The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 16-20, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Eastern MichiganWestern Michigan4.53.43.6
Ohio UToledo-7.9-6.7-6.2
Miami (O)Bowling Green26.324.625.8
Ball St.Central Michigan0.30.9-0.7
BuffaloNorthern Illinois1.61.82.0
DukeLouisville-19.5-19.2-22.0
Louisiana TechSouthern Miss.12.212.011.4
HoustonMemphis14.613.514.0
Washington St.Arizona13.414.213.5
NevadaAir Force3.84.53.1
UNLVSan Diego St.-12.4-12.6-12.0
PittsburghVirginia8.98.79.4
CincinnatiSMU15.514.715.7
ArmyMassachusetts39.039.541.5
Central FloridaConnecticut34.032.437.6
Miami (Fla.)Virginia Tech9.19.09.6
North Carolina St.Syracuse16.215.816.4
AkronKent St.-9.9-12.2-11.4
Ohio St.Michigan St.22.622.523.7
Coastal CarolinaTexas St.28.728.829.9
MarylandMichigan-11.0-13.2-14.0
MissouriFlorida-7.0-8.0-8.3
West VirginiaTexas3.63.72.8
TennesseeSouth Alabama21.421.522.6
Boston CollegeFlorida St.1.41.31.1
LibertyLouisiana-2.4-0.6-1.3
Northwestern (Wrig)Purdue-11.3-11.0-13.0
IndianaMinnesota-6.6-7.7-8.3
Penn St.Rutgers20.018.621.4
ClemsonWake Forest4.54.75.0
WisconsinNebraska11.811.412.6
Western KentuckyFlorida Atlantic7.88.49.7
IowaIllinois18.017.217.9
Boise St.New Mexico28.128.430.4
UtahOregon6.95.84.8
ColoradoWashington-5.4-6.8-7.0
Notre DameGeorgia Tech20.221.122.0
StanfordCalifornia0.6-2.0-2.2
Oregon St.Arizona St.1.00.70.3
USCUCLA-0.3-0.8-0.4
NavyEast Carolina-7.2-7.2-7.9
South CarolinaAuburn-10.9-10.7-12.1
TulsaTemple23.722.924.0
TroyAppalachian St.-11.0-10.8-12.1
Ole MissVanderbilt39.139.440.0
Middle TennesseeOld Dominion11.310.611.3
AlabamaArkansas21.120.522.1
LSULouisiana-Monroe33.234.135.2
TulaneSouth Florida6.55.86.8
OklahomaIowa St.4.74.54.4
TCUKansas24.825.628.2
KentuckyNew Mexico St.41.341.743.0
CharlotteMarshall-15.9-15.2-15.6
UTSAUAB6.06.46.1
Texas TechOklahoma St.-14.4-14.1-14.8
Kansas St.Baylor-0.7-0.6-1.0
Georgia St.Arkansas St.17.416.618.2
UTEPRice6.47.55.9
Georgia SouthernBYU-20.1-19.6-20.6
Florida Int’l.North Texas-10.2-10.4-10.2
Utah St.Wyoming7.57.96.8
HawaiiColorado St.0.80.4-0.1

The Northwestern and Purdue game will be played at Wrigley Field.

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
GeorgiaCharleston Southern48.4
Texas A&MPrairie View36.4
Mississippi St.Tennessee St.36.4
North CarolinaWofford33.2

Teams Not Playing This Week

Fresno St.
San Jose St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia136.0
2Alabama131.6
3Ohio St.130.3
4Oklahoma St.121.2
5Oklahoma120.2
6Texas A&M119.6
7Iowa St.118.6
8Wisconsin118.5
9Ole Miss117.5
10Notre Dame117.3
11Cincinnati117.2
12Utah117.0
13Michigan116.3
14Auburn115.0
15Penn St.115.0
16Baylor114.7
17Oregon114.2
18Clemson113.5
19Arkansas113.3
20Iowa113.0
21Mississippi St.112.5
22NC State112.2
23Wake Forest111.8
24Arizona St.111.6
25L S U111.5
26Kansas St.110.9
27Florida110.4
28Michigan St.110.4
29North Carolina110.4
30U C L A110.1
31Pittsburgh110.0
32Kentucky110.0
33Tennessee109.8
34BYU109.7
35Nebraska109.5
36West Virginia109.3
37Oregon St.109.2
38Texas108.9
39Purdue108.8
40Miami (Fla.)108.5
41U S C108.1
42Louisiana108.0
43Minnesota107.9
44Coastal Carolina107.7
45Louisville106.8
46Washington106.7
47Boise St.106.6
48Appalachian St.106.6
49Houston105.7
50T C U105.7
51SMU104.9
52Florida St.104.7
53Washington St.104.6
54Virginia104.0
55Texas Tech103.8
56Liberty103.6
57Boston College102.9
58Nevada102.5
59Virginia Tech102.3
60California101.8
61Air Force101.7
62San Diego St.101.5
63Army101.4
64U T S A101.1
65Fresno St.101.1
66South Carolina100.8
67East Carolina100.6
68Maryland100.5
69UCF99.8
70Missouri99.7
71Georgia Tech99.3
72Syracuse99.1
73Stanford99.1
74Miami (Ohio)98.5
75Toledo98.5
76Illinois98.3
77U A B97.9
78Indiana97.9
79Georgia St.97.6
80Central Michigan97.5
81Colorado97.3
82Rutgers97.0
83Marshall96.8
84Utah St.96.7
85Tulsa96.0
86Western Kentucky96.0
87Northwestern95.6
88Ball St.95.2
89Memphis94.7
90Arizona93.9
91Eastern Michigan93.6
92Tulane93.2
93Troy92.7
94Colorado St.92.7
95Wyoming92.3
96Western Michigan91.8
97South Alabama91.0
98San Jose St.90.7
99Middle Tennessee90.5
100Northern Illinois90.4
101Florida Atlantic90.3
102Navy90.2
103Kent St.90.0
104Buffalo89.7
105Ohio89.5
106USF89.3
107Hawaii89.0
108Georgia Southern86.6
109U N L V86.6
110U T E P84.3
111Duke84.1
112Louisiana Tech83.5
113North Texas83.1
114Arkansas St.82.7
115Kansas82.5
116Old Dominion81.9
117Texas St.81.5
118Vanderbilt81.0
119New Mexico80.6
120Rice80.2
121UL-Monroe79.3
122Charlotte78.7
123Akron76.8
124Temple75.5
125Bowling Green74.9
126Southern Miss.74.2
127New Mexico St.71.0
128Florida Int’l.70.4
129Connecticut68.1
130UMass64.4

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive (forward thinking) and not rankings based on what teams have done to date.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati117.1116.4118.1117.2
Houston105.7105.0106.4105.7
SMU104.6104.7105.4104.9
East Carolina100.3100.1101.5100.6
UCF99.898.6101.199.8
Tulsa96.095.996.296.0
Memphis94.194.595.494.7
Tulane93.392.194.193.2
Navy90.189.990.790.2
USF89.388.989.889.3
Temple75.376.075.275.5

AAC Averages96.996.697.697.0


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson113.2113.1114.2113.5
NC State112.1111.9112.6112.2
Wake Forest111.7111.4112.2111.8
Louisville106.4106.4107.7106.8
Florida St.104.4104.6105.0104.7
Boston College102.8102.9103.1102.9
Syracuse99.099.199.299.1

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.9109.9111.3110.4
Pittsburgh109.7110.4110.1110.0
Miami (Fla.)108.9108.1108.6108.5
Virginia103.8104.6103.7104.0
Virginia Tech102.8102.1102.0102.3
Georgia Tech99.399.399.299.3
Duke84.484.883.284.1

ACC Averages104.9104.9105.2105.0


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.121.5121.2121.0121.2
Oklahoma121.1119.4120.0120.2
Iowa St.119.3117.9118.6118.6
Baylor115.2114.5114.4114.7
Kansas St.111.4110.9110.4110.9
West Virginia110.6109.0108.3109.3
Texas110.0108.2108.6108.9
T C U106.4105.2105.4105.7
Texas Tech104.1104.1103.2103.8
Kansas84.682.680.382.5

Big 12 Averages110.4109.3109.0109.6


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.129.8129.8131.3130.3
Michigan115.5116.4116.9116.3
Penn St.114.1114.6116.1115.0
Michigan St.110.2110.3110.6110.4
Maryland101.4100.299.9100.5
Indiana97.997.698.097.9
Rutgers96.198.096.797.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin117.9117.8119.6118.5
Iowa112.9112.5113.7113.0
Nebraska109.2109.4110.0109.5
Purdue108.3108.2110.0108.8
Minnesota107.1107.8108.8107.9
Illinois97.998.398.898.3
Northwestern95.595.795.595.6

Big Ten Averages108.1108.4109.0108.5


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.596.797.296.8
Western Kentucky94.796.396.996.0
Middle Tennessee90.090.391.190.5
Florida Atlantic89.990.890.290.3
Old Dominion81.282.282.381.9
Charlotte78.178.979.078.7
Florida Int’l.70.270.470.570.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A100.7101.4101.3101.1
U A B97.798.098.197.9
U T E P84.185.283.584.3
Louisiana Tech83.884.182.783.5
North Texas82.983.383.283.1
Rice80.280.280.280.2
Southern Miss.74.174.573.874.2

CUSA Averages86.086.686.486.3


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame116.5117.3118.2117.3
BYU109.8109.4110.0109.7
Liberty103.2103.7103.9103.6
Army101.5101.4101.2101.4
New Mexico St.71.371.969.871.0
Connecticut68.769.266.568.1
UMass65.564.962.864.4

Indep. Averages90.991.190.390.8


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.898.397.498.5
Kent St.89.891.089.390.0
Buffalo90.589.589.189.7
Ohio89.189.989.689.5
Akron77.976.875.976.8
Bowling Green75.575.773.574.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo99.198.597.898.5
Central Michigan98.597.296.997.5
Ball St.96.295.693.795.2
Eastern Michigan94.893.692.493.6
Western Michigan92.292.290.891.8
Northern Illinois91.390.289.690.4

MAC Averages91.290.789.790.5


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.106.2106.4107.1106.6
Air Force101.3101.6102.2101.7
Utah St.96.397.296.796.7
Colorado St.92.792.692.792.7
Wyoming91.892.392.992.3
New Mexico81.181.079.780.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Nevada102.1103.1102.3102.5
San Diego St.101.7101.5101.3101.5
Fresno St.100.2101.2101.9101.1
San Jose St.91.091.289.990.7
Hawaii89.489.088.689.0
U N L V86.886.486.886.6

MWC Averages95.095.395.295.2


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon113.1114.4115.2114.2
Oregon St.108.9109.4109.4109.2
Washington106.1107.1107.0106.7
Washington St.104.2105.1104.6104.6
California100.0103.0102.4101.8
Stanford99.099.598.799.1

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah117.0117.1117.0117.0
Arizona St.111.0111.7112.1111.6
U C L A109.8110.1110.3110.1
U S C108.0107.8108.4108.1
Colorado97.697.496.997.3
Arizona93.793.994.193.9
Pac-12 Averages105.7106.4106.3106.1


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia135.5135.9136.8136.0
Florida109.9111.0110.4110.4
Kentucky109.6110.6109.8110.0
Tennessee109.7109.6110.1109.8
South Carolina101.3100.9100.2100.8
Missouri99.9100.099.199.7
Vanderbilt81.381.080.681.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.6130.9132.2131.6
Texas A&M119.3119.8119.6119.6
Ole Miss117.4117.4117.6117.5
Auburn115.2114.6115.3115.0
Arkansas113.4113.4113.1113.3
Mississippi St.112.2112.7112.7112.5
L S U111.0111.7111.7111.5

SEC Averages112.0112.1112.1112.1


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina108.3106.7107.9107.7
Appalachian St.106.1106.0107.6106.6
Georgia St.97.897.197.897.6
Troy92.692.793.092.7
Georgia Southern86.786.986.486.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana108.6107.3108.3108.0
South Alabama91.391.190.591.0
Arkansas St.82.983.082.182.7
Texas St.82.680.981.181.5
UL-Monroe79.879.678.579.3

Sun Averages93.793.193.393.4

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.1
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.5
4Pac-12106.1
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.2
8Sun Belt93.4
9Independents90.8
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.3

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: This is the first week where we do not project 82 teams to have six or more wins. This week, we project two 5-7 teams to receive bowl bids, both from the Pac-12–Washington and California.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUABNorthern Illinois
CureLibertyAppalachian St.
BocaMiddle TennesseeMiami (O)
New MexicoUTEPUtah St.
IndependenceBYUWestern Kentucky
Lending TreeCentral MichiganSan Jose St.
L. A.San Diego St.USC
New OrleansFlorida AtlanticLouisiana
Myrtle BeachWest VirginiaCoastal Carolina
Famous Idaho PotatoKent St.Boise St.
FriscoHoustonUTSA
Armed ForcesArmyMarshall
GasparillaCaliforniaFlorida
HawaiiEast CarolinaNevada
CamelliaToledoGeorgia St.
Quick LaneEastern MichiganWyoming
MilitaryVirginiaSMU
BirminghamMemphisBall St.
First ResponderWashingtonFresno St.
LibertyIowa St.Missouri
HolidayNorth CarolinaUCLA
Guaranteed RateRutgersTexas Tech
FenwayBoston CollegeCentral Florida
PinstripeNorth Carolina St.Minnesota
Cheez-ItBaylorWake Forest
AlamoOklahomaArizona St.
Duke’s MayoMiami (Fla.)Auburn
Music CityPenn St.Tennessee
Las VegasPurdueWashington St.
Tax Slayer GatorClemsonMississippi St.
Tony The Tiger SunLouisvilleOregon St.
ArizonaWestern MichiganAir Force
CitrusIowaTexas A&M
OutbackWisconsinKentucky
TexasKansas St.Arkansas
PeachCincinnatiMichigan St.
FiestaNotre DamePittsburgh
RoseMichiganUtah
SugarOle MissOklahoma St.
CottonOregonOhio St.
OrangeGeorgiaAlabama
ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

Where Cincinnati Rates Historically Among Other Unbeatens

With Cincinnati sitting at 10-0 and just on the outside, looking in on a potential College Football Playoff invitation, where do the Bearcats fit in the historical picture of Division 1 teams that won all their games but were not members of a major conference or top independent?

This may be putting the cart before the horse, because CU must win three more games against three better than average teams to get to 13-0 and have a chance to be in the Final Four.  A home game this week against SMU could be tricky.  A regular season finale at East Carolina is going to be somewhat trickier, as the Pirates have been sneaky good for two months.  But, even if Cinti wins those two games, they will have to beat a Houston team that has looked better than the Bearcats in the last month.

Here is a look at all the Division 1 teams with perfect records between 1960 and 2000.  I chose these years as a basis for comparing the Bearcats because the sample size was extremely large.

1960–New Mexico State and Yale

Both teams finished in the national top 20, but neither team was at the level of 2021 Cincinnati.  While the Ivy League was still Division 1 up until the late 1970’s, by 1960, it was about on par with Conference USA today and maybe not that strong.  Yale beat U Conn and Colgate out of conference.  NMSU was much better and deserving of their 11-0 season that included a win in the Sun Bowl.  With future NFL QB Charley Johnson running the offense, the Aggies were as good as UTSA and Louisiana today, but not Cincinnati.

1961–Rutgers

This is one of the weakest undefeated D1 teams in modern times.  Rutgers went 9-0 with five wins over small college opponents and four wins over Ivy League opponents.  

1962–Dartmouth

Coach Bob Blackman was a defensive wizard, and he built Dartmouth into a small power.  This was his first of three 9-0 teams.  Dartmouth gave up just 9 points in their first seven games, but this team was never ranked and not on Cincinnati’s level.  That would change.

1964–Princeton

The 9-0 Tigers were one of the last teams to run a single wing offense, and Princeton won a lot of close games to win the Ivy.  PU was never ranked, and this Tiger team was little better than the 1961 Rutgers team.

1965–Dartmouth

This Dartmouth team was somewhat better than the 1962 team with a more consistent running game that controlled the clock.  Eight of nine wins were never in doubt, but the DC was not on Cincinnati’s level this season.  We’re not through with this team though.

1969–San Diego State, Toledo

The Aztecs became classified as a major college team after years of being a dynasty small college team.  Coach Don Coryell was in the middle of sending quarterbacks to the NFL, and in Dennis Shaw, he may have had the best passer in the nation, as SDSU went 11-0, while averaging 45 points per game.  This team did not earn a ranking in the polls, and their schedule was not worthy of that honor.  Not only was this team not on par with 2021 Cincinnati, the 2021 SDSU team would have beaten the 1969 team.

Toledo began a three-year string from 1969 to 1971 where the Rockets won every game.  This was not their best in the three-year run, but they did briefly crack the AP Poll.

1970–Arizona State, Toledo, Dartmouth

Now, we have some interesting undefeated teams.  Arizona State finished #6 in the final polls with an 11-0 record that included wins over Kansas State, Washington State, Utah, and North Carolina in the Peach Bowl.  The Sun Devils might have been a tad better than this Cincinnati team.  ASU was loaded with future NFL players.

Toledo’s 1970 team finished #12 in the final poll, but this Rockets team was considerably underrated in 1970.  Toledo should have been a Top 10 team that year.  Their schedule lacked a power team, which is why they finished #12, but they outgained opponents by close to 200 yards a game when 300 yards was considered an offensive outburst.  They won the Tangerine Bowl by four touchdowns.  I believe this Toledo team was about as good as this year’s Cincinnati.

Now, for Dartmouth.  This was Bob Blackman’s and the Ivy League’s best team post World War II.  Dartmouth became the last Ivy League team to finish ranked in the national polls at a way underrated #14.  This team went 9-0, finishing in the top 10 nationally in both offense and defense, as they outgained opponents by close to 250 yards per game.  They shut out six of their nine opponents, including their final four games.  Football experts that saw this team play say they would have defeated Penn State that year, and DC was awarded the Lambert Trophy as the best team in the East.  This team might have been strong enough to win a New Year’s Bowl game that year.  

1971–Toledo

The third year run of undefeated Rocket teams, they finished #14 in the final polls, but this team was not as good as the 1970 team.  Interestingly, this Toledo team became one of just two major college teams to post back-to-back perfect seasons with different coaches.  Michigan was the other in 1947 and 1948.

1973–Miami of Ohio

What makes 1973 a bit different from the previous years mentioned in this section is that half of the MAC teams were ranked in the top 20 at some point in 1973.  Miami not only beat the other ranked MAC teams, they dominated Florida in the Tangerine Bowl, totally stopping a Gators’ offense that had defeated rival Florida State 49-0 in the regular season finale.  Miami allowed less than 7 points per game and less than 200 total yards per game.  In a year where six major conference teams did not lose a regular season game, this Miami team got lost in the mix, but I would have favored them over this year’s Cincinnati team.

1975–Arizona State, Arkansas State

This Sun Devils team was not as good as the 1970 team, but they finished #2 in the final rankings thanks to come-from-behind wins over ranked Arizona and Nebraska teams, the Cornhusker upset coming in the Fiesta Bowl.  It also helped that there were no other undefeated teams in Division 1 that year, as 11-1 Oklahoma won the national championship after Ohio State lost the Rose Bowl.  2021 Cincinnati probably would beat this ASU team.

Arkansas State went 11-0 with a powerful wishbone offense.  Included in the 11 wins were victories over 7-4 Memphis and 6-5 Cincinnati, but this team was about as strong as Louisiana and Appalachian State are today.  

1976–Rutgers

1976 was a great year for Scarlet Knight fans.  The football team went 11-0 following a basketball team that went undefeated until the Final Four, where they lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in the nation semifinals.  This 11-0 football team finished #17 in the polls, but they were not on the level of this year’s Cincinnati.  Their best win was over a Colgate team that went 8-2, but it was a controversial win with questionable officiating calls.

1984–BYU

Did BYU deserve to win the 1984 National Championship?  Were they better than this year’s Cincinnati team?  I don’t think so.  This wasn’t even the best BYU team in this era, just the one that was fortunate to go 13-0 against a weak schedule and win a bowl game over the weakest Michigan team in the Bo Schembechler era.  BYU’s key wins were against a 3-7-1 Pitt team and a 5-6 Baylor team.  In the Fiesta Bowl against 6-5 Michigan, BYU had to rally from behind to win by seven.  Quarterback Robbie Bosco continuing to play while injured made for a great copy, but this year’s BYU team might beat that one.  They were not deserving of the title that year, as Washington was the real best team in 1984.

1998–Tulane

The Green Wave finished #7 in the final polls with a dominant offense and average defense.  TU defeated BYU in the Liberty Bowl but defeated no ranked teams.  The 1998 Green Wave was not in this year’s Cincinnati’s class.

1999–Marshall

The Thundering Herd played in the MAC for a few years, and in 1999, they went 13-0 and finished 10th in the final polls behind future NFL QB Chad Pennington.  All the Herd could manage to earn was a Motor City Bowl game, where they beat BYU.  While Marshall defeated Clemson in the regular season, that CU team went just 6-6 and fired their coach.

October 24, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 28-30, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Coastal CarolinaTroy22.920.822.8
East CarolinaSouth Florida12.112.013.3
TulsaNavy9.910.39.4
NevadaUNLV17.019.218.1
WisconsinIowa-2.0-1.6-1.8
BuffaloBowling Green24.923.925.7
Wake ForestDuke24.523.125.8
Michigan St.Michigan-2.3-3.3-3.6
North Carolina St.Louisville10.29.88.7
SyracuseBoston College1.11.11.0
Georgia SouthernGeorgia St.-6.4-5.5-6.4
West VirginiaIowa St.-5.6-5.9-7.7
MarylandIndiana3.52.51.2
Florida AtlanticUTEP13.814.215.5
PittsburghMiami (Fla.)2.84.63.5
IllinoisRutgers3.82.34.2
NorthwesternMinnesota-6.9-7.4-9.0
TempleCentral Florida-16.2-14.2-17.2
Georgia TechVirginia Tech0.01.31.4
ClemsonFlorida St.12.312.113.3
LibertyMassachusetts33.834.937.3
RiceNorth Texas3.43.43.5
Utah St.Hawaii1.42.52.0
BYUVirginia4.22.54.1
UtahUCLA7.16.66.2
Arizona St.Washington St.15.515.115.7
CaliforniaOregon St.-8.5-4.9-6.2
USCArizona24.725.025.9
San Jose St.Wyoming7.57.05.1
OregonColorado15.416.818.3
MarshallFlorida Int’l.20.119.419.5
Oklahoma St.Kansas32.935.037.4
Old DominionLouisiana Tech-8.7-8.3-6.8
LouisianaTexas St.26.426.727.7
Middle TennesseeSouthern Miss.12.812.113.8
NebraskaPurdue6.97.65.8
VanderbiltMissouri-18.6-19.6-19.2
Kansas St.TCU-0.80.3-0.7
Mississippi St.Kentucky-0.6-2.2-1.9
OklahomaTexas Tech21.920.021.8
Ohio St.Penn St.19.919.319.3
HoustonSMU2.81.32.2
BaylorTexas-2.4-1.2-2.4
AuburnOle Miss3.32.73.3
Florida (N)Georgia-17.7-16.7-18.5
TulaneCincinnati-23.8-24.7-25.3
Appalachian St.Louisiana-Monroe26.225.529.0
South AlabamaArkansas St.8.98.48.5
Western KentuckyCharlotte10.911.410.9
Colorado St.Boise St.-6.4-5.9-6.6
Notre DameNorth Carolina7.48.07.3
StanfordWashington1.71.30.5
San Diego St.Fresno St.5.13.22.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia134.8
2Alabama131.6
3Ohio St.130.9
4Oklahoma121.2
5Iowa St.120.7
6Cincinnati120.2
7Texas A&M118.6
8Auburn117.4
9Ole Miss117.2
10Florida117.1
11Iowa116.2
12Texas116.1
13Michigan114.9
14Notre Dame114.8
15Penn St.114.4
16Clemson114.2
17Arizona St.114.0
18Utah113.6
19Oklahoma St.113.5
20Arkansas113.0
21Kentucky112.9
22Oregon112.4
23Baylor112.1
24U S C111.6
25Wisconsin111.4
26Oregon St.111.3
27West Virginia111.3
28NC State111.1
29Coastal Carolina110.8
30T C U110.6
31Pittsburgh110.4
32Michigan St.110.3
33North Carolina110.3
34L S U110.2
35Nebraska110.0
36Wake Forest110.0
37U C L A109.9
38Miami (Fla.)109.8
39Tennessee108.8
40Mississippi St.108.4
41Minnesota108.1
42BYU107.6
43Louisiana107.3
44Kansas St.107.2
45Virginia107.0
46Washington106.7
47Purdue106.2
48Stanford104.9
49Florida St.104.6
50Louisville104.5
51SMU104.4
52Appalachian St.104.2
53Houston104.0
54Boise St.103.6
55Texas Tech103.0
56San Diego St.102.9
57Virginia Tech102.4
58Indiana102.4
59Fresno St.102.2
60Liberty101.8
61California101.8
62Maryland101.8
63Nevada101.7
64Boston College101.7
65Washington St.101.6
66U T S A101.6
67Air Force101.1
68Missouri100.4
69Georgia Tech100.4
70Army100.1
71Syracuse99.8
72UCF99.5
73East Carolina98.6
74Colorado98.6
75Northwestern97.8
76Miami (Ohio)97.8
77Toledo97.5
78South Carolina97.1
79Illinois96.6
80U A B96.3
81Ball St.96.3
82Rutgers96.2
83Tulsa95.5
84Buffalo95.4
85Florida Atlantic95.0
86Colorado St.94.8
87Eastern Michigan94.6
88Western Michigan94.5
89Central Michigan94.3
90Marshall94.2
91San Jose St.94.0
92Georgia St.93.8
93Memphis93.3
94Tulane93.1
95Hawaii92.8
96Troy91.7
97Kent St.91.3
98South Alabama90.9
99Utah St.90.7
100Wyoming90.5
101Northern Illinois89.8
102Western Kentucky89.7
103Arizona89.3
104USF89.1
105Navy88.7
106Middle Tennessee88.6
107Duke87.5
108Ohio86.3
109Georgia Southern86.2
110Louisiana Tech85.2
111U N L V85.1
112Arkansas St.84.8
113U T E P83.5
114Texas St.83.4
115New Mexico82.4
116Rice81.8
117Kansas81.4
118Charlotte81.1
119Temple81.1
120North Texas80.3
121UL-Monroe80.3
122Vanderbilt79.2
123Southern Miss.78.2
124Florida Int’l.77.5
125Old Dominion75.2
126Akron74.6
127Bowling Green73.6
128New Mexico St.72.0
129UMass69.0
130Connecticut68.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati119.7119.3121.7120.2
SMU104.0104.4104.9104.4
Houston104.3103.2104.6104.0
UCF99.398.3100.999.5
East Carolina98.397.899.698.6
Tulsa95.695.695.495.5
Memphis92.993.293.893.3
Tulane93.492.093.893.1
USF89.288.889.489.1
Navy88.788.389.188.7
Temple80.681.681.181.1

AAC Averages96.996.697.797.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson113.7113.7115.0114.2
NC State111.2110.8111.2111.1
Wake Forest110.0109.5110.4110.0
Florida St.104.4104.6104.7104.6
Louisville104.0103.9105.5104.5
Boston College101.6101.7101.8101.7
Syracuse99.799.999.899.8

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh110.0110.8110.6110.4
North Carolina109.7109.8111.3110.3
Miami (Fla.)110.2109.2110.1109.8
Virginia106.6107.7106.7107.0
Virginia Tech103.2102.1102.0102.4
Georgia Tech100.2100.5100.4100.4
Duke87.588.486.687.5

ACC Averages105.1105.2105.4105.3
Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma122.2120.3121.1121.2
Iowa St.121.2119.8120.9120.7
Texas117.0115.3116.0116.1
Oklahoma St.113.7113.5113.3113.5
Baylor112.6112.1111.6112.1
West Virginia112.7111.0110.2111.3
T C U111.4110.0110.4110.6
Kansas St.107.6107.3106.7107.2
Texas Tech103.2103.4102.3103.0
Kansas83.881.578.981.4

Big 12 Averages110.5109.4109.1109.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.130.3130.3132.0130.9
Michigan114.1115.1115.4114.9
Penn St.113.4114.0115.7114.4
Michigan St.110.3110.3110.4110.3
Indiana102.3102.0102.7102.4
Maryland102.8101.5100.9101.8
Rutgers95.497.295.896.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa115.9115.5117.2116.2
Wisconsin110.9110.8112.3111.4
Nebraska109.6110.0110.3110.0
Minnesota107.2108.0109.1108.1
Purdue105.7105.4107.5106.2
Northwestern97.898.197.697.8
Illinois96.296.597.196.6

Big Ten Averages108.0108.2108.9108.4
Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Florida Atlantic94.295.695.295.0
Marshall94.194.094.694.2
Western Kentucky88.690.290.389.7
Middle Tennessee88.288.389.288.6
Charlotte80.281.281.981.1
Florida Int’l.77.077.678.077.5
Old Dominion74.875.575.475.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A101.2101.9101.7101.6
U A B96.296.496.496.3
Louisiana Tech85.585.884.285.2
U T E P83.484.482.683.5
Rice81.881.881.881.8
North Texas80.480.480.280.3
Southern Miss.77.978.677.978.2

CUSA Averages86.086.586.486.3
FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame114.1114.7115.6114.8
BYU107.8107.2107.8107.6
Liberty101.4101.9102.0101.8
Army100.2100.199.9100.1
New Mexico St.72.373.070.872.0
UMass70.169.567.369.0
Connecticut68.969.466.768.3

Indep. Averages90.790.890.090.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.397.696.697.8
Buffalo96.195.295.095.4
Kent St.91.092.390.791.3
Ohio85.986.886.386.3
Akron76.074.573.574.6
Bowling Green74.174.372.373.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo98.097.696.997.5
Ball St.97.196.894.996.3
Eastern Michigan96.094.693.394.6
Western Michigan94.695.093.794.5
Central Michigan95.494.093.594.3
Northern Illinois90.989.589.089.8

MAC Averages91.290.789.690.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.4103.2104.0103.6
Air Force100.8101.0101.6101.1
Colorado St.94.694.895.094.8
Utah St.90.491.290.690.7
Wyoming90.190.590.990.5
New Mexico82.882.981.482.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.103.1102.7102.8102.9
Fresno St.101.1102.5103.1102.2
Nevada101.0102.4101.7101.7
San Jose St.94.594.593.094.0
Hawaii93.092.792.592.8
U N L V85.584.785.285.1
MWC Averages95.095.395.195.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.4112.5113.4112.4
Oregon St.111.1111.2111.6111.3
Washington106.0107.1107.1106.7
Stanford104.6105.4104.6104.9
California99.7103.3102.4101.8
Washington St.101.1102.1101.6101.6

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Arizona St.113.6114.2114.3114.0
Utah113.6113.6113.5113.6
U S C111.3111.2112.1111.6
U C L A109.5110.0110.2109.9
Colorado98.998.798.198.6
Arizona89.689.289.289.3

Pac-12 Averages105.9106.5106.5106.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia134.3134.5135.6134.8
Florida116.5117.8117.1117.1
Kentucky112.0113.7113.1112.9
Tennessee108.8108.5109.0108.8
Missouri100.5100.899.8100.4
South Carolina97.697.296.697.1
Vanderbilt79.979.278.679.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.6130.9132.4131.6
Texas A&M118.2118.9118.6118.6
Auburn117.5116.8117.8117.4
Ole Miss117.1117.1117.4117.2
Arkansas113.2113.1112.7113.0
L S U109.7110.5110.5110.2
Mississippi St.108.4108.5108.2108.4

SEC Averages111.8112.0112.0111.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina111.4109.6111.4110.8
Appalachian St.103.8103.3105.4104.2
Georgia St.94.293.593.893.8
Troy91.691.891.791.7
Georgia Southern86.386.685.986.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana107.9106.4107.7107.3
South Alabama91.291.190.390.9
Arkansas St.84.985.284.384.8
Texas St.84.582.783.083.4
UL-Monroe80.680.879.480.3

Sun Averages93.693.193.393.3

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.9
2Big 12109.7
3Big Ten108.4
4Pac-12106.3
5Atlantic Coast105.3
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.1
8Sun Belt93.3
9Independents90.5
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.3

Playoff and Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasMarshallToledo
CureSMUCoastal Carolina
BocaLouisiana TechAir Force
New MexicoUTEPNorthern Illinois
IndependenceBYUFlorida Atlantic
Lending TreeWestern MichiganAppalachian St.
L. A.San Diego St.UCLA
New OrleansUTSALouisiana
Myrtle BeachCentral MichiganCharlotte
Famous Idaho PotatoEastern MichiganBoise St.
FriscoNevadaUL-Monroe
Armed ForcesArmyUAB
GasparillaMiddle TennesseeBuffalo
HawaiiCentral FloridaFresno St.
CamelliaKent St.Troy
Quick LaneBall St.Wyoming
MilitaryNorth CarolinaTulsa
BirminghamMemphisLiberty
First ResponderWestern KentuckyTexas Tech
LibertyTexasLSU
HolidayMiami (Fla.)USC
Guaranteed RatePurdueWest Virginia
FenwayHoustonBoston College
PinstripeNorth Carolina St.Penn St.
Cheez-ItWake ForestIowa St.
AlamoBaylorArizona St.
Duke’s MayoClemsonTennessee
Music CityMarylandArkansas
Las VegasWisconsinOregon St.
Tax Slayer GatorVirginiaFlorida
Tony The Tiger SunLouisvilleUtah
ArizonaMiami (O)Utah St.
CitrusIowaOle Miss
OutbackMinnesotaTexas A&M
TexasKansas St.Auburn
PeachPittsburghKentucky
FiestaNotre DameMichigan
RoseOregonMichigan St.
SugarOklahoma St.Alabama
CottonOklahomaOhio St.
OrangeGeorgiaCincinnati
ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

NCAA Strikes Out On New Overtime Rule

Did you watch the Penn State-Illinois game Saturday?  It was tied 10-10 after 60 minutes of excellent defensive football.  The Illini shut down the Penn State passing game while controlling the clock by running and running and more running.

Both teams scored field goals in the first two overtimes to make the score 16-16.  The new overtime rule states that starting with the third overtime, both teams get a two-point conversion attempt.  If the score remains tied, then successive two-point conversion attempts are taken until one team scores and the other team does not.

Additionally, after the first overtime, there are no more coin flips.  The teams rotate the choice.  And, what happens is the home team always wants to play on the side of the field where the student body cheers in the end zone, while the opponent wants to play at the other end of the field.  After each overtime, the players, officials, chain gang, and hundreds of fans must make the 100-yard walk to the other end of the field.

It’s no longer much of a secret that making two-point conversions is about as difficult as making 55-yard field goals.  That became a huge problem yesterday in Happy Valley, Pennsylvania.  Penn State and Illinois could not convert their two-point conversion attempts.  Overtimes three, four, five, six, and seven produced 10 consecutive botched conversions.  As each overtime ended, everybody had to move to the other end of the field, and the longer into this mess it continued, the big tubby linemen began to walk at a snail’s pace to get back.

Illinois finally scored in the eighth overtime, but then Penn State did the same forcing a ninth overtime.  The game was finally decided when the Nittany Lions missed their ninth overtime attempt, while Illinois scored to win the game 20-18.

In the amount of time it took to play the nine overtimes, another game that kicked off at the same time as the first overtime began the second quarter of their game just before the nine-overtime game concluded.  In other words, it took a little longer than one full quarter to play the nine overtimes.

Imagine a game in late November with sloppy playing conditions where regulation ends in a tie game, and nobody can score in the overtimes for 10 or more of these ridiculous two-point conversion attempts.  If it took nine yesterday, there is a possibility that somebody else will need 10 or more.

The NCAA must re-evaluate this fiasco of a rule.  In fact, the NCAA needs to have a constitutional convention and modify a lot of the rules to get into the 21st century.  Here is our suggestion for rules changes–use the same rules the NFL uses.  To wit:

1. Overtime should be one, 10-minute period with a touchdown on the first possession winning the game, but a field goal allowing the other team to have a possession.  If the game is still tied after 10 minutes, it stands as a tie game.

2. Intentional pass interference is now a definite defensive option to stop a big gain.  Players will even deliver cheap shots knowing that giving up 15 yards beats giving up 50 or a touchdown.  Because passing the ball is tantamount to winning, the pass interference penalty needs to go back to giving the offense the ball at the spot of interference, be it 12 yards past the line or 50.

3. The clock should not stop on first downs.  That rule was in effect when chain gangs were the only way to spot the ball.  In today’s world, the ball can be spotted quickly via computerization and an extra referee.  Let the clock move on first downs.

4. Add the two-minute warning.  In lieu of the clock stopping on first downs, add a two-minute warning to both halves.  That is when teams need the clock to stop, and the networks can get an extra commercial break before halftime or the end of the game.

5. Allow a player that falls to the ground with the ball but having been untouched by the defense to get up and advance.  Why should poor playing conditions be responsible for making a defensive stop?  

Here’s one additional rule change that should be considered.  Targeting happens too much these days when the ball carrier lowers his head to invite the targeting penalty.  This is almost like the flop in basketball.  The rule needs to be changed so that when the ball carrier initiates the targeting by putting himself into position for any tackle to become a potential targeting penalty, the offense should be penalized 15 yards for a personal foul.

Additionally, ejection is much too harsh of a penalty.  How about making targeting a 20-yard penalty and automatic first down, and also allowing it to supersede the half the distance to the goal and be allowed to go all the way to the 1-yard line if the offense is in the Red Zone?  A penalty in one game shouldn’t be allowed to stay in effect for a half of another game.  This may be the most ridiculous rule in college football history.  Think of a basketball game where a Syracuse player commits an intentional foul on a Connecticut player late in the second half of a game, and then three days later when Syracuse plays Duke, Duke gets to start the game with 2 foul shots from the intentional foul three days back.

January 12, 2021

PiRate Ratings 2020-2021 Final College Football Rankings

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:50 am
#Team
1Alabama
2Ohio St.
3Clemson
4Oklahoma
5Georgia
6Texas A&M
7Iowa St.
8Notre Dame
9Iowa
10Texas
11Florida
12Wisconsin
13BYU
14Cincinnati
15Oklahoma St.
16Indiana
17U S C
18Oregon
19N. Carolina
20Northwestern
21Auburn
22L S U
23Penn St.
24T C U
25Miami (Fla.)
26UCF
27Arizona St.
28Kentucky
29Utah
30Ole Miss
31Washington
32Minnesota
33U C L A
34Coastal Car.
35Louisville
36Pittsburgh
37Miss. St.
38Tennessee
39Nebraska
40Louisiana
41Michigan
42Wake Forest
43California
44Buffalo
45W. Virginia
46Virginia
47Virginia Tech
48Missouri
49Tulane
50Boise St.
51Stanford
52Boston Coll.
53Tulsa
54Memphis
55Appal. St.
56Purdue
57Oregon St.
58Arkansas
59Washington St.
60Baylor
61Liberty
62NC State
63Houston
64Air Force
65Colorado
66San Jose St.
67Illinois
68Kansas St.
69Rutgers
70SMU
71S. Carolina
72Ball St.
73Michigan St.
74San Diego St.
75Texas Tech
76Nevada
77Marshall
78Florida St.
79U A B
80Wyoming
81Army
82Georgia Sou.
83Georgia Tech
84Hawaii
85E. Carolina
86Maryland
87Ohio
88Arizona
89Fresno St.
90Western Mich.
91Georgia St.
92Toledo
93Troy
94Central Mich.
95Miami (O)
96Navy
97W. Kentucky
98Kent St.
99Syracuse
100Duke
101Colorado St.
102Vanderbilt
103Arkansas St.
104Temple
105Rice
106USF
107Fla. Atlantic
108New Mexico
109Florida Int’l.
110U T S A
111Eastern Mich.
112Utah St.
113La. Tech
114Charlotte
115Middle Tenn.
116Southern Miss.
117S. Alabama
118N. Illinois
119Texas St.
120U N L V
121Kansas
122North Texas
123U T E P
124Akron
125UL-Monroe
126Bowling Green
127Mass.

January 10, 2021

NCAA FBS Football Championship Spreads

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , — piratings @ 2:34 pm
Jan 11Championship
TeamTeamPiRateMeanBias
AlabamaOhio St.6.27.65.8

November 30, 2020

PiRate Ratings–College Football For December 3-6, 2020

We originally planned to publish the weekly spreads and ratings Tuesday afternoon, but the scheduled Tuesday morning game between Charlotte and Western Kentucky was cancelled due to the 49ers having multiple Covid-19 positives.

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, December 3
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
North TexasLouisiana Tech-8.3-8.9-8.6
Utah St.Air Force-13.6-14.6-14.3
Friday, December 4
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Louisiana0.40.31.3
UNLVBoise St.-26.3-25.1-26.8
Saturday, December 5
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Coastal Carolina (ADDED)BYU-8.1-7.2-7.7
IllinoisIowa-10.8-11.1-11.5
NevadaFresno St.1.31.51.9
WashingtonStanford10.110.911.7
Arizona St.UCLA1.92.53.0
RutgersPenn St.-9.0-8.5-9.7
Michigan St.Ohio St.-29.5-28.7-30.9
AuburnTexas A&M-2.9-3.8-3.6
Kansas St.Texas-8.1-7.7-7.7
MarshallRice19.521.820.0
TCUOklahoma St.-2.0-2.7-1.2
PurdueNebraska1.52.61.1
Texas TechKansas23.022.724.9
Northern IllinoisToledo-8.3-8.1-7.5
CharlotteFlorida Intl.0.91.31.2
Miami (O)Kent St.2.72.32.9
TulaneMemphis-1.10.20.1
MissouriArkansas6.55.87.9
South AlabamaTroy-2.2-2.1-2.1
AkronBowling Green0.51.32.5
Western Mich.Eastern Mich.14.114.314.7
Notre DameSyracuse38.236.637.9
Arkansas St.UL-Monroe18.218.819.1
TennesseeFlorida-16.0-16.2-16.7
WisconsinIndiana10.88.49.6
Iowa St.West Virginia12.912.312.7
NavyTulsa-7.3-7.1-7.3
VirginiaBoston College3.63.63.4
MichiganMaryland12.411.413.5
OhioBuffalo-8.4-8.4-8.3
GeorgiaVanderbilt34.333.935.6
San Jose St.Hawaii6.27.96.7
NC St.Georgia Tech6.77.77.7
Central Mich.Ball St.3.74.44.1
Georgia SouthernFlorida Atlantic4.94.44.1
CaliforniaOregon-10.4-9.2-10.7
ArizonaColorado1.6-1.22.0
San Diego St.Colorado St.10.410.710.7
Virginia TechClemson-23.2-23.3-24.4
KentuckySouth Carolina7.59.19.1
LSUAlabama-18.9-20.8-20.3
OklahomaBaylor18.218.319.2
DukeMiami (Fla.)-13.6-15.8-14.9
SMUHouston-1.1-0.3-1.0
New MexicoWyoming-15.9-16.7-17.8
UtahOregon St.4.54.26.0
Sunday, December 6
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Middle TennesseeUAB-11.7-11.8-10.8
USCWashington St.13.512.011.3

Added Sunday Game
Charlotte


Western Kentucky

PiRate
-4.0

Mean
-4.2

Bias
-3.5



FBS vs. FCS Game
FBSFCSPiRate
North CarolinaWestern Carolina46.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Alabama135.8136.8138.1136.9SEC-W
2Ohio St.131.0129.9133.2131.4BTen-E
3Clemson128.1128.8130.2129.1ACC
4Notre Dame125.2124.9125.4125.2ACC
5Wisconsin124.3122.4125.5124.1BTen-W
6Florida123.8123.4124.6123.9SEC-E
7Oklahoma121.9121.5122.4122.0B12
8Georgia121.5120.5122.1121.4SEC-E
9Texas A&M120.7120.7121.3120.9SEC-W
10Cincinnati119.2118.7119.4119.1AAC
11Iowa St.117.7116.9117.9117.5B12
12Iowa116.8116.5118.5117.3BTen-W
13Indiana115.5116.0117.9116.5BTen-E
14BYU116.2116.0116.7116.3Ind.
15Oregon116.7115.1116.3116.0P12-N
16U S C116.9114.1115.6115.6P12-S
17Auburn115.8114.8115.8115.5SEC-W
18N. Carolina115.0115.1115.5115.2ACC
19L S U114.9114.0115.8114.9SEC-W
20Texas114.0112.8113.9113.6B12
21Northwestern110.9111.0113.4111.8BTen-W
22Penn St.111.5110.1111.9111.2BTen-E
23Oklahoma St.111.8110.7111.0111.2B12
24Miami (Fla.)109.9111.9110.3110.7ACC
25Washington110.8109.5111.5110.6P12-N
26UCF110.4110.3110.7110.5AAC
27Ole Miss109.0107.9109.0108.6SEC-W
28Missouri107.9107.8109.2108.3SEC-E
29Kentucky107.9107.8108.8108.2SEC-E
30T C U107.8106.0107.8107.2B12
31Arizona St.107.4106.9107.4107.2P12-S
32Boise St.107.2107.2106.9107.1MWC-M
33Utah106.9106.7107.7107.1P12-S
34W. Virginia106.8106.6107.2106.9B12
35Louisville107.1107.0106.5106.8ACC
36U C L A107.5106.4106.3106.7P12-S
37Coastal Car.106.1106.8107.0106.6SUN-E
38Minnesota106.0106.5107.4106.6BTen-W
39Virginia105.8106.2106.3106.1ACC
40Tennessee105.9105.2105.8105.6SEC-E
41Pittsburgh105.2106.1105.4105.6ACC
42Michigan105.4104.5106.3105.4BTen-E
43Baylor105.8105.2105.3105.4B12
44Washington St.105.4104.2106.3105.3P12-N
45Wake Forest104.7105.5105.5105.3ACC
46Nebraska104.9104.2106.2105.1BTen-W
47Purdue104.5104.8105.4104.9BTen-W
48Louisiana105.2104.8104.6104.9SUN-W
49Buffalo104.3105.0105.1104.8MAC-E
50Memphis105.8104.5104.1104.8AAC
51Boston Coll.104.2104.6105.0104.6ACC
52Miss. St.104.6104.0105.2104.6SEC-W
53Oregon St.104.4104.6103.7104.2P12-N
54Illinois104.0103.4105.0104.1BTen-W
55California104.2103.9103.7103.9P12-N
56Kansas St.103.9103.1104.2103.7B12
57Arkansas103.4104.0103.3103.6SEC-W
58Appal. St.103.6103.1103.9103.5SUN-E
59Virginia Tech102.9103.5103.8103.4ACC
60Tulane103.2103.2102.7103.0AAC
61Marshall103.1103.4102.7103.0CUSA-E
62Tulsa103.3101.8101.7102.2AAC
63Stanford102.7100.6101.8101.7P12-N
64S. Carolina102.4100.7101.7101.6SEC-E
65NC State101.3101.8101.6101.6ACC
66Houston102.3100.9101.2101.5AAC
67Liberty100.0102.9100.8101.2Ind.
68Air Force100.6101.3100.5100.8MWC-M
69Rutgers101.0100.1100.7100.6BTen-E
70Colorado100.7101.899.3100.6P12-S
71SMU100.199.699.299.7AAC
72Michigan St.99.599.2100.299.7BTen-E
73Arizona100.398.699.399.4P12-S
74Texas Tech99.598.499.999.3B12
75San Diego St.98.199.198.298.5MWC-W
76Wyoming97.899.198.698.5MWC-M
77San Jose St.95.697.495.696.2MWC-W
78Florida St.96.595.696.196.1ACC
79Nevada95.496.295.995.9MWC-W
80Fresno St.95.696.395.595.8MWC-W
81Georgia Tech96.195.695.495.7ACC
82U A B95.395.894.795.3CUSA-W
83E. Carolina95.695.494.595.2AAC
84Western Mich.94.196.095.195.1MAC-W
85Maryland95.195.194.895.0BTen-E
86Ohio94.495.195.394.9MAC-E
87Central Mich.94.794.995.094.9MAC-W
88Duke94.894.793.994.4ACC
89Army92.894.392.793.3Ind.
90Navy94.092.792.393.0AAC
91Hawaii92.993.192.492.8MWC-W
92Ball St.92.492.092.492.3MAC-W
93Georgia Sou.91.992.692.092.2SUN-E
94Georgia St.91.892.192.392.1SUN-E
95Miami (O)92.491.592.192.0MAC-E
96Toledo91.592.691.191.7MAC-W
97Kent St.91.290.790.790.9MAC-E
98W. Kentucky90.190.589.590.0CUSA-E
99Colorado St.89.690.489.689.9MWC-M
100Syracuse89.090.389.589.6ACC
101Fla. Atlantic88.589.789.489.2CUSA-E
102Vanderbilt89.288.588.588.8SEC-E
103Troy87.988.887.888.2SUN-E
104Temple87.987.686.387.3AAC
105USF87.886.586.286.8AAC
106Arkansas St.86.386.885.686.2SUN-W
107La. Tech85.486.385.585.8CUSA-W
108Florida Int’l.85.785.585.385.5CUSA-E
109U T S A85.285.685.485.4CUSA-W
110Utah St.85.585.284.785.1MWC-M
111Charlotte84.684.884.584.6CUSA-E
112Rice85.683.684.784.6CUSA-W
113S. Alabama84.285.284.384.6SUN-W
114Middle Tenn.82.282.582.382.3CUSA-E
115N. Illinois81.683.082.182.3MAC-W
116Eastern Mich.81.583.281.982.2MAC-W
117New Mexico81.982.480.781.7MWC-M
118Texas St.81.081.580.280.9SUN-W
119Southern Miss.80.580.879.680.3CUSA-W
120U N L V79.580.678.779.6MWC-W
121Kansas78.577.776.977.7B12
122North Texas75.675.975.475.7CUSA-W
123UL-Monroe70.070.068.669.5SUN-W
124U T E P67.870.267.768.6CUSA-W
125Akron67.769.866.367.9MAC-E
126Bowling Green68.269.564.967.5MAC-E
127Mass.61.767.559.963.0Ind.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgAACOverall
Cincinnati119.2118.7119.4119.16-08-0
UCF110.4110.3110.7110.55-36-3
Memphis105.8104.5104.1104.84-26-2
Tulane103.2103.2102.7103.02-55-5
Tulsa103.3101.8101.7102.25-05-1
Houston102.3100.9101.2101.53-23-3
SMU100.199.699.299.74-37-3
E. Carolina95.695.494.595.23-43-6
Navy94.092.792.393.03-33-5
Temple87.987.686.387.31-61-6
USF87.886.586.286.80-71-8
AAC Avg.100.9100.199.8100.3

Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgACCOverall
Clemson128.1128.8130.2129.17-18-1
Notre Dame125.2124.9125.4125.28-09-0
N. Carolina115.0115.1115.5115.26-36-3
Miami (Fla.)109.9111.9110.3110.76-17-1
Louisville107.1107.0106.5106.82-73-7
Virginia105.8106.2106.3106.13-44-4
Pittsburgh105.2106.1105.4105.64-55-5
Wake Forest104.7105.5105.5105.33-34-3
Boston Coll.104.2104.6105.0104.65-46-4
Virginia Tech102.9103.5103.8103.44-44-5
NC State101.3101.8101.6101.66-37-3
Florida St.96.595.696.196.11-62-6
Georgia Tech96.195.695.495.73-43-5
Duke94.894.793.994.41-72-7
Syracuse89.090.389.589.61-81-9
ACC Avg.105.7106.1106.0106.0

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgB12Overall
Oklahoma121.9121.5122.4122.05-26-2
Iowa St.117.7116.9117.9117.57-17-2
Texas114.0112.8113.9113.64-35-3
Oklahoma St.111.8110.7111.0111.25-26-2
T C U107.8106.0107.8107.24-44-4
W. Virginia106.8106.6107.2106.94-35-3
Baylor105.8105.2105.3105.42-52-5
Kansas St.103.9103.1104.2103.74-44-5
Texas Tech99.598.499.999.32-63-6
Kansas78.577.776.977.70-70-8
Big 12 Avg.106.8105.9106.7106.4

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Ohio St.131.0129.9133.2131.44-04-0
Indiana115.5116.0117.9116.55-15-1
Penn St.111.5110.1111.9111.21-51-5
Michigan105.4104.5106.3105.42-42-4
Rutgers101.0100.1100.7100.62-42-4
Michigan St.99.599.2100.299.72-32-3
Maryland95.195.194.895.02-22-2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Wisconsin124.3122.4125.5124.12-12-1
Iowa116.8116.5118.5117.34-24-2
Northwestern110.9111.0113.4111.85-15-1
Minnesota106.0106.5107.4106.62-32-3
Nebraska104.9104.2106.2105.11-41-4
Purdue104.5104.8105.4104.92-32-3
Illinois104.0103.4105.0104.12-32-3
Big Ten Avg.109.3108.9110.5109.5

Conference USA

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
Marshall103.1103.4102.7103.04-07-0
W. Kentucky90.190.589.590.03-34-6
Fla. Atlantic88.589.789.489.24-15-1
Florida Int’l.85.785.585.385.50-30-5
Charlotte84.684.884.584.62-12-3
Middle Tenn.82.282.582.382.32-43-6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
U A B95.395.894.795.32-14-3
La. Tech85.486.385.585.83-24-3
U T S A85.285.685.485.45-27-4
Rice85.683.684.784.61-21-2
Southern Miss.80.580.879.680.31-42-7
North Texas75.675.975.475.72-33-4
U T E P67.870.267.768.60-33-4
CUSA Avg.85.485.785.185.4

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
BYU116.2116.0116.7116.3x9-0
Liberty100.0102.9100.8101.2x9-1
Army92.894.392.793.3x6-2
Mass.61.767.559.963.0x0-4
Ind. Avg.92.795.292.593.5

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Buffalo104.3105.0105.1104.84-04-0
Ohio94.495.195.394.92-12-1
Miami (O)92.491.592.192.02-12-1
Kent St.91.290.790.790.93-13-1
Akron67.769.866.367.90-40-4
Bowling Green68.269.564.967.50-40-4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Western Mich.94.196.095.195.14-04-0
Central Mich.94.794.995.094.93-13-1
Ball St.92.492.092.492.33-13-1
Toledo91.592.691.191.72-22-2
N. Illinois81.683.082.182.30-40-4
Eastern Mich.81.583.281.982.20-40-4
MAC Avg.87.888.687.788.0

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Boise St.107.2107.2106.9107.14-04-1
Air Force100.6101.3100.5100.81-22-2
Wyoming97.899.198.698.52-22-2
Colorado St.89.690.489.689.91-21-2
Utah St.85.585.284.785.11-41-4
New Mexico81.982.480.781.70-50-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
San Diego St.98.199.198.298.53-23-3
San Jose St.95.697.495.696.24-04-0
Nevada95.496.295.995.95-15-1
Fresno St.95.696.395.595.83-13-1
Hawaii92.993.192.492.83-33-3
U N L V79.580.678.779.60-50-5
MWC Avg.93.394.093.193.5

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Oregon116.7115.1116.3116.03-13-1
Washington110.8109.5111.5110.63-03-0
Washington St.105.4104.2106.3105.31-11-1
Oregon St.104.4104.6103.7104.22-22-2
California104.2103.9103.7103.90-30-3
Stanford102.7100.6101.8101.71-21-2

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
U S C116.9114.1115.6115.63-03-0
Arizona St.107.4106.9107.4107.20-10-1
Utah106.9106.7107.7107.10-20-2
U C L A107.5106.4106.3106.72-22-2
Colorado100.7101.899.3100.62-03-0
Arizona100.398.699.399.40-30-3
P12 Avg.107.0106.0106.6106.5

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Florida123.8123.4124.6123.97-17-1
Georgia121.5120.5122.1121.46-26-2
Missouri107.9107.8109.2108.34-34-3
Kentucky107.9107.8108.8108.23-63-6
Tennessee105.9105.2105.8105.62-52-5
S. Carolina102.4100.7101.7101.62-72-7
Vanderbilt89.288.588.588.80-80-8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Alabama135.8136.8138.1136.98-08-0
Texas A&M120.7120.7121.3120.96-16-1
Auburn115.8114.8115.8115.55-35-3
L S U114.9114.0115.8114.93-43-4
Ole Miss109.0107.9109.0108.64-44-4
Miss. St.104.6104.0105.2104.62-62-6
Arkansas103.4104.0103.3103.63-53-5
SEC Avg.111.6111.1112.1111.6

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Coastal Car.106.1106.8107.0106.67-09-0
Appal. St.103.6103.1103.9103.55-17-2
Georgia Sou.91.992.692.092.24-36-4
Georgia St.91.892.192.392.14-45-4
Troy87.988.887.888.22-34-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Louisiana105.2104.8104.6104.96-18-1
Arkansas St.86.386.885.686.21-63-7
S. Alabama84.285.284.384.63-44-6
Texas St.81.081.580.280.92-62-10
UL-Monroe70.070.068.669.50-60-9
Sun Avg.90.891.290.690.9

Conference Ratings

#LeagueAvg
1SEC111.6
2BTen109.5
3P12106.5
4B12106.4
5ACC106.0
6AAC100.3
7MWC93.5
8Ind.93.5
9Sun90.9
10MAC88.0
11CUSA85.4

November 17, 2020

College Football TV Schedule For November 17-21, 2020

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:25 am
Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitorComment
7:00 PMCBSSNB. GreenBuffaloBulls could win by 35-40 in pursuit of top 25
8:00 PMESPNKent St.AkronAbout like watching Alabama play an FCS team
Wednesday, November, 18
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitorComment
7:00 PMESPN2Central Mich.Western Mich.Best MACtion so far and maybe best all year
7:00 PMESPNNewsBall St.N. IllinoisNot much reason to watch this one
7:00 PMCBSSNEastern Mich.ToledoEMU: 15 min. from The Big House–must be in the water

Thursday, November 19
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitorComment
7:30 PMESPNTulsaTulaneGreen Wave can make this a close game
9:00 PMCBSSNWyomingUtah St.USU one of the biggest disappointments of the year

Friday, November 20
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitorComment
7:00 PMESPNLouisvilleSyracuse1st of 4 TV games not to watch on Friday
7:30 PMBTNMinnesotaPurdueJeff Brohm could be a candidate at South Carolina
8:00 PMCBSSNFla. AtlanticMassachusettsUMass should be playing FCS
9:30 PMFS1Air ForceNew MexicoThe only halfway entertaining game on Friday

Saturday, November 21
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitorComment
12:00 PMABCFlorida St.ClemsonThe great Trevor returns from Covid
12:00 PMESPNVanderbiltFloridaIf Florida isn’t up 42-0 at the half, Trask could get 400+ yds
12:00 PMESPN2Coastal Car.Appy St.Best Noon game. SBC East title on the line
12:00 PMFOXOhio St.IndianaWould be nice for Hoosiers to keep it close, but doubtful
12:00 PMSECNArkansasLSUShould be interesting but not one of the big 2 at Noon
12:00 PMFS1NebraskaIllinoisScott Frost may have found his QB vs. Penn St.
12:00 PMACCNDukeWake ForestDeacons lost and score 53 last week
12:00 PMBTNMarylandMichigan St.Tua’s little brother looks talented
12:00 PMCBSSNArmyGa. Southern90% of the plays will be runs–120 play game?
12:00 PMESPNUSMUHoustonA bowl positioning game
3:30 PMABCNorthwesternWisconsinBig Ten West title on the line between backyard rivals
3:30 PMFS1Oregon St.CaliforniaBest game between winless teams but not worth watching
3:30 PMESPNCentral Fla.CincinnatiBearcats are walking into a possible ambush
3:30 PMESPN2KansasTexasHorns need to win by 5+ TDs to look good
3:30 PMCBSSNNevadaSan Diego St.A sneaky good game–watch with the ABC game
3:30 PMBTNPenn St.IowaIs James Franklin shopping around for new job?
4:00 PMFOXIowa St.Kansas St.ISU looking to secure B12 Championship Game slot
4:00 PMSECNAlabamaKentuckyTide defense will come up with best game of the year
4:00 PMACCNPittsburghVirginia TechLoser probably not going bowling this year
4:00 PMESPNUS. AlabamaGeorgia St.No reason to watch if your son isn’t playing
7:00 PMESPNAuburnTennesseeLosing coach firmly on the hot seat
7:00 PMCBSSNFresno St.San Jose St.Should be very entertaining and worth watching
7:30 PMABCOklahomaOklahoma St.Bedlam winner probably getting into B12 Title Game
7:30 PMFSNNC StateLibertyLiberty vulnerable here due to all the Freeze to SC talk
7:30 PMSECNGeorgiaMississippi St.Bulldog defense should shut MSU down to 7-14 pts
7:30 PMSECNAS. CaroinaMissouriInterim Coach Bobo gets audition for next job
7:30 PMBTNRutgersMichiganAnother UM loss probably seals Harbaugh’s fate
8:00 PMFOXWashingtonArizonaCan Huskies contend with Oregon in the P12 North?
8:00 PMESPNUSouth FloridaNavyNot much watching value in this one
10:30 PMESPNUtahUSCNight owl theater with possible surprise ending #3?
11:00 PMCBSSNHawaiiBoise St.ESPN game the better option
11:00 PMFS1StanfordWash. St.Cougars look stronger this year, Cardinal look in trouble
3:30 PMESPN2OregonUCLATV details still undetermined due to moving game to Sat.

September 16, 2020

The Big Ten Reverses Course

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:53 am

The Big Ten Conference has decided to resume football in 2020, reversing its decision to wait until the Winter/Spring of 2021. The league hopes to begin playing in late October and most likely play an 8-game schedule, concluding on December 19 with the Conference Championship Game.

This will pose big problems with the PiRate Ratings for two reasons, which I am sure the folks at Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Iowa, and Northwestern didn’t consider when considering whether or not to return.

The PiRate Ratings will have to recalculate to a 90-team environment from a 76-team environment. Our ratings use sample size in the algorithm and maintain a mean rating of 100.0 (or 100.0 is par value). By the time the Big Ten commences playing, other teams will have played as many as seven game, and their updating criteria will be quite different from the teams just starting play. Even though the Big Ten will be self-contained and play only inside its own environment, for ranking and rating purposes, these teams must be compared on the same par value, which means in order to re-install the Big Ten’s original preseason ratings, the other 76 teams will have to be recalculated, and to be quite honest, not only have we yet to cross that bridge, we cannot find it on a map!

In addition to the recalculation, we will have to create new formats on our spreadsheets and input the new algorithmic formulae for 90 teams (or 76 + however many Big Ten teams play).

Note to Pac-12, MWC, and MAC officials: if you plan on reconsidering your league paradigm this year, please make those decisions known by Noon Saturday!

January 13, 2020

PiRate College Football Ratings: Final For 2019-2020 Season

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:15 pm

Final PiRate Ratings for 2019-2020

January 14, 2020

 

Congratulations to the LSU Tigers–2019-2020 NCAA FBS National Champions

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

L S U

142.1

140.5

142.9

141.8

2

Ohio St.

141.3

140.2

142.0

141.2

3

Clemson

139.0

137.5

140.2

138.9

4

Alabama

130.2

127.4

130.7

129.4

5

Georgia

126.5

124.9

126.7

126.0

6

Florida

125.1

122.8

124.9

124.2

7

Michigan

124.2

122.6

124.3

123.7

8

Wisconsin

122.6

122.5

123.0

122.7

9

Oregon

122.1

122.0

122.9

122.3

10

Notre Dame

122.1

121.4

122.5

122.0

11

Utah

121.8

120.9

122.4

121.7

12

Penn St.

121.5

120.8

121.8

121.4

13

Auburn

121.7

119.9

121.2

120.9

14

Oklahoma

121.1

120.5

120.8

120.8

15

Iowa

120.1

118.8

119.9

119.6

16

Minnesota

118.4

118.0

118.0

118.1

17

Baylor

117.3

117.1

116.4

116.9

18

Washington

115.5

115.2

116.4

115.7

19

Texas

113.6

113.9

113.5

113.7

20

Texas A&M

115.0

112.5

113.2

113.6

21

Kentucky

112.5

111.6

112.0

112.0

22

Central Florida

111.7

111.2

112.2

111.7

23

Iowa St.

111.6

111.7

111.2

111.5

24

Kansas St.

111.1

111.1

110.9

111.0

25

Virginia Tech

110.4

110.2

110.8

110.5

26

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

27

North Carolina

110.2

110.1

110.9

110.4

28

Oklahoma St.

110.4

110.8

109.8

110.3

29

Memphis

110.0

110.1

110.7

110.3

30

U S C

109.3

109.7

109.9

109.7

31

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

32

Appalachian St.

109.1

108.7

108.3

108.7

33

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

34

Washington St.

108.8

108.1

108.7

108.5

35

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

36

Cincinnati

108.3

107.9

108.5

108.2

37

Virginia

108.1

107.9

108.5

108.2

38

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

39

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.4

108.0

40

Mississippi St.

108.0

104.9

111.0

108.0

41

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

42

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.8

107.1

43

Air Force

105.8

107.5

106.9

106.7

44

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

45

Boise St.

105.7

106.1

106.0

105.9

46

California

104.7

104.7

105.3

104.9

47

Florida St.

104.7

104.4

104.6

104.6

48

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

49

Florida Atlantic

103.7

103.9

105.0

104.2

50

Navy

102.9

105.1

104.4

104.1

51

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

52

Louisiana

103.0

103.1

102.6

102.9

53

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.2

102.9

54

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

55

SMU

102.4

102.3

103.0

102.6

56

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

57

Miami (Fla.)

102.3

101.8

102.6

102.2

58

Louisville

102.0

101.5

102.2

101.9

59

Pittsburgh

102.1

101.5

101.9

101.8

60

BYU

101.9

102.1

101.2

101.7

61

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

62

Illinois

101.2

101.6

100.7

101.2

63

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

64

Tulane

100.6

100.8

101.2

100.9

65

San Diego St.

100.1

101.7

100.1

100.6

66

Wyoming

99.7

101.4

100.1

100.4

67

Boston College

99.5

99.0

99.6

99.4

68

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

69

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

70

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

71

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

72

Ohio

98.4

97.8

98.9

98.4

73

Georgia Southern

97.9

98.0

97.5

97.8

74

Hawaii

97.0

98.3

96.4

97.2

75

Temple

96.9

96.8

98.0

97.2

76

Western Michigan

97.4

96.5

96.9

96.9

77

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

78

Buffalo

95.7

96.4

97.2

96.4

79

Louisiana Tech

96.1

96.3

96.2

96.2

80

Western Kentucky

95.5

96.0

96.7

96.1

81

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

82

Utah St.

95.6

95.2

95.7

95.5

83

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

84

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

85

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

86

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

87

Army

92.8

93.0

92.0

92.6

88

Southern Miss.

92.7

92.0

92.7

92.5

89

Marshall

91.9

91.6

92.4

92.0

90

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

91

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

92

Liberty

90.6

91.9

91.0

91.1

93

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

94

Arkansas St.

90.5

91.0

90.4

90.6

95

Miami (Ohio)

90.6

89.9

91.0

90.5

96

Central Michigan

89.6

90.2

90.6

90.1

97

Nevada

89.8

91.1

89.1

90.0

98

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

99

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

100

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

101

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

102

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

103

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

104

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

105

Florida Int’l.

88.6

88.4

88.6

88.5

106

Eastern Michigan

88.1

88.3

88.6

88.4

107

Georgia St.

88.2

89.0

87.2

88.1

108

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

109

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

110

U A B

86.6

88.2

87.2

87.3

111

Charlotte

87.0

87.3

87.6

87.3

112

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

114

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

115

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

116

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

117

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

118

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

119

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

120

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

121

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

122

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

123

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

124

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

125

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

126

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

127

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

128

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

129

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.7

111.2

112.2

111.7

6-2

10-3

Cincinnati

108.3

107.9

108.5

108.2

7-1

11-3

Temple

96.9

96.8

98.0

97.2

5-3

8-5

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

2-6

4-8

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

1-7

4-8

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

0-8

2-10

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

110.0

110.1

110.7

110.3

7-1

12-2

Navy

102.9

105.1

104.4

104.1

7-1

11-2

SMU

102.4

102.3

103.0

102.6

6-2

10-3

Tulane

100.6

100.8

101.2

100.9

3-5

7-6

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

2-6

4-8

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

2-6

4-8

AAC Averages

97.0

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

139.0

137.5

140.2

138.9

8-0

14-1

Florida St.

104.7

104.4

104.6

104.6

4-4

6-7

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.2

102.9

4-4

8-5

Louisville

102.0

101.5

102.2

101.9

5-3

8-5

Boston College

99.5

99.0

99.6

99.4

4-4

7-6

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

2-6

5-7

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

1-7

4-8

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia Tech

110.4

110.2

110.8

110.5

5-3

8-5

North Carolina

110.2

110.1

110.9

110.4

4-4

7-6

Virginia

108.1

107.9

108.5

108.2

6-2

9-5

Miami (Fla.)

102.3

101.8

102.6

102.2

4-4

6-7

Pittsburgh

102.1

101.5

101.9

101.8

4-4

8-5

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

3-5

5-7

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

2-6

3-9

ACC Averages

104.5

103.9

104.6

104.3

 

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

121.1

120.5

120.8

120.8

8-1

12-2

Baylor

117.3

117.1

116.4

116.9

8-1

11-3

Texas

113.6

113.9

113.5

113.7

5-4

8-5

Iowa St.

111.6

111.7

111.2

111.5

5-4

7-6

Kansas St.

111.1

111.1

110.9

111.0

5-4

8-5

Oklahoma St.

110.4

110.8

109.8

110.3

5-4

8-5

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

3-6

5-7

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

2-7

4-8

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

3-6

5-7

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

1-8

3-9

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.7

109.0

109.4

 

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

141.3

140.2

142.0

141.2

9-0

13-1

Michigan

124.2

122.6

124.3

123.7

6-3

9-4

Penn St.

121.5

120.8

121.8

121.4

7-2

11-2

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

5-4

8-5

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.8

107.1

4-5

7-6

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

1-8

3-9

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

0-9

2-10

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

122.6

122.5

123.0

122.7

7-2

10-4

Iowa

120.1

118.8

119.9

119.6

6-3

10-3

Minnesota

118.4

118.0

118.0

118.1

7-2

11-2

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

3-6

5-7

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

3-6

4-8

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

1-8

3-9

Illinois

101.2

101.6

100.7

101.2

4-5

6-7

Big Ten Averages

111.4

110.7

110.9

111.0

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

103.7

103.9

105.0

104.2

7-1

11-3

Western Kentucky

95.5

96.0

96.7

96.1

6-2

8-5

Marshall

91.9

91.6

92.4

92.0

6-2

8-5

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

3-5

4-8

Florida Int’l.

88.6

88.4

88.6

88.5

4-4

6-7

Charlotte

87.0

87.3

87.6

87.3

5-3

7-6

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

0-8

1-11

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

96.1

96.3

96.2

96.2

6-2

10-3

Southern Miss.

92.7

92.0

92.7

92.5

5-3

7-6

U A B

86.6

88.2

87.2

87.3

6-2

9-5

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

3-5

4-8

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

3-5

3-9

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

3-5

4-8

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

0-8

1-11

CUSA Averages

87.0

87.5

87.3

87.3

 

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

122.1

121.4

122.5

122.0

x

11-2

BYU

101.9

102.1

101.2

101.7

x

7-6

Army

92.8

93.0

92.0

92.6

x

5-8

Liberty

90.6

91.9

91.0

91.1

x

8-5

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

x

2-10

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

x

1-11

Indep. Averages

89.9

90.6

89.6

90.1

 

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

98.4

97.8

98.9

98.4

5-3

7-6

Buffalo

95.7

96.4

97.2

96.4

5-3

8-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.6

89.9

91.0

90.5

6-2

8-6

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

5-3

6-6

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

2-6

3-9

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

0-8

0-12

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.4

96.5

96.9

96.9

5-3

7-6

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

4-4

5-7

Central Michigan

89.6

90.2

90.6

90.1

6-2

8-6

Eastern Michigan

88.1

88.3

88.6

88.4

3-5

6-7

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

4-4

5-7

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

3-5

6-6

MAC Averages

86.9

86.6

87.1

86.9

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Air Force

105.8

107.5

106.9

106.7

7-1

11-2

Boise St.

105.7

106.1

106.0

105.9

8-0

12-2

Wyoming

99.7

101.4

100.1

100.4

4-4

8-5

Utah St.

95.6

95.2

95.7

95.5

6-2

7-6

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

3-5

4-8

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

0-8

2-10

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

100.1

101.7

100.1

100.6

5-3

10-3

Hawaii

97.0

98.3

96.4

97.2

5-3

10-5

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

2-6

4-8

Nevada

89.8

91.1

89.1

90.0

4-4

7-6

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

2-6

5-7

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

2-6

4-8

MWC Averages

93.8

95.2

93.8

94.3

 

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

122.1

122.0

122.9

122.3

8-1

12-2

Washington

115.5

115.2

116.4

115.7

4-5

8-5

Washington St.

108.8

108.1

108.7

108.5

3-6

6-7

California

104.7

104.7

105.3

104.9

4-5

8-5

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

4-5

5-7

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

3-6

4-8

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

121.8

120.9

122.4

121.7

8-1

11-3

U S C

109.3

109.7

109.9

109.7

7-2

8-5

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.4

108.0

4-5

8-5

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

3-6

5-7

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

4-5

4-8

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

2-7

4-8

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.0

107.5

107.3

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.5

124.9

126.7

126.0

7-1

12-2

Florida

125.1

122.8

124.9

124.2

6-2

11-2

Kentucky

112.5

111.6

112.0

112.0

3-5

8-5

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

5-3

8-5

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

3-5

6-6

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

3-5

4-8

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-7

3-9

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

142.1

140.5

142.9

141.8

8-0

15-0

Alabama

130.2

127.4

130.7

129.4

6-2

11-2

Auburn

121.7

119.9

121.2

120.9

5-3

9-4

Texas A&M

115.0

112.5

113.2

113.6

4-4

8-5

Mississippi St.

108.0

104.9

111.0

108.0

3-5

6-7

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

2-6

4-8

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

0-8

2-10

SEC Averages

114.1

112.4

113.9

113.5

 

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

109.1

108.7

108.3

108.7

7-1

13-1

Georgia Southern

97.9

98.0

97.5

97.8

5-3

7-6

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

3-5

5-7

Georgia St.

88.2

89.0

87.2

88.1

4-4

7-6

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

2-6

5-7

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

103.0

103.1

102.6

102.9

7-1

11-3

Arkansas St.

90.5

91.0

90.4

90.6

5-3

8-5

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

4-4

5-7

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

2-6

3-9

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

1-7

2-10

SBC Averages

90.8

91.4

90.3

90.8

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.5

2

Big Ten

111.0

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.3

5

Atlantic Coast

104.3

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.3

8

Sun Belt

90.8

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conference USA

87.3

11

Mid-American

86.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:46 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

Kent St.

2.8

3.2

3.2

Western Michigan

Ball St.

10.9

10.5

10.8

 

 

Wednesday

November 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio U

Miami (O)

7.4

7.8

7.5

 

 

Thursday

November 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Coastal Carolina

Louisiana

-11.7

-10.7

-12.1

South Florida

Temple

-3.9

-1.8

-4.3

 

 

Friday

November 8

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon St.

Washington

-11.6

-10.2

-12.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

-18.6

-17.1

-18.3

 

 

Saturday

November 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

LSU

9.2

8.4

9.9

Arizona St.

USC

2.9

1.8

3.1

Arkansas

Western Kentucky

5.8

5.1

3.9

Army

Massachusetts

38.5

36.9

39.1

Boise St.

Wyoming

9.9

7.7

9.6

Boston College

Florida St.

2.6

2.4

3.0

BYU

Liberty

17.2

15.9

17.4

California

Washington St.

-7.1

-6.7

-7.3

Cincinnati

Connecticut

38.8

34.5

40.2

Colorado

Stanford

-5.5

-5.1

-5.6

Duke

Notre Dame

-7.7

-6.5

-7.3

Florida

Vanderbilt

28.5

26.9

29.3

Florida Atlantic

Florida Int’l.

9.4

9.5

10.9

Fresno St.

Utah St.

-1.0

0.9

-1.2

Georgia

Missouri

18.1

18.6

18.6

Hawaii

San Jose St.

12.0

11.5

11.1

Kentucky

Tennessee

2.2

1.0

2.0

Louisiana Tech

North Texas

6.4

7.1

6.2

Miami (Fla.)

Louisville

10.7

10.4

11.8

Michigan St.

Illinois

14.0

12.1

13.9

Minnesota

Penn St.

-3.9

-3.1

-4.5

New Mexico

Air Force

-21.4

-20.3

-23.4

North Carolina St.

Clemson

-35.7

-33.8

-36.9

Northwestern

Purdue

1.5

0.5

0.7

Ohio St.

Maryland

42.4

42.6

44.9

Oklahoma

Iowa St.

11.8

10.3

11.2

Old Dominion

UTSA

0.7

-1.1

0.9

Ole Miss

New Mexico St.

33.0

30.0

32.9

San Diego St.

Nevada

14.7

14.9

15.2

SMU

East Carolina

26.3

24.6

27.0

South Carolina

Appalachian St.

8.1

7.4

8.1

Southern Miss.

UAB

7.0

4.0

6.5

TCU

Baylor

-4.1

-1.7

-3.2

Texas

Kansas St.

0.7

1.0

0.6

Texas St.

South Alabama

9.8

7.8

9.8

Troy

Georgia Southern

-2.9

-2.1

-3.5

UL-Monroe

Georgia St.

-4.1

-5.0

-4.3

UTEP

Charlotte

-15.1

-11.5

-14.9

Virginia

Georgia Tech

15.8

17.6

15.9

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

-1.5

-1.0

-1.5

West Virginia

Texas Tech

1.2

0.7

1.6

Wisconsin

Iowa

4.3

5.7

4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

2

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

3

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

4

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

5

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

6

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

9

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

10

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

11

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

12

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

15

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

16

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

17

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

18

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

21

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

22

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

23

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

24

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

25

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

26

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

27

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

28

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

29

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

32

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

33

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

34

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

35

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

36

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

37

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

38

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

39

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

40

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

41

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

42

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

43

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

44

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

45

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

46

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

47

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

48

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

49

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

50

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

51

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

52

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

53

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

54

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

55

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

56

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

57

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

58

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

59

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

60

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

61

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

62

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

63

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

66

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

67

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

68

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

69

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

70

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

71

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

72

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

73

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

74

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

75

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

76

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

77

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

80

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

81

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

82

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

83

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

84

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

85

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

86

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

87

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

88

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

89

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

90

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

91

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

92

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

93

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

97

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

98

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

99

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

101

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

102

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

103

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

104

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

105

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

106

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

107

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

108

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

109

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

110

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

111

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

112

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

113

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

114

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

115

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

116

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

117

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

118

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

121

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

122

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

126

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

128

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

129

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

130

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.5

112.8

114.2

113.5

4-1

7-2

Cincinnati

107.0

106.0

107.4

106.8

4-0

7-1

Temple

98.3

97.5

99.1

98.3

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.4

92.6

91.8

91.9

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

82.9

84.3

83.1

83.4

0-5

3-6

Connecticut

71.2

74.5

70.2

72.0

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.2

105.9

107.1

106.4

4-1

8-1

Memphis

105.9

105.9

106.7

106.2

4-1

8-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.2

100.1

3-2

6-3

Navy

97.9

100.5

98.9

99.1

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.0

97.9

99.1

98.0

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

92.9

92.5

0-5

2-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.3

133.0

136.3

134.9

6-0

9-0

Wake Forest

106.5

106.0

107.0

106.5

3-1

7-1

Florida St.

103.6

103.5

103.6

103.6

3-4

4-5

Boston College

103.2

102.9

103.6

103.2

3-3

5-4

Louisville

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

3-2

5-3

Syracuse

98.5

97.7

97.8

98.0

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.6

96.2

96.5

96.4

1-3

4-4

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.7

107.8

107.9

107.8

4-2

6-3

Miami (Fla.)

107.2

106.8

108.3

107.4

3-3

5-4

Pittsburgh

105.7

105.3

106.0

105.7

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.4

105.2

106.1

105.6

3-3

4-5

Duke

105.7

105.1

105.6

105.5

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

102.0

102.0

102.5

102.2

3-2

5-3

Georgia Tech

94.8

93.2

95.0

94.3

1-4

2-6

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.5

122.7

123.2

123.1

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.8

115.4

115.0

115.1

3-2

5-3

Baylor

113.5

113.5

112.8

113.3

5-0

8-0

Kansas St.

112.3

112.2

112.3

112.3

3-2

6-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.7

109.7

110.1

3-3

6-3

Texas

109.9

110.2

109.9

110.0

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

109.8

107.6

108.2

2-3

4-4

Texas Tech

104.4

104.6

103.5

104.2

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.7

102.3

102.1

102.3

1-4

3-5

Kansas

95.5

96.5

95.4

95.8

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

139.0

138.1

140.1

139.1

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.9

124.1

125.2

124.8

5-0

8-0

Michigan

123.0

121.6

123.3

122.6

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

112.7

111.8

112.2

112.2

2-3

4-4

Indiana

110.6

109.6

110.3

110.2

4-2

7-2

Maryland

99.6

98.5

98.2

98.8

1-5

3-6

Rutgers

84.1

83.8

82.9

83.6

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

3-2

6-2

Iowa

119.1

117.3

119.0

118.4

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

118.1

117.9

117.8

117.9

5-0

8-0

Purdue

103.6

103.4

102.9

103.3

2-4

3-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.6

102.3

103.0

2-4

4-5

Illinois

101.7

102.6

101.3

101.9

3-3

5-4

Northwestern

102.5

101.4

101.2

101.7

0-6

1-7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.3

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

95.6

95.5

96.9

96.0

4-1

6-3

Marshall

90.8

90.4

91.6

90.9

4-1

6-3

Western Kentucky

89.4

90.2

90.8

90.1

4-2

5-4

Middle Tennessee

89.8

89.0

89.9

89.6

2-3

3-6

Florida Int’l.

87.7

87.5

87.5

87.6

3-3

5-4

Charlotte

86.1

86.4

86.5

86.3

2-3

4-5

Old Dominion

73.8

74.0

73.9

73.9

0-5

1-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.6

93.3

94.8

94.2

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

94.0

94.4

94.3

94.2

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

91.8

90.7

90.9

3-1

6-2

North Texas

90.6

90.2

91.1

90.6

3-2

4-5

Rice

79.5

80.4

78.7

79.6

0-5

0-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.6

77.7

75.5

76.2

2-2

3-5

U T E P

68.5

72.5

69.1

70.0

0-5

1-7

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

116.4

114.7

116.0

115.7

x

6-2

BYU

103.2

103.2

103.4

103.3

x

4-4

Army

94.1

94.2

93.4

93.9

x

3-6

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.6

89.9

x

6-3

New Mexico St.

76.4

78.5

76.4

77.1

x

0-8

Massachusetts

58.6

60.3

57.3

58.7

x

1-8

Indep. Averages

89.7

90.3

89.3

89.8

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.4

93.5

94.9

94.3

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

92.9

93.6

94.4

93.6

3-2

5-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.5

88.2

89.9

89.2

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.6

87.4

87.9

87.6

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

74.1

73.9

74.1

74.1

2-3

3-6

Akron

66.9

66.7

65.6

66.4

0-5

0-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.8

97.9

98.7

98.5

3-2

5-4

Ball St.

90.4

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-1

4-4

Northern Illinois

89.5

88.7

89.6

89.3

2-3

3-6

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

2-2

5-3

Central Michigan

88.2

88.8

89.1

88.7

4-2

6-4

Eastern Michigan

84.2

84.3

84.5

84.4

1-4

4-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.0

105.9

106.1

106.0

4-0

7-1

Air Force

103.7

105.0

104.5

104.4

4-1

7-2

Wyoming

99.0

101.2

99.6

99.9

3-1

6-2

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

3-1

4-4

Colorado St.

87.1

90.7

87.7

88.5

3-2

4-5

New Mexico

79.8

82.2

78.5

80.2

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.7

98.4

4-1

7-1

Fresno St.

95.2

96.2

95.6

95.7

2-2

4-4

Hawaii

95.2

96.6

94.3

95.4

2-3

5-4

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

1-4

4-5

Nevada

86.2

87.7

85.5

86.5

2-3

5-4

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

1-5

2-7

MWC Averages

93.3

94.8

93.3

93.8

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.2

121.3

122.5

121.7

6-0

8-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-4

5-4

Washington St.

113.0

112.2

113.5

112.9

1-4

4-4

Stanford

104.0

103.3

103.7

103.7

3-3

4-4

California

102.8

102.4

103.3

102.8

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

3-2

4-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

5-1

8-1

U S C

107.3

107.8

107.6

107.6

4-2

5-4

Arizona St.

107.2

106.5

107.7

107.2

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.7

101.6

101.5

101.6

4-2

4-5

Arizona

96.7

96.5

96.2

96.5

2-4

4-5

Colorado

95.5

95.2

95.1

95.2

1-5

3-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.0

107.5

107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.7

124.8

126.7

126.1

4-1

7-1

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.3

121.6

5-2

7-2

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

3-4

4-5

Missouri

111.6

109.2

111.1

110.6

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.3

108.6

109.1

2-3

4-5

Kentucky

108.7

107.3

107.6

107.9

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.6

132.5

136.3

134.8

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.4

127.1

129.3

128.6

4-0

8-0

Auburn

122.5

120.8

122.3

121.9

4-2

7-2

Texas A&M

116.2

114.6

115.1

115.3

3-2

6-3

Mississippi St.

110.8

107.5

114.7

111.0

2-4

4-5

Ole Miss

106.4

105.4

106.3

106.0

2-4

3-6

Arkansas

92.2

92.2

91.6

92.0

0-6

2-7

SEC Averages

114.4

112.6

114.2

113.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

4-1

7-1

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

3-1

5-3

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

3-1

6-2

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

1-3

3-5

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

1-3

4-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

3-1

6-2

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

3-2

5-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

2-2

3-5

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

1-3

2-6

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.7

2

Big Ten

111.3

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.3

5

Atlantic Coast

105.0

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

93.8

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.8

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Alabama

4

Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Navy

5

SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Boise St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Hawaii

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Tulane

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

San Diego St.

Oregon St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

[Southern Miss.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Boston College

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Virginia

Michigan

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Kentucky

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Ball St.]

Pittsburgh

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Wake Forest

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

Mississippi St.

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Washington St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[Stanford]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Appalachian St.

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Central Florida

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Wyoming

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

October 6, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 7, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:16 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

October 9 to

October 12

Wednesday

October 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana

Appalchian St.

-2.1

-0.5

-1.6

 

 

Thursday

October 10

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Texas St.

Louisiana-Monroe

-1.5

-1.3

-1.5

North Carolina St.

Syracuse

-3.0

-2.7

-2.9

 

 

Friday

October 11

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia

1.0

0.0

1.5

New Mexico

Colorado St.

3.6

2.8

2.5

Oregon

Colorado

19.6

19.8

20.8

 

 

Saturday

October 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Indiana

Rutgers

24.6

23.7

24.7

Bowling Green

Toledo

-20.9

-21.7

-22.2

Illinois

Michigan

-20.3

-17.6

-21.7

Wake Forest

Louisville

10.8

10.5

11.9

Tulsa

Navy

5.1

3.1

5.8

Texas (n)

Oklahoma

-11.7

-10.6

-11.4

Temple

Memphis

-0.2

-1.3

-0.2

Minnesota

Nebraska

8.5

6.9

8.0

Duke

Georgia Tech

16.9

18.3

16.7

Coastal Carolina

Georgia St.

1.2

1.1

1.3

Purdue

Maryland

-0.8

-0.5

-0.8

West Virginia

Iowa St.

-6.4

-7.5

-7.1

Boise St.

Hawaii

12.0

9.8

13.1

Eastern Michigan

Ball St.

0.0

0.8

0.6

Marshall

Old Dominion

14.1

12.9

14.7

Central Michigan

New Mexico St.

10.1

8.5

10.7

Arizona St.

Washington St.

0.6

1.0

1.3

Oregon St.

Utah

-17.7

-15.0

-18.8

Arizona

Washington

-6.7

-6.0

-7.4

Missouri

Ole Miss

14.5

12.9

15.2

Georgia

South Carolina

19.2

19.3

20.1

Tennessee

Mississippi St.

-5.2

-1.5

-11.9

Akron

Kent St.

-11.5

-11.2

-12.6

Ohio

Northern Illinois

3.8

3.9

4.5

Kentucky

Arkansas

12.1

9.7

11.1

Baylor

Texas Tech

9.7

9.8

10.5

Western Michigan

Miami (O)

12.5

13.2

12.0

South Florida

BYU

-7.2

-6.1

-6.9

Houston

Cincinnati

-7.2

-4.7

-4.9

Tulane

Connecticut

32.1

28.8

34.3

Vanderbilt

UNLV

20.0

16.8

18.9

Wisconsin

Michigan St.

6.6

6.9

6.7

LSU

Florida

8.3

8.7

8.1

Nevada

San Jose St.

5.6

5.2

5.5

Texas A&M

Alabama

-15.8

-13.9

-18.0

Florida Atlantic

Middle Tennessee

6.0

6.5

6.8

UTSA

UAB

-10.7

-10.1

-11.5

Southern Miss.

North Texas

4.8

3.4

4.0

Western Kentucky

Army

-8.9

-8.0

-6.9

Florida Int’l.

Charlotte

7.8

7.0

7.6

Louisiana Tech

Massachusetts

29.6

27.4

30.4

Air Force

Fresno St.

0.9

1.7

1.2

Notre Dame

USC

16.8

14.3

16.6

Clemson

Florida St.

30.7

27.3

31.4

Iowa

Penn St.

-1.1

-2.0

-0.8

San Diego St.

Wyoming

3.3

3.1

2.7

FBS vs. FCS

Virginia Tech

Rhode Island

22.0

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

135.0

133.9

135.9

134.9

2

Alabama

135.7

132.2

136.4

134.7

3

Clemson

132.2

129.1

132.9

131.4

4

Georgia

128.6

126.9

129.1

128.2

5

L S U

128.0

125.6

127.4

127.0

6

Oklahoma

124.7

123.9

124.6

124.4

7

Penn St.

122.4

121.5

122.3

122.1

8

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.4

121.7

9

Notre Dame

121.1

119.3

121.2

120.5

10

Auburn

121.2

119.3

120.8

120.4

11

Wisconsin

120.5

120.1

120.5

120.4

12

Michigan

119.4

117.6

119.7

118.9

13

Utah

118.7

117.2

119.1

118.3

14

Iowa

118.4

116.5

118.6

117.8

15

Michigan St.

116.9

116.2

116.8

116.6

16

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

17

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

18

Texas A&M

116.9

115.3

115.4

115.9

19

Iowa St.

114.0

114.6

114.1

114.2

20

Mississippi St.

112.9

109.0

117.9

113.3

21

Texas

113.0

113.2

113.2

113.1

22

Baylor

112.7

112.9

112.4

112.7

23

Washington

112.2

111.8

113.2

112.4

24

South Carolina

112.3

110.6

112.0

111.6

25

Central Florida

111.2

110.3

112.1

111.2

26

Washington St.

110.9

109.9

111.0

110.6

27

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.6

110.0

28

Oklahoma St.

109.7

110.2

109.3

109.7

29

Arizona St.

108.4

107.8

109.3

108.5

30

Cincinnati

108.6

107.1

109.0

108.2

31

Virginia

107.8

108.0

107.9

107.9

32

Kansas St.

107.9

107.5

107.5

107.6

33

U S C

107.2

108.0

107.5

107.6

34

Duke

107.6

107.1

107.5

107.4

35

Maryland

107.8

107.3

107.0

107.4

36

Indiana

107.8

106.3

106.9

107.0

37

Boise St.

106.7

106.2

107.2

106.7

38

Northwestern

107.2

106.4

106.2

106.6

39

Syracuse

106.7

106.2

106.7

106.5

40

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

41

T C U

105.0

108.0

105.3

106.1

42

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

43

Stanford

106.1

105.3

105.9

105.8

44

Miami (Fla.)

105.8

105.0

106.4

105.7

45

Kentucky

106.6

105.0

105.0

105.5

46

Pittsburgh

105.5

105.2

105.6

105.4

47

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

48

Nebraska

105.0

106.0

104.6

105.2

49

Texas Tech

105.4

105.6

104.4

105.1

50

SMU

104.8

104.6

105.9

105.1

51

Appalachian St.

105.4

104.0

104.8

104.7

52

Wake Forest

104.7

104.2

105.3

104.7

53

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.7

104.7

54

Florida St.

104.5

104.8

104.5

104.6

55

West Virginia

104.6

104.1

104.0

104.2

56

Utah St.

104.3

103.1

105.3

104.2

57

Tennessee

104.7

104.5

103.0

104.1

58

Purdue

104.1

103.8

103.2

103.7

59

Arizona

102.6

102.8

102.8

102.7

60

Tulane

101.6

102.2

102.3

102.0

61

Temple

101.7

100.8

102.6

101.7

62

Virginia Tech

100.9

101.0

101.3

101.1

63

North Carolina St.

100.7

100.4

100.8

100.6

64

Louisiana

100.3

100.5

100.2

100.3

65

Boston College

100.2

100.0

100.5

100.2

66

Army

99.9

99.9

99.4

99.8

67

Houston

98.4

99.5

101.1

99.6

68

BYU

99.7

99.6

99.6

99.6

69

Hawaii

99.2

100.9

98.6

99.6

70

Fresno St.

99.2

99.8

99.6

99.5

71

Colorado

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

72

Vanderbilt

99.8

98.3

98.3

98.8

73

San Diego St.

98.2

100.0

98.1

98.8

74

Wyoming

97.8

99.9

98.4

98.7

75

Oregon St.

98.0

99.2

97.3

98.2

76

Western Michigan

98.5

97.4

98.2

98.0

77

Air Force

97.1

98.5

97.8

97.8

78

Arkansas

97.5

98.3

96.9

97.6

79

Louisville

96.4

96.2

95.9

96.1

80

Illinois

96.1

97.0

94.9

96.0

81

U C L A

96.4

96.1

95.4

96.0

82

Toledo

94.6

95.1

95.7

95.1

83

Southern Miss.

94.6

92.8

94.7

94.0

84

Kansas

93.6

94.6

93.4

93.9

85

Troy

94.0

94.2

92.9

93.7

86

Tulsa

93.1

93.8

94.1

93.7

87

Ohio

93.6

92.7

94.3

93.6

88

Georgia Southern

93.9

93.3

93.0

93.4

89

Georgia Tech

93.6

91.8

93.9

93.1

90

North Texas

92.8

92.4

93.7

93.0

91

Florida Atlantic

92.5

92.0

93.4

92.6

92

Northern Illinois

92.3

91.3

92.3

92.0

93

Navy

90.5

93.2

90.8

91.5

94

Louisiana Tech

91.2

91.0

91.1

91.1

95

Florida Int’l.

90.8

90.6

91.0

90.8

96

Arkansas St.

90.6

90.8

90.3

90.6

97

South Florida

89.5

90.5

89.7

89.9

98

Marshall

89.3

88.7

90.2

89.4

99

Middle Tennessee

89.5

88.5

89.6

89.2

100

Buffalo

88.7

89.1

89.7

89.1

101

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

102

Western Kentucky

88.0

89.0

89.6

88.8

103

U A B

87.8

89.6

88.5

88.7

104

Ball St.

88.7

88.2

88.6

88.5

105

Nevada

87.9

89.6

87.3

88.3

106

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

86.8

88.7

88.0

107

Louisiana-Monroe

87.7

88.5

87.5

87.9

108

Georgia St.

87.5

88.8

86.8

87.7

109

Kent St.

87.3

87.2

87.6

87.4

110

Coastal Carolina

86.7

87.9

86.1

86.9

111

Eastern Michigan

86.2

86.5

86.7

86.5

112

Charlotte

86.1

86.6

86.4

86.4

113

San Jose St.

85.3

87.4

84.8

85.8

114

Rutgers

86.1

85.7

85.2

85.7

115

Central Michigan

84.6

85.4

85.3

85.1

116

Texas St.

83.7

84.6

83.5

83.9

117

East Carolina

82.7

84.6

82.6

83.3

118

U N L V

82.3

84.1

81.9

82.8

119

New Mexico

81.8

84.6

80.7

82.4

120

Colorado St.

80.6

84.4

80.8

81.9

121

Rice

80.3

81.7

79.7

80.6

122

Old Dominion

78.3

78.8

78.4

78.5

123

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.1

74.5

75.4

125

South Alabama

74.1

77.0

73.4

74.9

126

Akron

73.8

74.1

73.0

73.6

127

Connecticut

72.0

75.9

70.6

72.8

128

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

129

U T E P

67.1

71.9

67.7

68.9

130

Massachusetts

64.6

66.6

63.7

65.0

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.2

110.3

112.1

111.2

1-1

4-2

Cincinnati

108.6

107.1

109.0

108.2

1-0

4-1

Temple

101.7

100.8

102.6

101.7

1-0

4-1

South Florida

89.5

90.5

89.7

89.9

1-1

2-3

East Carolina

82.7

84.6

82.6

83.3

0-2

3-3

Connecticut

72.0

75.9

70.6

72.8

0-2

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

1-0

5-0

SMU

104.8

104.6

105.9

105.1

2-0

6-0

Tulane

101.6

102.2

102.3

102.0

1-0

4-1

Houston

98.4

99.5

101.1

99.6

0-1

2-3

Tulsa

93.1

93.8

94.1

93.7

0-1

2-3

Navy

90.5

93.2

90.8

91.5

1-1

3-1

AAC Averages

96.6

97.3

97.2

97.0

 

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.2

129.1

132.9

131.4

3-0

5-0

Syracuse

106.7

106.2

106.7

106.5

0-1

3-2

Wake Forest

104.7

104.2

105.3

104.7

1-0

5-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.8

104.5

104.6

2-1

3-2

North Carolina St.

100.7

100.4

100.8

100.6

0-1

3-2

Boston College

100.2

100.0

100.5

100.2

1-2

3-3

Louisville

96.4

96.2

95.9

96.1

1-1

3-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.8

108.0

107.9

107.9

2-0

4-1

Duke

107.6

107.1

107.5

107.4

1-1

3-2

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

2-1

3-3

Miami (Fla.)

105.8

105.0

106.4

105.7

0-2

2-3

Pittsburgh

105.5

105.2

105.6

105.4

1-1

4-2

Virginia Tech

100.9

101.0

101.3

101.1

1-2

3-2

Georgia Tech

93.6

91.8

93.9

93.1

0-2

1-4

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

124.7

123.9

124.6

124.4

2-0

5-0

Iowa St.

114.0

114.6

114.1

114.2

1-1

3-2

Texas

113.0

113.2

113.2

113.1

2-0

4-1

Baylor

112.7

112.9

112.4

112.7

2-0

5-0

Oklahoma St.

109.7

110.2

109.3

109.7

1-2

4-2

Kansas St.

107.9

107.5

107.5

107.6

0-2

3-2

T C U

105.0

108.0

105.3

106.1

1-1

3-2

Texas Tech

105.4

105.6

104.4

105.1

1-1

3-2

West Virginia

104.6

104.1

104.0

104.2

1-1

3-2

Kansas

93.6

94.6

93.4

93.9

0-3

2-4

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.8

109.1

 

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

135.0

133.9

135.9

134.9

3-0

6-0

Penn St.

122.4

121.5

122.3

122.1

2-0

5-0

Michigan

119.4

117.6

119.7

118.9

2-1

4-1

Michigan St.

116.9

116.2

116.8

116.6

2-1

4-2

Maryland

107.8

107.3

107.0

107.4

1-1

3-2

Indiana

107.8

106.3

106.9

107.0

0-2

3-2

Rutgers

86.1

85.7

85.2

85.7

0-3

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.1

120.5

120.4

2-0

5-0

Iowa

118.4

116.5

118.6

117.8

1-1

4-1

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.6

110.0

2-0

5-0

Northwestern

107.2

106.4

106.2

106.6

0-3

1-4

Nebraska

105.0

106.0

104.6

105.2

2-1

4-2

Purdue

104.1

103.8

103.2

103.7

0-2

1-4

Illinois

96.1

97.0

94.9

96.0

0-2

2-3

Big Ten Averages

111.2

110.6

110.8

110.9

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

92.5

92.0

93.4

92.6

1-0

3-2

Florida Int’l.

90.8

90.6

91.0

90.8

0-2

2-3

Marshall

89.3

88.7

90.2

89.4

0-1

2-3

Middle Tennessee

89.5

88.5

89.6

89.2

1-0

2-3

Western Kentucky

88.0

89.0

89.6

88.8

3-0

3-2

Charlotte

86.1

86.6

86.4

86.4

0-1

2-3

Old Dominion

78.3

78.8

78.4

78.5

0-1

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.6

92.8

94.7

94.0

1-0

3-2

North Texas

92.8

92.4

93.7

93.0

1-0

2-3

Louisiana Tech

91.2

91.0

91.1

91.1

2-0

4-1

U A B

87.8

89.6

88.5

88.7

1-1

4-1

Rice

80.3

81.7

79.7

80.6

0-2

0-6

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.1

74.5

75.4

1-1

2-3

U T E P

67.1

71.9

67.7

68.9

0-2

1-4

CUSA Averages

85.9

86.5

86.3

86.2

 

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.1

119.3

121.2

120.5

x

4-1

Army

99.9

99.9

99.4

99.8

x

3-2

BYU

99.7

99.6

99.6

99.6

x

2-3

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

x

4-2

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

x

0-6

Massachusetts

64.6

66.6

63.7

65.0

x

1-5

Indep. Averages

91.9

92.5

91.7

92.0

 

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.6

92.7

94.3

93.6

1-0

2-3

Buffalo

88.7

89.1

89.7

89.1

0-2

2-4

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

86.8

88.7

88.0

1-0

2-3

Kent St.

87.3

87.2

87.6

87.4

1-0

2-3

Akron

73.8

74.1

73.0

73.6

0-1

0-5

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

0-1

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.5

97.4

98.2

98.0

1-1

3-3

Toledo

94.6

95.1

95.7

95.1

1-0

4-1

Northern Illinois

92.3

91.3

92.3

92.0

0-1

1-4

Ball St.

88.7

88.2

88.6

88.5

1-0

2-3

Eastern Michigan

86.2

86.5

86.7

86.5

0-1

3-2

Central Michigan

84.6

85.4

85.3

85.1

2-1

3-3

MAC Averages

87.4

87.1

87.7

87.4

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.7

106.2

107.2

106.7

2-0

5-0

Utah St.

104.3

103.1

105.3

104.2

2-0

3-2

Wyoming

97.8

99.9

98.4

98.7

1-0

4-1

Air Force

97.1

98.5

97.8

97.8

1-1

3-2

New Mexico

81.8

84.6

80.7

82.4

0-1

2-3

Colorado St.

80.6

84.4

80.8

81.9

0-2

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Hawaii

99.2

100.9

98.6

99.6

1-0

4-1

Fresno St.

99.2

99.8

99.6

99.5

0-0

2-2

San Diego St.

98.2

100.0

98.1

98.8

1-1

4-1

Nevada

87.9

89.6

87.3

88.3

0-1

3-2

San Jose St.

85.3

87.4

84.8

85.8

1-1

3-2

U N L V

82.3

84.1

81.9

82.8

0-2

1-4

MWC Averages

93.4

94.9

93.4

93.9

 

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

2-0

4-1

Washington

112.2

111.8

113.2

112.4

1-2

4-2

Washington St.

110.9

109.9

111.0

110.6

0-2

3-2

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

1-2

4-2

Stanford

106.1

105.3

105.9

105.8

2-2

3-3

Oregon St.

98.0

99.2

97.3

98.2

1-1

2-3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

118.7

117.2

119.1

118.3

1-1

4-1

Arizona St.

108.4

107.8

109.3

108.5

1-1

4-1

U S C

107.2

108.0

107.5

107.6

2-1

3-2

Arizona

102.6

102.8

102.8

102.7

2-0

4-1

Colorado

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

1-1

3-2

U C L A

96.4

96.1

95.4

96.0

1-2

1-5

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

128.6

126.9

129.1

128.2

2-0

5-0

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.4

121.7

4-0

6-0

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

1-0

4-1

South Carolina

112.3

110.6

112.0

111.6

1-2

2-3

Kentucky

106.6

105.0

105.0

105.5

0-3

2-3

Tennessee

104.7

104.5

103.0

104.1

0-2

1-4

Vanderbilt

99.8

98.3

98.3

98.8

0-3

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.7

132.2

136.4

134.7

2-0

5-0

L S U

128.0

125.6

127.4

127.0

1-0

5-0

Auburn

121.2

119.3

120.8

120.4

2-1

5-1

Texas A&M

116.9

115.3

115.4

115.9

1-1

3-2

Mississippi St.

112.9

109.0

117.9

113.3

1-1

3-2

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.7

104.7

2-1

3-3

Arkansas

97.5

98.3

96.9

97.6

0-2

2-3

SEC Averages

114.9

113.1

114.7

114.2

 

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.4

104.0

104.8

104.7

1-0

4-0

Troy

94.0

94.2

92.9

93.7

0-1

2-3

Georgia Southern

93.9

93.3

93.0

93.4

1-1

2-3

Georgia St.

87.5

88.8

86.8

87.7

1-1

3-2

Coastal Carolina

86.7

87.9

86.1

86.9

0-1

3-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.3

100.5

100.2

100.3

1-0

4-1

Arkansas St.

90.6

90.8

90.3

90.6

1-1

3-3

Louisiana-Monroe

87.7

88.5

87.5

87.9

1-0

2-3

Texas St.

83.7

84.6

83.5

83.9

1-0

2-3

South Alabama

74.1

77.0

73.4

74.9

0-2

1-5

SBC Averages

90.4

91.0

89.9

90.4

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

114.2

2

BTen

110.9

3

B12

109.1

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.1

6

AAC

97.0

7

MWC

93.9

8

Ind

92.0

9

SUN

90.4

10

MAC

87.4

11

CUSA

86.2

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

Cincinnati

5

Hawaii

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

The What-if It Were To Happen Edition

 

Submitted for your disapproval, what happens if Clemson loses a game this year to say Florida State, North Carolina St., South Carolina, or Virginia in the ACC Championship Game?  With their weak schedule, the Tigers would most likely not receive a bid to the NCAA Playoffs.

 

The Pac-12 has already eliminated itself from consideration.  We won’t even give Oregon a chance at 11-1, unless a lot of teams fall victims to upsets–too many to contemplate.

 

The Big Ten has three incredible teams in Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Additionally, Minnesota is still undefeated, and Michigan is, well, Michigan.  More than likely one Big Ten team will run the table and finish 13-0 to guarantee a spot in the Playoffs.  There could be a one-loss team in consideration, but with power at the top, it is possible that there will be only an undefeated or one loss team and multiple two-loss teams.

 

In the Big 12, Oklahoma always tends to slip up against somebody but then recovers to win the Big 12 Championship Game.  If the Sooners were to lose to Texas, Baylor, or Iowa State, or if they lost in the Big 12 Championship Game, would a one-loss OU team be good enough to make the top four?

 

Now consider the giant.  Let’s say Alabama, LSU, and Georgia combine to have one undefeated team and two, one-loss teams.  Say, Alabama goes 12-0 and wins the SEC Championship Game over 12-0 Georgia, while LSU only loses at Alabama in a close game to have a record of 11-1.

 

Could it be that THREE SEC teams would finish ranked in the top 4?  That’s the scenario we present today in our bowl and playoff projections.  We are not saying this is a certainty; we just wanted to show you how it might play out if Alabama, Georgia, and LSU finished ranked in the top 4.

 

You may ask if any conference has ever had three of the top four teams in a season, and not only will we answer, we’ll go one better.  In 1971, Nebraska finished number one; Oklahoma was number two; and Colorado was number three, all from the old Big 8 Conference.  It almost happened in 2011, when Alabama finished number one, LSU number two, and Arkansas number five.   That Arkansas team lost to just Alabama and LSU that year. 

 

Take a look at how this plays out.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Wyoming]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Troy

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Tulane

Independence

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Maryland

Military

ACC

AAC

Syracuse

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Nebraska

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Ole Miss

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Utah

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Colorado

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Wake Forest

Baylor

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

Notre Dame

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

West Virginia

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona

Michigan St.

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Army]

Florida St.

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Clemson

Wisconsin

Belk

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

North Carolina St.

Washington

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Texas Tech

[Arkansas St.]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

Fresno St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas

Arizona St.

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Virginia

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Florida

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Kansas St.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Mississippi St.

Michigan

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Indiana

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio

Appalachian St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Georgia

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

LSU

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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