PiRate Ratings College Football–October 5-8, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Central Florida	SMU	4.9	6.3	5.4
Rutgers	Nebraska	1.8	1.0	0.1
Memphis	Houston	-1.0	0.4	-1.4
Nevada	Colorado St.	6.5	7.5	6.4
San Jose St.	UNLV	2.8	5.3	4.1
Georgia Tech	Duke	2.9	0.4	3.2
Maryland	Purdue	-0.4	0.6	1.2
Virginia	Louisville	-7.5	-6.4	-8.3
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	6.1	4.6	5.8
Indiana	Michigan	-22.1	-21.8	-24.7
Bowling Green	Buffalo	3.4	-0.1	0.4
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	18.6	17.1	19.0
Georgia	Auburn	26.5	26.5	29.0
Boston College	Clemson	-18.0	-16.6	-19.3
Massachusetts	Liberty	-23.0	-24.0	-27.2
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-17.0	-16.9	-19.5
Kentucky	South Carolina	6.8	8.2	8.0
North Carolina St.	Florida St.	7.3	6.7	7.6
Kansas	TCU	-9.0	-9.2	-10.6
Florida	Missouri	6.0	7.0	7.0
Cincinnati	South Florida	23.6	24.4	26.2
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	7.1	6.6	8.3
Miami (O)	Kent St.	3.3	3.6	5.0
Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	8.4	8.7	9.5
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-15.9	-16.4	-17.5
Wake Forest	Army	15.2	14.8	14.9
Arkansas St.	James Madison	-7.6	-8.1	-11.4
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	-0.7	0.3	-0.4
Boise St.	Fresno St.	4.9	4.8	5.1
Ohio	Akron	9.9	11.7	11.9
Utah St.	Air Force	-9.4	-9.4	-9.7
Arizona	Oregon	-13.9	-13.3	-13.4
USC	Washington St.	10.8	10.6	10.9
UCLA	Utah	-6.3	-5.5	-6.5
Arizona St.	Washington	-4.6	-5.9	-5.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	-3.1	-4.9	-5.7
Louisiana-Monroe	Coastal Carolina	-10.3	-11.4	-12.8
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	-20.1	-17.4	-20.1
LSU	Tennessee	0.8	-0.1	-0.4
Tulane	East Carolina	3.4	3.3	2.4
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	13.8	13.8	13.5
Oklahoma	Texas	2.1	2.0	3.4
Alabama	Texas A&M	25.0	23.6	25.3
Troy	Southern Miss.	6.9	7.0	8.3
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	4.5	4.8	3.5
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-12.3	-10.6	-12.7
Illinois	Iowa	-1.1	0.7	-0.6
Navy	Tulsa	-4.0	-4.2	-5.3
Central Michigan	Ball St.	8.9	9.8	11.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	1.9	1.2	0.4
UAB	Middle Tennessee	12.1	11.3	12.4
UTSA	Western Kentucky	1.5	0.5	-0.3
Florida Int’l.	Connecticut	-13.8	-12.1	-13.2
Louisiana Tech	UTEP	-3.2	-1.7	-4.5
New Mexico	Wyoming	2.1	0.3	-0.2
Notre Dame	BYU	3.1	3.0	3.6
San Diego St.	Hawaii	25.2	23.6	24.9

Oklahoma-Texas played in Dallas / Notre Dame-BYU played in Las Vegas

No FBS vs. FCS Games This Week

Teams With Byes This Week

Baylor

California

Charlotte

Colorado

Florida Atlantic

Louisiana

Marshall

Minnesota

New Mexico St.

North Texas

Old Dominion

Penn St.

Rice

South Alabama

Syracuse

Temple

West Virginia

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	132.2
2	Ohio St.	131.3
3	Georgia	130.2
4	Michigan	124.4
5	Clemson	119.3
6	Utah	118.7
7	Minnesota	118.7
8	Oklahoma St.	118.4
9	Tennessee	118.0
10	Penn St.	116.7
11	NC State	116.1
12	T C U	115.4
13	Oklahoma	115.2
14	Ole Miss	115.2
15	Purdue	115.2
16	Mississippi St.	115.1
17	L S U	115.1
18	Arkansas	113.8
19	Baylor	113.6
20	Oregon	113.2
21	Notre Dame	112.8
22	Texas	112.7
23	Maryland	112.6
24	U S C	112.6
25	Iowa	112.6
26	Cincinnati	112.4
27	Kentucky	112.2
28	Kansas St.	112.1
29	Florida St.	111.9
30	Wisconsin	111.1
31	Pittsburgh	110.7
32	Texas A&M	110.6
33	Miami (Fla.)	110.6
34	Michigan St.	110.5
35	U C L A	109.7
36	BYU	109.5
37	Illinois	109.2
38	Washington	109.2
39	Iowa St.	108.9
40	Wake Forest	108.5
41	Louisville	108.2
42	Syracuse	108.2
43	North Carolina	108.1
44	Oregon St.	107.8
45	Texas Tech	107.7
46	South Carolina	107.6
47	Florida	106.7
48	UCF	106.5
49	West Virginia	106.0
50	Auburn	105.8
51	Washington St.	104.9
52	SMU	104.0
53	Missouri	103.1
54	Kansas	102.8
55	Air Force	102.4
56	Nebraska	101.6
57	Tulane	101.4
58	East Carolina	101.3
59	Houston	101.2
60	Arizona St.	100.9
61	Boise St.	100.8
62	Stanford	100.2
63	W. Kentucky	100.2
64	Rutgers	99.6
65	Appalachian St.	99.3
66	Fresno St.	98.9
67	California	98.8
68	Indiana	98.5
69	Boston College	98.4
70	Virginia	98.3
71	Memphis	98.1
72	Liberty	98.0
73	U T S A	97.8
74	James Madison	97.8
75	Tulsa	97.2
76	U A B	97.1
77	Georgia St.	96.6
78	Arizona	96.6
79	Coastal Carolina	96.5
80	Toledo	96.4
81	Northwestern	96.2
82	Army	96.0
83	Troy	95.2
84	N. Illinois	95.0
85	Virginia Tech	94.9
86	Marshall	94.6
87	Duke	94.2
88	Vanderbilt	94.0
89	Georgia Tech	93.9
90	South Alabama	93.3
91	San Jose St.	93.2
92	Miami (Ohio)	93.1
93	San Diego St.	93.0
94	Central Mich.	92.5
95	Louisiana	92.3
96	U N L V	92.2
97	Kent St.	91.1
98	Western Mich.	91.0
99	Ga. Southern	90.8
100	USF	90.7
101	Southern Miss.	90.3
102	Utah St.	89.9
103	Navy	89.6
104	Old Dominion	89.3
105	Florida Atlantic	87.9
106	Middle Tennessee	87.7
107	Colorado	87.5
108	Buffalo	87.4
109	U T E P	86.8
110	North Texas	86.5
111	Wyoming	86.4
112	Arkansas St.	86.2
113	Bowling Green	86.1
114	Nevada	85.6
115	Rice	85.6
116	Ohio	85.4
117	Ball St.	85.0
118	Eastern Mich.	84.7
119	New Mexico	84.2
120	UL-Monroe	82.5
121	Colorado St.	81.8
122	Louisiana Tech	81.2
123	Temple	80.8
124	Connecticut	80.4
125	Texas St.	80.1
126	Charlotte	79.6
127	Akron	76.3
128	Hawaii	71.4
129	New Mexico St.	71.3
130	Massachusetts	71.2
131	Florida Int’l.	64.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	112.1	111.6	113.6	112.4
UCF	106.1	106.8	106.7	106.5
SMU	104.3	103.4	104.3	104.0
Tulane	101.7	101.1	101.3	101.4
East Carolina	101.2	100.8	101.9	101.3
Houston	101.5	100.6	101.6	101.2
Memphis	98.0	98.5	97.7	98.1
Tulsa	97.3	96.7	97.5	97.2
USF	91.5	90.2	90.4	90.7
Navy	90.2	89.5	89.2	89.6
Temple	80.8	82.8	78.7	80.8
AAC	98.6	98.3	98.5	98.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.3	119.1	119.6	119.3
NC State	116.5	115.5	116.3	116.1
Florida St.	112.2	111.8	111.8	111.9
Wake Forest	108.6	108.4	108.5	108.5
Louisville	109.0	108.0	107.8	108.2
Syracuse	109.0	107.9	107.6	108.2
Boston College	98.3	99.5	97.3	98.4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	111.7	110.5	109.9	110.7
Miami (Fla.)	111.1	109.9	110.7	110.6
North Carolina	108.1	108.3	107.9	108.1
Virginia	99.0	99.1	96.9	98.3
Virginia Tech	95.6	95.8	93.4	94.9
Duke	94.1	96.4	92.0	94.2
Georgia Tech	94.6	94.3	92.8	93.9
ACC	106.2	106.0	105.2	105.8
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma St.	118.9	117.5	118.9	118.4
T C U	116.0	114.8	115.4	115.4
Oklahoma	115.7	114.6	115.3	115.2
Baylor	114.2	113.1	113.6	113.6
Texas	113.6	112.7	111.8	112.7
Kansas St.	112.8	111.5	112.1	112.1
Iowa St.	109.0	108.8	108.8	108.9
Texas Tech	108.0	106.7	108.4	107.7
West Virginia	106.4	106.0	105.7	106.0
Kansas	104.0	102.6	101.8	102.8
Big 12	111.8	110.8	111.2	111.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	131.5	130.2	132.2	131.3
Michigan	124.8	123.7	124.7	124.4
Penn St.	116.9	116.9	116.5	116.7
Maryland	112.7	112.7	112.6	112.6
Michigan St.	111.5	110.3	109.7	110.5
Rutgers	100.9	99.9	97.9	99.6
Indiana	99.7	98.9	97.0	98.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	118.9	118.2	118.9	118.7
Purdue	116.0	115.1	114.3	115.2
Iowa	113.6	112.4	111.7	112.6
Wisconsin	111.7	111.1	110.5	111.1
Illinois	109.5	110.1	108.1	109.2
Nebraska	102.2	101.9	100.8	101.6
Northwestern	96.4	97.5	94.8	96.2
Big Ten	111.9	111.3	110.7	111.3
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	99.5	99.5	101.6	100.2
U T S A	98.0	97.0	98.3	97.8
U A B	96.7	96.7	97.9	97.1
Florida Atlantic	87.6	88.7	87.4	87.9
Middle Tennessee	87.1	87.9	88.0	87.7
U T E P	86.8	86.6	86.9	86.8
North Texas	86.4	85.7	87.5	86.5
Rice	85.6	85.5	85.6	85.6
Louisiana Tech	81.1	82.4	79.9	81.2
Charlotte	79.6	80.2	79.0	79.6
Florida Int’l.	64.4	67.0	63.0	64.8
CUSA	86.6	87.0	86.8	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	113.2	111.6	113.5	112.8
BYU	110.1	108.6	109.9	109.5
Liberty	96.8	98.4	98.7	98.0
Army	95.9	96.1	96.1	96.0
Connecticut	80.7	81.6	78.8	80.4
New Mexico St.	70.9	72.8	70.2	71.3
Massachusetts	71.8	72.4	69.5	71.2
Independents	91.3	91.6	91.0	91.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.5	94.0	93.7	93.1
Kent St.	90.3	92.4	90.7	91.1
Buffalo	85.9	88.4	88.0	87.4
Bowling Green	86.8	85.8	85.8	86.1
Ohio	84.2	86.4	85.7	85.4
Akron	76.2	76.8	75.8	76.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	95.5	96.5	97.1	96.4
N. Illinois	94.9	95.2	95.0	95.0
Central Mich.	91.0	92.8	93.6	92.5
Western Mich.	90.5	91.3	91.2	91.0
Ball St.	84.6	85.6	84.8	85.0
Eastern Mich.	84.6	85.1	84.2	84.7
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Air Force	102.1	102.1	103.0	102.4
Boise St.	100.9	100.1	101.5	100.8
Utah St.	89.8	89.7	90.3	89.9
Wyoming	85.3	87.3	86.6	86.4
New Mexico	84.5	84.6	83.4	84.2
Colorado St.	81.6	82.4	81.6	81.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	99.0	98.3	99.5	98.9
San Jose St.	92.4	93.2	94.0	93.2
San Diego St.	93.1	92.6	93.1	93.0
U N L V	92.6	90.9	92.9	92.2
Nevada	85.1	86.8	85.0	85.6
Hawaii	70.9	72.1	71.3	71.4
MWC	89.8	90.0	90.2	90.0
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	118.4	117.7	120.2	118.7
Oregon	113.6	112.9	113.0	113.2
U S C	112.0	112.6	113.3	112.6
U C L A	109.1	109.2	110.7	109.7
Washington	108.6	109.3	109.7	109.2
Oregon St.	107.8	107.1	108.4	107.8
Washington St.	104.2	105.0	105.4	104.9
Arizona St.	100.9	100.5	101.4	100.9
Stanford	101.7	99.3	99.7	100.2
California	98.4	98.5	99.6	98.8
Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.6	96.6
Colorado	88.6	86.7	87.3	87.5
Pac-12	105.0	104.6	105.4	105.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	130.3	128.9	131.3	130.2
Tennessee	117.8	117.9	118.2	118.0
Kentucky	111.6	112.3	112.8	112.2
South Carolina	107.9	107.1	107.7	107.6
Florida	106.1	107.6	106.5	106.7
Missouri	103.1	103.5	102.5	103.1
Vanderbilt	94.2	95.0	92.7	94.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	132.0	131.2	133.4	132.2
Ole Miss	116.3	114.5	114.8	115.2
Mississippi St.	115.8	114.6	115.0	115.1
L S U	115.6	114.8	114.8	115.1
Arkansas	114.3	112.7	114.5	113.8
Texas A&M	110.0	110.6	111.1	110.6
Auburn	106.8	105.4	105.3	105.8
SEC	113.0	112.6	112.9	112.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.9	99.5	100.3	99.3
James Madison	95.5	97.5	100.3	97.8
Georgia St.	96.1	95.6	98.2	96.6
Coastal Carolina	95.4	96.7	97.4	96.5
Marshall	94.2	95.1	94.5	94.6
Ga. Southern	90.6	90.5	91.4	90.8
Old Dominion	89.3	89.4	89.2	89.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	94.3	95.0	96.3	95.2
South Alabama	92.4	93.1	94.3	93.3
Louisiana	91.7	91.9	93.3	92.3
Southern Miss.	89.9	90.5	90.5	90.3
Arkansas St.	85.4	86.9	86.4	86.2
UL-Monroe	82.6	82.8	82.1	82.5
Texas St.	79.5	80.6	80.3	80.1
Sun Belt	91.1	91.8	92.5	91.8

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.8
2	Big Ten	111.3
3	Big 12	111.3
4	Atlantic Coast	105.8
5	Pac-12	105.0
6	American Athletic	98.5
7	Sun Belt	91.8
8	Independents	91.3
9	Mountain West	90.0
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.8

2022 Debut of Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	Rice	Western Michigan
Cure	Middle Tennessee	Southern Miss.
Fenway	Notre Dame	Central Florida
New Mexico	UTSA	New Mexico
L.A.	Oregon St.	San Jose St.
Lending Tree	Kent St.	Marshall
Las Vegas	USC	LSU
Frisco	{Kansas}	BYU
Myrtle Beach	{Iowa St.}	Appalachian St.
Famous Idaho Potato	Boise St.	Ball St.
Boca Raton	{Texas Tech}	Coastal Carolina
New Orleans	Troy	UAB
Armed Forces	Houston	Western Kentucky
Independence	SMU	Army
Gasparilla	[South Carolina]	Memphis
Hawaii	UNLV	UTEP
Quick Lane	{Liberty}	Eastern Michigan
Camellia	Miami (O)	South Alabama
First Responder	Tulsa	{Wyoming}
Birmingham	North Texas	[Louisville]
Guaranteed Rate	Texas	[Wisconsin]
Military	Pittsburgh	Tulane
Liberty	Baylor	{Washington St.}
Holiday	UCLA	Syracuse
Texas	Oklahoma	Texas A&M
Pinstripe	North Carolina	Purdue
Cheez-It	Duke	Kansas St.
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	Oregon
Duke’s Mayo	Wake Forest	Maryland
Tony the Tiger	Miami (Fla.)	Washingon
Arizona	Air Force	Toledo
Orange	North Carolina St.	Tennessee
Music City	Iowa	Florida
Sugar	TCU	Ole Miss
TaxSlayer	Mississippi St.	Florida St.
Peach	Alabama	Clemson
Fiesta	Ohio St.	Georgia
Tampa Bay	Minnesota	Kentucky
Citrus	Illinois	Arkansas
Cotton	Penn St.	Cincinnati
Rose	Utah	Michigan
National Championship	Alabama	Ohio St.

{Team} = At-large replacement when team not available

[Team] = Team projected to be 5-7 but receive bid due to highest APR scores

PiRate Picks–September 29-October 1, 2022

If you follow this weekly feature, then you must realize at this point in the season that the picks made here have put us in an untenable position. Through four full weeks and one partial fifth week in the college football season, we have issued 21 selections. 16 of them have won, and five of them have been at odds exceeding even money. Our imaginary $1,000 starting account has ballooned to $1,906.19 after going 3-0 last week with two of those three wins bringing better than +130 parlay payouts. That 16-5 record is even more ridiculous when you consider that we had one week where we were 1-4. In all the other weeks, our pretend wagering selections are 15-1! Meanwhile, we made comments in two of those weeks that we did not particularly like the slate of games available for those weeks. All this should tell you that if a situation is obviously untenable, don’t make any large gambles on the situation continuing to be as successful or even successful at all in the future. If 76.2% winners were the norm, and the wagers were real, we would be banned from wagering at most of the books and definitely greatly limited in the amount we could wager at those that did not ban us. Only a small minority of the big-time players ever get limited or banned. That’s why in all honesty, the selections going forward are almost sure to disappoint until the percentages normalize. Think of our selections being like the Cleveland Indians beginning the 1966 baseball season at 14-1 and then 27-10 near the completion of the first quarter of the season. The Indians held a substantial lead over Baltimore, but Leon Wagner was not Frank Robinson. Robby would go on to win the Triple Crown, and the Orioles would pass Cleveland with ease and go on to win the AL pennant in a breeze. The PiRate Ratings are Cleveland. Maybe, our 1954 is out there some day, but there is no reason to believe that it is this year.

Now, that we have a clear conscience, here are our picks for this week. Remember: we never wager real money on these selections, and we suggest you follow this lead. If you are a professional wagering maven, then we know you only read this weekly feature as supplemental information for your other research.

Selection #1: Iowa +10 1/2 vs. Michigan

This play is all about the number. At 9 1/2, we wouldn’t play it. We probably wouldn’t play it at 13 1/2 either. Michigan is clearly better than Iowa, but can they win by double digits in Iowa City when the Hawkeyes’ offense is starting to show signs of respectability? Iowa might be able to control the ball for 32 or more minutes in this game, and Michigan has played one above average team at home with no road games. At 10 1/2, we get 39% of the spreads most likely for a game to have, including nine of the top 15 spreads in college football. Our internal (not the PiRate Ratings) quick compare system shows this game to be a maximum of 8 points in Michigan’s favor and only about a 65% chance that the Maize and Blue will win the game by any amount. We see this being a 27-20 game for the Wolverines, and it wouldn’t be a big shock if Iowa pulled off the upset.

Selection #2: Penn State & Northwestern Under 52 1/2

James Franklin has this team believing in itself, and we have little doubt that the Nittany Lions will win this game with relative ease, but we also believe the first quarter and some of the second quarter of this game will be played conservatively as Penn State tries some new wrinkles. Northwestern’s history of being good in even-numbered years and rebuilding in odd-numbered years may have come to an end, as the Wildcats look no better than they were last year, and their win over Nebraska isn’t worth much. The NU offense isn’t likely to keep the scoreboard operator busy. We think this could be a 34-10 game, maybe a 38-7 game.

Selection #3: UNLV and New Mexico Over 42 1/2

This was a late addition to our selections this week, as the total dropped by a full point on Wednesday, and we think it has been moved too much. There are some middling plays going on with this game. At 43 1/2, it was too close to our projection of 28-17 and 45 points. Usually, we like a game to differ by three points or more in the total, but when it’s this low, 2 1/2 points are enough to make a play. The only concern is that the Lobos are scoring points of fewer than normal total yards gained. However, UNLV’s offense is better than New Mexico’s defense, and we also think there is a chance that the Rebels could score more then 28 points in this game.

Selection #4: Minnesota & Purdue Over 51 1/2

If you follow this weekly feature for any amount of time, you will probably see a trend toward playing the Under on more totals than the Over, but this week, it is an even split. We respect Minnesota’s excellent start to the season, but their defense has yet to be tested by a Power 5 competent offense, as it will this week. This isn’t Drew Brees bringing the Spoilermakers to The Cities, but this also isn’t the Bobby Bell Gophers of 1960 and 1961. Our internal rating shows PU will top 24 points in this game, but their lack of a power running game might prevent the Boilermakers from scoring the one extra TD needed to win this game. Minnesota probably will top 30 points. At 34-27, that’s 9 1/2 more points than needed to satisfy this play.

Selection #5: Oklahoma & TCU Under 68 1/2

This was actually the one total that jumped off the page when we first saw it. Oklahoma is coming off an upset loss to Kansas State where they gave up more than 40 points. TCU is averaging 46.3 points per game but hasn’t played a real defense yet. We suspect that defensive-oriented Sooner coach Brent Venables will concentrate his efforts this week on giving his defense more confidence by playing this game a little more conservatively. Meanwhile, TCU will experience some difficulty trying to consistently move the ball with short passing plays. We think the total for this game will be 60 or less. A final score of 34-21 is expected.

Selection #6: Money Line Parlay @ +176.22

Kent State over Ohio U

Wyoming over San Jose St.

The key game for us this week is the Wyoming-San Jose State game in Laramie. We believe the wrong team is favored. The Cowboys have been a different team at home in altitude as opposed to the road, and San Jose State is coming into a weather situation they have not had a chance to prepare for in the Bay Area. This game could be played in a windy rainstorm, possibly a thunderstorm, with a chance that it could be delayed one or more times. Wyoming has an advantage if the running game must be used more in the quarters where the wind is in the face of the offense. We are looking for Wyoming to win this one outright by 5 to 10 points.

We didn’t want to play Wyoming straight up for 11-10 odds, so we looked to a coupling game that would ramp it up to better than +130, and we found it in the Kent State-Ohio game. The Golden Flashes are at least 10 points better than the Bobcats, but the Money Line was only -450, and combining it with the underdog selection, it makes this parlay an attractive +176.22.

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay @ +157.22

Kansas State over Texas Tech

North Carolina over Virginia Tech

Western Kentucky over Troy

Both teams won big games last week in the Kansas State-Texas Tech match-up. But, the Red Raiders beat their most hated rival. TTU rarely gets the respect in the Lone Star State by the fans of the Longhorns. At the same time, Kansas State has used a big win over a ranked opponent to propel themselves to bigger and better things. Add in the factor that our internal rating shows the Wildcats to be nine points better, and this is an attractive part of a parlay for us.

Neither North Carolina nor Virginia Tech are going to go on big runs to finish with fat won-loss records this year. In fact, we think the Hokies are looking at 5-7 or even 4-8, while the Tar Heels are maybe looking at 7-5 and a minor bowl game. We are looking at a 35-28 win for Mack Brown’s squad.

In Bowling Green, Kentucky, the Hilltoppers have been known as a basketball school with a neat mascot, but their football team should not be overlooked this year. Following a 73-0 win over possibly the worst FBS team in Florida International, they step up to play another under-the-radar team in Troy. This used to be a fierce rivlary game when both were Sun Belt Conference members, and we expect a close, hard-fought game with a lot of offensive action. Our selection of WKU here comes about due to an old theorem of ours from the 1970s that states that when a team easily slaughters a weaker team in a home game one week and then plays at home again the following week, they tend to continue to play near the best of their abilities. We think WKU wins this close game, maybe by just a field goal to five points.

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 29-October 1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
BYU	Utah St.	23.2	21.6	22.5
Houston	Tulane	3.1	2.8	4.0
Middle Tennessee	UTSA	-7.3	-4.7	-5.9
Boise St.	San Diego St.	7.3	6.6	7.5
UCLA	Washington	2.8	1.7	2.9
UNLV	New Mexico	10.7	8.5	11.9
Wisconsin	Illinois	11.3	10.1	12.1
Penn St.	Northwestern	25.1	23.9	26.9
Boston College	Louisville	-10.6	-8.3	-10.9
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	7.7	9.5	9.5
Florida St.	Wake Forest	10.4	10.4	10.5
Army	Georgia St.	6.8	7.8	5.1
Clemson	North Carolina St.	4.5	5.3	5.0
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	25.8	25.1	26.4
Maryland	Michigan St.	1.3	2.5	3.0
Duke	Virginia	-8.9	-6.5	-9.5
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	11.6	11.3	13.6
Old Dominion	Liberty	-3.1	-4.6	-5.1
South Florida	East Carolina	-4.6	-5.5	-6.4
Central Florida	SMU	4.9	6.3	5.4
Ball St.	Northern Illinois	-10.9	-10.5	-11.2
Minnesota	Purdue	10.7	11.3	13.2
James Madison	Texas St.	16.2	17.1	20.4
Air Force	Navy	16.2	17.3	19.0
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	1.0	1.5	0.8
Kansas	Iowa St.	-2.7	-4.2	-5.4
Louisiana	South Alabama	1.9	1.4	1.8
Memphis	Temple	20.2	18.3	22.0
Tulsa	Cincinnati	-12.1	-12.1	-13.4
Eastern Michigan	Massachusetts	16.6	16.8	19.3
Utah	Oregon St.	10.3	9.9	11.4
New Mexico St.	Florida Int’l.	15.6	14.9	16.9
Washington St.	California	6.4	6.9	6.1
Arizona	Colorado	7.8	9.5	8.8
USC	Arizona St.	13.9	14.9	14.5
Oregon	Stanford	14.5	16.4	15.9
Ole Miss	Kentucky	7.2	4.8	4.6
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	7.5	7.6	6.3
Ohio St.	Rutgers	33.0	32.4	37.0
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	6.3	3.8	3.6
TCU	Oklahoma	-3.8	-4.1	-4.6
Iowa	Michigan	-7.4	-7.3	-9.0
Texas	West Virginia	8.8	7.9	9.1
Auburn	LSU	-6.0	-6.8	-7.1
Arkansas	Alabama	-12.9	-13.7	-13.9
Missouri	Georgia	-28.2	-26.3	-30.6
Toledo	Central Michigan	3.4	2.6	2.2
Buffalo	Miami (O)	-4.3	-4.5	-4.8
Connecticut	Fresno St.	-20.6	-19.0	-24.0
Akron	Bowling Green	-9.0	-7.2	-8.8
Kent St.	Ohio	9.2	9.2	8.3
Arkansas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	3.1	4.4	4.4
North Texas	Florida Atlantic	-3.1	-5.3	-2.2
Charlotte	UTEP	-4.4	-3.3	-4.9
Nebraska	Indiana	3.5	4.0	4.8
Western Kentucky	Troy	11.6	11.1	12.3
Rice	UAB	-11.9	-12.4	-13.9
Wyoming	San Jose St.	-0.9	0.7	-0.8

FBS vs. FCS Spreads

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Appalachian St.	The Citadel	32.4
Florida	Eastern Washington	27.4
Marshall	Gardner-Webb	27.7
Western Michigan	New Hampshire	20.4
South Carolina	South Carolina St.	32.5
Syracuse	Wagner	51.0

Teams With A Bye This Week

Colorado St.

Hawaii

Louisiana Tech

Miami (Fla.)

Nevada

Notre Dame

Southern Miss.

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	132.8
2	Alabama	131.3
3	Ohio St.	130.9
4	Michigan	123.9
5	Minnesota	121.3
6	Clemson	118.5
7	Oklahoma	118.3
8	Tennessee	117.7
9	Penn St.	117.6
10	Utah	117.0
11	Oklahoma St.	116.8
12	NC State	116.6
13	L S U	115.3
14	Ole Miss	115.1
15	Wisconsin	115.0
16	Baylor	114.9
17	Arkansas	114.8
18	Pittsburgh	114.0
19	Florida St.	113.9
20	Mississippi St.	113.8
21	Iowa	113.0
22	Oregon	113.0
23	Purdue	112.6
24	Cincinnati	112.6
25	Kentucky	112.5
26	U S C	112.5
27	Notre Dame	112.5
28	Texas A&M	112.2
29	Texas	112.2
30	Kansas St.	112.0
31	Michigan St.	111.9
32	T C U	111.6
33	Maryland	111.1
34	Miami (Fla.)	110.3
35	BYU	110.2
36	Louisville	109.9
37	Washington	109.6
38	Oregon St.	109.5
39	Iowa St.	109.4
40	U C L A	109.1
41	Syracuse	107.9
42	Texas Tech	107.8
43	South Carolina	107.4
44	West Virginia	106.6
45	UCF	106.5
46	Wake Forest	106.5
47	Florida	106.4
48	North Carolina	106.2
49	Illinois	105.9
50	Auburn	105.6
51	SMU	104.0
52	Washington St.	103.6
53	Air Force	103.4
54	Kansas	102.3
55	W. Kentucky	102.1
56	Fresno St.	101.9
57	Houston	101.5
58	Missouri	101.4
59	Virginia	101.4
60	Arizona St.	101.1
61	Tulane	100.7
62	Nebraska	100.6
63	Stanford	100.4
64	California	100.1
65	East Carolina	100.0
66	Rutgers	99.8
67	Indiana	99.5
68	Boise St.	99.3
69	U A B	99.1
70	Army	98.6
71	Appalachian St.	98.6
72	Memphis	98.0
73	Boston College	97.4
74	Virginia Tech	97.1
75	Tulsa	97.0
76	Coastal Carolina	96.9
77	U T S A	96.8
78	Liberty	96.8
79	James Madison	96.6
80	N. Illinois	96.4
81	Northwestern	95.3
82	San Diego St.	95.2
83	Arizona	95.2
84	Marshall	94.8
85	Georgia St.	94.5
86	Toledo	94.5
87	Central Mich.	94.3
88	Miami (Ohio)	93.8
89	Vanderbilt	93.7
90	Troy	93.0
91	South Alabama	92.9
92	Louisiana	92.7
93	U N L V	92.1
94	USF	92.0
95	Kent St.	91.5
96	San Jose St.	91.3
97	Georgia Tech	91.2
98	Duke	90.6
99	Old Dominion	90.5
100	Ga. Southern	90.5
101	Western Mich.	90.3
102	Florida Atlantic	90.2
103	Southern Miss.	90.1
104	Colorado	89.5
105	Utah St.	89.3
106	Navy	88.9
107	Middle Tennessee	88.3
108	Wyoming	87.9
109	Buffalo	86.7
110	U T E P	86.6
111	Bowling Green	86.4
112	Eastern Mich.	85.6
113	Nevada	85.4
114	Arkansas St.	85.1
115	Ohio	85.1
116	New Mexico	84.2
117	North Texas	84.2
118	Rice	83.9
119	UL-Monroe	83.6
120	Ball St.	83.6
121	Colorado St.	81.6
122	Texas St.	81.2
123	Louisiana Tech	81.0
124	Temple	80.9
125	Charlotte	79.8
126	Connecticut	77.7
127	Akron	76.0
128	New Mexico St.	75.2
129	Hawaii	71.2
130	Massachusetts	70.6
131	Florida Int’l.	61.9

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	112.2	111.7	113.8	112.6
UCF	106.1	106.8	106.7	106.5
SMU	104.3	103.4	104.3	104.0
Houston	101.7	100.8	102.0	101.5
Tulane	101.1	100.5	100.5	100.7
East Carolina	99.9	99.5	100.6	100.0
Memphis	98.0	98.3	97.7	98.0
Tulsa	97.2	96.6	97.3	97.0
USF	92.8	91.5	91.7	92.0
Navy	89.7	88.8	88.2	88.9
Temple	80.8	83.0	78.7	80.9
AAC	98.5	98.2	98.3	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	118.5	118.3	118.8	118.5
NC State	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6
Florida St.	114.1	113.8	113.9	113.9
Louisville	110.6	109.5	109.6	109.9
Syracuse	108.7	107.6	107.3	107.9
Wake Forest	106.7	106.4	106.4	106.5
Boston College	97.4	98.7	96.2	97.4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	114.9	113.8	113.4	114.0
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	109.6	110.4	110.3
North Carolina	106.3	106.4	106.1	106.2
Virginia	102.0	102.0	100.2	101.4
Virginia Tech	97.7	98.0	95.5	97.1
Georgia Tech	92.1	91.7	90.0	91.2
Duke	90.6	93.0	88.2	90.6
ACC	106.2	106.0	105.2	105.8
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	118.7	117.7	118.6	118.3
Oklahoma St.	117.4	115.9	117.2	116.8
Baylor	115.4	114.4	115.0	114.9
Texas	112.9	111.8	111.8	112.2
Kansas St.	112.7	111.4	111.9	112.0
T C U	112.4	111.1	111.5	111.6
Iowa St.	109.3	109.3	109.5	109.4
Texas Tech	108.1	106.8	108.6	107.8
West Virginia	107.1	106.9	105.7	106.6
Kansas	103.7	102.1	101.1	102.3
Big 12	111.7	110.7	111.1	111.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	131.2	129.7	132.0	130.9
Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.2	123.9
Penn St.	117.7	117.7	117.6	117.6
Michigan St.	112.9	111.7	111.1	111.9
Maryland	111.2	111.2	111.1	111.1
Rutgers	101.1	100.3	98.0	99.8
Indiana	100.7	99.9	98.0	99.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Minnesota	121.3	120.8	121.7	121.3
Wisconsin	115.5	114.9	114.6	115.0
Iowa	114.0	112.9	112.2	113.0
Purdue	113.6	112.5	111.5	112.6
Illinois	106.3	106.9	104.6	105.9
Nebraska	101.2	100.9	99.8	100.6
Northwestern	95.6	96.7	93.7	95.3
Big Ten	111.9	111.4	110.7	111.3
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	101.3	101.4	103.7	102.1
U A B	98.5	98.7	100.1	99.1
U T S A	97.3	95.9	97.2	96.8
Florida Atlantic	89.8	91.1	89.8	90.2
Middle Tennessee	87.5	88.7	88.8	88.3
U T E P	86.7	86.3	86.6	86.6
North Texas	84.2	83.3	85.1	84.2
Rice	84.1	83.8	83.7	83.9
Louisiana Tech	80.9	82.2	79.7	81.0
Charlotte	79.7	80.5	79.3	79.8
Florida Int’l.	61.6	64.2	59.9	61.9
CUSA	86.5	86.9	86.7	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.9	111.3	113.2	112.5
BYU	110.8	109.2	110.6	110.2
Army	98.4	98.8	98.7	98.6
Liberty	95.6	97.2	97.5	96.8
Connecticut	78.2	79.1	75.8	77.7
New Mexico St.	74.7	76.6	74.3	75.2
Massachusetts	71.3	71.8	68.6	70.6
Independents	91.7	92.0	91.2	91.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	92.1	94.7	94.5	93.8
Kent St.	90.6	92.8	91.1	91.5
Buffalo	85.3	87.7	87.2	86.7
Bowling Green	87.0	85.9	86.2	86.4
Ohio	83.9	86.0	85.3	85.1
Akron	76.0	76.7	75.4	76.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	96.2	96.6	96.5	96.4
Toledo	93.7	94.7	95.2	94.5
Central Mich.	92.8	94.6	95.5	94.3
Western Mich.	89.8	90.6	90.5	90.3
Eastern Mich.	85.4	86.0	85.4	85.6
Ball St.	83.3	84.2	83.3	83.6
MAC	88.0	89.2	88.8	88.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Air Force	102.9	103.1	104.3	103.4
Boise St.	99.5	98.5	99.9	99.3
Utah St.	89.1	89.1	89.6	89.3
Wyoming	86.7	88.9	88.2	87.9
New Mexico	84.5	84.8	83.4	84.2
Colorado St.	81.4	82.2	81.4	81.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	101.8	101.1	102.8	101.9
San Diego St.	95.2	94.9	95.4	95.2
U N L V	92.6	90.7	92.9	92.1
San Jose St.	90.6	91.2	92.0	91.3
Nevada	84.9	86.6	84.8	85.4
Hawaii	70.7	71.9	71.1	71.2
MWC	90.0	90.2	90.5	90.2
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.8	115.9	118.5	117.0
Oregon	113.4	112.8	112.8	113.0
U S C	111.9	112.5	113.1	112.5
Washington	108.9	109.8	110.2	109.6
Oregon St.	109.4	108.9	110.1	109.5
U C L A	108.7	108.6	110.1	109.1
Washington St.	103.0	103.7	104.0	103.6
Arizona St.	101.0	100.6	101.6	101.1
Stanford	101.9	99.4	99.9	100.4
California	99.6	99.8	101.0	100.1
Arizona	95.3	95.1	95.1	95.2
Colorado	90.5	88.6	89.3	89.5
Pac-12	105.0	104.6	105.5	105.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	132.8	131.4	134.2	132.8
Tennessee	117.5	117.6	117.9	117.7
Kentucky	111.9	112.6	113.1	112.5
South Carolina	107.7	106.9	107.5	107.4
Florida	105.8	107.3	106.2	106.4
Missouri	101.6	102.0	100.6	101.4
Vanderbilt	93.9	94.7	92.4	93.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.1	130.3	132.4	131.3
L S U	115.7	115.0	115.1	115.3
Ole Miss	116.2	114.4	114.7	115.1
Arkansas	115.2	113.6	115.5	114.8
Mississippi St.	114.7	113.2	113.5	113.8
Texas A&M	111.4	112.3	112.9	112.2
Auburn	106.7	105.2	105.0	105.6
SEC	113.0	112.6	112.9	112.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.2	98.8	99.6	98.6
Coastal Carolina	95.6	97.1	97.9	96.9
James Madison	94.3	96.3	99.2	96.6
Marshall	94.4	95.3	94.7	94.8
Georgia St.	94.1	93.4	96.1	94.5
Old Dominion	90.5	90.6	90.4	90.5
Ga. Southern	90.4	90.1	90.9	90.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	92.2	92.8	93.9	93.0
South Alabama	92.1	92.8	93.9	92.9
Louisiana	92.0	92.2	93.7	92.7
Southern Miss.	89.7	90.3	90.3	90.1
Arkansas St.	84.3	85.8	85.2	85.1
UL-Monroe	83.7	83.9	83.3	83.6
Texas St.	80.6	81.7	81.3	81.2
Sun Belt	90.8	91.5	92.2	91.5

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.9
2	Big Ten	111.3
3	Big 12	111.2
4	Atlantic Coast	105.8
5	Pac-12	105.0
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	91.6
8	Sun Belt	91.5
9	Mountain West	90.2
10	Mid-American	88.7
11	Conference USA	86.7

Coming In October

As October leads the College Football worlds into mostly conference play, it’s time to start looking ahead at the Playoffs and Bowl Projections. The PiRates do it a bit differently from others. We don’t make our projections based on what each team has done to the present time, like most others. We first forecast the rest of the season and then make our projections based on what we believe the standings will be. Additionally, we plan to do our best to explain the inexact rules for where teams can go. No longer can you look and see who will finish 3rd in a conference and then know where the 3rd place team is automatically slotted to go bowling. It’s more like the 1960’s, where the bowls can choose which teams they want with the help of the conferences that have the tie-ins. In the case of many bowls, multiple conferences can be in the mix, and ESPN can steer the teams into the bowls they want them to appear so as to attempt to get their maximum TV ratings.

This Week’s Playoff Projections

1.) Alabama

2.) Ohio State

3.) Georgia

4.) USC

Top Group of 5 (For The Cotton Bowl Bid)

1.) Cincinnati

2.) Central Florida

3.) Coastal Carolina

4.) Air Force

5.) Middle Tennessee

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 22-24, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	West Virginia	-2.5	-1.5	-3.1
Georgia St.	Coastal Carolina	6.4	4.1	6.5
Syracuse	Virginia	10.4	9.4	11.3
Air Force	Nevada	19.1	17.1	20.3
UTEP	Boise St.	-18.4	-17.8	-19.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	-2.6	-1.3	-1.5
Kentucky	Northern Illinois	20.1	20.6	21.6
South Carolina	Charlotte	30.0	28.1	29.9
Temple	Massachusetts	9.2	11.2	9.4
Georgia	Kent St.	50.2	46.4	51.5
North Carolina	Notre Dame	-1.3	0.8	-1.4
Miami (Fla.)	Middle Tennessee	34.3	31.9	32.6
Michigan	Maryland	18.0	16.6	18.3
North Carolina St.	Connecticut	42.6	40.7	45.5
Penn St.	Central Michigan	29.7	27.6	26.7
Central Florida	Georgia Tech	17.1	18.1	19.9
Louisville	South Florida	16.9	16.9	16.6
Michigan St.	Minnesota	2.7	2.2	0.5
Wake Forest	Clemson	-11.2	-11.5	-12.2
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	15.2	13.8	16.7
Liberty	Akron	24.0	25.3	27.3
Florida St.	Boston College	17.1	14.9	17.7
Tennessee	Florida	15.6	14.4	16.1
Cincinnati	Indiana	13.2	13.3	17.7
East Carolina	Navy	16.2	16.9	19.2
Georgia Southern	Ball St.	9.9	8.4	10.4
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	9.5	7.6	7.7
Appalachian St.	James Madison	8.6	8.4	6.1
Rutgers	Iowa	-9.2	-8.5	-10.3
Kansas	Duke	17.5	13.2	17.8
Northwestern	Miami (O)	8.6	7.1	3.9
Old Dominion	Arkansas St.	9.8	8.4	9.0
Colorado	UCLA	-12.0	-13.9	-14.7
BYU	Wyoming	28.7	24.5	27.2
New Mexico St.	Hawaii	5.1	5.7	3.8
Arizona St.	Utah	-11.5	-10.7	-12.5
Oregon St.	USC	1.6	0.5	1.5
San Diego St.	Toledo	4.5	3.2	3.2
Washington St.	Oregon	-7.7	-6.3	-6.1
California	Arizona	4.8	5.0	6.2
Washington	Stanford	8.0	11.7	11.3
Troy	Marshall	-1.5	-2.2	-0.4
South Alabama	Louisiana Tech	11.0	10.0	14.0
Mississippi St.	Bowling Green	30.3	29.7	29.4
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	13.4	14.1	14.6
Ole Miss	Tulsa	23.9	22.7	22.5
Alabama	Vanderbilt	37.1	35.0	39.9
SMU	TCU	-5.7	-4.9	-3.9
Texas Tech	Texas	-2.7	-3.3	-1.3
UL-Monroe	Louisiana	-9.6	-9.9	-12.7
Texas A&M (n)	Arkansas	-4.6	-1.7	-3.6
Houston	Rice	20.5	20.1	21.8
Memphis	North Texas	16.7	18.1	15.7
Tulane	Southern Miss.	17.4	15.9	16.2
Auburn	Missouri	8.5	6.7	8.3
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	35.0	32.1	39.3
Utah St.	UNLV	1.0	3.4	1.7
Purdue	Florida Atlantic	31.5	28.9	29.4
LSU	New Mexico	33.8	32.5	33.9
San Jose St.	Western Michigan	-1.7	-2.4	-1.5

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Illinois	Chattanooga	23.8
Ohio	Fordham	16.7
Texas St.	Houston Baptist	26.4
Pittsburgh	Rhode Island	32.0
Colorado St.	Sacramento St.	-3.0
UTSA	Texas Southern	37.2

Teams With Byes

Army

Fresno St.

Nebraska

Oklahoma St.

UAB

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	135.3
2	Alabama	129.5
3	Ohio St.	128.8
4	Michigan	124.6
5	Oklahoma	120.7
6	Clemson	119.7
7	Tennessee	118.2
8	Penn St.	118.2
9	NC State	117.1
10	Wisconsin	116.6
11	Oklahoma St.	116.5
12	Minnesota	116.4
13	Utah	116.3
14	Ole Miss	115.8
15	Purdue	115.2
16	Michigan St.	115.2
17	Arkansas	115.1
18	L S U	114.9
19	Miami (Fla.)	114.8
20	Baylor	114.6
21	Pittsburgh	114.3
22	Mississippi St.	113.5
23	Kentucky	113.4
24	Oregon	113.0
25	Florida St.	112.5
26	Texas	112.5
27	Iowa	112.4
28	Cincinnati	112.2
29	Texas A&M	111.8
30	U S C	111.6
31	Notre Dame	111.3
32	BYU	111.0
33	T C U	110.7
34	Maryland	110.0
35	Oregon St.	109.8
36	Iowa St.	109.7
37	Kansas St.	109.6
38	Washington	108.7
39	Syracuse	108.3
40	Louisville	108.1
41	U C L A	107.7
42	North Carolina	107.7
43	Texas Tech	107.5
44	South Carolina	107.0
45	UCF	106.6
46	Auburn	106.2
47	Florida	105.9
48	Wake Forest	105.6
49	Illinois	105.5
50	West Virginia	104.5
51	SMU	104.4
52	Boise St.	104.2
53	Washington St.	103.3
54	Kansas	102.8
55	Tulane	102.7
56	Houston	102.4
57	Air Force	102.3
58	Arizona St.	101.8
59	Fresno St.	101.7
60	East Carolina	101.7
61	Stanford	101.4
62	Missouri	101.4
63	Virginia	100.9
64	Nebraska	100.3
65	Rutgers	100.1
66	Indiana	99.9
67	Appalachian St.	99.7
68	Virginia Tech	99.6
69	U A B	98.9
70	Boston College	98.9
71	California	98.7
72	W. Kentucky	98.5
73	Army	98.4
74	Memphis	98.3
75	Liberty	98.2
76	U T S A	97.1
77	Georgia St.	96.8
78	Northwestern	96.6
79	Arizona	96.3
80	Marshall	95.8
81	Tulsa	95.8
82	N. Illinois	95.6
83	San Diego St.	95.2
84	Vanderbilt	95.2
85	James Madison	95.0
86	Louisiana	94.8
87	Toledo	94.5
88	USF	94.3
89	Coastal Carolina	93.6
90	Western Mich.	93.2
91	Central Mich.	93.2
92	Miami (Ohio)	92.5
93	Troy	92.0
94	South Alabama	91.4
95	Georgia Tech	91.2
96	Colorado	91.2
97	U N L V	91.2
98	Old Dominion	90.8
99	Ga. Southern	90.3
100	Utah St.	90.2
101	Duke	89.6
102	Kent St.	89.0
103	Eastern Mich.	88.8
104	San Jose St.	88.3
105	Florida Atlantic	88.3
106	Southern Miss.	88.1
107	Navy	87.2
108	Wyoming	87.2
109	Bowling Green	86.7
110	Nevada	86.5
111	Ohio	85.4
112	Middle Tennessee	84.8
113	Arkansas St.	84.8
114	New Mexico	84.6
115	Colorado St.	84.1
116	North Texas	83.9
117	Ball St.	83.7
118	Buffalo	83.5
119	U T E P	83.2
120	Rice	82.6
121	Louisiana Tech	82.2
122	UL-Monroe	82.0
123	Texas St.	80.9
124	Charlotte	80.2
125	Temple	79.6
126	Connecticut	77.2
127	Akron	75.1
128	New Mexico St.	73.9
129	Hawaii	72.5
130	Massachusetts	72.2
131	Florida Int’l.	65.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.8	111.2	113.5	112.2
UCF	106.1	106.8	106.8	106.6
SMU	104.5	103.8	104.9	104.4
Tulane	103.1	102.4	102.5	102.7
Houston	102.5	101.7	103.1	102.4
East Carolina	101.4	101.1	102.5	101.7
Memphis	98.2	98.6	98.0	98.3
Tulsa	96.0	95.4	96.0	95.8
USF	95.0	93.8	94.1	94.3
Navy	88.2	87.2	86.3	87.2
Temple	79.6	81.9	77.3	79.6
AAC	98.8	98.5	98.6	98.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.6	119.5	120.1	119.7
NC State	117.4	116.4	117.5	117.1
Florida St.	112.8	112.2	112.4	112.5
Syracuse	109.1	108.0	107.9	108.3
Louisville	108.9	107.7	107.7	108.1
Wake Forest	105.9	105.5	105.4	105.6
Boston College	98.7	100.3	97.7	98.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	115.3	114.1	114.9	114.8
Pittsburgh	115.2	114.1	113.7	114.3
North Carolina	107.6	107.9	107.6	107.7
Virginia	101.6	101.6	99.6	100.9
Virginia Tech	100.1	100.6	98.0	99.6
Georgia Tech	92.1	91.7	89.9	91.2
Duke	89.6	92.2	87.0	89.6
ACC	106.7	106.5	105.7	106.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.9	120.1	121.1	120.7
Oklahoma St.	117.1	115.6	116.9	116.5
Baylor	115.2	114.0	114.5	114.6
Texas	113.1	112.2	112.1	112.5
T C U	111.7	110.2	110.4	110.7
Iowa St.	109.5	109.7	110.0	109.7
Kansas St.	110.5	109.0	109.4	109.6
Texas Tech	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
West Virginia	105.1	104.7	103.6	104.5
Kansas	104.2	102.4	101.8	102.8
Big 12	111.5	110.4	110.8	110.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	129.2	127.5	129.9	128.8
Michigan	125.0	123.8	125.0	124.6
Penn St.	118.3	118.2	118.1	118.2
Michigan St.	116.2	115.1	114.4	115.2
Maryland	110.1	110.1	109.8	110.0
Rutgers	101.3	100.7	98.3	100.1
Indiana	101.1	100.4	98.3	99.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	117.0	116.6	116.2	116.6
Minnesota	116.5	115.9	116.9	116.4
Purdue	116.3	115.1	114.2	115.2
Iowa	113.5	112.2	111.6	112.4
Illinois	105.9	106.5	104.2	105.5
Nebraska	100.9	100.6	99.5	100.3
Northwestern	96.9	98.0	94.8	96.6
Big Ten	112.0	111.5	110.8	111.4
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.3	98.5	99.9	98.9
W. Kentucky	97.7	97.6	100.2	98.5
U T S A	97.6	96.2	97.5	97.1
Florida Atlantic	87.8	89.2	87.8	88.3
Middle Tennessee	84.0	85.2	85.3	84.8
North Texas	84.0	83.0	84.8	83.9
U T E P	83.4	83.0	83.1	83.2
Rice	83.0	82.6	82.3	82.6
Louisiana Tech	82.1	83.6	80.9	82.2
Charlotte	79.9	80.9	79.7	80.2
Florida Int’l.	65.2	68.0	63.4	65.5
CUSA	85.7	86.2	85.9	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	111.9	110.1	112.0	111.3
BYU	111.6	109.8	111.5	111.0
Army	98.2	98.6	98.5	98.4
Liberty	96.8	98.6	99.1	98.2
Connecticut	77.8	78.7	75.1	77.2
New Mexico St.	73.5	75.3	72.8	73.9
Massachusetts	72.9	73.3	70.4	72.2
Independents	91.8	92.1	91.3	91.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	90.8	93.4	93.4	92.5
Kent St.	88.1	90.4	88.4	89.0
Bowling Green	87.2	86.2	86.6	86.7
Ohio	84.2	86.3	85.6	85.4
Buffalo	82.1	84.6	84.0	83.5
Akron	75.3	75.8	74.3	75.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	95.5	95.8	95.5	95.6
Toledo	93.7	94.7	95.2	94.5
Western Mich.	92.6	93.6	93.5	93.2
Central Mich.	91.6	93.5	94.4	93.2
Eastern Mich.	88.6	89.1	88.6	88.8
Ball St.	83.4	84.5	83.4	83.7
MAC	87.8	89.0	88.6	88.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	103.3	104.9	104.2
Air Force	101.9	101.9	103.2	102.3
Utah St.	89.9	90.1	90.6	90.2
Wyoming	85.9	88.3	87.3	87.2
New Mexico	84.7	85.2	83.8	84.6
Colorado St.	83.9	84.7	83.9	84.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	101.6	100.9	102.6	101.7
San Diego St.	95.2	94.9	95.4	95.2
U N L V	91.8	89.7	91.9	91.2
San Jose St.	87.8	88.2	89.0	88.3
Nevada	85.9	87.8	85.9	86.5
Hawaii	71.9	73.2	72.6	72.5
MWC	90.4	90.7	90.9	90.7
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.2	115.1	117.8	116.3
Oregon	113.4	112.8	112.8	113.0
U S C	111.1	111.7	112.1	111.6
Oregon St.	109.7	109.2	110.6	109.8
Washington	107.9	108.9	109.2	108.7
U C L A	107.3	107.2	108.7	107.7
Washington St.	102.7	103.4	103.7	103.3
Arizona St.	101.6	101.4	102.3	101.8
Stanford	102.9	100.3	100.9	101.4
California	98.2	98.3	99.5	98.7
Arizona	96.4	96.3	96.3	96.3
Colorado	92.2	90.3	91.0	91.2
Pac-12	105.0	104.6	105.4	105.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	135.3	133.8	136.9	135.3
Tennessee	118.0	118.1	118.6	118.2
Kentucky	112.6	113.4	114.1	113.4
South Carolina	107.5	106.5	107.1	107.0
Florida	105.3	106.8	105.5	105.9
Missouri	101.6	102.0	100.4	101.4
Vanderbilt	95.3	96.3	93.8	95.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.4	128.4	130.7	129.5
Ole Miss	116.9	115.1	115.5	115.8
Arkansas	115.6	113.8	116.0	115.1
L S U	115.5	114.6	114.7	114.9
Mississippi St.	114.5	112.9	113.1	113.5
Texas A&M	111.0	112.1	112.4	111.8
Auburn	107.2	105.7	105.7	106.2
SEC	113.3	112.8	113.2	113.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	98.3	100.0	100.7	99.7
Georgia St.	96.3	95.5	98.5	96.8
Marshall	95.3	96.4	95.7	95.8
James Madison	92.7	94.6	97.6	95.0
Coastal Carolina	92.4	94.0	94.5	93.6
Old Dominion	90.8	90.9	90.8	90.8
Ga. Southern	90.3	89.8	90.8	90.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	93.9	94.2	96.1	94.8
Troy	91.3	91.7	92.9	92.0
South Alabama	90.6	91.1	92.4	91.4
Southern Miss.	87.7	88.4	88.3	88.1
Arkansas St.	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.4	81.4	82.0
Texas St.	80.3	81.4	81.0	80.9
Sun Belt	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.4
3	Big 12	110.9
4	Atlantic Coast	106.3
5	Pac-12	105.0
6	American Athletic	98.6
7	Independents	91.7
8	Sun Belt	91.1
9	Mountain West	90.7
10	Mid-American	88.4
11	Conference USA	85.9

Playoff Projections

1.) Georgia

2.) Ohio St.

3.) Alabama

4.) Oklahoma

Most Likely Top Group of 5 Team

For Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Game

1.) Coastal Carolina

2.) Cincinnati

3.) Appalachian St.

4.) Tulane

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 16-17, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	Florida St.	-0.5	-1.1	-0.9
Wyoming	Air Force	-17.9	-15.3	-18.2
Miami (O)	Cincinnati	-18.8	-15.0	-17.7
Michigan	Connecticut	48.7	45.9	51.5
Syracuse	Purdue	-5.1	-4.9	-4.3
Temple	Rutgers	-22.8	-19.7	-22.5
Baylor	Texas St.	37.5	35.2	36.0
Indiana	Western Kentucky	6.6	6.2	0.9
South Carolina	Georgia	-20.7	-19.7	-22.6
Nebraska	Oklahoma	-11.5	-10.6	-12.9
Coastal Carolina	Buffalo	13.5	12.4	14.2
Iowa St.	Ohio	28.0	25.4	26.3
New Mexico	UTEP	0.7	1.5	-0.5
Virginia	Old Dominion	13.9	14.0	11.9
UCLA	South Alabama	22.1	21.5	22.2
Notre Dame	California	18.1	16.1	17.2
UNLV	North Texas	4.8	3.4	3.5
Kansas St.	Tulane	15.0	14.2	14.7
Wisconsin	New Mexico St.	43.9	41.0	43.3
Auburn	Penn St.	-2.8	-4.2	-3.6
Northern Illinois	Vanderbilt	5.5	4.8	7.8
Minnesota	Colorado	23.5	24.8	25.1
Georgia Tech	Ole Miss	-16.4	-14.6	-16.8
Oregon	BYU	0.8	2.1	-0.1
UAB	Georgia Southern	10.2	10.8	11.2
Appalachian St.	Troy	10.1	11.8	11.6
Houston	Kansas	6.4	8.0	10.7
Alabama	UL-Monroe	49.5	48.0	51.7
Washington St.	Colorado St.	19.2	19.0	19.8
Wake Forest	Liberty	14.6	12.1	11.4
Bowling Green	Marshall	-6.3	-8.9	-7.8
LSU	Mississippi St.	1.2	2.0	1.4
Ohio St.	Toledo	34.5	31.1	33.1
Tennessee	Akron	43.5	42.8	44.5
Georgia St.	Charlotte	23.6	21.6	26.8
North Carolina St.	Texas Tech	12.5	13.0	12.2
Memphis	Arkansas St.	16.6	15.5	15.8
Florida Atlantic	Central Florida	-13.9	-12.8	-14.2
Florida	South Florida	13.9	17.3	15.5
Maryland	SMU	8.8	9.7	8.0
Washington	Michigan St.	-10.1	-7.8	-6.8
Western Michigan	Pittsburgh	-20.1	-17.6	-16.9
Iowa	Nevada	31.1	27.4	28.9
Rice	Lousiana	-13.9	-15.0	-17.6
Texas	UTSA	18.3	18.7	17.2
Clemson	Louisiana Tech	41.9	40.3	44.2
Texas A&M	Miami (Fla.)	-2.6	0.1	-1.0
Utah	San Diego St.	23.6	22.3	25.0
USC	Fresno St.	9.1	10.4	8.7
Arizona St.	Eastern Michigan	21.7	20.9	23.0

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Arizona	North Dakota St.	3.3
Arkansas	Missouri St.	31.3
Army	Villanova	11.8
Ball St.	Murray St.	21.6
Boise St.	UT-Martin	24.3
Boston College	Maine	27.1
Central Michigan	Bucknell	37.3
Duke	North Carolina A&T	25.4
East Carolina	Campbell	30.4
Hawaii	Duquesne	12.0
Kent St.	Long Island	28.8
Kentucky	Youngstown St.	33.7
Massachusetts	Stony Brook	-1.0
Middle Tennessee	Tennessee St.	24.6
Missouri	Abilene Christian	28.4
Northwestern	Southern Illinois	18.6
Oklahoma St.	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	54.3
Oregon St.	Montana St.	18.3
Southern Miss.	Northwestern St.	25.4
Tulsa	Jacksonville St.	20.5
Virginia Tech	Wofford	31.2
West Virginia	Towson St.	32.6

Teams With Bye Weeks

Navy

North Carolina

TCU

Illinois

Florida Int’l.

Utah St.

San Jose St.

Stanford

James Madison

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	133.2
2	Alabama	129.1
3	Ohio St.	126.6
4	Michigan	124.0
5	Clemson	120.5
6	Oklahoma	118.5
7	Michigan St.	117.6
8	NC State	117.1
9	Tennessee	117.0
10	Oklahoma St.	116.4
11	Utah	116.1
12	Arkansas	115.8
13	Purdue	115.7
14	Penn St.	115.6
15	Miami (Fla.)	115.5
16	Wisconsin	115.3
17	Mississippi St.	114.9
18	Baylor	114.6
19	Minnesota	114.5
20	Pittsburgh	114.1
21	Kentucky	113.6
22	L S U	113.5
23	BYU	113.0
24	Ole Miss	113.0
25	Iowa	112.5
26	Texas	112.3
27	Notre Dame	112.2
28	Florida St.	112.2
29	Kansas St.	112.0
30	Cincinnati	111.9
31	Texas A&M	111.4
32	Oregon	111.0
33	T C U	110.4
34	Maryland	110.1
35	U S C	109.9
36	U C L A	109.4
37	Iowa St.	109.3
38	South Carolina	109.2
39	Auburn	109.1
40	Oregon St.	108.6
41	Louisville	108.3
42	Syracuse	107.9
43	Texas Tech	107.5
44	North Carolina	107.4
45	Florida	107.0
46	Wake Forest	106.8
47	Washington	106.3
48	UCF	105.2
49	Illinois	105.2
50	Arizona St.	105.1
51	Houston	105.0
52	Air Force	104.6
53	SMU	104.3
54	Boise St.	104.1
55	Nebraska	103.8
56	West Virginia	103.5
57	Fresno St.	103.5
58	Missouri	102.0
59	Rutgers	101.9
60	Washington St.	101.9
61	Virginia	101.7
62	East Carolina	101.4
63	Stanford	101.1
64	Indiana	100.4
65	Tulane	100.3
66	Appalachian St.	100.2
67	Virginia Tech	100.0
68	Kansas	99.7
69	Georgia St.	99.5
70	Boston College	99.2
71	Northwestern	98.9
72	U A B	98.7
73	Memphis	98.5
74	W. Kentucky	98.3
75	California	98.1
76	Louisiana	98.0
77	U T S A	97.3
78	Army	97.2
79	N. Illinois	97.1
80	Toledo	96.7
81	Liberty	96.6
82	Arizona	96.3
83	Marshall	96.3
84	San Diego St.	95.5
85	Tulsa	94.9
86	James Madison	94.8
87	Georgia Tech	94.0
88	Coastal Carolina	93.8
89	Vanderbilt	93.6
90	USF	93.4
91	Western Mich.	93.4
92	Colorado	93.1
93	Central Mich.	93.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	92.8
95	Troy	91.5
96	Ga. Southern	90.5
97	South Alabama	90.4
98	Old Dominion	90.4
99	Utah St.	90.0
100	Florida Atlantic	89.6
101	Duke	89.4
102	U N L V	88.4
103	Kent St.	88.3
104	San Jose St.	88.1
105	Navy	87.0
106	North Texas	87.0
107	Southern Miss.	86.6
108	Nevada	86.4
109	Eastern Mich.	86.2
110	Bowling Green	86.2
111	Ohio	85.8
112	Colorado St.	85.5
113	U T E P	85.1
114	Wyoming	84.9
115	Arkansas St.	84.5
116	Middle Tennessee	84.0
117	Ball St.	83.4
118	Buffalo	83.4
119	New Mexico	83.2
120	UL-Monroe	82.4
121	Louisiana Tech	81.4
122	Texas St.	80.9
123	Rice	79.9
124	Connecticut	78.3
125	Temple	78.3
126	Charlotte	78.0
127	Akron	76.4
128	New Mexico St.	75.5
129	Hawaii	72.6
130	Massachusetts	71.5
131	Florida Int’l.	65.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.7	110.8	113.3	111.9
UCF	104.9	105.4	105.4	105.2
Houston	104.8	104.3	106.0	105.0
SMU	104.4	103.6	104.8	104.3
East Carolina	101.1	100.8	102.2	101.4
Tulane	100.8	100.1	100.1	100.3
Memphis	98.4	98.8	98.3	98.5
Tulsa	95.1	94.5	95.1	94.9
USF	94.4	92.8	93.2	93.4
Navy	88.0	87.0	86.1	87.0
Temple	78.3	80.7	75.8	78.3
AAC	98.4	98.1	98.2	98.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.3	120.2	121.1	120.5
NC State	117.4	116.4	117.5	117.1
Florida St.	112.6	112.0	112.0	112.2
Louisville	109.1	107.9	108.1	108.3
Syracuse	108.7	107.6	107.4	107.9
Wake Forest	107.2	106.7	106.6	106.8
Boston College	99.0	100.6	98.0	99.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	116.1	114.7	115.8	115.5
Pittsburgh	115.2	113.9	113.3	114.1
North Carolina	107.3	107.6	107.3	107.4
Virginia	102.3	102.4	100.3	101.7
Virginia Tech	100.5	101.0	98.4	100.0
Georgia Tech	94.8	94.6	92.8	94.0
Duke	89.4	92.0	86.8	89.4
ACC	107.1	107.0	106.1	106.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	118.8	117.8	118.9	118.5
Oklahoma St.	117.0	115.5	116.8	116.4
Baylor	115.3	114.0	114.5	114.6
Texas	113.0	112.1	111.9	112.3
Kansas St.	112.8	111.3	111.8	112.0
T C U	111.4	109.9	110.1	110.4
Iowa St.	109.3	109.2	109.5	109.3
Texas Tech	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
West Virginia	104.1	103.7	102.6	103.5
Kansas	101.4	99.3	98.4	99.7
Big 12	111.1	109.9	110.3	110.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	127.2	125.2	127.6	126.6
Michigan	124.5	123.0	124.5	124.0
Michigan St.	118.6	117.4	116.7	117.6
Penn St.	115.8	115.7	115.4	115.6
Maryland	110.2	110.3	109.9	110.1
Rutgers	103.1	102.4	100.3	101.9
Indiana	101.6	101.0	98.6	100.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Purdue	116.7	115.5	114.7	115.7
Wisconsin	115.8	115.1	114.8	115.3
Minnesota	114.6	114.0	115.0	114.5
Iowa	113.7	112.2	111.7	112.5
Illinois	105.6	106.2	103.9	105.2
Nebraska	104.3	104.2	103.0	103.8
Northwestern	99.2	100.3	97.1	98.9
Big Ten	112.2	111.6	110.9	111.6
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.1	98.3	99.7	98.7
W. Kentucky	97.5	97.3	100.2	98.3
U T S A	97.7	96.3	97.7	97.3
Florida Atlantic	89.0	90.6	89.2	89.6
North Texas	86.9	86.1	88.0	87.0
U T E P	85.2	84.8	85.2	85.1
Middle Tennessee	83.2	84.4	84.5	84.0
Louisiana Tech	81.4	82.9	79.9	81.4
Rice	80.5	79.9	79.4	79.9
Charlotte	77.8	78.9	77.2	78.0
Florida Int’l.	65.0	67.8	63.2	65.3
CUSA	85.7	86.1	85.9	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Average	Average
BYU	113.6	111.7	113.7	113.0
Notre Dame	112.8	110.9	113.0	112.2
Army	97.0	97.4	97.3	97.2
Liberty	95.2	97.1	97.6	96.6
Connecticut	78.8	80.0	76.1	78.3
New Mexico St.	75.0	77.1	74.5	75.5
Massachusetts	72.2	72.6	69.7	71.5
Independents	92.1	92.4	91.7	92.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	90.9	93.8	93.6	92.8
Kent St.	87.4	89.7	87.7	88.3
Bowling Green	86.9	85.6	86.0	86.2
Ohio	84.4	86.8	86.1	85.8
Buffalo	82.0	84.6	83.7	83.4
Akron	76.4	77.1	75.7	76.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	96.9	97.2	97.3	97.1
Toledo	95.7	97.0	97.5	96.7
Western Mich.	92.6	93.8	93.9	93.4
Central Mich.	91.4	93.3	94.2	93.0
Eastern Mich.	86.1	86.6	85.8	86.2
Ball St.	83.1	84.2	83.1	83.4
MAC	87.8	89.1	88.7	88.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Air Force	104.1	104.0	105.6	104.6
Boise St.	104.2	103.2	104.8	104.1
Utah St.	89.7	89.9	90.4	90.0
Colorado St.	85.2	86.1	85.4	85.5
Wyoming	83.7	86.2	84.9	84.9
New Mexico	83.4	83.9	82.2	83.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.3	102.6	104.5	103.5
San Diego St.	95.4	95.3	95.6	95.5
U N L V	89.2	86.9	89.0	88.4
San Jose St.	87.6	88.0	88.8	88.1
Nevada	85.7	87.8	85.8	86.4
Hawaii	72.0	73.3	72.7	72.6
MWC	90.3	90.6	90.8	90.6
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.0	114.7	117.6	116.1
Oregon	111.4	110.9	110.6	111.0
U S C	109.4	110.0	110.2	109.9
U C L A	108.9	108.8	110.5	109.4
Oregon St.	108.5	108.0	109.4	108.6
Washington	105.5	106.6	106.9	106.3
Arizona St.	104.8	104.6	105.8	105.1
Washington St.	101.4	102.0	102.2	101.9
Stanford	102.6	100.0	100.6	101.1
California	97.6	97.8	98.8	98.1
Arizona	96.4	96.3	96.3	96.3
Colorado	94.1	92.2	92.9	93.1
Pac-12	104.7	104.3	105.2	104.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.2	131.5	134.8	133.2
Tennessee	116.9	116.8	117.2	117.0
Kentucky	112.8	113.6	114.3	113.6
South Carolina	109.6	108.8	109.2	109.2
Florida	106.2	108.1	106.7	107.0
Missouri	102.2	102.6	101.0	102.0
Vanderbilt	93.9	94.9	92.0	93.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.1	127.9	130.4	129.1
Arkansas	116.3	114.5	116.7	115.8
Mississippi St.	115.9	114.3	114.7	114.9
L S U	114.1	113.2	113.1	113.5
Ole Miss	114.2	112.2	112.6	113.0
Texas A&M	110.5	111.8	111.8	111.4
Auburn	110.0	108.5	108.7	109.1
SEC	113.2	112.8	113.1	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	98.6	100.5	101.3	100.2
Georgia St.	98.9	98.0	101.5	99.5
Marshall	95.6	97.0	96.3	96.3
James Madison	92.5	94.4	97.4	94.8
Coastal Carolina	92.5	94.0	94.8	93.8
Ga. Southern	90.5	90.0	91.0	90.5
Old Dominion	90.4	90.4	90.4	90.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	96.9	97.4	99.5	98.0
Troy	91.0	91.2	92.3	91.5
South Alabama	89.7	90.2	91.3	90.4
Southern Miss.	86.2	86.9	86.8	86.6
Arkansas St.	83.8	85.3	84.5	84.5
UL-Monroe	82.6	82.9	81.7	82.4
Texas St.	80.2	81.4	81.0	80.9
Sun Belt	90.7	91.4	92.1	91.4

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	111.6
3	Big 12	110.4
4	Atlantic Coast	106.7
5	Pac-12	104.7
6	American Athletic	98.2
7	Independents	92.1
8	Sun Belt	91.4
9	Mountain West	90.6
10	Mid-American	88.6
11	Conference USA	85.9

A Tale of Two Conferences

In the mid 1990’s, Conference USA formed when the old Metro Conference dissolved. The league was founded to combine two former basketball conferences into a Midwestern league. At the time, it also had some rather successful football teams. Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Southern Miss., UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, East Carolina, and Army were all early members of the new league. Then, TCU joined and had a top 5 season in the early 2000’s. The league saw early success, and with that, the Big East raided CUSA and took Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida. Seeing the writing on the wall, TCU bolted for the Mountain West, where an incredible rivalry with Boise State ensued. CUSA then expanded with new members, making the league quite relevant, as the new teams provided numerous upsets over Power Conference opponents. Central Florida, SMU, Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, and Marshall joined the league and all found some successful seasons. Then, the American Athletic Conference formed, and once again, CUSA lost some significant teams in Memphis, Tulane, Houston, Central Florida, SMU, and Tulsa.

The Sun Belt Conference began as a basketball league back in the mid-1970’s, and in its early years, the league jumped over many others in the Low and Mid-Major area. There was a year where four SBC teams made the NCAA Tournament. The league saw teams come and go, as it struggled financially. They even kicked New Orleans out of the conference because the Privateers did not have a Division 1 level gymnasium.

The Sun Belt decided to sponsor football beginning in the early part of this century. Almost annually, the makeup of the league changed. Teams as far west as Utah State and Idaho joined the conference at times, as they played in the same league with teams from Florida. When Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, and UAB all left the Sun Belt for CUSA in a matter of a couple of seasons, it looked like CUSA would force the SBC back to a basketball conference, while CUSA continued to thrive with some respectable programs.

Then, something happened. About the time that the SEC was becoming a super league and superior to all others, and all their member schools began recruiting nationally instead of regionally, a lot of really good Southeastern recruits started to lose out to the elite 5-star and high 4-star talents from all over America. These low 4-star and 3-star players had once filled SEC rosters, but now they needed to find other schools. Many of them chose to stay near their homes, and that mean Sun Belt Conference schools.

Schools like Troy, Georgia Southern, and what was still known as Louisiana-Lafayette started getting players that used to go to Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. The addition of Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State to the league as they moved to FBS brought some solid former FCS programs that further strengthened this league. All of a sudden, the SBC passed CUSA, and it was CUSA that almost died when the 2021 expansion routlette began. Texas and Oklahoma decided to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, so the Big 12 robbed the AAC of its three best schools, and then the AAC robbed CUSA of its largest market schools. Three schools, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss quickly petitioned the Sun Belt for admission and were fast-tracked. Then the league found a real diamond in the rough in James Madison. Meanwhile, CUSA had to look for crumbs just to survive. They secured markers for FCS schools Jacksonville State and Sam Houston, and then added Liberty and New Mexico State as future members. It was almost too late, because both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee came very close to leaving for the Mid-American Conference.

In just five or six years, the Sun Belt rose from weakeast FBS league by far to possibly the strongest. Once Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida leave the American, the SBC should be better than the new AAC with CUSA teams. It has already passed the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Conference USA football as a whole might not be as strong as the FCS Missouri Valley Football Conference once the league is reduced to ashes by the departures of its top markets.

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 9-10, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Central Florida	Louisville	-0.4	1.7	1.7
New Mexico	Boise St.	-17.8	-16.0	-19.8
Ohio St.	Arkansas St.	48.8	45.1	48.9
Georgia St.	North Carolina	-5.8	-7.1	-2.7
Penn St.	Ohio	34.3	31.0	31.2
Army	UTSA	2.7	4.9	3.4
Miami (Fla.)	Southern Miss.	34.5	32.4	33.8
Northwestern	Duke	17.8	16.3	18.8
Kansas St.	Missouri	10.4	8.8	10.3
Arkansas	South Carolina	9.1	7.7	9.5
Texas	Alabama	-15.6	-15.5	-18.8
Vanderbilt	Wake Forest	-8.4	-6.4	-9.5
Central Michigan	South Alabama	9.0	10.8	11.0
Ball St.	Western Michigan	-7.0	-7.2	-8.5
Notre Dame	Marshall	28.3	25.1	27.8
Charlotte	Maryland	-29.2	-27.9	-29.2
Pittsburgh	Tennessee	1.5	0.2	-0.7
Navy	Memphis	-3.2	-4.2	-4.4
Air Force	Colorado	7.3	9.1	9.8
Texas A&M	Appalachian St.	20.0	19.6	18.8
Wisconsin	Washington St.	22.3	21.0	20.5
Colorado St.	Middle Tennessee	10.1	9.9	9.2
Michigan St.	Akron	44.3	41.8	42.4
Illinois	Virginia	3.1	3.4	2.7
California	UNLV	11.8	14.7	13.6
Texas Tech	Houston	5.9	4.9	5.1
Iowa	Iowa St.	8.7	7.2	6.5
East Carolina	Old Dominion	12.6	12.1	13.5
West Virginia	Kansas	6.8	8.9	9.1
Liberty	UAB	-1.7	0.1	-1.2
Florida	Kentucky	-2.2	-1.1	-2.8
Toledo	Massachusetts	21.1	21.9	25.6
Connecticut	Syracuse	-26.3	-23.5	-27.7
Oklahoma	Kent St.	35.0	31.4	35.0
Louisiana	Eastern Michigan	10.4	10.2	13.3
Tulsa	Northern Illinois	1.0	-0.1	0.4
Texas St.	Florida Int’l.	14.8	12.6	17.2
Auburn	San Jose St.	28.2	26.4	26.1
Nebraska	Georgia Southern	23.0	23.6	21.2
Stanford	USC	-1.4	-5.0	-4.2
Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.	14.9	13.4	13.2
Michigan	Hawaii	55.5	52.6	54.8
Virginia Tech	Boston College	1.7	0.3	-0.2
UTEP	New Mexico St.	12.8	9.9	13.9
BYU	Baylor	1.2	0.5	1.9
Fresno St.	Oregon St.	-2.0	-2.3	-1.5
Arizona	Mississippi St.	-15.9	-13.9	-14.4

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Minnesota	Western Illinois	32.5
North Carolina St.	Charleston Southern	34.1
Utah	Southern Utah	34.8
Temple	Lafayette	9.7
Clemson	Furman	34.2
Cincinnati	Kennesaw St.	29.7
Georgia	Samford	42.3
Washington	Portland St.	23.8
Purdue	Indiana St.	30.1
Rutgers	Wagner	38.4
Wyoming	Northern Colorado	22.4
Bowling Green	Eastern Kentucky	5.8
James Madison	Norfolk St.	32.7
UCLA	Alabama St.	36.8
Nevada	Incarnate Word	10.2
Buffalo	Holy Cross	9.7
Miami (O)	Robert Morris	29.2
Coastal Carolina	Gardner-Webb	29.5
Florida Atlantic	Southeast Louisiana	10.1
Ole Miss	Central Arkansas	29.7
Georgia Tech	Western Carolina	18.8
Utah St.	Weber St.	9.8
Tulane	Alcorn St.	23.7
SMU	Lamar	39.5
South Florida	Howard	26.6
Troy	Alabama A&M	25.3
Louisiana Tech	Stephen F. Austin	10.1
LSU	Southern	32.4
North Texas	Texas Southern	27.1
Rice	McNeese St.	6.6
TCU	Tarleton	31.2
Indiana	Idaho	21.5
San Diego St.	Idaho St.	25.9
UL-Monroe	Nicholls St.	7.5
Oregon	Eastern Washington	21.6

Bye Weeks

Florida St.

Western Kentucky

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	133.4
2	Alabama	130.8
3	Ohio St.	127.9
4	Michigan	123.7
5	Clemson	120.8
6	Oklahoma	118.8
7	Wisconsin	117.9
8	Notre Dame	117.2
9	Michigan St.	117.1
10	Tennessee	116.9
11	NC State	116.4
12	Miami (Fla.)	116.4
13	Oklahoma St.	116.2
14	Arkansas	115.4
15	Penn St.	115.3
16	Utah	115.1
17	Baylor	114.7
18	Purdue	114.7
19	Mississippi St.	114.5
20	Texas A&M	114.4
21	Pittsburgh	114.2
22	Iowa	114.0
23	Minnesota	113.7
24	BYU	112.9
25	Kentucky	112.8
26	L S U	112.2
27	Florida St.	111.9
28	Ole Miss	111.5
29	Cincinnati	111.4
30	Texas	111.2
31	Auburn	110.9
32	Kansas St.	110.7
33	T C U	109.7
34	Maryland	109.7
35	South Carolina	109.6
36	U C L A	109.3
37	U S C	108.7
38	Iowa St.	108.5
39	Oregon St.	108.5
40	Oregon	108.5
41	Louisville	107.9
42	Texas Tech	107.8
43	Florida	107.8
44	Nebraska	107.4
45	North Carolina	107.3
46	Syracuse	107.3
47	UCF	105.9
48	Wake Forest	105.5
49	Washington	105.3
50	Arizona St.	105.3
51	Houston	105.0
52	SMU	105.0
53	West Virginia	104.1
54	Boise St.	104.0
55	Missouri	103.9
56	Fresno St.	103.6
57	Illinois	103.5
58	Virginia	103.4
59	Air Force	102.4
60	Stanford	102.2
61	Northwestern	101.2
62	East Carolina	101.0
63	Indiana	100.9
64	Boston College	100.8
65	Rutgers	100.7
66	Georgia St.	99.6
67	Washington St.	99.6
68	U A B	99.4
69	Kansas	98.8
70	Tulane	98.5
71	California	98.4
72	Virginia Tech	98.4
73	W. Kentucky	98.1
74	Appalachian St.	98.0
75	Army	97.6
76	N. Illinois	97.3
77	U T S A	96.9
78	Arizona	96.8
79	Louisiana	96.6
80	Memphis	96.3
81	Liberty	96.0
82	Colorado	95.7
83	Central Mich.	95.6
84	Coastal Carolina	95.5
85	San Diego St.	95.3
86	Vanderbilt	94.9
87	Tulsa	94.7
88	Toledo	94.6
89	Georgia Tech	94.1
90	USF	93.7
91	Utah St.	93.5
92	James Madison	93.5
93	Miami (Ohio)	93.5
94	Western Mich.	93.5
95	Marshall	93.1
96	Troy	91.6
97	Old Dominion	90.8
98	Navy	89.9
99	Nevada	88.6
100	Colorado St.	88.5
101	Florida Atlantic	88.2
102	U N L V	88.1
103	Kent St.	88.0
104	Ga. Southern	87.9
105	Eastern Mich.	87.8
106	South Alabama	87.8
107	San Jose St.	87.0
108	Bowling Green	86.9
109	North Texas	86.8
110	Duke	86.5
111	Ohio	86.1
112	Southern Miss.	85.8
113	U T E P	85.4
114	Wyoming	84.9
115	Buffalo	84.9
116	Ball St.	83.4
117	Arkansas St.	83.3
118	New Mexico	83.2
119	Middle Tennessee	81.8
120	UL-Monroe	81.2
121	Louisiana Tech	80.2
122	Texas St.	79.5
123	Connecticut	78.9
124	Charlotte	78.4
125	Temple	78.0
126	Rice	77.9
127	Akron	77.2
128	New Mexico St.	75.2
129	Massachusetts	74.3
130	Hawaii	72.9
131	Florida Int’l.	67.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.2	110.3	112.8	111.4
UCF	105.4	106.1	106.2	105.9
Houston	104.8	104.3	106.0	105.0
SMU	105.1	104.3	105.5	105.0
East Carolina	100.8	100.4	101.8	101.0
Tulane	99.0	98.3	98.3	98.5
Memphis	96.4	96.6	96.0	96.3
Tulsa	95.0	94.3	94.9	94.7
USF	94.7	93.1	93.5	93.7
Navy	90.7	89.9	89.1	89.9
Temple	78.0	80.4	75.5	78.0
AAC	98.3	98.0	98.2	98.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.6	120.5	121.4	120.8
NC State	116.7	115.7	116.8	116.4
Florida St.	112.3	111.7	111.7	111.9
Louisville	108.8	107.4	107.5	107.9
Syracuse	108.2	106.8	106.8	107.3
Wake Forest	106.0	105.3	105.3	105.5
Boston College	100.4	102.2	99.8	100.8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Fla.)	116.9	115.5	116.7	116.4
Pittsburgh	115.3	114.0	113.4	114.2
North Carolina	107.3	107.6	107.0	107.3
Virginia	103.9	104.1	102.2	103.4
Virginia Tech	99.1	99.4	96.6	98.4
Georgia Tech	94.9	94.7	92.9	94.1
Duke	86.6	89.2	83.7	86.5
ACC	106.9	106.7	105.8	106.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.1	117.9	119.3	118.8
Oklahoma St.	116.9	115.2	116.4	116.2
Baylor	115.4	114.1	114.6	114.7
Texas	112.0	111.0	110.5	111.2
Kansas St.	111.6	110.2	110.4	110.7
T C U	110.7	109.2	109.4	109.7
Iowa St.	108.5	108.4	108.7	108.5
Texas Tech	108.2	106.7	108.6	107.8
West Virginia	104.5	104.3	103.4	104.1
Kansas	100.7	98.4	97.3	98.8
Big 12	110.7	109.5	109.9	110.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.4	126.3	129.0	127.9
Michigan	124.2	122.7	124.2	123.7
Michigan St.	118.3	116.8	116.1	117.1
Penn St.	115.7	115.3	114.9	115.3
Maryland	109.9	109.8	109.4	109.7
Indiana	102.1	101.5	99.1	100.9
Rutgers	101.9	101.2	99.1	100.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.4	117.7	117.4	117.9
Purdue	115.7	114.5	113.7	114.7
Iowa	115.2	113.7	113.2	114.0
Minnesota	113.8	113.2	114.2	113.7
Nebraska	107.9	107.9	106.6	107.4
Illinois	104.0	104.5	102.0	103.5
Northwestern	101.4	102.5	99.6	101.2
Big Ten	112.6	112.0	111.3	112.0
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.7	98.9	100.5	99.4
W. Kentucky	97.3	97.1	100.0	98.1
U T S A	97.5	95.9	97.3	96.9
Florida Atlantic	87.6	89.2	87.8	88.2
North Texas	86.7	85.9	87.8	86.8
U T E P	85.5	84.9	85.8	85.4
Middle Tennessee	81.0	82.1	82.2	81.8
Louisiana Tech	80.2	81.7	78.7	80.2
Charlotte	78.1	79.4	77.7	78.4
Rice	78.5	77.9	77.4	77.9
Florida Int’l.	66.7	69.8	65.0	67.2
CUSA	85.3	85.7	85.5	85.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	117.8	115.9	118.0	117.2
BYU	113.5	111.6	113.6	112.9
Army	97.2	97.8	97.7	97.6
Liberty	94.6	96.5	96.8	96.0
Connecticut	79.3	80.8	76.7	78.9
New Mexico St.	74.7	77.0	73.9	75.2
Massachusetts	75.0	75.5	72.4	74.3
Independents	93.2	93.6	92.7	93.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.6	94.5	94.3	93.5
Kent St.	87.1	89.6	87.3	88.0
Bowling Green	87.6	86.3	86.7	86.9
Ohio	84.5	87.2	86.6	86.1
Buffalo	83.5	86.1	85.2	84.9
Akron	77.0	78.0	76.6	77.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.0	97.4	97.5	97.3
Central Mich.	93.8	95.9	97.0	95.6
Toledo	93.6	94.8	95.5	94.6
Western Mich.	92.6	93.8	94.0	93.5
Eastern Mich.	87.7	88.3	87.4	87.8
Ball St.	83.1	84.2	83.0	83.4
MAC	88.3	89.7	89.3	89.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.2	103.0	104.9	104.0
Air Force	102.0	101.9	103.4	102.4
Utah St.	93.2	93.4	93.9	93.5
Colorado St.	88.1	89.1	88.4	88.5
Wyoming	83.7	86.2	84.9	84.9
New Mexico	83.4	84.1	82.1	83.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.4	102.7	104.7	103.6
San Diego St.	95.2	95.1	95.4	95.3
Nevada	87.9	90.0	88.0	88.6
U N L V	89.0	86.5	88.6	88.1
San Jose St.	86.5	86.9	87.6	87.0
Hawaii	72.3	73.6	73.0	72.9
MWC	90.7	91.0	91.2	91.0
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	115.0	113.7	116.6	115.1
U C L A	108.8	108.7	110.4	109.3
U S C	108.2	109.0	109.0	108.7
Oregon St.	108.4	107.9	109.2	108.5
Oregon	108.9	108.4	108.1	108.5
Washington	104.5	105.6	105.9	105.3
Arizona St.	104.9	104.9	106.2	105.3
Stanford	103.8	101.0	101.8	102.2
Washington St.	99.1	99.7	99.9	99.6
California	97.8	98.2	99.2	98.4
Arizona	96.7	96.8	96.8	96.8
Colorado	96.7	94.8	95.6	95.7
Pac-12	104.4	104.1	104.9	104.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.4	131.7	135.0	133.4
Tennessee	116.8	116.7	117.1	116.9
Kentucky	112.1	112.9	113.4	112.8
South Carolina	109.9	109.3	109.7	109.6
Florida	106.9	108.8	107.6	107.8
Missouri	104.1	104.4	103.1	103.9
Vanderbilt	95.1	96.3	93.3	94.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.6	129.5	132.3	130.8
Arkansas	116.0	114.0	116.2	115.4
Mississippi St.	115.6	113.8	114.2	114.5
Texas A&M	113.5	114.9	114.9	114.4
L S U	112.8	111.9	111.8	112.2
Ole Miss	112.7	110.7	111.1	111.5
Auburn	111.8	110.3	110.6	110.9
SEC	113.7	113.2	113.6	113.5
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia St.	98.9	98.0	101.8	99.6
Appalachian St.	96.5	98.3	99.1	98.0
Coastal Carolina	94.2	95.7	96.5	95.5
James Madison	91.2	93.1	96.1	93.5
Marshall	92.4	93.8	93.1	93.1
Old Dominion	90.7	90.8	90.8	90.8
Ga. Southern	87.9	87.3	88.4	87.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	95.6	96.0	98.2	96.6
Troy	91.1	91.3	92.4	91.6
South Alabama	87.3	87.6	88.5	87.8
Southern Miss.	85.4	86.1	85.9	85.8
Arkansas St.	82.6	84.2	83.1	83.3
UL-Monroe	81.4	81.7	80.5	81.2
Texas St.	79.0	79.9	79.7	79.5
Sun Belt	89.6	90.3	91.0	90.3

Rating of Conferences

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.5
2	Big Ten	112.0
3	Big 12	110.0
4	Atlantic Coast	106.5
5	Pac-12	104.4
6	American Athletic	98.1
7	Independents	93.2
8	Mountain West	91.0
9	Sun Belt	90.3
10	Mid-American	89.1
11	Conference USA	85.5

Playoff Projections

#1: Alabama

#2: Georgia

#3: Ohio St.

#4: Clemson

PiRate Picks–September 1-5, 2022

You know what they say about a broken clock being accurate twice a day? The PiRate Ratings happened to hit the right time on our broken clock in week one. We began the season with three totals’ plays in Week 0, and by luck, all three won. So, we start the season 3-0 against the spread, but are our picks a broken clock that happened to get lucky and be broken on the right time, or did we legitimately begin the season on a winning note?

In most years, our picks begin seasons on a somewhat mediocre beginning and then hit a hot spot in October and early November. What are we to make of a 3-0 start, where if we had begun with an imaginary bank account of $1,000 and wagered $100 on each of the three picks, we would have $1,300 in our account today? Maybe, if we were smart enough, we’d cash in our winning 30% profit and go away for the season. Not many people can make a 30% profit on an investment in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub. In actuality a 30% profit on $0 is still $0. We could lose every pick we make the rest of the season, and we will have the same amount of real money we would have if we won every wager the rest of the year, because out real investment in this is $0. We never wager real money on these picks, and please don’t do so either.

Some of you do wager for real. We hope this site is merely an addendum to your process.

We have chosen three more selections in Week 1 of the College Football Season, and the three selections involve three different types of wagers. We are going with one side, one total, and one Money Line Parlay with a potential payoff of 141.77%.

Selection #1: Florida + 2 1/2 vs. Utah

Utah probably has three key games this year, where if the Utes go 3-0, they might be 13-0 when the College Football Playoff Committee chooses the four big teams. This is one of those three. I’d really like to see this game move to 3 1/2 points, because about 1 of every 11 college football games end with a 3-point spread. However, this one is a game where we believe the wrong team might be favored. Florida was much better than their record last year. The Gators basically mailed it in the second half of the year, and Dan Mullen was shown the door. New coach Billy Napier has restored the faith at the Swamp. While this Gator team has some vulnerable areas, maybe on the offensive side of the ball, the thought here is that the defense will be fired up and play above their heads in Napier’s first game. While the average of the three PiRate Ratings show Utah to be more than a 6-point favorite in this game, the thought here is that the Gators will be a touchdown better than their real worth, and that makes Florida a slight favorite. Getting 2 1/2 points when the underdog looks like a 55% outright winner is enough to work and make this a pick.

Selection #2: Michigan and Colorado St. UNDER 61 1/2

The question here to us is, “Can Michigan score over 50 points in this game?” The reason we ask this is that Colorado State is likely to score 10 points or less trying to break in a new offense with a new coach and without the necessary players to make it work? Michigan figures to win this game by more than 4 touchdowns, more likely 5 touchdowns. A score of 45-10 looks about right here, and that’s 6 1/2 points less than the total for this game.

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay–3 games at +141.77

Pittsburgh over West Virginia

TCU over Colorado

Houston over UTSA

The Backyard Brawl to start the season is an incredible first game rivalry. Pittsburgh lost a lot of talent off last year’s team, but the Panthers had a good bit of depth. Meanwhile, West Virginia is slowly building up their talent level, but the Mountaineers have a long way to go. In fact, this could be the year where the game with Kansas determines which team finishes last in the Big 12. Pittsburgh looks 10-13 points better to start the season.

TCU starts a new era in Fort Worth for the first time since 2000. Sonny Dykes tries to give the Horned Frogs a little more offense and brings more of a passing game, air-raid style. After surprising some people in the 2020 Covid year and guiding the Buffs to four consecutive wins to start his tenure in Boulder, Colorado has since gone 4-10. This game looks like a 10-14 point win for TCU.

Houston figures to contend along with Central Florida as Cincinnati’s top competitors in the American Athletic Conference. While UTSA is a top of the food chain team in CUSA, they are not ready to stake a claim to second best team in the Lonestar State after Texas A&M. Even playing in San Antonio, the Cougars are at least a touchdown better than the Roadrunners.

Season to Date

Beginning Bankroll (not real): $1,000

Imaginary Investment Last Week: $300

Outcome 3-0

Imaginary return $600

New Bank Account: $1,300

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sept. 1-5, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tennessee	Ball St.	33.5	32.0	33.5
Pittsburgh	West Virginia	13.7	12.6	13.3
Purdue	Penn St.	4.7	4.1	4.0
Missouri	Louisiana Tech	26.7	25.1	27.2
Minnesota	New Mexico St.	42.0	39.0	43.1
Oklahoma St.	Central Michigan	28.2	24.0	24.4
Indiana	Illinois	0.3	-0.8	-0.7
Old Dominion	Virginia Tech	-9.0	-9.4	-6.4
Michigan St.	Western Michigan	29.8	26.9	26.2
Duke	Temple	5.8	5.8	5.0
Colorado	TCU	-7.3	-7.6	-6.6
Ole Miss	Troy	25.7	23.5	22.8
Florida	Utah	-7.0	-3.5	-8.6
South Florida	BYU	-12.9	-12.5	-14.0
Syracuse	Louisville	-2.9	-3.3	-3.5
Ohio St.	Notre Dame	14.2	14.1	15.2
Maryland	Buffalo	30.1	27.4	28.0
Michigan	Colorado St.	38.2	35.0	37.4
Appalachian St.	North Carolina	-10.0	-8.4	-6.7
Boston College	Rutgers	2.2	5.1	5.0
James Madison	Middle Tennessee	4.0	4.7	7.7
Coastal Carolina	Army	-2.8	-2.1	-1.2
Kentucky	Miami (O)	23.5	21.2	21.9
South Carolina	Georgia St.	13.1	13.3	9.3
North Texas	SMU	-10.5	-10.4	-9.3
Ohio	Florida Atlantic	-0.8	0.4	1.4
East Carolina	North Carolina St.	-16.3	-15.7	-15.6
Wyoming	Tulsa	-10.1	-6.3	-8.8
USC	Rice	27.1	28.5	29.0
UCLA	Bowling Green	23.8	25.0	26.3
Oregon St.	Boise St.	4.1	4.6	3.8
Washington	Kent St.	19.8	17.8	20.8
San Diego St.	Arizona	6.4	6.4	6.9
Nevada	Texas St.	9.2	10.5	8.1
Georgia (Atlanta)	Oregon	21.4	19.8	23.8
Southern Miss.	Liberty	-7.8	-9.3	-10.3
Alabama	Utah St.	37.2	35.5	38.0
Oklahoma	UTEP	37.2	36.6	37.4
Mississippi St.	Memphis	20.6	18.0	19.0
Texas	UL-Monroe	32.0	30.3	31.0
Arkansas	Cincinnati	7.5	6.5	6.2
UTSA	Houston	-5.9	-7.4	-7.9
Tulane	Massachusetts	25.9	24.3	27.8
Hawaii	Western Kentucky	-18.5	-16.5	-20.2
LSU (New Orleans)	Florida St.	3.4	3.3	3.5
Georgia Tech	Clemson	-21.7	-21.5	-24.4

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Akron	St. Francis (PA)	8.3
Central Florida	S. Carolina St.	29.5
Florida Int’l.	Bryant	8.8
Toledo	Long Island	39.0
Wake Forest	VMI	31.7
Northern Illinois	Eastern Illinois	28.0
UAB	Alabama A&M	28.8
Arizona St.	Northern Arizona	26.1
Fresno St.	Cal Poly SLO	31.3
San Jose St.	Portland St.	12.7
Eastern Michigan	Eastern Kentucky	13.2
Charlotte	William & Mary	3.8
Kansas	Tennessee Tech	25.1
Air Force	Northern Iowa	15.3
New Mexico	Maine	4.6
Texas A&M	Sam Houston	27.7
Connecticut	Central Connecticut	13.0
Iowa	South Dakota St.	16.7
Navy	Delaware	18.1
Virginia	Richmond	22.1
Iowa St.	SE Missouri St.	33.2
Nebraska	North Dakota	21.1
Miami (Fla.)	Bethune-Cookman	38.6
Marshall	Norfolk St.	28.1
California	UC Davis	18.6
South Alabama	Nicholls St.	9.7
Georgia Southern	Morgan St.	28.6
Auburn	Mercer	28.2
Vanderbilt	Elon	17.2
Kansas St.	South Dakota	23.2
Wisconsin	Illinois St.	31.3
Louisiana	SE Louisiana	18.1
Baylor	Albany	38.5
Arkansas St.	Grambling	21.8
Stanford	Colgate	30.3
Texas Tech	Murray St.	30.0
Washington St.	Idaho	25.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	130.5
2	Alabama	129.1
3	Ohio St.	128.3
4	Michigan	123.0
5	Clemson	120.0
6	Oklahoma	119.1
7	NC State	118.1
8	Michigan St.	117.7
9	Wisconsin	117.6
10	Oklahoma St.	117.5
11	Notre Dame	116.8
12	Utah	116.6
13	Purdue	115.9
14	Arkansas	115.3
15	Tennessee	115.1
16	Pittsburgh	115.0
17	Iowa	114.7
18	Miami (Fla.)	114.7
19	Penn St.	114.6
20	Texas A&M	114.3
21	Mississippi St.	113.9
22	Minnesota	113.6
23	Baylor	113.5
24	Kentucky	112.7
25	L S U	112.5
26	Ole Miss	112.2
27	Florida St.	111.6
28	BYU	111.5
29	Cincinnati	111.5
30	Oregon	111.3
31	Auburn	111.2
32	Louisville	111.0
33	Kansas St.	110.3
34	Texas	110.2
35	Maryland	110.0
36	U C L A	109.1
37	South Carolina	109.1
38	Iowa St.	108.7
39	North Carolina	108.2
40	T C U	107.8
41	Nebraska	107.6
42	Oregon St.	107.2
43	Texas Tech	106.7
44	Florida	106.7
45	Boise St.	106.0
46	U S C	105.9
47	Houston	105.5
48	Wake Forest	105.4
49	Washington	104.9
50	Syracuse	104.8
51	Arizona St.	104.5
52	UCF	104.4
53	Illinois	103.8
54	Missouri	103.7
55	Virginia	103.6
56	Fresno St.	103.5
57	West Virginia	103.3
58	Stanford	102.2
59	SMU	102.0
60	Washington St.	101.5
61	Air Force	101.4
62	Northwestern	101.2
63	Boston College	101.2
64	Indiana	100.9
65	Georgia St.	100.1
66	Rutgers	100.1
67	East Carolina	99.8
68	Virginia Tech	99.7
69	Army	99.0
70	California	98.3
71	N. Illinois	98.2
72	Tulane	98.2
73	U A B	98.1
74	Appal. St.	97.8
75	San Diego St.	97.7
76	Colorado	97.6
77	Kansas	97.3
78	Memphis	97.2
79	Liberty	97.0
80	Louisiana	96.9
81	W. Kentucky	96.7
82	U T S A	96.5
83	Tulsa	95.5
84	Vanderbilt	95.4
85	USF	95.4
86	Utah St.	95.2
87	Georgia Tech	95.0
88	Central Mich.	95.0
89	Toledo	94.5
90	Arizona	94.1
91	Coastal Car.	94.0
92	Miami (Ohio)	93.5
93	Western Mich.	93.1
94	Navy	92.2
95	Marshall	92.1
96	Troy	91.2
97	North Texas	90.4
98	J. Madison	89.5
99	Old Dominion	89.4
100	Colorado St.	89.2
101	Florida Atlantic	88.6
102	Eastern Mich.	88.5
103	Kent St.	88.4
104	U N L V	88.1
105	Nevada	87.8
106	San Jose St.	87.4
107	Bowling Green	87.1
108	Ga. Southern	86.6
109	Middle Tennessee	86.5
110	Ohio	85.9
111	South Alabama	85.8
112	Southern Miss.	85.3
113	Ball St.	85.1
114	U T E P	85.1
115	Buffalo	84.5
116	Wyoming	84.1
117	Duke	84.1
118	UL-Monroe	82.1
119	Temple	81.1
120	Texas St.	81.0
121	Arkansas St.	80.8
122	Rice	80.7
123	Charlotte	80.7
124	Louisiana Tech	80.4
125	New Mexico	80.2
126	Akron	78.5
127	Connecticut	78.2
128	New Mexico St.	75.3
129	Hawaii	74.8
130	Massachusetts	74.7
131	Florida Int’l.	67.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.3	110.4	112.9	111.5
Houston	105.1	104.8	106.6	105.5
UCF	103.9	104.6	104.7	104.4
SMU	102.3	101.4	102.4	102.0
East Carolina	99.6	99.2	100.5	99.8
Tulane	98.7	97.8	98.0	98.2
Memphis	97.1	97.6	97.0	97.2
Tulsa	95.9	94.9	95.8	95.5
USF	96.3	94.8	95.2	95.4
Navy	93.0	92.2	91.4	92.2
Temple	81.0	83.5	78.7	81.1
AAC	98.6	98.3	98.5	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.8	119.6	120.6	120.0
NC State	118.4	117.4	118.6	118.1
Florida St.	112.1	111.4	111.3	111.6
Louisville	111.8	110.6	110.8	111.0
Wake Forest	105.9	105.2	105.2	105.4
Syracuse	105.9	104.3	104.2	104.8
Boston College	100.6	102.6	100.3	101.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	116.0	114.7	114.3	115.0
Miami (Fla.)	115.2	113.8	115.0	114.7
North Carolina	108.3	108.5	107.8	108.2
Virginia	104.1	104.3	102.4	103.6
Virginia Tech	100.4	100.8	97.9	99.7
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.6	93.7	95.0
Duke	84.3	86.8	81.2	84.1
ACC	107.0	106.8	105.9	106.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.4	118.2	119.8	119.1
Oklahoma St.	118.3	116.4	117.7	117.5
Baylor	114.2	112.9	113.4	113.5
Kansas St.	111.2	109.8	110.0	110.3
Texas	111.2	110.0	109.5	110.2
Iowa St.	108.7	108.6	108.9	108.7
T C U	108.9	107.3	107.3	107.8
Texas Tech	107.1	105.6	107.5	106.7
West Virginia	103.8	103.6	102.5	103.3
Kansas	99.2	96.9	95.8	97.3
Big 12	110.2	108.9	109.2	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.7	126.7	129.6	128.3
Michigan	123.7	121.9	123.5	123.0
Michigan St.	119.0	117.4	116.8	117.7
Penn St.	115.1	114.6	114.1	114.6
Maryland	110.3	110.1	109.8	110.0
Indiana	102.1	101.5	99.1	100.9
Rutgers	101.4	100.5	98.3	100.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.1	117.4	117.1	117.6
Purdue	116.8	115.7	115.0	115.9
Iowa	115.9	114.4	113.9	114.7
Minnesota	113.7	113.1	114.1	113.6
Nebraska	108.1	108.1	106.8	107.6
Illinois	104.3	104.8	102.3	103.8
Northwestern	101.4	102.5	99.6	101.2
Big Ten	112.8	112.0	111.4	112.1
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	97.4	97.6	99.2	98.1
W. Kentucky	96.0	95.6	98.6	96.7
U T S A	97.2	95.4	96.7	96.5
North Texas	90.2	89.5	91.6	90.4
Florida Atlantic	88.0	89.6	88.1	88.6
Middle Tennessee	85.7	86.8	86.9	86.5
U T E P	85.2	84.6	85.3	85.1
Rice	81.3	80.7	80.2	80.7
Charlotte	80.4	81.7	80.0	80.7
Louisiana Tech	80.3	82.0	78.8	80.4
Florida Int’l.	67.1	70.2	65.4	67.6
CUSA	86.3	86.7	86.5	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	117.5	115.5	117.4	116.8
BYU	112.2	110.2	112.2	111.5
Army	98.6	99.3	99.2	99.0
Liberty	95.4	97.5	98.0	97.0
Connecticut	78.6	80.1	76.0	78.2
New Mexico St.	74.8	77.1	74.0	75.3
Massachusetts	75.3	76.0	72.7	74.7
Independents	93.2	93.7	92.8	93.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.6	94.6	94.4	93.5
Kent St.	87.4	90.2	87.7	88.4
Bowling Green	87.8	86.5	86.9	87.1
Ohio	84.3	87.0	86.5	85.9
Buffalo	83.1	85.8	84.8	84.5
Akron	78.3	79.3	77.9	78.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.9	98.3	98.4	98.2
Central Mich.	93.1	95.4	96.4	95.0
Toledo	93.5	94.7	95.4	94.5
Western Mich.	92.2	93.5	93.6	93.1
Eastern Mich.	88.4	89.0	88.1	88.5
Ball St.	84.7	86.0	84.8	85.1
MAC	88.5	90.0	89.6	89.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	105.0	107.0	106.0
Air Force	101.0	100.9	102.4	101.4
Utah St.	94.8	95.2	95.6	95.2
Colorado St.	88.6	89.9	89.1	89.2
Wyoming	82.8	85.6	84.0	84.1
New Mexico	80.4	81.1	79.1	80.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.3	102.6	104.6	103.5
San Diego St.	97.5	97.5	97.9	97.7
U N L V	89.0	86.5	88.6	88.1
Nevada	87.2	89.3	87.0	87.8
San Jose St.	86.9	87.3	88.0	87.4
Hawaii	74.1	75.6	74.9	74.8
MWC	91.0	91.4	91.5	91.3
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.5	115.0	118.4	116.6
Oregon	111.7	111.4	110.9	111.3
U C L A	108.6	108.5	110.2	109.1
Oregon St.	107.2	106.6	107.8	107.2
U S C	105.4	106.2	106.2	105.9
Washington	104.2	105.0	105.5	104.9
Arizona St.	104.1	104.1	105.4	104.5
Stanford	103.8	101.0	101.8	102.2
Washington St.	101.0	101.6	101.8	101.5
California	97.7	98.1	99.1	98.3
Colorado	98.5	96.7	97.7	97.6
Arizona	94.1	94.1	94.0	94.1
Pac-12	104.4	104.0	104.9	104.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	130.6	128.7	132.2	130.5
Tennessee	115.2	114.9	115.3	115.1
Kentucky	112.1	112.8	113.3	112.7
South Carolina	109.5	108.8	108.9	109.1
Florida	105.9	108.0	106.3	106.7
Missouri	104.0	104.1	103.0	103.7
Vanderbilt	95.6	96.8	93.8	95.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.0	127.7	130.6	129.1
Arkansas	115.9	113.9	116.1	115.3
Texas A&M	113.4	114.8	114.8	114.3
Mississippi St.	115.2	113.1	113.5	113.9
L S U	113.0	112.2	112.2	112.5
Ole Miss	113.4	111.4	111.8	112.2
Auburn	112.1	110.6	110.9	111.2
SEC	113.2	112.7	113.1	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia St.	99.3	98.5	102.6	100.1
Appalachian St.	96.2	98.1	99.0	97.8
Coastal Carolina	92.8	94.2	95.0	94.0
Marshall	91.4	92.8	92.1	92.1
James Madison	87.2	89.1	92.1	89.5
Old Dominion	89.4	89.4	89.5	89.4
Ga. Southern	86.6	86.0	87.1	86.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	95.9	96.3	98.5	96.9
Troy	90.7	90.9	92.0	91.2
South Alabama	85.3	85.6	86.5	85.8
Southern Miss.	85.1	85.6	85.2	85.3
UL-Monroe	82.2	82.7	81.5	82.1
Texas St.	80.4	81.3	81.4	81.0
Arkansas St.	80.1	81.7	80.6	80.8
Sun Belt	88.8	89.4	90.2	89.5

Conference Rankings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	112.1
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Atlantic Coast	106.6
5	Pac-12	104.4
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	93.2
8	Mountain West	91.3
9	Sun Belt	89.5
10	Mid-American	89.4
11	Conference USA	86.5

The Best TV Games This Week

Thursday, September 1
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Pittsburgh	West Virginia
8:00 PM	Fox	Purdue	Penn St.
Friday, September 2
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Michigan St.	Western Michigan
8:00 PM	FS1	Indiana	Illinois
10:00 PM	ESPN	Colorado	TCU
Saturday, September 3
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	ABC	Michigan	Colorado St.
12:00 PM	ESPN	East Carolina	North Carolina St.
12:00 PM	ESPNU	Appalachian St.	North Carolina
12:00 PM	FS1	Iowa	South Dakota St.
3:30 PM	CBS	San Diego St.	Arizona
3:30 PM	ESPN	Arkansas	Cincinnati
3:30 PM	ABC	Georgia (Atl.)	Oregon
3:30 PM	Fox	Oklahoma	UTEP
7:00 PM	ESPN	Florida	Utah
7:30 PM	ESPNU	Mississippi St.	Memphis
7:30 PM	ABC	Ohio St.	Notre Dame
7:30 PM	SECN	Alabama	Utah St.
10:30 PM	ESPN	Oregon St.	Boise St.
10:30 PM	FS1	Washington	Kent St.
Sunday, September 4
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:30 PM	ABC	LSU (New Orleans)	Florida St.
Monday, September 5
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
8:00 PM	ESPN	Georgia Tech	Clemson

Big Ten Conference Preview

Will the Big Ten Conference become the Big Billion? Rumors from multiple sources indicate that this league is on the precipice of signing a TV and media rights package that will be north of a billion dollars. This deal does not include Notre Dame. Should the Irish end up in this league, the Big Ten will dwarf even the SEC in money paid out per school.

USC and UCLA are set to join the league in two years. Whether other teams join as well is anybody’s guess.

Both divisions this year figure to have competitive races. Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to win the East and the league overall, but there are multiple teams capable of upsetting the Buckeyes. Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are strong once again, and it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that at least one of these contenders upsets the Buckeyes.

Maryland has an easy out of conference schedule and has a good chance to gain bowl eligibility. Rutgers and Indiana will bring up the rear.

In the West, five different teams could contend for the division title. Purdue has the benefit of avoiding Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State from the East. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are all about equal in talent this year, while Nebraska could finally return to the plus side of .500. Illinois and Northwestern are one or more excellent recruiting classes away from being contenders.

Big Ten Preseason PiRate Ratings

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.6	126.6	129.5	128.2
Michigan	123.6	121.8	123.4	122.9
Michigan St.	118.9	117.3	116.7	117.6
Penn St.	115.0	114.5	114.0	114.5
Maryland	110.2	110.0	109.7	109.9
Indiana	102.0	101.4	99.0	100.8
Rutgers	101.3	100.4	98.2	100.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.0	117.3	117.0	117.5
Iowa	117.4	115.9	115.4	116.2
Purdue	116.7	115.6	114.9	115.8
Minnesota	113.6	113.0	114.0	113.5
Nebraska	110.1	110.1	109.0	109.7
Illinois	103.0	103.6	101.1	102.5
Northwestern	99.7	100.8	97.7	99.4
Big Ten	112.7	112.0	111.4	112.0

Preseason Official Big Ten Media Poll

		Votes
#	East	1st Place	Overall
1	Ohio St.	36	252
2	Michigan	0	203
3	Penn St.	0	169
4	Michigan St.	0	162
5	Maryland	0	104
6	Rutgers	0	60
7	Indiana	0	58
#	West	1st Place	Overall
1	Wisconsin	31	246
2	Iowa	3	198
3	Minnesota	2	162
4	Purdue	0	153
5	Nebraska	0	123
6	Illinois	0	65
7	Northwestern	0	61
	Championship	Overall
	Ohio St.	36

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

East	Conf.	Overall
Ohio St.	9-0	13-0
Michigan	8-1	11-1
Penn St.	6-3	8-4
Michigan St.	6-3	9-3
Maryland	3-6	6-6
Rutgers	1-8	3-9
Indiana	1-8	3-9
West	Conf.	Overall
Purdue	7-2	10-3
Wisconsin	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	6-3	9-3
Iowa	5-4	8-4
Nebraska	4-5	6-6
Northwestern	1-8	4-8
Illinois	0-9	3-9

PiRate College Football Game Debuts

After months of planning and design, the makers of the PiRate Ratings have created a college football game that can be played by one person in solitaire mode or by two people in head-to-head mode. All teams have been designed to perform as they did in real life using the PiRate Ratings’ Strength of Schedule formula to adjust their statistics to account for quality of opposition.

If you played the Sports Illustrated and Avalon Hill games of Bowl Bound and Pay Dirt, you will find this game a little more strategically involved while a little easier to play, as it used standard dice to see the results.

For the low price of $8, we will send you a zip file with all the charts, rules, and a scoreboard and numbers that you can print out to keep track of the action. We also send you a blank statistics sheet so you can record the action for posterity.

All you need are the dice, or to use one of many different free online dice rollers available online.

Go to https://pirate-football.square.site/ to purchase.

Our debut college game is the 1960-1979 Best of the Big Ten Conference. Here are the teams included in this set.

1963 Illinois–The greatest linebacker of all time, Dick Butkus, played center as well and made All-American with a powerful team

1967 Indiana–One of the most exciting teams of all time, the “Cardiac Kids” kept pulling out late victories week after week until they won a trip to the Rose Bowl

1960 Iowa–Some computer formulas say the Hawkeyes were the best team in the nation, as they beat 7 ranked teams and finished 8-1

1973 Michigan–Bo Schembechler’s Wolverines went 10-0-1 but had to stay home for the Holidays thanks to the archaic Big Ten rules of the time

1966 Michigan St.–Duffy Daugherty stockpiled some of the best talent ever to appear on a Big Ten campus at the same time. Bubba Smith anchored a stellar defense, while Gene Washington stretched defenses with his quickness and deceptive moves

1960 Minnesota–Coach Murray Warmath played for General Robert Neyland at Tennessee and continued to follow the General’s philosophy of playing conservative football and waiting for the other team to make the mistakes. He had a great squad in 1960, featuring the multi-tooled Sandy Stephens, who was the starting quarterback, a starting defensive back, the team’s punter, and the top punt returner. Future All-Pro Bobby Bell led the defensive charge and also opened up running lanes as an offensive lineman

1962 Northwestern–Before he became a multiple national championship winning coach at Notre Dame, Ara Parseghian took the Wildcat to Number 1 in the polls for a couple weeks in 1962

1973 Ohio State–Woody Hayes had no trouble stockpiling talent, and he had it on both sides of the ball in 1973, as the Buckeyes went 10-0-1 with a 21-point win in the Rose Bowl

1967 Purdue–The Boilermakers split the conference championship, as Leroy Keyes may have deserved the Heisman Trophy with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, run the sweep and off-tackle as competently as anybody in the game, and to pull up and throw a halfback option pass like a pro. Having future pro quarterback Mike Phipps made the offense click

1962 Wisconsin-The Badgers came within one close incomplete pass of coming back from a 42-14 deficit to win the Rose Bowl