2	Harvard	18-9	vs.	3	Yale	17-10	4:00 PM	ESPNU

We aren’t going to hide our joy over this tournament finally becoming a reality.  The Ivy League plays quality fundamental basketball.  If you play or coach at a lower level and must use sound principles and intelligence for your team to win, this is the league for you to watch.

Princeton aced the field this year with a perfect 14-0 league mark, and if the Tigers knock off rival Penn tonight and then win tomorrow, they should be a 13-seed in the Tournament with a somewhat decent chance to knock off the right type of 4-seed (not West Virginia or Cincinnati).  Having legendary rivals Harvard and Yale play in the second game just makes this inaugural affair perfect.

Harvard took Princeton to the wire in both games, but the Tigers handled the Bulldogs rather easily.  Few fans are giving Penn much chance in this tournament, but they are getting to host this thing at the Palestra, which should give the Quakers about 5-6 points in home court advantage.

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament Championship–Cleveland
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Akron	26-7	vs.	6	Kent St.	21-13	7:30 PM	ESPN2

A February swoon cost Akron any chance of qualifying as an at-large team should they not win the MAC automatic bid.  Included in that fall was a three-point loss at home to Kent State, as the Golden Flashes put an end to the Zips’ 30-game home winning streak.  Akron recovered to win at Kent State last week, so this should be an interesting rematch and close to a 50-50 tossup.

 

Mideast Athletic Conference Tournament Championship–Norfolk, VA (Norfolk St.)
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	UNC-Central	24-8	vs.	2	Norfolk St.	17-15	1:00 PM	ESPN2

UNC-Central has remained unnoticed among the nation’s basketball fans outside of the MEAC, but the Eagles have gone 15-2 in their last 17 games and fared rather well in its road games against the power conference teams.  Should UNCC win and then be forced to head to Dayton, the Eagles would most likely emerge victorious and advance, but a win today coupled with an upset somewhere else could be all that it takes to keep Central out of Dayton.  If Norfolk State pulls off the upset, they can send their laundry to Dayton on the next express out of Norfolk.  It does help that the Spartans get to play this game on their home floor.

 

Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship–Las Vegas (UNLV)
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Nevada	27-6	vs.	2	Colorado St.	28-6	6:00 PM	CBS

These two teams squared off last Saturday in Reno with the top seed in this tournament on the line.  Nevada won by 13, controlling the tempo and going on a big 20-3 run in the middle of the game.  Nevada is a team without a glaring weakness, albeit not on the same page with Kentucky and Oregon.  The Wolf Pack have a lineup similar to SMU in that all five starters can play in the wing positions and can post up inside.  It reminds us a lot of Louisville during Denny Crum’s time when he had big-time stars like Junior Bridgman, Darrel Griffith, Jim Price, and Ron Thomas.

Colorado State plays a muscle power game and tries to grind opponents down.  The Rams rely on senior guard Gian Clavell to score points, and when his shots are off, CSU can struggle to score.  In the Rams’ favor tonight is the fact that they just played Nevada a week ago and know what they are going to face, as there has not been time to tweak the gameplans all that much.

 

Pac-12 Conference Tournament Championship–Las Vegas
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Oregon	29-4	vs.	2	Arizona	29-4	11:00 PM	ESPN

Our Red-White-Blue Ratings that we will not publish today actually indicate that this game is a true tossup.  In fact, two of the ratings show the spread at 0!  The top two seeds met just once in the regular season, and Oregon used a 36-9 run in the first half to put the game away quickly.  The Ducks have the top home court advantage in America, so the 27-point margin of victory can be tossed out the window, and you can give the Wildcats a little more incentive to seek revenge tonight.  However, we think the Ducks have the better roster, and that gives Oregon the slight edge.

 

Southeastern Conference Tournament Semifinals–Nashville
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Kentucky	27-5	vs.	5	Alabama	19-13	1:00 PM	ESPN
7	Vanderbilt	19-14	vs.	3	Arkansas	24-8	3:20 PM	ESPN

Vanderbilt played its way into the NCAA Tournament with its third win over Florida.  The Commodores should be able to avoid a First Four game in Dayton as well.

Alabama has the potential to give Kentucky all it can handle.  Had the Tide hit their free throws in their one contest against the Wildcats, they could have won their regular season game in Tuscaloosa.  This is Nashville, and the last time we checked, Nashville was about halfway between these two schools’ campuses, but it will look more like Rupp Arena this afternoon as the Music City is crawling with Royal Blue clothed tourists up and down Broadway and in Hatty B’s Hot Chicken.

Arkansas and Vanderbilt played two close games this year, with the visiting team winning both times.  Since the Commodores won at Bud Walton, Arkansas has been a different team.  The Razorbacks have won seven of eight games, including a road victory over South Carolina.

 

Southland Conference Tournament Championship–Katy, TX (Greater Houston area)
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	New Orleans	19-11	vs.	2	Texas A&M-CC	20-10	9:30 PM	ESPN2

Disclaimer: We cannot preview this game in an impartial manner.  We will not withhold the secret that we are rooting like crazy for Coach Willis Wilson to guide TAMCCU to the Big Dance.  A finer man in the coaching business does not exist, and Wilson has not been given the accolades that should have been afforded to him.  The Rice alum coached at his alma mater for 18 years, taking the Owls to the near edge of NCAA qualification only to come up a tad short, having to make do with the NIT.  Trying to win at Rice is extremely tough, as the high-academic standards and having to be the number two team in the city of Houston did not help the Owls recruit players to Main Street, where on a sunny day, more folks turn out to the zoo across the street than come to the Rice basketball games.

Wilson has built up the TAMCCU program to the point where the Islanders have made consecutive trips to the CIT, as Stephen F. Austin dominated the league under former coach Brad Underwood.  Tonight, the Islanders have their best shot at making the Dance, where they have been just once before, back in 2007.

New Orleans also has a nice story that needs to be told.  The basketball program shut down after the 2009-2010 season and stayed dark for two seasons before re-emerging as one of the final two teams to play as an independent (Cal State Bakersfield is the other).  The Privateers have had a somewhat storied history with a bevy of excellent coaches working in the Crescent City (Ron Greene, Butch van Breda Kolff, Bennie Dees, Tim Floyd, and Buzz Williams).  They have made it to four NCAA Tournaments, albeit none in the last 20 years, and they actually have won Dance win over BYU in 1987.  There will be emotions running wild on both sides tonight, so check this game out if only for a little bit of your time.

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament Championship–Houston
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Texas Southern	22-11	vs.	2	Alcorn St. *	18-13	6:30 PM	ESPNU
*	Alcorn St. is ineligible for the postseason. Texas Southern earns automatic bid win or lose tonight.

We have already spoken about this game and the fact that it does not matter if TSU wins or loses, since they already own the automatic bid.  However, it will help the Tigers to win this game, because we believe they will definitely avoid Dayton with a win tonight, and they could be punished and sent to Dayton if they lose.

The game should be entertaining and nip and tuck, as TSU had difficulty beating Alcorn twice this year, once by a bucket, and once in overtime.  Unfortunately, the one player that might have made a difference for the Tigers against a power conference team, muscular forward and former SWAC POY Derrick Griffin, decided to leave school to prepare for the pro draft–not the NBA, but the NFL, where he stands a good chance of being drafted as a mighty big receiver target.

 

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Semifinals–New Orleans
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	UT-Arlington	25-7	vs.	4	Texas St.	19-12	12:30 PM	ESPN3
2	Georgia St.	20-11	vs.	6	Troy	20-14	3:00 PM	ESPN3

There are some Bracketologists that believe UT-Arlington will have done enough to get an at-large bid if they beat Texas State this afternoon and lose tomorrow, but 12 of our 13 Bracketology Gurus beg to differ.  The Mavericks are the team to beat in this tourney, but the other three teams don’t fear UTA.  In fact, Texas State and Troy both know they can beat the top seed, as they did so convincingly during the regular season.  Still, UTA is a team that defeated Saint Mary’s and had a double-digit lead at Arkansas before the Razorbacks nipped them in the final minute.  If the Mavericks win the automatic bid, it would not surprise us at all if they move up to a 12-seed, the one seed that has become the seed of upsets.

 

Western Athletic Conference Tournament Championship–Las Vegas
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Cal St. Bakersfield	22-8	vs.	2	New Mexico St.	27-5	11:00 PM	ESPNU

When we think of Bakersfield, we think of the “Bakersfield Sound” that produced stars like Merle Haggard, Buck Owens, and Jean Shepard.  Our founder also thinks of some great Bakersfield Dodgers baseball teams in the Class A California League that produced future Dodgers stars like Ron Cey, Steve Yeager, Doug Rau, Eric Karros, Pedro and Ramon Martinez, John Wetteland, and Mike Piazza.

Others might think of all the farmland in and around the area or the giant arch just off Highway 99.  Basketball does not come to mind when one thinks of Bakersfield.  Yet, the Roadrunners, under former Ole Miss coach Rod Barnes, are just one win away from making their second consecutive trip to the Big Dance.

It will be no cakewalk tonight for the top-seeded Roadrunners.  Their opponent is a formidable foe, and New Mexico State might even be considered the favorite in this game.  The teams match up favorably well, and this looks like a championship game where if they played a best of seven series, it would go seven games.

CSUB has one big disadvantage tonight.  The Roadrunners were forced to play an extra half last night, when Utah Valley took them to 4 overtimes.  The Roadrunners shot less than 30% from the field, gave up an astronomical 68 rebounds to Utah Valley, and they still won, because they forced the Wolverines into committing 28 turnovers and stole the ball 11 times.

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Gurus Update for Saturday AM

1. Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2. Kentucky, Oregon, Duke, Arizona
3. Baylor, Louisville, West Virginia, Florida St.
4. UCLA, Notre Dame, Butler, Minnesota
5. Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa St., SMU
6. Virginia, Purdue, Wisconsin, Creighton
7. Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Wichita St.
8. Virginia Tech, Miami, Northwestern, VCU
9. Arkansas, South Carolina, Dayton, Oklahoma St.
10. Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Michigan St., Seton Hall
11. Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Wake Forest, USC
12. UT-Arlington, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Kansas St., Syracuse
13. Vermont, Princeton, Akron, Bucknell
14. East Tennessee St., Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Winthrop
15. Iona, Texas Southern, Northern Kentucky, UC-Irvine
16. South Dakota St., UNC-Central, Jacksonville St., Texas A&M CC, North Dakota, Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes

Seton Hall

Providence

Vanderbilt

Xavier

Last Four In–Headed to Dayton

Wake Forest vs. USC

Kansas St. vs. Syracuse

First Four Out

Rhode Island–can jump into the field with a win Saturday

Illinois State

California

Alabama–we jumped the Tide up here, because they are the only team still playing with a chance to move up.  All others in this spot have no chance to make the field and have no games left to play (Illinois, Iowa, Houston, TCU, Georgia, Indiana)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Best of the Best and Where They Might Be Vulnerable–2nd Edition

A month ago, we showed you a couple dozen top college basketball teams’ advanced statistics and then tried to examine through those stats where each team might be vulnerable.  We found vulnerability with every team to some extent, so it is obvious that there is no clear-cut favorite to win the NCAA Championship.  The days of UCLA having a 95% chance of winning the title have come and gone.  The team with the most chance of winning it all this year might have something like a 7-8% chance of winning it all, while up to 20 teams may have 4% chances of cutting down the nets at University of Phoenix Stadium in The Valley of the Sun.

In our second edition of the Best of the Best, we see only minor changes from before.  While we hope all of you regularly read our little project, we know this is not so.  Therefore, we will bring the newcomers up to speed on how we operate here on the PiRate ship.

First, we are math geeks.  We have linear and boolean algebra experts helping us out, and our founder is an amateur mathlete and a professional in baseball analytics.  Fret not; you do not have to know algebra to enjoy this site.  We have done all the calculations.  We will show you some of the formulas that we use to come to our conclusions, but it won’t be on the test.  You get an A+ if you just show up (maybe that’s why we don’t teach at Cal Tech or M.I.T.).

The PiRates are proponents of the Four Factors in basketball.  We have found that with a little different emphasis in each of the factors, this set of data can be applied to the NBA, College, High School, Middle School, and even the kids’ youth leagues (although if somebody is using Four Factors’ data to coach a 5th and 6th grade team, they need to reconsider why they are coaching at all).

The Four Factors can really be considered Eight Factors, because they can be used to rate teams’ offense and defense.  When you subtract the defensive factor from the offensive factor in each of the four stats, you get a Four Factors margin (just like when you subtract points per game allowed from points per game scored, you get scoring margin).

Here are the Four Factors.  If you just want this week’s results, skip down to “BEST OF THE BEST”

1. Effective Shooting Percentage
2. Turnover Rate
3. Offensive Rebounding Rate
4. Free Throw Rate

1. Effective Shooting Percentage: (FG+(0.5*3pt))/FGA

The difference between regular field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage is that you count all made three-pointers as 1.5 made field goals.  So, if a team hits 25 of 55 shots and makes 6 three-pointers, their EFG% is: (25+(6*.05))/55 which equals 50.9%.

The defensive equivalent uses the same formula, and the difference between the offensive and defensive EFG% is the EFG% margin.

2. Turnover Rate (TOV/100 Possessions not including offensive rebounds)

The TOV Rate is the number of turnovers committed per every 100 possessions (and forced per 100 possessions for the defensive factor).  You can accurately measure possessions in college basketball by using the following formula.

FGA+(.475*FTA)+TO-Off. Rebounds

However for TOV Rate, we remove the offensive rebounds because it skews the rate.  When a team gets an offensive rebound, they almost always get another shot attempt and do not hold the ball long enough to commit additional turnovers at the same rate that they do in a possession not involving an offensive rebound.

If a team commits 14 turnovers in a game in which they had 69 possessions but with 8 offensive rebounds, their TOV Rate for the game is: 14/61, which comes to 23%

3. Offensive Rebound Rate: (Off. Rebounds/(Off. Rebounds + Opponents’ Def. Rebounds)

This is basically the percentage of offensive rebounds a team retrieves off its own missed shots.  If a team has 35 total missed shots in a game where a rebound is then retrieved by one team or the other, and they finish with 8 offensive rebounds, their Offensive Rebound Rate is: 8/35, which comes to 22.9%.

The defensive counterpart to this is Defensive Rebound Rate.  If a team’s opponent has 38 total missed shots in a game where there were rebounds retrieved by one team or the other, and the opponent finished with 6 offensive rebounds, then the team’s defensive rebound rate is: 6/38, which comes to 15.8%.  The rebound rate margin would be: 22.9-15.8 or 7.1%.

If you count the two examples, in standard parlance the better rebounding team won the battle of the boards 40-33.

4. Free Throw Rate 

The basketball math experts disagree on how to calculate this rating.  Some believe that just getting fouled is all that matters, since each foul makes it one foul closer to an opposing player becoming disqualified.  Others believe that this rate should be the percentage of free throw attempts to field goal attempts.  Others say, it should be made free throws per field goal attempts.

We disagree with these beliefs.  These numbers can easily become skewed when a team plays enough close games with the lead in the final minutes.  Said team may not attempt another field goal, while the opponent fouls them on purpose to stop the clock and hope this team misses foul shots.

Let’s say Florida leads South Carolina, Alabama. Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee by a few points in every game as the clock reaches 2 minutes.  These other teams foul the Gators’ players on purpose in hopes that the shots will be missed, and they can come down the floor and hit buckets to win the game or force overtime.

At the same time, Kentucky plays these same five teams and leads by 20 with 2 minutes to play.  These opponents do not need to foul at this point, as the reserves are ready to come in and try to get in the scorebook.  Are we to believe that Florida is a more effective free throw shooting team, simply because their opponents can still win in the final 2 minutes, so they will purposely foul, while there would be no use in fouling Kentucky with the Wildcats up 20.

So, what is the answer?  We must admit that there is no way to fully eliminate the intentional fouling in multiple close games, but at least we reduce it as much as possible.  And, we use made free throws to at least show that it is important to make them, especially in those close games.

We go with: (FT/100 Possessions) and this time we include offensive rebounds, because defenses frequently foul following an offensive rebound.

If a team makes 17 foul shots in a game in which they had 71 possessions, their Free Throw Rate is 17/71, which is 23.9%.

 

Now What

We take the stats (offense and defense) for each team we evaluate.  We have an algorithm (formula) that we use that gives different weight to each of the factors.  The weights differ depending on whether it is NBA, NCAA, High School, Middle School, or Youth.  Turnover margin matters less in the NBA than it does in college, and it matters more the lower you go down, until by the time you reach the 5th and 6th grade, it is the most important factor of all (so if you coach 5th and 6th grade basketball, you should do what you can to force as many turnovers as possible and then create the fastest offense you can have so as not to commit too many turnovers–think about a 10-second offense).

Now, you should have picked up on the apparent weaknesses of the Four Factors for college basketball.  By now, you have probably thought that Gonzaga’s stats might look a lot better than Wisconsin’s stats, because the Bulldogs play a much weaker conference schedule than the Badgers.  We use the strengths of schedule for every team to adjust their factors to a point where we hope we have found a happy midpoint to show what each teams’ stats might be against average competition.

Also, think about a team that plays 18 home games, 4 neutral site games, and 9 road games, versus another team that plays 14  home games, 3 neutral site games, and 14 road games.  We adjust for this as well.

As a point of fact, we treat schedule strength and ability to win away from home (nobody plays at home in the Big Dance) as importantly as a good horse handicapper treats class in a horse race.  The mid-major and low-major teams are like claiming and allowance horses, while the power leagues are like stakes-racing horses.  North Carolina is the horse that runs in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, while Cal State Bakersfield is still a maiden until it wins its small track maiden claiming race at WAC Downs.  We know which horse is going to finish ahead of the other as long as it does not throw his jockey.  The stakes horse finishes 20 lengths ahead.

R+T

The last component in our best of the best look is something we trademarked at the PiRate Ratings.  R+T is a combination of rebounding, turnovers, and steals.  It reveals how many extra shooting opportunities a team might have against any type of opponent.  To have a really good R+T number, a team must be equally competent in rebounding, forcing turnovers while not committing many, and by getting steals.

The formula is: (Rebound Margin * 2) + (Steals per Game * 0.5) + (6 – Opponents’ Steals per Game) + (Turnover Margin)

If a team has an R+T rating better than 20, then they can overcome a cold shooting night and still win an NCAA Tournament game over a team with an R+T rating below 10.  If a team has an R+T rating in the 28-35 range, they will be very difficult to beat if they also come from a power conference and wins consistently away from home.  If you find a team from one of the top leagues with an R+T over 28 and said team wins 75% of its games away from home, you have a team that frequently wins four games and makes the Final Four.

To the contrary, if you find a team that looks really good on paper, and they have a gaudy won-loss record, but their R+T rating is under 8, watch out.  All it takes is one cold shooting night or one hot shooting night from the opponent. and this team can go home.

And, if you find a power league team with a negative R+T rating, give great consideration toward picking the Cinderella underdog to pull off the upset in the Big Dance.  A majority of the higher seed power conference teams with negative R+T ratings actually lose in their first tournament game.  It does not happen that often, but ask Georgetown fans about Florida Gulf Coast and Virginia Commonwealth.  Ask Vanderbilt fans about Siena, Richmond, and Murray State.  Ask Purdue fans about Arkansas-Little Rock.  In all these cases, the favorite had a lousy R+T rating, while the underdog had decent or even very good R+T ratings.  The low R+T teams can win in the regular season against lesser-quality teams, but in the Big Dance, that stuff doesn’t cut it.  It is vital to get extra scoring opportunities while limiting them to your opponents.

Now it’s time for the reveal.

BEST OF THE BEST

We look at 28 teams this week.  As before, we have selected three mid-major teams as possible upset winners in an opening game if they get the right draw.  We do not include #1 Gonzaga as a mid-major.

We are listing these teams alphabetically.  The first four columns have already been adjusted using our algorithm.

Team	FG	TO	OR	FT	SOS	R+T	Road  W-L%	Poss/G
Arizona	3.3	0.1	1.1	1.0	57.8	18.3	75.00	66.9
Baylor	4.7	-0.4	1.4	0.3	61.7	17.3	72.73	65.6
Butler	1.8	1.0	0.1	0.2	60.4	9.4	66.67	67.7
Cincinnati	5.0	1.0	0.7	0.0	54.9	18.0	70.00	67.1
Creighton	5.6	0.5	-0.7	0.2	57.3	4.2	90.91	72.9
Duke	4.1	0.4	0.7	0.7	58.5	15.1	63.64	70.7
Florida	3.3	1.1	0.5	0.8	59.4	13.3	77.78	71.5
Florida St.	4.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	58.8	13.4	50.00	73.4
Gonzaga	8.5	0.5	0.6	0.7	54.3	20.1	100.00	70.9
Kansas	4.2	0.2	0.7	0.1	59.9	12.1	83.33	72.6
Kentucky	3.2	1.1	0.9	0.4	60.2	17.7	72.73	76.6
Louisville	3.7	1.0	1.2	0.1	61.0	19.9	66.67	69.6
Middle Tenn.	3.1	1.0	0.9	-0.3	50.9	16.3	84.62	66.3
North Carolina	2.1	0.8	2.6	0.6	59.1	31.6	61.54	74.2
Notre Dame	3.2	0.7	-0.4	0.3	58.1	5.2	54.55	68.7
Oklahoma St.	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.1	59.6	13.4	58.33	73.9
Oregon	5.2	0.6	0.7	0.5	58.4	15.6	63.64	69.6
Purdue	5.5	-0.3	1.3	0.8	56.6	18.0	72.73	71.2
SMU	3.9	0.5	2.2	0.7	54.0	26.7	63.64	63.7
South Carolina	2.4	1.3	0.5	-0.2	56.8	11.4	70.00	71.4
St. Mary’s	5.8	-0.2	2.0	0.3	54.0	20.7	90.00	60.4
UCLA	6.7	0.0	0.0	0.3	52.5	10.3	83.33	75.2
UNC-Wilm.	2.0	1.3	0.6	-0.3	50.2	12.4	73.33	72.7
Villanova	5.2	0.4	0.4	0.9	57.9	13.9	85.71	65.8
Virginia	5.3	1.1	0.9	-0.2	59.8	17.0	66.67	61.8
West Virginia	2.6	2.7	0.7	0.2	55.4	20.9	63.64	73.9
Wichita St.	5.5	1.0	1.5	0.5	49.8	23.6	75.00	70.5
Wisconsin	3.3	0.8	1.8	0.4	54.1	22.4	72.73	65.9

Vulnerabilities

Arizona: The Wildcats do not have the look of a Final Four contender at this point.  They do not have a glaring weakness, but their strengths lack muscle.  Their TO and OR numbers would be adequate if they had a better EFG% margin, but teams with their resume seldom win four games in the NCAA Tournament.  They do have a decent road win-loss record, and it includes a win at Pauley Pavilion.

Baylor: The Bears are very vulnerable to pressure defenses, as their game against West Virginia showed.  BU turns the ball over just a little too much and then does not force many turnovers on their defensive end.  A strong schedule predicts that they should slide through to the Sweet 16, but after that point, any pressure defense from a quality team is going to make the going tough for BU.

Butler: In December and early January, it looked like this Bulldog edition could contend for a deep run in the Dance.  Now, it looks more like Butler could be a team to watch out for an opening game upset.  They might handle pressure defenses better than most other tournament teams, but the Bulldogs lack enough rebounding strength and do not shine in the EFG% department.  It may be a stretch for this team to make the Sweet 16, and it is 50-50 as of now whether they can get to the Round of 32 if they fall to a 5-seed.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats are somewhat of a mystery.  They looked like an Elite 8 team and Final Four contender until they took a trip to Dallas, where SMU stopped the UC offense and won an ugly contest.  It’s a good bet that the Bearcats and Mustangs will meet again in the AAC Championship Game.  If Cinti enters the Big Dance playing at their peak, then the Bearcats should move on to the Sweet 16 with a chance to advance past that if they get a good draw and do not have to face a North Carolina, Villanova, Florida, or Oregon, teams with the right type of offense to hurt the Bearcats.

Creighton: This one is cut and dry.  The Blue Jays look like a team that will lose its first game in the NCAA Tournament.  They do not rebound the ball well enough to advance, and their R+T is the lowest of the 28 teams we have featured today.  We expect Creighton to go home quickly in the Dance, and a team like Monmouth, Wichita State, Middle Tennessee, or Bucknell could possibly dominate them in the Round of 64.

Duke: Coach K is back on the sideline, and there is going to be some silent gossip going around that he might be thinking about retiring.  So, his players might pick up on this and play the best they can play.  It won’t take much for this team to move into the Final Four discussion.  Duke is a better version of Arizona this season.  The Blue Devils’ numbers are just enough better to move from a Sweet 16 to an Elite 8 and better team.  The one thing that bothers us is that Duke has not always been sharp away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Florida: A month ago, we considered Florida a two and out team at best.  The Gators have started to turn things around this year, and their numbers are improving as the season continues.  They are not West Virginia when it comes to pressure defense, but they are better than most of the rest in that regard.  A dominant rebounding team may give the Gators fits.  An exceptional record away from home and a tough schedule indicates that the Gators are a force to be reckoned with and a Final Four contender this year.

Florida St: The Seminoles have begun to swoon a bit, and with every successive road game in the ACC, they look more vulnerable than the previous game.  Winning big at home and then losing on the road does not lead to a lot of success in the NCAA Tournament.  However, a few well-timed ACC road wins and a run in the ACC Tournament could give FSU a resume not that different than that of Duke..

Gonzaga: In case you didn’t know, technically a West Coast Conference team has won the NCAA Championship before.  When San Francisco won back-to-back championships in 1955 and 1956, they were a member of the California Basketball Association, which would be renamed the West Coast Athletic Conference in 1957.  This Bulldog team is different from others that did not make the Final Four, namely they are quite strong defending in the paint and then preventing offensive rebounds.  Opponents do not shoot the ball with much success against the GU defense, while the Bulldogs have a strong shooting offense.  However, they have yet to face a really quality pressure defense, and they could be somewhat vulnerable to a West Virginia, Florida, or even a South Carolina.

Kansas: This is not Bill Self’s best Kansas team, but if you watch this Jayhawk team play, you can see a winning attitude, where KU seems to find a way to win games.  A strong schedule and very successful road record tells us that Self definitely has a Final Four contender.  We think that the Jayhawks will meet their match in an Elite 8 matchup, because teams with this resume seldom get lucky more than once, and KU may need a little luck against other power teams.

Kentucky:  Don’t underestimate John Calipari’s ability to get a bunch of 5-star players to play cohesively as a team.  It isn’t easy.  The Wildcats could easily become a group of future first round picks that do not hustle, and even let up so as not to suffer an injury just before the draft.  Then again, this team has had bouts of inconsistency.  When the players are on their game, there are few teams (maybe no other teams) that can match up with them on talent alone.  When they are acting like they have ADHD, they are vulnerable even to mediocre .500 teams.  We won’t dismiss, Cal’s kids, because their resume says they have Final Four numbers.  They also have the fastest pace of any team that will be in the Dance, and they could wear opponents down.

Louisville: A little dissension can become a lot of dissension in a hurry, and recent troubles involving players on this team could come back to hurt the Cardinals.  UL looked like a team headed to Spring Break in their loss to Virginia when not at full strength.  When they are on their game, they are the best team in the Commonwealth, and that says they are a Final Four contender.

Middle Tennessee: The top mid-major team will not be overlooked this year, when they trounced Michigan State in the opening game last year.  The Blue Raiders are a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016, so it is not unthinkable to say they are a sweet 16 contender.  Their pressure man-to-man defense creates a lot of turnovers with easy scoring opportunities thanks to some quick perimeter players.  Their big liability is their schedule strength, as it is too low for a team to think about advancing past the sweet 16.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels looked like the best team by far back before New Year’s.  They still look like one of the best, but their EFG% margin has fallen a bit too much, while their incredible rebounding prowess has weakened a little.  We are not saying that UNC is doomed to lose in a big upset, but we are saying they could fall in a mild upset, but not until the Elite 8 round.  If we had to choose one team with the absolute best resume of a national champion, North Carolina would be surely be one of those teams in the discussion thanks to the Heels owning the best R+T rating; they are the only team with an R+T in excess of 28.  It will take a team that can shoot lights out from outside and put up a good fight inside to beat UNC, but there are a half-dozen or so teams this year that can do it.

Notre Dame: For the same reason as Creighton, we do not see a deep run for the Fighting Irish this year.  They cannot hold their own on the backboards, and they do not dominate teams in the field goal department.  and, they are not a team capable of forcing a lot of turnovers.  Their current R+T is the second worst in this field.  They do not look like a sweet 16 team.

Oklahoma St.: Brad Underwood was not supposed to get the Cowboys to the Dance in year one in Stillwater.  We’re not sure this OSU team could beat Underwood’s Stephen F. Austin team from last year, but the Cowboys have improved their resume the most in the last month.  If they continue to improve, then they will be a dangerous team in mid-March.  When Underwood gets his type of player on campus, watch out!

Oregon: Which Oregon team will show up in March–The team that beat Arizona by a million points, or the team that blew a 19-point lead to UCLA?   If basketball were all about shooting and defending the shot with no rebounding or turnovers, the Ducks would be a national title contender.  Still, this team would not surprise us if they cruise to the sweet 16 and survive to the elite 8 like last year.

Purdue: In past years, Gene Keady coaching tree members have under-performed in the NCAA Tournament, and they all share something in common.  These coaches stress half-court defense and prefer not to pressure the ball and play in the passing lanes.  They train their players to play smart and not take many chances, trying to win a game one possession at a time.  These coaches should have become football coaches.  In the NCAA Tournament, a team needs to have a way to get extra shooting opportunities, when they run up against an opponent that can shoot better than they can.  Purdue has its best chance in a long time to break that bad streak this year, not because the Boilermakers can force a lot of turnovers (which they cannot).  PU is such a dominating rebounding team that they can get those extra chances by taking multiple shots per possession.  We think PU has its best shot to get past the first weekend to the sweet 16 and maybe elite 8.  Still, the Boilermakers are not in the same class with the final four contenders.

SMU: Tim Jankovich served as an assistant under multiple NCAA Tournament coaches including two that have championship rings–Bill Self and Larry Brown.  Jankovich has a sleeper in Dallas this year.  SMU excels in all four phases of the game.  A schedule that is on the lower side of strength when compared to ACC, Big 12, and SEC teams, and a road record that is not indicative of winning 4 NCAA Tournament games probably foretells an exit in the Sweet 16 or round of 32.

South Carolina: Just getting to the NCAA Tournament after a long drought should be enough for Gamecock fans this year.  USC does not possess a Final Four resume, and it is debatable if what they have is strong enough to predict a sweet 16 appearance.  Their R+T is 11.0, which is okay in the first game and better than average for a second game, but the entire range of data puts them in the same boat as Arizona.

St. Mary’s: In a typical year, the Gaels might be considered the darling of the best of the rest conferences.  SMC has advanced to the sweet 16 before, and it would not be a major shock if they do so again this year with an incredible defense, a decent group of rebounders, and a tough road team.  Like Gonzaga, they do not have an overwhelmingly strong schedule.

UCLA: The Bruins can shoot an opponent out of a gym in two minutes, but other than that, they do not shine in the other departments.  They play better on the road than they do at home, and they play at a pace that can cause a lot of problems for teams that do not have a lot of depth or conditioning.  However, in the Big Dance, most teams have ample supplies of both as well as competent defenses.  Because UCLA cannot rebound or force turnovers well enough, this does not look like their year.  A run to the sweet 16 could be bumpy, and if they sons of Westwood make it that far, they should be an underdog in that game.

UNC-Wilmington: The Seahawks are starting to fade, and now it is only a 50-50 chance they will win the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament and earn a spot in the NCAA field.  A month ago, they were on par with Middle Tennessee as the top mid-Major threat.  This is the one team in this field that is hurt by fouling too much, and it comes because the players are getting hurt when opponents break their pressure defense.  Still, UNCW could recover and be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament.  They have the confidence.

Villanova: The last team to repeat as National Champions was Duke in 1992 and 1993.  Before that, you have to go back to UCLA in 1967-68-69-70-71-72-and 73.  The Wildcats could be the next one to do it, because this team is even better than last year’s champion.  VU wins on the road against quality competition, and while they are not exceptionally strong in the R+T department, they are adequate.  The Wildcats will have trouble with a Kentucky, West Virginia, or even against a Middle Tennessee or Wichita St.  However, we expect VU to be in the elite 8 with a chance to make it back to the Final Four.

Virginia: Teams that play like Virginia seldom win the NCAA Tournament.  They always seem to run up against a team that can score on a couple of cheap baskets, and they cannot make up the difference in the remaining amount of time.  UVA has good numbers in all but their free throw rate.  The Cavaliers have played a tough schedule, but we do not believe they can win four games against NCAA Tournament-caliber teams.  We expect the Cavs to be put out as early as the second game and most likely in the sweet 16.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers are going to embarrass their early round opponents, possibly winning their first two games by a combined 50 points.  Then, they are going to run into trouble in either the sweet 16 or elite 8, when they face a team that does not wilt to their defensive pressure and one that can dominate them on the glass.  WVU’s biggest liability is that they don’t shoot the ball all that well.  They can still beat an average team while having an awful shooting night, because they can get 10 extra good shooting opportunities.  A team like Kentucky or North Carolina will turn the tables and embarrass the Mountaineers.

Wichita St.: The Shockers shocked the world with a Final Four trip and then shocked the world the following year by going undefeated in the regular season with a team that looked like it could contend for the title.  WSU ran up against an underrated Kentucky team that advanced to the national title game.  This year’s team is somewhere in between those two teams from their past.  Coach Greg Marshall has a team with no apparent weakness.  The only fly in the ointment is that this team has played a weak slate, and it is going to come back to haunt them when they face a power conference opponent like Duke or Baylor.

Wisconsin: The Badgers are the Midwest version of Arizona this year.  They have decent numbers in all respects, and they have played well on the road.  However, the Big Ten is definitely down this year.  We do not see a repeat of a couple years ago for the Badgers.  UW is no better than a sweet 16 team for now.

 

 

The Pirate Ratings Bracketology Gurus Report For February 6, 2017

In the height of the Vietnam War, a slogan went around the nation that became a bumper sticker and was emblazoned on t-shirts. It went, “Suppose they gave a war and nobody came?” The slogan became so popular that it became a movie starring Tony Curtis and a cast of popular actors and actors from the late 1960’s.

Suppose they gave a 68-team tournament and 50 teams not deserving of the honor accepted invitations? While the former slogan led to a funny movie, the latter slogan will lead to a diluted NCAA Tournament this season. Back in the 1960’s, there was no set number of teams invited to the NCAA Tournament, or as this writer remembers it, “The UCLA Invitational.” The tournament would invite 22, 23, 24, or 25 teams in those days, depending on how many they felt deserved the invitations. You had automatic qualifiers from the major conferences of the day, which numbered about 17, and then there were about 50 independent teams.

In some years, just five independents had resumes worthy of playing in the tournament. In others, a dozen teams were worthy, but the NCAA maxed out the number at 25, so only eight of the dozen received bids.

The best conferences, by virtue of their won-loss record in the most previous tournaments, received byes in advance of the tournament selection, meaning they began in the Sweet 16. The ACC, Big Ten, Big Eight, SEC, and Pac-8 (AAWU) basically retained byes every year, whereas the Southwest Conference, Missouri Valley, Southern, Middle Atlantic and other strong conferences of the day had to begin in an opening round (play-in) to make the Sweet 16.

There were many years when top 10 teams did not get into the NCAA Tournament, and even a year where the arguably number two team did not get in. Only the conference champions made the NCAA Tournament of that time, and a number two team many times was good enough to be a Final Four contender but had to settle for the NIT or nothing at all.

In 1971, Southern Cal went 24-2 with multiple future NBA stars on their roster. Unfortunately, the two Trojan losses came to number one UCLA. USC stayed home in the postseason as a top 5 team.

The NCAA Tournaments in those days had its share of blowout games, especially when UCLA played their Sweet 16 game. The old PCAA or WCAC (two leagues that no longer exist) provided fodder for the Bruins. Frequently, the opponent would stall in the pre-shot clock days, but it did not matter, as the Bruins would win 50-39 over a lightweight that never had a chance.

What can we take from the current and the past and plan something better for the future? The 1971 USC’s should not have been punished for being the possible second best team in the nation and not having a postseason to continue playing. However, inviting a team that finished in the bottom half of their league standings to the tournament is just as wrong. Why invite a team that goes 7-11 in league play and finishes the regular season at 19-14? This team doesn’t even deserve to be in the NIT.

There are roughly 20 teams every year that really deserve to be on the national stage when the title is on the line. Sure, you have your upsets, but when a #15 upsets a #2, all that has done has removed a really good team from the later part of the tournament. The #15 almost always goes down by a large number in the next game.

And, yes, a George Mason, Butler, and Virginia Commonwealth makes a deep run every five or so years. So, there are some good low-major teams that occasionally deserve to be on display.

How best can the fans and teams be serviced so that the really good teams do not have to go through a gauntlet of low-major opponents, but at the same time, have a system in place that allows the low majors to compete?

We at the PiRate Ratings have been toying with an idea for a couple of years, refining it a little each year. Here is how we believe the tournament could be changed to make it more exciting for the low major teams, while at the same allows the major conference teams to face off without having to go through a low-major opponent first.

Here’s how we would do it, and it would add four additional teams to bring the total to 72:

Divide the NCAA Tournament into two brackets
1. An upper bracket with the 24 best teams from the major conferences (AAC, ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC). The national champion has come from teams in these conferences every year since UNLV won in 1990.

2. A lower bracket that includes the 25 conference champions from the remaining conferences plus the 23 best remaining teams, regardless of their conference.

3. The upper bracket 24 would play one round to reduce to 12 teams, each seeded 1-2-3 in one of the four regionals

4. The lower bracket 48 would be seeded into 4, 12-team sections or subregionals to the upper bracket regionals. The top four teams in each subregion would receive byes to the second round, while the 5-12 teams in the four regions would play in the first round.

5. The four regions would go from 12 to 8 to 4 to 2 to 1.

6. The winners of the four regions would then join the 12 upper bracket winners to make the Sweet 16.

7. Each region would have one “cinderella” and three power conference teams remaining.

8. The power 24 would have to win five times to become the national champion, while the other 48 would have to win seven or eight games depending on seed, but at least four of these teams would now make the Sweet 16 every year and win three or four tournament games.

Let’s use some pretend teams as an example for the 2019-20 season.
Let’s say that Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 and enters the Big Dance at 30-4. They are seeded #1 in the Midwest Regionals in Kansas City. At the same time, Virginia finished in fourth place in the ACC with an overall 26-8. They are seeded #6 in the Midwest. Oklahoma State and Virginia would face off, and the winner would advance to the Sweet 16. The #2 and #5 teams and #3 and #4 teams would play in this same region in a triple header. The other three regions would do the same #1 vs. #6, #2 vs. #5, and #3 vs. #4.

A week earlier, the lower bracket would start play. Let’s say your team is the Summit League champion South Dakota who finished the regular season as probably the best low major team with an overall record of 31-3. They are seeded number one in the lower bracket Midwest Sub-region. They get a bye, while #5 seed Northern Iowa (25-9) plays #12 seed UT-Arlington (an upset winner in the conference tournament and just 14-18 overall). Northern Iowa then trounces UTA and advances to play South Dakota. South Dakota proceeds to beat Northern Iowa. They follow it up with two more victories over mid-majors to win the Midwest Sub-region and advance to the Sweet 16. They face Oklahoma St. in the next round.

We have heard other possibilities like moving the top 8 conferences into a super league with the top 16 teams from this group facing off in playoffs similar to the NBA playoffs. How would you like a best of 7 North Carolina-Kansas finals instead of one game? Might a 7-game series between these two teams or Kentucky vs. Villanova, UCLA vs. Duke, or any other series final between dynasty schools shatter all types of viewer records?

Back to the present–the above is just a pipe dream, but sometimes the dreamers create something incredible for the world. Let’s look at the 2017 NCAA Tournament contenders. Conference Championship Fortnight is fast approaching.
ONE BID LEAGUES

America East
Vermont 10-0/20-5
Stony Brook 8-2/13-10
UMBC 7-3/16-7

The Vermont winning streak has now stretched to a dozen games following two double-digit victories during the week. The Catamounts close with four home games, one road game against a weak conference foe, and one road game against UMBC. If they win out to improve to 29-5 by Selection Sunday, it would not be a push to see the Catamounts seeded as high as 11. They have no major wins, but they competed against teams that will be in the Dance.

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast 8-1/19-6
Lipscomb 7-2/15-11
South Carolina St. 5-4/15-11
North Florida 5-4/10-16
Kennesaw St. 5-4/11-14

The top two teams have pulled away from the pack with a couple of really good weeks of actions. FGCU has won five games in a row, while Lipscomb’s winning streak is now four games. FGCU has the best defense in the league, while Lipscomb has the best offense. The Eagles have been here before and even made the Sweet 16 under former coach Andy Enfield. As for the Bisons, they have made the NIT and CIT in the past, but the last time they played for a chance to win the national title was win they were the Duke of the NAIA.

Big Sky
Weber St. 9-1/14-7
Eastern Washington 8-3/16-8
North Dakota 8-3/13-8
Idaho 7-4/12-10

Weber St. has now won 12 of 13 games, and if they keep winning and earn the automatic bid, the Wildcats may be able to avoid having to begin in Dayton. Weber St. leads the nation in 3-point percentage at 43.1%, and they don’t lead by taking a conservative amount of bombs. They make almost 10 per game. Senior guard Jeremy Senglin has hit close to half of his three-pointer, and he leads the Wildcats with a 21-point average. A weak rebounding frontcourt will doom WSU against the big boys, and you can never fully count on three-point shooting to carry you through a conference tournament, so keep an eye on the other contenders in this league.

It counts as just one win, but Eastern Washington comes off an historic record-breaking night. The Eagles met Portland State Saturday and played a triple overtime affair that ended with a 130-124 victory. Teammates Jacob Wiley and Bogdan Bliznyuk did something that may never again be replicated: they both scored 45 points in the game, while combining for 27 rebounds. They also both played 53 of a possible 55 minutes, and EWU could be vulnerable in the second half of their next game at North Dakota on Thursday. Second place will be on the line.

Big South
Winthrop 10-2/18-5
UNC-Asheville 10-2/18-7
Liberty 10-2/15-10

What was once an automatic given that UNC-Asheville would win the conference in both the regular season and the postseason conference tournament has now become anything but that. This is the best three-team race in the low-major conferences, and there is no clear choice as to which team is best. UNCA still has home games with the other two contenders, so the Bulldogs may have a slight advantage for the top seed. In this league, the number one seed gets to play at home throughout the tournament.

Big West
UC-Davis 6-2/14-9
UC-Irvine 6-3/13-12
Cal State Northridge 6-4/10-13
Hawaii 5-4/11-11 is ineligible

No Big West team has played consistently enough to make much noise in the Big Dance this year. UC-Davis lost to a 6-win Cal Poly team last week. Irvine has dropped three games in a row. Northridge fell at home to a Hawaii team that all of a sudden looks like the best team in the league but one that cannot compete for the bid due to ineligibility. Senior guard Noah Allen has been hot as of late, scoring at a better than 23 points per game clip in the most previous seven contests.

Colonial
UNC-Wilmington 10-2/21-4
College of Charleston 10-2/19-6
Elon 7-5/15-10
Towson 7-5/15-10
William & Mary 7-5/13-10

A couple weeks ago, UNCW was close to earning a spot on the bubble if they needed an at-large invitation to the Dance. However, the Seahawks have hit a rough patch, losing by 18 at William and Mary, and then dropping a home game to Charleston due to a late defensive lapse that allowed Charleston to get a basket and foul shot at the end to win the game.

Now, this has become a definite one-bid league. Neither Wilmington nor Charleston can improve their resumes enough to move into contention to become a bubble team. In fact, neither co-leader can be considered a heavy favorite to win the conference tournament, because there is some quality in the next group of teams, as William and Mary’s domination of Wilmington proves.

Conference USA
Middle Tennessee 10-1/20-4
Louisiana Tech 8-3/16-8
Old Dominion 7-4/14-9
UAB 7-4/14-10

Middle Tennessee was in the same, or even better, boat as UNCW. If the Blue Raiders had won out in the regular season, there would have been a fair chance that they could have still gotten into the field of 68 if they had been upset in the CUSA Championship Game. Losing to UTEP has basically popped MTSU’s bubble. If they want another chance to upset a big team like they did last year when they raced past Michigan State, they will have to win the conference tournament.

This year, there is a lot of quality talent all the way down to the 10th place team, so the conference tournament is going to be quite interesting. Keep and eye on two teams well back in the pack that could gel into winning units in March. Marshall tends to wear teams down in the second halves of games, and they could take advantage of their helter-skelter philosophy against an inferior conditioned opponent in the semifinals and finals of the tournament. Western Kentucky has under-performed to date, and the Hilltoppers could decide to put it together when they arrive in Birmingham for the conference tourney.

Horizon
Valparaiso 9-2/19-5
Green Bay 9-3/15-9
Oakland 8-4/18-7

Here is one more league where the leader was positioning for at-large contention, but like the previous two conference leaders, Valpo went down hard at Green Bay on Saturday, losing by 17 points. If the Crusaders win out from here but lose in the Horizon League Championship Game, they would be 28-6 with one win over a team that was in the top 25 (Rhode Island) at the time they played. A case could be made for Valpo, but we believe politics would send a power conference team into the Dance ahead of the Crusaders.

Ivy
Princeton 5-0/12-6
Yale 5-1/13-6
Harvard 4-2/12-7
Columbia 4-2/10-9

Mark it down–the four top teams above have basically already clinched the four spots in the inaugural Ivy League Tournament at the Palestra in Philadelphia. There is still time for the two-loss teams to catch Princeton for the top seed, but it really matters very little how the four teams will be seeded on a neutral floor that will not have the home team Penn Quakers present. The winner of the automatic bid should be a quick out this year, as none of the Ivy League teams have exceptional and experienced talent. Harvard has the most talent, but their top two players are inconsistent freshmen.

Metro Atlantic
Monmouth 11-2/19-5
Iona 9-4/16-8
Saint Peter’s 8-5/12-11
Canisius 7-6/14-10
Siena 7-6/10-14

This year’s Monmouth team is a little less talented overall than the one that deserved to be an at-large team last year. However, the 2017 Hawks may get the opportunity to play in the NCAA Tournament as the MAAC champion, when last year’s team was capable of winning a game or two or three. This year’s team would have to be hitting on all cylinders to win a game.

The path to the Dance is not a simple one for Coach King Rice and his team. Their old nemesis, Iona, is playing the best basketball of any league team at this time, and Monmouth still has to pay a visit to New Rochelle, where Monmouth ended a long Gael home winning streak last year. Iona then won at Monmouth and beat Monmouth again in the MAAC Tournament finals.

St. Peter’s has given Monmouth fits this year. The Peacocks bested Monmouth by 10 in Jersey City, and they almost completed the sweep before losing in OT at Monmouth Friday night.

Mid-American
Akron 9-1/19-4
Ohio 6-4/14-7
Ball St. 6-4/14-8
Northern Illinois 6-4/14-9
4 others at 5-5

Akron is the favorite to win the conference tournament, but the Zips are only marginal favorites in a league where teams from just off the lead tend to win the conference tournament. The team nobody wants to see in its bracket is Central Michigan, because if the Chippewas are hot, they can shoot teams out of the gym in a matter of a couple minutes. No other Division I team in recent memory has had two 5-9 guards in the starting lineup. Also, no other DI has had a player averaging over 30 points per game and another at more than 20 per game. In CMU’s case, the two 5-9 guards are the two high scorers in question. Marcus Keene tops 30 points per game, while Braylon Rayson tops 20. Keene has the lone 50-point game in NCAA play this year.

Mideastern Athletic
North Carolina Central 7-1/16-6
Morgan St. 7-2/10-12
Norfolk St. 7-2/10-13
Savannah St. 7-3/10-13 is ineligible

UNC-Central and Norfolk St. continued to extend lengthy winning streaks last week, with UNCC’s hitting seven games and NSU’s reaching six. We believe that UNC-Central has the capability of pulling off a major upset in the NCAA Tournament if they can win the conference tournament and move up to a #15 or even #14 seed. The Eagles play tough half-court defense; they hold their own on the boards for a team that is more of a ball-hawking defense. Most of all, they have held their own against power conference teams, winning at Missouri and almost winning at Ohio State and LSU.

Mountain West
Boise St. 8-3/15-7
Nevada 7-3/18-5
Colorado St. 7-4/15-9
New Mexico 7-5/14-10

Leon Rice is a poor man’s Mark Few. The Boise State coach has made the Broncos a consistent big winner in his seven years in The Potato Republic. Had the Broncos been able to hold onto a lead against Oregon earlier in the season, they could be on the bubble, as they did beat SMU in the pre-conference schedule.

Nevada was 16-3 a couple weeks ago, which included a double-digit win at Boise State, but the Wolfpack have cooled off in the last fortnight. Coach Eric Musselman does not look like a former NBA head coach due to his height (5-7) and his weight (150), but he makes up for it with his brain (Einsteinian). When Musselman left assistant positions at Arizona State and LSU, the teams regressed quite a bit from the way they were when he was there. In just a year and a half in the biggest little town in America, the biggest little coach has proven that he is ready for a big contract reward at a big power conference school.

Northeast
Mount St. Mary’s 10-2/12-13
St. Francis PA 8-4/11-12
Fairleigh Dickinson 8-4/10-13
Long Island 7-5/14-11

It will be close to a miracle if the eventual champion of this league avoids an opening round game in Dayton. At the moment, the top of the league is swooning, while the middle of the pack is gaining. It should make for an excellent conference tournament that is up for grabs, but it also should make for a quick exit for the eventual champion when the center jump circle logo changes from NEC to NCAA. Although the tournament is played at the higher seeded home courts, the home court advantanges in this league are not all that advantageous.

Ohio Valley
Belmont 11-0/17-4
Morehead St. 7-3/11-12
UT-Martin 7-4/17-9
Jacksonville St. 7-4/15-11
Murray St. 6-4/12-12

Belmont has run away with the regular season race, as the Bruins have a commanding 3 1/2 game lead in their division. The Bruins have won 13 games in a row, and their four losses are to Vanderbilt, Florida, Rhode Island, and Middle Tennessee. Belmont cannot get in as an at-large team, as they have not beaten a top 50 team. The Bruins have outscored their conference foes by more than 13 points per game, so it will take either a monumental effort by a rival or a total collapse by the Bruins (and maybe both) for another team to get the automatic bid. The Bruins know how to get to the Dance; they have been there seven times in the last 11 years. One of these years, they are going to upset somebody with their hot inside-outside shooting. Belmont has led both Duke and Virginia in the second half of NCAA Tournament games, and they have won at North Carolina, so they will not feel intimidated in the Dance.

Patriot
Bucknell 10-1/18-6
Boston 8-4/13-11
Navy 8-4/13-11
Lehigh 7-5/13-10

Like Belmont, Bucknell has been the dominant team in their league. Additionally, the Bison have two NCAA first round wins (Arkansas and Kansas) in this century. This year, Bucknell has wins at Vanderbilt and at home against Richmond, but that is not enough to merit at-large consideration.

Lehigh beat Bucknell in Lewisburg, so the home court advantage that goes to the top seed is not that strong. In fact, Bucknell has been the top seed five times in the last six years and only twice won the conference tournament. Overall, the top seed has won just half of the conference tournaments in this century.

Southern
Furman 9-2/16-8
East Tennessee St. 8-2/18-5
Chattanooga 8-3/17-6
UNC-Greensboro 8-4/17-8

This league is undervalued this year. The top four contenders all have enough talent to get past a higher-seed in the Round of 64, and it would not be a major surprise if the SoCon representative sneaks into the Sweet 16.

ETSU has the resume of the team with the most chance of winning in the Big Dance, as the Buccaneers have no real weaknesses. Coach Steve Forbes, a former assistant to Bruce Pearl at Tennessee, has his team playing with the same hustle that made the Volunteers an SEC power during his time in Knoxville. ETSU has a nice rebounding advantage over their opponents, but the key to their exceptional defense and fast break comes from the pressure defense that allows the Bucs to steal eight passes a night.

Chattanooga has not yet played up to its potential, as former star Casey Jones has not returned to the form that made him the best player in the league prior to a season-ending injury last year. At the time, Jones had an unbelievable 6 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. This year, he has more turnovers than assists.

Southland
Sam Houston St. 8-3/17-7
New Orleans 8-3/13-9
Stephen F. Austin 7-4/12-11
Lamar 6-4/14-9

The co-leader can hear footsteps. With Brad Brownell no longer lurking on the sidelines at SF Austin, it appeared that somebody else would win the SLC for a change. When SFA began the season at 1-2 in league play and 6-9 overall, the Lumberjacks were dismissed as a rebuilding team with a new coach that needed seasoning.

Since then, SFA is 6-2, and all of a sudden the Lumberjacks are just one game behind the top two. The top two must still play the Lumberjacks before the SLC Tournament begins, so the top seed is definitely up for grabs.

Southwestern Athletic
Texas Southern 9-1/13-10
Southern 6-4/10-13
Alcorn St. 7-3/10-11 is ineligible
Under former Indiana and UAB head coach Mike Davis, Texas Southern has won either the regular season or SWAC tournament four consecutive years, so it should come as no surprise that the Tigers are the class of the league once again this year. TSU is 0-6 in NCAA Tournament history, and unless they receive a ticket to Dayton to play in the Opening Round, they are likely to fall to 0-7, if they make it back this year.

Summit
North Dakota St. 7-3/15-8
Denver 7-4/15-9
South Dakota 7-4/16-10
Omaha 6-5/13-11
Fort Wayne 5-5/16-8

North Dakota State has come back to the pack with successive losses. The most recent one was at home to South Dakota in a game that was not close following an 18-0 USD run in the first half. This should be an entertaining conference tournament, and current fifth place team Fort Wayne has shown that this league has merit. They are mediocre in league play, but the Mastodons beat Indiana out of conference. This could be the league with the best overall home court advantage in college basketball.

Sun Belt
Arkansas St. 8-2/17-6
Georgia St. 8-2/15-7
Georgia Southern 8-2/15-8
UT-Arlington 7-3/17-6
Texas St. 6-4/13-9
Coastal Carolina 6-4/11-12

Georgia State and Arkansas State have long winning streaks (7 & 6 respectively), but the two teams are only slight favorites to make it to the final round of the SBC Tournament. The SBC Tournament will take place in New Orleans, and it will be a truly neutral site. UTA has the big non-conference win, as the Mavericks’ 14-point win at St. Mary’s might look really good if the Gaels beat Gonzaga in Moraga this weekend.

Western Athletic
New Mexico St. 8-0/22-2
Cal State Bakersfield 6-1/15-7
Grand Canyon 4-3/15-9 is ineligible as a transitioning team to D1.

Just how good is New Mexico State? The Aggies have very little competition in the WAC this year, and NMSU could easily run the table to the Big Dance. At 30-2, their resume would have very little to elevate the Aggies up to a single-digit seed. They did trounce Arizona State in Tempe, but that is not a big deal this year. The Aggies will get a shot in the arm soon when guard Sidy N’Dir returns to action following a ligament tear early this year. If N’Dir can return close to form, NMSU could be a dangerous dark horse against an unsuspecting higher seed.

ONE OR TWO BID LEAGUE
Missouri Valley
The Missouri Valley Conference comes in as a split decision this week among our gurus. Of the 12 participating contributors, six had the MVC as a one-bid league, while six had two teams making the Dance.

Wichita St. 11-1/21-4
Illinois St. 11-1/19-5

If you looked at the scoreboard late Saturday night or Sunday, and you saw the score of the rematch between Wichita State and Illinois State, you might be thinking we are crazy that ISU is still in the discussion. If you didn’t see the result, Wichita embarrassed the Redbirds to the tune of a 86-45 pasting. The Shockers opened an early second half 30-point lead and then extended it to 40 with 2:41 remaining in the game.

So how can Illinois State still be in the discussion? First of all, margin of victory does not count, which is why you will see that Clemson is still a Bubble team after losing by even more to Florida State yesterday. Second, ISU is still tied for first in a league that has had a recent Final Four participant and undefeated number one team entering the NCAA Tournament. And, should the two teams keep winning and meet for a rubber match in the finals of Arch Madness, the loser of that game would definitely be in the mix. Finally, there just are not a lot of great middle of the pack teams in the major conferences this year. It is a lean year, so the MVC has a good chance at sending two teams to the Field of 68.

MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES
American Athletic
In
Cincinnati 10-0/21-2
SMU 10-1/20-4

Contending
Houston 7-4/16-7
Memphis 7-4/17-7

Atlantic 10
In
Dayton 8-2/17-5
VCU 8-2/18-5

Contending
Richmond 8-3/14-9
Rhode Island 7-3/15-7

Atlantic Coast
In
North Carolina 9-2/21-4
Florida St. 8-3/20-4
Louisville 7-3/19-4
Virginia 7-3/17-5
Syracuse 7-4/15-9
Duke 6-4/18-5
Notre Dame 6-5/17-7
Virginia Tech 5-5/16-6
Miami 5-5/15-7
Clemson 3-7/13-9

Contending
Wake Forest 5-6/14-9
Georgia Tech 5-6/13-10
North Carolina St. 3-8/14-10

Big 12
In
Kansas 8-2/20-3
Baylor 7-3/20-3
West Virginia 6-4/18-5
Iowa St. 6-4/14-8
TCU 5-5/16-7
Kansas St. 5-5/16-7
Oklahoma St. 4-6/15-8

Contending
Texas Tech 4-6/16-7

Big East
In
Villanova 9-2/22-2
Xavier 7-3/17-6
Creighton 7-4/20-4
Butler 7-4/18-5
Marquette 6-5/15-8

Contending
Seton Hall 4-6/14-8
Georgetown 4-7/13-11

Big Ten
In
Wisconsin 9-1/20-3
Maryland 8-2/20-3
Purdue 8-3/19-5
Northwestern 7-3/18-5
Michigan St. 6-4/14-9
Minnesota 4-6/16-7
Indiana 5-6/15-9

Contending
Michigan 4-6/14-9
Illinois 3-8/13-11

Pacific 12
In
Oregon 10-1/21-3
Arizona 10-1/21-3
UCLA 8-3/21-3
USC 7-4/20-4
California 8-3/17-6

Contending
Utah 6-5/16-8

Southeastern
In
South Carolina 9-1/19-4
Florida 8-2/18-5
Kentucky 8-2/18-5
Arkansas 6-4/17-6

Contending
Alabama 6-4/13-9
Tennessee 5-5/13-10
Auburn 4-6/15-8
Georgia 4-6/13-10

Here is the consensus field of 68 from our Gurus

Seed	Team	Conf.
1	Villanova	B E
1	Gonzaga	WCC
1	Kansas	B12
1	Baylor	B12
2	Louisville	ACC
2	North Carolina	ACC
2	Florida St.	ACC
2	Oregon	P12
3	Arizona	P12
3	Kentucky	SEC
3	Virginia	ACC
3	West Virginia	B12
4	UCLA	P12
4	Wisconsin	BTen
4	Cincinnati	AAC
4	Florida	SEC
5	Butler	B E
5	Creighton	B E
5	Duke	ACC
5	Purdue	BTen
6	Maryland	BTen
6	South Carolina	SEC
6	St. Mary’s	WCC
6	Xavier	B E
7	Notre Dame	ACC
7	Northwestern	BTen
7	SMU	AAC
7	USC	P12
8	Virginia Tech	ACC
8	Iowa St.	B12
8	Dayton	A10
8	Minnesota	BTen
9	VCU	A10
9	Michigan St.	BTen
9	Oklahoma St.	B12
9	Marquette	B E
10	Kansas St.	B12
10	Middle Tennessee	CUSA
10	TCU	B12
10	Indiana	BTen
11	Clemson	ACC
11	Wichita St.	MVC
11	Miami	ACC
11	UNC-Wilmington	CAA
12	Arkansas	SEC
12	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	California	P12
12	Nevada	MWC
12	Akron	MAC
12	Vermont	AEast
13	Monmouth	MAAC
13	Valparaiso	Horiz
13	Illinois St.	MVC
13	Syracuse	ACC
14	Belmont	OVC
14	Princeton	Ivy
14	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun
14	Arkansas St.	SBC
15	Bucknell	Pat
15	East Tennessee St.	Sou
15	Winthrop	BSth
15	North Dakota St.	Summ
16	Texas Southern	SWAC
16	Sam Houston St.	SLC
16	Weber St.	BSky
16	UC-Davis	BWst
16	UNC-Central	MEAC
16	Mount St. Mary’s	NEC

The Last 8 In

TCU

Indiana

Clemson

Miami

Arkansas

California

Illinois St.

Syracuse

 

First Four Out

Seton Hall

Michigan

Wake Forest 

Texas Tech

 

Dayton Bound

Arkansas vs. Miami

California vs. Clemson

Weber St. vs. Mount St. Mary’s

UNC-Central vs. UC-Davis