The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 3

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wake Forest Boston College -6.6 -5.7 -9.3

 

Friday September 14
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Memphis Georgia St. 29.4 28.6 29.4

 

Saturday September 15
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tennessee UTEP 31.7 28.9 31.8
Indiana Ball St. 16.8 13.2 16.6
Maryland Temple 15.9 14.3 14.8
Florida Int’l. Massachusetts -2.0 0.7 -2.7
Toledo Miami (Fla.) -17.1 -13.1 -16.6
Army Hawaii 20.9 19.0 22.6
Penn St. Kent St. 42.6 38.1 43.4
North Carolina Central Florida -9.3 -10.2 -10.2
Charlotte Old Dominion -4.0 -6.0 -3.9
Syracuse Florida St. 0.5 -0.4 -0.3
Iowa St. Oklahoma -9.6 -10.3 -10.9
Nebraska Troy 13.5 10.4 9.3
Kansas Rutgers 3.3 3.1 3.2
Virginia Tech East Carolina 33.5 33.8 34.3
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech -6.6 -5.9 -7.0
Notre Dame Vanderbilt 22.1 17.4 20.3
Virginia Ohio U 9.9 8.8 7.1
Michigan SMU 35.4 35.3 37.8
Appalachian St. Southern Miss. 14.8 13.1 15.6
Oklahoma St. Boise St. 0.4 -1.0 -0.5
Wisconsin BYU 25.2 21.6 24.3
North Carolina St. West Virginia 4.6 4.9 4.8
Minnesota Miami (O) 20.5 17.7 19.3
Auburn LSU 13.4 11.8 15.3
Illinois South Florida -1.7 -5.1 -3.8
Northern Illinois Central Michigan 15.6 13.4 15.4
Clemson Georgia Southern 48.6 44.0 48.9
New Mexico St. New Mexico -8.7 -8.0 -8.3
UAB Tulane -5.5 -3.2 -4.9
Baylor Duke -9.8 -9.6 -9.8
Florida Colorado St. 28.6 25.0 28.6
Texas Tech Houston 3.6 0.6 1.0
Kansas St. UTSA 29.8 23.4 28.0
Arkansas North Texas 12.0 6.3 9.5
Oregon San Jose St. 41.4 40.7 43.9
Buffalo Eastern Michigan 5.3 6.4 5.9
Nevada Oregon St. 6.5 9.3 8.2
Ole Miss Alabama -23.4 -21.5 -24.4
Tulsa Arkansas St. 7.6 4.6 6.5
South Alabama Texas St. 13.7 12.6 15.4
Georgia Middle Tennessee 45.6 39.6 46.0
South Carolina Marshall 20.5 16.5 18.7
Purdue Missouri -7.4 -7.5 -10.0
Northwestern Akron 25.6 21.8 25.4
Mississippi St. Louisiana 46.8 41.6 46.4
Texas A&M UL-Monroe 28.8 27.9 28.3
Louisville Western Kentucky 23.3 19.7 21.5
Texas USC -0.4 -0.2 -0.8
TCU Ohio St. -11.5 -9.4 -13.1
Utah Washington -12.5 -11.6 -14.1
UCLA Fresno St. -6.2 -4.8 -8.3
San Diego St. Arizona St. -7.1 -5.0 -5.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Utah St. Tennessee Tech 38.6
Kentucky Murray St. 36.1
Connecticut Rhode Island 10.2
Stanford UC-Davis 36.9
Navy Lehigh 29.8
Wyoming Wofford 17.5
Bowling Green Eastern Kentucky 13.5
Colorado New Hampshire 30.3
California Idaho St. 32.1
Liberty Norfolk St. 18.5
Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman 38.5
Coastal Carolina Campbell 17.7
Cincinnati Alabama A&M 36.0
Western Michigan Delaware St. 39.7
Iowa Northern Iowa 32.2
Washington St. Eastern Wash. 23.7
UNLV Prairie-View 21.2
Arizona Southern Utah 24.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.8 131.7 135.7 133.7
2 Georgia 131.9 127.6 133.3 130.9
3 Clemson 130.8 127.7 131.5 130.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 125.9 129.3 128.0
5 Washington 126.7 124.2 129.1 126.6
6 Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6
7 Mississippi St. 123.8 120.8 124.4 123.0
8 Michigan 123.1 122.0 124.0 123.0
9 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
10 Michigan St. 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.5
11 Penn St. 121.2 118.0 121.5 120.2
12 Wisconsin 121.2 118.3 120.9 120.1
13 Stanford 120.5 118.1 121.0 119.9
14 Notre Dame 120.7 116.9 119.1 118.9
15 Boston College 118.2 115.2 118.5 117.3
16 Miami 117.3 115.3 116.9 116.5
17 Boise St. 116.4 115.8 117.2 116.5
18 Virginia Tech 116.2 115.7 116.1 116.0
19 Missouri 115.2 113.7 116.8 115.2
20 Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8
21 Duke 115.2 112.7 114.7 114.2
22 T C U 114.2 113.6 113.2 113.6
23 Iowa 114.2 111.8 113.6 113.2
24 Oklahoma St. 113.8 111.8 113.7 113.1
25 L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1
26 N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.7 112.9 113.0
27 Central Florida 112.7 112.5 112.8 112.7
28 Texas A&M 113.0 111.7 113.2 112.6
29 Northwestern 112.9 110.8 112.9 112.2
30 S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.4 111.4
31 U S C 112.1 110.3 111.5 111.3
32 West Virginia 111.7 110.9 111.1 111.2
33 Utah 111.2 109.5 112.0 110.9
34 Georgia Tech 110.6 109.6 110.2 110.2
35 Florida 110.2 108.0 110.3 109.5
36 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
37 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
38 Florida St. 109.0 108.3 108.6 108.6
39 Kentucky 108.7 107.5 108.4 108.2
40 Washington St. 108.8 107.9 107.7 108.1
41 Arizona St. 108.8 107.3 108.1 108.1
42 Texas 108.7 107.1 107.7 107.8
43 Ole Miss 107.5 107.2 108.3 107.6
44 Fresno St. 107.9 106.3 107.4 107.2
45 Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1
46 Minnesota 106.6 105.8 106.3 106.2
47 Syracuse 106.5 104.9 105.3 105.6
48 Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.3 105.3
49 Maryland 105.9 104.4 105.1 105.1
50 Kansas St. 106.0 104.3 105.0 105.1
51 Purdue 104.8 103.1 103.7 103.9
52 Houston 103.1 104.3 103.8 103.7
53 Utah St. 102.5 104.0 104.1 103.5
54 Arkansas 104.9 102.0 103.2 103.4
55 Louisville 102.9 102.7 102.3 102.6
56 Texas Tech 103.7 101.8 101.9 102.5
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Vanderbilt 101.5 102.5 101.8 102.0
59 Baylor 102.4 100.2 101.9 101.5
60 Virginia 101.5 101.8 99.9 101.1
61 Pittsburgh 101.0 100.7 100.2 100.7
62 Arizona 101.0 99.3 100.9 100.4
63 N. Carolina 100.4 99.3 99.6 99.8
64 BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.4
66 South Florida 98.0 101.0 98.9 99.3
67 San Diego St. 98.7 99.3 99.9 99.3
68 Nebraska 100.1 98.4 97.5 98.6
69 Toledo 97.2 99.3 97.3 97.9
70 U C L A 98.8 98.5 96.2 97.8
71 Indiana 98.0 97.1 97.5 97.5
72 Wyoming 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.3
73 N. Texas 95.9 98.8 96.7 97.1
74 Tennessee 97.2 97.5 96.5 97.1
75 Army 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.5
76 Buffalo 95.3 97.6 96.5 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 96.7 96.1 96.3
79 Marshall 94.4 97.3 95.6 95.8
80 Tulane 95.6 95.7 95.2 95.5
81 Ohio U 94.6 96.0 95.9 95.5
82 Appalachian St. 94.2 95.7 95.5 95.1
83 Kansas 96.1 95.0 94.1 95.1
84 Rutgers 95.8 94.9 93.9 94.9
85 Louisiana Tech 93.4 95.9 94.6 94.6
86 Eastern Michigan 92.4 93.7 93.1 93.1
87 Air Force 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9
88 Illinois 93.3 92.9 92.1 92.8
89 Tulsa 93.0 91.6 93.6 92.7
90 Temple 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.6
91 Cincinnati 92.0 93.6 92.0 92.5
92 Nevada 91.3 91.4 91.3 91.3
93 Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9
94 Western Michigan 89.9 91.5 90.7 90.7
95 Troy 89.5 91.0 91.1 90.5
96 U N L V 89.5 91.1 90.0 90.2
97 Middle Tennessee 89.3 91.0 90.2 90.2
98 Miami (O) 89.1 91.1 90.0 90.1
99 SMU 90.7 89.7 89.2 89.9
100 Massachusetts 88.2 90.0 89.6 89.3
101 Arkansas St. 87.9 89.5 89.6 89.0
102 U A B 87.6 90.0 87.8 88.5
103 UL-Monroe 87.1 86.7 87.9 87.3
104 New Mexico 86.4 88.1 86.3 86.9
105 Oregon St. 87.8 85.2 86.1 86.4
106 Georgia Southern 85.3 86.7 85.6 85.9
107 East Carolina 85.7 84.9 84.8 85.1
108 Colo. State 84.6 85.9 84.7 85.1
109 Florida Int’l. 83.2 87.7 83.8 84.9
110 Central Michigan 83.5 86.3 83.7 84.5
111 Ball St. 83.2 85.9 82.9 84.0
112 Bowling Green 83.7 83.7 83.9 83.8
113 Southern Miss. 82.3 85.5 82.8 83.6
114 W. Kentucky 81.6 85.0 82.7 83.1
115 Old Dominion 81.0 85.2 81.0 82.4
116 South Alabama 81.3 83.4 82.3 82.3
117 Kent St. 81.6 82.9 81.0 81.8
118 U T S A 79.2 83.9 80.0 81.1
119 Louisiana 79.5 81.7 80.5 80.6
120 Liberty 81.0 79.3 81.2 80.5
121 Hawaii 79.9 82.2 78.4 80.2
122 Coastal Carolina 78.5 81.5 79.1 79.7
123 Georgia St. 77.9 80.7 78.9 79.2
124 Connecticut 78.5 78.7 77.2 78.1
125 N. Mexico St. 75.7 78.1 76.0 76.6
126 San Jose St. 76.1 76.9 74.3 75.8
127 Charlotte 74.5 76.8 74.6 75.3
128 Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.6 67.8 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 112.7 112.5 112.8 112.7 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.0 101.0 98.9 99.3 0-0 2-0
Temple 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.6 0-0 0-2
Cincinnati 92.0 93.6 92.0 92.5 0-0 2-0
East Carolina 85.7 84.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.5 78.7 77.2 78.1 0-1 0-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.3 105.3 0-1 1-1
Houston 103.1 104.3 103.8 103.7 0-0 2-0
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 1-1
Tulane 95.6 95.7 95.2 95.5 0-0 1-1
Tulsa 93.0 91.6 93.6 92.7 0-0 1-1
SMU 90.7 89.7 89.2 89.9 0-0 0-2
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.8 127.7 131.5 130.0 0-0 2-0
Boston College 118.2 115.2 118.5 117.3 0-0 2-0
N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.7 112.9 113.0 0-0 2-0
Florida St. 109.0 108.3 108.6 108.6 0-1 1-1
Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 106.5 104.9 105.3 105.6 0-0 2-0
Louisville 102.9 102.7 102.3 102.6 0-0 1-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.3 115.3 116.9 116.5 0-0 1-1
Virginia Tech 116.2 115.7 116.1 116.0 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.2 112.7 114.7 114.2 0-0 2-0
Georgia Tech 110.6 109.6 110.2 110.2 0-0 1-1
Virginia 101.5 101.8 99.9 101.1 0-0 1-1
Pittsburgh 101.0 100.7 100.2 100.7 0-0 1-1
N. Carolina 100.4 99.3 99.6 99.8 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.8 109.5 110.2 110.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 0-0 2-0
T C U 114.2 113.6 113.2 113.6 0-0 2-0
Oklahoma St. 113.8 111.8 113.7 113.1 0-0 2-0
West Virginia 111.7 110.9 111.1 111.2 0-0 2-0
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-0 0-1
Texas 108.7 107.1 107.7 107.8 0-0 1-1
Kansas St. 106.0 104.3 105.0 105.1 0-0 1-1
Texas Tech 103.7 101.8 101.9 102.5 0-0 1-1
Baylor 102.4 100.2 101.9 101.5 0-0 2-0
Kansas 96.1 95.0 94.1 95.1 0-0 1-1
Big 12 Averages 108.9 107.4 108.1 108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 125.9 129.3 128.0 1-0 2-0
Michigan 123.1 122.0 124.0 123.0 0-0 1-1
Michigan St. 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.5 0-0 1-1
Penn St. 121.2 118.0 121.5 120.2 0-0 2-0
Maryland 105.9 104.4 105.1 105.1 0-0 2-0
Indiana 98.0 97.1 97.5 97.5 0-0 2-0
Rutgers 95.8 94.9 93.9 94.9 0-1 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 121.2 118.3 120.9 120.1 0-0 2-0
Iowa 114.2 111.8 113.6 113.2 0-0 2-0
Northwestern 112.9 110.8 112.9 112.2 1-0 1-1
Minnesota 106.6 105.8 106.3 106.2 0-0 2-0
Purdue 104.8 103.1 103.7 103.9 0-1 0-2
Nebraska 100.1 98.4 97.5 98.6 0-0 0-1
Illinois 93.3 92.9 92.1 92.8 0-0 2-0
Big Ten Averages 110.6 108.8 110.0 109.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.4 0-0 1-1
Marshall 94.4 97.3 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.3 91.0 90.2 90.2 0-0 1-1
Florida Int’l. 83.2 87.7 83.8 84.9 1-0 1-1
W. Kentucky 81.6 85.0 82.7 83.1 0-0 0-2
Old Dominion 81.0 85.2 81.0 82.4 0-1 0-2
Charlotte 74.5 76.8 74.6 75.3 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 95.9 98.8 96.7 97.1 0-0 2-0
Louisiana Tech 93.4 95.9 94.6 94.6 0-0 2-0
U A B 87.6 90.0 87.8 88.5 0-0 1-1
Southern Miss. 82.3 85.5 82.8 83.6 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.2 83.9 80.0 81.1 0-0 0-2
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.5 71.6 67.8 69.3 0-0 0-2
CUSA Averages 84.3 87.3 84.8 85.4
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 120.7 116.9 119.1 118.9 x 2-0
BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4 x 1-1
Army 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.5 x 1-1
Massachusetts 88.2 90.0 89.6 89.3 x 1-2
Liberty 81.0 79.3 81.2 80.5 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 75.7 78.1 76.0 76.6 x 0-3
Ind. Averages 93.5 93.5 93.7 93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.3 97.6 96.5 96.5 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 94.6 96.0 95.9 95.5 0-0 1-0
Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9 0-0 1-0
Miami (O) 89.1 91.1 90.0 90.1 0-0 0-2
Bowling Green 83.7 83.7 83.9 83.8 0-0 0-2
Kent St. 81.6 82.9 81.0 81.8 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.2 99.3 97.3 97.9 0-0 1-0
Northern Illinois 96.1 96.7 96.1 96.3 0-0 0-2
Eastern Michigan 92.4 93.7 93.1 93.1 0-0 2-0
Western Michigan 89.9 91.5 90.7 90.7 0-0 0-2
Central Michigan 83.5 86.3 83.7 84.5 0-0 0-2
Ball St. 83.2 85.9 82.9 84.0 0-0 1-1
MAC Averages 89.8 91.4 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 116.4 115.8 117.2 116.5 0-0 2-0
Utah St. 102.5 104.0 104.1 103.5 0-0 1-1
Wyoming 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.3 0-0 1-2
Air Force 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.4 88.1 86.3 86.9 0-0 1-1
Colo. State 84.6 85.9 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 107.9 106.3 107.4 107.2 0-0 1-1
San Diego St. 98.7 99.3 99.9 99.3 0-0 1-1
Nevada 91.3 91.4 91.3 91.3 0-0 1-1
U N L V 89.5 91.1 90.0 90.2 0-0 1-1
Hawaii 79.9 82.2 78.4 80.2 1-0 3-0
San Jose St. 76.1 76.9 74.3 75.8 0-0 0-2
MWC Averages 93.6 94.3 93.6 93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.7 124.2 129.1 126.6 0-0 1-1
Stanford 120.5 118.1 121.0 119.9 1-0 2-0
Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8 0-0 2-0
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 2-0
Washington St. 108.8 107.9 107.7 108.1 0-0 2-0
Oregon St. 87.8 85.2 86.1 86.4 0-0 1-1
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.1 110.3 111.5 111.3 0-1 1-1
Utah 111.2 109.5 112.0 110.9 0-0 2-0
Arizona St. 108.8 107.3 108.1 108.1 0-0 2-0
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 2-0
Arizona 101.0 99.3 100.9 100.4 0-0 0-2
U C L A 98.8 98.5 96.2 97.8 0-0 0-2
Pac-12 Averages 108.4 107.0 108.3 107.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 127.6 133.3 130.9 1-0 2-0
Missouri 115.2 113.7 116.8 115.2 0-0 2-0
S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.4 111.4 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.2 108.0 110.3 109.5 0-1 1-1
Kentucky 108.7 107.5 108.4 108.2 1-0 2-0
Vanderbilt 101.5 102.5 101.8 102.0 0-0 2-0
Tennessee 97.2 97.5 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 133.8 131.7 135.7 133.7 0-0 2-0
Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6 0-0 2-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 120.8 124.4 123.0 0-0 2-0
L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1 0-0 2-0
Texas A&M 113.0 111.7 113.2 112.6 0-0 1-1
Ole Miss 107.5 107.2 108.3 107.6 0-0 2-0
Arkansas 104.9 102.0 103.2 103.4 0-0 1-1
SEC Averages 114.0 112.5 114.5 113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.2 95.7 95.5 95.1 0-0 1-1
Troy 89.5 91.0 91.1 90.5 0-0 1-1
Georgia Southern 85.3 86.7 85.6 85.9 0-0 2-0
Coastal Carolina 78.5 81.5 79.1 79.7 0-0 1-1
Georgia St. 77.9 80.7 78.9 79.2 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.9 89.5 89.6 89.0 0-0 1-1
UL-Monroe 87.1 86.7 87.9 87.3 0-0 2-0
South Alabama 81.3 83.4 82.3 82.3 0-0 0-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.7 80.5 80.6 0-0 1-0
Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5 0-0 1-1
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.1 84.0 84.1

 

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.0 112.5 114.5 113.7
2 ACC 110.8 109.5 110.2 110.2
3 BTEN 110.6 108.8 110.0 109.8
4 B12 108.9 107.4 108.1 108.1
5 P-12 108.4 107.0 108.3 107.9
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
7 MWC 93.6 94.3 93.6 93.8
8 IND 93.5 93.5 93.7 93.5
9 MAC 89.8 91.4 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 84.3 87.3 84.8 85.4
11 SUN 83.2 85.1 84.0 84.1

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Toledo Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Tulsa Western Michigan
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan UNLV
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Virginia]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [California]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Louisiana
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Int’l. Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Army] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Georgia Tech [UAB]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC [Utah] Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC North Carolina St. Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Washington
Belk ACC SEC Boston College South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Virginia Tech
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Syracuse
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC [Georgia Southern] Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan USC
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Boise St. TCU
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Stanford
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Auburn
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Ohio St.
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
Championship  Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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August 17, 2018

2018 Big Ten Conference Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.
Our Power 5 Conference preseason ratings and won-loss predictions were figured before knowing the outcome of recent suspensions to Coaches Urban Meyer and D.J. Durkin at Ohio State and Maryland. Because our ratings set 100.0 as average, and the mean of all 130 teams must be 100.0, taking points away from Ohio State and Maryland require redistributing points to the other 128 teams. Expect these ratings to change prior to August 25.

Even before Ohio State had to put Meyer on paid leave, our summer PiRate Ratings had another team rated a little bit ahead of the Buckeyes. Michigan State won 10 games last year with wins over Michigan and Penn State. The Spartans were not as bad as they looked in the blowout loss in Columbus, and with practically the entire team returning plus the additions of some excellent talent that redshirted or saw minimal action, the Spartans begin the season ranked slightly higher than OSU.
Coach Mark Dantonio’s offense was not up to par last year, as Sparty averaged just 25 points and less than 350 yards per game. Things will be different this year, as returns 10 starters and a majority of the 2nd 11. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is not Khalil Tate, but the junior signal caller is primed to improve greatly on his passing numbers and equal or top his running numbers. Lewerke is known for breaking long runs in an unconventional manner. While he can break free on zone read plays, he has been known to make a simple quarterback sneak a long-gainer, and he can scramble as well as any contemporary.
Running back L.J. Scott can do a lot of damage between the tackles and then exploding outside once he gets through the line. He is powerful and has speed, and he excels at every part of the game, as a power runner with quick bursts to stretch the play wide; as a pass receiver (Ohio State got burned by a screen pass play to him); and as an incredible pass-protecting blocker).
The trio of Felton Davis, Cody White, and Darrell Stewart won’t confuse fans for the receivers at Oklahoma, but these guys are more than capable of making a defense that is expecting run pay dearly. Davis gives Lewerke the jump ball receiver in the end zone with his size and leaping ability.
An experience line with talent throughout should allow MSU to increase its offensive production to more than 30 points and 400 yards per game this year. Combine that with a highly-rated defense, and the Spartans can contend for a Playoff bid.
The strength of the defense is in the secondary, where free safety David Dowell intercepted 5 passes, knocked away 4 more, and recovered 2 fumbles. Cornerback Josiah Scott is a potential All Big Ten player as well.

Michigan State is solid at linebacker with Joe Bachie and Andrew Dowell returning, the team’s top two 2017 tacklers. Bachie intercepted three passes. If the Spartans are to reach the pinnacle, their pass rush will have to make a jump forward. End Kenny Willekes is capable of dumping the quarterback two or three times a game, but somebody else will need to step forward to prevent him from being double-teamed.

Michigan State might win an extra game with its special teams. Kicker Matt Coghlin was a perfect 38-38 on PATs and 15 of 19 on field goals. Punter Jake Hartbarger averaged 42 yards per punt with just 12 of his 69 punts returned for a measley 2.3 yards per return.

Ohio State has had to replace a head coach just prior to the start of a season in the recent past. In 2011, coming off a 12-1 season, Jim Tressel was dismissed, with Luke Fickell taking over as the interim. Ohio State fell to 6-7 and 3-5 in the Big Ten with the best talent in the conference not jelling. Urban Meyer became coach the next season and ran the table.

No matter who wears the headsets on the sideline on September 1st when the Buckeyes welcome a rebuilding Oregon State team to the Giant Horseshoe, Ohio State will look like Ohio State. The 2011 team commenced its season with a 42-0 win over Akron. It will be September 15, before the coaching issue might matter, when Ohio State plays TCU at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Ohio State rarely must rebuild when they lose highly-talented players every year, and this year is no different. Quarterback J.T. Barrett passed for 35 touchdowns and ran for a dozen more in his final year in Columbus. Normally, replacing a star talent like Barrett would lead to a major drop in offensive production, but not at this football factory. Ohio State’s probable third string quarterback until the number two guy transferred was a former high school phenom who out-dueled Josh Rosen, never lost a game in his high school career, and has been compared to Doug Flutie. Tate Martell will have to wait his turn, while Dwayne Haskins runs the offense. Haskins has the better arm and can force defenses to keep an extra man in the passing zones, while Martell is the scrambler type, the type that wouldn’t lose a game of tag, but with the need to work on his passing mechanics a little more.
The Buckeyes are loaded at running back with the return of J. K. Dobbins (1,403 yards 7.2 avg) and Mike Weber (626 yards 6.2 avg 10 TDs). Weber is a little more powerful, but Dobbins is the better pass-catching threat.

As good as the running back unit is, the receiver unit is better, again not as good as Oklahoma, but as good as any other Big Ten foe. Parris Campbell is the current Percy Harvin for this offense. The speedy hybrid receiver is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, be it on the speed sweep or via the pass (or as a kick returner). When you can catch a pass at the line of scrimmage and take it all the way, defenses must tell their safeties to retreat, and that opens the middle for bigger receivers as well as gives running backs more room to break free.

The Buckeye offensive line is the best in the East Division and second best in the league. Their version of Michael Jordan is a tall and strong guard who opens holes inside and stops enemy pass rushers. Tackle Isaiah Prince makes the left side of the Ohio State line mighty tough. The line should allow the Buckeyes to top 40 points and 500 yards again this year, unless there is a mini-train wreck with Meyer being dismissed.

Ohio State begins the season just behind Michigan State because their defense lost a lot of talented players, including the top three tacklers, two of 2017’s top pass rushing trio, and players responsible for 2/3 of the interceptions. One position that will be strong is at end, where Nick Bosa returns following a year where he finished third in the league with 16 tackles for loss and tied for first with 9 sacks. Robert Landers assumes the vacant end position.

Tuf Borland anchors the second line of defense, but this is one area of concern in 2018. Ohio State is thin at linebacker, and it wouldn’t surprise us if they eventually transition to more of a 4-2-5 team if they can uncover enough quality in their backfield. Ohio State has some re-tooling to do in the back line of defense, where cornerback Damon Arnette and safety Jordan Fuller need some help.

If Meyer is not able to coach this team, Ohio State will be at least a touchdown to 10 points weaker in 2018. Still, the Buckeyes would be a contender for the East Division crown, but not the top or even second choice to do so.

This is a pivotal year for Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. The former NFC Champion coach with the 49ers has not worked the same magic at his alma mater that he was able to do at Stanford. This year gives him his best chance, and if the Wolverines don’t look as powerful as they did during the Bo Schembechler days, the fans in Ann Arbor may demand change.
The Maize and Blue have the talent to compete and even contend for a playoff bid this year, and if Harbaugh can get his new quarterback to play like he did against Auburn and Texas A&M while leading the Ole Miss offense, the pieces are in place for the Champions of the West to make a run at the championship of the Big Ten East.
Shea Patterson took his redshirt off late in the 2016 season at Ole Miss and looked like the next Archie Manning with his exceptional running ability and passing arm. Seven games into his sophomore season, Patterson’s season ended with a knee injury against LSU. Still, in just 6 1/2 games with the Rebels, his 2,259 passing yards and 17 touchdowns topped the entire Michigan offense in 13 games by more than 300 yards!

Michigan still has issues in the offensive line, where three starters return but only guard Ben Bredeson being all-conference quality. Patterson may be on the run too many times this year if the blocking cannot improve, and the ground game may stall like it did last year against teams like Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and South Carolina, the five teams that beat them.

If the line blocks just a tad bit better than average, the Michigan ground game will succeed. Patterson can take some of the defensive keying off Karan Higdon and Chris Evans, which should help the two running backs top their combined rushing for 1,679 yards and 17 touchdowns. Give Higdon a little room, and he can explode for 7-10 yards quickly. Evans is better equipped to earn the tough yards when they are needed.
Michigan has a young but somewhat experienced group of receivers. Last year’s starters did not shine, and this year’s replacements could easily make UM fans forget the 2017 starters. The best receivers may be tight ends Sean McKeon and Zach Gentry, and Michigan could succeed with the double tight end alignment this year. Patterson went to his tight ends in Oxford last year for some nice gains and conversions.

Make no mistake about it; Michigan’s bread and butter is their defense, and as good as the Wolverines were at stopping enemy offenses last year, 2018 could be very special. UM finished tops in the nation in passing yards allowed and third in total yards. Their secondary is even better this year, and we believe the Wolverines can lower last year’s points allowed per game from 18.8 to 15, especially if the offense sustains more drives.
In 19 years out of 20, a secondary this talented would be the tops in the land. This is that 20th year, when Washington has one of the best secondaries of all time. Michigan ranks just behind with the top two cornerbacks in the league. Lavert Hill and David Long may not put up the jazziest of numbers, but quarterbacks tend to throw the ball elsewhere. Think of it like issuing an intentional walk to a 50-homer guy in baseball.

The middle trio of this defense features two All Big Ten players in Khaleke Hudson and Devin Bush. Both are complete players that can stop the run, dump the quarterback, and defend against the pass. Bush might contend for the Butkus Award this year.

The defensive line is the weakest unit on this team, but it is still a big asset that is almost as strong as their rivals’ to the South’s d-line. End Rashan Gary should make first team all-conference if he stays healthy. Opposite side end Chase Vinovich could have been playing for pay this year, but he chose to return to Ann Arbor, and with another great year, his draft stock should go up.

Michigan begins the season playing what could be a playoff qualifier. The Wolverines travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in the top game of the opening week of football. The winner of that game should carry the momentum forward to a 7-0 start through mid-October. Michigan has some tough games in the second half, having to face Sparty in East Lansing and Ohio State at the Giant Horseshoe plus host Wisconsin and Penn State. This team has the talent to go 11-1 or 10-2, but with just a little less production, UM could find itself back at 5-4 in the league, which would be dangerous for Harbaugh’s chances to return in 2019.

Penn State coach James Franklin worked his magic at Vanderbilt, doing the unthinkable by winning nine games in back-to-back seasons, both years finishing in the top 25, and by beating Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in the same season. So, it should come as no surprise that he would do wonders in Happy Valley, as the Nittany Lions just enjoyed their first back-to-back 11-win seasons since Joe Paterno was still walking the sidelines.

Coming off a Big Ten championship in 2016, the Nittany Lions may have been a little better last year, even though they came up a game short in the East Division standings. The two losses were by a combined four points, so the Nittany Lions were oh so close from running the table and making it to the Playoffs.

We expect Penn State to take a slight backward turn this year, because their defense is almost entirely new this year. Only one two starters return on this side of the ball, and none of them played in the secondary last year. Amani Oruwariye actually made the All Big Ten Second team last year as a key reserve, so the defensive backfield is not in as bad a shape as it appears to be.

Linebacker U must have talent in the middle of their defense, and this year is no different. Koa Farmer, a converted safety and Cameron Brown give the defense a pair of talented stoppers.

The front four has talent as well, led by end Shareef Miller. In a league with multiple star defensive ends, Miller takes a back seat to nobody. He led Penn State with 11 1/2 tackles for loss and 5 1/2 sacks.

The Penn State defense will not be as stingy as last year, when they finished 6th nationally in scoring defense, but the decline will not be severe. Expect Penn State to give up about 21 to 23 points per game this year.

The offense returns its star quarterback, but it loses its heart, as superstar running back Saquon Barkley has taken his 1,271 rushing yards, 632 receiving yards, the nation’s best kick returning, and his 23 total touchdowns to the New York Giants. Miles Sanders might rush for 1,000 yards replacing Barkley, but he won’t be the all-purpose player that comes around to a school about as often as Halley’s Comet.

Trace McSorley needs to have an incredible finish to his career to move up the ranks in a very heavily talented field of draft-eligible quarterbacks. He’d probably be an undrafted free agent if this were next May. He’s a tad undersized and lacks the arm strength to contend with players like Patterson at Michigan, but for Penn State’s offense, he is more than adequate, bordering on stardom.

McSorley will need wideout Juwan Johnson to have a breakout year, as he is the only one of three 50+ catch receivers left on the roster. Johnson provides a big target and has a nice combination of speed and agility to go with excellent hands. If DeAndre Thompkins can be the 1A receiver and play like he did as a secondary talent last year, then the Penn State passing game should be in good shape.

The best news on this side of the ball is that the offensive line might be the most improved of any in the league. Five players with significant starting experience plus three others that will earn extensive playing time should give McSorley the time he needs to locate open receivers and open some holes for the running game.

Maryland is a team with a lot of dissension at the present time. Coach Durkin has the support of his players, and if he is fired, we expect the this program to be affected more than Ohio State’s losing Meyer would be. This team was on the cusp of contending for bowl eligibility, but it would not surprise us if the Terrapins fell to the bottom of the division and even go 0-9 if the players don’t rally around interim head coach Matt Canada, who just arrived from LSU.

The Terp offense will move on the ground more than through the air this year after being exactly equal in 2017 with 162 yards rushing and 162 yards passing per game. The running back tandem of Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison should team up for about 1,800 yards with the improved blocking expected from an experience offensive line that welcomes back the top five players from last year.

Maryland leads the nation in only one quarterback statistic, and unfortunately, that is number of quarterbacks used. The recent history has been quite negative as to the incredible number of QBs in need of disability insurance. Last year was more of the same in College Park, as the first two were done for the year in Mid-September. To complicate matters further, Maryland will switch from a shotgun alignment to an under-center alignment this year. Redshirt Freshman Kasim Hill and sophomore Tyrell Pigrome have very limited experience, but one of the two will start against Texas on September 1.

Maryland basically threw the ball to two players last year, and one returns in 2018. Taivon Jacobs turned 47 catches into 553 yards and 5 TDs last year. Jacobs will not be able to make up for the receptions and yards lost when D. J. Moore became a first round pick in the NFL Draft.

Maryland needs to re-tool a little on the defensive side, but there are some athletes here that can shine. The Terps use the 3-3-5 defense, and the secondary will be the strongest unit on the team. Safety Darnell Savage intercepted three passes last year and returned one for a touchdown. He led UM with 8 passed defended. Nickel back Antoine Brooks finished second on the team with 77 tackles last year, and he proved to be an excellent run defender, finishing with a team-leading 9 1/2 tackles for loss.

Outside linebacker Isaiah Davis is the lone returning starter at linebacker. The Terps need Buck linebacker Jesse Aniebonam to emerge as a force coming back from injury after starring there in 2016, when he made 9 QB sacks.

With Durkin as coach, we were prepared to give Maryland a 50-50 shot at bowl eligibility this year and a 90% chance of getting five wins. If Durkin is dismissed, this team could fall to 2-10, and there will be a long coaching search trying to find somebody to right the ship.

Rutgers found a way to win four games last year with an offense that averaged just 18 points and 263 yards per game. The Scarlet Knights scored just 71 points in their eight losses. Coach Chris Ash is a defensive specialist, having been the defensive coordinator at Ohio State and Arkansas before coming to RU. Quietly, he doubled the win total between his first and second year, and he returns more experience this year than either of his first two seasons in New Brunswick.

The offense should experience some improvement this year, but don’t expect too much. Quarterback Giovanni Rescigno shared the job last year with less than stellar results, so there is only one way to go from 47% completions and 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Tight end Jerome Washington returns after leading RU with just 28 receptions and 282 yards. Former Boston College running back Jonathan Hillman and talented sophomore Raheem Blackshear will get the brunt of the rushing attempts. Blackshear has the ability to break a long gain via the run or the pass, but his diminutive size will limit the amount of touches he can get and stay healthy. The offensive line is anything but an asset, as the Scarlet Knights frequently allowed pass rushers to get into the backfield quickly.

The RU defense will most likely carry the team on its shoulders again this season. This unit limited Purdue to 12 points, but it is not one of the league’s premier stop troops. Eight starters return from 2017, so Rutgers’ numbers on this side of the ball could improve a little after finishing 11th against the run and 10th against the pass.

Linebackers Deonte Roberts and Trevor Morris finished one-two in tackles last year, and they could both top 100 tackles this year. There are multiple players with experience returning to the secondary, but none appear to be ready to challenge for all conference honors. The pass rush was close to nonexistent last year, and the top pass rusher used up his eligibility.

Indiana was on the verge of turning the program around into an annual bowl-contender until they decided it was time for Kevin Wilson to go. Wilson ended up at Ohio State as an assistant, while Tom Allen took over in Bloomington. After a 5-7 finish last year, it could be difficult to contend fro a 6-win season and bowl bid this season.

The defense gave Indiana a chance to compete in several games last year, and this year, a major rebuilding task will send the defensive averages up by about 7-10 points per game. The offense will not be that much better if any better at all, so the Hoosiers may have to fight to stay out of the basement if Maryland doesn’t implode.

The old saying goes that if you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. What does it say when you have three? Allen was not all that pleased with the depth chart here, and late in Spring, he signed former Arizona Wildcat starter Brandon Dawkins to join the competition between Sophomore Peyton Ramsey and true freshman Michael Penix. Dawkins performed admirably under center in Tucson, but he was not going to see a lot of time with Khalil Tate on the roster. He is an excellent dual-threat player and should eventually become the starter.

The Hoosiers have a decent but not flashy running back duo that should help IU top the 130 rushing yards per game from last season. Morgan Ellison and Cole Gest should both get 7-12 attempts per game.

Two of the three starters returning on defense play in the secondary. Cornerback Andre Brown is not one of the top 10 at his position in the Big Ten. Jonathan Crawford is a decent but not exceptional strong safety. The Hoosiers have numerous inexperienced players with promising talent, but this secondary is vulnerable.

At least the secondary has some experience. The front seven is void of experienced starters. There are a couple of players in the trenches that look like Big Ten athletes. Tackle Jacob Robinson should make some big plays from the inside, but IU is weak everywhere else up front.

They were oh so close last year, but came up a bit short. Wisconsin ran the table in the regular season beating Northwestern by two games, while no other team in the West Division finished above .500 in league play. The Badgers are still the favorite to repeat as division champions, but they won’t be as good this year as they were in 2017. The Badger offense will need to be the best defense this year, because UW lost a considerable amount of talent on the other side of the ball from the league’s top defense.

The Badgers are noted for having excellent offensive linemen, tight ends, and powerful running backs. Expect more of the same in 2018, as the nation’s best offensive line is loaded with talent and experience. There is such incredible depth here that some of the backups could start for other Top 25 teams! Three of the players could make All-American! Tackle Michael Deiter could be the first tackle picked in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he is the second best on the team, and he is actually better utilized at guard. Dave Edwards is a beast. He is strong, quick, and agile, having been an option quarterback in high school.

Wisconsin lost a fine tight end in Troy Fumagalli (46 catches 547 yards), but when they still have two fine players nominated to the John Mackey Award Watch List. Zander Neuville and Kyle Penniston can block like guards but can sneak into the secondary and turn a short pass into a nice gain.

Fumagalli was the leading pass receiver, but the three two wideout receivers are back this year. Quintez Cephus, A.J. Taylor, and Danny Davis combined for just 87 pass receptions, but the trio averaged 16 yards per reception with 16 touchdowns.

Alex Hornibrook returns as the starting quarterback, and if he moves forward as much this season as he did last season, he could challenge McSorley and Lewerke for first team all-conference honors. His top job though will be handing the ball off to Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 1,977 yards as a freshman.

If the Badgers stumble this year, it will be because their defense allows opponents to score points faster than the offense can respond. After giving up less than 14 points per game, less than 100 rushing yards, and just 262 total yards per game. The Badgers are still strong at linebacker with last year’s top two tacklers returning. T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connelly combined for 169 tackles with 22 for lost yardage; they picked up 5 passes, with Edwards taking one to the house.

Nose Tackle Olive Sagapolu can stop the two A-gaps without doing much of anything. At 346 pounds, he is tough to move out of the way and can force running attacks to direct plays to the next gap over. The Badgers are totally inexperienced at the end positions, and this will be a concern at the start of the season.

In the defensive backfield, safety D’Cota Dixon is the lone returning starter, and while he is excellent against the run, he is not a pass defense star.

Wisconsin will have time to get their new defensive players some playing time against three beatable opponents. The September 22nd game at Iowa could go a long way in determining the West Division champion.

Northwestern returns enough talent on both sides of the ball to give Wisconsin and Iowa fierce competition for the West Division flag. The University spent $260 million building the finest indoor facility in the nation, right on Lake Michigan, and the Wildcats are going to ramp up recruiting and possibly become the football equivalent of Duke Basketball, where the finest combination of athletic and academic successes end up in Evanston. This is down the road; for now, Coach Pat Fitzgerald tries to improve on a 10-3 season that included a narrow win over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.

Clayton Thorson may not be an all-conference selection, but the senior quarterback has a good shot to hear his name announced in the 2019 NFL Draft. Thorson’s 2017 season was a bit off the 2016 season, but with his size and strength, NFL teams will have an interest in him. He has a a pair of experienced wide receivers returning, and Ben Skowronek and Flynn Nagel were the leading receivers last year.

Thorson relied on a lot of passes to his backs, and he will miss Justin Jackson’s 44 receptions and 1,311 rushing yards. Jeremy Larkin actually had better averages than Jackson in limited touches, as he has breakaway speed when he gets a little open space. The offensive line should be strong on the right side, but the left side could pose problems against some tough defensive stars.

Defensively, the Wildcats are stronger in the front seven and lacking in experience in their back line. Linebackers Paddy Fisher and Nate Hall combined to make 192 tackles with 26 for loss. Hall blitzed and sacked the QB five times. Up front, Samdup Miller and Joe Gaziano teamed for 14 1/2 sacks and 21 1/2 total tackles for loss. The secondary has just one returning starter. Montre Hartage intercepted a couple of passes, but this unit is lacking in stars.
Usually, Big Ten teams begin the season with a winnable game against a Group of 5 opponent. This year, Northwestern begins the season on the road in a pivotal conference game against Purdue. Then, in November, when Big Ten teams rarely play out of conference, the Wildcats host Notre Dame. The schedule is not favorable for a run at a division flag.

On the other hand, Iowa has a very favorable schedule to make a run at the division flag, even if like Wisconsin, they have a lot of replacing to do on the defensive side. Coach Kirk Ferentz enters his 20th season in Iowa City, and as a gift, the Hawkeyes are the only team in the Big Ten that does not play Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State.

On the offensive side, they Hawkeyes are led by their best player, quarterback Nate Stanley. Stanley came from out of almost nowhere to take over at QB last year and surprised the nation with 26 touchdown passes and 2.432 passing yards. Included in those stats were 5 TD pass games against Iowa State and Ohio State.

Like many teams in this league, Iowa uses a lot of two tight end sets, and the Hawkeyes return both starters this year. Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson teamed up to grab 54 passes good for 814 yards and 14 touchdowns. They will team up with top wideout Nick Easley to make Iowa’s passing game strong. The running game may be a work in progress with last year’s two top backs no longer around. Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin saw limited action in 2017 and looked capable of becoming contributors this year, but the Iowa running game may be down a little this year.

The defensive liability that will hurt the Hawkeyes this year is the middle of the defense. All of last year’s top linebackers are gone, and there isn’t much experience returning. Iowa will be vulnerable early against the short passing game and play-action passes until the new linebackers get enough reps to understand how to play at full speed. This is not the case up front, where the defensive line should be rather strong this year. Ends Anthony Nelson and Parker Hesse should get to the enemy quarterback a fair amount of times and stop running backs on stretch plays often enough to encourage offenses to try something else.

The secondary may have four new starters this year, even though there is returning starting experience. The Hawkeyes will miss star defensive back Joshua Jackson and his eight interceptions.

Who saw this coming last year? Purdue was picked to maybe contend for fifth place in the division and hopefully win four or five games. Under new coach Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers looked more like the Drew Brees team that played at Ross-Ade Stadium 20 years ago than recent Purdue squads. Purdue Missouri, Minnesota, and Iowa in the regular season, and then secured a winning season by topping Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl.
It is more of the same for the Boilermakers offensively this year, but like most of the division, they must rebuild on the other side of the ball. The offense improved only marginally in scoring average in Brohm’s first season in West Lafayette, but the defense shaved 18 points off the scoring average allowed.

A tight race for the starting quarterback job is still too close to call. Last year, Elijah Sindelar got a majority of the snaps, but he did so only because David Blough was out for the year with an injury. Sindelar played the last few weeks on a torn ACL, but both should be ready to begin the year. It could easily continue to be undecided into the season, as both could play.

The Boilermakers need true freshman Rondale Moore to live up to his credentials as soon as possible, because there isn’t a go-to guy on the roster. Most of the returning receivers are capable second and third options, but only if there is a play-making first option.

The running game should be slightly improved, even though last year’s starter has graduated. Markell Jones and Tario Fuller will carry the ball behind an experienced line featuring Rimington Award contender Kirk Barron at center.

Purdue’s run defense was one of the better groups in the nation last year, but most of the stars that made it so powerful won’t be on the sidelines this year. One of those who will be back is middle linebacker Markus Bailey, who finished second on the team in tackles and first in sacks. He played on the strongside last year, but he will return to the middle in 2018.

The front four has questions, especially at end, while there are concerns at the cornerback spots as well. Safeties Jacob Thieneman and Navon Mosley return as starters, but they were more of supporting role players than stars.

Purdue has two strong non-conference opponents on their schedule in Missouri and Boston College, and most of the winnable conference games are on the road this year. If Brohm can take the Boilermakers back to a bowl this year, it may be an even better coaching job than last year. It also may get him a lot of offers to coach at more successful programs.

Minnesota used to be as big a power in college football as Ohio State is today. That was nearly 60 years ago, but this school still has the resources to return to greatness. Second year coach P. J. Fleck knows how to recruit and coach, as he made Western Michigan a New Year’s Bowl participant. Fleck is a motivational coach in the mold of James Franklin, but don’t underestimate his ability to get the most out of the talent on hand. The Golden Gophers fell one victory short of qualifying for a bowl last year, but with a majority of his starters returning on both sides of the ball, Fleck should play game number 13 in December.

Minnesota couldn’t move the ball or score points well enough to find that elusive sixth win. Narrow losses to Maryland, Michigan State, and Iowa could have been wins with just a little more offense. Quarterback play was a major liability in 2017, so the fact that Minnesota will have a new signal caller in 2018 is not a bad thing. It was thought that either redshirt freshman Tanner Morhan or juco transfer Vic Viramontes will be under center when the Gophers take on New Mexico State in week one. However, in recent days it appears that true freshman walk-on Zack Annexstad might be the starter.

Annexstad is not your typical walk-on. He turned down scholarship offers at multiple FBS schools to pay to attend his father’s alma mater. He has the stronger arm and has the skills to lead this team to at least seven more points per game than last year.
UM is set at running back, where Rodney Smith narrowly missed topping 1,000 yards and could easily match or top his fine sophomore campaign, where he rushed for 1,158 yards. It’s at receiver where the Gophers are not yet quite up to standards of the top teams in the league. Tyler Johnson is a fine receiver, capable of turning a short pass into a long gain, but he cannot do it all himself. Freshmen and untested sophomores will man the other positions. The Gophers plan to create shade for the fans in the stadium, and they signed two of the largest offensive linemen in the game. Tackle Daniel Faalele tips the scale at 400 pounds on a 6 foot 9 inch frame. Curtis Dunlap is only 6-5 and 370. Both should add depth to an improving offensive line this year.

Unlike most of their division brethren, Minnesota has experience returning throughout the defensive side of the field. In fact, they have a star in each unit. End Carter Coughlin led the team with 6 1/2 sacks. Linebacker Thomas Barber led the team and finished third in the league with 115 tackles, including 10 1/2 for loss. Safety Antoine Winfield looked like an all-conference player when he was healthy in the four games he played.

Minnesota gave up 22.8 points per game and 347 yards per game, which in the Big 12 would have been outstanding. It’s just average in the Big Ten, and the Gophers have a chance to improve those numbers to 20 points and 330 yards given up. A non-conference schedule that should give them three wins means, they only have to go 3-6 to get back to a bowl. That’s a strong possibility.

There is a generation of college football fans that do not know that Nebraska was once what Alabama is today. The Cornhuskers last won the national championship 21 years ago and last looked like the best team ever 23 years ago. The Cornhuskers are a far cry from even respectability, but new coach Scott Frost should stir up excitement at his alma mater. Too bad he doesn’t have eligibility left, because Nebraska could use him under center. Two freshmen are competing for the starting quarterback job, Tristan Gebbia and Adrian Martinez. For the time being, both may play in the early games in hopes that one will emerge as the clear choice.

Whoever is in at quarterback, he will have a fine pair of receivers to aim his throws to. Stanley Morgan, Jr. and J.D. Spielman teamed for 116 receptions and 1,1816 yards. Morgan’s father was a star with the New England Patriots and likely headed to the NFL in another year.
In past years, it was not unusual for Nebraska to rush for 400 to 500 yards with 1st team All-American backs. Things have changed in Lincoln, as the Cornhuskers finished 13th in the league in rushing with just 107.5 yards per game last year. No back topped 500 yards rushing for the season, and leading returnee Tre Bryant fell short of 300 yards. A combination of having Frost’s hurry up spread offense and a better blocking wall should help Nebraska increase their rushing average by 30-50 yards per game this year.
The defense formerly and famously known as the Blackshirts in the dynasty years of this program looked more like the black and blue in recent years. Nebraska gave up 36.4 points and 436.2 yards per game last year, including 42 points to Oregon 56 to Ohio State, and a final three swoon that saw Minnesota, Penn State, and Iowa all top 50 points. Expect these numbers to shrink in 2018. We would not be shocked if NU shaved 10 or more points and 50 or more yards off those poor averages.

The front seven will lead the way in 2018. Nebraska switches to a 3-4 after being an even-front team last year. The move to defensive end from outside linebacker should help Ben Stille team up with Carlos Davis and Freedom Akinmoladun top the 7 sacks the trio produced last year. Linebacker Dedrick Young is the leading returning tackle, and he’ll team with juco transfer Will Honas to give the Cornhuskers a better second line of defense. Expect more aggressive play in the secondary this year, as defensive coordinator Erik Chinander prefers a defense that concentrates on forcing turnovers.
There is a path to six wins for Frost in his first year at Memorial Stadium, but it isn’t going to be easy. After an opening game at home with Akron, the next three games are a bit tricky.
Illinois finished last in offense and 12th in defense in the Big Ten last year, and Coach Lovie Smith realized that desperate measures were needed. After Arizona fired Rich Rodriguez, Smith hired his offensive coordinator, Rod Smith to try to jump start the Illini offense. Quarterback Cam Thomas flashed just enough talent in a relief appearance against Purdue last year to give Illinois fans hope that he can move the team with consistency. The cupboard isn’t bare in the receiving corps, as Mike Dudek, Ricky Smalling, and tight end Louis Dorsey all saw extended playing time in 2017 and combined to catch 77 passes. Mike Epstein led the team with 346 rushing yards, even though he wasn’t the starter. He should top 500 this year. The entire offensive line returns, so expect Illinois to do much better than the paltry 15.4 points and 280 yards per game this year.

Defensively, Illinois gave up 31.5 points and 418 yards per game last year and won only two games, against Ball State and Western Kentucky. In Big Ten play, they went 0-9 and only really challenged in one game. There really is no reason to believe those numbers will improve this year. The defensive line and secondary is the weakest in the Big Ten, and the linebacker trio is only marginally better.

This could be the end of the line for Smith as coach of the Illini. With a 5-19 record in two years, another double-digit loss season might not be acceptable.

Here is how the Big Ten Conference Media voted in the preseason poll, which was taken before Meyer and Durkin were put on leave.

Big Ten
East 1st Place Points
1. Ohio St. 23.5 191.5
2. Michigan St. 2 142
3. Penn St. 1 141.5
4. Michigan 1.5 140.5
5. Maryland 0 75.5
6. Indiana 0 60
7. Rutgers 0 33
West 1st Place Points
1. Wisconsin 28 196
2. Iowa 0 155
3. Northwestern 0 138
4. Nebraska 0 104
5. Purdue 0 98.5
6. Minnesota 0 64.5
7. Illinois 0 28

The PiRate Ratings differ somewhat, and as we have mentioned, we expect considerable movement in these ratings, especially in the East Division if Meyer and/or Durkin are dismissed. LATE NOTE: It was announced Friday afternoon that the Meyer investigation would conclude on Sunday.

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan St. 0-0 0-0 127.7 125.1 128.1 127.0
Ohio St. 0-0 0-0 125.1 122.3 125.6 124.3
Michigan 0-0 0-0 121.7 120.6 122.7 121.6
Penn St. 0-0 0-0 121.2 117.7 121.6 120.2
Maryland 0-0 0-0 102.2 100.2 100.5 101.0
Rutgers 0-0 0-0 98.4 97.0 96.2 97.2
Indiana 0-0 0-0 97.8 96.3 97.3 97.1
West Division
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 0-0 123.1 119.2 123.4 121.9
Northwestern 0-0 0-0 114.8 112.6 115.4 114.3
Iowa 0-0 0-0 113.2 110.0 112.0 111.7
Purdue 0-0 0-0 107.9 106.3 106.6 106.9
Minnesota 0-0 0-0 104.7 103.6 104.0 104.1
Nebraska 0-0 0-0 100.5 98.7 97.8 99.0
Illinois 0-0 0-0 94.0 93.5 92.9 93.5
Big Ten Averages 110.9 108.8 110.3 110.0

 

New Coaches
Not counting the two interim head coaches, Scott Frost is the lone new head coach in the league this year. Frost left undefeated Central Florida to return to his alma mater Nebraska. He turned UCF from an 0-12 team to a 14-0 team in just two years. If he can get Nebraska to a bowl in year one and then compete for 9 wins in 2019, he will have some property named after him in Lincoln.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. Ohio State and Maryland could see their ratings change by large amounts depending on the outcome of the two coaching investigations.

Team Conference Overall
East
Michigan St. 9-0 13-0*
Ohio St. 8-1 11-1
Michigan 7-2 10-2
Penn St. 6-3 9-3
Maryland 3-6 5-7
Rutgers 2-7 5-7
Indiana 0-9 2-10
West
Wisconsin 7-2 10-3
Iowa 7-2 10-2
Northwestern 5-4 7-5
Minnesota 5-4 8-4
Purdue 3-6 4-8
Nebraska 1-8 4-8
Illinois 0-9 2-10
* Michigan State to win Big Ten Champ. Game

Bowl Tie-ins
1. Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA
2. Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL
3. Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL
4. Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA
5. Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL or Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
6. Pinstripe Bowl in New York, NY
7. San Francisco Bowl in San Francisco, CA
8. Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, MI
9. Armed Forces Bowl in Forth Worth, TX
10. Heart of Dallas Bowl in Dallas, TX

Coming Tomorrow–The Atlantic Coast Conference

June 10, 2018

The PiRates Are Hard At Work For Football Season

Hello Mates.

This is the head PiRate telling you that we have set sail and are on our way out to the green sea, otherwise known as the Football Field.

We have already begun to update our college football ratings for the 2018 season.  We have a unique way of updating our ratings from the end of the previous season to the beginning of the new season.  We have point values assigned to every starting and backup position on offense and defense plus an overall rating for the components of special teams.

For instance, as it should be obvious, the Quarterback is the most important position in college football.  So, we take special care in determining how many points better or worse each of the 130 teams is in week one compared to their final game of the year before by adding or subtracting points based on the QB.  We look at certain analytics data, just like baseball teams look at advanced statistics.  We actually have our own version of WAR for college football.  Instead of Batting, Fielding, and Pitching WAR, we have offense, defense, and special teams WAR, only instead of putting the final numbers into wins above average, we use points per game above average.  In the PiRate Ratings, a rating of 100.0 is average.  If a quarterback is worth 6.3 points better than an average QB, then before we look at the reserves, a team that is totally average at every other position would begin the season at 106.3 for this particular piece of the ratings’ puzzle.  If a quarterback has been determined to be 3.8 points below average, it would reduce the average team from 100.0 to 96.2.

On offense, the receiving corps is the next most important part of the equation, while the offensive line and running back corps are equal in importance as the last two parts.

Defensively, we look at all three units as they play against the run and the pass.  Stopping the pass is more important these days than stopping the run.  Interceptions, Passes Broken Up, Sacks, and Hurries are all parts of the Pass defense stats we look at.  We also have special ratings for nose guards that have the responsibility of taking up space and keeping blockers away from the linebackers, as these heroes of the trenches rarely show up in box scores, until one of the behemoths gets injured, and his replacement prevents the star will linebacker from making his usual 14 tackles with 2 for loss.

We have an intangible part of this equation as well.  Say a team has a change in coaches.  The old coach was a spread option or flexbone disciple, while the new coach is an air raid disciple.  It’s going to take 2-4 years to fully implement the changes, as that five foot nine inch triple option QB is not going to work as a dropback passer.

Another example in an intangible is the team that had 9 key injuries the year before, and 8 of the 9 return at 100% after missing parts or all of the year before.

In 2018, there will be a case where a potential all-star junior quarterback will transfer from one Power 5 school to another and be immediately eligible.  This will have major effects on his new team, much more than if he were the top incoming freshman in the nation.  This QB has already proven himself in a power conference, while the top incoming freshman only proved himself in Georgia high school action.  There is a difference as deep as the Grand Canyon in comparing the two, even though the incoming freshman might eventually become the next John Elway.  The seasoned starter showed what he could do when he passed for close to 350 yards against Auburn, while the freshman threw for 220 yards against Troup County High School.

This is just one piece of a 5-prong process.  We rate each team against every other team using 5 different processes.  Once we are done, we use three different algorithms to come up with a PiRate, Mean, and Bias rating for each of the 130 teams.  The PiRate and Bias differ by very little, so they will frequently be highly correlated, while the Mean rating is somewhat different than the other two, because it takes the equally-weighted average of the five ratings, while the other two apply heavier weights to some of the five components.  Because they share the exact same weighting of the prong we showed you above, these two tend to stay correlated.

We know we have a lot of advanced mathematicians reading our blog, and we are grateful for your patronage.  We try to make this more analytically dominated than you might get from other sports rating sites and even break down the fourth wall from time to time to show you what we do.

If you are not a math fan and just love football, then fear not.  We still hope to have computer ratings that are as accurate as possible, and we still will make fools of ourselves weekly to issue free picks that you can then take and gift to Las Vegas if you are foolish enough to not realize that these picks are worth exactly what you pay for them.

We have 10 weeks to go.  With a lot of late night work, we hope to have the ratings ready for you in 9 weeks max.

Thanks,

The Captain

December 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Final Regular Season Polls

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:08 am

The PiRate Poll has been updated after the Conference Championship Games, and our ratings show something different from what the Playoff Committee will decide later today.

Our Retrodictive Ratings are our closest approximation to merit based rewards.  It only factors who you beat, where you beat them, when you beat them, and in minimal fashion how you beat them.  Here are our final Retro Ratings prior to the bowls and playoffs.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Clemson
2 Georgia
3 Oklahoma
4 Alabama
5 Ohio St.
6 Wisconsin
7 Central Florida
8 Penn St.
9 Auburn
10 Washington
11 Miami (Fla)
12 USC
13 Notre Dame
14 TCU
15 Virginia Tech
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Stanford
18 Michigan St.
19 Michigan
20 Washington St.
21 Northwestern
22 Memphis
23 LSU
24 North Carolina St.
25 Iowa
26 Louisville
27 Mississippi St.
28 Boston College
29 South Florida
30 Iowa St.
31 Boise St.
32 Toledo
33 Wake Forest
34 South Carolina
35 San Diego St.
36 Oregon
37 Florida Atlantic
38 Florida St.
39 Arizona St.
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 West Virginia
43 Purdue
44 Georgia Tech
45 Kansas St.
46 Missouri
47 Arizona
48 Fresno St.
49 UCLA
50 Navy
51 Troy
52 Houston
53 Texas Tech
54 Utah
55 Army
56 Kentucky
57 Duke
58 SMU
59 Northern Illinois
60 Indiana
61 Virginia
62 North Texas
63 California
64 Ole Miss
65 Ohio
66 Pittsburgh
67 Central Michigan
68 Minnesota
69 Florida
70 Syracuse
71 Maryland
72 Wyoming
73 Marshall
74 Appalachian St.
75 Colorado
76 Colorado St.
77 Temple
78 Nebraska
79 Western Michigan
80 Tulane
81 Arkansas St.
82 Florida Int’l.
83 Akron
84 Southern Miss.
85 Vanderbilt
86 Buffalo
87 Arkansas
88 UAB
89 Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 North Carolina
92 Eastern Michigan
93 Rutgers
94 Air Force
95 Louisiana Tech
96 Middle Tennessee
97 UTSA
98 Miami (O)
99 Cincinnati
100 Western Kentucky
101 Tulsa
102 UNLV
103 Baylor
104 New Mexico St.
105 BYU
106 East Carolina
107 Nevada
108 Georgia St.
109 Massachusetts
110 Connecticut
111 Illinois
112 Old Dominion
113 UL-Monroe
114 Bowling Green
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 South Alabama
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Coastal Carolina
122 Georgia Southern
123 Kansas
124 Kent St.
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

While our ratings show that Alabama should be chosen ahead of Ohio State, we believe there will be too much pressure to take two SEC teams and leave out the Big Ten and Pac-12, especially when the Rose Bowl is one of the semifinal games.

Our ratings reflect a 34-point loss by Ohio State at a mediocre Iowa team combined with a home loss to Oklahoma, which slightly offsets their wins over Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Alabama’s best wins were not as impressive as the Buckeyes, but as a whole, they did beat more decent teams, and the SEC is several points better than the Big Ten.  Plus, their one loss was at Auburn, a team that had just blown Georgia off the Jordan-Hare Field.  Truth be told, if the Committee deferred to the smart guys in Nevada, Alabama would be the number one seed in the playoffs.

Our Predictive ratings back us up on this point.  However, the predictive ratings show that Ohio State is one of the four best teams at this point of the season.  We are scratching our heads on why Oklahoma is so low in the predictive ratings, because they have been improving week by week.  Unfortunately, they may have fallen between the cracks in how we update.  We have a mechanical update based on statistics and the point in which an easy win was already guaranteed, and maybe OU kept missing out on extra points due to a few yards here or there.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
2 Clemson 132.8 129.9 132.6 131.8
3 Ohio St. 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
4 Georgia 130.6 129.9 131.2 130.6
5 Auburn 129.4 127.3 129.6 128.8
6 Penn St. 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
7 Oklahoma 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
8 Washington 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
9 Wisconsin 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
10 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
11 U S C 120.4 119.5 120.1 120.0
12 Stanford 120.7 119.1 120.1 120.0
13 Miami 119.3 118.1 118.2 118.5
14 L S U 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
15 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
16 Louisville 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
17 T C U 117.9 116.4 118.0 117.4
18 Florida St. 116.9 115.9 115.4 116.1
19 Notre Dame 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
20 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
21 Michigan 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
22 Northwestern 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
23 Central Florida 113.6 114.8 114.8 114.4
24 Iowa 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
25 Memphis 113.5 112.7 114.4 113.5
26 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
27 Boston College 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
28 Washington St. 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
29 Mississippi St. 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
30 Texas 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
31 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
32 Wake Forest 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
33 Oregon 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
34 Duke 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
35 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Missouri 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
38 West Virginia 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
39 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
40 Utah 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
41 Michigan St. 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
42 Arizona St. 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
43 S. Carolina 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
44 Texas A&M 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
45 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
46 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
47 Purdue 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
48 Kentucky 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
49 Arizona 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
50 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
51 Boise St. 105.7 104.5 105.8 105.3
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Toledo 103.6 103.6 105.6 104.3
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 U C L A 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 Virginia 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
58 San Diego St. 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
59 Houston 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Florida Atlantic 99.9 101.4 101.8 101.0
63 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
64 Navy 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
65 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Army 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
68 Troy 99.3 99.4 99.3 99.3
69 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
70 Fresno St. 98.9 97.6 99.8 98.8
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 SMU 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 96.5 97.9 97.4
74 Ohio U 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
75 Temple 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
76 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
77 Northern Illinois 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
79 Arkansas St. 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
80 Central Michigan 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
81 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
82 Wyoming 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
83 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
84 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
85 Utah St. 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
86 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
87 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
88 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
89 Marshall 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
90 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
91 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
92 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
93 Florida Int’l. 89.5 89.7 90.5 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 Massachusetts 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
98 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
99 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
100 Akron 87.7 89.6 88.4 88.6
101 Louisiana Tech 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
103 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
104 W. Kentucky 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
105 N. Texas 86.8 88.2 87.5 87.5
106 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
107 N. Mexico St. 85.8 84.7 85.9 85.5
108 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
113 UAB 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
114 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
115 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
116 UL-Monroe 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
117 S. Alabama 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
118 Idaho 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
119 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
120 Georgia St. 80.9 81.0 80.6 80.9
121 UL-Lafayette 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
122 Georgia Southern 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
123 Coastal Carolina 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
124 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 8-0 12-0 113.6 114.8 114.8 114.4
South Florida 6-2 9-2 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 4-4 6-6 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
Connecticut 2-6 3-9 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
Cincinnati 2-6 4-8 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
East Carolina 2-6 3-9 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 7-1 10-2 113.5 112.7 114.4 113.5
Houston 5-3 7-4 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
Navy 4-4 6-5 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
SMU 4-4 7-5 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
Tulane 3-5 5-7 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
Tulsa 1-7 2-10 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 12-1 132.8 129.9 132.6 131.8
Louisville 4-4 8-4 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
Florida St. 3-5 6-6 116.9 115.9 115.4 116.1
N. Carolina St. 6-2 8-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Boston College 4-4 7-5 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
Wake Forest 4-4 7-5 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-1 10-2 119.3 118.1 118.2 118.5
Virginia Tech 5-3 9-3 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
Duke 3-5 6-6 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-6 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
Virginia 3-5 6-6 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
N. Carolina 1-7 3-9 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.1 112.0 112.6 112.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 12-1 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
Oklahoma St. 6-3 9-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 7-2 10-3 117.9 116.4 118.0 117.4
Iowa State 5-4 7-5 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Texas 5-4 6-6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
Kansas St. 5-4 7-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-4 7-5 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
Baylor 1-8 1-11 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-9 1-11 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 8-1 11-2 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
Penn St. 7-2 10-2 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
Michigan 5-4 8-4 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
Michigan St. 7-2 9-3 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
Indiana 2-7 5-7 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
Maryland 2-7 4-8 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
Rutgers 3-6 4-8 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 9-0 12-1 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
Northwestern 7-2 9-3 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
Iowa 4-5 7-5 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
Purdue 4-5 6-6 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
Minnesota 2-7 5-7 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
Nebraska 3-6 4-8 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
Illinois 0-9 2-10 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 8-0 10-3 99.9 101.4 101.8 101.0
Marshall 4-4 7-5 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
Middle Tennessee 4-4 6-6 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
Florida Int’l. 5-3 8-4 89.5 89.7 90.5 89.9
W. Kentucky 4-4 6-6 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
Charlotte 1-7 1-11 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-5 6-5 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
Southern Miss. 6-2 8-4 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
N. Texas 7-1 9-4 86.8 88.2 87.5 87.5
UAB 6-2 8-4 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
Rice 1-7 1-11 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
U T E P 0-8 0-12 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
             
CUSA Averages     84.2 85.6 85.0 84.9
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-3 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
Army   8-3 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
Massachusetts   4-8 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
BYU   4-9 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     98.7 98.3 98.7 98.6
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
Miami (O) 4-4 5-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Buffalo 4-4 6-6 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
Akron 6-2 7-6 87.7 89.6 88.4 88.6
Bowling Green 2-6 2-10 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
Kent St. 1-7 2-10 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 7-1 11-2 103.6 103.6 105.6 104.3
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
Western Michigan 4-4 6-6 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
Central Michigan 6-2 8-4 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
Eastern Michigan 3-5 5-7 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
Ball St. 0-8 2-10 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-1 10-3 105.7 104.5 105.8 105.3
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-3 7-5 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
Utah St. 4-4 6-6 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
Air Force 4-4 5-7 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
New Mexico 1-7 3-9 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-2 10-2 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
Fresno St. 7-1 9-4 98.9 97.6 99.8 98.8
Nevada 3-5 3-9 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
U N L V 4-4 5-7 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
Hawaii 1-8 3-9 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
San Jose St. 1-7 2-11 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
             
MWC Averages     92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 7-2 10-2 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
Stanford 7-2 9-4 120.7 119.1 120.1 120.0
Washington St. 6-3 9-3 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
Oregon 4-5 7-5 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
California 2-7 5-7 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 11-2 120.4 119.5 120.1 120.0
Utah 3-6 6-6 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
Arizona St. 6-3 7-5 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
Arizona 5-4 7-5 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
U C L A 4-5 6-6 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
Colorado 2-7 5-7 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 12-1 130.6 129.9 131.2 130.6
Missouri 4-4 7-5 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
S. Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
Kentucky 4-4 7-5 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
Florida 3-5 4-7 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
Vanderbilt 1-7 5-7 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
Tennessee 0-8 4-8 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
Auburn 7-1 10-3 129.4 127.3 129.6 128.8
L S U 6-2 9-3 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
Arkansas 1-7 4-8 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
             
SEC Averages     112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 7-1 10-2 99.3 99.4 99.3 99.3
Appalachian St. 7-1 8-4 97.7 96.5 97.9 97.4
Arkansas St. 6-2 7-4 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
N. Mexico St. 4-4 6-6 85.8 84.7 85.9 85.5
UL-Monroe 4-4 4-8 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
S. Alabama 3-5 4-8 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
Idaho 3-5 4-8 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
Georgia St. 5-3 6-5 80.9 81.0 80.6 80.9
UL-Lafayette 4-4 5-7 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
Georgia Southern 2-6 2-10 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
Coastal Carolina 2-6 3-9 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
Texas St. 1-7 2-10 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.8 84.5 83.8 84.1

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.1 112.0 112.6 112.6
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
5 BIG TEN 108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 98.7 98.3 98.7 98.6
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.2 85.6 85.0 84.9
11 Sun Belt 83.8 84.5 83.8 84.1

Look for our bowl and playoff spreads following next week’s Army – Navy game.

If you didn’t see our Army-Navy spread last week, it is:

Philadelphia PA PiRate Mean Bias
Army (n) Navy -0.4 -1.0 -0.3

Why the unique color purple?

This is what we call Love Purple.  You can replicate it with the RGB of 69-0-169 and the Hex Code of 4500A9.

Love purple is the official logo color of our mom and pop company in Nashville.  We are highly appreciative of all our supporters here, and we wish you a loving and joyous holiday season.

 

 

 

October 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 26-28, 2017

Oh brother!  I leave my ladies in charge of the website for a few days, and when I return from a nice long weekend, they have rearranged all the e-furniture.  Worse, they exchanged the Money Line picks I had left with their own, and they actually enjoyed a winning week.  They issued four selections (totally different than what I had left to be published), and they won two of the four for a return on investment of 28%.

Believe me, I have not heard the end of this.  Mrs. Captain, of course, sided with her gender, and so this week, I must defer to the ladies to pick the parlays yet again.  All I have done is to organize their picks into the best possible parlay odds by sourcing the best odds from the available books.  What you have as a result are four more parlays, each returning greater than +120 odds (actually this week better than +150) while playing no more than three games per parlay.

Because the ladies selected to teams to win outright as underdogs, and to minimize risk, I have combined these two underdogs in one parlay that, if it wins, it would return an incredible payoff at +375 (a $100 investment would return $475).

One preface to this before you look at the parlays.  Two of the ladies here bleed scarlet and gray and believe that the Giant Horseshoe is a basilica, tabernacle, shrine, and temple.  They believe that script Ohio is akin to the holy scriptures.  Their key pick this week is Ohio State over Penn State, and to add to their partiality, they refer to the opponent at State Pen, and they believe James Franklin was set on Earth by Lucifer.

Personally, I see the Buckeyes ready to get their revenge, but I know Coach Franklin and have seen him work miracles at Vanderbilt.  If he could win at Georgia and Florida as a bigger underdog than his Nittany Lions will be tomorrow, then he can certainly channel his inner Tom Lasorda and get his team ready to run through the walls at said horseshoe.  I would not have selected this game as part of a parlay, but then I have ceded control of this submission to the lasses.

#1 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Marshall
Georgia Florida
#2 @ +162  
Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Vanderbilt
Notre Dame NC State
Texas Baylor
#3 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Iowa Minnesota
Ohio St. Penn St.
#4 @ +375  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Michigan St.
Wyoming New Mexico

Money Line Parlay Tutorial for newcomers to this site

If you are new to Money Lines and Parlays, hopefully this will explain it well enough for you to understand what is going on above.

When two sports teams play, the more familiar way to provide options for wagering is a pointspread.  For instance, say that Notre Dame is playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Alabama might be favored to win by 6 1/2 points.  In order for Alabama to win the game for those that bet on the Crimson Tide, they would have to win by 7 or more points.  If Notre Dame won or lost by 6 points or less, then those that wagered on Notre Dame would win their bets.

There is another way to bet on this game.  It is called the “Money Line.”  Pointspreads are not used.  Instead, you simply pick either Alabama or Notre Dame to win the game.  If you can bet on Alabama to win this game, even by one point, it sounds too good to be true.  Yes, there is a catch here.  In order to bet on Alabama, you must put up more money than the sports book, but if you bet on the underdog Irish to win the game, the book puts up more money than you.  This is why the wager is called a “money line.”

When you look at money line odds, the favorite will have a minus number, and the underdog will have a plus number, although there are times when a tossup game will have two minus numbers.  The reason for this is that the sports books must get their cut or vigorish.

Let’s look at a couple games to be played tonight.  Northern Illinois hosts Eastern Michigan, and NIU is a modest favorite.  The Money Line is available at about 15 sports books where one could make a wager in one’s home via the Internet.  The line may vary from site to sire, so it is best to shop around to find the best odds.

For our purposes in this tutorial, we will use one famous online sports book, Five Dimes.  At the present time, the Money Line odds at 5D for the NIU-EMU game is listed at:   Northern Illinois -275, Eastern Michigan +235.

If you want to wager on NIU, you must put up $275 for every $100 5 Dimes puts up.  If you wager $100 on NIU to win, you will $36.36 profit and receive back $136.36 if NIU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.  If you wager $100 on EMU to win, you will receive $275 profit and receive back $375 if EMU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.

When you combine two or more games into one money line wager, your odds improve, but your chances of winning all the games in the one wager go down.  Let’s say you want to combine three favorites into one betting wager.  Let’s say you are going to play a parlay that includes Favorite #1 at -250, Favorite #2 at -225, and Favorite #3 at -180.

How do yo determine what the odds would be on this parlay of three favorites, all of whom would have to win their games for you to win your wager?  I won’t bore you with the mathematical formula.  There is an easy way to figure the odds, and it is called a parlay calculator.  You don’t have to buy this from a Las Vegas book store.  They are available for free in many places online.  In our opinion, the parlay calculator at Vegasinsider.com is the easiest one to use.  You can find this calculator at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

First, we select $100 for the bet amount (you can put any other amount in this spot, but all of the PiRate Rating parlays are played at $100 per wager.  We simply input -250, -225-, and -180 adjacent to Team #1 Money Line, Team #2 Money Line, and Team #3 Money Line.  Then we click on “Calculate”, and we see the number $214.57 returned.  This means that if these three favorites we have selected all win their games, we will make a $214.57 profit and receive $314.57 in our account (The profit plus what we wagered).  If the three teams do not all win their games, we will be out the $100 we invested on this game.  It can be a headache to see two teams win their games, and then your final favored team loses in an upset due to a fourth quarter field goal, but it happens, and you have to live with it.

Our goal at the PiRate Ratings is to select parlays that return better than +120 odds, while betting mostly on favored teams.  We prefer to play no more than three games in a parlay, but there are times when we might play 6 or 7 prohibitive favorites when the odds look preferable.  We won a 7-team parlay once that returned +200 odds, and all 7 teams won by double-digits.  Of course, this is a rare event.  Every week, some big underdog will upset a favorite.  In recent weeks, we had some considerable underdogs pulling off big upsets.  Syracuse surprised Clemson.  Arizona State beat up on Washington, Arizona took out Washington State, Tulsa whipped Houston, Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Troy beat LSU.  These sure things that could have been included on parlays destroyed the selections.

As usual, read this and understand it: The PiRates never wager real currency on our selections.  We enjoy the fun that mathematics married to athletics brings a group of math geeks.  We only wager imaginary money on these games, and thus we have no worries about issuing these picks.  They are strictly for the fun of it, and enjoying a winning week is a win for mathematics and not our bank accounts.

Enjoy the games, but be just as wealthy on Sunday morning as you are on Saturday morning.

 

October 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Toledo -29.0 -26.8 -29.3
Georgia St. South Alabama -0.7 -3.5 -1.1
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.3 1.6
Oregon St. Stanford -25.0 -23.9 -25.8
Boston College Florida St. -11.7 -10.5 -10.5
Memphis Tulane 12.3 11.5 11.9
SMU Tulsa 4.6 4.9 5.2
Purdue Nebraska 5.4 4.3 7.0
Kentucky Tennessee 6.4 6.9 7.7
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.8 8.6 9.2
Akron Buffalo 4.2 4.3 2.7
South Florida Houston 13.5 12.7 14.7
Wake Forest Louisville -3.4 -3.8 -3.6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) -19.1 -17.9 -19.6
Michigan Rutgers 20.0 20.2 19.5
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13.2 14.2 14.3
Massachusetts Appalachian St. -4.6 -3.5 -4.3
Pittsburgh Virginia 6.2 6.9 5.1
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.0 13.8 14.7
Connecticut Missouri -9.8 -5.3 -8.6
West Virginia Oklahoma St. -11.3 -9.7 -12.0
Maryland Indiana -0.9 0.4 -1.6
Virginia Tech Duke 18.5 18.7 20.2
Illinois Wisconsin -30.8 -26.5 -30.8
Coastal Carolina Texas St. 3.9 2.4 6.4
Deleted Game 0 0 0
Kansas Kansas St. -29.6 -26.4 -30.5
Iowa Minnesota 9.5 8.5 10.0
Wyoming New Mexico 7.2 6.1 5.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -3.1 -6.4 -4.3
BYU San Jose St. 15.0 14.8 15.1
UTEP UTSA -18.4 -17.3 -19.5
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe 1.8 2.5 3.3
Colorado St. Air Force 15.8 14.0 15.6
Southern Miss. UAB 17.4 15.2 15.8
Colorado California 3.9 4.7 3.2
Arizona St. USC -5.0 -5.3 -4.7
Rice Louisiana Tech -10.8 -11.4 -11.3
Oregon Utah 5.3 1.8 3.9
Notre Dame N. Carolina St. 5.7 4.9 6.3
Washington UCLA 23.7 21.8 24.7
Troy Georgia Southern 23.8 22.5 24.0
Northwestern Michigan St. 10.4 7.1 9.5
Deleted Game 0 0 0
North Texas Old Dominion 3.4 2.7 3.9
Baylor Texas -12.9 -11.7 -13.7
Iowa St. TCU -6.6 -4.1 -6.1
Florida (n) Georgia -12.3 -13.6 -13.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 0.6 -2.3 0.1
Arizona Washington St. -10.0 -8.7 -10.7
Oklahoma Texas Tech 20.3 19.3 21.5
Ole Miss Arkansas 6.4 5.5 5.6
Ohio St. Penn St. 9.0 8.4 7.8
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 1.4 -1.5 0.5
Utah St. Boise St. -6.4 -5.5 -6.4
Fresno St. UNLV 16.4 12.9 17.4
Hawaii San Diego St. -7.1 -6.2 -8.0
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Florida Austin Peay 41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Penn St.
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Notre Dame
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Central Florida
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Michigan St.
15 Stanford
16 Virginia Tech
17 North Carolina St.
18 Washington St.
19 USC
20 Auburn
21 South Florida
22 Michigan
23 Texas A&M
24 Mississippi St.
25 LSU
26 Iowa St.
27 Memphis
28 Georgia Tech
29 Toledo
30 West Virginia
31 Iowa
32 Boise St.
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona St.
35 Navy
36 Louisville
37 Fresno St.
38 San Diego St.
39 Arizona
40 Florida St.
41 Wake Forest
42 Texas
43 Northwestern
44 UCLA
45 Florida
46 Boston College
47 Texas Tech
48 Marshall
49 Colorado St.
50 Kentucky
51 SMU
52 Syracuse
53 Oregon
54 Northern Illinois
55 Indiana
56 California
57 Utah
58 Purdue
59 Virginia
60 Western Michigan
61 Houston
62 Troy
63 Minnesota
64 Maryland
65 Appalachian St.
66 Kansas St.
67 Army
68 Florida Atlantic
69 Duke
70 Pittsburgh
71 Southern Miss.
72 Nebraska
73 Colorado
74 Tennessee
75 Ohio
76 Ole Miss
77 Arkansas St.
78 Vanderbilt
79 Tulane
80 Akron
81 Arkansas
82 Air Force
83 Rutgers
84 Wyoming
85 North Texas
86 Utah St.
87 UTSA
88 New Mexico
89 Louisiana Tech
90 Florida Int’l.
91 Western Kentucky
92 Missouri
93 Tulsa
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Central Michigan
96 Cincinnati
97 Temple
98 North Carolina
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico St.
101 Miami (O)
102 Georgia St.
103 Middle Tennessee
104 South Alabama
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 UL-Monroe
109 UAB
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 UNLV
113 Hawaii
114 Oregon St.
115 BYU
116 UL-Lafayette
117 Old Dominion
118 Kent St.
119 Idaho
120 Bowling Green
121 Massachusetts
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Charlotte
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Georgia Southern
130 Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
3 Penn St. 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
4 Georgia 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
5 Washington 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
6 Clemson 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
7 Auburn 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
8 Oklahoma St. 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
9 Virginia Tech 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
10 Oklahoma 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
11 Miami 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
12 Notre Dame 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
13 Wisconsin 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
14 Stanford 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
15 T C U 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
16 Florida St. 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
17 N. Carolina St. 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
18 Washington St. 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
19 U S C 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
20 L S U 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
21 Georgia Tech 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
22 Texas 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
24 Florida 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
25 Louisville 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
26 Michigan 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
27 Kansas St. 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
29 Iowa State 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
30 Mississippi St. 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
31 Syracuse 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
32 Northwestern 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
33 West Virginia 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
34 Iowa 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
35 Texas A&M 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
36 Arizona St. 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
37 S. Carolina 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
38 Kentucky 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
39 Wake Forest 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
40 U C L A 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
41 Boston College 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
42 Duke 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
43 Colo. State 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
44 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
45 Oregon 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
46 Indiana 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
47 Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
48 Michigan St. 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
49 Memphis 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
50 Utah 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
51 Arizona 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
52 California 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
53 Texas Tech 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
54 Minnesota 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
55 Ole Miss 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
56 Purdue 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
59 Toledo 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
60 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
61 Virginia 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
62 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
63 Houston 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
64 Maryland 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
65 Arkansas 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
66 Nebraska 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
67 Baylor 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
68 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
69 N. Carolina 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
70 SMU 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
71 San Diego St. 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
72 Army 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
73 Missouri 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
74 Fresno St. 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
75 Tulsa 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Eastern Michigan 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
77 Florida Atlantic 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
78 Tulane 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
79 Troy 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
80 Ohio U 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
82 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
83 Marshall 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
84 Appalachian St. 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
85 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
86 Northern Illinois 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
87 Utah St. 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
88 U T S A 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
89 Air Force 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
90 W. Kentucky 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
91 Temple 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
92 Oregon St. 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
93 Central Michigan 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
94 New Mexico 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
95 Miami (O) 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
96 Louisiana Tech 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
97 BYU 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
98 Massachusetts 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
99 Cincinnati 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
100 Illinois 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
101 N. Mexico St. 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
103 Akron 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
104 S. Alabama 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
105 Nevada 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
106 Connecticut 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
107 Buffalo 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
108 Hawaii 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
109 U N L V 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
110 Middle Tennessee 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
111 Florida Int’l. 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
112 N. Texas 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
113 Old Dominion 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
114 Georgia St. 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
115 East Carolina 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
116 UL-Lafayette 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
117 Kansas 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
118 UL-Monroe 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
119 Idaho 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
120 Bowling Green 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
121 Kent St. 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
122 San Jose St. 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
123 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
124 Georgia Southern 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
125 UAB 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
126 U T E P 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
129 Ball St. 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
130 Texas St. 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 6-0 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
South Florida 4-0 7-0 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
Connecticut 2-3 3-4 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 3-1 6-1 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
Houston 2-2 4-3 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
SMU 2-1 5-2 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
Tulsa 1-3 2-6 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
Florida St. 2-3 2-4 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
Louisville 2-3 5-3 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
Wake Forest 1-3 4-3 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
Boston College 2-3 4-4 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 2-1 6-1 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 4-0 6-0 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
Duke 1-4 4-4 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
Pittsburgh 1-3 3-5 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
Virginia 2-1 5-2 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
N. Carolina 0-5 1-7 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 3-1 6-1 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
T C U 4-0 7-0 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
Texas 2-2 3-4 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
Kansas St. 1-3 3-4 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
Iowa State 3-1 5-2 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
West Virginia 3-1 5-2 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
Texas Tech 1-3 4-3 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
Baylor 0-4 0-7 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
Kansas 0-4 1-6 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
Penn St. 4-0 7-0 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
Michigan 2-2 5-2 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
Indiana 0-4 3-4 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
Michigan St. 4-0 6-1 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
Maryland 1-3 3-4 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
Rutgers 2-2 3-4 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-0 7-0 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
Northwestern 2-2 4-3 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
Iowa 1-3 4-3 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
Minnesota 1-3 4-3 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
Purdue 1-3 3-4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
Illinois 0-4 2-5 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 3-0 4-3 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
Marshall 3-0 6-1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
W. Kentucky 3-1 5-2 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
Old Dominion 0-3 2-5 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 1-2 4-2 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
Louisiana Tech 1-2 3-4 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
Southern Miss. 3-1 5-2 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
N. Texas 3-1 4-3 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
Rice 1-2 1-6 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
U T E P 0-3 0-7 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
Army   6-2 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
BYU   1-7 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
Massachusetts   1-6 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
             
Indep. Averages     99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
Akron 3-1 4-4 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-1 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 2-5 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
Ball St. 0-3 2-5 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 4-0 6-2 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
Boise St. 3-0 5-2 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
Wyoming 2-1 4-3 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
Utah St. 2-2 4-4 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
Air Force 2-2 3-4 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
New Mexico 1-3 3-4 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-2 6-2 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
Fresno St. 4-0 5-2 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
U N L V 1-3 2-5 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
Stanford 4-1 5-2 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
Oregon 1-4 4-4 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
California 1-4 4-4 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-2 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
Arizona St. 3-1 4-3 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
U C L A 2-2 4-3 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
Colorado 1-4 4-4 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
Utah 1-3 4-3 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
Arizona 3-1 5-2 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
Florida 3-2 3-3 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
Kentucky 2-2 5-2 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
Missouri 0-4 2-5 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
L S U 3-1 6-2 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
Mississippi St. 2-2 5-2 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
Arkansas 0-4 2-5 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 2-1 5-2 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-2 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
S. Alabama 2-1 3-4 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
Georgia St. 2-1 3-3 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
UL-Monroe 3-2 3-4 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
Idaho 1-2 2-5 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-6 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
Coastal Carolina 0-4 1-6 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC North Texas South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Houston Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Arizona
New Mexico CUSA MWC La. Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC N. Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Colorado] Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Fla. Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 SMU [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Arkansas St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Navy San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Virginia [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Iowa USC
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [Western Ky.] Boston Coll.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech West Virginia
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Georgia St.
Cotton At-large At-large TCU Arizona St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1

 

 

September 28, 2017

Is It Time For The Professional University Football League?

Many times in the last quarter century, multiple sports professionals have bantered about having one super conference in college sports. Media members, former athletic administrators and others have discussed what might happen if the largest financially successful athletic programs drop all pretenses and secede from the NCAA, forming their own professional college league.

The PiRates have always believed in amateur athletics, but at this point, it is hard to keep the amateur in high school athletics, where you have football and basketball factory high schools all over the country.

Maybe the time has come for the big boys to leave the supposedly amateur NCAA and form a new entity. The time may be the most ideal since the thought first became public.

With the NFL potentially crippled for the near term and maybe never again to experience the heights it enjoyed since it surpassed baseball circa 1969, when the Major Leagues divided into divisions, meaning the two best teams did not always play in the World Series, and when Joe Namath made that Super Bowl III guarantee.

Add to this the current FBI probe that has already brought down Rick Pitino and many assistant coaches and may eventually lead to some top schools landing in serious trouble. Recruiting the 5-star athletes leads to all sorts of dirty underhanded dealing.

The fix would be for the 32 biggest football factories to leave the NCAA and form their own professional league of universities.

What we call the PUFL (Professional University Football League) could take these 32 great teams with the gragantuan football stadiums and divide into eight divisions of four teams each. The league could play a 16-game schedule with a couple of pre-season games, and then 12 teams would make the playoffs, leading up to the College Super Bowl, or whatever they might call it.

Instead of recruiting and signing players who would enroll in college as students, the players would be reclassified as employees and would not go to school as students. There would be a draft similar to the early days of the American Football League. Certain players living near a campus could be reserved and signed by the school in their area, but only a small amount. The remainder of the top talent could be drafted and signed to a 3-year contract. The draft would run for 16 rounds, and each drafted player would be guaranteed a 3-year contract.  After the third year, players could move on to the NFL or sign a new 1-year contract and remain employed with the college.  An option could be that the player could become a free agent after three years and sign with another college.

After 16 rounds, the schools could then sign free agent high school talents in order to fill out a 60-man roster. With 60 players under contract for 3-year contracts, each school would then have a salary cap of $6 million. That would mean the average player would make $100,000 per year. There would be no need to have boosters paying recruits to receive under the table payments, because the top 512 players would belong to the team that drafted them (16 draft rounds of 32 teams).

The $6 million in salaries would more than be made up by added revenue from a television contract that would dwarf today’s current NCAA contract. All the major networks might want to participate. With 16 games a week, all 16 games could be televised nationally. The ratings would go through the roof, and the schools could make much more money than they currently do.

The Big Ten and SEC schools currently receive around $30-40 million from their networks.  According to the Green Bay Packers’ financial records, each NFL team received $244 million in TV revenue in 2016. We believe the PUFL teams could top that and maybe receive $300-500 million a year! The college game has the potential to do to the NFL what the NFL did to all other sports. This might be the time to strike, while the NFL has a serious wound that worsens daily, and while some current basketball personnel may be soon wearing a uniform with stripes for 2 to 5 years.

This is our offering for the 32 teams

Eastern Division
Maryland
Penn St.
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

Mideast Division
Michigan
Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Ohio St.

Midwest Division
Iowa
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Wisconsin

Lower South Division
Clemson
Florida
Florida St.
Miami

Upper South Division
Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
Tennessee

Southwest Division
Arkansas
LSU
Texas
Texas A&M

Upper West Division
California
Oregon
Utah
Washington

Lower West Division
Arizona St.
San Diego St.
UCLA
USC

Imagine it is Thanksgiving Day. In the early morning, Ohio State and Michigan can play. A little later, Alabama and Auburn would square off. After this game kicks off, Nebraska and Oklahoma would begin, followed by Texas and Texas A&M. Then in the late afternoon, Washington and Oregon would play, followed by UCLA and USC in the late game. Because teams in the same division would play twice a year, you could easily stage the second game on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Or, you could add other potential bonanza games like USC-Notre Dame, Texas-Arkansas, Penn State-West Virginia, LSU-Alabama, Florida-Florida State, or Clemson-Georgia.

If fans will pay $50+ to see Alabama and Fresno State or Ohio State and UNLV in non-conference games, how much might an Alabama-Oklahoma or a Ohio State-USC game command?

Think about TV ratings. Rather than have to stick with a 59-0 massacre, CBS would not have to worry about a terrible mismatch like Alabama pasting Vanderbilt. With an annual draft of the top players, Alabama or anybody else would not be 59 points better than another opponent. In fact, Alabama fans would have to deal with seasons where 12-4 records might be the best they can expect. Some current power might be hung with a string of losing seasons rather than suffer through a 7-win rebuilding season with three or four wins over the little sisters of the poor.

What would happen to all the other schools? Do you really think these big behemoths would care all that much? The other schools would have to make do with what was left over. Maybe, they could return to educating first with athletics becoming more of a real amateur competition. Would a leftover school really try to go after the 700th best athlete by throwing money at him? Would the shoe companies or some Nationwide Ned try to broker players to schools, when all the 4 and 5-star athletes would be off limits to them?

It could lead to new Ivy League type conferences. Duke, Northwestern, Stanford, Army, Navy, Air Force, Vanderbilt, Tulane, and Rice could form a league and bring back some of the former football greats of the past that once played major college football, like Fordham. These schools could team up with the current Ivy League and Patriot League and form their own alliance of teams that put academics first ahead of athletics.

September 7, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Selections For: September 7-11, 2017

Recent PiRate Ratings history has shown that our money line parlay selections have been rather mediocre in the month of September. It figures, since we only select parlays that produce returns of better than 100% if they win. It can be harder earlier in the season to get a solid grasp on teams that we feel are certain to win and not just should win.
Today, we are going to include two long shot parlays that we felt compelled to select, just for the fact that they offer crazy returns, while at the same time looking quite possible.
We hope you do not wager your hard-earned money based on our advice. We know there are many of you that do not heed that recommendation. If you want to lose, you should at least lose picking games from your heart and brain. We never lose, because all we wager is the little bit of time it takes to select our parlays. In our hearts and brains, this is always a lot of fun, so we are guaranteed winners every week.

As for the opening week of the pretend wagering season, we selected just one parlay. It was looking good for awhile, until the Cal Bears put a hurtin’ on North Carolina in Chapel Hill. We lost the 5-game parlay on that one game, as the other four went our way. Alas, as with parlays that return better than 100%, this happens.

This week, we are going with five different parlays. Two of these parlays are long shots, returning hefty profits if they should happen to miraculously win. One of these two could almost guarantee another winning season if it wins, and it incredibly allows us to go with two ranked teams, one in the top 5!

Looking at the official numbers, after one week, we are at $-100 on $100 invested. That is a 100% loss on investment to date.

Here are this week’s parlay selections

 

#1 @ +118  
Must Win Must Lose
Purdue Ohio
New Mexico New Mexico St.

Purdue’s new offense has not yet hit its stride, and it may not this season.  However, the Boilermakers have some athletes getting a chance to shine after being restrained prior to Jeff Brohm’s arrival.  After giving Louisville all it could handle last week, we believe the team believes in Brohm and will come out firing on all cylinders at Ross Ade Stadium.

As for the rivalry in the Land of Enchantment, New Mexico looks like the superior team on both sides of the ball, but the Aggies are not that far behind.  In most years, the Lobos would be stronger favorites.  We believe New Mexico’s running game will eventually control what happens on the scoreboard.

 

 

#2 @ +140  
Must Win Must Lose
UTEP Rice
Miss St. La. Tech

UTEP  looked a tad bit better against Oklahoma than Rice looked against Stanford, and this game is in El Paso.  Throw in the possibility that the Owls may be on the verge of quitting on David Bailiff, while the Miners still have faith in Sean Kugler.

Mississippi State does play Louisiana Tech in Rustin this week, but the Tech home field advantage should not affect the outcome of this game.  The Bulldogs never seem to get the respect they deserve under Dan Mullen.  They are better than any team in CUSA, and they should win this game by double digits.

 

#3 @ +1010  
Must Win Must Lose
Oklahoma Ohio St.
Stanford USC

This parlay intrigued us all week, so we just had to use it.  How frequently does one get a chance to return 10 times his investment while playing two ranked teams?  We are going with the Number 5 and Number 14 team to win, in other words, not really shocking upsets if they happen.  We know the chance that both underdogs win on the road is slim, but hey, this is for more than a thousand in winnings on just $100 invested.

 

 

#4 @ +178  
Must Win Must Lose
Atlanta Chicago
Pittsburgh Cleveland
Denver LA Chargers

This is more like our typical parlay plays.  We believe these three favorites have an excellent chance of starting the year 1-0, and at $178 profit for every $100 invested, it gives a generous reward if the three teams win.

 

 

#5 @ +478  
Must Win Must Lose
Baltimore Cincinnati
New Orleans Minnesota

Seldom is a +478 parlay our favorite selection of a week, but this one is.  It is our opinion that the wrong teams are favored in these two games.  The odds makers are giving the home teams much too much advantage for playing at home.  Cincinnati does not have the great home field advantage it had in the good ole days.  Minnesota’s advantage comes later in the season.  We will go with superior quarterbacks in these two games.

 

Once again, please do not wager your own money (or anybody else’s) on our recommendations.  We go a bit liberal with our selections, because we don’t have any financial stake at risk.

 

 

 

September 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 7-9, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:51 pm

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Purdue Ohio U 8.3 8.7 8.1
South Alabama Oklahoma St. -34.5 -30.2 -36.1
Wisconsin Florida Atlantic 44.7 37.0 42.2
Army Buffalo 16.7 12.9 15.6
Michigan St. Western Michigan -5.2 2.7 -6.3
Rutgers Eastern Michigan 7.1 6.5 6.2
Massachusetts Old Dominion -4.5 -8.3 -5.3
Duke Northwestern -2.7 -2.0 -4.0
Connecticut South Florida -20.3 -15.3 -20.9
West Virginia East Carolina 24.3 24.0 24.2
Michigan Cincinnati 32.3 28.4 30.0
North Carolina Louisville -3.8 -4.4 -5.8
Kansas St. Charlotte 42.2 38.9 42.1
Iowa St. Iowa -9.3 -7.3 -8.3
Boston College Wake Forest 2.3 3.7 2.5
New Mexico New Mexico St. 8.6 11.8 10.4
UTEP Rice -0.6 2.9 0.4
Colorado Texas St. 47.4 40.6 46.6
Ball St. UAB 17.2 13.8 16.4
Syracuse Middle Tennessee 23.7 20.4 21.7
Virginia Indiana -2.4 -2.5 -1.4
Penn St. Pittsburgh 19.4 17.1 20.9
Alabama Fresno St. 48.8 45.5 47.8
Navy Tulane 8.1 8.6 7.6
Illinois Western Kentucky -7.0 -2.5 -10.4
Baylor UTSA 12.6 13.3 10.3
UCLA Hawaii 23.3 20.5 22.6
Kansas Central Michigan 5.4 8.6 4.3
Oregon Nebraska 10.2 5.1 9.8
Arkansas St. Miami (Fla.) -26.1 -22.2 -23.6
Texas San Jose St. 25.8 28.0 26.5
Arkansas TCU 0.8 3.3 1.1
Tulsa UL-Lafayette 21.5 18.4 21.6
North Carolina St. Marshall 35.2 32.7 33.8
Nevada Toledo -10.5 -6.8 -9.8
Florida St. UL-Monroe 48.1 45.8 48.9
Missouri South Carolina 1.3 -1.9 0.8
SMU North Texas 17.6 16.1 17.9
Clemson Auburn 7.4 5.7 6.6
Notre Dame Georgia -2.2 -5.4 -2.2
Louisiana Tech Mississippi St. -12.0 -11.0 -11.4
Ohio St. Oklahoma 11.6 10.5 9.8
Central Florida Memphis 0.8 3.8 1.3
USC Stanford 2.9 5.0 4.2
Idaho UNLV 5.9 5.3 6.3
Oregon St. Minnesota -4.1 -4.5 -5.4
Arizona St. San Diego St. 5.9 4.9 3.0
BYU Utah -2.8 -6.6 -2.6
Arizona Houston -2.3 -2.4 -4.6
Washington St. Boise St. 23.4 21.8 23.3

FBS vs. FCS Games

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Utah St. Idaho St. 25
Florida Northern Colorado 40
Kentucky Eastern Kentucky 30
LSU Chattanooga 40
Ole Miss UT-Martin 30
Tennessee Indiana St. 37
Vanderbilt Alabama A&M 45
Colorado St. Abilene Christian 37
Wyoming Gardner-Webb 29
Florida Int’l. Alcorn St. 15
Maryland Towson 33
Georgia Tech Jacksonville St. 18
Temple Villanova 19
Appalachian St. Savannah St. 46
Miami (O) Austin Peay 24
Northern Illinois Eastern Illinois 20
Kent St. Howard 22
Virginia Tech Delaware 41
California Weber St. 29
Georgia Southern New Hampshire 11
Troy Alabama St. 35
Bowling Green South Dakota 5
Southern Miss. Southern U 23
Texas A&M Nicholls St. 38
Akron Ark.-Pine Bluff 42
Washington Montana 41

Is this really just week two of the college football season? Normally, in week two, you get 40 FBS vs. FCS games on the schedule. You get the Big Ten playing the MAC; other Power 5 teams playing the weakest Group of 5 teams they can schedule if they didn’t get a FCS patsy. At best, you might get one or two marquee matchups and maybe a couple of okay conference games.
There are 26 FBS vs. FCS contests this week, but even a couple of those might now be interesting after Howard upset UNLV, Liberty knocked off Baylor, Tennessee State beat Georgia State, and James Madison took out East Carolina. There are a half dozen FCS teams this week that have a legitimate chance to beat an FBS team, led by South Dakota, which might even be favored over Bowling Green when the extra lines are released later this week.
There are some Power 5 vs. Group of 5 patsy games on the schedule, but there are a few that could become upsets, like Ohio at Purdue, Western Michigan at Michigan State, Eastern Michigan at Rutgers, Western Kentucky at Illinois, Central Michigan at Kansas, San Diego State at Arizona State, Houston at Arizona, and Boise State at Washington State. There are actually two Group of 5 teams hosting Power 5 teams. Mississippi State risks humility at tough Louisiana Tech, while Utah plays at rival BYU.
Ah, but now we get to the marquee games. There are enough to make this look more like the Saturday before Thanksgiving than week two. We have broken the slate down into great expectation contests and important other contests to preview this week.
Great Expectations
Pittsburgh at Penn State: We know James Franklin. We know that James Franklin has been reminding his Nittany Lions what Pitt did to PSU last year. We know Penn State has the talent to run the table and earn a playoff spot this year, while Pittsburgh may be about the same as last year. The Panthers also knocked off Clemson, so Coach Pat Narduzzi may be the new giant killer in college football, along the lines of Jack Curtice and Al Onofrio and Warren Powers at Missouri in past times. While the Nittany Lions should be considered rather heavy favorites in this one, it will be worth watching.

TCU at Arkansas: This was a great game last year, with Arkansas winning by 3 in overtime. The Big 12 needs a signature win in a hurry, and the league will get multiple opportunities to pull off a big win. Both teams looked dominant in wins over FCS foes last week, and those games served as fine dress rehearsals for this one. TCU’s Kenny Hill could be the difference in this one if his team is to win. Arkansas looks similar to the last two years, maybe a tad stronger, so this game should be close once again.

Auburn at Clemson: Trivia question with an obvious answer: In last year’s national championship run, only one opponent held Clemson under 20 points. Obviously, since it is brought up here, the answer is Auburn. That Auburn team did not have a lot of offense, and they kept it close, losing 19-13. This Auburn team has a powerful offense, and the defense is about as good as it was last year. Meanwhile, Clemson looks to have reloaded rather than rebuilt. This game could be more like a “quarterfinal round” game in the NCAA Playoffs. If you watch just one game this week, we’d select this one by a hair over a couple others. But, hey, you are going to take care of your Saturday chores and errands really early, so you can watch every single one of these games, aren’t you? We know you. We know your kind–we see it when we look in the mirror.

Georgia at Notre Dame: For a short time Saturday, it looked like Georgia had moved from a co-favorite to win the SEC East to the outright favorite after Florida’s offense forgot the object of the game is to move the ball toward the other team’s goal. Then, quarterback Jacob Eason took a beating near the sideline and was lost for the remainder of the game with a knee sprain. He is definitely out this week, and it isn’t a sure thing he will be back by September 23, when the Bulldogs play their first SEC game against the other Bulldogs, Mississippi State. Notre Dame easily dismissed Temple last week, which means they are better this year than last. How much better is still to be determined. If they are considerably better, the Irish need to win this big home game. If they are only a little better, they will look like Florida looked against Michigan last week.

Oklahoma at Ohio State: This is the second best game of the week, but it could easily become the better of the top two games. Ohio State might beat Indiana by 7 touchdowns if they played again, but Oklahoma might also beat Indiana by “half a hundred,” as former Coach Barry Switzer wanted every week. Which team has the better secondary? Oklahoma wins here. Who has the better offensive and defensive lines? Offensive lines are about equal, but the Buckeyes have the better defensive line. The offensive skill positions for both teams are top flight. We could see this one still to be decided late in the fourth quarter, or maybe after the fourth quarter.

Stanford at USC: Okay, maybe USC overlooked Western Michigan. Maybe WMU is still just as good as last year. Or, maybe the Trojan defense isn’t quite up to championship standards just yet. Stanford didn’t let down in their game against Rice “down under,” in Sydney, Australia. The Cardinal steamrolled the Owls, who definitely are not in Western Michigan’s class. This game should be interesting. Sam Darnold should be able to pass the ball with enough efficiency to put up 250 passing yards and 24 or more points, but can the USC defense contain a Stanford offense that looked very similar to the 2010 team that had Andrew Luck and Stepfan Taylor.

Important Other Games of Interest
Western Michigan at Michigan State: The Spartans disappointed greatly last year, and their opening win over Bowling Green did nothing to prove they were back. Western Michigan gave USC all it could handle for 3 quarters, and the Broncos look to be very good again this year under new head coach Tim Lester. This game should give Spartan fans a realistic look at whether their team is coming back. A win in East Lansing could propel the Spartans to a .500 or better season and a bowl bid. A loss, followed by another to Notre Dame next week, and MSU could finish under .500 again.

Northwestern at Duke: Stanford and Vanderbilt looked terrific in their first games. Duke and Northwestern looked okay, but this could be a year where all four brainy schools become bowl eligible. The winner of this game will be 2-0 with an almost guarantee of moving to 3-0 the following week.

Iowa at Iowa St.: Both teams looked better than decent in game one, but neither set the woods on fire. However, like the previous game, the winner of this rivalry emerges at 2-0 with an almost certain 3-0 start after next week. Matt Campbell may be about ready to take the Cyclones up a notch or two in the Big 12 standings, and we will be monitoring this one closely. If Iowa wins by double digits, then the Hawkeyes move to the top contender spot to Wisconsin in the Big Ten West.

Wake Forest at Boston College: Yet another game where the winner will be 2-0, this game should be a nice defensive showcase with the possibility that defense and special teams will be the deciding factor in a 17-14 type of score (BC won 17-14 last year). BC won in Winston-Salem last year, and the Eagles should be considered a mild favorite. Wake Forest has more experience and maybe a little better depth, so this game should be very close.

Nebraska at Oregon: Willie Taggart needed two years of rebuilding at his two previous stops in the coaching profession. Western Kentucky and South Florida both performed poorly in season one of their Taggart eras. Oregon opened the 2017 season with a 77-point offensive barrage against Southern Utah. Nebraska struggled with an Arkansas State team that could win 10 games this year and will almost assuredly earn a bowl bid. This game will give us a lot more information about whether Oregon can turn the corner in Taggart’s first year in Eugene, and whether Coach Mike Riley can get Nebraska back to the high echelon in college football, or whether 7-9 wins is the new norm in Lincoln.

South Carolina at Missouri: After watching Florida and Tennessee play in week one, there is clearly a chance for South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky to move up to number two behind Georgia, and if Eason is out long in Athens, who knows? Any of the current back four could sneak up and take the East Division flag. Because it is the first conference game of the season for the SEC, the winner will take the early lead in the East. South Carolina looked mighty impressive in their win over North Carolina State, while Missouri’s offense looked fantastic against Missouri State. The Tigers’ defense made MSU’s offense look great. As we mentioned in our preseason preview, it would not shock us if Missouri became the first major college team to both score and surrender 40 points per game in a season. The Tigers should score a lot of points again this week. If the Gamecocks don’t play too conservatively, USC can put up 50 on the Tiger defense. Missouri might win if Coach Will Muschamp tries to sustain a lot of long drives and keeps the ball out of Drew Lock’s hands.

Boise State at Washington State: This will be an interesting late game in the Palouse. Washington State’s defense pitched a shutout against Montana State in game one, while the Cougar offense was a lot more potent than the 31 points scored showed. This could be the best Mike Leach-coached team ever or a close second best to his 2008 team at Texas Tech.

The PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.5 128.7 132.5 131.6
2 Ohio St. 132.6 129.5 131.8 131.3
3 Washington 128.4 124.8 129.2 127.5
4 Clemson 128.5 124.7 127.6 126.9
5 Florida St. 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
6 Penn St. 126.2 123.9 126.9 125.7
7 Oklahoma 124.0 122.0 125.0 123.7
8 Auburn 124.1 122.0 124.0 123.4
9 Oklahoma St. 121.2 119.8 122.8 121.3
10 Wisconsin 122.9 118.8 121.4 121.1
11 U S C 120.2 119.8 120.6 120.2
12 L S U 120.4 118.6 121.1 120.0
13 Stanford 120.3 117.9 119.3 119.2
14 Washington St. 119.5 116.2 118.7 118.1
15 Michigan 118.3 117.3 117.5 117.7
16 Miami 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
17 Georgia 116.4 117.7 116.5 116.9
18 Virginia Tech 116.7 116.3 117.1 116.7
19 Louisville 116.7 115.8 117.1 116.5
20 Florida 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
21 N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
22 Kansas St. 114.1 113.6 114.5 114.1
23 Colorado 114.8 112.1 112.7 113.2
24 Iowa 112.0 111.4 111.7 111.7
25 Northwestern 112.1 110.0 111.8 111.3
26 Georgia Tech 112.8 110.3 110.8 111.3
27 Kentucky 111.8 110.3 111.3 111.1
28 Tennessee 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
29 T C U 111.7 108.9 111.4 110.6
30 Notre Dame 111.2 109.3 111.3 110.6
31 Texas 109.5 110.7 109.5 109.9
32 Oregon 111.2 107.8 110.2 109.7
33 Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
34 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
35 South Florida 109.5 107.7 110.7 109.3
36 Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
37 N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
38 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
39 U C L A 108.9 107.8 108.3 108.3
40 West Virginia 107.8 108.8 107.7 108.1
41 Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
42 Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
43 Utah 105.2 107.9 105.4 106.2
44 S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
45 Maryland 105.3 107.4 105.4 106.0
46 Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
47 Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
48 Memphis 104.9 103.9 105.3 104.7
49 Nebraska 104.0 105.8 103.3 104.4
50 Minnesota 104.4 104.6 104.0 104.3
51 Indiana 104.1 104.3 104.1 104.2
52 Colo. State 104.2 102.8 104.1 103.7
53 Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
54 Central Florida 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
55 Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
56 Baylor 101.9 104.4 101.8 102.7
57 Tulsa 102.7 101.7 102.7 102.4
58 Texas Tech 102.8 102.5 101.6 102.3
59 Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
60 Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
61 Western Michigan 102.7 99.1 104.4 102.1
62 Iowa State 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
63 Arizona St. 102.3 102.3 101.0 101.9
64 BYU 100.9 99.8 101.3 100.6
65 San Diego St. 99.4 100.4 101.0 100.3
66 Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
67 Navy 99.2 100.2 99.1 99.5
68 Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
69 California 100.6 98.0 98.6 99.1
70 Appalachian St. 99.7 96.9 100.2 98.9
71 W. Kentucky 98.6 96.1 100.4 98.4
72 Boise St. 98.6 96.9 97.9 97.8
73 Michigan St. 96.0 100.3 96.6 97.6
74 Arizona 98.8 97.6 96.4 97.6
75 Wyoming 98.7 96.3 97.5 97.5
76 SMU 97.0 97.3 97.4 97.2
77 Purdue 96.1 98.4 96.9 97.1
78 Rutgers 97.0 96.6 96.3 96.6
79 Army 96.3 95.9 97.2 96.5
80 Oregon St. 96.7 96.6 95.1 96.1
81 Temple 95.7 96.4 95.8 96.0
82 Miami (O) 92.9 95.3 95.1 94.4
83 Tulane 94.1 94.5 94.5 94.4
84 Troy 93.9 94.1 93.1 93.7
85 Air Force 93.3 94.0 93.6 93.6
86 New Mexico 92.7 93.2 93.6 93.2
87 Eastern Michigan 93.0 93.0 93.1 93.0
88 U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
89 Kansas 91.1 94.5 90.4 92.0
90 Ohio U 90.9 92.6 91.8 91.8
91 Old Dominion 90.4 93.4 90.9 91.6
92 Middle Tennessee 90.2 91.1 91.1 90.8
93 Louisiana Tech 89.8 91.6 90.7 90.7
94 Arkansas St. 89.5 91.1 91.2 90.6
95 Cincinnati 89.0 91.8 90.5 90.4
96 Hawaii 89.6 91.3 89.7 90.2
97 Illinois 89.1 91.2 87.5 89.3
98 Central Michigan 88.7 88.9 89.1 88.9
99 Connecticut 86.7 89.9 87.3 88.0
100 Idaho 86.2 88.9 87.0 87.3
101 Nevada 85.4 88.8 87.6 87.2
102 Fresno St. 87.6 86.2 87.7 87.2
103 East Carolina 86.5 87.8 86.5 86.9
104 Southern Miss. 86.1 87.5 86.2 86.6
105 Utah St. 87.1 86.0 86.3 86.5
106 Northern Illinois 86.2 86.2 86.4 86.2
107 San Jose St. 86.7 85.7 86.0 86.1
108 UL-Lafayette 84.3 86.2 84.1 84.9
109 Akron 83.5 87.3 83.5 84.8
110 S. Alabama 83.6 86.6 83.8 84.7
111 U N L V 83.3 86.5 83.7 84.5
112 N. Mexico St. 85.6 82.9 84.7 84.4
113 Georgia St. 84.5 83.7 84.4 84.2
114 Marshall 83.0 84.8 84.1 84.0
115 Kent St. 83.2 84.4 84.2 83.9
116 Buffalo 81.6 84.9 83.6 83.4
117 Massachusetts 83.4 82.6 83.1 83.0
118 Florida Atlantic 81.3 84.8 82.2 82.8
119 Bowling Green 81.8 82.4 82.7 82.3
120 N. Texas 81.5 83.1 81.4 82.0
121 Florida Int’l. 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
122 Georgia Southern 81.2 82.5 80.8 81.5
123 UL-Monroe 81.8 82.1 80.3 81.4
124 Ball St. 78.9 81.0 80.3 80.1
125 Rice 77.8 78.8 78.1 78.2
126 U T E P 74.7 79.2 76.0 76.7
127 Charlotte 74.9 77.7 75.4 76.0
128 Coastal Carolina 74.8 75.7 76.6 75.7
129 Texas St. 70.4 74.4 69.1 71.3
130 UAB 64.2 69.7 66.4 66.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 0-0 2-0 109.5 107.7 110.7 109.3
Central Florida 0-0 1-0 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
Temple 0-0 0-1 95.7 96.4 95.8 96.0
Cincinnati 0-0 1-0 89.0 91.8 90.5 90.4
Connecticut 0-0 1-0 86.7 89.9 87.3 88.0
East Carolina 0-0 0-1 86.5 87.8 86.5 86.9
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 1-0 104.9 103.9 105.3 104.7
Houston 0-0 0-0 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
Tulsa 0-0 0-1 102.7 101.7 102.7 102.4
Navy 0-0 1-0 99.2 100.2 99.1 99.5
SMU 0-0 1-0 97.0 97.3 97.4 97.2
Tulane 0-0 1-0 94.1 94.5 94.5 94.4
             
AAC Averages     97.7 98.2 98.1 98.0
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 0-0 1-0 128.5 124.7 127.6 126.9
Florida St. 0-0 0-1 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
Louisville 0-0 1-0 116.7 115.8 117.1 116.5
N. Carolina St. 0-0 0-1 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 0-0 1-0 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 0-0 1-0 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 0-0 1-0 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 0-0 1-0 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
Virginia Tech 0-0 1-0 116.7 116.3 117.1 116.7
Georgia Tech 0-0 0-1 112.8 110.3 110.8 111.3
N. Carolina 0-0 0-1 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-0 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 0-0 1-0 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 0-0 1-0 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
             
ACC Averages     112.5 111.2 111.8 111.8
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 0-0 1-0 124.0 122.0 125.0 123.7
Oklahoma St. 0-0 1-0 121.2 119.8 122.8 121.3
Kansas St. 0-0 1-0 114.1 113.6 114.5 114.1
T C U 0-0 1-0 111.7 108.9 111.4 110.6
Texas 0-0 0-1 109.5 110.7 109.5 109.9
West Virginia 0-0 0-1 107.8 108.8 107.7 108.1
Baylor 0-0 0-1 101.9 104.4 101.8 102.7
Texas Tech 0-0 1-0 102.8 102.5 101.6 102.3
Iowa State 0-0 1-0 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
Kansas 0-0 1-0 91.1 94.5 90.4 92.0
             
Big 12 Averages     108.5 108.8 108.7 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 1-0 132.6 129.5 131.8 131.3
Penn St. 0-0 1-0 126.2 123.9 126.9 125.7
Michigan 0-0 1-0 118.3 117.3 117.5 117.7
Maryland 0-0 1-0 105.3 107.4 105.4 106.0
Indiana 0-1 0-1 104.1 104.3 104.1 104.2
Michigan St. 0-0 1-0 96.0 100.3 96.6 97.6
Rutgers 0-0 0-1 97.0 96.6 96.3 96.6
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 1-0 122.9 118.8 121.4 121.1
Iowa 0-0 1-0 112.0 111.4 111.7 111.7
Northwestern 0-0 1-0 112.1 110.0 111.8 111.3
Nebraska 0-0 1-0 104.0 105.8 103.3 104.4
Minnesota 0-0 1-0 104.4 104.6 104.0 104.3
Purdue 0-0 0-1 96.1 98.4 96.9 97.1
Illinois 0-0 1-0 89.1 91.2 87.5 89.3
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.5 108.2 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-0 1-0 98.6 96.1 100.4 98.4
Old Dominion 0-0 1-0 90.4 93.4 90.9 91.6
Middle Tennessee 0-0 0-1 90.2 91.1 91.1 90.8
Marshall 0-0 1-0 83.0 84.8 84.1 84.0
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-1 81.3 84.8 82.2 82.8
Florida Int’l. 0-0 0-1 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
Charlotte 0-0 0-1 74.9 77.7 75.4 76.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 0-0 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-0 89.8 91.6 90.7 90.7
Southern Miss. 0-0 0-1 86.1 87.5 86.2 86.6
N. Texas 0-0 1-0 81.5 83.1 81.4 82.0
Rice 0-0 0-1 77.8 78.8 78.1 78.2
U T E P 0-0 0-1 74.7 79.2 76.0 76.7
UAB 0-0 1-0 64.2 69.7 66.4 66.8
             
CUSA Averages     83.2 85.2 84.2 84.2
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   1-0 111.2 109.3 111.3 110.6
BYU   1-1 100.9 99.8 101.3 100.6
Army   1-0 96.3 95.9 97.2 96.5
Massachusetts   0-2 83.4 82.6 83.1 83.0
             
Indep. Averages     97.9 96.9 98.2 97.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 0-0 0-1 92.9 95.3 95.1 94.4
Ohio U 0-0 1-0 90.9 92.6 91.8 91.8
Akron 0-0 0-1 83.5 87.3 83.5 84.8
Kent St. 0-0 0-1 83.2 84.4 84.2 83.9
Buffalo 0-0 0-1 81.6 84.9 83.6 83.4
Bowling Green 0-0 0-1 81.8 82.4 82.7 82.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 0-0 0-1 102.7 99.1 104.4 102.1
Toledo 0-0 1-0 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
Eastern Michigan 0-0 1-0 93.0 93.0 93.1 93.0
Central Michigan 0-0 1-0 88.7 88.9 89.1 88.9
Northern Illinois 0-0 0-1 86.2 86.2 86.4 86.2
Ball St. 0-0 0-1 78.9 81.0 80.3 80.1
             
MAC Averages     88.6 89.5 89.6 89.2
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 1-1 104.2 102.8 104.1 103.7
Boise St. 0-0 1-0 98.6 96.9 97.9 97.8
Wyoming 0-0 0-1 98.7 96.3 97.5 97.5
Air Force 0-0 1-0 93.3 94.0 93.6 93.6
New Mexico 0-0 1-0 92.7 93.2 93.6 93.2
Utah St. 0-0 0-1 87.1 86.0 86.3 86.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-0 99.4 100.4 101.0 100.3
Hawaii 0-0 2-0 89.6 91.3 89.7 90.2
Nevada 0-0 0-1 85.4 88.8 87.6 87.2
Fresno St. 0-0 1-0 87.6 86.2 87.7 87.2
San Jose St. 0-0 1-1 86.7 85.7 86.0 86.1
U N L V 0-0 0-1 83.3 86.5 83.7 84.5
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.3 92.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 0-0 1-0 128.4 124.8 129.2 127.5
Stanford 0-0 1-0 120.3 117.9 119.3 119.2
Washington St. 0-0 1-0 119.5 116.2 118.7 118.1
Oregon 0-0 1-0 111.2 107.8 110.2 109.7
California 0-0 1-0 100.6 98.0 98.6 99.1
Oregon St. 0-0 1-1 96.7 96.6 95.1 96.1
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 0-0 1-0 120.2 119.8 120.6 120.2
Colorado 0-0 1-0 114.8 112.1 112.7 113.2
U C L A 0-0 1-0 108.9 107.8 108.3 108.3
Utah 0-0 1-0 105.2 107.9 105.4 106.2
Arizona St. 0-0 1-0 102.3 102.3 101.0 101.9
Arizona 0-0 1-0 98.8 97.6 96.4 97.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.6 109.1 109.6 109.8
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 1-0 116.4 117.7 116.5 116.9
Florida 0-0 0-1 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
Kentucky 0-0 1-0 111.8 110.3 111.3 111.1
Tennessee 0-0 1-0 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
Vanderbilt 0-0 1-0 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
S. Carolina 0-0 1-0 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
Missouri 0-0 1-0 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 0-0 1-0 133.5 128.7 132.5 131.6
Auburn 0-0 1-0 124.1 122.0 124.0 123.4
L S U 0-0 1-0 120.4 118.6 121.1 120.0
Arkansas 0-0 1-0 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
Ole Miss 0-0 1-0 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
Texas A&M 0-0 0-1 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
Mississippi St. 0-0 1-0 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
             
SEC Averages     113.1 111.7 112.5 112.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 0-1 99.7 96.9 100.2 98.9
Troy 0-0 0-1 93.9 94.1 93.1 93.7
Arkansas St. 0-0 0-1 89.5 91.1 91.2 90.6
Idaho 0-0 1-0 86.2 88.9 87.0 87.3
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-0 84.3 86.2 84.1 84.9
S. Alabama 0-0 0-1 83.6 86.6 83.8 84.7
N. Mexico St. 0-0 0-1 85.6 82.9 84.7 84.4
Georgia St. 0-0 0-1 84.5 83.7 84.4 84.2
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-1 81.2 82.5 80.8 81.5
UL-Monroe 0-0 0-1 81.8 82.1 80.3 81.4
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-0 74.8 75.7 76.6 75.7
Texas St. 0-0 1-0 70.4 74.4 69.1 71.3
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.6 85.4 84.6 84.9

Overall Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.1 111.7 112.5 112.4
2 ACC 112.5 111.2 111.8 111.8
3 PAC-12 110.6 109.1 109.6 109.8
4 BIG 12 108.5 108.8 108.7 108.7
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.5 108.2 108.4
6 AAC 97.7 98.2 98.1 98.0
7 INDEP. 97.9 96.9 98.2 97.7
8 MWC 92.2 92.3 92.4 92.3
9 MAC 88.6 89.5 89.6 89.2
10 SBC 84.6 85.4 84.6 84.9
11 CUSA 83.2 85.2 84.2 84.2

 

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Washington
5 Oklahoma
6 USC
7 Penn St.
8 LSU
9 Oklahoma St.
10 Auburn
11 Miami (Fla)
12 Wisconsin
13 Stanford
14 Michigan
15 Florida St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Kansas St.
18 Louisville
19 Washington St.
20 Georgia
21 Utah
22 Tennessee
23 Florida
24 Iowa
25 Colorado
26 South Florida
27 Pittsburgh
28 Georgia Tech
29 Nebraska
30 Western Michigan
31 Boise St.
32 Texas A&M
33 Northwestern
34 Houston
35 TCU
36 Notre Dame
37 West Virginia
38 Kentucky
39 Western Kentucky
40 Mississippi St.
41 San Diego St.
42 North Carolina
43 Toledo
44 Arkansas
45 Minnesota
46 UCLA
47 North Carolina St.
48 Memphis
49 Oregon
50 South Carolina
51 Vanderbilt
52 Ole Miss
53 California
54 Navy
55 Tulsa
56 BYU
57 Appalachian St.
58 Colorado St.
59 Air Force
60 Temple
61 Michigan St.
62 Wake Forest
63 Boston College
64 Louisiana Tech
65 Maryland
66 Troy
67 Central Florida
68 Texas Tech
69 Indiana
70 Old Dominion
71 Texas
72 Arkansas St.
73 Syracuse
74 Baylor
75 Duke
76 Missouri
77 Idaho
78 Arizona St.
79 New Mexico
80 Army
81 Wyoming
82 Arizona
83 Ohio
84 Eastern Michigan
85 Oregon St.
86 SMU
87 Iowa St.
88 Hawaii
89 UTSA
90 Northern Illinois
91 Central Michigan
92 Tulane
93 Southern Miss.
94 Middle Tennessee
95 Purdue
96 UL-Lafayette
97 Illinois
98 Virginia
99 Cincinnati
100 Georgia Southern
101 Miami (O)
102 North Texas
103 Nevada
104 San Jose St.
105 Utah St.
106 Rutgers
107 Marshall
108 Coastal Carolina
109 Kansas
110 UAB
111 Akron
112 South Alabama
113 Bowling Green
114 East Carolina
115 Connecticut
116 Fresno St.
117 Ball St.
118 UL-Monroe
119 Kent St.
120 New Mexico St.
121 UTEP
122 UNLV
123 Georgia St.
124 Charlotte
125 Florida Int’l.
126 Rice
127 Buffalo
128 Massachusetts
129 Florida Atlantic
130 Texas St.

Note: Bowl Projections will resume in October

August 31, 2017

Money Line Parlay Picks for August 31-September 4, 2017

If you have been following the PiRate Ratings for a few years, you will know that we have issued selections on games every year since this page was created. Over the course of many football seasons, our money line parlay selections have been the most popular feature we have published. There is good reason for this–they have been successful. Last year, our selections returned better than 8% on investment, which was so-so, but it was still a winning season, making it three successful seasons in a row.
Regular readers here may also remember that our money line parlay selections have tended to perform their best in October and November, so keep that in mind if you use our free advice as a wagering tool. You should know this (and if you are a regular you have read this many times in this feature–we NEVER wager on sports contests. This is strictly an exercise in mathematical fun, which makes it so much easier for us to publish these parlays.

The true opening week of the football season does not give us NFL regular season games, so we have a reduced amount of games available in our menu. Therefore, we are issuing just one parlay for this week.

This parlay gives us a calculated odd of +138, so for every $100 of imaginary bank account we invest, if this parlay wins we will receive $238 back ($138 + the $100 we invested). Of course if this play loses, then we lose the $100 of imaginary investment.
Without further adieu, here is our selection for Labor Day Weekend.

1. Money Line Parlay at +138
Ohio State over Indiana
Nebraska over Arkansas St.
North Carolina over California
Georgia over Appalachian St.
Alabama over Florida St.

If you are interested in knowing how we calculate the odds of our parlays, we use offshore books only in finding the best overall odds for the games we wish to play. Since we do not work for these sports books, we will not give them free advertising and name names. However, if you look at offshore money line odds online at any of numerous sites, it should not be that difficult to find one particular site with the most favorable odds. Most sites have a money line parlay calculator, and if not, you can find this at many different sites. Parlay odds can be figured by doing some math, but you can save a lot of time by using these calculators.

We always round down to the nearest whole dollar when calculating the payout odds of the parlays. In actuality, today’s parlay should return $238.46 for every $100 invested (or $138.46 profit) rather than $238.

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